Science.gov

Sample records for a2 scenario results

  1. Final report: Task 4a.2 20% wind scenario assessment of electric grid operational features

    SciTech Connect

    Toole, Gasper L.

    2009-01-01

    Wind integration modeling in electricity generation capacity expansion models is important in that these models are often used to inform political or managerial decisions. Poor representation of wind technology leads to under-estimation of wind's contribution to future energy scenarios which may hamper growth of the industry. The NREL's Wind Energy Deployment System (WinDS) model provides the most detailed representation of geographically disperse renewable resources and the optimization of transmission expansion to access these resources. Because WinDS was selected as the primary modeling tool for the 20% Wind Energy by 2030 study, it is the ideal tool for supplemental studies of the transmission expansion results. However, as the wind industry grows and knowledge related to the wind resource and integration of wind energy into the electric system develops, the WinDS model must be continually improved through additional data and innovative algorithms to capture the primary effects of variable wind generation. The detailed representation of wind technology in the WinDS model can be used to provide improvements to the simplified representation of wind technology in other capacity expansion models. This task did not employ the WinDS model, but builds from it and its results. Task 4a.2 provides an assessment of the electric grid operational features of the 20% Wind scenario and was conducted using power flow models accepted by the utility industry. Tasks 2 provides information regarding the physical flow of electricity on the electric grid which is a critical aspect of infrastructure expansion scenarios. Expanding transmission infrastructure to access remote wind resource in a physically realizable way is essential to achieving 20% wind energy by 2030.

  2. Preliminary forecasts of Pacific bigeye tuna population trends under the A2 IPCC scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lehodey, P.; Senina, I.; Sibert, J.; Bopp, L.; Calmettes, B.; Hampton, J.; Murtugudde, R.

    2010-07-01

    An improved version of the spatial ecosystem and population dynamics model SEAPODYM was used to investigate the potential impacts of global warming on tuna populations. The model included an enhanced definition of habitat indices, movements, and accessibility of tuna predators to different vertically migrant and non-migrant micronekton functional groups. The simulations covered the Pacific basin (model domain) at a 2° × 2° geographic resolution. The structure of the model allows an evaluation from multiple data sources, and parameterization can be optimized by adjoint techniques and maximum likelihood using fishing data. A first such optimized parameterization was obtained for bigeye tuna ( Thunnus obesus) in the Pacific Ocean using historical catch data for the last 50 years and a hindcast from a coupled physical-biogeochemical model driven by the NCEP atmospheric reanalysis. The parameterization provided very plausible biological parameter values and a good fit to fishing data from the different fisheries, both within and outside the time period used for optimization. We then employed this model to forecast the future of bigeye tuna populations in the Pacific Ocean. The simulation was driven by the physical-biogeochemical fields predicted from a global marine biogeochemistry - climate simulation. This global simulation was performed with the IPSL climate model version 4 (IPSL-CM4) coupled to the oceanic biogeochemical model PISCES and forced by atmospheric CO 2, from historical records over 1860-2000, and under the SRES A2 IPCC scenario for the 21st century (i.e. atmospheric CO 2 concentration reaching 850 ppm in the year 2100). Potential future changes in distribution and abundance under the IPCC scenario are presented but without taking into account any fishing effort. The simulation showed an improvement in bigeye tuna spawning habitat both in subtropical latitudes and in the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP) where the surface temperature becomes optimal for

  3. Ground surface temperature scenarios in complex high-mountain topography based on regional climate model results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salzmann, Nadine; NöTzli, Jeannette; Hauck, Christian; Gruber, Stephan; Hoelzle, Martin; Haeberli, Wilfried

    2007-06-01

    Climate change can have severe impacts on the high-mountain cryosphere, such as instabilities in rock walls induced by thawing permafrost. Relating climate change scenarios produced from global climate models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs) to complex high-mountain environments is a challenging task. The qualitative and quantitative impact of changes in climatic conditions on local to microscale ground surface temperature (GST) and the ground thermal regime is not readily apparent. This study assesses a possible range of changes in the GST (ΔGST) in complex mountain topography. To account for uncertainties associated with RCM output, a set of 12 different scenario climate time series (including 10 RCM-based and 2 incremental scenarios) was applied to the topography and energy balance (TEBAL) model to simulate average ΔGST for 36 different topographic situations. Variability of the simulated ΔGST is related primarily to the emission scenarios, the RCM, and the approach used to apply RCM results to the impact model. In terms of topography, significant influence on GST simulation was shown by aspect because it modifies the received amount of solar radiation at the surface. North faces showed higher sensitivity to the applied climate scenarios, while uncertainties are higher for south faces. On the basis of the results of this study, use of RCM-based scenarios is recommended for mountain permafrost impact studies, as opposed to incremental scenarios.

  4. Hamburg 2K: Climate modeling and downscaling for Hamburg, Germany under a 2 K global warming scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Flagg, D. D.; Grawe, D.; Daneke, C.; Hoffmann, P.; Jacob, D.; Kirschner, P.; Kriegsmann, A.; Linde, M.; Mayer, B.; O'Driscoll, K. T.; Pohlmann, T.; Schlünzen, K. H.; Schoetter, R.; Teichert, W.; Zorita, E.

    2011-12-01

    The European Union has established a 2 K warming of average annual global surface temperature above pre-industrial levels as a target to avoid disruptive climate change. The Hamburg 2K project seeks to model the climate of Hamburg, Germany subject to this target warming by the end of the 21st century. A general circulation model (ECHAM5) with a greenhouse gas scenario consistent with this target (E1) provides a source for dynamical and statistical-dynamical model downscaling at the regional scale, using the Regional Model (REMO), and at the mesoscale, using the Mesoscale Transport and fluid (Stream) Model (METRAS). Regional scale model estimates provide forcing for off-line modeling of the North Sea circulation with the Hamburg Shelf-Ocean Model (HAMSOM). This presentation concentrates on the urban climate component of the 2K scenario. The approach quantifies the projected change in both the meteorology and the urban development. The modeling strategy allows for a discrete diagnosis of each contribution. For the meteorology, the project identifies an urban climate change signal between the late 20th and late 21st centuries using a statistical-dynamical downscaling technique. Cluster analysis of multiple REMO realizations generates a series of archetypical synoptic conditions, a.k.a., weather types. The frequency change of these weather types between present and future climate yields a climate change signal. The potential for distinctively new weather types in the future climate is also investigated. Regional weather types provide the forcing for simulations with METRAS at 1 km resolution. These simulations provide further assessment of urban climate change at a scale more sensitive to the heterogeneous urban surface. Some initial METRAS modeling results will be presented here. For the urban development, the METRAS model simulations benefit from a detailed surface cover map including over 50 classes of natural and artificial surfaces tailored specifically for

  5. The role of renewable energy in climate stabilization: results from the EMF 27 scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Luderer, Gunnar; Krey, Volker; Calvin, Katherine V.; Merrick, James; Mima, Silvana; Pietzcker, Robert; Van Vliet, Jasper; Wada, Kenichi

    2013-10-15

    This paper uses the EMF27 scenarios to explore the role of renewable energy (RE) in climate change mitigation. Currently RE supplies almost 20 % of global electricity demand. Almost all EMF27 mitigation scenarios show a strong increase in renewable power production, with a substantial ramp-up of wind and solar power deployment. In many scenarios, renewables are the most important long-term mitigation option for power supply. Wind energy is competitive even without climate policy, whereas the prospects of solar photovoltaics (PV) are highly contingent on the ambitiousness of climate policy. Bioenergy is an important and versatile energy carrier; however—with the exception of low temperature heat—there is less scope for renewables other than biomass for non-electric energy supply. Despite the important role of wind and solar power in climate change mitigation scenarios with full technology availability, limiting their deployment has a relatively small effect on mitigation costs, if nuclear and carbon capture and storage (CCS)—which can serve as substitutes in low-carbon power supply—are available. Limited bioenergy availability in combination with limited wind and solar power by contrast, results in a more substantial increase in mitigation costs. While a number of robust insights emerge, the results on renewable energy deployment levels vary considerably across the models. An in-depth analysis of a subset of EMF27 reveals substantial differences in modeling approaches and parameter assumptions. To a certain degree, differences in model results can be attributed to different assumptions about technology costs, resource potentials and systems integration.

  6. Future Arctic temperature change resulting from a range of aerosol emissions scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wobus, Cameron; Flanner, Mark; Sarofim, Marcus C.; Moura, Maria Cecilia P.; Smith, Steven J.

    2016-06-01

    The Arctic temperature response to emissions of aerosols -- specifically black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), and sulfate -- depends on both the sector and the region where these emissions originate. Thus, the net Arctic temperature response to global aerosol emissions reductions will depend strongly on the blend of emissions sources being targeted. We use recently published equilibrium Arctic temperature response factors for BC, OC, and sulfate to estimate the range of present-day and future Arctic temperature changes from seven different aerosol emissions scenarios. Globally, Arctic temperature changes calculated from all of these emissions scenarios indicate that present-day emissions from the domestic and transportation sectors generate the majority of present-day Arctic warming from BC. However, in all of these scenarios, this warming is more than offset by cooling resulting from SO2 emissions from the energy sector. Thus, long-term climate mitigation strategies that are focused on reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the energy sector could generate short-term, aerosol-induced Arctic warming. A properly phased approach that targets BC-rich emissions from the transportation sector as well as the domestic sectors in key regions -- while simultaneously working toward longer-term goals of CO2 mitigation -- could potentially avoid some amount of short-term Arctic warming.

  7. Potential dose distributions at proposed surface radioactvity clearance levels resulting from occupational scenarios.

    SciTech Connect

    Kamboj, S.; Yu, C.; Rabovsky, J.

    2011-08-02

    The purpose of this report is to evaluate the potential dose distribution resulting from surface radioactivity, using occupational radiation exposure scenarios. The surface radioactivity clearance values considered in this analysis may ultimately replace those currently specified in the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) requirements and guidance for radiological protection of workers, the public and the environment. The surface contamination values apply to radioactive contamination deposited on a surface (i.e., not incorporated into the interior of the material). For these calculations, the dose coefficients for intake of radionuclides were taken from ICRP Publication 68 (ICRP 1994), and external exposure dose coefficients were taken from the compact disc (CD) that accompanied Federal Guidance Report (FGR) 13 (Eckerman et al. 1999). The ICRP Publication 68 dose coefficients were based on ICRP Publication 60 (ICRP 1990) and were used specifically for worker dose calculations. The calculated dose in this analysis is the 'effective dose' (ED), rather than the 'effective dose equivalent' (EDE).

  8. On the rapid and efficient divulgation of monitoring results in landslide emergency scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giordan, Daniele; Allasia, Paolo; Manconi, Andrea; Bertolo, Davide

    2014-05-01

    In last decades, the availability of several technological systems to monitor different physical parameters that can be used to control a landslide evolution recorded an exponential growth. In particular, surficial and deep-seated displacements of an instable area, as well as meteorological or hydrological parameters can be nowadays acquired with high spatial and temporal resolutions. As a consequence, the application of complex monitoring systems produces large amounts of data. While this can be considered an important progress in the field of landslide monitoring applications, the availability of large volumes of high resolution and multiparametric information implies important challenges. In this context, two main criticalities are: i) the integrated management of dataset produced by different monitoring systems and ii) the correct divulgation of monitoring results. In this work, we present the results of a real case-study relevant to a complex emergency scenario, i.e. the Mont de La Saxe landslide, a large rockslide (with an estimated volume or more than 8 million of cubic meters) that threatens La Palud and Entrèves hamlets in the Courmayeur municipality (Aosta Valley, Italy). We developed a web-based system based on the ADVICE algorithm (Allasia et al., 2013) in order to manage several data sources. The system collects, analyzes and publishes the results obtained by monitoring instrumentations in near-real-time at each new measurement cycle. Moreover, by collecting all the data in an unique web-based platform reduces the problems of compatibility amongst different monitoring systems, which usually rely on customized software for the data processing, delaying the comparative analysis comparison amongst different data sources. This is indeed a crucial task for decision makers, in particular during the emergency phases. In addition, by using the developed web-based platform we aimed at coping with another important task, often not considered and

  9. Data Assimilation Techniques for Ionospheric Reference Scenarios - project overview and first results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gerzen, Tatjana; Mainul Hoque, M.; Wilken, Volker; Minkwitz, David; Schlüter, Stefan

    2015-04-01

    The European Geostationary Navigation Overlay Service (EGNOS) is the European Satellite Based Augmentation Service (SBAS) that provides value added services, in particular to Safety of Live (SoL) users of the Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). In the frame of the European GNSS Evolution Programme (EGEP), ESA has launched several activities, which are aiming to support the design, development and qualification of the future operational EGNOS infrastructure and associated services. The ionosphere is the part of the upper Earth's atmosphere between about 50 km and 1000 km above the Earth's surface, which contains sufficient free electrons to cause strong impact on radio signal propagation. Therefore, treatment of the ionosphere is a critical issue to guarantee the EGNOS system performance. In order to conduct the EGNOS end-to-end performance simulations and to assure the capability for maintaining integrity of the EGNOS system especially during ionospheric storm conditions, Ionospheric Reference Scenarios (IRSs) are introduced by ESA. The project Data Assimilation Techniques for Ionospheric Reference Scenarios (DAIS) - aims to generate improved EGNOS IRSs by combining space borne and ground based GNSS observations. The main focus of this project is to demonstrate that ionospheric radio occultation (IRO) measurements can significantly contribute to fill data gaps in GNSS ground networks (particularly in Africa and over the oceans) when generating the IRSs. The primary tasks are the calculation and validation of time series of IRSs (i.e. TEC maps) by a 3D assimilation approach that combines IRO and ground based GNSS measurements with an ionospheric background model in an optimal way. In the first phase of the project we selected appropriate test periods, one presenting perturbed and the other one - nominal ionospheric conditions, collected and filtered the corresponding data. We defined and developed an applicable technique for the 3D assimilation and applied

  10. SCENARIOS FOR MEETING CALIFORNIA'S 2050 CLIMATE GOALS California's Carbon Challenge Phase II Volume I: Non-Electricity Sectors and Overall Scenario Results

    SciTech Connect

    Wei, Max; Greenblatt, Jeffrey; Donovan, Sally; Nelson, James; Mileva, Ana; Johnston, Josiah; Kammen, Daniel

    2014-06-01

    This study provides an updated analysis of long-term energy system scenarios for California consistent with the State meeting its 2050 climate goal, including detailed analysis and assessment of electricity system build-out, operation, and costs across the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) region. Four key elements are found to be critical for the State to achieve its 2050 goal of 80 percent greenhouse (GHG) reductions from the 1990 level: aggressive energy efficiency; clean electricity; widespread electrification of passenger vehicles, building heating, and industry heating; and large-scale production of low-carbon footprint biofuels to largely replace petroleum-based liquid fuels. The approach taken here is that technically achievable energy efficiency measures are assumed to be achieved by 2050 and aggregated with the other key elements mentioned above to estimate resultant emissions in 2050. The energy and non-energy sectors are each assumed to have the objective of meeting an 80 percent reduction from their respective 1990 GHG levels for the purposes of analysis. A different partitioning of energy and non-energy sector GHG greenhouse reductions is allowed if emission reductions in one sector are more economic or technically achievable than in the other. Similarly, within the energy or non-energy sectors, greater or less than 80 percent reduction from 1990 is allowed for sub-sectors within the energy or non-energy sectors as long as the overall target is achieved. Overall emissions for the key economy-wide scenarios are considered in this report. All scenarios are compliant or nearly compliant with the 2050 goal. This finding suggests that multiple technical pathways exist to achieve the target with aggressive policy support and continued technology development of largely existing technologies.

  11. Testing the hot-flasher scenario with asteroseismological tools. First Results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miller Bertolami, M. M.; Córsico, A. H.; Althaus, L. G.

    2010-11-01

    A core helium flash after the departure from the red giant branch (i.e. "hot-flasher scenario") offers one of the most promising explanations for the origin of He-sdO stars. Recently, Miller Bertolami et al. (2008) have shown that many surface properties of H-deficient sdO stars (the He-sdO stars) could be explained through this scenario if chemical diffusion is taken into account. In this context the He-sdO stars formed during a hot-flasher event would transform into H-rich hot-sdB stars (33000-38000 K) as a consequence of diffusion of the remaining H towards the surface of the star. Thus, some hot sdBs might be the descendants of He-sdO stars that have previously burnt most of their H-content and, thus, a very thin H envelope should be expected (10-9 to 10-10 M⊙, see Miller Bertolami et al. 2008 for details). Interestingly enough, the location of these sdB stars in the logg - Teff diagram should overlap with the domain of the rapidly pulsating (p-mode) EC 14026 stars. This fact opens the interesting possibility of employing asteroseismology to investigate the existence of hot-sdB stars characterized by such very thin H envelopes. In this preliminary investigation, we explore the sensitivity of the acoustic pulsation spectrum of EC 14026 stars to the thickness of the H envelope. The pulsation analysis presented in this work was performed with the help of the adiabatic radial and nonradial pulsation code employed by our group in numerous asteroseismological studies of white dwarfs and pre-white dwarfs (see Córsico et al. 2008 and references therein). The stellar models adopted in the present study where extracted from the 0.48150 M⊙ (Z= 0.001) sequence of Miller Bertolami et al. (2008). Given the exploratory nature of this work, in order to analyze the effects of different thicknesses of the H-rich envelope on the pulsation spectrum of sdB stars we have artificially added a H-rich envelope in the outermost layers of our initial model. We have considered four

  12. Discrepant Results in a 2-D Marble Collision

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kalajian, Peter

    2013-03-01

    Video analysis of 2-D collisions is an excellent way to investigate conservation of linear momentum. The often-desired experimental design goal is to minimize the momentum loss in order to demonstrate the conservation law. An air table with colliding pucks is an ideal medium for this experiment, but such equipment is beyond the budget of many schools. Substituting marbles on a table for air pucks introduces angular momentum and sliding friction so that simple video analysis will demonstrate that linear momentum is not conserved.1,2 Nevertheless, these labs offer students insights into the real-world application of physics. During a recent classroom trial, an unexpected result forced my students to think creatively and critically about what happened in the experiment.

  13. Integrating Climate Change Scenarios and Co-developed Policy Scenarios to Inform Coastal Adaptation: Results from a Tillamook County, Oregon Knowledge to Action Network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lipiec, E.; Ruggiero, P.; Serafin, K.; Bolte, J.; Mills, A.; Corcoran, P.; Stevenson, J.; Lach, D.

    2014-12-01

    Local decision-makers often lack both the information and tools to reduce their community's overall vulnerability to current and future climate change impacts. Managers are restricted in their actions by the scale of the problem, inherent scientific uncertainty, limits of information exchange, and the global nature of available data, rendering place-based strategies difficult to generate. Several U.S. Pacific Northwest coastal communities are already experiencing chronic erosion and flooding, hazards only to be exacerbated by sea level rise and changing patterns of storminess associated with climate change. To address these issues, a knowledge to action network (KTAN) consisting of local Tillamook County stakeholders and Oregon State University researchers, was formed to project future flooding and erosion impacts and determine possible adaptation policies to reduce vulnerability. Via an iterative scenario planning process, the KTAN has developed four distinct adaptation policy scenarios, including 'Status Quo', 'Hold The Line', 'ReAlign', and 'Laissez-Faire'. These policy scenarios are being integrated with a range of climate change scenarios within the modeling framework Envision, a multi-agent GIS-based tool, which allows for the combination of physical processes data, probabilistic climate change information, coastal flood and erosion models, and stakeholder driven adaptation strategies into distinct plausible future scenarios. Because exact physical and social responses to climate change are impossible to ascertain, information about the differences between possible future scenarios can provide valuable information to decision-makers and the community at large. For example, the fewest projected coastal flood and erosion impacts to buildings occur under the 'ReAlign' policy scenario (i.e., adaptation strategies that move dwellings away from the coast) under both low and high climate change scenarios, especially in comparison to the 'Status Quo' or 'Hold The

  14. Linking populations to landscapes: richness scenarios resulting from changes in the dynamics of an ecosystem engineer.

    PubMed

    Wright, Justin P

    2009-12-01

    Predicting the effects of the loss of individual species on diversity represents one of the primary challenges facing community ecology. One pathway by which organisms of one species affect the distribution of species is ecosystem engineering. Changes in the dynamics of ecosystem engineers that lead to changes in the distribution of the patches of altered habitat are likely to lead to changes in diversity. I link data on the distribution of plant species found in the riparian zone of the Adirondacks (New York, USA) in patches modified by beaver and in unmodified forest patches to a model connecting the dynamics of ecosystem engineers to the dynamics of the patches that they create. These analyses demonstrate that changes in key parameters of the model, such as decreases in beaver colonization rates and rate of patch abandonment, lead to changes in species richness of up to 45% at the landscape scale, and that these changes are likely to occur over long time scales. This general approach of linking the population dynamics or behavior of a single species to changes in species richness at the landscape scale provides a means for both testing the importance of ecosystem engineering in different systems and developing scenarios to predict how changes in the dynamics of a single species are likely to affect species richness. PMID:20120810

  15. Evolution of Fuel-Air and Contaminant Clouds Resulting from a Cruise Missile Explosion Scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Grossman, A S; Kul, A L

    2005-06-22

    A low-mach-number hydrodynamics model has been used to simulate the evolution of a fuel-air mixture and contaminant cloud resulting from the detonation of a cruise missile. The detonation has been assumed to be non-nuclear. The cloud evolution has been carried out to a time of 5.5 seconds. At this time the contaminant has completely permeated the initial fuel-air mixture cloud.

  16. Steady-State Operation Scenario and the First Experimental Result on QUEST

    SciTech Connect

    Hanada, K; Peng, Yueng Kay Martin

    2010-01-01

    QUEST focuses on the steady state operation of the spherical tokamak by controlled PWI and electron Bernstein wave current drive. One of the main purposes of QUEST is an achievement of long duration discharge with MW-class injected power. As the result, QUEST should be operated in the challenging region on heat and particle handling. To do the particle handling, high temperature all metal wall up to 623 K and closed divertors are planned, which is to realize the steady-state operation under recycling ratio, R = 1. This is a dispensable check to DEMO, because wall pumping should be avoided as possible in the view of tritium retention. The QUEST project will be developed in increment step such as, I. low steady state operation in limiter configuration, II. low steady state operation in divertor configuration, III. relatively high steady state operation in closed divertor configuration. Phase I in the project corresponds to these two years, and final goal of phase I is to make full current drive plasma up to 20 kA. Closed divertor will be designed and tested in the Phase II. QUEST is running from Oct., 2008 and the first results are introduced.

  17. Future climate scenarios for a coastal productive planktonic food web resulting in microplankton phenology changes and decreased trophic transfer efficiency.

    PubMed

    Calbet, Albert; Sazhin, Andrey F; Nejstgaard, Jens C; Berger, Stella A; Tait, Zachary S; Olmos, Lorena; Sousoni, Despoina; Isari, Stamatina; Martínez, Rodrigo A; Bouquet, Jean-Marie; Thompson, Eric M; Båmstedt, Ulf; Jakobsen, Hans H

    2014-01-01

    We studied the effects of future climate change scenarios on plankton communities of a Norwegian fjord using a mesocosm approach. After the spring bloom, natural plankton were enclosed and treated in duplicates with inorganic nutrients elevated to pre-bloom conditions (N, P, Si; eutrophication), lowering of 0.4 pH units (acidification), and rising 3°C temperature (warming). All nutrient-amended treatments resulted in phytoplankton blooms dominated by chain-forming diatoms, and reached 13-16 μg chlorophyll (chl) a l-1. In the control mesocosms, chl a remained below 1 μg l-1. Acidification and warming had contrasting effects on the phenology and bloom-dynamics of autotrophic and heterotrophic microplankton. Bacillariophyceae, prymnesiophyceae, cryptophyta, and Protoperidinium spp. peaked earlier at higher temperature and lower pH. Chlorophyta showed lower peak abundances with acidification, but higher peak abundances with increased temperature. The peak magnitude of autotrophic dinophyceae and ciliates was, on the other hand, lowered with combined warming and acidification. Over time, the plankton communities shifted from autotrophic phytoplankton blooms to a more heterotrophic system in all mesocosms, especially in the control unaltered mesocosms. The development of mass balance and proportion of heterotrophic/autotrophic biomass predict a shift towards a more autotrophic community and less-efficient food web transfer when temperature, nutrients and acidification are combined in a future climate-change scenario. We suggest that this result may be related to a lower food quality for microzooplankton under acidification and warming scenarios and to an increase of catabolic processes compared to anabolic ones at higher temperatures. PMID:24721992

  18. Downscaling of sea level and fluxes in the Malacca and Singapore Straits using A2 scenario projections of AR4 GCMs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tkalich, Pavel; Koshebutsky, Volodymyr; Maderich, Vladimir; Thompson, Bijoy

    2013-04-01

    IPCC-coordinated work has been completed within Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) to project climate and ocean variables for the 21st century using coupled atmospheric-ocean General Circulation Models (GCMs). Resolution of the GCMs is not sufficient to resolve local features of narrow Malacca and Singapore Straits, having complex coastal line and bathymetry; therefore, dynamical downscaling of ocean variables from the global grid to the regional scale is advisable using ocean models, such as Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). ROMS is customized for the domain centered on the Singapore and Malacca Straits, extending from 98°E to 109°E and 6°S to 14°N. Following IPCC methodology, the modelling is done for the past reference period 1961-1990, and then for the 21st century projections; subsequently, established past and projected trends and variability of ocean parameters are inter-compared. Boundary conditions for the past reference period are extracted from Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA), while the projections are made using A2 scenario runs of ECHAM5 and CCSM3 GCMs. Atmospheric forcing for ROMS is downscaled with WRF using ERA-40 dataset for the past period, and outputs of atmospheric variables of respective GCMs for the projections. ROMS-downscaled regional sea level change during 1961-1990, corrected for the global thermosteric effect, land-ice melting and Global Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) effect, corresponds to a mean total trend of 1.52 mm/year, which is higher than the global estimate 1.25 mm/year and observed global sea-level rise (1.44 mm/year) for the same period. Local linear trend in the Singapore Strait (0.9 mm/year) corresponds to the observed trend at Victoria Dock tide gauge (1.1 mm/year) for the past period. Mean discharges through the Karimata, Malacca and Singapore Straits are 0.9, 0.21 and 0.12 Sv, respectively, fall in the range of observations and recent model estimates. A2 scenario projections using ROMS-ECHAM5 and ROMS-CCSM3 for

  19. Projected SST trends across the Caribbean Sea based on PRECIS downscaling of ECHAM4, under the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nurse, Leonard A.; Charlery, John L.

    2016-01-01

    The Caribbean Sea and adjacent land areas are highly sensitive to the projected impacts of global climate change. The countries bordering the Caribbean Sea depend heavily on coastal and marine assets as a major source of livelihood support. Rising sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are known to be associated with coral bleaching, ocean acidification, and other phenomena that threaten livelihoods in the region. The paucity of SST systematic observations in both the Caribbean Sea and adjoining Western Atlantic waters is a limiting factor in the projection of future climate change impacts on the region's marine resources. Remote sensing of SST by satellites began only within the last three decades and although the data collected so far might be insufficient to provide conclusive definitions of long-term SST variations in the Caribbean waters, these data along with the output from climate model simulations provide a useful basis for gaining further insights into plausible SST futures under IPCC SRES scenarios. In this paper, we examine the recent SST records from the NESDIS AVHRR satellite data and NOAA Optimum Interpolation (OI) sea surface temperature V2 and provide a comparative analysis of projected SST changes for the Caribbean Sea up to the end of the twenty-first century, under the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios' simulations of the sea surface skin temperatures (SSsT) using the Hadley Centre's regional model, PRECIS. The implications of these projected SST changes for bleaching of coral reefs, one of the region's most valuable marine resource, and for rainfall are also discussed.

  20. Improved operating scenarios of the DIII-D tokamak as a result of the addition of UNIX computer systems

    SciTech Connect

    Henline, P.A.

    1995-10-01

    The increased use of UNIX based computer systems for machine control, data handling and analysis has greatly enhanced the operating scenarios and operating efficiency of the DRI-D tokamak. This paper will describe some of these UNIX systems and their specific uses. These include the plasma control system, the electron cyclotron heating control system, the analysis of electron temperature and density measurements and the general data acquisition system (which is collecting over 130 Mbytes of data). The speed and total capability of these systems has dramatically affected the ability to operate DIII-D. The improved operating scenarios include better plasma shape control due to the more thorough MHD calculations done between shots and the new ability to see the time dependence of profile data as it relates across different spatial locations in the tokamak. Other analysis which engenders improved operating abilities will be described.

  1. A simulated reality scenario compared with the computerized Wisconsin card sorting test: an analysis of preliminary results.

    PubMed

    Elkind, J S; Rubin, E; Rosenthal, S; Skoff, B; Prather, P

    2001-08-01

    Neuropsychologists and other clinicians often comment on the minimal relationship that frequently exists between formal assessments of executive functions, analysis of findings, recommendations, and the person's real-life functioning. The authors' believe that current assessments of executive functions do not transfer easily to real-world behavior. There are limitations in the current examinations and in the settings in which they are given. The tests are artificial and the test settings lack the usual stresses, distractions, and multiple demands common to real life. The interactions are unlike what they experience in everyday life. The examiner often, but unintentionally orients the participant to relevant information that in turn can help the person compensate for the difficulties with executive control processes and bias the findings. We believe that virtual reality (VR) more closely approximates real life settings, the distractions, and the common interchanges (VR) provides a "life-like," three-dimensional (3-D) highly interactive environment, and safety from potential dangers that could arise in actual situations. VR can increase motivation because of its gaming, interactive, and immersive qualities and features are easily modified and allow for multiple applications. Our goal is to develop VR assessments that can be administered under controlled and safe conditions, but which are more sensitive to difficulties with executive control processes critical to safe, independent living. This initial study compares several functions assessed by the Wisconsin Card Sorting Test (WCST) with our three-dimensional, stereographic scenario, Look for a Match (LFAM) Study participants completed questionnaires, alternately began with either the WCST or LFAM, and then took the second test. All participants completed motion sickness and follow-up questionnaires. The results demonstrated that the study participants found LFAM to be more enjoyable and interesting, but found the

  2. Decomposing uncertainties in the future terrestrial carbon budget associated with emission scenario, climate projection, and ecosystem simulation using the ISI-MIP result

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nishina, K.; Ito, A.; Falloon, P.; Friend, A. D.; Beerling, D. J.; Ciais, P.; Clark, D. B.; Kahana, R.; Kato, E.; Lucht, W.; Lomas, M.; Pavlick, R.; Schaphoff, S.; Warszawaski, L.; Yokohata, T.

    2014-10-01

    Changes to global net primary production (NPP), vegetation biomass carbon (VegC), and soil organic carbon (SOC) estimated by six global vegetation models (GVM) obtained from an Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project study were examined. Simulation results were obtained using five global climate models (GCM) forced with four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. To clarify which component (emission scenarios, climate projections, or global vegetation models) contributes the most to uncertainties in projected global terrestrial C cycling by 2100, analysis of variance (ANOVA) and wavelet clustering were applied to 70 projected simulation sets. In the end of simulation period, the changes from the year of 2000 in all three variables considerably varied from net negative to positive values. ANOVA revealed that the main sources of uncertainty are different among variables and depend on the projection period. We determined that in the global VegC, and SOC projections, GVMs dominate uncertainties (60 and 90%, respectively) rather than climate driving scenarios, i.e., RCPs and GCMs. These results suggested that we don't have still enough resolution among each RCP scenario to evaluate climate change impacts on ecosystem conditions in global terrestrial C cycling. In addition, we found that the contributions of each uncertainty source were spatio-temporally heterogeneous and differed among the GVM variables. The dominant uncertainty source for changes in NPP and VegC varies along the climatic gradient. The contribution of GVM to the uncertainty decreases as the climate division gets cooler (from ca. 80% in the equatorial division to 40% in the snow climatic division). To evaluate the effects of climate change on ecosystems with practical resolution in RCP scenarios, GVMs require further improvement to reduce the uncertainties in global C cycling as much as, if not more than, GCMs. Our study suggests that the improvement of GVMs is a priority for

  3. Preparing Corrections Staff for the Future: Results of a 2-Day Training About Aging Inmates.

    PubMed

    Masters, Julie L; Magnuson, Thomas M; Bayer, Barbara L; Potter, Jane F; Falkowski, Paul P

    2016-04-01

    The aging of the prison population presents corrections staff with unique challenges in knowing how to support inmates while maintaining security. This article describes a 2-day training program to introduce the aging process to select staff at all levels. While the results of a pre-posttest measure, using a modified version of Palmore's Facts on Aging Quiz, did not produce a statistically significant difference at the conclusion of the training, attendees did express satisfaction with the training and their newfound insight into the challenges faced by aging inmates. They also offered recommendations for future training to include more practical suggestions for the work environment. PMID:26984135

  4. Canadian economic and emissions model for agriculture, C.E.E.M.A., version 1.0, report 2: Preliminary results of selected scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Kulshreshtha, S.N.

    1999-09-01

    This is one of three technical reports which document an integrated agro-ecological economic modelling system that can be used to simultaneously assess the economic and the greenhouse gas emission impacts of agricultural policies at the regional and national levels. After an introduction on the importance of agricultural emissions of greenhouse gases and the need for a study of this issue, chapter 2 reviews the greenhouse gas emission model. Chapter 3 contains model-based estimates of greenhouse gas emission levels for the base year of 1990. Chapter 4 predicts future levels of emissions under medium-term baseline projections. Chapter 5 reviews some of the mitigation strategies available to Canadian farmers and assesses their impact on greenhouse emissions. Implications of trends in livestock production are also examined as a separate scenario. Using the scenarios developed in chapter 5, chapter 6 presents results of greenhouse gas emission estimates for individual gases, various production regions, and various emissions activities. The final chapter summarizes major results and discusses their implications for agricultural policy. Appendices include a description of the modelling methodology and a table showing estimates of the distribution of greenhouse gas emissions by crop and livestock production activities under various scenarios.

  5. Test results of a 2 kW internal manifold MCFC stack

    SciTech Connect

    Lim, H C; Seol, J H; Ahn, K S

    1996-01-01

    A R&D program on MCFC, of which current target is to establish the fundamental technology through fabricating a 2k-W stack with the performance higher than 0.8V at 150mA/cm{sup 2}, has been started since 1993. The program consisted of two phases : a AW class MCFC stack and the test facility will be constructed and operated during the first phase (1993-1996) and then a 100k-W MCFC system will be constructed in the second phase (1997-2002) on the basement of first phase results. From this strategy, KEPRI former the MCFC developing group with Korea Institute of Science and Technology (KIST) and Samsung Heavy Industry (SHI) for fabricating, operating and evaluating of 2k-W MCFC stack. This paper presents the results of this first phase program and some of the problems experienced during its operation and fabrication of stack components. Specification of the stack under operation is shown in Table 1.

  6. Climatic changes and associated impacts in the Mediterranean resulting from a 2 °C global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giannakopoulos, C.; Le Sager, P.; Bindi, M.; Moriondo, M.; Kostopoulou, E.; Goodess, C. M.

    2009-08-01

    Climatic changes over the Mediterranean basin in 2031-2060, when a 2 °C global warming is most likely to occur, are investigated with the HadCM3 global circulation model and their impacts on human activities and natural ecosystem are assessed. Precipitation and surface temperature changes are examined through mean and extreme values analysis, under the A2 and B2 emission scenarios. Confidence in results is obtained via bootstrapping. Over the land areas, the warming is larger than the global average. The rate of warming is found to be around 2 °C in spring and winter, while it reaches 4 °C in summer. An additional month of summer days is expected, along with 2-4 weeks of tropical nights. Increase in heatwave days and decrease in frost nights are expected to be a month inland. In the northern part of the basin the widespread drop in summer rainfall is partially compensated by a winter precipitation increase. One to 3 weeks of additional dry days lead to a dry season lengthened by a week and shifted toward spring in the south of France and inland Algeria, and autumn elsewhere. In central Mediterranean droughts are extended by a month, starting a week earlier and ending 3 weeks later. The impacts of these climatic changes on human activities such as agriculture, energy, tourism and natural ecosystems (forest fires) are also assessed. Regarding agriculture, crops whose growing cycle occurs mostly in autumn and winter show no changes or even an increase in yield. In contrast, summer crops show a remarkable decrease of yield. This different pattern is attributed to a lengthier drought period during summer and to an increased rainfall in winter and autumn. Regarding forest fire risk, an additional month of risk is expected over a great part of the basin. Energy demand levels are expected to fall significantly during a warmer winter period inland, whereas they seem to substantially increase nearly everywhere during summer. Extremely high summer temperatures in the

  7. Experimental Results From a 2kW Brayton Power Conversion Unit

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hervol, David; Mason, Lee; Birchenough, Arthur

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents experimental test results from operation of a 2 kWe Brayton power conversion unit. The Brayton converter was developed for a solar dynamic power system flight experiment planned for the Mir Space Station in 1997. The flight experiment was cancelled, but the converter was tested at Glenn Research Center as part of the Solar Dynamic Ground Test Demonstration system which included a solar concentrator, heat receiver, and space radiator. In preparation for the current testing, the heat receiver was removed and replaced with an electrical resistance heater, simulating the thermal input of a steady-state nuclear source. The converter was operated over a full range of thermal input power levels and rotor speeds to generate an overall performance map. The converter unit will serve as the centerpiece of a Nuclear Electric Propulsion Testbed at Glenn. Future potential uses for the Testbed include high voltage electrical controller development, integrated electric thruster testing and advanced radiator demonstration testing to help guide high power Brayton technology development for Nuclear Electric Propulsion (NEP).

  8. A 2D optomechanical focused laser spot scanner: analysis and experimental results for microstereolithography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gandhi, P. S.; Deshmukh, S.

    2010-01-01

    This paper proposes and analyzes a 2D optomechanical-focused laser spot scanning system (patent pending) which allows uniform intensity focused spot scanning with high speed and high resolution over a large range of scan. Such scanning is useful where variation of focused spot characteristics affects the performance of applications such as micro-/nano-stereolithography, laser micro-machining, scanning optical tweezers, optical scanning microscopy, and so on. Proposed scanning is achieved by using linear movement of mirrors and lens maintaining the alignment of motion and optical axis of laser. Higher speed and high resolution at the same time are achieved by use of two serial double parallelogram flexural mechanisms with mechatronics developed around them. Optical analysis is carried out to demonstrate effectiveness of the proposed system numerically and is further supported by the experimental results. Additional analysis is carried out to demonstrate robustness of the scanner in the case of small misalignment errors incurred in actual practice. Although the proposed scanner is useful in general in several applications mentioned above, discussion in this paper is focused on microstereolithography.

  9. Results from recent hydrogen pellet acceleration studies with a 2-m railgun

    SciTech Connect

    Kim, K.; Zhang, D.J.; King, T.; Haywood, R.; Manns, W.; Venneri, F.

    1989-12-01

    A new 3.2-mm-diameter, two-stage, fuseless, plasma-arc-driven electromagnetic railgun has been designed, constructed, and successfully operated to achieve a record velocity of 2.67 km/s({sup b}) for 3.2 mmD {times} 4 mmL solid hydrogen pellet. The first stage of this hydrogen pellet injector is a combination of a hydrogen pellet generator and a gas fun. The second stage is a 2-m-long railgun which serves as a booster accelerator. The gas fun accelerates a frozen hydrogen pellet to a medium velocity and injects it into the railgun through a perforated coupling piece, which also serves a pressure-relieving mechanism. An electrical breakdown of the propellant gas, which has followed the pellet from the gas fun into the railgun, forms a conducting plasma-arc armature immediately behind the pellet allowing for fuseless operation of the railgun. Study of the pressure profile and the behavior of the plasma-arc armature inside the railgun bore led to elimination of spurious arcing, which prevents operation of the railgun at high voltages (and, therefore, at high currents). A timing circuit that can automatically measure the pellet input velocity and allows for accurate control of arc initiation behind the pellet helps prevent pellet disintegration and mistriggering of the arc initiation circuit. Results from the recent cryogenic operation of the two-stage pellet acceleration system are reported. 11 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab.

  10. Brief Communication: On the rapid and efficient monitoring results dissemination in landslide emergency scenarios: the Mont de La Saxe case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giordan, D.; Manconi, A.; Allasia, P.; Bertolo, D.

    2015-04-01

    Straightforward communication of monitoring results is of major importance in emergency scenarios relevant to large slope instabilities. Here we describe the communication strategy developed for the Mont de La Saxe case study, a large rockslide threatening La Palud and Entrèves hamlets in the Courmayeur municipality (Aosta Valley, Italy). Starting from the definition of actions and needs of the Landslide Management Team, including scientists, technicians, civil protection operators, decision makers, and politicians, we show that sharing and disseminating ad hoc information simplifies the understanding of the landslide evolution, as well as the correct communication of the level of criticality.

  11. Brief Communication: On the rapid and efficient monitoring results dissemination in landslide emergency scenarios: the Mont de La Saxe case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giordan, D.; Manconi, A.; Allasia, P.; Bertolo, D.

    2015-09-01

    Straightforward communication of monitoring results is of major importance in emergency scenarios relevant to large slope instabilities. Here we describe the communication strategy developed for the Mont de La Saxe rockslide threatening La Palud and Entrèves hamlets in the Courmayeur municipality (Aosta Valley, Italy). Starting from the definition of actions and needs of the landslide management team, including scientists, technicians, civil protection operators, decision makers, and politicians, we show that sharing and disseminating ad hoc information simplifies the understanding of the landslide evolution, as well as the correct communication of the level of criticality.

  12. A New Scenario for the Production of Weak Bipolar Fields in Space: "Notch" Instabilities Resulting From Electron Velocity Dispersion*

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Newman, D. L.; Goldman, M. V.

    2007-05-01

    The bipolar signatures of weak (eφmax/Te ≪ 1) electron phase-space holes have now been observed in numerous near-Earth space-plasma environments such as the polar cusp region1 and the solar wind2 at 1 AU. While families of stationary solutions of the Vlasov-Poisson equations consistent with these observations have been found,3 the question of how shallow phase-space density depressions supporting these bipolar fields form remains an open one. While strong bipolar fields associated with deep phase-space holes in Earth auroral downward-current region are consistent with saturated two-stream instabilities resulting from double-layer electron acceleration,4 the weak bipolar fields observed in other space environments may require an alternative generation mechanism. One such mechanism involves the formation of narrow minima in the electron velocity-space distribution resulting from stretching due to velocity dispersion of phase-space density minima that are initially localized in physical space (e.g., constant-density regions with temperatures greater than their surroundings). These velocity-space minima, which become narrower as they are dispersively stretched, eventually cross the threshold condition for a "notch" instability, which saturates by forming an expanding series of shallow phase-space holes and their associated weak bipolar fields. 1-D Vlasov-Poisson simulations show that this process can be a robust mechanism for generating a large ensemble of shallow holes. Simulations with different background electron distributions show that the properties of the holes that form depend sensitively on the characteristics of the embedding plasma environment. * Research supported by NSF, NASA, and DOE. 1 J. R. Franz, et al., JGR, 110, doi:10.1029/2005JA011095 (2005). 2 A. Mangeney, private communication. 3 M. V. Goldman, et al., this meeting. 4 R. E. Ergun, et al., PRL, 87, 045003 (2001); D. L. Newman, et al. PRL, 87, 255001 (2001).

  13. O{sub 3} and stratospheric H{sub 2}O radiative forcing resulting from a supersonic jet transport emission scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Grossman, A.S.; Kinnison, D.E.; Penner, J.E.; Grant, K.E.; Tamaresis, J.; Connell, P.S.

    1996-01-01

    The tropospheric radiative forcing has been calculated for ozone and water vapor perturbations caused by a realistic High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) aircraft emission scenario. Atmospheric profiles of water vapor and ozone were obtained using the LLNL 2-D chemical-radiative-transport model (CRT) of the global troposphere and stratosphere. IR radiative forcing calculations were made with the LLNL correlated k-distribution radiative transfer model. UV-Visible-Near IR radiative forcing calculations were made with the LLNL two stream solar radiation model. For the case of water vapor the IR and Near IR radiative forcing was determined at five different latitudes and then averaged using an appropriate latitudinal average to obtain the global average value. Global average values of radiative forcing were approximately 1.2--2.6 10{sup {minus}3} W/m{sup 2}, depending on the background atmospheric water vapor profile. This result is consistent with prior published values for a similar aircraft scenario and supports the conclusion that the water vapor climate forcing effect is very small. The radiative forcing in the IR and UV-Visible spectral ranges, due to the ozone perturbation, was calculated for the globally averaged atmosphere. Global average values of the radiative forcing were 0.034 W/m{sup 2} for the UV-Visible spectral range and 0.006 W/m{sup 2} for the IR spectral range (0.04 W/m{sup 2} total). This result is also consistent with the range of published values obtained for a similar HSCT scenario. As was the case for water vapor, the ozone forcing is too small to be of major consequence.

  14. Projected impact of climate change in the North and Baltic Sea. Results from dynamical downscaling of global CMIP climate scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gröger, Matthias; Maier-Reimer, Ernst; Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Sein, Dmitry

    2013-04-01

    Climate models have predicted strongest climate change impact for the mid/high lattiude areas. Despite their importance, shelves seas (which are supposed to account for more than 20% of global marine primary production and for up to 50% of total marine carbon uptake) are not adequately resolved in climate models. In this study, the global ocean general circulation and biogeochemistry model MPIOM/HAMOCC has been setup with an enhanced resolution over the NW European shelf (~10 km in the southern North Sea). For a realistic representation of atmosphere-ocean interactions the regional model REMO has been implemented. Thus, this model configuration allows a physically consistent simulation of climate signal propagation from the North Atlantic over the North Sea into the Baltic Sea since it interactively simulates mass and energy fluxes between the three basins. The results indicate substantial changes in hydrographic and biological conditions for the end of the 21st Century. A freshening by about 0.75 psu together with a surface warming of ~2.0 K and associated circulation changes in and outside the North Sea reduce biological production on the NW European shelf by ~35%. This reduction is twice as strong as the reduction in the open ocean. The underlying mechanism is a spatially well confined stratification feedback along the shelf break and the continental slope which reduces the winter mixed layer by locally more than 200 m compared to current conditions. As a consequence winter nutrient supply from the deep Atlantic declines between 40 and 50%. In addition to this, the volume transport of water and salt into the North Sea will slightly reduce (~10%) during summer. At the end of the 21st Century the North Sea appears nearly decoupled from the deep Atlantic. The projected decline in biological productivity and subsequent decrease of phytoplankton (by averaged 25%) will probably negatively affect the local fish stock in the North Sea. In the Baltic Sea the climate

  15. Dissolved oxygen analysis, TMDL model comparison, and particulate matter shunting—Preliminary results from three model scenarios for the Klamath River upstream of Keno Dam, Oregon

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sullivan, Annett B.; Rounds, Stewart A.; Deas, Michael L.; Sogutlugil, I. Ertugrul

    2012-01-01

    Efforts are underway to identify actions that would improve water quality in the Link River to Keno Dam reach of the Upper Klamath River in south-central Oregon. To provide further insight into water-quality improvement options, three scenarios were developed, run, and analyzed using previously calibrated CE-QUAL-W2 hydrodynamic and water-quality models. Additional scenarios are under development as part of this ongoing study. Most of these scenarios evaluate changes relative to a "current conditions" model, but in some cases a "natural conditions" model was used that simulated the reach without the effect of point and nonpoint sources and set Upper Klamath Lake at its Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) targets. These scenarios were simulated using a model developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Watercourse Engineering, Inc. for the years 2006–09, referred to here as the "USGS model." Another model of the reach was developed by Tetra Tech, Inc. for years 2000 and 2002 to support the Klamath River TMDL process; that model is referred to here as the "TMDL model." The three scenarios described in this report included (1) an analysis of whether this reach of the Upper Klamath River would be in compliance with dissolved oxygen standards if sources met TMDL allocations, (2) an application of more recent datasets to the TMDL model with comparison to results from the USGS model, and (3) an examination of the effect on dissolved oxygen in the Klamath River if particulate material were stopped from entering Klamath Project diversion canals. Updates and modifications to the USGS model are in progress, so in the future these scenarios will be reanalyzed with the updated model and the interim results presented here will be superseded. Significant findings from this phase of the investigation include: * The TMDL analysis used depth-averaged dissolved oxygen concentrations from model output for comparison with dissolved oxygen standards. The Oregon dissolved oxygen

  16. Decomposing uncertainties in the future terrestrial carbon budget associated with emission scenarios, climate projections, and ecosystem simulations using the ISI-MIP results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nishina, K.; Ito, A.; Falloon, P.; Friend, A. D.; Beerling, D. J.; Ciais, P.; Clark, D. B.; Kahana, R.; Kato, E.; Lucht, W.; Lomas, M.; Pavlick, R.; Schaphoff, S.; Warszawaski, L.; Yokohata, T.

    2015-07-01

    We examined the changes to global net primary production (NPP), vegetation biomass carbon (VegC), and soil organic carbon (SOC) estimated by six global vegetation models (GVMs) obtained from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. Simulation results were obtained using five global climate models (GCMs) forced with four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. To clarify which component (i.e., emission scenarios, climate projections, or global vegetation models) contributes the most to uncertainties in projected global terrestrial C cycling by 2100, analysis of variance (ANOVA) and wavelet clustering were applied to 70 projected simulation sets. At the end of the simulation period, changes from the year 2000 in all three variables varied considerably from net negative to positive values. ANOVA revealed that the main sources of uncertainty are different among variables and depend on the projection period. We determined that in the global VegC and SOC projections, GVMs are the main influence on uncertainties (60 % and 90 %, respectively) rather than climate-driving scenarios (RCPs and GCMs). Moreover, the divergence of changes in vegetation carbon residence times is dominated by GVM uncertainty, particularly in the latter half of the 21st century. In addition, we found that the contribution of each uncertainty source is spatiotemporally heterogeneous and it differs among the GVM variables. The dominant uncertainty source for changes in NPP and VegC varies along the climatic gradient. The contribution of GVM to the uncertainty decreases as the climate division becomes cooler (from ca. 80 % in the equatorial division to 40 % in the snow division). Our results suggest that to assess climate change impacts on global ecosystem C cycling among each RCP scenario, the long-term C dynamics within the ecosystems (i.e., vegetation turnover and soil decomposition) are more critical factors than photosynthetic processes. The different trends in the

  17. Preliminary Results of Plasma Flow Measurements in a 2 KW Segmented Hall Thruster

    SciTech Connect

    Y. Raitses; D. Staack; A. Dunaevsky; L. Dorf; N.J. Fisch

    2003-03-01

    A 2-kW Hall thruster was developed, built, and operated in an upgraded vacuum facility. The thruster performance and parameters of the plasma flow were measured by new diagnostics for plume measurements and plasma measurements inside the thruster channel. The thruster demonstrated efficient operation in terms of propellant and current utilization efficiencies in the input power range of 0.5-3.5 kW. Preliminary measurements of the ion energy spectra from the thruster axis region and the distribution of plasma parameters in the vicinity of the thruster exit are reported.

  18. Translating theory into practice: results of a 2-year trial for the LEAD programme.

    PubMed

    Shelton, D

    2008-05-01

    This paper presents data for 2 years of a continuing study aimed to reduce the risk of first-time involvement by minority youth with the juvenile justice system. A quasi-experimental design was used to test a 14-week expressive art curriculum (LEAD: leadership, education, achievement and development) implemented in two rural communities. A total of 70 African American youth participated in the programme over a 2-year period. Pre- and post-test differences were examined for protective factors, behavioural self-control, self-esteem and resilience measures. When compared with the after-school programme (control group), youth in the LEAD programme in both communities had more dramatic increases in post-test scores following the intervention. The combined data from year 1 and year 2 provide positive findings in support of LEAD as a prevention programme for young offenders. The placement of the programme within an African American church in year 2 improved the processes of the LEAD programme and seemed to provide a better fit with the original design of the programme, highlighting the importance of the context, in which the programme was provided. PMID:18387150

  19. From provocative narrative scenarios to quantitative biophysical model results: Simulating plausible futures to 2070 in an urbanizing agricultural watershed in Wisconsin, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Booth, E.; Chen, X.; Motew, M.; Qiu, J.; Zipper, S. C.; Carpenter, S. R.; Kucharik, C. J.; Steven, L. I.

    2015-12-01

    Scenario analysis is a powerful tool for envisioning future social-ecological change and its consequences on human well-being. Scenarios that integrate qualitative storylines and quantitative biophysical models can create a vivid picture of these potential futures but the integration process is not straightforward. We present - using the Yahara Watershed in southern Wisconsin (USA) as a case study - a method for developing quantitative inputs (climate, land use/cover, and land management) to drive a biophysical modeling suite based on four provocative and contrasting narrative scenarios that describe plausible futures of the watershed to 2070. The modeling suite consists of an agroecosystem model (AgroIBIS-VSF), hydrologic routing model (THMB), and empirical lake water quality model and estimates several biophysical indicators to evaluate the watershed system under each scenario. These indicators include water supply, lake flooding, agricultural production, and lake water quality. Climate (daily precipitation and air temperature) for each scenario was determined using statistics from 210 different downscaled future climate projections for two 20-year time periods (2046-2065 and 2081-2100) and modified using a stochastic weather generator to allow flexibility for matching specific climate events within the scenario narratives. Land use/cover for each scenario was determined first by quantifying changes in areal extent every decade for 15 categories at the watershed scale to be consistent with the storyline events and theme. Next, these changes were spatially distributed using a rule-based framework based on land suitability metrics that determine transition probabilities. Finally, agricultural inputs including manure and fertilizer application rates were determined for each scenario based on the prevalence of livestock, water quality regulations, and technological innovations. Each scenario is compared using model inputs (maps and time-series of land use/cover and

  20. The Mediterranean surface wave climate inferred from future scenario simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lionello, P.; Cogo, S.; Galati, M. B.; Sanna, A.

    2008-09-01

    This study is based on 30-year long simulations of the wind-wave field in the Mediterranean Sea carried out with the WAM model. Wave fields have been computed for the 2071-2100 period of the A2, B2 emission scenarios and for the 1961-1990 period of the present climate (REF). The wave model has been forced by the wind field computed by a regional climate model with 50 km resolution. The mean SWH (Significant Wave Height) field over large fraction of the Mediterranean sea is lower for the A2 scenario than for the present climate during winter, spring and autumn. During summer the A2 mean SWH field is also lower everywhere, except for two areas, those between Greece and Northern Africa and between Spain and Algeria, where it is significantly higher. All these changes are similar, though smaller and less significant, in the B2 scenario, except during winter in the north-western Mediterranean Sea, when the B2 mean SWH field is higher than in the REF simulation. Also extreme SWH values are smaller in future scenarios than in the present climate and such SWH change is larger for the A2 than for the B2 scenario. The only exception is the presence of higher SWH extremes in the central Mediterranean during summer for the A2 scenario. In general, changes of SWH, wind speed and atmospheric circulation are consistent, and results show milder marine storms in future scenarios than in the present climate.

  1. Candu 6 severe core damage accident consequence analysis for steam generator tube rupture scenario using MAAP4-CANDU V4.0.5A: preliminary results

    SciTech Connect

    Petoukhov, S.M.; Awadh, B.; Mathew, P.M.

    2006-07-01

    This paper describes the preliminary results of the consequence analysis for a generic AECL CANDU 6 station, when it undergoes a postulated, low probability Steam Generator multiple Tube Rupture (SGTR) severe accident with assumed unavailability of several critical plant safety systems. The Modular Accident Analysis Program for CANDU (MAAP4-CANDU) code was used for this analysis. The SGTR accident is assumed to begin with the guillotine rupture of 10 steam generator tubes in one steam generator in Primary Heat Transport System (PHTS) loop 1. For the reference case, the following systems were assumed unavailable: moderator and shield cooling, emergency core cooling, crash cool-down, and main and auxiliary feed water. Two additional cases were analyzed, one with the crash cool-down system available, and another with the crash cool-down and the auxiliary feed water systems available. The three scenarios considered in this study show that most of the initial fission product inventory would be retained within the containment by various fission product retention mechanisms. For the case where the crash cool-down system was credited but the auxiliary feed water systems were not credited, the total mass of volatile fission products released to the environment including stable and radioactive isotopes was about four times more than in the reference case, because fission products could be released directly from the PHTS to the environment through the Main Steam Safety Valves (MSSVs), bypassing the containment. For the case where the crash cool-down and auxiliary feed water systems were credited, the volatile fission product release to the environment was insignificant, because the fission product release was substantially mitigated by scrubbing in the water pool in the secondary side of the steam generator (SG). (authors)

  2. Marine storminess in the Mediterranean in future climate scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lionello, P.

    2009-09-01

    This talk reviews the analysis that is presently available on marine storms, their climatology and change in future climate scenarios. The cyclones that are responsible for the storms are analyzed using a regional climate model simulations of present day (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100, A2 and B2 emission scenarios) and the differences between northern Europe and Mediterranean are discussed. In the A2 and B2 scenarios the annual average storm track intensity increases over the North-East Atlantic and decreases over the Eastern Mediterranean region with respect to present day conditions,. The number of cyclones decreases in future scenarios throughout Europe, except over the central Europe and Mediterranean in summer, where it increases. This overall change pattern is larger in the A2 than in the B2 simulations. Wind-wave field changes are discussed considering a similar analysis. The mean SWH (Significant Wave Height) field over large fraction of the Mediterranean Sea is lower for the A2 scenario than for the present climate during winter, spring and autumn. During summer the A2 mean SWH field is also lower everywhere, except for two areas, those between Greece and Northern Africa and between Spain and Algeria, where it is significantly higher. All these changes are similar, though smaller and less significant, in the B2 scenario, except during winter in the north-western Mediterranean Sea, when the B2 mean SWH field is higher than in the REF simulation. Also extreme SWH values are smaller in future scenarios than in the present climate and such SWH change is larger for the A2 than for the B2 scenario. In general, changes of SWH, wind speed and atmospheric circulation are consistent, and results show milder marine storms in future scenarios than in the present climate.

  3. Dominant and Recessive Forms of Fibrochondrogenesis Resulting from Mutations at a Second Locus, COL11A2

    PubMed Central

    Tompson, Stuart W.; Faqeih, Eissa Ali; Ala-Kokko, Leena; Hecht, Jacqueline T.; Miki, Rika; Funari, Tara; Funari, Vincent A.; Nevarez, Lisette; Krakow, Deborah; Cohn, Daniel H.

    2011-01-01

    Fibrochondrogenesis is a severe, recessively inherited skeletal dysplasia shown to result from mutations in the gene encoding the proα1(XI) chain of type XI collagen, COL11A1. The first of two cases reported here was the affected offspring of first cousins and sequence analysis excluded mutations in COL11A1. Consequently, whole-genome SNP genotyping was performed to identify blocks of homozygosity, identical-by-descent, wherein the disease locus would reside. COL11A1 was not within a region of homozygosity, further excluding it as the disease locus, but the gene encoding the proα2(XI) chain of type XI collagen, COL11A2, was located within a large region of homozygosity. Sequence analysis identified homozygosity for a splice donor mutation in intron 18. Exon trapping demonstrated that the mutation resulted in skipping of exon 18 and predicted deletion of 18 amino acids from the triple helical domain of the protein. In the second case, heterozygosity for a de novo 9 bp deletion in exon 40 of COL11A2 was identified, indicating that there are autosomal dominant forms of fibrochondrogenesis. These findings thus demonstrate that fibrochondrogenesis can result from either recessively- or dominantly-inherited mutations in COL11A2. PMID:22246659

  4. 3D hydro-mechanical scenario analysis to evaluate changes of the recent stress field as a result of geological CO2 storage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Magri, Fabien; Tillner, Elena; Kempka, Thomas; Wang, Wenqing; Watanabe, Norihiro; Zimmermann, Günter

    2013-04-01

    CO2 storage in deep saline aquifers is one of the strategies used to reduce greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. However, pressure buildup due to the CO2 injection process and subsequent pressure dissipation alter the recent stress field in and around the reservoir. These stress changes may lead to ground uplift, rock fracturing or fault reactivation. In order to study these phenomena by numerical simulations, flow and mechanical equations have to be solved together, requiring a hydro-mechanical coupling. In the present study, a prospective CO2 storage site located in the Northeast German Basin serves as 3D geological framework for a numerical evaluation of deformations and in situ stress changes induced by CO2 injection into the Middle Bunter sandstone. For that purpose, two open-source simulators are coupled: TOUGH2 (Pruess et al., 1999) is applied to calculate reservoir pore pressures which are subsequently transferred into the hydro-geomechanical simulator OpenGeoSys (Wang et al., 2009) to solve the hydro-mechanical equations. A scenario analysis was undertaken to evaluate the mechanical effects of CO2 injection on the reservoir and caprock stability. The results show that under specific assumptions the vertical movement of the top reservoir is negligible. Furthermore, the changes in the recent stress field predicted by geomechanical modeling are limited to the surrounding of the injection well and not significant enough to endanger the mechanical stability of the reservoir and caprock considering the geological boundary conditions of the study area and the proposed injection scheme The presented study demonstrates the hydro-mechanical effects of CO2 storage in a well-constrained 3D geological regional-scale model based on the characterization of residual rocks, and can therefore be representative for CO2 storage in the Northeast German Basin. References Pruess, K., C.M. Oldenburg, and G. Moridis, "TOUGH2 User's Guide, Version 2.0", Lawrence Berkeley

  5. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Porter, K.; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Borrero, J.; Bwarie, J.; Dykstra, D.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Long, K.; Lynett, P.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, Carl E.; Perry, S.; Plumlee, G.; Real, C.; Ritchie, L.; Scawthorn, C.; Thio, H.K.; Wein, Anne; Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R.; Wood, Nathan J.

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California (as well as the west coast of the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii) for the purpose of informing planning and mitigation decisions by a variety of stakeholders. The scenario begins with an Mw 9.1 earthquake off the Alaska Peninsula. With Pacific basin-wide modeling, we estimate up to 5m waves and 10 m/sec currents would strike California 5 hours later. In marinas and harbors, 13,000 small boats are damaged or sunk (1 in 3) at a cost of $350 million, causing navigation and environmental problems. Damage in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amount to $110 million, half of it water damage to vehicles and containerized cargo. Flooding of coastal communities affects 1800 city blocks, resulting in $640 million in damage. The tsunami damages 12 bridge abutments and 16 lane-miles of coastal roadway, costing $85 million to repair. Fire and business interruption losses will substantially add to direct losses. Flooding affects 170,000 residents and workers. A wide range of environmental impacts could occur. An extensive public education and outreach program is underway, as well as an evaluation of the overall effort.

  6. Harmonization of Land-Use Scenarios for the Period 1500-2100: 600 Years of Global Gridded Annual Land-Use Transitions, Wood Harvest, and Resulting Secondary Lands

    SciTech Connect

    Hurtt, George; Chini, Louise Parsons; Frolking, Steve; Betts, Richard; Feddema, Johannes; Fischer, Gavin M.; Fisk, J.P.; Hibbard, Kathleen A.; Houghton, R. A.; Janetos, Anthony C.; Jones, C.; Kindermann, G.; Kinoshita, Tsuguki; Goldeweijk, Kees K.; Riahi, Keywan; Shevliakova, Elena; Smith, Steven J.; Stehfest, Eike; Thomson, Allison M.; Thornton, P.; Van Vuuren, Detlef; Wang, Y.

    2011-08-08

    In preparation for the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the international community is developing new advanced Earth System Models (ESM) to assess the combined effects of human activities (e.g. land use and fossil fuel emissions) on the carbon-climate system. In addition, four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios of the future (2005-2100) are being provided by four Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) teams to be used as input to the ESMs for future carbon-climate projections (Moss et al., 2010). The diversity of approaches and requirements among IAMs and ESMs for tracking land-use change, along with the dependence of model projections on land-use history, presents a challenge for effectively passing data between these communities and for smoothly transitioning from the historical estimates to future projections. Here, a harmonized set of land-use scenarios are presented that smoothly connects historical reconstructions of land use with future projections, in the format required by ESMs.

  7. Results of a 2-Week Inpatient Stay at the Department for Internal and Integrative Medicine: An Observational Study

    PubMed Central

    Lauche, Romy; Cramer, Holger; Moebus, Susanne; Paul, Anna; Michalsen, Andreas; Langhorst, Jost; Dobos, Gustav

    2012-01-01

    Introduction. The Department for Internal and Integrative Medicine in Essen utilizes mind/body medical elements in order to empower patients with chronic diseases to better cope with their symptoms and to adopt a healthy lifestyle. This study explored the influence and predictors of a 2-week integrative treatment program on patients' quality of life. Methods. This observational study was conducted with inpatients as part of the quality assurance program. Patients' quality of life, psychological symptoms, and health locus of control were measured on admission and discharge and again 3, 6, and 12 months after discharge. Regression analyses were conducted to determine the factors predicting improved quality of life. Results. Data from 2486 inpatients treated in 2001–2004 were included (80% female, mean age 53.9 ± 14.3 years). Response rates decreased to 50% at 12 months. Small-to-moderate effects were found on patients' quality of life, anxiety, and depression. Patients' internal locus of control significantly increased. Improved quality of life was mainly predicted by lower baseline scores. Conclusion. Results of this study suggest that a 2-week inpatient treatment might sustainably reduce patients' symptoms and increase their quality of life; however, conclusions are only preliminary. More research is needed to enable the effectiveness to be judged conclusively. PMID:23133499

  8. The MATROSHKA experiment: results and comparison from extravehicular activity (MTR-1) and intravehicular activity (MTR-2A/2B) exposure.

    PubMed

    Berger, Thomas; Bilski, Paweł; Hajek, Michael; Puchalska, Monika; Reitz, Günther

    2013-12-01

    Astronauts working and living in space are exposed to considerably higher doses and different qualities of ionizing radiation than people on Earth. The multilateral MATROSHKA (MTR) experiment, coordinated by the German Aerospace Center, represents the most comprehensive effort to date in radiation protection dosimetry in space using an anthropomorphic upper-torso phantom used for radiotherapy treatment planning. The anthropomorphic upper-torso phantom maps the radiation distribution as a simulated human body installed outside (MTR-1) and inside different compartments (MTR-2A: Pirs; MTR-2B: Zvezda) of the Russian Segment of the International Space Station. Thermoluminescence dosimeters arranged in a 2.54 cm orthogonal grid, at the site of vital organs and on the surface of the phantom allow for visualization of the absorbed dose distribution with superior spatial resolution. These results should help improve the estimation of radiation risks for long-term human space exploration and support benchmarking of radiation transport codes. PMID:24252101

  9. Flying into the future: aviation emissions scenarios to 2050.

    PubMed

    Owen, Bethan; Lee, David S; Lim, Ling

    2010-04-01

    This study describes the methodology and results for calculating future global aviation emissions of carbon dioxide and oxides of nitrogen from air traffic under four of the IPCC/SRES (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change/Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) marker scenarios: A1B, A2, B1, and B2. In addition, a mitigation scenario has been calculated for the B1 scenario, requiring rapid and significant technology development and transition. A global model of aircraft movements and emissions (FAST) was used to calculate fuel use and emissions to 2050 with a further outlook to 2100. The aviation emission scenarios presented are designed to interpret the SRES and have been developed to aid in the quantification of the climate change impacts of aviation. Demand projections are made for each scenario, determined by SRES economic growth factors and the SRES storylines. Technology trends are examined in detail and developed for each scenario providing plausible projections for fuel efficiency and emissions control technology appropriate to the individual SRES storylines. The technology trends that are applied are calculated from bottom-up inventory calculations and industry technology trends and targets. Future emissions of carbon dioxide are projected to grow between 2000 and 2050 by a factor in the range of 2.0 and 3.6 depending on the scenario. Emissions of oxides of nitrogen associated with aviation over the same period are projected to grow by between a factor of 1.2 and 2.7. PMID:20225840

  10. Columnar modelling of nucleation burst evolution in the convective boundary layer - first results from a feasibility study Part III: Preliminary results on physicochemical model performance using two "clean air mass" reference scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hellmuth, O.

    2006-09-01

    In Paper I of four papers, a revised columnar high-order model to investigate gas-aerosol-turbulence interactions in the convective boundary layer (CBL) was proposed. In Paper II, the model capability to predict first-, second- and third-order moments of meteorological variables in the CBL was demonstrated using available observational data. In the present Paper III, the high-order modelling concept is extended to sulphur and ammonia chemistry as well as to aerosol dynamics. Based on the previous CBL simulation, a feasibility study is performed using two "clean air mass" scenarios with an emission source at the ground but low aerosol background concentration. Such scenarios synoptically correspond to the advection of fresh post-frontal air in an anthropogenically influenced region. The aim is to evaluate the time-height evolution of ultrafine condensation nuclei (UCNs) and to elucidate the interactions between meteorological and physicochemical variables in a CBL column. The scenarios differ in the treatment of new particle formation (NPF), whereas homogeneous nucleation according to the classical nucleation theory (CNT) is considered. The first scenario considers nucleation of a binary system consisting of water vapour and sulphuric acid (H2SO4) vapour, the second one nucleation of a ternary system additionally involving ammonia (NH3). Here, the two synthetic scenarios are discussed in detail, whereas special attention is payed to the role of turbulence in the formation of the typical UCN burst behaviour, that can often be observed in the surface layer. The intercomparison of the two scenarios reveals large differences in the evolution of the UCN number concentration in the surface layer as well as in the time-height cross-sections of first-order moments and double correlation terms. Although in both cases the occurrence of NPF bursts could be simulated, the burst characteristics and genesis of the bursts are completely different. It is demonstrated, that

  11. Diabetes Nurse Case Management and Motivational Interviewing for Change (DYNAMIC): Results of a 2-year Randomized Controlled Pragmatic Trial

    PubMed Central

    Gabbay, Robert A.; Añel-Tiangco, Raquel M.; Dellasega, Cheryl; Mauger, David T.; Adelman, Alan; Van Horn, Deborah H.A.

