Science.gov

Sample records for abrupt change detection

  1. Detection of abrupt changes in dynamic systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Willsky, A. S.

    1984-01-01

    Some of the basic ideas associated with the detection of abrupt changes in dynamic systems are presented. Multiple filter-based techniques and residual-based method and the multiple model and generalized likelihood ratio methods are considered. Issues such as the effect of unknown onset time on algorithm complexity and structure and robustness to model uncertainty are discussed.

  2. Detecting abrupt dynamic change based on changes in the fractal properties of spatial images

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Qunqun; He, Wenping; Gu, Bin; Jiang, Yundi

    2016-08-01

    Many abrupt climate change events often cannot be detected timely by conventional abrupt detection methods until a few years after these events have occurred. The reason for this lag in detection is that abundant and long-term observational data are required for accurate abrupt change detection by these methods, especially for the detection of a regime shift. So, these methods cannot help us understand and forecast the evolution of the climate system in a timely manner. Obviously, spatial images, generated by a coupled spatiotemporal dynamical model, contain more information about a dynamic system than a single time series, and we find that spatial images show the fractal properties. The fractal properties of spatial images can be quantitatively characterized by the Hurst exponent, which can be estimated by two-dimensional detrended fluctuation analysis (TD-DFA). Based on this, TD-DFA is used to detect an abrupt dynamic change of a coupled spatiotemporal model. The results show that the TD-DFA method can effectively detect abrupt parameter changes in the coupled model by monitoring the changing in the fractal properties of spatial images. The present method provides a new way for abrupt dynamic change detection, which can achieve timely and efficient abrupt change detection results.

  3. Detecting and isolating abrupt changes in linear switching systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nazari, Sohail; Zhao, Qing; Huang, Biao

    2015-04-01

    In this paper, a novel fault detection and isolation (FDI) method for switching linear systems is developed. All input and output signals are assumed to be corrupted with measurement noises. In the proposed method, a 'lifted' linear model named as stochastic hybrid decoupling polynomial (SHDP) is introduced. The SHDP model governs the dynamics of the switching linear system with all different modes, and is independent of the switching sequence. The error-in-variable (EIV) representation of SHDP is derived, and is used for the fault residual generation and isolation following the well-adopted local approach. The proposed FDI method can detect and isolate the fault-induced abrupt changes in switching models' parameters without estimating the switching modes. Furthermore, in this paper, the analytical expressions of the gradient vector and Hessian matrix are obtained based on the EIV SHDP formulation, so that they can be used to implement the online fault detection scheme. The performance of the proposed method is then illustrated by simulation examples.

  4. The applicability of research on moving cut data-approximate entropy on abrupt climate change detection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jin, Hongmei; He, Wenping; Liu, Qunqun; Wang, Jinsong; Feng, Guolin

    2016-04-01

    In this study, the performance of moving cut data-approximate entropy (MC-ApEn) to detect abrupt dynamic changes was investigated. Numerical tests in a time series model indicate that the MC-ApEn method is suitable for the detection of abrupt dynamic changes for three types of meteorological data: daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, and daily precipitation. Additionally, the MC-ApEn method was used to detect abrupt climate changes in daily precipitation data from Northwest China and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index. The results show an abrupt dynamic change in precipitation in 1980 and in the PDO index in 1976. The times indicated for the abrupt changes are identical to those from previous results. Application of the analysis to observational data further confirmed the performance of the MC-ApEn method. Moreover, MC-ApEn outperformed the moving t test (MTT) and the moving detrended fluctuation analysis (MDFA) methods for the detection of abrupt dynamic changes in a simulated 1000-point daily precipitation dataset.

  5. Bayesian analysis to detect abrupt changes in extreme hydrological processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jo, Seongil; Kim, Gwangsu; Jeon, Jong-June

    2016-07-01

    In this study, we develop a new method for a Bayesian change point analysis. The proposed method is easy to implement and can be extended to a wide class of distributions. Using a generalized extreme-value distribution, we investigate the annual maximum of precipitations observed at stations in the South Korean Peninsula, and find significant changes in the considered sites. We evaluate the hydrological risk in predictions using the estimated return levels. In addition, we explain that the misspecification of the probability model can lead to a bias in the number of change points and using a simple example, show that this problem is difficult to avoid by technical data transformation.

  6. A Fast Framework for Abrupt Change Detection Based on Binary Search Trees and Kolmogorov Statistic.

    PubMed

    Qi, Jin-Peng; Qi, Jie; Zhang, Qing

    2016-01-01

    Change-Point (CP) detection has attracted considerable attention in the fields of data mining and statistics; it is very meaningful to discuss how to quickly and efficiently detect abrupt change from large-scale bioelectric signals. Currently, most of the existing methods, like Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) statistic and so forth, are time-consuming, especially for large-scale datasets. In this paper, we propose a fast framework for abrupt change detection based on binary search trees (BSTs) and a modified KS statistic, named BSTKS (binary search trees and Kolmogorov statistic). In this method, first, two binary search trees, termed as BSTcA and BSTcD, are constructed by multilevel Haar Wavelet Transform (HWT); second, three search criteria are introduced in terms of the statistic and variance fluctuations in the diagnosed time series; last, an optimal search path is detected from the root to leaf nodes of two BSTs. The studies on both the synthetic time series samples and the real electroencephalograph (EEG) recordings indicate that the proposed BSTKS can detect abrupt change more quickly and efficiently than KS, t-statistic (t), and Singular-Spectrum Analyses (SSA) methods, with the shortest computation time, the highest hit rate, the smallest error, and the highest accuracy out of four methods. This study suggests that the proposed BSTKS is very helpful for useful information inspection on all kinds of bioelectric time series signals. PMID:27413364

  7. A Fast Framework for Abrupt Change Detection Based on Binary Search Trees and Kolmogorov Statistic

    PubMed Central

    Qi, Jin-Peng; Qi, Jie; Zhang, Qing

    2016-01-01

    Change-Point (CP) detection has attracted considerable attention in the fields of data mining and statistics; it is very meaningful to discuss how to quickly and efficiently detect abrupt change from large-scale bioelectric signals. Currently, most of the existing methods, like Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) statistic and so forth, are time-consuming, especially for large-scale datasets. In this paper, we propose a fast framework for abrupt change detection based on binary search trees (BSTs) and a modified KS statistic, named BSTKS (binary search trees and Kolmogorov statistic). In this method, first, two binary search trees, termed as BSTcA and BSTcD, are constructed by multilevel Haar Wavelet Transform (HWT); second, three search criteria are introduced in terms of the statistic and variance fluctuations in the diagnosed time series; last, an optimal search path is detected from the root to leaf nodes of two BSTs. The studies on both the synthetic time series samples and the real electroencephalograph (EEG) recordings indicate that the proposed BSTKS can detect abrupt change more quickly and efficiently than KS, t-statistic (t), and Singular-Spectrum Analyses (SSA) methods, with the shortest computation time, the highest hit rate, the smallest error, and the highest accuracy out of four methods. This study suggests that the proposed BSTKS is very helpful for useful information inspection on all kinds of bioelectric time series signals. PMID:27413364

  8. A Fast Framework for Abrupt Change Detection Based on Binary Search Trees and Kolmogorov Statistic.

    PubMed

    Qi, Jin-Peng; Qi, Jie; Zhang, Qing

    2016-01-01

    Change-Point (CP) detection has attracted considerable attention in the fields of data mining and statistics; it is very meaningful to discuss how to quickly and efficiently detect abrupt change from large-scale bioelectric signals. Currently, most of the existing methods, like Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) statistic and so forth, are time-consuming, especially for large-scale datasets. In this paper, we propose a fast framework for abrupt change detection based on binary search trees (BSTs) and a modified KS statistic, named BSTKS (binary search trees and Kolmogorov statistic). In this method, first, two binary search trees, termed as BSTcA and BSTcD, are constructed by multilevel Haar Wavelet Transform (HWT); second, three search criteria are introduced in terms of the statistic and variance fluctuations in the diagnosed time series; last, an optimal search path is detected from the root to leaf nodes of two BSTs. The studies on both the synthetic time series samples and the real electroencephalograph (EEG) recordings indicate that the proposed BSTKS can detect abrupt change more quickly and efficiently than KS, t-statistic (t), and Singular-Spectrum Analyses (SSA) methods, with the shortest computation time, the highest hit rate, the smallest error, and the highest accuracy out of four methods. This study suggests that the proposed BSTKS is very helpful for useful information inspection on all kinds of bioelectric time series signals.

  9. Automated detection of sperm whale sounds as a function of abrupt changes in sound intensity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walker, Christopher D.; Rayborn, Grayson H.; Brack, Benjamin A.; Kuczaj, Stan A.; Paulos, Robin L.

    2003-04-01

    An algorithm designed to detect abrupt changes in sound intensity was developed and used to identify and count sperm whale vocalizations and to measure boat noise. The algorithm is a MATLAB routine that counts the number of occurrences for which the change in intensity level exceeds a threshold. The algorithm also permits the setting of a ``dead time'' interval to prevent the counting of multiple pulses within a single sperm whale click. This algorithm was used to analyze digitally sampled recordings of ambient noise obtained from the Gulf of Mexico using near bottom mounted EARS buoys deployed as part of the Littoral Acoustic Demonstration Center experiment. Because the background in these data varied slowly, the result of the application of the algorithm was automated detection of sperm whale clicks and creaks with results that agreed well with those obtained by trained human listeners. [Research supported by ONR.

  10. A novel method for detecting abrupt dynamic change based on the changing Hurst exponent of spatial images

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Wen-Ping; Liu, Qun-Qun; Gu, Bin; Zhao, Shan-Shan

    2016-10-01

    The climate system is a classical spatiotemporal evolutionary dynamic system with spatiotemporal correlation characteristics. Based on this, two-dimensional detrended fluctuation analysis (TD-DFA) is used to estimate the Hurst exponent of two-dimensional images. Then, we monitored the change of the Hurst exponent of the images to identify an abrupt dynamic change. We tested the performance of this method with a coupled spatiotemporal dynamic model and found that it works well. The changes in the Hurst exponents of the spatial images are stable when there is no dynamic change in the system, but there will be a clear non-stationary change of the Hurst exponents; for example, the abrupt mean values change if the dynamics of the system change. Thus, the TD-DFA method is suitable for detecting an abrupt dynamic change from natural and artificial images. The spatial images of the NCEP reanalysis of the daily average temperature exhibited fractality. Based on this, we found three non-stationary changes in the Hurst exponents for the NCEP reanalysis of the daily average temperature or for the annual average temperature in the region (60°S-60°N). It can be concluded that the climate system may have incurred three dynamic changes since 1961 on decadal timescales, i.e., in approximately the mid-1970s, the mid-1980s, and between the late 1990s and the early 2000s.

  11. A comparison of two methods for detecting abrupt changes in the variance of climatic time series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodionov, Sergei N.

    2016-06-01

    Two methods for detecting abrupt shifts in the variance - Integrated Cumulative Sum of Squares (ICSS) and Sequential Regime Shift Detector (SRSD) - have been compared on both synthetic and observed time series. In Monte Carlo experiments, SRSD outperformed ICSS in the overwhelming majority of the modeled scenarios with different sequences of variance regimes. The SRSD advantage was particularly apparent in the case of outliers in the series. On the other hand, SRSD has more parameters to adjust than ICSS, which requires more experience from the user in order to select those parameters properly. Therefore, ICSS can serve as a good starting point of a regime shift analysis. When tested on climatic time series, in most cases both methods detected the same change points in the longer series (252-787 monthly values). The only exception was the Arctic Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) series, when ICSS found one extra change point that appeared to be spurious. As for the shorter time series (66-136 yearly values), ICSS failed to detect any change points even when the variance doubled or tripled from one regime to another. For these time series, SRSD is recommended. Interestingly, all the climatic time series tested, from the Arctic to the tropics, had one thing in common: the last shift detected in each of these series was toward a high-variance regime. This is consistent with other findings of increased climate variability in recent decades.

  12. Abrupt change point detection of annual maximum precipitation using fused lasso

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jeon, Jong-June; Sung, Jang Hyun; Chung, Eun-Sung

    2016-07-01

    Because the widely used Bayesian change point analysis (BCPA) is generally applied to the normal distribution, it cannot be freely used to the annual maximum precipitations (AMP) in South Korea. Therefore, this study proposed the fused lasso penalty function to detect the change point of AMP which can be generally fitted by using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution in South Korea. First, four numerical experiments are conducted to compare the detection performances between BCPA and fused lasso method. As a result, fused lasso shows the superiority of the data generated by GEV distribution having skewness. The fused lasso method is applied to 63 weather stations in South Korea and then 17 stations having any change points from BCPA and the GEV fused lasso are analyzed. Similar to the numerical analyses, the GEV fused lasso method can delicately detect the change point of AMPs. After the change point, the means of AMPs did not go back to the previous. Alternately, BCPA can be stated to find variation points not change points because the means returned to their original values as time progressed. Therefore, it can be concluded that the GEV fused lasso method detects the change points of non-stationary AMPs of South Korea. This study can be extended to more extreme distributions for various meteorological variables.

  13. Can ice sheets trigger abrupt climatic change?

    SciTech Connect

    Hughes, T.

    1996-11-01

    The discovery in recent years of abrupt climatic changes in climate proxy records from Greenland ice cores and North Atlantic sediment cores, and from other sites around the world, has diverted attention from gradual insolation changes caused by Earth`s orbital variations to more rapid processes on Earth`s surface as forcing Quaternary climatic change. In particular, forcing by ice sheets has been quantified for a major ice stream that drained the Laurentide Ice Sheet along Hudson Strait. The history of these recent discoveries leading to an interest in ice sheets is reviewed, and a case is made that ice sheets may drive abrupt climatic change that is virtually synchronous worldwide. Attention is focused on abrupt inception and termination of a Quaternary glaciation cycle, abrupt changes recorded as stadials and interstadials within the cycle, abrupt changes in ice streams that trigger stadials and interstadials, and abrupt changes in the Laurentide Ice Sheet linked to effectively simultaneous abrupt changes in its ice streams. Remaining work needed to quantify further these changes is discussed. 90 refs., 14 figs.

  14. The economics of abrupt climate change.

    PubMed

    Perrings, Charles

    2003-09-15

    The US National Research Council defines abrupt climate change as a change of state that is sufficiently rapid and sufficiently widespread in its effects that economies are unprepared or incapable of adapting. This may be too restrictive a definition, but abrupt climate change does have implications for the choice between the main response options: mitigation (which reduces the risks of climate change) and adaptation (which reduces the costs of climate change). The paper argues that by (i) increasing the costs of change and the potential growth of consumption, and (ii) reducing the time to change, abrupt climate change favours mitigation over adaptation. Furthermore, because the implications of change are fundamentally uncertain and potentially very high, it favours a precautionary approach in which mitigation buys time for learning. Adaptation-oriented decision tools, such as scenario planning, are inappropriate in these circumstances. Hence learning implies the use of probabilistic models that include socioeconomic feedbacks.

  15. Abrupt climate change and extinction events

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crowley, Thomas J.

    1988-01-01

    There is a growing body of theoretical and empirical support for the concept of instabilities in the climate system, and indications that abrupt climate change may in some cases contribute to abrupt extinctions. Theoretical indications of instabilities can be found in a broad spectrum of climate models (energy balance models, a thermohaline model of deep-water circulation, atmospheric general circulation models, and coupled ocean-atmosphere models). Abrupt transitions can be of several types and affect the environment in different ways. There is increasing evidence for abrupt climate change in the geologic record and involves both interglacial-glacial scale transitions and the longer-term evolution of climate over the last 100 million years. Records from the Cenozoic clearly show that the long-term trend is characterized by numerous abrupt steps where the system appears to be rapidly moving to a new equilibrium state. The long-term trend probably is due to changes associated with plate tectonic processes, but the abrupt steps most likely reflect instabilities in the climate system as the slowly changing boundary conditions caused the climate to reach some threshold critical point. A more detailed analysis of abrupt steps comes from high-resolution studies of glacial-interglacial fluctuations in the Pleistocene. Comparison of climate transitions with the extinction record indicates that many climate and biotic transitions coincide. The Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction is not a candidate for an extinction event due to instabilities in the climate system. It is quite possible that more detailed comparisons and analysis will indicate some flaws in the climate instability-extinction hypothesis, but at present it appears to be a viable candidate as an alternate mechanism for causing abrupt environmental changes and extinctions.

  16. Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating Surprises

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    White, James W. C.; Alley, Richard B.; Archer, David E.; Barnosky, Anthony D.; Dunlea, Edward; Foley, Jonathan; Fu, Rong; Holland, Marika M.; Lozier, M. Susan; Schmitt, Johanna; Smith, Laurence C.; Sugihara, George; Thompson, David W. J.; Weaver, Andrew J.; Wofsy, Steven C.

    2014-05-01

    Levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in Earth's atmosphere are exceeding levels recorded in the past millions of years, and thus climate is being forced beyond the range of the recent geological era. Lacking concerted action by the world's nations, it is clear that the future climate will be warmer, sea levels will rise, global rainfall patterns will change, and ecosystems will be altered. However, there is still uncertainty about how we will arrive at that future climate state. Although many projections of future climatic conditions have predicted steadily changing conditions giving the impression that communities have time to gradually adapt, the scientific community has been paying increasing attention to the possibility that at least some changes will be abrupt, perhaps crossing a threshold or "tipping point" to change so quickly that there will be little time to react. This presentation will synopsize the new US National Research Council Report, Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating Surprises, highlighting areas of increased and decreased concern, as well as areas of new concern. Emphasis is placed on not only abrupt change in physical climate, but on abrupt changes in human and natural systems that can occur as a result of a slowly changing climate. The report calls for action now on an abrupt change early warning system (ACEWS) if societies are to be resilient to climate change.

  17. Monsoon abrupt change and its dominant factors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yao, Qiang; Fu, Conbin

    2010-05-01

    Abrupt changes of monsoon are apparent in the geological record of climate over various timescales. During Holocene and last glacial period, rainfall in India and China has undergone strong and abrupt changes. In this context, we regard monsoon as dissipative system, which has many characteristic times, to contrive various factors and corresponding mechanism dominated in monsoon's abrupt change. The abrupt change of monsoon over inter-decadal to century timescales may be resulting from different fluctuation's competition, which impose on the inner basic physic processes. In order to find out the key factors which control the monsoon's abrupt change, starting from the seminar works by Leith, who proposed to employ the Fluctuation-dissipation Response theory(FDR) to study the response of climatic systems to changes in the external forcing, many authors applied this relation to different geophysical problems, ranging from simplified models to general circulation models and to the covariance of satellite radiance spectra. The FDR has been originally developed in the framework of statistical mechanics of Hamiltonian systems, nevertheless a generalized FDR holds under rather general hypotheses, regardless of the Hamiltonian, or equilibrium nature of the system. Our work verify the FDR theory' applicability in monsoon systems, which demonstrates that it can reveal clear and fundamental factors that control monsoon's abrupt change. By making use of FDR theory, combined with observational data analysis, we have already seen how monsoon systems with many characteristics times, different correlation functions behave differently and a variety of timescales emerges, which correspond to the different decay times of the correlation functions. Via theoretical and data analysis, it is suggested that each monsoon system has experienced several significant abrupt changes in 20th century. The global main monsoon rainfall has undergone an obvious abrupt jump in the mid- and late 1970s

  18. Abrupt climate change: can society cope?

    PubMed

    Hulme, Mike

    2003-09-15

    Consideration of abrupt climate change has generally been incorporated neither in analyses of climate-change impacts nor in the design of climate adaptation strategies. Yet the possibility of abrupt climate change triggered by human perturbation of the climate system is used to support the position of both those who urge stronger and earlier mitigative action than is currently being contemplated and those who argue that the unknowns in the Earth system are too large to justify such early action. This paper explores the question of abrupt climate change in terms of its potential implications for society, focusing on the UK and northwest Europe in particular. The nature of abrupt climate change and the different ways in which it has been defined and perceived are examined. Using the example of the collapse of the thermohaline circulation (THC), the suggested implications for society of abrupt climate change are reviewed; previous work has been largely speculative and has generally considered the implications only from economic and ecological perspectives. Some observations about the implications from a more social and behavioural science perspective are made. If abrupt climate change simply implies changes in the occurrence or intensity of extreme weather events, or an accelerated unidirectional change in climate, the design of adaptation to climate change can proceed within the existing paradigm, with appropriate adjustments. Limits to adaptation in some sectors or regions may be reached, and the costs of appropriate adaptive behaviour may be large, but strategy can develop on the basis of a predicted long-term unidirectional change in climate. It would be more challenging, however, if abrupt climate change implied a directional change in climate, as, for example, may well occur in northwest Europe following a collapse of the THC. There are two fundamental problems for society associated with such an outcome: first, the future changes in climate currently being

  19. Abrupt climate change: can society cope?

    PubMed

    Hulme, Mike

    2003-09-15

    Consideration of abrupt climate change has generally been incorporated neither in analyses of climate-change impacts nor in the design of climate adaptation strategies. Yet the possibility of abrupt climate change triggered by human perturbation of the climate system is used to support the position of both those who urge stronger and earlier mitigative action than is currently being contemplated and those who argue that the unknowns in the Earth system are too large to justify such early action. This paper explores the question of abrupt climate change in terms of its potential implications for society, focusing on the UK and northwest Europe in particular. The nature of abrupt climate change and the different ways in which it has been defined and perceived are examined. Using the example of the collapse of the thermohaline circulation (THC), the suggested implications for society of abrupt climate change are reviewed; previous work has been largely speculative and has generally considered the implications only from economic and ecological perspectives. Some observations about the implications from a more social and behavioural science perspective are made. If abrupt climate change simply implies changes in the occurrence or intensity of extreme weather events, or an accelerated unidirectional change in climate, the design of adaptation to climate change can proceed within the existing paradigm, with appropriate adjustments. Limits to adaptation in some sectors or regions may be reached, and the costs of appropriate adaptive behaviour may be large, but strategy can develop on the basis of a predicted long-term unidirectional change in climate. It would be more challenging, however, if abrupt climate change implied a directional change in climate, as, for example, may well occur in northwest Europe following a collapse of the THC. There are two fundamental problems for society associated with such an outcome: first, the future changes in climate currently being

  20. Abrupt tropical climate change: Past and present

    PubMed Central

    Thompson, Lonnie G.; Mosley-Thompson, Ellen; Brecher, Henry; Davis, Mary; León, Blanca; Les, Don; Lin, Ping-Nan; Mashiotta, Tracy; Mountain, Keith

    2006-01-01

    Three lines of evidence for abrupt tropical climate change, both past and present, are presented. First, annually and decadally averaged δ18O and net mass-balance histories for the last 400 and 2,000 yr, respectively, demonstrate that the current warming at high elevations in the mid- to low latitudes is unprecedented for at least the last 2 millennia. Second, the continuing retreat of most mid- to low-latitude glaciers, many having persisted for thousands of years, signals a recent and abrupt change in the Earth’s climate system. Finally, rooted, soft-bodied wetland plants, now exposed along the margins as the Quelccaya ice cap (Peru) retreats, have been radiocarbon dated and, when coupled with other widespread proxy evidence, provide strong evidence for an abrupt mid-Holocene climate event that marked the transition from early Holocene (pre-5,000-yr-B.P.) conditions to cooler, late Holocene (post-5,000-yr-B.P.) conditions. This abrupt event, ≈5,200 yr ago, was widespread and spatially coherent through much of the tropics and was coincident with structural changes in several civilizations. These three lines of evidence argue that the present warming and associated glacier retreat are unprecedented in some areas for at least 5,200 yr. The ongoing global-scale, rapid retreat of mountain glaciers is not only contributing to global sea-level rise but also threatening freshwater supplies in many of the world’s most populous regions. PMID:16815970

  1. Abrupt tropical climate change: past and present.

    PubMed

    Thompson, Lonnie G; Mosley-Thompson, Ellen; Brecher, Henry; Davis, Mary; León, Blanca; Les, Don; Lin, Ping-Nan; Mashiotta, Tracy; Mountain, Keith

    2006-07-11

    Three lines of evidence for abrupt tropical climate change, both past and present, are presented. First, annually and decadally averaged delta(18)O and net mass-balance histories for the last 400 and 2,000 yr, respectively, demonstrate that the current warming at high elevations in the mid- to low latitudes is unprecedented for at least the last 2 millennia. Second, the continuing retreat of most mid- to low-latitude glaciers, many having persisted for thousands of years, signals a recent and abrupt change in the Earth's climate system. Finally, rooted, soft-bodied wetland plants, now exposed along the margins as the Quelccaya ice cap (Peru) retreats, have been radiocarbon dated and, when coupled with other widespread proxy evidence, provide strong evidence for an abrupt mid-Holocene climate event that marked the transition from early Holocene (pre-5,000-yr-B.P.) conditions to cooler, late Holocene (post-5,000-yr-B.P.) conditions. This abrupt event, approximately 5,200 yr ago, was widespread and spatially coherent through much of the tropics and was coincident with structural changes in several civilizations. These three lines of evidence argue that the present warming and associated glacier retreat are unprecedented in some areas for at least 5,200 yr. The ongoing global-scale, rapid retreat of mountain glaciers is not only contributing to global sea-level rise but also threatening freshwater supplies in many of the world's most populous regions.

  2. Abrupt climate change: Mechanisms, patterns, and impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schultz, Colin

    2012-08-01

    In the span of only a few decades, the global temperature can soar by more than a dozen degrees Celsius, a feat that 20 years ago was considered improbable, if not impossible. But recent research in the nascent field of rapid climate change has upended the dominant views of decades past. Focusing primarily on events during and after the most recent glaciation, from 80,000 years ago, the AGU monograph Abrupt Climate Change: Mechanisms, Patterns, and Impacts, edited by Harunur Rashid, Leonid Polyak, and Ellen Mosley-Thompson, explores the transient climate transitions that were only recently uncovered in climate proxies around the world. In this interview, Eos talks to Harunur Rashid about piecing together ancient climes, the effect of abrupt change on historical civilizations, and why younger researchers may be more worried about modern warming than their teachers.

  3. Abrupt climate-independent fire regime changes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pausas, Juli G.; Keeley, Jon E.

    2014-01-01

    Wildfires have played a determining role in distribution, composition and structure of many ecosystems worldwide and climatic changes are widely considered to be a major driver of future fire regime changes. However, forecasting future climatic change induced impacts on fire regimes will require a clearer understanding of other drivers of abrupt fire regime changes. Here, we focus on evidence from different environmental and temporal settings of fire regimes changes that are not directly attributed to climatic changes. We review key cases of these abrupt fire regime changes at different spatial and temporal scales, including those directly driven (i) by fauna, (ii) by invasive plant species, and (iii) by socio-economic and policy changes. All these drivers might generate non-linear effects of landscape changes in fuel structure; that is, they generate fuel changes that can cross thresholds of landscape continuity, and thus drastically change fire activity. Although climatic changes might contribute to some of these changes, there are also many instances that are not primarily linked to climatic shifts. Understanding the mechanism driving fire regime changes should contribute to our ability to better assess future fire regimes.

  4. Abrupt changes in rainfall during the twentieth century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Narisma, G.; Foley, J.; Licker, R.; Ramankutty, N.

    2007-12-01

    A sudden change in climate is brought about by complex interactions in the climate system, including interactions between land and atmosphere, that can give rise to strong positive feedback mechanisms. Paleoclimatic studies have shown that abrupt climate changes have happened in the geologic past. Studies of future climate change under global warming scenarios indicate the possibility of the sudden collapse of the thermohaline circulation, which will have major implications for the climate of Europe. However, abrupt climatic changes are not events of the geologic past or a computer-simulated future: they have occurred in recent history and have had serious consequences on society and the environment. The prolonged Sahel drought in the late 1960s and the Dust Bowl of the 1930s are examples of abrupt climatic changes of the twentieth century. Apart from these events, however, there has been no systematic survey of recent climate history to determine the prevalence of abrupt climatic changes. Given the potential cost of these abrupt changes, there is a need to investigate historical records for evidence of other sudden climatic changes in the more recent past. Here we analyze the Climate Research Unit global historical rainfall observations (covering the years 1901-2000) using wavelet analysis to detect regions that have undergone large, sudden decreases in rainfall. We show that in the twentieth century, aside from the Sahel and the US midwest, at least 30 regions in the world have experienced sudden climatic changes. These events are statistically significant at the 99 percent level, are persistent for at least ten years, and most have magnitudes of change that are 10 percent lower than the climatological normal (1901-2000 rainfall average). We also illustrate some of the potential consequences of these abrupt changes and show that these events had major impacts on social and environmental conditions. Interestingly, these regions of abrupt precipitation changes are

  5. Approaching the Edge of Abrupt Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramadhin, C.; Yi, C.

    2015-12-01

    The phenomenon of Abrupt Climate Change (ACC) became evident as paleoclimate data analyses began revealing that Earth's climate has the ability to rapidly switch from one state to the next in just a few decades after thresholds are crossed. Previously paleo-climatologists thought these switches were gradual but now there is growing concern to identify thresholds and the dominant feedback mechanisms that propel systems toward thresholds. Current human civilization relies heavily on climate stability and ACC threatens immense disruption with potentially disastrous consequences for all ecosystems. Therefore, prediction of the climate system's approach to threshold values would prove vital for the resilience of civilization through development of appropriate adaptation strategies when that shift occurs. Numerous studies now establish that earth systems are experiencing dramatic changes both by system interactions and anthropogenic sources adding urgency for comprehensive knowledge of tipping point identification. Despite this, predictions are difficult due to the immensity of interactions among feedback mechanisms. In this paper, we attempt to narrow this broad spectrum of critical feedback mechanisms by reviewing several publications on role of feedbacks in initiating past climate transitions establishing the most critical ones and significance in current climate changes. Using a compilation of paleoclimate datasets we compared the rates of deglaciations with that of glacial inceptions, which are approximately 5-10 times slower. We hypothesize that the critical feedbacks are unique to each type of transition such that warmings are dominated by the ice-albedo feedback while coolings are a combination of temperature - CO2 and temperature-precipitation followed by the ice-albedo feedbacks. Additionally, we propose the existence of a commonality in the dominant trigger feedbacks for astronomical and millennial timescale abrupt climate shifts and as such future studies

  6. The Arctic Grand Challenge: Abrupt Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilkniss, P. E.

    2003-12-01

    Trouble in polar paradise (Science, 08/30/02), significant changes in the Arctic environment are scientifically documented (R.E. Moritz et al. ibid.). More trouble, lots more, "abrupt climate change," (R. B. Alley, et al. Science 03/28/03). R. Corell, Arctic Climate Impact Assessment team (ACIA), "If you want to see what will happen in the rest of the world 25 years from now just look what's happening in the Arctic," (Arctic Council meeting, Iceland, 08/03). What to do? Make abrupt Arctic climate change a grand challenge for the IPY-4 and beyond! Scientifically:Describe the "state" of the Arctic climate system as succinctly as possible and accept it as the point of departure.Develop a hypothesis and criteria what constitutes "abrupt climate change," in the Arctic that can be tested with observations. Observations: Bring to bear existing observations and coordinate new investments in observations through an IPY-4 scientific management committee. Make the new Barrow, Alaska, Global Climate Change Research Facility a major U.S. contribution and focal point for the IPY-4 in the U.S Arctic. Arctic populations, Native peoples: The people of the North are living already, daily, with wrenching change, encroaching on their habitats and cultures. For them "the earth is faster now," (I. Krupnik and D. Jolly, ARCUS, 2002). From a political, economic, social and entirely realistic perspective, an Arctic grand challenge without the total integration of the Native peoples in this effort cannot succeed. Therefore: Communications must be established, and the respective Native entities must be approached with the determination to create well founded, well functioning, enduring partnerships. In the U.S. Arctic, Barrow with its long history of involvement and active support of science and with the new global climate change research facility should be the focal point of choice Private industry: Resource extraction in the Arctic followed by oil and gas consumption, return the combustion

  7. Detecting gradual and abrupt changes in water quality time series in response to regional payment programs for watershed services in an agricultural area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Tian; Lu, Yan; Cui, Yanping; Luo, Yabo; Wang, Min; Meng, Wei; Zhang, Kaijie; Zhao, Feifei

    2015-06-01

    Market-based watershed protection instruments can effectively improve water quality at various catchment scales. Two payments for watershed services (PWS) programs for water quality improvement have been successively implemented in the Huai River catchment and its sub-watershed, the Shaying River catchment, in Henan Province since 2009. To detect changes in water quality in response to PWS schemes, nonparametric statistical approaches were used to analyze gradual and abrupt trends in water quality, focusing on chemical oxygen demand (COD) and ammonia-nitrogen (NH3-N) at 26 monitoring stations in the Huai River watershed during 2006-2013. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and the Theil-Sen estimator were used to identify trends and their magnitudes in weekly water quality observations and the Pettitt test was applied to change-point analysis of water quality time series. We found decreasing concentration trends in the weekly water quality data set in this catchment, with water quality at most stations affected by the PWS schemes. The COD and NH3-N concentrations decreased at 26 stations by an average of 0.05 mg/L wk and 0.01 mg/L wk, respectively, from 2006 to 2013. Meanwhile, the mean concentrations of COD and NH3-N decreased at the 26 stations by an average of 18.03 mg/L and 4.82 mg/L, respectively, after the abrupt change points of the time-series trends of these two pollutants. We also estimated annual reductions in COD and NH3-N for each station based on average flow observations using the Theil-Sen approach along with the resulting economic benefits from 2009 to 2010. The COD and NH3-N reductions were 14604.50 and 6213.25 t/y, respectively, in the Huai River catchment in Henan Province. The total economic benefits of reductions in these two pollutants were 769.71 million ¥ in 2009 and 2010, accounting for 0.08% and 0.06%, respectively, of the GDP in the entire Huai River watershed of Henan Province. These results provide new insights into the linkages

  8. Abrupt climate change in the computer: Is it real?

    PubMed Central

    Stocker, Thomas F.; Marchal, Olivier

    2000-01-01

    Models suggest that dramatic changes in the ocean circulation are responsible for abrupt climate changes during the last ice age and may possibly alter the relative climate stability of the last 10,000 years. PMID:10677468

  9. The Role of the Tropics in Abrupt Climate Changes

    SciTech Connect

    Fedorov, Alexey

    2013-12-07

    Topics addressed include: abrupt climate changes and ocean circulation in the tropics; what controls the ocean thermal structure in the tropics; a permanent El Niño in paleoclimates; the energetics of the tropical ocean.

  10. International policy implications of abrupt climate change scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Molitor, M.R.

    1997-12-31

    New theoretical and empirical evidence supports the view that in the recent past [Holocene] abrupt climate changes occurred over very short [decadal] time periods. One leading possibility of future changes involves the North Atlantic Ocean conveyor that transfers warm surface waters from the equator to northern latitudes and helps maintain Europe`s climate. The predicted abrupt climate change scenario theorizes that the conveyor may be modified as a result of disruption of the thermohaline circulation driving North, Atlantic Deep Water. This would lead, the theory contends, to a rapid cooling of Europe`s climate. In light of the EPCC`s 1995 Second Assessment Report conclusion that there is a {open_quotes}discernible{close_quotes} human influence on the global climate system, there are many emerging questions concerning possible abrupt climate change scenarios.

  11. Sea-ice switches and abrupt climate change.

    PubMed

    Gildor, Hezi; Tziperman, Eli

    2003-09-15

    We propose that past abrupt climate changes were probably a result of rapid and extensive variations in sea-ice cover. We explain why this seems a perhaps more likely explanation than a purely thermohaline circulation mechanism. We emphasize that because of the significant influence of sea ice on the climate system, it seems that high priority should be given to developing ways for reconstructing high-resolution (in space and time) sea-ice extent for past climate-change events. If proxy data can confirm that sea ice was indeed the major player in past abrupt climate-change events, it seems less likely that such dramatic abrupt changes will occur due to global warming, when extensive sea-ice cover will not be present.

  12. Sea-ice switches and abrupt climate change.

    PubMed

    Gildor, Hezi; Tziperman, Eli

    2003-09-15

    We propose that past abrupt climate changes were probably a result of rapid and extensive variations in sea-ice cover. We explain why this seems a perhaps more likely explanation than a purely thermohaline circulation mechanism. We emphasize that because of the significant influence of sea ice on the climate system, it seems that high priority should be given to developing ways for reconstructing high-resolution (in space and time) sea-ice extent for past climate-change events. If proxy data can confirm that sea ice was indeed the major player in past abrupt climate-change events, it seems less likely that such dramatic abrupt changes will occur due to global warming, when extensive sea-ice cover will not be present. PMID:14558902

  13. Abrupt climate change and thermohaline circulation: mechanisms and predictability.

    PubMed

    Marotzke, J

    2000-02-15

    The ocean's thermohaline circulation has long been recognized as potentially unstable and has consequently been invoked as a potential cause of abrupt climate change on all timescales of decades and longer. However, fundamental aspects of thermohaline circulation changes remain poorly understood.

  14. Abrupt climate change and thermohaline circulation: mechanisms and predictability.

    PubMed

    Marotzke, J

    2000-02-15

    The ocean's thermohaline circulation has long been recognized as potentially unstable and has consequently been invoked as a potential cause of abrupt climate change on all timescales of decades and longer. However, fundamental aspects of thermohaline circulation changes remain poorly understood. PMID:10677464

  15. Abrupt changes in the dynamics of quantum disentanglement

    SciTech Connect

    Lastra, F.; Romero, G.; Lopez, C. E.; Retamal, J. C.; Franca Santos, M.

    2007-06-15

    The evolution of the lower bound of entanglement proposed by Chen et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 95, 210501 (2005)] in high-dimensional bipartite systems under dissipation is studied. Discontinuities for the time derivative of this bound are found depending on the initial conditions for entangled states. These abrupt changes along the evolution of the entanglement bound appear as precursors of sudden death.

  16. Mechanisms of abrupt climate change of the last glacial period

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clement, Amy C.; Peterson, Larry C.

    2008-12-01

    More than a decade ago, ice core records from Greenland revealed that the last glacial period was characterized by abrupt climate changes that recurred on millennial time scales. Since their discovery, there has been a large effort to determine whether these climate events were a global phenomenon or were just confined to the North Atlantic region and also to reveal the mechanisms that were responsible for them. In this paper, we review the available paleoclimate observations of abrupt change during the last glacial period in order to place constraints on possible mechanisms. Three different mechanisms are then reviewed: ocean thermohaline circulation, sea ice feedbacks, and tropical processes. Each mechanism is tested for its ability to explain the key features of the observations, particularly with regard to the abruptness, millennial recurrence, and geographical extent of the observed changes. It is found that each of these mechanisms has explanatory strengths and weaknesses, and key areas in which progress could be made in improving the understanding of their long-term behavior, both from observational and modeling approaches, are suggested. Finally, it is proposed that a complete understanding of the mechanisms of abrupt change requires inclusion of processes at both low and high latitudes, as well as the potential for feedbacks between them. Some suggestions for experimental approaches to test for such feedbacks with coupled climate models are given.

  17. The role of the thermohaline circulation in abrupt climate change.

    PubMed

    Clark, Peter U; Pisias, Nicklas G; Stocker, Thomas F; Weaver, Andrew J

    2002-02-21

    The possibility of a reduced Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to increases in greenhouse-gas concentrations has been demonstrated in a number of simulations with general circulation models of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. But it remains difficult to assess the likelihood of future changes in the thermohaline circulation, mainly owing to poorly constrained model parameterizations and uncertainties in the response of the climate system to greenhouse warming. Analyses of past abrupt climate changes help to solve these problems. Data and models both suggest that abrupt climate change during the last glaciation originated through changes in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to small changes in the hydrological cycle. Atmospheric and oceanic responses to these changes were then transmitted globally through a number of feedbacks. The palaeoclimate data and the model results also indicate that the stability of the thermohaline circulation depends on the mean climate state.

  18. The role of the thermohaline circulation in abrupt climate change.

    PubMed

    Clark, Peter U; Pisias, Nicklas G; Stocker, Thomas F; Weaver, Andrew J

    2002-02-21

    The possibility of a reduced Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to increases in greenhouse-gas concentrations has been demonstrated in a number of simulations with general circulation models of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. But it remains difficult to assess the likelihood of future changes in the thermohaline circulation, mainly owing to poorly constrained model parameterizations and uncertainties in the response of the climate system to greenhouse warming. Analyses of past abrupt climate changes help to solve these problems. Data and models both suggest that abrupt climate change during the last glaciation originated through changes in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to small changes in the hydrological cycle. Atmospheric and oceanic responses to these changes were then transmitted globally through a number of feedbacks. The palaeoclimate data and the model results also indicate that the stability of the thermohaline circulation depends on the mean climate state. PMID:11859359

  19. Climate oscillations and abrupt changes in C14 data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuznetsova, T. V.; Tsirulnik, L. B.

    2004-01-01

    The radiocarbon series are analysed by a method of non-linear spectral analysis to detect time intervals of appearance of non-stationary oscillations of large amplitude, and the times of abrupt changes of their oscillation regime. The analysis shows that the most powerful cycles of the spectra can be interpreted in terms of periods (and their respective higher harmonics) of astronomical origin. An intense stationary sinusoid from the spectrum with period T˜6500 yr, the 4th harmonic of the period of equinox precession, correlates with the time variations of the geomagnetic dipole moment. The most powerful non-stationary sinusoid with mean period T=2230 yr, reflects oscillations in C14 data related to the non-dipole part of the geomagnetic field, and correlates with periods of climate warming/cooling. The apparent regularities that can be inferred in the interaction of such two powerful cycles (i.e. stationary and non-stationary parts of the uniform mechanism of the geomagnetic field generation) permit to forecast a tendency of the climate changes. A possible physical mechanism is presented based on a possible transformation, of some signals caused by perturbation of the tidal forces of astronomical origin (that can arise along the orbit of the Earth), into effects that control geophysical systems through small variations of the dissipative parameters of a dynamo system.

  20. Response of seafloor ecosystems to abrupt global climate change

    PubMed Central

    Moffitt, Sarah E.; Hill, Tessa M.; Roopnarine, Peter D.; Kennett, James P.

    2015-01-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to decrease oceanic oxygen (O2) concentrations, with potentially significant effects on marine ecosystems. Geologically recent episodes of abrupt climatic warming provide opportunities to assess the effects of changing oxygenation on marine communities. Thus far, this knowledge has been largely restricted to investigations using Foraminifera, with little being known about ecosystem-scale responses to abrupt, climate-forced deoxygenation. We here present high-resolution records based on the first comprehensive quantitative analysis, to our knowledge, of changes in marine metazoans (Mollusca, Echinodermata, Arthropoda, and Annelida; >5,400 fossils and trace fossils) in response to the global warming associated with the last glacial to interglacial episode. The molluscan archive is dominated by extremophile taxa, including those containing endosymbiotic sulfur-oxidizing bacteria (Lucinoma aequizonatum) and those that graze on filamentous sulfur-oxidizing benthic bacterial mats (Alia permodesta). This record, from 16,100 to 3,400 y ago, demonstrates that seafloor invertebrate communities are subject to major turnover in response to relatively minor inferred changes in oxygenation (>1.5 to <0.5 mL⋅L−1 [O2]) associated with abrupt (<100 y) warming of the eastern Pacific. The biotic turnover and recovery events within the record expand known rates of marine biological recovery by an order of magnitude, from <100 to >1,000 y, and illustrate the crucial role of climate and oceanographic change in driving long-term successional changes in ocean ecosystems. PMID:25825727

  1. Response of seafloor ecosystems to abrupt global climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moffitt, Sarah E.; Hill, Tessa M.; Roopnarine, Peter D.; Kennett, James P.

    2015-04-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to decrease oceanic oxygen (O2) concentrations, with potentially significant effects on marine ecosystems. Geologically recent episodes of abrupt climatic warming provide opportunities to assess the effects of changing oxygenation on marine communities. Thus far, this knowledge has been largely restricted to investigations using Foraminifera, with little being known about ecosystem-scale responses to abrupt, climate-forced deoxygenation. We here present high-resolution records based on the first comprehensive quantitative analysis, to our knowledge, of changes in marine metazoans (Mollusca, Echinodermata, Arthropoda, and Annelida; >5,400 fossils and trace fossils) in response to the global warming associated with the last glacial to interglacial episode. The molluscan archive is dominated by extremophile taxa, including those containing endosymbiotic sulfur-oxidizing bacteria (Lucinoma aequizonatum) and those that graze on filamentous sulfur-oxidizing benthic bacterial mats (Alia permodesta). This record, from 16,100 to 3,400 y ago, demonstrates that seafloor invertebrate communities are subject to major turnover in response to relatively minor inferred changes in oxygenation (>1.5 to <0.5 mLṡL-1 [O2]) associated with abrupt (<100 y) warming of the eastern Pacific. The biotic turnover and recovery events within the record expand known rates of marine biological recovery by an order of magnitude, from <100 to >1,000 y, and illustrate the crucial role of climate and oceanographic change in driving long-term successional changes in ocean ecosystems.

  2. Response of seafloor ecosystems to abrupt global climate change.

    PubMed

    Moffitt, Sarah E; Hill, Tessa M; Roopnarine, Peter D; Kennett, James P

    2015-04-14

    Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to decrease oceanic oxygen (O2) concentrations, with potentially significant effects on marine ecosystems. Geologically recent episodes of abrupt climatic warming provide opportunities to assess the effects of changing oxygenation on marine communities. Thus far, this knowledge has been largely restricted to investigations using Foraminifera, with little being known about ecosystem-scale responses to abrupt, climate-forced deoxygenation. We here present high-resolution records based on the first comprehensive quantitative analysis, to our knowledge, of changes in marine metazoans (Mollusca, Echinodermata, Arthropoda, and Annelida; >5,400 fossils and trace fossils) in response to the global warming associated with the last glacial to interglacial episode. The molluscan archive is dominated by extremophile taxa, including those containing endosymbiotic sulfur-oxidizing bacteria (Lucinoma aequizonatum) and those that graze on filamentous sulfur-oxidizing benthic bacterial mats (Alia permodesta). This record, from 16,100 to 3,400 y ago, demonstrates that seafloor invertebrate communities are subject to major turnover in response to relatively minor inferred changes in oxygenation (>1.5 to <0.5 mL⋅L(-1) [O2]) associated with abrupt (<100 y) warming of the eastern Pacific. The biotic turnover and recovery events within the record expand known rates of marine biological recovery by an order of magnitude, from <100 to >1,000 y, and illustrate the crucial role of climate and oceanographic change in driving long-term successional changes in ocean ecosystems.

  3. Response of seafloor ecosystems to abrupt global climate change.

    PubMed

    Moffitt, Sarah E; Hill, Tessa M; Roopnarine, Peter D; Kennett, James P

    2015-04-14

    Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to decrease oceanic oxygen (O2) concentrations, with potentially significant effects on marine ecosystems. Geologically recent episodes of abrupt climatic warming provide opportunities to assess the effects of changing oxygenation on marine communities. Thus far, this knowledge has been largely restricted to investigations using Foraminifera, with little being known about ecosystem-scale responses to abrupt, climate-forced deoxygenation. We here present high-resolution records based on the first comprehensive quantitative analysis, to our knowledge, of changes in marine metazoans (Mollusca, Echinodermata, Arthropoda, and Annelida; >5,400 fossils and trace fossils) in response to the global warming associated with the last glacial to interglacial episode. The molluscan archive is dominated by extremophile taxa, including those containing endosymbiotic sulfur-oxidizing bacteria (Lucinoma aequizonatum) and those that graze on filamentous sulfur-oxidizing benthic bacterial mats (Alia permodesta). This record, from 16,100 to 3,400 y ago, demonstrates that seafloor invertebrate communities are subject to major turnover in response to relatively minor inferred changes in oxygenation (>1.5 to <0.5 mL⋅L(-1) [O2]) associated with abrupt (<100 y) warming of the eastern Pacific. The biotic turnover and recovery events within the record expand known rates of marine biological recovery by an order of magnitude, from <100 to >1,000 y, and illustrate the crucial role of climate and oceanographic change in driving long-term successional changes in ocean ecosystems. PMID:25825727

  4. Abrupt climate change and collapse of deep-sea ecosystems

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Yasuhara, Moriaki; Cronin, T. M.; Demenocal, P.B.; Okahashi, H.; Linsley, B.K.

    2008-01-01

    We investigated the deep-sea fossil record of benthic ostracodes during periods of rapid climate and oceanographic change over the past 20,000 years in a core from intermediate depth in the northwestern Atlantic. Results show that deep-sea benthic community "collapses" occur with faunal turnover of up to 50% during major climatically driven oceanographic changes. Species diversity as measured by the Shannon-Wiener index falls from 3 to as low as 1.6 during these events. Major disruptions in the benthic communities commenced with Heinrich Event 1, the Inter-Aller??d Cold Period (IACP: 13.1 ka), the Younger Dryas (YD: 12.9-11.5 ka), and several Holocene Bond events when changes in deep-water circulation occurred. The largest collapse is associated with the YD/IACP and is characterized by an abrupt two-step decrease in both the upper North Atlantic Deep Water assemblage and species diversity at 13.1 ka and at 12.2 ka. The ostracode fauna at this site did not fully recover until ???8 ka, with the establishment of Labrador Sea Water ventilation. Ecologically opportunistic slope species prospered during this community collapse. Other abrupt community collapses during the past 20 ka generally correspond to millennial climate events. These results indicate that deep-sea ecosystems are not immune to the effects of rapid climate changes occurring over centuries or less. ?? 2008 by The National Academy of Sciences of the USA.

  5. Shock wave interaction with an abrupt area change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Salas, Manuel D.

    1991-01-01

    The wave patterns that occur when a shock wave interacts with an abrupt area changed are analyzed in terms of the incident shock wave Mach number and area-jump ratio. The solutions predicted by a semi-similar models are in good agreement with those obtained numerically from the quasi-one-dimensional time-dependent Euler equations. The entropy production for the wave system is defined and the principle of minimum entropy production is used to resolve a nonuniqueness problem of the self-similar model.

  6. Abrupt glacial climate shifts controlled by ice sheet changes.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Xu; Lohmann, Gerrit; Knorr, Gregor; Purcell, Conor

    2014-08-21

    During glacial periods of the Late Pleistocene, an abundance of proxy data demonstrates the existence of large and repeated millennial-scale warming episodes, known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. This ubiquitous feature of rapid glacial climate change can be extended back as far as 800,000 years before present (BP) in the ice core record, and has drawn broad attention within the science and policy-making communities alike. Many studies have been dedicated to investigating the underlying causes of these changes, but no coherent mechanism has yet been identified. Here we show, by using a comprehensive fully coupled model, that gradual changes in the height of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets (NHISs) can alter the coupled atmosphere-ocean system and cause rapid glacial climate shifts closely resembling DO events. The simulated global climate responses--including abrupt warming in the North Atlantic, a northward shift of the tropical rainbelts, and Southern Hemisphere cooling related to the bipolar seesaw--are generally consistent with empirical evidence. As a result of the coexistence of two glacial ocean circulation states at intermediate heights of the ice sheets, minor changes in the height of the NHISs and the amount of atmospheric CO2 can trigger the rapid climate transitions via a local positive atmosphere-ocean-sea-ice feedback in the North Atlantic. Our results, although based on a single model, thus provide a coherent concept for understanding the recorded millennial-scale variability and abrupt climate changes in the coupled atmosphere-ocean system, as well as their linkages to the volume of the intermediate ice sheets during glacials.

  7. Abrupt glacial climate shifts controlled by ice sheet changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Xu; Lohmann, Gerrit; Knorr, Gregor; Purcell, Conor

    2014-08-01

    During glacial periods of the Late Pleistocene, an abundance of proxy data demonstrates the existence of large and repeated millennial-scale warming episodes, known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. This ubiquitous feature of rapid glacial climate change can be extended back as far as 800,000 years before present (BP) in the ice core record, and has drawn broad attention within the science and policy-making communities alike. Many studies have been dedicated to investigating the underlying causes of these changes, but no coherent mechanism has yet been identified. Here we show, by using a comprehensive fully coupled model, that gradual changes in the height of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets (NHISs) can alter the coupled atmosphere-ocean system and cause rapid glacial climate shifts closely resembling DO events. The simulated global climate responses--including abrupt warming in the North Atlantic, a northward shift of the tropical rainbelts, and Southern Hemisphere cooling related to the bipolar seesaw--are generally consistent with empirical evidence. As a result of the coexistence of two glacial ocean circulation states at intermediate heights of the ice sheets, minor changes in the height of the NHISs and the amount of atmospheric CO2 can trigger the rapid climate transitions via a local positive atmosphere-ocean-sea-ice feedback in the North Atlantic. Our results, although based on a single model, thus provide a coherent concept for understanding the recorded millennial-scale variability and abrupt climate changes in the coupled atmosphere-ocean system, as well as their linkages to the volume of the intermediate ice sheets during glacials.

  8. Abrupt glacial climate shifts controlled by ice sheet changes.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Xu; Lohmann, Gerrit; Knorr, Gregor; Purcell, Conor

    2014-08-21

    During glacial periods of the Late Pleistocene, an abundance of proxy data demonstrates the existence of large and repeated millennial-scale warming episodes, known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. This ubiquitous feature of rapid glacial climate change can be extended back as far as 800,000 years before present (BP) in the ice core record, and has drawn broad attention within the science and policy-making communities alike. Many studies have been dedicated to investigating the underlying causes of these changes, but no coherent mechanism has yet been identified. Here we show, by using a comprehensive fully coupled model, that gradual changes in the height of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets (NHISs) can alter the coupled atmosphere-ocean system and cause rapid glacial climate shifts closely resembling DO events. The simulated global climate responses--including abrupt warming in the North Atlantic, a northward shift of the tropical rainbelts, and Southern Hemisphere cooling related to the bipolar seesaw--are generally consistent with empirical evidence. As a result of the coexistence of two glacial ocean circulation states at intermediate heights of the ice sheets, minor changes in the height of the NHISs and the amount of atmospheric CO2 can trigger the rapid climate transitions via a local positive atmosphere-ocean-sea-ice feedback in the North Atlantic. Our results, although based on a single model, thus provide a coherent concept for understanding the recorded millennial-scale variability and abrupt climate changes in the coupled atmosphere-ocean system, as well as their linkages to the volume of the intermediate ice sheets during glacials. PMID:25119027

  9. Abrupt Change 8200 Years Ago: The Smoking Gun?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alley, R. B.

    2003-12-01

    The large, rapid, widespread climate change about 8200 years ago followed a large freshening of the North Atlantic Ocean, and produced climate anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere that are consistent with the expected response to North Atlantic cooling and that mimic the larger and longer-lasting effects of the Younger Dryas and older events. The short-lived nature of this Holocene event explains the lack of a signal at high southern latitudes, and the other features support the hypotheses that abrupt climate changes have been forced by North Atlantic freshening, and that Holocene warmth is not a guarantee of stability. Comparison of modeled and observed impacts of North Atlantic freshening suggests that some models are somewhat undersensitive compared to the real world.

  10. Wildfire responses to abrupt climate change in North America.

    PubMed

    Marlon, J R; Bartlein, P J; Walsh, M K; Harrison, S P; Brown, K J; Edwards, M E; Higuera, P E; Power, M J; Anderson, R S; Briles, C; Brunelle, A; Carcaillet, C; Daniels, M; Hu, F S; Lavoie, M; Long, C; Minckley, T; Richard, P J H; Scott, A C; Shafer, D S; Tinner, W; Umbanhowar, C E; Whitlock, C

    2009-02-24

    It is widely accepted, based on data from the last few decades and on model simulations, that anthropogenic climate change will cause increased fire activity. However, less attention has been paid to the relationship between abrupt climate changes and heightened fire activity in the paleorecord. We use 35 charcoal and pollen records to assess how fire regimes in North America changed during the last glacial-interglacial transition (15 to 10 ka), a time of large and rapid climate changes. We also test the hypothesis that a comet impact initiated continental-scale wildfires at 12.9 ka; the data do not support this idea, nor are continent-wide fires indicated at any time during deglaciation. There are, however, clear links between large climate changes and fire activity. Biomass burning gradually increased from the glacial period to the beginning of the Younger Dryas. Although there are changes in biomass burning during the Younger Dryas, there is no systematic trend. There is a further increase in biomass burning after the Younger Dryas. Intervals of rapid climate change at 13.9, 13.2, and 11.7 ka are marked by large increases in fire activity. The timing of changes in fire is not coincident with changes in human population density or the timing of the extinction of the megafauna. Although these factors could have contributed to fire-regime changes at individual sites or at specific times, the charcoal data indicate an important role for climate, and particularly rapid climate change, in determining broad-scale levels of fire activity.

  11. Dynamic response of desert wetlands to abrupt climate change

    PubMed Central

    Springer, Kathleen B.; Manker, Craig R.; Pigati, Jeffrey S.

    2015-01-01

    Desert wetlands are keystone ecosystems in arid environments and are preserved in the geologic record as groundwater discharge (GWD) deposits. GWD deposits are inherently discontinuous and stratigraphically complex, which has limited our understanding of how desert wetlands responded to past episodes of rapid climate change. Previous studies have shown that wetlands responded to climate change on glacial to interglacial timescales, but their sensitivity to short-lived climate perturbations is largely unknown. Here, we show that GWD deposits in the Las Vegas Valley (southern Nevada, United States) provide a detailed and nearly complete record of dynamic hydrologic changes during the past 35 ka (thousands of calibrated 14C years before present), including cycles of wetland expansion and contraction that correlate tightly with climatic oscillations recorded in the Greenland ice cores. Cessation of discharge associated with rapid warming events resulted in the collapse of entire wetland systems in the Las Vegas Valley at multiple times during the late Quaternary. On average, drought-like conditions, as recorded by widespread erosion and the formation of desert soils, lasted for a few centuries. This record illustrates the vulnerability of desert wetland flora and fauna to abrupt climate change. It also shows that GWD deposits can be used to reconstruct paleohydrologic conditions at millennial to submillennial timescales and informs conservation efforts aimed at protecting these fragile ecosystems in the face of anthropogenic warming. PMID:26554007

  12. Dynamic response of desert wetlands to abrupt climate change.

    PubMed

    Springer, Kathleen B; Manker, Craig R; Pigati, Jeffrey S

    2015-11-24

    Desert wetlands are keystone ecosystems in arid environments and are preserved in the geologic record as groundwater discharge (GWD) deposits. GWD deposits are inherently discontinuous and stratigraphically complex, which has limited our understanding of how desert wetlands responded to past episodes of rapid climate change. Previous studies have shown that wetlands responded to climate change on glacial to interglacial timescales, but their sensitivity to short-lived climate perturbations is largely unknown. Here, we show that GWD deposits in the Las Vegas Valley (southern Nevada, United States) provide a detailed and nearly complete record of dynamic hydrologic changes during the past 35 ka (thousands of calibrated (14)C years before present), including cycles of wetland expansion and contraction that correlate tightly with climatic oscillations recorded in the Greenland ice cores. Cessation of discharge associated with rapid warming events resulted in the collapse of entire wetland systems in the Las Vegas Valley at multiple times during the late Quaternary. On average, drought-like conditions, as recorded by widespread erosion and the formation of desert soils, lasted for a few centuries. This record illustrates the vulnerability of desert wetland flora and fauna to abrupt climate change. It also shows that GWD deposits can be used to reconstruct paleohydrologic conditions at millennial to submillennial timescales and informs conservation efforts aimed at protecting these fragile ecosystems in the face of anthropogenic warming. PMID:26554007

  13. Dynamic response of desert wetlands to abrupt climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Springer, Kathleen; Manker, Craig; Pigati, Jeff

    2015-01-01

    Desert wetlands are keystone ecosystems in arid environments and are preserved in the geologic record as groundwater discharge (GWD) deposits. GWD deposits are inherently discontinuous and stratigraphically complex, which has limited our understanding of how desert wetlands responded to past episodes of rapid climate change. Previous studies have shown that wetlands responded to climate change on glacial to interglacial timescales, but their sensitivity to short-lived climate perturbations is largely unknown. Here, we show that GWD deposits in the Las Vegas Valley (southern Nevada, United States) provide a detailed and nearly complete record of dynamic hydrologic changes during the past 35 ka (thousands of calibrated 14C years before present), including cycles of wetland expansion and contraction that correlate tightly with climatic oscillations recorded in the Greenland ice cores. Cessation of discharge associated with rapid warming events resulted in the collapse of entire wetland systems in the Las Vegas Valley at multiple times during the late Quaternary. On average, drought-like conditions, as recorded by widespread erosion and the formation of desert soils, lasted for a few centuries. This record illustrates the vulnerability of desert wetland flora and fauna to abrupt climate change. It also shows that GWD deposits can be used to reconstruct paleohydrologic conditions at millennial to submillennial timescales and informs conservation efforts aimed at protecting these fragile ecosystems in the face of anthropogenic warming.

  14. Dynamic response of desert wetlands to abrupt climate change.

    PubMed

    Springer, Kathleen B; Manker, Craig R; Pigati, Jeffrey S

    2015-11-24

    Desert wetlands are keystone ecosystems in arid environments and are preserved in the geologic record as groundwater discharge (GWD) deposits. GWD deposits are inherently discontinuous and stratigraphically complex, which has limited our understanding of how desert wetlands responded to past episodes of rapid climate change. Previous studies have shown that wetlands responded to climate change on glacial to interglacial timescales, but their sensitivity to short-lived climate perturbations is largely unknown. Here, we show that GWD deposits in the Las Vegas Valley (southern Nevada, United States) provide a detailed and nearly complete record of dynamic hydrologic changes during the past 35 ka (thousands of calibrated (14)C years before present), including cycles of wetland expansion and contraction that correlate tightly with climatic oscillations recorded in the Greenland ice cores. Cessation of discharge associated with rapid warming events resulted in the collapse of entire wetland systems in the Las Vegas Valley at multiple times during the late Quaternary. On average, drought-like conditions, as recorded by widespread erosion and the formation of desert soils, lasted for a few centuries. This record illustrates the vulnerability of desert wetland flora and fauna to abrupt climate change. It also shows that GWD deposits can be used to reconstruct paleohydrologic conditions at millennial to submillennial timescales and informs conservation efforts aimed at protecting these fragile ecosystems in the face of anthropogenic warming.

  15. Abrupt climate change and the decline of Indus urbanism

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hodell, D. A.; Dixit, Y.; Petrie, C. A.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change has been suggested as a cause for the decline of the cities of the Indus Civilization, which is believed to have begun ~4.0 to 3.9 ky B.P. Previous studies have centered on paleoclimatic records obtained from areas outside the geographic limits of the Indus Civilization, raising questions about their suitability for evaluating past climate-cultural linkages. Here we report a detailed climate record from paleolake Kotla Dahar, Haryana (28°00'095'' N, 76°57'173'' E), located at the eastern edge of the distribution of Indus settlements and ~100km to the east of the city-site of Rakhigarhi in NW India. Regional hydrologic changes are inferred using oxygen-isotope measurements of gastropod aragonite from a 2.88-m sediment section. A permanent ~4‰ increase in δ18O of shell aragonite occurred at ~4.1±0.1 ky B.P., marking an abrupt increase in evaporation/precipitation in the lake catchment. These data provide evidence for a weakening of the monsoon and shift toward drier climate on the plains of northwest (NW) India at ~4.1±0.1 ky B.P. Decreased monsoon rainfall at this time may have been linked to increased ENSO variability, and supports a possible role of climate in the transformation of the Indus Civilization from an urbanized (mature or urban Indus) to a rural (post-urban) society.

  16. From Abrupt Change to the Future (Hans Oeschger Medal Lecture)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stocker, T.

    2009-04-01

    The award of the Oeschger Medal 2009 is a particular honor and pleasure for me as I was given the chance to take over from Hans Oeschger the lead of a wonderful Institute at the University of Bern in 1993. Very apprehensive first, in front of the huge expectations and challenges, I quickly found dear colleagues, close collaborators and extremely supportive staff who all dedicated their time and creativity to work for the common goal of better understanding the Earth System, its variations in the past and its sensitivity to perturbations that man is inflicting on it today. Although met with innate skepticism first by the experimental physicists, our efforts in modelling, particularly the approach of using climate models of reduced complexity, quickly paid off and provided added value to the hard won data and measurements from polar ice cores. It is clear that modelling in such a diverse environment is so much more stimulating and enriching than working on a sophisticated parameterisation in a big modelling centre. Simple models have suggested that the Earth System may have limited stability and that rather fundamental changes could be triggered by the increase of greenhouse gases. However, it is the unique results from polar ice cores, particularly from Greenland that showed that, indeed, the Earth System has limited stability and can react in extremely abrupt ways to changes in forcing. Likewise, the Antarctic ice cores have provided one of the corner stones of our knowledge about climate change: Concentrations of CO2 are today 29% higher than ever during the last 800,000 years. These two fundamental insights from the paleoclimatic archive call for accelerated research into the sensitivity of the climate system and its components to perturbations, as well as the investigation of feedback mechanisms in the biogeochemical cycles that are disturbed by the input of CO2 into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels and land use change. Our research has only scratched the

  17. Gradual and abrupt changes during the Mid-Pleistocene Transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ford, Heather L.; Sosdian, Sindia M.; Rosenthal, Yair; Raymo, Maureen E.

    2016-09-01

    During the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT), the dominant glacial-interglacial cyclicity as inferred from the marine δ18O records of benthic foraminifera (δ18Obenthic) changed from 41 kyr to 100 kyr years in the absence of a comparable change in orbital forcing. Currently, only two Mg/Ca-derived, high-resolution bottom water temperature (BWT) records exist that can be used with δ18Obenthic records to separate temperature and ice volume signals over the Pleistocene. However, these two BWT records suggest a different pattern of climate change occurred over the MPT-a record from North Atlantic DSDP Site 607 suggests BWT decreased with no long-term trend in ice volume over the MPT, while South Pacific ODP Site 1123 suggests that BWT has been relatively stable over the last 1.5 Myr but that there was an abrupt increase in ice volume at ∼900 kyr. In this paper we attempt to reconcile these two views of climate change across the MPT. Specifically, we investigated the suggestion that the secular BWT trend obtained from Mg/Ca measurements on Cibicidoides wuellerstorfi and Oridorsalis umbonatus species from N. Atlantic Site 607 is biased by the possible influence of Δ[CO32-] on Mg/Ca values in these species by generating a low-resolution BWT record using Uvigerina spp., a genus whose Mg/Ca values are not thought to be influenced by Δ[CO32-]. We find a long-term BWT cooling of ∼2-3°C occurred from 1500 to ∼500 kyr in the N. Atlantic, consistent with the previously generated C. wuellerstorfi and O. umbonatus BWT record. We also find that changes in ocean circulation likely influenced δ18Obenthic, BWT, and δ18Oseawater records across the MPT. N. Atlantic BWT cooling starting at ∼1.2 Ma, presumably driven by high-latitude cooling, may have been a necessary precursor to a threshold response in climate-ice sheet behavior at ∼900 ka. At that point, a modest increase in ice volume and thermohaline reorganization may have caused enhanced sensitivity to the 100 kyr

  18. Transition process of abrupt climate change based on global sea surface temperature over the past century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yan, Pengcheng; Hou, Wei; Feng, Guolin

    2016-05-01

    A new detection method has been proposed to study the transition process of abrupt climate change. With this method, the climate system transiting from one stable state to another can be verified clearly. By applying this method to the global sea surface temperature over the past century, several climate changes and their processes are detected, including the start state (moment), persist time, and end state (moment). According to the spatial distribution, the locations of climate changes mainly have occurred in the Indian Ocean and western Pacific before the middle twentieth century, in the 1970s in the equatorial middle-eastern Pacific, and in the middle and southern Pacific since the end of the twentieth century. In addition, the quantitative relationship between the transition process parameters is verified in theory and practice: (1) the relationship between the rate and stability parameters is linear, and (2) the relationship between the rate and change amplitude parameters is quadratic.

  19. Arctic Ocean freshwater as a trigger for abrupt climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bradley, Raymond; Condron, Alan; Coletti, Anthony

    2016-04-01

    The cause of the Younger Dryas cooling remains unresolved despite decades of debate. Current arguments focus on either freshwater from Glacial Lake Agassiz drainage through the St Lawrence or the MacKenzie river systems. High resolution ocean modeling suggests that freshwater delivered to the North Atlantic from the Arctic Ocean through Fram Strait would have had more of an impact on Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) than freshwater from the St Lawrence. This has been interpreted as an argument for a MacKenzie River /Lake Agassiz freshwater source. However, it is important to note that although the modeling identifies Fram Strait as the optimum location for delivery of freshwater to disrupt the AMOC, this does not mean the freshwater source came from Lake Agassiz. Another potential source of freshwater is the Arctic Ocean ice cover itself. During the LGM, ice cover was extremely thick - many tens of meters in the Canada Basin (at least), resulting in a hiatus in sediment deposition there. Extreme ice thickness was related to a stagnant circulation, very low temperatures and continuous accumulation of snow on top of a base of sea-ice. This resulted in a large accumulation of freshwater in the Arctic Basin. As sea-level rose and a more modern circulation regime became established in the Arctic, this freshwater was released from the Arctic Ocean through Fram Strait, leading to extensive sea-ice formation in the North Atlantic (Greenland Sea) and a major reduction in the AMOC. Here we present new model results and a review of the paleoceanographic evidence to support this hypothesis. The bottom line is that the Arctic Ocean was likely a major player in causing abrupt climate change in the past, via its influence on the AMOC. Although we focus here on the Younger Dryas, the Arctic Ocean has been repeatedly isolated from the world ocean during glacial periods of the past. When these periods of isolation ended, it is probable that there were significant

  20. ABRUPT LONGITUDINAL MAGNETIC FIELD CHANGES IN FLARING ACTIVE REGIONS

    SciTech Connect

    Petrie, G. J. D.; Sudol, J. J.

    2010-12-01

    We characterize the changes in the longitudinal photospheric magnetic field during 38 X-class and 39 M-class flares within 65{sup 0} of disk center using 1 minute GONG magnetograms. In all 77 cases, we identify at least one site in the flaring active region where clear, permanent, stepwise field changes occurred. The median duration of the field changes was about 15 minutes and was approximately equal for X-class and for M-class flares. The absolute values of the field changes ranged from the detection limit of {approx}10 G to as high as {approx}450 G in two exceptional cases. The median value was 69 G. Field changes were significantly stronger for X-class than for M-class flares and for limb flares than for disk-center flares. Longitudinal field changes less than 100 G tended to decrease longitudinal field strengths, both close to disk center and close to the limb, while field changes greater than 100 G showed no such pattern. Likewise, longitudinal flux strengths tended to decrease during flares. Flux changes, particularly net flux changes near disk center, correlated better than local field changes with GOES peak X-ray flux. The strongest longitudinal field and flux changes occurred in flares observed close to the limb. We estimate the change of Lorentz force associated with each flare and find that this is large enough in some cases to power seismic waves. We find that longitudinal field decreases would likely outnumber increases at all parts of the solar disk within 65{sup 0} of disk center, as in our observations, if photospheric field tilts increase during flares as predicted by Hudson et al.

