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Sample records for ablation predicts outcome

  1. Planning Irreversible Electroporation in the Porcine Kidney: Are Numerical Simulations Reliable for Predicting Empiric Ablation Outcomes?

    SciTech Connect

    Wimmer, Thomas Srimathveeravalli, Govindarajan; Gutta, Narendra; Ezell, Paula C.; Monette, Sebastien; Maybody, Majid; Erinjery, Joseph P.; Durack, Jeremy C.; Coleman, Jonathan A.; Solomon, Stephen B.

    2015-02-15

    PurposeNumerical simulations are used for treatment planning in clinical applications of irreversible electroporation (IRE) to determine ablation size and shape. To assess the reliability of simulations for treatment planning, we compared simulation results with empiric outcomes of renal IRE using computed tomography (CT) and histology in an animal model.MethodsThe ablation size and shape for six different IRE parameter sets (70–90 pulses, 2,000–2,700 V, 70–100 µs) for monopolar and bipolar electrodes was simulated using a numerical model. Employing these treatment parameters, 35 CT-guided IRE ablations were created in both kidneys of six pigs and followed up with CT immediately and after 24 h. Histopathology was analyzed from postablation day 1.ResultsAblation zones on CT measured 81 ± 18 % (day 0, p ≤ 0.05) and 115 ± 18 % (day 1, p ≤ 0.09) of the simulated size for monopolar electrodes, and 190 ± 33 % (day 0, p ≤ 0.001) and 234 ± 12 % (day 1, p ≤ 0.0001) for bipolar electrodes. Histopathology indicated smaller ablation zones than simulated (71 ± 41 %, p ≤ 0.047) and measured on CT (47 ± 16 %, p ≤ 0.005) with complete ablation of kidney parenchyma within the central zone and incomplete ablation in the periphery.ConclusionBoth numerical simulations for planning renal IRE and CT measurements may overestimate the size of ablation compared to histology, and ablation effects may be incomplete in the periphery.

  2. Empirical mode decomposition of multiple ECG leads for catheter ablation long-term outcome prediction in persistent atrial fibrillation.

    PubMed

    Hidalgo-Munoz, Antonio R; Tome, Ana M; Latcu, Decebal G; Zarzoso, Vicente

    2015-01-01

    Predictive models arouse increasing interest in clinical practice, not only to improve successful intervention rates but also to extract information of diverse physiological disorders. This is the case of persistent atrial fibrillation (AF), the most common cardiac arrhythmia in adults. Currently, catheter ablation (CA) is one of the preferred therapies to face this disease. However, selecting the best responders to CA by standard noninvasive techniques such as the electrocardiogram (ECG) remains a challenge. This work presents different predictive models for determining long-term CA outcome based on the dominant frequency (DF) of atrial activity measured in the ECG. The ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) is employed to obtain the intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) composing the ECG signal in each lead. The IMF DFs computed in multiple leads are then combined into a logistic regression (LR) model. The IMF DF features are discriminant enough to reach 79% accuracy for long-term CA outcome prediction, outperforming other methods based on DF computation. Our study shows EEMD as a valuable alternative to extract clinically relevant spectral information from AF ECGs and confirms the advantage of LR to build multivariate predictive models as compared with univariate analysis.

  3. Atrial Fibrillation Ablation in Systolic Dysfunction: Clinical and Echocardiographic Outcomes

    PubMed Central

    Lobo, Tasso Julio; Pachon, Carlos Thiene; Pachon, Jose Carlos; Pachon, Enrique Indalecio; Pachon, Maria Zelia; Pachon, Juan Carlos; Santillana, Tomas Guillermo; Zerpa, Juan Carlos; Albornoz, Remy Nelson; Jatene, Adib Domingos

    2015-01-01

    Background Heart failure and atrial fibrillation (AF) often coexist in a deleterious cycle. Objective To evaluate the clinical and echocardiographic outcomes of patients with ventricular systolic dysfunction and AF treated with radiofrequency (RF) ablation. Methods Patients with ventricular systolic dysfunction [ejection fraction (EF) <50%] and AF refractory to drug therapy underwent stepwise RF ablation in the same session with pulmonary vein isolation, ablation of AF nests and of residual atrial tachycardia, named "background tachycardia". Clinical (NYHA functional class) and echocardiographic (EF, left atrial diameter) data were compared (McNemar test and t test) before and after ablation. Results 31 patients (6 women, 25 men), aged 37 to 77 years (mean, 59.8±10.6), underwent RF ablation. The etiology was mainly idiopathic (19 p, 61%). During a mean follow-up of 20.3±17 months, 24 patients (77%) were in sinus rhythm, 11 (35%) being on amiodarone. Eight patients (26%) underwent more than one procedure (6 underwent 2 procedures, and 2 underwent 3 procedures). Significant NYHA functional class improvement was observed (pre-ablation: 2.23±0.56; postablation: 1.13±0.35; p<0.0001). The echocardiographic outcome also showed significant ventricular function improvement (EF pre: 44.68%±6.02%, post: 59%±13.2%, p=0.0005) and a significant left atrial diameter reduction (pre: 46.61±7.3 mm; post: 43.59±6.6 mm; p=0.026). No major complications occurred. Conclusion Our findings suggest that AF ablation in patients with ventricular systolic dysfunction is a safe and highly effective procedure. Arrhythmia control has a great impact on ventricular function recovery and functional class improvement. PMID:25387404

  4. Predicting asthma outcomes.

    PubMed

    Sears, Malcolm R

    2015-10-01

    This review addresses predictors of remission or persistence of wheezing and asthma from early childhood through adulthood. Early childhood wheezing is common, but predicting who will remit or have persistent childhood asthma remains difficult. By adding parental history of asthma and selected infant biomarkers to the history of recurrent wheezing, the Asthma Predictive Index and its subsequent modifications provide better predictions of persistence than simply the observation of recurrent wheeze. Sensitization, especially to multiple allergens, increases the likelihood of development of classic childhood asthma. Remission is more likely in male subjects and those with milder disease (less frequent and less severe symptoms), less atopic sensitization, a lesser degree of airway hyperresponsiveness, and no concomitant allergic disease. Conversely, persistence is linked strongly to allergic sensitization, greater frequency and severity of symptoms, abnormal lung function, and a greater degree of airway hyperresponsiveness. A genetic risk score might predict persistence more accurately than family history. Remission of established adult asthma is substantially less common than remission during childhood and adolescence. Loss of lung function can begin early in life and tracks through childhood and adolescence. Despite therapy which controls symptoms and exacerbations, the outcomes of asthma appear largely resistant to pharmacologic therapy.

  5. Predictive value of pyramidal lobe, percentage thyroid uptake and age for ablation outcome after 15 mCi fixed dose of radioiodine-131 in Graves’ disease

    PubMed Central

    Zaman, Maseeh uz; Fatima, Nosheen; Zaman, Unaiza; Sajjad, Zafar; Zaman, Areeba; Tahseen, Rabia

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose was to find out the efficacy of fixed 15 mCi radioactive iodine-131 (RAI) dose and predictive values of various factors for inducing hypothyroidism in Graves’ disease (GD). Materials and Methods: Retrospective study conducted from January 2012 till August 2014. Patients with GD who had a technetium-99m thyroid scan, thyroid antibodies, received fixed 15 mCi RAI and did follow endocrine clinics for at least 6 months were selected. RAI was considered successful if within 6 months of RAI therapy patients developed hypothyroidism. Results: Of the 370 patients with GD who had RAI during study period, 210 (57%) qualified study criteria. Mean age of patients was 48 ± 15 years with female: male ratio of 69:31, positive thyroid antibodies in 61%, means thyroid uptake of 15.09 ± 11.23%, and presence of pyramidal lobe in 40% of total population. Hypothyroidism was achieved in 161 (77%) patients while 49 (23%) patients failed to achieve it (remained either hyperthyroid or euthyroid on antithyroid medication). Patients who became hypothyroid were significantly younger with higher proportion of presence of thyroid antibodies and pyramidal lobe and lower percentage thyroid uptake than those who failed. Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that age (odds ratio; OR = 2.074), pyramidal lobe (OR = 3.317), thyroid antibodies (OR = 8.198), and percentage thyroid uptake (OR = 3.043) were found to be significant prognostic risk factors for post-RAI hypothyroidism. Gender was found to have nonsignificant association with the development of hypothyroidism. Receiver operating characteristic analysis revealed age <42 years and thyroid uptake <15% as threshold values for the development of post-RAI hypothyroidism. Conclusion: We conclude that fixed (15 mCi) RAI dose is highly effective in rendering hypothyroidism in patients with GD. Age (≤42 years), thyroid uptake (≤15%) and presence of pyramidal lobe are strong predictors of hypothyroidism and must be

  6. Prediction of Primary Slow-Pathway Ablation Success Rate according to the Characteristics of Junctional Rhythm Developed during the Radiofrequency Catheter Ablation of Atrioventricular Nodal Reentrant Tachycardia

    PubMed Central

    Bagherzadeh, Ataallah; Rezaee, Mohammad Esmaeel; Farahani, Maryam Moshkani

    2011-01-01

    Background Nowadays, developed junctional rhythm (JR) that occurs during slow-pathway radiofrequency (RF) catheter ablation of atrioventricular nodal reentrant tachycardia (AVNRT) has been focused upon as a highly sensitive surrogate end point for successful radiofrequency ablation. This study was conducted to assess the relationship between the presence and pattern of developed JR during the RF ablation of AVNRT and a successful outcome. Methods Seventy-five patients aged between 14 and 88 who underwent slow-pathway RF ablation due to symptomatic AVNRT were enrolled into the study and received a total of 162 RF energy applications. Combined anatomic and electrogram mapping approach was used for slow-pathway RF ablation. The ablation procedure consisted of 60-second, 60 °C temperature-controlled energy delivery. After each ablation pulse, successful ablation was assessed according to the loss of AVNRT inducibility via isoproterenol infusion. Four different patterns were considered for the developed JR, namely sparse, intermittent, continuous, and transient block. Success ablation rate was assessed with respect to the position, pattern, and number of junctional beats. Results Successful RF ablation with a loss of AVNRT inducibility was achieved in 43 (57.3%) patients using 119 RF energy applications (73.5%). JR developed in 133 of the 162 (82.1%) applications with a given sensitivity of 90.8% and low specificity of 41.9% as an end point of successful RF ablation, with a negative predictive value of 62.1%. The mean number of the developed junctional beats was significantly higher in the successful ablations (p value < 0.001), and the ROC analysis revealed that the best cut-off point of the cumulative junctional beats for identifying accurate AVNRT ablation therapy is 14 beats with 90.76 % sensitivity and 90.70% specificity. There were no significant differences in terms of successful ablation rates according to the four different patterns of JR and its positions (p

  7. Predicting cancer outcome

    SciTech Connect

    Gardner, S N; Fernandes, M

    2005-03-24

    We read with interest the paper by Michiels et al on the prediction of cancer with microarrays and the commentary by Ioannidis listing the potential as well as the limitations of this approach (February 5, p 488 and 454). Cancer is a disease characterized by complex, heterogeneous mechanisms and studies to define factors that can direct new drug discovery and use should be encouraged. However, this is easier said than done. Casti teaches that a better understanding does not necessarily extrapolate to better prediction, and that useful prediction is possible without complete understanding (1). To attempt both, explanation and prediction, in a single nonmathematical construct, is a tall order (Figure 1).

  8. Percutaneous Ablation of the Small Renal Mass—Techniques and Outcomes

    PubMed Central

    Gunn, Andrew J.; Gervais, Debra A.

    2014-01-01

    An increasing number of T1a renal cell carcinomas are being diagnosed in recent years, in part due to incidental detection from the increased use of cross-sectional imaging. Although partial nephrectomy is still considered the primary treatment for these small renal masses, percutaneous ablation is now being performed as a standard therapeutic, nephron-sparing approach in patients who are poor surgical candidates. Clinical studies to date have demonstrated that percutaneous ablation is an effective therapy with acceptable outcomes and low risk in the appropriate clinical settings. This article will review various clinical aspects regarding the percutaneous ablation of small renal masses, including patient selection, preprocedural preparations, and the procedural considerations of commonly employed ablative technologies. Specific techniques such as radiofrequency ablation, cryoablation, microwave ablation, irreversible electroporation, and high-intensity focused ultrasound will be addressed in detail. In addition, the technical and oncologic outcomes of percutaneous ablation will be discussed and referenced to that of partial nephrectomy. PMID:24596438

  9. Predictive analysis of optical ablation in several dermatological tumoral tissues

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fanjul-Vélez, F.; Blanco-Gutiérrez, A.; Salas-García, I.; Ortega-Quijano, N.; Arce-Diego, J. L.

    2013-06-01

    Optical techniques for treatment and characterization of biological tissues are revolutionizing several branches of medical praxis, for example in ophthalmology or dermatology. The non-invasive, non-contact and non-ionizing character of optical radiation makes it specially suitable for these applications. Optical radiation can be employed in medical ablation applications, either for tissue resection or surgery. Optical ablation may provide a controlled and clean cut on a biological tissue. This is particularly relevant in tumoral tissue resection, where a small amount of cancerous cells could make the tumor appear again. A very important aspect of tissue optical ablation is then the estimation of the affected volume. In this work we propose a complete predictive model of tissue ablation that provides an estimation of the resected volume. The model is based on a Monte Carlo approach for the optical propagation of radiation inside the tissue, and a blow-off model for tissue ablation. This model is applied to several types of dermatological tumoral tissues, specifically squamous cells, basocellular and infiltrative carcinomas. The parameters of the optical source are varied and the estimated resected volume is calculated. The results for the different tumor types are presented and compared. This model can be used for surgical planning, in order to assure the complete resection of the tumoral tissue.

  10. Repeated Radiofrequency Ablation Combined With Ablated Lesion Elimination and Transarterial Chemoembolization Improves the Outcome of Solitary Huge Hepatocellular Carcinomas 10 cm or Larger

    PubMed Central

    Ke, Shan; Gao, Jun; Kong, Jian; Ding, Xue-Mei; Niu, Hai-Gang; Xin, Zong-Hai; Ning, Chun-Min; Guo, Shi-Gang; Li, Xiao-Long; Zhang, Long; Dong, Yong-Hong; Sun, Wen-Bing

    2016-01-01

    Abstract This study investigated the effectiveness of a new strategy, repeated radiofrequency (RF) ablation combined with ablated lesion elimination following transarterial chemoembolization (TACE)/transarterial embolization (TAE), for solitary huge hepatocellular carcinoma (SHHCC) 10 cm or larger. From July 2008 to October 2015, 39 consecutive patients with SHHCC were screened. Of these, 12 were treated with TACE/TAE and repeated RF ablation (TACE/TAE + RF ablation group) and the remaining 27 patients were treated with the aforementioned new strategy (new strategy group). Local tumor progression (LTP)-free survival, intrahepatic distant recurrence (IDR)-free survival, and overall survival (OS) rates were obtained using the Kaplan–Meier method. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed on several clinicopathological variables to identify factors affecting long-term outcome and intrahepatic recurrence. Correlation analysis was also performed. The 1-, 2-, and 3-year LTP-free survival rates and OS rates were significantly higher in the new strategy group than in the TACE/TAE + RF ablation group (82.9% vs 58.3%, 73.9% vs 29.2%, 18.5% vs 9.7%, P = 0.002; 92.0% vs 75.0%, 84.0% vs 33.3%, 32.7% vs 16.7%, P = 0.025). However, there was no significant difference between the 2 groups in the 1-, 2-, and 3-year IDR-free survival rates (P = 0.108). Using univariate analysis, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP > 200 ng/mL), ablative margin (AM > 1.0 cm), and well-differentiated cells were found to be significant factors for predicting LTP, IDR, and OS. Surgical elimination was found to be a significant factor only for predicting OS. In multivariate analyses, AFP (>200 ng/mL), AM (>1.0 cm), and well-differentiated cells were found to be significant independent factors linked to LTP, IDR, and OS. Correlation analysis indicated that AM > 1.0 cm was strongly associated with surgical elimination (P < 0.001, correlation coefficient = 0.877). For patients

  11. Microwave Ablation of Porcine Kidneys in vivo: Effect of two Different Ablation Modes ('Temperature Control' and 'Power Control') on Procedural Outcome

    SciTech Connect

    Sommer, C. M.; Arnegger, F.; Koch, V.; Pap, B.; Holzschuh, M.; Bellemann, N.; Gehrig, T.; Senft, J.; Nickel, F.; Mogler, C.; Zelzer, S.; Meinzer, H. P.; Stampfl, U.; Kauczor, H. U.; Radeleff, B. A.

    2012-06-15

    Purpose: This study was designed to analyze the effect of two different ablation modes ('temperature control' and 'power control') of a microwave system on procedural outcome in porcine kidneys in vivo. Methods: A commercially available microwave system (Avecure Microwave Generator; MedWaves, San Diego, CA) was used. The system offers the possibility to ablate with two different ablation modes: temperature control and power control. Thirty-two microwave ablations were performed in 16 kidneys of 8 pigs. In each animal, one kidney was ablated twice by applying temperature control (ablation duration set point at 60 s, ablation temperature set point at 96 Degree-Sign C, automatic power set point; group I). The other kidney was ablated twice by applying power control (ablation duration set point at 60 s, ablation temperature set point at 96 Degree-Sign C, ablation power set point at 24 W; group II). Procedural outcome was analyzed: (1) technical success (e.g., system failures, duration of the ablation cycle), and (2) ablation geometry (e.g., long axis diameter, short axis diameter, and circularity). Results: System failures occurred in 0% in group I and 13% in group II. Duration of the ablation cycle was 60 {+-} 0 s in group I and 102 {+-} 21 s in group II. Long axis diameter was 20.3 {+-} 4.6 mm in group I and 19.8 {+-} 3.5 mm in group II (not significant (NS)). Short axis diameter was 10.3 {+-} 2 mm in group I and 10.5 {+-} 2.4 mm in group II (NS). Circularity was 0.5 {+-} 0.1 in group I and 0.5 {+-} 0.1 in group II (NS). Conclusions: Microwave ablations performed with temperature control showed fewer system failures and were finished faster. Both ablation modes demonstrated no significant differences with respect to ablation geometry.

  12. Predicting outcomes: Sports and stocks.

    PubMed

    Wood, G

    1992-06-01

    Many gamblers and most fans, players, and coaches offer causal explanations for long runs of good or bad performance in sports and financial analysts are quick to offer explanations for the daily performance of the stock market. The records of professional basketball and baseball teams and the Dow Jones daily closing average for a ten year period were evaluated for trends (streaks). The records of teams were also evaluated to assess whether the record against opponents, the home court or home field advantage, and-for baseball teams-the record of the winning and losing pitcher (excluding the current game) predicted the outcome of individual games. Recent performance is, at best, a very weak predictor of current performance and the three best predictors for baseball (pitching, home field, and record against opponent) together accounted for only 1.7% of the variance in the outcomes of individual games. We overestimate our ability to predict. This overconfidence is likely to play a role in maintaining gambling behaviors. PMID:24241784

  13. Predicting outcomes: Sports and stocks.

    PubMed

    Wood, G

    1992-06-01

    Many gamblers and most fans, players, and coaches offer causal explanations for long runs of good or bad performance in sports and financial analysts are quick to offer explanations for the daily performance of the stock market. The records of professional basketball and baseball teams and the Dow Jones daily closing average for a ten year period were evaluated for trends (streaks). The records of teams were also evaluated to assess whether the record against opponents, the home court or home field advantage, and-for baseball teams-the record of the winning and losing pitcher (excluding the current game) predicted the outcome of individual games. Recent performance is, at best, a very weak predictor of current performance and the three best predictors for baseball (pitching, home field, and record against opponent) together accounted for only 1.7% of the variance in the outcomes of individual games. We overestimate our ability to predict. This overconfidence is likely to play a role in maintaining gambling behaviors.

  14. Healthcare Utilization and Clinical Outcomes after Catheter Ablation of Atrial Flutter

    PubMed Central

    Dewland, Thomas A.; Glidden, David V.; Marcus, Gregory M.

    2014-01-01

    Atrial flutter ablation is associated with a high rate of acute procedural success and symptom improvement. The relationship between ablation and other clinical outcomes has been limited to small studies primarily conducted at academic centers. We sought to determine if catheter ablation of atrial flutter is associated with reductions in healthcare utilization, atrial fibrillation, or stroke in a large, real world population. California Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project databases were used to identify patients undergoing atrial flutter ablation between 2005 and 2009. The adjusted association between atrial flutter ablation and healthcare utilization, atrial fibrillation, or stroke was investigated using Cox proportional hazards models. Among 33,004 patients with a diagnosis of atrial flutter observed for a median of 2.1 years, 2,733 (8.2%) underwent catheter ablation. Atrial flutter ablation significantly lowered the adjusted risk of inpatient hospitalization (HR 0.88, 95% CI 0.84–0.92, p<0.001), emergency department visits (HR 0.60, 95% CI 0.54–0.65, p<0.001), and overall hospital-based healthcare utilization (HR 0.94, 95% CI 0.90–0.98, p = 0.001). Atrial flutter ablation was also associated with a statistically significant 11% reduction in the adjusted hazard of atrial fibrillation (HR 0.89, 95% CI 0.81–0.97, p = 0.01). Risk of acute stroke was not significantly reduced after ablation (HR 1.09, 95% CI 0.81–1.45, p = 0.57). In a large, real world population, atrial flutter ablation was associated with significant reductions in hospital-based healthcare utilization and a reduced risk of atrial fibrillation. These findings support the early use of catheter ablation for the treatment of atrial flutter. PMID:24983868

  15. Adjusted Left Atrial Emptying Fraction as a Predictor of Procedural Outcome after Catheter Ablation for Atrial Fibrillation

    PubMed Central

    Im, Sung Il; Kim, Sun Won; Choi, Cheol Ung; Kim, Jin Won; Yong, Hwan Seok; Kim, Eung Ju; Rha, Seung-Woon; Park, Chang Gyu; Seo, Hong Seog; Oh, Dong Joo; Lim, Hong Euy

    2015-01-01

    Structural remodeling of the left atrium is a risk factor for recurrent arrhythmia after catheter ablation for atrial fibrillation; however, data are sparse regarding the role of functional left atrial remodeling in predicting procedural outcomes. We evaluated whether left atrial transport function could be used to predict recurrent atrial fibrillation. From July 2008 through August 2010, we enrolled 202 consecutive patients who underwent catheter ablation for atrial fibrillation (paroxysmal=120, persistent=82). Left atrial volumes (LAVs) were measured by means of multislice computed tomography at every 10% of the R-R interval, and measurements were adjusted for body surface area to yield the LAV index (LAVI) at baseline. The left atrial emptying fraction (LAEF) was calculated according to LAV differences. During the mean follow-up period of 10 ± 4 months after a single ablation procedure, atrial fibrillation recurred in 59 patients (paroxysmal=19, persistent=40). Multivariate analysis revealed that persistent atrial fibrillation, early mitral inflow velocity, LAVImax, LAVImin, LAEF, LAVImax/LAEF, and LAVImin/LAEF were all independent predictors of atrial fibrillation, but the best predictor was LAVImin/LAEF (β=1.329, P=0.001). The cutoff value was 1.61 (mL/m2)/%, and the sensitivity and specificity were 74.6% and 62.2%, respectively (area under the curve=0.761). Our study shows that adjusted left atrial emptying fraction with use of multislice computed tomography might be a useful, noninvasive method to select patients for ablation. PMID:26175632

  16. Korean Atrial Fibrillation (AF) Network: Genetic Variants for AF Do Not Predict Ablation Success

    PubMed Central

    Choi, Eue-Keun; Park, Jae Hyung; Lee, Ji-Young; Nam, Chung Mo; Hwang, Min Ki; Uhm, Jae-Sun; Joung, Boyoung; Ko, Young-Guk; Lee, Moon-Hyoung; Lubitz, Steven A; Ellinor, Patrick T; Pak, Hui-Nam

    2015-01-01

    Background Genomewide association studies have identified several loci associated with atrial fibrillation (AF) and have been reportedly associated with response to catheter ablation for AF in patients of European ancestry; however, associations between top susceptibility loci and AF recurrence after ablation have not been examined in Asian populations. We examined whether the top single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at chromosomes 4q25 (PITX2), 16q22 (ZFHX3), and 1q21 (KCNN3) were associated with AF in a Korean population and whether these SNPs were associated with clinical outcomes after catheter ablation for AF. Methods and Results We determined the association between 4 SNPs and AF in 1068 AF patients who underwent catheter ablation (74.6% male, aged 57.5±10.9 years, 67.9% paroxysmal AF) and 1068 age- and sex-matched controls. The SNPs at the PITX2 and ZFHX3 loci, but not the KCNN3 locus, were significantly associated with AF (PITX2/rs6843082_G: odds ratio 3.41, 95% CI 2.55 to 4.55, P=1.32×10−16; PITX2/rs2200733_T: odds ratio 2.05, 95% CI 1.66 to 2.53, P=2.20×10−11; ZFHX3/rs2106261_A: odds ratio 2.33, 95% CI 1.87 to 2.91, P=3.75×10−14; KCNN3/rs13376333_T: odds ratio 1.74, 95% CI 0.93 to 3.25, P=0.085). Among those patients who underwent catheter ablation for AF, none of the top AF-associated SNPs were associated with long-term clinical recurrence of AF after catheter ablation. Conclusions SNPs at the PITX2 and ZFHX3 loci were strongly associated with AF in Korean patients. In contrast to prior reports, none of the 4 top AF-susceptibility SNPs predicted clinical recurrence after catheter ablation. PMID:26272656

  17. Predicting the outcome of roulette

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Small, Michael; Tse, Chi Kong

    2012-09-01

    There have been several popular reports of various groups exploiting the deterministic nature of the game of roulette for profit. Moreover, through its history, the inherent determinism in the game of roulette has attracted the attention of many luminaries of chaos theory. In this paper, we provide a short review of that history and then set out to determine to what extent that determinism can really be exploited for profit. To do this, we provide a very simple model for the motion of a roulette wheel and ball and demonstrate that knowledge of initial position, velocity, and acceleration is sufficient to predict the outcome with adequate certainty to achieve a positive expected return. We describe two physically realizable systems to obtain this knowledge both incognito and in situ. The first system relies only on a mechanical count of rotation of the ball and the wheel to measure the relevant parameters. By applying these techniques to a standard casino-grade European roulette wheel, we demonstrate an expected return of at least 18%, well above the -2.7% expected of a random bet. With a more sophisticated, albeit more intrusive, system (mounting a digital camera above the wheel), we demonstrate a range of systematic and statistically significant biases which can be exploited to provide an improved guess of the outcome. Finally, our analysis demonstrates that even a very slight slant in the roulette table leads to a very pronounced bias which could be further exploited to substantially enhance returns.

  18. Predicting the outcome of roulette.

    PubMed

    Small, Michael; Tse, Chi Kong

    2012-09-01

    There have been several popular reports of various groups exploiting the deterministic nature of the game of roulette for profit. Moreover, through its history, the inherent determinism in the game of roulette has attracted the attention of many luminaries of chaos theory. In this paper, we provide a short review of that history and then set out to determine to what extent that determinism can really be exploited for profit. To do this, we provide a very simple model for the motion of a roulette wheel and ball and demonstrate that knowledge of initial position, velocity, and acceleration is sufficient to predict the outcome with adequate certainty to achieve a positive expected return. We describe two physically realizable systems to obtain this knowledge both incognito and in situ. The first system relies only on a mechanical count of rotation of the ball and the wheel to measure the relevant parameters. By applying these techniques to a standard casino-grade European roulette wheel, we demonstrate an expected return of at least 18%, well above the -2.7% expected of a random bet. With a more sophisticated, albeit more intrusive, system (mounting a digital camera above the wheel), we demonstrate a range of systematic and statistically significant biases which can be exploited to provide an improved guess of the outcome. Finally, our analysis demonstrates that even a very slight slant in the roulette table leads to a very pronounced bias which could be further exploited to substantially enhance returns.

  19. Laparoscopic Radiofrequency Ablation for Large Subcapsular Hepatic Hemangiomas: Technical and Clinical Outcomes

    PubMed Central

    Ding, Xue-Mei; Ke, Shan; Xin, Zong-Hai; Ning, Chun-Min; Guo, Shi-Gang; Li, Xiao-Long; Dong, Yong-Hong; Sun, Wen-Bing

    2016-01-01

    Objectives The aim of this study was to evaluate the technical and clinical outcomes of using laparoscopic radiofrequency (RF) ablation for treating large subcapsular hepatic hemangiomas. Methods We retrospectively reviewed our sequential experience of treating 124 large subcapsular hepatic hemangiomas in 121 patients with laparoscopic RF ablation. Results The mean diameter of the 124 hemangiomas was 9.1 ± 3.2 cm (5.0–16.0 cm). RF ablation was performed successfully in all patients. There were 55 complications related to the ablation in 26 patients, including 5 of 69 (7.3%) patients with hemangioma <10 cm and 21 of 52 (40.4%) patients with hemangiomas ≥10 cm (P < 0.001). No injuries to abdominal viscera occurred in all the 121 patients. According to the Dindo–Clavien classification, all the complications were minor in 26 patients (Grade I). Out of 124 hepatic hemangiomas, 118 (95.2%) were completely ablated, including 70 of 72 (97.2%) lesions < 10 cm and 48 of 52 (92.3%) lesions ≥ 10 cm (P = 0.236). Conclusion Laparoscopic RF ablation therapy is a safe, feasible and effective procedure for large subcapsular hepatic hemangiomas, even in the hepatic hemangiomas ≥ 10 cm. Its use avoids thermal injury to the abdominal viscera. PMID:26901132

  20. Outcome after Radiofrequency Ablation of Sarcoma Lung Metastases

    SciTech Connect

    Koelblinger, Claus; Strauss, Sandra; Gillams, Alice

    2013-05-14

    PurposeResection is the mainstay of management in patients with sarcoma lung metastases, but there is a limit to how many resections can be performed. Some patients with inoperable disease have small-volume lung metastases that are amenable to thermal ablation. We report our results after radiofrequency ablation (RFA).MethodsThis is a retrospective study of patients treated from 2007 to 2012 in whom the intention was to treat all sites of disease and who had a minimum CT follow-up of 4 months. Treatment was performed under general anesthesia/conscious sedation using cool-tip RFA. Follow-up CT scans were analyzed for local control. Primary tumor type, location, grade, disease-free interval, prior resection/chemotherapy, number and size of lung tumors, uni- or bilateral disease, complications, and overall and progression-free survival were recorded.ResultsTwenty-two patients [15 women; median age 48 (range 10–78) years] with 55 lung metastases were treated in 30 sessions. Mean and median tumor size and initial number were 0.9 cm and 0.7 (range 0.5–2) cm, and 2.5 and 1 (1–7) respectively. Median CT and clinical follow-up were 12 (4–54) and 20 (8–63) months, respectively. Primary local control rate was 52 of 55 (95 %). There were 2 of 30 (6.6 %) Common Terminology Criteria grade 3 complications with no long-term sequelae. Mean (median not reached) and 2- and 3-year overall survival were 51 months, and 94 and 85 %. Median and 1- and 2-year progression-free survival were 12 months, and 53 and 23 %. Prior disease-free interval was the only significant factor to affect overall survival.ConclusionRFA is a safe and effective treatment for patients with small-volume sarcoma metastases.

  1. Long-term Outcomes of Ventricular Tachycardia Ablation in Different Types of Structural Heart Disease

    PubMed Central

    Liang, Jackson J; Santangeli, Pasquale; Callans, David J

    2015-01-01

    Ventricular tachycardia (VT) often occurs in the setting of structural heart disease and can affect patients with ischaemic or nonischaemic cardiomyopathies. Implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (ICDs) provide mortality benefit and are therefore indicated for secondary prevention in patients with sustained VT, but they do not reduce arrhythmia burden. ICD shocks are associated with increased morbidity and mortality, and antiarrhythmic medications are often used to prevent recurrent episodes. Catheter ablation is an effective treatment option for patients with VT in the setting of structural heart disease and, when successful, can reduce the number of ICD shocks. However, whether VT ablation results in a mortality benefit remains unclear. We aim to review the long-term outcomes in patients with different types of structural heart disease treated with VT ablation. PMID:26835122

  2. Reproductive Outcomes and Nononcologic Complications After Radioactive Iodine Ablation for Well-Differentiated Thyroid Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Young, Stephanie; Ro, Kevin; Li, Ning; Leung, Angela M.; Chiu, Harvey K.; Harari, Avital; Yeh, Michael W.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Radioactive iodine (RAI) ablation is frequently performed after initial surgery for well-differentiated thyroid cancer (WDTC). We examined the frequency and timing of childbirth as well as nononcologic complications after RAI ablation for WDTC on a population level. Methods: A retrospective cohort study of 25,333 patients (18,850 women) with WDTC was performed using the California Cancer Registry and California Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development database, 1999–2008. The primary outcomes were birthrate and median time to first live birth among women of childbearing age. Secondary outcomes were nononcologic diagnoses occurring outside the acute setting (>30 days) after ablation. Results: RAI ablation did not affect birthrate among women in the full dataset. However, in subgroup analyses, birthrate among women age 35–39 was significantly decreased in those who received RAI versus those who did not (11.5 versus 16.3 births per 1000 woman-years, p<0.001). Median time to first live birth after diagnosis of WDTC was prolonged among women who received RAI compared to those who did not (34.5 versus 26.1 months; p<0.0001). When 5-year age groups were examined individually, delay to first live birth was observed in women age 20–39 (p<0.05). This remained significant after adjustment for tumor characteristics, socioeconomic status, and marital status. The only nononcologic, nonreproductive adverse effect associated with RAI ablation was an increased rate of nasolacrimal stenosis (RR 3.44, p<0.0001). Conclusions: RAI ablation is associated with delayed childbearing in women across most of the reproductive lifespan, and with decreased birthrate in the late reproductive years. The underlying mechanism likely involves physician recommendation to delay pregnancy, as well as a potential impact of RAI on both reproductive choice and reproductive health. Further investigation is merited. PMID:25289542

  3. Program Characteristics that Predict Improved Learner Outcomes

    PubMed Central

    Patterson, Margaret Becker; Mellard, Daryl

    2011-01-01

    This study identifies adult education program characteristics that predict improved learner outcomes through statistical analyses of data across four years in a single state. Data indicate that, collectively, several predictors contribute to our understanding of learner outcomes, including (a) learner entry level, (b) size of community, (c) staff qualifications, and (d) learner exposure to high quality services. A surprising finding was the lack of robust outcome predictors that maintain consistency from one year to another. PMID:22348153

  4. Initial Independent Outcomes from Focal Impulse and Rotor Modulation Ablation for Atrial Fibrillation: Multicenter FIRM Registry

    PubMed Central

    MILLER, JOHN M.; KOWAL, ROBERT C.; SWARUP, VIJAY; DAUBERT, JAMES P.; DAOUD, EMILE G.; DAY, JOHN D.; ELLENBOGEN, KENNETH A.; HUMMEL, JOHN D.; BAYKANER, TINA; KRUMMEN, DAVID E.; NARAYAN, SANJIV M.; REDDY, VIVEK Y.; SHIVKUMAR, KALYANAM; STEINBERG, JONATHAN S.; WHEELAN, KEVIN R.

    2014-01-01

    Introduction The success of pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) for atrial fibrillation (AF) may be improved if stable AF sources identified by Focal Impulse and Rotor Mapping (FIRM) are also eliminated. The long-term results of this approach are unclear outside the centers where FIRM was developed; thus, we assessed outcomes of FIRM-guided AF ablation in the first cases at 10 experienced centers. Methods We prospectively enrolled n = 78 consecutive patients (61 ± 10 years) undergoing FIRM guided ablation for persistent (n = 48), longstanding persistent (n = 7), or paroxysmal (n = 23) AF. AF recordings from both atria with a 64-pole basket catheter were analyzed using a novel mapping system (Rhythm View™; Topera Inc., CA, USA). Identified rotors/focal sources were ablated, followed by PVI. Results Each institution recruited a median of 6 patients, each of whom showed 2.3 ± 0.9 AF rotors/focal sources in diverse locations. 25.3% of all sources were right atrial (RA), and 50.0% of patients had ≥1 RA source. Ablation of all sources required a total of 16.6 ± 11.7 minutes, followed by PVI. On >1 year follow-up with a 3-month blanking period, 1 patient lost to follow-up (median time to 1st recurrence: 245 days, IQR 145–354), single-procedure freedom from AF was 87.5% (patients without prior ablation; 35/40) and 80.5% (all patients; 62/77) and similar for persistent and paroxysmal AF (P = 0.89). Conclusions Elimination of patient-specific AF rotors/focal sources produced freedom-from-AF of ≈80% at 1 year at centers new to FIRM. FIRM-guided ablation has a rapid learning curve, yielding similar results to original FIRM reports in each center’s first cases. PMID:24948520

  5. Outcomes after ablation for typical atrial flutter (from the Loire Valley Atrial Fibrillation Project).

    PubMed

    Clementy, Nicolas; Desprets, Laurent; Pierre, Bertrand; Lallemand, Bénédicte; Simeon, Edouard; Brunet-Bernard, Anne; Babuty, Dominique; Fauchier, Laurent

    2014-11-01

    Similar predisposing factors are found in most types of atrial arrhythmias. The incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF) among patients with atrial flutter is high, suggesting similar outcomes in patients with those arrhythmias. We sought to investigate the long-term outcomes and prognostic factors of patients with AF and/or atrial flutter with contemporary management using radiofrequency ablation. In an academic institution, we retrospectively examined the clinical course of 8,962 consecutive patients admitted to our department with a diagnosis of AF and/or atrial flutter. After a median follow-up of 934 ± 1,134 days, 1,155 deaths and 715 stroke and/thromboembolic (TE) events were recorded. Patients with atrial flutter undergoing cavotricuspid isthmus ablation (n = 875, 37% with a history of AF) had a better survival rate than other patients (hazard ratio [HR] 0.35, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.25 to 0.49, p <0.0001). Using Cox proportional hazards model and propensity score model, after adjustment for main other confounders, ablation for atrial flutter was significantly associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality (HR 0.55, 95% CI 0.36 to 0.84, p = 0.006) and stroke and/or TE events (HR 0.53, 95% CI 0.30 to 0.92, p = 0.02). After ablation, there was no significant difference in the risk of TE between patients with a history of AF and those with atrial flutter alone (HR 0.83, 95% CI 0.41 to 1.67, p = 0.59). In conclusion, in patients with atrial tachyarrhythmias, those with atrial flutter with contemporary management who undergo cavotricuspid isthmus radiofrequency ablation independently have a lower risk of stroke and/or TE events and death of any cause, whether a history of AF is present or not.

  6. Comparison of Ablation Predictions for Carbonaceous Materials Using CEA and JANAF-Based Species Thermodynamics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Milos, Frank S.

    2011-01-01

    In most previous work at NASA Ames Research Center, ablation predictions for carbonaceous materials were obtained using a species thermodynamics database developed by Aerotherm Corporation. This database is derived mostly from the JANAF thermochemical tables. However, the CEA thermodynamics database, also used by NASA, is considered more up to date. In this work, the FIAT code was modified to use CEA-based curve fits for species thermodynamics, then analyses using both the JANAF and CEA thermodynamics were performed for carbon and carbon phenolic materials over a range of test conditions. The ablation predictions are comparable at lower heat fluxes where the dominant mechanism is carbon oxidation. However, the predictions begin to diverge in the sublimation regime, with the CEA model predicting lower recession. The disagreement is more significant for carbon phenolic than for carbon, and this difference is attributed to hydrocarbon species that may contribute to the ablation rate.

  7. Outcomes After Stereotactic Body Radiotherapy or Radiofrequency Ablation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Wahl, Daniel R.; Stenmark, Matthew H.; Tao, Yebin; Pollom, Erqi L.; Caoili, Elaine M.; Lawrence, Theodore S.; Schipper, Matthew J.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose Data guiding selection of nonsurgical treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are lacking. We therefore compared outcomes between stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) and radiofrequency ablation (RFA) for HCC. Patients and Methods From 2004 to 2012, 224 patients with inoperable, nonmetastatic HCC underwent RFA (n = 161) to 249 tumors or image-guided SBRT (n = 63) to 83 tumors. We applied inverse probability of treatment weighting to adjust for imbalances in treatment assignment. Freedom from local progression (FFLP) and toxicity were retrospectively analyzed. Results RFA and SBRT groups were similar with respect to number of lesions treated per patient, type of underlying liver disease, and tumor size (median, 1.8 v 2.2 cm in maximum diameter; P = .14). However, the SBRT group had lower pretreatment Child-Pugh scores (P = .003), higher pretreatment alpha-fetoprotein levels (P = .04), and a greater number of prior liver-directed treatments (P < .001). One- and 2-year FFLP for tumors treated with RFA were 83.6% and 80.2% v 97.4% and 83.8% for SBRT. Increasing tumor size predicted for FFLP in patients treated with RFA (hazard ratio [HR], 1.54 per cm; P = .006), but not with SBRT (HR, 1.21 per cm; P = .617). For tumors ≥ 2 cm, there was decreased FFLP for RFA compared with SBRT (HR, 3.35; P = .025). Acute grade 3+ complications occurred after 11% and 5% of RFA and SBRT treatments, respectively (P = .31). Overall survival 1 and 2 years after treatment was 70% and 53% after RFA and 74% and 46% after SBRT. Conclusion Both RFA and SBRT are effective local treatment options for inoperable HCC. Although these data are retrospective, SBRT appears to be a reasonable first-line treatment of inoperable, larger HCC. PMID:26628466

  8. Association of Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms with Atrial Fibrillation and the Outcome after Catheter Ablation

    PubMed Central

    Hu, Yu-Feng; Wang, Hsueh-Hsiao; Yeh, Hung-I; Lee, Kun-Tai; Lin, Yenn-Jiang; Chang, Shih-Lin; Lo, Li-Wei; Tuan, Ta-Chuan; Li, Cheng-Hung; Chao, Tze-Fan; Chung, Fa-Po; Liao, Jo-Nan; Tang, Paul Wei Hua; Tsai, Wei-Chung; Chiou, Chuen-Wang; Chen, Shih-Ann

    2016-01-01

    Background The association of gene variants with atrial fibrillation (AF) type and the recurrence of AF after catheter ablation in Taiwan is still unclear. In this study, we aimed to investigate the relationships between gene variants, AF type, and the recurrence of AF. Methods In our investigation, we examined 383 consecutive patients with AF (61.9 ± 14.0 years; 63% men); of these 383 patients, 189 underwent catheter ablation for drug-refractory AF. Thereafter, the single nucleotide polymorphisms rs2200733, and rs7193343 were genotyped using real-time polymerase chain reaction. Results The rs7193343 variant was independently associated with non-paroxysmal AF (non-PAF). In the PAF group, the rs7193343 variant was independently associated with AF recurrence after catheter ablation. However, the rs2200733 variant was not associated with AF recurrence in this group. The combination of the rs7193343 and rs2200733 risk alleles was associated with a better predictive power in the PAF patients. In contrast, in the non-PAF group, the SNPs were not associated with recurrence. The rs7193343 and rs2200733 variants were not associated with different atrial voltage and activation times. Conclusions The rs7193343 variants were associated with AF recurrence after catheter ablation in PAF patients but not in non-PAF patients. The rs7193343 CC variant was independently associated with non-PAF. PMID:27713600

  9. Early Adolescent Affect Predicts Later Life Outcomes

    PubMed Central

    Kansky, Jessica; Allen, Joseph P.; Diener, Ed

    2016-01-01

    Background Subjective well-being as a predictor for later behavior and health has highlighted its relationship to health, work performance, and social relationships. However, the majority of such studies neglect the developmental nature of well-being in contributing to important changes across the transition to adulthood. Methods To examine the potential role of subjective well-being as a long-term predictor of critical life outcomes, we examined indicators of positive and negative affect at age 14 as a predictor of relationship, adjustment, self worth, and career outcomes a decade later at ages 23 to 25, controlling for family income and gender. We utilized multi-informant methods including reports from the target participant, close friends, and romantic partners in a demographically diverse community sample of 184 participants. Results Early adolescent positive affect predicted less relationship problems (less self-reported and partner-reported conflict, greater friendship attachment as rated by close peers), healthy adjustment to adulthood (lower levels of depression, anxiety, and loneliness). It also predicted positive work functioning (higher levels of career satisfaction and job competence) and increased self-worth. Negative affect did not significantly predict any of these important life outcomes. In addition to predicting desirable mean levels of later outcomes, early positive affect predicted beneficial changes across time in many outcomes. Conclusions The findings extend early research on the beneficial outcomes of subjective well-being by having an earlier assessment of well-being, including informant reports in measuring a large variety of outcome variables, and by extending the findings to a lower socioeconomic group of a diverse and younger sample. The results highlight the importance of considering positive affect as an important component of subjective well-being distinct from negative affect. PMID:27075545

  10. ESWL prediction of outcome and failure prevention.

    PubMed

    Vella, M; Caramia, M; Maltese, M; Melloni, D; Caramia, G

    2007-01-01

    Based on our own experiences and a review of the recent literature, this article evaluates recent developments in predicting outcomes and failures of shockwave lithotripsy when treating patients with urinary tract stones. After a detailed MEDLINE research, the authors identified several variables that influence and predict extracorporeal shockwave lithotripsy (ESWL) success. These variables may be categorized as stone variables, patient variables and operator variables. Only multivariate analysis on a large number of homogenous patients may offer an objective evaluation of the factors conditioning ESWL outcome.

  11. Expectations predict chronic pain treatment outcomes.

    PubMed

    Cormier, Stéphanie; Lavigne, Geneviève L; Choinière, Manon; Rainville, Pierre

    2016-02-01

    Accumulating evidence suggests an association between patient pretreatment expectations and numerous health outcomes. However, it remains unclear if and how expectations relate to outcomes after treatments in multidisciplinary pain programs. The present study aims at investigating the predictive association between expectations and clinical outcomes in a large database of chronic pain patients. In this observational cohort study, participants were 2272 patients treated in one of 3 university-affiliated multidisciplinary pain treatment centers. All patients received personalized care, including medical, psychological, and/or physical interventions. Patient expectations regarding pain relief and improvements in quality of life and functioning were measured before the first visit to the pain centers and served as predictor variables. Changes in pain intensity, depressive symptoms, pain interference, and tendency to catastrophize, as well as satisfaction with pain treatment and global impressions of change at 6-month follow-up, were considered as treatment outcomes. Structural equation modeling analyses showed significant positive relationships between expectations and most clinical outcomes, and this association was largely mediated by patients' global impressions of change. Similar patterns of relationships between variables were also observed in various subgroups of patients based on sex, age, pain duration, and pain classification. Such results emphasize the relevance of patient expectations as a determinant of outcomes in multimodal pain treatment programs. Furthermore, the results suggest that superior clinical outcomes are observed in individuals who expect high positive outcomes as a result of treatment.

  12. Impact of Free Thyroxine on the Outcomes of Left Atrial Ablation Procedures.

    PubMed

    Sousa, Pedro A; Providência, Rui; Albenque, Jean-Paul; Khoueiry, Ziad; Combes, Nicolas; Combes, Stéphane; Boveda, Serge

    2015-12-15

    The prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) is increased in hyperthyroidism. The degree to which thyroid hormones affect the outcomes of left atrial (LA) ablation is still unclear. From September 2010 to September 2013, 1,095 patients who underwent LA ablation (59.7% paroxysmal AF, 32.3% persistent AF, and 8.0% LA tachycardia) had their serum thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) and free thyroxine (FT4) levels measured in the 48 hours before the procedure. Patients were followed until they presented the first AF relapse after a blanking period of 3 months. TSH and FT4 were assessed as predictors of arrhythmia relapse and were adjusted for possible confounders. During a mean follow-up of 12.5 ± 7.9 months, 28.9% of patients presented an atrial arrhythmia relapse. TSH was not a predictor of relapse. In contrast, after adjustment, FT4 (median = 11.8 ng/L and interquartile range 10.6 to 14.6 ng/L) remained a predictor of relapse with 15% increase per quartile (hazard ratio 1.15, 95% confidence interval 1.03 to 1.29, p = 0.014). In conclusion, FT4 levels influence the success rate of LA ablation procedures, even when in the normal range. PMID:26514301

  13. Predicting Language Outcomes for Internationally Adopted Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Glennen, Sharon L.

    2007-01-01

    Purpose: Language and speech are difficult to assess in newly arrived internationally adopted children. The purpose of this study was to determine if assessments completed when toddlers were first adopted could predict language outcomes at age 2. Local norms were used to develop early intervention guidelines that were evaluated against age 2…

  14. Prediction of processing tomato peeling outcomes

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Peeling outcomes of processing tomatoes were predicted using multivariate analysis of Magnetic Resonance (MR) images. Tomatoes were obtained from a whole-peel production line. Each fruit was imaged using a 7 Tesla MR system, and a multivariate data set was created from 28 different images. After ...

  15. Novel P Wave Indices to Predict Atrial Fibrillation Recurrence After Radiofrequency Ablation for Paroxysmal Atrial Fibrillation

    PubMed Central

    Hu, Xiaoliang; Jiang, Jingzhou; Ma, Yuedong; Tang, Anli

    2016-01-01

    Background Circumferential pulmonary vein isolation (CPVI) is a widely used treatment for paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (AF). Several P wave duration (PWD) parameters have been suggested to predict post-ablation recurrence, but their use remains controversial. This study aimed to identify novel P wave indices that predict post-ablation AF recurrence. Material/Methods We selected 171 consecutive patients undergoing CPVI for paroxysmal AF. Electrocardiography (ECG) recordings were obtained at the beginning and the end of ablation. PWD was measured in all 12 leads. The PWD variation was calculated by subtracting the pre-ablation PWD from the post-ablation PWD. Results PWD was significantly shortened in leads II, III, aVF, and V1 after ablation. During a mean follow-up of 19.96±4.32 months, AF recurrence occurred in 32 (18.7%) patients. No significant differences in baseline characteristics or pre- or post-ablation PWD were observed between the AF recurrence and non-recurrence groups. Patients with AF recurrence exhibited a smaller PWD variation in leads II (1.21(−0.56, 2.40) vs. −5.77(−9.10, −4.06) ms, P<0.001), III (−5.92(−9.87, 3.27) vs. −9.44(−11.89, −5.57) ms, P=0.001) and V1 (−4.43(−6.64, −3.13) vs. −6.33(−8.19,−4.59) ms, P=0.003). Multivariable logistic regression analysis demonstrated that smaller PWD variations in lead II and III were independent risk factors for AF recurrence. PWD variation ≥−2.21 ms in lead II displayed the highest combined sensitivity and specificity (85.29% and 83.94%, respectively) for predicting post-ablation AF recurrence. A PWD variation ≥0 ms displayed the best practical value in predicting AF recurrence. Conclusions PWD variation in lead II is an effective predictor of post-ablation AF recurrence. PMID:27450644

  16. Endometrial ablation

    MedlinePlus

    Hysteroscopy-endometrial ablation; Laser thermal ablation; Endometrial ablation-radiofrequency; Endometrial ablation-thermal balloon ablation; Rollerball ablation; Hydrothermal ablation; Novasure ablation

  17. Outcomes of Cryoballoon Ablation in High- and Low-Volume Atrial Fibrillation Ablation Centres: A Russian Pilot Survey

    PubMed Central

    Mikhaylov, Evgeny N.; Lebedev, Dmitry S.; Pokushalov, Evgeny A.; Davtyan, Karapet V.; Ivanitskii, Eduard A.; Nechepurenko, Anatoly A.; Kosonogov, Alexey Ya.; Kolunin, Grigory V.; Morozov, Igor A.; Termosesov, Sergey A.; Maykov, Evgeny B.; Khomutinin, Dmitry N.; Eremin, Sergey A.; Mayorov, Igor M.; Romanov, Alexander B.; Shabanov, Vitaliy V.; Shatakhtsyan, Victoria; Tsivkovskii, Viktor; Revishvili, Amiran Sh.; Shlyakhto, Evgeny V.

    2015-01-01

    Purpose. The results of cryoballoon ablation (CBA) procedure have been mainly derived from studies conducted in experienced atrial fibrillation (AF) ablation centres. Here, we report on CBA efficacy and complications resulting from real practice of this procedure at both high- and low-volume centres. Methods. Among 62 Russian centres performing AF ablation, 15 (24%) used CBA technology for pulmonary vein isolation. The centres were asked to provide a detailed description of all CBA procedures performed and complications, if encountered. Results. Thirteen sites completed interviews on all CBAs in their centres (>95% of CBAs in Russia). Six sites were high-volume AF ablation (>100 AF cases/year) centres, and 7 were low-volume AF ablation. There was no statistical difference in arrhythmia-free rates between high- and low-volume centres (64.6 versus 60.8% at 6 months). Major complications developed in 1.5% of patients and were equally distributed between high- and low-volume centres. Minor procedure-related events were encountered in 8% of patients and were more prevalent in high-volume centres. Total event and vascular access site event rates were higher in women than in men. Conclusions. CBA has an acceptable efficacy profile in real practice. In less experienced AF ablation centres, the major complication rate is equal to that in high-volume centres. PMID:26640789

  18. Predicting Alcohol Treatment Outcome: Using Expectancy to Enhance Prediction.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brown, Sandra A.; Berger, Barry

    Research in the field of alcohol abuse evidences a long history of attempts to predict outcome from alcohol treatment programs using situational and intrapsychic factors. To investigate whether alcohol reinforcement expectancies are related to drinking behavior, 42 male veteran graduates of an inpatient alcohol treatment program were interviewed 1…

  19. Muscle Mass Predicts Outcomes Following Liver Transplantation

    PubMed Central

    DiMartini, Andrea; Cruz, Ruy J.; Dew, Mary Amanda; Myaskovsky, Larissa; Goodpaster, Bret; Fox, Kristen; Kim, Kevin H.; Fontes, Paulo

    2015-01-01

    Background and aims For patients with end-stage liver disease commonly used indices of nutritional status (i.e. body weight and BMI) are often inflated due to fluid overload (i.e. ascites, peripheral edema) resulting in an underdiagnosis of malnutrition. As muscle is the largest protein reservoir in the body, an estimate of muscle mass may be a more reliable and valid estimate of nutritional status. Methods Therefore, we used pre-transplant computerized tomography data of 338 liver transplant (LTX) candidates to identify muscle and fat mass based on a specific abdominal transverse section commonly used in body composition analyses and investigated the contribution of this measure to specific post-LTX outcomes. Results We found the majority, 68%, of our patients could be defined as cachetic. For men muscle mass predicted many important post-transplant outcomes including intensive care unit (ICU) and total length of stay and days of intubation. Muscle mass was a significant predictor of survival and also predicted disposition to home vs another facility. For women muscle mass predicted lengths of ICU and total stay and days of intubation but the effect was modest. Muscle mass did not predict survival or disposition for women. Conclusions As pre-transplant muscle mass was associated with many important post-operative outcomes we discuss these findings in the context of possible pre-transplant interventions to either improve or sustain muscle mass before surgery. PMID:23960026

  20. Scalp EEG does not predict hemispherectomy outcome

    PubMed Central

    Greiner, Hansel M.; Park, Yong D.; Holland, Katherine; Horn, Paul S.; Byars, Anna W.; Mangano, Francesco T.; Smith, Joseph R.; Lee, Mark R.; Lee, Ki-Hyeong

    2012-01-01

    Background Functional hemispherectomy is effective in carefully selected patients, resulting in a reduction of seizure burden up to complete resolution, improvement of intellectual development, and developmental benefit despite possible additional neurological deficit. Despite apparent hemispheric pathology on brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) or other imaging tests, scalp electroencephalography (EEG) could be suggestive of bilateral ictal onset or even ictal onset contralateral to the dominant imaging abnormality. We aimed to investigate the role of scalp EEG lateralization pre-operatively in predicting outcome. Methods We retrospectively reviewed 54 patients who underwent hemispherectomy between 1991 and 2009 at Medical College of Georgia (1991–2006) and Cincinnati Children’s Hospital Medical Center (2006–2009) and had at least one year post-operative follow-up. All preoperative EEGs were reviewed, and classified as either lateralizing or nonlateralizing, for both ictal and interictal EEG recordings. Results Of 54 patients, 42 (78%) became seizure free. Twenty-four (44%) of 54 had a nonlateralizing ictal or interictal EEG. Further analysis was based on etiology of epilepsy, including malformation of cortical development (MCD), Rasmussen syndrome (RS), and stroke (CVA). EEG nonlateralization did not predict poor outcome in any of the etiology groups evaluated. Conclusion Scalp EEG abnormalities in contralateral or bilateral hemispheres do not, in isolation, predict a poor outcome from hemispherectomy. Results of other non-invasive and invasive evaluations should be used to determine candidacy. PMID:21813300

  1. Predicting Clinical Outcomes Using Molecular Biomarkers

    PubMed Central

    Burke, Harry B.

    2016-01-01

    Over the past 20 years, there has been an exponential increase in the number of biomarkers. At the last count, there were 768,259 papers indexed in PubMed.gov directly related to biomarkers. Although many of these papers claim to report clinically useful molecular biomarkers, embarrassingly few are currently in clinical use. It is suggested that a failure to properly understand, clinically assess, and utilize molecular biomarkers has prevented their widespread adoption in treatment, in comparative benefit analyses, and their integration into individualized patient outcome predictions for clinical decision-making and therapy. A straightforward, general approach to understanding how to predict clinical outcomes using risk, diagnostic, and prognostic molecular biomarkers is presented. In the future, molecular biomarkers will drive advances in risk, diagnosis, and prognosis, they will be the targets of powerful molecular therapies, and they will individualize and optimize therapy. Furthermore, clinical predictions based on molecular biomarkers will be displayed on the clinician’s screen during the physician–patient interaction, they will be an integral part of physician–patient-shared decision-making, and they will improve clinical care and patient outcomes. PMID:27279751

  2. TECHNIQUES AND OUTCOMES OF MINIMALLY-INVASIVE TRABECULAR ABLATION AND BYPASS SURGERY

    PubMed Central

    Kaplowitz, Kevin; Schuman, Joel S.; Loewen, Nils A.

    2014-01-01

    Minimally invasive glaucoma surgeries (MIGS) can improve the conventional, pressure dependent outflow by bypassing or ablating the trabecular meshwork or create alternative drainage routes into the suprachoroidal or subconjunctival space. They have a highly favorable risk profile compared to penetrating surgeries and lower intraocular pressure with variable efficacy that may depend on the extent of outflow segments accessed. Since they are highly standardized procedures that use clear corneal incisions, they can elegantly be combined with cataract and refractive procedures to improve vision in the same session. There is a growing need for surgeons to become proficient in MIGS to address the increasing prevalence of glaucoma and cataracts in a well-informed, aging population. Techniques of visualization and instrumentation in an anatomically highly confined space with semi-transparent tissues are fundamentally different from other anterior segment surgeries and present even experienced surgeons with a substantial learning curve. Here, we provide practical tips and review techniques and outcomes of TM bypass and ablation MIGS. PMID:24338085

  3. Image-guided percutaneous microwave ablation of small renal tumours: short- and mid-term outcomes

    PubMed Central

    Genson, Pierre-Yves; Mourey, Eric; Moulin, Morgan; Favelier, Sylvain; Di Marco, Lucy; Chevallier, Olivier; Cercueil, Jean-Pierre; Krausé, Denis; Cormier, Luc

    2015-01-01

    Background The purpose is to assess the short- and mid-term outcomes of microwave ablation (MWA) of small renal tumours in selected patients. Methods From August 2012 to February 2015, 29 renal tumours in 23 patients (17 male, 6 female, mean age 75 years) were treated by percutaneous MWA under imaging guidance. The tumours were 1-4.7 cm in diameter (mean size, 2.7 cm). Therapeutic effects were assessed at follow-up with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). All patients were followed up for 2-25 months (mean, 12.2 months) to observe the therapeutic effects and complications. Changes in renal function at day 1 after treatment were statistically analyzed using the Student paired t-test or the paired Wilcoxon test. Results Technical success was achieved in all cases. One severe bleeding complication post-procedure occurred leading to death. No other unexpected side effects were observed after the MWA procedures. Clinical effectiveness was 100%. None of the patients showed recurrence on MRI imaging follow-up. No significant changes in renal function were noted after treatment (P=0.57). Conclusions Our preliminary study demonstrates that the use of MWA for the treatment of small renal tumours can be applied as safely and efficiently as other ablative techniques in selected patients not eligible for surgery. PMID:26682134

  4. Techniques and outcomes of minimally invasive trabecular ablation and bypass surgery.

    PubMed

    Kaplowitz, Kevin; Schuman, Joel S; Loewen, Nils A

    2014-05-01

    Minimally invasive glaucoma surgeries (MIGS) can improve the conventional, pressure-dependent outflow by bypassing or ablating the trabecular meshwork (TM), or creating alternative drainage routes into the suprachoroidal or subconjunctival space. They have a highly favourable risk profile compared to penetrating surgeries, and lower intraocular pressure with variable efficacy that may depend on the extent of outflow segments accessed. Since they are highly standardised procedures that use clear corneal incisions, they can elegantly be combined with cataract and refractive procedures to improve vision in the same session. There is a growing need for surgeons to become proficient in MIGS to address the increasing prevalence of glaucoma and cataracts in a well-informed, aging population. Techniques of visualisation and instrumentation in an anatomically highly confined space with semitransparent tissues are fundamentally different from other anterior segment surgeries, and present even experienced surgeons with a substantial learning curve. Here, we provide practical tips, and review techniques and outcomes of TM bypass and ablation MIGS.

  5. Long‐term Outcomes of Catheter Ablation of Atrial Fibrillation: A Systematic Review and Meta‐analysis

    PubMed Central

    Ganesan, Anand N.; Shipp, Nicholas J.; Brooks, Anthony G.; Kuklik, Pawel; Lau, Dennis H.; Lim, Han S.; Sullivan, Thomas; Roberts‐Thomson, Kurt C.; Sanders, Prashanthan

    2013-01-01

    Background In the past decade, catheter ablation has become an established therapy for symptomatic atrial fibrillation (AF). Until very recently, few data have been available to guide the clinical community on the outcomes of AF ablation at ≥3 years of follow‐up. We aimed to systematically review the medical literature to evaluate the long‐term outcomes of AF ablation. Methods and Results A structured electronic database search (PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Cochrane) of the scientific literature was performed for studies describing outcomes at ≥3 years after AF ablation, with a mean follow‐up of ≥24 months after the index procedure. The following data were extracted: (1) single‐procedure success, (2) multiple‐procedure success, and (3) requirement for repeat procedures. Data were extracted from 19 studies, including 6167 patients undergoing AF ablation. Single‐procedure freedom from atrial arrhythmia at long‐term follow‐up was 53.1% (95% CI 46.2% to 60.0%) overall, 54.1% (95% CI 44.4% to 63.4%) in paroxysmal AF, and 41.8% (95% CI 25.2% to 60.5%) in nonparoxysmal AF. Substantial heterogeneity (I2>50%) was noted for single‐procedure outcomes. With multiple procedures, the long‐term success rate was 79.8% (95% CI 75.0% to 83.8%) overall, with significant heterogeneity (I2>50%).The average number of procedures per patient was 1.51 (95% CI 1.36 to 1.67). Conclusions Catheter ablation is an effective and durable long‐term therapeutic strategy for some AF patients. Although significant heterogeneity is seen with single procedures, long‐term freedom from atrial arrhythmia can be achieved in some patients, but multiple procedures may be required. PMID:23537812

  6. Prediction of Ablation Rates from Solid Surfaces Exposed to High Temperature Gas Flow

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Akyuzlu, Kazim M.; Coote, David

    2013-01-01

    ablation. Two different ablation models are proposed to determine the heat loss from the solid surface due to the ablation of the solid material. Both of them are physics based. Various numerical simulations were carried out using both models to predict the temperature distribution in the solid and in the gas flow, and then predict the ablation rates at a typical NTR motor hydrogen gas temperature and pressure. Solid mass loss rate per foot of a pipe was also calculated from these predictions. The results are presented for fully developed turbulent flow conditions in a sample SS pipe with a 6 inch diameter.

  7. Pretreatment task persistence predicts smoking cessation outcome.

    PubMed

    Brandon, Thomas H; Herzog, Thaddeus A; Juliano, Laura M; Irvin, Jennifer E; Lazev, Amy B; Simmons, Vani Nath

    2003-08-01

    R. Eisenberger's (1992) learned industriousness theory states that individuals display differing degrees of persistence depending on their history of reinforcement for effortful behavior. These differences may influence the development, maintenance, and cessation of addictive behaviors. In cross-sectional studies, E. P. Quinn, T. H. Brandon, and A. L. Copeland (1996) found that cigarette smokers were less persistent than nonsmokers, and R. A. Brown, C. W. Lejuez, C. W. Kahler, and D. R. Strong (2002) found that smokers who had previously abstained for 3 months were more persistent than those who had never quit. The present study extended these findings by using a prospective design. A pretreatment measure of task persistence (mirror tracing) completed by 144 smokers predicted sustained abstinence throughout 12 months of follow-up. Moreover, persistence predicted outcome independent of other significant predictors: gender, nicotine dependence, negative affect, and self-efficacy.

  8. Male factors in ART outcome prediction.

    PubMed

    Brincat, Dale; Catania, Sarah; Wismayer, Pierre Schembri; Calleja-Agius, Jean

    2015-03-01

    Paternal influences on reproduction are significant causing about half of the infertile couples to turn to assisted reproductive techniques. Due to the increasing proportion of infertile couples adopting to conceive by in vitro fertilisation (IVF), predicting outcomes is of ever increasing importance. Since pregnancy rates following IVF are still quite low, prognostic information is very helpful in clinical decisions. Although significant research has been done on the maternal influence, male factor infertility is relatively understudied. To date, potential predictors include: method of fertilisation, age, reactive oxygen species, sperm quality parameters and DNA fragmentation. Predictors under investigation which show promising signs, even though there is no clear cut consensus on the predictive value to date include: folate and homocysteine, anti müllerian hormone measurement, environmental factors, body mass index, smoking, male age, stress, some subsets of antisperm antibodies and epigenetic features.

  9. Long-Term Outcome After Ablation of Right Atrial Tachyarrhythmias After the Surgical Repair of Congenital and Acquired Heart Disease.

    PubMed

    Anguera, Ignasi; Dallaglio, Paolo; Macías, Rosa; Jiménez-Candil, Javier; Peinado, Rafael; García-Seara, Javier; Arcocha, Mari Fe; Herreros, Benito; Quesada, Aurelio; Hernández-Madrid, Antonio; Alvarez, Miguel; Filgueiras, David; Matía, Roberto; Cequier, Angel; Sabaté, Xavier

    2015-06-15

    Atrial myopathy, atriotomies, and fibrotic scars are the pathophysiological substrate of lines of conduction block, promoting atrial macroreentry. The aim of this study was to determine the acute and long-term outcome of radiofrequency catheter ablation (RFCA) for right atrial tachyarrhythmia (AT) in adults after cardiac surgery for congenital heart disease (CHD) and acquired heart disease (AHD) and predictors of these outcomes. Clinical records of adults after surgery for heart disease undergoing RFCA of right-sided AT were analyzed retrospectively. Multivariate analyses identified clinical and procedural factors predicting acute and long-term outcomes. A total of 372 patients (69% men; age 61 ± 15 years) after surgical repair of CHD (n = 111) or AHD (n = 261) were studied. Cavotricuspid isthmus-dependent atrial flutter (CTI-AFL) was observed in 300 patients and non-CTI-AFL in 72 patients. Ablation was successful in 349 cases (94%). During a mean follow-up of 51 ± 30 months, recurrences were observed in 24.5% of patients. Multivariate analysis showed that non-CTI-AFL (hazard ratio [HR] 1.78, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.1 to 2.9) and CHD (HR 1.75, 95% CI 1.07 to 2.9) were independent predictors of long-term recurrences. Multivariate analysis showed that female gender (HR 2.29, 95% CI 1.6 to 3.3), surgery for AHD (HR 95% 2.31, 95% CI 1.5 to 3.7), and left atrial dilatation (HR 2.1, 95% CI 1.3 to 3.2) were independent predictors of long-term atrial fibrillation. In conclusion, RFCA of right-sided AT after cardiac surgery is associated with high acute success rates and significant long-term recurrences. Non-CTI-dependent AFL and surgery for CHD are at higher risk of recurrence. Atrial fibrillation is common during follow-up, particularly in patients with AHD and enlarged left atrium. PMID:25896151

  10. Atrial conduction delay predicts atrial fibrillation in paroxysmal supraventricular tachycardia patients after radiofrequency catheter ablation.

    PubMed

    Xu, Zhen-Xing; Zhong, Jing-Quan; Zhang, Wei; Yue, Xin; Rong, Bing; Zhu, Qing; Zheng, Zhaotong; Zhang, Yun

    2014-06-01

    This study aimed to assess whether intra- and inter-atrial conduction delay could predict atrial fibrillation (AF) for paroxysmal supraventricular tachycardia (PSVT) patients after successful treatment by radiofrequency catheter ablation (RFCA). Echocardiography examination was performed on 524 consecutive PSVT patients (15 patients were excluded). Left atrial dimension, right atrial diameter and intra- and inter-atrial conduction delay were measured before ablation. Patients were divided into group A (n = 32): occurrence of AF after the ablation and group B (n = 477): remained in sinus rhythm during follow-up. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed to estimate the predictive value of intra- and inter-atrial conduction delay. Both intra- and inter-atrial conduction delay were higher in group A than in group B (4.79 ± 0.30 msec vs. 4.56 ± 0.32 msec; 21.98 ± 1.32 msec vs. 20.01 ± 1.33; p < 0.05). Binary logistic regression analysis showed that intra- and inter-atrial conduction were significant influential factors for the occurrence of AF (odds ratio [OR] = 13.577, 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.469-48.914; OR = 2.569, 95% CI, 1.909-3.459, p < 0.05). The ROC cure analysis revealed that intra-atrial conduction delay ≥ 4.45 msec and inter-atrial conduction delay ≥ 20.65 were the most optimal cut-off value for predicting AF in PSVT patients after RFCA. In conclusion, this is the first study to show that the intra- and inter-atrial conduction delay could effectively predict AF in post-ablation PSVT patients.

  11. Characterization of tracked radiofrequency ablation in phantom

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, Chun-Cheng R.; Miga, Michael I.; Galloway, Robert L.

    2007-10-15

    In radiofrequency ablation (RFA), successful therapy requires accurate, image-guided placement of the ablation device in a location selected by a predictive treatment plan. Current planning methods rely on geometric models of ablations that are not sensitive to underlying physical processes in RFA. Implementing plans based on computational models of RFA with image-guided techniques, however, has not been well characterized. To study the use of computational models of RFA in planning needle placement, this work compared ablations performed with an optically tracked RFA device with corresponding models of the ablations. The calibration of the tracked device allowed the positions of distal features of the device, particularly the tips of the needle electrodes, to be determined to within 1.4{+-}0.6 mm of uncertainty. Ablations were then performed using the tracked device in a phantom system based on an agarose-albumin mixture. Images of the sliced phantom obtained from the ablation experiments were then compared with the predictions of a bioheat transfer model of RFA, which used the positional data of the tracked device obtained during ablation. The model was demonstrated to predict 90% of imaged pixels classified as being ablated. The discrepancies between model predictions and observations were analyzed and attributed to needle tracking inaccuracy as well as to uncertainties in model parameters. The results suggest the feasibility of using finite element modeling to plan ablations with predictable outcomes when implemented using tracked RFA.

  12. A novel parameter for predicting arterial fusion and ablation in finite element models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fankell, Douglas; Kramer, Eric; Taylor, Kenneth; Ferguson, Virginia; Rentschler, Mark E.

    2015-03-01

    Tissue fusion devices apply heat and pressure to ligate or ablate blood vessels during surgery. Although this process is widely used, a predictive finite element (FE) model incorporating both structural mechanics and heat transfer has not been developed, limiting improvements to empirical evidence. This work presents the development of a novel damage parameter, which incorporates stress, water content and temperature, and demonstrates its application in a FE model. A FE model, using the Holzapfel-Gasser-Ogden strain energy function to represent the structural mechanics and equations developed by Cezo to model water content and heat transfer, was created to simulate the fusion or ablation of a porcine splenic artery. Using state variables, the stresses, temperature and water content are recorded and combined to create a single parameter at each integration point. The parameter is then compared to a critical value (determined through experiments). If the critical value is reached, the element loses all strength. If the value is not reached, no change occurs. Little experimental data exists for validation, but the resulting stresses, temperatures and water content fall within ranges predicted by prior work. Due to the lack of published data, additional experimental studies are being conducted to rigorously validate and accurately determine the critical value. Ultimately, a novel method for demonstrating tissue damage and fusion in a FE model is presented, providing the first step towards in-depth FE models simulating fusion and ablation of arteries.

  13. Radiofrequency catheter ablation for idiopathic right ventricular tachycardia with special reference to morphological variation and long-term outcome.

    PubMed Central

    Chinushi, M.; Aizawa, Y.; Takahashi, K.; Kitazawa, H.; Shibata, A.

    1997-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To assess the long term outcome of radiofrequency (RF) catheter ablation for idiopathic ventricular tachycardia (VT) originating from the outflow tract of the right ventricle, with special reference to the morphological variation in the VT-QRS complexes. PATIENTS: 13 patients whose ventricular tachycardia was treated with RF ablation were followed up more than 18 months after RF ablation. RESULTS: Endocardial mapping revealed the various extensions of ventricular tachycardia origin (from 0.5 x 0.5 cm to 2.0 x 2.0 cm) in which the earliest local electrogram was recorded during ventricular tachycardia. In all five tachycardias from a relatively wider origin (more than 0.5 x 0.5 cm) and in four of eight from a narrow origin (< 0.5 x 0.5 cm), subtle morphological variation in the VT-QRS complexes was observed. In tachycardias with morphological variation, the local electrogram at the tachycardia origin also showed concomitant variation in morphology and activation sequence. Ventricular tachycardia from a narrow site was eliminated by RF ablation to the confined site, but a larger number of RF applications was required in tachycardias from a wider origin. All 13 tachycardias were successfully ablated by RF current, and during the follow up period of 28.2 (SD 7.2) months, recurrence was observed in only one patient who had a wider origin. CONCLUSIONS: Long term efficacy of RF ablation was excellent in idiopathic ventricular tachycardia originating from the outflow tract of the right ventricle. Subtle morphological variations were frequently observed in this type of ventricular tachycardia, and about half of them represented a relatively wider arrhythmogenic area. PMID:9391287

  14. Serum Galectin-3 Levels Predict Recurrences after Ablation of Atrial Fibrillation

    PubMed Central

    Clementy, Nicolas; Benhenda, Nazih; Piver, Eric; Pierre, Bertrand; Bernard, Anne; Fauchier, Laurent; Pages, Jean-Christophe; Babuty, Dominique

    2016-01-01

    Galectin-3 is a biomarker of fibrosis and atrial remodeling, involved in the mechanisms of initiation and maintenance of atrial fibrillation (AF). We sought to study the accuracy of galectin-3 level in predicting recurrences of AF after ablation. Serum concentrations of galectin-3 were determined in a consecutive series of patients addressed for AF ablation in our center. After a 3-month blanking period, recurrences of atrial arrhythmias were collected during the first year in all patients, using Holter monitoring at 3, 6 months and 12 months. A total of 160 patients were included, with a mean galectin-3 rate was 14.4 ± 5.6 ng/mL. At 12-month, 55 patients (34%) had reexperienced sustained atrial arrhythmia. Only higher galectin-3 level (HR = 1.07 [1.01–1.12], p = 0.02) and larger left atrial diameter (HR = 1.07 [1.03–1.12], p = 0.001) independently predicted recurrence. Patients with both galectin-3 level <15 ng/mL and left atrial diameter <40 millimeters had a 1-year arrhythmia-free survival rate − after a single procedure without anti-arrhythmic drug − of 91%, as compared with 41% in patients with galectin-3 ≥ 15 and left trial diameter ≥40 (p < 0.0001), whether AF was paroxysmal or persistent. Galectin-3 and left atrial diameters, rather than clinical presentation of AF, predict recurrences after ablation. PMID:27677964

  15. Predictable surface ablation of dielectrics with few-cycle laser pulse even beyond air ionization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pasquier, C.; Sentis, M.; Utéza, O.; Sanner, N.

    2016-08-01

    We study surface ablation of dielectrics with single-shot few-cycle optical pulse (˜10 fs) in air, at intensities below and above the onset of air ionization. We perform 3D analysis and careful calibration of the fluence distribution at the laser focus, spanning from linear- to nonlinear- focusing regimes, enabling to thoroughly characterize the severe limitation of the fluence delivered onto the sample surface upon increase of incident pulse energy. Despite significant beam reshaping taking place at high fluence, we demonstrate that it is nevertheless possible to confidently predict the resulting crater profiles on fused silica surface, even in the regime of filamentation.

  16. FBG Sensor for Contact Level Monitoring and Prediction of Perforation in Cardiac Ablation

    PubMed Central

    Ho, Siu Chun Michael; Razavi, Mehdi; Nazeri, Alireza; Song, Gangbing

    2012-01-01

    Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common type of arrhythmia, and is characterized by a disordered contractile activity of the atria (top chambers of the heart). A popular treatment for AF is radiofrequency (RF) ablation. In about 2.4% of cardiac RF ablation procedures, the catheter is accidently pushed through the heart wall due to the application of excessive force. Despite the various capabilities of currently available technology, there has yet to be any data establishing how cardiac perforation can be reliably predicted. Thus, two new FBG based sensor prototypes were developed to monitor contact levels and predict perforation. Two live sheep were utilized during the study. It was observed during operation that peaks appeared in rhythm with the heart rate whenever firm contact was made between the sensor and the endocardial wall. The magnitude of these peaks varied with pressure applied by the operator. Lastly, transmural perforation of the left atrial wall was characterized by a visible loading phase and a rapid signal drop-off correlating to perforation. A possible pre-perforation signal was observed for the epoxy-based sensor in the form of a slight signal reversal (12–26% of loading phase magnitude) prior to perforation (occurring over 8 s). PMID:22368507

  17. Combining clinical variables to optimize prediction of antidepressant treatment outcomes.

    PubMed

    Iniesta, Raquel; Malki, Karim; Maier, Wolfgang; Rietschel, Marcella; Mors, Ole; Hauser, Joanna; Henigsberg, Neven; Dernovsek, Mojca Zvezdana; Souery, Daniel; Stahl, Daniel; Dobson, Richard; Aitchison, Katherine J; Farmer, Anne; Lewis, Cathryn M; McGuffin, Peter; Uher, Rudolf

    2016-07-01

    The outcome of treatment with antidepressants varies markedly across people with the same diagnosis. A clinically significant prediction of outcomes could spare the frustration of trial and error approach and improve the outcomes of major depressive disorder through individualized treatment selection. It is likely that a combination of multiple predictors is needed to achieve such prediction. We used elastic net regularized regression to optimize prediction of symptom improvement and remission during treatment with escitalopram or nortriptyline and to identify contributing predictors from a range of demographic and clinical variables in 793 adults with major depressive disorder. A combination of demographic and clinical variables, with strong contributions from symptoms of depressed mood, reduced interest, decreased activity, indecisiveness, pessimism and anxiety significantly predicted treatment outcomes, explaining 5-10% of variance in symptom improvement with escitalopram. Similar combinations of variables predicted remission with area under the curve 0.72, explaining approximately 15% of variance (pseudo R(2)) in who achieves remission, with strong contributions from body mass index, appetite, interest-activity symptom dimension and anxious-somatizing depression subtype. Escitalopram-specific outcome prediction was more accurate than generic outcome prediction, and reached effect sizes that were near or above a previously established benchmark for clinical significance. Outcome prediction on the nortriptyline arm did not significantly differ from chance. These results suggest that easily obtained demographic and clinical variables can predict therapeutic response to escitalopram with clinically meaningful accuracy, suggesting a potential for individualized prescription of this antidepressant drug. PMID:27089522

  18. Does Television Viewership Predict Presidential Election Outcomes?

    PubMed Central

    Barfar, Arash; Padmanabhan, Balaji

    2015-01-01

    Abstract The days of surprise about actual election outcomes in the big data world are likely to be fewer in the years ahead, at least to those who may have access to such data. In this paper we highlight the potential for forecasting the Unites States presidential election outcomes at the state and county levels based solely on the data about viewership of television programs. A key consideration for relevance is that given the infrequent nature of elections, such models are useful only if they can be trained using recent data on viewership. However, the target variable (election outcome) is usually not known until the election is over. Related to this, we show here that such models may be trained with the television viewership data in the “safe” states (the ones where the outcome can be assumed even in the days preceding elections) to potentially forecast the outcomes in the swing states. In addition to their potential to forecast, these models could also help campaigns target programs for advertisements. Nearly two billion dollars were spent on television advertising in the 2012 presidential race, suggesting potential for big data–driven optimization of campaign spending. PMID:26487986

  19. Predicting the Outcome of Psychogeriatric Day Care.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gilleard, C. J.

    1985-01-01

    Examined caregivers' problems, strain, relationship with their dependent, and attitudes toward day care in determining the outcome placements of psychogeriatric day hospital patients. Examined features contributing to the demented elderly's continued attendance at the day hospital in order to determine implications for such services. (Author/NRB)

  20. Predicting School Referenda Outcomes: Answers from Illinois.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lentz, Corliss

    1999-01-01

    Uses ordinary least-squares multivariate regression analysis to determine if jurisdictional types vary in their willingness to increase taxation for schools, employing 892 education fund referenda conducted in Illinois from 1981 to 1989. Outcomes do differ by jurisdiction type. The strongest predictor is willingness to pay for higher taxes. (29…

  1. Viscous code prediction of re-entry vehicle roll torque based on ablated surface topology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Szostowski, D. J.; Lowe, D. L.; Nestler, D. E.

    1982-06-01

    A new approach is developed for modeling roll torque due to ablated surface features of tape-wrapped, carbon-phenolic heatshields. The approach stems from preferential and random asymmetric topological characteristics observed on material specimens from ground test models and recovered re-entry vehicles. Roll torque contributions from each type of surface feature are determined from aerodynamic models coupled to an integral viscous technique. The dominant roll-producing mechanisms are shown to be warp yarn bias surface roughness and the formation of asymmetric char ledges. Comparisons with flight test roll histories validate the framework for the roll modeling technique, including predictions for a class of vehicle differing substantially from the one for which the model was developed.

  2. Outcomes of Stereotactic Ablative Radiotherapy in Patients With Potentially Operable Stage I Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

    SciTech Connect

    Lagerwaard, Frank J.; Verstegen, Naomi E.; Haasbeek, Cornelis J.A.; Slotman, Ben J.; Paul, Marinus A.; Smit, Egbert F.; Senan, Suresh

    2012-05-01

    Background: Approximately two-thirds of patients with early-stage non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) in The Netherlands currently undergo surgical resection. As an increasing number of fit patients have elected to undergo stereotactic ablative radiotherapy (SABR) in recent years, we studied outcomes after SABR in patients with potentially operable stage I NSCLC. Methods and Materials: In an institutional prospective database collected since 2003, 25% of lung SABR cases (n = 177 patients) were found to be potentially operable when the following patients were excluded: those with (1) synchronous lung tumors or other malignancy, (2) prior high-dose radiotherapy/pneumonectomy, (3) chronic obstructive pulmonary disease with a severity score of 3-4 according to the Global initiative for Obstructive Lung Disease classification. (4) a performance score of {>=}3, and (5) other comorbidity precluding surgery. Study patients included 101 males and 76 females, with a median age of 76 years old, 60% of whom were staged as T1 and 40% of whom were T2. Median Charlson comorbidity score was 2 (range, 0-5). A SABR dose of 60 Gy was delivered using a risk-adapted scheme in 3, 5, or 8 fractions, depending on tumor size and location. Follow-up chest computed tomography scans were obtained at 3, 6, and 12 months and yearly thereafter. Results: Median follow-up was 31.5 months; and median overall survival (OS) was 61.5 months, with 1- and 3-year survival rates of 94.7% and 84.7%, respectively. OS rates at 3 years in patients with (n = 59) and without (n = 118) histological diagnosis did not differ significantly (96% versus 81%, respectively, p = 0.39). Post-SABR 30-day mortality was 0%, while predicted 30-day mortality for a lobectomy, derived using the Thoracoscore predictive model (Falcoz PE et al. J Thorac Cardiovasc Surg 2007;133:325-332), would have been 2.6%. Local control rates at 1 and 3 years were 98% and 93%, respectively. Regional and distant failure rates at 3 years were each

  3. Microwave ablation of hepatocellular carcinoma as first-line treatment: long term outcomes and prognostic factors in 221 patients.

    PubMed

    Wang, Tao; Lu, Xiao-Jie; Chi, Jia-Chang; Ding, Min; Zhang, Yuan; Tang, Xiao-Yin; Li, Ping; Zhang, Li; Zhang, Xiao-Yu; Zhai, Bo

    2016-01-01

    This retrospective study aimed at evaluating the long-term outcomes and prognostic factors of microwave ablation (MWA) as a first-line treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). 221 consecutive patients receiving MWA in our center between October 11, 2010 and December 31, 2013 were enrolled. Technique effectiveness was evaluated one month post-ablation. Initial complete ablation (CA1(st)) was gained in 201 (90.95%) patients, secondary CA (CA2(nd)) in 8 (3.62%) patients and the remaining 12 (5.43%) patients suffered from incomplete ablation (IA2(nd)) after two sessions of MWA. Patients with tumor size >5 cm were less likely to gain CA1(st). Procedure-related complications were recorded and no procedure-related death occurred. 22 (10.4%) complications occurred with 8 (3.8%) being major ones. Tumor characteristics (size, number, location) do not significantly influence complication rates. After a median follow-up of 41.0 (ranging 25.0-63.5) months, the median RFS and OS was 14.0 months (95% CI: 9.254-18.746) and 41.0 months (95% CI: 33.741-48.259) respectively. Multivariate analysis identified two significant prognosticators (levels of alpha fetal protein [AFP] and gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase [GGT]) of RFS and five significant prognosticators (tumor number, tumor size, AFP, GGT and recurrence type) of OS. In conclusion, MWA provides high technique effectiveness rate and is well tolerated in patients with HCC as a first-line treatment. PMID:27620527

  4. Microwave ablation of hepatocellular carcinoma as first-line treatment: long term outcomes and prognostic factors in 221 patients

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Tao; Lu, Xiao-Jie; Chi, Jia-Chang; Ding, Min; Zhang, Yuan; Tang, Xiao-Yin; Li, Ping; Zhang, Li; Zhang, Xiao-Yu; Zhai, Bo

    2016-01-01

    This retrospective study aimed at evaluating the long-term outcomes and prognostic factors of microwave ablation (MWA) as a first-line treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). 221 consecutive patients receiving MWA in our center between October 11, 2010 and December 31, 2013 were enrolled. Technique effectiveness was evaluated one month post-ablation. Initial complete ablation (CA1st) was gained in 201 (90.95%) patients, secondary CA (CA2nd) in 8 (3.62%) patients and the remaining 12 (5.43%) patients suffered from incomplete ablation (IA2nd) after two sessions of MWA. Patients with tumor size >5 cm were less likely to gain CA1st. Procedure-related complications were recorded and no procedure-related death occurred. 22 (10.4%) complications occurred with 8 (3.8%) being major ones. Tumor characteristics (size, number, location) do not significantly influence complication rates. After a median follow-up of 41.0 (ranging 25.0–63.5) months, the median RFS and OS was 14.0 months (95% CI: 9.254–18.746) and 41.0 months (95% CI: 33.741–48.259) respectively. Multivariate analysis identified two significant prognosticators (levels of alpha fetal protein [AFP] and gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase [GGT]) of RFS and five significant prognosticators (tumor number, tumor size, AFP, GGT and recurrence type) of OS. In conclusion, MWA provides high technique effectiveness rate and is well tolerated in patients with HCC as a first-line treatment. PMID:27620527

  5. Protein-Based Urine Test Predicts Kidney Transplant Outcomes

    MedlinePlus

    ... News Releases News Release Thursday, August 22, 2013 Protein-based urine test predicts kidney transplant outcomes NIH- ... supporting development of noninvasive tests. Levels of a protein in the urine of kidney transplant recipients can ...

  6. Sense of Coherence Predicts Employment Outcomes after Job Loss

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vastamaki, Jaana; Paul, Karsten I.; Moser, Klaus

    2011-01-01

    This study investigated sense of coherence (SOC) as a potential predictor of employment outcomes of unemployed job seekers. Ninety-eight unemployed persons were surveyed at 2 measurement points 6 months apart. The findings showed that strong SOC at baseline predicted positive outcomes (reemployment or being a student) 6 months later. SOC evidently…

  7. High-Intensity Focused Ultrasound Ablation of Uterine Fibroids – Potential Impact on Fertility and Pregnancy Outcome

    PubMed Central

    Bohlmann, M. K.; Hoellen, F.; Hunold, P.; David, M.

    2014-01-01

    Laparoscopic myomectomy is regarded as the gold standard for women with symptomatic fibroids who wish to become pregnant. High-intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU or MRgFUS) ablation of uterine fibroids is also being discussed as a non-surgical, minimally invasive, therapeutic option. This review examines the available data on the impact of HIFU/MRgFUS on fertility and pregnancy, focusing particularly on potential direct side-effects of this type of intervention on ovaries, fallopian tubes and uterus and potential late effects on pregnancy and birth, based on the current literature. All pregnancies after HIFU/MRgFUS published to date (around 100 cases) were evaluated. The published case series suggest that HIFU/MRgFUS ablation has no impact on the rate of miscarriages or other obstetrical outcome parameters. Because no prospective studies exist which permit firm conclusions to be drawn on the impact of HIFU/MRgFUS on fertility and pregnancy outcome in women with symptomatic fibroids, this approach is currently only recommended for women with suspected fertility problems due to uterine fibroids who either decline surgery or who have an unacceptably high surgical risk. PMID:24741124

  8. Nephrolithometric Scoring Systems to Predict Outcomes of Percutaneous Nephrolithotomy

    PubMed Central

    Vernez, Simone L; Okhunov, Zhamshid; Motamedinia, Piruz; Bird, Vincent; Okeke, Zeph; Smith, Arthur

    2016-01-01

    Currently, there is no single agreement upon an ideal predictive model that characterizes the complexity of renal stones and predicts surgical outcomes following percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL). New predictive tools have recently emerged to systematically and quantitatively assess kidney stone complexity to predict outcomes following PCNL: the Guy’s Stone Score, the CROES nomogram, S.T.O.N.E. nephrolithometry, and S-ReSC score. An ideal scoring system should include variables that both influence surgical planning and are predictive of postoperative outcomes. This review discusses the strengths, weaknesses, and commonalities of each of the above scoring systems. Additionally, we propose future directions for the development and analysis of surgical treatment for stone disease, namely, the importance of assessing radiation exposure and patient quality of life when counseling patients on treatment options. PMID:27162508

  9. Macaques can predict social outcomes from facial expressions.

    PubMed

    Waller, Bridget M; Whitehouse, Jamie; Micheletta, Jérôme

    2016-09-01

    There is widespread acceptance that facial expressions are useful in social interactions, but empirical demonstration of their adaptive function has remained elusive. Here, we investigated whether macaques can use the facial expressions of others to predict the future outcomes of social interaction. Crested macaques (Macaca nigra) were shown an approach between two unknown individuals on a touchscreen and were required to choose between one of two potential social outcomes. The facial expressions of the actors were manipulated in the last frame of the video. One subject reached the experimental stage and accurately predicted different social outcomes depending on which facial expressions the actors displayed. The bared-teeth display (homologue of the human smile) was most strongly associated with predicted friendly outcomes. Contrary to our predictions, screams and threat faces were not associated more with conflict outcomes. Overall, therefore, the presence of any facial expression (compared to neutral) caused the subject to choose friendly outcomes more than negative outcomes. Facial expression in general, therefore, indicated a reduced likelihood of social conflict. The findings dispute traditional theories that view expressions only as indicators of present emotion and instead suggest that expressions form part of complex social interactions where individuals think beyond the present.

  10. Macaques can predict social outcomes from facial expressions.

    PubMed

    Waller, Bridget M; Whitehouse, Jamie; Micheletta, Jérôme

    2016-09-01

    There is widespread acceptance that facial expressions are useful in social interactions, but empirical demonstration of their adaptive function has remained elusive. Here, we investigated whether macaques can use the facial expressions of others to predict the future outcomes of social interaction. Crested macaques (Macaca nigra) were shown an approach between two unknown individuals on a touchscreen and were required to choose between one of two potential social outcomes. The facial expressions of the actors were manipulated in the last frame of the video. One subject reached the experimental stage and accurately predicted different social outcomes depending on which facial expressions the actors displayed. The bared-teeth display (homologue of the human smile) was most strongly associated with predicted friendly outcomes. Contrary to our predictions, screams and threat faces were not associated more with conflict outcomes. Overall, therefore, the presence of any facial expression (compared to neutral) caused the subject to choose friendly outcomes more than negative outcomes. Facial expression in general, therefore, indicated a reduced likelihood of social conflict. The findings dispute traditional theories that view expressions only as indicators of present emotion and instead suggest that expressions form part of complex social interactions where individuals think beyond the present. PMID:27155662

  11. Action-outcome learning and prediction shape the window of simultaneity of audiovisual outcomes.

    PubMed

    Desantis, Andrea; Haggard, Patrick

    2016-08-01

    To form a coherent representation of the objects around us, the brain must group the different sensory features composing these objects. Here, we investigated whether actions contribute in this grouping process. In particular, we assessed whether action-outcome learning and prediction contribute to audiovisual temporal binding. Participants were presented with two audiovisual pairs: one pair was triggered by a left action, and the other by a right action. In a later test phase, the audio and visual components of these pairs were presented at different onset times. Participants judged whether they were simultaneous or not. To assess the role of action-outcome prediction on audiovisual simultaneity, each action triggered either the same audiovisual pair as in the learning phase ('predicted' pair), or the pair that had previously been associated with the other action ('unpredicted' pair). We found the time window within which auditory and visual events appeared simultaneous increased for predicted compared to unpredicted pairs. However, no change in audiovisual simultaneity was observed when audiovisual pairs followed visual cues, rather than voluntary actions. This suggests that only action-outcome learning promotes temporal grouping of audio and visual effects. In a second experiment we observed that changes in audiovisual simultaneity do not only depend on our ability to predict what outcomes our actions generate, but also on learning the delay between the action and the multisensory outcome. When participants learned that the delay between action and audiovisual pair was variable, the window of audiovisual simultaneity for predicted pairs increased, relative to a fixed action-outcome pair delay. This suggests that participants learn action-based predictions of audiovisual outcome, and adapt their temporal perception of outcome events based on such predictions. PMID:27131076

  12. Action-outcome learning and prediction shape the window of simultaneity of audiovisual outcomes.

    PubMed

    Desantis, Andrea; Haggard, Patrick

    2016-08-01

    To form a coherent representation of the objects around us, the brain must group the different sensory features composing these objects. Here, we investigated whether actions contribute in this grouping process. In particular, we assessed whether action-outcome learning and prediction contribute to audiovisual temporal binding. Participants were presented with two audiovisual pairs: one pair was triggered by a left action, and the other by a right action. In a later test phase, the audio and visual components of these pairs were presented at different onset times. Participants judged whether they were simultaneous or not. To assess the role of action-outcome prediction on audiovisual simultaneity, each action triggered either the same audiovisual pair as in the learning phase ('predicted' pair), or the pair that had previously been associated with the other action ('unpredicted' pair). We found the time window within which auditory and visual events appeared simultaneous increased for predicted compared to unpredicted pairs. However, no change in audiovisual simultaneity was observed when audiovisual pairs followed visual cues, rather than voluntary actions. This suggests that only action-outcome learning promotes temporal grouping of audio and visual effects. In a second experiment we observed that changes in audiovisual simultaneity do not only depend on our ability to predict what outcomes our actions generate, but also on learning the delay between the action and the multisensory outcome. When participants learned that the delay between action and audiovisual pair was variable, the window of audiovisual simultaneity for predicted pairs increased, relative to a fixed action-outcome pair delay. This suggests that participants learn action-based predictions of audiovisual outcome, and adapt their temporal perception of outcome events based on such predictions.

  13. Long-term outcomes after ablation of persistent atrial fibrillation: an observational study over 6 years

    PubMed Central

    El-Kadri, Moutaz; Haq, Iram; Das, Moloy; Modi, Simon; Snowdon, Richard; Hall, Mark; Waktare, Johan EP; Todd, Derick M; Gupta, Dhiraj

    2016-01-01

    Objectives To address the limited long-term outcome data for catheter ablation (CA) of persistent atrial fibrillation (PeAF), we analysed consecutive ablations performed at our centre from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2010 and followed patients prospectively until January 2014. Methods Both arrhythmia recurrence and symptom relief were assessed. Follow-up data were collected from hospital records, supplemented by data from general practitioners and referring hospitals. At the end of the follow-up period, all patients were contacted by phone to determine their up-to-date clinical condition. Results 188 consecutive patients with PeAF (157 male, mean age 57.3±9.7 years, 20% with long-standing PeAF) underwent a mean of 1.75 procedures (range 1–4). Telephone follow-up was achieved for 77% of surviving patients. Over a mean follow-up of 46±16 months (range 4–72), 139 (75%) patients experienced arrhythmia recurrence after a single procedure and 90 (48%) after their final procedure. Median time to first recurrence was 210 days (range 91–1850). 71% of recurrences were within the first year following ablation and 91% within 2 years. At final follow-up, 82% of patients reported symptomatic improvement. 7 (2.3%) major complications occurred, and there was no procedure-related death or stroke. Conclusions CA for PeAF is safe with a low rate of complications. Over a follow-up period of up to 6 years, a large majority of patients experience significant symptomatic improvement but recurrence after the initial procedure is the norm rather than the exception. 2 years' follow-up is sufficient to observe 90% of AF recurrences, but recurrence can occur even after 5 years' remission. PMID:27547426

  14. Gesture Performance in Schizophrenia Predicts Functional Outcome After 6 Months

    PubMed Central

    Walther, Sebastian; Eisenhardt, Sarah; Bohlhalter, Stephan; Vanbellingen, Tim; Müri, René; Strik, Werner; Stegmayer, Katharina

    2016-01-01

    The functional outcome of schizophrenia is heterogeneous and markers of the course are missing. Functional outcome is associated with social cognition and negative symptoms. Gesture performance and nonverbal social perception are critically impaired in schizophrenia. Here, we tested whether gesture performance or nonverbal social perception could predict functional outcome and the ability to adequately perform relevant skills of everyday function (functional capacity) after 6 months. In a naturalistic longitudinal study, 28 patients with schizophrenia completed tests of nonverbal communication at baseline and follow-up. In addition, functional outcome, social and occupational functioning, as well as functional capacity at follow-up were assessed. Gesture performance and nonverbal social perception at baseline predicted negative symptoms, functional outcome, and functional capacity at 6-month follow-up. Gesture performance predicted functional outcome beyond the baseline measure of functioning. Patients with gesture deficits at baseline had stable negative symptoms and experienced a decline in social functioning. While in patients without gesture deficits, negative symptom severity decreased and social functioning remained stable. Thus, a simple test of hand gesture performance at baseline may indicate favorable outcomes in short-term follow-up. The results further support the importance of nonverbal communication skills in subjects with schizophrenia. PMID:27566843

  15. Cryoballoon or radiofrequency ablation for symptomatic paroxysmal atrial fibrillation: reintervention, rehospitalization, and quality-of-life outcomes in the FIRE AND ICE trial

    PubMed Central

    Kuck, Karl-Heinz; Fürnkranz, Alexander; Chun, K.R. Julian; Metzner, Andreas; Ouyang, Feifan; Schlüter, Michael; Elvan, Arif; Lim, Hae W.; Kueffer, Fred J.; Arentz, Thomas; Albenque, Jean-Paul; Tondo, Claudio; Kühne, Michael; Sticherling, Christian; Brugada, Josep

    2016-01-01

    Aims The primary safety and efficacy endpoints of the randomized FIRE AND ICE trial have recently demonstrated non-inferiority of cryoballoon vs. radiofrequency current (RFC) catheter ablation in patients with drug-refractory symptomatic paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (AF). The aim of the current study was to assess outcome parameters that are important for the daily clinical management of patients using key secondary analyses. Specifically, reinterventions, rehospitalizations, and quality-of-life were examined in this randomized trial of cryoballoon vs. RFC catheter ablation. Methods and results Patients (374 subjects in the cryoballoon group and 376 subjects in the RFC group) were evaluated in the modified intention-to-treat cohort. After the index ablation, log-rank testing over 1000 days of follow-up demonstrated that there were statistically significant differences in favour of cryoballoon ablation with respect to repeat ablations (11.8% cryoballoon vs. 17.6% RFC; P = 0.03), direct-current cardioversions (3.2% cryoballoon vs. 6.4% RFC; P = 0.04), all-cause rehospitalizations (32.6% cryoballoon vs. 41.5% RFC; P = 0.01), and cardiovascular rehospitalizations (23.8% cryoballoon vs. 35.9% RFC; P < 0.01). There were no statistical differences between groups in the quality-of-life surveys (both mental and physical) as measured by the Short Form-12 health survey and the EuroQol five-dimension questionnaire. There was an improvement in both mental and physical quality-of-life in all patients that began at 6 months after the index ablation and was maintained throughout the 30 months of follow-up. Conclusion Patients treated with cryoballoon as opposed to RFC ablation had significantly fewer repeat ablations, direct-current cardioversions, all-cause rehospitalizations, and cardiovascular rehospitalizations during follow-up. Both patient groups improved in quality-of-life scores after AF ablation. Clinical trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT01490814

  16. Initial outcome following invasive cardiac electrophysiologic studies and radiofrequency ablation of atrial fibrillation

    PubMed Central

    Uwanuruochi, Kelechukwu; Saravanan, Sabari; Ganasekar, Anita; Solomon, Benjamin S; Murugesan, Ravikumar; Shah, Ruchit A; Krishnamoorthy, Jaishankar; Pandurangi, Ulhas M

    2016-01-01

    Background: Cardiac electrophysiologic study and radiofrequency ablation (RFA) have become an established mode of treatment for patients with refractory arrhythmias. These procedures are carried out regularly at the cardiac catheterization laboratory of Madras Medical Mission India. Objective: The purpose of this study was to evaluate our experience with cardiac electrophysiologic studies (EPS) and RFA catheter of atrial fibrillation (AF). Materials and Methods: This was a retrospective study carried out in the Cardiac Electrophysiology Department of the Institute of Cardiovascular Diseases, Madras Medical Mission, India. All cases diagnosed to have AF following cardiac EPS between January 2010 and April 2014 was selected for the study. The records, which were obtained from the Cardiac Electrophysiology Clinical Research Office of Madras Medical Mission, were reviewed. Forty-nine cases were chosen for analysis, using SPSS statistical software version 15. Results: There were 49 patients, 23 males and 26 females. The mean age was 57.53 years. Commonly associated diseases were diabetes mellitus 8 (16.3%), hypertension 18 (36.7%), and coronary heart disease 14 (28.5%). The ventricular rate was rapid most cases (91.2%). AF was diagnosed as being paroxysmal in 40 (81.6%), persistent in 5 (10.2%), chronic in 3 (6.1%), and lone in 1 (2.0%). Ablation was carried out in 28 (57.1%), the success rate being 90% for pulmonary vein isolation, and 90.9% for atrioventricular node ablation. Complication rate was 2.04%. Conclusions: Treatment of AF by RFA is highly effective and safe. PMID:27127736

  17. Renal Function Outcomes for Multifocal Renal Neoplasms Managed by Radiofrequency Ablation

    SciTech Connect

    Gupta, Pushpender Allen, Brian C. Chen, Michael Y. Childs, David D. Kota, Gopi Zagoria, Ronald J.

    2013-10-15

    Purpose: To evaluate renal function changes related to radiofrequency ablation (RFA) for the treatment of multifocal renal neoplasms. Methods: This is an institutional review board-approved, Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act compliant retrospective study of all patients treated with computed tomography guided RFA for multifocal renal neoplasms at one institution. Fifty-seven subjects, mean age 70 (range 37-88) years, underwent RFA of 169 renal neoplasms (average size 2.0 cm). Subjects had between 2 and 8 (mean 2.96) neoplasms ablated. Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was measured before and after RFA. Complications related to RFA were recorded. Results: eGFR decreased on average of 4.4 % per tumor treated and 6.7 % per ablation session (average 1.76 tumors treated per session). For subjects with the largest neoplasm measuring >3 cm, eGFR decreased an average of 14.5 % during the course of their treatment. If the largest neoplasm measured 2-3 cm, eGFR decreased an average of 7.7 %, and if the largest neoplasm measured <2 cm, eGFR decreased an average of 3.8 %. Subjects with reduced baseline renal function were more likely to have a greater decline in eGFR after RFA. There was a minor complication rate of 6.3 % (6 of 96 sessions), none of which required treatment, and a major complication rate of 4.2 % (4 of 96 sessions). Conclusion: RFA for the treatment of multifocal renal neoplasms results in mild decline of renal function.

  18. Cellular and Behavioral Outcomes of Dorsal Striatonigral Neuron Ablation: New Insights into Striatal Functions

    PubMed Central

    Révy, Delphine; Jaouen, Florence; Salin, Pascal; Melon, Christophe; Chabbert, Dorian; Tafi, Elisiana; Concetta, Lena; Langa, Francina; Amalric, Marianne; Kerkerian-Le Goff, Lydia; Marie, Hélène; Beurrier, Corinne

    2014-01-01

    The striatum is the input structure of the basal ganglia network that contains heterogeneous neuronal populations, including two populations of projecting neurons called the medium spiny neurons (MSNs), and different types of interneurons. We developed a transgenic mouse model enabling inducible ablation of the striatonigral MSNs constituting the direct pathway by expressing the human diphtheria toxin (DT) receptor under the control of the Slc35d3 gene promoter, a gene enriched in striatonigral MSNs. DT injection into the striatum triggered selective elimination of the majority of striatonigral MSNs. DT-mediated ablation of striatonigral MSNs caused selective loss of cholinergic interneurons in the dorsal striatum but not in the ventral striatum (nucleus accumbens), suggesting a region-specific critical role of the direct pathway in striatal cholinergic neuron homeostasis. Mice with DT injection into the dorsal striatum showed altered basal and cocaine-induced locomotion and dramatic reduction of L-DOPA-induced dyskinesia in the parkinsonian condition. In addition, these mice exhibited reduced anxiety, revealing a role of the dorsal striatum in the modulation of behaviors involving an emotional component, behaviors generally associated with limbic structures. Altogether, these results highlight the implication of the direct striatonigral pathway in the regulation of heterogeneous functions from cell survival to regulation of motor and emotion-associated behaviors. PMID:24903652

  19. Does the severity of diabetic retinopathy predict pregnancy outcome?

    PubMed

    Klein, B E; Klein, R; Meuer, S M; Moss, S E; Dalton, D D

    1988-01-01

    The authors sought to determine whether the severity of diabetic retinopathy is a predictor of subsequent pregnancy outcome. One hundred and seventy-nine pregnant diabetic women were evaluated in their first trimester of pregnancy. Stereoscopic color photographs of the ocular fundus were taken and graded by the Fundus Photography Reading Center. Thirty-nine women had no retinopathy, while 28 had proliferative retinopathy in the worse eye. The women's history and hospital delivery room charts were reviewed with regard to pregnancy outcome. Thirty-three pregnancies terminated with an adverse outcome. A logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate significant predictors of pregnancy outcome. Of maternal age, duration of diabetes, glycosylated hemoglobin, proteinuria, cigarette smoking status, and severity of diabetic retinopathy, only the last variable significantly predicted an adverse outcome. These data suggest that the severity of retinopathy should be considered when counseling a pregnant diabetic woman.

  20. Noninvasive Fibrosis Marker Can Predict Recurrence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma after Radiofrequency Ablation

    PubMed Central

    Chung, Hyun Ah; Kim, Jeong-Han; Hwang, Young; Choi, Hong Seok; Ko, Soon Young; Choe, Won Hyeok; Kwon, So Young

    2016-01-01

    Background/Aims: Tumor recurrence after curative therapy is common for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). As fibrosis and chronic inflammation contribute to the progression of HCC, we aimed to identify the predictive value of inflammatory and fibrosis markers for HCC recurrence after curative therapy using radiofrequency ablation (RFA). Materials and Methods: We retrospectively reviewed the records of patients with HCC treated with RFA between October 2005 and September 2013. The median duration of follow-up was 40 months (4–95 months). Inflammatory and fibrosis markers and demographic and clinical data were analyzed by Cox proportional hazards model using univariate and multivariate analyses and longitudinal analysis. Results: A total of 98 patients were included for analysis. There were 54 cases of HCC recurrence (55.1%). The aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI; 2.3 ± 1.8 vs. 1.3 ± 1.4, P = 0.018) was significantly higher in the recurrence group than in the recurrence-free group. In multivariate analysis, APRI (hazard ratio, 2.64; confidence interval, 1.488–4.714; P = 0.001) was an independent risk factor for tumor recurrence. In particular, patients with APRI >1.38 showed a higher recurrence rate than patients with APRI ≤1.38 (P < 0.001). Longitudinal analysis showed persistently higher APRI values when assessed 12 months after RFA in patients who developed recurrence during follow-up than those who remained recurrence-free. Conclusions: These findings show that a high APRI value is associated with HCC recurrence after RFA. Therefore, APRI could play an important role in predicting HCC recurrence after RFA. PMID:26831608

  1. Comparison of Physician-Predicted to Measured Low Vision Outcomes

    PubMed Central

    Chan, Tiffany L.; Goldstein, Judith E.; Massof, Robert W.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose To compare low vision rehabilitation (LVR) physicians’ predictions of the probability of success of LVR to patients’ self-reported outcomes after provision of usual outpatient LVR services; and to determine if patients’ traits influence physician ratings. Methods The Activity Inventory (AI), a self-report visual function questionnaire, was administered pre and post-LVR to 316 low vision patients served by 28 LVR centers that participated in a collaborative observational study. The physical component of the Short Form-36, Geriatric Depression Scale, and Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status were also administered pre-LVR to measure physical capability, depression and cognitive status. Following patient evaluation, 38 LVR physicians estimated the probability of outcome success (POS), using their own criteria. The POS ratings and change in functional ability were used to assess the effects of patients’ baseline traits on predicted outcomes. Results A regression analysis with a hierarchical random effects model showed no relationship between LVR physician POS estimates and AI-based outcomes. In another analysis, Kappa statistics were calculated to determine the probability of agreement between POS and AI-based outcomes for different outcome criteria. Across all comparisons, none of the kappa values were significantly different from 0, which indicates the rate of agreement is equivalent to chance. In an exploratory analysis, hierarchical mixed effects regression models show that POS ratings are associated with information about the patient’s cognitive functioning and the combination of visual acuity and functional ability, as opposed to visual acuity or functional ability alone. Conclusions Physicians’ predictions of LVR outcomes appear to be influenced by knowledge of patients’ cognitive functioning and the combination of visual acuity and functional ability - information physicians acquire from the patient’s history and examination. However

  2. Individual Factors Predicting Mental Health Court Diversion Outcome

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Verhaaff, Ashley; Scott, Hannah

    2015-01-01

    Objective: This study examined which individual factors predict mental health court diversion outcome among a sample of persons with mental illness participating in a postcharge diversion program. Method: The study employed secondary analysis of existing program records for 419 persons with mental illness in a court diversion program. Results:…

  3. Predicting Positive Outcomes for Students with Emotional Disturbance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nickerson, Amanda B.; Brosof, Amy M.; Shapiro, Valerie B.

    2004-01-01

    This longitudinal study assessed changes in skills for students with emotional disturbance (ED) over a one-year time period in a private special education school and examined variables that predicted positive outcomes for these students. At Time 1, teachers rated 84 students with ED using standardized behavior rating scales to assess problem…

  4. Learning Approaches, Demographic Factors to Predict Academic Outcomes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nguyen, Tuan Minh

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to predict academic outcome in math and math-related subjects using learning approaches and demographic factors. Design/Methodology/Approach: ASSIST was used as the instrumentation to measure learning approaches. The study was conducted in the International University of Vietnam with 616 participants. An…

  5. Potential biomarkers for predicting outcomes in CABG cardiothoracic surgeries

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    The variations in recovery time, complications, and survival among cardiac patients who have undergone coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) procedures are vast. Many formulas and theories are used to predict clinical outcome and recovery time, and current prognostic predictions are based on medical and family history, lifestyle, co-morbidities, and performance status. The identification of biomarkers that provide concrete evidence supporting clinical outcome has greatly affected the field of medicine, helping clinicians in many medicine sub-specialties to forecast clinical course. Recent studies have discovered biomarkers that may be used as predictors of cardiac patients’ status post-cardiothoracic surgery, and the applications are numerous. In this review, we assess currently available cardiac biomarkers as predictors of clinical outcome for post-operative CABG patients. Data were collected from various studies in which cardiac biomarkers were measured in pre-operative and post-operative CABG patients. PMID:23866777

  6. Mapping Genes that Predict Treatment Outcome in Admixed Populations

    PubMed Central

    Baye, Tesfaye M.; Wilke, Russell A.

    2010-01-01

    There is great interest in characterizing the genetic architecture underlying drug response. For many drugs, gene-based dosing models explain a considerable amount of the overall variation in treatment outcome. As such, prescription drug labels are increasingly being modified to contain pharmacogenetic information. Genetic data must, however, be interpreted within the context of relevant clinical covariates. Even the most predictive models improve with the addition of data related to biogeographical ancestry. The current review explores analytical strategies that leverage population structure to more fully characterize genetic determinants of outcome in large clinical practice-based cohorts. The success of this approach will depend upon several key factors: (1) the availability of outcome data from groups of admixed individuals (i.e., populations recombined over multiple generations), (2) a measurable difference in treatment outcome (i.e., efficacy and toxicity endpoints), and (3) a measurable difference in allele frequency between the ancestral populations. PMID:20921971

  7. Prediction of Functional Outcome in Axonal Guillain-Barre Syndrome

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Objective To identify the factors that could predict the functional outcome in patients with the axonal type of Guillain-Barre syndrome (GBS). Methods Two hundred and two GBS patients admitted to our university hospital between 2003 and 2014 were reviewed retrospectively. We defined a good outcome as being "able to walk independently at 1 month after onset" and a poor outcome as being "unable to walk independently at 1 month after onset". We evaluated the factors that differed between the good and poor outcome groups. Results Twenty-four patients were classified into the acute motor axonal neuropathy type. There was a statistically significant difference between the good and poor outcome groups in terms of the GBS disability score at admission, and GBS disability score and Medical Research Council sum score at 1 month after admission. In an electrophysiologic analysis, the good outcome group showed greater amplitude of median, ulnar, deep peroneal, and posterior tibial nerve compound muscle action potentials (CMAP) and greater amplitude of median, ulnar, and superficial peroneal sensory nerve action potentials (SNAP) than the poor outcome group. Conclusion A lower GBS disability score at admission, high amplitude of median, ulnar, deep peroneal, and posterior tibial CMAPs, and high amplitude of median, ulnar, and superficial peroneal SNAPs were associated with being able to walk at 1 month in patients with axonal GBS. PMID:27446785

  8. Direct Pressure Monitoring Accurately Predicts Pulmonary Vein Occlusion During Cryoballoon Ablation

    PubMed Central

    Kosmidou, Ioanna; Wooden, Shannnon; Jones, Brian; Deering, Thomas; Wickliffe, Andrew; Dan, Dan

    2013-01-01

    Cryoballoon ablation (CBA) is an established therapy for atrial fibrillation (AF). Pulmonary vein (PV) occlusion is essential for achieving antral contact and PV isolation and is typically assessed by contrast injection. We present a novel method of direct pressure monitoring for assessment of PV occlusion. Transcatheter pressure is monitored during balloon advancement to the PV antrum. Pressure is recorded via a single pressure transducer connected to the inner lumen of the cryoballoon. Pressure curve characteristics are used to assess occlusion in conjunction with fluoroscopic or intracardiac echocardiography (ICE) guidance. PV occlusion is confirmed when loss of typical left atrial (LA) pressure waveform is observed with recordings of PA pressure characteristics (no A wave and rapid V wave upstroke). Complete pulmonary vein occlusion as assessed with this technique has been confirmed with concurrent contrast utilization during the initial testing of the technique and has been shown to be highly accurate and readily reproducible. We evaluated the efficacy of this novel technique in 35 patients. A total of 128 veins were assessed for occlusion with the cryoballoon utilizing the pressure monitoring technique; occlusive pressure was demonstrated in 113 veins with resultant successful pulmonary vein isolation in 111 veins (98.2%). Occlusion was confirmed with subsequent contrast injection during the initial ten procedures, after which contrast utilization was rapidly reduced or eliminated given the highly accurate identification of occlusive pressure waveform with limited initial training. Verification of PV occlusive pressure during CBA is a novel approach to assessing effective PV occlusion and it accurately predicts electrical isolation. Utilization of this method results in significant decrease in fluoroscopy time and volume of contrast. PMID:23485956

  9. Estimation of brain network ictogenicity predicts outcome from epilepsy surgery

    PubMed Central

    Goodfellow, M.; Rummel, C.; Abela, E.; Richardson, M. P.; Schindler, K.; Terry, J. R.

    2016-01-01

    Surgery is a valuable option for pharmacologically intractable epilepsy. However, significant post-operative improvements are not always attained. This is due in part to our incomplete understanding of the seizure generating (ictogenic) capabilities of brain networks. Here we introduce an in silico, model-based framework to study the effects of surgery within ictogenic brain networks. We find that factors conventionally determining the region of tissue to resect, such as the location of focal brain lesions or the presence of epileptiform rhythms, do not necessarily predict the best resection strategy. We validate our framework by analysing electrocorticogram (ECoG) recordings from patients who have undergone epilepsy surgery. We find that when post-operative outcome is good, model predictions for optimal strategies align better with the actual surgery undertaken than when post-operative outcome is poor. Crucially, this allows the prediction of optimal surgical strategies and the provision of quantitative prognoses for patients undergoing epilepsy surgery. PMID:27384316

  10. Predicting dire outcomes of patients with community acquired pneumonia.

    PubMed

    Cooper, Gregory F; Abraham, Vijoy; Aliferis, Constantin F; Aronis, John M; Buchanan, Bruce G; Caruana, Richard; Fine, Michael J; Janosky, Janine E; Livingston, Gary; Mitchell, Tom; Monti, Stefano; Spirtes, Peter

    2005-10-01

    Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is an important clinical condition with regard to patient mortality, patient morbidity, and healthcare resource utilization. The assessment of the likely clinical course of a CAP patient can significantly influence decision making about whether to treat the patient as an inpatient or as an outpatient. That decision can in turn influence resource utilization, as well as patient well being. Predicting dire outcomes, such as mortality or severe clinical complications, is a particularly important component in assessing the clinical course of patients. We used a training set of 1601 CAP patient cases to construct 11 statistical and machine-learning models that predict dire outcomes. We evaluated the resulting models on 686 additional CAP-patient cases. The primary goal was not to compare these learning algorithms as a study end point; rather, it was to develop the best model possible to predict dire outcomes. A special version of an artificial neural network (NN) model predicted dire outcomes the best. Using the 686 test cases, we estimated the expected healthcare quality and cost impact of applying the NN model in practice. The particular, quantitative results of this analysis are based on a number of assumptions that we make explicit; they will require further study and validation. Nonetheless, the general implication of the analysis seems robust, namely, that even small improvements in predictive performance for prevalent and costly diseases, such as CAP, are likely to result in significant improvements in the quality and efficiency of healthcare delivery. Therefore, seeking models with the highest possible level of predictive performance is important. Consequently, seeking ever better machine-learning and statistical modeling methods is of great practical significance. PMID:16198995

  11. Outcomes from a prospective trial of endoscopic radiofrequency ablation of early squamous cell neoplasia of the esophagus

    PubMed Central

    Bergman, Jacques JGHM; Zhang, Yueming; He, Shun; Weusten, Bas; Xue, Liyan; Fleischer, David E; Lu, Ning; Dawsey, Sanford M; Wang, Gui-Qi

    2012-01-01

    Background Radiofrequency ablation (RFA) is safe and effective for eradicating neoplasia in Barrett’s esophagus. Objective Evaluate RFA for eradicating early esophageal squamous cell neoplasia (ESCN) defined as moderate- and high-grade squamous intraepithelial neoplasia (MGIN, HGIN) and early flat-type esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). Design Prospective cohort study. Setting Tertiary referral center. Patients Esophageal unstained lesions (USLs) were identified using Lugol’s chromoendoscopy. Inclusion: at least 1 flat (type 0-IIb) USL ≥3cm, USL-bearing esophagus ≤12 cm, and a consensus diagnosis of MGIN, HGIN, or ESCC by two expert GI pathologists. Exclusion: prior endoscopic resection or ablation, stricture, or any non-flat mucosa. Interventions Circumferential RFA creating a continuous treatment area (TA) including all USLs. At 3-month intervals thereafter, chromoendoscopy with biopsies, followed by focal RFA of USLs, if present. Main outcome measures Complete response (CR) at 12 months, defined as absence of MGIN, HGIN or ESCC in TA; CR after one RFA session; neoplastic progression from baseline; and adverse events. Results 29 patients (14 male, mean age 60.3 years) with MGIN (18), HGIN (10), or ESCC (1) participated. Mean USL length was 6.2 cm (TA 8.2 cm). At 3-months, after one RFA session, 86% of patients (25/29) were CR. At 12-months, 97% (28/29) of patients were CR. There was no neoplastic progression. There were 4 strictures, all dilated to resolution. Limitations Single center study with limited number of patients. Conclusions In patients with early ESCN (MGIN, HGIN, flat-type ESCC), RFA was associated with a high rate of histological complete response (97% of patients), no neoplastic progression, and an acceptable adverse event profile. PMID:21839994

  12. Efficacy and predictability of soft tissue ablation using a prototype Raman-shifted alexandrite laser.

    PubMed

    Kozub, John A; Shen, Jin-H; Joos, Karen M; Prasad, Ratna; Hutson, M Shane

    2015-10-01

    Previous research showed that mid-infrared free-electron lasers could reproducibly ablate soft tissue with little collateral damage. The potential for surgical applications motivated searches for alternative tabletop lasers providing thermally confined pulses in the 6- to-7-µm wavelength range with sufficient pulse energy, stability, and reliability. Here, we evaluate a prototype Raman-shifted alexandrite laser. We measure ablation thresholds, etch rates, and collateral damage in gelatin and cornea as a function of laser wavelength (6.09, 6.27, or 6.43 µm), pulse energy (up to 3 mJ/pulse), and spot diameter (100 to 600 µm). We find modest wavelength dependence for ablation thresholds and collateral damage, with the lowest thresholds and least damage for 6.09 µm. We find a strong spot-size dependence for all metrics. When the beam is tightly focused (~100-µm diameter), ablation requires more energy, is highly variable and less efficient, and can yield large zones of mechanical damage (for pulse energies>1 mJ). When the beam is softly focused (~300-µm diameter), ablation proceeded at surgically relevant etch rates, with reasonable reproducibility (5% to 12% within a single sample), and little collateral damage. With improvements in pulse-energy stability, this prototype laser may have significant potential for soft-tissue surgical applications.

  13. Efficacy and predictability of soft tissue ablation using a prototype Raman-shifted alexandrite laser

    PubMed Central

    Kozub, John A.; Shen, Jin-H.; Joos, Karen M.; Prasad, Ratna; Shane Hutson, M.

    2015-01-01

    Abstract. Previous research showed that mid-infrared free-electron lasers could reproducibly ablate soft tissue with little collateral damage. The potential for surgical applications motivated searches for alternative tabletop lasers providing thermally confined pulses in the 6- to-7-μm wavelength range with sufficient pulse energy, stability, and reliability. Here, we evaluate a prototype Raman-shifted alexandrite laser. We measure ablation thresholds, etch rates, and collateral damage in gelatin and cornea as a function of laser wavelength (6.09, 6.27, or 6.43  μm), pulse energy (up to 3  mJ/pulse), and spot diameter (100 to 600  μm). We find modest wavelength dependence for ablation thresholds and collateral damage, with the lowest thresholds and least damage for 6.09  μm. We find a strong spot-size dependence for all metrics. When the beam is tightly focused (∼100-μm diameter), ablation requires more energy, is highly variable and less efficient, and can yield large zones of mechanical damage (for pulse energies >1  mJ). When the beam is softly focused (∼300-μm diameter), ablation proceeded at surgically relevant etch rates, with reasonable reproducibility (5% to 12% within a single sample), and little collateral damage. With improvements in pulse-energy stability, this prototype laser may have significant potential for soft-tissue surgical applications. PMID:26456553

  14. Efficacy and predictability of soft tissue ablation using a prototype Raman-shifted alexandrite laser

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kozub, John A.; Shen, Jin-H.; Joos, Karen M.; Prasad, Ratna; Shane Hutson, M.

    2015-10-01

    Previous research showed that mid-infrared free-electron lasers could reproducibly ablate soft tissue with little collateral damage. The potential for surgical applications motivated searches for alternative tabletop lasers providing thermally confined pulses in the 6- to-7-μm wavelength range with sufficient pulse energy, stability, and reliability. Here, we evaluate a prototype Raman-shifted alexandrite laser. We measure ablation thresholds, etch rates, and collateral damage in gelatin and cornea as a function of laser wavelength (6.09, 6.27, or 6.43 μm), pulse energy (up to 3 mJ/pulse), and spot diameter (100 to 600 μm). We find modest wavelength dependence for ablation thresholds and collateral damage, with the lowest thresholds and least damage for 6.09 μm. We find a strong spot-size dependence for all metrics. When the beam is tightly focused (˜100-μm diameter), ablation requires more energy, is highly variable and less efficient, and can yield large zones of mechanical damage (for pulse energies >1 mJ). When the beam is softly focused (˜300-μm diameter), ablation proceeded at surgically relevant etch rates, with reasonable reproducibility (5% to 12% within a single sample), and little collateral damage. With improvements in pulse-energy stability, this prototype laser may have significant potential for soft-tissue surgical applications.

  15. Efficacy and predictability of soft tissue ablation using a prototype Raman-shifted alexandrite laser.

    PubMed

    Kozub, John A; Shen, Jin-H; Joos, Karen M; Prasad, Ratna; Hutson, M Shane

    2015-10-01

    Previous research showed that mid-infrared free-electron lasers could reproducibly ablate soft tissue with little collateral damage. The potential for surgical applications motivated searches for alternative tabletop lasers providing thermally confined pulses in the 6- to-7-µm wavelength range with sufficient pulse energy, stability, and reliability. Here, we evaluate a prototype Raman-shifted alexandrite laser. We measure ablation thresholds, etch rates, and collateral damage in gelatin and cornea as a function of laser wavelength (6.09, 6.27, or 6.43 µm), pulse energy (up to 3 mJ/pulse), and spot diameter (100 to 600 µm). We find modest wavelength dependence for ablation thresholds and collateral damage, with the lowest thresholds and least damage for 6.09 µm. We find a strong spot-size dependence for all metrics. When the beam is tightly focused (~100-µm diameter), ablation requires more energy, is highly variable and less efficient, and can yield large zones of mechanical damage (for pulse energies>1 mJ). When the beam is softly focused (~300-µm diameter), ablation proceeded at surgically relevant etch rates, with reasonable reproducibility (5% to 12% within a single sample), and little collateral damage. With improvements in pulse-energy stability, this prototype laser may have significant potential for soft-tissue surgical applications. PMID:26456553

  16. Unexpected but Incidental Positive Outcomes Predict Real-World Gambling.

    PubMed

    Otto, A Ross; Fleming, Stephen M; Glimcher, Paul W

    2016-03-01

    Positive mood can affect a person's tendency to gamble, possibly because positive mood fosters unrealistic optimism. At the same time, unexpected positive outcomes, often called prediction errors, influence mood. However, a linkage between positive prediction errors-the difference between expected and obtained outcomes-and consequent risk taking has yet to be demonstrated. Using a large data set of New York City lottery gambling and a model inspired by computational accounts of reward learning, we found that people gamble more when incidental outcomes in the environment (e.g., local sporting events and sunshine) are better than expected. When local sports teams performed better than expected, or a sunny day followed a streak of cloudy days, residents gambled more. The observed relationship between prediction errors and gambling was ubiquitous across the city's socioeconomically diverse neighborhoods and was specific to sports and weather events occurring locally in New York City. Our results suggest that unexpected but incidental positive outcomes influence risk taking. PMID:26796614

  17. Lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio predicts survival after radiofrequency ablation for colorectal liver metastases

    PubMed Central

    Facciorusso, Antonio; Del Prete, Valentina; Crucinio, Nicola; Serviddio, Gaetano; Vendemiale, Gianluigi; Muscatiello, Nicola

    2016-01-01

    AIM: To test the correlation between lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR) and survival after radiofrequency ablation (RFA) for colorectal liver metastasis (CLMs). METHODS: From July 2003 to Feb 2012, 127 consecutive patients with 193 histologically-proven unresectable CLMs were treated with percutaneous RFA at the University of Foggia. All patients had undergone primary colorectal tumor resection before RFA and received systemic chemotherapy. LMR was calculated by dividing lymphocyte count by monocyte count assessed at baseline. Treatment-related toxicity was defined as any adverse events occurred within 4 wk after the procedure. Overall survival (OS) and time to recurrence (TTR) were estimated from the date of RFA by Kaplan-Meier with plots and median (95%CI). The inferential analysis for time to event data was conducted using the Cox univariate and multivariate regression model to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95%CI. Statistically significant variables from the univariate Cox analysis were considered for the multivariate models. RESULTS: Median age was 66 years (range 38-88) and patients were prevalently male (69.2%). Median LMR was 4.38% (0.79-88) whereas median number of nodules was 2 (1-3) with a median maximum diameter of 27 mm (10-45). Median OS was 38 mo (34-53) and survival rate (SR) was 89.4%, 40.4% and 33.3% at 1, 4 and 5 years respectively in the whole cohort. Running log-rank test analysis found 3.96% as the most significant prognostic cut-off point for LMR and stratifying the study population by this LMR value median OS resulted 55 mo (37-69) in patients with LMR > 3.96% and 34 (26-39) mo in patients with LMR ≤ 3.96% (HR = 0.53, 0.34-0.85, P = 0.007). Nodule size and LMR were the only significant predictors for OS in multivariate analysis. Median TTR was 29 mo (22-35) with a recurrence-free survival (RFS) rate of 72.6%, 32.1% and 21.8% at 1, 4 and 5 years, respectively in the whole study group. Nodule size and LMR were confirmed as significant

  18. Borderline personality disorder features predict negative outcomes 2 years later.

    PubMed

    Bagge, Courtney; Nickell, Angela; Stepp, Stephanie; Durrett, Christine; Jackson, Kristina; Trull, Timothy J

    2004-05-01

    In a sample of 351 young adults, the authors assessed whether borderline personality disorder (BPD) features prospectively predicted negative outcomes (poorer academic achievement and social maladjustment) over the subsequent 2 years, over and above gender and both Axis I and Axis II psychopathology. Borderline traits were significantly related to these outcomes, with impulsivity and affective instability the most highly associated. The present findings suggest that the impulsivity and affective instability associated with BPD leads to impairment in relating well with others, in meeting social role obligations, and in academic or occupational achievement. Therefore, these may be especially important features to target in interventions for BPD.

  19. Predictable Outcomes with Porcelain Laminate Veneers: A Clinical Report.

    PubMed

    Pimentel, Welson; Teixeira, Marcelo Lucchesi; Costa, Priscila Paganini; Jorge, Mônica Zacharias; Tiossi, Rodrigo

    2016-06-01

    This clinical report describes how to achieve predictable outcomes for anterior teeth esthetic restorations with porcelain laminate veneers by associating the digital planning and design of the restoration with interim restorations. The previous digital smile design of the restoration eliminates the communication barrier with the patient and assists the clinician throughout patient treatment. Interim restorations (diagnostic mock-ups) further enhance communication with the patient and prevent unnecessary tooth reduction for conservative tooth preparation. Adequate communication between patient and clinician contributes to successful definitive restorations and patient satisfaction with the final esthetic outcome. PMID:26633080

  20. Predictable Outcomes with Porcelain Laminate Veneers: A Clinical Report.

    PubMed

    Pimentel, Welson; Teixeira, Marcelo Lucchesi; Costa, Priscila Paganini; Jorge, Mônica Zacharias; Tiossi, Rodrigo

    2016-06-01

    This clinical report describes how to achieve predictable outcomes for anterior teeth esthetic restorations with porcelain laminate veneers by associating the digital planning and design of the restoration with interim restorations. The previous digital smile design of the restoration eliminates the communication barrier with the patient and assists the clinician throughout patient treatment. Interim restorations (diagnostic mock-ups) further enhance communication with the patient and prevent unnecessary tooth reduction for conservative tooth preparation. Adequate communication between patient and clinician contributes to successful definitive restorations and patient satisfaction with the final esthetic outcome.

  1. How the behavioral approach system predicts everyday life outcomes.

    PubMed

    Izadikhah, Zahra; Jackson, Chris J

    2010-01-01

    This study tested crucial components of Gray's reinforcement sensitivity theory that have generally been overlooked in the literature. We tested whether the perceived amount of reward moderates the behavioral approach system (BAS) and the importance of reward mediates BAS in the prediction of job satisfaction and organizational commitment. Results from 514 participants employed in part-time and full-time jobs provided support for our model, such that the indirect effect of BAS through the importance of reward was strongest when reward was provided. This model advances our understanding of reinforcement sensitivity theory and offers a solid foundation for predicting outcomes in everyday life.

  2. Perceived Masculinity Predicts U.S. Supreme Court Outcomes

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Previous studies suggest a significant role of language in the court room, yet none has identified a definitive correlation between vocal characteristics and court outcomes. This paper demonstrates that voice-based snap judgments based solely on the introductory sentence of lawyers arguing in front of the Supreme Court of the United States predict outcomes in the Court. In this study, participants rated the opening statement of male advocates arguing before the Supreme Court between 1998 and 2012 in terms of masculinity, attractiveness, confidence, intelligence, trustworthiness, and aggressiveness. We found significant correlation between vocal characteristics and court outcomes and the correlation is specific to perceived masculinity even when judgment of masculinity is based only on less than three seconds of exposure to a lawyer’s speech sample. Specifically, male advocates are more likely to win when they are perceived as less masculine. No other personality dimension predicts court outcomes. While this study does not aim to establish any causal connections, our findings suggest that vocal characteristics may be relevant in even as solemn a setting as the Supreme Court of the United States. PMID:27737008

  3. Distal end of the atrioventricular nodal artery predicts the risk of atrioventricular block during slow pathway catheter ablation of atrioventricular nodal re-entrant tachycardia

    PubMed Central

    Lin, J; Huang, S; Lai, L; Lin, L; Chen, J; Tseng, Y; Lien, W

    2000-01-01

    OBJECTIVE—To search for a reliable anatomical landmark within Koch's triangle to predict the risk of atrioventricular (AV) block during radiofrequency slow pathway catheter ablation of AV nodal re-entrant tachycardia (AVNRT).
PATIENTS AND METHODS—To test the hypothesis that the distal end of the AV nodal artery represents the anatomical location of the AV node, and thus could be a useful landmark for predicting the risk of AV block, 128 consecutive patients with AVNRT receiving slow pathway catheter ablation were prospectively studied in two phases. In phase I (77 patients), angiographic demonstration of the AV nodal artery and its ending was performed at the end of the ablation procedure, whereas in the subsequent phase II study (51 patients), the angiography was performed immediately before catheter ablation to assess the value of identifying this new landmark in reducing the risk of AV block. Multiple electrophysiologic and anatomical parameters were analysed. The former included the atrial activation sequence between the His bundle recording site (HBE) and the coronary sinus orifice or the catheter ablation site, either during AVNRT or during sinus rhythm. The latter included the spatial distances between the distal end of the AV nodal artery and the HBE and the final catheter ablation site, and the distance between the HBE and the tricuspid border at the coronary sinus orifice floor.
RESULTS—In phase I, nine of the 77 patients had complications of transient (seven patients) or permanent (two patients) complete AV block during stepwise, anatomy guided slow pathway catheter ablation. These nine patients had a wider distance between the HBE and the distal end of the AV nodal artery, and a closer approximation of the catheter ablation site to the distal end of the AV nodal artery, which independently predicted the risk of AV block. In contrast, none of the available electrophysiologic parameters were shown to be reliable. When the distance between

  4. Predicting outcome in a postacute stroke rehabilitation programme.

    PubMed

    van Bragt, Peter J; van Ginneken, Berbke T; Westendorp, Tessa; Heijenbrok-Kal, Majanka H; Wijffels, Markus P; Ribbers, Gerard M

    2014-06-01

    This study aims to evaluate and predict outcome as part of routine quality assessment of an inpatient stroke rehabilitation programme. By relating functional outcome to patient characteristics, including variables from the quality of life domain, we aim to find a set of variables that can be useful for prognosis, stratification and programme improvement. Data were collected, before and after rehabilitation, from a prospective quality registration database. Included were 250 patients in inpatient stroke rehabilitation after sustaining a first or recurrent ischemic or haemorrhagic stroke. Functional status was measured with the Barthel Index and the Academic Medical Centre Linear Disability Score. Health-related quality of life (HrQoL) was measured with the COOP/WONCA and the Nottingham Health Profile. Significant improvements were found on all outcome measures. A lower functional admission score, older age, more severe stroke, more pain and more negative emotional reactions on admission were found to be independent predictors of a lower outcome score, explaining 39.5% of its variance. Subjective (HrQoL) factors such as negative emotion and pain have an adverse effect on outcome of stroke rehabilitation, in addition to stroke severity, age and functional status at admission. These factors need to be taken into account in screening, clinical decision making and treatment design. PMID:24300659

  5. Predicting outcome in a postacute stroke rehabilitation programme.

    PubMed

    van Bragt, Peter J; van Ginneken, Berbke T; Westendorp, Tessa; Heijenbrok-Kal, Majanka H; Wijffels, Markus P; Ribbers, Gerard M

    2014-06-01

    This study aims to evaluate and predict outcome as part of routine quality assessment of an inpatient stroke rehabilitation programme. By relating functional outcome to patient characteristics, including variables from the quality of life domain, we aim to find a set of variables that can be useful for prognosis, stratification and programme improvement. Data were collected, before and after rehabilitation, from a prospective quality registration database. Included were 250 patients in inpatient stroke rehabilitation after sustaining a first or recurrent ischemic or haemorrhagic stroke. Functional status was measured with the Barthel Index and the Academic Medical Centre Linear Disability Score. Health-related quality of life (HrQoL) was measured with the COOP/WONCA and the Nottingham Health Profile. Significant improvements were found on all outcome measures. A lower functional admission score, older age, more severe stroke, more pain and more negative emotional reactions on admission were found to be independent predictors of a lower outcome score, explaining 39.5% of its variance. Subjective (HrQoL) factors such as negative emotion and pain have an adverse effect on outcome of stroke rehabilitation, in addition to stroke severity, age and functional status at admission. These factors need to be taken into account in screening, clinical decision making and treatment design.

  6. Does obesity predict functional outcome in the dysvascular amputee?

    PubMed

    Kalbaugh, Corey A; Taylor, Spence M; Kalbaugh, Brooke A; Halliday, Matthew; Daniel, Grace; Cass, Anna L; Blackhurst, Dawn W; Cull, David L; Langan, Eugene M; Carsten, Christopher G; York, John W; Snyder, Bruce A; Youkey, Jerry R

    2006-08-01

    Limited information is available concerning the effects of obesity on the functional outcomes of patients requiring major lower limb amputation because of peripheral arterial disease (PAD). The purpose of this study was to examine the predictive ability of body mass index (BMI) to determine functional outcome in the dysvascular amputee. To do this, 434 consecutive patients (mean age, 65.8 +/- 13.3, 59% male, 71.4% diabetic) undergoing major limb amputation (225 below-knee amputation, 27 through-knee amputation, 132 above-knee amputation, and 50 bilateral) as a complication of PAD from January 1998 through May 2004 were analyzed according to preoperative BMI. BMI was classified according to the four-group Center for Disease Control system: underweight, 0 to 18.4 kg/m2; normal, 18.5 to 24.9 kg/m2; overweight, 25 to 29.9 kg/m2; and obese, > or = 30 kg/m2. Outcome parameters measured included prosthetic usage, maintenance of ambulation, survival, and maintenance of independent living status. The chi2 test for association was used to examine prosthesis wear. Kaplan-Meier curves were constructed to assess maintenance of ambulation, survival, and maintenance of independent living status. Multivariate analysis using the multiple logistic regression model and a Cox proportional hazards model were used to predict variables independently associated with prosthetic use and ambulation, survival, and independence, respectively. Overall prosthetic usage and 36-month ambulation, survival, and independent living status for the entire cohort was 48.6 per cent, 42.8 per cent, 48.1 per cent, 72.3 per cent, and for patients with normal BMI was 41.5 per cent, 37.4 per cent, 45.6 per cent, and 69.5 per cent, respectively. There was no statistically significant difference in outcomes for overweight patients (59.2%, 50.7%, 52.5%, and 75%) or obese patients (51.8%, 46.2%, 49.7%, and 75%) when compared with normal patients. Although there were significantly poorer outcomes for underweight

  7. Developing an open platform for evidence-based microwave ablation treatment planning and validation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deshazer, Garron; Dupuy, Damian E.; Walsh, Edward; Prakash, Punit; Fairchild, Dillon; Glidden, David; Collins, Scott A.; Cook, Madeleine L.; Ryan, Thomas P.; Merck, Derek

    2015-03-01

    The clinical utility of current thermal ablation planning tools is severely limited by treatment variability. We discuss the development of an open platform for evidence-based thermal ablation treatment planning and validation. Improved predictive treatment modeling and consistent outcome analysis are crucial components for useful planning and guidance tools.

  8. Predicting the outcome of competition when fitness inequality is variable.

    PubMed

    Pedruski, Michael T; Fussmann, Gregor F; Gonzalez, Andrew

    2015-08-01

    Traditional niche theory predicts that when species compete for one limiting resource in simple ecological settings the more fit competitor should exclude the less fit competitor. Since the advent of neutral theory ecologists have increasingly become interested both in how the magnitude of fitness inequality between competitors and stochasticity may affect this prediction. We used numerical simulations to investigate the outcome of two-species resource competition along gradients of fitness inequality (inequality in R*) and initial population size in the presence of demographic stochasticity. We found that the deterministic prediction of more fit competitors excluding less fit competitors was often unobserved when fitness inequalities were low or stochasticity was strong, and unexpected outcomes such as dominance by the less fit competitor, long-term co-persistence of both competitors or the extinction of both competitors could be common. By examining the interaction between fitness inequality and stochasticity our results mark the range of parameter space in which the predictions of niche theory break down most severely, and suggest that questions about whether competitive dynamics are driven by neutral or niche processes may be locally contingent.

  9. Predicting the outcome of competition when fitness inequality is variable

    PubMed Central

    Pedruski, Michael T.; Fussmann, Gregor F.; Gonzalez, Andrew

    2015-01-01

    Traditional niche theory predicts that when species compete for one limiting resource in simple ecological settings the more fit competitor should exclude the less fit competitor. Since the advent of neutral theory ecologists have increasingly become interested both in how the magnitude of fitness inequality between competitors and stochasticity may affect this prediction. We used numerical simulations to investigate the outcome of two-species resource competition along gradients of fitness inequality (inequality in R*) and initial population size in the presence of demographic stochasticity. We found that the deterministic prediction of more fit competitors excluding less fit competitors was often unobserved when fitness inequalities were low or stochasticity was strong, and unexpected outcomes such as dominance by the less fit competitor, long-term co-persistence of both competitors or the extinction of both competitors could be common. By examining the interaction between fitness inequality and stochasticity our results mark the range of parameter space in which the predictions of niche theory break down most severely, and suggest that questions about whether competitive dynamics are driven by neutral or niche processes may be locally contingent. PMID:26361557

  10. Spinal meningiomas: clinicoradiological factors predicting recurrence and functional outcome.

    PubMed

    Maiti, Tanmoy K; Bir, Shyamal C; Patra, Devi Prasad; Kalakoti, Piyush; Guthikonda, Bharat; Nanda, Anil

    2016-08-01

    OBJECTIVE Spinal meningiomas are benign tumors with a wide spectrum of clinical and radiological features at presentation. The authors analyzed multiple clinicoradiological factors to predict recurrence and functional outcome in a cohort with a mean follow-up of more than 4 years. The authors also discuss the results of clinical studies regarding spinal meningiomas in the last 15 years. METHODS The authors retrospectively reviewed the clinical and radiological details of patients who underwent surgery for spinal tumors between 2001 and 2015 that were histopathologically confirmed as meningiomas. Demographic parameters, such as age, sex, race, and association with neurofibromatosis Type 2, were considered. Radiological parameters, such as tumor size, signal changes of spinal cord, spinal level, number of levels, location of tumor attachment, shape of tumor, and presence of dural tail/calcification, were noted. These factors were analyzed to predict recurrence and functional outcome. Furthermore, a pooled analysis was performed from 13 reports of spinal meningiomas in the last 15 years. RESULTS A total of 38 patients were included in this study. Male sex and tumors with radiological evidence of a dural tail were associated with an increased risk of recurrence at a mean follow-up of 51.2 months. Ventral or ventrolateral location, large tumors, T2 cord signal changes, and poor preoperative functional status were associated with poor functional outcome at 1-year follow-up. CONCLUSIONS Spine surgeons must be aware of the natural history and risk factors of spinal meningiomas to establish a prognosis for their patients.

  11. Writing abilities longitudinally predict academic outcomes of adolescents with ADHD.

    PubMed

    Molitor, Stephen J; Langberg, Joshua M; Bourchtein, Elizaveta; Eddy, Laura D; Dvorsky, Melissa R; Evans, Steven W

    2016-09-01

    Students with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) often experience a host of negative academic outcomes, and deficits in reading and mathematics abilities contribute to these academic impairments. Students with ADHD may also have difficulties with written expression, but there has been minimal research in this area and it is not clear whether written expression abilities uniquely contribute to the academic functioning of students with ADHD. The current study included a sample of 104 middle school students diagnosed with ADHD (Grades 6-8). Participants were followed longitudinally to evaluate whether written expression abilities at baseline predicted student grade point average (GPA) and parent ratings of academic impairment 18 months later, after controlling for reading ability and additional relevant covariates. Written expression abilities longitudinally predicted both academic outcomes above and beyond ADHD and oppositional defiant disorder symptoms, medication use, reading ability, and baseline values of GPA and parent-rated academic impairment. Follow-up analyses revealed that no single aspect of written expression was demonstrably more impactful on academic outcomes than the others, suggesting that writing as an entire process should be the focus of intervention. (PsycINFO Database Record

  12. Assessing and predicting successful tube placement outcomes in ALS patients.

    PubMed

    Beggs, Kathleen; Choi, Marcia; Travlos, Andrew

    2010-01-01

    This study reviews feeding tube placement outcomes in 69 ALS outpatients seen at an outpatient interdisciplinary ALS clinic in British Columbia, Canada. The objective was to determine at which point the risks outweigh the benefits of tube placement by reviewing outcomes against parameters of respiratory function, nutritional status and speech and swallowing deterioration. The study was a retrospective review of tube placements between January 2000 and 2005, analysing data on respiratory function (forced vital capacity and respiratory status), weight change from usual body weight (UBW) and speech/swallowing deterioration using ALS Severity Score ratings (Hillel et al., 1989) at time of tube placement. Results show a statistically significant association between nutritional status and successful tube placement outcomes (p=0.003), and none between respiratory status, speech/swallowing variables, or number of deteriorated variables in each patient. Study findings were impacted by lack of available respiratory data. The only study variable that predicted successful tube placement outcome was a body weight greater than or equal to 74% UBW at time of tube placement. In the absence of access to respiratory testing, the relatively simple assessment of weight may assist patients and caregivers in appropriate decisions around tube placement.

  13. Immunophenotype predicts outcome in pediatric acute liver failure

    PubMed Central

    Bucuvalas, John; Filipovich, Lisa; Yazigi, Nada; Narkewicz, Michael R.; Ng, Vicky; Belle, Steven H.; Zhang, Song; Squires, Robert H.

    2012-01-01

    Objectives We sought to determine if markers of T cell immune activation, including soluble interleukin 2 receptor alpha (sIL2Rα) levels predict outcome in pediatric acute liver failure (PALF) and might target potential candidates for immunomodulatory therapy. Methods We analyzed markers of immune activation in 77 patients with PALF enrolled in a multi-national, multi-center study. The outcomes were survival with native liver, liver transplantation, and death without transplantation within 21 days after enrollment. Results Adjusting for multiple comparisons, only normalized serum sIL2Rα level differed significantly among the 3 outcomes, and was significantly higher in patients who died (p=0.02) or underwent liver transplantation (p=0.01) compared to those who survived with their native liver. The 37 patients with normal sIL2Rα levels all lived, 30 with their native liver. Of the 15 subjects with markedly high sIL2Rα (≥5000 IU/mL), 5 survived with their native liver, 2 died, and 8 underwent liver transplantation. Conclusions Evidence of immune activation is present in some patients who die or undergo liver transplantation. Patients with higher sIL2Rα levels were more likely to die or undergo liver transplantation within 21 days than those with lower levels. Identifying a subset of patients at risk for poor outcome may form the foundation for targeted clinical trials with immunomodulatory drugs. PMID:23111765

  14. Predicting outcomes after liver transplantation. A connectionist approach.

    PubMed Central

    Doyle, H R; Dvorchik, I; Mitchell, S; Marino, I R; Ebert, F H; McMichael, J; Fung, J J

    1994-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The authors sought to train an artificial neural network to predict early outcomes after orthotopic liver transplantation. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: Reliable prediction of outcomes early after liver transplantation would help improve organ use and could have an impact on patient survival, but remains an elusive goal. Traditional multivariate models have failed to attain the sensitivity and specificity required for practical clinical use. Alternate approaches that can help us model clinical phenomena must be explored. One such approach is the use of artificial neural networks, or connectionist models. These are computation systems that process information in parallel, using large numbers of simple units, and excel in tasks involving pattern recognition. They are capable of adaptive learning and self-organization, and exhibit a high degree of fault tolerance. METHODS: Ten feed-forward, back-propagation neural networks were trained to predict graft outcomes, using data from 155 adult liver transplants. The data included information that was available by the second postoperative day. Ten separate training and testing data subsets were prepared, using random sampling, and the ability of the different networks to predict outcomes successfully was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. RESULTS: Four of the networks showed perfect discrimination, with an area under the ROC curve (Az) of 1.0. Two other networks also had excellent performance, with an Az of 0.95. The sensitivity and specificity of the combined networks was 60% and 100%, respectively, when using an output neuron activation of 0.6 as the cutoff point to decide class membership. Lowering the cutoff point to 0.14 increased the sensitivity to 77%, and lowered the specificity to 96%. CONCLUSIONS: These results are encouraging, especially when compared to the performance of more traditional multivariate models on the same data set. The robustness of neural networks, when

  15. How electrodiagnosis predicts clinical outcome of focal peripheral nerve lesions.

    PubMed

    Robinson, Lawrence R

    2015-09-01

    This article reviews the electrodiagnostic (EDX) prognostic factors for focal traumatic and nontraumatic peripheral nerve injuries. Referring physicians and patients often benefit from general and nerve-specific prognostic information from the EDX consultant. Knowing the probable outcome from a nerve injury allows the referring physician to choose the best treatment options for his/her patients. Nerve injuries are variable in their mechanism, location, and pathophysiology. The general effects of the injuries on nerve and muscle are well known, but more research is needed for nerve-specific information. Several factors currently known to influence prognosis include: nature of the nerve trauma, amount of axon loss, recruitment in muscles supplied by the nerve, the extent of demyelination, and the distance to reinnervate functional muscles. This article reviews these general concepts and also nerve-specific EDX measures that predict outcome after focal neuropathies.

  16. Computed tomography in the prediction of outcome in head injury

    SciTech Connect

    Lipper, M.H.; Kishore, P.R.S.; Enas, G.G.; Domingues da Silva, A.A.; Choi, S.C.; Becker, D.P.

    1985-03-01

    To determine the prognostic significance of computed tomographic (CT) findings in head injury, retrospective analysis was performed in 128 randomly selected severe head-injury patients managed with a standardized protocol. The minimal criterion for entry into this study was that the patients were unable to obey simple commands or utter formed words. Serial CT was performed on admission and 3-5 days, 2 weeks, 3 months, and 1 year after injury. A scale of severity of abnormalities was devised taking into account the size of the traumatic lesions on CT. The CT findings using the proposed scale were correlated with the clincial outcome and analyzed using linear logistic regression. The correct prediction rate of outcome using the proposed scale for CT findings alone was found to be 69.7%. When CT findings were combined with the Glasgow Coma Scale score this rate was increased to 75.8%.

  17. Ultrasound cervical length measurement in prediction of labor induction outcome.

    PubMed

    Kehila, M; Abouda, H S; Sahbi, K; Cheour, H; Chanoufi, M Badis

    2016-05-17

    Induction of labor is one of the most common procedures in modern obstetrics, with an incidence of approximately 20% of all deliveries. Not all of these inductions result in vaginal delivery; some lead to cesarean sections, either for emergency reasons or for failed induction. That's why, It seems necessary to outline strategies for the improvement of the success rate of induced deliveries. Traditionally, the identification of women in whom labor induction is more likely to be successful is based on the Bishop score. However, several studies have shown it to be subjective, with high variation and a poor predictor of the outcome of labor induction. Transvaginal sonography for cervical measurement can be a more objective criterion in assessing the success of labor induction. Many studies have been done recently to compare cervical measurement and Bishop Score in labor induction.This paper reviewed the literature that evaluated sonographic cervical length measurement to predict induction of labor outcome.

  18. Predicting stroke outcome using DCE-CT measured blood velocity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oosterbroek, Jaap; Bennink, Edwin; Dankbaar, Jan Willem; Horsch, Alexander D.; Viergever, Max A.; Velthuis, Birgitta K.; de Jong, Hugo W. A. M.

    2015-03-01

    CT plays an important role in the diagnosis of acute stroke patients. Dynamic contrast enhanced CT (DCE-CT) can estimate local tissue perfusion and extent of ischemia. However, hemodynamic information of the large intracranial vessels may also be obtained from DCE-CT data and may contain valuable diagnostic information. We describe a novel method to estimate intravascular blood velocity (IBV) in large cerebral vessels using DCE-CT data, which may be useful to help predict stroke outcome. DCE-CT scans from 34 patients with isolated M1 occlusions were included from a large prospective multi-center cohort study of patients with acute ischemic stroke. Gaussians fitted to the intravascular data yielded the time-to-peak (TTP) and cerebral-blood-volume (CBV). IBV was computed by taking the inverse of the TTP gradient magnitude. Voxels with a CBV of at least 10% of the CBV found in the arterial input function were considered part of a vessel. Mid-sagittal planes were drawn manually and averages of the IBV over all vessel-voxels (arterial and venous) were computed for each hemisphere. Mean-hemisphere IBV differences, mean-hemisphere TTP differences, and hemisphere vessel volume differences were used to differentiate between patients with good and bad outcome (modified Rankin Scale score <3 versus ≥3 at 90 days) using ROC analysis. AUCs from the ROC for IBV, TTP, and vessel volume were 0.80, 0.67 and 0.62 respectively. In conclusion, IBV was found to be a better predictor of patient outcome than the parameters used to compute it and may be a promising new parameter for stroke outcome prediction.

  19. [Identification of predictive biomarkers to radiotherapy outcome through proteomics approaches].

    PubMed

    Lacombe, J; Mange, A; Azria, D; Solassol, J

    2013-02-01

    The success of radiotherapy mainly depends on the total administered dose. This dose must be homogenously delivered onto the tumor and must preserve the surrounding healthy tissue. However, several patients are hypersensitive to ionizing radiations and may develop important radiation-induced early and late side effects. The prediction of these side effects remains currently impossible, involving to limit the given dose with the risk to decrease the therapeutic benefit for patients. Therefore, one of the major challenges in radiobiology is to accurately predict tumour radioresistance and to determine normal tissue radiosensitivity to tailor treatment. Several studies have been carried out and different predictive assays have been described in this field. However, none of them showed significant results for clinical use. For several years, many technological advances in proteomic fields have been performed in order to identify new biomarkers. After a brief description of the main characteristics of tumor radioresistance and normal tissue radiosensitivity, we will develop in this review the different approaches proposed so far to identify predictive tools of radiotherapy outcome. We will then analyze in detail how proteomic studies can improve the understanding of mechanisms associated with radiosensitivity of healthy tissue and radioresistance of tumor cells and how they could highlight new predictive biomarkers in radiobiology.

  20. Inferences of competence from faces predict election outcomes.

    PubMed

    Todorov, Alexander; Mandisodza, Anesu N; Goren, Amir; Hall, Crystal C

    2005-06-10

    We show that inferences of competence based solely on facial appearance predicted the outcomes of U.S. congressional elections better than chance (e.g., 68.8% of the Senate races in 2004) and also were linearly related to the margin of victory. These inferences were specific to competence and occurred within a 1-second exposure to the faces of the candidates. The findings suggest that rapid, unreflective trait inferences can contribute to voting choices, which are widely assumed to be based primarily on rational and deliberative considerations.

  1. Model to predict the melting and ablation of reactive metal shrapnel in a high Weber number environment

    SciTech Connect

    Connell, L.W.

    1984-05-01

    Aerothermoballistic behavior of pyrophoric metal shrapnel ejected at supersonic speeds has been numerically simulated. The theoretical model predicts aerodynamic and chemical heat-transfer rates and particle thermal response, including time and position of melt initiation. Because of the high Weber number environment, the melting particle undergoes liquid layer stripping. The model, incorporated in the PLUTO computer code, predicts the liquid mass loss rate, characteristic liquid droplet diameter, temperature rise across the liquid film, and the coupled particle trajectory. The aeroheating, thermal, and ballistic sections of the PLUTO code have been validated by comparison with independent calculations and qualitative experimental data concerning the melting and ablation of gold microspheres. The model still needs to be field tested against reactive metal particles in high Weber number flows.

  2. The procedure outcome of laparoscopic resection for ‘small’ hepatocellular carcinoma is comparable to vlaparoscopic radiofrequency ablation

    PubMed Central

    Casaccia, Marco; Santori, Gregorio; Bottino, Giuliano; Diviacco, Pietro; Negri, Antonella De; Moraglia, Eva; Adorno, Enzo

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to compare the effectiveness of laparoscopic liver resection (LLR) and laparoscopic radiofrequency ablation (LRFA) in the treatment of small nodular hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). PATIENTS AND METHODS: We enrolled 50 cirrhotic patients with similar baseline characteristics that underwent LLR (n = 26) or LRFA (n = 24), in both cases with intraoperative ultrasonography. Operative and peri-operative data were retrospectively evaluated. RESULTS: LLR included anatomic resection in eight cases and non-anatomic resection in 18. In LRFA patients, a thermoablation of 62 nodules was achieved. Between LLR and LRFA groups, a significant difference was found both for median diameters of treated HCC nodules (30 vs. 17.1 mm; P < 0.001) and the number of treated nodules/patient (1.29 ± 0.62 vs. 2.65 ± 1.55; P < 0.001). A conversion to laparotomy occurred in two LLR patient (7.7%) for bleeding. No deaths occurred in both groups. Morbidity rates were 26.9% in the LLR group versus 16.6% in the LRFA group (P = 0.501). Hospital stay in the LLR and LRFA group was 8.30 ± 6.52 and 6.52 ± 2.69 days, respectively (P = 0.022). The surgical margin was free of tumour cells in all LLR patients, with a margin <5 mm in only one case. In the LRFA group, a complete response was achieved in 90.3% of thermoablated HCC nodules at the 1-month post-treatment computed tomography evaluation. CONCLUSIONS: LLR for small peripheral HCC in patients with chronic liver disease represents a valid alternative to LRFA in terms of patient toleration, surgical outcome of the procedure, and short-term morbidity. PMID:26622111

  3. Pediatric extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy: Predicting successful outcomes.

    PubMed

    McAdams, Sean; Shukla, Aseem R

    2010-10-01

    Extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy (ESWL) is currently a first-line procedure of most upper urinary tract stones <2 cm of size because of established success rates, its minimal invasiveness and long-term safety with minimal complications. Given that alternative surgical and endourological options exist for the management of stone disease and that ESWL failure often results in the need for repeat ESWL or secondary procedures, it is highly desirable to identify variables predicting successful outcomes of ESWL in the pediatric population. Despite numerous reports and growing experience, few prospective studies and guidelines for pediatric ESWL have been completed. Variation in the methods by which study parameters are measured and reported can make it difficult to compare individual studies or make definitive recommendations. There is ongoing work and a need for continuing improvement of imaging protocols in children with renal colic, with a current focus on minimizing exposure to ionizing radiation, perhaps utilizing advancements in ultrasound and magnetic resonance imaging. This report provides a review of the current literature evaluating the patient attributes and stone factors that may be predictive of successful ESWL outcomes along with reviewing the role of pre-operative imaging and considerations for patient safety.

  4. Relatively random: context effects on perceived randomness and predicted outcomes.

    PubMed

    Matthews, William J

    2013-09-01

    This article concerns the effect of context on people's judgments about sequences of chance outcomes. In Experiment 1, participants judged whether sequences were produced by random, mechanical processes (such as a roulette wheel) or skilled human action (such as basketball shots). Sequences with lower alternation rates were judged more likely to result from human action. However, this effect was highly context-dependent: A moderate alternation rate was judged more likely to indicate a random physical process when encountered among sequences with lower alternation rates than when embedded among sequences with higher alternation rates. Experiment 2 found the same effect for predictions of the next outcome following a streak: A streak of 3 at the end of the sequence was judged less likely to continue by participants who had encountered shorter terminal streaks in previous trials than by those who had encountered longer ones. These contrast effects (a) help to explain variability in the types of sequences that are judged to be random and that elicit the gambler's fallacy, and urge caution about attempts to establish universal parameterizations of these effects; (b) are congruent with theories of sequence judgment that emphasize the importance of people's actual experiences with sequences of different kinds; (c) provide a link between models of sequence judgment and broader accounts of psychophysical/economic judgment; and (d) may offer new insight into individual differences in randomness judgments and sequence predictions.

  5. CT-Guided Radiofrequency Ablation of T1a Renal Cell Carcinoma in Korea: Mid-Term Outcomes

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Hae Jin; Park, Jung Jae; Kim, Chan Kyo

    2016-01-01

    Objective To evaluate the mid-term outcomes of percutaneous radiofrequency ablation (RFA) treatment in patients with small (< 4 cm) renal cell carcinoma (RCC) in Korea. Materials and Methods Between 2010 and 2015, 51 patients (40 men and 11 women; median age, 57 years) with biopsyproven 51 RCC were treated using CT-guided RFA. All patients were clinically staged T1aN0M0 prior to RFA. The median tumor size and follow-up period were 2.1 cm (range, 1.0–3.9 cm) and 26 months (4–60 months), respectively. Local tumor progression, distant metastasis, primary and secondary effectiveness rates, and major complication rates were recorded. Estimated glomerular filtration rates (GFRs) between pre-RFA and last follow-up were compared using paired t tests. The 2-year recurrence-free survival rate was calculated using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. Results Of the 51 patients, 2 (3.9%) experienced local tumor progression, and 1 (2.0%) had lymph node metastasis after the first RFA session. Primary and secondary effectiveness rates were 96.1% (49/51) and 100% (1/1), respectively. Only 1 patient experienced a major complication (uretero-pelvic stricture) after the second RFA session for treating a local tumor progression, and the major complication rate was 1.9% (1/52). The median pre-RFA and last follow-up GFRs were 87.1 mL/ min/1.73 m2 (14.2–142.7 mL/min/1.73 m2) and 72.0 mL/min/1.73 m2 (7.2–112.6 mL/min/1.73 m2), respectively (p < 0.0001). The 2-year recurrence-free survival rate was 96.0%. Conclusion CT-guided RFA is a safe and effective treatment in Korean patients with T1a RCC because of excellent mid-term outcomes. PMID:27587966

  6. Non-pulmonary vein foci induced before and after pulmonary vein isolation in patients undergoing ablation therapy for paroxysmal atrial fibrillation: incidence and clinical outcome

    PubMed Central

    Cheng, Hui; Dai, Yin-yin; Jiang, Ru-hong; Liu, Qiang; Sun, Ya-xun; Lin, Jian-wei; Zhang, Zu-wen; Chen, Shi-quan; Zhu, Jun; Sheng, Xia; Jiang, Chen-yang

    2014-01-01

    Objective: To evaluate the incidence and clinical outcome of adenosine triphosphate (ATP) plus isoproterenol (ISP)-induced non-pulmonary vein (PV) foci before and after circumferential PV isolation (CPVI) during index ablation in patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF). Methods: In 80 consecutive patients undergoing catheter ablation for drug-refractory, symptomatic PAF at our hospital from April 2010 to January 2011, atrial fibrillation (AF) was provoked with ATP (20 mg) and ISP (20 μg/min) administration before and after CPVI. The spontaneous initiation of AF was mapped and recorded. Results: Before ablation, AF mostly originating from PVs (PV vs. non-PV, 36/70 vs. 3/70; P<0.01) was induced in 39 patients with sinus rhythm. CPVI significantly suppressed AF inducibility; however, more non-PV foci were provoked (post-CPVI vs. pre-CPVI, 13/76 vs. 3/70; P=0.016). Patients with pre- and post-CPVI induced AF (n=49) were divided according to non-PV foci being induced (group N, n=17) or not (group P, n=32). After mean (19.2±8.2) months follow-up, 88.2% (15/17) and 65.6% (21/32) of patients in groups N and P, respectively, were free from AF recurrence (P=0.088). Conclusions: ATP+ISP administration effectively provokes non-PV foci, especially after CPVI in PAF patients. Although in this study difference did not achieve statistical significance, supplementary ablation targeting non-PV foci might benefit clinical outcome. PMID:25294381

  7. Genomic approaches to outcome prediction in prostate cancer.

    PubMed

    Febbo, Phillip G

    2009-07-01

    Prostate cancer remains a common cause of cancer death in men. Applications of emerging genomic technologies to high-quality prostate cancer models and patient samples in multiple contexts have made significant contributions to our molecular understanding of the development and progression of prostate cancer. Genomic analysis of DNA, RNA, and protein alterations allows for the global assessment of this disease and provides the molecular framework to improve risk classification, outcome prediction, and development of targeted therapies. In this review, the author focused on highlighting recent work in genomics and its role in evaluating molecular modifiers of prostate cancer risk and behavior and the development of predictive models that anticipate the risk of developing prostate cancer, prostate cancer progression, and the response of prostate cancer to therapy. This framework has the exciting potential to be predictive and to provide personalized and individual treatment to the large number of men diagnosed with prostate cancer each year. Cancer 2009;115(13 suppl):3046-57. (c) 2009 American Cancer Society. PMID:19544546

  8. The role of prediction and outcomes in adaptive cognitive control.

    PubMed

    Schiffer, Anne-Marike; Waszak, Florian; Yeung, Nick

    2015-01-01

    Humans adaptively perform actions to achieve their goals. This flexible behaviour requires two core abilities: the ability to anticipate the outcomes of candidate actions and the ability to select and implement actions in a goal-directed manner. The ability to predict outcomes has been extensively researched in reinforcement learning paradigms, but this work has often focused on simple actions that are not embedded in hierarchical and sequential structures that are characteristic of goal-directed human behaviour. On the other hand, the ability to select actions in accordance with high-level task goals, particularly in the presence of alternative responses and salient distractors, has been widely researched in cognitive control paradigms. Cognitive control research, however, has often paid less attention to the role of action outcomes. The present review attempts to bridge these accounts by proposing an outcome-guided mechanism for selection of extended actions. Our proposal builds on constructs from the hierarchical reinforcement learning literature, which emphasises the concept of reaching and evaluating informative states, i.e., states that constitute subgoals in complex actions. We develop an account of the neural mechanisms that allow outcome-guided action selection to be achieved in a network that relies on projections from cortical areas to the basal ganglia and back-projections from the basal ganglia to the cortex. These cortico-basal ganglia-thalamo-cortical 'loops' allow convergence - and thus integration - of information from non-adjacent cortical areas (for example between sensory and motor representations). This integration is essential in action sequences, for which achieving an anticipated sensory state signals the successful completion of an action. We further describe how projection pathways within the basal ganglia allow selection between representations, which may pertain to movements, actions, or extended action plans. The model lastly envisages

  9. Nonequilibrium Ablation of Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Milos, Frank S.; Chen, Yih K.; Gokcen, Tahir

    2012-01-01

    In previous work, an equilibrium ablation and thermal response model for Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator was developed. In general, over a wide range of test conditions, model predictions compared well with arcjet data for surface recession, surface temperature, in-depth temperature at multiple thermocouples, and char depth. In this work, additional arcjet tests were conducted at stagnation conditions down to 40 W/sq cm and 1.6 kPa. The new data suggest that nonequilibrium effects become important for ablation predictions at heat flux or pressure below about 80 W/sq cm or 10 kPa, respectively. Modifications to the ablation model to account for nonequilibrium effects are investigated. Predictions of the equilibrium and nonequilibrium models are compared with the arcjet data.

  10. Radiofrequency Ablation of Colorectal Liver Metastases: Small Size Favorably Predicts Technique Effectiveness and Survival

    SciTech Connect

    Veltri, Andrea Sacchetto, Paola; Tosetti, Irene; Pagano, Eva; Fava, Cesare; Gandini, Giovanni

    2008-09-15

    The objective of this study was to analyze long-term results of radiofrequency thermal ablation (RFA) for colorectal metastases (MTS), in order to evaluate predictors for adverse events, technique effectiveness, and survival. One hundred ninety-nine nonresectable MTS (0.5-8 cm; mean, 2.9 cm) in 122 patients underwent a total of 166 RFA sessions, percutaneously or during surgery. The technique was 'simple' or 'combined' with vascular occlusion. The mean follow-up time was 24.2 months. Complications, technique effectiveness, and survival rates were statistically analyzed. Adverse events occurred in 8.1% of lesions (major complication rate: 1.1%), 7.1% with simple and 16.7% with combined technique (p = 0.15). Early complete response was obtained in 151 lesions (81.2%), but 49 lesions (26.3%) recurred locally after a mean of 10.4 months. Sustained complete ablation was achieved in 66.7% of lesions {<=}3 cm versus 33.3% of lesions >3 cm (p < 0.0001). Survival rates at 1, 3, and 5 years were 91%, 54%, and 33%, respectively, from the diagnosis of MTS and 79%, 38%, and 22%, respectively, from RFA. Mean survival time from RFA was 31.5 months, 36.2 in patients with main MTS {<=}3 cm and 23.2 in those with at least one lesion >3 cm (p = 0.006). We conclude that 'simple' RFA is safe and successful for MTS {<=}3 cm, contributing to prolong survival when patients can be completely treated.

  11. Planning and predictability of clinical outcomes in esthetic rehabilitation.

    PubMed

    Kurbad, A

    2015-01-01

    In esthetic rehabilitation, it is a challenge to meet the needs of patients with growing expectations. Creating predictable results is the key to success. This can be accomplished by performing a comprehensive esthetic diagnosis, elaborating treatment proposals that satisfy today's esthetic standards, and using modern computer-assisted methods. The diagnostic wax-up and mock-up are effective tools that allow patients to visualize treatment proposals without invasive procedures. Once the patient has approved the proposals, they provide the basis for the fabrication of the final restoration. The use of modern ceramic materials makes it possible to achieve a good esthetic outcome, even in restorations with extremely thin layer thicknesses. Esthetic cementation is the final step of restorative treatment.

  12. Facial Trustworthiness Predicts Extreme Criminal-Sentencing Outcomes.

    PubMed

    Wilson, John Paul; Rule, Nicholas O

    2015-08-01

    Untrustworthy faces incur negative judgments across numerous domains. Existing work in this area has focused on situations in which the target's trustworthiness is relevant to the judgment (e.g., criminal verdicts and economic games). Yet in the present studies, we found that people also overgeneralized trustworthiness in criminal-sentencing decisions when trustworthiness should not be judicially relevant, and they did so even for the most extreme sentencing decision: condemning someone to death. In Study 1, we found that perceptions of untrustworthiness predicted death sentences (vs. life sentences) for convicted murderers in Florida (N = 742). Moreover, in Study 2, we found that the link between trustworthiness and the death sentence occurred even when participants viewed innocent people who had been exonerated after originally being sentenced to death. These results highlight the power of facial appearance to prejudice perceivers and affect life outcomes even to the point of execution, which suggests an alarming bias in the criminal-justice system.

  13. Planning and predictability of clinical outcomes in esthetic rehabilitation.

    PubMed

    Kurbad, A

    2015-01-01

    In esthetic rehabilitation, it is a challenge to meet the needs of patients with growing expectations. Creating predictable results is the key to success. This can be accomplished by performing a comprehensive esthetic diagnosis, elaborating treatment proposals that satisfy today's esthetic standards, and using modern computer-assisted methods. The diagnostic wax-up and mock-up are effective tools that allow patients to visualize treatment proposals without invasive procedures. Once the patient has approved the proposals, they provide the basis for the fabrication of the final restoration. The use of modern ceramic materials makes it possible to achieve a good esthetic outcome, even in restorations with extremely thin layer thicknesses. Esthetic cementation is the final step of restorative treatment. PMID:25911830

  14. Burst suppression electroencephalogram pattern in the newborn: predicting the outcome.

    PubMed

    Douglass, Laurie M; Wu, Joyce Y; Rosman, N Paul; Stafstrom, Carl E

    2002-06-01

    A neonatal burst suppression electroencephalogram (EEG) is usually associated with an ominous prognosis. It is controversial whether a reactive burst suppression pattern (ie, a burst suppression pattern that can be interrupted by stimulation) is predictive of a better outcome. We retrospectively studied 22 full-term newborns with burst suppression EEGs to examine their functional outcome. Follow-up (3 to 9 years) was by record review and telephone interview. On the basis of initial EEG pattern and prognosis, three groups were identified post hoc: group 1 (n = 16) had initially nonreactive burst suppression EEGs that remained abnormal; 11 patients died, 4 remained profoundly impaired (nonambulatory, nonverbal), and 1 was moderately impaired (unassisted ambulation, limited speech). Group 2 (n = 3) had initially nonreactive burst suppression EEGs that later improved substantially (within a mean of 7 weeks). At follow-up (3 to 8 1/2 years), each child was waLking (one with braces), talking, and enrolled in special education. Group 3 (n = 3) had reactive burst suppression EEGs initially. At follow-up (ages 3 1/2 to 9 years), each child was walking unassisted and speaking in sentences. Two children in group 3 were of preschool age, and the third was in a special needs program. Although most newborns with nonreactive burst suppression EEGs have a dire neurologic outcome, of those in whom the EEG improves early, the prognosis may be slightly more favorable. Infants with reactive burst suppression EEGs during the acute phase of illness appear to have the best prognosis.

  15. INVESTIGATING AND PREDICTING EARLY LUMBAR SPINE SURGERY OUTCOMES

    PubMed Central

    Kanaan, Saddam F; Arnold, Paul M; Burton, Douglas C; Yeh, Hung-Wen; Loyd, Lindsay; Sharma, Neena K

    2016-01-01

    Objective To examine short-term changes in patients’ clinical status following Lumbar Spine Surgery (LSS), and to explore presurgical variables that predict surgical outcomes. Methods Prospective cohort study. A total of 46 patients underwent LSS. Patients completed following questionnaires one week before LSS and two weeks following discharge from hospital: back and leg visual pain analogue scale, Ronald Morris questionnaire (RMQ), Modified Somatic Perception questionnaire (MSPQ), SF-36, Fear-Avoidance Beliefs Questionnaire, Beck’s Depression Inventory, EuroQol questionnaire, and patient-perception of improvement. Regression models were constructed to examine predictors of pain, function, quality of life, and patient-perception of improvement at 2-weeks postsurgery. Results Patients demonstrated significant improvement in back and leg pain and function. MSPQ and symptom duration were significant predictors of back pain, while type of diagnosis and use of opioids were significant predictors of leg pain. Baseline MSPQ and RMQ were significant predictors of postoperative RMQ. MSPQ, gender, and back pain were significant predictors of quality of life. Back pain, leg pain, depression, smoking, and worker’s compensation were significantly associated with patient-perception of improvement. Conclusions This preliminary study could be viewed as a directory to identify potential risk factors for unfavorable outcomes at early stages following LSS. PMID:26046115

  16. Delay Discounting Predicts Adolescent Substance Abuse Treatment Outcome

    PubMed Central

    Stanger, Catherine; Ryan, Stacy R.; Fu, Hongyun; Landes, Reid D.; Jones, Bryan A.; Bickel, Warren K.; Budney, Alan J.

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of the current study was to identify predictors of delay discounting among adolescents receiving treatment for marijuana abuse or dependence, and to test delay discounting as a predictor of treatment outcome. Participants for this study were 165 adolescents (88% male) between the ages of 12 and 18 (M =15.8; SD = 1.3) who enrolled in a clinical trial comparing three behavioral treatments for adolescent marijuana abuse or dependence. Participants completed a delay discounting task at treatment onset for $100 and $1,000 of hypothetical money and marijuana. Overall, smaller magnitude rewards were discounted more than larger magnitude rewards. Delay discounting rates were concurrently related to demographic variables (SES, race). Delay discounting of $1,000 of money predicted during treatment abstinence outcomes among adolescent marijuana abusers, over and above the effects of type of treatment received. Teens who show higher levels of discounting of the future may be an important subgroup to identify at treatment onset. Youth with a greater tendency to discount the future may require different intervention strategies that address their impulsivity (e.g., targeting executive function or inhibitory control) and/or different schedules of reinforcement to address their degree of preference for immediate rewards. PMID:22182419

  17. Predictive Models of Cognitive Outcomes of Developmental Insults

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chan, Yupo; Bouaynaya, Nidhal; Chowdhury, Parimal; Leszczynska, Danuta; Patterson, Tucker A.; Tarasenko, Olga

    2010-04-01

    Representatives of Arkansas medical, research and educational institutions have gathered over the past four years to discuss the relationship between functional developmental perturbations and their neurological consequences. We wish to track the effect on the nervous system by developmental perturbations over time and across species. Except for perturbations, the sequence of events that occur during neural development was found to be remarkably conserved across mammalian species. The tracking includes consequences on anatomical regions and behavioral changes. The ultimate goal is to develop a predictive model of long-term genotypic and phenotypic outcomes that includes developmental insults. Such a model can subsequently be fostered into an educated intervention for therapeutic purposes. Several datasets were identified to test plausible hypotheses, ranging from evoked potential datasets to sleep-disorder datasets. An initial model may be mathematical and conceptual. However, we expect to see rapid progress as large-scale gene expression studies in the mammalian brain permit genome-wide searches to discover genes that are uniquely expressed in brain circuits and regions. These genes ultimately control behavior. By using a validated model we endeavor to make useful predictions.

  18. A randomized prospective mechanistic cardiac magnetic resonance study correlating catheter stability, late gadolinium enhancement and 3 year clinical outcomes in robotically assisted vs. standard catheter ablation

    PubMed Central

    Arujuna, Aruna; Karim, Rashed; Zarinabad, Niloufar; Gill, Jaspal; Rhode, Kawal; Schaeffter, Tobias; Wright, Matthew; Rinaldi, C. Aldo; Cooklin, Michael; Razavi, Reza; O'Neill, Mark D.; Gill, Jaswinder S.

    2015-01-01

    Aims To prospectively compare cardiac magnetic resonance late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) findings created by standard vs. robotically assisted catheter ablation lesions and correlate these with clinical outcomes. Methods and results Forty paroxysmal atrial fibrillation patients (mean age 54 ± 13.8 years) undergoing first left atrial ablation were randomized to either robotic-assisted navigation (Hansen Sensei® X) or standard navigation. Pre-procedural, acute (24 h post-procedure) and late (beyond 3 months) scans were performed with LGE and T2W imaging sequences and percentage circumferential enhancement around the pulmonary vein (PV) antra were quantified. Baseline pre-procedural enhancements were similar in both groups. On acute imaging, mean % encirclements by LGE and T2W signal were 72% and 80% in the robotic group vs. 60% (P = 0.002) and 76%(P = 0.45) for standard ablation. On late imaging, the T2W signal resolved to baseline in both groups. Late gadolinium enhancement remained the predominant signal with 56% encirclement in the robotic group vs. 45% in the standard group (P = 0.04). At 6 months follow-up, arrhythmia-free patients had an almost similar mean LGE encirclement (robotic 64%, standard 60%, P = 0.45) but in recurrences, LGE was higher in the robotic group (43% vs. 30%, P = 0.001). At mean 3 years follow-up, 1.3 procedures were performed in the robotic group compared with 1.9 (P < 0.001) in the standard to achieve a success rate of 80% vs. 75%. Conclusion Robotically assisted ablation results in greater LGE around the PV antrum. Effective lesions created through improved catheter stability and contact force during initial treatment may have a role in reducing subsequent re-do procedures. PMID:25687748

  19. Gender identity outcome in female-raised 46,XY persons with penile agenesis, cloacal exstrophy of the bladder, or penile ablation.

    PubMed

    Meyer-Bahlburg, Heino F L

    2005-08-01

    This review addresses the long-term gender outcome of gender assignment of persons with intersexuality and related conditions. The gender assignment to female of 46,XY newborns with severe genital abnormalities despite a presumably normal-male prenatal sex-hormone milieu is highly controversial because of variations in assumptions about the role of biological factors in gender identity formation. This article presents a literature review of gender outcome in three pertinent conditions (penile agenesis, cloacal exstrophy of the bladder, and penile ablation) in infancy or early childhood. The findings clearly indicate an increased risk of later patient-initiated gender re-assignment to male after female assignment in infancy or early childhood, but are nevertheless incompatible with the notion of a full determination of core gender identity by prenatal androgens.

  20. Low inhibitory control and restrictive feeding practices predict weight outcomes

    PubMed Central

    Anzman, Stephanie L.; Birch, Leann L.

    2009-01-01

    Objective A priority for research is to identify individuals early in development who are particularly susceptible to weight gain in the current, obesogenic environment. This longitudinal study investigated whether early individual differences in inhibitory control, an aspect of temperament, predicted weight outcomes and whether parents’ restrictive feeding practices moderated this relation. Study design Participants included 197 non-Hispanic White girls and their parents; families were assessed when girls were 5, 7, 9, 11, 13, and 15 years old. Measures included mothers’ reports of girls’ inhibitory control levels, girls’ reports of parental restriction in feeding, girls’ body mass indexes (BMIs), and parents’ BMIs, education, and income. Results Girls with lower inhibitory control at age 7 had higher concurrent BMIs, greater weight gain, higher BMIs at all subsequent time points, and were 1.95 times more likely to be overweight at age 15. Girls who perceived higher parental restriction exhibited the strongest inverse relation between inhibitory control and weight status. Conclusion Variability in inhibitory control could help identify individuals who are predisposed to obesity risk; the current findings also highlight the importance of parenting practices as potentially modifiable factors which exacerbate or attenuate this risk. PMID:19595373

  1. Patient assessment: preparing for a predictable aesthetic outcome.

    PubMed

    Mehta, Shamir B; Banerji, Subir; Aulakh, Raman

    2015-01-01

    The flux of patients seeking to make changes to the appearance of their smile zone appears to be on a pathway of continual increase. This is possibly due to an increase in awareness towards oral health, and perhaps social, peer and media pressures, respectively. Cohorts of dental practitioners have thus responded to the latter demands by attending a plethora of educational courses, often focusing on either restorative techniques or other disciplines, notably orthodontics and clear aligners in particular. Consequently, treatment planning and thus treatment provision may carry the risk of being biased or indeed 'outcome driven' whereby the skills and knowledge of any clinician towards a particular faculty may significantly influence the ultimate treatment plan, with the unfortunate tendency sometimes to overlook the role of the interdisciplinary approach of concomitant restorative and contemporary techniques. The role of orthodontics to facilitate the provision of such treatment, along with predictable enamel bonding, has the distinct advantage of providing an acceptable aesthetic result with minimal biological intervention. However, to achieve an optimal result in such cases requires meticulous treatment planning and patient selection to avoid pitfalls with regards to long-term stability and function. This article suggests a standardized approach to patient assessment, with an interdisciplinary perspective in mind. Clinical Relevance: With the growth of patient demand for improving the appearance of the smile, a meticulous assessment protocol is required along with effective interdisciplinary communication. This enables a comprehensive treatment plan to be developed with the correct priorities.

  2. Prediction of outcomes in young adults with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage.

    PubMed

    Chotai, Silky; Ahn, Sung-Yong; Moon, Hong-Joo; Kim, Jong-Hyun; Chung, Heung-Seob; Chung, Yong-Gu; Kwon, Taek-Hyun

    2013-01-01

    Subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) is rare in young adults and little is known about aneurysms in this subgroup. The effect of clinical and prognostic factors on the outcome based on the Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) scores and the predictors of unfavorable outcomes were analyzed in young adults with aneurysmal SAH. A retrospective review of the clinical parameters, including age, sex, hypertension, smoking status, hyperlipidemia, location of the cerebral aneurysm, size of the aneurysm, multiplicity, perioperative complication such as hydrocephalus, vasospasm, and hematoma, and Hunt and Hess and Fisher grading on presentation, was conducted in 108 young adults (mean age 34.8 years) managed at our institute. The outcome was classified based on GOS grading into unfavorable (GOS scores 1-3) or favorable (GOS scores 4 or 5). The overall mortality rate was 3.7% (4/108 patients). Univariate regression analysis for the outcomes at discharge found that age at the time of presentation, male sex, size of aneurysm, multiple aneurysms, hyperlipidemia, and poor Hunt and Hess and Fischer grades were associated with unfavorable outcome. Multivariate regression analysis found independent effects of sex, multiple aneurysms, size of aneurysm, and Hunt and Hess grade on the outcome at discharge. Size of aneurysm, presence of multiple aneurysms, Hunt and Hess grade, and hypertension were the predictors of outcome at mean 2-year follow up based on multivariate exact regression analysis. The multimodal approach with aggressive medical management, early intervention, and surgical treatment might contribute to favorable long-term outcomes in patients with poor expected outcomes.

  3. Apples and oranges: comparison of ACS-NSQIP observed outcomes with premier's quality manager-predicted outcomes.

    PubMed

    Lee, Louis C; Reines, H David; Sheridan, Michael J; Farmer, Barbara E; Martin, John; Duan, Michael

    2011-01-01

    The National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) is used by the American College of Surgeons to measure and report surgical quality and outcomes. Premier's Quality Manager (QM) generates expected outcomes from patient charts. The authors compared observed NSQIP morbidity and mortality outcomes with those predicted by QM. NSQIP data for 1919 patients were entered into QM. The discriminatory accuracy of the QM model was assessed using the C statistic (1.0 implies perfect discrimination, and 0.5 implies no discrimination). NSQIP and QM both identified 51 deaths (C statistic, 0.91). NSQIP identified 478 postoperative occurrences, whereas QM predicted 714 patients with at least 1 complication; 223 of these were subclassified as patients with at least 1 morbid complication (C statistic, 0.83). QM did not perform as well in predicting the observed NSQIP morbidities. Surgical leaders and hospital administrators must critically evaluate products before adopting programs designed to improve patient outcomes or making decisions regarding physician practice.

  4. Predicting postoperative visual outcomes in cataract patients with maculopathy

    PubMed Central

    Macky, Tamer A; Mohamed, Abdel Moniem Hasaballah; Emarah, Ahmed M; Osman, Amr Abdellatif; Gado, Ahmed S

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: To assess the accuracy of the potential acuity meter (PAM) in predicting postcataract surgery visual acuity outcome in patients with healed inactive maculopathies. Study Design: Prospective interventional clinical trial. Patients and Methods: Patients scheduled for phacoemulsification had preoperative and 1 month postoperative best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA), PAM test, fluorescein angiography, and macular optical coherence tomography. Patients were grouped to following preoperative BCVA: PRE1: 0.29 and better, PRE2: 0.25–0.13, and PRE3: 0.1 or worse; age: G1 <60, G2 = 60–70, and G3 >70 years. PAM accuracy was divided into: Grade 1: Postoperative BCVA ≤1 or less line error of the PAM score, Grade 2: Between 1 and 2 lines error, and Grade 3: ≥3 lines or more error. Results: This study enrolled 57 patients with a mean age of 71.05 ± 6.78 years where 34 were females. There were 21 (36.84%) patients with diabetic maculopathy and 36 (63.16%) with age-related macular degeneration. The mean preoperative BCVA was 0.198 ± 0.12 (0.1–0.5). The mean PAM score was 0.442 ± 0.24 (0.1–1.3). The mean postoperative BCVA was 0.4352 ± 0.19 (0.17–1.00). The PAM score was in Grade 1, 2, and 3 in 46 (80.7%), 54 (94.7%), and 56 (98.2), respectively. There was a highly significant correlation between the PAM score and the postoperative BCVA (P < 0.001, Chi-square test). There was no correlation between the PAM test accuracy and age, gender, diagnosis, and preoperative BCVA (P = 0.661, 0.667, 0. 0.991, 0.833, Chi-square test; respectively). Conclusion: The PAM is an accurate method of predicting postoperative visual acuity for eyes with nuclear cataracts Grade I and II and inactive maculopathies. PMID:26655002

  5. Developing demographic toxicity data: optimizing effort for predicting population outcomes

    PubMed Central

    Stark, John D.

    2016-01-01

    Mounting evidence suggests that population endpoints in risk assessment are far more accurate than static assessments. Complete demographic toxicity data based on full life tables are eminently useful in predicting population outcomes in many applications because they capture both lethal and sublethal effects; however, developing these life tables is extremely costly. In this study we investigated the efficiency of partial life cycle tests as a substitute for full life cycles in parameterizing population models. Life table data were developed for three species of Daphniids, Ceriodaphnia dubia, Daphnia magna, and D. pulex, weekly throughout the life span of these species. Population growth rates (λ) and a series of other demographic parameters generated from the complete life cycle were compared to those calculated from cumulative weeks of the life cycle in order to determine the minimum number of weeks needed to generate an accurate population projection. Results showed that for C. dubia and D. pulex, λ values developed at >4 weeks (44.4% of the life cycle) were not significantly different from λ developed for the full life cycle (9 weeks) of each species. For D. magna, λ values developed at >7 weeks (70% of the life cycle) were not significantly different from λ developed for the full life cycle (10 weeks). Furthermore, these cutoff points for λ were not the same for other demographic parameters, with no clear pattern emerging. Our results indicate that for C. dubia, D. magna, and D. pulex, partial life tables can be used to generate population growth rates in lieu of full life tables. However, the implications of differences in cutoff points for different demographic parameters need to be investigated further. PMID:27257546

  6. Developing demographic toxicity data: optimizing effort for predicting population outcomes.

    PubMed

    Stark, John D; Banks, John E

    2016-01-01

    Mounting evidence suggests that population endpoints in risk assessment are far more accurate than static assessments. Complete demographic toxicity data based on full life tables are eminently useful in predicting population outcomes in many applications because they capture both lethal and sublethal effects; however, developing these life tables is extremely costly. In this study we investigated the efficiency of partial life cycle tests as a substitute for full life cycles in parameterizing population models. Life table data were developed for three species of Daphniids, Ceriodaphnia dubia, Daphnia magna, and D. pulex, weekly throughout the life span of these species. Population growth rates (λ) and a series of other demographic parameters generated from the complete life cycle were compared to those calculated from cumulative weeks of the life cycle in order to determine the minimum number of weeks needed to generate an accurate population projection. Results showed that for C. dubia and D. pulex, λ values developed at >4 weeks (44.4% of the life cycle) were not significantly different from λ developed for the full life cycle (9 weeks) of each species. For D. magna, λ values developed at >7 weeks (70% of the life cycle) were not significantly different from λ developed for the full life cycle (10 weeks). Furthermore, these cutoff points for λ were not the same for other demographic parameters, with no clear pattern emerging. Our results indicate that for C. dubia, D. magna, and D. pulex, partial life tables can be used to generate population growth rates in lieu of full life tables. However, the implications of differences in cutoff points for different demographic parameters need to be investigated further. PMID:27257546

  7. Hazards of Hospitalization: Residence Prior to Admission Predicts Outcomes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Friedman, Susan M.; Mendelson, Daniel A.; Bingham, Karilee W.; McCann, Robert M.

    2008-01-01

    Purpose: Previous studies investigating adverse outcomes of hospitalized elders have focused on community-dwelling patients. Given the rapid growth of populations living in other settings, such as assisted living facilities, it is important to understand whether these patients are at higher risk of experiencing specific adverse outcomes during…

  8. Incidence and Factors Predicting Skin Burns at the Site of Indifferent Electrode during Radiofrequency Catheter Ablation of Cardiac Arrhythmias

    PubMed Central

    Ibrahim, Hussain; Finta, Bohuslav; Rind, Jubran

    2016-01-01

    Radiofrequency catheter ablation (RFA) has become a mainstay for treatment of cardiac arrhythmias. Skin burns at the site of an indifferent electrode patch have been a rare, serious, and likely an underreported complication of RFA. The purpose of this study was to determine the incidence of skin burns in cardiac RFA procedures performed at one institution. Also, we wanted to determine the factors predicting skin burns after cardiac RFA procedures at the indifferent electrode skin pad site. Methods. A retrospective case control study was performed to compare the characteristics in patients who developed skin burns in a 2-year period. Results. Incidence of significant skin burns after RFA was 0.28% (6/2167). Four of the six patients were female and all were Caucasians. Four controls for every case were age and sex matched. Burn patients had significantly higher BMI, procedure time, and postprocedure pain, relative to control subjects (p < 0.05, one-tailed testing). No one in either group had evidence of dispersive pad malattachment. Conclusions. Our results indicate that burn patients had higher BMI and longer procedure times compared to control subjects. These findings warrant further larger studies on this topic. PMID:27213077

  9. Role of Subdural Electrocorticography in Prediction of Long-Term Seizure Outcome in Epilepsy Surgery

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Asano, Eishi; Juhasz, Csaba; Shah, Aashit; Sood, Sandeep; Chugani, Harry T.

    2009-01-01

    Since prediction of long-term seizure outcome using preoperative diagnostic modalities remains suboptimal in epilepsy surgery, we evaluated whether interictal spike frequency measures obtained from extraoperative subdural electrocorticography (ECoG) recording could predict long-term seizure outcome. This study included 61 young patients (age…

  10. Longitudinal Prediction of Child Outcomes from Differing Measures of Parenting in a Low-Income Sample

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zaslow, Martha J.; Weinfield, Nancy S.; Gallagher, Megan; Hair, Elizabeth C.; Ogawa, John R.; Egeland, Byron; Tabors, Patton O.; De Temple, Jeanne M.

    2006-01-01

    This study examined predictions from preschool parenting measures to middle childhood cognitive and socioemotional child outcomes to explore whether parenting assessment methodologies that require more time, training, and expense yield better predictions of child outcomes than less intensive methodologies. Mother-child dyads (N=278) in low-income…

  11. Predicting Outcome in Acute Low-Back Pain

    PubMed Central

    Singer, Joel; Gilbert, J.R.; Hutton, Tim; Taylor, D.W.

    1987-01-01

    Patients presenting to their family physician with acute low-back pain were studied prospectively. Demographic factors and patient history at the initial visit were assessed to determine important predictors of selected clinical outcomes, including time to resumption of normal activities and time to relief from pain. While several predictors were significantly correlated with each of the outcomes assessed, the most consistent predictor of outcome proved to be the reported pain intensity at the initial visit. Baseline levels of pain intensity were related to expected time of recovery and probability of periodic pain in the future. Data collected in the initial history and physical examination of patients permit an assessment of factors that may be useful in establishing prognosis for relevant clinical outcomes. PMID:21263854

  12. Predictability influences whether outcomes are processed in terms of original or relative values.

    PubMed

    Zeng, Jianmin; Cao, Zhipeng; Huang, Jiajin; Hitchman, Glenn; Zhang, Qinglin

    2014-10-01

    Previous studies have provided insights into the representations of original and relative values and the influence of predictability on decision making. However, whether the predictability of outcomes can influence the processing manner of outcomes (i.e. whether the outcomes are processed in terms of original or relative values) is still unknown. To investigate this issue, we had participants perform a monetary decision task which resulted in two outcomes with the same relative values but different original values in either a predictable or unpredictable condition, while recording event-related potentials (ERP). ERP results showed that the outcome processing in the unpredictable condition elicited more positive deflections in the time window of 300-500ms (P300) than did those in the predictable condition. More importantly, the outcome with high original value elicited a greater P300 component than did that with low original value in the unpredictable condition even though these two outcomes had the same relative values, while in the predictable condition no significant difference was observed between ERPs elicited by the two outcomes even though their original values were different. These results suggest that the outcomes might be processed in terms of relative values in the predictable condition but original values in the unpredictable condition. PMID:24905428

  13. Early prediction of tumor recurrence based on CT texture changes after stereotactic ablative radiotherapy (SABR) for lung cancer

    SciTech Connect

    Mattonen, Sarah A.; Palma, David A.; Haasbeek, Cornelis J. A.; Senan, Suresh; Ward, Aaron D.

    2014-03-15

    Purpose: Benign computed tomography (CT) changes due to radiation induced lung injury (RILI) are common following stereotactic ablative radiotherapy (SABR) and can be difficult to differentiate from tumor recurrence. The authors measured the ability of CT image texture analysis, compared to more traditional measures of response, to predict eventual cancer recurrence based on CT images acquired within 5 months of treatment. Methods: A total of 24 lesions from 22 patients treated with SABR were selected for this study: 13 with moderate to severe benign RILI, and 11 with recurrence. Three-dimensional (3D) consolidative and ground-glass opacity (GGO) changes were manually delineated on all follow-up CT scans. Two size measures of the consolidation regions (longest axial diameter and 3D volume) and nine appearance features of the GGO were calculated: 2 first-order features [mean density and standard deviation of density (first-order texture)], and 7 second-order texture features [energy, entropy, correlation, inverse difference moment (IDM), inertia, cluster shade, and cluster prominence]. For comparison, the corresponding response evaluation criteria in solid tumors measures were also taken for the consolidation regions. Prediction accuracy was determined using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and two-fold cross validation (CV). Results: For this analysis, 46 diagnostic CT scans scheduled for approximately 3 and 6 months post-treatment were binned based on their recorded scan dates into 2–5 month and 5–8 month follow-up time ranges. At 2–5 months post-treatment, first-order texture, energy, and entropy provided AUCs of 0.79–0.81 using a linear classifier. On two-fold CV, first-order texture yielded 73% accuracy versus 76%–77% with the second-order features. The size measures of the consolidative region, longest axial diameter and 3D volume, gave two-fold CV accuracies of 60% and 57%, and AUCs of 0.72 and 0.65, respectively

  14. Predicting Radiation Pneumonitis After Stereotactic Ablative Radiation Therapy in Patients Previously Treated With Conventional Thoracic Radiation Therapy

    SciTech Connect

    Liu Hui; Zhang Xu; Vinogradskiy, Yevgeniy Y.; Swisher, Stephen G.; Komaki, Ritsuko; Chang, Joe Y.

    2012-11-15

    Purpose: To determine the incidence of and risk factors for radiation pneumonitis (RP) after stereotactic ablative radiation therapy (SABR) to the lung in patients who had previously undergone conventional thoracic radiation therapy. Methods and Materials: Seventy-two patients who had previously received conventionally fractionated radiation therapy to the thorax were treated with SABR (50 Gy in 4 fractions) for recurrent disease or secondary parenchymal lung cancer (T <4 cm, N0, M0, or Mx). Severe (grade {>=}3) RP and potential predictive factors were analyzed by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. A scoring system was established to predict the risk of RP. Results: At a median follow-up time of 16 months after SABR (range, 4-56 months), 15 patients had severe RP (14 [18.9%] grade 3 and 1 [1.4%] grade 5) and 1 patient (1.4%) had a local recurrence. In univariate analyses, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG PS) before SABR, forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1), and previous planning target volume (PTV) location were associated with the incidence of severe RP. The V{sub 10} and mean lung dose (MLD) of the previous plan and the V{sub 10}-V{sub 40} and MLD of the composite plan were also related to RP. Multivariate analysis revealed that ECOG PS scores of 2-3 before SABR (P=.009), FEV1 {<=}65% before SABR (P=.012), V{sub 20} {>=}30% of the composite plan (P=.021), and an initial PTV in the bilateral mediastinum (P=.025) were all associated with RP. Conclusions: We found that severe RP was relatively common, occurring in 20.8% of patients, and could be predicted by an ECOG PS score of 2-3, an FEV1 {<=}65%, a previous PTV spanning the bilateral mediastinum, and V{sub 20} {>=}30% on composite (previous RT+SABR) plans. Prospective studies are needed to validate these predictors and the scoring system on which they are based.

  15. Outcome of patients with hypertrophic obstructive cardiomyopathy after percutaneous transluminal septal myocardial ablation and septal myectomy surgery

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Qin, J. X.; Shiota, T.; Lever, H. M.; Kapadia, S. R.; Sitges, M.; Rubin, D. N.; Bauer, F.; Greenberg, N. L.; Agler, D. A.; Drinko, J. K.; Martin, M.; Tuzcu, E. M.; Smedira, N. G.; Lytle, B.; Thomas, J. D.

    2001-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: This study was conducted to evaluate follow-up results in patients with hypertrophic obstructive cardiomyopathy (HOCM) who underwent either percutaneous transluminal septal myocardial ablation (PTSMA) or septal myectomy. BACKGROUND: Controversy exists with regard to these two forms of treatment for patients with HOCM. METHODS: Of 51 patients with HOCM treated, 25 were treated by PTSMA and 26 patients via myectomy. Two-dimensional echocardiograms were performed before both procedures, immediately afterwards and at a three-month follow-up. The New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class was obtained before the procedures and at follow-up. RESULTS: Interventricular septal thickness was significantly reduced at follow-up in both groups (2.3 +/- 0.4 cm vs. 1.9 +/- 0.4 cm for septal ablation and 2.4 +/- 0.6 cm vs. 1.7 +/- 0.2 cm for myectomy, both p < 0.001). Estimated by continuous-wave Doppler, the resting pressure gradient (PG) across the left ventricular outflow tract (LVOT) significantly decreased immediately after the procedures in both groups (64 +/- 39 mm Hg vs. 28 +/- 29 mm Hg for PTSMA, 62 +/- 43 mm Hg vs. 7 +/- 7 mm Hg for myectomy, both p < 0.0001). At three-month follow-up, the resting PG remained lower in the PTSMA and myectomy groups (24 +/- 19 mm Hg and 11 +/- 6 mm Hg, respectively, vs. those before procedures, both p < 0.0001). The NYHA functional class was also significantly improved in both groups (3.5 +/- 0.5 vs. 1.9 +/- 0.7 for PTSMA, 3.3 +/- 0.5 vs. 1.5 +/- 0.7 for myectomy, both p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Both myectomy and PTSMA reduce LVOT obstruction and significantly improve NYHA functional class in patients with HOCM. However, there are benefits and drawbacks for each therapeutic method that must be counterbalanced when deciding on treatment for LVOT obstruction.

  16. Professor-Student Rapport Scale: Six Items Predict Student Outcomes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wilson, Janie H.; Ryan, Rebecca G.

    2013-01-01

    Rapport between students and teachers leads to numerous positive student outcomes, including attitudes toward the teacher and course, student motivation, and perceived learning. The recent development of a Professor-Student Rapport scale offers assessment of this construct. However, a Cronbach's [alpha] of 0.96 indicated item redundancy, and the…

  17. Predicting Child Outcomes from Preschool Quality in Portugal

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Abreu-Lima, Isabel M. P.; Leal, Teresa B.; Cadima, Joana; Gamelas, Ana Madalena

    2013-01-01

    The main purpose of this study is to analyze whether quality of preschool classrooms relates to 4- and 5-year-old children developmental outcomes. The study was conducted in 60 classrooms in Porto Metropolitan Area, Portugal. Children (N = 215) were evaluated in the literacy, math, and behavior domains. Preschool quality was assessed through…

  18. Predicting Outcome in Behavioral Parent Training: Expected and Unexpected Results

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    MacKenzie, Elizabeth P.; Fite, Paula J.; Bates, John E.

    2004-01-01

    This study examined the relationships among clinical utility and treatment outcome variables in Behavioral Parent Training (BPT). The sample included 21 mothers with 3-8 year-old children with significant externalizing behavior problems who received treatment for Oppositional Defiant Disorder. The primary aim was to relate two treatment…

  19. Writing Abilities Longitudinally Predict Academic Outcomes of Adolescents with ADHD

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Molitor, Stephen J.; Langberg, Joshua M.; Bourchtein, Elizaveta; Eddy, Laura D.; Dvorsky, Melissa R.; Evans, Steven W.

    2016-01-01

    Students with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) often experience a host of negative academic outcomes, and deficits in reading and mathematics abilities contribute to these academic impairments. Students with ADHD may also have difficulties with written expression, but there has been minimal research in this area and it is not clear…

  20. Relatively Random: Context Effects on Perceived Randomness and Predicted Outcomes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Matthews, William J.

    2013-01-01

    This article concerns the effect of context on people's judgments about sequences of chance outcomes. In Experiment 1, participants judged whether sequences were produced by random, mechanical processes (such as a roulette wheel) or skilled human action (such as basketball shots). Sequences with lower alternation rates were judged more likely to…

  1. Pathophysiology, monitoring, outcome prediction, and therapy of shock states.

    PubMed

    Shoemaker, W C

    1987-04-01

    The time course of hemodynamic and oxygen transport patterns of survivors and nonsurvivors of high-risk critical illness patients was used to evaluate pathophysiologic mechanisms, develop outcome predictors, and propose therapeutic goals. The predictors and goals were tested prospectively and resulted in significantly reduced mortality and morbidity.

  2. Revolutionizing Toxicity Testing For Predicting Developmental Outcomes (DNT4)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Characterizing risk from environmental chemical exposure currently requires extensive animal testing; however, alternative approaches are being researched to increase throughput of chemicals screened, decrease reliance on animal testing, and improve accuracy in predicting adverse...

  3. Using Conversation Topics for Predicting Therapy Outcomes in Schizophrenia

    PubMed Central

    Howes, Christine; Purver, Matthew; McCabe, Rose

    2013-01-01

    Previous research shows that aspects of doctor-patient communication in therapy can predict patient symptoms, satisfaction and future adherence to treatment (a significant problem with conditions such as schizophrenia). However, automatic prediction has so far shown success only when based on low-level lexical features, and it is unclear how well these can generalize to new data, or whether their effectiveness is due to their capturing aspects of style, structure or content. Here, we examine the use of topic as a higher-level measure of content, more likely to generalize and to have more explanatory power. Investigations show that while topics predict some important factors such as patient satisfaction and ratings of therapy quality, they lack the full predictive power of lower-level features. For some factors, unsupervised methods produce models comparable to manual annotation. PMID:23943658

  4. Standardized mastery content assessments for predicting NCLEX-RN outcomes.

    PubMed

    Emory, Jan

    2013-01-01

    Nurse educators need predictors of failure for early intervention. This study investigated the predictability of fundamentals, mental health, and pharmacology standardized assessment scores to identify the risk of baccalaureate students' failure on the NCLEX-RN. Using logistic regression the pharmacology assessment score was predictive with 73.7% accuracy. Use of the pharmacology assessment can assist in early identification of at-risk students in efforts to better prepare for the NCLEX-RN examination.

  5. Prediction of cardiovascular outcomes by imaging coronary atherosclerosis

    PubMed Central

    Pathan, Faraz

    2016-01-01

    Over the last two decades, several invasive and non-invasive coronary atherosclerosis imaging modalities have emerged as predictors of cardiovascular outcomes in at-risk population. These modalities have demonstrated independent or incremental prognostic information over existing/standard risk stratification schemes, such as the Framingham risk score (FRS), by identifying characteristics of coronary artery diseases (CADs). In this review, we begin with discussing the importance of pre-test probability and quality of outcome measure, followed by specific findings of each modality in relation to prognosis. We focused on both short and long term prognostic aspects of coronary computed tomography (CT) (including coronary calcium score and coronary angiography) and magnetic resonance imaging as non-invasive tools, as well as invasive modalities including intravascular ultrasound (IVUS), optical coherence tomography (OCT), near infrared spectroscopy and Angioscopy. PMID:27500091

  6. Prediction of outcome of brief psychotherapy from therapist interpretive interventions.

    PubMed

    Marziali, E A

    1984-03-01

    This study replicated Malan's 1976 analysis of psychodynamic interpretations and corrected the major methodological fault in his work: the use of therapist notes for rating the interpretive elements. In this study, the sessions of 25 patients treated in brief dynamic psychotherapy were audiotaped and the ratings of the interpretive interventions were made directly from the audiotapes. Malan's findings were supported. There was a positive association between more favorable outcome, measured on five psychodynamic scales, and the frequency with which therapist interpretations referred to emotions experienced in the transference relationship that were similar to those experienced in relationships with parents and other important persons. The results of this replication indicate that these therapist-offered explanations about the meanings of significant current and past interpersonal relationships contribute to the outcome of brief psychotherapy.

  7. Fluctuating Electrocardiographic Changes Predict Poor Outcomes After Acute Subarachnoid Hemorrhage

    PubMed Central

    Elsharkawy, Hesham; Abd-Elsayed, Alaa; El-Hadi, Sherif; Provencio, Javier; Tetzlaff, John

    2016-01-01

    Background: Electrocardiogram (ECG) abnormalities following aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) have been well documented. Evidence suggests that ECG changes and cardiac dysfunction worsen outcome. Determining which patients are at most risk is unclear but important to ascertain. Methods: We prospectively studied clinical markers, cardiac abnormalities, and clinical outcomes in 20 patients admitted within 48 hours of aneurysmal SAH. All patients had ECGs prior to surgical clipping, during the clipping surgery, and during the postoperative period. Results: The aneurysm was located in the anterior circulation in 17 patients (85%) and in the posterior circulation in 3 patients (15%). Abnormal ECG changes in patients with acute SAH were observed, with a total incidence rate of 65%. The incidence of T wave abnormalities was 53.8% among the patients with ECG changes, 46.2% had ST segment change, and 30.8% had QT interval prolongation. Of the 13 patients with ECG changes, 4 (30.8%) had fluctuating ECG abnormalities (an abnormality that presented and disappeared during the study period or changed in character). All 4 patients with fluctuating ECG changes had a poor outcome (100%) compared to 3 of the 9 patients (33.3%) patients with fixed abnormalities (P<0.05). Conclusion: The unique finding in this study that has not been reported previously in the literature is the contribution of dynamic ECG changes to the prognosis for good recovery from aneurysmal SAH. In our group, all the patients who had ECG changes that fluctuated from one abnormal change to another had a poor outcome. The etiology of this finding is not clear but may open the door to further study into the pathogenesis of cardiac changes in aneurysmal SAH. The clinical utility of the variability of ECG abnormalities needs to be validated in a larger cohort of patients with longer follow-up than was possible in this study. PMID:27660569

  8. Fluctuating Electrocardiographic Changes Predict Poor Outcomes After Acute Subarachnoid Hemorrhage

    PubMed Central

    Elsharkawy, Hesham; Abd-Elsayed, Alaa; El-Hadi, Sherif; Provencio, Javier; Tetzlaff, John

    2016-01-01

    Background: Electrocardiogram (ECG) abnormalities following aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) have been well documented. Evidence suggests that ECG changes and cardiac dysfunction worsen outcome. Determining which patients are at most risk is unclear but important to ascertain. Methods: We prospectively studied clinical markers, cardiac abnormalities, and clinical outcomes in 20 patients admitted within 48 hours of aneurysmal SAH. All patients had ECGs prior to surgical clipping, during the clipping surgery, and during the postoperative period. Results: The aneurysm was located in the anterior circulation in 17 patients (85%) and in the posterior circulation in 3 patients (15%). Abnormal ECG changes in patients with acute SAH were observed, with a total incidence rate of 65%. The incidence of T wave abnormalities was 53.8% among the patients with ECG changes, 46.2% had ST segment change, and 30.8% had QT interval prolongation. Of the 13 patients with ECG changes, 4 (30.8%) had fluctuating ECG abnormalities (an abnormality that presented and disappeared during the study period or changed in character). All 4 patients with fluctuating ECG changes had a poor outcome (100%) compared to 3 of the 9 patients (33.3%) patients with fixed abnormalities (P<0.05). Conclusion: The unique finding in this study that has not been reported previously in the literature is the contribution of dynamic ECG changes to the prognosis for good recovery from aneurysmal SAH. In our group, all the patients who had ECG changes that fluctuated from one abnormal change to another had a poor outcome. The etiology of this finding is not clear but may open the door to further study into the pathogenesis of cardiac changes in aneurysmal SAH. The clinical utility of the variability of ECG abnormalities needs to be validated in a larger cohort of patients with longer follow-up than was possible in this study.

  9. Connectivity-Based Predictions of Hand Motor Outcome for Patients at the Subacute Stage After Stroke

    PubMed Central

    Lindow, Julia; Domin, Martin; Grothe, Matthias; Horn, Ulrike; Eickhoff, Simon B.; Lotze, Martin

    2016-01-01

    Background: Connectivity-based predictions of hand motor outcome have been proposed to be useful in stroke patients. We intended to assess the prognostic value of different imaging methods on short-term (3 months) and long-term (6 months) motor outcome after stroke. Methods: We measured resting state functional connectivity (rsFC), diffusion weighted imaging (DWI) and grip strength in 19 stroke patients within the first days (5–9 days) after stroke. Outcome measurements for short-term (3 months) and long-term (6 months) motor function was assessed by the Motricity Index (MI) of the upper limb and the box and block test (BB). Patients were predominantly mildly affected since signed consent was necessary at inclusion. We performed a multiple stepwise regression analysis to compare the predictive value of rsFC, DWI and clinical measurements. Results: Patients showed relevant improvement in both motor outcome tests. As expected grip strength at inclusion was a predictor for short- and long-term motor outcome as assessed by MI. Diffusion-based tract volume (DTV) of the tracts between ipsilesional primary motor cortex and contralesional anterior cerebellar hemisphere showed a strong trend (p = 0.05) for a predictive power for long-term motor outcome as measured by MI. DTV of the interhemispheric tracts between both primary motor cortices was predictive for both short- and long-term motor outcome in BB. rsFC was not associated with motor outcome. Conclusions: Grip strength is a good predictor of hand motor outcome concerning strength-related measurements (MI) for mildly affected subacute patients. Therefore additional connectivity measurements seem to be redundant in this group. Using more complex movement recruiting bilateral motor areas as an outcome parameter, DTV and in particular interhemispheric pathways might enhance predictive value of hand motor outcome. PMID:27014032

  10. Predicting Residential Treatment Outcomes for Emotionally and Behaviorally Disordered Youth: The Role of Pretreatment Factors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    den Dunnen, Wendy; St. Pierre, Jeff; Stewart, Shannon L.; Johnson, Andrew; Cook, Steven; Leschied, Alan W.

    2012-01-01

    This study examined outcomes with 170 children and youth admitted to residential treatment with complex mental health problems. Overall, outcomes at 2 years post-treatment was predicted by children and youth's behavioral pretreatment status reflected in lower internalizing and externalizing behavior at admission. These findings recognize a cluster…

  11. Predicting Young Adult Outcome among More and Less Cognitively Able Individuals with Autism Spectrum Disorders

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Anderson, Deborah K.; Liang, Jessie W.; Lord, Catherine

    2014-01-01

    Background: The range of outcomes for young adults with Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASD) and the early childhood factors associated with this diversity have implications for clinicians and scientists. Methods: This prospective study provided a unique opportunity to predict outcome 17 years later for a relatively large sample of children diagnosed…

  12. Factors of Learner-Instructor Interaction Which Predict Perceived Learning Outcomes in Online Learning Environment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kang, M.; Im, T.

    2013-01-01

    Interaction in the online learning environment has been regarded as one of the most critical elements that affect learning outcomes. This study examined what factors in learner-instructor interaction can predict the learner's outcomes in the online learning environment. Learners in K Online University participated by answering the survey, and data…

  13. Predicting Student Outcome Measures Using the ASCA National Model Program Audit

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Palmer, Lauren E.; Erford, Bradley T.

    2012-01-01

    This study explored the prediction of student outcome variables from the ASCA national model level of program implementation. A total sampling of schools from two suburban school districts was conducted. Outcome variables were measures of math and reading achievement scores, attendance and graduation rates. Such measures play a central role in…

  14. Preterm birth in twin pregnancies: Clinical outcomes and predictive parameters

    PubMed Central

    Dolgun, Zehra Nihal; Inan, Cihan; Altintas, Ahmet Salih; Okten, Sabri Berkem; Sayin, Niyazi Cenk

    2016-01-01

    Objective: To document the neonatal outcomes of preterm birth in twin pregnancies and to investigate whether perinatal and obstetric parameters are associated with clinical outcomes. Methods: This retrospective trial was conducted on data gathered from 176 preterm twins delivered in the obstetrics and gynecology department of our tertiary care center. Data extracted from medical files of 88 pregnant women who gave preterm birth (at 260/7 to 366/7 gestational weeks) to twins were analyzed. Maternal/fetal descriptive and obstetric parameters, sonographic data, route of delivery, indication for cesarean section, birth weight, Apgar scores, head circumference, umbilical cord length and placental weight were noted. Results: The average age of the pregnant women was 28.8±6.4 years and ultrasonographic gestational age was 31.9±2.6 weeks. Apgar scores at 1st minute were affected significantly by fetal body weight (p=0.001), gestational age (p=0.001), height (p=0.004) and head circumference (p=0.011). None of these variables exhibited a noteworthy effect on Apgar scores at 5th minute. Conclusion: Efforts must be made to achieve advancement of gestational age until delivery in the follow-up preterm of twins. A well-established algorithm with special emphasis to risk factors is necessary to standardize and popularize the appropriate management strategy.

  15. Interspecific interactions through 2 million years: are competitive outcomes predictable?

    PubMed

    Liow, Lee Hsiang; Di Martino, Emanuela; Voje, Kjetil Lysne; Rust, Seabourne; Taylor, Paul D

    2016-08-31

    Ecological interactions affect the survival and reproduction of individuals. However, ecological interactions are notoriously difficult to measure in extinct populations, hindering our understanding of how the outcomes of interactions such as competition vary in time and influence long-term evolutionary changes. Here, the outcomes of spatial competition in a temporally continuous community over evolutionary timescales are presented for the first time. Our research domain is encrusting cheilostome bryozoans from the Wanganui Basin of New Zealand over a ca 2 Myr time period (Pleistocene to Recent). We find that a subset of species can be identified as consistent winners, and others as consistent losers, in the sense that they win or lose interspecific competitive encounters statistically more often than the null hypothesis of 50%. Most species do not improve or worsen in their competitive abilities through the 2 Myr period, but a minority of species are winners in some intervals and losers in others. We found that conspecifics tend to cluster spatially and interact more often than expected under a null hypothesis: most of these are stand-off interactions where the two colonies involved stopped growing at edges of encounter. Counterintuitively, competitive ability has no bearing on ecological dominance. PMID:27581885

  16. Preterm birth in twin pregnancies: Clinical outcomes and predictive parameters

    PubMed Central

    Dolgun, Zehra Nihal; Inan, Cihan; Altintas, Ahmet Salih; Okten, Sabri Berkem; Sayin, Niyazi Cenk

    2016-01-01

    Objective: To document the neonatal outcomes of preterm birth in twin pregnancies and to investigate whether perinatal and obstetric parameters are associated with clinical outcomes. Methods: This retrospective trial was conducted on data gathered from 176 preterm twins delivered in the obstetrics and gynecology department of our tertiary care center. Data extracted from medical files of 88 pregnant women who gave preterm birth (at 260/7 to 366/7 gestational weeks) to twins were analyzed. Maternal/fetal descriptive and obstetric parameters, sonographic data, route of delivery, indication for cesarean section, birth weight, Apgar scores, head circumference, umbilical cord length and placental weight were noted. Results: The average age of the pregnant women was 28.8±6.4 years and ultrasonographic gestational age was 31.9±2.6 weeks. Apgar scores at 1st minute were affected significantly by fetal body weight (p=0.001), gestational age (p=0.001), height (p=0.004) and head circumference (p=0.011). None of these variables exhibited a noteworthy effect on Apgar scores at 5th minute. Conclusion: Efforts must be made to achieve advancement of gestational age until delivery in the follow-up preterm of twins. A well-established algorithm with special emphasis to risk factors is necessary to standardize and popularize the appropriate management strategy. PMID:27648040

  17. Interspecific interactions through 2 million years: are competitive outcomes predictable?

    PubMed Central

    Di Martino, Emanuela; Rust, Seabourne

    2016-01-01

    Ecological interactions affect the survival and reproduction of individuals. However, ecological interactions are notoriously difficult to measure in extinct populations, hindering our understanding of how the outcomes of interactions such as competition vary in time and influence long-term evolutionary changes. Here, the outcomes of spatial competition in a temporally continuous community over evolutionary timescales are presented for the first time. Our research domain is encrusting cheilostome bryozoans from the Wanganui Basin of New Zealand over a ca 2 Myr time period (Pleistocene to Recent). We find that a subset of species can be identified as consistent winners, and others as consistent losers, in the sense that they win or lose interspecific competitive encounters statistically more often than the null hypothesis of 50%. Most species do not improve or worsen in their competitive abilities through the 2 Myr period, but a minority of species are winners in some intervals and losers in others. We found that conspecifics tend to cluster spatially and interact more often than expected under a null hypothesis: most of these are stand-off interactions where the two colonies involved stopped growing at edges of encounter. Counterintuitively, competitive ability has no bearing on ecological dominance. PMID:27581885

  18. Extinction reveals that primary sensory cortex predicts reinforcement outcome.

    PubMed

    Bieszczad, Kasia M; Weinberger, Norman M

    2012-02-01

    Primary sensory cortices are traditionally regarded as stimulus analysers. However, studies of associative learning-induced plasticity in the primary auditory cortex (A1) indicate involvement in learning, memory and other cognitive processes. For example, the area of representation of a tone becomes larger for stronger auditory memories and the magnitude of area gain is proportional to the degree that a tone becomes behaviorally important. Here, we used extinction to investigate whether 'behavioral importance' specifically reflects a sound's ability to predict reinforcement (reward or punishment) vs. to predict any significant change in the meaning of a sound. If the former, then extinction should reverse area gains as the signal no longer predicts reinforcement. Rats (n = 11) were trained to bar-press to a signal tone (5.0 kHz) for water-rewards, to induce signal-specific area gains in A1. After subsequent withdrawal of reward, A1 was mapped to determine representational areas. Signal-specific area gains, estimated from a previously established brain-behavior quantitative function, were reversed, supporting the 'reinforcement prediction' hypothesis. Area loss was specific to the signal tone vs. test tones, further indicating that withdrawal of reinforcement, rather than unreinforced tone presentation per se, was responsible for area loss. Importantly, the amount of area loss was correlated with the amount of extinction (r = 0.82, P < 0.01). These findings show that primary sensory cortical representation can encode behavioral importance as a signal's value to predict reinforcement, and that the number of cells tuned to a stimulus can dictate its ability to command behavior. PMID:22304434

  19. Extinction reveals that primary sensory cortex predicts reinforcement outcome.

    PubMed

    Bieszczad, Kasia M; Weinberger, Norman M

    2012-02-01

    Primary sensory cortices are traditionally regarded as stimulus analysers. However, studies of associative learning-induced plasticity in the primary auditory cortex (A1) indicate involvement in learning, memory and other cognitive processes. For example, the area of representation of a tone becomes larger for stronger auditory memories and the magnitude of area gain is proportional to the degree that a tone becomes behaviorally important. Here, we used extinction to investigate whether 'behavioral importance' specifically reflects a sound's ability to predict reinforcement (reward or punishment) vs. to predict any significant change in the meaning of a sound. If the former, then extinction should reverse area gains as the signal no longer predicts reinforcement. Rats (n = 11) were trained to bar-press to a signal tone (5.0 kHz) for water-rewards, to induce signal-specific area gains in A1. After subsequent withdrawal of reward, A1 was mapped to determine representational areas. Signal-specific area gains, estimated from a previously established brain-behavior quantitative function, were reversed, supporting the 'reinforcement prediction' hypothesis. Area loss was specific to the signal tone vs. test tones, further indicating that withdrawal of reinforcement, rather than unreinforced tone presentation per se, was responsible for area loss. Importantly, the amount of area loss was correlated with the amount of extinction (r = 0.82, P < 0.01). These findings show that primary sensory cortical representation can encode behavioral importance as a signal's value to predict reinforcement, and that the number of cells tuned to a stimulus can dictate its ability to command behavior.

  20. Factors predicting outcome after selective ERCP in the laparoscopic era.

    PubMed Central

    Robertson, G. S.; Johnson, P. R.; Rathbone, B. J.; Wicks, A. C.; Lloyd, D. M.; Veitch, P. S.

    1995-01-01

    This study assessed the outcome of 342 patients with in situ gallbladders undergoing ERCP for suspected choledocholithiasis. The result of ERCP was found to play a significant role (P < 0.0001) in determining whether patients were subsequently managed conservatively (n = 152) or underwent either laparoscopic (n = 110) or open (n = 80) surgery. Those undergoing laparoscopic surgery were noted to be younger (P = 0.0001) and were less likely to be jaundiced (P = 0.0015) or have CBD stones at ERCP (P = 0.0295). In 28 patients with CBD stones remaining after ERCP, pre- rather than postoperative timing of ERCP prevented a potential second operation. The current success rate of 85% in clearing CBD stones at ERCP cannot support a routine policy of intraoperative cholangiography followed by postoperative ERCP. PMID:8540663

  1. Hypoalbuminaemia predicts outcome in adult patients with congenital heart disease

    PubMed Central

    Kempny, Aleksander; Diller, Gerhard-Paul; Alonso-Gonzalez, Rafael; Uebing, Anselm; Rafiq, Isma; Li, Wei; Swan, Lorna; Hooper, James; Donovan, Jackie; Wort, Stephen J; Gatzoulis, Michael A; Dimopoulos, Konstantinos

    2015-01-01

    Background In patients with acquired heart failure, hypoalbuminaemia is associated with increased risk of death. The prevalence of hypoproteinaemia and hypoalbuminaemia and their relation to outcome in adult patients with congenital heart disease (ACHD) remains, however, unknown. Methods Data on patients with ACHD who underwent blood testing in our centre within the last 14 years were collected. The relation between laboratory, clinical or demographic parameters at baseline and mortality was assessed using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. Results A total of 2886 patients with ACHD were included. Mean age was 33.3 years (23.6–44.7) and 50.1% patients were men. Median plasma albumin concentration was 41.0 g/L (38.0–44.0), whereas hypoalbuminaemia (<35 g/L) was present in 13.9% of patients. The prevalence of hypoalbuminaemia was significantly higher in patients with great complexity ACHD (18.2%) compared with patients with moderate (11.3%) or simple ACHD lesions (12.1%, p<0.001). During a median follow-up of 5.7 years (3.3–9.6), 327 (11.3%) patients died. On univariable Cox regression analysis, hypoalbuminaemia was a strong predictor of outcome (HR 3.37, 95% CI 2.67 to 4.25, p<0.0001). On multivariable Cox regression, after adjusting for age, sodium and creatinine concentration, liver dysfunction, functional class and disease complexity, hypoalbuminaemia remained a significant predictor of death. Conclusions Hypoalbuminaemia is common in patients with ACHD and is associated with a threefold increased risk of risk of death. Hypoalbuminaemia, therefore, should be included in risk-stratification algorithms as it may assist management decisions and timing of interventions in the growing ACHD population. PMID:25736048

  2. Do Patient Characteristics Predict Outcome of Psychodynamic Psychotherapy for Social Anxiety Disorder?

    PubMed Central

    Wiltink, Jörg; Hoyer, Jürgen; Beutel, Manfred E.; Ruckes, Christian; Herpertz, Stephan; Joraschky, Peter; Koranyi, Susan; Michal, Matthias; Nolting, Björn; Pöhlmann, Karin; Salzer, Simone; Strauss, Bernhard

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Little is known about patient characteristics as predictors for outcome in manualized short term psychodynamic psychotherapy (PDT). No study has addressed which patient variables predict outcome of PDT for social anxiety disorder. Research Design and Methods In the largest multicenter trial on psychotherapy of social anxiety (SA) to date comparing cognitive therapy, PDT and wait list condition N = 230 patients were assigned to receive PDT, of which N = 166 completed treatment. Treatment outcome was assessed based on diverse parameters such as endstate functioning, remission, response, and drop-out. The relationship between patient characteristics (demographic variables, mental co-morbidity, personality, interpersonal problems) and outcome was analysed using logistic and linear regressions. Results Pre-treatment SA predicted up to 39 percent of variance of outcome. Only few additional baseline characteristics predicted better treatment outcome (namely, lower comorbidity and interpersonal problems) with a limited proportion of incremental variance (5.5 to 10 percent), while, e.g., shame, self-esteem or harm avoidance did not. Conclusions We argue that the central importance of pre-treatment symptom severity for predicting outcomes should advocate alternative treatment strategies (e.g. longer treatments, combination of psychotherapy and medication) in those who are most disturbed. Given the relatively small amount of variance explained by the other patient characteristics, process variables and patient-therapist interaction should additionally be taken into account in future research. Trial Registration Controlled-trials.com/ISRCTN53517394 PMID:26785255

  3. Role of Abnormal Sperm Morphology in Predicting Pregnancy Outcomes.

    PubMed

    Shabtaie, Samuel A; Gerkowicz, Sabrina A; Kohn, Taylor P; Ramasamy, Ranjith

    2016-09-01

    The evaluation of strict morphology for predicting successful pregnancy has been controversial, nevertheless remains an essential component of semen analysis. Patients with teratozoospermia (abnormal strict morphology) have traditionally been counseled to undergo assisted reproduction. However, recent studies suggest that patients with abnormal sperm morphology alone should not be precluded from attempting natural conception before undergoing assisted reproduction. The goal of this review is to provide an update on the evaluation of sperm morphology for prognosis in assisted reproductive techniques such as intrauterine insemination and in vitro fertilization with or without intracytoplasmic sperm injection. Additionally, we propose a logical approach to the evaluation of a patient with teratozoospermia seeking fertility treatment. PMID:27469478

  4. [Biliary atresias operated with favourable results: predictable outcome].

    PubMed

    Broto, J; Gil Vernet, J M; Ormaechea, M

    2005-01-01

    Since 1975, our experience in the treatment of biliary atresia with Kasai's technique has improved little by little, achieving 65% favourable outcome in the last five years. We define "good results" as the complete restoration of biliary flow and normalization of bilirrubin levels. The long-term evolution of these good results can be diverse. The objective of the present work is to analyze the outcome of patients in our series in whom a favourable initial response was achieved, as well as evaluating their present situation and future perspectives. The authors present a total of 17 patients operated by Kasai's technique since 1985, that constitutes the group with good results in our series. The controls were based on general analysis, liver function and periodic ultrasound explorations. All received a standardized medical treatment consisting of vitamin supplements (A, D3, E, K) minerals (zinc, calcium, phosphate, iron) ursodexoxicolic acid, luminal,as well as close control of calorie intake. In two patients the levels of bilirrubine were progressively increased with time, stabilizing at between 5/6 mgs/100 ml, with progressive hepatic hardening, appearance of splenomegalia, indirect signs of portal hypertension and a slight deterioration of hepatic function. One received a transplant at age 12 with Quick levels below 50%. The other, aged 16, continues with an acceptable hepatic function and good quality of life under recommendation of transplant. Eleven patients with ages ranging from fourteen months to seventeen years presented slight and firm hepatomegalia, moderate portal hypertension, GOT 71 +/- 8 mg/100 ml, GPT 97 +/- 11 mg/100 ml and normal bilirrubine levels. From this group, 3 patients, all under five years of age, experienced bleeding from esophageal varices which were controlled by sclerosis and medical treatment (propanolol and isosorbide dinitrate). Recently, one three year-old patient developed a hepatocarcinoma of rapid, mortal evolution. Since then

  5. Metabolomic profiling predicts outcome of rituximab therapy in rheumatoid arthritis

    PubMed Central

    Sweeney, Shannon R; Kavanaugh, Arthur; Lodi, Alessia; Wang, Bo; Boyle, David; Tiziani, Stefano; Guma, Monica

    2016-01-01

    Objective: To determine whether characterisation of patients' metabolic profiles, utilising nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) and mass spectrometry (MS), could predict response to rituximab therapy. 23 patients with active, seropositive rheumatoid arthritis (RA) on concomitant methotrexate were treated with rituximab. Patients were grouped into responders and non-responders according to the American College of Rheumatology improvement criteria, at a 20% level at 6 months. A Bruker Avance 700 MHz spectrometer and a Thermo Scientific Q Exactive Hybrid Quadrupole-Orbitrap mass spectrometer were used to acquire 1H-NMR and ultra high pressure liquid chromatography (UPLC)–MS/MS spectra, respectively, of serum samples before and after rituximab therapy. Data processing and statistical analysis were performed in MATLAB. 14 patients were characterised as responders, and 9 patients were considered non-responders. 7 polar metabolites (phenylalanine, 2-hydroxyvalerate, succinate, choline, glycine, acetoacetate and tyrosine) and 15 lipid species were different between responders and non-responders at baseline. Phosphatidylethanolamines, phosphatidyserines and phosphatidylglycerols were downregulated in responders. An opposite trend was observed in phosphatidylinositols. At 6 months, 5 polar metabolites (succinate, taurine, lactate, pyruvate and aspartate) and 37 lipids were different between groups. The relationship between serum metabolic profiles and clinical response to rituximab suggests that 1H-NMR and UPLC–MS/MS may be promising tools for predicting response to rituximab. PMID:27651926

  6. The Role of Teachers' Support in Predicting Students' Motivation and Achievement Outcomes in Physical Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zhang, Tao; Solmon, Melinda A.; Gu, Xiangli

    2012-01-01

    Examining how teachers' beliefs and behaviors predict students' motivation and achievement outcomes in physical education is an area of increasing research interest. Guided by the expectancy-value model and self-determination theory, the major purpose of this study was to examine the predictive strength of teachers' autonomy, competence, and…

  7. Utility of the MMPI Pain Assessment Index in Predicting Outcome After Lumbar Surgery.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Turner, Judith; And Others

    1986-01-01

    Examined the ability of the Pain Assesment Index, determined from presurgery Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory scores, to predict outcome subsequent to lumbar laminectomy and discectomy. The PAI was found to have good ability to identify patients who were doing well after surgery, but low power in predicting which patients would have…

  8. Early Seizure Frequency and Aetiology Predict Long-Term Medical Outcome in Childhood-Onset Epilepsy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sillanpaa, Matti; Schmidt, Dieter

    2009-01-01

    In clinical practice, it is important to predict as soon as possible after diagnosis and starting treatment, which children are destined to develop medically intractable seizures and be at risk of increased mortality. In this study, we determined factors predictive of long-term seizure and mortality outcome in a population-based cohort of 102…

  9. Prediction of outcome utilizing both physiological and biochemical parameters in severe head injury.

    PubMed

    Low, David; Kuralmani, Vellaisamy; Ng, See Kiong; Lee, Kah Keow; Ng, Ivan; Ang, Beng Ti

    2009-08-01

    Traumatic brain injury is a major socioeconomic burden, and the use of statistical models to predict outcomes after head injury can help to allocate limited health resources. Earlier prediction models analyzing admission data have been used to achieve prediction accuracies of up to 80%. Our aim was to design statistical models utilizing a combination of both physiological and biochemical variables obtained from multimodal monitoring in the neurocritical care setting as a complement to earlier models. We used decision tree and logistic regression analysis on variables including intracranial pressure (ICP), mean arterial pressure (MAP), cerebral perfusion pressure (CPP), and pressure reactivity index (PRx), as well as multimodal monitoring parameters to assess brain tissue oxygenation (PbtO(2)), and microdialysis parameters to predict outcomes based on a dichotomized Glasgow Outcome Score. Further analysis was carried out on various subgroup combinations of physiological and biochemical parameters. The reliability of the head injury models was assessed using a 10-fold cross-validation technique. In addition, the confusion matrix was also used to assess the sensitivity, specificity, and the F-ratio. In all, 2,413 time series records were extracted from 26 patients treated at our neurocritical care unit over a 1-year period. Decision tree analysis was found to be superior to logistic regression analysis in predictive accuracy of outcome. The combined use of microdialysis variables and PbtO(2), in addition to ICP, MAP, and CPP was found have the best predictive accuracy. The use of physiological and biochemical variables based on a decision tree analysis model has shown to provide an improvement in predictive accuracy compared with other previous models. The potential application is for outcome prediction in the multivariate setting of advanced multimodality monitoring, and validates the use of multimodal monitoring in the neurocritical care setting to have a potential

  10. Early amplitude-integrated electroencephalography predicts brain injury and neurological outcome in very preterm infants

    PubMed Central

    Song, Juan; Xu, Falin; Wang, Laishuan; Gao, Liang; Guo, Jiajia; Xia, Lei; Zhang, Yanhua; Zhou, Wenhao; Wang, Xiaoyang; Zhu, Changlian

    2015-01-01

    Early amplitude-integrated electroencephalography (aEEG) has been widely used in term infants with brain injury to predict neurodevelopmental outcomes; however, the prognostic value of early aEEG in preterm infants is unclear. We evaluated how well early aEEG could predict brain damage and long-term neurodevelopmental outcomes in very preterm infants compared with brain imaging assessments. We found that severe aEEG abnormalities (p = 0.000) and aEEG total score < 5 (p = 0.006) within 72 h after birth were positively correlated with white-matter damage, but aEEG abnormalities were not associated with intracranial hemorrhage (p = 0.186). Severe abnormalities in aEEG recordings, head ultrasound, and cranial magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) were all positively correlated with poor outcome at 18 months corrected age. The predictive power of poor outcomes of the aEEG and MRI combination was the same as the aEEG, MRI, and head ultrasound combination with a sensitivity of 52.4%, specificity of 96.2%, positive predictive value of 78.6%, and negative predictive value of 88.4%. These results indicate that severely abnormal aEEG recordings within 72 h after birth can predict white-matter damage and long-term poor outcomes in very preterm infants. Thus aEEG can be used as an early marker to monitor very preterm infants. PMID:26348553

  11. Early amplitude-integrated electroencephalography predicts brain injury and neurological outcome in very preterm infants.

    PubMed

    Song, Juan; Xu, Falin; Wang, Laishuan; Gao, Liang; Guo, Jiajia; Xia, Lei; Zhang, Yanhua; Zhou, Wenhao; Wang, Xiaoyang; Zhu, Changlian

    2015-09-08

    Early amplitude-integrated electroencephalography (aEEG) has been widely used in term infants with brain injury to predict neurodevelopmental outcomes; however, the prognostic value of early aEEG in preterm infants is unclear. We evaluated how well early aEEG could predict brain damage and long-term neurodevelopmental outcomes in very preterm infants compared with brain imaging assessments. We found that severe aEEG abnormalities (p=0.000) and aEEG total score<5 (p=0.006) within 72 h after birth were positively correlated with white-matter damage, but aEEG abnormalities were not associated with intracranial hemorrhage (p=0.186). Severe abnormalities in aEEG recordings, head ultrasound, and cranial magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) were all positively correlated with poor outcome at 18 months corrected age. The predictive power of poor outcomes of the aEEG and MRI combination was the same as the aEEG, MRI, and head ultrasound combination with a sensitivity of 52.4%, specificity of 96.2%, positive predictive value of 78.6%, and negative predictive value of 88.4%. These results indicate that severely abnormal aEEG recordings within 72 h after birth can predict white-matter damage and long-term poor outcomes in very preterm infants. Thus aEEG can be used as an early marker to monitor very preterm infants.

  12. A nomogram that predicts pathologic complete response to neoadjuvant chemoradiation also predicts survival outcomes after definitive chemoradiation for esophageal cancer

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Jingya; Allen, Pamela K.; Correa, Arlene M.; Maru, Dipen M.; Swisher, Stephen G.; Hofstetter, Wayne L.; Liao, Zhongxing; Ajani, Jaffer A.

    2015-01-01

    Background Pathologic complete response (pCR) to neoadjuvant chemoradiation for esophageal cancer is associated with improved outcomes. We evaluated whether a nomogram designed to predict who would have a pCR after trimodality therapy could also predict outcome after definitive chemoradiation. Methods Patients in this retrospective, single-institution analysis had received chemoradiation without surgery for esophageal cancer from 1998 through 2010; 333 such patients had complete information on all variables required for the pCR nomogram: sex; T status (by endoscopic sonography); tumor grade; tumor avidity on positron emission tomography (PET); and esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD)-directed biopsy results after chemoradiation. We used multivariate Cox regression to test potential associations between clinical outcomes [overall survival (OS), locoregional recurrence, and distant metastasis] and patient or treatment factors and the pCR nomogram score; the component variables of the nomogram were not reintroduced into the multivariate analysis. Results The median follow-up time for all patients (median age 66 years) was 18.2 months (30.7 months for those alive at the time of analysis). Patients with nomogram scores ≤125 (median for all patients) had significantly worse outcomes than patients with scores >125: median OS time 19.7 vs. 48.2 months; disease-free survival (DFS) time 6.1 vs. 31.1 months; locoregional failure-free survival time 17.7 months vs. not reached; and distant metastasis-free survival time 11.7 months vs. not reached (all P<0.001). Multivariate Cox regression analysis indicated that nomogram score independently predicted each survival outcome, along with other patient and disease factors. Conclusions The pCR nomogram score predicted survival outcomes in patients receiving definitive chemoradiation for esophageal cancer. Although this nomogram requires further validation, it may prove useful for stratifying patients for clinical trials designed to

  13. Prediction of Cochlear Implant Outcomes in Patients With Prelingual Deafness

    PubMed Central

    Kang, Dong Hoon; Lee, Myoung Jin; Lee, Kyu-Yup; Lee, Sang Heun; Jang, Jeong Hun

    2016-01-01

    Objectives. To evaluate the factors that limit post-cochlear implantation (CI) speech perception in prelingually deaf children. Methods. Patients with CI were divided into two groups according to Category of Auditory Performance (CAP) scores 3 years post-CI: the poor performance group (poor performance group, CAP scores≤4, n=41) and the good performance group (good performance group, CAP scores≥5, n=85). The distribution and contribution of the potential limiting factors related to post-CI speech perception was compared. Results. Perinatal problems, inner ear anomalies, narrow bony cochlear nerve canal (BCNC), and intraoperative problems was significantly higher in the poor performance group than the good performance group (P=0.010, P=0.003, P=0.001, and P=0.045, respectively). The mean number of limiting factors was significantly higher in the poor performance group (1.98±1.04) than the good performance group (1.25±1.11, P=0.001). The odds ratios for perinatal problems and narrow bony cochlear nerve canal in the poor performance group in comparison with the good performance group were 4.878 (95% confidence interval, 0.067 to 0.625; P=0.005) and 4.785 (95% confidence interval, 0.045 to 0.972; P=0.046). Conclusion. This study highlights the comprehensive prediction of speech perception after CI and provides otologic surgeons with useful information for individualized preoperative counseling of CI candidates. PMID:27337951

  14. Psychological and physiological factors predicting the outcome on home hemodialysis.

    PubMed

    Richmond, J M; Lindsay, R M; Burton, H J; Conley, J; Wai, L

    1982-03-01

    As part of a study of "Adaptation to home dialysis" we have examined psychological, physiological, and social factors influencing the success of 136 patients on home hemodialysis, followed for greater than 18 months. The study has demonstrated specific physical, psychological, and stress factors associated with increased probability of failure on home hemodialysis. In those under 45 years of age, the profile of failure is of higher diastolic blood pressure in training, more frequent episodes of congestive heart failure, higher levels of stress associated with varying health and loss of sleep and greater anxiety and depression. In the older age group failure was associated with higher levels of depression and self depreciation, and higher levels of stress associated with fear of death, pain during dialysis and blood clotting. On the other hand, higher denial levels were positively correlated with success. There were no significant differences between profiles of those patients who succeeded and those who died. Although analysis is based on a retrospective study, the time sequence between data collection and end points suggests that patient profiling can be used in a predictive manner. The study emphasizes the importance of psychological and social factor analysis in the overall management of the patient with renal failure. PMID:7067172

  15. Optimized Prediction of Extreme Treatment Outcomes in Ovarian Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Misganaw, Burook; Ahsen, Eren; Singh, Nitin; Baggerly, Keith A.; Unruh, Anna; White, Michael A.; Vidyasagar, M.

    2015-01-01

    Ovarian cancer is the fifth leading cause of death among female cancers. Front-line therapy for ovarian cancer is platinum-based chemotherapy. However, the response of patients is highly nonuniform. The TCGA database of serous ovarian carcinomas shows that ~10% of patients respond poorly to platinum-based chemotherapy, with tumors relapsing in seven months or less. Another 10% or so enjoy disease-free survival of three years or more. The objective of the present research is to identify a small number of highly predictive biomarkers that can distinguish between the two extreme responders and then extrapolate to all patients. This is achieved using the lone star algorithm that is specifically developed for biological applications. Using this algorithm, we are able to identify biomarker panels of 25 genes (of 12,000 genes) that can be used to classify patients into one of the three groups: super responders, medium responders, and nonresponders. We are also able to determine a discriminant function that can divide the entire patient population into two classes, such that one group has a clear survival advantage over the other. These biomarkers are developed using the TCGA Agilent platform data and cross-validated on the TCGA Affymetrix platform data, as well as entirely independent data from Tothill et al. The P-values on the training data are extremely small, sometimes below machine zero, while the P-values on cross-validation are well below the widely accepted threshold of 0.05. PMID:27034613

  16. Early clinical prediction of neurological outcome following out of hospital cardiac arrest managed with therapeutic hypothermia

    PubMed Central

    Ruknuddeen, Mohammed Ishaq; Ramadoss, Rajaram; Rajajee, V.; Grzeskowiak, Luke E.; Rajagopalan, Ram E.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Therapeutic hypothermia (TH) may improve neurological outcome in comatose patients following out of hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA). The reliability of clinical prediction of neurological outcome following TH remains unclear. In particular, there is very limited data on survival and predictors of neurological outcome following TH for OHCA from resource-constrained settings in general and South Asia in specific. Objective: The objective was to identify factors predicting unfavorable neurological outcome at hospital discharge in comatose survivors of OHCA treated with hypothermia. Design: Retrospective chart review. Setting: Urban 200-bed hospital in Chennai, India. Methods: Predictors of unfavorable neurological outcome (cerebral performance category score [3–5]) at hospital discharge were evaluated among patients admitted between January 2006 and December 2012 following OHCA treated with TH. Hypothermia was induced with cold intravenous saline bolus, ice packs and cold-water spray with bedside fan. Predictors of unfavorable neurological outcome were examined through multivariate exact logistic regression analysis. Results: A total of 121 patients were included with 106/121 (87%) experiencing the unfavorable neurological outcome. Independent predictors of unfavorable neurological outcome included: Status myoclonus <24 h (odds ratio [OR] 21.79, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.89-Infinite), absent brainstem reflexes (OR 50.09, 6.55-Infinite), and motor response worse than flexion on day 3 (OR 99.41, 12.21-Infinite). All 3 variables had 100% specificity and positive predictive value. Conclusion: Status myoclonus within 24 h, absence of brainstem reflexes and motor response worse than flexion on day 3 reliably predict unfavorable neurological outcome in comatose patients with OHCA treated with TH. PMID:26195855

  17. Percutaneous Ablation in the Kidney

    PubMed Central

    Wood, Bradford J.; Gervais, Debra A.

    2011-01-01

    Percutaneous ablation in the kidney is now performed as a standard therapeutic nephron-sparing option in patients who are poor candidates for resection. Its increasing use has been largely prompted by the rising incidental detection of renal cell carcinomas with cross-sectional imaging and the need to preserve renal function in patients with comorbid conditions, multiple renal cell carcinomas, and/or heritable renal cancer syndromes. Clinical studies to date indicate that radiofrequency ablation and cryoablation are effective therapies with acceptable short- to intermediate-term outcomes and with a low risk in the appropriate setting, with attention to pre-, peri-, and postprocedural detail. The results following percutaneous radiofrequency ablation and cryoablation in the treatment of renal cell carcinoma are reviewed in this article, including those of several larger scale studies of ablation of T1a tumors. Clinical and technical considerations unique to ablation in the kidney are presented, and potential complications are discussed. © RSNA, 2011 PMID:22012904

  18. Weight maintenance from young adult weight predicts better health outcomes

    PubMed Central

    Votruba, Susanne B; Thearle, Marie S; Piaggi, Paolo; Knowler, William C; Hanson, Robert L; Krakoff, Jonathan

    2014-01-01

    Objective Defining groups of individuals within a larger population with similar patterns of weight change over time may provide insight into influences of weight stability or gain. Methods Latent class growth modeling was used to define subgroups of weight change in adult members of the Gila River Indian Community participating in at least 4 non-diabetic health exams including OGTTs (N=1157, 762F/395M; 78.4±19.0 kg). In a separate study, 152 individuals had 24-hr EE measured in a respiratory chamber. Results Eight groups with baseline weights of 54.6±7.3 (n=124), 64.2±7.7 (n=267), 73.6±7.8 (n=298), 86.1±10.2 (n=194), 95.5±6.7 (n=90), 97.9±10.4 (n=92), 110.9±11.9 (n=61), and 122.1±13.6 (n=31) kg (P<0.001) were delineated. Group 5, (initial weight=95.5±6.7 kg) maintained a comparatively stable weight over time (+3.3±10.3 kg, +3.8±11.2% of initial weight; median follow-up time: 13.1 years). All other groups gained weight over time (+29.9±21.1% of initial weight; median follow-up time: 16.3 years). Higher starting weight defined weight gain in most groups, but higher 2hr glucose predicted membership in the lower weight trajectories. The weight stable group had higher rates of impaired glucose regulation at baseline and higher 24-hr EE. Conclusions Weight in young adulthood defined weight gain trajectory underscoring the importance of intervening early to prevent weight gain. PMID:25131650

  19. Predicting MCI outcome with clinically available MRI and CSF biomarkers

    PubMed Central

    Heister, D.; Brewer, J.B.; Magda, S.; Blennow, K.

    2011-01-01

    Objective: To determine the ability of clinically available volumetric MRI (vMRI) and CSF biomarkers, alone or in combination with a quantitative learning measure, to predict conversion to Alzheimer disease (AD) in patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Methods: We stratified 192 MCI participants into positive and negative risk groups on the basis of 1) degree of learning impairment on the Rey Auditory Verbal Learning Test; 2) medial temporal atrophy, quantified from Food and Drug Administration–approved software for automated vMRI analysis; and 3) CSF biomarker levels. We also stratified participants based on combinations of risk factors. We computed Cox proportional hazards models, controlling for age, to assess 3-year risk of converting to AD as a function of risk group and used Kaplan-Meier analyses to determine median survival times. Results: When risk factors were examined separately, individuals testing positive showed significantly higher risk of converting to AD than individuals testing negative (hazard ratios [HR] 1.8–4.1). The joint presence of any 2 risk factors substantially increased risk, with the combination of greater learning impairment and increased atrophy associated with highest risk (HR 29.0): 85% of patients with both risk factors converted to AD within 3 years, vs 5% of those with neither. The presence of medial temporal atrophy was associated with shortest median dementia-free survival (15 months). Conclusions: Incorporating quantitative assessment of learning ability along with vMRI or CSF biomarkers in the clinical workup of MCI can provide critical information on risk of imminent conversion to AD. PMID:21998317

  20. The Use of Covariates and Random Effects in Evaluating Predictive Biomarkers Under a Potential Outcome Framework

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Zhiwei; Nie, Lei; Soon, Guoxing; Liu, Aiyi

    2016-01-01

    Predictive or treatment selection biomarkers are usually evaluated in a subgroup or regression analysis with focus on the treatment-by-marker interaction. Under a potential outcome framework (Huang, Gilbert and Janes [Biometrics 68 (2012) 687–696]), a predictive biomarker is considered a predictor for a desirable treatment benefit (defined by comparing potential outcomes for different treatments) and evaluated using familiar concepts in prediction and classification. However, the desired treatment benefit is un-observable because each patient can receive only one treatment in a typical study. Huang et al. overcome this problem by assuming monotonicity of potential outcomes, with one treatment dominating the other in all patients. Motivated by an HIV example that appears to violate the monotonicity assumption, we propose a different approach based on covariates and random effects for evaluating predictive biomarkers under the potential outcome framework. Under the proposed approach, the parameters of interest can be identified by assuming conditional independence of potential outcomes given observed covariates, and a sensitivity analysis can be performed by incorporating an unobserved random effect that accounts for any residual dependence. Application of this approach to the motivating example shows that baseline viral load and CD4 cell count are both useful as predictive biomarkers for choosing antiretroviral drugs for treatment-naive patients. PMID:26779295

  1. Intention to treat outcome of T1 hepatocellular carcinoma with the "wait and not ablate" approach until meeting T2 criteria for liver transplant listing.

    PubMed

    Mehta, Neil; Sarkar, Monika; Dodge, Jennifer L; Fidelman, Nicholas; Roberts, John P; Yao, Francis Y

    2016-02-01

    Patients with T1 hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC; 1 lesion < 2 cm) are currently not eligible for priority listing for liver transplantation (LT). A common practice is to wait without locoregional therapy (LRT) until tumor growth occurs from T1 to T2 (1 lesion 2-5 cm or 2-3 lesions ≤ 3 cm) to be eligible for listing with Model for End-Stage Liver Disease exception. We aimed to evaluate the intention to treat outcome of the "wait and not ablate" approach for nonresection candidates with T1 HCC until tumor growth to T2. The study included 114 patients with T1 HCC 1.0-1.9 cm followed by serial imaging every 3 months. Two investigators performed independent imaging reviews to confirm the diagnosis. Median increase in total tumor diameter was 0.14 cm/month. Probabilities of progression from T1 to directly beyond T2 without LT listing were 4.4% at 6 months and 9.0% at both 12 and 24 months. The 1- and 3-year survival was 94.5% and 75.5%. In multivariate analysis, predictors of rapid tumor progression, defined as a > 1 cm increase in total tumor diameter over 3 months, included alcoholic liver disease (odds ratio [OR], 6.52; P = 0.02) and Hispanic race (OR, 3.86; P = 0.047), whereas hepatitis B appeared to be protective (OR, 0.09; P = 0.04). By competing risks regression, predictors of exclusion from LT (with or without listing for LT under T2) were alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) ≥ 500 ng/mL (HR, 12.69; 95% confidence interval, 2.8-57.0; P = 0.001) and rapid tumor progression (HR, 5.68; P < 0.001). In conclusion, the "wait and not ablate" approach until tumor growth from T1 to T2 before LT listing is associated with a <10% risk of tumor progression to directly beyond T2 criteria. However, patients with AFP ≥ 500 ng/mL and rapid tumor progression are at high risk for wait-list dropout and should receive early LRT. PMID:26479422

  2. Prediction of concurrent chemoradiotherapy outcome in advanced oropharyngeal cancer

    PubMed Central

    HASEGAWA, MASAHIRO; MAEDA, HIROYUKI; DENG, ZEYI; KIYUNA, ASANORI; GANAHA, AKIRA; YAMASHITA, YUKASHI; MATAYOSHI, SEN; AGENA, SHINYA; TOITA, TAKAFUMI; UEHARA, TAKAYUKI; SUZUKI, MIKIO

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate human papillomavirus (HPV) infection as a predictor of concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) response and indicator of planned neck dissection (PND) for patients with advanced oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC; stage III/IV). Overall, 39 OPSCC patients (32 men, 7 women; median age 61 years, range 39–79 years) were enrolled. The primary lesion and whole neck were irradiated up to 50.4 Gy, and subsequently the primary site and metastatic lymph nodes were boosted with a further 16.2 Gy. Although several chemotherapy regimens were employed, 82.1% of OPSCC patients received the combination of nedaplatin and 5-fluorouracil. HPV-related OPSCC (16 cases) was defined as both HPV DNA-positive status by polymerase chain reaction and p16INK4a overexpression by immunohistochemistry. Patients with N2 and N3 disease received PND 2–3 months after CCRT completion. Compared to non-responders, CCRT responders showed significantly lower nodal stage (N0 to N2b) and HPV-positive status in univariate analysis. Patients with HPV-related OPSCC had longer time to treatment failure (TTF) than those with HPV-unrelated OPSCC (p=0.040). Three-year TTF was 81.3 and 47.8% in the HPV-related and HPV-unrelated groups, respectively. There were also significant differences in disease-free survival (DFS) between the two OPSCC patient groups (p=0.042). Three-year DFS was 93.8 and 66.7% in patients with HPV-related and HPV-unrelated OPSCC, respectively. Multivariate logistic analysis showed a lower risk of TTF event occurrence in HPV-related OPSCC (p=0.041) than in HPV-unrelated OPSCC. Thus, HPV testing in addition to nodal stage was useful for predicting CCRT response, especially in advanced OPSCC. Because patients who received PND showed moderate locoregional control, PND is an effective surgical procedure for controlling neck lesions in patients with advanced HPV-unrelated disease. PMID:24969413

  3. Predictive Modeling for End-of-Life Pain Outcome using Electronic Health Records

    PubMed Central

    Lodhi, Muhammad K.; Stifter, Janet; Yao, Yingwei; Ansari, Rashid; Kee-nan, Gail M.; Wilkie, Diana J.; Khokhar, Ashfaq A.

    2016-01-01

    Electronic health record (EHR) systems are being widely used in the healthcare industry nowadays, mostly for monitoring the progress of the patients. EHR data analysis has become a big data problem as data is growing rapidly. Using a nursing EHR system, we built predictive models for determining what factors influence pain in end-of-life (EOL) patients. Utilizing different modeling techniques, we developed coarse-grained and fine-grained models to predict patient pain outcomes. The coarse-grained models help predict the outcome at the end of each hospitalization, whereas fine-grained models help predict the outcome at the end of each shift, thus providing a trajectory of predicted outcomes over the entire hospitalization. These models can help in determining effective treatments for individuals and groups of patients and support standardization of care where appropriate. Using these models may also lower the cost and increase the quality of end-of-life care. Results from these techniques show significantly accurate predictions. PMID:27500287

  4. Do preoperative fear avoidance model factors predict outcomes after lumbar disc herniation surgery? A systematic review

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Lumbar disc herniation (LDH) surgery is usually recommended when conservative treatments fail to manage patients’ symptoms. However, many patients undergoing LDH surgery continue to report pain and disability. Preoperative psychological factors have shown to be predictive for postoperative outcomes. Our aim was to systematically review studies that prospectively examined the prognostic value of factors in the Fear Avoidance Model (FAM), including back pain, leg pain, catastrophizing, anxiety, fear-avoidance, depression, physical activity and disability, to predict postoperative outcomes in patients undergoing LDH surgery. Methods We performed a systematic literature review of prospective studies that measured any FAM factors preoperatively to predict postoperative outcomes for patients undergoing LDH surgery. Our search databases included PubMed, CINAHL, and PsycINFO. We assessed the quality of each included study using a certain quality assessment list. Degree of agreement between reviewers on quality assessment was examined. Results related to FAM factors in the included studies were summarized. Results Thirteen prospective studies met our inclusion criteria. Most studies were considered high quality. Heterogeneity was present between the included studies in many aspects. The most common FAM factors examinered were baseline pain, disability and depression. In, general, depression, fear-avoidance behaviors, passive pain coping, and anxiety FAM factors appeared to have negative influence on LDH surgical outcome. Baseline back pain and leg pain appeared to have differing prognostic value on LDH surgical outcomes. Conclusions FAM factors seem to influence LDH surgical outcomes. Patients with high levels of depression, anxiety and fear-avoidance behaviors are more likely to have poor outcomes following LDH surgery. Conversely, high levels of leg pain, but not back pain seem to be predictor for favorable LDH surgery outcome. More research is needed to

  5. Examining Change in Therapeutic Alliance to Predict Youth Mental Health Outcomes

    PubMed Central

    Duppong Hurley, Kristin; Van Ryzin, Mark J.; Lambert, Matthew; Stevens, Amy L.

    2014-01-01

    Objective To examine the link between therapeutic alliance and youth outcomes. Method The study was conducted at a group-home with 112 youth with a disruptive-behavior diagnosis. Therapeutic alliance was collected routinely via youth and staff report. Outcome data were collected using youth and staff reports of externalizing behavior as well as behavioral incidents occurring during care. Outcome data were collected following intake into services and at 6 and 12 months of care. Data were analyzed to examine (1) if youth behavior problems at intake were predictive of therapeutic alliance and (2) if changes in alliance were predictive of subsequent youth outcomes. These were conducted with a 6-month service-delivery model and replicated with a 12-month model. Results There was some support for the first hypothesis, that initial levels of youth externalizing behavior would be related to alliance ratings; however, most of the effects were marginally significant. The second hypothesis, that changes in therapeutic alliance would be related to subsequent youth outcomes, was supported for the 6-month model, but not the 12-month model. Conclusions Changes in therapeutic alliance may be predictive of youth outcomes during care. Additional research into examining therapeutic alliance trajectories is warranted to improve mental health services for youth. PMID:25960629

  6. Hemizona Assay and Sperm Penetration Assay in the Prediction of IVF Outcome: A Systematic Review

    PubMed Central

    Chrelias, Charalampos; Cahill, David J.; Creatsa, Maria; Vrachnis, Nikos; Iliodromiti, Zoe; Kassanos, Demetrios; Siristatidis, Charalampos

    2013-01-01

    The limited predictive value of semen analysis in achieving natural conception or in IVF outcome confirms the need for sperm function tests to determine optimal management. We reviewed HZA and SPA predictive power in IVF outcome, with statistical significance of diagnostic power of the assays. HZA was readily efficient in predicting IVF outcome, while evident inconsistency among the studies analysed framed the SPA's role in male fertility evaluation. Considerable variation was noted in the diagnostic accuracy values of SPA with wide sensitivity (52–100%), specificity (0–100%), and PPV (18–100%) and NPV (0–100%) together with fluctuation and notable differentiation in methodology and cutoff values employed by each group. HZA methodology was overall consistent with minor variation in cutoff values and oocyte source, while data analysis reported strong correlation between HZA results with IVF outcome, high sensitivity (75–100%), good specificity (57–100%), and high PPV (79–100%) and NPV (68–100%). HZA correlated well with IVF outcome and demonstrated better sensitivity/specificity and positive/negative predictive power. Males with normal or slightly abnormal semen profiles could benefit by this intervention and could be evaluated prior to referral to assisted reproduction. HZA should be used in a sequential fashion with semen analysis and potentially other bioassays in an IVF setting. PMID:24228261

  7. Clinical Neurochemistry of Subarachnoid Hemorrhage: Toward Predicting Individual Outcomes via Biomarkers of Brain Energy Metabolism.

    PubMed

    Tholance, Yannick; Barcelos, Gleicy; Dailler, Frederic; Perret-Liaudet, Armand; Renaud, Bernard

    2015-12-16

    The functional outcome of patients with subarachnoid hemorrhage is difficult to predict at the individual level. The monitoring of brain energy metabolism has proven to be useful in improving the pathophysiological understanding of subarachnoid hemorrhage. Nonetheless, brain energy monitoring has not yet clearly been included in official guidelines for the management of subarachnoid hemorrhage patients, likely because previous studies compared only biological data between two groups of patients (unfavorable vs favorable outcomes) and did not determine decision thresholds that could be useful in clinical practice. Therefore, this Viewpoint discusses recent findings suggesting that monitoring biomarkers of brain energy metabolism at the level of individuals can be used to predict the outcomes of subarachnoid hemorrhage patients. Indeed, by taking into account specific neurochemical patterns obtained by local or global monitoring of brain energy metabolism, it may become possible to predict routinely, and with sufficient sensitivity and specificity, the individual outcomes of subarachnoid hemorrhage patients. Moreover, combining both local and global monitoring improves the overall performance of individual outcome prediction. Such a combined neurochemical monitoring approach may become, after prospective clinical validation, an important component in the management of subarachnoid hemorrhage patients to adapt individualized therapeutic interventions. PMID:26595414

  8. Do Physical Symptoms Predict the Outcome of Surgical Fusion in Patients with Discogenic Low Back Pain?

    PubMed Central

    Orita, Sumihisa; Yamauchi, Kazuyo; Eguchi, Yawara; Aoki, Yasuchika; Nakamura, Junichi; Miyagi, Masayuki; Suzuki, Miyako; Kubota, Gou; Inage, Kazuhide; Sainoh, Takeshi; Sato, Jun; Shiga, Yasuhiro; Abe, Koki; Fujimoto, Kazuki; Kanamoto, Hiroto; Inoue, Gen; Takahashi, Kazuhisa

    2016-01-01

    Study Design Retrospective case series. Purpose To determine whether symptoms predict surgical outcomes for patients with discogenic low back pain (DLBP). Overview of Literature Specific diagnosis of DLBP remains difficult. Worsening of pain on flexion is a reported symptom of DLBP. This study sought to determine whether symptoms predict surgical outcomes for patients with DLBP. Methods We investigated 127 patients with low back pain (LBP) and no dominant radicular pain. Magnetic resonance imaging was used to select patients with disc degeneration at only one level. If pain was provoked during discography, we performed fusion surgery (87 patients). Visual analogue scale score and responses to a questionnaire regarding symptoms including worsening of pain on flexion or extension were assessed. Symptom sites before surgery were categorized into LBP alone, or LBP plus referred inguinal or leg pain. We followed 77 patients (average 3.0 years) and compared symptoms before surgery with surgical outcome. Results Sixty-three patients with a good outcome showed postsurgical pain relief (≥60% pain relief) and 14 patients with a poor outcome did not (<60% pain relief). In patients with good outcomes, worsening of LBP was evident in 65% of cases on flexion and in 35% on extension. However, these findings were not significantly different from those in patients with poor outcomes. The percentage of patients with LBP alone was significantly lower and the percentage of patients with LBP plus referred inguinal or leg pain was significantly higher in the group with good surgical outcome compared with patients in the group with poor surgical outcome (p<0.05). Conclusions Worsening of pain on extension may be a symptom of DLBP. Surgical outcomes were superior in patients with both LBP and either referred inguinal or leg pain compared with those having LBP alone. PMID:27340531

  9. Ablative Approaches for Pulmonary Metastases.

    PubMed

    Boyer, Matthew J; Ricardi, Umberto; Ball, David; Salama, Joseph K

    2016-02-01

    Pulmonary metastases are common in patients with cancer for which surgery is considered a standard approach in appropriately selected patients. A number of patients are not candidates for surgery due to a medical comorbidities or the extent of surgery required. For these patients, noninvasive or minimally invasive approaches to ablate pulmonary metastases are potential treatment strategies. This article summarizes the rationale and outcomes for non-surgical treatment approaches, including radiotherapy, radiofrequency and microwave ablation, for pulmonary metastases.

  10. Development and numerical solution of a mechanistic model for corneal tissue ablation with the 193 nm argon fluoride excimer laser

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fisher, Brian T.; Hahn, David W.

    2007-02-01

    We detail the development and implementation of a global ablation model that incorporates a dynamically changing tissue absorption coefficient. Detailed spectroscopic measurements rule out plasma-shielding effects during the laser-tissue interaction and thereby support a photochemical mechanism. The model predicts ablation rate behavior that agrees well with a variety of experimental ablation rate data and that substantially deviates from a static Beer-Lambert model. The dynamic model predicts an enhancement in the tissue absorption coefficient of about 25%-50% as compared with the initial, static value. In addition, the model predicts an increase in the tissue ablation rate as corneal hydration increases, which may provide additional insight into variations in refractive surgery outcome.

  11. Theoretical Modeling for Hepatic Microwave Ablation

    PubMed Central

    Prakash, Punit

    2010-01-01

    Thermal tissue ablation is an interventional procedure increasingly being used for treatment of diverse medical conditions. Microwave ablation is emerging as an attractive modality for thermal therapy of large soft tissue targets in short periods of time, making it particularly suitable for ablation of hepatic and other tumors. Theoretical models of the ablation process are a powerful tool for predicting the temperature profile in tissue and resultant tissue damage created by ablation devices. These models play an important role in the design and optimization of devices for microwave tissue ablation. Furthermore, they are a useful tool for exploring and planning treatment delivery strategies. This review describes the status of theoretical models developed for microwave tissue ablation. It also reviews current challenges, research trends and progress towards development of accurate models for high temperature microwave tissue ablation. PMID:20309393

  12. A Prediction Model for Functional Outcomes in Spinal Cord Disorder Patients Using Gaussian Process Regression.

    PubMed

    Lee, Sunghoon Ivan; Mortazavi, Bobak; Hoffman, Haydn A; Lu, Derek S; Li, Charles; Paak, Brian H; Garst, Jordan H; Razaghy, Mehrdad; Espinal, Marie; Park, Eunjeong; Lu, Daniel C; Sarrafzadeh, Majid

    2016-01-01

    Predicting the functional outcomes of spinal cord disorder patients after medical treatments, such as a surgical operation, has always been of great interest. Accurate posttreatment prediction is especially beneficial for clinicians, patients, care givers, and therapists. This paper introduces a prediction method for postoperative functional outcomes by a novel use of Gaussian process regression. The proposed method specifically considers the restricted value range of the target variables by modeling the Gaussian process based on a truncated Normal distribution, which significantly improves the prediction results. The prediction has been made in assistance with target tracking examinations using a highly portable and inexpensive handgrip device, which greatly contributes to the prediction performance. The proposed method has been validated through a dataset collected from a clinical cohort pilot involving 15 patients with cervical spinal cord disorder. The results show that the proposed method can accurately predict postoperative functional outcomes, Oswestry disability index and target tracking scores, based on the patient's preoperative information with a mean absolute error of 0.079 and 0.014 (out of 1.0), respectively. PMID:25423659

  13. Why Is It Difficult to Predict Language Impairment and Outcome in Patients with Aphasia after Stroke?

    PubMed Central

    Kasselimis, Dimitrios; Varkanitsa, Maria; Selai, Caroline; Potagas, Constantin; Evdokimidis, Ioannis

    2014-01-01

    One of the most devastating consequences of stroke is aphasia. Communication problems after stroke can severely impair the patient's quality of life and make even simple everyday tasks challenging. Despite intense research in the field of aphasiology, the type of language impairment has not yet been localized and correlated with brain damage, making it difficult to predict the language outcome for stroke patients with aphasia. Our primary objective is to present the available evidence that highlights the difficulties of predicting language impairment after stroke. The different levels of complexity involved in predicting the lesion site from language impairment and ultimately predicting the long-term outcome in stroke patients with aphasia were explored. Future directions and potential implications for research and clinical practice are highlighted. PMID:24829592

  14. Long-Term Outcome of a Hepatocellular Carcinoma 71/2 Years After Surgery and Repeated Radiofrequency Ablation: Case Report and Review of the Literature

    SciTech Connect

    Thanos, L. Mylona, S.; Nikita, A.; Ptohis, N.; Kelekis, D.A.

    2007-04-15

    An interesting case is presented of a 78-year-old patient with cirrhosis who was managed with combined treatment (surgery and radiofrequency (RF) ablation) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and has survived for 71/2 years. Elevation of the {alpha}-FP (alpha-fetoprotein) levels was noted 2 years after surgery. CT demonstrated two lesions: one central at the remaining right liver lobe, and the other at the excision site. Biopsy of the lesions confirmed the diagnosis of HCC for both of them. RF ablation of these two lesions was performed in one session with technical success. Four and a half years after the first RF ablation a new recurrence was demonstrated at the CT follow-up control. RF ablation was again applied successfully. The imaging findings and the therapeutic percutaneous management of this patient along with the natural course of HCC and its recurrence are discussed, and the literature concerning risk factors is reviewed.

  15. Can assessors and therapists predict the outcome of long-term psychotherapy in borderline personality disorder?

    PubMed

    Spinhoven, Philip; Giesen-Bloo, Josephine; van Dyck, Richard; Arntz, Arnoud

    2008-06-01

    Surprisingly few studies have investigated the accuracy of prognostic assessments of therapy outcome by clinicians. The objective of the present study was to investigate the relationship between clinicians' prognostic assessments and patient characteristics and treatment outcome. Seventy-one patients with a borderline personality disorder randomly allocated to schema-focused therapy (SFT) or transference-focused psychotherapy (TFP) were assessed every 3 months for 3 years. Prognostic assessments proved to be unrelated to patients' biographical (i.e., age, gender, education level, and employment level) and clinical characteristics (i.e., number of Axis I and Axis II diagnoses, and severity of psychiatric symptoms or borderline personality pathology). Clinical assessors as well as therapists rated the probability of success for SFT to be higher than for TFP. Prospective assessments of assessors and therapists accurately predicted different indices of outcome above and independent of patient characteristics. The prediction of outcome in the TFP condition in particular proved to be valid. Identifying prognostic markers of treatment outcome as used by clinicians in their prognostic assessments may improve current prediction models and patient-treatment matching.

  16. Maternal serum hormone concentrations for prediction of adverse outcome in threatened miscarriage.

    PubMed

    Johns, J; Muttukrishna, S; Lygnos, M; Groome, N; Jauniaux, E

    2007-10-01

    Many serum markers have been investigated in attempts to predict the outcome of pregnancy in the first trimester, with varying degrees of success. The objective of this study was to investigate whether they can be related to pregnancy outcome in women presenting with first trimester threatened miscarriage. A cohort study of women attending the Early Pregnancy Unit of a London teaching hospital was studied. A total of 122 women presenting with bleeding in the first trimester and an ongoing pregnancy, and 33 women undergoing termination of pregnancy, were recruited. The main outcome measures were gestation at delivery, birth weight and the incidence of adverse pregnancy outcome. Inhibin A, activin A, human chorionic gonadotrophin (HCG), pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A and follistatin concentrations were all significantly lower in women who subsequently miscarried when compared with live births. Serum HCG concentrations were significantly higher in cases of threatened miscarriage compared with controls (P = 0.0009). Logistic regression analysis indicated that inhibin A alone provided the best predictor for first trimester miscarriage. This pilot study suggests that placental hormone concentrations could be useful in predicting adverse pregnancy outcome in women presenting with threatened miscarriage. Inhibin A was best at predicting the likelihood of subsequent miscarriage in this group. PMID:17908404

  17. Treatment outcome with implant-retained overdentures: Part II--Patient satisfaction and predictability of subjective treatment outcome.

    PubMed

    Cune, M S; de Putter, C; Hoogstraten, J

    1994-08-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the effects of implant-overdenture treatment (IOT) on patients' complaints about dentures and the degree to which subjective treatment outcome could be predicted from baseline patient and treatment characteristics. Four groups of patients were distinguished: one pretreatment group, two posttreatment groups (1 year after treatment) and one reference group of denture wearers, who had not applied for any kind of treatment. They finished a questionnaire with 20 statements on denture complaints. Four scales concerning denture complaints could be distinguished and named after their underlying variables. Differences between the groups were analyzed. IOT treatment was shown to be very effective on a wide range of denture complaints. Little change was seen in patient satisfaction with regard to maxillary dentures when measured on the scales, although many patients wanted improvement in retention and stability for the maxillary denture after IOT treatment in the mandible. Sixteen percent of the denture wearers who had not applied for IOT expressed complaints regarding their mandibular dentures that matched or were more severe than those of the patients that had applied for IOT, before the actual start of treatment. Although generally the subjective treatment outcome of IOT was favorable, it could not be individually predicted from baseline patient and treatment characteristics. PMID:7932261

  18. Understanding the Communicative Implications of Initial Impressions: A Longitudinal Test of Predicted Outcome Value Theory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Horan, Sean M.; Houser, Marian L.

    2012-01-01

    The goal of the present study was to test predicted outcome value theory (POV) in the classroom in order to discover the implications of students' POV judgments. Specifically, we explored the relationships among students' initial POV judgments and students' communication. To that end, we conducted a two-phase study in which students completed…

  19. Associations between Young Children's Emotion Attributions and Prediction of Outcome in Differing Social Situations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Eivers, Areana R.; Brendgen, Mara; Borge, Anne I. H.

    2010-01-01

    Associations between young children's attributions of emotion at different points in a story, and with regard to their own prediction about the story's outcome, were investigated using two hypothetical scenarios of social and emotional challenge (social entry and negative event). First grade children (N = 250) showed an understanding that emotions…

  20. EEG Estimates of Cognitive Workload and Engagement Predict Math Problem Solving Outcomes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Beal, Carole R.; Galan, Federico Cirett

    2012-01-01

    In the present study, the authors focused on the use of electroencephalography (EEG) data about cognitive workload and sustained attention to predict math problem solving outcomes. EEG data were recorded as students solved a series of easy and difficult math problems. Sequences of attention and cognitive workload estimates derived from the EEG…

  1. A Prediction for the Outcome of Press-Enterprise Co. v. Superior Court (II).

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schwartz, Thomas A.

    To determine whether U.S. Supreme Court judges have a systematic attitude toward court cases dealing with the law of newsgathering and fair trial-free press, and whether that attitude can help predict the outcome of the pending case Press-Enterprise Co. v. Superior Court (II), this paper applies an attitudinal theory from the field of social…

  2. Are Career Centers Worthwhile?: Predicting Unique Variance in Career Outcomes through Career Center Usage

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brotheridge, Celeste M.; Power, Jacqueline L.

    2008-01-01

    Purpose: This study seeks to examine the extent to which the use of career center services results in the significant incremental prediction of career outcomes beyond its established predictors. Design/methodology/approach: The authors survey the clients of a public agency's career center and use hierarchical multiple regressions in order to…

  3. Validity of the Medical College Admission Test for Predicting MD-PhD Student Outcomes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bills, James L.; VanHouten, Jacob; Grundy, Michelle M.; Chalkley, Roger; Dermody, Terence S.

    2016-01-01

    The Medical College Admission Test (MCAT) is a quantitative metric used by MD and MD-PhD programs to evaluate applicants for admission. This study assessed the validity of the MCAT in predicting training performance measures and career outcomes for MD-PhD students at a single institution. The study population consisted of 153 graduates of the…

  4. Can Assessment Reactivity Predict Treatment Outcome among Adolescents with Alcohol and Other Substance Use Disorders?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kaminer, Yifrah; Burleson, Joseph A.; Burke, Rebecca H.

    2008-01-01

    The objectives of this paper are two-fold: to examine first, if the change from positive to negative alcohol and any other substance use status from baseline assessment to the onset of the first session (i.e., pre-treatment phase) occurs in adolescents, that is, Assessment Reactivity (AR); second, whether AR predicts treatment outcome.…

  5. Systematic review of prognostic factors predicting outcome in non-surgically treated patients with sciatica.

    PubMed

    Verwoerd, A J H; Luijsterburg, P A J; Lin, C W C; Jacobs, W C H; Koes, B W; Verhagen, A P

    2013-09-01

    Identification of prognostic factors for surgery in patients with sciatica is important to be able to predict surgery in an early stage. Identification of prognostic factors predicting persistent pain, disability and recovery are important for better understanding of the clinical course, to inform patient and physician and support decision making. Consequently, we aimed to systematically review prognostic factors predicting outcome in non-surgically treated patients with sciatica. A search of Medline, Embase, Web of Science and Cinahl, up to March 2012 was performed for prospective cohort studies on prognostic factors for non-surgically treated sciatica. Two reviewers independently selected studies for inclusion and assessed the risk of bias. Outcomes were pain, disability, recovery and surgery. A best evidence synthesis was carried out in order to assess and summarize the data. The initial search yielded 4392 articles of which 23 articles reporting on 14 original cohorts met the inclusion criteria. High clinical, methodological and statistical heterogeneity among studies was found. Reported evidence regarding prognostic factors predicting the outcome in sciatica is limited. The majority of factors that have been evaluated, e.g., age, body mass index, smoking and sensory disturbance, showed no association with outcome. The only positive association with strong evidence was found for leg pain intensity at baseline as prognostic factor for subsequent surgery.

  6. Diagnostic agreement predicts treatment process and outcomes in youth mental health clinics.

    PubMed

    Jensen-Doss, Amanda; Weisz, John R

    2008-10-01

    Several studies have documented low rates of agreement between clinician- and researcher-generated diagnoses. However, little is known about whether this lack of agreement has implications for the processes and outcomes of subsequent treatment. To study this possibility, the authors used diagnostic agreement to predict therapy engagement and outcomes for 197 youths treated in 5 community mental health clinics. Diagnostic agreement predicted better therapy engagement, with the agree group having fewer therapy no-shows and cancellations and a decreased likelihood of therapy dropout. Additionally, support for a link between agreement and treatment outcomes was found, as the agree group obtained larger reductions in parent-reported internalizing problems during treatment. These findings suggest that diagnostic accuracy may be an important precursor to successful treatment and highlight the importance of future research to find ways to incorporate standardized diagnostic procedures into clinical care settings. PMID:18837589

  7. Machine Learning for Outcome Prediction of Acute Ischemic Stroke Post Intra-Arterial Therapy

    PubMed Central

    Asadi, Hamed; Dowling, Richard; Yan, Bernard; Mitchell, Peter

    2014-01-01

    Introduction Stroke is a major cause of death and disability. Accurately predicting stroke outcome from a set of predictive variables may identify high-risk patients and guide treatment approaches, leading to decreased morbidity. Logistic regression models allow for the identification and validation of predictive variables. However, advanced machine learning algorithms offer an alternative, in particular, for large-scale multi-institutional data, with the advantage of easily incorporating newly available data to improve prediction performance. Our aim was to design and compare different machine learning methods, capable of predicting the outcome of endovascular intervention in acute anterior circulation ischaemic stroke. Method We conducted a retrospective study of a prospectively collected database of acute ischaemic stroke treated by endovascular intervention. Using SPSS®, MATLAB®, and Rapidminer®, classical statistics as well as artificial neural network and support vector algorithms were applied to design a supervised machine capable of classifying these predictors into potential good and poor outcomes. These algorithms were trained, validated and tested using randomly divided data. Results We included 107 consecutive acute anterior circulation ischaemic stroke patients treated by endovascular technique. Sixty-six were male and the mean age of 65.3. All the available demographic, procedural and clinical factors were included into the models. The final confusion matrix of the neural network, demonstrated an overall congruency of ∼80% between the target and output classes, with favourable receiving operative characteristics. However, after optimisation, the support vector machine had a relatively better performance, with a root mean squared error of 2.064 (SD: ±0.408). Discussion We showed promising accuracy of outcome prediction, using supervised machine learning algorithms, with potential for incorporation of larger multicenter datasets, likely further

  8. Clinical Experiences Are Not Predictive of Outcomes on the NATABOC Examination

    PubMed Central

    Turocy, Paula Sammarone; Comfort, Ronald E.; Perrin, David H.; Gieck, Joe H.

    2000-01-01

    Objective: To determine the efficacy of the National Athletic Trainers' Association Board of Certification (NATABOC) clinical experience requirements and individual student characteristics to predict candidate outcomes on the NATABOC certification examination. Design and Setting: For all subjects, we gathered survey information and examination scores. The survey information included age, sex, route to certification, previous athletic training and allied health experience, and clinical education experiences. Subjects: A total of 269 subjects, 22.25% of all first-time candidates for the June and November 1993 NATABOC examinations, were included in this study. Measurements: Data were analyzed for standard descriptive statistics and parametric linear regression and correlational relationships. Results: Total clinical hours, high-risk sport experiences, and previous athletic training experience were not predictive of examination outcomes. Although our results indicated a relationship between previous allied health experience and both outcome on the written section of the examination and age and outcome on the oral/practical section, these characteristics also were not predictive of examination outcomes. Conclusions: Gaining clinical experience hours in excess of 400 hours beyond the 800-or 1500-hour requirement may yield no greater benefit for an entry-level professional than less time. The quality, rather than the quantity, of clinical experiences should be evaluated. More emphasis should be placed on the achievement of an entry level of clinical competency, rather than on total hour collection. Also, because high-risk sport experiences did not predict outcomes on the NATABOC examination, the emphasis of clinical education should be on students' receiving a more structured clinical experience, in which they are progressively required to assume greater responsibilities integrating both cognitive and psychomotor skills, while working under the supervision of a certified

  9. The Temporal Stability and Predictive Ability of the Gambling Outcome Expectancies Scale (GOES): A Prospective Study.

    PubMed

    Flack, Mal; Morris, Mary

    2016-09-01

    Previous research using the Gambling Outcome Expectancies Scale (GOES; Flack and Morris in J Gambl Stud, 2015. doi: 10.1007/s10899-014-9484-z ) revealed the instrument has excellent psychometric properties and differentially predicts gambling frequency and problem gambling scores. However, like the existing gambling motivation scales, the GOES psychometric properties and predictive utility have not been tested outside of cross sectional studies. The current study used a prospective survey design to redress this issue. Eight hundred and ninety-three participants, drawn from the general community, completed the second wave of the gambling survey. Temporal invariance testing revealed the GOES was reliable. Furthermore, the ability of the GOES to predict gambling behaviour using baseline and concurrent measures of gambling outcome expectancies was demonstrated. Specifically, consistent with the Wave 1 results, the gambling outcome expectancies that reflect diverse reasons for gambling (e.g., social, escape, and money) preferentially predicted gambling frequency whereas the narrower range of emotion focused reasons (e.g., excitement, escape, and ego enhancement) predicted gambling problems. Considered in light of the Wave 1 findings, these results underscore the need for gambling harm minimisation initiatives to take into account the emotion-oriented reasons for gambling. PMID:26518686

  10. Sample size considerations of prediction-validation methods in high-dimensional data for survival outcomes.

    PubMed

    Pang, Herbert; Jung, Sin-Ho

    2013-04-01

    A variety of prediction methods are used to relate high-dimensional genome data with a clinical outcome using a prediction model. Once a prediction model is developed from a data set, it should be validated using a resampling method or an independent data set. Although the existing prediction methods have been intensively evaluated by many investigators, there has not been a comprehensive study investigating the performance of the validation methods, especially with a survival clinical outcome. Understanding the properties of the various validation methods can allow researchers to perform more powerful validations while controlling for type I error. In addition, sample size calculation strategy based on these validation methods is lacking. We conduct extensive simulations to examine the statistical properties of these validation strategies. In both simulations and a real data example, we have found that 10-fold cross-validation with permutation gave the best power while controlling type I error close to the nominal level. Based on this, we have also developed a sample size calculation method that will be used to design a validation study with a user-chosen combination of prediction. Microarray and genome-wide association studies data are used as illustrations. The power calculation method in this presentation can be used for the design of any biomedical studies involving high-dimensional data and survival outcomes.

  11. Machine learning approach for the outcome prediction of temporal lobe epilepsy surgery.

    PubMed

    Armañanzas, Rubén; Alonso-Nanclares, Lidia; Defelipe-Oroquieta, Jesús; Kastanauskaite, Asta; de Sola, Rafael G; Defelipe, Javier; Bielza, Concha; Larrañaga, Pedro

    2013-01-01

    Epilepsy surgery is effective in reducing both the number and frequency of seizures, particularly in temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE). Nevertheless, a significant proportion of these patients continue suffering seizures after surgery. Here we used a machine learning approach to predict the outcome of epilepsy surgery based on supervised classification data mining taking into account not only the common clinical variables, but also pathological and neuropsychological evaluations. We have generated models capable of predicting whether a patient with TLE secondary to hippocampal sclerosis will fully recover from epilepsy or not. The machine learning analysis revealed that outcome could be predicted with an estimated accuracy of almost 90% using some clinical and neuropsychological features. Importantly, not all the features were needed to perform the prediction; some of them proved to be irrelevant to the prognosis. Personality style was found to be one of the key features to predict the outcome. Although we examined relatively few cases, findings were verified across all data, showing that the machine learning approach described in the present study may be a powerful method. Since neuropsychological assessment of epileptic patients is a standard protocol in the pre-surgical evaluation, we propose to include these specific psychological tests and machine learning tools to improve the selection of candidates for epilepsy surgery.

  12. Can Machine Learning Methods Predict Extubation Outcome in Premature Infants as well as Clinicians?

    PubMed Central

    Mueller, Martina; Almeida, Jonas S.; Stanislaus, Romesh; Wagner, Carol L.

    2014-01-01

    Rationale Though treatment of the prematurely born infant breathing with assistance of a mechanical ventilator has much advanced in the past decades, predicting extubation outcome at a given point in time remains challenging. Numerous studies have been conducted to identify predictors for extubation outcome; however, the rate of infants failing extubation attempts has not declined. Objective To develop a decision-support tool for the prediction of extubation outcome in premature infants using a set of machine learning algorithms Methods A dataset assembled from 486 premature infants on mechanical ventilation was used to develop predictive models using machine learning algorithms such as artificial neural networks (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), naïve Bayesian classifier (NBC), boosted decision trees (BDT), and multivariable logistic regression (MLR). Performance of all models was evaluated using area under the curve (AUC). Results For some of the models (ANN, MLR and NBC) results were satisfactory (AUC: 0.63–0.76); however, two algorithms (SVM and BDT) showed poor performance with AUCs of ~0.5. Conclusion Clinician's predictions still outperform machine learning due to the complexity of the data and contextual information that may not be captured in clinical data used as input for the development of the machine learning algorithms. Inclusion of preprocessing steps in future studies may improve the performance of prediction models. PMID:25419493

  13. Machine learning approach for the outcome prediction of temporal lobe epilepsy surgery.

    PubMed

    Armañanzas, Rubén; Alonso-Nanclares, Lidia; Defelipe-Oroquieta, Jesús; Kastanauskaite, Asta; de Sola, Rafael G; Defelipe, Javier; Bielza, Concha; Larrañaga, Pedro

    2013-01-01

    Epilepsy surgery is effective in reducing both the number and frequency of seizures, particularly in temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE). Nevertheless, a significant proportion of these patients continue suffering seizures after surgery. Here we used a machine learning approach to predict the outcome of epilepsy surgery based on supervised classification data mining taking into account not only the common clinical variables, but also pathological and neuropsychological evaluations. We have generated models capable of predicting whether a patient with TLE secondary to hippocampal sclerosis will fully recover from epilepsy or not. The machine learning analysis revealed that outcome could be predicted with an estimated accuracy of almost 90% using some clinical and neuropsychological features. Importantly, not all the features were needed to perform the prediction; some of them proved to be irrelevant to the prognosis. Personality style was found to be one of the key features to predict the outcome. Although we examined relatively few cases, findings were verified across all data, showing that the machine learning approach described in the present study may be a powerful method. Since neuropsychological assessment of epileptic patients is a standard protocol in the pre-surgical evaluation, we propose to include these specific psychological tests and machine learning tools to improve the selection of candidates for epilepsy surgery. PMID:23646148

  14. Machine Learning Approach for the Outcome Prediction of Temporal Lobe Epilepsy Surgery

    PubMed Central

    DeFelipe-Oroquieta, Jesús; Kastanauskaite, Asta; de Sola, Rafael G.; DeFelipe, Javier; Bielza, Concha; Larrañaga, Pedro

    2013-01-01

    Epilepsy surgery is effective in reducing both the number and frequency of seizures, particularly in temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE). Nevertheless, a significant proportion of these patients continue suffering seizures after surgery. Here we used a machine learning approach to predict the outcome of epilepsy surgery based on supervised classification data mining taking into account not only the common clinical variables, but also pathological and neuropsychological evaluations. We have generated models capable of predicting whether a patient with TLE secondary to hippocampal sclerosis will fully recover from epilepsy or not. The machine learning analysis revealed that outcome could be predicted with an estimated accuracy of almost 90% using some clinical and neuropsychological features. Importantly, not all the features were needed to perform the prediction; some of them proved to be irrelevant to the prognosis. Personality style was found to be one of the key features to predict the outcome. Although we examined relatively few cases, findings were verified across all data, showing that the machine learning approach described in the present study may be a powerful method. Since neuropsychological assessment of epileptic patients is a standard protocol in the pre-surgical evaluation, we propose to include these specific psychological tests and machine learning tools to improve the selection of candidates for epilepsy surgery. PMID:23646148

  15. Sensorimotor adaptation error signals are derived from realistic predictions of movement outcomes.

    PubMed

    Wong, Aaron L; Shelhamer, Mark

    2011-03-01

    Neural systems that control movement maintain accuracy by adaptively altering motor commands in response to errors. It is often assumed that the error signal that drives adaptation is equivalent to the sensory error observed at the conclusion of a movement; for saccades, this is typically the visual (retinal) error. However, we instead propose that the adaptation error signal is derived as the difference between the observed visual error and a realistic prediction of movement outcome. Using a modified saccade-adaptation task in human subjects, we precisely controlled the amount of error experienced at the conclusion of a movement by back-stepping the target so that the saccade is hypometric (positive retinal error), but less hypometric than if the target had not moved (smaller retinal error than expected). This separates prediction error from both visual errors and motor corrections. Despite positive visual errors and forward-directed motor corrections, we found an adaptive decrease in saccade amplitudes, a finding that is well-explained by the employment of a prediction-based error signal. Furthermore, adaptive changes in movement size were linearly correlated to the disparity between the predicted and observed movement outcomes, in agreement with the forward-model hypothesis of motor learning, which states that adaptation error signals incorporate predictions of motor outcomes computed using a copy of the motor command (efference copy).

  16. The Temporal Stability and Predictive Ability of the Gambling Outcome Expectancies Scale (GOES): A Prospective Study.

    PubMed

    Flack, Mal; Morris, Mary

    2016-09-01

    Previous research using the Gambling Outcome Expectancies Scale (GOES; Flack and Morris in J Gambl Stud, 2015. doi: 10.1007/s10899-014-9484-z ) revealed the instrument has excellent psychometric properties and differentially predicts gambling frequency and problem gambling scores. However, like the existing gambling motivation scales, the GOES psychometric properties and predictive utility have not been tested outside of cross sectional studies. The current study used a prospective survey design to redress this issue. Eight hundred and ninety-three participants, drawn from the general community, completed the second wave of the gambling survey. Temporal invariance testing revealed the GOES was reliable. Furthermore, the ability of the GOES to predict gambling behaviour using baseline and concurrent measures of gambling outcome expectancies was demonstrated. Specifically, consistent with the Wave 1 results, the gambling outcome expectancies that reflect diverse reasons for gambling (e.g., social, escape, and money) preferentially predicted gambling frequency whereas the narrower range of emotion focused reasons (e.g., excitement, escape, and ego enhancement) predicted gambling problems. Considered in light of the Wave 1 findings, these results underscore the need for gambling harm minimisation initiatives to take into account the emotion-oriented reasons for gambling.

  17. Outcome Prediction of Consciousness Disorders in the Acute Stage Based on a Complementary Motor Behavioural Tool

    PubMed Central

    Jöhr, Jane; Gilart de Keranflec'h, Charlotte; Van De Ville, Dimitri; Preti, Maria Giulia; Meskaldji, Djalel E.; Hömberg, Volker; Laureys, Steven; Draganski, Bogdan; Frackowiak, Richard; Diserens, Karin

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Attaining an accurate diagnosis in the acute phase for severely brain-damaged patients presenting Disorders of Consciousness (DOC) is crucial for prognostic validity; such a diagnosis determines further medical management, in terms of therapeutic choices and end-of-life decisions. However, DOC evaluation based on validated scales, such as the Revised Coma Recovery Scale (CRS-R), can lead to an underestimation of consciousness and to frequent misdiagnoses particularly in cases of cognitive motor dissociation due to other aetiologies. The purpose of this study is to determine the clinical signs that lead to a more accurate consciousness assessment allowing more reliable outcome prediction. Methods From the Unit of Acute Neurorehabilitation (University Hospital, Lausanne, Switzerland) between 2011 and 2014, we enrolled 33 DOC patients with a DOC diagnosis according to the CRS-R that had been established within 28 days of brain damage. The first CRS-R assessment established the initial diagnosis of Unresponsive Wakefulness Syndrome (UWS) in 20 patients and a Minimally Consciousness State (MCS) in the remaining13 patients. We clinically evaluated the patients over time using the CRS-R scale and concurrently from the beginning with complementary clinical items of a new observational Motor Behaviour Tool (MBT). Primary endpoint was outcome at unit discharge distinguishing two main classes of patients (DOC patients having emerged from DOC and those remaining in DOC) and 6 subclasses detailing the outcome of UWS and MCS patients, respectively. Based on CRS-R and MBT scores assessed separately and jointly, statistical testing was performed in the acute phase using a non-parametric Mann-Whitney U test; longitudinal CRS-R data were modelled with a Generalized Linear Model. Results Fifty-five per cent of the UWS patients and 77% of the MCS patients had emerged from DOC. First, statistical prediction of the first CRS-R scores did not permit outcome differentiation

  18. Prediction of Outcome after Traumatic Brain Injury: Comparison of Disease State Index and IMPACT Calculator.

    PubMed

    Liedes, Hilkka; Mattila, Jussi; Lingsma, Hester; Lötjönen, Jyrki; Menon, David; Tenovuo, Olli; van Gils, Mark

    2016-01-01

    Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a major cause of death and disability, especially in young adults. A reliable prediction of outcome after TBI is of great importance in clinical practice and research. We aimed to compare performance of the well-established IMPACT calculator and an alternative method, Disease State Index (DSI), in the prediction of six-month outcome after TBI. Performance of the models was evaluated using 2036 patients with moderate or severe TBI from the International Mission for Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials in TBI (IMPACT) database. Prediction performance of both models was similar. The models with more variables provided better performance than the simpler models. This study showed that the DSI is a valid tool with efficient visualizations that can help clinicians with their decision making process in clinical practice. PMID:27225575

  19. Trait body shame predicts health outcomes in college women: A longitudinal investigation.

    PubMed

    Lamont, Jean M

    2015-12-01

    Trait body shame impacts psychological health, but its influence on physical health heretofore has not been examined. While body shame may be expected to impact physical health through many mechanisms, this investigation tested whether trait body shame predicts physical health outcomes by promoting negative attitudes toward bodily processes, thereby diminishing health evaluation and ultimately impacting physical health. Correlational (Study 1, N = 177) and longitudinal (Study 2, N = 141) studies tested hypotheses that trait body shame would predict infections, self-rated health, and symptoms, and that body responsiveness and health evaluation would mediate these relationships. In Study 1, trait body shame predicted all three poor health outcomes, and body responsiveness and health evaluation mediated these relationships. Study 2 partially replicated these results while controlling for depression, smoking, and BMI, and longitudinal analyses supported the temporal precedence of trait body shame in the proposed model. Limitations and alternative pathways are discussed. PMID:26201456

  20. Severe hypoxaemia can predict unfavourable clinical outcomes in individuals with pulmonary embolism aged over 40 years

    PubMed Central

    Souza, Caio Simoes; Resende, Fernanda Simoes Seabra; Rodrigues, Marcelo Palmeira

    2014-01-01

    INTRODUCTION Acute pulmonary embolism (APE) is an urgent clinical condition that can progress in a wide variety of ways. Therefore, we sought to develop an easy-to-apply algorithm, to be based on readily available clinical indicators, effective in predicting unfavourable outcomes. METHODS This was a retrospective cohort study based on systematically collected data in a database. The study included 102 patients with APE who were admitted to a tertiary care hospital. The following outcomes were defined as unfavourable shock, the need for mechanical ventilation, the use of thrombolytics, and death. Logistic regression analysis was used to explore variables significantly associated with outcome and to calculate post-test probabilities. RESULTS The prevalence of unfavourable outcomes was 25.5% (26 of the 102 patients with APE). The risk of an unfavourable outcome was reduced to 7.0% for patients with APE who were aged ≤ 40 years. In patients with APE who were aged > 40 years, the presence of hypoxaemia (i.e. peripheral oxygen saturation < 90%) alone increased the risk of an unfavourable outcome to 57.0%. A recent history of trauma and the presence of pre-existing lung or heart disease were significantly associated with unfavourable outcomes. The inclusion of those variables in the logistic regression model increased the post-test risk of an unfavourable outcome to 65.0%–86.0%. CONCLUSION Advanced age (i.e. > 40 years), the presence of hypoxaemia, a recent history of trauma and the presence of pre-existing lung or heart disease are risk factors for unfavourable outcome in patients with APE. PMID:25273933

  1. PREDICTING OUTCOMES IN PATIENTS WITH CHRONIC MYELOID LEUKEMIA AT ANY TIME DURING TYROSINE KINASE INHIBITOR THERAPY

    PubMed Central

    Quintás-Cardama, Alfonso; Choi, Sangbum; Kantarjian, Hagop; Jabbour, Elias; Huang, Xuelin; Cortes, Jorge

    2014-01-01

    Current recommendations for monitoring patients with chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) provide recommendations for response assessment and treatment only at 3, 6, 12, and 18 months. These recommendations are based on clinical trial outcomes computed from treatment start. Conditional survival estimates take into account the changing hazard rates as time from treatment elapses as a continuum. We performed conditional survival analyses among patients with CML to improve prognostication at any time point during the course of therapy. We used two cohorts of patients with CML in chronic phase: one treated in the frontline DASISION phase III study (n=519) and another treated after imatinib failure in the dasatinib dose-optimization phase III CA180-034 study (n=670). Conditional survival estimates were calculated. A modified Cox proportional hazards model was used to build a prognostic nomogram. As the time alive or free from events from commencement of treatment increased, conditional survival estimates changed. No differences were observed regarding future outcomes between patients treated with imatinib or dasatinib in the frontline setting for patients with the same BCR-ABL1 transcript levels evaluated at the same time-point. Age over 60 years greatly impacted future outcomes particularly in the short-term. Conditional survival-based nomograms allowed the prediction of future outcomes at any time-point. In summary, we designed a calculator to predict future outcomes of patients with CML at any time-point during the course of therapy. PMID:24594142

  2. Using a Machine Learning Approach to Predict Outcomes after Radiosurgery for Cerebral Arteriovenous Malformations

    PubMed Central

    Oermann, Eric Karl; Rubinsteyn, Alex; Ding, Dale; Mascitelli, Justin; Starke, Robert M.; Bederson, Joshua B.; Kano, Hideyuki; Lunsford, L. Dade; Sheehan, Jason P.; Hammerbacher, Jeffrey; Kondziolka, Douglas

    2016-01-01

    Predictions of patient outcomes after a given therapy are fundamental to medical practice. We employ a machine learning approach towards predicting the outcomes after stereotactic radiosurgery for cerebral arteriovenous malformations (AVMs). Using three prospective databases, a machine learning approach of feature engineering and model optimization was implemented to create the most accurate predictor of AVM outcomes. Existing prognostic systems were scored for purposes of comparison. The final predictor was secondarily validated on an independent site’s dataset not utilized for initial construction. Out of 1,810 patients, 1,674 to 1,291 patients depending upon time threshold, with 23 features were included for analysis and divided into training and validation sets. The best predictor had an average area under the curve (AUC) of 0.71 compared to existing clinical systems of 0.63 across all time points. On the heldout dataset, the predictor had an accuracy of around 0.74 at across all time thresholds with a specificity and sensitivity of 62% and 85% respectively. This machine learning approach was able to provide the best possible predictions of AVM radiosurgery outcomes of any method to date, identify a novel radiobiological feature (3D surface dose), and demonstrate a paradigm for further development of prognostic tools in medical care. PMID:26856372

  3. Using a Machine Learning Approach to Predict Outcomes after Radiosurgery for Cerebral Arteriovenous Malformations.

    PubMed

    Oermann, Eric Karl; Rubinsteyn, Alex; Ding, Dale; Mascitelli, Justin; Starke, Robert M; Bederson, Joshua B; Kano, Hideyuki; Lunsford, L Dade; Sheehan, Jason P; Hammerbacher, Jeffrey; Kondziolka, Douglas

    2016-02-09

    Predictions of patient outcomes after a given therapy are fundamental to medical practice. We employ a machine learning approach towards predicting the outcomes after stereotactic radiosurgery for cerebral arteriovenous malformations (AVMs). Using three prospective databases, a machine learning approach of feature engineering and model optimization was implemented to create the most accurate predictor of AVM outcomes. Existing prognostic systems were scored for purposes of comparison. The final predictor was secondarily validated on an independent site's dataset not utilized for initial construction. Out of 1,810 patients, 1,674 to 1,291 patients depending upon time threshold, with 23 features were included for analysis and divided into training and validation sets. The best predictor had an average area under the curve (AUC) of 0.71 compared to existing clinical systems of 0.63 across all time points. On the heldout dataset, the predictor had an accuracy of around 0.74 at across all time thresholds with a specificity and sensitivity of 62% and 85% respectively. This machine learning approach was able to provide the best possible predictions of AVM radiosurgery outcomes of any method to date, identify a novel radiobiological feature (3D surface dose), and demonstrate a paradigm for further development of prognostic tools in medical care.

  4. Inflammation-driven malnutrition: a new screening tool predicts outcome in Crohn's disease.

    PubMed

    Jansen, Irene; Prager, Matthias; Valentini, Luzia; Büning, Carsten

    2016-09-01

    Malnutrition is a frequent feature in Crohn's disease (CD), affects patient outcome and must be recognised. For chronic inflammatory diseases, recent guidelines recommend the development of combined malnutrition and inflammation risk scores. We aimed to design and evaluate a new screening tool that combines both malnutrition and inflammation parameters that might help predict clinical outcome. In a prospective cohort study, we examined fifty-five patients with CD in remission (Crohn's disease activity index (CDAI) <200) at 0 and 6 months. We assessed disease activity (CDAI, Harvey-Bradshaw index), inflammation (C-reactive protein (CRP), faecal calprotectin (FC)), malnutrition (BMI, subjective global assessment (SGA), serum albumin, handgrip strength), body composition (bioelectrical impedance analysis) and administered the newly developed 'Malnutrition Inflammation Risk Tool' (MIRT; containing BMI, unintentional weight loss over 3 months and CRP). All parameters were evaluated regarding their ability to predict disease outcome prospectively at 6 months. At baseline, more than one-third of patients showed elevated inflammatory markers despite clinical remission (36·4 % CRP ≥5 mg/l, 41·5 % FC ≥100 µg/g). Prevalence of malnutrition at baseline according to BMI, SGA and serum albumin was 2-16 %. At 6 months, MIRT significantly predicted outcome in numerous nutritional and clinical parameters (SGA, CD-related flares, hospitalisations and surgeries). In contrast, SGA, handgrip strength, BMI, albumin and body composition had no influence on the clinical course. The newly developed MIRT was found to reliably predict clinical outcome in CD patients. This screening tool might be used to facilitate clinical decision making, including treatment of both inflammation and malnutrition in order to prevent complications.

  5. Inflammation-driven malnutrition: a new screening tool predicts outcome in Crohn's disease.

    PubMed

    Jansen, Irene; Prager, Matthias; Valentini, Luzia; Büning, Carsten

    2016-09-01

    Malnutrition is a frequent feature in Crohn's disease (CD), affects patient outcome and must be recognised. For chronic inflammatory diseases, recent guidelines recommend the development of combined malnutrition and inflammation risk scores. We aimed to design and evaluate a new screening tool that combines both malnutrition and inflammation parameters that might help predict clinical outcome. In a prospective cohort study, we examined fifty-five patients with CD in remission (Crohn's disease activity index (CDAI) <200) at 0 and 6 months. We assessed disease activity (CDAI, Harvey-Bradshaw index), inflammation (C-reactive protein (CRP), faecal calprotectin (FC)), malnutrition (BMI, subjective global assessment (SGA), serum albumin, handgrip strength), body composition (bioelectrical impedance analysis) and administered the newly developed 'Malnutrition Inflammation Risk Tool' (MIRT; containing BMI, unintentional weight loss over 3 months and CRP). All parameters were evaluated regarding their ability to predict disease outcome prospectively at 6 months. At baseline, more than one-third of patients showed elevated inflammatory markers despite clinical remission (36·4 % CRP ≥5 mg/l, 41·5 % FC ≥100 µg/g). Prevalence of malnutrition at baseline according to BMI, SGA and serum albumin was 2-16 %. At 6 months, MIRT significantly predicted outcome in numerous nutritional and clinical parameters (SGA, CD-related flares, hospitalisations and surgeries). In contrast, SGA, handgrip strength, BMI, albumin and body composition had no influence on the clinical course. The newly developed MIRT was found to reliably predict clinical outcome in CD patients. This screening tool might be used to facilitate clinical decision making, including treatment of both inflammation and malnutrition in order to prevent complications. PMID:27546478

  6. Specific gyrA gene mutations predict poor treatment outcome in MDR-TB

    PubMed Central

    Rigouts, L.; Coeck, N.; Gumusboga, M.; de Rijk, W. B.; Aung, K. J. M.; Hossain, M. A.; Fissette, K.; Rieder, H. L.; Meehan, C. J.; de Jong, B. C.; Van Deun, A.

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Mutations in the gyrase genes cause fluoroquinolone resistance in Mycobacterium tuberculosis. However, the predictive value of these markers for clinical outcomes in patients with MDR-TB is unknown to date. The objective of this study was to determine molecular markers and breakpoints predicting second-line treatment outcomes in M. tuberculosis patients treated with fourth-generation fluoroquinolones. Methods We analysed treatment outcome data in relation to the gyrA and gyrB sequences and MICs of ofloxacin, gatifloxacin and moxifloxacin for pretreatment M. tuberculosis isolates from 181 MDR-TB patients in Bangladesh whose isolates were susceptible to injectable drugs. Results The gyrA 90Val, 94Gly and 94Ala mutations were most frequent, with the highest resistance levels for 94Gly mutants. Increased pretreatment resistance levels (>2 mg/L), related to specific mutations, were associated with lower cure percentages, with no cure in patients whose isolates were resistant to gatifloxacin at 4 mg/L. Any gyrA 94 mutation, except 94Ala, predicted a significantly lower proportion of cure compared with all other gyrA mutations taken together (all non-94 mutants + 94Ala) [OR = 4.3 (95% CI 1.4–13.0)]. The difference in treatment outcome was not explained by resistance to the other drugs. Conclusions Our study suggests that gyrA mutations at position 94, other than Ala, predict high-level resistance to gatifloxacin and moxifloxacin, as well as poor treatment outcome, in MDR-TB patients in whom an injectable agent is still effective. PMID:26604243

  7. Predicting gambling problems from gambling outcome expectancies in college student-athletes.

    PubMed

    St-Pierre, Renée A; Temcheff, Caroline E; Gupta, Rina; Derevensky, Jeffrey; Paskus, Thomas S

    2014-03-01

    While previous research has suggested the potential importance of gambling outcome expectancies in determining gambling behaviour among adolescents, the predictive ability of gambling outcome expectancies has not yet been clearly delineated for college-aged youth. The current study aims to explore the relationships between gender and outcome expectancies in the prediction of gambling severity among college student-athletes. Data from the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) study assessing gambling behaviours and problems among U.S. college student-athletes were utilized. Complete data was available for 7,517 student-athletes. As expected, male college student-athletes reported more gambling participation as well as greater gambling problems than their female counterparts. Findings showed positive relationships between the outcome expectancies of financial gain, and negative emotional impacts and gambling problems. That is, those who endorsed more items on the outcome expectancy scales for financial gain and negative emotional impacts also tended to endorse more gambling-related problems. Findings also showed a negative relationship between outcome expectancies of fun and enjoyment, and gambling problems over and above the variance accounted for by gender. Those with gambling problems were less likely to have the expectation that gambling would be fun than those without gambling problems. Despite NCAA efforts to curb gambling activity, the results suggest that college student-athletes are at risk for over-involvement in gambling. Therefore, it is important to explore gambling outcome expectancies within this group since the motivations and reasons for gambling might be able to inform treatment initiatives.

  8. Intrinsic Functional Connectivity Patterns Predict Consciousness Level and Recovery Outcome in Acquired Brain Injury

    PubMed Central

    Wu, Xuehai; Zou, Qihong; Hu, Jin; Tang, Weijun; Mao, Ying; Gao, Liang; Zhu, Jianhong; Jin, Yi; Wu, Xin; Lu, Lu; Zhang, Yaojun; Zhang, Yao; Dai, Zhengjia; Gao, Jia-Hong; Weng, Xuchu; Northoff, Georg; Giacino, Joseph T.; He, Yong

    2015-01-01

    For accurate diagnosis and prognostic prediction of acquired brain injury (ABI), it is crucial to understand the neurobiological mechanisms underlying loss of consciousness. However, there is no consensus on which regions and networks act as biomarkers for consciousness level and recovery outcome in ABI. Using resting-state fMRI, we assessed intrinsic functional connectivity strength (FCS) of whole-brain networks in a large sample of 99 ABI patients with varying degrees of consciousness loss (including fully preserved consciousness state, minimally conscious state, unresponsive wakefulness syndrome/vegetative state, and coma) and 34 healthy control subjects. Consciousness level was evaluated using the Glasgow Coma Scale and Coma Recovery Scale-Revised on the day of fMRI scanning; recovery outcome was assessed using the Glasgow Outcome Scale 3 months after the fMRI scanning. One-way ANOVA of FCS, Spearman correlation analyses between FCS and the consciousness level and recovery outcome, and FCS-based multivariate pattern analysis were performed. We found decreased FCS with loss of consciousness primarily distributed in the posterior cingulate cortex/precuneus (PCC/PCU), medial prefrontal cortex, and lateral parietal cortex. The FCS values of these regions were significantly correlated with consciousness level and recovery outcome. Multivariate support vector machine discrimination analysis revealed that the FCS patterns predicted whether patients with unresponsive wakefulness syndrome/vegetative state and coma would regain consciousness with an accuracy of 81.25%, and the most discriminative region was the PCC/PCU. These findings suggest that intrinsic functional connectivity patterns of the human posteromedial cortex could serve as a potential indicator for consciousness level and recovery outcome in individuals with ABI. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Varying degrees of consciousness loss and recovery are commonly observed in acquired brain injury patients, yet the

  9. Prediction of Outcome for Transabdominal Cerclage in Women with Cervical Insufficiency

    PubMed Central

    Song, Ji Eun; Son, Ga Hyun

    2015-01-01

    We investigated pregnancy outcome following transabdominal cerclage (TAC) in women with cervical insufficiency (CI) and explored parameters for predicting pregnancy outcomes following TAC. In this retrospective cohort study, we included 161 women with TAC. We considered demographic, obstetric, and gynecologic histories, pre- and postoperative cervical length (CL), and CL at 20–24 weeks as parameters for predicting outcomes following TAC. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to identify risk factors for predicting delivery before 34 weeks after TAC. 182 pregnancies occurred after TAC, and 290 pregnancies prior to TAC were identified. The rate of delivery <34 weeks significantly decreased following TAC (5% versus 82%, P < 0.001). Univariate analysis demonstrated that a short CL (<25 mm) at 20–24 weeks and adenomyosis were associated with delivery at <34 weeks' gestation following TAC (P = 0.015 and P = 0.005, resp.). However, multivariate analysis demonstrated that only a short CL (<25 mm) at 20–24 weeks was a significant predictor (P = 0.005). TAC is an efficacious procedure that prolongs pregnancy in women with CI. A short CL at 20–24 weeks may predict the delivery at <34 weeks' gestation following TAC. PMID:25811033

  10. Prediction of outcome for transabdominal cerclage in women with cervical insufficiency.

    PubMed

    Song, Ji Eun; Lee, Keun Young; Son, Ga Hyun

    2015-01-01

    We investigated pregnancy outcome following transabdominal cerclage (TAC) in women with cervical insufficiency (CI) and explored parameters for predicting pregnancy outcomes following TAC. In this retrospective cohort study, we included 161 women with TAC. We considered demographic, obstetric, and gynecologic histories, pre- and postoperative cervical length (CL), and CL at 20-24 weeks as parameters for predicting outcomes following TAC. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to identify risk factors for predicting delivery before 34 weeks after TAC. 182 pregnancies occurred after TAC, and 290 pregnancies prior to TAC were identified. The rate of delivery <34 weeks significantly decreased following TAC (5% versus 82%, P < 0.001). Univariate analysis demonstrated that a short CL (<25 mm) at 20-24 weeks and adenomyosis were associated with delivery at <34 weeks' gestation following TAC (P = 0.015 and P = 0.005, resp.). However, multivariate analysis demonstrated that only a short CL (<25 mm) at 20-24 weeks was a significant predictor (P = 0.005). TAC is an efficacious procedure that prolongs pregnancy in women with CI. A short CL at 20-24 weeks may predict the delivery at <34 weeks' gestation following TAC.

  11. Minimal Brain Dysfunction in Childhood: II. Late Outcome in Relation to Initial Presentation. III. Predictive Factors in Relation to Late Outcome.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Milman, Doris H.

    Two studies explore the late outcome of minimal brain dysfunction in 73 patients in relation to their initial presentation and predictive factors. Both studies followed the patients for a period of 10 to 20 years. Findings from the first study of initial presentation in relation to adult outcome showed that there was a strong positive correlation…

  12. Early functional magnetic resonance imaging activations predict language outcome after stroke.

    PubMed

    Saur, Dorothee; Ronneberger, Olaf; Kümmerer, Dorothee; Mader, Irina; Weiller, Cornelius; Klöppel, Stefan

    2010-04-01

    An accurate prediction of system-specific recovery after stroke is essential to provide rehabilitation therapy based on the individual needs. We explored the usefulness of functional magnetic resonance imaging scans from an auditory language comprehension experiment to predict individual language recovery in 21 aphasic stroke patients. Subjects with an at least moderate language impairment received extensive language testing 2 weeks and 6 months after left-hemispheric stroke. A multivariate machine learning technique was used to predict language outcome 6 months after stroke. In addition, we aimed to predict the degree of language improvement over 6 months. 76% of patients were correctly separated into those with good and bad language performance 6 months after stroke when based on functional magnetic resonance imaging data from language relevant areas. Accuracy further improved (86% correct assignments) when age and language score were entered alongside functional magnetic resonance imaging data into the fully automatic classifier. A similar accuracy was reached when predicting the degree of language improvement based on imaging, age and language performance. No prediction better than chance level was achieved when exploring the usefulness of diffusion weighted imaging as well as functional magnetic resonance imaging acquired two days after stroke. This study demonstrates the high potential of current machine learning techniques to predict system-specific clinical outcome even for a disease as heterogeneous as stroke. Best prediction of language recovery is achieved when the brain activation potential after system-specific stimulation is assessed in the second week post stroke. More intensive early rehabilitation could be provided for those with a predicted poor recovery and the extension to other systems, for example, motor and attention seems feasible. PMID:20299389

  13. Development and optimization of SPECT gated blood pool cluster analysis for the prediction of CRT outcome

    SciTech Connect

    Lalonde, Michel Wassenaar, Richard; Wells, R. Glenn; Birnie, David; Ruddy, Terrence D.

    2014-07-15

    Purpose: Phase analysis of single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) radionuclide angiography (RNA) has been investigated for its potential to predict the outcome of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT). However, phase analysis may be limited in its potential at predicting CRT outcome as valuable information may be lost by assuming that time-activity curves (TAC) follow a simple sinusoidal shape. A new method, cluster analysis, is proposed which directly evaluates the TACs and may lead to a better understanding of dyssynchrony patterns and CRT outcome. Cluster analysis algorithms were developed and optimized to maximize their ability to predict CRT response. Methods: About 49 patients (N = 27 ischemic etiology) received a SPECT RNA scan as well as positron emission tomography (PET) perfusion and viability scans prior to undergoing CRT. A semiautomated algorithm sampled the left ventricle wall to produce 568 TACs from SPECT RNA data. The TACs were then subjected to two different cluster analysis techniques, K-means, and normal average, where several input metrics were also varied to determine the optimal settings for the prediction of CRT outcome. Each TAC was assigned to a cluster group based on the comparison criteria and global and segmental cluster size and scores were used as measures of dyssynchrony and used to predict response to CRT. A repeated random twofold cross-validation technique was used to train and validate the cluster algorithm. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to calculate the area under the curve (AUC) and compare results to those obtained for SPECT RNA phase analysis and PET scar size analysis methods. Results: Using the normal average cluster analysis approach, the septal wall produced statistically significant results for predicting CRT results in the ischemic population (ROC AUC = 0.73;p < 0.05 vs. equal chance ROC AUC = 0.50) with an optimal operating point of 71% sensitivity and 60% specificity. Cluster

  14. Vagal Regulation of Heart Rate in the Prediction of Developmental Outcome for Very Low Birth Weight Preterm Infants.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Doussard-Roosevelt, Jane A.; And Others

    1997-01-01

    Used heart rate and respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA) assessed at 33 to 35 weeks gestational age to predict developmental outcome at 3 years for very low birth weight infants. Found that RSA measures predicted developmental outcome beyond effects of birth weight, medical risk, and socioeconomic status. For infants < 1,000 grams, RSA maturation…

  15. Prediction of post-surgical seizure outcome in left mesial temporal lobe epilepsy.

    PubMed

    Feis, Delia-Lisa; Schoene-Bake, Jan-Christoph; Elger, Christian; Wagner, Jan; Tittgemeyer, Marc; Weber, Bernd

    2013-01-01

    Mesial temporal lobe epilepsy is the most common type of focal epilepsy and in its course often becomes refractory to anticonvulsant pharmacotherapy. A resection of the mesial temporal lobe structures is a promising option in these cases. However, approximately 30% of all patients remain with persistent seizures after surgery. In other words, reliable criteria for patients' outcome prediction are absent. To address this limitation, we investigated pre-surgical brain morphology of patients with unilateral left mesial temporal lobe epilepsy who underwent a selective amygdalohippocampectomy. Using support vector classification, we aimed to predict the post-surgical seizure outcome of each patient based on the pre-surgical T1-weighted structural brain images. Due to morphological gender differences and the evidence that men and women differ in onset, prevalence and symptomology in most neurological diseases, we investigated male and female patients separately. Thus, we benefitted from the capability to validate the reliability of our method in two independent samples. Notably, we were able to accurately predict the individual patients' outcome in the male (94% balanced accuracy) as well as in the female (96% balanced accuracy) group. In the male cohort relatively larger white matter volumes in the favorable as compared to the non-favorable outcome group were identified bilaterally in the cingulum bundle, fronto-occipital fasciculus and both caudate nuclei, whereas the left inferior longitudinal fasciculus showed relatively larger white matter volume in the non-favorable group. While relatively larger white matter volumes in the female cohort in the left inferior and right middle longitudinal fasciculus were associated with the favorable outcome, relatively larger white matter volumes in the non-favorable outcome group were identified bilaterally in the superior longitudinal fasciculi I and II. Here, we observed a clear lateralization and distinction of structures

  16. European Treatment and Outcome Study score does not predict imatinib treatment response and outcome in chronic myeloid leukemia patients

    PubMed Central

    Yamamoto, Eri; Fujisawa, Shin; Hagihara, Maki; Tanaka, Masatsugu; Fujimaki, Katsumichi; Kishimoto, Kumiko; Hashimoto, Chizuko; Itabashi, Megumi; Ishibashi, Daisuke; Nakajima, Yuki; Tachibana, Takayoshi; Kawasaki, Rika; Kuwabara, Hideyuki; Koharazawa, Hideyuki; Yamazaki, Etsuko; Tomita, Naoto; Sakai, Rika; Fujita, Hiroyuki; Kanamori, Heiwa; Ishigatsubo, Yoshiaki

    2014-01-01

    The Sokal and Hasford scores were developed in the chemotherapy and interferon era and are widely used as prognostic indicators in patients with chronic myeloid leukemia (CML). Recently, a new European Treatment and Outcome Study (EUTOS) scoring system was developed. We performed a multicenter retrospective study to validate the effectiveness of each of the three scoring systems. The study cohort included 145 patients diagnosed with CML in chronic phase who were treated with imatinib. In the EUTOS low- and high-risk groups, the cumulative incidence of complete cytogenetic response (CCyR) at 18 months was 86.9% and 87.5% (P = 0.797) and the 5-year overall survival rate was 92.6% and 93.3% (P = 0.871), respectively. The cumulative incidence of CCyR at 12 months, 5-year event-free survival and 5-year progression-free survival were not predicted using the EUTOS scoring system. However, there were significant differences in both the Sokal score and Hasford score risk groups. In our retrospective validation study, the EUTOS score did not predict the prognosis of patients with CML in chronic phase treated with imatinib. PMID:24450386

  17. Validating prediction models of kidney transplant outcome using single center data.

    PubMed

    Tang, Hongying; Hurdle, John F; Poynton, Mollie; Hunter, Cheri; Tu, Ming; Baird, Bradley C; Krikov, Sergey; Goldfarb-Rumyantzev, Alexander S

    2011-01-01

    Prediction of kidney transplant outcome represents an important and clinically relevant problem. Although several prediction models have been proposed based on large, national collections of data, their utility at the local level (where local data distributions may differ from national data) remains unclear. We conducted a comparative analysis that modeled the outcome data of transplant recipients in the national US Renal Data System (USRDS) against a representative local transplant dataset at the University of Utah Health Sciences Center, a regional transplant center. The performance of an identical set of prediction models was evaluated on both national and local data to assess how well national models reflect local outcomes. Compared with the USRDS dataset, several key characteristics of the local dataset differed significantly (e.g., a much higher local graft survival rate; a much higher local percentage of white donors and recipients; and a much higher proportion of living donors). This was reflected in statistically significant differences in model performance. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values of the models predicting 1, 3, 5, 7, and 10-year graft survival on the USRDS data were 0.59, 0.63, 0.76, 0.91, and 0.97, respectively. In contrast, in the local dataset, these values were 0.54, 0.58, 0.58, 0.61, and 0.70, respectively. Prediction models trained on a national set of data from the USRDS performed better in the national dataset than in the local data. This might be due to the differences in the data characteristics between the two datasets, suggesting that the wholesale adoption of a prediction model developed on a large national dataset to guide local clinical practice should be done with caution.

  18. Validating prediction models of kidney transplant outcome using single center data.

    PubMed

    Tang, Hongying; Hurdle, John F; Poynton, Mollie; Hunter, Cheri; Tu, Ming; Baird, Bradley C; Krikov, Sergey; Goldfarb-Rumyantzev, Alexander S

    2011-01-01

    Prediction of kidney transplant outcome represents an important and clinically relevant problem. Although several prediction models have been proposed based on large, national collections of data, their utility at the local level (where local data distributions may differ from national data) remains unclear. We conducted a comparative analysis that modeled the outcome data of transplant recipients in the national US Renal Data System (USRDS) against a representative local transplant dataset at the University of Utah Health Sciences Center, a regional transplant center. The performance of an identical set of prediction models was evaluated on both national and local data to assess how well national models reflect local outcomes. Compared with the USRDS dataset, several key characteristics of the local dataset differed significantly (e.g., a much higher local graft survival rate; a much higher local percentage of white donors and recipients; and a much higher proportion of living donors). This was reflected in statistically significant differences in model performance. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values of the models predicting 1, 3, 5, 7, and 10-year graft survival on the USRDS data were 0.59, 0.63, 0.76, 0.91, and 0.97, respectively. In contrast, in the local dataset, these values were 0.54, 0.58, 0.58, 0.61, and 0.70, respectively. Prediction models trained on a national set of data from the USRDS performed better in the national dataset than in the local data. This might be due to the differences in the data characteristics between the two datasets, suggesting that the wholesale adoption of a prediction model developed on a large national dataset to guide local clinical practice should be done with caution. PMID:21389849

  19. Acute Ultrasonography Investigation to Predict Reruptures and Outcomes in Patients With an Achilles Tendon Rupture

    PubMed Central

    Westin, Olof; Nilsson Helander, Katarina; Grävare Silbernagel, Karin; Möller, Michael; Kälebo, Peter; Karlsson, Jón

    2016-01-01

    Background: The optimal treatment for acute Achilles tendon ruptures is still an ongoing debate. Acute ultrasonography (US) investigation to measure the diastasis between the tendon ends has previously been used to classify acute Achilles tendon ruptures; however, no study has used US to predict reruptures and functional outcomes. Purpose: To investigate whether acute US can be used to predict the risk of reruptures and outcomes after treatment of an acute Achilles tendon rupture. Study Design: Cohort study; Level of evidence, 2. Methods: Forty-five patients (37 men, 8 women) with a mean age of 39 ± 9.2 years (range, 23-59 years) from a cohort of 97 patients participating in a randomized controlled study comparing surgical and nonsurgical treatment were included. US was performed within 72 hours from the index injury. Diastasis between the tendon ends was documented. Reruptures were documented, and the patients’ functional outcomes were measured 12 months after injury. Results: Patients with a diastasis of >10 mm treated nonsurgically had a higher degree of rerupture. In the nonsurgically treated group, 3 of 4 patients with a diastasis of >10 mm suffered from rerupture (P < .001). Moreover, in the nonsurgical group, there was significantly worse outcomes in patients with a diastasis of >5 mm in terms of patient-reported outcomes using the Achilles tendon Total Rupture Score (ATRS) (P = .004) and heel-rise height at 12 months (P = .048) compared with the group with a lesser degree of tendon separation. Conclusion: US may be a useful tool to predict the risk of rerupture and greater degree of functional deficit. It may be an important measure in a clinical treatment algorithm for deciding whether a patient will benefit from surgical intervention after an acute Achilles tendon rupture. PMID:27781212

  20. Exposure and Response Prevention Process Predicts Treatment Outcome in Youth with OCD

    PubMed Central

    Kircanski, Katharina; Peris, Tara S.

    2014-01-01

    Recent research on the treatment of adults with anxiety disorders suggests that aspects of the in-session exposure therapy process are relevant to clinical outcomes. However, few comprehensive studies have been conducted with children and adolescents. In the present study, 35 youth diagnosed with primary obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD; M age=12.9 years, 49% male, 63% Caucasian) completed 12 sessions of exposure and response prevention (ERP) in one of two treatment conditions as part of a pilot randomized controlled testing of a family focused intervention for OCD. Key exposure process variables, including youth self-reported distress during ERP and the quantity and quality of ERP completed, were computed. These variables were examined as predictors of treatment outcomes assessed at mid-treatment, post-treatment, and three-month follow-up, partialing treatment condition. In general, greater variability of distress during ERP and completing a greater proportion of combined exposures (i.e., exposures targeting more than one OC symptom at once) were predictive of better outcomes. Conversely, greater distress at the end of treatment was generally predictive of poorer outcomes. Finally, several variables, including within- and between-session decreases in distress during ERP, were not consistently predictive of outcomes. Findings signal potentially important facets of exposure for youth with OCD and have implications for treatment. A number of results also parallel recent findings in the adult literature, suggesting that there may be some continuity in exposure processes from child to adult development. Future work should examine additional measures of exposure process, such as psychophysiological arousal during exposure, in youth. PMID:25052626

  1. DTI measures track and predict motor function outcomes in stroke rehabilitation utilizing BCI technology.

    PubMed

    Song, Jie; Nair, Veena A; Young, Brittany M; Walton, Leo M; Nigogosyan, Zack; Remsik, Alexander; Tyler, Mitchell E; Farrar-Edwards, Dorothy; Caldera, Kristin E; Sattin, Justin A; Williams, Justin C; Prabhakaran, Vivek

    2015-01-01

    Tracking and predicting motor outcomes is important in determining effective stroke rehabilitation strategies. Diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) allows for evaluation of the underlying structural integrity of brain white matter tracts and may serve as a potential biomarker for tracking and predicting motor recovery. In this study, we examined the longitudinal relationship between DTI measures of the posterior limb of the internal capsule (PLIC) and upper-limb motor outcomes in 13 stroke patients (median 20-month post-stroke) who completed up to 15 sessions of intervention using brain-computer interface (BCI) technology. Patients' upper-limb motor outcomes and PLIC DTI measures including fractional anisotropy (FA), axial diffusivity (AD), radial diffusivity (RD), and mean diffusivity (MD) were assessed longitudinally at four time points: pre-, mid-, immediately post- and 1-month-post intervention. DTI measures and ratios of each DTI measure comparing the ipsilesional and contralesional PLIC were correlated with patients' motor outcomes to examine the relationship between structural integrity of the PLIC and patients' motor recovery. We found that lower diffusivity and higher FA values of the ipsilesional PLIC were significantly correlated with better upper-limb motor function. Baseline DTI ratios were significantly correlated with motor outcomes measured immediately post and 1-month-post BCI interventions. A few patients achieved improvements in motor recovery meeting the minimum clinically important difference (MCID). These findings suggest that upper-limb motor recovery in stroke patients receiving BCI interventions relates to the microstructural status of the PLIC. Lower diffusivity and higher FA measures of the ipsilesional PLIC contribute toward better motor recovery in the stroke-affected upper-limb. DTI-derived measures may be a clinically useful biomarker in tracking and predicting motor recovery in stroke patients receiving BCI interventions.

  2. Comparison of Models for Predicting Outcomes in Patients with Coronary Artery Disease Focusing on Microsimulation

    PubMed Central

    Amiri, Masoud; Kelishadi, Roya

    2012-01-01

    Background: Physicians have difficulty to subjectively estimate the cardiovascular risk of their patients. Using an estimate of global cardiovascular risk could be more relevant to guide decisions than using binary representation (presence or absence) of risk factors data. The main aim of the paper is to compare different models of predicting the progress of a coronary artery diseases (CAD) to help the decision making of physician. Methods: There are different standard models for predicting risk factors such as models based on logistic regression model, Cox regression model, dynamic logistic regression model, and simulation models such as Markov model and microsimulation model. Each model has its own application which can or cannot use by physicians to make a decision on treatment of each patient. Results: There are five main common models for predicting of outcomes, including models based on logistic regression model (for short-term outcomes), Cox regression model (for intermediate-term outcomes), dynamic logistic regression model, and simulation models such as Markov and microsimulation models (for long-term outcomes). The advantages and disadvantages of these models have been discussed and summarized. Conclusion: Given the complex medical decisions that physicians face in everyday practice, the multiple interrelated factors that play a role in choosing the optimal treatment, and the continuously accumulating new evidence on determinants of outcome and treatment options for CAD, physicians may potentially benefit from a clinical decision support system that accounts for all these considerations. The microsimulation model could provide cardiologists, researchers, and medical students a user-friendly software, which can be used as an intelligent interventional simulator. PMID:22973481

  3. Mental health predicts better academic outcomes: a longitudinal study of elementary school students in Chile.

    PubMed

    Murphy, J Michael; Guzmán, Javier; McCarthy, Alyssa E; Squicciarini, Ana María; George, Myriam; Canenguez, Katia M; Dunn, Erin C; Baer, Lee; Simonsohn, Ariela; Smoller, Jordan W; Jellinek, Michael S

    2015-04-01

    The world's largest school-based mental health program, Habilidades para la Vida [Skills for Life (SFL)], has been operating on a national scale in Chile for 15 years. SFL's activities include using standardized measures to screen elementary school students and providing preventive workshops to students at risk for mental health problems. This paper used SFL's data on 37,397 students who were in first grade in 2009 and third grade in 2011 to ascertain whether first grade mental health predicted subsequent academic achievement and whether remission of mental health problems predicted improved academic outcomes. Results showed that mental health was a significant predictor of future academic performance and that, overall, students whose mental health improved between first and third grade made better academic progress than students whose mental health did not improve or worsened. Our findings suggest that school-based mental health programs like SFL may help improve students' academic outcomes. PMID:24771270

  4. Prediction of outcome in traumatic brain injury patients using long-term qEEG features.

    PubMed

    Mikola, Annika; Ratsep, Indrek; Sarkela, Mika; Lipping, Tarmo

    2015-08-01

    Treatment of patients suffering from severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) commonly involves sedation and mechanical ventilation during prolonged stay in the intensive care unit. Continuous EEG is often monitored in these patients to detect epileptic seizures. It has also been suggested that EEG has prognostic value regarding the outcome of the treatment. In this study the ability of 186 qEEG features to predict the outcome of the treatment of TBI patients is assessed. The features are based on the power spectrum of the EEG. The data underlying the study contains long term (over 24 h) recordings from 20 patients treated in the postoperative intensive care unit of the North Estonian Medical Center. 12 qEEG features were found to have predictive value when evaluated by calculating the area under the receiver operating curve constructed from feature probabilities. PMID:26736563

  5. Mental health predicts better academic outcomes: A longitudinal study of elementary school students in Chile

    PubMed Central

    Murphy, J. Michael; Guzmán, Javier; McCarthy, Alyssa; Squicciarini, Ana María; George, Myriam; Canenguez, Katia; Dunn, Erin C.; Baer, Lee; Simonsohn, Ariela; Smoller, Jordan W.; Jellinek, Michael

    2015-01-01

    The world’s largest school-based mental health program, Habilidades para la Vida [Skills for Life, SFL], has been operating at a national scale in Chile for fifteen years. SFL’s activities include using standardized measures to screen elementary school students and providing preventive workshops to students at risk for mental health problems. This paper used SFL’s data on 37,397 students who were in first grade in 2009 and third grade in 2011 to ascertain whether first grade mental health predicted subsequent academic achievement and whether remission of mental health problems predicted improved academic outcomes. Results showed that mental health was a significant predictor of future academic performance and that, overall, students whose mental health improved between first and third grade made better academic progress than students whose mental health did not improve or worsened. Our findings suggest that school-based mental health programs like SFL may help improve students’ academic outcomes. PMID:24771270

  6. Mental health predicts better academic outcomes: a longitudinal study of elementary school students in Chile.

    PubMed

    Murphy, J Michael; Guzmán, Javier; McCarthy, Alyssa E; Squicciarini, Ana María; George, Myriam; Canenguez, Katia M; Dunn, Erin C; Baer, Lee; Simonsohn, Ariela; Smoller, Jordan W; Jellinek, Michael S

    2015-04-01

    The world's largest school-based mental health program, Habilidades para la Vida [Skills for Life (SFL)], has been operating on a national scale in Chile for 15 years. SFL's activities include using standardized measures to screen elementary school students and providing preventive workshops to students at risk for mental health problems. This paper used SFL's data on 37,397 students who were in first grade in 2009 and third grade in 2011 to ascertain whether first grade mental health predicted subsequent academic achievement and whether remission of mental health problems predicted improved academic outcomes. Results showed that mental health was a significant predictor of future academic performance and that, overall, students whose mental health improved between first and third grade made better academic progress than students whose mental health did not improve or worsened. Our findings suggest that school-based mental health programs like SFL may help improve students' academic outcomes.

  7. External validation of the ability of the DRAGON score to predict outcome after thrombolysis treatment.

    PubMed

    Ovesen, C; Christensen, A; Nielsen, J K; Christensen, H

    2013-11-01

    Easy-to-perform and valid assessment scales for the effect of thrombolysis are essential in hyperacute stroke settings. Because of this we performed an external validation of the DRAGON scale proposed by Strbian et al. in a Danish cohort. All patients treated with intravenous recombinant plasminogen activator between 2009 and 2011 were included. Upon admission all patients underwent physical and neurological examination using the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale along with non-contrast CT scans and CT angiography. Patients were followed up through the Outpatient Clinic and their modified Rankin Scale (mRS) was assessed after 3 months. Three hundred and three patients were included in the analysis. The DRAGON scale proved to have a good discriminative ability for predicting highly unfavourable outcome (mRS 5-6) (area under the curve-receiver operating characteristic [AUC-ROC]: 0.89; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.81-0.96; p<0.001) and good outcome (mRS 0-2) (AUC-ROC: 0.79; 95% CI 0.73-0.85; p<0.001). When only patients with M1 occlusions were selected the DRAGON scale provided good discriminative capability (AUC-ROC: 0.89; 95% CI 0.78-1.0; p=0.003) for highly unfavourable outcome. We confirmed the validity of the DRAGON scale in predicting outcome after thrombolysis treatment.

  8. Remote health monitoring: predicting outcome success based on contextual features for cardiovascular disease.

    PubMed

    Alshurafa, Nabil; Eastwood, Jo-Ann; Pourhomayoun, Mohammad; Liu, Jason J; Sarrafzadeh, Majid

    2014-01-01

    Current studies have produced a plethora of remote health monitoring (RHM) systems designed to enhance the care of patients with chronic diseases. Many RHM systems are designed to improve patient risk factors for cardiovascular disease, including physiological parameters such as body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference, and lipid profiles such as low density lipoprotein (LDL) and high density lipoprotein (HDL). There are several patient characteristics that could be determining factors for a patient's RHM outcome success, but these characteristics have been largely unidentified. In this paper, we analyze results from an RHM system deployed in a six month Women's Heart Health study of 90 patients, and apply advanced feature selection and machine learning algorithms to identify patients' key baseline contextual features and build effective prediction models that help determine RHM outcome success. We introduce Wanda-CVD, a smartphone-based RHM system designed to help participants with cardiovascular disease risk factors by motivating participants through wireless coaching using feedback and prompts as social support. We analyze key contextual features that secure positive patient outcomes in both physiological parameters and lipid profiles. Results from the Women's Heart Health study show that health threat of heart disease, quality of life, family history, stress factors, social support, and anxiety at baseline all help predict patient RHM outcome success. PMID:25570321

  9. Remote health monitoring: predicting outcome success based on contextual features for cardiovascular disease.

    PubMed

    Alshurafa, Nabil; Eastwood, Jo-Ann; Pourhomayoun, Mohammad; Liu, Jason J; Sarrafzadeh, Majid

    2014-01-01

    Current studies have produced a plethora of remote health monitoring (RHM) systems designed to enhance the care of patients with chronic diseases. Many RHM systems are designed to improve patient risk factors for cardiovascular disease, including physiological parameters such as body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference, and lipid profiles such as low density lipoprotein (LDL) and high density lipoprotein (HDL). There are several patient characteristics that could be determining factors for a patient's RHM outcome success, but these characteristics have been largely unidentified. In this paper, we analyze results from an RHM system deployed in a six month Women's Heart Health study of 90 patients, and apply advanced feature selection and machine learning algorithms to identify patients' key baseline contextual features and build effective prediction models that help determine RHM outcome success. We introduce Wanda-CVD, a smartphone-based RHM system designed to help participants with cardiovascular disease risk factors by motivating participants through wireless coaching using feedback and prompts as social support. We analyze key contextual features that secure positive patient outcomes in both physiological parameters and lipid profiles. Results from the Women's Heart Health study show that health threat of heart disease, quality of life, family history, stress factors, social support, and anxiety at baseline all help predict patient RHM outcome success.

  10. Extracorporeal shock-wave therapy for chronic lateral tennis elbow--prediction of outcome by imaging.

    PubMed

    Maier, M; Steinborn, M; Schmitz, C; Stäbler, A; Köhler, S; Veihelmann, A; Pfahler, M; Refior, H J

    2001-07-01

    Today the clinical use of extracorporeal shockwave application (ESWA) for the treatment of lateral tennis elbow is hampered by the lack of results from randomized controlled trials and of predictive parameters of clinical outcome. The present prospective study aimed to provide the latter by means of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Twenty-three female and 19 male patients with unilateral chronic tennis elbow of the dominant site were clinically examined before and after repetitive low-energy ESWA. MRI was performed before ESWA to evaluate signal intensity changes or contrast enhancement of the common extensor tendon and the lateral epicondyle. After ESWA (mean follow-up period 18.6 months for all patients), clinical evaluation showed a significantly better mean clinical performance after ESWA than before treatment. Interestingly, male patients showed a significantly better mean clinical performance after ESWA than female patients, and male and female patients differed significantly in the signal intensity of the common extension tendon cross-section and tendon thickening on MRI. For female patients, MRI scans could be applied for predicting a positive clinical outcome of ESWA. This study reports the first indication of predictability of positive clinical outcome of the treatment of chronic lateral tennis elbow by ESWA using imaging prior to treatment. This may serve as an important step towards overcoming the therapeutic nihilism with respect to the non-operative management of this condition recently in the literature.

  11. Cortical surface biomarkers for predicting cognitive outcomes using group l2,1 norm.

    PubMed

    Yan, Jingwen; Li, Taiyong; Wang, Hua; Huang, Heng; Wan, Jing; Nho, Kwangsik; Kim, Sungeun; Risacher, Shannon L; Saykin, Andrew J; Shen, Li

    2015-01-01

    Regression models have been widely studied to investigate the prediction power of neuroimaging measures as biomarkers for inferring cognitive outcomes in the Alzheimer's disease study. Most of these models ignore the interrelated structures either within neuroimaging measures or between cognitive outcomes, and thus may have limited power to yield optimal solutions. To address this issue, we propose to use a new sparse multitask learning model called Group-Sparse Multi-task Regression and Feature Selection (G-SMuRFS) and demonstrate its effectiveness by examining the predictive power of detailed cortical thickness measures toward 3 types of cognitive scores in a large cohort. G-SMuRFS proposes a group-level l2,1-norm strategy to group relevant features together in an anatomically meaningful manner and use this prior knowledge to guide the learning process. This approach also takes into account the correlation among cognitive outcomes for building a more appropriate predictive model. Compared with traditional methods, G-SMuRFS not only demonstrates a superior performance but also identifies a small set of surface markers that are biologically meaningful.

  12. Cortical surface biomarkers for predicting cognitive outcomes using group l2,1 norm.

    PubMed

    Yan, Jingwen; Li, Taiyong; Wang, Hua; Huang, Heng; Wan, Jing; Nho, Kwangsik; Kim, Sungeun; Risacher, Shannon L; Saykin, Andrew J; Shen, Li

    2015-01-01

    Regression models have been widely studied to investigate the prediction power of neuroimaging measures as biomarkers for inferring cognitive outcomes in the Alzheimer's disease study. Most of these models ignore the interrelated structures either within neuroimaging measures or between cognitive outcomes, and thus may have limited power to yield optimal solutions. To address this issue, we propose to use a new sparse multitask learning model called Group-Sparse Multi-task Regression and Feature Selection (G-SMuRFS) and demonstrate its effectiveness by examining the predictive power of detailed cortical thickness measures toward 3 types of cognitive scores in a large cohort. G-SMuRFS proposes a group-level l2,1-norm strategy to group relevant features together in an anatomically meaningful manner and use this prior knowledge to guide the learning process. This approach also takes into account the correlation among cognitive outcomes for building a more appropriate predictive model. Compared with traditional methods, G-SMuRFS not only demonstrates a superior performance but also identifies a small set of surface markers that are biologically meaningful. PMID:25444599

  13. Parental ADHD Predicts Child and Parent Outcomes Parental Friendship Coaching Treatment

    PubMed Central

    Griggs, Marissa Swaim; Mikami, Amori Yee

    2011-01-01

    Objective This study investigated the impact of parental ADHD symptoms on the peer relationships and parent-child interaction outcomes of children with ADHD among families completing a randomized-controlled trial of Parental Friendship Coaching (PFC) relative to control families. Method Participants were 62 children with ADHD (42 boys; ages 6–10) and their parents. Approximately half of the families received PFC (a 3-month parent training intervention targeting the peer relationships of children with ADHD) and the remainder represented a no-treatment control group. Results Parental inattention predicted equivalent declines in children’s peer acceptance in both treatment and control families. However, treatment amplified differences between parents with high versus low ADHD symptoms for some outcomes: Control families declined in functioning regardless of parents’ symptom levels. However, high parental inattention predicted increased child peer rejection and high parental inattention and impulsivity predicted decreased parental facilitation among treated families (indicating reduced treatment response). Low parental symptoms among treated families were associated with improved functioning in these areas. For other outcomes, treatment attenuated differences between parents with high versus low ADHD symptoms: Among control parents, high parental impulsivity was associated with increasing criticism over time whereas all treated parents evidenced reduced criticism regardless of symptom levels. Follow-up analyses indicated that the parents experiencing poor treatment response are likely those with clinical levels of ADHD symptoms. Conclusions Results underscore the need to consider parental ADHD in parent training treatments for children with ADHD. PMID:22115144

  14. Fucosyltransferase 2 non-secretor and low secretor status predicts severe outcomes in premature infants

    PubMed Central

    Morrow, Ardythe L.; Meinzen-Derr, Jareen; Huang, Pengwei; Schibler, Kurt R.; Cahill, Tanya; Keddache, Mehdi; Kallapur, Suhas G.; Newburg, David S.; Tabangin, Meredith; Warner, Barbara B.; Jiang, Xi

    2010-01-01

    Objective To investigate secretor gene fucosyltransferase2 (FUT2) polymorphism and secretor phenotype in relation to outcomes of prematurity. Study design Study infants were ≤32 weeks gestational age. Secretor genotype was determined from salivary DNA. Secretor phenotype was measured by H antigen, the carbohydrate produced by secretor gene enzymes, in saliva samples collected on day 9±5. The optimal predictive cut-point in salivary H values was identified by Classification and Regression Tree analysis. Study outcomes were death, necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC, Bell’s stage II/III), and confirmed sepsis. Results There were 410 study infants, 26 deaths, 30 cases of NEC, and 96 cases of sepsis. Analyzed by genotype, 13% of 95 non-secretors, 5% of 203 heterozygotes, and 2% of 96 infants who were secretor dominant died (p=0.01). Analyzed by phenotype, 15% of 135 infants with low secretor phenotype died, compared with 2% of 248 infants with high secretor phenotype (predictive value=76%, p<0.001). Low secretor phenotype was associated (P<.05) with NEC, and non-secretor genotype was associated (P=.05) with gram negative sepsis. Secretor status remained significant after controlling for multiple clinical factors. Conclusions Secretor genotype and phenotype may provide strong predictive biomarkers of adverse outcomes in premature infants. PMID:21256510

  15. Altruistic traits are predicted by neural responses to monetary outcomes for self vs charity.

    PubMed

    San Martín, René; Kwak, Youngbin; Pearson, John M; Woldorff, Marty G; Huettel, Scott A

    2016-06-01

    Human altruism is often expressed through charitable donation-supporting a cause that benefits others in society, at cost to oneself. The underlying mechanisms of this other-regarding behavior remain imperfectly understood. By recording event-related-potential (ERP) measures of brain activity from human participants during a social gambling task, we identified markers of differential responses to receipt of monetary outcomes for oneself vs for a charitable cause. We focused our ERP analyses on the frontocentral feedback-related negativity (FRN) and three subcomponents of the attention-related P300 (P3) brain wave: the frontocentral P2 and P3a and the parietal P3b. The FRN distinguished between gains and losses for both self and charity outcomes. Importantly, this effect of outcome valence was greater for self than charity for both groups and was independent of two altruism-related measures: participants' pre-declared intended donations and the actual donations resulting from their choices. In contrast, differences in P3 subcomponents for outcomes for self vs charity strongly predicted both of our laboratory measures of altruism-as well as self-reported engagement in real-life altruistic behaviors. These results indicate that individual differences in altruism are linked to individual differences in the relative deployment of attention (as indexed by the P3) toward outcomes affecting other people. PMID:27030510

  16. Does impulsivity predict outcome in treatment for binge eating disorder? A multimodal investigation.

    PubMed

    Manasse, Stephanie M; Espel, Hallie M; Schumacher, Leah M; Kerrigan, Stephanie G; Zhang, Fengqing; Forman, Evan M; Juarascio, Adrienne S

    2016-10-01

    Multiple dimensions of impulsivity (e.g., affect-driven impulsivity, impulsive inhibition - both general and food-specific, and impulsive decision-making) are associated with binge eating pathology cross-sectionally, yet the literature on whether impulsivity predicts treatment outcome is limited. The present pilot study explored impulsivity-related predictors of 20-week outcome in a small open trial (n = 17) of a novel treatment for binge eating disorder. Overall, dimensions of impulsivity related to emotions (i.e., negative urgency) and food cues emerged as predictors of treatment outcomes (i.e., binge eating frequency and global eating pathology as measured by the Eating Disorders Examination), while more general measures of impulsivity were statistically unrelated to global eating pathology or binge frequency. Specifically, those with higher levels of negative urgency at baseline experienced slower and less pronounced benefit from treatment, and those with higher food-specific impulsivity had more severe global eating pathology at baseline that was consistent at post-treatment and follow-up. These preliminary findings suggest that patients high in negative urgency and with poor response inhibition to food cues may benefit from augmentation of existing treatments to achieve optimal outcomes. Future research will benefit from replication with a larger sample, parsing out the role of different dimensions of impulsivity in treatment outcome for eating disorders, and identifying how treatment can be improved to accommodate higher levels of baseline impulsivity. PMID:27230611

  17. Altruistic traits are predicted by neural responses to monetary outcomes for self vs charity.

    PubMed

    San Martín, René; Kwak, Youngbin; Pearson, John M; Woldorff, Marty G; Huettel, Scott A

    2016-06-01

    Human altruism is often expressed through charitable donation-supporting a cause that benefits others in society, at cost to oneself. The underlying mechanisms of this other-regarding behavior remain imperfectly understood. By recording event-related-potential (ERP) measures of brain activity from human participants during a social gambling task, we identified markers of differential responses to receipt of monetary outcomes for oneself vs for a charitable cause. We focused our ERP analyses on the frontocentral feedback-related negativity (FRN) and three subcomponents of the attention-related P300 (P3) brain wave: the frontocentral P2 and P3a and the parietal P3b. The FRN distinguished between gains and losses for both self and charity outcomes. Importantly, this effect of outcome valence was greater for self than charity for both groups and was independent of two altruism-related measures: participants' pre-declared intended donations and the actual donations resulting from their choices. In contrast, differences in P3 subcomponents for outcomes for self vs charity strongly predicted both of our laboratory measures of altruism-as well as self-reported engagement in real-life altruistic behaviors. These results indicate that individual differences in altruism are linked to individual differences in the relative deployment of attention (as indexed by the P3) toward outcomes affecting other people.

  18. Does impulsivity predict outcome in treatment for binge eating disorder? A multimodal investigation.

    PubMed

    Manasse, Stephanie M; Espel, Hallie M; Schumacher, Leah M; Kerrigan, Stephanie G; Zhang, Fengqing; Forman, Evan M; Juarascio, Adrienne S

    2016-10-01

    Multiple dimensions of impulsivity (e.g., affect-driven impulsivity, impulsive inhibition - both general and food-specific, and impulsive decision-making) are associated with binge eating pathology cross-sectionally, yet the literature on whether impulsivity predicts treatment outcome is limited. The present pilot study explored impulsivity-related predictors of 20-week outcome in a small open trial (n = 17) of a novel treatment for binge eating disorder. Overall, dimensions of impulsivity related to emotions (i.e., negative urgency) and food cues emerged as predictors of treatment outcomes (i.e., binge eating frequency and global eating pathology as measured by the Eating Disorders Examination), while more general measures of impulsivity were statistically unrelated to global eating pathology or binge frequency. Specifically, those with higher levels of negative urgency at baseline experienced slower and less pronounced benefit from treatment, and those with higher food-specific impulsivity had more severe global eating pathology at baseline that was consistent at post-treatment and follow-up. These preliminary findings suggest that patients high in negative urgency and with poor response inhibition to food cues may benefit from augmentation of existing treatments to achieve optimal outcomes. Future research will benefit from replication with a larger sample, parsing out the role of different dimensions of impulsivity in treatment outcome for eating disorders, and identifying how treatment can be improved to accommodate higher levels of baseline impulsivity.

  19. Validity of the Medical College Admission Test for predicting MD-PhD student outcomes.

    PubMed

    Bills, James L; VanHouten, Jacob; Grundy, Michelle M; Chalkley, Roger; Dermody, Terence S

    2016-03-01

    The Medical College Admission Test (MCAT) is a quantitative metric used by MD and MD-PhD programs to evaluate applicants for admission. This study assessed the validity of the MCAT in predicting training performance measures and career outcomes for MD-PhD students at a single institution. The study population consisted of 153 graduates of the Vanderbilt Medical Scientist Training Program (combined MD-PhD program) who matriculated between 1963 and 2003 and completed dual-degree training. This population was divided into three cohorts corresponding to the version of the MCAT taken at the time of application. Multivariable regression (logistic for binary outcomes and linear for continuous outcomes) was used to analyze factors associated with outcome measures. The MCAT score and undergraduate GPA (uGPA) were treated as independent variables; medical and graduate school grades, time-to-PhD defense, USMLE scores, publication number, and career outcome were dependent variables. For cohort 1 (1963-1977), MCAT score was not associated with any assessed outcome, although uGPA was associated with medical school preclinical GPA and graduate school GPA (gsGPA). For cohort 2 (1978-1991), MCAT score was associated with USMLE Step II score and inversely correlated with publication number, and uGPA was associated with preclinical GPA (mspGPA) and clinical GPA (mscGPA). For cohort 3 (1992-2003), the MCAT score was associated with mscGPA, and uGPA was associated with gsGPA. Overall, MCAT score and uGPA were inconsistent or weak predictors of training metrics and career outcomes for this population of MD-PhD students.

  20. Usefulness of Midregional Proadrenomedullin to Predict Poor Outcome in Patients with Community Acquired Pneumonia

    PubMed Central

    Gordo-Remartínez, Susana; Sevillano-Fernández, José A.; Álvarez-Sala, Luis A.; Andueza-Lillo, Juan A.; de Miguel-Yanes, José M.

    2015-01-01

    Background midregional proadrenomedullin (MR-proADM) is a prognostic biomarker in patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). We sought to confirm whether MR-proADM added to Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI) improves the potential prognostic value of PSI alone, and tested to what extent this combination could be useful in predicting poor outcome of patients with CAP in an Emergency Department (ED). Methods Consecutive patients diagnosed with CAP were enrolled in this prospective, single-centre, observational study. We analyzed the ability of MR-proADM added to PSI to predict poor outcome using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, logistic regression and risk reclassification and comparing it with the ability of PSI alone. The primary outcome was “poor outcome”, defined as the incidence of an adverse event (ICU admission, hospital readmission, or mortality at 30 days after CAP diagnosis). Results 226 patients were included; 33 patients (14.6%) reached primary outcome. To predict primary outcome the highest area under curve (AUC) was found for PSI (0.74 [0.64-0.85]), which was not significantly higher than for MR-proADM (AUC 0.72 [0.63-0.81, p > 0.05]). The combination of PSI and MR-proADM failed to improve the predictive potential of PSI alone (AUC 0.75 [0.65-0.85, p=0.56]). Ten patients were appropriately reclassified when the combined PSI and MR-proADM model was used as compared with the model of PSI alone. Net reclassification improvement (NRI) index was statistically significant (7.69%, p = 0.03) with an improvement percentage of 3.03% (p = 0.32) for adverse event, and 4.66% (P = 0.02) for no adverse event. Conclusion MR-proADM in combination with PSI may be helpful in individual risk stratification for short-term poor outcome of CAP patients, allowing a better reclassification of patients compared with PSI alone. PMID:26030588

  1. Early prediction of poor outcome in patients with acute asthma in the emergency room.

    PubMed

    Mallmann, F; Fernandes, A K; Avila, E M; Nogueira, F L; Steinhorst, A M P; Saucedo, D Z; Machado, F J; Raymundi, M G; Dalcin, P T R; Menna Barreto, S S

    2002-01-01

    Early identification of patients who need hospitalization or patients who should be discharged would be helpful for the management of acute asthma in the emergency room. The objective of the present study was to examine the clinical and pulmonary functional measures used during the first hour of assessment of acute asthma in the emergency room in order to predict the outcome. We evaluated 88 patients. The inclusion criteria were age between 12 and 55 years, forced expiratory volume in the first second below 50% of predicted value, and no history of chronic disease or pregnancy. After baseline evaluation, all patients were treated with 2.5 mg albuterol delivered by nebulization every 20 min in the first hour and 60 mg of intravenous methylprednisolone. Patients were reevaluated after 60 min of treatment. Sixty-five patients (73.9%) were successfully treated and discharged from the emergency room (good responders), and 23 (26.1%) were hospitalized or were treated and discharged with relapse within 10 days (poor responders). A predictive index was developed: peak expiratory flow rates after 1 h < or =0% of predicted values and accessory muscle use after 1 h. The index ranged from 0 to 2. An index of 1 or higher presented a sensitivity of 74.0, a specificity of 69.0, a positive predictive value of 46.0, and a negative predictive value of 88.0. It was possible to predict outcome in the first hour of management of acute asthma in the emergency room when the index score was 0 or 2.

  2. Prediction of future labour market outcome in a cohort of long-term sick- listed Danes

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Targeted interventions for the long-term sick-listed may prevent permanent exclusion from the labour force. We aimed to develop a prediction method for identifying high risk groups for continued or recurrent long-term sickness absence, unemployment, or disability among persons on long-term sick leave. Methods We obtained individual characteristics and follow-up data from the Danish Register of Sickness Absence Compensation Benefits and Social Transfer Payments (RSS) during 2004 to 2010 for 189,279 Danes who experienced a period of long-term sickness absence (4+ weeks). In a learning data set, statistical prediction methods were built using logistic regression and a discrete event simulation approach for a one year prediction horizon. Personalized risk profiles were obtained for five outcomes: employment, unemployment, recurrent sickness absence, continuous long-term sickness absence, and early retirement from the labour market. Predictor variables included gender, age, socio-economic position, job type, chronic disease status, history of sickness absence, and prior history of unemployment. Separate models were built for times of economic growth (2005–2007) and times of recession (2008–2010). The accuracy of the prediction models was assessed with analyses of Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves and the Brier score in an independent validation data set. Results In comparison with a null model which ignored the predictor variables, logistic regression achieved only moderate prediction accuracy for the five outcome states. Results obtained with discrete event simulation were comparable with logistic regression. Conclusions Only moderate prediction accuracy could be achieved using the selected information from the Danish register RSS. Other variables need to be included in order to establish a prediction method which provides more accurate risk profiles for long-term sick-listed persons. PMID:24885866

  3. Scoring systems for outcome prediction in patients with perforated peptic ulcer

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Patients with perforated peptic ulcer (PPU) often present with acute, severe illness that carries a high risk for morbidity and mortality. Mortality ranges from 3-40% and several prognostic scoring systems have been suggested. The aim of this study was to review the available scoring systems for PPU patients, and to assert if there is evidence to prefer one to the other. Material and methods We searched PubMed for the mesh terms “perforated peptic ulcer”, “scoring systems”, “risk factors”, ”outcome prediction”, “mortality”, ”morbidity” and the combinations of these terms. In addition to relevant scores introduced in the past (e.g. Boey score), we included recent studies published between January 2000 and December 2012) that reported on scoring systems for prediction of morbidity and mortality in PPU patients. Results A total of ten different scoring systems used to predict outcome in PPU patients were identified; the Boey score, the Hacettepe score, the Jabalpur score the peptic ulcer perforation (PULP) score, the ASA score, the Charlson comorbidity index, the sepsis score, the Mannheim Peritonitis Index (MPI), the Acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II), the simplified acute physiology score II (SAPS II), the Mortality probability models II (MPM II), the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity physical sub-score (POSSUM-phys score). Only four of the scores were specifically constructed for PPU patients. In five studies the accuracy of outcome prediction of different scoring systems was evaluated by receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC) analysis, and the corresponding area under the curve (AUC) among studies compared. Considerable variation in performance both between different scores and between different studies was found, with the lowest and highest AUC reported between 0.63 and 0.98, respectively. Conclusion While the Boey score and the ASA score

  4. Prediction of Functional Outcome in Individuals at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis

    PubMed Central

    Carrión, Ricardo E.; McLaughlin, Danielle; Goldberg, Terry E.; Auther, Andrea M.; Olsen, Ruth H.; Olvet, Doreen M.; Correll, Christoph U.; Cornblatt, Barbara A.

    2014-01-01

    Importance A major public health concern associated with schizophrenia and psychotic disorders is the long-term disability that involves impaired cognition, lack of social support, and an inability to function independently in the community. A critical goal of early detection and intervention studies in psychosis is therefore to understand the factors leading to this often profound impairment. Objective To develop a predictive model of functional (social and role) outcome in a clinical high-risk sample for psychosis. Design Prospective, naturalistic, longitudinal 3- to 5-year follow-up study. Setting The Recognition and Prevention Program in New York, a research clinic located in the Zucker Hillside Hospital in New York. Participants One hundred one treatment-seeking patients at clinical high risk for psychosis. Ninety-two (91%) were followed up prospectively for a mean (SD) of 3 (1.6) years. Intervention Neurocognitive and clinical assessment. Main Outcomes and Measures The primary outcome variables were social and role functioning at the last follow-up visit. Results Poor social outcome was predicted by reduced processing speed (odds ratio [OR], 1.38; 95% CI, 1.050-1.823; P = .02), impaired social functioning at baseline (OR, 1.85; 95% CI, 1.258-2.732; P = .002), and total disorganized symptoms (OR, 5.06; 95% CI, 1.548-16.527; P = .007). Reduced performance on tests for verbal memory (OR, 1.74; 95% CI, 1.169-2.594; P = .006), role functioning at baseline (OR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.053-1.711; P = .02), and motor disturbances (OR, 1.77; 95% CI, 1.060-2.969; P = .03) predicted role outcome. The areas under the curve for the social and role prediction models were 0.824 (95% CI, 0.736-0.913; P < .001) and 0.77 (95% CI, 0.68-0.87; P < .001), respectively, demonstrating a high discriminative ability. In addition, poor functional outcomes were not entirely dependent on the development of psychosis, because 40.3% and 45.5% of nonconverters at clinical high risk had poor social

  5. Using predator-prey theory to predict outcomes of broadscale experiments to reduce apparent competition.

    PubMed

    Serrouya, Robert; Wittmann, Meike J; McLellan, Bruce N; Wittmer, Heiko U; Boutin, Stan

    2015-05-01

    Apparent competition is an important process influencing many ecological communities. We used predator-prey theory to predict outcomes of ecosystem experiments aimed at mitigating apparent competition by reducing primary prey. Simulations predicted declines in secondary prey following reductions in primary prey because predators consumed more secondary prey until predator numbers responded to reduced prey densities. Losses were exacerbated by a higher carrying capacity of primary prey and a longer lag time of the predator's numerical response, but a gradual reduction in primary prey was less detrimental to the secondary prey. We compared predictions against two field experiments where endangered woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) were victims of apparent competition. First, when deer (Odocoileus sp.) declined suddenly following a severe winter, cougar (Puma concolor) declined with a 1-2-year lag, yet in the interim more caribou were killed by cougars, and caribou populations declined by 40%. Second, when moose (Alces alces) were gradually reduced using a management experiment, wolf (Canis lupus) populations declined but did not shift consumption to caribou, and the largest caribou subpopulation stabilized. The observed contrasting outcomes of sudden versus gradual declines in primary prey supported theoretical predictions. Combining theory with field studies clarified how to manage communities to mitigate endangerment caused by apparent competition that affects many taxa. PMID:25905509

  6. MRI Biomarkers for Hand-Motor Outcome Prediction and Therapy Monitoring following Stroke

    PubMed Central

    Horn, U.; Grothe, M.

    2016-01-01

    Several biomarkers have been identified which enable a considerable prediction of hand-motor outcome after cerebral damage already in the subacute stage after stroke. We here review the value of MRI biomarkers in the evaluation of corticospinal integrity and functional recruitment of motor resources. Many of the functional imaging parameters are not feasible early after stroke or for patients with high impairment and low compliance. Whereas functional connectivity parameters have demonstrated varying results on their predictive value for hand-motor outcome, corticospinal integrity evaluation using structural imaging showed robust and high predictive power for patients with different levels of impairment. Although this is indicative of an overall higher value of structural imaging for prediction, we suggest that this variation be explained by structure and function relationships. To gain more insight into the recovering brain, not only one biomarker is needed. We rather argue for a combination of different measures in an algorithm to classify fine-graded subgroups of patients. Approaches to determining biomarkers have to take into account the established markers to provide further information on certain subgroups. Assessing the best therapy approaches for individual patients will become more feasible as these subgroups become specified in more detail. This procedure will help to considerably save resources and optimize neurorehabilitative therapy. PMID:27747108

  7. Using predator-prey theory to predict outcomes of broadscale experiments to reduce apparent competition.

    PubMed

    Serrouya, Robert; Wittmann, Meike J; McLellan, Bruce N; Wittmer, Heiko U; Boutin, Stan

    2015-05-01

    Apparent competition is an important process influencing many ecological communities. We used predator-prey theory to predict outcomes of ecosystem experiments aimed at mitigating apparent competition by reducing primary prey. Simulations predicted declines in secondary prey following reductions in primary prey because predators consumed more secondary prey until predator numbers responded to reduced prey densities. Losses were exacerbated by a higher carrying capacity of primary prey and a longer lag time of the predator's numerical response, but a gradual reduction in primary prey was less detrimental to the secondary prey. We compared predictions against two field experiments where endangered woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) were victims of apparent competition. First, when deer (Odocoileus sp.) declined suddenly following a severe winter, cougar (Puma concolor) declined with a 1-2-year lag, yet in the interim more caribou were killed by cougars, and caribou populations declined by 40%. Second, when moose (Alces alces) were gradually reduced using a management experiment, wolf (Canis lupus) populations declined but did not shift consumption to caribou, and the largest caribou subpopulation stabilized. The observed contrasting outcomes of sudden versus gradual declines in primary prey supported theoretical predictions. Combining theory with field studies clarified how to manage communities to mitigate endangerment caused by apparent competition that affects many taxa.

  8. Acute post-traumatic stress symptoms and age predict outcome in military blast concussion.

    PubMed

    Mac Donald, Christine L; Adam, Octavian R; Johnson, Ann M; Nelson, Elliot C; Werner, Nicole J; Rivet, Dennis J; Brody, David L

    2015-05-01

    High rates of adverse outcomes have been reported following blast-related concussive traumatic brain injury in US military personnel, but the extent to which such adverse outcomes can be predicted acutely after injury is unknown. We performed a prospective, observational study of US military personnel with blast-related concussive traumatic brain injury (n = 38) and controls (n = 34) enrolled between March and September 2012. Importantly all subjects returned to duty and did not require evacuation. Subjects were evaluated acutely 0-7 days after injury at two sites in Afghanistan and again 6-12 months later in the United States. Acute assessments revealed heightened post-concussive, post-traumatic stress, and depressive symptoms along with worse cognitive performance in subjects with traumatic brain injury. At 6-12 months follow-up, 63% of subjects with traumatic brain injury and 20% of controls had moderate overall disability. Subjects with traumatic brain injury showed more severe neurobehavioural, post-traumatic stress and depression symptoms along with more frequent cognitive performance deficits and more substantial headache impairment than control subjects. Logistic regression modelling using only acute measures identified that a diagnosis of traumatic brain injury, older age, and more severe post-traumatic stress symptoms provided a good prediction of later adverse global outcomes (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve = 0.84). Thus, US military personnel with concussive blast-related traumatic brain injury in Afghanistan who returned to duty still fared quite poorly on many clinical outcome measures 6-12 months after injury. Poor global outcome seems to be largely driven by psychological health measures, age, and traumatic brain injury status. The effects of early interventions and longer term implications of these findings are unknown.

  9. Fragmentation and high entropy of neonatal experience predict adolescent emotional outcome

    PubMed Central

    Molet, J; Heins, K; Zhuo, X; Mei, Y T; Regev, L; Baram, T Z; Stern, H

    2016-01-01

    Vulnerability to emotional disorders including depression derives from interactions between genes and environment, especially during sensitive developmental periods. Across evolution, maternal care is a key source of environmental sensory signals to the developing brain, and a vast body of work has linked quantitative and qualitative aspects of maternal care to emotional outcome in children and animals. However, the fundamental properties of maternal signals, that promote advantageous vs pathological outcomes in the offspring, are unknown and have been a topic of intense study. We studied emotional outcomes of adolescent rats reared under routine or impoverished environments, and used mathematical approaches to analyze the nurturing behaviors of the dams. Unexpectedly, whereas the quantity and typical qualities of maternal care behaviors were indistinguishable in the two environments, their patterns and rhythms differed drastically and influenced emotional outcomes. Specifically, unpredictable, fragmented maternal care patterns translated into high-entropy rates of sensory signals to the offspring in the impoverished cages. During adolescence, these offspring had significant reductions in sucrose preference and in peer-play, two independent measures of the ability to experience pleasure. This adolescent anhedonia, often a harbinger of later depression, was not accompanied by measures of anxiety or helplessness. Dopaminergic pleasure circuits underlying anhedonia are engaged by predictable sequences of events, and predictable sensory signals during neonatal periods may be critical for their maturation. Conversely, unpredictability maternal-derived signals may disrupt these developmental processes, provoking anhedonia. In sum, high-entropy and fragmented patterns of maternal-derived sensory input to the developing brain predicts, and might promote, the development of anhedonia in rodents, with potential clinical implications. PMID:26731439

  10. Deep learning for tissue microarray image-based outcome prediction in patients with colorectal cancer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bychkov, Dmitrii; Turkki, Riku; Haglund, Caj; Linder, Nina; Lundin, Johan

    2016-03-01

    Recent advances in computer vision enable increasingly accurate automated pattern classification. In the current study we evaluate whether a convolutional neural network (CNN) can be trained to predict disease outcome in patients with colorectal cancer based on images of tumor tissue microarray samples. We compare the prognostic accuracy of CNN features extracted from the whole, unsegmented tissue microarray spot image, with that of CNN features extracted from the epithelial and non-epithelial compartments, respectively. The prognostic accuracy of visually assessed histologic grade is used as a reference. The image data set consists of digitized hematoxylin-eosin (H and E) stained tissue microarray samples obtained from 180 patients with colorectal cancer. The patient samples represent a variety of histological grades, have data available on a series of clinicopathological variables including long-term outcome and ground truth annotations performed by experts. The CNN features extracted from images of the epithelial tissue compartment significantly predicted outcome (hazard ratio (HR) 2.08; CI95% 1.04-4.16; area under the curve (AUC) 0.66) in a test set of 60 patients, as compared to the CNN features extracted from unsegmented images (HR 1.67; CI95% 0.84-3.31, AUC 0.57) and visually assessed histologic grade (HR 1.96; CI95% 0.99-3.88, AUC 0.61). As a conclusion, a deep-learning classifier can be trained to predict outcome of colorectal cancer based on images of H and E stained tissue microarray samples and the CNN features extracted from the epithelial compartment only resulted in a prognostic discrimination comparable to that of visually determined histologic grade.

  11. Automated prediction of tissue outcome after acute ischemic stroke in computed tomography perfusion images

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vos, Pieter C.; Bennink, Edwin; de Jong, Hugo; Velthuis, Birgitta K.; Viergever, Max A.; Dankbaar, Jan Willem

    2015-03-01

    Assessment of the extent of cerebral damage on admission in patients with acute ischemic stroke could play an important role in treatment decision making. Computed tomography perfusion (CTP) imaging can be used to determine the extent of damage. However, clinical application is hindered by differences among vendors and used methodology. As a result, threshold based methods and visual assessment of CTP images has not yet shown to be useful in treatment decision making and predicting clinical outcome. Preliminary results in MR studies have shown the benefit of using supervised classifiers for predicting tissue outcome, but this has not been demonstrated for CTP. We present a novel method for the automatic prediction of tissue outcome by combining multi-parametric CTP images into a tissue outcome probability map. A supervised classification scheme was developed to extract absolute and relative perfusion values from processed CTP images that are summarized by a trained classifier into a likelihood of infarction. Training was performed using follow-up CT scans of 20 acute stroke patients with complete recanalization of the vessel that was occluded on admission. Infarcted regions were annotated by expert neuroradiologists. Multiple classifiers were evaluated in a leave-one-patient-out strategy for their discriminating performance using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) statistics. Results showed that a RandomForest classifier performed optimally with an area under the ROC of 0.90 for discriminating infarct tissue. The obtained results are an improvement over existing thresholding methods and are in line with results found in literature where MR perfusion was used.

  12. Dynamic contrast enhanced MRI as a predictor of vascular-targeted photodynamic focal ablation therapy outcome in prostate cancer post-failed external beam radiation therapy

    PubMed Central

    Barrett, Tristan; Davidson, Sean R.H.; Wilson, Brian C.; Weersink, Robert A.; Trachtenberg, John; Haider, Masoom A.

    2014-01-01

    Introduction: Photodynamic therapy (PDT) can be employed as a focal therapy for prostate cancer. Dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) can potentially help identify tumour recurrence after failed external-beam radiotherapy (EBRT). The purpose of this study was to determine the ability of DCE-MRI to predict early response to PDT salvage treatment. Methods: Patients with post-EBRT prostate cancer recurrence were prospectively enrolled into a Phase I/II trial of PDT using WST09. A 15-patient subgroup of this cohort undergoing 1.5T DCE-MRI at baseline and 1-week post-PDT was retrospectively analyzed. The reference standard was prostate biopsy obtained 6 months post-PDT. Analysis was performed on a patient-by-patient basis, by prostate gland halves, and by prostate sextants. Results: Biopsy 6 months post-PDT identified cancer in 10/15 patients (66.7%), and in 24/90 sextants (26.7%). Residual cancer was identified in 22/37 sextants (59.5%) identified as being involved at baseline. DCE-MRI at 1 week correctly predicted recurrent disease with a sensitivity of 100% (10/10), specificity of 60% (3/5), positive predictive value of 83.3% (10/12), negative predictive value of 100% (3/3), and an overall accuracy of 86.7%, (13/15). When analysis was performed on prostate halves, the sensitivity and negative predictive value remained at 100%, with an improvement in specificity to 88.2% (15/17). The overall accuracy of DCE-MRI was similar regardless of analysis method: 86.7% on a patient-by-patient basis, 86.7% by prostate half and 83.3% by sextant. Changes in prostate-specific antigen (PSA) did not correlate to response. Conclusion: DCE-MRI shows promise as a tool to predict successful outcome when performed 1 week post-PDT and could potentially be used to inform the need for re-treatment at an early time-point. PMID:25408811

  13. Peripheral Blood Mononuclear Cell Gene Expression Profiles Predict Poor Outcome in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis

    PubMed Central

    Herazo-Maya, Jose D.; Noth, Imre; Duncan, Steven R.; Kim, SungHwan; Ma, Shwu-Fan; Tseng, George C.; Feingold, Eleanor; Juan-Guardela, Brenda M.; Richards, Thomas J.; Lussier, Yves; Huang, Yong; Vij, Rekha; Lindell, Kathleen O.; Xue, Jianmin; Gibson, Kevin F.; Shapiro, Steven D.; Garcia, Joe G. N.; Kaminski, Naftali

    2014-01-01

    We aimed to identify peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC) gene expression profiles predictive of poor outcomes in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) by performing microarray experiments of PBMCs in discovery and replication cohorts of IPF patients. Microarray analyses identified 52 genes associated with transplant-free survival (TFS) in the discovery cohort. Clustering the microarray samples of the replication cohort using the 52-gene outcome-predictive signature distinguished two patient groups with significant differences in TFS. We studied the pathways associated with TFS in each independent microarray cohort and identified decreased expression of “The costimulatory signal during T cell activation” Biocarta pathway and, in particular, the genes CD28, ICOS, LCK, and ITK, results confirmed by quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR). A proportional hazards model, including the qRT-PCR expression of CD28, ICOS, LCK, and ITK along with patient’s age, gender, and percent predicted forced vital capacity (FVC%), demonstrated an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 78.5% at 2.4 months for death and lung transplant prediction in the replication cohort. To evaluate the potential cellular source of CD28, ICOS, LCK, and ITK expression, we analyzed and found significant correlation of these genes with the PBMC percentage of CD4+CD28+ T cells in the replication cohort. Our results suggest that CD28, ICOS, LCK, and ITK are potential outcome biomarkers in IPF and should be further evaluated for patient prioritization for lung transplantation and stratification in drug studies. PMID:24089408

  14. Ex Vivo Apoptosis in CD8+ Lymphocytes Predicts Rectal Cancer Patient Outcome

    PubMed Central

    Haderlein, Marlen

    2016-01-01

    Background. Apoptotic rates in peripheral blood lymphocytes can predict radiation induced normal tissue toxicity. We studied whether apoptosis in lymphocytes has a prognostic value for therapy outcome. Methods. Lymphocytes of 87 rectal cancer patients were ex vivo irradiated with 2 Gy, 8 Gy, or a combination of 2 Gy ionizing radiation and Oxaliplatin. Cells were stained with Annexin V and 7-Aminoactinomycin D and apoptotic and necrotic rates were analyzed by multicolor flow cytometry. Results. After treatment, apoptotic and necrotic rates in CD8+ cells are consistently higher than in CD4+ cells, with lower corresponding necrotic rates. Apoptotic and necrotic rates of CD4+ cells and CD8+ cells correlated well within the 2 Gy, 8 Gy, and 2 Gy and Oxaliplatin arrangements (p ≤ 0.009). High apoptotic CD8+ rates after 2 Gy, 8 Gy, and 2 Gy + Oxaliplatin treatment were prognostically favorable for metastasis-free survival (p = 0.009, p = 0.038, and p = 0.009) and disease-free survival (p = 0.013, p = 0.098, and p = 0.013). Conclusions. Ex vivo CD8+ apoptotic rates are able to predict the patient outcome in regard to metastasis-free or disease-free survival. Patients with higher CD8+ apoptotic rates in the peripheral blood have a more favorable prognosis. In addition to the prediction of late-toxicity by utilization of CD4+ apoptotic rates, the therapy outcome can be predicted by CD8+ apoptotic rates. PMID:27340400

  15. Predicting Outcome using Butyrylcholinesterase Activity in Organophosphorus Pesticide Self-Poisoning

    PubMed Central

    Eddleston, Michael; Eyer, Peter; Worek, Franz; Rezvi Sheriff, MH; Buckley, Nick A

    2008-01-01

    Background The usefulness of a low butyrylcholinesterase activity on admission for predicting severity in acute organophosphorus insecticide poisoning has long been debated. Previous studies have been confounded by the inclusion of multiple insecticides with differing inhibitory kinetics. Aim We aimed to assess the usefulness of admission butyrylcholinesterase activity, together with plasma organophosphorus concentration, for predicting death with identified organophosphorus insecticides. Design A prospective cohort of self-poisoned patients Methods We prospectively studied 91 and 208 patients with proven dimethoate or chlorpyrifos self-poisoning treated using a standard protocol. Plasma butyrylcholinesterase activity and organophosphorus concentration were measured on admission and clinical outcomes recorded. Results The usefulness of a plasma butyrylcholinesterase activity <600mU/ml on admission varied markedly - while highly sensitive in chlorpyrifos poisoning (sensitivity 11/11 deaths; 100%, 95%CI 71.5-100), its specificity was only 17.7% (95%CI 12.6-23.7). In contrast, while poorly sensitive for deaths in dimethoate poisoning (12/25 patients; 48%, 95%CI 27.9-68.7) it was reasonably specific (86.4%, 95%CI 75.7-93.6). A high organophosphorus concentration on admission was associated with worse outcome; however, a clear threshold concentration was only present for dimethoate poisoning. Conclusions Plasma butyrylcholinesterase activity on admission can provide useful information; however, it must be interpreted carefully. It can only be used to predict need for critical care and death when the insecticide ingested is known and its sensitivity and specificity for that insecticide has been studied. Plasma concentration of some organophosphorus insecticides predicts outcome. The development of rapid bedside tests for organophosphorus detection may aid early assessment of severity. PMID:18375477

  16. Developing and Testing a Model to Predict Outcomes of Organizational Change

    PubMed Central

    Gustafson, David H; Sainfort, François; Eichler, Mary; Adams, Laura; Bisognano, Maureen; Steudel, Harold

    2003-01-01

    Objective To test the effectiveness of a Bayesian model employing subjective probability estimates for predicting success and failure of health care improvement projects. Data Sources Experts' subjective assessment data for model development and independent retrospective data on 221 healthcare improvement projects in the United States, Canada, and the Netherlands collected between 1996 and 2000 for validation. Methods A panel of theoretical and practical experts and literature in organizational change were used to identify factors predicting the outcome of improvement efforts. A Bayesian model was developed to estimate probability of successful change using subjective estimates of likelihood ratios and prior odds elicited from the panel of experts. A subsequent retrospective empirical analysis of change efforts in 198 health care organizations was performed to validate the model. Logistic regression and ROC analysis were used to evaluate the model's performance using three alternative definitions of success. Data Collection For the model development, experts' subjective assessments were elicited using an integrative group process. For the validation study, a staff person intimately involved in each improvement project responded to a written survey asking questions about model factors and project outcomes. Results Logistic regression chi-square statistics and areas under the ROC curve demonstrated a high level of model performance in predicting success. Chi-square statistics were significant at the 0.001 level and areas under the ROC curve were greater than 0.84. Conclusions A subjective Bayesian model was effective in predicting the outcome of actual improvement projects. Additional prospective evaluations as well as testing the impact of this model as an intervention are warranted. PMID:12785571

  17. Predictions of interplanetary shock arrivals at Earth: Dependence of forecast outcome on the input parameters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, Z. K.; Steenburgh, R.; Fry, C. D.; Dryer, M.

    2009-12-01

    Predictions of interplanetary shock arrivals at Earth are important to space weather because they are often followed by geomagnetic disturbances that disrupt human technologies. The success of numerical simulation predictions depends on the codes and on the inputs obtained from solar observations. The inputs are usually divided into the more slowly varying background solar wind, onto which short-duration solar transient events are superposed. This paper examines the dependence of the prediction success on the range of values of the solar transient inputs. These input parameters are common to many 3-D MHD codes. The predictions of the Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry version 2 (HAFv2) model were used because its predictions of shock arrivals were tested, informally in the operational environment, from 1997 to 2006. The events list and HAFv2's performance were published in a series of three papers. The third event set is used to investigate the success and accuracy of the predictions in terms of the input parameter ranges (considered individually). By defining three thresholds for the input speed, duration, and X-ray class, it is possible to categorize the prediction outcomes by these input ranges. The X-ray class gives the most successful classification. Above the highest threshold, 89% of the predictions were successful while below the lowest threshold, only 40% were successful. The accuracy, measured in terms of the time differences between the observed and predicted shock arrivals, also shows largest improvement for the X-ray class. Guidelines are presented for space weather forecasters using the HAFv2 or other interplanetary simulation models.

  18. Prediction of individual long-term outcomes in smoking cessation trials using frailty models.

    PubMed

    Li, Yimei; Wileyto, E Paul; Heitjan, Daniel F

    2011-12-01

    In smoking cessation clinical trials, subjects commonly receive treatment and report daily cigarette consumption over a period of several weeks. Although the outcome at the end of this period is an important indicator of treatment success, substantial uncertainty remains on how an individual's smoking behavior will evolve over time. Therefore it is of interest to predict long-term smoking cessation success based on short-term clinical observations. We develop a Bayesian method for prediction, based on a cure-mixture frailty model we proposed earlier, that describes the process of transition between abstinence and smoking. Specifically we propose a two-stage prediction algorithm that first uses importance sampling to generate subject-specific frailties from their posterior distributions conditional on the observed data, then samples predicted future smoking behavior trajectories from the estimated model parameters and sampled frailties. We apply the method to data from two randomized smoking cessation trials comparing bupropion to placebo. Comparisons of actual smoking status at one year with predictions from our model and from a variety of empirical methods suggest that our method gives excellent predictions.

  19. Two Anatomically and Computationally Distinct Learning Signals Predict Changes to Stimulus-Outcome Associations in Hippocampus

    PubMed Central

    Boorman, Erie D.; Rajendran, Vani G.; O’Reilly, Jill X.; Behrens, Tim E.

    2016-01-01

    Summary Complex cognitive processes require sophisticated local processing but also interactions between distant brain regions. It is therefore critical to be able to study distant interactions between local computations and the neural representations they act on. Here we report two anatomically and computationally distinct learning signals in lateral orbitofrontal cortex (lOFC) and the dopaminergic ventral midbrain (VM) that predict trial-by-trial changes to a basic internal model in hippocampus. To measure local computations during learning and their interaction with neural representations, we coupled computational fMRI with trial-by-trial fMRI suppression. We find that suppression in a medial temporal lobe network changes trial-by-trial in proportion to stimulus-outcome associations. During interleaved choice trials, we identify learning signals that relate to outcome type in lOFC and to reward value in VM. These intervening choice feedback signals predicted the subsequent change to hippocampal suppression, suggesting a convergence of signals that update the flexible representation of stimulus-outcome associations. PMID:26948895

  20. Two Anatomically and Computationally Distinct Learning Signals Predict Changes to Stimulus-Outcome Associations in Hippocampus.

    PubMed

    Boorman, Erie D; Rajendran, Vani G; O'Reilly, Jill X; Behrens, Tim E

    2016-03-16

    Complex cognitive processes require sophisticated local processing but also interactions between distant brain regions. It is therefore critical to be able to study distant interactions between local computations and the neural representations they act on. Here we report two anatomically and computationally distinct learning signals in lateral orbitofrontal cortex (lOFC) and the dopaminergic ventral midbrain (VM) that predict trial-by-trial changes to a basic internal model in hippocampus. To measure local computations during learning and their interaction with neural representations, we coupled computational fMRI with trial-by-trial fMRI suppression. We find that suppression in a medial temporal lobe network changes trial-by-trial in proportion to stimulus-outcome associations. During interleaved choice trials, we identify learning signals that relate to outcome type in lOFC and to reward value in VM. These intervening choice feedback signals predicted the subsequent change to hippocampal suppression, suggesting a convergence of signals that update the flexible representation of stimulus-outcome associations. PMID:26948895

  1. SERPINB1 expression is predictive for sensitivity and outcome of cisplatin-based chemotherapy in melanoma

    PubMed Central

    Willmes, Christoph; Kumar, Rajiv; Becker, Jürgen C.; Fried, Isabella; Rachakonda, P. Sivaramakrishna; Poppe, Lidia M.; Hesbacher, Sonja; Schadendorf, Dirk; Sucker, Antje

    2016-01-01

    Despite of highly effective new therapeutic strategies, chemotherapy still is an important treatment option in metastatic melanoma. Since predictors of chemotherapy response are rare, drugs and regimens are currently chosen arbitrarily. The present study was aimed at the identification of molecular markers predicting the outcome of chemotherapy in melanoma. Tumor biopsies from metastatic lesions were collected from 203 stage IV melanoma patients prior to chemotherapy onset and used for gene expression profiling (n = 6; marker identification set), quantitative real-time PCR (n = 127; validation set 1), and immunohistochemistry on tissue microarrays (n = 70; validation set 2). The results were correlated to the tumors' in-vitro chemosensitivity and to the patients' in-vivo chemotherapy outcome. SERPINB1 was found to correlate to the in-vitro sensitivity to cisplatin-containing chemotherapy regimens (p = 0.005). High SERPINB1 gene expression was associated with favorable tumor response (p = 0.012) and prolonged survival (p = 0.081) under cisplatin-based chemotherapy. High SERPINB1 protein expression in tumor tissue from cisplatin-treated patients was associated with a favorable survival (p = 0.011), and proved as an independent predictor of survival (p = 0.008) by multivariate analysis. We conclude, that SERPINB1 expression, although not functionally involved, is predictive for the outcome of cisplatin-based chemotherapy in melanoma, and thus may be useful to personalize melanoma chemotherapy. PMID:26799424

  2. Striatal D1 and D2 signaling differentially predict learning from positive and negative outcomes.

    PubMed

    Cox, Sylvia M L; Frank, Michael J; Larcher, Kevin; Fellows, Lesley K; Clark, Crystal A; Leyton, Marco; Dagher, Alain

    2015-04-01

    The extent to which we learn from positive and negative outcomes of decisions is modulated by the neurotransmitter dopamine. Dopamine neurons burst fire in response to unexpected rewards and pause following negative outcomes. This dual signaling mechanism is hypothesized to drive both approach and avoidance behavior. Here we test a prediction deriving from a computational reinforcement learning model, in which approach is mediated via activation of the direct cortico-striatal pathway due to striatal D1 receptor stimulation, while avoidance occurs via disinhibition of indirect pathway striatal neurons secondary to a reduction of D2 receptor stimulation. Using positron emission tomography with two separate radioligands, we demonstrate that individual differences in human approach and avoidance learning are predicted by variability in striatal D1 and D2 receptor binding, respectively. Moreover, transient dopamine precursor depletion improved learning from negative outcomes. These findings support a bidirectional modulatory role for striatal dopamine in reward and avoidance learning via segregated D1 and D2 cortico-striatal pathways.

  3. Prediction of adverse outcomes of acute coronary syndrome using intelligent fusion of triage information with HUMINT

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCullough, Claire L.; Novobilski, Andrew J.; Fesmire, Francis M.

    2006-04-01

    Faculty from the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga and the University of Tennessee College of Medicine, Chattanooga Unit, have used data mining techniques and neural networks to examine a set of fourteen features, data items, and HUMINT assessments for 2,148 emergency room patients with symptoms possibly indicative of Acute Coronary Syndrome. Specifically, the authors have generated Bayesian networks describing linkages and causality in the data, and have compared them with neural networks. The data includes objective information routinely collected during triage and the physician's initial case assessment, a HUMINT appraisal. Both the neural network and the Bayesian network were used to fuse the disparate types of information with the goal of forecasting thirty-day adverse patient outcome. This paper presents details of the methods of data fusion including both the data mining techniques and the neural network. Results are compared using Receiver Operating Characteristic curves describing the outcomes of both methods, both using only objective features and including the subjective physician's assessment. While preliminary, the results of this continuing study are significant both from the perspective of potential use of the intelligent fusion of biomedical informatics to aid the physician in prescribing treatment necessary to prevent serious adverse outcome from ACS and as a model of fusion of objective data with subjective HUMINT assessment. Possible future work includes extension of successfully demonstrated intelligent fusion methods to other medical applications, and use of decision level fusion to combine results from data mining and neural net approaches for even more accurate outcome prediction.

  4. Self-report of illicit benzodiazepine use on the Addiction Severity Index predicts treatment outcome

    PubMed Central

    Ghitza, Udi E.; Epstein, David H.; Preston, Kenzie L.

    2008-01-01

    The relationship between pretreatment illicit benzodiazepine use (days of use in the last 30) assessed on the Addiction Severity Index (ASI) and treatment outcome was investigated by retrospective analysis of data from two controlled clinical trials in 361 methadone maintained cocaine/opiate users randomly assigned to 12-week voucher- or prize-based contingency management (CM) or control interventions. Based on screening ASI, participants were identified as nonusers (BZD-N; 0 days of use) or users (BZD-U; >0 days of use). Outcome measures were: urine drug screens (thrice weekly); quality of life and self-reported HIV-risk behaviors (every 2 weeks); and current DSM-IV diagnosis of cocaine and heroin dependence (study exit). In the CM group, BZD-U had significantly worse outcomes on in-treatment cocaine use, quality-of-life scores, needle-sharing behaviors, and current heroin dependence diagnoses at study exit compared to BZD-N. In the control group, BZD-U had significantly higher in-treatment cocaine use but did not differ from BZD-N on psychosocial measures. Thus, in a sample of non-dependent BZD users, self-reported illicit BZD use on the ASI, even at low levels, predicted worse outcome on cocaine use and blunted response to CM. PMID:18499354

  5. Percutaneous microwave ablation vs radiofrequency ablation in the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Poulou, Loukia S; Botsa, Evanthia; Thanou, Ioanna; Ziakas, Panayiotis D; Thanos, Loukas

    2015-01-01

    Hepatocellular cancer ranks fifth among cancers and is related to chronic viral hepatitis, alcohol abuse, steatohepatitis and liver autoimmunity. Surgical resection and orthotopic liver transplantation have curative potential, but fewer than 20% of patients are suitable candidates. Interventional treatments are offered to the vast majority of patients. Radiofrequency (RFA) and microwave ablation (MWA) are among the therapeutic modalities, with similar indications which include the presence of up to three lesions, smaller than 3 cm in size, and the absence of extrahepatic disease. The therapeutic effect of both methods relies on thermal injury, but MWA uses an electromagnetic field as opposed to electrical current used in RFA. Unlike MWA, the effect of RFA is partially limited by the heat-sink effect and increased impedance of the ablated tissue. Compared with RFA, MWA attains a more predictable ablation zone, permits simultaneous treatment of multiple lesions, and achieves larger coagulation volumes in a shorter procedural time. Major complications of both methods are comparable and infrequent (approximately 2%-3%), and they include haemorrhage, infection/abscess, visceral organ injury, liver failure, and pneumothorax. RFA may incur the additional complication of skin burns. Nevertheless, there is no compelling evidence for differences in clinical outcomes, including local recurrence rates and survival. PMID:26052394

  6. CyberKnife Stereotactic Ablative Radiotherapy as an Option of Treatment for Patients With Prostate Cancer Having Oligometastatic Lymph Nodes: Single-Center Study Outcome Evaluation.

    PubMed

    Napieralska, Aleksandra; Miszczyk, Leszek; Stąpór-Fudzińska, Małgorzata

    2016-10-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of CyberKnife-based stereotactic ablative radiotherapy on prostate cancer lymph node metastases. Our material consisted of 18 patients with 31 metastatic lymph nodes irradiated between 2011 and 2014 using CyberKnife-based stereotactic ablative radiotherapy. Patients were irradiated using fraction dose varied from 6 to 15 Gy (median 10), to the total dose of 24 to 45 Gy (median 30). Irradiated lymph node size varied from 0.4 to 4.0 cm. In all, 9 patients had single lymph node metastasis and 9 patients had metastases of 2 to 4 lymph nodes. Prostate-specific antigen concentration before radiotherapy varied from 0.01 to 15.58 (mean 6.97; median 4.66). All patients at the time of radiotherapy and follow-up received androgen deprivation therapy. Mann-Whitney U, Kaplan-Meier method, and log-rank tests were used in statistical analysis. We obtained the following results: after CyberKnife stereotactic ablative radiotherapy, prostate-specific antigen concentration dropped in majority of cases and during the last control varied from 0.00 to 258.00 (median 2.5), and was lower in patients without dissemination to other organs (P = .01). Complete regression was found in 12 lesions, stable disease in 13, and progression in 4. In 7 patients, the dissemination to other organs occurred. Our results allow us to conclude that CyberKnife stereotactic ablative radiotherapy of prostate cancer lymph node oligometastases gives good local control and relatively good prostate-specific antigen response.

  7. Can exaggerated stress reactivity and prolonged recovery predict negative health outcomes? The case of cardiovascular disease.

    PubMed

    Lovallo, William R

    2015-04-01

    Researchers and laypersons have long argued that stress is bad for health, particularly when responses are large, prolonged, and frequent. By extension, individuals who have the largest and the most prolonged responses are assumed to have worse outcomes than do less reactive persons. Research in animals has been supportive of the connection between stress and poor health, but evidence in humans has been slow to accumulate. The current issue of Psychosomatic Medicine presents a meta-analysis of 33 studies of delayed recovery from stress and its association with poor cardiovascular disease outcomes and all-cause mortality. The analysis supports the contention that slower recovery to baseline after exercise or psychological stress may predict earlier death due to all causes. This finding raises questions for psychosomatic theories of disease and points the direction for further study of how or whether to incorporate reactivity measures into standard risk profiles.

  8. Cognitive dysfunction at baseline predicts symptomatic 1-year outcome in first-episode schizophrenics.

    PubMed

    Moritz, S; Krausz, M; Gottwalz, E; Lambert, M; Perro, C; Ganzer, S; Naber, D

    2000-01-01

    The present study addresses the consequences of cognitive disturbances on symptomatic outcome. Fifty-three first-episode schizophrenics were reassessed (n = 32) 1 year after admission. Simple regression analyses revealed that several self-perceived cognitive deficits at baseline as measured with the Frankfurt Complaint Questionnaire significantly predicted increased Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale global scores at follow-up (p = 0.05 to p = 0.005). A stepwise regression analysis proved memory dysfunction to be the strongest predictor of symptomatic worsening (p = 0.005). It is suggested that the exploration and treatment of neuropsychological deficits in schizophrenia is of great clinical importance with regard to its impact on both functional and symptomatic outcome in schizophrenia.

  9. Ferritin levels in the cerebrospinal fluid predict Alzheimer's disease outcomes and are regulated by APOE.

    PubMed

    Ayton, Scott; Faux, Noel G; Bush, Ashley I

    2015-05-19

    Brain iron elevation is implicated in Alzheimer's disease (AD) pathogenesis, but the impact of iron on disease outcomes has not been previously explored in a longitudinal study. Ferritin is the major iron storage protein of the body; by using cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) levels of ferritin as an index, we explored whether brain iron status impacts longitudinal outcomes in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) cohort. We show that baseline CSF ferritin levels were negatively associated with cognitive performance over 7 years in 91 cognitively normal, 144 mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and 67 AD subjects, and predicted MCI conversion to AD. Ferritin was strongly associated with CSF apolipoprotein E levels and was elevated by the Alzheimer's risk allele, APOE-ɛ4. These findings reveal that elevated brain iron adversely impacts on AD progression, and introduce brain iron elevation as a possible mechanism for APOE-ɛ4 being the major genetic risk factor for AD.

  10. Predicting clinical outcome in feline oral squamous cell carcinoma: tumour initiating cells, telomeres and telomerase.

    PubMed

    Yoshikawa, H; Maranon, D G; Battaglia, C L R; Ehrhart, E J; Charles, J B; Bailey, S M; LaRue, S M

    2014-09-11

    Feline oral squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) has very poor prognosis. Here, a retrospective pilot study was conducted on 20 feline oral SCC patients who underwent stereotactic radiation therapy (SRT), to evaluate: (1) the value of putative tumour initiating cell (TIC) markers of human head and neck SCC (CD44, Bmi-1); (2) telomere length (TL) specifically in putative TICs; and (3) tumour relative telomerase activity (TA). Significant inverse correlations were found between treatment outcomes and Bmi-1 expression, supporting the predictive value of Bmi-1 as a negative prognostic indicator. While TL exhibited a wide range of variability, particularly in very short fractions, many tumours possessed high levels of TA, which correlated with high levels of Bmi-1, Ki67 and EGFR. Taken together, our results imply that Bmi-1 and telomerase may represent novel therapeutic targets in feline oral SCC, as their inhibition - in combination with SRT - would be expected to have beneficial treatment outcome. PMID:25212092

  11. The orbitofrontal oracle: cortical mechanisms for the prediction and evaluation of specific behavioral outcomes.

    PubMed

    Rudebeck, Peter H; Murray, Elisabeth A

    2014-12-17

    The orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) has long been associated with the flexible control of behavior and concepts such as behavioral inhibition, self-control, and emotional regulation. These ideas emphasize the suppression of behaviors and emotions, but OFC's affirmative functions have remained enigmatic. Here we review recent work that has advanced our understanding of this prefrontal area and how its functions are shaped through interaction with subcortical structures such as the amygdala. Recent findings have overturned theories emphasizing behavioral inhibition as OFC's fundamental function. Instead, new findings indicate that OFC provides predictions about specific outcomes associated with stimuli, choices, and actions, especially their moment-to-moment value based on current internal states. OFC function thereby encompasses a broad representation or model of an individual's sensory milieu and potential actions, along with their relationship to likely behavioral outcomes. PMID:25521376

  12. The orbitofrontal oracle: cortical mechanisms for the prediction and evaluation of specific behavioral outcomes

    PubMed Central

    Rudebeck, Peter H.; Murray, Elisabeth A.

    2014-01-01

    The orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) has long been associated with the flexible control of behavior and concepts such as behavioral inhibition, self-control and emotional regulation. These ideas emphasize the suppression of behaviors and emotions, but OFC’s affirmative functions have remained enigmatic. Here we review recent work that has advanced our understanding of this prefrontal area and how its functions are shaped through interaction with subcortical structures such as the amygdala. Recent findings have overturned theories emphasizing behavioral inhibition as OFC’s fundamental function. Instead, new findings indicate that OFC provides predictions about specific outcomes associated with stimuli, choices and actions, especially their moment-to-moment value based on current internal states. OFC function thereby encompasses a broad representation or model of an individual’s sensory milieu and potential actions, along with their relationship to likely behavioral outcomes. PMID:25521376

  13. Cognitive dysfunction at baseline predicts symptomatic 1-year outcome in first-episode schizophrenics.

    PubMed

    Moritz, S; Krausz, M; Gottwalz, E; Lambert, M; Perro, C; Ganzer, S; Naber, D

    2000-01-01

    The present study addresses the consequences of cognitive disturbances on symptomatic outcome. Fifty-three first-episode schizophrenics were reassessed (n = 32) 1 year after admission. Simple regression analyses revealed that several self-perceived cognitive deficits at baseline as measured with the Frankfurt Complaint Questionnaire significantly predicted increased Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale global scores at follow-up (p = 0.05 to p = 0.005). A stepwise regression analysis proved memory dysfunction to be the strongest predictor of symptomatic worsening (p = 0.005). It is suggested that the exploration and treatment of neuropsychological deficits in schizophrenia is of great clinical importance with regard to its impact on both functional and symptomatic outcome in schizophrenia. PMID:10601828

  14. The bleeding score predicts clinical outcomes and replacement therapy in adults with von Willebrand disease.

    PubMed

    Federici, Augusto B; Bucciarelli, Paolo; Castaman, Giancarlo; Mazzucconi, Maria G; Morfini, Massimo; Rocino, Angiola; Schiavoni, Mario; Peyvandi, Flora; Rodeghiero, Francesco; Mannucci, Pier Mannuccio

    2014-06-26

    Analyses of the bleeding tendency by means of the bleeding score (BS) have been proposed until now to confirm diagnosis but not to predict clinical outcomes in patients with inherited von Willebrand disease (VWD). We prospectively followed up, for 1 year, 796 Italian patients with different types of VWD to determine whether the previous BS of European VWD1 is useful to predict the occurrence of spontaneous bleeds severe enough to require replacement therapy with desmopressin (DDAVP) and/or von Willebrand factor (VWF)/factor VIII concentrates. Among the 796 patients included, 75 (9.4%) needed treatment of 232 spontaneous bleeding events. BS >10 and VWF:ristocetin cofactor activity <10 U/dL were associated with the risk of bleeding, but only a BS >10 remained highly associated in a multivariable Cox proportional hazard model (adjusted hazard ratio: 7.27 [95% confidence interval, 3.83-13.83]). Although the bleeding event-free survival was different in VWD types, only a BS >10 could predict for each type which patient had bleeding events severe enough to require treatment with DDAVP and/or concentrates. Therefore, BS can be considered a simple predictor of clinical outcomes of VWD and may identify patients needing intensive therapeutic regimens.

  15. Predicting group cognitive-behavioral therapy outcome of binge eating disorder using empirical classification.

    PubMed

    Peterson, Carol B; Crosby, Ross D; Wonderlich, Stephen A; Mitchell, James E; Crow, Scott J; Engel, Scott

    2013-09-01

    The purpose of this study was to use empirical classification based on Latent Profile Analysis to identify subgroups of binge eating disorder (BED) and to evaluate the extent to which these subgroups were predictive of treatment outcome in group cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT). The Eating Disorder Examination (EDE), Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV, and Inventory of Depressive Symptomatology-Self-Report were administered to 259 participants at baseline in a 15-session CBT trial (190 of whom received active treatment). The best fitting model included three profiles: dietary restraint only (DRO; n = 96; 51%); low dietary restraint (LDR; n = 52; 27%); and dietary restraint plus psychopathology (DRP; n = 42; 22%). Regression analyses revealed that after controlling for baseline score and treatment condition, EDE Global scores were lower for the DRO compared to the LDR profile at one year follow-up (p = .047). Class assignment was not predictive of EDE binge eating frequency or abstinence at end of treatment or follow-up. These results suggest that meaningful empirical classes based on eating disorder symptoms, psychopathology, dietary restraint, and BMI can be identified in BED and that these classes may be useful in predicting long-term group CBT outcome.

  16. A computational framework to predict post-treatment outcome for gait-related disorders.

    PubMed

    Reinbolt, Jeffrey A; Haftka, Raphael T; Chmielewski, Terese L; Fregly, Benjamin J

    2008-05-01

    Clinicians often use intuitive models based on clinical experience or regression models based on population studies to plan treatment of gait-related disorders. Because such models are constructed using data collected from previous patients, the predicted clinical outcome for a particular patient may not be reliable. We propose a new approach that uses computational models based on engineering mechanics to predict post-treatment outcome from pre-treatment movement data. The approach utilizes a four-phase optimization process built around a dynamic, patient-specific gait model. The first three phases calibrate the model's joint, inertial, and control parameters, respectively, where the control parameters are weights in an optimization cost function that tracks the patient's pre-treatment gait motion and loads. The last phase predicts the patient's post-treatment gait pattern by performing a tracking optimization with the calibrated model modified to simulate the selected treatment. We demonstrate the approach by simulating how two treatments for knee osteoarthritis (OA)--gait modification and high tibial osteotomy (HTO) surgery--alter the external knee adduction torque for a specific patient. By performing multiple tracking optimizations, we calibrated the model's parameter values to reproduce the patient's knee adduction torque curve for a toe out gait motion. When we performed a tracking optimization with the calibrated model using a modified footpath to simulate an increased stance width, the predicted reduction in both adduction torque peaks matched experimental results to within 4.8% error. When we performed a tracking optimization with the same model using modified leg geometry to simulate HTO surgery, the predicted reductions were consistent with published data. The approach requires further evaluation with a larger number of patients to determine its effectiveness for planning the treatment of gait-related disorders on a patient-specific basis.

  17. Shockwave application in calcifying tendinitis of the shoulder--prediction of outcome by imaging.

    PubMed

    Maier, M; Stäbler, A; Lienemann, A; Köhler, S; Feitenhansl, A; Dürr, H R; Pfahler, M; Refior, H J

    2000-01-01

    This prospective study examined 62 patients (65 shoulders) with chronic courses of calcifying tendinitis of the shoulder before and after low-energy extracorporeal shockwave application (ESWA) in order to identify variables associated with the outcome of this treatment. Before ESWA, radiographs and contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of the affected shoulders were obtained in order to document the size and morphology of the calcifications and the contrast media reactions in areas of interest (deposit, synovia, bursae), respectively. In addition, a clinical evaluation was performed. After ESWA (mean follow-up 18.2 months), clinical evaluations of all 65 shoulders revealed an increase in the Constant score from 44% to 78% (p < 0.0001). While size (p = 0.61) and morphology (p = 0.7) of the deposits before ESWA were not associated with the clinical outcome, negative contrast reactions around the deposits (p) = 0.0001), synovia (p = 0.0049) and bursae (p < 0.01) were associated with improved clinical outcomes. After the total study group was divided into two groups, one with Constant scores > or = 75% (n = 43) and the other with scores < 75% (n = 22), the positive predictive value (ppv), specificity (sp) and sensitivity (se) were determined for the negative reaction around the deposit (ppv: 0.94; sp: 0.95; se: 0.38), synovia (ppv: 0.84; sp: 0.82; se: 0.49) and bursae (ppv: 0.86; sp: 0.86; se: 0.44). In 5 cases (7.7%), surgery of the affected shoulder during the follow-up period was performed. No major side-effects were seen in the study group. In conclusion, our results suggest that in patients with chronic calcifying tendinitis, the absence of contrast enhancement, especially around the deposit, is a strong predictive parameter of a positive clinical outcome of ESWA.

  18. Neurophysiological markers that predict and track treatment outcomes in childhood anxiety.

    PubMed

    Hum, Kathryn M; Manassis, Katharina; Lewis, Marc D

    2013-11-01

    The present study examined the cortical processes that mediate cognitive regulation in response to emotion-eliciting stimuli, before and after anxious children participated in a cognitive behavioral therapy program. Electroencephalographic activity was recorded from anxious children (n = 24, 8 males) and comparison children (n = 16, 7 males) at pre-and post-treatment sessions. The change in anxiety T-scores from pre- to post-treatment was used to signify clinical improvement among anxious children (Improvers: n = 11 vs. Non-improvers: n = 13). Event-related potential components were recorded while children performed a Go/No-go task using emotional facial expressions. For the P1 component, believed to reflect attention and/or arousal processes, Non-improvers had greater activation levels relative to Improver and comparison groups at both sessions. Greater P1 amplitudes at pre-treatment predicted non-improvement following treatment. For the frontal N2 component, thought to reflect cognitive control processing, Improvers recruited greater activation from pre- to post-treatment, a change in activation that was predictive of treatment outcome. Non-improvers showed increased cortical activation within the time window of the P1, whether at pre- or post-treatment. These data suggest that heightened perceptual vigilance may have led to poorer outcomes. Improvers showed increased prefrontal activation within the time window of the N2 from pre- to post-treatment. These data suggest that increased cognitive control may have led to improved treatment outcomes. In sum, P1 activation may serve as a predictor of treatment outcome, while N2 activation may serve as an indicator of treatment response. PMID:23690280

  19. Ablative Thermal Protection: An Overview

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Laub, Bernie

    2003-01-01

    Contents include the following: Why ablative thermal protections - TPS. Ablative TPS chronology: strategic reentry systems, solid rocket motor nozzles, space (manned missions and planetary entry probes). Ablation mechanisms. Ablation material testing. Ablative material testing.

  20. Prediction of post-treatment outcome after combined treatment with maxillary protraction and chincap appliances.

    PubMed

    Yoshida, Ikue; Yamaguchi, Nobuhito; Mizoguchi, Itaru

    2006-02-01

    The aims of this study were to identify differences in the initial skeletal morphology between successful and unsuccessful groups and to establish a novel method for predicting the final outcome of treatment with a maxillary protraction appliance (MPA) and chincap. The cephalograms used in this study were taken from 32 Japanese girls (mean age 10.2 years) with a Class III malocclusion at the beginning of treatment with an MPA and chincap (T1), at removal of the appliance (T2), and during the final post-treatment period (T3). The subjects were divided into two groups according to the treatment outcome at T3. Lower face height (ANS-Me), total face height (N-Me), ratio of face height (ANS-Me/N-ANS), maxillary position, mandibular plane and gonial angle at T1 were all significantly larger in the unsuccessful group, compared with the successful group. Discriminant analysis indicated that lower face height and gonial angle were significant determinants for distinguishing between the two groups at T1. From T1 to T2, while the anterior displacement of the maxilla was almost the same in the two groups, SNB decreased by 1.6 degrees in the successful group and 0.4 degrees in the unsuccessful group. After orthopaedic treatment, a second phase of treatment with a multibracket system was performed (T2 to T3). From T2 to T3, SNA increased by 0.4 degrees in the successful group and decreased by 0.7 degrees in the unsuccessful group. These results indicate that the vertical dimensions of the craniofacial skeleton are important for predicting the prognosis of skeletal Class III patients treated with a MPA and chincap and that the discriminant formula established in this study is effective in predicting the final treatment outcome.

  1. Lipocalin-2 as an Infection-Related Biomarker to Predict Clinical Outcome in Ischemic Stroke

    PubMed Central

    Hochmeister, Sonja; Engel, Odilo; Adzemovic, Milena Z.; Pekar, Thomas; Kendlbacher, Paul; Zeitelhofer, Manuel; Haindl, Michaela; Meisel, Andreas; Fazekas, Franz; Seifert-Held, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    Objectives From previous data in animal models of cerebral ischemia, lipocalin-2 (LCN2), a protein related to neutrophil function and cellular iron homeostasis, is supposed to have a value as a biomarker in ischemic stroke patients. Therefore, we examined LCN2 expression in the ischemic brain in an animal model and measured plasma levels of LCN2 in ischemic stroke patients. Methods In the mouse model of transient middle cerebral artery occlusion (tMCAO), LCN2 expression in the brain was analyzed by immunohistochemistry and correlated to cellular nonheme iron deposition up to 42 days after tMCAO. In human stroke patients, plasma levels of LCN2 were determined one week after ischemic stroke. In addition to established predictive parameters such as age, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale and thrombolytic therapy, LCN2 was included into linear logistic regression modeling to predict clinical outcome at 90 days after stroke. Results Immunohistochemistry revealed expression of LCN2 in the mouse brain already at one day following tMCAO, and the amount of LCN2 subsequently increased with a maximum at 2 weeks after tMCAO. Accumulation of cellular nonheme iron was detectable one week post tMCAO and continued to increase. In ischemic stroke patients, higher plasma levels of LCN2 were associated with a worse clinical outcome at 90 days and with the occurrence of post-stroke infections. Conclusions LCN2 is expressed in the ischemic brain after temporary experimental ischemia and paralleled by the accumulation of cellular nonheme iron. Plasma levels of LCN2 measured in patients one week after ischemic stroke contribute to the prediction of clinical outcome at 90 days and reflect the systemic response to post-stroke infections. PMID:27152948

  2. Degradation Rate of 5-Fluorouracil in Metastatic Colorectal Cancer: A New Predictive Outcome Biomarker?

    PubMed Central

    Botticelli, Andrea; Borro, Marina; Onesti, Concetta Elisa; Strigari, Lidia; Gentile, Giovanna; Cerbelli, Bruna; Romiti, Adriana; Occhipinti, Mario; Sebastiani, Claudia; Lionetto, Luana; Marchetti, Luca; Simmaco, Maurizio; Marchetti, Paolo; Mazzuca, Federica

    2016-01-01

    Background 5-FU based chemotherapy is the most common first line regimen used for metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). Identification of predictive markers of response to chemotherapy is a challenging approach for drug selection. The present study analyzes the predictive role of 5-FU degradation rate (5-FUDR) and genetic polymorphisms (MTHFR, TSER, DPYD) on survival. Materials and Methods Genetic polymorphisms of MTHFR, TSER and DPYD, and the 5-FUDR of homogenous patients with mCRC were retrospectively studied. Genetic markers and the 5-FUDR were correlated with clinical outcome. Results 133 patients affected by mCRC, treated with fluoropyrimidine-based chemotherapy from 2009 to 2014, were evaluated. Patients were classified into three metabolic classes, according to normal distribution of 5-FUDR in more than 1000 patients, as previously published: poor-metabolizer (PM) with 5-FU-DR ≤ 0,85 ng/ml/106 cells/min (8 pts); normal metabolizer with 0,85 < 5-FU-DR < 2,2 ng/ml/106 cells/min (119 pts); ultra-rapid metabolizer (UM) with 5-FU-DR ≥ 2,2 ng/ml/106 cells/min (6 pts). PM and UM groups showed a longer PFS respect to normal metabolizer group (14.5 and 11 months respectively vs 8 months; p = 0.029). A higher G3-4 toxicity rate was observed in PM and UM, respect to normal metabolizer (50% in both PM and UM vs 18%; p = 0.019). No significant associations between genes polymorphisms and outcomes or toxicities were observed. Conclusion 5-FUDR seems to be significantly involved in predicting survival of patients who underwent 5-FU based CHT for mCRC. Although our findings require confirmation in large prospective studies, they reinforce the concept that individual genetic variation may allow personalized selection of chemotherapy to optimize clinical outcomes. PMID:27656891

  3. Does preoperative depression and/or serotonin transporter gene polymorphism predict outcome after laparoscopic cholecystectomy?

    PubMed Central

    Wright, Barry; Aghahoseini, Assad

    2016-01-01

    Objective To determine whether preoperative psychological depression and/or serotonin transporter gene polymorphism are associated with poor outcomes after the common procedure of laparoscopic cholecystectomy. Design Patients undergoing laparoscopic cholecystectomy were genotyped for the serotonin transporter gene 5-HTTLPR polymorphism and assessed for psychological morbidity before and 6 weeks after surgery. The main outcome was postoperative depression; secondary outcomes included fatigue, perceived pain, quality of life and subjective perception about return to usual. Results Full genetic and psychological data were obtained from 273 out of 330 patients consented to the study (82% female). Significantly fewer people with preoperative depression (Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) score >5) had returned to employment (57% vs 86%, p<0.001) or made a full recovery (11% vs 44%, p<0.001) 6 weeks after surgery. Independent predictors for subjective return to usual after surgery included preoperative depression, body mass index and postoperative pain scores. Independent predictors of postoperative depression included preoperative antidepressant use and preoperative depression. SS genotype was associated with use of antidepressants preoperatively and higher anxiety levels after surgery. However, it was not associated with other salient postoperative psychosocial outcomes. Conclusions Depressive psychological morbidity preoperatively, pain and body mass index appear to be important factors in predicting recovery after this common surgical procedure. There may be a place to include preoperative brief psychological screening to enable targeted support. Our results suggest that the serotonin transporter gene is unlikely to be a useful clinical predictor of outcome in this group. Trial registration number ISRCTN40219584. PMID:27601483

  4. Predicting Overall Survival After Stereotactic Ablative Radiation Therapy in Early-Stage Lung Cancer: Development and External Validation of the Amsterdam Prognostic Model

    SciTech Connect

    Louie, Alexander V.; Haasbeek, Cornelis J.A.; Mokhles, Sahar; Rodrigues, George B.; Stephans, Kevin L.; Lagerwaard, Frank J.; Palma, David A.; Videtic, Gregory M.M.; Warner, Andrew; Takkenberg, Johanna J.M.; Reddy, Chandana A.; Maat, Alex P.W.M.; Woody, Neil M.; Slotman, Ben J.; Senan, Suresh

    2015-09-01

    Purpose: A prognostic model for 5-year overall survival (OS), consisting of recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) and a nomogram, was developed for patients with early-stage non-small cell lung cancer (ES-NSCLC) treated with stereotactic ablative radiation therapy (SABR). Methods and Materials: A primary dataset of 703 ES-NSCLC SABR patients was randomly divided into a training (67%) and an internal validation (33%) dataset. In the former group, 21 unique parameters consisting of patient, treatment, and tumor factors were entered into an RPA model to predict OS. Univariate and multivariate models were constructed for RPA-selected factors to evaluate their relationship with OS. A nomogram for OS was constructed based on factors significant in multivariate modeling and validated with calibration plots. Both the RPA and the nomogram were externally validated in independent surgical (n=193) and SABR (n=543) datasets. Results: RPA identified 2 distinct risk classes based on tumor diameter, age, World Health Organization performance status (PS) and Charlson comorbidity index. This RPA had moderate discrimination in SABR datasets (c-index range: 0.52-0.60) but was of limited value in the surgical validation cohort. The nomogram predicting OS included smoking history in addition to RPA-identified factors. In contrast to RPA, validation of the nomogram performed well in internal validation (r{sup 2}=0.97) and external SABR (r{sup 2}=0.79) and surgical cohorts (r{sup 2}=0.91). Conclusions: The Amsterdam prognostic model is the first externally validated prognostication tool for OS in ES-NSCLC treated with SABR available to individualize patient decision making. The nomogram retained strong performance across surgical and SABR external validation datasets. RPA performance was poor in surgical patients, suggesting that 2 different distinct patient populations are being treated with these 2 effective modalities.

  5. Akt-Ser473 Phosphorylation as a Marker for Predicting Taxane Chemotherapy Outcome | NCI Technology Transfer Center | TTC

    Cancer.gov

    The National Institute of Health, National Cancer Institute is seeking statements of capability or interest from parties interested in collaborative research to further develop, evaluate, or commercialize a marker for predicting taxane chemotherapy outcome.

  6. A clinical risk score of myocardial fibrosis predicts adverse outcomes in aortic stenosis

    PubMed Central

    Chin, Calvin W.L.; Messika-Zeitoun, David; Shah, Anoop S.V.; Lefevre, Guillaume; Bailleul, Sophie; Yeung, Emily N.W.; Koo, Maria; Mirsadraee, Saeed; Mathieu, Tiffany; Semple, Scott I.; Mills, Nicholas L.; Vahanian, Alec; Newby, David E.; Dweck, Marc R.

    2016-01-01

    Aims Midwall myocardial fibrosis on cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) is a marker of early ventricular decompensation and adverse outcomes in aortic stenosis (AS). We aimed to develop and validate a novel clinical score using variables associated with midwall fibrosis. Methods and results One hundred forty-seven patients (peak aortic velocity (Vmax) 3.9 [3.2,4.4] m/s) underwent CMR to determine midwall fibrosis (CMR cohort). Routine clinical variables that demonstrated significant association with midwall fibrosis were included in a multivariate logistic score. We validated the prognostic value of the score in two separate outcome cohorts of asymptomatic patients (internal: n = 127, follow-up 10.3 [5.7,11.2] years; external: n = 289, follow-up 2.6 [1.6,4.5] years). Primary outcome was a composite of AS-related events (cardiovascular death, heart failure, and new angina, dyspnoea, or syncope). The final score consisted of age, sex, Vmax, high-sensitivity troponin I concentration, and electrocardiographic strain pattern [c-statistic 0.85 (95% confidence interval 0.78–0.91), P < 0.001; Hosmer–Lemeshow χ2 = 7.33, P = 0.50]. Patients in the outcome cohorts were classified according to the sensitivity and specificity of this score (both at 98%): low risk (probability score <7%), intermediate risk (7–57%), and high risk (>57%). In the internal outcome cohort, AS-related event rates were >10-fold higher in high-risk patients compared with those at low risk (23.9 vs. 2.1 events/100 patient-years, respectively; log rank P < 0.001). Similar findings were observed in the external outcome cohort (31.6 vs. 4.6 events/100 patient-years, respectively; log rank P < 0.001). Conclusion We propose a clinical score that predicts adverse outcomes in asymptomatic AS patients and potentially identifies high-risk patients who may benefit from early valve replacement. PMID:26491110

  7. Predicting Outcomes of Hospitalization for Heart Failure Using Logistic Regression and Knowledge Discovery Methods

    PubMed Central

    Phillips, Kirk T.; Street, W. Nick

    2005-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to determine the best prediction of heart failure outcomes, resulting from two methods -- standard epidemiologic analysis with logistic regression and knowledge discovery with supervised learning/data mining. Heart failure was chosen for this study as it exhibits higher prevalence and cost of treatment than most other hospitalized diseases. The prevalence of heart failure has exceeded 4 million cases in the U.S.. Findings of this study should be useful for the design of quality improvement initiatives, as particular aspects of patient comorbidity and treatment are found to be associated with mortality. This is also a proof of concept study, considering the feasibility of emerging health informatics methods of data mining in conjunction with or in lieu of traditional logistic regression methods of prediction. Findings may also support the design of decision support systems and quality improvement programming for other diseases. PMID:16779367

  8. Predicting the outcome of the growth of binary solids far from equilibrium

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mannige, Ranjan V.; Whitelam, Stephen

    2016-04-01

    The growth of multicomponent structures in simulations and experiments often results in kinetically trapped, nonequilibrium objects. In such cases we have no general theoretical framework for predicting the outcome of the growth process. Here we use computer simulations to study the growth of two-component structures within a simple lattice model. We show that kinetic trapping happens for many choices of growth rate and intercomponent interaction energies, and that qualitatively distinct kinds of kinetic trapping are found in different regions of parameter space. In a region in which the low-energy structure is an "antiferromagnet" or "checkerboard," we show that the grown nonequilibrium structure displays a component-type stoichiometry that is different from the equilibrium one but is insensitive to growth rate and solution conditions. This robust nonequilibrium stoichiometry can be predicted via a mapping to the jammed random tiling of dimers studied by Flory, a finding that suggests a way of making defined nonequilibrium structures in experiment.

  9. Prediction of treatment outcomes in psychiatry--where do we stand ?

    PubMed

    McMahon, Francis J

    2014-12-01

    Psychiatric treatment relies on a solid armamentarium of pharmacologic and nonpharmacologic treatment modalities that perform reasonably well for many patients but leave others in a state of chronic disability or troubled by problematic side effects. Treatment planning in psychiatry remains an art that depends on considerable trial and error. Thus, there is an urgent need for better tools that will provide a means for matching individual patients with the most effective treatments while minimizing the risk of adverse events. This review will consider the current state of the science in predicting treatment outcomes in psychiatry. Genetic and other biomarkers will be considered alongside clinical diagnostic, and family history data. Problems inherent in prediction medicine will also be discussed, along with recent developments that support the hope that psychiatry can do a better job in quickly identifying the best treatments for each patient.

  10. Predicting the outcome of the growth of binary solids far from equilibrium.

    PubMed

    Mannige, Ranjan V; Whitelam, Stephen

    2016-04-01

    The growth of multicomponent structures in simulations and experiments often results in kinetically trapped, nonequilibrium objects. In such cases we have no general theoretical framework for predicting the outcome of the growth process. Here we use computer simulations to study the growth of two-component structures within a simple lattice model. We show that kinetic trapping happens for many choices of growth rate and intercomponent interaction energies, and that qualitatively distinct kinds of kinetic trapping are found in different regions of parameter space. In a region in which the low-energy structure is an "antiferromagnet" or "checkerboard," we show that the grown nonequilibrium structure displays a component-type stoichiometry that is different from the equilibrium one but is insensitive to growth rate and solution conditions. This robust nonequilibrium stoichiometry can be predicted via a mapping to the jammed random tiling of dimers studied by Flory, a finding that suggests a way of making defined nonequilibrium structures in experiment. PMID:27176283

  11. Predicted and experienced affective responses to the outcome of the 2008 U.S. presidential election.

    PubMed

    Kitchens, Michael B; Corser, Grant C; Gohm, Carol L; VonWaldner, Kristen L; Foreman, Elizabeth L

    2010-12-01

    People typically have intense feelings about politics. Therefore, it was no surprise that the campaign and eventual election of Barack Obama were highly anticipated and emotionally charged events, making it and the emotion experienced afterward a useful situation in which to replicate prior research showing that people typically overestimate the intensity and duration of their future affective states. Consequently, it was expected that Obama supporters and McCain supporters might overestimate the intensity of their affective responses to the outcome of the election. Data showed that while McCain supporters underestimated how happy they would be following the election, Obama supporters accurately predicted how happy they would be following the election. These data provide descriptive information on the accuracy of people's predicted reactions to the 2008 U.S. presidential election. The findings are discussed in the context of the broad literature and this specific and unique event. PMID:21323142

  12. Prediction of treatment outcomes in psychiatry—where do we stand ?

    PubMed Central

    McMahon, Francis J.

    2014-01-01

    Psychiatric treatment relies on a solid armamentarium of pharmacologic and nonpharmacologic treatment modalities that perform reasonably well for many patients but leave others in a state of chronic disability or troubled by problematic side effects. Treatment planning in psychiatry remains an art that depends on considerable trial and error. Thus, there is an urgent need for better tools that will provide a means for matching individual patients with the most effective treatments while minimizing the risk of adverse events. This review will consider the current state of the science in predicting treatment outcomes in psychiatry. Genetic and other biomarkers will be considered alongside clinical diagnostic, and family history data. Problems inherent in prediction medicine will also be discussed, along with recent developments that support the hope that psychiatry can do a better job in quickly identifying the best treatments for each patient. PMID:25733951

  13. Validation that Metabolic Tumor Volume Predicts Outcome in Head-and-Neck Cancer

    SciTech Connect

    Tang, Chad; Murphy, James D.; Khong, Brian; La, Trang H.; Kong, Christina; Fischbein, Nancy J.; Colevas, A. Dimitrios; Iagaru, Andrei H.; Graves, Edward E.; Loo, Billy W.; Le, Quynh-Thu

    2012-08-01

    Purpose: We have previously reported that metabolic tumor volume (MTV) obtained from pretreatment {sup 18}F-fluorodeoxydeglucose positron emission tomography (FDG PET)/ computed tomography (CT) predicted outcome in patients with head-and-neck cancer (HNC). The purpose of this study was to validate these results on an independent dataset, determine whether the primary tumor or nodal MTV drives this correlation, and explore the interaction with p16{sup INK4a} status as a surrogate marker for human papillomavirus (HPV). Methods and Materials: The validation dataset in this study included 83 patients with squamous cell HNC who had a FDG PET/CT scan before receiving definitive radiotherapy. MTV and maximum standardized uptake value (SUV{sub max}) were calculated for the primary tumor, the involved nodes, and the combination of both. The primary endpoint was to validate that MTV predicted progression-free survival and overall survival. Secondary analyses included determining the prognostic utility of primary tumor vs. nodal MTV. Results: Similarly to our prior findings, an increase in total MTV of 17 cm{sup 3} (difference between the 75th and 25th percentiles) was associated with a 2.1-fold increase in the risk of disease progression (p = 0.0002) and a 2.0-fold increase in the risk of death (p = 0.0048). SUV{sub max} was not associated with either outcome. Primary tumor MTV predicted progression-free (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.94; p < 0.0001) and overall (HR = 1.57; p < 0.0001) survival, whereas nodal MTV did not. In addition, MTV predicted progression-free (HR = 4.23; p < 0.0001) and overall (HR = 3.21; p = 0.0029) survival in patients with p16{sup INK4a}-positive oropharyngeal cancer. Conclusions: This study validates our previous findings that MTV independently predicts outcomes in HNC. MTV should be considered as a potential risk-stratifying biomarker in future studies of HNC.

  14. Predicting High School Outcomes in the Baltimore City Public Schools. The Senior Urban Education Research Fellowship Series. Volume VII

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mac Iver, Martha Abele; Messel, Matthew

    2012-01-01

    This study of high school outcomes in the Baltimore City Public Schools builds on substantial prior research on the early warning indicators of dropping out. It sought to investigate whether the same variables that predicted a non-graduation outcome in other urban districts--attendance, behavior problems, and course failure--were also significant…

  15. Evaluating a theory of stress and adjustment when predicting long-term psychosocial outcome after brain injury.

    PubMed

    Rutterford, Neil A; Wood, Rodger L

    2006-05-01

    Kendall and Terry (1996) include many psychosocial predictors in their theoretical model that explains individual differences in psychosocial adjustment (Lazarus & Folkman, 1984). The model depicts appraisal and coping variables as mediating relationships between situation factors, environmental and personal resources, and multidimensional outcome. The aim of this study was to explore these theoretical relationships at very late stages of recovery from traumatic brain injury. A total of 131 participants who were more than 10 years post-injury (mean = 15.31 years) completed several psychosocial measures relating to outcome dimensions comprising employment, community integration, life satisfaction, quality of life (QoL), and emotion. There was no evidence that appraisal and coping variables mediated relationships between psychosocial and any of the outcome variables. However, when appraisal and coping variables were combined with psychosocial variables as direct predictors of outcome, every outcome except employment status was reliably predicted, accounting for between 31 and 46% of the variance. Personality significantly influenced all predicted outcomes. Self-efficacy contributed to the prediction of all outcomes except QoL. Data did not support for the theory of stress and adjustment as a framework for explaining the nature of predictive relationships between psychosocial variables and very long-term, multidimensional outcome after brain injury.

  16. Multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging predicts clinical outcomes in patients with chronic liver disease

    PubMed Central

    Pavlides, Michael; Banerjee, Rajarshi; Sellwood, Joanne; Kelly, Catherine J.; Robson, Matthew D.; Booth, Jonathan C.; Collier, Jane; Neubauer, Stefan; Barnes, Eleanor

    2016-01-01

    Background & Aims Multiparametric magnetic resonance (MR) imaging has been demonstrated to quantify hepatic fibrosis, iron, and steatosis. The aim of this study was to determine if MR can be used to predict negative clinical outcomes in liver disease patients. Methods Patients with chronic liver disease (n = 112) were recruited for MR imaging and data on the development of liver related clinical events were collected by medical records review. The median follow-up was 27 months. MR data were analysed blinded for the Liver Inflammation and Fibrosis score (LIF; <1, 1–1.99, 2–2.99, and ⩾3 representing normal, mild, moderate, and severe liver disease, respectively), T2∗ for liver iron content and proportion of liver fat. Baseline liver biopsy was performed in 102 patients. Results Liver disease aetiologies included non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (35%) and chronic viral hepatitis (30%). Histologically, fibrosis was mild in 54 (48%), moderate in 17 (15%), and severe in 31 (28%) patients. Overall mortality was 5%. Ten patients (11%) developed at least one liver related clinical event. The negative predictive value of LIF <2 was 100%. Two patients with LIF 2–2.99 and eight with LIF ⩾3 had a clinical event. Patients with LIF ⩾3 had a higher cumulative risk for developing clinical events, compared to those with LIF <1 (p = 0.02) and LIF 1–1.99 (p = 0.03). Cox regression analysis including all 3 variables (fat, iron, LIF) resulted in an enhanced LIF predictive value. Conclusions Non-invasive standardised multiparametric MR technology may be used to predict clinical outcomes in patients with chronic liver disease. PMID:26471505

  17. Predicting Outcome in Patients with Rhabdomyosarcoma: Role of [{sup 18}F]Fluorodeoxyglucose Positron Emission Tomography

    SciTech Connect

    Casey, Dana L.; Wexler, Leonard H.; Fox, Josef J.; Dharmarajan, Kavita V.; Schoder, Heiko; Price, Alison N.; Wolden, Suzanne L.

    2014-12-01

    Purpose: To evaluate whether [{sup 18}F]fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) response of the primary tumor after induction chemotherapy predicts outcomes in rhabdomyosarcoma (RMS). Methods and Materials: After excluding those with initial tumor resection, 107 patients who underwent FDG-PET after induction chemotherapy at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center from 2002 to 2013 were reviewed. Local control (LC), progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS) were calculated according to FDG-PET response and maximum standardized uptake value (SUV) at baseline (PET1/SUV1), after induction chemotherapy (PET2/SUV2), and after local therapy (PET3/SUV3). Receiver operator characteristic curves were used to determine the optimal cutoff for dichotomization of SUV1 and SUV2 values. Results: The SUV1 (<9.5 vs ≥9.5) was predictive of PFS (P=.02) and OS (P=.02), but not LC. After 12 weeks (median) of induction chemotherapy, 45 patients had negative PET2 scans and 62 had positive scans: 3-year PFS was 72% versus 44%, respectively (P=.01). The SUV2 (<1.5 vs ≥1.5) was similarly predictive of PFS (P=.005) and was associated with LC (P=.02) and OS (P=.03). A positive PET3 scan was predictive of worse PFS (P=.0009), LC (P=.05), and OS (P=.03). Conclusions: [{sup 18}F]fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography is an early indicator of outcomes in patients with RMS. Future prospective trials may incorporate FDG-PET response data for risk-adapted therapy and early assessment of new treatment regimens.

  18. Using Innovative Acoustic Analysis to Predict the Postoperative Outcomes of Unilateral Vocal Fold Paralysis

    PubMed Central

    Tsou, Yung-An; Chen, Wei-Chen; Ke, Hsiang-Chun; Lin, Wen-Yang; Yang, Hsing-Rong; Shie, Dung-Yun; Tsai, Ming-Hsui

    2016-01-01

    Objective. Autologous fat injection laryngoplasty is ineffective for some patients with iatrogenic vocal fold paralysis, and additional laryngeal framework surgery is often required. An acoustically measurable outcome predictor for lipoinjection laryngoplasty would assist phonosurgeons in formulating treatment strategies. Methods. Seventeen thyroid surgery patients with unilateral vocal fold paralysis participated in this study. All subjects underwent lipoinjection laryngoplasty to treat postsurgery vocal hoarseness. After treatment, patients were assigned to success and failure groups on the basis of voice improvement. Linear prediction analysis was used to construct a new voice quality indicator, the number of irregular peaks (NIrrP). It compared with the measures used in the Multi-Dimensional Voice Program (MDVP), such as jitter (frequency perturbation) and shimmer (perturbation of amplitude). Results. By comparing the [i] vowel produced by patients before the lipoinjection laryngoplasty (AUC = 0.98, 95% CI = 0.78–0.99), NIrrP was shown to be a more accurate predictor of long-term surgical outcomes than jitter (AUC = 0.73, 95% CI = 0.47–0.91) and shimmer (AUC = 0.63, 95% CI = 0.37–0.85), as identified by the receiver operating characteristic curve. Conclusions. NIrrP measured using the LP model could be a more accurate outcome predictor than the parameters used in the MDVP. PMID:27738634

  19. Predicting outcome after traumatic brain injury: practical prognostic models based on large cohort of international patients

    PubMed Central

    2008-01-01

    Objective To develop and validate practical prognostic models for death at 14 days and for death or severe disability six months after traumatic brain injury. Design Multivariable logistic regression to select variables that were independently associated with two patient outcomes. Two models designed: “basic” model (demographic and clinical variables only) and “CT” model (basic model plus results of computed tomography). The models were subsequently developed for high and low-middle income countries separately. Setting Medical Research Council (MRC) CRASH Trial. Subjects 10 008 patients with traumatic brain injury. Models externally validated in a cohort of 8509. Results The basic model included four predictors: age, Glasgow coma scale, pupil reactivity, and the presence of major extracranial injury. The CT model also included the presence of petechial haemorrhages, obliteration of the third ventricle or basal cisterns, subarachnoid bleeding, midline shift, and non-evacuated haematoma. In the derivation sample the models showed excellent discrimination (C statistic above 0.80). The models showed good calibration graphically. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test also indicated good calibration, except for the CT model in low-middle income countries. External validation for unfavourable outcome at six months in high income countries showed that basic and CT models had good discrimination (C statistic 0.77 for both models) but poorer calibration. Conclusion Simple prognostic models can be used to obtain valid predictions of relevant outcomes in patients with traumatic brain injury. PMID:18270239

  20. Spiritual Awakening Predicts Improved Drinking Outcomes in a Polish Treatment Sample

    PubMed Central

    Strobbe, Stephen; Cranford, James A.; Wojnar, Marcin; Brower, Kirk J.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose This study examined concurrent and longitudinal associations between two dimensions of affiliation in Alcoholics Anonymous (AA)—attendance and spiritual awakening—and drinking outcomes among adult patients who were in treatment for alcohol dependence in Warsaw, Poland. In a study conducted at four addiction treatment centers, male and female patients (n = 118) with a DSM-IV diagnosis of alcohol dependence were assessed at baseline (Time 1 or T1), one month (T2), and 6 to 12 months post-baseline (T3) for AA meeting attendance, various aspects of AA affiliation, and alcohol use. AA meeting attendance and alcohol consumption were measured using the Timeline Followback (TLFB) interview. Self-report of having had a spiritual awakening was measured using a modified version of the Alcoholics Anonymous Involvement (AAI) scale. Results There were no cross-sectional or longitudinal associations between AA meeting attendance and improved drinking outcomes. In contrast, self-report of a spiritual awakening between T2 and T3 was significantly associated with abstinence (OR = 2.4, p < .05) and the absence of any heavy drinking (OR = 3.0, p < .05) at T3, even when demographic and clinical characteristics were statistically controlled. Conclusions Self-reports of spiritual awakening predicted improved drinking outcomes in a Polish treatment sample. PMID:24335767

  1. Predicting Outcome of Childhood Bacterial Meningitis With a Single Measurement of C-Reactive Protein

    PubMed Central

    Peltola, Heikki; Roine, Irmeli; Cruzeiro, Manuel Leite; Bernardino, Luis

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: C-reactive protein (CRP), a marker of inflammation, shows high serum levels in invasive bacterial infections. We investigated the potential of a single CRP measurement at different phases of acute childhood bacterial meningitis to predict outcomes. Methods: Using whole-blood finger-prick samples with no centrifugation, CRP was measured quantitatively on arrival and on day 3 or 4 in children participating in 2 prospective, randomized, double-blind treatment studies conducted in Latin America or Angola. The results were compared with patient outcomes. Results: Although initial CRP values from 669 children gave useful prognostic information, the 3rd or 4th day measurements taken from 275 children associated significantly with seizures, slow recovery and low scores on the Glasgow Outcome Scale, with odds ratios for CRP values above the median (62 mg/L) ranging from 2 to 6, 2 to 5, and 3 to 5 (Latin America–Angola), respectively. Hearing impairment, although not full deafness, was 3 to 7 times more likely if CRP was above the median soon after hospitalization. Conclusions: Especially in resource-poor settings, clinicians have few simple-enough tools to identify the child with meningitis who requires maximum attention. CRP is a worthy addition. PMID:26986770

  2. Spontaneous eye blink rate predicts learning from negative, but not positive, outcomes.

    PubMed

    Slagter, Heleen A; Georgopoulou, Katerina; Frank, Michael J

    2015-05-01

    A large body of research shows that striatal dopamine critically affects the extent to which we learn from the positive and negative outcomes of our decisions. In this study, we examined the relationship between reinforcement learning and spontaneous eye blink rate (sEBR), a cheap, non-invasive, and easy to obtain marker of striatal dopaminergic activity. Based on previous findings from pharmacological and patient studies, our main prediction was that in healthy individuals, low blink rates (and concomitant lower striatal dopamine levels) would be associated with better learning from negative choices, while high blink rates (and concomitant higher striatal dopamine levels) would be associated with learning from positive choices. Behavioral analyses showed that in healthy individuals, lower blink rates were indeed associated with greater learning from negative outcomes, indicating that lower dopamine levels per se may enhance avoidance learning. Yet, higher EBR was not associated with better learning from positive outcomes. These observations support the notion that sEBR reflects tonic dopamine levels, and suggest that sEBR may specifically relate to dopamine D2 receptor function, given the importance of the dopaminergic D2 pathway in avoidance learning. More generally, these findings highlight the usefulness of sEBR as a non-invasive and cheap method for assessing the relationship between striatal dopaminergic function and behavior.

  3. Clinical outcome prediction in aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage – Alterations in brain–body interface

    PubMed Central

    Lo, Benjamin W. Y.; Fukuda, Hitoshi; Angle, Mark; Teitelbaum, Jeanne; Macdonald, R. Loch; Farrokhyar, Forough; Thabane, Lehana; Levine, Mitchell A. H.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Brain–body associations are essential in influencing outcome in patients with ruptured brain aneurysms. Thus far, there is scarce literature on such important relationships. Methods: The multicenter Tirilazad database (3551 patients) was used to create this clinical outcome prediction model in order to elucidate significant brain–body associations. Traditional binary logistic regression models were used. Results: Binary logistic regression main effects model included four statistically significant single prognostic variables, namely, neurological grade, age, stroke, and time to surgery. Logistic regression models demonstrated the significance of hypertension and liver disease in development of brain swelling, as well as the negative consequences of seizures in patients with a history of myocardial infarction and post-admission fever worsening neurological outcome. Conclusions: Using the aforementioned results generated from binary logistic regression models, we can identify potential patients who are in the high risk group of neurological deterioration. Specific therapies can be tailored to prevent these detriments, including treatment of hypertension, seizures, early detection and treatment of myocardial infarction, and prevention of hepatic encephalopathy. PMID:27583179

  4. Couples' agreement on presenting problems predicts engagement and outcomes in problem-focused couple therapy.

    PubMed

    Biesen, Judith N; Doss, Brian D

    2013-08-01

    This study investigated the impact of couples' agreement regarding relationship problems at therapy intake on subsequent treatment engagement and success. One hundred and 47 couples seeking marital therapy at one of two Veteran Administration Medical Centers completed questionnaires assessing relationship satisfaction and were asked to indicate their three biggest relationship concerns. Agreement on relationship concern was defined as one person's list containing the partner's top relationship problem. Pretreatment agreement on relationship problems was unrelated to treatment course or outcomes when the therapy was longer and more integrative in nature. However, when couples received a brief, problem-focused treatment, agreement predicted greater engagement in therapy process and more positive treatment outcomes. Specifically, couples who were in agreement were more likely to attend the minimum number of required sessions and were more likely to be assessed as having received a full course of therapy by their treatment provider. Additionally, partners who agreed with each other were more likely to experience clinically significant changes during treatment. Taken together, results suggest that therapists and researchers should consider assessing agreement on relationship problems at the beginning of treatment and potentially suggest that couples who perceive their relationship differently should receive more integrative treatment. Future research is needed to examine the most effective sequencing for addressing differing, presenting problems as well as the mechanisms through which disagreement on presenting problems impacts treatment course and outcomes.

  5. Microsatellite Instability Predicts Clinical Outcome in Radiation-Treated Endometrioid Endometrial Cancer

    SciTech Connect

    Bilbao, Cristina; Lara, Pedro Carlos; Ramirez, Raquel; Henriquez-Hernandez, Luis Alberto; Rodriguez, German; Falcon, Orlando; Leon, Laureano; Perucho, Manuel

    2010-01-15

    Purpose: To elucidate whether microsatellite instability (MSI) predicts clinical outcome in radiation-treated endometrioid endometrial cancer (EEC). Methods and Materials: A consecutive series of 93 patients with EEC treated with extrafascial hysterectomy and postoperative radiotherapy was studied. The median clinical follow-up of patients was 138 months, with a maximum of 232 months. Five quasimonomorphic mononucleotide markers (BAT-25, BAT-26, NR21, NR24, and NR27) were used for MSI classification. Results: Twenty-five patients (22%) were classified as MSI. Both in the whole series and in early stages (I and II), univariate analysis showed a significant association between MSI and poorer 10-year local disease-free survival, disease-free survival, and cancer-specific survival. In multivariate analysis, MSI was excluded from the final regression model in the whole series, but in early stages MSI provided additional significant predictive information independent of traditional prognostic and predictive factors (age, stage, grade, and vascular invasion) for disease-free survival (hazard ratio [HR] 3.25, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-10.49; p = 0.048) and cancer-specific survival (HR 4.20, 95% CI 1.23-14.35; p = 0.022) and was marginally significant for local disease-free survival (HR 3.54, 95% CI 0.93-13.46; p = 0.064). Conclusions: These results suggest that MSI may predict radiotherapy response in early-stage EEC.

  6. Fuzzy logic-based prognostic score for outcome prediction in esophageal cancer.

    PubMed

    Wang, Chang-Yu; Lee, Tsair-Fwu; Fang, Chun-Hsiung; Chou, Jyh-Horng

    2012-11-01

    Given the poor prognosis of esophageal cancer and the invasiveness of combined modality treatment, improved prognostic scoring systems are needed. We developed a fuzzy logic-based system to improve the predictive performance of a risk score based on the serum concentrations of C-reactive protein (CRP) and albumin in a cohort of 271 patients with esophageal cancer before radiotherapy. Univariate and multivariate survival analyses were employed to validate the independent prognostic value of the fuzzy risk score. To further compare the predictive performance of the fuzzy risk score with other prognostic scoring systems, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis was used. Application of fuzzy logic to the serum values of CRP and albumin increased predictive performance for 1-year overall survival (AUC=0.773) compared with that of a single marker (AUC=0.743 and 0.700 for CRP and albumin, respectively), where the AUC denotes the area under curve. This fuzzy logic-based approach also performed consistently better than the Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS) (AUC=0.745). Thus, application of fuzzy logic to the analysis of serum markers can more accurately predict the outcome for patients with esophageal cancer.

  7. The burden of the systemic inflammatory response predicts vasospasm and outcome after subarachnoid hemorrhage

    PubMed Central

    Dhar, Rajat; Diringer, Michael N.

    2008-01-01

    Introduction: Subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) can trigger immune activation sufficient to induce the systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS). This may promote both extra-cerebral organ dysfunction and delayed cerebral ischemia, contributing to worse outcome. We ascertained the frequency and predictors of SIRS after spontaneous SAH, and determined whether degree of early systemic inflammation predicted the occurrence of vasospasm and clinical outcome. Methods: Retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data on 276 consecutive patients admitted to a neurosciences intensive care unit with acute, non-traumatic SAH between 2002 and 2005. A daily SIRS score was derived by summing the number of variables meeting standard criteria (HR >90, RR >20, Temperature >38°C or <36°C, WBC count <4,000 or >12,000). SIRS was considered present if two or more criteria were met, while SIRS burden over the first four days was calculated by averaging daily scores. Regression modeling was used to determine the relationship between SIRS burden (after controlling for confounders including infection, surgery, and corticosteroid use), symptomatic vasospasm, and outcome, determined by hospital disposition. Results: SIRS was present in over half the patients on admission and developed in 85% within the first four days. Factors associated with SIRS included poor clinical grade, thick cisternal blood, larger aneurysm size, higher admission blood pressure, and surgery for aneurysm clipping. Higher SIRS burden was independently associated with death or discharge to nursing home (OR 2.20/point, 95% CI 1.27-3.81). All of those developing clinical vasospasm had evidence of SIRS, with greater SIRS burden predicting increased risk for delayed ischemic neurological deficits (OR 1.77/point, 95% CI 1.12-2.80). Conclusions: Systemic inflammatory activation is common after SAH even in the absence of infection; it is more frequent in those with more severe hemorrhage and in those who undergo

  8. Multiscale modeling and distributed computing to predict cosmesis outcome after a lumpectomy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garbey, M.; Salmon, R.; Thanoon, D.; Bass, B. L.

    2013-07-01

    Surgery for early stage breast carcinoma is either total mastectomy (complete breast removal) or surgical lumpectomy (only tumor removal). The lumpectomy or partial mastectomy is intended to preserve a breast that satisfies the woman's cosmetic, emotional and physical needs. But in a fairly large number of cases the cosmetic outcome is not satisfactory. Today, predicting that surgery outcome is essentially based on heuristic. Modeling such a complex process must encompass multiple scales, in space from cells to tissue, as well as in time, from minutes for the tissue mechanics to months for healing. The goal of this paper is to present a first step in multiscale modeling of the long time scale prediction of breast shape after tumor resection. This task requires coupling very different mechanical and biological models with very different computing needs. We provide a simple illustration of the application of heterogeneous distributed computing and modular software design to speed up the model development. Our computational framework serves currently to test hypothesis on breast tissue healing in a pilot study with women who have been elected to undergo BCT and are being treated at the Methodist Hospital in Houston, TX.

  9. Gene panel model predictive of outcome in patients with prostate cancer.

    PubMed

    Rabiau, Nadège; Dantal, Yann; Guy, Laurent; Ngollo, Marjolaine; Dagdemir, Aslihan; Kemeny, Jean-Louis; Terris, Benoît; Vieillefond, Annick; Boiteux, Jean-Paul; Bignon, Yves-Jean; Bernard-Gallon, Dominique

    2013-08-01

    In men at high risk for prostate cancer, established clinical and pathological parameters provide only limited prognostic information. Here we analyzed a French cohort of 103 prostate cancer patients and developed a gene panel model predictive of outcome in this group of patients. The model comprised of a 15-gene TaqMan Low-Density Array (TLDA) card, with gene expressions compared to a standardized reference. The RQ value for each gene was calculated, and a scoring system was developed. Summing all the binary scores (0 or 1) corresponding to the 15 genes, a global score is obtained between 0 and 15. This global score can be compared to Gleason score (0 to 10) by recalculating it into a 0-10 scaled score. A scaled score ≥2 suggested that the patient is suffering from a prostate cancer, and a scaled score ≥7 flagged aggressive cancer. Statistical analyses demonstrated a strongly significant linear correlation (p=3.50E-08) between scaled score and Gleason score for this prostate cancer cohort (N=103). These results support the capacity of this designed 15 target gene TLDA card approach to predict outcome in prostate cancer, opening up a new avenue for personalized medicine through future independent replication and applications for rapid identification of aggressive prostate cancer phenotypes for early intervention.

  10. Predicting physical activity and outcome expectations in cancer survivors: an application of Self-Determination Theory.

    PubMed

    Wilson, Philip M; Blanchard, Chris M; Nehl, Eric; Baker, Frank

    2006-07-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the contributions of autonomous and controlled motives drawn from Self-Determination Theory (SDT; Intrinsic Motivation and Self-determination in Human Behavior. Plenum Press: New York, 1985; Handbook of Self-determination Research. University of Rochester Press: New York, 2002) towards predicting physical activity behaviours and outcome expectations in adult cancer survivors. Participants were cancer-survivors (N=220) and a non-cancer comparison cohort (N=220) who completed an adapted version of the Treatment Self-Regulation Questionnaire modified for physical activity behaviour (TSRQ-PA), an assessment of the number of minutes engaged in moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) weekly, and the anticipated outcomes expected from regular physical activity (OE). Simultaneous multiple regression analyses indicated that autonomous motives was the dominant predictor of OEs across both cancer and non-cancer cohorts (R(2adj)=0.29-0.43), while MVPA was predicted by autonomous (beta's ranged from 0.21 to 0.34) and controlled (beta's ranged from -0.04 to -0.23) motives after controlling for demographic considerations. Cancer status (cancer versus no cancer) did not moderate the motivation-physical activity relationship. Collectively, these findings suggest that the distinction between autonomous and controlled motives is useful and compliments a growing body of evidence supporting SDT as a framework for understanding motivational processes in physical activity contexts with cancer survivors. PMID:16304621

  11. Predicting physical activity and outcome expectations in cancer survivors: an application of Self-Determination Theory.

    PubMed

    Wilson, Philip M; Blanchard, Chris M; Nehl, Eric; Baker, Frank

    2006-07-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the contributions of autonomous and controlled motives drawn from Self-Determination Theory (SDT; Intrinsic Motivation and Self-determination in Human Behavior. Plenum Press: New York, 1985; Handbook of Self-determination Research. University of Rochester Press: New York, 2002) towards predicting physical activity behaviours and outcome expectations in adult cancer survivors. Participants were cancer-survivors (N=220) and a non-cancer comparison cohort (N=220) who completed an adapted version of the Treatment Self-Regulation Questionnaire modified for physical activity behaviour (TSRQ-PA), an assessment of the number of minutes engaged in moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) weekly, and the anticipated outcomes expected from regular physical activity (OE). Simultaneous multiple regression analyses indicated that autonomous motives was the dominant predictor of OEs across both cancer and non-cancer cohorts (R(2adj)=0.29-0.43), while MVPA was predicted by autonomous (beta's ranged from 0.21 to 0.34) and controlled (beta's ranged from -0.04 to -0.23) motives after controlling for demographic considerations. Cancer status (cancer versus no cancer) did not moderate the motivation-physical activity relationship. Collectively, these findings suggest that the distinction between autonomous and controlled motives is useful and compliments a growing body of evidence supporting SDT as a framework for understanding motivational processes in physical activity contexts with cancer survivors.

  12. Parent-child math anxiety and math-gender stereotypes predict adolescents' math education outcomes

    PubMed Central

    Casad, Bettina J.; Hale, Patricia; Wachs, Faye L.

    2015-01-01

    Two studies examined social determinants of adolescents' math anxiety including parents' own math anxiety and children's endorsement of math-gender stereotypes. In Study 1, parent-child dyads were surveyed and the interaction between parent and child math anxiety was examined, with an eye to same- and other-gender dyads. Results indicate that parent's math anxiety interacts with daughters' and sons' anxiety to predict math self-efficacy, GPA, behavioral intentions, math attitudes, and math devaluing. Parents with lower math anxiety showed a positive relationship to children's math outcomes when children also had lower anxiety. The strongest relationships were found with same-gender dyads, particularly Mother-Daughter dyads. Study 2 showed that endorsement of math-gender stereotypes predicts math anxiety (and not vice versa) for performance beliefs and outcomes (self-efficacy and GPA). Further, math anxiety fully mediated the relationship between gender stereotypes and math self-efficacy for girls and boys, and for boys with GPA. These findings address gaps in the literature on the role of parents' math anxiety in the effects of children's math anxiety and math anxiety as a mechanism affecting performance. Results have implications for interventions on parents' math anxiety and dispelling gender stereotypes in math classrooms. PMID:26579000

  13. Parent-child math anxiety and math-gender stereotypes predict adolescents' math education outcomes.

    PubMed

    Casad, Bettina J; Hale, Patricia; Wachs, Faye L

    2015-01-01

    Two studies examined social determinants of adolescents' math anxiety including parents' own math anxiety and children's endorsement of math-gender stereotypes. In Study 1, parent-child dyads were surveyed and the interaction between parent and child math anxiety was examined, with an eye to same- and other-gender dyads. Results indicate that parent's math anxiety interacts with daughters' and sons' anxiety to predict math self-efficacy, GPA, behavioral intentions, math attitudes, and math devaluing. Parents with lower math anxiety showed a positive relationship to children's math outcomes when children also had lower anxiety. The strongest relationships were found with same-gender dyads, particularly Mother-Daughter dyads. Study 2 showed that endorsement of math-gender stereotypes predicts math anxiety (and not vice versa) for performance beliefs and outcomes (self-efficacy and GPA). Further, math anxiety fully mediated the relationship between gender stereotypes and math self-efficacy for girls and boys, and for boys with GPA. These findings address gaps in the literature on the role of parents' math anxiety in the effects of children's math anxiety and math anxiety as a mechanism affecting performance. Results have implications for interventions on parents' math anxiety and dispelling gender stereotypes in math classrooms.

  14. Predictive Capability of Anorectal Physiologic Tests for Unfavorable Outcomes Following Biofeedback Therapy in Dyssynergic Defecation

    PubMed Central

    Shin, Jae Kook; Kim, Eun Sook; Yoon, Jin Young; Lee, Jin Ha; Jeon, Soung Min; Bok, Hyun Jung; Park, Jae Jun; Moon, Chang Mo; Hong, Sung Pil; Lee, Yong Chan; Kim, Won Ho

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to evaluate the predictive capability of anorectal physiologic tests for unfavorable outcomes prior to the initiation of biofeedback therapy in patients with dyssynergic defecation. We analyzed a total of 80 consecutive patients who received biofeedback therapy for chronic idiopathic functional constipation with dyssynergic defecation. After classifying the patients into two groups (responders and non-responders), univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to determine the predictors associated with the responsiveness to biofeedback therapy. Of the 80 patients, 63 (78.7%) responded to biofeedback therapy and 17 (21.3%) did not. On univariate analysis, the inability to evacuate an intrarectal balloon (P=0.028), higher rectal volume for first, urgent, and maximal sensation (P=0.023, P=0.008, P=0.007, respectively), and increased anorectal angle during squeeze (P=0.020) were associated with poor outcomes. On multivariate analysis, the inability to evacuate an intrarectal balloon (P=0.018) and increased anorectal angle during squeeze (P=0.029) were both found to be independently associated with a lack of response to biofeedback therapy. Our data show that the two anorectal physiologic test factors are associated with poor response to biofeedback therapy for patients with dyssynergic defecation. These findings may assist physicians in predicting the responsiveness to therapy for this patient population. PMID:20592899

  15. Knee shape might predict clinical outcome after an anterior cruciate ligament rupture.

    PubMed

    Eggerding, V; van Kuijk, K S R; van Meer, B L; Bierma-Zeinstra, S M A; van Arkel, E R A; Reijman, M; Waarsing, J H; Meuffels, D E

    2014-06-01

    We have investigated whether shape of the knee can predict the clinical outcome of patients after an anterior cruciate ligament rupture. We used statistical shape modelling to measure the shape of the knee joint of 182 prospectively followed patients on lateral and Rosenberg view radiographs of the knee after a rupture of the anterior cruciate ligament. Subsequently, we associated knee shape with the International Knee Documentation Committee subjective score at two years follow-up. The mean age of patients was 31 years (21 to 51), the majority were male (n = 121) and treated operatively (n = 135). We found two modes (shape variations) that were significantly associated with the subjective score at two years: one for the operatively treated group (p = 0.002) and one for the non-operatively treated group (p = 0.003). Operatively treated patients who had higher subjective scores had a smaller intercondylar notch and a smaller width of the intercondylar eminence. Non-operatively treated patients who scored higher on the subjective score had a more pyramidal intercondylar notch as opposed to one that was more dome-shaped. We conclude that the shape of the femoral notch and the intercondylar eminence is predictive of clinical outcome two years after a rupture of the anterior cruciate ligament.

  16. Repeat Catheter Ablation of Long-standing Persistent Atrial Fibrillation in Patients with a Total Atrial Fibrillation Duration of More Than 2 Years: Effects of the CHA2DS2-VASc Score and Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate on the Outcomes.

    PubMed

    Wang, Qian; Jiang, Shi-Li; Liu, Xu; Yang, Yi-Qing

    2016-01-01

    Objective Little is known about the outcome of repeat catheter ablation of long-standing persistent atrial fibrillation (AF) in patients with a total AF duration of more than 2 years. The main objective of this study was to explore the results and factors affecting the clinical success rate of these repeat procedures. Methods We enrolled 99 patients with a total AF duration of more than 2 years and recurrent atrial arrhythmias after the initial catheter ablation of long-standing persistent AF. The enrolled patients were divided into two groups named the AF-recurrence group (50 patients) and the atrial tachycardia (AT)-recurrence group (49 patients) and all underwent a strict follow-up. The quality of life (QOL) and AF-related symptom classification were assessed at baseline and at 24 months post re-ablation. Results After a mean follow-up of 31 months, 30 (30.3%) patients were free from arrhythmia recurrence, and the success rate in the AT-recurrence group was higher than that in the AF-recurrence group (32.7% vs. 28.0%, p=0.614). A Cox regression analysis revealed a CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥3 to be a predictor of recurrence. AF recurrent patients with an abnormal renal function were more prone to undergo a failed procedure. However, an abnormal renal function had no effect on the outcome of the repeat procedure for patients with AT recurrence. At the 24-month follow-up, patients maintaining sinus rhythm (SR) had a significantly improved QOL and AF-related symptoms. Conclusion The success rate of repeat procedures for long-standing persistent AF and a total AF duration of more than 2 years is poor for patients with a CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥3. An impaired renal function has an unfavorable effect on the outcome for patients with AF recurrence. For patients maintaining SR, both the QOL and AF symptomatology improve significantly. PMID:27629945

  17. Validation of ZAP-70 methylation and its relative significance in predicting outcome in chronic lymphocytic leukemia

    PubMed Central

    Claus, Rainer; Lucas, David M.; Ruppert, Amy S.; Williams, Katie E.; Weng, Daniel; Patterson, Kara; Zucknick, Manuela; Oakes, Christopher C.; Rassenti, Laura Z.; Greaves, Andrew W.; Geyer, Susan; Wierda, William G.; Brown, Jennifer R.; Gribben, John G.; Barrientos, Jacqueline C.; Rai, Kanti R.; Kay, Neil E.; Kipps, Thomas J.; Shields, Peter; Zhao, Weiqiang; Grever, Michael R.; Plass, Christoph

    2014-01-01

    ZAP-70 methylation 223 nucleotides downstream of transcription start (CpG+223) predicts outcome in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), but its impact relative to CD38 and ZAP-70 expression or immunoglobulin heavy chain variable region (IGHV) status is uncertain. Additionally, standardizing ZAP-70 expression analysis has been unsuccessful. CpG+223 methylation was quantitatively determined in 295 untreated CLL cases using MassARRAY. Impact on clinical outcome vs CD38 and ZAP-70 expression and IGHV status was evaluated. Cases with low methylation (<20%) had significantly shortened time to first treatment (TT) and overall survival (OS) (P < .0001). For TT, low methylation defined a large subset of ZAP-70 protein-negative cases with significantly shortened TT (median, 8.0 vs 3.9 years for high vs low methylation; hazard ratio [HR] = 0.43; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.25-0.74). Conversely, 16 ZAP-70 protein-positive cases with high methylation had poor outcome (median, 1.1 vs 2.3 years for high vs low methylation; HR = 1.62; 95% CI, 0.87-3.03). For OS, ZAP-70 methylation was the strongest risk factor; CD38 and ZAP-70 expression or IGHV status did not significantly improve OS prediction. A pyrosequencing assay was established that reproduced the MassARRAY data (κ coefficient > 0.90). Thus, ZAP-70 CpG+223 methylation represents a superior biomarker for TT and OS that can be feasibly measured, supporting its use in risk-stratifying CLL. PMID:24868078

  18. Predicting outcome in traumatic brain injury: Sharing experience of pilot traumatic brain injury registry

    PubMed Central

    Pal, Ranabir; Munivenkatappa, Ashok; Agrawal, Amit; Menon, Geetha R.; Galwankar, Sagar; Mohan, P. Rama; Kumar, S. Satish; Subrahmanyam, B. V.

    2016-01-01

    Background: A reliable prediction of outcome for the victims of traumatic brain injury (TBI) on admission is possible from concurrent data analysis from any systematic real-time registry. Objective: To determine the clinical relevance of the findings from our TBI registry to develop prognostic futuristic models with readily available traditional and novel predictors. Materials and Methods: Prospectively collected data using predesigned pro forma were analyzed from the first phase of a trauma registry from a South Indian Trauma Centre, compatible with computerized management system at electronic data entry and web data entry interface on demographics, clinical, management, and discharge status. Statistical Analysis: On univariate analysis, the variables with P < 0.15 were chosen for binary logistic model. On regression model, variables were selected with test of coefficient 0.001 and with Nagelkerke R2 with alpha error of 5%. Results: From 337 cases, predominantly males from rural areas in their productive age, road traffic injuries accounted for two-thirds cases, one-fourths occurred during postmonsoon while two-wheeler was the most common prerequisite. Fifty percent of patients had moderate to severe brain injury; the most common finding was unconsciousness followed by vomiting, ear bleed, seizures, and traumatic amnesia. Fifteen percent required intracranial surgery. Patients with severe Glasgow coma scale score were 4.5 times likely to have the fatal outcome (P = 0.003). Other important clinical variables accountable for fatal outcomes were oral bleeds and cervical spine injury while imperative socio-demographic risk correlates were age and seasons. Conclusion: TBI registry helped us finding predictors of clinical relevance for the outcomes in victims of TBI in search of prognostic futuristic models in TBI victims. PMID:27722114

  19. Predicting major outcomes in type 1 diabetes: a model development and validation study

    PubMed Central

    Soedamah-Muthu, Sabita S.; Vergouwe, Yvonne; Costacou, Tina; Miller, Rachel G.; Zgibor, Janice; Chaturvedi, Nish; Snell-Bergeon, Janet K.; Maahs, David M.; Rewers, Marian; Forsblom, Carol; Harjutsalo, Valma; Groop, Per-Henrik; Fuller, John H.; Moons, Karel G.M.; Orchard, Trevor J.

    2015-01-01

    Aims/hypothesis Type 1 diabetes is associated with a higher risk of major vascular complications and death. A reliable method that predicts these outcomes early in the disease process would be helpful in risk classification. We therefore developed such a prognostic model and quantified its performance in independent cohorts. Methods Data were analysed of 1,973 participants with type 1 diabetes who were followed for seven years in the EURODIAB Prospective Complications Study. Strong prognostic factors of major outcomes were combined in a Weibull regression model. The model performance was tested in three different prospective cohorts: Pittsburgh Epidemiology of Diabetes Complications study (EDC, n=554), Finnish Diabetic Nephropathy study (FinnDiane, n=2,999) and Coronary Artery Calcification in Type 1 Diabetes study (CACTI, n=580). Major outcomes included major coronary heart disease, stroke, end-stage renal failure, amputations, blindness and all-cause death. Results 95 EURODIAB patients with type 1 diabetes developed major outcomes during follow-up. Prognostic factors were age, glycated haemoglobin, waist-hip ratio, albumin/creatinine ratio, and HDL cholesterol. A high risk group could be identified with 15% risk after 3-years of follow-up, 24% after 5-years and 32% after 7-years. The discriminative ability of the model was adequate with a C-statistic of 0.74. Discrimination was similar or even better in the independent cohorts: EDC, C-statistic = 0.79; FinnDiane, 0.82; and CACTI, 0.73. Conclusions/Interpretation Our prognostic model that uses easily accessible clinical features can discriminate between type 1 diabetes patients with good and poor prognosis. Such a prognostic model may be helpful in clinical practice and for risk stratification in clinical trials. PMID:25186291

  20. Prediction of Bladder Outcomes after Traumatic Spinal Cord Injury: A Longitudinal Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Pavese, Chiara; Schneider, Marc P.; Schubert, Martin; Curt, Armin; Scivoletto, Giorgio; Finazzi-Agrò, Enrico; Mehnert, Ulrich; Abel, Rainer; Röhrich, Frank; Weidner, Norbert; Rupp, Rüdiger; Kessels, Alfons G.; Bachmann, Lucas M.; Kessler, Thomas M.

    2016-01-01

    Background Neurogenic bladder dysfunction represents one of the most common and devastating sequelae of traumatic spinal cord injury (SCI). As early prediction of bladder outcomes is essential to counsel patients and to plan neurourological management, we aimed to develop and validate a model to predict urinary continence and complete bladder emptying 1 y after traumatic SCI. Methods and Findings Using multivariate logistic regression analysis from the data of 1,250 patients with traumatic SCI included in the European Multicenter Spinal Cord Injury study, we developed two prediction models of urinary continence and complete bladder emptying 1 y after traumatic SCI and performed an external validation in 111 patients. As predictors, we evaluated age, gender, and all variables of the International Standards for Neurological Classification of Spinal Cord Injury (ISNCSCI) and of the Spinal Cord Independence Measure (SCIM). Urinary continence and complete bladder emptying 1 y after SCI were assessed through item 6 of SCIM. The full model relies on lower extremity motor score (LEMS), light-touch sensation in the S3 dermatome of ISNCSI, and SCIM subscale respiration and sphincter management: the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (aROC) was 0.936 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.922–0.951). The simplified model is based on LEMS only: the aROC was 0.912 (95% CI: 0.895–0.930). External validation of the full and simplified models confirmed the excellent predictive power: the aROCs were 0.965 (95% CI: 0.934–0.996) and 0.972 (95% CI 0.943–0.999), respectively. This study is limited by the substantial number of patients with a missing 1-y outcome and by differences between derivation and validation cohort. Conclusions Our study provides two simple and reliable models to predict urinary continence and complete bladder emptying 1 y after traumatic SCI. Early prediction of bladder function might optimize counselling and patient-tailored rehabilitative

  1. Lung Cancer Ablation: Technologies and Techniques

    PubMed Central

    Alexander, Erica S.; Dupuy, Damian E.

    2013-01-01

    The incidence of lung cancers in 2012 is estimated to reach 226,160 new cases, with only a third of patients suitable surgical candidates. Tumor ablation has emerged as an important and efficacious treatment option for nonsurgical lung cancer patients. This localized minimally invasive therapy is best suited for small oligonodular lesions or favorably located metastatic tumors. Radiofrequency ablation has been in use for over a decade, and newer modalities including microwave ablation, cryoablation, and irreversible electroporation have emerged as additional treatment options for patients. Ablation therapies can offer patients and clinicians a repeatable and effective therapy for palliation and, in some cases, cure of thoracic malignancies. This article discusses the available technologies and techniques available for tumor ablation of thoracic malignancies including patient selection, basic aspects of procedure technique, imaging follow-up, treatment outcomes, and comparisons between various therapies. PMID:24436530

  2. Precision test apparatus for evaluating the heating pattern of radiofrequency ablation devices.

    PubMed

    Chang, I; Beard, B

    2002-11-01

    Radiofrequency has established itself as a useful technique for managing cardiac arrhythmias and treating soft tissue tumors. However, despite its pervasive use, many of the biophysical principals needed to fully understand and optimize the radiofrequency ablation technique have not been explored. We have designed a test rig that is useful for studying the heat transfer mechanisms that affect the outcome of radiofrequency ablation devices. Using both solid and liquid phantom materials, which simulate body tissues and blood, the test rig is designed for systematic testing of the effects of predictable flow patterns on the temperature profiles generated within the solid phantom. The test rig consists of a custom built thermistor array, a linear test chamber, and a radiofrequency generator. We calibrate the flow of a liquid phantom material to demonstrate that predictable laminar flow profiles are generated. To demonstrate the performance of the ablation system, we present preliminary data attained using a commercially available cardiac ablation catheter. The advantages of this test system are its flexibility, its reproducibility, its precision, and its low cost. Thus, it is ideally suited for studying a variety of complex ablation problems involving multiple tissues types and complex blood flow geometries.

  3. Predictive factors of short term outcome after liver transplantation: A review.

    PubMed

    Bolondi, Giuliano; Mocchegiani, Federico; Montalti, Roberto; Nicolini, Daniele; Vivarelli, Marco; De Pietri, Lesley

    2016-07-14

    Liver transplantation represents a fundamental therapeutic solution to end-stage liver disease. The need for liver allografts has extended the set of criteria for organ acceptability, increasing the risk of adverse outcomes. Little is known about the early postoperative parameters that can be used as valid predictive indices for early graft function, retransplantation or surgical reintervention, secondary complications, long intensive care unit stay or death. In this review, we present state-of-the-art knowledge regarding the early post-transplantation tests and scores that can be applied during the first postoperative week to predict liver allograft function and patient outcome, thereby guiding the therapeutic and surgical decisions of the medical staff. Post-transplant clinical and biochemical assessment of patients through laboratory tests (platelet count, transaminase and bilirubin levels, INR, factor V, lactates, and Insulin Growth Factor 1) and scores (model for end-stage liver disease, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation, sequential organ failure assessment and model of early allograft function) have been reported to have good performance, but they only allow late evaluation of patient status and graft function, requiring days to be quantified. The indocyanine green plasma disappearance rate has long been used as a liver function assessment technique and has produced interesting, although not univocal, results when performed between the 1(th) and the 5(th) day after transplantation. The liver maximal function capacity test is a promising method of metabolic liver activity assessment, but its use is limited by economic cost and extrahepatic factors. To date, a consensual definition of early allograft dysfunction and the integration and validation of the above-mentioned techniques, through the development of numerically consistent multicentric prospective randomised trials, are necessary. The medical and surgical management of transplanted patients

  4. Role of ultrasonography in outcome prediction in subclinical hypothyroid patients treated with levothyroxine.

    PubMed

    Shin, Dong Yeob; Kim, Eun-Kyung; Lee, Eun Jig

    2010-01-01

    Progression to overt hypothyroidism and the associated adverse effects on lipid metabolism and the cardiovascular system are major concerns for patients diagnosed with subclinical hypothyroidism (SCH). No consensus regarding the clinical parameters associated with prognosis for this mild thyroid dysfunction has yet been established, although elevation of serum anti-thyroid peroxidase antibody (TPOAb) and decreased or heterogeneous echogenicity (diffuse thyroid disease, DT) on ultrasonography (US) are commonly observed. We investigated the value of ultrasonographic examination compared to the measurement of serum TPOAb and anti-thyroglobulin antibody (TgAb) for the evaluation of levothyroxine treatment on SCH. We analyzed 204 SCH patients who initially underwent thyroid ultrasonography and were given a low dose of levothyroxine for a mean of 6.94 months. Outcome was determined by the normalization or sustained elevation of serum TSH, and evaluated according to the presence of DT on subsequent US and serum TPOAb or TgAb. Sustained TSH elevation after levothyroxine replacement was more frequent in patients who initially showed DT on US, regardless of thyroid autoantibody level. Ultrasonographic morphology had a higher negative predictive value (81.8%) compared with the absence of TPOAb (73.9%) or TgAb (73.7%) and a similar positive predictive value (48.9%) to that of thyroid autoantibodies (46.8% for TPOAb and 50.0% for TgAb) in the outcome prediction of SCH. Thyroid US may provide valuable information on the course of SCH, and DT pattern can serve as a prognostic factor when combined with other known parameters. PMID:19823000

  5. Prognostic Value of Metabolic Tumor Volume and Velocity in Predicting Head-and-Neck Cancer Outcomes

    SciTech Connect

    Chu, Karen P.; Murphy, James D.; La, Trang H.; Krakow, Trevor E.; Iagaru, Andrei; Graves, Edward E.; Hsu, Annie; Maxim, Peter G.; Loo, Billy; Chang, Daniel T.; Le, Quynh-Thu

    2012-08-01

    Purpose: We previously showed that metabolic tumor volume (MTV) on positron emission tomography-computed tomography (PET-CT) predicts for disease recurrence and death in head-and-neck cancer (HNC). We hypothesized that increases in MTV over time would correlate with tumor growth and biology, and would predict outcome. We sought to examine tumor growth over time in serial pretreatment PET-CT scans. Methods and Materials: From 2006 to 2009, 51 patients had two PET-CT scans before receiving HNC treatment. MTV was defined as the tumor volume {>=}50% of maximum SUV (SUV{sub max}). MTV was calculated for the primary tumor, nodal disease, and composite (primary tumor + nodes). MTV and SUV velocity were defined as the change in MTV or SUV{sub max} over time, respectively. Cox regression analyses were used to examine correlations between SUV, MTV velocity, and outcome (disease progression and overall survival). Results: The median follow-up time was 17.5 months. The median time between PET-CT scans was 3 weeks. Unexpectedly, 51% of cases demonstrated a decrease in SUV{sub max} (average, -0.1 cc/week) and MTV (average, -0.3 cc/week) over time. Despite the variability in MTV, primary tumor MTV velocity predicted disease progression (hazard ratio 2.94; p = 0.01) and overall survival (hazard ratio 1.85; p = 0.03). Conclusions: Primary tumor MTV velocity appears to be a better prognostic indicator of disease progression and survival in comparison to nodal MTV velocity. However, substantial variability was found in PET-CT biomarkers between serial scans. Caution should be used when PET-CT biomarkers are integrated into clinical protocols for HNC.

  6. Mealtime problems predict outcome in clinical trial to improve nutrition in children with CF.

    PubMed

    Opipari-Arrigan, Lisa; Powers, Scott W; Quittner, Alexandra L; Stark, Lori J

    2010-01-01

    Better growth and nutritional status is strongly associated with better pulmonary function and survival in children with CF. Behavioral intervention is an efficacious treatment approach for improving calorie intake and weight gain in children with CF; and recently has been shown to facilitate maintenance of daily energy intake at 120% of the healthy population over a 2-year period. However, no study to date has examined factors that predict outcome with behavior intervention to promote weight gain in CF. The objectives of this study were to examine the influence of nutritional status, mealtime behavior problems, and maternal depressive symptoms on calorie intake and weight gain following participation in a randomized trial to improve nutritional status in cystic fibrosis. Sixty-seven children, aged 4-12 years with cystic fibrosis participated in a clinical trial targeting calorie and weight increases. Participants completed baseline measures of mealtime behavior problems, maternal depression, and fat absorption, and baseline and post-treatment caloric intake and weight. Assignment to behavioral group (R(2) change = 0.17), lower frequency of mealtime behavior problems (R(2) change = 0.11), and higher maternal depression (R(2) change = 0.06) predicted greater calorie increase baseline to post-treatment. Assignment to behavioral group (R(2) change = 0.09), higher baseline weight (R(2) change = 0.10), fat absorption (R(2) change = 0.02), and lower frequency of mealtime behavior problems (R(2) change = 0.06) predicted greater weight gain baseline to post-treatment. Less frequent mealtime behavior problems led to better calorie intake and weight gain in a 9-week clinical trial of behavior intervention and nutrition education to improve nutritional status in cystic fibrosis. The key implication from these findings is that early referral to behavioral intervention as soon as growth deficits become a concern will likely yield the best nutritional outcomes. PMID:19953660

  7. Predictive factors of short term outcome after liver transplantation: A review

    PubMed Central

    Bolondi, Giuliano; Mocchegiani, Federico; Montalti, Roberto; Nicolini, Daniele; Vivarelli, Marco; De Pietri, Lesley

    2016-01-01

    Liver transplantation represents a fundamental therapeutic solution to end-stage liver disease. The need for liver allografts has extended the set of criteria for organ acceptability, increasing the risk of adverse outcomes. Little is known about the early postoperative parameters that can be used as valid predictive indices for early graft function, retransplantation or surgical reintervention, secondary complications, long intensive care unit stay or death. In this review, we present state-of-the-art knowledge regarding the early post-transplantation tests and scores that can be applied during the first postoperative week to predict liver allograft function and patient outcome, thereby guiding the therapeutic and surgical decisions of the medical staff. Post-transplant clinical and biochemical assessment of patients through laboratory tests (platelet count, transaminase and bilirubin levels, INR, factor V, lactates, and Insulin Growth Factor 1) and scores (model for end-stage liver disease, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation, sequential organ failure assessment and model of early allograft function) have been reported to have good performance, but they only allow late evaluation of patient status and graft function, requiring days to be quantified. The indocyanine green plasma disappearance rate has long been used as a liver function assessment technique and has produced interesting, although not univocal, results when performed between the 1th and the 5th day after transplantation. The liver maximal function capacity test is a promising method of metabolic liver activity assessment, but its use is limited by economic cost and extrahepatic factors. To date, a consensual definition of early allograft dysfunction and the integration and validation of the above-mentioned techniques, through the development of numerically consistent multicentric prospective randomised trials, are necessary. The medical and surgical management of transplanted patients

  8. Predicting the In-Hospital Responsiveness to Treatment of Alcoholics. Social Factors as Predictors of Outcome. Brain Damage as a Factor in Treatment Outcome of Chronic Alcoholic Patients.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mascia, George V.; And Others

    The authors attempt to locate predictor variables associated with the outcome of alcoholic treatment programs. Muscia's study focuses on the predictive potential of: (1) response to a GSR conditioning procedure; (2) several personality variables; and (3) age and IQ measures. Nine variables, reflecting diverse perspectives, were selected as a basis…

  9. Radiological and Clinical Factors Predicting the Facial Nerve Outcome following Retrosigmoid Approach for Large Vestibular Schwannomas (VSs).

    PubMed

    Sharma, Mayur; Sonig, Ashish; Ambekar, Sudheer; Nanda, Anil

    2013-10-01

    Objective The aim of our study was to identify the radiological and clinical factors that predict postoperative facial nerve outcome following retrosigmoid approach for large vestibular schwannomas (VSs). Methods A total of 72 patients with large (≥ 3 cm) vestibular schwannomas was included in this retrospective study. Various parameters evaluated were age, gender, clinical presentation, tumor diameter in three planes, intrameatal extension, and pattern of growth. Results Age of the patient and presenting symptoms such as headache, ataxia, or preoperative facial nerve dysfunction correlated with poorer facial nerve outcome (p < 0.05). Patients with larger tumor volumes and extrameatal growth experienced a worse outcome (p < 0.05). Anterior and caudal extension (p = 0.001) correlated with poorer outcome, as well. Intrameatal extension and bony changes of the internal acoustic meatus did not correlate with the outcome (p > 0.05). Of the various examined factors, preoperative facial nerve function independently predicted postoperative facial nerve outcome. Conclusion Our study suggests that young patients with small tumor volume and normal facial nerve function at presentation are more likely to experience a good postoperative facial nerve outcome. These clinical and radiological parameters can be used to predict facial nerve outcome prior to surgery.

  10. Predicting Functional Performance and Range of Motion Outcomes After Total Knee Arthroplasty

    PubMed Central

    Bade, Michael J.; Kittelson, John M.; Kohrt, Wendy M.; Stevens-Lapsley, Jennifer E.

    2015-01-01

    Objective The aim of this study was to assess the predictive value of functional performance and range of motion measures on outcomes after total knee arthroplasty. Design This is a secondary analysis of two pooled prospective randomized controlled trials. Sixty-four subjects (32 men and 32 women) with end-stage knee osteoarthritis scheduled to undergo primary total knee arthroplasty were enrolled. Active knee flexion and extension range of motion, Timed Up and Go (TUG) test time, and 6-min walk test distance were assessed. Results Preoperative measures of knee flexion and extension were predictive of long-term flexion (β = 0.44, P < 0.001) and extension (β = 0.46, P < 0.001). Acute measures of knee flexion and extension were not predictive of long-term flexion (β= 0.09, P = 0.26) or extension (β = 0.04, P = 0.76). Preoperative TUG performance was predictive of long-term 6-min walk performance (β = −21, P < 0.001). Acute TUG performance was predictive of long-term functional performance on the 6-min walk test, after adjusting for the effects of sex and age (P = 0.02); however, once adjusted for preoperative TUG performance, acute TUG was no longer related to long-term 6-min walk performance (P = 0.65). Conclusions Acute postoperative measures of knee range of motion are of limited prognostic value, although preoperative measures have some prognostic value. However, acute measures of functional performance are of useful prognostic value, especially when preoperative functional performance data are unavailable. PMID:24508937

  11. A comparative analysis of methods for predicting clinical outcomes using high-dimensional genomic datasets

    PubMed Central

    Jiang, Xia; Cai, Binghuang; Xue, Diyang; Lu, Xinghua; Cooper, Gregory F; Neapolitan, Richard E

    2014-01-01

    Objective The objective of this investigation is to evaluate binary prediction methods for predicting disease status using high-dimensional genomic data. The central hypothesis is that the Bayesian network (BN)-based method called efficient Bayesian multivariate classifier (EBMC) will do well at this task because EBMC builds on BN-based methods that have performed well at learning epistatic interactions. Method We evaluate how well eight methods perform binary prediction using high-dimensional discrete genomic datasets containing epistatic interactions. The methods are as follows: naive Bayes (NB), model averaging NB (MANB), feature selection NB (FSNB), EBMC, logistic regression (LR), support vector machines (SVM), Lasso, and extreme learning machines (ELM). We use a hundred 1000-single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) simulated datasets, ten 10 000-SNP datasets, six semi-synthetic sets, and two real genome-wide association studies (GWAS) datasets in our evaluation. Results In fivefold cross-validation studies, the SVM performed best on the 1000-SNP dataset, while the BN-based methods performed best on the other datasets, with EBMC exhibiting the best overall performance. In-sample testing indicates that LR, SVM, Lasso, ELM, and NB tend to overfit the data. Discussion EBMC performed better than NB when there are several strong predictors, whereas NB performed better when there are many weak predictors. Furthermore, for all BN-based methods, prediction capability did not degrade as the dimension increased. Conclusions Our results support the hypothesis that EBMC performs well at binary outcome prediction using high-dimensional discrete datasets containing epistatic-like interactions. Future research using more GWAS datasets is needed to further investigate the potential of EBMC. PMID:24737607

  12. Optic Nerve Diffusion Tensor Imaging after Acute Optic Neuritis Predicts Axonal and Visual Outcomes

    PubMed Central

    van der Walt, Anneke; Kolbe, Scott C.; Wang, Yejun E.; Klistorner, Alexander; Shuey, Neil; Ahmadi, Gelareh; Paine, Mark; Marriott, Mark; Mitchell, Peter; Egan, Gary F.; Butzkueven, Helmut; Kilpatrick, Trevor J.

    2013-01-01

    Background Early markers of axonal and clinical outcomes are required for early phase testing of putative neuroprotective therapies for multiple sclerosis (MS). Objectives To assess whether early measurement of diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) parameters (axial and radial diffusivity) within the optic nerve during and after acute demyelinating optic neuritis (ON) could predict axonal (retinal nerve fibre layer thinning and multi-focal visual evoked potential amplitude reduction) or clinical (visual acuity and visual field loss) outcomes at 6 or 12 months. Methods Thirty-seven patients presenting with acute, unilateral ON were studied at baseline, one, three, six and 12 months using optic nerve DTI, clinical and paraclinical markers of axonal injury and clinical visual dysfunction. Results Affected nerve axial diffusivity (AD) was reduced at baseline, 1 and 3 months. Reduced 1-month AD correlated with retinal nerve fibre layer (RNFL) thinning at 6 (R=0.38, p=0.04) and 12 months (R=0.437, p=0.008) and VEP amplitude loss at 6 (R=0.414, p=0.019) and 12 months (R=0.484, p=0.003). AD reduction at three months correlated with high contrast visual acuity at 6 (ρ = -0.519, p = 0.001) and 12 months (ρ = -0.414, p=0.011). The time-course for AD reduction for each patient was modelled using a quadratic regression. AD normalised after a median of 18 weeks and longer normalisation times were associated with more pronounced RNFL thinning and mfVEP amplitude loss at 12 months. Affected nerve radial diffusivity (RD) was unchanged until three months, after which time it remained elevated. Conclusions These results demonstrate that AD reduces during acute ON. One month AD reduction correlates with the extent of axonal loss and persistent AD reduction at 3 months predicts poorer visual outcomes. This suggests that acute ON therapies that normalise optic nerve AD by 3 months could also promote axon survival and improve visual outcomes. PMID:24386285

  13. Diffusion Tensor Imaging for Outcome Prediction in Mild Traumatic Brain Injury: A TRACK-TBI Study

    PubMed Central

    Yuh, Esther L.; Cooper, Shelly R.; Mukherjee, Pratik; Yue, John K.; Lingsma, Hester F.; Gordon, Wayne A.; Valadka, Alex B.; Okonkwo, David O.; Schnyer, David M.; Vassar, Mary J.; Maas, Andrew I.R.; Casey, Scott S.; Cheong, Maxwell; Dams-O'Connor, Kristen; Hricik, Allison J.; Inoue, Tomoo; Menon, David K.; Morabito, Diane J.; Pacheco, Jennifer L.; Puccio, Ava M.; Sinha, Tuhin K.

    2014-01-01

    Abstract We evaluated 3T diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) for white matter injury in 76 adult mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI) patients at the semiacute stage (11.2±3.3 days), employing both whole-brain voxel-wise and region-of-interest (ROI) approaches. The subgroup of 32 patients with any traumatic intracranial lesion on either day-of-injury computed tomography (CT) or semiacute magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) demonstrated reduced fractional anisotropy (FA) in numerous white matter tracts, compared to 50 control subjects. In contrast, 44 CT/MRI-negative mTBI patients demonstrated no significant difference in any DTI parameter, compared to controls. To determine the clinical relevance of DTI, we evaluated correlations between 3- and 6-month outcome and imaging, demographic/socioeconomic, and clinical predictors. Statistically significant univariable predictors of 3-month Glasgow Outcome Scale-Extended (GOS-E) included MRI evidence for contusion (odds ratio [OR] 4.9 per unit decrease in GOS-E; p=0.01), ≥1 ROI with severely reduced FA (OR, 3.9; p=0.005), neuropsychiatric history (OR, 3.3; p=0.02), age (OR, 1.07/year; p=0.002), and years of education (OR, 0.79/year; p=0.01). Significant predictors of 6-month GOS-E included ≥1 ROI with severely reduced FA (OR, 2.7; p=0.048), neuropsychiatric history (OR, 3.7; p=0.01), and years of education (OR, 0.82/year; p=0.03). For the subset of 37 patients lacking neuropsychiatric and substance abuse history, MRI surpassed all other predictors for both 3- and 6-month outcome prediction. This is the first study to compare DTI in individual mTBI patients to conventional imaging, clinical, and demographic/socioeconomic characteristics for outcome prediction. DTI demonstrated utility in an inclusive group of patients with heterogeneous backgrounds, as well as in a subset of patients without neuropsychiatric or substance abuse history. PMID:24742275

  14. A Study of the Predictive Relationships between Faculty Engagement, Learner Satisfaction and Outcomes in Multiple Learning Delivery Modes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yen, Cherng-Jyh; Abdous, M'hammed

    2012-01-01

    This study assessed the predictive relationships between faculty engagement, learner satisfaction, and outcomes across multiple learning delivery modes (LDMs). Participants were enrolled in courses with the options of three learning delivery modes: face-to-face, satellite broadcasting, and live video-streaming. The predictive relationship between…

  15. The predictive effect of insight on adverse clinical outcomes in bipolar I disorder: a two-year prospective study.

    PubMed

    Yen, Cheng-Fang; Chen, Cheng-Sheng; Yen, Ju-Yu; Ko, Chih-Hung

    2008-05-01

    Research has revealed that a lack of insight is associated with poorer clinical outcomes in schizophrenia; however, the predictive value of insight on adverse clinical outcomes among bipolar patients is quite understudied. The aim of this prospective study was to examine the impact of insight on adverse clinical outcomes among the patients with bipolar I disorder over a 2-year period. Sixty-five remitted bipolar I disorder patients received follow-up assessments at 3, 6, 9, 12, 18, and 24 months to detect the adverse clinical outcomes defined by the incidence of bipolar-related psychiatric hospitalization, emergency room visits, violent or suicidal behavior. The Schedule of Assessment of Insight was used to provide a baseline insight score. Cox regression analysis was used to examine the predictive value of insight on the adverse clinical outcomes. Impaired insight into treatment and a greater number of previous hospitalizations significantly increased the risk of adverse clinical outcomes with bipolar disorder in the 2-year period. However, insight into recognition of the illness and re-labeling of psychotic phenomena did not have any significant effect on adverse clinical outcomes. Bipolar patients' insight into treatment is an independent predictor of adverse clinical outcomes. Improving insight into treatment might be a promising target for a better outcome. PMID:17997489

  16. Spirituality factors in the prediction of outcomes of PTSD treatment for U.S. military veterans.

    PubMed

    Currier, Joseph M; Holland, Jason M; Drescher, Kent D

    2015-02-01

    Spirituality is a multifaceted construct that might affect veterans' recovery from posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in adaptive and maladaptive ways. Using a cross-lagged panel design, this study examined longitudinal associations between spirituality and PTSD symptom severity among 532 U.S. veterans in a residential treatment program for combat-related PTSD. Results indicated that spirituality factors at the start of treatment were uniquely predictive of PTSD symptom severity at discharge, when accounting for combat exposure and both synchronous and autoregressive associations between the study variables, βs = .10 to .16. Specifically, veterans who scored higher on adaptive dimensions of spirituality (daily spiritual experiences, forgiveness, spiritual practices, positive religious coping, and organizational religiousness) at intake fared significantly better in this program. In addition, possible spiritual struggles (operationalized as negative religious coping) at baseline were predictive of poorer PTSD outcomes, β = .11. In contrast to these results, PTSD symptomatology at baseline did not predict any of the spirituality variables at posttreatment. In keeping with a spiritually integrative approach to treating combat-related PTSD, these results suggest that understanding the possible spiritual context of veterans' trauma-related concerns might add prognostic value and equip clinicians to alleviate PTSD symptomatology among those veterans who possess spiritual resources or are somehow struggling in this domain.

  17. Cytokine Profiles during Invasive Nontyphoidal Salmonella Disease Predict Outcome in African Children.

    PubMed

    Gilchrist, James J; Heath, Jennifer N; Msefula, Chisomo L; Gondwe, Esther N; Naranbhai, Vivek; Mandala, Wilson; MacLennan, Jenny M; Molyneux, Elizabeth M; Graham, Stephen M; Drayson, Mark T; Molyneux, Malcolm E; MacLennan, Calman A

    2016-07-01

    Nontyphoidal Salmonella is a leading cause of sepsis in African children. Cytokine responses are central to the pathophysiology of sepsis and predict sepsis outcome in other settings. In this study, we investigated cytokine responses to invasive nontyphoidal Salmonella (iNTS) disease in Malawian children. We determined serum concentrations of 48 cytokines with multiplexed immunoassays in Malawian children during acute iNTS disease (n = 111) and in convalescence (n = 77). Principal component analysis and logistic regression were used to identify cytokine signatures of acute iNTS disease. We further investigated whether these responses are altered by HIV coinfection or severe malnutrition and whether cytokine responses predict inpatient mortality. Cytokine changes in acute iNTS disease were associated with two distinct cytokine signatures. The first is characterized by increased concentrations of mediators known to be associated with macrophage function, and the second is characterized by raised pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines typical of responses reported in sepsis secondary to diverse pathogens. These cytokine responses were largely unaltered by either severe malnutrition or HIV coinfection. Children with fatal disease had a distinctive cytokine profile, characterized by raised mediators known to be associated with neutrophil function. In conclusion, cytokine responses to acute iNTS infection in Malawian children are reflective of both the cytokine storm typical of sepsis secondary to diverse pathogens and the intramacrophage replicative niche of NTS. The cytokine profile predictive of fatal disease supports a key role of neutrophils in the pathogenesis of NTS sepsis. PMID:27170644

  18. A Predictive Model for Diabetic Foot Ulcer Outcome: The Wound Healing Index

    PubMed Central

    Fife, Caroline E.; Horn, Susan D.; Smout, Randall J.; Barrett, Ryan S.; Thomson, Brett

    2016-01-01

    Objective: To develop a healing index for patients with diabetic foot ulcers (DFUs) for use in clinical practice, research analysis, and clinical trials. Approach: U.S. Wound Registry data were examined retrospectively and assigned a clear outcome (healed, amputated, etc.). Significant variables were identified with bivariate analyses. A multivariable logistic regression model was created based on significant factors (p < 0.05) and tested on a hold-out sample of data. Out of 13,266 DFUs from the original dataset, 6,440 were eligible for analysis. The logistic regression model included 5,239 ulcers, of which 3,462 healed (66.1%). The 10% validation sample utilized 555 ulcers, of which 377 healed (67.9%). Results: Variables that significantly predicted healing were as follows: wound age (duration in days), wound size, number of concurrent wounds of any etiology, evidence of bioburden/infection, patient age, Wagner grade, being nonambulatory, renal dialysis, renal transplant, peripheral vascular disease, and patient hospitalization for any reason. Innovation: We present a validated stratification system, previously described as the Wound Healing Index (WHI), which predicts healing likelihood of patients with DFUs, incorporating patient- and wound-specific variables. Conclusion: The DFU WHI is a comprehensive and user-friendly validated predictive model for DFU healing. It can risk stratify patients enrolled in clinical research trials, stratify patient data for quality reporting and benchmarking activities, and identify patients most likely to require costly therapy to heal. PMID:27366589

  19. Cytokine Profiles during Invasive Nontyphoidal Salmonella Disease Predict Outcome in African Children

    PubMed Central

    Gilchrist, James J.; Heath, Jennifer N.; Msefula, Chisomo L.; Gondwe, Esther N.; Naranbhai, Vivek; Mandala, Wilson; MacLennan, Jenny M.; Molyneux, Elizabeth M.; Graham, Stephen M.; Drayson, Mark T.; Molyneux, Malcolm E.

    2016-01-01

    Nontyphoidal Salmonella is a leading cause of sepsis in African children. Cytokine responses are central to the pathophysiology of sepsis and predict sepsis outcome in other settings. In this study, we investigated cytokine responses to invasive nontyphoidal Salmonella (iNTS) disease in Malawian children. We determined serum concentrations of 48 cytokines with multiplexed immunoassays in Malawian children during acute iNTS disease (n = 111) and in convalescence (n = 77). Principal component analysis and logistic regression were used to identify cytokine signatures of acute iNTS disease. We further investigated whether these responses are altered by HIV coinfection or severe malnutrition and whether cytokine responses predict inpatient mortality. Cytokine changes in acute iNTS disease were associated with two distinct cytokine signatures. The first is characterized by increased concentrations of mediators known to be associated with macrophage function, and the second is characterized by raised pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines typical of responses reported in sepsis secondary to diverse pathogens. These cytokine responses were largely unaltered by either severe malnutrition or HIV coinfection. Children with fatal disease had a distinctive cytokine profile, characterized by raised mediators known to be associated with neutrophil function. In conclusion, cytokine responses to acute iNTS infection in Malawian children are reflective of both the cytokine storm typical of sepsis secondary to diverse pathogens and the intramacrophage replicative niche of NTS. The cytokine profile predictive of fatal disease supports a key role of neutrophils in the pathogenesis of NTS sepsis. PMID:27170644

  20. Cytokine Profiles during Invasive Nontyphoidal Salmonella Disease Predict Outcome in African Children.

    PubMed

    Gilchrist, James J; Heath, Jennifer N; Msefula, Chisomo L; Gondwe, Esther N; Naranbhai, Vivek; Mandala, Wilson; MacLennan, Jenny M; Molyneux, Elizabeth M; Graham, Stephen M; Drayson, Mark T; Molyneux, Malcolm E; MacLennan, Calman A

    2016-07-01

    Nontyphoidal Salmonella is a leading cause of sepsis in African children. Cytokine responses are central to the pathophysiology of sepsis and predict sepsis outcome in other settings. In this study, we investigated cytokine responses to invasive nontyphoidal Salmonella (iNTS) disease in Malawian children. We determined serum concentrations of 48 cytokines with multiplexed immunoassays in Malawian children during acute iNTS disease (n = 111) and in convalescence (n = 77). Principal component analysis and logistic regression were used to identify cytokine signatures of acute iNTS disease. We further investigated whether these responses are altered by HIV coinfection or severe malnutrition and whether cytokine responses predict inpatient mortality. Cytokine changes in acute iNTS disease were associated with two distinct cytokine signatures. The first is characterized by increased concentrations of mediators known to be associated with macrophage function, and the second is characterized by raised pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines typical of responses reported in sepsis secondary to diverse pathogens. These cytokine responses were largely unaltered by either severe malnutrition or HIV coinfection. Children with fatal disease had a distinctive cytokine profile, characterized by raised mediators known to be associated with neutrophil function. In conclusion, cytokine responses to acute iNTS infection in Malawian children are reflective of both the cytokine storm typical of sepsis secondary to diverse pathogens and the intramacrophage replicative niche of NTS. The cytokine profile predictive of fatal disease supports a key role of neutrophils in the pathogenesis of NTS sepsis.

  1. Conflict and love: predicting newlywed marital outcomes from two interaction contexts.

    PubMed

    Graber, Elana C; Laurenceau, Jean-Philippe; Miga, Erin; Chango, Joanna; Coan, James

    2011-08-01

    Research on marital interaction has focused primarily on couples in conflict contexts to understand better processes associated with concurrent and longitudinal outcomes such as marital stability and quality. Although this work has consistently revealed particular emotions (e.g., contempt) or behavioral sequences (e.g., demand/withdraw) predictive of later marital distress, it largely has neglected to take positive contexts into consideration. The present longitudinal study begins to address this gap in the literature by directly comparing newlywed behaviors from a conflict-resolution interaction with those from a love-paradigm interaction to predict relationship satisfaction and divorce proneness approximately 15 months later. Results showed that actor and partner negative (contempt) and positive (affection) emotions elicited in both positive (i.e., love) and negative (i.e., conflict) interaction contexts emerged as unique predictors of relationship quality and stability for both husbands and wives. Moreover, using a linear growth model, the temporal course of positive emotion during the love context, but not the conflict context, was predictive of later relationship satisfaction. Implications for future marital research and intervention are discussed.

  2. Spirituality factors in the prediction of outcomes of PTSD treatment for U.S. military veterans.

    PubMed

    Currier, Joseph M; Holland, Jason M; Drescher, Kent D

    2015-02-01

    Spirituality is a multifaceted construct that might affect veterans' recovery from posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in adaptive and maladaptive ways. Using a cross-lagged panel design, this study examined longitudinal associations between spirituality and PTSD symptom severity among 532 U.S. veterans in a residential treatment program for combat-related PTSD. Results indicated that spirituality factors at the start of treatment were uniquely predictive of PTSD symptom severity at discharge, when accounting for combat exposure and both synchronous and autoregressive associations between the study variables, βs = .10 to .16. Specifically, veterans who scored higher on adaptive dimensions of spirituality (daily spiritual experiences, forgiveness, spiritual practices, positive religious coping, and organizational religiousness) at intake fared significantly better in this program. In addition, possible spiritual struggles (operationalized as negative religious coping) at baseline were predictive of poorer PTSD outcomes, β = .11. In contrast to these results, PTSD symptomatology at baseline did not predict any of the spirituality variables at posttreatment. In keeping with a spiritually integrative approach to treating combat-related PTSD, these results suggest that understanding the possible spiritual context of veterans' trauma-related concerns might add prognostic value and equip clinicians to alleviate PTSD symptomatology among those veterans who possess spiritual resources or are somehow struggling in this domain. PMID:25624135

  3. Individualised headband simulation test for predicting outcome after percutaneous bone conductive implantation.

    PubMed

    Monini, S; Filippi, C; Atturo, F; Biagini, M; Lazzarino, A I; Barbara, M

    2015-10-01

    Trans-cutaneous bone conduction (BC) stimulators, when coupled to the HB (BC-HB), are generally used to predict the results that could be achieved after bone conductive implant (BCI) surgery, and their performance is generally considered inferior to that provided by the definitive percutaneous system. The aim of the present study was to compare the performances between BC-HB and BCI of the same typology, when the former's sound processor is fitted in accordance to the individual auditory situation. Twenty-two patients selected for surgical application of a BCI were evaluated and the same audiological protocol was used to select the candidate and assess the final outcome. The BC-HB was properly fitted based on individual hearing loss and personal auditory targets, and tested as primary step of the protocol to obtain the most reliable predictive value. The BAHA Divino and BP100 sound processors were applied in 12 patients with conductive/mixed hearing loss (CMHL) and in 10 subjects with single sided deafness (SSD). Audiometric evaluation included the pure tone average (PTA3) threshold between 250-1000 Hz; the PTA thresholds at 2000 and 4000 Hz; intelligibility scores as percentage of word recognition (WRS) in quiet and in noise; and subjective evaluation of perceived sound quality by a visual analogue scale (VAS). Statistical evaluation with a student's t test was used for assessment of efficacy of BC-HB and BCI compared with the unaided condition. Spearman's Rho coefficient was used to confirm the reliability of the BC-HB simulation test as a predictor of definitive outcome. The results showed that the mean PTA difference between BCI and BC-HB ranged from 2.54 to 8.27 decibels in the CMHL group and from 1.27 to 3.9 decibels in the SSD group. Compared with the BC-HB, BCI showed a better WRS both in CMHL (16% in quiet and 12% in noise) and in SSD (5% in quiet and a 1% in noise) groups. Spearman's Rho coefficient, calculated for PTA, WRS in quiet and in noise and VAS

  4. Evaluation of machine learning algorithms for treatment outcome prediction in patients with epilepsy based on structural connectome data.

    PubMed

    Munsell, Brent C; Wee, Chong-Yaw; Keller, Simon S; Weber, Bernd; Elger, Christian; da Silva, Laura Angelica Tomaz; Nesland, Travis; Styner, Martin; Shen, Dinggang; Bonilha, Leonardo

    2015-09-01

    The objective of this study is to evaluate machine learning algorithms aimed at predicting surgical treatment outcomes in groups of patients with temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE) using only the structural brain connectome. Specifically, the brain connectome is reconstructed using white matter fiber tracts from presurgical diffusion tensor imaging. To achieve our objective, a two-stage connectome-based prediction framework is developed that gradually selects a small number of abnormal network connections that contribute to the surgical treatment outcome, and in each stage a linear kernel operation is used to further improve the accuracy of the learned classifier. Using a 10-fold cross validation strategy, the first stage in the connectome-based framework is able to separate patients with TLE from normal controls with 80% accuracy, and second stage in the connectome-based framework is able to correctly predict the surgical treatment outcome of patients with TLE with 70% accuracy. Compared to existing state-of-the-art methods that use VBM data, the proposed two-stage connectome-based prediction framework is a suitable alternative with comparable prediction performance. Our results additionally show that machine learning algorithms that exclusively use structural connectome data can predict treatment outcomes in epilepsy with similar accuracy compared with "expert-based" clinical decision. In summary, using the unprecedented information provided in the brain connectome, machine learning algorithms may uncover pathological changes in brain network organization and improve outcome forecasting in the context of epilepsy.

  5. Watching novice action degrades expert motor performance: causation between action production and outcome prediction of observed actions by humans.

    PubMed

    Ikegami, Tsuyoshi; Ganesh, Gowrishankar

    2014-01-01

    Our social skills are critically determined by our ability to understand and appropriately respond to actions performed by others. However despite its obvious importance, the mechanisms enabling action understanding in humans have remained largely unclear. A popular but controversial belief is that parts of the motor system contribute to our ability to understand observed actions. Here, using a novel behavioral paradigm, we investigated this belief by examining a causal relation between action production, and a component of action understanding--outcome prediction, the ability of a person to predict the outcome of observed actions. We asked dart experts to watch novice dart throwers and predict the outcome of their throws. We modulated the feedbacks provided to them, caused a specific improvement in the expert's ability to predict watched actions while controlling the other experimental factors, and exhibited that a change (improvement) in their outcome prediction ability results in a progressive and proportional deterioration in the expert's own darts performance. This causal relationship supports involvement of the motor system in outcome prediction by humans of actions observed in others. PMID:25384755

  6. Preschool speech intelligibility and vocabulary skills predict long-term speech and language outcomes following cochlear implantation in early childhood.

    PubMed

    Castellanos, Irina; Kronenberger, William G; Beer, Jessica; Henning, Shirley C; Colson, Bethany G; Pisoni, David B

    2014-07-01

    Speech and language measures during grade school predict adolescent speech-language outcomes in children who receive cochlear implants (CIs), but no research has examined whether speech and language functioning at even younger ages is predictive of long-term outcomes in this population. The purpose of this study was to examine whether early preschool measures of speech and language performance predict speech-language functioning in long-term users of CIs. Early measures of speech intelligibility and receptive vocabulary (obtained during preschool ages of 3-6 years) in a sample of 35 prelingually deaf, early-implanted children predicted speech perception, language, and verbal working memory skills up to 18 years later. Age of onset of deafness and age at implantation added additional variance to preschool speech intelligibility in predicting some long-term outcome scores, but the relationship between preschool speech-language skills and later speech-language outcomes was not significantly attenuated by the addition of these hearing history variables. These findings suggest that speech and language development during the preschool years is predictive of long-term speech and language functioning in early-implanted, prelingually deaf children. As a result, measures of speech-language functioning at preschool ages can be used to identify and adjust interventions for very young CI users who may be at long-term risk for suboptimal speech and language outcomes.

  7. Watching novice action degrades expert motor performance: Causation between action production and outcome prediction of observed actions by humans

    PubMed Central

    Ikegami, Tsuyoshi; Ganesh, Gowrishankar

    2014-01-01

    Our social skills are critically determined by our ability to understand and appropriately respond to actions performed by others. However despite its obvious importance, the mechanisms enabling action understanding in humans have remained largely unclear. A popular but controversial belief is that parts of the motor system contribute to our ability to understand observed actions. Here, using a novel behavioral paradigm, we investigated this belief by examining a causal relation between action production, and a component of action understanding - outcome prediction, the ability of a person to predict the outcome of observed actions. We asked dart experts to watch novice dart throwers and predict the outcome of their throws. We modulated the feedbacks provided to them, caused a specific improvement in the expert's ability to predict watched actions while controlling the other experimental factors, and exhibited that a change (improvement) in their outcome prediction ability results in a progressive and proportional deterioration in the expert's own darts performance. This causal relationship supports involvement of the motor system in outcome prediction by humans of actions observed in others. PMID:25384755

  8. Evaluation of machine learning algorithms for treatment outcome prediction in patients with epilepsy based on structural connectome data

    PubMed Central

    Munsell, Brent C.; Wee, Chong-Yaw; Keller, Simon S.; Weber, Bernd; Elger, Christian; da Silva, Laura Angelica Tomaz; Nesland, Travis; Styner, Martin; Shen, Dinggang; Bonilha, Leonardo

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this study is to evaluate machine learning algorithms aimed at predicting surgical treatment outcomes in groups of patients with temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE) using only the structural brain connectome. Specifically, the brain connectome is reconstructed using white matter fiber tracts from presurgical diffusion tensor imaging. To achieve our objective, a two-stage connectome-based prediction framework is developed that gradually selects a small number of abnormal network connections that contribute to the surgical treatment outcome, and in each stage a linear kernel operation is used to further improve the accuracy of the learned classifier. Using a 10-fold cross validation strategy, the first stage in the connectome-based framework is able to separate patients with TLE from normal controls with 80% accuracy, and second stage in the connectome-based framework is able to correctly predict the surgical treatment outcome of patients with TLE with 70% accuracy. Compared to existing state-of-the-art methods that use VBM data, the proposed two-stage connectome-based prediction framework is a suitable alternative with comparable prediction performance. Our results additionally show that machine learning algorithms that exclusively use structural connectome data can predict treatment outcomes in epilepsy with similar accuracy compared with “expert-based” clinical decision. In summary, using the unprecedented information provided in the brain connectome, machine learning algorithms may uncover pathological changes in brain network organization and improve outcome forecasting in the context of epilepsy. PMID:26054876

  9. Behavioral, Brain Imaging and Genomic Measures to Predict Functional Outcomes Post - Bed Rest and Spaceflight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mulavara, A. P.; DeDios, Y. E.; Gadd, N. E.; Caldwell, E. E.; Batson, C. D.; Goel, R.; Seidler, R. D.; Oddsson, L.; Zanello, S.; Clarke, T.; Peters, B.; Cohen, H. S.; Reschke, M.; Wood, S.; Bloomberg, J. J.

    2016-01-01

    retrospective study, leveraging data already collected from relevant ongoing or completed bed rest and spaceflight studies. These data will be combined with predictor metrics that will be collected prospectively (as described for behavioral, brain imaging and genomic measures) from these returning subjects to build models for predicting post-mission (bed rest - non-astronauts or space flight - astronauts) adaptive capability as manifested in their outcome measures. To date we have completed a study on 15 normal subjects with all of the above measures. In this presentation we will discuss the optimized set of tests for predictive metrics to be used for evaluating post mission adaptive capability as manifested in their outcome measures. Comparisons of model performance will allow us to better design and implement sensorimotor adaptability training countermeasures against decrements in post-mission adaptive capability that are customized for each crewmember's sensory biases, adaptive capacity, brain structure and functional capacities, and genetic predispositions. The ability to customize adaptability training will allow more efficient use of crew time during training and will optimize training prescriptions for astronauts to ensure expected outcomes.

  10. Accelerating Adverse Outcome Pathway (AOP) development via computationally predicted AOP networks

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Adverse Outcome Pathway (AOP) framework is increasingly being adopted as a tool for organizing and summarizing the mechanistic information connecting molecular perturbations by environmental stressors with adverse outcomes relevant for ecological and human health outcomes. Ho...

  11. UV solid state laser ablation of intraocular lenses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Apostolopoulos, A.; Lagiou, D. P.; Evangelatos, Ch.; Spyratou, E.; Bacharis, C.; Makropoulou, M.; Serafetinides, A. A.

    2013-06-01

    Commercially available intraocular lenses (IOLs) are manufactured from silicone and acrylic, both rigid (e.g. PMMA) and foldable (hydrophobic or hydrophilic acrylic biomaterials), behaving different mechanical and optical properties. Recently, the use of apodizing technology to design new diffractive-refractive multifocals improved the refractive outcome of these intraocular lenses, providing good distant and near vision. There is also a major ongoing effort to refine laser refractive surgery to correct other defects besides conventional refractive errors. Using phakic IOLs to treat high myopia potentially provides better predictability and optical quality than corneal-based refractive surgery. The aim of this work was to investigate the effect of laser ablation on IOL surface shaping, by drilling circular arrays of holes, with a homemade motorized rotation stage, and scattered holes on the polymer surface. In material science, the most popular lasers used for polymer machining are the UV lasers, and, therefore, we tried in this work the 3rd and the 5th harmonic of a Q-switched Nd:YAG laser (λ=355 nm and λ=213 nm respectively). The morphology of the ablated IOL surface was examined with a scanning electron microscope (SEM, Fei - Innova Nanoscope) at various laser parameters. Quantitative measurements were performed with a contact profilometer (Dektak-150), in which a mechanical stylus scanned across the surface of gold-coated IOLs (after SEM imaging) to measure variations in surface height and, finally, the ablation rates were also mathematically simulated for depicting the possible laser ablation mechanism(s). The experimental results and the theoretical modelling of UV laser interaction with polymeric IOLs are discussed in relation with the physical (optical, mechanical and thermal) properties of the material, in addition to laser radiation parameters (laser energy fluence, number of pulses). The qualitative aspects of laser ablation at λ=213 nm reveal a

  12. Purpose in Life Predicts Treatment Outcome Among Adult Cocaine Abusers in Treatment

    PubMed Central

    Martin, Rosemarie A.; MacKinnon, Selene; Johnson, Jennifer; Rohsenow, Damaris J.

    2010-01-01

    A sense of purpose in life has been positively associated with mental health and well-being and has been negatively associated with alcohol use in correlational and longitudinal studies, but has not been studied as a predictor of cocaine treatment outcome. This study examined pre-treatment purpose in life as a predictor of response to a 30-day residential substance use treatment program among 154 participants with cocaine dependence. Purpose in life was unrelated to cocaine or alcohol use during the 6 months pretreatment. After controlling for age, baseline use, and depressive symptoms, purpose in life significantly (p < .01) predicted relapse to any use of cocaine and to alcohol, and the number of days cocaine or alcohol was used in the six months after treatment. Findings suggest that increasing purpose in life may be an important aspect of treatment among cocaine dependent patients. PMID:21129893

  13. Combining gene mutation with gene expression data improves outcome prediction in myelodysplastic syndromes

    PubMed Central

    Gerstung, Moritz; Pellagatti, Andrea; Malcovati, Luca; Giagounidis, Aristoteles; Porta, Matteo G Della; Jädersten, Martin; Dolatshad, Hamid; Verma, Amit; Cross, Nicholas C. P.; Vyas, Paresh; Killick, Sally; Hellström-Lindberg, Eva; Cazzola, Mario; Papaemmanuil, Elli; Campbell, Peter J.; Boultwood, Jacqueline

    2015-01-01

    Cancer is a genetic disease, but two patients rarely have identical genotypes. Similarly, patients differ in their clinicopathological parameters, but how genotypic and phenotypic heterogeneity are interconnected is not well understood. Here we build statistical models to disentangle the effect of 12 recurrently mutated genes and 4 cytogenetic alterations on gene expression, diagnostic clinical variables and outcome in 124 patients with myelodysplastic syndromes. Overall, one or more genetic lesions correlate with expression levels of ~20% of all genes, explaining 20–65% of observed expression variability. Differential expression patterns vary between mutations and reflect the underlying biology, such as aberrant polycomb repression for ASXL1 and EZH2 mutations or perturbed gene dosage for copy-number changes. In predicting survival, genomic, transcriptomic and diagnostic clinical variables all have utility, with the largest contribution from the transcriptome. Similar observations are made on the TCGA acute myeloid leukaemia cohort, confirming the general trends reported here. PMID:25574665

  14. Magnetic resonance imaging and prediction of outcome in patients with major depressive disorder

    PubMed Central

    MacQueen, Glenda M.

    2009-01-01

    Whether magnetic resonance imaging studies can provide useful information to clinicians who treat people with major depressive disorder remains to be established. There are, however, several recent findings that suggest that likelihood of response may be predicted by imaging findings. For example, morphometric studies have examined whether hippocampus volume is associated with clinically meaningful outcomes such as response to treatment. In general, patients who remit have larger pretreatment hippocampus volumes bilaterally compared with those who do not remit. There are similar preliminary findings for the anterior cingulate cortex. There are also a number of functional imaging studies that have identified different activity patterns in those who are likely to respond to treatment compared with those who are not. Using positron emission tomography, investigators have reported different patterns of response to treatment in those treated with medication compared with those treated with psychotherapy. Some of the potential barriers to the routine use of imaging in psychiatric practice are reviewed briefly. PMID:19721844

  15. Abdominal compartment syndrome in trauma patients: New insights for predicting outcomes

    PubMed Central

    Shaheen, Aisha W.; Crandall, Marie L.; Nicolson, Norman G.; Smith-Singares, Eduardo; Merlotti, Gary J.; Jalundhwala, Yash; Issa, Nabil M.

    2016-01-01

    Context: Abdominal compartment syndrome (ACS) is associated with high morbidity and mortality among trauma patients. Several clinical and laboratory findings have been suggested as markers for ACS, and these may point to different types of ACS and complications. Aims: This study aims to identify the strength of association of clinical and laboratory variables with specific adverse outcomes in trauma patients with ACS. Settings and Design: A 5-year retrospective chart review was conducted at three Level I Trauma Centers in the City of Chicago, IL, USA. Subjects and Methods: A complete set of demographic, pre-, intra- and post-operative variables were collected from 28 patient charts. Statistical Analysis: Pearson's correlation coefficient was used to determine the strength of association between 29 studied variables and eight end outcomes. Results: Thirty-day mortality was associated strongly with the finding of an initial intra-abdominal pressure >20 mmHg and moderately with blunt injury mechanism. A lactic acid >5 mmol/L on admission was moderately associated with increased blood transfusion requirements and with acute renal failure during the hospitalization. Developing ACS within 48 h of admission was moderately associated with increased length of stay in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU), more ventilator days, and longer hospital stay. Initial operative intervention lasting more than 2 h was moderately associated with risk of developing multi-organ failure. Hemoglobin level <10 g/dL on admission, ongoing mechanical ventilation, and ICU stay >7 days were moderately associated with a disposition to long-term support facility. Conclusions: Clinical and lab variables can predict specific adverse outcomes in trauma patients with ACS. These findings may be used to guide patient management, improve resource utilization, and build capacity within trauma centers. PMID:27162436

  16. Severity scoring in the critically ill: part 2: maximizing value from outcome prediction scoring systems.

    PubMed

    Breslow, Michael J; Badawi, Omar

    2012-02-01

    Part 2 of this review of ICU scoring systems examines how scoring system data should be used to assess ICU performance. There often are two different consumers of these data: lCU clinicians and quality leaders who seek to identify opportunities to improve quality of care and operational efficiency, and regulators, payors, and consumers who want to compare performance across facilities. The former need to know how to garner maximal insight into their care practices; this includes understanding how length of stay (LOS) relates to quality, analyzing the behavior of different subpopulations, and following trends over time. Segregating patients into low-, medium-, and high-risk populations is especially helpful, because care issues and outcomes may differ across this severity continuum. Also, LOS behaves paradoxically in high-risk patients (survivors often have longer LOS than nonsurvivors); failure to examine this subgroup separately can penalize ICUs with superior outcomes. Consumers of benchmarking data often focus on a single score, the standardized mortality ratio (SMR). However, simple SMRs are disproportionately affected by outcomes in high-risk patients, and differences in population composition, even when performance is otherwise identical, can result in different SMRs. Future benchmarking must incorporate strategies to adjust for differences in population composition and report performance separately for low-, medium- and high-acuity patients. Moreover, because many ICUs lack the resources to care for high-acuity patients (predicted mortality >50%), decisions about where patients should receive care must consider both ICU performance scores and their capacity to care for different types of patients. PMID:22315120

  17. Utility of Socioeconomic Status in Predicting 30-Day Outcomes After Heart Failure Hospitalization

    PubMed Central

    Eapen, Zubin J.; McCoy, Lisa A.; Fonarow, Gregg C.; Yancy, Clyde W.; Miranda, Marie Lynn; Peterson, Eric D.; Califf, Robert M.; Hernandez, Adrian F.

    2015-01-01

    Background An individual's socioeconomic status (SES) is associated with health outcomes and mortality, yet it is unknown whether accounting for SES can improve risk-adjustment models for 30-day outcomes among Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) beneficiaries hospitalized with heart failure (HF). Methods and Results We linked clinical data on hospitalized HF patients in the Get With The Guidelines®-HF™ database (01/2005–12/2011) with CMS claims and county-level SES data from the 2012 Area Health Resources Files. We compared the discriminatory capabilities of multivariable models that adjusted for SES, patient, and/or hospital characteristics to determine whether county-level SES data improved prediction or changed hospital rankings for 30-day all-cause mortality and rehospitalization. After adjusting for patient and hospital characteristics, median household income (per $5,000 increase) was inversely associated with odds of 30-day mortality (OR 0.97, 95% CI 0.95–1.00, p=0.032), and the percentage of persons with at least a high school diploma (per 5 unit increase) was associated with lower odds of 30-day rehospitalization (OR 0.95, 95% CI 0.91–0.99).After adjustment for county-level SES data, relative to whites, Hispanic ethnicity (OR 0.70, 95% CI 0.58, 0.83) and black race (OR 0.57, 95% CI: 0.50–0.65) remained significantly associated with lower 30-day mortality, but had similar 30-day rehospitalization. County-level SES did not improve risk adjustment or change hospital rankings for 30-day mortality or rehospitalization. Conclusions County-level SES data are modestly associated with 30-day outcomes for CMS beneficiaries hospitalized with HF, but do not improve risk adjustment models based on patient characteristics alone. PMID:25747700

  18. Serum Gamma-Glutamyltransferase Levels Predict Clinical Outcomes in Hemodialysis Patients

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Su-Hyun; Kim, Young Ok; Jin, Dong Chan; Song, Ho Chul; Choi, Euy Jin; Kim, Yong-Lim; Kim, Yon-Su; Kang, Shin-Wook; Kim, Nam-Ho; Yang, Chul Woo; Kim, Yong Kyun

    2015-01-01

    Background Gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) is a biomarker of liver injury. GGT has also been reported to be a marker of oxidative stress and a predictor of mortality in the general population. Hemodialysis (HD) patients suffer from oxidative stress. The aim of our study was to investigate the relationship between serum GGT levels and clinical outcomes in HD patients. Methods A total of 1,634 HD patients were enrolled from the Clinical Research Center registry for end-stage renal disease, a prospective cohort in Korea. Patients were categorized into three groups by tertiles of serum GGT levels. The primary outcome was all-cause, cardiovascular, or infection-related mortality and hospitalization. Results During the median follow-up period of 30 months, the highest tertile of serum GGT levels had a significantly higher risk for all-cause mortality (hazard ratio (HR) 2.39, 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.55–3.69, P<0.001), cardiovascular mortality (HR 2.14, 95% CI, 1.07–4.26, P = 0.031) and infection-related mortality (HR 3.07, 95% CI, 1.30–7.25, P = 0.011) using tertile 1 as the reference group after adjusting for clinical variables including liver diseases. The highest tertile also had a significantly higher risk for first hospitalization (HR 1.22, 95% CI, 1.00–1.48, P = 0.048) and cardiovascular hospitalization (HR 1.42, 95% CI, 1.06–1.92, P = 0.028). Conclusions Our data demonstrate that high serum GGT levels were an independent risk factor for all-cause, cardiovascular, and infection-related mortality, as well as cardiovascular hospitalization in HD patients. These findings suggest that serum GGT levels might be a useful biomarker to predict clinical outcomes in HD patients. PMID:26376075

  19. Prediction of motor outcome by shoulder subluxation at early stage of stroke

    PubMed Central

    Jang, Sung Ho; Yi, Ji Hyun; Chang, Chul Hoon; Jung, Young Jin; Kim, Seong Ho; Lee, Jun; Seo, Jeong Pyo

    2016-01-01

    Abstract We attempted to determine whether shoulder subluxation at the early stage of stroke can predict motor outcome in relation to the corticospinal tract (CST) state on diffusion tensor tractography. Fifty-nine stroke patients with severe hemiparesis were recruited. The patients were classified according to the distance of shoulder subluxation (group A: ≥2 cm, group B: <2 cm) and the affected CST on diffusion tensor tractography at the first evaluation (CST type A—the CST was discontinued at the stroke lesion; CST type B—the integrity of the CST was preserved). Motor function of the patients was evaluated twice (first: beginning of rehabilitation—24.1 ± 16.6 days; second: discharge after first rehabilitation—58.5 ± 24.1 days) using the Medical Research Council score, Motricity Index, and Modified Brunnstrom Classification. Regarding the improvement of the Medical Research Council for the finger extensor and upper Motricity Index, the order in terms of better recovery was as follows: group B–type B, group A–type B, group B–type A, and group A–type A (P < 0.05). The distance of shoulder subluxation showed significant correlation with improvement of the finger extensor (moderate negative correlation, r = −0.37) and improvement of the Modified Brunnstrom Classification (weak negative correlation, r = −0.29) (P < 0.05). The presence of shoulder subluxation at the early stage of stroke can be a predictor of motor outcome of the affected upper extremity and the degree of shoulder subluxation can be a predictor of the motor function of the affected hand. Therefore, our results suggest that shoulder subluxation in relation to the affected CST state at the early stage of stroke can be a prognostic factor for motor outcome. PMID:27512873

  20. EU framework 6 project: predictive toxicology (PredTox)--overview and outcome.

    PubMed

    Suter, Laura; Schroeder, Susanne; Meyer, Kirstin; Gautier, Jean-Charles; Amberg, Alexander; Wendt, Maria; Gmuender, Hans; Mally, Angela; Boitier, Eric; Ellinger-Ziegelbauer, Heidrun; Matheis, Katja; Pfannkuch, Friedlieb

    2011-04-15

    In this publication, we report the outcome of the integrated EU Framework 6 PROJECT: Predictive Toxicology (PredTox), including methodological aspects and overall conclusions. Specific details including data analysis and interpretation are reported in separate articles in this issue. The project, partly funded by the EU, was carried out by a consortium of 15 pharmaceutical companies, 2 SMEs, and 3 universities. The effects of 16 test compounds were characterized using conventional toxicological parameters and "omics" technologies. The three major observed toxicities, liver hypertrophy, bile duct necrosis and/or cholestasis, and kidney proximal tubular damage were analyzed in detail. The combined approach of "omics" and conventional toxicology proved a useful tool for mechanistic investigations and the identification of putative biomarkers. In our hands and in combination with histopathological assessment, target organ transcriptomics was the most prolific approach for the generation of mechanistic hypotheses. Proteomics approaches were relatively time-consuming and required careful standardization. NMR-based metabolomics detected metabolite changes accompanying histopathological findings, providing limited additional mechanistic information. Conversely, targeted metabolite profiling with LC/GC-MS was very useful for the investigation of bile duct necrosis/cholestasis. In general, both proteomics and metabolomics were supportive of other findings. Thus, the outcome of this program indicates that "omics" technologies can help toxicologists to make better informed decisions during exploratory toxicological studies. The data support that hypothesis on mode of action and discovery of putative biomarkers are tangible outcomes of integrated "omics" analysis. Qualification of biomarkers remains challenging, in particular in terms of identification, mechanistic anchoring, appropriate specificity, and sensitivity.

  1. Integrating Publicly Available Data to Generate Computationally Predicted Adverse Outcome Pathways for Fatty Liver.

    PubMed

    Bell, Shannon M; Angrish, Michelle M; Wood, Charles E; Edwards, Stephen W

    2016-04-01

    Newin vitrotesting strategies make it possible to design testing batteries for large numbers of environmental chemicals. Full utilization of the results requires knowledge of the underlying biological networks and the adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) that describe the route from early molecular perturbations to an adverse outcome. Curation of a formal AOP is a time-intensive process and a rate-limiting step to designing these test batteries. Here, we describe a method for integrating publicly available data in order to generate computationally predicted AOP (cpAOP) scaffolds, which can be leveraged by domain experts to shorten the time for formal AOP development. A network-based workflow was used to facilitate the integration of multiple data types to generate cpAOPs. Edges between graph entities were identified through direct experimental or literature information, or computationally inferred using frequent itemset mining. Data from the TG-GATEs and ToxCast programs were used to channel large-scale toxicogenomics information into a cpAOP network (cpAOPnet) of over 20 000 relationships describing connections between chemical treatments, phenotypes, and perturbed pathways as measured by differential gene expression and high-throughput screening targets. The resulting fatty liver cpAOPnet is available as a resource to the community. Subnetworks of cpAOPs for a reference chemical (carbon tetrachloride, CCl4) and outcome (fatty liver) were compared with published mechanistic descriptions. In both cases, the computational approaches approximated the manually curated AOPs. The cpAOPnet can be used for accelerating expert-curated AOP development and to identify pathway targets that lack genomic markers or high-throughput screening tests. It can also facilitate identification of key events for designing test batteries and for classification and grouping of chemicals for follow up testing.

  2. EU Framework 6 Project: Predictive Toxicology (PredTox)-overview and outcome

    SciTech Connect

    Suter, Laura; Schroeder, Susanne; Meyer, Kirstin; Gautier, Jean-Charles; Amberg, Alexander; Wendt, Maria; Gmuender, Hans; Mally, Angela; Boitier, Eric; Ellinger-Ziegelbauer, Heidrun; Matheis, Katja; Pfannkuch, Friedlieb

    2011-04-15

    In this publication, we report the outcome of the integrated EU Framework 6 Project: Predictive Toxicology (PredTox), including methodological aspects and overall conclusions. Specific details including data analysis and interpretation are reported in separate articles in this issue. The project, partly funded by the EU, was carried out by a consortium of 15 pharmaceutical companies, 2 SMEs, and 3 universities. The effects of 16 test compounds were characterized using conventional toxicological parameters and 'omics' technologies. The three major observed toxicities, liver hypertrophy, bile duct necrosis and/or cholestasis, and kidney proximal tubular damage were analyzed in detail. The combined approach of 'omics' and conventional toxicology proved a useful tool for mechanistic investigations and the identification of putative biomarkers. In our hands and in combination with histopathological assessment, target organ transcriptomics was the most prolific approach for the generation of mechanistic hypotheses. Proteomics approaches were relatively time-consuming and required careful standardization. NMR-based metabolomics detected metabolite changes accompanying histopathological findings, providing limited additional mechanistic information. Conversely, targeted metabolite profiling with LC/GC-MS was very useful for the investigation of bile duct necrosis/cholestasis. In general, both proteomics and metabolomics were supportive of other findings. Thus, the outcome of this program indicates that 'omics' technologies can help toxicologists to make better informed decisions during exploratory toxicological studies. The data support that hypothesis on mode of action and discovery of putative biomarkers are tangible outcomes of integrated 'omics' analysis. Qualification of biomarkers remains challenging, in particular in terms of identification, mechanistic anchoring, appropriate specificity, and sensitivity.

  3. Severity scoring in the critically ill: part 2: maximizing value from outcome prediction scoring systems.

    PubMed

    Breslow, Michael J; Badawi, Omar

    2012-02-01

    Part 2 of this review of ICU scoring systems examines how scoring system data should be used to assess ICU performance. There often are two different consumers of these data: lCU clinicians and quality leaders who seek to identify opportunities to improve quality of care and operational efficiency, and regulators, payors, and consumers who want to compare performance across facilities. The former need to know how to garner maximal insight into their care practices; this includes understanding how length of stay (LOS) relates to quality, analyzing the behavior of different subpopulations, and following trends over time. Segregating patients into low-, medium-, and high-risk populations is especially helpful, because care issues and outcomes may differ across this severity continuum. Also, LOS behaves paradoxically in high-risk patients (survivors often have longer LOS than nonsurvivors); failure to examine this subgroup separately can penalize ICUs with superior outcomes. Consumers of benchmarking data often focus on a single score, the standardized mortality ratio (SMR). However, simple SMRs are disproportionately affected by outcomes in high-risk patients, and differences in population composition, even when performance is otherwise identical, can result in different SMRs. Future benchmarking must incorporate strategies to adjust for differences in population composition and report performance separately for low-, medium- and high-acuity patients. Moreover, because many ICUs lack the resources to care for high-acuity patients (predicted mortality >50%), decisions about where patients should receive care must consider both ICU performance scores and their capacity to care for different types of patients.

  4. Epigenetic landscape correlates with genetic subtype but does not predict outcome in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia.

    PubMed

    Gabriel, Alem S; Lafta, Fadhel M; Schwalbe, Edward C; Nakjang, Sirintra; Cockell, Simon J; Iliasova, Alice; Enshaei, Amir; Schwab, Claire; Rand, Vikki; Clifford, Steven C; Kinsey, Sally E; Mitchell, Chris D; Vora, Ajay; Harrison, Christine J; Moorman, Anthony V; Strathdee, Gordon

    2015-01-01

    Although children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) generally have a good outcome, some patients do relapse and survival following relapse is poor. Altered DNA methylation is highly prevalent in ALL and raises the possibility that DNA methylation-based biomarkers could predict patient outcome. In this study, genome-wide methylation analysis, using the Illumina Infinium HumanMethylation450 BeadChip platform, was carried out on 52 diagnostic patient samples from 4 genetic subtypes [ETV6-RUNX1, high hyperdiploidy (HeH), TCF3-PBX1 and dic(9;20)(p11-13;q11)] in a 1:1 case-control design with patients who went on to relapse (as cases) and patients achieving long-term remission (as controls). Pyrosequencing assays for selected loci were used to confirm the array-generated data. Non-negative matrix factorization consensus clustering readily clustered samples according to genetic subgroups and gene enrichment pathway analysis suggested that this is in part driven by epigenetic disruption of subtype specific signaling pathways. Multiple bioinformatics approaches (including bump hunting and individual locus analysis) were used to identify CpG sites or regions associated with outcome. However, no associations with relapse were identified. Our data revealed that ETV6-RUNX1 and dic(9;20) subtypes were mostly associated with hypermethylation; conversely, TCF3-PBX1 and HeH were associated with hypomethylation. We observed significant enrichment of the neuroactive ligand-receptor interaction pathway in TCF3-PBX1 as well as an enrichment of genes involved in immunity and infection pathways in ETV6-RUNX1 subtype. Taken together, our results suggest that altered DNA methylation may have differential impacts in distinct ALL genetic subtypes. PMID:26237075

  5. Can blood or follicular fluid levels of presepsin predict reproductive outcomes in ART; a preliminary study.

    PubMed

    Ovayolu, Ali; Özdamar, Özkan; Gün, İsmet; Arslanbuga, Cansev Yılmaz; Sofuoğlu, Kenan; Tunalı, Gülden; Topuz, Samet

    2015-01-01

    Many stages of COH protocols are considered to potentiate a state of systemic inflammation. The limit beyond which inflammation has negative impacts on the formation of conception and the reproductive outcomes are compromised still remains unclear. Presepsin is a novel biomarker for diagnosing systemic inflammation and sepsis. We aimed to investigate whether plasma and follicular fluid presepsin values on oocyte pick-up (OPU) day, embryo transfer (ET) day and pregnancy test (PT) days could predict reproductive outcomes during IVF treatment in women with UEI. Patients were assigned to two groups according to pregnancy test results; pregnant (Group 1) and non-pregnant (Group 2). From all patients included in the study, 2 cc of venous blood was sampled on the three days and follicular fluid (FF) was collected during oocyte retrieval. Plasma presepsin, CRP and WBC values and FF presepsin values were measured and compared between the 2 groups. There was no significant difference between FF and plasma presepsin levels on the OPU day (298±797.4 ve 352.9±657.1; P=0.701, respectively). Plasma WBC, CRP and presepsin levels on the OPU, ET and PT days and FF presepsin levels on OPU day were not different between the 2 groups. Plasma presepsin course on the separate 3 days were different between the groups.

  6. Early warning and clinical outcome prediction of acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure

    PubMed Central

    Chen, En-Qiang; Zeng, Fan; Zhou, Ling-Yun; Tang, Hong

    2015-01-01

    Hepatitis B virus (HBV) associated acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is an increasingly recognized fatal liver disease encompassing a severe acute exacerbation of liver function in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). Despite the introduction of an artificial liver support system and antiviral therapy, the short-term prognosis of HBV-ACLF is still extremely poor unless emergency liver transplantation is performed. In such a situation, stopping or slowing the progression of CHB to ACLF at an early stage is the most effective way of reducing the morbidity and mortality of HBV-ACLF. It is well-known that the occurrence and progression of HBV-ACLF is associated with many factors, and the outcomes of HBV-ACLF patients can be significantly improved if timely and appropriate interventions are provided. In this review, we highlight recent developments in early warning and clinical outcome prediction in patients with HBV-ACLF and provide an outlook for future research in this field. PMID:26576085

  7. Prevalence, predictive factors, and survival outcome of new-onset diabetes after liver transplantation

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Fu-Chao; Lin, Jr-Rung; Chen, Hsiu-Pin; Tsai, Yung-Fong; Yu, Huang-Ping

    2016-01-01

    Abstract The aim of the present nationwide population-based cohort study was to explore the prevalence, risk factors, and survival outcome of new-onset diabetes (NOD) in recipients after liver transplantation. The National Health Insurance Research Database of Taiwan was searched for ICD-9-codes, 2248 patients who had received liver transplant without pretransplant diabetes from July 1, 1998 to December 31, 2012 were included in the study. The preoperative risks factors were considered and analyzed using logistic regression analysis, following adjustments for age and sex. All patients were followed up until the end of the study or death. The final dataset included 189 patients with NOD and 2059 without diabetes after liver transplantation. The prevalence of NOD was 8.4% and in 64% NOD appeared in the first year after liver transplantation. Preoperative clinical events, alcoholic liver cirrhosis, and hepatic encephalopathy were the most important risk factors for NOD after liver transplantation. The mortality rate was lower in NOD recipients than in non-NOD recipients within 5 years. In this study, we provide evidence that NOD recipients had better 5-year survival outcomes in this clinical population. The most important identifiable predictive factors for NOD after liver transplantation were alcoholic hepatitis, ascites, hepatic coma, and esophageal varices. PMID:27336869

  8. Laboratory Diagnosis of Invasive Aspergillosis: From Diagnosis to Prediction of Outcome

    PubMed Central

    Barton, Richard C.

    2013-01-01

    Invasive aspergillosis (IA), an infection caused by fungi in the genus Aspergillus, is seen in patients with immunological deficits, particularly acute leukaemia and stem cell transplantation, and has been associated with high rates of mortality in previous years. Diagnosing IA has long been problematic owing to the inability to culture the main causal agent A. fumigatus from blood. Microscopic examination and culture of respiratory tract specimens have lacked sensitivity, and biopsy tissue for histopathological examination is rarely obtainable. Thus, for many years there has been a great interest in nonculture-based techniques such as the detection of galactomannan, β-D-glucan, and DNA by PCR-based methods. Recent meta-analyses suggest that these approaches have broadly similar performance parameters in terms of sensitivity and specificity to diagnose IA. Improvements have been made in our understanding of the limitations of antigen assays and the standardisation of PCR-based DNA detection. Thus, in more recent years, the debate has focussed on how these assays can be incorporated into diagnostic strategies to maximise improvements in outcome whilst limiting unnecessary use of antifungal therapy. Furthermore, there is a current interest in applying these tests to monitor the effectiveness of therapy after diagnosis and predict clinical outcomes. The search for improved markers for the early and sensitive diagnosis of IA continues to be a challenge. PMID:24278780

  9. Liver protein profiling in chronic hepatitis C: identification of potential predictive markers for interferon therapy outcome.

    PubMed

    Perdomo, Ariel Basulto; Ciccosanti, Fabiola; Iacono, Oreste Lo; Angeletti, Claudio; Corazzari, Marco; Daniele, Nicola; Testa, Angela; Pisa, Roberto; Ippolito, Giuseppe; Antonucci, Giorgio; Fimia, Gian Maria; Piacentini, Mauro

    2012-02-01

    The current anti-hepatitis C virus (HCV) therapy, based on pegylated-interferon alpha and ribavirin, has limited success rate and is accompanied by several side effects. The aim of this study was to identify protein profiles in pretreatment liver biopsies of HCV patients correlating with the outcome of antiviral therapy. Cytosolic or membrane/organelle-enriched protein extracts from liver biopsies of eight HCV patients were analyzed by two-dimensional fluorescence difference gel electrophoresis and mass spectrometry. Overall, this analysis identified 21 proteins whose expression levels correlate with therapy response. These factors are involved in interferon-mediated antiviral activity, stress response, and energy metabolism. Moreover, we found that post-translational modifications of dihydroxyacetone kinase were also associated with therapy outcome. Differential expression of the five best performing markers (STAT1, Mx1, DD4, DAK, and PD-ECGF) was confirmed by immunoblotting assays in an independent group of HCV patients. Finally, we showed that a prediction model based on the expression levels of these markers classifies responder and nonresponder patients with an accuracy of 85.7%. These results provide evidence that the analysis of pretreatment liver protein profiles is valuable for discriminating between responder and nonresponder HCV patients, and may contribute to reduce the number of nonresponder patients exposed to therapy-associated risks.

  10. Enhancing Diagnosis, Prognosis, and Therapeutic Outcome Prediction of Gliomas Using Genomics

    PubMed Central

    Sibenaller, Zita; Agarwal, Supreet; Al-Keilani, Maha S.; Alqudah, Mohammad A.Y.; Ryken, Timothy C.

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Malignant gliomas are the most frequent type of primary brain tumors. Patients' outcome has not improved despite new therapeutics, thus underscoring the need for a better understanding of their genetics and a fresh approach to treatment. The lack of reproducibility in the classification of many gliomas presents an opportunity where genomics may be paramount for accurate diagnosis and therefore best for therapeutic decisions. The aim of this work is to identify large and focal copy number abnormalities (CNA) and loss of heterozygosity (LOH) events in a malignant glioma population. We hypothesized that these explorations will allow discovery of genetic markers that may improve diagnosis and predict outcome. DNA from glioma specimens were subjected to CNA and LOH analyses. Our studies revealed more than 4000 CNA and several LOH loci. Losses of chromosomes 1p and/or 19q, 10, 13, 14, and 22 and gains of 7, 19, and 20 were found. Several of these alterations correlated significantly with histology and grade. Further, LOH was detected at numerous chromosomes. Interestingly, several of these loci harbor genes with potential or reported tumor suppressor properties. These novel genetic signatures may lead to critical insights into diagnosis, classification, prognosis, and design of individualized therapies. PMID:22401657

  11. T2 relaxation time post febrile status epilepticus predicts cognitive outcome.

    PubMed

    Barry, Jeremy M; Choy, ManKin; Dube, Celine; Robbins, Ashlee; Obenaus, Andre; Lenck-Santini, Pierre Pascal; Scott, Rod C; Baram, Tallie Z; Holmes, Gregory L

    2015-07-01

    Evidence from animal models and patient data indicates that febrile status epilepticus (FSE) in early development can result in permanently diminished cognitive abilities. To understand the variability in cognitive outcome following FSE, we used MRI to measure dynamic brain metabolic responses to the induction of FSE in juvenile rats. We then compared these measurements to the ability to learn an active avoidance spatial task weeks later. T2 relaxation times were significantly lower in FSE rats that were task learners in comparison to FSE non-learners. While T2 time in whole brain held the greatest predictive power, T2 in hippocampus and basolateral amygdala were also excellent predictors. These signal differences in response to FSE indicate that rats that fail to meet metabolic and oxygen demand are more likely to develop spatial cognition deficits. Place cells from FSE non-learners had significantly larger firing fields and higher in-field firing rate than FSE learners and control animals and imply increased excitability in the pyramidal cells of FSE non-learners. These findings suggest a mechanistic cause for the spatial memory deficits in active avoidance and are relevant to other acute neurological insults in early development where cognitive outcome is a concern. PMID:25939697

  12. Comorbidities, Alcohol Use Disorder, and Age Predict Outcomes after Autologous Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation for Lymphoma.

    PubMed

    Graf, Solomon A; Vaughn, Jennifer E; Chauncey, Thomas R; Storer, Barry E; Gopal, Ajay K; Holmberg, Leona A; McCune, Jeannine S; Bensinger, William I; Maloney, David G; Press, Oliver W; Storb, Rainer; Sorror, Mohamed L

    2016-09-01

    Autologous hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) is a treatment option for many patients diagnosed with lymphoma. The effects of patient-specific factors on outcomes after autologous HCT are not well characterized. Here, we studied a sequential cohort of 754 patients with lymphoma treated with autologous HCT between 2000 and 2010. In multivariate analysis, patient-specific factors that were statistically significantly associated with nonrelapse mortality (NRM) included HCT-specific comorbidity index (HCT-CI) scores  ≥ 3 (HR, 1.94; P = .05), a history of alcohol use disorder (AUD) (HR, 2.17; P = .004), and older age stratified by decade (HR, 1.29; P = .02). HCT-CI ≥ 3, a history of AUD, and age > 50 were combined into a composite risk model: NRM and overall mortality rates at 5 years increased from 6% to 30% and 32% to 58%, respectively, in patients with 0 versus all 3 risk factors. The HCT-CI is a valid tool in predicting mortality risks after autologous HCT for lymphoma. AUD and older age exert independent prognostic impact on outcomes. Whether AUD indicates additional organ dysfunction or sociobehavioral abnormality warrants further investigation. The composite model may improve risk stratification before autologous HCT. PMID:27311969

  13. Glycemic outcome not predicted by baseline psychological measures in a diabetes management program.

    PubMed

    Graco, Marnie; Hutchinson, Anastasia; Barker, Anna; Lawlor, Vicki; Wong, Rita; Fourlanos, Spiros

    2012-06-01

    The Northern Health Diabetes Hospital Admission Risk Program is a chronic disease management program that aims to improve the glycemic management of patients with diabetes. The aim of this project was to determine if there was any relationship between psychological characteristics and glycemic outcome in a diabetes management program. A prospective study of patients attending the diabetes management program investigated validated measures of cognition, stage of change, locus of control, self-efficacy, depression and anxiety, and quality of life. The study investigated 86 type 2 diabetes patients (mean age 59 years, 49% female). Glycemic control (HbA1c) was measured at baseline and after 12 months in the program. Glycemic control was poor on admission to the service with a mean HbA1c of 8.9%. The measures of cognition, self-efficacy, locus of control, mental health, and quality of life were not associated with improvements in HbA1c. Those participants with shorter duration of disease and more contacts with the service were significantly more likely to experience improvements in HbA1c. Psychometric data were not predictive of glycemic outcome. Rather, in this chronic disease management program, glycemia improved more in patients who were seen earlier in their disease course and managed more intensively, regardless of their psychometric status.

  14. Latent profiles of nonresidential father engagement six years after divorce predict long-term offspring outcomes.

    PubMed

    Modecki, Kathryn Lynn; Hagan, Melissa J; Sandler, Irwin; Wolchik, Sharlene A

    2015-01-01

    This study examined profiles of nonresidential father engagement (i.e., support to the adolescent, contact frequency, remarriage, relocation, and interparental conflict) with their adolescent children (N = 156) 6 to 8 years following divorce and the prospective relation between these profiles and the psychosocial functioning of their offspring, 9 years later. Parental divorce occurred during late childhood to early adolescence; indicators of nonresidential father engagement were assessed during adolescence, and mental health problems and academic achievement of offspring were assessed 9 years later in young adulthood. Three profiles of father engagement were identified in our sample of mainly White, non-Hispanic divorced fathers: Moderate Involvement/Low Conflict, Low Involvement/Moderate Conflict, and High Involvement/High Conflict. Profiles differentially predicted offspring outcomes 9 years later when they were young adults, controlling for quality of the mother-adolescent relationship, mother's remarriage, mother's income, and gender, age, and offspring mental health problems in adolescence. Offspring of fathers characterized as Moderate Involvement/Low Conflict had the highest academic achievement and the lowest number of externalizing problems 9 years later compared to offspring whose fathers had profiles indicating either the highest or lowest levels of involvement but higher levels of conflict. Results indicate that greater paternal psychosocial support and more frequent father-adolescent contact do not outweigh the negative impact of interparental conflict on youth outcomes in the long term. Implications of findings for policy and intervention are discussed.

  15. Aristotle score predicts outcome in patients requiring extracorporeal circulatory support following repair of congenital heart disease.

    PubMed

    Derby, Christopher D; Kolcz, Jacek; Kerins, Paul J; Duncan, Daniel R; Quezada, Emilio; Pizarro, Christian

    2007-01-01

    Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) has become the standard technique of mechanical support for the failing circulation following repair of congenital heart lesions. The objective of this study was to identify predictors of survival in patients requiring postcardiotomy ECMO. The Aristotle score, a method developed to evaluate quality of care based on complexity, was investigated as a potential predictor of outcome. Between 2003 and 2005, 37 patients required ECMO following corrective surgery for congenital heart disease. Records were reviewed retrospectively with emphasis on factors affecting survival to discharge. The comprehensive Aristotle complexity score was calculated for each patient. Overall, 28 patients (76%) survived to decannulation and 17 patients (46%) survived to discharge. There were 24 (65%) neonates and 10 patients (27%) with single ventricle physiology, with a hospital survival of 42% (10 of 24) and 50% (5 of 10), respectively. Univariate factors associated with survival included Aristotle score, duration of support, reexploration, multiple organ failure, and number of complications. Age, weight, and single-ventricle physiology were not significant. In a logistic regression model, an Aristotle score < 14 was identified as a predictor of survival (OR 0.12, CI 0.02-0.87). The Aristotle score is predictive of outcome in patients requiring postcardiotomy ECMO and may serve as a uniform criterion when comparing and evaluating quality of care and performance in this complex patient population.

  16. Expression levels of apoptosis-related proteins predict clinical outcome in anaplastic large cell lymphoma.

    PubMed

    ten Berge, Rosita L; Meijer, Chris J L M; Dukers, Danny F; Kummer, J Alain; Bladergroen, Bellinda A; Vos, Wim; Hack, C Erik; Ossenkoppele, Gert J; Oudejans, Joost J

    2002-06-15

    In vitro studies suggest that resistance to chemotherapy-induced apoptosis might explain poor response to therapy in fatal cases. Actual execution of apoptosis depends on proper functioning of effector caspases, particularly caspase 3, and on the expression levels of apoptosis-regulating proteins, including Bcl-2 and the recently identified granzyme B- specific protease inhibitor 9 (PI9). Thus, high levels of caspase 3 activation should reflect proper functioning of the apoptosis pathways, resulting in chemotherapy-sensitive neoplastic cells and a favorable prognosis. We tested this hypothesis by quantifying numbers of tumor cells positive for active caspase 3, Bcl-2, and PI9, respectively, in pretreatment biopsies of systemic anaplastic large cell lymphoma (ALCL) patients and by comparing these numbers with clinical outcome. Activation of caspase 3 in more than 5% of the tumor cells was strongly correlated with a highly favorable outcome. High numbers of Bcl-2- and PI9-positive tumor cells were found to predict unfavorable prognosis. This prognostic effect was strongly related to anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK) status: ALK-positive ALCL had significantly higher levels of active caspase 3, while high expression of the antiapoptotic proteins Bcl-2 and PI9 was almost completely restricted to ALK-negative cases. In conclusion, high numbers of active caspase 3-positive tumor cells predict a highly favorable prognosis in systemic ALCL patients. Poor prognosis is strongly related to high numbers of Bcl-2- and PI9-positive neoplastic cells. These data support the notion that a favorable response to chemotherapy depends on an intact apoptosis cascade. Moreover, these data indicate that differences in prognosis between ALK-positive and ALK-negative ALCL might be explained by differences in expression of apoptosis-inhibiting proteins.

  17. Deep grey matter growth predicts neurodevelopmental outcomes in very preterm children.

    PubMed

    Young, Julia M; Powell, Tamara L; Morgan, Benjamin R; Card, Dallas; Lee, Wayne; Smith, Mary Lou; Sled, John G; Taylor, Margot J

    2015-05-01

    We evaluated whether the volume and growth rate of critical brain structures measured by MRI in the first weeks of life following very preterm (<32/40 weeks) birth could predict subsequent neurodevelopmental outcomes at 4 years of age. A significant proportion of children born very prematurely have cognitive deficits, but these problems are often only detected at early school age. Structural T2-weighted magnetic resonance images were acquired in 96 very preterm neonates scanned within 2 weeks of birth and 70 of these at term-equivalent age. An automated 3D image analysis procedure was used to measure the volume of selected brain structures across all scans and time points. At 4 years of age, 53 children returned for neuropsychological assessments evaluating IQ, language and visual motor integration. Associations with maternal education and perinatal measures were also explored. Multiple regression analyses revealed that growth of the caudate and globus pallidus between preterm birth and term-equivalent age predicted visual motor integration scores after controlling for sex and gestational age. Further associations were found between caudate and putamen growth with IQ and language scores. Analyses at either preterm or term-equivalent age only found associations between normalized deep grey matter growth and visual motor integration scores at term-equivalent age. Maternal education levels were associated with measures of IQ and language, but not visual motor integration. Thalamic growth was additionally linked with perinatal measures and presence of white matter lesions. These results highlight deep grey matter growth rates as promising biomarkers of long-term outcomes following very preterm birth, and contribute to our understanding of the brain-behaviour relations in these children.

  18. Using electronic health records to predict costs and outcomes in stable coronary artery disease

    PubMed Central

    Asaria, Miqdad; Walker, Simon; Palmer, Stephen; Gale, Chris P; Shah, Anoop D; Abrams, Keith R; Crowther, Michael; Manca, Andrea; Timmis, Adam; Hemingway, Harry; Sculpher, Mark

    2016-01-01

    Objectives To use electronic health records (EHR) to predict lifetime costs and health outcomes of patients with stable coronary artery disease (stable-CAD) stratified by their risk of future cardiovascular events, and to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of treatments targeted at these populations. Methods The analysis was based on 94 966 patients with stable-CAD in England between 2001 and 2010, identified in four prospectively collected, linked EHR sources. Markov modelling was used to estimate lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) stratified by baseline cardiovascular risk. Results For the lowest risk tenth of patients with stable-CAD, predicted discounted remaining lifetime healthcare costs and QALYs were £62 210 (95% CI £33 724 to £90 043) and 12.0 (95% CI 11.5 to 12.5) years, respectively. For the highest risk tenth of the population, the equivalent costs and QALYs were £35 549 (95% CI £31 679 to £39 615) and 2.9 (95% CI 2.6 to 3.1) years, respectively. A new treatment with a hazard reduction of 20% for myocardial infarction, stroke and cardiovascular disease death and no side-effects would be cost-effective if priced below £72 per year for the lowest risk patients and £646 per year for the highest risk patients. Conclusions Existing EHRs may be used to estimate lifetime healthcare costs and outcomes of patients with stable-CAD. The stable-CAD model developed in this study lends itself to informing decisions about commissioning, pricing and reimbursement. At current prices, to be cost-effective some established as well as future stable-CAD treatments may require stratification by patient risk. PMID:26864674

  19. Autologous serum and plasma skin test to predict 2-year outcome in chronic spontaneous urticaria

    PubMed Central

    Sangasapaviliya, Atik

    2016-01-01

    Background Autologous serum skin test (ASST) and autologous plasma skin test (APST) are simple methods to diagnose autoimmune chronic urticaria. However, the association data of ASST or APST with disease severity and long-term outcome are still unclear. Objective The results of ASST and APST might be used to predict urticaria symptom severity and long-term outcomes among chronic spontaneous urticaria (CSU) patients. Methods We evaluated the prevalence of reactive ASST and APST in 128 CSU patients. The patients were characterized by 4 groups: negative, ASST positive, APST positive, and both ASST and APST positive. We observed remission rate among the CSU patients during 2 years. Results Forty-four of 128 CSU patients (34%) had negative autologous skin test. The CSU patients with positive ASST, positive APST, and both positive ASST and APST were 47 (37%), 6 (5%), and 31 (24%), respectively. No significant difference was found between the groups according to urticaria severity score (USS) and dermatology life quality index (DLQI). Mean wheal diameter of ASST showed positive correlation with DLQI. Also, mean wheal diameter of APST showed positive correlation with USS and DLQI. Both the positive ASST and APST groups had a high proportion of 4-fold dose of H1-antihistamine than the positive ASST (p = 0.03) and negative groups (p = 0.0009). The rate of remission over 2 years in the negative, positive ASST, positive APST, and both positive ASST and APST groups were 81.1%, 62.3%, 60%, and 46.1%, respectively. The urticaria remission rate in patients in the negative group was significantly higher compared with both positive ASST and APST groups (odds ratio, 5.0; 95% confidence interval, 1.61–15.44; p = 0.006). Conclusion ASST and APST results could predict remission rates among patients with CSU. Our results suggested investigating ASST and APST among CSU patients before starting treatment. PMID:27803883

  20. Quantitative lobar cerebral blood flow for outcome prediction after traumatic brain injury.

    PubMed

    Fridley, Jared; Robertson, Claudia; Gopinath, Shankar

    2015-01-15

    The aim of this study was to examine cortical cerebral blood flow (CBF) in patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI) and determine whether lobar cortical CBF is a better predictor of long-term neurological outcome assessed by the Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) than global cortical CBF. Ninety-eight patients with TBI had a stable xenon computed tomography scan (Xe/CT-CBF study) performed at various time points after their initial injury. Spearman's correlation coefficients and Kruskall-Wallis' test were used to examine the relationship between patient age, emergency room Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), Injury Severity Score, prehospital hypotension, prehospital hypoxia, mechanism of injury, type of injury, side of injury, global average CBF, lobar CBF, number of lobes with CBF below normal, and GOS (discharge, 3 and 6 months). Univariate ordinal regression was performed using these same variables and in combination with principle component analysis (PCA) to determine independent variables for multi-variate ordinal regression. Significant correlation between age, GCS, prehospital hypotension, type of injury, global average CBF, lobar CBF, number of lobes below normal CBF, and GOS was found. Individual lobar CBF was highly correlated with global CBF and the number of lobes below normal CBF. PCA found one principle component among these three CBF variables; therefore, average global CBF and number of lobes with CBF below normal were each chosen as independent variables for multiple ordinal regression, which found age, GCS, and prehospital hypotension, global average CBF, and number of lobes below normal CBF significantly associated with GOS. This study found global average CBF and lobar CBF significantly correlated with GOS at follow-up. There was, however, no individual cerebral lobe that was more predictive than any other, which puts into question the value of calculating lobar CBF versus global CBF in predicting GOS.

  1. Predictability of horizontal versus vertical muscle surgery outcomes in thyroid eye disease.

    PubMed

    Iordanous, Yiannis; Sharan, Sapna; Robitaille, Johanne; Walsh, Leah; LaRoche, G Robert

    2016-08-01

    Surgical repair of vertical muscles in thyroid eye disease (TED) is believed to yield more unpredictable results than horizontal muscle surgery. The purpose of this study is to determine if the short-term outcomes for strabismus surgery in TED are equally predictable for horizontal and vertical muscle surgery. We retrospectively reviewed the charts of 27 consecutive patients who underwent strabismus surgery for TED from a single surgeon's practice. Eligibility for inclusion in the study included biochemically stable thyroid disease for at least a year and stable orthoptic measurements for at least 6 months prior to surgery. Nine patients had surgery only on vertical rectus muscles, three only on horizontal, and fifteen on both vertical and horizontal rectus muscles. Mean follow-up was 2.4 ± 5.2 months. In primary gaze at 6 m, a mean horizontal deviation of 16.6 ± 22.3 PD, and a mean vertical deviation of 19.7 ± 14.1 PD were measured pre-operatively. Post-operatively, this measured 2.3 ± 8.4 PD horizontally and 2.1 ± 7.8 PD vertically (p = 0.933). There was no statistically significant difference between post-operative horizontal and vertical deviations in elevation, depression, adduction, and abduction. Nine patients required reoperation to attain satisfactory ocular alignment; seven of these cases involved repeat surgery on vertical muscles, while two cases required operation on both horizontal and vertical muscles. Results suggest that surgical outcomes of both horizontal and vertical muscle surgery are equally predictable in stable TED; however, reoperation rates were higher for vertical muscles compared to horizontal muscles. PMID:26559967

  2. An intronic variant in OPRD1 predicts treatment outcome for opioid dependence in African-Americans.

    PubMed

    Crist, Richard C; Clarke, Toni-Kim; Ang, Alfonso; Ambrose-Lanci, Lisa M; Lohoff, Falk W; Saxon, Andrew J; Ling, Walter; Hillhouse, Maureen P; Bruce, R Douglas; Woody, George; Berrettini, Wade H

    2013-09-01

    Although buprenorphine and methadone are both effective treatments for opioid dependence, their efficacy can vary significantly among patients. Genetic differences may explain some of the variability in treatment outcome. Understanding the interactions between genetic background and pharmacotherapy may result in more informed treatment decisions. This study is a pharmacogenetic analysis of the effects of genetic variants in OPRD1, the gene encoding the δ-opioid receptor, on the prevalence of opioid-positive urine tests in African-Americans (n=77) or European-Americans (n=566) undergoing treatment for opioid dependence. Patients were randomly assigned to treatment with either methadone or buprenorphine/naloxone (Suboxone) over a 24-week open-label clinical trial, in which illicit opioid use was measured by weekly urinalysis. In African-Americans, the intronic SNP rs678849 predicted treatment outcome for both medications. Methadone patients with the CC genotype were less likely to have opioid-positive urine tests than those in the combined CT and TT genotypes group (relative risk (RR)=0.52, 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.44-0.60, p=0.001). In the buprenorphine treatment group, however, individuals with the CC genotype were more likely to have positive opioid drug screens than individuals in the combined CT and TT genotypes group (RR=2.17, 95% CI=1.95-2.68, p=0.008). These findings indicate that the genotype at rs678849 predicts African-American patient response to two common treatments for opioid dependence, suggesting that matching patients to treatment type based on the genotype at this locus may improve overall treatment efficacy. This observation requires confirmation in an independent population. PMID:23612435

  3. Anti-Phospholipase A2 Receptor Antibody Titer Predicts Post-Rituximab Outcome of Membranous Nephropathy.

    PubMed

    Ruggenenti, Piero; Debiec, Hanna; Ruggiero, Barbara; Chianca, Antonietta; Pellé, Timothee; Gaspari, Flavio; Suardi, Flavio; Gagliardini, Elena; Orisio, Silvia; Benigni, Ariela; Ronco, Pierre; Remuzzi, Giuseppe

    2015-10-01

    Rituximab induces nephrotic syndrome (NS) remission in two-thirds of patients with primary membranous nephropathy (MN), even after other treatments have failed. To assess the relationships among treatment effect, circulating nephritogenic anti-phospholipase A2 receptor (anti-PLA2R) autoantibodies and genetic polymorphisms predisposing to antibody production we serially monitored 24-hour proteinuria and antibody titer in patients with primary MN and long-lasting NS consenting to rituximab (375 mg/m(2)) therapy and genetic analyses. Over a median (range) follow-up of 30.8 (6.0-145.4) months, 84 of 132 rituximab-treated patients achieved complete or partial NS remission (primary end point), and 25 relapsed after remission. Outcomes of patients with or without detectable anti-PLA2R antibodies at baseline were similar. Among the 81 patients with antibodies, lower anti-PLA2R antibody titer at baseline (P=0.001) and full antibody depletion 6 months post-rituximab (hazard ratio [HR], 7.90; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 2.54 to 24.60; P<0.001) strongly predicted remission. All 25 complete remissions were preceded by complete anti-PLA2R antibody depletion. On average, 50% anti-PLA2R titer reduction preceded equivalent proteinuria reduction by 10 months. Re-emergence of circulating antibodies predicted disease relapse (HR, 6.54; 95% CI, 1.57 to 27.40; P=0.01), whereas initial complete remission protected from the event (HR, 6.63; 95% CI, 2.37 to 18.53; P<0.001). Eighteen patients achieved persistent antibody depletion and complete remission and never relapsed. Outcome was independent of PLA2R1 and HLA-DQA1 polymorphisms and of previous immunosuppressive treatment. Therefore, assessing circulating anti-PLA2R autoantibodies and proteinuria may help in monitoring disease activity and guiding personalized rituximab therapy in nephrotic patients with primary MN.

  4. Precise Classification of Cervical Carcinomas Combined with Somatic Mutation Profiling Contributes to Predicting Disease Outcome

    PubMed Central

    Spaans, Vivian M.; Trietsch, Marjolijn D.; Peters, Alexander A. W.; Osse, Michelle; ter Haar, Natalja; Fleuren, Gert J.; Jordanova, Ekaterina S.

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Squamous cell carcinoma (SCC), adenocarcinoma (AC), and adenosquamous carcinoma (ASC) are the most common histological subtypes of cervical cancer. Differences in the somatic mutation profiles of these subtypes have been suggested. We investigated the prevalence of somatic hot-spot mutations in three well-defined cohorts of SCC, AC, and ASC and determined the additional value of mutation profiling in predicting disease outcome relative to well-established prognostic parameters. Materials and Methods Clinicopathological data were collected for 301 cervical tumors classified as SCC (n=166), AC (n=55), or ASC (n=80). Mass spectrometry was used to analyze 171 somatic hot-spot mutations in 13 relevant genes. Results In 103 (34%) tumors, 123 mutations were detected (36% in SCC, 38% in AC, and 28% in ASC), mostly in PIK3CA (20%) and KRAS (7%). PIK3CA mutations occurred more frequently in SCC than AC (25% vs. 11%, P=0.025), whereas KRAS mutations occurred more frequently in AC than SCC (24% vs. 3%, P<0.001) and ASC (24% vs. 3%, P<0.001). A positive mutation status correlated with worse disease-free survival (HR 1.57, P=0.043). In multivariate analysis, tumor diameter, parametrial infiltration, and lymph node metastasis, but not the presence of a somatic mutation, were independent predictors of survival. Conclusion Potentially targetable somatic mutations occurred in 34% of cervical tumors with different distributions among histological subtypes. Precise classification of cervical carcinomas in combination with mutation profiling is valuable for predicting disease outcome and may guide the development and selection of tumor-specific treatment approaches. PMID:26197069

  5. An Intronic Variant in OPRD1 Predicts Treatment Outcome for Opioid Dependence in African-Americans

    PubMed Central

    Crist, Richard C; Clarke, Toni-Kim; Ang, Alfonso; Ambrose-Lanci, Lisa M; Lohoff, Falk W; Saxon, Andrew J; Ling, Walter; Hillhouse, Maureen P; Bruce, R Douglas; Woody, George; Berrettini, Wade H

    2013-01-01

    Although buprenorphine and methadone are both effective treatments for opioid dependence, their efficacy can vary significantly among patients. Genetic differences may explain some of the variability in treatment outcome. Understanding the interactions between genetic background and pharmacotherapy may result in more informed treatment decisions. This study is a pharmacogenetic analysis of the effects of genetic variants in OPRD1, the gene encoding the δ-opioid receptor, on the prevalence of opioid-positive urine tests in African-Americans (n=77) or European-Americans (n=566) undergoing treatment for opioid dependence. Patients were randomly assigned to treatment with either methadone or buprenorphine/naloxone (Suboxone) over a 24-week open-label clinical trial, in which illicit opioid use was measured by weekly urinalysis. In African-Americans, the intronic SNP rs678849 predicted treatment outcome for both medications. Methadone patients with the CC genotype were less likely to have opioid-positive urine tests than those in the combined CT and TT genotypes group (relative risk (RR)=0.52, 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.44–0.60, p=0.001). In the buprenorphine treatment group, however, individuals with the CC genotype were more likely to have positive opioid drug screens than individuals in the combined CT and TT genotypes group (RR=2.17, 95% CI=1.95–2.68, p=0.008). These findings indicate that the genotype at rs678849 predicts African-American patient response to two common treatments for opioid dependence, suggesting that matching patients to treatment type based on the genotype at this locus may improve overall treatment efficacy. This observation requires confirmation in an independent population. PMID:23612435

  6. Fragmentation and ablation during entry

    SciTech Connect

    Canavan, G.H.

    1997-09-01

    This note discusses objects that both fragment and ablate during entry, using the results of previous reports to describe the velocity, pressure, and fragmentation of entering objects. It shows that the mechanisms used there to describe the breakup of non-ablating objects during deceleration remain valid for most ablating objects. It treats coupled fragmentation and ablation during entry, building on earlier models that separately discuss the entry of objects that are hard, whose high heat of ablation permits little erosion, and those who are strong whose strength prevents fragmentation, which are discussed in ``Radiation from Hard Objects,`` ``Deceleration and Radiation of Strong, Hard, Asteroids During Atmospheric Impact,`` and ``Meteor Signature Interpretation.`` This note provides a more detailed treatment of the further breakup and separation of fragments during descent. It replaces the constraint on mass per unit area used earlier to determine the altitude and magnitude of peak power radiation with a detailed analytic solution of deceleration. Model predictions are shown to be in agreement with the key features of numerical calculations of deceleration. The model equations are solved for the altitudes of maximum radiation, which agree with numerical integrations. The model is inverted analytically to infer object size and speed from measurements of peak power and altitude to provide a complete model for the approximate inversion of meteor data.

  7. The case against using the APACHE system to predict intensive care unit outcome in trauma patients.

    PubMed

    Vassar, M J; Holcroft, J W

    1994-01-01

    The use of outcome indices as a means of evaluating institutional performance for delivery of medical care is at the forefront of federal health policy reforms. Because an enormous number of clinical and financial data are generated by ICU patients, it is inevitable that integrated bedside computers will be necessary to supply the type of information that is being sought by governmental and private insurance agencies involved in assessment of hospital performance. The Health Care Financing Administration already has adopted the APACHE data collection protocols and predictive models for the severity of illness adjustments that were used in assessing the 1986 hospital-specific death rate for acute myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, stroke, and pneumonia. In our opinion, however, it is unlikely that any single system will be developed that can accurately estimate more than 50% of ICU deaths. The intention of the APACHE III system to include 78 diagnostic categories seems unrealistic. Furthermore, the number of data needed to document outcomes for both low- and high-risk admissions is impractical. We are evaluating APACHE III to determine whether the revisions to the definition for head trauma will represent a significant improvement in predicting outcomes for trauma patients. In the interim, the financial investment in the APACHE III automated bedside data collection system cannot be justified for trauma patients. Neither should it be used in ICUs that admit a large number of trauma patients as a tool for monitoring unit efficiency, guiding triage decisions, allocating staff and ICU beds, identifying risks of iatrogenic or other potential complications, or assessing quality of life, in spite of marketing efforts by the APACHE Corporation. We believe that using any of the APACHE systems for these purposes, at best, is premature, and potentially misrepresents the trauma patient population. Standards for patient classification already are in place for use

  8. Prediction of functional outcome by motor capability after spinal cord injury.

    PubMed

    Lazar, R B; Yarkony, G M; Ortolano, D; Heinemann, A W; Perlow, E; Lovell, L; Meyer, P R

    1989-11-01

    The relationship between early motor status and functional outcome after spinal cord injury (SCI) was evaluated prospectively in 52 quadriplegic and 26 paraplegic patients. Motor status was measured within 72 hours of injury and quantified with the Motor Index Score (MIS). Functional status was evaluated with the Modified Barthel Index (MBI). A senior physical therapist completed the MIS and the MBI when each patient was admitted to the spinal cord intensive care unit and every 30 days during rehabilitation. Early motor function was correlated with average daily improvement in functional status including self-care and mobility (p = .001). The initial MIS strongly correlated with functional status of quadriplegics at admission (p = .001), at 60 days, and at rehabilitation discharge (p = .001). In paraplegics, the overall MBI at admission, after 60 days of rehabilitation, and at discharge was not correlated with early motor function. However, the MIS correlated significantly with the MBI self-care subscore at 60 days and at discharge (p = .01), but not with the mobility subscore. The initial MIS was also significantly correlated to functional status at discharge in patients with complete lesions (p = .001), but was not related to functional status at discharge in patients with incomplete lesions. The MIS appears to be a useful tool in predicting function during rehabilitation, although individual differences in ambulation, particularly for patients with paraplegia, limit the predictive utility of this index. PMID:2818153

  9. Predicting outcomes in organophosphate poisoning based on APACHE II and modified APACHE II scores.

    PubMed

    Eizadi-Mood, N; Saghaei, M; Jabalameli, M

    2007-07-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the scores of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II and a modified APACHE II system (MAS), without parameters of biochemical tests; and to find prognostic value of individual elements of the APACHE II and MAS in predicting outcomes in organophosphate (OP) poisoning. Data were collected from 131 patients. The median (25th-75th percentiles) of APACHE II score for survivors without intubation were found to be lower than those of non survivors or survivors with intubation and ventilation, [4 (1-7); versus 17.5 (7.8-29), and 13.5 (7.8-16.3)]. Logistic regression analysis identified white blood cell (WBC), potassium, Glasgow coma scale (GCS), age and sodium in APACHE II; GCS and mean arterial pressure in MAS system as prognostically valuable. There was no statistically significance difference between APACHE II and MAS scores in terms of area under Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve [(0.902, 95% confidence interval: (0.837-0.947) for APACHE II), and (0.892, 95% confidence interval: (0.826-0.940) for MAS); P=0.74) to predict need for intubation. It is concluded usage of MAS facilitates the prognostication of the OP poisoned patients due to simplicity, less time-consuming and effectiveness in an emergency situation.

  10. Health risk perceptions predict smoking-related outcomes in Greek college students.

    PubMed

    Jacobson, John D; Catley, Delwyn; Lee, Hyoung S; Harrar, Solomon W; Harris, Kari Jo

    2014-09-01

    Health risk perception in smoking behavior was prospectively evaluated in a cluster-randomized trial for smoking cessation in Greek college students. Perceived Vulnerability (PV), Precaution Effectiveness, Optimistic Bias, and smoking behavior measures (quit attempts and cessation) were assessed in college-aged Greek student smokers at baseline, end of treatment (3 months), and follow-up (6 months). Using generalized estimating equations, baseline risk perception variables and change in risk perception variables between baseline and end of treatment were examined as predictors of the dichotomous smoking outcome variables. Results revealed that higher baseline PV [OR = 1.42 (1.21, 1.68)] predicted a greater likelihood of a quit attempt (n = 267). An increased likelihood of cessation [OR = 1.41 (1.15, 1.72)] was also predicted by an increase in PV from baseline to end of treatment (n = 243). Overall results suggested that PV was the strongest predictor of smoking behavior change, supporting further examination of health risk perceptions in promoting smoking cessation among Greek college smokers.

  11. A Prognostic Model Predicting Autologous Transplantation Outcomes in Children, Adolescents and Young Adults with Hodgkin Lymphoma

    PubMed Central

    Satwani, Prakash; Ahn, Kwang Woo; Carreras, Jeanette; Abdel-Azim, Hisham; Cairo, Mitchell S.; Cashen, Amanda; Chen, Andy I.; Cohen, Jonathon B.; Costa, Luciano J.; Dandoy, Christopher; Fenske, Timothy S.; Freytes, César O.; Ganguly, Siddhartha; Gale, Robert Peter; Ghosh, Nilanjan; Hertzberg, Mark S.; Hayashi, Robert J.; Kamble, Rummurti T.; Kanate, Abraham S.; Keating, Armand; Kharfan-Dabaja, Mohamed A.; Lazarus, Hillard M.; Marks, David I.; Nishihori, Taiga; Olsson, Richard F.; Prestidge, Tim D.; Rolon, Juliana Martinez; Savani, Bipin N.; Vose, Julie M.; Wood, William A.; Inwards, David J.; Bachanova, Veronika; Smith, Sonali M.; Maloney, David G.; Sureda, Anna; Hamadani, Mehdi

    2015-01-01

    Autologous hematopoietic cell transplantation (AutoHCT) is a potentially curative treatment modality for relapsed/refractory Hodgkin lymphoma (HL). However, no large studies have evaluated pre-transplant factors predictive of outcomes of AutoHCT in children, adolescents and young adults (CAYA, age <30 years). In a retrospective study, we analyzed 606 CAYA patients (median age 23 years) with relapsed/refractory HL who underwent AutoHCT between 1995–2010. The probabilities of progression free survival (PFS) at 1, 5 and 10 years were 66% (95% CI: 62–70), 52% (95% CI: 48–57) and 47% (95% CI: 42–51), respectively. Multivariate analysis for PFS demonstrated that at the time of AutoHCT patients with Karnofsky/Lansky score ≥90, no extranodal involvement and chemosensitive disease had significantly improved PFS. Patients with time from diagnosis to first relapse of <1 year had a significantly inferior PFS. A prognostic model for PFS was developed that stratified patients into low, intermediate and high-risk groups, predicting for 5-year PFS probabilities of 72% (95% CI: 64–80), 53% (95% CI: 47–59) and 23% (95% CI: 9–36), respectively. This large study identifies a group of CAYA patients with relapsed/refractory HL who are at high risk for progression after AutoHCT. Such patients should be targeted for novel therapeutic and/or maintenance approaches post-AutoHCT. PMID:26237164

  12. Prediction of outcome in breast cancer patients using test parameters from complete blood count

    PubMed Central

    ZHANG, PINGPING; ZONG, YULONG; LIU, MOHAN; TAI, YANHONG; CAO, YUAN; HU, CHENGIIN

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic effect of test parameters from pretreatment complete blood count (CBC) for predicting outcome in breast cancer patients. A total of 162 patients with breast cancer and a long follow-up were enrolled in this study. Red cell indices (RCIs) and neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) from CBC prior to treatment, as well as related clinical data, were retrospectively collected. We evaluated the association of RCI and NLR with tumor size, clinical stage, histological grade, estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 status. We further performed survival analysis and Cox multivariate analysis, stratified by RCI and NLR median values, to evaluate their prognostic effects. In the disease-free survival (DFS) analysis, patients in the higher mean corpuscular hemoglobin (MCH) and NLR groups exhibited shorter DFS times compared with those in the lower MCH and NLR groups (P=0.017 for MCH and P=0.039 for NLR). The univariate analysis revealed that both MCH and NLR were significantly associated with DFS. The Cox multivariate analysis demonstrated that only MCH was an independent predictor associated with disease relapse (hazard ratio = 1.975, 95% confidence interval: 1.118–3.487, P=0.019), whereas no index was associated with overall survival. Our results suggest that MCH prior to treatment may be a predictive marker associated with DFS in breast cancer. PMID:27284423

  13. Acute megakaryoblastic leukemia, unlike acute erythroid leukemia, predicts an unfavorable outcome after allogeneic HSCT.

    PubMed

    Ishiyama, Ken; Yamaguchi, Takuhiro; Eto, Tetsuya; Ohashi, Kazuteru; Uchida, Naoyuki; Kanamori, Heiwa; Fukuda, Takahiro; Miyamura, Koichi; Inoue, Yoshiko; Taguchi, Jun; Mori, Takehiko; Iwato, Koji; Morishima, Yasuo; Nagamura-Inoue, Tokiko; Atsuta, Yoshiko; Sakamaki, Hisashi; Takami, Akiyoshi

    2016-08-01

    Acute erythroid leukemia (FAB-M6) and acute megakaryoblastic leukemia (FAB-M7) exhibit closely related properties in cells regarding morphology and the gene expression profile. Although allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT) is considered the mainstay of the treatment for both subtypes of leukemia due to their refractoriness to chemotherapy and high rates of relapse, it remains unclear whether allo-HSCT is curative in such cases due to their scarcity. We retrospectively examined the impact of allo-HSCT in 382 patients with M6 and 108 patients with M7 using nationwide HSCT data and found the overall survival (OS) and relapse rates of the M6 patients to be significantly better than those of the M7 patients after adjusting for confounding factors and statistically comparable with those of the patients with M0/M1/M2/M4/M5 disease. Consequently, the factors of age, gender, performance status, karyotype, disease status at HSCT and development of graft-vs.-host disease predicted the OS for the M6 patients, while the performance status and disease status at HSCT were predictive of the OS for the M7 patients. These findings substantiate the importance of distinguishing between M6 and M7 in the HSCT setting and suggest that unknown mechanisms influence the HSCT outcomes of these closely related subtypes of leukemia. PMID:27244257

  14. Automated Physician Order Recommendations and Outcome Predictions by Data-Mining Electronic Medical Records

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Jonathan H.; Altman, Russ B.

    2014-01-01

    The meaningful use of electronic medical records (EMR) will come from effective clinical decision support (CDS) applied to physician orders, the concrete manifestation of clinical decision making. CDS development is currently limited by a top-down approach, requiring manual production and limited end-user awareness. A statistical data-mining alternative automatically extracts expertise as association statistics from structured EMR data (>5.4M data elements from >19K inpatient encounters). This powers an order recommendation system analogous to commercial systems (e.g., Amazon.com’s “Customers who bought this…”). Compared to a standard benchmark, the association method improves order prediction precision from 26% to 37% (p<0.01). Introducing an inverse frequency weighted recall metric demonstrates a quantifiable improvement from 3% to 17% (p<0.01) in recommending more specifically relevant orders. The system also predicts clinical outcomes, such as 30 day mortality and 1 week ICU intervention, with ROC AUC of 0.88 and 0.78 respectively, comparable to state-of-the-art prognosis scores. PMID:25717414

  15. Plasma genetic and genomic abnormalities predict treatment response and clinical outcome in advanced prostate cancer

    PubMed Central

    Du, Meijun; Dittmar, Rachel L.; Lee, Adam; Nandy, Debashis; Yuan, Tiezheng; Guo, Yongchen; Wang, Yuan; Tschannen, Michael R.; Worthey, Elizabeth; Jacob, Howard; See, William; Kilari, Deepak; Wang, Xuexia; Hovey, Raymond L.; Huang, Chiang-Ching; Wang, Liang

    2015-01-01

    Liquid biopsies, examinations of tumor components in body fluids, have shown promise for predicting clinical outcomes. To evaluate tumor-associated genomic and genetic variations in plasma cell-free DNA (cfDNA) and their associations with treatment response and overall survival, we applied whole genome and targeted sequencing to examine the plasma cfDNAs derived from 20 patients with advanced prostate cancer. Sequencing-based genomic abnormality analysis revealed locus-specific gains or losses that were common in prostate cancer, such as 8q gains, AR amplifications, PTEN losses and TMPRSS2-ERG fusions. To estimate tumor burden in cfDNA, we developed a Plasma Genomic Abnormality (PGA) score by summing the most significant copy number variations. Cox regression analysis showed that PGA scores were significantly associated with overall survival (p < 0.04). After androgen deprivation therapy or chemotherapy, targeted sequencing showed significant mutational profile changes in genes involved in androgen biosynthesis, AR activation, DNA repair, and chemotherapy resistance. These changes may reflect the dynamic evolution of heterozygous tumor populations in response to these treatments. These results strongly support the feasibility of using non-invasive liquid biopsies as potential tools to study biological mechanisms underlying therapy-specific resistance and to predict disease progression in advanced prostate cancer. PMID:25915538

  16. Multi-Marker Strategy in Heart Failure: Combination of ST2 and CRP Predicts Poor Outcome

    PubMed Central

    Dupuy, Anne Marie; Curinier, Corentin; Kuster, Nils; Huet, Fabien; Leclercq, Florence; Davy, Jean Marc; Cristol, Jean Paul; Roubille, François

    2016-01-01

    Natriuretic peptides (BNP and NT-proBNP) are recognized as gold-standard predictive markers in Heart Failure (HF). However, currently ST2 (member of the interleukin 1 receptor family) has emerged as marker of inflammation, fibrosis and cardiac stress. We evaluated ST2 and CRP as prognostic markers in 178 patients with chronic heart failure in comparison with other classical markers such as clinical established parameters but also biological markers: NT-proBNP, hs-cTnT alone or in combination. In multivariate analysis, subsequent addition of ST2 led to age, CRP and ST2 as the only remaining predictors of all-cause mortality (HR 1.03, HR 1.61 and HR 2.75, respectively) as well as of cardiovascular mortality (HR 1.00, HR 2.27 and HR 3.78, respectively). The combined increase of ST2 and CRP was significant for predicting worsened outcomes leading to identify a high risk subgroup that individual assessment of either marker. The same analysis was performed with ST2 in combination with Barcelona score. Overall, our findings extend previous data demonstrating that ST2 in combination with CRP as a valuable tool for identifying patients at risk of death. PMID:27311068

  17. Current Status of Thermal Ablation Treatments for Lung Malignancies

    PubMed Central

    Dupuy, Damian E.; Shulman, Maria

    2010-01-01

    About 75% of lung cancer patients are not surgical candidates, either due to advanced disease or medical comorbidities. Furthermore, conventional treatments that can be offered to these patients are beneficial only to a small percentage of them. Thermal ablation is a minimally invasive treatment that is commonly used in this group of patients, and which has shown promising results. Currently, the most widely used ablation techniques in the treatment of lung malignancies are radiofrequency ablation (RFA), microwave ablation, and cryoablation. Although the most studied technique is RFA, recent studies with microwave ablation and cryoablation have shown some advantages over RFA. This article reviews the application of thermal ablation in the thorax, including patient selection, basic aspects of procedure technique, imaging follow-up, treatment outcomes, and comparison of ablation techniques. PMID:22550366

  18. Time to lowest postoperative carcinoembryonic antigen level is predictive on survival outcome in rectal cancer

    PubMed Central

    Yu, Huichuan; Luo, Yanxin; Wang, Xiaolin; Bai, Liangliang; Huang, Pinzhu; Wang, Lei; Huang, Meijin; Deng, Yanhong; Wang, Jianping

    2016-01-01

    This study was to investigate whether the time to the lowest postoperative CEA can predict cancer survival. We enrolled 155 rectal cancer patients in this retrospective and longitudinal cohort study. Deepness of response (DpR) of CEA refers to the relative change of the lowest postoperative CEA level from baseline, and time to DpR (TTDpR) refers to the time from surgery to the lowest postoperative CEA level. The median of TTDpR and DpR was 4.5 (range, 3.0–18.0) weeks and −67% (range, −99% to 114%) respectively. Patients with TTDpR 4.5 weeks. Using TTDpR as a continuous variable, the HR of DFS and OS was 1.13 (95% CI 1.06–1.22, P = 0.001) and 1.17 (95% CI 1.07–1.29, P = 0.001) respectively. On multivariate analysis, the predictive value of prolonged TTDpR remained [adjusted HRs: 1.12 (95% CI 1.03–1.21, P = 0.006) and 1.17 (95% CI 1.06–1.28, P = 0.001)]. These findings remained significant in patients with normal preoperative CEA. Our results showed prolonged TTDpR of CEA independently predicted unfavorable survival outcomes, regardless of whether preoperative CEA was elevated or not. PMID:27658525

  19. BRAF mutation is not predictive of long-term outcome in papillary thyroid carcinoma.

    PubMed

    Henke, Lauren E; Pfeifer, John D; Ma, Changquing; Perkins, Stephanie M; DeWees, Todd; El-Mofty, Samir; Moley, Jeffrey F; Nussenbaum, Brian; Haughey, Bruce H; Baranski, Thomas J; Schwarz, Julie K; Grigsby, Perry W

    2015-06-01

    The BRAF mutation occurs commonly in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). Previous investigations of its utility to predict recurrence-free survival (RFS) and disease-specific survival (DSS) have reported conflicting results and its role remains unclear. The purpose of this retrospective study was to determine the incidence of the BRAF mutation and analyze its relationship to clinicopathologic risk factors and long-term outcomes in the largest, single-institution American cohort to date. BRAF mutational status was determined in 508 PTC patients using RFLP analysis. The relationships between BRAF mutation status, patient and tumor characteristics, RFS, and DSS were analyzed. The BRAF mutation was present in 67% of patients. On multivariate analysis, presence of the mutation predicted only for capsular invasion (HR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.1-2.6), cervical lymph node involvement (HR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.1-2.7), and classic papillary histology (HR, 1.8; 95% CI 1.1-2.9). There was no significant relationship between the BRAF mutation and RFS or DSS, an observation that was consistent across univariate, multivariate, and Kaplan-Meier analyses. This is the most extensive study to date in the United States to demonstrate that BRAF mutation is of no predictive value for recurrence or survival in PTC. We found correlations of BRAF status and several clinicopathologic characteristics of high-risk disease, but limited evidence that the mutation correlates with more extensive or aggressive disease. This analysis suggests that BRAF is minimally prognostic in PTC. However, prevalence of the BRAF mutation is 70% in the general population, providing the opportunity for targeted therapy.

  20. Predicting Outcome in Acute Organophosphorus Poisoning with a Poison Severity Score or the Glasgow Coma Scale

    PubMed Central

    Davies, James O. J.; Eddleston, Michael; Buckley, Nick A.

    2008-01-01

    Background: Organophosphorus pesticide poisoning kills around 200,000 people each year, principally due to self poisoning in the Asia-Pacific region. Aim: We wished to assess whether patients at high risk of death could be identified accurately using clinical parameters soon after hospital admission. Design: We evaluated the usefulness of the International Program on Chemical Safety Poison Severity Score (IPCS PSS) and the Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) prospectively for predicting death in patients poisoned by organophosphorus pesticides. Methods: Data were collected as part of a multicentre cohort study in Sri Lanka. Study doctors saw all patients on admission, collecting data on pulse, blood pressure, pupil size, need for intubation, and GCS. Results: 1365 patients with a history of acute organophosphorus poisoning were included. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were calculated for the IPCS PSS and GCS on admission. The IPCS PSS and GCS had similar ROC area under the curves (AUC) and best cut points as determined by Youden's index (AUC/sensitivity/specificity 0.81/0.78/0.79 for IPCS PSS ≥ grade 2 and 0.84/0.79/0.79 for GCS ≤13). The predictive value varied with the pesticide ingested, being more accurate for dimethoate poisoning and less accurate for fenthion poisoning (GCS AUC 0.91 compared to 0.69). Conclusions: GCS and the IPCS PSS were similarly effective at predicting outcome. Patients presenting with a GCS ≤ 13 need intensive monitoring and treatment. However, the identity of the organophosphate must be taken into account since the half of all patients who died from fenthion poisoning only had mild symptoms at presentation. PMID:18319295

  1. Somatosensory and Brainstem Auditory Evoked Potentials Assessed between 4 and 7 Days after Severe Stroke Onset Predict Unfavorable Outcome.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Yan; Su, Ying Ying; Xiao, Shu Ying; Liu, Yi Fei

    2015-01-01

    Our objective was to explore the best predictive timing of short-latency somatosensory evoked potentials (SLSEP) and brainstem auditory evoked potentials (BAEP) for unfavorable outcomes in patients with early stage severe stroke. One hundred fifty-six patients with acute severe supratentorial stroke were monitored according to SLSEP, BAEP, and the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) at 1-3 days and 4-7 days after the onset of stroke. All patients were followed up for outcomes at 6 months after onset using the modified Rankin Scale (mRS), with a score of 5-6 considered unfavorable. The predictive values of SLSEP, BAEP, and the GCS at 1-3 days were compared with 4-7 days after onset. Our results show that, according to the analysis of prognostic authenticity, the predictive values of SLSEP and BAEP at 4-7 days after stroke onset improved when compared with the values at 1-3 days for unfavorable outcomes. Most of the patients with change of worsening evoked potentials from 1-3 days to 4-7 days after onset had unfavorable outcomes. In conclusion, SLSEP and BAEP assessed at 4-7 days after onset predicted unfavorable outcomes for acute severe stroke patients. The worsening values of SLSEP and BAEP between 1-3 days and 4-7 days also present a prognostic value.

  2. Impaired High-Density Lipoprotein Anti-Oxidant Function Predicts Poor Outcome in Critically Ill Patients

    PubMed Central

    Schrutka, Lore; Goliasch, Georg; Meyer, Brigitte; Wurm, Raphael; Koller, Lorenz; Kriechbaumer, Lukas; Heinz, Gottfried; Pacher, Richard; Lang, Irene M

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Oxidative stress affects clinical outcome in critically ill patients. Although high-density lipoprotein (HDL) particles generally possess anti-oxidant capacities, deleterious properties of HDL have been described in acutely ill patients. The impact of anti-oxidant HDL capacities on clinical outcome in critically ill patients is unknown. We therefore analyzed the predictive value of anti-oxidant HDL function on mortality in an unselected cohort of critically ill patients. Method We prospectively enrolled 270 consecutive patients admitted to a university-affiliated intensive care unit (ICU) and determined anti-oxidant HDL function using the HDL oxidant index (HOI). Based on their HOI, the study population was stratified into patients with impaired anti-oxidant HDL function and the residual study population. Results During a median follow-up time of 9.8 years (IQR: 9.2 to 10.0), 69% of patients died. Cox regression analysis revealed a significant and independent association between impaired anti-oxidant HDL function and short-term mortality with an adjusted HR of 1.65 (95% CI 1.22–2.24; p = 0.001) as well as 10-year mortality with an adj. HR of 1.19 (95% CI 1.02–1.40; p = 0.032) when compared to the residual study population. Anti-oxidant HDL function correlated with the amount of oxidative stress as determined by Cu/Zn superoxide dismutase (r = 0.38; p<0.001). Conclusion Impaired anti-oxidant HDL function represents a strong and independent predictor of 30-day mortality as well as long-term mortality in critically ill patients. PMID:26978526

  3. SPARC promotes leukemic cell growth and predicts acute myeloid leukemia outcome

    PubMed Central

    Alachkar, Houda; Santhanam, Ramasamy; Maharry, Kati; Metzeler, Klaus H.; Huang, Xiaomeng; Kohlschmidt, Jessica; Mendler, Jason H.; Benito, Juliana M.; Hickey, Christopher; Neviani, Paolo; Dorrance, Adrienne M.; Anghelina, Mirela; Khalife, Jihane; Tarighat, Somayeh S.; Volinia, Stefano; Whitman, Susan P.; Paschka, Peter; Hoellerbauer, Pia; Wu, Yue-Zhong; Han, Lina; Bolon, Brad N.; Blum, William; Mrózek, Krzysztof; Carroll, Andrew J.; Perrotti, Danilo; Andreeff, Michael; Caligiuri, Michael A.; Konopleva, Marina; Garzon, Ramiro; Bloomfield, Clara D.; Marcucci, Guido

    2014-01-01

    Aberrant expression of the secreted protein, acidic, cysteine-rich (osteonectin) (SPARC) gene, which encodes a matricellular protein that participates in normal tissue remodeling, is associated with a variety of diseases including cancer, but the contribution of SPARC to malignant growth remains controversial. We previously reported that SPARC was among the most upregulated genes in cytogenetically normal acute myeloid leukemia (CN-AML) patients with gene-expression profiles predictive of unfavorable outcome, such as mutations in isocitrate dehydrogenase 2 (IDH2-R172) and overexpression of the oncogenes brain and acute leukemia, cytoplasmic (BAALC) and v-ets erythroblastosis virus E26 oncogene homolog (ERG). In contrast, SPARC was downregulated in CN-AML patients harboring mutations in nucleophosmin (NPM1) that are associated with favorable prognosis. Based on these observations, we hypothesized that SPARC expression is clinically relevant in AML. Here, we found that SPARC overexpression is associated with adverse outcome in CN-AML patients and promotes aggressive leukemia growth in murine models of AML. In leukemia cells, SPARC expression was mediated by the SP1/NF-κB transactivation complex. Furthermore, secreted SPARC activated the integrin-linked kinase/AKT (ILK/AKT) pathway, likely via integrin interaction, and subsequent β-catenin signaling, which is involved in leukemia cell self-renewal. Pharmacologic inhibition of the SP1/NF-κB complex resulted in SPARC downregulation and leukemia growth inhibition. Together, our data indicate that evaluation of SPARC expression has prognosticative value and SPARC is a potential therapeutic target for AML. PMID:24590286

  4. Serum Gamma-Glutamyl-Transferase Independently Predicts Outcome After Transarterial Chemoembolization of Hepatocellular Carcinoma: External Validation

    SciTech Connect

    Guiu, Boris Deschamps, Frederic; Boulin, Mathieu; Boige, Valerie; Malka, David; Ducreux, Michel; Hillon, Patrick; Baere, Thierry de

    2012-10-15

    Purpose: An Asian study showed that gamma glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT) can predict survival after transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study was designed to validate in a European population this biomarker as an independent predictor of outcome after TACE of HCC and to determine a threshold value for clinical use. Methods: In 88 consecutive patients treated by TACE for HCC, the optimal threshold for GGT serum level was determined by a ROC analysis. Endpoints were time-to-treatment failure (TTTF) and overall survival (OS). All multivariate models were internally validated using bootstrapping (90 replications). Results: Median follow-up lasted 373 days, and median overall survival was 748 days. The optimal threshold for GGT was 165 U/L (sensitivity: 89.3%; specificity: 56.7%; area under the ROC curve: 0.7515). Median TTTF was shorter when GGT was {>=}165 U/L (281 days vs. 850 days; P < 0.001). GGT {>=}165 U/L (hazard ratio (HR) = 2.06; P = 0.02), WHO PS of 2 (HR = 5.4; P = 0.002), and tumor size (HR = 1.12; P = 0.014) were independently associated with shorter TTTF. Median OS was shorter when GGT was {>=}165 U/L (508 days vs. not reached; P < 0.001). GGT {>=} 165 U/L (HR = 3.05; P = 0.029), WHO PS of 2 (HR = 12.95; P < 0.001), alfa-fetoprotein (HR = 2.9; P = 0.01), and tumor size (HR = 1.096; P = 0.013) were independently associated with shorter OS. The results were confirmed by bootstrapping. Conclusions: Our results provide in a European population the external validation of GGT as an independent predictor of outcome after TACE of HCC. A serum level of GGT {>=} 165 U/L is independently associated with both shorter TTTF and OS.

  5. Evaluation of two treatment outcome prediction models for restoration of visual fields in patients with postchiasmatic visual pathway lesions.

    PubMed

    Gall, Carolin; Steger, Benedikt; Koehler, Juergen; Sabel, Bernhard A

    2013-09-01

    Visual functions of patients with visual field defects after acquired brain injury affecting the primary visual pathway can be improved by means of vision restoration training. Since the extent of the restored visual field varies between patients, the prediction of treatment outcome and its visualization may help patients to decide for or against participating in therapies aimed at vision restoration. For this purpose, two treatment outcome prediction models were established based on either self-organizing maps (SOMs) or categorical regression (CR) to predict visual field change after intervention by several features that were hypothesized to be associated with vision restoration. Prediction was calculated for visual field changes recorded with High Resolution Perimetry (HRP). Both models revealed a similar predictive quality with the CR model being slightly more beneficial. Predictive quality of the SOM model improved when using only a small number of features that exhibited a higher association with treatment outcome than the remaining features, i.e. neighborhood activity and homogeneity within the surrounding 5° visual field of a given position, together with its residual function and distance to the scotoma border. Although both models serve their purpose, these were not able to outperform a primitive prediction rule that attests the importance of areas of residual vision, i.e. regions with partial visual field function, for vision restoration.

  6. Percutaneous ablation therapies of inoperable pancreatic cancer: a systematic review

    PubMed Central

    Ierardi, Anna Maria; Lucchina, Natalie; Bacuzzi, Alessandro; Marco, De Chiara; Bracchi, Elena; Cocozza, Eugenio; Dionigi, Gianlorenzo; Tsetis, Dimitrios; Floridi, Chiara; Carrafiello, Gianpaolo

    2015-01-01

    Initial studies about ablation therapies of the pancreas were associated with significant morbidity and mortality, which limited widespread adoption. Development of techniques with high quality imaging used as guidance improve outcomes reducing complications. Moreover, only few experiences of percutaneous pancreatic ablations are reported. They are performed by very skilled operators in highly specialized centers. This review presents the current status of percutaneous local ablative therapies in the treatment of advanced pancreatic cancer. PMID:26424487

  7. Common Genetic Variants and Response to Atrial Fibrillation Ablation

    PubMed Central

    Shoemaker, M. Benjamin; Bollmann, Andreas; Lubitz, Steven A.; Ueberham, Laura; Saini, Harsimran; Montgomery, Jay; Edwards, Todd; Yoneda, Zachary; Sinner, Moritz F.; Arya, Arash; Sommer, Philipp; Delaney, Jessica; Goyal, Sandeep K.; Saavedra, Pablo; Kanagasundram, Arvindh; Whalen, S. Patrick; Roden, Dan M.; Hindricks, Gerhard; Ellis, Christopher R.; Ellinor, Patrick T.; Darbar, Dawood; Husser, Daniela

    2016-01-01

    Background Common single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at chromosomes 4q25 (rs2200733, rs10033464 near PITX2), 1q21 (rs13376333 in KCNN3), and 16q22 (rs7193343 in ZFHX3) have consistently been associated with the risk of atrial fibrillation (AF). Single-center studies have shown that 4q25 risk alleles predict recurrence of AF after catheter ablation of AF. Here, we performed a meta-analysis to test the hypothesis that these 4 AF susceptibility SNPs modulate response to AF ablation. Methods and Results Patients underwent de novo AF ablation between 2008 and 2012 at Vanderbilt University, the Heart Center Leipzig, and Massachusetts General Hospital. The primary outcome was 12-month recurrence, defined as an episode of AF, atrial flutter, or atrial tachycardia lasting >30 seconds after a 3-month blanking period. Multivariable analysis of the individual cohorts using a Cox proportional hazards model was performed. Summary statistics from the 3 centers were analyzed using fixed effects meta-analysis. A total of 991 patients were included (Vanderbilt University, 245; Heart Center Leipzig, 659; and Massachusetts General Hospital, 87). The overall single procedure 12-month recurrence rate was 42%. The overall risk allele frequency for these SNPs ranged from 12% to 35%. Using a dominant genetic model, the 4q25 SNP, rs2200733, predicted a 1.4-fold increased risk of recurrence (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.3 [95% confidence intervals, 1.1–1.6]; P=0.011). The remaining SNPs, rs10033464 (4q25), rs13376333 (1q21), and rs7193343 (16q22) were not significantly associated with recurrence. Conclusions Among the 3 genetic loci most strongly associated with AF, the chromosome 4q25 SNP rs2200733 is significantly associated with recurrence of atrial arrhythmias after catheter ablation for AF. PMID:25684755

  8. Predicting outcome after traumatic brain injury: development of prognostic scores based on the IMPACT and the APACHE II.

    PubMed

    Raj, Rahul; Siironen, Jari; Kivisaari, Riku; Hernesniemi, Juha; Skrifvars, Markus B

    2014-10-15

    Prediction models are important tools for heterogeneity adjustment in clinical trials and for the evaluation of quality of delivered care to patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI). We sought to improve the predictive performance of the IMPACT (International Mission for Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials) prognostic model by combining it with the APACHE II (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II) for 6-month outcome prediction in patients with TBI treated in the intensive care unit. A total of 890 patients with TBI admitted to a large urban level 1 trauma center in 2009-2012 comprised the study population. The IMPACT and the APACHE II scores were combined using binary logistic regression. A randomized, split-sample technique with secondary bootstrapping was used for model development and internal validation. Model performance was assessed by discrimination (by area under the curve [AUC]), calibration, precision, and net reclassification improvement (NRI). Overall 6-month mortality was 22% and unfavorable neurological outcome 47%. The predictive power of the new combined IMPACT-APACHE II models was significantly superior, compared to the original IMPACT models (AUC, 0.81-0.82 vs. 0.84-0.85; p<0.05) for 6-month mortality prediction, but not for unfavorable outcome prediction (AUC, 0.81-0.82 vs. 0.83; p>0.05). However, NRI showed a significant improvement in risk stratification of patients with unfavorable outcome by the IMPACT-APACHE II models, compared to the original models (NRI, 5.4-23.2%; p<0.05). Internal validation using split-sample and resample bootstrap techniques yielded equivalent results, indicating low grade of overestimation. Our findings show that by combining the APACHE II with the IMPACT, improved 6-month outcome predictive performance is achieved. This may be applicable for heterogeneity adjustment in forthcoming TBI studies.

  9. Clinical Nomogram for Predicting Survival Outcomes in Early Mucinous Breast Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Jiang, Mengjie; Li, Dan; Jiang, Ting; Hong, Zhongwu; Wang, Fan; Li, Shuguang

    2016-01-01

    Background The features related to the prognosis of patients with mucinous breast cancer (MBC) remain controversial. We aimed to explore the prognostic factors of MBC and develop a nomogram for predicting survival outcomes. Methods The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database was searched to identify 139611 women with resectable breast cancer from 1990 to 2007. Survival curves were generated using Kaplan-Meier methods. The 5-year and 10-year cancer-specific survival (CSS) rates were calculated using the Life-Table method. Based on Cox models, a nomogram was constructed to predict the probabilities of CSS for an individual patient. The competing risk regression model was used to analyse the specific survival of patients with MBC. Results There were 136569 (97.82%) infiltrative ductal cancer (IDC) patients and 3042 (2.18%) MBC patients. Patients with MBC had less lymph node involvement, a higher frequency of well-differentiated lesions, and more estrogen receptor (ER)-positive tumors. Patients with MBC had significantly higher 5 and10-year CSS rates (98.23 and 96.03%, respectively) than patients with IDC (91.44 and 85.48%, respectively). Univariate and multivariate analyses showed that MBC was an independent factor for better prognosis. As for patients with MBC, the event of death caused by another disease exceeded the event of death caused by breast cancer. A competing risk regression model further showed that lymph node involvement, poorly differentiated grade and advanced T-classification were independent factors of poor prognosis in patients with MBC. The Nomogram can accurately predict CSS with a high C-index (0.816). Risk scores developed from the nomogram can more accurately predict the prognosis of patients with MBC (C-index = 0.789) than the traditional TNM system (C-index = 0.704, P< 0.001). Conclusions Patients with MBC have a better prognosis than patients with IDC. Nomograms could help clinicians make more informed decisions in

  10. Predictability of the individual clinical outcome of extracorporeal shock wave therapy for cellulite

    PubMed Central

    Schlaudraff, Kai-Uwe; Kiessling, Maren C; Császár, Nikolaus BM; Schmitz, Christoph

    2014-01-01

    Background Extracorporeal shock wave therapy has been successfully introduced for the treatment of cellulite in recent years. However, it is still unknown whether the individual clinical outcome of cellulite treatment with extracorporeal shock wave therapy can be predicted by the patient’s individual cellulite grade at baseline, individual patient age, body mass index (BMI), weight, and/or height. Methods Fourteen Caucasian females with cellulite were enrolled in a prospective, single-center, randomized, open-label Phase II study. The mean (± standard error of the mean) cellulite grade at baseline was 2.5±0.09 and mean BMI was 22.8±1.17. All patients were treated with radial extracorporeal shock waves using the Swiss DolorClast® device (Electro Medical Systems, S.A., Nyon, Switzerland). Patients were treated unilaterally with 2 weekly treatments for 4 weeks on a randomly selected side (left or right), totaling eight treatments on the selected side. Treatment was performed at 3.5–4.0 bar, with 15,000 impulses per session applied at 15 Hz. Impulses were homogeneously distributed over the posterior thigh and buttock area (resulting in 7,500 impulses per area). Treatment success was evaluated after the last treatment and 4 weeks later by clinical examination, photographic documentation, contact thermography, and patient satisfaction questionnaires. Results The mean cellulite grade improved from 2.5±0.09 at baseline to 1.57±0.18 after the last treatment (ie, mean δ-1 was 0.93 cellulite grades) and 1.68±0.16 at follow-up (ie, mean δ-2 was 0.82 cellulite grades). Compared with baseline, no patient’s condition worsened, the treatment was well tolerated, and no unwanted side effects were observed. No statistically significant (ie, P<0.05) correlation was found between individual values for δ-1 and δ-2 and cellulite grade at baseline, BMI, weight, height, or age. Conclusion Radial shock wave therapy is a safe and effective treatment option for cellulite. The

  11. Anti-Phospholipase A2 Receptor Antibody Titer Predicts Post-Rituximab Outcome of Membranous Nephropathy

    PubMed Central

    Ruggenenti, Piero; Debiec, Hanna; Ruggiero, Barbara; Chianca, Antonietta; Pellé, Timothee; Gaspari, Flavio; Suardi, Flavio; Gagliardini, Elena; Orisio, Silvia; Benigni, Ariela; Ronco, Pierre

    2015-01-01

    Rituximab induces nephrotic syndrome (NS) remission in two-thirds of patients with primary membranous nephropathy (MN), even after other treatments have failed. To assess the relationships among treatment effect, circulating nephritogenic anti-phospholipase A2 receptor (anti-PLA2R) autoantibodies and genetic polymorphisms predisposing to antibody production we serially monitored 24-hour proteinuria and antibody titer in patients with primary MN and long-lasting NS consenting to rituximab (375 mg/m2) therapy and genetic analyses. Over a median (range) follow-up of 30.8 (6.0–145.4) months, 84 of 132 rituximab-treated patients achieved complete or partial NS remission (primary end point), and 25 relapsed after remission. Outcomes of patients with or without detectable anti-PLA2R antibodies at baseline were similar. Among the 81 patients with antibodies, lower anti-PLA2R antibody titer at baseline (P=0.001) and full antibody depletion 6 months post-rituximab (hazard ratio [HR], 7.90; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 2.54 to 24.60; P<0.001) strongly predicted remission. All 25 complete remissions were preceded by complete anti-PLA2R antibody depletion. On average, 50% anti-PLA2R titer reduction preceded equivalent proteinuria reduction by 10 months. Re-emergence of circulating antibodies predicted disease relapse (HR, 6.54; 95% CI, 1.57 to 27.40; P=0.01), whereas initial complete remission protected from the event (HR, 6.63; 95% CI, 2.37 to 18.53; P<0.001). Eighteen patients achieved persistent antibody depletion and complete remission and never relapsed. Outcome was independent of PLA2R1 and HLA-DQA1 polymorphisms and of previous immunosuppressive treatment. Therefore, assessing circulating anti-PLA2R autoantibodies and proteinuria may help in monitoring disease activity and guiding personalized rituximab therapy in nephrotic patients with primary MN. PMID:25804280

  12. Machine Learning Approaches for Predicting Radiation Therapy Outcomes: A Clinician's Perspective.

    PubMed

    Kang, John; Schwartz, Russell; Flickinger, John; Beriwal, Sushil

    2015-12-01

    Radiation oncology has always been deeply rooted in modeling, from the early days of isoeffect curves to the contemporary Quantitative Analysis of Normal Tissue Effects in the Clinic (QUANTEC) initiative. In recent years, medical modeling for both prognostic and therapeutic purposes has exploded thanks to increasing availability of electronic data and genomics. One promising direction that medical modeling is moving toward is adopting the same machine learning methods used by companies such as Google and Facebook to combat disease. Broadly defined, machine learning is a branch of computer science that deals with making predictions from complex data through statistical models. These methods serve to uncover patterns in data and are actively used in areas such as speech recognition, handwriting recognition, face recognition, "spam" filtering (junk email), and targeted advertising. Although multiple radiation oncology research groups have shown the value of applied machine learning (ML), clinical adoption has been slow due to the high barrier to understanding these complex models by clinicians. Here, we present a review of the use of ML to predict radiation therapy outcomes from the clinician's point of view with the hope that it lowers the "barrier to entry" for those without formal training in ML. We begin by describing 7 principles that one should consider when evaluating (or creating) an ML model in radiation oncology. We next introduce 3 popular ML methods--logistic regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM), and artificial neural network (ANN)--and critique 3 seminal papers in the context of these principles. Although current studies are in exploratory stages, the overall methodology has progressively matured, and the field is ready for larger-scale further investigation.

  13. Characterizing primary refractory neuroblastoma: prediction of outcome by microscopic image analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Niazi, M. Khalid Khan; Weiser, Daniel A.; Pawel, Bruce R.; Gurcan, Metin N.

    2015-03-01

    Neuroblastoma is a childhood cancer that starts in very early forms of nerve cells found in an embryo or fetus. It is a highly lethal cancer of sympathetic nervous system that commonly affects children of age five or younger. It accounts for a disproportionate number of childhood cancer deaths and remains a difficult cancer to eradicate despite intensive treatment that includes chemotherapy, surgery, hematopoietic stem cell transplantation, radiation therapy and immunotherapy. A poorly characterized group of patients are the 15% with primary refractory neuroblastoma (PRN) which is uniformly lethal due to de novo chemotherapy resistance. The lack of response to therapy is currently assessed after multiple months of cytotoxic therapy, driving the critical need to develop pretreatment clinic-biological biomarkers that can guide precise and effective therapeutic strategies. Therefore, our guiding hypothesis is that PRN has distinct biological features present at diagnosis that can be identified for prediction modeling. During a visual analysis of PRN slides, stained with hematoxylin and eosin, we observed that patients who survived for less than three years contained large eosin-stained structures as compared to those who survived for greater than three years. So, our hypothesis is that the size of eosin stained structures can be used as a differentiating feature to characterize recurrence in neuroblastoma. To test this hypothesis, we developed an image analysis method that performs stain separation, followed by the detection of large structures stained with Eosin. On a set of 21 PRN slides, stained with hematoxylin and eosin, our image analysis method predicted the outcome with 85.7% accuracy.

  14. The multimodal management of GH-secreting pituitary adenomas: predictive factors, strategies and outcomes

    PubMed Central

    Buliman, A; Tataranu, LG; Ciubotaru, V; Cazac, TL; Dumitrache, C

    2016-01-01

    Object. The aim of this study was to analyze a series of 28 patients with acromegaly who underwent a multimodal surgical, medical and radiosurgical therapy, with a special attention to the advantages, complications, and predictive factors of a successful outcome. Methods. 28 consecutive cases of GH-secreting pituitary adenomas, who underwent transsphenoidal endoscopic or microscopic surgery, between 1 January 2014 and 31 December 2014 were retrospectively reviewed. Tumors were classified according to the diameter, measured on MRI, as micro- or macroadenomas, and parasellar (cavernous sinus) tumor extension was analyzed based on the Knosp grading score. The mean follow-up period was of 18.4 months. Criteria justifying the complete hormonal remission were preoperative basal serum GH < 2.5 μg/ L, preoperative nadirGH < 1 ng/ L after OGTT and normal preoperative IGF–I levels age and sex-matched. Results. An overall complete hormonal remission rate was achieved in 64.3% of the patients. The remission rate was higher in patients with microadenomas (77.8%) than in those with macroadenomas (57.9%). A number of predictive factors, which might have interfered with the hormonal remission rate from a statistical, clinical and paraclinical point of view, were identified: tumor size (r = 0.625), preoperative GH serum levels (r = -0.517), cavernous sinus extension was quantified according to Knosp grading score (r = 0.469) and the degree of tumor subtotal resection (r = 0.598). Conclusions. Favorable hormonal and visual remission rates can be achieved after transsphenoidal resection of GH-secreting pituitary adenomas; however, the management remains challenging, the increased surgical experience being important for higher cure rates. If a biochemical hormonal cure is not achieved postoperatively, adjuvant medical or radio surgical therapy can be recommended. PMID:27453753

  15. Distinct patterns of ALDH1A1 expression predict metastasis and poor outcome of colorectal carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Xu, Sen-Lin; Zeng, Dong-Zu; Dong, Wei-Guo; Ding, Yan-Qing; Rao, Jun; Duan, Jiang-Jie; Liu, Qing; Yang, Jing; Zhan, Na; Liu, Ying; Hu, Qi-Ping; Zhang, Xia; Cui, You-Hong; Kung, Hsiang-Fu; Yu, Shi-Cang; Bian, Xiu-Wu

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: Aldehyde dehydrogenase 1A1 (ALDH1A1) has been proposed as a candidate biomarker for colorectal carcinoma (CRC). However, the heterogeneity of its expression makes it difficult to predict the outcome of CRC. The aim of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic and prognostic value of this molecule in CRC. Methods and Results: In this study, we examined ALDH1A1 expression by immunohistochemistry including 406 cases of primary CRC with corresponding adjacent mucosa, with confirmation of real-time PCR and Western blotting. We found that the expression patterns of ALDH1A1 were heterogeneous in the CRC and corresponding adjacent tissues. We defined the ratio of ALDH1A1 level in adjacent mucosa to that in tumor tissues as RA/C and found that the capabilities of tumor invasion and metastasis in the tumors with RA/C < 1 were significantly higher than those with RA/C ≥ 1. Follow-up data showed the worse prognoses in the CRC patients with RA/C < 1. For understanding the underlying mechanism, the localization of β-catenin was detected in the CRC tissues with different patterns of ALDH1A1 expression from 221 patients and β-catenin was found preferentially expressed in cell nuclei of the tumors with RA/C < 1 and ALDH1A1high expression of HT29 cell line, indicating that nuclear translocation of β-catenin might contribute to the increased potentials of invasion and metastasis. Conclusion: Our results indicate that RA/C is a novel biomarker to reflect the distinct expression patterns of ALDH1A1 for predicting metastasis and prognosis of CRC. PMID:25031716

  16. In vitro simulation of pathological bone conditions to predict clinical outcome of bone tissue engineered materials

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nguyen, Duong Thuy Thi

    According to the Centers for Disease Control, the geriatric population of ≥65 years of age will increase to 51.5 million in 2020; 40% of white women and 13% of white men will be at risk for fragility fractures or fractures sustained under normal stress and loading conditions due to bone disease, leading to hospitalization and surgical treatment. Fracture management strategies can be divided into pharmaceutical therapy, surgical intervention, and tissue regeneration for fracture prevention, fracture stabilization, and fracture site regeneration, respectively. However, these strategies fail to accommodate the pathological nature of fragility fractures, leading to unwanted side effects, implant failures, and non-unions. Compromised innate bone healing reactions of patients with bone diseases are exacerbated with protective bone therapy. Once these patients sustain a fracture, bone healing is a challenge, especially when fracture stabilization is unsuccessful. Traditional stabilizing screw and plate systems were designed with emphasis on bone mechanics rather than biology. Bone grafts are often used with fixation devices to provide skeletal continuity at the fracture gap. Current bone grafts inclu