    2013-01-01

    Objective To determine if the addition of nurse case managers (NCMs) trained in motivational interviewing (MI) to usual care would result in improved outcomes in high risk type 2 diabetes patients. Methods A 2-year randomized controlled pragmatic trial randomized 545 patients to usual care control (n=313) or those who received the intervention (n= 232) with additional practice embedded NCM care, including MI-guided behavior change counseling. NCMs received intensive MI training with ongoing fidelity assessment. Results Systolic BP was better in the intervention group (131±15.9 vs. 135±18.2, p < 0.05). HbA1c, LDL, and diastolic BP improved in both groups: HbA1c (control group 9.1% to 8.0%, intervention group 8.8% to 7.8%), LDL (control group 127 to 100 mg/dL, intervention group 128 to 102 mg/dL), diastolic BP (control group 78 to 74 mm Hg, intervention group 80 to 74 mm Hg). Depression symptom scores were better in the intervention group. The reduction in diabetes-related distress approached statistical significance. Conclusions NCMs and MI improved systolic BP and complications screening. The large decrease in HbA1C and LDL in the control group may have obscured any further intervention effect. Although nurses prompted providers for medication titration, strategies to reduce provider clinical inertia might also be needed. Significant findings of the study In patients with type 2 diabetes, an intervention with nurse case management and motivational interviewing improves systolic blood pressure, depression, and screening for complications. What this study adds First study to look at the benefit of the addition of motivational interviewing to nurse case management in the care of the high-risk adult with type 2 diabetes. Particular attention was given to ensuring fidelity to the motivational interviewing approach. PMID:23368423

  12. Fellow use of medical jargon correlates inversely with patient and observer perceptions of professionalism: results of a rheumatology OSCE (ROSCE) using challenging patient scenarios.

    PubMed

    Berman, Jessica R; Aizer, Juliet; Bass, Anne R; Blanco, Irene; Davidson, Anne; Dwyer, Edward; Fields, Theodore R; Huang, Wei-Ti; Kang, Jane S; Kerr, Leslie D; Krasnokutsky-Samuels, Svetlana; Lazaro, Deana M; Schwartzman-Morris, Julie S; Paget, Stephen A; Pillinger, Michael H

    2016-08-01

    The NYC Rheumatology Objective Structured Clinical Examination (NYC-ROSCE) is held annually to assess fellow competencies. We recently redesigned our OSCE to better assess subspecialty trainee communication skills and professionalism by developing scenarios in which the patients encountered were psychosocially or medically complex. The objective of this study is to identify which types of verbal and non-verbal skills are most important in the perception of professionalism in the patient-physician interaction. The 2012-2013 NYC-ROSCEs included a total of 53 fellows: 55 MD evaluators from 7 NYC rheumatology training programs (Hospital for Special Surgery-Weill Cornell (HSS), SUNY/Downstate, NYU, Einstein, Columbia, Mount Sinai, and North Shore/Long Island Jewish (NSLIJ)), and 55 professional actors/standardized patients participated in 5 stations. Quantitative fellow performance assessments were made on the following: maintaining composure; partnering with the patient; honesty; professionalism; empathy; and accountability. Free-text comments were solicited regarding specific strengths and weaknesses. A total of 53/53 eligible (100 %) fellows were evaluated. MD evaluators rated fellows lower for professionalism than did the standardized patients (6.8 ± 0.6 vs. 7.4 ± 0.8, p = 0.05), suggesting that physicians and patients view professionalism somewhat differently. Fellow self-evaluations for professionalism (6.6 ± 1.2) were concordant with those of the MD evaluators. Ratings of empathy by fellows themselves (6.6 ± 1.0), MD evaluators (6.6 ± 0.7), and standardized patients (6.6 ± 1.1) agreed closely. Jargon use, frequently cited by evaluators, showed a moderate association with lower professionalism ratings by both MD evaluators and patients. Psychosocially challenging patient encounters in the NYC-ROSCE permitted critical assessment of the patient-centered traits contributing to impressions of professionalism and indicate that

  13. Subtalar arthroscopy using a 2.4-mm zero-degree arthroscope: indication, technical experience, and results.

    PubMed

    Siddiqui, Mashfiqul A; Chong, Keen Wai; Yeo, William; Rao, Mohana S; Rikhraj, Inderjeet S

    2010-08-01

    The subtalar joint is complex. With the advent of smaller diameter arthroscopes, subtalar arthroscopy has become an important diagnostic and therapeutic tool for subtalar joint disorders. The objective of this study was to evaluate the outcome of patients who underwent arthroscopy for subtalar joint disorders using a 2.4-mm zero-degree arthroscope. In this prospective study, 6 patients who underwent subtalar arthroscopy from September 2008 to January 2009 in the authors' institution were included. The American Orthopaedic Foot & Ankle Society (AOFAS) hindfoot scores were recorded preoperatively and at 3 and 6 months postoperatively. Mean +/- SD age was 45.5 +/- 16.2 years (range, 27.5-63.2). Postoperative diagnosis included arthrofibrosis, osteoarthritis, and osteochondral disease of the subtalar joint. Mean +/- SD AOFAS scores improved from 49.67 +/- 18.83 (range, 22-76) to 67.33 +/- 14.92 (range, 53-91) at 3 months (P = .03) and 75 +/- 19.74 (range, 54-100) at 6 months (P = .004). Subtalar arthroscopy using the 2.4-mm zero-degree arthroscope shows promising results in the diagnosis and treatment of subtalar pathologies. Patients have a significant improvement in their AOFAS hindfoot scores as early as 3 months and continue to improve subsequently. Usage of the zero-degree arthroscope allows the "instrumentation hand" to maneuver more easily in space and perform the operative procedure without getting in the way of the "camera hand." It can also save on inventory costs for centers that already have the zero-degree arthroscope. The role of specialized imaging is still unclear. Diagnosis of sinus tarsi syndrome should be historical with direct visualization of the joint revealing exact etiology. PMID:20530192

  14. French regional surveillance program of carbapenemase-producing Gram-negative bacilli: results from a 2-year period.

    PubMed

    Pantel, A; Boutet-Dubois, A; Jean-Pierre, H; Marchandin, H; Sotto, A; Lavigne, J-P

    2014-12-01

    In February 2011, the CARB-LR group was created as a sentinel laboratory-based surveillance network to control the emergence of carbapenem-resistant Gram-negative bacilli (CR GNB) in a French Southern Region. We report the epidemiological results of a 2-year study. All the Gram-negative bacilli isolates detected in the different labs (hospital and community settings) of a French Southern Region and with reduced susceptibility to ertapenem and/or imipenem were characterised with regard to antibiotic resistance, bla genes content, repetitive sequence-based polymerase chain reaction (rep-PCR) profiles and multilocus sequence typing (MLST). A total of 221 strains were analysed. Acinetobacter baumannii was the most prevalent carbapenemase-producing bacteria, with a majority of OXA-23 producers (n = 37). One isolate co-produced OXA-23 and OXA-58 enzymes. Klebsiella pneumoniae was the most frequent carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (CPE) (OXA-48 producer: n = 29, KPC producer: n = 1), followed by Escherichia coli (OXA-48 producer: n = 8, KPC producer: n = 1) and Enterobacter cloacae (OXA-48 producer, n = 1). One isolate of Pseudomonas aeruginosa produced a VIM-1 carbapenemase. A clonal diversity of carbapenemase-producing K. pneumoniae and E. coli was noted with different MLSTs. On the other hand, almost all OXA-23-producing A. baumannii strains belonged to the widespread ST2/international clone II. The link between the detection of CR GNB and a foreign country was less obvious, suggesting the beginning of a local cross-transmission. The number of CR GNB cases in our French Southern Region has sharply increased very recently due to the diffusion of OXA-48 producers. PMID:25037867

  15. Emission-Line Galaxies from the PEARS Hubble Ultra Deep Field: A 2-D Detection Method and First Results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gardner, J. P.; Straughn, Amber N.; Meurer, Gerhardt R.; Pirzkal, Norbert; Cohen, Seth H.; Malhotra, Sangeeta; Rhoads, james; Windhorst, Rogier A.; Gardner, Jonathan P.; Hathi, Nimish P.; Xu, Chun; Gronwall, Caryl; Koekemoer, Anton M.; Walsh, Jeremy; diSeregoAlighieri, Sperello

    2007-01-01

    The Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Advanced Camera for Surveys (ACS) grism PEARS (Probing Evolution And Reionization Spectroscopically) survey provides a large dataset of low-resolution spectra from thousands of galaxies in the GOODS North and South fields. One important subset of objects in these data are emission-line galaxies (ELGs), and we have investigated several different methods aimed at systematically selecting these galaxies. Here we present a new methodology and results of a search for these ELGs in the PEARS observations of the Hubble Ultra Deep Field (HUDF) using a 2D detection method that utilizes the observation that many emission lines originate from clumpy knots within galaxies. This 2D line-finding method proves to be useful in detecting emission lines from compact knots within galaxies that might not otherwise be detected using more traditional 1D line-finding techniques. We find in total 96 emission lines in the HUDF, originating from 81 distinct "knots" within 63 individual galaxies. We find in general that [0 1111 emitters are the most common, comprising 44% of the sample, and on average have high equivalent widths (70% of [0 1111 emitters having rest-frame EW> 100A). There are 12 galaxies with multiple emitting knots; several show evidence of variations in H-alpha flux in the knots, suggesting that the differing star formation properties across a single galaxy can in general be probed at redshifts approximately greater than 0.2 - 0.4. The most prevalent morphologies are large face-on spirals and clumpy interacting systems, many being unique detections owing to the 2D method described here, thus highlighting the strength of this technique.

  16. Progression of fibromyalgia: results from a 2-year observational fibromyalgia and chronic pain study in the US

    PubMed Central

    Adams, Edgar H; McElroy, Heather J; Udall, Margarita; Masters, Elizabeth T; Mann, Rachael M; Schaefer, Caroline P; Cappelleri, Joseph C; Clair, Andrew G; Hopps, Markay; Daniel, Shoshana R; Mease, Philip; Silverman, Stuart L; Staud, Roland

    2016-01-01

    Background A previous fibromyalgia (FM) research reports that 20%–47% of diagnosed patients may not meet the study definition of FM 1–2 years after diagnosis. The aim of this study was to gain a better understanding of the progression of FM in a geographically diverse cohort over a 2-year time period. Methods This cohort study followed 226 subjects recruited online to assess FM and chronic widespread pain (CWP) diagnosis stability over time. At enrollment (baseline), subjects provided informed consent, completed an online questionnaire consisting of the London Fibromyalgia Epidemiology Study Screening Questionnaire to screen for CWP (bilateral pain above/below waist lasting ≥1 week in the past 3 months), visited a site for physician evaluation for FM, and completed a questionnaire with validated patient-reported outcome instruments. Subjects were classified into mutually exclusive groups: FM+CWP+ (screened positive for CWP and received physician diagnosis of FM), FM−CWP+ (screened positive for CWP but did not receive physician diagnosis of FM), and FM−CWP− (screened negative for CWP). Approximately 2 years later (follow-up), subjects were reassessed at the same study site and completed a questionnaire with the same patient-reported outcomes. Results Seventy-six FM+CWP+ subjects completed assessments at both time points; 56 (73.7%) met the FM study definition at follow-up. Twenty subjects no longer met the FM study definition (eleven became FM−CWP− and nine became FM−CWP+). Ten subjects (two from FM−CWP− and eight from FM−CWP+) transitioned into the FM+CWP+ group at follow-up; they reported more tender points and pain interference with sleep and worse physical function at baseline compared with subjects who did not transition to FM+CWP+. Most (76.7%) of the subjects who transitioned into/out of FM+CWP+ experienced changes in CWP, number of positive tender points, or both. Conclusion The results suggest that some FM+CWP+ patients experience

  17. Expression of A2V-mutated Aβ in Caenorhabditis elegans results in oligomer formation and toxicity☆

    PubMed Central

    Diomede, Luisa; Di Fede, Giuseppe; Romeo, Margherita; Bagnati, Renzo; Ghidoni, Roberta; Fiordaliso, Fabio; Salio, Monica; Rossi, Alessandro; Catania, Marcella; Paterlini, Anna; Benussi, Luisa; Bastone, Antonio; Stravalaci, Matteo; Gobbi, Marco; Tagliavini, Fabrizio; Salmona, Mario

    2014-01-01

    Although Alzheimer's disease (AD) is usually sporadic, in a small proportion of cases it is familial and can be linked to mutations in β-amyloid precursor protein (APP). Unlike the other genetic defects, the mutation [alanine-673→valine-673] (A673V) causes the disease only in the homozygous condition with enhanced amyloid β (Aβ) production and aggregation; heterozygous carriers remain unaffected. It is not clear how misfolding and aggregation of Aβ is affected in vivo by this mutation and whether this correlates with its toxic effects. No animal models over-expressing the A673V–APP gene or alanine-2-valine (A2V) mutated human Aβ protein are currently available. Using the invertebrate Caenorhabditis elegans, we generated the first transgenic animal model to express the human Aβ1–40 wild-type (WT) in neurons or possess the A2V mutation (Aβ1–40A2V). Insertion of an Aβ-mutated gene into this nematode reproduced the homozygous state of the human pathology. Functional and biochemical characteristics found in the A2V strain were compared to those of transgenic C. elegans expressing Aβ1–40WT. The expression of both WT and A2V Aβ1–40 specifically reduced the nematode's lifespan, causing behavioral defects and neurotransmission impairment which were worse in A2V worms. Mutant animals were more resistant than WT to paralysis induced by the cholinergic agonist levamisole, indicating that the locomotor defect was specifically linked to postsynaptic dysfunctions. The toxicity caused by the mutated protein was associated with a high propensity to form oligomeric assemblies which accumulate in the neurons, suggesting this to be the central event involved in the postsynaptic damage and early onset of the disease in homozygous human A673V carriers. PMID:24184799

  18. Finnish Parental Involvement Ethos, Health Support, Health Education Knowledge and Participation: Results from a 2-Year School Health Intervention

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sormunen, Marjorita; Tossavainen, Kerttu; Turunen, Hannele

    2013-01-01

    A 2-year, participatory action research school health study focused on developing components for home-school partnerships to support children's health learning process. Two intervention schools implemented strengthened health and collaboration-orientated activities; two control schools followed the national core curriculum without extracurricular…

  19. Finnish parental involvement ethos, health support, health education knowledge and participation: results from a 2-year school health intervention.

    PubMed

    Sormunen, Marjorita; Tossavainen, Kerttu; Turunen, Hannele

    2013-04-01

    A 2-year, participatory action research school health study focused on developing components for home-school partnerships to support children's health learning process. Two intervention schools implemented strengthened health and collaboration-orientated activities; two control schools followed the national core curriculum without extracurricular activities. The parents of fourth-grade pupils (10-11 years at baseline) completed questionnaires before intervention in spring 2008 (N = 348) and after intervention in spring 2010 (N = 358). A two-way analysis of variance was conducted to determine whether time (2008/2010) and group (intervention/control) influenced parents' perceptions and experiences of parental involvement, health education and health support received from the school. Compared with controls, the intervention schools' parents experienced greater involvement ethos (Cohen's d = 0.57, P < 0.001), increased knowledge of health education (Cohen's d = 0.60, P = 0.02) and health support (Cohen's d = 0.35, P = 0.02). Health education participation among parents increased only partially during the intervention (Cohen's d = -0.12, P = 0.193). School health interventions based on schools' needs may have the potential to influence positively the relationship between home and school and increase the visibility of health education. The study was undertaken within the Schools for Health in Europe program. PMID:23385382

  20. A diastrophic dysplasia sulfate transporter (SLC26A2) mutant mouse: morphological and biochemical characterization of the resulting chondrodysplasia phenotype.

    PubMed

    Forlino, Antonella; Piazza, Rocco; Tiveron, Cecilia; Della Torre, Sara; Tatangelo, Laura; Bonafè, Luisa; Gualeni, Benedetta; Romano, Assunta; Pecora, Fabio; Superti-Furga, Andrea; Cetta, Giuseppe; Rossi, Antonio

    2005-03-15

    Mutations in the diastrophic dysplasia sulfate transporter (DTDST or SLC26A2) cause a family of recessively inherited chondrodysplasias including, in order of decreasing severity, achondrogenesis 1B, atelosteogenesis 2, diastrophic dysplasia (DTD) and recessive multiple epiphyseal dysplasia. The gene encodes a widely distributed sulfate/chloride antiporter of the cell membrane whose function is crucial for the uptake of inorganic sulfate, which is needed for proteoglycan sulfation. To provide new insights in the pathogenetic mechanisms leading to skeletal and connective tissue dysplasia and to obtain an in vivo model for therapeutic approaches to DTD, we generated a Dtdst knock-in mouse with a partial loss of function of the sulfate transporter. In addition, the intronic neomycine cassette in the mutant allele contributed to the hypomorphic phenotype by inducing abnormal splicing. Homozygous mutant mice were characterized by growth retardation, skeletal dysplasia and joint contractures, thereby recapitulating essential aspects of the DTD phenotype in man. The skeletal phenotype included reduced toluidine blue staining of cartilage, chondrocytes of irregular size, delay in the formation of the secondary ossification center and osteoporosis of long bones. Impaired sulfate uptake was demonstrated in chondrocytes, osteoblasts and fibroblasts. In spite of the generalized nature of the sulfate uptake defect, significant proteoglycan undersulfation was detected only in cartilage. Chondrocyte proliferation and apoptosis studies suggested that reduced proliferation and/or lack of terminal chondrocyte differentiation might contribute to reduced bone growth. The similarity with human DTD makes this mouse strain a useful model to explore pathogenetic and therapeutic aspects of DTDST-related disorders. PMID:15703192

  1. A novel thromboxane A2 receptor N42S variant results in reduced surface expression and platelet dysfunction.

    PubMed

    Nisar, Shaista P; Lordkipanidzé, Marie; Jones, Matthew L; Dawood, Ban; Murden, Sherina; Cunningham, Margaret R; Mumford, Andrew D; Wilde, Jonathan T; Watson, Steve P; Mundell, Stuart J; Lowe, Gillian C

    2014-05-01

    A small number of thromboxane receptor variants have been described in patients with a bleeding history that result in platelet dysfunction. We have identified a patient with a history of significant bleeding, who expresses a novel heterozygous thromboxane receptor variant that predicts an asparagine to serine substitution (N42S). This asparagine is conserved across all class A GPCRs, suggesting a vital role for receptor structure and function.We investigated the functional consequences of the TP receptor heterozygous N42S substitution by performing platelet function studies on platelet-rich plasma taken from the patient and healthy controls. We investigated the N42S mutation by expressing the wild-type (WT) and mutant receptor in human embryonic kidney (HEK) cells. Aggregation studies showed an ablation of arachidonic acid responses in the patient, whilst there was right-ward shift of the U46619 concentration response curve (CRC). Thromboxane generation was unaffected. Calcium mobilisation studies in cells lines showed a rightward shift of the U46619 CRC in N42S-expressing cells compared to WT. Radioligand binding studies revealed a reduction in BMax in platelets taken from the patient and in N42S-expressing cells, whilst cell studies confirmed poor surface expression. We have identified a novel thromboxane receptor variant, N42S, which results in platelet dysfunction due to reduced surface expression. It is associated with a significant bleeding history in the patient in whom it was identified. This is the first description of a naturally occurring variant that results in the substitution of this highly conserved residue and confirms the importance of this residue for correct GPCR function. PMID:24452735

  2. Comparative Results from a CFD Challenge Over a 2D Three-Element High-Lift Airfoil

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Klausmeyer, Steven M.; Lin, John C.

    1997-01-01

    A high-lift workshop was held in May of 1993 at NASA Langley Research Center. A major part of the workshop centered on a blind test of various computational fluid dynamics (CFD) methods in which the flow about a two- dimensional (2D) three-element airfoil was computed without prior knowledge of the experimental data. The results of this 'blind' test revealed: (1) The Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) methods generally showed less variability among codes than did potential/Euler solvers coupled with boundary-layer solution techniques. However, some of the coupled methods still provided excellent predictions. (2) Drag prediction using coupled methods agreed more closely with experiment than the RANS methods. Lift was more accurately predicted than drag for both methods. (3) The CFD methods did well in predicting lift and drag changes due to changes in Reynolds number, however, they did not perform as well when predicting lift and drag increments due to changing flap gap, (4) Pressures and skin friction compared favorably with experiment for most of the codes. (5) There was a large variability in most of the velocity profile predictions. Computational results predict a stronger siat wake than measured suggesting a missing component in turbulence modeling, perhaps curvature effects.

  3. Mars base buildup scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Blacic, J. D.

    1986-01-01

    Two Mars surface based build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second senario, Earth development of an infrastructure to exploit the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first in this scenario relative to the first, but once begun develops rapidly, aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station.

  4. Mars base buildup scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Blacic, J.D.

    1985-01-01

    Two surface base build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second scenario, early development of an infrastructure to exploite the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first, but once begun develops rapidly aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station.

  5. GLOBAL ALTERNATIVE FUTURE SCENARIOS

    EPA Science Inventory

    One way to examine possible future outcomes for environmental protection is through the development and analysis of alternative future scenarios. This type of assessment postulates two or more different paths that social and environmental development might take, using correspond...

  6. Web Based Tool for Mission Operations Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boyles, Carole A.; Bindschadler, Duane L.

    2008-01-01

    A conventional practice for spaceflight projects is to document scenarios in a monolithic Operations Concept document. Such documents can be hundreds of pages long and may require laborious updates. Software development practice utilizes scenarios in the form of smaller, individual use cases, which are often structured and managed using UML. We have developed a process and a web-based scenario tool that utilizes a similar philosophy of smaller, more compact scenarios (but avoids the formality of UML). The need for a scenario process and tool became apparent during the authors' work on a large astrophysics mission. It was noted that every phase of the Mission (e.g., formulation, design, verification and validation, and operations) looked back to scenarios to assess completeness of requirements and design. It was also noted that terminology needed to be clarified and structured to assure communication across all levels of the project. Attempts to manage, communicate, and evolve scenarios at all levels of a project using conventional tools (e.g., Excel) and methods (Scenario Working Group meetings) were not effective given limitations on budget and staffing. The objective of this paper is to document the scenario process and tool created to offer projects a low-cost capability to create, communicate, manage, and evolve scenarios throughout project development. The process and tool have the further benefit of allowing the association of requirements with particular scenarios, establishing and viewing relationships between higher- and lower-level scenarios, and the ability to place all scenarios in a shared context. The resulting structured set of scenarios is widely visible (using a web browser), easily updated, and can be searched according to various criteria including the level (e.g., Project, System, and Team) and Mission Phase. Scenarios are maintained in a web-accessible environment that provides a structured set of scenario fields and allows for maximum

  7. Mission Scenario Development Workbench

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kordon, Mark; Baker, John; Gilbert, John; Hanks, David; Mandutianu, Dan; Hooper, David

    2006-01-01

    The Mission Scenario Development Workbench (MSDW) is a multidisciplinary performance analysis software tool for planning and optimizing space missions. It provides a number of new capabilities that are particularly useful for planning the surface activities on other planets. MSDW enables rapid planning of a space mission and supports flight system and scientific-instrumentation trades. It also provides an estimate of the ability of flight, ground, and science systems to meet high-level mission goals and provides means of evaluating expected mission performance at an early stage of planning in the project life cycle. In MSDW, activity plans and equipment-list spreadsheets are integrated with validated parameterized simulation models of spacecraft systems. In contrast to traditional approaches involving worst-case estimates with large margins, the approach embodied in MSDW affords more flexibility and more credible results early in the lifecycle through the use of validated, variable- fidelity models of spacecraft systems. MSDW is expected to help maximize the scientific return on investment for space missions by understanding early the performance required to have a successful mission while reducing the risk of costly design changes made at late stages in the project life cycle.

  8. EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

    2008-12-01

    worked to bring the experience generated from over four decades of scenario development in other issue domains, including energy and security, to bear on environmental scenarios, and to bring into dialogue scenario practitioners, both producers and users, with social science scholars. The set of contributions to this focus issue of Environmental Research Letters arose out of this workshop and collectively examines key challenges facing the scenario community, synthesizes lessons, and offers recommendations for new research and practice in this field. One theme that emerged in many of the discussions at the workshop revolved around the distinction between two broad perspectives on the goals of scenario exercises: scenarios as products and scenarios as processes. Most global environmental change scenario exercises are product-oriented; the content of the scenarios developed is the main goal of many participants and those who commission or organize the scenario development process. Typically, what is of most interest are the environmental outcomes produced, how they relate to the various factors driving them, and what the results tell us about the prospects for future environmental change, for impacts, and for mitigation. A product-oriented perspective assumes that once produced, scenario products have lives of their own, divorced from the processes that generated them and able to serve multiple, often unspecified purposes. Thus, it is often assumed that the scenario products can be 'taken up' by a variety of users in a variety of fora. A contrasting scenario approach is process-oriented and self-consciously privileges the process of scenario development as the primary goal, for example as a means to motivate organizational learning, find commonalities across different perspectives, achieve consensus on goals, or come to a shared understanding of challenges. Focusing on scenarios as processes highlights the social contexts in which scenarios are created and used. Process

  9. Scenarios for gluino coannihilation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ellis, John; Evans, Jason L.; Luo, Feng; Olive, Keith A.

    2016-02-01

    We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in particular, as well as the appearance of other dark matter (co)annihilation processes. Nevertheless, LSP masses m χ ≲ 8 TeV with the correct dark matter density are quite possible. In the case of pure gravity mediation with additional vector-like supermultiplets, changes to the anomaly- mediated gluino mass and the threshold effects associated with these states can make the gluino almost degenerate with the LSP, and we find a similar upper bound.

  10. BCube Ocean Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santoro, Mattia; Schofield, Oscar; Pearlman, Jay; Nativi, Stefano

    2015-04-01

    To address complex Earth system issues such as climate change and water resources, geoscientists must work across disciplinary boundaries; this requires them to access data outside of their fields. Scientists are being called upon to find, access, and use diverse and voluminous data types that are described with semantics. Within the framework of the NSF EarthCube programme, the BCube project (A Broker Framework for Next Generation Geoscience) is addressing the need for effective and efficient multi-disciplinary collaboration and interoperability through the advancement of brokering technologies. BCube develops science scenarios as key elements in providing an environment for demonstrating capabilities, benefits, and challenges of the developed e-infrastructure. The initial focus is on hydrology, oceans, polar and weather, with the intent to make the technology applicable and available to all the geosciences. This presentation focuses on the BCube ocean scenario. The purpose of this scenario is to increase the understanding of the ocean dynamics through incorporation of a wide range of in-situ and satellite data into ocean models using net primary productivity as the initial variable. The science scenario aims to identify spatial and temporal domains in ocean models, and key ecological variables. Field data sets and remote observations data sets from distributed and heterogeneous systems are accessed through the broker and will be incorporated into the models. In this work we will present the achievements in the development of the BCube ocean scenario.

  11. Projections of uncertainties in climate change scenarios into expected winter wheat yields

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trnka, M.; Dubrovský, M.; Semerádová, D.; Žalud, Z.

    The crop model CERES-Wheat in combination with the stochastic weather generator were used to quantify the effect of uncertainties in selected climate change scenarios on the yields of winter wheat, which is the most important European cereal crop. Seven experimental sites with the high quality experimental data were selected in order to evaluate the crop model and to carry out the climate change impact analysis. The analysis was based on the multi-year crop model simulations run with the daily weather series prepared by the stochastic weather generator. Seven global circulation models (GCMs) were used to derive the climate change scenarios. In addition, seven GCM-based scenarios were averaged in order to derive the average scenario (AVG). The scenarios were constructed for three time periods (2025, 2050 and 2100) and two SRES emission scenarios (A2 and B1). The simulated results showed that: (1) Wheat yields tend to increase (40 out of 42 applied scenarios) in most locations in the range of 7.5-25.3% in all three time periods. In case of the CCSR scenario that predicts the most severe increase of air temperature, the yields would be reduced by 9.6% in 2050 and by 25.8% in 2100 if the A2 emission scenario would become reality. Differences between individual scenarios are large and statistically significant. Particularly for the time periods 2050 and 2100 there are doubts about the trend of the yield shifts. (2) The site effect was caused by the site-specific soil and climatic conditions. Importance of the site influence increases with increasing severity of imposed climatic changes and culminates for the emission scenario A2 and the time period 2100. The sustained tendency benefiting two warmest sites has been found as well as more positive response to the changed climatic conditions of the sites with deeper soil profiles. (3) Temperature variability proved to be an important factor and influenced both mean and standard deviation of the yields. Change of temperature

  12. Modeling Future Land Use Scenarios in South Korea: Applying the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and the SLEUTH Model on a Local Scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

    2015-05-01

    This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of `best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

  13. Attractive scenario writing.

    PubMed

    Takahashi, Yuzo; Oku, Sachiko Alexandra

    2009-05-01

    This article describes the key steps of scenario writing to facilitate problem-based learning discussion to aid student learning of basic medical science in combination with clinical medicine. The scenario has to amplify and deepen the students' thinking so that they can correlate findings from the case and knowledge from textbooks. This can be achieved in three ways: (1) a comparison of cases; (2) demonstrating a scientific link between symptoms and basic medicine; and (3) introducing a personal and emotional aspect to the scenario. A comparison of two cases enables us to shed light on the pathological differences and think about the underlying biological mechanisms. These include: (a) a comparison of two cases with similar symptoms, but different diseases; (b) a comparison of two cases with different symptoms, but the same cause; and (c) a comparison of two cases, with an easy case, followed by a complicated case. The scenarios may be disclosed in a sequence to show a scientific link between symptoms of the patient and basic medicine, which may help to cultivate a physician with a scientific mind. Examples are given by the relationship between: (a) symptoms, pathology and morphology; and (b) symptoms, pathology and physiology. When the scenario is written in such a way that students are personally and/or emotionally involved in the case, they will be more motivated in learning as if involved in the case themselves. To facilitate this, the scenario can be written in the first-person perspective. Examples include "I had a very bad headache, and vomited several times...", and "I noticed that my father was screaming at night...". The description of the events may be in chronological order with actual time, which makes students feel as if they are really the primary responding person. PMID:19502145

  14. Results.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zemsky, Robert; Shaman, Susan; Shapiro, Daniel B.

    2001-01-01

    Describes the Collegiate Results Instrument (CRI), which measures a range of collegiate outcomes for alumni 6 years after graduation. The CRI was designed to target alumni from institutions across market segments and assess their values, abilities, work skills, occupations, and pursuit of lifelong learning. (EV)

  15. The changing nutrition scenario.

    PubMed

    Gopalan, C

    2013-09-01

    The past seven decades have seen remarkable shifts in the nutritional scenario in India. Even up to the 1950s severe forms of malnutrition such as kwashiorkar and pellagra were endemic. As nutritionists were finding home-grown and common-sense solutions for these widespread problems, the population was burgeoning and food was scarce. The threat of widespread household food insecurity and chronic undernutrition was very real. Then came the Green Revolution. Shortages of food grains disappeared within less than a decade and India became self-sufficient in food grain production. But more insidious problems arising from this revolution were looming, and cropping patterns giving low priority to coarse grains and pulses, and monocropping led to depletion of soil nutrients and 'Green Revolution fatigue'. With improved household food security and better access to health care, clinical manifestations of severe malnutrition virtually disappeared. But the decline in chronic undernutrition and "hidden hunger" from micronutrient deficiencies was slow. On the cusp of the new century, an added factor appeared on the nutritional scene in India. With steady urban migration, upward mobility out of poverty, and an increasingly sedentary lifestyle because of improvements in technology and transport, obesity rates began to increase, resulting in a dual burden. Measured in terms of its performance in meeting its Millennium Development Goals, India has fallen short. Despite its continuing high levels of poverty and illiteracy, India has a huge demographic potential in the form of a young population. This advantage must be leveraged by investing in nutrition education, household access to nutritious diets, sanitary environment and a health-promoting lifestyle. This requires co-operation from all the stakeholders, including governments, non government organizations, scientists and the people at large. PMID:24135189

  16. The changing nutrition scenario

    PubMed Central

    Gopalan, C.

    2013-01-01

    The past seven decades have seen remarkable shifts in the nutritional scenario in India. Even up to the 1950s severe forms of malnutrition such as kwashiorkar and pellagra were endemic. As nutritionists were finding home-grown and common-sense solutions for these widespread problems, the population was burgeoning and food was scarce. The threat of widespread household food insecurity and chronic undernutrition was very real. Then came the Green Revolution. Shortages of food grains disappeared within less than a decade and India became self-sufficient in food grain production. But more insidious problems arising from this revolution were looming, and cropping patterns giving low priority to coarse grains and pulses, and monocropping led to depletion of soil nutrients and ‘Green Revolution fatigue’. With improved household food security and better access to health care, clinical manifestations of severe malnutrition virtually disappeared. But the decline in chronic undernutrition and “hidden hunger” from micronutrient deficiencies was slow. On the cusp of the new century, an added factor appeared on the nutritional scene in India. With steady urban migration, upward mobility out of poverty, and an increasingly sedentary lifestyle because of improvements in technology and transport, obesity rates began to increase, resulting in a dual burden. Measured in terms of its performance in meeting its Millennium Development Goals, India has fallen short. Despite its continuing high levels of poverty and illiteracy, India has a huge demographic potential in the form of a young population. This advantage must be leveraged by investing in nutrition education, household access to nutritious diets, sanitary environment and a health-promoting lifestyle. This requires co-operation from all the stakeholders, including governments, non government organizations, scientists and the people at large. PMID:24135189

  17. Biomass Scenario Model

    SciTech Connect

    2015-09-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique, carefully validated, state-of-the-art dynamic model of the domestic biofuels supply chain which explicitly focuses on policy issues, their feasibility, and potential side effects. It integrates resource availability, physical/technological/economic constraints, behavior, and policy. The model uses a system dynamics simulation (not optimization) to model dynamic interactions across the supply chain.

  18. TEMPERATURE SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT USING REGRESSION METHODS

    EPA Science Inventory

    A method of developing scenarios of future temperature conditions resulting from climatic change is presented. he method is straightforward and can be used to provide information about daily temperature variations and diurnal ranges, monthly average high, and low temperatures, an...

  19. The big bang as a result of the first-order phase transition driven by a change of the scalar curvature in an expanding early Universe: The "hyperinflation" scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pashitskii, E. A.; Pentegov, V. I.

    2016-01-01

    We suggest that the Big Bang could be a result of the first-order phase transition driven by a change in the scalar curvature of the 4D spacetime in an expanding cold Universe filled with a nonlinear scalar field φ and neutral matter with an equation of state p = νɛ (where p and ɛ are the pressure and energy density of the matter, respectively). We consider the Lagrangian of a scalar field with nonlinearity φ4 in a curved spacetime that, along with the term-ξ R|φ|2 quadratic in φ (where ξ is the interaction constant between the scalar and gravitational fields and R is the scalar curvature), contains the term ξ Rφ0(φ + φ+) linear in φ, where φ0 is the vacuum mean of the scalar field amplitude. As a consequence, the condition for the existence of extrema of the scalar-field potential energy is reduced to an equation cubic in φ. Provided that ν > 1/3, the scalar curvature R = [κ(3ν-1)ɛ-4Λ] (where κ and Λ are Einstein's gravitational and cosmological constants, respectively) decreases with decreasing ɛ as the Universe expands, and a first-order phase transition in variable "external field" parameter proportional to R occurs at some critical value R c < 0. Under certain conditions, the critical radius of the early Universe at the point of the first-order phase transition can reach an arbitrary large value, so that this scenario of unrestricted "inflation" of the Universe may be called "hyperinflation." After the passage through the phase-transition point, the scalar-field potential energy should be rapidly released, which must lead to strong heating of the Universe, playing the role of the Big Bang.

  20. Scripting Scenarios for the Human Patient Simulator

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bacal, Kira; Miller, Robert; Doerr, Harold

    2004-01-01

    The Human Patient Simulator (HPS) is particularly useful in providing scenario-based learning which can be tailored to fit specific scenarios and which can be modified in realtime to enhance the teaching environment. Scripting these scenarios so as to maximize learning requires certain skills, in order to ensure that a change in student performance, understanding, critical thinking, and/or communication skills results. Methods: A "good" scenario can be defined in terms of applicability, learning opportunities, student interest, and clearly associated metrics. Obstacles to such a scenario include a lack of understanding of the applicable environment by the scenario author(s), a desire (common among novices) to cover too many topics, failure to define learning objectives, mutually exclusive or confusing learning objectives, unskilled instructors, poor preparation , disorganized approach, or an inappropriate teaching philosophy (such as "trial by fire" or education through humiliation). Results: Descriptions of several successful teaching programs, used in the military, civilian, and NASA medical environments , will be provided, along with sample scenarios. Discussion: Simulator-based lessons have proven to be a time- and cost-efficient manner by which to educate medical personnel. Particularly when training for medical care in austere environments (pre-hospital, aeromedical transport, International Space Station, military operations), the HPS can enhance the learning experience.

  1. Double half-cone flap umbilicoplasty for proboscoid umbilical hernia in a 2 years old child with satisfactory results 2 years later

    PubMed Central

    Ashu, Eseme Ebai; Leroy, Guifo Marc; Aristide, Bang Guy; Joss, Bitang Mafok Louis; Bonaventure, Jemea; Patrick, Savom Eric; Myriam, Fotso Guegne

    2015-01-01

    Surgical repair of large umbilical hernias may present a challenging surgical problem; standard surgical techniques have proven to be inadequate for both closing the fascial defect of the umbilicus and providing a satisfactory cosmetic result. We describe here a case of double half-cone flap umbilicoplasty that was performed in a 2 years old boy. The case of a 2 years old child with proboscoid umbilical hernia. The protruding umbilical skin was excised sharply by two V-shaped cuts leaving two half cones, a short cephalic (0.5cm) and a long caudal (1cm). A classic herniotomy was carried out, with repair of the facial defect. The caudal half cone was sutured from its apex till half it's length upon itself with interrupted sutures and it was anchored deeply to the fascia. Then we inverted the cephalic half cone which was sutured to the caudal cone to form the new umbilicus. The early result was excellent with no complications and the result after 2years revealed a cosmetically satisfactory shape of the umbilicus. this technique provides a good solution for reconstruction of the protruding umbilical skin and it is easy to learn, easy to be taught and perform in surgical environments and may be applicable for any kind of umbilical reconstruction. PMID:26664545

  2. Scenario Planning for Coastal Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parris, A.; Obeysekera, J.; Knuuti, K.; Moss, R. H.; Horton, R. M.; Weiss, J. L.

    2012-12-01

    Sea level rise (SLR) is a persistent environmental change observed globally for more than a century, and its expected continuation poses significant challenges to the United States (US). We summarize a process associated with the United States National Climate Assessment for identifying four scenarios of global mean sea level rise (SLR). The main finding is that global mean sea level is expected to rise no less than 0.2 meters and no more than 2.0 meters by the end of the century. Recent publications suggest that a 4 C world would result in global mean SLR towards the upper end of that range. Aside from this process, there is currently no coordinated, interagency effort in the US to identify agreed upon global mean sea level rise projections for the purpose of coastal planning, policy, and management. This is an important gap because identifying global mean SLR estimates is a critical step in assessing coastal impacts and vulnerabilities. At present, coastal managers are left to identify global SLR estimates through their own interpretation of the scientific literature or the advice of experts on an ad-hoc basis. Yet, relative SLR at over one hundred tide gages (~80%) along the US coast reflect the global trend (1.7 - 3.2 mm/yr). No widely accepted method is currently available for producing probabilistic projections of SLR at actionable scales (i.e., regional to local). The desire to have a most probable or likely outcome can lead to paralysis or inaction for coastal decision-making. Given the range of uncertainty in future global SLR, scenario planning offers an opportunity to overcome decision-making paralysis and initiate actions now that may reduce future impacts and vulnerabilities. Scenarios do not predict future changes, but describe future potential conditions in a manner that supports decision-making under uncertainty. Using multiple scenarios, none more likely than the other, encourages experts and decision makers to rehearse multiple, plausible futures

  3. Evolving practices in environmental scenarios: a new scenario typology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilkinson, Angela; Eidinow, Esther

    2008-10-01

    A new approach to scenarios focused on environmental concerns, changes and challenges, i.e. so-called 'environmental scenarios', is necessary if global environmental changes are to be more effectively appreciated and addressed through sustained and collaborative action. On the basis of a comparison of previous approaches to global environmental scenarios and a review of existing scenario typologies, we propose a new scenario typology to help guide scenario-based interventions. This typology makes explicit the types of and/or the approaches to knowledge ('the epistemologies') which underpin a scenario approach. Drawing on previous environmental scenario projects, we distinguish and describe two main types in this new typology: 'problem-focused' and 'actor-centric'. This leads in turn to our suggestion for a third type, which we call 'RIMA'—'reflexive interventionist or multi-agent based'. This approach to scenarios emphasizes the importance of the involvement of different epistemologies in a scenario-based process of action learning in the public interest. We suggest that, by combining the epistemologies apparent in the previous two types, this approach can create a more effective bridge between longer-term thinking and more immediate actions. Our description is aimed at scenario practitioners in general, as well as those who work with (environmental) scenarios that address global challenges.

  4. Spent fuel receipt scenarios study

    SciTech Connect

    Ballou, L.B.; Montan, D.N.; Revelli, M.A.

    1990-09-01

    This study reports on the results of an assignment from the DOE Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management to evaluate of the effects of different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel on the potential performance of the waste packages in the proposed Yucca Mountain high-level waste repository. The initial evaluations were performed and an interim letter report was prepared during the fall of 1988. Subsequently, the scope of work was expanded and additional analyses were conducted in 1989. This report combines the results of the two phases of the activity. This study is a part of a broader effort to investigate the options available to the DOE and the nuclear utilities for selection of spent fuel for acceptance into the Federal Waste Management System for disposal. Each major element of the system has evaluated the effects of various options on its own operations, with the objective of providing the basis for performing system-wide trade-offs and determining an optimum acceptance scenario. Therefore, this study considers different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel by the repository only from the narrow perspective of their effect on the very-near-field temperatures in the repository following permanent closure. This report is organized into three main sections. The balance of this section is devoted to a statement of the study objective, a summary of the assumptions. The second section of the report contains a discussion of the major elements of the study. The third section summarizes the results of the study and draws some conclusions from them. The appendices include copies of the waste acceptance schedule and the existing and projected spent fuel inventory that were used in the study. 10 refs., 27 figs.

  5. EXAMPLE EXPOSURE SCENARIOS ASSESSMENT TOOL

    EPA Science Inventory

    Exposure scenarios are a tool to help the assessor develop estimates of exposure, dose, and risk. An exposure scenario generally includes facts, data, assumptions, inferences, and sometimes professional judgment about how the exposure takes place. The human physiological and beh...

  6. The minimal scenario of leptogenesis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blanchet, Steve; Di Bari, Pasquale

    2012-12-01

    We review the main features and results of thermal leptogenesis within the type I seesaw mechanism, the minimal extension of the Standard Model explaining neutrino masses and mixing. After presenting the simplest approach, the vanilla scenario, we discuss various important developments of recent years, such as the inclusion of lepton and heavy neutrino flavour effects, a description beyond a hierarchical heavy neutrino mass spectrum and an improved kinetic description within the density matrix and the closed-time-path formalisms. We also discuss how leptogenesis can ultimately represent an important phenomenological tool to test the seesaw mechanism and the underlying model of new physics.

  7. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

    SciTech Connect

    Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

    2014-04-01

    Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

  8. Viral hepatitis: Indian scenario.

    PubMed

    Satsangi, Sandeep; Chawla, Yogesh K

    2016-07-01

    Viral hepatitis is a cause for major health care burden in India and is now equated as a threat comparable to the "big three" communicable diseases - HIV/AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis. Hepatitis A virus and Hepatitis E virus are predominantly enterically transmitted pathogens and are responsible to cause both sporadic infections and epidemics of acute viral hepatitis. Hepatitis B virus and Hepatitis C virus are predominantly spread via parenteral route and are notorious to cause chronic hepatitis which can lead to grave complications including cirrhosis of liver and hepatocellular carcinoma. Around 400 million people all over the world suffer from chronic hepatitis and the Asia-Pacific region constitutes the epicentre of this epidemic. The present article would aim to cover the basic virologic aspects of these viruses and highlight the present scenario of viral hepatitis in India. PMID:27546957

  9. EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

    2008-12-01

    worked to bring the experience generated from over four decades of scenario development in other issue domains, including energy and security, to bear on environmental scenarios, and to bring into dialogue scenario practitioners, both producers and users, with social science scholars. The set of contributions to this focus issue of Environmental Research Letters arose out of this workshop and collectively examines key challenges facing the scenario community, synthesizes lessons, and offers recommendations for new research and practice in this field. One theme that emerged in many of the discussions at the workshop revolved around the distinction between two broad perspectives on the goals of scenario exercises: scenarios as products and scenarios as processes. Most global environmental change scenario exercises are product-oriented; the content of the scenarios developed is the main goal of many participants and those who commission or organize the scenario development process. Typically, what is of most interest are the environmental outcomes produced, how they relate to the various factors driving them, and what the results tell us about the prospects for future environmental change, for impacts, and for mitigation. A product-oriented perspective assumes that once produced, scenario products have lives of their own, divorced from the processes that generated them and able to serve multiple, often unspecified purposes. Thus, it is often assumed that the scenario products can be 'taken up' by a variety of users in a variety of fora. A contrasting scenario approach is process-oriented and self-consciously privileges the process of scenario development as the primary goal, for example as a means to motivate organizational learning, find commonalities across different perspectives, achieve consensus on goals, or come to a shared understanding of challenges. Focusing on scenarios as processes highlights the social contexts in which scenarios are created and used. Process

  10. Europa Explorer Operational Scenarios Development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lock, Robert E.; Pappalardo, Robert T.; Clark, Karla B.

    2008-01-01

    In 2007, NASA conducted four advanced mission concept studies for outer planets targets: Europa, Ganymede, Titan and Enceladus. The studies were conducted in close cooperation with the planetary science community. Of the four, the Europa Explorer Concept Study focused on refining mission options, science trades and implementation details for a potential flagship mission to Europa in the 2015 timeframe. A science definition team (SDT) was appointed by NASA to guide the study. A JPL-led engineering team worked closely with the science team to address 3 major focus areas: 1) credible cost estimates, 2) rationale and logical discussion of radiation risk and mitigation approaches, and 3) better definition and exploration of science operational scenario trade space. This paper will address the methods and results of the collaborative process used to develop Europa Explorer operations scenarios. Working in concert with the SDT, and in parallel with the SDT's development of a science value matrix, key mission capabilities and constraints were challenged by the science and engineering members of the team. Science goals were advanced and options were considered for observation scenarios. Data collection and return strategies were tested via simulation, and mission performance was estimated and balanced with flight and ground system resources and science priorities. The key to this successful collaboration was a concurrent development environment in which all stakeholders could rapidly assess the feasibility of strategies for their success in the full system context. Issues of science and instrument compatibility, system constraints, and mission opportunities were treated analytically and objectively leading to complementary strategies for observation and data return. Current plans are that this approach, as part of the system engineering process, will continue as the Europa Explorer Concept Study moves toward becoming a development project.

  11. Combination of Face Regions in Forensic Scenarios.

    PubMed

    Tome, Pedro; Fierrez, Julian; Vera-Rodriguez, Ruben; Ortega-Garcia, Javier

    2015-07-01

    This article presents an experimental analysis of the combination of different regions of the human face on various forensic scenarios to generate scientific knowledge useful for the forensic experts. Three scenarios of interest at different distances are considered comparing mugshot and CCTV face images using MORPH and SC face databases. One of the main findings is that inner facial regions combine better in mugshot and close CCTV scenarios and outer facial regions combine better in far CCTV scenarios. This means, that depending of the acquisition distance, the discriminative power of the facial regions change, having in some cases better performance than the full face. This effect can be exploited by considering the fusion of facial regions which results in a very significant improvement of the discriminative performance compared to just using the full face. PMID:26189995

  12. What is the difference between a 2, 3, 4, or 5 °C world and how good are we at telling this difference? Results from ISI-MIP the first Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frieler, K.; Huber, V.; Piontek, F.; Schewe, J.; Serdeczny, O.; Warszawski, L.

    2012-12-01

    The Inter-sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) aims to synthesize the state-of-the-art knowledge of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming. Over 25 climate impact modelling teams from around the world, working within the agriculture, water, biomes, infrastructure and health sectors, are collaborating to find answers to the question "What is the difference between a 2, 3, 4, or 5 °C world and how good are we at telling this difference?". The analysis is based on common, bias-corrected climate projections, and socio-economic pathways. The first, fast-tracked phase of the ISI-MIP has a focus on global impact models. The project's experimental design is formulated to distinguish the uncertainty introduced by the impact models themselves, from the inherent uncertainty in the climate projections and the variety of plausible socio-economic futures. Novel metrics, developed to emphasize societal impacts, will be used to identify regional 'hot-spots' of climate change impacts, as well as to quantify the cross-sectoral impact of the increasing frequency of extreme events in future climates. We present here first results from the Fast-Track phase of the project covering impact simulations in the biomes, agriculture and water sectors, in which the societal impacts of climate change are quantified for different levels of global warming. We also discuss the design of the scenario set-up and impact indicators chosen to suit the unique cross-sectoral, multi-model nature of the project.

  13. Simulation of selected ground-water pumping scenarios at Fort Stewart and Hunter Army Airfield, Georgia

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cherry, Gregory S.

    2006-01-01

    A regional MODFLOW ground-water flow model of parts of coastal Georgia, Florida, and South Carolina was used to evaluate the effects of current and hypothetical groundwater withdrawal, and the relative effects of pumping in specific areas on ground-water flow in the Upper Floridan aquifer near Fort Stewart and Hunter Army Airfield (HAAF), coastal Georgia. Simulation results for four steady-state pumping scenarios were compared to each other and to a Base Case condition. The Base Case represents year 2000 pumping rates throughout the model area, with the exception that permitted annual average pumping rates for the year 2005 were used for 26 production wells at Fort Stewart and HAAF. The four pumping scenarios focused on pumping increases at HAAF resulting from projected future demands and additional personnel stationed at the facility and on reductions in pumping at Fort Stewart. Scenarios A and B simulate 1- and 2-million-gallon-perday (Mgal/d) increases, respectively, at HAAF. Simulated water-level change maps for these scenarios indicate an area of influence that extends into parts of Bryan, Bulloch, Chatham, Effingham, and Liberty Counties, Ga., and Beaufort and Jasper Counties, S.C., with maximum drawdowns from 0.5 to 4 feet (ft) for scenario A and 1 to 8 ft for Scenario B. For scenarios C and D, increases in pumping at HAAF were offset by decreases in pumping at Fort Stewart. Scenario C represents a 1-Mgal/d increase at HAAF and a 1-Mgal/d decrease at Fort Stewart; simulated water-level changes range from 0.4 to -4 ft. Scenario D represents a 2-Mgal/d increase at HAAF and 2-Mgal/d decrease at Fort Stewart; simulated water-level changes range from 0.04 to -8 ft. The simulated water-level changes indicate an area of influence that extends into parts of Bryan, Bulloch, Chatham, Effingham, Liberty, and McIntosh Counties, Ga., and Jasper and Beaufort Counties, S.C. In general, decreasing pumping at Fort Stewart by an equivalent amount to pumping increases at HAAF

  14. Scenarios for coastal vulnerability assessment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nicholls, Robert J.; Woodroffe, Colin D.; Burkett, Virginia; Hay, John; Wong, Poh Poh; Nurse, Leonard

    2011-01-01

    Coastal vulnerability assessments tend to focus mainly on climate change and especially on sea-level rise. Assessment of the influence of nonclimatic environmental change or socioeconomic change is less well developed and these drivers are often completely ignored. Given that the most profound coastal changes of the twentieth century due to nonclimate drivers are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission. It may result in not only overstating the importance of climate change but also overlooking significant interactions of climate change and other drivers. To support the development of policies relating to climate change and coastal management, integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the effects of all the relevant drivers. This chapter explores the development of scenarios (or "plausible futures") of relevant climate and nonclimate drivers that can be used for coastal analysis, with an emphasis on the nonclimate drivers. It shows the importance of analyzing the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise in a broader context of coastal change and all its drivers. This will improve the analysis of impacts, key vulnerabilities, and adaptation needs and, hence, inform climate and coastal policy. Stakeholder engagement is important in the development of scenarios, and the underlying assumptions need to be explicit, transparent, and open to scientific debate concerning their uncertainties/realism and likelihood.

  15. Optimizing Decision Preparedness by Adapting Scenario Complexity and Automating Scenario Generation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dunne, Rob; Schatz, Sae; Flore, Stephen M.; Nicholson, Denise

    2011-01-01

    Klein's recognition-primed decision (RPD) framework proposes that experts make decisions by recognizing similarities between current decision situations and previous decision experiences. Unfortunately, military personnel arQ often presented with situations that they have not experienced before. Scenario-based training (S8T) can help mitigate this gap. However, SBT remains a challenging and inefficient training approach. To address these limitations, the authors present an innovative formulation of scenario complexity that contributes to the larger research goal of developing an automated scenario generation system. This system will enable trainees to effectively advance through a variety of increasingly complex decision situations and experiences. By adapting scenario complexities and automating generation, trainees will be provided with a greater variety of appropriately calibrated training events, thus broadening their repositories of experience. Preliminary results from empirical testing (N=24) of the proof-of-concept formula are presented, and future avenues of scenario complexity research are also discussed.

  16. Radiation Detection Computational Benchmark Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Shaver, Mark W.; Casella, Andrew M.; Wittman, Richard S.; McDonald, Ben S.

    2013-09-24

    Modeling forms an important component of radiation detection development, allowing for testing of new detector designs, evaluation of existing equipment against a wide variety of potential threat sources, and assessing operation performance of radiation detection systems. This can, however, result in large and complex scenarios which are time consuming to model. A variety of approaches to radiation transport modeling exist with complementary strengths and weaknesses for different problems. This variety of approaches, and the development of promising new tools (such as ORNL’s ADVANTG) which combine benefits of multiple approaches, illustrates the need for a means of evaluating or comparing different techniques for radiation detection problems. This report presents a set of 9 benchmark problems for comparing different types of radiation transport calculations, identifying appropriate tools for classes of problems, and testing and guiding the development of new methods. The benchmarks were drawn primarily from existing or previous calculations with a preference for scenarios which include experimental data, or otherwise have results with a high level of confidence, are non-sensitive, and represent problem sets of interest to NA-22. From a technical perspective, the benchmarks were chosen to span a range of difficulty and to include gamma transport, neutron transport, or both and represent different important physical processes and a range of sensitivity to angular or energy fidelity. Following benchmark identification, existing information about geometry, measurements, and previous calculations were assembled. Monte Carlo results (MCNP decks) were reviewed or created and re-run in order to attain accurate computational times and to verify agreement with experimental data, when present. Benchmark information was then conveyed to ORNL in order to guide testing and development of hybrid calculations. The results of those ADVANTG calculations were then sent to PNNL for

  17. SU-E-CAMPUS-T-05: Preliminary Results On a 2D Dosimetry System Based On the Optically Stimulated Luminescence of Al2O3

    SciTech Connect

    Ahmed, M; Eller, S; Yukihara, E; Schnell, E; Ahmad, S; Akselrod, M; Hanson, O

    2014-06-15

    Purpose: To develop a precise 2D dose mapping technique based on the optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) from Al{sub 2}O{sub 3} films for medical applications. Methods: A 2D laser scanning reader was developed using fast F{sup +}-center (lifetime of <7 ns) and slow F-center (lifetime of 35 ms) OSL emission from newly developed Al{sub 2}O{sub 3} films (Landauer Inc.). An algorithm was developed to correct images for both material and system properties. Since greater contribution of the F??-center emission in the recorded signal increases the readout efficiency and robustness of image corrections, Al{sub 2}O{sub 3}:C,Mg film samples are being investigated in addition to Al{sub 2}O{sub 3}:C samples. Preliminary investigations include exposure of the films to a 6 MV photon beam at 10 cm depth in solid water phantom with an SSD of 100 cm, using a 10 cm × 10 cm flat field or a 4 cm × 4 cm field with a 60° wedge filter. Kodak EDR2 radiographic film and EBT2 Gafchromic film were also exposed for comparison. Results: The results indicate that the algorithm is able to correct images and calculate 2D dose. For the wedge field irradiation, the calculated dose at the center of the field was 0.9 Gy for Al{sub 2}O{sub 3}:C and 0.87 Gy for Al{sub 2}O{sub 3}:C,Mg, whereas, the delivered dose was 0.95 Gy. A good qualitative agreement of the dose profiles was obtained between the OSL films and EDR2 and EBT2 films. Laboratory tests using a beta source suggest that a large dynamic range (10{sup −2}−10{sup 2} Gy) can be achieved using this technique. Conclusion: A 2D dosimetry system and an in-house image correction algorithm were developed for 2D film dosimetry in medical applications. The system is in the preliminary stage of development, but the data demonstrates the feasibility of this approach. This work was supported by Landauer, Inc.

  18. COL1A1 and COL1A2 sequencing results in cohort of patients undergoing evaluation for potential child abuse.

    PubMed

    Zarate, Yuri A; Clingenpeel, Rachel; Sellars, Elizabeth A; Tang, Xinyu; Kaylor, Julie A; Bosanko, Katherine; Linam, Leann E; Byers, Peter H

    2016-07-01

    Child abuse is a major public health concern that can explain a proportion of fractures in children. Osteogenesis imperfecta (OI) is the most common inherited syndrome that predisposes to skeletal fractures. We conducted a retrospective analysis of data from clinical, laboratory, and radiographic information from children evaluated for child abuse in which molecular testing for COL1A1 and COL1A2 genes was conducted. A total of 43 patients underwent molecular testing for OI. Pathogenic variants predicted to result in a mild form of OI were found in two patients (5%), both clinically suspected to have this diagnosis. None of the cases in whom OI molecular testing was ordered when maltreatment concerns were thought to be more likely (0/35) were identified to have pathogenic variants. After reviewing each individual case, the final diagnosis was child abuse for 34 cases (77%), and additional radiographic and laboratory studies did not identify any with inherited metabolic predisposition to fracture or rickets. We conclude that routine testing for OI in the setting of child abuse when no other suggestive clinical findings are present has a low yield. A careful review of the medical history and a detailed clinical evaluation help identify those at risk for genetic alterations. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:27090748

  19. Development of a super-pressure balloon with a diamond-shaped net --- result of a ground inflation test of a 2,000 cubic-meter balloon ---

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saito, Yoshitaka; Nakashino, Kyoichi; Akita, Daisuke; Matsushima, Kiyoho; Shimadu, Shigeyuki; Goto, Ken; Hashimoto, Hiroyuki; Matsuo, Takuma

    2016-07-01

    A light super-pressure balloon has been developed using a method to cover a balloon with a diamond-shaped net of high-tensile fibers. The goal is to fly a payload of 900 kg to the altitude of 37 km with a 300,000 m^{3} balloon. Beginning from a demonstration test of the net-balloon with a 10 m^{3} balloon in 2010, we have been polished the net-balloon through ground inflation tests and flight tests, including a flight test of a 3,000 m ^{3} balloon in the tandem balloon configuration with a 15,000 m^{3} zero-pressure balloon in 2012, and a flight test of a 10 m^{3} balloon in the tandem balloon configuration with a 2 kg rubber balloon in 2013, as reported in the last COSPAR. In 2014, we developed a 5,000 m^{3} balloon and performed a ground inflation test to find that the balloon burst from a lip panel for termination with a differential pressure of 425 Pa. It was due to a stress concentration at the edge of a thick tape attached along the termination mechanism. In 2015, we modified the balloon by adding tapes on the lip panel to avoid the stress concentration, and also shorten the net length to leave some margin of the film and performed a ground inflation test again to find the balloon showed asymmetrical deployment and burst from the edge of the net with a differential pressure of 348 Pa. We consider it is due to the margin of the film along the circumferential direction, and proposed a gore shape which circumference length is kept as determined by the pumpkin shape of the balloon but setting meridian length longer than that. We developed a 10 m^{3} balloon with the gore design to find that the balloon deployed symmetrically and showed the burst pressure of 10,000 Pa. In 2016, we are going to develop a 2,000 m^{3} balloon with the gore design and perform its ground inflation test. In this paper, we are going to report its result with the sequence of the development.

  20. Industrial research for transmutation scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Camarcat, Noel; Garzenne, Claude; Le Mer, Joël; Leroyer, Hadrien; Desroches, Estelle; Delbecq, Jean-Michel

    2011-04-01

    This article presents the results of research scenarios for americium transmutation in a 22nd century French nuclear fleet, using sodium fast breeder reactors. We benchmark the americium transmutation benefits and drawbacks with a reference case consisting of a hypothetical 60 GWe fleet of pure plutonium breeders. The fluxes in the various parts of the cycle (reactors, fabrication plants, reprocessing plants and underground disposals) are calculated using EDF's suite of codes, comparable in capabilities to those of other research facilities. We study underground thermal heat load reduction due to americium partitioning and repository area minimization. We endeavor to estimate the increased technical complexity of surface facilities to handle the americium fluxes in special fuel fabrication plants, americium fast burners, special reprocessing shops, handling equipments and transport casks between those facilities.

  1. The ShakeOut Scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jones, Lucile M.; Bernknopf, Richard; Cox, Dale; Goltz, James; Hudnut, Kenneth; Mileti, Dennis; Perry, Suzanne; Ponti, Daniel; Porter, Keith; Reichle, Michael; Seligson, Hope; Shoaf, Kimberley; Treiman, Jerry; Wein, Anne

    2008-01-01

    This is the initial publication of the results of a cooperative project to examine the implications of a major earthquake in southern California. The study comprised eight counties: Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura. Its results will be used as the basis of an emergency response and preparedness exercise, the Great Southern California ShakeOut, and for this purpose we defined our earthquake as occurring at 10:00 a.m. on November 13, 2008. As members of the southern California community use the ShakeOut Scenario to plan and execute the exercise, we anticipate discussion and feedback. This community input will be used to refine our assessment and will lead to a formal publication in early 2009. Our goal in the ShakeOut Scenario is to identify the physical, social and economic consequences of a major earthquake in southern California and in so doing, enable the users of our results to identify what they can change now?before the earthquake?to avoid catastrophic impact after the inevitable earthquake occurs. To do so, we had to determine the physical damages (casualties and losses) caused by the earthquake and the impact of those damages on the region?s social and economic systems. To do this, we needed to know about the earthquake ground shaking and fault rupture. So we first constructed an earthquake, taking all available earthquake research information, from trenching and exposed evidence of prehistoric earthquakes, to analysis of instrumental recordings of large earthquakes and the latest theory in earthquake source physics. We modeled a magnitude (M) 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault, a plausible event on the fault most likely to produce a major earthquake. This information was then fed forward into the rest of the ShakeOut Scenario. The damage impacts of the scenario earthquake were estimated using both HAZUS-MH and expert opinion through 13 special studies and 6 expert panels, and fall into four

  2. Scenario Planning in Higher Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rieley, James

    Scenario planning can help institutions change the mental models used in planning to achieve a focus on the long-term future, rather than on the immediate future. While institutional survival depends upon the ability to detect and adapt to critical changes in the environment, all institutions face a wide range of potential future scenarios. By…

  3. Platform Support for Pedagogical Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peter, Yvan; Vantroys, Thomas

    2005-01-01

    This article deals with providing support for the execution of pedagogical scenarios in Learning Management Systems. It takes an engineering point of view to identifies actors, design and use processes. Next it defines the necessary capabilities of a platform so that actors can manage or use pedagogical scenarios. The second part of the article is…

  4. Futures Scenario in Science Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lloyd, David; Vanderhout, Annastasia; Lloyd, Lisa; Atkins, David

    2010-01-01

    In this article we describe our experiences in developing futures scenarios in two science contexts, space science and atmospheric science/climate change. Futures scenario writing can develop scientific literacy by connecting science learning to students' lifeworlds--past, present and future. They also provide a synthesising mechanism for…

  5. Student Rights and Responsibilities Scenarios.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peterson, Ludwig A.; And Others

    To stimulate interest in student's rights and responsibilities, this resource contains incomplete scenarios dealing with the consequences of knowing and not knowing the law, as it is applied to modern practical situations. The scenarios can be used in high school courses such as government, social problems, history, psychology, and business law.…

  6. CYP21A2 p.E238 deletion as result of multiple microconversion events: a genetic study on an Italian congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH) family.

    PubMed

    Concolino, Paola; Mello, Enrica; Zuppi, Cecilia; Toscano, Vincenzo; Capoluongo, Ettore

    2013-03-01

    More than 90% of congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH) cases are associated with mutations in the 21-hydroxylase gene (CYP21A2) in the HLA class III area on the short arm of chromosome 6p21.3. The major part of disease-causing mutations in CYP21A2 alleles are CYP21A1P-derived sequence transferred to the active gene by macroconversion or microconversion events. Only around 5% of all disease-causing CYP21A2 alleles harbor rare mutations that do not originate from the pseudogene. A complete list of all reported CYP21A2 mutations can be found in the CYP21A2 database created by the Human Cytochrome P450 (CYP) Allele Nomenclature Committee (http://www.imm.Ki.se/CYPalleles/cyp21.htm). In this report, we describe clinical and genetic findings regarding an Italian woman suffering from a classic salt-wasting form of CAH due to a severe 21-hydroxylase deficiency. A complex genetic family study was performed including a prenatal diagnosis. The patient was found to be heterozygous for p.I172N (exon 4), p.E238del (exon 6), p.M239K (exon 6), and p.F306insT (exon 7) mutations and homozygous for p.I236N (exon 6) and p.V237E (exon 6) mutations. The deletion of glutamic acid 238 is a new mutation not reported before in the literature. CYP21A2 genotyping has become a valuable complement to biochemical CAH investigation. We highlight the contribution of molecular genetic advancements to the clinical management of patients with 21-hydroxylase deficiency. PMID:23370425

  7. A Ta-rich low-P peraluminous granite: the Rechla cupola (Hoggar, Algeria) and associated pegmatites, the result of extreme fractionation of a A2-type magma.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kesraoui, M.; Marignac, C.; Hamis, A.; Cuney, M.

    2012-04-01

    pronounced <0 Eu anomaly. Geochemical modelling shows that the main Rechla magma is likely the fractionated product of this already differentiated magma, mainly involving quartz and Kfs. The pegmatite rim is interpreted as the result of the sequential crystallization of a Rechla-type melt, with late individualisation of a Fe-rich magmatic-hydrothermal phase responsible for the quartz-zinnwaldite assemblage, leaving a strongly Be-enriched residual liquid (the fine-grained granite). As demonstrated by the Rechla occurrence, Ta concentration at levels similar to those in Beauvoir-type high-P peraluminous granites may be reached in the low-P low-Ta A2 suites, provided that extreme fractionation processes are established. Azzouni-Sekkal, A., Boissonnas, J. (1993). Une province magmatique de transition du calco-alcalin à l'alcalin : les granitoïdes pan-africains à structure annulaire de la chaîne pharusienne du Hoggar (Algérie). Bulletin Société Géologique France 164, 597-608. Linnen, R.L., Cuney, M. (2005). Granite-related rare-element deposits and experimental constraints on Ta-Nb-W-Sn-Zr-Hf mineralization. In: RL Linnen, IM Samson (eds), Rare-element geochemistry and mineral deposits, Geological Association of Canada (GAC) Short Course Notes 17, pp. 45-67.

  8. Creating a Scenario Suitable for Multiple Caregivers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Doerr, Harold; Bacal, Kira; Hurst, Victor

    2004-01-01

    The HPS can be utilized for the training of a wide variety of caregivers, ranging from physicians to laypeople. Methods: A single scenario was developed and adapted for a number of clinical scenarios and operational environments, ranging from in-flight to the immediate postflight timeline. In this way, different caregivers, from astronauts to search and rescue forces to specialty-boarded physicians, could make use of a single clinical situation. Five crew medical officer analogs and sixty anesthesia residents, serving as flight surgeon analogs, and, were briefed on space medicine and physiology, then were exposed to the scenario and asked to manage the patient as if they were part of the in-flight or recovery team. Results: Basic themes, such as crisis resource management, were standard across the student audiences. Discussion: A single clinical script can easily be adapted for multiple uses.

  9. Generating Scenarios When Data Are Missing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mackey, Ryan

    2007-01-01

    The Hypothetical Scenario Generator (HSG) is being developed in conjunction with other components of artificial-intelligence systems for automated diagnosis and prognosis of faults in spacecraft, aircraft, and other complex engineering systems. The HSG accepts, as input, possibly incomplete data on the current state of a system (see figure). The HSG models a potential fault scenario as an ordered disjunctive tree of conjunctive consequences, wherein the ordering is based upon the likelihood that a particular conjunctive path will be taken for the given set of inputs. The computation of likelihood is based partly on a numerical ranking of the degree of completeness of data with respect to satisfaction of the antecedent conditions of prognostic rules. The results from the HSG are then used by a model-based artificial- intelligence subsystem to predict realistic scenarios and states.

  10. Coffee and tea consumption, genotype-based CYP1A2 and NAT2 activity and colorectal cancer risk-results from the EPIC cohort study.

