Science.gov

Sample records for abrupt change detection

  1. Detection of abrupt changes in dynamic systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Willsky, A. S.

    1984-01-01

    Some of the basic ideas associated with the detection of abrupt changes in dynamic systems are presented. Multiple filter-based techniques and residual-based method and the multiple model and generalized likelihood ratio methods are considered. Issues such as the effect of unknown onset time on algorithm complexity and structure and robustness to model uncertainty are discussed.

  2. Detecting abrupt dynamic change based on changes in the fractal properties of spatial images

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Qunqun; He, Wenping; Gu, Bin; Jiang, Yundi

    2016-08-01

    Many abrupt climate change events often cannot be detected timely by conventional abrupt detection methods until a few years after these events have occurred. The reason for this lag in detection is that abundant and long-term observational data are required for accurate abrupt change detection by these methods, especially for the detection of a regime shift. So, these methods cannot help us understand and forecast the evolution of the climate system in a timely manner. Obviously, spatial images, generated by a coupled spatiotemporal dynamical model, contain more information about a dynamic system than a single time series, and we find that spatial images show the fractal properties. The fractal properties of spatial images can be quantitatively characterized by the Hurst exponent, which can be estimated by two-dimensional detrended fluctuation analysis (TD-DFA). Based on this, TD-DFA is used to detect an abrupt dynamic change of a coupled spatiotemporal model. The results show that the TD-DFA method can effectively detect abrupt parameter changes in the coupled model by monitoring the changing in the fractal properties of spatial images. The present method provides a new way for abrupt dynamic change detection, which can achieve timely and efficient abrupt change detection results.

  3. Detecting and isolating abrupt changes in linear switching systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nazari, Sohail; Zhao, Qing; Huang, Biao

    2015-04-01

    In this paper, a novel fault detection and isolation (FDI) method for switching linear systems is developed. All input and output signals are assumed to be corrupted with measurement noises. In the proposed method, a 'lifted' linear model named as stochastic hybrid decoupling polynomial (SHDP) is introduced. The SHDP model governs the dynamics of the switching linear system with all different modes, and is independent of the switching sequence. The error-in-variable (EIV) representation of SHDP is derived, and is used for the fault residual generation and isolation following the well-adopted local approach. The proposed FDI method can detect and isolate the fault-induced abrupt changes in switching models' parameters without estimating the switching modes. Furthermore, in this paper, the analytical expressions of the gradient vector and Hessian matrix are obtained based on the EIV SHDP formulation, so that they can be used to implement the online fault detection scheme. The performance of the proposed method is then illustrated by simulation examples.

  4. Detecting Abrupt Changes in a Piecewise Locally Stationary Time Series

    PubMed Central

    Last, Michael; Shumway, Robert

    2007-01-01

    Non-stationary time series arise in many settings, such as seismology, speech-processing, and finance. In many of these settings we are interested in points where a model of local stationarity is violated. We consider the problem of how to detect these change-points, which we identify by finding sharp changes in the time-varying power spectrum. Several different methods are considered, and we find that the symmetrized Kullback-Leibler information discrimination performs best in simulation studies. We derive asymptotic normality of our test statistic, and consistency of estimated change-point locations. We then demonstrate the technique on the problem of detecting arrival phases in earthquakes. PMID:19190715

  5. A Fast Framework for Abrupt Change Detection Based on Binary Search Trees and Kolmogorov Statistic.

    PubMed

    Qi, Jin-Peng; Qi, Jie; Zhang, Qing

    2016-01-01

    Change-Point (CP) detection has attracted considerable attention in the fields of data mining and statistics; it is very meaningful to discuss how to quickly and efficiently detect abrupt change from large-scale bioelectric signals. Currently, most of the existing methods, like Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) statistic and so forth, are time-consuming, especially for large-scale datasets. In this paper, we propose a fast framework for abrupt change detection based on binary search trees (BSTs) and a modified KS statistic, named BSTKS (binary search trees and Kolmogorov statistic). In this method, first, two binary search trees, termed as BSTcA and BSTcD, are constructed by multilevel Haar Wavelet Transform (HWT); second, three search criteria are introduced in terms of the statistic and variance fluctuations in the diagnosed time series; last, an optimal search path is detected from the root to leaf nodes of two BSTs. The studies on both the synthetic time series samples and the real electroencephalograph (EEG) recordings indicate that the proposed BSTKS can detect abrupt change more quickly and efficiently than KS, t-statistic (t), and Singular-Spectrum Analyses (SSA) methods, with the shortest computation time, the highest hit rate, the smallest error, and the highest accuracy out of four methods. This study suggests that the proposed BSTKS is very helpful for useful information inspection on all kinds of bioelectric time series signals.

  6. A Fast Framework for Abrupt Change Detection Based on Binary Search Trees and Kolmogorov Statistic

    PubMed Central

    Qi, Jin-Peng; Qi, Jie; Zhang, Qing

    2016-01-01

    Change-Point (CP) detection has attracted considerable attention in the fields of data mining and statistics; it is very meaningful to discuss how to quickly and efficiently detect abrupt change from large-scale bioelectric signals. Currently, most of the existing methods, like Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) statistic and so forth, are time-consuming, especially for large-scale datasets. In this paper, we propose a fast framework for abrupt change detection based on binary search trees (BSTs) and a modified KS statistic, named BSTKS (binary search trees and Kolmogorov statistic). In this method, first, two binary search trees, termed as BSTcA and BSTcD, are constructed by multilevel Haar Wavelet Transform (HWT); second, three search criteria are introduced in terms of the statistic and variance fluctuations in the diagnosed time series; last, an optimal search path is detected from the root to leaf nodes of two BSTs. The studies on both the synthetic time series samples and the real electroencephalograph (EEG) recordings indicate that the proposed BSTKS can detect abrupt change more quickly and efficiently than KS, t-statistic (t), and Singular-Spectrum Analyses (SSA) methods, with the shortest computation time, the highest hit rate, the smallest error, and the highest accuracy out of four methods. This study suggests that the proposed BSTKS is very helpful for useful information inspection on all kinds of bioelectric time series signals. PMID:27413364

  7. An automatic multi-lead electrocardiogram segmentation algorithm based on abrupt change detection.

    PubMed

    Illanes-Manriquez, Alfredo

    2010-01-01

    Automatic detection of electrocardiogram (ECG) waves provides important information for cardiac disease diagnosis. In this paper a new algorithm is proposed for automatic ECG segmentation based on multi-lead ECG processing. Two auxiliary signals are computed from the first and second derivatives of several ECG leads signals. One auxiliary signal is used for R peak detection and the other for ECG waves delimitation. A statistical hypothesis testing is finally applied to one of the auxiliary signals in order to detect abrupt mean changes. Preliminary experimental results show that the detected mean changes instants coincide with the boundaries of the ECG waves.

  8. Automated detection of sperm whale sounds as a function of abrupt changes in sound intensity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walker, Christopher D.; Rayborn, Grayson H.; Brack, Benjamin A.; Kuczaj, Stan A.; Paulos, Robin L.

    2003-04-01

    An algorithm designed to detect abrupt changes in sound intensity was developed and used to identify and count sperm whale vocalizations and to measure boat noise. The algorithm is a MATLAB routine that counts the number of occurrences for which the change in intensity level exceeds a threshold. The algorithm also permits the setting of a ``dead time'' interval to prevent the counting of multiple pulses within a single sperm whale click. This algorithm was used to analyze digitally sampled recordings of ambient noise obtained from the Gulf of Mexico using near bottom mounted EARS buoys deployed as part of the Littoral Acoustic Demonstration Center experiment. Because the background in these data varied slowly, the result of the application of the algorithm was automated detection of sperm whale clicks and creaks with results that agreed well with those obtained by trained human listeners. [Research supported by ONR.

  9. Wavelet-based detection of abrupt changes in natural frequencies of time-variant systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dziedziech, K.; Staszewski, W. J.; Basu, B.; Uhl, T.

    2015-12-01

    Detection of abrupt changes in natural frequencies from vibration responses of time-variant systems is a challenging task due to the complex nature of physics involved. It is clear that the problem needs to be analysed in the combined time-frequency domain. The paper proposes an application of the input-output wavelet-based Frequency Response Function for this analysis. The major focus and challenge relate to ridge extraction of the above time-frequency characteristics. It is well known that classical ridge extraction procedures lead to ridges that are smooth. However, this property is not desired when abrupt changes in the dynamics are considered. The methods presented in the paper are illustrated using simulated and experimental multi-degree-of-freedom systems. The results are compared with the classical Frequency Response Function and with the output only analysis based on the wavelet auto-power response spectrum. The results show that the proposed method captures correctly the dynamics of the analysed time-variant systems.

  10. A novel method for detecting abrupt dynamic change based on the changing Hurst exponent of spatial images

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Wen-Ping; Liu, Qun-Qun; Gu, Bin; Zhao, Shan-Shan

    2016-10-01

    The climate system is a classical spatiotemporal evolutionary dynamic system with spatiotemporal correlation characteristics. Based on this, two-dimensional detrended fluctuation analysis (TD-DFA) is used to estimate the Hurst exponent of two-dimensional images. Then, we monitored the change of the Hurst exponent of the images to identify an abrupt dynamic change. We tested the performance of this method with a coupled spatiotemporal dynamic model and found that it works well. The changes in the Hurst exponents of the spatial images are stable when there is no dynamic change in the system, but there will be a clear non-stationary change of the Hurst exponents; for example, the abrupt mean values change if the dynamics of the system change. Thus, the TD-DFA method is suitable for detecting an abrupt dynamic change from natural and artificial images. The spatial images of the NCEP reanalysis of the daily average temperature exhibited fractality. Based on this, we found three non-stationary changes in the Hurst exponents for the NCEP reanalysis of the daily average temperature or for the annual average temperature in the region (60°S-60°N). It can be concluded that the climate system may have incurred three dynamic changes since 1961 on decadal timescales, i.e., in approximately the mid-1970s, the mid-1980s, and between the late 1990s and the early 2000s.

  11. A comparison of two methods for detecting abrupt changes in the variance of climatic time series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodionov, Sergei N.

    2016-06-01

    Two methods for detecting abrupt shifts in the variance - Integrated Cumulative Sum of Squares (ICSS) and Sequential Regime Shift Detector (SRSD) - have been compared on both synthetic and observed time series. In Monte Carlo experiments, SRSD outperformed ICSS in the overwhelming majority of the modeled scenarios with different sequences of variance regimes. The SRSD advantage was particularly apparent in the case of outliers in the series. On the other hand, SRSD has more parameters to adjust than ICSS, which requires more experience from the user in order to select those parameters properly. Therefore, ICSS can serve as a good starting point of a regime shift analysis. When tested on climatic time series, in most cases both methods detected the same change points in the longer series (252-787 monthly values). The only exception was the Arctic Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) series, when ICSS found one extra change point that appeared to be spurious. As for the shorter time series (66-136 yearly values), ICSS failed to detect any change points even when the variance doubled or tripled from one regime to another. For these time series, SRSD is recommended. Interestingly, all the climatic time series tested, from the Arctic to the tropics, had one thing in common: the last shift detected in each of these series was toward a high-variance regime. This is consistent with other findings of increased climate variability in recent decades.

  12. Implications of abrupt climate change.

    PubMed

    Alley, Richard B

    2004-01-01

    Records of past climates contained in ice cores, ocean sediments, and other archives show that large, abrupt, widespread climate changes have occurred repeatedly in the past. These changes were especially prominent during the cooling into and warming out of the last ice age, but persisted into the modern warm interval. Changes have especially affected water availability in warm regions and temperature in cold regions, but have affected almost all climatic variables across much or all of the Earth. Impacts of climate changes are smaller if the changes are slower or more-expected. The rapidity of abrupt climate changes, together with the difficulty of predicting such changes, means that impacts on the health of humans, economies and ecosystems will be larger if abrupt climate changes occur. Most projections of future climate include only gradual changes, whereas paleoclimatic data plus models indicate that abrupt changes remain possible; thus, policy is being made based on a view of the future that may be optimistic.

  13. Comparison of performance between rescaled range analysis and rescaled variance analysis in detecting abrupt dynamic change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Wen-Ping; Liu, Qun-Qun; Jiang, Yun-Di; Lu, Ying

    2015-04-01

    In the present paper, a comparison of the performance between moving cutting data-rescaled range analysis (MC-R/S) and moving cutting data-rescaled variance analysis (MC-V/S) is made. The results clearly indicate that the operating efficiency of the MC-R/S algorithm is higher than that of the MC-V/S algorithm. In our numerical test, the computer time consumed by MC-V/S is approximately 25 times that by MC-R/S for an identical window size in artificial data. Except for the difference in operating efficiency, there are no significant differences in performance between MC-R/S and MC-V/S for the abrupt dynamic change detection. MC-R/S and MC-V/S both display some degree of anti-noise ability. However, it is important to consider the influences of strong noise on the detection results of MC-R/S and MC-V/S in practical application processes. Project supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2012CB955902) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41275074, 41475073, and 41175084).

  14. Implications of abrupt climate change.

    PubMed Central

    Alley, Richard B.

    2004-01-01

    Records of past climates contained in ice cores, ocean sediments, and other archives show that large, abrupt, widespread climate changes have occurred repeatedly in the past. These changes were especially prominent during the cooling into and warming out of the last ice age, but persisted into the modern warm interval. Changes have especially affected water availability in warm regions and temperature in cold regions, but have affected almost all climatic variables across much or all of the Earth. Impacts of climate changes are smaller if the changes are slower or more-expected. The rapidity of abrupt climate changes, together with the difficulty of predicting such changes, means that impacts on the health of humans, economies and ecosystems will be larger if abrupt climate changes occur. Most projections of future climate include only gradual changes, whereas paleoclimatic data plus models indicate that abrupt changes remain possible; thus, policy is being made based on a view of the future that may be optimistic. PMID:17060975

  15. A method for detection of abrupt changes in the financial market combining wavelet decomposition and correlation graphs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caetano, Marco Antonio Leonel; Yoneyama, Takashi

    2012-10-01

    The objective of this work is to propose a new methodology to detect the imminence of abrupt changes in the stock market by combining a numerical indicator based on the wavelet decomposition technique with a measure of the interdependency of the markets using graph theory. While the indicator based on wavelet decomposition is based on a single time series, an approach based on network representation can provide information on the interdependency of the various markets. More specifically, the stock market indices are associated with nodes of a network and the correlation between pairs of nodes with links. Results from the theory of graphs can then be used to indicate numerically the connectivity of this network. Experimentations with a variety of financial time series shows that the connectivity varies as trends of the financial time series varies. Combining the indicator based on the wavelet decomposition with the proposed measure of the connectivity of the network, it was possible to refine the authors previous results in terms of detecting abrupt changes in the stock market. In order to illustrate the methodology a case study involving twelve stock market indices was presented.

  16. Can ice sheets trigger abrupt climatic change?

    SciTech Connect

    Hughes, T.

    1996-11-01

    The discovery in recent years of abrupt climatic changes in climate proxy records from Greenland ice cores and North Atlantic sediment cores, and from other sites around the world, has diverted attention from gradual insolation changes caused by Earth`s orbital variations to more rapid processes on Earth`s surface as forcing Quaternary climatic change. In particular, forcing by ice sheets has been quantified for a major ice stream that drained the Laurentide Ice Sheet along Hudson Strait. The history of these recent discoveries leading to an interest in ice sheets is reviewed, and a case is made that ice sheets may drive abrupt climatic change that is virtually synchronous worldwide. Attention is focused on abrupt inception and termination of a Quaternary glaciation cycle, abrupt changes recorded as stadials and interstadials within the cycle, abrupt changes in ice streams that trigger stadials and interstadials, and abrupt changes in the Laurentide Ice Sheet linked to effectively simultaneous abrupt changes in its ice streams. Remaining work needed to quantify further these changes is discussed. 90 refs., 14 figs.