  1. Remote Detection and Modeling of Abrupt and Gradual Tree Mortality in the Southwestern USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muss, J. D.; Xu, C.; McDowell, N. G.

    2014-12-01

    Current climate models predict a warming and drying trend that has a high probability of increasing the frequency and spatial extent of tree mortality events. Field surveys can be used to identify, date, and attribute a cause of mortality to specific trees, but monetary and time constraints prevent broad-scale surveys, which are necessary to establish regional or global trends in tree mortality. This is significant because widespread forest mortality will likely lead to radical changes in evapotranspiration and surface albedo, which could compound climate change. While understanding the causes and mechanisms of tree mortality events is crucial, it is equally important to be able to detect and monitor mortality and subsequent changes to the ecosystem at broad spatial- and temporal-scales. Over the past five years our ability to remotely detect abrupt forest mortality events has improved greatly, but gradual events—such as those caused by drought or certain types of insects—are still difficult to identify. Moreover, it is virtually impossible to quantify the amount of mortality that has occurred within a mixed pixel. We have developed a system that fuses climate and satellite-derived spectral data to identify both the date and the agent of forest mortality events. This system has been used with Landsat time series data to detect both abrupt and general trends in tree loss that have occurred during the past quarter-century in northern New Mexico. It has also been used with MODIS data to identify pixels with a high likelihood of drought-caused tree mortality in the Southwestern US. These candidate pixels were then fed to ED-FRT, a coupled forest dynamics-radiative transfer model, to generate estimates of drought-induced. We demonstrate a multi-scale approach that can produce results that will be instrumental in advancing our understanding of tree mortality-climate feedbacks, and improve our ability to predict what forests could look like in the future.

  2. Low-latitude mountain glacier evidence for abrupt climate changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thompson, L. G.; Mosley-Thompson, E. S.; Lin, P.; Davis, M. E.; Mashiotta, T. A.; Brecher, H. H.

    2004-12-01

    Clear evidence that a widespread warming of Earth's climate system is now underway comes from low latitude mountain glaciers. Proxy temperature histories reconstructed from ice cores, and the rapidly accelerating loss of both the total ice area and ice volume on a near global scale suggest that these glaciers responding to increasing rates of melting. In situ observations reveal the startling rates at which many tropical glaciers are disappearing. For example, the retreat of the terminus of the Qori Kalis Glacier in Peru is roughly 200 meters per year, 40 times faster than its retreat rate in 1978. Similarly, in 1912 the ice on Mount Kilimanjaro covered 12.1 km2, but today it covers only 2.6 km2. If the current rate of retreat continues, the perennial ice fields may disappear within the next few decades, making this the first time in the past 11,700 years that Kilimanjaro will be devoid of the ice that shrouds its summit. Tropical glaciers may be considered ``the canaries in the coal mine'' for the global climate system as they integrate and respond to key climatological variables, such as temperature, precipitation, cloudiness, humidity, and incident solar radiation. A composite of the decadally-averaged oxygen isotopic records from three Andean and three Tibetan ice cores extending back over the last two millennia shows an isotopic enrichment in the 20th century that suggests a large-scale warming is underway at lower latitudes. Multiple lines of evidence from Africa, the Middle East, Europe and South America indicate an abrupt mid-Holocene climate event in the low latitudes. If such an event were to occur now with a global human population of 6.3 billion people, the consequences could be severe. Clearly, we need to understand the nature and cause of abrupt climate events.

  3. Abrupt changes in North American climate during early Holocene times

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, F. S.; Slawinski, D.; Wright, H. E.; Ito, E.; Johnson, R. G.; Kelts, K. R.; McEwan, R. F.; Boedigheimer, A.

    1999-07-01

    Recent studies of the Greenland ice cores have offered many insights into Holocene climatic dynamics at decadal to century timescales. Despite the abundance of continental records of Holocene climate, few have sufficient chronological control and sampling resolution to compare with the Greenland findings. Butannually laminated sediments (varves) from lakes can provide high-resolution continental palaeoclimate data with secure chronologies. Here we present analyses of varved sediments from Deep Lake in Minnesota, USA. Trends in the stable oxygen-isotope composition of the sedimentary carbonate indicate a pronounced climate cooling from 8.9 to 8.3kyr before present, probably characterized by increased outbreaks of polar air, decreased precipitation temperatures, and a higher fraction of the annual precipitation falling as snow. The abrupt onset of this climate reversal, over several decades, was probably caused by a reorganization of atmospheric circulation and cooling of the Arctic airmass in summer that resulted from the final collapse of the Laurentide ice near Hudson Bay and the discharge of icebergs from the Quebec and Keewatin centres into the Tyrell Sea. The timing and duration of this climate reversal suggest that it is distinct from the prominent widespread cold snap that occurred 8,200 years ago in Greenland and other regions,,. No shifts in the oxygen-isotope composition of sediment carbonate occurred at 8.2kyr before present at Deep Lake, but varve thickness increased dramatically, probably as a result of increased deposition of aeolian dust. Taken together, our data suggest that two separate regional-scale climate reversals occurred between 9,000 and 8,000 years ago, and that they were driven by different mechanisms.

  4. Abrupt climate change in southeast tropical Africa influenced by Indian monsoon variability and ITCZ migration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tierney, Jessica E.; Russell, James M.

    2007-08-01

    The timing and magnitude of abrupt climate change in tropical Africa during the last glacial termination remains poorly understood. High-resolution paleolimnological data from Lake Tanganyika, Southeast Africa show that wind-driven seasonal mixing in the lake was reduced during the Younger Dryas, Inter-Allerød Cool Period, Older Dryas, and Heinrich Event 1, suggesting a weakened southwest Indian monsoon and a more southerly position of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone over Africa during these intervals. These events in Lake Tanganyika, coeval with millennial and centennial-scale climate shifts in the high latitudes, suggest that changes in ITCZ location and Indian monsoon strength are important components of abrupt global climate change and that their effects are felt south of the equator in Africa. However, we observe additional events in Lake Tanganyika of equal magnitude that are not correlated with high-latitude changes, indicating the potential for abrupt climate change to originate from within tropical systems.

  5. Sensitivity and rapidity of vegetational response to abrupt climate change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Peteet, D.

    2000-01-01

    Rapid climate change characterizes numerous terrestrial sediment records during and since the last glaciation. Vegetational response is best expressed in terrestrial records near ecotones, where sensitivity to climate change is greatest, and response times are as short as decades.

  6. Catalogue of abrupt shifts in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate models.

    PubMed

    Drijfhout, Sybren; Bathiany, Sebastian; Beaulieu, Claudie; Brovkin, Victor; Claussen, Martin; Huntingford, Chris; Scheffer, Marten; Sgubin, Giovanni; Swingedouw, Didier

    2015-10-27

    Abrupt transitions of regional climate in response to the gradual rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are notoriously difficult to foresee. However, such events could be particularly challenging in view of the capacity required for society and ecosystems to adapt to them. We present, to our knowledge, the first systematic screening of the massive climate model ensemble informing the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, and reveal evidence of 37 forced regional abrupt changes in the ocean, sea ice, snow cover, permafrost, and terrestrial biosphere that arise after a certain global temperature increase. Eighteen out of 37 events occur for global warming levels of less than 2°, a threshold sometimes presented as a safe limit. Although most models predict one or more such events, any specific occurrence typically appears in only a few models. We find no compelling evidence for a general relation between the overall number of abrupt shifts and the level of global warming. However, we do note that abrupt changes in ocean circulation occur more often for moderate warming (less than 2°), whereas over land they occur more often for warming larger than 2°. Using a basic proportion test, however, we find that the number of abrupt shifts identified in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenarios is significantly larger than in other scenarios of lower radiative forcing. This suggests the potential for a gradual trend of destabilization of the climate with respect to such shifts, due to increasing global mean temperature change. PMID:26460042

  7. Catalogue of abrupt shifts in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate models

    PubMed Central

    Drijfhout, Sybren; Bathiany, Sebastian; Beaulieu, Claudie; Brovkin, Victor; Claussen, Martin; Huntingford, Chris; Scheffer, Marten; Sgubin, Giovanni; Swingedouw, Didier

    2015-01-01

    Abrupt transitions of regional climate in response to the gradual rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are notoriously difficult to foresee. However, such events could be particularly challenging in view of the capacity required for society and ecosystems to adapt to them. We present, to our knowledge, the first systematic screening of the massive climate model ensemble informing the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, and reveal evidence of 37 forced regional abrupt changes in the ocean, sea ice, snow cover, permafrost, and terrestrial biosphere that arise after a certain global temperature increase. Eighteen out of 37 events occur for global warming levels of less than 2°, a threshold sometimes presented as a safe limit. Although most models predict one or more such events, any specific occurrence typically appears in only a few models. We find no compelling evidence for a general relation between the overall number of abrupt shifts and the level of global warming. However, we do note that abrupt changes in ocean circulation occur more often for moderate warming (less than 2°), whereas over land they occur more often for warming larger than 2°. Using a basic proportion test, however, we find that the number of abrupt shifts identified in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenarios is significantly larger than in other scenarios of lower radiative forcing. This suggests the potential for a gradual trend of destabilization of the climate with respect to such shifts, due to increasing global mean temperature change. PMID:26460042

  8. Catalogue of abrupt shifts in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate models.

    PubMed

    Drijfhout, Sybren; Bathiany, Sebastian; Beaulieu, Claudie; Brovkin, Victor; Claussen, Martin; Huntingford, Chris; Scheffer, Marten; Sgubin, Giovanni; Swingedouw, Didier

    2015-10-27

    Abrupt transitions of regional climate in response to the gradual rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are notoriously difficult to foresee. However, such events could be particularly challenging in view of the capacity required for society and ecosystems to adapt to them. We present, to our knowledge, the first systematic screening of the massive climate model ensemble informing the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, and reveal evidence of 37 forced regional abrupt changes in the ocean, sea ice, snow cover, permafrost, and terrestrial biosphere that arise after a certain global temperature increase. Eighteen out of 37 events occur for global warming levels of less than 2°, a threshold sometimes presented as a safe limit. Although most models predict one or more such events, any specific occurrence typically appears in only a few models. We find no compelling evidence for a general relation between the overall number of abrupt shifts and the level of global warming. However, we do note that abrupt changes in ocean circulation occur more often for moderate warming (less than 2°), whereas over land they occur more often for warming larger than 2°. Using a basic proportion test, however, we find that the number of abrupt shifts identified in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenarios is significantly larger than in other scenarios of lower radiative forcing. This suggests the potential for a gradual trend of destabilization of the climate with respect to such shifts, due to increasing global mean temperature change.

  9. GEOMAGNETIC REVERSALS DRIVEN BY ABRUPT SEA LEVEL CHANGES

    SciTech Connect

    Muller, R.A.; Morris, D.E.

    1986-10-01

    Changes in the moment of inertia of the earth, brought about by the redistribution of ocean water from the tropics to ice at high latitudes, couple energy from the spin of the earth into convection in the liquid core. This mechanism may help provide the driving energy for the earth's dynamo. Sufficiently rapid ocean level changes can disrupt the dynamo, resulting (in half of the cases) in a geomagnetic field reversal. The model can account for the previously mysterious correlation reported between geomagnetic reversals and mass extinctions.

  10. Ice-core evidence of abrupt climate changes

    PubMed Central

    Alley, Richard B.

    2000-01-01

    Ice-core records show that climate changes in the past have been large, rapid, and synchronous over broad areas extending into low latitudes, with less variability over historical times. These ice-core records come from high mountain glaciers and the polar regions, including small ice caps and the large ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica. PMID:10677460

  11. Ice-core evidence of abrupt climate changes.

    PubMed

    Alley, R B

    2000-02-15

    Ice-core records show that climate changes in the past have been large, rapid, and synchronous over broad areas extending into low latitudes, with less variability over historical times. These ice-core records come from high mountain glaciers and the polar regions, including small ice caps and the large ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica.

  12. Abrupt climate changes and its oscillations in solar-terrestrial data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuznetsova, T.

    2003-04-01

    Time series of different solar-terrestrial data (on solar activity, geomagnetic field variations, Be-10, C-14, anomaly of global surface temperature,) are analysed by a method of non-linear spectral analysis (named by the MGM method) to detect time intervals of appearance of non-stationary oscillations of large amplitude and times of abrupt changes of their oscillation regime. Analysis shows that the most power cycles of the calculated spectra can be interpreted by periods (and overtones) of astronomical origin. The powerest non-stationary (with varying phase and amplitude) sinusoid at mean period T~2230 yr. (and its overtones), reflecting oscillations of non-dipole part of the geomagnetic field in C14 data and variations of long-term solar activity), is connected with climate variability and its abrupt changes. Derived regularities in behaviour of this cycle allow forecasting the tendency of climate changes in the future. Analysis of different studies shows that this cycle was detected in many geophysical data (governed by different physical mechanisms). It is shown that the time intervals of regime change of oscillations of the 2230-year cycle is reflected in all geophysical data synchro. It is generally recognized that climate regime shifts are connected with sudden changes of other geophysical systems although these systems are controlled by different physical mechanisms. However, this speed and the global synchronicity of climate changes are the major problems in understanding links between the Milankovich forcing of astronomical origin and climate data. It is possible to separate in orbital motion of each celestial body non-perturbed (Kepler's) part and perturbed one. The non-perturbed part of tide force characterizes non-evolving orbital motion (analogous to normal part of geophysical fields, for instance, gravitational and geomagnetic); respectively, perturbed part of tide force characterizes evolving orbital motion (analogous of anomalous part that can be

  13. Abrupt change of rotation axis in {sup 109}Ag

    SciTech Connect

    Datta, P.; Pal, S.; Chattopadhyay, S.; Bhattacharya, S.; Goswami, A.; Sarkar, M. Saha; Sun, Y.; Rao, P. V. Madhusudhana; Bhowmik, R. K.; Kumar, R.; Madhavan, N.; Muralithar, S.; Singh, R. P.; Jain, H. C.; Joshi, P. K.; Amita

    2008-08-15

    The electromagnetic transition rates for all the high spin levels of the yrast sequence of {sup 109}Ag have been measured. The observed behavior of the magnetic dipole transition rates as a function of angular momentum establishes that there is a sudden change in rotation axis associated with rotational alignment of two neutrons. The projected shell model calculations give a consistent picture of the observed phenomena in {sup 109}Ag.

  14. A Common Mechanism of Multi-timescale Abrupt Global Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duke, J. H.

    2008-12-01

    The La Nina phase of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is known to cause global cooling on inter- annual timescales through changes in deep convection patterns and reduced supply of water vapor to the tropical atmosphere. Two distinct means are presented here by which this mechanism may also act on timescales exceeding 100,000 years. Firstly, the hypothesis of millennial tidal forcing is revisited with the view that equatorial buoyancy frequencies and steep internal waves in the Pacific Equatorial Undercurrent make vertical mixing in the equatorial Pacific uniquely susceptible to incremental changes in tidal energy. Hourly Tropical Ocean Array subsurface temperature data show a resonant response to extreme tides associated with the 1997 and 2000 ENSO events. Complimenting the known 1,800 year peak tide cycle, a 550-600 year cycle of three-fold variation in the frequency of deep central eclipses (gamma < 0.05) is consistent with the timing of the Little Ice Age. Fortnightly eclipse triples (FET's) associated with this eclipse cycle are shown to coincide with both warm and cold phase Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) inflection points between 1876 and 2007, and notably the cold phase maxima of 1904 and 1917. In the second proposed trigger, southward migration of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in the central and eastern Pacific may periodically shift the rising branch of the Hadley circulation over the equatorial cold tongue. The resulting winter monsoon system develops an equatorially symmetric La Nina (ESLN) mode through a positive feedback between diverging surface winds and meridional rather than zonal SST gradients. Exchange of latent heat in the winter monsoon contracts the Hadley Cell, draws circumpolar westerly winds equatorward, and expands high latitude ice volume, as demonstrated in 1998. A three million year record of obliquity and August 10°N minus 10°S insolation (AUG10N-S) shows an ice volume dependence upon the mutual direction of

  15. Glacial climate states and abrupt climate change in MIROC AOGCM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Ohgaito, Rumi; Takahashi, Kunio; Yoshimori, Masa; Kawamura, Kenji; Oka, Akira; Chan, Wing-Le; Sherriff-Tadano, Sam

    2016-04-01

    Millennial climate change such as D-O cycles and AIM recorded in ice cores in both Hemispheres is known to show a relatively higher amplitude in the middle-level of a glacial cycle than in the interglacial state or severe glacial state. Here we ran several sensitivity experiments using a coupled atmosphere and ocean GCM (MIROC4m, renamed from MIROC3.2.2) and show that the response to fresh water release to the ocean and bipolar response is highly dependent on the background climate. The experiments were conducted with 500 years water hosing of 0.05 to 0.1 Sv (where 1 Sv is equivalent to the water flux of 10m sea level rise in 100 years) in the North Atlantic 50-70N under different basic states; modern climate state with the pre-industrial condition, middle glacial climate state and full glacial condition, mainly differing in the ice sheet configuration and atmospheric amount of Greenhouse Gases. The results under middle glacial condition show largest cooling/warming response in North Atlantic and a reasonable bipolar warming/cooling signal revealed in the ice core data of the both hemisphere. We discuss the responses under different background climates which involve the strong coupling between atmosphere, ocean and sea ice and their dependence on the configuration of ice sheet.

  16. A study of the early warning signals of abrupt change in the Pacific decadal oscillation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Hao; Hou, Wei; Yan, Peng-Cheng; Zhang, Zhi-Sen; Wang, Kuo

    2015-08-01

    In recent years, the phenomenon of a critical slowing down has demonstrated its major potential in discovering whether a complex dynamic system tends to abruptly change at critical points. This research on the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) index has been made on the basis of the critical slowing down principle in order to analyze its early warning signal of abrupt change. The chaotic characteristics of the PDO index sequence at different times are determined by using the largest Lyapunov exponent (LLE). The relationship between the regional sea surface temperature (SST) background field and the early warning signal of the PDO abrupt change is further studied through calculating the variance of the SST in the PDO region and the spatial distribution of the autocorrelation coefficient, thereby providing the experimental foundation for the extensive application of the method of the critical slowing down phenomenon. Our results show that the phenomenon of critical slowing down, such as the increase of the variance and autocorrelation coefficient, will continue for six years before the abrupt change of the PDO index. This phenomenon of the critical slowing down can be regarded as one of the early warning signals of an abrupt change. Through calculating the LLE of the PDO index during different times, it is also found that the strongest chaotic characteristics of the system occurred between 1971 and 1975 in the early stages of an abrupt change (1976), and the system was at the stage of a critical slowing down, which proves the reliability of the early warning signal of abrupt change discovered in 1970 from the mechanism. In addition, the variance of the SST, along with the spatial distribution of the autocorrelation coefficient in the corresponding PDO region, also demonstrates the corresponding relationship between the change of the background field of the SST and the change of the PDO. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos

  17. Dynamics of climate and ecosystem coupling: abrupt changes and multiple equilibria.

    PubMed Central

    Higgins, Paul A T; Mastrandrea, Michael D; Schneider, Stephen H

    2002-01-01

    Interactions between subunits of the global climate-biosphere system (e.g. atmosphere, ocean, biosphere and cryosphere) often lead to behaviour that is not evident when each subunit is viewed in isolation. This newly evident behaviour is an emergent property of the coupled subsystems. Interactions between thermohaline circulation and climate illustrate one emergent property of coupling ocean and atmospheric circulation. The multiple thermohaline circulation equilibria that result caused abrupt climate changes in the past and may cause abrupt climate changes in the future. Similarly, coupling between the climate system and ecosystem structure and function produces complex behaviour in certain regions. For example, atmosphere-biosphere interactions in the Sahel region of West Africa lead to multiple stable equilibria. Either wet or dry climate equilibria can occur under otherwise identical forcing conditions. The equilibrium reached is dependent on past history (i.e. initial conditions), and relatively small perturbations to either climate or vegetation can cause switching between the two equilibria. Both thermohaline circulation and the climate-vegetation system in the Sahel are prone to abrupt changes that may be irreversible. This complicates the relatively linear view of global changes held in many scientific and policy communities. Emergent properties of coupled socio-natural systems add yet another layer of complexity to the policy debate. As a result, the social and economic consequences of possible global changes are likely to be underestimated in most conventional analyses because these nonlinear, abrupt and irreversible responses are insufficiently considered. PMID:12079526

  18. Dynamics of climate and ecosystem coupling: abrupt changes and multiple equilibria.

    PubMed

    Higgins, Paul A T; Mastrandrea, Michael D; Schneider, Stephen H

    2002-05-29

    Interactions between subunits of the global climate-biosphere system (e.g. atmosphere, ocean, biosphere and cryosphere) often lead to behaviour that is not evident when each subunit is viewed in isolation. This newly evident behaviour is an emergent property of the coupled subsystems. Interactions between thermohaline circulation and climate illustrate one emergent property of coupling ocean and atmospheric circulation. The multiple thermohaline circulation equilibria that result caused abrupt climate changes in the past and may cause abrupt climate changes in the future. Similarly, coupling between the climate system and ecosystem structure and function produces complex behaviour in certain regions. For example, atmosphere-biosphere interactions in the Sahel region of West Africa lead to multiple stable equilibria. Either wet or dry climate equilibria can occur under otherwise identical forcing conditions. The equilibrium reached is dependent on past history (i.e. initial conditions), and relatively small perturbations to either climate or vegetation can cause switching between the two equilibria. Both thermohaline circulation and the climate-vegetation system in the Sahel are prone to abrupt changes that may be irreversible. This complicates the relatively linear view of global changes held in many scientific and policy communities. Emergent properties of coupled socio-natural systems add yet another layer of complexity to the policy debate. As a result, the social and economic consequences of possible global changes are likely to be underestimated in most conventional analyses because these nonlinear, abrupt and irreversible responses are insufficiently considered.

  19. Dynamics of climate and ecosystem coupling: abrupt changes and multiple equilibria.

    PubMed

    Higgins, Paul A T; Mastrandrea, Michael D; Schneider, Stephen H

    2002-05-29

    Interactions between subunits of the global climate-biosphere system (e.g. atmosphere, ocean, biosphere and cryosphere) often lead to behaviour that is not evident when each subunit is viewed in isolation. This newly evident behaviour is an emergent property of the coupled subsystems. Interactions between thermohaline circulation and climate illustrate one emergent property of coupling ocean and atmospheric circulation. The multiple thermohaline circulation equilibria that result caused abrupt climate changes in the past and may cause abrupt climate changes in the future. Similarly, coupling between the climate system and ecosystem structure and function produces complex behaviour in certain regions. For example, atmosphere-biosphere interactions in the Sahel region of West Africa lead to multiple stable equilibria. Either wet or dry climate equilibria can occur under otherwise identical forcing conditions. The equilibrium reached is dependent on past history (i.e. initial conditions), and relatively small perturbations to either climate or vegetation can cause switching between the two equilibria. Both thermohaline circulation and the climate-vegetation system in the Sahel are prone to abrupt changes that may be irreversible. This complicates the relatively linear view of global changes held in many scientific and policy communities. Emergent properties of coupled socio-natural systems add yet another layer of complexity to the policy debate. As a result, the social and economic consequences of possible global changes are likely to be underestimated in most conventional analyses because these nonlinear, abrupt and irreversible responses are insufficiently considered. PMID:12079526

  20. Transient Simulation of the Evolution and Abrupt Change of Northern Africa Atmosphere-Ocean-Terrestrial Ecosystem in the Holocene: What causes the abrupt change?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Z.; Wang, Y.; Gallimore, R.; Gasse, F.; Johnson, T.; Demenocal, P.; Adkins, J.; Notaro, M.; Prentice, C.; Kutzbach, J.; Jacob, R.; Behling, P.; Ong, E.; Wang, L.

    2006-12-01

    We present the first synchronously coupled transient simulation of the evolution of northern Africa climate- ecosystem for the last 6500 years in a global general circulation ocean-atmosphere-terrestrial ecosystem model. The model successfully simulated the major abrupt vegetation collapse in the southern Sahara at about 5ka, consistent with the proxy records. Local precipitation, however, shows a much more gradual decline with time. The vegetation change in northern Africa is clearly driven by local precipitation decline and strong precipitation variability. In contrast, the change of precipitation is dominated by internal climate variability and a gradual monsoonal climate response to orbital forcing. In addition, some minor vegetation changes are also simulated in different regions across northern Africa. The model simulated a reduced seasonal cycle of SST and a gradual annual mean surface cooling in the subtropical North Atlantic towards the latest Holocene. The SST response is caused largely by the insolation forcing, while the annual mean cooling is also reinforced by the increased coastal upwelling near the east boundary. The increased upwelling results from a southward retreat of the North Africa monsoon system, and, in turn, an increased northeasterly trade wind. The simulated changes of SST and upwelling are also largely consistent with recent marine proxy records, albeit with a weaker magnitude in the model. A further analysis of the mechanism of the abrupt vegetation collapse suggests that the abrupt vegetation collapse is caused by a strong decadal climate variability in a stable climate-ecosystem, rather than a positive vegetation-climate feedback on a multi-equilibrium system. We propose that strong climate variability can induce a dramatic vegetation collapse with a gradual reduction in precipitation during the mid-Holocene. Our study highlights climate variability as a critical forcing for the vegetation collapse in both models and the real world.

  1. Abrupt change of Antarctic moisture origin at the end of Termination II.

    PubMed

    Masson-Delmotte, V; Stenni, B; Blunier, T; Cattani, O; Chappellaz, J; Cheng, H; Dreyfus, G; Edwards, R L; Falourd, S; Govin, A; Kawamura, K; Johnsen, S J; Jouzel, J; Landais, A; Lemieux-Dudon, B; Lourantou, A; Marshall, G; Minster, B; Mudelsee, M; Pol, K; Röthlisberger, R; Selmo, E; Waelbroeck, C

    2010-07-01

    The deuterium excess of polar ice cores documents past changes in evaporation conditions and moisture origin. New data obtained from the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica Dome C East Antarctic ice core provide new insights on the sequence of events involved in Termination II, the transition between the penultimate glacial and interglacial periods. This termination is marked by a north-south seesaw behavior, with first a slow methane concentration rise associated with a strong Antarctic temperature warming and a slow deuterium excess rise. This first step is followed by an abrupt north Atlantic warming, an abrupt resumption of the East Asian summer monsoon, a sharp methane rise, and a CO(2) overshoot, which coincide within dating uncertainties with the end of Antarctic optimum. Here, we show that this second phase is marked by a very sharp Dome C centennial deuterium excess rise, revealing abrupt reorganization of atmospheric circulation in the southern Indian Ocean sector.

  2. Observation and analysis of abrupt changes in the interplanetary plasma velocity and magnetic field.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Martin, R. N.; Belcher, J. W.; Lazarus, A. J.

    1973-01-01

    This paper presents a limited study of the physical nature of abrupt changes in the interplanetary plasma velocity and magnetic field based on 19 day's data from the Pioneer 6 spacecraft. The period was chosen to include a high-velocity solar wind stream and low-velocity wind. Abrupt events were accepted for study if the sum of the energy density in the magnetic field and velocity changes was above a specified minimum. A statistical analysis of the events in the high-velocity solar wind stream shows that Alfvenic changes predominate. This conclusion is independent of whether steady state requirements are imposed on conditions before and after the event. Alfvenic changes do not dominate in the lower-speed wind. This study extends the plasma field evidence for outwardly propagating Alfvenic changes to time scales as small as 1 min (scale lengths on the order of 20,000 km).

  3. The abrupt changes in the yellowed fibril density in the Linen of Turin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Curciarello, F.; De Leo, V.; Fazio, G.; Mandaglio, G.

    2012-03-01

    The present investigation is an attempt to explain the abrupt changes in the yellowed fibril density (or image intensity) values in the dorsal part of the Shroud of Turin body image. The interested areas are the ones at the base of the shoulders and the buttocks. These rapid changes in the body image intensity are not anomalies of the linen manufacture. They can be explained with the original presence of aromas and/or burial ointments.

  4. Does the trigger for abrupt climate change reside in the ocean or in the atmosphere?

    PubMed

    Broecker, W S

    2003-06-01

    Two hypotheses have been put forward to explain the large and abrupt climate changes that punctuated glacial time. One attributes such changes to reorganizations of the ocean's thermohaline circulation and the other to changes in tropical atmosphere-ocean dynamics. In an attempt to distinguish between these hypotheses, two lines of evidence are examined. The first involves the timing of the freshwater injections to the northern Atlantic that have been suggested as triggers for the global impacts associated with the Younger Dryas and Heinrich events. The second has to do with evidence for precursory events associated with the Heinrich ice-rafted debris layers in the northern Atlantic and with the abrupt Dansgaard-Oeschger warmings recorded in the Santa Barbara Basin.

  5. Does the trigger for abrupt climate change reside in the ocean or in the atmosphere?

    PubMed

    Broecker, W S

    2003-06-01

    Two hypotheses have been put forward to explain the large and abrupt climate changes that punctuated glacial time. One attributes such changes to reorganizations of the ocean's thermohaline circulation and the other to changes in tropical atmosphere-ocean dynamics. In an attempt to distinguish between these hypotheses, two lines of evidence are examined. The first involves the timing of the freshwater injections to the northern Atlantic that have been suggested as triggers for the global impacts associated with the Younger Dryas and Heinrich events. The second has to do with evidence for precursory events associated with the Heinrich ice-rafted debris layers in the northern Atlantic and with the abrupt Dansgaard-Oeschger warmings recorded in the Santa Barbara Basin. PMID:12791974

  6. Agulhas salt-leakage oscillations during abrupt climate changes of the Late Pleistocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marino, Gianluca; Zahn, Rainer; Ziegler, Martin; Purcell, Conor; Knorr, Gregor; Hall, Ian R.; Ziveri, Patrizia; Elderfield, Henry

    2013-09-01

    An ensemble of new, high-resolution records of surface ocean hydrography from the Indian-Atlantic oceanic gateway, south of Africa, demonstrates recurrent and high-amplitude salinity oscillations in the Agulhas Leakage area during the penultimate glacial-interglacial cycle. A series of millennial-scale salinification events, indicating strengthened salt leakage into the South Atlantic, appear to correlate with abrupt changes in the North Atlantic climate and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). This interhemispheric coupling, which plausibly involved changes in the Hadley Cell and midlatitude westerlies that impacted the interocean transport at the tip of Africa, suggests that the Agulhas Leakage acted as a source of negative buoyancy for the perturbed AMOC, possibly aiding its return to full strength. Our finding points to the Indian-to-Atlantic salt transport as a potentially important modulator of the AMOC during the abrupt climate changes of the Late Pleistocene.

  7. Abrupt climate change in West Antarctica and Greenland during the last deglacial warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fudge, T. J.; Steig, E. J.; Brook, E.; Buizert, C.; Conway, H.; Ding, Q.; Markle, B. R.; McConnell, J. R.; Pedro, J. B.; Schoenemann, S. W.; Severinghaus, J. P.; Sigl, M.; Sowers, T. A.; Taylor, K.; Waddington, E. D.

    2013-12-01

    The WAIS Divide ice core is the first Southern Hemisphere record with precision similar to ice cores from Greenland. The annually resolved timescale and small gas-age ice-age difference allow the phasing of climate change in the two hemispheres to be compared with unprecedented precision. We focus on the three abrupt climate changes in Greenland during the deglacial transition and the corresponding changes at WAIS Divide. The onset of the Antarctic Cold Reversal (ACR) is clearly defined in the WAIS Divide record and lagged the Bolling-Allerod (BA) warming by 150×50 years. The phasing of the other two abrupt climate changes cannot be distinguished from synchronous with an uncertainty of ~200 years because the transitions from warming to cooling (or cooling to warming) are not distinct in the WAIS Divide record. The lead-lag relationships of no more than a couple centuries confirm the tight coupling between hemispheres during the deglaciation. The independent timescale of WAIS Divide confirms that meltwater Pulse 1a began near-coincident with the BA and ACR although the lack of direct synchronization between the annually dated ice-core imescales and the radiometrically dated coral timescale prevents the phasing from being known to better than a couple of centuries. A new observation from WAIS Divide is that accumulation increased ~40% between 12.0 and 11.6 ka, with the accumulation increase ending approximately coincident with the warming at the end of the Younger Dryas in Greenland. Other Antarctic ice cores lack timescales with sufficient resolution to identify such abrupt changes so it is unclear how much of Antarctica was affected by the increased accumulation rates. The inter-hemispheric relationships are often limited to a discussion of warming, but the WAIS Divide records suggests that the moisture transport may be another important constraint on the mechanisms that drive abrupt climate change.

  8. Characterizing abrupt changes in the stock prices using a wavelet decomposition method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caetano, Marco Antonio Leonel; Yoneyama, Takashi

    2007-09-01

    Abrupt changes in the stock prices, either upwards or downwards, are usually preceded by an oscillatory behavior with frequencies that tend to increase as the moment of transition becomes closer. The wavelet decomposition methods may be useful for analysis of this oscillations with varying frequencies, because they provide simultaneous information on the frequency (scale) and localization in time (translation). However, in order to use the wavelet decomposition, certain requirements have to be satisfied, so that the linear and cyclic trends are eliminated by standard least squares techniques. The coefficients obtained by the wavelet decomposition can be represented in a graphical form. A threshold can then be established to characterize the likelihood of a short-time abrupt change in the stock prices. Actual data from the São Paulo Stock Exchange (Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo) were used in this work to illustrate the proposed method.

  9. Abrupt changes in alpha-decay systematics as a manifestation of collective nuclear modes

    SciTech Connect

    Qi, C.; Liotta, R. J.; Wyss, R. A.; Andreyev, A. N.; Huyse, M.; Van Duppen, P.

    2010-06-15

    An abrupt change in alpha-decay systematics around the N=126 neutron shell closure is discussed. It is explained as a sudden hindrance of the clustering of the nucleons that eventually form the alpha particle. This is because the clustering induced by the pairing mode acting upon the four nucleons is inhibited if the configuration space does not allow a proper manifestation of the pairing collectivity.

  10. Abrupt climate changes in northwestern Colombia during the Lateglacial and Holocene transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Velasquez Ruiz, C.

    2013-05-01

    High resolution pollen/spores records from Paramo de Frontino (6, 29N, 76, 6W) and Paramo de Belmira (6,42'N, 75,40'W) in Colombia (Velásquez C. and H. Hooghiemstra, Paleobotany, 2012 in press; Velásquez C., et al., in preparation) spanning 17300 and 34000 cal yr BP; are studied for abrupt climatic change and compared with a La Cocha diatom record (Gonzalez, Z, et al., 2012), Frontino and Cariaco Basin (offshore Venezuela) titanium records and a Cariaco sea surface temperatures record (Gorin, G., et al, in preparation; Haug, et al., 2001; Lea D., et al., 2003; respectively); in reference to detected vegetation and climate variations. The most remarkable events occurred at 8200, 9300, 10400, 12000, 13500, 14.5-14.7, 16.2 and 21.4 cal yr BP. Low frequency cycles of 1500-2500 yr are present along the records suggesting that the North Atlantic Bond Cycles are also registered in northwestern South American terrestrial records. Some of these changes were dry while others wet, showing that both patterns "Cold poles, dry tropics" and "Cold poles, wet tropics" can be expressed. It was also found that the estimated temperatures from Paramo de Frontino (pollen based) and sea surface temperatures in Cariaco followed a similar trend during the the Late Glacial and Early Holocene. However, in the case of moisture, the Titanium record (indicative of rainfall) from the Cariaco Basin, the aquatic vegetation pollen and titanium records from Paramo de Frontino and diatoms record from La Cocha lake, showed a clear antiphase behavior during the same periods. Position and shape of Intertropical Convergence Zone are postulated as responsible for this variation. Keywords: palinology, Intertropical Convergence Zone, titanium, Colombia, climatic and vegetation changes.

  11. Consistent simulations of multiple proxy responses to an abrupt climate change event

    PubMed Central

    LeGrande, A. N.; Schmidt, G. A.; Shindell, D. T.; Field, C. V.; Miller, R. L.; Koch, D. M.; Faluvegi, G.; Hoffmann, G.

    2006-01-01

    Isotope, aerosol, and methane records document an abrupt cooling event across the Northern Hemisphere at 8.2 kiloyears before present (kyr), while separate geologic lines of evidence document the catastrophic drainage of the glacial Lakes Agassiz and Ojibway into the Hudson Bay at approximately the same time. This melt water pulse may have been the catalyst for a decrease in North Atlantic Deep Water formation and subsequent cooling around the Northern Hemisphere. However, lack of direct evidence for ocean cooling has lead to speculation that this abrupt event was purely local to Greenland and called into question this proposed mechanism. We simulate the response to this melt water pulse using a coupled general circulation model that explicitly tracks water isotopes and with atmosphere-only experiments that calculate changes in atmospheric aerosol deposition (specifically 10Be and dust) and wetland methane emissions. The simulations produce a short period of significantly diminished North Atlantic Deep Water and are able to quantitatively match paleoclimate observations, including the lack of isotopic signal in the North Atlantic. This direct comparison with multiple proxy records provides compelling evidence that changes in ocean circulation played a major role in this abrupt climate change event. PMID:16415159

  12. Consistent simulations of multiple proxy responses to an abrupt climate change event.

    PubMed

    LeGrande, A N; Schmidt, G A; Shindell, D T; Field, C V; Miller, R L; Koch, D M; Faluvegi, G; Hoffmann, G

    2006-01-24

    Isotope, aerosol, and methane records document an abrupt cooling event across the Northern Hemisphere at 8.2 kiloyears before present (kyr), while separate geologic lines of evidence document the catastrophic drainage of the glacial Lakes Agassiz and Ojibway into the Hudson Bay at approximately the same time. This melt water pulse may have been the catalyst for a decrease in North Atlantic Deep Water formation and subsequent cooling around the Northern Hemisphere. However, lack of direct evidence for ocean cooling has lead to speculation that this abrupt event was purely local to Greenland and called into question this proposed mechanism. We simulate the response to this melt water pulse using a coupled general circulation model that explicitly tracks water isotopes and with atmosphere-only experiments that calculate changes in atmospheric aerosol deposition (specifically (10)Be and dust) and wetland methane emissions. The simulations produce a short period of significantly diminished North Atlantic Deep Water and are able to quantitatively match paleoclimate observations, including the lack of isotopic signal in the North Atlantic. This direct comparison with multiple proxy records provides compelling evidence that changes in ocean circulation played a major role in this abrupt climate change event. PMID:16415159

  13. Abrupt Holocene climate change and potential response to solar forcing in western Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gavin, Daniel G.; Henderson, Andrew C. G.; Westover, Karlyn S.; Fritz, Sherilyn C.; Walker, Ian R.; Leng, Melanie J.; Hu, Feng Sheng

    2011-05-01

    Several abrupt climate events during the Holocene, including the widely documented oscillation at 8.2 thousand years before present (ka), are attributed to changes in the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation. Additional mechanisms, such as interactions between atmospheric circulation, ice-sheet dynamics, and the influence of solar irradiance, also have been proposed to explain abrupt climatic events, but evidence remains elusive. This study presents evidence from multi-proxy analyses on the Holocene sediments of Eleanor Lake, interior British Columbia. Climatic inferences from our decadal-resolution record of biogenic silica (BSi) abundance are supported by changes in diatom and pollen assemblages from the same core and correlations with existing regional climate records. The BSi record reveals abrupt and persistent climatic shifts at 10.2, 9.3, and 8.5 ka, the latter two of which are coeval with major collapses of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. The record also reveals a short-term cooling at 8.2 ka that is distinct from the 8.5 ka event and similar in magnitude to several other late-Holocene coolings. BSi is correlated with solar-irradiance indices ( r = 0.43-0.61), but the correlation is opposite in sign to that expected from direct solar forcing and weakens after 8 ka. Possible mechanisms causing the abrupt and persistent climate changes of the early Holocene include 1) sudden losses of ice and proglacial lake extent, causing a shift in the meridional structure of atmospheric circulation, 2) a possible link between solar minima and El Niño-like conditions that are correlated with warm spring temperature in interior British Columbia, and 3) the influence of solar irradiance variability on the position of the polar jet, possibly via effects on the strength of the glacial anticyclone.

  14. Iceberg discharges and oceanic circulation changes during glacial abrupt climate changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alvarez-Solas, Jorge; Robinson, Alexander; Banderas, Rubén; Montoya, Marisa

    2015-04-01

    Proxy data reveal the existence of episodes of increased deposition of ice-rafted debris in the North Atlantic Ocean during the last glacial period. These are interpreted as massive iceberg discharges mainly from the Laurentide Ice Sheet. Although these have long been attributed to self-sustained ice sheet oscillations, growing evidence points to an active role of the oceanic circulation. Here we will present simulations of the last glacial period carried out with a hybrid ice sheet-ice shelf model. Two mechanisms producing iceberg discharges are compared. First, we reproduce the classic binge-purge by which the iceberg surges are produced thanks to the existence of an internal thermo-mechanical feedback that allows the ice sheet to behave under an oscillatory regime. Second, our ice-sheet model is forced by an oceanic warming index derived from proxy data that accounts for the impact of past ocean circulation changes on ocean temperatures. In this case, the model generates a time series of iceberg calving that agrees with ice-rafted debris records over the past 80 ka. We compare the two theories and discuss their advantages and weaknesses in terms of both the robustness of the physics on which they are based and their comparison with proxies. This comparison highlights the importance of considering past oceanic circulation changes in order to understand the ice-sheet dynamics. However, the ultimate processes determining abrupt changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) remain elusive. Therefore we will also analyze several proposed mechanisms that aims to explain such AMOC reorganizations, focusing on those that do not require freshwater flux forcing.

  15. Regional Abrupt Climate Change in the U.S.: Comparing the Colorado and Columbia River Basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lund, D.

    2001-12-01

    Paleoclimatic evidence and historical experience indicate the earth's climate system is capable of switching rapidly from one quasi-stable state to another. Current global assessments of anthropogenic climate change, however, do not fully account for such abrupt shifts, and instead generally assume the earth's climate will gradually warm over the next several centuries. Integrated assessments of abrupt climate change exist, but on a regional level. Here we discuss two examples where abrupt climate change information was applied to the management of natural resources, including water in the Colorado Basin and salmon in the Columbia Basin. Tree-ring data imply that a massive 20-yr drought occurred in the Colorado Basin during the late sixteenth century. The Severe-Sustained Drought assessment (SSD) evaluated the socioeconomic impacts of this historically-unprecedented drought in the context of modern water allocation policy in the Colorado Basin. Based on semi-structured, open-ended interviews with assessment participants and regional stakeholders, the SSD clarified positions of competing water interests and expanded awareness of potential drought impacts, but did not modify Colorado River water management or policies. Assessment design characteristics had limited influence on effectiveness; the timing of publication and political and legal factors constraining alternative policy options for water distribution were more influential determinants. Absent a crisis, there are few incentives for water managers to implement SSD policy recommendations. The lack of a basin wide commission and long-term climate assessment group in the Colorado Basin appear to limit stakeholder ability to utilize technical information related to abrupt climate change. In the Columbia River Basin, the crisis of declining salmon stocks motivated the consideration of alternative policies which recognize the role of unpredictable and abrupt decadal shifts in oceanic productivity. Although actual

  16. Influence of external forcings on abrupt millennial-scale climate changes: a statistical modelling study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mitsui, Takahito; Crucifix, Michel

    2016-07-01

    The last glacial period was punctuated by a series of abrupt climate shifts, the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. The frequency of DO events varied in time, supposedly because of changes in background climate conditions. Here, the influence of external forcings on DO events is investigated with statistical modelling. We assume two types of simple stochastic dynamical systems models (double-well potential-type and oscillator-type), forced by the northern hemisphere summer insolation change and/or the global ice volume change. The model parameters are estimated by using the maximum likelihood method with the NGRIP Ca^{2+} record. The stochastic oscillator model with at least the ice volume forcing reproduces well the sample autocorrelation function of the record and the frequency changes of warming transitions in the last glacial period across MISs 2, 3, and 4. The model performance is improved with the additional insolation forcing. The BIC scores also suggest that the ice volume forcing is relatively more important than the insolation forcing, though the strength of evidence depends on the model assumption. Finally, we simulate the average number of warming transitions in the past four glacial periods, assuming the model can be extended beyond the last glacial, and compare the result with an Iberian margin sea-surface temperature (SST) record (Martrat et al. in Science 317(5837): 502-507, 2007). The simulation result supports the previous observation that abrupt millennial-scale climate changes in the penultimate glacial (MIS 6) are less frequent than in the last glacial (MISs 2-4). On the other hand, it suggests that the number of abrupt millennial-scale climate changes in older glacial periods (MISs 6, 8, and 10) might be larger than inferred from the SST record.

  17. Abrupt change of Antarctic moisture origin at the end of Termination II

    PubMed Central

    Masson-Delmotte, V.; Stenni, B.; Blunier, T.; Cattani, O.; Chappellaz, J.; Cheng, H.; Dreyfus, G.; Edwards, R. L.; Falourd, S.; Govin, A.; Kawamura, K.; Johnsen, S. J.; Jouzel, J.; Landais, A.; Lemieux-Dudon, B.; Lourantou, A.; Marshall, G.; Minster, B.; Mudelsee, M.; Pol, K.; Röthlisberger, R.; Selmo, E.; Waelbroeck, C.

    2010-01-01

    The deuterium excess of polar ice cores documents past changes in evaporation conditions and moisture origin. New data obtained from the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica Dome C East Antarctic ice core provide new insights on the sequence of events involved in Termination II, the transition between the penultimate glacial and interglacial periods. This termination is marked by a north–south seesaw behavior, with first a slow methane concentration rise associated with a strong Antarctic temperature warming and a slow deuterium excess rise. This first step is followed by an abrupt north Atlantic warming, an abrupt resumption of the East Asian summer monsoon, a sharp methane rise, and a CO2 overshoot, which coincide within dating uncertainties with the end of Antarctic optimum. Here, we show that this second phase is marked by a very sharp Dome C centennial deuterium excess rise, revealing abrupt reorganization of atmospheric circulation in the southern Indian Ocean sector. PMID:20566887

  18. Diagnostic Performance of Ultrasonography for Detection of Abruption and Its Clinical Correlation and Maternal and Foetal Outcome

    PubMed Central

    Vaswani, Babita Prakash; Patange, R.P.; Laddad, Manisha Manish; Bhosale, Rajashree Babasaheb

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Placental abruption complicates about 1% of singleton pregnancies and is an important cause of perinatal mortality and morbidity. Though sensitivity and reliability of ultrasound are poor for detecting or excluding placental abruption, because of the advances in ultrasound resolution, imaging and interpretation, sensitivity of ultrasound is better than what was reported previously. Aim To determine the diagnostic performance of Ultrasonography (USG) for the detection of placental abruption and whether sonographic results correlate with maternal and foetal management and outcome. Materials and Methods Thirty patients with clinical diagnosis of placental abruption were studied in the Obstetrics and Gynaecology Department of Krishna Institute of Medical Sciences, over a period of 6 months. These patients underwent ultrasonography for confirmation. Obstetric and neonatal outcome and sonographic results were compared and reviewed. Sonographic sensitivity and specificity and positive and negative predictive values were calculated. Results Incidence of abruption in present study was 1.56% (28 patients out of 1786 total deliveries). Sensitivity of ultrasonography in the diagnosis of abruption was 57% (CI 37.15%-75.57%) while its specificity was 100% (CI 15.81%-100%) with a positive predictive value of 100% (CI 79.42%-100%) and a 14% (CI 1.78% - 42.83%) negative predictive value. An 87.5% of patients(14 out of 16) with a positive USG finding of abruption had Intrauterine foetal Death (IUD)/still birth while 91.6% of patients (11 out of 12) with negative USG findings of abruption gave birth to babies who required NICU admission. Conclusion Sonography is not sensitive for the detection of placental abruption but it is highly specific. Positive sonographic findings are associated with increased maternal morbidity, require more aggressive obstetric management and it is associated with worse perinatal outcome. In case of a negative USG finding, but a strong clinical

  19. Trend, abrupt change, and periodicity of streamflow in the mainstream of Yellow River.

    PubMed

    He, Bin; Miao, Chiyuan; Shi, Wen

    2013-07-01

    The Yellow River is the second largest river in China. The annual runoff of which is only about 2% of China's total, but contributes to 9% of China's GDP and directly supports 12% of the population. Today, the water shortage in the Yellow River basin has been aggravated due to rapid population growth and global warming. In order to best maximize water resources management, the natural and observed streamflow series from six hydrologic gauging stations (Guide, Lanzhou, Hekou, Sanmenxia, Huayuankou, and Lijin) are obtained, and the linear regression, Mann-Kendall test, and wavelet transform methods were used to detect the characteristic of streamflow variation from 1956 to 2007. The results show that: (1) both the natural streamflow and observed streamflow present a downward trend over the past 52 years, and the trends are intensified downstream; the decreasing rate of observed streamflow is more rapid than that of the natural streamflow; (2) most of the abrupt changes in natural streamflow and observed streamflow appear in the late 1980s to early 1990s through the result of the Mann-Kendall test; and (3) other than the Guide station, the streamflows at the rest of the stations appear to have strongest periodicity of 19-21 years with a 52-year scale. The results of this study imply that less precipitation and warmer climate in the basin are the primary factors that cause this decreasing trend of natural streamflow. Additionally, the rapid ascent of water consumption by human being results in the reduction of observed streamflow further. Furthermore, human activities like reservoir construction, soil and water conservation measures, etc. influence the streamflow as well. It is recommended that the society takes some effective countermeasures to cope with the water shortage.

  20. Abrupt Climate Changes Caused by a Collapse of the North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation: Implications for Optimal Economic Climate Policies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keller, K.; Bradford, D. F.

    2001-12-01

    Climate modelers have recognized the possibility of abrupt climate changes caused by a collapse of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC). This circulation system now warms northwestern Europe and transports carbon dioxide to the deep oceans. The posited THC collapse could produce severe cooling in northwestern Europe, even when general global warming is in progress. Here we use a simple integrated assessment model to investigate the optimal policy response to this risk. Our analysis shows that significantly reducing carbon dioxide emissions may be justified to avoid or delay even small (and arguably realistic) damages from an uncertain THC collapse. Detecting a change in the THC before a potential collapse enables the policy maker to improve climate policy (as measured by an increased per-capita consumption). The considerable economic value of detecting a potential THC collapse early enough has implications for the design of an ocean observation system.

  1. Deep-Sea Biodiversity Response to Abrupt Deglacial and Holocene Climate Changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yasuhara, M.

    2014-12-01

    High-resolution records of microfossil assemblages from deep-sea sediment cores covering the last 20,000 years in the North Atlantic Ocean were investigated to understand biotic responses to abrupt climate changes over decadal-centennial timescales. The results show pervasive control of deep-sea benthic species diversity by rapidly changing climate. Species diversity rapidly increased during abrupt stadial events during the last deglacial and the Holocene interglacial periods. These included the well-known Heinrich 1, the Younger Dryas, and the 8.2 ka events when the strength of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) decreased. In addition, there is evidence for quasi-cyclic changes in biodiversity at a ~1500-year periodicity. Statistical analyses revealed that AMOC-driven bottom-water-temperature variability is a primary influence on deep-sea biodiversity. Our results may portend pervasive, synchronous and sudden ecosystem responses to human-induced changes to climate and ocean circulation in this century. Exceptionally highly resolved fossil records help us to understand past, present and future ecosystem responses to climate changes by bridging the gap between biological and palaeontological time-scales.

  2. Abrupt changes in the southern extent of North Atlantic Deep Water during Dansgaard-Oeschger events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gottschalk, Julia; Skinner, Luke C.; Misra, Sambuddha; Waelbroeck, Claire; Menviel, Laurie; Timmermann, Axel

    2015-12-01

    The glacial climate system transitioned rapidly between cold (stadial) and warm (interstadial) conditions in the Northern Hemisphere. This variability, referred to as Dansgaard-Oeschger variability, is widely believed to arise from perturbations of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Evidence for such changes during the longer Heinrich stadials has been identified, but direct evidence for overturning circulation changes during Dansgaard-Oeschger events has proven elusive. Here we reconstruct bottom water [CO32-] variability from B/Ca ratios of benthic foraminifera and indicators of sedimentary dissolution, and use these reconstructions to infer the flow of northern-sourced deep water to the deep central sub-Antarctic Atlantic Ocean. We find that nearly every Dansgaard-Oeschger interstadial is accompanied by a rapid incursion of North Atlantic Deep Water into the deep South Atlantic. Based on these results and transient climate model simulations, we conclude that North Atlantic stadial-interstadial climate variability was associated with significant Atlantic overturning circulation changes that were rapidly transmitted across the Atlantic. However, by demonstrating the persistent role of Atlantic overturning circulation changes in past abrupt climate variability, our reconstructions of carbonate chemistry further indicate that the carbon cycle response to abrupt climate change was not a simple function of North Atlantic overturning.

  3. Modeling Abrupt Change in Global Sea Level Arising from Ocean - Ice-Sheet Interaction

    SciTech Connect

    Holland, David M

    2011-09-24

    It is proposed to develop, validate, and apply a coupled ocean ice-sheet model to simulate possible, abrupt future change in global sea level. This research is to be carried out collaboratively between an academic institute and a Department of Energy Laboratory (DOE), namely, the PI and a graduate student at New York University (NYU) and climate model researchers at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The NYU contribution is mainly in the area of incorporating new physical processes into the model, while the LANL efforts are focused on improved numerics and overall model development. NYU and LANL will work together on applying the model to a variety of modeling scenarios of recent past and possible near-future abrupt change to the configuration of the periphery of the major ice sheets. The project's ultimate goal is to provide a robust, accurate prediction of future global sea level change, a feat that no fully-coupled climate model is currently capable of producing. This proposal seeks to advance that ultimate goal by developing, validating, and applying a regional model that can simulate the detailed processes involved in sea-level change due to ocean ice-sheet interaction. Directly modeling ocean ice-sheet processes in a fully-coupled global climate model is not a feasible activity at present given the near-complete absence of development of any such causal mechanism in these models to date.

  4. Abrupt Holocene climate change as an important factor for human migration in West Greenland

    PubMed Central

    D’Andrea, William J.; Huang, Yongsong; Fritz, Sherilyn C.; Anderson, N. John

    2011-01-01

    West Greenland has had multiple episodes of human colonization and cultural transitions over the past 4,500 y. However, the explanations for these large-scale human migrations are varied, including climatic factors, resistance to adaptation, economic marginalization, mercantile exploration, and hostile neighborhood interactions. Evaluating the potential role of climate change is complicated by the lack of quantitative paleoclimate reconstructions near settlement areas and by the relative stability of Holocene temperature derived from ice cores atop the Greenland ice sheet. Here we present high-resolution records of temperature over the past 5,600 y based on alkenone unsaturation in sediments of two lakes in West Greenland. We find that major temperature changes in the past 4,500 y occurred abruptly (within decades), and were coeval in timing with the archaeological records of settlement and abandonment of the Saqqaq, Dorset, and Norse cultures, which suggests that abrupt temperature changes profoundly impacted human civilization in the region. Temperature variations in West Greenland display an antiphased relationship to temperature changes in Ireland over centennial to millennial timescales, resembling the interannual to multidecadal temperature seesaw associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. PMID:21628586

  5. Extrinsic regime shifts drive abrupt changes in regeneration dynamics at upper treeline in the Rocky Mountains, U.S.A.

    PubMed

    Elliott, Grant P

    2012-07-01

    Given the widespread and often dramatic influence of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems, it is increasingly common for abrupt threshold changes to occur, yet explicitly testing for climate and ecological regime shifts is lacking in climatically sensitive upper treeline ecotones. In this study, quantitative evidence based on empirical data is provided to support the key role of extrinsic, climate-induced thresholds in governing the spatial and temporal patterns of tree establishment in these high-elevation environments. Dendroecological techniques were used to reconstruct a 420-year history of regeneration dynamics within upper treeline ecotones along a latitudinal gradient (approximately 44-35 degrees N) in the Rocky Mountains. Correlation analysis was used to assess the possible influence of minimum and maximum temperature indices and cool-season (November-April) precipitation on regional age-structure data. Regime-shift analysis was used to detect thresholds in tree establishment during the entire period of record (1580-2000), temperature variables significantly Correlated with establishment during the 20th century, and cool-season precipitation. Tree establishment was significantly correlated with minimum temperature during the spring (March-May) and cool season. Regime-shift analysis identified an abrupt increase in regional tree establishment in 1950 (1950-1954 age class). Coincident with this period was a shift toward reduced cool-season precipitation. The alignment of these climate conditions apparently triggered an abrupt increase in establishment that was unprecedented during the period of record. Two main findings emerge from this research that underscore the critical role of climate in governing regeneration dynamics within upper treeline ecotones. (1) Regional climate variability is capable of exceeding bioclimatic thresholds, thereby initiating synchronous and abrupt changes in the spatial and temporal patterns of tree establishment at broad

  6. Extrinsic regime shifts drive abrupt changes in regeneration dynamics at upper treeline in the Rocky Mountains, U.S.A.

    PubMed

    Elliott, Grant P

    2012-07-01

    Given the widespread and often dramatic influence of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems, it is increasingly common for abrupt threshold changes to occur, yet explicitly testing for climate and ecological regime shifts is lacking in climatically sensitive upper treeline ecotones. In this study, quantitative evidence based on empirical data is provided to support the key role of extrinsic, climate-induced thresholds in governing the spatial and temporal patterns of tree establishment in these high-elevation environments. Dendroecological techniques were used to reconstruct a 420-year history of regeneration dynamics within upper treeline ecotones along a latitudinal gradient (approximately 44-35 degrees N) in the Rocky Mountains. Correlation analysis was used to assess the possible influence of minimum and maximum temperature indices and cool-season (November-April) precipitation on regional age-structure data. Regime-shift analysis was used to detect thresholds in tree establishment during the entire period of record (1580-2000), temperature variables significantly Correlated with establishment during the 20th century, and cool-season precipitation. Tree establishment was significantly correlated with minimum temperature during the spring (March-May) and cool season. Regime-shift analysis identified an abrupt increase in regional tree establishment in 1950 (1950-1954 age class). Coincident with this period was a shift toward reduced cool-season precipitation. The alignment of these climate conditions apparently triggered an abrupt increase in establishment that was unprecedented during the period of record. Two main findings emerge from this research that underscore the critical role of climate in governing regeneration dynamics within upper treeline ecotones. (1) Regional climate variability is capable of exceeding bioclimatic thresholds, thereby initiating synchronous and abrupt changes in the spatial and temporal patterns of tree establishment at broad

  7. Testing massive Arctic sea ice export as a trigger for abrupt climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coletti, Anthony; Condron, Alan; Bradley, Raymond

    2014-05-01

    The discharge of freshwater from glacial lakes to the North Atlantic is repeatedly cited as the main trigger for abrupt centennial to millennial length climate change during the last deglaciation. Broecker et al., (1989) was a proponent of this idea suggesting that abrupt re-routing of pro-glacial lake freshwater to the North Atlantic through the St. Lawrence Valley weakened the strength of the AMOC. Yet, evidence for this is lacking, freshwater estimates in these lakes are relatively small and flood durations are rather short (<5 years), suggesting that floods may not have been the only mechanism driving these climate shifts. Using sophisticated ocean modeling, it has been shown that the release of freshwater originating from the Arctic is more effective at weakening the AMOC compared to freshwater released further south. Here we investigate whether the break-up and mobilization of thick Arctic sea-ice would have supplied enough freshwater to the Nordic Seas to sufficiently cause dampening of the AMOC and hinder NADW formation in the sub-polar North Atlantic. We use numerical climate models to assess 1) the maximum thickness of sea ice that can be formed during glacial periods and the volume of freshwater in the ice, 2) the mechanism which caused the collapse and mobilization of arctic sea-ice into the North Atlantic and 3) the impact of melting sea-ice on global ocean circulation. This hypothesis focuses on the potential impacts of sea-ice as a forcing mechanism for abrupt climate change events on geologic time scales.

  8. Abrupt changes in deep-sea ecosystem structure and biodiversity during the last deglaciation and Holocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yasuhara, M.; Cronin, T. M.; Hunt, G.

    2008-12-01

    Recent research on deep-sea sediment cores suggests that the structure and diversity of deep-sea ecosystems exhibit greater instability over millennial and centennial timescales than previously realized. Centennial scale ecosystem shifts during the last deglaciation (Termination 1, 18-11.5 ka) and the Holocene (11.5 ka to recent) have been discovered using several well-dated deep-sea microfossil records. In the northwestern Atlantic ODP site 1055, weakening of North Atlantic Deep Water production around 10 ka appears to have caused the collapse of the deep-sea benthic ecosystem and reduced diversity at ca. 1800 meters water depth. During this and other Holocene events, diversity as measured by the Shannon Index was reduced by as much as 50%. Several lower resolution records also suggest rapid ecosystem change during Termination 1 in the central and northern North Atlantic region. For example, sites 82-24-4PC (mid-Atlantic Ridge) and M23414 (Rockall Plateau) reveal abrupt diversity shifts probably associated with bottom-water temperature and surface productivity changes. This presentation will assemble data on these and other fossil ostracod records from North Atlantic deep-sea sites to discuss possible causes of abrupt ecosystem changes and the application of Ostracoda to paleoceanography.

  9. Drivers and Dynamics of Ecological Responses to Abrupt Environmental Change on the Early Miocene Oregon Shelf

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Belanger, C. L.

    2012-12-01

    We know that the biosphere responds to abrupt climate change, but know less about the dynamics of those changes and their proximal drivers. Studies of well-preserved fossil time-series spanning past climate events that utilize multiple environmental proxies and examine multiple taxonomic groups can provide critical insight into (a) the specific environmental factors to which the biota respond, (b) the rate and tempo of those responses, and (c) whether taxonomic groups respond similarly or differently to the same stresses. I examine the drivers and dynamics of ecological changes in continental shelf benthic foraminifera and molluscs from the Early Miocene Newport Member of the Astoria Formation in Oregon (20.3-16.3 mya), which spans a time of global warming leading into the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum. Stable isotope (δ18O) data from three species of benthic foraminifera from the Astoria sediments indicate that the region abruptly warmed by 2-4°C approximately 19 mya. In addition, δ13C values from epifaunal and infaunal foraminifera indicate an increase in productivity and organic carbon flux over time. Further, an increase in δ15N from bulk sediment and an increase in sedimentary laminations suggest oxygen levels declined. Multivariate analyses demonstrate a strong correlation between foraminiferal community metrics and δ15N suggesting that the foraminiferal community is tracking oxygenation levels while correlations to productivity changes appear indirect. Molluscan community metrics also have an approximately linear relationship to δ15N. Temperature itself had little direct influence on community composition. Changes in community composition and structure of both the foraminifera and the molluscs are abrupt relative to the duration of community states, but each group responds differently to the climate change. The foraminiferal community increases in the number of species and the evenness of species abundances while the molluscan community decreases in

  10. Evolutionary rescue and adaptation to abrupt environmental change depends upon the history of stress.

    PubMed

    Gonzalez, Andrew; Bell, Graham

    2013-01-19

    Whether evolution will be rapid enough to rescue declining populations will depend upon population size, the supply of genetic variation, the degree of maladaptation and the historical direction of selection. We examined whether the level of environmental stress experienced by a population prior to abrupt environmental change affects the probability of evolutionary rescue (ER). Hundreds of populations of two species of yeast, Saccharomyces cerevisiae and Saccharomyces paradoxus were exposed to a range of sublethal concentrations of salt for approximately a hundred generations before transfer to a concentration of salt lethal to the ancestor (150 g l(-1) NaCl). The fitness of surviving populations of both species was a quadratic function of yield: fitness was greatest for large populations that had been selected on low salt concentrations (less than 20 g l(-1) NaCl) and small populations that had adapted to high salt (more than 80 g l(-1) NaCl). However, differences occurred between species in the probability of ER. The frequency of ER was positively correlated with salt concentration for S. cerevisiae, but negatively correlated with salt concentration in S. paradoxus. These results not only demonstrate that past environmental conditions can determine the probability of ER after abrupt environmental change, but also suggest that there may even be differences between closely related species that are worth further exploration.

  11. Theory and Design Tools For Studies of Reactions to Abrupt Changes in Noise Exposure

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fields, James M.; Ehrlich, Gary E.; Zador, Paul; Shepherd, Kevin P. (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    Study plans, a pre-tested questionnaire, a sample design evaluation tool, a community publicity monitoring plan, and a theoretical framework have been developed to support combined social/acoustical surveys of residents' reactions to an abrupt change in environmental noise, Secondary analyses of more than 20 previous surveys provide estimates of three parameters of a study simulation model; within individual variability, between study wave variability, and between neighborhood variability in response to community noise. The simulation model predicts the precision of the results from social surveys of reactions to noise, including changes in noise. When the study simulation model analyzed the population distribution, noise exposure environments and feasible noise measurement program at a proposed noise change survey site, it was concluded that the site could not yield sufficient precise estimates of human reaction model to justify conducting a survey. Additional secondary analyses determined that noise reactions are affected by the season of the social survey.

  12. Extreme temperatures, foundation species, and abrupt ecosystem change: an example from an iconic seagrass ecosystem.

    PubMed

    Thomson, Jordan A; Burkholder, Derek A; Heithaus, Michael R; Fourqurean, James W; Fraser, Matthew W; Statton, John; Kendrick, Gary A

    2015-04-01

    Extreme climatic events can trigger abrupt and often lasting change in ecosystems via the reduction or elimination of foundation (i.e., habitat-forming) species. However, while the frequency/intensity of extreme events is predicted to increase under climate change, the impact of these events on many foundation species and the ecosystems they support remains poorly understood. Here, we use the iconic seagrass meadows of Shark Bay, Western Australia--a relatively pristine subtropical embayment whose dominant, canopy-forming seagrass, Amphibolis antarctica, is a temperate species growing near its low-latitude range limit--as a model system to investigate the impacts of extreme temperatures on ecosystems supported by thermally sensitive foundation species in a changing climate. Following an unprecedented marine heat wave in late summer 2010/11, A. antarctica experienced catastrophic (>90%) dieback in several regions of Shark Bay. Animal-borne video footage taken from the perspective of resident, seagrass-associated megafauna (sea turtles) revealed severe habitat degradation after the event compared with a decade earlier. This reduction in habitat quality corresponded with a decline in the health status of largely herbivorous green turtles (Chelonia mydas) in the 2 years following the heat wave, providing evidence of long-term, community-level impacts of the event. Based on these findings, and similar examples from diverse ecosystems, we argue that a generalized framework for assessing the vulnerability of ecosystems to abrupt change associated with the loss of foundation species is needed to accurately predict ecosystem trajectories in a changing climate. This includes seagrass meadows, which have received relatively little attention in this context. Novel research and monitoring methods, such as the analysis of habitat and environmental data from animal-borne video and data-logging systems, can make an important contribution to this framework. PMID:25145694

  13. Extreme temperatures, foundation species, and abrupt ecosystem change: an example from an iconic seagrass ecosystem.

    PubMed

    Thomson, Jordan A; Burkholder, Derek A; Heithaus, Michael R; Fourqurean, James W; Fraser, Matthew W; Statton, John; Kendrick, Gary A

    2015-04-01

    Extreme climatic events can trigger abrupt and often lasting change in ecosystems via the reduction or elimination of foundation (i.e., habitat-forming) species. However, while the frequency/intensity of extreme events is predicted to increase under climate change, the impact of these events on many foundation species and the ecosystems they support remains poorly understood. Here, we use the iconic seagrass meadows of Shark Bay, Western Australia--a relatively pristine subtropical embayment whose dominant, canopy-forming seagrass, Amphibolis antarctica, is a temperate species growing near its low-latitude range limit--as a model system to investigate the impacts of extreme temperatures on ecosystems supported by thermally sensitive foundation species in a changing climate. Following an unprecedented marine heat wave in late summer 2010/11, A. antarctica experienced catastrophic (>90%) dieback in several regions of Shark Bay. Animal-borne video footage taken from the perspective of resident, seagrass-associated megafauna (sea turtles) revealed severe habitat degradation after the event compared with a decade earlier. This reduction in habitat quality corresponded with a decline in the health status of largely herbivorous green turtles (Chelonia mydas) in the 2 years following the heat wave, providing evidence of long-term, community-level impacts of the event. Based on these findings, and similar examples from diverse ecosystems, we argue that a generalized framework for assessing the vulnerability of ecosystems to abrupt change associated with the loss of foundation species is needed to accurately predict ecosystem trajectories in a changing climate. This includes seagrass meadows, which have received relatively little attention in this context. Novel research and monitoring methods, such as the analysis of habitat and environmental data from animal-borne video and data-logging systems, can make an important contribution to this framework.

  14. A Sediment Record of Abrupt Lake Level Change in West-Central Minnesota

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mueller, S. B.; Triplett, L. D.; Myrbo, A.; Clotts, R. A.; Russell, J. M.; Shapley, M. D.

    2001-12-01

    Records of historical events preserved in lacustrine sediments are valuable for testing the conceptual models used in paleolimnology. The effects of climatic forcing and internal hydrologic dynamics are typically commingled in the geochemical signatures in sediments. However, Campbell Lake, Becker County, Minnesota, provides a record of abrupt lake-level drop unrelated to climate: in 1915 ditching reduced the lake surface area from 250 to 40 hectares and its average depth from three meters to one meter. We use sediment cores to assess the lake's response to this documented forcing, within the context of natural long-term variability. Existing paleoclimate studies from lakes in the region, as well as the historical record of anthropogenic impact to the lake, also make Campbell Lake a natural site to evaluate models of carbon and sulfur storage and carbon and oxygen stable isotope response to hydrologic changes. Loss-on-ignition and 210Pb chronology show only a slight increase in sedimentation rate following the drainage event, rather than the expected sharp increase due to reworking of littoral sediments. There is a dramatic rise in sedimentation rate around 1960, which may be indirectly related to the 1915 decrease in lake depth. The top 30 cm of sediment contains abundant carbonate stem casts from charophyte algae, indicating a shift to the lake's modern condition of aquatic macrophyte dominance. The time lag between lake-level drop and its manifestation in the sediments suggests that abrupt forcing events may not always be immediately reflected in the paleorecord.

  15. North Atlantic ocean circulation and abrupt climate change during the last glaciation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henry, L. G.; McManus, J. F.; Curry, W. B.; Roberts, N. L.; Piotrowski, A. M.; Keigwin, L. D.

    2016-07-01

    The most recent ice age was characterized by rapid and hemispherically asynchronous climate oscillations, whose origin remains unresolved. Variations in oceanic meridional heat transport may contribute to these repeated climate changes, which were most pronounced during marine isotope stage 3, the glacial interval 25 thousand to 60 thousand years ago. We examined climate and ocean circulation proxies throughout this interval at high resolution in a deep North Atlantic sediment core, combining the kinematic tracer protactinium/thorium (Pa/Th) with the deep water-mass tracer, epibenthic δ13C. These indicators suggest reduced Atlantic overturning circulation during every cool northern stadial, with the greatest reductions during episodic Hudson Strait iceberg discharges, while sharp northern warming followed reinvigorated overturning. These results provide direct evidence for the ocean’s persistent, central role in abrupt glacial climate change.

  16. North Atlantic ocean circulation and abrupt climate change during the last glaciation.

    PubMed

    Henry, L G; McManus, J F; Curry, W B; Roberts, N L; Piotrowski, A M; Keigwin, L D

    2016-07-29

    The most recent ice age was characterized by rapid and hemispherically asynchronous climate oscillations, whose origin remains unresolved. Variations in oceanic meridional heat transport may contribute to these repeated climate changes, which were most pronounced during marine isotope stage 3, the glacial interval 25 thousand to 60 thousand years ago. We examined climate and ocean circulation proxies throughout this interval at high resolution in a deep North Atlantic sediment core, combining the kinematic tracer protactinium/thorium (Pa/Th) with the deep water-mass tracer, epibenthic δ(13)C. These indicators suggest reduced Atlantic overturning circulation during every cool northern stadial, with the greatest reductions during episodic Hudson Strait iceberg discharges, while sharp northern warming followed reinvigorated overturning. These results provide direct evidence for the ocean's persistent, central role in abrupt glacial climate change.

  17. North Atlantic ocean circulation and abrupt climate change during the last glaciation.

    PubMed

    Henry, L G; McManus, J F; Curry, W B; Roberts, N L; Piotrowski, A M; Keigwin, L D

    2016-07-29

    The most recent ice age was characterized by rapid and hemispherically asynchronous climate oscillations, whose origin remains unresolved. Variations in oceanic meridional heat transport may contribute to these repeated climate changes, which were most pronounced during marine isotope stage 3, the glacial interval 25 thousand to 60 thousand years ago. We examined climate and ocean circulation proxies throughout this interval at high resolution in a deep North Atlantic sediment core, combining the kinematic tracer protactinium/thorium (Pa/Th) with the deep water-mass tracer, epibenthic δ(13)C. These indicators suggest reduced Atlantic overturning circulation during every cool northern stadial, with the greatest reductions during episodic Hudson Strait iceberg discharges, while sharp northern warming followed reinvigorated overturning. These results provide direct evidence for the ocean's persistent, central role in abrupt glacial climate change. PMID:27365315

  18. ABRUPT LONGITUDINAL MAGNETIC FIELD CHANGES AND ULTRAVIOLET EMISSIONS ACCOMPANYING SOLAR FLARES

    SciTech Connect

    Johnstone, B. M.; Petrie, G. J. D.; Sudol, J. J.

    2012-11-20

    We have used Transition Region and Coronal Explorer 1600 A images and Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) magnetograms to compare ultraviolet (UV) emissions from the chromosphere to longitudinal magnetic field changes in the photosphere during four X-class solar flares. An abrupt, significant, and persistent change in the magnetic field occurred across more than 10 pixels in the GONG magnetograms for each flare. These magnetic changes lagged the GOES flare start times in all cases, showing that they were consequences and not causes of the flares. Ultraviolet emissions were spatially coincident with the field changes. The UV emissions tended to lag the GOES start times for the flares and led the changes in the magnetic field in all pixels except one. The UV emissions led the photospheric field changes by 4 minutes on average with the longest lead being 9 minutes; however, the UV emissions continued for tens of minutes, and more than an hour in some cases, after the field changes were complete. The observations are consistent with the picture in which an Alfven wave from the field reconnection site in the corona propagates field changes outward in all directions near the onset of the impulsive phase, including downward through the chromosphere and into the photosphere, causing the photospheric field changes, whereas the chromosphere emits in the UV in the form of flare kernels, ribbons, and sequential chromospheric brightenings during all phases of the flare.

  19. Climatic and Societal Causes for Abrupt Environmental Change in the Mediterranean During the Common Era

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mensing, S. A.; Tunno, I.; Sagnotti, L.; Florindo, F.; Noble, P. J.; Archer, C.; Zimmerman, S. R. H.; Pavón-Carrasco, F. J.; Cifnani, G.; Passigli, S.; Piovesan, G.

    2015-12-01

    We compare climatic and societal causes for abrupt environmental change for the last 2000 years in the Rieti Basin, central Italy using high-resolution sedimentary paleoenvironmental proxies, historical documents, and annually resolved independent climate reconstructions of temperature and precipitation. Pollen zones, identified from temporally constrained cluster analysis, coincide with historic periods developed from well-established ceramic sequences corresponding to the Roman Imperial through Late Antique (1 to 600 CE) Early Medieval (600 to 875 CE), Medieval through Late Medieval (875 to 1400 CE), Renaissance and Modern (1400 to 1725 CE), and Contemporary periods (1725 CE to present). Non-metric dimensional scaling (NMDS) ordination showed that each temporal period occupied a unique ecologic space suggesting that a new landscape was created during each successive historic period. During Roman time, between 1 and 500 CE, a modest decline in forest coincides with a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and drier climate; however mesophyllous forest is preserved. Steep decline in forest cover between 850 and 950 CE coincides with positive temperature anomalies in Europe and a positive NAO. Although this would seem to suggest climate as a cause, temperature and precipitation changes are modest and the magnitude and rapidity of the vegetation change suggests climate played a small role. Archaeological evidence from across Europe identifies socioeconomic factors that produced forest clearing. In contrast, cooler temperatures and a negative NAO (increased ppt) appears to have been a catalyst for land abandonment and forest recovery in the 13th to 14th centuries. The NAO produces opposite effects on societies in the eastern and western Mediterranean with the negative phase in 1400 CE leading to cool wet climate and land abandonment in central Italy but an abrupt shift to drier conditions and change from sedentary village life to nomadism in Syria.

  20. Abrupt changes in soil water content variability for various time scales and at different depths at the catchment scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosenbaum, U.; Herbst, M.; Huisman, J. A.; Weuthen, A.; Petersen, T. J.; Western, A. W.; Vereecken, H.; Bogena, H. R.

    2010-12-01

    A current challenge in hydrology is to observe, explain and model soil water content (SWC) patterns across multiple space-time scales. A promising technique for the assessment of SWC patterns at the catchment scale is the wireless sensor network. This technique has the potential to continuously monitor three-dimensional SWC fields with high spatial and temporal resolution, i.e. to detect abrupt changes in SWC patterns. The objective of this study was to analyze the dynamics of SWC patterns at the TERENO forest hydrologic observatory Wüstebach (0.27 km2) for different depths (surface and subsurface soil) and various time scales (annual, seasonal scale and wetting and drying periods). We used the SoilNet wireless network system developed at Forschungszentrum Jülich. SWC measurements were taken every 15 minutes in three depths (5, 20, 50 cm) at 150 locations using EC-5 and 5TE sensors (Decagon Devices). This particular analysis is based on hourly aggregated SWC data measured from 1st of August 2009 to 31st of July 2010. Descriptive statistics and geostatistics were used to investigate the data set depending on soil depth and time scale. We analyzed the mean SWC, standard deviation, coefficient of variation and geostatististical parameters (nugget, sill and range) as a function of time and mean SWC. We found that the dynamics of SWC variability depended on depth, mean soil moisture status, time scale and wetting versus drying period. The magnitude and the variability of the mean SWC, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, and the range decreased with depth depending on soil moisture status. As already observed by others, the standard deviation peaked at medium (critical) SWC, which means that during wetting the standard deviation increased for mean SWC below the critical SWC and decreased above the mean SWC (and vice versa for drying). In addition, we observed that the standard deviation was higher during wetting periods than during drying periods in the

  1. Final Scientific Report for "The Interhemispheric Pattern in 20th Century and Future Abrupt Change in Regional Tropical Rainfall"

    SciTech Connect

    Chiang, John C. H.; Wehner, Michael F.

    2012-10-29

    This is the final scientific report for grant DOE-FG02-08ER64588, "The Interhemispheric Pattern in 20th Century and Future Abrupt Change in Regional Tropical Rainfall."The project investigates the role of the interhemispheric pattern in surface temperature – i.e. the contrast between the northern and southern temperature changes – in driving rapid changes to tropical rainfall changes over the 20th century and future climates. Previous observational and modeling studies have shown that the tropical rainband – the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) over marine regions, and the summer monsoonal rainfall over land – are sensitive to the interhemispheric thermal contrast; but that the link between the two has not been applied to interpreting long-term tropical rainfall changes over the 20th century and future.The specific goals of the project were to i) develop dynamical mechanisms to explain the link between the interhemispheric pattern to abrupt changes of West African and Asian monsoonal rainfall; ii) Undertake a formal detection and attribution study on the interhemispheric pattern in 20th century climate; and iii) assess the likelihood of changes to this pattern in the future. In line with these goals, our project has produced the following significant results: 1.We have developed a case that suggests that the well-known abrupt weakening of the West African monsoon in the late 1960s was part of a wider co-ordinated weakening of the West African and Asian monsoons, and driven from an abrupt cooling in the high latitude North Atlantic sea surface temperature at the same time. Our modeling work suggests that the high-latitude North Atlantic cooling is effective in driving monsoonal weakening, through driving a cooling of the Northern hemisphere that is amplified by positive radiative feedbacks. 2.We have shown that anthropogenic sulfate aerosols may have partially contributed to driving a progressively southward displacement of the Atlantic Intertropical

  2. Abrupt climate-triggered lake ecosystem changes recorded in late glacial lake sediments in northern Poland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Slowinski, M. M.; Zawiska, I.; Ott, F.; Noryskiewicz, A. M.; Apolinarska, K.; Lutynska, M.; Michczynska, D. J.; Brauer, A.; Wulf, S.; Skubala, P.; Blaszkiewicz, M.

    2013-12-01

    The aim of this study was to better understand how local lake ecosystems responded to abrupt climate changes through applying multi-proxy sediment analyses. Therefore, we carried out a detailed and high-resolution case study on the late glacial sediment from the Trzechowskie palaeolake located in the eastern part of the Pomeranian Lakeland, northern Poland. We reconstructed climate induced environmental changes in the paleolake and its catchment using biotic proxies (macrofossils, pollen, cladocera, diatoms, oribatidae mite) and classical geochemical proxies (δ18O, δ13C, loss-on-ignition, CaCO3 content) in combination with high-resolution μ-XRF element core scanning. The core chronology has been established by means of biostratigraphy, AMS 14C-dating on plant macro remains, varve counting in laminated intervals and tephrochronology. The latter was possible by the discovery of the late Allerød Laacher See Tephra for the first time at such eastern location. Biogenic accumulation in the lake started rather late during the lateglacial interstadial at 13903×170 cal yrs BP. The rapid and pronounced cooling at the beginning of the Younger Dryas had a major impact on the lake and its catchment as clearly reflected by both, biotic and geochemical proxies. The depositional environment of the lake abruptly changed from a varved to massive gytjia. The pronounced warming at the demise of Younger Dryas cooling is well-reflected in all environmental indicators but with conspicuous leads and lags reflecting complex responses of lake ecosystems to climate warming. The research was supported by the National Science Centre Poland - NN306085037. This study is a contribution to the Virtual Institute ICLEA (Integrated Climate and Landscape Evolution Analysis) funded by the Helmholtz Association.

  3. Antarctic Forcing of Abrupt Global Climate Change During Isotope Stage 3

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turney, Christian; Jones, Richard; Phipps, Steven; Thomas, Zoë; Hogg, Alan; Kershaw, Peter; Fogwill, Christopher; Palmer, Jonathan; Bronk Ramsey, Christopher; Adolphi, Florian; Muscheler, Raimund; Hughen, Konrad; Staff, Richard; Grosvenor, Mark; Golledge, Nicholas; Haberle, Simon

    2016-04-01

    Contrasting Greenland and Antarctic temperature trends during the late Pleistocene (60,000 to 11,650 years ago) are thought to be driven by imbalances in the rate of formation of North Atlantic and Antarctic Deep Water (the 'bipolar seesaw'), with millennial-scale cooling Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events in the north leading warming in the south. An alternative origin for these abrupt climate shifts, however, is the Southern Hemisphere whereby changes are transmitted globally via atmospheric and/or oceanic teleconnections. Testing these competing hypotheses is challenging given the relatively large uncertainties associated with dating terrestrial, marine and ice core chronologies. Here we use a fully coupled climate system model to investigate whether freshening of the Southern Ocean has extra-regional climate impacts. Focusing on an Isotope Stage 3 cooling event preserved in Antarctic ice cores immediately prior to Antarctic Isotope Maximum 4 (AIM 4; around 29,000 years ago) we undertook an ensemble of transient meltwater simulations. We observe no impact on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) from freshwater hosing in the Southern Ocean but a dramatic warming over the North Atlantic and contrasting precipitation patterns across the low latitudes. Exploiting a new bidecadally-resolved 14C calibration dataset obtained from New Zealand kauri (Agathis australis) we undertook intensive radiocarbon dating and high-resolution multiproxy analysis of the tropical Australia Lynch's Crater terrestrial peat sequence spanning this same period and find a synchronous change in hydroclimate to the purported meltwater event in the Southern Ocean. Our results imply Southern Ocean dynamics played a significant role in driving global climate change across this period via atmospheric teleconnections, with implications for other abrupt events through the late Pleistocene.

  4. Abrupt climate changes for Iceland during the last millennium: Evidence from high resolution sea ice reconstructions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Massé, Guillaume; Rowland, Steven J.; Sicre, Marie-Alexandrine; Jacob, Jeremy; Jansen, Eystein; Belt, Simon T.

    2008-05-01

    A high resolution account of Icelandic sea ice over the last millennium has been constructed using a novel proxy based on the presence in sediments of a biomarker (IP 25) produced by sea ice algae. Comparison with historical sea ice records demonstrates a strong correlation between documented sea ice occurrences and the IP 25 proxy. An excellent agreement is also observed between the IP 25 record and a diatom-based sea surface temperature reconstruction obtained from the same core and the Crowley and Lowery Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction. Using this approach, we provide new historical sea ice data for periods where records are scarce or absent and evidence for abrupt changes to sea ice and/or climate conditions around Iceland during the Little Ice Age.

  5. Laurentide Ice Sheet meltwater and abrupt climate change during the last glaciation

    SciTech Connect

    Hill, H W; Flower, B P; Quinn, T M; Hollander, D J; Guilderson, T P

    2005-10-02

    A leading hypothesis to explain abrupt climate change during the last glacial cycle calls on fluctuations in the margin of the North American Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS), which may have routed freshwater between the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) and North Atlantic, affecting North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) variability and regional climate. Paired measurements of {delta}O and Mg/Ca of foraminiferal calcite from GOM sediments reveal five episodes of LIS meltwater input from 28-45 thousand years ago (ka) that do not match the millennial-scale Dansgaard-Oeschger (D/O) warmings recorded in Greenland ice. We suggest that summer melting of the LIS may occur during Antarctic warming and likely contributed to sea-level variability during Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3).

  6. The chronology of abrupt climate change and Late Upper Palaeolithic human adaptation in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blockley, S. P. E.; Blockley, S. M.; Donahue, R. E.; Lane, C. S.; Lowe, J. J.; Pollard, A. M.

    2006-07-01

    This paper addresses the possible connections between the onset of human expansion in Europe following the Last Glacial Maximum, and the timing of abrupt climate warming at the onset of the Lateglacial (Bölling/Allerød) Interstadial. There are opposing views as to whether or not human populations and activities were directly forced by climate change, based on different comparisons between archaeological and environmental data. We review the geochronological assumptions and approaches on which data comparisons have been attempted in the past, and argue that the uncertainties presently associated with age models based on calibrated radiocarbon dates preclude robust testing of the competing models, particularly when comparing the data to non-radiocarbon-based timescales such as the Greenland ice core records. The paper concludes with some suggestions as to the steps that will be necessary if more robust tests of the models are to be developed in the future. Copyright

  7. Abrupt climate change and transient climates during the Paleogene: a marine perspective

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zachos, J. C.; Lohmann, K. C.; Walker, J. C.; Wise, S. W.

    1993-01-01

    Detailed investigations of high latitude sequences recently collected by the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) indicate that periods of rapid climate change often culminated in brief transient climates, with more extreme conditions than subsequent long term climates. Two examples of such events have been identified in the Paleogene; the first in latest Paleocene time in the middle of a warming trend that began several million years earlier: the second in earliest Oligocene time near the end of a Middle Eocene to Late Oligocene global cooling trend. Superimposed on the earlier event was a sudden and extreme warming of both high latitude sea surface and deep ocean waters. Imbedded in the latter transition was an abrupt decline in high latitude temperatures and the brief appearance of a full size continental ice-sheet on Antarctica. In both cases the climate extremes were not stable, lasting for less than a few hundred thousand years, indicating a temporary or transient climate state. Geochemical and sedimentological evidence suggest that both Paleogene climate events were accompanied by reorganizations in ocean circulation, and major perturbations in marine productivity and the global carbon cycle. The Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum was marked by reduced oceanic turnover and decreases in global delta 13C and in marine productivity, while the Early Oligocene glacial maximum was accompanied by intensification of deep ocean circulation and elevated delta 13C and productivity. It has been suggested that sudden changes in climate and/or ocean circulation might occur as a result of gradual forcing as certain physical thresholds are exceeded. We investigate the possibility that sudden reorganizations in ocean and/or atmosphere circulation during these abrupt transitions generated short-term positive feedbacks that briefly sustained these transient climatic states.

  8. Abrupt pre-Bølling-Allerød warming and circulation changes in the deep ocean.

    PubMed

    Thiagarajan, Nivedita; Subhas, Adam V; Southon, John R; Eiler, John M; Adkins, Jess F

    2014-07-01

    Several large and rapid changes in atmospheric temperature and the partial pressure of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere--probably linked to changes in deep ocean circulation--occurred during the last deglaciation. The abrupt temperature rise in the Northern Hemisphere and the restart of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at the start of the Bølling-Allerød interstadial, 14,700 years ago, are among the most dramatic deglacial events, but their underlying physical causes are not known. Here we show that the release of heat from warm waters in the deep North Atlantic Ocean probably triggered the Bølling-Allerød warming and reinvigoration of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Our results are based on coupled radiocarbon and uranium-series dates, along with clumped isotope temperature estimates, from water column profiles of fossil deep-sea corals in a limited area of the western North Atlantic. We find that during Heinrich stadial 1 (the cool period immediately before the Bølling-Allerød interstadial), the deep ocean was about three degrees Celsius warmer than shallower waters above. This reversal of the ocean's usual thermal stratification pre-dates the Bølling-Allerød warming and must have been associated with increased salinity at depth to preserve the static stability of the water column. The depleted radiocarbon content of the warm and salty water mass implies a long-term disconnect from rapid surface exchanges, and, although uncertainties remain, is most consistent with a Southern Ocean source. The Heinrich stadial 1 ocean profile is distinct from the modern water column, that for the Last Glacial Maximum and that for the Younger Dryas, suggesting that the patterns we observe are a unique feature of the deglacial climate system. Our observations indicate that the deep ocean influenced dramatic Northern Hemisphere warming by storing heat at depth that preconditioned the system for a subsequent abrupt overturning event during the

  9. Abrupt Climate Change in the Arctic (and Beyond): An Update (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alley, R. B.

    2013-12-01

    Our understanding of future Arctic change is informed by the history of past changes, which often have been both large and abrupt. The well-known ice-age events such as the Younger Dryas show how sea-ice changes can amplify forcing to produce very large responses, with wintertime sea ice especially important. These changes are increasingly seen to have played a central role in the ice-age cycling through their global impact on CO2 storage in the deep ocean. The Heinrich events reveal processes of ice-sheet/ocean interaction, some of which are being played out in Greenland and Antarctica now, and which may have large future effects on sea-level rise. The paleoclimatic record plus physical understanding greatly reduce the worst worries about instabilities from methane stored in cold places, but tend to support a role in amplifying future warming. Overall, the very large impacts of past Arctic changes, and the likelihood that future changes under business-as-usual fossil-fuel emissions will be unprecedented in combined size and speed, raise important questions.

  10. Periodicities, Trends and Abrupt Changes in the Vegetation Phenology of South Asia (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Small, C.; Mondal, P.; Jain, M.; Galford, G. L.; DeFries, R. S.

    2013-12-01

    and seasonal phases of single, double and triple cropped areas. The decadal trend EOF and year to year changes in the temporal feature space quantify inter-annual changes - both abrupt and progressive. We use multi-temporal Landsat imagery to vicariously validate inter-annual changes and infer their causes. The dominance of purely periodic phenology is much greater in S. Asia than found in similar analyses of agricultural areas of W. Africa, E. China or S. America. Despite the dominance of purely periodic phenology, inter-annual changes show increasing vegetation abundance in 2 to 3 times as much land area as comparable magnitude of decreasing abundance. Vicarious validation shows most increases as agricultural expansion and intensification while most abrupt decreases are related to channel migration on the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers.

  11. Abrupt state change of river water quality (turbidity): Effect of extreme rainfalls and typhoons.

    PubMed

    Lee, Chih-Sheng; Lee, Yi-Chao; Chiang, Hui-Min

    2016-07-01

    River turbidity is of dynamic nature, and its stable state is significantly changed during the period of heavy rainfall events. The frequent occurrence of typhoons in Taiwan has caused serious problems in drinking water treatment due to extremely high turbidity. The aim of the present study is to evaluate impact of typhoons on river turbidity. The statistical methods used included analyses of paired annual mean and standard deviation, frequency distribution, and moving standard deviation, skewness, and autocorrelation; all clearly indicating significant state changes of river turbidity. Typhoon Morakot of 2009 (recorded high rainfall over 2000mm in three days, responsible for significant disaster in southern Taiwan) is assumed as a major initiated event leading to critical state change. In addition, increasing rate of turbidity in rainfall events is highly and positively correlated with rainfall intensity both for pre- and post-Morakot periods. Daily turbidity is also well correlated with daily flow rate for all the eleven events evaluated. That implies potential prediction of river turbidity by river flow rate during rainfall and typhoon events. Based on analysis of stable state changes, more effective regulations for better basin management including soil-water conservation in watershed are necessary. Furthermore, municipal and industrial water treatment plants need to prepare and ensure the adequate operation of water treatment with high raw water turbidity (e.g., >2000NTU). Finally, methodology used in the present of this study can be applied to other environmental problems with abrupt state changes.

  12. Abrupt state change of river water quality (turbidity): Effect of extreme rainfalls and typhoons.

    PubMed

    Lee, Chih-Sheng; Lee, Yi-Chao; Chiang, Hui-Min

    2016-07-01

    River turbidity is of dynamic nature, and its stable state is significantly changed during the period of heavy rainfall events. The frequent occurrence of typhoons in Taiwan has caused serious problems in drinking water treatment due to extremely high turbidity. The aim of the present study is to evaluate impact of typhoons on river turbidity. The statistical methods used included analyses of paired annual mean and standard deviation, frequency distribution, and moving standard deviation, skewness, and autocorrelation; all clearly indicating significant state changes of river turbidity. Typhoon Morakot of 2009 (recorded high rainfall over 2000mm in three days, responsible for significant disaster in southern Taiwan) is assumed as a major initiated event leading to critical state change. In addition, increasing rate of turbidity in rainfall events is highly and positively correlated with rainfall intensity both for pre- and post-Morakot periods. Daily turbidity is also well correlated with daily flow rate for all the eleven events evaluated. That implies potential prediction of river turbidity by river flow rate during rainfall and typhoon events. Based on analysis of stable state changes, more effective regulations for better basin management including soil-water conservation in watershed are necessary. Furthermore, municipal and industrial water treatment plants need to prepare and ensure the adequate operation of water treatment with high raw water turbidity (e.g., >2000NTU). Finally, methodology used in the present of this study can be applied to other environmental problems with abrupt state changes. PMID:26994797

  13. Response of Airborne Mycoplasma pneumoniae to Abrupt Changes in Relative Humidity

    PubMed Central

    Hatch, M. T.; Wright, D. N.; Bailey, G. D.

    1970-01-01

    The effect of an abrupt change in the relative humidity on the viability of airborne Mycoplasma pneumoniae has been examined. When the microbial aerosols were permitted to equilibrate in air held at either low or high humidities and were then subjected to a sudden shift to a mid-range humidity, a significant loss (>90%) of the colony-forming units per liter of aerosol occurred within 8 min. In contrast, a change in the relative humidity of more than 18% in either direction from a lethal mid-range humidity noticeably decreased the rate of biological decay. Double humidity shifts (i.e., from dry to a mid-range level and then to a high humidity range) were very detrimental, with very few survivors after 8 min. These results indicate that the biological stability of airborne M. pneumoniae may be easily modified by a sudden change in the relative humidity, such as occurs in natural atmospheres. This increased sensitivity brought about by producing changes in relative humidity through the lethal humidity range may provide a method whereby the control of these organisms in naturally contaminated indoor air environments may be eventually achieved. PMID:5437301

  14. Agriculture, Settlement, and Abrupt Climate Change: The 4.2ka BP event in Northern Mesopotamia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ristvet, L.

    2003-12-01

    An abrupt aridification event at 4200 BP has been recorded in 41 paleoclimate proxies in the Old World, from Kilmanjaro, Tanzania to Rajasthan, India, East Asia and the Pacific. This event is particularly well defined for Western Asia, where it has been associated with the abandonment of settlements across the Fertile Crescent and the collapse of states on the Levantine coast and in the dry-farming plains of Northern Mesopotamia, including the Akkadian Empire. Adaptations to climate change are constrained by both local environmental and social factors. Agriculturalists, especially those living in pre-industrial societies, are particularly susceptible to changes in precipitation. The Tell Leilan Regional Survey, which systematically studied sites in a 1650km2 area of Northeastern Syria, records one set of adaptations to this event in an area where dry-farming provided the subsistence base. The survey transect crosses ecotones, from the present 500mm isohyet in the North to the 250mm isohyet in the South, and contains diverse wadi systems, ground water resources, soil profiles, and an ancient marsh/lake-- all of which allow this region to be taken as a microcosm of Northern Mesopotamia. In order to contextualize our study of human response to abrupt climate change, it is necessary to consider how the economic and social systems that were previously in place were transformed by this event. This study attempts to quantify climate change and model its effects on agricultural, pastoral, and settlement systems in Northeastern Syria from 2400-1700 BC. From 2400-2300 BC, optimal climate conditions coincided with the consolidation of an indigenous state. The next century witnessed the Akkadian conquest and imperialization of the Habur plains, which resulted in both the intensification and extensification of agro-production. During the next 300 years, (2200-1900 BC), rainfall plummeted to 70% of the climatic optimum, triggering the abandonment of cities along with their

  15. Impact of abrupt deglacial climate change on tropical Atlantic subsurface temperatures.

    PubMed

    Schmidt, Matthew W; Chang, Ping; Hertzberg, Jennifer E; Them, Theodore R; Ji, Link; J, Link; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L

    2012-09-01

    Both instrumental data analyses and coupled ocean-atmosphere models indicate that Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability is tightly linked to abrupt tropical North Atlantic (TNA) climate change through both atmospheric and oceanic processes. Although a slowdown of AMOC results in an atmospheric-induced surface cooling in the entire TNA, the subsurface experiences an even larger warming because of rapid reorganizations of ocean circulation patterns at intermediate water depths. Here, we reconstruct high-resolution temperature records using oxygen isotope values and Mg/Ca ratios in both surface- and subthermocline-dwelling planktonic foraminifera from a sediment core located in the TNA over the last 22 ky. Our results show significant changes in the vertical thermal gradient of the upper water column, with the warmest subsurface temperatures of the last deglacial transition corresponding to the onset of the Younger Dryas. Furthermore, we present new analyses of a climate model simulation forced with freshwater discharge into the North Atlantic under Last Glacial Maximum forcings and boundary conditions that reveal a maximum subsurface warming in the vicinity of the core site and a vertical thermal gradient change at the onset of AMOC weakening, consistent with the reconstructed record. Together, our proxy reconstructions and modeling results provide convincing evidence for a subsurface oceanic teleconnection linking high-latitude North Atlantic climate to the tropical Atlantic during periods of reduced AMOC across the last deglacial transition. PMID:22908256

  16. Impact of abrupt deglacial climate change on tropical Atlantic subsurface temperatures

    PubMed Central

    Schmidt, Matthew W.; Chang, Ping; Hertzberg, Jennifer E.; Them, Theodore R.; Ji, Link; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.

    2012-01-01

    Both instrumental data analyses and coupled ocean-atmosphere models indicate that Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability is tightly linked to abrupt tropical North Atlantic (TNA) climate change through both atmospheric and oceanic processes. Although a slowdown of AMOC results in an atmospheric-induced surface cooling in the entire TNA, the subsurface experiences an even larger warming because of rapid reorganizations of ocean circulation patterns at intermediate water depths. Here, we reconstruct high-resolution temperature records using oxygen isotope values and Mg/Ca ratios in both surface- and subthermocline-dwelling planktonic foraminifera from a sediment core located in the TNA over the last 22 ky. Our results show significant changes in the vertical thermal gradient of the upper water column, with the warmest subsurface temperatures of the last deglacial transition corresponding to the onset of the Younger Dryas. Furthermore, we present new analyses of a climate model simulation forced with freshwater discharge into the North Atlantic under Last Glacial Maximum forcings and boundary conditions that reveal a maximum subsurface warming in the vicinity of the core site and a vertical thermal gradient change at the onset of AMOC weakening, consistent with the reconstructed record. Together, our proxy reconstructions and modeling results provide convincing evidence for a subsurface oceanic teleconnection linking high-latitude North Atlantic climate to the tropical Atlantic during periods of reduced AMOC across the last deglacial transition. PMID:22908256

  17. Impact of abrupt deglacial climate change on tropical Atlantic subsurface temperatures.

    PubMed

    Schmidt, Matthew W; Chang, Ping; Hertzberg, Jennifer E; Them, Theodore R; Ji, Link; J, Link; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L

    2012-09-01

    Both instrumental data analyses and coupled ocean-atmosphere models indicate that Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability is tightly linked to abrupt tropical North Atlantic (TNA) climate change through both atmospheric and oceanic processes. Although a slowdown of AMOC results in an atmospheric-induced surface cooling in the entire TNA, the subsurface experiences an even larger warming because of rapid reorganizations of ocean circulation patterns at intermediate water depths. Here, we reconstruct high-resolution temperature records using oxygen isotope values and Mg/Ca ratios in both surface- and subthermocline-dwelling planktonic foraminifera from a sediment core located in the TNA over the last 22 ky. Our results show significant changes in the vertical thermal gradient of the upper water column, with the warmest subsurface temperatures of the last deglacial transition corresponding to the onset of the Younger Dryas. Furthermore, we present new analyses of a climate model simulation forced with freshwater discharge into the North Atlantic under Last Glacial Maximum forcings and boundary conditions that reveal a maximum subsurface warming in the vicinity of the core site and a vertical thermal gradient change at the onset of AMOC weakening, consistent with the reconstructed record. Together, our proxy reconstructions and modeling results provide convincing evidence for a subsurface oceanic teleconnection linking high-latitude North Atlantic climate to the tropical Atlantic during periods of reduced AMOC across the last deglacial transition.

  18. Macrosegregation in Al-7Si alloy caused by abrupt cross-section change during directional solidification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghods, M.; Johnson, L.; Lauer, M.; Grugel, R. N.; Tewari, S. N.; Poirier, D. R.

    2016-09-01

    Hypoeutectic Al-7 wt .% Si alloys were directionally solidified vertically downward in cylindrical molds that incorporated an abrupt cross-section decrease (9.5 mm to 3.2 mm diameter) which, after 5 cm, reverted back to 9.5 mm diameter in a Bridgman furnace; two constant growth speeds and thermal gradients were investigated. Thermosolutal convection and cross-section-change-induced shrinkage flow effects on macrosegregation were investigated. Dendrite clustering and extensive radial macrosegregation was seen, particularly in the larger cross-sections, before contraction and after expansion, this more evident at the lower growth speed. This alloy shows positive longitudinal macrosegregation near cross-section decrease followed by negative macrosegregation right after it; the extent of macrosegregation, however, decreases with increasing growth speed. Primary dendrite steepling intensified as solidification proceeded into the narrower section and negative longitudinal macrosegregation was seen on the re-entrant shelves at expansion. A two-dimensional model accounting for both shrinkage and thermo-solutal convection was used to simulate solidification and the resulting mushy-zone steepling and macrosegregation. The experimentally observed longitudinal and radial macrosegregation associated with the cross-section changes during directional solidification of an Al-7Si alloy is well captured by the numerical simulations.

  19. Slowing down of North Pacific climate variability and its implications for abrupt ecosystem change.

    PubMed

    Boulton, Chris A; Lenton, Timothy M

    2015-09-15

    Marine ecosystems are sensitive to stochastic environmental variability, with higher-amplitude, lower-frequency--i.e., "redder"--variability posing a greater threat of triggering large ecosystem changes. Here we show that fluctuations in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index have slowed down markedly over the observational record (1900-present), as indicated by a robust increase in autocorrelation. This "reddening" of the spectrum of climate variability is also found in regionally averaged North Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs), and can be at least partly explained by observed deepening of the ocean mixed layer. The progressive reddening of North Pacific climate variability has important implications for marine ecosystems. Ecosystem variables that respond linearly to climate forcing will have become prone to much larger variations over the observational record, whereas ecosystem variables that respond nonlinearly to climate forcing will have become prone to more frequent "regime shifts." Thus, slowing down of North Pacific climate variability can help explain the large magnitude and potentially the quick succession of well-known abrupt changes in North Pacific ecosystems in 1977 and 1989. When looking ahead, despite model limitations in simulating mixed layer depth (MLD) in the North Pacific, global warming is robustly expected to decrease MLD. This could potentially reverse the observed trend of slowing down of North Pacific climate variability and its effects on marine ecosystems.

  20. Slowing down of North Pacific climate variability and its implications for abrupt ecosystem change

    PubMed Central

    Boulton, Chris A.; Lenton, Timothy M.

    2015-01-01

    Marine ecosystems are sensitive to stochastic environmental variability, with higher-amplitude, lower-frequency––i.e., “redder”––variability posing a greater threat of triggering large ecosystem changes. Here we show that fluctuations in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index have slowed down markedly over the observational record (1900–present), as indicated by a robust increase in autocorrelation. This “reddening” of the spectrum of climate variability is also found in regionally averaged North Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs), and can be at least partly explained by observed deepening of the ocean mixed layer. The progressive reddening of North Pacific climate variability has important implications for marine ecosystems. Ecosystem variables that respond linearly to climate forcing will have become prone to much larger variations over the observational record, whereas ecosystem variables that respond nonlinearly to climate forcing will have become prone to more frequent “regime shifts.” Thus, slowing down of North Pacific climate variability can help explain the large magnitude and potentially the quick succession of well-known abrupt changes in North Pacific ecosystems in 1977 and 1989. When looking ahead, despite model limitations in simulating mixed layer depth (MLD) in the North Pacific, global warming is robustly expected to decrease MLD. This could potentially reverse the observed trend of slowing down of North Pacific climate variability and its effects on marine ecosystems. PMID:26324900

  1. Abrupt change of sedimentation rate recorded in lacustrine sediment from coastal lakes, Nankai subduction zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matsuoka, H.; Okamura, M.

    2014-12-01

    Nankai earthquakes are plate-boundary earthquakes associated with the Nankai subduction zone that have occurred repeatedly during historic times. In order to reveal pre-historical evidence of Nankai earthquakes, we investigated lacustrine sediments of small lakes on the coastal area of Shikoku Island, along the Nankai Trough. We studied over 150 piston- and vibro- core samples from 20 small lakes in this region, and found out many sedimentary evidences of tsunami events. Only three small lakes, Tadasu-Ike, Kaniga-Ike and Kamoda- Ike have over 5000 yaers sedimentary record. Tadasu-Ike and Kaniga-Ike have kept ten and several times tsunami events, on the other hand only one event preserved in though 6500 years sediments of Kamoda- Ike. These three small lakes have characteristic sedimentary conditions. Abrupt change of sedimentation rate was recorded 1-2 times through 5000-7000 years their history. This change was thought to reflect subsidence of the surrounding area. Co-seismic subsidence and gradual uplift during inter-seismic period are well known in this region. Several thousand-year cycle subsidences are assumed in addition to subsidences accompanied with 100-year cycle earthquakes.

  2. North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and Abrupt Climate Change through the Last Glaciation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henry, G., III; McManus, J. F.; Curry, W. B.; Keigwin, L. D.; Giosan, L.

    2014-12-01

    The climate of the glacial North Atlantic was punctuated by catastrophic discharges of icebergs (Heinrich events), as well as by more mysterious, abrupt warming events associated with Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillations. These events are suspected to be related to changes in AMOC and its influence on heat transport and the regional and global heat budget. Investigation of these rapid oscillations is often limited by the resolution of sediment records. High accumulation rates at our study site (33.69°N, 57.58°W, 4583m water depth) on the Bermuda Rise allow improved resolution by one to two orders of magnitude. Cores CDH19 (38.81m) and CDH13 (36.70m), were recovered during KNR191, the initial deployment of the RV Knorr's long coring system developed at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution with support from the NSF. These cores contain high quality sediment sections that allow high resolution studies extending through the last glacial cycle at a key location for monitoring past oceanographic and climatic variability. Here we present detailed multi-proxy data from Bermuda Rise sediments reflecting deep ocean chemistry and dynamics of the last glaciation, and combine them with published data to produce a continuous, high resolution record spanning the last 70,000 years. CaCO3 burial fluxes, foraminifera stable isotopes, and sedimentary uranium-series disequilibria (including seawater-derived 231Pa /230Th), display coherent, complementary variability throughout the last glaciation. Glacial values in each proxy are consistent with reduced ventilation and overturning compared to the Holocene, with intervals that indicate substantial millennial reductions in each, and others when they briefly approach Holocene levels. In multiple instances, particularly spanning interstadials eight through twelve (IS8-IS12) our results are consistent with an abrupt, subcentennial acceleration in the export of excess 231Pa from the North Atlantic during stadial-interstadial transitions

  3. Abrupt pre-Bølling-Allerød warming and circulation changes in the deep ocean.

    PubMed

    Thiagarajan, Nivedita; Subhas, Adam V; Southon, John R; Eiler, John M; Adkins, Jess F

    2014-07-01

    Several large and rapid changes in atmospheric temperature and the partial pressure of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere--probably linked to changes in deep ocean circulation--occurred during the last deglaciation. The abrupt temperature rise in the Northern Hemisphere and the restart of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at the start of the Bølling-Allerød interstadial, 14,700 years ago, are among the most dramatic deglacial events, but their underlying physical causes are not known. Here we show that the release of heat from warm waters in the deep North Atlantic Ocean probably triggered the Bølling-Allerød warming and reinvigoration of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Our results are based on coupled radiocarbon and uranium-series dates, along with clumped isotope temperature estimates, from water column profiles of fossil deep-sea corals in a limited area of the western North Atlantic. We find that during Heinrich stadial 1 (the cool period immediately before the Bølling-Allerød interstadial), the deep ocean was about three degrees Celsius warmer than shallower waters above. This reversal of the ocean's usual thermal stratification pre-dates the Bølling-Allerød warming and must have been associated with increased salinity at depth to preserve the static stability of the water column. The depleted radiocarbon content of the warm and salty water mass implies a long-term disconnect from rapid surface exchanges, and, although uncertainties remain, is most consistent with a Southern Ocean source. The Heinrich stadial 1 ocean profile is distinct from the modern water column, that for the Last Glacial Maximum and that for the Younger Dryas, suggesting that the patterns we observe are a unique feature of the deglacial climate system. Our observations indicate that the deep ocean influenced dramatic Northern Hemisphere warming by storing heat at depth that preconditioned the system for a subsequent abrupt overturning event during the

  4. Abrupt along-strike change in tectonic style: San Andreas Fault zone, San Francisco Peninsula

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zoback, Mary Lou; Jachens, Robert C.; Olson, Jean A.

    1999-05-01

    Seismicity and high-resolution aeromagnetic data are used to define an abrupt change from compressional to extensional tectonism within a 10- to 15-km-wide zone along the San Andreas fault on the San Francisco Peninsula and offshore from the Golden Gate. This 100-km-long section of the San Andreas fault includes the hypocenter of the Mw = 7.8 1906 San Francisco earthquake as well as the highest level of persistent microseismicity along that ˜470-km-long rupture. We define two distinct zones of deformation along this stretch of the fault using well-constrained relocations of all post-1969 earthquakes based a joint one-dimensional velocity/hypocenter inversion and a redetermination of focal mechanisms. The southern zone is characterized by thrust- and reverse-faulting focal mechanisms with NE trending P axes that indicate "fault-normal" compression in 7- to 10-km-wide zones of deformation on both sides of the San Andreas fault. A 1- to 2-km-wide vertical zone beneath the surface trace of the San Andreas is characterized by its almost complete lack of seismicity. The compressional deformation is consistent with the young, high topography of the Santa Cruz Mountains/Coast Ranges as the San Andreas fault makes a broad restraining left bend (˜10°) through the southernmost peninsula. A zone of seismic quiescence ˜15 km long separates this compressional zone to the south from a zone of combined normal-faulting and strike-slip-faulting focal mechanisms (including a ML = 5.3 earthquake in 1957) on the northernmost peninsula and offshore on the Golden Gate platform. Both linear pseudogravity gradients, calculated from the aeromagnetic data, and seismic reflection data indicate that the San Andreas fault makes an abrupt ˜3-km right step less than 5 km offshore in this northern zone. A similar right-stepping (dilatational) geometry is also observed for the subparallel San Gregorio fault offshore. Persistent seismicity and extensional tectonism occur within the San Andreas

  5. Abrupt along-strike change in tectonic style: San Andreas fault zone, San Francisco Peninsula

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Zoback, M.L.; Jachens, R.C.; Olson, J.A.

    1999-01-01

    Seismicity and high-resolution aeromagnetic data are used to define an abrupt change from compressional to extensional tectonism within a 10- to 15-km-wide zone along the San Andreas fault on the San Francisco Peninsula and offshore from the Golden Gate. This 100-km-long section of the San Andreas fault includes the hypocenter of the Mw = 7.8 1906 San Francisco earthquake as well as the highest level of persistent microseismicity along that ???470-km-long rupture. We define two distinct zones of deformation along this stretch of the fault using well-constrained relocations of all post-1969 earthquakes based a joint one-dimensional velocity/hypocenter inversion and a redetermination of focal mechanisms. The southern zone is characterized by thrust- and reverse-faulting focal mechanisms with NE trending P axes that indicate "fault-normal" compression in 7- to 10-km-wide zones of deformation on both sides of the San Andreas fault. A 1- to 2-km-wide vertical zone beneath the surface trace of the San Andreas is characterized by its almost complete lack of seismicity. The compressional deformation is consistent with the young, high topography of the Santa Cruz Mountains/Coast Ranges as the San Andreas fault makes a broad restraining left bend (???10??) through the southernmost peninsula. A zone of seismic quiescence ???15 km long separates this compressional zone to the south from a zone of combined normal-faulting and strike-slip-faulting focal mechanisms (including a ML = 5.3 earthquake in 1957) on the northernmost peninsula and offshore on the Golden Gate platform. Both linear pseudo-gravity gradients, calculated from the aeromagnetic data, and seismic reflection data indicate that the San Andreas fault makes an abrupt ???3-km right step less than 5 km offshore in this northern zone. A similar right-stepping (dilatational) geometry is also observed for the subparallel San Gregorio fault offshore. Persistent seismicity and extensional tectonism occur within the San

  6. Abrupt decadal-to-centennial hydroclimate changes in the Mediterranean region since the mid-Holocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, Hsun-Ming; Shen, Chuan-Chou; Jiang, Xiuyang; Wang, Yongjin; Mii, Horng-Sheng; Michel, Véronique

    2016-04-01

    A series of severe drought events in the Mediterranean region over the past two decades has posed a threat on both human society and biosystem. Holocene hydrological dynamics can offer valuable clues for understanding future climate and making proper adaption strategy. Here, we present a decadal-resolved stalagmite record documenting various hydroclimatic fluctuations in the north central Mediterranean region since the middle Holocene. The stalagmite δ18O sequence shows dramatic instability, characterized by abrupt shifts between dry and wet conditions <50 years. The timing of regional culture demises, such as the Hittite Kingdom, Mycenaean Greece, Akkadian Empire, Egyptian Old Kingdom, and Uruk, occurred during the drought events, suggesting an important role of climate impact on human civilization. The unstable hydroclimate evolution is related to transferred North Atlantic Oscillation states. Rate of rapid transfer of precipitation patterns, which can be pin-pointed by our good chronology, improves the prediction to future climate changes in North Atlantic region. We also found that a strong correlation between this stalagmite δ18O and sea surface temperatures especially in Pacific Ocean. This agreement suggests a distant interregional climate teleconnection.

  7. Abrupt change in the dip of the subducting plate beneath north Chile

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Contreras-Reyes, E.; Jara, J.; Grevemeyer, I.; Ruiz, S.; Carrizo, D.

    2012-05-01

    No large tsunamigenic earthquake has occurred in north Chile since 1877 and the region has been largely recognized as a mature seismic gap. At the southern end of the seismic gap, the 2007 Mw7.7 Tocopilla earthquake ruptured the deeper seismogenic interface, whereas the coupled upper interface remained unbroken. Seismological studies onshore show a gently varying dip of 20° to 30° of the downgoing Nazca plate, which extends from the trench down to depths of 40-50km. Here, we study the lithospheric structure of the subduction zone of north Chile at about 22°S, using wide-angle seismic refraction and reflection data from land and sea, complemented by hypocentre data recorded during the 2007 Tocopilla aftershocks. Our data document an abrupt increase in the dip of the subducting plate, from less than 10° to about 22°, at a depth of approximately 20km. The distribution of the 2007 aftershocks indicates that the change in dip acted as a barrier for the propagation of the 2007 earthquake towards the trench, which, in turn, indicates that the subduction megathrust is not only segmented along the trench, but also in the direction of the dip. We propose that large-magnitude tsunamigenic earthquakes must cross the barrier and rupture the entire seismogenic zone.

  8. Stalagmite-inferred abrupt hydroclimate changes in the central Mediterranean over the past 6500 years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, H. M.; Shen, C. C.; Jiang, X.; Wang, Y.; Mii, H. S.

    2015-12-01

    Mediterranean, as one of the global climate change "hot spots", was faced with severe drought over the recent decades. Investigation of regional paleo-hydroclimate evolution helps improve climate projection and adaption strategy. Here, we present a new decadal-resolved record documenting hydroclimate in the central Mediterranean from an Italian stalagmite since 6500 years ago. Eighty high-precision absolute U-Th dates with 2-sigma uncertainty better than ±20 years and 560 oxygen isotopic ratio data show several abrupt drying events with an average of 600 mm precipitation decrease in less than 80 years since the mid-Holocene. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) could dominantly govern the centennial-scale hydroclimate variability, especially for a period of 4500 to 2000 years ago. Total solar irradiance (TSI) also partially affected this regional precipitation. The obscure relationship between stalagmite and global/local mean surface temperature sequences, in contradict to previous studies, implies complex internal feedback of global warming and atmospheric circulation in the Mediterranean. Our result suggests that the twenty-first century Mediterranean drying trend is significant but not unprecedented in the past six thousand years.

  9. The Paleoceanography of Cariaco Basin and its Relationship to Deglacial and Abrupt Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peterson, L. C.; Yurco, L. N.; Gibson, K.; Haug, G. H.; Deplazes, G.; Black, D. E.; Thunell, R.

    2011-12-01

    wet interval in the northern tropics of South America that falls within the enigmatic Late Glacial period known as the "Mystery Interval". Spanning the Bølling/Allerød and Younger Dryas, an abrupt pulse of biogenic opal accumulation is observed that may reflect advection of silica-rich deep waters to the surface as a result of deep water reorganization. Though Cariaco sea surface temperatures appear to mimic changes in Greenland, oxygen isotopes in planktic foraminifers closely resemble Antarctic air temperature records during the deglaciation, suggesting that a complex mixture of hemispheric signals is preserved in the southern Caribbean.

  10. Reducing The Risk Of Abrupt Climate Change: Emission Corridors Preserving The Thermohaline Circulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zickfeld, K.

    Paleo-reconstructions have shown that large and abrupt climate changes have occurred throughout the last ice-age cycles. This evidence, supplemented by insights into the complex and nonlinear nature of the climate system, gives raise to the concern that anthropogenic forcing may trigger such events in the future. A prominent example for such a potential climatic shift is the collapse of the North Atlantic thermohaline circu- lation (THC), which would cause a major cooling of the northern North Atlantic and north-western Europe and considerable regional sea level rise, with possibly severe consequences on, e.g., fisheries, agriculture and ecosystems. In this paper we present emission corridors for the 21st century preserving the THC. Emission corridors embrace the range of future emissions beyond which either the THC collapses or the mitigation burden becomes intolerable. They are calculated along the conceptual and methodological lines of the tolerable windows approach. We investigate the sensitivity of the emission corridors to the main uncertain parame- ters (climate and North Atlantic hydrological sensitivities as well as emissions of non CO_2 greenhouse gases). Results show a high dependence of the size of the emis- sion corridors on hydrological and climate sensitivities. For the best-guess values of both parameters we find that the emission corridors are wider than the range spanned by the SRES emissions scenarios. Thus, no immediate mitigation seems necessary in order to preserve the THC. For high but still realistic values of the sensitivities, however, even the low SRES emissions scenarios transgress the corridor boundaries. These findings imply that under 'business as usual' a non-negligible risk of either a THC collapse or an intolerable mitigation burden exists.

  11. Modeling past abrupt climate changes: driven oscillators and synchronization phenomena in Paleoclimate theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marchionne, Arianna

    2014-05-01

    According to Milankovitch theory of ice ages, summer insolation at high northern latitudes drives the glacial cycles, i.e. the growth and reduction of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets, and there is evidence that astronomical forcing controls indeed the timing of Pleistocene glacial-interglacial cycles. However, the δ18Otime series (the δ18O is a proxy for global ice volume) available for the last few million years reveal a non-linear response of the climate to the external forcing: transitions from the glacial to the interglacial states occur more rapidly than the transitions from the interglacials to the glacials, resulting in the so-called saw-tooth shape of the signal. These terminations were very abrupt compared to the smooth changes in insolation. Moreover, insolation alone cannot explain the Mid-Pleistocene transition. During this event, occurred about one million years ago, the dominant 41 kyr glacial cycles, were replaced by longer saw-tooth shaped cycles with a time scale around 100 kyr. The asymmetry in the oscillations indicates a non-linear response to the orbital forcing, expressed through a bifurcation, or tipping point. As an introduction to the problem, we studied simple driven oscillators that can exhibit asymmetric oscillations between the glacial and interglacial states under the effect of the astronomical forcing, such as the Van der Pool and the Duffing oscillators. In order to understand how these simple low-dimensional models enter theories of ice ages and rapid events, we studied synchronization phenomena between simple driven oscillators and astronomical forcing, focusing on distinguishing between the so-called resonance scenario and the so-called phase locking scenario. We next examined the possible mechanisms for the Mid-Pleistocene transition. Here we show that the transition could be explained as a result of frequency-locking to the external forcing. This change can be interpreted as a result of an internal change in climate response

  12. Abrupt summer warming and changes in temperature extremes over Northeast Asia since the mid-1990s: Drivers and physical processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dong, Buwen; Sutton, Rowan T.; Chen, Wei; Liu, Xiaodong; Lu, Riyu; Sun, Ying

    2016-09-01

    This study investigated the drivers and physical processes for the abrupt decadal summer surface warming and increases in hot temperature extremes that occurred over Northeast Asia in the mid-1990s. Observations indicate an abrupt increase in summer mean surface air temperature (SAT) over Northeast Asia since the mid-1990s. Accompanying this abrupt surface warming, significant changes in some temperature extremes, characterized by increases in summer mean daily maximum temperature (Tmax), daily minimum temperature (Tmin), annual hottest day temperature (TXx), and annual warmest night temperature (TNx) were observed. There were also increases in the frequency of summer days (SU) and tropical nights (TR). Atmospheric general circulation model experiments forced by changes in sea surface temperature (SST)/sea ice extent (SIE), anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, and anthropogenic aerosol (AA) forcing, relative to the period 1964-93, reproduced the general patterns of observed summer mean SAT changes and associated changes in temperature extremes, although the abrupt decrease in precipitation since the mid-1990s was not simulated. Additional model experiments with different forcings indicated that changes in SST/SIE explained 76% of the area-averaged summer mean surface warming signal over Northeast Asia, while the direct impact of changes in GHG and AA explained the remaining 24% of the surface warming signal. Analysis of physical processes indicated that the direct impact of the changes in AA (through aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions), mainly related to the reduction of AA precursor emissions over Europe, played a dominant role in the increase in TXx and a similarly important role as SST/SIE changes in the increase in the frequency of SU over Northeast Asia via AA-induced coupled atmosphere-land surface and cloud feedbacks, rather than through a direct impact of AA changes on cloud condensation nuclei. The modelling results also imply

  13. Abrupt Climate Change Caused by Global Fires from a Large Meteor Impact

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bardeen, C.; Toon, O. B.; Garcia, R. R.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Wolf, E. T.

    2015-12-01

    Global or near-global fires like those that are thought to have occurred after the Chicxulub asteroid impact are associated with abrupt climate change and the K-Pg mass extinction event. Using the Community Earth System Model (CESM), a three-dimensional coupled climate model with interactive chemistry, we have simulated the climate response to global fires assuming a burden of 70,000 Tg, as estimated from the K-Pg layer sediments by Wolbach et al. (1988). Soot aerosols are lofted by solar heating and remain in the atmosphere for about 6 years, warming the stratosphere by more than 240 K and suppressing completely solar radiation at the surface for 2 years. Global average land surface temperatures cool by -28 K after 3 years and ocean temperatures by -11 K after 4 years. Precipitation is reduced by 80 % for 5 years, and the ozone column is reduced by 80 % for 4 years. The tropical tropopause cold point disappears for a few years, leading to water vapor mixing ratios of > 1000 ppmv in the stratosphere. There is a rapid recovery around year 6, when the soot is removed by wet deposition as stratospheric water condenses and precipitates, but this is followed by a peak in the UV Index in the tropics of over 40 before stratospheric ozone recovers. Ocean temperature cools by more than -2 K to a depth of 300 m, and sea ice develops in the Black Sea, Caspian Sea, and Baltic Sea. Global fires, two years of darkness, extreme surface cooling, significant ocean cooling, increases in sea ice extent and a large short-term increase in UV Index would have been catastrophic for many life forms. This work is the first step in an effort to simulate the climatic effects of all of the aerosols and gases that may have been generated by the Chicxulub impact in a model that has been configured for late-Cretaceous conditions to help assess the role of the Chicxulub impact in the K-Pg extinction.

  14. Reducing abrupt climate change risk using the Montreal Protocol and other regulatory actions to complement cuts in CO2 emissions.

    PubMed

    Molina, Mario; Zaelke, Durwood; Sarma, K Madhava; Andersen, Stephen O; Ramanathan, Veerabhadran; Kaniaru, Donald

    2009-12-01

    Current emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) have already committed the planet to an increase in average surface temperature by the end of the century that may be above the critical threshold for tipping elements of the climate system into abrupt change with potentially irreversible and unmanageable consequences. This would mean that the climate system is close to entering if not already within the zone of "dangerous anthropogenic interference" (DAI). Scientific and policy literature refers to the need for "early," "urgent," "rapid," and "fast-action" mitigation to help avoid DAI and abrupt climate changes. We define "fast-action" to include regulatory measures that can begin within 2-3 years, be substantially implemented in 5-10 years, and produce a climate response within decades. We discuss strategies for short-lived non-CO(2) GHGs and particles, where existing agreements can be used to accomplish mitigation objectives. Policy makers can amend the Montreal Protocol to phase down the production and consumption of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) with high global warming potential. Other fast-action strategies can reduce emissions of black carbon particles and precursor gases that lead to ozone formation in the lower atmosphere, and increase biosequestration, including through biochar. These and other fast-action strategies may reduce the risk of abrupt climate change in the next few decades by complementing cuts in CO(2) emissions.

  15. Reducing abrupt climate change risk using the Montreal Protocol and other regulatory actions to complement cuts in CO2 emissions

    PubMed Central

    Molina, Mario; Zaelke, Durwood; Sarma, K. Madhava; Andersen, Stephen O.; Ramanathan, Veerabhadran; Kaniaru, Donald

    2009-01-01

    Current emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) have already committed the planet to an increase in average surface temperature by the end of the century that may be above the critical threshold for tipping elements of the climate system into abrupt change with potentially irreversible and unmanageable consequences. This would mean that the climate system is close to entering if not already within the zone of “dangerous anthropogenic interference” (DAI). Scientific and policy literature refers to the need for “early,” “urgent,” “rapid,” and “fast-action” mitigation to help avoid DAI and abrupt climate changes. We define “fast-action” to include regulatory measures that can begin within 2–3 years, be substantially implemented in 5–10 years, and produce a climate response within decades. We discuss strategies for short-lived non-CO2 GHGs and particles, where existing agreements can be used to accomplish mitigation objectives. Policy makers can amend the Montreal Protocol to phase down the production and consumption of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) with high global warming potential. Other fast-action strategies can reduce emissions of black carbon particles and precursor gases that lead to ozone formation in the lower atmosphere, and increase biosequestration, including through biochar. These and other fast-action strategies may reduce the risk of abrupt climate change in the next few decades by complementing cuts in CO2 emissions. PMID:19822751

  16. Precise interpolar phasing of abrupt climate change during the last ice age

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    ,; Buizert, Christo; Adrian, Betty M.; Ahn, Jinho; Albert, Mary; Alley, Richard B.; Baggenstos, Daniel; Bauska, Thomas K.; Bay, Ryan C.; Bencivengo, Brian B.; Bentley, Charles R.; Brook, Edward J.; Chellman, Nathan J.; Clow, Gary D.; Cole-Dai, Jihong; Conway, Howard; Cravens, Eric; Cuffey, Kurt M.; Dunbar, Nelia W.; Edwards, Jon S.; Fegyveresi, John M.; Ferris, Dave G.; Fitzpatrick, Joan J.; Fudge, T. J.; Gibson, Chris J.; Gkinis, Vasileios; Goetz, Joshua J.; Gregory, Stephanie; Hargreaves, Geoffrey Mill; Iverson, Nels; Johnson, Jay A.; Jones, Tyler R.; Kalk, Michael L.; Kippenhan, Matthew J.; Koffman, Bess G.; Kreutz, Karl; Kuhl, Tanner W.; Lebar, Donald A.; Lee, James E.; Marcott, Shaun A.; Markle, Bradley R.; Maselli, Olivia J.; McConnell, Joseph R.; McGwire, Kenneth C.; Mitchell, Logan E.; Mortensen, Nicolai B.; Neff, Peter D.; Nishiizumi, Kunihiko; Nunn, Richard M.; Orsi, Anais J.; Pasteris, Daniel R.; Pedro, Joel B.; Pettit, Erin C.; Price, P. Buford; Priscu, John C.; Rhodes, Rachael H.; Rosen, Julia L.; Schauer, Andrew J.; Schoenemann, Spruce W.; Sendelbach, Paul J.; Severinghaus, Jeffrey P.; Shturmakov, Alexander J.; Sigl, Michael; Slawny, Kristina R.; Souney, Joseph M.; Sowers, Todd A.; Spencer, Matthew K.; Steig, Eric J.; Taylor, Kendrick C.; Twickler, Mark S.; Vaughn, Bruce H.; Voigt, Donald E.; Waddington, Edwin D.; Welten, Kees C.; Wendricks, Anthony W.; White, James W. C.; Winstrup, Mai; Wong, Gifford J.; Woodruff, Thomas E.

    2015-01-01

    The last glacial period exhibited abrupt Dansgaard–Oeschger climatic oscillations, evidence of which is preserved in a variety of Northern Hemisphere palaeoclimate archives1. Ice cores show that Antarctica cooled during the warm phases of the Greenland Dansgaard–Oeschger cycle and vice versa2, 3, suggesting an interhemispheric redistribution of heat through a mechanism called the bipolar seesaw4, 5, 6. Variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength are thought to have been important, but much uncertainty remains regarding the dynamics and trigger of these abrupt events7, 8, 9. Key information is contained in the relative phasing of hemispheric climate variations, yet the large, poorly constrained difference between gas age and ice age and the relatively low resolution of methane records from Antarctic ice cores have so far precluded methane-based synchronization at the required sub-centennial precision2, 3,10. Here we use a recently drilled high-accumulation Antarctic ice core to show that, on average, abrupt Greenland warming leads the corresponding Antarctic cooling onset by 218 ± 92 years (2σ) for Dansgaard–Oeschger events, including the Bølling event; Greenland cooling leads the corresponding onset of Antarctic warming by 208 ± 96 years. Our results demonstrate a north-to-south directionality of the abrupt climatic signal, which is propagated to the Southern Hemisphere high latitudes by oceanic rather than atmospheric processes. The similar interpolar phasing of warming and cooling transitions suggests that the transfer time of the climatic signal is independent of the AMOC background state. Our findings confirm a central role for ocean circulation in the bipolar seesaw and provide clear criteria for assessing hypotheses and model simulations of Dansgaard–Oeschger dynamics.

  17. Precise interpolar phasing of abrupt climate change during the last ice age.

    PubMed

    2015-04-30

    The last glacial period exhibited abrupt Dansgaard-Oeschger climatic oscillations, evidence of which is preserved in a variety of Northern Hemisphere palaeoclimate archives. Ice cores show that Antarctica cooled during the warm phases of the Greenland Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle and vice versa, suggesting an interhemispheric redistribution of heat through a mechanism called the bipolar seesaw. Variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength are thought to have been important, but much uncertainty remains regarding the dynamics and trigger of these abrupt events. Key information is contained in the relative phasing of hemispheric climate variations, yet the large, poorly constrained difference between gas age and ice age and the relatively low resolution of methane records from Antarctic ice cores have so far precluded methane-based synchronization at the required sub-centennial precision. Here we use a recently drilled high-accumulation Antarctic ice core to show that, on average, abrupt Greenland warming leads the corresponding Antarctic cooling onset by 218 ± 92 years (2σ) for Dansgaard-Oeschger events, including the Bølling event; Greenland cooling leads the corresponding onset of Antarctic warming by 208 ± 96 years. Our results demonstrate a north-to-south directionality of the abrupt climatic signal, which is propagated to the Southern Hemisphere high latitudes by oceanic rather than atmospheric processes. The similar interpolar phasing of warming and cooling transitions suggests that the transfer time of the climatic signal is independent of the AMOC background state. Our findings confirm a central role for ocean circulation in the bipolar seesaw and provide clear criteria for assessing hypotheses and model simulations of Dansgaard-Oeschger dynamics.

  18. Insolation and Abrupt Climate Change Effects on the Western Pacific Maritime Monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Partin, J. W.; Quinn, T. M.; Shen, C.; Cardenas, M.; Siringan, F. P.; Hori, M.; Okumura, Y.; Banner, J. L.; Lin, K.; Jiang, X.; Taylor, F. W.

    2013-12-01

    Many monsoon-sensitive paleoclimate archives capture the response of the Asian-Australian monsoon system to changes in summer insolation, as well as abrupt climate changes such as the Younger Dryas (YD). The response is commonly a direct one in Holocene and YD archives. In the case of insolation, increased summer insolation leads to increased monsoon rainfall over land, as captured in stalagmite δ18O records from Oman and China. We evaluate this direct response using maritime stalagmite records from the island of Palawan, Philippines (10 N, 119 E). The wet season in Palawan occurs over the same months (June-October) as in Oman, India and China. Therefore, we expected the Palawan stalagmite δ18O record, a proxy of rainfall, to have a similar response to changing insolation and hence, a trend of decreasing monsoon rainfall over the Holocene. However, the Holocene trend in two partially replicated stalagmite δ18O records is opposite to that expected: rainfall increases over the Holocene, despite the decrease of summer insolation over the Holocene. We interpret the Holocene trend observed at Palawan to be the result of an increase in the maritime monsoon that balances the reduction in the land monsoon; an interpretation that is consistent with previously published results from coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model runs. Seawater δ18O reconstructions from marine sediment cores in the western tropical Pacific contain a freshening trend over the Holocene, also supporting the hypothesis of increase maritime monsoon rainfall. The direct relationship between monsoon rainfall over land as recorded in the YD interval in Chinese stalagmite records is also observed in maritime monsoon rainfall during the YD at Palawan: both records get drier during the YD cold interval. This agreement between YD stalagmite records from China and Palawan contrasts sharply with the inverse relationship between these records over the Holocene. We further investigate the nature of

  19. Spontaneous abrupt climate change due to an atmospheric blocking-sea-ice-ocean feedback in an unforced climate model simulation.

    PubMed

    Drijfhout, Sybren; Gleeson, Emily; Dijkstra, Henk A; Livina, Valerie

    2013-12-01

    Abrupt climate change is abundant in geological records, but climate models rarely have been able to simulate such events in response to realistic forcing. Here we report on a spontaneous abrupt cooling event, lasting for more than a century, with a temperature anomaly similar to that of the Little Ice Age. The event was simulated in the preindustrial control run of a high-resolution climate model, without imposing external perturbations. Initial cooling started with a period of enhanced atmospheric blocking over the eastern subpolar gyre. In response, a southward progression of the sea-ice margin occurred, and the sea-level pressure anomaly was locked to the sea-ice margin through thermal forcing. The cold-core high steered more cold air to the area, reinforcing the sea-ice concentration anomaly east of Greenland. The sea-ice surplus was carried southward by ocean currents around the tip of Greenland. South of 70 °N, sea ice already started melting and the associated freshwater anomaly was carried to the Labrador Sea, shutting off deep convection. There, surface waters were exposed longer to atmospheric cooling and sea surface temperature dropped, causing an even larger thermally forced high above the Labrador Sea. In consequence, east of Greenland, anomalous winds changed from north to south, terminating the event with similar abruptness to its onset. Our results imply that only climate models that possess sufficient resolution to correctly represent atmospheric blocking, in combination with a sensitive sea-ice model, are able to simulate this kind of abrupt climate change.

  20. Spontaneous abrupt climate change due to an atmospheric blocking-sea-ice-ocean feedback in an unforced climate model simulation.

    PubMed

    Drijfhout, Sybren; Gleeson, Emily; Dijkstra, Henk A; Livina, Valerie

    2013-12-01

    Abrupt climate change is abundant in geological records, but climate models rarely have been able to simulate such events in response to realistic forcing. Here we report on a spontaneous abrupt cooling event, lasting for more than a century, with a temperature anomaly similar to that of the Little Ice Age. The event was simulated in the preindustrial control run of a high-resolution climate model, without imposing external perturbations. Initial cooling started with a period of enhanced atmospheric blocking over the eastern subpolar gyre. In response, a southward progression of the sea-ice margin occurred, and the sea-level pressure anomaly was locked to the sea-ice margin through thermal forcing. The cold-core high steered more cold air to the area, reinforcing the sea-ice concentration anomaly east of Greenland. The sea-ice surplus was carried southward by ocean currents around the tip of Greenland. South of 70 °N, sea ice already started melting and the associated freshwater anomaly was carried to the Labrador Sea, shutting off deep convection. There, surface waters were exposed longer to atmospheric cooling and sea surface temperature dropped, causing an even larger thermally forced high above the Labrador Sea. In consequence, east of Greenland, anomalous winds changed from north to south, terminating the event with similar abruptness to its onset. Our results imply that only climate models that possess sufficient resolution to correctly represent atmospheric blocking, in combination with a sensitive sea-ice model, are able to simulate this kind of abrupt climate change. PMID:24248352

  1. Spontaneous abrupt climate change due to an atmospheric blocking–sea-ice–ocean feedback in an unforced climate model simulation

    PubMed Central

    Drijfhout, Sybren; Gleeson, Emily; Dijkstra, Henk A.; Livina, Valerie

    2013-01-01

    Abrupt climate change is abundant in geological records, but climate models rarely have been able to simulate such events in response to realistic forcing. Here we report on a spontaneous abrupt cooling event, lasting for more than a century, with a temperature anomaly similar to that of the Little Ice Age. The event was simulated in the preindustrial control run of a high-resolution climate model, without imposing external perturbations. Initial cooling started with a period of enhanced atmospheric blocking over the eastern subpolar gyre. In response, a southward progression of the sea-ice margin occurred, and the sea-level pressure anomaly was locked to the sea-ice margin through thermal forcing. The cold-core high steered more cold air to the area, reinforcing the sea-ice concentration anomaly east of Greenland. The sea-ice surplus was carried southward by ocean currents around the tip of Greenland. South of 70°N, sea ice already started melting and the associated freshwater anomaly was carried to the Labrador Sea, shutting off deep convection. There, surface waters were exposed longer to atmospheric cooling and sea surface temperature dropped, causing an even larger thermally forced high above the Labrador Sea. In consequence, east of Greenland, anomalous winds changed from north to south, terminating the event with similar abruptness to its onset. Our results imply that only climate models that possess sufficient resolution to correctly represent atmospheric blocking, in combination with a sensitive sea-ice model, are able to simulate this kind of abrupt climate change. PMID:24248352

  2. Continuous methane record of abrupt climate change 10-68 ka: sighting Heinrich events in the ice core record

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rhodes, Rachael; Brook, Edward; Chiang, John; Blunier, Thomas; Cheng, Hai; Edwards, R. Lawrence; Maselli, Olivia; McConnell, Joseph; Romanini, Daniele; Severinghaus, Jeffrey; Sowers, Todd; Stowasser, Christopher

    2014-05-01

    The Last Glacial period was punctuated by millennial scale abrupt climate changes - Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) cycles and Heinrich events. Controls on the magnitude and frequency of these climate perturbations, and how they may be inter-related, remain unclear. Specific problems include the difficulty of dating Heinrich sediment layers and local bias of key paleoclimate archives. We present a highly detailed and precise record of ice core methane (CH4), a globally integrated signal, which resolves climatic features in unprecedented resolution. Abrupt CH4 increases are resolved in Heinrich Stadials (HS) 1, 2, 4 and 5 where, in contrast to all D-O cycles, there are no concurrent abrupt changes in Greenland temperature. Using modern-day tropical rainfall variability as an analog, we propose that strong cooling in the North Atlantic severely restricted the northerly range of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), leading to an enhanced wet season over Southern Hemisphere tropical land areas, and consequently driving production of excess CH4 in tropical wetlands. Our findings place four Heinrich events firmly within ice core chronologies and suggest maximum durations of 778 to 1606 yr. CH4 anomalies are only associated with Heinrich events of Hudson Strait provenance, indicating that the tropical impacts of Heinrich events were not uniform.

  3. Abrupt changes in Antarctic Intermediate Water strength lead Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation changes during the last deglacial

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xie, R.; Marcantonio, F.; Schmidt, M. W.

    2011-12-01

    depth that is greater than that of modern AAIW flow, may actually be recording shoaling of the southern-sourced mid-depth circulation instead of variations of AAIW. At the beginning of the YD, Bølling-Allerød, and H1 in the Florida Straits, changing ɛNd values lead benthic foraminiferal δ18O changes in 26JPC and 31JPC,which have previously been interpreted as reflecting AMOC variability [3]. This suggests that variations in the strength of AAIW lead significant changes in AMOC across abrupt climate events across the deglacial, providing evidence that the trigger for abrupt climate change may reside in the Southern Hemisphere. Additional high-resolution ɛNd results from VM12-107 will be presented in an effort to better constrain the role of intermediate waters during the last deglaction. [1] Came et al. (2008) Paleoceanography 23, PA1217 [2] Pahnke et al. (2008) Nature Geoscience 1, 870-874 [3] Lynch-Stieglitz et al. (2011) Paleoceanography 26, PA1205

  4. Abrupt physical and chemical changes during 1992-1999, Anderson Springs, SE Geyser Geothermal Field, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Janik, Cathy J.; Goff, Fraser; Walter, Stephen R.; Sorey, Michael L.; Counce, Dale; Colvard, Elizabeth M.

    2000-01-01

    of steam discharges from the Southeast Geysers. The hot spring waters are low in ions of Cl, B, and Li, but relatively high in HCO3, SO4 and NH4. The stable-isotope compositions (deuterium and oxygen-18) of these waters plot near the global meteoric water line. Geochemical data through time reveal apparent maxima in the concentrations of SO4, Fe, and Mn in 1991 to 1992, before the cluster became hotter. The black-to-gray deposits from the new spring cluster are rich in pyrite and contain anomalous metals. About one-half mile to the east of the hot springs, mineralized water discharges intermittently from an old adit of the Schwartz (Anderson) mine, and enters a tributary of Anderson Creek. This drainage increased substantially in July 1998, and a slurry of mine water and precipitates were transported down the tributary and into Anderson Creek. In December 1998, the adit water was 22°C, and had a chemical composition that was similar to spring waters that once discharged in the ravines surrounding the old Anderson Springs resort. The cause for the abrupt changes that have occurred in thermal features at Anderson Springs is still not resolved. One possibility is that these changes are a response to withdrawal of steam from The Geysers geothermal field over more than 20 years of production. Pressure declines in the geothermal reservoir may have caused a "drying out" of the overlying condensation zone. Induced boiling in this zone and upflow of deep steam to shallower depths would cause heating and vaporization of shallow ground waters. In addition, earthquakes occurring in the vicinity of Anderson Springs have increased significantly after nearby geothermal power plants began operation. These earthquakes may have enhanced surface discharge of thermal fluids along fractures and faults.

  5. Land-cover change detection

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Chen, Xuexia; Giri, Chandra; Vogelmann, James

    2012-01-01

    Land cover is the biophysical material on the surface of the earth. Land-cover types include grass, shrubs, trees, barren, water, and man-made features. Land cover changes continuously.  The rate of change can be either dramatic and abrupt, such as the changes caused by logging, hurricanes and fire, or subtle and gradual, such as regeneration of forests and damage caused by insects (Verbesselt et al., 2001).  Previous studies have shown that land cover has changed dramatically during the past sevearal centuries and that these changes have severely affected our ecosystems (Foody, 2010; Lambin et al., 2001). Lambin and Strahlers (1994b) summarized five types of cause for land-cover changes: (1) long-term natural changes in climate conditions, (2) geomorphological and ecological processes, (3) human-induced alterations of vegetation cover and landscapes, (4) interannual climate variability, and (5) human-induced greenhouse effect.  Tools and techniques are needed to detect, describe, and predict these changes to facilitate sustainable management of natural resources.

  6. THE ABRUPT CHANGES IN THE PHOTOSPHERIC MAGNETIC AND LORENTZ FORCE VECTORS DURING SIX MAJOR NEUTRAL-LINE FLARES

    SciTech Connect

    Petrie, G. J. D.

    2012-11-01

    We analyze the spatial and temporal variations of the abrupt photospheric magnetic changes associated with six major flares using 12 minute, 0.''5 pixel{sup -1} vector magnetograms from NASA's Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager instrument on the Solar Dynamics Observatory satellite. The six major flares occurred near the main magnetic neutral lines of four active regions, NOAA 11158, 11166, 11283, and 11429. During all six flares the neutral-line field vectors became stronger and more horizontal, in each case almost entirely due to strengthening of the horizontal field components parallel to the neutral line. In all six cases the neutral-line pre-flare fields were more vertical than the reference potential fields, and collapsed abruptly and permanently closer to potential-field tilt angles during every flare, implying that the relaxation of magnetic stress associated with non-potential tilt angles plays a major role during major flares. The shear angle with respect to the reference potential field did not show such a pattern, demonstrating that flare processes do not generally relieve magnetic stresses associated with photospheric magnetic shear. The horizontal fields became significantly and permanently more aligned with the neutral line during the four largest flares, suggesting that the collapsing field is on average more aligned with the neutral line than the pre-flare neutral-line field. The vertical Lorentz force had a large, abrupt, permanent downward change during each of the flares, consistent with loop collapse. The horizontal Lorentz force changes acted mostly parallel to the neutral line in opposite directions on each side, a signature of the fields contracting during the flare, pulling the two sides of the neutral line toward each other. The greater effect of the flares on field tilt than on shear may be explained by photospheric line-tying.

  7. Abrupt fire regime change may cause landscape-wide loss of mature obligate seeder forests.

    PubMed

    Bowman, David M J S; Murphy, Brett P; Neyland, Dominic L J; Williamson, Grant J; Prior, Lynda D

    2014-03-01

    Obligate seeder trees requiring high-severity fires to regenerate may be vulnerable to population collapse if fire frequency increases abruptly. We tested this proposition using a long-lived obligate seeding forest tree, alpine ash (Eucalyptus delegatensis), in the Australian Alps. Since 2002, 85% of the Alps bioregion has been burnt by several very large fires, tracking the regional trend of more frequent extreme fire weather. High-severity fires removed 25% of aboveground tree biomass, and switched fuel arrays from low loads of herbaceous and litter fuels to high loads of flammable shrubs and juvenile trees, priming regenerating stands for subsequent fires. Single high-severity fires caused adult mortality and triggered mass regeneration, but a second fire in quick succession killed 97% of the regenerating alpine ash. Our results indicate that without interventions to reduce fire severity, interactions between flammability of regenerating stands and increased extreme fire weather will eliminate much of the remaining mature alpine ash forest.

  8. Abrupt fire regime change may cause landscape-wide loss of mature obligate seeder forests.

    PubMed

    Bowman, David M J S; Murphy, Brett P; Neyland, Dominic L J; Williamson, Grant J; Prior, Lynda D

    2014-03-01

    Obligate seeder trees requiring high-severity fires to regenerate may be vulnerable to population collapse if fire frequency increases abruptly. We tested this proposition using a long-lived obligate seeding forest tree, alpine ash (Eucalyptus delegatensis), in the Australian Alps. Since 2002, 85% of the Alps bioregion has been burnt by several very large fires, tracking the regional trend of more frequent extreme fire weather. High-severity fires removed 25% of aboveground tree biomass, and switched fuel arrays from low loads of herbaceous and litter fuels to high loads of flammable shrubs and juvenile trees, priming regenerating stands for subsequent fires. Single high-severity fires caused adult mortality and triggered mass regeneration, but a second fire in quick succession killed 97% of the regenerating alpine ash. Our results indicate that without interventions to reduce fire severity, interactions between flammability of regenerating stands and increased extreme fire weather will eliminate much of the remaining mature alpine ash forest. PMID:24132866

  9. "What Controls the Structure and Stability of the Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation: Implications for Abrupt Climate Change?"

    SciTech Connect

    Fedorov, Alexey

    2013-11-23

    The central goal of this research project is to understand the properties of the ocean meridional overturning circulation (MOC) – a topic critical for understanding climate variability and stability on a variety of timescales (from decadal to centennial and longer). Specifically, we have explored various factors that control the MOC stability and decadal variability in the Atlantic and the ocean thermal structure in general, including the possibility abrupt climate change. We have also continued efforts on improving the performance of coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMs.

  10. The Meio 1498 earthquake and tsunami : driving force of abrupt environmental change in the Hamana floodplain, Shizuoka prefecture, Japan.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heyvaert, Vanessa M. A.; Fujiwara, Osamu; Umitsu, Masatomo; Sato, Yoshiki; Ono, Einsuke; Yata, Toshifumi

    2013-04-01

    The objective of this research is to study the role of a tsunami, generated by the 1498 Meio earthquake (M8.2 - 8.4) along the eastern Nankai on the geomorphological evolution of the Hamana river floodplain, located along the Pacific coastline of Central Japan (Shizuoka prefecture). Historical sources document a sudden decline at the end of the 15th century of the harbour town Hashimoto, located along the river Hamana. Before the 15th century, this river connected the Pacific Ocean with an enclosed coastal embayment separated by a sand barrier (i.e. the present-day Hamana lake) from the Pacific. The reconstruction of the palaeocourse of the Hamana river was carried out on the basis of detailed facies and diatom analyses of undisturbed sediment cores (geoslicer and drilling). The palaeochannel was detected along the western side of the present-day coastal embayment. It seems that the river's mouth was abruptly sealed off due to the migration of huge volumes of sand that initiated the development of a marsh environment upstream along the channel. The identification and radiocarbon dating of these sandy high-energy flow deposits in several cores (thick sand bed of marine origin intercalated at the estuarine - marsh environmental change boundary) suggests that the river mouth closure was initated by mass sediment transport by a storm surge or tsunami (1498 Meio tsunami and/or 1498 and 1499 large storm surges along the Hamana coastline). The same process, of sudden river mouth sealing by tsunami-transported sediments, was recently observed in the northeast of Japan during the great 2011 Sendai tsunami (Uda, T., 2011). Historical sources document that after the 1498 Meio tsunami, the Hamana back-barrier sheltered environment was reconnected to the Pacific Ocean due to breaching of its sand barrier. Both environmental changes (river mouth closure and barrier breaching)are synchronous with the sudden decline of the harbour town Hashimoto. These data suggest that disruption

  11. Abrupt changes in Antarctic Intermediate Water circulation over the past 25,000years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pahnke, Katharina; Goldstein, Steven L.; Hemming, Sidney R.

    2008-12-01

    The circulation of Antarctic Intermediate Water is thought to make an important contribution to the global ocean-climate system, but the details of this interaction are not fully understood. Furthermore, the behaviour of Antarctic Intermediate Water under glacial and interglacial conditions is not well constrained. Here we present a 25,000-year-long record of neodymium isotopic variations-a tracer of water-mass mixing-from the middle depths of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Our data reveal abruptly enhanced northward advection of Antarctic Intermediate Water during periods of reduced North Atlantic overturning circulation during the last deglaciation. These events coincide with an increase in the formation of Antarctic Intermediate Water and warming in the southwest Pacific Ocean, which suggests a tight link with Southern Hemisphere climate. In contrast, the initial incursion of southern source water into the North Atlantic ~19,000years ago coincided with weak Antarctic Intermediate Water formation in the Pacific and reduced overturning in the North Atlantic. We conclude that reduced competition at intermediate water depth at this time allowed expansion of Antarctic Intermediate Water into the North Atlantic. This early incursion of Antarctic Intermediate Water may have contributed to freshening of the North Atlantic, perhaps spurring the subsequent collapse of North Atlantic deep convection.

  12. An expert system to perform on-line controller restructuring for abrupt model changes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Litt, Jonathan S.

    1990-01-01

    Work in progress on an expert system used to reconfigure and tune airframe/engine control systems on-line in real time in response to battle damage or structural failures is presented. The closed loop system is monitored constantly for changes in structure and performance, the detection of which prompts the expert system to choose and apply a particular control restructuring algorithm based on the type and severity of the damage. Each algorithm is designed to handle specific types of failures and each is applicable only in certain situations. The expert system uses information about the system model to identify the failure and to select the technique best suited to compensate for it. A depth-first search is used to find a solution. Once a new controller is designed and implemented it must be tuned to recover the original closed-loop handling qualities and responsiveness from the degraded system. Ideally, the pilot should not be able to tell the difference between the original and redesigned systems. The key is that the system must have inherent redundancy so that degraded or missing capabilities can be restored by creative use of alternate functionalities. With enough redundancy in the control system, minor battle damage affecting individual control surfaces or actuators, compressor efficiency, etc., can be compensated for such that the closed-loop performance in not noticeably altered. The work is applied to a Black Hawk/T700 system.

  13. Ocean surface conditions on the SE Greenland shelf during the last millennium - from abrupt changes to centennial variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miettinen, Arto; Divine, Dmitry; Husum, Katrine; Koç, Nalan; Jennings, Anne

    2016-04-01

    August sea surface temperatures (aSST) and April sea-ice concentrations (aSIC) covering the last 2900 years have been reconstructed in order to investigate the variability of summer surface conditions along possible forcing factors on the SE Greenland shelf. In this diatom-based study, we focus on the interval ca. 870-1910 Common Era (CE) reconstructed at a high temporal resolution of 3-8 years. The results demonstrate both abrupt changes and a clear centennial-bicentennial variability for the last millennium. The Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) between 1000 and 1200 CE represents the warmest ocean surface conditions of the SE Greenland shelf over the late Holocene (880 BCE-1910 CE). MCA in the current record is characterized by abrupt, decadal to multidecadal changes, such as an abrupt warming of ~2.4 °C in 55 years around 1000 CE. Temperature changes of these magnitudes are rarely observed in other proxy records from the North Atlantic. Compared to regional air temperature reconstructions, our results indicate a lag of about 50 years in ocean surface warming either due to increased freshwater discharge from the Greenland ice sheet or intensified sea-ice export from the Arctic as a response to atmospheric warming at the beginning of the MCA. A cool phase, from 1200-1890 CE, associated with the Little Ice Age (LIA), ends with the rapid warming of aSST and diminished aSIC in the early 20th century. The phases of warm aSST and aSIC minima on the SE Greenland shelf and solar minima of the last millennium are antiphased, suggesting that solar forcing possibly amplified by atmospheric forcing has been behind the aSST variability on the SE Greenland over the last millennium. The results might indicate decreased sea ice formation on the SE Greenland shelf due to diminished freshwater input from the Greenland Ice Sheet during the cold climate periods. The results show that the SE Greenland shelf is a climatologically sensitive area where extremely rapid changes are

  14. Shear forces during blast, not abrupt changes in pressure alone, generate calcium activity in human brain cells.

    PubMed

    Ravin, Rea; Blank, Paul S; Steinkamp, Alex; Rappaport, Shay M; Ravin, Nitay; Bezrukov, Ludmila; Guerrero-Cazares, Hugo; Quinones-Hinojosa, Alfredo; Bezrukov, Sergey M; Zimmerberg, Joshua

    2012-01-01

    Blast-Induced Traumatic Brain Injury (bTBI) describes a spectrum of injuries caused by an explosive force that results in changes in brain function. The mechanism responsible for primary bTBI following a blast shockwave remains unknown. We have developed a pneumatic device that delivers shockwaves, similar to those known to induce bTBI, within a chamber optimal for fluorescence microscopy. Abrupt changes in pressure can be created with and without the presence of shear forces at the surface of cells. In primary cultures of human central nervous system cells, the cellular calcium response to shockwaves alone was negligible. Even when the applied pressure reached 15 atm, there was no damage or excitation, unless concomitant shear forces, peaking between 0.3 to 0.7 Pa, were present at the cell surface. The probability of cellular injury in response to a shockwave was low and cell survival was unaffected 20 hours after shockwave exposure.

  15. A Collaborative Proposal: Simulating and Understanding Abrupt Climate-Ecosystem Changes During Holocene with NCAR-CCSM3.

    SciTech Connect

    Zhengyu Liu, Bette Otto-Bliesner

    2013-02-01

    We have made significant progress in our proposed work in the last 4 years (3 years plus 1 year of no cost extension). In anticipation of the next phase of study, we have spent time on the abrupt changes since the last glacial maximum. First, we have performed further model-data comparison based on our baseline TRACE-21 simulation and made important progress towards the understanding of several major climate transitions. Second, we have made a significant effort in processing the model output of TRACE-21 and have put this output on a website for access by the community. Third, we have completed many additional sensitivity experiments. In addition, we have organized synthesis workshops to facilitate and promote transient model-data comparison for the international community. Finally, we have identified new areas of interest for Holocene climate changes.

  16. Fluctuations in runoff from rivers in the Andes between 22 ° and 50 ° LS: analysis of trend and abrupt changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alberto Ismael Juan, V.; Carolina, L.; Federico, B.

    2013-05-01

    The Andes is the main regulator of water resources in the western areas of Argentina. The current changes in the climatic conditions in the region influence the behavior of the hydrological regime, causing changes in the occurrence of low flows and maximum. This paper aims to detect changes in the flow regime of the Andean rivers of western Argentina in order to expand the existing information and ensure appropriate resource management. We worked with 76 gauging stations with series of daily flows, information gaps were filled by Lagrange interpolation, by autocorrelation and by MOVE (Maintenance Of Variance Extensión). 29 hydrological variables were chosen. An exploratory data analysis was made to verify the assumptions of normality, independence and randomness. Said conditions were verified, with the first one fulfilling only 37% of the cases and the other two conditions 63% and 67% respectively We applied various statistical tests (parametric and nonparametric, for of long-term trend analysis (Student t, SROC (Spearman Rank Order Correlation), Mann-Kendall and corrections), step change (Pettitt, Students sequential t, Worsley, Buishand, Rank-sum, CUSUM) and outliers (Grubbs, Rosner, Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data). In the long-term trend analysis, parametric tests and non-parametric showed similar results for a significance level of 5%. In summary, the time series over 20010 analyzed, only 20 percent and changes were detected in most of them correspond to periods of low water. The different methods to determine abrupt changes in the hydrologic variables series show relatively different results. The different tests require the condition of distribution normality (Pettitt, Students sequential t, Worsley, Buishand). These are aspects that occur in only a few cases thus introducing a significant uncertainty level in the results. The Pettitt test did not identify abrupt changes in practically none of the analyzed series. The Worsley test is quite

  17. Aerodynamic and Acoustic Effects of Abrupt Frequency Changes in Excised Larynges

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Alipour, Fariborz; Finnegan, Eileen M.; Scherer, Ronald C.

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: To determine the aerodynamic and acoustic effects due to a sudden change from chest to falsetto register or vice versa. It was hypothesized that the continuous change in subglottal pressure and flow rate alone (pressure-flow sweep [PFS]) can trigger a mode change in the canine larynx. Method: Ten canine larynges were each mounted over a…

  18. A Generalized Stability Analysis of the AMOC in Earth System Models: Implication for Decadal Variability and Abrupt Climate Change

    SciTech Connect

    Fedorov, Alexey V.

    2015-01-14

    The central goal of this research project was to understand the mechanisms of decadal and multi-decadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as related to climate variability and abrupt climate change within a hierarchy of climate models ranging from realistic ocean models to comprehensive Earth system models. Generalized Stability Analysis, a method that quantifies the transient and asymptotic growth of perturbations in the system, is one of the main approaches used throughout this project. The topics we have explored range from physical mechanisms that control AMOC variability to the factors that determine AMOC predictability in the Earth system models, to the stability and variability of the AMOC in past climates.

  19. Abrupt Intralesional Color Change on Dermoscopy as a New Indicator of Early Superficial Spreading Melanoma in a Japanese Woman.

    PubMed

    Sadayasu, Anna; Tanaka, Masaru; Maumi, Yoshifumi; Ikeda, Eriko; Sawada, Mizuki; Ishizaki, Sumiko; Murakami, Yoshiyuki; Fujibayashi, Mariko

    2015-01-01

    Diagnosis of superficial spreading melanoma in the early stage is often difficult, even with dermoscopy. We report the case of a 37-year-old Japanese woman with superficial spreading melanoma in her left buttock. The lesion developed 20 years before becoming visible and gradually enlarged over the past few years without any symptoms. Physical examination showed a well-demarcated dark-brown macule 10 mm in diameter. Dermoscopy demonstrated a central dark area with a blue-grey structureless area, a milky-red area with irregular blue-grey dots or globules suggestive of regression structures, and multifocal black pigmentation with whitish scaly areas. An abrupt intralesional change in color from a central dark area to a peripheral light-brown area was also seen. The peripheral area showed an atypical pigment network with an obscure mesh and holes. Histopathologic examination of the lesion showed acanthosis with melanocytic proliferation and nuclear atypia, a band-like lymphocytic infiltrate, melanophages and a few nests of melanocytes just beneath the epidermis. The epidermal melanocytes were positive for S-100, Melan-A and HMB-45, but the dermal nests of melanocytes were negative for HMB-45 and positive for S-100 and Melan-A. A diagnosis of superficial spreading melanoma with a tumor thickness of 0.4 mm (pT1aN0M0, stage 1A) was established based on the clinical, dermoscopic and histopathologic findings. This case suggests that dermoscopy is useful in the diagnosis of this condition. An abrupt intralesional change of color might be a new indicator of early superficial spreading melanoma. PMID:26269701

  20. ABRUPT CHANGES OF THE PHOTOSPHERIC MAGNETIC FIELD IN ACTIVE REGIONS AND THE IMPULSIVE PHASE OF SOLAR FLARES

    SciTech Connect

    Cliver, E. W.; Petrie, G. J. D.; Ling, A. G.

    2012-09-10

    We compared time profiles of changes of the unsigned photospheric magnetic flux in active regions with those of their associated soft X-ray (SXR) bursts for a sample of 75 {>=} M5 flares well observed by Global Oscillation Network Group longitudinal magnetographs. Sixty-six of these events had stepwise changes in the spatially integrated unsigned flux during the SXR flares. In superposed epoch plots for these 66 events, there is a sharp increase in the unsigned magnetic flux coincident with the onset of the flare impulsive phase while the end of the stepwise change corresponds to the time of peak SXR emission. We substantiated this result with a histogram-based comparison of the timing of flux steps (onset, midpoint of step, and end) for representative points in the flaring regions with their associated SXR event time markers (flare onset, onset of impulsive phase, time of peak logarithmic derivative, maximum). On an individual event basis, the principal part of the stepwise magnetic flux change occurred during the main rise phase of the SXR burst (impulsive phase onset to SXR peak) for {approx}60% of the 66 cases. We find a close timing agreement between magnetic flux steps and >100 keV emission for the three largest hard X-ray (>100 keV) bursts in our sample. These results identify the abrupt changes in photospheric magnetic fields as an impulsive phase phenomenon and indicate that the coronal magnetic field changes that drive flares are rapidly transmitted to the photosphere.

  1. Dynamics of Adaptation in Experimental Yeast Populations Exposed to Gradual and Abrupt Change in Heavy Metal Concentration.

    PubMed

    Gorter, Florien A; Aarts, Mark M G; Zwaan, Bas J; de Visser, J Arjan G M

    2016-01-01

    Directional environmental change is a ubiquitous phenomenon that may have profound effects on all living organisms. However, it is unclear how different rates of such change affect the dynamics and outcome of evolution. We studied this question using experimental evolution of heavy metal tolerance in the baker's yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae. To this end, we grew replicate lines of yeast for 500 generations in the presence of (1) a constant high concentration of cadmium, nickel, or zinc or (2) a gradually increasing concentration of these metals. We found that gradual environmental change leads to a delay in fitness increase compared with abrupt change but not necessarily to a different fitness of evolutionary endpoints. For the nonessential metal cadmium, this delay is due to reduced fitness differences between genotypes at low metal concentrations, consistent with directional selection to minimize intracellular concentrations of this metal. In contrast, for the essential metals nickel and zinc, different genotypes are selected at different concentrations, consistent with stabilizing selection to maintain constant intracellular concentrations of these metals. These findings indicate diverse fitness consequences of evolved tolerance mechanisms for essential and nonessential metals and imply that the rate of environmental change and the nature of the stressor are crucial determinants of evolutionary dynamics. PMID:27277407

  2. Abrupt State Change in Spatially-Patterned Subalpine Forests in Northern Colorado During the Medieval Climate Anomaly

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calder, W. J.; Shuman, B. N.

    2014-12-01

    Spatial patterns in many ecosystems arise from feedbacks associated with the potential for critical transitions and multiple stable states. Such systems may be susceptible to abrupt change, which could be indicated by early-warning signals, such as critical slowing down (increasingly long recovery from perturbation as a threshold approaches). Paleoecological data from ribbon forests, a type of subalpine parkland found in the Rocky Mountains, offer an opportunity to test these hypotheses. The forests consist of alternating strips of forest and meadow that form because bands of Picea and Abies trees act as snow fences with large snowdrifts forming on their lee sides. Drifts provide moisture for the adjacent trees, but also increase seedling mortality and shorten the growing season where drifts accumulate. The feedbacks between forest growth and snow accumulation maintain the ribbon forest-meadow pattern, and raise the potential for abrupt change if the feedbacks breakdown in response to factors like drought or fire. Our fossil pollen data from Summit Lake, located on the Continental Divide in the Park Range, northern Colorado, indicate that a closed forest transitioned rapidly to a ribbon forest state at ca. 1000 BP. Artemisia pollen increased (20 to 35%) and Picea and Abies pollen decreased (25 to 15%) within a century or less after a pair of charcoal peaks. Decreased charcoal influx (from 0.6 to 0.4 pieces/cm2/yr) and fire frequency (from 4.5 to 1.5 fires/ka) coincided with the pollen assemblage changes, and is consistent with decreased landscape biomass and fuel connectivity. Initial analyses show evidence of critical slowing down before the state change. After eight of eleven fires recorded by peaks in charcoal accumulation, Artemisia pollen percentages rise to a peak consistent with brief opening of the initially forested landscape. After 2000 BP, the magnitude and duration of the post-fire changes increases until no recovery is recorded after the shift at 1000

  3. Detecting Unidentified Changes

    PubMed Central

    Howe, Piers D. L.; Webb, Margaret E.

    2014-01-01

    Does becoming aware of a change to a purely visual stimulus necessarily cause the observer to be able to identify or localise the change or can change detection occur in the absence of identification or localisation? Several theories of visual awareness stress that we are aware of more than just the few objects to which we attend. In particular, it is clear that to some extent we are also aware of the global properties of the scene, such as the mean luminance or the distribution of spatial frequencies. It follows that we may be able to detect a change to a visual scene by detecting a change to one or more of these global properties. However, detecting a change to global property may not supply us with enough information to accurately identify or localise which object in the scene has been changed. Thus, it may be possible to reliably detect the occurrence of changes without being able to identify or localise what has changed. Previous attempts to show that this can occur with natural images have produced mixed results. Here we use a novel analysis technique to provide additional evidence that changes can be detected in natural images without also being identified or localised. It is likely that this occurs by the observers monitoring the global properties of the scene. PMID:24454727

  4. The Glacial-Interglacial Deuterium Excess Signal in the Illimani ice Core (Bolivia) Reveals Long Term and Abrupt Climate Changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vimeux, F.; Ramirez, E.; Sylvestre, F.; Hoffmann, G.

    2006-12-01

    The Illimani ice core, located on the Bolivian Cordillera Real (16S, 67W, 6350m) and covering approximately the last 18,000 years, has provided a wealth of paleoclimate information relative to the Andean and Amazonian regions. Specifically, isotopic composition of the ice has documented well known past climate changes (the Last Glacial Maximum, the Younger Dryas period, the Holocene Optimum and the last thousand years) that might be interpreted in terms of changes in precipitation over Amazonia. Here, we present new isotopic measurements from this ice core: deuterium excess at a 1cm- depth resolution (i.e around 30-year resolution) from the bottom of the core to around 5,000 years BP present. Deuterium excess (d= delta D-8*deltaO18) is a measure of the degree to which phase change occurs away from the thermodynamic equilibrium along air masses trajectory and therefore changes with the meteorological conditions (relative humidity, surface temperature and wind) during non-total evaporation (from the ocean surface, stagnant waters as lakes, rivers or flooded soil, droplets, or canopy-intercepted water) and with the supersaturation during condensation to ice. It thus might be sensitive to climate changes 1- impacting humidity and saturation conditions of the atmosphere and 2- changing the relative moisture sources contribution of Andean precipitation (recycling versus advective moisture). Based on a calibration combining isotopic composition of modern precipitation and modeling works, we discuss the significant glacial-interglacial deuterium excess change of about 3 permil as well as the very abrupt changes (between 4 and 12 per mil) occuring during well known lacustrine Tauca phase.

  5. Geomorphic Expression of Abrupt Climate Change in Southwestern North America at the Glacial Termination

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson, Roger Y.; Allen, Bruce D.; Menking, Kirsten M.

    2002-05-01

    Eolian and subaqueous landforms composed of gypsum sand provide geomorphic evidence for a wet episode at the termination of glacial climate in southwestern North America. Drying of pluvial Lake Estancia, central New Mexico, occurred after ca. 12,000 14C yr B.P. Thereafter, eolian landforms on the old lake floor, constructed of gypsum sand, were overridden by rising lake water, modified by subaqueous processes, and organized into beach ridges along the lake's eastern shore. Preservation of preexisting eolian landforms in the shallow lake suggests abupt changes in lake level and climate. Available radiocarbon ages suggest that the final highstand recorded by beach ridges may have developed during the Younger Dryas (YD) stade. The beach ridges provide information about lake surface area, which was 45% of the lake area reached during the maximum highstands of the late Pleistocene. A similar proportional response has been reported for YD climate changes outside the North Atlantic region.

  6. Abrupt recent trend changes in atmospheric nitrogen dioxide over the Middle East

    PubMed Central

    Lelieveld, Jos; Beirle, Steffen; Hörmann, Christoph; Stenchikov, Georgiy; Wagner, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    Nitrogen oxides, released from fossil fuel use and other combustion processes, affect air quality and climate. From the mid-1990s onward, nitrogen dioxide (NO2) has been monitored from space, and since 2004 with relatively high spatial resolution by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument. Strong upward NO2 trends have been observed over South and East Asia and the Middle East, in particular over major cities. We show, however, that a combination of air quality control and political factors, including economical crisis and armed conflict, has drastically altered the emission landscape of nitrogen oxides in the Middle East. Large changes, including trend reversals, have occurred since about 2010 that could not have been predicted and therefore are at odds with emission scenarios used in projections of air pollution and climate change in the early 21st century. PMID:26601240

  7. Abrupt recent trend changes in atmospheric nitrogen dioxide over the Middle East.

    PubMed

    Lelieveld, Jos; Beirle, Steffen; Hörmann, Christoph; Stenchikov, Georgiy; Wagner, Thomas

    2015-08-01

    Nitrogen oxides, released from fossil fuel use and other combustion processes, affect air quality and climate. From the mid-1990s onward, nitrogen dioxide (NO2) has been monitored from space, and since 2004 with relatively high spatial resolution by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument. Strong upward NO2 trends have been observed over South and East Asia and the Middle East, in particular over major cities. We show, however, that a combination of air quality control and political factors, including economical crisis and armed conflict, has drastically altered the emission landscape of nitrogen oxides in the Middle East. Large changes, including trend reversals, have occurred since about 2010 that could not have been predicted and therefore are at odds with emission scenarios used in projections of air pollution and climate change in the early 21st century. PMID:26601240

  8. Abrupt Change in North American Plate Motion: Magnetostratigraphy and Paleopoles of the Early Jurassic Moenave Formation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hutny, M. K.; Steiner, M. B.

    2001-12-01

    The J-1 cusp marks a dramatic ~ 180° change in the apparent motion of the magnetic pole with respect to North America. The cusp is defined by a sequence of poles: Chinle - Moenave - Kayenta. The Moenave pole (Ekstrand and Butler, 1989), which forms the point of the cusp, was obtained primarily from the lower member (Dinosaur Canyon) of the three-member Moenave Formation. We present new paleomagnetic data from the upper two members (Whitmore Point and Springdale Sandstone) of the formation. The Vermillion Cliffs in southern Utah present excellent exposures of the Moenave Formation. At this location, the Moenave rests uncomformably on the Late Triassic Chinle Group, although to the southeast it overlies it in a conformable manner. The Moenave is seemingly conformably overlain by the Kayenta Formation. Our study identified six polarity intervals in 100 meters of section. A preliminary paleopole from the Whitmore Point Member falls within the 95% confidence limits of the Dinosaur Canyon pole (Ekstrand and Butler, 1989), as does our pole from the top Springdale Sandstone member. If the apparent polar wander does indeed represent motion of the North American continent, then the reversal in direction implied by the J-1 cusp takes place after the deposition of the Springdale Sandstone, and either before or during the deposition of the lower Kayenta Formation. No directions intermediate between the Moenave and Kayenta directions were observed up through the uppermost Moenave strata. Within the Moenave, the lack of discernable change in magnetic direction between the three members suggests continuous deposition. This result is consistent with the observed mutually interfingering nature of the Whitmore Point and Springdale Sandstone. The sudden change in magnetic direction between the top of the Moenave and the Kayenta suggests the possibility of an unconformity between the two formations, and/or rapid continental motion following the turnaround.

  9. Postglacial Response of Terrestrial Neotropical Vegetation to Abrupt Climate Change as Recorded by Pollen from a Marine Core, Cariaco Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Delusina, I.; Peterson, L. C.; Spero, H. J.

    2011-12-01

    The response of terrestrial vegetation to the climatic shift that followed the Last Glacial Maximum is a critical component of the Neotropical climate system: it is linked to the carbon cycle and makes it possible to trace the impact of climatic alterations. We analyzed fossil pollen from high-resolution marine core MD03-2620 from the anoxic Cariaco Basin, off the coast of Venezuela. The study covers the period from Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the mid-Holocene. Previous paleoreconstructions from Cariaco Basin sediments emphasized that the abrupt climatic change that followed the LGM was associated with a shift of the ITCZ, subsequent sea level oscillations and alteration in a thermohaline circulation. We maintain that pollen from the marine core reflects vegetation trends of a large regional area, which smooths out local peculiarities in vegetation and allows us to trace the Cold/Dry-Warm/Wet dynamic in the pollen assemblages of the Cariaco sediments. Our pollen analysis indicates an interval of clear dominance of C4-type plants between ca 19.0 - 17.5 kyr BP, representing the transition from salt-marshes to steppe/savanna on the lowland. The onset of the Mystery Interval MI (17.5 to ~14.5 kyr BP) caused the most dramatic changes in vegetation for all postglacial time and was characterized sequentially by both a wet and dry signal, resulting in the reduction of forest vegetation, and later with the expansion of salt marshes in the littoral zone. According to the pollen data, MI consisted of two clearly recognized parts with a bridge in the middle: 1) H1-a. Dry interval between ~17.5 and 16.5 kyr BP with gradually growing humidity, that reaches a plateau at ~16.6 kyr BP. 2) Middle of the MI: ~ 16.5 - 15.8 kyr BP, exhibiting warm, humid conditions. 3) H1-b. Dry period after ~15.8 kyr BP, to ~14.5 kyr BP. The largest abrupt change in the pollen record is the transition to the Bølling/Allerød Stade, where our results are well correlated with plant wax biomarker

  10. Chinese stalagmites: proxies for the Indian Summer Monsoon response to an archetypal abrupt climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pausata, F.; Battisti, D. S.; Nisancioglu, K. H.

    2010-12-01

    Stalagmites from Indian and Chinese caves have been widely used to infer past strength of the Indian and East Asian summer monsoon, as their oxygen isotopic composition (δ18O) is primarily controlled by the δ18O of precipitation. Here we show that a sudden increase in North Atlantic sea ice extent during the last glacial period cools the Northern Hemisphere, reduces precipitation over the Indian basin and weakens the Indian monsoon. In turn, the annual weighted δ18O of precipitation (δ18Op) is increased over India and isotopically heavier vapor is exported to China - directly by circulation and indirectly through continental recycling. The model reproduces the observed changes in climate associated with an archetypal Heinrich event and the δ18Op changes seen in stalagmites across China, which are proxies of Indian monsoon and not the East Asian monsoon as previously thought. Our results also provide insight on Dansgaard-Oeschger events and precessional cycle variations seen in these records.

  11. Quantifying Climate Feedbacks from Abrupt Changes in High-Latitude Trace-Gas Emissions

    SciTech Connect

    Schlosser, Courtney Adam; Walter-Anthony, Katey; Zhuang, Qianlai; Melillo, Jerry

    2013-04-26

    Our overall goal was to quantify the potential for threshold changes in natural emission rates of trace gases, particularly methane and carbon dioxide, from pan-arctic terrestrial systems under the spectrum of anthropogenically forced climate warming, and the extent to which these emissions provide a strong feedback mechanism to global climate warming. This goal is motivated under the premise that polar amplification of global climate warming will induce widespread thaw and degradation of the permafrost, and would thus cause substantial changes in the extent of wetlands and lakes, especially thermokarst (thaw) lakes, over the Arctic. Through a coordinated effort of field measurements, model development, and numerical experimentation with an integrated assessment model framework, we have investigated the following hypothesis: There exists a climate-warming threshold beyond which permafrost degradation becomes widespread and thus instigates strong and/or sharp increases in methane emissions (via thermokarst lakes and wetland expansion). These would outweigh any increased uptake of carbon (e.g. from peatlands) and would result in a strong, positive feedback to global climate warming.

  12. Percolation in interdependent and interconnected networks: Abrupt change from second- to first-order transitions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, Yanqing; Ksherim, Baruch; Cohen, Reuven; Havlin, Shlomo

    2011-12-01

    Robustness of two coupled networks systems has been studied separately only for dependency coupling [Buldyrev , Nature (London)NATUAS0028-083610.1038/nature08932 464, 1025 (2010)] and only for connectivity coupling [Leicht and D’Souza, e-print arXiv:0907.0894]. Here we study, using a percolation approach, a more realistic coupled networks system where both interdependent and interconnected links exist. We find rich and unusual phase-transition phenomena including hybrid transition of mixed first and second order, i.e., discontinuities like in a first-order transition of the giant component followed by a continuous decrease to zero like in a second-order transition. Moreover, we find unusual discontinuous changes from second-order to first-order transition as a function of the dependency coupling between the two networks.

  13. Insolation and Abrupt Climate Change Effects on the Western Pacific Maritime Monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Partin, J. W.; Quinn, T. M.; Shen, C.; Cardenas, M. B.; Siringan, F. P.; Banner, J. L.; lin, K.; Taylor, F. W.

    2012-12-01

    The response of the Asian-Australian monsoon system to changes in summer insolation over the Holocene is recorded in many monsoon-sensitive paleoclimate reconstructions. The response is commonly direct; more summer insolation leads to increased monsoon rainfall over land as captured in stalagmite δ18O records from Oman and China. We evaluate this direct response using a maritime stalagmite record from the island of Palawan, Philippines (10 N, 119 E). The wet season in Palawan occurs over the same months (June-October) as in Oman, India and China. Therefore, we expected the stalagmite δ18O record from Palawan, a proxy of rainfall, to have a similar trend of decreasing monsoon rainfall over the Holocene. However, the Holocene trend in stalagmite δ18O is opposite to that expected: rainfall increases over the Holocene. Our explanation for the Holocene trend observed at Palawan is that the increase in the maritime monsoon balances the reduction in the land monsoon; an explanation that is consistent with previously published coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model results. Seawater δ18O reconstructions from marine sediment cores in the western tropical Pacific contain a freshening trend over the Holocene, also supporting the hypothesis of increase maritime monsoon rainfall. However, the decrease in maritime monsoon rainfall during the Younger Dryas at Palawan matches that observed in Chinese stalagmite records, meeting our original expectation of a similar wet season response in the various Asian-Australian monsoon records. One explanation for the similar Younger Dryas response in these monsoon records is the influence of seasonal changes in sea ice coverage, as previously suggested. A stalagmite δ18O record from Borneo (~800 km SE of Palawan), which lacks evidence of the Younger Dryas, provides supporting evidence for this explanation.

  14. Learned vocal variation is associated with abrupt cryptic genetic change in a parrot species complex.

    PubMed

    Ribot, Raoul F H; Buchanan, Katherine L; Endler, John A; Joseph, Leo; Bennett, Andrew T D; Berg, Mathew L

    2012-01-01

    Contact zones between subspecies or closely related species offer valuable insights into speciation processes. A typical feature of such zones is the presence of clinal variation in multiple traits. The nature of these traits and the concordance among clines are expected to influence whether and how quickly speciation will proceed. Learned signals, such as vocalizations in species having vocal learning (e.g. humans, many birds, bats and cetaceans), can exhibit rapid change and may accelerate reproductive isolation between populations. Therefore, particularly strong concordance among clines in learned signals and population genetic structure may be expected, even among continuous populations in the early stages of speciation. However, empirical evidence for this pattern is often limited because differences in vocalisations between populations are driven by habitat differences or have evolved in allopatry. We tested for this pattern in a unique system where we may be able to separate effects of habitat and evolutionary history. We studied geographic variation in the vocalizations of the crimson rosella (Platycercus elegans) parrot species complex. Parrots are well known for their life-long vocal learning and cognitive abilities. We analysed contact calls across a ca 1300 km transect encompassing populations that differed in neutral genetic markers and plumage colour. We found steep clinal changes in two acoustic variables (fundamental frequency and peak frequency position). The positions of the two clines in vocal traits were concordant with a steep cline in microsatellite-based genetic variation, but were discordant with the steep clines in mtDNA, plumage and habitat. Our study provides new evidence that vocal variation, in a species with vocal learning, can coincide with areas of restricted gene flow across geographically continuous populations. Our results suggest that traits that evolve culturally can be strongly associated with reduced gene flow between

  15. Abrupt Changes at the Permian/Triassic Boundary: Tempo of Events from High-Resolution Cyclostratigraphy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rampino, M. R.; Prokoph, A.; Adler, A. C.

    2000-01-01

    The Permian/Triassic (P/Tr) boundary (251.4 +/- 3 Myr) is marked by the most severe mass extinction in the geologic record. Recently, precise absolute dating has bracketed the marine extinctions and associated carbon-isotope anomaly within less than 1 Myr. We improve this resolution through high-resolution stratigraphy across the P/Tr boundary in the 331-m Gartnerkofel-1 core and nearby Reppwand outcrop section (Carnic Alps, Austria) utilizing FFT and wavelet timeseries analyses of cyclic components in down-hole core logs of density and natural gamma-ray intensity, and carbon-isotopic ratios of bulk samples. The wavelet analysis indicates continuity of deposition across the P/Tr boundary interval, and the timeseries analyses show evidence for persistent cycles in the ratio of approximately 40: 10: 4.7: 2.3 meters, correlated with Milankovitch-band orbital cycles of approximately 412: 100: 40: 20 kyr (eccentricity 1 and 2, obliquity, and precession), and giving a consistent average sedimentation rate of approximately 10 cm/1,000 yr. Milankovitch periods in delta C-13 and density in these shallow-water carbonates were most likely the result of climatically induced oscillations of sea level and climate, coupled with changes in ocean circulation and productivity, that affected sedimentation. Fluctuations in gamma radiation reflect varying input of clay minerals and the presence of shaly interbeds. Throughout the P/Tr boundary interval in the core, the 100,000-year eccentricity cycle seems to be dominant. Weaker obliquity and precession cycles are in line with the location of the Austrian section in the latest Permian, close to the Equator in the western bight of the Tethys, where obliquity and precessional effects on seasonal contrast might be subdued. Using the improved resolution provided by cycle analysis in the GK-1 core, we find that the dramatic change in the faunal record that marks the P/Tr boundary takes place over less than 6m, or less than 60,000 years. In

  16. Quantifying Climate Feedbacks from Abrupt Changes in High-Latitude Trace-Gas Emissions

    SciTech Connect

    Zhuang, Qianlai

    2012-11-16

    During the three-year project period, Purdue University has specifically accomplished the following: revised the existing Methane Dynamics Model (MDM) to consider the effects of changes of atmospheric pressure; applied the methane dynamics model (MDM) to Siberian region to demonstrate that ebullition estimates could increase previous estimates of regional terrestrial CH{sub 4} emissions 3- to 7-fold in Siberia; Conducted an analysis of the carbon balance of the Arctic Basin from 1997 to 2006 to show that terrestrial areas of the Arctic were a net source of 41.5 Tg CH{sub 4} yr{sup 1} that increased by 0.6 Tg CH{sub 4} yr{sup 1} during the decade of analysis, a magnitude that is comparable with an atmospheric inversion of CH{sub 4}; improved the quantification of CH{sub 4} fluxes in the Arctic with inversion methods; evaluated AIRS CH4 retrieval data with a transport and inversion model and surface flux and aircraft data; to better quantify methane emissions from wetlands, we extended the MDM within a biogeochemistry model, the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM), to include a large-scale hydrology model, the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model; more recently, we developed a single box atmospheric chemistry model involving atmospheric methane (CH{sub 4}), carbon monoxide (CO) and radical hydroxyl (OH) to analyze atmospheric CH{sub 4} concentrations from 1984 to 2008.

  17. Examining the potential impact of a warming ocean on food insecure Africa: concerns and mechanisms for abrupt climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Funk, C.; Dettinger, M.; Verdin, J.

    2007-12-01

    Given that more than 200 million sub-Saharan Africans are food insecure, abrupt climate change in Africa could be devastating. Recent observations for eastern and southern Africa suggest substantial declines in main growing season rainfall over the past 20 years. In this talk we present research from a multi-year study that examined the causes and implications of these drying trends. Our statistical and dynamic modeling results suggest that warming in the Indian Ocean has been linked to increased oceanic convection and disruptions in onshore moisture transports. These moisture transport disruptions, in turn, are probably associated with an increased frequency in agricultural drought in sub-tropical countries along Africa's eastern seaboard. This 'warm ocean-dry Africa' dipole appears to be a major driver of decadal variability. An evaluation of 11 climate change models suggests that increased tropical Indian Ocean precipitation, and the associated moisture transport disruptions, may in fact be anthropogenic, accounting for at least part of the regional drought tendencies in eastern and southern Africa over the past 20 years. These simulations also suggest continued increases in oceanic convection will be very likely over the next century. This diabatic forcing will likely produce continuing rainfall declines across 7 food insecure nations. These drying trends, combined with declining per capita agricultural capacity, are likely to contribute to a ~250 percent increase in food shortages over the next 30 years. Modest agricultural and market development, however, could alleviate the food problem substantially.

  18. Changes in body core temperatures and heat balance after an abrupt release of lower body negative pressure in humans

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tanabe, Minoru; Shido, Osamu

    1994-03-01

    Changes in body core temperature ( T cor) and heat balance after an abrupt release of lower body negative pressure (LBNP) were investigated in 5 volunteers under the following conditions: (1) an ambient temperature ( T a) of 20 °C or (2) 35 °C, and (3) T a of 25 °C with a leg skin temperature of 30°C or (4) 35°C. The leg skin temperature was controlled with water perfusion devices wound around the legs. Rectal ( T re), tympanic ( T ty) and esophageal ( T es) temperatures, skin temperatures (7 sites) and oxygen consumption were measured. The intensity of LBNP was adjusted so that the amount of blood pooled in the legs was the same under all conditions. When a thermal balance was attained during LBNP, application of LBNP was suddenly halted. The skin temperatures increased significantly after the release of LBNP under all conditions, while oxygen consumption hardly changed. The release of LBNP caused significant falls in T cor s under conditions (1) and (3), but lowered T cor s very slightly under conditions (2) and (4). The changes in T es were always more rapid and greater than those of T ty and T re. The falls in T ty and T re appeared to be explained by changes in heat balance, whereas the sharp drop of T es could not be explained especially during the first 8 min after the release of LBNP. The results suggest that a fall in T cor after a release of LBNP is attributed to an increase in heat loss due to reflexive skin vasodilation and is dependent on the temperature of venous blood returning from the lower body. It is presumed that T es may not be an appropriate indicator for T cor when venous return changes rapidly.

  19. Could Have Gone Wrong: Effects of Abrupt Changes in Migratory Behaviour on Harvest in a Waterbird Population.

    PubMed

    Madsen, Jesper; Christensen, Thomas Kjær; Balsby, Thorsten J S; Tombre, Ingunn M

    2015-01-01

    To sustainably exploit a population, it is crucial to understand and reduce uncertainties about population processes and effects of harvest. In migratory species, management is challenged by geographically separated changing environmental conditions, which may cause unexpected changes in species distribution and harvest. We describe the development in the harvest of Svalbard-breeding pink-footed geese (Anser brachyrhynchus) in relation to the observed trajectory and migratory behaviour of the population. In autumn, geese migrate via stopover sites in Norway and Denmark (where they are hunted) to wintering grounds in the Netherlands and Belgium (where they are protected). In Denmark and Norway harvesting increased stepwise during the 2000s. The increase in the population size only partly explained the change. The change corresponded to a simultaneous stepwise increase in numbers of geese staging in Denmark throughout autumn and winter; geese also moved further inland to feed which collectively increased their exposure to hunting. In Norway the increase in harvest reflected greater utilisation of lowland farmland areas by geese, increasing their hunting exposure. The study demonstrates how changes in migratory behaviour can abruptly affect exposure to hunting, which showed a functional response to increased temporal and spatial availability of geese. The harvest has now reached a level likely to cause a population decline. It highlights the need for flexible, internationally coordinated hunting regulations and reliable up-to-date population estimates and hunting bag statistics, which are rare in European management of migratory waterbirds. Without such information decisions are left with judgments based on population estimates, which often have time lags of several years between recording and reporting, hampering possibilities for the timely adjustment of management actions. PMID:26247849

  20. Could Have Gone Wrong: Effects of Abrupt Changes in Migratory Behaviour on Harvest in a Waterbird Population

    PubMed Central

    Madsen, Jesper; Christensen, Thomas Kjær; Balsby, Thorsten J. S.; Tombre, Ingunn M.

    2015-01-01

    To sustainably exploit a population, it is crucial to understand and reduce uncertainties about population processes and effects of harvest. In migratory species, management is challenged by geographically separated changing environmental conditions, which may cause unexpected changes in species distribution and harvest. We describe the development in the harvest of Svalbard-breeding pink-footed geese (Anser brachyrhynchus) in relation to the observed trajectory and migratory behaviour of the population. In autumn, geese migrate via stopover sites in Norway and Denmark (where they are hunted) to wintering grounds in the Netherlands and Belgium (where they are protected). In Denmark and Norway harvesting increased stepwise during the 2000s. The increase in the population size only partly explained the change. The change corresponded to a simultaneous stepwise increase in numbers of geese staging in Denmark throughout autumn and winter; geese also moved further inland to feed which collectively increased their exposure to hunting. In Norway the increase in harvest reflected greater utilisation of lowland farmland areas by geese, increasing their hunting exposure. The study demonstrates how changes in migratory behaviour can abruptly affect exposure to hunting, which showed a functional response to increased temporal and spatial availability of geese. The harvest has now reached a level likely to cause a population decline. It highlights the need for flexible, internationally coordinated hunting regulations and reliable up-to-date population estimates and hunting bag statistics, which are rare in European management of migratory waterbirds. Without such information decisions are left with judgments based on population estimates, which often have time lags of several years between recording and reporting, hampering possibilities for the timely adjustment of management actions. PMID:26247849

  1. Abrupt climate change at the end of the last glacial period inferred from trapped air in polar Ice

    PubMed

    Severinghaus; Brook

    1999-10-29

    The last glacial period was terminated by an abrupt warming event in the North Atlantic approximately 15,000 years before the present, and warming events of similar age have been reported from low latitudes. Understanding the mechanism of this termination requires that the precise relative timing of abrupt climate warming in the tropics versus the North Atlantic be known. Nitrogen and argon isotopes in trapped air in Greenland ice show that the Greenland Summit warmed 9 +/- 3 degrees C over a period of several decades, beginning 14,672 years ago. Atmospheric methane concentrations rose abruptly over a approximately 50-year period and began their increase 20 to 30 years after the onset of the abrupt Greenland warming. These data suggest that tropical climate became warmer or wetter (or both) approximately 20 to 80 years after the onset of Greenland warming, supporting a North Atlantic rather than a tropical trigger for the climate event.

  2. Abrupt temperature changes and contrasted hydrological responses during Greenland Stadial 1 in northern Iberia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bartolomé, Miguel; Moreno, Ana; Sancho, Carlos; Stoll, Heather; Cacho, Isabel; Spötl, Christoph; Edwards, R. Lawrence; Cheng, Hai; Hellstrom, John

    2016-04-01

    Greenland Stadial 1 (GS-1) was the last of a long series of severe cooling episodes in the Northern Hemisphere during the last glacial period, whose origin is attributed to the complex interaction of intense weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, moderate negative radiative forcing and an altered atmospheric circulation (Renssen et al., 2015). As a result, marine and terrestrial records from the North Atlantic region indicate a cooling of several degrees, being larger in high latitudes (up to 4° C) and diminishing towards the southeast (0.5° C) (Heiri et al., 2014). Here, we present the first stalagmite record that covers the entire GS-1 period in Southern Europe, providing an excellent and independent chronological framework and a high-resolution climate reconstruction of this event (Bartolomé et al., 2015). The stalagmite is from Seso Cave from the central Pyrenees (42° 27'23.08''N, 0° 02'23.18''E, 794 m asl) where a 3-year monitoring survey, together with the analyses of actively growing modern stalagmites, allows climate proxies in stalagmites to be calibrated to the instrumental record. Thus, analysis of oxygen isotopes in a modern stalagmite from Seso Cave suggests a strong dependence on air temperature through its influence on rainfall δ18O, providing a reliable proxy for the temperature evolution during GS-1. According to these calculations, the δ18O change of 2.14‰ during GS-1 is considered to represent a 1.3 ° C drop of the annual temperature. Besides reflecting GS-1 cooling in the Pyrenees, the Seso Cave stalagmite is used here to investigate the timing and forcing of a mid-GS-1 climate transition previously reported from northern European records (Lane et al., 2012). δ13C and Mg/Ca of Seso samples show higher values between 12,920 y b2k and 12,500 y b2k, a gradual decrease until ca. 12,000 y b2k, and a period with lower values until the Holocene onset at 11,700 y b2k. This pattern, although still at low resolution due

  3. Monitoring channel head erosion processes in response to an artificially induced abrupt base level change using time-lapse photography 2301

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Headcut and channel extension in response to an abrupt base level change in 2004 of approximately 1m was studied in a 1.29 ha semiarid headwater drainage on the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed (WGEW) in southeastern Arizona, USA. Field observations and time-lapse photography were coupled with hy...

  4. Abrupt climate change around 4 ka BP: Role of the Thermohaline circulation as indicated by a GCM experiment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Shaowu; Zhou, Tianjun; Cai, Jingning; Zhu, Jinhong; Xie, Zhihui; Gong, Daoyi

    2004-04-01

    A great deal of palaeoenvironmental and palaeoclimatic evidence suggests that a predominant temperature drop and an aridification occurred at ca. 4.0 ka BP. Palaeoclimate studies in China support this dedution. The collapse of ancient civilizations at ca. 4.0 ka BP in the Nile Valley and Mesopotamia has been attributed to climate-induced aridification. A widespread alternation of the ancient cultures was also found in China at ca. 4.0 ka BP in concert with the collapse of the civilizations in the Old World. Palaeoclimatic studies indicate that the abrupt climate change at 4.0 ka BP is one of the realizations of the cold phase in millennial scale climate oscillations, which may be related to the modulation of the Thermohaline Circulation (THC) over the Atlantic Ocean. Therefore, this study conducts a numerical experiment of a GCM with SST forcing to simulate the impact of the weakening of the THC. Results show a drop in temperature from North Europe, the northern middle East Asia, and northern East Asia and a significant reduction of precipitation in East Africa, the Middle East, the Indian Peninsula, and the Yellow River Valley. This seems to support the idea that coldness and aridification at ca. 4.0 ka BP was caused by the weakening of the THC.

  5. An abrupt centennial-scale drought event and mid-holocene climate change patterns in monsoon marginal zones of East Asia.

    PubMed

    Li, Yu; Wang, Nai'ang; Zhang, Chengqi

    2014-01-01

    The mid-latitudes of East Asia are characterized by the interaction between the Asian summer monsoon and the westerly winds. Understanding long-term climate change in the marginal regions of the Asian monsoon is critical for understanding the millennial-scale interactions between the Asian monsoon and the westerly winds. Abrupt climate events are always associated with changes in large-scale circulation patterns; therefore, investigations into abrupt climate changes provide clues for responses of circulation patterns to extreme climate events. In this paper, we examined the time scale and mid-Holocene climatic background of an abrupt dry mid-Holocene event in the Shiyang River drainage basin in the northwest margin of the Asian monsoon. Mid-Holocene lacustrine records were collected from the middle reaches and the terminal lake of the basin. Using radiocarbon and OSL ages, a centennial-scale drought event, which is characterized by a sand layer in lacustrine sediments both from the middle and lower reaches of the basin, was absolutely dated between 8.0-7.0 cal kyr BP. Grain size data suggest an abrupt decline in lake level and a dry environment in the middle reaches of the basin during the dry interval. Previous studies have shown mid-Holocene drought events in other places of monsoon marginal zones; however, their chronologies are not strong enough to study the mechanism. According to the absolutely dated records, we proposed a new hypothesis that the mid-Holocene dry interval can be related to the weakening Asian summer monsoon and the relatively arid environment in arid Central Asia. Furthermore, abrupt dry climatic events are directly linked to the basin-wide effective moisture change in semi-arid and arid regions. Effective moisture is affected by basin-wide precipitation, evapotranspiration, lake surface evaporation and other geographical settings. As a result, the time scales of the dry interval could vary according to locations due to different geographical

  6. An abrupt centennial-scale drought event and mid-holocene climate change patterns in monsoon marginal zones of East Asia.

    PubMed

    Li, Yu; Wang, Nai'ang; Zhang, Chengqi

    2014-01-01

    The mid-latitudes of East Asia are characterized by the interaction between the Asian summer monsoon and the westerly winds. Understanding long-term climate change in the marginal regions of the Asian monsoon is critical for understanding the millennial-scale interactions between the Asian monsoon and the westerly winds. Abrupt climate events are always associated with changes in large-scale circulation patterns; therefore, investigations into abrupt climate changes provide clues for responses of circulation patterns to extreme climate events. In this paper, we examined the time scale and mid-Holocene climatic background of an abrupt dry mid-Holocene event in the Shiyang River drainage basin in the northwest margin of the Asian monsoon. Mid-Holocene lacustrine records were collected from the middle reaches and the terminal lake of the basin. Using radiocarbon and OSL ages, a centennial-scale drought event, which is characterized by a sand layer in lacustrine sediments both from the middle and lower reaches of the basin, was absolutely dated between 8.0-7.0 cal kyr BP. Grain size data suggest an abrupt decline in lake level and a dry environment in the middle reaches of the basin during the dry interval. Previous studies have shown mid-Holocene drought events in other places of monsoon marginal zones; however, their chronologies are not strong enough to study the mechanism. According to the absolutely dated records, we proposed a new hypothesis that the mid-Holocene dry interval can be related to the weakening Asian summer monsoon and the relatively arid environment in arid Central Asia. Furthermore, abrupt dry climatic events are directly linked to the basin-wide effective moisture change in semi-arid and arid regions. Effective moisture is affected by basin-wide precipitation, evapotranspiration, lake surface evaporation and other geographical settings. As a result, the time scales of the dry interval could vary according to locations due to different geographical

  7. An Abrupt Centennial-Scale Drought Event and Mid-Holocene Climate Change Patterns in Monsoon Marginal Zones of East Asia

    PubMed Central

    Li, Yu; Wang, Nai'ang; Zhang, Chengqi

    2014-01-01

    The mid-latitudes of East Asia are characterized by the interaction between the Asian summer monsoon and the westerly winds. Understanding long-term climate change in the marginal regions of the Asian monsoon is critical for understanding the millennial-scale interactions between the Asian monsoon and the westerly winds. Abrupt climate events are always associated with changes in large-scale circulation patterns; therefore, investigations into abrupt climate changes provide clues for responses of circulation patterns to extreme climate events. In this paper, we examined the time scale and mid-Holocene climatic background of an abrupt dry mid-Holocene event in the Shiyang River drainage basin in the northwest margin of the Asian monsoon. Mid-Holocene lacustrine records were collected from the middle reaches and the terminal lake of the basin. Using radiocarbon and OSL ages, a centennial-scale drought event, which is characterized by a sand layer in lacustrine sediments both from the middle and lower reaches of the basin, was absolutely dated between 8.0–7.0 cal kyr BP. Grain size data suggest an abrupt decline in lake level and a dry environment in the middle reaches of the basin during the dry interval. Previous studies have shown mid-Holocene drought events in other places of monsoon marginal zones; however, their chronologies are not strong enough to study the mechanism. According to the absolutely dated records, we proposed a new hypothesis that the mid-Holocene dry interval can be related to the weakening Asian summer monsoon and the relatively arid environment in arid Central Asia. Furthermore, abrupt dry climatic events are directly linked to the basin-wide effective moisture change in semi-arid and arid regions. Effective moisture is affected by basin-wide precipitation, evapotranspiration, lake surface evaporation and other geographical settings. As a result, the time scales of the dry interval could vary according to locations due to different

  8. Microbial Community Dynamics from Permafrost Across the Pleistocene-Holocene Boundary and Response to Abrupt Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hammad, A.; Mahony, M.; Froese, D. G.; Lanoil, B. D.

    2014-12-01

    Earth is currently undergoing rapid warming similar to that observed about 10,000 years ago at the end of the Pleistocene. We know a considerable amount about the adaptations and extinctions of mammals and plants at the Pleistocene/Holocene (P/H) boundary, but relatively little about changes at the microbial level. Due to permafrost soils' freezing anoxic conditions, they act as microbial diversity archives allowing us to determine how microbial communities adapted to the abrupt warming at the end of P. Since microbial community composition only helps differentiate viable and extant microorganisms in frozen permafrost, microbial activity in thawing permafrost must be investigated to provide a clear understanding of microbial response to climate change. Current increased temperatures will result in warming and potential thaw of permafrost and release of stored organic carbon, freeing it for microbial utilization; turning permafrost into a carbon source. Studying permafrost viable microbial communities' diversity and activity will provide a better understanding of how these microorganisms respond to soil edaphic variability due to climate change across the P/H boundary, providing insight into the changes that the soil community is currently undergoing in this modern era of rapid climate change. Modern soil, H and P permafrost cores were collected from Lucky Lady II site outside Dawson City, Yukon. 16S rRNA high throughput sequencing of permafrost DNA showed the same trends for total and viable community richness and diversity with both decreasing with permafrost depth and only the richness increasing in mid and early P. The modern, H and P soils had 50.9, 33.9, and 27.3% unique viable species and only 14% of the total number of viable species were shared by all soils. Gas flux measurements of thawed permafrost showed metabolic activity in modern and permafrost soils, aerobic CH­­4 consumption in modern, some H and P soils, and anaerobic CH­­4 production in one H

  9. Abrupt Sea Surface Temperature changes during The Last Glacial-Interglacial Transition in the Iberian margin: Sea Level implications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodrigues, Teresa; Grimalt, Joan; Abrantes, Fatima; Naughton, Filipa; Flores, José-Abel

    2010-05-01

    Uk'37-SST and organic terrestrial biomarkers were used to reconstruct Sea surface temperature (SST) and continental input in a shallow core (D13882) from the Tagus mud patch (Iberian margin) during last glacial and interglacial transition (LGIT). In the western Iberian margin the Heinrich 1 (H1) and the Younger Dryas (YD) represent two extreme episodes of cold sea surface temperature conditions mediated by a marine warm phase that coincides with the Bolling-Allerod event (B-A) in the neighbor continent. Following the YD event, an abrupt sea surface warming marks the beginning of the Holocene in this region. However, SST values and amplitude of variation recorded in core D13882 differ from deep sea core MD03- 2699 and other available palaeoclimate sequences from this region. While the SST values from most deep sea cores reflect the latitudinal gradient detected on the Iberian Peninsula during H1 and B-A, the shallow core (D13882) SSTs are colder than the ones recorded in the deep sea. This suggests that a supplementary input of cold freshwater coming from the continent reached shallow areas. This hypothesis is supported by the high terrigenous biomarkers and total organic carbon content as well as by the dominance of tetra alkenone in the Tagus mud patch. Furthermore, the comparison of all western Iberia SST records suggest that the SST increase during the B-A event started 1,000 yr before the meltwater pulse 1A (mwp-1A) and attained maximum values during or slightly after this sea level rise episode. Conversely, the sharp SST increase in the Iberian margin during the YD/Holocene transition, is synchronous with the meltwater pulse 1B (mwp-1B). The decrease of continental input in the Tagus mud patch confirms a sea level rise in the region. Thus, the synchronism between the maximum warming in the mid-latitudes of the western Iberian margin, in the adjacent landmasses and temperature in Greenland suggest that the mwp-1B, could have been initiated in the Northern

  10. Inadvertent arterial insertion of a central venous catheter: delayed recognition with abrupt changes in pressure waveform during surgery -A case report-.

    PubMed

    Choi, Yong Sun; Park, Ji Young; Kwak, Young Lan; Lee, Jong Wha

    2011-01-01

    We present a case of inadvertent arterial insertion of a central venous catheter, identified during a pericardiectomy procedure after observing abrupt changes in pressure waveform and confirmed via arterial blood gas analysis and transesophageal echocardiography. Central venous pressure measurement was initially 20 mmHg in supine, and then elevated to 30-40 mmHg in right lateral decubitus, presumably resulting from constrictive physiology of pericarditis. The pressure waveforms, however, abruptly changed from a venous to an arterial waveform during surgery. When visual discrimination between arterial and venous blood regurgitation is unreliable, anesthesiologists should confirm that using all the available methods one has on the scene, especially after at least two unsuccessful attempts or in patients with advanced age or clinical conditions resulting in jugular venous dilation. To prevent arterial catheterization, one should limit the leftward rotation of the head by <40° and consider using ultrasound-guided method after more than two unsuccessful attempts.

  11. Statistical evaluation of the significance of the influence of abrupt changes in solar activity on the dynamics of the epidemic process

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Druzhinin, I. P.; Khamyanova, N. V.; Yagodinskiy, V. N.

    1974-01-01

    Statistical evaluations of the significance of the relationship of abrupt changes in solar activity and discontinuities in the multi-year pattern of an epidemic process are reported. They reliably (with probability of more than 99.9%) show the real nature of this relationship and its great specific weight (about half) in the formation of discontinuities in the multi-year pattern of the processes in question.

  12. Change-point detection for recursive Bayesian geoacoustic inversions.

    PubMed

    Tan, Bien Aik; Gerstoft, Peter; Yardim, Caglar; Hodgkiss, William S

    2015-04-01

    In order to carry out geoacoustic inversion in low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) conditions, extended duration observations coupled with source and/or receiver motion may be necessary. As a result, change in the underlying model parameters due to time or space is anticipated. In this paper, an inversion method is proposed for cases when the model parameters change abruptly or slowly. A model parameter change-point detection method is developed to detect the change in the model parameters using the importance samples and corresponding weights that are already available from the recursive Bayesian inversion. If the model parameters change abruptly, a change-point will be detected and the inversion will restart with the pulse measurement after the change-point. If the model parameters change gradually, the inversion (based on constant model parameters) may proceed until the accumulated model parameter mismatch is significant and triggers the detection of a change-point. These change-point detections form the heuristics for controlling the coherent integration time in recursive Bayesian inversion. The method is demonstrated in simulation with parameters corresponding to the low SNR, 100-900 Hz linear frequency modulation pulses observed in the Shallow Water 2006 experiment [Tan, Gerstoft, Yardim, and Hodgkiss, J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 136, 1187-1198 (2014)].

  13. SAR change detection MTI

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scarborough, Steven; Lemanski, Christopher; Nichols, Howard; Owirka, Gregory; Minardi, Michael; Hale, Todd

    2006-05-01

    This paper examines the theory, application, and results of using single-channel synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data with Moving Reference Processing (MRP) to focus and geolocate moving targets. Moving targets within a standard SAR imaging scene are defocused, displaced, or completely missing in the final image. Building on previous research at AFRL, the SAR-MRP method focuses and geolocates moving targets by reprocessing the SAR data to focus the movers rather than the stationary clutter. SAR change detection is used so that target detection and focusing is performed more robustly. In the cases where moving target returns possess the same range versus slow-time histories, a geolocation ambiguity results. This ambiguity can be resolved in a number of ways. This paper concludes by applying the SAR-MRP method to high-frequency radar measurements from persistent continuous-dwell SAR observations of a moving target.

  14. Cortical dynamics of visual change detection based on sensory memory.

    PubMed

    Urakawa, Tomokazu; Inui, Koji; Yamashiro, Koya; Tanaka, Emi; Kakigi, Ryusuke

    2010-08-01

    Detecting a visual change was suggested to relate closely to the visual sensory memory formed by visual stimuli before the occurrence of the change, because change detection involves identifying a difference between ongoing and preceding sensory conditions. Previous neuroimaging studies showed that an abrupt visual change activates the middle occipital gyrus (MOG). However, it still remains to be elucidated whether the MOG is related to visual change detection based on sensory memory. Here we tried to settle this issue using a new method of stimulation with blue and red LEDs to emphasize a memory-based change detection process. There were two stimuli, a standard trial stimulus and a deviant trial stimulus. The former was a red light lasting 500 ms, and the latter was a red light lasting 250 ms immediately followed by a blue light lasting 250 ms. Effects of the trial-trial interval, 250 approximately 2000 ms, were investigated to know how cortical responses to the abrupt change (from red to blue) were affected by preceding conditions. The brain response to the deviant trial stimulus was recorded by magnetoencephalography. Results of a multi-dipole analysis showed that the activity in the MOG, peaking at around 150 ms after the change onset, decreased in amplitude as the interval increased, but the earlier activity in BA 17/18 was not affected by the interval. These results suggested that the MOG is an important cortical area relating to the sensory memory-based visual change-detecting system.

  15. Detecting and predicting changes.

    PubMed

    Brown, Scott D; Steyvers, Mark

    2009-02-01

    When required to predict sequential events, such as random coin tosses or basketball free throws, people reliably use inappropriate strategies, such as inferring temporal structure when none is present. We investigate the ability of observers to predict sequential events in dynamically changing environments, where there is an opportunity to detect true temporal structure. In two experiments we demonstrate that participants often make correct statistical decisions when asked to infer the hidden state of the data generating process. However, when asked to make predictions about future outcomes, accuracy decreased even though normatively correct responses in the two tasks were identical. A particle filter model accounts for all data, describing performance in terms of a plausible psychological process. By varying the number of particles, and the prior belief about the probability of a change occurring in the data generating process, we were able to model most of the observed individual differences.

  16. Change detection: training and transfer.

    PubMed

    Gaspar, John G; Neider, Mark B; Simons, Daniel J; McCarley, Jason S; Kramer, Arthur F

    2013-01-01

    Observers often fail to notice even dramatic changes to their environment, a phenomenon known as change blindness. If training could enhance change detection performance in general, then it might help to remedy some real-world consequences of change blindness (e.g. failing to detect hazards while driving). We examined whether adaptive training on a simple change detection task could improve the ability to detect changes in untrained tasks for young and older adults. Consistent with an effective training procedure, both young and older adults were better able to detect changes to trained objects following training. However, neither group showed differential improvement on untrained change detection tasks when compared to active control groups. Change detection training led to improvements on the trained task but did not generalize to other change detection tasks.

  17. Change Detection: Training and Transfer

    PubMed Central

    Gaspar, John G.; Neider, Mark B.; Simons, Daniel J.; McCarley, Jason S.; Kramer, Arthur F.

    2013-01-01

    Observers often fail to notice even dramatic changes to their environment, a phenomenon known as change blindness. If training could enhance change detection performance in general, then it might help to remedy some real-world consequences of change blindness (e.g. failing to detect hazards while driving). We examined whether adaptive training on a simple change detection task could improve the ability to detect changes in untrained tasks for young and older adults. Consistent with an effective training procedure, both young and older adults were better able to detect changes to trained objects following training. However, neither group showed differential improvement on untrained change detection tasks when compared to active control groups. Change detection training led to improvements on the trained task but did not generalize to other change detection tasks. PMID:23840775

  18. Abrupt Climate Change and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: sensitivity and non-linear response to Arctic/sub-Arctic freshwater pulses. Collaborative research. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Hill, Christopher

    2015-06-15

    This project investigated possible mechanisms by which melt-water pulses can induce abrupt change in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) magnitude. AMOC magnitude is an important ingredient in present day climate. Previous studies have hypothesized abrupt reduction in AMOC magnitude in response to influxes of glacial melt water into the North Atlantic. Notable fresh-water influxes are associated with the terminus of the last ice age. During this period large volumes of melt water accumulated behind retreating ice sheets and subsequently drained rapidly when the ice weakened sufficiently. Rapid draining of glacial lakes into the North Atlantic is a possible origin of a number of paleo-record abrupt climate shifts. These include the Younger-Dryas cooling event and the 8,200 year cooling event. The studies undertaken focused on whether the mechanistic sequence by which glacial melt-water impacts AMOC, which then impacts Northern Hemisphere global mean surface temperature, is dynamically plausible. The work has implications for better understanding past climate stability. The work also has relevance for today’s environment, in which high-latitude ice melting in Greenland appears to be driving fresh water outflows at an accelerating pace.

  19. Speed and Magnitude of Abrupt Climate Change at 8,200 yrs B.P. from the Greenland Ice Core (GISP2)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kobashi, T.; Severinghaus, J. P.; Brook, E. J.; Grachev, A.

    2003-12-01

    At ˜8,200 years before present, an abrupt climate change occurred, which is believed to be the largest in the past 10,000 years. The scale of the event was probably global, as seen in reduced atmospheric methane concentration and paleoclimatic evidence around the globe indicating drying and cooling trends. The timing of the climate change also coincides with widespread abandonment of villages in southwestern Asia, which marks the end of the Pre-Pottery Neolithic B (PPNB) interval. Owing to the similarity between the warm early-Holocene and the projected warmer future climate, the 8.2 k event provides us an invaluable test case for a future potential abrupt climate change. We reconstructed the speed and magnitude of temperature change at the event, using argon and nitrogen isotopes in trapped air from the Greenland ice core coupled with the oxygen isotope record of ice. This method makes use of two isotopic fractionations, gravitational and thermal, which occur within the firn layer (snow layer above the air bubble close-off depth). The analyses of argon and nitrogen isotopes can separate the two effects, and allows us to directly retrieve temperature information (Severinghaus et al., Nature, v. 391, 141, 1998). The magnitude of temperature change in central Greenland at 8.2kyr B.P. is preliminarily estimated to be 5 +/- 2 ° C for the decadal average with the experimentally determined thermal diffusion constants (Grachev and Severinghaus, Geochim. et Cosmochim. Acta, v.67, 345, 2003; J. Phys. Chem., v.107, 4636, 2003), implying an oxygen isotope-temperature coefficient, α , of ˜0.4 permil/° C. Using oxygen isotope record of ice and α , we estimate that the abrupt cooling took place within ˜5 years with an 'instantaneous' magnitude of ˜8° C, and climate was locked in the cold phase for ˜60 years. In addition, we plan to measure methane concentration in trapped air, which will constrain the mechanisms of the abrupt climate change.

  20. The Development of Change Detection

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shore, David I.; Burack, Jacob A.; Miller, Danny; Joseph, Shari; Enns, James T.

    2006-01-01

    Changes to a scene often go unnoticed if the objects of the change are unattended, making change detection an index of where attention is focused during scene perception. We measured change detection in school-age children and young adults by repeatedly alternating two versions of an image. To provide an age-fair assessment we used a bimanual…

  1. Work More? The 8.2 kaBP Abrupt Climate Change Event and the Origins of Irrigation Agriculture and Surplus Agro-Production in Mesopotamia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weiss, H.

    2003-12-01

    The West Asian archaeological record is of sufficient transparency and resolution to permit observation of the social responses to the major Holocene abrupt climate change events at 8.2, 5.2 and 4.2 kaBP. The 8.2kaBP abrupt climate change event in West Asia was a three hundred year aridification and cooling episode. During this period rain-fed agriculture, established for over a millennium in northern Mesopotamia, suddenly collapsed. Irrigation agriculture, pastoral nomadism, or migration were the only subsistence alternatives for populations previously supported by cereal dry-farming. Irrigation agriculture was not, however, possible along the northern alluvial plains of the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers, where incised riverbeds were several meters below plain level. Exploitable plain-level levees were only accessible in southern-most alluvial plain, at the head of the present-day Persian Gulf. The archaeological data from this region documents the first irrigation agriculture settlement of the plain during the 8.2 kaBP event. Irrigation agriculture provides about twice the yield of dry-farming in Mesopotamia, but at considerable labor costs relative to dry-farming. With irrigation agriculture surplus production was now available for deployment. But why work more? The 8.2 kaBP event provided the natural force for Mesopotamian irrigation agriculture and surplus production that were essential for the earliest class-formation and urban life.

  2. The last glacial-interglacial transition (LGIT) in the western mid-latitudes of the North Atlantic: Abrupt sea surface temperature change and sea level implications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodrigues, Teresa; Grimalt, Joan O.; Abrantes, Fátima; Naughton, Filipa; Flores, José-Abel

    2010-07-01

    High resolution reconstructions of sea surface temperature (U k'37-SST), coccolithophore associations and continental input (total organic carbon, higher plant n-alkanes, n-alkan-1-ols) in core D13882 from the shallow Tagus mud patch are compared to SST records from deep-sea core MD03-2699 and other western Iberian Margin cores. Results reveal millennial-scale climate variability over the last deglaciation, in particular during the LGIT. In the Iberian margin, Heinrich event 1 (H1) and the Younger Dryas (YD) represent two extreme episodes of cold sea surface condition separated by a marine warm phase that coincides with the Bølling-Allerød interval (B-A) on the neighboring continent. Following the YD event, an abrupt sea surface warming marks the beginning of the Holocene in this region. SSTs recorded in core D13882 changed, however, faster than those at deep-sea site MD03-2699 and at the other available palaeoclimate sequences from the region. While the SST values from most deep-sea cores reflect the latitudinal gradient detected in the Iberian Peninsula atmospheric temperature proxies during H1 and the B-A, the Tagus mud patch (core D13882) experienced colder SSTs during both events. This is most certainly related to a supplementary input of cold freshwater from the continent to the Tagus mud patch, a hypothesis supported by the high contents of terrigenous biomarkers and total organic carbon as well as by the dominance of tetra-unsaturated alkenone (C 37:4) observed at this site. The comparison of all western Iberia SST records suggests that the SST increase that characterizes the B-A event in this region started 1000 yr before meltwater pulse 1A (mwp-1A) and reached its maximum values during or slightly after this episode of substantial sea-level rise. In contrast, during the YD/Holocene transition, the sharp SST rise in the Tagus mud patch is synchronous with meltwater pulse 1B. The decrease of continental input to the mud patch confirms a sea level rise in

  3. Abrupt changes in the patterns and complexity of anterior cingulate cortex activity when food is introduced into an environment

    PubMed Central

    Caracheo, Barak F.; Emberly, Eldon; Hadizadeh, Shirin; Hyman, James M.; Seamans, Jeremy K.

    2013-01-01

    Foraging typically involves two distinct phases, an exploration phase where an organism explores its local environment in search of needed resources and an exploitation phase where a discovered resource is consumed. The behavior and cognitive requirements of exploration and exploitation are quite different and yet organisms can quickly and efficiently switch between them many times during a foraging bout. The present study investigated neural activity state dynamics in the anterior cingulate sub-region of the rat medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) when a reliable food source was introduced into an environment. Distinct and largely independent states were detected using a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) when food was present or absent in the environment. Measures of neural entropy or complexity decreased when rats went from exploring the environment to exploiting a reliable food source. Exploration in the absence of food was associated with many weak activity states, while bouts of food consumption were characterized by fewer stronger states. Widespread activity state changes in the mPFC may help to inform foraging decisions and focus behavior on what is currently most prominent or valuable in the environment. PMID:23745102

  4. Abrupt changes in the patterns and complexity of anterior cingulate cortex activity when food is introduced into an environment.

    PubMed

    Caracheo, Barak F; Emberly, Eldon; Hadizadeh, Shirin; Hyman, James M; Seamans, Jeremy K

    2013-01-01

    Foraging typically involves two distinct phases, an exploration phase where an organism explores its local environment in search of needed resources and an exploitation phase where a discovered resource is consumed. The behavior and cognitive requirements of exploration and exploitation are quite different and yet organisms can quickly and efficiently switch between them many times during a foraging bout. The present study investigated neural activity state dynamics in the anterior cingulate sub-region of the rat medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) when a reliable food source was introduced into an environment. Distinct and largely independent states were detected using a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) when food was present or absent in the environment. Measures of neural entropy or complexity decreased when rats went from exploring the environment to exploiting a reliable food source. Exploration in the absence of food was associated with many weak activity states, while bouts of food consumption were characterized by fewer stronger states. Widespread activity state changes in the mPFC may help to inform foraging decisions and focus behavior on what is currently most prominent or valuable in the environment.

  5. V346 Centauri: Early-type eclipsing binary with apsidal motion and abrupt change of orbital period

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mayer, Pavel; Harmanec, Petr; Wolf, Marek; Nemravová, Jana; Prša, Andrej; Frémat, Yves; Zejda, Miloslav; Liška, Jiři; Juryšek, Jakub; Hoňková, Kateřina; Mašek, Martin

    2016-06-01

    New physical elements of the early B-type eclipsing binary V346 Cen are derived using the HARPS spectra downloaded from the ESO archive and also numerous photometric observations from various sources. A model of the observed times of primary and secondary minima that fits them best is a combination of the apsidal motion and an abrupt decrease in the orbital period from 6.^d322123 to 6.^d321843 (shortening by 24 s), which occurred somewhere around JD 2 439 000. Assumption of a secularly decreasing orbital period provides a significantly worse fit. Local times of minima and the final solution of the light curve were obtained with the program PHOEBE. Radial velocities of both binary components, free of line blending, were derived via 2D cross-correlation with a program built on the principles of the program TODCOR. The oxygen lines in the secondary spectra are weaker than those in the model spectra of solar chemical composition. Using the component spectra disentangled with the program KOREL, we find that both components rotate considerably faster than would correspond to the synchronization at periastron. The apside rotation known from earlier studies is confirmed and compared to the theoretical value. Based on observations made with the ESO telescopes at the La Silla Paranal Observatory under programmes ID 083.D-0040(A), 085.C-0614(A), and 178.D-0361(B).Tables A.2-A.6 are only available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (http://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/591/A129

  6. Evaluating the Impact of Abrupt Changes in Forest Policy and Management Practices on Landscape Dynamics: Analysis of a Landsat Image Time Series in the Atlantic Northern Forest

    PubMed Central

    Legaard, Kasey R.; Sader, Steven A.; Simons-Legaard, Erin M.

    2015-01-01

    Sustainable forest management is based on functional relationships between management actions, landscape conditions, and forest values. Changes in management practices make it fundamentally more difficult to study these relationships because the impacts of current practices are difficult to disentangle from the persistent influences of past practices. Within the Atlantic Northern Forest of Maine, U.S.A., forest policy and management practices changed abruptly in the early 1990s. During the 1970s-1980s, a severe insect outbreak stimulated salvage clearcutting of large contiguous tracts of spruce-fir forest. Following clearcut regulation in 1991, management practices shifted abruptly to near complete dependence on partial harvesting. Using a time series of Landsat satellite imagery (1973-2010) we assessed cumulative landscape change caused by these very different management regimes. We modeled predominant temporal patterns of harvesting and segmented a large study area into groups of landscape units with similar harvest histories. Time series of landscape composition and configuration metrics averaged within groups revealed differences in landscape dynamics caused by differences in management history. In some groups (24% of landscape units), salvage caused rapid loss and subdivision of intact mature forest. Persistent landscape change was created by large salvage clearcuts (often averaging > 100 ha) and conversion of spruce-fir to deciduous and mixed forest. In groups that were little affected by salvage (56% of landscape units), contemporary partial harvesting caused loss and subdivision of intact mature forest at even greater rates. Patch shape complexity and edge density reached high levels even where cumulative harvest area was relatively low. Contemporary practices introduced more numerous and much smaller patches of stand-replacing disturbance (typically averaging <15 ha) and a correspondingly large amount of edge. Management regimes impacted different areas to

  7. Evaluating the impact of abrupt changes in forest policy and management practices on landscape dynamics: analysis of a Landsat image time series in the Atlantic Northern Forest.

    PubMed

    Legaard, Kasey R; Sader, Steven A; Simons-Legaard, Erin M

    2015-01-01

    Sustainable forest management is based on functional relationships between management actions, landscape conditions, and forest values. Changes in management practices make it fundamentally more difficult to study these relationships because the impacts of current practices are difficult to disentangle from the persistent influences of past practices. Within the Atlantic Northern Forest of Maine, U.S.A., forest policy and management practices changed abruptly in the early 1990s. During the 1970s-1980s, a severe insect outbreak stimulated salvage clearcutting of large contiguous tracts of spruce-fir forest. Following clearcut regulation in 1991, management practices shifted abruptly to near complete dependence on partial harvesting. Using a time series of Landsat satellite imagery (1973-2010) we assessed cumulative landscape change caused by these very different management regimes. We modeled predominant temporal patterns of harvesting and segmented a large study area into groups of landscape units with similar harvest histories. Time series of landscape composition and configuration metrics averaged within groups revealed differences in landscape dynamics caused by differences in management history. In some groups (24% of landscape units), salvage caused rapid loss and subdivision of intact mature forest. Persistent landscape change was created by large salvage clearcuts (often averaging > 100 ha) and conversion of spruce-fir to deciduous and mixed forest. In groups that were little affected by salvage (56% of landscape units), contemporary partial harvesting caused loss and subdivision of intact mature forest at even greater rates. Patch shape complexity and edge density reached high levels even where cumulative harvest area was relatively low. Contemporary practices introduced more numerous and much smaller patches of stand-replacing disturbance (typically averaging <15 ha) and a correspondingly large amount of edge. Management regimes impacted different areas to

  8. Evaluating the impact of abrupt changes in forest policy and management practices on landscape dynamics: analysis of a Landsat image time series in the Atlantic Northern Forest.

    PubMed

    Legaard, Kasey R; Sader, Steven A; Simons-Legaard, Erin M

    2015-01-01

    Sustainable forest management is based on functional relationships between management actions, landscape conditions, and forest values. Changes in management practices make it fundamentally more difficult to study these relationships because the impacts of current practices are difficult to disentangle from the persistent influences of past practices. Within the Atlantic Northern Forest of Maine, U.S.A., forest policy and management practices changed abruptly in the early 1990s. During the 1970s-1980s, a severe insect outbreak stimulated salvage clearcutting of large contiguous tracts of spruce-fir forest. Following clearcut regulation in 1991, management practices shifted abruptly to near complete dependence on partial harvesting. Using a time series of Landsat satellite imagery (1973-2010) we assessed cumulative landscape change caused by these very different management regimes. We modeled predominant temporal patterns of harvesting and segmented a large study area into groups of landscape units with similar harvest histories. Time series of landscape composition and configuration metrics averaged within groups revealed differences in landscape dynamics caused by differences in management history. In some groups (24% of landscape units), salvage caused rapid loss and subdivision of intact mature forest. Persistent landscape change was created by large salvage clearcuts (often averaging > 100 ha) and conversion of spruce-fir to deciduous and mixed forest. In groups that were little affected by salvage (56% of landscape units), contemporary partial harvesting caused loss and subdivision of intact mature forest at even greater rates. Patch shape complexity and edge density reached high levels even where cumulative harvest area was relatively low. Contemporary practices introduced more numerous and much smaller patches of stand-replacing disturbance (typically averaging <15 ha) and a correspondingly large amount of edge. Management regimes impacted different areas to

  9. Trends and abrupt changes in 104 years of ice cover and water temperature in a dimictic lake in response to air temperature, wind speed, and water clarity drivers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Magee, Madeline R.; Wu, Chin H.; Robertson, Dale M.; Lathrop, Richard C.; Hamilton, David P.

    2016-05-01

    abrupt changes in air temperature and wind speed. Average summer hypolimnetic temperature and fall turnover date exhibit significant differences between the third period and the first two periods. Changes in ice cover (ice-on and ice-off dates, ice cover duration, and maximum ice thickness) exhibit an abrupt change after 1994, which was related in part to the warm El Niño winter of 1997-1998. Under-ice water temperature, freeze-over water temperature, hypolimnetic temperature, fall turnover date, and stratification duration demonstrate a significant difference in the third period (1994-2014), when air temperature was warmest and wind speeds decreased rather abruptly. The trends in ice cover and water temperature demonstrate responses to both long-term and abrupt changes in meteorological conditions that can be complemented with numerical modeling to better understand how these variables will respond in a future climate.

  10. Pregnancy Complications: Placental Abruption

    MedlinePlus

    ... page It's been added to your dashboard . The placenta attaches to the wall of the uterus (womb) ... abruption is a serious condition in which the placenta separates from the wall of the uterus before ...

  11. Abrupt climate change: Past, present and the search for precursors as an aid to predicting events in the future (Hans Oeschger Medal Lecture)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mayewski, Paul Andrew

    2016-04-01

    The demonstration using Greenland ice cores that abrupt shifts in climate, Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events, existed during the last glacial period has had a transformational impact on our understanding of climate change in the naturally forced world. The demonstration that D-O events are globally distributed and that they operated during previous glacial periods has led to extensive research into the relative hemispheric timing and causes of these events. The emergence of civilization during our current interglacial, the Holocene, has been attributed to the "relative climate quiescence" of this period relative to the massive, abrupt shifts in climate that characterized glacial periods in the form of D-O events. But, everything is relative and climate change is no exception. The demise of past civilizations, (eg., Mesopatamian, Mayan and Norse) is integrally tied to abrupt climate change (ACC) events operating at regional scales. Regionally to globally distributed ACC events have punctuated the Holocene and extreme events have always posed significant challenges to humans and ecosystems. Current warming of the Arctic, in terms of length of the summer season, is as abrupt and massive, albeit not as extensive, as the transition from the last major D-O event, the Younger Dryas into the Holocene (Mayewski et al., 2013). Tropospheric source greenhouse gas rise and ozone depletion in the stratosphere over Antarctica are triggers for the modern advent of human emission instigated ACCs. Arctic warming and Antarctic ozone depletion have resulted in significance changes to the atmospheric circulation systems that transport heat, moisture, and pollutants in both hemispheres. Climate models offer a critical tool for assessing trends, but they cannot as yet predict ACC events, as evidenced by the inability of these models to predict the rapid onset of Arctic warming and resulting changes in atmospheric circulation; and in the model vs past analog differences in projections for

  12. The Abrupt Climatic Changes During the Last Deglaciation: Direct Land-sea Correlation From a Marine Pollen Record off Southeastern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Desprat, S.; McManus, J. F.; Peteet, D.

    2007-12-01

    We present a new direct land-sea correlation covering the last deglaciation in order a) to provide a better documentation of the regional vegetation changes in southeastern North America and b) more particularly to assess the connection of the continental climatic changes to North Atlantic circulation rapid variability. It was achieved using coupled analyses of pollen and marine climatic proxies from core KNR140-GGC39 (Blake Outer Ridge) at very high time-resolution. Mg/Ca ratio, planktonic δ18O, mean "sortable silt" grain size (mean S¯S¯) were analyzed in order to get records of SST, salinity and bottom current strength at the core site (Evans et al., submitted to Paleoceanography). The abrupt climatic changes which characterize the last deglaciation, in particular the major cold oscillations Heinrich event 1 (H1) and Younger Dryas (YD), have been widely documented in the North Atlantic and adjacent continents. However, in the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic and southeastern United States, the climatic signature of these events appears quite different and somehow unclear. Our direct land-sea correlation shows three configurations: 1- H1 period: cold climatic conditions in southeastern US (high percentages of boreal and herbaceous taxa) but only extremely cold at around 17 ka, accumulation of salty water in the subtropics (high δ18OSW- IVC) and weak bottom current intensity at the site (low mean S¯S¯) 2- Bolling Alleröd interval: abrupt warming in southeastern US (decrease of boreal taxa in favour of Quercus) at the beginning, synchronous to northern export of the salty water previously accumulated and to an increase of the bottom current strength at the site 3- YD period: mild and wet conditions in southeastern US (expansion of Tsuga and Quercus), decrease of the bottom current strength at the site and accumulation of salty water in the subtropical regions but less than during H1.

  13. Global Genome Response of Escherichia coli O157∶H7 Sakai during Dynamic Changes in Growth Kinetics Induced by an Abrupt Temperature Downshift

    PubMed Central

    King, Thea; Kocharunchitt, Chawalit; Gobius, Kari; Bowman, John P.; Ross, Tom

    2014-01-01

    Escherichia coli O157∶H7 is a mesophilic food-borne pathogen. We investigated the growth kinetics of E. coli O157∶H7 Sakai during an abrupt temperature downshift from 35°C to either 20°C, 17°C, 14°C or 10°C; as well as the molecular mechanisms enabling growth after cold stress upon an abrupt downshift from 35°C to 14°C in an integrated transcriptomic and proteomic analysis. All downshifts caused a lag period of growth before growth resumed at a rate typical of the post-shift temperature. Lag and generation time increased with the magnitude of the shift or with the final temperature, while relative lag time displayed little variation across the test range. Analysis of time-dependent molecular changes revealed, in keeping with a decreased growth rate at lower temperature, repression of genes and proteins involved in DNA replication, protein synthesis and carbohydrate catabolism. Consistent with cold-induced remodelling of the bacterial cell envelope, alterations occurred in the expression of genes and proteins involved in transport and binding. The RpoS regulon exhibited sustained induction confirming its importance in adaptation and growth at 14°C. The RpoE regulon was transiently induced, indicating a potential role for this extracytoplasmic stress response system in the early phase of low temperature adaptation during lag phase. Interestingly, genes previously reported to be amongst the most highly up-regulated under oxidative stress were consistently down-regulated. This comprehensive analysis provides insight into the molecular mechanisms operating during adaptation of E. coli to growth at low temperature and is relevant to its physiological state during chilling in foods, such as carcasses. PMID:24926786

  14. Global Genome Response of Escherichia coli O157∶H7 Sakai during Dynamic Changes in Growth Kinetics Induced by an Abrupt Downshift in Water Activity

    PubMed Central

    Kocharunchitt, Chawalit; King, Thea; Gobius, Kari; Bowman, John P.; Ross, Tom

    2014-01-01

    The present study was undertaken to investigate growth kinetics and time-dependent change in global expression of Escherichia coli O157∶H7 Sakai upon an abrupt downshift in water activity (aw). Based on viable count data, shifting E. coli from aw 0.993 to aw 0.985 or less caused an apparent loss, then recovery, of culturability. Exponential growth then resumed at a rate characteristic for the aw imposed. To understand the responses of this pathogen to abrupt osmotic stress, we employed an integrated genomic and proteomic approach to characterize its cellular response during exposure to a rapid downshift but still within the growth range from aw 0.993 to aw 0.967. Of particular interest, genes and proteins with cell envelope-related functions were induced during the initial loss and subsequent recovery of culturability. This implies that cells undergo remodeling of their envelope composition, enabling them to adapt to osmotic stress. Growth at low aw, however, involved up-regulating additional genes and proteins, which are involved in the biosynthesis of specific amino acids, and carbohydrate catabolism and energy generation. This suggests their important role in facilitating growth under such stress. Finally, we highlighted the ability of E. coli to activate multiple stress responses by transiently inducing the RpoE and RpoH regulons to control protein misfolding, while simultaneously activating the master stress regulator RpoS to mediate long-term adaptation to hyperosmolality. This investigation extends our understanding of the potential mechanisms used by pathogenic E. coli to adapt, survive and grow under osmotic stress, which could potentially be exploited to aid the selection and/or development of novel strategies to inactivate this pathogen. PMID:24594867

  15. The abrupt climate change near 4,400 yr BP on the cultural transition in Yuchisi, China and its global linkage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Jianjun; Sun, Liguang; Chen, Liqi; Xu, Libin; Wang, Yuhong; Wang, Xinming

    2016-06-01

    Extreme climatic events have profound impacts on human society. Here we present the results of a study of organic biomarkers within a sedimentary section at the archaeological site of Yuchisi, eastern China, in order to reconstruct climatic variability during the Dawenkou (5,050–4,400 yr BP) and Longshan (4,400–4,000 yr BP) cultures. At ~4,400 yr BP, within the cultural transition horizon, abrupt changes in biomarkers, such as the fatty acid ratio C18:2/C18:0, 2C31/(C27 + C29), n-C18-ol and n-C30-ol, indicate the occurrence of local climate changes over the course of a few decades. These changes occurred during the transition from the Holocene warm period to a subsequent cold period which lasted for the following 600 years. This climatic shift has been recorded at numerous sites worldwide, and it is likely to have been the main cause of the widespread collapse of many isolated cultures at that time. The palaeoclimatic and archaeological data from the Yuchisi sediments may provide new insights into the relationship between climate change and prehistoric cultural transitions.

  16. The abrupt climate change near 4,400 yr BP on the cultural transition in Yuchisi, China and its global linkage.

    PubMed

    Wang, Jianjun; Sun, Liguang; Chen, Liqi; Xu, Libin; Wang, Yuhong; Wang, Xinming

    2016-01-01

    Extreme climatic events have profound impacts on human society. Here we present the results of a study of organic biomarkers within a sedimentary section at the archaeological site of Yuchisi, eastern China, in order to reconstruct climatic variability during the Dawenkou (5,050-4,400 yr BP) and Longshan (4,400-4,000 yr BP) cultures. At ~4,400 yr BP, within the cultural transition horizon, abrupt changes in biomarkers, such as the fatty acid ratio C18:2/C18:0, 2C31/(C27 + C29), n-C18-ol and n-C30-ol, indicate the occurrence of local climate changes over the course of a few decades. These changes occurred during the transition from the Holocene warm period to a subsequent cold period which lasted for the following 600 years. This climatic shift has been recorded at numerous sites worldwide, and it is likely to have been the main cause of the widespread collapse of many isolated cultures at that time. The palaeoclimatic and archaeological data from the Yuchisi sediments may provide new insights into the relationship between climate change and prehistoric cultural transitions. PMID:27283832

  17. The abrupt climate change near 4,400 yr BP on the cultural transition in Yuchisi, China and its global linkage

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Jianjun; Sun, Liguang; Chen, Liqi; Xu, Libin; Wang, Yuhong; Wang, Xinming

    2016-01-01

    Extreme climatic events have profound impacts on human society. Here we present the results of a study of organic biomarkers within a sedimentary section at the archaeological site of Yuchisi, eastern China, in order to reconstruct climatic variability during the Dawenkou (5,050–4,400 yr BP) and Longshan (4,400–4,000 yr BP) cultures. At ~4,400 yr BP, within the cultural transition horizon, abrupt changes in biomarkers, such as the fatty acid ratio C18:2/C18:0, 2C31/(C27 + C29), n-C18-ol and n-C30-ol, indicate the occurrence of local climate changes over the course of a few decades. These changes occurred during the transition from the Holocene warm period to a subsequent cold period which lasted for the following 600 years. This climatic shift has been recorded at numerous sites worldwide, and it is likely to have been the main cause of the widespread collapse of many isolated cultures at that time. The palaeoclimatic and archaeological data from the Yuchisi sediments may provide new insights into the relationship between climate change and prehistoric cultural transitions. PMID:27283832

  18. Major transcriptome re-organisation and abrupt changes in signalling, cell cycle and chromatin regulation at neural differentiation in vivo.

    PubMed

    Olivera-Martinez, Isabel; Schurch, Nick; Li, Roman A; Song, Junfang; Halley, Pamela A; Das, Raman M; Burt, Dave W; Barton, Geoffrey J; Storey, Kate G

    2014-08-01

    Here, we exploit the spatial separation of temporal events of neural differentiation in the elongating chick body axis to provide the first analysis of transcriptome change in progressively more differentiated neural cell populations in vivo. Microarray data, validated against direct RNA sequencing, identified: (1) a gene cohort characteristic of the multi-potent stem zone epiblast, which contains neuro-mesodermal progenitors that progressively generate the spinal cord; (2) a major transcriptome re-organisation as cells then adopt a neural fate; and (3) increasing diversity as neural patterning and neuron production begin. Focussing on the transition from multi-potent to neural state cells, we capture changes in major signalling pathways, uncover novel Wnt and Notch signalling dynamics, and implicate new pathways (mevalonate pathway/steroid biogenesis and TGFβ). This analysis further predicts changes in cellular processes, cell cycle, RNA-processing and protein turnover as cells acquire neural fate. We show that these changes are conserved across species and provide biological evidence for reduced proteasome efficiency and a novel lengthening of S phase. This latter step may provide time for epigenetic events to mediate large-scale transcriptome re-organisation; consistent with this, we uncover simultaneous downregulation of major chromatin modifiers as the neural programme is established. We further demonstrate that transcription of one such gene, HDAC1, is dependent on FGF signalling, making a novel link between signals that control neural differentiation and transcription of a core regulator of chromatin organisation. Our work implicates new signalling pathways and dynamics, cellular processes and epigenetic modifiers in neural differentiation in vivo, identifying multiple new potential cellular and molecular mechanisms that direct differentiation. PMID:25063452

  19. Mutual Comparative Filtering for Change Detection in Videos with Unstable Illumination Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sidyakin, Sergey V.; Vishnyakov, Boris V.; Vizilter, Yuri V.; Roslov, Nikolay I.

    2016-06-01

    In this paper we propose a new approach for change detection and moving objects detection in videos with unstable, abrupt illumination changes. This approach is based on mutual comparative filters and background normalization. We give the definitions of mutual comparative filters and outline their strong advantage for change detection purposes. Presented approach allows us to deal with changing illumination conditions in a simple and efficient way and does not have drawbacks, which exist in models that assume different color transformation laws. The proposed procedure can be used to improve a number of background modelling methods, which are not specifically designed to work under illumination changes.

  20. Abrupt change of the mid-summer climate in central east China by the influence of atmospheric pollution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Qun

    Following the great flooding of summer 1998, the mid-lower Yangtze Basin further suffered from another large flooding in summer 1999. Successive droughts through 3 recent summers (1997-1999) appeared in north China in addition, leading to an abnormal summer climate pattern of "north drought with south flooding". Such southward move of the summer monsoon rainy belt in east China started in the late 1970s-early 1980s. Its main cause may not be a purely natural climate change, but the acceleration of industrialization in east China could play a major role by emitting large volumes of SO 2, especially from the rapidly growing rural factories of east China. The annual release of SO 2 in China exceeded 20 Tg during 1992-1998, so dense sulfate aerosols covered the central east China which significantly reduced the sunlight. Although present estimates for the changes of clear sky global solar radiation may include some error, they show that the negative radiative forcing of sulfate aerosols in central east China by far exceeds the effect of greenhouse warming in summer. Hence the mid-summer monsoon rainy belt of east China has a trend moving southward in 21 recent years (1979-1999), showing the very sensitive characteristic of the summer monsoon system to the change in heat equilibrium of the land surface. The occurrence rate of summer climate pattern of "north drought with south flooding" in east China during 21 recent years is the largest since AD 950; such anomalous climate has brought large losses to China. The only possible way to reverse this southward trend of summer monsoon rainy belt is to significantly reduce air pollution by using more clean energy. Recently, the PRC has paid serious attention to this problem by adopting a series of countermeasures.

  1. Orbital- to millennial-scale abrupt hydrologic change in central Indonesia during the past 120,000 years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Russell, J. M.; Konecky, B.; Costa, K.; Bijaksana, S.; Vogel, H.; King, J. W.; Cahyarini, S. Y.; Tamuntuan, G. H.; Huang, Y.; Noren, A. J.; Wattrus, N. J.

    2012-12-01

    Oxygen isotopic reconstructions from Chinese speleothems have shown that Asian summer monsoon variability is dominated by 23,000-year precession cycles through much of the late Pleistocene. Recent speleothem 18O/16O records from Borneo suggest that the strong response to precession extends to at least 4°N at the western edge of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool. Yet climate models indicate that tropical Western Pacific precipitation varies strongly in response to both direct insolation forcing as well as glacial processes, including the extent of ice sheets, atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, and changes in sea level. Unfortunately, long records of terrestrial hydrology from the tropical western Pacific are scarce, limiting our ability to test the influence of these forcings. Here we present a new reconstruction of hydrologic variations spanning the last ~120 kyr BP from Lake Towuti, Sulawesi (2.5° S, 121° E), the largest lake in Indonesia. Our record, based upon sedimentological, geochemical, and compound-specific stable isotopic data, comprises the first long, continuous paleolimnological reconstruction from central Indonesia, and allows a preliminary test of the relative effects of precession versus glacial forcing on tropical western Pacific climate. In particular, we evaluate profiles of magnetic susceptibility, organic carbon and nitrogen concentrations and isotopic compositions, core-scanning x-ray fluoresecence data, and D/H ratios of terrestrial leaf waxes during the past 120 kyr BP, comparing the response of these proxies during the Last Glacial Maximum versus Marine Isotope Stage 5, when 23-kyr insolation cycles were amplified by high eccentricity. Peaks in magnetic susceptibility, high concentrations of terrigenous sediments, and D-depleted terrestrial leaf waxes suggest that the LGM is marked by wet conditions in this part of Indonesia. All proxies exhibit a strong response to the LGM, in contrast to MIS5 when most proxies vary weakly. The strong

  2. The fluvial system response to abrupt climate change during the last cold stage: the Upper Pleistocene River Thames fluvial succession at Ashton Keynes, UK

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lewis, S. G.; Maddy, D.; Scaife, R. G.

    2001-02-01

    The last interglacial-glacial cycle (125-10 ka BP) is characterised by numerous rapid shifts in global climate on sub-Milankovitch timescales, recorded in the ocean and ice core records. These climatic fluctuations are clearly recorded in those European terrestrial sedimentary sequences that span this time period without interruption. In the UK, only fragmentary Upper Pleistocene sequences exist, mainly within the fluvial archive of the major river systems such as the Thames. The response of the upper River Thames to abrupt fluctuations in climate is documented in the fluvial sediments beneath the Floodplain Terrace (Northmoor Member of the Upper Thames Formation) at Ashton Keynes, Wiltshire. A number of criteria are set out by which significant changes in the fluvial system may be established from the sedimentological, palaeoecological and geochronological information contained within the succession. The sedimentary succession is divisible into four facies associations, on the basis of their sedimentology and bounding surface characteristics. These represent distinct phases of fluvial activity at the site and allow changes in fluvial style to be inferred. Palaeoecological reconstructions from pollen analysis of peats within the sequence provides an indication of the nature and direction of Late Glacial environmental change and optically stimulated luminescence and radiocarbon dating methods provide chronological control on the sequence. These data suggest that major changes in fluvial style are recorded within the succession, which can be related to the climatic fluctuations that took place on the oxygen isotope stage 5a/4 transition (approximately 70 ka BP) and the Devensian Late Glacial climatic warm-cold-warm oscillation (13-11 ka BP). The changes in fluvial style are a result of variations in sediment supply to the river resulting from changes in slope stability, vegetation cover and cold-climate mass movement processes and variations in discharge regime

  3. Identifying localized changes in large systems: Change-point detection for biomolecular simulations.

    PubMed

    Fan, Zhou; Dror, Ron O; Mildorf, Thomas J; Piana, Stefano; Shaw, David E

    2015-06-16

    Research on change-point detection, the classical problem of detecting abrupt changes in sequential data, has focused predominantly on datasets with a single observable. A growing number of time series datasets, however, involve many observables, often with the property that a given change typically affects only a few of the observables. We introduce a general statistical method that, given many noisy observables, detects points in time at which various subsets of the observables exhibit simultaneous changes in data distribution and explicitly identifies those subsets. Our work is motivated by the problem of identifying the nature and timing of biologically interesting conformational changes that occur during atomic-level simulations of biomolecules such as proteins. This problem has proved challenging both because each such conformational change might involve only a small region of the molecule and because these changes are often subtle relative to the ever-present background of faster structural fluctuations. We show that our method is effective in detecting biologically interesting conformational changes in molecular dynamics simulations of both folded and unfolded proteins, even in cases where these changes are difficult to detect using alternative techniques. This method may also facilitate the detection of change points in other types of sequential data involving large numbers of observables--a problem likely to become increasingly important as such data continue to proliferate in a variety of application domains.

  4. Abrupt Changes in the Marmara Pelagic Ecosystem during the recent jellyfish Liriope tetraphylla invasion and mucilage events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Erkan Kideys, Ahmet; Yüksek, Ahsen; Sur, Halil Ibrahim

    2013-04-01

    In this study, meteorological and hydrographical conditions as well as chemical and biological parameters have been examined for the period 2005-2009 to determine the impact and cause of the massive mucilage phenomenon observed in the Sea of Marmara in October 2007. Results showed that there is a decrease pattern in chl concentration as well as both phytoplankton and zooplankton abundances from August till October in 2007 whilst the jellyfish Liriope tetraphylla had bloom levels. This period coincided with the maximum intensity of pelagic fishing throughout the years. Nitrogen/phosphate ratio increased prior to the mucilage formation. Invasive Liriope tetraphylla abundance increased exponentially in August and died in masses as a result of starvation and meteorological / oceanographic conditions. In October, following the mucilage matter production another new species for the region Gonyaulax fragilis was observed in high abundance through the basin. It is worthy to note that during basin wide samplings conducted in the Sea of Marmara in both 2005 and 2006, high abundances of Liriope tetraphylla have been detected particularly at the northern parts where no mucilage event was observed. We suggest that overfishing in the Sea of Marmara provided a ground for the establishment of the invasive jellyfish and accompanying mucilage event was due to by synergic combinations of several factors.

  5. Hydrology, Ecology and Pastoralism in the Sahel: Abrupt Changes in Surface Water Dynamics in a Coupled Natural-Human System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hanan, N. P.; Prihodko, L.

    2008-12-01

    The Sahelian region of Africa is situated to the south of the Sahara desert, stretching from Senegal in the West to Sudan in the East. It is an area with semi-arid climate (300-600 mm mean annual precipitation) and long, severe, dry seasons (8-9 months without rain). Sahelian vegetation consists of extensive annual grasslands, with low tree and shrub density (generally < 5% canopy cover). Though rainfall limits the productivity of Sahelian vegetation, this self-same water limitation means that nutrients are relatively available and the nutrient value and digestibility of Sahelian vegetation is much higher than in the adjacent (wetter) savannas to the south. For this reason, the Sahel is a prized grazing resource. However, because domestic animals (cattle, sheep, goats) require regular access to drinking water, most areas of the Sahel are only accessible for grazing during the short rainy season while ephemeral surface pools persist. We will describe observations on one such ephemeral pool in northern Mali which underwent an unexpected transition from ephemeral to perennial during the years of average rainfall (1988-1992) following the severe Sahelian drought of 1985-86. As a result of this transformation a small village has established beside the lake and 5-10 thousand cattle now routinely remain in the watershed throughout the dry season. In this paper the dynamics that may have caused the shift from stable ephemeral lake to stable perennial lake, with no long-term increase in rainfall, will be explored. We will examine hypotheses for the change and how it may have arisen through interactions between hydrology, ecology, climate, humans, their livestock, and land use patterns in the lake catchment. It is likely that biological and physical thresholds were exceeded during the drought to trigger a temporary state change in the lake from ephemeral to perennial, which then triggered a socio-economic reorganization. We hypothesize that the resulting change in land use

  6. 3D-FISH analysis of embryonic nuclei in mouse highlights several abrupt changes of nuclear organization during preimplantation development

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Embryonic development proceeds through finely tuned reprogramming of the parental genomes to form a totipotent embryo. Cells within this embryo will then differentiate and give rise to all the tissues of a new individual. Early embryonic development thus offers a particularly interesting system in which to analyze functional nuclear organization. When the organization of higher-order chromatin structures, such as pericentromeric heterochromatin, was first analyzed in mouse embryos, specific nuclear rearrangements were observed that correlated with embryonic genome activation at the 2-cell stage. However, most existing analyses have been conducted by visual observation of fluorescent images, in two dimensions or on z-stack sections/projections, but only rarely in three dimensions (3D). Results In the present study, we used DNA fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH) to localize centromeric (minor satellites), pericentromeric (major satellites), and telomeric genomic sequences throughout the preimplantation period in naturally fertilized mouse embryos (from the 1-cell to blastocyst stage). Their distribution was then analyzed in 3D on confocal image stacks, focusing on the nucleolar precursor bodies and nucleoli known to evolve rapidly throughout the first developmental stages. We used computational imaging to quantify various nuclear parameters in the 3D-FISH images, to analyze the organization of compartments of interest, and to measure physical distances between these compartments. Conclusions The results highlight differences in nuclear organization between the two parental inherited genomes at the 1-cell stage, i.e. just after fertilization. We also found that the reprogramming of the embryonic genome, which starts at the 2-cell stage, undergoes other remarkable changes during preimplantation development, particularly at the 4-cell stage. PMID:23095683

  7. Short-term adaptation of the ruminal epithelium involves abrupt changes in sodium and short-chain fatty acid transport

    PubMed Central

    Schurmann, Brittney L.; Walpole, Matthew E.; Górka, Pawel; Ching, John C. H.; Loewen, Matthew E.

    2014-01-01

    The objectives of this study were to determine the effect of an increase in diet fermentability on 1) the rate and extent to which short-chain fatty acid (SCFA) absorption pathways adapt relative to changes in Na+ transport, 2) the epithelial surface area (SA), and 3) the barrier function of the bovine ruminal epithelium. Twenty-five Holstein steer calves were assigned to either the control diet (CON; 91.5% hay and 8.5% supplement) or a moderately fermentable diet (50% hay; 41.5% barley grain (G), and 8.5% supplement) fed for 3 (G3), 7 (G7), 14 (G14), or 21 days (G21). All calves were fed at 2.25% body weight at 0800. Calves were killed (at 1000), and ruminal tissue was collected to determine the rate and pathway of SCFA transport, Na+ transport and barrier function in Ussing chambers. Tissue was also collected for SA measurement and gene expression. Mean reticular pH decreased from 6.90 for CON to 6.59 for G7 and then increased (quadratic P < 0.001). While effective SA of the ruminal epithelium was not affected (P > 0.10) by dietary treatment, the net Na+ flux increased by 125% within 7 days (quadratic P = 0.016). Total acetate and butyrate flux increased from CON to G21, where passive diffusion was the primary SCFA absorption pathway affected. Increased mannitol flux, tissue conductance, and tendencies for increased expression of IL-1β and TLR2 indicated reduced rumen epithelium barrier function. This study indicates that an increase in diet fermentability acutely increases Na+ and SCFA absorption in the absence of increased SA, but reduces barrier function. PMID:25080498

  8. Short-term adaptation of the ruminal epithelium involves abrupt changes in sodium and short-chain fatty acid transport.

    PubMed

    Schurmann, Brittney L; Walpole, Matthew E; Górka, Pawel; Ching, John C H; Loewen, Matthew E; Penner, Gregory B

    2014-10-01

    The objectives of this study were to determine the effect of an increase in diet fermentability on 1) the rate and extent to which short-chain fatty acid (SCFA) absorption pathways adapt relative to changes in Na(+) transport, 2) the epithelial surface area (SA), and 3) the barrier function of the bovine ruminal epithelium. Twenty-five Holstein steer calves were assigned to either the control diet (CON; 91.5% hay and 8.5% supplement) or a moderately fermentable diet (50% hay; 41.5% barley grain (G), and 8.5% supplement) fed for 3 (G3), 7 (G7), 14 (G14), or 21 days (G21). All calves were fed at 2.25% body weight at 0800. Calves were killed (at 1000), and ruminal tissue was collected to determine the rate and pathway of SCFA transport, Na(+) transport and barrier function in Ussing chambers. Tissue was also collected for SA measurement and gene expression. Mean reticular pH decreased from 6.90 for CON to 6.59 for G7 and then increased (quadratic P < 0.001). While effective SA of the ruminal epithelium was not affected (P > 0.10) by dietary treatment, the net Na(+) flux increased by 125% within 7 days (quadratic P = 0.016). Total acetate and butyrate flux increased from CON to G21, where passive diffusion was the primary SCFA absorption pathway affected. Increased mannitol flux, tissue conductance, and tendencies for increased expression of IL-1β and TLR2 indicated reduced rumen epithelium barrier function. This study indicates that an increase in diet fermentability acutely increases Na(+) and SCFA absorption in the absence of increased SA, but reduces barrier function.

  9. Monitoring channel head erosion processes in response to an artificially induced abrupt base level change using time-lapse photography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nichols, M. H.; Nearing, M.; Hernandez, M.; Polyakov, V. O.

    2016-07-01

    Gullies that terminate at a vertical-wall are ubiquitous throughout arid and semiarid regions. Multi-year assessments of gully evolution and headcut advance are typically accomplished using traditional ground surveys and aerial photographs, with much recent research focused on integrating data collected at very high spatial resolutions using new techniques such as aerial surveys with blimps or kites and ground surveys with LiDar scanners. However, knowledge of specific processes that drive headcut advance is limited due to inadequate observation and documentation of flash floods and subsequent erosion that can occur at temporal resolutions not captured through repeat surveys. This paper presents a method for using very-high temporal resolution ground-based time-lapse photography to capture short-duration flash floods and gully head evolution in response. In 2004, a base level controlling concrete weir was removed from the outlet of a 1.29 ha semiarid headwater drainage on the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed in southeastern Arizona, USA. During the ten year period from 2004 to 2014 the headcut migrated upchannel a total of 14.5 m reducing the contributing area at the headwall by 9.5%. Beginning in July 2012, time-lapse photography was employed to observe event scale channel evolution dynamics. The most frequent erosion processes observed during three seasons of time-lapse photography were plunge pool erosion and mass wasting through sidewall or channel headwall slumping that occurred during summer months. Geomorphic change during the ten year period was dominated by a single piping event in August 2014 that advanced the channel head 7.4 m (51% of the overall advance) and removed 11.3 m3 of sediment. High temporal resolution time-lapse photography was critical for identifying subsurface erosion processes, in the absence of time-lapse images piping would not have been identified as an erosion mechanism responsible for advancing the gully headwall at this site.

  10. Sensitivity of the North Atlantic Ocean Circulation to an abrupt change in the Nordic Sea overflow in a high resolution global coupled climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Rong; Delworth, Thomas L.; Rosati, Anthony; Anderson, Whit G.; Dixon, Keith W.; Lee, Hyun-Chul; Zeng, Fanrong

    2011-12-01

    The sensitivity of the North Atlantic Ocean Circulation to an abrupt change in the Nordic Sea overflow is investigated for the first time using a high resolution eddy-permitting global coupled ocean-atmosphere model (GFDL CM2.5). The Nordic Sea overflow is perturbed through the change of the bathymetry in GFDL CM2.5. We analyze the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) adjustment process and the downstream oceanic response to the perturbation. The results suggest that north of 34°N, AMOC changes induced by changes in the Nordic Sea overflow propagate on the slow tracer advection timescale, instead of the fast Kelvin wave timescale, resulting in a time lead of several years between subpolar and subtropical AMOC changes. The results also show that a stronger and deeper-penetrating Nordic Sea overflow leads to stronger and deeper AMOC, stronger northward ocean heat transport, reduced Labrador Sea deep convection, stronger cyclonic Northern Recirculation Gyre (NRG), westward shift of the North Atlantic Current (NAC) and southward shift of the Gulf Stream, warmer sea surface temperature (SST) east of Newfoundland and colder SST south of the Grand Banks, stronger and deeper NAC and Gulf Stream, and stronger oceanic eddy activities along the NAC and the Gulf Stream paths. A stronger/weaker Nordic Sea overflow also leads to a contracted/expanded subpolar gyre (SPG). This sensitivity study points to the important role of the Nordic Sea overflow in the large scale North Atlantic ocean circulation, and it is crucial for climate models to have a correct representation of the Nordic Sea overflow.

  11. Archaeological Evidence for Abrupt Cimate Change: Results from Satellite Imagery Analysis and Subsequent Ground-Truthing in the El-Manzalah Region, Northeast Egyptian Delta

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parcak, S. H.

    2003-12-01

    The abrupt global climate changes recorded at 8.2, 5.2 and 4.2 ka BP caused a wide range of transformations within ancient societies, including the focus of this study: ancient Egypt . In the case of the climatic changes that occurred at 4.2 ka BP, scholars have debated hotly the events surrounding the "collapse" of the Old Kingdom. Despite such studies into the Old Kingdom's "collapse", there have been insufficient regional settlement pattern studies in Egypt to augment hypotheses concerning the mechanisms behind the cultural transformations that occurred at the end of the Old Kingdom. Utilizing a combination of satellite imagery analysis and subsequent ground-truthing techniques over a broad region in the East Delta, this study aims to reconstruct pharaonic settlement distributions in relation to the changing northeast delta topography, river courses, marshlands, and coastline. Although geo-political and religious factors played varying roles in settlement patterns, this study overlies the economic and environmental components behind the settlement of individual sites and areas. For instance, prior to the formation of the Manzala lagoon, beginning in the 4th century AD, the Mendesian branch of the Nile flowed past Mendes and its satellite, maritime port at Tell Tebilla: As early as the Old Kingdom, Tell Tebilla provided an ideal location for the formation of a town, being well-located to exploit both riverine and maritime transportation routes through trade, and regional floral and faunal resources from hunting, fishing, cultivation and animal husbandry. Key factors such as long-term fluctuations in precipitation, flood levels, and river courses, can affect dramatically the fortunes of individual settlements, areas, and regions, resulting in the decline and abandonment of some sites and the foundation and flourishing of other sites, especially within marginal regions. The Egyptian delta represents an ideal region for studying the impacts of climatic changes

  12. Change Detection in Auditory Textures.

    PubMed

    Boubenec, Yves; Lawlor, Jennifer; Shamma, Shihab; Englitz, Bernhard

    2016-01-01

    Many natural sounds have spectrotemporal signatures only on a statistical level, e.g. wind, fire or rain. While their local structure is highly variable, the spectrotemporal statistics of these auditory textures can be used for recognition. This suggests the existence of a neural representation of these statistics. To explore their encoding, we investigated the detectability of changes in the spectral statistics in relation to the properties of the change. To achieve precise parameter control, we designed a minimal sound texture--a modified cloud of tones--which retains the central property of auditory textures: solely statistical predictability. Listeners had to rapidly detect a change in the frequency marginal probability of the tone cloud occurring at a random time.The size of change as well as the time available to sample the original statistics were found to correlate positively with performance and negatively with reaction time, suggesting the accumulation of noisy evidence. In summary we quantified dynamic aspects of change detection in statistically defined contexts, and found evidence of integration of statistical information.

  13. The abrupt climate change at the Eocene–Oligocene boundary and the emergence of South-East Asia triggered the spread of sapindaceous lineages

    PubMed Central

    Buerki, Sven; Forest, Félix; Stadler, Tanja; Alvarez, Nadir

    2013-01-01

    Background and Aims Paleoclimatic data indicate that an abrupt climate change occurred at the Eocene–Oligocene (E–O) boundary affecting the distribution of tropical forests on Earth. The same period has seen the emergence of South-East (SE) Asia, caused by the collision of the Eurasian and Australian plates. How the combination of these climatic and geomorphological factors affected the spatio-temporal history of angiosperms is little known. This topic is investigated by using the worldwide sapindaceous clade as a case study. Methods Analyses of divergence time inference, diversification and biogeography (constrained by paleogeography) are applied to a combined plastid and nuclear DNA sequence data set. Biogeographical and diversification analyses are performed over a set of trees to take phylogenetic and dating uncertainty into account. Results are analysed in the context of past climatic fluctuations. Key Results An increase in the number of dispersal events at the E–O boundary is recorded, which intensified during the Miocene. This pattern is associated with a higher rate in the emergence of new genera. These results are discussed in light of the geomorphological importance of SE Asia, which acted as a tropical bridge allowing multiple contacts between areas and additional speciation across landmasses derived from Laurasia and Gondwana. Conclusions This study demonstrates the importance of the combined effect of geomorphological (the emergence of most islands in SE Asia approx. 30 million years ago) and climatic (the dramatic E–O climate change that shifted the tropical belt and reduced sea levels) factors in shaping species distribution within the sapindaceous clade. PMID:23723259

  14. Trend Estimation and Change Point Detection in Climatic Series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bates, B. C.; Chandler, R. E.

    2011-12-01

    The problems of trend estimation and change point detection in climatic series have received substantial attention in recent years. Key issues include the magnitudes and directions of underlying trends, and the existence (or otherwise) of abrupt shifts in the mean background state. There are many procedures in use including: t-tests, Mann-Whitney and Pettit tests, linear and piecewise linear regression; cumulative sum analysis; hierarchical Bayesian change point analysis; Markov chain Monte Carlo methods; and reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo. The purpose of our presentation is to motivate wider use of modern regression techniques for trend estimation and change point detection in climatic series. We pay particular attention to the underlying statistical assumptions as their violation can lead to serious errors in data interpretation and study conclusions. In this context we consider two case studies. The first involves the application of local linear regression and a test for discontinuities in the regression function to the winter (December-March) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index series for the period 1864-2010. This series exhibits a reversal from strongly negative values in the late 1960s to strongly positive NAO index values in the mid-1990s. The second involves the analysis of a seasonal (June to October) series of typhoon counts in the vicinity of Taiwan for the period 1970-2006. A previous investigation by other researchers concluded that an abrupt shift in this series occurred between 1999 and 2000. For both case studies, our findings indicate little evidence for abrupt shifts: rather, the decadal to multidecadal changes in the mean levels of both series appear well described by smooth trends. For the winter NAO index series, the trend is non-monotonic; for the typhoon counts, it can be regarded as linear on the square root scale. Our statistical results do not contradict those obtained by other researchers: our interpretation of these results

  15. Detecting Thermohaline Circulation Changes from Ocean properties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, A.; Meehl, G. A.; Han, W.

    2003-12-01

    Significant changes of the thermohaline circulation (THC) are likely to cause abrupt earth climate change. Here we examined several mechanisms controlling the THC variation using a coupled climate system model (NCAR's CCSM2.0). Three experiments are analyzed, a control run (present; CON), and two forced runs: a fresh water hosing run with 0.1 Sv additional fresh water uniformly distributed in northern North Atlantic (NA) between 50 and 70oN (past; HOS), and a transient climate run with 1% CO2 increase per year (future; TRC). In HOS, THC is weakened to 11.4 Sv from 15.7 Sv in CON by the end of the 100-year hosing, then recovers to its full strength 80 years after the hosing was turned off. The tropical and subtropical Atlantic ocean average over the upper 1000 meter (Tat1000) warms by 0.3oC by the end of the hosing, implying a change of 14 Sv in THC for a 1oC variation of Tat1000. In TRC, the THC weakens to 14.1 Sv at 2XCO2 and to 12.6 Sv at 4XCO2. Tat1000 increases by 1.1oC at 4XCO2, where most of the Tat1000 changes can be attributed to the CO2 effect. Therefore, the same regression relationship between THC and Tat1000 do not hold in this experiment as in HOS. EOF analysis of the meridional streamfunction (MSF) in the Atlantic reveals a seesawing pattern of the rate of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) and Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) formation in the first EOF for HOS. When the NADW increases (stronger THC), the AABW decreases. The same is true for CON. Changes in AABW is related to sea ice volume changes in southern ocean. This seesawing pattern of THC agrees with proposed THC oscillation in the past 1500 years. In TRC, as CO2 increases, the northern NA and the periphery of the Antarctic become warmer and fresher, reducing the surface water density, and resulting in a decrease in both NADW and AABW formation. Other mechanisms examined here are the mean sea surface salinity (SSS) and temperature (SST) contrast between NA and North Pacific (NP), and the steric

  16. Millennial scale precipitation changes over Easter Island (Southern Pacific) during MIS 3: Inter-hemispheric connections during North Atlantic abrupt cold events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Margalef, Olga; Cacho, Isabel; Pla-Rabes, Sergi; Cañellas-Boltà, Núria; Pueyo, Juan Jose; Sáez, Alberto; Valero-Garcés, Blas L.; Giralt, Santiago

    2013-04-01

    Hemisphere have been abrupt in response to the MIS 3 climate variability, a pattern which is in contrast to the typical gradual changes shown by several southern hemisphere records. This points to a very rapid atmospheric reorganization at low and medium latitudes in front to a more progressive oceanic heat redistribution lead by the bipolar seesaw.

  17. A massive input of coarse-grained siliciclastics in the Pyrenean Basin during the PETM: the missing ingredient in a coeval abrupt change in hydrological regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pujalte, V.; Baceta, J. I.; Schmitz, B.

    2015-12-01

    The Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) is represented in numerous shallow and deep marine sections of the south-central and western Pyrenees by a 2-4 m thick unit (locally up to 20 m) of clays or marly clays intercalated within a carbonate-dominated succession. This unit records a massive input into the Pyrenean Gulf of fine-grained terrestrial siliciclastics, attributed to an abrupt hydrological change during the PETM. However, the nature of such a change remains controversial. Here we show that, in addition to fine-grained deposits, large volumes of coarse-grained siliciclastics were brought into the basin and were mostly accumulated in incised valleys and in a long-lived deep-sea channel. The occurrence of these coarse-grained deposits has been known for some time, but their correlation with the PETM is reported here for the first time. The bulk of the incised valley deposits in the PETM interval are cross-bedded sands and pebbly sands, almost exclusively made of quartz. The criteria for indicting a relation to the PETM include their stratigraphic position between upper Thanetian and lower Ilerdian marine carbonates, organic carbon isotope data, and a high percentage of kaolinite in the clay matrix. The axially flowing deep-sea channel existed throughout Paleocene times in the Pyrenean Basin, within which coarse-grained calciclastic and siliciclastic turbidites were accumulated. This Paleocene succession is capped by thickly bedded quartz sandstones and pebbly sandstones, probably deposited by hyperpycnal flows, which are here assigned to the PETM based on their stratigraphic position and organic carbon isotopic data. The large and simultaneous increase in coarse- and fine-grained terrestrial siliciclastics delivered to the Pyrenean Gulf during the PETM is attributed to an increased intra-annual humidity gradient. During the PETM a longer and drier summer season facilitated the erosion of landscapes, whereas a dramatic enhancement of precipitation extremes

  18. A massive input of coarse-grained siliciclastics in the Pyrenean Basin during the PETM: the missing ingredient of a coeval abrupt change in hydrological regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pujalte, V.; Baceta, J. I.; Schmitz, B.

    2015-07-01

    The Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) is represented in numerous shallow and deep marine sections of the south-central and western Pyrenees by a 2-4 m thick unit (locally ca. 20 m) of clays or marly clays intercalated within a carbonate-dominated succession. The massive input of fine-grained terrestrial siliciclastics into the Pyrenean Gulf recorded by that unit has been attributed to an abrupt hydrological change during the PETM. However, the nature of such change remains controversial. Here we show that, in addition to fine-grained deposits, large volumes of coarse-grained siliciclastics were brought into the basin that were mostly accumulated in incised valleys and a long-lived deep-sea channel, both spatially restricted settings. The occurrence of these coarse-grained deposits had been known for some time, but their correlation with the PETM is reported here for the first time. The bulk of incised valley PETM deposits are cross-bedded sands and pebbly sands, almost exclusively made of quartz, currently being actively quarried. Proof of their belonging to the PETM include: (1) their stratigraphic position, sandwiched between upper Thanetian and lower Ilerdian marine carbonates, (2) organic carbon isotope data, and (3) the fact that clay minerals from the sand matrix are more than 80 % kaolinite. The axially-flowing deep-sea channel existed throughout Paleocene times in the Pyrenean Basin, within which coarse-grained calciclastic turbidites, and lesser volumes of siliciclastic turbidites, were accumulated. This Paleocene succession is capped by thick-bedded turbiditic quartz sandstones and pebbly sandstones, here assigned to the PETM based on calcareous nannoplankton, clay mineral and organic carbon isotopic data. The large and simultaneous increase in coarse- and fine-grained terrestrial siliciclastic material delivered to the Pyrenean Gulf is related to an increased intra-annual humidity gradient. During the PETM longer and drier summer seasons

  19. On Radar Resolution in Coherent Change Detection.

    SciTech Connect

    Bickel, Douglas L.

    2015-11-01

    It is commonly observed that resolution plays a role in coherent change detection. Although this is the case, the relationship of the resolution in coherent change detection is not yet defined . In this document, we present an analytical method of evaluating this relationship using detection theory. Specifically we examine the effect of resolution on receiver operating characteristic curves for coherent change detection.

  20. A stratigraphic framework for abrupt climatic changes during the Last Glacial period based on three synchronized Greenland ice-core records: refining and extending the INTIMATE event stratigraphy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rasmussen, Sune O.; Bigler, Matthias; Blockley, Simon P.; Blunier, Thomas; Buchardt, Susanne L.; Clausen, Henrik B.; Cvijanovic, Ivana; Dahl-Jensen, Dorthe; Johnsen, Sigfus J.; Fischer, Hubertus; Gkinis, Vasileios; Guillevic, Myriam; Hoek, Wim Z.; Lowe, J. John; Pedro, Joel B.; Popp, Trevor; Seierstad, Inger K.; Steffensen, Jørgen Peder; Svensson, Anders M.; Vallelonga, Paul; Vinther, Bo M.; Walker, Mike J. C.; Wheatley, Joe J.; Winstrup, Mai

    2014-12-01

    Due to their outstanding resolution and well-constrained chronologies, Greenland ice-core records provide a master record of past climatic changes throughout the Last Interglacial-Glacial cycle in the North Atlantic region. As part of the INTIMATE (INTegration of Ice-core, MArine and TErrestrial records) project, protocols have been proposed to ensure consistent and robust correlation between different records of past climate. A key element of these protocols has been the formal definition and ordinal numbering of the sequence of Greenland Stadials (GS) and Greenland Interstadials (GI) within the most recent glacial period. The GS and GI periods are the Greenland expressions of the characteristic Dansgaard-Oeschger events that represent cold and warm phases of the North Atlantic region, respectively. We present here a more detailed and extended GS/GI template for the whole of the Last Glacial period. It is based on a synchronization of the NGRIP, GRIP, and GISP2 ice-core records that allows the parallel analysis of all three records on a common time scale. The boundaries of the GS and GI periods are defined based on a combination of stable-oxygen isotope ratios of the ice (δ18O, reflecting mainly local temperature) and calcium ion concentrations (reflecting mainly atmospheric dust loading) measured in the ice. The data not only resolve the well-known sequence of Dansgaard-Oeschger events that were first defined and numbered in the ice-core records more than two decades ago, but also better resolve a number of short-lived climatic oscillations, some defined here for the first time. Using this revised scheme, we propose a consistent approach for discriminating and naming all the significant abrupt climatic events of the Last Glacial period that are represented in the Greenland ice records. The final product constitutes an extended and better resolved Greenland stratotype sequence, against which other proxy records can be compared and correlated. It also provides a

  1. Multiple abrupt climate changes in the western hemisphere during the past 50,000 years, and their implications concerning the response of vegetation to changing atmospheric chemistry

    SciTech Connect

    Jacobson, G.L. Jr.; Grimm, E.C.

    1995-06-01

    Independent evidence spanning the last 50,000 years from ice cores, ocean sediments, and detailed glacial-geologic investigations implies multiple. large warm/cool oscillations with a frequency of ca. 3000 years through much of the Western Hemisphere. Paleoecological studies at sites in North America and the west coast of South America reveal major, synchronous changes in vegetation corresponding to many of these high-frequency changes in climate. Sequences on both sides of the equator culminate in substantial warming at 14 ka BP and a brief cooling at ca. 11 ka BP just prior to the final onset of Holocene warming. The high-frequency climate oscillations are not explained by {open_quotes}Milankovitch{close_quotes} cycles in solar insolation or by changes in thermohaline ocean circulation. Rather, these changes in climate and the attendant synchronous, broad-scale responses of vegetation indicate a global atmospheric forcing. However, that forcing is apparently also distinct from changing concentrations of atmospheric CO2 (as represented in the Vostok ice-core data). High-resolution CO2 data, such as that from the new Greenland ice cores, will be required before critical assessments of plant-physiological responses to past atmospheric changes can be carried out.

  2. Early warnings and missed alarms for abrupt monsoon transitions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thomas, Z. A.; Kwasniok, F.; Boulton, C. A.; Cox, P. M.; Jones, R. T.; Lenton, T. M.; Turney, C. S. M.

    2015-12-01

    Palaeo-records from China demonstrate that the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) is dominated by abrupt and large magnitude monsoon shifts on millennial timescales, switching between periods of high and weak monsoon rains. It has been hypothesized that over these timescales, the EASM exhibits two stable states with bifurcation-type tipping points between them. Here we test this hypothesis by looking for early warning signals of past bifurcations in speleothem δ18O records from Sanbao Cave and Hulu Cave, China, spanning the penultimate glacial cycle. We find that although there are increases in both autocorrelation and variance preceding some of the monsoon transitions during this period, it is only immediately prior to the abrupt monsoon shift at the penultimate deglaciation (Termination II) that statistically significant increases are detected. To supplement our data analysis, we produce and analyse multiple model simulations that we derive from these data. We find hysteresis behaviour in our model simulations with transitions directly forced by solar insolation. However, signals of critical slowing down, which occur on the approach to a bifurcation, are only detectable in the model simulations when the change in system stability is sufficiently slow to be detected by the sampling resolution of the data set. This raises the possibility that the early warning "alarms" were missed in the speleothem data over the period 224-150 kyr and it was only at the monsoon termination that the change in the system stability was sufficiently slow to detect early warning signals.

  3. Multisensor Fusion for Change Detection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schenk, T.; Csatho, B.

    2005-12-01

    with detecting surface elevation changes on the Byrd Glacier, Antarctica, with aerial imagery from 1980s and ICESat laser altimetry data from 2003-05. Change detection from such disparate data sets is an intricate fusion problem, beginning with sensor alignment, and on to reasoning with spatial information as to where changes occurred and to what extent.

  4. Active change detection by pigeons and humans.

    PubMed

    Hagmann, Carl Erick; Cook, Robert G

    2013-10-01

    Detecting change is vital to both human and nonhuman animals' interactions with the environment. Using the go/no-go dynamic change detection task, we examined the capacity of four pigeons to detect changes in brightness of an area on a computer display. In contrast to our prior research, we reversed the response contingencies so that the animals had to actively inhibit pecking upon detecting change in brightness rather than its constancy. Testing eight rates of change revealed that this direct report change detection contingency produced results equivalent to the earlier indirect procedure. Corresponding tests with humans suggested that the temporal dynamics of detecting change were similar for both species. The results indicate the mechanisms of change detection in both pigeons and humans are organized in similar ways, although limitations in the operations of working memory may prevent pigeons from integrating information over the same time scale as humans.

  5. Neanderthal and Anatomically Modern Human interaction with Abrupt Late Pleistocene Environments - the data is finally good enough to talk about climate change!

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blockley, Simon; Schreve, Danielle

    2015-04-01

    The timing and nature of the appearance of Anatomically Modern Humans (AMH) in Europe, their interaction with, and eventual morphological replacement of Neanderthals (despite some shared genetic heritage) has been a matter of intense debate within archaeology for a generation. This period, often termed the Middle to Upper Palaeolithic transition occurs in the latter part of Marine Isotope Stage Three and in recent decades archaeological interest has been complemented by the input of palaeoclimate scientists, over the role of abrupt climate change in this process. This was due to the recognition from ice core and marine proxy archives, in particular, of periods if intense cooling, correlated to the marine record of Heinrich ice rafted debris layers from the Atlantic. As a result of these collaborations between the archaeological and palaeoenvironmental communities various drivers have been proposed for the Middle to Upper Palaeolithic Transition that include: (1) resource competition between two species occupying similar niches; (2) the impact of repeated cycles of Heinrich event cooling, leading to the decline and eventual disappearance of the Neanderthal populations, leaving a new region open for AMH exploitation; and (3) catastrophic impacts of large volcanic eruptions on Neanderthal populations. Attempts to address the above hypotheses have been dogged by the chronological precision available for a number of key archives. The accuracy of many of the radiocarbon ages that underpin the chronology for both Neanderthal and AMH archaeological sites has been questioned1. This has been exacerbated by uncertainties over the influence of variability in the radiocarbon marine reservoir effect on marine palaeoclimate records and a marine dominated radiocarbon calibration curve. Additionally, the counting uncertainties of the master Greenland palaeoclimate archives are also large by this time, meaning palaeoclimate interpretation can be equivocal. However, several research

  6. Abrupt shift toward cooler condition in the earliest 20th century detected in a 165 year coral record from Ishigaki Island, southwestern Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mishima, Mari; Suzuki, Atsushi; Nagao, Masayuki; Ishimura, Toyoho; Inoue, Mayuri; Kawahata, Hodaka

    2010-08-01

    We analyzed a 165 year δ18O coral record from Ishigaki Island, southwestern Japan, and compared our results with observed sea surface temperatures, as well as with the East Asian winter monsoon and El Niño Southern Oscillation. Coral skeletal δ18O fluctuations were consistent with other available SST information since the 1890s. The coral δ18O data indicated abrupt shift toward cooler condition during 1900-1905, consistent with the extremely cold winter air temperatures observed in Japan in 1902. The cold event was also supported by coral Sr/Ca data. Development of the Siberian High may have intensified the EAWM at this time, in association with active heat convection in the tropics and weak westerlies. This cooling may also have been related to surface ocean freshening in the Ogasawara Islands in the early 20th century. Thus, several phenomena were uniquely coupled during the first few years of the 20th century in the northwestern subtropical Pacific.

  7. Early warnings and missed alarms for abrupt monsoon transitions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thomas, Z. A.; Kwasniok, F.; Boulton, C. A.; Cox, P. M.; Jones, R. T.; Lenton, T. M.; Turney, C. S. M.

    2015-04-01

    Palaeo-records from China (Cheng et al., 2009; Wang et al., 2008, 2001) demonstrate the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) is dominated by abrupt and large magnitude monsoon shifts on millennial timescales, switching between periods of high and weak monsoon rains. It has been hypothesised that over these timescales, the EASM exhibits two stable states with bifurcation-type tipping points between them (Schewe et al., 2012). Here we test this hypothesis by looking for early warning signals of past bifurcations in speleothem records from Sanbao Cave and Hulu Cave, China (Wang et al., 2008, 2001), spanning the penultimate glacial cycle, and in multiple model simulations derived from the data. We find hysteresis behaviour in our model simulations with transitions directly forced by solar insolation. We detect critical slowing down prior to an abrupt monsoon shift during the penultimate deglaciation consistent with long-term orbital forcing. However, such signals are only detectable when the change in system stability is sufficiently slow to be detected by the sampling resolution of the dataset, raising the possibility that the alarm was missed and a similar forcing drove earlier EASM shifts.

  8. Anomalous change detection in imagery

    DOEpatents

    Theiler, James P.; Perkins, Simon J.

    2011-05-31

    A distribution-based anomaly detection platform is described that identifies a non-flat background that is specified in terms of the distribution of the data. A resampling approach is also disclosed employing scrambled resampling of the original data with one class specified by the data and the other by the explicit distribution, and solving using binary classification.

  9. Timing of initiation of macronuclear DNA synthesis is set during the preceding cell cycle in Paramecium tetraurelia: analysis of the effects of abrupt changes in nutrient level

    SciTech Connect

    Ching, A.S.L.; Berger, J.D.

    1986-11-01

    In many eukaryotic organisms, initiation of DNA synthesis is associated with a major control point within the cell cycle and reflects the commitment of the cell to the DNA replication-division portion of the cell cycle. In paramecium, the timing of DNA synthesis initiation is established prior to fission during the preceding cell cycle. DNA synthesis normally starts at 0.25 in the cell cycle. When dividing cells are subjected to abrupt nutrient shift-up by transfer from a chemostat culture to medium with excess food, or shift-down from a well-fed culture to exhausted medium, DNA synthesis initiation in the post-shift cell cycle occurs at 0.25 of the parental cell cycle and not at either 0.25 in the post-shift cell cycle or at 0.25 in the equilibrium cell cycle produced under the post-shift conditions. The long delay prior to initiation of DNA synthesis following nutritional shift-up is not a consequence of continued slow growth because the rate of protein synthesis increases rapidly to the normal level after shift-up. Analysis of the relation between increase in cell mass and initiation of DNA synthesis following nutritional shifts indicates that increase in cell mass, per se, is neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition for initiation of DNA synthesis, in spite of the strong association between accumulation of cell mass and initiation of DNA synthesis in cells growing under steady-state conditions.

  10. Basic mechanism for abrupt monsoon transitions

    PubMed Central

    Levermann, Anders; Schewe, Jacob; Petoukhov, Vladimir; Held, Hermann

    2009-01-01

    Monsoon systems influence the livelihood of hundreds of millions of people. During the Holocene and last glacial period, rainfall in India and China has undergone strong and abrupt changes. Though details of monsoon circulations are complicated, observations reveal a defining moisture-advection feedback that dominates the seasonal heat balance and might act as an internal amplifier, leading to abrupt changes in response to relatively weak external perturbations. Here we present a minimal conceptual model capturing this positive feedback. The basic equations, motivated by observed relations, yield a threshold behavior, robust with respect to addition of other physical processes. Below this threshold in net radiative influx, R c, no conventional monsoon can develop; above R c, two stable regimes exist. We identify a nondimensional parameter l that defines the threshold and makes monsoon systems comparable with respect to the character of their abrupt transition. This dynamic similitude may be helpful in understanding past and future variations in monsoon circulation. Within the restrictions of the model, we compute R c for current monsoon systems in India, China, the Bay of Bengal, West Africa, North America, and Australia, where moisture advection is the main driver of the circulation. PMID:19858472

  11. Image Change Detection via Ensemble Learning

    SciTech Connect

    Martin, Benjamin W; Vatsavai, Raju

    2013-01-01

    The concept of geographic change detection is relevant in many areas. Changes in geography can reveal much information about a particular location. For example, analysis of changes in geography can identify regions of population growth, change in land use, and potential environmental disturbance. A common way to perform change detection is to use a simple method such as differencing to detect regions of change. Though these techniques are simple, often the application of these techniques is very limited. Recently, use of machine learning methods such as neural networks for change detection has been explored with great success. In this work, we explore the use of ensemble learning methodologies for detecting changes in bitemporal synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images. Ensemble learning uses a collection of weak machine learning classifiers to create a stronger classifier which has higher accuracy than the individual classifiers in the ensemble. The strength of the ensemble lies in the fact that the individual classifiers in the ensemble create a mixture of experts in which the final classification made by the ensemble classifier is calculated from the outputs of the individual classifiers. Our methodology leverages this aspect of ensemble learning by training collections of weak decision tree based classifiers to identify regions of change in SAR images collected of a region in the Staten Island, New York area during Hurricane Sandy. Preliminary studies show that the ensemble method has approximately 11.5% higher change detection accuracy than an individual classifier.

  12. Long-Term Water and Sediment Change Detection in a Small Mountainous Tributary of the Lower Pearl River, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, S.; Lu, X. X.

    Hydrological regimes of river systems have been changing both qualitatively and quantitatively due to the profound human disturbances, such as river diversions, damming, and land use change. In this study, a mountainous tributary (the Luodingjiang River) of the lower Pearl River, China, was investigated to illustrate the impacts from human activities on river systems during the period 1959-2002. Mann-Kendall test and Spearman test for gradual trend and Pettitt test for abrupt change were employed to investigate the hydrological characteristics of the Luodingjiang River. Annual minimum water discharge and annual sediment yield series have significant increasing and decreasing trends, respectively, and also significant upward and downward shifts were detected by abrupt change tests, respectively, for these two data series. Neither statistically significant trends nor abrupt shift were found for annual maximum water discharge and annual mean water discharge series. The detected changes both in water and sediment point to the impacts of reservoir constructions, water diversion programs as well as land use change. However, the sediment-increasing impacts from other anthropogenic disturbances, such as road construction and mining, cannot be discerned from the recent hydrological responses.

  13. Trend estimation and change point detection in individual climatic series using flexible regression methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bates, Bryson C.; Chandler, Richard E.; Bowman, Adrian W.

    2012-08-01

    Over recent years, considerable attention has been given to the problem of detecting trends and change points (discontinuities) in climatic series. This has led to the use of a plethora of detection techniques, ranging from the very simple (e.g., linear regression and t-tests) to the relatively complex (e.g., Markov chain Monte Carlo methods). However, many of these techniques are quite restricted in their range of application and care is needed to avoid misinterpretation of their results. In this paper we highlight the availability of modern regression methods that allow for both smooth trends and abrupt changes, and a discontinuity test that enables discrimination between the two. Our framework can accommodate constant mean levels, linear or smooth trends, and can test for genuine change points in an objective and data-driven way. We demonstrate its capabilities using the winter (December-March) North Atlantic Oscillation, an annual mean relative humidity series and a seasonal (June to October) typhoon count series as case studies. We show that the framework is less restrictive than many alternatives in allowing the data to speak for themselves and can give different and more credible results from those of conventional methods. The research findings from such analyses can be used to appropriately inform the design of subsequent studies of temporal changes in underlying physical mechanisms, and the development of policy responses that are appropriate for smoothly varying rather than abrupt climate change (and vice versa).

  14. Indigenous people's detection of rapid ecological change.

    PubMed

    Aswani, Shankar; Lauer, Matthew

    2014-06-01

    When sudden catastrophic events occur, it becomes critical for coastal communities to detect and respond to environmental transformations because failure to do so may undermine overall ecosystem resilience and threaten people's livelihoods. We therefore asked how capable of detecting rapid ecological change following massive environmental disruptions local, indigenous people are. We assessed the direction and periodicity of experimental learning of people in the Western Solomon Islands after a tsunami in 2007. We compared the results of marine science surveys with local ecological knowledge of the benthos across 3 affected villages and 3 periods before and after the tsunami. We sought to determine how people recognize biophysical changes in the environment before and after catastrophic events such as earthquakes and tsunamis and whether people have the ability to detect ecological changes over short time scales or need longer time scales to recognize changes. Indigenous people were able to detect changes in the benthos over time. Detection levels differed between marine science surveys and local ecological knowledge sources over time, but overall patterns of statistically significant detection of change were evident for various habitats. Our findings have implications for marine conservation, coastal management policies, and disaster-relief efforts because when people are able to detect ecological changes, this, in turn, affects how they exploit and manage their marine resources.

  15. Minimal time change detection algorithm for reconfigurable control system and application to aerospace

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kim, Sungwan

    1994-01-01

    System parameters should be tracked on-line to build a reconfigurable control system even though there exists an abrupt change. For this purpose, a new performance index that we are studying is the speed of adaptation- how quickly does the system determine that a change has occurred? In this paper, a new, robust algorithm that is optimized to minimize the time delay in detecting a change for fixed false alarm probability is proposed. Simulation results for the aircraft lateral motion with a known or unknown change in control gain matrices, in the presence of doublet input, indicate that the algorithm works fairly well. One of its distinguishing properties is that detection delay of this algorithm is superior to that of Whiteness Test.

  16. Anger superiority effect for change detection and change blindness.

    PubMed

    Lyyra, Pessi; Hietanen, Jari K; Astikainen, Piia

    2014-11-01

    In visual search, an angry face in a crowd "pops out" unlike a happy or a neutral face. This "anger superiority effect" conflicts with views of visual perception holding that complex stimulus contents cannot be detected without focused top-down attention. Implicit visual processing of threatening changes was studied by recording event-related potentials (ERPs) using facial stimuli using the change blindness paradigm, in which conscious change detection is eliminated by presenting a blank screen before the changes. Already before their conscious detection, angry faces modulated relatively early emotion sensitive ERPs when appearing among happy and neutral faces, but happy faces only among neutral, not angry faces. Conscious change detection was more efficient for angry than happy faces regardless of background. These findings indicate that the brain can implicitly extract complex emotional information from facial stimuli, and the biological relevance of threatening contents can speed up their break up into visual consciousness.

  17. Airborne change detection system for the detection of route mines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donzelli, Thomas P.; Jackson, Larry; Yeshnik, Mark; Petty, Thomas E.

    2003-09-01

    The US Army is interested in technologies that will enable it to maintain the free flow of traffic along routes such as Main Supply Routes (MSRs). Mines emplaced in the road by enemy forces under cover of darkness represent a major threat to maintaining a rapid Operational Tempo (OPTEMPO) along such routes. One technique that shows promise for detecting enemy mining activity is Airborne Change Detection, which allows an operator to detect suspicious day-to-day changes in and around the road that may be indicative of enemy mining. This paper presents an Airborne Change Detection that is currently under development at the US Army Night Vision and Electronic Sensors Directorate (NVESD). The system has been tested using a longwave infrared (LWIR) sensor on a vertical take-off and landing unmanned aerial vehicle (VTOL UAV) and a midwave infrared (MWIR) sensor on a fixed wing aircraft. The system is described and results of the various tests conducted to date are presented.

  18. Change detection and change blindness in pigeons (Columba livia).

    PubMed

    Herbranson, Walter T; Trinh, Yvan T; Xi, Patricia M; Arand, Mark P; Barker, Michael S K; Pratt, Theodore H

    2014-05-01

    Change blindness is a phenomenon in which even obvious details in a visual scene change without being noticed. Although change blindness has been studied extensively in humans, we do not yet know if it is a phenomenon that also occurs in other animals. Thus, investigation of change blindness in a nonhuman species may prove to be valuable by beginning to provide some insight into its ultimate causes. Pigeons learned a change detection task in which pecks to the location of a change in a sequence of stimulus displays were reinforced. They were worse at detecting changes if the stimulus displays were separated by a brief interstimulus interval, during which the display was blank, and this primary result matches the general pattern seen in previous studies of change blindness in humans. A second experiment attempted to identify specific stimulus characteristics that most reliably produced a failure to detect changes. Change detection was more difficult when interstimulus intervals were longer and when the change was iterated fewer times.

  19. Change Detection via Morphological Comparative Filters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vizilter, Y. V.; Rubis, A. Y.; Zheltov, S. Y.; Vygolov, O. V.

    2016-06-01

    In this paper we propose the new change detection technique based on morphological comparative filtering. This technique generalizes the morphological image analysis scheme proposed by Pytiev. A new class of comparative filters based on guided contrasting is developed. Comparative filtering based on diffusion morphology is implemented too. The change detection pipeline contains: comparative filtering on image pyramid, calculation of morphological difference map, binarization, extraction of change proposals and testing change proposals using local morphological correlation coefficient. Experimental results demonstrate the applicability of proposed approach.

  20. Change Detection Experiments Using Low Cost UAVs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Logan, Michael J.; Vranas, Thomas L.; Motter, Mark; Hines, Glenn D.; Rahman, Zia-ur

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents the progress in the development of a low-cost change-detection system. This system is being developed to provide users with the ability to use a low-cost unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and image processing system that can detect changes in specific fixed ground locations using video provided by an autonomous UAV. The results of field experiments conducted with the US Army at Ft. A.P.Hill are presented.

  1. Change Point Detection in Correlation Networks.

    PubMed

    Barnett, Ian; Onnela, Jukka-Pekka

    2016-01-07

    Many systems of interacting elements can be conceptualized as networks, where network nodes represent the elements and network ties represent interactions between the elements. In systems where the underlying network evolves, it is useful to determine the points in time where the network structure changes significantly as these may correspond to functional change points. We propose a method for detecting change points in correlation networks that, unlike previous change point detection methods designed for time series data, requires minimal distributional assumptions. We investigate the difficulty of change point detection near the boundaries of the time series in correlation networks and study the power of our method and competing methods through simulation. We also show the generalizable nature of the method by applying it to stock price data as well as fMRI data.

  2. Comparison of hyperspectral change detection algorithms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pieper, M.; Manolakis, D.; Truslow, E.; Cooley, T.; Brueggeman, M.; Weisner, A.; Jacobson, J.

    2015-09-01

    There are a multitude of civilian and military applications for the detection of anomalous changes in hyper-spectral images. Anomalous changes occur when the material within a pixel is replaced. Environmental factors that change over time, such as illumination, will affect the radiance of all the pixels in a scene, despite the materials within remaining constant. The goal of an anomalous change detection algorithm is to suppress changes caused by the environment, and detect pixels where the materials within have changed. Anomalous change detection is a two step process. Two co-registered images of a scene are first transformed to maximize the overall correlation between the images, then an anomalous change detector (ACD) is applied to the transformed images. The transforms maximize the correlation between the two images to attenuate the environmental differences that distract from the anomalous changes of importance. Several categories of transforms with different optimization parameters are discussed and compared. One of two types of ACDs are then applied to the transformed images. The first ACD uses the difference of the two transformed images. The second concatenates the spectra of two images and uses an aggregated ACD. A comparison of the two ACD methods and their effectiveness with the different transforms is done for the first time.

  3. A hybrid algorithm for multiple change-point detection in continuous measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Priyadarshana, W. J. R. M.; Polushina, T.; Sofronov, G.

    2013-10-01

    Array comparative genomic hybridization (aCGH) is one of the techniques that can be used to detect copy number variations in DNA sequences. It has been identified that abrupt changes in the human genome play a vital role in the progression and development of many diseases. We propose a hybrid algorithm that utilizes both the sequential techniques and the Cross-Entropy method to estimate the number of change points as well as their locations in aCGH data. We applied the proposed hybrid algorithm to both artificially generated data and real data to illustrate the usefulness of the methodology. Our results show that the proposed algorithm is an effective method to detect multiple change-points in continuous measurements.

  4. Sensor for detecting changes in magnetic fields

    DOEpatents

    Praeg, W.F.

    1980-02-26

    A sensor is described for detecting changes in the magnetic field of the equilibrium-field coil of a Tokamak plasma device that comprises a pair of bifilar wires disposed circumferentially, one inside and one outside the equilibrium-field coil. Each is shorted at one end. The difference between the voltages detected at the other ends of the bifilar wires provides a measure of changing flux in the equilibrium-field coil. This difference can be used to detect faults in the coil in time to take action to protect the coil.

  5. Sensor for detecting changes in magnetic fields

    DOEpatents

    Praeg, Walter F.

    1981-01-01

    A sensor for detecting changes in the magnetic field of the equilibrium-field coil of a Tokamak plasma device comprises a pair of bifilar wires disposed circumferentially, one inside and one outside the equilibrium-field coil. Each is shorted at one end. The difference between the voltages detected at the other ends of the bifilar wires provides a measure of changing flux in the equilibrium-field coil. This difference can be used to detect faults in the coil in time to take action to protect the coil.

  6. Detecting thermohaline circulation changes from ocean properties in a coupled model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, Aixue; Meehl, Gerald A.; Han, Weiqing

    2004-07-01

    Significant changes of the thermohaline circulation (THC) are likely to cause abrupt climate change. Here we intend to find a simple measure to detect changes in THC through examining several factors proposed to control the THC variations using a coupled climate model. These factors are equatorial-South Atlantic upper ocean temperature, Southern Ocean freshening, inter-basin sea surface salinity contrast, and meridional steric height gradient. Three experiments are analyzed - a present-day control run, a freshwater hosing run and a 1% CO2 run. Results show that if freshwater flux is the primary cause, all examined factors can predict the THC changes. If both thermal and haline forcings are involved, only the Atlantic meridional steric height gradient gives a consistent measure of the THC variations. A new result presented here is that the inter-basin sea surface temperature contrast between North Atlantic and North Pacific is found to be an indicator of THC changes.

  7. lidar change detection using building models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Angela M.; Runyon, Scott C.; Jalobeanu, Andre; Esterline, Chelsea H.; Kruse, Fred A.

    2014-06-01

    Terrestrial LiDAR scans of building models collected with a FARO Focus3D and a RIEGL VZ-400 were used to investigate point-to-point and model-to-model LiDAR change detection. LiDAR data were scaled, decimated, and georegistered to mimic real world airborne collects. Two physical building models were used to explore various aspects of the change detection process. The first model was a 1:250-scale representation of the Naval Postgraduate School campus in Monterey, CA, constructed from Lego blocks and scanned in a laboratory setting using both the FARO and RIEGL. The second model at 1:8-scale consisted of large cardboard boxes placed outdoors and scanned from rooftops of adjacent buildings using the RIEGL. A point-to-point change detection scheme was applied directly to the point-cloud datasets. In the model-to-model change detection scheme, changes were detected by comparing Digital Surface Models (DSMs). The use of physical models allowed analysis of effects of changes in scanner and scanning geometry, and performance of the change detection methods on different types of changes, including building collapse or subsistence, construction, and shifts in location. Results indicate that at low false-alarm rates, the point-to-point method slightly outperforms the model-to-model method. The point-to-point method is less sensitive to misregistration errors in the data. Best results are obtained when the baseline and change datasets are collected using the same LiDAR system and collection geometry.

  8. The impact of misregistration on change detection

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Townshend, John R. G.; Justice, Christopher O.; Gurney, Charlotte; Mcmanus, James

    1992-01-01

    The impact of images misregistration on the detection of changes in land cover was studied using spatially degraded Landsat MSS images. Emphasis is placed on simulated images of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) at spatial resolutions of 250 and 500 m. It is pointed out that there is the need to achieve high values of registration accuracy. The evidence from simulations suggests that misregistrations can have a marked effect on the ability of remotely sensed data to detect changes in land cover. Even subpixel misregistrations can have a major impact, and the most marked proportional changes will tend to occur at the finest misregistrations.

  9. Line matching for automatic change detection algorithm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dhollande, Jérôme; Monnin, David; Gond, Laetitia; Cudel, Christophe; Kohler, Sophie; Dieterlen, Alain

    2012-06-01

    During foreign operations, Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) are one of major threats that soldiers may unfortunately encounter along itineraries. Based on a vehicle-mounted camera, we propose an original approach by image comparison to detect signicant changes on these roads. The classic 2D-image registration techniques do not take into account parallax phenomena. The consequence is that the misregistration errors could be detected as changes. According to stereovision principles, our automatic method compares intensity proles along corresponding epipolar lines by extrema matching. An adaptive space warping compensates scale dierence in 3D-scene. When the signals are matched, the signal dierence highlights changes which are marked in current video.

  10. Automated change detection for synthetic aperture sonar

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    G-Michael, Tesfaye; Marchand, Bradley; Tucker, J. D.; Sternlicht, Daniel D.; Marston, Timothy M.; Azimi-Sadjadi, Mahmood R.

    2014-05-01

    In this paper, an automated change detection technique is presented that compares new and historical seafloor images created with sidescan synthetic aperture sonar (SAS) for changes occurring over time. The method consists of a four stage process: a coarse navigational alignment; fine-scale co-registration using the scale invariant feature transform (SIFT) algorithm to match features between overlapping images; sub-pixel co-registration to improves phase coherence; and finally, change detection utilizing canonical correlation analysis (CCA). The method was tested using data collected with a high-frequency SAS in a sandy shallow-water environment. By using precise co-registration tools and change detection algorithms, it is shown that the coherent nature of the SAS data can be exploited and utilized in this environment over time scales ranging from hours through several days.

  11. Holistic processing improves change detection but impairs change identification.

    PubMed

    Mathis, Katherine M; Kahan, Todd A

    2014-10-01

    It has been just over a century since Gestalt psychologists described the factors that contribute to the holistic processing of visually presented stimuli. Recent research indicates that holistic processing may come at a cost; specifically, the perception of holistic forms may reduce the visibility of constituent parts. In the present experiment, we examined change detection and change identification accuracy with Kanizsa rectangle patterns that were arranged to either form a Gestalt whole or not. Results from an experiment with 62 participants support this trade-off in processing holistic forms. Holistic processing improved the detection of change but obstructed its identification. Results are discussed in terms of both their theoretical significance and their application in areas ranging from baggage screening and the detection of changes in radiological images to the systems that are used to generate composite images of perpetrators on the basis of eyewitness reports.

  12. NOVELTY DETECTION UNDER CHANGING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS

    SciTech Connect

    H. SOHN; K. WORDER; C. R. FARRAR

    2001-04-01

    The primary objective of novelty detection is to examine a system's dynamic response to determine if the system significantly deviates from an initial baseline condition. In reality, the system is often subject to changing environmental and operation conditions that affect its dynamic characteristics. Such variations include changes in loading, boundary conditions, temperature, and moisture. Most damage diagnosis techniques, however, generally neglect the effects of these changing ambient conditions. Here, a novelty detection technique is developed explicitly taking into account these natural variations of the system in order to minimize false positive indications of true system changes. Auto-associative neural networks are employed to discriminate system changes of interest such as structural deterioration and damage from the natural variations of the system.

  13. Parametric probability distributions for anomalous change detection

    SciTech Connect

    Theiler, James P; Foy, Bernard R; Wohlberg, Brendt E; Scovel, James C

    2010-01-01

    The problem of anomalous change detection arises when two (or possibly more) images are taken of the same scene, but at different times. The aim is to discount the 'pervasive differences' that occur thoughout the imagery, due to the inevitably different conditions under which the images were taken (caused, for instance, by differences in illumination, atmospheric conditions, sensor calibration, or misregistration), and to focus instead on the 'anomalous changes' that actually take place in the scene. In general, anomalous change detection algorithms attempt to model these normal or pervasive differences, based on data taken directly from the imagery, and then identify as anomalous those pixels for which the model does not hold. For many algorithms, these models are expressed in terms of probability distributions, and there is a class of such algorithms that assume the distributions are Gaussian. By considering a broader class of distributions, however, a new class of anomalous change detection algorithms can be developed. We consider several parametric families of such distributions, derive the associated change detection algorithms, and compare the performance with standard algorithms that are based on Gaussian distributions. We find that it is often possible to significantly outperform these standard algorithms, even using relatively simple non-Gaussian models.

  14. 300,000 Years of Asian Monsoon History from Caves: Piecing Together the Patterns, Triggers, and Feedbacks of Abrupt and Orbital-Scale Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Edwards, R.; Cheng, H.; Wang, Y.; Yuan, D.; An, Z.; Kelly, M. J.; Dykoski, C. A.; Wang, X.

    2007-12-01

    We present a continuous 300,000-year record of the oxygen isotopic composition of cave calcite from stalagmites from Hulu, Dongge, and Shanbao Caves, in southeastern China. In its present state, the record is substantially improved in resolution (oxygen isotope resolution of a few to several decades) and range over published results. The record is, in essence, a history of the oxygen isotopic composition of meteoric precipitation through time, which, in turn, is related to monsoonal precipitation in the region. The chronology is established with precise uranium-thorium ages. The monsoon is dominated by orbital-scale variability throughout, and millennial-scale variability during glacial periods. At orbital scales, the monsoon follows northern summer insolation with no discernable phase shift, supporting a direct link between seasonal heating and the monsoon. At millennial scales, the last glacial record correlates strikingly with that observed in Greenland, with Chinese correlatives to all 25 Greenland interstadial events, and broadly similar millennial-scale sequences observed and established for the penultimate and antepenultimate glacial periods. The monsoon exhibits remarkable relationships with the ice core atmospheric gas record. A tie to the oxygen isotopic composition of atmospheric oxygen supports the idea that shifts in the monsoon and low latitude hydrology change the Dole Effect, likely through a combination of changing terrestrial productivity and changes in the average isotopic composition of waters used by land plants. A close tie to methane confirms links among atmospheric methane, the low latitude hydrologic cycle, and the extent of low-latitude wetlands. We are able to correlate features in the monsoon record to ice core, marine, and other cave records, thereby establishing, for key periods, the timing and sequence of events recorded around the globe in different surface environments. Correlation strategies include the methane-monsoon relationship

  15. Detecting Landscape Change: The View from Above

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Porter, Jess

    2008-01-01

    This article will demonstrate an approach for discovering and assessing local landscape change through the use of remotely sensed images. A brief introduction to remotely sensed imagery is followed by a discussion of relevant ways to introduce this technology into the college science classroom. The Map Detective activity demonstrates the…

  16. Abrupt and severe 20th Century changes in the fire regimes of southeastern Australia: Evidence from a 3000 year multi-proxy analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baker, Patrick; Mooney, Scott; Allen, Kathryn; Willersdorf, Timothy

    2015-04-01

    Fire is the dominant natural disturbance in southeastern Australia. For millennia it has been the driving force shaping terrestrial ecosystems in the region -- simultaneously killing vegetation and initiating regeneration across whole landscapes. Fire regimes across the region are driven by several factors including climate, vegetation, and ignition sources. Humans have been a significant contributing factor to past and present fire regimes. Prior to European settlement in the late 1700s, Aboriginal Australians used frequent, low-intensity fires to manage vegetation across much of the landscape. European settlement led to the displacement of Aboriginal communities and a shift to active fire suppression and control. This changing approach to fire management is widely believed to have initiated a fundamental shift towards extreme, high-intensity fire events as fuel loads increased. In addition, during the 20th Century prolonged periods of warm, dry conditions have occurred with greater frequency and intensity. The relative importance of climate and fire management practices on contemporary fire regimes is vigorously debated in Australia and is directly relevant to land management policies and their implementation. To put the current fire regime into historical context, we used a multi-proxy approach combining palaeo-charcoal and tree-ring analyses to assess how fire regimes have changed over the last 3000 years in the Snowy Mountains region of southeastern Australia. We found almost no evidence of high-intensity fires in the 3000 years that preceded the 20th Century. However, in the mid-20th Century there is a sudden and dramatic increase in the presence of charcoal and the pulsed establishment of trees across the landscape, suggesting a recent shift from low-intensity fires with minimal charcoal signatures to moderate- to high-intensity fires with substantial charcoal inputs. Importantly, the tree-ring data demonstrate that most of these fires were not stand

  17. Automatic change detection using mobile laser scanning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hebel, M.; Hammer, M.; Gordon, M.; Arens, M.

    2014-10-01

    Automatic change detection in 3D environments requires the comparison of multi-temporal data. By comparing current data with past data of the same area, changes can be automatically detected and identified. Volumetric changes in the scene hint at suspicious activities like the movement of military vehicles, the application of camouflage nets, or the placement of IEDs, etc. In contrast to broad research activities in remote sensing with optical cameras, this paper addresses the topic using 3D data acquired by mobile laser scanning (MLS). We present a framework for immediate comparison of current MLS data to given 3D reference data. Our method extends the concept of occupancy grids known from robot mapping, which incorporates the sensor positions in the processing of the 3D point clouds. This allows extracting the information that is included in the data acquisition geometry. For each single range measurement, it becomes apparent that an object reflects laser pulses in the measured range distance, i.e., space is occupied at that 3D position. In addition, it is obvious that space is empty along the line of sight between sensor and the reflecting object. Everywhere else, the occupancy of space remains unknown. This approach handles occlusions and changes implicitly, such that the latter are identifiable by conflicts of empty space and occupied space. The presented concept of change detection has been successfully validated in experiments with recorded MLS data streams. Results are shown for test sites at which MLS data were acquired at different time intervals.

  18. Total least squares for anomalous change detection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Theiler, James; Matsekh, Anna M.

    2010-04-01

    A family of subtraction-based anomalous change detection algorithms is derived from a total least squares (TLSQ) framework. This provides an alternative to the well-known chronochrome algorithm, which is derived from ordinary least squares. In both cases, the most anomalous changes are identified with the pixels that exhibit the largest residuals with respect to the regression of the two images against each other. The family of TLSQbased anomalous change detectors is shown to be equivalent to the subspace RX formulation for straight anomaly detection, but applied to the stacked space. However, this family is not invariant to linear coordinate transforms. On the other hand, whitened TLSQ is coordinate invariant, and special cases of it are equivalent to canonical correlation analysis and optimized covariance equalization. What whitened TLSQ offers is a generalization of these algorithms with the potential for better performance.

  19. Abrupt plate accelerations shape rifted continental margins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brune, Sascha; Williams, Simon E.; Butterworth, Nathaniel P.; Müller, R. Dietmar

    2016-08-01

    Rifted margins are formed by persistent stretching of continental lithosphere until breakup is achieved. It is well known that strain-rate-dependent processes control rift evolution, yet quantified extension histories of Earth’s major passive margins have become available only recently. Here we investigate rift kinematics globally by applying a new geotectonic analysis technique to revised global plate reconstructions. We find that rifted margins feature an initial, slow rift phase (less than ten millimetres per year, full rate) and that an abrupt increase of plate divergence introduces a fast rift phase. Plate acceleration takes place before continental rupture and considerable margin area is created during each phase. We reproduce the rapid transition from slow to fast extension using analytical and numerical modelling with constant force boundary conditions. The extension models suggest that the two-phase velocity behaviour is caused by a rift-intrinsic strength–velocity feedback, which can be robustly inferred for diverse lithosphere configurations and rheologies. Our results explain differences between proximal and distal margin areas and demonstrate that abrupt plate acceleration during continental rifting is controlled by the nonlinear decay of the resistive rift strength force. This mechanism provides an explanation for several previously unexplained rapid absolute plate motion changes, offering new insights into the balance of plate driving forces through time.

  20. Abrupt plate accelerations shape rifted continental margins.

    PubMed

    Brune, Sascha; Williams, Simon E; Butterworth, Nathaniel P; Müller, R Dietmar

    2016-08-11

    Rifted margins are formed by persistent stretching of continental lithosphere until breakup is achieved. It is well known that strain-rate-dependent processes control rift evolution, yet quantified extension histories of Earth's major passive margins have become available only recently. Here we investigate rift kinematics globally by applying a new geotectonic analysis technique to revised global plate reconstructions. We find that rifted margins feature an initial, slow rift phase (less than ten millimetres per year, full rate) and that an abrupt increase of plate divergence introduces a fast rift phase. Plate acceleration takes place before continental rupture and considerable margin area is created during each phase. We reproduce the rapid transition from slow to fast extension using analytical and numerical modelling with constant force boundary conditions. The extension models suggest that the two-phase velocity behaviour is caused by a rift-intrinsic strength--velocity feedback, which can be robustly inferred for diverse lithosphere configurations and rheologies. Our results explain differences between proximal and distal margin areas and demonstrate that abrupt plate acceleration during continental rifting is controlled by the nonlinear decay of the resistive rift strength force. This mechanism provides an explanation for several previously unexplained rapid absolute plate motion changes, offering new insights into the balance of plate driving forces through time.

  1. Abrupt plate accelerations shape rifted continental margins.

    PubMed

    Brune, Sascha; Williams, Simon E; Butterworth, Nathaniel P; Müller, R Dietmar

    2016-08-11

    Rifted margins are formed by persistent stretching of continental lithosphere until breakup is achieved. It is well known that strain-rate-dependent processes control rift evolution, yet quantified extension histories of Earth's major passive margins have become available only recently. Here we investigate rift kinematics globally by applying a new geotectonic analysis technique to revised global plate reconstructions. We find that rifted margins feature an initial, slow rift phase (less than ten millimetres per year, full rate) and that an abrupt increase of plate divergence introduces a fast rift phase. Plate acceleration takes place before continental rupture and considerable margin area is created during each phase. We reproduce the rapid transition from slow to fast extension using analytical and numerical modelling with constant force boundary conditions. The extension models suggest that the two-phase velocity behaviour is caused by a rift-intrinsic strength--velocity feedback, which can be robustly inferred for diverse lithosphere configurations and rheologies. Our results explain differences between proximal and distal margin areas and demonstrate that abrupt plate acceleration during continental rifting is controlled by the nonlinear decay of the resistive rift strength force. This mechanism provides an explanation for several previously unexplained rapid absolute plate motion changes, offering new insights into the balance of plate driving forces through time. PMID:27437571

  2. Could massive Arctic sea ice export to the North Atlantic be the real cause of abrupt climate change during the last deglaciation?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coletti, A. J.; Condron, A.

    2015-12-01

    Using a coupled ocean-sea ice model (MITgcm), we investigate whether the break-up and mobilization of thick, multiyear, Arctic sea ice might have supplied enough freshwater to the Nordic Seas to reduce North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) formation and weaken the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Numerical simulations of a Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) environment show the potential for sea ice to grow to ~30m thick, storing ~1.41x105 km3 of freshwater as sea ice in the Arctic (this is ~10 times the volume of freshwater stored in the modern-day Arctic). Releasing this volume of sea ice from the Arctic in 1-yr is equivalent to a high-latitude freshwater forcing of ~4.5 Sv, which is comparable (or larger) in magnitude to most meltwater floods emanating from land-based glacial lakes (e.g. Agassiz) during the last deglaciation. Opening of the Bering Strait and Barents Sea are two plausible mechanisms that may have initiated sea ice mobilization. Opening Bering Strait increases sea ice transport through the Fram Strait by 7% and results in a 22% weakening of AMOC for 2000 years and a >3°C warming in the Arctic basin at 800 m depth. Opening Barents Sea to simulate a collapse of the Fennoscandian ice sheet has little impact on Arctic sea ice and freshwater export to the North Atlantic, but weakens AMOC ~8%. In a simulation with both straits open there is a transition to near-modern sea ice circulation pattern and a 24% reduction in AMOC. Experiments with the Bering Strait open and sea ice artificially capped to 10 m show barely any difference to those when sea ice can grow to ~30m, suggesting that changes in topography have a much greater impact on AMOC than the freshwater forcing from sea ice melting in the Nordic Seas.

  3. Olfactory processing: detection of rapid changes.

    PubMed

    Croy, Ilona; Krone, Franziska; Walker, Susannah; Hummel, Thomas

    2015-06-01

    Changes in the olfactory environment have a rather poor chance of being detected. Aim of the present study was to determine, whether the same (cued) or different (uncued) odors can generally be detected at short inter stimulus intervals (ISI) below 2.5 s. Furthermore we investigated, whether inhibition of return, an attentional phenomenon facilitating the detection of new stimuli at longer ISI, is present in the domain of olfaction. Thirteen normosmic people (3 men, 10 women; age range 19-27 years; mean age 23 years) participated. Stimulation was performed using air-dilution olfactometry with 2 odors: phenylethylalcohol and hydrogen disulfide. Reaction time to target stimuli was assessed in cued and uncued conditions at ISIs of 1, 1.5, 2, and 2.5 s. There was a significant main effect of ISI, indicating that odors presented only 1 s apart are missed frequently. Uncued presentation facilitated detection at short ISIs, implying that changes of the olfactory environment are detected better than presentation of the same odor again. Effects in relation to "olfactory inhibition of return," on the other hand, are not supported by our results. This suggests that attention works different for the olfactory system compared with the visual and auditory systems.

  4. Abrupt seasonal variation of the ITCZ and the Hadley circulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, Yongyun; Li, Dawei; Liu, Jiping

    2007-09-01

    Using Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) daily data, we show that the seasonal migration of the global zonal-mean intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is not smooth, but jumps from the winter hemisphere to the summer hemisphere. The abrupt migration is within 10 days. Detailed analyses reveal that the phenomenon of the abrupt seasonal migration of the ITCZ mainly exists over particular tropical domains, such as Indian Ocean, western and central Pacific, and South America, which gives the rise of the jump of the global zonal-mean ITCZ. Because the ITCZ constitutes the ascending branch of the Hadley circulation, we also examine whether there exists such an abrupt seasonal change in the Hadley circulation. It is found that the intensity of the Hadley cells evolves smoothly with time. However, the horizontal scales of the Hadley cells demonstrate abrupt seasonal changes, corresponding to the abrupt seasonal migration of the global ITCZ. The winter cell extends rapidly across the equator, while the summer cell rapidly narrows. This suggests that the solsticial cell is the dominant component of the Hadley circulation, and that the equinoctial symmetric pattern is ephemeral.

  5. Millennial-Scale Abrupt Changes in Strength of the Monsoons During the Last Glacial: Event Sequence During Low Latitude Stadial/Interstadial Transitions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Higginson, M. J.; Altabet, M. A.; Wincze, L.; Herbert, T. D.; Murray, D. W.; Murray, R. W.

    2003-12-01

    dominant during maximum interstadial-like conditions. However, each interval was separated by a distinct `inter-monsoon' mode, indicated by a higher continental dust flux but warmer SST. Proxy records for changing bottom-water oxygenation show near-identical results down to the mm-scale, but hint at increased export production leading the onset of anoxia during the stadial/inter-stadial transition. The coherence of all sedimentary signals depicts a wholesale reorganization of the Arabian Sea climate and marine ecosystem over approximately 200 years, an interval that may be associated with monsoon modulation by small oscillations in solar irradiance.

  6. Relevance of Palynological Data for Reconstruction of Abrupt Climatic Change in the Neotropics Region, Based on Marine Sediments from the Cariaco Basin, Caribbean Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Delusina, I.

    2007-05-01

    Pollen analyses from a deep marine core from the anoxic Cariaco Basin, off the coast of Venezuela, encompass the Late Glacial/Bolling-Allerod transition, through the Younger Dryas and into the beginning of the Preboreal. The unique pollen assemblages indicate significant differences, as well as some basic similarities, with pollen results from continental cross-sections and lacustrine deposits of Neotropical regions. Interpretation of the pollen data from these marine sediments must address the specific challenge of distinguishing the climatic signal from preservation patterns in the marine environment. Because the Cariaco Basin acts as a natural sediment trap for rapidly accumulating sediments of marine and terrestrial origin, it provides an opportunity to compare both signals. The pollen assemblages in the basin mirror the complex altitudinal zonation of the coastal vegetation as well as its dynamics in the marine environment which went through the oxic-anoxic transition. Correlation of the pollen data with percentage of sediment lightness, oxygen isotopes, and titanium/iron concentrations in other Cariaco basin cores, as well as a comparison with vascular plant data, shows that the pollen signal is related to climatic events, rather than to a simple preservation pattern. However, an increase in pollen productivity might not be indicative of climate conditions, but of increased discharge of terrigenous material from the continent. The relative constancy in the pollen list and the gradual change in the percentage of counted palynomorphs and the diversity of pollen assemblages speaks to altitudinal reconstruction of vegetation. Thus, the Montana rain forest predominated over deciduous Montana forest or Paramo elements during Bolling-Allerod time, but didn't replace them. At the end of the Late Glacial and in the middle of Younger Dryas time, seasonally dry forest prevailed. At the end of a Heinrich Event (ca 15,500 cal B.P.), the largest shift in vegetation

  7. A stratigraphic framework for naming and robust correlation of abrupt climatic changes during the last glacial period based on three synchronized Greenland ice core records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rasmussen, Sune O.

    2014-05-01

    Due to their outstanding resolution and well-constrained chronologies, Greenland ice core records have long been used as a master record of past climatic changes during the last interglacial-glacial cycle in the North Atlantic region. As part of the INTIMATE (INtegration of Ice-core, MArine and TErrestrial records) project, protocols have been proposed to ensure consistent and robust correlation between different records of past climate. A key element of these protocols has been the formal definition of numbered Greenland Stadials (GS) and Greenland Interstadials (GI) within the past glacial period as the Greenland expressions of the characteristic Dansgaard-Oeschger events that represent cold and warm phases of the North Atlantic region, respectively. Using a recent synchronization of the NGRIP, GRIP, and GISP2 ice cores that allows the parallel analysis of all three records on a common time scale, we here present an extension of the GS/GI stratigraphic template to the entire glacial period. This is based on a combination of isotope ratios (δ18O, reflecting mainly local temperature) and calcium concentrations (reflecting mainly atmospheric dust loading). In addition to the well-known sequence of Dansgaard-Oeschger events that were first defined and numbered in the ice core records more than two decades ago, a number of short-lived climatic oscillations have been identified in the three synchronized records. Some of these events have been observed in other studies, but we here propose a consistent scheme for discriminating and naming all the significant climatic events of the last glacial period that are represented in the Greenland ice cores. This is a key step aimed at promoting unambiguous comparison and correlation between different proxy records, as well as a more secure basis for investigating the dynamics and fundamental causes of these climatic perturbations. The work presented is under review for publication in Quaternary Science Reviews. Author team: S

  8. Total least squares for anomalous change detection

    SciTech Connect

    Theiler, James P; Matsekh, Anna M

    2010-01-01

    A family of difference-based anomalous change detection algorithms is derived from a total least squares (TLSQ) framework. This provides an alternative to the well-known chronochrome algorithm, which is derived from ordinary least squares. In both cases, the most anomalous changes are identified with the pixels that exhibit the largest residuals with respect to the regression of the two images against each other. The family of TLSQ-based anomalous change detectors is shown to be equivalent to the subspace RX formulation for straight anomaly detection, but applied to the stacked space. However, this family is not invariant to linear coordinate transforms. On the other hand, whitened TLSQ is coordinate invariant, and furthermore it is shown to be equivalent to the optimized covariance equalization algorithm. What whitened TLSQ offers, in addition to connecting with a common language the derivations of two of the most popular anomalous change detection algorithms - chronochrome and covariance equalization - is a generalization of these algorithms with the potential for better performance.

  9. Detecting changes during pregnancy with Raman spectroscopy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vargis, Elizabeth; Robertson, Kesha; Al-Hendy, Ayman; Reese, Jeff; Mahadevan-Jansen, Anita

    2010-02-01

    Preterm labor is the second leading cause of neonatal mortality and leads to a myriad of complications like delayed development and cerebral palsy. Currently, there is no way to accurately predict preterm labor, making its prevention and treatment virtually impossible. While there are some at-risk patients, over half of all preterm births do not fall into any high-risk category. This study seeks to predict and prevent preterm labor by using Raman spectroscopy to detect changes in the cervix during pregnancy. Since Raman spectroscopy has been used to detect cancers in vivo in organs like the cervix and skin, it follows that spectra will change over the course of pregnancy. Previous studies have shown that fluorescence decreased during pregnancy and increased during post-partum exams to pre-pregnancy levels. We believe significant changes will occur in the Raman spectra obtained during the course of pregnancy. In this study, Raman spectra from the cervix of pregnant mice and women will be acquired. Specific changes that occur due to cervical softening or changes in hormonal levels will be observed to understand the likelihood that a female mouse or a woman will enter labor.

  10. Detecting genetic responses to environmental change.

    PubMed

    Hoffmann, Ary A; Willi, Yvonne

    2008-06-01

    Changes in environmental conditions can rapidly shift allele frequencies in populations of species with relatively short generation times. Frequency shifts might be detectable in neutral genetic markers when stressful conditions cause a population decline. However, frequency shifts that are diagnostic of specific conditions depend on isolating sets of genes that are involved in adaptive responses. Shifts at candidate loci underlying adaptive responses and DNA regions that control their expression have now been linked to evolutionary responses to pollution, global warming and other changes. Conversely, adaptive constraints, particularly in physiological traits, are recognized through DNA decay in candidate genes. These approaches help researchers and conservation managers understand the power and constraints of evolution.

  11. Evaluation of object level change detection techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Irvine, John M.; Bergeron, Stuart; Hugo, Doug; O'Brien, Michael A.

    2007-04-01

    A variety of change detection (CD) methods have been developed and employed to support imagery analysis for applications including environmental monitoring, mapping, and support to military operations. Evaluation of these methods is necessary to assess technology maturity, identify areas for improvement, and support transition to operations. This paper presents a methodology for conducting this type of evaluation, discusses the challenges, and illustrates the techniques. The evaluation of object-level change detection methods is more complicated than for automated techniques for processing a single image. We explore algorithm performance assessments, emphasizing the definition of the operating conditions (sensor, target, and environmental factors) and the development of measures of performance. Specific challenges include image registration; occlusion due to foliage, cultural clutter and terrain masking; diurnal differences; and differences in viewing geometry. Careful planning, sound experimental design, and access to suitable imagery with image truth and metadata are critical.

  12. Detecting hydrological changes through conceptual model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Viola, Francesco; Caracciolo, Domenico; Pumo, Dario; Francipane, Antonio; Valerio Noto, Leonardo

    2015-04-01

    Natural changes and human modifications in hydrological systems coevolve and interact in a coupled and interlinked way. If, on one hand, climatic changes are stochastic, non-steady, and affect the hydrological systems, on the other hand, human-induced changes due to over-exploitation of soils and water resources modifies the natural landscape, water fluxes and its partitioning. Indeed, the traditional assumption of static systems in hydrological analysis, which has been adopted for long time, fails whenever transient climatic conditions and/or land use changes occur. Time series analysis is a way to explore environmental changes together with societal changes; unfortunately, the not distinguishability between causes restrict the scope of this method. In order to overcome this limitation, it is possible to couple time series analysis with an opportune hydrological model, such as a conceptual hydrological model, which offers a schematization of complex dynamics acting within a basin. Assuming that model parameters represent morphological basin characteristics and that calibration is a way to detect hydrological signature at a specific moment, it is possible to argue that calibrating the model over different time windows could be a method for detecting potential hydrological changes. In order to test the capabilities of a conceptual model in detecting hydrological changes, this work presents different "in silico" experiments. A synthetic-basin is forced with an ensemble of possible future scenarios generated with a stochastic weather generator able to simulate steady and non-steady climatic conditions. The experiments refer to Mediterranean climate, which is characterized by marked seasonality, and consider the outcomes of the IPCC 5th report for describing climate evolution in the next century. In particular, in order to generate future climate change scenarios, a stochastic downscaling in space and time is carried out using realizations of an ensemble of General

  13. Ischemia detection from morphological QRS angle changes.

    PubMed

    Romero, Daniel; Martínez, Juan Pablo; Laguna, Pablo; Pueyo, Esther

    2016-07-01

    In this paper, an ischemia detector is presented based on the analysis of QRS-derived angles. The detector has been developed by modeling ischemic effects on the QRS angles as a gradual change with a certain transition time and assuming a Laplacian additive modeling error contaminating the angle series. Both standard and non-standard leads were used for analysis. Non-standard leads were obtained by applying the PCA technique over specific lead subsets to represent different potential locations of the ischemic zone. The performance of the proposed detector was tested over a population of 79 patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention in one of the major coronary arteries (LAD (n  =  25), RCA (n  =  16) and LCX (n  =  38)). The best detection performance, obtained for standard ECG leads, was achieved in the LAD group with values of sensitivity and specificity of [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], followed by the RCA group with [Formula: see text], Sp  =  94.4 and the LCX group with [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], notably outperforming detection based on the ST series in all cases, with the same detector structure. The timing of the detected ischemic events ranged from 30 s up to 150 s (mean  =  66.8 s) following the start of occlusion. We conclude that changes in the QRS angles can be used to detect acute myocardial ischemia. PMID:27243441

  14. Seabed change detection in challenging environments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matthews, Cameron A.; Sternlicht, Daniel D.

    2011-06-01

    Automatic Change Detection (ACD) compares new and stored terrain images for alerting to changes occurring over time. These techniques, long used in airborne radar, are just beginning to be applied to sidescan sonar. Under the right conditions ACD by image correlation-comparing multi-temporal image data at the pixel or parcel level-can be used to detect new objects on the seafloor. Synthetic aperture sonars (SAS)-coherent sensors that produce fine-scale, range-independent resolution seafloor images-are well suited for this approach; however, dynamic seabed environments can introduce "clutter" to the process. This paper explores an ACD method that uses salience mapping in a global-to-local analysis architecture. In this method, termed Temporally Invariant Saliency (TIS), variance ratios of median-filtered repeat-pass images are used to detect new objects, while deemphasizing modest environmental or radiometric-induced changes in the background. Successful tests with repeat-pass data from two SAS systems mounted on autonomous undersea vehicles (AUV) demonstrate the feasibility of the technique.

  15. Scene change detection based on multimodal integration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, Yingying; Zhou, Dongru

    2003-09-01

    Scene change detection is an essential step to automatic and content-based video indexing, retrieval and browsing. In this paper, a robust scene change detection and classification approach is presented, which analyzes audio, visual and textual sources and accounts for their inter-relations and coincidence to semantically identify and classify video scenes. Audio analysis focuses on the segmentation of audio stream into four types of semantic data such as silence, speech, music and environmental sound. Further processing on speech segments aims at locating speaker changes. Video analysis partitions visual stream into shots. Text analysis can provide a supplemental source of clues for scene classification and indexing information. We integrate the video and audio analysis results to identify video scenes and use the text information detected by the video OCR technology or derived from transcripts available to refine scene classification. Results from single source segmentation are in some cases suboptimal. By combining visual, aural features adn the accessorial text information, the scence extraction accuracy is enhanced, and more semantic segmentations are developed. Experimental results are proven to rather promising.

  16. RESTORING COASTAL ECOSYSTEMS: ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Consensus exists that U.S. coastal ecosystems are severely degraded due to a variety of human-factors requiring large financial expenditures to restore and manage. Yet, even as controversy surrounds human factors in ecosystem degradation in the Gulf of Mexico, Chesapeake Bay, an...

  17. Abrupt Climate Change Research Act of 2009

    THOMAS, 111th Congress

    Sen. Collins, Susan M. [R-ME

    2009-09-14

    09/14/2009 Read twice and referred to the Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation. (text of measure as introduced: CR S9330) (All Actions) Tracker: This bill has the status IntroducedHere are the steps for Status of Legislation:

  18. Time series change detection: Algorithms for land cover change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boriah, Shyam

    can be used for decision making and policy planning purposes. In particular, previous change detection studies have primarily relied on examining differences between two or more satellite images acquired on different dates. Thus, a technological solution that detects global land cover change using high temporal resolution time series data will represent a paradigm-shift in the field of land cover change studies. To realize these ambitious goals, a number of computational challenges in spatio-temporal data mining need to be addressed. Specifically, analysis and discovery approaches need to be cognizant of climate and ecosystem data characteristics such as seasonality, non-stationarity/inter-region variability, multi-scale nature, spatio-temporal autocorrelation, high-dimensionality and massive data size. This dissertation, a step in that direction, translates earth science challenges to computer science problems, and provides computational solutions to address these problems. In particular, three key technical capabilities are developed: (1) Algorithms for time series change detection that are effective and can scale up to handle the large size of earth science data; (2) Change detection algorithms that can handle large numbers of missing and noisy values present in satellite data sets; and (3) Spatio-temporal analysis techniques to identify the scale and scope of disturbance events.

  19. Evaluation of change detection techniques for monitoring coastal zone environments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weismiller, R. A. (Principal Investigator); Kristof, S. J.; Scholz, D. K.; Anuta, P. E.; Momin, S. M.

    1977-01-01

    The author has identified the following significant results. Four change detection techniques were designed and implemented for evaluation: (1) post classification comparison change detection, (2) delta data change detection, (3) spectral/temporal change classification, and (4) layered spectral/temporal change classification. The post classification comparison technique reliably identified areas of change and was used as the standard for qualitatively evaluating the other three techniques. The layered spectral/temporal change classification and the delta data change detection results generally agreed with the post classification comparison technique results; however, many small areas of change were not identified. Major discrepancies existed between the post classification comparison and spectral/temporal change detection results.

  20. Abrupt Depletion Layer Approximation for the Metal Insulator Semiconductor Diode.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jones, Kenneth

    1979-01-01

    Determines the excess surface change carrier density, surface potential, and relative capacitance of a metal insulator semiconductor diode as a function of the gate voltage, using the precise questions and the equations derived with the abrupt depletion layer approximation. (Author/GA)

  1. Immunohistochemical Detection of Changes in Tumor Hypoxia

    SciTech Connect

    Russell, James Carlin, Sean; Burke, Sean A.; Wen Bixiu; Yang, Kwang Mo; Ling, C. Clifton

    2009-03-15

    Purpose: Although hypoxia is a known prognostic factor, its effect will be modified by the rate of reoxygenation and the extent to which the cells are acutely hypoxic. We tested the ability of exogenous and endogenous markers to detect reoxygenation in a xenograft model. Our technique might be applicable to stored patient samples. Methods and Materials: The human colorectal carcinoma line, HT29, was grown in nude mice. Changes in tumor hypoxia were examined by injection of pimonidazole, followed 24 hours later by EF5. Cryosections were stained for these markers and for carbonic anhydrase IX (CAIX) and hypoxia-inducible factor 1{alpha} (HIF1{alpha}). Tumor hypoxia was artificially manipulated by carbogen exposure. Results: In unstressed tumors, all four markers showed very similar spatial distributions. After carbogen treatment, pimonidazole and EF5 could detect decreased hypoxia. HIF1{alpha} staining was also decreased relative to CAIX, although the effect was less pronounced than for EF5. Control tumors displayed small regions that had undergone spontaneous changes in tumor hypoxia, as judged by pimonidazole relative to EF5; most of these changes were reflected by CAIX and HIF1{alpha}. Conclusion: HIF1{alpha} can be compared with either CAIX or a previously administered nitroimidazole to provide an estimate of reoxygenation.

  2. Nationwide Hybrid Change Detection of Buildings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hron, V.; Halounova, L.

    2016-06-01

    The Fundamental Base of Geographic Data of the Czech Republic (hereinafter FBGD) is a national 2D geodatabase at a 1:10,000 scale with more than 100 geographic objects. This paper describes the design of the permanent updating mechanism of buildings in FBGD. The proposed procedure belongs to the category of hybrid change detection (HCD) techniques which combine pixel-based and object-based evaluation. The main sources of information for HCD are cadastral information and bi-temporal vertical digital aerial photographs. These photographs have great information potential because they contain multispectral, position and also elevation information. Elevation information represents a digital surface model (DSM) which can be obtained using the image matching technique. Pixel-based evaluation of bi-temporal DSMs enables fast localization of places with potential building changes. These coarse results are subsequently classified through the object-based image analysis (OBIA) using spectral, textural and contextual features and GIS tools. The advantage of the two-stage evaluation is the pre-selection of locations where image segmentation (a computationally demanding part of OBIA) is performed. It is not necessary to apply image segmentation to the entire scene, but only to the surroundings of detected changes, which contributes to significantly faster processing and lower hardware requirements. The created technology is based on open-source software solutions that allow easy portability on multiple computers and parallelization of processing. This leads to significant savings of financial resources which can be expended on the further development of FBGD.

  3. Abrupt shifts in Horn of Africa hydroclimate since the Last Glacial Maximum.

    PubMed

    Tierney, Jessica E; deMenocal, Peter B

    2013-11-15

    The timing and abruptness of the initiation and termination of the Early Holocene African Humid Period are subjects of ongoing debate, with direct consequences for our understanding of abrupt climate change, paleoenvironments, and early human cultural development. Here, we provide proxy evidence from the Horn of Africa region that documents abrupt transitions into and out of the African Humid Period in northeast Africa. Similar and generally synchronous abrupt transitions at other East African sites suggest that rapid shifts in hydroclimate are a regionally coherent feature. Our analysis suggests that the termination of the African Humid Period in the Horn of Africa occurred within centuries, underscoring the nonlinearity of the region's hydroclimate. PMID:24114782

  4. Land Cover Change Detection from MODIS Vegetation Index Time Series Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mithal, V.; O'Connor, Z.; Steinhaeuser, K.; Boriah, S.; Kumar, V.; Potter, C. S.; Klooster, S. A.

    2012-12-01

    Quantifiable knowledge about changes occurring in land cover and land use at a global scale is key to effective planning for sustainable use of diminishing natural resources such as forest cover and agricultural land. Accurate and timely information about land cover and land use changes is therefore of significant interest to earth and climate scientists as well as policy and decision makers. Recently, global time series data sets, such as Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), have become publicly available and have been used to identify changes in vegetation cover. In this talk, we will discuss our work that analyzes the MODIS EVI time series data sets for global land cover change detection. Our group has developed a suite of time series change detection methods that are used to identify EVI time series with patterns indicative of land cover disturbance such as abrupt or gradual change, or changes in the recurring annual vegetation pattern. These algorithms can successfully identify different land cover change events such as deforestation, forest fires, agricultural conversions, and degradation due to insect damage at a global scale. In context of land cover monitoring, one of the significant challenges is posed by the differences in inter-annual variability and noise characteristics of different land cover types. These data characteristics can significantly impact change detection performance especially in land cover types such as farms, grasslands and tropical forests. We will discuss our recent work that incorporates a bootstrap-based normalization of change detection scores to account for the natural variability present in vegetation time series data. We studied the strengths and weakness of our proposed normalizing approaches in the context of characteristics of land cover data such as seasonality and noise and showed that relative performance of normalization approaches vary significantly depending on the

  5. Imaging, object detection, and change detection with a polarized multistatic GPR array

    DOEpatents

    Beer, N. Reginald; Paglieroni, David W.

    2015-07-21

    A polarized detection system performs imaging, object detection, and change detection factoring in the orientation of an object relative to the orientation of transceivers. The polarized detection system may operate on one of several modes of operation based on whether the imaging, object detection, or change detection is performed separately for each transceiver orientation. In combined change mode, the polarized detection system performs imaging, object detection, and change detection separately for each transceiver orientation, and then combines changes across polarizations. In combined object mode, the polarized detection system performs imaging and object detection separately for each transceiver orientation, and then combines objects across polarizations and performs change detection on the result. In combined image mode, the polarized detection system performs imaging separately for each transceiver orientation, and then combines images across polarizations and performs object detection followed by change detection on the result.

  6. Analysis of abrupt transitions in ecological systems

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The occurrence and causes of abrupt transitions, thresholds, or regime shifts between ecosystem states are of great concern and the likelihood of such transitions is increasing for many ecological systems. General understanding of abrupt transitions has been advanced by theory, but hindered by the l...

  7. Detecting past changes of effective population size.

    PubMed

    Nikolic, Natacha; Chevalet, Claude

    2014-06-01

    Understanding and predicting population abundance is a major challenge confronting scientists. Several genetic models have been developed using microsatellite markers to estimate the present and ancestral effective population sizes. However, to get an overview on the evolution of population requires that past fluctuation of population size be traceable. To address the question, we developed a new model estimating the past changes of effective population size from microsatellite by resolving coalescence theory and using approximate likelihoods in a Monte Carlo Markov Chain approach. The efficiency of the model and its sensitivity to gene flow and to assumptions on the mutational process were checked using simulated data and analysis. The model was found especially useful to provide evidence of transient changes of population size in the past. The times at which some past demographic events cannot be detected because they are too ancient and the risk that gene flow may suggest the false detection of a bottleneck are discussed considering the distribution of coalescence times. The method was applied on real data sets from several Atlantic salmon populations. The method called VarEff (Variation of Effective size) was implemented in the R package VarEff and is made available at https://qgsp.jouy.inra.fr and at http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/VarEff.

  8. Point pattern match-based change detection in a constellation of previously detected objects

    DOEpatents

    Paglieroni, David W.

    2016-06-07

    A method and system is provided that applies attribute- and topology-based change detection to objects that were detected on previous scans of a medium. The attributes capture properties or characteristics of the previously detected objects, such as location, time of detection, detection strength, size, elongation, orientation, etc. The locations define a three-dimensional network topology forming a constellation of previously detected objects. The change detection system stores attributes of the previously detected objects in a constellation database. The change detection system detects changes by comparing the attributes and topological consistency of newly detected objects encountered during a new scan of the medium to previously detected objects in the constellation database. The change detection system may receive the attributes of the newly detected objects as the objects are detected by an object detection system in real time.

  9. Abrupt increase in east Indonesian rainfall from flooding of the Sunda Shelf ˜9500 years ago

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Griffiths, Michael L.; Drysdale, Russell N.; Gagan, Michael K.; Zhao, Jian-xin; Hellstrom, John C.; Ayliffe, Linda K.; Hantoro, Wahyoe S.

    2013-08-01

    We present a precisely dated, multi-proxy stalagmite record from Liang Luar Cave, Flores (southeast Indonesia) that reveals a rapid increase in Indonesian monsoon rainfall at ˜9.5 ka. A "ramp-fitting" method for detecting statistically significant inflections in a time-series was applied to the stalagmite δ18O, Mg/Ca, and Sr/Ca profiles to quantify the precise timing and magnitude of an abrupt increase in monsoon strength over a period of ˜350 years. Previously published lake-level records from the monsoon-affected Australian interior show a sudden intensification of the Australian monsoon at ˜14 ka. However, our records indicate that monsoon intensification in Flores occured ˜4-5 kyr later. The timing of the monsoon shift in Flores is synchronous with the rapid expansion of rainforest in northeast Australia and regional freshening of the southern Makassar Strait which, under present-day conditions, is sensitive to monsoon variability. The freshening of southern Makassar was coeval with an abrupt ˜1.5 °C cooling in the upper thermocline of the Timor Sea ˜9.5 ka, indicative of reduced surface heat transport by the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) when the Java Sea opened during postglacial sea-level rise. This suggests that the abrupt increase in monsoon rainfall on Flores was not due to a change in the ITF - because a decrease in rainfall would be expected to accompany cooler local sea surface temperatures (SSTs) - but rather by the sudden increase in ocean surface area and/or temperature in the monsoon source region as the Sunda Shelf flooded during deglaciation. We propose that it was the abrupt intensification of the monsoon through the late deglaciation that maintained the subsequent structure of the ITF following the flooding of the Sunda Shelf at ˜9.5 ka.

  10. An approach for detecting changes related to natural disasters using Synthetic Aperture Radar data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Milisavljevic, N.; Closson, D.; Holecz, F.; Collivignarelli, F.; Pasquali, P.

    2015-04-01

    Land-cover changes occur naturally in a progressive and gradual way, but they may happen rapidly and abruptly sometimes. Very high resolution remote sensed data acquired at different time intervals can help in analyzing the rate of changes and the causal factors. In this paper, we present an approach for detecting changes related to disasters such as an earthquake and for mapping of the impact zones. The approach is based on the pieces of information coming from SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) and on their combination. The case study is the 22 February 2011 Christchurch earthquake. The identification of damaged or destroyed buildings using SAR data is a challenging task. The approach proposed here consists in finding amplitude changes as well as coherence changes before and after the earthquake and then combining these changes in order to obtain richer and more robust information on the origin of various types of changes possibly induced by an earthquake. This approach does not need any specific knowledge source about the terrain, but if such sources are present, they can be easily integrated in the method as more specific descriptions of the possible classes. A special task in our approach is to develop a scheme that translates the obtained combinations of changes into ground information. Several algorithms are developed and validated using optical remote sensing images of the city two days after the earthquake, as well as our own ground-truth data. The obtained validation results show that the proposed approach is promising.

  11. Precipitation and temperature changes in eastern India by multiple trend detection methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharma, Chandra Shekhar; Panda, Sudhindra N.; Pradhan, Rudra P.; Singh, Amanpreet; Kawamura, Akira

    2016-11-01

    The present study deals with spatial and temporal trend analysis of precipitation and temperature (1970-2004) in eastern India. Long-term trend direction and magnitude of change over time (annual and seasonal) were detected and analyzed by Mann-Kendall test, Sen's slope estimator, Least square linear regression, Spearman rank correlation and Sequential Mann-Kendall test. In addition to it, correlation analysis was also performed. Trend analysis of annual rainfall by different methods indicated similar annual trends in eastern India. North-eastern, south-eastern and western parts of eastern India indicated increasing trend, whereas the north-western, central and southern parts showed decreasing trend. A similar trend was observed by different methods in case of seasonal rainfall. During winter season, decreasing trend was observed in the central part, whereas similar results were obtained for pre-and post-monsoon in the western part. The trend during monsoon season was found similar to annual rainfall trend. Abrupt change in trend of rainfall with time was lacking in eastern India. Maximum temperature analysis indicated increasing trend in the western part for all the seasons (except in monsoon) and decreasing trend in the eastern part. On the contrary, increasing trend was observed in the eastern part and decreasing trend in the western half of the study area for all the seasons in case of minimum temperature. Significant changes were observed during monsoon season as compared to other seasons. A decreasing trend in mean temperature was observed in the central, southern and north western parts, whereas it was found to be increasing in the north-eastern, western and south-eastern parts. In majority of the eastern India region, any abrupt change of trend in temperatures with time was not clearly observed. Negative correlation between rainfall and maximum temperature was observed in the entire eastern India. Similar results were observed in case of minimum temperature

  12. A 2400-year record of abrupt climate change from Almalou Crate Lake in NW Iran: Investigating the potential influence of solar variability on the climate of West Asia during late Holocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharifi, A.; Pourmand, A.; Canuel, E. A.; Naderi Beni, A.; Lahijani, H. A.

    2013-12-01

    The Mediterranean climate of northwest Iran is influenced by mid-latitude Westerlies and the winter expansion of the Siberian Anticyclone. Given the significance of this region in development of human civilizations, high-resolution reconstructions of abrupt climate change are of particular interest during the Holocene. Almalou Crater Lake sustains the growth of plants inside the crater of a dormant volcanic cone on the eastern flank of the Sahand volcanic district in NW Iran. At an elevation of 2491 m.a.s.l., the crater is exclusively fed by rainfall during the spring and fall and snowfall during the winter. Preservation of organic matter within the crater can potentially record changes in atmospheric deposition and paleo-environmental conditions over this region. To reconstruct changes in atmospheric aeolian input, we present a high-resolution (sub-decadal) multi-proxy record of climate variability during the last 2400 years from a 3-m peat core recovered from the crater peat bog. Radiocarbon dates of eight samples along the core show a nearly constant rate of accumulation (7.7 mm yr-1, R2=0.98) since 2404×25 cal yr BP. Downcore X-ray fluorescence measurements of selected conservative lithogenic elements (e.g., Al, Si, and Ti) as well as redox-sensitive elements (e.g., Fe and Rb) at 10 mm intervals reveal several periods of elevated abundances related to enhanced atmospheric dust deposition. The co-variations between relative abundances of conservative and redox-sensitive elements as a function of time show significant agreement and attest to the ombrotrophic nature of the entire record. Intervals of enhanced dust deposition inferred from XRF data reveal three short episodes (~ 150-y) at 450-600, 1150-1300, and 1400-1550 cal yr BP, and one prolonged period (500 y) of dust accumulation from 1600 to 2070 cal yr BP. These intervals of high atmospheric dust coincide with historical records of drought and famine in Iran since 2000 BP. Wavelet analysis conducted on the

  13. Methods for detecting change in hydrochemical time series in response to targeted pollutant mitigation in river catchments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lloyd, C. E. M.; Freer, J. E.; Collins, A. L.; Johnes, P. J.; Jones, J. I.

    2014-06-01

    Detecting changes in catchment hydrochemistry driven by targeted pollutant mitigation is high on the scientific agenda, following the introduction of the European Union Water Framework Directive. Previous research has shown that understanding natural variability in hydrochemistry time series is vital if changes due to mitigation are to be detected. In order for change to be detected in a statistically robust manner, the data analysis methods need careful consideration. Previous work has shown that erroneous results have often been obtained when statistical analyses have been carried out despite the associated test assumptions not being met. This paper discusses the principal data issues which must be considered when analysing hydrochemical datasets, including non-normality and non-stationarity. A range of statistical techniques is discussed which could be used to detect gradual or abrupt changes in hydrochemistry, including parametric, non-parametric and signal decomposition methods. The statistical power of these techniques as well as their suitability for identifying change is discussed. Using the uniquely detailed hydrochemical datasets generated under the Demonstration Test Catchments programme in England, the efficacy and robustness of change detection methods for hydrochemical data series is assessed. A conceptual framework for choosing a change detection method is proposed, based on this analysis, in order to raise awareness of the types of questions a researcher should consider in order to perform robust statistical analyses, for informing river catchment management and policy support decisions.

  14. Study of vegetation index selection and changing detection thresholds in land cover change detection assessment using change vector analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nguyen, Duy; Tran, Giang

    2012-07-01

    In recent years, Vietnamese rapidly developing economy has led to speedy changes in land cover. The study of changing detection of land cover plays an important role in making the strategy of the managers. There are two main approaches in changing detection research by using remote sensing and GIS: post- classification change detection analysis approach and pre-classification changing spectral determination approach. Each has their own different advantages and disadvantages. The second one is further divided into: Image Differencing, Multi-date Principal Component Analysis (MPCA); Change Vector Analysis (CVA). In this study, researchers introduce CVA method. This method is based on two important index to show the primary feature of land cover, such as: vegetation index (NDVI-) and barren land index (-BI). Ability to apply methods of CVA has been mentioned in the studies [1, 2, 3, and 4]. However, in these studies did not mention the NDVI index selection and changing detection threshold in changing detection assessment? This paper proposes application to solve these two problems.

  15. Census cities experiment in urban change detection

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wray, J. R. (Principal Investigator)

    1973-01-01

    The author has identified the following significant results. Work continues on mapping of 1970 urban land use from 1970 census contemporaneous aircraft photography. In addition, change detection analysis from 1972 aircraft photography is underway for several urban test sites. Land use maps, mosaics, and census overlays for the two largest urban test sites are nearing publication readiness. Preliminary examinations of ERTS-1 imagery of San Francisco Bay have been conducted which show that tracts of land of more than 10 acres in size which are undergoing development in an urban setting can be identified. In addition, each spectral band is being evaluated as to its utility for urban analyses. It has been found that MSS infrared band 7 helps to differentiate intra-urban land use details not found in other MSS bands or in the RBV coverage of the same scene. Good quality false CIR composites have been generated from 9 x 9 inch positive MSS bands using the Diazo process.

  16. Water quality change detection: multivariate algorithms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klise, Katherine A.; McKenna, Sean A.

    2006-05-01

    In light of growing concern over the safety and security of our nation's drinking water, increased attention has been focused on advanced monitoring of water distribution systems. The key to these advanced monitoring systems lies in the combination of real time data and robust statistical analysis. Currently available data streams from sensors provide near real time information on water quality. Combining these data streams with change detection algorithms, this project aims to develop automated monitoring techniques that will classify real time data and denote anomalous water types. Here, water quality data in 1 hour increments over 3000 hours at 4 locations are used to test multivariate algorithms to detect anomalous water quality events. The algorithms use all available water quality sensors to measure deviation from expected water quality. Simulated anomalous water quality events are added to the measured data to test three approaches to measure this deviation. These approaches include multivariate distance measures to 1) the previous observation, 2) the closest observation in multivariate space, and 3) the closest cluster of previous water quality observations. Clusters are established using kmeans classification. Each approach uses a moving window of previous water quality measurements to classify the current measurement as normal or anomalous. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves test the ability of each approach to discriminate between normal and anomalous water quality using a variety of thresholds and simulated anomalous events. These analyses result in a better understanding of the deviation from normal water quality that is necessary to sound an alarm.

  17. Attribute and topology based change detection in a constellation of previously detected objects

    DOEpatents

    Paglieroni, David W.; Beer, Reginald N.

    2016-01-19

    A system that applies attribute and topology based change detection to networks of objects that were detected on previous scans of a structure, roadway, or area of interest. The attributes capture properties or characteristics of the previously detected objects, such as location, time of detection, size, elongation, orientation, etc. The topology of the network of previously detected objects is maintained in a constellation database that stores attributes of previously detected objects and implicitly captures the geometrical structure of the network. A change detection system detects change by comparing the attributes and topology of new objects detected on the latest scan to the constellation database of previously detected objects.

  18. Anticipating abrupt shifts in temporal evolution of probability of eruption

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rohmer, Jeremy; Loschetter, Annick

    2016-04-01

    Estimating the probability of eruption by jointly accounting for different sources of monitoring parameters over time is a key component for volcano risk management. In the present study, we are interested in the transition from a state of low-to-moderate probability value and to the one of high probability value: the latter value generally supports the call for evacuation. By using the data of MESIMEX exercise at the Vesuvius volcano, we investigated the potential for time-varying indicators related to the correlation structure or to the variability of the probability time series for detecting in advance this critical transition. We found that changes in the power spectra and in the standard deviation estimated over a rolling time window both present an abrupt increase, which marks the approaching shift. Our numerical experiments revealed that the transition from an eruption probability of 10-15% to >70% could be identified up 4 hours in advance, ~2.5 days before the evacuation call (decided for an eruption probability >80% during the MESIMEX exercise). This additional lead time could be useful to place different key services (e.g., emergency services for vulnerable groups, commandeering additional transportation means, etc.) on a higher level of alert before the actual call for evacuation.

  19. Anticipating abrupt shifts in temporal evolution of probability of eruption

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rohmer, J.; Loschetter, A.

    2016-04-01

    Estimating the probability of eruption by jointly accounting for different sources of monitoring parameters over time is a key component for volcano risk management. In the present study, we are interested in the transition from a state of low-to-moderate probability value to a state of high probability value. By using the data of MESIMEX exercise at the Vesuvius volcano, we investigated the potential for time-varying indicators related to the correlation structure or to the variability of the probability time series for detecting in advance this critical transition. We found that changes in the power spectra and in the standard deviation estimated over a rolling time window both present an abrupt increase, which marks the approaching shift. Our numerical experiments revealed that the transition from an eruption probability of 10-15% to > 70% could be identified up to 1-3 h in advance. This additional lead time could be useful to place different key services (e.g., emergency services for vulnerable groups, commandeering additional transportation means, etc.) on a higher level of alert before the actual call for evacuation.

  20. Hydrological response to an abrupt shift in surface air temperature over France in 1987/88

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brulebois, Etienne; Castel, Thierry; Richard, Yves; Chateau-Smith, Carmela; Amiotte-Suchet, Philippe

    2015-12-01

    During the last few decades, Europe has seen a faster increase of observed temperature than that simulated by models. The air temperature over Western Europe showed an abrupt shift at the end of the 1980s, still insufficiently documented. The aim of this study is to assess the characteristics of this shift and its potential impacts on the hydrological cycle over France. Such an assessment is essential for a better understanding of past and future climatic changes and their impact on water resources. A subset of 119 temperature, 122 rainfall, and 30 hydrometric stations was studied, over the entire French metropolitan territory. Several change-point detection tests were applied to temperature, rainfall and runoff time series. A shift in annual mean air temperature was detected in 1987/88, for more than 75% of the stations, and for both minimum and maximum temperatures. An abrupt increase of about 1 °C in minimum and maximum temperature provides evidence of this shift, which shows strong seasonality, with significant increases for DJF, MAM and JJA. Its detection is not affected by the length of the time series or any potential artefacts associated to the conditions of measurement. Cluster analysis of the rainfall stations was used to take account of regional variability in rainfall evolution. Two climate areas were obtained from this analysis: Mediterranean and temperate. No shift was detected in rainfall for either area. However, at annual and quarterly scales, several changes in runoff were observed between the periods 1969-87 and 1988-09. The significant changes occurred from January to July, in agreement with maximum increases in temperature. Evapotranspiration could well play a key role in these changes in the hydrological cycle, as a response to temperature increases in the watersheds studied.

  1. Ensembles of detectors for online detection of transient changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Artemov, Alexey; Burnaev, Evgeny

    2015-12-01

    Classical change-point detection procedures assume a change-point model to be known and a change consisting in establishing a new observations regime, i.e. the change lasts infinitely long. These modeling assumptions contradicts applied problems statements. Therefore, even theoretically optimal statistics in practice very often fail when detecting transient changes online. In this work in order to overcome limitations of classical change-point detection procedures we consider approaches to constructing ensembles of change-point detectors, i.e. algorithms that use many detectors to reliably identify a change-point. We propose a learning paradigm and specific implementations of ensembles for change detection of short-term (transient) changes in observed time series. We demonstrate by means of numerical experiments that the performance of an ensemble is superior to that of the conventional change-point detection procedures.

  2. Color changing photonic crystals detect blast exposure.

    PubMed

    Cullen, D Kacy; Xu, Yongan; Reneer, Dexter V; Browne, Kevin D; Geddes, James W; Yang, Shu; Smith, Douglas H

    2011-01-01

    Blast-induced traumatic brain injury (bTBI) is the "signature wound" of the current wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. However, with no objective information of relative blast exposure, warfighters with bTBI may not receive appropriate medical care and are at risk of being returned to the battlefield. Accordingly, we have created a colorimetric blast injury dosimeter (BID) that exploits material failure of photonic crystals to detect blast exposure. Appearing like a colored sticker, the BID is fabricated in photosensitive polymers via multi-beam interference lithography. Although very stable in the presence of heat, cold or physical impact, sculpted micro- and nano-structures of the BID are physically altered in a precise manner by blast exposure, resulting in color changes that correspond with blast intensity. This approach offers a lightweight, power-free sensor that can be readily interpreted by the naked eye. Importantly, with future refinement this technology may be deployed to identify soldiers exposed to blast at levels suggested to be supra-threshold for non-impact blast-induced mild TBI.

  3. Color changing photonic crystals detect blast exposure

    PubMed Central

    Cullen, D. Kacy; Xu, Yongan; Reneer, Dexter V.; Browne, Kevin D.; Geddes, James W.; Yang, Shu; Smith, Douglas H.

    2010-01-01

    Blast-induced traumatic brain injury (bTBI) is the “signature wound” of the current wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. However, with no objective information of relative blast exposure, warfighters with bTBI may not receive appropriate medical care and are at risk of being returned to the battlefield. Accordingly, we have created a colorimetric blast injury dosimeter (BID) that exploits material failure of photonic crystals to detect blast exposure. Appearing like a colored sticker, the BID is fabricated in photosensitive polymers via multi-beam interference lithography. Although very stable in the presence of heat, cold or physical impact, sculpted micro- and nano-structures of the BID are physically altered in a precise manner by blast exposure, resulting in color changes that correspond with blast intensity. This approach offers a lightweight, power-free sensor that can be readily interpreted by the naked eye. Importantly, with future refinement this technology may be deployed to identify soldiers exposed to blast at levels suggested to be supra-threshold for non-impact blast-induced mild TBI. PMID:21040795

  4. Eye Movements and Display Change Detection during Reading

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Slattery, Timothy J.; Angele, Bernhard; Rayner, Keith

    2011-01-01

    In the boundary change paradigm (Rayner, 1975), when a reader's eyes cross an invisible boundary location, a preview word is replaced by a target word. Readers are generally unaware of such changes due to saccadic suppression. However, some readers detect changes on a few trials and a small percentage of them detect many changes. Two experiments…

  5. Evaluation of change detection techniques for monitoring coastal zone environments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weismiller, R. A.; Kristof, S. J.; Scholz, D. K.; Anuta, P. E.; Momin, S. M.

    1977-01-01

    Development of satisfactory techniques for detecting change in coastal zone environments is required before operational monitoring procedures can be established. In an effort to meet this need a study was directed toward developing and evaluating different types of change detection techniques, based upon computer aided analysis of LANDSAT multispectral scanner (MSS) data, to monitor these environments. The Matagorda Bay estuarine system along the Texas coast was selected as the study area. Four change detection techniques were designed and implemented for evaluation: (1) post classification comparison change detection, (2) delta data change detection, (3) spectral/temporal change classification, and (4) layered spectral/temporal change classification. Each of the four techniques was used to analyze a LANDSAT MSS temporal data set to detect areas of change of the Matagorda Bay region.

  6. Eye movements and display change detection during reading.

    PubMed

    Slattery, Timothy J; Angele, Bernhard; Rayner, Keith

    2011-12-01

    In the boundary change paradigm (Rayner, 1975), when a reader's eyes cross an invisible boundary location, a preview word is replaced by a target word. Readers are generally unaware of such changes due to saccadic suppression. However, some readers detect changes on a few trials and a small percentage of them detect many changes. Two experiments are reported in which we combined eye movement data with signal detection analyses to investigate display change detection. On each trial, readers had to indicate if they saw a display change in addition to reading for meaning. On half the trials the display change occurred during the saccade (immediate condition); on the other half, it was slowed by 15-25 ms (delay condition) to increase the likelihood that a change would be detected. Sentences were presented in an alternating case fashion allowing us to investigate the influence of both letter identity and case. In the immediate condition, change detection was higher when letters changed than when case changed corroborating findings that word processing utilizes abstract (case independent) letter identities. However, in the delay condition (where d' was much higher than the immediate condition), detection was equal for letter and case changes. The results of both experiments indicate that sensitivity to display changes was related to how close the eyes were to the invalid preview on the fixation prior to the display change, as well as the timing of the completion of this change relative to the start of the post-change fixation.

  7. Neural network for change detection of remotely sensed imagery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, C. F.; Chen, Kun S.; Chang, J. S.

    1995-11-01

    The use of a neural network for determining the change of landcover/land-use with remotely sensed data is proposed. In this study, a single image contains both spectral and temporal information is created from a multidate satellite imagery. The proposed change detection method can be divided into two main steps: training data selection and change detection. At the training step, the training set, basically consists of the classes of no-change and possible change data, is obtained from the composited image. Then the training data is used to input the neural network and obtain the network's weights. At the change detection step, the network's weights is employed to detect the change and no-change classes in the combined image. The proposed method is tested using a multidate SPOT imageries and a satisfied change pattern detection is obtained.

  8. Detecting holocene changes in thermohaline circulation.

    PubMed

    Keigwin, L D; Boyle, E A

    2000-02-15

    Throughout the last glacial cycle, reorganizations of deep ocean water masses were coincident with rapid millennial-scale changes in climate. Climate changes have been less severe during the present interglacial, but evidence for concurrent deep ocean circulation change is ambiguous. PMID:10677463

  9. Detecting Holocene changes in thermohaline circulation

    PubMed Central

    Keigwin, L. D.; Boyle, E. A.

    2000-01-01

    Throughout the last glacial cycle, reorganizations of deep ocean water masses were coincident with rapid millennial-scale changes in climate. Climate changes have been less severe during the present interglacial, but evidence for concurrent deep ocean circulation change is ambiguous. PMID:10677463

  10. Detecting holocene changes in thermohaline circulation.

    PubMed

    Keigwin, L D; Boyle, E A

    2000-02-15

    Throughout the last glacial cycle, reorganizations of deep ocean water masses were coincident with rapid millennial-scale changes in climate. Climate changes have been less severe during the present interglacial, but evidence for concurrent deep ocean circulation change is ambiguous.

  11. Change Detection in Naturalistic Pictures among Children with Autism

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burack, Jacob A.; Joseph, Shari; Russo, Natalie; Shore, David I.; Porporino, Mafalda; Enns, James T.

    2009-01-01

    Persons with autism often show strong reactions to changes in the environment, suggesting that they may detect changes more efficiently than typically developing (TD) persons. However, Fletcher-Watson et al. (Br J Psychol 97:537-554, 2006) reported no differences between adults with autism and TD adults with a change-detection task. In this study,…

  12. Change detection on a hunch: pre-attentive vision allows "sensing" of unique feature changes.

    PubMed

    Ball, Felix; Busch, Niko A

    2015-11-01

    Studies on change detection and change blindness have investigated the nature of visual representations by testing the conditions under which observers are able to detect when an object in a complex scene changes from one moment to the next. Several authors have proposed that change detection can occur without identification of the changing object, but the perceptual processes underlying this phenomenon are currently unknown. We hypothesized that change detection without localization or identification occurs when the change happens outside the focus of attention. Such changes would usually go entirely unnoticed, unless the change brings about a modification of one of the feature maps representing the scene. Thus, the appearance or disappearance of a unique feature might be registered even in the absence of focused attention and without feature binding, allowing for change detection, but not localization or identification. We tested this hypothesis in three experiments, in which changes either involved colors that were already present elsewhere in the display or entirely unique colors. Observers detected whether any change had occurred and then localized or identified the change. Change detection without localization occurred almost exclusively when changes involved a unique color. Moreover, change detection without localization for unique feature changes was independent of the number of objects in the display and independent of change identification. These findings suggest that pre-attentive registration of a change on a feature map can give rise to a conscious experience even when feature binding has failed: that something has changed without knowing what or where. PMID:26353860

  13. Change detection on a hunch: pre-attentive vision allows "sensing" of unique feature changes.

    PubMed

    Ball, Felix; Busch, Niko A

    2015-11-01

    Studies on change detection and change blindness have investigated the nature of visual representations by testing the conditions under which observers are able to detect when an object in a complex scene changes from one moment to the next. Several authors have proposed that change detection can occur without identification of the changing object, but the perceptual processes underlying this phenomenon are currently unknown. We hypothesized that change detection without localization or identification occurs when the change happens outside the focus of attention. Such changes would usually go entirely unnoticed, unless the change brings about a modification of one of the feature maps representing the scene. Thus, the appearance or disappearance of a unique feature might be registered even in the absence of focused attention and without feature binding, allowing for change detection, but not localization or identification. We tested this hypothesis in three experiments, in which changes either involved colors that were already present elsewhere in the display or entirely unique colors. Observers detected whether any change had occurred and then localized or identified the change. Change detection without localization occurred almost exclusively when changes involved a unique color. Moreover, change detection without localization for unique feature changes was independent of the number of objects in the display and independent of change identification. These findings suggest that pre-attentive registration of a change on a feature map can give rise to a conscious experience even when feature binding has failed: that something has changed without knowing what or where.

  14. Is a pre-change object representation weakened under correct detection of a change?

    PubMed

    Yeh, Yei-Yu; Yang, Cheng-Ta

    2009-03-01

    We investigated whether a pre-change representation is inhibited or weakened under correct change detection. Two arrays of six objects were rapidly presented for change detection in three experiments. After detection, the perceptual identification of degraded stimuli was tested in Experiments 1 and 2. The weakening of a pre-change representation was not observed under correct detection. The repetition priming effect was observed for a pre-change object and the magnitude was equivalent to the effect for a post-change object. Under change blindness, repetition priming for a pre-change representation was observed when detection did not require report of location in Experiment 1 and was not observed when location was required to be reported in Experiment 2. The results of Experiment 3 showed that a pre-change representation was recognized at a higher rate under correct detection than under change blindness, reflecting a stronger rather than a weaker pre-change representation in the former context.

  15. Occupancy change detection system and method

    DOEpatents

    Bruemmer, David J [Idaho Falls, ID; Few, Douglas A [Idaho Falls, ID

    2009-09-01

    A robot platform includes perceptors, locomotors, and a system controller. The system controller executes instructions for producing an occupancy grid map of an environment around the robot, scanning the environment to generate a current obstacle map relative to a current robot position, and converting the current obstacle map to a current occupancy grid map. The instructions also include processing each grid cell in the occupancy grid map. Within the processing of each grid cell, the instructions include comparing each grid cell in the occupancy grid map to a corresponding grid cell in the current occupancy grid map. For grid cells with a difference, the instructions include defining a change vector for each changed grid cell, wherein the change vector includes a direction from the robot to the changed grid cell and a range from the robot to the changed grid cell.

  16. Detecting Temporal Change in Watershed Nutrient Yields

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wickham, James D.; Wade, Timothy G.; Riitters, Kurt H.

    2008-08-01

    Meta-analyses reveal that nutrient yields tend to be higher for watersheds dominated by anthropogenic uses (e.g., urban, agriculture) and lower for watersheds dominated by natural vegetation. One implication of this pattern is that loss of natural vegetation will produce increases in watershed nutrient yields. Yet, the same meta-analyses also reveal that, absent land-cover change, watershed nutrient yields vary from one year to the next due to many exogenous factors. The interacting effects of land cover and exogenous factors suggest nutrient yields should be treated as distributions, and the effect of land-cover change should be examined by looking for significant changes in the distributions. We compiled nutrient yield distributions from published data. The published data included watersheds with homogeneous land cover that typically reported two or more years of annual nutrient yields for the same watershed. These data were used to construct statistical models, and the models were used to estimate changes in the nutrient yield distributions as a result of land-cover change. Land-cover changes were derived from the National Land Cover Database (NLCD). Total nitrogen (TN) yield distributions increased significantly for 35 of 1550 watersheds and decreased significantly for 51. Total phosphorus (TP) yield distributions increased significantly for 142 watersheds and decreased significantly for 17. The amount of land-cover change required to produce significant shifts in nutrient yield distributions was not constant. Small land-cover changes led to significant shifts in nutrient yield distributions when watersheds were dominated by natural vegetation, whereas much larger land-cover changes were needed to produce significant shifts when watersheds were dominated by urban or agriculture. We discuss our results in the context of the Clean Water Act.

  17. Detecting temporal change in watershed nutrient yields.

    PubMed

    Wickham, James D; Wade, Timothy G; Riitters, Kurt H

    2008-08-01

    Meta-analyses reveal that nutrient yields tend to be higher for watersheds dominated by anthropogenic uses (e.g., urban, agriculture) and lower for watersheds dominated by natural vegetation. One implication of this pattern is that loss of natural vegetation will produce increases in watershed nutrient yields. Yet, the same meta-analyses also reveal that, absent land-cover change, watershed nutrient yields vary from one year to the next due to many exogenous factors. The interacting effects of land cover and exogenous factors suggest nutrient yields should be treated as distributions, and the effect of land-cover change should be examined by looking for significant changes in the distributions. We compiled nutrient yield distributions from published data. The published data included watersheds with homogeneous land cover that typically reported two or more years of annual nutrient yields for the same watershed. These data were used to construct statistical models, and the models were used to estimate changes in the nutrient yield distributions as a result of land-cover change. Land-cover changes were derived from the National Land Cover Database (NLCD). Total nitrogen (TN) yield distributions increased significantly for 35 of 1550 watersheds and decreased significantly for 51. Total phosphorus (TP) yield distributions increased significantly for 142 watersheds and decreased significantly for 17. The amount of land-cover change required to produce significant shifts in nutrient yield distributions was not constant. Small land-cover changes led to significant shifts in nutrient yield distributions when watersheds were dominated by natural vegetation, whereas much larger land-cover changes were needed to produce significant shifts when watersheds were dominated by urban or agriculture. We discuss our results in the context of the Clean Water Act. PMID:18446405

  18. A Dual-Process Account of Auditory Change Detection

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McAnally, Ken I.; Martin, Russell L.; Eramudugolla, Ranmalee; Stuart, Geoffrey W.; Irvine, Dexter R. F.; Mattingley, Jason B.

    2010-01-01

    Listeners can be "deaf" to a substantial change in a scene comprising multiple auditory objects unless their attention has been directed to the changed object. It is unclear whether auditory change detection relies on identification of the objects in pre- and post-change scenes. We compared the rates at which listeners correctly identify changed…

  19. Automatic change detection in time series of Synthetic Aperture Radar data using a scale-driven approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ajadi, O. A.; Meyer, F. J.

    2013-12-01

    Automatic change detection and change classification from Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images is a difficult task mostly due to the high level of speckle noise inherent to SAR data and the highly non-Gaussian nature of the SAR amplitude information. Several approaches were developed in recent years to deal with SAR specific change detection problems from image pairs and time series of images. Despite these considerable efforts, no satisfying solution to this problem has been found so far. In this paper we present a promising new algorithm for change detection from SAR that is based on a multi-scale analysis of a times series of SAR images. Our approach is composed of three steps, including (1) data enhancement and filtering, (2) multi-scale change detection, and (3) time-series analysis of change detection maps. In the data enhancement and filtering step, we first form time-series of ratio images by dividing all SAR images by a reference acquisition to suppress stationary image information and enhance change signatures. Several methods for reference image selection will be discussed in the paper. The generated ratio images are further log-transformed to create near-Gaussian data and to convert the originally multiplicative noise into additive noise. A subsequent fast non-local mean filter is applied to reduce image noise whilst preserving most of the image details. The filtered log-ratio images are then inserted into a multi-scale change detection algorithm that is composed of: (1) a multi-scale decomposition of the input images using a two-dimensional discrete stationary wavelet transform (2D-SWT); (2) a multi-resolution classification into 'change' and 'no-change' areas; and (3) a scale-driven fusion of the classification results. In a final time-series analysis step the multi-temporal change detection maps are analyzed to identify seasonal, gradual, and abrupt changes. The performance of the developed approach will be demonstrated by application to the

  20. Change detection for objects on surfaces slanted in depth.

    PubMed

    Ozkan, Kerem; Braunstein, Myron L

    2010-09-15

    Change detection for objects associated with a surface extended in depth might be more difficult than for a frontal surface if it is easier to shift attention within a frontal surface. On the other hand, previous research has shown that ground surfaces have a special role in organizing the 3-D layout of objects shown against scene backgrounds. In the current study, we examined whether a frontal background or a ground surface background would result in superior change detection performance using a change detection flicker paradigm. In the first experiment, we considered whether background slant affects change detection performance. In Experiment 2, we examined the effect of height in the image on change detection performance. In Experiment 3, we examined change detection performance on slanted ceiling surfaces. The results of these experiments indicate that change detection is more efficient on near-ground planes than on surfaces at intermediate slants or ceiling surfaces. This suggests that any superiority of frontal plane backgrounds in a change detection task may be equivalent to the superiority of a near-ground plane in organizing a scene, with the lowest level of performance occurring for surfaces that are not frontal but further from a ground surface orientation.

  1. Detection of ocean color changes from high altitudes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hovis, W. A.; Forman, M. L.; Blaine, L. R.

    1973-01-01

    The detection of ocean color changes, thought to be due to chlorophyll concentrations and gelbstoffe variations, is attempted from high altitude (11.3km) and low altitude (0.3km). The atmospheric back scattering is shown to reduce contrast, but not sufficiently to obscure color change detection at high altitudes.

  2. Change magnitude does not guide attention in an object change detection task.

    PubMed

    Favelle, Simone K; Palmisano, Stephen

    2015-01-01

    Investigations of change detection consistently reveal an effect of change magnitude: changes involving more object parts are detected more easily than those involving fewer parts. Whether large changes improve detection by providing stronger preattentive signals to the change location is subject to debate. We report a cued object change detection experiment that tested this hypothesis while controlling for stimulus familiarity, semantic knowledge, and change type (addition versus deletion). We found strong magnitude effects regardless of whether trials were validly or invalidly cued. The size of the cueing effects, which were exhibited for all the change magnitudes examined, did not decrease with the number of parts changing. These findings provide little support for a preattentive guidance hypothesis and instead support the thesis that change detection requires attention.

  3. Comparing Several Algorithms for Change Detection of Wetland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yan, F.; Zhang, S.; Chang, L.

    2015-12-01

    As "the kidneys of the landscape" and "ecological supermarkets", wetland plays an important role in ecological equilibrium and environmental protection.Therefore, it is of great significance to understand the dynamic changes of the wetland. Nowadays, many index and many methods have been used in dynamic Monitoring of Wetland. However, there are no single method and no single index are adapted to detect dynamic change of wetland all over the world. In this paper, three digital change detection algorithms are applied to 2005 and 2010 Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) images of a portion of the Northeast China to detect wetland dynamic between the two dates. The change vector analysis method (CVA) uses 6 bands of TM images to detect wetland dynamic. The tassled cap transformation is used to create three change images (change in brightness, greenness, and wetness). A new method--- Comprehensive Change Detection Method (CCDM) is introduced to detect forest dynamic change. The CCDM integrates spectral-based change detection algorithms including a Multi-Index Integrated Change Analysis (MIICA) model and a novel change model called Zone, which extracts change information from two Landsat image pairs. The MIICA model is the core module of the change detection strategy and uses four spectral indices (differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR), differenced Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (dNDVI), the Change Vector (CV) and a new index called the Relative Change Vector Maximum (RCVMAX)) to obtain the changes that occurred between two image dates. The CCDM also includes a knowledge-based system, which uses critical information on historical and current land cover conditions and trends and the likelihood of land cover change, to combine the changes from MIICA and Zone. Related test proved that CCDM method is simple, easy to operate, widely applicable, and capable of capturing a variety of natural and anthropogenic disturbances potentially associated with land cover changes on

  4. Synthetic circuit for exact adaptation and fold-change detection.

    PubMed

    Kim, Jongmin; Khetarpal, Ishan; Sen, Shaunak; Murray, Richard M

    2014-05-01

    Biological organisms use their sensory systems to detect changes in their environment. The ability of sensory systems to adapt to static inputs allows wide dynamic range as well as sensitivity to input changes including fold-change detection, a response that depends only on fold changes in input, and not on absolute changes. This input scale invariance underlies an important strategy for search that depends solely on the spatial profile of the input. Synthetic efforts to reproduce the architecture and response of cellular circuits provide an important step to foster understanding at the molecular level. We report the bottom-up assembly of biochemical systems that show exact adaptation and fold-change detection. Using a malachite green aptamer as the output, a synthetic transcriptional circuit with the connectivity of an incoherent feed-forward loop motif exhibits pulse generation and exact adaptation. A simple mathematical model was used to assess the amplitude and duration of pulse response as well as the parameter regimes required for fold-change detection. Upon parameter tuning, this synthetic circuit exhibits fold-change detection for four successive rounds of two-fold input changes. The experimental realization of fold-change detection circuit highlights the programmability of transcriptional switches and the ability to obtain predictive dynamical systems in a cell-free environment for technological applications.

  5. Simulation framework for spatio-spectral anomalous change detection

    SciTech Connect

    Theiler, James P; Harvey, Neal R; Porter, Reid B; Wohlberg, Brendt E

    2009-01-01

    The authors describe the development of a simulation framework for anomalous change detection that considers both the spatial and spectral aspects of the imagery. A purely spectral framework has previously been introduced, but the extension to spatio-spectral requires attention to a variety of new issues, and requires more careful modeling of the anomalous changes. Using this extended framework, they evaluate the utility of spatial image processing operators to enhance change detection sensitivity in (simulated) remote sensing imagery.

  6. A network of superconducting gravimeters detects submicrogal coseismic gravity changes.

    PubMed

    Imanishi, Yuichi; Sato, Tadahiro; Higashi, Toshihiro; Sun, Wenke; Okubo, Shuhei

    2004-10-15

    With high-resolution continuous gravity recordings from a regional network of superconducting gravimeters, we have detected permanent changes in gravity acceleration associated with a recent large earthquake. Detected changes in gravity acceleration are smaller than 10(-8) meters seconds(-2) (1 micro-Galileo, about 10(-9) times the surface gravity acceleration) and agree with theoretical values calculated from a dislocation model. Superconducting gravimetry can contribute to the studies of secular gravity changes associated with tectonic processes.

  7. One new method for road data shape change detection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, Luliang; Li, Qingquan; Xu, Feng; Chang, Xiaomeng

    2009-10-01

    Similarity is a psychological cognition; this paper defines the Difference Distance and puts forward the Similarity Measuring Model for linear spatial data (SMM-L) based on the integration of the Distance View and the Feature Set View which are the views for similarity cognition. Based on the study of the relationship between the spatial data change and the similarity, a change detection algorithm for linear spatial data is developed, and a test on road data change detection is realized.

  8. Abruptness of Cascade Failures in Power Grids

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pahwa, Sakshi; Scoglio, Caterina; Scala, Antonio

    2014-01-01

    Electric power-systems are one of the most important critical infrastructures. In recent years, they have been exposed to extreme stress due to the increasing demand, the introduction of distributed renewable energy sources, and the development of extensive interconnections. We investigate the phenomenon of abrupt breakdown of an electric power-system under two scenarios: load growth (mimicking the ever-increasing customer demand) and power fluctuations (mimicking the effects of renewable sources). Our results on real, realistic and synthetic networks indicate that increasing the system size causes breakdowns to become more abrupt; in fact, mapping the system to a solvable statistical-physics model indicates the occurrence of a first order transition in the large size limit. Such an enhancement for the systemic risk failures (black-outs) with increasing network size is an effect that should be considered in the current projects aiming to integrate national power-grids into ``super-grids''.

  9. Abruptness of Cascade Failures in Power Grids

    PubMed Central

    Pahwa, Sakshi; Scoglio, Caterina; Scala, Antonio

    2014-01-01

    Electric power-systems are one of the most important critical infrastructures. In recent years, they have been exposed to extreme stress due to the increasing demand, the introduction of distributed renewable energy sources, and the development of extensive interconnections. We investigate the phenomenon of abrupt breakdown of an electric power-system under two scenarios: load growth (mimicking the ever-increasing customer demand) and power fluctuations (mimicking the effects of renewable sources). Our results on real, realistic and synthetic networks indicate that increasing the system size causes breakdowns to become more abrupt; in fact, mapping the system to a solvable statistical-physics model indicates the occurrence of a first order transition in the large size limit. Such an enhancement for the systemic risk failures (black-outs) with increasing network size is an effect that should be considered in the current projects aiming to integrate national power-grids into “super-grids”. PMID:24424239

  10. Abruptness of cascade failures in power grids.

    PubMed

    Pahwa, Sakshi; Scoglio, Caterina; Scala, Antonio

    2014-01-01

    Electric power-systems are one of the most important critical infrastructures. In recent years, they have been exposed to extreme stress due to the increasing demand, the introduction of distributed renewable energy sources, and the development of extensive interconnections. We investigate the phenomenon of abrupt breakdown of an electric power-system under two scenarios: load growth (mimicking the ever-increasing customer demand) and power fluctuations (mimicking the effects of renewable sources). Our results on real, realistic and synthetic networks indicate that increasing the system size causes breakdowns to become more abrupt; in fact, mapping the system to a solvable statistical-physics model indicates the occurrence of a first order transition in the large size limit. Such an enhancement for the systemic risk failures (black-outs) with increasing network size is an effect that should be considered in the current projects aiming to integrate national power-grids into "super-grids". PMID:24424239

  11. Abrupt percolation in small equilibrated networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matsoukas, Themis

    2015-05-01

    Networks can exhibit an abrupt transition in the form of a spontaneous self-organization of a sizable fraction of the population into a giant component of connected members. This behavior has been demonstrated in random graphs under suppressive rules that passively or actively attempt to delay the formation of the giant cluster. We show that suppressive rules are not a necessary condition for a sharp transition at the percolation threshold. Rather, a finite system with aggressive tendency to form a giant cluster may exhibit an instability at the percolation threshold that is relieved through an abrupt and discontinuous transition to the stable branch. We develop the theory for a class of equilibrated networks that produce this behavior and find that the discontinuous jump is especially pronounced in small networks but disappears when the size of the system is infinite.

  12. Abruptness of cascade failures in power grids.

    PubMed

    Pahwa, Sakshi; Scoglio, Caterina; Scala, Antonio

    2014-01-15

    Electric power-systems are one of the most important critical infrastructures. In recent years, they have been exposed to extreme stress due to the increasing demand, the introduction of distributed renewable energy sources, and the development of extensive interconnections. We investigate the phenomenon of abrupt breakdown of an electric power-system under two scenarios: load growth (mimicking the ever-increasing customer demand) and power fluctuations (mimicking the effects of renewable sources). Our results on real, realistic and synthetic networks indicate that increasing the system size causes breakdowns to become more abrupt; in fact, mapping the system to a solvable statistical-physics model indicates the occurrence of a first order transition in the large size limit. Such an enhancement for the systemic risk failures (black-outs) with increasing network size is an effect that should be considered in the current projects aiming to integrate national power-grids into "super-grids".

  13. The Nature of Change Detection and Online Representations of Scenes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ryan,J ennifer D.; Cohen, Neal J.

    2004-01-01

    This article provides evidence for implicit change detection and for the contribution of multiple memory sources to online representations. Multiple eye-movement measures distinguished original from changed scenes, even when college students had no conscious awareness for the change. Patients with amnesia showed a systematic deficit on 1 class of…

  14. Improved change detection with local co-registration adjustments

    SciTech Connect

    Wohlberg, Brendt E; Theiler, James P

    2009-01-01

    We introduce a simple approach for compensating for residual misregistration error on the performance of anomalous change detection algorithms. Using real data with a simulation framework for anomalous change and with a real anomalous change, we illustrate the approach and investigate its effectiveness.

  15. Land Cover Change Detection Using Saliency Andwavelet Transformation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Haopeng; Jiang, Zhiguo; Cheng, Yan

    2016-06-01

    How to obtain accurate difference map remains an open challenge in change detection. To tackle this problem, we propose a change detection method based on saliency detection and wavelet transformation. We do frequency-tuned saliency detection in initial difference image (IDI) obtained by logarithm ratio to get a salient difference image (SDI). Then, we calculate local entropy of SDI to obtain an entropic salient difference image (ESDI). The final difference image (FDI) is the wavelet fusion of IDI and ESDI, and Otsu thresholding is used to extract difference map from FDI. Experimental results validate the effectiveness and feasibility.

  16. Detecting data and schema changes in scientific documents

    SciTech Connect

    Adiwijaya, I; Critchlow, T; Musick, R

    1999-06-08

    Data stored in a data warehouse must be kept consistent and up-to-date with the underlying information sources. By providing the capability to identify, categorize and detect changes in these sources, only the modified data needs to be transferred and entered into the warehouse. Another alternative, periodically reloading from scratch, is obviously inefficient. When the schema of an information source changes, all components that interact with, or make use of, data originating from that source must be updated to conform to the new schema. In this paper, the authors present an approach to detecting data and schema changes in scientific documents. Scientific data is of particular interest because it is normally stored as semi-structured documents, and it incurs frequent schema updates. They address the change detection problem by detecting data and schema changes between two versions of the same semi-structured document. This paper presents a graph representation of semi-structured documents and their schema before describing their approach to detecting changes while parsing the document. It also discusses how analysis of a collection of schema changes obtained from comparing several individual can be used to detect complex schema changes.

  17. Relative Saliency in Change Signals Affects Perceptual Comparison and Decision Processes in Change Detection

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yang, Cheng-Ta

    2011-01-01

    Change detection requires perceptual comparison and decision processes on different features of multiattribute objects. How relative salience between two feature-changes influences the processes has not been addressed. This study used the systems factorial technology to investigate the processes when detecting changes in a Gabor patch with visual…

  18. Compact bending sensor based on a fiber Bragg grating in an abrupt biconical taper.

    PubMed

    Cui, Wei; Si, Jinhai; Chen, Tao; Hou, Xun

    2015-05-01

    We propose and experimentally demonstrate a compact bending sensor. The head of the sensor is only 0.8 mm in length, and consists of an abrupt biconical fiber taper formed using a conventional fusion splicer, in which a fiber Bragg grating (FBG) is inscribed using a femtosecond laser. The biconical taper incorporating the FBG can couple light from the cladding to the backward-propagating core mode, which realizes an interferometer in reflection-mode. Bending of the structure can be detected from the contrast change of interference fringes. A configuration to measure curvature is investigated to demonstrate the sensing characteristics. The temperature cross-sensitivity of the sensor is studied, and the results demonstrate that it is insensitive to temperature. PMID:25969198

  19. Detection of light transformations and concomitant changes in surface albedo

    PubMed Central

    Gerhard, Holly E.; Maloney, Laurence T.

    2010-01-01

    We report two experiments demonstrating that (1) observers are sensitive to information about changes in the light field not captured by local scene statistics and that (2) they can use this information to enhance detection of changes in surface albedo. Observers viewed scenes consisting of matte surfaces at many orientations illuminated by a collimated light source. All surfaces were achromatic, all lights neutral. In the first experiment, observers attempted to discriminate small changes in direction of the collimated light source (light transformations) from matched changes in the albedos of all surfaces (non-light transformations). Light changes and non-light changes shared the same local scene statistics and edge ratios, but the latter were not consistent with any change in direction to the collimated source. We found that observers could discriminate light changes as small as 5 degrees with sensitivity d′ > 1 and accurately judge the direction of change. In a second experiment, we measured observers' ability to detect a change in the surface albedo of an isolated surface patch during either a light change or a surface change. Observers were more accurate in detecting isolated albedo changes during light changes. Measures of sensitivity d′ were more than twice as great. PMID:20884599

  20. Gradual onset and recovery of the Younger Dryas abrupt climate event in the tropics

    PubMed Central

    Partin, J.W.; Quinn, T.M.; Shen, C.-C.; Okumura, Y.; Cardenas, M.B.; Siringan, F.P.; Banner, J.L.; Lin, K.; Hu, H.-M.; Taylor, F.W.

    2015-01-01

    Proxy records of temperature from the Atlantic clearly show that the Younger Dryas was an abrupt climate change event during the last deglaciation, but records of hydroclimate are underutilized in defining the event. Here we combine a new hydroclimate record from Palawan, Philippines, in the tropical Pacific, with previously published records to highlight a difference between hydroclimate and temperature responses to the Younger Dryas. Although the onset and termination are synchronous across the records, tropical hydroclimate changes are more gradual (>100 years) than the abrupt (10–100 years) temperature changes in the northern Atlantic Ocean. The abrupt recovery of Greenland temperatures likely reflects changes in regional sea ice extent. Proxy data and transient climate model simulations support the hypothesis that freshwater forced a reduction in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, thereby causing the Younger Dryas. However, changes in ocean overturning may not produce the same effects globally as in Greenland. PMID:26329911

  1. Gradual onset and recovery of the Younger Dryas abrupt climate event in the tropics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Partin, J. W.; Quinn, T. M.; Shen, C.-C.; Okumura, Y.; Cardenas, M. B.; Siringan, F. P.; Banner, J. L.; Lin, K.; Hu, H.-M.; Taylor, F. W.

    2015-09-01

    Proxy records of temperature from the Atlantic clearly show that the Younger Dryas was an abrupt climate change event during the last deglaciation, but records of hydroclimate are underutilized in defining the event. Here we combine a new hydroclimate record from Palawan, Philippines, in the tropical Pacific, with previously published records to highlight a difference between hydroclimate and temperature responses to the Younger Dryas. Although the onset and termination are synchronous across the records, tropical hydroclimate changes are more gradual (>100 years) than the abrupt (10-100 years) temperature changes in the northern Atlantic Ocean. The abrupt recovery of Greenland temperatures likely reflects changes in regional sea ice extent. Proxy data and transient climate model simulations support the hypothesis that freshwater forced a reduction in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, thereby causing the Younger Dryas. However, changes in ocean overturning may not produce the same effects globally as in Greenland.

  2. Gradual onset and recovery of the Younger Dryas abrupt climate event in the tropics.

    PubMed

    Partin, J W; Quinn, T M; Shen, C-C; Okumura, Y; Cardenas, M B; Siringan, F P; Banner, J L; Lin, K; Hu, H-M; Taylor, F W

    2015-09-02

    Proxy records of temperature from the Atlantic clearly show that the Younger Dryas was an abrupt climate change event during the last deglaciation, but records of hydroclimate are underutilized in defining the event. Here we combine a new hydroclimate record from Palawan, Philippines, in the tropical Pacific, with previously published records to highlight a difference between hydroclimate and temperature responses to the Younger Dryas. Although the onset and termination are synchronous across the records, tropical hydroclimate changes are more gradual (>100 years) than the abrupt (10-100 years) temperature changes in the northern Atlantic Ocean. The abrupt recovery of Greenland temperatures likely reflects changes in regional sea ice extent. Proxy data and transient climate model simulations support the hypothesis that freshwater forced a reduction in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, thereby causing the Younger Dryas. However, changes in ocean overturning may not produce the same effects globally as in Greenland.

  3. New evidence from the South China Sea for an abrupt termination of the last glacial period

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Broecker, W. S.; Klas, M.; Andree, M.; Bonani, G.; Wolfli, W.

    1988-01-01

    Results demonstrating an abrupt change in the rate and character of sedimentation in the South China Sea at the close of the last glacial period are presented. Radiocarbon dating and its position in the oxygen isotope shift suggest that this change may be coincident with the abrupt change in climatic conditions seen at high latitudes in the North Atlantic and the Antarctic at 13 kyr BP. These results support the contention that a major global climatic change occurred between 14 and 13 kyr BP.

  4. Detection and Attribution of Regional Climate Change

    SciTech Connect

    Bala, G; Mirin, A

    2007-01-19

    We developed a high resolution global coupled modeling capability to perform breakthrough studies of the regional climate change. The atmospheric component in our simulation uses a 1{sup o} latitude x 1.25{sup o} longitude grid which is the finest resolution ever used for the NCAR coupled climate model CCSM3. Substantial testing and slight retuning was required to get an acceptable control simulation. The major accomplishment is the validation of this new high resolution configuration of CCSM3. There are major improvements in our simulation of the surface wind stress and sea ice thickness distribution in the Arctic. Surface wind stress and ocean circulation in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current are also improved. Our results demonstrate that the FV version of the CCSM coupled model is a state of the art climate model whose simulation capabilities are in the class of those used for IPCC assessments. We have also provided 1000 years of model data to Scripps Institution of Oceanography to estimate the natural variability of stream flow in California. In the future, our global model simulations will provide boundary data to high-resolution mesoscale model that will be used at LLNL. The mesoscale model would dynamically downscale the GCM climate to regional scale on climate time scales.

  5. Classification of change detection and change blindness from near-infrared spectroscopy signals.

    PubMed

    Tanaka, Hirokazu; Katura, Takusige

    2011-08-01

    Using a machine-learning classification algorithm applied to near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) signals, we classify a success (change detection) or a failure (change blindness) in detecting visual changes for a change-detection task. Five subjects perform a change-detection task, and their brain activities are continuously monitored. A support-vector-machine algorithm is applied to classify the change-detection and change-blindness trials, and correct classification probability of 70-90% is obtained for four subjects. Two types of temporal shapes in classification probabilities are found: one exhibiting a maximum value after the task is completed (postdictive type), and another exhibiting a maximum value during the task (predictive type). As for the postdictive type, the classification probability begins to increase immediately after the task completion and reaches its maximum in about the time scale of neuronal hemodynamic response, reflecting a subjective report of change detection. As for the predictive type, the classification probability shows an increase at the task initiation and is maximal while subjects are performing the task, predicting the task performance in detecting a change. We conclude that decoding change detection and change blindness from NIRS signal is possible and argue some future applications toward brain-machine interfaces.

  6. Classification of change detection and change blindness from near-infrared spectroscopy signals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tanaka, Hirokazu; Katura, Takusige

    2011-08-01

    Using a machine-learning classification algorithm applied to near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) signals, we classify a success (change detection) or a failure (change blindness) in detecting visual changes for a change-detection task. Five subjects perform a change-detection task, and their brain activities are continuously monitored. A support-vector-machine algorithm is applied to classify the change-detection and change-blindness trials, and correct classification probability of 70-90% is obtained for four subjects. Two types of temporal shapes in classification probabilities are found: one exhibiting a maximum value after the task is completed (postdictive type), and another exhibiting a maximum value during the task (predictive type). As for the postdictive type, the classification probability begins to increase immediately after the task completion and reaches its maximum in about the time scale of neuronal hemodynamic response, reflecting a subjective report of change detection. As for the predictive type, the classification probability shows an increase at the task initiation and is maximal while subjects are performing the task, predicting the task performance in detecting a change. We conclude that decoding change detection and change blindness from NIRS signal is possible and argue some future applications toward brain-machine interfaces.

  7. Detection of Greenhouse-Gas-Induced Climatic Change

    SciTech Connect

    Jones, P.D.; Wigley, T.M.L.

    1998-05-26

    The objective of this report is to assemble and analyze instrumental climate data and to develop and apply climate models as a basis for (1) detecting greenhouse-gas-induced climatic change, and (2) validation of General Circulation Models.

  8. Fast Change Point Detection for Electricity Market Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Berkeley, UC; Gu, William; Choi, Jaesik; Gu, Ming; Simon, Horst; Wu, Kesheng

    2013-08-25

    Electricity is a vital part of our daily life; therefore it is important to avoid irregularities such as the California Electricity Crisis of 2000 and 2001. In this work, we seek to predict anomalies using advanced machine learning algorithms. These algorithms are effective, but computationally expensive, especially if we plan to apply them on hourly electricity market data covering a number of years. To address this challenge, we significantly accelerate the computation of the Gaussian Process (GP) for time series data. In the context of a Change Point Detection (CPD) algorithm, we reduce its computational complexity from O($n^{5}$) to O($n^{2}$). Our efficient algorithm makes it possible to compute the Change Points using the hourly price data from the California Electricity Crisis. By comparing the detected Change Points with known events, we show that the Change Point Detection algorithm is indeed effective in detecting signals preceding major events.

  9. Theoretical basis for predicting climate-induced abrupt shifts in the oceans

    PubMed Central

    Beaugrand, Gregory

    2015-01-01

    Among the responses of marine species and their ecosystems to climate change, abrupt community shifts (ACSs), also called regime shifts, have often been observed. However, despite their effects for ecosystem functioning and both provisioning and regulating services, our understanding of the underlying mechanisms involved remains elusive. This paper proposes a theory showing that some ACSs originate from the interaction between climate-induced environmental changes and the species ecological niche. The theory predicts that a substantial stepwise shift in the thermal regime of a marine ecosystem leads indubitably to an ACS and explains why some species do not change during the phenomenon. It also explicates why the timing of ACSs may differ or why some studies may detect or not detect a shift in the same ecosystem, independently of the statistical method of detection and simply because they focus on different species or taxonomic groups. The present theory offers a way to predict future climate-induced community shifts and their potential associated trophic cascades and amplifications.

  10. Electrophysiological evidence for different types of change detection and change blindness.

    PubMed

    Busch, Niko A; Fründ, Ingo; Herrmann, Christoph S

    2010-08-01

    Numerous studies have demonstrated that observers often fail to notice large changes in visual scenes, a phenomenon known as change blindness. Some experiments have suggested that phenomenological experience in change blindness experiments is more diverse than the common distinction between change detection and change blindness allows to resolve. Recently, it has been debated whether changes in visual scenes can be detected ("sensed") without a corresponding perception of the changing object ("seeing") and whether these phenomena build on fundamentally different perceptual processes. The present study investigated whether phenomenologically different perceptual processes such as sensing and seeing rely on different or similar neural processes. We studied ERP effects of visual change processing (as compared to change blindness) when observers merely detected the presence of a change ("sensing") and when they identified the changing object in addition to detection ("seeing"). Although the visual awareness negativity (VAN)/selection negativity was similar for detection with and without identification, a change-related positivity and the N2pc contralateral to changes were found exclusively when the change was fully identified. This finding indicates that change identification requires perceptual and neural processes that are not involved in mere detection. In a second experiment, we demonstrated that the VAN and N2pc effects are similar to effects of selective attention in a visual search task. By contrast, the change-related positivity was specific for conscious processing of visual changes. The results suggest that changes can be detected ("sensed") without perception of the changing object. Furthermore, sensing and seeing seem to rely on different neural processes and seem to constitute different types of visual perception. These findings bear implications for how different categories of visual awareness are related to different stages in visual processing.

  11. Vegetation cover change detection in Chamela-Cuixamala, Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De la Barreda Bautista, Betsabé; López-Caloca, Alejandra A.

    2009-09-01

    In Mexico, and everywhere else, the ecosystems are constantly changing either by natural factors or anthropogenic activity. Remote sensing has been a key tool to monitoring these changes throughout history and also to understanding the ecological dynamics. Hence, sustainable development plans have been created in order to improve the decisionmaking process; thus, this paper analyses deforestation impact in a very important natural resourcing area in Mexico, considering land cover changes. The study area is located in the coast of Jalisco, Mexico, where deforestation and fragmentation as well as high speed touristic development have been the causes of enormous biodiversity losses; the Chamela-Cuixamala Biosphere Reserve is located within this area. It has great species richness and vast endemism. The exploitation of this biome is widespread all over the country and it has already had an impact in the reserve. The change detection multi-temporal study uses Landsat satellite imagery during the 1970-2003 time period. Thus, the objective of change detection analysis is to detect and localize environmental changes through time. The change detection method consists in producing an image of change likelihood (by post-classification, multivariate alteration detection) and thresholding it in order to produce the change map. Experimental results confirmed that the patterns of land use and land cover changes have increased significantly over the last decade. This study also analyzes the deforestation impact on biodiversity. The analysis validation was carried out using field and statistic data. Spatial-temporal changing range enables the analysis of the structural and dynamic effects on the ecosystem and it enhances better decision-making and public environmental policies to decrease or eliminate deforestation, the creation of natural protected areas as a biodiversity conservation method, and counteracting the global warming phenomena.

  12. A Hopfield neural network for image change detection.

    PubMed

    Pajares, Gonzalo

    2006-09-01

    This paper outlines an optimization relaxation approach based on the analog Hopfield neural network (HNN) for solving the image change detection problem between two images. A difference image is obtained by subtracting pixel by pixel both images. The network topology is built so that each pixel in the difference image is a node in the network. Each node is characterized by its state, which determines if a pixel has changed. An energy function is derived, so that the network converges to stable states. The analog Hopfield's model allows each node to take on analog state values. Unlike most widely used approaches, where binary labels (changed/unchanged) are assigned to each pixel, the analog property provides the strength of the change. The main contribution of this paper is reflected in the customization of the analog Hopfield neural network to derive an automatic image change detection approach. When a pixel is being processed, some existing image change detection procedures consider only interpixel relations on its neighborhood. The main drawback of such approaches is the labeling of this pixel as changed or unchanged according to the information supplied by its neighbors, where its own information is ignored. The Hopfield model overcomes this drawback and for each pixel allows a tradeoff between the influence of its neighborhood and its own criterion. This is mapped under the energy function to be minimized. The performance of the proposed method is illustrated by comparative analysis against some existing image change detection methods.

  13. A Hopfield neural network for image change detection.

    PubMed

    Pajares, Gonzalo

    2006-09-01

    This paper outlines an optimization relaxation approach based on the analog Hopfield neural network (HNN) for solving the image change detection problem between two images. A difference image is obtained by subtracting pixel by pixel both images. The network topology is built so that each pixel in the difference image is a node in the network. Each node is characterized by its state, which determines if a pixel has changed. An energy function is derived, so that the network converges to stable states. The analog Hopfield's model allows each node to take on analog state values. Unlike most widely used approaches, where binary labels (changed/unchanged) are assigned to each pixel, the analog property provides the strength of the change. The main contribution of this paper is reflected in the customization of the analog Hopfield neural network to derive an automatic image change detection approach. When a pixel is being processed, some existing image change detection procedures consider only interpixel relations on its neighborhood. The main drawback of such approaches is the labeling of this pixel as changed or unchanged according to the information supplied by its neighbors, where its own information is ignored. The Hopfield model overcomes this drawback and for each pixel allows a tradeoff between the influence of its neighborhood and its own criterion. This is mapped under the energy function to be minimized. The performance of the proposed method is illustrated by comparative analysis against some existing image change detection methods. PMID:17001985

  14. Detection of Changes on and below the Surface in Epithelium Mucosal Tissue Structure using Scattered Light

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taslidere, Ezgi

    The aim of this work is to answer the question of whether it is possible to detect changes on and below the surface in epithelium tissue structure using light reflected from the tissue over an area (2-D scan) illuminated by an optical sensor (fiber) emitting light at either one wavelength or with white light. Towards that end we model the 2-D reflected scans using a Stochastic Decomposition Method (SDM). The emphasis in this work is on the novelty of the proposed model and its theoretical pinning and foundation. The model is biologically motivated by the stochastic textural nature of the tissue. We model the textural content (which relates to tissue morphology) that manifests itself in the 2-D scans. Unlike previous works that analyze the scattered signal at one spot at various wavelengths, our method statistically analyzes 2-D scans of light scattering data over an area, and extracts from the data features (SDM parameters) that change with changes in the tissue morphology. The examination of an area rather than a spot not only leads to a more reliable calculation of the extracted parameters using single techniques (e.g. nuclear size distribution), but it also leads to the computation of additional information embedded in the spatial texture that our decomposition technique arrives at by modeling the hidden correlations that are obtained only by interrogating a wide sample area. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt at modeling the scattered light over an area using a stochastic decomposition model that allows for the assessment of correlation and textural characteristics that otherwise could not be revealed when the analysis of the scattering signal is a function of wavelength or angle. We also come up with a segmentation technique to raise a flag on the fly when a transition occurs between different mucosal architectures on the surface. The segmentation is based on a novel difference metric for detecting an abrupt change in the parameters

  15. Automated baseline change detection phase I. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    1995-12-01

    The Automated Baseline Change Detection (ABCD) project is supported by the DOE Morgantown Energy Technology Center (METC) as part of its ER&WM cross-cutting technology program in robotics. Phase 1 of the Automated Baseline Change Detection project is summarized in this topical report. The primary objective of this project is to apply robotic and optical sensor technology to the operational inspection of mixed toxic and radioactive waste stored in barrels, using Automated Baseline Change Detection (ABCD), based on image subtraction. Absolute change detection is based on detecting any visible physical changes, regardless of cause, between a current inspection image of a barrel and an archived baseline image of the same barrel. Thus, in addition to rust, the ABCD system can also detect corrosion, leaks, dents, and bulges. The ABCD approach and method rely on precise camera positioning and repositioning relative to the barrel and on feature recognition in images. In support of this primary objective, there are secondary objectives to determine DOE operational inspection requirements and DOE system fielding requirements.

  16. Evaluating coverage changes in national parks using a hybrid change detection algorithm and remote sensing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghofrani, Zahra; Mokhtarzade, Mehdi; Reza Sahebi, Mahmod; Beykikhoshk, Adham

    2014-01-01

    Remote sensing is a useful tool for detecting change over time. We introduce a hybrid change-detection method for forest and protected-area vegetation and demonstrate its use with two satellite images of Golestan National Park in northern Iran (1998 and 2010). We report on the advantages and disadvantages of the hybrid method relative to the standard change-detection method. In the proposed hybrid algorithm, the change vector analysis technique was used to determine changes in vegetation. Following this, we used postclassification comparison to determine the nature of the changes observed and their accuracy and to evaluate the effects of different parameters on the performance of the proposed method. We determined 85% accuracy for the proposed hybrid change-detection method, thus demonstrating a method for discovering and assessing environmental threats to natural treasures.

  17. Detection and Attribution of Anthropogenic Climate Change Impacts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Neofotis, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Human-influenced climate change is an observed phenomenon affecting physical and biological systems across the globe. The majority of observed impacts are related to temperature changes and are located in the northern high- and midlatitudes. However, new evidence is emerging that demonstrates that impacts are related to precipitation changes as well as temperature, and that climate change is impacting systems and sectors beyond the Northern Hemisphere. In this paper, we highlight some of this new evidence-focusing on regions and sectors that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) noted as under-represented-in the context of observed climate change impacts, direct and indirect drivers of change (including carbon dioxide itself), and methods of detection. We also present methods and studies attributing observed impacts to anthropogenic forcing. We argue that the expansion of methods of detection (in terms of a broader array of climate variables and data sources, inclusion of the major modes of climate variability, and incorporation of other drivers of change) is key to discerning the climate sensitivities of sectors and systems in regions where the impacts of climate change currently remain elusive. Attributing such changes to human forcing of the climate system, where possible, is important for development of effective mitigation and adaptation. Current challenges in documenting adaptation and the role of indigenous knowledge in detection and attribution are described.

  18. Statistically normalized coherent change detection for synthetic aperture sonar imagery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    G-Michael, Tesfaye; Tucker, J. D.; Roberts, Rodney G.

    2016-05-01

    Coherent Change Detection (CCD) is a process of highlighting an area of activity in scenes (seafloor) under survey and generated from pairs of synthetic aperture sonar (SAS) images of approximately the same location observed at two different time instances. The problem of CCD and subsequent anomaly feature extraction/detection is complicated due to several factors such as the presence of random speckle pattern in the images, changing environmental conditions, and platform instabilities. These complications make the detection of weak target activities even more difficult. Typically, the degree of similarity between two images measured at each pixel locations is the coherence between the complex pixel values in the two images. Higher coherence indicates little change in the scene represented by the pixel and lower coherence indicates change activity in the scene. Such coherence estimation scheme based on the pixel intensity correlation is an ad-hoc procedure where the effectiveness of the change detection is determined by the choice of threshold which can lead to high false alarm rates. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for anomalous change pattern detection using the statistical normalized coherence and multi-pass coherent processing. This method may be used to mitigate shadows by reducing the false alarms resulting in the coherent map due to speckles and shadows. Test results of the proposed methods on a data set of SAS images will be presented, illustrating the effectiveness of the normalized coherence in terms statistics from multi-pass survey of the same scene.

  19. A novel video dataset for change detection benchmarking.

    PubMed

    Goyette, Nil; Jodoin, Pierre-Marc; Porikli, Fatih; Konrad, Janusz; Ishwar, Prakash

    2014-11-01

    Change detection is one of the most commonly encountered low-level tasks in computer vision and video processing. A plethora of algorithms have been developed to date, yet no widely accepted, realistic, large-scale video data set exists for benchmarking different methods. Presented here is a unique change detection video data set consisting of nearly 90 000 frames in 31 video sequences representing six categories selected to cover a wide range of challenges in two modalities (color and thermal infrared). A distinguishing characteristic of this benchmark video data set is that each frame is meticulously annotated by hand for ground-truth foreground, background, and shadow area boundaries-an effort that goes much beyond a simple binary label denoting the presence of change. This enables objective and precise quantitative comparison and ranking of video-based change detection algorithms. This paper discusses various aspects of the new data set, quantitative performance metrics used, and comparative results for over two dozen change detection algorithms. It draws important conclusions on solved and remaining issues in change detection, and describes future challenges for the scientific community. The data set, evaluation tools, and algorithm rankings are available to the public on a website and will be updated with feedback from academia and industry in the future.

  20. Neural dynamics of change detection in crowded acoustic scenes.

    PubMed

    Sohoglu, Ediz; Chait, Maria

    2016-02-01

    Two key questions concerning change detection in crowded acoustic environments are the extent to which cortical processing is specialized for different forms of acoustic change and when in the time-course of cortical processing neural activity becomes predictive of behavioral outcomes. Here, we address these issues by using magnetoencephalography (MEG) to probe the cortical dynamics of change detection in ongoing acoustic scenes containing as many as ten concurrent sources. Each source was formed of a sequence of tone pips with a unique carrier frequency and temporal modulation pattern, designed to mimic the spectrotemporal structure of natural sounds. Our results show that listeners are more accurate and quicker to detect the appearance (than disappearance) of an auditory source in the ongoing scene. Underpinning this behavioral asymmetry are change-evoked responses differing not only in magnitude and latency, but also in their spatial patterns. We find that even the earliest (~50 ms) cortical response to change is predictive of behavioral outcomes (detection times), consistent with the hypothesized role of local neural transients in supporting change detection.

  1. Unsupervised Change Detection in SAR Images Using Gaussian Mixture Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kiana, E.; Homayouni, S.; Sharifi, M. A.; Farid-Rohani, M.

    2015-12-01

    In this paper, we propose a method for unsupervised change detection in Remote Sensing Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images. This method is based on the mixture modelling of the histogram of difference image. In this process, the difference image is classified into three classes; negative change class, positive change class and no change class. However the SAR images suffer from speckle noise, the proposed method is able to map the changes without speckle filtering. To evaluate the performance of this method, two dates of SAR data acquired by Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Synthetic from an agriculture area are used. Change detection results show better efficiency when compared to the state-of-the-art methods.

  2. Short-term change detection for UAV video

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saur, Günter; Krüger, Wolfgang

    2012-11-01

    In the last years, there has been an increased use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) for video reconnaissance and surveillance. An important application in this context is change detection in UAV video data. Here we address short-term change detection, in which the time between observations ranges from several minutes to a few hours. We distinguish this task from video motion detection (shorter time scale) and from long-term change detection, based on time series of still images taken between several days, weeks, or even years. Examples for relevant changes we are looking for are recently parked or moved vehicles. As a pre-requisite, a precise image-to-image registration is needed. Images are selected on the basis of the geo-coordinates of the sensor's footprint and with respect to a certain minimal overlap. The automatic imagebased fine-registration adjusts the image pair to a common geometry by using a robust matching approach to handle outliers. The change detection algorithm has to distinguish between relevant and non-relevant changes. Examples for non-relevant changes are stereo disparity at 3D structures of the scene, changed length of shadows, and compression or transmission artifacts. To detect changes in image pairs we analyzed image differencing, local image correlation, and a transformation-based approach (multivariate alteration detection). As input we used color and gradient magnitude images. To cope with local misalignment of image structures we extended the approaches by a local neighborhood search. The algorithms are applied to several examples covering both urban and rural scenes. The local neighborhood search in combination with intensity and gradient magnitude differencing clearly improved the results. Extended image differencing performed better than both the correlation based approach and the multivariate alternation detection. The algorithms are adapted to be used in semi-automatic workflows for the ABUL video exploitation system of Fraunhofer

  3. PCA feature extraction for change detection in multidimensional unlabeled data.

    PubMed

    Kuncheva, Ludmila I; Faithfull, William J

    2014-01-01

    When classifiers are deployed in real-world applications, it is assumed that the distribution of the incoming data matches the distribution of the data used to train the classifier. This assumption is often incorrect, which necessitates some form of change detection or adaptive classification. While there has been a lot of work on change detection based on the classification error monitored over the course of the operation of the classifier, finding changes in multidimensional unlabeled data is still a challenge. Here, we propose to apply principal component analysis (PCA) for feature extraction prior to the change detection. Supported by a theoretical example, we argue that the components with the lowest variance should be retained as the extracted features because they are more likely to be affected by a change. We chose a recently proposed semiparametric log-likelihood change detection criterion that is sensitive to changes in both mean and variance of the multidimensional distribution. An experiment with 35 datasets and an illustration with a simple video segmentation demonstrate the advantage of using extracted features compared to raw data. Further analysis shows that feature extraction through PCA is beneficial, specifically for data with multiple balanced classes.

  4. No evidence for an item limit in change detection.

    PubMed

    Keshvari, Shaiyan; van den Berg, Ronald; Ma, Wei Ji

    2013-01-01

    Change detection is a classic paradigm that has been used for decades to argue that working memory can hold no more than a fixed number of items ("item-limit models"). Recent findings force us to consider the alternative view that working memory is limited by the precision in stimulus encoding, with mean precision decreasing with increasing set size ("continuous-resource models"). Most previous studies that used the change detection paradigm have ignored effects of limited encoding precision by using highly discriminable stimuli and only large changes. We conducted two change detection experiments (orientation and color) in which change magnitudes were drawn from a wide range, including small changes. In a rigorous comparison of five models, we found no evidence of an item limit. Instead, human change detection performance was best explained by a continuous-resource model in which encoding precision is variable across items and trials even at a given set size. This model accounts for comparison errors in a principled, probabilistic manner. Our findings sharply challenge the theoretical basis for most neural studies of working memory capacity.

  5. Change detection in very high resolution multisensor optical images

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Solano Correa, Yady T.; Bovolo, Francesca; Bruzzone, Lorenzo

    2014-10-01

    This work aims at developing an approach to the detection of changes in multisensor multitemporal VHR optical images. The main steps of the proposed method are: i) multisensor data homogenization; and ii) change detection in multisensor multitemporal VHR optical images. The proposed approach takes advantage of: the conversion to physical quantities suggested by Pacifici et. al.1 , the framework for the design of systems for change detection in VHR images presented by Bruzzone and Bovolo2 and the framework for unsupervised change detection presented by Bovolo and Bruzzone3. Multisensor data homogenization is achieved during pre-processing by taking into account differences in both radiometric and geometric dimensions. Whereas change detection was approached by extracting proper features from multisensor images such that they result to be comparable (at a given level of abstraction) even if extracted from images acquired by different sensors. In order to illustrate the results, a data set made up of a QuickBird and a WorldView-2 images - acquired in 2006 and 2010 respectively - over an area located in the Trentino region of Italy were used. However, the proposed approach is thought to be exportable to multitemporal images coming from passive sensors other than the two mentioned above. The experimental results obtained on the QuickBird and WorlView-2 image pair are accurate. Thus opening to further experiments on multitemporal images acquired by other sensors.

  6. Online change detection: Monitoring land cover from remotely sensed data

    SciTech Connect

    Fang, Yi; Ganguly, Auroop R; Singh, Nagendra; Vijayaraj, Veeraraghavan; Feierabend, Robert Neal; Potere, David T

    2006-01-01

    We present a fast and statistically principled approach to land cover change detection. A reference statistical distribution is fitted to prior data based on off-line analysis, and an adaptive metric based on the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) of normal scores derived from p-values are tracked for new or streaming data, leading to alarms for large or sustained change. Methods which can track the origin of the change are also discussed. The approach is illustrated with a geographic application which involves monitoring remotely sensed data to detect changes in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in near real-time. We use Wal-Mart store openings as a nontraditional way to monitor and validate known cases of NDVI change. The proposed approach performs well on this validation dataset.

  7. Context sensitivity in the detection of changes in facial emotion

    PubMed Central

    Yamashita, Yuichi; Fujimura, Tomomi; Katahira, Kentaro; Honda, Manabu; Okada, Masato; Okanoya, Kazuo

    2016-01-01

    In social contexts, reading subtle changes in others’ facial expressions is a crucial communication skill. To measure this ability, we developed an expression-change detection task, wherein a series of pictures of changes in an individual’s facial expressions within contextual scenes were presented. The results demonstrated that the detection of subtle changes was highly sensitive to contextual stimuli. That is, participants identified the direction of facial-expression changes more accurately and more quickly when they were ‘appropriate’—consistent with the valence of the contextual stimulus change—than when they were ‘inappropriate’. Moreover, individual differences in sensitivity to contextual stimuli were correlated with scores on the Toronto Alexithymia Scale, a commonly used measure of alexithymia tendencies. These results suggest that the current behavioural task might facilitate investigations of the role of context in human social cognition. PMID:27291099

  8. Abrupt formation of isolated superconducting droplets in heavily disordered cuprates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naqib, S. H.; Islam, R. S.

    2011-10-01

    The effect of controlled disorder on the superconducting transition temperature, Tc, resistivity, and the magnitude of the field-cooled ac susceptibility (ACS) has been investigated for Ca and Zn substituted Y123 (Y0.80Ca0.20Ba2(Cu1 - yZny)3O7 - δ) sintered compounds over a wide range of compositions. Ca was used to explore the overdoped side. The in-plane hole content, p, was changed by varying the oxygen deficiency (δ). Irrespective of the hole content, Tc decreased almost linearly with Zn, though the rate of suppression was strongly p dependent. The magnitude of the low-field, field-cooled ACS, on the other hand, decreased abruptly and significantly for the heavily disordered (y > 0.05) sintered compounds when p was decreased. More strikingly, the qualitative features of the field dependent ACS signal became identical for sintered and powdered samples, indicating a complete absence of coupling among superconducting grains in heavily disordered Y0.80Ca0.20Ba2(Cu1 - yZny)3O7 - δ. A non-monotonic and pronounced enhancement of the residual resistivity for samples with y > 0.05 lends further support to this picture. The abruptness of this 'isolated superconducting droplet' behavior points toward possible interplay among various length scales. We discuss the implications of these findings in detail in this paper.

  9. Towards a Framework for Change Detection in Data Sets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Böttcher, Mirko; Nauck, Detlef; Ruta, Dymitr; Spott, Martin

    Since the world with its markets, innovations and customers is changing faster than ever before, the key to survival for businesses is the ability to detect, assess and respond to changing conditions rapidly and intelligently. Discovering changes and reacting to or acting upon them before others do has therefore become a strategical issue for many companies. However, existing data analysis techniques are insufflent for this task since they typically assume that the domain under consideration is stable over time. This paper presents a framework that detects changes within a data set at virtually any level of granularity. The underlying idea is to derive a rule-based description of the data set at different points in time and to subsequently analyse how these rules change. Nevertheless, further techniques are required to assist the data analyst in interpreting and assessing their changes. Therefore the framework also contains methods to discard rules that are non-drivers for change and to assess the interestingness of detected changes.

  10. An Investigation of Automatic Change Detection for Topographic Map Updating

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duncan, P.; Smit, J.

    2012-08-01

    Changes to the landscape are constantly occurring and it is essential for geospatial and mapping organisations that these changes are regularly detected and captured, so that map databases can be updated to reflect the current status of the landscape. The Chief Directorate of National Geospatial Information (CD: NGI), South Africa's national mapping agency, currently relies on manual methods of detecting changes and capturing these changes. These manual methods are time consuming and labour intensive, and rely on the skills and interpretation of the operator. It is therefore necessary to move towards more automated methods in the production process at CD: NGI. The aim of this research is to do an investigation into a methodology for automatic or semi-automatic change detection for the purpose of updating topographic databases. The method investigated for detecting changes is through image classification as well as spatial analysis and is focussed on urban landscapes. The major data input into this study is high resolution aerial imagery and existing topographic vector data. Initial results indicate the traditional pixel-based image classification approaches are unsatisfactory for large scale land-use mapping and that object-orientated approaches hold more promise. Even in the instance of object-oriented image classification generalization of techniques on a broad-scale has provided inconsistent results. A solution may lie with a hybrid approach of pixel and object-oriented techniques.

  11. Extended image differencing for change detection in UAV video mosaics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saur, Günter; Krüger, Wolfgang; Schumann, Arne

    2014-03-01

    Change detection is one of the most important tasks when using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) for video reconnaissance and surveillance. We address changes of short time scale, i.e. the observations are taken in time distances from several minutes up to a few hours. Each observation is a short video sequence acquired by the UAV in near-nadir view and the relevant changes are, e.g., recently parked or moved vehicles. In this paper we extend our previous approach of image differencing for single video frames to video mosaics. A precise image-to-image registration combined with a robust matching approach is needed to stitch the video frames to a mosaic. Additionally, this matching algorithm is applied to mosaic pairs in order to align them to a common geometry. The resulting registered video mosaic pairs are the input of the change detection procedure based on extended image differencing. A change mask is generated by an adaptive threshold applied to a linear combination of difference images of intensity and gradient magnitude. The change detection algorithm has to distinguish between relevant and non-relevant changes. Examples for non-relevant changes are stereo disparity at 3D structures of the scene, changed size of shadows, and compression or transmission artifacts. The special effects of video mosaicking such as geometric distortions and artifacts at moving objects have to be considered, too. In our experiments we analyze the influence of these effects on the change detection results by considering several scenes. The results show that for video mosaics this task is more difficult than for single video frames. Therefore, we extended the image registration by estimating an elastic transformation using a thin plate spline approach. The results for mosaics are comparable to that of single video frames and are useful for interactive image exploitation due to a larger scene coverage.

  12. Abrupt climate shift in the Western Mediterranean Sea

    PubMed Central

    Schroeder, K.; Chiggiato, J.; Bryden, H. L.; Borghini, M.; Ben Ismail, S.

    2016-01-01

    One century of oceanographic measurements has evidenced gradual increases in temperature and salinity of western Mediterranean water masses, even though the vertical stratification has basically remained unchanged. Starting in 2005, the basic structure of the intermediate and deep layers abruptly changed. We report here evidence of reinforced thermohaline variability in the deep western basin with significant dense water formation events producing large amounts of warmer, saltier and denser water masses than ever before. We provide a detailed chronological order to these changes, giving an overview of the new water masses and following their route from the central basin interior to the east (toward the Tyrrhenian) and toward the Atlantic Ocean. As a consequence of this climate shift, new deep waters outflowing through Gibraltar will impact the North Atlantic in terms of salt and heat input. In addition, modifications in the Mediterranean abyssal ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles are to be expected. PMID:26965790

  13. Abrupt climate shift in the Western Mediterranean Sea.

    PubMed

    Schroeder, K; Chiggiato, J; Bryden, H L; Borghini, M; Ben Ismail, S

    2016-01-01

    One century of oceanographic measurements has evidenced gradual increases in temperature and salinity of western Mediterranean water masses, even though the vertical stratification has basically remained unchanged. Starting in 2005, the basic structure of the intermediate and deep layers abruptly changed. We report here evidence of reinforced thermohaline variability in the deep western basin with significant dense water formation events producing large amounts of warmer, saltier and denser water masses than ever before. We provide a detailed chronological order to these changes, giving an overview of the new water masses and following their route from the central basin interior to the east (toward the Tyrrhenian) and toward the Atlantic Ocean. As a consequence of this climate shift, new deep waters outflowing through Gibraltar will impact the North Atlantic in terms of salt and heat input. In addition, modifications in the Mediterranean abyssal ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles are to be expected. PMID:26965790

  14. Abrupt climate shift in the Western Mediterranean Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schroeder, K.; Chiggiato, J.; Bryden, H. L.; Borghini, M.; Ben Ismail, S.

    2016-03-01

    One century of oceanographic measurements has evidenced gradual increases in temperature and salinity of western Mediterranean water masses, even though the vertical stratification has basically remained unchanged. Starting in 2005, the basic structure of the intermediate and deep layers abruptly changed. We report here evidence of reinforced thermohaline variability in the deep western basin with significant dense water formation events producing large amounts of warmer, saltier and denser water masses than ever before. We provide a detailed chronological order to these changes, giving an overview of the new water masses and following their route from the central basin interior to the east (toward the Tyrrhenian) and toward the Atlantic Ocean. As a consequence of this climate shift, new deep waters outflowing through Gibraltar will impact the North Atlantic in terms of salt and heat input. In addition, modifications in the Mediterranean abyssal ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles are to be expected.

  15. A new maximum-likelihood change estimator for two-pass SAR coherent change detection

    DOE PAGES

    Wahl, Daniel E.; Yocky, David A.; Jakowatz, Jr., Charles V.; Simonson, Katherine Mary

    2016-01-11

    In past research, two-pass repeat-geometry synthetic aperture radar (SAR) coherent change detection (CCD) predominantly utilized the sample degree of coherence as a measure of the temporal change occurring between two complex-valued image collects. Previous coherence-based CCD approaches tend to show temporal change when there is none in areas of the image that have a low clutter-to-noise power ratio. Instead of employing the sample coherence magnitude as a change metric, in this paper, we derive a new maximum-likelihood (ML) temporal change estimate—the complex reflectance change detection (CRCD) metric to be used for SAR coherent temporal change detection. The new CRCD estimatormore » is a surprisingly simple expression, easy to implement, and optimal in the ML sense. As a result, this new estimate produces improved results in the coherent pair collects that we have tested.« less

  16. Folded Compact Range Development and Coherent Change Detection Measurement Project

    SciTech Connect

    Sorensen, K.W.

    1995-03-01

    A novel, folded compact range configuration has been developed at the Sandia National Laboratories compact range antenna and radar cross section measurement facility, operated by the Radar/Antenna Department 2343, as a means of performing indoor, environmentally-controlled, far-field simulations of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) coherent change detection (CCD) measurements. This report describes the development of the folded compact range configuration, as well as the initial set of coherent change detection measurements made with the system. These measurements have been highly successful, and have demonstrated the viability of the folded compact range concept in simulating SAR CCD measurements. It is felt that follow-on measurements have the potential of contributing significantly to the body of knowledge available to the scientific community involved in CCD image generation and processing, and that this tool will be a significant aid in the research and development of change detection methodologies.

  17. Detecting regional patterns of changing CO2 flux in Alaska

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parazoo, Nicholas C.; Commane, Roisin; Wofsy, Steven C.; Koven, Charles D.; Sweeney, Colm; Lawrence, David M.; Lindaas, Jakob; Chang, Rachel Y.-W.; Miller, Charles E.

    2016-07-01

    With rapid changes in climate and the seasonal amplitude of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the Arctic, it is critical that we detect and quantify the underlying processes controlling the changing amplitude of CO2 to better predict carbon cycle feedbacks in the Arctic climate system. We use satellite and airborne observations of atmospheric CO2 with climatically forced CO2 flux simulations to assess the detectability of Alaskan carbon cycle signals as future warming evolves. We find that current satellite remote sensing technologies can detect changing uptake accurately during the growing season but lack sufficient cold season coverage and near-surface sensitivity to constrain annual carbon balance changes at regional scale. Airborne strategies that target regular vertical profile measurements within continental interiors are more sensitive to regional flux deeper into the cold season but currently lack sufficient spatial coverage throughout the entire cold season. Thus, the current CO2 observing network is unlikely to detect potentially large CO2 sources associated with deep permafrost thaw and cold season respiration expected over the next 50 y. Although continuity of current observations is vital, strategies and technologies focused on cold season measurements (active remote sensing, aircraft, and tall towers) and systematic sampling of vertical profiles across continental interiors over the full annual cycle are required to detect the onset of carbon release from thawing permafrost.

  18. Detecting regional patterns of changing CO2 flux in Alaska.

    PubMed

    Parazoo, Nicholas C; Commane, Roisin; Wofsy, Steven C; Koven, Charles D; Sweeney, Colm; Lawrence, David M; Lindaas, Jakob; Chang, Rachel Y-W; Miller, Charles E

    2016-07-12

    With rapid changes in climate and the seasonal amplitude of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the Arctic, it is critical that we detect and quantify the underlying processes controlling the changing amplitude of CO2 to better predict carbon cycle feedbacks in the Arctic climate system. We use satellite and airborne observations of atmospheric CO2 with climatically forced CO2 flux simulations to assess the detectability of Alaskan carbon cycle signals as future warming evolves. We find that current satellite remote sensing technologies can detect changing uptake accurately during the growing season but lack sufficient cold season coverage and near-surface sensitivity to constrain annual carbon balance changes at regional scale. Airborne strategies that target regular vertical profile measurements within continental interiors are more sensitive to regional flux deeper into the cold season but currently lack sufficient spatial coverage throughout the entire cold season. Thus, the current CO2 observing network is unlikely to detect potentially large CO2 sources associated with deep permafrost thaw and cold season respiration expected over the next 50 y. Although continuity of current observations is vital, strategies and technologies focused on cold season measurements (active remote sensing, aircraft, and tall towers) and systematic sampling of vertical profiles across continental interiors over the full annual cycle are required to detect the onset of carbon release from thawing permafrost. PMID:27354511

  19. Data-driven techniques for detecting dynamical state changes in noisily measured 3D single-molecule trajectories.

    PubMed

    Calderon, Christopher P

    2014-01-01

    Optical microscopes and nanoscale probes (AFM, optical tweezers, etc.) afford researchers tools capable of quantitatively exploring how molecules interact with one another in live cells. The analysis of in vivo single-molecule experimental data faces numerous challenges due to the complex, crowded, and time changing environments associated with live cells. Fluctuations and spatially varying systematic forces experienced by molecules change over time; these changes are obscured by "measurement noise" introduced by the experimental probe monitoring the system. In this article, we demonstrate how the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Switching Linear Dynamical System (HDP-SLDS) of Fox et al. [IEEE Transactions on Signal Processing 59] can be used to detect both subtle and abrupt state changes in time series containing "thermal" and "measurement" noise. The approach accounts for temporal dependencies induced by random and "systematic overdamped" forces. The technique does not require one to subjectively select the number of "hidden states" underlying a trajectory in an a priori fashion. The number of hidden states is simultaneously inferred along with change points and parameters characterizing molecular motion in a data-driven fashion. We use large scale simulations to study and compare the new approach to state-of-the-art Hidden Markov Modeling techniques. Simulations mimicking single particle tracking (SPT) experiments are the focus of this study. PMID:25397733

  20. Data-driven techniques for detecting dynamical state changes in noisily measured 3D single-molecule trajectories.

    PubMed

    Calderon, Christopher P

    2014-01-01

    Optical microscopes and nanoscale probes (AFM, optical tweezers, etc.) afford researchers tools capable of quantitatively exploring how molecules interact with one another in live cells. The analysis of in vivo single-molecule experimental data faces numerous challenges due to the complex, crowded, and time changing environments associated with live cells. Fluctuations and spatially varying systematic forces experienced by molecules change over time; these changes are obscured by "measurement noise" introduced by the experimental probe monitoring the system. In this article, we demonstrate how the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Switching Linear Dynamical System (HDP-SLDS) of Fox et al. [IEEE Transactions on Signal Processing 59] can be used to detect both subtle and abrupt state changes in time series containing "thermal" and "measurement" noise. The approach accounts for temporal dependencies induced by random and "systematic overdamped" forces. The technique does not require one to subjectively select the number of "hidden states" underlying a trajectory in an a priori fashion. The number of hidden states is simultaneously inferred along with change points and parameters characterizing molecular motion in a data-driven fashion. We use large scale simulations to study and compare the new approach to state-of-the-art Hidden Markov Modeling techniques. Simulations mimicking single particle tracking (SPT) experiments are the focus of this study.

  1. Optical and SAR data integration for automatic change pattern detection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mishra, B.; Susaki, J.

    2014-09-01

    Automatic change pattern mapping in urban and sub-urban area is important but challenging due to the diversity of urban land use pattern. With multi-sensor imagery, it is possible to generate multidimensional unique information of Earth surface features that allow developing a relationship between a response of each feature to synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and optical sensors to track the change automatically. Thus, a SAR and optical data integration framework for change detection and a relationship for automatic change pattern detection were developed. It was carried out in three steps: (i) Computation of indicators from SAR and optical images, namely: normalized difference ratio (NDR) from multi-temporal SAR images and the normalized difference vegetation index difference (NDVI) from multi-temporal optical images, (ii) computing the change magnitude image from NDR and ΔNDVI and delineating the change area and (iii) the development of an empirical relationship, for automatic change pattern detection. The experiment was carried out in an outskirts part of Ho Chi Minh City, one of the fastest growing cities in the world. The empirical relationship between the response of surface feature to optical and SAR imagery has successfully delineated six changed classes in a very complex urban sprawl area that was otherwise impossible with multi-spectral imagery. The improvement of the change detection results by making use of the unique information on both sensors, optical and SAR, is also noticeable with a visual inspection and the kappa index was increased by 0.13 (0.75 to 0.88) in comparison to only optical images.

  2. Real-time change detection for countering improvised explosive devices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van de Wouw, Dennis W. J. M.; van Rens, Kris; van Lint, Hugo; Jaspers, Egbert G. T.; de With, Peter H. N.

    2014-03-01

    We explore an automatic real-time change detection system to assist military personnel during transport and surveillance, by detection changes in the environment with respect to a previous operation. Such changes may indicate the presence of Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs), which can then be bypassed. While driving, images of the scenes are acquired by the camera and stored with their GPS positions. At the same time, the best matching reference image (from a previous patrol) is retrieved and registered to the live image. Next a change mask is generated by differencing the reference and live image, followed by an adaptive thresholding technique. Post-processing steps such as Markov Random Fields, local texture comparisons and change tracking, further improve time- and space-consistency of changes and suppress noise. The resulting changes are visualized as an overlay on the live video content. The system has been extensively tested on 28 videos, containing over 10,000 manually annotated objects. The system is capable of detecting small test objects of 10 cm3 at a range of 40 meters. Although the system shows an acceptable performance in multiple cases, the performance degrades under certain circumstances for which extensions are discussed.

  3. Scene change detection for video retrieval on MPEG streams

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kang, Eung-Kwan; Kim, Sung-Joo; Jahng, SurngGabb; Song, Ho-Keun; Choi, Jong S.

    2000-05-01

    IN this paper, we propose a new scene change detection (SCD) algorithm, and also provide a novel video-indexing scheme for fast content-based browsing and retrieval in video databases. We detect scene changes from the MPEG video sequence, and extract key frames to represent contents of a shot. Then, we perform the video indexing by applying the rosette pattern to the extracted key frames, and retrieve them. Our SCD method is better than the conventional ones in terms of the SCD performance. Moreover, by applying the rosette pattern for indexing, we can remarkably reduce the number of pixels required to index and excellently retrieve the video scene.

  4. Landsat change detection can aid in water quality monitoring

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Macdonald, H. C.; Steele, K. F.; Waite, W. P.; Shinn, M. R.

    1977-01-01

    Comparison between Landsat-1 and -2 imagery of Arkansas provided evidence of significant land use changes during the 1972-75 time period. Analysis of Arkansas historical water quality information has shown conclusively that whereas point source pollution generally can be detected by use of water quality data collected by state and federal agencies, sampling methodologies for nonpoint source contamination attributable to surface runoff are totally inadequate. The expensive undertaking of monitoring all nonpoint sources for numerous watersheds can be lessened by implementing Landsat change detection analyses.

  5. Using adversary text to detect adversary phase changes.

    SciTech Connect

    Speed, Ann Elizabeth; Doser, Adele Beatrice; Warrender, Christina E.

    2009-05-01

    The purpose of this work was to help develop a research roadmap and small proof ofconcept for addressing key problems and gaps from the perspective of using text analysis methods as a primary tool for detecting when a group is undergoing a phase change. Self- rganizing map (SOM) techniques were used to analyze text data obtained from the tworld-wide web. Statistical studies indicate that it may be possible to predict phase changes, as well as detect whether or not an example of writing can be attributed to a group of interest.

  6. Thunderstorm Ground Enhancements Abruptly Terminated by the Lightning Flash

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chilingarian, A. A.; Sogomonyan, S. B.

    2015-12-01

    Electrons giving rise to the Thunderstorm ground enhancements (TGEs) are accelerated in the lower dipole formed by the main negatively charged region in the middle of the cloud and the transient lower positively charged region (LPCR). The LPCR prevents the lightning leader from reaching the ground and usually no -CG lightning occurs during mature LPCR when the particle flux is sizable. Only after decaying of the LPCR lightning the stepped leader makes its path to the ground. Polarized water droplets also have a role in the TGE initiation. Our observations show that only at high humidity the TGEs at Aragats are possible and rains terminate the particle fluxes. We consider TGE events abruptly terminated by the lightning discharge. Proceeding from the large collection of the sharply stopped TGE events detected on Mt. Aragats we investigated how particle fluxes can help the stepped leader to reach the ground.

  7. Change-point models to estimate the limit of detection.

    PubMed

    May, Ryan C; Chu, Haitao; Ibrahim, Joseph G; Hudgens, Michael G; Lees, Abigail C; Margolis, David M

    2013-12-10

    In many biological and environmental studies, measured data is subject to a limit of detection. The limit of detection is generally defined as the lowest concentration of analyte that can be differentiated from a blank sample with some certainty. Data falling below the limit of detection is left censored, falling below a level that is easily quantified by a measuring device. A great deal of interest lies in estimating the limit of detection for a particular measurement device. In this paper, we propose a change-point model to estimate the limit of detection by using data from an experiment with known analyte concentrations. Estimation of the limit of detection proceeds by a two-stage maximum likelihood method. Extensions are considered that allow for censored measurements and data from multiple experiments. A simulation study is conducted demonstrating that in some settings the change-point model provides less biased estimates of the limit of detection than conventional methods. The proposed method is then applied to data from an HIV pilot study.

  8. Segmentation of Arteries in Minimally Invasive Surgery Using Change Detection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Akbari, Hamed; Kosugi, Yukio; Kojima, Kazuyuki

    In laparoscopic surgery, the lack of tactile sensation and 3D visual feedback make it difficult to identify the position of a blood vessel intraoperatively. An unintentional partial tear or complete rupture of a blood vessel may result in a serious complication; moreover, if the surgeon cannot manage this situation, open surgery will be necessary. Differentiation of arteries from veins and other structures and the ability to independently detect them has a variety of applications in surgical procedures involving the head, neck, lung, heart, abdomen, and extremities. We have used the artery's pulsatile movement to detect and differentiate arteries from veins. The algorithm for change detection in this study uses edge detection for unsupervised image registration. Changed regions are identified by subtracting the systolic and diastolic images. As a post-processing step, region properties, including color average, area, major and minor axis lengths, perimeter, and solidity, are used as inputs of the LVQ (Learning Vector Quantization) network. The output results in two object classes: arteries and non-artery regions. After post-processing, arteries can be detected in the laparoscopic field. The registration method used here is evaluated in comparison with other linear and nonlinear elastic methods. The performance of this method is evaluated for the detection of arteries in several laparoscopic surgeries on an animal model and on eleven human patients. The performance evaluation criteria are based on false negative and false positive rates. This algorithm is able to detect artery regions, even in cases where the arteries are obscured by other tissues.

  9. Detection of cardiac activity changes from human speech

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tovarek, Jaromir; Partila, Pavol; Voznak, Miroslav; Mikulec, Martin; Mehic, Miralem

    2015-05-01

    Impact of changes in blood pressure and pulse from human speech is disclosed in this article. The symptoms of increased physical activity are pulse, systolic and diastolic pressure. There are many methods of measuring and indicating these parameters. The measurements must be carried out using devices which are not used in everyday life. In most cases, the measurement of blood pressure and pulse following health problems or other adverse feelings. Nowadays, research teams are trying to design and implement modern methods in ordinary human activities. The main objective of the proposal is to reduce the delay between detecting the adverse pressure and to the mentioned warning signs and feelings. Common and frequent activity of man is speaking, while it is known that the function of the vocal tract can be affected by the change in heart activity. Therefore, it can be a useful parameter for detecting physiological changes. A method for detecting human physiological changes by speech processing and artificial neural network classification is described in this article. The pulse and blood pressure changes was induced by physical exercises in this experiment. The set of measured subjects was formed by ten healthy volunteers of both sexes. None of the subjects was a professional athlete. The process of the experiment was divided into phases before, during and after physical training. Pulse, systolic, diastolic pressure was measured and voice activity was recorded after each of them. The results of this experiment describe a method for detecting increased cardiac activity from human speech using artificial neural network.

  10. Climate Change Detection and Attribution of Infrared Spectrum Measurements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Phojanamongkolkij, Nipa; Parker, Peter A.; Mlynczak, Martin G.

    2012-01-01

    Climate change occurs when the Earth's energy budget changes due to natural or possibly anthropogenic forcings. These forcings cause the climate system to adjust resulting in a new climate state that is warmer or cooler than the original. The key question is how to detect and attribute climate change. The inference of infrared spectral signatures of climate change has been discussed in the literature for nearly 30 years. Pioneering work in the 1980s noted that distinct spectral signatures would be evident in changes in the infrared radiance emitted by the Earth and its atmosphere, and that these could be observed from orbiting satellites. Since then, a number of other studies have advanced the concepts of spectral signatures of climate change. Today the concept of using spectral signatures to identify and attribute atmospheric composition change is firmly accepted and is the foundation of the Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) satellite mission being developed at NASA. In this work, we will present an overview of the current climate change detection concept using climate model calculations as surrogates for climate change. Any future research work improving the methodology to achieve this concept will be valuable to our society.

  11. Towards Greenland Glaciation: cumulative or abrupt transition?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tan, Ning; Dumas, Christophe; Ladant, Jean-Baptiste; Ramstein, Gilles; Contoux, Camille

    2016-04-01

    During the mid-Pliocene warming period (3-3.3 Ma BP), global annual mean temperature is warmer by 2-3 degree than pre-industrial. Greenland ice sheet volume is supposed to be a 50% reduction compared to nowadays [Haywood et al. 2010]. Around 2.7-2.6 Ma BP, just ~ 500 kyr after the warming peak of mid-Pliocene, there is already full Greenland Glaciation [Lunt et al. 2008]. How does Greenland ice sheet evolve from a half size to a glaciation level during 3 Ma - 2.5 Ma? Data show that there is a decreasing trend of atmospheric CO2 concentration from 3 Ma to 2.5 Ma [Seki et al.2010; Bartoli et al. 2011; Martinez et al. 2015]. However, a recent study [Contoux et al. 2015] suggests that a lowering of CO2 is not sufficient to initiate a perennial glaciation on Greenland and must be combined to low summer insolation, to preserve the ice sheet during insolation maximum, suggesting a cumulative process. In order to diagnose whether the ice sheet build-up is an abrupt event or a cumulative process, we carry on, for the first time, a transient simulation of climate and ice sheet evolutions from 3 Ma to 2.5 Ma. This strategy enables to investigate waxing and waning of the ice sheet during several orbital cycles. To reach this goal, we use a tri-dimensional interpolation method designed by Ladant et al. (2014) which combines the evolution of CO2 concentration, orbital parameters and Greenland ice sheet sizes in an off-line way by interpolating snapshots simulations. Thanks to this new method, we can build a transient like simulation through asynchronous coupling between GCM and ice sheet model. With this method, we may consistently answer the question of the build-up of Greenland: abrupt or cumulative process.

  12. Detecting human influence in observed changes in precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Polson, Debbie; Hegerl, Gabriele; Bollasina, Massimo; Wilcox, Laura; Zhang, Xuebin; Osborn, Timothy; Balan Sarojini, Beena

    2015-04-01

    Human induced changes to the precipitation could cause some of the most serious impacts of climate change, with potential consequences for water resources, health, agriculture and ecosystems. However, quantifying and understanding the drivers of changes to precipitation is challenging due to its large spatial and temporal variability, the lack of long-term observational records over much of the globe and the counteracting affects of greenhouse gases and aerosols. Nevertheless, detection and attribution studies have shown that human influence has changed both global and regional precipitation over the latter half of the 20th century. Using climates models to derive fingerprints of external forcing, we are able to show that greenhouse gas warming has driven large scale changes in precipitation. Greenhouse gas forcing is detectable in observed changes to zonal mean precipitation over land (Polson et al., 2012a). It has also been shown to have caused the intensification of the water cycle, enhancing existing patterns of the precipitation in the tropics and subtropics, over both land and ocean (Polson et al., 2012b). While at global scales, the influence of greenhouse gases is detectable in observations, separating the response of precipitation to anthropogenic aerosol forcing is more difficult. However, in some regions the influence of aerosols dominate, making it possible to detect aerosol forcing. Observed precipitation in the monsoon regions underwent substantial changes during the second half of the twentieth century, with drying from the 1950s to mid-1980s and increasing precipitation in recent decades. Climate model simulations are used to derive fingerprints of individual climate forcings (i.e., greenhouse gas, anthropogenic aerosol, and natural) and detection and attribution methods applied to determine which, if any, have driven these changes to monsoon precipitation. Even when accounting for internal variability of the climate, a clear signal of anthropogenic

  13. SAR image change detection using watershed and spectral clustering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Niu, Ruican; Jiao, L. C.; Wang, Guiting; Feng, Jie

    2011-12-01

    A new method of change detection in SAR images based on spectral clustering is presented in this paper. Spectral clustering is employed to extract change information from a pair images acquired on the same geographical area at different time. Watershed transform is applied to initially segment the big image into non-overlapped local regions, leading to reduce the complexity. Experiments results and system analysis confirm the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

  14. The fate of object memory traces under change detection and change blindness.

    PubMed

    Busch, Niko A

    2013-07-01

    Observers often fail to detect substantial changes in a visual scene. This so-called change blindness is often taken as evidence that visual representations are sparse and volatile. This notion rests on the assumption that the failure to detect a change implies that representations of the changing objects are lost all together. However, recent evidence suggests that under change blindness, object memory representations may be formed and stored, but not retrieved. This study investigated the fate of object memory representations when changes go unnoticed. Participants were presented with scenes consisting of real world objects, one of which changed on each trial, while recording event-related potentials (ERPs). Participants were first asked to localize where the change had occurred. In an additional recognition task, participants then discriminated old objects, either from the pre-change or the post-change scene, from entirely new objects. Neural traces of object memories were studied by comparing ERPs for old and novel objects. Participants performed poorly in the detection task and often failed to recognize objects from the scene, especially pre-change objects. However, a robust old/novel effect was observed in the ERP, even when participants were change blind and did not recognize the old object. This implicit memory trace was found both for pre-change and post-change objects. These findings suggest that object memories are stored even under change blindness. Thus, visual representations may not be as sparse and volatile as previously thought. Rather, change blindness may point to a failure to retrieve and use these representations for change detection.

  15. Detecting changes in terrain using unmanned aerial vehicles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rahman, Zia-ur; Hines, Glenn D.; Logan, Michael J.

    2005-05-01

    In recent years, small unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have been used for more than the thrill they bring to model airplane enthusiasts. Their flexibility and low cost have made them a viable option for low-altitude reconnaissance. In a recent effort, we acquired video data from a small UAV during several passes over the same flight path. The objective of the exercise was to determine if objects had been added to the terrain along the flight path between flight passes. Several issues accrue to this simple-sounding problem: (1) lighting variations may cause false detection of objects because of changes in shadow orientation and strength between passes; (2) variations in the flight path due to wind-speed, and heading change may cause misalignment of gross features making the task of detecting changes between the frames very difficult; and (3) changes in the aircraft orientation and altitude lead to a change in size of the features from frame-to-frame making a comparison difficult. In this paper, we discuss our efforts to perform this change detection, and the lessons that we learned from this exercise.

  16. A change detection approach to moving object detection in low frame-rate video

    SciTech Connect

    Porter, Reid B; Harvey, Neal R; Theiler, James P

    2009-01-01

    Moving object detection is of significant interest in temporal image analysis since it is a first step in many object identification and tracking applications. A key component in almost all moving object detection algorithms is a pixel-level classifier, where each pixel is predicted to be either part of a moving object or part of the background. In this paper we investigate a change detection approach to the pixel-level classification problem and evaluate its impact on moving object detection. The change detection approach that we investigate was previously applied to multi-and hyper-spectral datasets, where images were typically taken several days, or months apart. In this paper, we apply the approach to low-frame rate (1-2 frames per second) video datasets.

  17. Environmental Change Detection Using Multi-Temporal SAR Imagery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fazel, Mohammad A.; Homayouni, Saeid; Aghakarimi, Armin

    2013-04-01

    Monitoring of environmental phenomena in short-, mid- and long-term periods is the first step of any study or plan for natural resource management. As a result, detection and identification of the environmental changes became a main area of research for different applications. Remotely sensed data and especially Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery thanks to its independence to weather conditions and sun illumination, and its spatial and temporal resolution ability is a valuable source of information for change detection analysis and provides reliable data for information extraction for various applications. In general, change detection methods are grouped into supervised and unsupervised methods. Supervised methods work based on multi-temporal land-cover mapping of satellite images. While, unsupervised techniques include the very simple idea of image differencing to more sophisticated statistical modeling of changes in images. Unsupervised methods because of their advantages are more important in many applications. In recent years, the use of kernel based methods in change detection applications became an interesting topic in remote sensing community. Kernel-based methods and machine learning algorithms are the unsupervised paradigms which introduced powerful tools to deal with nonlinear classification. In this paper, we have presented a fully unsupervised framework for detecting the Urmia Lake changes during 2007 to 2010. This method uses the kernel-based clustering technique. The kernel k-means algorithm separates the changes from no-change classes of speckle free images. This method is a non-linear algorithm which considers the contextual information. For this purpose, at first, difference maps are calculated from multi-temporal data. Then these maps are projected into a higher dimensional space by using kernel function. Finally an unsupervised k-means clustering algorithm is used to obtain change and no-change classes. The proposed methodology is applied to

  18. Detection of epigenetic changes using ANOVA with spatially varying coefficients.

    PubMed

    Guanghua, Xiao; Xinlei, Wang; Quincey, LaPlant; Nestler, Eric J; Xie, Yang

    2013-03-13

    Identification of genome-wide epigenetic changes, the stable changes in gene function without a change in DNA sequence, under various conditions plays an important role in biomedical research. High-throughput epigenetic experiments are useful tools to measure genome-wide epigenetic changes, but the measured intensity levels from these high-resolution genome-wide epigenetic profiling data are often spatially correlated with high noise levels. In addition, it is challenging to detect genome-wide epigenetic changes across multiple conditions, so efficient statistical methodology development is needed for this purpose. In this study, we consider ANOVA models with spatially varying coefficients, combined with a hierarchical Bayesian approach, to explicitly model spatial correlation caused by location-dependent biological effects (i.e., epigenetic changes) and borrow strength among neighboring probes to compare epigenetic changes across multiple conditions. Through simulation studies and applications in drug addiction and depression datasets, we find that our approach compares favorably with competing methods; it is more efficient in estimation and more effective in detecting epigenetic changes. In addition, it can provide biologically meaningful results.

  19. Climate change and the detection of trends in annual runoff

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McCabe, G.J., Jr.; Wolock, D.M.

    1997-01-01

    This study examines the statistical likelihood of detecting a trend in annual runoff given an assumed change in mean annual runoff, the underlying year-to-year variability in runoff, and serial correlation of annual runoff. Means, standard deviations, and lag-1 serial correlations of annual runoff were computed for 585 stream gages in the conterminous United States, and these statistics were used to compute the probability of detecting a prescribed trend in annual runoff. Assuming a linear 20% change in mean annual runoff over a 100 yr period and a significance level of 95%, the average probability of detecting a significant trend was 28% among the 585 stream gages. The largest probability of detecting a trend was in the northwestern U.S., the Great Lakes region, the northeastern U.S., the Appalachian Mountains, and parts of the northern Rocky Mountains. The smallest probability of trend detection was in the central and southwestern U.S., and in Florida. Low probabilities of trend detection were associated with low ratios of mean annual runoff to the standard deviation of annual runoff and with high lag-1 serial correlation in the data.

  20. Robust Detection of Examinees with Aberrant Answer Changes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Belov, Dmitry I.

    2015-01-01

    The statistical analysis of answer changes (ACs) has uncovered multiple testing irregularities on large-scale assessments and is now routinely performed at testing organizations. However, AC data has an uncertainty caused by technological or human factors. Therefore, existing statistics (e.g., number of wrong-to-right ACs) used to detect examinees…

  1. Improved forest change detection with terrain illumination corrected landsat images

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    An illumination correction algorithm has been developed to improve the accuracy of forest change detection from Landsat reflectance data. This algorithm is based on an empirical rotation model and was tested on the Landsat imagery pair over Cherokee National Forest, Tennessee, Uinta-Wasatch-Cache N...

  2. Cryosphere Change Detection With The Autonomous Sciencecraft Experiment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davies, A. G.; Doggett, T. C.

    2006-05-01

    The Autonomous Sciencecraft Experiment (ASE) is operating on-board Earth Observing - 1 (EO-1) with the Hyperion hyper-spectral visible to short-wave infrared spectrometer. ASE science activities include autonomous monitoring of cryospheric changes, triggering the collection of additional data when change is detected and filtering of null data such as no change or cloud cover. A cryosphere classification algorithm, developed with Support Vector Machine (SVM) machine learning techniques [1], replacing a manually derived classifier used in earlier operations [2], has been used in conjunction with on-board autonomous software application to execute over two hundred on-board scenarios in 2005 and early 2006, to detect and autonomously respond to sea ice break-up and formation, lake freeze and thaw, as well as the onset and melting of snow cover on land. This demonstrates an approach which could be applied to the monitoring of cryospheres on Earth and Mars as well as the search for dynamic activity on the icy moons of the outer solar system. [1] Castano et al. (2005) Learning classifiers for event detection in remote sensing imagery, i-SAIRAS, [2] Doggett et al. (2006), Autonomous detection of cryospheric change with Hyperion on-board Earth Observing-1, Rem. Sens. Env. (in press)

  3. Population variability complicates the accurate detection of climate change responses.

    PubMed

    McCain, Christy; Szewczyk, Tim; Bracy Knight, Kevin

    2016-06-01

    The rush to assess species' responses to anthropogenic climate change (CC) has underestimated the importance of interannual population variability (PV). Researchers assume sampling rigor alone will lead to an accurate detection of response regardless of the underlying population fluctuations of the species under consideration. Using population simulations across a realistic, empirically based gradient in PV, we show that moderate to high PV can lead to opposite and biased conclusions about CC responses. Between pre- and post-CC sampling bouts of modeled populations as in resurvey studies, there is: (i) A 50% probability of erroneously detecting the opposite trend in population abundance change and nearly zero probability of detecting no change. (ii) Across multiple years of sampling, it is nearly impossible to accurately detect any directional shift in population sizes with even moderate PV. (iii) There is up to 50% probability of detecting a population extirpation when the species is present, but in very low natural abundances. (iv) Under scenarios of moderate to high PV across a species' range or at the range edges, there is a bias toward erroneous detection of range shifts or contractions. Essentially, the frequency and magnitude of population peaks and troughs greatly impact the accuracy of our CC response measurements. Species with moderate to high PV (many small vertebrates, invertebrates, and annual plants) may be inaccurate 'canaries in the coal mine' for CC without pertinent demographic analyses and additional repeat sampling. Variation in PV may explain some idiosyncrasies in CC responses detected so far and urgently needs more careful consideration in design and analysis of CC responses.

  4. Cesarean Delivery for a Life-threatening Preterm Placental Abruption

    PubMed Central

    Okafor, II; Ugwu, EO

    2015-01-01

    Placental abruption is one of the major life-threatening obstetric conditions. The fetomaternal outcome of a severe placental abruption depends largely on prompt maternal resuscitation and delivery. A case of severe preterm placental abruption with intrauterine fetal death. Following a failed induction of labor with a deteriorating maternal condition despite resuscitation, emergency cesarean delivery was offered with good maternal outcome. Cesarean delivery could avert further disease progression and possible maternal death in cases of severe preterm placental abruption where vaginal delivery is not imminent. However, further studies are necessary before this could be recommended for routine clinical practice. PMID:27057388

  5. Abrupt tectonics and rapid slab detachment with grain damage.

    PubMed

    Bercovici, David; Schubert, Gerald; Ricard, Yanick

    2015-02-01

    A simple model for necking and detachment of subducting slabs is developed to include the coupling between grain-sensitive rheology and grain-size evolution with damage. Necking is triggered by thickened buoyant crust entrained into a subduction zone, in which case grain damage accelerates necking and allows for relatively rapid slab detachment, i.e., within 1 My, depending on the size of the crustal plug. Thick continental crustal plugs can cause rapid necking while smaller plugs characteristic of ocean plateaux cause slower necking; oceanic lithosphere with normal or slightly thickened crust subducts without necking. The model potentially explains how large plateaux or continental crust drawn into subduction zones can cause slab loss and rapid changes in plate motion and/or induce abrupt continental rebound. PMID:25605890

  6. Abrupt tectonics and rapid slab detachment with grain damage.

    PubMed

    Bercovici, David; Schubert, Gerald; Ricard, Yanick

    2015-02-01

    A simple model for necking and detachment of subducting slabs is developed to include the coupling between grain-sensitive rheology and grain-size evolution with damage. Necking is triggered by thickened buoyant crust entrained into a subduction zone, in which case grain damage accelerates necking and allows for relatively rapid slab detachment, i.e., within 1 My, depending on the size of the crustal plug. Thick continental crustal plugs can cause rapid necking while smaller plugs characteristic of ocean plateaux cause slower necking; oceanic lithosphere with normal or slightly thickened crust subducts without necking. The model potentially explains how large plateaux or continental crust drawn into subduction zones can cause slab loss and rapid changes in plate motion and/or induce abrupt continental rebound.

  7. Abrupt tectonics and rapid slab detachment with grain damage

    PubMed Central

    Bercovici, David; Schubert, Gerald; Ricard, Yanick

    2015-01-01

    A simple model for necking and detachment of subducting slabs is developed to include the coupling between grain-sensitive rheology and grain-size evolution with damage. Necking is triggered by thickened buoyant crust entrained into a subduction zone, in which case grain damage accelerates necking and allows for relatively rapid slab detachment, i.e., within 1 My, depending on the size of the crustal plug. Thick continental crustal plugs can cause rapid necking while smaller plugs characteristic of ocean plateaux cause slower necking; oceanic lithosphere with normal or slightly thickened crust subducts without necking. The model potentially explains how large plateaux or continental crust drawn into subduction zones can cause slab loss and rapid changes in plate motion and/or induce abrupt continental rebound. PMID:25605890

  8. Groundwater storage change detection using micro-gravimetric technology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    El-Diasty, Mohammed

    2016-06-01

    In this paper, new perspectives and developments in applying a ground-based micro-gravimetric method to detect groundwater storage change in Waterloo Moraine are investigated. Four epochs of gravity survey were conducted using absolute gravimeter (FG5), two relative gravity meters (CG5) and two geodetic global positioning systems (GPS) in the Waterloo Moraine in May and August of 2010 and 2011, respectively. Data were processed using the parametric least-squares method and integrated with geological and hydrological studies. The gravity differences between May and August for 2010 and 2011 epochs were inverted to provide the estimated total water storage changes. Changes in soil water content obtained from land surface models of Ecological Assimilation of Land and Climate Observations (EALCO) and the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) program were employed to estimate the groundwater storage change. The ratios between the estimated groundwater storage changes and measured water table changes (specific yields) were determined at a local monitoring well located in the survey area. The results showed that the estimates of specific yields between May and August of 2010 and 2011 were consistent at a significant confidence level and are also within the range of the specific yield from geological and hydrological studies. Therefore, the micro-gravimetric (absolute and relative gravity meters) technology has demonstrated the great potential in detecting groundwater storage change and specific yield for local scale aquifers such as Waterloo Moraine.

  9. Silicon chips detect intracellular pressure changes in living cells.

    PubMed

    Gómez-Martínez, Rodrigo; Hernández-Pinto, Alberto M; Duch, Marta; Vázquez, Patricia; Zinoviev, Kirill; de la Rosa, Enrique J; Esteve, Jaume; Suárez, Teresa; Plaza, José A

    2013-07-01

    The ability to measure pressure changes inside different components of a living cell is important, because it offers an alternative way to study fundamental processes that involve cell deformation. Most current techniques such as pipette aspiration, optical interferometry or external pressure probes use either indirect measurement methods or approaches that can damage the cell membrane. Here we show that a silicon chip small enough to be internalized into a living cell can be used to detect pressure changes inside the cell. The chip, which consists of two membranes separated by a vacuum gap to form a Fabry-Pérot resonator, detects pressure changes that can be quantified from the intensity of the reflected light. Using this chip, we show that extracellular hydrostatic pressure is transmitted into HeLa cells and that these cells can endure hypo-osmotic stress without significantly increasing their intracellular hydrostatic pressure.

  10. Silicon chips detect intracellular pressure changes in living cells

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gómez-Martínez, Rodrigo; Hernández-Pinto, Alberto M.; Duch, Marta; Vázquez, Patricia; Zinoviev, Kirill; de La Rosa, Enrique J.; Esteve, Jaume; Suárez, Teresa; Plaza, José A.

    2013-07-01

    The ability to measure pressure changes inside different components of a living cell is important, because it offers an alternative way to study fundamental processes that involve cell deformation. Most current techniques such as pipette aspiration, optical interferometry or external pressure probes use either indirect measurement methods or approaches that can damage the cell membrane. Here we show that a silicon chip small enough to be internalized into a living cell can be used to detect pressure changes inside the cell. The chip, which consists of two membranes separated by a vacuum gap to form a Fabry-Pérot resonator, detects pressure changes that can be quantified from the intensity of the reflected light. Using this chip, we show that extracellular hydrostatic pressure is transmitted into HeLa cells and that these cells can endure hypo-osmotic stress without significantly increasing their intracellular hydrostatic pressure.

  11. The Necessity of Awareness of Early Symptoms of Placental Abruption Among Pregnant Japanese Women

    PubMed Central

    Suzuki, Shunji; Shinmura, Hiroki

    2016-01-01

    Background In 2012, the recommendation for immediate contact and visit to obstetric institutions by pregnant women was emphasized by The Japan Obstetric Compensation System for Cerebral Palsy (JOCSC). In this study, we examined whether or not the increased awareness has led to the improvement of perinatal outcomes of placental abruption managed at private clinics. Methods We reviewed the obstetric records of 38 singleton pregnant women complicated by placental abruption that developed at home, and were managed at private clinics from April 2008 through April 2016. Results The perinatal outcomes, specifically the rate of cases with ≥ 1 hour time interval between symptom onset and clinic visit, have not changed significantly after the intervention. Conclusion The provision of information regarding the early clinical symptoms associated with placental abruption in pregnant women has not been well documented in Japan. PMID:27540442

  12. Change detection is impaired in children with dyslexia.

    PubMed

    Rutkowski, Jacqueline S; Crewther, David P; Crewther, Sheila G

    2003-01-01

    The severe deficits in rapid automatized naming demonstrated by children with developmental dyslexia has usually been interpreted in terms of a deficit in speed of access to the lexicon rather than as a possible deficit in speed of visual object recognition. Yet fluent reading requires rapid visual recognition and semantic interpretation of new letters and words appearing in successive fixations of the eyes. Thus we wondered whether change detection performance was related to reading ability. We investigated whether children with developmental dyslexia (DD) were less able to detect change in a simple display--gap--display paradigm than normal reading (NR) children of the same age and children with impaired reading and mentation (LD). In a first experimental phase, the DDs required a longer initial exposure of four letter items in order to detect change of a single letter at a level of 71% correct, compared with NRs performing at the same level. Thus the deficit in reading in DD is associated with a deficit in early processes associated with visual recognition. In a second experimental phase (using the individual target display exposures measured in the first phase), cues appeared during the 250 ms gap for a period of either 0 (no cue), 50 or 200 ms immediately prior to the presentation of the second (comparison) display. Children of all groups showed dependence on the presence of the cue to help make a judgement of change (versus no change), with the NRs least affected. When change was detected in the presence of a cue, the NRs were better able to identify the new letter than either of the other groups. However, only about 50% of the correct detections were accompanied by a correct identification. Despite published reports of a mini-neglect for left visual field in dyslexic adults, none of our groups showed such an effect. However, a significant upper visual field (UpVF) advantage in change detection performance was found across groups, which we interpret in terms

  13. Abrupt carbon release at the onset of the Bølling/Allerød: Permafrost thawing with inter-hemispheric impact

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Köhler, Peter; Knorr, Gregor; Bard, Edouard

    2014-05-01

    Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) during the last deglaciation (~18-10 kyr BP) switched around 14.6 kyr BP from a rather gradual rise to an abrupt jump, which is recorded in ice cores as an increase of 10 ppmv in less than two centuries. So far the source of that CO2 excursion could not be identified and the climatic implications are largely unknown. Here we use highly resolved U/Th dated atmospheric Δ14C from Tahiti corals as independent age control for CO2 changes. This provides a temporal framework to show that the northern high latitude warming into the Bølling/Allerød occurred quasi-synchronous to this CO2 rise within a few decades. Furthermore we show that an abrupt release (within two centuries) of long-term immobile nearly 14C-free carbon (~125 PgC) from thawing permafrost might explain the observed anomalies in atmospheric CO2 and Δ14C, in line with CH4 and biomarker records from ice and sediment cores. In transient climate simulations we show that the abrupt carbon release in the northern high latitudes and associated CO2 changes bear the potential to modulate Antarctic temperature. These findings are in agreement with the observed onset of the Antarctic Cold Reversal about two centuries after the beginning of the Bølling/Allerød, as detected in independent annual layer-counted ice cores from both hemispheres. Based on the timing, magnitude, origin and the inter-hemispheric impact we speculate that this abrupt deglacial release of long-term stored carbon via thawing permafrost might have provided the final push out of the last ice age.

  14. Towards Greenland Glaciation: Cumulative or Abrupt Transition?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tan, N.; Ramstein, G.; Contoux, C.; Ladant, J. B.; Dumas, C.; Donnadieu, Y.

    2014-12-01

    The insolation evolution [Laskar 2004] from 4 to 2.5 Ma depicts a series of three summer solstice insolation minima between 2.7 and 2.6 Ma, but there are other more important summer solstice minima notably around 3.82 and 3.05 Ma. On such a time span of more than 1 Ma, data shows that there are variations in the evolution of atmospheric CO2 concentration with a local maximum around 3 Ma [Seki et al.2010; Bartoli et al. 2011], before a decrease between 3 and 2.6 Ma. The latter, suggesting an abrupt ice sheet inception around 2.7 Ma, has been shown to be a major culprit for the full Greenland Glaciation [Lunt et al. 2008]. However, a recent study [Contoux et al. 2014, in review] suggests that a lowering of CO2 is not sufficient to initiate a glaciation on Greenland and must be combined to low summer insolation, with surviving ice during insolation maximum, suggesting a cumulative process in the first place, which could further lead to full glaciation at 2.7 Ma. Through a new tri-dimensional interpolation method implemented within the asynchronous coupling between an atmosphere ocean general circulation model (IPSL-CM5A) and an ice sheet model (GRISLI), we investigate the transient evolution of Greenland ice sheet during the Pliocene to diagnose whether the ice sheet inception is an abrupt event or rather a cumulative process, involving waxing and waning of the ice sheet during several orbital cycles. ReferencesBartoli, G., Hönisch, B., & Zeebe, R. E. (2011). Atmospheric CO2 decline during the Pliocene intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciations. Paleoceanography, 26(4). Contoux C, Dumas C, Ramstein G, Jost A, Dolan A. M. (2014) Modelling Greenland Ice sheet inception and sustainability during the late Pliocene. (in review for Earth and Planetary Science Letters.).Laskar, J., Robutel, P., Joutel, F., Gastineau, M., Correia, A. C. M., & Levrard, B. (2004). A long-term numerical solution for the insolation quantities of the Earth. Astronomy & Astrophysics, 428

  15. A targeted change-detection procedure by combining change vector analysis and post-classification approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ye, Su; Chen, Dongmei; Yu, Jie

    2016-04-01

    In remote sensing, conventional supervised change-detection methods usually require effective training data for multiple change types. This paper introduces a more flexible and efficient procedure that seeks to identify only the changes that users are interested in, here after referred to as "targeted change detection". Based on a one-class classifier "Support Vector Domain Description (SVDD)", a novel algorithm named "Three-layer SVDD Fusion (TLSF)" is developed specially for targeted change detection. The proposed algorithm combines one-class classification generated from change vector maps, as well as before- and after-change images in order to get a more reliable detecting result. In addition, this paper introduces a detailed workflow for implementing this algorithm. This workflow has been applied to two case studies with different practical monitoring objectives: urban expansion and forest fire assessment. The experiment results of these two case studies show that the overall accuracy of our proposed algorithm is superior (Kappa statistics are 86.3% and 87.8% for Case 1 and 2, respectively), compared to applying SVDD to change vector analysis and post-classification comparison.

  16. Change point detection in risk adjusted control charts.

    PubMed

    Assareh, Hassan; Smith, Ian; Mengersen, Kerrie

    2015-12-01

    Precise identification of the time when a change in a clinical process has occurred enables experts to identify a potential special cause more effectively. In this article, we develop change point estimation methods for a clinical dichotomous process in the presence of case mix. We apply Bayesian hierarchical models to formulate the change point where there exists a step change in the odds ratio and logit of risk of a Bernoulli process. Markov Chain Monte Carlo is used to obtain posterior distributions of the change point parameters including location and magnitude of changes and also corresponding probabilistic intervals and inferences. The performance of the Bayesian estimator is investigated through simulations and the result shows that precise estimates can be obtained when they are used in conjunction with the risk-adjusted CUSUM and EWMA control charts. In comparison with alternative EWMA and CUSUM estimators, more accurate and precise estimates are obtained by the Bayesian estimator. These superiorities enhance when probability quantification, flexibility and generaliability of the Bayesian change point detection model are also considered. The Deviance Information Criterion, as a model selection criterion in the Bayesian context, is applied to find the best change point model for a given dataset where there is no prior knowledge about the change type in the process.

  17. Global scene layout modulates contextual learning in change detection.

    PubMed

    Conci, Markus; Müller, Hermann J

    2014-01-01

    Change in the visual scene often goes unnoticed - a phenomenon referred to as "change blindness." This study examined whether the hierarchical structure, i.e., the global-local layout of a scene can influence performance in a one-shot change detection paradigm. To this end, natural scenes of a laid breakfast table were presented, and observers were asked to locate the onset of a new local object. Importantly, the global structure of the scene was manipulated by varying the relations among objects in the scene layouts. The very same items were either presented as global-congruent (typical) layouts or as global-incongruent (random) arrangements. Change blindness was less severe for congruent than for incongruent displays, and this congruency benefit increased with the duration of the experiment. These findings show that global layouts are learned, supporting detection of local changes with enhanced efficiency. However, performance was not affected by scene congruency in a subsequent control experiment that required observers to localize a static discontinuity (i.e., an object that was missing from the repeated layouts). Our results thus show that learning of the global layout is particularly linked to the local objects. Taken together, our results reveal an effect of "global precedence" in natural scenes. We suggest that relational properties within the hierarchy of a natural scene are governed, in particular, by global image analysis, reducing change blindness for local objects through scene learning.

  18. Statistical method for detecting structural change in the growth process.

    PubMed

    Ninomiya, Yoshiyuki; Yoshimoto, Atsushi

    2008-03-01

    Due to competition among individual trees and other exogenous factors that change the growth environment, each tree grows following its own growth trend with some structural changes in growth over time. In the present article, a new method is proposed to detect a structural change in the growth process. We formulate the method as a simple statistical test for signal detection without constructing any specific model for the structural change. To evaluate the p-value of the test, the tube method is developed because the regular distribution theory is insufficient. Using two sets of tree diameter growth data sampled from planted forest stands of Cryptomeria japonica in Japan, we conduct an analysis of identifying the effect of thinning on the growth process as a structural change. Our results demonstrate that the proposed method is useful to identify the structural change caused by thinning. We also provide the properties of the method in terms of the size and power of the test. PMID:17608782

  19. Object-Based Change Detection Using Georeferenced Uav Images

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shi, J.; Wang, J.; Xu, Y.

    2011-09-01

    Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) have been widely used to capture and down-link real-time videos/images. However, their role as a low-cost airborne platform for capturing high-resolution, geo-referenced still imagery has not been fully utilized. The images obtained from UAV are advantageous over remote sensing images as they can be obtained at a low cost and potentially no risk to human life. However, these images are distorted due to the noise generated by the rotary wings which limits the usefulness of such images. One potential application of such images is to detect changes between the images of the same area which are collected over time. Change detection is of widespread interest due to a large number of applications, including surveillance and civil infrastructure. Although UAVs can provide images with high resolution in a portable and easy way, such images only cover small parts of the entire field of interest and are often with high deformation. Until now, there is not much application of change detection for UAV images. Also the traditional pixel-based change detection method does not give satisfactory results for such images. In this paper, we have proposed a novel object-based method for change detection using UAV images which can overcome the effect of deformation and can fully utilize the high resolution capability of UAV images. The developed method can be divided into five main blocks: pre-processing, image matching, image segmentation and feature extraction, change detection and accuracy evaluation. The pre-processing step is further divided into two sub-steps: the first sub-step is to geometrically correct the bi-temporal image based on the geo-reference information (GPS/INS) installed on the UAV system, and the second sub-step is the radiometric normalization using a histogram method. The image matching block uses the well-known scale-invariant feature transform (SIFT) algorithm to match the same areas in the images and then resample them. The

  20. Automatic analysis of the slight change image for unsupervised change detection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Jilian; Sun, Weidong

    2015-01-01

    We propose an unsupervised method for slight change extraction and detection in multitemporal hyperspectral image sequence. To exploit the spectral signatures in hyperspectral images, autoregressive integrated moving average and fitting models are employed to create a prediction of single-band and multiband time series. Minimum mean absolute error index is then applied to obtain the preliminary change information image (PCII), which contains slight change information. After that, feature vectors are created for each pixel in the PCII using block processing and locally linear embedding. The final change detection (CD) mask is obtained by clustering the extracted feature vectors into changed and unchanged classes using k-means clustering algorithm with k=2. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method extracts the slight change information efficiently in the hyperspectral image sequence and outperforms the state-of-the-art CD methods quantitatively and qualitatively.

  1. Detection of Epigenetic Changes Using ANOVA with Spatially Varying Coefficients

    PubMed Central

    Xiao, Guanghua; Wang, Xinlei; LaPlant, Quincey; Nestler, Eric; Xie, Yang

    2016-01-01

    Identification of genome-wide epigenetic changes, the stable changes in gene function without a change in DNA sequence, under various conditions plays an important role in biomedical research. High-throughput epigenetic experiments are useful tools to measure genome-wide epigenetic changes, but the measured intensity levels from these high-resolution genome-wide epigenetic profiling data are often spatially correlated with high noise levels. In addition, no formal statistical method was developed to compare genome-wide epigenetic changes across multiple conditions. In this study, we consider ANOVA models with spatially varying coefficients, combined with a hierarchical Bayes approach, to explicitly model spatial correlation caused by location-dependent biological effects (i.e., epigenetic changes) and borrow strength among neighboring probes to compare epigenetic changes across multiple conditions. Through simulation studies and applications in drug addiction and depression models, we find that our approach compares favorably with competing methods; it is more efficient in estimation and more effective in detecting epigenetic changes. In addition, it can provide biologically meaningful results. PMID:23502341

  2. The failure to detect tactile change: a tactile analogue of visual change blindness.

    PubMed

    Gallace, Alberto; Tan, Hong Z; Spence, Charles

    2006-04-01

    A large body of empirical research now shows that people are surprisingly poor at detecting significant changes in visually presented scenes. This phenomenon is known as change blindness in vision. A similar phenomenon occurs in audition, but to date no such effect has been documented in touch. In the present study, we explored the ability of people to detect changes introduced between two consecutively presented vibrotactile patterns presented over the body surface. The patterns consisted of two or three vibrotactile stimuli presented for 200 msec. The position of one of the vibrotactile stimuli composing the display was repeatedly changed (alternating between two different positions) on 50% of the trials, but the same pattern was presented repeatedly on the remaining trials. Three conditions were investigated: No interval between the patterns, an empty interval between the patterns, and a masked interval between the patterns. Change detection was near perfect in the no-interval block. Performance deteriorated somewhat in the empty-interval block, but by far the worst change detection performance occurred in the masked-interval block. These results demonstrate that "change blindness" can also affect tactile perception. PMID:16892998

  3. When visual transients impair tactile change detection: a novel case of crossmodal change blindness?

    PubMed

    Gallace, Alberto; Auvray, Malika; Tan, Hong Z; Spence, Charles

    2006-05-01

    The inability of people to detect changes between consecutively presented visual displays, when separated by a blank screen or distractor, is known as "change blindness". This phenomenon has recently been reported to occur within the auditory and tactile modalities as well. To date, however, only distractors presented within the same sensory modality as the change have been demonstrated to produce change blindness. In the present experiment, we studied whether tactile change blindness might also be elicited by the presentation of a visual mask. Participants made same versus different judgments regarding two successively presented displays composed of two to three vibrotactile stimuli. While change detection performance was near-perfect when the two displays were presented one directly after the other, participants failed to detect many of the changes between the tactile displays when they were separated by an empty temporal interval. Critically, performance deteriorated still further when the presentation of a local (i.e., a mudsplash) or global visual transient coincided with the onset of the second tactile pattern. Analysis of the results using signal detection theory revealed that this crossmodal effect reflected a genuine perceptual impairment. PMID:16480821

  4. Going, Going, Gone: Localizing Abrupt Offsets of Moving Objects

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Maus, Gerrit W.; Nijhawan, Romi

    2009-01-01

    When a moving object abruptly disappears, this profoundly influences its localization by the visual system. In Experiment 1, 2 aligned objects moved across the screen, and 1 of them abruptly disappeared. Observers reported seeing the objects misaligned at the time of the offset, with the continuing object leading. Experiment 2 showed that the…

  5. A structural framework for anomalous change detection and characterization

    SciTech Connect

    Prasad, Lakshman; Theiler, James P

    2009-01-01

    We present a spatially adaptive scheme for automatically searching a pair of images of a scene for unusual and interesting changes. Our motivation is to bring into play structural aspects of image features alongside the spectral attributes used for anomalous change detection (ACD). We leverage a small but informative subset of pixels, namely edge pixels of the images, as anchor points of a Delaunay triangulation to jointly decompose the images into a set of triangular regions, called trixels, which are spectrally uniform. Such decomposition helps in image regularization by simple-function approximation on a feature-adaptive grid. Applying ACD to this trixel grid instead of pixels offers several advantages. It allows: (1) edge-preserving smoothing of images, (2) speed-up of spatial computations by significantly reducing the representation of the images, and (3) the easy recovery of structure of the detected anomalous changes by associating anomalous trixels with polygonal image features. The latter facility further enables the application of shape-theoretic criteria and algorithms to characterize the changes and recognize them as interesting or not. This incorporation of spatial information has the potential to filter out some spurious changes, such as due to parallax, shadows, and misregistration, by identifying and filtering out those that are structurally similar and spatially pervasive. Our framework supports the joint spatial and spectral analysis of images, potentially enabling the design of more robust ACD algorithms.

  6. Ultrasound thermal change detection based on steerable filters.

    PubMed

    Sahba, Nima; Tavakoli, Vahid; Nambakhsh, MohamadSaleh

    2008-01-01

    Growing tendency toward utilization of Laser and RF knives has opened a new port for thermal control applications in which ultrasound thermal detection is crucial. Ultrasound velocity is dependent on the thermal properties of the environment. In this paper we focus on tissue temperature detection using multiresolution steerable filter-based motion estimation. The proposed technique was evaluated on simulated and real in-vivo cases during surgical occlusion and reopening of renal segmental artery and demonstrated promising results for observation of internal organ temperature changes using only digital ultrasound systems for diagnosis and therapy. It is proved that being oriented in space and time, steerable filters can achieve more accurate results. Performing thermal detection methods on synthetic phantoms demonstrated good correlation between speckle shifts and the ground truth temperature. For the simulated images average thermal error was 0.68 degrees Celsius with a standard deviation of 0.79.

  7. Refractive index change detection based on porous silicon microarray

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Weirong; Jia, Zhenhong; Li, Peng; Lv, Guodong; Lv, Xiaoyi

    2016-05-01

    By combining photolithography with the electrochemical anodization method, a microarray device of porous silicon (PS) photonic crystal was fabricated on the crystalline silicon substrate. The optical properties of the microarray were analyzed with the transfer matrix method. The relationship between refractive index and reflectivity of each array element of the microarray at 633 nm was also studied, and the array surface reflectivity changes were observed through digital imaging. By means of the reflectivity measurement method, reflectivity changes below 10-3 can be observed based on PS microarray. The results of this study can be applied to the detection of biosensor arrays.

  8. Theory of optimal weighting of data to detect climatic change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bell, T. L.

    1986-01-01

    A search for climatic change predicted by climate models can easily yield unconvincing results because of 'climatic noise,' the inherent, unpredictable variability of time-average atmospheric data. A weighted average of data that maximizes the probability of detecting predicted climatic change is presented. To obtain the optimal weights, an estimate of the covariance matrix of the data from a prior data set is needed. This introduces additional sampling error into the method. This is presently taken into account. A form of the weighted average is found whose probability distribution is independent of the true (but unknown) covariance statistics of the data and of the climate model prediction.

  9. Techniques of UAV system land use changes detection application

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Youying; Cui, Hongxia

    2011-02-01

    The unmanned aerial vehicle( UAV) was able to acquire remote sensing images with low cost, precise and high spatial resolution information needed by management of Land use at desired time. The aim of this paper was to present an overview of the ongoing research on the potential and techniques of low-altitude UAV system for land use applications. The development of crucial subsystems consisting of the UAV platforms, multiple camera system, camera calibration and photogrammetric production, was introduced together. A procedure of images acquisition and photogrammetric processing was proposed. To detect land use changes, methods based on DSMs and DLG were discussed and adopted in this paper. Finally, analysis of land use research based UAVs was realized on real flight experiments of two study areas. The results of this study show that UAVs can be used successfully for land use change detection.

  10. Impact of LANDSAT MSS sensor differences on change detection analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Likens, W. C.; Wrigley, R. C.

    1983-01-01

    Some 512 by 512 pixel subwindows for simultaneously acquired scene pairs obtained by LANDSAT 2,3 and 4 multispectral band scanners were coregistered using LANDSAT 4 scenes as the base to which the other images were registered. Scattergrams between the coregistered scenes (a form of contingency analysis) were used to radiometrically compare data from the various sensors. Mode values were derived and used to visually fit a linear regression. Root mean square errors of the registration varied between .1 and 1.5 pixels. There appear to be no major problem preventing the use of LANDSAT 4 MSS with previous MSS sensors for change detection, provided the noise interference can be removed or minimized. Data normalizations for change detection should be based on the data rather than solely on calibration information. This allows simultaneous normalization of the atmosphere as well as the radiometry.

  11. [Early detection of cervical cancer in Chile: time for change].

    PubMed

    Léniz Martelli, Javiera; Van De Wyngard, Vanessa; Lagos, Marcela; Barriga, María Isabel; Puschel Illanes, Klaus; Ferreccio Readi, Catterina

    2014-08-01

    Mortality rates for cervical cancer (CC) in Chile are higher than those of developed countries and it has an unequal socioeconomic distribution. The recognition of human papilloma virus (HPV) as the causal agent of cervical cancer in the early 80's changed the prevention paradigms. Current goals are to prevent HPV infection by vaccination before the onset of sexual activity and to detect HPV infection in women older than 30 years. This article reviews CC prevention and early detection methods, discusses relevant evidence to support a change in Chile and presents an innovation proposal. A strategy of primary screening based on HPV detection followed by triage of HPV-positive women by colposcopy in primary care or by cytological or molecular reflex testing is proposed. Due to the existence in Chile of a well-organized nationwide CC prevention program, the replacement of a low-sensitivity screening test such as the Papanicolau test with a highly sensitive one such as HPV detection, could quickly improve the effectiveness of the program. The program also has a network of personnel qualified to conduct naked-eye inspections of the cervix, who could easily be trained to perform triage colposcopy. The incorporation of new prevention strategies could reduce the deaths of Chilean women and correct inequities.

  12. Instantaneous crack detection under changing operational and environmental variations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Seung Bum; Sohn, Hoon

    2007-04-01

    A new methodology of guided wave based nondestructive testing (NDT) is developed to detect crack damage in a thin metal structure without using prior baseline data or a predetermined decision boundary. In conventional guided wave based techniques, damage is often identified by comparing the "current" data obtained from a potentially damaged condition of a structure with the "past" baseline data collected at the pristine condition of the structure. However, it has been reported that this type of pattern comparison with the baseline data can lead to increased false alarms due to its susceptibility to varying operational and environmental conditions of the structure. To develop a more robust damage diagnosis technique, a new concept of NDT is conceived so that cracks can be detected even when the system being monitored is subjected to changing operational and environmental conditions. The proposed NDT technique utilizes the polarization characteristics of the piezoelectric wafers attached on the both sides of the thin metal structure. Crack formation creates Lamb wave mode conversion due to a sudden change in the thickness of the structure. Then, the proposed technique instantly detects the appearance of the crack by extracting this mode conversion from the measured Lamb waves, and the threshold value from damage classification is also obtained only from the current data set. Numerical and experimental results are presented to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed technique to instantaneous crack detection.

  13. Multiscale object-oriented change detection over urban areas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Jianmei; Li, Deren

    2006-10-01

    Urban growth induces urban spatial expansion in many cities in China. There is a great need for up-to-date information for effective urban decision-making and sustainable development. Many researches have demonstrated that satellite images, especial high resolution images, are very suitable for urban growth studies. However, change detection technique is the key to keep current with the rapid urban growth rate, taking advantage of tremendous amounts of satellite data. In this paper, a multi-scale object-oriented change detection approach integrating GIS and remote sensing is introduced. Firstly, a subset of image is cropped based on existing parcel boundaries stored in GIS database, then a multi-scale watershed transform is carried out to obtain the image objects. The image objects are classified into different land cover types by supervised classification based on their spectral, geometry and texture attributes. Finally a rule-based system is set up to judge every parcel one by one whether or not change happened comparing to existing GIS land use types. In order to verify the application validity of the presented methodology, the rural-urban fringe of Shanghai in China with the support of QuickBird date and GIS is tested, the result shown that it is effective to detect illegal land use parcel.

  14. Ice Sheet Change Detection by Satellite Image Differencing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bindschadler, Robert A.; Scambos, Ted A.; Choi, Hyeungu; Haran, Terry M.

    2010-01-01

    Differencing of digital satellite image pairs highlights subtle changes in near-identical scenes of Earth surfaces. Using the mathematical relationships relevant to photoclinometry, we examine the effectiveness of this method for the study of localized ice sheet surface topography changes using numerical experiments. We then test these results by differencing images of several regions in West Antarctica, including some where changes have previously been identified in altimeter profiles. The technique works well with coregistered images having low noise, high radiometric sensitivity, and near-identical solar illumination geometry. Clouds and frosts detract from resolving surface features. The ETM(plus) sensor on Landsat-7, ALI sensor on EO-1, and MODIS sensor on the Aqua and Terra satellite platforms all have potential for detecting localized topographic changes such as shifting dunes, surface inflation and deflation features associated with sub-glacial lake fill-drain events, or grounding line changes. Availability and frequency of MODIS images favor this sensor for wide application, and using it, we demonstrate both qualitative identification of changes in topography and quantitative mapping of slope and elevation changes.

  15. Change Detection Based on Persistent Scatterer Interferometry - a New Method of Monitoring Building Changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data Sy