    PubMed

    Dik, Vincent K; Bueno-de-Mesquita, H B As; Van Oijen, Martijn G H; Siersema, Peter D; Uiterwaal, Cuno S P M; Van Gils, Carla H; Van Duijnhoven, Fränzel J B; Cauchi, Stéphane; Yengo, Loic; Froguel, Philippe; Overvad, Kim; Bech, Bodil H; Tjønneland, Anne; Olsen, Anja; Boutron-Ruault, Marie-Christine; Racine, Antoine; Fagherazzi, Guy; Kühn, Tilman; Campa, Daniele; Boeing, Heiner; Aleksandrova, Krasimira; Trichopoulou, Antonia; Peppa, Eleni; Oikonomou, Eleni; Palli, Domenico; Grioni, Sara; Vineis, Paolo; Tumino, Rosaria; Panico, Salvatore; Peeters, Petra H M; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Engeset, Dagrun; Braaten, Tonje; Dorronsoro, Miren; Chirlaque, María-Dolores; Sánchez, María-José; Barricarte, Aurelio; Zamora-Ros, Raul; Argüelles, Marcial; Jirström, Karin; Wallström, Peter; Nilsson, Lena M; Ljuslinder, Ingrid; Travis, Ruth C; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Wareham, Nick; Freisling, Heinz; Licaj, Idlir; Jenab, Mazda; Gunter, Marc J; Murphy, Neil; Romaguera-Bosch, Dora; Riboli, Elio

    2014-07-15

    Coffee and tea contain numerous antimutagenic and antioxidant components and high levels of caffeine that may protect against colorectal cancer (CRC). We investigated the association between coffee and tea consumption and CRC risk and studied potential effect modification by CYP1A2 and NAT2 genotypes, enzymes involved in the metabolization of caffeine. Data from 477,071 participants (70.2% female) of the European Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort study were analyzed. At baseline (1992-2000) habitual (total, caffeinated and decaffeinated) coffee and tea consumption was assessed with dietary questionnaires. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratio's (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Potential effect modification by genotype-based CYP1A2 and NAT2 activity was studied in a nested case-control set of 1,252 cases and 2,175 controls. After a median follow-up of 11.6 years, 4,234 participants developed CRC (mean age 64.7 ± 8.3 years). Total coffee consumption (high vs. non/low) was not associated with CRC risk (HR 1.06, 95% CI 0.95-1.18) or subsite cancers, and no significant associations were found for caffeinated (HR 1.10, 95% CI 0.97-1.26) and decaffeinated coffee (HR 0.96, 95% CI 0.84-1.11) and tea (HR 0.97, 95% CI 0.86-1.09). High coffee and tea consuming subjects with slow CYP1A2 or NAT2 activity had a similar CRC risk compared to non/low coffee and tea consuming subjects with a fast CYP1A2 or NAT2 activity, which suggests that caffeine metabolism does not affect the link between coffee and tea consumption and CRC risk. This study shows that coffee and tea consumption is not likely to be associated with overall CRC. PMID:24318358

  11. Alternative scenarios utilizing nonterrestrial resources

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eldred, Charles H.; Roberts, Barney B.

    1992-01-01

    A collection of alternative scenarios that are enabled or substantially enhanced by the utilization of nonterrestrial resources is provided. We take a generalized approach to scenario building so that our report will have value in the context of whatever goals are eventually chosen. Some of the topics covered include the following: lunar materials processing; asteroid mining; lunar resources; construction of a large solar power station; solar dynamic power for the space station; reduced gravity; mission characteristics and options; and tourism.

  12. Security message exchange interoperability scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Tarman, Thomas

    1998-07-01

    This contribution describes three interoperability scenarios for the ATM Security Message Exchange (SME) protocol. These scenarios include network-wide signaling support for the Security Services Information Element, partial signaling support wherethe SSIE is only supported in private or workgroup ATM networks, and the case where the SSIE is nonsupported by any network elements (exceptthosethat implement security services). Explanatory text is proposed for inclusion infection 2.3 of the ATM Security Specification, Version 1.0.

  13. Medical Scenarios Relevant to Spaceflight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bacal, Kira; Hurs, Victor; Doerr, Harold

    2004-01-01

    The Medical Operational Support Team (MOST) was tasked by the JSC Space Medicine and Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) to incorporate medical simulation into 1) medical training for astronaut-crew medical officers (CMO) and medical flight control teams and 2) evaluations of procedures and resources required for medical care aboard the International Space Station (ISS). Development of evidence-based medical scenarios that mimic the physiology observed during spaceflight will be needed for the MOST to complete these two tasks. The MOST used a human patient simulator, the ISS-like resources in the Medical Simulation Laboratory (MSL), and evidence from space operations, military operations and medical literature to develop space relevant medical scenarios. These scenarios include conditions concerning airway management, Advanced Cardiac Life Support (ACLS) and mitigating anaphylactic symptoms. The MOST has used these space relevant medical scenarios to develop a preliminary space medical training regimen for NASA flight surgeons, Biomedical Flight Controllers (Biomedical Engineers; BME) and CMO-analogs. This regimen is conducted by the MOST in the MSL. The MOST has the capability to develop evidence-based space-relevant medical scenarios that can help SLSD I) demonstrate the proficiency of medical flight control teams to mitigate space-relevant medical events and 2) validate nextgeneration medical equipment and procedures for space medicine applications.

  14. Iterative Mechanism Solutions with Scenario and ADAMS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rhoades, Daren

    2006-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the use of iterative solutions using Scenario for Motion (UG NX 2 Motion) to assist in designing the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL). The MSL will have very unique design requirements, and in order to meet these requirements the system must have the ability to design for static stability, simulate mechanism kinematics, simulate dynamic behaviour and be capable of reconfiguration, and iterations as designed. The legacy process used on the Mars Exploration rovers worked, but it was cumbersome using multiple tools, limited configuration control, with manual process and communication, and multiple steps. The aim is to develop a mechanism that would reduce turn around time, and make more reiterations possible, to improve the quality and quantity of data, and to enhance configuration control. Currently for NX Scenario for Motion uses are in the articulation studies, the simulations of traverse motions,and subsystem simulations. The design of the Rover landing model requires accurate results, flexible elements, such as beams, and the use of the full ADAMS solver has been used. In order to achieve this, when required, there has been a direct translation from Scenario to ADAMS, with additional data in ascii format. The process that has been designed to move from Scenario to ADAMS is reviewed.

  15. Scenarios Based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Assumptions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Edmonds, J.

    2013-12-01

    A set of new scenarios is being developed by the international scientific community as part of a larger program that was articulated in Moss, et al. (2009), published in Nature. A long series of meetings including climate researchers drawn from the climate modeling, impacts, adaptation and vulnerability (IAV) and integrated assessment modeling (IAM) communities have led to the development of a set of five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which define the state of human and natural societies at a macro scale over the course of the 21st century without regard to climate mitigation or change. SSPs were designed to explore a range of possible futures consistent with greater or lesser challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation. They include a narrative storyline and a set of quantified measures--e.g. demographic and economic profiles--that define the high-level state of society as it evolves over the 21st century under the assumption of no significant climate feedback. SSPs can be used to develop quantitative scenarios of human Earth systems using IAMs. IAMs produce information about greenhouse gas emissions, energy systems, the economy, agriculture and land use. Each set of SSPs will have a different human Earth system realization for each IAM. Five groups from the IAM community have begun to explore the implications of SSP assumptions for emissions, energy, economy, agriculture and land use. We report the quantitative results of initial experiments from those groups. A major goal of the Moss, et al. strategy was to enable the use of CMIP5 climate model ensemble products for IAV research. CMIP5 climate scenarios used four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, defined in terms of radiative forcing in the year 2100: 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 Wm-2. There is no reason to believe that the SSPs will generate year 2100 levels of radiative forcing that correspond to the four RCP levels, though it is important that at least one SSP produce a

  16. Alternative Geothermal Power Production Scenarios

    DOE Data Explorer

    Sullivan, John

    2014-03-14

    The information given in this file pertains to Argonne LCAs of the plant cycle stage for a set of ten new geothermal scenario pairs, each comprised of a reference and improved case. These analyses were conducted to compare environmental performances among the scenarios and cases. The types of plants evaluated are hydrothermal binary and flash and Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) binary and flash plants. Each scenario pair was developed by the LCOE group using GETEM as a way to identify plant operational and resource combinations that could reduce geothermal power plant LCOE values. Based on the specified plant and well field characteristics (plant type, capacity, capacity factor and lifetime, and well numbers and depths) for each case of each pair, Argonne generated a corresponding set of material to power ratios (MPRs) and greenhouse gas and fossil energy ratios.

  17. The incidence and risk factors for shipping fever in horses transported by air to Hong Kong: Results from a 2-year prospective study.

    PubMed

    Hurley, M J; Riggs, C M; Cogger, N; Rosanowski, S M

    2016-08-01

    A 2 year prospective study was performed between February 2011 and January 2013 to determine the incidence and risk factors for shipping fever (SF) in horses transported by air to Hong Kong (HK). Using a questionnaire, data were collected from professional flying grooms regarding the journey to HK and horses in the shipment. Horses were monitored in quarantine for 2 weeks after arrival in HK, and clinical signs of SF recorded. Poisson and logistic regression models were used to identify risk factors for SF at the horse and shipment levels. The study analysed data from 869 horses on 81 flights arriving from Australia (n = 24), New Zealand (NZ; n = 18), the United Kingdom (UK; n = 33) and the United States of America (USA; n = 6). The incidence risk of SF was 10.8 per 100 horses and the proportion of shipments with at least one horse that developed SF was 49/81 (60%). The study identified that the rate per shipment of SF in shipments of horses originating from NZ, the USA and the UK was 2.40 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.22-4.71), 2.43 (95% CI 0.66-8.89) and 3.08 (95% CI 1.60-5.93) times the rate of SF compared to Australia. Shipments arriving in HK during March and May were 5.61 (95% CI 1.55-20.31) and 4.51 (95% CI 1.43-14.26) times more likely to contain horses that developed SF compared to shipments arriving in January. The identification of these risk factors and the recognition of at-risk shipments will help focus attention on preventative strategies. PMID:27387724

  18. 2015 Standard Scenarios Annual Report: U.S. Electric Sector Scenario Exploration

    SciTech Connect

    Sullivan, Patrick; Cole, Wesley; Blair, Nate; Lantz, Eric; Krishnan, Venkat; Mai, Trieu; Mulcahy, David; Porro, Gian

    2015-07-16

    This report is one of several products resulting from an initial effort to provide a consistent set of technology cost and performance data and to define a conceptual and consistent scenario framework that can be used in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) future analyses. The long-term objective of this effort is to identify a range of possible futures of the U.S. electricity sector in which to consider specific energy system issues through (1) defining a set of prospective scenarios that bound ranges of key technology, market, and policy assumptions and (2) assessing these scenarios in NREL’s market models to understand the range of resulting outcomes, including energy technology deployment and production, energy prices, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

  19. Integrated Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A). Engineering Test Report: Radiated Emissions and SARR, SARP, DCS Receivers, Link Frequencies EMI Sensitive Band Test Results, AMSU-A2, S/N 108, 08

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Valdez, A.

    2000-01-01

    This is the Engineering Test Report, Radiated Emissions and SARR, SARP, DCS Receivers, Link Frequencies EMI Sensitive Band Test Results, AMSU-A2, S/N 108, for the Integrated Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A).

  20. Shipping container response to three severe railway accident scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Mok, G.C.; Fischer, L.E.; Murty, S.S.; Witte, M.C.

    1998-04-01

    The probability of damage and the potential resulting hazards are analyzed for a representative rail shipping container for three severe rail accident scenarios. The scenarios are: (1) the rupture of closure bolts and resulting opening of closure lid due to a severe impact, (2) the puncture of container by an impacting rail-car coupler, and (3) the yielding of container due to side impact on a rigid uneven surface. The analysis results indicate that scenario 2 is a physically unreasonable event while the probabilities of a significant loss of containment in scenarios 1 and 3 are extremely small. Before assessing the potential risk for the last two scenarios, the uncertainties in predicting complex phenomena for rare, high- consequence hazards needs to be addressed using a rigorous methodology.

  1. The USGS Earthquake Scenario Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wald, D. J.; Petersen, M. D.; Wald, L. A.; Frankel, A. D.; Quitoriano, V. R.; Lin, K.; Luco, N.; Mathias, S.; Bausch, D.

    2009-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (EHP) is producing a comprehensive suite of earthquake scenarios for planning, mitigation, loss estimation, and scientific investigations. The Earthquake Scenario Project (ESP), though lacking clairvoyance, is a forward-looking project, estimating earthquake hazard and loss outcomes as they may occur one day. For each scenario event, fundamental input includes i) the magnitude and specified fault mechanism and dimensions, ii) regional Vs30 shear velocity values for site amplification, and iii) event metadata. A grid of standard ShakeMap ground motion parameters (PGA, PGV, and three spectral response periods) is then produced using the well-defined, regionally-specific approach developed by the USGS National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project (NHSMP), including recent advances in empirical ground motion predictions (e.g., the NGA relations). The framework also allows for numerical (3D) ground motion computations for specific, detailed scenario analyses. Unlike NSHMP ground motions, for ESP scenarios, local rock and soil site conditions and commensurate shaking amplifications are applied based on detailed Vs30 maps where available or based on topographic slope as a proxy. The scenario event set is comprised primarily by selection from the NSHMP events, though custom events are also allowed based on coordination of the ESP team with regional coordinators, seismic hazard experts, seismic network operators, and response coordinators. The event set will be harmonized with existing and future scenario earthquake events produced regionally or by other researchers. The event list includes approximate 200 earthquakes in CA, 100 in NV, dozens in each of NM, UT, WY, and a smaller number in other regions. Systematic output will include all standard ShakeMap products, including HAZUS input, GIS, KML, and XML files used for visualization, loss estimation, ShakeCast, PAGER, and for other systems. All products will be

  2. Daily relative humidity projections in an Indian river basin for IPCC SRES scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anandhi, Aavudai; Srinivas, V. V.; Kumar, D. Nagesh; Nanjundiah, Ravi S.

    2012-04-01

    A two-stage methodology is developed to obtain future projections of daily relative humidity in a river basin for climate change scenarios. In the first stage, Support Vector Machine (SVM) models are developed to downscale nine sets of predictor variables (large-scale atmospheric variables) for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (A1B, A2, B1, and COMMIT) to R H in a river basin at monthly scale. Uncertainty in the future projections of R H is studied for combinations of SRES scenarios, and predictors selected. Subsequently, in the second stage, the monthly sequences of R H are disaggregated to daily scale using k-nearest neighbor method. The effectiveness of the developed methodology is demonstrated through application to the catchment of Malaprabha reservoir in India. For downscaling, the probable predictor variables are extracted from the (1) National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalysis data set for the period 1978-2000 and (2) simulations of the third-generation Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model for the period 1978-2100. The performance of the downscaling and disaggregation models is evaluated by split sample validation. Results show that among the SVM models, the model developed using predictors pertaining to only land location performed better. The R H is projected to increase in the future for A1B and A2 scenarios, while no trend is discerned for B1 and COMMIT.

  3. Ultra-Perfect Sorting Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ouangraoua, Aïda; Bergeron, Anne; Swenson, Krister M.

    Perfection has been used as a criteria to select rearrangement scenarios since 2004. However, there is a fundamental bias towards extant species in the original definition: ancestral species are not bound to perfection. Here we develop a new theory of perfection that takes an egalitarian view of species, and apply it to the complex evolution of mammal chromosome X.

  4. Future Scenarios and Environmental Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kopnina, Helen

    2014-01-01

    This article explores a number of questions about visions of the future and their implications for environmental education (EE). If the future were known, what kind of actions would be needed to maintain the positive aspects and reverse the negative ones? How could these actions be translated into the aims of EE? Three future scenarios are…

  5. Space resources. Volume 1: Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mckay, Mary Fae (Editor); Mckay, David S. (Editor); Duke, Michael B. (Editor)

    1992-01-01

    A number of possible future paths for space exploration and development are presented. The topics covered include the following: (1) the baseline program; (2) alternative scenarios utilizing nonterrestrial resources; (3) impacts of sociopolitical conditions; (4) common technologies; and issues for further study.

  6. Designing Scenarios for Human Action.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carroll, John M.

    1994-01-01

    An approach to the design of computer systems and applications in which scenarios of human-system interaction are a central working design representation are described and illustrated by examples from the design of a multimedia information system. (Contains 21 references.) (KRN)

  7. Scenario Writing: A Therapeutic Application.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Haddock, Billy D.

    1989-01-01

    Introduces scenario writing as useful therapeutic technique. Presents case study of woman in midst of divorce and custody fight to illustrate context in which technique was applied. Suggests additional applications. Concludes that good response is more likely for clients who possess good writing skills although other clients may use their own…

  8. Results of a 2-year randomized, controlled obesity prevention trial: Effects on diet, activity and sleep behaviors in an at-risk young adult population.

    PubMed

    Laska, Melissa N; Lytle, Leslie A; Nanney, Marilyn S; Moe, Stacey G; Linde, Jennifer A; Hannan, Peter J

    2016-08-01

    Excess weight gain tends to occur in young adulthood. However, research examining effective weight-related interventions for this age group has been limited. As one of seven trials in the EARLY Trials consortium (Early Adult Reduction of weight through LifestYle intervention), the CHOICES Study (Choosing Healthy Options in College Environments and Settings) tested effects of a technology-integrated, young adult weight gain prevention intervention. It was a randomized controlled trial with assessments at baseline (2011) and 4-, 12- and 24-months post-intervention initiation and included 441 participants (ages 18-35) who were students at three Minnesota community colleges. The 24-month intervention included a 1-credit academic course and social networking and support online intervention. This analysis examined effects on 12 secondary behavioral outcomes across three domains: diet (fast food, sugary beverages, breakfast, at-home meal preparation), physical activity/screen time (minutes and energy expenditure in leisure time physical activity, television viewing, leisure time computer use) and sleep (hours of sleep, time required to fall asleep, days not getting enough rest, difficulty staying awake). The intervention resulted in significant reductions in fast food (p=0.007) but increases in difficulty staying awake (p=0.015). There was limited evidence of other behavior changes at 4months (0.05results (p=0.005). Additional research is needed to understand effective obesity prevention among young adults, particularly when addressing multiple weight-related outcomes. PMID:27283096

  9. Glacitectonic rafting and associated deformation of mid-Pleistocene glacigenic sediments, near Central Graben, central North Sea; results of a 2D High-Resolution Geophysical Survey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vaughan-Hirsch, David

    2013-04-01

    Glacitectonic rafts are defined as dislocated slabs of bedrock or unconsolidated sediments, transported from their original position by glacial action. These relatively thin, slab-like bodies feature transport distances ranging from tens of meters to hundreds of kilometers. They occur as either single rafts, or multiple stacked bodies associated with a variety of ice-pushed landforms. Internally, rafts frequently appear undeformed although at a larger scale, they may be folded or cut by shear zones and brittle faults. However, the processes leading to the detachment, transport and subsequent emplacement of the rafts remain uncertain. This work describes the results of a geophysical 2D seismic survey of thrust-bound glacitectonic rafts and associated deformation structures, occurring within mid-Pleistocene glacigenic sediments of the Central Graben, central North Sea. The total shortened length of the rafted section is 2.4km, comprising a series of nine discrete rafts which individually range from 235m to 1018m in length. The principle basal detachment occurs at the erosive contact between Aberdeen Ground Formation and overlying Ling Bank Formation. The ice-proximal (northern) limit of rafting is defined by the presence of a large-scale palaeo-channel oriented perpendicular to the direction of rafting, composed of sediments of the Ling Bank Formation and the Forth Formation. The observed deformation structures infer a mean tectonic direction of 178°, indicating that they are associated with an active glacial advance from the north. The resulting deformation creates a minimum lateral shortening throughout the observed sequence of 35%, typifying a strongly compressional regieme associated with rafting. Throughout the surveyed area, structurally younger rafts are found to be emplaced towards the south, compared to the structurally older rafts which are emplaced towards the south-east. This distinction is suggested to be caused by early rafts creating an obstacle to

  10. Summary of student scenarios: 2020 Vision project, fiscal year 1997

    SciTech Connect

    Gordon, K.W.; Munoz, A.; Scott, K.P.; Rinne, R.

    1997-11-01

    The Strategic Issues Thinking: 2020 Vision project introduces students and teaches to national security issues through the techniques of scenario building, and engages them in an interactive process of creating scenarios relevant to the Department of Energy, Defense Programs (DOE/DP). Starting with the world as it is today, teams of students develop a series of scenarios on international developments over the next 25 years under various circumstances. This report identifies recurrent themes in the student`s scenarios, lists creative ways the students presented their scenarios, compares and contrasts the program`s FY97 results with FY96 results, identifies the benefits of the program, and offers a glimpse of Sandia`s future plans for the 2020 Vision project.

  11. Working memory arrest in children with high-functioning autism compared to children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder: results from a 2-year longitudinal study.

    PubMed

    Andersen, Per N; Skogli, Erik W; Hovik, Kjell T; Geurts, Hilde; Egeland, Jens; Øie, Merete

    2015-05-01

    The aim of this study was to analyse the development of verbal working memory in children with high-functioning autism compared to children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder and typically developing children. A total of 34 children with high-functioning autism, 72 children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder and 45 typically developing children (age 9-16 years) were included at baseline and followed up approximately 25 months later. The children were given a letter/number sequencing task to assess verbal working memory. The performance of children with high-functioning autism on verbal working memory did not improve after 2 years, while improvement was observed in children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder and typically developing children. The results indicate a different developmental trajectory for verbal working memory in children with high-functioning autism compared to children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder and typically developing children. More research is needed to construct a developmental framework more suitable for children with autism spectrum disorder. PMID:24604922

  12. Comparison of Retrograde Balloon Dilatation and Laparoscopic Pyeloplasty for Treatment of Ureteropelvic Junction Obstruction: Results of a 2-Year Follow-Up

    PubMed Central

    Xue, Xue-Yi; Zheng, Qing-Shui; Wei, Yong; Jiang, Tao; Li, Xiao-Dong; Huang, Jin-Bei; Cai, Hai

    2016-01-01

    Objective To evaluate the efficacy of laparoscopic pyeloplasty relative to retrograde balloon dilatation for the treatment of ureteropelvic junction obstruction (UPJO). Methods This retrospective study enrolled UPJO patients with stricture length < 2 cm who had been treated with laparoscopic pyeloplasty (LP; 44 cases) or balloon dilatation (BD; 38 cases) from Jan 2010 to Jan 2012, according to patients’ preference after consultation. Demographics and clinical parameters were collected. Patients were followed-up at 3, 6, 12, and 24 months. Ultrasonography, intravenous urography, and diuretic renography were applied to evaluate the remission of hydronephrosis. Results Both groups were comparable with respect to age, UPJO location, gender, and other baseline parameters. Compared to the LP group, patients receiving BD experienced significantly shorter operative time, analgesia time, hospital stay, and urethral catheter indwelling time, and less cost (P<0.001). Three and 6 months after their respective procedures, the success rates of the LP (97.7%, both) and BD (94.7% and 86.8%) groups were similar, and at 12 and 24 months the long-term success rate of LP (95.5%, both) was better than that of BD (78.9% and 71.0%). Conclusions LP showed better long-term success rate than did BD in the management of UPJO with length of stricture < 2 cm. Considering that BD is more minimally invasive, simpler and easier to perform, and costs less, we recommend it for some selective UPJO patients as the first-line therapy. PMID:27019289

  13. Prospective Analysis of a New Bone Graft in Lumbar Interbody Fusion: Results of a 2- Year Prospective Clinical and Radiological Study

    PubMed Central

    Raskin, Yannic

    2015-01-01

    Background This study examined the efficacy and safety of bone graft material ABM/P-15 (iFACTOR) for use in posterior lumbar interbody fusion. ABM/P-15 has been used safely for more than a decade in dental applications. Methods Forty patients underwent PLIF surgery, with each patient as control. Assessments up to 24 months included radiographs, CT scan, VAS, and ODI. Primary success criteria were fusion and safety. Results Intra-cage bridging bone occurred earlier with ABM/P-15 than autograft (97.73% vs. 59.09% at 6 months). On average pain decreased 29 points and function improved 43 points. Radio dense material outside the disk space occurred more frequently with ABM/P-15 than autograft, without clinical consequence. Conclusions This study suggests that ABM/P-15 has equal or greater efficacy at 6 and 12 months. Pain improvements exceeded success criteria at all time points. Functional improvement exceeded success criteria at all time points. Clinical Relevance This study explores the safety and efficacy of an osteobiologic peptide enhanced bone graft material as a viable alternative to autograft and its attendant risks. PMID:25709887

  14. A 2D model of axial symmetry for proximal tubule of an average human nephron: indicative results of diffusion, convection and absorption processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Insfrán, J. F.; Ubal, S.; Di Paolo, y. J.

    2016-04-01

    A simplified model of a proximal convoluted tubule of an average human nephron is presented. The model considers the 2D axisymmetric flow of the luminal solution exchanging matter with the tubule walls and the peritubular fluid by means of 0D models for the epithelial cells. The tubule radius is considered to vary along the conduit due to the trans-epithelial pressure difference. The fate of more than ten typical solutes is tracked down by the model. The Navier-Stokes and Reaction-Diffusion-Advection equations (considering the electro-neutrality principle) are solved in the lumen, giving a detailed picture of the velocity, pressure and concentration fields, along with trans-membrane fluxes and tubule deformation, via coupling with the 0D model for the tubule wall. The calculations are carried out numerically by means of the finite element method. The results obtained show good agreement with those published by other authors using models that ignore the diffusive transport and disregard a detailed calculation of velocity, pressure and concentrations. This work should be seen as a first approach towards the development of a more comprehensive model of the filtration process taking place in the kidneys, which ultimately helps in devising a device that can mimic/complement the renal function.

  15. Exploring NASA Human Spaceflight and Pioneering Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zapata, Edgar; Wilhite, Alan

    2015-01-01

    The life cycle cost analysis of space exploration scenarios is explored via a merger of (1) scenario planning, separating context and (2) modeling and analysis of specific content. Numerous scenarios are presented, leading to cross-cutting recommendations addressing life cycle costs, productivity, and approaches applicable to any scenarios. Approaches address technical and non-technical factors.

  16. Scenario Crisis Cases in Distance Learning Sessions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Antunes, A.

    2013-04-01

    We discuss early results using student-lead role-play of crises and disaster scenarios to encourage engagement in distance learning sessions. The disadvantage of distance learning via web interface—the lack of face-to-face and the ease with which a student can remain quiet—is balanced by the wealth of Internet-accessible media reports of past mission disasters. Capitol College minimizes the lecture component to simply frame each session's open-ended crisis in our Mission Operations engineering course. The students are presented with a historical ‘disaster’ but not its resolution; they present their course of action, then the lecturer steps in to debrief. With a wealth of past cases available on the web, use of scenarios rather than lectures shows early signs of being viable model for encouraging discussion and interaction within distance learning for a variety of course topics.

  17. Thermodynamical interpretation of gravity in braneworld scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Sheykhi, Ahmad

    2009-05-15

    We study the thermodynamical properties of the apparent horizon in the various braneworld scenarios. First, we show that the Friedmann equations can be written directly in the form of the first law of thermodynamics, dE = T{sub h}dS{sub h}+WdV, at apparent horizon on the brane, regardless of whether there is the intrinsic curvature term on the brane or a Gauss-Bonnet term in the bulk. This procedure leads to extract an entropy expression in terms of horizon geometry associated with the apparent horizon. Then, we examine the time evolution of the total entropy, including the derived entropy of the apparent horizon and the entropy of the matter fields inside the apparent horizon. We find that the derived entropy of the apparent horizon on the brane satisfies the generalized second law of thermodynamics in braneworld scenarios. These results further support the idea that gravitation on a macroscopic scale is a manifestation of thermodynamics.

  18. Rolling in the modulated reheating scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Kobayashi, Naoya; Kobayashi, Takeshi; Erickcek, Adrienne L. E-mail: takeshi@cita.utoronto.ca

    2014-01-01

    In the modulated reheating scenario, the field that drives inflation has a spatially varying decay rate, and the resulting inhomogeneous reheating process generates adiabatic perturbations. We examine the statistical properties of the density perturbations generated in this scenario. Unlike earlier analyses, we include the dynamics of the field that determines the inflaton decay rate. We show that the dynamics of this modulus field can significantly alter the amplitude of the power spectrum and the bispectrum, even if the modulus field has a simple potential and its effective mass is smaller than the Hubble rate. In some cases, the evolution of the modulus amplifies the non-Gaussianity of the perturbations to levels that are excluded by recent observations of the cosmic microwave background. Therefore, a proper treatment of the modulus dynamics is required to accurately calculate the statistical properties of the perturbations generated by modulated reheating.

  19. Clinical Scenarios for Discordant Anti-Xa.

    PubMed

    Vera-Aguilera, Jesus; Yousef, Hindi; Beltran-Melgarejo, Diego; Teng, Teng Hugh; Jan, Ramos; Mok, Mary; Vera-Aguilera, Carlos; Moreno-Aguilera, Eduardo

    2016-01-01

    Anti-Xa test measures the activity of heparin against the activity of activated coagulation factor X; significant variability of anti-Xa levels in common clinical scenarios has been observed. Objective. To review the most common clinical settings in which anti-Xa results can be bias. Evidence Review. Guidelines and current literature search: we used PubMed, Medline, Embase, and MEDION, from 2000 to October 2013. Results. Anti-Xa test is widely used; however the assay underestimates heparin concentration in the presence of significant AT deficiency, pregnancy, end stage renal disease, and postthrombolysis and in patients with hyperbilirubinemia; limited published data evaluating the safety and effectiveness of anti-Xa assays for managing UH therapy is available. Conclusions and Relevance. To our knowledge this is the first paper that summarizes the most common causes in which this assay can be affected, several "day to day" clinical scenarios can modify the outcomes, and we concur that these rarely recognized scenarios can be affected by negative outcomes in the daily practice. PMID:27293440

  20. Clinical Scenarios for Discordant Anti-Xa

    PubMed Central

    Vera-Aguilera, Jesus; Yousef, Hindi; Beltran-Melgarejo, Diego; Teng, Teng Hugh; Jan, Ramos; Mok, Mary; Vera-Aguilera, Carlos; Moreno-Aguilera, Eduardo

    2016-01-01

    Anti-Xa test measures the activity of heparin against the activity of activated coagulation factor X; significant variability of anti-Xa levels in common clinical scenarios has been observed. Objective. To review the most common clinical settings in which anti-Xa results can be bias. Evidence Review. Guidelines and current literature search: we used PubMed, Medline, Embase, and MEDION, from 2000 to October 2013. Results. Anti-Xa test is widely used; however the assay underestimates heparin concentration in the presence of significant AT deficiency, pregnancy, end stage renal disease, and postthrombolysis and in patients with hyperbilirubinemia; limited published data evaluating the safety and effectiveness of anti-Xa assays for managing UH therapy is available. Conclusions and Relevance. To our knowledge this is the first paper that summarizes the most common causes in which this assay can be affected, several “day to day” clinical scenarios can modify the outcomes, and we concur that these rarely recognized scenarios can be affected by negative outcomes in the daily practice. PMID:27293440

  1. A Native American exposure scenario.

    PubMed

    Harris, S G; Harper, B L

    1997-12-01

    EPA's Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund (RAGS) and later documents provide guidance for estimating exposures received from suburban and agricultural activity patterns and lifestyles. However, these methods are not suitable for typical tribal communities whose members pursue, at least in part, traditional lifestyles. These lifestyles are derived from a long association with all of the resources in a particular region. We interviewed 35 members of a Columbia River Basin tribe to develop a lifestyle-based subsistence exposure scenario that represents a midrange exposure that a traditional tribal member would receive. This scenario provides a way to partially satisfy Executive Order 12,898 on environmental justice, which requires a specific evaluation of impacts from federal actions to peoples with subsistence diets. Because a subsistence diet is only a portion of what is important to a traditional lifestyle, we also used information obtained from the interviews to identify parameters for evaluating impacts to environmental and sociocultural quality of life. PMID:9463932

  2. Uncertainty in Integrated Assessment Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Mort Webster

    2005-10-17

    trends from a model for uncertainty projections. The probability distributions of these critical model drivers, and the resulting uncertainty in projections from a range of models, can provide the basis of future emission scenario set designs.

  3. Predictive RANS simulations via Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging

    SciTech Connect

    Edeling, W.N.; Cinnella, P.; Dwight, R.P.

    2014-10-15

    The turbulence closure model is the dominant source of error in most Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes simulations, yet no reliable estimators for this error component currently exist. Here we develop a stochastic, a posteriori error estimate, calibrated to specific classes of flow. It is based on variability in model closure coefficients across multiple flow scenarios, for multiple closure models. The variability is estimated using Bayesian calibration against experimental data for each scenario, and Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging (BMSA) is used to collate the resulting posteriors, to obtain a stochastic estimate of a Quantity of Interest (QoI) in an unmeasured (prediction) scenario. The scenario probabilities in BMSA are chosen using a sensor which automatically weights those scenarios in the calibration set which are similar to the prediction scenario. The methodology is applied to the class of turbulent boundary-layers subject to various pressure gradients. For all considered prediction scenarios the standard-deviation of the stochastic estimate is consistent with the measurement ground truth. Furthermore, the mean of the estimate is more consistently accurate than the individual model predictions.

  4. Misrepresentation of the IPCC CO2 emission scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Manning, Martin; Edmonds, James A.; Emori, S.; Grubler, Arnulf; Hibbard, Kathleen A.; Joos, Fortunat; Kainuma, M.; Keeling, Ralph; Kram, Tom; Manning, Andrew; Meinhausen, Malte; Moss, Richard H.; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Riahi, Keywan; Rose, Steven K.; Smith, Steven J.; Swart, Robert; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2010-06-01

    Estimates of recent fossil fuel CO2 emissions have been compared with the IPCC SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission scenarios that had been developed for analysis of future climate change, impacts and mitigation. In some cases this comparison uses averages across subgroups of SRES scenarios and for one category of greenhouse gases (industrial sources of CO2). That approach can be misleading and cause confusion as it is inconsistent with many of the papers on future climate change projections that are based on a specific subset of closely scrutinized SRES scenarios, known as illustrative marker scenarios. Here, we show that comparison between recent estimates of fossil fuel emissions trends and the SRES illustrative marker scenarios leads to the conclusion that recent trends are not outside the SRES range. Furthermore, the recent economic downturn appears to have brought actual emission back toward the middle of the SRES illustrative marker scenarios. We also note that SRES emission scenarios are designed to reflect potential alternative long-term trends in a world without climate policy intervention and the trend in the resulting climate change is not sensitive to short-term fluctuations.

  5. Designing Asteroid Impact Scenario Trajectories

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chodas, Paul

    2016-05-01

    In order to study some of the technical and geopolitical issues of dealing with an asteroid on impact trajectory, a number of hypothetical impact scenarios have been presented over the last ten years or so. These have been used, for example, at several of the Planetary Defense Conferences (PDCs), as well as in tabletop exercises with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), along with other government agencies. The exercise at the 2015 PDC involved most of the attendees, consisted of seven distinct steps (“injects”), and with all the presentations and discussions, took up nearly 10 hours of conference time. The trajectory for the PDC15 scenario was entirely realistic, and was posted ahead of the meeting. It was made available in the NEO Program’s Horizons ephemeris service so that users could , for example, design their own deflection missions. The simulated asteroid and trajectory had to meet numerous very exacting requirements: becoming observable on the very first day of the conference, yet remaining very difficult to observe for the following 7 years, and far enough away from Earth that it was out of reach of radar until just before impact. It had to be undetectable in the past, and yet provide multiple perihelion opportunities for deflection in the future. It had to impact in a very specific region of the Earth, a specific number of years after discovery. When observations of the asteroid are simulated to generate an uncertainty region, that entire region must impact the Earth along an axis that cuts across specific regions of the Earth, the “risk corridor”. This is important because asteroid deflections generally move an asteroid impact point along this corridor. One scenario had a requirement that the asteroid pass through a keyhole several years before impact. The PDC15 scenario had an additional constraint that multiple simulated kinetic impactor missions altered the trajectory at a deflection point midway between discovery and impact

  6. Impact assessment of combined climate and management scenarios on groundwater resources and associated wetland (Majorca, Spain)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Candela, Lucila; von Igel, Wolf; Javier Elorza, F.; Aronica, Giuseppe

    2009-10-01

    SummaryClimate change impact on a groundwater dependent wetland and natural recharge has been investigated in the Inca-Sa Pobla coastal aquifer for the year 2025. Temperature and precipitation based on the downscaled output from a general circulation model (GCM) was coupled to a groundwater model to estimate the impacts of climate change and management practices on groundwater. Management practices were based on changes in the volume of water extracted for agricultural and domestic purposes. Climate change impacts on the hydrogeological system were based on downscaled HadCM3 outputs for future medium-high (A2) and medium-low (B2) greenhouse gas scenarios developed by the IPCC [IPCC, 2001. Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. In: Houghton, J.T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D.J., Noguer, M., Van Der Linden, P.J., Dai, X., Maskell, K., Johnson, C.A. (Eds.), Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 881 pp]. Assessment of the impacts on the water level of the wetland were carried out by estimating the flow rate of springs discharging from the aquifer obtained by changes of agricultural land use and water supply allocation and variation of recharge according climate scenarios. The greatest reduction in recharge was observed in scenario A2 (-21%), while recharge in scenario B2 remained relatively unchanged (-4%). However, as uncertainties arising from GCM outputs maybe greater than the differences simulated here results are only indicative of the system response. In order to preserve the spring discharge at its current level (17 Mm 3/yr), which successfully prevents the wetland from drying up, a decrease in groundwater extraction is needed. In addition, the reallocation of agricultural wells is recommended under both scenarios. Spring discharge was affected the most by agricultural wells located near the wetland, as indicated by

  7. Mars Scenario-Based Visioning: Logistical Optimization of Transportation Architectures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    1999-01-01

    The purpose of this conceptual design investigation is to examine transportation forecasts for future human Wu missions to Mars. - Scenario-Based Visioning is used to generate possible future demand projections. These scenarios are then coupled with availability, cost, and capacity parameters for indigenously designed Mars Transfer Vehicles (solar electric, nuclear thermal, and chemical propulsion types) and Earth-to-Orbit launch vehicles (current, future, and indigenous) to provide a cost-conscious dual-phase launch manifest to meet such future demand. A simulator named M-SAT (Mars Scenario Analysis Tool) is developed using this method. This simulation is used to examine three specific transportation scenarios to Mars: a limited "flaus and footprints" mission, a More ambitious scientific expedition similar to an expanded version of the Design Reference Mission from NASA, and a long-term colonization scenario. Initial results from the simulation indicate that chemical propulsion systems might be the architecture of choice for all three scenarios. With this mind, "what if' analyses were performed which indicated that if nuclear production costs were reduced by 30% for the colonization scenario, then the nuclear architecture would have a lower life cycle cost than the chemical. Results indicate that the most cost-effective solution to the Mars transportation problem is to plan for segmented development, this involves development of one vehicle at one opportunity and derivatives of that vehicle at subsequent opportunities.

  8. The Role of Perpetrator Motivation in Two Crime Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sizemore, O. J.

    2013-01-01

    Undergraduate volunteers (n = 134) were randomly assigned in a 2 x 2 design that manipulated type of crime (rape vs. robbery) and perpetrator motivation (anger vs. desire). After reading one of the crime scenarios, participants responded to a series of attitude items regarding responsibility for the crime, assigned blame to agents mentioned in the…

  9. Program Simulates Spacecraft Communication Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Land, Kenneth P.; Best, Robert E.; Steel, Douglas J.; Gadd, William C.

    1994-01-01

    Dynamic Environment Communications Alalysis Testbed (DECAT) computer program is modular simulation program. Computes effects of motion, antenna radiation patterns, noise, interference, and other phenomena. Flexibility enables users to analyze many communications scenarios quickly and easily, eliminating need for users to create specific computer programs. Users create simulations involving any number of vehicles, receivers, transmitters, and antennas via graphical user interface (GUI). DECAT GUI implemented by use of software tool called "Transportable Applications Environment Plus" (TAE Plus). Written in C language. Graphical user interface requires TAE Plus, Version 5.1 package available from COSMIC (GSC-13463).

  10. Climate Change Technology Scenarios: Energy, Emissions, and Economic Implications

    SciTech Connect

    Placet, Marylynn; Humphreys, Kenneth K.; Mahasenan, N Maha

    2004-08-15

    This report describes three advanced technology scenarios and various illustrative cases developed by staff of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for the U.S. Climate Change Technology Program. These scenarios and illustrative cases explore the energy, emissions and economic implications of using advanced energy technologies and other climate change related technologies to reduce future emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). The cases were modeled using the Mini Climate Assessment Model (MiniCAM) developed by PNNL. The report describes the scenarios, the specifications for the cases, and the results. The report also provides background information on current emissions of GHGs and issues associated with stabilizing GHG concentrations.

  11. Climate Change Scenarios in the Yucatan Peninsula to the year 2020

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Orellana, R.; Espadas, C.; Conde, C.; Gay, C.

    2010-03-01

    A topic that has not been sufficiently analyzed is that the global warming is already affecting, and that it will have worst consequences in those regions with transitional climates, which have more sensibility to changes. This is the case of the Yucatan Peninsula which is semi-arid in their northern portion, and toward the south is subhumid, with a tendency to be more rainy toward the south. To have an estimation of what could happen in the future, the Intergovernmental Panel of Climatic Change (IPCC) has promoted the use of General Circulation Models (GCM), as well as the construction of possible emission scenarios that integrate different global and regional socioeconomic and demographic conditions, which project then a possible increase of emissions of greenhouse gases. These conditions are recognized as the decisive forces that will determine the variations of temperature and of precipitation. These projections are useful for the analysis of climatic change, and in particular for the assessments of the possible impacts and of the initiatives of adaptation and of mitigation that should be implemented in every country or region. In Mexico, most of those evaluations of climate change have been carried out generally at country level. For that reason, it is necessary to direct the research at regional level. In this work, we evaluated the potential climatic changes on the Yucatan Peninsula, considering the different changes of temperature and precipitation as a consequence for different emission scenarios and for the horizon 2020. To project the environmental responses of the region, we used as a base scenario the available temperature and precipitation information of the period 1961-1990, registered in 85 meteorological stations of the peninsula. With these data, we generated climate change scenarios using the outputs of four General Circulation Models: HADLEY, ECHAM, GFDL and CGCM, and the emission scenarios A1FI, A2, B1 and B2. The outputs of these models were

  12. Blood loss estimation in epistaxis scenarios.

    PubMed

    Beer, H L; Duvvi, S; Webb, C J; Tandon, S

    2005-01-01

    Thirty-two members of staff from the Ear, Nose and Throat Department at Warrington General Hospital were asked to estimate blood loss in commonly encountered epistaxis scenarios. Results showed that once the measured volume was above 100 ml, visual estimation became grossly inaccurate. Comparison of medical and non-medical staff showed under-estimation was more marked in the non-medical group. Comparison of doctors versus nurses showed no difference in estimation, and no difference was found between grades of staff. PMID:15807956

  13. Braneworld Scenarios from Deformed Defect Chains

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chinaglia, M.; Bernardini, A. E.; da Rocha, Roldão

    2016-06-01

    Novel braneworld scenarios supported by warp factors driven by a single extra dimension are obtained from deformed one-dimensional lump-like solutions known a priori. Through a novel ansatz, the internal energy structure, the braneworld warp factor, and the quantum mechanical analogue problem, as well as the associated zero mode solutions, are straightforwardly derived by means of an analytical procedure. The results allow one to identify thick brane solutions that support internal structures and that can hold the (3+1)-dimensional gravity.

  14. Scenario Development for the Southwestern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahmoud, M.; Gupta, H.; Stewart, S.; Liu, Y.; Hartmann, H.; Wagener, T.

    2006-12-01

    The primary goal of employing a scenario development approach for the U.S. southwest is to inform regional policy by examining future possibilities related to regional vegetation change, water-leasing, and riparian restoration. This approach is necessary due to a lack of existing explicit water resources application of scenarios to the entire southwest region. A formal approach for scenario development is adopted and applied towards water resources issues within the arid and semi-arid regions of the U.S. southwest following five progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. In the scenario definition phase, the inputs of scientists, modelers, and stakeholders were collected in order to define and construct relevant scenarios to the southwest and its water sustainability needs. From stakeholder-driven scenario workshops and breakout sessions, the three main axes of principal change were identified to be climate change, population development patterns, and quality of information monitoring technology. Based on the extreme and varying conditions of these three main axes, eight scenario narratives were drafted to describe the state of each scenario's respective future and the events which led to it. Events and situations are described within each scenario narrative with respect to key variables; variables that are both important to regional water resources (as distinguished by scientists and modelers), and are good tracking and monitoring indicators of change. The current phase consists of scenario construction, where the drafted scenarios are re-presented to regional scientists and modelers to verify that proper key variables are included (or excluded) from the eight narratives. The next step is to construct the data sets necessary to implement the eight scenarios on the respective computational models of modelers investigating vegetation change, water-leasing, and riparian

  15. Student experience of a scenario-centred curriculum

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bell, Sarah; Galilea, Patricia; Tolouei, Reza

    2010-06-01

    In 2006 UCL implemented new scenario-centred degree programmes in Civil and Environmental Engineering. The new curriculum can be characterised as a hybrid of problem-based, project-based and traditional approaches to learning. Four times a year students work in teams for one week on a scenario which aims to integrate learning from lecture and laboratory classes and to develop generic skills including team working and communication. Student experience of the first two years the old and new curricula were evaluated using a modified Course Experience Questionnaire. The results showed that students on the new programme were motivated by the scenarios and perceived better generic skills development, but had a lower perception of teaching quality and the development of design skills. The results of the survey support the implementation new curriculum but highlight the importance of strong integration between conventional teaching and scenarios, and the challenges of adapting teaching styles to suit.

  16. DEVELOPMENT OF IMPACT ORIENTED CLIMATE SCENARIOS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Appropriate scenarios of future climate must be developed prior to any assessment of the impacts of climate change. he information needed by impact assessors was examined in consultation with those having experience in scenario use. ost assessors require regional scenarios with a...

  17. Viability of the Matter Bounce Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Haro, Jaume; Amorós, Jaume

    2015-04-01

    It is shown that teleparallel F(T) theories of gravity combined with Loop Quantum Cosmology support a Matter Bounce Scenario which is an alternative to the inflation scenario in the Big Bang paradigm. It is checked that these bouncing models provide theoretical data that fits well with the current observational data, allowing the viability of the Matter Bounce Scenario.

  18. Scenario Writing: A Vision of the Future.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shewach, Dawn L.

    1991-01-01

    The Scenario Writing component of the Future Problem Solving Program calls for students to write a short-short story exploring variables in the future. This article describes the scenario writing process, presents samples of award-winning scenarios, and offers tips for student-authors and for coaches. (JDD)

  19. Development and Change through Scenario Planning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chermack, Thomas J.; Walton, John S.

    2004-01-01

    This paper examines the role of scenario planning as a development and change intervention. To do so, this article provides an overview of scenario planning and an overview of development and change in organizations. The article then builds on the philosophical orientations of development and change through scenario planning introducing the…

  20. Scenario aggregation for supply chain quantity-flexibility contract

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Gitae; Wu, Chih-Hang

    2013-11-01

    In this research, we apply a scenario aggregation approach to solving the supply chain contract model formulated by two-stage stochastic programming problem. The supply chain contract can achieve the coordination between the buyer and the supplier. We formulate the stochastic programming model for a quantity-flexibility contract. The scenario aggregation method called the progressive hedging method is used to solve this problem. Experimental results show the convergence behaviour of the algorithm and the sensitivity of parameters.

  1. Applying fuzzy bi-dimensional scenario-based model to the assessment of Mars mission architecture scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tavana, Madjid; Zandi, Faramak

    2012-02-01

    Sending man to Mars has been a long-held dream of humankind. NASA plans human planetary explorations using approaches that are technically feasible, have reasonable risks and have relatively low costs. This study presents a novel Multi-Attribute Decision Making (MADM) model for evaluating a range of potential mission scenarios for the human exploration of Mars. The three alternatives identified by the Mission Operations Directorate (MOD) at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) include split mission, combo lander and dual scenarios. The proposed framework subsumes the following key methods: first, the conjunction method is used to minimize the number of alternative mission scenarios; second, the Fuzzy Risk Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (RFMEA) is used to analyze the potential failure of the alternative scenarios; third, the fuzzy group Real Option Analysis (ROA) is used to estimate the expected costs and benefits of the alternative scenarios; and fourth, the fuzzy group permutation approach is used to select the optimal mission scenario. We present the results of a case study at NASA's Johnson Space center to demonstrate: (1) the complexity of mission scenario selection involving subjective and objective judgments provided by multiple space exploration experts; and (2) a systematic and structured method for aggregating quantitative and qualitative data concerning a large number of competing and conflicting mission events.

  2. Cancer care scenario in Bangladesh

    PubMed Central

    Uddin, A. F. M. Kamal; Khan, Zohora Jameela; Islam, Johirul; Mahmud, AM

    2013-01-01

    Bangladesh is a developing country that is facing many challenges, especially in the health sector. Cancer management is a priority due to the current trend of increased incidence in this region. In this article, the current scenario of cancer in Bangladesh and its management with brief history is outlined. The combined effort of government and private sector is highlighted with the gradual progress in cancer management. Recent introduction of the state-of-the-art facilities and the training facilities for human resource development are also outlined. The existing challenges and cooperation from local NGOs and other overseas sources are also highlighted to provide an insight regarding possible ways to tackle these challenges to ensure a better future. PMID:24455570

  3. SAPPHIRE: scenarios, architecture, and process.

    PubMed

    Kay, S; Redman, R; McWilliams, A; Bradley, P; Daniels, A

    1994-06-01

    General Medical Practice (GMP) information systems within the UK are becoming more sophisticated and more complex and are widely available from numerous suppliers. Although such systems are viewed as being important, they are problematic in terms of interpreting and assessing their usefulness, and their impact upon work and the organisation (G. Walsham, Interpreting Information Systems in Organizations (Wiley, Chichester, 1993)). In particular, it is difficult for any who have an interest in these systems to apply existing technical specifications to a specific situation, and to match individual requirements with the supplier's products. The research project SAPPHIRE seeks to inform the decision making of stakeholders, e.g. GPs, facilitators and suppliers, with respect to procurement, update, design and supply of GMP systems by developing the means of evaluating such systems, and by facilitating an accreditation process through that evaluation. This extended paper introduces the multi-faceted approach, scenarios, architecture and process of SAPPHIRE. PMID:7956163

  4. State-Resolved Dynamics of the CN(B2Sigma+) and CH(A2Delta)Excited Products Resulting from the VUV Photodissociation of CH3CN

    SciTech Connect

    Howle, Chris R.; Arrowsmith, Alan N.; Chikan, Viktor; Leone,Stephen R.

    2007-01-18

    Fourier transform visible spectroscopy, in conjunction withVUV photons produced by a synchrotron, is employed to investigate thephotodissociation of CH3CN. Emission is observed from both theCN(B2Sigma+ - X2Sigma+) and CH(A2Delta - X2PI) transitions; only theformer is observed in spectra recorded at 10.2 and 11.5 eV, whereas bothare detected in the 16 eV spectrum. The rotational and vibrationaltemperatures of both the CN(B2Sigma+) and CH(A2Delta) radical productsare derived using a combination of spectral simulations and Boltzmannplots. The CN(B2Sigma+) fragment displays a bimodal rotationaldistribution in all cases. Trot(CN(B2Sigma+)) ranges from 375 to 600 K atlower K' and from 1840 to 7700 K at higher K' depending on the photonenergy used. Surprisal analyses indicate clear bimodal rotationaldistributions, suggesting CN(B2Sigma+) is formed via either linear orbent transition states, respectively, depending on the extent ofrotational excitation in this fragment. CH(A2Delta) has a singlerotational distribution when produced at 16 eV which results inTrot(CH(A2Delta)) = 4895 +- 140 K in nu' = 0 and 2590 +- 110 K in nu' =1. From thermodynamic calculations, it is evident that CH(A2Delta) isproduced along with CN(X2Sigma+) + H2. These products can be formed by atwo step mechanism (via excited CH3* and ground state CN(X2Sigma+) or aprocess similar to the "roaming" atom mechanism; the data obtained hereare insufficient to definitively conclude whether either pathway occurs.A comparison of the CH(A2Delta) and CN(B2Sigma+) rotational distributionsproduced by 16 eV photons allows the ratio between the two excitedfragments at this energy to be determined. An expression that considersthe rovibrational populations of both band systems results in aCH(A2Delta):CN(B2Sigma+) ratio of (1.2 +- 0.1):1 at 16 eV, therebyindicating that production of CH(A2Delta) is significant at 16eV.

  5. Technical Feasibility Assessment of Lunar Base Mission Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Magelssen, Trygve ``Spike''; Sadeh, Eligar

    2005-02-01

    Investigation of the literature pertaining to lunar base (LB) missions and the technologies required for LB development has revealed an information gap that hinders technical feasibility assessment. This information gap is the absence of technical readiness levels (TRL) (Mankins, 1995) and information pertaining to the criticality of the critical enabling technologies (CETs) that enable mission success. TRL is a means of identifying technical readiness stages of a technology. Criticality is defined as the level of influence the CET has on the mission scenario. The hypothesis of this research study is that technical feasibility is a function of technical readiness and technical readiness is a function of criticality. A newly developed research analysis method is used to identify the technical feasibility of LB mission scenarios. A Delphi is used to ascertain technical readiness levels and CET criticality-to-mission. The research analysis method is applied to the Delphi results to determine the technical feasibility of the LB mission scenarios that include: observatory, science research, lunar settlement, space exploration gateway, space resource utilization, and space tourism. The CETs identified encompasses four major system level technologies of: transportation, life support, structures, and power systems. Results of the technical feasibility assessment show the observatory and science research LB mission scenarios to be more technical ready out of all the scenarios, but all mission scenarios are in very close proximity to each other in regard to criticality and TRL and no one mission scenario stands out as being absolutely more technically ready than any of the other scenarios. What is significant and of value are the Delphi results concerning CET criticality-to-mission and the TRL values evidenced in the Tables that can be used by anyone assessing the technical feasibility of LB missions.

  6. Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning

    PubMed Central

    Ghanem, Mohamed; Schnoor, Jörg; Heyde, Christoph-Eckhard; Kuwatsch, Sandra; Bohn, Marco; Josten, Christoph

    2015-01-01

    Background: Instead of waiting for challenges to confront hospital management, doctors and managers should act in advance to optimize and sustain value-based health. This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed to. Methodology: Based on literature analysis as well as on personal interviews with stakeholders we propose an elaborated definition of stakeholders and designed a questionnaire that integrated the following influence factors, which have relevant impact on hospital management: political/legal, economic, social, technological and environmental forces. These influence factors are examined to develop the so-called critical uncertainties. Thorough identification of uncertainties was based on a “Stakeholder Feedback”. Results: Two key uncertainties were identified and considered in this study: the development of workload for the medical staff the profit oriented performance of the medical staff. According to the developed scenarios, complementary education of the medical staff as well as of non-medical top executives and managers of hospitals was the recommended core strategy. Complementary scenario-specific strategic options should be considered whenever needed to optimize dealing with a specific future development of the health care environment. Conclusion: Strategic planning in hospitals is essential to ensure sustainable success. It considers multiple situations and integrates internal and external insights and perspectives in addition to identifying weak signals and “blind spots”. This flows into a sound planning for multiple strategic options. It is a state of the art tool that allows dealing with the increasing challenges facing hospital management. PMID:26504735

  7. Science for decision making: Transmitting hazard science using catastrophic scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wein, A.

    2010-12-01

    -motivated individuals who took on leadership roles in their communities or industrial sectors), customized and localized analyses, and workshops enhanced the use of hazard science. Examples from the two scenarios will be used to illustrate these points. We experienced several significant challenges in using science to enhance emergency management exercises and community decision making. Some of these challenges include 1) adapting scientific results to exercise format; 2) the special needs of recovery exercises, which can mimic response exercises only with limited success, because recovery is tactical while response is strategic; 3) staff turnover; and 4) limited resources. An important future direction will be to leverage our in-depth knowledge of scenarios, multi-disciplinary network, and stakeholder relations to integrate knowledge about multiple hazards to better inform risk-based decision making for all hazards.

  8. Does extreme precipitation intensity depend on the emissions scenario?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pendergrass, Angeline G.; Lehner, Flavio; Sanderson, Benjamin M.; Xu, Yangyang

    2015-10-01

    The rate of increase of global-mean precipitation per degree global-mean surface temperature increase differs for greenhouse gas and aerosol forcings and across emissions scenarios with differing composition of change in forcing. We investigate whether or not the rate of change of extreme precipitation also varies across the four emissions scenarios that force the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, version 5 multimodel ensemble. In most models, the rate of increase of maximum annual daily precipitation per degree global warming in the multimodel ensemble is statistically indistinguishable across the four scenarios, whether this extreme precipitation is calculated globally, over all land, or over extratropical land. These results indicate that in contrast to mean precipitation, extreme precipitation depends on the total amount of warming and does not depend on emissions scenario in most models.

  9. Developing a Scenario for widespread use: Best practices, lessons learned

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Perry, S.; Jones, L.; Cox, D.

    2011-01-01

    The ShakeOut Scenario is probably the most widely known and used earthquake scenario created to date. Much of the credit for its widespread dissemination and application lies with scenario development criteria that focused on the needs and involvement of end users and with a suite of products that tailored communication of the results to varied end users, who ranged from emergency managers to the general public, from corporations to grassroots organizations. Products were most effective when they were highly visual, when they emphasized the findings of social scientists, and when they communicated the experience of living through the earthquake. This paper summarizes the development criteria and the products that made the ShakeOut Scenario so widely known and used, and it provides some suggestions for future improvements. ?? 2011, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  10. Methods for Developing Emissions Scenarios for Integrated Assessment Models

    SciTech Connect

    Prinn, Ronald; Webster, Mort

    2007-08-20

    The overall objective of this research was to contribute data and methods to support the future development of new emissions scenarios for integrated assessment of climate change. Specifically, this research had two main objectives: 1. Use historical data on economic growth and energy efficiency changes, and develop probability density functions (PDFs) for the appropriate parameters for two or three commonly used integrated assessment models. 2. Using the parameter distributions developed through the first task and previous work, we will develop methods of designing multi-gas emission scenarios that usefully span the joint uncertainty space in a small number of scenarios. Results on the autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI) parameter are summarized, an uncertainty analysis of elasticities of substitution is described, and the probabilistic emissions scenario approach is presented.

  11. Nowhere to Invade: Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia Projected to Disappear under Future Climate Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Xu, Zhonglin; Feng, Zhaodong; Yang, Jianjun; Zheng, Jianghua; Zhang, Fang

    2013-01-01

    Future climate change has been predicted to affect the potential distribution of plant species. However, only few studies have addressed how invasive species may respond to future climate change despite the known effects of plant species invasion on nutrient cycles, ecosystem functions, and agricultural yields. In this study, we predicted the potential distributions of two invasive species, Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia, under current and future (2050) climatic conditions. Future climate scenarios considered in our study include A1B, A2, A2A, B1, and B2A. We found that these two species will lose their habitat under the A1B, A2, A2A, and B1 scenarios. Their distributions will be maintained under future climatic conditions related to B2A scenarios, but the total area will be less than 10% of that under the current climatic condition. We also investigated variations of the most influential climatic variables that are likely to cause habitat loss of the two species. Our results demonstrate that rising mean annual temperature, variations of the coldest quarter, and precipitation of the coldest quarter are the main factors contributing to habitat loss of R. crispus. For T. latifolia, the main factors are rising mean annual temperature, variations in temperature of the coldest quarter, mean annual precipitation, and precipitation of the coldest quarter. These results demonstrate that the warmer and wetter climatic conditions of the coldest season (or month) will be mainly responsible for habitat loss of R. crispus and T. latifolia in the future. We also discuss uncertainties related to our study (and similar studies) and suggest that particular attention should be directed toward the manner in which invasive species cope with rapid climate changes because evolutionary change can be rapid for species that invade new areas. PMID:23923020

  12. Nowhere to invade: Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia projected to disappear under future climate scenarios.

    PubMed

    Xu, Zhonglin; Feng, Zhaodong; Yang, Jianjun; Zheng, Jianghua; Zhang, Fang

    2013-01-01

    Future climate change has been predicted to affect the potential distribution of plant species. However, only few studies have addressed how invasive species may respond to future climate change despite the known effects of plant species invasion on nutrient cycles, ecosystem functions, and agricultural yields. In this study, we predicted the potential distributions of two invasive species, Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia, under current and future (2050) climatic conditions. Future climate scenarios considered in our study include A1B, A2, A2A, B1, and B2A. We found that these two species will lose their habitat under the A1B, A2, A2A, and B1 scenarios. Their distributions will be maintained under future climatic conditions related to B2A scenarios, but the total area will be less than 10% of that under the current climatic condition. We also investigated variations of the most influential climatic variables that are likely to cause habitat loss of the two species. Our results demonstrate that rising mean annual temperature, variations of the coldest quarter, and precipitation of the coldest quarter are the main factors contributing to habitat loss of R. crispus. For T. latifolia, the main factors are rising mean annual temperature, variations in temperature of the coldest quarter, mean annual precipitation, and precipitation of the coldest quarter. These results demonstrate that the warmer and wetter climatic conditions of the coldest season (or month) will be mainly responsible for habitat loss of R. crispus and T. latifolia in the future. We also discuss uncertainties related to our study (and similar studies) and suggest that particular attention should be directed toward the manner in which invasive species cope with rapid climate changes because evolutionary change can be rapid for species that invade new areas. PMID:23923020

  13. Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century

    PubMed Central

    Biewald, Anne; Weindl, Isabelle; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann

    2015-01-01

    Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries. PMID:26536124

  14. Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century.

    PubMed

    Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Rolinski, Susanne; Biewald, Anne; Weindl, Isabelle; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann

    2015-01-01

    Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries. PMID:26536124

  15. Constellation Architecture Team-Lunar Scenario 12.0 Habitation Overview

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kennedy, Kriss J.; Toups, Larry; Rudisill, Marianne

    2009-01-01

    This paper will describe an overview of the Constellation Architecture Team Lunar Scenario 12.0 surface habitation approach, concept, and assessments performed during the study definition. The Lunar Scenario 12 architecture study focused on two primary habitation approaches: a horizontally-oriented habitation module (LS-12.0) and a vertically-oriented habitation module (LS-12.1). This paper will provide an overview of 12.0 lunar surface campaign, the associated outpost architecture, habitation functionality, concept description, system integration strategy, mass and power resource estimates. The Scenario 12 architecture resulted from combining three previous scenarios after the Lunar Surface Systems (LSS) Project Office meeting in April 28-30, 2009. The best attributes from Scenario 4 "Optimized Exploration", Scenario 5 "Fission Surface Power System" and Scenario 8 "Initial Extensive Mobility" were combined into Scenario 12 along with an added emphasis on defining the excursion ConOps while the crew is away from the outpost location.

  16. Climate change scenarios and key climate indices in the Swiss Alpine region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zubler, Elias; Croci-Maspoli, Mischa; Frei, Christoph; Liniger, Mark; Scherrer, Simon; Appenzeller, Christof

    2013-04-01

    For climate adaption and to support climate mitigation policy it is of outermost importance to demonstrate the consequences of climate change on a local level and in user oriented quantities. Here, a framework is presented to apply the Swiss national climate change scenarios CH2011 to climate indices with direct relevance to applications, such as tourism, transportation, agriculture and health. This framework provides results on a high spatial and temporal resolution and can also be applied in mountainous regions such as the Alps. Results are shown for some key indices, such as the number of summer days and tropical nights, growing season length, number of frost days, heating and cooling degree days, and the number of days with fresh snow. Particular focus is given to changes in the vertical distribution for the future periods 2020-2049, 2045-2074 and 2070-2099 relative to the reference period 1980-2009 for the A1B, A2 and RCP3PD scenario. The number of days with fresh snow is approximated using a combination of temperature and precipitation as proxies. Some findings for the latest scenario period are: (1) a doubling of the number of summer days by the end of the century under the business-as-usual scenario A2, (2) tropical nights appear above 1500 m asl, (3) the number of frost days may be reduced by more than 3 months at altitudes higher than 2500 m, (4) an overall reduction of heating degree days of about 30% by the end of the century, but on the other hand an increase in cooling degree days in warm seasons, and (5) the number of days with fresh snow tends to go towards zero at low altitudes. In winter, there is little change in snowfall above 2000 m asl (roughly -3 days) in all scenarios. The largest impact on snowfall is found along the Northern Alpine flank and the Jura (-10 days or roughly -50% in A1B for the winter season). It is also highlighted that the future projections for all indices strongly depend on the chosen scenario and on model uncertainty

  17. Biomass Scenario Model Documentation: Data and References

    SciTech Connect

    Lin, Y.; Newes, E.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.; Stright, D.

    2013-05-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model that represents the entire biomass-to-biofuels supply chain, from feedstock to fuel use. The BSM is a complex model that has been used for extensive analyses; the model and its results can be better understood if input data used for initialization and calibration are well-characterized. It has been carefully validated and calibrated against the available data, with data gaps filled in using expert opinion and internally consistent assumed values. Most of the main data sources that feed into the model are recognized as baseline values by the industry. This report documents data sources and references in Version 2 of the BSM (BSM2), which only contains the ethanol pathway, although subsequent versions of the BSM contain multiple conversion pathways. The BSM2 contains over 12,000 total input values, with 506 distinct variables. Many of the variables are opportunities for the user to define scenarios, while others are simply used to initialize a stock, such as the initial number of biorefineries. However, around 35% of the distinct variables are defined by external sources, such as models or reports. The focus of this report is to provide insight into which sources are most influential in each area of the supply chain.

  18. Emergent universe in the braneworld scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heydarzade, Y.; Hadi, H.; Darabi, F.; Sheykhi, A.

    2016-06-01

    According to Padmanabhan's proposal, the difference between the surface degrees of freedom and the bulk degrees of freedom in a region of space may result in the acceleration of Universe expansion through the relation Δ V/Δ t = N_sur-N_bulk where N_bulk and N_sur are referred to the degrees of freedom related to the matter and energy content inside the bulk and surface area, respectively (Padmanabhan, arXiv:1206.4916v1, 2012). In this paper, we study the dynamical effect of the extrinsic geometrical embedding of an arbitrary four-dimensional brane in a higher-dimensional bulk space and investigate the corresponding degrees of freedom. Considering the modification of the Friedmann equations arising from a general braneworld scenario, we obtain a correction term in Padmanabhan's relation, denoting the number of degrees of freedom related to the extrinsic geometry of the brane embedded in higher-dimensional spacetime as Δ V /Δ t=N_sur-N_bulk-N_extr where N_extr is for the degree of freedom related to the extrinsic geometry of the brane, while N_sur and N_bulk are defined as before. Finally, we study the validity of the first and second laws of thermodynamics for this general braneworld scenario in the state of thermal equilibrium and in the presence of confined matter fields to the brane with the induced geometric matter fields.

  19. Type Ia Supernova Models and Progenitor Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nomoto, Ken'ichi; Kamiya, Yasuomi; Nakasato, Naohito

    2013-01-01

    We review some recent developments in theoretical studies on the connection between the progenitor systems of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) and the explosion mechanisms. (1) DD-subCh: In the merging of double C+O white dwarfs (DD scenario), if the carbon detonation is induced near the white dwarf (WD) surface in the early dynamical phase, it could result in the (effectively) sub-Chandrasekhar mass explosion. (2) DD-Ch: If no surface C-detonation is ignited, the WD could grow until the Chandrasekhar mass is reached, but the outcome depends on whether the quiescent carbon shell burning is ignited and burns C+O into O+Ne+Mg. (3) SD-subCh: In the single degenerate (SD) scenario, if the He shell-flashes grow strong to induce a He detonation, it leads to the sub-Chandra explosion. (4) SD-Ch: If the He-shell flashes are not strong enough, they still produce interesting amounts of Si and S near the surface of the C+O WD before the explosion. In the Chandra mass explosion, the central density is high enough to produce electron capture elements, e.g., stable 58Ni. Observations of the emission lines of Ni in the nebular spectra provides useful diagnostics of the sub-Chandra vs. Chandra issue. The recent observations of relatively low velocity carbon near the surface of SNe Ia provide also an interesting constraint on the explosion models.

  20. A Methodology for Integrated, Multiregional Life Cycle Assessment Scenarios under Large-Scale Technological Change.

    PubMed

    Gibon, Thomas; Wood, Richard; Arvesen, Anders; Bergesen, Joseph D; Suh, Sangwon; Hertwich, Edgar G

    2015-09-15

    Climate change mitigation demands large-scale technological change on a global level and, if successfully implemented, will significantly affect how products and services are produced and consumed. In order to anticipate the life cycle environmental impacts of products under climate mitigation scenarios, we present the modeling framework of an integrated hybrid life cycle assessment model covering nine world regions. Life cycle assessment databases and multiregional input-output tables are adapted using forecasted changes in technology and resources up to 2050 under a 2 °C scenario. We call the result of this modeling "technology hybridized environmental-economic model with integrated scenarios" (THEMIS). As a case study, we apply THEMIS in an integrated environmental assessment of concentrating solar power. Life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions for this plant range from 33 to 95 g CO2 eq./kWh across different world regions in 2010, falling to 30-87 g CO2 eq./kWh in 2050. Using regional life cycle data yields insightful results. More generally, these results also highlight the need for systematic life cycle frameworks that capture the actual consequences and feedback effects of large-scale policies in the long term. PMID:26308384

  1. Innovations in science and scenarios for assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Moss, Richard; Parris, Adam

    2015-08-29

    Scenarios for the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3) were produced for physical climate and sea level rise with substantial input from disciplinary and regional experts. These scenarios underwent extensive review and were published as NOAA Technical Reports. For land use/cover and socioeconomic conditions, scenarios already developed by other agencies were specified for use in the NCA3. Efforts to enhance participatory scenario planning as an assessment activity were pursued, but with limited success. Issues and challenges included the timing of availability of scenarios, the need for guidance in use of scenarios, the need for approaches to nest information within multiple scales and sectors, engagement and collaboration of end users in scenario development, and development of integrated scenarios. Future assessments would benefit from an earlier start to scenarios development, the provision of training in addition to guidance documents, new and flexible approaches for nesting information, ongoing engagement and advice from both scientific and end user communities, and the development of consistent and integrated scenarios.

  2. Atlantic Hurricanes in Future Scenarios and Associated Insurance Losses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kleppek, S.; Wüest, M.; Raible, C. C.; Kitoh, A.; Murakami, H.; Stocker, T. F.; Muccione, V.; Bresch, D. N.

    2009-04-01

    The hurricane season 2005 in the Atlantic was the most intense season since the first records with 28 tropical storms of which 15 reached hurricane character (Trenberth and Shea, 2006). Although this year is considered to be an outlier, a substantial increase of the activity of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the tropical Atlantic over the last decades is documented (Sriver and Huber, 2006; Hoyos et al., 2006; Webster et al. 2005; Emanuel, 2005). The role of the sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic for the tropical storm activity was discussed already in Emanuel (2005) and Hoyos et al. (2006). Future changes of TC activity is currently under debate (e. g. Bengston et al., 2007). We contribute to this by applying our TC detection and tracking method which was developed for ERA-40 data (Kleppek et al., 2008) to time-slice experiments of two models: The ECHAM5 atmospheric model (MPI, Hamburg, Germany) and the 20 km-mesh, high resolution AGCM (MRI, Tsukuba-city, Japan). From each model two climate simulations are available: For the ECHAM5 a control run for the period 1960-90 and a SRES A2 scenario run for the period 2070-2100 and for the Mesh-AGCM a 20 years run with present day conditions and a 20 years run with end-of-21-century A2 conditions. To estimate losses of the ECHAM5- and Mesh-model hurricanes on the US coast, we have developed probabilistic hurricane event sets which are used as input for catXos, the loss model of the Swiss Reinsurance Company. Preliminary results show higher wind speeds of the ECHAM5 scenario run hurricanes than in the control run, but the numbers of the hurricanes of Saffir-Simpson-scale 2 to 4 show no clear difference between the control and scenario run of ECHAM5. Even though the resolution of the simulation is rather high no hurricanes of Saffir-Simpson-scale 5 are detected. The total number of TCs decreases for the scenario run. This applies as much to the TCs over the Atlantic as over the US-coast. References: Bengston L., K

  3. Modeling framework for exploring emission impacts of alternative future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loughlin, D. H.; Benjey, W. G.; Nolte, C. G.

    2010-11-01

    This article presents an approach for creating anthropogenic emission scenarios that can be used to simulate future regional air quality. The approach focuses on energy production and use since these are principal sources of air pollution. We use the MARKAL model to characterize alternative realizations of the US energy system through 2050. Emission growth factors are calculated for major energy system categories using MARKAL, while growth factors from non-energy sectors are based on economic and population projections. The SMOKE model uses these factors to grow a base-year 2002 inventory to future years through 2050. The approach is demonstrated for two emission scenarios: Scenario 1 extends current air regulations through 2050, while Scenario 2 applies a hypothetical policy that limits carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the energy system. Although both scenarios show significant reductions in air pollutant emissions through time, these reductions are more pronounced in Scenario 2, where the CO2 policy results in the adoption of technologies with lower emissions of both CO2 and traditional air pollutants. The methodology is expected to play an important role in investigations of linkages among emission drivers, climate and air quality by the U.S. EPA and others.

  4. Regional aspect of highly water-stressed population estimated by world water resources under SRES scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kiguchi, M.; Shen, Y.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

    2008-12-01

    Global and regional populations lived in highly water-stressed basin for a function of the temperature were estimated using the socio-economical data and the outputs of GCMs. In global, the highly water-stressed population in scenario A2 rapidly increased when the anomaly of temperature is exceeding to about +1.5 deg.. In the case of the scenario A1b, the gradient of increase of highly water-stressed population was less than that in the case of the scenario A2. When the value of temperature anomaly was exceeding to about + 1.5 deg., the gradient of increase of highly water-stressed population became loose. On the other hand, the highly water-stressed population in the scenario B1 decreased when the temperature anomaly was exceeding to about +1.2 deg.. According to the estimation of the highly water-stressed population when the effect of climate change was ignored (that is, runoff was not changed), the highly water-stressed population was almost same. This result implied that it is strongly contributed by not the climate change but the socio- economical factors (ex; an irrigated area, increase of industrial water use, increase of population itself). Parry et al. (2001) pointed out that the influence on the water risk by the climate change is serious when the anomaly of temperature is exceeding to +2 deg.. However, our assessment disagrees with their assignment. When the highly water-stressed population assessment is estimated within the social elements (ex., the increase of irrigation demand, industrial demand, and population itself), the climate change is not so effective. Part of this study was financially supported by the Global Environment Research Fund, "S-4" and "S-5", from the Japanese Ministry of the Environment.

  5. Transportation accident scenarios for commercial spent fuel

    SciTech Connect

    Wilmot, E L

    1981-02-01

    A spectrum of high severity, low probability, transportation accident scenarios involving commercial spent fuel is presented together with mechanisms, pathways and quantities of material that might be released from spent fuel to the environment. These scenarios are based on conclusions from a workshop, conducted in May 1980 to discuss transportation accident scenarios, in which a group of experts reviewed and critiqued available literature relating to spent fuel behavior and cask response in accidents.

  6. Assessement of user needs for climate change scenarios in Switzerland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fischer, Andreas; Liniger, Mark; Flückiger-Knutti, Jacqueline

    2016-04-01

    There is a growing demand to assess and inform about future climate change and its impacts on society and ecosystems and to deduce appropriate adaptation strategies. The basis for such assessments are reliable and up-to-date climate change scenarios on the local to regional scale. In Switzerland, an important step has been accomplished by the release of the climate scenarios in 2011 ("CH2011"). New climate model simulations, an improved scientific understanding and new statistical downscaling tools make an update of these scenarios necessary. An important component toward the new national scenarios "CH2018" are the consideration of user needs in order to ensure that the new scenarios are user-tailored and hence find a wide applicability. The new CH2018 scenarios are developed in the framework of the recently founded National Center for Climate Services (NCCS). To get a better overview of who the users of climate scenarios are and what they need, a comprehensive market research was undertaken. The survey targeted the most climate-relevant sectors, and considered representatives from administration, research and private companies across Switzerland. The survey comprised several qualitative group interviews with key stakeholders, as well as a written questionaire, answered by more than one hundred users. Additionally, two workshops were organized to gather the needs in dissemination of climate scenarios. The results of the survey show the necessity to classify the user needs according to the level of usage: "intensive users" are mainly researchers who handle large climate scenario data for further use in subsequent impact studies; "extensive users" are usually from administrations or consulting companies and perform simple calculations for specific questions or use provided graphics and tables; "facilitators" are usually from media, NGOs or schools and process and disseminate scenario information for a specific target group. The less intensive the usage of climate

  7. MIOSAT Mission Scenario and Design

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agostara, C.; Dionisio, C.; Sgroi, G.; di Salvo, A.

    2008-08-01

    MIOSAT ("Mssione Ottica su microSATellite") is a low-cost technological / scientific microsatellite mission for Earth Observation, funded by Italian Space Agency (ASI) and managed by a Group Agreement between Rheinmetall Italia - B.U. Spazio - Contraves as leader and Carlo Gavazzi Space as satellite manufacturer. Several others Italians Companies, SME and Universities are involved in the development team with crucial roles. MIOSAT is a microsatellite weighting around 120 kg and placed in a 525 km altitude sun-synchronuos circular LEO orbit. The microsatellite embarks three innovative optical payloads: Sagnac multi spectral radiometer (IFAC-CNR), Mach Zehender spectrometer (IMM-CNR), high resolution pancromatic camera (Selex Galileo). In addition three technological experiments will be tested in-flight. The first one is an heat pipe based on Marangoni effect with high efficiency. The second is a high accuracy Sun Sensor using COTS components and the last is a GNSS SW receiver that utilizes a Leon2 processor. Finally a new generation of 28% efficiency solar cells will be adopted for the power generation. The platform is highly agile and can tilt along and cross flight direction. The pointing accuracy is in the order of 0,1° for each axe. The pointing determination during images acquisition is <0,02° for the axis normal to the boresight and 0,04° for the boresight. This paper deals with MIOSAT mission scenario and definition, highlighting trade-offs for mission implementation. MIOSAT mission design has been constrained from challenging requirements in terms of satellite mass, mission lifetime, instrument performance, that have implied the utilization of satellite agility capability to improve instruments performance in terms of S/N and resolution. The instruments provide complementary measurements that can be combined in effective ways to exploit new applications in the fields of atmosphere composition analysis, Earth emissions, antropic phenomena, etc. The Mission

  8. From Scenarios to Test Implementations Via Promela

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ulrich, Andreas; Alikacem, El-Hachemi; Hallal, Hesham H.; Boroday, Sergiy

    We report on a tool for generating executable concurrent tests from scenarios specified as message sequence charts. The proposed approach features three steps: 1) Deriving a MSC test implementation from a MSC scenario, 2) Mapping the test implementation into a Promela model, 3) Generating executable test scripts in Java. The generation of an intermediate Promela model allows for model-checking to inspect the test implementation for properties like soundness, fault detection power as well as for consistency checking between different test scenarios. Moreover decoupling the executable test scripts from the scenario specification makes it possible to use different backend code generators to support other scripting languages when needed.

  9. Scenario analysis for integrated water resources planning and management under uncertainty in the Zayandehrud river basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Safavi, Hamid R.; Golmohammadi, Mohammad H.; Sandoval-Solis, Samuel

    2016-08-01

    The goal of this study is to develop and analyze three scenarios in the Zayandehrud river basin in Iran using a model already built and calibrated by Safavi et al. (2015) that has results for the baseline scenario. Results from the baseline scenario show that water demands will be supplied at the cost of depletion of surface and ground water resources, making this scenario undesirable and unsustainable. Supply Management, Demand Management, and Meta (supply and demand management) scenarios are the selected scenarios in this study. They are to be developed and declared into the Zayandehrud model to assess and evaluate the imminent status of the basin. Certain strategies will be employed for this purpose to improve and rectify the current management policies. The five performance criteria of time-based and volumetric reliability, resilience, vulnerability, and maximum deficit will be employed in the process of scenario analysis and evaluation. The results obtained from the performance criteria will be summed up into a so-called 'Water Resources Sustainability Index' to facilitate comparison among the likely trade-offs. Uncertainties arising from historical data, management policies, rainfall-runoff model, demand priorities, and performance criteria are considered in the proposed conceptual framework and modeled by appropriate approaches. Results show that the Supply Management scenario can be used to improve upon the demand supply but that it has no tangible effects on the improvement of the resources in the study region. In this regard, the Demand Management scenario is found to be more effective than the water supply one although it still remains unacceptable. Results of the Meta scenario indicate that both the supply and demand management scenarios must be applied if the water resources are to be safeguarded against degradation and depletion. In other words, the supply management scenario is necessary but not adequate; rather, it must be coupled to the demand

  10. Uncertainty of simulated groundwater levels arising from stochastic transient climate change scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goderniaux, Pascal; Brouyère, Serge; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Burton, Aidan; Fowler, Hayley; Dassargues, Alain

    2010-05-01

    The evaluation of climate change impact on groundwater reserves represents a difficult task because both hydrological and climatic processes are complex and difficult to model. In this study, we present an innovative methodology that combines the use of integrated surface - subsurface hydrological models with advanced stochastic transient climate change scenarios. This methodology is applied to the Geer basin (480 km²) in Belgium, which is intensively exploited to supply the city of Liège (Belgium) with drinking water. The physically-based, spatially-distributed, surface-subsurface flow model has been developed with the finite element model HydroGeoSphere . The simultaneous solution of surface and subsurface flow equations in HydroGeoSphere, as well as the internal calculation of the actual evapotranspiration as a function of the soil moisture at each node of the evaporative zone, enables a better representation of interconnected processes in all domains of the catchment (fully saturated zone, partially saturated zone, surface). Additionally, the use of both surface and subsurface observed data to calibrate the model better constrains the calibration of the different water balance terms. Crucially, in the context of climate change impacts on groundwater resources, the evaluation of groundwater recharge is improved. . This surface-subsurface flow model is combined with advanced climate change scenarios for the Geer basin. Climate change simulations were obtained from six regional climate model (RCM) scenarios assuming the SRES A2 greenhouse gases emission (medium-high) scenario. These RCM scenarios were statistically downscaled using a transient stochastic weather generator technique, combining 'RainSim' and the 'CRU weather generator' for temperature and evapotranspiration time series. This downscaling technique exhibits three advantages compared with the 'delta change' method usually used in groundwater impact studies. (1) Corrections to climate model output are

  11. Temperature increase of 21st century mitigation scenarios.

    PubMed

    Van Vuuren, D P; Meinshausen, M; Plattner, G-K; Joos, F; Strassmann, K M; Smith, S J; Wigley, T M L; Raper, S C B; Riahi, K; de la Chesnaye, F; den Elzen, M G J; Fujino, J; Jiang, K; Nakicenovic, N; Paltsev, S; Reilly, J M

    2008-10-01

    Estimates of 21st Century global-mean surface temperature increase have generally been based on scenarios that do not include climate policies. Newly developed multigas mitigation scenarios, based on a wide range of modeling approaches and socioeconomic assumptions, now allow the assessment of possible impacts of climate policies on projected warming ranges. This article assesses the atmospheric CO(2) concentrations, radiative forcing, and temperature increase for these new scenarios using two reduced-complexity climate models. These scenarios result in temperature increase of 0.5-4.4 degrees C over 1990 levels or 0.3-3.4 degrees C less than the no-policy cases. The range results from differences in the assumed stringency of climate policy and uncertainty in our understanding of the climate system. Notably, an average minimum warming of approximately 1.4 degrees C (with a full range of 0.5-2.8 degrees C) remains for even the most stringent stabilization scenarios analyzed here. This value is substantially above previously estimated committed warming based on climate system inertia alone. The results show that, although ambitious mitigation efforts can significantly reduce global warming, adaptation measures will be needed in addition to mitigation to reduce the impact of the residual warming. PMID:18838680

  12. Integrated climate/land use/hydrological change scenarios for assessing threats to ecosystem services on California rangelands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Byrd, K. B.; Flint, L. E.; Casey, C. F.; Alvarez, P.; Sleeter, B. M.; Sohl, T.

    2013-12-01

    In California there are over 18 million acres of rangelands in the Central Valley and the interior Coast Range, most of which are privately owned and managed for livestock production. Ranches provide extensive wildlife habitat and generate multiple ecosystem services that carry considerable market and non-market values. These rangelands are under pressure from urbanization and conversion to intensive agriculture, as well as from climate change that can alter the flow of these services. To understand the coupled and isolated impacts of land use and climate change on rangeland ecosystem services, we developed six spatially explicit (250 m) coupled climate/land use/hydrological change scenarios for the Central Valley and oak woodland regions of California consistent with three IPCC emission scenarios - A2, A1B and B1. Three land use land cover (LULC) change scenarios were each integrated with two downscaled global climate models (GCMs) (a warm, wet future and a hot, dry future) and related hydrologic data. We used these scenarios to quantify wildlife habitat, water supply (recharge potential and streamflow) and carbon sequestration on rangelands and to conduct an economic analysis associated with changes in these benefits. The USGS FOREcasting SCEnarios of land-use change model (FORE-SCE), which runs dynamically with downscaled GCM outputs, was used to generate maps of yearly LULC change for each scenario from 2006 to 2100. We used the USGS Basin Characterization Model (BCM), a regional water balance model, to generate change in runoff, recharge, and stream discharge based on land use change and climate change. Metrics derived from model outputs were generated at the landscape scale and for six case-study watersheds. At the landscape scale, over a quarter of the million acres set aside for conservation in the B1 scenario would otherwise be converted to agriculture in the A2 scenario, where temperatures increase by up to 4.5 °C compared to 1.3 °C in the B1 scenario

  13. OBEST: The Object-Based Event Scenario Tree Methodology

    SciTech Connect

    WYSS, GREGORY D.; DURAN, FELICIA A.

    2001-03-01

    Event tree analysis and Monte Carlo-based discrete event simulation have been used in risk assessment studies for many years. This report details how features of these two methods can be combined with concepts from object-oriented analysis to develop a new risk assessment methodology with some of the best features of each. The resultant Object-Based Event Scenarios Tree (OBEST) methodology enables an analyst to rapidly construct realistic models for scenarios for which an a priori discovery of event ordering is either cumbersome or impossible (especially those that exhibit inconsistent or variable event ordering, which are difficult to represent in an event tree analysis). Each scenario produced by OBEST is automatically associated with a likelihood estimate because probabilistic branching is integral to the object model definition. The OBEST method uses a recursive algorithm to solve the object model and identify all possible scenarios and their associated probabilities. Since scenario likelihoods are developed directly by the solution algorithm, they need not be computed by statistical inference based on Monte Carlo observations (as required by some discrete event simulation methods). Thus, OBEST is not only much more computationally efficient than these simulation methods, but it also discovers scenarios that have extremely low probabilities as a natural analytical result--scenarios that would likely be missed by a Monte Carlo-based method. This report documents the OBEST methodology, the demonstration software that implements it, and provides example OBEST models for several different application domains, including interactions among failing interdependent infrastructure systems, circuit analysis for fire risk evaluation in nuclear power plants, and aviation safety studies.

  14. Rare Autosomal Recessive Cardiac Valvular Form of Ehlers-Danlos Syndrome Results from Mutations in the COL1A2 Gene That Activate the Nonsense-Mediated RNA Decay Pathway

    PubMed Central

    Schwarze, Ulrike; Hata, Ryu-Ichiro; McKusick, Victor A.; Shinkai, Hiroshi; Hoyme, H. Eugene; Pyeritz, Reed E.; Byers, Peter H.

    2004-01-01

    Splice site mutations in the COL1A2 gene of type I collagen can give rise to forms of Ehlers-Danlos syndrome (EDS) because of partial or complete skipping of exon 6, as well as to mild, moderate, or lethal forms of osteogenesis imperfecta as a consequence of skipping of other exons. We identified three unrelated individuals with a rare recessively inherited form of EDS (characterized by joint hypermobility, skin hyperextensibility, and cardiac valvular defects); in two of them, COL1A2 messenger RNA (mRNA) instability results from compound heterozygosity for splice site mutations in the COL1A2 gene, and, in the third, it results from homozygosity for a nonsense codon. The splice site mutations led to use of cryptic splice donor sites, creation of a downstream premature termination codon, and extremely unstable mRNA. In the wild-type allele, the two introns (IVS11 and IVS24) in which these mutations occurred were usually spliced slowly in relation to their respective immediate upstream introns. In the mutant alleles, the upstream intron was removed, so that exon skipping could not occur. In the context of the mutation in IVS24, computer-generated folding of a short stretch of mRNA surrounding the mutation site demonstrated realignment of the relationships between the donor and acceptor sites that could facilitate use of a cryptic donor site. These findings suggest that the order of intron removal is an important variable in prediction of mutation outcome at splice sites and that folding of the nascent mRNA could be one element that contributes to determination of order of splicing. The complete absence of proα2(I) chains has the surprising effect of producing cardiac valvular disease without bone involvement. PMID:15077201

  15. Overview of EMF 22 U.S. Transition Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Fawcett, Allen A.; Calvin, Katherine V.; De La Chesnaye, Francisco; Reilly, J. M.; Weyant, John

    2010-01-01

    The Energy Modeling Forum 22 study included a set of U.S. transition scenarios designed to bracket a range of potential U.S. climate policy goals. Models from the six teams that participated in this part of the study include models that have been prominently involved in analyzing proposed U.S. climate legislation, as well as models that have been involved in the Climate Change Science Program and other parts of this EMF 22 study. This paper presents an overview of the results from the U.S. transition scenarios, and provides insights into the comparison of results from the participating models.

  16. Beyond eruptive scenarios: assessing tephra fallout hazard from Neapolitan volcanoes

    PubMed Central

    Sandri, Laura; Costa, Antonio; Selva, Jacopo; Tonini, Roberto; Macedonio, Giovanni; Folch, Arnau; Sulpizio, Roberto

    2016-01-01

    Assessment of volcanic hazards is necessary for risk mitigation. Typically, hazard assessment is based on one or a few, subjectively chosen representative eruptive scenarios, which use a specific combination of eruptive sizes and intensities to represent a particular size class of eruption. While such eruptive scenarios use a range of representative members to capture a range of eruptive sizes and intensities in order to reflect a wider size class, a scenario approach neglects to account for the intrinsic variability of volcanic eruptions, and implicitly assumes that inter-class size variability (i.e. size difference between different eruptive size classes) dominates over intra-class size variability (i.e. size difference within an eruptive size class), the latter of which is treated as negligible. So far, no quantitative study has been undertaken to verify such an assumption. Here, we adopt a novel Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA) strategy, which accounts for intrinsic eruptive variabilities, to quantify the tephra fallout hazard in the Campania area. We compare the results of the new probabilistic approach with the classical scenario approach. The results allow for determining whether a simplified scenario approach can be considered valid, and for quantifying the bias which arises when full variability is not accounted for. PMID:27067389

  17. Beyond eruptive scenarios: assessing tephra fallout hazard from Neapolitan volcanoes.

    PubMed

    Sandri, Laura; Costa, Antonio; Selva, Jacopo; Tonini, Roberto; Macedonio, Giovanni; Folch, Arnau; Sulpizio, Roberto

    2016-01-01

    Assessment of volcanic hazards is necessary for risk mitigation. Typically, hazard assessment is based on one or a few, subjectively chosen representative eruptive scenarios, which use a specific combination of eruptive sizes and intensities to represent a particular size class of eruption. While such eruptive scenarios use a range of representative members to capture a range of eruptive sizes and intensities in order to reflect a wider size class, a scenario approach neglects to account for the intrinsic variability of volcanic eruptions, and implicitly assumes that inter-class size variability (i.e. size difference between different eruptive size classes) dominates over intra-class size variability (i.e. size difference within an eruptive size class), the latter of which is treated as negligible. So far, no quantitative study has been undertaken to verify such an assumption. Here, we adopt a novel Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA) strategy, which accounts for intrinsic eruptive variabilities, to quantify the tephra fallout hazard in the Campania area. We compare the results of the new probabilistic approach with the classical scenario approach. The results allow for determining whether a simplified scenario approach can be considered valid, and for quantifying the bias which arises when full variability is not accounted for. PMID:27067389

  18. Beyond eruptive scenarios: assessing tephra fallout hazard from Neapolitan volcanoes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sandri, Laura; Costa, Antonio; Selva, Jacopo; Tonini, Roberto; Macedonio, Giovanni; Folch, Arnau; Sulpizio, Roberto

    2016-04-01

    Assessment of volcanic hazards is necessary for risk mitigation. Typically, hazard assessment is based on one or a few, subjectively chosen representative eruptive scenarios, which use a specific combination of eruptive sizes and intensities to represent a particular size class of eruption. While such eruptive scenarios use a range of representative members to capture a range of eruptive sizes and intensities in order to reflect a wider size class, a scenario approach neglects to account for the intrinsic variability of volcanic eruptions, and implicitly assumes that inter-class size variability (i.e. size difference between different eruptive size classes) dominates over intra-class size variability (i.e. size difference within an eruptive size class), the latter of which is treated as negligible. So far, no quantitative study has been undertaken to verify such an assumption. Here, we adopt a novel Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA) strategy, which accounts for intrinsic eruptive variabilities, to quantify the tephra fallout hazard in the Campania area. We compare the results of the new probabilistic approach with the classical scenario approach. The results allow for determining whether a simplified scenario approach can be considered valid, and for quantifying the bias which arises when full variability is not accounted for.

  19. Molecular Diagnostic Analysis of Outbreak Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morsink, M. C.; Dekter, H. E.; Dirks-Mulder, A.; van Leeuwen, W. B.

    2012-01-01

    In the current laboratory assignment, technical aspects of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) are integrated in the context of six different bacterial outbreak scenarios. The "Enterobacterial Repetitive Intergenic Consensus Sequence" (ERIC) PCR was used to analyze different outbreak scenarios. First, groups of 2-4 students determined optimal…

  20. Evaluation Framework for Dependable Mobile Learning Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bensassi, Manel; Laroussi, Mona

    2014-01-01

    The goal of the dependability analysis is to predict inconsistencies and to reveal ambiguities and incompleteness in the designed learning scenario. Evaluation, in traditional learning design, is generally planned after the execution of the scenario. In mobile learning, this stage becomes too difficult and expensive to apply due to the complexity…

  1. Architectures for Developing Multiuser, Immersive Learning Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nadolski, Rob J.; Hummel, Hans G. K.; Slootmaker, Aad; van der Vegt, Wim

    2012-01-01

    Multiuser immersive learning scenarios hold strong potential for lifelong learning as they can support the acquisition of higher order skills in an effective, efficient, and attractive way. Existing virtual worlds, game development platforms, and game engines only partly cater for the proliferation of such learning scenarios as they are often…

  2. Writing clinical scenarios for clinical science questions.

    PubMed

    Smith, Phil Em; Mucklow, John C

    2016-04-01

    Written knowledge assessments for physicians in training typically involve multiple-choice questions that use a clinical scenario in a single-best-answer format. The Royal College of Physicians Part 1 MRCP(UK) examination includes basic sciences themes that are challenging to assess through a clinical scenario. A realistic clinical setting based on everyday clinical practice and integral to the question is the clearest demonstration that the knowledge being assessed is clinically relevant. However, without special attention to detail, the scenario in a clinical science question can appear redundant or artificial. Reading unnecessary material frustrates candidates and threatens the reputation of the assessment. In this paper we discuss why a clinical scenario is important for basic science questions and offer advice on setting realistic and plausible clinical scenarios for such questions. PMID:27037383

  3. Aerosol effect on climate extremes in Europe under different future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sillmann, J.; Pozzoli, L.; Vignati, E.; Kloster, S.; Feichter, J.

    2013-05-01

    This study investigates changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events under different future scenarios of anthropogenic aerosol emissions (i.e., SO2 and black and organic carbon) simulated with an aerosol-climate model (ECHAM5-HAM) with focus on Europe. The simulations include a maximum feasible aerosol reduction (MFR) scenario and a current legislation emission (CLEmod) scenario where Europe implements the MFR scenario, but the rest of the world follows the current legislation scenario and a greenhouse gas scenario. The strongest changes relative to the year 2000 are projected for the MFR scenario, in which the global aerosol reduction greatly enforces the general warming effect due to greenhouse gases and results in significant increases of temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe. Regional warming effects can also be identified from aerosol reductions under the CLEmodscenario. This becomes most obvious in the increase of the hottest summer daytime temperatures in Northern Europe.

  4. New cosmic accelerating scenario without dark energy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lima, J. A. S.; Basilakos, S.; Costa, F. E. M.

    2012-11-01

    We propose an alternative, nonsingular, cosmic scenario based on gravitationally induced particle production. The model is an attempt to evade the coincidence and cosmological constant problems of the standard model (ΛCDM) and also to connect the early and late time accelerating stages of the Universe. Our space-time emerges from a pure initial de Sitter stage thereby providing a natural solution to the horizon problem. Subsequently, due to an instability provoked by the production of massless particles, the Universe evolves smoothly to the standard radiation dominated era thereby ending the production of radiation as required by the conformal invariance. Next, the radiation becomes subdominant with the Universe entering in the cold dark matter dominated era. Finally, the negative pressure associated with the creation of cold dark matter (CCDM model) particles accelerates the expansion and drives the Universe to a final de Sitter stage. The late time cosmic expansion history of the CCDM model is exactly like in the standard ΛCDM model; however, there is no dark energy. The model evolves between two limiting (early and late time) de Sitter regimes. All the stages are also discussed in terms of a scalar field description. This complete scenario is fully determined by two extreme energy densities, or equivalently, the associated de Sitter Hubble scales connected by ρI/ρf=(HI/Hf)2˜10122, a result that has no correlation with the cosmological constant problem. We also study the linear growth of matter perturbations at the final accelerating stage. It is found that the CCDM growth index can be written as a function of the Λ growth index, γΛ≃6/11. In this framework, we also compare the observed growth rate of clustering with that predicted by the current CCDM model. Performing a χ2 statistical test we show that the CCDM model provides growth rates that match sufficiently well with the observed growth rate of structure.

  5. Soft Selective Sweeps in Complex Demographic Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Wilson, Benjamin A.; Petrov, Dmitri A.; Messer, Philipp W.

    2014-01-01

    Adaptation from de novo mutation can produce so-called soft selective sweeps, where adaptive alleles of independent mutational origin sweep through the population at the same time. Population genetic theory predicts that such soft sweeps should be likely if the product of the population size and the mutation rate toward the adaptive allele is sufficiently large, such that multiple adaptive mutations can establish before one has reached fixation; however, it remains unclear how demographic processes affect the probability of observing soft sweeps. Here we extend the theory of soft selective sweeps to realistic demographic scenarios that allow for changes in population size over time. We first show that population bottlenecks can lead to the removal of all but one adaptive lineage from an initially soft selective sweep. The parameter regime under which such “hardening” of soft selective sweeps is likely is determined by a simple heuristic condition. We further develop a generalized analytical framework, based on an extension of the coalescent process, for calculating the probability of soft sweeps under arbitrary demographic scenarios. Two important limits emerge within this analytical framework: In the limit where population-size fluctuations are fast compared to the duration of the sweep, the likelihood of soft sweeps is determined by the harmonic mean of the variance effective population size estimated over the duration of the sweep; in the opposing slow fluctuation limit, the likelihood of soft sweeps is determined by the instantaneous variance effective population size at the onset of the sweep. We show that as a consequence of this finding the probability of observing soft sweeps becomes a function of the strength of selection. Specifically, in species with sharply fluctuating population size, strong selection is more likely to produce soft sweeps than weak selection. Our results highlight the importance of accurate demographic estimates over short

  6. Radical prostatectomy and adjuvant radioactive gold seed placement: Results of treatment at 5 and 10 years for clinical stages A2, B1 and B2 cancer of the prostate

    SciTech Connect

    Kwon, E.D.; Loening, S.A.; Hawtrey, C.E. )

    1991-03-01

    Between 1977 and 1988, 131 patients with adenocarcinoma of the prostate underwent combined radical prostatectomy and intraoperative radioactive gold seed placement. Of these 131 patients 80 were clinically assessed as having stage A2 (12), B1 (43) or B2 (25) cancer and they are the subject of this review. The average dose of radioactivity administered to each patient was 96.6 mCi, and mean followup was 65 months (median 64 months). No patient in this series received any other form of adjuvant therapy until disease recurrence was demonstrated. Local recurrences were observed in 2 patients (2.5%) in this series while distant recurrences were observed in 10 (12.5%). Cancer specific survival free of disease at 5 years was 100% for clinical stage A2, 91% for B1 and 75% for B2 cancers. The 10-year survival free of disease was 100% for clinical stage A2, 82% for B1 and 68% for B2 cancers. Covariants of clinical stage and seminal vesicle involvement influenced survival free of disease in a statistically significant manner (p less than 0.05) while pathological stage and degree of tumor differentiation did not. Mild to severe complications were observed in 12 patients (15%). Intraoperative placement of radioactive gold seeds into unresected pelvic tissues surrounding the site of prostatectomy offers a theoretical advantage in treatment by delivering tumoricidal levels of irradiation to residual foci of cancer not appreciated at the time of surgery. Our results suggest that increases in cancer specific survival free of disease over that previously reported for prostatectomy alone may be achieved through this combined treatment regimen. Furthermore, it is our opinion that therapeutic gains can be achieved without the attendant increases in morbidity and treatment delay often associated with adjuvant external beam radiotherapy.

  7. A compound heterozygote SLC26A2 mutation resulting in robin sequence, mild limbs shortness, accelerated carpal ossification, and multiple epiphysial dysplasia in two Brazilian sisters. A new intermediate phenotype between diastrophic dysplasia and recessive multiple epiphyseal dysplasia.

    PubMed

    Zechi-Ceide, Roseli Maria; Moura, Priscila Padilha; Raskin, Salmo; Richieri-Costa, Antonio; Guion-Almeida, Maria Leine

    2013-08-01

    Mutations in solute carrier family 26 (sulfate transporter), member 2 (SLC26A2) gene result in a spectrum of autosomal recessive chondrodysplasias that range from the mildest recessive form of multiple epiphysial dysplasia (rMED) through the most common diastrophic dysplasia (DTD) to lethal atelosteogenesis type II and achondrogenesis IB. The clinical variability has been ascribed to quantitative effect of mutations of the sulfate transporter activity. Here we describe two Brazilian sisters, born to healthy and non consanguineous parents, with Robin sequence, mild shortening of upper and lower limbs, brachymetacarpalia/tarsalia, additional and accelerated carpal ossification, marked genu valgum, and multiple epiphysial dysplasia. This phenotype was intermediate between DTD and rMED, and both girls have a compound heterozygous mutations for the SLC26A2, a Finnish founder mutation (c.-26 + 2T>C), and R279W. This combination of mutations has been observed in individuals with different phenotypes, including DTD, DTD variant, and rMED. The distinct phenotype of our cases reinforces the hypothesis that other factors may be influencing the phenotype as previously suggested. PMID:23840040

  8. Addressing an Uncertain Future Using Scenario Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Marnay, Chris

    2006-12-15

    The Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) has had a longstanding goal of introducing uncertainty into the analysis it routinely conducts in compliance with the Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) and for strategic management purposes. The need to introduce some treatment of uncertainty arises both because it would be good general management practice, and because intuitively many of the technologies under development by EERE have a considerable advantage in an uncertain world. For example, an expected kWh output from a wind generator in a future year, which is not exposed to volatile and unpredictable fuel prices, should be truly worth more than an equivalent kWh from an alternative fossil fuel fired technology. Indeed, analysts have attempted to measure this value by comparing the prices observed in fixed-price natural gas contracts compared to ones in which buyers are exposed to market prices (see Bolinger, Wiser, and Golove and (2004)). In addition to the routine reasons for exploring uncertainty given above, the history of energy markets appears to have exhibited infrequent, but troubling, regime shifts, i.e., historic turning points at which the center of gravity or fundamental nature of the system appears to have abruptly shifted. Figure 1 below shows an estimate of how the history of natural gas fired generating costs has evolved over the last three decades. The costs shown incorporate both the well-head gas price and an estimate of how improving generation technology has gradually tended to lower costs. The purpose of this paper is to explore scenario analysis as a method for introducing uncertainty into EERE's forecasting in a manner consistent with the preceding observation. The two questions are how could it be done, and what is its academic basis, if any. Despite the interest in uncertainty methods, applying them poses some major hurdles because of the heavy reliance of EERE on forecasting tools that are deterministic in

  9. Confusion and its dynamics during device comprehension with breakdown scenarios.

    PubMed

    D'Mello, Sidney; Graesser, Art

    2014-09-01

    The incidence and dynamics of confusion during complex learning and problem solving were investigated in an experiment where participants first read illustrated texts on everyday devices (e.g., an electric bell) followed by breakdown scenarios reflecting device malfunctions (e.g., "When a person rang the bell there was a short ding and then no sound was heard"). The breakdown scenarios were expected to trigger impasses and put participants in a state of cognitive disequilibrium where they would experience confusion and engage in effortful confusion resolution activities in order to restore equilibrium. The results confirmed that participants reported more confusion when presented with the breakdown scenarios compared to control scenarios that involved focusing on important device components in the absence of malfunctions. A second-by-second analysis of the dynamics of confusion yielded two characteristic trajectories that distinguished participants who partially resolved their confusion from those who remained confused. Participants who were successful in partial confusion resolution while processing the breakdowns outperformed their counterparts on knowledge assessments after controlling for scholastic aptitude, engagement, and frustration. This effect was amplified for those who were highly confused by the breakdowns. There was no direct breakdown vs. control effect on learning, but being actively engaged and partially resolving confusion during breakdown processing were positive predictors of increased learning with the breakdown compared to control scenarios. Implications of our findings for theories that highlight the role of impasses, cognitive disequilibrium, and confusion to learning are discussed. PMID:24973629

  10. Expression proteomics of UPF1 knockdown in HeLa cells reveals autoregulation of hnRNP A2/B1 mediated by alternative splicing resulting in nonsense-mediated mRNA decay

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background In addition to acting as an RNA quality control pathway, nonsense-mediated mRNA decay (NMD) plays roles in regulating normal gene expression. In particular, the extent to which alternative splicing is coupled to NMD and the roles of NMD in regulating uORF containing transcripts have been a matter of debate. Results In order to achieve a greater understanding of NMD regulated gene expression we used 2D-DiGE proteomics technology to examine the changes in protein expression induced in HeLa cells by UPF1 knockdown. QPCR based validation of the corresponding mRNAs, in response to both UPF1 knockdown and cycloheximide treatment, identified 17 bona fide NMD targets. Most of these were associated with bioinformatically predicted NMD activating features, predominantly upstream open reading frames (uORFs). Strikingly, however, the majority of transcripts up-regulated by UPF1 knockdown were either insensitive to, or even down-regulated by, cycloheximide treatment. Furthermore, the mRNA abundance of several down-regulated proteins failed to change upon UPF1 knockdown, indicating that UPF1's role in regulating mRNA and protein abundance is more complex than previously appreciated. Among the bona fide NMD targets, we identified a highly conserved AS-NMD event within the 3' UTR of the HNRNPA2B1 gene. Overexpression of GFP tagged hnRNP A2 resulted in a decrease in endogenous hnRNP A2 and B1 mRNA with a concurrent increase in the NMD sensitive isoforms. Conclusions Despite the large number of changes in protein expression upon UPF1 knockdown, a relatively small fraction of them can be directly attributed to the action of NMD on the corresponding mRNA. From amongst these we have identified a conserved AS-NMD event within HNRNPA2B1 that appears to mediate autoregulation of HNRNPA2B1 expression levels. PMID:20946641

  11. A Methodology For Flood Vulnerability Analysis In Complex Flood Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Figueiredo, R.; Martina, M. L. V.; Dottori, F.

    2015-12-01

    Nowadays, flood risk management is gaining importance in order to mitigate and prevent flood disasters, and consequently the analysis of flood vulnerability is becoming a key research topic. In this paper, we propose a methodology for large-scale analysis of flood vulnerability. The methodology is based on a GIS-based index, which considers local topography, terrain roughness and basic information about the flood scenario to reproduce the diffusive behaviour of floodplain flow. The methodology synthetizes the spatial distribution of index values into maps and curves, used to represent the vulnerability in the area of interest. Its application allows for considering different levels of complexity of flood scenarios, from localized flood defence failures to complex hazard scenarios involving river reaches. The components of the methodology are applied and tested in two floodplain areas in Northern Italy recently affected by floods. The results show that the methodology can provide an original and valuable insight of flood vulnerability variables and processes.

  12. A Scenario Generation Method for Wind Power Ramp Events Forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Cui, Ming-Jian; Ke, De-Ping; Sun, Yuan-Zhang; Gan, Di; Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias

    2015-07-03

    Wind power ramp events (WPREs) have received increasing attention in recent years due to their significant impact on the reliability of power grid operations. In this paper, a novel WPRE forecasting method is proposed which is able to estimate the probability distributions of three important properties of the WPREs. To do so, a neural network (NN) is first proposed to model the wind power generation (WPG) as a stochastic process so that a number of scenarios of the future WPG can be generated (or predicted). Each possible scenario of the future WPG generated in this manner contains the ramping information, and the distributions of the designated WPRE properties can be stochastically derived based on the possible scenarios. Actual data from a wind power plant in the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) was selected for testing the proposed ramp forecasting method. Results showed that the proposed method effectively forecasted the probability of ramp events.

  13. Simulation of Lunar Surface Communications Network Exploration Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Linsky, Thomas W.; Bhasin, Kul B.; White, Alex; Palangala, Srihari

    2006-01-01

    Simulations and modeling of surface-based communications networks provides a rapid and cost effective means of requirement analysis, protocol assessments, and tradeoff studies. Robust testing in especially important for exploration systems, where the cost of deployment is high and systems cannot be easily replaced or repaired. However, simulation of the envisioned exploration networks cannot be achieved using commercial off the shelf network simulation software. Models for the nonstandard, non-COTS protocols used aboard space systems are not readily available. This paper will address the simulation of realistic scenarios representative of the activities which will take place on the surface of the Moon, including selection of candidate network architectures, and the development of an integrated simulation tool using OPNET modeler capable of faithfully modeling those communications scenarios in the variable delay, dynamic surface environments. Scenarios for exploration missions, OPNET development, limitations, and simulations results will be provided and discussed.

  14. Integrated Analysis of Market Transformation Scenarios with HyTrans

    SciTech Connect

    Greene, David L; Leiby, Paul Newsome; Bowman, David Charles

    2007-06-01

    This report presents alternative visions of the transition of light-duty vehicle transportation in the United States from petroleum to hydrogen power. It is a supporting document to the U.S. Department of Energy's Summary Report, "Analysis of the Transition to a Hydrogen Economy and the Potential Hydrogen Infrastructure Requirements" (U.S. DOE, 2007). Three alternative early transition scenarios were analyzed using a market simulation model called HyTrans. The HyTrans model simultaneously represents the behavior of fuel suppliers, vehicle manufacturers and consumers, explicitly recognizing the importance of fuel availability and the diversity of vehicle choices to consumers, and dependence of fuel supply on the existence of market demand. Competitive market outcomes are simulated by means of non-linear optimization of social surplus through the year 2050. The three scenarios specify different rates and geographical distributions of market penetration for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles from 2012 through 2025. Scenario 1 leads to 2 million vehicles on U.S. roads by 2025, while Scenarios 2 and 3 result in 5 million and 10 million FCVs in use by 2025, respectively. The HyTrans model "costs out" the transition scenarios and alternative policies for achieving them. It then tests whether the scenarios, together with the achievement of the DOE's technology goals for fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen infrastructure technologies could lead to a sustainable transition to hydrogen powered transportation. Given the achievement of DOE's ambitious technology goals, all three scenarios appear to lead to a sustainable transition to hydrogen. In the absence of early transition deployment effort, no transition is likely to begin before 2045. The cumulative costs of the transition scenarios to the government range from $8 billion to $45 billion, depending on the scenario, the policies adopted and the degree of cost-sharing with industry. In the absence of carbon constraining policies, the

  15. Interactive specification acquisition via scenarios: A proposal

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hall, Robert J.

    1992-01-01

    Some reactive systems are most naturally specified by giving large collections of behavior scenarios. These collections not only specify the behavior of the system, but also provide good test suites for validating the implemented system. Due to the complexity of the systems and the number of scenarios, however, it appears that automated assistance is necessary to make this software development process workable. Interactive Specification Acquisition Tool (ISAT) is a proposed interactive system for supporting the acquisition and maintenance of a formal system specification from scenarios, as well as automatic synthesis of control code and automated test generation. This paper discusses the background, motivation, proposed functions, and implementation status of ISAT.

  16. Analysis of advanced european nuclear fuel cycle scenarios including transmutation and economical estimates

    SciTech Connect

    Merino Rodriguez, I.; Alvarez-Velarde, F.; Martin-Fuertes, F.

    2013-07-01

    In this work the transition from the existing Light Water Reactors (LWR) to the advanced reactors is analyzed, including Generation III+ reactors in a European framework. Four European fuel cycle scenarios involving transmutation options have been addressed. The first scenario (i.e., reference) is the current fleet using LWR technology and open fuel cycle. The second scenario assumes a full replacement of the initial fleet with Fast Reactors (FR) burning U-Pu MOX fuel. The third scenario is a modification of the second one introducing Minor Actinide (MA) transmutation in a fraction of the FR fleet. Finally, in the fourth scenario, the LWR fleet is replaced using FR with MOX fuel as well as Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS) for MA transmutation. All scenarios consider an intermediate period of GEN-III+ LWR deployment and they extend for a period of 200 years looking for equilibrium mass flows. The simulations were made using the TR-EVOL code, a tool for fuel cycle studies developed by CIEMAT. The results reveal that all scenarios are feasible according to nuclear resources demand (U and Pu). Concerning to no transmutation cases, the second scenario reduces considerably the Pu inventory in repositories compared to the reference scenario, although the MA inventory increases. The transmutation scenarios show that elimination of the LWR MA legacy requires on one hand a maximum of 33% fraction (i.e., a peak value of 26 FR units) of the FR fleet dedicated to transmutation (MA in MOX fuel, homogeneous transmutation). On the other hand a maximum number of ADS plants accounting for 5% of electricity generation are predicted in the fourth scenario (i.e., 35 ADS units). Regarding the economic analysis, the estimations show an increase of LCOE (Levelized cost of electricity) - averaged over the whole period - with respect to the reference scenario of 21% and 29% for FR and FR with transmutation scenarios respectively, and 34% for the fourth scenario. (authors)

  17. Scenario-Based Spoken Interaction with Virtual Agents

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morton, Hazel; Jack, Mervyn A.

    2005-01-01

    This paper describes a CALL approach which integrates software for speaker independent continuous speech recognition with embodied virtual agents and virtual worlds to create an immersive environment in which learners can converse in the target language in contextualised scenarios. The result is a self-access learning package: SPELL (Spoken…

  18. Measuring Workload Differences Between Short-term Memory and Long-term Memory Scenarios in a Simulated Flight Environment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Berg, S. L.; Sheridan, T. B.

    1984-01-01

    Four highly experienced Air Force pilots each flew four simulated flight scenarios. Two scenarios required a great deal of aircraft maneuvering. The other two scenarios involved less maneuvering, but required remembering a number of items. All scenarios were designed to be equaly challenging. Pilot's Subjective Ratings for Activity-level, Complexity, Difficulty, Stress, and Workload were higher for the manuevering scenarios than the memory scenarios. At a moderate workload level, keeping the pilots active resulted in better aircraft control. When required to monitor and remember items, aircraft control tended to decrease. Pilots tended to weigh information about the spatial positioning and performance of their aircraft more heavily than other items.

  19. FUTURE SCENARIOS OF CHANGE IN WILDLIFE HABITAT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Studies in Pennsylvania, Iowa, California, and Oregon show varying losses of terrestrial wildlife habitat in scenarios based on different assumptions about future human land use patterns. Retrospective estimates of losses of habitat since Euro-American settlement in several stud...

  20. Augmented standard model and the simplest scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Tai Tsun; Wu, Sau Lan

    2015-11-01

    The experimental discovery of the Higgs particle in 2012 by the ATLAS Collaboration and the CMS Collaboration at CERN ushers in a new era of particle physics. On the basis of these data, scalar quarks and scalar leptons are added to each generation of quarks and leptons. The resulting augmented standard model has fermion-boson symmetry for each of three generations, but only one Higgs doublet giving masses to all the elementary particles. A specific special case, the simplest scenario, is studied in detail. In this case, there are twenty six quadratic divergences, and all these divergences are cancelled provided that one single relation between the masses is satisfied. This mass relation contains a great deal of information, and in particular determines the masses of all the right-handed scalar quarks and scalar leptons, while gives relations for the masses of the left-handed ones. An alternative procedure is also given with a different starting point and less reliance on the experimental data. The result is of course the same.

  1. Report on a workshop on transportation-accident scenarios involving spent fuel

    SciTech Connect

    Wilmot, E.L.; McClure, J.D.; Luna, R.E.

    1981-02-01

    Much confusion and skepticism resulted from the scenarios for transportation accidents involving spent fuel that have been presented in environmental impact statements because the supporting assumptions and conclusions from the scenarios did not always appear to be consistent. As a result, the Transportation Technology Center gathered a group whose participants were experts in disciplines related to the transport of spent fuel to consider the scenarios. The group made a number of recommendations about scenario development and about areas in need of further study. This report documents the discussions held and the recommendations and conclusions of the group.

  2. Validation of Variations in Mental Workload as a Function of Scenario Difficulty: Traffic Density and Visibility

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2003-01-01

    Fluctuations in mental workload can be expected as a function of traffic density and visibility. The aim of the current investigation was to establish simulation scenarios that differed in attentional processing requirements. Four scenarios were created and tested representing two levels of traffic density (urban versus freeway) and two levels of visibility (clear versus foggy). An array of mental workload assessment measures were used to exam changes in attentional processing requirements in each scenario. The assessment array consisted of physiological (P300 amplitude and latency) and behavioral (RT and accuracy) indices. Preliminary results indicate that workload differs significantly as a function of traffic density in rural versus freeway scenarios. Workload also differs significantly in rural versus freeway scenarios as a function of visibility as observed by a significant interaction between the two variables of interest. Results are discussed in terms of their application for validating the difficulty level of simulation scenarios as a format for examining mental workload.

  3. Projection of snow cover changes over China under RCP scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ji, Z.; Kang, S.

    2012-12-01

    Snow cover changes in the middle (2040-2059) and end (2080-2099) of the 21st century over China were investigated with a regional climate model, nested within the global model BCC_CSM1.1. The simulations had been conducted for the period of 1950 to 2099 under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Results show that the model perform well in representing contemporary (1986-2005) spatial distributions of snow cover days (SCDs) and snow water equivalent (SWE). However, some differences between observation and simulation were detected. Under the RCP4.5 scenarios, SCDs are shortened by 10~20 and 20~40 days during the middle and end of the 21st century, respectively. Whereas simulated SWE is lowered by 0.1~10 mm in most areas over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). On the other hand, the spatial distributions of SWE are reversed between the middle and end terms in the northeast China. Furthermore, compared with the changes of RCP4.5 scenario, SCDs are reduced by 5~20 days in the middle period under RCP8.5 scenario with even larger decreasing amplitude in the end term. SWE was lowered by 0.1~2.5 mm in most areas except the northeast of China in middle term under RCP8.5 scenario. The great center of SCDs and SWE changes are always located over TP. The regional mean of SCDs and SWE for the TP and for China display a declining trend from 2006 to 2099 with more pronounced changes in the TP than in China as a whole. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the changes are enhanced compared to those under RCP4.5.

  4. Projection of snow cover changes over China under RCP scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ji, Zhenming; Kang, Shichang

    2013-08-01

    Snow cover changes in the middle (2040-2059) and end (2080-2099) of the twenty-first century over China were investigated with a regional climate model, nested within the global model BCC_CSM1.1. The simulations had been conducted for the period of 1950-2099 under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Results show that the model perform well in representing contemporary (1986-2005) spatial distributions of snow cover days (SCDs) and snow water equivalent (SWE). However, some differences between observation and simulation were detected. Under the RCP4.5 scenarios, SCDs are shortened by 10-20 and 20-40 days during the middle and end of the twenty-first century, respectively. Whereas simulated SWE is lowered by 0.1-10 mm in most areas over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). On the other hand, the spatial distributions of SWE are reversed between the middle and end terms in the northeast China. Furthermore, compared with the changes of RCP4.5 scenario, SCDs are reduced by 5-20 days in the middle period under RCP8.5 scenario with even larger decreasing amplitude in the end term. SWE was lowered by 0.1-2.5 mm in most areas except the northeast of China in middle term under RCP8.5 scenario. The great center of SCDs and SWE changes are always located over TP. The regional mean of SCDs and SWE for the TP and for China display a declining trend from 2006 to 2099 with more pronounced changes in the TP than in China as a whole. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the changes are enhanced compared to those under RCP4.5.

  5. Polyethylene recycling: Waste policy scenario analysis for the EU-27.

    PubMed

    Andreoni, Valeria; Saveyn, Hans G M; Eder, Peter

    2015-08-01

    This paper quantifies the main impacts that the adoption of the best recycling practices together with a reduction in the consumption of single-use plastic bags and the adoption of a kerbside collection system could have on the 27 Member States of the EU. The main consequences in terms of employment, waste management costs, emissions and energy use have been quantified for two scenarios of polyethylene (PE) waste production and recycling. That is to say, a "business as usual scenario", where the 2012 performances of PE waste production and recycling are extrapolated to 2020, is compared to a "best practice scenario", where the best available recycling practices are modelled together with the possible adoption of the amended Packaging and Packaging Waste Directive related to the consumption of single-use plastic bags and the implementation of a kerbside collection system. The main results show that socio-economic and environmental benefits can be generated across the EU by the implementation of the best practice scenario. In particular, estimations show a possible reduction of 4.4 million tonnes of non-recycled PE waste, together with a reduction of around €90 million in waste management costs in 2020 for the best practice scenario versus the business as usual scenario. An additional 35,622 jobs are also expected to be created. In environmental terms, the quantity of CO2 equivalent emissions could be reduced by around 1.46 million tonnes and the net energy requirements are expected to increase by 16.5 million GJ as a consequence of the reduction in the energy produced from waste. The main analysis provided in this paper, together with the data and the model presented, can be useful to identify the possible costs and benefits that the implementation of PE waste policies and Directives could generate for the EU. PMID:25976302

  6. Subsistence Exposure Scenarios for Tribal Applications

    PubMed Central

    Harper, Barbara; Harding, Anna; Harris, Stuart; Berger, Patricia

    2014-01-01

    The article provides an overview of methods that can be used to develop exposure scenarios for unique tribal natural resource usage patterns. Exposure scenarios are used to evaluate the degree of environmental contact experienced by people with different patterns of lifestyle activities, such as residence, recreation, or work. in 1994, U.S. President Bill Clinton's Executive Order 12898 recognized that disproportionately high exposures could be incurred by people with traditional subsistence lifestyles because of their more intensive contact with natural resources. Since then, we have developed several tribal exposure scenarios that reflect tribal-specific traditional lifeways. These scenarios are not necessarily intended to capture contemporary resource patterns, but to describe how the resources were used before contamination or degradation, and will be used once again in fully traditional ways after cleanup and restoration. The direct exposure factors for inhalation and soil ingestion rates are the same in each tribal scenario, but the diets are unique to each tribe and its local ecology, natural foods, and traditional practices. Scenarios, in part or in whole, also have other applications, such as developing environmental standards, evaluating disproportionate exposures, developing sampling plans, planning for climate change, or evaluating service flows as part of natural resource damage assessments. PMID:25197207

  7. Evaluation of future precipitation scenario using statistical downscaling model over humid, subhumid, and arid region of Nepal—a case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sigdel, Madan; Ma, Yaoming

    2016-02-01

    Statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was applied in downscaling precipitation in the three climatic regions of Nepal. The study includes the calibration of the SDSM model by using large-scale atmospheric variables encompassing National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data, the validation of the model, and the outputs of downscaled scenarios A2 and B2 of the HadCM3 model for the future. The average R 2 value during validation period was 0.84, indicating the good applicability of SDSM for simulating precipitation. Under both scenarios A2 and B2, during the prediction period of 2010-2099, the change of annual mean precipitation in the three climatic regions would present a tendency of surplus of precipitation as compared to the mean values of the base period. On the average for all three climatic regions of Nepal, the annual mean precipitation would increase by about 13.75 % under scenario A2 and increase near about 11.68 % under scenario B2 in the 2050s. The model showed better performance over humid region; moreover, simulated results for the peak monsoon months seem to be overestimated over subhumid and arid regions.

  8. An Exploration of Scenarios to Support Sustainable Land Management Using Integrated Environmental Socio-economic Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fleskens, L.; Nainggolan, D.; Stringer, L. C.

    2014-11-01

    Scenario analysis constitutes a valuable deployment method for scientific models to inform environmental decision-making, particularly for evaluating land degradation mitigation options, which are rarely based on formal analysis. In this paper we demonstrate such an assessment using the PESERA-DESMICE modeling framework with various scenarios for 13 global land degradation hotspots. Starting with an initial assessment representing land degradation and productivity under current conditions, options to combat instances of land degradation are explored by determining: (1) Which technologies are most biophysically appropriate and most financially viable in which locations; we term these the "technology scenarios"; (2) how policy instruments such as subsidies influence upfront investment requirements and financial viability and how they lead to reduced levels of land degradation; we term these the "policy scenarios"; and (3) how technology adoption affects development issues such as food production and livelihoods; we term these the "global scenarios". Technology scenarios help choose the best technology for a given area in biophysical and financial terms, thereby outlining where policy support may be needed to promote adoption; policy scenarios assess whether a policy alternative leads to a greater extent of technology adoption; while global scenarios demonstrate how implementing technologies may serve wider sustainable development goals. Scenarios are applied to assess spatial variation within study sites as well as to compare across different sites. Our results show significant scope to combat land degradation and raise agricultural productivity at moderate cost. We conclude that scenario assessment can provide informative input to multi-level land management decision-making processes.

  9. Climate mitigation scenarios of drained peat soils

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kasimir Klemedtsson, Åsa; Coria, Jessica; He, Hongxing; Liu, Xiangping; Nordén, Anna

    2014-05-01

    The national inventory reports (NIR) submitted to the UNFCCC show Sweden - which as many other countries has wetlands where parts have been drained for agriculture and forestry purposes, - to annually emit 12 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalents, which is more GHG'es than industrial energy use release in Sweden. Similar conditions can be found in other northern countries, having cool and wet conditions, naturally promoting peat accumulation, and where land use management over the last centuries have promoted draining activities. These drained peatland, though covering only 2% of the land area, have emissions corresponding to 20% of the total reported NIR emissions. This substantial emission contribution, however, is hidden within the Land Use Land Use Change and Forestry sector (LULUCF) where the forest Carbon uptake is even larger, which causes the peat soil emissions become invisible. The only drained soil emission accounted in the Swedish Kyoto reporting is the N2O emission from agricultural drained organic soils of the size 0.5 million tonnes CO2e yr-1. This lack of visibility has made incentives for land use change and management neither implemented nor suggested, however with large potential. Rewetting has the potential to decrease soil mineralization, why CO2 and N2O emissions are mitigated. However if the soil becomes very wet CH4 emission will increase together with hampered plant growth. By ecological modeling, using the CoupModel the climate change mitigation potential have been estimated for four different land use scenarios; 1, Drained peat soil with Spruce (business as usual scenario), 2, raised ground water level to 20 cm depth and Willow plantation, 3, raised ground water level to 10 cm depth and Reed Canary Grass, and 4, rewetting to an average water level in the soil surface with recolonizing wetland plants and mosses. We calculate the volume of biomass production per year, peat decomposition, N2O emission together with nitrate and DOC

  10. Impact of explosive eruption scenarios at Vesuvius

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zuccaro, G.; Cacace, F.; Spence, R. J. S.; Baxter, P. J.

    2008-12-01

    scenario are highlighted. The results show the high sensitivity of hazard combinations in time and space distribution and address how to mitigate building vulnerability to subsequent eruptive phenomena [Baxter, P., Spence, R., Zuccaro, G., 2008-this issue. Risk mitigation and emergency measures at Vesuvius]. The first part of the work describes the numerical modelling and the methodology adopted to evaluate the resistance of buildings under the combined action of volcanic phenomena. Those considered here for this multi-hazard approach are limited to the following: earthquakes, pyroclastic flows and ash falls. Because of the lack of a systematic and extensive database of building damages observed after eruptions of such intensity of the past, approaches to this work must take a hybrid form of stochastic and deterministic analyses, taking into account written histories of volcanic eruptions and expertise from field geologists to build up a semi-deterministic model of the possible combinations of the above hazards that are situated both in time and space. Once a range of possible scenarios has been determined, a full stochastic method can be applied to find a sub-set of permutations and combinations of possible effects. This preliminary study of identification of the possible combination of the phenomena, subdividing them into those which are discrete and those which are continuous in time and space, enables consideration the vulnerability functions of the combinations to be feasible. In previous works [Spence, R., Brichieri-Colombi, N., Holdsworth, F., Baxter, P., Zuccaro, G., 2004a. Vesuvius: building vulnerability and human casualty estimation for a pyroclastic flow (25 pages). J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 133, 321-343. ISSN 0377-0273; Spence, R., Zuccaro, G., Petrazzuoli, S., Baxter, P.J., 2004b. The resistance of buildings to pyroclastic flows: theoretical and experimental studies in relation to Vesuvius, ASCE Nat. Hazards Rev. 5, 48-50. ISSN 1527-6988; Spence, R., Kelman

  11. Temperature increase of 21st century mitigation scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Van Vuuren, Detlef; Meinshausen, Malte; Plattner, Gian-Kasper; Joos, Fortunat; Strassmann, Kuno M.; Smith, Steven J.; Wigley, T. M.; Raper, S.; Riahi, Keywan; De La Chesnaye, Francisco; Den Elzen, Michel; Fujino, Junicho; Kejun, Jiang; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Paltsev, S.; Reilly, J. M.

    2008-10-06

    Estimates on 21st century global mean surface temperature increase have generally been based on scenarios that do not include climate policies. Newly developed multi-gas mitigation scenarios now allow the assessment of possible impacts of climate policies on projected warming ranges. By combing emission pathway results from multiple energy-economic models, we show that these mitigation scenarios result in a range of 21st century temperature increase of 0.5 to 4.2°C over 1990 levels as compared to 1.3-7.3 °C for the no-policy cases. About half the range is due to differences in the assumed stringency of the global climate policy and half is due to uncertainty in our understanding of the climate system, specifically, the carbon cycle and climate sensitivity. A minimum warming of about 0.5-2.7°C (avg. 1.3oC) remains for even the most stringent stabilization scenarios analyzed here - highlighting the need for both emission mitigation and adaptation policies.

  12. River flood risk in Jakarta under scenarios of future change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Budiyono, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Tollenaar, D.; Ward, P.

    2015-07-01

    Given the increasing impacts of flooding in Jakarta, methods for assessing current and future flood risk are required. In this paper, we use the Damagescanner-Jakarta risk model to project changes in future river flood risk under scenarios of climate change, land subsidence, and land use change. We estimate current flood risk at USD 143 million p.a. Combining all future scenarios, we simulate a median increase in risk of +263 % by 2030. The single driver with the largest contribution to that increase is land subsidence (+173 %). We simulated the impacts of climate change by combining two scenario of sea level rise with simulations of changes in 1 day extreme precipitation totals from 5 Global Climate Models (GCMs) forced by 4 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The results are highly uncertain; the median change in risk due to climate change alone by 2030 is a decrease by -4 %, but we simulate an increase in risk under 21 of the 40 GCM-RCP-sea level rise combinations. Hence, we developed probabilistic risk scenarios to account for this uncertainty. Finally, we discuss the relevance of the results for flood risk management in Jakarta.

  13. Knowledge sharing in the health scenario

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    The understanding of certain data often requires the collection of similar data from different places to be analysed and interpreted. Interoperability standards and ontologies, are facilitating data interchange around the world. However, beyond the existing networks and advances for data transfer, data sharing protocols to support multilateral agreements are useful to exploit the knowledge of distributed Data Warehouses. The access to a certain data set in a federated Data Warehouse may be constrained by the requirement to deliver another specific data set. When bilateral agreements between two nodes of a network are not enough to solve the constraints for accessing to a certain data set, multilateral agreements for data exchange are needed. We present the implementation of a Multi-Agent System for multilateral exchange agreements of clinical data, and evaluate how those multilateral agreements increase the percentage of data collected by a single node from the total amount of data available in the network. Different strategies to reduce the number of messages needed to achieve an agreement are also considered. The results show that with this collaborative sharing scenario the percentage of data collected dramaticaly improve from bilateral agreements to multilateral ones, up to reach almost all data available in the network. PMID:25471452

  14. Hyperspectral Anomaly Detection in Urban Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rejas Ayuga, J. G.; Martínez Marín, R.; Marchamalo Sacristán, M.; Bonatti, J.; Ojeda, J. C.

    2016-06-01

    We have studied the spectral features of reflectance and emissivity in the pattern recognition of urban materials in several single hyperspectral scenes through a comparative analysis of anomaly detection methods and their relationship with city surfaces with the aim to improve information extraction processes. Spectral ranges of the visible-near infrared (VNIR), shortwave infrared (SWIR) and thermal infrared (TIR) from hyperspectral data cubes of AHS sensor and HyMAP and MASTER of two cities, Alcalá de Henares (Spain) and San José (Costa Rica) respectively, have been used. In this research it is assumed no prior knowledge of the targets, thus, the pixels are automatically separated according to their spectral information, significantly differentiated with respect to a background, either globally for the full scene, or locally by image segmentation. Several experiments on urban scenarios and semi-urban have been designed, analyzing the behaviour of the standard RX anomaly detector and different methods based on subspace, image projection and segmentation-based anomaly detection methods. A new technique for anomaly detection in hyperspectral data called DATB (Detector of Anomalies from Thermal Background) based on dimensionality reduction by projecting targets with unknown spectral signatures to a background calculated from thermal spectrum wavelengths is presented. First results and their consequences in non-supervised classification and extraction information processes are discussed.

  15. Dynamical Scenarios for Chromosome Bi-orientation

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Tongli; Oliveira, Raquel A.; Schmierer, Bernhard; Novák, Béla

    2013-01-01

    Chromosome bi-orientation at the metaphase spindle is essential for precise segregation of the genetic material. The process is error-prone, and error-correction mechanisms exist to switch misaligned chromosomes to the correct, bi-oriented configuration. Here, we analyze several possible dynamical scenarios to explore how cells might achieve correct bi-orientation in an efficient and robust manner. We first illustrate that tension-mediated feedback between the sister kinetochores can give rise to a bistable switch, which allows robust distinction between a loose attachment with low tension and a strong attachment with high tension. However, this mechanism has difficulties in explaining how bi-orientation is initiated starting from unattached kinetochores. We propose four possible mechanisms to overcome this problem (exploiting molecular noise; allowing an efficient attachment of kinetochores already in the absence of tension; a trial-and-error oscillation; and a stochastic bistable switch), and assess their impact on the bi-orientation process. Based on our results and supported by experimental data, we put forward a trial-and-error oscillation and a stochastic bistable switch as two elegant mechanisms with the potential to promote bi-orientation both efficiently and robustly. PMID:23790367

  16. [Environmental management: critical analysis, scenarios and challenges].

    PubMed

    Porto, Marcelo Firpo de Souza; Schütz, Gabriel Eduardo

    2012-06-01

    This article discusses the limits, alternatives and challenges of environmental management in contemporary globalized capitalist societies. It is based on a critical analysis supported by authors from social sciences, political ecology and public health. To this end, we systematize the meaning of hegemonic environmental management in terms of eco-efficiency and its limits to tackle environmental risks and construct democratic processes and societies. We developed four ideal scenarios involving possible combinations of environmental management and democracy. This model served as a base, together with academic studies and the theoretical and militant experience of the authors, for a reflection on the current characteristics and future trends of environmental management and democracy, with emphasis on the reality of Latin America, specifically Brazil. Lastly, we discuss possibilities for social transformation taking into consideration the contradictions and emancipatory alternatives resulting from confrontations between hegemonic tendencies of the market and counter-hegemonic utopias and social movements. The latter assume principles of environmental justice, economic solidarity, agro-ecology and sustainability as well as the construction of new epistemologies. PMID:22699636

  17. Two graphical user interfaces for managing and analyzing MODFLOW groundwater-model scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Banta, Edward R.

    2014-01-01

    Scenario Manager and Scenario Analyzer are graphical user interfaces that facilitate the use of calibrated, MODFLOW-based groundwater models for investigating possible responses to proposed stresses on a groundwater system. Scenario Manager allows a user, starting with a calibrated model, to design and run model scenarios by adding or modifying stresses simulated by the model. Scenario Analyzer facilitates the process of extracting data from model output and preparing such display elements as maps, charts, and tables. Both programs are designed for users who are familiar with the science on which groundwater modeling is based but who may not have a groundwater modeler’s expertise in building and calibrating a groundwater model from start to finish. With Scenario Manager, the user can manipulate model input to simulate withdrawal or injection wells, time-variant specified hydraulic heads, recharge, and such surface-water features as rivers and canals. Input for stresses to be simulated comes from user-provided geographic information system files and time-series data files. A Scenario Manager project can contain multiple scenarios and is self-documenting. Scenario Analyzer can be used to analyze output from any MODFLOW-based model; it is not limited to use with scenarios generated by Scenario Manager. Model-simulated values of hydraulic head, drawdown, solute concentration, and cell-by-cell flow rates can be presented in display elements. Map data can be represented as lines of equal value (contours) or as a gradated color fill. Charts and tables display time-series data obtained from output generated by a transient-state model run or from user-provided text files of time-series data. A display element can be based entirely on output of a single model run, or, to facilitate comparison of results of multiple scenarios, an element can be based on output from multiple model runs. Scenario Analyzer can export display elements and supporting metadata as a Portable

  18. Simultaneous geologic scenario identification and flow model calibration with group-sparsity formulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Golmohammadi, Azarang; Jafarpour, Behnam

    2016-06-01

    Adopting representative geologic connectivity scenarios is critical for reliable modeling and prediction of flow and transport processes in subsurface environments. Geologic scenarios are often developed by integrating several sources of information, including knowledge of the depositional environment, qualitative and quantitative data such as outcrop and well logs, and process-based geologic modeling. In general, flow and transport response data are usually not included in constructing geologic scenarios for a basin. Instead, these data are typically matched using a given prior geologic scenario as constraint. Since data limitations, modeling assumptions and subjective interpretations can lead to significant uncertainty in the adopted geologic scenarios, flow and transport data may also be useful for constraining the uncertainty in proposed geologic scenarios. Constraining geologic scenarios with flow-related data opens an interesting and challenging research area, which goes beyond the traditional model calibration formulations where the geologic scenario is assumed given. In this paper, a novel concept, known as group-sparsity regularization, is proposed as an effective formulation to constrain the uncertainty in the prior geologic scenario during subsurface flow model calibration. Given a collection of model realizations from several plausible geologic scenarios, the proposed method first applies the truncated singular value decomposition (TSVD) to compactly represent the models from each geologic scenario. The TSVD basis for representing each scenario forms a distinct group. The proposed approach searches over these groups (i.e., geologic scenarios) to eliminate inconsistent groups that are not supported by the observed flow/pressure data. The group-sparsity regularization minimizes a l1/l2mixed norm, where the l2-norm quantifies the contribution of each group and operates on the coefficients within the groups while the l1-norm, having a selection property, is

  19. Joint azimuth and elevation localization estimates in 3D synthetic aperture radar scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pepin, Matthew

    2015-05-01

    maximum estimation accuracy in elevation is selected the multiple baseline interferometric SAR scenario results. Use of a 2D parametric estimation method attains the best accuracy possible in both dimensions. When in some scenarios particularly the orbital case where the azimuth dimension is only approximately linear the full accuracy increase of linear joint azimuth and elevation is not fully attained. Images and point cloud estimates are shown for several linear and orbital SAR scenarios. Images provide a visual representation of the data while the quantitative point cloud data is a direct input for the multiple analyzes listed earlier.

  20. Security Analysis of Selected AMI Failure Scenarios Using Agent Based Game Theoretic Simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Schlicher, Bob G; Sheldon, Frederick T

    2014-01-01

    Information security analysis can be performed using game theory implemented in dynamic Agent Based Game Theoretic (ABGT) simulations. Such simulations can be verified with the results from game theory analysis and further used to explore larger scale, real world scenarios involving multiple attackers, defenders, and information assets. We concentrated our analysis on the Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) functional domain which the National Electric Sector Cyber security Organization Resource (NESCOR) working group has currently documented 29 failure scenarios. The strategy for the game was developed by analyzing five electric sector representative failure scenarios contained in the AMI functional domain. From these five selected scenarios, we characterize them into three specific threat categories affecting confidentiality, integrity and availability (CIA). The analysis using our ABGT simulation demonstrates how to model the AMI functional domain using a set of rationalized game theoretic rules decomposed from the failure scenarios in terms of how those scenarios might impact the AMI network with respect to CIA.

  1. Dynamics of ultrafast photoinduced heterogeneous electron transfer, implications for recent solar energy conversion scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gundlach, Lars; Burfeindt, Bernd; Mahrt, Jürgen; Willig, Frank

    2012-08-01

    The general case of a heterogeneous electron transfer reaction is realized by ultrafast electron transfer from a photo-excited molecule to a wide continuum of electronic acceptor states. Two different theoretical model calculations addressing the injection dynamics have recently been presented. The first scenario predicts a wide energy distribution for the injected electron via excitations of high-energy vibrational modes in the ionized molecule, whereas the second scenario ascribes the width to thermal fluctuations. We present experimental data at different temperatures and identify the valid injection scenario for perylene/TiO2 systems. The results are discussed in view of recent solar energy conversion scenarios.

  2. Water use implications of biofuel scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teter, J.; Mishra, G. S.; Yeh, S.

    2012-12-01

    Existing studies rely upon attributional lifecycle analysis (LCA) approaches to estimate water intensity of biofuels in liters of irrigated/evapotranspiration water consumed for biofuel production. Such approaches can be misleading. From a policy perspective, a better approach is to compare differential water impacts among scenarios on a landscape scale. We address the shortcomings of existing studies by using consequential LCA, and incorporate direct and indirect land use (changes) of biofuel scenarios, marginal vs. average biofuel water use estimates, future climate, and geographic heterogeneity. We use the outputs of a partial equilibrium economic model, climate and soil data, and a process-based crop-soil-climate-water model to estimate differences in green water (GW - directly from precipitation to soil) and blue water (BW - supplied by irrigation) use among three scenarios: (1) business-as-usual (BAU), (2) Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandates, and (3) a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) plus the RFS scenario. We use spatial statistical methods to interpolate key climatic variables using daily climate observations for the contiguous USA. Finally, we use FAO's crop model AquaCrop to estimate the domestic GW and BW impacts of biofuel policies from 2007-2035. We assess the differences among scenarios along the following metrics: (1) crop area expansion at the county level, including prime and marginal lands, (2) crop-specific and overall annual/seasonal water balances including (a) water inflows (irrigation & precipitation), (b) crop-atmosphere interactions: (evaporation & transpiration) and (d) soil-water flows (runoff & soil infiltration), in mm 3 /acre over the relevant time period. The functional unit of analysis is the BW and GW requirements of biofuels (mm3 per Btu biofuel) at the county level. Differential water use impacts among scenarios are a primarily a function of (1) land use conversion, in particular that of formerly uncropped land classes

  3. Development of nonproliferation and assessment scenarios.

    SciTech Connect

    Finley, Melissa; Barnett, Natalie Beth

    2005-10-01

    The overall objective of the Nonproliferation and Assessments Scenario Development project is to create and analyze potential and plausible scenarios that would lead to an adversary's ability to acquire and use a biological weapon. The initial three months of funding was intended to be used to develop a scenario to demonstrate the efficacy of this analysis methodology; however, it was determined that a substantial amount of preliminary data collection would be needed before a proof of concept scenario could be developed. We have dedicated substantial effort to determine the acquisition pathways for Foot and Mouth Disease Virus, and similar processes will be applied to all pathogens of interest. We have developed a biosecurity assessments database to capture information on adversary skill locales, available skill sets in specific regions, pathogen sources and regulations involved in pathogen acquisition from legitimate facilities. FY06 funding, once released, will be dedicated to data collection on acquisition, production and dissemination requirements on a pathogen basis. Once pathogen data has been collected, scenarios will be developed and scored.

  4. Chlorofluorocarbon production scenarios: possible changes to stratospheric ozone

    SciTech Connect

    Wuebbles, D.J.; Tarp, R.L.; Nold, A.; Wood, W.P.

    1981-01-01

    As one aspect of the regulatory process, the Environmental Protection Agency has derived a series of scenarios for future atmospheric emission rates of the chlorofluorocarbons CFCl/sub 3/ (also referred to as F-11), CF/sub 2/Cl/sub 2/ (F-12), CCl/sub 2/FCClF/sub 2/(F-113), CClF/sub 2/CClF/sub 2/(F-114), and CClF/sub 2/CF/sub 3/ (F-115). These scenarios are based on potential industrial production and commercial applications, and the eventual release of these chemicals into the atmosphere. In this study, the potential effect on stratospheric ozone resulting from future chlorofluorocarbon emissions as suggested by these scenarios is examined. Assessments are based upon model calculations using the one-dimensional coupled transport and chemical kinetics model of the troposphere and stratosphere developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The change in total ozone column calculated for the seven scenarios as a function of time is given. (JGB)

  5. The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ross, Stephanie, (Edited By); Jones, Lucile

    2013-01-01

    The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario depicts a hypothetical but plausible tsunami created by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula and its impacts on the California coast. The tsunami scenario is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the California Geological Survey (CGS), the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), other Federal, State, County, and local agencies, private companies, and academic and other institutions. This document presents evidence for past tsunamis, the scientific basis for the source, likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental and ecological impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management and evacuation challenges, and policy implications for California associated with this hypothetical tsunami. We also discuss ongoing mitigation efforts by the State of California and new communication products. The intended users are those who need to make mitigation decisions before future tsunamis, and those who will need to make rapid decisions during tsunami events. The results of the tsunami scenario will help managers understand the context and consequences of their decisions and how they may improve preparedness and response. An evaluation component will assess the effectiveness of the scenario process for target stakeholders in a separate report to improve similar efforts in the future.

  6. Scenario for Hollow Cathode End-Of-Life

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sarver-Verhey, Timothy R.

    2000-01-01

    Recent successful hollow cathode life tests have demonstrated that lifetimes can meet the requirements of several space applications. However, there are no methods for assessing cathode lifetime short of demonstrating the requirement. Previous attempts to estimate or predict cathode lifetime were based on relatively simple chemical depletion models derived from the dispenser cathode community. To address this lack of predicative capability, a scenario for hollow cathode lifetime under steady-state operating conditions is proposed. This scenario has been derived primarily from the operating behavior and post-test condition of a hollow cathode that was operated for 28,000 hours. In this scenario, the insert chemistry evolves through three relatively distinct phases over the course of the cathode lifetime. These phases are believed to correspond to demonstrable changes in cathode operation. The implications for cathode lifetime limits resulting from this scenario are examined, including methods to assess cathode lifetime without operating to End-of- Life and methods to extend the cathode lifetime.

  7. ICRF scenarios for ITER's half-field phase

    SciTech Connect

    Lerche, E.; Van Eester, D.; Ongena, J.; Johnson, T.; Hellsten, T.; Bilato, R.; Czarnecka, A.; Dumont, R.; Krasilnikov, A.; Maslov, M.; Vdovin, V.

    2011-12-23

    The non-active operation phase of ITER will be done in H and {sup 4}He plasmas at half the nominal magnetic field, B{sub 0} = 2.65T. At this field and for the given frequency range of the ICRF system (f = 40-55MHz), three ICRF heating scenarios are available a priori: (i) Fundamental ICRH of majority H plasmas at f{approx_equal}40MHz,(ii) second harmonic (N= 2) {sup 3}He ICRH in H plasmas at f{approx_equal}53MHz and (iii) fundamental minority H heating in {sup 4}He plasmas at f{approx_equal}40MHz. While the latter is expected to perform well for not too large H concentrations, the heating scenarios available for the Hydrogen plasmas are less robust. Recent JET experiments performed in similar conditions to those expected in ITER's half-field phase confirmed the low performance of these two scenarios and numerical simulations have shown that the situation is not much improved in ITER, mainly because of the rather modest plasma temperature and density expected in its initial operation phase. A summary of the main experimental results obtained at JET followed by numerical predictions for ITER's half-field ICRF heating scenarios will be presented.

  8. An extended matter bounce scenario: current status and challenges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Haro, Jaume; Cai, Yi-Fu

    2015-08-01

    As an alternative to the paradigm of slow roll inflation, we propose an extended scenario of the matter bounce cosmology in which the Universe has experienced a quasi-matter contracting phase with a variable background equation of state parameter. This extended matter bounce scenario can be realized by considering a single scalar field evolving along an approximately exponential potential. Our result reveals that the rolling of the scalar field in general leads to a running behavior on the spectral index of primordial cosmological perturbations and a negative running can be realized in this model. We constrain the corresponding parameter space by using the newly released Planck data. To apply this scenario, we revisit bouncing cosmologies within the context of modified gravity theories, in particular, the holonomy corrected loop quantum cosmology and teleparallel F( T) gravity. A gravitational process of reheating is presented in such a matter bounce scenario to demonstrate the condition of satisfying current observations. We also comment on several unresolved issues that often appear in matter bounce models.

  9. A comparison of standard evasion scenarios at near regional distances

    SciTech Connect

    Bos, R.; App, F.; Jones, E.; Dey, T.; Kamm, J.

    1997-01-01

    We performed numerical simulations of three nuclear testing evasion scenarios. These calculations were done in two parts. The first part was done near source (within 10 km) with a non-linear weapons effects code. Particle velocity histories from the non-linear code were linked to an elastic linear finite-difference code for the second part. Seismic waveforms from the evasion scenario calculations were compared with the waveforms for a non-evasive explosion calculation at near regional distances. The results of this comparison suggest that it may be important to include realistic stratigraphy in such simulations: the overall wave amplitude in the present simulations is reduced by only a factor of 3-5 in contradiction to factors of 20-100 in {open_quotes}classical{close_quotes} decoupling analyses for ideal (i.e., unlayered) media. Two of the evasion scenarios simulated retain explosive waveform characteristics at near regional distances, while the third scenario indicates that certain source geometries might lead to more non-explosive (i.e., earthquake-like) seismic signals.

  10. Reliable Freestanding Position-Based Routing in Highway Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Galaviz-Mosqueda, Gabriel A.; Aquino-Santos, Raúl; Villarreal-Reyes, Salvador; Rivera-Rodríguez, Raúl; Villaseñor-González, Luis; Edwards, Arthur

    2012-01-01

    Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks (VANETs) are considered by car manufacturers and the research community as the enabling technology to radically improve the safety, efficiency and comfort of everyday driving. However, before VANET technology can fulfill all its expected potential, several difficulties must be addressed. One key issue arising when working with VANETs is the complexity of the networking protocols compared to those used by traditional infrastructure networks. Therefore, proper design of the routing strategy becomes a main issue for the effective deployment of VANETs. In this paper, a reliable freestanding position-based routing algorithm (FPBR) for highway scenarios is proposed. For this scenario, several important issues such as the high mobility of vehicles and the propagation conditions may affect the performance of the routing strategy. These constraints have only been partially addressed in previous proposals. In contrast, the design approach used for developing FPBR considered the constraints imposed by a highway scenario and implements mechanisms to overcome them. FPBR performance is compared to one of the leading protocols for highway scenarios. Performance metrics show that FPBR yields similar results when considering freespace propagation conditions, and outperforms the leading protocol when considering a realistic highway path loss model. PMID:23202159

  11. Identification of objective representative scenarios for hazard assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sandri, Laura; Selva, Jacopo; Costa, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    Assessment of volcanic hazards is typically based on one or a few representative eruptive scenarios, meant as specific combinations of a representative eruptive size, intensity, and vent position, selected with subjective criteria neglecting the full intrinsic natural variability characterizing volcanic processes. In common practice, the size and intensity of such scenarios are taken as representative of wider ranges, here termed "size classes". The approach implicitly or explicitly assumes that the inter-size class variability (among different eruptive size classes) is predominant with respect to the intra-size class variability (i.e., the variability inside each range represented by an eruptive size and intensity), the latter assumed as negligible. So far, no quantitative study has been carried out to verify such an assumption. Here, we first adopt a novel statistical strategy, that accounts for the full natural variability, to quantify the Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment for tephra fallout in the Campania area. Secondly, we compare the results of the new method with those based on few representative scenarios only. On one hand, such comparison allows for determining when the simplified approach is valid, and quantifying the bias introduced in hazard assessment when the full variability is not accounted for. On the other hand, this novel approach opens the way to an objective a posteriori identification of a limited number of representative scenarios, which are necessary when there is no possibility to explore the full variability, as for example for rapid hazard assessment during emergencies, or for short-term hazard assessment.

  12. Reliable freestanding position-based routing in highway scenarios.

    PubMed

    Galaviz-Mosqueda, Gabriel A; Aquino-Santos, Raúl; Villarreal-Reyes, Salvador; Rivera-Rodríguez, Raúl; Villaseñor-González, Luis; Edwards, Arthur

    2012-01-01

    Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks (VANETs) are considered by car manufacturers and the research community as the enabling technology to radically improve the safety, efficiency and comfort of everyday driving. However, before VANET technology can fulfill all its expected potential, several difficulties must be addressed. One key issue arising when working with VANETs is the complexity of the networking protocols compared to those used by traditional infrastructure networks. Therefore, proper design of the routing strategy becomes a main issue for the effective deployment of VANETs. In this paper, a reliable freestanding position-based routing algorithm (FPBR) for highway scenarios is proposed. For this scenario, several important issues such as the high mobility of vehicles and the propagation conditions may affect the performance of the routing strategy. These constraints have only been partially addressed in previous proposals. In contrast, the design approach used for developing FPBR considered the constraints imposed by a highway scenario and implements mechanisms to overcome them. FPBR performance is compared to one of the leading protocols for highway scenarios. Performance metrics show that FPBR yields similar results when considering freespace propagation conditions, and outperforms the leading protocol when considering a realistic highway path loss model. PMID:23202159

  13. The hypothetical collapse of cape Canaille: different scenarios investigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khvostova, O.; Kurkin, A.; Kharif, Ch.

    2009-04-01

    Cassis is a nice touristy town located near Marseille, France. This is one of the top places in the south French coast of the Mediterranean. One of its sightseeing's, the cliff of Cape Canaille is 390 m high, and is the highest coastal cliff in Europe. Due to global warming, the scientific community predicts a rise of the sea level. This will probably enhance the slow erosion of the marl masses located at the foot of the cliff, causing the overhanging of the cliff. This may cause a local tsunami which may become a hazard to the citizens of Cassis. This hypothetical event was discussed and investigated with different scenarios. For the first scenario an axisymmetric, parabolic disturbance of water surface was used. This formula has been used by many researchers to describe the waves generated by explosions in water, explosive eruptions of underwater volcanoes and asteroids striking the ocean. Also the collapse of several blocks was analyzed. Seven identical blocks was considered. The third scenario is cliff falling in a form of an avalanche of rock debris. Funwave model was chosen for the modeling of this hypothetical event. This model is based on Boussinesq-type equations, which provide a general basis for studying wave propagation in two horizontal dimensions. The basic foundation is extended by the addition of terms which include the lowest order effects of non linearity and frequency dispersion. This formulation provides a sound and increasingly well-tested basis for the simulation of wave propagation in coastal region. The results of all the scenario simulations are shown. Also the scenario results were compared to each other.

  14. Assessing magnitude probability distribution through physics-based rupture scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hok, Sébastien; Durand, Virginie; Bernard, Pascal; Scotti, Oona

    2016-04-01

    When faced with complex network of faults in a seismic hazard assessment study, the first question raised is to what extent the fault network is connected and what is the probability that an earthquake ruptures simultaneously a series of neighboring segments. Physics-based dynamic rupture models can provide useful insight as to which rupture scenario is most probable, provided that an exhaustive exploration of the variability of the input parameters necessary for the dynamic rupture modeling is accounted for. Given the random nature of some parameters (e.g. hypocenter location) and the limitation of our knowledge, we used a logic-tree approach in order to build the different scenarios and to be able to associate them with a probability. The methodology is applied to the three main faults located along the southern coast of the West Corinth rift. Our logic tree takes into account different hypothesis for: fault geometry, location of hypocenter, seismic cycle position, and fracture energy on the fault plane. The variability of these parameters is discussed, and the different values tested are weighted accordingly. 64 scenarios resulting from 64 parameter combinations were included. Sensitivity studies were done to illustrate which parameters control the variability of the results. Given the weight of the input parameters, we evaluated the probability to obtain a full network break to be 15 %, while single segment rupture represents 50 % of the scenarios. These rupture scenario probability distribution along the three faults of the West Corinth rift fault network can then be used as input to a seismic hazard calculation.

  15. National Scale Prediction of Soil Carbon Sequestration under Scenarios of Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Izaurralde, R. C.; Thomson, A. M.; Potter, S. R.; Atwood, J. D.; Williams, J. R.

    2006-12-01

    Carbon sequestration in agricultural soils is gaining momentum as a tool to mitigate the rate of increase of atmospheric CO2. Researchers from the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Texas A&M University, and USDA-NRCS used the EPIC model to develop national-scale predictions of soil carbon sequestration with adoption of no till (NT) under scenarios of climate change. In its current form, the EPIC model simulates soil C changes resulting from heterotrophic respiration and wind / water erosion. Representative modeling units were created to capture the climate, soil, and management variability at the 8-digit hydrologic unit (USGS classification) watershed scale. The soils selected represented at least 70% of the variability within each watershed. This resulted in 7,540 representative modeling units for 1,412 watersheds. Each watershed was assigned a major crop system: corn, soybean, spring wheat, winter wheat, cotton, hay, alfalfa, corn-soybean rotation or wheat-fallow rotation based on information from the National Resource Inventory. Each representative farm was simulated with conventional tillage and no tillage, and with and without irrigation. Climate change scenarios for two future periods (2015-2045 and 2045-2075) were selected from GCM model runs using the IPCC SRES scenarios of A2 and B2 from the UK Hadley Center (HadCM3) and US DOE PCM (PCM) models. Changes in mean and standard deviation of monthly temperature and precipitation were extracted from gridded files and applied to baseline climate (1960-1990) for each of the 1,412 modeled watersheds. Modeled crop yields were validated against historical USDA NASS county yields (1960-1990). The HadCM3 model predicted the most severe changes in climate parameters. Overall, there would be little difference between the A2 and B2 scenarios. Carbon offsets were calculated as the difference in soil C change between conventional and no till. Overall, C offsets during the first 30-y period (513 Tg C) are predicted to

  16. Monte Carlo simulation of scenario probability distributions

    SciTech Connect

    Glaser, R.

    1996-10-23

    Suppose a scenario of interest can be represented as a series of events. A final result R may be viewed then as the intersection of three events, A, B, and C. The probability of the result P(R) in this case is the product P(R) = P(A) P(B {vert_bar} A) P(C {vert_bar} A {intersection} B). An expert may be reluctant to estimate P(R) as a whole yet agree to supply his notions of the component probabilities in the form of prior distributions. Each component prior distribution may be viewed as the stochastic characterization of the expert`s uncertainty regarding the true value of the component probability. Mathematically, the component probabilities are treated as independent random variables and P(R) as their product; the induced prior distribution for P(R) is determined which characterizes the expert`s uncertainty regarding P(R). It may be both convenient and adequate to approximate the desired distribution by Monte Carlo simulation. Software has been written for this task that allows a variety of component priors that experts with good engineering judgment might feel comfortable with. The priors are mostly based on so-called likelihood classes. The software permits an expert to choose for a given component event probability one of six types of prior distributions, and the expert specifies the parameter value(s) for that prior. Each prior is unimodal. The expert essentially decides where the mode is, how the probability is distributed in the vicinity of the mode, and how rapidly it attenuates away. Limiting and degenerate applications allow the expert to be vague or precise.

  17. Water Availability in Indus River at the Upper Indus Basin under Different Climate Change Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khan, Firdos; Pilz, Jürgen

    2015-04-01

    The last decade of the 20th century and the first decade of the 21st century showed that climate change or global warming is happening and the latter one is considered as the warmest decade over Pakistan ever in history where temperature reached 53 0C on May 26, 2010. The changing climate has impact on various areas including agriculture, water, health, among others. There are two main forces which have central role in changing climate: one is natural variability and the other one is human evoked changes, increasing the density of green house gases. The elements in the bunch of Energy-Food-Water are interlinked with one another and among them water plays a crucial role for the existence of the other two parts. This nexus is the central environmental issue around the globe generally, and is of particular importance in the developing countries. The study evaluated the importance and the availability of water in Indus River under different emission scenarios. Four emission scenarios are included, that is, the A2, B2, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. One way coupling of regional climate models (RCMs) and Hydrological model have been implemented in this study. The PRECIS (Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies) and CCAM (Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model) climate models and UBCWM (University of British Columbia Watershed Model) hydrological model are used for this purpose. It is observed that Indus River contributes 80 % of the hydro-power generation and contributes 44 % to available water annually in Pakistan. It is further investigated whether sufficient water will be available in the Indus River under climate change scenarios. Toward this goal, Tarbela Reservoir is used as a measurement tool using the parameters of the reservoir like maximum operating storage, dead level storage, discharge capacity of tunnels and spillways. The results of this study are extremely important for the economy of Pakistan in various key areas like agriculture, energy, industries and ecosystem

  18. Development and Application of Future Climate Scenarios for Natural Resource Management in Southwestern Colorado

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rangwala, I.; Rondeau, R.; Wyborn, C.; Clifford, K. R.; Travis, W.

    2015-12-01

    Locally relevant projections of climate change provide critical insights for natural resource managers seeking to adapt their management activities to climate change in the context of uncertainty. To provide such information, we developed climate scenarios, in form of narratives and quantitative information, of future climate change and its impacts in southwestern Colorado. This information was intended to provide detailed insights into the range of changes that natural resource managers may face in the future. The scenarios were developed in an iterative process through interactions among the ecologists, social and climate scientists. In our scenario development process, climate uncertainty is acknowledged by having multiple scenarios, where each scenario is regarded as a storyline with equal likelihood as another scenario. We quantified changes in several decision relevant climate and ecological responses based on our best available understanding and provided a tight storyline for each scenario to facilitate (a) a more augmented use of scientific information in a decision-making process, (b) differential responses from stakeholders across the different scenarios, and (c) identification of strategies that could work across these multiple scenarios. Here, we discuss the process of selecting the scenarios, quantifying climate and ecological responses, and the criteria for building the narrative for each scenario. We also discuss the process by which these scenarios get used, and provide an assessment of their effectiveness and users' feedbacks that could inform the future development of these tools and processes. This research involvement and collaboration occurred, in part, as a result of the PACE Fellowship Program that is associated with NOAA Climate Program Office and the U.S. CLIVAR community.

  19. Overview of a new scenario framework for climate change research

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ebi, K. L.

    2013-12-01

    The scientific community is developing new integrated global, regional, and sectoral scenarios to facilitate interdisciplinary research and assessment to explore the range of possible future climates and related physical changes; the risks these could pose to human and natural systems, particularly how these changes could interact with social, economic, and environmental development pathways; the degree to which mitigation and adaptation policies can avoid and reduce the risks; the costs and benefits of various policy mixes; residual impacts under alternative pathways; and the relationship with sustainable development. Developing new scenarios for use in impacts, adaptation, and mitigation research requires more than emissions of greenhouse gases and resulting climate change. Scenarios also require assumptions about socioeconomic development, including a narrative, and qualitative and quantitative assumptions about development patterns. An insight recently gained is that the magnitude and extent of greenhouse gas emissions is relatively independent of demographic and socioeconomic development; that is, multiple demographic and socioeconomic development pathways can lead to any particular emission scenario. A relatively wealthy world with high population density could have low greenhouse gas emissions because of policies that encourage energy efficiency and sufficient low emission technology. The opposite also is plausible. Therefore, demographic and socioeconomic development pathways can be described separately from the Representative Concentration Pathways and then combined using a matrix architecture into a broader range of scenarios than was possible with the SRES. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) define the state of human and natural societies at a macro scale. To encompass a wide range of possible development pathways, five SSPs are defined along two axes describing worlds with increasing socioeconomic challenges to mitigation (y-axis) and adaptation (x

  20. Maximising the Effectiveness of a Scenario Planning Process: Tips for Scenario Planners in Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sayers, Nicola

    2011-01-01

    Scenario planning is a tool which can help organisations and people to think about, and plan for, the long-term future. In basic terms, it involves creating a number of in-depth scenarios (stories), each of which tells of a different possible future for an organisation or issue, and considering how each different future might influence…

  1. Blacks' and Whites' Perceptions of Real-Life Scenarios: A Preliminary Investigation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brinson, Jesse A.; Morris, Joseph R.

    2001-01-01

    This study investigated the perceptual differences between Black and White counselor trainees toward 12 real-life scenarios featuring Black and White individuals. The authors hypothesized that the two groups would differ in their perceptions of most of the scenarios. The results reveal significant differences in perceptions on 4 out of 12…

  2. Future Scenario Writing as a Family Problem Solving Activity: If Today Were Tomorrow.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Murdock, Mary C.

    1993-01-01

    Future scenario writing is presented as a combined writing and problem-solving technique that identifies alternative ways of thinking about situations. Uses of future scenario writing in family problem solving include setting family goals, communicating growth resulting from new experiences, resolving family problems, encouraging family…

  3. The Survival Effect in Memory: Does It Hold into Old Age and Non-Ancestral Scenarios?

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Lixia; Lau, Karen P. L.; Truong, Linda

    2014-01-01

    The survival effect in memory refers to the memory enhancement for materials encoded in reference to a survival scenario compared to those encoded in reference to a control scenario or with other encoding strategies [1]. The current study examined whether this effect is well maintained in old age by testing young (ages 18–29) and older adults (ages 65–87) on the survival effect in memory for words encoded in ancestral and/or non-ancestral modern survival scenarios relative to a non-survival control scenario. A pilot study was conducted to select the best matched comparison scenarios based on potential confounding variables, such as valence and arousal. Experiment 1 assessed the survival effect with a well-matched negative control scenario in both young and older adults. The results showed an age-equivalent survival effect across an ancestral and a non-ancestral modern survival scenario. Experiment 2 replicated the survival effect in both age groups with a positive control scenario. Taken together, the data suggest a robust survival effect that is well preserved in old age across ancestral and non-ancestral survival scenarios. PMID:24788755

  4. Scenarios for Benefits Analysis of Energy Research, Development,Demonstration and Deployment

    SciTech Connect

    Gumerman, Etan; Marnay, Chris

    2005-09-07

    was that LBNL started working with the AEO 2004NEMS code and EIA was using AEO 2005 NEMS code. Unlike the High Price Scenario the Carbon Cap scenario gives a radically different forecast than the Reference Scenario. NEMS-LBNL proved that it can handle these alternative scenarios. However, results are price inelastic (for both oil and natural gas prices) within the price range evaluated. Perhaps even higher price paths would lead to a distinctly different forecast than the Reference Scenario. On the other hand, the Carbon Cap Scenario behaves more like an alternative future. The future in the Carbon Cap Scenario has higher electricity prices, reduced driving, more renewable capacity, and reduced energy consumption. The next step for this work is to evaluate the EE benefits under each of the three scenarios. Comparing those three sets of predicted benefits will indicate how much uncertainty is inherent within this sort of deterministic forecasting.

  5. Radiation Protection for Lunar Mission Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Clowdsley, Martha S.; Nealy, John E.; Wilson, John W.; Anderson, Brooke M.; Anderson, Mark S.; Krizan, Shawn A.

    2005-01-01

    Preliminary analyses of shielding requirements to protect astronauts from the harmful effects of radiation on both short-term and long-term lunar missions have been performed. Shielding needs for both solar particle events (SPEs) and galactic cosmic ray (GCR) exposure are discussed for transit vehicles and surface habitats. This work was performed under the aegis of two NASA initiatives. The first study was an architecture trade study led by Langley Research Center (LaRC) in which a broad range of vehicle types and mission scenarios were compared. The radiation analysis for this study primarily focused on the additional shielding mass required to protect astronauts from the rare occurrence of a large SPE. The second study, led by Johnson Space Center (JSC), involved the design of lunar habitats. Researchers at LaRC were asked to evaluate the changes to mission architecture that would be needed if the surface stay were lengthened from a shorter mission duration of 30 to 90 days to a longer stay of 500 days. Here, the primary radiation concern was GCR exposure. The methods used for these studies as well as the resulting shielding recommendations are discussed. Recommendations are also made for more detailed analyses to minimize shielding mass, once preliminary vehicle and habitat designs have been completed. Here, methodologies are mapped out and available radiation analysis tools are described. Since, as yet, no dosimetric limits have been adopted for missions beyond low earth orbit (LEO), radiation exposures are compared to LEO limits. Uncertainties associated with the LEO career effective dose limits and the effects of lowering these limits on shielding mass are also discussed.

  6. Model and Scenario Variations in Predicted Number of Generations of Spodoptera litura Fab. on Peanut during Future Climate Change Scenario

    PubMed Central

    Srinivasa Rao, Mathukumalli; Swathi, Pettem; Rama Rao, Chitiprolu Anantha; Rao, K. V.; Raju, B. M. K.; Srinivas, Karlapudi; Manimanjari, Dammu; Maheswari, Mandapaka

    2015-01-01

    The present study features the estimation of number of generations of tobacco caterpillar, Spodoptera litura. Fab. on peanut crop at six locations in India using MarkSim, which provides General Circulation Model (GCM) of future data on daily maximum (T.max), minimum (T.min) air temperatures from six models viz., BCCR-BCM2.0, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.5, ECHams5, INCM-CM3.0 and MIROC3.2 along with an ensemble of the six from three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1). This data was used to predict the future pest scenarios following the growing degree days approach in four different climate periods viz., Baseline-1975, Near future (NF) -2020, Distant future (DF)-2050 and Very Distant future (VDF)—2080. It is predicted that more generations would occur during the three future climate periods with significant variation among scenarios and models. Among the seven models, 1–2 additional generations were predicted during DF and VDF due to higher future temperatures in CNRM-CM3, ECHams5 & CSIRO-Mk3.5 models. The temperature projections of these models indicated that the generation time would decrease by 18–22% over baseline. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to partition the variation in the predicted number of generations and generation time of S. litura on peanut during crop season. Geographical location explained 34% of the total variation in number of generations, followed by time period (26%), model (1.74%) and scenario (0.74%). The remaining 14% of the variation was explained by interactions. Increased number of generations and reduction of generation time across the six peanut growing locations of India suggest that the incidence of S. litura may increase due to projected increase in temperatures in future climate change periods. PMID:25671564

  7. Alternative scenarios to meet the demands of sustainable waste management.

    PubMed

    Bovea, M D; Powell, J C

    2006-04-01

    This paper analyses different alternatives for solid waste management that can be implemented to enable the targets required by the European Landfill and Packaging and Packaging Waste Directives to be achieved in the Valencian Community, on the east coast of Spain. The methodology applied to evaluate the environmental performance of each alternative is Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). The analysis has been performed at two levels; first, the emissions accounted for in the inventory stage have been arranged into impact categories to obtain an indicator for each category; and secondly, the weighting of environmental data to a single unit has been applied. Despite quantitative differences between the results obtained with four alternative impact assessment methods, the same preference ranking has been established: scenarios with energy recovery (1v and 2v) achieve major improvements compared to baseline, with scenario 1v being better than 2v for all impact assessment methods except for the EPS'00 method, which obtains better results for scenario 2v. Sensitivity analysis has been used to test some of the assumptions used in the initial life cycle inventory model but none have a significant effect on the overall results. As a result, the best alternative to the existing waste management system can be identified. PMID:16202507

  8. Scenario-Based E-Learning Design

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Iverson, Kathleen; Colkey, Deborah

    2004-01-01

    As it was initially implemented, e-learning did little other than supply facts and information, offering limited opportunity for interactivity and problem-solving. Designers need to find ways to address past limitations and bring the engagement of classroom training to the web. One method that merits attention is scenario-based learning. The…

  9. Probabilistic Simulation of Territorial Seismic Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Baratta, Alessandro; Corbi, Ileana

    2008-07-08

    The paper is focused on a stochastic process for the prevision of seismic scenarios on the territory and developed by means of some basic assumptions in the procedure and by elaborating the fundamental parameters recorded during some ground motions occurred in a seismic area.

  10. Using Scenarios and Simulations to Plan Colleges

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McIntyre, Chuck

    2004-01-01

    Using a case study, this article describes a method by which higher education institutions construct and use multiple future scenarios and simulations to plan strategically: to create visions of their futures, chart broad directions (mission and goals), and select learning and delivery strategies so as to achieve those broad directions. The…

  11. Use of simplifier scenarios for CRM training

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weatherly, D.

    1984-01-01

    Cockpit resource management (CRM) at Metro Airlines is discussed. The process by which the program of CRM training was initiated is mentioned. Management aspects of various flying scenarios are considered. The transfer of training from the classroom to the field is assessed.

  12. Wiki Based Collaborative Learning in Interuniversity Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Katzlinger, Elisabeth; Herzog, Michael A.

    2014-01-01

    In business education advanced collaboration skills and media literacy are important for surviving in a globalized business where virtual communication between enterprises is part of the day-by-day business. To transform these global working situations into higher education, a learning scenario between two universities in Germany and Austria was…

  13. Future Scenarios for Mobile Science Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burden, Kevin; Kearney, Matthew

    2016-01-01

    This paper adopts scenario planning as a methodological approach and tool to help science educators reconceptualise their use of mobile technologies across various different futures. These "futures" are set out neither as predictions nor prognoses but rather as stimuli to encourage greater discussion and reflection around the use of…

  14. Risk Appraisal in Scripted Acquaintance Rape Scenarios.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wright, Doris J.

    Cognitive appraisals are believed to influence how women judge or appraise risk in acquaintance interactions which lead to sexual assault. Ways in which men and women judge the presence of risk factors in scripted acquaintance rape scenarios, and whether alcohol was a significant factor in assessing risk, are examined in this paper. Participants…

  15. Linguistic evaluation of terrorist scenarios: example application.

    SciTech Connect

    Darby, John L.

    2007-03-01

    In 2005, a group of international decision makers developed a manual process for evaluating terrorist scenarios. That process has been implemented in the approximate reasoning Java software tool, LinguisticBelief, released in FY2007. One purpose of this report is to show the flexibility of the LinguisticBelief tool to automate a custom model developed by others. LinguisticBelief evaluates combinations of linguistic variables using an approximate reasoning rule base. Each variable is comprised of fuzzy sets, and a rule base describes the reasoning on combinations of variables fuzzy sets. Uncertainty is considered and propagated through the rule base using the belief/plausibility measure. This report documents the evaluation and rank-ordering of several example terrorist scenarios for the existing process implemented in our software. LinguisticBelief captures and propagates uncertainty and allows easy development of an expanded, more detailed evaluation, neither of which is feasible using a manual evaluation process. In conclusion, the Linguistic-Belief tool is able to (1) automate an expert-generated reasoning process for the evaluation of the risk of terrorist scenarios, including uncertainty, and (2) quickly evaluate and rank-order scenarios of concern using that process.

  16. Ethics Scenarios: A Critical Theory Symposium.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Anderson, Jane; And Others

    This symposium chaired by John C. Belland addressed the ethical position of educational communications and technology in society. Presenters created ethics scenarios and applied critical theory to provide insight. Intended to stimulate questions, the approach was philosophical, literary, and sociopolitical, and reflected Derrida, Foucault, and…

  17. Flooding Capability for River-based Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Curtis L.; Prescott, Steven; Ryan, Emerald; Calhoun, Donna; Sampath, Ramprasad; Anderson, S. Danielle; Casteneda, Cody

    2015-10-01

    This report describes the initial investigation into modeling and simulation tools for application of riverine flooding representation as part of the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway external hazards evaluations. The report provides examples of different flooding conditions and scenarios that could impact river and watershed systems. Both 2D and 3D modeling approaches are described.

  18. Biomass round bales infield aggregation logistic scenarios

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Biomass bales often need to be aggregated (collected into groups and transported) to a field-edge stack for temporary storage for feedlots or processing facilities. Aggregating the bales with the least total distance involved is a goal of producers and bale handlers. Several logistics scenarios for ...

  19. School Improvement Strategies That Work: Some Scenarios.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Huberman, A. Michael

    1983-01-01

    School improvement strategies are presented in four scenarios: (1) high outcomes from enforced, stabilized use; (2) moderate to high outcomes from high mastery and low settledness; (3) moderate to low outcomes from program blunting or downsizing; and (4) failing, low levels of outcome from indifference and discouragement. (MD)

  20. Biomass Potentials in Different Maintenance Scenarios of Satoyama Woodlands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Terada, T.

    2012-04-01

    Woodlands near human settlements often have long histories of providing people with fuelwood and other organic materials. In Japan, these woodlands are called satoyama. While satoyama woodlands were historically coppiced to provide an essential source of fuelwood, many have been developed into residential areas as a result of the introduction of fossil fuels beginning in the 1960's. Remaining satoyamas were simply abandoned due to the loss of economic value from fuelwood. This has resulted in a loss of other satoyama-related functions such as their ecological function. In response to the abandonment of satoyamas, thousands of volunteer groups have formed since the 1990's to restore satoyama woodlands. However, in spite of the importance of grassroots volunteers, their actual activities are limited in spatial extent due to shortages of manpower, time, and maintenance skill. This suggests that more substantial incentives are necessary, if maintenance of satoyama woodlands is to be extended. This study focused on an increased attention of biomass enegy utilization from satoyama trees as a promising incentive, and estimated biomass potentials in different maintenance scenarios of satoyama woodlands through a case study site in peri-urban Tokyo. This study set four maintenance scenarios; a) ground cover removal, b) light-thinning, c) intensive-thinning, and d) rotational coppicing. Based on the scenarios, the amount of biomass obtained, bioenergy generated, and carbon reduced were estimated respectively by the combination of conducting tree measurement and applying a long-term forest dynamics estimation model. Since there is tradeoff between CO2 reduction through woodenergy utilization and CO2 fixation by standing trees, these two variables were analyzed in tandem. The scenario that produces the most woody biomass was rotational coppicing, the maintenance scenario which also mimics historical management regimes. Despite the lowest potential of CO2 fixation by standing

  1. Hydropower and water supply: competing water uses under a future drier climate modeling scenarios for the Tagus River basin, Portugal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alexandre Diogo, Paulo; Nunes, João Pedro; Carmona Rodrigues, António; João Cruz, Maria; Grosso, Nuno

    2014-05-01

    Climate change in the Mediterranean region is expected to affect existing water resources, both in quantity and quality, as decreased mean annual precipitation and more frequent extreme precipitation events are likely to occur. Also, energy needs tend to increase, together with growing awareness that fossil fuels emissions are determinately responsible for global temperature rise, enhancing renewable energy use and reinforcing the importance of hydropower. When considered together, these facts represent a relevant threat to multipurpose reservoir operations. Great Lisbon main water supply (for c.a. 3 million people), managed by EPAL, is located in Castelo de Bode Reservoir, in the Tagus River affluent designated as Zêzere River. Castelo de Bode is a multipurpose infrastructure as it is also part of the hydropower network system of EDP, the main power company in Portugal. Facing the risk of potential climate change impacts on water resources availability, and as part of a wider project promoted by EPAL (designated as ADAPTACLIMA), climate change impacts on the Zêzere watershed where evaluated based on climate change scenarios for the XXI century. A sequential modeling approach was used and included downscaling climate data methodologies, hydrological modeling, volume reservoir simulations and water quality modeling. The hydrological model SWAT was used to predict the impacts of the A2 and B2 scenarios in 2010-2100, combined with changes in socio-economic drivers such as land use and water demands. Reservoir storage simulations where performed according to hydrological modeling results, water supply needs and dam operational requirements, such as minimum and maximum operational pool levels and turbine capacity. The Ce-Qual-W2 water quality model was used to assess water quality impacts. According to climate scenarios A2 and B2, rainfall decreases between 10 and 18% are expected by 2100, leading to drier climatic conditions and increased frequency and magnitude of

  2. Overview of the ARkStorm scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Porter, Keith; Wein, Anne; Alpers, Charles; Baez, Allan; Barnard, Patrick L.; Carter, James; Corsi, Alessandra; Costner, James; Cox, Dale; Das, Tapash; Dettinger, Mike; Done, James; Eadie, Charles; Eymann, Marcia; Ferris, Justin; Gunturi, Prasad; Hughes, Mimi; Jarrett, Robert; Johnson, Laurie; Le-Griffin, Hanh Dam; Mitchell, David; Morman, Suzette; Neiman, Paul; Olsen, Anna; Perry, Suzanne; Plumlee, Geoffrey; Ralph, Martin; Reynolds, David; Rose, Adam; Schaefer, Kathleen; Serakos, Julie; Siembieda, William; Stock, Jonathan; Strong, David; Wing, Ian Sue; Tang, Alex; Thomas, Pete; Topping, Ken; Wills, Chris; Jones, Lucile

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey, Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) uses hazards science to improve resiliency of communities to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages emergency planners, businesses, universities, government agencies, and others in preparing for major natural disasters. The project also helps to set research goals and provides decision-making information for loss reduction and improved resiliency. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. This detailed depiction of a hypothetical magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California served as the centerpiece of the largest earthquake drill in United States history, involving over 5,000 emergency responders and the participation of over 5.5 million citizens. This document summarizes the next major public project for MHDP, a winter storm scenario called ARkStorm (for Atmospheric River 1,000). Experts have designed a large, scientifically realistic meteorological event followed by an examination of the secondary hazards (for example, landslides and flooding), physical damages to the built environment, and social and economic consequences. The hypothetical storm depicted here would strike the U.S. West Coast and be similar to the intense California winter storms of 1861 and 1862 that left the central valley of California impassible. The storm is estimated to produce precipitation that in many places exceeds levels only experienced on average once every 500 to 1,000 years. Extensive flooding results. In many cases flooding overwhelms the state's flood-protection system, which is typically designed to resist 100- to 200-year runoffs. The Central Valley experiences hypothetical flooding 300 miles long and 20 or more miles wide. Serious flooding also occurs in Orange County, Los Angeles County, San Diego, the San Francisco Bay area, and other

  3. Probabilistic scenario-based water resource planning and management:A case study in the Yellow River Basin, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dong, C.; Schoups, G.; van de Giesen, N.

    2012-04-01

    Water resource planning and management is subject to large uncertainties with respect to the impact of climate change and socio-economic development on water systems. In order to deal with these uncertainties, probabilistic climate and socio-economic scenarios were developed based on the Principle of Maximum Entropy, as defined within information theory, and as inputs to hydrological models to construct probabilistic water scenarios using Monte Carlo simulation. Probabilistic scenarios provide more explicit information than equally-likely scenarios for decision-making in water resource management. A case was developed for the Yellow River Basin, China, where future water availability and water demand are affected by both climate change and socio-economic development. Climate scenarios of future precipitation and temperature were developed based on the results of multiple Global climate models; and socio-economic scenarios were downscaled from existing large-scale scenarios. Probability distributions were assigned to these scenarios to explicitly represent a full set of future possibilities. Probabilistic climate scenarios were used as input to a rainfall-runoff model to simulate future river discharge and socio-economic scenarios for calculating water demand. A full set of possible future water supply-demand scenarios and their associated probability distributions were generated. This set can feed the further analysis of the future water balance, which can be used as a basis to plan and manage water resources in the Yellow River Basin. Key words: Probabilistic scenarios, climate change, socio-economic development, water management

  4. Climate change scenarios and its impact on water resources of Langtang Khola Basin, Nepal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adhikari, T. Raj; Prasad Devkota, L.; Bhakta Shrestha, A.

    2014-09-01

    General Circulation Models (GCMs) successfully simulate future climate variability and climate change on a global scale; however, poor spatial resolution constrains their application for impact studies at a regional or a local level. The dynamically downscaled precipitation and temperature data were used for the future climate scenarios prediction for the period 2000-2050s, under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 and A1B scenarios. In addition, rating equation was developed from measured discharge and gauge (stage) height data. The generated precipitation and temperature data from downscale and rating equation was used to run the HBV-Light 3.0 conceptual rainfall-runoff model for the calibration and validation of the model, gauge height was taken in the reference period (1988-2009). In the HBV-Light 3.0, a GAP optimization approach was used to calibrate the observed streamflow. From the precipitation scenarios with SRES A2 and A1B emissions at Kyanging, an increase of precipitation during summer and spring and a decrease during winter and autumn seasons was shown. The model projected annual precipitation for the 2050s of both the A2 and A1B scenarios are 716.4 mm and 703.6 mm, respectively. Such precipitation projections indicate the future increase of precipitation in all seasons except the summer. By the end of the 2050s simulation projects an increase maximum (minimum) discharge of 37.8 m3/s (13.9 m3/s) for A1B scenario and 36.2 m3/s (14.3 m3/s) for A2 scenario. A maximum projected discharge will increase for all seasons except for spring, whereas the minimum will decrease in summer.

  5. The Thames Gateway: planning policy and flood risk scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eldridge, Jillian; Horn, Diane

    2010-05-01

    The Thames Gateway, currently Europe's largest regeneration project, presents a valuable case study area in which to examine the interrelated issues of planning policy, flood risk and insurance loss potential. The region is typified by a significant exposure to flooding due to its location, which as developments proceed, could result in increased areas of vulnerability with consequential insurance loss and hotspots of risk. With 160,000 new homes planned by 2016, positive use of planning policy is fundamental in minimising potential flood risk as well as ensuring long term economic and social goals can be met. This project focuses on several planning scenarios within the Gateway for the areas of Barking and Medway, and models flood risk using a commercial flood model to develop the flood risk under alternative planning policy scenarios. The two areas chosen demonstrate major regeneration and redevelopment sites located on Thames tidal floodplain. The areas are protected by flood defences although are both downstream of the Thames Barrier. However, it is expected that defences will be maintained and upgraded over the next several years, particularly in the Medway, which is currently protected to a lower level than most other areas in the Thames Gateway. The progress of development is more advanced in Barking with the major regeneration site, Barking Riverside, hosting 2000 new homes. The study sites have been chosen based on their location and proximity to the Thames and allow for an analysis of planning policy and its influence in minimising risk into the future. The reflected change in flood risk due to both the planned developments and flood defences will help to understand change in risk over time and the intricacies expected with delivering planning policy in a multi-governed area subject to conflicting objectives. Flood risk for both sites are modelled using a commercial flood model to estimate flood risk based on several flood scenarios for both current and

  6. Potential release scenarios for carbon nanotubes used in composites.

    PubMed

    Nowack, Bernd; David, Raymond M; Fissan, Heinz; Morris, Howard; Shatkin, Jo Anne; Stintz, Michael; Zepp, Richard; Brouwer, Derk

    2013-09-01

    The expected widespread use of carbon nanotube (CNT)-composites in consumer products calls for an assessment of the possible release and exposure to workers, consumers and the environment. Release of CNTs may occur at all steps in the life cycle of products, but to date only limited information is available about release of CNTs from actual products and articles. As a starting point for exposure assessment, exploring sources and pathways of release helps to identify relevant applications and situations where the environment and especially humans may encounter releases of CNTs. It is the aim of this review to identify various potential release scenarios for CNTs used in polymers and identify the greatest likelihood of release at the various stages throughout the life-cycle of the product. The available information on release of CNTs from products and articles is reviewed in a first part. In a second part nine relevant release scenarios are described in detail: injection molding, manufacturing, sports equipment, electronics, windmill blades, fuel system components, tires, textiles, incineration, and landfills. Release from products can potentially occur by two pathways; (a) where free CNTs are released directly, or more frequently (b) where the initial release is a particle with CNTs embedded in the matrix, potentially followed by the subsequent release of CNTs from the matrix. The potential for release during manufacturing exists for all scenarios, however, this is also the situation when exposure can be best controlled. For most of the other life cycle stages and their corresponding release scenarios, potential release of CNTs can be considered to be low, but it cannot be excluded totally. Direct release to the environment is also considered to be very low for most scenarios except for the use of CNTs in tires where significant abrasion during use and release into the environment would occur. Also the possible future use of CNTs in textiles could result in consumer

  7. Combining regional climate and national human development scenarios to estimate future vulnerability to extreme climate and weather events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patt, A.; Nussbaumer, P.

    2009-04-01

    , frequency of disasters in a country, urbanization, and the level of human development (capturing income, life expectancy, and education)—and the numbers of people killed or in need of assistance at the country level. We replicate results from past studies in showing that human development, perhaps surprisingly, shows a strong non-linear relationship with risk (with countries of intermediate levels of development showing the highest risk levels), although we extend these results through the controlling for other variables. Second, we downscale a suite of GCMs using national meteorological data, in order to generate ranges of estimates for changes in the frequency of each of the climate hazards. Supplementing this, we consider a climate scenario that sees a linear extrapolation of current trends in hazard frequency. Third, we construct scenarios for each of the socio-economic vulnerability drivers, consistent with IPCC SRES A2 and B1 scenarios for population and income changes, and UN estimates for other demographic changes. Pulling the three pieces of analysis together, we are able to construct risk scenarios until 2060. Our results are interesting in several respects. They show socio-economic development fully compensating for climate change in the impact on risk levels, within the range of estimated changes suggested by the suite of climate models. Recognizing the limits of models to predicting changed frequency of extreme events, there is also reason to believe that the current trend in increased hazard frequency may continue; for this latter scenario, risk levels rise substantially. Finally, given the observed non-linear relationship between development and risk, we observe in the B1 scenario risk levels at their highest level between 2030 and 2040, and then declining thereafter, as Mozambique passes the point of medium development. In the A2 scenario, by contrast, risk levels rise through mid-century, as development proceeds more slowly.

  8. The determination of an optimal waste management scenario for Kampala, Uganda.

    PubMed

    Oyoo, Richard; Leemans, Rik; Mol, Arthur P J

    2013-12-01

    The quality of the environment in the city of Kampala is deteriorating. The city needs a novel waste management approach to improve the environmental quality in its heterogeneous settlement patterns. Earlier, an integrated urban waste flow model (IUWFM) was applied to project the future waste flows and their impacts on the environment of Kampala using four waste management scenarios. These scenarios were 'business-as-usual', 'more enforcement', 'more collection' and 'proper management'. The robustness of the scenario results was determined by using a multi-criteria decision analysis. Twenty-four criteria were identified and grouped as environmental, economic, social, technological and general. Equal weights were assigned to these five sets of criteria. The four scenarios were evaluated against all criteria, and a sensitivity analysis was performed on the role of the equal weights on the choice of the scenarios. The results showed that 'proper management' scenario, which integrates diverse technologies and management programs matching with the local context, is the optimal approach to improve Kampala's environmental quality. Scenarios that emphasized more waste collection, but less resource recovery were ranked in the middle. The scenario of maintaining the status quo performed worst. Application of a mix of diverse technologies and management programs matching the local conditions is the most optimal solution to improve Kampala's environmental quality. PMID:24221972

  9. Scenario based approach for multiple source Tsunami Hazard assessment for Sines, Portugal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wronna, M.; Omira, R.; Baptista, M. A.

    2015-08-01

    In this paper, we present a scenario-based approach for tsunami hazard assessment for the city and harbour of Sines - Portugal, one of the test-sites of project ASTARTE. Sines holds one of the most important deep-water ports which contains oil-bearing, petrochemical, liquid bulk, coal and container terminals. The port and its industrial infrastructures are facing the ocean southwest towards the main seismogenic sources. This work considers two different seismic zones: the Southwest Iberian Margin and the Gloria Fault. Within these two regions, we selected a total of six scenarios to assess the tsunami impact at the test site. The tsunami simulations are computed using NSWING a Non-linear Shallow Water Model With Nested Grids. In this study, the static effect of tides is analysed for three different tidal stages MLLW (mean lower low water), MSL (mean sea level) and MHHW (mean higher high water). For each scenario, inundation is described by maximum values of wave height, flow depth, drawback, runup and inundation distance. Synthetic waveforms are computed at virtual tide gauges at specific locations outside and inside the harbour. The final results describe the impact at Sines test site considering the single scenarios at mean sea level, the aggregate scenario and the influence of the tide on the aggregate scenario. The results confirm the composite of Horseshoe and Marques Pombal fault as the worst case scenario. It governs the aggregate scenario with about 60 % and inundates an area of 3.5 km2.

  10. Visual unified modeling language for the composition of scenarios in modeling and simulation systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Talbert, Michael L.; Swayne, Daniel E.

    2006-05-01

    The Department of Defense uses modeling and simulation systems in many various roles, from research and training to modeling likely outcomes of command decisions. Simulation systems have been increasing in complexity with the increased capability of low-cost computer systems to support these DOD requirements. The demand for scenarios is also increasing, but the complexity of the simulation systems has caused a bottleneck in scenario development due to the limited number of individuals with knowledge of the arcane simulator languages in which these scenarios are written. This research combines the results of previous efforts from the Air Force Institute of Technology in visual modeling languages to create a language that unifies description of entities within a scenario with its behavior using a visual tool that was developed in the course of this research. The resulting language has a grammar and syntax that can be parsed from the visual representation of the scenario. The language is designed so that scenarios can be described in a generic manner, not tied to a specific simulation system, allowing the future development of modules to translate the generic scenario into simulation system specific scenarios.

  11. Land-use impacts on water resources and protected areas: applications of state-and-transition simulation modeling of future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilson, T. S.; Sleeter, B. M.; Sherba, J.; Cameron, D.

    2014-12-01

    Human land use will increasingly contribute to habitat losses and water shortages in California, given future population projections and associated demand for agricultural land. Understanding how land-use change may impact future water use and where existing protected areas may be threatened by land-use conversion will be important if effective, sustainable management approaches are to be implemented. We used a state-and-transition simulation modeling (STSM) framework to simulate spatially-explicit (1 km2) historical (1992-2010) and future (2011-2060) land-use change for 52 California counties within the Mediterranean California ecoregion. Historical land use change estimates were derived from the Farmland Mapping and Monitoring Program (FMMP) dataset and attributed with county-level agricultural water-use data from the California Department of Water Resources (CDWR). Six future alternative land-use scenarios were developed and modeled using the historical land-use change estimates and land-use projections based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B1 scenarios. Resulting spatial land-use scenario outputs were combined based on scenario agreement and a land conversion threat index developed to evaluate vulnerability of existing protected areas. Modeled scenario output of county-level agricultural water use data were also summarized, enabling examination of alternative water use futures. We present results of two separate applications of STSM of land-use change, demonstrating the utility of STSM in analyzing land-use related impacts on water resources as well as potential threats to existing protected land. Exploring a range of alternative, yet plausible, land-use change impacts will help to better inform resource management and mitigation strategies.

  12. Space mission scenario development and performance analysis tool

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kordon, Mark; Baker, John; Gilbert, John; Hanks, David

    2004-01-01

    This paper discusses a new and innovative approach for a rapid spacecraft multi-disciplinary performance analysis using a tool called the Mission Scenario Development Workbench (MSDW). To meet the needs of new classes of space missions, analysis tools with proven models were developed and integrated into a framework to enable rapid trades and analyses between spacecraft designs and operational scenarios during the formulation phase of a mission. Generally speaking, spacecraft resources are highly constrained on deep space missions and this approach makes it possible to maximize the use of existing resources to attain the best possible science return. This approach also has the potential benefit of reducing the risk of costly design changes made later in the design cycle necessary to meet the mission requirements by understanding system design sensitivities early and adding appropriate margins. This paper will describe the approach used by the Mars Science Laboratory Project to accomplish this result.

  13. Itinerant scenario for Fe pnictides: Comparison with quantum Monte Carlo

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chubukov, Andrey V.; Xing, Rui-Qi

    2016-04-01

    Recent applications of quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) technique to Fe-based superconductors opened a way to directly verify the applicability of the itinerant scenario for these systems. Fe-based superconductors undergo various instabilities upon lowering temperature (magnetism, superconductivity, nematicity/orbital order), and one can check whether the hierarchy of instabilities obtained within the itinerant approach is the same as in unbiased QMC simulations. In a recent paper [arXiv:1512.08523] the authors considered the simplest two-band model with interaction tailored to favor orbital order. The type of the orbital order found in QMC is different from the one found in earlier itinerant analysis. We report the results of our calculations within the itinerant scenario and argue that they are in perfect agreement with QMC.

  14. International policy implications of abrupt climate change scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Molitor, M.R.

    1997-12-31

    New theoretical and empirical evidence supports the view that in the recent past [Holocene] abrupt climate changes occurred over very short [decadal] time periods. One leading possibility of future changes involves the North Atlantic Ocean conveyor that transfers warm surface waters from the equator to northern latitudes and helps maintain Europe`s climate. The predicted abrupt climate change scenario theorizes that the conveyor may be modified as a result of disruption of the thermohaline circulation driving North, Atlantic Deep Water. This would lead, the theory contends, to a rapid cooling of Europe`s climate. In light of the EPCC`s 1995 Second Assessment Report conclusion that there is a {open_quotes}discernible{close_quotes} human influence on the global climate system, there are many emerging questions concerning possible abrupt climate change scenarios.

  15. Systems analysis of past, present, and future chemical terrorism scenarios.

    SciTech Connect

    Hoette, Trisha Marie

    2012-03-01

    Throughout history, as new chemical threats arose, strategies for the defense against chemical attacks have also evolved. As a part of an Early Career Laboratory Directed Research and Development project, a systems analysis of past, present, and future chemical terrorism scenarios was performed to understand how the chemical threats and attack strategies change over time. For the analysis, the difficulty in executing chemical attack was evaluated within a framework of three major scenario elements. First, historical examples of chemical terrorism were examined to determine how the use of chemical threats, versus other weapons, contributed to the successful execution of the attack. Using the same framework, the future of chemical terrorism was assessed with respect to the impact of globalization and new technologies. Finally, the efficacy of the current defenses against contemporary chemical terrorism was considered briefly. The results of this analysis justify the need for continued diligence in chemical defense.

  16. Asian water futures - Multi scenarios, models and criteria assessment -

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Satoh, Yusuke; Burek, Peter; Wada, Yoshihide; Flrörke, Martina; Eisner, Stephanie; Hanasaki, Naota; Kahil, Taher; Tramberend, Sylvia; Fischer, Günther; Wiberg, David

    2016-04-01

    A better understanding of the current and future availability of water resources is essential for the implementation of the recently agreed Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Long-term/efficient strategies for coping with current and potential future water-related challenges are urgently required. Although Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) were develop for the impact assessment of climate change, very few assessments have yet used the SSPs to assess water resources. Then the IIASA Water Futures and Solutions Initiative (WFaS), developed a set of water use scenarios consistent with RCPs and SSPs and applying the latest climate changes scenarios. Here this study focuses on results for Asian countries for the period 2010-2050. We present three conceivable future pathways of Asian water resources, determined by feasible combinations of two RCPs and three SSPs. Such a scenario approach provides valuable insights towards identifying appropriate strategies as gaps between a "scenario world" and reality. In addition, for the assessment of future water resources a multi-criteria analysis is applied. A classification system for countries and watershed that consists of two broad dimensions: (i) economic and institutional adaptive capacity, (ii) hydrological complexity. The latter is composed of several sub-indexes including total renewable water resources per capita, the ratio of water demand to renewable water resource, variability of runoff and dependency ratio to external. Furthermore, this analysis uses a multi-model approach to estimate runoff and discharge using 5 GCMs and 5 global hydrological models (GHMs). Three of these GHMs calculate water use based on a consistent set of scenarios in addition to water availability. As a result, we have projected hot spots of water scarcity in Asia and their spatial and temporal change. For example, in a scenario based on SSP2 and RCP6.0, by 2050, in total 2.1 billion people

  17. Medicine in 2035: Selected Insights From ACGME's Scenario Planning.

    PubMed

    Nasca, Thomas J; Thomas, Charles W

    2015-03-01

    The Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) has the responsibility for overseeing the preparation of future physician specialists and subspecialists to serve the American public. To ensure ACGME's ability to adapt and sustain its accreditation activities in a future marked by significant uncertainty, its administration and board of directors embarked on a planning process that would frame its strategic actions in support of this responsibility. We describe the scenario planning process, and report key insights that resulted from it. We also discuss in greater depth a subset of those insights, which challenge certain conventional truths, call for new collaborative directions for the ACGME, and reaffirm the importance of professionalism in service of the public across all future scenarios evaluated. PMID:26217449

  18. Gauge mediation scenario with hidden sector renormalization in MSSM

    SciTech Connect

    Arai, Masato; Okada, Nobuchika

    2010-02-01

    We study the hidden sector effects on the mass renormalization of a simplest gauge-mediated supersymmetry breaking scenario. We point out that possible hidden sector contributions render the soft scalar masses smaller, resulting in drastically different sparticle mass spectrum at low energy. In particular, in the 5+5 minimal gauge-mediated supersymmetry breaking with high messenger scale (that is favored by the gravitino cold dark matter scenario), we show that a stau can be the next lightest superparticle for moderate values of hidden sector self-coupling. This provides a very simple theoretical model of long-lived charged next lightest superparticles, which imply distinctive signals in ongoing and upcoming collider experiments.

  19. Solving and Learning Soft Temporal Constraints: Experimental Scenario and Examples

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rossi, F.; Venable, K. B.; Sperduti, A.; Khatib, L.; Morris, P.; Morris, R.; Koga, Dennis (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Soft temporal constraint problems allow to describe in a natural way scenarios where events happen over time and preferences are associated to event distances and durations. However, sometimes such local preferences are difficult to set, and it may be easier instead to associate preferences to some complete solutions of the problem. To model everything in a uniform way via local preferences only, and also to take advantage of the existing constraint solvers which exploit only local preference use machine learning techniques which learn the local preferences from the global ones. In this paper we describe the existing framework for both solving and learning preferences in temporal constraint problems, the implemented modules, the experimental scenario, and preliminary results on some examples.

  20. Estimating surface faulting impacts from the shakeout scenario earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Treiman, J.A.; Pontib, D.J.

    2011-01-01

    An earthquake scenario, based on a kinematic rupture model, has been prepared for a Mw 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. The rupture distribution, in the context of other historic large earthquakes, is judged reasonable for the purposes of this scenario. This model is used as the basis for generating a surface rupture map and for assessing potential direct impacts on lifelines and other infrastructure. Modeling the surface rupture involves identifying fault traces on which to place the rupture, assigning slip values to the fault traces, and characterizing the specific displacements that would occur to each lifeline impacted by the rupture. Different approaches were required to address variable slip distribution in response to a variety of fault patterns. Our results, involving judgment and experience, represent one plausible outcome and are not predictive because of the variable nature of surface rupture. ?? 2011, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  1. Pattern Scaling for Developing Change Scenarios in Water Supply Studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anandhi, A.; Pierson, D.; Frie, A.

    2014-12-01

    Change factor methodology (CFM), or delta change factor methodology, is a type of pattern scaling. Although a variety of methods are available to develop scenarios, CFMs are widely used for their ease and speed of application and their capability to directly scale local data according to changes suggested by the global climate model (GCM) scenarios. Change factors (CFs) can be calculated and used in a number of ways to estimate future climate scenarios, but no clear guidelines are available in the literature to decide which methodologies are most suitable for different applications. This study compares and contrasts several categories of CFM (additive versus multiplicative and single versus multiple) for a number of climate variables. The study employs several theoretical examples as well as an applied study from the New York City water supply. Results show that in cases where the frequency distribution of the GCM baseline climate is close to the frequency distribution of the observed climate, or when the frequency distribution of the GCM future climate is close to the frequency distribution of the GCM baseline climate, additive and multiplicative single CFMs provide comparable results. Two options to guide the choice of CFM are suggested: the first is a detailed methodological analysis for choosing the most appropriate CFM, and the second is a default method for circumstances in which a detailed methodological analysis is too cumbersome.

  2. Developing seasonal rainfall scenarios for food security early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Husak, Gregory J.; Funk, Christopher C.; Michaelsen, Joel; Magadzire, Tamuka; Goldsberry, Kirk P.

    2013-10-01

    Rainfed agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for 95 % of the local cereal production, impacting hundreds of millions of people. Early identification of poor rainfall conditions is a critical indicator of food security. As such, monitoring accumulated seasonal rainfall gives an important mid-season estimate of final accumulated totals. However, characterizing the remaining uncertainty in a season has largely been ignored by the food security community. This paper presents a new technique describing rainfall conditions over the duration of a crop-growing cycle by combining estimated rainfall-to-date with potential scenarios for the remaining season based on available satellite rainfall estimates, the common tool for rainfall analysis in Africa. The limited historical record provided by satellite rainfall estimates using previous seasons provides only a coarse view of likely seasonal totals. To combat this, scenarios developed by bootstrapping dekadal data to create synthetic seasons allow for a finer understanding of potential seasonal accumulations. Updating this throughout the season shows a narrowing envelope of seasonal totals, converging on the final seasonal result. The resulting scenarios inform the expectations for the final seasonal rainfall accumulation, allowing analysts to quantify and visualize the uncertainty in seasonal totals. Giving decision makers a tool for understanding the likelihood of specific rainfall amounts provides additional time to enact and mobilize efforts to reduce the impact of agricultural drought.

  3. River flood risk in Jakarta under scenarios of future change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Budiyono, Yus; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Tollenaar, Daniel; Ward, Philip J.

    2016-03-01

    Given the increasing impacts of flooding in Jakarta, methods for assessing current and future flood risk are required. In this paper, we use the Damagescanner-Jakarta risk model to project changes in future river flood risk under scenarios of climate change, land subsidence, and land use change. Damagescanner-Jakarta is a simple flood risk model that estimates flood risk in terms of annual expected damage, based on input maps of flood hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. We estimate baseline flood risk at USD 186 million p.a. Combining all future scenarios, we simulate a median increase in risk of +180 % by 2030. The single driver with the largest contribution to that increase is land subsidence (+126 %). We simulated the impacts of climate change by combining two scenarios of sea level rise with simulations of changes in 1-day extreme precipitation totals from five global climate models (GCMs) forced by the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The results are highly uncertain; the median change in risk due to climate change alone by 2030 is a decrease by -46 %, but we simulate an increase in risk under 12 of the 40 GCM-RCP-sea level rise combinations. Hence, we developed probabilistic risk scenarios to account for this uncertainty. If land use change by 2030 takes places according to the official Jakarta Spatial Plan 2030, risk could be reduced by 12 %. However, if land use change in the future continues at the same rate as the last 30 years, large increases in flood risk will take place. Finally, we discuss the relevance of the results for flood risk management in Jakarta.

  4. A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: Scenario matrix architecture

    SciTech Connect

    Van Vuuren, Detlef; Kriegler, Elmar; O'Neill, Brian; Ebi, Kristie L.; Riahi, Keywan; Carter, Tim; Edmonds, James A.; Hallegatte, Stephane; Kram, Tom; Mathur, Ritu; Winkler, Harald

    2014-02-01

    In this paper, we present the scenario matrix architecture as part of the new scenario framework for climate change research. The matrix architecture focuses on a key question of current climate research, namely the identification of trade-offs and synergies (in terms of risks, costs and other consequences) of different adaptation and mitigation strategies. The framework has two main axes: 1) the level of forcing (as represented by the RCPs) and 2) different socio-economic reference pathways. The matrix can be used as a tool to guide new scenario development and analytical analysis. It can also be used as a heuristic tool for classifying new and existing scenarios for assessment. Key elements of the architecture, in particular the shared socio-economic reference pathways and the shared policy assumptions, are elaborated in other papers in this special issue.

  5. Sampling and counting genome rearrangement scenarios

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Background Even for moderate size inputs, there are a tremendous number of optimal rearrangement scenarios, regardless what the model is and which specific question is to be answered. Therefore giving one optimal solution might be misleading and cannot be used for statistical inferring. Statistically well funded methods are necessary to sample uniformly from the solution space and then a small number of samples are sufficient for statistical inferring. Contribution In this paper, we give a mini-review about the state-of-the-art of sampling and counting rearrangement scenarios, focusing on the reversal, DCJ and SCJ models. Above that, we also give a Gibbs sampler for sampling most parsimonious labeling of evolutionary trees under the SCJ model. The method has been implemented and tested on real life data. The software package together with example data can be downloaded from http://www.renyi.hu/~miklosi/SCJ-Gibbs/ PMID:26452124

  6. Occupational health scenario of Indian informal sector

    PubMed Central

    NAG, Anjali; VYAS, Heer; NAG, Pranab

    2016-01-01

    Workers in the Indian informal sector are engaged with different occupations. These occupations involve varied work related hazards. These occupational hazards are a consequent risk to health. The study aimed to determine occupational health scenario in the Indian Informal sector. One thousand eleven hundred twenty two workers from five different occupations namely weaving (handloom and power loom), construction, transportation, tobacco processing and fish processing were assessed by interviewer administered health questionnaire. Workers suffered from musculo-skeletal complaints, respiratory health hazards, eye problems and skin related complaints. There was a high prevalence of self-reported occupational health problems in the selected sectors. The study finds that workers have occupational exposures to multiple hazards. The absence of protective guards aggrevate their health condition. The study attempts to draws an immediate attention on the existing health scenario of the Indian Informal sector. PMID:26903262

  7. River multimodal scenario for rehabilitation robotics.

    PubMed

    Munih, Marko; Novak, Domen; Milavec, Maja; Ziherl, Jaka; Olenšek, Andrej; Mihelj, Matjaž

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the novel "River" multimodal rehabilitation robotics scenario that includes video, audio and haptic modalities. Elements contributing to intrinsic motivation are carefully joined in the three modalities to increase motivation of the user. The user first needs to perform a motor action, then receives a cognitive challenge that is solved with adequate motor activity. Audio includes environmental sounds, music and spoken instructions or encouraging statements. Sounds and music were classified according to the arousal-valence space. The haptic modality can provide catching, grasping, tunnel or adaptive assistance, all depending on the user's needs. The scenario was evaluated in 16 stroke users, who responded to it favourably according to the Intrinsic Motivation Inventory questionnaire. Additionally, the river multimodal environment seems to elicit higher motivation than a simpler apple pick-and-place multimodal task. PMID:22275619

  8. Occupational health scenario of Indian informal sector.

    PubMed

    Nag, Anjali; Vyas, Heer; Nag, Pranab

    2016-08-01

    Workers in the Indian informal sector are engaged with different occupations. These occupations involve varied work related hazards. These occupational hazards are a consequent risk to health. The study aimed to determine occupational health scenario in the Indian Informal sector. One thousand eleven hundred twenty two workers from five different occupations namely weaving (handloom and power loom), construction, transportation, tobacco processing and fish processing were assessed by interviewer administered health questionnaire. Workers suffered from musculo-skeletal complaints, respiratory health hazards, eye problems and skin related complaints. There was a high prevalence of self-reported occupational health problems in the selected sectors. The study finds that workers have occupational exposures to multiple hazards. The absence of protective guards aggrevate their health condition. The study attempts to draws an immediate attention on the existing health scenario of the Indian Informal sector. PMID:26903262

  9. The hexagon hypothesis: Six disruptive scenarios.

    PubMed

    Burtles, Jim

    2015-01-01

    This paper aims to bring a simple but effective and comprehensive approach to the development, delivery and monitoring of business continuity solutions. To ensure that the arguments and principles apply across the board, the paper sticks to basic underlying concepts rather than sophisticated interpretations. First, the paper explores what exactly people are defending themselves against. Secondly, the paper looks at how defences should be set up. Disruptive events tend to unfold in phases, each of which invites a particular style of protection, ranging from risk management through to business continuity to insurance cover. Their impact upon any business operation will fall into one of six basic scenarios. The hexagon hypothesis suggests that everyone should be prepared to deal with each of these six disruptive scenarios and it provides them with a useful benchmark for business continuity. PMID:26420396

  10. Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W.

    1995-12-31

    This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenarios for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios by applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained will be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example. The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic (common sense) approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities.

  11. Toward predictive scenarios of planetary migration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baruteau, Clement

    2008-10-01

    The detection over the past fifteen years of planets orbiting stars other than the Sun, the exoplanets, has provided an exciting opportunity to test our theories of planet formation and evolution. An impressive result inferred from the observations is the significant proportion of exoplanets having a mass comparable to that of Jupiter, and located much closer to their star than Mercury is from our own Sun! These exoplanets, known as the Hot Jupiters, are probably built up from an solid core, so they are unlikely to have formed where they are detected. They should rather have formed further out in the disc, where temperatures are more favorable to their growth. One then needs to explain how planets could move closer to their host star. Remarkably enough, such an explanation was proposed well before the discovery of the first exoplanet. It considered the interaction between a planet and the protoplanetary disc, which leads to a decrease of the planet's semi-major axis. Planets should progressively spiral toward their central star. This is known as planetary migration. Before the beginning of my thesis, many analytical and numerical studies have shown that the migration timescale of low-mass planets is much shorter than the lifetime of the protoplanetary disc. All planets should therefore have migrated to the vicinity of their host star! This is at least in contradiction with the locations of the planets in our Solar System. In order to elaborate predictive scenarios of planet formation and evolution, it is of primary interest to refine our understanding of disc-planet interactions. The inclusion of the disc self-gravity is an illustration of this. With analytical and numerical arguments, we show that discarding the self-gravity leads to a significant overestimate of the differential Lindblad torque for migrating low-mass planets. Another aspect explored in this thesis is the impact of the gas thermodynamics on migration. We show that the thermodynamic evolution of

  12. Scenarios of physics beyond the standard model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fok, Ricky

    This dissertation discusses three topics on scenarios beyond the Standard Model. Topic one is the effects from a fourth generation of quarks and leptons on electroweak baryogenesis in the early universe. The Standard Model is incapable of electroweak baryogenesis due to an insufficiently strong enough electroweak phase transition (EWPT) as well as insufficient CP violation. We show that the presence of heavy fourth generation fermions solves the first problem but requires additional bosons to be included to stabilize the electroweak vacuum. Introducing supersymmetric partners of the heavy fermions, we find that the EWPT can be made strong enough and new sources of CP violation are present. Topic two relates to the lepton avor problem in supersymmetry. In the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM), the off-diagonal elements in the slepton mass matrix must be suppressed at the 10-3 level to avoid experimental bounds from lepton avor changing processes. This dissertation shows that an enlarged R-parity can alleviate the lepton avor problem. An analysis of all sensitive parameters was performed in the mass range below 1 TeV, and we find that slepton maximal mixing is possible without violating bounds from the lepton avor changing processes: mu → egamma; mu → e conversion, and mu → 3e. Topic three is the collider phenomenology of quirky dark matter. In this model, quirks are particles that are gauged under the electroweak group, as well as a dark" color SU(2) group. The hadronization scale of this color group is well below the quirk masses. As a result, the dark color strings never break. Quirk and anti-quirk pairs can be produced at the LHC. Once produced, they immediately form a bound state of high angular momentum. The quirk pair rapidly shed angular momentum by emitting soft radiation before they annihilate into observable signals. This dissertation presents the decay branching ratios of quirkonia where quirks obtain their masses through electroweak

  13. The use of scenario analysis in local public health departments: alternative futures for strategic planning.

    PubMed Central

    Venable, J M; Ma, Q L; Ginter, P M; Duncan, W J

    1993-01-01

    Scenario analysis is a strategic planning technique used to describe and evaluate an organization's external environment. A methodology for conducting scenario analysis using the Jefferson County Department of Health and the national, State, and county issues confronting it is outlined. Key health care and organizational issues were identified using published sources, focus groups, questionnaires, and personal interviews. The most important of these issues were selected by asking health department managers to evaluate the issues according to their probability of occurrence and likely impact on the health department. The high-probability, high-impact issues formed the basis for developing scenario logics that constitute the story line holding the scenario together. The results were a set of plausible scenarios that aided in strategic planning, encouraged strategic thinking among managers, eliminated or reduced surprise about environmental changes, and improved managerial discussion and communication. PMID:8265754

  14. Software Requirements Specification: Multi-scale Epidemiological and Economic Simulation and Analysis (MESA) Scenario Bank

    SciTech Connect

    Dahlgren, T L; Hazlett, S G; Slone, D M; Smith, S G

    2006-11-08

    This document builds on the discussion notes from September 21, 2006. It provides a summary of the ideas relating to the scenario bank tables and their associated requirements. Two conceptual groupings were identified for the contents requirements of the scenario bank. The first, called ProjectTemplate, shall consist of Scenarios, and Miscellaneous Files> groups. The second, ProjectArchive, shall consist of groups of Scenarios, Results, and Miscellaneous Files>. The figure below illustrates the multiplicity of the associations between the different tables, with color coding used to distinguish between current MESA (brown) and USDA (light green) requirements. Scenario bank tables are shown in black with their general contents specified within the box. The metadata associated with each table is expected to include database key information as well as relevant timestamps. Each File is expected to be a file with an arbitrary format.

  15. Electroweak Gauge-Higgs Unification Scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Hosotani, Yutaka

    2008-11-23

    In the gauge-Higgs unification scenario 4D Higgs fields are unified with gauge fields in higher dimensions. The electroweak model is constructed in the Randall-Sundrum warped space. The electroweak symmetry is dynamically broken by the Hosotani mechanism due to the top quark contribution. The Higgs mass is predicted to be around 50 GeV with the vanishing ZZH and WWH couplings so that the LEP2 bound for the Higgs mass is evaded.

  16. Probabilistic Climate Scenario Information for Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dairaku, K.; Ueno, G.; Takayabu, I.

    2014-12-01

    Climate information and services for Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (IAV) Assessments are of great concern. In order to develop probabilistic regional climate information that represents the uncertainty in climate scenario experiments in Japan, we compared the physics ensemble experiments using the 60km global atmospheric model of the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI-AGCM) with multi-model ensemble experiments with global atmospheric-ocean coupled models (CMIP3) of SRES A1b scenario experiments. The MRI-AGCM shows relatively good skills particularly in tropics for temperature and geopotential height. Variability in surface air temperature of physical ensemble experiments with MRI-AGCM was within the range of one standard deviation of the CMIP3 model in the Asia region. On the other hand, the variability of precipitation was relatively well represented compared with the variation of the CMIP3 models. Models which show the similar reproducibility in the present climate shows different future climate change. We couldn't find clear relationships between present climate and future climate change in temperature and precipitation. We develop a new method to produce probabilistic information of climate change scenarios by weighting model ensemble experiments based on a regression model (Krishnamurti et al., Science, 1999). The method can be easily applicable to other regions and other physical quantities, and also to downscale to finer-scale dependent on availability of observation dataset. The prototype of probabilistic information in Japan represents the quantified structural uncertainties of multi-model ensemble experiments of climate change scenarios. Acknowledgments: This study was supported by the SOUSEI Program, funded by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Government of Japan.

  17. A tilted cold dark matter cosmological scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cen, Renyue; Gnedin, Nickolay Y.; Kofman, Lev A.; Ostriker, Jeremiah P.

    1992-01-01

    A new cosmological scenario based on CDM but with a power spectrum index of about 0.7-0.8 is suggested. This model is predicted by various inflationary models with no fine tuning. This tilted CDM model, if normalized to COBE, alleviates many problems of the standard CDM model related to both small-scale and large-scale power. A physical bias of galaxies over dark matter of about two is required to fit spatial observations.

  18. Glacial CO2 Cycles: A Composite Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Broecker, W. S.

    2015-12-01

    There are three main contributors to the glacial drawdown of atmospheric CO2 content: starvation of the supply of carbon to the ocean-atmosphere reservoir, excess CO2 storage in the deep sea, and surface-ocean cooling. In this talk, I explore a scenario in which all three play significant roles. Key to this scenario is the assumption that deep ocean storage is related to the extent of nutrient stratification of the deep Atlantic. The stronger this stratification, the larger the storage of respiration CO2. Further, it is my contention that the link between Milankovitch insolation cycles and climate is reorganizations of the ocean's thermohaline circulation leading to changes in the deep ocean's CO2 storage. If this is the case, the deep Atlantic d13C record kept in benthic foraminifera shells tells us that deep ocean CO2 storage follows Northern Hemisphere summer insolation cycles and thus lacks the downward ramp so prominent in the records of sea level, benthic 18O and CO2. Rather, the ramp is created by the damping of planetary CO2 emissions during glacial time intervals. As it is premature to present a specific scenario, I provide an example as to how these three contributors might be combined. As their magnitudes and shapes remain largely unconstrained, the intent of this exercise is to provoke creative thinking.

  19. CP violation in heavy MSSM Higgs scenarios

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Carena, M.; Ellis, J.; Lee, J. S.; Pilaftsis, A.; Wagner, C. E. M.

    2016-02-18

    We introduce and explore new heavy Higgs scenarios in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM) with explicit CP violation, which have important phenomenological implications that may be testable at the LHC. For soft supersymmetry-breaking scales MS above a few TeV and a charged Higgs boson mass MH+ above a few hundred GeV, new physics effects including those from explicit CP violation decouple from the light Higgs boson sector. However, such effects can significantly alter the phenomenology of the heavy Higgs bosons while still being consistent with constraints from low-energy observables, for instance electric dipole moments. To consider scenarios with amore » charged Higgs boson much heavier than the Standard Model (SM) particles but much lighter than the supersymmetric particles, we revisit previous calculations of the MSSM Higgs sector. We compute the Higgs boson masses in the presence of CP violating phases, implementing improved matching and renormalization-group (RG) effects, as well as two-loop RG effects from the effective two-Higgs Doublet Model (2HDM) scale MH± to the scale MS. Here, we illustrate the possibility of non-decoupling CP-violating effects in the heavy Higgs sector using new benchmark scenarios named.« less

  20. Modelling Changes to Crop Yield Under Climate Change Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gerber, J. S.; Deryng, D.; Ray, D. K.; Mueller, N. D.; Foley, J. A.; Ramankutty, N.

    2010-12-01

    This paper presents two sets of quantitative predictions for global soy and maize yields under changes to temperature and precipitation. The climatic changes considered are based on IPCC scenarios A1B and B1 as calculated with a variety of GCMs. One set of crop yield predictions is calculated with the process-based PEGASUS model, the other is based on an empirical climate-analog approach. The core of PEGASUS is a simple global surface energy, water, and carbon balance model. In addition, PEGASUS simulates planting dates and optimum cultivars at different locations of the world, allocates carbon to a grain pool, and uses an empirical relationship to estimate the influence of fertilizer application. In the empirical climate analog approach, recently published global data sets are used to empirically determine maximum attainable (potential) crop yields for a given set of climatic and soil conditions. Farmers are then quantified by their abilities to reach potential yields and as new climatically-limited potential yields obtain under climate change scenarios, farmers’ yields are assumed to evolve proportionally. Preliminary results indicate that global average yields in the future are sensitive to the climate model used to generate the future climate. However, all models indicate a decrease in yields under climate scenarios A1B and B1.

  1. Biomethane production system: Energetic analysis of various scenarios.

    PubMed

    Wu, Bin; Zhang, Xiangping; Bao, Di; Xu, Yajing; Zhang, Suojiang; Deng, Liyuan

    2016-04-01

    The energy consumption models of biomethane production system were established, which are more rigorous and universal than the empirical data reported by previous biomethane system energetic assessment work. The energy efficiencies of different scenarios considering factors such as two digestion modes, two heating modes of digester, with or without heat exchange between slurry and feedstock, and four crude biogas upgrading technologies were evaluated. Results showed the scenario employing thermophilic digestion and high pressure water scrubbing technology, with heat exchange between feedstock and slurry, and heat demand of digester supplied by the energy source outside the system has the highest energy efficiency (46.5%) and lowest energy consumption (13.46 MJth/Nm(3) CH4), while scenario employing mesophilic digestion and pressure swing adsorption technology, without heat exchange and heat demand of digester supplied by combusting the biogas produced inside the system has the lowest energy efficiency (15.8%) and highest energy consumption (34.90 MJth/Nm(3) CH4). PMID:26855289

  2. Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework.

    PubMed

    Merriam, Eric R; Petty, J Todd; Strager, Michael P

    2016-01-01

    There is a critical need for tools and methodologies capable of managing aquatic systems within heavily impacted watersheds. Current efforts often fall short as a result of an inability to quantify and predict complex cumulative effects of current and future land use scenarios at relevant spatial scales. The goal of this manuscript is to provide methods for conducting a targeted watershed assessment that enables resource managers to produce landscape-based cumulative effects models for use within a scenario analysis management framework. Sites are first selected for inclusion within the watershed assessment by identifying sites that fall along independent gradients and combinations of known stressors. Field and laboratory techniques are then used to obtain data on the physical, chemical, and biological effects of multiple land use activities. Multiple linear regression analysis is then used to produce landscape-based cumulative effects models for predicting aquatic conditions. Lastly, methods for incorporating cumulative effects models within a scenario analysis framework for guiding management and regulatory decisions (e.g., permitting and mitigation) within actively developing watersheds are discussed and demonstrated for 2 sub-watersheds within the mountaintop mining region of central Appalachia. The watershed assessment and management approach provided herein enables resource managers to facilitate economic and development activity while protecting aquatic resources and producing opportunity for net ecological benefits through targeted remediation. PMID:27501287

  3. On the hadronic cascade scenario for extreme BL Lacs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tavecchio, Fabrizio

    2014-03-01

    The peculiar high-energy emission spectrum of the so-called extreme BL Lacs (EHBL) challenges the standard emission models of blazars. Among the possible solutions, the so-called hadronic cascade scenario assumes that the observed high-energy radiation is produced in the intergalactic space through photo-hadronic reactions by ultra-high energy cosmic rays (UHECR) with energies up to 1019-20 eV beamed by the blazar jet. Under the assumption - implicit in this model - that the intrinsic high-energy synchrotron self-Compton emission of the blazar does not substantially contribute to the observed γ-ray spectrum, we derive constraints to the basic physical quantities of the jet and we compare them with the requirements of the hadronic cascade scenario. We found that, for a plausible range of relativistic jet Doppler factors (δ = 10-50), the maximum achievable energy of the accelerated protons can exceed 2 × 1019 eV with jet powers of the order of ≈1044 erg s-1, parameters compatible with the requests of the hadronic scenario even if EHBL are embedded in magnetic fields of cosmic filaments. We also discuss the consequences of our results for the possibility that local EHBL contribute to the observed UHECR.

  4. Deforestation scenarios for the Bolivian lowlands.

    PubMed

    Tejada, Graciela; Dalla-Nora, Eloi; Cordoba, Diana; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Ovando, Alex; Assis, Talita; Aguiar, Ana Paula

    2016-01-01

    Tropical forests in South America play a key role in the provision of ecosystem services such as carbon sinks, biodiversity conservation, and global climate regulation. In previous decades, Bolivian forests have mainly been deforested by the expansion of agricultural frontier development, driven by the growing demands for beef and other productions. In the mid-2000s the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party rose to power in Bolivia with the promise of promoting an alternative development model that would respect the environment. The party passed the world's first laws granting rights to the environment, which they termed Mother Earth (Law No. 300 of 2012), and proposed an innovative framework that was expected to develop radical new conservation policies. The MAS conservationist discourse, policies, and productive practices, however, have since been in permanent tension. The government continues to guarantee food production through neo-extractivist methods by promoting the notion to expand agriculture from 3 to 13 million ha, risking the tropical forests and their ecosystem services. These actions raise major environmental and social concerns, as the potential impacts of such interventions are still unknown. The objective of this study is to explore an innovative land use modeling approach to simulate how the growing demand for land could affect future deforestation trends in Bolivia. We use the LuccME framework to create a spatially-explicit land cover change model and run it under three different deforestation scenarios, spanning from the present-2050. In the Sustainability scenario, deforestation reaches 17,703,786 ha, notably in previously deforested or degraded areas, while leaving forest extensions intact. In the Middle of the road scenario, deforestation and degradation move toward new or paved roads spreading across 25,698,327 ha in 2050, while intact forests are located in Protected Areas (PAs). In the Fragmentation scenario, deforestation expands to almost

  5. Climate impacts of the ECLIPSE future emissions mitigation scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baker, Laura; Collins, Bill; Olivie, Dirk; Cherian, Ribu; Quaas, Johannes; Myhre, Gunnar; Hodnebrog, Oivind; Skeie, Ragnhild

    2016-04-01

    We investigate the possible near-term climate benefits from mitigating aerosols, ozone and methane. The ECLIPSE (Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants) project developed a realistic emissions inventory based on current legislation for 2005-2050 (CLE), and a corresponding mitigation scenario designed to be beneficial for both air quality and short-term climate impact (MIT). We determine the climate impacts of the MIT scenario, focussing on the period 2040-2050. Four climate models with interactive chemistry and aerosols (HadGEM, NorESM, CESM-CAM4 and ECHAM-HAM) are used to provide multi-model ensembles of both atmosphere-only and coupled atmosphere-ocean simulations, to separate the effective radiative forcing (ERF) and the climate response. The ERFs are derived from the atmosphere-only simulations. In all models the MIT scenario leads to a negative global ERF which is driven mainly by methane emissions reductions. There is variability between models in the relative importance of methane and aerosol emissions reductions, and in the sign of ERF response to aerosol emissions reductions. The climate response to MIT is derived from the coupled simulations. In all models, MIT results in a decrease in the global mean temperature compared to CLE, with a model mean decrease of 0.22°C. The temperature decrease is seen most strongly in the Northern Hemisphere and is particularly strong in the Arctic. The ensembles of coupled-ocean simulations have therefore enabled us to identify a robust cooling signal from the air quality mitigation scenarios, which can be attributed to the different species using the ERFs.

  6. Possible climate change over Eurasia under different emission scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sokolov, A. P.; Monier, E.; Scott, J. R.; Forest, C. E.; Schlosser, C. A.

    2011-12-01

    In an attempt to evaluate possible climate change over EURASIA, we analyze results of six AMIP type simulations with CAM version 3 (CAM3) at 2x2.5 degree resolution. CAM3 is driven by time series of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice obtained by running the MIT IGSM2.3, which consists of a 3D ocean GCM coupled to a zonally-averaged atmospheric climate-chemistry model. In addition to changes in SSTs, CAM3 is forced by changes in greenhouse gases and ozone concentrations, sulfate aerosol forcing and black carbon loading calculated by the IGSM2.3. An essential feature of the IGSM is the possibility to vary its climate sensitivity (using a cloud adjustment technique) and the strength of the aerosol forcing. For consistency, new modules were developed in CAM3 to modify its climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing to match those used in the simulations with the IGSM2.3. The simulations presented in this paper were carried out for two emission scenarios, a "Business as usual" scenario and a 660 ppm of CO2-EQ stabilization, which are similar to the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, respectively. Values of climate sensitivity used in the simulations within the IGSM-CAM framework are median and the bounds of the 90% probability interval of the probability distribution obtained by comparing the 20th century climate simulated by different versions of the IGSM with observations. The associated strength of the aerosol forcing was chosen to ensure a good agreement with the observed climate change over the 20th century. Because the concentration of sulfate aerosol significantly decreases over the 21st century in both emissions scenarios, climate changes obtained in these simulations provide a good approximation for the median, and the 5th and 95th percentiles of the probability distribution of 21st century climate change.

  7. Possible climate change over Eurasia under different emission scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sokolov, A. P.; Monier, E.; Gao, X.

    2012-12-01

    In an attempt to evaluate possible climate change over EURASIA, we analyze results of six AMIP type simulations with CAM version 3 (CAM3) at 2x2.5 degree resolution. CAM3 is driven by time series of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice obtained by running the MIT IGSM2.3, which consists of a 3D ocean GCM coupled to a zonally-averaged atmospheric climate-chemistry model. In addition to changes in SSTs, CAM3 is forced by changes in greenhouse gases and ozone concentrations, sulfate aerosol forcing and black carbon loading calculated by the IGSM2.3. An essential feature of the IGSM is the possibility to vary its climate sensitivity (using a cloud adjustment technique) and the strength of the aerosol forcing. For consistency, new modules were developed in CAM3 to modify its climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing to match those used in the simulations with the IGSM2.3. The simulations presented in this paper were carried out for two emission scenarios, a "Business as usual" scenario and a 660 ppm of CO2-EQ stabilization, which are similar to the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, respectively. Values of climate sensitivity used in the simulations within the IGSM-CAM framework are median and the bounds of the 90% probability interval of the probability distribution obtained by comparing the 20th century climate simulated by different versions of the IGSM with observations. The associated strength of the aerosol forcing was chosen to ensure a good agreement with the observed climate change over the 20th century. Because the concentration of sulfate aerosol significantly decreases over the 21st century in both emissions scenarios, climate changes obtained in these simulations provide a good approximation for the median, and the 5th and 95th percentiles of the probability distribution of 21st century climate change.

  8. Emissions from international shipping: 2. Impact of future technologies on scenarios until 2050

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eyring, V.; KöHler, H. W.; Lauer, A.; Lemper, B.

    2005-09-01

    In this study the today's fleet-average emission factors of the most important ship exhausts are used to calculate emission scenarios for the future. To develop plausible future technology scenarios, first upcoming regulations and compliance with future regulations through technological improvements are discussed. We present geographically resolved emission inventory scenarios until 2050, based on a mid-term prognosis for 2020 and a long-term prognosis for 2050. The scenarios are based on some very strict assumptions on future ship traffic demands and technological improvements. The four future ship traffic demand scenarios are mainly determined by the economic growth, which follows the IPCC SRES storylines. The resulting fuel consumption is projected through extrapolations of historical trends in economic growth, total seaborne trade and number of ships, as well as the average installed power per ship. For the future technology scenarios we assume a diesel-only fleet in 2020 resulting in fuel consumption between 382 and 409 million metric tons (Mt). For 2050 one technology scenario assumes that 25% of the fuel consumed by a diesel-only fleet can be saved by applying future alternative propulsion plants, resulting in a fuel consumption that varies between 402 and 543 Mt. The other scenario is a business-as-usual scenario for a diesel-only fleet even in 2050 and gives an estimate between 536 and 725 Mt. Dependent on how rapid technology improvements for diesel engines are introduced, possible technology reduction factors are applied to the today's fleet-average emission factors of all important species to estimate future ship emissions. Combining the four traffic demand scenarios with the four technology scenarios, our results suggest emissions between 8.8 and 25.0 Tg (NO2) in 2020, and between 3.1 to 38.8 Tg (NO2) in 2050. The development of forecast scenarios for CO2, NOx, SOx, CO, hydrocarbons, and particulate matter is driven by the requirements for global model

  9. Modelling regional climate change and urban planning scenarios and their impacts on the urban environment in two cities with WRF-ACASA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Falk, M.; Pyles, R. D.; Marras, S.; Spano, D.; Paw U, K. T.

    2011-12-01

    The number of urban metabolism studies has increased in recent years, due to the important impact that energy, water and carbon exchange over urban areas have on climate change. Urban modeling is therefore crucial in the future design and management of cities. This study presents the ACASA model coupled to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) mesoscale model to simulate urban fluxes at a horizontal resolution of 200 meters for urban areas of roughly 100 km^2. As part of the European Project "BRIDGE", these regional simulations were used in combination with remotely sensed data to provide constraints on the land surface types and the exchange of carbon and energy fluxes from urban centers. Surface-atmosphere exchanges of mass and energy were simulated using the Advanced Canopy Atmosphere Soil Algorithm (ACASA). ACASA is a multi-layer high-order closure model, recently modified to work over natural, agricultural as well as urban environments. In particular, improvements were made to account for the anthropogenic contribution to heat and carbon production. For two cities four climate change and four urban planning scenarios were simulated: The climate change scenarios include a base scenario (Sc0: 2008 Commit in IPCC), a medium emission scenario (Sc1: IPCC A2), a worst case emission scenario (Sce2: IPCC A1F1) and finally a best case emission scenario (Sce3: IPCC B1). The urban planning scenarios include different development scenarios such as smart growth. The two cities are a high latitude city, Helsinki (Finland) and an historic city, Florence (Italy). Helsinki is characterized by recent, rapid urbanization that requires a substantial amount of energy for heating, while Florence is representative of cities in lower latitudes, with substantial cultural heritage and a comparatively constant architectural footprint over time. In general, simulated fluxes matched the point observations well and showed consistent improvement in the energy partitioning over

  10. Behavioral and neuroimaging responses induced by mental imagery of threatening scenarios.

    PubMed

    Shuhama, Rosana; Rondinoni, Carlo; de Araujo, Draulio Barros; de Freitas Caetano, Gustavo; Dos Santos, Antonio Carlos; Graeff, Frederico Guilherme; Del-Ben, Cristina Marta

    2016-10-15

    Functional neuroimaging studies have shown that actual situations of uncertain or distant threats increase the activity of forebrain regions, whereas proximal threats increase the activity of the dorsal midbrain. This experiment aimed at testing the hypothesis that brain activity elicited by imagined scenarios of threats with two different magnitudes, potential and imminent, resembles that found in response to actual threats. First, we measured subjective responses to imagined scenarios of potential and imminent threats compared with neutral and pleasant scenarios. The same scenarios were used as a paradigm in a functional magnetic resonance imaging experiment. Behavioral results show that the scenarios draw a gradient of hedonic valence and arousal dimensions. Both potential and imminent threat scenarios increased subjective anxiety; the imminent threat scenario also increased feelings of discomfort and bodily symptoms. The functional magnetic resonance imaging results revealed modulations of BOLD signal in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex by potential threat and in the periaqueductal gray matter by imminent threat. These results agree with previously reported evidence using actual threat situations, indicating that mental imagery is a reliable method for studying the functional neuroanatomy of relevant behavioral processes. PMID:27452804

  11. A Global Water Resources Assessment under RCP, SSP, and CMIP5 Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hanasaki, N.; Fujimori, S.

    2012-12-01

    A number of reports have been published on climate change impact assessment on global water resources, but earlier studies need to be updated and refined due to three reasons. First, most of earlier studies were based on an old set of IPCC scenarios consists of SRES (green house gas (GHG) emission and socio-economic scenarios) and CMIP3 (climate scenarios consistent with SRES). A new set of IPCC scenarios is being released (Moss et al., 2008) that consists of RCP (GHG emission scenario), SSP (socio-economic scenario), and CMIP5 (climate scenarios consistent with RCP). In order to take the latest achievements in climate modeling, impact assessments should be based on the new scenario. Second, most of earlier studies focused more on the change in water availability (e.g. runoff and discharge), less for change in water use (agricultural, industrial, domestic water use). Because SSP consists of five scenarios delineating substantially different world, water use scenarios should be developed with care reflecting the difference among them. Third, most of earlier studies assessed water availability and use at annual time resolution. This may overlook seasonal and inter-annual shortage of water due to variability in water availability and use. Here we present a novel assessment on global water resources using a global water resources model called H08 (Hanasaki et al., 2008a,b; 2010). H08 simulates natural water cycle and major human activities, such as water withdrawals and reservoir operation. It estimates water availability and use at daily time interval, which enables to take sub-annual water shortage into account. We first developed water use scenarios for agricultural (irrigation), industrial, and domestic water withdrawal that are consistent with five SSP scenarios. Next, we set up a matrix of scenario combination of RCP, SSP, and CMIP5 for insightful global water resources assessment. Finally we conducted H08 simulation using these scenarios and assessed water

  12. Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Yu, Wenjun; Ge, Yingchun

    2016-02-01

    This study quantified the hydrological responses to land-use change scenarios in the upper and middle Heihe River basin (HRB), northwest China, under constant and changed climatic conditions by combining a land-use/cover change model (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects, Dyna-CLUE) and a hydrological model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT). Five land-use change scenarios, i.e., historical trend (HT), ecological protection (EP), strict ecological protection (SEP), economic development (ED), and rapid economic development (RED) scenarios, were established. Under constant climatic condition, hydrological variations are only induced by land-use changes in different scenarios. The changes in mean streamflow at the outlets of the upper and the middle HRB are not pronounced, although the different scenarios produce different outcomes. However, more pronounced changes are observed on a subbasin level. The frequency of extreme flood is projected to decrease under the SEP scenario, while under the other scenarios, no changes can be found. Two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) of three general circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM3, and CCSM3) were employed to generate future possible climatic conditions. Under changed climatic condition, hydrological variations are induced by the combination of land-use and climatic changes. The results indicate that the impacts of land-use changes become secondary when the changed climatic conditions have been considered. The frequencies of extreme flood and drought are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under all climate scenarios. Although some agreements can be reached, pronounced difference of hydrological responses can be observed for different climate scenarios of different GCMs. PMID:26429363

  13. An exploration of scenarios to support sustainable land management using integrated environmental socio-economic models.

    PubMed

    Fleskens, L; Nainggolan, D; Stringer, L C

    2014-11-01

    Scenario analysis constitutes a valuable deployment method for scientific models to inform environmental decision-making, particularly for evaluating land degradation mitigation options, which are rarely based on formal analysis. In this paper we demonstrate such an assessment using the PESERA-DESMICE modeling framework with various scenarios for 13 global land degradation hotspots. Starting with an initial assessment representing land degradation and productivity under current conditions, options to combat instances of land degradation are explored by determining: (1) Which technologies are most biophysically appropriate and most financially viable in which locations; we term these the "technology scenarios"; (2) how policy instruments such as subsidies influence upfront investment requirements and financial viability and how they lead to reduced levels of land degradation; we term these the "policy scenarios"; and (3) how technology adoption affects development issues such as food production and livelihoods; we term these the "global scenarios". Technology scenarios help choose the best technology for a given area in biophysical and financial terms, thereby outlining where policy support may be needed to promote adoption; policy scenarios assess whether a policy alternative leads to a greater extent of technology adoption; while global scenarios demonstrate how implementing technologies may serve wider sustainable development goals. Scenarios are applied to assess spatial variation within study sites as well as to compare across different sites. Our results show significant scope to combat land degradation and raise agricultural productivity at moderate cost. We conclude that scenario assessment can provide informative input to multi-level land management decision-making processes. PMID:24263675

  14. Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Yu, Wenjun; Ge, Yingchun

    2016-02-01

    This study quantified the hydrological responses to land-use change scenarios in the upper and middle Heihe River basin (HRB), northwest China, under constant and changed climatic conditions by combining a land-use/cover change model (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects, Dyna-CLUE) and a hydrological model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT). Five land-use change scenarios, i.e., historical trend (HT), ecological protection (EP), strict ecological protection (SEP), economic development (ED), and rapid economic development (RED) scenarios, were established. Under constant climatic condition, hydrological variations are only induced by land-use changes in different scenarios. The changes in mean streamflow at the outlets of the upper and the middle HRB are not pronounced, although the different scenarios produce different outcomes. However, more pronounced changes are observed on a subbasin level. The frequency of extreme flood is projected to decrease under the SEP scenario, while under the other scenarios, no changes can be found. Two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) of three general circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM3, and CCSM3) were employed to generate future possible climatic conditions. Under changed climatic condition, hydrological variations are induced by the combination of land-use and climatic changes. The results indicate that the impacts of land-use changes become secondary when the changed climatic conditions have been considered. The frequencies of extreme flood and drought are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under all climate scenarios. Although some agreements can be reached, pronounced difference of hydrological responses can be observed for different climate scenarios of different GCMs.

  15. Jet aircraft engine exhaust emissions database development: Year 1990 and 2015 scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Landau, Z. Harry; Metwally, Munir; Vanalstyne, Richard; Ward, Clay A.

    1994-01-01

    Studies relating to environmental emissions associated with the High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) military jet and charter jet aircraft were conducted by McDonnell Douglas Aerospace Transport Aircraft. The report includes engine emission results for baseline 1990 charter and military scenario and the projected jet engine emissions results for a 2015 scenario for a Mach 1.6 HSCT charter and military fleet. Discussions of the methodology used in formulating these databases are provided.

  16. Simulating climate change scenarios using an improved K-nearest neighbor model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharif, Mohammed; Burn, Donald H.

    2006-06-01

    An improved weather-generating model that allows nearest neighbour resampling with perturbation of the historic data is applied to generate weather data based upon plausible climate scenarios. The intent is to create an ensemble of climate scenarios that can be used for the assessment of the vulnerability of a watershed to extreme events, including both floods and droughts. Analysis of the results clearly indicates that the model adequately simulated extreme unprecedented events for five different climate change scenarios. Based on the simulation results, the increasing precipitation scenario is identified as the critical scenario for the assessment of risks associated with the occurrence of floods in the basin. The increasing temperature scenario appears to be the critical scenario for the analysis of droughts in the basin. Frequency analysis was carried out to determine the impact of potential climatic change on the occurrence of storm depths of any given magnitude. A promising potential application of the model is in rainfall-runoff modelling where the storms depths could be related to the occurrence of extreme events in the basin. The proposed model, in conjunction with a rainfall-runoff model, has the potential of providing valuable aid in developing efficient management strategies for a watershed. The model produces spatially correlated data, which is crucial for accurate runoff estimation. Although the model is applied to the Upper Thames River Basin in the Canadian province of Ontario, it is generic and transportable to any other watershed with minimal changes.

  17. Inventories and scenarios of nitrous oxide emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davidson, Eric A.; Kanter, David

    2014-10-01

    Effective mitigation for N2O emissions, now the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas and the largest remaining anthropogenic source of stratospheric ozone depleting substances, requires understanding of the sources and how they may increase this century. Here we update estimates and their uncertainties for current anthropogenic and natural N2O emissions and for emissions scenarios to 2050. Although major uncertainties remain, ‘bottom-up’ inventories and ‘top-down’ atmospheric modeling yield estimates that are in broad agreement. Global natural N2O emissions are most likely between 10 and 12 Tg N2O-N yr-1. Net anthropogenic N2O emissions are now about 5.3 Tg N2O-N yr-1. Gross anthropogenic emissions by sector are 66% from agriculture, 15% from energy and transport sectors, 11% from biomass burning, and 8% from other sources. A decrease in natural emissions from tropical soils due to deforestation reduces gross anthropogenic emissions by about 14%. Business-as-usual emission scenarios project almost a doubling of anthropogenic N2O emissions by 2050. In contrast, concerted mitigation scenarios project an average decline of 22% relative to 2005, which would lead to a near stabilization of atmospheric concentration of N2O at about 350 ppb. The impact of growing demand for biofuels on future projections of N2O emissions is highly uncertain; N2O emissions from second and third generation biofuels could remain trivial or could become the most significant source to date. It will not be possible to completely eliminate anthropogenic N2O emissions from agriculture, but better matching of crop N needs and N supply offers significant opportunities for emission reductions.

  18. Riparian vegetation structure under desertification scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosário Fernandes, M.; Segurado, Pedro; Jauch, Eduardo; Ferreira, M. Teresa

    2015-04-01

    Riparian areas are responsible for many ecological and ecosystems services, including the filtering function, that are considered crucial to the preservation of water quality and social benefits. The main goal of this study is to quantify and understand the riparian variability under desertification scenario(s) and identify the optimal riparian indicators for water scarcity and droughts (WS&D), henceforth improving river basin management. This study was performed in the Iberian Tâmega basin, using riparian woody patches, mapped by visual interpretation on Google Earth imagery, along 130 Sampling Units of 250 m long river stretches. Eight riparian structural indicators, related with lateral dimension, weighted area and shape complexity of riparian patches were calculated using Patch Analyst extension for ArcGis 10. A set of 29 hydrological, climatic, and hydrogeomorphological variables were computed, by a water modelling system (MOHID), using monthly meteorological data between 2008 and 2014. Land-use classes were also calculated, in a 250m-buffer surrounding each sampling unit, using a classification based system on Corine Land Cover. Boosted Regression Trees identified Mean-width (MW) as the optimal riparian indicator for water scarcity and drought, followed by the Weighted Class Area (WCA) (classification accuracy =0.79 and 0.69 respectively). Average Flow and Strahler number were consistently selected, by all boosted models, as the most important explanatory variables. However, a combined effect of hidrogeomorphology and land-use can explain the high variability found in the riparian width mainly in Tâmega tributaries. Riparian patches are larger towards Tâmega river mouth although with lower shape complexity, probably related with more continuous and almost monospecific stands. Climatic, hydrological and land use scenarios, singly and combined, were used to quantify the riparian variability responding to these changes, and to assess the loss of riparian

  19. Underground infrastructure damage for a Chicago scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Dey, Thomas N; Bos, Rabdall J

    2011-01-25

    Estimating effects due to an urban IND (improvised nuclear device) on underground structures and underground utilities is a challenging task. Nuclear effects tests performed at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) during the era of nuclear weapons testing provides much information on how underground military structures respond. Transferring this knowledge to answer questions about the urban civilian environment is needed to help plan responses to IND scenarios. Explosions just above the ground surface can only couple a small fraction of the blast energy into an underground shock. The various forms of nuclear radiation have limited penetration into the ground. While the shock transmitted into the ground carries only a small fraction of the blast energy, peak stresses are generally higher and peak ground displacement is lower than in the air blast. While underground military structures are often designed to resist stresses substantially higher than due to the overlying rocks and soils (overburden), civilian structures such as subways and tunnels would generally only need to resist overburden conditions with a suitable safety factor. Just as we expect the buildings themselves to channel and shield air blast above ground, basements and other underground openings as well as changes of geology will channel and shield the underground shock wave. While a weaker shock is expected in an urban environment, small displacements on very close-by faults, and more likely, soils being displaced past building foundations where utility lines enter could readily damaged or disable these services. Immediately near an explosion, the blast can 'liquefy' a saturated soil creating a quicksand-like condition for a period of time. We extrapolate the nuclear effects experience to a Chicago-based scenario. We consider the TARP (Tunnel and Reservoir Project) and subway system and the underground lifeline (electric, gas, water, etc) system and provide guidance for planning this scenario.

  20. Evaluation of Future Precipitation Scenario Using Statistical Downscaling MODEL over Three Climatic Region of Nepal Himalaya

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sigdel, M.

    2014-12-01

    Statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was applied in downscaling precipitation in the three climatic regions such as humid, sub-humid and arid region of Nepal Himalaya. The study includes the calibration of the SDSM model by using large-scale atmospheric variables encompassing NCEP reanalysis data, the validation of the model and the outputs of downscaled scenarios A2 (high green house gases emission) and B2 (low green house gases emission) of the HadCM3 model for the future. Under both scenarios H3A2 and H3B2, during the prediction period of 2010-2099, the change of annual mean precipitation in the three climatic regions would present a tendency of surplus of precipitation as compared to the mean values of the base period. On the average for all three climatic regions of Nepal the annual mean precipitation would increase by about 13.75% under scenario H3A2 and increase near about 11.68% under scenario H3B2 in the 2050s. For the 2080s there would be increase of 8.28% and 13.30% under H3A2 and H3B2 respectively compared to the base period.

  1. CFDP Configuration: Enclid and Juice Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Valverde, Alberto; Taylor, Chris; Montesinos, Juan Antonio; Maiorano, Elena; Colombo, Cyril; Erd, Christian; Magistrati, Giorgio

    2014-08-01

    This paper presents the work done within the ESA ESTEC Data Systems Division, targeting the implementation of CFDP in future ESA Science Missions. EUCLID and JUICE currently include CCSDS File Delivery Protocol (CFDP) as baseline for payload data transfer to ground. The two missions have completely different characteristics, although both present quite demanding scenarios. Using the communication link characteristics as an input, some simulations have been performed to optimize the CFDP configuration and get some preliminary figures on the retransmission overhead, payload data bandwidth and number of parallel transactions needed to maintain full bandwidth utilization. The paper provides some guidelines on CFDP configuration and usage that can be useful in future CFDP implementations.

  2. Postulated accident scenarios in weapons disassembly

    SciTech Connect

    Payne, S.S.

    1997-06-01

    A very brief summary of three postulated accident scenarios for weapons disassembly is provided in the paper. The first deals with a tetrahedral configuration of four generic pits; the second, an infinite planar array of generic pits with varying interstitial water density; and the third, a spherical shell with internal mass suspension in water varying the size and mass of the shell. Calculations were performed using the Monte Carlo Neutron Photon transport code MCNP4A. Preliminary calculations pointed to a need for higher resolution of small pit separation regimes and snapshots of hydrodynamic processes of water/plutonium mixtures.

  3. Motivating an intergenerational workforce: scenarios for success.

    PubMed

    Wieck, K Lynn

    2007-01-01

    Although much has been written about the challenge of having four generations in the workplace simultaneously, problems of conflict, misunderstanding, and divisiveness continue. This article provides a snapshot of each generation as context. A series of scenarios based on Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs are then presented with insights into how each generation might approach the situation, along with hints for successfully managing toward positive outcomes. The expected outcome is a technique for each generation to look at workplace situations from all perspectives. PMID:18046211

  4. Robustness of braneworld scenarios against tensorial perturbations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bazeia, D.; Losano, L.; Menezes, R.; Olmo, Gonzalo J.; Rubiera-Garcia, D.

    2015-11-01

    Inspired by the peculiarities of the effective geometry of crystalline structures, we reconsider thick brane scenarios from a metric-affine perspective. We show that for a rather general family of theories of gravity, whose Lagrangian is an arbitrary function of the metric and the Ricci tensor, the background and scalar field equations can be written in first-order form, and tensorial perturbations have a non negative definite spectrum, which makes them stable under linear perturbations regardless of the form of the gravity Lagrangian. We find, in particular, that the tensorial zero modes are exactly the same as predicted by Einstein’s theory regardless of the scalar field and gravitational Lagrangians.

  5. Strategies for cost-effective carbon reductions: A sensitivity analysis of alternative scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Gumerman, Etan; Koomey, Jonathan G.; Brown, Marilyn

    2001-07-11

    Analyses of alternative futures often present results for a limited set of scenarios, with little if any sensitivity analysis to identify the factors affecting the scenario results. This approach creates an artificial impression of certainty associated with the scenarios considered, and inhibits understanding of the underlying forces. This paper summarizes the economic and carbon savings sensitivity analysis completed for the Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future study (IWG, 2000). Its 19 sensitivity cases provide insight into the costs and carbon-reduction impacts of a carbon permit trading system, demand-side efficiency programs, and supply-side policies. Impacts under different natural gas and oil price trajectories are also examined. The results provide compelling evidence that policy opportunities exist to reduce carbon emissions and save society money.

  6. SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: Economic Impacts and Resilience

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wein, A. M.; Rose, A.; Sue Wing, I.; Wei, D.

    2013-12-01

    Business interruption (BI) losses for the SAFRR tsunami scenario are derived from the forecasted physical damages of about 100 million at the Ports of Los Angeles (LA) and Long Beach (LB), and 700 million in marina damages, and 2 billion in inundated property damages along the California coast. Economic impacts are measured by the reduction in California's gross domestic product (GDP). The analysis involves several steps. First, estimates are made of immediate business interruption losses due to physical damage to facilities or to disruption of production. Second, total economic impacts (consisting of both direct and indirect effects) are measured by a general equilibrium (quantity and price multiplier effects) of lost production in other sectors through ripple effects upstream and downstream along the supply chain. Third, many types of resilience are applied to demonstrate their potential reductions of the impacts. At the Ports of LA and LB, a two-day port shutdown, cargo losses, and additional terminal downtimes would expose 1.2 billion of trade (import and export) value associated with over 4 billion of BI losses. The sectors potentially most affected by trade disruptions are leather, metal, and motor vehicle manufacturing. Excess capacity, inventories, export conversion, and conservation could reduce the direct trade impacts by 85%. Production recapture alone (including clearing the backlog of waiting ships) could reduce BI losses by 85%. The Port of LA commercial fishing would be subject to damages to the fleet, perished fish that cannot be landed, and lost fishing days. Although BI losses are relatively small, the southern Californian fishing sector could incur a 4% drop in output. The impacts would depend on the speed at which boats are repaired and whether lost fishing days can be made up. Ship-building and repair could also be negatively affected, but these impacts would be offset somewhat by reconstruction. Effects on commercial fishing in other locations

  7. A ΛCDM bounce scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cai, Yi-Fu; Wilson-Ewing, Edward

    2015-03-01

    We study a contracting universe composed of cold dark matter and radiation, and with a positive cosmological constant. As is well known from standard cosmological perturbation theory, under the assumption of initial quantum vacuum fluctuations the Fourier modes of the comoving curvature perturbation that exit the (sound) Hubble radius in such a contracting universe at a time of matter-domination will be nearly scale-invariant. Furthermore, the modes that exit the (sound) Hubble radius when the effective equation of state is slightly negative due to the cosmological constant will have a slight red tilt, in agreement with observations. We assume that loop quantum cosmology captures the correct high-curvature dynamics of the space-time, and this ensures that the big-bang singularity is resolved and is replaced by a bounce. We calculate the evolution of the perturbations through the bounce and find that they remain nearly scale-invariant. We also show that the amplitude of the scalar perturbations in this cosmology depends on a combination of the sound speed of cold dark matter, the Hubble rate in the contracting branch at the time of equality of the energy densities of cold dark matter and radiation, and the curvature scale that the loop quantum cosmology bounce occurs at. Importantly, as this scenario predicts a positive running of the scalar index, observations can potentially differentiate between it and inflationary models. Finally, for a small sound speed of cold dark matter, this scenario predicts a small tensor-to-scalar ratio.

  8. Mars Sample Return mission: Two alternate scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1991-01-01

    Two scenarios for accomplishing a Mars Sample Return mission are presented herein. Mission A is a low cost, low mass scenario, while Mission B is a high technology, high science alternative. Mission A begins with the launch of one Titan IV rocket with a Centaur G' upper stage. The Centaur performs the trans-Mars injection burn and is then released. The payload consists of two lander packages and the Orbital Transfer Vehicle, which is responsible for supporting the landers during launch and interplanetary cruise. After descending to the surface, the landers deploy small, local rovers to collect samples. Mission B starts with 4 Titan IV launches, used to place the parts of the Planetary Transfer Vehicle (PTV) into orbit. The fourth launch payload is able to move to assemble the entire vehicle by simple docking routines. Once complete, the PTV begins a low thrust trajectory out from low Earth orbit, through interplanetary space, and into low Martian orbit. It deploys a communication satellite into a 1/2 sol orbit and then releases the lander package at 500 km altitude. The lander package contains the lander, the Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV), two lighter than air rovers (called Aereons), and one conventional land rover. The entire package is contained with a biconic aeroshell. After release from the PTV, the lander package descends to the surface, where all three rovers are released to collect samples and map the terrain.

  9. An Experiment on Graph Analysis Methodologies for Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Brothers, Alan J.; Whitney, Paul D.; Wolf, Katherine E.; Kuchar, Olga A.; Chin, George

    2005-09-30

    Visual graph representations are increasingly used to represent, display, and explore scenarios and the structure of organizations. The graph representations of scenarios are readily understood, and commercial software is available to create and manage these representations. The purpose of the research presented in this paper is to explore whether these graph representations support quantitative assessments of the underlying scenarios. The underlying structure of the scenarios is the information that is being targeted in the experiment and the extent to which the scenarios are similar in content. An experiment was designed that incorporated both the contents of the scenarios and analysts’ graph representations of the scenarios. The scenarios’ content was represented graphically by analysts, and both the structure and the semantics of the graph representation were attempted to be used to understand the content. The structure information was not found to be discriminating for the content of the scenarios in this experiment; but, the semantic information was discriminating.

  10. FORMAL SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT FOR ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT STUDIES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Scenario analysis is a process of evaluating possible future events through the consideration of alternative plausible (though not equally likely) outcomes (scenarios). The analysis is designed to enable improved decision-making and assessment through a more rigorous evaluation o...

  11. 40 CFR 68.28 - Alternative release scenario analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... release scenario under § 68.25; and (ii) That will reach an endpoint offsite, unless no such scenario... the endpoints. The owner or operator may use either the methodology provided in the RMP...

  12. 40 CFR 68.28 - Alternative release scenario analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... release scenario under § 68.25; and (ii) That will reach an endpoint offsite, unless no such scenario... the endpoints. The owner or operator may use either the methodology provided in the RMP...

  13. 40 CFR 68.28 - Alternative release scenario analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... release scenario under § 68.25; and (ii) That will reach an endpoint offsite, unless no such scenario... the endpoints. The owner or operator may use either the methodology provided in the RMP...

  14. 40 CFR 68.28 - Alternative release scenario analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... release scenario under § 68.25; and (ii) That will reach an endpoint offsite, unless no such scenario... the endpoints. The owner or operator may use either the methodology provided in the RMP...

  15. Stability of distributed MPC in an intersection scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sprodowski, T.; Pannek, J.

    2015-11-01

    The research topic of autonomous cars and the communication among them has attained much attention in the last years and is developing quickly. Among others, this research area spans fields such as image recognition, mathematical control theory, communication networks, and sensor fusion. We consider an intersection scenario where we divide the shared road space in different cells. These cells form a grid. The cars are modelled as an autonomous multi-agent system based on the Distributed Model Predictive Control algorithm (DMPC). We prove that the overall system reaches stability using Optimal Control for each multi-agent and demonstrate that by numerical results.

  16. Simulation of scenario earthquake influenced field by using GIS

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Zuo, H.-Q.; Xie, L.-L.; Borcherdt, R.D.

    1999-01-01

    The method for estimating the site effect on ground motion specified by Borcherdt (1994a, 1994b) is briefly introduced in the paper. This method and the detail geological data and site classification data in San Francisco bay area of California, the United States, are applied to simulate the influenced field of scenario earthquake by GIS technology, and the software for simulating has been drawn up. The paper is a partial result of cooperative research project between China Seismological Bureau and US Geological Survey.

  17. Modified gravity in three dimensional metric-affine scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bambi, Cosimo; Ghasemi-Nodehi, M.; Rubiera-Garcia, D.

    2015-08-01

    We consider metric-affine scenarios where a modified gravitational action is sourced by electrovacuum fields in a three dimensional space-time. We first study the case of f (R ) theories, finding deviations near the center as compared to the solutions of general relativity. We then consider Born-Infeld gravity, which has raised a lot of interest in the last few years regarding its applications in astrophysics and cosmology, and show that new features always arise at a finite distance from the center. Several properties of the resulting space-times, in particular in presence of a cosmological constant term, are discussed.

  18. Future Forest Cover Change Scenarios with Implications for Landslide Risk: An Example from Buzau Subcarpathians, Romania

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malek, Žiga; Boerboom, Luc; Glade, Thomas

    2015-11-01

    This study focuses on future forest cover change in Buzau Subcarpathians, a landslide prone region in Romania. Past and current trends suggest that the area might expect a future increase in deforestation. We developed spatially explicit scenarios until 2040 to analyze the spatial pattern of future forest cover change and potential changes to landslide risk. First, we generated transition probability maps using the weights of evidence method, followed by a cellular automata allocation model. We performed expert interviews, to develop two future forest management scenarios. The Alternative scenario (ALT) was defined by 67 % more deforestation than the Business as Usual scenario (BAU). We integrated the simulated scenarios with a landslide susceptibility map. In both scenarios, most of deforestation was projected in areas where landslides are less likely to occur. Still, 483 (ALT) and 276 (BAU) ha of deforestation were projected on areas with a high-landslide occurrence likelihood. Thus, deforestation could lead to a local-scale increase in landslide risk, in particular near or adjacent to forestry roads. The parallel process of near 10 % forest expansion until 2040 was projected to occur mostly on areas with high-landslide susceptibility. On a regional scale, forest expansion could so result in improved slope stability. We modeled two additional scenarios with an implemented landslide risk policy, excluding high-risk zones. The reduction of deforestation on high-risk areas was achieved without a drastic decrease in the accessibility of the areas. Together with forest expansion, it could therefore be used as a risk reduction strategy.

  19. The Future of Land Use in the United States: Downscaling SRES Emission Scenarios to Ecoregions and Pixels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sleeter, B. M.; Sohl, T. L.; Sayler, K.; Bouchard, M. A.; Reker, R.; Sleeter, R. R.; Zhu, Z.; Auch, R.; Acevedo, W.; Soulard, C. E.; Griffith, G.

    2011-12-01

    Scenario analysis has emerged as a useful tool for evaluating uncertain futures in ecological systems. We describe research initiated by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to develop a comprehensive portfolio of future land-use and land-cover (LULC) scenarios for the United States. The USGS has identified LULC scenarios as a focal area of future research. Scenarios are used to assist in the understanding of possible future developments in complex systems that typically have high levels of scientific uncertainty. Scenarios generally require knowledge of history and current conditions, and specific understanding about how drivers of change have acted to influence the historical and current condition. We describe methods and results of downscaling LULC and associated narrative storylines from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). The downscaling methods leverage three primary sources of information: 1) comprehensive land-use histories developed through remote sensing and survey data, 2) modeled LULC outputs from global integrated assessment models (IAMs), and 3) expert knowledge of regional land change. First, national and ecoregional narrative storylines were derived from the global IPCC framework. Based on the characteristics of downscaled narrative storylines, experts used historical data and information on the rates and types of LULC change, in conjunction with coarse-scale IAM projections of land use, to produce future quantitative scenarios. An accounting model was developed to handle all aspects of scenario downscaling. Here we present the methods used to construct ecoregion-specific scenarios of LULC change consistent with the IPCC-SRES scenarios, as well as results at multiple geographic scales. The USGS LandCarbon assessment is implementing a scenario-based approach for projecting changes in LULC that may result in changes to ecosystem carbon flux and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Results described

  20. Numerical Simulation Study of the Sanchiao Fault Earthquake Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Yi-Min; Lee, Shiann-Jong

    2015-04-01

    Sanchiao fault is a western boundary fault of the Taipei basin located in northern Taiwan, close to the densely populated Taipei metropolitan area. Recent study indicated that there is about 40 km of the fault trace extended to the marine area offshore northern Taiwan. Combining the marine and terrestrial parts, the total fault length of Sanchiao fault could be nearly 70 kilometers which implies that this fault has potential to produce a big earthquake. In this study, we analyze several Sanchiao fault earthquake scenarios based on the recipe for predicting strong ground motion. The characterized source parameters include fault length, rupture area, seismic moment, asperity, and slip pattern on the fault plane. According to the assumption of the characterized source model, Sanchiao fault has been inferred to have the potential to produce an earthquake with moment magnitude (Mw) larger than 7.0. Three-dimensional seismic simulation results based upon spectral-element method (SEM) indicate that peak ground acceleration (PGA) is significantly stronger along the fault trace. The basin effect also plays an important role when wave propagates in the Taipei basin which cause seismic wave amplified and prolong the shaking for a very long time. Among all rupture scenarios, the rupture propagated from north to south is the most serious one. Owing to the rupture directivity as well as the basin effects, large PGA (>1g) was observed in the Taipei basin, especially in the northwest side. The results of these scenario earthquake simulations will provide important physically-based numerical data for earthquake mitigation and seismic hazard assessment.

  1. Environmental impacts of high penetration renewable energy scenarios for Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berrill, Peter; Arvesen, Anders; Scholz, Yvonne; Gils, Hans Christian; Hertwich, Edgar G.

    2016-01-01

    The prospect of irreversible environmental alterations and an increasingly volatile climate pressurises societies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, thereby mitigating climate change impacts. As global electricity demand continues to grow, particularly if considering a future with increased electrification of heat and transport sectors, the imperative to decarbonise our electricity supply becomes more urgent. This letter implements outputs of a detailed power system optimisation model into a prospective life cycle analysis framework in order to present a life cycle analysis of 44 electricity scenarios for Europe in 2050, including analyses of systems based largely on low-carbon fossil energy options (natural gas, and coal with carbon capture and storage (CCS)) as well as systems with high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) (wind and solar). VRE curtailments and impacts caused by extra energy storage and transmission capabilities necessary in systems based on VRE are taken into account. The results show that systems based largely on VRE perform much better regarding climate change and other impact categories than the investigated systems based on fossil fuels. The climate change impacts from Europe for the year 2050 in a scenario using primarily natural gas are 1400 Tg CO2-eq while in a scenario using mostly coal with CCS the impacts are 480 Tg CO2-eq. Systems based on renewables with an even mix of wind and solar capacity generate impacts of 120-140 Tg CO2-eq. Impacts arising as a result of wind and solar variability do not significantly compromise the climate benefits of utilising these energy resources. VRE systems require more infrastructure leading to much larger mineral resource depletion impacts than fossil fuel systems, and greater land occupation impacts than systems based on natural gas. Emissions and resource requirements from wind power are smaller than from solar power.

  2. Multiple Scenarios in Higher Education. AIR 1983 Annual Forum Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Heydinger, Richard B.

    A model for generating global scenarios for higher education is presented, and five global scenarios for the future of higher education in the United States are proposed. Multiple scenarios help to set the context in which planning occurs. They are similar to planning assumptions that many institutional research offices prepare as background…

  3. Effects of Scenario Planning on Participant Mental Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Glick, Margaret B.; Chermack, Thomas J.; Luckel, Henry; Gauck, Brian Q.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to assess the effects of scenario planning on participant mental model styles. Design/methodology/approach: The scenario planning literature is consistent with claims that scenario planning can change individual mental models. These claims are supported by anecdotal evidence and stories from the practical…

  4. Scenarios for the Future of Teacher Education in Europe.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Snoek, Marco; Baldwin, Gavin; Cautreels, Paul; Enemaerke, Torsten; Halstead, Valerie; Hilton, Gillian; Klemp, Torunn; Leriche, Leo; Linde, Goran; Nilsen, Elisabeth; Rehn, Joran; Smet, Ronny; Smith, Kari; Sousa, Jesus Maria; Stomp, Lex; Svensson, Hans; and Svensson, Leif

    2003-01-01

    Presents four scenarios that illustrate possible futures of teacher education in Europe. The scenarios differ in their emphasis on four driving forces: pragmatism, idealism, individualism, and social coherence. Each scenario is described in terms of characteristics of society, education/teacher education, and teacher/teacher educator roles and is…

  5. Solitary Inhibition of the Breast Cancer Resistance Protein Efflux Transporter Results in a Clinically Significant Drug-Drug Interaction with Rosuvastatin by Causing up to a 2-Fold Increase in Statin Exposure.

    PubMed

    Elsby, Robert; Martin, Paul; Surry, Dominic; Sharma, Pradeep; Fenner, Katherine

    2016-03-01

    The intestinal efflux transporter breast cancer resistance protein (BCRP) restricts the absorption of rosuvastatin. Of the transporters important to rosuvastatin disposition, fostamatinib inhibited BCRP (IC50 = 50 nM) and organic anion-transporting polypeptide 1B1 (OATP1B1; IC50 > 10 μM), but not organic anion transporter 3, in vitro, predicting a drug-drug interaction (DDI) in vivo through inhibition of BCRP only. Consequently, a clinical interaction study between fostamatinib and rosuvastatin was performed (and reported elsewhere). This confirmed the critical role BCRP plays in statin absorption, as inhibition by fostamatinib resulted in a significant 1.96-fold and 1.88-fold increase in rosuvastatin area under the plasma concentration-time curve (AUC) and Cmax, respectively. An in vitro BCRP inhibition assay, using polarized Caco-2 cells and rosuvastatin as probe substrate, was subsequently validated with literature inhibitors and used to determine BCRP inhibitory potencies (IC50) of the perpetrator drugs eltrombopag, darunavir, lopinavir, clopidogrel, ezetimibe, fenofibrate, and fluconazole. OATP1B1 inhibition was also determined using human embryonic kidney 293-OATP1B1 cells versus estradiol 17β-glucuronide. Calculated parameters of maximum enterocyte concentration [Igut max], maximum unbound hepatic inlet concentration, transporter fraction excreted value, and determined IC50 value were incorporated into mechanistic static equations to compute theoretical increases in rosuvastatin AUC due to inhibition of BCRP and/or OATP1B1. Calculated theoretical increases in exposure correctly predicted the clinically observed changes in rosuvastatin exposure and suggested intestinal BCRP inhibition (not OATP1B1) to be the mechanism underlying the DDIs with these drugs. In conclusion, solitary inhibition of the intestinal BCRP transporter can result in clinically significant DDIs with rosuvastatin, causing up to a maximum 2-fold increase in exposure, which may warrant

  6. Arctic Climate Change Analysed By Two 30-year Scenario Regional Climate Model Runs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kiilsholm, S.; Christensen, J. H.

    High-resolution climate change simulations for an area covering the entire Arctic have been conducted with the regional climate model (RCM) HIRHAM. The emission sce- narios used were the IPCC SRES1 marker scenarios A2 and B2. Three 30-year time slice experiments were conducted with HIRHAM for periods representing present-day (1961-1990) and the future (2071-2100) in the two scenarios. Changes of the climate between these two periods will be presented with special emphasize on the climate of Greenland.

  7. Anticipatory Water Management in Phoenix using Advanced Scenario Planning and Analyses: WaterSim 5

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sampson, D. A.; Quay, R.; White, D. D.; Gober, P.; Kirkwood, C.

    2013-12-01

    Complexity, uncertainty, and variability are inherent properties of linked social and natural processes; sustainable resource management must somehow consider all three. Typically, a decision support tool (using scenario analyses) is used to examine management alternatives under suspected trajectories in driver variables (i.e., climate forcing's, growth or economic projections, etc.). This traditional planning focuses on a small set of envisioned scenarios whose outputs are compared against one-another in order to evaluate their differing impacts on desired metrics. Human cognition typically limits this to three to five scenarios. However, complex and highly uncertain issues may require more, often much more, than five scenarios. In this case advanced scenario analysis provides quantitative or qualitative methods that can reveal patterns and associations among scenario metrics for a large ensemble of scenarios. From this analysis, then, a smaller set of heuristics that describe the complexity and uncertainty revealed provides a basis to guide planning in an anticipatory fashion. Our water policy and management model, termed WaterSim, permits advanced scenario planning and analysis for the Phoenix Metropolitan Area. In this contribution we examine the concepts of advanced scenario analysis on a large scale ensemble of scenarios using our work with WaterSim as a case study. For this case study we created a range of possible water futures by creating scenarios that encompasses differences in water supplies (our surrogates for climate change, drought, and inherent variability in riverine flows), population growth, and per capital water consumption. We used IPCC estimates of plausible, future, alterations in riverine runoff, locally produced and vetted estimates of population growth projections, and empirical trends in per capita water consumption for metropolitan cities. This ensemble consisted of ~ 30, 700 scenarios (~575 k observations). We compared and contrasted

  8. Comparison of Sigma-Point and Extended Kalman Filters on a Realistic Orbit Determination Scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gaebler, John; Hur-Diaz. Sun; Carpenter, Russell

    2010-01-01

    Sigma-point filters have received a lot of attention in recent years as a better alternative to extended Kalman filters for highly nonlinear problems. In this paper, we compare the performance of the additive divided difference sigma-point filter to the extended Kalman filter when applied to orbit determination of a realistic operational scenario based on the Interstellar Boundary Explorer mission. For the scenario studied, both filters provided equivalent results. The performance of each is discussed in detail.

  9. Environmental Influences on Mate Preferences as Assessed by a Scenario Manipulation Experiment

    PubMed Central

    Marzoli, Daniele; Moretto, Francesco; Monti, Aura; Tocci, Ornella; Roberts, S. Craig; Tommasi, Luca

    2013-01-01

    Many evolutionary psychology studies have addressed the topic of mate preferences, focusing particularly on gender and cultural differences. However, the extent to which situational and environmental variables might affect mate preferences has been comparatively neglected. We tested 288 participants in order to investigate the perceived relative importance of six traits of an ideal partner (wealth, dominance, intelligence, height, kindness, attractiveness) under four different hypothetical scenarios (status quo/nowadays, violence/post-nuclear, poverty/resource exhaustion, prosperity/global well-being). An equal number of participants (36 women, 36 men) was allotted to each scenario; each was asked to allocate 120 points across the six traits according to their perceived value. Overall, intelligence was the trait to which participants assigned most importance, followed by kindness and attractiveness, and then by wealth, dominance and height. Men appraised attractiveness as more valuable than women. Scenario strongly influenced the relative importance attributed to traits, the main finding being that wealth and dominance were more valued in the poverty and post-nuclear scenarios, respectively, compared to the other scenarios. Scenario manipulation generally had similar effects in both sexes, but women appeared particularly prone to trade off other traits for dominance in the violence scenario, and men particularly prone to trade off other traits for wealth in the poverty scenario. Our results are in line with other correlational studies of situational variables and mate preferences, and represent strong evidence of a causal relationship of environmental factors on specific mate preferences, corroborating the notion of an evolved plasticity to current ecological conditions. A control experiment seems to suggest that our scenarios can be considered as realistic descriptions of the intended ecological conditions. PMID:24069291

  10. Constellation Architecture Team-Lunar Scenario 12.0 Habitation Overview

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kennedy, Kriss J.; Toups, Larry D.; Rudisill, Marianne

    2010-01-01

    This paper will describe an overview of the Constellation Architecture Team Lunar Scenario 12.0 (LS-12) surface habitation approach and concept performed during the study definition. The Lunar Scenario 12 architecture study focused on two primary habitation approaches: a horizontally-oriented habitation module (LS-12.0) and a vertically-oriented habitation module (LS-12.1). This paper will provide an overview of the 12.0 lunar surface campaign, the associated outpost architecture, habitation functionality, concept description, system integration strategy, mass and power resource estimates. The Scenario 12 architecture resulted from combining three previous scenario attributes from Scenario 4 "Optimized Exploration", Scenario 5 "Fission Surface Power System" and Scenario 8 "Initial Extensive Mobility" into Scenario 12 along with an added emphasis on defining the excursion ConOps while the crew is away from the outpost location. This paper will describe an overview of the CxAT-Lunar Scenario 12.0 habitation concepts and their functionality. The Crew Operations area includes basic crew accommodations such as sleeping, eating, hygiene and stowage. The EVA Operations area includes additional EVA capability beyond the suitlock function such as suit maintenance, spares stowage, and suit stowage. The Logistics Operations area includes the enhanced accommodations for 180 days such as enhanced life support systems hardware, consumable stowage, spares stowage, interconnection to the other habitation elements, a common interface mechanism for future growth, and mating to a pressurized rover or Pressurized Logistics Module (PLM). The Mission & Science Operations area includes enhanced outpost autonomy such as an IVA glove box, life support, medical operations, and exercise equipment.

  11. High resolution scenarios of land-use and land-cover change for the conterminous United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sleeter, B. M.; Sohl, T. L.; Bouchard, M. A.; Reker, R. R.; Sayler, K.; Sleeter, R.; Soulard, C. E.; Wilson, T. S.

    2012-12-01

    We describe a series of high resolution maps of past and projected changes in land use and land cover (LULC) for the conterminous United States for the period 1992 to 2100. Four scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) were used to create annual maps showing spatially explicit change in 15 LULC classes at a spatial resolution of 250 meters. A modular land-use modeling approach was utilized with distinct demand and spatial allocation components. To quantify demand for future LULC change (i.e. the quantity of changes in land use and land cover classes), a scenario downscaling model was developed to extend global scenarios from the IPCC to hierarchically nested ecoregions of the U.S. The Forecasting Scenarios (FORE-SCE) land use model was then employed to allocate scenario demand on the landscape. Both models were parameterized at the ecoregion scale and relied extensively on land use histories and expert knowledge. Results reveal large differences across IPCC-SRES scenarios. Scenarios prioritizing economic development over environmental protection result in the highest rates of LULC change, particularly in regions with extensive forest management, large urban areas, and/or large investments in agricultural land. Scenarios where environmental protection is emphasized result in slower rates of change and less intensity in regional land use patterns.

  12. Comparative study of climate-change scenarios on groundwater recharge, southwestern Mississippi and southeastern Louisiana, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beigi, Ehsan; Tsai, Frank T.-C.

    2015-02-01

    A geographic information system (GIS)-based water-budget framework has been developed to study the climate-change impact on regional groundwater recharge, and it was applied to the Southern Hills aquifer system of southwestern Mississippi and southeastern Louisiana, USA. The framework links historical climate variables and future emission scenarios of climate models to a hydrologic model, HELP3, to quantify spatiotemporal potential recharge variations from 1950 to 2099. The framework includes parallel programming to divide a large amount of HELP3 simulations among multiple cores of a supercomputer, to expedite computation. The results show that a wide range of projected potential recharge for the Southern Hills aquifer system resulted from the divergent projections of precipitation, temperature and solar radiation using three scenarios (B1, A2 and A1FI) of the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Parallel Climate Model 1 (PCM) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab's (GFDL) model. The PCM model projects recharge change ranging from -33.7 to +19.1 % for the 21st century. The GFDL model projects less recharge than the PCM, with recharge change ranging from -58.1 to +7.1 %. Potential recharge is likely to increase in 2010-2039, but likely to decrease in 2070-2099. Projected recharge is more sensitive to the changes in the projected precipitation than the projected solar radiation and temperature. Uncertainty analysis confirms that the uncertainty in projected precipitation yields more changes in the potential recharge than in the projected temperature for the study area.

  13. Overview of the Biomass Scenario Model

    SciTech Connect

    Peterson, Steve

    2015-09-01

    This report describes the structure of the October 2012 version of the Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) in considerable detail, oriented towards readers with a background or interest in the underlying modeling structures. Readers seeking a less-detailed summary of the BSM may refer to Peterson (2013). BSM aims to provide a framework for exploring the potential contribution of biofuel technologies to the transportation energy supply for the United States over the next several decades. The model has evolved significantly from the prototype developed as part of the Role of Biomass in America" tm s Energy Future (RBAEF) project. BSM represents the supply chain surrounding conversion pathways for multiple fuel products, including ethanol, butanol, and infrastructure-compatible biofuels such as diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline.

  14. Sarin exposure: a simulation case scenario.

    PubMed

    Eason, Martin P

    2013-01-01

    Given the current geopolitical tensions, the risk of a terrorist attack on the United States is constant and increasing. Chemical terrorism, specifically the use of nerve agents, has occurred in other nations. Because of the ease of manufacture, the ability to conceal them, and the lethality of these agents, they pose a potential threat as a weapon of terror. Nerve agent exposure requires prompt recognition, a series of actions to mitigate further exposure to others, and management of the physiological sequelae of exposure. Many civilian healthcare providers are unprepared to manage injuries from nerve exposure. Failure to recognize the signs of nerve agent exposure will increase mortality and morbidity in victims and place healthcare providers at risk. Simulation is an effective methodology to train healthcare personnel in disaster preparedness. This article presents a simulation scenario that reviews the presentation of nerve agent exposure, its management, and a recipe for performing this simulation in a training exercise. PMID:23263315

  15. Emergence in holographic scenarios for gravity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dieks, Dennis; van Dongen, Jeroen; de Haro, Sebastian

    2015-11-01

    'Holographic' relations between theories have become an important theme in quantum gravity research. These relations entail that a theory without gravity is equivalent to a gravitational theory with an extra spatial dimension. The idea of holography was first proposed in 1993 by Gerard 't Hooft on the basis of his studies of evaporating black holes. Soon afterwards the holographic 'AdS/CFT' duality was introduced, which since has been intensively studied in the string theory community and beyond. Recently, Erik Verlinde has proposed that even Newton's law of gravitation can be related holographically to the 'thermodynamics of information' on screens. We discuss these scenarios, with special attention to the status of the holographic relation in them and to the question of whether they make gravity and spacetime emergent. We conclude that only Verlinde's scheme straightforwardly instantiates emergence. However, assuming a non-standard interpretation of AdS/CFT may create room for the emergence of spacetime and gravity there as well.

  16. Changing scenarios in the projection market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dash, Sweta

    2002-04-01

    The projection market is undergoing many dynamic changes. Front LCD and front-reflective (mainly DLP) technologies compete with each other for most projection applications. The front-projector market is still emerging, with new technologies (such as liquid-crystal-on-silicon, or LCOS), new product categories developing (like scenarios in the projection market by examining the developments over last five years. Also, this paper touches on what to expect in the next five years.

  17. Present and Future Energy Scenario in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, S.; Bhattacharyya, B.; Gupta, V. K.

    2014-09-01

    India's energy sector is one of the most critical components of an infrastructure that affects India's economic growth and therefore is also one of the largest industries in India. India has the 5th largest electricity generating capacity and is the 6th largest energy consumer amounting for around 3.4 % of global energy consumption. India's energy demand has grown at 3.6 % pa over the past 30 years. The consumption of the energy is directly proportional to the progress of manpower with ever growing population, improvement in the living standard of the humanity and industrialization of the developing countries. Very recently smart grid technology can attribute important role in energy scenario. Smart grid refers to electric power system that enhances grid reliability and efficiency by automatically responding to system disturbances. This paper discusses the new communication infrastructure and scheme designed to integrate data.

  18. Detecting genuine multipartite entanglement in steering scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jebaratnam, C.

    2016-05-01

    Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen (EPR) steering is a form of quantum nonlocality which is intermediate between entanglement and Bell nonlocality. EPR steering is a resource for quantum key distribution that is device independent on only one side in that it certifies bipartite entanglement when one party's device is not characterized while the other party's device is fully characterized. In this work, we introduce two types of genuine tripartite EPR steering, and derive two steering inequalities to detect them. In a semi-device-independent scenario where only the dimensions of two parties are assumed, the correlations which violate one of these inequalities also certify genuine tripartite entanglement. It is known that Alice can demonstrate bipartite EPR steering to Bob if and only if her measurement settings are incompatible. We demonstrate that quantum correlations can also detect tripartite EPR steering from Alice to Bob and Charlie, even if Charlie's measurement settings are compatible.

  19. Male breast cancer: is the scenario changing

    PubMed Central

    Contractor, Kaiyumars B; Kaur, Kanchan; Rodrigues, Gabriel S; Kulkarni, Dhananjay M; Singhal, Hemant

    2008-01-01

    Background The overall incidence of male breast cancer is around 1% of all breast cancers and is on the rise. In this review we aim to present various aspects of male breast cancer with particular emphasis on incidence, risk factors, patho-physiology, treatment, prognostic factors, and outcome. Methods Information on all aspects of male breast cancer was gathered from available relevant literature on male breast cancer from the MEDLINE database over the past 32 years from 1975 to 2007. Various reported studies were scrutinized for emerging evidence. Incidence data were also obtained from the IARC, Cancer Mondial database. Conclusion There is a scenario of rising incidence, particularly in urban US, Canada and UK. Even though more data on risk factors is emerging about this disease, more multi-institutional efforts to pool data with large randomized trials to show treatment and survival benefits are needed to support the existing vast emerging knowledge about the disease. PMID:18558006

  20. Stochastic Optimization for Nuclear Facility Deployment Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hays, Ross Daniel

    Single-use, low-enriched uranium oxide fuel, consumed through several cycles in a light-water reactor (LWR) before being disposed, has become the dominant source of commercial-scale nuclear electric generation in the United States and throughout the world. However, it is not without its drawbacks and is not the only potential nuclear fuel cycle available. Numerous alternative fuel cycles have been proposed at various times which, through the use of different reactor and recycling technologies, offer to counteract many of the perceived shortcomings with regards to waste management, resource utilization, and proliferation resistance. However, due to the varying maturity levels of these technologies, the complicated material flow feedback interactions their use would require, and the large capital investments in the current technology, one should not deploy these advanced designs without first investigating the potential costs and benefits of so doing. As the interactions among these systems can be complicated, and the ways in which they may be deployed are many, the application of automated numerical optimization to the simulation of the fuel cycle could potentially be of great benefit to researchers and interested policy planners. To investigate the potential of these methods, a computational program has been developed that applies a parallel, multi-objective simulated annealing algorithm to a computational optimization problem defined by a library of relevant objective functions applied to the Ver ifiable Fuel Cycle Simulati on Model (VISION, developed at the Idaho National Laboratory). The VISION model, when given a specified fuel cycle deployment scenario, computes the numbers and types of, and construction, operation, and utilization schedules for, the nuclear facilities required to meet a predetermined electric power demand function. Additionally, it calculates the location and composition of the nuclear fuels within the fuel cycle, from initial mining through

  1. A COLLISIONLESS SCENARIO FOR URANUS TILTING

    SciTech Connect

    Boue, Gwenael; Laskar, Jacques

    2010-03-20

    The origin of the high inclination of Uranus' spin-axis (Uranus' obliquity) is one of the great unanswered questions about the solar system. Giant planets are believed to form with nearly zero obliquity, and it has been shown that the present behavior of Uranus' spin is essentially stable. Several attempts were made in order to solve this problem. Here we report numerical simulations showing that Uranus' axis can be tilted during the planetary migration, without the need of a giant impact, provided that the planet had an additional satellite and a temporary large inclination. This might have happened during the giant planet instability phase described in the Nice model. In our scenario, the satellite is ejected after the tilt by a close encounter at the end of the migration. This model can both explain Uranus' large obliquity and bring new constraints on the planet orbital evolution.

  2. Future Scenarios for Mobile Science Learning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burden, Kevin; Kearney, Matthew

    2016-04-01

    This paper adopts scenario planning as a methodological approach and tool to help science educators reconceptualise their use of mobile technologies across various different futures. These `futures' are set out neither as predictions nor prognoses but rather as stimuli to encourage greater discussion and reflection around the use of mobile technologies in science education. Informed by the literature and our empirical data, we consider four alternative futures for science education in a mobile world, with a particular focus on networked collaboration and student agency. We conclude that `seamless learning', whereby students are empowered to use their mobile technologies to negotiate across physical and virtual boundaries (e.g. between school and out-of-school activities), may be the most significant factor in encouraging educators to rethink their existing pedagogical patterns, thereby realizing some of the promises of contextualised participatory science learning.

  3. Adding tocilizumab or switching to tocilizumab monotherapy in methotrexate inadequate responders: 24-week symptomatic and structural results of a 2-year randomised controlled strategy trial in rheumatoid arthritis (ACT-RAY)

    PubMed Central

    Dougados, Maxime; Kissel, Karsten; Sheeran, Tom; Tak, Paul P; Conaghan, Philip G; Mola, Emilio Martín; Schett, Georg; Amital, Howard; Navarro-Sarabia, Federico; Hou, Antony; Bernasconi, Corrado; Huizinga, TWJ

    2013-01-01

    Objective In patients with active rheumatoid arthritis (RA) despite methotrexate, to compare the efficacy of adding tocilizumab to that of switching to tocilizumab monotherapy. Methods Double-blind, 2-year study in which adults with active RA (DAS28 >4.4) despite methotrexate were randomly assigned either to continue methotrexate with the addition of tocilizumab (MTX+TCZ) 8 mg/kg every 4 weeks or switch to tocilizumab and placebo (TCZ+PBO). The primary endpoint was the DAS28–erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) remission rate at week 24. Secondary objectives included other symptomatic outcomes, quality of life and progression of structural damage. Results Of 556 randomly assigned patients, 512 (92%) completed 24 weeks. DAS28–ESR remission rates were 40.4% for TCZ+MTX and 34.8% for TCZ+PBO (p=0.19); American College of Rheumatology 20/50/70/90 rates were 71.5%/45.5%/24.5%/5.8% (TCZ+MTX) and 70.3%/40.2%/25.4%/5.1% (TCZ+PBO; differences not significant). A significant difference between groups was seen for low DAS28 (61.7% vs 51.4%). Radiographic progression was small and not different between groups (Genant–Sharp score progression ≤ smallest detectable change in 91% (TCZ+MTX) and 87% (TCZ+PBO)). Rates per 100 patient-years of serious adverse events and serious infections were 21 and six, respectively, for TCZ+MTX and 18 and six, respectively, for TCZ+PBO. Alanine aminotransferase elevations greater than threefold the upper limit of normal occurred in 7.8% and 1.2% of TCZ+MTX and TCZ+PBO patients, respectively. Conclusion No clinically relevant superiority of the TCZ+MTX add-on strategy over the switch to tocilizumab monotherapy strategy was observed. The combination was more commonly associated with transaminase increases. Meaningful clinical and radiographic responses were achieved with both strategies, suggesting that tocilizumab monotherapy might be a valuable treatment strategy in suitable RA patients. PMID:22562983

  4. Efficacy and safety of finasteride therapy for benign prostatic hyperplasia: results of a 2-year randomized controlled trial (the PROSPECT study). PROscar Safety Plus Efficacy Canadian Two year Study.

    PubMed Central

    Nickel, J C; Fradet, Y; Boake, R C; Pommerville, P J; Perreault, J P; Afridi, S K; Elhilali, M M

    1996-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the efficacy and safety of 2 years' treatment of moderate benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) with finasteride. DESIGN: Double-blind, parallel-group, placebo-controlled, multicentre, prospective randomized study. SETTING: Outpatient care in 28 centres across Canada. PARTICIPANTS: Men aged 45 to 80, in good health, with moderate BPH and no evidence of prostate cancer. A total of 613 men were entered into the study; 472 completed the 2 years of treatment. INTERVENTION: After 1 month of receiving a placebo (run-in period), patients were given either finasteride (5 mg/d) or a placebo for 2 years. OUTCOME MEASURES: Efficacy: changes from baseline in BPH symptom scores, maximum urinary flow rates and prostate volume. Safety: onset, course and resolution of all adverse events during the treatment period. RESULTS: In the efficacy analyses the mean BPH symptom scores decreased 2.1 points (from 15.8 to 13.7) in the finasteride group, as compared with a decrease of 0.7 points (from 16.6 to 15.9) in the placebo group (P < or = 0.01). The maximum urinary flow rate increased by a mean of 1.4 mL/s (from 11.1 to 12.5 mL/s) in the finasteride group, as compared with an increase of 0.3 mL/s (from 10.9 to 11.2 mL/s) in the placebo group (p < or = 0.01). The mean prostate volume decreased by 21% (from a mean volume of 44.1 cm3 at baseline) in the treatment group; it increased by 8.4% (from a mean volume of 45.8 cm3 at baseline) in the placebo group (p < or = 0.01). In the safety analysis, the proportion of patients who experienced any adverse event was similar in the two groups (81.0% in the treatment group and 81.2% in the placebo group). However, the incidence of adverse events related to sexual dysfunction were significantly higher in the finasteride group than in the placebo group (ejaculation disorder 7.7% v. 1.7% and impotence 15.8% v. 6.3%; p < or = 0.01 for both parameters). CONCLUSION: Finasteride is a well-tolerated and effective alternative to watchful

  5. Carbon footprint of four different wastewater treatment scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diafarou, Moumouni; Mariska, Ronteltap, ,, Dr.; Damir, Brdjanovic, ,, Prof.

    2014-05-01

    Since the era of industrialization, concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) have tremendously increased in the atmosphere, as a result of the extensive use of fossil fuels, deforestation, improper waste management, transport, and other economic activities (Boer, 2008).This has led to a great accumulation of greenhouse gases, forming a blanket around the Earth which contributes in the so-called "Global Warming". Over the last decades, wastewater treatment has developed strongly and has become a very important asset in mitigating the impact of domestic and industrial effluents on the environment. There are many different forms of wastewater treatment, and one of the most effective treatment technology in terms COD, N and P removal, activated sludge is often criticized for its high energy use. Some other treatment concepts have a more "green" image, but it is not clear whether this image is justified based on their greenhouse gas emission. This study focuses on the estimation of GHG emissions of four different wastewater treatment configurations, both conventional and innovative systems namely: (1) Harnaschpolder, (2) Sneek, (3) EIER-Ouaga and (4) Siddhipur. This analysis is based on COD mass balance, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2006 guidelines for estimating CO2 and CH4, and literature review. Furthermore, the energy requirements for each of the systems were estimated based on energy survey. The study showed that an estimated daily average of 87 g of CO2 equivalent, ranging between 38 to 192 g, was derived to be the per capita CO2 emission for the four different wastewater treatment scenarios. Despite the fact that no electrical energy is used in the treatment process, the GHG emission from EIER Ouaga anaerobic pond systems is found to be the highest compared to the three other scenarios analysed. It was estimated 80% higher than the most favourable scenario (Sneek). Moreover, the results indicate that the GHGs emitted from these WWTPs are

  6. Lunar transportation scenarios utilising the Space Elevator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Engel, Kilian A.

    2005-07-01

    The Space Elevator (SE) concept has begun to receive an increasing amount of attention within the space community over the past couple of years and is no longer widely dismissed as pure science fiction. In light of the renewed interest in a, possibly sustained, human presence on the Moon and the fact that transportation and logistics form the bottleneck of many conceivable lunar missions, it is interesting to investigate what role the SE could eventually play in implementing an efficient Earth to Moon transportation system. The elevator allows vehicles to ascend from Earth and be injected into a trans-lunar trajectory without the use of chemical thrusters, thus eliminating gravity loss, aerodynamic loss and the need of high thrust multistage launch systems. Such a system therefore promises substantial savings of propellant and structural mass and could greatly increase the efficiency of Earth to Moon transportation. This paper analyzes different elevator-based trans-lunar transportation scenarios and characterizes them in terms of a number of benchmark figures. The transportation scenarios include direct elevator-launched trans-lunar trajectories, elevator-launched trajectories via L1 and L2, as well as launch from an Earth-based elevator and subsequent rendezvous with lunar elevators placed either on the near or on the far side of the Moon. The benchmark figures by which the different transfer options are characterized and evaluated include release radius (RR), required Δv, transfer times as well as other factors such as accessibility of different lunar latitudes, frequency of launch opportunities and mission complexity. The performances of the different lunar transfer options are compared with each other as well as with the performance of conventional mission concepts, represented by Apollo.

  7. Lunar transportation scenarios utilising the Space Elevator.

    PubMed

    Engel, Kilian A

    2005-01-01

    The Space Elevator (SE) concept has begun to receive an increasing amount of attention within the space community over the past couple of years and is no longer widely dismissed as pure science fiction. In light of the renewed interest in a, possibly sustained, human presence on the Moon and the fact that transportation and logistics form the bottleneck of many conceivable lunar missions, it is interesting to investigate what role the SE could eventually play in implementing an efficient Earth to Moon transportation system. The elevator allows vehicles to ascend from Earth and be injected into a trans-lunar trajectory without the use of chemical thrusters, thus eliminating gravity loss, aerodynamic loss and the need of high thrust multistage launch systems. Such a system therefore promises substantial savings of propellant and structural mass and could greatly increase the efficiency of Earth to Moon transportation. This paper analyzes different elevator-based trans-lunar transportation scenarios and characterizes them in terms of a number of benchmark figures. The transportation scenarios include direct elevator-launched trans-lunar trajectories, elevator launched trajectories via L1 and L2, as well as launch from an Earth-based elevator and subsequent rendezvous with lunar elevators placed either on the near or on the far side of the Moon. The benchmark figures by which the different transfer options are characterized and evaluated include release radius (RR), required delta v, transfer times as well as other factors such as accessibility of different lunar latitudes, frequency of launch opportunities and mission complexity. The performances of the different lunar transfer options are compared with each other as well as with the performance of conventional mission concepts, represented by Apollo. PMID:16010760

  8. Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines (Final Report)

    EPA Science Inventory

    This report describes the scenarios and models used to generate national-scale housing density scenarios for the conterminous US to the year 2100 as part of the Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project. The report was prepared by the Global Change Research Progra...

  9. Transport simulation of ITER scenarios with driven burn

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Becker, G.

    2000-08-01

    Transport in the ignited reduced cost ITER devices IAM (Intermediate Aspect Ratio Machine) and LAM (Low Aspect Ratio Machine) is explored by self-consistent simulations using a special version of the 1.5 dimensional BALDUR predictive transport code and applying empirical transport coefficients. The main objective of the study is to determine the thermal energy confinement time τE,r required for operation at the design parameters. It is found that the τE,r value of the inductive IAM (with a helium fraction of 9%) is 3.3 s with argon seeding compared with τE,p = 3.0 s predicted by global scalings. For operation at τE,r = τE,p the value of Q = Pfus/Pb must be reduced from 10 to 6.1, where Pfus is the fusion power and Pb is the beam power. The necessary radiative loss from closed flux surfaces is reached in the argon scenario at high and low separatrix densities. The assumption of flat density profiles and high edge densities is supported by simulations using a new scaling law for the anomalous inward drift velocity. A study of the advanced tokamak scenario of IAM resulting in an estimate of the required energy confinement time is also carried out. Simulation of the inductive LAM argon scenario yields τE,r = 4.0 s compared with τE,p = 3.9 s predicted by global scalings. Here operation at τE,p demands a Q value of 8.7.

  10. Future Water-Supply Scenarios, Cape May County, New Jersey, 2003-2050

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lacombe, Pierre J.; Carleton, Glen B.; Pope, Daryll A.; Rice, Donald E.

    2009-01-01

    Stewards of the water supply in New Jersey are interested in developing a plan to supply potable and non-potable water to residents and businesses of Cape May County until at least 2050. The ideal plan would meet projected demands and minimize adverse effects on currently used sources of potable, non-potable, and ecological water supplies. This report documents past and projected potable, non-potable, and ecological water-supply demands. Past and ongoing adverse effects to production and domestic wells caused by withdrawals include saltwater intrusion and water-level declines in the freshwater aquifers. Adverse effects on the ecological water supplies caused by groundwater withdrawals include premature drying of seasonal wetlands, delayed recovery of water levels in the water-table aquifer, and reduced streamflow. To predict the effects of future actions on the water supplies, three baseline and six future scenarios were created and simulated. Baseline Scenarios 1, 2, and 3 represent withdrawals using existing wells projected until 2050. Baseline Scenario 1 represents average 1998-2003 withdrawals, and Scenario 2 represents New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP) full allocation withdrawals. These withdrawals do not meet projected future water demands. Baseline Scenario 3 represents the estimated full build-out water demands. Results of simulations of the three baseline scenarios indicate that saltwater would intrude into the Cohansey aquifer as much as 7,100 feet (ft) to adversely affect production wells used by Lower Township and the Wildwoods, as well as some other near-shore domestic wells; water-level altitudes in the Atlantic City 800-foot sand would decline to -156 ft; base flow in streams would be depleted by 0 to 26 percent; and water levels in the water-table aquifer would decline as much as 0.7ft. [Specific water-level altitudes, land-surface altitudes, and present sea level when used in this report are referenced to the North American

  11. Effects of grid size and aggregation on regional scale landuse scenario calculations using SVAT schemes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bormann, H.

    2006-09-01

    This paper analyses the effect of spatial input data resolution on the simulated effects of regional scale landuse scenarios using the TOPLATS model. A data set of 25 m resolution of the central German Dill catchment (693 km2) and three different landuse scenarios are used for the investigation. Landuse scenarios in this study are field size scenarios, and depending on a specific target field size (0.5 ha, 1.5 ha and 5.0 ha) landuse is determined by optimising economic outcome of agricultural used areas and forest. After an aggregation of digital elevation model, soil map, current landuse and landuse scenarios to 50 m, 75 m, 100 m, 150 m, 200 m, 300 m, 500 m, 1 km and 2 km, water balances and water flow components for a 20 years time period are calculated for the entire Dill catchment as well as for 3 subcatchments without any recalibration. Additionally water balances based on the three landuse scenarios as well as changes between current conditions and scenarios are calculated. The study reveals that both model performance measures (for current landuse) as well as water balances (for current landuse and landuse scenarios) almost remain constant for most of the aggregation steps for all investigated catchments. Small deviations are detected at the resolution of 50 m to 500 m, while significant differences occur at the resolution of 1 km and 2 km which can be explained by changes in the statistics of the input data. Calculating the scenario effects based on increasing grid sizes yields similar results. However, the change effects react more sensitive to data aggregation than simple water balance calculations. Increasing deviations between simulations based on small grid sizes and simulations using grid sizes of 300 m and more are observed. Summarizing, this study indicates that an aggregation of input data for the calculation of regional water balances using TOPLATS type models does not lead to significant errors up to a resolution of 500 m. Focusing on scenario

  12. High water-stressed population estimated by world water resources assessment including human activities under SRES scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kiguchi, M.; Shen, Y.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

    2009-04-01

    In an argument of the reduction and the adaptation for the climate change, the evaluation of the influence by the climate change is important. When we argue in adaptation plan from a damage scale and balance with the cost, it is particularly important. Parry et al (2001) evaluated the risks in shortage of water, malaria, food, the risk of the coast flood by temperature function and clarified the level of critical climate change. According to their evaluation, the population to be affected by the shortage of water suddenly increases in the range where temperature increases from 1.5 to 2.0 degree in 2080s. They showed how much we need to reduce emissions in order to draw-down significantly the number at risk. This evaluation of critical climate change threats and targets of water shortage did not include the water withdrawal divided by water availability. Shen et al (2008a) estimated the water withdrawal of projection of future world water resources according to socio-economic driving factors predicted for scenarios A1b, A2, B1, and B2 of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). However, these results were in function of not temperature but time. The assessment of the highly water-stressed population considered the socioeconomic development is necessary for a function of the temperature. Because of it is easy to understand to need to reduce emission. We present a multi-GCM analysis of the global and regional populations lived in highly water-stressed basin for a function of the temperature using the socioeconomic data and the outputs of GCMs. In scenario A2, the population increases gradually with warming. On the other hand, the future projection population in scenario A1b and B1 increase gradually until the temperature anomaly exceeds around from +1 to +1.5 degree. After that the population is almost constant. From Shen et al (2008b), we evaluated the HWSP and its ratio in the world with temperature function for scenarios A1B, A2, and B1 by the index of W

  13. Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM) III: Scenario analysis

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Huisman, J.A.; Breuer, L.; Bormann, H.; Bronstert, A.; Croke, B.F.W.; Frede, H.-G.; Graff, T.; Hubrechts, L.; Jakeman, A.J.; Kite, G.; Lanini, J.; Leavesley, G.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Lindstrom, G.; Seibert, J.; Sivapalan, M.; Viney, N.R.; Willems, P.

    2009-01-01

    An ensemble of 10 hydrological models was applied to the same set of land use change scenarios. There was general agreement about the direction of changes in the mean annual discharge and 90% discharge percentile predicted by the ensemble members, although a considerable range in the magnitude of predictions for the scenarios and catchments under consideration was obvious. Differences in the magnitude of the increase were attributed to the different mean annual actual evapotranspiration rates for each land use type. The ensemble of model runs was further analyzed with deterministic and probabilistic ensemble methods. The deterministic ensemble method based on a trimmed mean resulted in a single somewhat more reliable scenario prediction. The probabilistic reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method allowed a quantification of the model structure uncertainty in the scenario predictions. It was concluded that the use of a model ensemble has greatly increased our confidence in the reliability of the model predictions. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd.

  14. Development and validation of videotaped scenarios: a method for targeting specific participant groups.

    PubMed

    Noel, Nora E; Maisto, Stephen A; Johnson, James D; Jackson, Lee A; Goings, Christopher D; Hagman, Brett T

    2008-04-01

    Researchers using scenarios often neglect to validate perceived content and salience of embedded stimuli specifically with intended participants, even when such meaning is integral to the study. For example, sex and aggression stimuli are heavily influenced by culture, so participants may not perceive what researchers intended in sexual aggression scenarios. Using four studies, the authors describe the method of scenario validation to produce two videos assessing alcohol-related sexual aggression. Both videos are identical except for the presence in one video of antiforce cues that are extremely salient to the young heterosexual men. Focus groups and questionnaires validate these men's perceptions that (a) the woman was sexually interested, (b) the sexual cues were salient, (c) the antiforce cues were salient (antiaggression video only), and (e) these antiforce cues inhibited acceptance of forced sex. Results show the value of carefully selecting and validating content when assessing socially volatile variables and provide a useful template for developing culturally valid scenarios. PMID:18252938

  15. Development of a Prototype Automation Simulation Scenario Generator for Air Traffic Management Software Simulations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Khambatta, Cyrus F.

    2007-01-01

    A technique for automated development of scenarios for use in the Multi-Center Traffic Management Advisor (McTMA) software simulations is described. The resulting software is designed and implemented to automate the generation of simulation scenarios with the intent of reducing the time it currently takes using an observational approach. The software program is effective in achieving this goal. The scenarios created for use in the McTMA simulations are based on data taken from data files from the McTMA system, and were manually edited before incorporation into the simulations to ensure accuracy. Despite the software s overall favorable performance, several key software issues are identified. Proposed solutions to these issues are discussed. Future enhancements to the scenario generator software may address the limitations identified in this paper.

  16. Ontology-based Software for Generating Scenarios for Characterizing Searches for Nuclear Materials

    SciTech Connect

    Ward, Richard C; Sorokine, Alexandre; Schlicher, Bob G; Wright, Michael C; Kruse, Kara L

    2011-01-01

    A software environment was created in which ontologies are used to significantly expand the number and variety of scenarios for special nuclear materials (SNM) detection based on a set of simple generalized initial descriptions. A framework was built that combined advanced reasoning from ontologies with geographical and other data sources to generate a much larger list of specific detailed descriptions from a simple initial set of user-input variables. This presentation shows how basing the scenario generation on a process of inferencing from multiple ontologies, including a new SNM Detection Ontology (DO) combined with data extraction from geodatabases, provided the desired significant variability of scenarios for testing search algorithms, including unique combinations of variables not previously expected. The various components of the software environment and the resulting scenarios generated will be discussed.

  17. Extreme Climate Event Trends: The Data Mining and Evaluation of the A1FI Scenario for 2000???2100

    SciTech Connect

    Erickson III, David J; Ganguly, Auroop R; Steinhaeuser, Karsten J K; Branstetter, Marcia L; Oglesby, Robert; Hoffman, Forrest M; Buja, Lawrence

    2008-01-01

    The authors discuss the implications and resulting alterations of the hydrologic cycle as Earth climate evolves from 2000-2100. Climate simulations based on the assumptions implicit in the A1F1 scenario for the period 2000-2100 using CCSM3 are analyzed. In particular, we will assess the changes in the surface latent and sensible heat energy budget, the Indian regional water budgets including trends in the timing and duration of the Indian monsoon and the resulting impacts on mean river flow and hydroelectric power generation potential. These analyses will also be examined within the context of heat index, droughts, floods and related estimates of societal robustness and resiliency. We will interpret these new A1F1 results within the context of the previous climate simulations based on the SRES A2 and B1 scenarios forced with land cover and atmospheric CO2. Analyses of historical records in the context of the Indian Monsoon Rainfall (IMR) have suggested an evolving relation of IMR with natural climate variability caused by El Nino events. We will report on the combined effects of natural climate variability and global warming on IMR and assess the trend of extreme rain and temperature events in a warming environment.

  18. Regional ocean climate change scenarios for the Mediterranean Sea: assessing the uncertainties along the 21st century.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Somot, S.; Sevault, F.; Déqué, M.; Herrmann, M.; Dubois, C.; Aznar, R.; Padorno, E.; Alvarez-Fanjul, E.; Jorda, G.; Marcos, M.; Gomis, D.

    2012-04-01

    consistent scenario simulations previously run with low resolution coupled GCMs (near-Atlantic water characteristics, SST for the relaxation) or high resolution RCMs (fluxes, river, Black Sea). The 1961-2100 temporal evolution of the air-sea fluxes, the freshwater inputs, the Gibraltar strait transports, the surface water characteristics, the deep-water formation process, the Mediterranean thermohaline circulation, the heat and salt content and the sea level are analyzed. In addition, the 7-simulation ensemble allows to study the impact of the scenario (B1, A2, A1B), of the regional atmosphere forcing, of the rivers and of the near-Atlantic characteristics. One of the main goal of this study is to assess the robustness of previous results obtained with only one set of regional models and one scenario (Thorpe and Bigg 2000, Somot et al. 2006, Tsimplis et al. 2008).

  19. Towards realistic Holocene land cover scenarios: integration of archaeological, palynological and geomorphological records and comparison to global land cover scenarios.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Brue, Hanne; Verstraeten, Gert; Broothaerts, Nils; Notebaert, Bastiaan

    2016-04-01

    six alluvial sites. This comparison drastically reduces the number of realistic land cover scenarios for various cultural periods. REVEALS based land cover histories provide more accurate estimates of Holocene sediment fluxes compared to global land cover scenarios (KK10 and HYDE 3.1). Both global land cover scenarios produce erroneous results when applied at their original coarse scale resolution. However, spatially allocating KK10 land cover data to a finer spatial resolution increases its performance, whereas this is not the case for HYDE 3.1. Results suggest that KK10 also offers a more realistic history of human impact than HYDE 3.1 although it overestimates human impact in the Belgian Loess Belt prior to the Roman Age, whereas it underestimates human impact from the Medieval Period onwards.

  20. Scenario generation for stochastic optimization problems via the sparse grid method

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, Michael; Mehrotra, Sanjay; Papp, David

    2015-04-19

    We study the use of sparse grids in the scenario generation (or discretization) problem in stochastic programming problems where the uncertainty is modeled using a continuous multivariate distribution. We show that, under a regularity assumption on the random function involved, the sequence of optimal objective function values of the sparse grid approximations converges to the true optimal objective function values as the number of scenarios increases. The rate of convergence is also established. We treat separately the special case when the underlying distribution is an affine transform of a product of univariate distributions, and show how the sparse grid method can be adapted to the distribution by the use of quadrature formulas tailored to the distribution. We numerically compare the performance of the sparse grid method using different quadrature rules with classic quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) methods, optimal rank-one lattice rules, and Monte Carlo (MC) scenario generation, using a series of utility maximization problems with up to 160 random variables. The results show that the sparse grid method is very efficient, especially if the integrand is sufficiently smooth. In such problems the sparse grid scenario generation method is found to need several orders of magnitude fewer scenarios than MC and QMC scenario generation to achieve the same accuracy. As a result, it is indicated that the method scales well with the dimension of the distribution--especially when the underlying distribution is an affine transform of a product of univariate distributions, in which case the method appears scalable to thousands of random variables.

  1. Scenarios of long-term river runoff changes within Russian large river basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Georgiadi, A. G.; Koronkevich, N. I.; Milyukova, I. P.; Kislov, A. V.; Barabanova, E. A.

    2010-12-01

    The approach for long-term scenario projection of river runoff changes for Russian large river basins in XXI century includes method for scenario estimations for range of probable climatic changes, based on generalization of results of the calculations executed on ensemble of global climatic models and physical-statistical downscaling of their results are developed for mountain regions; hydrological model; method of alternative scenario estimations for water management complex transformation and GIS technologies. The suggested methodology allows to develop long-term scenario projection for: (1) changes of river runoff in large river basins as a result of climate changes and (2) transformations of the water management complex caused by social-economic changes, occurring in the country and their influence on river runoff. As one of the bases of methodology is used model of monthly water balance of RAS Institute of Geography (Georgiadi, Milyukova, 2000, 2002, 2006, 2009). As the climatic scenario the range of probable climatic changes which is estimated by results of calculations for deviations of climatic elements from their recent values which have been carried out on ensemble of global climatic models based on the two most contrasting scenario globally averaged air temperature changes is used. As ensemble of climatic scenarios results of the calculations executed on 10 global climatic models, included in the program of last experiment 20C3M-20th Century Climate in Coupled Models (Meehl et al., 2007), is used. The method for long-term scenario projection for transformation of water management complex characteristics and water consumption was developed. The method includes several blocks (Koronkevich, 1990, Koronkevich et al., 2009): growth of the population and development of an economy; different ways of use and protection of waters, in view of different technologies of prevention and decreasing of pollution of water resources. Development of scenarios assumes pre

  2. Scenario-based approach to risk analysis in support of cyber security

    SciTech Connect

    Gertman, D. I.; Folkers, R.; Roberts, J.

    2006-07-01

    The US infrastructure is continually challenged by hostile nation states and others who would do us harm. Cyber vulnerabilities and weaknesses are potential targets and are the result of years of construction and technological improvement in a world less concerned with security than is currently the case. As a result, cyber attack presents a class of challenges for which we are just beginning to prepare. What has been done in the nuclear, chemical and energy sectors as a means of anticipating and preparing for randomly occurring accidents and off-normal events is to develop scenarios as a means by which to prioritize and quantify risk and to take action. However, the number of scenarios risk analysts can develop is almost limitless. How do we ascertain which scenario has the greatest merit? One of the more important contributions of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) has been to quantify the initiating event probability associated with various classes of accidents; and to quantify the occurrence of various conditions, i.e., end-states, as a function of these important accident sequences. Typically, various classes of conditions are represented by scenarios and are quantified in terms of cut sets and binned into end states. For example, the nuclear industry has a well-defined set of initiating events that are studied in assessing risk. The maturation of risk analysis for cyber security from accounting for barriers or looking at conditions statically to one of ascertaining the probability associated with certain events is, in part, dependent upon the adoption of a scenario-based approach. For example, scenarios take into account threats to personnel and public safety; economic damage, and compromises to major operational and safety functions. Scenarios reflect system, equipment, and component configurations as well as key human-system interactions related to event detection, diagnosis, mitigation and restoration of systems. As part of a cyber attack directed toward

  3. Discrepant Results in a 2-D Marble Collision

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kalajian, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Video analysis of 2-D collisions is an excellent way to investigate conservation of linear momentum. The often-desired experimental design goal is to minimize the momentum loss in order to demonstrate the conservation law. An air table with colliding pucks is an ideal medium for this experiment, but such equipment is beyond the budget of many…

  4. Statistical downscaling and future scenario generation of temperatures for Pakistan Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kazmi, Dildar Hussain; Li, Jianping; Rasul, Ghulam; Tong, Jiang; Ali, Gohar; Cheema, Sohail Babar; Liu, Luliu; Gemmer, Marco; Fischer, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    Finer climate change information on spatial scale is required for impact studies than that presently provided by global or regional climate models. It is especially true for regions like South Asia with complex topography, coastal or island locations, and the areas of highly heterogeneous land-cover. To deal with the situation, an inexpensive method (statistical downscaling) has been adopted. Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) employed for downscaling of daily minimum and maximum temperature data of 44 national stations for base time (1961-1990) and then the future scenarios generated up to 2099. Observed as well as Predictors (product of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) data were calibrated and tested on individual/multiple basis through linear regression. Future scenario was generated based on HadCM3 daily data for A2 and B2 story lines. The downscaled data has been tested, and it has shown a relatively strong relationship with the observed in comparison to ECHAM5 data. Generally, the southern half of the country is considered vulnerable in terms of increasing temperatures, but the results of this study projects that in future, the northern belt in particular would have a possible threat of increasing tendency in air temperature. Especially, the northern areas (hosting the third largest ice reserves after the Polar Regions), an important feeding source for Indus River, are projected to be vulnerable in terms of increasing temperatures. Consequently, not only the hydro-agricultural sector but also the environmental conditions in the area may be at risk, in future.

  5. Regional climate change scenarios applied to viticultural zoning in Mendoza, Argentina

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cabré, María Fernanda; Quénol, Hervé; Nuñez, Mario

    2016-01-01

    Due to the importance of the winemaking sector in Mendoza, Argentina, the assessment of future scenarios for viticulture is of foremost relevance. In this context, it is important to understand how temperature increase and precipitation changes will impact on grapes, because of changes in grapevine phenology and suitability wine-growing regions must be understood as an indicator of climate change. The general objective is to classify the suitable areas of viticulture in Argentina for the current and future climate using the MM5 regional climate change simulations. The spatial distribution of annual mean temperature, annual rainfall, and some bioclimatic indices has been analyzed for the present (1970-1989) and future (2080-2099) climate under SRES A2 emission scenario. In general, according to projected average growing season temperature and Winkler index classification, the regional model estimates (i) a reduction of cool areas, (ii) a westward and southward displacement of intermediate and warm suitability areas, and (iii) the arise of new suitability regions (hot and very hot areas) over Argentina. In addition, an increase of annual accumulated precipitation is projected over the center-west of Argentina. Similar pattern of change is modeled for growing season, but with lower intensity. Furthermore, the evaluation of projected seasonal precipitation shows a little precipitation increase over Cuyo and center of Argentina in summer and a little precipitation decrease over Cuyo and northern Patagonia in winter. Results show that Argentina has a great potential for expansion into new suitable vineyard areas by the end of twenty-first century, particularly due to projected displacement to higher latitudes for most present suitability winegrowing regions. Even though main conclusions are based on one global-regional model downscaling, this approach provides valuable information for implementing proper and diverse adaptation measures in the Argentinean viticultural

  6. Magnetic Nozzle and Plasma Detachment Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Breizman, Boris

    2007-11-01

    Some plasma propulsion concepts rely on a strong magnetic field to guide the plasma flow through the thruster nozzle. The question then arises of how the magnetically controlled plasma can detach from the spacecraft. This talk presents a magnetohydrodynamic detachment scenario in which the plasma stretches the magnetic field lines to infinity [1]. Such a scenario is of particular interest for high-power thrusters. As plasma flows along the magnetic field lines, the originally sub-Alfv'enic flow becomes super-Alfv'enic: this transition is similar to what occurs in the solar wind [2]. In order to describe the detachment quantitatively, the ideal MHD equations have been solved analytically for a plasma flow in a slowly diverging nozzle. The solution exhibits a well-behaved transition from sub- to super- Alfv'enic flow inside the nozzle and a rarefaction wave at the edge of the outgoing flow. The magnetic field in the detached plume is almost entirely due to the plasma currents. It is shown that efficient detachment is feasible if the nozzle is sufficiently long. In order to extend the detachment model beyond the idealizations of analytical theory, a Lagrangian fluid code has been developed to solve steady-stated MHD equations and to optimize nozzle efficiency by adjusting the magnetic coil configuration. This numerical tool enables broad parameter scan with modest computational requirements (single workstation). The code has been benchmarked against the idealized analytical picture of plasma detachment and then used to investigate more realistic nozzle configurations that are not analytically tractable. Most recently, the code has been used to interpret experimental data from the Detachment Demonstration Experiment (DDEX) [3] facility at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. In collabotation with: M. Tushentsov, A. Arefiev, R. Bengtson, J.Meyers (University of Texas at Austin), D. Chavers, C. Dobson, J. Jones (Marshall Space Flight Center), B.Schuettpelz, (University of

  7. Future Scenarios for Fission Based Reactors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    David, S.

    2005-04-01

    The coming century will see the exhaustion of standard fossil fuels, coal, gas and oil, which today represent 75% of the world energy production. Moreover, their use will have caused large-scale emission of greenhouse gases (GEG), and induced global climate change. This problem is exacerbated by a growing world energy demand. In this context, nuclear power is the only GEG-free energy source available today capable of responding significantly to this demand. Some scenarios consider a nuclear energy production of around 5 Gtoe in 2050, wich would represent a 20% share of the world energy supply. Present reactors generate energy from the fission of U-235 and require around 200 tons of natural Uranium to produce 1GWe.y of energy, equivalent to the fission of one ton of fissile material. In a scenario of a significant increase in nuclear energy generation, these standard reactors will consume the whole of the world's estimated Uranium reserves in a few decades. However, natural Uranium or Thorium ore, wich are not themselves fissile, can produce a fissile material after a neutron capture ( 239Pu and 233U respectively). In a breeder reactor, the mass of fissile material remains constant, and the fertile ore is the only material to be consumed. In this case, only 1 ton of natural ore is needed to produce 1GWe.y. Thus, the breeding concept allows optimal use of fertile ore and development of sustainable nuclear energy production for several thousand years into the future. Different sustainable nuclear reactor concepts are studied in the international forum "generation IV". Different types of coolant (Na, Pb and He) are studied for fast breeder reactors based on the Uranium cycle. The thermal Thorium cycle requires the use of a liquid fuel, which can be reprocessed online in order to extract the neutron poisons. This paper presents these different sustainable reactors, based on the Uranium or Thorium fuel cycles and will compare the different options in term of fissile

  8. Parameterization of Buoyancy Effects in Generic PWR Boron Dilution Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Galindo-Garcia, Ivan F.; Cotton, Mark A.; Axcell, Brian P.

    2006-07-01

    A computational investigation is undertaken into the role of buoyancy in a PWR boron dilution transient following a postulated Small Break Loss of Coolant Accident (SB-LOCA). In the scenario envisaged there is flow of de-borated and relatively high temperature water from a single cold leg into the downcomer; flow rates are typical of natural circulation conditions. The study focuses upon the development of boron concentration distributions in the downcomer and adopts a 3D-unsteady formulation of the mean flow equations in combination with the standard high-Reynolds-number k-{epsilon} turbulence model. It is found that the Richardson number (Ri = Gr/Re{sup 2}) is the most important group parameterizing the course of a concentration transient. At Ri values characterizing a 'baseline' scenario the results indicate that there is a stable, circumferentially-uniform, descent through the downcomer of a stratified region of low-borated fluid. Qualitatively the same behaviour is found at higher Richardson number, although at Ri values of approximately one-fifth the baseline level there is evidence of large-scale mixing and a consequent absence of concentration stratification. (authors)

  9. Investigating conceptions of intentional action by analyzing participant generated scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Skulmowski, Alexander; Bunge, Andreas; Cohen, Bret R.; Kreilkamp, Barbara A. K.; Troxler, Nicole

    2015-01-01

    We describe and report on results of employing a new method for analyzing lay conceptions of intentional and unintentional action. Instead of asking people for their conceptual intuitions with regard to construed scenarios, we asked our participants to come up with their own scenarios and to explain why these are examples of intentional or unintentional actions. By way of content analysis, we extracted contexts and components that people associated with these action types. Our participants associated unintentional actions predominantly with bad outcomes for all persons involved and linked intentional actions more strongly to positive outcomes, especially concerning the agent. People’s conceptions of intentional action seem to involve more aspects than commonly assumed in philosophical models of intentional action that solely stress the importance of intentions, desires, and beliefs. The additional aspects include decisions and thoughts about the action. In addition, we found that the criteria that participants generated for unintentional actions are not a mere inversion of those used in explanations for intentional actions. Associations between involuntariness and unintentional action seem to be stronger than associations between aspects of voluntariness and intentional action. PMID:26594182

  10. Persisting cold extremes under 21st-century warming scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Kodra, Evan A; Steinhaeuser, Karsten J K; Ganguly, Auroop R

    2011-01-01

    Analyses of climate model simulations and observations reveal that extreme cold events are likely to persist across each land-continent even under 21st-century warming scenarios. The grid-based intensity, duration and frequency of cold extreme events are calculated annually through three indices: the coldest annual consecutive three-day average of daily maximum temperature, the annual maximum of consecutive frost days, and the total number of frost days. Nine global climate models forced with a moderate greenhouse-gas emissions scenario compares the indices over 2091 2100 versus 1991 2000. The credibility of model-simulated cold extremes is evaluated through both bias scores relative to reanalysis data in the past and multi-model agreement in the future. The number of times the value of each annual index in 2091 2100 exceeds the decadal average of the corresponding index in 1991 2000 is counted. The results indicate that intensity and duration of grid-based cold extremes, when viewed as a global total, will often be as severe as current typical conditions in many regions, but the corresponding frequency does not show this persistence. While the models agree on the projected persistence of cold extremes in terms of global counts, regionally, inter-model variability and disparity in model performance tends to dominate. Our findings suggest that, despite a general warming trend, regional preparedness for extreme cold events cannot be compromised even towards the end of the century.

  11. Evolution of dwarf galaxies simulated in the cosmological LCDM scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gonzalez, Alejandro; Colin, Pedro; Avila-Reese, Vladimir; Rodriguez-Puebla, Aldo; Valenzuela, Octavio

    2014-03-01

    We present results from numerical simulations of low-mass galaxies with the aim to explore the way their stellar masses are assembled. We analyze how the mass assembly histories of the parent halo determine the growth of their host galaxy and its implications on the current paradigm of formation and evolution of low-mass structures in the LCDM scenario. We have found that low-mass galaxies simulated in this scenario assemble their stellar masses following roughly the dark matter halo assembly, which seems to be in tension with the downsizing trend suggested by current observational inferences. We show that there is no more room to increase the strength of feedback from astrophysical processes in order to deviate strongly the stellar mass assembly from the dark halo one, as has been recently invoked to solve some of the potential issues faced by CDM-based simulations of dwarf galaxies. Alejandro González acknowledges finacial support from UNAM, Fundacion UNAM, and the APS to attend this meeting.

  12. Necrobiosis lipoidica: A clinicopathological study in the Indian scenario

    PubMed Central

    Thomas, Mary; Khopkar, Uday Sharadchandra

    2013-01-01

    Context: Necrobiosis lipoidica (NL) is a chronic granulomatous dermatitis that is commonly associated with diabetes mellitus. Most of the current knowledge about this entity is from western literature. Aims: This study evaluates the clinicohistological features of NL in an Indian scenario. Materials and Methods: We retrospectively reviewed clinical features, associated comorbidities, and biopsies of all patients with NL over a period of one year. Results: Five cases of NL were seen during the duration of the study. The preliminary clinical diagnosis ranged from sarcoidosis to tinea incognito. The commonest clinical presentation in the Indian scenario was of asymptomatic erythematous to skin-colored plaques and nodules on the shins with or without central atrophy. The most common site of involvement was the shin (3 of 5 patients). NL was associated with Diabetes mellitus in only two cases, both of whom were male patients. On histology, various patterns of inflammation were seen including the palisading, interstitial, and mixed granulomatous infiltrates. One patient had sarcoidal granulomas in association with an interstitial pattern. Features seen consistently in all cases include perivascular lymphoplasmacytic infiltrates, interstitial lymphocytic infiltrates, and fibroplasia. Interstitial mucin deposition was not observed in any of the biopsies. Conclusion: The diagnosis of NL was missed in most cases due to the rarity of the disease, absence of concomitant diabetes, and atypical presentations. Histology was a useful tool in clinching the diagnosis. PMID:24350007

  13. Raman resonance in iron-based superconductors: The magnetic scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hinojosa, Alberto; Cai, Jiashen; Chubukov, Andrey V.

    2016-02-01

    We perform theoretical analysis of polarization-sensitive Raman spectroscopy on NaFe1 -xCoxAs , EuFe 2 As2 , SrFe2As2 , and Ba (Fe1 -xCox )2As2 , focusing on two features seen in the B1 g symmetry channel (in one Fe unit cell notation): the strong temperature dependence of the static, uniform Raman response in the normal state and the existence of a collective mode in the superconducting state. We show that both features can be explained by the coupling of fermions to pairs of magnetic fluctuations via the Aslamazov-Larkin process. We first analyze magnetically mediated Raman intensity at the leading two-loop order and then include interactions between pairs of magnetic fluctuations. We show that the full Raman intensity in the B1 g channel can be viewed as the result of the coupling of light to Ising-nematic susceptibility via Aslamazov-Larkin process. We argue that the singular temperature dependence in the normal state is the combination of the temperature dependencies of the Aslamazov-Larkin vertex and of Ising-nematic susceptibility. We discuss two scenario for the resonance below Tc. One is the resonance due to development of a pole in the fully renormalized Ising-nematic susceptibility. Another is orbital excitonic scenario, in which spin fluctuations generate attractive interaction between low-energy fermions.

  14. Emergent scenario in the Einstein-Cartan theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Qihong; Wu, Puxun; Yu, Hongwei

    2015-05-01

    We study the emergent scenario, which is proposed to avoid the big bang singularity, in the Einstein-Cartan (EC) theory with a positive cosmological constant and a perfect fluid by analyzing the existence and stability of the Einstein static (ES) solutions. We find that there is no stable ES solution for a spatially flat or open universe. However, for a spatially closed universe, the stable ES solution does exist, and in the same existence parameter regions, there also exists an unstable one. With the slow decrease of the equation of state w of the perfect fluid, the stable and unstable critical points move close gradually and coincide once w reaches a critical value, so that the stable critical point becomes an unstable one. As a result, if w approaches a constant at t →-∞, the universe can stay at the stable ES state past eternally, and furthermore it can naturally exit from this state and evolve into an inflationary era if w decreases slowly as time goes forward. Therefore, the emergent scenario that avoids the big bang singularity can be successfully implemented in the EC theory of gravity.

  15. Physical simulation for low-energy astrobiology environmental scenarios.

    PubMed

    Gormly, Sherwin; Adams, V D; Marchand, Eric

    2003-01-01

    Speculations about the extent of life of independent origin and the potential for sustaining Earth-based life in subsurface environments on both Europa and Mars are of current and relevant interest. Theoretical modeling based on chemical energetics has demonstrated potential options for viable biochemical metabolism (metabolic pathways) in these types of environments. Also, similar environments on Earth show microbial activity. However, actual physical simulation testing of specific environments is required to confidently determine the interplay of various physical and chemical parameters on the viability of relevant metabolic pathways. This testing is required to determine the potential to sustain life in these environments on a specific scenario by scenario basis. This study examines the justification, design, and fabrication of, as well as the culture selection and screening for, a psychrophilic/halophilic/anaerobic digester. This digester is specifically designed to conform to physical testing needs of research relating to potential extent physical environments on Europa and other planetary bodies in the Solar System. The study is a long-term effort and is currently in an early phase, with only screening-level data at this time. Full study results will likely take an additional 2 years. However, researchers in electromagnetic biosignature and in situ instrument development should be aware of the study at this time, as they are invited to participate in planning for future applications of the digester facility. PMID:14987481

  16. Simulation of ITER full-field ICWC scenario in JET: RF physics aspects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lyssoivan, A.; Douai, D.; Koch, R.; Ongena, J.; Philipps, V.; Schüller, F. C.; Van Eester, D.; Wauters, T.; Blackman, T.; Bobkov, V.; Brezinsek, S.; de la Cal, E.; Durodié, F.; Gauthier, E.; Gerbaud, T.; Graham, M.; Jachmich, S.; Joffrin, E.; Kreter, A.; Kyrytsya, V.; Lerche, E.; Lomas, P.; Louche, F.; Maslov, M.; Mayoral, M.-L.; Moiseenko, V.; Monakhov, I.; Pankratov, I.; Paul, M. K.; Pitts, R. A.; Plyusnin, V.; Sergienko, G.; Shimada, M.; Vdovin, V. L.; contributors, JET-EFDA

    2012-07-01

    ITER as a superconducting fusion machine needs efficient wall conditioning techniques for application in the presence of the permanent high toroidal magnetic field for (i) reducing the in-vessel impurity content, (ii) controlling the surface hydrogen isotopic ratio and (iii) mitigating the in-vessel long-term tritium inventory build-up. Encouraging results recently obtained with ion-cyclotron wall conditioning (ICWC) in the present-day tokamaks and stellarators have raised ICWC to the status of one of the most promising techniques available to ITER for routine inter-pulse and overnight conditioning with the ITER main ICRF heating system in the presence of the permanent high toroidal magnetic field. This paper is dedicated to a milestone experiment in ICWC research: the first simulation of ICWC operation in an equivalent ITER full-field scenario and the assessment of the wall conditioning effect on the carbon wall in the largest present-day tokamak JET. In addition, we address in this paper the following topics: (i) an analysis of the radio frequency (RF) physics of ICWC discharges, (ii) the optimization of the operation of ICRF antennas for plasma startup and (iii) an outlook for the performance of ICWC in ITER using the ICRF heating system. Important operational aspects of the conventional ICRF heating system in JET (the so-called A2 antenna system) for use in the ICWC mode are highlighted: (i) the ability of the antenna to ignite the cleaning discharge safely and reliably in different gases, (ii) the capacity of the antennas to couple a large fraction of the RF generator power (>50%) to low-density (≈1016-1018 m-3) plasmas and (iii) the ICRF absorption schemes aimed at improved RF plasma homogeneity and enhanced conditioning effect. Successful optimization of the JET-ICWC discharge parameters (BT = 3.3 T, f = 25 MHz) resulted in a reliable operation of the JET A2 antennas and a high conditioning efficiency in a scenario imitating closely ITER full

  17. Realistic Ground Motion Scenarios: Methodological Approach

    SciTech Connect

    Nunziata, C.; Peresan, A.; Romanelli, F.; Vaccari, F.; Zuccolo, E.; Panza, G. F.

    2008-07-08

    The definition of realistic seismic input can be obtained from the computation of a wide set of time histories, corresponding to possible seismotectonic scenarios. The propagation of the waves in the bedrock from the source to the local laterally varying structure is computed with the modal summation technique, while in the laterally heterogeneous structure the finite difference method is used. The definition of shear wave velocities within the soil cover is obtained from the non-linear inversion of the dispersion curve of group velocities of Rayleigh waves, artificially or naturally generated. Information about the possible focal mechanisms of the sources can be obtained from historical seismicity, based on earthquake catalogues and inversion of isoseismal maps. In addition, morphostructural zonation and pattern recognition of seismogenic nodes is useful to identify areas prone to strong earthquakes, based on the combined analysis of topographic, tectonic, geological maps and satellite photos. We show that the quantitative knowledge of regional geological structures and the computation of realistic ground motion can be a powerful tool for a preventive definition of the seismic hazard in Italy. Then, the formulation of reliable building codes, based on the evaluation of the main potential earthquakes, will have a great impact on the effective reduction of the seismic vulnerability of Italian urban areas, validating or improving the national building code.

  18. Undulator Hall Air Temperature Fault Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Sevilla, J.; Welch, J.; /SLAC

    2010-11-17

    Recent experience indicates that the LCLS undulator segments must not, at any time following tuning, be allowed to change temperature by more than about {+-}2.5 C or the magnetic center will irreversibly shift outside of acceptable tolerances. This vulnerability raises a concern that under fault conditions the ambient temperature in the Undulator Hall might go outside of the safe range and potentially could require removal and retuning of all the segments. In this note we estimate changes that can be expected in the Undulator Hall air temperature for three fault scenarios: (1) System-wide power failure; (2) Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) system shutdown; and (3) HVAC system temperature regulation fault. We find that for either a system-wide power failure or an HVAC system shutdown (with the technical equipment left on), the short-term temperature changes of the air would be modest due to the ability of the walls and floor to act as a heat ballast. No action would be needed to protect the undulator system in the event of a system-wide power failure. Some action to adjust the heat balance, in the case of the HVAC power failure with the equipment left on, might be desirable but is not required. On the other hand, a temperature regulation failure of the HVAC system can quickly cause large excursions in air temperature and prompt action would be required to avoid damage to the undulator system.

  19. UAV team behaviors in operational scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gilmore, John F.; Garbarino, Joseph E.

    2004-09-01

    The Behavior Enhanced Heterogeneous Autonomous Vehicle Environment (BEHAVE) is a distributed system for the command and control of multiple Unmanned Vehicle Systems (UVS) with various sensor payloads (EO, infrared and radar) and mission roles (combat, reconnaissance, penetrator, relay) working in cooperation to fulfill mission goals in light of encountered threats, vehicle damage, and mission redirects. In its current form, BEHAVE provides UVS dynamic route planning/replanning, autonomous vehicle control, platform self-awareness, autonomous threat response, and muti-vehicle cooperation. This paper focuses on BEHAVE's heterogeneous autonomous UVS team cooperation achieved through the transformation of UVS operational doctrine into UVS team behaviors. This level of tactics provides the initial high-level cooperative control guidance and plans for multiple UVSs operating to achieve specific mission goal. BEHAVE's heterogeneous UVS behaviors include inter-vehicle cueing capability on coupled missions based on new threats, targets, and foreshadowing changes in environments, optimizing individual UVS mission roles, enhanced reassignment of mission goals based upon resources consumed and threats encountered, and multi UVS team threat behavior. Threat behaviors include logic incorporated for team scenarios such as drawing out or confusing threats.

  20. The segmented urbilateria: a testable scenario.

    PubMed

    Balavoine, Guillaume; Adoutte, André

    2003-02-01

    The idea that the last common ancestor of bilaterian animals (Urbilateria) was segmented has been raised recently on evidence coming from comparative molecular embryology. Leaving aside the complex debate on the value of genetic evidence, the morphological and developmental evidence in favor of a segmented Urbilateria are discussed in the light of the emerging molecular phylogeny of metazoans. Applying a cladistic character optimization procedure to the question of segmentation is vastly complicated by the problem of defining without ambiguity what segmentation is and to what taxa this definition applies. An ancestral segmentation might have undergone many complex derivations in each different phylum, thus rendering the cladistics approaches problematic. Taking the most general definitions of coelom and segmentation however, some remarkably similar patterns are found across the bilaterian tree in the way segments are formed by the posterior addition of mesodermal segments or somites. Postulating that these striking similarities in mesodermal patterns are ancestral, a scenario for the diversification of bilaterians from a metameric ancestor is presented. Several types of evolutionary mechanisms (specialization, tagmosis, progenesis) operating on a segmented ancestral body plan would explain the rapid emergence of body plans during the Cambrian. We finally propose to test this hypothesis by comparing genes involved in mesodermal segmentation. PMID:21680418

  1. Scenario of Architectural Education in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dua, S.; Chahal, K. S.

    2014-09-01

    The dictionary meaning of education is to develop mentally and morally. A good holistic architectural education, therefore, is a combination of skills, information, as well as values. It is somewhat unique. The evaluation process is continuous in nature and in addition to the traditional means of assessment, the training in architectural education consists of varied interrelated parts-theory, field visit and studio/workshop. To certain extent the subjective nature of the design studio projects provides challenges and opportunities for both students and faculty members, in terms of acquiring necessary skills at the part of the students, and, necessity to update and upgrade continually with the changing pace at the part of the teachers. Technology continues to grow at a rapid pace; equipping the students to meet the complex demands of the profession; the curriculum structure and focus and value system must facilitate the relationship between general education and specialized study. Architects must acquire and understand the required information and find ways to put it in order and apply it to particular settings especially in this era of MNCs and BPOs. The paper discusses the current scenario of architectural education in India and affirms the need for change in this education from generalized study which had been in practice in twentieth century to a more relevant, specialised, and value-based education addressing technical and humanistic challenges more objectively in these vastly changing, socio-economic and political trends at global and regional levels.

  2. Hospitals in the year 2000: a scenario.

    PubMed

    Foster, J T

    1989-01-01

    Hospitals came into the twentieth century as creations of local, usually altruistic, interests and wrestled with accelerating change throughout the decades. Their success brought third-party financing, employee health plans, and government guarantees for charity care. Success seemed to breed success, and they raced ahead with capital investment in bricks, mortar, and high technology, only to find themselves in increasing trouble as 1990 approached. Writing from the precarious perch of the year 2000, the author views the worsening hospital situation and raises questions about the contradictions of federal interventions, the efforts to create "systems," the plight of small hospitals, and the love-hate role of medical staffs. Offered for consideration is a scenario of a health care crisis in the early 1990s comparable to the savings and loan crisis of 1988. However, this time the federal intervention is not simply in dollars, but, instead, brings on a "health for all" program with national financing and decentralized "district health" management. As in other nations of the world, hospitals become an integral part of the commitment to attack the root causes of ill health. PMID:10296999

  3. Screening closing scenarios for tactical targets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sefcik, Jason A.; Lee, Harry C.; Olson, Teresa L. P.

    2002-07-01

    The first step in an automatic image target acquisition system is determining the location of candidate objects. Screening for targets must also be done within a tactical scenario timeframe. The screening process must only require a portion of the processing workload since other algorithms must execute in the same time frame. The detection of these candidate objects is allocated to two functions within the same algorithm. The first is a pre-screener and other is a clutter rejection component that will categorize the object nomination into target or non-target classes. This paper describes a screener that meets the necessary requirements for tactical operations. It uses the magnitude and direction of the image gradient. Locations are nominated by looking at local neighborhoods in this gradient space. Regions of interest are then selected and various features are extracted. These features are selected both for their information content and their ease of calculation. Using a Bayes approach, target candidates are selected as plausible targets of interest.

  4. Development of exposure scenarios for CERCLA risk assessments at the Savannah River Site

    SciTech Connect

    Nix, D.W.; Immel, J.W. ); Phifer, M.A. . Dept. of Civil Engineering)

    1992-01-01

    A CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment (BRA) is performed to determine if there are any potential risks to human health and the environment from waste unit at SRS. The SRS has numerous waste units to evaluate in the RFMU and CMS/FS programs and, in order to provide a consistent approach, four standard exposure scenarios were developed for exposure assessments to be used in human health risk assessments. The standard exposure scenarios are divided into two temporal categories: (a) Current Land Use in the BRA, and (b) Future Land Use in the RERA. The Current Land Use scenarios consist of the evaluation of human health risk for Industrial Exposure (of a worker not involved in waste unit characterization or remediation), a Trespasser, a hypothetical current On-site Resident, and an Off-site Resident. The Future Land Use scenario considers exposure to an On-site Resident following termination of institutional control in the absence of any remedial action (No Action Alternative), as well as evaluating potential remedial alternatives against the four scenarios from the BRA. A critical facet in the development of a BRA or RERA is the scoping of exposure scenarios that reflect actual conditions at a waste unit, rather than using factors such as EPA Standard Default Exposure Scenarios (OSWER Directive 9285.6-03) that are based on upper-bound exposures that tend to reflect worst case conditions. The use of site-specific information for developing risk assessment exposure scenarios will result in a more realistic estimate of Reasonable Maximum Exposure for SRS waste units.

  5. Development of exposure scenarios for CERCLA risk assessments at the Savannah River Site

    SciTech Connect

    Nix, D.W.; Immel, J.W.; Phifer, M.A.

    1992-12-31

    A CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment (BRA) is performed to determine if there are any potential risks to human health and the environment from waste unit at SRS. The SRS has numerous waste units to evaluate in the RFMU and CMS/FS programs and, in order to provide a consistent approach, four standard exposure scenarios were developed for exposure assessments to be used in human health risk assessments. The standard exposure scenarios are divided into two temporal categories: (a) Current Land Use in the BRA, and (b) Future Land Use in the RERA. The Current Land Use scenarios consist of the evaluation of human health risk for Industrial Exposure (of a worker not involved in waste unit characterization or remediation), a Trespasser, a hypothetical current On-site Resident, and an Off-site Resident. The Future Land Use scenario considers exposure to an On-site Resident following termination of institutional control in the absence of any remedial action (No Action Alternative), as well as evaluating potential remedial alternatives against the four scenarios from the BRA. A critical facet in the development of a BRA or RERA is the scoping of exposure scenarios that reflect actual conditions at a waste unit, rather than using factors such as EPA Standard Default Exposure Scenarios (OSWER Directive 9285.6-03) that are based on upper-bound exposures that tend to reflect worst case conditions. The use of site-specific information for developing risk assessment exposure scenarios will result in a more realistic estimate of Reasonable Maximum Exposure for SRS waste units.

  6. Scenario analysis to vehicular emission reduction in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, China.

    PubMed

    Guo, Xiurui; Fu, Liwei; Ji, Muse; Lang, Jianlei; Chen, Dongsheng; Cheng, Shuiyuan

    2016-09-01

    Motor vehicle emissions are increasingly becoming one of the important factors affecting the urban air quality in China. It is necessary and useful to policy makers to demonstrate the situation given the relevant pollutants reduction measures are taken. This paper predicted the reduction potentials of conventional pollutants (PM10, NOx, CO, HC) under different control strategies and policies in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region during 2011-2020. There are the baseline and 5 control scenarios designed, which presented the different current and future possible vehicular emissions control measures. Future population of different kinds of vehicles were predicted based on the Gompertz model, and vehicle kilometers travelled estimated as well. After that, the emissions reduction under the different scenarios during 2011-2020 could be estimated using emission factors and activity level data. The results showed that, the vehicle population in the BTH region would continue to grow up, especially in Tianjin and Hebei. Comparing the different scenarios, emission standards updating scenario would achieve a substantial reduction and keep rising up for all the pollutants, and the scenario of eliminating high-emission vehicles can reduce emissions more effectively in short-term than in long-term, especially in Beijing. Due to the constraints of existing economical and technical level, the reduction effect of promoting new energy vehicles would not be significant, especially given the consideration of their lifetime impact. The reduction effect of population regulation scenario in Beijing cannot be ignorable and would keep going up for PM10, CO and HC, excluding NOx. Under the integrated scenario considering all the control measures it would achieve the maximum reduction potential of emissions, which means to reduce emissions of PM10, NOx, CO, HC, by 56%, 59%, 48%, 52%, respectively, compared to BAU scenario for the whole BTH region in 2020. PMID:27325548

  7. VEMAP vs VINCERA: A DGVM sensitivity to differences in climate scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bachelet, D.; Lenihan, J.; Drapek, R.; Neilson, R.

    2008-11-01

    The MC1 DGVM has been used in two international model comparison projects, VEMAP (Vegetation Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project) and VINCERA (Vulnerability and Impacts of North American forests to Climate Change: Ecosystem Responses and Adaptation). The latest version of MC1 was run on both VINCERA and VEMAP climate and soil input data to document how a change in the inputs can affect model outcome. We compared simulation results under the two sets of future climate scenarios and reported on how the different inputs can affect vegetation distribution and carbon budget projections. Under all future scenarios, the interior West becomes woodier as warmer temperatures and available moisture allow trees to get established in grasslands areas. Concurrently, warmer and drier weather causes the eastern deciduous and mixed forests to shift to a more open canopy woodland or savanna type while boreal forests disappear almost entirely from the Great Lakes area by the end of the 21st century. While under VEMAP scenarios the model simulated large increases in carbon storage in a future woodier West, the drier VINCERA scenarios accounted for large carbon losses in the east and only moderate gains in the West. But under all future climate scenarios, the total area burned by wildfires increased especially in C4 grasslands under all scenarios and in dry woodlands under VINCERA scenarios. The model simulated non-agricultural lands in the conterminous United States as a source of carbon in the 21st century under the VINCERA future climate scenarios but not VEMAP. However, the magnitude of this carbon source to the atmosphere could be greatly reduced if the CO 2 growth enhancement factor built in the model was enhanced but evidence that all mature forests across the entire country will respond positively to increased atmospheric CO2 is still lacking.

  8. A multivariate copula-based framework for dealing with hazard scenarios and failure probabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salvadori, G.; Durante, F.; De Michele, C.; Bernardi, M.; Petrella, L.

    2016-05-01

    This paper is of methodological nature, and deals with the foundations of Risk Assessment. Several international guidelines have recently recommended to select appropriate/relevant Hazard Scenarios in order to tame the consequences of (extreme) natural phenomena. In particular, the scenarios should be multivariate, i.e., they should take into account the fact that several variables, generally not independent, may be of interest. In this work, it is shown how a Hazard Scenario can be identified in terms of (i) a specific geometry and (ii) a suitable probability level. Several scenarios, as well as a Structural approach, are presented, and due comparisons are carried out. In addition, it is shown how the Hazard Scenario approach illustrated here is well suited to cope with the notion of Failure Probability, a tool traditionally used for design and risk assessment in engineering practice. All the results outlined throughout the work are based on the Copula Theory, which turns out to be a fundamental theoretical apparatus for doing multivariate risk assessment: formulas for the calculation of the probability of Hazard Scenarios in the general multidimensional case (d≥2) are derived, and worthy analytical relationships among the probabilities of occurrence of Hazard Scenarios are presented. In addition, the Extreme Value and Archimedean special cases are dealt with, relationships between dependence ordering and scenario levels are studied, and a counter-example concerning Tail Dependence is shown. Suitable indications for the practical application of the techniques outlined in the work are given, and two case studies illustrate the procedures discussed in the paper.

  9. Randall-Sundrum scenario with bulk dilaton and torsion

    SciTech Connect

    Mukhopadhyaya, Biswarup; Sen, Somasri; SenGupta, Soumitra

    2009-06-15

    We consider a string-inspired torsion-dilaton-gravity action in a Randall-Sundrum braneworld scenario and show that, in an effective four-dimensional theory on the visible brane, the rank-2 antisymmetric Kalb-Ramond field (source of torsion) is exponentially suppressed. The result is similar to our earlier result in [B. Mukhopadhyaya, S. Sen, and S. SenGupta, Phys. Rev. Lett. 89, 121101 (2002); Phys. Rev. Lett. 89, 259902(E) (2002)], where no dilaton was present in the bulk. This offers an explanation of the apparent invisibility of torsion in our space-time. However, in this case the trilinear couplings {approx}TeV{sup -1} between the dilaton and torsion may lead to new signals in TeV-scale experiments, bearing the stamp of extra warped dimensions.

  10. Altering the mechanical scenario to decrease the driving pressure.

    PubMed

    Borges, João Batista; Hedenstierna, Göran; Larsson, Anders; Suarez-Sipmann, Fernando

    2015-01-01

    Ventilator settings resulting in decreased driving pressure (ΔP) are positively associated with survival. How to further foster the potential beneficial mediator effect of a reduced ΔP? One possibility is promoting the active modification of the lung's "mechanical scenario" by means of lung recruitment and positive end-expiratory pressure selection. By taking into account the individual distribution of the threshold-opening airway pressures to achieve maximal recruitment, a redistribution of the tidal volume from overdistended to newly recruited lung occurs. The resulting more homogeneous distribution of transpulmonary pressures may induce a relief of overdistension in the upper regions. The gain in lung compliance after a successful recruitment rescales the size of the functional lung, potentially allowing for a further reduction in ΔP. PMID:26387728

  11. A “midinfrared” scenario for cuprate superconductivity

    PubMed Central

    Leggett, A. J.

    1999-01-01

    I conjecture that the mechanism of superconductivity in the cuprates is a saving, due to the improved screening resulting from Cooper pair formation, of the part of the Coulomb energy associated with long wavelengths and midinfrared frequencies. This scenario is shown to provide a plausible explanation of the trend of transition temperature with layering structure in the Ca-spaced compounds and to predict a spectacularly large decrease in the electron-energy-loss spectroscopy cross-section in the midinfrared region on transition to the superconducting state, as well as less spectacular but still surprisingly large changes in the optical behavior. Existing experimental results appear to be consistent with this picture. PMID:10411881

  12. Scenarios of energy demand and efficiency potential for Bulgaria

    SciTech Connect

    Tzvetanov, P.; Ruicheva, M.; Denisiev, M.

    1996-12-31

    The paper presents aggregated results on macroeconomic and final energy demand scenarios developed within the Bulgarian Country Study on Greenhouse Gas Emissions Mitigation, supported by US Country Studies Program. The studies in this area cover 5 main stages: (1) {open_quotes}Baseline{close_quotes} and {open_quotes}Energy Efficiency{close_quotes} socioeconomic and energy policy philosophy; (2) Modeling of macroeconomic and sectoral development till 2020; (3) Expert assessments on the technological options for energy efficiency increase and GHG mitigation in the Production, Transport and Households and Services Sectors; (4) Bottom-up modeling of final energy demand; and (5) Sectoral and overall energy efficiency potential and policy. Within the Bulgarian Country Study, the presented results have served as a basis for the final integration stage {open_quotes}Assessment of the Mitigation Policy and Measures in the Energy System of Bulgaria{close_quotes}.

  13. The implications of future building scenarios for long-term building energy research and development

    SciTech Connect

    Flynn, W.T.

    1986-12-01

    This report presents a discussion of alternative future scenarios of the building environment to the year 2010 and assesses the implications these scenarios present for long-term building energy R and D. The scenarios and energy R and D implications derived from them are intended to serve as the basis from which a strategic plan can be developed for the management of R and D programs conducted by the Office of Buildings and Community Systems, US Department of Energy. The scenarios and analysis presented here have relevance not only for government R and D programs; on the contrary, it is hoped that the results of this effort will be of interest and useful to researchers in both private and public sector organizations that deal with building energy R and D. Making R and D decisions today based on an analysis that attempts to delineate the nexus of events 25 years in the future are clearly decisions made in the face of uncertainty. Yet, the effective management of R and D programs requires a future-directed understanding of markets, technological developments, and environmental factors, as well as their interactions. The analysis presented in this report is designed to serve that need. Although the probability of any particular scenario actually occurring is uncertain, the scenarios to be presented are sufficiently robust to set bounds within which to examine the interaction of forces that will shape the future building environment.

  14. Comparing population exposure to multiple Washington earthquake scenarios for prioritizing loss estimation studies

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wood, Nathan J.; Ratliff, Jamie L.; Schelling, John; Weaver, Craig S.

    2014-01-01

    Scenario-based, loss-estimation studies are useful for gauging potential societal impacts from earthquakes but can be challenging to undertake in areas with multiple scenarios and jurisdictions. We present a geospatial approach using various population data for comparing earthquake scenarios and jurisdictions to help emergency managers prioritize where to focus limited resources on data development and loss-estimation studies. Using 20 earthquake scenarios developed for the State of Washington (USA), we demonstrate how a population-exposure analysis across multiple jurisdictions based on Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) classes helps emergency managers understand and communicate where potential loss of life may be concentrated and where impacts may be more related to quality of life. Results indicate that certain well-known scenarios may directly impact the greatest number of people, whereas other, potentially lesser-known, scenarios impact fewer people but consequences could be more severe. The use of economic data to profile each jurisdiction’s workforce in earthquake hazard zones also provides additional insight on at-risk populations. This approach can serve as a first step in understanding societal impacts of earthquakes and helping practitioners to efficiently use their limited risk-reduction resources.

  15. Evaluating pharmacists' ability to counsel on tobacco cessation using two standardized patient scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Martin, Beth A.; Chewning, Betty A.

    2011-01-01

    Objectives To evaluate the impact that role-playing two pre/post standardized patient scenarios within a tobacco cessation training program had on pharmacists' counseling skills. Second, to analyze the validity of the observation coding tool used to evaluate pharmacist's role-play performance. Methods Pharmacists performed two role-playing scenarios which incorporated national guidelines, the 5A's counseling process, and the “preparation” and “action” phases of the transtheoretical model. Pharmacists' performance was evaluated with an observation coding tool. Results Pharmacists' (n=25) counseling performance improved significantly post-training (p<0.02: Action Scenario; p<0.004: Preparation Scenario). More than 50% of pharmacists provided patient-directed tobacco consultation services in the one year following training. The observation tool score for the “action phase” scenario was highly associated with pharmacists' subsequent delivery of tobacco cessation services in community practice. Conclusion Role-playing facilitated pharmacists' skill development. The evaluation tool and Action Scenario may be powerful for predicting pharmacists' delivery of tobacco cessation services. Practice Implications Incorporating role-playing and structured tools for performance evaluation can help enhance pharmacist performance during training and predict service delivery in community practice. Together they could facilitate tailored feedback to help pharmacists struggling with the difficult task of extending cognitive service roles in practice. PMID:21237610

  16. Scenario Simulation-Based Assessment of Trip Difficulty for Urban Residents under Rainstorm Waterlogging

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Peng; Zhang, Jiquan; Jiang, Xinyu; Liu, Xingpeng; Bao, Yulong; Sun, Yingyue

    2012-01-01

    In this study, an experiment was performed to assess the trip difficulty for urban residents of different age groups walking in various depths of water, and the data were corroborated with the real urban rainstorm waterlogging scenarios in downtown (Daoli district) Ha-Erbin (China). Mathematical models of urban rainstorm waterlogging were constructed using scenario simulation methods, aided by the GIS spatial analysis technology and hydrodynamic analysis of the waterway systems in the study area. Then these models were used to evaluate the impact of waterlogging on the safety of residents walking in the affected area. Results are summarized as: (1) for an urban rainstorm waterlogging scenario reoccurring once every 10 years, three grid regions would have waterlogging above 0.5 m moving at a velocity of 1.5 m/s. Under this scenario, waterlogging would accumulate on traffic roads only in small areas, affecting the safety and mobility of residents walking in the neighborhood; (2) for an urban rainstorm waterlogging scenario reoccurring once every 20 years, 13 grids experienced the same waterlogging situation affecting a larger area of the city; (3) for an urban rainstorm waterlogging scenario reoccurring once every 50 years, 86 grid regions were affected (waterlogging above 0.5 m moving at 1.5 m/s), and those areas would become impassable for residents. PMID:22829790

  17. Impacts and responses to sea-level rise: a global analysis of the SRES scenarios over the twenty-first century.

    PubMed

    Nicholls, Robert J; Tol, Richard S J

    2006-04-15

    Taking the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) climate and socio-economic scenarios (A1FI, A2, B1 and B2 'future worlds'), the potential impacts of sea-level rise through the twenty-first century are explored using complementary impact and economic analysis methods at the global scale. These methods have never been explored together previously. In all scenarios, the exposure and hence the impact potential due to increased flooding by sea-level rise increases significantly compared to the base year (1990). While mitigation reduces impacts, due to the lagged response of sea-level rise to atmospheric temperature rise, impacts cannot be avoided during the twenty-first century by this response alone. Cost-benefit analyses suggest that widespread protection will be an economically rational response to land loss due to sea-level rise in the four SRES futures that are considered. The most vulnerable future worlds to sea-level rise appear to be the A2 and B2 scenarios, which primarily reflects differences in the socio-economic situation (coastal population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and GDP/capita), rather than the magnitude of sea-level rise. Small islands and deltaic settings stand out as being more vulnerable as shown in many earlier analyses. Collectively, these results suggest that human societies will have more choice in how they respond to sea-level rise than is often assumed. However, this conclusion needs to be tempered by recognition that we still do not understand these choices and significant impacts remain possible. Future worlds which experience larger rises in sea-level than considered here (above 35 cm), more extreme events, a reactive rather than proactive approach to adaptation, and where GDP growth is slower or more unequal than in the SRES futures remain a concern. There is considerable scope for further research to better understand these diverse issues. PMID:16537156

  18. Dust Plume Modeling at Fort Bliss: Full Training Scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Chapman, Elaine G.; Rishel, Jeremy P.; Rutz, Frederick C.; Seiple, Timothy E.; Newsom, Rob K.; Allwine, K Jerry

    2006-09-26

    The potential for air quality impacts from heavy mechanized vehicles operating in the training ranges and on the unpaved main supply routes at Fort Bliss is being investigated. The investigation uses the atmospheric modeling system DUSTRAN to simulate fugitive dust emission and dispersion from typical activities occurring on the installation. This report conveys the results of DUSTRAN simulations conducted using a “Full Training” scenario developed by Fort Bliss personnel. he Full Training scenario includes simultaneous off-road activities of two full Heavy Brigade Combat Teams (HCBTs) and one HCBT battalion on three training ranges. Simulations were conducted for the six-day period, April 25-30, 2005, using previously archived meteorological records. Simulation results are presented in the form of 24-hour average PM10 plots and peak 1-hour PM10 concentration plots, where the concentrations represent contributions resulting from the specified military vehicular activities, not total ambient PM10 concentrations. Results indicate that the highest PM10 contribution concentrations occurred on April 30 when winds were light and variable. Under such conditions, lofted particulates generated by vehicular movement stay in the area of generation and are not readily dispersed. The effect of training duration was investigated by comparing simulations with vehicular activity extending over a ten hour period (0700 to 1700 MST) with simulations where vehicular activity was compressed into a one hour period (0700 to 0800 MST). Compressing all vehicular activity into one hour led to higher peak one-hour and 24-hour average concentration contributions, often substantially higher.

  19. Plant distributions in the southwestern United States; a scenario assessment of the modern-day and future distribution ranges of 166 Species

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thomas, Kathryn A.; Guertin, Patricia P.; Gass, Leila

    2012-01-01

    The authors developed spatial models of the predicted modern-day suitable habitat (SH) of 166 dominant and indicator plant species of the southwestern United States (herein referred to as the Southwest) and then conducted a coarse assessment of potential future changes in the distribution of their suitable habitat under three climate-change scenarios for two time periods. We used Maxent-based spatial modeling to predict the modern-day and future scenarios of SH for each species in an over 342-million-acre area encompassing all or parts of six states in the Southwest--Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. Modern-day SH models were predicted by our using 26 annual and monthly average temperature and precipitation variables, averaged for the years 1971-2000. Future SH models were predicted for each species by our using six climate models based on application of the average of 16 General Circulation Models to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios B1, A1B, and A2 for two time periods, 2040 to 2069 and 2070 and 2100, referred to respectively as the 2050 and 2100 time periods. The assessment examined each species' vulnerability to loss of modern-day SH under future climate scenarios, potential to gain SH under future climate scenarios, and each species' estimated risk as a function of both vulnerability and potential gains. All 166 species were predicted to lose modern-day SH in the future climate change scenarios. In the 2050 time period, nearly 30 percent of the species lost 75 percent or more of their modern-day suitable habitat, 21 species gained more new SH than their modern-day SH, and 30 species gained less new SH than 25 percent of their modern-day SH. In the 2100 time period, nearly half of the species lost 75 percent or more of their modern-day SH, 28 species gained more new SH than their modern-day SH, and 34 gained less new SH than 25 percent of their modern-day SH. Using nine risk categories we found only two

  20. The future scenario for international labour migration.

    PubMed

    Tassello, G

    1989-01-01

    The study of migration helps us to grasp the social evolution and the political and economic strategies required to meet the new economic trends. The issue of permanent or temporary migration, long debated in the 1960s, now tends to disappear. Migrants are compared more to commuters on the international labor markets. Besides the economic out-migration flows, there are also the refugee migrations or the ever present phenomenon of persons uprooted from their home country as a result of natural disasters and famine. The worldwide economic crisis in the 1970s, the recession affecting some industrialized countries which used to be traditional labor-importing countries have barred many potential immigrant workers from entering these countries. If, on 1 hand, the persistent high rate of unemployment due to the transformation of industry and the computerization process has caused the dismissal of numerous unskilled--mainly immigrants--on the other hand, it has created the exigency of highly qualified personnel. The children of the indigenous population are therefore favored because of their better scholastic training. A 2nd generation is now condemned to remain marginal even though they have been brought up to the ideals of social improvement and integration into higher standards of living. A highly dissatisfied category of young people is now an integral part of many labor-importing countries. Many industrial countries are flirting with zero population growth. Considering the demographic, economic, social, and political imbalances which exist and tend to grow, the world now has all the prerequisites for huge and prolonged migration flows originating from the South and moving almost exclusively toward the megacities and the industrial countries in the North. As long as technological as well as social inequalities persist, inner and international migration flows will continue. It is evident that the aim of many highly industrialized countries is the total ceasing of all

  1. Defining Scenarios: Linking Integrated Models, Regional Concerns, and Stakeholders

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hartmann, H. C.; Stewart, S.; Liu, Y.; Mahmoud, M.

    2007-05-01

    Scenarios are important tools for long-term planning, and there is great interest in using integrated models in scenario studies. However, scenario definition and assessment are creative, as well as scientific, efforts. Using facilitated creative processes, we have worked with stakeholders to define regionally significant scenarios that encompass a broad range of hydroclimatic, socioeconomic, and institutional dimensions. The regional scenarios subsequently inform the definition of local scenarios that work with context-specific integrated models that, individually, can address only a subset of overall regional complexity. Based on concerns of stakeholders in the semi-arid US Southwest, we prioritized three dimensions that are especially important, yet highly uncertain, for long-term planning: hydroclimatic conditions (increased variability, persistent drought), development patterns (urban consolidation, distributed rural development), and the nature of public institutions (stressed, proactive). Linking across real-world decision contexts and integrated modeling efforts poses challenges of creatively connecting the conceptual models held by both the research and stakeholder communities.

  2. Modeling and Composing Scenario-Based Requirements with Aspects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Araujo, Joao; Whittle, Jon; Ki, Dae-Kyoo

    2004-01-01

    There has been significant recent interest, within the Aspect-Oriented Software Development (AOSD) community, in representing crosscutting concerns at various stages of the software lifecycle. However, most of these efforts have concentrated on the design and implementation phases. We focus in this paper on representing aspects during use case modeling. In particular, we focus on scenario-based requirements and show how to compose aspectual and non-aspectual scenarios so that they can be simulated as a whole. Non-aspectual scenarios are modeled as UML sequence diagram. Aspectual scenarios are modeled as Interaction Pattern Specifications (IPS). In order to simulate them, the scenarios are transformed into a set of executable state machines using an existing state machine synthesis algorithm. Previous work composed aspectual and non-aspectual scenarios at the sequence diagram level. In this paper, the composition is done at the state machine level.

  3. The scenario-based generalization of radiation therapy margins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fredriksson, Albin; Bokrantz, Rasmus

    2016-03-01

    We give a scenario-based treatment plan optimization formulation that is equivalent to planning with geometric margins if the scenario doses are calculated using the static dose cloud approximation. If the scenario doses are instead calculated more accurately, then our formulation provides a novel robust planning method that overcomes many of the difficulties associated with previous scenario-based robust planning methods. In particular, our method protects only against uncertainties that can occur in practice, it gives a sharp dose fall-off outside high dose regions, and it avoids underdosage of the target in ‘easy’ scenarios. The method shares the benefits of the previous scenario-based robust planning methods over geometric margins for applications where the static dose cloud approximation is inaccurate, such as irradiation with few fields and irradiation with ion beams. These properties are demonstrated on a suite of phantom cases planned for treatment with scanned proton beams subject to systematic setup uncertainty.

  4. Energy sector water use implications of a 2 °C climate policy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fricko, Oliver; Parkinson, Simon C.; Johnson, Nils; Strubegger, Manfred; van Vliet, Michelle TH; Riahi, Keywan

    2016-03-01

    Quantifying water implications of energy transitions is important for assessing long-term freshwater sustainability since large volumes of water are currently used throughout the energy sector. In this paper, we assess direct global energy sector water use and thermal water pollution across a broad range of energy system transformation pathways to assess water impacts of a 2 °C climate policy. A global integrated assessment model is equipped with the capabilities to account for the water impacts of technologies located throughout the energy supply chain. The model framework is applied across a broad range of 2 °C scenarios to highlight long-term water impact uncertainties over the 21st century. We find that water implications vary significantly across scenarios, and that adaptation in power plant cooling technology can considerably reduce global freshwater withdrawals and thermal pollution. Global freshwater consumption increases across all of the investigated 2 °C scenarios as a result of rapidly expanding electricity demand in developing regions and the prevalence of freshwater-cooled thermal power generation. Reducing energy demand emerges as a robust strategy for water conservation, and enables increased technological flexibility on the supply side to fulfill ambitious climate objectives. The results underscore the importance of an integrated approach when developing water, energy, and climate policy, especially in regions where rapid growth in both energy and water demands is anticipated.

  5. "Actionable" Climate Scenarios for Natural Resource Managers in Southwestern Colorado

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rangwala, I.; Rondeau, R.; Wyborn, C.

    2014-12-01

    Locally relevant projections of climate change provide critical insights for natural resource managers seeking to adapt their management activities to climate change. To provide such information, we developed narrative scenarios of future climate change and its impacts on different ecosystems in southwestern Colorado. This multi-institution and trans-disciplinary project seeks to provide useful and useable knowledge to facilitate climate change adaptation in the context of uncertainty. The narratives are intended to provide detailed insights into the range of changes that natural resource managers may face in the future. These scenarios were developed in an iterative process through interactions between ecologists, social and climate scientists. In our scenario development process, climate uncertainty is acknowledged by having multiple scenarios, where each scenario is regarded as a storyline with equal probability as another scenario. Rather than a qualitative narration of the general direction of change and range in responses, we quantified changes in several decision relevant climate and ecological responses based on our best available understanding and provided a tight storyline for each scenario to facilitate (a) a more augmented use of scientific information in a decision-making process, (b) differential responses from stakeholders across the different scenarios, and (c) identification of strategies that could work across these multiple scenarios. This presentation will discuss the process of selecting the scenarios, quantifying climate and ecological responses, and the criteria for building the narrative for each scenario. We will also cover the process by which these scenarios get used, and how the user feedbacks are integrated in further developing the tools and processes.

  6. Intelligent scenario generation for simulation-based training

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Loftin, R. Bowen; Wang, Lui; Baffes, Paul

    1989-01-01

    A training scenario generator object database was developed to serve as a general-purpose mechanism for constructing the context needed to define a simulation scenario. It is found that the ability to automate the development of the input parameters required to produce a challenging simulation scenario targeted at a specific trainee can greatly enhance the efficiency of intelligent training systems. The approach described was used successfully in the payload-assist module deploy/intelligent computer-aided training system.

  7. Toward Interactive Scenario Analysis and Exploration

    SciTech Connect

    Gayle, Thomas R.; Summers, Kenneth Lee; Jungels, John; Oppel III, Fred J.

    2015-01-01

    As Modeling and Simulation (M&S) tools have matured, their applicability and importance have increased across many national security challenges. In particular, they provide a way to test how something may behave without the need to do real world testing. However, current and future changes across several factors including capabilities, policy, and funding are driving a need for rapid response or evaluation in ways that many M&S tools cannot address. Issues around large data, computational requirements, delivery mechanisms, and analyst involvement already exist and pose significant challenges. Furthermore, rising expectations, rising input complexity, and increasing depth of analysis will only increase the difficulty of these challenges. In this study we examine whether innovations in M&S software coupled with advances in ''cloud'' computing and ''big-data'' methodologies can overcome many of these challenges. In particular, we propose a simple, horizontally-scalable distributed computing environment that could provide the foundation (i.e. ''cloud'') for next-generation M&S-based applications based on the notion of ''parallel multi-simulation''. In our context, the goal of parallel multi- simulation is to consider as many simultaneous paths of execution as possible. Therefore, with sufficient resources, the complexity is dominated by the cost of single scenario runs as opposed to the number of runs required. We show the feasibility of this architecture through a stable prototype implementation coupled with the Umbra Simulation Framework [6]. Finally, we highlight the utility through multiple novel analysis tools and by showing the performance improvement compared to existing tools.

  8. Allowable carbon emissions for a medium mitigation scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tachiiri, K.; Hargreaves, J. C.; Annan, J. D.; Huntingford, C.; Kawamiya, M.

    2012-04-01

    The world climate research centres are currently running Earth System Models (ESMs) forced by Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. Based on these future pathways in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the emphasis has been mainly on estimating the associated levels of global warming that might be expected. There is also the important task of determining emission trajectories associated with the pathways, that may then be assessed by socio-economists for feasibility. Here we use an earth system model of intermediate complexity and a probabilistic framework to estimate the range of future temperature change and allowable emissions corresponding to a medium CO2 concentration pathway (RCP4.5). Uncertainty is initially estimated by allowing the equilibrium climate sensitivity, aerosol forcing and intrinsic physical and biogeochemical processes to vary within the widely accepted ranges. The results are then further constrained by extensive use of contemporary measurements. The resulting range of temperatures corresponding to RCP4.5 remains large. By year 2300, the predicted global temperature increase from pre-industrial has ± 2 standard deviation range of 1.4K, either side of a mean of 3.0K with 91% probability for increase over 2K. This result has major implications for future planning, as the difference between the upper and lower levels of warming may be expected to be enormous in terms of impacts, and quite possibly could differentiate between what is deemed "dangerous change" or otherwise. After constraint using contemporary data, the ensemble mean of the experiment allows similar emissions to the standard RCP4.5 emission scenario. The allowable emission for the peak emission period is projected as 11.5±2.0 PgC yr-1. Our ensemble demonstrates that, with high probability, drastic cuts in emissions will be required and that there is a probability of around 2% that there will need to be an extended period of time with global negative

  9. China's sustainable energy future: Scenarios of energy and carbonemissions (Summary)

    SciTech Connect

    Zhou, Dadi; Levine, Mark; Dai, Yande; Yu, Cong; Guo, Yuan; Sinton, Jonathan E.; Lewis, Joanna I.; Zhu, Yuezhong

    2004-03-10

    thatfuture economic growth may be supported by a relatively lower increase inenergy consumption. Over the past 20 years, energy intensity in China hasbeen reduced partly through technological and structural changes; currentannual emissions may be as much as 600 Mt-C lower than they would havebeen without intensity improvements. China must take into account itsunique circumstances in considering how to achieve a sustainabledevelopment path. This study considers the feasibility of such anachievement, while remaining open to exploring avenues of sustainabledevelopment that may be very different from existing models. Threescenarios were prepared to assist the Chinese Government to explore theissues, options and uncertainties that it confronts in shaping asustainable development path compatible with China's uniquecircumstances. The Promoting Sustainability scenario offers a systematicand complete interpretation of the social and economic goals proposed inthe Tenth Five-Year Plan. The possibility that environmentalsustainability would receive low priority is covered in the OrdinaryEffort scenario. Aggressive pursuit of sustainable development measuresalong with rapid economic expansion is featured in the Green Growthscenario. The scenarios differ in the degree to which a common set ofenergy supply and efficiency policies are implemented. In cons ultationwith technology and policy experts domestically and abroad, ERI developedstrategic scenarios and quantified them using an energy accounting model.The scenarios consider, in unprecedented detail, changes in energy demandstructure and technology, as well as energy supply, from 1998 to 2020.The scenarios in this study are an important step in estimating realistictargets for energy efficiency and energy supply development that are inline with a sustainable development strategy. The scenarios also helpanalyze and explore ways in which China might slow growth in greenhousegas emissions. The key results have important policy implications

  10. E-maintenance Scenarios Based on Augmented Reality Software Architecture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Benbelkacem, S.; Zenati-Henda, N.; Belhocine, M.

    2008-06-01

    This paper presents architecture of augmented reality for e-maintenance application. In our case, the aim is not to develop a vision system based on augmented reality concept, but to show the relationship between the different actors in the proposed architecture and to facilitate maintenance of the machine. This architecture allows implementing different scenarios which give to the technician possibilities to intervene on a breakdown device with a distant expert help. Each scenario is established according to machine parameters and technician competences. In our case, a hardware platform is designed to carry out e-maintenance scenarios. An example of e-maintenance scenario is then presented.

  11. Traffic scenario generation technique for piloted simulation studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Williams, David H.; Wells, Douglas C.

    1985-01-01

    Piloted simulation studies of cockpit traffic display concepts require the development of representative traffic scenarios. With the exception of specific aircraft interaction issues, most research questions can be addressed using traffic scenarios consisting of prerecorded aircraft movements merged together to form a desired traffic pattern. Prerecorded traffic scenarios have distinct research advantages, allowing control of traffic encounters with repeatability of scenarios between different test subjects. A technique is described for generation of prerecorded jet transport traffic scenarios suitable for use in piloted simulation studies. Individual flight profiles for the aircraft in the scenario are created interactively with a computer program designed specifically for this purpose. The profiles are then time-correlated and merged into a complete scenario. This technique was used to create traffic scenarios for the Denver, Colorado area with operations centered at Stapleton International Airport. Traffic scenarios for other areas may also be created using this technique, with appropriate modifications made to the navigation fix locations contained in the flight profile generation program.

  12. A future without health? Health dimension in global scenario studies.

    PubMed Central

    Martens, Pim; Huynen, Maud

    2003-01-01

    This paper reviews the health dimension and sociocultural, economic, and ecological determinants of health in existing global scenario studies. Not even half of the 31 scenarios reviewed gave a good description of future health developments and the different scenario studies did not handle health in a consistent way. Most of the global driving forces of health are addressed adequately in the selected scenarios, however, and it therefore would have been possible to describe the future developments in health as an outcome of these multiple driving forces. To provide examples on how future health can be incorporated in existing scenarios, we linked the sociocultural, economic, and environmental developments described in three sets of scenarios (special report on emission scenarios (SRES), global environmental outlook-3 (GEO3), and world water scenarios (WWS)) to three potential, but imaginary, health futures ("age of emerging infectious diseases", "age of medical technology", and "age of sustained health"). This paper provides useful insights into how to deal with future health in scenarios and shows that a comprehensive picture of future health evolves when all important driving forces and pressures are taken into account. PMID:14997242

  13. Culture, and a Metrics Methodology for Biological Countermeasure Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Simpson, Mary J.

    2007-03-15

    Outcome Metrics Methodology defines a way to evaluate outcome metrics associated with scenario analyses related to biological countermeasures. Previous work developed a schema to allow evaluation of common elements of impacts across a wide range of potential threats and scenarios. Classes of metrics were identified that could be used by decision makers to differentiate the common bases among disparate scenarios. Typical impact metrics used in risk calculations include the anticipated number of deaths, casualties, and the direct economic costs should a given event occur. There are less obvious metrics that are often as important and require more intensive initial work to be incorporated. This study defines a methodology for quantifying, evaluating, and ranking metrics other than direct health and economic impacts. As has been observed with the consequences of Hurricane Katrina, impacts to the culture of specific sectors of society are less obvious on an immediate basis but equally important over the ensuing and long term. Culture is used as the example class of metrics within which • requirements for a methodology are explored • likely methodologies are examined • underlying assumptions for the respective methodologies are discussed • the basis for recommending a specific methodology is demonstrated. Culture, as a class of metrics, is shown to consist of political, sociological, and psychological elements that are highly valued by decision makers. In addition, cultural practices, dimensions, and kinds of knowledge offer complementary sets of information that contribute to the context within which experts can provide input. The quantification and evaluation of sociopolitical, socio-economic, and sociotechnical impacts depend predominantly on subjective, expert judgment. Epidemiological data is limited, resulting in samples with statistical limits. Dose response assessments and curves depend on the quality of data and its relevance to human modes of exposure

  14. Projected Changes In The Water Cycle Of The Extratropical Western Andes Under Climate Change Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McPhee, J. P.; Rubio, E. A.; Ayala, A.; Meza, R.; Vicuna, S.; Garreaud, R.; Vargas, X.

    2009-12-01

    This work presents an analysis of the hydrological vulnerability of several economically important watersheds in Central Chile to changes in climate. The study area spans the ecoregion between 30° and 38° S along the western slope of the Andes Cordillera, a transition zone in which the maximum elevation of this mountain range decreases from more than 6000 to roughly 3000 masl. This region also harbors more than half of Chile’s population, in addition to almost its entire irrigated agricultural activity and hydropower production. Climate simulations from the HadCM3 global circulation model (A2 Scenario) project a significant decrease in annual precipitation toward the end of the XXI century, and warming amounts of more than 2° C in some areas. These projections are downscaled using a deterministic technique designed to preserve the distribution properties of observed precipitation and temperature in the region. The WEAP hydrologic model is driven with these climate projections and monthly streamflow estimates are computed for the period 2011-2100. Results indicate that the sensitivity of different watersheds to relative changes in climatic forcings is strongly dependent on the watershed elevation. Nevertheless, in all watersheds the “elasticity” of streamflow change to precipitation change is greater than one. This is, relative changes in precipitation result in greater relative changes in mean annual flow.

  15. Risk analysis for confined space entries: Critical analysis of four tools applied to three risk scenarios.

    PubMed

    Burlet-Vienney, Damien; Chinniah, Yuvin; Bahloul, Ali; Roberge, Brigitte

    2016-06-01

    Investigation reports of fatal confined space accidents nearly always point to a problem of identifying or underestimating risks. This paper compares 4 different risk analysis tools developed for confined spaces by applying them to 3 hazardous scenarios. The tools were namely 1. a checklist without risk estimation (Tool A), 2. a checklist with a risk scale (Tool B), 3. a risk calculation without a formal hazard identification stage (Tool C), and 4. a questionnaire followed by a risk matrix (Tool D). Each tool's structure and practical application were studied. Tools A and B gave crude results comparable to those of more analytic tools in less time. Their main limitations were lack of contextual information for the identified hazards and greater dependency on the user's expertise and ability to tackle hazards of different nature. Tools C and D utilized more systematic approaches than tools A and B by supporting risk reduction based on the description of the risk factors. Tool D is distinctive because of 1. its comprehensive structure with respect to the steps suggested in risk management, 2. its dynamic approach to hazard identification, and 3. its use of data resulting from the risk analysis. PMID:26864350

  16. Femicide in Italy: national scenario and presentation of four cases.

    PubMed

    Bonanni, Elisa; Maiese, Aniello; Gitto, Lorenzo; Falco, Pietro; Maiese, Adamo; Bolino, Giorgio

    2014-03-01

    Femicide is defined as the killing of a woman by a man because she is a woman. The incidence of femicide has increased over the past few years and accounted for 30.9% of all homicides in 2011 in Italy. Certain features are usually present including asphyxiation as the mechanism of death, an intimate partner as murderer, and a history of sentimental relationship between the victim and the offender. In this paper, we analyse the Italian experience of femicide comparing it with the international scenario. We present four cases of femicide showing peculiar mechanisms of death resulting from various methods of asphyxiation. In all the cases, there had been a relationship between the victim and the offender. We discuss the mechanism of asphyxiation used to kill the women, emphasizing the necessity of a careful evaluation of all data available to reach the correct conclusion in atypical cases of femicide. PMID:24619844

  17. Nuclear power for the future: Implications of some crisis scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Turner, K.H.

    1996-12-31

    As energy issues have dropped from public awareness, electricity demand growth has remained low, deregulation has destabilized the utility decision process, and least-cost regulation has pointed utilities to gas-fired plants for those additions that are coming on-line, the nuclear power industry has begun to ask the question: What will cause nuclear energy to again compete as an option in new, domestic generating capacity additions? Since virtually all of today`s corporate and societal decisions are driven by short-term factors, the preceding question can be translated into: What crisis might occur that would project nuclear as the solution to an immediately perceived problem? Thus, an examination of scenarios that would project nuclear power into the country`s immediate consciousness is in order, along with an analysis of the implications for and challenges to the nuclear industry resulting therefrom. This paper undertakes such an analysis.

  18. Gene flow scenarios with transgenic maize in Mexico.

    PubMed

    Serratos-Hernández, José-Antonio; Islas-Gutiérrez, Fabián; Buendía-Rodríguez, Enrique; Berthaud, Julien

    2004-01-01

    Maize diversity is widespread in Mexico and it has been stewarded by campesinos in small communities until the present. With the arrival of transgenic maize, the objective of this study is to analyze possible scenarios that could result if genetically modified maize were not regulated and openly available in Mexico. By applying a simple logistic model based on the conditions of maize production in Mexico, the dispersion of transgenic maize in different situations within fields of farmers is described. In traditional open systems of freely exchanged seed within communities it is concluded that the most likely outcome of GM maize release is the incorporation of transgenes in the genome of Mexican germplasm and possibly in that of teosinte. PMID:15901097

  19. Thermal effects and sudden decay approximation in the curvaton scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Kitajima, Naoya; Takesako, Tomohiro; Yokoyama, Shuichiro; Langlois, David; Takahashi, Tomo E-mail: langlois@apc.univ-paris7.fr E-mail: takesako@icrr.u-tokyo.ac.jp

    2014-10-01

    We study the impact of a temperature-dependent curvaton decay rate on the primordial curvature perturbation generated in the curvaton scenario. Using the familiar sudden decay approximation, we obtain an analytical expression for the curvature perturbation after the decay of the curvaton. We then investigate numerically the evolution of the background and of the perturbations during the decay. We first show that the instantaneous transfer coefficient, related to the curvaton energy fraction at the decay, can be extended into a more general parameter, which depends on the net transfer of the curvaton energy into radiation energy or, equivalently, on the total entropy ratio after the complete curvaton decay. We then compute the curvature perturbation and compare this result with the sudden decay approximation prediction.

  20. Modelling of pulsed and steady-state DEMO scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giruzzi, G.; Artaud, J. F.; Baruzzo, M.; Bolzonella, T.; Fable, E.; Garzotti, L.; Ivanova-Stanik, I.; Kemp, R.; King, D. B.; Schneider, M.; Stankiewicz, R.; Stępniewski, W.; Vincenzi, P.; Ward, D.; Zagórski, R.

    2015-07-01

    Scenario modelling for the demonstration fusion reactor (DEMO) has been carried out using a variety of simulation codes. Two DEMO concepts have been analysed: a pulsed tokamak, characterized by rather conventional physics and technology assumptions (DEMO1) and a steady-state tokamak, with moderately advanced physics and technology assumptions (DEMO2). Sensitivity to impurity concentrations, radiation, and heat transport models has been investigated. For DEMO2, the impact of current driven non-inductively by neutral beams has been studied by full Monte Carlo simulations of the fast ion distribution. The results obtained are a part of a more extensive research and development (R&D) effort carried out in the EU in order to develop a viable option for a DEMO reactor, to be adopted after ITER for fusion energy research.

  1. Expansion history with decaying vacuum: a complete cosmological scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lima, J. A. S.; Basilakos, S.; Solà, J.

    2013-05-01

    We propose a novel cosmological scenario with the space-time emerging from a pure initial de Sitter stage and subsequently evolving into the radiation, matter and dark energy dominated epochs, thereby avoiding the initial singularity and providing a complete description of the expansion history and a natural solution to the horizon problem. The model is based on a dynamical vacuum energy density which evolves as a power series of the Hubble rate. The transit from the inflation into the standard radiation epoch is universal, giving a clue for a successful description of the graceful exit. Since the resulting late time cosmic history is very close to the concordance Λcold dark matter model, the new unified framework embodies a more complete past cosmic evolution than the standard cosmology.

  2. Scenarios for Evolving Seismic Crises: Possible Communication Strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steacy, S.

    2015-12-01

    Recent advances in operational earthquake forecasting mean that we are very close to being able to confidently compute changes in earthquake probability as seismic crises develop. For instance, we now have statistical models such as ETAS and STEP which demonstrate considerable skill in forecasting earthquake rates and recent advances in Coulomb based models are also showing much promise. Communicating changes in earthquake probability is likely be very difficult, however, as the absolute probability of a damaging event is likely to remain quite small despite a significant increase in the relative value. Here, we use a hybrid Coulomb/statistical model to compute probability changes for a series of earthquake scenarios in New Zealand. We discuss the strengths and limitations of the forecasts and suggest a number of possible mechanisms that might be used to communicate results in an actual developing seismic crisis.

  3. Accelerator Disaster Scenarios, the Unabomber, and Scientific Risks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kapusta, Joseph I.

    2008-06-01

    The possibility that experiments at high-energy accelerators could create new forms of matter that would ultimately destroy the Earth has been considered several times in the past quarter century. One consequence of the earliest of these disaster scenarios was that the authors of a 1993 article in "Physics Today" who reviewed the experiments that had been carried out at the Bevalac at Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory were placed on the FBI's Unabomber watch list. Later, concerns that experiments at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider at Brookhaven National Laboratory might create mini black holes or nuggets of stable strange quark matter resulted in a flurry of articles in the popular press. I discuss this history, as well as Richard A. Posner's provocative analysis and recommendations on how to deal with such scientific risks. I conclude that better communication between scientists and nonscientists would serve to assuage unreasonable fears and focus attention on truly serious potential threats to humankind.

  4. Inflation in a two 3-form fields scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Kumar, K. Sravan; Marto, J.; Moniz, P. Vargas; Nunes, Nelson J. E-mail: jmarto@ubi.pt E-mail: pmoniz@ubi.pt

    2014-06-01

    A setting constituted by N 3-form fields, without any direct interaction between them, minimally coupled to gravity, is introduced in this paper as a framework to study the early evolution of the universe. We focus particularly on the two 3-forms case. An inflationary scenario is found, emerging from the coupling to gravity. More concretely, the fields coupled in this manner exhibit a complex interaction, mediated by the time derivative of the Hubble parameter. Our investigation is supported by means of a suitable choice of potentials, employing numerical methods and analytical approximations. In more detail, the oscillations on the small field limit become correlated, and one field is intertwined with the other. In this type of solution, a varying sound speed is present, together with the generation of isocurvature perturbations. The mentioned features allow to consider an interesting model, to test against observation. It is subsequently shown how our results are consistent with current CMB data (viz.Planck and BICEP2)

  5. Future scenarios of impacts to ecosystem services on California rangelands

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Byrd, Kristin; Alvarez, Pelayo; Flint, Lorraine; Flint, Alan

    2014-01-01

    The 18 million acres of rangelands in the Central Valley of California provide multiple benefits or “ecosystem services” to people—including wildlife habitat, water supply, open space, recreation, and cultural resources. Most of this land is privately owned and managed for livestock production. These rangelands are vulnerable to land-use conversion and climate change. To help resource managers assess the impacts of land-use change and climate change, U.S. Geological Survey scientists and their cooperators developed scenarios to quantify and map changes to three main rangeland ecosystem services—wildlife habitat, water supply, and carbon sequestration. Project results will help prioritize strategies to conserve these rangelands and the ecosystem services that they provide.

  6. Hantavirus reservoir Oligoryzomys longicaudatus spatial distribution sensitivity to climate change scenarios in Argentine Patagonia

    PubMed Central

    Carbajo, Aníbal E; Vera, Carolina; González, Paula LM

    2009-01-01

    Background Oligoryzomys longicaudatus (colilargo) is the rodent responsible for hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) in Argentine Patagonia. In past decades (1967–1998), trends of precipitation reduction and surface air temperature increase have been observed in western Patagonia. We explore how the potential distribution of the hantavirus reservoir would change under different climate change scenarios based on the observed trends. Methods Four scenarios of potential climate change were constructed using temperature and precipitation changes observed in Argentine Patagonia between 1967 and 1998: Scenario 1 assumed no change in precipitation but a temperature trend as observed; scenario 2 assumed no changes in temperature but a precipitation trend as observed; Scenario 3 included changes in both temperature and precipitation trends as observed; Scenario 4 assumed changes in both temperature and precipitation trends as observed but doubled. We used a validated spatial distribution model of O. longicaudatus as a function of temperature and precipitation. From the model probability of the rodent presence was calculated for each scenario. Results If changes in precipitation follow previous trends, the probability of the colilargo presence would fall in the HPS transmission zone of northern Patagonia. If temperature and precipitation trends remain at current levels for 60 years or double in the future 30 years, the probability of the rodent presence and the associated total area of potential distribution would diminish throughout Patagonia; the areas of potential distribution for colilargos would shift eastwards. These results suggest that future changes in Patagonia climate may lower transmission risk through a reduction in the potential distribution of the rodent reservoir. Conclusion According to our model the rates of temperature and precipitation changes observed between 1967 and 1998 may produce significant changes in the rodent distribution in an equivalent

  7. Simulation of water-use conservation scenarios for the Mississippi Delta using an existing regional groundwater flow model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Barlow, Jeannie R.B.; Clark, Brian R.

    2011-01-01

    The Mississippi River alluvial plain in northwestern Mississippi (referred to as the Delta), once a floodplain to the Mississippi River covered with hardwoods and marshland, is now a highly productive agricultural region of large economic importance to Mississippi. Water for irrigation is supplied primarily by the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer, and although the alluvial aquifer has a large reserve, there is evidence that the current rate of water use from the alluvial aquifer is not sustainable. Using an existing regional groundwater flow model, conservation scenarios were developed for the alluvial aquifer underlying the Delta region in northwestern Mississippi to assess where the implementation of water-use conservation efforts would have the greatest effect on future water availability-either uniformly throughout the Delta, or focused on a cone of depression in the alluvial aquifer underlying the central part of the Delta. Five scenarios were simulated with the Mississippi Embayment Regional Aquifer Study groundwater flow model: (1) a base scenario in which water use remained constant at 2007 rates throughout the entire simulation; (2) a 5-percent 'Delta-wide' conservation scenario in which water use across the Delta was decreased by 5 percent; (3) a 5-percent 'cone-equivalent' conservation scenario in which water use within the area of the cone of depression was decreased by 11 percent (a volume equivalent to the 5-percent Delta-wide conservation scenario); (4) a 25-percent Delta-wide conservation scenario in which water use across the Delta was decreased by 25 percent; and (5) a 25-percent cone-equivalent conservation scenario in which water use within the area of the cone of depression was decreased by 55 percent (a volume equivalent to the 25-percent Delta-wide conservation scenario). The Delta-wide scenarios result in greater average water-level improvements (relative to the base scenario) for the entire Delta area than the cone

  8. Spatially explicit land-use and land-cover scenarios for the Great Plains of the United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sohl, Terry L.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sayler, Kristi L.; Bouchard, Michelle A.; Reker, Ryan R.; Bennett, Stacie L.; Sleeter, Rachel R.; Kanengieter, Ronald L.; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

    2012-01-01

    The Great Plains of the United States has undergone extensive land-use and land-cover change in the past 150 years, with much of the once vast native grasslands and wetlands converted to agricultural crops, and much of the unbroken prairie now heavily grazed. Future land-use change in the region could have dramatic impacts on ecological resources and processes. A scenario-based modeling framework is needed to support the analysis of potential land-use change in an uncertain future, and to mitigate potentially negative future impacts on ecosystem processes. We developed a scenario-based modeling framework to analyze potential future land-use change in the Great Plains. A unique scenario construction process, using an integrated modeling framework, historical data, workshops, and expert knowledge, was used to develop quantitative demand for future land-use change for four IPCC scenarios at the ecoregion level. The FORE-SCE model ingested the scenario information and produced spatially explicit land-use maps for the region at relatively fine spatial and thematic resolutions. Spatial modeling of the four scenarios provided spatial patterns of land-use change consistent with underlying assumptions and processes associated with each scenario. Economically oriented scenarios were characterized by significant loss of natural land covers and expansion of agricultural and urban land uses. Environmentally oriented scenarios experienced modest declines in natural land covers to slight increases. Model results were assessed for quantity and allocation disagreement between each scenario pair. In conjunction with the U.S. Geological Survey's Biological Carbon Sequestration project, the scenario-based modeling framework used for the Great Plains is now being applied to the entire United States.

  9. Epidemics Scenarios in the “Romantic Network”

    PubMed Central

    Carvalho, Alexsandro M.; Gonçalves, Sebastián

    2012-01-01

    The networks of sexual contacts together with temporal interactions play key roles in the spread of sexually transmitted infections. Unfortunately, data for this kind of network is scarce. One of the few exceptions, the “Romantic network”, is a complete structure of a real sexual network in a high school. Based on many network measurements the authors of the work have concluded that it does not correspond to any other model network. Regarding the temporal structure, several studies indicate that relationship timing can have an effect on the diffusion throughout networks, as relationship order determines transmission routes. The aim is to check if the particular structure, static and dynamic, of the Romantic network is determinant for the propagation of an STI. We performed simulations in two scenarios: the static network where all contacts are available and the dynamic case where contacts evolve over time. In the static case, we compared the epidemic results in the Romantic network with some paradigmatic topologies. In the dynamic scenario, we considered the dynamics of formation of pairs in the Romantic network and we studied the propagation of the diseases. Our results suggest that although this real network cannot be labeled as a Watts-Strogatz network, it is, in regard to the propagation of an STI, very similar to a high disorder network. Additionally, we found that: the effect that any individual contacting an externally infected subject is to make the network closer to a fully connected one, the higher the contact degree of patient zero the faster the spread of the outbreaks, and the epidemic impact is proportional to the numbers of contacts per unit time. Finally, our simulations confirm that relationship timing severely reduced the final outbreak size, and also, show a clear correlation between the average degree and the outbreak size over time. PMID:23209561

  10. Testing inflation and curvaton scenarios with CMB distortions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clesse, Sébastien; Garbrecht, Björn; Zhu, Yi

    2014-10-01

    Prior to recombination, Silk damping causes the dissipation of energy from acoustic waves into the monopole of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB), resulting in spectral distortions. These can be used to probe the primordial scalar power spectrum on smaller scales than it is possible with CMB anisotropies. An enhancement of power on these scales is nevertheless required for the resulting distortions to be detectable by future experiments like PIXIE. In this paper, we examine all 49 single-field inflation models listed by Martin et al. in the Encyclopaedia Inflationaris [1] and find that only one of these may lead to a detectable level of distortions in a tuned region of its parameter space, namely the original hybrid model. Three effective multi-field scenarios are also studied: with softly and suddenly turning trajectories, and with a mild waterfall trajectory. Softly turning trajectories do not induce distortions at any detectable level, whereas a sudden turn in the field space or a mild waterfall trajectory predicts a peak (plus damped oscillations in the sudden turn case) in the scalar power spectrum, which can lead to an observable amount of CMB distortions. Finally, another scenario leading to potentially detectable distortions involves a curvaton whose blue spectrum is subdominant on CMB angular scales and overtakes the inflaton spectrum on smaller scales. In this case however, we show that the bounds from ultra compact minihaloes are not satisfied. Expectations for an ultimate PRISM-class experiment characterized by an improvement in sensitivity by a factor of ten are discussed for some models.

  11. Deployment Effects of Marine Renewable Energy Technologies: Wave Energy Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Mirko Previsic

    2010-06-17

    other project teams funded by DoE which are focused on regulatory issues (Pacific Energy Ventures) and navigational issues (PCCI). The results of this study are structured into three reports: (1) Wave power scenario description (2) Tidal power scenario description (3) Framework for Identifying Key Environmental Concerns This is the first report in the sequence and describes the results of conceptual feasibility studies of wave power plants deployed in Humboldt County, California and Oahu, Hawaii. These two sites contain many of the same competing stakeholder interactions identified at other wave power sites in the U.S. and serve as representative case studies. Wave power remains at an early stage of development. As such, a wide range of different technologies are being pursued by different manufacturers. In order to properly characterize potential effects, it is useful to characterize the range of technologies that could be deployed at the site of interest. An industry survey informed the process of selecting representative wave power devices. The selection criteria requires that devices are at an advanced stage of development to reduce technical uncertainties, and that enough data are available from the manufacturers to inform the conceptual design process of this study. Further, an attempt is made to cover the range of different technologies under development to capture variations in potential environmental effects. Table 1 summarizes the selected wave power technologies. A number of other developers are also at an advanced stage of development, but are not directly mentioned here. Many environmental effects will largely scale with the size of the wave power plant. In many cases, the effects of a single device may not be measurable, while larger scale device arrays may have cumulative impacts that differ significantly from smaller scale deployments. In order to characterize these effects, scenarios are established at three deployment scales which nominally represent

  12. Run scenarios for the linear collider

    SciTech Connect

    M. Battaglia et al.

    2002-12-23

    We have examined how a Linear Collider program of 1000 fb{sup -1} could be constructed in the case that a very rich program of new physics is accessible at {radical}s {le} 500 GeV. We have examined possible run plans that would allow the measurement of the parameters of a 120 GeV Higgs boson, the top quark, and could give information on the sparticle masses in SUSY scenarios in which many states are accessible. We find that the construction of the run plan (the specific energies for collider operation, the mix of initial state electron polarization states, and the use of special e{sup -}e{sup -} runs) will depend quite sensitively on the specifics of the supersymmetry model, as the decay channels open to particular sparticles vary drastically and discontinuously as the underlying SUSY model parameters are varied. We have explored this dependence somewhat by considering two rather closely related SUSY model points. We have called for operation at a high energy to study kinematic end points, followed by runs in the vicinity of several two body production thresholds once their location is determined by the end point studies. For our benchmarks, the end point runs are capable of disentangling most sparticle states through the use of specific final states and beam polarizations. The estimated sparticle mass precisions, combined from end point and scan data, are given in Table VIII and the corresponding estimates for the mSUGRA parameters are in Table IX. The precision for the Higgs boson mass, width, cross-sections, branching ratios and couplings are given in Table X. The errors on the top quark mass and width are expected to be dominated by the systematic limits imposed by QCD non-perturbative effects. The run plan devotes at least two thirds of the accumulated luminosity near the maximum LC energy, so that the program would be sensitive to unexpected new phenomena at high mass scales. We conclude that with a 1 ab{sup -1} program, expected to take the first 6-7 years

  13. Comprehensive update on cancer scenario of Bangladesh

    PubMed Central

    Hussain, Syed Md Akram

    2013-01-01

    programs have taken place for early detection of breast, cervical and oral cancer by Bangladesh Government and NGOs such as ICDDR’B, BRAC, Ahsania Mission Cancer Hospital, BSMMU, Bangladesh Cancer Society, Ashic Foundation, Amader Gram, AK Khan Healthcare Trust, CANSUP, Oncology club etc. Piloting of cervical cancer vaccination has recently been completed. Improving the cancer scenario overnight is not an easy task but policy makers may become interested and push this agenda forward, if the huge health impact and economic loss caused by cancer become evident to them. Besides, Bangladesh has accepted reduction of cancer morbidity and mortality targets set by United Nations and World Health Organization as a part of global non-communicable disease prevention agreement. PMID:24455659

  14. Analysis of five simulated straw harvest scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Sokhansanj, Shahabaddine; Turhollow Jr, Anthony F; Stephen, Jamie; Stumborg, Mark; Fenton, James; Mani, Sudhagar

    2008-01-01

    Almost 36 million tonnes (t) of cereal grains are harvested annually on more than 16 million hectares (ha) in Canada. The net straw production varies year by year depending upon weather patterns, crop fertility, soil conservation measures, harvest method, and plant variety. The net yield of straw, after discounting for soil conservation, averages approximately 2.5 dry (d)t ha-1. Efficient equipment is needed to collect and package the material as a feedstock for industrial applications. This paper investigates the costs, energy input, and emissions from power equipment used for harvesting straw. Five scenarios were investigated: (1) large square bales, (2) round bales, (3) large compacted stacks (loafs), (4) dried chops, and (5) wet chops. The baled or loafed biomass is stacked next to the farm. Dry chop is collected in a large pile and wet chop is ensiled. The baling and stacking cost was $21.47 dt-1 (dry tonne), with little difference between round and large square baling. Loafing was the cheapest option at $17.08 dt-1. Dry chop and piling was $23.90 dt-1 and wet chop followed by ensiling was $59.75 dt-1. A significant portion of the wet chop cost was in ensiling. Energy input and emissions were proportional to the costs for each system, except for loafing, which required more energy input than the baling systems. As a fraction of the energy content of biomass (roughly 16 GJ dt-1), the energy input ranged from 1.2% for baling to 3.2% for ensiling. Emissions from the power equipment ranged from 20.3 kg CO2e dt-1 to more than 40 kg CO2e dt-1. A sensitivity analysis on the effect of yield on collection costs showed that a 33% increase in yield reduced the cost by 20%. Similarly a sensitivity analysis on weather conditions showed that a 10oC cooler climate extended the harvest period by 5-10 days whereas a 10oC warmer climate shortened the harvest period by 2-3 days.

  15. Developing spatially explicit footprints of plausible land-use scenarios in the Santa Cruz Watershed, Arizona and Sonora

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Norman, Laura M.; Feller, Mark; Villarreal, Miguel L.

    2012-01-01

    The SLEUTH urban growth model is applied to a binational dryland watershed to envision and evaluate plausible future scenarios of land use change into the year 2050. Our objective was to create a suite of geospatial footprints portraying potential land use change that can be used to aid binational decision-makers in assessing the impacts relative to sustainability of natural resources and potential socio-ecological consequences of proposed land-use management. Three alternatives are designed to simulate different conditions: (i) a Current Trends Scenario of unmanaged exponential growth, (ii) a Conservation Scenario with managed growth to protect the environment, and (iii) a Megalopolis Scenario in which growth is accentuated around a defined international trade corridor. The model was calibrated with historical data extracted from a time series of satellite images. Model materials, methodology, and results are presented. Our Current Trends Scenario predicts the footprint of urban growth to approximately triple from 2009 to 2050, which is corroborated by local population estimates. The Conservation Scenario results in protecting 46% more of the Evergreen class (more than 150,000 acres) than the Current Trends Scenario and approximately 95,000 acres of Barren Land, Crops, Deciduous Forest (Mesquite Bosque), Grassland/Herbaceous, Urban/Recreational Grasses, and Wetlands classes combined. The Megalopolis Scenario results also depict the preservation of some of these land-use classes compared to the Current Trends Scenario, most notably in the environmentally important headwaters region. Connectivity and areal extent of land cover types that provide wildlife habitat were preserved under the alternative scenarios when compared to Current Trends.

  16. The Effects of Scenario Planning on Participant Decision-Making Style

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chermack, Thomas J.; Nimon, Kim

    2008-01-01

    This research examines changes in decision-making styles as a result of participation in scenario planning. A quasi-experimental pretest-posttest design and several nonparametric tests were used to analyze data gathered from research participants in a technology firm in the Northeastern United States. Results show that participants tend to…

  17. Development of a Tsunami Scenario Database for Marmara Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ozer Sozdinler, Ceren; Necmioglu, Ocal; Meral Ozel, Nurcan

    2016-04-01

    Due to the very short travel times in Marmara Sea, a Tsunami Early Warning System (TEWS) has to be strongly coupled with the earthquake early warning system and should be supported with a pre-computed tsunami scenario database to be queried in near real-time based on the initial earthquake parameters. To address this problem, 30 different composite earthquake scenarios with maximum credible Mw values based on 32 fault segments have been identified to produce a detailed scenario database for all possible earthquakes in the Marmara Sea with a tsunamigenic potential. The bathy/topo data of Marmara Sea was prepared using GEBCO and ASTER data, bathymetric measurements along Bosphorus, Istanbul and Dardanelle, Canakkale and the coastline digitized from satellite images. The coarser domain in 90m-grid size was divided into 11 sub-regions having 30m-grid size in order to increase the data resolution and precision of the calculation results. The analyses were performed in nested domains with numerical model NAMIDANCE using non-linear shallow water equations. In order to cover all the residential areas, industrial facilities and touristic locations, more than 1000 numerical gauge points were selected along the coasts of Marmara Sea, which are located at water depth of 5 to 10m in finer domain. The distributions of tsunami hydrodynamic parameters were investigated together with the change of water surface elevations, current velocities, momentum fluxes and other important parameters at the gauge points. This work is funded by the project MARsite - New Directions in Seismic Hazard assessment through Focused Earth Observation in the Marmara Supersite (FP7-ENV.2012 6.4-2, Grant 308417 - see NH2.3/GMPV7.4/SM7.7) and supported by SATREPS-MarDim Project (Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation in the Marmara Region and Disaster Education in Turkey) and JICA (Japan International Cooperation Agency). The authors would like to acknowledge Ms. Basak Firat for her assistance in

  18. The use of engineering design scenarios to assess student knowledge of global, societal, economic, and environmental contexts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McKenna, Ann F.; Hynes, Morgan M.; Johnson, Amy M.; Carberry, Adam R.

    2016-07-01

    Product archaeology as an educational approach asks engineering students to consider and explore the broader societal and global impacts of a product's manufacturing, distribution, use, and disposal on people, economics, and the environment. This study examined the impact of product archaeology in a project-based engineering design course on student attitudes and perceptions about engineering and abilities to extend and refine knowledge about broader contexts. Two design scenarios were created: one related to dental hygiene and one related to vaccination delivery. Design scenarios were used to (1) assess knowledge of broader contexts, and (2) test variability of student responses across different contextual situations. Results from pre- to post-surveying revealed improved student perceptions of knowledge of broader contexts. Significant differences were observed between the two design scenarios. The findings support the assumption that different design scenarios elicit consideration of different contexts and design scenarios can be constructed to target specific contextual considerations.

  19. The Impact of New Estimates of Mixing Ratio and Flux-based Halogen Scenarios on Ozone Evolution

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Oman, Luke D.; Douglass, Anne R.; Liang, Qing; Strahan, Susan E.

    2014-01-01

    The evolution of ozone in the 21st century has been shown to be mainly impacted by the halogen emissions scenario and predicted changes in the circulation of the stratosphere. New estimates of mixing ratio and flux-based emission scenarios have been produced from the SPARC Lifetime Assessment 2013. Simulations using the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM) are conducted using this new A1 2014 halogen scenario and compared to ones using the A1 2010 scenario. This updated version of GEOSCCM includes a realistic representation of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and improvements related to the break up of the Antarctic polar vortex. We will present results of the ozone evolution over the recent past and 21st century to the A1 2010, A1 2014 mixing ratio, and an A1 2014 flux-based halogen scenario. Implications of the uncertainties in these estimates as well as those from possible circulation changes will be discussed.

  20. 10 CFR 63.322 - Human intrusion scenario.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Human intrusion scenario. 63.322 Section 63.322 Energy... REPOSITORY AT YUCCA MOUNTAIN, NEVADA Postclosure Public Health and Environmental Standards Human Intrusion Standard § 63.322 Human intrusion scenario. For the purposes of the analysis of human intrusion, DOE...

  1. Visualization of Learning Scenarios with UML4LD

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Laforcade, Pierre

    2007-01-01

    Present Educational Modelling Languages are used to formally specify abstract learning scenarios in a machine-interpretable format. Current tooling does not provide teachers/designers with some graphical facilities to help them in reusing existent scenarios. They need human-readable representations. This paper discusses the UML4LD experimental…

  2. Usability standards meet scenario-based design: challenges and opportunities.

    PubMed

    Vincent, Christopher J; Blandford, Ann

    2015-02-01

    The focus of this paper is on the challenges and opportunities presented by developing scenarios of use for interactive medical devices. Scenarios are integral to the international standard for usability engineering of medical devices (IEC 62366:2007), and are also applied to the development of health software (draft standard IEC 82304-1). The 62366 standard lays out a process for mitigating risk during normal use (i.e. use as per the instructions, or accepted medical practice). However, this begs the question of whether "real use" (that which occurs in practice) matches "normal use". In this paper, we present an overview of the product lifecycle and how it impacts on the type of scenario that can be practically applied. We report on the development and testing of a set of scenarios intended to inform the design of infusion pumps based on "real use". The scenarios were validated by researchers and practitioners experienced in clinical practice, and their utility was assessed by developers and practitioners representing different stages of the product lifecycle. These evaluations highlighted previously unreported challenges and opportunities for the use of scenarios in this context. Challenges include: integrating scenario-based design with usability engineering practice; covering the breadth of uses of infusion devices; and managing contradictory evidence. Opportunities included scenario use beyond design to guide marketing, to inform purchasing and as resources for training staff. This study exemplifies one empirically grounded approach to communicating and negotiating the realities of practice. PMID:25460202

  3. Scenarios To Illustrate Effective Participation in District and College Governance.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Community Coll. League of California, Sacramento.

    This is a joint publication of the Community College League of California and the Academic Senate for California Community Colleges. It presents 27 scenarios that illustrate effective participation in district and college governance. The scenarios represent situations that raise questions regarding the roles of key figures in governance, including…

  4. ImmunoScenarios: A Game for the Immune System.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Taylor, Mark F.; Jackson, Sally W.

    1996-01-01

    Describes a board game, ImmunoScenarios, which was developed to reinforce the ideas about the immune system discussed in lecture classes. Emphasizes important characteristics of the body's specific defense system including specificity, cooperation among various cells, and memory. Includes directions for playing, student handouts, and scenarios.…

  5. New Methods for Crafting Locally Decision-Relevant Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lempert, R. J.

    2015-12-01

    Scenarios can play an important role in helping decision makers to imagine future worlds, both good and bad, different than the one with which we are familiar and to take concrete steps now to address the risks generated by climate change. At their best, scenarios can effectively represent deep uncertainty; integrate over multiple domains; and enable parties with different expectation and values to expand the range of futures they consider, to see the world from different points of view, and to grapple seriously with the potential implications of surprising or inconvenient futures. These attributes of scenario processes can prove crucial in helping craft effective responses to climate change. But traditional scenario methods can also fail to overcome difficulties related to choosing, communicating, and using scenarios to identify, evaluate, and reach consensus on appropriate policies. Such challenges can limit scenario's impact in broad public discourse. This talk will demonstrate how new decision support approaches can employ new quantitative tools that allow scenarios to emerge from a process of deliberation with analysis among stakeholders, rather than serve as inputs to it, thereby increasing the impacts of scenarios on decision making. This talk will demonstrate these methods in the design of a decision support tool to help residents of low lying coastal cities grapple with the long-term risks of sea level rise. In particular, this talk will show how information from the IPCC SSP's can be combined with local information to provide a rich set of locally decision-relevant information.

  6. Child-Specific Exposure Scenarios Examples (Final Report)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Child-Specific Exposure Scenarios Examples (Final Report) is intended to be a companion document to the Exposure Factors Handbook (U.S. EPA 2011). The example scenarios were compiled from questions and inquiries received from users of the Exposure Factors Handbo...

  7. Student Experience of a Scenario-Centred Curriculum

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bell, Sarah; Galilea, Patricia; Tolouei, Reza

    2010-01-01

    In 2006 UCL implemented new scenario-centred degree programmes in Civil and Environmental Engineering. The new curriculum can be characterised as a hybrid of problem-based, project-based and traditional approaches to learning. Four times a year students work in teams for one week on a scenario which aims to integrate learning from lecture and…

  8. EPA’s Exposure Factors Interactive Resource for Scenarios Tool

    EPA Science Inventory

    The purpose of the Exposure Factors Interactive Resource for Scenarios Tool (ExpoFIRST) is to allow users to draw on data found in the 2011 EFH to develop user-defined scenarios based on route of exposure, medium, receptor(s), timeframe, and dose metric for a contaminant of conce...

  9. Developing Scenarios: Linking Environmental Scanning and Strategic Planning.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Whiteley, Meredith A.; And Others

    1990-01-01

    The multiple scenario analysis technique for organizational planning used by multinational corporations is adaptable for colleges and universities. Arizona State University launched a futures-based planning project using the Delphi technique and cross-impact analysis to produce three alternative scenarios (stable, turbulent, and chaotic) to expand…

  10. An Example Implementation of Schank's Goal-Based Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hsu, Chung-Yuan; Moore, David Richard

    2010-01-01

    The Goal-based Scenario method is a design model for applying simulations to instruction. This portfolio item describes an implementation of Goal-based Scenarios for the teaching of statistics. The application demonstrates how simulations can be contextualized and how they can allow learners to engage in legitimate inquiry in the pursuit of their…

  11. 10 CFR 63.322 - Human intrusion scenario.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 2 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Human intrusion scenario. 63.322 Section 63.322 Energy... REPOSITORY AT YUCCA MOUNTAIN, NEVADA Postclosure Public Health and Environmental Standards Human Intrusion Standard § 63.322 Human intrusion scenario. For the purposes of the analysis of human intrusion, DOE...