  17. Abrupt climate change and extinction events

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crowley, Thomas J.

    1988-01-01

    There is a growing body of theoretical and empirical support for the concept of instabilities in the climate system, and indications that abrupt climate change may in some cases contribute to abrupt extinctions. Theoretical indications of instabilities can be found in a broad spectrum of climate models (energy balance models, a thermohaline model of deep-water circulation, atmospheric general circulation models, and coupled ocean-atmosphere models). Abrupt transitions can be of several types and affect the environment in different ways. There is increasing evidence for abrupt climate change in the geologic record and involves both interglacial-glacial scale transitions and the longer-term evolution of climate over the last 100 million years. Records from the Cenozoic clearly show that the long-term trend is characterized by numerous abrupt steps where the system appears to be rapidly moving to a new equilibrium state. The long-term trend probably is due to changes associated with plate tectonic processes, but the abrupt steps most likely reflect instabilities in the climate system as the slowly changing boundary conditions caused the climate to reach some threshold critical point. A more detailed analysis of abrupt steps comes from high-resolution studies of glacial-interglacial fluctuations in the Pleistocene. Comparison of climate transitions with the extinction record indicates that many climate and biotic transitions coincide. The Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction is not a candidate for an extinction event due to instabilities in the climate system. It is quite possible that more detailed comparisons and analysis will indicate some flaws in the climate instability-extinction hypothesis, but at present it appears to be a viable candidate as an alternate mechanism for causing abrupt environmental changes and extinctions.

  18. Abrupt climate change: can society cope?

    PubMed

    Hulme, Mike

    2003-09-15

    Consideration of abrupt climate change has generally been incorporated neither in analyses of climate-change impacts nor in the design of climate adaptation strategies. Yet the possibility of abrupt climate change triggered by human perturbation of the climate system is used to support the position of both those who urge stronger and earlier mitigative action than is currently being contemplated and those who argue that the unknowns in the Earth system are too large to justify such early action. This paper explores the question of abrupt climate change in terms of its potential implications for society, focusing on the UK and northwest Europe in particular. The nature of abrupt climate change and the different ways in which it has been defined and perceived are examined. Using the example of the collapse of the thermohaline circulation (THC), the suggested implications for society of abrupt climate change are reviewed; previous work has been largely speculative and has generally considered the implications only from economic and ecological perspectives. Some observations about the implications from a more social and behavioural science perspective are made. If abrupt climate change simply implies changes in the occurrence or intensity of extreme weather events, or an accelerated unidirectional change in climate, the design of adaptation to climate change can proceed within the existing paradigm, with appropriate adjustments. Limits to adaptation in some sectors or regions may be reached, and the costs of appropriate adaptive behaviour may be large, but strategy can develop on the basis of a predicted long-term unidirectional change in climate. It would be more challenging, however, if abrupt climate change implied a directional change in climate, as, for example, may well occur in northwest Europe following a collapse of the THC. There are two fundamental problems for society associated with such an outcome: first, the future changes in climate currently being

  19. Abrupt tropical climate change: past and present.

    PubMed

    Thompson, Lonnie G; Mosley-Thompson, Ellen; Brecher, Henry; Davis, Mary; León, Blanca; Les, Don; Lin, Ping-Nan; Mashiotta, Tracy; Mountain, Keith

    2006-07-11

    Three lines of evidence for abrupt tropical climate change, both past and present, are presented. First, annually and decadally averaged delta(18)O and net mass-balance histories for the last 400 and 2,000 yr, respectively, demonstrate that the current warming at high elevations in the mid- to low latitudes is unprecedented for at least the last 2 millennia. Second, the continuing retreat of most mid- to low-latitude glaciers, many having persisted for thousands of years, signals a recent and abrupt change in the Earth's climate system. Finally, rooted, soft-bodied wetland plants, now exposed along the margins as the Quelccaya ice cap (Peru) retreats, have been radiocarbon dated and, when coupled with other widespread proxy evidence, provide strong evidence for an abrupt mid-Holocene climate event that marked the transition from early Holocene (pre-5,000-yr-B.P.) conditions to cooler, late Holocene (post-5,000-yr-B.P.) conditions. This abrupt event, approximately 5,200 yr ago, was widespread and spatially coherent through much of the tropics and was coincident with structural changes in several civilizations. These three lines of evidence argue that the present warming and associated glacier retreat are unprecedented in some areas for at least 5,200 yr. The ongoing global-scale, rapid retreat of mountain glaciers is not only contributing to global sea-level rise but also threatening freshwater supplies in many of the world's most populous regions.

  20. Abrupt tropical climate change: Past and present

    PubMed Central

    Thompson, Lonnie G.; Mosley-Thompson, Ellen; Brecher, Henry; Davis, Mary; León, Blanca; Les, Don; Lin, Ping-Nan; Mashiotta, Tracy; Mountain, Keith

    2006-01-01

    Three lines of evidence for abrupt tropical climate change, both past and present, are presented. First, annually and decadally averaged δ18O and net mass-balance histories for the last 400 and 2,000 yr, respectively, demonstrate that the current warming at high elevations in the mid- to low latitudes is unprecedented for at least the last 2 millennia. Second, the continuing retreat of most mid- to low-latitude glaciers, many having persisted for thousands of years, signals a recent and abrupt change in the Earth’s climate system. Finally, rooted, soft-bodied wetland plants, now exposed along the margins as the Quelccaya ice cap (Peru) retreats, have been radiocarbon dated and, when coupled with other widespread proxy evidence, provide strong evidence for an abrupt mid-Holocene climate event that marked the transition from early Holocene (pre-5,000-yr-B.P.) conditions to cooler, late Holocene (post-5,000-yr-B.P.) conditions. This abrupt event, ≈5,200 yr ago, was widespread and spatially coherent through much of the tropics and was coincident with structural changes in several civilizations. These three lines of evidence argue that the present warming and associated glacier retreat are unprecedented in some areas for at least 5,200 yr. The ongoing global-scale, rapid retreat of mountain glaciers is not only contributing to global sea-level rise but also threatening freshwater supplies in many of the world’s most populous regions. PMID:16815970

  1. Weird Weather: Large Abrupt Widespread Climate Changes

    SciTech Connect

    Alley, Richard B.

    2001-01-24

    Ice-core records and other paleoclimatic indicators show that large (up to 10 degrees C), abrupt (in about 10 years), widespread (hemispheric to global) climate changes have been common for much of the last 100,000 years and beyond, but rare during the most recent few millennia. Changes in the coupled ocean-atmosphere system with a center of activity in the north Atlantic probably have been important, but several hypotheses remain possible including solar influence and a stochastically resonant interaction with changing freshwater fluxes. Our current understanding does not allow us to exclude the possibility that human or natural processes could 'flip the switch' of another abrupt change in the future.

  2. Abrupt changes in rainfall during the twentieth century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Narisma, Gemma T.; Foley, Jonathan A.; Licker, Rachel; Ramankutty, Navin

    2007-03-01

    Complex interactions in the climate system can give rise to strong positive feedback mechanisms that may lead to sudden climatic changes. The prolonged Sahel drought and the Dust Bowl are examples of 20th century abrupt climatic changes that had serious effects on ecosystems and societies. Here we analyze global historical rainfall observations to detect regions that have undergone large, sudden decreases in rainfall. Our results show that in the 20th century about 30 regions in the world have experienced such changes. These events are statistically significant at the 99% level, are persistent for at least ten years, and most have magnitudes of change that are 10% lower than the climatological normal (1901-2000 rainfall average). This analysis illustrates the extent and magnitude of abrupt climate changes across the globe during the 20th century and may be used for studying the dynamics of and the mechanisms behind these abrupt changes.

  3. Abrupt climate change: Mechanisms, patterns, and impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schultz, Colin

    2012-08-01

    In the span of only a few decades, the global temperature can soar by more than a dozen degrees Celsius, a feat that 20 years ago was considered improbable, if not impossible. But recent research in the nascent field of rapid climate change has upended the dominant views of decades past. Focusing primarily on events during and after the most recent glaciation, from 80,000 years ago, the AGU monograph Abrupt Climate Change: Mechanisms, Patterns, and Impacts, edited by Harunur Rashid, Leonid Polyak, and Ellen Mosley-Thompson, explores the transient climate transitions that were only recently uncovered in climate proxies around the world. In this interview, Eos talks to Harunur Rashid about piecing together ancient climes, the effect of abrupt change on historical civilizations, and why younger researchers may be more worried about modern warming than their teachers.

  4. Abrupt climate-independent fire regime changes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pausas, Juli G.; Keeley, Jon E.

    2014-01-01

    Wildfires have played a determining role in distribution, composition and structure of many ecosystems worldwide and climatic changes are widely considered to be a major driver of future fire regime changes. However, forecasting future climatic change induced impacts on fire regimes will require a clearer understanding of other drivers of abrupt fire regime changes. Here, we focus on evidence from different environmental and temporal settings of fire regimes changes that are not directly attributed to climatic changes. We review key cases of these abrupt fire regime changes at different spatial and temporal scales, including those directly driven (i) by fauna, (ii) by invasive plant species, and (iii) by socio-economic and policy changes. All these drivers might generate non-linear effects of landscape changes in fuel structure; that is, they generate fuel changes that can cross thresholds of landscape continuity, and thus drastically change fire activity. Although climatic changes might contribute to some of these changes, there are also many instances that are not primarily linked to climatic shifts. Understanding the mechanism driving fire regime changes should contribute to our ability to better assess future fire regimes.

  5. Abrupt changes in rainfall during the twentieth century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Narisma, G.; Foley, J.; Licker, R.; Ramankutty, N.

    2007-12-01

    A sudden change in climate is brought about by complex interactions in the climate system, including interactions between land and atmosphere, that can give rise to strong positive feedback mechanisms. Paleoclimatic studies have shown that abrupt climate changes have happened in the geologic past. Studies of future climate change under global warming scenarios indicate the possibility of the sudden collapse of the thermohaline circulation, which will have major implications for the climate of Europe. However, abrupt climatic changes are not events of the geologic past or a computer-simulated future: they have occurred in recent history and have had serious consequences on society and the environment. The prolonged Sahel drought in the late 1960s and the Dust Bowl of the 1930s are examples of abrupt climatic changes of the twentieth century. Apart from these events, however, there has been no systematic survey of recent climate history to determine the prevalence of abrupt climatic changes. Given the potential cost of these abrupt changes, there is a need to investigate historical records for evidence of other sudden climatic changes in the more recent past. Here we analyze the Climate Research Unit global historical rainfall observations (covering the years 1901-2000) using wavelet analysis to detect regions that have undergone large, sudden decreases in rainfall. We show that in the twentieth century, aside from the Sahel and the US midwest, at least 30 regions in the world have experienced sudden climatic changes. These events are statistically significant at the 99 percent level, are persistent for at least ten years, and most have magnitudes of change that are 10 percent lower than the climatological normal (1901-2000 rainfall average). We also illustrate some of the potential consequences of these abrupt changes and show that these events had major impacts on social and environmental conditions. Interestingly, these regions of abrupt precipitation changes are

  6. Approaching the Edge of Abrupt Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramadhin, C.; Yi, C.

    2015-12-01

    The phenomenon of Abrupt Climate Change (ACC) became evident as paleoclimate data analyses began revealing that Earth's climate has the ability to rapidly switch from one state to the next in just a few decades after thresholds are crossed. Previously paleo-climatologists thought these switches were gradual but now there is growing concern to identify thresholds and the dominant feedback mechanisms that propel systems toward thresholds. Current human civilization relies heavily on climate stability and ACC threatens immense disruption with potentially disastrous consequences for all ecosystems. Therefore, prediction of the climate system's approach to threshold values would prove vital for the resilience of civilization through development of appropriate adaptation strategies when that shift occurs. Numerous studies now establish that earth systems are experiencing dramatic changes both by system interactions and anthropogenic sources adding urgency for comprehensive knowledge of tipping point identification. Despite this, predictions are difficult due to the immensity of interactions among feedback mechanisms. In this paper, we attempt to narrow this broad spectrum of critical feedback mechanisms by reviewing several publications on role of feedbacks in initiating past climate transitions establishing the most critical ones and significance in current climate changes. Using a compilation of paleoclimate datasets we compared the rates of deglaciations with that of glacial inceptions, which are approximately 5-10 times slower. We hypothesize that the critical feedbacks are unique to each type of transition such that warmings are dominated by the ice-albedo feedback while coolings are a combination of temperature - CO2 and temperature-precipitation followed by the ice-albedo feedbacks. Additionally, we propose the existence of a commonality in the dominant trigger feedbacks for astronomical and millennial timescale abrupt climate shifts and as such future studies

  7. The Arctic Grand Challenge: Abrupt Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilkniss, P. E.

    2003-12-01

    Trouble in polar paradise (Science, 08/30/02), significant changes in the Arctic environment are scientifically documented (R.E. Moritz et al. ibid.). More trouble, lots more, "abrupt climate change," (R. B. Alley, et al. Science 03/28/03). R. Corell, Arctic Climate Impact Assessment team (ACIA), "If you want to see what will happen in the rest of the world 25 years from now just look what's happening in the Arctic," (Arctic Council meeting, Iceland, 08/03). What to do? Make abrupt Arctic climate change a grand challenge for the IPY-4 and beyond! Scientifically:Describe the "state" of the Arctic climate system as succinctly as possible and accept it as the point of departure.Develop a hypothesis and criteria what constitutes "abrupt climate change," in the Arctic that can be tested with observations. Observations: Bring to bear existing observations and coordinate new investments in observations through an IPY-4 scientific management committee. Make the new Barrow, Alaska, Global Climate Change Research Facility a major U.S. contribution and focal point for the IPY-4 in the U.S Arctic. Arctic populations, Native peoples: The people of the North are living already, daily, with wrenching change, encroaching on their habitats and cultures. For them "the earth is faster now," (I. Krupnik and D. Jolly, ARCUS, 2002). From a political, economic, social and entirely realistic perspective, an Arctic grand challenge without the total integration of the Native peoples in this effort cannot succeed. Therefore: Communications must be established, and the respective Native entities must be approached with the determination to create well founded, well functioning, enduring partnerships. In the U.S. Arctic, Barrow with its long history of involvement and active support of science and with the new global climate change research facility should be the focal point of choice Private industry: Resource extraction in the Arctic followed by oil and gas consumption, return the combustion

  8. Detecting gradual and abrupt changes in water quality time series in response to regional payment programs for watershed services in an agricultural area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Tian; Lu, Yan; Cui, Yanping; Luo, Yabo; Wang, Min; Meng, Wei; Zhang, Kaijie; Zhao, Feifei

    2015-06-01

    Market-based watershed protection instruments can effectively improve water quality at various catchment scales. Two payments for watershed services (PWS) programs for water quality improvement have been successively implemented in the Huai River catchment and its sub-watershed, the Shaying River catchment, in Henan Province since 2009. To detect changes in water quality in response to PWS schemes, nonparametric statistical approaches were used to analyze gradual and abrupt trends in water quality, focusing on chemical oxygen demand (COD) and ammonia-nitrogen (NH3-N) at 26 monitoring stations in the Huai River watershed during 2006-2013. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and the Theil-Sen estimator were used to identify trends and their magnitudes in weekly water quality observations and the Pettitt test was applied to change-point analysis of water quality time series. We found decreasing concentration trends in the weekly water quality data set in this catchment, with water quality at most stations affected by the PWS schemes. The COD and NH3-N concentrations decreased at 26 stations by an average of 0.05 mg/L wk and 0.01 mg/L wk, respectively, from 2006 to 2013. Meanwhile, the mean concentrations of COD and NH3-N decreased at the 26 stations by an average of 18.03 mg/L and 4.82 mg/L, respectively, after the abrupt change points of the time-series trends of these two pollutants. We also estimated annual reductions in COD and NH3-N for each station based on average flow observations using the Theil-Sen approach along with the resulting economic benefits from 2009 to 2010. The COD and NH3-N reductions were 14604.50 and 6213.25 t/y, respectively, in the Huai River catchment in Henan Province. The total economic benefits of reductions in these two pollutants were 769.71 million ¥ in 2009 and 2010, accounting for 0.08% and 0.06%, respectively, of the GDP in the entire Huai River watershed of Henan Province. These results provide new insights into the linkages

  9. The Role of the Tropics in Abrupt Climate Changes

    SciTech Connect

    Fedorov, Alexey

    2013-12-07

    Topics addressed include: abrupt climate changes and ocean circulation in the tropics; what controls the ocean thermal structure in the tropics; a permanent El Niño in paleoclimates; the energetics of the tropical ocean.

  10. Sensitivity and Thresholds of Ecosystems to Abrupt Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peteet, D. M.; Peteet, D. M.

    2001-12-01

    Rapid vegetational change is a hallmark of past abrupt climate change, as evidenced from Younger Dryas records in Europe, eastern North America, and the Pacific North American rim. The potential response of future ecosystems to abrupt climate change is targeted, with a focus on particular changes in the hydrological cycle. The vulnerability of ecosystems is notable when particular shifts cross thresholds of precipitation and temperature, as many plants and animals are adapted to specific climatic "windows". Significant forest species compositional changes occur at ecotonal boundaries, which are often the first locations to record a climatic response. Historical forest declines have been linked to stress, and even Pleistocene extinctions have been associated with human interaction at times of rapid climatic shifts. Environmental extremes are risky for reproductive stages, and result in nonlinearities. The role of humans in association with abrupt climate change suggests that many ecosystems may cross thresholds from which they will find it difficult to recover. Sectors particularly vulnerable will be reviewed.

  11. International policy implications of abrupt climate change scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Molitor, M.R.

    1997-12-31

    New theoretical and empirical evidence supports the view that in the recent past [Holocene] abrupt climate changes occurred over very short [decadal] time periods. One leading possibility of future changes involves the North Atlantic Ocean conveyor that transfers warm surface waters from the equator to northern latitudes and helps maintain Europe`s climate. The predicted abrupt climate change scenario theorizes that the conveyor may be modified as a result of disruption of the thermohaline circulation driving North, Atlantic Deep Water. This would lead, the theory contends, to a rapid cooling of Europe`s climate. In light of the EPCC`s 1995 Second Assessment Report conclusion that there is a {open_quotes}discernible{close_quotes} human influence on the global climate system, there are many emerging questions concerning possible abrupt climate change scenarios.

  12. Sea-ice switches and abrupt climate change.

    PubMed

    Gildor, Hezi; Tziperman, Eli

    2003-09-15

    We propose that past abrupt climate changes were probably a result of rapid and extensive variations in sea-ice cover. We explain why this seems a perhaps more likely explanation than a purely thermohaline circulation mechanism. We emphasize that because of the significant influence of sea ice on the climate system, it seems that high priority should be given to developing ways for reconstructing high-resolution (in space and time) sea-ice extent for past climate-change events. If proxy data can confirm that sea ice was indeed the major player in past abrupt climate-change events, it seems less likely that such dramatic abrupt changes will occur due to global warming, when extensive sea-ice cover will not be present.

  13. Abrupt climate change and thermohaline circulation: mechanisms and predictability.

    PubMed

    Marotzke, J

    2000-02-15

    The ocean's thermohaline circulation has long been recognized as potentially unstable and has consequently been invoked as a potential cause of abrupt climate change on all timescales of decades and longer. However, fundamental aspects of thermohaline circulation changes remain poorly understood.

  14. Evidence for abrupt climate changes in annually laminated marine sediments.

    PubMed

    Kemp, Alan E S

    2003-09-15

    Annually laminated sediments from marine or lacustrine settings represent valuable high-resolution archives of climate change that record variation due to changing precipitation and run-off from land or variation in biological productivity and flux in the water column. Because of their annual resolution such sediments may capture abrupt changes of interannual to decadal scales rivaling corals and ice cores in resolution. Laminated sediments often occur intermittently in the sediment column, and the onset and cessation of laminae commonly record the abrupt crossing of thresholds related to climate change, for example, in the degree of oxygenation of bottom waters. Such records from marginal basins and continental margins have been pivotal in demonstrating that abrupt changes hitherto documented only in high-latitude ice cores are synchronous with climatic change at low latitudes. These insights into global teleconnections have improved our understanding of the mechanisms of rapid climate change. In deep-sea settings, the discovery of the episodic occurrence of laminated diatom-rich sediments in the Equatorial Pacific and Southern Ocean provides evidence for massive climate-related biogeochemical excursions tied to abrupt changes in the input, distribution and availability of nutrients in the oceans.

  15. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and Abrupt Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lynch-Stieglitz, Jean

    2017-01-01

    Abrupt changes in climate have occurred in many locations around the globe over the last glacial cycle, with pronounced temperature swings on timescales of decades or less in the North Atlantic. The global pattern of these changes suggests that they reflect variability in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). This review examines the evidence from ocean sediments for ocean circulation change over these abrupt events. The evidence for changes in the strength and structure of the AMOC associated with the Younger Dryas and many of the Heinrich events is strong. Although it has been difficult to directly document changes in the AMOC over the relatively short Dansgaard-Oeschger events, there is recent evidence supporting AMOC changes over most of these oscillations as well. The lack of direct evidence for circulation changes over the shortest events leaves open the possibility of other driving mechanisms for millennial-scale climate variability.

  16. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and Abrupt Climate Change.

    PubMed

    Lynch-Stieglitz, Jean

    2017-01-03

    Abrupt changes in climate have occurred in many locations around the globe over the last glacial cycle, with pronounced temperature swings on timescales of decades or less in the North Atlantic. The global pattern of these changes suggests that they reflect variability in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). This review examines the evidence from ocean sediments for ocean circulation change over these abrupt events. The evidence for changes in the strength and structure of the AMOC associated with the Younger Dryas and many of the Heinrich events is strong. Although it has been difficult to directly document changes in the AMOC over the relatively short Dansgaard-Oeschger events, there is recent evidence supporting AMOC changes over most of these oscillations as well. The lack of direct evidence for circulation changes over the shortest events leaves open the possibility of other driving mechanisms for millennial-scale climate variability.

  17. An abrupt change in ridge axis gravity with spreading rate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Small, Christopher; Sandwell, David T.

    1989-01-01

    A total of 44 Geosat profiles over ridges with spreading rates ranging from 14 to 155 mm/yr were analyzed. In agreement with previous studies, it is found that slow spreading ridges usually have high amplitude gravity troughs, while fast spreading ridges are characterized by low-amplitude ridge axis highs. Unexpectedly, it is found that the transition from axial trough to axial high occurs abruptly at a spreading rate of 60-70 mm/yr. Ridge axis gravity signatures are highly variable for rates less than 65 mm/yr and very uniform at higher rates. The transition of the gravity signature appears to get more abrupt than the transition of the topographic signature, suggesting an abrupt change in the style of isostatic compensation with spreading rate. Published models of ridge axis dynamics do not explain this sharp transition.

  18. The role of the thermohaline circulation in abrupt climate change.

    PubMed

    Clark, Peter U; Pisias, Nicklas G; Stocker, Thomas F; Weaver, Andrew J

    2002-02-21

    The possibility of a reduced Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to increases in greenhouse-gas concentrations has been demonstrated in a number of simulations with general circulation models of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. But it remains difficult to assess the likelihood of future changes in the thermohaline circulation, mainly owing to poorly constrained model parameterizations and uncertainties in the response of the climate system to greenhouse warming. Analyses of past abrupt climate changes help to solve these problems. Data and models both suggest that abrupt climate change during the last glaciation originated through changes in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to small changes in the hydrological cycle. Atmospheric and oceanic responses to these changes were then transmitted globally through a number of feedbacks. The palaeoclimate data and the model results also indicate that the stability of the thermohaline circulation depends on the mean climate state.

  19. Response of seafloor ecosystems to abrupt global climate change.

    PubMed

    Moffitt, Sarah E; Hill, Tessa M; Roopnarine, Peter D; Kennett, James P

    2015-04-14

    Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to decrease oceanic oxygen (O2) concentrations, with potentially significant effects on marine ecosystems. Geologically recent episodes of abrupt climatic warming provide opportunities to assess the effects of changing oxygenation on marine communities. Thus far, this knowledge has been largely restricted to investigations using Foraminifera, with little being known about ecosystem-scale responses to abrupt, climate-forced deoxygenation. We here present high-resolution records based on the first comprehensive quantitative analysis, to our knowledge, of changes in marine metazoans (Mollusca, Echinodermata, Arthropoda, and Annelida; >5,400 fossils and trace fossils) in response to the global warming associated with the last glacial to interglacial episode. The molluscan archive is dominated by extremophile taxa, including those containing endosymbiotic sulfur-oxidizing bacteria (Lucinoma aequizonatum) and those that graze on filamentous sulfur-oxidizing benthic bacterial mats (Alia permodesta). This record, from 16,100 to 3,400 y ago, demonstrates that seafloor invertebrate communities are subject to major turnover in response to relatively minor inferred changes in oxygenation (>1.5 to <0.5 mL⋅L(-1) [O2]) associated with abrupt (<100 y) warming of the eastern Pacific. The biotic turnover and recovery events within the record expand known rates of marine biological recovery by an order of magnitude, from <100 to >1,000 y, and illustrate the crucial role of climate and oceanographic change in driving long-term successional changes in ocean ecosystems.

  20. Response of seafloor ecosystems to abrupt global climate change

    PubMed Central

    Moffitt, Sarah E.; Hill, Tessa M.; Roopnarine, Peter D.; Kennett, James P.

    2015-01-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to decrease oceanic oxygen (O2) concentrations, with potentially significant effects on marine ecosystems. Geologically recent episodes of abrupt climatic warming provide opportunities to assess the effects of changing oxygenation on marine communities. Thus far, this knowledge has been largely restricted to investigations using Foraminifera, with little being known about ecosystem-scale responses to abrupt, climate-forced deoxygenation. We here present high-resolution records based on the first comprehensive quantitative analysis, to our knowledge, of changes in marine metazoans (Mollusca, Echinodermata, Arthropoda, and Annelida; >5,400 fossils and trace fossils) in response to the global warming associated with the last glacial to interglacial episode. The molluscan archive is dominated by extremophile taxa, including those containing endosymbiotic sulfur-oxidizing bacteria (Lucinoma aequizonatum) and those that graze on filamentous sulfur-oxidizing benthic bacterial mats (Alia permodesta). This record, from 16,100 to 3,400 y ago, demonstrates that seafloor invertebrate communities are subject to major turnover in response to relatively minor inferred changes in oxygenation (>1.5 to <0.5 mL⋅L−1 [O2]) associated with abrupt (<100 y) warming of the eastern Pacific. The biotic turnover and recovery events within the record expand known rates of marine biological recovery by an order of magnitude, from <100 to >1,000 y, and illustrate the crucial role of climate and oceanographic change in driving long-term successional changes in ocean ecosystems. PMID:25825727

  1. Response of seafloor ecosystems to abrupt global climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moffitt, Sarah E.; Hill, Tessa M.; Roopnarine, Peter D.; Kennett, James P.

    2015-04-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to decrease oceanic oxygen (O2) concentrations, with potentially significant effects on marine ecosystems. Geologically recent episodes of abrupt climatic warming provide opportunities to assess the effects of changing oxygenation on marine communities. Thus far, this knowledge has been largely restricted to investigations using Foraminifera, with little being known about ecosystem-scale responses to abrupt, climate-forced deoxygenation. We here present high-resolution records based on the first comprehensive quantitative analysis, to our knowledge, of changes in marine metazoans (Mollusca, Echinodermata, Arthropoda, and Annelida; >5,400 fossils and trace fossils) in response to the global warming associated with the last glacial to interglacial episode. The molluscan archive is dominated by extremophile taxa, including those containing endosymbiotic sulfur-oxidizing bacteria (Lucinoma aequizonatum) and those that graze on filamentous sulfur-oxidizing benthic bacterial mats (Alia permodesta). This record, from 16,100 to 3,400 y ago, demonstrates that seafloor invertebrate communities are subject to major turnover in response to relatively minor inferred changes in oxygenation (>1.5 to <0.5 mLṡL-1 [O2]) associated with abrupt (<100 y) warming of the eastern Pacific. The biotic turnover and recovery events within the record expand known rates of marine biological recovery by an order of magnitude, from <100 to >1,000 y, and illustrate the crucial role of climate and oceanographic change in driving long-term successional changes in ocean ecosystems.

  2. An interhemispheric mechanism for glacial abrupt climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Banderas, Rubén; Alvarez-Solas, Jorge; Robinson, Alexander; Montoya, Marisa

    2015-05-01

    The last glacial period was punctuated by abrupt climate changes that are widely considered to result from millennial-scale variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). However, the origin of these AMOC reorganizations remains poorly understood. The climatic connection between both hemispheres indicated by proxies suggests that the Southern Ocean (SO) could regulate this variability through changes in winds and atmospheric CO concentration. Here, we investigate this hypothesis using a coupled climate model forced by prescribed CO and SO wind-stress variations. We find that the AMOC exhibits an oscillatory behavior between weak and strong circulation regimes which is ultimately caused by changes in the meridional density gradient of the Atlantic Ocean. The evolution of the simulated climatic patterns matches the amplitude and timing of the largest events that occurred during the last glacial period and their widespread climatic impacts. Our results suggest the existence of an internal interhemispheric oscillation mediated by the bipolar seesaw that could promote glacial abrupt climate changes through variations in atmospheric CO levels, the strength of the SO winds and AMOC reorganizations, and provide an explanation for the pervasive Antarctic-like climate signal found in proxy records worldwide.

  3. Abrupt climate change and collapse of deep-sea ecosystems

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Yasuhara, Moriaki; Cronin, T. M.; Demenocal, P.B.; Okahashi, H.; Linsley, B.K.

    2008-01-01

    We investigated the deep-sea fossil record of benthic ostracodes during periods of rapid climate and oceanographic change over the past 20,000 years in a core from intermediate depth in the northwestern Atlantic. Results show that deep-sea benthic community "collapses" occur with faunal turnover of up to 50% during major climatically driven oceanographic changes. Species diversity as measured by the Shannon-Wiener index falls from 3 to as low as 1.6 during these events. Major disruptions in the benthic communities commenced with Heinrich Event 1, the Inter-Aller??d Cold Period (IACP: 13.1 ka), the Younger Dryas (YD: 12.9-11.5 ka), and several Holocene Bond events when changes in deep-water circulation occurred. The largest collapse is associated with the YD/IACP and is characterized by an abrupt two-step decrease in both the upper North Atlantic Deep Water assemblage and species diversity at 13.1 ka and at 12.2 ka. The ostracode fauna at this site did not fully recover until ???8 ka, with the establishment of Labrador Sea Water ventilation. Ecologically opportunistic slope species prospered during this community collapse. Other abrupt community collapses during the past 20 ka generally correspond to millennial climate events. These results indicate that deep-sea ecosystems are not immune to the effects of rapid climate changes occurring over centuries or less. ?? 2008 by The National Academy of Sciences of the USA.

  4. Abrupt climate change and collapse of deep-sea ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Yasuhara, Moriaki; Cronin, Thomas M; Demenocal, Peter B; Okahashi, Hisayo; Linsley, Braddock K

    2008-02-05

    We investigated the deep-sea fossil record of benthic ostracodes during periods of rapid climate and oceanographic change over the past 20,000 years in a core from intermediate depth in the northwestern Atlantic. Results show that deep-sea benthic community "collapses" occur with faunal turnover of up to 50% during major climatically driven oceanographic changes. Species diversity as measured by the Shannon-Wiener index falls from 3 to as low as 1.6 during these events. Major disruptions in the benthic communities commenced with Heinrich Event 1, the Inter-Allerød Cold Period (IACP: 13.1 ka), the Younger Dryas (YD: 12.9-11.5 ka), and several Holocene Bond events when changes in deep-water circulation occurred. The largest collapse is associated with the YD/IACP and is characterized by an abrupt two-step decrease in both the upper North Atlantic Deep Water assemblage and species diversity at 13.1 ka and at 12.2 ka. The ostracode fauna at this site did not fully recover until approximately 8 ka, with the establishment of Labrador Sea Water ventilation. Ecologically opportunistic slope species prospered during this community collapse. Other abrupt community collapses during the past 20 ka generally correspond to millennial climate events. These results indicate that deep-sea ecosystems are not immune to the effects of rapid climate changes occurring over centuries or less.

  5. Wildfire responses to abrupt climate change in North America.

    PubMed

    Marlon, J R; Bartlein, P J; Walsh, M K; Harrison, S P; Brown, K J; Edwards, M E; Higuera, P E; Power, M J; Anderson, R S; Briles, C; Brunelle, A; Carcaillet, C; Daniels, M; Hu, F S; Lavoie, M; Long, C; Minckley, T; Richard, P J H; Scott, A C; Shafer, D S; Tinner, W; Umbanhowar, C E; Whitlock, C

    2009-02-24

    It is widely accepted, based on data from the last few decades and on model simulations, that anthropogenic climate change will cause increased fire activity. However, less attention has been paid to the relationship between abrupt climate changes and heightened fire activity in the paleorecord. We use 35 charcoal and pollen records to assess how fire regimes in North America changed during the last glacial-interglacial transition (15 to 10 ka), a time of large and rapid climate changes. We also test the hypothesis that a comet impact initiated continental-scale wildfires at 12.9 ka; the data do not support this idea, nor are continent-wide fires indicated at any time during deglaciation. There are, however, clear links between large climate changes and fire activity. Biomass burning gradually increased from the glacial period to the beginning of the Younger Dryas. Although there are changes in biomass burning during the Younger Dryas, there is no systematic trend. There is a further increase in biomass burning after the Younger Dryas. Intervals of rapid climate change at 13.9, 13.2, and 11.7 ka are marked by large increases in fire activity. The timing of changes in fire is not coincident with changes in human population density or the timing of the extinction of the megafauna. Although these factors could have contributed to fire-regime changes at individual sites or at specific times, the charcoal data indicate an important role for climate, and particularly rapid climate change, in determining broad-scale levels of fire activity.

  6. Dynamic response of desert wetlands to abrupt climate change

    PubMed Central

    Springer, Kathleen B.; Manker, Craig R.; Pigati, Jeffrey S.

    2015-01-01

    Desert wetlands are keystone ecosystems in arid environments and are preserved in the geologic record as groundwater discharge (GWD) deposits. GWD deposits are inherently discontinuous and stratigraphically complex, which has limited our understanding of how desert wetlands responded to past episodes of rapid climate change. Previous studies have shown that wetlands responded to climate change on glacial to interglacial timescales, but their sensitivity to short-lived climate perturbations is largely unknown. Here, we show that GWD deposits in the Las Vegas Valley (southern Nevada, United States) provide a detailed and nearly complete record of dynamic hydrologic changes during the past 35 ka (thousands of calibrated 14C years before present), including cycles of wetland expansion and contraction that correlate tightly with climatic oscillations recorded in the Greenland ice cores. Cessation of discharge associated with rapid warming events resulted in the collapse of entire wetland systems in the Las Vegas Valley at multiple times during the late Quaternary. On average, drought-like conditions, as recorded by widespread erosion and the formation of desert soils, lasted for a few centuries. This record illustrates the vulnerability of desert wetland flora and fauna to abrupt climate change. It also shows that GWD deposits can be used to reconstruct paleohydrologic conditions at millennial to submillennial timescales and informs conservation efforts aimed at protecting these fragile ecosystems in the face of anthropogenic warming. PMID:26554007

  7. Dynamic response of desert wetlands to abrupt climate change.

    PubMed

    Springer, Kathleen B; Manker, Craig R; Pigati, Jeffrey S

    2015-11-24

    Desert wetlands are keystone ecosystems in arid environments and are preserved in the geologic record as groundwater discharge (GWD) deposits. GWD deposits are inherently discontinuous and stratigraphically complex, which has limited our understanding of how desert wetlands responded to past episodes of rapid climate change. Previous studies have shown that wetlands responded to climate change on glacial to interglacial timescales, but their sensitivity to short-lived climate perturbations is largely unknown. Here, we show that GWD deposits in the Las Vegas Valley (southern Nevada, United States) provide a detailed and nearly complete record of dynamic hydrologic changes during the past 35 ka (thousands of calibrated (14)C years before present), including cycles of wetland expansion and contraction that correlate tightly with climatic oscillations recorded in the Greenland ice cores. Cessation of discharge associated with rapid warming events resulted in the collapse of entire wetland systems in the Las Vegas Valley at multiple times during the late Quaternary. On average, drought-like conditions, as recorded by widespread erosion and the formation of desert soils, lasted for a few centuries. This record illustrates the vulnerability of desert wetland flora and fauna to abrupt climate change. It also shows that GWD deposits can be used to reconstruct paleohydrologic conditions at millennial to submillennial timescales and informs conservation efforts aimed at protecting these fragile ecosystems in the face of anthropogenic warming.

  8. Dynamic response of desert wetlands to abrupt climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Springer, Kathleen; Manker, Craig; Pigati, Jeff

    2015-01-01

    Desert wetlands are keystone ecosystems in arid environments and are preserved in the geologic record as groundwater discharge (GWD) deposits. GWD deposits are inherently discontinuous and stratigraphically complex, which has limited our understanding of how desert wetlands responded to past episodes of rapid climate change. Previous studies have shown that wetlands responded to climate change on glacial to interglacial timescales, but their sensitivity to short-lived climate perturbations is largely unknown. Here, we show that GWD deposits in the Las Vegas Valley (southern Nevada, United States) provide a detailed and nearly complete record of dynamic hydrologic changes during the past 35 ka (thousands of calibrated 14C years before present), including cycles of wetland expansion and contraction that correlate tightly with climatic oscillations recorded in the Greenland ice cores. Cessation of discharge associated with rapid warming events resulted in the collapse of entire wetland systems in the Las Vegas Valley at multiple times during the late Quaternary. On average, drought-like conditions, as recorded by widespread erosion and the formation of desert soils, lasted for a few centuries. This record illustrates the vulnerability of desert wetland flora and fauna to abrupt climate change. It also shows that GWD deposits can be used to reconstruct paleohydrologic conditions at millennial to submillennial timescales and informs conservation efforts aimed at protecting these fragile ecosystems in the face of anthropogenic warming.

  9. From Abrupt Change to the Future (Hans Oeschger Medal Lecture)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stocker, T.

    2009-04-01

    The award of the Oeschger Medal 2009 is a particular honor and pleasure for me as I was given the chance to take over from Hans Oeschger the lead of a wonderful Institute at the University of Bern in 1993. Very apprehensive first, in front of the huge expectations and challenges, I quickly found dear colleagues, close collaborators and extremely supportive staff who all dedicated their time and creativity to work for the common goal of better understanding the Earth System, its variations in the past and its sensitivity to perturbations that man is inflicting on it today. Although met with innate skepticism first by the experimental physicists, our efforts in modelling, particularly the approach of using climate models of reduced complexity, quickly paid off and provided added value to the hard won data and measurements from polar ice cores. It is clear that modelling in such a diverse environment is so much more stimulating and enriching than working on a sophisticated parameterisation in a big modelling centre. Simple models have suggested that the Earth System may have limited stability and that rather fundamental changes could be triggered by the increase of greenhouse gases. However, it is the unique results from polar ice cores, particularly from Greenland that showed that, indeed, the Earth System has limited stability and can react in extremely abrupt ways to changes in forcing. Likewise, the Antarctic ice cores have provided one of the corner stones of our knowledge about climate change: Concentrations of CO2 are today 29% higher than ever during the last 800,000 years. These two fundamental insights from the paleoclimatic archive call for accelerated research into the sensitivity of the climate system and its components to perturbations, as well as the investigation of feedback mechanisms in the biogeochemical cycles that are disturbed by the input of CO2 into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels and land use change. Our research has only scratched the

  10. Gradual and abrupt changes during the Mid-Pleistocene Transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ford, Heather L.; Sosdian, Sindia M.; Rosenthal, Yair; Raymo, Maureen E.

    2016-09-01

    During the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT), the dominant glacial-interglacial cyclicity as inferred from the marine δ18O records of benthic foraminifera (δ18Obenthic) changed from 41 kyr to 100 kyr years in the absence of a comparable change in orbital forcing. Currently, only two Mg/Ca-derived, high-resolution bottom water temperature (BWT) records exist that can be used with δ18Obenthic records to separate temperature and ice volume signals over the Pleistocene. However, these two BWT records suggest a different pattern of climate change occurred over the MPT-a record from North Atlantic DSDP Site 607 suggests BWT decreased with no long-term trend in ice volume over the MPT, while South Pacific ODP Site 1123 suggests that BWT has been relatively stable over the last 1.5 Myr but that there was an abrupt increase in ice volume at ∼900 kyr. In this paper we attempt to reconcile these two views of climate change across the MPT. Specifically, we investigated the suggestion that the secular BWT trend obtained from Mg/Ca measurements on Cibicidoides wuellerstorfi and Oridorsalis umbonatus species from N. Atlantic Site 607 is biased by the possible influence of Δ[CO32-] on Mg/Ca values in these species by generating a low-resolution BWT record using Uvigerina spp., a genus whose Mg/Ca values are not thought to be influenced by Δ[CO32-]. We find a long-term BWT cooling of ∼2-3°C occurred from 1500 to ∼500 kyr in the N. Atlantic, consistent with the previously generated C. wuellerstorfi and O. umbonatus BWT record. We also find that changes in ocean circulation likely influenced δ18Obenthic, BWT, and δ18Oseawater records across the MPT. N. Atlantic BWT cooling starting at ∼1.2 Ma, presumably driven by high-latitude cooling, may have been a necessary precursor to a threshold response in climate-ice sheet behavior at ∼900 ka. At that point, a modest increase in ice volume and thermohaline reorganization may have caused enhanced sensitivity to the 100 kyr

  11. Transition process of abrupt climate change based on global sea surface temperature over the past century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yan, Pengcheng; Hou, Wei; Feng, Guolin

    2016-05-01

    A new detection method has been proposed to study the transition process of abrupt climate change. With this method, the climate system transiting from one stable state to another can be verified clearly. By applying this method to the global sea surface temperature over the past century, several climate changes and their processes are detected, including the start state (moment), persist time, and end state (moment). According to the spatial distribution, the locations of climate changes mainly have occurred in the Indian Ocean and western Pacific before the middle twentieth century, in the 1970s in the equatorial middle-eastern Pacific, and in the middle and southern Pacific since the end of the twentieth century. In addition, the quantitative relationship between the transition process parameters is verified in theory and practice: (1) the relationship between the rate and stability parameters is linear, and (2) the relationship between the rate and change amplitude parameters is quadratic.

  12. Molecular motor-driven abrupt anisotropic shape change in a single crystal of a Ni complex.

    PubMed

    Yao, Zi-Shuo; Mito, Masaki; Kamachi, Takashi; Shiota, Yoshihito; Yoshizawa, Kazunari; Azuma, Nobuaki; Miyazaki, Yuji; Takahashi, Kazuyuki; Zhang, Kuirun; Nakanishi, Takumi; Kang, Soonchul; Kanegawa, Shinji; Sato, Osamu

    2014-12-01

    Many molecular machines with controllable molecular-scale motors have been developed. However, transmitting molecular movement to the macroscopic scale remains a formidable challenge. Here we report a single crystal of a Ni complex whose shape changes abruptly and reversibly in response to thermal changes at around room temperature. Variable-temperature single-crystal X-ray diffraction studies show that the crystalline shape change is induced by an unusual 90° rotation of uniaxially aligned oxalate molecules. The oxalate dianions behave as molecular-scale rotors, with their movement propagated through the entire crystalline material via intermolecular hydrogen bonding. Consequently, the subnanometre-scale changes in the oxalate molecules are instantly amplified to a micrometre-scale contraction or expansion of the crystal, accompanied by a thermal hysteresis loop. The shape change in the crystal was clearly detected under an optical microscope. The large directional deformation and prompt response suggest a role for this material in microscale or nanoscale thermal actuators.

  13. Molecular motor-driven abrupt anisotropic shape change in a single crystal of a Ni complex

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yao, Zi-Shuo; Mito, Masaki; Kamachi, Takashi; Shiota, Yoshihito; Yoshizawa, Kazunari; Azuma, Nobuaki; Miyazaki, Yuji; Takahashi, Kazuyuki; Zhang, Kuirun; Nakanishi, Takumi; Kang, Soonchul; Kanegawa, Shinji; Sato, Osamu

    2014-12-01

    Many molecular machines with controllable molecular-scale motors have been developed. However, transmitting molecular movement to the macroscopic scale remains a formidable challenge. Here we report a single crystal of a Ni complex whose shape changes abruptly and reversibly in response to thermal changes at around room temperature. Variable-temperature single-crystal X-ray diffraction studies show that the crystalline shape change is induced by an unusual 90° rotation of uniaxially aligned oxalate molecules. The oxalate dianions behave as molecular-scale rotors, with their movement propagated through the entire crystalline material via intermolecular hydrogen bonding. Consequently, the subnanometre-scale changes in the oxalate molecules are instantly amplified to a micrometre-scale contraction or expansion of the crystal, accompanied by a thermal hysteresis loop. The shape change in the crystal was clearly detected under an optical microscope. The large directional deformation and prompt response suggest a role for this material in microscale or nanoscale thermal actuators.

  14. How children change their minds: strategy change can be gradual or abrupt.

    PubMed

    Alibali, M W

    1999-01-01

    This study investigated patterns of change in children's strategies for solving mathematical equivalence problems. The strategies children expressed in speech and in gesture were assessed both before and after an instructional intervention. In the intervention, children received either no input, accuracy feedback, or feedback plus instruction about a principle, an analogy, or a procedure. From pretest to posttest, many children changed both the variability of their strategy use and the content of their strategy repertoires. Patterns of change depended on type of instruction and on children's initial level of variability. Children who received instruction were especially likely to generate new strategies, and children with high variability were especially likely to abandon prior strategies. Gradual change was most common; however, many children modified their repertoires abruptly. Abrupt strategy change was especially prevalent among children who received procedure-based instruction and among children with low initial variability.

  15. Remote Detection and Modeling of Abrupt and Gradual Tree Mortality in the Southwestern USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muss, J. D.; Xu, C.; McDowell, N. G.

    2014-12-01

    Current climate models predict a warming and drying trend that has a high probability of increasing the frequency and spatial extent of tree mortality events. Field surveys can be used to identify, date, and attribute a cause of mortality to specific trees, but monetary and time constraints prevent broad-scale surveys, which are necessary to establish regional or global trends in tree mortality. This is significant because widespread forest mortality will likely lead to radical changes in evapotranspiration and surface albedo, which could compound climate change. While understanding the causes and mechanisms of tree mortality events is crucial, it is equally important to be able to detect and monitor mortality and subsequent changes to the ecosystem at broad spatial- and temporal-scales. Over the past five years our ability to remotely detect abrupt forest mortality events has improved greatly, but gradual events—such as those caused by drought or certain types of insects—are still difficult to identify. Moreover, it is virtually impossible to quantify the amount of mortality that has occurred within a mixed pixel. We have developed a system that fuses climate and satellite-derived spectral data to identify both the date and the agent of forest mortality events. This system has been used with Landsat time series data to detect both abrupt and general trends in tree loss that have occurred during the past quarter-century in northern New Mexico. It has also been used with MODIS data to identify pixels with a high likelihood of drought-caused tree mortality in the Southwestern US. These candidate pixels were then fed to ED-FRT, a coupled forest dynamics-radiative transfer model, to generate estimates of drought-induced. We demonstrate a multi-scale approach that can produce results that will be instrumental in advancing our understanding of tree mortality-climate feedbacks, and improve our ability to predict what forests could look like in the future.

  16. Low-latitude mountain glacier evidence for abrupt climate changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thompson, L. G.; Mosley-Thompson, E. S.; Lin, P.; Davis, M. E.; Mashiotta, T. A.; Brecher, H. H.

    2004-12-01

    Clear evidence that a widespread warming of Earth's climate system is now underway comes from low latitude mountain glaciers. Proxy temperature histories reconstructed from ice cores, and the rapidly accelerating loss of both the total ice area and ice volume on a near global scale suggest that these glaciers responding to increasing rates of melting. In situ observations reveal the startling rates at which many tropical glaciers are disappearing. For example, the retreat of the terminus of the Qori Kalis Glacier in Peru is roughly 200 meters per year, 40 times faster than its retreat rate in 1978. Similarly, in 1912 the ice on Mount Kilimanjaro covered 12.1 km2, but today it covers only 2.6 km2. If the current rate of retreat continues, the perennial ice fields may disappear within the next few decades, making this the first time in the past 11,700 years that Kilimanjaro will be devoid of the ice that shrouds its summit. Tropical glaciers may be considered ``the canaries in the coal mine'' for the global climate system as they integrate and respond to key climatological variables, such as temperature, precipitation, cloudiness, humidity, and incident solar radiation. A composite of the decadally-averaged oxygen isotopic records from three Andean and three Tibetan ice cores extending back over the last two millennia shows an isotopic enrichment in the 20th century that suggests a large-scale warming is underway at lower latitudes. Multiple lines of evidence from Africa, the Middle East, Europe and South America indicate an abrupt mid-Holocene climate event in the low latitudes. If such an event were to occur now with a global human population of 6.3 billion people, the consequences could be severe. Clearly, we need to understand the nature and cause of abrupt climate events.

  17. Sensitivity and rapidity of vegetational response to abrupt climate change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Peteet, D.

    2000-01-01

    Rapid climate change characterizes numerous terrestrial sediment records during and since the last glaciation. Vegetational response is best expressed in terrestrial records near ecotones, where sensitivity to climate change is greatest, and response times are as short as decades.

  18. Sensitivity and rapidity of vegetational response to abrupt climate change.

    PubMed

    Peteet, D

    2000-02-15

    Rapid climate change characterizes numerous terrestrial sediment records during and since the last glaciation. Vegetational response is best expressed in terrestrial records near ecotones, where sensitivity to climate change is greatest, and response times are as short as decades.

  19. Catalogue of abrupt shifts in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate models.

    PubMed

    Drijfhout, Sybren; Bathiany, Sebastian; Beaulieu, Claudie; Brovkin, Victor; Claussen, Martin; Huntingford, Chris; Scheffer, Marten; Sgubin, Giovanni; Swingedouw, Didier

    2015-10-27

    Abrupt transitions of regional climate in response to the gradual rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are notoriously difficult to foresee. However, such events could be particularly challenging in view of the capacity required for society and ecosystems to adapt to them. We present, to our knowledge, the first systematic screening of the massive climate model ensemble informing the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, and reveal evidence of 37 forced regional abrupt changes in the ocean, sea ice, snow cover, permafrost, and terrestrial biosphere that arise after a certain global temperature increase. Eighteen out of 37 events occur for global warming levels of less than 2°, a threshold sometimes presented as a safe limit. Although most models predict one or more such events, any specific occurrence typically appears in only a few models. We find no compelling evidence for a general relation between the overall number of abrupt shifts and the level of global warming. However, we do note that abrupt changes in ocean circulation occur more often for moderate warming (less than 2°), whereas over land they occur more often for warming larger than 2°. Using a basic proportion test, however, we find that the number of abrupt shifts identified in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenarios is significantly larger than in other scenarios of lower radiative forcing. This suggests the potential for a gradual trend of destabilization of the climate with respect to such shifts, due to increasing global mean temperature change.

  20. Catalogue of abrupt shifts in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate models

    PubMed Central

    Drijfhout, Sybren; Bathiany, Sebastian; Beaulieu, Claudie; Brovkin, Victor; Claussen, Martin; Huntingford, Chris; Scheffer, Marten; Sgubin, Giovanni; Swingedouw, Didier

    2015-01-01

    Abrupt transitions of regional climate in response to the gradual rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are notoriously difficult to foresee. However, such events could be particularly challenging in view of the capacity required for society and ecosystems to adapt to them. We present, to our knowledge, the first systematic screening of the massive climate model ensemble informing the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, and reveal evidence of 37 forced regional abrupt changes in the ocean, sea ice, snow cover, permafrost, and terrestrial biosphere that arise after a certain global temperature increase. Eighteen out of 37 events occur for global warming levels of less than 2°, a threshold sometimes presented as a safe limit. Although most models predict one or more such events, any specific occurrence typically appears in only a few models. We find no compelling evidence for a general relation between the overall number of abrupt shifts and the level of global warming. However, we do note that abrupt changes in ocean circulation occur more often for moderate warming (less than 2°), whereas over land they occur more often for warming larger than 2°. Using a basic proportion test, however, we find that the number of abrupt shifts identified in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenarios is significantly larger than in other scenarios of lower radiative forcing. This suggests the potential for a gradual trend of destabilization of the climate with respect to such shifts, due to increasing global mean temperature change. PMID:26460042

  1. GEOMAGNETIC REVERSALS DRIVEN BY ABRUPT SEA LEVEL CHANGES

    SciTech Connect

    Muller, R.A.; Morris, D.E.

    1986-10-01

    Changes in the moment of inertia of the earth, brought about by the redistribution of ocean water from the tropics to ice at high latitudes, couple energy from the spin of the earth into convection in the liquid core. This mechanism may help provide the driving energy for the earth's dynamo. Sufficiently rapid ocean level changes can disrupt the dynamo, resulting (in half of the cases) in a geomagnetic field reversal. The model can account for the previously mysterious correlation reported between geomagnetic reversals and mass extinctions.

  2. Ice-core evidence of abrupt climate changes.

    PubMed

    Alley, R B

    2000-02-15

    Ice-core records show that climate changes in the past have been large, rapid, and synchronous over broad areas extending into low latitudes, with less variability over historical times. These ice-core records come from high mountain glaciers and the polar regions, including small ice caps and the large ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica.

  3. Planet-wide volcanics correlated with Last Glacial abrupt climate changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bay, R. C.; Bramall, N.; Price, P. B.

    2004-12-01

    We recently reported a correlation in excess of 99.5% between volcanic ash layers recorded in the deep ice core site at Siple Dome, West Antarctica and millennium-timescale abrupt cold periods (Dansgaard-Oeschger events) recorded at Summit, Greenland (GISP2) during the last glacial period. These data, obtained with our deep borehole optical dust logger, are the best evidence yet for a causal connection between volcanism and millennial climate change on the planetary scale, and lead to possibilities of a direct causal relationship. We now present a comparison with other volcanic proxies which demonstrates that the heaviest ash layers we detected at Siple Dome, those sufficiently concentrated for detailed chemical analysis in the core, appear to have come from local sources in West Antarctica, whereas the majority correspond to volcanic events detected throughout the Antarctic continent that correlate strongly with millennial climate changes in the Northern Hemisphere. Excluding the several heaviest ash signals in the Siple Dome data set increases the correlation with climate above the 3-sigma level, more than 800-to-one rejection of the null hypothesis. In June 2004 we deployed a high-resolution logger in the GRIP borehole at Summit, Greenland. We detected of order ˜100 volcanic ash layers which correlate weakly if at all with millennial climate change, consistent with studies of other Greenlandic records of volcanism. This contrast may provide an important clue to understanding global volcano-climate interaction as well as the role of the Southern Hemisphere. Of interest is a scenario in which volcanic ash and sulfate abruptly increase the soluble iron in large surface areas of nutrient-limited oceans, particularly the Southern Ocean, and stimulate growth of phytoplankton which enhance cooling by altering ocean albedo and atmospheric chemistry through mechanisms not fully understood. Viewed from another perspective, crustal stresses from ice-sheet loading

  4. Abrupt changes in ice shelves and ice streams: Model studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dupont, Todd K.

    Ice sheets are among the most important components of the Earth system because of their ability to force changes in climate and sea level. Ice streams are efficient pathways of mass flux from the interior of ice sheets. Thus an understanding of ice-stream dynamics is integral to an understanding of ice sheets and their interplay with sea level and climate. Here a 1-d model of the coupled mass and momentum balance of ice streams and shelves is developed. Longitudinal deviatoric stress is included in the force-balance component model. The mass-balance component model is time-dependent and thus allows simulation of the dynamic consequences of changes in boundary conditions or parameters. An improved, computationally efficient algorithm of the discretization of the mass-balance equation is outlined. All model parameters are non-dimensional. The model is applied to two problems. In the first study we address the sensitivity of ice-stream/ice-shelf systems to changes in ice-shelf buttressing. We find that for reasonable parameter values such systems are markedly sensitive to a loss of buttressing. Response includes net grounding-line retreat on the order of 10% of the length scale for the system and a roughly 30% loss in the volume of ice above flotation. In the second study we examine the conditions under which ice flowing over a sill will tend to create a reversed ice/air surface slope. Here we find that, such slope reversals occur within the range of reasonable parameter values, and thus should be expected. Hence, ice shelf grounding on a sill can trap water and drive subsequent thickening, eventually tending toward outburst flooding.

  5. High-resolution Greenland ice core data show abrupt climate change happens in few years.

    PubMed

    Steffensen, Jørgen Peder; Andersen, Katrine K; Bigler, Matthias; Clausen, Henrik B; Dahl-Jensen, Dorthe; Fischer, Hubertus; Goto-Azuma, Kumiko; Hansson, Margareta; Johnsen, Sigfús J; Jouzel, Jean; Masson-Delmotte, Valérie; Popp, Trevor; Rasmussen, Sune O; Röthlisberger, Regine; Ruth, Urs; Stauffer, Bernhard; Siggaard-Andersen, Marie-Louise; Sveinbjörnsdóttir, Arny E; Svensson, Anders; White, James W C

    2008-08-01

    The last two abrupt warmings at the onset of our present warm interglacial period, interrupted by the Younger Dryas cooling event, were investigated at high temporal resolution from the North Greenland Ice Core Project ice core. The deuterium excess, a proxy of Greenland precipitation moisture source, switched mode within 1 to 3 years over these transitions and initiated a more gradual change (over 50 years) of the Greenland air temperature, as recorded by stable water isotopes. The onsets of both abrupt Greenland warmings were slightly preceded by decreasing Greenland dust deposition, reflecting the wetting of Asian deserts. A northern shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone could be the trigger of these abrupt shifts of Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, resulting in changes of 2 to 4 kelvin in Greenland moisture source temperature from one year to the next.

  6. Atmospheric teleconnections between the tropics and the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds during abrupt climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Markle, B. R.; Steig, E. J.; Buizert, C.; Schoenemann, S. W.; Bitz, C. M.; Fudge, T. J.; Pedro, J. B.; Ding, Q.; Jones, T. R.; White, J. W. C.; Sowers, T. A.

    2015-12-01

    Abrupt, large amplitude climate oscillations occurred in the North Atlantic region during the last deglaciation and glacial period. Antarctic temperatures show a lagged and out-of-phase response, suggesting that these climate anomalies were propagated to the Southern Hemisphere high latitudes through changes in ocean circulation. Large changes in atmospheric circulation in the tropics accompanied abrupt North Atlantic climate change and modeling studies have predicted an atmospheric teleconnection between the tropics and the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds. However, consistent paleoclimate evidence for this tropical-high southern latitude atmospheric teleconnection has been lacking. Here we use a new high-resolution deuterium excess record from West Antarctica to show that moisture sources for Antarctic precipitation changed in phase with abrupt shifts in Northern Hemisphere climate, significantly before Antarctic temperature change. These results suggest that Southern Hemisphere mid-latitude storm tracks and westerly winds migrated north- and southwards within decades of rapid North Atlantic warming and cooling, respectively, and in parallel with the well-established migrations of the intertropical convergence zone. Both ocean and atmospheric processes, operating on different timescales, are critical to the global expression of abrupt climate change and this atmospheric link between the hemispheres may be important to the underlying dynamics.

  7. Abrupt Climate Change: A Magnetic Coupling Model (MCM) Prediction.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ely, John T. A.

    2002-04-01

    Recent findings [p.8 ISBN 0-309-07434-7] show major climate changes often occur in a decade. This is another of many MCM predictions (see refs). All of them tested from 1968 to date have been proven, including: Global warming is real and driven by fossil fuel (1970's); This CO2 forcing has ended Major Ice Ages; All Major and Minor Ice Ages are caused by decreases in existing (primarily subvisible and other thin, especially newly forming) cirrus at mid to high geomagnetic latitudes; Ionization of the atmosphere near 250 grams per square cm depth by GCR (galactic cosmic ray protons circa 1 gev) cause cirrus depression; Ice cores and other proxy records show ice ages exhibit increased beryllium-10, carbon-14, etc, due to GCR. As noted in the Mar and Apr abstracts, the MCM predictable climate ended in 2000, following over 30 yrs of our ignoring its easily testable warnings re fossil fuel. Hence, we now face the somber question of whether human intervention is still possible in a CO2 Runaway and sea level rise that may be on a decade time scale. [Ely, Session A8, APS Mtg, Seattle, Mar 01; Ely, Session H14.013, APS Mtg, Apr 01; MCM pub list http://faculty.washington.edu/ely/MCM.html

  8. Dynamics of climate and ecosystem coupling: abrupt changes and multiple equilibria.

    PubMed

    Higgins, Paul A T; Mastrandrea, Michael D; Schneider, Stephen H

    2002-05-29

    Interactions between subunits of the global climate-biosphere system (e.g. atmosphere, ocean, biosphere and cryosphere) often lead to behaviour that is not evident when each subunit is viewed in isolation. This newly evident behaviour is an emergent property of the coupled subsystems. Interactions between thermohaline circulation and climate illustrate one emergent property of coupling ocean and atmospheric circulation. The multiple thermohaline circulation equilibria that result caused abrupt climate changes in the past and may cause abrupt climate changes in the future. Similarly, coupling between the climate system and ecosystem structure and function produces complex behaviour in certain regions. For example, atmosphere-biosphere interactions in the Sahel region of West Africa lead to multiple stable equilibria. Either wet or dry climate equilibria can occur under otherwise identical forcing conditions. The equilibrium reached is dependent on past history (i.e. initial conditions), and relatively small perturbations to either climate or vegetation can cause switching between the two equilibria. Both thermohaline circulation and the climate-vegetation system in the Sahel are prone to abrupt changes that may be irreversible. This complicates the relatively linear view of global changes held in many scientific and policy communities. Emergent properties of coupled socio-natural systems add yet another layer of complexity to the policy debate. As a result, the social and economic consequences of possible global changes are likely to be underestimated in most conventional analyses because these nonlinear, abrupt and irreversible responses are insufficiently considered.

  9. Abrupt change of Antarctic moisture origin at the end of Termination II.

    PubMed

    Masson-Delmotte, V; Stenni, B; Blunier, T; Cattani, O; Chappellaz, J; Cheng, H; Dreyfus, G; Edwards, R L; Falourd, S; Govin, A; Kawamura, K; Johnsen, S J; Jouzel, J; Landais, A; Lemieux-Dudon, B; Lourantou, A; Marshall, G; Minster, B; Mudelsee, M; Pol, K; Röthlisberger, R; Selmo, E; Waelbroeck, C

    2010-07-06

    The deuterium excess of polar ice cores documents past changes in evaporation conditions and moisture origin. New data obtained from the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica Dome C East Antarctic ice core provide new insights on the sequence of events involved in Termination II, the transition between the penultimate glacial and interglacial periods. This termination is marked by a north-south seesaw behavior, with first a slow methane concentration rise associated with a strong Antarctic temperature warming and a slow deuterium excess rise. This first step is followed by an abrupt north Atlantic warming, an abrupt resumption of the East Asian summer monsoon, a sharp methane rise, and a CO(2) overshoot, which coincide within dating uncertainties with the end of Antarctic optimum. Here, we show that this second phase is marked by a very sharp Dome C centennial deuterium excess rise, revealing abrupt reorganization of atmospheric circulation in the southern Indian Ocean sector.

  10. The abrupt changes in the yellowed fibril density in the Linen of Turin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Curciarello, F.; De Leo, V.; Fazio, G.; Mandaglio, G.

    2012-03-01

    The present investigation is an attempt to explain the abrupt changes in the yellowed fibril density (or image intensity) values in the dorsal part of the Shroud of Turin body image. The interested areas are the ones at the base of the shoulders and the buttocks. These rapid changes in the body image intensity are not anomalies of the linen manufacture. They can be explained with the original presence of aromas and/or burial ointments.

  11. Does the trigger for abrupt climate change reside in the ocean or in the atmosphere?

    PubMed

    Broecker, W S

    2003-06-06

    Two hypotheses have been put forward to explain the large and abrupt climate changes that punctuated glacial time. One attributes such changes to reorganizations of the ocean's thermohaline circulation and the other to changes in tropical atmosphere-ocean dynamics. In an attempt to distinguish between these hypotheses, two lines of evidence are examined. The first involves the timing of the freshwater injections to the northern Atlantic that have been suggested as triggers for the global impacts associated with the Younger Dryas and Heinrich events. The second has to do with evidence for precursory events associated with the Heinrich ice-rafted debris layers in the northern Atlantic and with the abrupt Dansgaard-Oeschger warmings recorded in the Santa Barbara Basin.

  12. Characterizing abrupt changes in the stock prices using a wavelet decomposition method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caetano, Marco Antonio Leonel; Yoneyama, Takashi

    2007-09-01

    Abrupt changes in the stock prices, either upwards or downwards, are usually preceded by an oscillatory behavior with frequencies that tend to increase as the moment of transition becomes closer. The wavelet decomposition methods may be useful for analysis of this oscillations with varying frequencies, because they provide simultaneous information on the frequency (scale) and localization in time (translation). However, in order to use the wavelet decomposition, certain requirements have to be satisfied, so that the linear and cyclic trends are eliminated by standard least squares techniques. The coefficients obtained by the wavelet decomposition can be represented in a graphical form. A threshold can then be established to characterize the likelihood of a short-time abrupt change in the stock prices. Actual data from the São Paulo Stock Exchange (Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo) were used in this work to illustrate the proposed method.

  13. Abrupt biological response to hydrologic and land-use changes in Lake Apopka, Florida, USA.

    PubMed

    Schelske, Claire L; Lowe, Edgar F; Battoe, Lawrence E; Brenner, Mark; Coveney, Michael F; Kenney, William F

    2005-05-01

    Lake Apopka is a shallow, hypereutrophic lake in north-central Florida that experienced an abrupt shift in primary producer community structure (PPCS) in 1947. The PPCS shift was so abrupt anecdotal accounts report that dominant, submersed aquatic vegetation was uprooted by a hurricane in 1947 and replaced by phytoplankton within weeks. Here we propose two hypotheses to explain the sudden shift to phytoplankton. First, hydrologic modification of the drainage basin in the late 1800s lowered the lake level ca. 1.0 m, allowing the ecosystem to accommodate moderate, anthropogenic nutrient enrichment through enhanced production in the macrophyte community. Second, additional hydrologic changes and large-scale agricultural development of floodplain wetlands began in 1942 and altered the pattern and scale of phosphorus loading to the lake that triggered the rapid shift to phytoplankton dominance in 1947. Historic land-use changes and paleolimnological data on biological responses to nutrient loading support these hypotheses.

  14. Abrupt climate changes in northwestern Colombia during the Lateglacial and Holocene transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Velasquez Ruiz, C.

    2013-05-01

    High resolution pollen/spores records from Paramo de Frontino (6, 29N, 76, 6W) and Paramo de Belmira (6,42'N, 75,40'W) in Colombia (Velásquez C. and H. Hooghiemstra, Paleobotany, 2012 in press; Velásquez C., et al., in preparation) spanning 17300 and 34000 cal yr BP; are studied for abrupt climatic change and compared with a La Cocha diatom record (Gonzalez, Z, et al., 2012), Frontino and Cariaco Basin (offshore Venezuela) titanium records and a Cariaco sea surface temperatures record (Gorin, G., et al, in preparation; Haug, et al., 2001; Lea D., et al., 2003; respectively); in reference to detected vegetation and climate variations. The most remarkable events occurred at 8200, 9300, 10400, 12000, 13500, 14.5-14.7, 16.2 and 21.4 cal yr BP. Low frequency cycles of 1500-2500 yr are present along the records suggesting that the North Atlantic Bond Cycles are also registered in northwestern South American terrestrial records. Some of these changes were dry while others wet, showing that both patterns "Cold poles, dry tropics" and "Cold poles, wet tropics" can be expressed. It was also found that the estimated temperatures from Paramo de Frontino (pollen based) and sea surface temperatures in Cariaco followed a similar trend during the the Late Glacial and Early Holocene. However, in the case of moisture, the Titanium record (indicative of rainfall) from the Cariaco Basin, the aquatic vegetation pollen and titanium records from Paramo de Frontino and diatoms record from La Cocha lake, showed a clear antiphase behavior during the same periods. Position and shape of Intertropical Convergence Zone are postulated as responsible for this variation. Keywords: palinology, Intertropical Convergence Zone, titanium, Colombia, climatic and vegetation changes.

  15. Simulating the response of glacial ice-sheets to past abrupt climate changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Banderas, Rubén; Álvarez-Solas, Jorge; Robinson, Alexander; Montoya, Marisa

    2016-04-01

    Dansgaard-Oeschger (D/O) events were recurrent glacial abrupt climatic transitions between cold and warm conditions over Greenland with an approximate characteristic time of a thousand years. The uncertainties among the available sea level reconstructions hinder our understanding of the interactions between climate and global ice volume. In addition, only limited highly-resolved and continuous sea level records exist. Thus, the millennial time-scale response of glacial ice-sheets to past abrupt climate changes is not well known. Here, we use a hybrid ice sheet-ice shelf model in order to investigate the response of glacial ice-sheets to the influence of millennial-scale climate variability. An ensemble of simulations is performed by forcing the model with a wide range of time-varying climatologies derived from proxy data and from some of the currently available climate model simulations. The assessment of the resulting suite of transient simulations will contribute to constrain the inadequacies of sea level reconstructions in terms of amplitude and timing and will help to understand the implications of glacial abrupt climate changes in past sea level variability. Furthermore, our experiments could be useful to elucidate the mechanisms that involve the interactions between climate and ice sheets on millennial time scales, including future climate change.

  16. Consistent simulations of multiple proxy responses to an abrupt climate change event.

    PubMed

    LeGrande, A N; Schmidt, G A; Shindell, D T; Field, C V; Miller, R L; Koch, D M; Faluvegi, G; Hoffmann, G

    2006-01-24

    Isotope, aerosol, and methane records document an abrupt cooling event across the Northern Hemisphere at 8.2 kiloyears before present (kyr), while separate geologic lines of evidence document the catastrophic drainage of the glacial Lakes Agassiz and Ojibway into the Hudson Bay at approximately the same time. This melt water pulse may have been the catalyst for a decrease in North Atlantic Deep Water formation and subsequent cooling around the Northern Hemisphere. However, lack of direct evidence for ocean cooling has lead to speculation that this abrupt event was purely local to Greenland and called into question this proposed mechanism. We simulate the response to this melt water pulse using a coupled general circulation model that explicitly tracks water isotopes and with atmosphere-only experiments that calculate changes in atmospheric aerosol deposition (specifically (10)Be and dust) and wetland methane emissions. The simulations produce a short period of significantly diminished North Atlantic Deep Water and are able to quantitatively match paleoclimate observations, including the lack of isotopic signal in the North Atlantic. This direct comparison with multiple proxy records provides compelling evidence that changes in ocean circulation played a major role in this abrupt climate change event.

  17. Iceberg discharges and oceanic circulation changes during glacial abrupt climate changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alvarez-Solas, Jorge; Robinson, Alexander; Banderas, Rubén; Montoya, Marisa

    2015-04-01

    Proxy data reveal the existence of episodes of increased deposition of ice-rafted debris in the North Atlantic Ocean during the last glacial period. These are interpreted as massive iceberg discharges mainly from the Laurentide Ice Sheet. Although these have long been attributed to self-sustained ice sheet oscillations, growing evidence points to an active role of the oceanic circulation. Here we will present simulations of the last glacial period carried out with a hybrid ice sheet-ice shelf model. Two mechanisms producing iceberg discharges are compared. First, we reproduce the classic binge-purge by which the iceberg surges are produced thanks to the existence of an internal thermo-mechanical feedback that allows the ice sheet to behave under an oscillatory regime. Second, our ice-sheet model is forced by an oceanic warming index derived from proxy data that accounts for the impact of past ocean circulation changes on ocean temperatures. In this case, the model generates a time series of iceberg calving that agrees with ice-rafted debris records over the past 80 ka. We compare the two theories and discuss their advantages and weaknesses in terms of both the robustness of the physics on which they are based and their comparison with proxies. This comparison highlights the importance of considering past oceanic circulation changes in order to understand the ice-sheet dynamics. However, the ultimate processes determining abrupt changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) remain elusive. Therefore we will also analyze several proposed mechanisms that aims to explain such AMOC reorganizations, focusing on those that do not require freshwater flux forcing.

  18. Decoupling of Northern North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature and Deep Circulation during Abrupt Glacial Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jonkers, L.; Barker, S.; Hall, I. R.

    2014-12-01

    Abrupt climate change is a prominent feature of the ice ages. The prevailing view is that these changes are related to fluctuations in ocean circulation, possibly triggered by changes in freshwater forcing as a result of ice-rafting events in the North Atlantic. Here we investigate this view by presenting results from a sediment core in the Northern North Atlantic (ODP 983 60.4°N, 23.6°W, 1984m depth, ~12-35 kyr), which is ideally positioned to monitor changes in the flow speed of Iceland-Scotland Overflow Waters. The mean size of silt (10-63 μm) has been proposed as a useful flow speed indicator, but can be influenced the presence of ice-rafted detritus (IRD). We present grain size data obtained using a Coulter counter as well as a laser diffraction particle sizer, which we compare to the proportion of Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (proxy for sea surface temperature) and manually counted coarse IRD. Grain size results are comparable for the two techniques and the influence of IRD is clearly visible in the mean size data. We use end-member modelling to derive an IRD-free estimate of flow speed variability and find clear reductions in the flow speed associated with IRD input. Sea surface temperature however, appears to vary independently from IRD input and hence deep circulation. In particular, IRD appears and current speed decreases after the onset of cooling and additional temperature variability is observed that is not associated with IRD events or changes in the deep circulation. These results question the classical view of freshwater forcing as the driver of abrupt climate change. We suggest that North Atlantic temperature variability may be related to shifts in position of the polar front and that, while IRD events may be coeval with changes in the deep circulation, these changes are not required to explain the abrupt temperature variability in the Northern North Atlantic.

  19. Vegetation responses to abrupt climatic changes during the Last Interglacial Complex (Marine Isotope Stage 5) at Tenaghi Philippon, NE Greece

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Milner, A. M.; Roucoux, K. H.; Collier, R. E. L.; Müller, U. C.; Pross, J.; Tzedakis, P. C.

    2016-12-01

    The discovery that climate variability during the Last Glacial shifted rapidly between climate states has intensified efforts to understand the distribution, timing and impact of abrupt climate change under a wide range of boundary conditions. In contribution to this, we investigate the nature of abrupt environmental changes in terrestrial settings of the Mediterranean region during the Last Interglacial Complex (Marine Isotope Stage [MIS] 5) and explore the relationships of these changes to high-latitude climate events. We present a new, temporally highly resolved (mean: 170 years) pollen record for the Last Interglacial Complex from Tenaghi Philippon, north-east Greece. The new pollen record, which spans the interval from 130,000 to 65,000 years ago, forms part of an exceptionally long polleniferous sediment archive covering the last 1.35 million years. The pollen data reveal an interglacial followed by alternating forest and steppe phases representing the interstadials and stadials of the Early Glacial. Superimposed on these millennial-scale changes is evidence of persistent sub-millennial-scale variability. We identify ten high-amplitude abrupt events in the pollen record, characterised by rapid contractions of closed forest to open steppe environment and interpreted to indicate major changes in moisture availability and temperature. The contractions in forest cover on millennial timescales appear associated with cooling events in the Mediterranean Sea, North Atlantic and Greenland regions, linked to the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) cycles of the Early Glacial. On sub-millennial timescales, the pattern of changes in forest cover at Tenaghi Philippon display a structure similar to the pattern of short-lived precursor and rebound-type events detected in the Greenland ice-core record. Our findings indicate that persistent, high-amplitude environmental variability occurred throughout the Early Glacial, on both millennial and submillennial timescales. Furthermore, the

  20. Influence of external forcings on abrupt millennial-scale climate changes: a statistical modelling study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mitsui, Takahito; Crucifix, Michel

    2016-07-01

    The last glacial period was punctuated by a series of abrupt climate shifts, the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. The frequency of DO events varied in time, supposedly because of changes in background climate conditions. Here, the influence of external forcings on DO events is investigated with statistical modelling. We assume two types of simple stochastic dynamical systems models (double-well potential-type and oscillator-type), forced by the northern hemisphere summer insolation change and/or the global ice volume change. The model parameters are estimated by using the maximum likelihood method with the NGRIP Ca^{2+} record. The stochastic oscillator model with at least the ice volume forcing reproduces well the sample autocorrelation function of the record and the frequency changes of warming transitions in the last glacial period across MISs 2, 3, and 4. The model performance is improved with the additional insolation forcing. The BIC scores also suggest that the ice volume forcing is relatively more important than the insolation forcing, though the strength of evidence depends on the model assumption. Finally, we simulate the average number of warming transitions in the past four glacial periods, assuming the model can be extended beyond the last glacial, and compare the result with an Iberian margin sea-surface temperature (SST) record (Martrat et al. in Science 317(5837): 502-507, 2007). The simulation result supports the previous observation that abrupt millennial-scale climate changes in the penultimate glacial (MIS 6) are less frequent than in the last glacial (MISs 2-4). On the other hand, it suggests that the number of abrupt millennial-scale climate changes in older glacial periods (MISs 6, 8, and 10) might be larger than inferred from the SST record.

  1. Abrupt temperature changes in the Western Mediterranean over the past 250,000 years.

    PubMed

    Martrat, Belen; Grimalt, Joan O; Lopez-Martinez, Constancia; Cacho, Isabel; Sierro, Francisco J; Flores, Jose Abel; Zahn, Rainer; Canals, Miquel; Curtis, Jason H; Hodell, David A

    2004-12-03

    A continuous high-resolution Western Mediterranean sea surface temperature (SST) alkenone record spanning the past 250,000 years shows that abrupt changes were more common at warming than at cooling. During marine isotope stage (MIS) 6, SST oscillated following a stadial-interstadial pattern but at lower intensities and rates of change than in the Dansgaard/Oeschger events of MIS 3. Some of the most prominent events occurred over MISs 5 and 7, after prolonged warm periods of high stability. Climate during the whole period was predominantly maintained in interglacial-interstadial conditions, whereas the duration of stadials was much shorter.

  2. Trend, abrupt change, and periodicity of streamflow in the mainstream of Yellow River.

    PubMed

    He, Bin; Miao, Chiyuan; Shi, Wen

    2013-07-01

    The Yellow River is the second largest river in China. The annual runoff of which is only about 2% of China's total, but contributes to 9% of China's GDP and directly supports 12% of the population. Today, the water shortage in the Yellow River basin has been aggravated due to rapid population growth and global warming. In order to best maximize water resources management, the natural and observed streamflow series from six hydrologic gauging stations (Guide, Lanzhou, Hekou, Sanmenxia, Huayuankou, and Lijin) are obtained, and the linear regression, Mann-Kendall test, and wavelet transform methods were used to detect the characteristic of streamflow variation from 1956 to 2007. The results show that: (1) both the natural streamflow and observed streamflow present a downward trend over the past 52 years, and the trends are intensified downstream; the decreasing rate of observed streamflow is more rapid than that of the natural streamflow; (2) most of the abrupt changes in natural streamflow and observed streamflow appear in the late 1980s to early 1990s through the result of the Mann-Kendall test; and (3) other than the Guide station, the streamflows at the rest of the stations appear to have strongest periodicity of 19-21 years with a 52-year scale. The results of this study imply that less precipitation and warmer climate in the basin are the primary factors that cause this decreasing trend of natural streamflow. Additionally, the rapid ascent of water consumption by human being results in the reduction of observed streamflow further. Furthermore, human activities like reservoir construction, soil and water conservation measures, etc. influence the streamflow as well. It is recommended that the society takes some effective countermeasures to cope with the water shortage.

  3. Diagnostic Performance of Ultrasonography for Detection of Abruption and Its Clinical Correlation and Maternal and Foetal Outcome

    PubMed Central

    Vaswani, Babita Prakash; Patange, R.P.; Laddad, Manisha Manish; Bhosale, Rajashree Babasaheb

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Placental abruption complicates about 1% of singleton pregnancies and is an important cause of perinatal mortality and morbidity. Though sensitivity and reliability of ultrasound are poor for detecting or excluding placental abruption, because of the advances in ultrasound resolution, imaging and interpretation, sensitivity of ultrasound is better than what was reported previously. Aim To determine the diagnostic performance of Ultrasonography (USG) for the detection of placental abruption and whether sonographic results correlate with maternal and foetal management and outcome. Materials and Methods Thirty patients with clinical diagnosis of placental abruption were studied in the Obstetrics and Gynaecology Department of Krishna Institute of Medical Sciences, over a period of 6 months. These patients underwent ultrasonography for confirmation. Obstetric and neonatal outcome and sonographic results were compared and reviewed. Sonographic sensitivity and specificity and positive and negative predictive values were calculated. Results Incidence of abruption in present study was 1.56% (28 patients out of 1786 total deliveries). Sensitivity of ultrasonography in the diagnosis of abruption was 57% (CI 37.15%-75.57%) while its specificity was 100% (CI 15.81%-100%) with a positive predictive value of 100% (CI 79.42%-100%) and a 14% (CI 1.78% - 42.83%) negative predictive value. An 87.5% of patients(14 out of 16) with a positive USG finding of abruption had Intrauterine foetal Death (IUD)/still birth while 91.6% of patients (11 out of 12) with negative USG findings of abruption gave birth to babies who required NICU admission. Conclusion Sonography is not sensitive for the detection of placental abruption but it is highly specific. Positive sonographic findings are associated with increased maternal morbidity, require more aggressive obstetric management and it is associated with worse perinatal outcome. In case of a negative USG finding, but a strong clinical

  4. Abrupt changes in the southern extent of North Atlantic Deep Water during Dansgaard-Oeschger events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gottschalk, Julia; Skinner, Luke C.; Misra, Sambuddha; Waelbroeck, Claire; Menviel, Laurie; Timmermann, Axel

    2015-12-01

    The glacial climate system transitioned rapidly between cold (stadial) and warm (interstadial) conditions in the Northern Hemisphere. This variability, referred to as Dansgaard-Oeschger variability, is widely believed to arise from perturbations of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Evidence for such changes during the longer Heinrich stadials has been identified, but direct evidence for overturning circulation changes during Dansgaard-Oeschger events has proven elusive. Here we reconstruct bottom water [CO32-] variability from B/Ca ratios of benthic foraminifera and indicators of sedimentary dissolution, and use these reconstructions to infer the flow of northern-sourced deep water to the deep central sub-Antarctic Atlantic Ocean. We find that nearly every Dansgaard-Oeschger interstadial is accompanied by a rapid incursion of North Atlantic Deep Water into the deep South Atlantic. Based on these results and transient climate model simulations, we conclude that North Atlantic stadial-interstadial climate variability was associated with significant Atlantic overturning circulation changes that were rapidly transmitted across the Atlantic. However, by demonstrating the persistent role of Atlantic overturning circulation changes in past abrupt climate variability, our reconstructions of carbonate chemistry further indicate that the carbon cycle response to abrupt climate change was not a simple function of North Atlantic overturning.

  5. Abrupt Holocene climate change as an important factor for human migration in West Greenland.

    PubMed

    D'Andrea, William J; Huang, Yongsong; Fritz, Sherilyn C; Anderson, N John

    2011-06-14

    West Greenland has had multiple episodes of human colonization and cultural transitions over the past 4,500 y. However, the explanations for these large-scale human migrations are varied, including climatic factors, resistance to adaptation, economic marginalization, mercantile exploration, and hostile neighborhood interactions. Evaluating the potential role of climate change is complicated by the lack of quantitative paleoclimate reconstructions near settlement areas and by the relative stability of Holocene temperature derived from ice cores atop the Greenland ice sheet. Here we present high-resolution records of temperature over the past 5,600 y based on alkenone unsaturation in sediments of two lakes in West Greenland. We find that major temperature changes in the past 4,500 y occurred abruptly (within decades), and were coeval in timing with the archaeological records of settlement and abandonment of the Saqqaq, Dorset, and Norse cultures, which suggests that abrupt temperature changes profoundly impacted human civilization in the region. Temperature variations in West Greenland display an antiphased relationship to temperature changes in Ireland over centennial to millennial timescales, resembling the interannual to multidecadal temperature seesaw associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation.

  6. Modeling Abrupt Change in Global Sea Level Arising from Ocean - Ice-Sheet Interaction

    SciTech Connect

    Holland, David M

    2011-09-24

    It is proposed to develop, validate, and apply a coupled ocean ice-sheet model to simulate possible, abrupt future change in global sea level. This research is to be carried out collaboratively between an academic institute and a Department of Energy Laboratory (DOE), namely, the PI and a graduate student at New York University (NYU) and climate model researchers at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The NYU contribution is mainly in the area of incorporating new physical processes into the model, while the LANL efforts are focused on improved numerics and overall model development. NYU and LANL will work together on applying the model to a variety of modeling scenarios of recent past and possible near-future abrupt change to the configuration of the periphery of the major ice sheets. The project's ultimate goal is to provide a robust, accurate prediction of future global sea level change, a feat that no fully-coupled climate model is currently capable of producing. This proposal seeks to advance that ultimate goal by developing, validating, and applying a regional model that can simulate the detailed processes involved in sea-level change due to ocean ice-sheet interaction. Directly modeling ocean ice-sheet processes in a fully-coupled global climate model is not a feasible activity at present given the near-complete absence of development of any such causal mechanism in these models to date.

  7. Formant frequency estimates for abruptly changing area functions: a comparison between calculations and measurements.

    PubMed

    Sundberg, J; Lindblom, B; Liljencrants, J

    1992-06-01

    Vocal tract area functions may contain quite abrupt changes in cross-sectional area. In formant frequency calculations for such area functions, an inner length correction (ILC) should be applied. The relevance of this correction was investigated by comparing acoustic measurements obtained from a physical model of the vocal tract with data gathered by means of computer simulations. Calculating formant frequencies without applying internal length corrections caused substantial errors, particularly for area functions representing apical stops just anterior to occlusion. Decentering and axial symmetry in the arrangement of the area elements of the physical model were briefly studied and found to have effects on the formant frequency values.

  8. Extrinsic regime shifts drive abrupt changes in regeneration dynamics at upper treeline in the Rocky Mountains, U.S.A.

    PubMed

    Elliott, Grant P

    2012-07-01

    Given the widespread and often dramatic influence of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems, it is increasingly common for abrupt threshold changes to occur, yet explicitly testing for climate and ecological regime shifts is lacking in climatically sensitive upper treeline ecotones. In this study, quantitative evidence based on empirical data is provided to support the key role of extrinsic, climate-induced thresholds in governing the spatial and temporal patterns of tree establishment in these high-elevation environments. Dendroecological techniques were used to reconstruct a 420-year history of regeneration dynamics within upper treeline ecotones along a latitudinal gradient (approximately 44-35 degrees N) in the Rocky Mountains. Correlation analysis was used to assess the possible influence of minimum and maximum temperature indices and cool-season (November-April) precipitation on regional age-structure data. Regime-shift analysis was used to detect thresholds in tree establishment during the entire period of record (1580-2000), temperature variables significantly Correlated with establishment during the 20th century, and cool-season precipitation. Tree establishment was significantly correlated with minimum temperature during the spring (March-May) and cool season. Regime-shift analysis identified an abrupt increase in regional tree establishment in 1950 (1950-1954 age class). Coincident with this period was a shift toward reduced cool-season precipitation. The alignment of these climate conditions apparently triggered an abrupt increase in establishment that was unprecedented during the period of record. Two main findings emerge from this research that underscore the critical role of climate in governing regeneration dynamics within upper treeline ecotones. (1) Regional climate variability is capable of exceeding bioclimatic thresholds, thereby initiating synchronous and abrupt changes in the spatial and temporal patterns of tree establishment at broad

  9. Theory and Design Tools For Studies of Reactions to Abrupt Changes in Noise Exposure

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fields, James M.; Ehrlich, Gary E.; Zador, Paul; Shepherd, Kevin P. (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    Study plans, a pre-tested questionnaire, a sample design evaluation tool, a community publicity monitoring plan, and a theoretical framework have been developed to support combined social/acoustical surveys of residents' reactions to an abrupt change in environmental noise, Secondary analyses of more than 20 previous surveys provide estimates of three parameters of a study simulation model; within individual variability, between study wave variability, and between neighborhood variability in response to community noise. The simulation model predicts the precision of the results from social surveys of reactions to noise, including changes in noise. When the study simulation model analyzed the population distribution, noise exposure environments and feasible noise measurement program at a proposed noise change survey site, it was concluded that the site could not yield sufficient precise estimates of human reaction model to justify conducting a survey. Additional secondary analyses determined that noise reactions are affected by the season of the social survey.

  10. Extreme temperatures, foundation species, and abrupt ecosystem change: an example from an iconic seagrass ecosystem.

    PubMed

    Thomson, Jordan A; Burkholder, Derek A; Heithaus, Michael R; Fourqurean, James W; Fraser, Matthew W; Statton, John; Kendrick, Gary A

    2015-04-01

    Extreme climatic events can trigger abrupt and often lasting change in ecosystems via the reduction or elimination of foundation (i.e., habitat-forming) species. However, while the frequency/intensity of extreme events is predicted to increase under climate change, the impact of these events on many foundation species and the ecosystems they support remains poorly understood. Here, we use the iconic seagrass meadows of Shark Bay, Western Australia--a relatively pristine subtropical embayment whose dominant, canopy-forming seagrass, Amphibolis antarctica, is a temperate species growing near its low-latitude range limit--as a model system to investigate the impacts of extreme temperatures on ecosystems supported by thermally sensitive foundation species in a changing climate. Following an unprecedented marine heat wave in late summer 2010/11, A. antarctica experienced catastrophic (>90%) dieback in several regions of Shark Bay. Animal-borne video footage taken from the perspective of resident, seagrass-associated megafauna (sea turtles) revealed severe habitat degradation after the event compared with a decade earlier. This reduction in habitat quality corresponded with a decline in the health status of largely herbivorous green turtles (Chelonia mydas) in the 2 years following the heat wave, providing evidence of long-term, community-level impacts of the event. Based on these findings, and similar examples from diverse ecosystems, we argue that a generalized framework for assessing the vulnerability of ecosystems to abrupt change associated with the loss of foundation species is needed to accurately predict ecosystem trajectories in a changing climate. This includes seagrass meadows, which have received relatively little attention in this context. Novel research and monitoring methods, such as the analysis of habitat and environmental data from animal-borne video and data-logging systems, can make an important contribution to this framework.

  11. Meteorological hazard assessment based on trends and abrupt changes in rainfall characteristics on the Korean peninsula

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sung, Jang Hyun; Chung, Eun-Sung; Kim, Yeonjoo; Lee, Bo-Ram

    2017-01-01

    This study presents a statistical approach for assessing meteorological hazards based on trends and abrupt changes in precipitation characteristics. Daily rainfall data from 64 stations in South Korea (SK) and 27 stations in North Korea (NK) were used to identify temporal patterns in the rainfall characteristics of both regions using seven rainfall indices, such as the total annual rainfall and annual number of wet days. This study suggests the use of three steps in identifying meteorological hazards based on two statistical analyses. In step 1, we conducted a trend analysis of a 10-year moving average of the rainfall index using the Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test. Most stations (65.6 %) in SK exhibit clear increasing trends in five indices, whereas far fewer have data indicating any trends in five of the indices in NK (25.9 %). In step 2, abrupt changes in all rainfall indices were identified using a Bayesian Change Point (BCP) approach. The results contradict those from the MK trend analysis. The proportion of stations in NK where trends were identified is much higher than that in SK. In step 3, the results from the two previous steps were integrated to identify the meteorological hazards based on the identified trend and change point. The BCP approach can be used to identify meteorological hazards that MK cannot, as the former approach focuses on the change point during the entire period. As a result, meteorological stability at the sites of weather stations can be identified, and then the meteorological hazards across the entire Korean peninsula can be spatially interpolated. Although SK and NK are located on the same peninsula, distinct differences in the trends were observed.

  12. Fisheries portfolio diversification and turnover buffer Alaskan fishing communities from abrupt resource and market changes

    PubMed Central

    Cline, Timothy J.; Schindler, Daniel E.; Hilborn, Ray

    2017-01-01

    Abrupt shifts in natural resources and their markets are a ubiquitous challenge to human communities. Building resilient social-ecological systems requires approaches that are robust to uncertainty and to regime shifts. Harvesting diverse portfolios of natural resources and adapting portfolios in response to change could stabilize economies reliant on natural resources and their markets, both of which are prone to unpredictable shifts. Here we use fisheries catch and revenue data from Alaskan fishing communities over 34 years to test whether diversification and turnover in the composition of fishing opportunities increased economic stability during major ocean and market regime shifts in 1989. More than 85% of communities show reduced fishing revenues following these regime shifts. However, communities with the highest portfolio diversity and those that could opportunistically shift the composition of resources they harvest, experienced negligible or even positive changes in revenue. Maintaining diversity in economic opportunities and enabling turnover facilitates sustainability of communities reliant on renewable resources facing uncertain futures. PMID:28091534

  13. Fisheries portfolio diversification and turnover buffer Alaskan fishing communities from abrupt resource and market changes.

    PubMed

    Cline, Timothy J; Schindler, Daniel E; Hilborn, Ray

    2017-01-16

    Abrupt shifts in natural resources and their markets are a ubiquitous challenge to human communities. Building resilient social-ecological systems requires approaches that are robust to uncertainty and to regime shifts. Harvesting diverse portfolios of natural resources and adapting portfolios in response to change could stabilize economies reliant on natural resources and their markets, both of which are prone to unpredictable shifts. Here we use fisheries catch and revenue data from Alaskan fishing communities over 34 years to test whether diversification and turnover in the composition of fishing opportunities increased economic stability during major ocean and market regime shifts in 1989. More than 85% of communities show reduced fishing revenues following these regime shifts. However, communities with the highest portfolio diversity and those that could opportunistically shift the composition of resources they harvest, experienced negligible or even positive changes in revenue. Maintaining diversity in economic opportunities and enabling turnover facilitates sustainability of communities reliant on renewable resources facing uncertain futures.

  14. North Atlantic ocean circulation and abrupt climate change during the last glaciation.

    PubMed

    Henry, L G; McManus, J F; Curry, W B; Roberts, N L; Piotrowski, A M; Keigwin, L D

    2016-07-29

    The most recent ice age was characterized by rapid and hemispherically asynchronous climate oscillations, whose origin remains unresolved. Variations in oceanic meridional heat transport may contribute to these repeated climate changes, which were most pronounced during marine isotope stage 3, the glacial interval 25 thousand to 60 thousand years ago. We examined climate and ocean circulation proxies throughout this interval at high resolution in a deep North Atlantic sediment core, combining the kinematic tracer protactinium/thorium (Pa/Th) with the deep water-mass tracer, epibenthic δ(13)C. These indicators suggest reduced Atlantic overturning circulation during every cool northern stadial, with the greatest reductions during episodic Hudson Strait iceberg discharges, while sharp northern warming followed reinvigorated overturning. These results provide direct evidence for the ocean's persistent, central role in abrupt glacial climate change.

  15. North Atlantic ocean circulation and abrupt climate change during the last glaciation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henry, L. G.; McManus, J. F.; Curry, W. B.; Roberts, N. L.; Piotrowski, A. M.; Keigwin, L. D.

    2016-07-01

    The most recent ice age was characterized by rapid and hemispherically asynchronous climate oscillations, whose origin remains unresolved. Variations in oceanic meridional heat transport may contribute to these repeated climate changes, which were most pronounced during marine isotope stage 3, the glacial interval 25 thousand to 60 thousand years ago. We examined climate and ocean circulation proxies throughout this interval at high resolution in a deep North Atlantic sediment core, combining the kinematic tracer protactinium/thorium (Pa/Th) with the deep water-mass tracer, epibenthic δ13C. These indicators suggest reduced Atlantic overturning circulation during every cool northern stadial, with the greatest reductions during episodic Hudson Strait iceberg discharges, while sharp northern warming followed reinvigorated overturning. These results provide direct evidence for the ocean’s persistent, central role in abrupt glacial climate change.

  16. Abrupt change in radiation-width distribution for 147Sm neutron resonances.

    PubMed

    Koehler, P E; Reifarth, R; Ullmann, J L; Bredeweg, T A; O'Donnell, J M; Rundberg, R S; Vieira, D J; Wouters, J M

    2012-04-06

    We obtained the total radiation widths of s-wave resonances through an R-matrix analysis of (147)Sm(n,γ) cross sections. Distributions of these widths differ markedly for resonances below and above E(n)=300 eV, which is in stark contrast to long-established theory. We show that this change, as well as a similar change in the neutron-width distribution reported previously, is reflected in abrupt increases in both the average (147)Sm(n,γ) cross section and fluctuations about the average near 300 eV. Such effects could have important consequences for applications such as nuclear astrophysics and nuclear criticality safety.

  17. ABRUPT LONGITUDINAL MAGNETIC FIELD CHANGES AND ULTRAVIOLET EMISSIONS ACCOMPANYING SOLAR FLARES

    SciTech Connect

    Johnstone, B. M.; Petrie, G. J. D.; Sudol, J. J.

    2012-11-20

    We have used Transition Region and Coronal Explorer 1600 A images and Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) magnetograms to compare ultraviolet (UV) emissions from the chromosphere to longitudinal magnetic field changes in the photosphere during four X-class solar flares. An abrupt, significant, and persistent change in the magnetic field occurred across more than 10 pixels in the GONG magnetograms for each flare. These magnetic changes lagged the GOES flare start times in all cases, showing that they were consequences and not causes of the flares. Ultraviolet emissions were spatially coincident with the field changes. The UV emissions tended to lag the GOES start times for the flares and led the changes in the magnetic field in all pixels except one. The UV emissions led the photospheric field changes by 4 minutes on average with the longest lead being 9 minutes; however, the UV emissions continued for tens of minutes, and more than an hour in some cases, after the field changes were complete. The observations are consistent with the picture in which an Alfven wave from the field reconnection site in the corona propagates field changes outward in all directions near the onset of the impulsive phase, including downward through the chromosphere and into the photosphere, causing the photospheric field changes, whereas the chromosphere emits in the UV in the form of flare kernels, ribbons, and sequential chromospheric brightenings during all phases of the flare.

  18. Climatic and Societal Causes for Abrupt Environmental Change in the Mediterranean During the Common Era

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mensing, S. A.; Tunno, I.; Sagnotti, L.; Florindo, F.; Noble, P. J.; Archer, C.; Zimmerman, S. R. H.; Pavón-Carrasco, F. J.; Cifnani, G.; Passigli, S.; Piovesan, G.

    2015-12-01

    We compare climatic and societal causes for abrupt environmental change for the last 2000 years in the Rieti Basin, central Italy using high-resolution sedimentary paleoenvironmental proxies, historical documents, and annually resolved independent climate reconstructions of temperature and precipitation. Pollen zones, identified from temporally constrained cluster analysis, coincide with historic periods developed from well-established ceramic sequences corresponding to the Roman Imperial through Late Antique (1 to 600 CE) Early Medieval (600 to 875 CE), Medieval through Late Medieval (875 to 1400 CE), Renaissance and Modern (1400 to 1725 CE), and Contemporary periods (1725 CE to present). Non-metric dimensional scaling (NMDS) ordination showed that each temporal period occupied a unique ecologic space suggesting that a new landscape was created during each successive historic period. During Roman time, between 1 and 500 CE, a modest decline in forest coincides with a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and drier climate; however mesophyllous forest is preserved. Steep decline in forest cover between 850 and 950 CE coincides with positive temperature anomalies in Europe and a positive NAO. Although this would seem to suggest climate as a cause, temperature and precipitation changes are modest and the magnitude and rapidity of the vegetation change suggests climate played a small role. Archaeological evidence from across Europe identifies socioeconomic factors that produced forest clearing. In contrast, cooler temperatures and a negative NAO (increased ppt) appears to have been a catalyst for land abandonment and forest recovery in the 13th to 14th centuries. The NAO produces opposite effects on societies in the eastern and western Mediterranean with the negative phase in 1400 CE leading to cool wet climate and land abandonment in central Italy but an abrupt shift to drier conditions and change from sedentary village life to nomadism in Syria.

  19. Final Scientific Report for "The Interhemispheric Pattern in 20th Century and Future Abrupt Change in Regional Tropical Rainfall"

    SciTech Connect

    Chiang, John C. H.; Wehner, Michael F.

    2012-10-29

    This is the final scientific report for grant DOE-FG02-08ER64588, "The Interhemispheric Pattern in 20th Century and Future Abrupt Change in Regional Tropical Rainfall."The project investigates the role of the interhemispheric pattern in surface temperature – i.e. the contrast between the northern and southern temperature changes – in driving rapid changes to tropical rainfall changes over the 20th century and future climates. Previous observational and modeling studies have shown that the tropical rainband – the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) over marine regions, and the summer monsoonal rainfall over land – are sensitive to the interhemispheric thermal contrast; but that the link between the two has not been applied to interpreting long-term tropical rainfall changes over the 20th century and future.The specific goals of the project were to i) develop dynamical mechanisms to explain the link between the interhemispheric pattern to abrupt changes of West African and Asian monsoonal rainfall; ii) Undertake a formal detection and attribution study on the interhemispheric pattern in 20th century climate; and iii) assess the likelihood of changes to this pattern in the future. In line with these goals, our project has produced the following significant results: 1.We have developed a case that suggests that the well-known abrupt weakening of the West African monsoon in the late 1960s was part of a wider co-ordinated weakening of the West African and Asian monsoons, and driven from an abrupt cooling in the high latitude North Atlantic sea surface temperature at the same time. Our modeling work suggests that the high-latitude North Atlantic cooling is effective in driving monsoonal weakening, through driving a cooling of the Northern hemisphere that is amplified by positive radiative feedbacks. 2.We have shown that anthropogenic sulfate aerosols may have partially contributed to driving a progressively southward displacement of the Atlantic Intertropical

  20. Antarctic Forcing of Abrupt Global Climate Change During Isotope Stage 3

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turney, Christian; Jones, Richard; Phipps, Steven; Thomas, Zoë; Hogg, Alan; Kershaw, Peter; Fogwill, Christopher; Palmer, Jonathan; Bronk Ramsey, Christopher; Adolphi, Florian; Muscheler, Raimund; Hughen, Konrad; Staff, Richard; Grosvenor, Mark; Golledge, Nicholas; Haberle, Simon

    2016-04-01

    Contrasting Greenland and Antarctic temperature trends during the late Pleistocene (60,000 to 11,650 years ago) are thought to be driven by imbalances in the rate of formation of North Atlantic and Antarctic Deep Water (the 'bipolar seesaw'), with millennial-scale cooling Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events in the north leading warming in the south. An alternative origin for these abrupt climate shifts, however, is the Southern Hemisphere whereby changes are transmitted globally via atmospheric and/or oceanic teleconnections. Testing these competing hypotheses is challenging given the relatively large uncertainties associated with dating terrestrial, marine and ice core chronologies. Here we use a fully coupled climate system model to investigate whether freshening of the Southern Ocean has extra-regional climate impacts. Focusing on an Isotope Stage 3 cooling event preserved in Antarctic ice cores immediately prior to Antarctic Isotope Maximum 4 (AIM 4; around 29,000 years ago) we undertook an ensemble of transient meltwater simulations. We observe no impact on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) from freshwater hosing in the Southern Ocean but a dramatic warming over the North Atlantic and contrasting precipitation patterns across the low latitudes. Exploiting a new bidecadally-resolved 14C calibration dataset obtained from New Zealand kauri (Agathis australis) we undertook intensive radiocarbon dating and high-resolution multiproxy analysis of the tropical Australia Lynch's Crater terrestrial peat sequence spanning this same period and find a synchronous change in hydroclimate to the purported meltwater event in the Southern Ocean. Our results imply Southern Ocean dynamics played a significant role in driving global climate change across this period via atmospheric teleconnections, with implications for other abrupt events through the late Pleistocene.

  1. Laurentide Ice Sheet meltwater and abrupt climate change during the last glaciation

    SciTech Connect

    Hill, H W; Flower, B P; Quinn, T M; Hollander, D J; Guilderson, T P

    2005-10-02

    A leading hypothesis to explain abrupt climate change during the last glacial cycle calls on fluctuations in the margin of the North American Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS), which may have routed freshwater between the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) and North Atlantic, affecting North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) variability and regional climate. Paired measurements of {delta}O and Mg/Ca of foraminiferal calcite from GOM sediments reveal five episodes of LIS meltwater input from 28-45 thousand years ago (ka) that do not match the millennial-scale Dansgaard-Oeschger (D/O) warmings recorded in Greenland ice. We suggest that summer melting of the LIS may occur during Antarctic warming and likely contributed to sea-level variability during Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3).

  2. An astronomical correspondence to the 1470 year cycle of abrupt climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kelsey, A. M.; Menk, F. W.; Moss, P. T.

    2015-10-01

    The existence of a ~ 1470 year cycle of abrupt climate change is well-established, manifesting in Bond ice-rafting debris (IRD) events, Dansgaard-Oeschger atmospheric temperature cycle, and cyclical climatic conditions precursory to increased El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability and intensity. This cycle is central to questions on Holocene climate stability and hence anthropogenic impacts on climate (deMenocal et al., 2000). To date no causal mechanism has been identified, although solar forcing has been previously suggested. Here we show that interacting combination of astronomical variables related to Earth's orbit may be causally related to this cycle and several associated key isotopic spectral signals. The ~ 1470 year climate cycle may thus be regarded as a high frequency extension of the Milankovitch precessional cycle, incorporating orbital, solar and lunar forcing through interaction with the tropical and anomalistic years and Earth's rotation.

  3. Abrupt climate change and transient climates during the Paleogene: a marine perspective

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zachos, J. C.; Lohmann, K. C.; Walker, J. C.; Wise, S. W.

    1993-01-01

    Detailed investigations of high latitude sequences recently collected by the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) indicate that periods of rapid climate change often culminated in brief transient climates, with more extreme conditions than subsequent long term climates. Two examples of such events have been identified in the Paleogene; the first in latest Paleocene time in the middle of a warming trend that began several million years earlier: the second in earliest Oligocene time near the end of a Middle Eocene to Late Oligocene global cooling trend. Superimposed on the earlier event was a sudden and extreme warming of both high latitude sea surface and deep ocean waters. Imbedded in the latter transition was an abrupt decline in high latitude temperatures and the brief appearance of a full size continental ice-sheet on Antarctica. In both cases the climate extremes were not stable, lasting for less than a few hundred thousand years, indicating a temporary or transient climate state. Geochemical and sedimentological evidence suggest that both Paleogene climate events were accompanied by reorganizations in ocean circulation, and major perturbations in marine productivity and the global carbon cycle. The Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum was marked by reduced oceanic turnover and decreases in global delta 13C and in marine productivity, while the Early Oligocene glacial maximum was accompanied by intensification of deep ocean circulation and elevated delta 13C and productivity. It has been suggested that sudden changes in climate and/or ocean circulation might occur as a result of gradual forcing as certain physical thresholds are exceeded. We investigate the possibility that sudden reorganizations in ocean and/or atmosphere circulation during these abrupt transitions generated short-term positive feedbacks that briefly sustained these transient climatic states.

  4. Abrupt climate change and transient climates during the Paleogene: a marine perspective.

    PubMed

    Zachos, J C; Lohmann, K C; