Science.gov

Sample records for a2 scenario results

  1. Asteroid families - Recent results and present scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zappala, V.; Cellino, A.

    1992-03-01

    An overview of recent studies on asteroid families based on high-accuracy proper elements as well as on objective statistical methods of cluster analysis is presented. A number of asteroid families have been recognized on the basis of different methods of cluster analysis, using asteroid proper elements data sets computed via different theories. Spectroscopic observations confirm these results, indicating surface compositions of the family members in agreement with a geochemically plausible parent body. The size distribution and the taxonomic types of some well-established families indicate particular features of the family sample when compared with the field objects.

  2. Pelagic resources landings in central-southern Chile under the A2 climate change scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yáñez, Eleuterio; Plaza, Francisco; Silva, Claudio; Sánchez, Felipe; Barbieri, María Ángela; Aranis, Antonio

    2016-09-01

    Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were used to predict landings of anchovy (Engraulis ringens), common sardine (Strangomera bentincki), and jack mackerel (Trachurus murphyi) in central-southern Chile. Twelve environmental variables were considered along with fishing effort (fe) and landing statistics from 1973 to 2012. During external validation, the best models with all of the selected variables gave r 2 values of 90 % for anchovy, 96 % for common sardine, and 88 % for jack mackerel. The models were simplified by considering only fe and sea surface temperature from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data (SST-NOAA), and very similar fits were achieved (87, 92, and 88 %, respectively). Future SSTs were obtained from the A2 climate change scenario and regionalized using statistical downscaling techniques. The downscaled SSTs were used as input for landings predictions using ANN simplified models. In addition, three scenarios of future fishing efforts (2010-2012 average, average + 50 %, and average - 50 %) were used as the input data for landing simulations. The results of the predictions show a decrease of 9 % in future landings of sardine and an increase of 17 % for jack mackerel when comparing 2015 and 2065 monthly projections. However, no significant differences are shown when comparing the estimated landings for the three fishing effort scenarios. Finally, more integrative and complex conceptual models that consider oceanographic-biophysical, physiological, environmental-resource, and interspecies processes need to be implemented.

  3. Pelagic resources landings in central-southern Chile under the A2 climate change scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yáñez, Eleuterio; Plaza, Francisco; Silva, Claudio; Sánchez, Felipe; Barbieri, María Ángela; Aranis, Antonio

    2016-10-01

    Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were used to predict landings of anchovy ( Engraulis ringens), common sardine ( Strangomera bentincki), and jack mackerel ( Trachurus murphyi) in central-southern Chile. Twelve environmental variables were considered along with fishing effort (fe) and landing statistics from 1973 to 2012. During external validation, the best models with all of the selected variables gave r 2 values of 90 % for anchovy, 96 % for common sardine, and 88 % for jack mackerel. The models were simplified by considering only fe and sea surface temperature from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data (SST-NOAA), and very similar fits were achieved (87, 92, and 88 %, respectively). Future SSTs were obtained from the A2 climate change scenario and regionalized using statistical downscaling techniques. The downscaled SSTs were used as input for landings predictions using ANN simplified models. In addition, three scenarios of future fishing efforts (2010-2012 average, average + 50 %, and average - 50 %) were used as the input data for landing simulations. The results of the predictions show a decrease of 9 % in future landings of sardine and an increase of 17 % for jack mackerel when comparing 2015 and 2065 monthly projections. However, no significant differences are shown when comparing the estimated landings for the three fishing effort scenarios. Finally, more integrative and complex conceptual models that consider oceanographic-biophysical, physiological, environmental-resource, and interspecies processes need to be implemented.

  4. Final report: Task 4a.2 20% wind scenario assessment of electric grid operational features

    SciTech Connect

    Toole, Gasper L.

    2009-01-01

    Wind integration modeling in electricity generation capacity expansion models is important in that these models are often used to inform political or managerial decisions. Poor representation of wind technology leads to under-estimation of wind's contribution to future energy scenarios which may hamper growth of the industry. The NREL's Wind Energy Deployment System (WinDS) model provides the most detailed representation of geographically disperse renewable resources and the optimization of transmission expansion to access these resources. Because WinDS was selected as the primary modeling tool for the 20% Wind Energy by 2030 study, it is the ideal tool for supplemental studies of the transmission expansion results. However, as the wind industry grows and knowledge related to the wind resource and integration of wind energy into the electric system develops, the WinDS model must be continually improved through additional data and innovative algorithms to capture the primary effects of variable wind generation. The detailed representation of wind technology in the WinDS model can be used to provide improvements to the simplified representation of wind technology in other capacity expansion models. This task did not employ the WinDS model, but builds from it and its results. Task 4a.2 provides an assessment of the electric grid operational features of the 20% Wind scenario and was conducted using power flow models accepted by the utility industry. Tasks 2 provides information regarding the physical flow of electricity on the electric grid which is a critical aspect of infrastructure expansion scenarios. Expanding transmission infrastructure to access remote wind resource in a physically realizable way is essential to achieving 20% wind energy by 2030.

  5. Position coding effects in a 2D scenario: the case of musical notation.

    PubMed

    Perea, Manuel; García-Chamorro, Cristina; Centelles, Arnau; Jiménez, María

    2013-07-01

    How does the cognitive system encode the location of objects in a visual scene? In the past decade, this question has attracted much attention in the field of visual-word recognition (e.g., "jugde" is perceptually very close to "judge"). Letter transposition effects have been explained in terms of perceptual uncertainty or shared "open bigrams". In the present study, we focus on note position coding in music reading (i.e., a 2D scenario). The usual way to display music is the staff (i.e., a set of 5 horizontal lines and their resultant 4 spaces). When reading musical notation, it is critical to identify not only each note (temporal duration), but also its pitch (y-axis) and its temporal sequence (x-axis). To examine note position coding, we employed a same-different task in which two briefly and consecutively presented staves contained four notes. The experiment was conducted with experts (musicians) and non-experts (non-musicians). For the "different" trials, the critical conditions involved staves in which two internal notes that were switched vertically, horizontally, or fully transposed--as well as the appropriate control conditions. Results revealed that note position coding was only approximate at the early stages of processing and that this encoding process was modulated by expertise. We examine the implications of these findings for models of object position encoding.

  6. Position coding effects in a 2D scenario: the case of musical notation.

    PubMed

    Perea, Manuel; García-Chamorro, Cristina; Centelles, Arnau; Jiménez, María

    2013-07-01

    How does the cognitive system encode the location of objects in a visual scene? In the past decade, this question has attracted much attention in the field of visual-word recognition (e.g., "jugde" is perceptually very close to "judge"). Letter transposition effects have been explained in terms of perceptual uncertainty or shared "open bigrams". In the present study, we focus on note position coding in music reading (i.e., a 2D scenario). The usual way to display music is the staff (i.e., a set of 5 horizontal lines and their resultant 4 spaces). When reading musical notation, it is critical to identify not only each note (temporal duration), but also its pitch (y-axis) and its temporal sequence (x-axis). To examine note position coding, we employed a same-different task in which two briefly and consecutively presented staves contained four notes. The experiment was conducted with experts (musicians) and non-experts (non-musicians). For the "different" trials, the critical conditions involved staves in which two internal notes that were switched vertically, horizontally, or fully transposed--as well as the appropriate control conditions. Results revealed that note position coding was only approximate at the early stages of processing and that this encoding process was modulated by expertise. We examine the implications of these findings for models of object position encoding. PMID:23692999

  7. Preliminary forecasts of Pacific bigeye tuna population trends under the A2 IPCC scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lehodey, P.; Senina, I.; Sibert, J.; Bopp, L.; Calmettes, B.; Hampton, J.; Murtugudde, R.

    2010-07-01

    An improved version of the spatial ecosystem and population dynamics model SEAPODYM was used to investigate the potential impacts of global warming on tuna populations. The model included an enhanced definition of habitat indices, movements, and accessibility of tuna predators to different vertically migrant and non-migrant micronekton functional groups. The simulations covered the Pacific basin (model domain) at a 2° × 2° geographic resolution. The structure of the model allows an evaluation from multiple data sources, and parameterization can be optimized by adjoint techniques and maximum likelihood using fishing data. A first such optimized parameterization was obtained for bigeye tuna ( Thunnus obesus) in the Pacific Ocean using historical catch data for the last 50 years and a hindcast from a coupled physical-biogeochemical model driven by the NCEP atmospheric reanalysis. The parameterization provided very plausible biological parameter values and a good fit to fishing data from the different fisheries, both within and outside the time period used for optimization. We then employed this model to forecast the future of bigeye tuna populations in the Pacific Ocean. The simulation was driven by the physical-biogeochemical fields predicted from a global marine biogeochemistry - climate simulation. This global simulation was performed with the IPSL climate model version 4 (IPSL-CM4) coupled to the oceanic biogeochemical model PISCES and forced by atmospheric CO 2, from historical records over 1860-2000, and under the SRES A2 IPCC scenario for the 21st century (i.e. atmospheric CO 2 concentration reaching 850 ppm in the year 2100). Potential future changes in distribution and abundance under the IPCC scenario are presented but without taking into account any fishing effort. The simulation showed an improvement in bigeye tuna spawning habitat both in subtropical latitudes and in the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP) where the surface temperature becomes optimal for

  8. Forecasts of swordfish (Xiphias gladius) and common sardine (Strangomera bentincki) off Chile under the A2 IPCC climate change scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silva, Claudio; Yáñez, Eleuterio; Barbieri, María Angela; Bernal, Claudio; Aranis, Antonio

    2015-05-01

    Recent studies have demonstrated the effects of climate change on both oceanographic conditions and the relative abundance and distribution of fisheries resources. In this study, we investigated the impacts of climate change on swordfish (Xiphias gladius) and common sardine (Strangomera bentincki) fisheries using predictions of changes from global models (according to the NCAR model and IPCC emissions scenario A2), bioclimate envelope models and satellite-based sea surface temperature (SST) estimates from high-resolution regional models for the simulation period 2015-2065. Predictions of SST from global climate models were regionalised using the Delta statistical downscaling technique. The results show an SST trend of 0.0196 °C per year in the study area, equivalent to 0.98 °C for the simulation horizon and for a high CO2 emission scenario (A2). The bioclimate envelope models were developed using historical (2001-2011) monthly environmental and fisheries data. These data included the local relative abundance index of fish catch per unit effort (CPUE), corresponding to the total catch (kg) by 1000 hooks in a 1° latitude × 1° longitude fishing grid for swordfish and to the total catch (ton) by hold capacity (100 m3) in a 10‧ latitude × 10‧ longitude grid for common sardine. The environmental data included temporal (month), spatial (latitude) and thermal conditions (SST). In the first step of the bioclimate modelling performed in this study, generalised additive models (GAMs) were used as an exploratory tool to identify the functional relationships between the environmental variables and CPUE. These relationships were then parameterised using general linear models (GLMs) to provide a robust forecasting tool. With this modelling approach, environmental variables explained 58.7% of the variation in the CPUE of swordfish and 60.6% of the variation in the CPUE of common sardine in the final GLMs. Using IDRISI GIS, these GLMs simulated monthly changes in the

  9. Appendix E: Other NEMS-MP results for the base case and scenarios.

    SciTech Connect

    Plotkin, S. E.; Singh, M. K.; Energy Systems

    2009-12-03

    The NEMS-MP model generates numerous results for each run of a scenario. (This model is the integrated National Energy Modeling System [NEMS] version used for the Multi-Path Transportation Futures Study [MP].) This appendix examines additional findings beyond the primary results reported in the Multi-Path Transportation Futures Study: Vehicle Characterization and Scenario Analyses (Reference 1). These additional results are provided in order to help further illuminate some of the primary results. Specifically discussed in this appendix are: (1) Energy use results for light vehicles (LVs), including details about the underlying total vehicle miles traveled (VMT), the average vehicle fuel economy, and the volumes of the different fuels used; (2) Resource fuels and their use in the production of ethanol, hydrogen (H{sub 2}), and electricity; (3) Ethanol use in the scenarios (i.e., the ethanol consumption in E85 vs. other blends, the percent of travel by flex fuel vehicles on E85, etc.); (4) Relative availability of E85 and H2 stations; (5) Fuel prices; (6) Vehicle prices; and (7) Consumer savings. These results are discussed as follows: (1) The three scenarios (Mixed, (P)HEV & Ethanol, and H2 Success) when assuming vehicle prices developed through literature review; (2) The three scenarios with vehicle prices that incorporate the achievement of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) program vehicle cost goals; (3) The three scenarios with 'literature review' vehicle prices, plus vehicle subsidies; and (4) The three scenarios with 'program goals' vehicle prices, plus vehicle subsidies. The four versions or cases of each scenario are referred to as: Literature Review No Subsidies, Program Goals No Subsidies, Literature Review with Subsidies, and Program Goals with Subsidies. Two additional points must be made here. First, none of the results presented for LVs in this section include Class 2B trucks. Results for this class are included occasionally in Reference 1. They

  10. The role of renewable energy in climate stabilization: results from the EMF 27 scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Luderer, Gunnar; Krey, Volker; Calvin, Katherine V.; Merrick, James; Mima, Silvana; Pietzcker, Robert; Van Vliet, Jasper; Wada, Kenichi

    2013-10-15

    This paper uses the EMF27 scenarios to explore the role of renewable energy (RE) in climate change mitigation. Currently RE supplies almost 20 % of global electricity demand. Almost all EMF27 mitigation scenarios show a strong increase in renewable power production, with a substantial ramp-up of wind and solar power deployment. In many scenarios, renewables are the most important long-term mitigation option for power supply. Wind energy is competitive even without climate policy, whereas the prospects of solar photovoltaics (PV) are highly contingent on the ambitiousness of climate policy. Bioenergy is an important and versatile energy carrier; however—with the exception of low temperature heat—there is less scope for renewables other than biomass for non-electric energy supply. Despite the important role of wind and solar power in climate change mitigation scenarios with full technology availability, limiting their deployment has a relatively small effect on mitigation costs, if nuclear and carbon capture and storage (CCS)—which can serve as substitutes in low-carbon power supply—are available. Limited bioenergy availability in combination with limited wind and solar power by contrast, results in a more substantial increase in mitigation costs. While a number of robust insights emerge, the results on renewable energy deployment levels vary considerably across the models. An in-depth analysis of a subset of EMF27 reveals substantial differences in modeling approaches and parameter assumptions. To a certain degree, differences in model results can be attributed to different assumptions about technology costs, resource potentials and systems integration.

  11. Future Arctic temperature change resulting from a range of aerosol emissions scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wobus, Cameron; Flanner, Mark; Sarofim, Marcus C.; Moura, Maria Cecilia P.; Smith, Steven J.

    2016-06-01

    The Arctic temperature response to emissions of aerosols -- specifically black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), and sulfate -- depends on both the sector and the region where these emissions originate. Thus, the net Arctic temperature response to global aerosol emissions reductions will depend strongly on the blend of emissions sources being targeted. We use recently published equilibrium Arctic temperature response factors for BC, OC, and sulfate to estimate the range of present-day and future Arctic temperature changes from seven different aerosol emissions scenarios. Globally, Arctic temperature changes calculated from all of these emissions scenarios indicate that present-day emissions from the domestic and transportation sectors generate the majority of present-day Arctic warming from BC. However, in all of these scenarios, this warming is more than offset by cooling resulting from SO2 emissions from the energy sector. Thus, long-term climate mitigation strategies that are focused on reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the energy sector could generate short-term, aerosol-induced Arctic warming. A properly phased approach that targets BC-rich emissions from the transportation sector as well as the domestic sectors in key regions -- while simultaneously working toward longer-term goals of CO2 mitigation -- could potentially avoid some amount of short-term Arctic warming.

  12. Potential dose distributions at proposed surface radioactvity clearance levels resulting from occupational scenarios.

    SciTech Connect

    Kamboj, S.; Yu, C.; Rabovsky, J.

    2011-08-02

    The purpose of this report is to evaluate the potential dose distribution resulting from surface radioactivity, using occupational radiation exposure scenarios. The surface radioactivity clearance values considered in this analysis may ultimately replace those currently specified in the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) requirements and guidance for radiological protection of workers, the public and the environment. The surface contamination values apply to radioactive contamination deposited on a surface (i.e., not incorporated into the interior of the material). For these calculations, the dose coefficients for intake of radionuclides were taken from ICRP Publication 68 (ICRP 1994), and external exposure dose coefficients were taken from the compact disc (CD) that accompanied Federal Guidance Report (FGR) 13 (Eckerman et al. 1999). The ICRP Publication 68 dose coefficients were based on ICRP Publication 60 (ICRP 1990) and were used specifically for worker dose calculations. The calculated dose in this analysis is the 'effective dose' (ED), rather than the 'effective dose equivalent' (EDE).

  13. NPE 2010 results - Independent performance assessment by simulated CTBT violation scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ross, O.; Bönnemann, C.; Ceranna, L.; Gestermann, N.; Hartmann, G.; Plenefisch, T.

    2012-04-01

    earthquakes by seismological analysis. The remaining event at Black Thunder Mine, Wyoming, on 23 Oct at 21:15 UTC showed clear explosion characteristics. It caused also Infrasound detections at one station in Canada. An infrasonic one station localization algorithm led to event localization results comparable in precision to the teleseismic localization. However, the analysis of regional seismological stations gave the most accurate result giving an error ellipse of about 60 square kilometer. Finally a forward ATM simulation was performed with the candidate event as source in order to reproduce the original detection scenario. The ATM results showed a simulated station fingerprint in the IMS very similar to the fictitious detections given in the NPE 2010 scenario which is an additional confirmation that the event was correctly identified. The shown event analysis of the NPE 2010 serves as successful example for Data Fusion between the technology of radionuclide detection supported by ATM and seismological methodology as well as infrasound signal processing.

  14. On the rapid and efficient divulgation of monitoring results in landslide emergency scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giordan, Daniele; Allasia, Paolo; Manconi, Andrea; Bertolo, Davide

    2014-05-01

    In last decades, the availability of several technological systems to monitor different physical parameters that can be used to control a landslide evolution recorded an exponential growth. In particular, surficial and deep-seated displacements of an instable area, as well as meteorological or hydrological parameters can be nowadays acquired with high spatial and temporal resolutions. As a consequence, the application of complex monitoring systems produces large amounts of data. While this can be considered an important progress in the field of landslide monitoring applications, the availability of large volumes of high resolution and multiparametric information implies important challenges. In this context, two main criticalities are: i) the integrated management of dataset produced by different monitoring systems and ii) the correct divulgation of monitoring results. In this work, we present the results of a real case-study relevant to a complex emergency scenario, i.e. the Mont de La Saxe landslide, a large rockslide (with an estimated volume or more than 8 million of cubic meters) that threatens La Palud and Entrèves hamlets in the Courmayeur municipality (Aosta Valley, Italy). We developed a web-based system based on the ADVICE algorithm (Allasia et al., 2013) in order to manage several data sources. The system collects, analyzes and publishes the results obtained by monitoring instrumentations in near-real-time at each new measurement cycle. Moreover, by collecting all the data in an unique web-based platform reduces the problems of compatibility amongst different monitoring systems, which usually rely on customized software for the data processing, delaying the comparative analysis comparison amongst different data sources. This is indeed a crucial task for decision makers, in particular during the emergency phases. In addition, by using the developed web-based platform we aimed at coping with another important task, often not considered and

  15. SCENARIOS FOR MEETING CALIFORNIA'S 2050 CLIMATE GOALS California's Carbon Challenge Phase II Volume I: Non-Electricity Sectors and Overall Scenario Results

    SciTech Connect

    Wei, Max; Greenblatt, Jeffrey; Donovan, Sally; Nelson, James; Mileva, Ana; Johnston, Josiah; Kammen, Daniel

    2014-06-01

    This study provides an updated analysis of long-term energy system scenarios for California consistent with the State meeting its 2050 climate goal, including detailed analysis and assessment of electricity system build-out, operation, and costs across the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) region. Four key elements are found to be critical for the State to achieve its 2050 goal of 80 percent greenhouse (GHG) reductions from the 1990 level: aggressive energy efficiency; clean electricity; widespread electrification of passenger vehicles, building heating, and industry heating; and large-scale production of low-carbon footprint biofuels to largely replace petroleum-based liquid fuels. The approach taken here is that technically achievable energy efficiency measures are assumed to be achieved by 2050 and aggregated with the other key elements mentioned above to estimate resultant emissions in 2050. The energy and non-energy sectors are each assumed to have the objective of meeting an 80 percent reduction from their respective 1990 GHG levels for the purposes of analysis. A different partitioning of energy and non-energy sector GHG greenhouse reductions is allowed if emission reductions in one sector are more economic or technically achievable than in the other. Similarly, within the energy or non-energy sectors, greater or less than 80 percent reduction from 1990 is allowed for sub-sectors within the energy or non-energy sectors as long as the overall target is achieved. Overall emissions for the key economy-wide scenarios are considered in this report. All scenarios are compliant or nearly compliant with the 2050 goal. This finding suggests that multiple technical pathways exist to achieve the target with aggressive policy support and continued technology development of largely existing technologies.

  16. Testing the hot-flasher scenario with asteroseismological tools. First Results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miller Bertolami, M. M.; Córsico, A. H.; Althaus, L. G.

    2010-11-01

    A core helium flash after the departure from the red giant branch (i.e. "hot-flasher scenario") offers one of the most promising explanations for the origin of He-sdO stars. Recently, Miller Bertolami et al. (2008) have shown that many surface properties of H-deficient sdO stars (the He-sdO stars) could be explained through this scenario if chemical diffusion is taken into account. In this context the He-sdO stars formed during a hot-flasher event would transform into H-rich hot-sdB stars (33000-38000 K) as a consequence of diffusion of the remaining H towards the surface of the star. Thus, some hot sdBs might be the descendants of He-sdO stars that have previously burnt most of their H-content and, thus, a very thin H envelope should be expected (10-9 to 10-10 M⊙, see Miller Bertolami et al. 2008 for details). Interestingly enough, the location of these sdB stars in the logg - Teff diagram should overlap with the domain of the rapidly pulsating (p-mode) EC 14026 stars. This fact opens the interesting possibility of employing asteroseismology to investigate the existence of hot-sdB stars characterized by such very thin H envelopes. In this preliminary investigation, we explore the sensitivity of the acoustic pulsation spectrum of EC 14026 stars to the thickness of the H envelope. The pulsation analysis presented in this work was performed with the help of the adiabatic radial and nonradial pulsation code employed by our group in numerous asteroseismological studies of white dwarfs and pre-white dwarfs (see Córsico et al. 2008 and references therein). The stellar models adopted in the present study where extracted from the 0.48150 M⊙ (Z= 0.001) sequence of Miller Bertolami et al. (2008). Given the exploratory nature of this work, in order to analyze the effects of different thicknesses of the H-rich envelope on the pulsation spectrum of sdB stars we have artificially added a H-rich envelope in the outermost layers of our initial model. We have considered four

  17. Integrating Climate Change Scenarios and Co-developed Policy Scenarios to Inform Coastal Adaptation: Results from a Tillamook County, Oregon Knowledge to Action Network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lipiec, E.; Ruggiero, P.; Serafin, K.; Bolte, J.; Mills, A.; Corcoran, P.; Stevenson, J.; Lach, D.

    2014-12-01

    Local decision-makers often lack both the information and tools to reduce their community's overall vulnerability to current and future climate change impacts. Managers are restricted in their actions by the scale of the problem, inherent scientific uncertainty, limits of information exchange, and the global nature of available data, rendering place-based strategies difficult to generate. Several U.S. Pacific Northwest coastal communities are already experiencing chronic erosion and flooding, hazards only to be exacerbated by sea level rise and changing patterns of storminess associated with climate change. To address these issues, a knowledge to action network (KTAN) consisting of local Tillamook County stakeholders and Oregon State University researchers, was formed to project future flooding and erosion impacts and determine possible adaptation policies to reduce vulnerability. Via an iterative scenario planning process, the KTAN has developed four distinct adaptation policy scenarios, including 'Status Quo', 'Hold The Line', 'ReAlign', and 'Laissez-Faire'. These policy scenarios are being integrated with a range of climate change scenarios within the modeling framework Envision, a multi-agent GIS-based tool, which allows for the combination of physical processes data, probabilistic climate change information, coastal flood and erosion models, and stakeholder driven adaptation strategies into distinct plausible future scenarios. Because exact physical and social responses to climate change are impossible to ascertain, information about the differences between possible future scenarios can provide valuable information to decision-makers and the community at large. For example, the fewest projected coastal flood and erosion impacts to buildings occur under the 'ReAlign' policy scenario (i.e., adaptation strategies that move dwellings away from the coast) under both low and high climate change scenarios, especially in comparison to the 'Status Quo' or 'Hold The

  18. Evolution of Fuel-Air and Contaminant Clouds Resulting from a Cruise Missile Explosion Scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Grossman, A S; Kul, A L

    2005-06-22

    A low-mach-number hydrodynamics model has been used to simulate the evolution of a fuel-air mixture and contaminant cloud resulting from the detonation of a cruise missile. The detonation has been assumed to be non-nuclear. The cloud evolution has been carried out to a time of 5.5 seconds. At this time the contaminant has completely permeated the initial fuel-air mixture cloud.

  19. What Factors Moderate Self-Other Discrepancies in Decision Making? Results from a Vaccination Scenario.

    PubMed

    Petrova, Dafina; Garcia-Retamero, Rocio; van der Pligt, Joop

    2016-01-01

    When we make risky decisions for others, we tend to follow social norms about risks. This often results in making different decisions for others than we would make for ourselves in a similar situation (i.e., self-other discrepancies). In an experiment, we investigated self-other discrepancies in young adults' decisions to purchase a vaccine against a sexually-transmitted virus for themselves or for another person (i.e., the target of the decision). When the target's preferences were in line with social norms, surrogates showed large self-other discrepancies in line with these norms. When the target's preferences were contrary to social norms, surrogates did not show self-other discrepancies in line with these preferences; instead they still followed social norms, F(1, 140) = 21.45, p < .001, η p 2 = .13. Surrogates with lower numeracy, F(2, 128) = 3.44, p = .035, η p 2 = .05, and higher empathy, F(2, 128) = 3.72, p = .027, η p 2 = .06, showed self-other discrepancies more in line with the target's preferences, even when these were contrary to the norm. Surrogates whose own risk attitudes were contrary to social norms showed larger self-other discrepancies, F(1, 128) = 5.38, p = .022, η p 2 = .04. These results demonstrate that perceived social norms about risk can predict self-other discrepancies in risky decisions, even when the target's preferences are known and at odds with the social norm. Further, the surrogates' numeracy, empathy, and propensity to take risks influence the extent to which risky decisions for others resemble risky decisions for oneself. PMID:27646872

  20. Possible change in distribution of seaweed, Sargassum horneri, in northeast Asia under A2 scenario of global warming and consequent effect on some fish.

    PubMed

    Komatsu, Teruhisa; Fukuda, Masahiro; Mikami, Atsuko; Mizuno, Shizuha; Kantachumpoo, Attachai; Tanoue, Hideaki; Kawamiya, Michio

    2014-08-30

    Global warming effects on seaweed beds are already perceptible. Their geographical distributions greatly depend on water temperatures. To predict future geographical distributions of brown alga, Sargassum horneri, forming large beds in the northwestern Pacific, we referred to future monthly surface water temperatures at about 1.1° of longitude and 0.6° of latitude in February and August in 2050 and 2100 simulated by 12 organizations under an A2 scenario of global warming. The southern limit of S. horneri distribution is expected to keep moving northward such that it may broadly disappear from Honshu Island, the Chinese coast, and Korean Peninsula in 2100, when tropical Sargassum species such as Sargassum tenuifolium may not completely replace S. horneri. Thus, their forests in 2100 do not substitute those of S. horneri in 2000. Fishes using the beds and seaweed rafts consisting of S. horneri in East China Sea suffer these disappearances.

  1. Seasonal changes in the regional hydrological cycle and resulting potential vegetation changes in an aggressive mitigation scenario compared to SRES A1B

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huebener, H.; Höschel, I.; Körber, J.; Sanderson, M.; Johns, T. C.; Royer, J.-F.; Melia, D. Salas Y.; Roeckner, E.; Giorgetta, M.; Manzini, E.

    2010-09-01

    An aggressive mitigation scenario named E1 was developed in the EU FP6 Project ENSEMBLES, starting from current concentration levels (scenario path of SRES A1B) and leading to an eventual stabilization of CO2-eq. concentrations at 450 ppm beyond 2100. A set of 10 GCM and ESM was used to simulate climate change until 2100 under the E1 scenario, compared to the baseline A1B scenario. Previous analysis has shown that the ensemble mean warming stays below the 2K-target. In this presentation, focus will be on monthly and seasonal analyses of changes in the hydrological cycle and resulting potential vegetation changes, represented by biomes. For selected regions (from the 26 Giorgy-Regions) the annual cycles of precipitation, cloudiness and evapotranspiration and related biome changes will be shown. The results will be compared between the two scenarios and particularly vulnerable regions will be identified. Results will be discussed with special focus on the avoided climate change under the E1 scenario as compared to the A1B scenario. This allows assessing both, profits of keeping the 2K-target and changes that are unavoidable even under the aggressive mitigation path necessary to keep the 2K-target. Biome changes for both scenarios reflect shifts to a warmer climate but are more pronounced in the A1B scenario compared to the E1 scenario. For example, in North-Eastern Europe, an expansion of Temperate Mixed Forest and Cool Mixed forests is simulated replacing Cool Conifer Forests and Taiga. Further south, in the Mediterranean Basin temperate Mixed Forests are replaced by Xerophytic Woodland, Warm Grassland and Warm Mixed Forest.

  2. Projected SST trends across the Caribbean Sea based on PRECIS downscaling of ECHAM4, under the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nurse, Leonard A.; Charlery, John L.

    2016-01-01

    The Caribbean Sea and adjacent land areas are highly sensitive to the projected impacts of global climate change. The countries bordering the Caribbean Sea depend heavily on coastal and marine assets as a major source of livelihood support. Rising sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are known to be associated with coral bleaching, ocean acidification, and other phenomena that threaten livelihoods in the region. The paucity of SST systematic observations in both the Caribbean Sea and adjoining Western Atlantic waters is a limiting factor in the projection of future climate change impacts on the region's marine resources. Remote sensing of SST by satellites began only within the last three decades and although the data collected so far might be insufficient to provide conclusive definitions of long-term SST variations in the Caribbean waters, these data along with the output from climate model simulations provide a useful basis for gaining further insights into plausible SST futures under IPCC SRES scenarios. In this paper, we examine the recent SST records from the NESDIS AVHRR satellite data and NOAA Optimum Interpolation (OI) sea surface temperature V2 and provide a comparative analysis of projected SST changes for the Caribbean Sea up to the end of the twenty-first century, under the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios' simulations of the sea surface skin temperatures (SSsT) using the Hadley Centre's regional model, PRECIS. The implications of these projected SST changes for bleaching of coral reefs, one of the region's most valuable marine resource, and for rainfall are also discussed.

  3. Enhanced factor VIIIa stability of A2 domain interface variants results from an increased apparent affinity for the A2 subunit. Results from an increased apparent affinity for the A2 subunit.

    PubMed

    Monaghan, M; Wakabayashi, H; Griffiths, A; Wintermute, J; Fay, P J

    2014-09-01

    Factor (F)VIIIa, a heterotrimer comprised of A1, A2, and A3C1C2 subunits, is labile due to the tendency of the A2 subunit to dissociate from the A1/A3C1C2 dimer. As dissociation of the A2 subunit inactivates FVIIIa activity, retention of A2 defines FVIIIa stability and thus, FXase activity. Earlier results showed that replacing residues D519, E665, and E1984 at the A2 domain interface with Ala or Val reduced rates of FVIIIa decay, increasing FXa and thrombin generation. We now show the enhanced FVIIIa stability of these variants results from increases in inter-A2 subunit affinity. Using a FVIIIa reconstitution assay to monitor inter-subunit affinity by activity regeneration, the apparent Kd value for the interaction of wild-type (WT) A2 subunit with WT A1/A3C1C2 dimer (43 ± 2 nM) was significantly higher than values observed for the A2 point mutants D519A/V, E665A/V, and E1984A/V which ranged from ~5 to ~19 nM. Val was determined to be the optimal hydrophobic residue at position 665 (apparent Kd = 5.1 ± 0.7 nM) as substitutions with Ile or Leu at this position increased the apparent Kd value by ~3- and ~7-fold, respectively. Furthermore, the double mutant (D519V/E665V) showed an ~47-fold lower apparent Kd value (0.9 ± 0.6 nM) than WT. Thus these hydrophobic mutations at the A2 subunit interfaces result in high binding affinities for the A2 subunit and correlate well with previously observed reductions in rates in FVIIIa decay. PMID:24899227

  4. Improved operating scenarios of the DIII-D tokamak as a result of the addition of UNIX computer systems

    SciTech Connect

    Henline, P.A.

    1995-10-01

    The increased use of UNIX based computer systems for machine control, data handling and analysis has greatly enhanced the operating scenarios and operating efficiency of the DRI-D tokamak. This paper will describe some of these UNIX systems and their specific uses. These include the plasma control system, the electron cyclotron heating control system, the analysis of electron temperature and density measurements and the general data acquisition system (which is collecting over 130 Mbytes of data). The speed and total capability of these systems has dramatically affected the ability to operate DIII-D. The improved operating scenarios include better plasma shape control due to the more thorough MHD calculations done between shots and the new ability to see the time dependence of profile data as it relates across different spatial locations in the tokamak. Other analysis which engenders improved operating abilities will be described.

  5. Renormalization-group improved inflationary scalar electrodynamics and SU(5) scenarios confronted with Planck 2013 and BICEP2 results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elizalde, E.; Odintsov, S. D.; Pozdeeva, E. O.; Vernov, S. Yu.

    2014-10-01

    The possibility to construct inflationary models for the renormalization-group (RG) improved potentials corresponding to scalar electrodynamics and to SU(2) and SU(5) models is investigated. In all cases, the tree-level potential, which corresponds to the cosmological constant in the Einstein frame, is seen to be nonsuitable for inflation. Rather than adding the Hilbert-Einstein term to the action, quantum corrections to the potential, coming from the RG equation, are included. The inflationary scenario is analyzed with unstable de Sitter solutions that correspond to positive values of the coupling function, only. We show that, for the finite SU(2) model and SU(2) gauge model, there are no de Sitter solutions suitable for inflation, unless exit from it occurs according to some weird, nonstandard scenarios. Inflation is realized both for scalar electrodynamics and for SU(5) RG-improved potentials, and the corresponding values of the coupling function are seen to be positive. It is shown that, for quite reasonable values of the parameters, the inflationary models obtained both from scalar electrodynamics and from the SU(5) RG-improved potentials are in good agreement with the most recent observational data coming from the Planck 2013 and BICEP2 collaborations.

  6. Dark scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahonen, Pasi; Alahuhta, Petteri; Daskala, Barbara; Delaitre, Sabine; Hert, Paul De; Lindner, Ralf; Maghiros, Ioannis; Moscibroda, Anna; Schreurs, Wim; Verlinden, Michiel

    In this chapter, we present four "dark scenarios" that highlight the key socio-economic, legal, technological and ethical risks to privacy, identity, trust, security and inclusiveness posed by new AmI technologies. We call them dark scenarios, because they show things that could go wrong in an AmI world, because they present visions of the future that we do not want to become reality. The scenarios expose threats and vulnerabilities as a way to inform policy-makers and planners about issues they need to take into account in developing new policies or updating existing legislation. Before presenting the four scenarios and our analysis of each, we describe the process of how we created the scenarios as well as the elements in our methodology for analysing the scenarios.

  7. Decomposing uncertainties in the future terrestrial carbon budget associated with emission scenario, climate projection, and ecosystem simulation using the ISI-MIP result

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nishina, K.; Ito, A.; Falloon, P.; Friend, A. D.; Beerling, D. J.; Ciais, P.; Clark, D. B.; Kahana, R.; Kato, E.; Lucht, W.; Lomas, M.; Pavlick, R.; Schaphoff, S.; Warszawaski, L.; Yokohata, T.

    2014-10-01

    Changes to global net primary production (NPP), vegetation biomass carbon (VegC), and soil organic carbon (SOC) estimated by six global vegetation models (GVM) obtained from an Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project study were examined. Simulation results were obtained using five global climate models (GCM) forced with four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. To clarify which component (emission scenarios, climate projections, or global vegetation models) contributes the most to uncertainties in projected global terrestrial C cycling by 2100, analysis of variance (ANOVA) and wavelet clustering were applied to 70 projected simulation sets. In the end of simulation period, the changes from the year of 2000 in all three variables considerably varied from net negative to positive values. ANOVA revealed that the main sources of uncertainty are different among variables and depend on the projection period. We determined that in the global VegC, and SOC projections, GVMs dominate uncertainties (60 and 90%, respectively) rather than climate driving scenarios, i.e., RCPs and GCMs. These results suggested that we don't have still enough resolution among each RCP scenario to evaluate climate change impacts on ecosystem conditions in global terrestrial C cycling. In addition, we found that the contributions of each uncertainty source were spatio-temporally heterogeneous and differed among the GVM variables. The dominant uncertainty source for changes in NPP and VegC varies along the climatic gradient. The contribution of GVM to the uncertainty decreases as the climate division gets cooler (from ca. 80% in the equatorial division to 40% in the snow climatic division). To evaluate the effects of climate change on ecosystems with practical resolution in RCP scenarios, GVMs require further improvement to reduce the uncertainties in global C cycling as much as, if not more than, GCMs. Our study suggests that the improvement of GVMs is a priority for

  8. Preparing Corrections Staff for the Future: Results of a 2-Day Training About Aging Inmates.

    PubMed

    Masters, Julie L; Magnuson, Thomas M; Bayer, Barbara L; Potter, Jane F; Falkowski, Paul P

    2016-04-01

    The aging of the prison population presents corrections staff with unique challenges in knowing how to support inmates while maintaining security. This article describes a 2-day training program to introduce the aging process to select staff at all levels. While the results of a pre-posttest measure, using a modified version of Palmore's Facts on Aging Quiz, did not produce a statistically significant difference at the conclusion of the training, attendees did express satisfaction with the training and their newfound insight into the challenges faced by aging inmates. They also offered recommendations for future training to include more practical suggestions for the work environment.

  9. Canadian economic and emissions model for agriculture, C.E.E.M.A., version 1.0, report 2: Preliminary results of selected scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Kulshreshtha, S.N.

    1999-09-01

    This is one of three technical reports which document an integrated agro-ecological economic modelling system that can be used to simultaneously assess the economic and the greenhouse gas emission impacts of agricultural policies at the regional and national levels. After an introduction on the importance of agricultural emissions of greenhouse gases and the need for a study of this issue, chapter 2 reviews the greenhouse gas emission model. Chapter 3 contains model-based estimates of greenhouse gas emission levels for the base year of 1990. Chapter 4 predicts future levels of emissions under medium-term baseline projections. Chapter 5 reviews some of the mitigation strategies available to Canadian farmers and assesses their impact on greenhouse emissions. Implications of trends in livestock production are also examined as a separate scenario. Using the scenarios developed in chapter 5, chapter 6 presents results of greenhouse gas emission estimates for individual gases, various production regions, and various emissions activities. The final chapter summarizes major results and discusses their implications for agricultural policy. Appendices include a description of the modelling methodology and a table showing estimates of the distribution of greenhouse gas emissions by crop and livestock production activities under various scenarios.

  10. Test results of a 2 kW internal manifold MCFC stack

    SciTech Connect

    Lim, H C; Seol, J H; Ahn, K S

    1996-01-01

    A R&D program on MCFC, of which current target is to establish the fundamental technology through fabricating a 2k-W stack with the performance higher than 0.8V at 150mA/cm{sup 2}, has been started since 1993. The program consisted of two phases : a AW class MCFC stack and the test facility will be constructed and operated during the first phase (1993-1996) and then a 100k-W MCFC system will be constructed in the second phase (1997-2002) on the basement of first phase results. From this strategy, KEPRI former the MCFC developing group with Korea Institute of Science and Technology (KIST) and Samsung Heavy Industry (SHI) for fabricating, operating and evaluating of 2k-W MCFC stack. This paper presents the results of this first phase program and some of the problems experienced during its operation and fabrication of stack components. Specification of the stack under operation is shown in Table 1.

  11. Climatic changes and associated impacts in the Mediterranean resulting from a 2 °C global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giannakopoulos, C.; Le Sager, P.; Bindi, M.; Moriondo, M.; Kostopoulou, E.; Goodess, C. M.

    2009-08-01

    Climatic changes over the Mediterranean basin in 2031-2060, when a 2 °C global warming is most likely to occur, are investigated with the HadCM3 global circulation model and their impacts on human activities and natural ecosystem are assessed. Precipitation and surface temperature changes are examined through mean and extreme values analysis, under the A2 and B2 emission scenarios. Confidence in results is obtained via bootstrapping. Over the land areas, the warming is larger than the global average. The rate of warming is found to be around 2 °C in spring and winter, while it reaches 4 °C in summer. An additional month of summer days is expected, along with 2-4 weeks of tropical nights. Increase in heatwave days and decrease in frost nights are expected to be a month inland. In the northern part of the basin the widespread drop in summer rainfall is partially compensated by a winter precipitation increase. One to 3 weeks of additional dry days lead to a dry season lengthened by a week and shifted toward spring in the south of France and inland Algeria, and autumn elsewhere. In central Mediterranean droughts are extended by a month, starting a week earlier and ending 3 weeks later. The impacts of these climatic changes on human activities such as agriculture, energy, tourism and natural ecosystems (forest fires) are also assessed. Regarding agriculture, crops whose growing cycle occurs mostly in autumn and winter show no changes or even an increase in yield. In contrast, summer crops show a remarkable decrease of yield. This different pattern is attributed to a lengthier drought period during summer and to an increased rainfall in winter and autumn. Regarding forest fire risk, an additional month of risk is expected over a great part of the basin. Energy demand levels are expected to fall significantly during a warmer winter period inland, whereas they seem to substantially increase nearly everywhere during summer. Extremely high summer temperatures in the

  12. Results from recent hydrogen pellet acceleration studies with a 2-m railgun

    SciTech Connect

    Kim, K.; Zhang, D.J.; King, T.; Haywood, R.; Manns, W.; Venneri, F.

    1989-12-01

    A new 3.2-mm-diameter, two-stage, fuseless, plasma-arc-driven electromagnetic railgun has been designed, constructed, and successfully operated to achieve a record velocity of 2.67 km/s({sup b}) for 3.2 mmD {times} 4 mmL solid hydrogen pellet. The first stage of this hydrogen pellet injector is a combination of a hydrogen pellet generator and a gas fun. The second stage is a 2-m-long railgun which serves as a booster accelerator. The gas fun accelerates a frozen hydrogen pellet to a medium velocity and injects it into the railgun through a perforated coupling piece, which also serves a pressure-relieving mechanism. An electrical breakdown of the propellant gas, which has followed the pellet from the gas fun into the railgun, forms a conducting plasma-arc armature immediately behind the pellet allowing for fuseless operation of the railgun. Study of the pressure profile and the behavior of the plasma-arc armature inside the railgun bore led to elimination of spurious arcing, which prevents operation of the railgun at high voltages (and, therefore, at high currents). A timing circuit that can automatically measure the pellet input velocity and allows for accurate control of arc initiation behind the pellet helps prevent pellet disintegration and mistriggering of the arc initiation circuit. Results from the recent cryogenic operation of the two-stage pellet acceleration system are reported. 11 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab.

  13. Projections of Future Changes in Extreme Precipitation Events in the Korean Peninsula based on Downscaling by RegCM3 of ECHO-G/S A2 Scenario data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shin, J.; Lee, H.; Cho, C.

    2010-12-01

    ECHO-G A2 climate scenario is transformed into fine resolution 60km data for East Asia and 20 km data for the Korean peninsula using the RegCM3 having a one-way double-nested system. Comparison between the downscaled and local observed precipitation explains that seasonal spatial patterns of downscaled precipitation show good agreements with those of observed data. In terms of magnitude, however, the data simulated by the ECHO-G/S demonstrate dry biases in the summer and fall precipitation amounts, even though regionally-averaged seasonal downscaled precipitation into 20-km nested grids show also good agreement with those observations. Analyses of future climate change scenarios as well as extreme event trends suggest the following projections: the air temperature which is projected to rise by 1.6 Celcius in the early 21st century and by 4.6 Celcius in the late century would increase water vapor content in the air and result in more heavy rainfalls in summer monsoon. Therefore, precipitation is projected to increase by 6.7 % in the early 21st century, and by 31.9% in the late. Extreme precipitation events would happen more frequently in the warmer climate change environments. To examine changes in extreme events, the generalized extreme value analysis methods for daily maximum rainfall in each year is employed. The results show that over the past 30 years (1971-2000), the peaks of the mean value (location) of the maximum rainfall and 20 year occurrence frequency (20-year return value) are found in the southern coast and Central inland provincial regions of the Korean peninsula, while in the 21st century, the location and 20-year return value over the Korean peninsula would increase in the southern coast, central inland, and northern regions above 39 ° N. Key words: downscaling, one-way double-nested system, generalized extreme value analysis, extreme climatic events Acknowledgement This research was supported by a grant (code#1-9-3) from Sustainable Water

  14. Brief Communication: On the rapid and efficient monitoring results dissemination in landslide emergency scenarios: the Mont de La Saxe case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giordan, D.; Manconi, A.; Allasia, P.; Bertolo, D.

    2015-04-01

    Straightforward communication of monitoring results is of major importance in emergency scenarios relevant to large slope instabilities. Here we describe the communication strategy developed for the Mont de La Saxe case study, a large rockslide threatening La Palud and Entrèves hamlets in the Courmayeur municipality (Aosta Valley, Italy). Starting from the definition of actions and needs of the Landslide Management Team, including scientists, technicians, civil protection operators, decision makers, and politicians, we show that sharing and disseminating ad hoc information simplifies the understanding of the landslide evolution, as well as the correct communication of the level of criticality.

  15. Brief Communication: On the rapid and efficient monitoring results dissemination in landslide emergency scenarios: the Mont de La Saxe case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giordan, D.; Manconi, A.; Allasia, P.; Bertolo, D.

    2015-09-01

    Straightforward communication of monitoring results is of major importance in emergency scenarios relevant to large slope instabilities. Here we describe the communication strategy developed for the Mont de La Saxe rockslide threatening La Palud and Entrèves hamlets in the Courmayeur municipality (Aosta Valley, Italy). Starting from the definition of actions and needs of the landslide management team, including scientists, technicians, civil protection operators, decision makers, and politicians, we show that sharing and disseminating ad hoc information simplifies the understanding of the landslide evolution, as well as the correct communication of the level of criticality.

  16. O{sub 3} and stratospheric H{sub 2}O radiative forcing resulting from a supersonic jet transport emission scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Grossman, A.S.; Kinnison, D.E.; Penner, J.E.; Grant, K.E.; Tamaresis, J.; Connell, P.S.

    1996-01-01

    The tropospheric radiative forcing has been calculated for ozone and water vapor perturbations caused by a realistic High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) aircraft emission scenario. Atmospheric profiles of water vapor and ozone were obtained using the LLNL 2-D chemical-radiative-transport model (CRT) of the global troposphere and stratosphere. IR radiative forcing calculations were made with the LLNL correlated k-distribution radiative transfer model. UV-Visible-Near IR radiative forcing calculations were made with the LLNL two stream solar radiation model. For the case of water vapor the IR and Near IR radiative forcing was determined at five different latitudes and then averaged using an appropriate latitudinal average to obtain the global average value. Global average values of radiative forcing were approximately 1.2--2.6 10{sup {minus}3} W/m{sup 2}, depending on the background atmospheric water vapor profile. This result is consistent with prior published values for a similar aircraft scenario and supports the conclusion that the water vapor climate forcing effect is very small. The radiative forcing in the IR and UV-Visible spectral ranges, due to the ozone perturbation, was calculated for the globally averaged atmosphere. Global average values of the radiative forcing were 0.034 W/m{sup 2} for the UV-Visible spectral range and 0.006 W/m{sup 2} for the IR spectral range (0.04 W/m{sup 2} total). This result is also consistent with the range of published values obtained for a similar HSCT scenario. As was the case for water vapor, the ozone forcing is too small to be of major consequence.

  17. Dissolved oxygen analysis, TMDL model comparison, and particulate matter shunting—Preliminary results from three model scenarios for the Klamath River upstream of Keno Dam, Oregon

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sullivan, Annett B.; Rounds, Stewart A.; Deas, Michael L.; Sogutlugil, I. Ertugrul

    2012-01-01

    Efforts are underway to identify actions that would improve water quality in the Link River to Keno Dam reach of the Upper Klamath River in south-central Oregon. To provide further insight into water-quality improvement options, three scenarios were developed, run, and analyzed using previously calibrated CE-QUAL-W2 hydrodynamic and water-quality models. Additional scenarios are under development as part of this ongoing study. Most of these scenarios evaluate changes relative to a "current conditions" model, but in some cases a "natural conditions" model was used that simulated the reach without the effect of point and nonpoint sources and set Upper Klamath Lake at its Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) targets. These scenarios were simulated using a model developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Watercourse Engineering, Inc. for the years 2006–09, referred to here as the "USGS model." Another model of the reach was developed by Tetra Tech, Inc. for years 2000 and 2002 to support the Klamath River TMDL process; that model is referred to here as the "TMDL model." The three scenarios described in this report included (1) an analysis of whether this reach of the Upper Klamath River would be in compliance with dissolved oxygen standards if sources met TMDL allocations, (2) an application of more recent datasets to the TMDL model with comparison to results from the USGS model, and (3) an examination of the effect on dissolved oxygen in the Klamath River if particulate material were stopped from entering Klamath Project diversion canals. Updates and modifications to the USGS model are in progress, so in the future these scenarios will be reanalyzed with the updated model and the interim results presented here will be superseded. Significant findings from this phase of the investigation include: * The TMDL analysis used depth-averaged dissolved oxygen concentrations from model output for comparison with dissolved oxygen standards. The Oregon dissolved oxygen

  18. Decomposing uncertainties in the future terrestrial carbon budget associated with emission scenarios, climate projections, and ecosystem simulations using the ISI-MIP results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nishina, K.; Ito, A.; Falloon, P.; Friend, A. D.; Beerling, D. J.; Ciais, P.; Clark, D. B.; Kahana, R.; Kato, E.; Lucht, W.; Lomas, M.; Pavlick, R.; Schaphoff, S.; Warszawaski, L.; Yokohata, T.

    2015-07-01

    We examined the changes to global net primary production (NPP), vegetation biomass carbon (VegC), and soil organic carbon (SOC) estimated by six global vegetation models (GVMs) obtained from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. Simulation results were obtained using five global climate models (GCMs) forced with four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. To clarify which component (i.e., emission scenarios, climate projections, or global vegetation models) contributes the most to uncertainties in projected global terrestrial C cycling by 2100, analysis of variance (ANOVA) and wavelet clustering were applied to 70 projected simulation sets. At the end of the simulation period, changes from the year 2000 in all three variables varied considerably from net negative to positive values. ANOVA revealed that the main sources of uncertainty are different among variables and depend on the projection period. We determined that in the global VegC and SOC projections, GVMs are the main influence on uncertainties (60 % and 90 %, respectively) rather than climate-driving scenarios (RCPs and GCMs). Moreover, the divergence of changes in vegetation carbon residence times is dominated by GVM uncertainty, particularly in the latter half of the 21st century. In addition, we found that the contribution of each uncertainty source is spatiotemporally heterogeneous and it differs among the GVM variables. The dominant uncertainty source for changes in NPP and VegC varies along the climatic gradient. The contribution of GVM to the uncertainty decreases as the climate division becomes cooler (from ca. 80 % in the equatorial division to 40 % in the snow division). Our results suggest that to assess climate change impacts on global ecosystem C cycling among each RCP scenario, the long-term C dynamics within the ecosystems (i.e., vegetation turnover and soil decomposition) are more critical factors than photosynthetic processes. The different trends in the

  19. Dissolved oxygen analysis, TMDL model comparison, and particulate matter shunting—Preliminary results from three model scenarios for the Klamath River upstream of Keno Dam, Oregon

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sullivan, Annett B.; Rounds, Stewart A.; Deas, Michael L.; Sogutlugil, I. Ertugrul

    2012-01-01

    Efforts are underway to identify actions that would improve water quality in the Link River to Keno Dam reach of the Upper Klamath River in south-central Oregon. To provide further insight into water-quality improvement options, three scenarios were developed, run, and analyzed using previously calibrated CE-QUAL-W2 hydrodynamic and water-quality models. Additional scenarios are under development as part of this ongoing study. Most of these scenarios evaluate changes relative to a "current conditions" model, but in some cases a "natural conditions" model was used that simulated the reach without the effect of point and nonpoint sources and set Upper Klamath Lake at its Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) targets. These scenarios were simulated using a model developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Watercourse Engineering, Inc. for the years 2006–09, referred to here as the "USGS model." Another model of the reach was developed by Tetra Tech, Inc. for years 2000 and 2002 to support the Klamath River TMDL process; that model is referred to here as the "TMDL model." The three scenarios described in this report included (1) an analysis of whether this reach of the Upper Klamath River would be in compliance with dissolved oxygen standards if sources met TMDL allocations, (2) an application of more recent datasets to the TMDL model with comparison to results from the USGS model, and (3) an examination of the effect on dissolved oxygen in the Klamath River if particulate material were stopped from entering Klamath Project diversion canals. Updates and modifications to the USGS model are in progress, so in the future these scenarios will be reanalyzed with the updated model and the interim results presented here will be superseded. Significant findings from this phase of the investigation include: * The TMDL analysis used depth-averaged dissolved oxygen concentrations from model output for comparison with dissolved oxygen standards. The Oregon dissolved oxygen

  20. Clinical Effects and Radiological Results of Vertebroplasty: Over a 2-year Follow-Up Period

    PubMed Central

    Nam, Han Ga Wi; Shin, Il Young; Moon, Seung-Myung; Hwang, Hyung Sik

    2012-01-01

    Objective We investigated the association between clinical and radiological results and assessed the radiological changes according to the distribution pattern and amount of injected cement after vertebroplasty. Methods Two hundred and one patients underwent vertebroplasty; of these, 15 were follow up for more than 2 years. For radiological analysis, we grouped the patients according to cement distribution as follows: group 1, unilateral, unilateral distribution of cement; group 2, bilateral-uneven, bilateral distribution of cement but separated mass; and group 3, bilateral-even, bilateral single mass of cement. To compare radiologic with clinical results, we assessed the visual analogue scale (VAS) score, amount of injected cement, bone mineral density (BMD), postoperative and follow-up vertebral body compression ratios, and postoperative and follow-up kyphotic angles. Results There were 4 (26.7%) patients in group 1, 6 (40.0%) in group 2, and 5 (33.3%) in group 3. The mean VAS score was 5.2 preoperatively, 1.8 postoperatively, and 3.2 at 2-year follow-up. The 2-year follow-up compression ratio was better in patients with even distribution of injected cement (group 2 and 3) than group 1. However, it was not statistically insignificant (p>0.05). The follow-up kyphotic angle was more aggravated in the group 1 than in the other groups (p<0.05). Conclusion Our study showed that vertebroplasty had a beneficial effect on pain relief, particularly in the immediate postoperative stage. The augmented spine tended to be more stable in the cases with increased amount and more even distribution of injected cement. PMID:25983842

  1. Scenario Generation Using Differential Scenario Information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Makino, Masayuki; Ohnishi, Atsushi

    A method of generating scenarios using differential scenaro information is presented. Behaviors of normal scenarios of similar purpose are quite similar each other, while actors and data in scenarios are different among these scenarios. We derive the differential information between them and apply the differential information to generate new alternative/exceptional scenarios. Our method will be illustrated with examples. This paper describes (1) a language for describing scenarios based on a simple case grammar of actions, (2) introduction of the differential scenario, and (3) method and examples of scenario generation using the differential scenario.

  2. From provocative narrative scenarios to quantitative biophysical model results: Simulating plausible futures to 2070 in an urbanizing agricultural watershed in Wisconsin, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Booth, E.; Chen, X.; Motew, M.; Qiu, J.; Zipper, S. C.; Carpenter, S. R.; Kucharik, C. J.; Steven, L. I.

    2015-12-01

    Scenario analysis is a powerful tool for envisioning future social-ecological change and its consequences on human well-being. Scenarios that integrate qualitative storylines and quantitative biophysical models can create a vivid picture of these potential futures but the integration process is not straightforward. We present - using the Yahara Watershed in southern Wisconsin (USA) as a case study - a method for developing quantitative inputs (climate, land use/cover, and land management) to drive a biophysical modeling suite based on four provocative and contrasting narrative scenarios that describe plausible futures of the watershed to 2070. The modeling suite consists of an agroecosystem model (AgroIBIS-VSF), hydrologic routing model (THMB), and empirical lake water quality model and estimates several biophysical indicators to evaluate the watershed system under each scenario. These indicators include water supply, lake flooding, agricultural production, and lake water quality. Climate (daily precipitation and air temperature) for each scenario was determined using statistics from 210 different downscaled future climate projections for two 20-year time periods (2046-2065 and 2081-2100) and modified using a stochastic weather generator to allow flexibility for matching specific climate events within the scenario narratives. Land use/cover for each scenario was determined first by quantifying changes in areal extent every decade for 15 categories at the watershed scale to be consistent with the storyline events and theme. Next, these changes were spatially distributed using a rule-based framework based on land suitability metrics that determine transition probabilities. Finally, agricultural inputs including manure and fertilizer application rates were determined for each scenario based on the prevalence of livestock, water quality regulations, and technological innovations. Each scenario is compared using model inputs (maps and time-series of land use/cover and

  3. Negative symptom improvement during cognitive rehabilitation: results from a 2-year trial of Cognitive Enhancement Therapy.

    PubMed

    Eack, Shaun M; Mesholam-Gately, Raquelle I; Greenwald, Deborah P; Hogarty, Susan S; Keshavan, Matcheri S

    2013-08-30

    Cognitive rehabilitation has shown beneficial effects on cognition in patients with schizophrenia, which may also help to improve negative symptoms due to overlapping pathophysiology between these two domains. To better understand the possible relationship between these areas, we conducted an exploratory analysis of the effects of Cognitive Enhancement Therapy (CET) on negative symptoms. Early course schizophrenia outpatients (n=58) were randomized to 2 years of CET or an Enriched Supportive Therapy (EST) control condition. Results revealed significant and medium-sized (d=0.61) differential improvements favoring CET in overall negative symptoms, particularly social withdrawal, affective flattening, and motor retardation. Neurocognitive improvement was associated with reduced negative symptoms in CET, but not EST patients. No relationships were observed between improvements in emotion processing aspects of social cognition, as measured by the Mayer-Salovey-Caruso Emotional Intelligence Test, and negative symptoms. CET represents an effective cognitive rehabilitation intervention for schizophrenia that may also have benefits to negative symptoms. Future studies specifically designed to examine negative symptoms during the course of cognitive rehabilitation are needed.

  4. Candu 6 severe core damage accident consequence analysis for steam generator tube rupture scenario using MAAP4-CANDU V4.0.5A: preliminary results

    SciTech Connect

    Petoukhov, S.M.; Awadh, B.; Mathew, P.M.

    2006-07-01

    This paper describes the preliminary results of the consequence analysis for a generic AECL CANDU 6 station, when it undergoes a postulated, low probability Steam Generator multiple Tube Rupture (SGTR) severe accident with assumed unavailability of several critical plant safety systems. The Modular Accident Analysis Program for CANDU (MAAP4-CANDU) code was used for this analysis. The SGTR accident is assumed to begin with the guillotine rupture of 10 steam generator tubes in one steam generator in Primary Heat Transport System (PHTS) loop 1. For the reference case, the following systems were assumed unavailable: moderator and shield cooling, emergency core cooling, crash cool-down, and main and auxiliary feed water. Two additional cases were analyzed, one with the crash cool-down system available, and another with the crash cool-down and the auxiliary feed water systems available. The three scenarios considered in this study show that most of the initial fission product inventory would be retained within the containment by various fission product retention mechanisms. For the case where the crash cool-down system was credited but the auxiliary feed water systems were not credited, the total mass of volatile fission products released to the environment including stable and radioactive isotopes was about four times more than in the reference case, because fission products could be released directly from the PHTS to the environment through the Main Steam Safety Valves (MSSVs), bypassing the containment. For the case where the crash cool-down and auxiliary feed water systems were credited, the volatile fission product release to the environment was insignificant, because the fission product release was substantially mitigated by scrubbing in the water pool in the secondary side of the steam generator (SG). (authors)

  5. Dominant and Recessive Forms of Fibrochondrogenesis Resulting from Mutations at a Second Locus, COL11A2

    PubMed Central

    Tompson, Stuart W.; Faqeih, Eissa Ali; Ala-Kokko, Leena; Hecht, Jacqueline T.; Miki, Rika; Funari, Tara; Funari, Vincent A.; Nevarez, Lisette; Krakow, Deborah; Cohn, Daniel H.

    2011-01-01

    Fibrochondrogenesis is a severe, recessively inherited skeletal dysplasia shown to result from mutations in the gene encoding the proα1(XI) chain of type XI collagen, COL11A1. The first of two cases reported here was the affected offspring of first cousins and sequence analysis excluded mutations in COL11A1. Consequently, whole-genome SNP genotyping was performed to identify blocks of homozygosity, identical-by-descent, wherein the disease locus would reside. COL11A1 was not within a region of homozygosity, further excluding it as the disease locus, but the gene encoding the proα2(XI) chain of type XI collagen, COL11A2, was located within a large region of homozygosity. Sequence analysis identified homozygosity for a splice donor mutation in intron 18. Exon trapping demonstrated that the mutation resulted in skipping of exon 18 and predicted deletion of 18 amino acids from the triple helical domain of the protein. In the second case, heterozygosity for a de novo 9 bp deletion in exon 40 of COL11A2 was identified, indicating that there are autosomal dominant forms of fibrochondrogenesis. These findings thus demonstrate that fibrochondrogenesis can result from either recessively- or dominantly-inherited mutations in COL11A2. PMID:22246659

  6. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Porter, K.; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Borrero, J.; Bwarie, J.; Dykstra, D.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Long, K.; Lynett, P.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, Carl E.; Perry, S.; Plumlee, G.; Real, C.; Ritchie, L.; Scawthorn, C.; Thio, H.K.; Wein, Anne; Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R.; Wood, Nathan J.; Ostbo, Bruce I.; Oates, Don

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California (as well as the west coast of the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii) for the purpose of informing planning and mitigation decisions by a variety of stakeholders. The scenario begins with an Mw 9.1 earthquake off the Alaska Peninsula. With Pacific basin-wide modeling, we estimate up to 5m waves and 10 m/sec currents would strike California 5 hours later. In marinas and harbors, 13,000 small boats are damaged or sunk (1 in 3) at a cost of $350 million, causing navigation and environmental problems. Damage in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amount to $110 million, half of it water damage to vehicles and containerized cargo. Flooding of coastal communities affects 1800 city blocks, resulting in $640 million in damage. The tsunami damages 12 bridge abutments and 16 lane-miles of coastal roadway, costing $85 million to repair. Fire and business interruption losses will substantially add to direct losses. Flooding affects 170,000 residents and workers. A wide range of environmental impacts could occur. An extensive public education and outreach program is underway, as well as an evaluation of the overall effort.

  7. Harmonization of Land-Use Scenarios for the Period 1500-2100: 600 Years of Global Gridded Annual Land-Use Transitions, Wood Harvest, and Resulting Secondary Lands

    SciTech Connect

    Hurtt, George; Chini, Louise Parsons; Frolking, Steve; Betts, Richard; Feddema, Johannes; Fischer, Gavin M.; Fisk, J.P.; Hibbard, Kathleen A.; Houghton, R. A.; Janetos, Anthony C.; Jones, C.; Kindermann, G.; Kinoshita, Tsuguki; Goldeweijk, Kees K.; Riahi, Keywan; Shevliakova, Elena; Smith, Steven J.; Stehfest, Eike; Thomson, Allison M.; Thornton, P.; Van Vuuren, Detlef; Wang, Y.

    2011-08-08

    In preparation for the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the international community is developing new advanced Earth System Models (ESM) to assess the combined effects of human activities (e.g. land use and fossil fuel emissions) on the carbon-climate system. In addition, four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios of the future (2005-2100) are being provided by four Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) teams to be used as input to the ESMs for future carbon-climate projections (Moss et al., 2010). The diversity of approaches and requirements among IAMs and ESMs for tracking land-use change, along with the dependence of model projections on land-use history, presents a challenge for effectively passing data between these communities and for smoothly transitioning from the historical estimates to future projections. Here, a harmonized set of land-use scenarios are presented that smoothly connects historical reconstructions of land use with future projections, in the format required by ESMs.

  8. [Regional simulation of rice yield change under two emission scenarios of greenhouse gases].

    PubMed

    Xiong, Wei; Xu, Yinlong; Lin, Erda; Lu, Zhiguang

    2005-01-01

    Based on the newest emission scenarios of SO2 and greenhouse gases, i. e., the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios, and by using RCM (Regional Climate Model)-PRECIS and CERES-Rice model, this paper simulated the rice yield change in 2080 at 50 x 50 km scale. The results showed that there was a great range of yield change across whole China. The yield would increase along the Changjiang River and in South China, and decrease in North and Northeast China. Because of the direct effect of CO2 on rice growth, the SRES A2 scenario would be more positive to the increase of rice yield than B2. In 2080, the total rice yield in whole China would increase under A2 emission scenario, while decrease under B2 emission scenario.

  9. The MATROSHKA experiment: results and comparison from extravehicular activity (MTR-1) and intravehicular activity (MTR-2A/2B) exposure.

    PubMed

    Berger, Thomas; Bilski, Paweł; Hajek, Michael; Puchalska, Monika; Reitz, Günther

    2013-12-01

    Astronauts working and living in space are exposed to considerably higher doses and different qualities of ionizing radiation than people on Earth. The multilateral MATROSHKA (MTR) experiment, coordinated by the German Aerospace Center, represents the most comprehensive effort to date in radiation protection dosimetry in space using an anthropomorphic upper-torso phantom used for radiotherapy treatment planning. The anthropomorphic upper-torso phantom maps the radiation distribution as a simulated human body installed outside (MTR-1) and inside different compartments (MTR-2A: Pirs; MTR-2B: Zvezda) of the Russian Segment of the International Space Station. Thermoluminescence dosimeters arranged in a 2.54 cm orthogonal grid, at the site of vital organs and on the surface of the phantom allow for visualization of the absorbed dose distribution with superior spatial resolution. These results should help improve the estimation of radiation risks for long-term human space exploration and support benchmarking of radiation transport codes.

  10. Flying into the future: aviation emissions scenarios to 2050.

    PubMed

    Owen, Bethan; Lee, David S; Lim, Ling

    2010-04-01

    This study describes the methodology and results for calculating future global aviation emissions of carbon dioxide and oxides of nitrogen from air traffic under four of the IPCC/SRES (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change/Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) marker scenarios: A1B, A2, B1, and B2. In addition, a mitigation scenario has been calculated for the B1 scenario, requiring rapid and significant technology development and transition. A global model of aircraft movements and emissions (FAST) was used to calculate fuel use and emissions to 2050 with a further outlook to 2100. The aviation emission scenarios presented are designed to interpret the SRES and have been developed to aid in the quantification of the climate change impacts of aviation. Demand projections are made for each scenario, determined by SRES economic growth factors and the SRES storylines. Technology trends are examined in detail and developed for each scenario providing plausible projections for fuel efficiency and emissions control technology appropriate to the individual SRES storylines. The technology trends that are applied are calculated from bottom-up inventory calculations and industry technology trends and targets. Future emissions of carbon dioxide are projected to grow between 2000 and 2050 by a factor in the range of 2.0 and 3.6 depending on the scenario. Emissions of oxides of nitrogen associated with aviation over the same period are projected to grow by between a factor of 1.2 and 2.7. PMID:20225840

  11. Flying into the future: aviation emissions scenarios to 2050.

    PubMed

    Owen, Bethan; Lee, David S; Lim, Ling

    2010-04-01

    This study describes the methodology and results for calculating future global aviation emissions of carbon dioxide and oxides of nitrogen from air traffic under four of the IPCC/SRES (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change/Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) marker scenarios: A1B, A2, B1, and B2. In addition, a mitigation scenario has been calculated for the B1 scenario, requiring rapid and significant technology development and transition. A global model of aircraft movements and emissions (FAST) was used to calculate fuel use and emissions to 2050 with a further outlook to 2100. The aviation emission scenarios presented are designed to interpret the SRES and have been developed to aid in the quantification of the climate change impacts of aviation. Demand projections are made for each scenario, determined by SRES economic growth factors and the SRES storylines. Technology trends are examined in detail and developed for each scenario providing plausible projections for fuel efficiency and emissions control technology appropriate to the individual SRES storylines. The technology trends that are applied are calculated from bottom-up inventory calculations and industry technology trends and targets. Future emissions of carbon dioxide are projected to grow between 2000 and 2050 by a factor in the range of 2.0 and 3.6 depending on the scenario. Emissions of oxides of nitrogen associated with aviation over the same period are projected to grow by between a factor of 1.2 and 2.7.

  12. Columnar modelling of nucleation burst evolution in the convective boundary layer - first results from a feasibility study Part III: Preliminary results on physicochemical model performance using two "clean air mass" reference scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hellmuth, O.

    2006-09-01

    In Paper I of four papers, a revised columnar high-order model to investigate gas-aerosol-turbulence interactions in the convective boundary layer (CBL) was proposed. In Paper II, the model capability to predict first-, second- and third-order moments of meteorological variables in the CBL was demonstrated using available observational data. In the present Paper III, the high-order modelling concept is extended to sulphur and ammonia chemistry as well as to aerosol dynamics. Based on the previous CBL simulation, a feasibility study is performed using two "clean air mass" scenarios with an emission source at the ground but low aerosol background concentration. Such scenarios synoptically correspond to the advection of fresh post-frontal air in an anthropogenically influenced region. The aim is to evaluate the time-height evolution of ultrafine condensation nuclei (UCNs) and to elucidate the interactions between meteorological and physicochemical variables in a CBL column. The scenarios differ in the treatment of new particle formation (NPF), whereas homogeneous nucleation according to the classical nucleation theory (CNT) is considered. The first scenario considers nucleation of a binary system consisting of water vapour and sulphuric acid (H2SO4) vapour, the second one nucleation of a ternary system additionally involving ammonia (NH3). Here, the two synthetic scenarios are discussed in detail, whereas special attention is payed to the role of turbulence in the formation of the typical UCN burst behaviour, that can often be observed in the surface layer. The intercomparison of the two scenarios reveals large differences in the evolution of the UCN number concentration in the surface layer as well as in the time-height cross-sections of first-order moments and double correlation terms. Although in both cases the occurrence of NPF bursts could be simulated, the burst characteristics and genesis of the bursts are completely different. It is demonstrated, that

  13. Diabetes Nurse Case Management and Motivational Interviewing for Change (DYNAMIC): Results of a 2-year Randomized Controlled Pragmatic Trial

    PubMed Central

    Gabbay, Robert A.; Añel-Tiangco, Raquel M.; Dellasega, Cheryl; Mauger, David T.; Adelman, Alan; Van Horn, Deborah H.A.

    2013-01-01

    Objective To determine if the addition of nurse case managers (NCMs) trained in motivational interviewing (MI) to usual care would result in improved outcomes in high risk type 2 diabetes patients. Methods A 2-year randomized controlled pragmatic trial randomized 545 patients to usual care control (n=313) or those who received the intervention (n= 232) with additional practice embedded NCM care, including MI-guided behavior change counseling. NCMs received intensive MI training with ongoing fidelity assessment. Results Systolic BP was better in the intervention group (131±15.9 vs. 135±18.2, p < 0.05). HbA1c, LDL, and diastolic BP improved in both groups: HbA1c (control group 9.1% to 8.0%, intervention group 8.8% to 7.8%), LDL (control group 127 to 100 mg/dL, intervention group 128 to 102 mg/dL), diastolic BP (control group 78 to 74 mm Hg, intervention group 80 to 74 mm Hg). Depression symptom scores were better in the intervention group. The reduction in diabetes-related distress approached statistical significance. Conclusions NCMs and MI improved systolic BP and complications screening. The large decrease in HbA1C and LDL in the control group may have obscured any further intervention effect. Although nurses prompted providers for medication titration, strategies to reduce provider clinical inertia might also be needed. Significant findings of the study In patients with type 2 diabetes, an intervention with nurse case management and motivational interviewing improves systolic blood pressure, depression, and screening for complications. What this study adds First study to look at the benefit of the addition of motivational interviewing to nurse case management in the care of the high-risk adult with type 2 diabetes. Particular attention was given to ensuring fidelity to the motivational interviewing approach. PMID:23368423

  14. Fellow use of medical jargon correlates inversely with patient and observer perceptions of professionalism: results of a rheumatology OSCE (ROSCE) using challenging patient scenarios.

    PubMed

    Berman, Jessica R; Aizer, Juliet; Bass, Anne R; Blanco, Irene; Davidson, Anne; Dwyer, Edward; Fields, Theodore R; Huang, Wei-Ti; Kang, Jane S; Kerr, Leslie D; Krasnokutsky-Samuels, Svetlana; Lazaro, Deana M; Schwartzman-Morris, Julie S; Paget, Stephen A; Pillinger, Michael H

    2016-08-01

    The NYC Rheumatology Objective Structured Clinical Examination (NYC-ROSCE) is held annually to assess fellow competencies. We recently redesigned our OSCE to better assess subspecialty trainee communication skills and professionalism by developing scenarios in which the patients encountered were psychosocially or medically complex. The objective of this study is to identify which types of verbal and non-verbal skills are most important in the perception of professionalism in the patient-physician interaction. The 2012-2013 NYC-ROSCEs included a total of 53 fellows: 55 MD evaluators from 7 NYC rheumatology training programs (Hospital for Special Surgery-Weill Cornell (HSS), SUNY/Downstate, NYU, Einstein, Columbia, Mount Sinai, and North Shore/Long Island Jewish (NSLIJ)), and 55 professional actors/standardized patients participated in 5 stations. Quantitative fellow performance assessments were made on the following: maintaining composure; partnering with the patient; honesty; professionalism; empathy; and accountability. Free-text comments were solicited regarding specific strengths and weaknesses. A total of 53/53 eligible (100 %) fellows were evaluated. MD evaluators rated fellows lower for professionalism than did the standardized patients (6.8 ± 0.6 vs. 7.4 ± 0.8, p = 0.05), suggesting that physicians and patients view professionalism somewhat differently. Fellow self-evaluations for professionalism (6.6 ± 1.2) were concordant with those of the MD evaluators. Ratings of empathy by fellows themselves (6.6 ± 1.0), MD evaluators (6.6 ± 0.7), and standardized patients (6.6 ± 1.1) agreed closely. Jargon use, frequently cited by evaluators, showed a moderate association with lower professionalism ratings by both MD evaluators and patients. Psychosocially challenging patient encounters in the NYC-ROSCE permitted critical assessment of the patient-centered traits contributing to impressions of professionalism and indicate that

  15. Emission-Line Galaxies from the PEARS Hubble Ultra Deep Field: A 2-D Detection Method and First Results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gardner, J. P.; Straughn, Amber N.; Meurer, Gerhardt R.; Pirzkal, Norbert; Cohen, Seth H.; Malhotra, Sangeeta; Rhoads, james; Windhorst, Rogier A.; Gardner, Jonathan P.; Hathi, Nimish P.; Xu, Chun; Gronwall, Caryl; Koekemoer, Anton M.; Walsh, Jeremy; diSeregoAlighieri, Sperello

    2007-01-01

    The Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Advanced Camera for Surveys (ACS) grism PEARS (Probing Evolution And Reionization Spectroscopically) survey provides a large dataset of low-resolution spectra from thousands of galaxies in the GOODS North and South fields. One important subset of objects in these data are emission-line galaxies (ELGs), and we have investigated several different methods aimed at systematically selecting these galaxies. Here we present a new methodology and results of a search for these ELGs in the PEARS observations of the Hubble Ultra Deep Field (HUDF) using a 2D detection method that utilizes the observation that many emission lines originate from clumpy knots within galaxies. This 2D line-finding method proves to be useful in detecting emission lines from compact knots within galaxies that might not otherwise be detected using more traditional 1D line-finding techniques. We find in total 96 emission lines in the HUDF, originating from 81 distinct "knots" within 63 individual galaxies. We find in general that [0 1111 emitters are the most common, comprising 44% of the sample, and on average have high equivalent widths (70% of [0 1111 emitters having rest-frame EW> 100A). There are 12 galaxies with multiple emitting knots; several show evidence of variations in H-alpha flux in the knots, suggesting that the differing star formation properties across a single galaxy can in general be probed at redshifts approximately greater than 0.2 - 0.4. The most prevalent morphologies are large face-on spirals and clumpy interacting systems, many being unique detections owing to the 2D method described here, thus highlighting the strength of this technique.

  16. Progression of fibromyalgia: results from a 2-year observational fibromyalgia and chronic pain study in the US

    PubMed Central

    Adams, Edgar H; McElroy, Heather J; Udall, Margarita; Masters, Elizabeth T; Mann, Rachael M; Schaefer, Caroline P; Cappelleri, Joseph C; Clair, Andrew G; Hopps, Markay; Daniel, Shoshana R; Mease, Philip; Silverman, Stuart L; Staud, Roland

    2016-01-01

    Background A previous fibromyalgia (FM) research reports that 20%–47% of diagnosed patients may not meet the study definition of FM 1–2 years after diagnosis. The aim of this study was to gain a better understanding of the progression of FM in a geographically diverse cohort over a 2-year time period. Methods This cohort study followed 226 subjects recruited online to assess FM and chronic widespread pain (CWP) diagnosis stability over time. At enrollment (baseline), subjects provided informed consent, completed an online questionnaire consisting of the London Fibromyalgia Epidemiology Study Screening Questionnaire to screen for CWP (bilateral pain above/below waist lasting ≥1 week in the past 3 months), visited a site for physician evaluation for FM, and completed a questionnaire with validated patient-reported outcome instruments. Subjects were classified into mutually exclusive groups: FM+CWP+ (screened positive for CWP and received physician diagnosis of FM), FM−CWP+ (screened positive for CWP but did not receive physician diagnosis of FM), and FM−CWP− (screened negative for CWP). Approximately 2 years later (follow-up), subjects were reassessed at the same study site and completed a questionnaire with the same patient-reported outcomes. Results Seventy-six FM+CWP+ subjects completed assessments at both time points; 56 (73.7%) met the FM study definition at follow-up. Twenty subjects no longer met the FM study definition (eleven became FM−CWP− and nine became FM−CWP+). Ten subjects (two from FM−CWP− and eight from FM−CWP+) transitioned into the FM+CWP+ group at follow-up; they reported more tender points and pain interference with sleep and worse physical function at baseline compared with subjects who did not transition to FM+CWP+. Most (76.7%) of the subjects who transitioned into/out of FM+CWP+ experienced changes in CWP, number of positive tender points, or both. Conclusion The results suggest that some FM+CWP+ patients experience

  17. Expression of A2V-mutated Aβ in Caenorhabditis elegans results in oligomer formation and toxicity.

    PubMed

    Diomede, Luisa; Di Fede, Giuseppe; Romeo, Margherita; Bagnati, Renzo; Ghidoni, Roberta; Fiordaliso, Fabio; Salio, Monica; Rossi, Alessandro; Catania, Marcella; Paterlini, Anna; Benussi, Luisa; Bastone, Antonio; Stravalaci, Matteo; Gobbi, Marco; Tagliavini, Fabrizio; Salmona, Mario

    2014-02-01

    Although Alzheimer's disease (AD) is usually sporadic, in a small proportion of cases it is familial and can be linked to mutations in β-amyloid precursor protein (APP). Unlike the other genetic defects, the mutation [alanine-673→valine-673] (A673V) causes the disease only in the homozygous condition with enhanced amyloid β (Aβ) production and aggregation; heterozygous carriers remain unaffected. It is not clear how misfolding and aggregation of Aβ is affected in vivo by this mutation and whether this correlates with its toxic effects. No animal models over-expressing the A673V-APP gene or alanine-2-valine (A2V) mutated human Aβ protein are currently available. Using the invertebrate Caenorhabditis elegans, we generated the first transgenic animal model to express the human Aβ1-40 wild-type (WT) in neurons or possess the A2V mutation (Aβ1-40A2V). Insertion of an Aβ-mutated gene into this nematode reproduced the homozygous state of the human pathology. Functional and biochemical characteristics found in the A2V strain were compared to those of transgenic C. elegans expressing Aβ1-40WT. The expression of both WT and A2V Aβ1-40 specifically reduced the nematode's lifespan, causing behavioral defects and neurotransmission impairment which were worse in A2V worms. Mutant animals were more resistant than WT to paralysis induced by the cholinergic agonist levamisole, indicating that the locomotor defect was specifically linked to postsynaptic dysfunctions. The toxicity caused by the mutated protein was associated with a high propensity to form oligomeric assemblies which accumulate in the neurons, suggesting this to be the central event involved in the postsynaptic damage and early onset of the disease in homozygous human A673V carriers.

  18. Expression of A2V-mutated Aβ in Caenorhabditis elegans results in oligomer formation and toxicity☆

    PubMed Central

    Diomede, Luisa; Di Fede, Giuseppe; Romeo, Margherita; Bagnati, Renzo; Ghidoni, Roberta; Fiordaliso, Fabio; Salio, Monica; Rossi, Alessandro; Catania, Marcella; Paterlini, Anna; Benussi, Luisa; Bastone, Antonio; Stravalaci, Matteo; Gobbi, Marco; Tagliavini, Fabrizio; Salmona, Mario

    2014-01-01

    Although Alzheimer's disease (AD) is usually sporadic, in a small proportion of cases it is familial and can be linked to mutations in β-amyloid precursor protein (APP). Unlike the other genetic defects, the mutation [alanine-673→valine-673] (A673V) causes the disease only in the homozygous condition with enhanced amyloid β (Aβ) production and aggregation; heterozygous carriers remain unaffected. It is not clear how misfolding and aggregation of Aβ is affected in vivo by this mutation and whether this correlates with its toxic effects. No animal models over-expressing the A673V–APP gene or alanine-2-valine (A2V) mutated human Aβ protein are currently available. Using the invertebrate Caenorhabditis elegans, we generated the first transgenic animal model to express the human Aβ1–40 wild-type (WT) in neurons or possess the A2V mutation (Aβ1–40A2V). Insertion of an Aβ-mutated gene into this nematode reproduced the homozygous state of the human pathology. Functional and biochemical characteristics found in the A2V strain were compared to those of transgenic C. elegans expressing Aβ1–40WT. The expression of both WT and A2V Aβ1–40 specifically reduced the nematode's lifespan, causing behavioral defects and neurotransmission impairment which were worse in A2V worms. Mutant animals were more resistant than WT to paralysis induced by the cholinergic agonist levamisole, indicating that the locomotor defect was specifically linked to postsynaptic dysfunctions. The toxicity caused by the mutated protein was associated with a high propensity to form oligomeric assemblies which accumulate in the neurons, suggesting this to be the central event involved in the postsynaptic damage and early onset of the disease in homozygous human A673V carriers. PMID:24184799

  19. Finnish Parental Involvement Ethos, Health Support, Health Education Knowledge and Participation: Results from a 2-Year School Health Intervention

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sormunen, Marjorita; Tossavainen, Kerttu; Turunen, Hannele

    2013-01-01

    A 2-year, participatory action research school health study focused on developing components for home-school partnerships to support children's health learning process. Two intervention schools implemented strengthened health and collaboration-orientated activities; two control schools followed the national core curriculum without extracurricular…

  20. Moon manned mission scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Angelis, G.; Tripathi, R. K.; Wilson, J. W.; Clowdsley, M. S.; Nealy, J. E.; Badavi, F. F.

    An analysis is performed on the radiation environment found around and on the surface of the Moon, and applied to different possible lunar mission scenarios. An optimization technique has been used to obtain mission scenarios minimizing the astronaut radiation exposure and at the same time controlling the effect of shielding, in terms of mass addition and material choice, as a mission cost driver. The scenarios are evaluated from the point of view of radiation safety with the radiation protection quantities recommended for LEO scenarios.

  1. Downscaling climate change scenarios in an urban land use change model.

    PubMed

    Solecki, William D; Oliveri, Charles

    2004-08-01

    The objective of this paper is to describe the process through which climate change scenarios were downscaled in an urban land use model and the results of this experimentation. The land use models (Urban Growth Model [UGM] and the Land Cover Deltatron Model [LCDM]) utilized in the project are part of the SLEUTH program which uses a probabilistic cellular automata protocol. The land use change scenario experiments were developed for the 31-county New York Metropolitan Region (NYMR) of the US Mid-Atlantic Region. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), regional greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios) were used to define the narrative scenario conditions of future land use change. The specific research objectives of the land use modeling work involving the SLEUTH program were threefold: (1) Define the projected conversion probabilities and the amount of rural-to-urban land use change for the NYMR as derived by the UGM and LCDM for the years 2020 and 2050, as defined by the pattern of growth for the years 1960-1990; (2) Down-scale the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios as a narrative that could be translated into alternative growth projections; and, (3) Create two alternative future growth scenarios: A2 scenario which will be associated with more rapid land conversion than found in initial projections, and a B2 scenario which will be associated with a slower level of land conversion. The results of the modeling experiments successfully illustrate the spectrum of possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years 2020 and 2050. The application of these results into the broader scale climate and health impact study is discussed, as is the general role of land use/land cover change models in climate change studies and associated environmental management strategies.

  2. A diastrophic dysplasia sulfate transporter (SLC26A2) mutant mouse: morphological and biochemical characterization of the resulting chondrodysplasia phenotype.

    PubMed

    Forlino, Antonella; Piazza, Rocco; Tiveron, Cecilia; Della Torre, Sara; Tatangelo, Laura; Bonafè, Luisa; Gualeni, Benedetta; Romano, Assunta; Pecora, Fabio; Superti-Furga, Andrea; Cetta, Giuseppe; Rossi, Antonio

    2005-03-15

    Mutations in the diastrophic dysplasia sulfate transporter (DTDST or SLC26A2) cause a family of recessively inherited chondrodysplasias including, in order of decreasing severity, achondrogenesis 1B, atelosteogenesis 2, diastrophic dysplasia (DTD) and recessive multiple epiphyseal dysplasia. The gene encodes a widely distributed sulfate/chloride antiporter of the cell membrane whose function is crucial for the uptake of inorganic sulfate, which is needed for proteoglycan sulfation. To provide new insights in the pathogenetic mechanisms leading to skeletal and connective tissue dysplasia and to obtain an in vivo model for therapeutic approaches to DTD, we generated a Dtdst knock-in mouse with a partial loss of function of the sulfate transporter. In addition, the intronic neomycine cassette in the mutant allele contributed to the hypomorphic phenotype by inducing abnormal splicing. Homozygous mutant mice were characterized by growth retardation, skeletal dysplasia and joint contractures, thereby recapitulating essential aspects of the DTD phenotype in man. The skeletal phenotype included reduced toluidine blue staining of cartilage, chondrocytes of irregular size, delay in the formation of the secondary ossification center and osteoporosis of long bones. Impaired sulfate uptake was demonstrated in chondrocytes, osteoblasts and fibroblasts. In spite of the generalized nature of the sulfate uptake defect, significant proteoglycan undersulfation was detected only in cartilage. Chondrocyte proliferation and apoptosis studies suggested that reduced proliferation and/or lack of terminal chondrocyte differentiation might contribute to reduced bone growth. The similarity with human DTD makes this mouse strain a useful model to explore pathogenetic and therapeutic aspects of DTDST-related disorders. PMID:15703192

  3. Comparative Results from a CFD Challenge Over a 2D Three-Element High-Lift Airfoil

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Klausmeyer, Steven M.; Lin, John C.

    1997-01-01

    A high-lift workshop was held in May of 1993 at NASA Langley Research Center. A major part of the workshop centered on a blind test of various computational fluid dynamics (CFD) methods in which the flow about a two- dimensional (2D) three-element airfoil was computed without prior knowledge of the experimental data. The results of this 'blind' test revealed: (1) The Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) methods generally showed less variability among codes than did potential/Euler solvers coupled with boundary-layer solution techniques. However, some of the coupled methods still provided excellent predictions. (2) Drag prediction using coupled methods agreed more closely with experiment than the RANS methods. Lift was more accurately predicted than drag for both methods. (3) The CFD methods did well in predicting lift and drag changes due to changes in Reynolds number, however, they did not perform as well when predicting lift and drag increments due to changing flap gap, (4) Pressures and skin friction compared favorably with experiment for most of the codes. (5) There was a large variability in most of the velocity profile predictions. Computational results predict a stronger siat wake than measured suggesting a missing component in turbulence modeling, perhaps curvature effects.

  4. Sustained efficacy of risedronate in men with primary and secondary osteoporosis: results of a 2-year study.

    PubMed

    Ringe, Johann D; Farahmand, Parvis; Faber, Herbert; Dorst, Alfred

    2009-01-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the effect of treatment with risedronate 5 mg daily relative to control in men with primary or secondary osteoporosis over 2 years. Osteoporosis is a common condition in men that can have serious clinical consequences. In an earlier interim report, we found that 1 year of risedronate therapy resulted in significant increases in bone mineral density (BMD) and a significant reduction in vertebral fractures compared to control in men with osteoporosis. We conducted an open-label, prospective, match-control trial on men with primary or secondary osteoporosis in a single center, outpatient setting. Men with primary or secondary osteoporosis, as defined by a baseline lumbar spine BMD T-score < or = -2.5 and a baseline femoral neck BMD T-score < or = 2.0, were eligible for this study. Patients who had been treated with bisphosphonates or fluoride within the last 12 months were excluded. A total of 316 men were randomized to risedronate (n = 158) or control (n = 158). Patients were stratified by the presence of prevalent vertebral fractures at baseline and case by case allocated to either daily treatment with risedronate 5 mg daily plus calcium (1,000 mg) and vitamin D (800 IU) or to a control group (daily alfacalcidol (1 microg) plus calcium (500 mg) for those with prevalent vertebral fractures; daily vitamin D (800 IU) plus calcium (1,200 mg) for those without previous vertebral fractures). Primary study end points were identified prior to study initiation as the incidence of new vertebral fractures and changes in BMD at the lumbar spine, femoral neck, and total hip. Other end points included incidence of nonvertebral fractures and change in body height and back pain. Compared to control, the incidence of new vertebral fractures was significantly reduced in the risedronate 5 mg daily group at 2 years [14/152 (9.2%) for risedronate vs. 35/148 (23.6%) for control (61% risk reduction; P = 0.0026)]. Treatment with risedronate 5 mg daily

  5. Mars base buildup scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Blacic, J.D.

    1985-01-01

    Two surface base build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second scenario, early development of an infrastructure to exploite the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first, but once begun develops rapidly aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station.

  6. Mars base buildup scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Blacic, J. D.

    1986-01-01

    Two Mars surface based build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second senario, Earth development of an infrastructure to exploit the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first in this scenario relative to the first, but once begun develops rapidly, aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station.

  7. GLOBAL ALTERNATIVE FUTURE SCENARIOS

    EPA Science Inventory

    One way to examine possible future outcomes for environmental protection is through the development and analysis of alternative future scenarios. This type of assessment postulates two or more different paths that social and environmental development might take, using correspond...

  8. Web Based Tool for Mission Operations Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boyles, Carole A.; Bindschadler, Duane L.

    2008-01-01

    A conventional practice for spaceflight projects is to document scenarios in a monolithic Operations Concept document. Such documents can be hundreds of pages long and may require laborious updates. Software development practice utilizes scenarios in the form of smaller, individual use cases, which are often structured and managed using UML. We have developed a process and a web-based scenario tool that utilizes a similar philosophy of smaller, more compact scenarios (but avoids the formality of UML). The need for a scenario process and tool became apparent during the authors' work on a large astrophysics mission. It was noted that every phase of the Mission (e.g., formulation, design, verification and validation, and operations) looked back to scenarios to assess completeness of requirements and design. It was also noted that terminology needed to be clarified and structured to assure communication across all levels of the project. Attempts to manage, communicate, and evolve scenarios at all levels of a project using conventional tools (e.g., Excel) and methods (Scenario Working Group meetings) were not effective given limitations on budget and staffing. The objective of this paper is to document the scenario process and tool created to offer projects a low-cost capability to create, communicate, manage, and evolve scenarios throughout project development. The process and tool have the further benefit of allowing the association of requirements with particular scenarios, establishing and viewing relationships between higher- and lower-level scenarios, and the ability to place all scenarios in a shared context. The resulting structured set of scenarios is widely visible (using a web browser), easily updated, and can be searched according to various criteria including the level (e.g., Project, System, and Team) and Mission Phase. Scenarios are maintained in a web-accessible environment that provides a structured set of scenario fields and allows for maximum

  9. EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

    2008-12-01

    worked to bring the experience generated from over four decades of scenario development in other issue domains, including energy and security, to bear on environmental scenarios, and to bring into dialogue scenario practitioners, both producers and users, with social science scholars. The set of contributions to this focus issue of Environmental Research Letters arose out of this workshop and collectively examines key challenges facing the scenario community, synthesizes lessons, and offers recommendations for new research and practice in this field. One theme that emerged in many of the discussions at the workshop revolved around the distinction between two broad perspectives on the goals of scenario exercises: scenarios as products and scenarios as processes. Most global environmental change scenario exercises are product-oriented; the content of the scenarios developed is the main goal of many participants and those who commission or organize the scenario development process. Typically, what is of most interest are the environmental outcomes produced, how they relate to the various factors driving them, and what the results tell us about the prospects for future environmental change, for impacts, and for mitigation. A product-oriented perspective assumes that once produced, scenario products have lives of their own, divorced from the processes that generated them and able to serve multiple, often unspecified purposes. Thus, it is often assumed that the scenario products can be 'taken up' by a variety of users in a variety of fora. A contrasting scenario approach is process-oriented and self-consciously privileges the process of scenario development as the primary goal, for example as a means to motivate organizational learning, find commonalities across different perspectives, achieve consensus on goals, or come to a shared understanding of challenges. Focusing on scenarios as processes highlights the social contexts in which scenarios are created and used. Process

  10. BCube Ocean Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santoro, Mattia; Schofield, Oscar; Pearlman, Jay; Nativi, Stefano

    2015-04-01

    To address complex Earth system issues such as climate change and water resources, geoscientists must work across disciplinary boundaries; this requires them to access data outside of their fields. Scientists are being called upon to find, access, and use diverse and voluminous data types that are described with semantics. Within the framework of the NSF EarthCube programme, the BCube project (A Broker Framework for Next Generation Geoscience) is addressing the need for effective and efficient multi-disciplinary collaboration and interoperability through the advancement of brokering technologies. BCube develops science scenarios as key elements in providing an environment for demonstrating capabilities, benefits, and challenges of the developed e-infrastructure. The initial focus is on hydrology, oceans, polar and weather, with the intent to make the technology applicable and available to all the geosciences. This presentation focuses on the BCube ocean scenario. The purpose of this scenario is to increase the understanding of the ocean dynamics through incorporation of a wide range of in-situ and satellite data into ocean models using net primary productivity as the initial variable. The science scenario aims to identify spatial and temporal domains in ocean models, and key ecological variables. Field data sets and remote observations data sets from distributed and heterogeneous systems are accessed through the broker and will be incorporated into the models. In this work we will present the achievements in the development of the BCube ocean scenario.

  11. Scenarios for gluino coannihilation

    DOE PAGES

    Ellis, John; Evans, Jason L.; Luo, Feng; Olive, Keith A.

    2016-02-11

    In this article, we study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parametermore » space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in particular, as well as the appearance of other dark matter (co)annihilation processes. Nevertheless, LSP masses mX ≲ 8TeV with the correct dark matter density are quite possible. In the case of pure gravity mediation with additional vector-like supermultiplets, changes to the anomaly-mediated gluino mass and the threshold effects associated with these states can make the gluino almost degenerate with the LSP, and we find a similar upper bound.« less

  12. Results.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zemsky, Robert; Shaman, Susan; Shapiro, Daniel B.

    2001-01-01

    Describes the Collegiate Results Instrument (CRI), which measures a range of collegiate outcomes for alumni 6 years after graduation. The CRI was designed to target alumni from institutions across market segments and assess their values, abilities, work skills, occupations, and pursuit of lifelong learning. (EV)

  13. Modeling future land use scenarios in South Korea: applying the IPCC special report on emissions scenarios and the SLEUTH model on a local scale.

    PubMed

    Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

    2015-05-01

    This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of 'best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

  14. Modeling Future Land Use Scenarios in South Korea: Applying the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and the SLEUTH Model on a Local Scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Han, Haejin; Hwang, YunSeop; Ha, Sung Ryong; Kim, Byung Sik

    2015-05-01

    This study developed three scenarios of future land use/land cover on a local level for the Kyung-An River Basin and its vicinity in South Korea at a 30-m resolution based on the two scenario families of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B1, as well as a business-as-usual scenario. The IPCC SRES A2 and B1 were used to define future local development patterns and associated land use change. We quantified the population-driven demand for urban land use for each qualitative storyline and allocated the urban demand in geographic space using the SLEUTH model. The model results demonstrate the possible land use/land cover change scenarios for the years from 2000 to 2070 by examining the broad narrative of each SRES within the context of a local setting, such as the Kyoungan River Basin, constructing narratives of local development shifts and modeling a set of `best guess' approximations of the future land use conditions in the study area. This study found substantial differences in demands and patterns of land use changes among the scenarios, indicating compact development patterns under the SRES B1 compared to the rapid and dispersed development under the SRES A2.

  15. The changing nutrition scenario

    PubMed Central

    Gopalan, C.

    2013-01-01

    The past seven decades have seen remarkable shifts in the nutritional scenario in India. Even up to the 1950s severe forms of malnutrition such as kwashiorkar and pellagra were endemic. As nutritionists were finding home-grown and common-sense solutions for these widespread problems, the population was burgeoning and food was scarce. The threat of widespread household food insecurity and chronic undernutrition was very real. Then came the Green Revolution. Shortages of food grains disappeared within less than a decade and India became self-sufficient in food grain production. But more insidious problems arising from this revolution were looming, and cropping patterns giving low priority to coarse grains and pulses, and monocropping led to depletion of soil nutrients and ‘Green Revolution fatigue’. With improved household food security and better access to health care, clinical manifestations of severe malnutrition virtually disappeared. But the decline in chronic undernutrition and “hidden hunger” from micronutrient deficiencies was slow. On the cusp of the new century, an added factor appeared on the nutritional scene in India. With steady urban migration, upward mobility out of poverty, and an increasingly sedentary lifestyle because of improvements in technology and transport, obesity rates began to increase, resulting in a dual burden. Measured in terms of its performance in meeting its Millennium Development Goals, India has fallen short. Despite its continuing high levels of poverty and illiteracy, India has a huge demographic potential in the form of a young population. This advantage must be leveraged by investing in nutrition education, household access to nutritious diets, sanitary environment and a health-promoting lifestyle. This requires co-operation from all the stakeholders, including governments, non government organizations, scientists and the people at large. PMID:24135189

  16. Biomass Scenario Model

    SciTech Connect

    2015-09-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique, carefully validated, state-of-the-art dynamic model of the domestic biofuels supply chain which explicitly focuses on policy issues, their feasibility, and potential side effects. It integrates resource availability, physical/technological/economic constraints, behavior, and policy. The model uses a system dynamics simulation (not optimization) to model dynamic interactions across the supply chain.

  17. Scripting Scenarios for the Human Patient Simulator

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bacal, Kira; Miller, Robert; Doerr, Harold

    2004-01-01

    The Human Patient Simulator (HPS) is particularly useful in providing scenario-based learning which can be tailored to fit specific scenarios and which can be modified in realtime to enhance the teaching environment. Scripting these scenarios so as to maximize learning requires certain skills, in order to ensure that a change in student performance, understanding, critical thinking, and/or communication skills results. Methods: A "good" scenario can be defined in terms of applicability, learning opportunities, student interest, and clearly associated metrics. Obstacles to such a scenario include a lack of understanding of the applicable environment by the scenario author(s), a desire (common among novices) to cover too many topics, failure to define learning objectives, mutually exclusive or confusing learning objectives, unskilled instructors, poor preparation , disorganized approach, or an inappropriate teaching philosophy (such as "trial by fire" or education through humiliation). Results: Descriptions of several successful teaching programs, used in the military, civilian, and NASA medical environments , will be provided, along with sample scenarios. Discussion: Simulator-based lessons have proven to be a time- and cost-efficient manner by which to educate medical personnel. Particularly when training for medical care in austere environments (pre-hospital, aeromedical transport, International Space Station, military operations), the HPS can enhance the learning experience.

  18. Spent fuel receipt scenarios study

    SciTech Connect

    Ballou, L.B.; Montan, D.N.; Revelli, M.A.

    1990-09-01

    This study reports on the results of an assignment from the DOE Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management to evaluate of the effects of different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel on the potential performance of the waste packages in the proposed Yucca Mountain high-level waste repository. The initial evaluations were performed and an interim letter report was prepared during the fall of 1988. Subsequently, the scope of work was expanded and additional analyses were conducted in 1989. This report combines the results of the two phases of the activity. This study is a part of a broader effort to investigate the options available to the DOE and the nuclear utilities for selection of spent fuel for acceptance into the Federal Waste Management System for disposal. Each major element of the system has evaluated the effects of various options on its own operations, with the objective of providing the basis for performing system-wide trade-offs and determining an optimum acceptance scenario. Therefore, this study considers different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel by the repository only from the narrow perspective of their effect on the very-near-field temperatures in the repository following permanent closure. This report is organized into three main sections. The balance of this section is devoted to a statement of the study objective, a summary of the assumptions. The second section of the report contains a discussion of the major elements of the study. The third section summarizes the results of the study and draws some conclusions from them. The appendices include copies of the waste acceptance schedule and the existing and projected spent fuel inventory that were used in the study. 10 refs., 27 figs.

  19. The minimal scenario of leptogenesis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blanchet, Steve; Di Bari, Pasquale

    2012-12-01

    We review the main features and results of thermal leptogenesis within the type I seesaw mechanism, the minimal extension of the Standard Model explaining neutrino masses and mixing. After presenting the simplest approach, the vanilla scenario, we discuss various important developments of recent years, such as the inclusion of lepton and heavy neutrino flavour effects, a description beyond a hierarchical heavy neutrino mass spectrum and an improved kinetic description within the density matrix and the closed-time-path formalisms. We also discuss how leptogenesis can ultimately represent an important phenomenological tool to test the seesaw mechanism and the underlying model of new physics.

  20. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

    SciTech Connect

    Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

    2014-04-01

    Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

  1. Viral hepatitis: Indian scenario.

    PubMed

    Satsangi, Sandeep; Chawla, Yogesh K

    2016-07-01

    Viral hepatitis is a cause for major health care burden in India and is now equated as a threat comparable to the "big three" communicable diseases - HIV/AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis. Hepatitis A virus and Hepatitis E virus are predominantly enterically transmitted pathogens and are responsible to cause both sporadic infections and epidemics of acute viral hepatitis. Hepatitis B virus and Hepatitis C virus are predominantly spread via parenteral route and are notorious to cause chronic hepatitis which can lead to grave complications including cirrhosis of liver and hepatocellular carcinoma. Around 400 million people all over the world suffer from chronic hepatitis and the Asia-Pacific region constitutes the epicentre of this epidemic. The present article would aim to cover the basic virologic aspects of these viruses and highlight the present scenario of viral hepatitis in India. PMID:27546957

  2. EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

    2008-12-01

    worked to bring the experience generated from over four decades of scenario development in other issue domains, including energy and security, to bear on environmental scenarios, and to bring into dialogue scenario practitioners, both producers and users, with social science scholars. The set of contributions to this focus issue of Environmental Research Letters arose out of this workshop and collectively examines key challenges facing the scenario community, synthesizes lessons, and offers recommendations for new research and practice in this field. One theme that emerged in many of the discussions at the workshop revolved around the distinction between two broad perspectives on the goals of scenario exercises: scenarios as products and scenarios as processes. Most global environmental change scenario exercises are product-oriented; the content of the scenarios developed is the main goal of many participants and those who commission or organize the scenario development process. Typically, what is of most interest are the environmental outcomes produced, how they relate to the various factors driving them, and what the results tell us about the prospects for future environmental change, for impacts, and for mitigation. A product-oriented perspective assumes that once produced, scenario products have lives of their own, divorced from the processes that generated them and able to serve multiple, often unspecified purposes. Thus, it is often assumed that the scenario products can be 'taken up' by a variety of users in a variety of fora. A contrasting scenario approach is process-oriented and self-consciously privileges the process of scenario development as the primary goal, for example as a means to motivate organizational learning, find commonalities across different perspectives, achieve consensus on goals, or come to a shared understanding of challenges. Focusing on scenarios as processes highlights the social contexts in which scenarios are created and used. Process

  3. What is the difference between a 2, 3, 4, or 5 °C world and how good are we at telling this difference? Results from ISI-MIP the first Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frieler, K.; Huber, V.; Piontek, F.; Schewe, J.; Serdeczny, O.; Warszawski, L.

    2012-12-01

    The Inter-sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) aims to synthesize the state-of-the-art knowledge of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming. Over 25 climate impact modelling teams from around the world, working within the agriculture, water, biomes, infrastructure and health sectors, are collaborating to find answers to the question "What is the difference between a 2, 3, 4, or 5 °C world and how good are we at telling this difference?". The analysis is based on common, bias-corrected climate projections, and socio-economic pathways. The first, fast-tracked phase of the ISI-MIP has a focus on global impact models. The project's experimental design is formulated to distinguish the uncertainty introduced by the impact models themselves, from the inherent uncertainty in the climate projections and the variety of plausible socio-economic futures. Novel metrics, developed to emphasize societal impacts, will be used to identify regional 'hot-spots' of climate change impacts, as well as to quantify the cross-sectoral impact of the increasing frequency of extreme events in future climates. We present here first results from the Fast-Track phase of the project covering impact simulations in the biomes, agriculture and water sectors, in which the societal impacts of climate change are quantified for different levels of global warming. We also discuss the design of the scenario set-up and impact indicators chosen to suit the unique cross-sectoral, multi-model nature of the project.

  4. Scenarios for coastal vulnerability assessment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nicholls, Robert J.; Woodroffe, Colin D.; Burkett, Virginia; Hay, John; Wong, Poh Poh; Nurse, Leonard; Wolanski, Eric; McLusky, Donald S.

    2011-01-01

    Coastal vulnerability assessments tend to focus mainly on climate change and especially on sea-level rise. Assessment of the influence of nonclimatic environmental change or socioeconomic change is less well developed and these drivers are often completely ignored. Given that the most profound coastal changes of the twentieth century due to nonclimate drivers are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission. It may result in not only overstating the importance of climate change but also overlooking significant interactions of climate change and other drivers. To support the development of policies relating to climate change and coastal management, integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the effects of all the relevant drivers. This chapter explores the development of scenarios (or "plausible futures") of relevant climate and nonclimate drivers that can be used for coastal analysis, with an emphasis on the nonclimate drivers. It shows the importance of analyzing the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise in a broader context of coastal change and all its drivers. This will improve the analysis of impacts, key vulnerabilities, and adaptation needs and, hence, inform climate and coastal policy. Stakeholder engagement is important in the development of scenarios, and the underlying assumptions need to be explicit, transparent, and open to scientific debate concerning their uncertainties/realism and likelihood.

  5. Radiation Detection Computational Benchmark Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Shaver, Mark W.; Casella, Andrew M.; Wittman, Richard S.; McDonald, Ben S.

    2013-09-24

    Modeling forms an important component of radiation detection development, allowing for testing of new detector designs, evaluation of existing equipment against a wide variety of potential threat sources, and assessing operation performance of radiation detection systems. This can, however, result in large and complex scenarios which are time consuming to model. A variety of approaches to radiation transport modeling exist with complementary strengths and weaknesses for different problems. This variety of approaches, and the development of promising new tools (such as ORNL’s ADVANTG) which combine benefits of multiple approaches, illustrates the need for a means of evaluating or comparing different techniques for radiation detection problems. This report presents a set of 9 benchmark problems for comparing different types of radiation transport calculations, identifying appropriate tools for classes of problems, and testing and guiding the development of new methods. The benchmarks were drawn primarily from existing or previous calculations with a preference for scenarios which include experimental data, or otherwise have results with a high level of confidence, are non-sensitive, and represent problem sets of interest to NA-22. From a technical perspective, the benchmarks were chosen to span a range of difficulty and to include gamma transport, neutron transport, or both and represent different important physical processes and a range of sensitivity to angular or energy fidelity. Following benchmark identification, existing information about geometry, measurements, and previous calculations were assembled. Monte Carlo results (MCNP decks) were reviewed or created and re-run in order to attain accurate computational times and to verify agreement with experimental data, when present. Benchmark information was then conveyed to ORNL in order to guide testing and development of hybrid calculations. The results of those ADVANTG calculations were then sent to PNNL for

  6. SU-E-CAMPUS-T-05: Preliminary Results On a 2D Dosimetry System Based On the Optically Stimulated Luminescence of Al2O3

    SciTech Connect

    Ahmed, M; Eller, S; Yukihara, E; Schnell, E; Ahmad, S; Akselrod, M; Hanson, O

    2014-06-15

    Purpose: To develop a precise 2D dose mapping technique based on the optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) from Al{sub 2}O{sub 3} films for medical applications. Methods: A 2D laser scanning reader was developed using fast F{sup +}-center (lifetime of <7 ns) and slow F-center (lifetime of 35 ms) OSL emission from newly developed Al{sub 2}O{sub 3} films (Landauer Inc.). An algorithm was developed to correct images for both material and system properties. Since greater contribution of the F??-center emission in the recorded signal increases the readout efficiency and robustness of image corrections, Al{sub 2}O{sub 3}:C,Mg film samples are being investigated in addition to Al{sub 2}O{sub 3}:C samples. Preliminary investigations include exposure of the films to a 6 MV photon beam at 10 cm depth in solid water phantom with an SSD of 100 cm, using a 10 cm × 10 cm flat field or a 4 cm × 4 cm field with a 60° wedge filter. Kodak EDR2 radiographic film and EBT2 Gafchromic film were also exposed for comparison. Results: The results indicate that the algorithm is able to correct images and calculate 2D dose. For the wedge field irradiation, the calculated dose at the center of the field was 0.9 Gy for Al{sub 2}O{sub 3}:C and 0.87 Gy for Al{sub 2}O{sub 3}:C,Mg, whereas, the delivered dose was 0.95 Gy. A good qualitative agreement of the dose profiles was obtained between the OSL films and EDR2 and EBT2 films. Laboratory tests using a beta source suggest that a large dynamic range (10{sup −2}−10{sup 2} Gy) can be achieved using this technique. Conclusion: A 2D dosimetry system and an in-house image correction algorithm were developed for 2D film dosimetry in medical applications. The system is in the preliminary stage of development, but the data demonstrates the feasibility of this approach. This work was supported by Landauer, Inc.

  7. Optimizing Decision Preparedness by Adapting Scenario Complexity and Automating Scenario Generation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dunne, Rob; Schatz, Sae; Flore, Stephen M.; Nicholson, Denise

    2011-01-01

    Klein's recognition-primed decision (RPD) framework proposes that experts make decisions by recognizing similarities between current decision situations and previous decision experiences. Unfortunately, military personnel arQ often presented with situations that they have not experienced before. Scenario-based training (S8T) can help mitigate this gap. However, SBT remains a challenging and inefficient training approach. To address these limitations, the authors present an innovative formulation of scenario complexity that contributes to the larger research goal of developing an automated scenario generation system. This system will enable trainees to effectively advance through a variety of increasingly complex decision situations and experiences. By adapting scenario complexities and automating generation, trainees will be provided with a greater variety of appropriately calibrated training events, thus broadening their repositories of experience. Preliminary results from empirical testing (N=24) of the proof-of-concept formula are presented, and future avenues of scenario complexity research are also discussed.

  8. Simulation of selected ground-water pumping scenarios at Fort Stewart and Hunter Army Airfield, Georgia

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cherry, Gregory S.

    2006-01-01

    A regional MODFLOW ground-water flow model of parts of coastal Georgia, Florida, and South Carolina was used to evaluate the effects of current and hypothetical groundwater withdrawal, and the relative effects of pumping in specific areas on ground-water flow in the Upper Floridan aquifer near Fort Stewart and Hunter Army Airfield (HAAF), coastal Georgia. Simulation results for four steady-state pumping scenarios were compared to each other and to a Base Case condition. The Base Case represents year 2000 pumping rates throughout the model area, with the exception that permitted annual average pumping rates for the year 2005 were used for 26 production wells at Fort Stewart and HAAF. The four pumping scenarios focused on pumping increases at HAAF resulting from projected future demands and additional personnel stationed at the facility and on reductions in pumping at Fort Stewart. Scenarios A and B simulate 1- and 2-million-gallon-perday (Mgal/d) increases, respectively, at HAAF. Simulated water-level change maps for these scenarios indicate an area of influence that extends into parts of Bryan, Bulloch, Chatham, Effingham, and Liberty Counties, Ga., and Beaufort and Jasper Counties, S.C., with maximum drawdowns from 0.5 to 4 feet (ft) for scenario A and 1 to 8 ft for Scenario B. For scenarios C and D, increases in pumping at HAAF were offset by decreases in pumping at Fort Stewart. Scenario C represents a 1-Mgal/d increase at HAAF and a 1-Mgal/d decrease at Fort Stewart; simulated water-level changes range from 0.4 to -4 ft. Scenario D represents a 2-Mgal/d increase at HAAF and 2-Mgal/d decrease at Fort Stewart; simulated water-level changes range from 0.04 to -8 ft. The simulated water-level changes indicate an area of influence that extends into parts of Bryan, Bulloch, Chatham, Effingham, Liberty, and McIntosh Counties, Ga., and Jasper and Beaufort Counties, S.C. In general, decreasing pumping at Fort Stewart by an equivalent amount to pumping increases at HAAF

  9. Development of a super-pressure balloon with a diamond-shaped net --- result of a ground inflation test of a 2,000 cubic-meter balloon ---

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saito, Yoshitaka; Nakashino, Kyoichi; Akita, Daisuke; Matsushima, Kiyoho; Shimadu, Shigeyuki; Goto, Ken; Hashimoto, Hiroyuki; Matsuo, Takuma

    2016-07-01

    A light super-pressure balloon has been developed using a method to cover a balloon with a diamond-shaped net of high-tensile fibers. The goal is to fly a payload of 900 kg to the altitude of 37 km with a 300,000 m^{3} balloon. Beginning from a demonstration test of the net-balloon with a 10 m^{3} balloon in 2010, we have been polished the net-balloon through ground inflation tests and flight tests, including a flight test of a 3,000 m ^{3} balloon in the tandem balloon configuration with a 15,000 m^{3} zero-pressure balloon in 2012, and a flight test of a 10 m^{3} balloon in the tandem balloon configuration with a 2 kg rubber balloon in 2013, as reported in the last COSPAR. In 2014, we developed a 5,000 m^{3} balloon and performed a ground inflation test to find that the balloon burst from a lip panel for termination with a differential pressure of 425 Pa. It was due to a stress concentration at the edge of a thick tape attached along the termination mechanism. In 2015, we modified the balloon by adding tapes on the lip panel to avoid the stress concentration, and also shorten the net length to leave some margin of the film and performed a ground inflation test again to find the balloon showed asymmetrical deployment and burst from the edge of the net with a differential pressure of 348 Pa. We consider it is due to the margin of the film along the circumferential direction, and proposed a gore shape which circumference length is kept as determined by the pumpkin shape of the balloon but setting meridian length longer than that. We developed a 10 m^{3} balloon with the gore design to find that the balloon deployed symmetrically and showed the burst pressure of 10,000 Pa. In 2016, we are going to develop a 2,000 m^{3} balloon with the gore design and perform its ground inflation test. In this paper, we are going to report its result with the sequence of the development.

  10. Industrial research for transmutation scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Camarcat, Noel; Garzenne, Claude; Le Mer, Joël; Leroyer, Hadrien; Desroches, Estelle; Delbecq, Jean-Michel

    2011-04-01

    This article presents the results of research scenarios for americium transmutation in a 22nd century French nuclear fleet, using sodium fast breeder reactors. We benchmark the americium transmutation benefits and drawbacks with a reference case consisting of a hypothetical 60 GWe fleet of pure plutonium breeders. The fluxes in the various parts of the cycle (reactors, fabrication plants, reprocessing plants and underground disposals) are calculated using EDF's suite of codes, comparable in capabilities to those of other research facilities. We study underground thermal heat load reduction due to americium partitioning and repository area minimization. We endeavor to estimate the increased technical complexity of surface facilities to handle the americium fluxes in special fuel fabrication plants, americium fast burners, special reprocessing shops, handling equipments and transport casks between those facilities.

  11. A Dominant Negative Heterozygous G87R Mutation in the Zinc Transporter, ZnT-2 (SLC30A2), Results in Transient Neonatal Zinc Deficiency

    PubMed Central

    Lasry, Inbal; Seo, Young Ah; Ityel, Hadas; Shalva, Nechama; Pode-Shakked, Ben; Glaser, Fabian; Berman, Bluma; Berezovsky, Igor; Goncearenco, Alexander; Klar, Aharon; Levy, Jacob; Anikster, Yair; Kelleher, Shannon L.; Assaraf, Yehuda G.

    2012-01-01

    Zinc is an essential mineral, and infants are particularly vulnerable to zinc deficiency as they require large amounts of zinc for their normal growth and development. We have recently described the first loss-of-function mutation (H54R) in the zinc transporter ZnT-2 (SLC30A2) in mothers with infants harboring transient neonatal zinc deficiency (TNZD). Here we identified and characterized a novel heterozygous G87R ZnT-2 mutation in two unrelated Ashkenazi Jewish mothers with infants displaying TNZD. Transient transfection of G87R ZnT-2 resulted in endoplasmic reticulum-Golgi retention, whereas the WT transporter properly localized to intracellular secretory vesicles in HC11 and MCF-7 cells. Consequently, G87R ZnT-2 showed decreased stability compared with WT ZnT-2 as revealed by Western blot analysis. Three-dimensional homology modeling based on the crystal structure of YiiP, a close zinc transporter homologue from Escherichia coli, revealed that the basic arginine residue of the mutant G87R points toward the membrane lipid core, suggesting misfolding and possible loss-of-function. Indeed, functional assays including vesicular zinc accumulation, zinc secretion, and cytoplasmic zinc pool assessment revealed markedly impaired zinc transport in G87R ZnT-2 transfectants. Moreover, co-transfection experiments with both mutant and WT transporters revealed a dominant negative effect of G87R ZnT-2 over the WT ZnT-2; this was associated with mislocalization, decreased stability, and loss of zinc transport activity of the WT ZnT-2 due to homodimerization observed upon immunoprecipitation experiments. These findings establish that inactivating ZnT-2 mutations are an underlying basis of TNZD and provide the first evidence for the dominant inheritance of heterozygous ZnT-2 mutations via negative dominance due to homodimer formation. PMID:22733820

  12. The ShakeOut Scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jones, Lucile M.; Bernknopf, Richard; Cox, Dale; Goltz, James; Hudnut, Kenneth; Mileti, Dennis; Perry, Suzanne; Ponti, Daniel; Porter, Keith; Reichle, Michael; Seligson, Hope; Shoaf, Kimberley; Treiman, Jerry; Wein, Anne

    2008-01-01

    This is the initial publication of the results of a cooperative project to examine the implications of a major earthquake in southern California. The study comprised eight counties: Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura. Its results will be used as the basis of an emergency response and preparedness exercise, the Great Southern California ShakeOut, and for this purpose we defined our earthquake as occurring at 10:00 a.m. on November 13, 2008. As members of the southern California community use the ShakeOut Scenario to plan and execute the exercise, we anticipate discussion and feedback. This community input will be used to refine our assessment and will lead to a formal publication in early 2009. Our goal in the ShakeOut Scenario is to identify the physical, social and economic consequences of a major earthquake in southern California and in so doing, enable the users of our results to identify what they can change now?before the earthquake?to avoid catastrophic impact after the inevitable earthquake occurs. To do so, we had to determine the physical damages (casualties and losses) caused by the earthquake and the impact of those damages on the region?s social and economic systems. To do this, we needed to know about the earthquake ground shaking and fault rupture. So we first constructed an earthquake, taking all available earthquake research information, from trenching and exposed evidence of prehistoric earthquakes, to analysis of instrumental recordings of large earthquakes and the latest theory in earthquake source physics. We modeled a magnitude (M) 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault, a plausible event on the fault most likely to produce a major earthquake. This information was then fed forward into the rest of the ShakeOut Scenario. The damage impacts of the scenario earthquake were estimated using both HAZUS-MH and expert opinion through 13 special studies and 6 expert panels, and fall into four

  13. Student Rights and Responsibilities Scenarios.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peterson, Ludwig A.; And Others

    To stimulate interest in student's rights and responsibilities, this resource contains incomplete scenarios dealing with the consequences of knowing and not knowing the law, as it is applied to modern practical situations. The scenarios can be used in high school courses such as government, social problems, history, psychology, and business law.…

  14. Platform Support for Pedagogical Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peter, Yvan; Vantroys, Thomas

    2005-01-01

    This article deals with providing support for the execution of pedagogical scenarios in Learning Management Systems. It takes an engineering point of view to identifies actors, design and use processes. Next it defines the necessary capabilities of a platform so that actors can manage or use pedagogical scenarios. The second part of the article is…

  15. Futures Scenario in Science Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lloyd, David; Vanderhout, Annastasia; Lloyd, Lisa; Atkins, David

    2010-01-01

    In this article we describe our experiences in developing futures scenarios in two science contexts, space science and atmospheric science/climate change. Futures scenario writing can develop scientific literacy by connecting science learning to students' lifeworlds--past, present and future. They also provide a synthesising mechanism for…

  16. Scenario Planning in Higher Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rieley, James

    Scenario planning can help institutions change the mental models used in planning to achieve a focus on the long-term future, rather than on the immediate future. While institutional survival depends upon the ability to detect and adapt to critical changes in the environment, all institutions face a wide range of potential future scenarios. By…

  17. CYP21A2 p.E238 deletion as result of multiple microconversion events: a genetic study on an Italian congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH) family.

    PubMed

    Concolino, Paola; Mello, Enrica; Zuppi, Cecilia; Toscano, Vincenzo; Capoluongo, Ettore

    2013-03-01

    More than 90% of congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH) cases are associated with mutations in the 21-hydroxylase gene (CYP21A2) in the HLA class III area on the short arm of chromosome 6p21.3. The major part of disease-causing mutations in CYP21A2 alleles are CYP21A1P-derived sequence transferred to the active gene by macroconversion or microconversion events. Only around 5% of all disease-causing CYP21A2 alleles harbor rare mutations that do not originate from the pseudogene. A complete list of all reported CYP21A2 mutations can be found in the CYP21A2 database created by the Human Cytochrome P450 (CYP) Allele Nomenclature Committee (http://www.imm.Ki.se/CYPalleles/cyp21.htm). In this report, we describe clinical and genetic findings regarding an Italian woman suffering from a classic salt-wasting form of CAH due to a severe 21-hydroxylase deficiency. A complex genetic family study was performed including a prenatal diagnosis. The patient was found to be heterozygous for p.I172N (exon 4), p.E238del (exon 6), p.M239K (exon 6), and p.F306insT (exon 7) mutations and homozygous for p.I236N (exon 6) and p.V237E (exon 6) mutations. The deletion of glutamic acid 238 is a new mutation not reported before in the literature. CYP21A2 genotyping has become a valuable complement to biochemical CAH investigation. We highlight the contribution of molecular genetic advancements to the clinical management of patients with 21-hydroxylase deficiency.

  18. A Ta-rich low-P peraluminous granite: the Rechla cupola (Hoggar, Algeria) and associated pegmatites, the result of extreme fractionation of a A2-type magma.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kesraoui, M.; Marignac, C.; Hamis, A.; Cuney, M.

    2012-04-01

    pronounced <0 Eu anomaly. Geochemical modelling shows that the main Rechla magma is likely the fractionated product of this already differentiated magma, mainly involving quartz and Kfs. The pegmatite rim is interpreted as the result of the sequential crystallization of a Rechla-type melt, with late individualisation of a Fe-rich magmatic-hydrothermal phase responsible for the quartz-zinnwaldite assemblage, leaving a strongly Be-enriched residual liquid (the fine-grained granite). As demonstrated by the Rechla occurrence, Ta concentration at levels similar to those in Beauvoir-type high-P peraluminous granites may be reached in the low-P low-Ta A2 suites, provided that extreme fractionation processes are established. Azzouni-Sekkal, A., Boissonnas, J. (1993). Une province magmatique de transition du calco-alcalin à l'alcalin : les granitoïdes pan-africains à structure annulaire de la chaîne pharusienne du Hoggar (Algérie). Bulletin Société Géologique France 164, 597-608. Linnen, R.L., Cuney, M. (2005). Granite-related rare-element deposits and experimental constraints on Ta-Nb-W-Sn-Zr-Hf mineralization. In: RL Linnen, IM Samson (eds), Rare-element geochemistry and mineral deposits, Geological Association of Canada (GAC) Short Course Notes 17, pp. 45-67.

  19. A rare CYP 21 mutation (p.E431K) induced deactivation of CYP 21A2 and resulted in congenital adrenal hyperplasia.

    PubMed

    Kawashima, Yuki; Usui, Takeshi; Fujimoto, Masanobu; Miyahara, Naoki; Nishimura, Rei; Hanaki, Keiichi; Kanzaki, Susumu

    2015-01-01

    Congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH) due to 21-hydroxylase deficiency is caused by mutations in the CYP21A2 gene. The residual enzyme activity is strongly associated with the phenotype. We describe a rare case of CAH with a rare CYP21A2 mutation. The patient was a one-year-old Japanese boy. At 16 days old, he was referred to our hospital because of elevated serum 17-OH-progesterone (17-OHP) levels in neonatal screening. The compound heterozygous mutations (IVS2-13 A/C>G, and p.E431K) in CYP21A2 were identified at 2 months old, and we diagnosed non-classical CAH, since he did not have significant physical signs (pigmentation and salt-wasting). However, his body weight decreased, and his serum 17-OHP level (99.5 ng/mL) was elevated at 3 months old. Steroid replacement therapy was started at 3 months old. Our patient's clinical course resembled simple virilizing (SV) CAH, but classification was difficult because the patient showed increased renin activity indicating an aldosterone deficiency, and late onset of symptoms. While the IVS 2-13 A/C>G mutation is common in the classical form of CAH, p.E431K is a rare point mutation. Functional analysis revealed that the residual enzyme activity of p.E431L was 5.08±2.55% for 17-OHP and 4.12±2.37% for progesterone, which is consistent with SV CAH. p.E431 is localized in the L-helix near the heme-binding site. The mutation might interfere with heme binding, leading to deactivation of CYP21A2. This report showed that CYP21A2 p.E431 has an important effect on enzyme activity.

  20. Regional Climate Change Scenarios for Mexico and Potential Impacts on Rainfed Maize Agriculture.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Conde, C.; Estrada, F.; Martínez, B.; Sánchez, O.; Monterroso, A.; Rosales, G.; Gay, C.

    2010-03-01

    Regional climate change scenarios that were used to assess the potential impacts on different sectors in Mexico are presented, with an application of those scenarios for the agricultural sector. The results of that research were delivered to the Mexican government for the development of the Mexican Fourth National Communication, which will be presented to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). To generate regional climate change scenarios the models and criteria suggested by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its Fourth Assessment Report (4AR) were applied. Those criteria are: Consistency with global projections, Physical plausibility, Applicability in impact assessments, Representative of the potential range of changes in the future, Accessibility for the users of impacts assessments. The regional scenarios that were generated focus mainly on the applicability and accessibility criteria. A kick-off meeting was held at the beginning of the research work for the Fourth National Communication, to ensure that those criteria were fulfilled. Specifically, a set of climate change scenarios was generated using the outputs for temperature and precipitation of three General Circulation Models (GCMs): ECHAM5, HADGEM1 y GFDL CM2.0, for the horizons 2030 and 2050, and for the emission scenarios A1B, A2, B2 y B1. Those scenarios can be found in our web page in a low spatial resolution (2.5 º x 2.5º), and with high resolution (5’ x 5’). To assess the potential impacts on rainfed maize agriculture, the changes of the suitability of different regions in the country were evaluated, considering maize temperature and precipitation requirements at its different stages of development. Four categories of suitability (high, moderated, marginal, and no suitable) were characterized for current and future climatic conditions. Using the A2 and B2 emission scenarios, the three GCMs and the horizon 2050, results showed that around 67% of

  1. Scenario development in China's electricity sector

    SciTech Connect

    Steenhof, P.A.; Fulton, W.

    2007-07-15

    The continuing growth of China's electricity sector will affect global environmental and economic sustainability due to its impacts on greenhouse gas emissions and global resource depletion. In 2005, the generation of electricity in China resulted in the emissions of 2290 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide (approximately 53% of the nation's total) and required 779 million metric tonnes of coal (approximately 50% of China's total coal consumption). These figures are expected to increase with China's economic growth. In order to gauge the range in which fuel consumption and CO{sub 2} emissions could grow a scenario-based conceptual model has been developed by the authors (published in this journal). The application and analysis of this shows that under a business as usual (BAU) scenario, electricity generation could contribute upwards of 56% of China's energy related greenhouse gas emissions by 2020. Meanwhile, consumption of coal will also increase, growing to nearly 60% of total national demand by 2020. However, variations in a number of key drivers could produce significant deviation from the BAU scenario. With accelerated economic output, even with greater technological advances and greater potential to bring natural gas on stream, carbon dioxide emissions would rise 10% above the BAU. Alternatively, in a scenario where China's economy grows at a tempered pace, less investment would be available for advanced technologies, developing natural gas infrastructure, or nuclear energy. In this scenario, reduced economic growth and electricity demand would thereby be countered by reduced efficiency and a higher contribution of coal.

  2. Coffee and tea consumption, genotype-based CYP1A2 and NAT2 activity and colorectal cancer risk-results from the EPIC cohort study.

    PubMed

    Dik, Vincent K; Bueno-de-Mesquita, H B As; Van Oijen, Martijn G H; Siersema, Peter D; Uiterwaal, Cuno S P M; Van Gils, Carla H; Van Duijnhoven, Fränzel J B; Cauchi, Stéphane; Yengo, Loic; Froguel, Philippe; Overvad, Kim; Bech, Bodil H; Tjønneland, Anne; Olsen, Anja; Boutron-Ruault, Marie-Christine; Racine, Antoine; Fagherazzi, Guy; Kühn, Tilman; Campa, Daniele; Boeing, Heiner; Aleksandrova, Krasimira; Trichopoulou, Antonia; Peppa, Eleni; Oikonomou, Eleni; Palli, Domenico; Grioni, Sara; Vineis, Paolo; Tumino, Rosaria; Panico, Salvatore; Peeters, Petra H M; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Engeset, Dagrun; Braaten, Tonje; Dorronsoro, Miren; Chirlaque, María-Dolores; Sánchez, María-José; Barricarte, Aurelio; Zamora-Ros, Raul; Argüelles, Marcial; Jirström, Karin; Wallström, Peter; Nilsson, Lena M; Ljuslinder, Ingrid; Travis, Ruth C; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Wareham, Nick; Freisling, Heinz; Licaj, Idlir; Jenab, Mazda; Gunter, Marc J; Murphy, Neil; Romaguera-Bosch, Dora; Riboli, Elio

    2014-07-15

    Coffee and tea contain numerous antimutagenic and antioxidant components and high levels of caffeine that may protect against colorectal cancer (CRC). We investigated the association between coffee and tea consumption and CRC risk and studied potential effect modification by CYP1A2 and NAT2 genotypes, enzymes involved in the metabolization of caffeine. Data from 477,071 participants (70.2% female) of the European Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort study were analyzed. At baseline (1992-2000) habitual (total, caffeinated and decaffeinated) coffee and tea consumption was assessed with dietary questionnaires. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratio's (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Potential effect modification by genotype-based CYP1A2 and NAT2 activity was studied in a nested case-control set of 1,252 cases and 2,175 controls. After a median follow-up of 11.6 years, 4,234 participants developed CRC (mean age 64.7 ± 8.3 years). Total coffee consumption (high vs. non/low) was not associated with CRC risk (HR 1.06, 95% CI 0.95-1.18) or subsite cancers, and no significant associations were found for caffeinated (HR 1.10, 95% CI 0.97-1.26) and decaffeinated coffee (HR 0.96, 95% CI 0.84-1.11) and tea (HR 0.97, 95% CI 0.86-1.09). High coffee and tea consuming subjects with slow CYP1A2 or NAT2 activity had a similar CRC risk compared to non/low coffee and tea consuming subjects with a fast CYP1A2 or NAT2 activity, which suggests that caffeine metabolism does not affect the link between coffee and tea consumption and CRC risk. This study shows that coffee and tea consumption is not likely to be associated with overall CRC. PMID:24318358

  3. Generating Scenarios When Data Are Missing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mackey, Ryan

    2007-01-01

    The Hypothetical Scenario Generator (HSG) is being developed in conjunction with other components of artificial-intelligence systems for automated diagnosis and prognosis of faults in spacecraft, aircraft, and other complex engineering systems. The HSG accepts, as input, possibly incomplete data on the current state of a system (see figure). The HSG models a potential fault scenario as an ordered disjunctive tree of conjunctive consequences, wherein the ordering is based upon the likelihood that a particular conjunctive path will be taken for the given set of inputs. The computation of likelihood is based partly on a numerical ranking of the degree of completeness of data with respect to satisfaction of the antecedent conditions of prognostic rules. The results from the HSG are then used by a model-based artificial- intelligence subsystem to predict realistic scenarios and states.

  4. Creating a Scenario Suitable for Multiple Caregivers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Doerr, Harold; Bacal, Kira; Hurst, Victor

    2004-01-01

    The HPS can be utilized for the training of a wide variety of caregivers, ranging from physicians to laypeople. Methods: A single scenario was developed and adapted for a number of clinical scenarios and operational environments, ranging from in-flight to the immediate postflight timeline. In this way, different caregivers, from astronauts to search and rescue forces to specialty-boarded physicians, could make use of a single clinical situation. Five crew medical officer analogs and sixty anesthesia residents, serving as flight surgeon analogs, and, were briefed on space medicine and physiology, then were exposed to the scenario and asked to manage the patient as if they were part of the in-flight or recovery team. Results: Basic themes, such as crisis resource management, were standard across the student audiences. Discussion: A single clinical script can easily be adapted for multiple uses.

  5. Nuclear Futures Analysis and Scenario Building

    SciTech Connect

    Arthur, E.D.; Beller, D.; Canavan, G.H.; Krakowski, R.A.; Peterson, P.; Wagner, R.L.

    1999-07-09

    This LDRD project created and used advanced analysis capabilities to postulate scenarios and identify issues, externalities, and technologies associated with future ''things nuclear''. ''Things nuclear'' include areas pertaining to nuclear weapons, nuclear materials, and nuclear energy, examined in the context of future domestic and international environments. Analysis tools development included adaptation and expansion of energy, environmental, and economics (E3) models to incorporate a robust description of the nuclear fuel cycle (both current and future technology pathways), creation of a beginning proliferation risk model (coupled to the (E3) model), and extension of traditional first strike stability models to conditions expected to exist in the future (smaller force sizes, multipolar engagement environments, inclusion of actual and latent nuclear weapons (capability)). Accomplishments include scenario development for regional and global nuclear energy, the creation of a beginning nuclear architecture designed to improve the proliferation resistance and environmental performance of the nuclear fuel cycle, and numerous results for future nuclear weapons scenarios.

  6. Scenarios, targets, gaps, and costs

    SciTech Connect

    Edmonds, James A.; Joos, Fortunat; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Richels, Richard G.; Sarmiento, Jorge L.

    2005-03-30

    This paper explores the connection between human activities and the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. t explores the implication of the wide range of emissions scenarios developed by the IPCC in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and concludes that a robust finding is that major changes will be required in the global energy system if the concentration of carbon dioxide is eventually to be stabilized.

  7. Alternative scenarios utilizing nonterrestrial resources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eldred, Charles H.; Roberts, Barney B.

    A collection of alternative scenarios that are enabled or substantially enhanced by the utilization of nonterrestrial resources is provided. We take a generalized approach to scenario building so that our report will have value in the context of whatever goals are eventually chosen. Some of the topics covered include the following: lunar materials processing; asteroid mining; lunar resources; construction of a large solar power station; solar dynamic power for the space station; reduced gravity; mission characteristics and options; and tourism.

  8. Alternative scenarios utilizing nonterrestrial resources

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eldred, Charles H.; Roberts, Barney B.

    1992-01-01

    A collection of alternative scenarios that are enabled or substantially enhanced by the utilization of nonterrestrial resources is provided. We take a generalized approach to scenario building so that our report will have value in the context of whatever goals are eventually chosen. Some of the topics covered include the following: lunar materials processing; asteroid mining; lunar resources; construction of a large solar power station; solar dynamic power for the space station; reduced gravity; mission characteristics and options; and tourism.

  9. Refining the Value of Secretory Phospholipase A2 as a Predictor of Acute Chest Syndrome in Sickle Cell Disease: Results of a Feasibility Study (PROACTIVE)

    PubMed Central

    Styles, Lori; Wager, Carrie G.; Labotka, Richard J.; Smith-Whitley, Kim; Thompson, Alexis A.; Lane, Peter A.; McMahon, Lillian E.C; Miller, Robin; Roseff, Susan; Iyer, Rathi; Hsu, Lewis L.; Castro, Oswaldo; Ataga, Kenneth; Onyekwere, Onyinye; Okam, Maureen; Bellevue, Rita; Miller, Scott T.

    2012-01-01

    Acute chest syndrome (ACS) is defined as fever, respiratory symptoms and a new pulmonary infiltrate in an individual with sickle cell disease (SCD). Nearly half of ACS episodes occur in SCD patients already hospitalized, potentially permitting pre-emptive therapy in high-risk patients. Simple transfusion of red blood cells may abort ACS if given to patients hospitalized for pain who develop fever and elevated levels of secretory phospholipase A2 (sPLA2). In a feasibility study (PROACTIVE; ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00951808), patients hospitalized for pain who developed fever and elevated sPLA2 were eligible for randomization to transfusion or observation; all others were enrolled in an observational arm. Of 237 enrolled, only 10 were randomized; one of the four to receive transfusion had delayed treatment. Of 233 subjects receiving standard care, 22 developed ACS. A threshold level of sPLA2 ≥ 48 ng/ml gave optimal sensitivity (73%), specificity (71%) and accuracy (71%), but a positive predictive value of only 24%. The predictive value of sPLA2 was improved in adults and patients with chest or back pain, lower haemoglobin concentration and higher white blood cell counts; and those receiving less than two-thirds maintenance fluids. The hurdles identified in PROACTIVE should facilitate design of a larger, definitive, phase 3 randomized controlled trial. PMID:22463614

  10. Medical Scenarios Relevant to Spaceflight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bacal, Kira; Hurs, Victor; Doerr, Harold

    2004-01-01

    The Medical Operational Support Team (MOST) was tasked by the JSC Space Medicine and Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) to incorporate medical simulation into 1) medical training for astronaut-crew medical officers (CMO) and medical flight control teams and 2) evaluations of procedures and resources required for medical care aboard the International Space Station (ISS). Development of evidence-based medical scenarios that mimic the physiology observed during spaceflight will be needed for the MOST to complete these two tasks. The MOST used a human patient simulator, the ISS-like resources in the Medical Simulation Laboratory (MSL), and evidence from space operations, military operations and medical literature to develop space relevant medical scenarios. These scenarios include conditions concerning airway management, Advanced Cardiac Life Support (ACLS) and mitigating anaphylactic symptoms. The MOST has used these space relevant medical scenarios to develop a preliminary space medical training regimen for NASA flight surgeons, Biomedical Flight Controllers (Biomedical Engineers; BME) and CMO-analogs. This regimen is conducted by the MOST in the MSL. The MOST has the capability to develop evidence-based space-relevant medical scenarios that can help SLSD I) demonstrate the proficiency of medical flight control teams to mitigate space-relevant medical events and 2) validate nextgeneration medical equipment and procedures for space medicine applications.

  11. Alternative Geothermal Power Production Scenarios

    DOE Data Explorer

    Sullivan, John

    2014-03-14

    The information given in this file pertains to Argonne LCAs of the plant cycle stage for a set of ten new geothermal scenario pairs, each comprised of a reference and improved case. These analyses were conducted to compare environmental performances among the scenarios and cases. The types of plants evaluated are hydrothermal binary and flash and Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) binary and flash plants. Each scenario pair was developed by the LCOE group using GETEM as a way to identify plant operational and resource combinations that could reduce geothermal power plant LCOE values. Based on the specified plant and well field characteristics (plant type, capacity, capacity factor and lifetime, and well numbers and depths) for each case of each pair, Argonne generated a corresponding set of material to power ratios (MPRs) and greenhouse gas and fossil energy ratios.

  12. Integrated Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A). Engineering Test Report: Radiated Emissions and SARR, SARP, DCS Receivers, Link Frequencies EMI Sensitive Band Test Results, AMSU-A2, S/N 108, 08

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Valdez, A.

    2000-01-01

    This is the Engineering Test Report, Radiated Emissions and SARR, SARP, DCS Receivers, Link Frequencies EMI Sensitive Band Test Results, AMSU-A2, S/N 108, for the Integrated Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A).

  13. The USGS Earthquake Scenario Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wald, D. J.; Petersen, M. D.; Wald, L. A.; Frankel, A. D.; Quitoriano, V. R.; Lin, K.; Luco, N.; Mathias, S.; Bausch, D.

    2009-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (EHP) is producing a comprehensive suite of earthquake scenarios for planning, mitigation, loss estimation, and scientific investigations. The Earthquake Scenario Project (ESP), though lacking clairvoyance, is a forward-looking project, estimating earthquake hazard and loss outcomes as they may occur one day. For each scenario event, fundamental input includes i) the magnitude and specified fault mechanism and dimensions, ii) regional Vs30 shear velocity values for site amplification, and iii) event metadata. A grid of standard ShakeMap ground motion parameters (PGA, PGV, and three spectral response periods) is then produced using the well-defined, regionally-specific approach developed by the USGS National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project (NHSMP), including recent advances in empirical ground motion predictions (e.g., the NGA relations). The framework also allows for numerical (3D) ground motion computations for specific, detailed scenario analyses. Unlike NSHMP ground motions, for ESP scenarios, local rock and soil site conditions and commensurate shaking amplifications are applied based on detailed Vs30 maps where available or based on topographic slope as a proxy. The scenario event set is comprised primarily by selection from the NSHMP events, though custom events are also allowed based on coordination of the ESP team with regional coordinators, seismic hazard experts, seismic network operators, and response coordinators. The event set will be harmonized with existing and future scenario earthquake events produced regionally or by other researchers. The event list includes approximate 200 earthquakes in CA, 100 in NV, dozens in each of NM, UT, WY, and a smaller number in other regions. Systematic output will include all standard ShakeMap products, including HAZUS input, GIS, KML, and XML files used for visualization, loss estimation, ShakeCast, PAGER, and for other systems. All products will be

  14. 2015 Standard Scenarios Annual Report: U.S. Electric Sector Scenario Exploration

    SciTech Connect

    Sullivan, Patrick; Cole, Wesley; Blair, Nate; Lantz, Eric; Krishnan, Venkat; Mai, Trieu; Mulcahy, David; Porro, Gian

    2015-07-16

    This report is one of several products resulting from an initial effort to provide a consistent set of technology cost and performance data and to define a conceptual and consistent scenario framework that can be used in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) future analyses. The long-term objective of this effort is to identify a range of possible futures of the U.S. electricity sector in which to consider specific energy system issues through (1) defining a set of prospective scenarios that bound ranges of key technology, market, and policy assumptions and (2) assessing these scenarios in NREL’s market models to understand the range of resulting outcomes, including energy technology deployment and production, energy prices, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

  15. Results of a 2-year randomized, controlled obesity prevention trial: Effects on diet, activity and sleep behaviors in an at-risk young adult population.

    PubMed

    Laska, Melissa N; Lytle, Leslie A; Nanney, Marilyn S; Moe, Stacey G; Linde, Jennifer A; Hannan, Peter J

    2016-08-01

    Excess weight gain tends to occur in young adulthood. However, research examining effective weight-related interventions for this age group has been limited. As one of seven trials in the EARLY Trials consortium (Early Adult Reduction of weight through LifestYle intervention), the CHOICES Study (Choosing Healthy Options in College Environments and Settings) tested effects of a technology-integrated, young adult weight gain prevention intervention. It was a randomized controlled trial with assessments at baseline (2011) and 4-, 12- and 24-months post-intervention initiation and included 441 participants (ages 18-35) who were students at three Minnesota community colleges. The 24-month intervention included a 1-credit academic course and social networking and support online intervention. This analysis examined effects on 12 secondary behavioral outcomes across three domains: diet (fast food, sugary beverages, breakfast, at-home meal preparation), physical activity/screen time (minutes and energy expenditure in leisure time physical activity, television viewing, leisure time computer use) and sleep (hours of sleep, time required to fall asleep, days not getting enough rest, difficulty staying awake). The intervention resulted in significant reductions in fast food (p=0.007) but increases in difficulty staying awake (p=0.015). There was limited evidence of other behavior changes at 4months (0.05results (p=0.005). Additional research is needed to understand effective obesity prevention among young adults, particularly when addressing multiple weight-related outcomes. PMID:27283096

  16. Results of a 2-year randomized, controlled obesity prevention trial: Effects on diet, activity and sleep behaviors in an at-risk young adult population.

    PubMed

    Laska, Melissa N; Lytle, Leslie A; Nanney, Marilyn S; Moe, Stacey G; Linde, Jennifer A; Hannan, Peter J

    2016-08-01

    Excess weight gain tends to occur in young adulthood. However, research examining effective weight-related interventions for this age group has been limited. As one of seven trials in the EARLY Trials consortium (Early Adult Reduction of weight through LifestYle intervention), the CHOICES Study (Choosing Healthy Options in College Environments and Settings) tested effects of a technology-integrated, young adult weight gain prevention intervention. It was a randomized controlled trial with assessments at baseline (2011) and 4-, 12- and 24-months post-intervention initiation and included 441 participants (ages 18-35) who were students at three Minnesota community colleges. The 24-month intervention included a 1-credit academic course and social networking and support online intervention. This analysis examined effects on 12 secondary behavioral outcomes across three domains: diet (fast food, sugary beverages, breakfast, at-home meal preparation), physical activity/screen time (minutes and energy expenditure in leisure time physical activity, television viewing, leisure time computer use) and sleep (hours of sleep, time required to fall asleep, days not getting enough rest, difficulty staying awake). The intervention resulted in significant reductions in fast food (p=0.007) but increases in difficulty staying awake (p=0.015). There was limited evidence of other behavior changes at 4months (0.05results (p=0.005). Additional research is needed to understand effective obesity prevention among young adults, particularly when addressing multiple weight-related outcomes.

  17. Shipping container response to three severe railway accident scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Mok, G.C.; Fischer, L.E.; Murty, S.S.; Witte, M.C.

    1998-04-01

    The probability of damage and the potential resulting hazards are analyzed for a representative rail shipping container for three severe rail accident scenarios. The scenarios are: (1) the rupture of closure bolts and resulting opening of closure lid due to a severe impact, (2) the puncture of container by an impacting rail-car coupler, and (3) the yielding of container due to side impact on a rigid uneven surface. The analysis results indicate that scenario 2 is a physically unreasonable event while the probabilities of a significant loss of containment in scenarios 1 and 3 are extremely small. Before assessing the potential risk for the last two scenarios, the uncertainties in predicting complex phenomena for rare, high- consequence hazards needs to be addressed using a rigorous methodology.

  18. Glacitectonic rafting and associated deformation of mid-Pleistocene glacigenic sediments, near Central Graben, central North Sea; results of a 2D High-Resolution Geophysical Survey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vaughan-Hirsch, David

    2013-04-01

    Glacitectonic rafts are defined as dislocated slabs of bedrock or unconsolidated sediments, transported from their original position by glacial action. These relatively thin, slab-like bodies feature transport distances ranging from tens of meters to hundreds of kilometers. They occur as either single rafts, or multiple stacked bodies associated with a variety of ice-pushed landforms. Internally, rafts frequently appear undeformed although at a larger scale, they may be folded or cut by shear zones and brittle faults. However, the processes leading to the detachment, transport and subsequent emplacement of the rafts remain uncertain. This work describes the results of a geophysical 2D seismic survey of thrust-bound glacitectonic rafts and associated deformation structures, occurring within mid-Pleistocene glacigenic sediments of the Central Graben, central North Sea. The total shortened length of the rafted section is 2.4km, comprising a series of nine discrete rafts which individually range from 235m to 1018m in length. The principle basal detachment occurs at the erosive contact between Aberdeen Ground Formation and overlying Ling Bank Formation. The ice-proximal (northern) limit of rafting is defined by the presence of a large-scale palaeo-channel oriented perpendicular to the direction of rafting, composed of sediments of the Ling Bank Formation and the Forth Formation. The observed deformation structures infer a mean tectonic direction of 178°, indicating that they are associated with an active glacial advance from the north. The resulting deformation creates a minimum lateral shortening throughout the observed sequence of 35%, typifying a strongly compressional regieme associated with rafting. Throughout the surveyed area, structurally younger rafts are found to be emplaced towards the south, compared to the structurally older rafts which are emplaced towards the south-east. This distinction is suggested to be caused by early rafts creating an obstacle to

  19. A 2D model of axial symmetry for proximal tubule of an average human nephron: indicative results of diffusion, convection and absorption processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Insfrán, J. F.; Ubal, S.; Di Paolo, y. J.

    2016-04-01

    A simplified model of a proximal convoluted tubule of an average human nephron is presented. The model considers the 2D axisymmetric flow of the luminal solution exchanging matter with the tubule walls and the peritubular fluid by means of 0D models for the epithelial cells. The tubule radius is considered to vary along the conduit due to the trans-epithelial pressure difference. The fate of more than ten typical solutes is tracked down by the model. The Navier-Stokes and Reaction-Diffusion-Advection equations (considering the electro-neutrality principle) are solved in the lumen, giving a detailed picture of the velocity, pressure and concentration fields, along with trans-membrane fluxes and tubule deformation, via coupling with the 0D model for the tubule wall. The calculations are carried out numerically by means of the finite element method. The results obtained show good agreement with those published by other authors using models that ignore the diffusive transport and disregard a detailed calculation of velocity, pressure and concentrations. This work should be seen as a first approach towards the development of a more comprehensive model of the filtration process taking place in the kidneys, which ultimately helps in devising a device that can mimic/complement the renal function.

  20. Working memory arrest in children with high-functioning autism compared to children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder: results from a 2-year longitudinal study.

    PubMed

    Andersen, Per N; Skogli, Erik W; Hovik, Kjell T; Geurts, Hilde; Egeland, Jens; Øie, Merete

    2015-05-01

    The aim of this study was to analyse the development of verbal working memory in children with high-functioning autism compared to children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder and typically developing children. A total of 34 children with high-functioning autism, 72 children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder and 45 typically developing children (age 9-16 years) were included at baseline and followed up approximately 25 months later. The children were given a letter/number sequencing task to assess verbal working memory. The performance of children with high-functioning autism on verbal working memory did not improve after 2 years, while improvement was observed in children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder and typically developing children. The results indicate a different developmental trajectory for verbal working memory in children with high-functioning autism compared to children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder and typically developing children. More research is needed to construct a developmental framework more suitable for children with autism spectrum disorder.

  1. An HLA-A2-restricted tyrosinase antigen on melanoma cells results from posttranslational modification and suggests a novel pathway for processing of membrane proteins

    PubMed Central

    1996-01-01

    T lymphocytes recognize antigens consisting of peptides presented by class I and II major histocompatibility complex (MHC) molecules. The peptides identified so far have been predictable from the amino acid sequences of proteins. We have identified the natural peptide target of a CTL clone that recognizes the tyrosinase gene product on melanoma cells. The peptide results from posttranslational conversion of asparagine to aspartic acid. This change is of central importance for peptide recognition by melanoma-specific T cells, but has no impact on peptide binding to the MHC molecule. This posttranslational modification has not been previously described for any MHC-associated peptide and represents the first demonstration of posttranslational modification of a naturally processed class I-associated peptide. This observation is relevant to the identification and prediction of potential peptide antigens. The most likely mechanism for production of this peptide leads to the suggestion that antigenic peptides can be derived from proteins that are translated into the endoplasmic reticulum. PMID:8627164

  2. Ultra-Perfect Sorting Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ouangraoua, Aïda; Bergeron, Anne; Swenson, Krister M.

    Perfection has been used as a criteria to select rearrangement scenarios since 2004. However, there is a fundamental bias towards extant species in the original definition: ancestral species are not bound to perfection. Here we develop a new theory of perfection that takes an egalitarian view of species, and apply it to the complex evolution of mammal chromosome X.

  3. Future Scenarios and Environmental Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kopnina, Helen

    2014-01-01

    This article explores a number of questions about visions of the future and their implications for environmental education (EE). If the future were known, what kind of actions would be needed to maintain the positive aspects and reverse the negative ones? How could these actions be translated into the aims of EE? Three future scenarios are…

  4. Space resources. Volume 1: Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mckay, Mary Fae (Editor); Mckay, David S. (Editor); Duke, Michael B. (Editor)

    1992-01-01

    A number of possible future paths for space exploration and development are presented. The topics covered include the following: (1) the baseline program; (2) alternative scenarios utilizing nonterrestrial resources; (3) impacts of sociopolitical conditions; (4) common technologies; and issues for further study.

  5. Scenario Writing: A Therapeutic Application.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Haddock, Billy D.

    1989-01-01

    Introduces scenario writing as useful therapeutic technique. Presents case study of woman in midst of divorce and custody fight to illustrate context in which technique was applied. Suggests additional applications. Concludes that good response is more likely for clients who possess good writing skills although other clients may use their own…

  6. Daily relative humidity projections in an Indian river basin for IPCC SRES scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anandhi, Aavudai; Srinivas, V. V.; Kumar, D. Nagesh; Nanjundiah, Ravi S.

    2012-04-01

    A two-stage methodology is developed to obtain future projections of daily relative humidity in a river basin for climate change scenarios. In the first stage, Support Vector Machine (SVM) models are developed to downscale nine sets of predictor variables (large-scale atmospheric variables) for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (A1B, A2, B1, and COMMIT) to R H in a river basin at monthly scale. Uncertainty in the future projections of R H is studied for combinations of SRES scenarios, and predictors selected. Subsequently, in the second stage, the monthly sequences of R H are disaggregated to daily scale using k-nearest neighbor method. The effectiveness of the developed methodology is demonstrated through application to the catchment of Malaprabha reservoir in India. For downscaling, the probable predictor variables are extracted from the (1) National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalysis data set for the period 1978-2000 and (2) simulations of the third-generation Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model for the period 1978-2100. The performance of the downscaling and disaggregation models is evaluated by split sample validation. Results show that among the SVM models, the model developed using predictors pertaining to only land location performed better. The R H is projected to increase in the future for A1B and A2 scenarios, while no trend is discerned for B1 and COMMIT.

  7. Summary of student scenarios: 2020 Vision project, fiscal year 1997

    SciTech Connect

    Gordon, K.W.; Munoz, A.; Scott, K.P.; Rinne, R.

    1997-11-01

    The Strategic Issues Thinking: 2020 Vision project introduces students and teaches to national security issues through the techniques of scenario building, and engages them in an interactive process of creating scenarios relevant to the Department of Energy, Defense Programs (DOE/DP). Starting with the world as it is today, teams of students develop a series of scenarios on international developments over the next 25 years under various circumstances. This report identifies recurrent themes in the student`s scenarios, lists creative ways the students presented their scenarios, compares and contrasts the program`s FY97 results with FY96 results, identifies the benefits of the program, and offers a glimpse of Sandia`s future plans for the 2020 Vision project.

  8. Exploring NASA Human Spaceflight and Pioneering Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zapata, Edgar; Wilhite, Alan

    2015-01-01

    The life cycle cost analysis of space exploration scenarios is explored via a merger of (1) scenario planning, separating context and (2) modeling and analysis of specific content. Numerous scenarios are presented, leading to cross-cutting recommendations addressing life cycle costs, productivity, and approaches applicable to any scenarios. Approaches address technical and non-technical factors.

  9. Scenario Crisis Cases in Distance Learning Sessions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Antunes, A.

    2013-04-01

    We discuss early results using student-lead role-play of crises and disaster scenarios to encourage engagement in distance learning sessions. The disadvantage of distance learning via web interface—the lack of face-to-face and the ease with which a student can remain quiet—is balanced by the wealth of Internet-accessible media reports of past mission disasters. Capitol College minimizes the lecture component to simply frame each session's open-ended crisis in our Mission Operations engineering course. The students are presented with a historical ‘disaster’ but not its resolution; they present their course of action, then the lecturer steps in to debrief. With a wealth of past cases available on the web, use of scenarios rather than lectures shows early signs of being viable model for encouraging discussion and interaction within distance learning for a variety of course topics.

  10. Clinical Scenarios for Discordant Anti-Xa.

    PubMed

    Vera-Aguilera, Jesus; Yousef, Hindi; Beltran-Melgarejo, Diego; Teng, Teng Hugh; Jan, Ramos; Mok, Mary; Vera-Aguilera, Carlos; Moreno-Aguilera, Eduardo

    2016-01-01

    Anti-Xa test measures the activity of heparin against the activity of activated coagulation factor X; significant variability of anti-Xa levels in common clinical scenarios has been observed. Objective. To review the most common clinical settings in which anti-Xa results can be bias. Evidence Review. Guidelines and current literature search: we used PubMed, Medline, Embase, and MEDION, from 2000 to October 2013. Results. Anti-Xa test is widely used; however the assay underestimates heparin concentration in the presence of significant AT deficiency, pregnancy, end stage renal disease, and postthrombolysis and in patients with hyperbilirubinemia; limited published data evaluating the safety and effectiveness of anti-Xa assays for managing UH therapy is available. Conclusions and Relevance. To our knowledge this is the first paper that summarizes the most common causes in which this assay can be affected, several "day to day" clinical scenarios can modify the outcomes, and we concur that these rarely recognized scenarios can be affected by negative outcomes in the daily practice. PMID:27293440

  11. Clinical Scenarios for Discordant Anti-Xa

    PubMed Central

    Vera-Aguilera, Jesus; Yousef, Hindi; Beltran-Melgarejo, Diego; Teng, Teng Hugh; Jan, Ramos; Mok, Mary; Vera-Aguilera, Carlos; Moreno-Aguilera, Eduardo

    2016-01-01

    Anti-Xa test measures the activity of heparin against the activity of activated coagulation factor X; significant variability of anti-Xa levels in common clinical scenarios has been observed. Objective. To review the most common clinical settings in which anti-Xa results can be bias. Evidence Review. Guidelines and current literature search: we used PubMed, Medline, Embase, and MEDION, from 2000 to October 2013. Results. Anti-Xa test is widely used; however the assay underestimates heparin concentration in the presence of significant AT deficiency, pregnancy, end stage renal disease, and postthrombolysis and in patients with hyperbilirubinemia; limited published data evaluating the safety and effectiveness of anti-Xa assays for managing UH therapy is available. Conclusions and Relevance. To our knowledge this is the first paper that summarizes the most common causes in which this assay can be affected, several “day to day” clinical scenarios can modify the outcomes, and we concur that these rarely recognized scenarios can be affected by negative outcomes in the daily practice. PMID:27293440

  12. Scenarios of global mercury emissions from anthropogenic sources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rafaj, P.; Bertok, I.; Cofala, J.; Schöpp, W.

    2013-11-01

    This paper discusses the impact of air quality and climate policies on global mercury emissions in the time horizon up to 2050. Evolution of mercury emissions is based on projections of energy consumption for a scenario without any global greenhouse gas mitigation efforts, and for a 2 °C climate policy scenario, which assumes internationally coordinated action to mitigate climate change. The assessment takes into account current air quality legislation in each country, as well as provides estimates of maximum feasible reductions in mercury through 2050. Results indicate significant scope for co-benefits of climate policies for mercury emissions. Atmospheric releases of mercury from anthropogenic sources under the global climate mitigation regime are reduced in 2050 by 45% when compared to the case without climate measures. Around one third of world-wide co-benefits for mercury emissions by 2050 occur in China. An annual Hg-abatement of about 800 tons is estimated for the coal combustion in power sector if the current air pollution legislation and climate policies are adopted in parallel.

  13. A Native American exposure scenario.

    PubMed

    Harris, S G; Harper, B L

    1997-12-01

    EPA's Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund (RAGS) and later documents provide guidance for estimating exposures received from suburban and agricultural activity patterns and lifestyles. However, these methods are not suitable for typical tribal communities whose members pursue, at least in part, traditional lifestyles. These lifestyles are derived from a long association with all of the resources in a particular region. We interviewed 35 members of a Columbia River Basin tribe to develop a lifestyle-based subsistence exposure scenario that represents a midrange exposure that a traditional tribal member would receive. This scenario provides a way to partially satisfy Executive Order 12,898 on environmental justice, which requires a specific evaluation of impacts from federal actions to peoples with subsistence diets. Because a subsistence diet is only a portion of what is important to a traditional lifestyle, we also used information obtained from the interviews to identify parameters for evaluating impacts to environmental and sociocultural quality of life. PMID:9463932

  14. Base case and perturbation scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Edmunds, T

    1998-10-01

    This report describes fourteen energy factors that could affect electricity markets in the future (demand, process, source mix, etc.). These fourteen factors are believed to have the most influence on the State's energy environment. A base case, or most probable, characterization is given for each of these fourteen factors over a twenty year time horizon. The base case characterization is derived from quantitative and qualitative information provided by State of California government agencies, where possible. Federal government databases are nsed where needed to supplement the California data. It is envisioned that a initial selection of issue areas will be based upon an evaluation of them under base case conditions. For most of the fourteen factors, the report identities possible perturbations from base case values or assumptions that may be used to construct additional scenarios. Only those perturbations that are plausible and would have a significant effect on energy markets are included in the table. The fourteen factors and potential perturbations of the factors are listed in Table 1.1. These perturbations can be combined to generate internally consist.ent. combinations of perturbations relative to the base case. For example, a low natural gas price perturbation should be combined with a high natural gas demand perturbation. The factor perturbations are based upon alternative quantitative forecasts provided by other institutions (the Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration in some cases), changes in assumptions that drive the quantitative forecasts, or changes in assumptions about the structure of the California energy markets. The perturbations are intended to be used for a qualitative reexamination of issue areas after an initial evaluation under the base case. The perturbation information would be used as a "tiebreaker;" to make decisions regarding those issue areas that were marginally accepted or rejected under the base case. Hf a

  15. Uncertainty in Integrated Assessment Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Mort Webster

    2005-10-17

    trends from a model for uncertainty projections. The probability distributions of these critical model drivers, and the resulting uncertainty in projections from a range of models, can provide the basis of future emission scenario set designs.

  16. Predictive RANS simulations via Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging

    SciTech Connect

    Edeling, W.N.; Cinnella, P.; Dwight, R.P.

    2014-10-15

    The turbulence closure model is the dominant source of error in most Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes simulations, yet no reliable estimators for this error component currently exist. Here we develop a stochastic, a posteriori error estimate, calibrated to specific classes of flow. It is based on variability in model closure coefficients across multiple flow scenarios, for multiple closure models. The variability is estimated using Bayesian calibration against experimental data for each scenario, and Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging (BMSA) is used to collate the resulting posteriors, to obtain a stochastic estimate of a Quantity of Interest (QoI) in an unmeasured (prediction) scenario. The scenario probabilities in BMSA are chosen using a sensor which automatically weights those scenarios in the calibration set which are similar to the prediction scenario. The methodology is applied to the class of turbulent boundary-layers subject to various pressure gradients. For all considered prediction scenarios the standard-deviation of the stochastic estimate is consistent with the measurement ground truth. Furthermore, the mean of the estimate is more consistently accurate than the individual model predictions.

  17. Misrepresentation of the IPCC CO2 emission scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Manning, Martin; Edmonds, James A.; Emori, S.; Grubler, Arnulf; Hibbard, Kathleen A.; Joos, Fortunat; Kainuma, M.; Keeling, Ralph; Kram, Tom; Manning, Andrew; Meinhausen, Malte; Moss, Richard H.; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Riahi, Keywan; Rose, Steven K.; Smith, Steven J.; Swart, Robert; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2010-06-01

    Estimates of recent fossil fuel CO2 emissions have been compared with the IPCC SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission scenarios that had been developed for analysis of future climate change, impacts and mitigation. In some cases this comparison uses averages across subgroups of SRES scenarios and for one category of greenhouse gases (industrial sources of CO2). That approach can be misleading and cause confusion as it is inconsistent with many of the papers on future climate change projections that are based on a specific subset of closely scrutinized SRES scenarios, known as illustrative marker scenarios. Here, we show that comparison between recent estimates of fossil fuel emissions trends and the SRES illustrative marker scenarios leads to the conclusion that recent trends are not outside the SRES range. Furthermore, the recent economic downturn appears to have brought actual emission back toward the middle of the SRES illustrative marker scenarios. We also note that SRES emission scenarios are designed to reflect potential alternative long-term trends in a world without climate policy intervention and the trend in the resulting climate change is not sensitive to short-term fluctuations.

  18. Global Water Scarcity Assessment under Post-SRES Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hanasaki, N.; Fujimori, S.

    2011-12-01

    A large number of future projections contributed to the fourth Assessment Report of IPCC were based on Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). Processes toward the fifth Assessment Report are under way, and post-SRES scenarios, called Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) are being prepared. One of the key challenges of SSP is provision of detailed socio-economic scenarios compared to SRES for impact, adaptation and vulnerability studies. In this study, a comprehensive global water scarcity assessment was conducted, using a state of the art global water resources model H08 (Hanasaki et al., 2008a, 2008b, 2010). We used a prototype of SSP developed by National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan. Two sets of socio economic scenarios and two sets of climate scenarios were prepared to run H08 for the period 2001-2100. Socio-economic scenarios include Business As Usual and High Mitigation Capacity. Climate scenarios include Reference and Mitigation which stabilizes green house gas concentration at a certain level. We analyzed the simulation results of four combinations, particularly focusing on the sensitivity of socio-economic scenarios to major water resources indices.

  19. Designing Asteroid Impact Scenario Trajectories

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chodas, Paul

    2016-05-01

    In order to study some of the technical and geopolitical issues of dealing with an asteroid on impact trajectory, a number of hypothetical impact scenarios have been presented over the last ten years or so. These have been used, for example, at several of the Planetary Defense Conferences (PDCs), as well as in tabletop exercises with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), along with other government agencies. The exercise at the 2015 PDC involved most of the attendees, consisted of seven distinct steps (“injects”), and with all the presentations and discussions, took up nearly 10 hours of conference time. The trajectory for the PDC15 scenario was entirely realistic, and was posted ahead of the meeting. It was made available in the NEO Program’s Horizons ephemeris service so that users could , for example, design their own deflection missions. The simulated asteroid and trajectory had to meet numerous very exacting requirements: becoming observable on the very first day of the conference, yet remaining very difficult to observe for the following 7 years, and far enough away from Earth that it was out of reach of radar until just before impact. It had to be undetectable in the past, and yet provide multiple perihelion opportunities for deflection in the future. It had to impact in a very specific region of the Earth, a specific number of years after discovery. When observations of the asteroid are simulated to generate an uncertainty region, that entire region must impact the Earth along an axis that cuts across specific regions of the Earth, the “risk corridor”. This is important because asteroid deflections generally move an asteroid impact point along this corridor. One scenario had a requirement that the asteroid pass through a keyhole several years before impact. The PDC15 scenario had an additional constraint that multiple simulated kinetic impactor missions altered the trajectory at a deflection point midway between discovery and impact

  20. Tethered Capturing Scenarios in Low Earth Orbit

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keramati Nigjeh, Behzad; Trivailo, Pavel; Blanksby, Chris

    mode vibration in the tether directly after capture. Another beneficial capturing scenario is also studied in which the space debris could be captured by a capturing bag at the tip of the swinging tether and would be released in the backward phase of the swing. This results in reduction of the debris' momentum and guidance of the debris directly to the earth's atmosphere via a ballistic trajectory. Small to medium size, non- controllable debris flying in LEO orbits could be burned up in the Earth's atmosphere while part of their momentum could boost the ISS in this post-capture scenario. Two different counter recoiling control schemes are introduced for this scenario, which can prevent the elastic tether from recoiling back toward the platform after releasing its payload. These controllers work based on changing the length of the tether and controlling the tension and do not involve any thrusters as the actuators. The research presented in this paper can significantly assist in development and implementation of feasible tethered mass/momentum transfer space missions in near term, by introducing new and beneficial tethered space capturing scenarios using currently available technology and resources such as the International Space Station (ISS) as platform. The paper is focused on development of new concepts for post-capture and post-release tether control schemes required for these scenarios.

  1. Mars Scenario-Based Visioning: Logistical Optimization of Transportation Architectures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    1999-01-01

    The purpose of this conceptual design investigation is to examine transportation forecasts for future human Wu missions to Mars. - Scenario-Based Visioning is used to generate possible future demand projections. These scenarios are then coupled with availability, cost, and capacity parameters for indigenously designed Mars Transfer Vehicles (solar electric, nuclear thermal, and chemical propulsion types) and Earth-to-Orbit launch vehicles (current, future, and indigenous) to provide a cost-conscious dual-phase launch manifest to meet such future demand. A simulator named M-SAT (Mars Scenario Analysis Tool) is developed using this method. This simulation is used to examine three specific transportation scenarios to Mars: a limited "flaus and footprints" mission, a More ambitious scientific expedition similar to an expanded version of the Design Reference Mission from NASA, and a long-term colonization scenario. Initial results from the simulation indicate that chemical propulsion systems might be the architecture of choice for all three scenarios. With this mind, "what if' analyses were performed which indicated that if nuclear production costs were reduced by 30% for the colonization scenario, then the nuclear architecture would have a lower life cycle cost than the chemical. Results indicate that the most cost-effective solution to the Mars transportation problem is to plan for segmented development, this involves development of one vehicle at one opportunity and derivatives of that vehicle at subsequent opportunities.

  2. The Role of Perpetrator Motivation in Two Crime Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sizemore, O. J.

    2013-01-01

    Undergraduate volunteers (n = 134) were randomly assigned in a 2 x 2 design that manipulated type of crime (rape vs. robbery) and perpetrator motivation (anger vs. desire). After reading one of the crime scenarios, participants responded to a series of attitude items regarding responsibility for the crime, assigned blame to agents mentioned in the…

  3. Climate Change Technology Scenarios: Energy, Emissions, and Economic Implications

    SciTech Connect

    Placet, Marylynn; Humphreys, Kenneth K.; Mahasenan, N Maha

    2004-08-15

    This report describes three advanced technology scenarios and various illustrative cases developed by staff of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for the U.S. Climate Change Technology Program. These scenarios and illustrative cases explore the energy, emissions and economic implications of using advanced energy technologies and other climate change related technologies to reduce future emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). The cases were modeled using the Mini Climate Assessment Model (MiniCAM) developed by PNNL. The report describes the scenarios, the specifications for the cases, and the results. The report also provides background information on current emissions of GHGs and issues associated with stabilizing GHG concentrations.

  4. Ischemic preconditioning and clinical scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Narayanan, Srinivasan V.; Dave, Kunjan R.; Perez-Pinzon, Miguel A.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose of review Ischemic preconditioning (IPC) is gaining attention as a novel neuroprotective therapy and could provide an improved mechanistic understanding of tolerance to cerebral ischemia. The purpose of this article is to review the recent work in the field of IPC and its applications to clinical scenarios. Recent findings The cellular signaling pathways that are activated following IPC are now better understood and have enabled investigators to identify several IPC mimetics. Most of these studies were performed in rodents, and efficacy of these mimetics remains to be evaluated in human patients. Additionally, remote ischemic preconditioning (RIPC) may have higher translational value than IPC. Repeated cycles of temporary ischemia in a remote organ can activate protective pathways in the target organ, including the heart and brain. Clinical trials are underway to test the efficacy of RIPC in protecting brain against subarachnoid hemorrhage. Summary IPC, RIPC, and IPC mimetics have the potential to be therapeutic in various clinical scenarios. Further understanding of IPC-induced neuroprotection pathways and utilization of clinically relevant animal models are necessary to increase the translational potential of IPC in the near future. PMID:23197083

  5. Prophylaxis in real life scenarios.

    PubMed

    Fischer, K; Konkle, B; Broderick, C; Kessler, C M

    2014-05-01

    Prophylaxis has become the standard mantra of care for those individuals with severe haemophilia A and B. Primary prophylaxis is advocated to prevent the occurrence of symptomatic acute spontaneous haemarthroses and to preserve joint structure and function. Typically, twice or thrice weekly infusions of factor VIII or IX concentrates are integral to this treatment approach. Secondary prophylaxis is initiated after the relentless cycle of progressive joint damage has been triggered by prior haemarthroses and is intended to preserve existing joint health by preventing additional spontaneous bleeding events. Event-driven prophylaxis involves the administration of clotting factor concentrates to prevent acute traumatic bleeds, which are anticipated to occur in association with surgical or physical trauma. This regimen enhances the effectiveness of primary or secondary prophylaxis protocols or on-demand approaches to replacement therapy. Besides the marked reduction in the so-called annual bleed rate, prophylaxis regimens frequently increase personal self-confidence to embark on a more active and physical lifestyle; however, in reality, prophylaxis must be individualized in accordance with bleeding phenotypes, with the unique pharmacokinetic profile of administered replacement clotting factor concentrates, with the specific clinical scenario, and with the degree of intensity anticipated for any physical activity. The introduction of extended half-life replacement products will also influence how these prophylaxis regimens will be accomplished. The following scenarios will discuss how prophylaxis regimens can be implemented to protect the individual from developing spontaneous and activity-induced acute bleeding complications and to maintain an improved quality of life.

  6. Methodological issues in product evaluation: the influence of testing environment and task scenario.

    PubMed

    Sauer, Juergen; Sonderegger, Andreas

    2011-03-01

    This article examines the utility of two commonly used approaches in the evaluation of interactive consumer products: lab-based testing and single task scenarios. These are compared to two more complex and resource-demanding approaches (field-based testing and dual task scenarios) with regard to the test results they produce. An experiment with N = 80 users was carried out, employing a 2 (laboratory vs. field) by 2 (single task vs. dual task scenario) by 2 (on-product information: present vs. absent) between-subjects design. On-product information (advising users to save water and electricity during kettle usage) represented the intervention, of which the effects on user behaviour were compared under the different experimental conditions. The main finding was that the impact of on-product information on user behaviour was strongest in the lab-based testing environment using a single task scenario (i.e., most economical testing condition), compared to the three other experimental conditions. The work found similar effects for self-report measures. The findings of the study point to the risk that the effects of system redesign on user behaviour may be overestimated if low-fidelity testing approaches are employed. The relevance of these findings for other application areas is also discussed (e.g., design of warnings).

  7. Braneworld Scenarios from Deformed Defect Chains

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chinaglia, M.; Bernardini, A. E.; da Rocha, Roldão

    2016-10-01

    Novel braneworld scenarios supported by warp factors driven by a single extra dimension are obtained from deformed one-dimensional lump-like solutions known a priori. Through a novel ansatz, the internal energy structure, the braneworld warp factor, and the quantum mechanical analogue problem, as well as the associated zero mode solutions, are straightforwardly derived by means of an analytical procedure. The results allow one to identify thick brane solutions that support internal structures and that can hold the (3+1)-dimensional gravity.

  8. Cosmological structure problem of the ekpyrotic scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hwang, Jai-Chan

    2002-03-01

    We address the perturbation power spectrum generated in the recently proposed ekpyrotic scenario by Khoury et al. The issue has been raised recently by Lyth who used the conventional method based on a conserved variable in the large-scale limit, and derived different results from Khoury et al. The calculation is straightforward in the uniform-curvature gauge where the generated blue spectrum with a suppressed amplitude survives as the final spectrum. Whereas, although the metric fluctuations become unimportant and a scale-invariant spectrum is generated in the zero-shear gauge, the mode does not survive the bounce, but has the same final result. Therefore, an exponential potential leads to a power-law expansion or contraction a~\\|t\\|p, and the power p dictates the final power spectra of both the scalar and tensor structures. If p<<1 as one realization of the ekpyrotic scenario suggests, the results are nS-1~=2~=nT and the amplitude of the scalar perturbation is suppressed relative to that of the gravitational wave by a factor (p)/2. Both results confirm Lyth's. An observation is made on the constraint on the dynamics of the seed generating stage from the requirement of a scale-invariant spectrum.

  9. Scenario Development for the Southwestern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahmoud, M.; Gupta, H.; Stewart, S.; Liu, Y.; Hartmann, H.; Wagener, T.

    2006-12-01

    The primary goal of employing a scenario development approach for the U.S. southwest is to inform regional policy by examining future possibilities related to regional vegetation change, water-leasing, and riparian restoration. This approach is necessary due to a lack of existing explicit water resources application of scenarios to the entire southwest region. A formal approach for scenario development is adopted and applied towards water resources issues within the arid and semi-arid regions of the U.S. southwest following five progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. In the scenario definition phase, the inputs of scientists, modelers, and stakeholders were collected in order to define and construct relevant scenarios to the southwest and its water sustainability needs. From stakeholder-driven scenario workshops and breakout sessions, the three main axes of principal change were identified to be climate change, population development patterns, and quality of information monitoring technology. Based on the extreme and varying conditions of these three main axes, eight scenario narratives were drafted to describe the state of each scenario's respective future and the events which led to it. Events and situations are described within each scenario narrative with respect to key variables; variables that are both important to regional water resources (as distinguished by scientists and modelers), and are good tracking and monitoring indicators of change. The current phase consists of scenario construction, where the drafted scenarios are re-presented to regional scientists and modelers to verify that proper key variables are included (or excluded) from the eight narratives. The next step is to construct the data sets necessary to implement the eight scenarios on the respective computational models of modelers investigating vegetation change, water-leasing, and riparian

  10. Climate Change Scenarios in the Yucatan Peninsula to the year 2020

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Orellana, R.; Espadas, C.; Conde, C.; Gay, C.

    2010-03-01

    A topic that has not been sufficiently analyzed is that the global warming is already affecting, and that it will have worst consequences in those regions with transitional climates, which have more sensibility to changes. This is the case of the Yucatan Peninsula which is semi-arid in their northern portion, and toward the south is subhumid, with a tendency to be more rainy toward the south. To have an estimation of what could happen in the future, the Intergovernmental Panel of Climatic Change (IPCC) has promoted the use of General Circulation Models (GCM), as well as the construction of possible emission scenarios that integrate different global and regional socioeconomic and demographic conditions, which project then a possible increase of emissions of greenhouse gases. These conditions are recognized as the decisive forces that will determine the variations of temperature and of precipitation. These projections are useful for the analysis of climatic change, and in particular for the assessments of the possible impacts and of the initiatives of adaptation and of mitigation that should be implemented in every country or region. In Mexico, most of those evaluations of climate change have been carried out generally at country level. For that reason, it is necessary to direct the research at regional level. In this work, we evaluated the potential climatic changes on the Yucatan Peninsula, considering the different changes of temperature and precipitation as a consequence for different emission scenarios and for the horizon 2020. To project the environmental responses of the region, we used as a base scenario the available temperature and precipitation information of the period 1961-1990, registered in 85 meteorological stations of the peninsula. With these data, we generated climate change scenarios using the outputs of four General Circulation Models: HADLEY, ECHAM, GFDL and CGCM, and the emission scenarios A1FI, A2, B1 and B2. The outputs of these models were

  11. Viability of the Matter Bounce Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Haro, Jaume; Amorós, Jaume

    2015-04-01

    It is shown that teleparallel F(T) theories of gravity combined with Loop Quantum Cosmology support a Matter Bounce Scenario which is an alternative to the inflation scenario in the Big Bang paradigm. It is checked that these bouncing models provide theoretical data that fits well with the current observational data, allowing the viability of the Matter Bounce Scenario.

  12. Development of advanced inductive scenarios for ITER

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luce, T. C.; Challis, C. D.; Ide, S.; Joffrin, E.; Kamada, Y.; Politzer, P. A.; Schweinzer, J.; Sips, A. C. C.; Stober, J.; Giruzzi, G.; Kessel, C. E.; Murakami, M.; Na, Y.-S.; Park, J. M.; Polevoi, A. R.; Budny, R. V.; Citrin, J.; Garcia, J.; Hayashi, N.; Hobirk, J.; Hudson, B. F.; Imbeaux, F.; Isayama, A.; McDonald, D. C.; Nakano, T.; Oyama, N.; Parail, V. V.; Petrie, T. W.; Petty, C. C.; Suzuki, T.; Wade, M. R.; the ITPA Integrated Operation Scenario Topical Group Members; the ASDEX-Upgrade Team; the DIII-D Team; EFDA Contributors, JET; the JT-60U Team

    2014-01-01

    Since its inception in 2002, the International Tokamak Physics Activity topical group on Integrated Operational Scenarios (IOS) has coordinated experimental and modelling activity on the development of advanced inductive scenarios for applications in the ITER tokamak. The physics basis and the prospects for applications in ITER have been advanced significantly during that time, especially with respect to experimental results. The principal findings of this research activity are as follows. Inductive scenarios capable of higher normalized pressure (βN ⩾ 2.4) than the ITER baseline scenario (βN = 1.8) with normalized confinement at or above the standard H-mode scaling are well established under stationary conditions on the four largest diverted tokamaks (AUG, DIII-D, JET, JT-60U), demonstrated in a database of more than 500 plasmas from these tokamaks analysed here. The parameter range where high performance is achieved is broad in q95 and density normalized to the empirical density limit. MHD modes can play a key role in reaching stationary high performance, but also define the limits to achieved stability and confinement. Projection of performance in ITER from existing experiments uses empirical scalings and theory-based modelling. The status of the experimental validation of both approaches is summarized here. The database shows significant variation in the energy confinement normalized to standard H-mode confinement scalings, indicating the possible influence of additional physics variables absent from the scalings. Tests using the available information on rotation and the ratio of the electron and ion temperatures indicate neither of these variables in isolation can explain the variation in normalized confinement observed. Trends in the normalized confinement with the two dimensionless parameters that vary most from present-day experiments to ITER, gyroradius and collision frequency, are significant. Regression analysis on the multi-tokamak database has been

  13. Science for decision making: Transmitting hazard science using catastrophic scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wein, A.

    2010-12-01

    -motivated individuals who took on leadership roles in their communities or industrial sectors), customized and localized analyses, and workshops enhanced the use of hazard science. Examples from the two scenarios will be used to illustrate these points. We experienced several significant challenges in using science to enhance emergency management exercises and community decision making. Some of these challenges include 1) adapting scientific results to exercise format; 2) the special needs of recovery exercises, which can mimic response exercises only with limited success, because recovery is tactical while response is strategic; 3) staff turnover; and 4) limited resources. An important future direction will be to leverage our in-depth knowledge of scenarios, multi-disciplinary network, and stakeholder relations to integrate knowledge about multiple hazards to better inform risk-based decision making for all hazards.

  14. Methods for Developing Emissions Scenarios for Integrated Assessment Models

    SciTech Connect

    Prinn, Ronald; Webster, Mort

    2007-08-20

    The overall objective of this research was to contribute data and methods to support the future development of new emissions scenarios for integrated assessment of climate change. Specifically, this research had two main objectives: 1. Use historical data on economic growth and energy efficiency changes, and develop probability density functions (PDFs) for the appropriate parameters for two or three commonly used integrated assessment models. 2. Using the parameter distributions developed through the first task and previous work, we will develop methods of designing multi-gas emission scenarios that usefully span the joint uncertainty space in a small number of scenarios. Results on the autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI) parameter are summarized, an uncertainty analysis of elasticities of substitution is described, and the probabilistic emissions scenario approach is presented.

  15. Developing a Scenario for widespread use: Best practices, lessons learned

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Perry, S.; Jones, L.; Cox, D.

    2011-01-01

    The ShakeOut Scenario is probably the most widely known and used earthquake scenario created to date. Much of the credit for its widespread dissemination and application lies with scenario development criteria that focused on the needs and involvement of end users and with a suite of products that tailored communication of the results to varied end users, who ranged from emergency managers to the general public, from corporations to grassroots organizations. Products were most effective when they were highly visual, when they emphasized the findings of social scientists, and when they communicated the experience of living through the earthquake. This paper summarizes the development criteria and the products that made the ShakeOut Scenario so widely known and used, and it provides some suggestions for future improvements. ?? 2011, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  16. Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century.

    PubMed

    Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Rolinski, Susanne; Biewald, Anne; Weindl, Isabelle; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann

    2015-01-01

    Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries.

  17. Improving risk assessment by defining consistent and reliable system scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mazzorana, B.; Hübl, J.; Fuchs, S.

    2009-02-01

    During the entire procedure of risk assessment for hydrologic hazards, the selection of consistent and reliable scenarios, constructed in a strictly systematic way, is fundamental for the quality and reproducibility of the results. However, subjective assumptions on relevant impact variables such as sediment transport intensity on the system loading side and weak point response mechanisms repeatedly cause biases in the results, and consequently affect transparency and required quality standards. Furthermore, the system response of mitigation measures to extreme event loadings represents another key variable in hazard assessment, as well as the integral risk management including intervention planning. Formative Scenario Analysis, as a supplement to conventional risk assessment methods, is a technique to construct well-defined sets of assumptions to gain insight into a specific case and the potential system behaviour. By two case studies, carried out (1) to analyse sediment transport dynamics in a torrent section equipped with control measures, and (2) to identify hazards induced by woody debris transport at hydraulic weak points, the applicability of the Formative Scenario Analysis technique is presented. It is argued that during scenario planning in general and with respect to integral risk management in particular, Formative Scenario Analysis allows for the development of reliable and reproducible scenarios in order to design more specifically an application framework for the sustainable assessment of natural hazards impact. The overall aim is to optimise the hazard mapping and zoning procedure by methodologically integrating quantitative and qualitative knowledge.

  18. Project Icarus: Stakeholder Scenarios for an Interstellar Exploration Program

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hein, A. M.; Tziolas, A. C.; Osborne, R.

    The Project Icarus Study Group's objective is to design a mainly fusion-propelled interstellar probe. The starting point are the results of the Daedalus study, which was conducted by the British Interplanetary Society during the 1970's. As the Daedalus study already indicated, interstellar probes will be the result of a large scale, decade-long development program. To sustain a program over such long periods, the commitment of key stakeholders is vital. Although previous publications identified political and societal preconditions to an interstellar exploration program, there is a lack of more specific scientific and political stakeholder scenarios. This paper develops stakeholder scenarios which allow for a more detailed sustainability assessment of future programs. For this purpose, key stakeholder groups and their needs are identified and scientific and political scenarios derived. Political scenarios are based on patterns of past space programs but unprecedented scenarios are considered as well. Although it is very difficult to sustain an interstellar exploration program, there are scenarios in which this seems to be possible, e.g. the discovery of life within the solar system and on an exoplanet, a global technology development program, and dual-use of technologies for defence and security purposes. This is a submission of the Project Icarus Study Group.

  19. Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century

    PubMed Central

    Biewald, Anne; Weindl, Isabelle; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann

    2015-01-01

    Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries. PMID:26536124

  20. Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century.

    PubMed

    Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Rolinski, Susanne; Biewald, Anne; Weindl, Isabelle; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann

    2015-01-01

    Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries. PMID:26536124

  1. Nowhere to invade: Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia projected to disappear under future climate scenarios.

    PubMed

    Xu, Zhonglin; Feng, Zhaodong; Yang, Jianjun; Zheng, Jianghua; Zhang, Fang

    2013-01-01

    Future climate change has been predicted to affect the potential distribution of plant species. However, only few studies have addressed how invasive species may respond to future climate change despite the known effects of plant species invasion on nutrient cycles, ecosystem functions, and agricultural yields. In this study, we predicted the potential distributions of two invasive species, Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia, under current and future (2050) climatic conditions. Future climate scenarios considered in our study include A1B, A2, A2A, B1, and B2A. We found that these two species will lose their habitat under the A1B, A2, A2A, and B1 scenarios. Their distributions will be maintained under future climatic conditions related to B2A scenarios, but the total area will be less than 10% of that under the current climatic condition. We also investigated variations of the most influential climatic variables that are likely to cause habitat loss of the two species. Our results demonstrate that rising mean annual temperature, variations of the coldest quarter, and precipitation of the coldest quarter are the main factors contributing to habitat loss of R. crispus. For T. latifolia, the main factors are rising mean annual temperature, variations in temperature of the coldest quarter, mean annual precipitation, and precipitation of the coldest quarter. These results demonstrate that the warmer and wetter climatic conditions of the coldest season (or month) will be mainly responsible for habitat loss of R. crispus and T. latifolia in the future. We also discuss uncertainties related to our study (and similar studies) and suggest that particular attention should be directed toward the manner in which invasive species cope with rapid climate changes because evolutionary change can be rapid for species that invade new areas.

  2. Nowhere to Invade: Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia Projected to Disappear under Future Climate Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Xu, Zhonglin; Feng, Zhaodong; Yang, Jianjun; Zheng, Jianghua; Zhang, Fang

    2013-01-01

    Future climate change has been predicted to affect the potential distribution of plant species. However, only few studies have addressed how invasive species may respond to future climate change despite the known effects of plant species invasion on nutrient cycles, ecosystem functions, and agricultural yields. In this study, we predicted the potential distributions of two invasive species, Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia, under current and future (2050) climatic conditions. Future climate scenarios considered in our study include A1B, A2, A2A, B1, and B2A. We found that these two species will lose their habitat under the A1B, A2, A2A, and B1 scenarios. Their distributions will be maintained under future climatic conditions related to B2A scenarios, but the total area will be less than 10% of that under the current climatic condition. We also investigated variations of the most influential climatic variables that are likely to cause habitat loss of the two species. Our results demonstrate that rising mean annual temperature, variations of the coldest quarter, and precipitation of the coldest quarter are the main factors contributing to habitat loss of R. crispus. For T. latifolia, the main factors are rising mean annual temperature, variations in temperature of the coldest quarter, mean annual precipitation, and precipitation of the coldest quarter. These results demonstrate that the warmer and wetter climatic conditions of the coldest season (or month) will be mainly responsible for habitat loss of R. crispus and T. latifolia in the future. We also discuss uncertainties related to our study (and similar studies) and suggest that particular attention should be directed toward the manner in which invasive species cope with rapid climate changes because evolutionary change can be rapid for species that invade new areas. PMID:23923020

  3. Assessment of land degradation susceptibility by scenario analysis. A case study in Southern Tuscany, Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maerker, Michael; Angeli, Luca; Bottai, Lorenzo; Innocenti, Lucia; Sicilliano, Giuseppina

    2010-05-01

    In the Mediterranean area land degradation phenomena are becoming more and more important due to future climate change and increasing climate variability as highlighted in recent global assessment projects such as the "Millennium Ecosystem Assessment" or "The Dialogue on water and Climate". Thus, there are consistent evidences that extreme events such as droughts and floods are more frequent than before. On the other hand the Mediterranean area is strongly influenced by human activities such as cultivations over hundreds of years. However, in the last decades the cultivation methods and techniques are subject to profound changes such as mechanization, use of fertilizer and pesticides, remodellation of entire hillslopes etc.. This particular situation leads to, and aggravates the existing stress on land resources. As a result, land degradation and soil erosion phenomena are leading to decreasing soil productivity or the loss of fertile top soil and related water quality and quantity issues. The aim of this paper is to assess land degradation sensitivity by scenario analysis. As a proxi for land degradation surface wash erosion processes such as rill-interill erosion processes are chosen. This present day processes are identified by aerial photo interpretation and subsequently modelled with a simple RUSLE approach on a monthly basis. In this study boundary conditions such as future precipitation were taken form the A2 future climate scenario published by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) - Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). Moreover, current landuse was identified from aerial photographs and future land use scenarios were developed considering ecological and socio-economical issues for present day conditions of the test area. Subsequently, the different climate and landuse scenarios were analysed to study soil erosion susceptibility on the landscape scale. The study shows that even with a decline in precipitation volume till 2070, in some

  4. 46,XY disorder of sexual development resulting from a novel monoallelic mutation (p.Ser31Phe) in the steroid 5α-reductase type-2 (SRD5A2) gene

    PubMed Central

    Chávez, Bertha; Ramos, Luis; Gómez, Rita; Vilchis, Felipe

    2014-01-01

    Inactivating mutations of the 5α-steroid reductase type-2 (SRD5A2) gene result in a broad spectrum of masculinization defects, ranging from a male phenotype with hypospadias to a female phenotype with Wolffian structures. Molecular studies of the SRD5A2 revealed a new heterozygous gene variant within the coding region that results in phenotypic expression. A c.92C>T transition changing serine to phenylalanine at codon 31 of exon 1 (p.Ser31Phe) was identified in a patient with 46,XY disorder of sexual development who displayed glandular hypospadias with micropenis and bilateral cryptorchidism. The restoration of the p.Ser31Phe mutation by site-directed mutagenesis and transient expression assays using cultured HEK-293 cells showed that this novel substitution does not abolish but does deregulate the catalytic efficiency of the enzyme. Thus, the maximum velocity (Vmax) value was higher for the mutant enzyme (22.5 ± 6.9 nmol DHT mg protein−1 h−1) than for the wild-type enzyme (9.8 ± 2.0 nmol DHT mg protein−1 h−1). Increased in vitro activity of the p.Ser31Phe mutant suggested an activating effect. This case provides evidence that heterozygous missense mutations in SRD5A2 may induce the abnormal development of male external genitalia. PMID:25077171

  5. Climate change scenarios and key climate indices in the Swiss Alpine region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zubler, Elias; Croci-Maspoli, Mischa; Frei, Christoph; Liniger, Mark; Scherrer, Simon; Appenzeller, Christof

    2013-04-01

    For climate adaption and to support climate mitigation policy it is of outermost importance to demonstrate the consequences of climate change on a local level and in user oriented quantities. Here, a framework is presented to apply the Swiss national climate change scenarios CH2011 to climate indices with direct relevance to applications, such as tourism, transportation, agriculture and health. This framework provides results on a high spatial and temporal resolution and can also be applied in mountainous regions such as the Alps. Results are shown for some key indices, such as the number of summer days and tropical nights, growing season length, number of frost days, heating and cooling degree days, and the number of days with fresh snow. Particular focus is given to changes in the vertical distribution for the future periods 2020-2049, 2045-2074 and 2070-2099 relative to the reference period 1980-2009 for the A1B, A2 and RCP3PD scenario. The number of days with fresh snow is approximated using a combination of temperature and precipitation as proxies. Some findings for the latest scenario period are: (1) a doubling of the number of summer days by the end of the century under the business-as-usual scenario A2, (2) tropical nights appear above 1500 m asl, (3) the number of frost days may be reduced by more than 3 months at altitudes higher than 2500 m, (4) an overall reduction of heating degree days of about 30% by the end of the century, but on the other hand an increase in cooling degree days in warm seasons, and (5) the number of days with fresh snow tends to go towards zero at low altitudes. In winter, there is little change in snowfall above 2000 m asl (roughly -3 days) in all scenarios. The largest impact on snowfall is found along the Northern Alpine flank and the Jura (-10 days or roughly -50% in A1B for the winter season). It is also highlighted that the future projections for all indices strongly depend on the chosen scenario and on model uncertainty

  6. Biomass Scenario Model Documentation: Data and References

    SciTech Connect

    Lin, Y.; Newes, E.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.; Stright, D.

    2013-05-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model that represents the entire biomass-to-biofuels supply chain, from feedstock to fuel use. The BSM is a complex model that has been used for extensive analyses; the model and its results can be better understood if input data used for initialization and calibration are well-characterized. It has been carefully validated and calibrated against the available data, with data gaps filled in using expert opinion and internally consistent assumed values. Most of the main data sources that feed into the model are recognized as baseline values by the industry. This report documents data sources and references in Version 2 of the BSM (BSM2), which only contains the ethanol pathway, although subsequent versions of the BSM contain multiple conversion pathways. The BSM2 contains over 12,000 total input values, with 506 distinct variables. Many of the variables are opportunities for the user to define scenarios, while others are simply used to initialize a stock, such as the initial number of biorefineries. However, around 35% of the distinct variables are defined by external sources, such as models or reports. The focus of this report is to provide insight into which sources are most influential in each area of the supply chain.

  7. Type Ia Supernova Models and Progenitor Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nomoto, Ken'ichi; Kamiya, Yasuomi; Nakasato, Naohito

    2013-01-01

    We review some recent developments in theoretical studies on the connection between the progenitor systems of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) and the explosion mechanisms. (1) DD-subCh: In the merging of double C+O white dwarfs (DD scenario), if the carbon detonation is induced near the white dwarf (WD) surface in the early dynamical phase, it could result in the (effectively) sub-Chandrasekhar mass explosion. (2) DD-Ch: If no surface C-detonation is ignited, the WD could grow until the Chandrasekhar mass is reached, but the outcome depends on whether the quiescent carbon shell burning is ignited and burns C+O into O+Ne+Mg. (3) SD-subCh: In the single degenerate (SD) scenario, if the He shell-flashes grow strong to induce a He detonation, it leads to the sub-Chandra explosion. (4) SD-Ch: If the He-shell flashes are not strong enough, they still produce interesting amounts of Si and S near the surface of the C+O WD before the explosion. In the Chandra mass explosion, the central density is high enough to produce electron capture elements, e.g., stable 58Ni. Observations of the emission lines of Ni in the nebular spectra provides useful diagnostics of the sub-Chandra vs. Chandra issue. The recent observations of relatively low velocity carbon near the surface of SNe Ia provide also an interesting constraint on the explosion models.

  8. Emergent universe in the braneworld scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heydarzade, Y.; Hadi, H.; Darabi, F.; Sheykhi, A.

    2016-06-01

    According to Padmanabhan's proposal, the difference between the surface degrees of freedom and the bulk degrees of freedom in a region of space may result in the acceleration of Universe expansion through the relation Δ V/Δ t = N_sur-N_bulk where N_bulk and N_sur are referred to the degrees of freedom related to the matter and energy content inside the bulk and surface area, respectively (Padmanabhan, arXiv:1206.4916v1, 2012). In this paper, we study the dynamical effect of the extrinsic geometrical embedding of an arbitrary four-dimensional brane in a higher-dimensional bulk space and investigate the corresponding degrees of freedom. Considering the modification of the Friedmann equations arising from a general braneworld scenario, we obtain a correction term in Padmanabhan's relation, denoting the number of degrees of freedom related to the extrinsic geometry of the brane embedded in higher-dimensional spacetime as Δ V /Δ t=N_sur-N_bulk-N_extr where N_extr is for the degree of freedom related to the extrinsic geometry of the brane, while N_sur and N_bulk are defined as before. Finally, we study the validity of the first and second laws of thermodynamics for this general braneworld scenario in the state of thermal equilibrium and in the presence of confined matter fields to the brane with the induced geometric matter fields.

  9. Innovations in science and scenarios for assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Moss, Richard; Parris, Adam

    2015-08-29

    Scenarios for the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3) were produced for physical climate and sea level rise with substantial input from disciplinary and regional experts. These scenarios underwent extensive review and were published as NOAA Technical Reports. For land use/cover and socioeconomic conditions, scenarios already developed by other agencies were specified for use in the NCA3. Efforts to enhance participatory scenario planning as an assessment activity were pursued, but with limited success. Issues and challenges included the timing of availability of scenarios, the need for guidance in use of scenarios, the need for approaches to nest information within multiple scales and sectors, engagement and collaboration of end users in scenario development, and development of integrated scenarios. Future assessments would benefit from an earlier start to scenarios development, the provision of training in addition to guidance documents, new and flexible approaches for nesting information, ongoing engagement and advice from both scientific and end user communities, and the development of consistent and integrated scenarios.

  10. A Methodology for Integrated, Multiregional Life Cycle Assessment Scenarios under Large-Scale Technological Change.

    PubMed

    Gibon, Thomas; Wood, Richard; Arvesen, Anders; Bergesen, Joseph D; Suh, Sangwon; Hertwich, Edgar G

    2015-09-15

    Climate change mitigation demands large-scale technological change on a global level and, if successfully implemented, will significantly affect how products and services are produced and consumed. In order to anticipate the life cycle environmental impacts of products under climate mitigation scenarios, we present the modeling framework of an integrated hybrid life cycle assessment model covering nine world regions. Life cycle assessment databases and multiregional input-output tables are adapted using forecasted changes in technology and resources up to 2050 under a 2 °C scenario. We call the result of this modeling "technology hybridized environmental-economic model with integrated scenarios" (THEMIS). As a case study, we apply THEMIS in an integrated environmental assessment of concentrating solar power. Life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions for this plant range from 33 to 95 g CO2 eq./kWh across different world regions in 2010, falling to 30-87 g CO2 eq./kWh in 2050. Using regional life cycle data yields insightful results. More generally, these results also highlight the need for systematic life cycle frameworks that capture the actual consequences and feedback effects of large-scale policies in the long term.

  11. Atlantic Hurricanes in Future Scenarios and Associated Insurance Losses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kleppek, S.; Wüest, M.; Raible, C. C.; Kitoh, A.; Murakami, H.; Stocker, T. F.; Muccione, V.; Bresch, D. N.

    2009-04-01

    The hurricane season 2005 in the Atlantic was the most intense season since the first records with 28 tropical storms of which 15 reached hurricane character (Trenberth and Shea, 2006). Although this year is considered to be an outlier, a substantial increase of the activity of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the tropical Atlantic over the last decades is documented (Sriver and Huber, 2006; Hoyos et al., 2006; Webster et al. 2005; Emanuel, 2005). The role of the sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic for the tropical storm activity was discussed already in Emanuel (2005) and Hoyos et al. (2006). Future changes of TC activity is currently under debate (e. g. Bengston et al., 2007). We contribute to this by applying our TC detection and tracking method which was developed for ERA-40 data (Kleppek et al., 2008) to time-slice experiments of two models: The ECHAM5 atmospheric model (MPI, Hamburg, Germany) and the 20 km-mesh, high resolution AGCM (MRI, Tsukuba-city, Japan). From each model two climate simulations are available: For the ECHAM5 a control run for the period 1960-90 and a SRES A2 scenario run for the period 2070-2100 and for the Mesh-AGCM a 20 years run with present day conditions and a 20 years run with end-of-21-century A2 conditions. To estimate losses of the ECHAM5- and Mesh-model hurricanes on the US coast, we have developed probabilistic hurricane event sets which are used as input for catXos, the loss model of the Swiss Reinsurance Company. Preliminary results show higher wind speeds of the ECHAM5 scenario run hurricanes than in the control run, but the numbers of the hurricanes of Saffir-Simpson-scale 2 to 4 show no clear difference between the control and scenario run of ECHAM5. Even though the resolution of the simulation is rather high no hurricanes of Saffir-Simpson-scale 5 are detected. The total number of TCs decreases for the scenario run. This applies as much to the TCs over the Atlantic as over the US-coast. References: Bengston L., K

  12. Transportation accident scenarios for commercial spent fuel

    SciTech Connect

    Wilmot, E L

    1981-02-01

    A spectrum of high severity, low probability, transportation accident scenarios involving commercial spent fuel is presented together with mechanisms, pathways and quantities of material that might be released from spent fuel to the environment. These scenarios are based on conclusions from a workshop, conducted in May 1980 to discuss transportation accident scenarios, in which a group of experts reviewed and critiqued available literature relating to spent fuel behavior and cask response in accidents.

  13. MIOSAT Mission Scenario and Design

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agostara, C.; Dionisio, C.; Sgroi, G.; di Salvo, A.

    2008-08-01

    MIOSAT ("Mssione Ottica su microSATellite") is a low-cost technological / scientific microsatellite mission for Earth Observation, funded by Italian Space Agency (ASI) and managed by a Group Agreement between Rheinmetall Italia - B.U. Spazio - Contraves as leader and Carlo Gavazzi Space as satellite manufacturer. Several others Italians Companies, SME and Universities are involved in the development team with crucial roles. MIOSAT is a microsatellite weighting around 120 kg and placed in a 525 km altitude sun-synchronuos circular LEO orbit. The microsatellite embarks three innovative optical payloads: Sagnac multi spectral radiometer (IFAC-CNR), Mach Zehender spectrometer (IMM-CNR), high resolution pancromatic camera (Selex Galileo). In addition three technological experiments will be tested in-flight. The first one is an heat pipe based on Marangoni effect with high efficiency. The second is a high accuracy Sun Sensor using COTS components and the last is a GNSS SW receiver that utilizes a Leon2 processor. Finally a new generation of 28% efficiency solar cells will be adopted for the power generation. The platform is highly agile and can tilt along and cross flight direction. The pointing accuracy is in the order of 0,1° for each axe. The pointing determination during images acquisition is <0,02° for the axis normal to the boresight and 0,04° for the boresight. This paper deals with MIOSAT mission scenario and definition, highlighting trade-offs for mission implementation. MIOSAT mission design has been constrained from challenging requirements in terms of satellite mass, mission lifetime, instrument performance, that have implied the utilization of satellite agility capability to improve instruments performance in terms of S/N and resolution. The instruments provide complementary measurements that can be combined in effective ways to exploit new applications in the fields of atmosphere composition analysis, Earth emissions, antropic phenomena, etc. The Mission

  14. From Scenarios to Test Implementations Via Promela

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ulrich, Andreas; Alikacem, El-Hachemi; Hallal, Hesham H.; Boroday, Sergiy

    We report on a tool for generating executable concurrent tests from scenarios specified as message sequence charts. The proposed approach features three steps: 1) Deriving a MSC test implementation from a MSC scenario, 2) Mapping the test implementation into a Promela model, 3) Generating executable test scripts in Java. The generation of an intermediate Promela model allows for model-checking to inspect the test implementation for properties like soundness, fault detection power as well as for consistency checking between different test scenarios. Moreover decoupling the executable test scripts from the scenario specification makes it possible to use different backend code generators to support other scripting languages when needed.

  15. Assessement of user needs for climate change scenarios in Switzerland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fischer, Andreas; Liniger, Mark; Flückiger-Knutti, Jacqueline

    2016-04-01

    There is a growing demand to assess and inform about future climate change and its impacts on society and ecosystems and to deduce appropriate adaptation strategies. The basis for such assessments are reliable and up-to-date climate change scenarios on the local to regional scale. In Switzerland, an important step has been accomplished by the release of the climate scenarios in 2011 ("CH2011"). New climate model simulations, an improved scientific understanding and new statistical downscaling tools make an update of these scenarios necessary. An important component toward the new national scenarios "CH2018" are the consideration of user needs in order to ensure that the new scenarios are user-tailored and hence find a wide applicability. The new CH2018 scenarios are developed in the framework of the recently founded National Center for Climate Services (NCCS). To get a better overview of who the users of climate scenarios are and what they need, a comprehensive market research was undertaken. The survey targeted the most climate-relevant sectors, and considered representatives from administration, research and private companies across Switzerland. The survey comprised several qualitative group interviews with key stakeholders, as well as a written questionaire, answered by more than one hundred users. Additionally, two workshops were organized to gather the needs in dissemination of climate scenarios. The results of the survey show the necessity to classify the user needs according to the level of usage: "intensive users" are mainly researchers who handle large climate scenario data for further use in subsequent impact studies; "extensive users" are usually from administrations or consulting companies and perform simple calculations for specific questions or use provided graphics and tables; "facilitators" are usually from media, NGOs or schools and process and disseminate scenario information for a specific target group. The less intensive the usage of climate

  16. Judgments of culpability in a filicide scenario.

    PubMed

    Ferguson, Christopher J; Miller-Stratton, Heather; Heinrich, Emily; Fritz, Stacey; Smith, Shawn

    2008-01-01

    Previous research has indicated that potential jurors are likely to use personal biases, such as those based on gender and ethnicity, in their judgments of culpability of criminal defendants in addition to, or instead of, the facts of the crime. The present paper seeks to extend this literature to the crime of filicide; to examine whether male defendants are judged more harshly than female defendants, as is the case for domestic violence and sexual abuse. 214 participants were provided with a scenario of filicide in which the gender of the perpetrator, the gender of the child, and the family's social class were randomly assigned. Participants were asked to rate the culpability of the defendant in the case. Results indicated that, unlike for other violent crimes, participants did not use gender or social class biases in their judgments of criminal culpability. PMID:18158184

  17. Scenario analysis for integrated water resources planning and management under uncertainty in the Zayandehrud river basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Safavi, Hamid R.; Golmohammadi, Mohammad H.; Sandoval-Solis, Samuel

    2016-08-01

    The goal of this study is to develop and analyze three scenarios in the Zayandehrud river basin in Iran using a model already built and calibrated by Safavi et al. (2015) that has results for the baseline scenario. Results from the baseline scenario show that water demands will be supplied at the cost of depletion of surface and ground water resources, making this scenario undesirable and unsustainable. Supply Management, Demand Management, and Meta (supply and demand management) scenarios are the selected scenarios in this study. They are to be developed and declared into the Zayandehrud model to assess and evaluate the imminent status of the basin. Certain strategies will be employed for this purpose to improve and rectify the current management policies. The five performance criteria of time-based and volumetric reliability, resilience, vulnerability, and maximum deficit will be employed in the process of scenario analysis and evaluation. The results obtained from the performance criteria will be summed up into a so-called 'Water Resources Sustainability Index' to facilitate comparison among the likely trade-offs. Uncertainties arising from historical data, management policies, rainfall-runoff model, demand priorities, and performance criteria are considered in the proposed conceptual framework and modeled by appropriate approaches. Results show that the Supply Management scenario can be used to improve upon the demand supply but that it has no tangible effects on the improvement of the resources in the study region. In this regard, the Demand Management scenario is found to be more effective than the water supply one although it still remains unacceptable. Results of the Meta scenario indicate that both the supply and demand management scenarios must be applied if the water resources are to be safeguarded against degradation and depletion. In other words, the supply management scenario is necessary but not adequate; rather, it must be coupled to the demand

  18. Uncertainty of simulated groundwater levels arising from stochastic transient climate change scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goderniaux, Pascal; Brouyère, Serge; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Burton, Aidan; Fowler, Hayley; Dassargues, Alain

    2010-05-01

    The evaluation of climate change impact on groundwater reserves represents a difficult task because both hydrological and climatic processes are complex and difficult to model. In this study, we present an innovative methodology that combines the use of integrated surface - subsurface hydrological models with advanced stochastic transient climate change scenarios. This methodology is applied to the Geer basin (480 km²) in Belgium, which is intensively exploited to supply the city of Liège (Belgium) with drinking water. The physically-based, spatially-distributed, surface-subsurface flow model has been developed with the finite element model HydroGeoSphere . The simultaneous solution of surface and subsurface flow equations in HydroGeoSphere, as well as the internal calculation of the actual evapotranspiration as a function of the soil moisture at each node of the evaporative zone, enables a better representation of interconnected processes in all domains of the catchment (fully saturated zone, partially saturated zone, surface). Additionally, the use of both surface and subsurface observed data to calibrate the model better constrains the calibration of the different water balance terms. Crucially, in the context of climate change impacts on groundwater resources, the evaluation of groundwater recharge is improved. . This surface-subsurface flow model is combined with advanced climate change scenarios for the Geer basin. Climate change simulations were obtained from six regional climate model (RCM) scenarios assuming the SRES A2 greenhouse gases emission (medium-high) scenario. These RCM scenarios were statistically downscaled using a transient stochastic weather generator technique, combining 'RainSim' and the 'CRU weather generator' for temperature and evapotranspiration time series. This downscaling technique exhibits three advantages compared with the 'delta change' method usually used in groundwater impact studies. (1) Corrections to climate model output are

  19. OBEST: The Object-Based Event Scenario Tree Methodology

    SciTech Connect

    WYSS, GREGORY D.; DURAN, FELICIA A.

    2001-03-01

    Event tree analysis and Monte Carlo-based discrete event simulation have been used in risk assessment studies for many years. This report details how features of these two methods can be combined with concepts from object-oriented analysis to develop a new risk assessment methodology with some of the best features of each. The resultant Object-Based Event Scenarios Tree (OBEST) methodology enables an analyst to rapidly construct realistic models for scenarios for which an a priori discovery of event ordering is either cumbersome or impossible (especially those that exhibit inconsistent or variable event ordering, which are difficult to represent in an event tree analysis). Each scenario produced by OBEST is automatically associated with a likelihood estimate because probabilistic branching is integral to the object model definition. The OBEST method uses a recursive algorithm to solve the object model and identify all possible scenarios and their associated probabilities. Since scenario likelihoods are developed directly by the solution algorithm, they need not be computed by statistical inference based on Monte Carlo observations (as required by some discrete event simulation methods). Thus, OBEST is not only much more computationally efficient than these simulation methods, but it also discovers scenarios that have extremely low probabilities as a natural analytical result--scenarios that would likely be missed by a Monte Carlo-based method. This report documents the OBEST methodology, the demonstration software that implements it, and provides example OBEST models for several different application domains, including interactions among failing interdependent infrastructure systems, circuit analysis for fire risk evaluation in nuclear power plants, and aviation safety studies.

  20. Integrated climate/land use/hydrological change scenarios for assessing threats to ecosystem services on California rangelands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Byrd, K. B.; Flint, L. E.; Casey, C. F.; Alvarez, P.; Sleeter, B. M.; Sohl, T.

    2013-12-01

    In California there are over 18 million acres of rangelands in the Central Valley and the interior Coast Range, most of which are privately owned and managed for livestock production. Ranches provide extensive wildlife habitat and generate multiple ecosystem services that carry considerable market and non-market values. These rangelands are under pressure from urbanization and conversion to intensive agriculture, as well as from climate change that can alter the flow of these services. To understand the coupled and isolated impacts of land use and climate change on rangeland ecosystem services, we developed six spatially explicit (250 m) coupled climate/land use/hydrological change scenarios for the Central Valley and oak woodland regions of California consistent with three IPCC emission scenarios - A2, A1B and B1. Three land use land cover (LULC) change scenarios were each integrated with two downscaled global climate models (GCMs) (a warm, wet future and a hot, dry future) and related hydrologic data. We used these scenarios to quantify wildlife habitat, water supply (recharge potential and streamflow) and carbon sequestration on rangelands and to conduct an economic analysis associated with changes in these benefits. The USGS FOREcasting SCEnarios of land-use change model (FORE-SCE), which runs dynamically with downscaled GCM outputs, was used to generate maps of yearly LULC change for each scenario from 2006 to 2100. We used the USGS Basin Characterization Model (BCM), a regional water balance model, to generate change in runoff, recharge, and stream discharge based on land use change and climate change. Metrics derived from model outputs were generated at the landscape scale and for six case-study watersheds. At the landscape scale, over a quarter of the million acres set aside for conservation in the B1 scenario would otherwise be converted to agriculture in the A2 scenario, where temperatures increase by up to 4.5 °C compared to 1.3 °C in the B1 scenario

  1. Evaluation Framework for Dependable Mobile Learning Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bensassi, Manel; Laroussi, Mona

    2014-01-01

    The goal of the dependability analysis is to predict inconsistencies and to reveal ambiguities and incompleteness in the designed learning scenario. Evaluation, in traditional learning design, is generally planned after the execution of the scenario. In mobile learning, this stage becomes too difficult and expensive to apply due to the complexity…

  2. Architectures for Developing Multiuser, Immersive Learning Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nadolski, Rob J.; Hummel, Hans G. K.; Slootmaker, Aad; van der Vegt, Wim

    2012-01-01

    Multiuser immersive learning scenarios hold strong potential for lifelong learning as they can support the acquisition of higher order skills in an effective, efficient, and attractive way. Existing virtual worlds, game development platforms, and game engines only partly cater for the proliferation of such learning scenarios as they are often…

  3. Molecular Diagnostic Analysis of Outbreak Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morsink, M. C.; Dekter, H. E.; Dirks-Mulder, A.; van Leeuwen, W. B.

    2012-01-01

    In the current laboratory assignment, technical aspects of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) are integrated in the context of six different bacterial outbreak scenarios. The "Enterobacterial Repetitive Intergenic Consensus Sequence" (ERIC) PCR was used to analyze different outbreak scenarios. First, groups of 2-4 students determined optimal…

  4. Beyond eruptive scenarios: assessing tephra fallout hazard from Neapolitan volcanoes

    PubMed Central

    Sandri, Laura; Costa, Antonio; Selva, Jacopo; Tonini, Roberto; Macedonio, Giovanni; Folch, Arnau; Sulpizio, Roberto

    2016-01-01

    Assessment of volcanic hazards is necessary for risk mitigation. Typically, hazard assessment is based on one or a few, subjectively chosen representative eruptive scenarios, which use a specific combination of eruptive sizes and intensities to represent a particular size class of eruption. While such eruptive scenarios use a range of representative members to capture a range of eruptive sizes and intensities in order to reflect a wider size class, a scenario approach neglects to account for the intrinsic variability of volcanic eruptions, and implicitly assumes that inter-class size variability (i.e. size difference between different eruptive size classes) dominates over intra-class size variability (i.e. size difference within an eruptive size class), the latter of which is treated as negligible. So far, no quantitative study has been undertaken to verify such an assumption. Here, we adopt a novel Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA) strategy, which accounts for intrinsic eruptive variabilities, to quantify the tephra fallout hazard in the Campania area. We compare the results of the new probabilistic approach with the classical scenario approach. The results allow for determining whether a simplified scenario approach can be considered valid, and for quantifying the bias which arises when full variability is not accounted for. PMID:27067389

  5. Bioretention function under climate change scenarios in North Carolina, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hathaway, J. M.; Brown, R. A.; Fu, J. S.; Hunt, W. F.

    2014-11-01

    The effect of climate change on stormwater controls is largely unknown. Evaluating such effects is important for understanding how well resiliency can be built into urban watersheds by implementing these systems. Bioretention areas with varied media depths, in situ soil types, drainage configurations, and surface infiltration capabilities have previously been monitored, modelled, and calibrated using the continuous simulation model, DRAINMOD. In this study, data from downscaled climate projections for 2055 through 2058 were utilized in these models to evaluate changes in system hydrologic function under two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). The results were compared to those generated using a “Base” scenario of observed data from 2001 to 2004. The results showed a modest change in the overall water balance of the system. In particular, the frequency and magnitude of overflow from the systems substantially increased under the climate change scenarios. As this represents an increase in the amount of uncontrolled, untreated runoff from the contributing watersheds, it is of particular concern. Further modelling showed that between 9.0 and 31.0 cm of additional storage would be required under the climate change scenarios to restrict annual overflow to that of the base scenario. Bioretention surface storage volume and infiltration rate appeared important in determining a system's ability to cope with increased yearly rainfall and higher rainfall magnitudes. As climate change effects vary based on location, similar studies should be performed in other locations to determine localized effects on stormwater controls.

  6. Beyond eruptive scenarios: assessing tephra fallout hazard from Neapolitan volcanoes.

    PubMed

    Sandri, Laura; Costa, Antonio; Selva, Jacopo; Tonini, Roberto; Macedonio, Giovanni; Folch, Arnau; Sulpizio, Roberto

    2016-01-01

    Assessment of volcanic hazards is necessary for risk mitigation. Typically, hazard assessment is based on one or a few, subjectively chosen representative eruptive scenarios, which use a specific combination of eruptive sizes and intensities to represent a particular size class of eruption. While such eruptive scenarios use a range of representative members to capture a range of eruptive sizes and intensities in order to reflect a wider size class, a scenario approach neglects to account for the intrinsic variability of volcanic eruptions, and implicitly assumes that inter-class size variability (i.e. size difference between different eruptive size classes) dominates over intra-class size variability (i.e. size difference within an eruptive size class), the latter of which is treated as negligible. So far, no quantitative study has been undertaken to verify such an assumption. Here, we adopt a novel Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA) strategy, which accounts for intrinsic eruptive variabilities, to quantify the tephra fallout hazard in the Campania area. We compare the results of the new probabilistic approach with the classical scenario approach. The results allow for determining whether a simplified scenario approach can be considered valid, and for quantifying the bias which arises when full variability is not accounted for. PMID:27067389

  7. Beyond eruptive scenarios: assessing tephra fallout hazard from Neapolitan volcanoes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sandri, Laura; Costa, Antonio; Selva, Jacopo; Tonini, Roberto; Macedonio, Giovanni; Folch, Arnau; Sulpizio, Roberto

    2016-04-01

    Assessment of volcanic hazards is necessary for risk mitigation. Typically, hazard assessment is based on one or a few, subjectively chosen representative eruptive scenarios, which use a specific combination of eruptive sizes and intensities to represent a particular size class of eruption. While such eruptive scenarios use a range of representative members to capture a range of eruptive sizes and intensities in order to reflect a wider size class, a scenario approach neglects to account for the intrinsic variability of volcanic eruptions, and implicitly assumes that inter-class size variability (i.e. size difference between different eruptive size classes) dominates over intra-class size variability (i.e. size difference within an eruptive size class), the latter of which is treated as negligible. So far, no quantitative study has been undertaken to verify such an assumption. Here, we adopt a novel Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA) strategy, which accounts for intrinsic eruptive variabilities, to quantify the tephra fallout hazard in the Campania area. We compare the results of the new probabilistic approach with the classical scenario approach. The results allow for determining whether a simplified scenario approach can be considered valid, and for quantifying the bias which arises when full variability is not accounted for.

  8. Beyond eruptive scenarios: assessing tephra fallout hazard from Neapolitan volcanoes.

    PubMed

    Sandri, Laura; Costa, Antonio; Selva, Jacopo; Tonini, Roberto; Macedonio, Giovanni; Folch, Arnau; Sulpizio, Roberto

    2016-04-12

    Assessment of volcanic hazards is necessary for risk mitigation. Typically, hazard assessment is based on one or a few, subjectively chosen representative eruptive scenarios, which use a specific combination of eruptive sizes and intensities to represent a particular size class of eruption. While such eruptive scenarios use a range of representative members to capture a range of eruptive sizes and intensities in order to reflect a wider size class, a scenario approach neglects to account for the intrinsic variability of volcanic eruptions, and implicitly assumes that inter-class size variability (i.e. size difference between different eruptive size classes) dominates over intra-class size variability (i.e. size difference within an eruptive size class), the latter of which is treated as negligible. So far, no quantitative study has been undertaken to verify such an assumption. Here, we adopt a novel Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA) strategy, which accounts for intrinsic eruptive variabilities, to quantify the tephra fallout hazard in the Campania area. We compare the results of the new probabilistic approach with the classical scenario approach. The results allow for determining whether a simplified scenario approach can be considered valid, and for quantifying the bias which arises when full variability is not accounted for.

  9. Soft Selective Sweeps in Complex Demographic Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Wilson, Benjamin A.; Petrov, Dmitri A.; Messer, Philipp W.

    2014-01-01

    Adaptation from de novo mutation can produce so-called soft selective sweeps, where adaptive alleles of independent mutational origin sweep through the population at the same time. Population genetic theory predicts that such soft sweeps should be likely if the product of the population size and the mutation rate toward the adaptive allele is sufficiently large, such that multiple adaptive mutations can establish before one has reached fixation; however, it remains unclear how demographic processes affect the probability of observing soft sweeps. Here we extend the theory of soft selective sweeps to realistic demographic scenarios that allow for changes in population size over time. We first show that population bottlenecks can lead to the removal of all but one adaptive lineage from an initially soft selective sweep. The parameter regime under which such “hardening” of soft selective sweeps is likely is determined by a simple heuristic condition. We further develop a generalized analytical framework, based on an extension of the coalescent process, for calculating the probability of soft sweeps under arbitrary demographic scenarios. Two important limits emerge within this analytical framework: In the limit where population-size fluctuations are fast compared to the duration of the sweep, the likelihood of soft sweeps is determined by the harmonic mean of the variance effective population size estimated over the duration of the sweep; in the opposing slow fluctuation limit, the likelihood of soft sweeps is determined by the instantaneous variance effective population size at the onset of the sweep. We show that as a consequence of this finding the probability of observing soft sweeps becomes a function of the strength of selection. Specifically, in species with sharply fluctuating population size, strong selection is more likely to produce soft sweeps than weak selection. Our results highlight the importance of accurate demographic estimates over short

  10. A compound heterozygote SLC26A2 mutation resulting in robin sequence, mild limbs shortness, accelerated carpal ossification, and multiple epiphysial dysplasia in two Brazilian sisters. A new intermediate phenotype between diastrophic dysplasia and recessive multiple epiphyseal dysplasia.

    PubMed

    Zechi-Ceide, Roseli Maria; Moura, Priscila Padilha; Raskin, Salmo; Richieri-Costa, Antonio; Guion-Almeida, Maria Leine

    2013-08-01

    Mutations in solute carrier family 26 (sulfate transporter), member 2 (SLC26A2) gene result in a spectrum of autosomal recessive chondrodysplasias that range from the mildest recessive form of multiple epiphysial dysplasia (rMED) through the most common diastrophic dysplasia (DTD) to lethal atelosteogenesis type II and achondrogenesis IB. The clinical variability has been ascribed to quantitative effect of mutations of the sulfate transporter activity. Here we describe two Brazilian sisters, born to healthy and non consanguineous parents, with Robin sequence, mild shortening of upper and lower limbs, brachymetacarpalia/tarsalia, additional and accelerated carpal ossification, marked genu valgum, and multiple epiphysial dysplasia. This phenotype was intermediate between DTD and rMED, and both girls have a compound heterozygous mutations for the SLC26A2, a Finnish founder mutation (c.-26 + 2T>C), and R279W. This combination of mutations has been observed in individuals with different phenotypes, including DTD, DTD variant, and rMED. The distinct phenotype of our cases reinforces the hypothesis that other factors may be influencing the phenotype as previously suggested. PMID:23840040

  11. Multiple High Resolution Climate Scenarios over North America for Application to Water Resources (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mearns, L. O.

    2009-12-01

    The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) is an international program that is serving the climate scenario needs of the United States, Canada, and northern Mexico. We are systematically investigating the uncertainties in regional scale projections of future climate and producing high resolution climate change scenarios using multiple regional climate models(RCMs)and multiple global model responses to a future emission scenario, by nesting the RCMs within atmosphere ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) forced with the A2 SRES scenario, over a domain covering the conterminous US, northern Mexico, and most of Canada. The project also includes a validation component through nesting the participating RCMs within NCEP reanalyses. The basic spatial resolution of the RCM simulations is 50 km. This program includes RCMs that participated in the European PRUDENCE program (HadRM3 and RegCM), the Canadian regional climate model (CRCM) as well as the NCEP regional spectral model (RSM), the NCAR/PSU MM5, and NCAR WRF. Candidate AOGCMs include the Hadley Centre HadCM3, NCAR CCSM, the Canadian CGCM3 and the GFDL model. The resulting climate model runs form the basis for multiple high resolution climate scenarios that can be used in climate change impacts assessments over North America. High resolution (50 km) global time-slice experiments based on the GFDL atmospheric model and the NCAR atmospheric model (CAM3) have also been produced and will be compared with the simulations of the regional models. There also will be opportunities for double nesting over key regions through which additional modelers in the regional modeling community will be able to participate in NARCCAP. Additional key science issues are being investigated such as the importance of compatible physics in the nested and nesting models. Measures of uncertainty across the multiple runs are being developed by geophysical statisticians. In this overview talk, results from Phase II

  12. Aerosol effect on climate extremes in Europe under different future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sillmann, J.; Pozzoli, L.; Vignati, E.; Kloster, S.; Feichter, J.

    2013-05-01

    This study investigates changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events under different future scenarios of anthropogenic aerosol emissions (i.e., SO2 and black and organic carbon) simulated with an aerosol-climate model (ECHAM5-HAM) with focus on Europe. The simulations include a maximum feasible aerosol reduction (MFR) scenario and a current legislation emission (CLEmod) scenario where Europe implements the MFR scenario, but the rest of the world follows the current legislation scenario and a greenhouse gas scenario. The strongest changes relative to the year 2000 are projected for the MFR scenario, in which the global aerosol reduction greatly enforces the general warming effect due to greenhouse gases and results in significant increases of temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe. Regional warming effects can also be identified from aerosol reductions under the CLEmodscenario. This becomes most obvious in the increase of the hottest summer daytime temperatures in Northern Europe.

  13. Addressing an Uncertain Future Using Scenario Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Marnay, Chris

    2006-12-15

    The Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) has had a longstanding goal of introducing uncertainty into the analysis it routinely conducts in compliance with the Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) and for strategic management purposes. The need to introduce some treatment of uncertainty arises both because it would be good general management practice, and because intuitively many of the technologies under development by EERE have a considerable advantage in an uncertain world. For example, an expected kWh output from a wind generator in a future year, which is not exposed to volatile and unpredictable fuel prices, should be truly worth more than an equivalent kWh from an alternative fossil fuel fired technology. Indeed, analysts have attempted to measure this value by comparing the prices observed in fixed-price natural gas contracts compared to ones in which buyers are exposed to market prices (see Bolinger, Wiser, and Golove and (2004)). In addition to the routine reasons for exploring uncertainty given above, the history of energy markets appears to have exhibited infrequent, but troubling, regime shifts, i.e., historic turning points at which the center of gravity or fundamental nature of the system appears to have abruptly shifted. Figure 1 below shows an estimate of how the history of natural gas fired generating costs has evolved over the last three decades. The costs shown incorporate both the well-head gas price and an estimate of how improving generation technology has gradually tended to lower costs. The purpose of this paper is to explore scenario analysis as a method for introducing uncertainty into EERE's forecasting in a manner consistent with the preceding observation. The two questions are how could it be done, and what is its academic basis, if any. Despite the interest in uncertainty methods, applying them poses some major hurdles because of the heavy reliance of EERE on forecasting tools that are deterministic in

  14. Confusion and its dynamics during device comprehension with breakdown scenarios.

    PubMed

    D'Mello, Sidney; Graesser, Art

    2014-09-01

    The incidence and dynamics of confusion during complex learning and problem solving were investigated in an experiment where participants first read illustrated texts on everyday devices (e.g., an electric bell) followed by breakdown scenarios reflecting device malfunctions (e.g., "When a person rang the bell there was a short ding and then no sound was heard"). The breakdown scenarios were expected to trigger impasses and put participants in a state of cognitive disequilibrium where they would experience confusion and engage in effortful confusion resolution activities in order to restore equilibrium. The results confirmed that participants reported more confusion when presented with the breakdown scenarios compared to control scenarios that involved focusing on important device components in the absence of malfunctions. A second-by-second analysis of the dynamics of confusion yielded two characteristic trajectories that distinguished participants who partially resolved their confusion from those who remained confused. Participants who were successful in partial confusion resolution while processing the breakdowns outperformed their counterparts on knowledge assessments after controlling for scholastic aptitude, engagement, and frustration. This effect was amplified for those who were highly confused by the breakdowns. There was no direct breakdown vs. control effect on learning, but being actively engaged and partially resolving confusion during breakdown processing were positive predictors of increased learning with the breakdown compared to control scenarios. Implications of our findings for theories that highlight the role of impasses, cognitive disequilibrium, and confusion to learning are discussed.

  15. Integrated Analysis of Market Transformation Scenarios with HyTrans

    SciTech Connect

    Greene, David L; Leiby, Paul Newsome; Bowman, David Charles

    2007-06-01

    This report presents alternative visions of the transition of light-duty vehicle transportation in the United States from petroleum to hydrogen power. It is a supporting document to the U.S. Department of Energy's Summary Report, "Analysis of the Transition to a Hydrogen Economy and the Potential Hydrogen Infrastructure Requirements" (U.S. DOE, 2007). Three alternative early transition scenarios were analyzed using a market simulation model called HyTrans. The HyTrans model simultaneously represents the behavior of fuel suppliers, vehicle manufacturers and consumers, explicitly recognizing the importance of fuel availability and the diversity of vehicle choices to consumers, and dependence of fuel supply on the existence of market demand. Competitive market outcomes are simulated by means of non-linear optimization of social surplus through the year 2050. The three scenarios specify different rates and geographical distributions of market penetration for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles from 2012 through 2025. Scenario 1 leads to 2 million vehicles on U.S. roads by 2025, while Scenarios 2 and 3 result in 5 million and 10 million FCVs in use by 2025, respectively. The HyTrans model "costs out" the transition scenarios and alternative policies for achieving them. It then tests whether the scenarios, together with the achievement of the DOE's technology goals for fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen infrastructure technologies could lead to a sustainable transition to hydrogen powered transportation. Given the achievement of DOE's ambitious technology goals, all three scenarios appear to lead to a sustainable transition to hydrogen. In the absence of early transition deployment effort, no transition is likely to begin before 2045. The cumulative costs of the transition scenarios to the government range from $8 billion to $45 billion, depending on the scenario, the policies adopted and the degree of cost-sharing with industry. In the absence of carbon constraining policies, the

  16. Simulation of Lunar Surface Communications Network Exploration Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Linsky, Thomas W.; Bhasin, Kul B.; White, Alex; Palangala, Srihari

    2006-01-01

    Simulations and modeling of surface-based communications networks provides a rapid and cost effective means of requirement analysis, protocol assessments, and tradeoff studies. Robust testing in especially important for exploration systems, where the cost of deployment is high and systems cannot be easily replaced or repaired. However, simulation of the envisioned exploration networks cannot be achieved using commercial off the shelf network simulation software. Models for the nonstandard, non-COTS protocols used aboard space systems are not readily available. This paper will address the simulation of realistic scenarios representative of the activities which will take place on the surface of the Moon, including selection of candidate network architectures, and the development of an integrated simulation tool using OPNET modeler capable of faithfully modeling those communications scenarios in the variable delay, dynamic surface environments. Scenarios for exploration missions, OPNET development, limitations, and simulations results will be provided and discussed.

  17. Natural gas network resiliency to a "shakeout scenario" earthquake.

    SciTech Connect

    Ellison, James F.; Corbet, Thomas Frank,; Brooks, Robert E.

    2013-06-01

    A natural gas network model was used to assess the likely impact of a scenario San Andreas Fault earthquake on the natural gas network. Two disruption scenarios were examined. The more extensive damage scenario assumes the disruption of all three major corridors bringing gas into southern California. If withdrawals from the Aliso Canyon storage facility are limited to keep the amount of stored gas within historical levels, the disruption reduces Los Angeles Basin gas supplies by 50%. If Aliso Canyon withdrawals are only constrained by the physical capacity of the storage system to withdraw gas, the shortfall is reduced to 25%. This result suggests that it is important for stakeholders to put agreements in place facilitating the withdrawal of Aliso Canyon gas in the event of an emergency.

  18. Oil spill response scenarios for remote arctic environments. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Schulze, R.H.; Grosskopf, W.G.; Cox, J.C.; Schultz, L.A.

    1982-03-01

    Special problems occur during oil spill cleanup in remote inland areas in cold climates. In Alaska these problems result from the harsh climate, the unusual terrain features, and the special problems of spills along swift rivers. The analysis begins with a description of the environmental conditions that occur in Alaska that affect oil spill behavior and oil spill cleanup. The study then describes four spill scenarios in remote areas giving engineering details of the mechanics of the spill movement and the cleanup effort. One scenario covers a winter blowout of a well on the north slope tundra. The next involves a Trans-Alaska Pipeline spill. The fourth scenario involves a fuel tank truck spill into a sensitive sport fishing stream. The study describes the impact of these spills on the environment. Further, it provides a numerical evaluation of the effectiveness of the spill response effort and the cost effectiveness of three incremental levels of spill response for the cleanup effort.

  19. A Scenario Generation Method for Wind Power Ramp Events Forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Cui, Ming-Jian; Ke, De-Ping; Sun, Yuan-Zhang; Gan, Di; Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias

    2015-07-03

    Wind power ramp events (WPREs) have received increasing attention in recent years due to their significant impact on the reliability of power grid operations. In this paper, a novel WPRE forecasting method is proposed which is able to estimate the probability distributions of three important properties of the WPREs. To do so, a neural network (NN) is first proposed to model the wind power generation (WPG) as a stochastic process so that a number of scenarios of the future WPG can be generated (or predicted). Each possible scenario of the future WPG generated in this manner contains the ramping information, and the distributions of the designated WPRE properties can be stochastically derived based on the possible scenarios. Actual data from a wind power plant in the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) was selected for testing the proposed ramp forecasting method. Results showed that the proposed method effectively forecasted the probability of ramp events.

  20. Logistics of a Lunar Based Solar Power Satellite Scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Melissopoulos, Stefanos

    1995-01-01

    A logistics system comprised of two orbital stations for the support of a 500 GW space power satellite scenario in a geostationary orbit was investigated in this study. A subsystem mass model, a mass flow model and a life cycle cost model were developed. The results regarding logistics cost and burden rates show that the transportation cost contributed the most (96%) to the overall cost of the scenario. The orbital stations at a geostationary and at a lunar orbit contributed 4 % to that cost.

  1. Assessment of land degradation susceptibility by scenario analysis: A case study in Southern Tuscany, Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Märker, Michael; Angeli, Luca; Bottai, Lorenzo; Costantini, Roberto; Ferrari, Raffaella; Innocenti, Lucia; Siciliano, Giuseppina

    2008-01-01

    In the Mediterranean area land degradation phenomena are becoming more and more important due to future climate change and increasing climate variability, as highlighted in recent global assessment projects such as the "Millennium Ecosystem Assessment" or "The Dialogue on Water and Climate". Thus, there is consistent evidence that extreme events such as droughts and floods are more frequent than before. On the other hand the Mediterranean area is strongly influenced by human activities such as cultivation over hundreds of years. However, in the last decades the cultivation methods and techniques are subject to profound changes such as mechanization, use of fertilizers and pesticides, remodellation of entire hillslopes etc. This particular situation leads to, and aggravates the existing stress on land resources. As a result, land degradation and soil erosion phenomena are leading to decreasing soil productivity or the loss of fertile top soil and related water quality and quantity issues. The Centre for Soil Erosion Studies (CRES) in Grosseto, Tuscany recently started a study to identify and monitor changes of land-use in southern Tuscany, Italy. The aim of this study is to assess land degradation sensitivity by scenario analysis. As a proxi for land degradation surface wash erosion processes such as rill and interill erosion processes are chosen. These present day processes are identified by aerial photo interpretation and subsequently modelled with a simple RUSLE approach on a monthly basis. In this study boundary conditions such as future precipitation were taken from the A2 future climate scenario published by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)-Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). Moreover, current land-use was identified from aerial photographs and future land-use scenarios were developed considering ecological and socio-economical issues for present day conditions of the test area. Subsequently, the different climate and land

  2. Interactive specification acquisition via scenarios: A proposal

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hall, Robert J.

    1992-01-01

    Some reactive systems are most naturally specified by giving large collections of behavior scenarios. These collections not only specify the behavior of the system, but also provide good test suites for validating the implemented system. Due to the complexity of the systems and the number of scenarios, however, it appears that automated assistance is necessary to make this software development process workable. Interactive Specification Acquisition Tool (ISAT) is a proposed interactive system for supporting the acquisition and maintenance of a formal system specification from scenarios, as well as automatic synthesis of control code and automated test generation. This paper discusses the background, motivation, proposed functions, and implementation status of ISAT.

  3. Analysis of advanced european nuclear fuel cycle scenarios including transmutation and economical estimates

    SciTech Connect

    Merino Rodriguez, I.; Alvarez-Velarde, F.; Martin-Fuertes, F.

    2013-07-01

    In this work the transition from the existing Light Water Reactors (LWR) to the advanced reactors is analyzed, including Generation III+ reactors in a European framework. Four European fuel cycle scenarios involving transmutation options have been addressed. The first scenario (i.e., reference) is the current fleet using LWR technology and open fuel cycle. The second scenario assumes a full replacement of the initial fleet with Fast Reactors (FR) burning U-Pu MOX fuel. The third scenario is a modification of the second one introducing Minor Actinide (MA) transmutation in a fraction of the FR fleet. Finally, in the fourth scenario, the LWR fleet is replaced using FR with MOX fuel as well as Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS) for MA transmutation. All scenarios consider an intermediate period of GEN-III+ LWR deployment and they extend for a period of 200 years looking for equilibrium mass flows. The simulations were made using the TR-EVOL code, a tool for fuel cycle studies developed by CIEMAT. The results reveal that all scenarios are feasible according to nuclear resources demand (U and Pu). Concerning to no transmutation cases, the second scenario reduces considerably the Pu inventory in repositories compared to the reference scenario, although the MA inventory increases. The transmutation scenarios show that elimination of the LWR MA legacy requires on one hand a maximum of 33% fraction (i.e., a peak value of 26 FR units) of the FR fleet dedicated to transmutation (MA in MOX fuel, homogeneous transmutation). On the other hand a maximum number of ADS plants accounting for 5% of electricity generation are predicted in the fourth scenario (i.e., 35 ADS units). Regarding the economic analysis, the estimations show an increase of LCOE (Levelized cost of electricity) - averaged over the whole period - with respect to the reference scenario of 21% and 29% for FR and FR with transmutation scenarios respectively, and 34% for the fourth scenario. (authors)

  4. Scenario-Based Spoken Interaction with Virtual Agents

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morton, Hazel; Jack, Mervyn A.

    2005-01-01

    This paper describes a CALL approach which integrates software for speaker independent continuous speech recognition with embodied virtual agents and virtual worlds to create an immersive environment in which learners can converse in the target language in contextualised scenarios. The result is a self-access learning package: SPELL (Spoken…

  5. FUTURE SCENARIOS OF CHANGE IN WILDLIFE HABITAT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Studies in Pennsylvania, Iowa, California, and Oregon show varying losses of terrestrial wildlife habitat in scenarios based on different assumptions about future human land use patterns. Retrospective estimates of losses of habitat since Euro-American settlement in several stud...

  6. Measuring Workload Differences Between Short-term Memory and Long-term Memory Scenarios in a Simulated Flight Environment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Berg, S. L.; Sheridan, T. B.

    1984-01-01

    Four highly experienced Air Force pilots each flew four simulated flight scenarios. Two scenarios required a great deal of aircraft maneuvering. The other two scenarios involved less maneuvering, but required remembering a number of items. All scenarios were designed to be equaly challenging. Pilot's Subjective Ratings for Activity-level, Complexity, Difficulty, Stress, and Workload were higher for the manuevering scenarios than the memory scenarios. At a moderate workload level, keeping the pilots active resulted in better aircraft control. When required to monitor and remember items, aircraft control tended to decrease. Pilots tended to weigh information about the spatial positioning and performance of their aircraft more heavily than other items.

  7. Augmented standard model and the simplest scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Tai Tsun; Wu, Sau Lan

    2015-11-01

    The experimental discovery of the Higgs particle in 2012 by the ATLAS Collaboration and the CMS Collaboration at CERN ushers in a new era of particle physics. On the basis of these data, scalar quarks and scalar leptons are added to each generation of quarks and leptons. The resulting augmented standard model has fermion-boson symmetry for each of three generations, but only one Higgs doublet giving masses to all the elementary particles. A specific special case, the simplest scenario, is studied in detail. In this case, there are twenty six quadratic divergences, and all these divergences are cancelled provided that one single relation between the masses is satisfied. This mass relation contains a great deal of information, and in particular determines the masses of all the right-handed scalar quarks and scalar leptons, while gives relations for the masses of the left-handed ones. An alternative procedure is also given with a different starting point and less reliance on the experimental data. The result is of course the same.

  8. Workforce management strategies in a disaster scenario.

    SciTech Connect

    Kelic, Andjelka; Turk, Adam L.

    2008-08-01

    A model of the repair operations of the voice telecommunications network is used to study labor management strategies under a disaster scenario where the workforce is overwhelmed. The model incorporates overtime and fatigue functions and optimizes the deployment of the workforce based on the cost of the recovery and the time it takes to recover. The analysis shows that the current practices employed in workforce management in a disaster scenario are not optimal and more strategic deployment of that workforce is beneficial.

  9. Subsistence Exposure Scenarios for Tribal Applications.

    PubMed

    Harper, Barbara; Harding, Anna; Harris, Stuart; Berger, Patricia

    2012-07-01

    The article provides an overview of methods that can be used to develop exposure scenarios for unique tribal natural resource usage patterns. Exposure scenarios are used to evaluate the degree of environmental contact experienced by people with different patterns of lifestyle activities, such as residence, recreation, or work. in 1994, U.S. President Bill Clinton's Executive Order 12898 recognized that disproportionately high exposures could be incurred by people with traditional subsistence lifestyles because of their more intensive contact with natural resources. Since then, we have developed several tribal exposure scenarios that reflect tribal-specific traditional lifeways. These scenarios are not necessarily intended to capture contemporary resource patterns, but to describe how the resources were used before contamination or degradation, and will be used once again in fully traditional ways after cleanup and restoration. The direct exposure factors for inhalation and soil ingestion rates are the same in each tribal scenario, but the diets are unique to each tribe and its local ecology, natural foods, and traditional practices. Scenarios, in part or in whole, also have other applications, such as developing environmental standards, evaluating disproportionate exposures, developing sampling plans, planning for climate change, or evaluating service flows as part of natural resource damage assessments.

  10. Subsistence Exposure Scenarios for Tribal Applications

    PubMed Central

    Harper, Barbara; Harding, Anna; Harris, Stuart; Berger, Patricia

    2014-01-01

    The article provides an overview of methods that can be used to develop exposure scenarios for unique tribal natural resource usage patterns. Exposure scenarios are used to evaluate the degree of environmental contact experienced by people with different patterns of lifestyle activities, such as residence, recreation, or work. in 1994, U.S. President Bill Clinton's Executive Order 12898 recognized that disproportionately high exposures could be incurred by people with traditional subsistence lifestyles because of their more intensive contact with natural resources. Since then, we have developed several tribal exposure scenarios that reflect tribal-specific traditional lifeways. These scenarios are not necessarily intended to capture contemporary resource patterns, but to describe how the resources were used before contamination or degradation, and will be used once again in fully traditional ways after cleanup and restoration. The direct exposure factors for inhalation and soil ingestion rates are the same in each tribal scenario, but the diets are unique to each tribe and its local ecology, natural foods, and traditional practices. Scenarios, in part or in whole, also have other applications, such as developing environmental standards, evaluating disproportionate exposures, developing sampling plans, planning for climate change, or evaluating service flows as part of natural resource damage assessments. PMID:25197207

  11. Carnivorous Utricularia: the buckling scenario.

    PubMed

    Vincent, Olivier; Marmottant, Philippe

    2011-11-01

    We review recent results about the functioning of aquatic carnivorous traps from the genus Utricularia. The use of high speed cameras has helped to elucidate the mechanism at the origin of the ultra fast capture process of Utricularia, at a millisecond time scale. As water is pumped out of the trap, pressure decreases inside the trap and elastic energy is stored due to the change of shape of the trap body. This energy is suddenly released when the trap is fired: the trap door undergoes an elastical instability--buckling--which allows its fast and passive opening and closure. This mechanism is used by Utricularia both to catch preys touching its trigger hairs and to fire spontaneously at regular time intervals. The results leading to this interpretation are reviewed and discussed and suggestions for further work are briefly presented.

  12. Modelling of (2,1) NTM threshold in JET advanced scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maget, P.; Lütjens, H.; Coelho, R.; Alper, B.; Brix, M.; Buratti, P.; Buttery, R. J.; De la Luna, E.; Hawkes, N.; Huysmans, G. T. A.; Jenkins, I.; Challis, C. D.; Giroud, C.; Litaudon, X.; Mailloux, J.; Ottaviani, M.; Contributors, JET-EFDA

    2010-04-01

    The limit to high performances advanced scenario discharges with qmin above unity is generally set by the (2,1) magneto-hydro-dynamic (MHD) mode in JET. We investigate here the possibility that this mode is a (2,1) neoclassical tearing mode (NTM) by computing the critical island width at which such mode would be unstable, using a non-linear MHD code where the relevant bootstrap current physics is accounted for. We show that the triggering of a (2,1) NTM is consistent with a lowering of the critical island width as the plasma current diffuses towards the centre. This is explained partly by the increase in the magnetic shear at the resonant surface, which weakens the curvature stabilization term, as found in the analytical framework of a generalized Rutherford equation. A comparison with experiment is made in the non-linear regime, showing encouraging results on the dynamics of the confinement degradation and mode structure.

  13. Expert assessment concludes negative emissions scenarios may not deliver

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vaughan, Naomi E.; Gough, Clair

    2016-09-01

    Many integrated assessment models (IAMs) rely on the availability and extensive use of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) to deliver emissions scenarios consistent with limiting climate change to below 2 °C average temperature rise. BECCS has the potential to remove carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere, delivering ‘negative emissions’. The deployment of BECCS at the scale assumed in IAM scenarios is highly uncertain: biomass energy is commonly used but not at such a scale, and CCS technologies have been demonstrated but not commercially established. Here we present the results of an expert elicitation process that explores the explicit and implicit assumptions underpinning the feasibility of BECCS in IAM scenarios. Our results show that the assumptions are considered realistic regarding technical aspects of CCS but unrealistic regarding the extent of bioenergy deployment, and development of adequate societal support and governance structures for BECCS. The results highlight concerns about the assumed magnitude of carbon dioxide removal achieved across a full BECCS supply chain, with the greatest uncertainty in bioenergy production. Unrealistically optimistic assumptions regarding the future availability of BECCS in IAM scenarios could lead to the overshoot of critical warming limits and have significant impacts on near-term mitigation options.

  14. Polyethylene recycling: Waste policy scenario analysis for the EU-27.

    PubMed

    Andreoni, Valeria; Saveyn, Hans G M; Eder, Peter

    2015-08-01

    This paper quantifies the main impacts that the adoption of the best recycling practices together with a reduction in the consumption of single-use plastic bags and the adoption of a kerbside collection system could have on the 27 Member States of the EU. The main consequences in terms of employment, waste management costs, emissions and energy use have been quantified for two scenarios of polyethylene (PE) waste production and recycling. That is to say, a "business as usual scenario", where the 2012 performances of PE waste production and recycling are extrapolated to 2020, is compared to a "best practice scenario", where the best available recycling practices are modelled together with the possible adoption of the amended Packaging and Packaging Waste Directive related to the consumption of single-use plastic bags and the implementation of a kerbside collection system. The main results show that socio-economic and environmental benefits can be generated across the EU by the implementation of the best practice scenario. In particular, estimations show a possible reduction of 4.4 million tonnes of non-recycled PE waste, together with a reduction of around €90 million in waste management costs in 2020 for the best practice scenario versus the business as usual scenario. An additional 35,622 jobs are also expected to be created. In environmental terms, the quantity of CO2 equivalent emissions could be reduced by around 1.46 million tonnes and the net energy requirements are expected to increase by 16.5 million GJ as a consequence of the reduction in the energy produced from waste. The main analysis provided in this paper, together with the data and the model presented, can be useful to identify the possible costs and benefits that the implementation of PE waste policies and Directives could generate for the EU.

  15. Validation of Variations in Mental Workload as a Function of Scenario Difficulty: Traffic Density and Visibility

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2003-01-01

    Fluctuations in mental workload can be expected as a function of traffic density and visibility. The aim of the current investigation was to establish simulation scenarios that differed in attentional processing requirements. Four scenarios were created and tested representing two levels of traffic density (urban versus freeway) and two levels of visibility (clear versus foggy). An array of mental workload assessment measures were used to exam changes in attentional processing requirements in each scenario. The assessment array consisted of physiological (P300 amplitude and latency) and behavioral (RT and accuracy) indices. Preliminary results indicate that workload differs significantly as a function of traffic density in rural versus freeway scenarios. Workload also differs significantly in rural versus freeway scenarios as a function of visibility as observed by a significant interaction between the two variables of interest. Results are discussed in terms of their application for validating the difficulty level of simulation scenarios as a format for examining mental workload.

  16. Report on a workshop on transportation-accident scenarios involving spent fuel

    SciTech Connect

    Wilmot, E L; McClure, J D; Luna, R E

    1981-02-01

    Much confusion and skepticism resulted from the scenarios for transportation accidents involving spent fuel that have been presented in environmental impact statements because the supporting assumptions and conclusions from the scenarios did not always appear to be consistent. As a result, the Transportation Technology Center gathered a group whose participants were experts in disciplines related to the transport of spent fuel to consider the scenarios. The group made a number of recommendations about scenario development and about areas in need of further study. This report documents the discussions held and the recommendations and conclusions of the group.

  17. Impact of explosive eruption scenarios at Vesuvius

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zuccaro, G.; Cacace, F.; Spence, R. J. S.; Baxter, P. J.

    2008-12-01

    scenario are highlighted. The results show the high sensitivity of hazard combinations in time and space distribution and address how to mitigate building vulnerability to subsequent eruptive phenomena [Baxter, P., Spence, R., Zuccaro, G., 2008-this issue. Risk mitigation and emergency measures at Vesuvius]. The first part of the work describes the numerical modelling and the methodology adopted to evaluate the resistance of buildings under the combined action of volcanic phenomena. Those considered here for this multi-hazard approach are limited to the following: earthquakes, pyroclastic flows and ash falls. Because of the lack of a systematic and extensive database of building damages observed after eruptions of such intensity of the past, approaches to this work must take a hybrid form of stochastic and deterministic analyses, taking into account written histories of volcanic eruptions and expertise from field geologists to build up a semi-deterministic model of the possible combinations of the above hazards that are situated both in time and space. Once a range of possible scenarios has been determined, a full stochastic method can be applied to find a sub-set of permutations and combinations of possible effects. This preliminary study of identification of the possible combination of the phenomena, subdividing them into those which are discrete and those which are continuous in time and space, enables consideration the vulnerability functions of the combinations to be feasible. In previous works [Spence, R., Brichieri-Colombi, N., Holdsworth, F., Baxter, P., Zuccaro, G., 2004a. Vesuvius: building vulnerability and human casualty estimation for a pyroclastic flow (25 pages). J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 133, 321-343. ISSN 0377-0273; Spence, R., Zuccaro, G., Petrazzuoli, S., Baxter, P.J., 2004b. The resistance of buildings to pyroclastic flows: theoretical and experimental studies in relation to Vesuvius, ASCE Nat. Hazards Rev. 5, 48-50. ISSN 1527-6988; Spence, R., Kelman

  18. Climate mitigation scenarios of drained peat soils

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kasimir Klemedtsson, Åsa; Coria, Jessica; He, Hongxing; Liu, Xiangping; Nordén, Anna

    2014-05-01

    The national inventory reports (NIR) submitted to the UNFCCC show Sweden - which as many other countries has wetlands where parts have been drained for agriculture and forestry purposes, - to annually emit 12 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalents, which is more GHG'es than industrial energy use release in Sweden. Similar conditions can be found in other northern countries, having cool and wet conditions, naturally promoting peat accumulation, and where land use management over the last centuries have promoted draining activities. These drained peatland, though covering only 2% of the land area, have emissions corresponding to 20% of the total reported NIR emissions. This substantial emission contribution, however, is hidden within the Land Use Land Use Change and Forestry sector (LULUCF) where the forest Carbon uptake is even larger, which causes the peat soil emissions become invisible. The only drained soil emission accounted in the Swedish Kyoto reporting is the N2O emission from agricultural drained organic soils of the size 0.5 million tonnes CO2e yr-1. This lack of visibility has made incentives for land use change and management neither implemented nor suggested, however with large potential. Rewetting has the potential to decrease soil mineralization, why CO2 and N2O emissions are mitigated. However if the soil becomes very wet CH4 emission will increase together with hampered plant growth. By ecological modeling, using the CoupModel the climate change mitigation potential have been estimated for four different land use scenarios; 1, Drained peat soil with Spruce (business as usual scenario), 2, raised ground water level to 20 cm depth and Willow plantation, 3, raised ground water level to 10 cm depth and Reed Canary Grass, and 4, rewetting to an average water level in the soil surface with recolonizing wetland plants and mosses. We calculate the volume of biomass production per year, peat decomposition, N2O emission together with nitrate and DOC

  19. A Water Rich Mars Surface Mission Scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hoffman, Stephen; Andrews, Alida; Joosten, Kent; Watts, Kevin

    2017-01-01

    The surface of Mars once had abundant water flowing on its surface, but now there is a general perception that this surface is completely dry. Several lines of research have shown that there are sources of potentially large quantities of water at many locations on the surface, including regions considered as candidates for future human missions. Traditionally, system designs for these human missions are constrained to tightly recycle water and oxygen, and current resource utilization strategies involve ascent vehicle oxidizer production only. But the assumption of relatively abundant extant water may change this. Several scenarios were constructed to evaluate water requirements for human Mars expeditions to assess the impact to system design if locally produced water is available. Specifically, we have assessed water resources needed for 1) ascent vehicle oxidizer and fuel production, 2) open-loop water and oxygen life support requirements along with more robust usage scenarios, and 3) crew radiation protection augmentation. In this assessment, production techniques and the associated chemistry to transform Martian water and atmosphere into these useful commodities are identified, but production mass and power requirements are left to future analyses. The figure below illustrates the type of water need assessment performed and that will be discussed. There have been several sources of feedstock material discussed in recent literature that could be used to produce these quantities of water. This paper will focus on Mars surface features that resemble glacier-like forms on Earth. Several lines of evidence indicate that some of these features are in fact buried ice, likely remnants from an earlier ice age on Mars. This paper examines techniques and hardware systems used in the polar regions of Earth to access this buried ice and withdraw water from it. These techniques and systems will be described to illustrate options available. A technique known as a Rodriguez Well

  20. An Exploration of Scenarios to Support Sustainable Land Management Using Integrated Environmental Socio-economic Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fleskens, L.; Nainggolan, D.; Stringer, L. C.

    2014-11-01

    Scenario analysis constitutes a valuable deployment method for scientific models to inform environmental decision-making, particularly for evaluating land degradation mitigation options, which are rarely based on formal analysis. In this paper we demonstrate such an assessment using the PESERA-DESMICE modeling framework with various scenarios for 13 global land degradation hotspots. Starting with an initial assessment representing land degradation and productivity under current conditions, options to combat instances of land degradation are explored by determining: (1) Which technologies are most biophysically appropriate and most financially viable in which locations; we term these the "technology scenarios"; (2) how policy instruments such as subsidies influence upfront investment requirements and financial viability and how they lead to reduced levels of land degradation; we term these the "policy scenarios"; and (3) how technology adoption affects development issues such as food production and livelihoods; we term these the "global scenarios". Technology scenarios help choose the best technology for a given area in biophysical and financial terms, thereby outlining where policy support may be needed to promote adoption; policy scenarios assess whether a policy alternative leads to a greater extent of technology adoption; while global scenarios demonstrate how implementing technologies may serve wider sustainable development goals. Scenarios are applied to assess spatial variation within study sites as well as to compare across different sites. Our results show significant scope to combat land degradation and raise agricultural productivity at moderate cost. We conclude that scenario assessment can provide informative input to multi-level land management decision-making processes.

  1. Does the thought of death contribute to the memory benefit of encoding with a survival scenario?

    PubMed

    Bugaiska, Aurélia; Mermillod, Martial; Bonin, Patrick

    2015-01-01

    Four studies tested whether the thought of death contributes to the survival processing advantage found in memory tests (i.e., the survival effect). In the first study, we replicated the "Dying To Remember" (DTR) effect identified by Burns and colleagues whereby activation of death thoughts led to better retention than an aversive control situation. In Study 2, we compared an ancestral survival scenario, a modern survival scenario and a "life-after-death" scenario. The modern survival scenario and the dying scenario led to higher levels of recall than the ancestral scenario. In Study 3, we used a more salient death-thought scenario in which people imagine themselves on death row. Results showed that the "death-row" scenario yielded a level of recall similar to that of the ancestral survival condition. We also collected ratings of death-related thoughts (Studies 3 and 4) and of survival-related and planning thoughts (Study 4). The ratings indicated that death-related thoughts were induced more by the dying scenarios than by the survival scenarios, whereas the reverse was observed for both survival-related and planning thoughts. The findings are discussed in the light of two contrasting views of the influence of mortality salience in the survival effect.

  2. An exploration of scenarios to support sustainable land management using integrated environmental socio-economic models.

    PubMed

    Fleskens, L; Nainggolan, D; Stringer, L C

    2014-11-01

    Scenario analysis constitutes a valuable deployment method for scientific models to inform environmental decision-making, particularly for evaluating land degradation mitigation options, which are rarely based on formal analysis. In this paper we demonstrate such an assessment using the PESERA-DESMICE modeling framework with various scenarios for 13 global land degradation hotspots. Starting with an initial assessment representing land degradation and productivity under current conditions, options to combat instances of land degradation are explored by determining: (1) Which technologies are most biophysically appropriate and most financially viable in which locations; we term these the "technology scenarios"; (2) how policy instruments such as subsidies influence upfront investment requirements and financial viability and how they lead to reduced levels of land degradation; we term these the "policy scenarios"; and (3) how technology adoption affects development issues such as food production and livelihoods; we term these the "global scenarios". Technology scenarios help choose the best technology for a given area in biophysical and financial terms, thereby outlining where policy support may be needed to promote adoption; policy scenarios assess whether a policy alternative leads to a greater extent of technology adoption; while global scenarios demonstrate how implementing technologies may serve wider sustainable development goals. Scenarios are applied to assess spatial variation within study sites as well as to compare across different sites. Our results show significant scope to combat land degradation and raise agricultural productivity at moderate cost. We conclude that scenario assessment can provide informative input to multi-level land management decision-making processes.

  3. Hyperspectral Anomaly Detection in Urban Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rejas Ayuga, J. G.; Martínez Marín, R.; Marchamalo Sacristán, M.; Bonatti, J.; Ojeda, J. C.

    2016-06-01

    We have studied the spectral features of reflectance and emissivity in the pattern recognition of urban materials in several single hyperspectral scenes through a comparative analysis of anomaly detection methods and their relationship with city surfaces with the aim to improve information extraction processes. Spectral ranges of the visible-near infrared (VNIR), shortwave infrared (SWIR) and thermal infrared (TIR) from hyperspectral data cubes of AHS sensor and HyMAP and MASTER of two cities, Alcalá de Henares (Spain) and San José (Costa Rica) respectively, have been used. In this research it is assumed no prior knowledge of the targets, thus, the pixels are automatically separated according to their spectral information, significantly differentiated with respect to a background, either globally for the full scene, or locally by image segmentation. Several experiments on urban scenarios and semi-urban have been designed, analyzing the behaviour of the standard RX anomaly detector and different methods based on subspace, image projection and segmentation-based anomaly detection methods. A new technique for anomaly detection in hyperspectral data called DATB (Detector of Anomalies from Thermal Background) based on dimensionality reduction by projecting targets with unknown spectral signatures to a background calculated from thermal spectrum wavelengths is presented. First results and their consequences in non-supervised classification and extraction information processes are discussed.

  4. Knowledge sharing in the health scenario

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    The understanding of certain data often requires the collection of similar data from different places to be analysed and interpreted. Interoperability standards and ontologies, are facilitating data interchange around the world. However, beyond the existing networks and advances for data transfer, data sharing protocols to support multilateral agreements are useful to exploit the knowledge of distributed Data Warehouses. The access to a certain data set in a federated Data Warehouse may be constrained by the requirement to deliver another specific data set. When bilateral agreements between two nodes of a network are not enough to solve the constraints for accessing to a certain data set, multilateral agreements for data exchange are needed. We present the implementation of a Multi-Agent System for multilateral exchange agreements of clinical data, and evaluate how those multilateral agreements increase the percentage of data collected by a single node from the total amount of data available in the network. Different strategies to reduce the number of messages needed to achieve an agreement are also considered. The results show that with this collaborative sharing scenario the percentage of data collected dramaticaly improve from bilateral agreements to multilateral ones, up to reach almost all data available in the network. PMID:25471452

  5. Knowledge sharing in the health scenario.

    PubMed

    Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Brugués de la Torre, Albert; Vallverdú, Francesc; Pegueroles-Vallés, Josep

    2014-11-28

    The understanding of certain data often requires the collection of similar data from different places to be analysed and interpreted. Interoperability standards and ontologies, are facilitating data interchange around the world. However, beyond the existing networks and advances for data transfer, data sharing protocols to support multilateral agreements are useful to exploit the knowledge of distributed Data Warehouses. The access to a certain data set in a federated Data Warehouse may be constrained by the requirement to deliver another specific data set. When bilateral agreements between two nodes of a network are not enough to solve the constraints for accessing to a certain data set, multilateral agreements for data exchange are needed. We present the implementation of a Multi-Agent System for multilateral exchange agreements of clinical data, and evaluate how those multilateral agreements increase the percentage of data collected by a single node from the total amount of data available in the network. Different strategies to reduce the number of messages needed to achieve an agreement are also considered. The results show that with this collaborative sharing scenario the percentage of data collected dramaticaly improve from bilateral agreements to multilateral ones, up to reach almost all data available in the network.

  6. [Environmental management: critical analysis, scenarios and challenges].

    PubMed

    Porto, Marcelo Firpo de Souza; Schütz, Gabriel Eduardo

    2012-06-01

    This article discusses the limits, alternatives and challenges of environmental management in contemporary globalized capitalist societies. It is based on a critical analysis supported by authors from social sciences, political ecology and public health. To this end, we systematize the meaning of hegemonic environmental management in terms of eco-efficiency and its limits to tackle environmental risks and construct democratic processes and societies. We developed four ideal scenarios involving possible combinations of environmental management and democracy. This model served as a base, together with academic studies and the theoretical and militant experience of the authors, for a reflection on the current characteristics and future trends of environmental management and democracy, with emphasis on the reality of Latin America, specifically Brazil. Lastly, we discuss possibilities for social transformation taking into consideration the contradictions and emancipatory alternatives resulting from confrontations between hegemonic tendencies of the market and counter-hegemonic utopias and social movements. The latter assume principles of environmental justice, economic solidarity, agro-ecology and sustainability as well as the construction of new epistemologies. PMID:22699636

  7. Dynamical Scenarios for Chromosome Bi-orientation

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Tongli; Oliveira, Raquel A.; Schmierer, Bernhard; Novák, Béla

    2013-01-01

    Chromosome bi-orientation at the metaphase spindle is essential for precise segregation of the genetic material. The process is error-prone, and error-correction mechanisms exist to switch misaligned chromosomes to the correct, bi-oriented configuration. Here, we analyze several possible dynamical scenarios to explore how cells might achieve correct bi-orientation in an efficient and robust manner. We first illustrate that tension-mediated feedback between the sister kinetochores can give rise to a bistable switch, which allows robust distinction between a loose attachment with low tension and a strong attachment with high tension. However, this mechanism has difficulties in explaining how bi-orientation is initiated starting from unattached kinetochores. We propose four possible mechanisms to overcome this problem (exploiting molecular noise; allowing an efficient attachment of kinetochores already in the absence of tension; a trial-and-error oscillation; and a stochastic bistable switch), and assess their impact on the bi-orientation process. Based on our results and supported by experimental data, we put forward a trial-and-error oscillation and a stochastic bistable switch as two elegant mechanisms with the potential to promote bi-orientation both efficiently and robustly. PMID:23790367

  8. [Environmental management: critical analysis, scenarios and challenges].

    PubMed

    Porto, Marcelo Firpo de Souza; Schütz, Gabriel Eduardo

    2012-06-01

    This article discusses the limits, alternatives and challenges of environmental management in contemporary globalized capitalist societies. It is based on a critical analysis supported by authors from social sciences, political ecology and public health. To this end, we systematize the meaning of hegemonic environmental management in terms of eco-efficiency and its limits to tackle environmental risks and construct democratic processes and societies. We developed four ideal scenarios involving possible combinations of environmental management and democracy. This model served as a base, together with academic studies and the theoretical and militant experience of the authors, for a reflection on the current characteristics and future trends of environmental management and democracy, with emphasis on the reality of Latin America, specifically Brazil. Lastly, we discuss possibilities for social transformation taking into consideration the contradictions and emancipatory alternatives resulting from confrontations between hegemonic tendencies of the market and counter-hegemonic utopias and social movements. The latter assume principles of environmental justice, economic solidarity, agro-ecology and sustainability as well as the construction of new epistemologies.

  9. River flood risk in Jakarta under scenarios of future change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Budiyono, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Tollenaar, D.; Ward, P.

    2015-07-01

    Given the increasing impacts of flooding in Jakarta, methods for assessing current and future flood risk are required. In this paper, we use the Damagescanner-Jakarta risk model to project changes in future river flood risk under scenarios of climate change, land subsidence, and land use change. We estimate current flood risk at USD 143 million p.a. Combining all future scenarios, we simulate a median increase in risk of +263 % by 2030. The single driver with the largest contribution to that increase is land subsidence (+173 %). We simulated the impacts of climate change by combining two scenario of sea level rise with simulations of changes in 1 day extreme precipitation totals from 5 Global Climate Models (GCMs) forced by 4 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The results are highly uncertain; the median change in risk due to climate change alone by 2030 is a decrease by -4 %, but we simulate an increase in risk under 21 of the 40 GCM-RCP-sea level rise combinations. Hence, we developed probabilistic risk scenarios to account for this uncertainty. Finally, we discuss the relevance of the results for flood risk management in Jakarta.

  10. Temperature increase of 21st century mitigation scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Van Vuuren, Detlef; Meinshausen, Malte; Plattner, Gian-Kasper; Joos, Fortunat; Strassmann, Kuno M.; Smith, Steven J.; Wigley, T. M.; Raper, S.; Riahi, Keywan; De La Chesnaye, Francisco; Den Elzen, Michel; Fujino, Junicho; Kejun, Jiang; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Paltsev, S.; Reilly, J. M.

    2008-10-06

    Estimates on 21st century global mean surface temperature increase have generally been based on scenarios that do not include climate policies. Newly developed multi-gas mitigation scenarios now allow the assessment of possible impacts of climate policies on projected warming ranges. By combing emission pathway results from multiple energy-economic models, we show that these mitigation scenarios result in a range of 21st century temperature increase of 0.5 to 4.2°C over 1990 levels as compared to 1.3-7.3 °C for the no-policy cases. About half the range is due to differences in the assumed stringency of the global climate policy and half is due to uncertainty in our understanding of the climate system, specifically, the carbon cycle and climate sensitivity. A minimum warming of about 0.5-2.7°C (avg. 1.3oC) remains for even the most stringent stabilization scenarios analyzed here - highlighting the need for both emission mitigation and adaptation policies.

  11. Two graphical user interfaces for managing and analyzing MODFLOW groundwater-model scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Banta, Edward R.

    2014-01-01

    Scenario Manager and Scenario Analyzer are graphical user interfaces that facilitate the use of calibrated, MODFLOW-based groundwater models for investigating possible responses to proposed stresses on a groundwater system. Scenario Manager allows a user, starting with a calibrated model, to design and run model scenarios by adding or modifying stresses simulated by the model. Scenario Analyzer facilitates the process of extracting data from model output and preparing such display elements as maps, charts, and tables. Both programs are designed for users who are familiar with the science on which groundwater modeling is based but who may not have a groundwater modeler’s expertise in building and calibrating a groundwater model from start to finish. With Scenario Manager, the user can manipulate model input to simulate withdrawal or injection wells, time-variant specified hydraulic heads, recharge, and such surface-water features as rivers and canals. Input for stresses to be simulated comes from user-provided geographic information system files and time-series data files. A Scenario Manager project can contain multiple scenarios and is self-documenting. Scenario Analyzer can be used to analyze output from any MODFLOW-based model; it is not limited to use with scenarios generated by Scenario Manager. Model-simulated values of hydraulic head, drawdown, solute concentration, and cell-by-cell flow rates can be presented in display elements. Map data can be represented as lines of equal value (contours) or as a gradated color fill. Charts and tables display time-series data obtained from output generated by a transient-state model run or from user-provided text files of time-series data. A display element can be based entirely on output of a single model run, or, to facilitate comparison of results of multiple scenarios, an element can be based on output from multiple model runs. Scenario Analyzer can export display elements and supporting metadata as a Portable

  12. Simultaneous geologic scenario identification and flow model calibration with group-sparsity formulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Golmohammadi, Azarang; Jafarpour, Behnam

    2016-06-01

    Adopting representative geologic connectivity scenarios is critical for reliable modeling and prediction of flow and transport processes in subsurface environments. Geologic scenarios are often developed by integrating several sources of information, including knowledge of the depositional environment, qualitative and quantitative data such as outcrop and well logs, and process-based geologic modeling. In general, flow and transport response data are usually not included in constructing geologic scenarios for a basin. Instead, these data are typically matched using a given prior geologic scenario as constraint. Since data limitations, modeling assumptions and subjective interpretations can lead to significant uncertainty in the adopted geologic scenarios, flow and transport data may also be useful for constraining the uncertainty in proposed geologic scenarios. Constraining geologic scenarios with flow-related data opens an interesting and challenging research area, which goes beyond the traditional model calibration formulations where the geologic scenario is assumed given. In this paper, a novel concept, known as group-sparsity regularization, is proposed as an effective formulation to constrain the uncertainty in the prior geologic scenario during subsurface flow model calibration. Given a collection of model realizations from several plausible geologic scenarios, the proposed method first applies the truncated singular value decomposition (TSVD) to compactly represent the models from each geologic scenario. The TSVD basis for representing each scenario forms a distinct group. The proposed approach searches over these groups (i.e., geologic scenarios) to eliminate inconsistent groups that are not supported by the observed flow/pressure data. The group-sparsity regularization minimizes a l1/l2mixed norm, where the l2-norm quantifies the contribution of each group and operates on the coefficients within the groups while the l1-norm, having a selection property, is

  13. Security Analysis of Selected AMI Failure Scenarios Using Agent Based Game Theoretic Simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Schlicher, Bob G; Sheldon, Frederick T

    2014-01-01

    Information security analysis can be performed using game theory implemented in dynamic Agent Based Game Theoretic (ABGT) simulations. Such simulations can be verified with the results from game theory analysis and further used to explore larger scale, real world scenarios involving multiple attackers, defenders, and information assets. We concentrated our analysis on the Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) functional domain which the National Electric Sector Cyber security Organization Resource (NESCOR) working group has currently documented 29 failure scenarios. The strategy for the game was developed by analyzing five electric sector representative failure scenarios contained in the AMI functional domain. From these five selected scenarios, we characterize them into three specific threat categories affecting confidentiality, integrity and availability (CIA). The analysis using our ABGT simulation demonstrates how to model the AMI functional domain using a set of rationalized game theoretic rules decomposed from the failure scenarios in terms of how those scenarios might impact the AMI network with respect to CIA.

  14. Water use implications of biofuel scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teter, J.; Mishra, G. S.; Yeh, S.

    2012-12-01

    Existing studies rely upon attributional lifecycle analysis (LCA) approaches to estimate water intensity of biofuels in liters of irrigated/evapotranspiration water consumed for biofuel production. Such approaches can be misleading. From a policy perspective, a better approach is to compare differential water impacts among scenarios on a landscape scale. We address the shortcomings of existing studies by using consequential LCA, and incorporate direct and indirect land use (changes) of biofuel scenarios, marginal vs. average biofuel water use estimates, future climate, and geographic heterogeneity. We use the outputs of a partial equilibrium economic model, climate and soil data, and a process-based crop-soil-climate-water model to estimate differences in green water (GW - directly from precipitation to soil) and blue water (BW - supplied by irrigation) use among three scenarios: (1) business-as-usual (BAU), (2) Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandates, and (3) a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) plus the RFS scenario. We use spatial statistical methods to interpolate key climatic variables using daily climate observations for the contiguous USA. Finally, we use FAO's crop model AquaCrop to estimate the domestic GW and BW impacts of biofuel policies from 2007-2035. We assess the differences among scenarios along the following metrics: (1) crop area expansion at the county level, including prime and marginal lands, (2) crop-specific and overall annual/seasonal water balances including (a) water inflows (irrigation & precipitation), (b) crop-atmosphere interactions: (evaporation & transpiration) and (d) soil-water flows (runoff & soil infiltration), in mm 3 /acre over the relevant time period. The functional unit of analysis is the BW and GW requirements of biofuels (mm3 per Btu biofuel) at the county level. Differential water use impacts among scenarios are a primarily a function of (1) land use conversion, in particular that of formerly uncropped land classes

  15. Development of nonproliferation and assessment scenarios.

    SciTech Connect

    Finley, Melissa; Barnett, Natalie Beth

    2005-10-01

    The overall objective of the Nonproliferation and Assessments Scenario Development project is to create and analyze potential and plausible scenarios that would lead to an adversary's ability to acquire and use a biological weapon. The initial three months of funding was intended to be used to develop a scenario to demonstrate the efficacy of this analysis methodology; however, it was determined that a substantial amount of preliminary data collection would be needed before a proof of concept scenario could be developed. We have dedicated substantial effort to determine the acquisition pathways for Foot and Mouth Disease Virus, and similar processes will be applied to all pathogens of interest. We have developed a biosecurity assessments database to capture information on adversary skill locales, available skill sets in specific regions, pathogen sources and regulations involved in pathogen acquisition from legitimate facilities. FY06 funding, once released, will be dedicated to data collection on acquisition, production and dissemination requirements on a pathogen basis. Once pathogen data has been collected, scenarios will be developed and scored.

  16. Detect-to-warn scenarios for defense against airborne contaminants

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cousins, Daniel; Campbell, Steven D.; Joseph, Rose

    2004-12-01

    Detect-to-warn defense strategies against airborne contamination are based on providing warning to personnel to take temporary protective actions. The effectiveness of such detect-to-warn active strategies is measured by the reduction in contaminant exposure compared to passive exposure. Effectiveness depends on several factors, including the contaminant release and transport properties, the warning sensor performance and the protective actions taken. In this paper we analyze effectiveness for several specific scenarios where certain reasonable protective actions are assumed and sensor performance is varied. One type of scenario analyzed is the protection of outdoor personnel against an upwind instantaneous point release. Meteorological conditions such as wind speed, turbulence level and heat flux, which result in high exposure levels are assumed. Personnel are warned to temporarily use filter masks based on a warning signal from a sensor placed between them and the release point. Another type of scenario is the protection of personnel inside of a building using active ventilation control. The building air handling properties, such as air exchange and recirculation, degree of leakage and filtration and zone volume, are representative of modern office buildings. Different sensor locations and ventilation control strategies are chosen to defend against outside and inside instantaneous point releases. In each scenario, we evaluate the dependence of effectiveness on sensor sensitivity threshold and response time. In addition, we describe desired values of other sensor attributes, such as false positive sensing rate, size, power consumption, maintenance frequency and procurement cost, to support realistic deployment and operations.

  17. Reliable freestanding position-based routing in highway scenarios.

    PubMed

    Galaviz-Mosqueda, Gabriel A; Aquino-Santos, Raúl; Villarreal-Reyes, Salvador; Rivera-Rodríguez, Raúl; Villaseñor-González, Luis; Edwards, Arthur

    2012-01-01

    Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks (VANETs) are considered by car manufacturers and the research community as the enabling technology to radically improve the safety, efficiency and comfort of everyday driving. However, before VANET technology can fulfill all its expected potential, several difficulties must be addressed. One key issue arising when working with VANETs is the complexity of the networking protocols compared to those used by traditional infrastructure networks. Therefore, proper design of the routing strategy becomes a main issue for the effective deployment of VANETs. In this paper, a reliable freestanding position-based routing algorithm (FPBR) for highway scenarios is proposed. For this scenario, several important issues such as the high mobility of vehicles and the propagation conditions may affect the performance of the routing strategy. These constraints have only been partially addressed in previous proposals. In contrast, the design approach used for developing FPBR considered the constraints imposed by a highway scenario and implements mechanisms to overcome them. FPBR performance is compared to one of the leading protocols for highway scenarios. Performance metrics show that FPBR yields similar results when considering freespace propagation conditions, and outperforms the leading protocol when considering a realistic highway path loss model. PMID:23202159

  18. The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ross, Stephanie; Jones, Lucile

    2013-01-01

    The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario depicts a hypothetical but plausible tsunami created by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula and its impacts on the California coast. The tsunami scenario is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the California Geological Survey (CGS), the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), other Federal, State, County, and local agencies, private companies, and academic and other institutions. This document presents evidence for past tsunamis, the scientific basis for the source, likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental and ecological impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management and evacuation challenges, and policy implications for California associated with this hypothetical tsunami. We also discuss ongoing mitigation efforts by the State of California and new communication products. The intended users are those who need to make mitigation decisions before future tsunamis, and those who will need to make rapid decisions during tsunami events. The results of the tsunami scenario will help managers understand the context and consequences of their decisions and how they may improve preparedness and response. An evaluation component will assess the effectiveness of the scenario process for target stakeholders in a separate report to improve similar efforts in the future.

  19. Identification of objective representative scenarios for hazard assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sandri, Laura; Selva, Jacopo; Costa, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    Assessment of volcanic hazards is typically based on one or a few representative eruptive scenarios, meant as specific combinations of a representative eruptive size, intensity, and vent position, selected with subjective criteria neglecting the full intrinsic natural variability characterizing volcanic processes. In common practice, the size and intensity of such scenarios are taken as representative of wider ranges, here termed "size classes". The approach implicitly or explicitly assumes that the inter-size class variability (among different eruptive size classes) is predominant with respect to the intra-size class variability (i.e., the variability inside each range represented by an eruptive size and intensity), the latter assumed as negligible. So far, no quantitative study has been carried out to verify such an assumption. Here, we first adopt a novel statistical strategy, that accounts for the full natural variability, to quantify the Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment for tephra fallout in the Campania area. Secondly, we compare the results of the new method with those based on few representative scenarios only. On one hand, such comparison allows for determining when the simplified approach is valid, and quantifying the bias introduced in hazard assessment when the full variability is not accounted for. On the other hand, this novel approach opens the way to an objective a posteriori identification of a limited number of representative scenarios, which are necessary when there is no possibility to explore the full variability, as for example for rapid hazard assessment during emergencies, or for short-term hazard assessment.

  20. Chlorofluorocarbon production scenarios: possible changes to stratospheric ozone

    SciTech Connect

    Wuebbles, D.J.; Tarp, R.L.; Nold, A.; Wood, W.P.

    1981-01-01

    As one aspect of the regulatory process, the Environmental Protection Agency has derived a series of scenarios for future atmospheric emission rates of the chlorofluorocarbons CFCl/sub 3/ (also referred to as F-11), CF/sub 2/Cl/sub 2/ (F-12), CCl/sub 2/FCClF/sub 2/(F-113), CClF/sub 2/CClF/sub 2/(F-114), and CClF/sub 2/CF/sub 3/ (F-115). These scenarios are based on potential industrial production and commercial applications, and the eventual release of these chemicals into the atmosphere. In this study, the potential effect on stratospheric ozone resulting from future chlorofluorocarbon emissions as suggested by these scenarios is examined. Assessments are based upon model calculations using the one-dimensional coupled transport and chemical kinetics model of the troposphere and stratosphere developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The change in total ozone column calculated for the seven scenarios as a function of time is given. (JGB)

  1. Scenario for Hollow Cathode End-Of-Life

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sarver-Verhey, Timothy R.

    2000-01-01

    Recent successful hollow cathode life tests have demonstrated that lifetimes can meet the requirements of several space applications. However, there are no methods for assessing cathode lifetime short of demonstrating the requirement. Previous attempts to estimate or predict cathode lifetime were based on relatively simple chemical depletion models derived from the dispenser cathode community. To address this lack of predicative capability, a scenario for hollow cathode lifetime under steady-state operating conditions is proposed. This scenario has been derived primarily from the operating behavior and post-test condition of a hollow cathode that was operated for 28,000 hours. In this scenario, the insert chemistry evolves through three relatively distinct phases over the course of the cathode lifetime. These phases are believed to correspond to demonstrable changes in cathode operation. The implications for cathode lifetime limits resulting from this scenario are examined, including methods to assess cathode lifetime without operating to End-of- Life and methods to extend the cathode lifetime.

  2. Establishing the common patterns of future tropospheric ozone under diverse climate change scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jimenez-Guerrero, Pedro; Gómez-Navarro, Juan J.; Jerez, Sonia; Lorente-Plazas, Raquel; Baro, Rocio; Montávez, Juan P.

    2013-04-01

    The impacts of climate change on air quality may affect long-term air quality planning. However, the policies aimed at improving air quality in the EU directives have not accounted for the variations in the climate. Climate change alone influences future air quality through modifications of gas-phase chemistry, transport, removal, and natural emissions. As such, the aim of this work is to check whether the projected changes in gas-phase air pollution over Europe depends on the scenario driving the regional simulation. For this purpose, two full-transient regional climate change-air quality projections for the first half of the XXI century (1991-2050) have been carried out with MM5+CHIMERE system, including A2 and B2 SRES scenarios. Experiments span the periods 1971-2000, as a reference, and 2071-2100, as future enhanced greenhouse gas and aerosol scenarios (SRES A2 and B2). The atmospheric simulations have a horizontal resolution of 25 km and 23 vertical layers up to 100 mb, and were driven by ECHO-G global climate model outputs. The analysis focuses on the connection between meteorological and air quality variables. Our simulations suggest that the modes of variability for tropospheric ozone and their main precursors hardly change under different SRES scenarios. The effect of changing scenarios has to be sought in the intensity of the changing signal, rather than in the spatial structure of the variation patterns, since the correlation between the spatial patterns of variability in A2 and B2 simulation is r > 0.75 for all gas-phase pollutants included in this study. In both cases, full-transient simulations indicate an enhanced enhanced chemical activity under future scenarios. The causes for tropospheric ozone variations have to be sought in a multiplicity of climate factors, such as increased temperature, different distribution of precipitation patterns across Europe, increased photolysis of primary and secondary pollutants due to lower cloudiness, etc

  3. Assessing magnitude probability distribution through physics-based rupture scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hok, Sébastien; Durand, Virginie; Bernard, Pascal; Scotti, Oona

    2016-04-01

    When faced with complex network of faults in a seismic hazard assessment study, the first question raised is to what extent the fault network is connected and what is the probability that an earthquake ruptures simultaneously a series of neighboring segments. Physics-based dynamic rupture models can provide useful insight as to which rupture scenario is most probable, provided that an exhaustive exploration of the variability of the input parameters necessary for the dynamic rupture modeling is accounted for. Given the random nature of some parameters (e.g. hypocenter location) and the limitation of our knowledge, we used a logic-tree approach in order to build the different scenarios and to be able to associate them with a probability. The methodology is applied to the three main faults located along the southern coast of the West Corinth rift. Our logic tree takes into account different hypothesis for: fault geometry, location of hypocenter, seismic cycle position, and fracture energy on the fault plane. The variability of these parameters is discussed, and the different values tested are weighted accordingly. 64 scenarios resulting from 64 parameter combinations were included. Sensitivity studies were done to illustrate which parameters control the variability of the results. Given the weight of the input parameters, we evaluated the probability to obtain a full network break to be 15 %, while single segment rupture represents 50 % of the scenarios. These rupture scenario probability distribution along the three faults of the West Corinth rift fault network can then be used as input to a seismic hazard calculation.

  4. Modeling the vulnerability of hydroelectricity generation under drought scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yan, E.; Tidwell, V. C.; Bizjack, M.; Espinoza, V.; Jared, A.

    2015-12-01

    Hydroelectricity generation highly relies on in-stream and reservoir water availability. The western US has recently experienced increasingly sever, frequent, and prolonged droughts resulting in significant water availability issues. A large number of hydropower plants in Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) are located in California River Basin and Pacific Northwest River Basin. In supporting the WECC's long-term transmission planning, a drought impact analysis was performed with a series of data and modeling tools. This presentation will demonstrate a case study for California River Basin, which has recently experienced one of the worst droughts in its history. The purpose of this study is to evaluate potential risk for hydroelectricity generation due to projected drought scenarios in the medium-term (through the year of 2030). On the basis of historical droughts and the projected drought year for 2020-2030, three drought scenarios were identified. The hydrologic model was constructed and calibrated to simulate evapotranspiration, streamflow, soil moisture, irrigation as well as reservoir storage and discharge based on various dam operation rules and targets under three drought scenarios. The model also incorporates the projected future water demand in 2030 (e.g. municipal, agricultural, electricity generation). The projected monthly reservoir discharges were used to predict the monthly hydropower generation for hydropower plants with a capacity greater than 50 MW in California River Basin for each drought scenario. The results from this study identify spatial distribution of vulnerable hydropower plants and watersheds as well as the level of potential reduction of electricity generation under various drought scenarios and provide valuable insights into future mitigation strategies and long-term planning.

  5. An analytical pressure-transient model for complex reservoir scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gomes, Edmond; Ambastha, Anil K.

    1994-10-01

    Reservoir deposition occurs through long periods of time, thus most reservoirs are heterogeneous in nature. The presence of various zones and layers of different rock and fluid properties is the usual circumstance in petroleum reservoirs. A secondary recovery operation, such as steam-flooding, results in a composite reservoir situation because of the presence of zones of different fluid properties. Because of reservoir heterogeneity and gravity override effects, fluid boundaries separating two zones may have complicated or irregular shapes. The purpose of this paper is to develop a new analytical pressure-transient model which can accommodate complex reservoir scenarios resulting from reservoir heterogeneity and from thermal recovery or other fluid-injection operations. Mathematically, our analytical model considers such complex situations as a generalized eigenvalue system resulting in a system of linear equations. Computational difficulties faced, validation approach of the new model, and an application for complex reservoir scenarios are discussed.

  6. Water Availability in Indus River at the Upper Indus Basin under Different Climate Change Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khan, Firdos; Pilz, Jürgen

    2015-04-01

    The last decade of the 20th century and the first decade of the 21st century showed that climate change or global warming is happening and the latter one is considered as the warmest decade over Pakistan ever in history where temperature reached 53 0C on May 26, 2010. The changing climate has impact on various areas including agriculture, water, health, among others. There are two main forces which have central role in changing climate: one is natural variability and the other one is human evoked changes, increasing the density of green house gases. The elements in the bunch of Energy-Food-Water are interlinked with one another and among them water plays a crucial role for the existence of the other two parts. This nexus is the central environmental issue around the globe generally, and is of particular importance in the developing countries. The study evaluated the importance and the availability of water in Indus River under different emission scenarios. Four emission scenarios are included, that is, the A2, B2, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. One way coupling of regional climate models (RCMs) and Hydrological model have been implemented in this study. The PRECIS (Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies) and CCAM (Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model) climate models and UBCWM (University of British Columbia Watershed Model) hydrological model are used for this purpose. It is observed that Indus River contributes 80 % of the hydro-power generation and contributes 44 % to available water annually in Pakistan. It is further investigated whether sufficient water will be available in the Indus River under climate change scenarios. Toward this goal, Tarbela Reservoir is used as a measurement tool using the parameters of the reservoir like maximum operating storage, dead level storage, discharge capacity of tunnels and spillways. The results of this study are extremely important for the economy of Pakistan in various key areas like agriculture, energy, industries and ecosystem

  7. Maximising the Effectiveness of a Scenario Planning Process: Tips for Scenario Planners in Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sayers, Nicola

    2011-01-01

    Scenario planning is a tool which can help organisations and people to think about, and plan for, the long-term future. In basic terms, it involves creating a number of in-depth scenarios (stories), each of which tells of a different possible future for an organisation or issue, and considering how each different future might influence…

  8. Overview of a new scenario framework for climate change research

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ebi, K. L.

    2013-12-01

    The scientific community is developing new integrated global, regional, and sectoral scenarios to facilitate interdisciplinary research and assessment to explore the range of possible future climates and related physical changes; the risks these could pose to human and natural systems, particularly how these changes could interact with social, economic, and environmental development pathways; the degree to which mitigation and adaptation policies can avoid and reduce the risks; the costs and benefits of various policy mixes; residual impacts under alternative pathways; and the relationship with sustainable development. Developing new scenarios for use in impacts, adaptation, and mitigation research requires more than emissions of greenhouse gases and resulting climate change. Scenarios also require assumptions about socioeconomic development, including a narrative, and qualitative and quantitative assumptions about development patterns. An insight recently gained is that the magnitude and extent of greenhouse gas emissions is relatively independent of demographic and socioeconomic development; that is, multiple demographic and socioeconomic development pathways can lead to any particular emission scenario. A relatively wealthy world with high population density could have low greenhouse gas emissions because of policies that encourage energy efficiency and sufficient low emission technology. The opposite also is plausible. Therefore, demographic and socioeconomic development pathways can be described separately from the Representative Concentration Pathways and then combined using a matrix architecture into a broader range of scenarios than was possible with the SRES. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) define the state of human and natural societies at a macro scale. To encompass a wide range of possible development pathways, five SSPs are defined along two axes describing worlds with increasing socioeconomic challenges to mitigation (y-axis) and adaptation (x

  9. Development and Application of Future Climate Scenarios for Natural Resource Management in Southwestern Colorado

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rangwala, I.; Rondeau, R.; Wyborn, C.; Clifford, K. R.; Travis, W.

    2015-12-01

    Locally relevant projections of climate change provide critical insights for natural resource managers seeking to adapt their management activities to climate change in the context of uncertainty. To provide such information, we developed climate scenarios, in form of narratives and quantitative information, of future climate change and its impacts in southwestern Colorado. This information was intended to provide detailed insights into the range of changes that natural resource managers may face in the future. The scenarios were developed in an iterative process through interactions among the ecologists, social and climate scientists. In our scenario development process, climate uncertainty is acknowledged by having multiple scenarios, where each scenario is regarded as a storyline with equal likelihood as another scenario. We quantified changes in several decision relevant climate and ecological responses based on our best available understanding and provided a tight storyline for each scenario to facilitate (a) a more augmented use of scientific information in a decision-making process, (b) differential responses from stakeholders across the different scenarios, and (c) identification of strategies that could work across these multiple scenarios. Here, we discuss the process of selecting the scenarios, quantifying climate and ecological responses, and the criteria for building the narrative for each scenario. We also discuss the process by which these scenarios get used, and provide an assessment of their effectiveness and users' feedbacks that could inform the future development of these tools and processes. This research involvement and collaboration occurred, in part, as a result of the PACE Fellowship Program that is associated with NOAA Climate Program Office and the U.S. CLIVAR community.

  10. Spatial precision vs large scale uncertainties in climate change scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dubrovsky, M.; Potuznikova, K.

    2009-04-01

    In assessing climate change impacts on various weather dependent processes, weather series representing changed climate are required as an input to the impact models (for example crop growth models). In producing these series, the weather generator (WG) is often employed: WG parameters are derived from the observed series and then modified using the climate change scenario, which defines changes in the relevant climatic characteristics. These scenarios use to be derived either from GCM or RCM simulations. An advantage of using RCMs (with respect to using GCMs) consists in higher spatial resolution of simulated processes and thereby in higher spatial precision of RCM-based climate change scenario. On the other hand, advantage of using GCM-based scenarios consists in larger number of available GCM simulations, which allows to better account for the uncertainty in larger-scale patterns of climate change. This contribution aims to contribute to the discussion on the usefulness of RCMs in developing the climate change scenarios. To show the significancy of high resolution RCM based spatial signal in changes in relevant climatic characteristics, this signal will be compared with the uncertainty in GCM-simulated larger scale patterns of change. The former RCM-based signal will be derived from the RCM simulations made for the PRUDENCE project, the latter GCM based uncertainty will be based on simulations from a larger number of GCMs. The results will be shown in terms of maps for a whole Europe. Acknowledgements: The study is supported by 6th FP EU research project CECILIA (no GOCE 037005) and GAAV grant agency (project IAA300420806 - "PRASCE").

  11. The Survival Effect in Memory: Does It Hold into Old Age and Non-Ancestral Scenarios?

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Lixia; Lau, Karen P. L.; Truong, Linda

    2014-01-01

    The survival effect in memory refers to the memory enhancement for materials encoded in reference to a survival scenario compared to those encoded in reference to a control scenario or with other encoding strategies [1]. The current study examined whether this effect is well maintained in old age by testing young (ages 18–29) and older adults (ages 65–87) on the survival effect in memory for words encoded in ancestral and/or non-ancestral modern survival scenarios relative to a non-survival control scenario. A pilot study was conducted to select the best matched comparison scenarios based on potential confounding variables, such as valence and arousal. Experiment 1 assessed the survival effect with a well-matched negative control scenario in both young and older adults. The results showed an age-equivalent survival effect across an ancestral and a non-ancestral modern survival scenario. Experiment 2 replicated the survival effect in both age groups with a positive control scenario. Taken together, the data suggest a robust survival effect that is well preserved in old age across ancestral and non-ancestral survival scenarios. PMID:24788755

  12. Radiation Protection for Lunar Mission Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Clowdsley, Martha S.; Nealy, John E.; Wilson, John W.; Anderson, Brooke M.; Anderson, Mark S.; Krizan, Shawn A.

    2005-01-01

    Preliminary analyses of shielding requirements to protect astronauts from the harmful effects of radiation on both short-term and long-term lunar missions have been performed. Shielding needs for both solar particle events (SPEs) and galactic cosmic ray (GCR) exposure are discussed for transit vehicles and surface habitats. This work was performed under the aegis of two NASA initiatives. The first study was an architecture trade study led by Langley Research Center (LaRC) in which a broad range of vehicle types and mission scenarios were compared. The radiation analysis for this study primarily focused on the additional shielding mass required to protect astronauts from the rare occurrence of a large SPE. The second study, led by Johnson Space Center (JSC), involved the design of lunar habitats. Researchers at LaRC were asked to evaluate the changes to mission architecture that would be needed if the surface stay were lengthened from a shorter mission duration of 30 to 90 days to a longer stay of 500 days. Here, the primary radiation concern was GCR exposure. The methods used for these studies as well as the resulting shielding recommendations are discussed. Recommendations are also made for more detailed analyses to minimize shielding mass, once preliminary vehicle and habitat designs have been completed. Here, methodologies are mapped out and available radiation analysis tools are described. Since, as yet, no dosimetric limits have been adopted for missions beyond low earth orbit (LEO), radiation exposures are compared to LEO limits. Uncertainties associated with the LEO career effective dose limits and the effects of lowering these limits on shielding mass are also discussed.

  13. Blacks' and Whites' Perceptions of Real-Life Scenarios: A Preliminary Investigation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brinson, Jesse A.; Morris, Joseph R.

    2001-01-01

    This study investigated the perceptual differences between Black and White counselor trainees toward 12 real-life scenarios featuring Black and White individuals. The authors hypothesized that the two groups would differ in their perceptions of most of the scenarios. The results reveal significant differences in perceptions on 4 out of 12…

  14. Exploring the Relationship between Scenario Planning and Perceptions of Learning Organization Characteristics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chermack, Thomas J.; Lynham, Susan A.; van der Merwe, Louis

    2006-01-01

    This article attempts to verify some assumptions evident in the scenario planning literature through the application of quantitative measures. The Dimensions of the Learning Organization Questionnaire is used to measure participant perceptions of the learning organization characteristics pre- and post-scenario planning intervention. Results are…

  15. Scenarios for Benefits Analysis of Energy Research, Development,Demonstration and Deployment

    SciTech Connect

    Gumerman, Etan; Marnay, Chris

    2005-09-07

    was that LBNL started working with the AEO 2004NEMS code and EIA was using AEO 2005 NEMS code. Unlike the High Price Scenario the Carbon Cap scenario gives a radically different forecast than the Reference Scenario. NEMS-LBNL proved that it can handle these alternative scenarios. However, results are price inelastic (for both oil and natural gas prices) within the price range evaluated. Perhaps even higher price paths would lead to a distinctly different forecast than the Reference Scenario. On the other hand, the Carbon Cap Scenario behaves more like an alternative future. The future in the Carbon Cap Scenario has higher electricity prices, reduced driving, more renewable capacity, and reduced energy consumption. The next step for this work is to evaluate the EE benefits under each of the three scenarios. Comparing those three sets of predicted benefits will indicate how much uncertainty is inherent within this sort of deterministic forecasting.

  16. Model and Scenario Variations in Predicted Number of Generations of Spodoptera litura Fab. on Peanut during Future Climate Change Scenario

    PubMed Central

    Srinivasa Rao, Mathukumalli; Swathi, Pettem; Rama Rao, Chitiprolu Anantha; Rao, K. V.; Raju, B. M. K.; Srinivas, Karlapudi; Manimanjari, Dammu; Maheswari, Mandapaka

    2015-01-01

    The present study features the estimation of number of generations of tobacco caterpillar, Spodoptera litura. Fab. on peanut crop at six locations in India using MarkSim, which provides General Circulation Model (GCM) of future data on daily maximum (T.max), minimum (T.min) air temperatures from six models viz., BCCR-BCM2.0, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.5, ECHams5, INCM-CM3.0 and MIROC3.2 along with an ensemble of the six from three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1). This data was used to predict the future pest scenarios following the growing degree days approach in four different climate periods viz., Baseline-1975, Near future (NF) -2020, Distant future (DF)-2050 and Very Distant future (VDF)—2080. It is predicted that more generations would occur during the three future climate periods with significant variation among scenarios and models. Among the seven models, 1–2 additional generations were predicted during DF and VDF due to higher future temperatures in CNRM-CM3, ECHams5 & CSIRO-Mk3.5 models. The temperature projections of these models indicated that the generation time would decrease by 18–22% over baseline. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to partition the variation in the predicted number of generations and generation time of S. litura on peanut during crop season. Geographical location explained 34% of the total variation in number of generations, followed by time period (26%), model (1.74%) and scenario (0.74%). The remaining 14% of the variation was explained by interactions. Increased number of generations and reduction of generation time across the six peanut growing locations of India suggest that the incidence of S. litura may increase due to projected increase in temperatures in future climate change periods. PMID:25671564

  17. Model and scenario variations in predicted number of generations of Spodoptera litura Fab. on peanut during future climate change scenario.

    PubMed

    Rao, Mathukumalli Srinivasa; Swathi, Pettem; Rao, Chitiprolu Anantha Rama; Rao, K V; Raju, B M K; Srinivas, Karlapudi; Manimanjari, Dammu; Maheswari, Mandapaka

    2015-01-01

    The present study features the estimation of number of generations of tobacco caterpillar, Spodoptera litura. Fab. on peanut crop at six locations in India using MarkSim, which provides General Circulation Model (GCM) of future data on daily maximum (T.max), minimum (T.min) air temperatures from six models viz., BCCR-BCM2.0, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.5, ECHams5, INCM-CM3.0 and MIROC3.2 along with an ensemble of the six from three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1). This data was used to predict the future pest scenarios following the growing degree days approach in four different climate periods viz., Baseline-1975, Near future (NF) -2020, Distant future (DF)-2050 and Very Distant future (VDF)-2080. It is predicted that more generations would occur during the three future climate periods with significant variation among scenarios and models. Among the seven models, 1-2 additional generations were predicted during DF and VDF due to higher future temperatures in CNRM-CM3, ECHams5 & CSIRO-Mk3.5 models. The temperature projections of these models indicated that the generation time would decrease by 18-22% over baseline. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to partition the variation in the predicted number of generations and generation time of S. litura on peanut during crop season. Geographical location explained 34% of the total variation in number of generations, followed by time period (26%), model (1.74%) and scenario (0.74%). The remaining 14% of the variation was explained by interactions. Increased number of generations and reduction of generation time across the six peanut growing locations of India suggest that the incidence of S. litura may increase due to projected increase in temperatures in future climate change periods.

  18. A Scenario for the Future of Museums

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cunningham, Mary Kay

    2009-01-01

    More than any other staff member, museum educators' knowledge and experience working with visitors make them uniquely qualified to take on leadership roles as museums transform themselves into lifelong learning organizations. The article encourages museum educators to initiate discussions about change by offering a fictional scenario of future…

  19. Probabilistic Simulation of Territorial Seismic Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Baratta, Alessandro; Corbi, Ileana

    2008-07-08

    The paper is focused on a stochastic process for the prevision of seismic scenarios on the territory and developed by means of some basic assumptions in the procedure and by elaborating the fundamental parameters recorded during some ground motions occurred in a seismic area.

  20. Wiki Based Collaborative Learning in Interuniversity Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Katzlinger, Elisabeth; Herzog, Michael A.

    2014-01-01

    In business education advanced collaboration skills and media literacy are important for surviving in a globalized business where virtual communication between enterprises is part of the day-by-day business. To transform these global working situations into higher education, a learning scenario between two universities in Germany and Austria was…

  1. Future Scenarios for Mobile Science Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burden, Kevin; Kearney, Matthew

    2016-01-01

    This paper adopts scenario planning as a methodological approach and tool to help science educators reconceptualise their use of mobile technologies across various different futures. These "futures" are set out neither as predictions nor prognoses but rather as stimuli to encourage greater discussion and reflection around the use of…

  2. Linguistic evaluation of terrorist scenarios: example application.

    SciTech Connect

    Darby, John L.

    2007-03-01

    In 2005, a group of international decision makers developed a manual process for evaluating terrorist scenarios. That process has been implemented in the approximate reasoning Java software tool, LinguisticBelief, released in FY2007. One purpose of this report is to show the flexibility of the LinguisticBelief tool to automate a custom model developed by others. LinguisticBelief evaluates combinations of linguistic variables using an approximate reasoning rule base. Each variable is comprised of fuzzy sets, and a rule base describes the reasoning on combinations of variables fuzzy sets. Uncertainty is considered and propagated through the rule base using the belief/plausibility measure. This report documents the evaluation and rank-ordering of several example terrorist scenarios for the existing process implemented in our software. LinguisticBelief captures and propagates uncertainty and allows easy development of an expanded, more detailed evaluation, neither of which is feasible using a manual evaluation process. In conclusion, the Linguistic-Belief tool is able to (1) automate an expert-generated reasoning process for the evaluation of the risk of terrorist scenarios, including uncertainty, and (2) quickly evaluate and rank-order scenarios of concern using that process.

  3. Flooding Capability for River-based Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Curtis L.; Prescott, Steven; Ryan, Emerald; Calhoun, Donna; Sampath, Ramprasad; Anderson, S. Danielle; Casteneda, Cody

    2015-10-01

    This report describes the initial investigation into modeling and simulation tools for application of riverine flooding representation as part of the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway external hazards evaluations. The report provides examples of different flooding conditions and scenarios that could impact river and watershed systems. Both 2D and 3D modeling approaches are described.

  4. Risk Appraisal in Scripted Acquaintance Rape Scenarios.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wright, Doris J.

    Cognitive appraisals are believed to influence how women judge or appraise risk in acquaintance interactions which lead to sexual assault. Ways in which men and women judge the presence of risk factors in scripted acquaintance rape scenarios, and whether alcohol was a significant factor in assessing risk, are examined in this paper. Participants…

  5. Using Scenarios and Simulations to Plan Colleges

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McIntyre, Chuck

    2004-01-01

    Using a case study, this article describes a method by which higher education institutions construct and use multiple future scenarios and simulations to plan strategically: to create visions of their futures, chart broad directions (mission and goals), and select learning and delivery strategies so as to achieve those broad directions. The…

  6. Biomass round bales infield aggregation logistic scenarios

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Biomass bales often need to be aggregated (collected into groups and transported) to a field-edge stack for temporary storage for feedlots or processing facilities. Aggregating the bales with the least total distance involved is a goal of producers and bale handlers. Several logistics scenarios for ...

  7. Alternative scenarios to meet the demands of sustainable waste management.

    PubMed

    Bovea, M D; Powell, J C

    2006-04-01

    This paper analyses different alternatives for solid waste management that can be implemented to enable the targets required by the European Landfill and Packaging and Packaging Waste Directives to be achieved in the Valencian Community, on the east coast of Spain. The methodology applied to evaluate the environmental performance of each alternative is Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). The analysis has been performed at two levels; first, the emissions accounted for in the inventory stage have been arranged into impact categories to obtain an indicator for each category; and secondly, the weighting of environmental data to a single unit has been applied. Despite quantitative differences between the results obtained with four alternative impact assessment methods, the same preference ranking has been established: scenarios with energy recovery (1v and 2v) achieve major improvements compared to baseline, with scenario 1v being better than 2v for all impact assessment methods except for the EPS'00 method, which obtains better results for scenario 2v. Sensitivity analysis has been used to test some of the assumptions used in the initial life cycle inventory model but none have a significant effect on the overall results. As a result, the best alternative to the existing waste management system can be identified. PMID:16202507

  8. Overview of the ARkStorm scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Porter, Keith; Wein, Anne; Alpers, Charles; Baez, Allan; Barnard, Patrick L.; Carter, James; Corsi, Alessandra; Costner, James; Cox, Dale; Das, Tapash; Dettinger, Mike; Done, James; Eadie, Charles; Eymann, Marcia; Ferris, Justin; Gunturi, Prasad; Hughes, Mimi; Jarrett, Robert; Johnson, Laurie; Le-Griffin, Hanh Dam; Mitchell, David; Morman, Suzette; Neiman, Paul; Olsen, Anna; Perry, Suzanne; Plumlee, Geoffrey; Ralph, Martin; Reynolds, David; Rose, Adam; Schaefer, Kathleen; Serakos, Julie; Siembieda, William; Stock, Jonathan; Strong, David; Wing, Ian Sue; Tang, Alex; Thomas, Pete; Topping, Ken; Wills, Chris; Jones, Lucile

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey, Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) uses hazards science to improve resiliency of communities to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages emergency planners, businesses, universities, government agencies, and others in preparing for major natural disasters. The project also helps to set research goals and provides decision-making information for loss reduction and improved resiliency. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. This detailed depiction of a hypothetical magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California served as the centerpiece of the largest earthquake drill in United States history, involving over 5,000 emergency responders and the participation of over 5.5 million citizens. This document summarizes the next major public project for MHDP, a winter storm scenario called ARkStorm (for Atmospheric River 1,000). Experts have designed a large, scientifically realistic meteorological event followed by an examination of the secondary hazards (for example, landslides and flooding), physical damages to the built environment, and social and economic consequences. The hypothetical storm depicted here would strike the U.S. West Coast and be similar to the intense California winter storms of 1861 and 1862 that left the central valley of California impassible. The storm is estimated to produce precipitation that in many places exceeds levels only experienced on average once every 500 to 1,000 years. Extensive flooding results. In many cases flooding overwhelms the state's flood-protection system, which is typically designed to resist 100- to 200-year runoffs. The Central Valley experiences hypothetical flooding 300 miles long and 20 or more miles wide. Serious flooding also occurs in Orange County, Los Angeles County, San Diego, the San Francisco Bay area, and other

  9. Hydropower and water supply: competing water uses under a future drier climate modeling scenarios for the Tagus River basin, Portugal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alexandre Diogo, Paulo; Nunes, João Pedro; Carmona Rodrigues, António; João Cruz, Maria; Grosso, Nuno

    2014-05-01

    Climate change in the Mediterranean region is expected to affect existing water resources, both in quantity and quality, as decreased mean annual precipitation and more frequent extreme precipitation events are likely to occur. Also, energy needs tend to increase, together with growing awareness that fossil fuels emissions are determinately responsible for global temperature rise, enhancing renewable energy use and reinforcing the importance of hydropower. When considered together, these facts represent a relevant threat to multipurpose reservoir operations. Great Lisbon main water supply (for c.a. 3 million people), managed by EPAL, is located in Castelo de Bode Reservoir, in the Tagus River affluent designated as Zêzere River. Castelo de Bode is a multipurpose infrastructure as it is also part of the hydropower network system of EDP, the main power company in Portugal. Facing the risk of potential climate change impacts on water resources availability, and as part of a wider project promoted by EPAL (designated as ADAPTACLIMA), climate change impacts on the Zêzere watershed where evaluated based on climate change scenarios for the XXI century. A sequential modeling approach was used and included downscaling climate data methodologies, hydrological modeling, volume reservoir simulations and water quality modeling. The hydrological model SWAT was used to predict the impacts of the A2 and B2 scenarios in 2010-2100, combined with changes in socio-economic drivers such as land use and water demands. Reservoir storage simulations where performed according to hydrological modeling results, water supply needs and dam operational requirements, such as minimum and maximum operational pool levels and turbine capacity. The Ce-Qual-W2 water quality model was used to assess water quality impacts. According to climate scenarios A2 and B2, rainfall decreases between 10 and 18% are expected by 2100, leading to drier climatic conditions and increased frequency and magnitude of

  10. Probabilistic scenario-based water resource planning and management:A case study in the Yellow River Basin, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dong, C.; Schoups, G.; van de Giesen, N.

    2012-04-01

    Water resource planning and management is subject to large uncertainties with respect to the impact of climate change and socio-economic development on water systems. In order to deal with these uncertainties, probabilistic climate and socio-economic scenarios were developed based on the Principle of Maximum Entropy, as defined within information theory, and as inputs to hydrological models to construct probabilistic water scenarios using Monte Carlo simulation. Probabilistic scenarios provide more explicit information than equally-likely scenarios for decision-making in water resource management. A case was developed for the Yellow River Basin, China, where future water availability and water demand are affected by both climate change and socio-economic development. Climate scenarios of future precipitation and temperature were developed based on the results of multiple Global climate models; and socio-economic scenarios were downscaled from existing large-scale scenarios. Probability distributions were assigned to these scenarios to explicitly represent a full set of future possibilities. Probabilistic climate scenarios were used as input to a rainfall-runoff model to simulate future river discharge and socio-economic scenarios for calculating water demand. A full set of possible future water supply-demand scenarios and their associated probability distributions were generated. This set can feed the further analysis of the future water balance, which can be used as a basis to plan and manage water resources in the Yellow River Basin. Key words: Probabilistic scenarios, climate change, socio-economic development, water management

  11. Potential release scenarios for carbon nanotubes used in composites.

    PubMed

    Nowack, Bernd; David, Raymond M; Fissan, Heinz; Morris, Howard; Shatkin, Jo Anne; Stintz, Michael; Zepp, Richard; Brouwer, Derk

    2013-09-01

    The expected widespread use of carbon nanotube (CNT)-composites in consumer products calls for an assessment of the possible release and exposure to workers, consumers and the environment. Release of CNTs may occur at all steps in the life cycle of products, but to date only limited information is available about release of CNTs from actual products and articles. As a starting point for exposure assessment, exploring sources and pathways of release helps to identify relevant applications and situations where the environment and especially humans may encounter releases of CNTs. It is the aim of this review to identify various potential release scenarios for CNTs used in polymers and identify the greatest likelihood of release at the various stages throughout the life-cycle of the product. The available information on release of CNTs from products and articles is reviewed in a first part. In a second part nine relevant release scenarios are described in detail: injection molding, manufacturing, sports equipment, electronics, windmill blades, fuel system components, tires, textiles, incineration, and landfills. Release from products can potentially occur by two pathways; (a) where free CNTs are released directly, or more frequently (b) where the initial release is a particle with CNTs embedded in the matrix, potentially followed by the subsequent release of CNTs from the matrix. The potential for release during manufacturing exists for all scenarios, however, this is also the situation when exposure can be best controlled. For most of the other life cycle stages and their corresponding release scenarios, potential release of CNTs can be considered to be low, but it cannot be excluded totally. Direct release to the environment is also considered to be very low for most scenarios except for the use of CNTs in tires where significant abrasion during use and release into the environment would occur. Also the possible future use of CNTs in textiles could result in consumer

  12. The Thames Gateway: planning policy and flood risk scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eldridge, Jillian; Horn, Diane

    2010-05-01

    The Thames Gateway, currently Europe's largest regeneration project, presents a valuable case study area in which to examine the interrelated issues of planning policy, flood risk and insurance loss potential. The region is typified by a significant exposure to flooding due to its location, which as developments proceed, could result in increased areas of vulnerability with consequential insurance loss and hotspots of risk. With 160,000 new homes planned by 2016, positive use of planning policy is fundamental in minimising potential flood risk as well as ensuring long term economic and social goals can be met. This project focuses on several planning scenarios within the Gateway for the areas of Barking and Medway, and models flood risk using a commercial flood model to develop the flood risk under alternative planning policy scenarios. The two areas chosen demonstrate major regeneration and redevelopment sites located on Thames tidal floodplain. The areas are protected by flood defences although are both downstream of the Thames Barrier. However, it is expected that defences will be maintained and upgraded over the next several years, particularly in the Medway, which is currently protected to a lower level than most other areas in the Thames Gateway. The progress of development is more advanced in Barking with the major regeneration site, Barking Riverside, hosting 2000 new homes. The study sites have been chosen based on their location and proximity to the Thames and allow for an analysis of planning policy and its influence in minimising risk into the future. The reflected change in flood risk due to both the planned developments and flood defences will help to understand change in risk over time and the intricacies expected with delivering planning policy in a multi-governed area subject to conflicting objectives. Flood risk for both sites are modelled using a commercial flood model to estimate flood risk based on several flood scenarios for both current and

  13. Potential release scenarios for carbon nanotubes used in composites.

    PubMed

    Nowack, Bernd; David, Raymond M; Fissan, Heinz; Morris, Howard; Shatkin, Jo Anne; Stintz, Michael; Zepp, Richard; Brouwer, Derk

    2013-09-01

    The expected widespread use of carbon nanotube (CNT)-composites in consumer products calls for an assessment of the possible release and exposure to workers, consumers and the environment. Release of CNTs may occur at all steps in the life cycle of products, but to date only limited information is available about release of CNTs from actual products and articles. As a starting point for exposure assessment, exploring sources and pathways of release helps to identify relevant applications and situations where the environment and especially humans may encounter releases of CNTs. It is the aim of this review to identify various potential release scenarios for CNTs used in polymers and identify the greatest likelihood of release at the various stages throughout the life-cycle of the product. The available information on release of CNTs from products and articles is reviewed in a first part. In a second part nine relevant release scenarios are described in detail: injection molding, manufacturing, sports equipment, electronics, windmill blades, fuel system components, tires, textiles, incineration, and landfills. Release from products can potentially occur by two pathways; (a) where free CNTs are released directly, or more frequently (b) where the initial release is a particle with CNTs embedded in the matrix, potentially followed by the subsequent release of CNTs from the matrix. The potential for release during manufacturing exists for all scenarios, however, this is also the situation when exposure can be best controlled. For most of the other life cycle stages and their corresponding release scenarios, potential release of CNTs can be considered to be low, but it cannot be excluded totally. Direct release to the environment is also considered to be very low for most scenarios except for the use of CNTs in tires where significant abrasion during use and release into the environment would occur. Also the possible future use of CNTs in textiles could result in consumer

  14. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

    2016-09-01

    Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit

  15. Scenario based approach for multiple source Tsunami Hazard assessment for Sines, Portugal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wronna, M.; Omira, R.; Baptista, M. A.

    2015-08-01

    In this paper, we present a scenario-based approach for tsunami hazard assessment for the city and harbour of Sines - Portugal, one of the test-sites of project ASTARTE. Sines holds one of the most important deep-water ports which contains oil-bearing, petrochemical, liquid bulk, coal and container terminals. The port and its industrial infrastructures are facing the ocean southwest towards the main seismogenic sources. This work considers two different seismic zones: the Southwest Iberian Margin and the Gloria Fault. Within these two regions, we selected a total of six scenarios to assess the tsunami impact at the test site. The tsunami simulations are computed using NSWING a Non-linear Shallow Water Model With Nested Grids. In this study, the static effect of tides is analysed for three different tidal stages MLLW (mean lower low water), MSL (mean sea level) and MHHW (mean higher high water). For each scenario, inundation is described by maximum values of wave height, flow depth, drawback, runup and inundation distance. Synthetic waveforms are computed at virtual tide gauges at specific locations outside and inside the harbour. The final results describe the impact at Sines test site considering the single scenarios at mean sea level, the aggregate scenario and the influence of the tide on the aggregate scenario. The results confirm the composite of Horseshoe and Marques Pombal fault as the worst case scenario. It governs the aggregate scenario with about 60 % and inundates an area of 3.5 km2.

  16. Visual unified modeling language for the composition of scenarios in modeling and simulation systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Talbert, Michael L.; Swayne, Daniel E.

    2006-05-01

    The Department of Defense uses modeling and simulation systems in many various roles, from research and training to modeling likely outcomes of command decisions. Simulation systems have been increasing in complexity with the increased capability of low-cost computer systems to support these DOD requirements. The demand for scenarios is also increasing, but the complexity of the simulation systems has caused a bottleneck in scenario development due to the limited number of individuals with knowledge of the arcane simulator languages in which these scenarios are written. This research combines the results of previous efforts from the Air Force Institute of Technology in visual modeling languages to create a language that unifies description of entities within a scenario with its behavior using a visual tool that was developed in the course of this research. The resulting language has a grammar and syntax that can be parsed from the visual representation of the scenario. The language is designed so that scenarios can be described in a generic manner, not tied to a specific simulation system, allowing the future development of modules to translate the generic scenario into simulation system specific scenarios.

  17. Systems analysis of past, present, and future chemical terrorism scenarios.

    SciTech Connect

    Hoette, Trisha Marie

    2012-03-01

    Throughout history, as new chemical threats arose, strategies for the defense against chemical attacks have also evolved. As a part of an Early Career Laboratory Directed Research and Development project, a systems analysis of past, present, and future chemical terrorism scenarios was performed to understand how the chemical threats and attack strategies change over time. For the analysis, the difficulty in executing chemical attack was evaluated within a framework of three major scenario elements. First, historical examples of chemical terrorism were examined to determine how the use of chemical threats, versus other weapons, contributed to the successful execution of the attack. Using the same framework, the future of chemical terrorism was assessed with respect to the impact of globalization and new technologies. Finally, the efficacy of the current defenses against contemporary chemical terrorism was considered briefly. The results of this analysis justify the need for continued diligence in chemical defense.

  18. International policy implications of abrupt climate change scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Molitor, M.R.

    1997-12-31

    New theoretical and empirical evidence supports the view that in the recent past [Holocene] abrupt climate changes occurred over very short [decadal] time periods. One leading possibility of future changes involves the North Atlantic Ocean conveyor that transfers warm surface waters from the equator to northern latitudes and helps maintain Europe`s climate. The predicted abrupt climate change scenario theorizes that the conveyor may be modified as a result of disruption of the thermohaline circulation driving North, Atlantic Deep Water. This would lead, the theory contends, to a rapid cooling of Europe`s climate. In light of the EPCC`s 1995 Second Assessment Report conclusion that there is a {open_quotes}discernible{close_quotes} human influence on the global climate system, there are many emerging questions concerning possible abrupt climate change scenarios.

  19. Estimating surface faulting impacts from the shakeout scenario earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Treiman, J.A.; Pontib, D.J.

    2011-01-01

    An earthquake scenario, based on a kinematic rupture model, has been prepared for a Mw 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. The rupture distribution, in the context of other historic large earthquakes, is judged reasonable for the purposes of this scenario. This model is used as the basis for generating a surface rupture map and for assessing potential direct impacts on lifelines and other infrastructure. Modeling the surface rupture involves identifying fault traces on which to place the rupture, assigning slip values to the fault traces, and characterizing the specific displacements that would occur to each lifeline impacted by the rupture. Different approaches were required to address variable slip distribution in response to a variety of fault patterns. Our results, involving judgment and experience, represent one plausible outcome and are not predictive because of the variable nature of surface rupture. ?? 2011, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  20. Asian water futures - Multi scenarios, models and criteria assessment -

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Satoh, Yusuke; Burek, Peter; Wada, Yoshihide; Flrörke, Martina; Eisner, Stephanie; Hanasaki, Naota; Kahil, Taher; Tramberend, Sylvia; Fischer, Günther; Wiberg, David

    2016-04-01

    A better understanding of the current and future availability of water resources is essential for the implementation of the recently agreed Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Long-term/efficient strategies for coping with current and potential future water-related challenges are urgently required. Although Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) were develop for the impact assessment of climate change, very few assessments have yet used the SSPs to assess water resources. Then the IIASA Water Futures and Solutions Initiative (WFaS), developed a set of water use scenarios consistent with RCPs and SSPs and applying the latest climate changes scenarios. Here this study focuses on results for Asian countries for the period 2010-2050. We present three conceivable future pathways of Asian water resources, determined by feasible combinations of two RCPs and three SSPs. Such a scenario approach provides valuable insights towards identifying appropriate strategies as gaps between a "scenario world" and reality. In addition, for the assessment of future water resources a multi-criteria analysis is applied. A classification system for countries and watershed that consists of two broad dimensions: (i) economic and institutional adaptive capacity, (ii) hydrological complexity. The latter is composed of several sub-indexes including total renewable water resources per capita, the ratio of water demand to renewable water resource, variability of runoff and dependency ratio to external. Furthermore, this analysis uses a multi-model approach to estimate runoff and discharge using 5 GCMs and 5 global hydrological models (GHMs). Three of these GHMs calculate water use based on a consistent set of scenarios in addition to water availability. As a result, we have projected hot spots of water scarcity in Asia and their spatial and temporal change. For example, in a scenario based on SSP2 and RCP6.0, by 2050, in total 2.1 billion people

  1. Itinerant scenario for Fe pnictides: Comparison with quantum Monte Carlo

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chubukov, Andrey V.; Xing, Rui-Qi

    2016-04-01

    Recent applications of quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) technique to Fe-based superconductors opened a way to directly verify the applicability of the itinerant scenario for these systems. Fe-based superconductors undergo various instabilities upon lowering temperature (magnetism, superconductivity, nematicity/orbital order), and one can check whether the hierarchy of instabilities obtained within the itinerant approach is the same as in unbiased QMC simulations. In a recent paper [arXiv:1512.08523] the authors considered the simplest two-band model with interaction tailored to favor orbital order. The type of the orbital order found in QMC is different from the one found in earlier itinerant analysis. We report the results of our calculations within the itinerant scenario and argue that they are in perfect agreement with QMC.

  2. Solving and Learning Soft Temporal Constraints: Experimental Scenario and Examples

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rossi, F.; Venable, K. B.; Sperduti, A.; Khatib, L.; Morris, P.; Morris, R.; Koga, Dennis (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Soft temporal constraint problems allow to describe in a natural way scenarios where events happen over time and preferences are associated to event distances and durations. However, sometimes such local preferences are difficult to set, and it may be easier instead to associate preferences to some complete solutions of the problem. To model everything in a uniform way via local preferences only, and also to take advantage of the existing constraint solvers which exploit only local preference use machine learning techniques which learn the local preferences from the global ones. In this paper we describe the existing framework for both solving and learning preferences in temporal constraint problems, the implemented modules, the experimental scenario, and preliminary results on some examples.

  3. Police lie detection accuracy: the effect of lie scenario.

    PubMed

    O'Sullivan, Maureen; Frank, Mark G; Hurley, Carolyn M; Tiwana, Jaspreet

    2009-12-01

    Although most people are not better than chance in detecting deception, some groups of police professionals have demonstrated significant lie detection accuracy. One reason for this difference may be that the types of lies police are asked to judge in scientific experiments often do not represent the types of lies they see in their profession. Across 23 studies, involving 31 different police groups in eight countries, police officers tested with lie detection scenarios using high stakes lies (i.e., the lie was personally involving and/or resulted in substantial rewards or punishments for the liar) were significantly more accurate than law enforcement officials tested with low stakes lies. Face validity and construct validity of various lie scenarios are differentiated.

  4. Impact of W on scenario simulations for ITER

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hogeweij, G. M. D.; Leonov, V.; Schweinzer, J.; Sips, A. C. C.; Angioni, C.; Calabrò, G.; Dux, R.; Kallenbach, A.; Lerche, E.; Maggi, C.; Pütterich, Th.; ITPA Integrated Operating Scenarios topical Group; ASDEX Upgrade Team; Contributors, JET

    2015-06-01

    In preparation of ITER operation, large machines have replaced their wall and divertor material to W (ASDEX Upgrade) or a combination of Be for the wall and W for the divertor (JET). Operation in these machines has shown that the influx of W can have a significant impact on the discharge evolution, which has made modelling of this impact for ITER an urgent task. This paper reports on such modelling efforts. Maximum tolerable W concentrations have been determined for various scenarios, both for the current ramp-up and flat-top phase. Results of two independent methods are presented, based on the codes ZIMPUR plus ASTRA and CRONOS, respectively. Both methods have been tested and benchmarked against ITER-like Ip RU experiments at JET. It is found that W significantly disturbs the discharge evolution when the W concentration approaches ˜10-4 this critical level varies somewhat between scenarios.

  5. Medicine in 2035: Selected Insights From ACGME's Scenario Planning.

    PubMed

    Nasca, Thomas J; Thomas, Charles W

    2015-03-01

    The Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) has the responsibility for overseeing the preparation of future physician specialists and subspecialists to serve the American public. To ensure ACGME's ability to adapt and sustain its accreditation activities in a future marked by significant uncertainty, its administration and board of directors embarked on a planning process that would frame its strategic actions in support of this responsibility. We describe the scenario planning process, and report key insights that resulted from it. We also discuss in greater depth a subset of those insights, which challenge certain conventional truths, call for new collaborative directions for the ACGME, and reaffirm the importance of professionalism in service of the public across all future scenarios evaluated. PMID:26217449

  6. Gauge mediation scenario with hidden sector renormalization in MSSM

    SciTech Connect

    Arai, Masato; Okada, Nobuchika

    2010-02-01

    We study the hidden sector effects on the mass renormalization of a simplest gauge-mediated supersymmetry breaking scenario. We point out that possible hidden sector contributions render the soft scalar masses smaller, resulting in drastically different sparticle mass spectrum at low energy. In particular, in the 5+5 minimal gauge-mediated supersymmetry breaking with high messenger scale (that is favored by the gravitino cold dark matter scenario), we show that a stau can be the next lightest superparticle for moderate values of hidden sector self-coupling. This provides a very simple theoretical model of long-lived charged next lightest superparticles, which imply distinctive signals in ongoing and upcoming collider experiments.

  7. Pattern Scaling for Developing Change Scenarios in Water Supply Studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anandhi, A.; Pierson, D.; Frie, A.

    2014-12-01

    Change factor methodology (CFM), or delta change factor methodology, is a type of pattern scaling. Although a variety of methods are available to develop scenarios, CFMs are widely used for their ease and speed of application and their capability to directly scale local data according to changes suggested by the global climate model (GCM) scenarios. Change factors (CFs) can be calculated and used in a number of ways to estimate future climate scenarios, but no clear guidelines are available in the literature to decide which methodologies are most suitable for different applications. This study compares and contrasts several categories of CFM (additive versus multiplicative and single versus multiple) for a number of climate variables. The study employs several theoretical examples as well as an applied study from the New York City water supply. Results show that in cases where the frequency distribution of the GCM baseline climate is close to the frequency distribution of the observed climate, or when the frequency distribution of the GCM future climate is close to the frequency distribution of the GCM baseline climate, additive and multiplicative single CFMs provide comparable results. Two options to guide the choice of CFM are suggested: the first is a detailed methodological analysis for choosing the most appropriate CFM, and the second is a default method for circumstances in which a detailed methodological analysis is too cumbersome.

  8. Land-use impacts on water resources and protected areas: applications of state-and-transition simulation modeling of future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilson, T. S.; Sleeter, B. M.; Sherba, J.; Cameron, D.

    2014-12-01

    Human land use will increasingly contribute to habitat losses and water shortages in California, given future population projections and associated demand for agricultural land. Understanding how land-use change may impact future water use and where existing protected areas may be threatened by land-use conversion will be important if effective, sustainable management approaches are to be implemented. We used a state-and-transition simulation modeling (STSM) framework to simulate spatially-explicit (1 km2) historical (1992-2010) and future (2011-2060) land-use change for 52 California counties within the Mediterranean California ecoregion. Historical land use change estimates were derived from the Farmland Mapping and Monitoring Program (FMMP) dataset and attributed with county-level agricultural water-use data from the California Department of Water Resources (CDWR). Six future alternative land-use scenarios were developed and modeled using the historical land-use change estimates and land-use projections based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B1 scenarios. Resulting spatial land-use scenario outputs were combined based on scenario agreement and a land conversion threat index developed to evaluate vulnerability of existing protected areas. Modeled scenario output of county-level agricultural water use data were also summarized, enabling examination of alternative water use futures. We present results of two separate applications of STSM of land-use change, demonstrating the utility of STSM in analyzing land-use related impacts on water resources as well as potential threats to existing protected land. Exploring a range of alternative, yet plausible, land-use change impacts will help to better inform resource management and mitigation strategies.

  9. River flood risk in Jakarta under scenarios of future change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Budiyono, Yus; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Tollenaar, Daniel; Ward, Philip J.

    2016-03-01

    Given the increasing impacts of flooding in Jakarta, methods for assessing current and future flood risk are required. In this paper, we use the Damagescanner-Jakarta risk model to project changes in future river flood risk under scenarios of climate change, land subsidence, and land use change. Damagescanner-Jakarta is a simple flood risk model that estimates flood risk in terms of annual expected damage, based on input maps of flood hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. We estimate baseline flood risk at USD 186 million p.a. Combining all future scenarios, we simulate a median increase in risk of +180 % by 2030. The single driver with the largest contribution to that increase is land subsidence (+126 %). We simulated the impacts of climate change by combining two scenarios of sea level rise with simulations of changes in 1-day extreme precipitation totals from five global climate models (GCMs) forced by the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The results are highly uncertain; the median change in risk due to climate change alone by 2030 is a decrease by -46 %, but we simulate an increase in risk under 12 of the 40 GCM-RCP-sea level rise combinations. Hence, we developed probabilistic risk scenarios to account for this uncertainty. If land use change by 2030 takes places according to the official Jakarta Spatial Plan 2030, risk could be reduced by 12 %. However, if land use change in the future continues at the same rate as the last 30 years, large increases in flood risk will take place. Finally, we discuss the relevance of the results for flood risk management in Jakarta.

  10. Ocean acidification and warming scenarios increase microbioerosion of coral skeletons.

    PubMed

    Reyes-Nivia, Catalina; Diaz-Pulido, Guillermo; Kline, David; Guldberg, Ove-Hoegh; Dove, Sophie

    2013-06-01

    Biological mediation of carbonate dissolution represents a fundamental component of the destructive forces acting on coral reef ecosystems. Whereas ocean acidification can increase dissolution of carbonate substrates, the combined impact of ocean acidification and warming on the microbioerosion of coral skeletons remains unknown. Here, we exposed skeletons of the reef-building corals, Porites cylindrica and Isopora cuneata, to present-day (Control: 400 μatm - 24 °C) and future pCO2 -temperature scenarios projected for the end of the century (Medium: +230 μatm - +2 °C; High: +610 μatm - +4 °C). Skeletons were also subjected to permanent darkness with initial sodium hypochlorite incubation, and natural light without sodium hypochlorite incubation to isolate the environmental effect of acidic seawater (i.e., Ωaragonite <1) from the biological effect of photosynthetic microborers. Our results indicated that skeletal dissolution is predominantly driven by photosynthetic microborers, as samples held in the dark did not decalcify. In contrast, dissolution of skeletons exposed to light increased under elevated pCO2 -temperature scenarios, with P. cylindrica experiencing higher dissolution rates per month (89%) than I. cuneata (46%) in the high treatment relative to control. The effects of future pCO2 -temperature scenarios on the structure of endolithic communities were only identified in P. cylindrica and were mostly associated with a higher abundance of the green algae Ostreobium spp. Enhanced skeletal dissolution was also associated with increased endolithic biomass and respiration under elevated pCO2 -temperature scenarios. Our results suggest that future projections of ocean acidification and warming will lead to increased rates of microbioerosion. However, the magnitude of bioerosion responses may depend on the structural properties of coral skeletons, with a range of implications for reef carbonate losses under warmer and more acidic oceans.

  11. Occupational health scenario of Indian informal sector

    PubMed Central

    NAG, Anjali; VYAS, Heer; NAG, Pranab

    2016-01-01

    Workers in the Indian informal sector are engaged with different occupations. These occupations involve varied work related hazards. These occupational hazards are a consequent risk to health. The study aimed to determine occupational health scenario in the Indian Informal sector. One thousand eleven hundred twenty two workers from five different occupations namely weaving (handloom and power loom), construction, transportation, tobacco processing and fish processing were assessed by interviewer administered health questionnaire. Workers suffered from musculo-skeletal complaints, respiratory health hazards, eye problems and skin related complaints. There was a high prevalence of self-reported occupational health problems in the selected sectors. The study finds that workers have occupational exposures to multiple hazards. The absence of protective guards aggrevate their health condition. The study attempts to draws an immediate attention on the existing health scenario of the Indian Informal sector. PMID:26903262

  12. Curvaton scenarios with inflaton decays into curvatons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Byrnes, Christian T.; Cortês, Marina; Liddle, Andrew R.

    2016-09-01

    We consider the possible decay of the inflaton into curvaton particles during reheating and analyze its effect on curvaton scenarios. Typical decay curvatons are initially relativistic then become nonrelativistic, changing the background history of the Universe. We show that this change to the background is the only way in which observational predictions of the scenario are modified. Moreover, once the required amplitude of perturbations is fixed by observation there are no signatures of such decays in other cosmological observables. The decay curvatons can prevent the Universe from becoming dominated by the curvaton condensate, making it impossible to match observations in parts of parameter space. This constrains the branching ratio of the inflaton to curvaton to be less than of order 0.1 typically. If the branching ratio is below about 10-4 it has negligible impact on the model parameter space and can be ignored.

  13. The hexagon hypothesis: Six disruptive scenarios.

    PubMed

    Burtles, Jim

    2015-01-01

    This paper aims to bring a simple but effective and comprehensive approach to the development, delivery and monitoring of business continuity solutions. To ensure that the arguments and principles apply across the board, the paper sticks to basic underlying concepts rather than sophisticated interpretations. First, the paper explores what exactly people are defending themselves against. Secondly, the paper looks at how defences should be set up. Disruptive events tend to unfold in phases, each of which invites a particular style of protection, ranging from risk management through to business continuity to insurance cover. Their impact upon any business operation will fall into one of six basic scenarios. The hexagon hypothesis suggests that everyone should be prepared to deal with each of these six disruptive scenarios and it provides them with a useful benchmark for business continuity.

  14. Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W.

    1995-12-31

    This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenario for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios ab applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained well be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example. The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities.

  15. Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W.

    1995-12-31

    This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenarios for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios by applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained will be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example. The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic (common sense) approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities.

  16. The hexagon hypothesis: Six disruptive scenarios.

    PubMed

    Burtles, Jim

    2015-01-01

    This paper aims to bring a simple but effective and comprehensive approach to the development, delivery and monitoring of business continuity solutions. To ensure that the arguments and principles apply across the board, the paper sticks to basic underlying concepts rather than sophisticated interpretations. First, the paper explores what exactly people are defending themselves against. Secondly, the paper looks at how defences should be set up. Disruptive events tend to unfold in phases, each of which invites a particular style of protection, ranging from risk management through to business continuity to insurance cover. Their impact upon any business operation will fall into one of six basic scenarios. The hexagon hypothesis suggests that everyone should be prepared to deal with each of these six disruptive scenarios and it provides them with a useful benchmark for business continuity. PMID:26420396

  17. Occupational health scenario of Indian informal sector.

    PubMed

    Nag, Anjali; Vyas, Heer; Nag, Pranab

    2016-08-01

    Workers in the Indian informal sector are engaged with different occupations. These occupations involve varied work related hazards. These occupational hazards are a consequent risk to health. The study aimed to determine occupational health scenario in the Indian Informal sector. One thousand eleven hundred twenty two workers from five different occupations namely weaving (handloom and power loom), construction, transportation, tobacco processing and fish processing were assessed by interviewer administered health questionnaire. Workers suffered from musculo-skeletal complaints, respiratory health hazards, eye problems and skin related complaints. There was a high prevalence of self-reported occupational health problems in the selected sectors. The study finds that workers have occupational exposures to multiple hazards. The absence of protective guards aggrevate their health condition. The study attempts to draws an immediate attention on the existing health scenario of the Indian Informal sector. PMID:26903262

  18. Sampling and counting genome rearrangement scenarios

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Background Even for moderate size inputs, there are a tremendous number of optimal rearrangement scenarios, regardless what the model is and which specific question is to be answered. Therefore giving one optimal solution might be misleading and cannot be used for statistical inferring. Statistically well funded methods are necessary to sample uniformly from the solution space and then a small number of samples are sufficient for statistical inferring. Contribution In this paper, we give a mini-review about the state-of-the-art of sampling and counting rearrangement scenarios, focusing on the reversal, DCJ and SCJ models. Above that, we also give a Gibbs sampler for sampling most parsimonious labeling of evolutionary trees under the SCJ model. The method has been implemented and tested on real life data. The software package together with example data can be downloaded from http://www.renyi.hu/~miklosi/SCJ-Gibbs/ PMID:26452124

  19. Effective scenario of loop quantum cosmology.

    PubMed

    Ding, You; Ma, Yongge; Yang, Jinsong

    2009-02-01

    Semiclassical states in isotropic loop quantum cosmology are employed to show that the improved dynamics has the correct classical limit. The effective Hamiltonian for the quantum cosmological model with a massless scalar field is thus obtained, which incorporates also the next to leading order quantum corrections. The possibility that the higher order correction terms may lead to significant departure from the leading order effective scenario is revealed. If the semiclassicality of the model is maintained in the large scale limit, there are great possibilities for a k=0 Friedmann expanding universe to undergo a collapse in the future due to the quantum gravity effect. Thus the quantum bounce and collapse may contribute a cyclic universe in the new scenario.

  20. Occupational health scenario of Indian informal sector.

    PubMed

    Nag, Anjali; Vyas, Heer; Nag, Pranab

    2016-08-01

    Workers in the Indian informal sector are engaged with different occupations. These occupations involve varied work related hazards. These occupational hazards are a consequent risk to health. The study aimed to determine occupational health scenario in the Indian Informal sector. One thousand eleven hundred twenty two workers from five different occupations namely weaving (handloom and power loom), construction, transportation, tobacco processing and fish processing were assessed by interviewer administered health questionnaire. Workers suffered from musculo-skeletal complaints, respiratory health hazards, eye problems and skin related complaints. There was a high prevalence of self-reported occupational health problems in the selected sectors. The study finds that workers have occupational exposures to multiple hazards. The absence of protective guards aggrevate their health condition. The study attempts to draws an immediate attention on the existing health scenario of the Indian Informal sector.

  1. A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: Scenario matrix architecture

    SciTech Connect

    Van Vuuren, Detlef; Kriegler, Elmar; O'Neill, Brian; Ebi, Kristie L.; Riahi, Keywan; Carter, Tim; Edmonds, James A.; Hallegatte, Stephane; Kram, Tom; Mathur, Ritu; Winkler, Harald

    2014-02-01

    In this paper, we present the scenario matrix architecture as part of the new scenario framework for climate change research. The matrix architecture focuses on a key question of current climate research, namely the identification of trade-offs and synergies (in terms of risks, costs and other consequences) of different adaptation and mitigation strategies. The framework has two main axes: 1) the level of forcing (as represented by the RCPs) and 2) different socio-economic reference pathways. The matrix can be used as a tool to guide new scenario development and analytical analysis. It can also be used as a heuristic tool for classifying new and existing scenarios for assessment. Key elements of the architecture, in particular the shared socio-economic reference pathways and the shared policy assumptions, are elaborated in other papers in this special issue.

  2. Ranking landscape development scenarios affecting natterjack toad (Bufo calamita) population dynamics in Central Poland.

    PubMed

    Franz, Kamila W; Romanowski, Jerzy; Johst, Karin; Grimm, Volker

    2013-01-01

    When data are limited it is difficult for conservation managers to assess alternative management scenarios and make decisions. The natterjack toad (Bufo calamita) is declining at the edges of its distribution range in Europe and little is known about its current distribution and abundance in Poland. Although different landscape management plans for central Poland exist, it is unclear to what extent they impact this species. Based on these plans, we investigated how four alternative landscape development scenarios would affect the total carrying capacity and population dynamics of the natterjack toad. To facilitate decision-making, we first ranked the scenarios according to their total carrying capacity. We used the software RAMAS GIS to determine the size and location of habitat patches in the landscape. The estimated carrying capacities were very similar for each scenario, and clear ranking was not possible. Only the reforestation scenario showed a marked loss in carrying capacity. We therefore simulated metapopulation dynamics with RAMAS taking into account dynamical processes such as reproduction and dispersal and ranked the scenarios according to the resulting species abundance. In this case, we could clearly rank the development scenarios. We identified road mortality of adults as a key process governing the dynamics and separating the different scenarios. The renaturalisation scenario clearly ranked highest due to its decreased road mortality. Taken together our results suggest that road infrastructure development might be much more important for natterjack toad conservation than changes in the amount of habitat in the semi-natural river valley. We gained these insights by considering both the resulting metapopulation structure and dynamics in the form of a PVA. We conclude that the consideration of dynamic processes in amphibian conservation management may be indispensable for ranking management scenarios.

  3. Ranking Landscape Development Scenarios Affecting Natterjack Toad (Bufo calamita) Population Dynamics in Central Poland

    PubMed Central

    Franz, Kamila W.; Romanowski, Jerzy; Johst, Karin; Grimm, Volker

    2013-01-01

    When data are limited it is difficult for conservation managers to assess alternative management scenarios and make decisions. The natterjack toad (Bufo calamita) is declining at the edges of its distribution range in Europe and little is known about its current distribution and abundance in Poland. Although different landscape management plans for central Poland exist, it is unclear to what extent they impact this species. Based on these plans, we investigated how four alternative landscape development scenarios would affect the total carrying capacity and population dynamics of the natterjack toad. To facilitate decision-making, we first ranked the scenarios according to their total carrying capacity. We used the software RAMAS GIS to determine the size and location of habitat patches in the landscape. The estimated carrying capacities were very similar for each scenario, and clear ranking was not possible. Only the reforestation scenario showed a marked loss in carrying capacity. We therefore simulated metapopulation dynamics with RAMAS taking into account dynamical processes such as reproduction and dispersal and ranked the scenarios according to the resulting species abundance. In this case, we could clearly rank the development scenarios. We identified road mortality of adults as a key process governing the dynamics and separating the different scenarios. The renaturalisation scenario clearly ranked highest due to its decreased road mortality. Taken together our results suggest that road infrastructure development might be much more important for natterjack toad conservation than changes in the amount of habitat in the semi-natural river valley. We gained these insights by considering both the resulting metapopulation structure and dynamics in the form of a PVA. We conclude that the consideration of dynamic processes in amphibian conservation management may be indispensable for ranking management scenarios. PMID:23734223

  4. Necrotizing Fasciitis: An Emergency Medicine Simulation Scenario

    PubMed Central

    Galust, Henrik; Oliverio, Matthew H; Giorgio, Daniel J; Espinal, Alexis M

    2016-01-01

    Necrotizing fasciitis (NF) is a rare and rapidly progressing life-threatening infectious process. By progressing through a simulation involving a patient with NF and participating in a post-scenario debriefing, learners will gain the necessary skills and knowledge to properly diagnose and manage patients with NF. Learners are taught to initiate appropriate and timely treatment and to advocate on behalf of their patient after inappropriate pushback from consultants to improve outcomes. PMID:27733963

  5. A tilted cold dark matter cosmological scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cen, Renyue; Gnedin, Nickolay Y.; Kofman, Lev A.; Ostriker, Jeremiah P.

    1992-01-01

    A new cosmological scenario based on CDM but with a power spectrum index of about 0.7-0.8 is suggested. This model is predicted by various inflationary models with no fine tuning. This tilted CDM model, if normalized to COBE, alleviates many problems of the standard CDM model related to both small-scale and large-scale power. A physical bias of galaxies over dark matter of about two is required to fit spatial observations.

  6. Probabilistic Climate Scenario Information for Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dairaku, K.; Ueno, G.; Takayabu, I.

    2014-12-01

    Climate information and services for Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (IAV) Assessments are of great concern. In order to develop probabilistic regional climate information that represents the uncertainty in climate scenario experiments in Japan, we compared the physics ensemble experiments using the 60km global atmospheric model of the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI-AGCM) with multi-model ensemble experiments with global atmospheric-ocean coupled models (CMIP3) of SRES A1b scenario experiments. The MRI-AGCM shows relatively good skills particularly in tropics for temperature and geopotential height. Variability in surface air temperature of physical ensemble experiments with MRI-AGCM was within the range of one standard deviation of the CMIP3 model in the Asia region. On the other hand, the variability of precipitation was relatively well represented compared with the variation of the CMIP3 models. Models which show the similar reproducibility in the present climate shows different future climate change. We couldn't find clear relationships between present climate and future climate change in temperature and precipitation. We develop a new method to produce probabilistic information of climate change scenarios by weighting model ensemble experiments based on a regression model (Krishnamurti et al., Science, 1999). The method can be easily applicable to other regions and other physical quantities, and also to downscale to finer-scale dependent on availability of observation dataset. The prototype of probabilistic information in Japan represents the quantified structural uncertainties of multi-model ensemble experiments of climate change scenarios. Acknowledgments: This study was supported by the SOUSEI Program, funded by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Government of Japan.

  7. Motivating an intergenerational workforce: scenarios for success.

    PubMed

    Wieck, K Lynn

    2007-01-01

    Although much has been written about the challenge of having four generations in the workplace simultaneously, problems of conflict, misunderstanding, and divisiveness continue. This article provides a snapshot of each generation as context. A series of scenarios based on Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs are then presented with insights into how each generation might approach the situation, along with hints for successfully managing toward positive outcomes. The expected outcome is a technique for each generation to look at workplace situations from all perspectives.

  8. Electroweak Gauge-Higgs Unification Scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Hosotani, Yutaka

    2008-11-23

    In the gauge-Higgs unification scenario 4D Higgs fields are unified with gauge fields in higher dimensions. The electroweak model is constructed in the Randall-Sundrum warped space. The electroweak symmetry is dynamically broken by the Hosotani mechanism due to the top quark contribution. The Higgs mass is predicted to be around 50 GeV with the vanishing ZZH and WWH couplings so that the LEP2 bound for the Higgs mass is evaded.

  9. Glacial CO2 Cycles: A Composite Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Broecker, W. S.

    2015-12-01

    There are three main contributors to the glacial drawdown of atmospheric CO2 content: starvation of the supply of carbon to the ocean-atmosphere reservoir, excess CO2 storage in the deep sea, and surface-ocean cooling. In this talk, I explore a scenario in which all three play significant roles. Key to this scenario is the assumption that deep ocean storage is related to the extent of nutrient stratification of the deep Atlantic. The stronger this stratification, the larger the storage of respiration CO2. Further, it is my contention that the link between Milankovitch insolation cycles and climate is reorganizations of the ocean's thermohaline circulation leading to changes in the deep ocean's CO2 storage. If this is the case, the deep Atlantic d13C record kept in benthic foraminifera shells tells us that deep ocean CO2 storage follows Northern Hemisphere summer insolation cycles and thus lacks the downward ramp so prominent in the records of sea level, benthic 18O and CO2. Rather, the ramp is created by the damping of planetary CO2 emissions during glacial time intervals. As it is premature to present a specific scenario, I provide an example as to how these three contributors might be combined. As their magnitudes and shapes remain largely unconstrained, the intent of this exercise is to provoke creative thinking.

  10. CP violation in heavy MSSM Higgs scenarios

    DOE PAGES

    Carena, M.; Ellis, J.; Lee, J. S.; Pilaftsis, A.; Wagner, C. E. M.

    2016-02-18

    We introduce and explore new heavy Higgs scenarios in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM) with explicit CP violation, which have important phenomenological implications that may be testable at the LHC. For soft supersymmetry-breaking scales MS above a few TeV and a charged Higgs boson mass MH+ above a few hundred GeV, new physics effects including those from explicit CP violation decouple from the light Higgs boson sector. However, such effects can significantly alter the phenomenology of the heavy Higgs bosons while still being consistent with constraints from low-energy observables, for instance electric dipole moments. To consider scenarios with amore » charged Higgs boson much heavier than the Standard Model (SM) particles but much lighter than the supersymmetric particles, we revisit previous calculations of the MSSM Higgs sector. We compute the Higgs boson masses in the presence of CP violating phases, implementing improved matching and renormalization-group (RG) effects, as well as two-loop RG effects from the effective two-Higgs Doublet Model (2HDM) scale MH± to the scale MS. Here, we illustrate the possibility of non-decoupling CP-violating effects in the heavy Higgs sector using new benchmark scenarios named.« less

  11. The use of scenario analysis in local public health departments: alternative futures for strategic planning.

    PubMed Central

    Venable, J M; Ma, Q L; Ginter, P M; Duncan, W J

    1993-01-01

    Scenario analysis is a strategic planning technique used to describe and evaluate an organization's external environment. A methodology for conducting scenario analysis using the Jefferson County Department of Health and the national, State, and county issues confronting it is outlined. Key health care and organizational issues were identified using published sources, focus groups, questionnaires, and personal interviews. The most important of these issues were selected by asking health department managers to evaluate the issues according to their probability of occurrence and likely impact on the health department. The high-probability, high-impact issues formed the basis for developing scenario logics that constitute the story line holding the scenario together. The results were a set of plausible scenarios that aided in strategic planning, encouraged strategic thinking among managers, eliminated or reduced surprise about environmental changes, and improved managerial discussion and communication. PMID:8265754

  12. Software Requirements Specification: Multi-scale Epidemiological and Economic Simulation and Analysis (MESA) Scenario Bank

    SciTech Connect

    Dahlgren, T L; Hazlett, S G; Slone, D M; Smith, S G

    2006-11-08

    This document builds on the discussion notes from September 21, 2006. It provides a summary of the ideas relating to the scenario bank tables and their associated requirements. Two conceptual groupings were identified for the contents requirements of the scenario bank. The first, called ProjectTemplate, shall consist of Scenarios, and Miscellaneous Files> groups. The second, ProjectArchive, shall consist of groups of Scenarios, Results, and Miscellaneous Files>. The figure below illustrates the multiplicity of the associations between the different tables, with color coding used to distinguish between current MESA (brown) and USDA (light green) requirements. Scenario bank tables are shown in black with their general contents specified within the box. The metadata associated with each table is expected to include database key information as well as relevant timestamps. Each File is expected to be a file with an arbitrary format.

  13. Deforestation scenarios for the Bolivian lowlands.

    PubMed

    Tejada, Graciela; Dalla-Nora, Eloi; Cordoba, Diana; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Ovando, Alex; Assis, Talita; Aguiar, Ana Paula

    2016-01-01

    Tropical forests in South America play a key role in the provision of ecosystem services such as carbon sinks, biodiversity conservation, and global climate regulation. In previous decades, Bolivian forests have mainly been deforested by the expansion of agricultural frontier development, driven by the growing demands for beef and other productions. In the mid-2000s the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party rose to power in Bolivia with the promise of promoting an alternative development model that would respect the environment. The party passed the world's first laws granting rights to the environment, which they termed Mother Earth (Law No. 300 of 2012), and proposed an innovative framework that was expected to develop radical new conservation policies. The MAS conservationist discourse, policies, and productive practices, however, have since been in permanent tension. The government continues to guarantee food production through neo-extractivist methods by promoting the notion to expand agriculture from 3 to 13 million ha, risking the tropical forests and their ecosystem services. These actions raise major environmental and social concerns, as the potential impacts of such interventions are still unknown. The objective of this study is to explore an innovative land use modeling approach to simulate how the growing demand for land could affect future deforestation trends in Bolivia. We use the LuccME framework to create a spatially-explicit land cover change model and run it under three different deforestation scenarios, spanning from the present-2050. In the Sustainability scenario, deforestation reaches 17,703,786 ha, notably in previously deforested or degraded areas, while leaving forest extensions intact. In the Middle of the road scenario, deforestation and degradation move toward new or paved roads spreading across 25,698,327 ha in 2050, while intact forests are located in Protected Areas (PAs). In the Fragmentation scenario, deforestation expands to almost

  14. Deforestation scenarios for the Bolivian lowlands.

    PubMed

    Tejada, Graciela; Dalla-Nora, Eloi; Cordoba, Diana; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Ovando, Alex; Assis, Talita; Aguiar, Ana Paula

    2016-01-01

    Tropical forests in South America play a key role in the provision of ecosystem services such as carbon sinks, biodiversity conservation, and global climate regulation. In previous decades, Bolivian forests have mainly been deforested by the expansion of agricultural frontier development, driven by the growing demands for beef and other productions. In the mid-2000s the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party rose to power in Bolivia with the promise of promoting an alternative development model that would respect the environment. The party passed the world's first laws granting rights to the environment, which they termed Mother Earth (Law No. 300 of 2012), and proposed an innovative framework that was expected to develop radical new conservation policies. The MAS conservationist discourse, policies, and productive practices, however, have since been in permanent tension. The government continues to guarantee food production through neo-extractivist methods by promoting the notion to expand agriculture from 3 to 13 million ha, risking the tropical forests and their ecosystem services. These actions raise major environmental and social concerns, as the potential impacts of such interventions are still unknown. The objective of this study is to explore an innovative land use modeling approach to simulate how the growing demand for land could affect future deforestation trends in Bolivia. We use the LuccME framework to create a spatially-explicit land cover change model and run it under three different deforestation scenarios, spanning from the present-2050. In the Sustainability scenario, deforestation reaches 17,703,786 ha, notably in previously deforested or degraded areas, while leaving forest extensions intact. In the Middle of the road scenario, deforestation and degradation move toward new or paved roads spreading across 25,698,327 ha in 2050, while intact forests are located in Protected Areas (PAs). In the Fragmentation scenario, deforestation expands to almost

  15. On the hadronic cascade scenario for extreme BL Lacs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tavecchio, Fabrizio

    2014-03-01

    The peculiar high-energy emission spectrum of the so-called extreme BL Lacs (EHBL) challenges the standard emission models of blazars. Among the possible solutions, the so-called hadronic cascade scenario assumes that the observed high-energy radiation is produced in the intergalactic space through photo-hadronic reactions by ultra-high energy cosmic rays (UHECR) with energies up to 1019-20 eV beamed by the blazar jet. Under the assumption - implicit in this model - that the intrinsic high-energy synchrotron self-Compton emission of the blazar does not substantially contribute to the observed γ-ray spectrum, we derive constraints to the basic physical quantities of the jet and we compare them with the requirements of the hadronic cascade scenario. We found that, for a plausible range of relativistic jet Doppler factors (δ = 10-50), the maximum achievable energy of the accelerated protons can exceed 2 × 1019 eV with jet powers of the order of ≈1044 erg s-1, parameters compatible with the requests of the hadronic scenario even if EHBL are embedded in magnetic fields of cosmic filaments. We also discuss the consequences of our results for the possibility that local EHBL contribute to the observed UHECR.

  16. Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework.

    PubMed

    Merriam, Eric R; Petty, J Todd; Strager, Michael P

    2016-01-01

    There is a critical need for tools and methodologies capable of managing aquatic systems within heavily impacted watersheds. Current efforts often fall short as a result of an inability to quantify and predict complex cumulative effects of current and future land use scenarios at relevant spatial scales. The goal of this manuscript is to provide methods for conducting a targeted watershed assessment that enables resource managers to produce landscape-based cumulative effects models for use within a scenario analysis management framework. Sites are first selected for inclusion within the watershed assessment by identifying sites that fall along independent gradients and combinations of known stressors. Field and laboratory techniques are then used to obtain data on the physical, chemical, and biological effects of multiple land use activities. Multiple linear regression analysis is then used to produce landscape-based cumulative effects models for predicting aquatic conditions. Lastly, methods for incorporating cumulative effects models within a scenario analysis framework for guiding management and regulatory decisions (e.g., permitting and mitigation) within actively developing watersheds are discussed and demonstrated for 2 sub-watersheds within the mountaintop mining region of central Appalachia. The watershed assessment and management approach provided herein enables resource managers to facilitate economic and development activity while protecting aquatic resources and producing opportunity for net ecological benefits through targeted remediation.

  17. Review of accident analysis calculations, 232-Z seismic scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Ballinger, M.Y.

    1993-05-01

    The 232-Z Building houses what was previously the incinerator facility, which is no longer in service. It is constructed out of concrete blocks and is approximately 37 ft wide by 57 ft long. The building has a single story over the process areas and two stories over the service areas at the north end of the building. The respective roofs are 15 ft and 19 ft above grade and consist of concrete over a metal decking, with insulation and a built-up asphalt gravel covering. This facility is assumed to collapse in the seismic event evaluated in the safety analyses, resulting in the release of a portion of the residual plutonium inventory remaining in the building. The seismic scenario for 232-Z assumes that the block concrete walls collapse, allowing the roof to fall, crushing the contaminated duct and gloveboxes within. This paper is a review of the scenario and methods used to calculate the source term from the seismic event as presented in the Plutonium Finishing Plant Final Safety Analysis Report (WHC 1991) also referred to as the PFP FSAR. Alternate methods of estimating the source term are presented. The calculation of source terms based on the mechanisms of release expected in worst-case scenario is recommended.

  18. Biomethane production system: Energetic analysis of various scenarios.

    PubMed

    Wu, Bin; Zhang, Xiangping; Bao, Di; Xu, Yajing; Zhang, Suojiang; Deng, Liyuan

    2016-04-01

    The energy consumption models of biomethane production system were established, which are more rigorous and universal than the empirical data reported by previous biomethane system energetic assessment work. The energy efficiencies of different scenarios considering factors such as two digestion modes, two heating modes of digester, with or without heat exchange between slurry and feedstock, and four crude biogas upgrading technologies were evaluated. Results showed the scenario employing thermophilic digestion and high pressure water scrubbing technology, with heat exchange between feedstock and slurry, and heat demand of digester supplied by the energy source outside the system has the highest energy efficiency (46.5%) and lowest energy consumption (13.46 MJth/Nm(3) CH4), while scenario employing mesophilic digestion and pressure swing adsorption technology, without heat exchange and heat demand of digester supplied by combusting the biogas produced inside the system has the lowest energy efficiency (15.8%) and highest energy consumption (34.90 MJth/Nm(3) CH4).

  19. Patient HC with developmental amnesia can construct future scenarios.

    PubMed

    Hurley, Niamh C; Maguire, Eleanor A; Vargha-Khadem, Faraneh

    2011-11-01

    Deficits in recalling the past and imagining fictitious and future scenarios have been documented in patients with hippocampal damage and amnesia that was acquired in adulthood. By contrast patients with very early hippocampal damage and developmental amnesia are not impaired relative to control participants when imagining fictitious/future experiences. Recently, however, a patient (HC) with developmental amnesia, resulting from bilateral hippocampal atrophy, was reported to be impaired, thus raising a question about the true nature of event construction in the context of developmental amnesia. Here, we assessed HC on a test of imagination which explored her ability to construct fictitious events or personal plausible future events. Her scenario descriptions were analysed in detail along a range of parameters, using two different scoring methods. HC's performance was comparable to matched control participants on all measures relating to the imagination of fictitious and future scenarios. We then considered why she was reported as impaired in the previous study. We conclude that various features of the previous testing methodology may have contributed to the underestimation of HC's ability in that instance. Patients like HC with developmental amnesia may be successful at future-thinking tasks because their performance is not based on true visualisation or scene construction supported by the hippocampus, but rather on preserved world knowledge and semantic representations.

  20. Mortality estimation based on Business as Usual Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pozzer, Andrea; Lelieveld, Jos; Barlas, Ceren

    2013-04-01

    Air pollution by fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) has increased strongly with industrialization and urbanization. Epidemiological studies have shown that these pollutants increase lung cancer, cardiopulmonary and respiratory mortality. The atmospheric chemistry general circulation model EMAC has been used to estimate the concentration of such pollutants in recent and future years (2005, 2010, 2025 and 2050), based on a Business as Usual scenario. The emission scenario assumes that population and economic growth largely determine energy consumption and consequent pollution sources ("business as usual"). Based on the modeled pollutants concentrations and the UN estimates of population growth in the future, we assessed the premature mortality and the years of human life lost (YLL) caused by anthropogenic PM2.5 and O3 for epidemiological regions defined by the World Health Organization. The premature mortality for people of 30 years and older were estimated using a health impact function using parameters derived from epidemiological studies. Our results suggest that with a Business as Usual scenario, the ratio between mortality and population would increase of ~ 50% by 2050. This ratio, together with the increase of world population, would lead by the year 2050 to 8.9 millions premature deaths, equivalent to 79 millions of YYL.

  1. Patient HC with developmental amnesia can construct future scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Hurley, Niamh C.; Maguire, Eleanor A.; Vargha-Khadem, Faraneh

    2011-01-01

    Deficits in recalling the past and imagining fictitious and future scenarios have been documented in patients with hippocampal damage and amnesia that was acquired in adulthood. By contrast patients with very early hippocampal damage and developmental amnesia are not impaired relative to control participants when imagining fictitious/future experiences. Recently, however, a patient (HC) with developmental amnesia, resulting from bilateral hippocampal atrophy, was reported to be impaired, thus raising a question about the true nature of event construction in the context of developmental amnesia. Here, we assessed HC on a test of imagination which explored her ability to construct fictitious events or personal plausible future events. Her scenario descriptions were analysed in detail along a range of parameters, using two different scoring methods. HC's performance was comparable to matched control participants on all measures relating to the imagination of fictitious and future scenarios. We then considered why she was reported as impaired in the previous study. We conclude that various features of the previous testing methodology may have contributed to the underestimation of HC's ability in that instance. Patients like HC with developmental amnesia may be successful at future-thinking tasks because their performance is not based on true visualisation or scene construction supported by the hippocampus, but rather on preserved world knowledge and semantic representations. PMID:21964201

  2. Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework.

    PubMed

    Merriam, Eric R; Petty, J Todd; Strager, Michael P

    2016-01-01

    There is a critical need for tools and methodologies capable of managing aquatic systems within heavily impacted watersheds. Current efforts often fall short as a result of an inability to quantify and predict complex cumulative effects of current and future land use scenarios at relevant spatial scales. The goal of this manuscript is to provide methods for conducting a targeted watershed assessment that enables resource managers to produce landscape-based cumulative effects models for use within a scenario analysis management framework. Sites are first selected for inclusion within the watershed assessment by identifying sites that fall along independent gradients and combinations of known stressors. Field and laboratory techniques are then used to obtain data on the physical, chemical, and biological effects of multiple land use activities. Multiple linear regression analysis is then used to produce landscape-based cumulative effects models for predicting aquatic conditions. Lastly, methods for incorporating cumulative effects models within a scenario analysis framework for guiding management and regulatory decisions (e.g., permitting and mitigation) within actively developing watersheds are discussed and demonstrated for 2 sub-watersheds within the mountaintop mining region of central Appalachia. The watershed assessment and management approach provided herein enables resource managers to facilitate economic and development activity while protecting aquatic resources and producing opportunity for net ecological benefits through targeted remediation. PMID:27501287

  3. Biomethane production system: Energetic analysis of various scenarios.

    PubMed

    Wu, Bin; Zhang, Xiangping; Bao, Di; Xu, Yajing; Zhang, Suojiang; Deng, Liyuan

    2016-04-01

    The energy consumption models of biomethane production system were established, which are more rigorous and universal than the empirical data reported by previous biomethane system energetic assessment work. The energy efficiencies of different scenarios considering factors such as two digestion modes, two heating modes of digester, with or without heat exchange between slurry and feedstock, and four crude biogas upgrading technologies were evaluated. Results showed the scenario employing thermophilic digestion and high pressure water scrubbing technology, with heat exchange between feedstock and slurry, and heat demand of digester supplied by the energy source outside the system has the highest energy efficiency (46.5%) and lowest energy consumption (13.46 MJth/Nm(3) CH4), while scenario employing mesophilic digestion and pressure swing adsorption technology, without heat exchange and heat demand of digester supplied by combusting the biogas produced inside the system has the lowest energy efficiency (15.8%) and highest energy consumption (34.90 MJth/Nm(3) CH4). PMID:26855289

  4. Scenario projections for future market potentials of biobased bulk chemicals.

    PubMed

    Dornburg, Veronika; Hermann, Barbara G; Patel, Martin K

    2008-04-01

    Three scenario projections for future market potentials of biobased bulk chemicals produced by means of white biotechnology are developed for Europe (EU-25) until the year 2050, and potential nonrenewable energy savings, greenhouse gas emission reduction, and land use consequences are analyzed. These scenarios assume benign, moderate, and disadvantageous conditions for biobased chemicals. The scenario analysis yields a broad range of values for the possible market development of white biotechnology chemicals, that is, resulting in a share of white biotechnology chemicals relative to all organic chemicals of about 7 (or 5 million tonnes), 17.5 (or 26 million tonnes), or 38% (or 113 million tonnes) in 2050. We conclude that under favorable conditions, white biotechnology enables substantial savings of nonrenewable energy use (NREU) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared to the energy use of the future production of all organic chemicals from fossil resources. Savings of NREU reach up to 17% for starch crops and up to 31% for lignocellulosic feedstock by 2050, and saving percentages for GHG emissions are in a similar range. Parallel to these environmental benefits, economic advantages of up to 75 billion Euro production cost savings arise. PMID:18504951

  5. Climate impacts of the ECLIPSE future emissions mitigation scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baker, Laura; Collins, Bill; Olivie, Dirk; Cherian, Ribu; Quaas, Johannes; Myhre, Gunnar; Hodnebrog, Oivind; Skeie, Ragnhild

    2016-04-01

    We investigate the possible near-term climate benefits from mitigating aerosols, ozone and methane. The ECLIPSE (Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants) project developed a realistic emissions inventory based on current legislation for 2005-2050 (CLE), and a corresponding mitigation scenario designed to be beneficial for both air quality and short-term climate impact (MIT). We determine the climate impacts of the MIT scenario, focussing on the period 2040-2050. Four climate models with interactive chemistry and aerosols (HadGEM, NorESM, CESM-CAM4 and ECHAM-HAM) are used to provide multi-model ensembles of both atmosphere-only and coupled atmosphere-ocean simulations, to separate the effective radiative forcing (ERF) and the climate response. The ERFs are derived from the atmosphere-only simulations. In all models the MIT scenario leads to a negative global ERF which is driven mainly by methane emissions reductions. There is variability between models in the relative importance of methane and aerosol emissions reductions, and in the sign of ERF response to aerosol emissions reductions. The climate response to MIT is derived from the coupled simulations. In all models, MIT results in a decrease in the global mean temperature compared to CLE, with a model mean decrease of 0.22°C. The temperature decrease is seen most strongly in the Northern Hemisphere and is particularly strong in the Arctic. The ensembles of coupled-ocean simulations have therefore enabled us to identify a robust cooling signal from the air quality mitigation scenarios, which can be attributed to the different species using the ERFs.

  6. Change Ahead: Transient Scenarios for Long-term Water Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Beersma, Jules; Schellekens, Jaap

    2013-04-01

    While the use of an ensemble of transient scenarios is common in climate change studies, they are rarely used in water management studies. Present planning studies on long-term water management often use a few plausible futures for one or two projection years, ignoring the dynamic aspect of adaptation through the interaction between the water system and society. Over the course of time society experiences, learns and adapts to changes and events, making policy responses part of a plausible future, and thus the success of a water management strategy. Exploring transient scenarios and policy options over time can support decision making on water management strategies in an uncertain and changing environment. We have developed and applied such a method, called exploring adaptation pathways (Haasnoot et al., 2012; Haasnoot et al., 2011). This method uses multiple realisations of transient scenarios to assess the efficacy of policy actions over time. In case specified objectives are not achieved anymore, an adaptation tipping point (Kwadijk et al., 2010) is reached. After reaching a tipping point, additional actions are needed to reach the objectives. As a result, a pathway emerges. In this presentation we describe the development of transient scenarios for long term water management, and how these scenarios can be used for long term water management under uncertainty. We illustrate this with thought experiments, and results from computational modeling experiment for exploring adaptation pathways in the lower Rhine delta. The results and the thought experiments show, among others, that climate variability is at least just as important as climate change for taking decisions in water management. References Haasnoot, M., Middelkoop, H., Offermans, A., Beek, E., Deursen, W.A.v. (2012) Exploring pathways for sustainable water management in river deltas in a changing environment. Climatic Change 115, 795-819. Haasnoot, M., Middelkoop, H., van Beek, E., van Deursen, W

  7. Emissions from international shipping: 2. Impact of future technologies on scenarios until 2050

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eyring, V.; KöHler, H. W.; Lauer, A.; Lemper, B.

    2005-09-01

    In this study the today's fleet-average emission factors of the most important ship exhausts are used to calculate emission scenarios for the future. To develop plausible future technology scenarios, first upcoming regulations and compliance with future regulations through technological improvements are discussed. We present geographically resolved emission inventory scenarios until 2050, based on a mid-term prognosis for 2020 and a long-term prognosis for 2050. The scenarios are based on some very strict assumptions on future ship traffic demands and technological improvements. The four future ship traffic demand scenarios are mainly determined by the economic growth, which follows the IPCC SRES storylines. The resulting fuel consumption is projected through extrapolations of historical trends in economic growth, total seaborne trade and number of ships, as well as the average installed power per ship. For the future technology scenarios we assume a diesel-only fleet in 2020 resulting in fuel consumption between 382 and 409 million metric tons (Mt). For 2050 one technology scenario assumes that 25% of the fuel consumed by a diesel-only fleet can be saved by applying future alternative propulsion plants, resulting in a fuel consumption that varies between 402 and 543 Mt. The other scenario is a business-as-usual scenario for a diesel-only fleet even in 2050 and gives an estimate between 536 and 725 Mt. Dependent on how rapid technology improvements for diesel engines are introduced, possible technology reduction factors are applied to the today's fleet-average emission factors of all important species to estimate future ship emissions. Combining the four traffic demand scenarios with the four technology scenarios, our results suggest emissions between 8.8 and 25.0 Tg (NO2) in 2020, and between 3.1 to 38.8 Tg (NO2) in 2050. The development of forecast scenarios for CO2, NOx, SOx, CO, hydrocarbons, and particulate matter is driven by the requirements for global model

  8. Climate Change and its Impacts on Water Resources and Management of Tarbela Reservoir under IPCC Climate Change Scenarios in Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khan, Firdos; Pilz, Jürgen

    2014-05-01

    Water resources play a vital role in agriculture, energy, industry, households and ecological balance. The main source of water to rivers is the Himalaya-Karakorum-Hindukush (HKH) glaciers and rainfall in Upper Indus Basin (UIB). There is high uncertainty in the availability of water in the rivers due to the variability of the monsoon, Western Disturbances, prolonged droughts and melting of glaciers in the HKH region. Therefore, proper management of water resources is undeniably important. Due to the growing population, urbanization and increased industrialization, the situation is likely to get worse. For the assessment of possible climate change, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation were investigated and evidence was found in favor of climate change in the region. Due to large differences between historical meteorological data and Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulated data, different statistical techniques were used for bias correction in temperature and precipitation. The hydrological model was calibrated for the period of 1995-2004 and validated for the period of 1990-1994 with almost 90 % efficiencies. After the application of bias correction techniques output of RCM, Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies (PRECIS) were used as input data to the hydrological model to produce inflow projections at Tarbela reservoir on Indus River. For climate change assessment, the results show that the above mentioned variables have greater increasing trend under A2 scenario compared to B2 scenario. The projections of inflow to Tarbela reservoir show that overall 59.42 % and 34.27 % inflow increasing to Tarbela Reservoir during 2040-2069 under A2 and B2 scenarios will occur, respectively. Highest inflow and comparatively more shortage of water is noted in the 2020s under A2 scenario. Finally, the impacts of changing climate are investigated on the operation of the Tarbela reservoir. The results show that there will be shortage of water in some

  9. Climate change scenarios for the North American monsoon using CMIP3 and CMIP5 models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cavazos, T.; Torres, A.; Arriaga-Ramirez, S.

    2012-12-01

    Regional climate change scenarios the North American monsoon (NAM) were produced as part of the Baja California State Climate Change Action Program (PEACC-BC). Bias-corrected and spatially downscaled scenarios (BCSD) from six general circulation models (GCMs) with 12 realizations were analyzed for two IPCC-SRES emissions scenarios: B1 and A2 during the 21st century. A validation of the original GCM realizations and the BCSD scenarios with observed data during 1961-1990 shows that the ensemble GCM produces a delay of the summer monsoon and too much precipitation during autumn and winter, while the ensemble BCSD considerably improves the annual cycles and spatial distributions of precipitation and temperature in the region. An ensemble of 6 CMIP5 models shows an improvement of the summer monsoon rains during the observational period, but still produces a wet and cool bias during autumn and winter. BCSD scenarios of temperature and precipitation during the 21st century were evaluated based on the multi-model median change relative to 1961-1990. The A2 scenarios show the largest reductions of precipitation in the last twenty years of the 21st century; the precipitation in the NAM region could be weakened by 20%, during winter, spring, and summer. After 2050, a significant reduction of precipitation is expected in northwest Mexico and the southwest United States south of 35oN, and temperature changes larger than 2oC warming. Changes in precipitation, temperature and circulation of the monsoon were also evaluated using the new RCP85 scenarios of a multi-model ensemble of 6 CMIP5 models for the 2075-2099 relative to 1979-2005. The temperature changes are similar in both CMIP3 and CMIP5 scenarios. However, CMIP5 precipitation scenarios show small annual precipitation changes and large uncertainties, especially during the summer. A significant reduction of rainfall is projected for spring, as in the CMIP3; in contrast, the CMIP5 ensemble shows increases of precipitation

  10. Behavioral and neuroimaging responses induced by mental imagery of threatening scenarios.

    PubMed

    Shuhama, Rosana; Rondinoni, Carlo; de Araujo, Draulio Barros; de Freitas Caetano, Gustavo; Dos Santos, Antonio Carlos; Graeff, Frederico Guilherme; Del-Ben, Cristina Marta

    2016-10-15

    Functional neuroimaging studies have shown that actual situations of uncertain or distant threats increase the activity of forebrain regions, whereas proximal threats increase the activity of the dorsal midbrain. This experiment aimed at testing the hypothesis that brain activity elicited by imagined scenarios of threats with two different magnitudes, potential and imminent, resembles that found in response to actual threats. First, we measured subjective responses to imagined scenarios of potential and imminent threats compared with neutral and pleasant scenarios. The same scenarios were used as a paradigm in a functional magnetic resonance imaging experiment. Behavioral results show that the scenarios draw a gradient of hedonic valence and arousal dimensions. Both potential and imminent threat scenarios increased subjective anxiety; the imminent threat scenario also increased feelings of discomfort and bodily symptoms. The functional magnetic resonance imaging results revealed modulations of BOLD signal in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex by potential threat and in the periaqueductal gray matter by imminent threat. These results agree with previously reported evidence using actual threat situations, indicating that mental imagery is a reliable method for studying the functional neuroanatomy of relevant behavioral processes. PMID:27452804

  11. Modelling regional climate change and urban planning scenarios and their impacts on the urban environment in two cities with WRF-ACASA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Falk, M.; Pyles, R. D.; Marras, S.; Spano, D.; Paw U, K. T.

    2011-12-01

    The number of urban metabolism studies has increased in recent years, due to the important impact that energy, water and carbon exchange over urban areas have on climate change. Urban modeling is therefore crucial in the future design and management of cities. This study presents the ACASA model coupled to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) mesoscale model to simulate urban fluxes at a horizontal resolution of 200 meters for urban areas of roughly 100 km^2. As part of the European Project "BRIDGE", these regional simulations were used in combination with remotely sensed data to provide constraints on the land surface types and the exchange of carbon and energy fluxes from urban centers. Surface-atmosphere exchanges of mass and energy were simulated using the Advanced Canopy Atmosphere Soil Algorithm (ACASA). ACASA is a multi-layer high-order closure model, recently modified to work over natural, agricultural as well as urban environments. In particular, improvements were made to account for the anthropogenic contribution to heat and carbon production. For two cities four climate change and four urban planning scenarios were simulated: The climate change scenarios include a base scenario (Sc0: 2008 Commit in IPCC), a medium emission scenario (Sc1: IPCC A2), a worst case emission scenario (Sce2: IPCC A1F1) and finally a best case emission scenario (Sce3: IPCC B1). The urban planning scenarios include different development scenarios such as smart growth. The two cities are a high latitude city, Helsinki (Finland) and an historic city, Florence (Italy). Helsinki is characterized by recent, rapid urbanization that requires a substantial amount of energy for heating, while Florence is representative of cities in lower latitudes, with substantial cultural heritage and a comparatively constant architectural footprint over time. In general, simulated fluxes matched the point observations well and showed consistent improvement in the energy partitioning over

  12. A Global Water Resources Assessment under RCP, SSP, and CMIP5 Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hanasaki, N.; Fujimori, S.

    2012-12-01

    A number of reports have been published on climate change impact assessment on global water resources, but earlier studies need to be updated and refined due to three reasons. First, most of earlier studies were based on an old set of IPCC scenarios consists of SRES (green house gas (GHG) emission and socio-economic scenarios) and CMIP3 (climate scenarios consistent with SRES). A new set of IPCC scenarios is being released (Moss et al., 2008) that consists of RCP (GHG emission scenario), SSP (socio-economic scenario), and CMIP5 (climate scenarios consistent with RCP). In order to take the latest achievements in climate modeling, impact assessments should be based on the new scenario. Second, most of earlier studies focused more on the change in water availability (e.g. runoff and discharge), less for change in water use (agricultural, industrial, domestic water use). Because SSP consists of five scenarios delineating substantially different world, water use scenarios should be developed with care reflecting the difference among them. Third, most of earlier studies assessed water availability and use at annual time resolution. This may overlook seasonal and inter-annual shortage of water due to variability in water availability and use. Here we present a novel assessment on global water resources using a global water resources model called H08 (Hanasaki et al., 2008a,b; 2010). H08 simulates natural water cycle and major human activities, such as water withdrawals and reservoir operation. It estimates water availability and use at daily time interval, which enables to take sub-annual water shortage into account. We first developed water use scenarios for agricultural (irrigation), industrial, and domestic water withdrawal that are consistent with five SSP scenarios. Next, we set up a matrix of scenario combination of RCP, SSP, and CMIP5 for insightful global water resources assessment. Finally we conducted H08 simulation using these scenarios and assessed water

  13. Prevalence and Antifungal Susceptibility of 442 Candida Isolates from Blood and Other Normally Sterile Sites: Results of a 2-Year (1996 to 1998) Multicenter Surveillance Study in Quebec, Canada

    PubMed Central

    St-Germain, G.; Laverdière, M.; Pelletier, R.; Bourgault, A.-M.; Libman, M.; Lemieux, C.; Noël, G.

    2001-01-01

    During a 2-year surveillance program (1996 to 1998) in Quebec, Canada, 442 strains of Candida species were isolated from 415 patients in 51 hospitals. The distribution of species was as follows: Candida albicans, 54%; C. glabrata, 15%; C. parapsilosis, 12%; C. tropicalis, 9%; C. lusitaniae, 3%; C. krusei, 3%; and Candida spp., 3%. These data, compared to those of a 1985 survey, indicate variations in species distribution, with the proportions of C. glabrata and C. parapsilosis increasing by 9 and 4%, respectively, and those of C. albicans and C. tropicalis decreasing by 10 and 7%, respectively. However, these differences are statistically significant for C. glabrata and C. tropicalis only. MICs of amphotericin B were ≥4 μg/ml for 3% of isolates, all of which were non-C. albicans species. Three percent of C. albicans isolates were resistant to flucytosine (≥32 μg/ml). Resistance to itraconazole (≥1 μg/ml) and fluconazole (≥64 μg/ml) was observed, respectively, in 1 and 1% of C. albicans, 14 and 9% of C. glabrata, 5 and 0% of C. tropicalis, and 0% of C. parapsilosis and C. lusitaniae isolates. Clinical data were obtained for 343 patients. The overall crude mortality rate was 38%, reflecting the multiple serious underlying illnesses found in these patients. Bloodstream infections were documented for 249 patients (73%). Overall, systemic triazoles had been administered to 10% of patients before the onset of candidiasis. The frequency of isolation of non-C. albicans species was significantly higher in this group of patients. Overall, only two C. albicans isolates were found to be resistant to fluconazole. These were obtained from an AIDS patient and a leukemia patient, both of whom had a history of previous exposure to fluconazole. At present, it appears that resistance to fluconazole in Quebec is rare and is restricted to patients with prior prolonged azole treatment. PMID:11230409

  14. Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Yu, Wenjun; Ge, Yingchun

    2016-02-01

    This study quantified the hydrological responses to land-use change scenarios in the upper and middle Heihe River basin (HRB), northwest China, under constant and changed climatic conditions by combining a land-use/cover change model (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects, Dyna-CLUE) and a hydrological model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT). Five land-use change scenarios, i.e., historical trend (HT), ecological protection (EP), strict ecological protection (SEP), economic development (ED), and rapid economic development (RED) scenarios, were established. Under constant climatic condition, hydrological variations are only induced by land-use changes in different scenarios. The changes in mean streamflow at the outlets of the upper and the middle HRB are not pronounced, although the different scenarios produce different outcomes. However, more pronounced changes are observed on a subbasin level. The frequency of extreme flood is projected to decrease under the SEP scenario, while under the other scenarios, no changes can be found. Two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) of three general circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM3, and CCSM3) were employed to generate future possible climatic conditions. Under changed climatic condition, hydrological variations are induced by the combination of land-use and climatic changes. The results indicate that the impacts of land-use changes become secondary when the changed climatic conditions have been considered. The frequencies of extreme flood and drought are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under all climate scenarios. Although some agreements can be reached, pronounced difference of hydrological responses can be observed for different climate scenarios of different GCMs.

  15. Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Yu, Wenjun; Ge, Yingchun

    2016-02-01

    This study quantified the hydrological responses to land-use change scenarios in the upper and middle Heihe River basin (HRB), northwest China, under constant and changed climatic conditions by combining a land-use/cover change model (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects, Dyna-CLUE) and a hydrological model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT). Five land-use change scenarios, i.e., historical trend (HT), ecological protection (EP), strict ecological protection (SEP), economic development (ED), and rapid economic development (RED) scenarios, were established. Under constant climatic condition, hydrological variations are only induced by land-use changes in different scenarios. The changes in mean streamflow at the outlets of the upper and the middle HRB are not pronounced, although the different scenarios produce different outcomes. However, more pronounced changes are observed on a subbasin level. The frequency of extreme flood is projected to decrease under the SEP scenario, while under the other scenarios, no changes can be found. Two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) of three general circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM3, and CCSM3) were employed to generate future possible climatic conditions. Under changed climatic condition, hydrological variations are induced by the combination of land-use and climatic changes. The results indicate that the impacts of land-use changes become secondary when the changed climatic conditions have been considered. The frequencies of extreme flood and drought are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under all climate scenarios. Although some agreements can be reached, pronounced difference of hydrological responses can be observed for different climate scenarios of different GCMs.

  16. Underground infrastructure damage for a Chicago scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Dey, Thomas N; Bos, Rabdall J

    2011-01-25

    Estimating effects due to an urban IND (improvised nuclear device) on underground structures and underground utilities is a challenging task. Nuclear effects tests performed at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) during the era of nuclear weapons testing provides much information on how underground military structures respond. Transferring this knowledge to answer questions about the urban civilian environment is needed to help plan responses to IND scenarios. Explosions just above the ground surface can only couple a small fraction of the blast energy into an underground shock. The various forms of nuclear radiation have limited penetration into the ground. While the shock transmitted into the ground carries only a small fraction of the blast energy, peak stresses are generally higher and peak ground displacement is lower than in the air blast. While underground military structures are often designed to resist stresses substantially higher than due to the overlying rocks and soils (overburden), civilian structures such as subways and tunnels would generally only need to resist overburden conditions with a suitable safety factor. Just as we expect the buildings themselves to channel and shield air blast above ground, basements and other underground openings as well as changes of geology will channel and shield the underground shock wave. While a weaker shock is expected in an urban environment, small displacements on very close-by faults, and more likely, soils being displaced past building foundations where utility lines enter could readily damaged or disable these services. Immediately near an explosion, the blast can 'liquefy' a saturated soil creating a quicksand-like condition for a period of time. We extrapolate the nuclear effects experience to a Chicago-based scenario. We consider the TARP (Tunnel and Reservoir Project) and subway system and the underground lifeline (electric, gas, water, etc) system and provide guidance for planning this scenario.

  17. Riparian vegetation structure under desertification scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosário Fernandes, M.; Segurado, Pedro; Jauch, Eduardo; Ferreira, M. Teresa

    2015-04-01

    Riparian areas are responsible for many ecological and ecosystems services, including the filtering function, that are considered crucial to the preservation of water quality and social benefits. The main goal of this study is to quantify and understand the riparian variability under desertification scenario(s) and identify the optimal riparian indicators for water scarcity and droughts (WS&D), henceforth improving river basin management. This study was performed in the Iberian Tâmega basin, using riparian woody patches, mapped by visual interpretation on Google Earth imagery, along 130 Sampling Units of 250 m long river stretches. Eight riparian structural indicators, related with lateral dimension, weighted area and shape complexity of riparian patches were calculated using Patch Analyst extension for ArcGis 10. A set of 29 hydrological, climatic, and hydrogeomorphological variables were computed, by a water modelling system (MOHID), using monthly meteorological data between 2008 and 2014. Land-use classes were also calculated, in a 250m-buffer surrounding each sampling unit, using a classification based system on Corine Land Cover. Boosted Regression Trees identified Mean-width (MW) as the optimal riparian indicator for water scarcity and drought, followed by the Weighted Class Area (WCA) (classification accuracy =0.79 and 0.69 respectively). Average Flow and Strahler number were consistently selected, by all boosted models, as the most important explanatory variables. However, a combined effect of hidrogeomorphology and land-use can explain the high variability found in the riparian width mainly in Tâmega tributaries. Riparian patches are larger towards Tâmega river mouth although with lower shape complexity, probably related with more continuous and almost monospecific stands. Climatic, hydrological and land use scenarios, singly and combined, were used to quantify the riparian variability responding to these changes, and to assess the loss of riparian

  18. Jet aircraft engine exhaust emissions database development: Year 1990 and 2015 scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Landau, Z. Harry; Metwally, Munir; Vanalstyne, Richard; Ward, Clay A.

    1994-01-01

    Studies relating to environmental emissions associated with the High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) military jet and charter jet aircraft were conducted by McDonnell Douglas Aerospace Transport Aircraft. The report includes engine emission results for baseline 1990 charter and military scenario and the projected jet engine emissions results for a 2015 scenario for a Mach 1.6 HSCT charter and military fleet. Discussions of the methodology used in formulating these databases are provided.

  19. CFDP Configuration: Enclid and Juice Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Valverde, Alberto; Taylor, Chris; Montesinos, Juan Antonio; Maiorano, Elena; Colombo, Cyril; Erd, Christian; Magistrati, Giorgio

    2014-08-01

    This paper presents the work done within the ESA ESTEC Data Systems Division, targeting the implementation of CFDP in future ESA Science Missions. EUCLID and JUICE currently include CCSDS File Delivery Protocol (CFDP) as baseline for payload data transfer to ground. The two missions have completely different characteristics, although both present quite demanding scenarios. Using the communication link characteristics as an input, some simulations have been performed to optimize the CFDP configuration and get some preliminary figures on the retransmission overhead, payload data bandwidth and number of parallel transactions needed to maintain full bandwidth utilization. The paper provides some guidelines on CFDP configuration and usage that can be useful in future CFDP implementations.

  20. Reality based scenarios facilitate knowledge network development.

    PubMed

    Manning, J; Broughton, V; McConnell, E A

    1995-03-01

    The challenge in nursing education is to create a learning environment that enables students to learn new knowledge, access previously acquired information from a variety of disciplines, and apply this newly constructed knowledge to the complex and constantly changing world of practice. Faculty at the University of South Australia, School of Nursing, City Campus describe the use of reality based scenarios to acquire domain-specific knowledge and develop well connected associative knowledge networks, both of which facilitate theory based practice and the student's transition to the role of registered nurse.

  1. On adiabatic perturbations in the ekpyrotic scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Linde, A.; Mukhanov, V.; Vikman, A. E-mail: Viatcheslav.Mukhanov@physik.uni-muenchen.de

    2010-02-01

    In a recent paper, Khoury and Steinhardt proposed a way to generate adiabatic cosmological perturbations with a nearly flat spectrum in a contracting Universe. To produce these perturbations they used a regime in which the equation of state exponentially rapidly changed during a short time interval. Leaving aside the singularity problem and the difficult question about the possibility to transmit these perturbations from a contracting Universe to the expanding phase, we will show that the methods used in Khoury are inapplicable for the description of the cosmological evolution and of the process of generation of perturbations in this scenario.

  2. Postulated accident scenarios in weapons disassembly

    SciTech Connect

    Payne, S.S.

    1997-06-01

    A very brief summary of three postulated accident scenarios for weapons disassembly is provided in the paper. The first deals with a tetrahedral configuration of four generic pits; the second, an infinite planar array of generic pits with varying interstitial water density; and the third, a spherical shell with internal mass suspension in water varying the size and mass of the shell. Calculations were performed using the Monte Carlo Neutron Photon transport code MCNP4A. Preliminary calculations pointed to a need for higher resolution of small pit separation regimes and snapshots of hydrodynamic processes of water/plutonium mixtures.

  3. Methodologies for Estimating Future Climate Change Scenarios of Surface Solar Radiation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Swamy, A.

    2013-12-01

    A variety of methods are available to estimate future solar radiation (SR) scenarios at spatial scales that are appropriate for local climate change impact assessment, but no clear guidelines are available in the literature to decide which methodologies are most suitable for different applications. Three methodologies to guide the estimation of SR are discussed in this study. In Case 1, SR is measured; in Case 2, SR is measured but sparse; and in Case 3, SR is not measured. In Case 1, future SR scenarios are derived using several downscaling methodologies that transfer the large-scale information simulated by global climate models (GCM) to a local scale (measurements). In Case 2, SR is first estimated at the local scale for a longer time period using sparse measured records, then future scenarios are derived using several downscaling methodologies. In Case 3, SR is first estimated at a regional scale for a longer time-period using complete or sparse measured records of SR, from which SR at local scale is estimated. Finally, in Case 3 methodology, the future scenarios are derived using several downscaling methodologies. A lack of observed SR data, has hindered various climate change impact studies. So Case 3 methodology is elaborated using Support vector machine based downscaling. Future scenarios of SR were estimated monthly from simulations of the third-generation Canadian General Circulation Model (CGCM3) for various SRES emission scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and COMMIT).

  4. Mapping Agricultural Land-Use Change in the US: Biofuel scenarios from 2000-2030

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    West, T. O.; Bandaru, V.; Hellwinckel, C. M.; Brandt, C. C.

    2011-12-01

    Uniform methods for land use assessment from local to continental scales are important for supporting national policies that focus on local management. In an effort to bridge local and national scales, we have been conducting land-use change research for the continental U.S. and doing so using 56-m resolution land use data. We have recently completed five scenarios of agricultural land-use change that represent a range of plausible biomass feedstock production. The scenarios include meeting targets of the Energy Independence and Security Act; alternative scenarios of only corn grain ethanol versus only cellulosic ethanol production; and alternative scenarios of no ethanol production with current agricultural program incentives versus no ethanol production with no monetary incentives for agricultural practices. These scenarios have implications for carbon cycling, greenhouse gas emissions, soil erosion, water quality, and other environmental variables. These scenarios also represent relevant policy issues that are currently being debated. We will present methods used to estimate future land-use change that include use of the USDA Cropland Data Layer, the POLYSYS agricultural economic model, and the Land Use Carbon Allocation model. We will present results that include spatially-explicit changes in crop rotations associated with the aforementioned biofuel scenarios. Results will consist of acreage changes per crop and the expected geographic location of these changes for years 2000-2030.

  5. Evaluation of Future Precipitation Scenario Using Statistical Downscaling MODEL over Three Climatic Region of Nepal Himalaya

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sigdel, M.

    2014-12-01

    Statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was applied in downscaling precipitation in the three climatic regions such as humid, sub-humid and arid region of Nepal Himalaya. The study includes the calibration of the SDSM model by using large-scale atmospheric variables encompassing NCEP reanalysis data, the validation of the model and the outputs of downscaled scenarios A2 (high green house gases emission) and B2 (low green house gases emission) of the HadCM3 model for the future. Under both scenarios H3A2 and H3B2, during the prediction period of 2010-2099, the change of annual mean precipitation in the three climatic regions would present a tendency of surplus of precipitation as compared to the mean values of the base period. On the average for all three climatic regions of Nepal the annual mean precipitation would increase by about 13.75% under scenario H3A2 and increase near about 11.68% under scenario H3B2 in the 2050s. For the 2080s there would be increase of 8.28% and 13.30% under H3A2 and H3B2 respectively compared to the base period.

  6. SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: Economic Impacts and Resilience

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wein, A. M.; Rose, A.; Sue Wing, I.; Wei, D.

    2013-12-01

    Business interruption (BI) losses for the SAFRR tsunami scenario are derived from the forecasted physical damages of about 100 million at the Ports of Los Angeles (LA) and Long Beach (LB), and 700 million in marina damages, and 2 billion in inundated property damages along the California coast. Economic impacts are measured by the reduction in California's gross domestic product (GDP). The analysis involves several steps. First, estimates are made of immediate business interruption losses due to physical damage to facilities or to disruption of production. Second, total economic impacts (consisting of both direct and indirect effects) are measured by a general equilibrium (quantity and price multiplier effects) of lost production in other sectors through ripple effects upstream and downstream along the supply chain. Third, many types of resilience are applied to demonstrate their potential reductions of the impacts. At the Ports of LA and LB, a two-day port shutdown, cargo losses, and additional terminal downtimes would expose 1.2 billion of trade (import and export) value associated with over 4 billion of BI losses. The sectors potentially most affected by trade disruptions are leather, metal, and motor vehicle manufacturing. Excess capacity, inventories, export conversion, and conservation could reduce the direct trade impacts by 85%. Production recapture alone (including clearing the backlog of waiting ships) could reduce BI losses by 85%. The Port of LA commercial fishing would be subject to damages to the fleet, perished fish that cannot be landed, and lost fishing days. Although BI losses are relatively small, the southern Californian fishing sector could incur a 4% drop in output. The impacts would depend on the speed at which boats are repaired and whether lost fishing days can be made up. Ship-building and repair could also be negatively affected, but these impacts would be offset somewhat by reconstruction. Effects on commercial fishing in other locations

  7. Strategies for cost-effective carbon reductions: A sensitivity analysis of alternative scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Gumerman, Etan; Koomey, Jonathan G.; Brown, Marilyn

    2001-07-11

    Analyses of alternative futures often present results for a limited set of scenarios, with little if any sensitivity analysis to identify the factors affecting the scenario results. This approach creates an artificial impression of certainty associated with the scenarios considered, and inhibits understanding of the underlying forces. This paper summarizes the economic and carbon savings sensitivity analysis completed for the Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future study (IWG, 2000). Its 19 sensitivity cases provide insight into the costs and carbon-reduction impacts of a carbon permit trading system, demand-side efficiency programs, and supply-side policies. Impacts under different natural gas and oil price trajectories are also examined. The results provide compelling evidence that policy opportunities exist to reduce carbon emissions and save society money.

  8. A ΛCDM bounce scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cai, Yi-Fu; Wilson-Ewing, Edward

    2015-03-01

    We study a contracting universe composed of cold dark matter and radiation, and with a positive cosmological constant. As is well known from standard cosmological perturbation theory, under the assumption of initial quantum vacuum fluctuations the Fourier modes of the comoving curvature perturbation that exit the (sound) Hubble radius in such a contracting universe at a time of matter-domination will be nearly scale-invariant. Furthermore, the modes that exit the (sound) Hubble radius when the effective equation of state is slightly negative due to the cosmological constant will have a slight red tilt, in agreement with observations. We assume that loop quantum cosmology captures the correct high-curvature dynamics of the space-time, and this ensures that the big-bang singularity is resolved and is replaced by a bounce. We calculate the evolution of the perturbations through the bounce and find that they remain nearly scale-invariant. We also show that the amplitude of the scalar perturbations in this cosmology depends on a combination of the sound speed of cold dark matter, the Hubble rate in the contracting branch at the time of equality of the energy densities of cold dark matter and radiation, and the curvature scale that the loop quantum cosmology bounce occurs at. Importantly, as this scenario predicts a positive running of the scalar index, observations can potentially differentiate between it and inflationary models. Finally, for a small sound speed of cold dark matter, this scenario predicts a small tensor-to-scalar ratio.

  9. Mars Sample Return mission: Two alternate scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1991-01-01

    Two scenarios for accomplishing a Mars Sample Return mission are presented herein. Mission A is a low cost, low mass scenario, while Mission B is a high technology, high science alternative. Mission A begins with the launch of one Titan IV rocket with a Centaur G' upper stage. The Centaur performs the trans-Mars injection burn and is then released. The payload consists of two lander packages and the Orbital Transfer Vehicle, which is responsible for supporting the landers during launch and interplanetary cruise. After descending to the surface, the landers deploy small, local rovers to collect samples. Mission B starts with 4 Titan IV launches, used to place the parts of the Planetary Transfer Vehicle (PTV) into orbit. The fourth launch payload is able to move to assemble the entire vehicle by simple docking routines. Once complete, the PTV begins a low thrust trajectory out from low Earth orbit, through interplanetary space, and into low Martian orbit. It deploys a communication satellite into a 1/2 sol orbit and then releases the lander package at 500 km altitude. The lander package contains the lander, the Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV), two lighter than air rovers (called Aereons), and one conventional land rover. The entire package is contained with a biconic aeroshell. After release from the PTV, the lander package descends to the surface, where all three rovers are released to collect samples and map the terrain.

  10. An Experiment on Graph Analysis Methodologies for Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Brothers, Alan J.; Whitney, Paul D.; Wolf, Katherine E.; Kuchar, Olga A.; Chin, George

    2005-09-30

    Visual graph representations are increasingly used to represent, display, and explore scenarios and the structure of organizations. The graph representations of scenarios are readily understood, and commercial software is available to create and manage these representations. The purpose of the research presented in this paper is to explore whether these graph representations support quantitative assessments of the underlying scenarios. The underlying structure of the scenarios is the information that is being targeted in the experiment and the extent to which the scenarios are similar in content. An experiment was designed that incorporated both the contents of the scenarios and analysts’ graph representations of the scenarios. The scenarios’ content was represented graphically by analysts, and both the structure and the semantics of the graph representation were attempted to be used to understand the content. The structure information was not found to be discriminating for the content of the scenarios in this experiment; but, the semantic information was discriminating.

  11. FORMAL SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT FOR ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT STUDIES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Scenario analysis is a process of evaluating possible future events through the consideration of alternative plausible (though not equally likely) outcomes (scenarios). The analysis is designed to enable improved decision-making and assessment through a more rigorous evaluation o...

  12. Scenario tree reduction in stochastic programming with recourse for hydropower operations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Bin; Zhong, Ping-An; Zambon, Renato C.; Zhao, Yunfa; Yeh, William W.-G.

    2015-08-01

    A stochastic programming with recourse model requires the consequences of recourse actions be modeled for all possible realizations of the stochastic variables. Continuous stochastic variables are approximated by scenario trees. This paper evaluates the impact of scenario tree reduction on model performance for hydropower operations and suggests procedures to determine the optimal level of scenario tree reduction. We first establish a stochastic programming model for the optimal operation of a cascaded system of reservoirs for hydropower production. We then use the neural gas method to generate scenario trees and employ a Monte Carlo method to systematically reduce the scenario trees. We conduct in-sample and out-of-sample tests to evaluate the impact of scenario tree reduction on the objective function of the hydropower optimization model. We then apply a statistical hypothesis test to determine the significance of the impact due to scenario tree reduction. We develop a stochastic programming with recourse model and apply it to real-time operation for hydropower production to determine the loss in solution accuracy due to scenario tree reduction. We apply the proposed methodology to the Qingjiang cascade system of reservoirs in China. The results show: (1) the neural gas method preserves the mean value of the original streamflow series but introduces bias to variance, cross variance, and lag-one covariance due to information loss when the original tree is systematically reduced; (2) reducing the scenario number by as much as 40% results in insignificant change in the objective function and solution quality, but significantly reduces computational demand.

  13. Hypertension and renal artery stenosis: a complex clinical scenario.

    PubMed

    Jaff, M R

    2000-10-01

    Hypertension remains the most common reason for patients to visit physicians in the United States. Although awareness of hypertension among patients continues to increase, adequate control of hypertension remains poor. In addition, as the population of patients with hypertension ages, atherosclerosis becomes increasingly prevalent. Atherosclerotic renal artery stenosis is the most common secondary cause of hypertension and can cause hypertension to be difficult to control. Atherosclerotic renal artery stenosis may also result in chronic renal insufficiency. The physician must be aware of the clinical scenarios in which renal artery stenosis may occur, methods of diagnosis, and indications for intervention.

  14. Stability of distributed MPC in an intersection scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sprodowski, T.; Pannek, J.

    2015-11-01

    The research topic of autonomous cars and the communication among them has attained much attention in the last years and is developing quickly. Among others, this research area spans fields such as image recognition, mathematical control theory, communication networks, and sensor fusion. We consider an intersection scenario where we divide the shared road space in different cells. These cells form a grid. The cars are modelled as an autonomous multi-agent system based on the Distributed Model Predictive Control algorithm (DMPC). We prove that the overall system reaches stability using Optimal Control for each multi-agent and demonstrate that by numerical results.

  15. Simulation of scenario earthquake influenced field by using GIS

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Zuo, H.-Q.; Xie, L.-L.; Borcherdt, R.D.

    1999-01-01

    The method for estimating the site effect on ground motion specified by Borcherdt (1994a, 1994b) is briefly introduced in the paper. This method and the detail geological data and site classification data in San Francisco bay area of California, the United States, are applied to simulate the influenced field of scenario earthquake by GIS technology, and the software for simulating has been drawn up. The paper is a partial result of cooperative research project between China Seismological Bureau and US Geological Survey.

  16. Scalar perturbations in conformal rolling scenario with intermediate stage

    SciTech Connect

    Libanov, M.; Ramazanov, S.; Rubakov, V. E-mail: sabir@ms2.inr.ac.ru

    2011-06-01

    Scalar cosmological perturbations with nearly flat power spectrum may originate from perturbations of the phase of a scalar field conformally coupled to gravity and rolling down negative quartic potential. We consider a version of this scenario whose specific property is a long intermediate stage between the end of conformal rolling and horizon exit of the phase perturbations. Such a stage is natural, e.g., in cosmologies with ekpyrosis or genesis. Its existence results in small negative scalar tilt, statistical anisotropy of all even multipoles starting from quardupole of general structure (in contrast to the usually discussed single quadrupole of special type) and non-Gaussianity of a peculiar form.

  17. Alternative future scenarios for the SPS comparative assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ayres, R. U.; Ridker, R. G.; Watson, W. D., Jr.; Arnold, J.; Tayi, G.

    1980-08-01

    Terrestrial alternatives are selected, and their cost, performance, and environmental and social attributes are specified for use in the comparison with the SPS in the post 2000 era. Data on alternative technologies were sought from previous research and from other comparisons. The economic/energy interactions are discussed, and a number of specific modelling schemes that were used for long range forecasting purposes are described. This discussion provides the rationale for the choice of a specific model and methodology, which is described. Long range cost assumptions used in the forecast are detailed, and the basis for the selection of specific scenarios follows. Results of the analysis are detailed.

  18. Modified gravity in three dimensional metric-affine scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bambi, Cosimo; Ghasemi-Nodehi, M.; Rubiera-Garcia, D.

    2015-08-01

    We consider metric-affine scenarios where a modified gravitational action is sourced by electrovacuum fields in a three dimensional space-time. We first study the case of f (R ) theories, finding deviations near the center as compared to the solutions of general relativity. We then consider Born-Infeld gravity, which has raised a lot of interest in the last few years regarding its applications in astrophysics and cosmology, and show that new features always arise at a finite distance from the center. Several properties of the resulting space-times, in particular in presence of a cosmological constant term, are discussed.

  19. Nomenclature updates resulting from the evolution of avian influenza A(H5) virus clades 2.1.3.2a, 2.2.1, and 2.3.4 during 2013–2014

    PubMed Central

    Smith, Gavin J D; Donis, Ruben O

    2015-01-01

    Aim The A/goose/Guangdong/1/96-like hemagglutinin (HA) genes of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5) viruses have continued to rapidly evolve since the most recent update to the H5 clade nomenclature by the WHO/OIE/FAO H5N1 Evolution Working Group. New clades diverging beyond established boundaries need to be identified and designated accordingly. Method Hemagglutinin sequences deposited in publicly accessible databases up to December 31, 2014, were analyzed by phylogenetic and average pairwise distance methods to identify new clades that merit nomenclature changes. Results Three new clade designations were recommended based on division of clade 2·1·3·2a (Indonesia), 2·2·1 (Egypt), and 2·3·4 (widespread detection in Asia, Europe, and North America) that includes newly emergent HPAI virus subtypes H5N2, H5N3, H5N5, H5N6, and H5N8. Conclusion Continued global surveillance for HPAI A(H5) viruses in all host species and timely reporting of sequence data will be critical to quickly identify new clades and assess their potential impact on human and animal health. PMID:25966311

  20. Future Forest Cover Change Scenarios with Implications for Landslide Risk: An Example from Buzau Subcarpathians, Romania

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malek, Žiga; Boerboom, Luc; Glade, Thomas

    2015-11-01

    This study focuses on future forest cover change in Buzau Subcarpathians, a landslide prone region in Romania. Past and current trends suggest that the area might expect a future increase in deforestation. We developed spatially explicit scenarios until 2040 to analyze the spatial pattern of future forest cover change and potential changes to landslide risk. First, we generated transition probability maps using the weights of evidence method, followed by a cellular automata allocation model. We performed expert interviews, to develop two future forest management scenarios. The Alternative scenario (ALT) was defined by 67 % more deforestation than the Business as Usual scenario (BAU). We integrated the simulated scenarios with a landslide susceptibility map. In both scenarios, most of deforestation was projected in areas where landslides are less likely to occur. Still, 483 (ALT) and 276 (BAU) ha of deforestation were projected on areas with a high-landslide occurrence likelihood. Thus, deforestation could lead to a local-scale increase in landslide risk, in particular near or adjacent to forestry roads. The parallel process of near 10 % forest expansion until 2040 was projected to occur mostly on areas with high-landslide susceptibility. On a regional scale, forest expansion could so result in improved slope stability. We modeled two additional scenarios with an implemented landslide risk policy, excluding high-risk zones. The reduction of deforestation on high-risk areas was achieved without a drastic decrease in the accessibility of the areas. Together with forest expansion, it could therefore be used as a risk reduction strategy.

  1. Future Forest Cover Change Scenarios with Implications for Landslide Risk: An Example from Buzau Subcarpathians, Romania.

    PubMed

    Malek, Žiga; Boerboom, Luc; Glade, Thomas

    2015-11-01

    This study focuses on future forest cover change in Buzau Subcarpathians, a landslide prone region in Romania. Past and current trends suggest that the area might expect a future increase in deforestation. We developed spatially explicit scenarios until 2040 to analyze the spatial pattern of future forest cover change and potential changes to landslide risk. First, we generated transition probability maps using the weights of evidence method, followed by a cellular automata allocation model. We performed expert interviews, to develop two future forest management scenarios. The Alternative scenario (ALT) was defined by 67% more deforestation than the Business as Usual scenario (BAU). We integrated the simulated scenarios with a landslide susceptibility map. In both scenarios, most of deforestation was projected in areas where landslides are less likely to occur. Still, 483 (ALT) and 276 (BAU) ha of deforestation were projected on areas with a high-landslide occurrence likelihood. Thus, deforestation could lead to a local-scale increase in landslide risk, in particular near or adjacent to forestry roads. The parallel process of near 10% forest expansion until 2040 was projected to occur mostly on areas with high-landslide susceptibility. On a regional scale, forest expansion could so result in improved slope stability. We modeled two additional scenarios with an implemented landslide risk policy, excluding high-risk zones. The reduction of deforestation on high-risk areas was achieved without a drastic decrease in the accessibility of the areas. Together with forest expansion, it could therefore be used as a risk reduction strategy.

  2. The Spokane Tribe's multipathway subsistence exposure scenario and screening level RME.

    PubMed

    Harper, Barbara L; Flett, Brian; Harris, Stuart; Abeyta, Corn; Kirschner, Fred

    2002-06-01

    Exposure scenarios are a critical part of risk assessment; however, representative scenarios are not generally available for tribal communities where a traditional subsistence lifestyle and diet are relevant and actively encouraged. This article presents portions of a multipathway exposure scenario developed by AESE, Inc. in conjunction with the Spokane Tribal Cultural Resources Program. The scenario serves as the basis for a screening-level reasonable maximum exposure (RME) developed for the Midnite Uranium Mine Superfund site. The process used in developing this scenario balances the need to characterize exposures without revealing proprietary information. The scenario and resulting RME reflect the subsistence use of original and existing natural resources by a hypothetical but representative family living on the reservation at or near the mine site. The representative family lives in a house in a sparsely populated conifer forest, tends a home garden, partakes in a high rate of subsistence activities (hunting, gathering, fishing), uses a sweat lodge daily, has a regular schedule of other cultural activities, and has members employed in outdoor monitoring of natural and cultural resources. The scenario includes two largely subsistence diets based on fish or game, both of which include native plants and home-grown produce. Data gaps and sources of uncertainty are identified. Additional information that risk assessors and agencies need to understand before doing any kind of risk assessment or public health assessment in tribal situations is presented.

  3. Simulation of future stream alkalinity under changing deposition and climate scenarios.

    PubMed

    Welsch, Daniel L; Cosby, B Jack; Hornberger, George M

    2006-08-31

    Models of soil and stream water acidification have typically been applied under scenarios of changing acidic deposition, however, climate change is usually ignored. Soil air CO2 concentrations have potential to increase as climate warms and becomes wetter, thus affecting soil and stream water chemistry by initially increasing stream alkalinity at the expense of reducing base saturation levels on soil exchange sites. We simulate this change by applying a series of physically based coupled models capable of predicting soil air CO2 and stream water chemistry. We predict daily stream water alkalinity for a small catchment in the Virginia Blue Ridge for 60 years into the future given stochastically generated daily climate values. This is done for nine different combinations of climate and deposition. The scenarios for both climate and deposition include a static scenario, a scenario of gradual change, and a scenario of abrupt change. We find that stream water alkalinity continues to decline for all scenarios (average decrease of 14.4 microeq L-1) except where climate is gradually warming and becoming more moist (average increase of 13 microeq L-1). In all other scenarios, base cation removal from catchment soils is responsible for limited alkalinity increase resulting from climate change. This has implications given the extent that acidification models are used to establish policy and legislation concerning deposition and emissions.

  4. Simulation of future stream alkalinity under changing deposition and climate scenarios.

    PubMed

    Welsch, Daniel L; Cosby, B Jack; Hornberger, George M

    2006-08-31

    Models of soil and stream water acidification have typically been applied under scenarios of changing acidic deposition, however, climate change is usually ignored. Soil air CO2 concentrations have potential to increase as climate warms and becomes wetter, thus affecting soil and stream water chemistry by initially increasing stream alkalinity at the expense of reducing base saturation levels on soil exchange sites. We simulate this change by applying a series of physically based coupled models capable of predicting soil air CO2 and stream water chemistry. We predict daily stream water alkalinity for a small catchment in the Virginia Blue Ridge for 60 years into the future given stochastically generated daily climate values. This is done for nine different combinations of climate and deposition. The scenarios for both climate and deposition include a static scenario, a scenario of gradual change, and a scenario of abrupt change. We find that stream water alkalinity continues to decline for all scenarios (average decrease of 14.4 microeq L-1) except where climate is gradually warming and becoming more moist (average increase of 13 microeq L-1). In all other scenarios, base cation removal from catchment soils is responsible for limited alkalinity increase resulting from climate change. This has implications given the extent that acidification models are used to establish policy and legislation concerning deposition and emissions. PMID:16600331

  5. Effects of Scenario Planning on Participant Mental Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Glick, Margaret B.; Chermack, Thomas J.; Luckel, Henry; Gauck, Brian Q.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to assess the effects of scenario planning on participant mental model styles. Design/methodology/approach: The scenario planning literature is consistent with claims that scenario planning can change individual mental models. These claims are supported by anecdotal evidence and stories from the practical…

  6. 40 CFR 68.28 - Alternative release scenario analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... from failures at flanges, joints, welds, valves and valve seals, and drains or bleeds; (iii) Process... 40 Protection of Environment 16 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Alternative release scenario analysis... scenario analysis. (a) The number of scenarios. The owner or operator shall identify and analyze at...

  7. 40 CFR 68.28 - Alternative release scenario analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... from failures at flanges, joints, welds, valves and valve seals, and drains or bleeds; (iii) Process... 40 Protection of Environment 16 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Alternative release scenario analysis... scenario analysis. (a) The number of scenarios. The owner or operator shall identify and analyze at...

  8. 40 CFR 68.28 - Alternative release scenario analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 16 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Alternative release scenario analysis... scenario analysis. (a) The number of scenarios. The owner or operator shall identify and analyze at least... Consequence Analysis Guidance or any commercially or publicly available air dispersion modeling...

  9. Scenarios for the Future of Teacher Education in Europe.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Snoek, Marco; Baldwin, Gavin; Cautreels, Paul; Enemaerke, Torsten; Halstead, Valerie; Hilton, Gillian; Klemp, Torunn; Leriche, Leo; Linde, Goran; Nilsen, Elisabeth; Rehn, Joran; Smet, Ronny; Smith, Kari; Sousa, Jesus Maria; Stomp, Lex; Svensson, Hans; and Svensson, Leif

    2003-01-01

    Presents four scenarios that illustrate possible futures of teacher education in Europe. The scenarios differ in their emphasis on four driving forces: pragmatism, idealism, individualism, and social coherence. Each scenario is described in terms of characteristics of society, education/teacher education, and teacher/teacher educator roles and is…

  10. Environmental impacts of high penetration renewable energy scenarios for Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berrill, Peter; Arvesen, Anders; Scholz, Yvonne; Gils, Hans Christian; Hertwich, Edgar G.

    2016-01-01

    The prospect of irreversible environmental alterations and an increasingly volatile climate pressurises societies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, thereby mitigating climate change impacts. As global electricity demand continues to grow, particularly if considering a future with increased electrification of heat and transport sectors, the imperative to decarbonise our electricity supply becomes more urgent. This letter implements outputs of a detailed power system optimisation model into a prospective life cycle analysis framework in order to present a life cycle analysis of 44 electricity scenarios for Europe in 2050, including analyses of systems based largely on low-carbon fossil energy options (natural gas, and coal with carbon capture and storage (CCS)) as well as systems with high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) (wind and solar). VRE curtailments and impacts caused by extra energy storage and transmission capabilities necessary in systems based on VRE are taken into account. The results show that systems based largely on VRE perform much better regarding climate change and other impact categories than the investigated systems based on fossil fuels. The climate change impacts from Europe for the year 2050 in a scenario using primarily natural gas are 1400 Tg CO2-eq while in a scenario using mostly coal with CCS the impacts are 480 Tg CO2-eq. Systems based on renewables with an even mix of wind and solar capacity generate impacts of 120-140 Tg CO2-eq. Impacts arising as a result of wind and solar variability do not significantly compromise the climate benefits of utilising these energy resources. VRE systems require more infrastructure leading to much larger mineral resource depletion impacts than fossil fuel systems, and greater land occupation impacts than systems based on natural gas. Emissions and resource requirements from wind power are smaller than from solar power.

  11. [Scenario analysis on sustainable development of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city based on emergy and system dynamics].

    PubMed

    Li, Chun-fa; Cao, Ying-ying; Yang, Jian-cho; Yang, Qi-qi

    2015-08-01

    Dynamic evaluation of sustainable development is one of the key fundamental parts of the success of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city, which is the first eco-city in China constructed by international cooperation. Based on the analysis of nature and economy, function and structure, planning control indices and so on, we constructed a sustainable development evaluation index system and a system dynamics model of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city to explore dynamic trends of its population, material and currency by comprehensive utilization of emergy analysis and system dynamics method. Five scenarios were set up and simulated, including inertial scenario, scientific and technological scenario, economic scenario, environmental scenario and harmonious development scenario. Then, the sustainability of the 5 scenarios was evaluated and compared. The results showed that in the economy and environment sustainable development scenario, there was a steady growth trend of GDP, accumulation of both emergy and currency, and relatively lower values in emergy waste ratio, emergy ratio of waste, and emergy loading ratio. Although both sustainable evaluation indices, such as ESI and UEI, were relatively low, the economy and environment sustainable development scenario was still the best development scenario which was more active than others. PMID:26685610

  12. [Scenario analysis on sustainable development of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city based on emergy and system dynamics].

    PubMed

    Li, Chun-fa; Cao, Ying-ying; Yang, Jian-cho; Yang, Qi-qi

    2015-08-01

    Dynamic evaluation of sustainable development is one of the key fundamental parts of the success of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city, which is the first eco-city in China constructed by international cooperation. Based on the analysis of nature and economy, function and structure, planning control indices and so on, we constructed a sustainable development evaluation index system and a system dynamics model of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city to explore dynamic trends of its population, material and currency by comprehensive utilization of emergy analysis and system dynamics method. Five scenarios were set up and simulated, including inertial scenario, scientific and technological scenario, economic scenario, environmental scenario and harmonious development scenario. Then, the sustainability of the 5 scenarios was evaluated and compared. The results showed that in the economy and environment sustainable development scenario, there was a steady growth trend of GDP, accumulation of both emergy and currency, and relatively lower values in emergy waste ratio, emergy ratio of waste, and emergy loading ratio. Although both sustainable evaluation indices, such as ESI and UEI, were relatively low, the economy and environment sustainable development scenario was still the best development scenario which was more active than others.

  13. Efficacy and safety of finasteride therapy for benign prostatic hyperplasia: results of a 2-year randomized controlled trial (the PROSPECT study). PROscar Safety Plus Efficacy Canadian Two year Study.

    PubMed Central

    Nickel, J C; Fradet, Y; Boake, R C; Pommerville, P J; Perreault, J P; Afridi, S K; Elhilali, M M

    1996-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the efficacy and safety of 2 years' treatment of moderate benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) with finasteride. DESIGN: Double-blind, parallel-group, placebo-controlled, multicentre, prospective randomized study. SETTING: Outpatient care in 28 centres across Canada. PARTICIPANTS: Men aged 45 to 80, in good health, with moderate BPH and no evidence of prostate cancer. A total of 613 men were entered into the study; 472 completed the 2 years of treatment. INTERVENTION: After 1 month of receiving a placebo (run-in period), patients were given either finasteride (5 mg/d) or a placebo for 2 years. OUTCOME MEASURES: Efficacy: changes from baseline in BPH symptom scores, maximum urinary flow rates and prostate volume. Safety: onset, course and resolution of all adverse events during the treatment period. RESULTS: In the efficacy analyses the mean BPH symptom scores decreased 2.1 points (from 15.8 to 13.7) in the finasteride group, as compared with a decrease of 0.7 points (from 16.6 to 15.9) in the placebo group (P < or = 0.01). The maximum urinary flow rate increased by a mean of 1.4 mL/s (from 11.1 to 12.5 mL/s) in the finasteride group, as compared with an increase of 0.3 mL/s (from 10.9 to 11.2 mL/s) in the placebo group (p < or = 0.01). The mean prostate volume decreased by 21% (from a mean volume of 44.1 cm3 at baseline) in the treatment group; it increased by 8.4% (from a mean volume of 45.8 cm3 at baseline) in the placebo group (p < or = 0.01). In the safety analysis, the proportion of patients who experienced any adverse event was similar in the two groups (81.0% in the treatment group and 81.2% in the placebo group). However, the incidence of adverse events related to sexual dysfunction were significantly higher in the finasteride group than in the placebo group (ejaculation disorder 7.7% v. 1.7% and impotence 15.8% v. 6.3%; p < or = 0.01 for both parameters). CONCLUSION: Finasteride is a well-tolerated and effective alternative to watchful

  14. The Future of Land Use in the United States: Downscaling SRES Emission Scenarios to Ecoregions and Pixels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sleeter, B. M.; Sohl, T. L.; Sayler, K.; Bouchard, M. A.; Reker, R.; Sleeter, R. R.; Zhu, Z.; Auch, R.; Acevedo, W.; Soulard, C. E.; Griffith, G.

    2011-12-01

    Scenario analysis has emerged as a useful tool for evaluating uncertain futures in ecological systems. We describe research initiated by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to develop a comprehensive portfolio of future land-use and land-cover (LULC) scenarios for the United States. The USGS has identified LULC scenarios as a focal area of future research. Scenarios are used to assist in the understanding of possible future developments in complex systems that typically have high levels of scientific uncertainty. Scenarios generally require knowledge of history and current conditions, and specific understanding about how drivers of change have acted to influence the historical and current condition. We describe methods and results of downscaling LULC and associated narrative storylines from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). The downscaling methods leverage three primary sources of information: 1) comprehensive land-use histories developed through remote sensing and survey data, 2) modeled LULC outputs from global integrated assessment models (IAMs), and 3) expert knowledge of regional land change. First, national and ecoregional narrative storylines were derived from the global IPCC framework. Based on the characteristics of downscaled narrative storylines, experts used historical data and information on the rates and types of LULC change, in conjunction with coarse-scale IAM projections of land use, to produce future quantitative scenarios. An accounting model was developed to handle all aspects of scenario downscaling. Here we present the methods used to construct ecoregion-specific scenarios of LULC change consistent with the IPCC-SRES scenarios, as well as results at multiple geographic scales. The USGS LandCarbon assessment is implementing a scenario-based approach for projecting changes in LULC that may result in changes to ecosystem carbon flux and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Results described

  15. Anticipatory Water Management in Phoenix using Advanced Scenario Planning and Analyses: WaterSim 5

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sampson, D. A.; Quay, R.; White, D. D.; Gober, P.; Kirkwood, C.

    2013-12-01

    Complexity, uncertainty, and variability are inherent properties of linked social and natural processes; sustainable resource management must somehow consider all three. Typically, a decision support tool (using scenario analyses) is used to examine management alternatives under suspected trajectories in driver variables (i.e., climate forcing's, growth or economic projections, etc.). This traditional planning focuses on a small set of envisioned scenarios whose outputs are compared against one-another in order to evaluate their differing impacts on desired metrics. Human cognition typically limits this to three to five scenarios. However, complex and highly uncertain issues may require more, often much more, than five scenarios. In this case advanced scenario analysis provides quantitative or qualitative methods that can reveal patterns and associations among scenario metrics for a large ensemble of scenarios. From this analysis, then, a smaller set of heuristics that describe the complexity and uncertainty revealed provides a basis to guide planning in an anticipatory fashion. Our water policy and management model, termed WaterSim, permits advanced scenario planning and analysis for the Phoenix Metropolitan Area. In this contribution we examine the concepts of advanced scenario analysis on a large scale ensemble of scenarios using our work with WaterSim as a case study. For this case study we created a range of possible water futures by creating scenarios that encompasses differences in water supplies (our surrogates for climate change, drought, and inherent variability in riverine flows), population growth, and per capital water consumption. We used IPCC estimates of plausible, future, alterations in riverine runoff, locally produced and vetted estimates of population growth projections, and empirical trends in per capita water consumption for metropolitan cities. This ensemble consisted of ~ 30, 700 scenarios (~575 k observations). We compared and contrasted

  16. Environmental Influences on Mate Preferences as Assessed by a Scenario Manipulation Experiment

    PubMed Central

    Marzoli, Daniele; Moretto, Francesco; Monti, Aura; Tocci, Ornella; Roberts, S. Craig; Tommasi, Luca

    2013-01-01

    Many evolutionary psychology studies have addressed the topic of mate preferences, focusing particularly on gender and cultural differences. However, the extent to which situational and environmental variables might affect mate preferences has been comparatively neglected. We tested 288 participants in order to investigate the perceived relative importance of six traits of an ideal partner (wealth, dominance, intelligence, height, kindness, attractiveness) under four different hypothetical scenarios (status quo/nowadays, violence/post-nuclear, poverty/resource exhaustion, prosperity/global well-being). An equal number of participants (36 women, 36 men) was allotted to each scenario; each was asked to allocate 120 points across the six traits according to their perceived value. Overall, intelligence was the trait to which participants assigned most importance, followed by kindness and attractiveness, and then by wealth, dominance and height. Men appraised attractiveness as more valuable than women. Scenario strongly influenced the relative importance attributed to traits, the main finding being that wealth and dominance were more valued in the poverty and post-nuclear scenarios, respectively, compared to the other scenarios. Scenario manipulation generally had similar effects in both sexes, but women appeared particularly prone to trade off other traits for dominance in the violence scenario, and men particularly prone to trade off other traits for wealth in the poverty scenario. Our results are in line with other correlational studies of situational variables and mate preferences, and represent strong evidence of a causal relationship of environmental factors on specific mate preferences, corroborating the notion of an evolved plasticity to current ecological conditions. A control experiment seems to suggest that our scenarios can be considered as realistic descriptions of the intended ecological conditions. PMID:24069291

  17. Constellation Architecture Team-Lunar Scenario 12.0 Habitation Overview

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kennedy, Kriss J.; Toups, Larry D.; Rudisill, Marianne

    2010-01-01

    This paper will describe an overview of the Constellation Architecture Team Lunar Scenario 12.0 (LS-12) surface habitation approach and concept performed during the study definition. The Lunar Scenario 12 architecture study focused on two primary habitation approaches: a horizontally-oriented habitation module (LS-12.0) and a vertically-oriented habitation module (LS-12.1). This paper will provide an overview of the 12.0 lunar surface campaign, the associated outpost architecture, habitation functionality, concept description, system integration strategy, mass and power resource estimates. The Scenario 12 architecture resulted from combining three previous scenario attributes from Scenario 4 "Optimized Exploration", Scenario 5 "Fission Surface Power System" and Scenario 8 "Initial Extensive Mobility" into Scenario 12 along with an added emphasis on defining the excursion ConOps while the crew is away from the outpost location. This paper will describe an overview of the CxAT-Lunar Scenario 12.0 habitation concepts and their functionality. The Crew Operations area includes basic crew accommodations such as sleeping, eating, hygiene and stowage. The EVA Operations area includes additional EVA capability beyond the suitlock function such as suit maintenance, spares stowage, and suit stowage. The Logistics Operations area includes the enhanced accommodations for 180 days such as enhanced life support systems hardware, consumable stowage, spares stowage, interconnection to the other habitation elements, a common interface mechanism for future growth, and mating to a pressurized rover or Pressurized Logistics Module (PLM). The Mission & Science Operations area includes enhanced outpost autonomy such as an IVA glove box, life support, medical operations, and exercise equipment.

  18. Environmental influences on mate preferences as assessed by a scenario manipulation experiment.

    PubMed

    Marzoli, Daniele; Moretto, Francesco; Monti, Aura; Tocci, Ornella; Roberts, S Craig; Tommasi, Luca

    2013-01-01

    Many evolutionary psychology studies have addressed the topic of mate preferences, focusing particularly on gender and cultural differences. However, the extent to which situational and environmental variables might affect mate preferences has been comparatively neglected. We tested 288 participants in order to investigate the perceived relative importance of six traits of an ideal partner (wealth, dominance, intelligence, height, kindness, attractiveness) under four different hypothetical scenarios (status quo/nowadays, violence/post-nuclear, poverty/resource exhaustion, prosperity/global well-being). An equal number of participants (36 women, 36 men) was allotted to each scenario; each was asked to allocate 120 points across the six traits according to their perceived value. Overall, intelligence was the trait to which participants assigned most importance, followed by kindness and attractiveness, and then by wealth, dominance and height. Men appraised attractiveness as more valuable than women. Scenario strongly influenced the relative importance attributed to traits, the main finding being that wealth and dominance were more valued in the poverty and post-nuclear scenarios, respectively, compared to the other scenarios. Scenario manipulation generally had similar effects in both sexes, but women appeared particularly prone to trade off other traits for dominance in the violence scenario, and men particularly prone to trade off other traits for wealth in the poverty scenario. Our results are in line with other correlational studies of situational variables and mate preferences, and represent strong evidence of a causal relationship of environmental factors on specific mate preferences, corroborating the notion of an evolved plasticity to current ecological conditions. A control experiment seems to suggest that our scenarios can be considered as realistic descriptions of the intended ecological conditions.

  19. Getting to necessary and sufficient-developing accident scenarios for risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Mahn, J.A.

    1996-05-01

    This paper presents a simple, systematic approach for developing accident scenarios using generic accident types. Result is a necessary and sufficient set of accident scenarios that can be used to establish the safety envelope for a facility or operation. Us of this approach along with the methodology of SAND95-0320 will yield more consistent accident analyses between facilities and provide a sound basis for allocating limited risk reduction resources.

  20. Comparison of Sigma-Point and Extended Kalman Filters on a Realistic Orbit Determination Scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gaebler, John; Hur-Diaz. Sun; Carpenter, Russell

    2010-01-01

    Sigma-point filters have received a lot of attention in recent years as a better alternative to extended Kalman filters for highly nonlinear problems. In this paper, we compare the performance of the additive divided difference sigma-point filter to the extended Kalman filter when applied to orbit determination of a realistic operational scenario based on the Interstellar Boundary Explorer mission. For the scenario studied, both filters provided equivalent results. The performance of each is discussed in detail.

  1. Overview of the Biomass Scenario Model

    SciTech Connect

    Peterson, Steve

    2015-09-01

    This report describes the structure of the October 2012 version of the Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) in considerable detail, oriented towards readers with a background or interest in the underlying modeling structures. Readers seeking a less-detailed summary of the BSM may refer to Peterson (2013). BSM aims to provide a framework for exploring the potential contribution of biofuel technologies to the transportation energy supply for the United States over the next several decades. The model has evolved significantly from the prototype developed as part of the Role of Biomass in America" tm s Energy Future (RBAEF) project. BSM represents the supply chain surrounding conversion pathways for multiple fuel products, including ethanol, butanol, and infrastructure-compatible biofuels such as diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline.

  2. Future Scenarios for Mobile Science Learning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burden, Kevin; Kearney, Matthew

    2016-04-01

    This paper adopts scenario planning as a methodological approach and tool to help science educators reconceptualise their use of mobile technologies across various different futures. These `futures' are set out neither as predictions nor prognoses but rather as stimuli to encourage greater discussion and reflection around the use of mobile technologies in science education. Informed by the literature and our empirical data, we consider four alternative futures for science education in a mobile world, with a particular focus on networked collaboration and student agency. We conclude that `seamless learning', whereby students are empowered to use their mobile technologies to negotiate across physical and virtual boundaries (e.g. between school and out-of-school activities), may be the most significant factor in encouraging educators to rethink their existing pedagogical patterns, thereby realizing some of the promises of contextualised participatory science learning.

  3. Present and Future Energy Scenario in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, S.; Bhattacharyya, B.; Gupta, V. K.

    2014-09-01

    India's energy sector is one of the most critical components of an infrastructure that affects India's economic growth and therefore is also one of the largest industries in India. India has the 5th largest electricity generating capacity and is the 6th largest energy consumer amounting for around 3.4 % of global energy consumption. India's energy demand has grown at 3.6 % pa over the past 30 years. The consumption of the energy is directly proportional to the progress of manpower with ever growing population, improvement in the living standard of the humanity and industrialization of the developing countries. Very recently smart grid technology can attribute important role in energy scenario. Smart grid refers to electric power system that enhances grid reliability and efficiency by automatically responding to system disturbances. This paper discusses the new communication infrastructure and scheme designed to integrate data.

  4. Stochastic Optimization for Nuclear Facility Deployment Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hays, Ross Daniel

    Single-use, low-enriched uranium oxide fuel, consumed through several cycles in a light-water reactor (LWR) before being disposed, has become the dominant source of commercial-scale nuclear electric generation in the United States and throughout the world. However, it is not without its drawbacks and is not the only potential nuclear fuel cycle available. Numerous alternative fuel cycles have been proposed at various times which, through the use of different reactor and recycling technologies, offer to counteract many of the perceived shortcomings with regards to waste management, resource utilization, and proliferation resistance. However, due to the varying maturity levels of these technologies, the complicated material flow feedback interactions their use would require, and the large capital investments in the current technology, one should not deploy these advanced designs without first investigating the potential costs and benefits of so doing. As the interactions among these systems can be complicated, and the ways in which they may be deployed are many, the application of automated numerical optimization to the simulation of the fuel cycle could potentially be of great benefit to researchers and interested policy planners. To investigate the potential of these methods, a computational program has been developed that applies a parallel, multi-objective simulated annealing algorithm to a computational optimization problem defined by a library of relevant objective functions applied to the Ver ifiable Fuel Cycle Simulati on Model (VISION, developed at the Idaho National Laboratory). The VISION model, when given a specified fuel cycle deployment scenario, computes the numbers and types of, and construction, operation, and utilization schedules for, the nuclear facilities required to meet a predetermined electric power demand function. Additionally, it calculates the location and composition of the nuclear fuels within the fuel cycle, from initial mining through

  5. Detecting genuine multipartite entanglement in steering scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jebaratnam, C.

    2016-05-01

    Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen (EPR) steering is a form of quantum nonlocality which is intermediate between entanglement and Bell nonlocality. EPR steering is a resource for quantum key distribution that is device independent on only one side in that it certifies bipartite entanglement when one party's device is not characterized while the other party's device is fully characterized. In this work, we introduce two types of genuine tripartite EPR steering, and derive two steering inequalities to detect them. In a semi-device-independent scenario where only the dimensions of two parties are assumed, the correlations which violate one of these inequalities also certify genuine tripartite entanglement. It is known that Alice can demonstrate bipartite EPR steering to Bob if and only if her measurement settings are incompatible. We demonstrate that quantum correlations can also detect tripartite EPR steering from Alice to Bob and Charlie, even if Charlie's measurement settings are compatible.

  6. A COLLISIONLESS SCENARIO FOR URANUS TILTING

    SciTech Connect

    Boue, Gwenael; Laskar, Jacques

    2010-03-20

    The origin of the high inclination of Uranus' spin-axis (Uranus' obliquity) is one of the great unanswered questions about the solar system. Giant planets are believed to form with nearly zero obliquity, and it has been shown that the present behavior of Uranus' spin is essentially stable. Several attempts were made in order to solve this problem. Here we report numerical simulations showing that Uranus' axis can be tilted during the planetary migration, without the need of a giant impact, provided that the planet had an additional satellite and a temporary large inclination. This might have happened during the giant planet instability phase described in the Nice model. In our scenario, the satellite is ejected after the tilt by a close encounter at the end of the migration. This model can both explain Uranus' large obliquity and bring new constraints on the planet orbital evolution.

  7. Compounding of uncertainty in climate change scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Pielke, R.A.; Zeng, X.

    1994-12-31

    The development of realistic climate change scenarios requires consideration of the range of potential feedbacks between the atmosphere, the oceans, and the land surface. Such an understanding is essential in order to adequately describe natural climate variability and man-made climate change, as well as the uncertainty in their ability to represent the physical and biogeochemical process in the modeling of climate. There are serious misconceptions, however, regarding the use of models to estimate climate change. First, general circulation models (GCMs) are not global climate models, and although ocean feedbacks have begun to be included in GCMs, current state-of-the-art GCMs are incomplete tools to be used to represent the entire spectrum of potential climate change. The GCMs provide only a subset of possible future climate conditions and represent sensitivity experiments, not prebiogeophysical feedbacks that are sufficiently nonlinear.

  8. Lunar transportation scenarios utilising the Space Elevator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Engel, Kilian A.

    2005-07-01

    The Space Elevator (SE) concept has begun to receive an increasing amount of attention within the space community over the past couple of years and is no longer widely dismissed as pure science fiction. In light of the renewed interest in a, possibly sustained, human presence on the Moon and the fact that transportation and logistics form the bottleneck of many conceivable lunar missions, it is interesting to investigate what role the SE could eventually play in implementing an efficient Earth to Moon transportation system. The elevator allows vehicles to ascend from Earth and be injected into a trans-lunar trajectory without the use of chemical thrusters, thus eliminating gravity loss, aerodynamic loss and the need of high thrust multistage launch systems. Such a system therefore promises substantial savings of propellant and structural mass and could greatly increase the efficiency of Earth to Moon transportation. This paper analyzes different elevator-based trans-lunar transportation scenarios and characterizes them in terms of a number of benchmark figures. The transportation scenarios include direct elevator-launched trans-lunar trajectories, elevator-launched trajectories via L1 and L2, as well as launch from an Earth-based elevator and subsequent rendezvous with lunar elevators placed either on the near or on the far side of the Moon. The benchmark figures by which the different transfer options are characterized and evaluated include release radius (RR), required Δv, transfer times as well as other factors such as accessibility of different lunar latitudes, frequency of launch opportunities and mission complexity. The performances of the different lunar transfer options are compared with each other as well as with the performance of conventional mission concepts, represented by Apollo.

  9. Lunar transportation scenarios utilising the Space Elevator.

    PubMed

    Engel, Kilian A

    2005-01-01

    The Space Elevator (SE) concept has begun to receive an increasing amount of attention within the space community over the past couple of years and is no longer widely dismissed as pure science fiction. In light of the renewed interest in a, possibly sustained, human presence on the Moon and the fact that transportation and logistics form the bottleneck of many conceivable lunar missions, it is interesting to investigate what role the SE could eventually play in implementing an efficient Earth to Moon transportation system. The elevator allows vehicles to ascend from Earth and be injected into a trans-lunar trajectory without the use of chemical thrusters, thus eliminating gravity loss, aerodynamic loss and the need of high thrust multistage launch systems. Such a system therefore promises substantial savings of propellant and structural mass and could greatly increase the efficiency of Earth to Moon transportation. This paper analyzes different elevator-based trans-lunar transportation scenarios and characterizes them in terms of a number of benchmark figures. The transportation scenarios include direct elevator-launched trans-lunar trajectories, elevator launched trajectories via L1 and L2, as well as launch from an Earth-based elevator and subsequent rendezvous with lunar elevators placed either on the near or on the far side of the Moon. The benchmark figures by which the different transfer options are characterized and evaluated include release radius (RR), required delta v, transfer times as well as other factors such as accessibility of different lunar latitudes, frequency of launch opportunities and mission complexity. The performances of the different lunar transfer options are compared with each other as well as with the performance of conventional mission concepts, represented by Apollo.

  10. Evaluating the environmental impacts of a land use scenario for bioenergy production in the Midwest U.S

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, J.; Twine, T. E.; Hill, J.

    2012-12-01

    A variety of land use and land cover (LULC) scenarios are being developed in the Midwest United States (U.S.) to meet bioenergy production goals. Differences in these scenarios (e.g., maize vs. perennial grass and areal distribution) could result in different impacts to water resources and carbon emissions. Thus it is important to comprehensively evaluate the potential effects of LULC scenarios on the environment. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has developed one land cover scenario in the Midwest U.S. to meet the projected bioenergy production demands in 2020. In this study we use Agro-IBIS, a global dynamic ecosystem model, to evaluate how this scenario might affect future water and carbon budgets. The model represents a wide range of processes including leaf and canopy physiology, plant phenology, vegetation dynamics, and nutrient cycling in both natural and managed ecosystems. The model is capable of simulating crop growth and behavior by taking into account management such as irrigation and fertilizer application. By comparing the simulation results from the current land cover and future land cover scenario, we evaluate the potential impact on regional hydrology, carbon sequestration, and biomass production as a result of this particular scenario's land cover change. Future work will evaluate additional scenarios and could contribute to improvements in scenario development.

  11. Carbon footprint of four different wastewater treatment scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diafarou, Moumouni; Mariska, Ronteltap, ,, Dr.; Damir, Brdjanovic, ,, Prof.

    2014-05-01

    Since the era of industrialization, concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) have tremendously increased in the atmosphere, as a result of the extensive use of fossil fuels, deforestation, improper waste management, transport, and other economic activities (Boer, 2008).This has led to a great accumulation of greenhouse gases, forming a blanket around the Earth which contributes in the so-called "Global Warming". Over the last decades, wastewater treatment has developed strongly and has become a very important asset in mitigating the impact of domestic and industrial effluents on the environment. There are many different forms of wastewater treatment, and one of the most effective treatment technology in terms COD, N and P removal, activated sludge is often criticized for its high energy use. Some other treatment concepts have a more "green" image, but it is not clear whether this image is justified based on their greenhouse gas emission. This study focuses on the estimation of GHG emissions of four different wastewater treatment configurations, both conventional and innovative systems namely: (1) Harnaschpolder, (2) Sneek, (3) EIER-Ouaga and (4) Siddhipur. This analysis is based on COD mass balance, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2006 guidelines for estimating CO2 and CH4, and literature review. Furthermore, the energy requirements for each of the systems were estimated based on energy survey. The study showed that an estimated daily average of 87 g of CO2 equivalent, ranging between 38 to 192 g, was derived to be the per capita CO2 emission for the four different wastewater treatment scenarios. Despite the fact that no electrical energy is used in the treatment process, the GHG emission from EIER Ouaga anaerobic pond systems is found to be the highest compared to the three other scenarios analysed. It was estimated 80% higher than the most favourable scenario (Sneek). Moreover, the results indicate that the GHGs emitted from these WWTPs are

  12. Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines (Final Report)

    EPA Science Inventory

    This report describes the scenarios and models used to generate national-scale housing density scenarios for the conterminous US to the year 2100 as part of the Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project. The report was prepared by the Global Change Research Progra...

  13. Transport simulation of ITER scenarios with driven burn

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Becker, G.

    2000-08-01

    Transport in the ignited reduced cost ITER devices IAM (Intermediate Aspect Ratio Machine) and LAM (Low Aspect Ratio Machine) is explored by self-consistent simulations using a special version of the 1.5 dimensional BALDUR predictive transport code and applying empirical transport coefficients. The main objective of the study is to determine the thermal energy confinement time τE,r required for operation at the design parameters. It is found that the τE,r value of the inductive IAM (with a helium fraction of 9%) is 3.3 s with argon seeding compared with τE,p = 3.0 s predicted by global scalings. For operation at τE,r = τE,p the value of Q = Pfus/Pb must be reduced from 10 to 6.1, where Pfus is the fusion power and Pb is the beam power. The necessary radiative loss from closed flux surfaces is reached in the argon scenario at high and low separatrix densities. The assumption of flat density profiles and high edge densities is supported by simulations using a new scaling law for the anomalous inward drift velocity. A study of the advanced tokamak scenario of IAM resulting in an estimate of the required energy confinement time is also carried out. Simulation of the inductive LAM argon scenario yields τE,r = 4.0 s compared with τE,p = 3.9 s predicted by global scalings. Here operation at τE,p demands a Q value of 8.7.

  14. Graph-Based Comparisons of Scenarios in Intelligence Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Chin, George; Kuchar, Olga A.; Whitney, Paul D.; Powers, Mary E.; Johnson, Katherine E.

    2004-10-13

    In the role of detecting and preventing strategic surprise, intelligence analysts rely heavily on history as they refer to past cases and events to find similarities and distinctions to a current situation or threat. Analysts’ ability to identify similar cases and events, however, is very limited because the intelligence data available for searching are largely disconnected and limited in context. As a result, analysts searching intelligence data often resort to searching by keyword or timestamp. To make better use of intelligence data, analysts should not only be able to construct hypotheses of a current situation or threat but also reconstruct the full context of past events such that those events may then be effectively compared to the current situation and hypotheses. In constructing the context of a situation, case, or hypothesis, analysts decipher patterns and relationships among many different kinds and sources of information. Analysts identify these patterns and relationships through different kinds of analyses. For instance, analysts may conduct link analysis to examine different kinds of relationships, geographical analysis to look at spatial positioning and grouping, timeline analysis to lay out chronological events, and visual analysis to identify clusters of similar information. What these different kinds of analyses provide are analytical frameworks or models for organizing intelligence data along key properties. Unfortunately, these higher-level analytical models are transient: they disappear when their associated analysis tools stop executing. Consequently, analysts cannot easily associate their analyses with their intelligence data in a way that facilitates the integration of different analyses into a larger picture or the comparison of analytical models to other cases. On the Scenario and Knowledge Framework for Analytical Modelling (SKFAM) project at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, we are researching and prototyping a framework that

  15. Discrepant Results in a 2-D Marble Collision

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kalajian, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Video analysis of 2-D collisions is an excellent way to investigate conservation of linear momentum. The often-desired experimental design goal is to minimize the momentum loss in order to demonstrate the conservation law. An air table with colliding pucks is an ideal medium for this experiment, but such equipment is beyond the budget of many…

  16. Future Water-Supply Scenarios, Cape May County, New Jersey, 2003-2050

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lacombe, Pierre J.; Carleton, Glen B.; Pope, Daryll A.; Rice, Donald E.

    2009-01-01

    Stewards of the water supply in New Jersey are interested in developing a plan to supply potable and non-potable water to residents and businesses of Cape May County until at least 2050. The ideal plan would meet projected demands and minimize adverse effects on currently used sources of potable, non-potable, and ecological water supplies. This report documents past and projected potable, non-potable, and ecological water-supply demands. Past and ongoing adverse effects to production and domestic wells caused by withdrawals include saltwater intrusion and water-level declines in the freshwater aquifers. Adverse effects on the ecological water supplies caused by groundwater withdrawals include premature drying of seasonal wetlands, delayed recovery of water levels in the water-table aquifer, and reduced streamflow. To predict the effects of future actions on the water supplies, three baseline and six future scenarios were created and simulated. Baseline Scenarios 1, 2, and 3 represent withdrawals using existing wells projected until 2050. Baseline Scenario 1 represents average 1998-2003 withdrawals, and Scenario 2 represents New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP) full allocation withdrawals. These withdrawals do not meet projected future water demands. Baseline Scenario 3 represents the estimated full build-out water demands. Results of simulations of the three baseline scenarios indicate that saltwater would intrude into the Cohansey aquifer as much as 7,100 feet (ft) to adversely affect production wells used by Lower Township and the Wildwoods, as well as some other near-shore domestic wells; water-level altitudes in the Atlantic City 800-foot sand would decline to -156 ft; base flow in streams would be depleted by 0 to 26 percent; and water levels in the water-table aquifer would decline as much as 0.7ft. [Specific water-level altitudes, land-surface altitudes, and present sea level when used in this report are referenced to the North American

  17. Use scenarios: mobile 3D television and video

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strohmeier, Dominik; Weitzel, Mandy; Jumisko-Pyykkö, Satu

    2009-02-01

    The focus of 3D television and video has been in technical development while hardly any attention has been paid on user expectations and needs of related applications. The object of the study is to examine user requirements for mobile 3D television and video in depth. We conducted two qualitative studies, focus groups and probe studies, to improve the understanding of user approach. Eight focus groups were carried out with altogether 46 participants focusing on use scenario development. The data-collection of the probe study was done over the period of 4 weeks in the field with nine participants to reveal intrinsic user needs and expectations. Both studies were conducted and analyzed independently so that they did not influence each other. The results of both studies provide novel aspects of users, system and content, and context of use. In the paper, we present personas as first archetype users of mobile 3D television and video. Putting these personas into contexts, we summarize the results of our studies and previous related work in the form of use scenarios to guide the user-centered development of 3D television and video.

  18. Effects of grid size and aggregation on regional scale landuse scenario calculations using SVAT schemes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bormann, H.

    2006-09-01

    This paper analyses the effect of spatial input data resolution on the simulated effects of regional scale landuse scenarios using the TOPLATS model. A data set of 25 m resolution of the central German Dill catchment (693 km2) and three different landuse scenarios are used for the investigation. Landuse scenarios in this study are field size scenarios, and depending on a specific target field size (0.5 ha, 1.5 ha and 5.0 ha) landuse is determined by optimising economic outcome of agricultural used areas and forest. After an aggregation of digital elevation model, soil map, current landuse and landuse scenarios to 50 m, 75 m, 100 m, 150 m, 200 m, 300 m, 500 m, 1 km and 2 km, water balances and water flow components for a 20 years time period are calculated for the entire Dill catchment as well as for 3 subcatchments without any recalibration. Additionally water balances based on the three landuse scenarios as well as changes between current conditions and scenarios are calculated. The study reveals that both model performance measures (for current landuse) as well as water balances (for current landuse and landuse scenarios) almost remain constant for most of the aggregation steps for all investigated catchments. Small deviations are detected at the resolution of 50 m to 500 m, while significant differences occur at the resolution of 1 km and 2 km which can be explained by changes in the statistics of the input data. Calculating the scenario effects based on increasing grid sizes yields similar results. However, the change effects react more sensitive to data aggregation than simple water balance calculations. Increasing deviations between simulations based on small grid sizes and simulations using grid sizes of 300 m and more are observed. Summarizing, this study indicates that an aggregation of input data for the calculation of regional water balances using TOPLATS type models does not lead to significant errors up to a resolution of 500 m. Focusing on scenario

  19. Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM) III: Scenario analysis

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Huisman, J.A.; Breuer, L.; Bormann, H.; Bronstert, A.; Croke, B.F.W.; Frede, H.-G.; Graff, T.; Hubrechts, L.; Jakeman, A.J.; Kite, G.; Lanini, J.; Leavesley, G.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Lindstrom, G.; Seibert, J.; Sivapalan, M.; Viney, N.R.; Willems, P.

    2009-01-01

    An ensemble of 10 hydrological models was applied to the same set of land use change scenarios. There was general agreement about the direction of changes in the mean annual discharge and 90% discharge percentile predicted by the ensemble members, although a considerable range in the magnitude of predictions for the scenarios and catchments under consideration was obvious. Differences in the magnitude of the increase were attributed to the different mean annual actual evapotranspiration rates for each land use type. The ensemble of model runs was further analyzed with deterministic and probabilistic ensemble methods. The deterministic ensemble method based on a trimmed mean resulted in a single somewhat more reliable scenario prediction. The probabilistic reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method allowed a quantification of the model structure uncertainty in the scenario predictions. It was concluded that the use of a model ensemble has greatly increased our confidence in the reliability of the model predictions. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd.

  20. Development of a Prototype Automation Simulation Scenario Generator for Air Traffic Management Software Simulations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Khambatta, Cyrus F.

    2007-01-01

    A technique for automated development of scenarios for use in the Multi-Center Traffic Management Advisor (McTMA) software simulations is described. The resulting software is designed and implemented to automate the generation of simulation scenarios with the intent of reducing the time it currently takes using an observational approach. The software program is effective in achieving this goal. The scenarios created for use in the McTMA simulations are based on data taken from data files from the McTMA system, and were manually edited before incorporation into the simulations to ensure accuracy. Despite the software s overall favorable performance, several key software issues are identified. Proposed solutions to these issues are discussed. Future enhancements to the scenario generator software may address the limitations identified in this paper.

  1. Ontology-based Software for Generating Scenarios for Characterizing Searches for Nuclear Materials

    SciTech Connect

    Ward, Richard C; Sorokine, Alexandre; Schlicher, Bob G; Wright, Michael C; Kruse, Kara L

    2011-01-01

    A software environment was created in which ontologies are used to significantly expand the number and variety of scenarios for special nuclear materials (SNM) detection based on a set of simple generalized initial descriptions. A framework was built that combined advanced reasoning from ontologies with geographical and other data sources to generate a much larger list of specific detailed descriptions from a simple initial set of user-input variables. This presentation shows how basing the scenario generation on a process of inferencing from multiple ontologies, including a new SNM Detection Ontology (DO) combined with data extraction from geodatabases, provided the desired significant variability of scenarios for testing search algorithms, including unique combinations of variables not previously expected. The various components of the software environment and the resulting scenarios generated will be discussed.

  2. High water-stressed population estimated by world water resources assessment including human activities under SRES scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kiguchi, M.; Shen, Y.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

    2009-04-01

    In an argument of the reduction and the adaptation for the climate change, the evaluation of the influence by the climate change is important. When we argue in adaptation plan from a damage scale and balance with the cost, it is particularly important. Parry et al (2001) evaluated the risks in shortage of water, malaria, food, the risk of the coast flood by temperature function and clarified the level of critical climate change. According to their evaluation, the population to be affected by the shortage of water suddenly increases in the range where temperature increases from 1.5 to 2.0 degree in 2080s. They showed how much we need to reduce emissions in order to draw-down significantly the number at risk. This evaluation of critical climate change threats and targets of water shortage did not include the water withdrawal divided by water availability. Shen et al (2008a) estimated the water withdrawal of projection of future world water resources according to socio-economic driving factors predicted for scenarios A1b, A2, B1, and B2 of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). However, these results were in function of not temperature but time. The assessment of the highly water-stressed population considered the socioeconomic development is necessary for a function of the temperature. Because of it is easy to understand to need to reduce emission. We present a multi-GCM analysis of the global and regional populations lived in highly water-stressed basin for a function of the temperature using the socioeconomic data and the outputs of GCMs. In scenario A2, the population increases gradually with warming. On the other hand, the future projection population in scenario A1b and B1 increase gradually until the temperature anomaly exceeds around from +1 to +1.5 degree. After that the population is almost constant. From Shen et al (2008b), we evaluated the HWSP and its ratio in the world with temperature function for scenarios A1B, A2, and B1 by the index of W

  3. Downscaling transient climate change scenarios for water resource management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blenkinsop, S.; Burton, A.; Fowler, H. J.; Harpham, C.; Goderniaux, P.

    2009-04-01

    future change for the end of the 21st century. These CFs are then scaled to produce monthly CFs for each year throughout the transient period up to 2085, and are used to generate perturbed transient climate series by the stochastic rainfall model and weather generator. Results of the validation process are summarised for both aquifers for the current climate and for the perturbed transient scenarios for a range of variables including rainfall, temperature and potential evapotranspiration indicating that this framework is able to simulate the main features of the current climate and also of the projected future changes indicated by RCMs. Furthermore, to generate its wide applicability a selection of simple climate indices are examined and for example, demonstrate that climate models project a lengthening of the growing season in this region. By generating a large multi-model ensemble the range of uncertainty in future projections is demonstrated, and by using the transient scenarios to determine the projected timescale of pre-defined impacts it is also shown that this method provides more relevant and informative tools for climate change impacts assessments for hydrological systems.

  4. Towards realistic Holocene land cover scenarios: integration of archaeological, palynological and geomorphological records and comparison to global land cover scenarios.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Brue, Hanne; Verstraeten, Gert; Broothaerts, Nils; Notebaert, Bastiaan

    2016-04-01

    six alluvial sites. This comparison drastically reduces the number of realistic land cover scenarios for various cultural periods. REVEALS based land cover histories provide more accurate estimates of Holocene sediment fluxes compared to global land cover scenarios (KK10 and HYDE 3.1). Both global land cover scenarios produce erroneous results when applied at their original coarse scale resolution. However, spatially allocating KK10 land cover data to a finer spatial resolution increases its performance, whereas this is not the case for HYDE 3.1. Results suggest that KK10 also offers a more realistic history of human impact than HYDE 3.1 although it overestimates human impact in the Belgian Loess Belt prior to the Roman Age, whereas it underestimates human impact from the Medieval Period onwards.

  5. Bifurcation scenarios for a 3D torus and torus-doubling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Inaba, Naohikio; Sekikawa, Munehisa; Shinotsuka, Yoshimasa; Kamiyama, Kyohei; Fujimoto, Ken'ichi; Yoshinaga, Tetsuya; Endo, Tetsuro

    2014-02-01

    Bifurcation transitions between a 1D invariant closed curve (ICC), corresponding to a 2D torus in vector fields, and a 2D invariant torus (IT), corresponding to a 3D torus in vector fields, have been the subjects of intensive research in recent years. An existing hypothesis involves the bifurcation boundary between a region generating an ICC and a region generating an IT. It asserts that an IT would be generated from a stable fixed point as a consequence of two Hopf (or two Neimark-Sacker) bifurcations. We assume that this hypothesis may puzzle many researchers because it is difficult to assess its validity, although it seems to be a reasonable bifurcation scenario at first glance. To verify this hypothesis, we conduct a detailed Lyapunov analysis for a coupled delayed logistic map that can generate an IT, and indicate that this hypothesis does not hold according to numerical results. Furthermore, we show that a saddle-node bifurcation of unstable periodic points does not coincide with the bifurcation boundary between an ICC and an IT. In addition, the bifurcation boundaries of torus doubling do not coincide with a period-doubling bifurcation of unstable periodic points. To conclude, torus bifurcations have no relation with the bifurcations of unstable periodic points. Additionally, we exactly derive a quasi-periodic Hopf bifurcation boundary introducing a double Poincaré map.

  6. Effects of future climate and land use scenarios on riverine source water quality.

    PubMed

    Delpla, Ianis; Rodriguez, Manuel J

    2014-09-15

    Surface water quality is particularly sensitive to land use practices and climatic events that affect its catchment. The relative influence of a set of watershed characteristics (climate, land use, morphology and pedology) and climatic variables on two key water quality parameters (turbidity and fecal coliforms (FC)) was examined in 24 eastern Canadian catchments at various spatial scales (1 km, 5 km, 10 km and the entire catchment). A regression analysis revealed that the entire catchment was a better predictor of water quality. Based on this information, linear mixed effect models for predicting turbidity and FC levels were developed. A set of land use and climate scenarios was considered and applied within the water quality models. Four land use scenarios (no change, same rate of variation, optimistic and pessimistic) and three climate change scenarios (B1, A1B and A2) were tested and variations for the near future (2025) were assessed and compared to the reference period (2000). Climate change impacts on water quality remained low annually for this time horizon (turbidity: +1.5%, FC: +1.6%, A2 scenario). On the other hand, the influence of land use changes appeared to predominate. Significant benefits for both parameters could be expected following the optimistic scenario (turbidity: -16.4%, FC: -6.3%; p < 0.05). However, pessimistic land use scenario led to significant increases on an annual basis (turbidity: +11.6%, FC: +15.2%; p < 0.05). Additional simulations conducted for the late 21st century (2090) revealed that climate change impacts could become equivalent to those modeled for land use for this horizon.

  7. Extreme climate event trends: The data mining and evaluation of the A1FI scenario for 2000-2100

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Erickson, D. J.; Ganguly, A.; Steinhaeuser, K.; Branstetter, M.; Oglesby, R.; Hoffman, F.; Buja, L.

    2008-12-01

    We will discuss the implications and resulting alterations of the hydrologic cycle as Earth climate evolves from 2000-2100. Climate simulations based on the assumptions implicit in the A1F1 scenario for the period 2000- 2100 using CCSM3 are analyzed. In particular, we will assess the changes in the surface latent and sensible heat energy budget, the Indian regional water budgets including trends in the timing and duration of the Indian monsoon and the resulting impacts on mean river flow and hydroelectric power generation potential. These analyses will also be examined within the context of heat index, droughts, floods and related estimates of societal robustness and resiliency. We will interpret these new A1F1 results within the context of the previous climate simulations based on the SRES A2 and B1 scenarios forced with land cover and atmospheric CO2. Analyses of historical records in the context of the Indian Monsoon Rainfall (IMR) have suggested an evolving relation of IMR with natural climate variability caused by El Nino events. We will report on the combined effects of natural climate variability and global warming on IMR and assess the trend of extreme rain and temperature events in a warming environment.

  8. Extreme Climate Event Trends: The Data Mining and Evaluation of the A1FI Scenario for 2000???2100

    SciTech Connect

    Erickson III, David J; Ganguly, Auroop R; Steinhaeuser, Karsten J K; Branstetter, Marcia L; Oglesby, Robert; Hoffman, Forrest M; Buja, Lawrence

    2008-01-01

    The authors discuss the implications and resulting alterations of the hydrologic cycle as Earth climate evolves from 2000-2100. Climate simulations based on the assumptions implicit in the A1F1 scenario for the period 2000-2100 using CCSM3 are analyzed. In particular, we will assess the changes in the surface latent and sensible heat energy budget, the Indian regional water budgets including trends in the timing and duration of the Indian monsoon and the resulting impacts on mean river flow and hydroelectric power generation potential. These analyses will also be examined within the context of heat index, droughts, floods and related estimates of societal robustness and resiliency. We will interpret these new A1F1 results within the context of the previous climate simulations based on the SRES A2 and B1 scenarios forced with land cover and atmospheric CO2. Analyses of historical records in the context of the Indian Monsoon Rainfall (IMR) have suggested an evolving relation of IMR with natural climate variability caused by El Nino events. We will report on the combined effects of natural climate variability and global warming on IMR and assess the trend of extreme rain and temperature events in a warming environment.

  9. Regional ocean climate change scenarios for the Mediterranean Sea: assessing the uncertainties along the 21st century.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Somot, S.; Sevault, F.; Déqué, M.; Herrmann, M.; Dubois, C.; Aznar, R.; Padorno, E.; Alvarez-Fanjul, E.; Jorda, G.; Marcos, M.; Gomis, D.

    2012-04-01

    consistent scenario simulations previously run with low resolution coupled GCMs (near-Atlantic water characteristics, SST for the relaxation) or high resolution RCMs (fluxes, river, Black Sea). The 1961-2100 temporal evolution of the air-sea fluxes, the freshwater inputs, the Gibraltar strait transports, the surface water characteristics, the deep-water formation process, the Mediterranean thermohaline circulation, the heat and salt content and the sea level are analyzed. In addition, the 7-simulation ensemble allows to study the impact of the scenario (B1, A2, A1B), of the regional atmosphere forcing, of the rivers and of the near-Atlantic characteristics. One of the main goal of this study is to assess the robustness of previous results obtained with only one set of regional models and one scenario (Thorpe and Bigg 2000, Somot et al. 2006, Tsimplis et al. 2008).

  10. Scenario generation for stochastic optimization problems via the sparse grid method

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, Michael; Mehrotra, Sanjay; Papp, David

    2015-04-19

    We study the use of sparse grids in the scenario generation (or discretization) problem in stochastic programming problems where the uncertainty is modeled using a continuous multivariate distribution. We show that, under a regularity assumption on the random function involved, the sequence of optimal objective function values of the sparse grid approximations converges to the true optimal objective function values as the number of scenarios increases. The rate of convergence is also established. We treat separately the special case when the underlying distribution is an affine transform of a product of univariate distributions, and show how the sparse grid method can be adapted to the distribution by the use of quadrature formulas tailored to the distribution. We numerically compare the performance of the sparse grid method using different quadrature rules with classic quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) methods, optimal rank-one lattice rules, and Monte Carlo (MC) scenario generation, using a series of utility maximization problems with up to 160 random variables. The results show that the sparse grid method is very efficient, especially if the integrand is sufficiently smooth. In such problems the sparse grid scenario generation method is found to need several orders of magnitude fewer scenarios than MC and QMC scenario generation to achieve the same accuracy. As a result, it is indicated that the method scales well with the dimension of the distribution--especially when the underlying distribution is an affine transform of a product of univariate distributions, in which case the method appears scalable to thousands of random variables.

  11. Scenario-based approach to risk analysis in support of cyber security

    SciTech Connect

    Gertman, D. I.; Folkers, R.; Roberts, J.

    2006-07-01

    The US infrastructure is continually challenged by hostile nation states and others who would do us harm. Cyber vulnerabilities and weaknesses are potential targets and are the result of years of construction and technological improvement in a world less concerned with security than is currently the case. As a result, cyber attack presents a class of challenges for which we are just beginning to prepare. What has been done in the nuclear, chemical and energy sectors as a means of anticipating and preparing for randomly occurring accidents and off-normal events is to develop scenarios as a means by which to prioritize and quantify risk and to take action. However, the number of scenarios risk analysts can develop is almost limitless. How do we ascertain which scenario has the greatest merit? One of the more important contributions of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) has been to quantify the initiating event probability associated with various classes of accidents; and to quantify the occurrence of various conditions, i.e., end-states, as a function of these important accident sequences. Typically, various classes of conditions are represented by scenarios and are quantified in terms of cut sets and binned into end states. For example, the nuclear industry has a well-defined set of initiating events that are studied in assessing risk. The maturation of risk analysis for cyber security from accounting for barriers or looking at conditions statically to one of ascertaining the probability associated with certain events is, in part, dependent upon the adoption of a scenario-based approach. For example, scenarios take into account threats to personnel and public safety; economic damage, and compromises to major operational and safety functions. Scenarios reflect system, equipment, and component configurations as well as key human-system interactions related to event detection, diagnosis, mitigation and restoration of systems. As part of a cyber attack directed toward

  12. Scenarios of long-term river runoff changes within Russian large river basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Georgiadi, A. G.; Koronkevich, N. I.; Milyukova, I. P.; Kislov, A. V.; Barabanova, E. A.

    2010-12-01

    The approach for long-term scenario projection of river runoff changes for Russian large river basins in XXI century includes method for scenario estimations for range of probable climatic changes, based on generalization of results of the calculations executed on ensemble of global climatic models and physical-statistical downscaling of their results are developed for mountain regions; hydrological model; method of alternative scenario estimations for water management complex transformation and GIS technologies. The suggested methodology allows to develop long-term scenario projection for: (1) changes of river runoff in large river basins as a result of climate changes and (2) transformations of the water management complex caused by social-economic changes, occurring in the country and their influence on river runoff. As one of the bases of methodology is used model of monthly water balance of RAS Institute of Geography (Georgiadi, Milyukova, 2000, 2002, 2006, 2009). As the climatic scenario the range of probable climatic changes which is estimated by results of calculations for deviations of climatic elements from their recent values which have been carried out on ensemble of global climatic models based on the two most contrasting scenario globally averaged air temperature changes is used. As ensemble of climatic scenarios results of the calculations executed on 10 global climatic models, included in the program of last experiment 20C3M-20th Century Climate in Coupled Models (Meehl et al., 2007), is used. The method for long-term scenario projection for transformation of water management complex characteristics and water consumption was developed. The method includes several blocks (Koronkevich, 1990, Koronkevich et al., 2009): growth of the population and development of an economy; different ways of use and protection of waters, in view of different technologies of prevention and decreasing of pollution of water resources. Development of scenarios assumes pre

  13. Future Scenarios for Fission Based Reactors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    David, S.

    2005-04-01

    The coming century will see the exhaustion of standard fossil fuels, coal, gas and oil, which today represent 75% of the world energy production. Moreover, their use will have caused large-scale emission of greenhouse gases (GEG), and induced global climate change. This problem is exacerbated by a growing world energy demand. In this context, nuclear power is the only GEG-free energy source available today capable of responding significantly to this demand. Some scenarios consider a nuclear energy production of around 5 Gtoe in 2050, wich would represent a 20% share of the world energy supply. Present reactors generate energy from the fission of U-235 and require around 200 tons of natural Uranium to produce 1GWe.y of energy, equivalent to the fission of one ton of fissile material. In a scenario of a significant increase in nuclear energy generation, these standard reactors will consume the whole of the world's estimated Uranium reserves in a few decades. However, natural Uranium or Thorium ore, wich are not themselves fissile, can produce a fissile material after a neutron capture ( 239Pu and 233U respectively). In a breeder reactor, the mass of fissile material remains constant, and the fertile ore is the only material to be consumed. In this case, only 1 ton of natural ore is needed to produce 1GWe.y. Thus, the breeding concept allows optimal use of fertile ore and development of sustainable nuclear energy production for several thousand years into the future. Different sustainable nuclear reactor concepts are studied in the international forum "generation IV". Different types of coolant (Na, Pb and He) are studied for fast breeder reactors based on the Uranium cycle. The thermal Thorium cycle requires the use of a liquid fuel, which can be reprocessed online in order to extract the neutron poisons. This paper presents these different sustainable reactors, based on the Uranium or Thorium fuel cycles and will compare the different options in term of fissile

  14. Regional climate change scenarios applied to viticultural zoning in Mendoza, Argentina.

    PubMed

    Cabré, María Fernanda; Quénol, Hervé; Nuñez, Mario

    2016-09-01

    Due to the importance of the winemaking sector in Mendoza, Argentina, the assessment of future scenarios for viticulture is of foremost relevance. In this context, it is important to understand how temperature increase and precipitation changes will impact on grapes, because of changes in grapevine phenology and suitability wine-growing regions must be understood as an indicator of climate change. The general objective is to classify the suitable areas of viticulture in Argentina for the current and future climate using the MM5 regional climate change simulations. The spatial distribution of annual mean temperature, annual rainfall, and some bioclimatic indices has been analyzed for the present (1970-1989) and future (2080-2099) climate under SRES A2 emission scenario. In general, according to projected average growing season temperature and Winkler index classification, the regional model estimates (i) a reduction of cool areas, (ii) a westward and southward displacement of intermediate and warm suitability areas, and (iii) the arise of new suitability regions (hot and very hot areas) over Argentina. In addition, an increase of annual accumulated precipitation is projected over the center-west of Argentina. Similar pattern of change is modeled for growing season, but with lower intensity. Furthermore, the evaluation of projected seasonal precipitation shows a little precipitation increase over Cuyo and center of Argentina in summer and a little precipitation decrease over Cuyo and northern Patagonia in winter. Results show that Argentina has a great potential for expansion into new suitable vineyard areas by the end of twenty-first century, particularly due to projected displacement to higher latitudes for most present suitability winegrowing regions. Even though main conclusions are based on one global-regional model downscaling, this approach provides valuable information for implementing proper and diverse adaptation measures in the Argentinean viticultural

  15. Regional climate change scenarios applied to viticultural zoning in Mendoza, Argentina

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cabré, María Fernanda; Quénol, Hervé; Nuñez, Mario

    2016-09-01

    Due to the importance of the winemaking sector in Mendoza, Argentina, the assessment of future scenarios for viticulture is of foremost relevance. In this context, it is important to understand how temperature increase and precipitation changes will impact on grapes, because of changes in grapevine phenology and suitability wine-growing regions must be understood as an indicator of climate change. The general objective is to classify the suitable areas of viticulture in Argentina for the current and future climate using the MM5 regional climate change simulations. The spatial distribution of annual mean temperature, annual rainfall, and some bioclimatic indices has been analyzed for the present (1970-1989) and future (2080-2099) climate under SRES A2 emission scenario. In general, according to projected average growing season temperature and Winkler index classification, the regional model estimates (i) a reduction of cool areas, (ii) a westward and southward displacement of intermediate and warm suitability areas, and (iii) the arise of new suitability regions (hot and very hot areas) over Argentina. In addition, an increase of annual accumulated precipitation is projected over the center-west of Argentina. Similar pattern of change is modeled for growing season, but with lower intensity. Furthermore, the evaluation of projected seasonal precipitation shows a little precipitation increase over Cuyo and center of Argentina in summer and a little precipitation decrease over Cuyo and northern Patagonia in winter. Results show that Argentina has a great potential for expansion into new suitable vineyard areas by the end of twenty-first century, particularly due to projected displacement to higher latitudes for most present suitability winegrowing regions. Even though main conclusions are based on one global-regional model downscaling, this approach provides valuable information for implementing proper and diverse adaptation measures in the Argentinean viticultural

  16. Regional climate change scenarios applied to viticultural zoning in Mendoza, Argentina

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cabré, María Fernanda; Quénol, Hervé; Nuñez, Mario

    2016-01-01

    Due to the importance of the winemaking sector in Mendoza, Argentina, the assessment of future scenarios for viticulture is of foremost relevance. In this context, it is important to understand how temperature increase and precipitation changes will impact on grapes, because of changes in grapevine phenology and suitability wine-growing regions must be understood as an indicator of climate change. The general objective is to classify the suitable areas of viticulture in Argentina for the current and future climate using the MM5 regional climate change simulations. The spatial distribution of annual mean temperature, annual rainfall, and some bioclimatic indices has been analyzed for the present (1970-1989) and future (2080-2099) climate under SRES A2 emission scenario. In general, according to projected average growing season temperature and Winkler index classification, the regional model estimates (i) a reduction of cool areas, (ii) a westward and southward displacement of intermediate and warm suitability areas, and (iii) the arise of new suitability regions (hot and very hot areas) over Argentina. In addition, an increase of annual accumulated precipitation is projected over the center-west of Argentina. Similar pattern of change is modeled for growing season, but with lower intensity. Furthermore, the evaluation of projected seasonal precipitation shows a little precipitation increase over Cuyo and center of Argentina in summer and a little precipitation decrease over Cuyo and northern Patagonia in winter. Results show that Argentina has a great potential for expansion into new suitable vineyard areas by the end of twenty-first century, particularly due to projected displacement to higher latitudes for most present suitability winegrowing regions. Even though main conclusions are based on one global-regional model downscaling, this approach provides valuable information for implementing proper and diverse adaptation measures in the Argentinean viticultural

  17. Statistical downscaling and future scenario generation of temperatures for Pakistan Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kazmi, Dildar Hussain; Li, Jianping; Rasul, Ghulam; Tong, Jiang; Ali, Gohar; Cheema, Sohail Babar; Liu, Luliu; Gemmer, Marco; Fischer, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    Finer climate change information on spatial scale is required for impact studies than that presently provided by global or regional climate models. It is especially true for regions like South Asia with complex topography, coastal or island locations, and the areas of highly heterogeneous land-cover. To deal with the situation, an inexpensive method (statistical downscaling) has been adopted. Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) employed for downscaling of daily minimum and maximum temperature data of 44 national stations for base time (1961-1990) and then the future scenarios generated up to 2099. Observed as well as Predictors (product of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) data were calibrated and tested on individual/multiple basis through linear regression. Future scenario was generated based on HadCM3 daily data for A2 and B2 story lines. The downscaled data has been tested, and it has shown a relatively strong relationship with the observed in comparison to ECHAM5 data. Generally, the southern half of the country is considered vulnerable in terms of increasing temperatures, but the results of this study projects that in future, the northern belt in particular would have a possible threat of increasing tendency in air temperature. Especially, the northern areas (hosting the third largest ice reserves after the Polar Regions), an important feeding source for Indus River, are projected to be vulnerable in terms of increasing temperatures. Consequently, not only the hydro-agricultural sector but also the environmental conditions in the area may be at risk, in future.

  18. Physical simulation for low-energy astrobiology environmental scenarios.

    PubMed

    Gormly, Sherwin; Adams, V D; Marchand, Eric

    2003-01-01

    Speculations about the extent of life of independent origin and the potential for sustaining Earth-based life in subsurface environments on both Europa and Mars are of current and relevant interest. Theoretical modeling based on chemical energetics has demonstrated potential options for viable biochemical metabolism (metabolic pathways) in these types of environments. Also, similar environments on Earth show microbial activity. However, actual physical simulation testing of specific environments is required to confidently determine the interplay of various physical and chemical parameters on the viability of relevant metabolic pathways. This testing is required to determine the potential to sustain life in these environments on a specific scenario by scenario basis. This study examines the justification, design, and fabrication of, as well as the culture selection and screening for, a psychrophilic/halophilic/anaerobic digester. This digester is specifically designed to conform to physical testing needs of research relating to potential extent physical environments on Europa and other planetary bodies in the Solar System. The study is a long-term effort and is currently in an early phase, with only screening-level data at this time. Full study results will likely take an additional 2 years. However, researchers in electromagnetic biosignature and in situ instrument development should be aware of the study at this time, as they are invited to participate in planning for future applications of the digester facility.

  19. Persisting cold extremes under 21st-century warming scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Kodra, Evan A; Steinhaeuser, Karsten J K; Ganguly, Auroop R

    2011-01-01

    Analyses of climate model simulations and observations reveal that extreme cold events are likely to persist across each land-continent even under 21st-century warming scenarios. The grid-based intensity, duration and frequency of cold extreme events are calculated annually through three indices: the coldest annual consecutive three-day average of daily maximum temperature, the annual maximum of consecutive frost days, and the total number of frost days. Nine global climate models forced with a moderate greenhouse-gas emissions scenario compares the indices over 2091 2100 versus 1991 2000. The credibility of model-simulated cold extremes is evaluated through both bias scores relative to reanalysis data in the past and multi-model agreement in the future. The number of times the value of each annual index in 2091 2100 exceeds the decadal average of the corresponding index in 1991 2000 is counted. The results indicate that intensity and duration of grid-based cold extremes, when viewed as a global total, will often be as severe as current typical conditions in many regions, but the corresponding frequency does not show this persistence. While the models agree on the projected persistence of cold extremes in terms of global counts, regionally, inter-model variability and disparity in model performance tends to dominate. Our findings suggest that, despite a general warming trend, regional preparedness for extreme cold events cannot be compromised even towards the end of the century.

  20. Physical Simulation for Low-Energy Astrobiology Environmental Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gormly, Sherwin; Adams, V. D.; Marchand, Eric

    2003-12-01

    Speculations about the extent of life of independent origin and the potential for sustaining Earth-based life in subsurface environments on both Europa and Mars are of current and relevant interest. Theoretical modeling based on chemical energetics has demonstrated potential options for viable biochemical metabolism (metabolic pathways) in these types of environments. Also, similar environments on Earth show microbial activity. However, actual physical simulation testing of specific environments is required to confidently determine the interplay of various physical and chemical parameters on the viability of relevant metabolic pathways. This testing is required to determine the potential to sustain life in these environments on a specific scenario by scenario basis. This study examines the justification, design, and fabrication of, as well as the culture selection and screening for, a psychrophilic/halophilic/anaerobic digester. This digester is specifically designed to conform to physical testing needs of research relating to potential extent physical environments on Europa and other planetary bodies in the Solar System. The study is a long-term effort and is currently in an early phase, with only screening-level data at this time. Full study results will likely take an additional 2 years. However, researchers in electromagnetic biosignature and in situ instrument development should be aware of the study at this time, as they are invited to participate in planning for future applications of the digester facility.

  1. Raman resonance in iron-based superconductors: The magnetic scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hinojosa, Alberto; Cai, Jiashen; Chubukov, Andrey V.

    2016-02-01

    We perform theoretical analysis of polarization-sensitive Raman spectroscopy on NaFe1 -xCoxAs , EuFe 2 As2 , SrFe2As2 , and Ba (Fe1 -xCox )2As2 , focusing on two features seen in the B1 g symmetry channel (in one Fe unit cell notation): the strong temperature dependence of the static, uniform Raman response in the normal state and the existence of a collective mode in the superconducting state. We show that both features can be explained by the coupling of fermions to pairs of magnetic fluctuations via the Aslamazov-Larkin process. We first analyze magnetically mediated Raman intensity at the leading two-loop order and then include interactions between pairs of magnetic fluctuations. We show that the full Raman intensity in the B1 g channel can be viewed as the result of the coupling of light to Ising-nematic susceptibility via Aslamazov-Larkin process. We argue that the singular temperature dependence in the normal state is the combination of the temperature dependencies of the Aslamazov-Larkin vertex and of Ising-nematic susceptibility. We discuss two scenario for the resonance below Tc. One is the resonance due to development of a pole in the fully renormalized Ising-nematic susceptibility. Another is orbital excitonic scenario, in which spin fluctuations generate attractive interaction between low-energy fermions.

  2. Kinetic modelling of runaway electrons in dynamic scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stahl, A.; Embréus, O.; Papp, G.; Landreman, M.; Fülöp, T.

    2016-11-01

    Improved understanding of runaway-electron formation and decay processes are of prime interest for the safe operation of large tokamaks, and the dynamics of the runaway electrons during dynamical scenarios such as disruptions are of particular concern. In this paper, we present kinetic modelling of scenarios with time-dependent plasma parameters; in particular, we investigate hot-tail runaway generation during a rapid drop in plasma temperature. With the goal of studying runaway-electron generation with a self-consistent electric-field evolution, we also discuss the implementation of a collision operator that conserves momentum and energy and demonstrate its properties. An operator for avalanche runaway-electron generation, which takes the energy dependence of the scattering cross section and the runaway distribution into account, is investigated. We show that the simplified avalanche model of Rosenbluth and Putvinskii (1997 Nucl. Fusion 37 1355) can give inaccurate results for the avalanche growth rate (either lower or higher) for many parameters, especially when the average runaway energy is modest, such as during the initial phase of the avalanche multiplication. The developments presented pave the way for improved modelling of runaway-electron dynamics during disruptions or other dynamic events.

  3. Scenarios of daily extreme precipitation under climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Michael, Hofstätter; Christoph, Matulla; Jiafeng, Wang

    2010-05-01

    Daily extreme precipitation events under climate change conditions are the focus of research in our study. Such events can have considerable impacts on wealth and society by causing floodings or mudslides for example. In our study we used daily records of precipitation at 50 stations over Austria covering the period 1963-2006. To calculate the adequate timeseries for the future considering IPCC's climate change scenarios A1B and B1, we applied the analog method. Daily fields of Sea Level Pressure from the NCAR/NCEP1 Reanalysis within the region of Europe (20W-35E/30S-65N), served as the prime predictor between local scale observations and climate simulations out of the MPI-ECHAM5 model. Several return values were determined by fitting a GEV distribution to the timeseries consisting of the three most extreme, declustered events per year. The results reveal that future changes of 20y-return values are within +/-20% for most stations, whereby the signal of change is stronger for the first period (2007-2050) as compared to the later one (2051-2094). This is valid for both IPCC scenarios. We conclude, that even in the relatively small area of Austria both the sign and rate of change in future extreme precipitation, offers a clear diversity among climatological regions. This implies an important aspect for forthcoming studies.

  4. The role of vector fields in modified gravity scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Tasinato, Gianmassimo; Koyama, Kazuya; Khosravi, Nima E-mail: kazuya.koyama@port.ac.uk

    2013-11-01

    Gravitational vector degrees of freedom typically arise in many examples of modified gravity models. We start to systematically explore their role in these scenarios, studying the effects of coupling gravitational vector and scalar degrees of freedom. We focus on set-ups that enjoy a Galilean symmetry in the scalar sector and an Abelian gauge symmetry in the vector sector. These symmetries, together with the requirement that the equations of motion contain at most two space-time derivatives, only allow for a small number of operators in the Lagrangian for the gravitational fields. We investigate the role of gravitational vector fields for two broad classes of phenomena that characterize modified gravity scenarios. The first is self-acceleration: we analyze in general terms the behavior of vector fluctuations around self-accelerating solutions, and show that vanishing kinetic terms of vector fluctuations lead to instabilities on cosmological backgrounds. The second phenomenon is the screening of long range fifth forces by means of Vainshtein mechanism. We show that if gravitational vector fields are appropriately coupled to a spherically symmetric source, they can play an important role for defining the features of the background solution and the scale of the Vainshtein radius. Our general results can be applied to any concrete model of modified gravity, whose low-energy vector and scalar degrees of freedom satisfy the symmetry requirements that we impose.

  5. Testing alternative vicariance scenarios in Western Mediterranean discoglossid frogs.

    PubMed

    Fromhage, Lutz; Vences, Miguel; Veith, Michael

    2004-04-01

    Dated molecular phylogenies are often used to interpret evolutionary history with respect to paleogeographic events. Where more than one interpretation is possible, it is desirable but difficult to assess the alternatives in an objective manner. The present work demonstrates a formalized method for testing molecular clock calibrations and biogeographic scenarios based on them. We assessed the plausibility of several previously published biogeographic hypotheses, using the frog genera Alytes, Discoglossus, and Bombina as model groups. Our data set comprised ca. 900bp of partial mitochondrial 16S and 12S rRNA gene sequences (both genes evolved in a clock-like manner across genera) from nearly all the species and subspecies in the three genera. We tested several calibrations of a molecular clock, which resulted in competing temporal settings for the evolution of taxa. Although only one scenario was in complete accordance with paleogeographic data, statistical testing did not reject the alternatives. Limitations encountered with the present approach may be overcome by more comprehensive analyses in future.

  6. Physical simulation for low-energy astrobiology environmental scenarios.

    PubMed

    Gormly, Sherwin; Adams, V D; Marchand, Eric

    2003-01-01

    Speculations about the extent of life of independent origin and the potential for sustaining Earth-based life in subsurface environments on both Europa and Mars are of current and relevant interest. Theoretical modeling based on chemical energetics has demonstrated potential options for viable biochemical metabolism (metabolic pathways) in these types of environments. Also, similar environments on Earth show microbial activity. However, actual physical simulation testing of specific environments is required to confidently determine the interplay of various physical and chemical parameters on the viability of relevant metabolic pathways. This testing is required to determine the potential to sustain life in these environments on a specific scenario by scenario basis. This study examines the justification, design, and fabrication of, as well as the culture selection and screening for, a psychrophilic/halophilic/anaerobic digester. This digester is specifically designed to conform to physical testing needs of research relating to potential extent physical environments on Europa and other planetary bodies in the Solar System. The study is a long-term effort and is currently in an early phase, with only screening-level data at this time. Full study results will likely take an additional 2 years. However, researchers in electromagnetic biosignature and in situ instrument development should be aware of the study at this time, as they are invited to participate in planning for future applications of the digester facility. PMID:14987481

  7. Review of speculative ''disaster scenarios'' at RHIC

    SciTech Connect

    Jaffe, R. L.; Busza, W.; Wilczek, F.; Sandweiss, J.

    2000-10-01

    This paper discusses speculative disaster scenarios inspired by hypothetical new fundamental processes that might occur in high-energy relativistic heavy-ion collisions. The authors estimate the parameters relevant to black-hole production and find that they are absurdly small. They show that other accelerator and (especially) cosmic-ray environments have already provided far more auspicious opportunities for transition to a new vacuum state, so that existing observations provide stringent bounds. The possibility of producing a dangerous strangelet is discussed in most detail. The authors argue that four separate requirements are necessary for this to occur: existence of large stable strangelets, metastability of intermediate size strangelets, negative charge for strangelets along the stability line, and production of intermediate size strangelets in the heavy ion environment. Both theoretical and experimental reasons why each of these appears unlikely are discussed. In particular, the authors know of no plausible suggestion for why the third or especially the fourth might be true. Given minimal physical assumptions, the continued existence of the Moon, in the form we know it, despite billions of years of cosmic-ray exposure, provides powerful empirical evidence against the possibility of dangerous strangelet production.

  8. Scenario of Architectural Education in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dua, S.; Chahal, K. S.

    2014-09-01

    The dictionary meaning of education is to develop mentally and morally. A good holistic architectural education, therefore, is a combination of skills, information, as well as values. It is somewhat unique. The evaluation process is continuous in nature and in addition to the traditional means of assessment, the training in architectural education consists of varied interrelated parts-theory, field visit and studio/workshop. To certain extent the subjective nature of the design studio projects provides challenges and opportunities for both students and faculty members, in terms of acquiring necessary skills at the part of the students, and, necessity to update and upgrade continually with the changing pace at the part of the teachers. Technology continues to grow at a rapid pace; equipping the students to meet the complex demands of the profession; the curriculum structure and focus and value system must facilitate the relationship between general education and specialized study. Architects must acquire and understand the required information and find ways to put it in order and apply it to particular settings especially in this era of MNCs and BPOs. The paper discusses the current scenario of architectural education in India and affirms the need for change in this education from generalized study which had been in practice in twentieth century to a more relevant, specialised, and value-based education addressing technical and humanistic challenges more objectively in these vastly changing, socio-economic and political trends at global and regional levels.

  9. Undulator Hall Air Temperature Fault Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Sevilla, J.; Welch, J.; /SLAC

    2010-11-17

    Recent experience indicates that the LCLS undulator segments must not, at any time following tuning, be allowed to change temperature by more than about {+-}2.5 C or the magnetic center will irreversibly shift outside of acceptable tolerances. This vulnerability raises a concern that under fault conditions the ambient temperature in the Undulator Hall might go outside of the safe range and potentially could require removal and retuning of all the segments. In this note we estimate changes that can be expected in the Undulator Hall air temperature for three fault scenarios: (1) System-wide power failure; (2) Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) system shutdown; and (3) HVAC system temperature regulation fault. We find that for either a system-wide power failure or an HVAC system shutdown (with the technical equipment left on), the short-term temperature changes of the air would be modest due to the ability of the walls and floor to act as a heat ballast. No action would be needed to protect the undulator system in the event of a system-wide power failure. Some action to adjust the heat balance, in the case of the HVAC power failure with the equipment left on, might be desirable but is not required. On the other hand, a temperature regulation failure of the HVAC system can quickly cause large excursions in air temperature and prompt action would be required to avoid damage to the undulator system.

  10. Evolutionary scenarios for double degenerate systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sarna, M. J.; Marks, P. B.; Connon Smith, Robert

    1996-03-01

    We propose evolutionary scenarios in which double degenerate white dwarf systems can be produced through one or two phases of stable mass transfer. We consider Algol-type evolution as well as evolution involving first a stage of common-envelope (CE) evolution followed by a phase of stable mass transfer. We also show that the final orbital period of double white dwarf systems depends on the period after the first phase of mass transfer, and that there is critical period (the bifurcation period) above which systems evolve to orbital periods of the order of days and below which systems evolve towards very short orbital periods (a few hours). This probably corresponds to the observation that double degenerate systems have periods either of hours or of days. We also find a limit on the stability of mass transfer for systems that first go through a phase of CE evolution. We suggest that our new evolutionary scheme involving two stages of stable mass transfer and our scheme involving first CE evolution followed by stable mass transfer should be included in population synthesis models.

  11. Helicobacter pylori: the Middle East scenario.

    PubMed Central

    Novis, B. H.; Gabay, G.; Naftali, T.

    1998-01-01

    A review of Helicobacter pylori in the Middle East is presented. Prevalence studies have been performed in asymptomatic population groups from Algeria, Israel, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. These showed that the prevalence of H. pylori is similar to that of the developing countries of the world with a high level of infection in childhood (40 to 70 percent), which increases with age to 85 to 90 percent. Israel, however, has a low prevalence in children (10 percent), but there is a rapid rise in the second decade of life to 39 percent, reaching 79 percent in those over 60 years old. The prevalence rates were higher in those living in communal settlements (72 percent) than in urban dwellers (65 percent). The infection rates were higher in persons of Mediterranean and Asian origin (89 percent) compared to those of Western European/North American origin (57 percent). The prevalence rate of H. pylori infection in patients undergoing endoscopy for upper gastrointestinal symptoms has now been reported from many Middle Eastern countries, including Egypt, Iran, Israel, Oman, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Yemen. These studies showed that patients with gastritis and peptic ulcer disease had similar rates of infection as reported from Europe, United States and Africa (71 to 92 percent). However, patients with non-ulcer dyspepsia had higher rates of infection (61 to 89 percent). The H. pylori scenario from the prevalence rates, treatment protocols and responses to treatment does not differ very much from other developing areas of the world. PMID:10378359

  12. Realistic Ground Motion Scenarios: Methodological Approach

    SciTech Connect

    Nunziata, C.; Peresan, A.; Romanelli, F.; Vaccari, F.; Zuccolo, E.; Panza, G. F.

    2008-07-08

    The definition of realistic seismic input can be obtained from the computation of a wide set of time histories, corresponding to possible seismotectonic scenarios. The propagation of the waves in the bedrock from the source to the local laterally varying structure is computed with the modal summation technique, while in the laterally heterogeneous structure the finite difference method is used. The definition of shear wave velocities within the soil cover is obtained from the non-linear inversion of the dispersion curve of group velocities of Rayleigh waves, artificially or naturally generated. Information about the possible focal mechanisms of the sources can be obtained from historical seismicity, based on earthquake catalogues and inversion of isoseismal maps. In addition, morphostructural zonation and pattern recognition of seismogenic nodes is useful to identify areas prone to strong earthquakes, based on the combined analysis of topographic, tectonic, geological maps and satellite photos. We show that the quantitative knowledge of regional geological structures and the computation of realistic ground motion can be a powerful tool for a preventive definition of the seismic hazard in Italy. Then, the formulation of reliable building codes, based on the evaluation of the main potential earthquakes, will have a great impact on the effective reduction of the seismic vulnerability of Italian urban areas, validating or improving the national building code.

  13. Screening closing scenarios for tactical targets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sefcik, Jason A.; Lee, Harry C.; Olson, Teresa L. P.

    2002-07-01

    The first step in an automatic image target acquisition system is determining the location of candidate objects. Screening for targets must also be done within a tactical scenario timeframe. The screening process must only require a portion of the processing workload since other algorithms must execute in the same time frame. The detection of these candidate objects is allocated to two functions within the same algorithm. The first is a pre-screener and other is a clutter rejection component that will categorize the object nomination into target or non-target classes. This paper describes a screener that meets the necessary requirements for tactical operations. It uses the magnitude and direction of the image gradient. Locations are nominated by looking at local neighborhoods in this gradient space. Regions of interest are then selected and various features are extracted. These features are selected both for their information content and their ease of calculation. Using a Bayes approach, target candidates are selected as plausible targets of interest.

  14. The Variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in the Last Millennium and two IPCC Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ortega, P.; Montoya, M.; Gonzalez-Rouco, F.

    2008-12-01

    This work focuses on the simulation and description of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability during the last millennium and its projection into future scenarios. Five simulations performed with the ECHO-G atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) are used in this study: one 1000-yr long control run (CTRL), two forced simulations of the last millennium (FOR1 and FOR2) and two IPCC scenario simulations (A2 and B2) covering the 21st century. In the forced millennial experiments changes in three forcing factors are considered: solar irradiance, the radiative effect of volcanic aerosols and greenhouse gas concentrations. The long-term mean AMOC streamfunction exhibits a realistic circulation, with values close to estimates. The temporal evolution of the AMOC is analysed by means of the Meridional Overturning Index (MOI), defined as the maximum AMOC streamfunction value. The forced runs evidence a weakening of the MOI beginning in the industrial era and increasing in intensity in the future scenario simulations, accounting for a final decrease of up to 40% with respect to the mean preindustrial value. Both the Fourier and wavelet spectrums of the MOI series show an AMOC behaviour close to that of a red noise process; variance exceeds that of an AR(1) at interannual and interdecadal timescales. In the high-frequency (periods < 10 yr), the AMOC is directly responding to atmosphere dynamics, driven by changes in wind-forced Ekman transport at the ocean surface. Several local overturning indices are used, leading to the identification of three main driving patterns: one associated to the NAO, another to ENSO and the last one linked to a local anticyclonic cell over the North Atlantic. All these results are common to the control and the forced runs. In the low frequency (periods > 10 yr) the AMOC is characterized by basin-scale streamfunction anomalies propagating in time. In this case several differences are found among the simulations

  15. Simulation of ITER full-field ICWC scenario in JET: RF physics aspects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lyssoivan, A.; Douai, D.; Koch, R.; Ongena, J.; Philipps, V.; Schüller, F. C.; Van Eester, D.; Wauters, T.; Blackman, T.; Bobkov, V.; Brezinsek, S.; de la Cal, E.; Durodié, F.; Gauthier, E.; Gerbaud, T.; Graham, M.; Jachmich, S.; Joffrin, E.; Kreter, A.; Kyrytsya, V.; Lerche, E.; Lomas, P.; Louche, F.; Maslov, M.; Mayoral, M.-L.; Moiseenko, V.; Monakhov, I.; Pankratov, I.; Paul, M. K.; Pitts, R. A.; Plyusnin, V.; Sergienko, G.; Shimada, M.; Vdovin, V. L.; contributors, JET-EFDA

    2012-07-01

    ITER as a superconducting fusion machine needs efficient wall conditioning techniques for application in the presence of the permanent high toroidal magnetic field for (i) reducing the in-vessel impurity content, (ii) controlling the surface hydrogen isotopic ratio and (iii) mitigating the in-vessel long-term tritium inventory build-up. Encouraging results recently obtained with ion-cyclotron wall conditioning (ICWC) in the present-day tokamaks and stellarators have raised ICWC to the status of one of the most promising techniques available to ITER for routine inter-pulse and overnight conditioning with the ITER main ICRF heating system in the presence of the permanent high toroidal magnetic field. This paper is dedicated to a milestone experiment in ICWC research: the first simulation of ICWC operation in an equivalent ITER full-field scenario and the assessment of the wall conditioning effect on the carbon wall in the largest present-day tokamak JET. In addition, we address in this paper the following topics: (i) an analysis of the radio frequency (RF) physics of ICWC discharges, (ii) the optimization of the operation of ICRF antennas for plasma startup and (iii) an outlook for the performance of ICWC in ITER using the ICRF heating system. Important operational aspects of the conventional ICRF heating system in JET (the so-called A2 antenna system) for use in the ICWC mode are highlighted: (i) the ability of the antenna to ignite the cleaning discharge safely and reliably in different gases, (ii) the capacity of the antennas to couple a large fraction of the RF generator power (>50%) to low-density (≈1016-1018 m-3) plasmas and (iii) the ICRF absorption schemes aimed at improved RF plasma homogeneity and enhanced conditioning effect. Successful optimization of the JET-ICWC discharge parameters (BT = 3.3 T, f = 25 MHz) resulted in a reliable operation of the JET A2 antennas and a high conditioning efficiency in a scenario imitating closely ITER full

  16. Construct Validity and Generalizability of Simulation-Based Objective Structured Clinical Examination Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Sidi, Avner; Gravenstein, Nikolaus; Lampotang, Samsun

    2014-01-01

    Background It is not known if construct-related validity (progression of scores with different levels of training) and generalizability of Objective Structured Clinical Examination (OSCE) scenarios previously used with non-US graduating anesthesiology residents translate to a US training program. Objective We assessed for progression of scores with training for a validated high-stakes simulation-based anesthesiology examination. Methods Fifty US anesthesiology residents in postgraduate years (PGYs) 2 to 4 were evaluated in operating room, trauma, and resuscitation scenarios developed for and used in a high-stakes Israeli Anesthesiology Board examination, requiring a score of 70% on the checklist for passing (including all critical items). Results The OSCE error rate was lower for PGY-4 than PGY-2 residents in each field, and for most scenarios within each field. The critical item error rate was significantly lower for PGY-4 than PGY-3 residents in operating room scenarios, and for PGY-4 than PGY-2 residents in resuscitation scenarios. The final pass rate was significantly higher for PGY-3 and PGY-4 than PGY-2 residents in operating room scenarios, and also was significantly higher for PGY-4 than PGY-2 residents overall. PGY-4 residents had a better error rate, total scenarios score, general evaluation score, critical items error rate, and final pass rate than PGY-2 residents. Conclusions The comparable error rates, performance grades, and pass rates for US PGY-4 and non-US (Israeli) graduating (PGY-4 equivalent) residents, and the progression of scores among US residents with training level, demonstrate the construct-related validity and generalizability of these high-stakes OSCE scenarios. PMID:26279774

  17. A multivariate copula-based framework for dealing with hazard scenarios and failure probabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salvadori, G.; Durante, F.; De Michele, C.; Bernardi, M.; Petrella, L.

    2016-05-01

    This paper is of methodological nature, and deals with the foundations of Risk Assessment. Several international guidelines have recently recommended to select appropriate/relevant Hazard Scenarios in order to tame the consequences of (extreme) natural phenomena. In particular, the scenarios should be multivariate, i.e., they should take into account the fact that several variables, generally not independent, may be of interest. In this work, it is shown how a Hazard Scenario can be identified in terms of (i) a specific geometry and (ii) a suitable probability level. Several scenarios, as well as a Structural approach, are presented, and due comparisons are carried out. In addition, it is shown how the Hazard Scenario approach illustrated here is well suited to cope with the notion of Failure Probability, a tool traditionally used for design and risk assessment in engineering practice. All the results outlined throughout the work are based on the Copula Theory, which turns out to be a fundamental theoretical apparatus for doing multivariate risk assessment: formulas for the calculation of the probability of Hazard Scenarios in the general multidimensional case (d≥2) are derived, and worthy analytical relationships among the probabilities of occurrence of Hazard Scenarios are presented. In addition, the Extreme Value and Archimedean special cases are dealt with, relationships between dependence ordering and scenario levels are studied, and a counter-example concerning Tail Dependence is shown. Suitable indications for the practical application of the techniques outlined in the work are given, and two case studies illustrate the procedures discussed in the paper.

  18. Scenario analysis to vehicular emission reduction in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, China.

    PubMed

    Guo, Xiurui; Fu, Liwei; Ji, Muse; Lang, Jianlei; Chen, Dongsheng; Cheng, Shuiyuan

    2016-09-01

    Motor vehicle emissions are increasingly becoming one of the important factors affecting the urban air quality in China. It is necessary and useful to policy makers to demonstrate the situation given the relevant pollutants reduction measures are taken. This paper predicted the reduction potentials of conventional pollutants (PM10, NOx, CO, HC) under different control strategies and policies in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region during 2011-2020. There are the baseline and 5 control scenarios designed, which presented the different current and future possible vehicular emissions control measures. Future population of different kinds of vehicles were predicted based on the Gompertz model, and vehicle kilometers travelled estimated as well. After that, the emissions reduction under the different scenarios during 2011-2020 could be estimated using emission factors and activity level data. The results showed that, the vehicle population in the BTH region would continue to grow up, especially in Tianjin and Hebei. Comparing the different scenarios, emission standards updating scenario would achieve a substantial reduction and keep rising up for all the pollutants, and the scenario of eliminating high-emission vehicles can reduce emissions more effectively in short-term than in long-term, especially in Beijing. Due to the constraints of existing economical and technical level, the reduction effect of promoting new energy vehicles would not be significant, especially given the consideration of their lifetime impact. The reduction effect of population regulation scenario in Beijing cannot be ignorable and would keep going up for PM10, CO and HC, excluding NOx. Under the integrated scenario considering all the control measures it would achieve the maximum reduction potential of emissions, which means to reduce emissions of PM10, NOx, CO, HC, by 56%, 59%, 48%, 52%, respectively, compared to BAU scenario for the whole BTH region in 2020. PMID:27325548

  19. Altering the mechanical scenario to decrease the driving pressure.

    PubMed

    Borges, João Batista; Hedenstierna, Göran; Larsson, Anders; Suarez-Sipmann, Fernando

    2015-09-21

    Ventilator settings resulting in decreased driving pressure (ΔP) are positively associated with survival. How to further foster the potential beneficial mediator effect of a reduced ΔP? One possibility is promoting the active modification of the lung's "mechanical scenario" by means of lung recruitment and positive end-expiratory pressure selection. By taking into account the individual distribution of the threshold-opening airway pressures to achieve maximal recruitment, a redistribution of the tidal volume from overdistended to newly recruited lung occurs. The resulting more homogeneous distribution of transpulmonary pressures may induce a relief of overdistension in the upper regions. The gain in lung compliance after a successful recruitment rescales the size of the functional lung, potentially allowing for a further reduction in ΔP.

  20. Scenarios of energy demand and efficiency potential for Bulgaria

    SciTech Connect

    Tzvetanov, P.; Ruicheva, M.; Denisiev, M.

    1996-12-31

    The paper presents aggregated results on macroeconomic and final energy demand scenarios developed within the Bulgarian Country Study on Greenhouse Gas Emissions Mitigation, supported by US Country Studies Program. The studies in this area cover 5 main stages: (1) {open_quotes}Baseline{close_quotes} and {open_quotes}Energy Efficiency{close_quotes} socioeconomic and energy policy philosophy; (2) Modeling of macroeconomic and sectoral development till 2020; (3) Expert assessments on the technological options for energy efficiency increase and GHG mitigation in the Production, Transport and Households and Services Sectors; (4) Bottom-up modeling of final energy demand; and (5) Sectoral and overall energy efficiency potential and policy. Within the Bulgarian Country Study, the presented results have served as a basis for the final integration stage {open_quotes}Assessment of the Mitigation Policy and Measures in the Energy System of Bulgaria{close_quotes}.

  1. A “midinfrared” scenario for cuprate superconductivity

    PubMed Central

    Leggett, A. J.

    1999-01-01

    I conjecture that the mechanism of superconductivity in the cuprates is a saving, due to the improved screening resulting from Cooper pair formation, of the part of the Coulomb energy associated with long wavelengths and midinfrared frequencies. This scenario is shown to provide a plausible explanation of the trend of transition temperature with layering structure in the Ca-spaced compounds and to predict a spectacularly large decrease in the electron-energy-loss spectroscopy cross-section in the midinfrared region on transition to the superconducting state, as well as less spectacular but still surprisingly large changes in the optical behavior. Existing experimental results appear to be consistent with this picture. PMID:10411881

  2. Application of dispersion modeling to indoor gas release scenarios.

    PubMed

    Rasouli, F; Williams, T A

    1995-03-01

    Many complex models are available to study the dispersion of contaminants or ventilation effectiveness in indoor spaces. Because of the computationally complex numerical schemes employed, most of these models require mainframe computers or workstations. However, simple design tools or guidelines are needed, in addition to complicated models. A dispersion model based on the basic governing equations was developed and uses an analytical solution. Because the concentration is expressed by an analytical solution, the grid size and time steps are user definable. A computer program was used to obtain numerical results and to obtain release history from a thermodynamic source model. The model can be used to estimate three-dimensional spatial and temporal variations in concentrations resulting from transient gas releases in an enclosure. The model was used to study a gas release scenario from a pressurized cylinder into a large ventilated building, in this case, a transit parking and fueling facility. PMID:15658159

  3. Randall-Sundrum scenario with bulk dilaton and torsion

    SciTech Connect

    Mukhopadhyaya, Biswarup; Sen, Somasri; SenGupta, Soumitra

    2009-06-15

    We consider a string-inspired torsion-dilaton-gravity action in a Randall-Sundrum braneworld scenario and show that, in an effective four-dimensional theory on the visible brane, the rank-2 antisymmetric Kalb-Ramond field (source of torsion) is exponentially suppressed. The result is similar to our earlier result in [B. Mukhopadhyaya, S. Sen, and S. SenGupta, Phys. Rev. Lett. 89, 121101 (2002); Phys. Rev. Lett. 89, 259902(E) (2002)], where no dilaton was present in the bulk. This offers an explanation of the apparent invisibility of torsion in our space-time. However, in this case the trilinear couplings {approx}TeV{sup -1} between the dilaton and torsion may lead to new signals in TeV-scale experiments, bearing the stamp of extra warped dimensions.

  4. The problem of the initial conditions in flavoured leptogenesis and the tauon N-dominated scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bertuzzo, Enrico; Di Bari, Pasquale; Marzola, Luca

    2011-08-01

    We discuss the conditions to realise a scenario of 'strong thermal leptogenesis,' where the final asymmetry is fully independent of the initial conditions, taking into account both heavy and light neutrino flavour effects. In particular, the contribution to the final asymmetry from an initial pre-existing asymmetry has to be negligible. We show that in the case of a hierarchical right-handed (RH) neutrino mass spectrum, the only possible way is an N-dominated leptogenesis scenario with a lightest RH neutrino mass M≪10 GeV and with a next-to-lightest RH neutrino mass 10 GeV≫M≫10 GeV. This scenario necessarily requires the presence of a heaviest third RH neutrino specie. Moreover, we show that the final asymmetry has to be dominantly produced in the tauon flavour while the electron and the muon asymmetries have to be efficiently washed-out by the lightest RH neutrino inverse processes. Intriguingly, such seemingly special conditions for successful strong thermal leptogenesis are naturally fulfilled within SO(10)-inspired models. Besides the tauon N-dominated scenario, successful strong thermal leptogenesis is also achieved in scenarios with quasi-degenerate RH neutrino masses. We also comment on the supersymmetric case. We also derive an expression for the final asymmetry produced from leptogenesis taking fully into account heavy neutrino flavour effects in the specific case M≫10 GeV (heavy flavoured scenario), a result that can be extended to any other mass pattern.

  5. Evaluating pharmacists' ability to counsel on tobacco cessation using two standardized patient scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Martin, Beth A.; Chewning, Betty A.

    2011-01-01

    Objectives To evaluate the impact that role-playing two pre/post standardized patient scenarios within a tobacco cessation training program had on pharmacists' counseling skills. Second, to analyze the validity of the observation coding tool used to evaluate pharmacist's role-play performance. Methods Pharmacists performed two role-playing scenarios which incorporated national guidelines, the 5A's counseling process, and the “preparation” and “action” phases of the transtheoretical model. Pharmacists' performance was evaluated with an observation coding tool. Results Pharmacists' (n=25) counseling performance improved significantly post-training (p<0.02: Action Scenario; p<0.004: Preparation Scenario). More than 50% of pharmacists provided patient-directed tobacco consultation services in the one year following training. The observation tool score for the “action phase” scenario was highly associated with pharmacists' subsequent delivery of tobacco cessation services in community practice. Conclusion Role-playing facilitated pharmacists' skill development. The evaluation tool and Action Scenario may be powerful for predicting pharmacists' delivery of tobacco cessation services. Practice Implications Incorporating role-playing and structured tools for performance evaluation can help enhance pharmacist performance during training and predict service delivery in community practice. Together they could facilitate tailored feedback to help pharmacists struggling with the difficult task of extending cognitive service roles in practice. PMID:21237610

  6. The implications of future building scenarios for long-term building energy research and development

    SciTech Connect

    Flynn, W.T.

    1986-12-01

    This report presents a discussion of alternative future scenarios of the building environment to the year 2010 and assesses the implications these scenarios present for long-term building energy R and D. The scenarios and energy R and D implications derived from them are intended to serve as the basis from which a strategic plan can be developed for the management of R and D programs conducted by the Office of Buildings and Community Systems, US Department of Energy. The scenarios and analysis presented here have relevance not only for government R and D programs; on the contrary, it is hoped that the results of this effort will be of interest and useful to researchers in both private and public sector organizations that deal with building energy R and D. Making R and D decisions today based on an analysis that attempts to delineate the nexus of events 25 years in the future are clearly decisions made in the face of uncertainty. Yet, the effective management of R and D programs requires a future-directed understanding of markets, technological developments, and environmental factors, as well as their interactions. The analysis presented in this report is designed to serve that need. Although the probability of any particular scenario actually occurring is uncertain, the scenarios to be presented are sufficiently robust to set bounds within which to examine the interaction of forces that will shape the future building environment.

  7. Comparing population exposure to multiple Washington earthquake scenarios for prioritizing loss estimation studies

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wood, Nathan J.; Ratliff, Jamie L.; Schelling, John; Weaver, Craig S.

    2014-01-01

    Scenario-based, loss-estimation studies are useful for gauging potential societal impacts from earthquakes but can be challenging to undertake in areas with multiple scenarios and jurisdictions. We present a geospatial approach using various population data for comparing earthquake scenarios and jurisdictions to help emergency managers prioritize where to focus limited resources on data development and loss-estimation studies. Using 20 earthquake scenarios developed for the State of Washington (USA), we demonstrate how a population-exposure analysis across multiple jurisdictions based on Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) classes helps emergency managers understand and communicate where potential loss of life may be concentrated and where impacts may be more related to quality of life. Results indicate that certain well-known scenarios may directly impact the greatest number of people, whereas other, potentially lesser-known, scenarios impact fewer people but consequences could be more severe. The use of economic data to profile each jurisdiction’s workforce in earthquake hazard zones also provides additional insight on at-risk populations. This approach can serve as a first step in understanding societal impacts of earthquakes and helping practitioners to efficiently use their limited risk-reduction resources.

  8. Dust Plume Modeling at Fort Bliss: Full Training Scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Chapman, Elaine G.; Rishel, Jeremy P.; Rutz, Frederick C.; Seiple, Timothy E.; Newsom, Rob K.; Allwine, K Jerry

    2006-09-26

    The potential for air quality impacts from heavy mechanized vehicles operating in the training ranges and on the unpaved main supply routes at Fort Bliss is being investigated. The investigation uses the atmospheric modeling system DUSTRAN to simulate fugitive dust emission and dispersion from typical activities occurring on the installation. This report conveys the results of DUSTRAN simulations conducted using a “Full Training” scenario developed by Fort Bliss personnel. he Full Training scenario includes simultaneous off-road activities of two full Heavy Brigade Combat Teams (HCBTs) and one HCBT battalion on three training ranges. Simulations were conducted for the six-day period, April 25-30, 2005, using previously archived meteorological records. Simulation results are presented in the form of 24-hour average PM10 plots and peak 1-hour PM10 concentration plots, where the concentrations represent contributions resulting from the specified military vehicular activities, not total ambient PM10 concentrations. Results indicate that the highest PM10 contribution concentrations occurred on April 30 when winds were light and variable. Under such conditions, lofted particulates generated by vehicular movement stay in the area of generation and are not readily dispersed. The effect of training duration was investigated by comparing simulations with vehicular activity extending over a ten hour period (0700 to 1700 MST) with simulations where vehicular activity was compressed into a one hour period (0700 to 0800 MST). Compressing all vehicular activity into one hour led to higher peak one-hour and 24-hour average concentration contributions, often substantially higher.

  9. The future scenario for international labour migration.

    PubMed

    Tassello, G

    1989-01-01

    The study of migration helps us to grasp the social evolution and the political and economic strategies required to meet the new economic trends. The issue of permanent or temporary migration, long debated in the 1960s, now tends to disappear. Migrants are compared more to commuters on the international labor markets. Besides the economic out-migration flows, there are also the refugee migrations or the ever present phenomenon of persons uprooted from their home country as a result of natural disasters and famine. The worldwide economic crisis in the 1970s, the recession affecting some industrialized countries which used to be traditional labor-importing countries have barred many potential immigrant workers from entering these countries. If, on 1 hand, the persistent high rate of unemployment due to the transformation of industry and the computerization process has caused the dismissal of numerous unskilled--mainly immigrants--on the other hand, it has created the exigency of highly qualified personnel. The children of the indigenous population are therefore favored because of their better scholastic training. A 2nd generation is now condemned to remain marginal even though they have been brought up to the ideals of social improvement and integration into higher standards of living. A highly dissatisfied category of young people is now an integral part of many labor-importing countries. Many industrial countries are flirting with zero population growth. Considering the demographic, economic, social, and political imbalances which exist and tend to grow, the world now has all the prerequisites for huge and prolonged migration flows originating from the South and moving almost exclusively toward the megacities and the industrial countries in the North. As long as technological as well as social inequalities persist, inner and international migration flows will continue. It is evident that the aim of many highly industrialized countries is the total ceasing of all

  10. Modeling and Composing Scenario-Based Requirements with Aspects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Araujo, Joao; Whittle, Jon; Ki, Dae-Kyoo

    2004-01-01

    There has been significant recent interest, within the Aspect-Oriented Software Development (AOSD) community, in representing crosscutting concerns at various stages of the software lifecycle. However, most of these efforts have concentrated on the design and implementation phases. We focus in this paper on representing aspects during use case modeling. In particular, we focus on scenario-based requirements and show how to compose aspectual and non-aspectual scenarios so that they can be simulated as a whole. Non-aspectual scenarios are modeled as UML sequence diagram. Aspectual scenarios are modeled as Interaction Pattern Specifications (IPS). In order to simulate them, the scenarios are transformed into a set of executable state machines using an existing state machine synthesis algorithm. Previous work composed aspectual and non-aspectual scenarios at the sequence diagram level. In this paper, the composition is done at the state machine level.

  11. Defining Scenarios: Linking Integrated Models, Regional Concerns, and Stakeholders

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hartmann, H. C.; Stewart, S.; Liu, Y.; Mahmoud, M.

    2007-05-01

    Scenarios are important tools for long-term planning, and there is great interest in using integrated models in scenario studies. However, scenario definition and assessment are creative, as well as scientific, efforts. Using facilitated creative processes, we have worked with stakeholders to define regionally significant scenarios that encompass a broad range of hydroclimatic, socioeconomic, and institutional dimensions. The regional scenarios subsequently inform the definition of local scenarios that work with context-specific integrated models that, individually, can address only a subset of overall regional complexity. Based on concerns of stakeholders in the semi-arid US Southwest, we prioritized three dimensions that are especially important, yet highly uncertain, for long-term planning: hydroclimatic conditions (increased variability, persistent drought), development patterns (urban consolidation, distributed rural development), and the nature of public institutions (stressed, proactive). Linking across real-world decision contexts and integrated modeling efforts poses challenges of creatively connecting the conceptual models held by both the research and stakeholder communities.

  12. Impacts and responses to sea-level rise: a global analysis of the SRES scenarios over the twenty-first century.

    PubMed

    Nicholls, Robert J; Tol, Richard S J

    2006-04-15

    Taking the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) climate and socio-economic scenarios (A1FI, A2, B1 and B2 'future worlds'), the potential impacts of sea-level rise through the twenty-first century are explored using complementary impact and economic analysis methods at the global scale. These methods have never been explored together previously. In all scenarios, the exposure and hence the impact potential due to increased flooding by sea-level rise increases significantly compared to the base year (1990). While mitigation reduces impacts, due to the lagged response of sea-level rise to atmospheric temperature rise, impacts cannot be avoided during the twenty-first century by this response alone. Cost-benefit analyses suggest that widespread protection will be an economically rational response to land loss due to sea-level rise in the four SRES futures that are considered. The most vulnerable future worlds to sea-level rise appear to be the A2 and B2 scenarios, which primarily reflects differences in the socio-economic situation (coastal population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and GDP/capita), rather than the magnitude of sea-level rise. Small islands and deltaic settings stand out as being more vulnerable as shown in many earlier analyses. Collectively, these results suggest that human societies will have more choice in how they respond to sea-level rise than is often assumed. However, this conclusion needs to be tempered by recognition that we still do not understand these choices and significant impacts remain possible. Future worlds which experience larger rises in sea-level than considered here (above 35 cm), more extreme events, a reactive rather than proactive approach to adaptation, and where GDP growth is slower or more unequal than in the SRES futures remain a concern. There is considerable scope for further research to better understand these diverse issues.

  13. Plant distributions in the southwestern United States; a scenario assessment of the modern-day and future distribution ranges of 166 Species

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thomas, Kathryn A.; Guertin, Patricia P.; Gass, Leila

    2012-01-01

    The authors developed spatial models of the predicted modern-day suitable habitat (SH) of 166 dominant and indicator plant species of the southwestern United States (herein referred to as the Southwest) and then conducted a coarse assessment of potential future changes in the distribution of their suitable habitat under three climate-change scenarios for two time periods. We used Maxent-based spatial modeling to predict the modern-day and future scenarios of SH for each species in an over 342-million-acre area encompassing all or parts of six states in the Southwest--Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. Modern-day SH models were predicted by our using 26 annual and monthly average temperature and precipitation variables, averaged for the years 1971-2000. Future SH models were predicted for each species by our using six climate models based on application of the average of 16 General Circulation Models to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios B1, A1B, and A2 for two time periods, 2040 to 2069 and 2070 and 2100, referred to respectively as the 2050 and 2100 time periods. The assessment examined each species' vulnerability to loss of modern-day SH under future climate scenarios, potential to gain SH under future climate scenarios, and each species' estimated risk as a function of both vulnerability and potential gains. All 166 species were predicted to lose modern-day SH in the future climate change scenarios. In the 2050 time period, nearly 30 percent of the species lost 75 percent or more of their modern-day suitable habitat, 21 species gained more new SH than their modern-day SH, and 30 species gained less new SH than 25 percent of their modern-day SH. In the 2100 time period, nearly half of the species lost 75 percent or more of their modern-day SH, 28 species gained more new SH than their modern-day SH, and 34 gained less new SH than 25 percent of their modern-day SH. Using nine risk categories we found only two

  14. Microlevel planning. Part 2: Impact analysis through scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Devadas, V.

    1997-07-01

    This article presents the application of a scenario approach to microlevel planning via impact analysis of various control parameters. The advantage of scenario analysis for microlevel planning is discussed, and scenarios are developed and discussed for analyzing the impact of (1) replacing field crops by plantation crops, (2) introducing energy plantations, (3) introducing fuel-efficient stoves, (4) increasing fertilizer prices, (5) increasing fertilizer application, (6) increasing population growth, (7) drought conditions, and (8) decreasing availability of fuelwood.

  15. "Actionable" Climate Scenarios for Natural Resource Managers in Southwestern Colorado

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rangwala, I.; Rondeau, R.; Wyborn, C.

    2014-12-01

    Locally relevant projections of climate change provide critical insights for natural resource managers seeking to adapt their management activities to climate change. To provide such information, we developed narrative scenarios of future climate change and its impacts on different ecosystems in southwestern Colorado. This multi-institution and trans-disciplinary project seeks to provide useful and useable knowledge to facilitate climate change adaptation in the context of uncertainty. The narratives are intended to provide detailed insights into the range of changes that natural resource managers may face in the future. These scenarios were developed in an iterative process through interactions between ecologists, social and climate scientists. In our scenario development process, climate uncertainty is acknowledged by having multiple scenarios, where each scenario is regarded as a storyline with equal probability as another scenario. Rather than a qualitative narration of the general direction of change and range in responses, we quantified changes in several decision relevant climate and ecological responses based on our best available understanding and provided a tight storyline for each scenario to facilitate (a) a more augmented use of scientific information in a decision-making process, (b) differential responses from stakeholders across the different scenarios, and (c) identification of strategies that could work across these multiple scenarios. This presentation will discuss the process of selecting the scenarios, quantifying climate and ecological responses, and the criteria for building the narrative for each scenario. We will also cover the process by which these scenarios get used, and how the user feedbacks are integrated in further developing the tools and processes.

  16. Toward Interactive Scenario Analysis and Exploration

    SciTech Connect

    Gayle, Thomas R.; Summers, Kenneth Lee; Jungels, John; Oppel III, Fred J.

    2015-01-01

    As Modeling and Simulation (M&S) tools have matured, their applicability and importance have increased across many national security challenges. In particular, they provide a way to test how something may behave without the need to do real world testing. However, current and future changes across several factors including capabilities, policy, and funding are driving a need for rapid response or evaluation in ways that many M&S tools cannot address. Issues around large data, computational requirements, delivery mechanisms, and analyst involvement already exist and pose significant challenges. Furthermore, rising expectations, rising input complexity, and increasing depth of analysis will only increase the difficulty of these challenges. In this study we examine whether innovations in M&S software coupled with advances in ''cloud'' computing and ''big-data'' methodologies can overcome many of these challenges. In particular, we propose a simple, horizontally-scalable distributed computing environment that could provide the foundation (i.e. ''cloud'') for next-generation M&S-based applications based on the notion of ''parallel multi-simulation''. In our context, the goal of parallel multi- simulation is to consider as many simultaneous paths of execution as possible. Therefore, with sufficient resources, the complexity is dominated by the cost of single scenario runs as opposed to the number of runs required. We show the feasibility of this architecture through a stable prototype implementation coupled with the Umbra Simulation Framework [6]. Finally, we highlight the utility through multiple novel analysis tools and by showing the performance improvement compared to existing tools.

  17. Effective Scenarios for Exploring Asteroid Surfaces

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clark, Pamela E.; Clark, C.; Weisbin, C.

    2010-10-01

    In response to the proposal that asteroids be the next targets for exploration, we attempt to develop scenarios for exploring previously mapped asteroid 433 Eros, harnessing our recent experience gained planning such activity for return to the lunar surface. The challenges faced in planning Apollo led to the development of a baseline methodology for extraterrestrial field science. What `lessons learned’ can be applied for asteroids? Effective reconnaissance (advanced mapping at <0.5 m, photos with plotted routes as in-field reference maps), training/simulating/planning (highly interactive abundant field time for extended crew), and documentation (hands-free audio and visual systematic description) procedures are still valid. The use of Constant Scale Natural Boundary rather than standard projection maps eases the challenge of navigating and interpreting a highly irregular object. Lunar and asteroid surfaces are dominated by bombardment and space radiation/dust/charged particle/regolith interactions, with similar implications for sampling. Asteroid work stations are selected on the basis of impact-induced exposure of `outcrops’ from prominent ridges (e.g., Himeros, the noses) potentially representing underlying material, supplemented by sampling of areas of especially thin or deep regolith (ponds). Unlike the Moon, an asteroid lacks sufficient gravity and most likely the necessary stability to support `normal’ driving or walking. In fact, the crew delivery vehicle might not even be `tetherable’ and would most likely `station keep’ to maintain a position. The most convenient local mobility mechanism for astronauts/robots would be `hand over hand’ above the surface at a field station supplemented by a `tetherless’ (small rocket-pack) control system for changing station or return to vehicle. Thus, we assume similar mobility constraints (meters to hundreds of meters at a local station, kilometers between stations) as those used for Apollo. We also assume

  18. Non-standard structure formation scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knebe, Alexander; Little, Brett; Islam, Ranty; Devriendt, Julien; Mahmood, Asim; Silk, Joe

    2003-04-01

    Observations on galactic scales seem to be in contradiction with recent high resolution N-body simulations. This so-called cold dark matter (CDM) crisis has been addressed in several ways, ranging from a change in fundamental physics by introducing self-interacting cold dark matter particles to a tuning of complex astrophysical processes such as global and/or local feedback. All these efforts attempt to soften density profiles and reduce the abundance of satellites in simulated galaxy halos. In this contribution we are exploring the differences between a Warm Dark Matter model and a CDM model where the power on a certain scale is reduced by introducing a narrow negative feature (`dip'). This dip is placed in a way so as to mimic the loss of power in the WDM model: both models have the same integrated power out to the scale where the power of the Dip model rises to the level of the unperturbed CDM spectrum again. Using N-body simulations we show that that the new Dip model appears to be a viable alternative to WDM while being based on different physics: where WDM requires the introduction of a new particle species the Dip stems from anon-standard inflationary period. If we are looking for an alternative to the currently challenged standard ΛCDM structure formation scenario, neither the ΛWDM nor the new Dip model can be ruled out with respect to the analysis presented in this contribution. They both make very similar predictions and the degeneracy between them can only be broken with observations yet to come.

  19. Sensitivity of 21st century stratospheric ozone to greenhouse gas scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eyring, V.; Cionni, I.; Lamarque, J. F.; Akiyoshi, H.; Bodeker, G. E.; Charlton-Perez, A. J.; Frith, S. M.; Gettelman, A.; Kinnison, D. E.; Nakamura, T.; Oman, L. D.; Pawson, S.; Yamashita, Y.

    2010-08-01

    To understand how greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions may affect future stratospheric ozone, 21st century projections from four chemistry-climate models are examined for their dependence on six different GHG scenarios. Compared to higher GHG emissions, lower emissions result in smaller increases in tropical upwelling with resultant smaller reductions in ozone in the tropical lower stratosphere and less severe stratospheric cooling with resultant smaller increases in upper stratospheric ozone globally. Increases in reactive nitrogen and hydrogen that lead to additional chemical ozone destruction mainly play a role in scenarios with higher GHG emissions. Differences among the six GHG scenarios are found to be largest over northern midlatitudes (˜20 DU by 2100) and in the Arctic (˜40 DU by 2100) with divergence mainly in the second half of the 21st century. The uncertainty in the return of stratospheric column ozone to 1980 values arising from different GHG scenarios is comparable to or less than the uncertainty that arises from model differences in the larger set of 17 CCMVal-2 SRES A1B simulations. The results suggest that effects of GHG emissions on future stratospheric ozone should be considered in climate change mitigation policy and ozone projections should be assessed under more than a single GHG scenario.

  20. E-maintenance Scenarios Based on Augmented Reality Software Architecture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Benbelkacem, S.; Zenati-Henda, N.; Belhocine, M.

    2008-06-01

    This paper presents architecture of augmented reality for e-maintenance application. In our case, the aim is not to develop a vision system based on augmented reality concept, but to show the relationship between the different actors in the proposed architecture and to facilitate maintenance of the machine. This architecture allows implementing different scenarios which give to the technician possibilities to intervene on a breakdown device with a distant expert help. Each scenario is established according to machine parameters and technician competences. In our case, a hardware platform is designed to carry out e-maintenance scenarios. An example of e-maintenance scenario is then presented.

  1. A future without health? Health dimension in global scenario studies.

    PubMed Central

    Martens, Pim; Huynen, Maud

    2003-01-01

    This paper reviews the health dimension and sociocultural, economic, and ecological determinants of health in existing global scenario studies. Not even half of the 31 scenarios reviewed gave a good description of future health developments and the different scenario studies did not handle health in a consistent way. Most of the global driving forces of health are addressed adequately in the selected scenarios, however, and it therefore would have been possible to describe the future developments in health as an outcome of these multiple driving forces. To provide examples on how future health can be incorporated in existing scenarios, we linked the sociocultural, economic, and environmental developments described in three sets of scenarios (special report on emission scenarios (SRES), global environmental outlook-3 (GEO3), and world water scenarios (WWS)) to three potential, but imaginary, health futures ("age of emerging infectious diseases", "age of medical technology", and "age of sustained health"). This paper provides useful insights into how to deal with future health in scenarios and shows that a comprehensive picture of future health evolves when all important driving forces and pressures are taken into account. PMID:14997242

  2. China's sustainable energy future: Scenarios of energy and carbonemissions (Summary)

    SciTech Connect

    Zhou, Dadi; Levine, Mark; Dai, Yande; Yu, Cong; Guo, Yuan; Sinton, Jonathan E.; Lewis, Joanna I.; Zhu, Yuezhong

    2004-03-10

    thatfuture economic growth may be supported by a relatively lower increase inenergy consumption. Over the past 20 years, energy intensity in China hasbeen reduced partly through technological and structural changes; currentannual emissions may be as much as 600 Mt-C lower than they would havebeen without intensity improvements. China must take into account itsunique circumstances in considering how to achieve a sustainabledevelopment path. This study considers the feasibility of such anachievement, while remaining open to exploring avenues of sustainabledevelopment that may be very different from existing models. Threescenarios were prepared to assist the Chinese Government to explore theissues, options and uncertainties that it confronts in shaping asustainable development path compatible with China's uniquecircumstances. The Promoting Sustainability scenario offers a systematicand complete interpretation of the social and economic goals proposed inthe Tenth Five-Year Plan. The possibility that environmentalsustainability would receive low priority is covered in the OrdinaryEffort scenario. Aggressive pursuit of sustainable development measuresalong with rapid economic expansion is featured in the Green Growthscenario. The scenarios differ in the degree to which a common set ofenergy supply and efficiency policies are implemented. In cons ultationwith technology and policy experts domestically and abroad, ERI developedstrategic scenarios and quantified them using an energy accounting model.The scenarios consider, in unprecedented detail, changes in energy demandstructure and technology, as well as energy supply, from 1998 to 2020.The scenarios in this study are an important step in estimating realistictargets for energy efficiency and energy supply development that are inline with a sustainable development strategy. The scenarios also helpanalyze and explore ways in which China might slow growth in greenhousegas emissions. The key results have important policy implications

  3. Energy sector water use implications of a 2 °C climate policy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fricko, Oliver; Parkinson, Simon C.; Johnson, Nils; Strubegger, Manfred; van Vliet, Michelle TH; Riahi, Keywan

    2016-03-01

    Quantifying water implications of energy transitions is important for assessing long-term freshwater sustainability since large volumes of water are currently used throughout the energy sector. In this paper, we assess direct global energy sector water use and thermal water pollution across a broad range of energy system transformation pathways to assess water impacts of a 2 °C climate policy. A global integrated assessment model is equipped with the capabilities to account for the water impacts of technologies located throughout the energy supply chain. The model framework is applied across a broad range of 2 °C scenarios to highlight long-term water impact uncertainties over the 21st century. We find that water implications vary significantly across scenarios, and that adaptation in power plant cooling technology can considerably reduce global freshwater withdrawals and thermal pollution. Global freshwater consumption increases across all of the investigated 2 °C scenarios as a result of rapidly expanding electricity demand in developing regions and the prevalence of freshwater-cooled thermal power generation. Reducing energy demand emerges as a robust strategy for water conservation, and enables increased technological flexibility on the supply side to fulfill ambitious climate objectives. The results underscore the importance of an integrated approach when developing water, energy, and climate policy, especially in regions where rapid growth in both energy and water demands is anticipated.

  4. Culture, and a Metrics Methodology for Biological Countermeasure Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Simpson, Mary J.

    2007-03-15

    Outcome Metrics Methodology defines a way to evaluate outcome metrics associated with scenario analyses related to biological countermeasures. Previous work developed a schema to allow evaluation of common elements of impacts across a wide range of potential threats and scenarios. Classes of metrics were identified that could be used by decision makers to differentiate the common bases among disparate scenarios. Typical impact metrics used in risk calculations include the anticipated number of deaths, casualties, and the direct economic costs should a given event occur. There are less obvious metrics that are often as important and require more intensive initial work to be incorporated. This study defines a methodology for quantifying, evaluating, and ranking metrics other than direct health and economic impacts. As has been observed with the consequences of Hurricane Katrina, impacts to the culture of specific sectors of society are less obvious on an immediate basis but equally important over the ensuing and long term. Culture is used as the example class of metrics within which • requirements for a methodology are explored • likely methodologies are examined • underlying assumptions for the respective methodologies are discussed • the basis for recommending a specific methodology is demonstrated. Culture, as a class of metrics, is shown to consist of political, sociological, and psychological elements that are highly valued by decision makers. In addition, cultural practices, dimensions, and kinds of knowledge offer complementary sets of information that contribute to the context within which experts can provide input. The quantification and evaluation of sociopolitical, socio-economic, and sociotechnical impacts depend predominantly on subjective, expert judgment. Epidemiological data is limited, resulting in samples with statistical limits. Dose response assessments and curves depend on the quality of data and its relevance to human modes of exposure

  5. ITER Scenario Performance Simulations Assessing Control and Vertical Stability

    SciTech Connect

    Casper, T; Ferron, J; Humphreys, D; Jackson, G; Leuer, J; LoDestro, L; Luce, T; Meyer, W; Pearlstein, L; Welander, A

    2008-05-20

    In simulating reference scenarios proposed for ITER operation, we also explore performance of the poloidal field (PF) and central solenoid (CS) coil systems using a controller to maintain plasma shape and vertical stability during the discharge evolution. We employ a combination of techniques to evaluate system constraints and stability using time-dependent transport simulations of ITER discharges. We have begun the process of benchmarking these simulations with experiments on the DIII-D tokamak. Simulations include startup on the outside limiter, X-point formation and current ramp up to full power, plasma burn conditions at 15MA and 17MA, and ramp down at the end of the pulse. We also simulate perturbative events such as H-to-L back transitions. Our results indicate the viability of proposed ITER operating modes.

  6. Vaccination Strategies: a comparative study in an epidemic scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prates, D. B.; Jardim, C. L. T. F.; Ferreira, L. A. F.; da Silva, J. M.; Kritz, M. V.

    2016-08-01

    Epidemics are an extremely important matter of study within the Mathematical Modeling area and can be widely found in the literature. Some epidemiological models use differential equations, which are very sensible to parameters, to represent and describe the diseases mathematically. For this work, a variation of the SIR model is discussed and applied to a certain epidemic scenario, wherein vaccination is introduced through two different strategies: constant vaccination and vaccination in pulses. Other epidemiological and population aspects are also considered, such as mortality/natality and infection rates. The analysis and results are performed through numerical solutions of the model and a special attention is given to the discussion generated by the paramenters variation.

  7. Future scenarios of impacts to ecosystem services on California rangelands

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Byrd, Kristin; Alvarez, Pelayo; Flint, Lorraine; Flint, Alan

    2014-01-01

    The 18 million acres of rangelands in the Central Valley of California provide multiple benefits or “ecosystem services” to people—including wildlife habitat, water supply, open space, recreation, and cultural resources. Most of this land is privately owned and managed for livestock production. These rangelands are vulnerable to land-use conversion and climate change. To help resource managers assess the impacts of land-use change and climate change, U.S. Geological Survey scientists and their cooperators developed scenarios to quantify and map changes to three main rangeland ecosystem services—wildlife habitat, water supply, and carbon sequestration. Project results will help prioritize strategies to conserve these rangelands and the ecosystem services that they provide.

  8. Benchmarking of computer codes and approaches for modeling exposure scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Seitz, R.R.; Rittmann, P.D.; Wood, M.I.; Cook, J.R.

    1994-08-01

    The US Department of Energy Headquarters established a performance assessment task team (PATT) to integrate the activities of DOE sites that are preparing performance assessments for the disposal of newly generated low-level waste. The PATT chartered a subteam with the task of comparing computer codes and exposure scenarios used for dose calculations in performance assessments. This report documents the efforts of the subteam. Computer codes considered in the comparison include GENII, PATHRAE-EPA, MICROSHIELD, and ISOSHLD. Calculations were also conducted using spreadsheets to provide a comparison at the most fundamental level. Calculations and modeling approaches are compared for unit radionuclide concentrations in water and soil for the ingestion, inhalation, and external dose pathways. Over 30 tables comparing inputs and results are provided.

  9. Nuclear power for the future: Implications of some crisis scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Turner, K.H.

    1996-12-31

    As energy issues have dropped from public awareness, electricity demand growth has remained low, deregulation has destabilized the utility decision process, and least-cost regulation has pointed utilities to gas-fired plants for those additions that are coming on-line, the nuclear power industry has begun to ask the question: What will cause nuclear energy to again compete as an option in new, domestic generating capacity additions? Since virtually all of today`s corporate and societal decisions are driven by short-term factors, the preceding question can be translated into: What crisis might occur that would project nuclear as the solution to an immediately perceived problem? Thus, an examination of scenarios that would project nuclear power into the country`s immediate consciousness is in order, along with an analysis of the implications for and challenges to the nuclear industry resulting therefrom. This paper undertakes such an analysis.

  10. Modelling of pulsed and steady-state DEMO scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giruzzi, G.; Artaud, J. F.; Baruzzo, M.; Bolzonella, T.; Fable, E.; Garzotti, L.; Ivanova-Stanik, I.; Kemp, R.; King, D. B.; Schneider, M.; Stankiewicz, R.; Stępniewski, W.; Vincenzi, P.; Ward, D.; Zagórski, R.

    2015-07-01

    Scenario modelling for the demonstration fusion reactor (DEMO) has been carried out using a variety of simulation codes. Two DEMO concepts have been analysed: a pulsed tokamak, characterized by rather conventional physics and technology assumptions (DEMO1) and a steady-state tokamak, with moderately advanced physics and technology assumptions (DEMO2). Sensitivity to impurity concentrations, radiation, and heat transport models has been investigated. For DEMO2, the impact of current driven non-inductively by neutral beams has been studied by full Monte Carlo simulations of the fast ion distribution. The results obtained are a part of a more extensive research and development (R&D) effort carried out in the EU in order to develop a viable option for a DEMO reactor, to be adopted after ITER for fusion energy research.

  11. Scenarios for Evolving Seismic Crises: Possible Communication Strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steacy, S.

    2015-12-01

    Recent advances in operational earthquake forecasting mean that we are very close to being able to confidently compute changes in earthquake probability as seismic crises develop. For instance, we now have statistical models such as ETAS and STEP which demonstrate considerable skill in forecasting earthquake rates and recent advances in Coulomb based models are also showing much promise. Communicating changes in earthquake probability is likely be very difficult, however, as the absolute probability of a damaging event is likely to remain quite small despite a significant increase in the relative value. Here, we use a hybrid Coulomb/statistical model to compute probability changes for a series of earthquake scenarios in New Zealand. We discuss the strengths and limitations of the forecasts and suggest a number of possible mechanisms that might be used to communicate results in an actual developing seismic crisis.

  12. Accelerator Disaster Scenarios, the Unabomber, and Scientific Risks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kapusta, Joseph I.

    2008-06-01

    The possibility that experiments at high-energy accelerators could create new forms of matter that would ultimately destroy the Earth has been considered several times in the past quarter century. One consequence of the earliest of these disaster scenarios was that the authors of a 1993 article in "Physics Today" who reviewed the experiments that had been carried out at the Bevalac at Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory were placed on the FBI's Unabomber watch list. Later, concerns that experiments at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider at Brookhaven National Laboratory might create mini black holes or nuggets of stable strange quark matter resulted in a flurry of articles in the popular press. I discuss this history, as well as Richard A. Posner's provocative analysis and recommendations on how to deal with such scientific risks. I conclude that better communication between scientists and nonscientists would serve to assuage unreasonable fears and focus attention on truly serious potential threats to humankind.

  13. Inflation in a two 3-form fields scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Kumar, K. Sravan; Marto, J.; Moniz, P. Vargas; Nunes, Nelson J. E-mail: jmarto@ubi.pt E-mail: pmoniz@ubi.pt

    2014-06-01

    A setting constituted by N 3-form fields, without any direct interaction between them, minimally coupled to gravity, is introduced in this paper as a framework to study the early evolution of the universe. We focus particularly on the two 3-forms case. An inflationary scenario is found, emerging from the coupling to gravity. More concretely, the fields coupled in this manner exhibit a complex interaction, mediated by the time derivative of the Hubble parameter. Our investigation is supported by means of a suitable choice of potentials, employing numerical methods and analytical approximations. In more detail, the oscillations on the small field limit become correlated, and one field is intertwined with the other. In this type of solution, a varying sound speed is present, together with the generation of isocurvature perturbations. The mentioned features allow to consider an interesting model, to test against observation. It is subsequently shown how our results are consistent with current CMB data (viz.Planck and BICEP2)

  14. Thermal effects and sudden decay approximation in the curvaton scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Kitajima, Naoya; Takesako, Tomohiro; Yokoyama, Shuichiro; Langlois, David; Takahashi, Tomo E-mail: langlois@apc.univ-paris7.fr E-mail: takesako@icrr.u-tokyo.ac.jp

    2014-10-01

    We study the impact of a temperature-dependent curvaton decay rate on the primordial curvature perturbation generated in the curvaton scenario. Using the familiar sudden decay approximation, we obtain an analytical expression for the curvature perturbation after the decay of the curvaton. We then investigate numerically the evolution of the background and of the perturbations during the decay. We first show that the instantaneous transfer coefficient, related to the curvaton energy fraction at the decay, can be extended into a more general parameter, which depends on the net transfer of the curvaton energy into radiation energy or, equivalently, on the total entropy ratio after the complete curvaton decay. We then compute the curvature perturbation and compare this result with the sudden decay approximation prediction.

  15. Gene flow scenarios with transgenic maize in Mexico.

    PubMed

    Serratos-Hernández, José-Antonio; Islas-Gutiérrez, Fabián; Buendía-Rodríguez, Enrique; Berthaud, Julien

    2004-01-01

    Maize diversity is widespread in Mexico and it has been stewarded by campesinos in small communities until the present. With the arrival of transgenic maize, the objective of this study is to analyze possible scenarios that could result if genetically modified maize were not regulated and openly available in Mexico. By applying a simple logistic model based on the conditions of maize production in Mexico, the dispersion of transgenic maize in different situations within fields of farmers is described. In traditional open systems of freely exchanged seed within communities it is concluded that the most likely outcome of GM maize release is the incorporation of transgenes in the genome of Mexican germplasm and possibly in that of teosinte.

  16. Hantavirus reservoir Oligoryzomys longicaudatus spatial distribution sensitivity to climate change scenarios in Argentine Patagonia

    PubMed Central

    Carbajo, Aníbal E; Vera, Carolina; González, Paula LM

    2009-01-01

    Background Oligoryzomys longicaudatus (colilargo) is the rodent responsible for hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) in Argentine Patagonia. In past decades (1967–1998), trends of precipitation reduction and surface air temperature increase have been observed in western Patagonia. We explore how the potential distribution of the hantavirus reservoir would change under different climate change scenarios based on the observed trends. Methods Four scenarios of potential climate change were constructed using temperature and precipitation changes observed in Argentine Patagonia between 1967 and 1998: Scenario 1 assumed no change in precipitation but a temperature trend as observed; scenario 2 assumed no changes in temperature but a precipitation trend as observed; Scenario 3 included changes in both temperature and precipitation trends as observed; Scenario 4 assumed changes in both temperature and precipitation trends as observed but doubled. We used a validated spatial distribution model of O. longicaudatus as a function of temperature and precipitation. From the model probability of the rodent presence was calculated for each scenario. Results If changes in precipitation follow previous trends, the probability of the colilargo presence would fall in the HPS transmission zone of northern Patagonia. If temperature and precipitation trends remain at current levels for 60 years or double in the future 30 years, the probability of the rodent presence and the associated total area of potential distribution would diminish throughout Patagonia; the areas of potential distribution for colilargos would shift eastwards. These results suggest that future changes in Patagonia climate may lower transmission risk through a reduction in the potential distribution of the rodent reservoir. Conclusion According to our model the rates of temperature and precipitation changes observed between 1967 and 1998 may produce significant changes in the rodent distribution in an equivalent

  17. Testing inflation and curvaton scenarios with CMB distortions

    SciTech Connect

    Clesse, Sébastien; Garbrecht, Björn; Zhu, Yi E-mail: garbrecht@tum.de

    2014-10-01

    Prior to recombination, Silk damping causes the dissipation of energy from acoustic waves into the monopole of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB), resulting in spectral distortions. These can be used to probe the primordial scalar power spectrum on smaller scales than it is possible with CMB anisotropies. An enhancement of power on these scales is nevertheless required for the resulting distortions to be detectable by future experiments like PIXIE. In this paper, we examine all 49 single-field inflation models listed by Martin et al. in the Encyclopaedia Inflationaris [1] and find that only one of these may lead to a detectable level of distortions in a tuned region of its parameter space, namely the original hybrid model. Three effective multi-field scenarios are also studied: with softly and suddenly turning trajectories, and with a mild waterfall trajectory. Softly turning trajectories do not induce distortions at any detectable level, whereas a sudden turn in the field space or a mild waterfall trajectory predicts a peak (plus damped oscillations in the sudden turn case) in the scalar power spectrum, which can lead to an observable amount of CMB distortions. Finally, another scenario leading to potentially detectable distortions involves a curvaton whose blue spectrum is subdominant on CMB angular scales and overtakes the inflaton spectrum on smaller scales. In this case however, we show that the bounds from ultra compact minihaloes are not satisfied. Expectations for an ultimate PRISM-class experiment characterized by an improvement in sensitivity by a factor of ten are discussed for some models.

  18. Analysis of five simulated straw harvest scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Sokhansanj, Shahabaddine; Turhollow Jr, Anthony F; Stephen, Jamie; Stumborg, Mark; Fenton, James; Mani, Sudhagar

    2008-01-01

    Almost 36 million tonnes (t) of cereal grains are harvested annually on more than 16 million hectares (ha) in Canada. The net straw production varies year by year depending upon weather patterns, crop fertility, soil conservation measures, harvest method, and plant variety. The net yield of straw, after discounting for soil conservation, averages approximately 2.5 dry (d)t ha-1. Efficient equipment is needed to collect and package the material as a feedstock for industrial applications. This paper investigates the costs, energy input, and emissions from power equipment used for harvesting straw. Five scenarios were investigated: (1) large square bales, (2) round bales, (3) large compacted stacks (loafs), (4) dried chops, and (5) wet chops. The baled or loafed biomass is stacked next to the farm. Dry chop is collected in a large pile and wet chop is ensiled. The baling and stacking cost was $21.47 dt-1 (dry tonne), with little difference between round and large square baling. Loafing was the cheapest option at $17.08 dt-1. Dry chop and piling was $23.90 dt-1 and wet chop followed by ensiling was $59.75 dt-1. A significant portion of the wet chop cost was in ensiling. Energy input and emissions were proportional to the costs for each system, except for loafing, which required more energy input than the baling systems. As a fraction of the energy content of biomass (roughly 16 GJ dt-1), the energy input ranged from 1.2% for baling to 3.2% for ensiling. Emissions from the power equipment ranged from 20.3 kg CO2e dt-1 to more than 40 kg CO2e dt-1. A sensitivity analysis on the effect of yield on collection costs showed that a 33% increase in yield reduced the cost by 20%. Similarly a sensitivity analysis on weather conditions showed that a 10oC cooler climate extended the harvest period by 5-10 days whereas a 10oC warmer climate shortened the harvest period by 2-3 days.

  19. Run scenarios for the linear collider

    SciTech Connect

    M. Battaglia et al.

    2002-12-23

    We have examined how a Linear Collider program of 1000 fb{sup -1} could be constructed in the case that a very rich program of new physics is accessible at {radical}s {le} 500 GeV. We have examined possible run plans that would allow the measurement of the parameters of a 120 GeV Higgs boson, the top quark, and could give information on the sparticle masses in SUSY scenarios in which many states are accessible. We find that the construction of the run plan (the specific energies for collider operation, the mix of initial state electron polarization states, and the use of special e{sup -}e{sup -} runs) will depend quite sensitively on the specifics of the supersymmetry model, as the decay channels open to particular sparticles vary drastically and discontinuously as the underlying SUSY model parameters are varied. We have explored this dependence somewhat by considering two rather closely related SUSY model points. We have called for operation at a high energy to study kinematic end points, followed by runs in the vicinity of several two body production thresholds once their location is determined by the end point studies. For our benchmarks, the end point runs are capable of disentangling most sparticle states through the use of specific final states and beam polarizations. The estimated sparticle mass precisions, combined from end point and scan data, are given in Table VIII and the corresponding estimates for the mSUGRA parameters are in Table IX. The precision for the Higgs boson mass, width, cross-sections, branching ratios and couplings are given in Table X. The errors on the top quark mass and width are expected to be dominated by the systematic limits imposed by QCD non-perturbative effects. The run plan devotes at least two thirds of the accumulated luminosity near the maximum LC energy, so that the program would be sensitive to unexpected new phenomena at high mass scales. We conclude that with a 1 ab{sup -1} program, expected to take the first 6-7 years

  20. Comprehensive update on cancer scenario of Bangladesh

    PubMed Central

    Hussain, Syed Md Akram

    2013-01-01

    programs have taken place for early detection of breast, cervical and oral cancer by Bangladesh Government and NGOs such as ICDDR’B, BRAC, Ahsania Mission Cancer Hospital, BSMMU, Bangladesh Cancer Society, Ashic Foundation, Amader Gram, AK Khan Healthcare Trust, CANSUP, Oncology club etc. Piloting of cervical cancer vaccination has recently been completed. Improving the cancer scenario overnight is not an easy task but policy makers may become interested and push this agenda forward, if the huge health impact and economic loss caused by cancer become evident to them. Besides, Bangladesh has accepted reduction of cancer morbidity and mortality targets set by United Nations and World Health Organization as a part of global non-communicable disease prevention agreement. PMID:24455659

  1. Simulation of water-use conservation scenarios for the Mississippi Delta using an existing regional groundwater flow model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Barlow, Jeannie R.B.; Clark, Brian R.

    2011-01-01

    The Mississippi River alluvial plain in northwestern Mississippi (referred to as the Delta), once a floodplain to the Mississippi River covered with hardwoods and marshland, is now a highly productive agricultural region of large economic importance to Mississippi. Water for irrigation is supplied primarily by the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer, and although the alluvial aquifer has a large reserve, there is evidence that the current rate of water use from the alluvial aquifer is not sustainable. Using an existing regional groundwater flow model, conservation scenarios were developed for the alluvial aquifer underlying the Delta region in northwestern Mississippi to assess where the implementation of water-use conservation efforts would have the greatest effect on future water availability-either uniformly throughout the Delta, or focused on a cone of depression in the alluvial aquifer underlying the central part of the Delta. Five scenarios were simulated with the Mississippi Embayment Regional Aquifer Study groundwater flow model: (1) a base scenario in which water use remained constant at 2007 rates throughout the entire simulation; (2) a 5-percent 'Delta-wide' conservation scenario in which water use across the Delta was decreased by 5 percent; (3) a 5-percent 'cone-equivalent' conservation scenario in which water use within the area of the cone of depression was decreased by 11 percent (a volume equivalent to the 5-percent Delta-wide conservation scenario); (4) a 25-percent Delta-wide conservation scenario in which water use across the Delta was decreased by 25 percent; and (5) a 25-percent cone-equivalent conservation scenario in which water use within the area of the cone of depression was decreased by 55 percent (a volume equivalent to the 25-percent Delta-wide conservation scenario). The Delta-wide scenarios result in greater average water-level improvements (relative to the base scenario) for the entire Delta area than the cone

  2. Deployment Effects of Marine Renewable Energy Technologies: Wave Energy Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Mirko Previsic

    2010-06-17

    other project teams funded by DoE which are focused on regulatory issues (Pacific Energy Ventures) and navigational issues (PCCI). The results of this study are structured into three reports: (1) Wave power scenario description (2) Tidal power scenario description (3) Framework for Identifying Key Environmental Concerns This is the first report in the sequence and describes the results of conceptual feasibility studies of wave power plants deployed in Humboldt County, California and Oahu, Hawaii. These two sites contain many of the same competing stakeholder interactions identified at other wave power sites in the U.S. and serve as representative case studies. Wave power remains at an early stage of development. As such, a wide range of different technologies are being pursued by different manufacturers. In order to properly characterize potential effects, it is useful to characterize the range of technologies that could be deployed at the site of interest. An industry survey informed the process of selecting representative wave power devices. The selection criteria requires that devices are at an advanced stage of development to reduce technical uncertainties, and that enough data are available from the manufacturers to inform the conceptual design process of this study. Further, an attempt is made to cover the range of different technologies under development to capture variations in potential environmental effects. Table 1 summarizes the selected wave power technologies. A number of other developers are also at an advanced stage of development, but are not directly mentioned here. Many environmental effects will largely scale with the size of the wave power plant. In many cases, the effects of a single device may not be measurable, while larger scale device arrays may have cumulative impacts that differ significantly from smaller scale deployments. In order to characterize these effects, scenarios are established at three deployment scales which nominally represent

  3. Spatially explicit land-use and land-cover scenarios for the Great Plains of the United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sohl, Terry L.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sayler, Kristi L.; Bouchard, Michelle A.; Reker, Ryan R.; Bennett, Stacie L.; Sleeter, Rachel R.; Kanengieter, Ronald L.; Zhu, Zhi-Liang

    2012-01-01

    The Great Plains of the United States has undergone extensive land-use and land-cover change in the past 150 years, with much of the once vast native grasslands and wetlands converted to agricultural crops, and much of the unbroken prairie now heavily grazed. Future land-use change in the region could have dramatic impacts on ecological resources and processes. A scenario-based modeling framework is needed to support the analysis of potential land-use change in an uncertain future, and to mitigate potentially negative future impacts on ecosystem processes. We developed a scenario-based modeling framework to analyze potential future land-use change in the Great Plains. A unique scenario construction process, using an integrated modeling framework, historical data, workshops, and expert knowledge, was used to develop quantitative demand for future land-use change for four IPCC scenarios at the ecoregion level. The FORE-SCE model ingested the scenario information and produced spatially explicit land-use maps for the region at relatively fine spatial and thematic resolutions. Spatial modeling of the four scenarios provided spatial patterns of land-use change consistent with underlying assumptions and processes associated with each scenario. Economically oriented scenarios were characterized by significant loss of natural land covers and expansion of agricultural and urban land uses. Environmentally oriented scenarios experienced modest declines in natural land covers to slight increases. Model results were assessed for quantity and allocation disagreement between each scenario pair. In conjunction with the U.S. Geological Survey's Biological Carbon Sequestration project, the scenario-based modeling framework used for the Great Plains is now being applied to the entire United States.

  4. Rainfall and temperatures changes have confounding impacts on Phytophthora cinnamomi occurrence risk in the southwestern USA under climate change scenarios.

    PubMed

    Thompson, Sally E; Levin, Simon; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio

    2014-04-01

    Global change will simultaneously impact many aspects of climate, with the potential to exacerbate the risks posed by plant pathogens to agriculture and the natural environment; yet, most studies that explore climate impacts on plant pathogen ranges consider individual climatic factors separately. In this study, we adopt a stochastic modeling approach to address multiple pathways by which climate can constrain the range of the generalist plant pathogen Phytophthora cinnamomi (Pc): through changing winter soil temperatures affecting pathogen survival; spring soil temperatures and thus pathogen metabolic rates; and changing spring soil moisture conditions and thus pathogen growth rates through host root systems. We apply this model to the southwestern USA for contemporary and plausible future climate scenarios and evaluate the changes in the potential range of Pc. The results indic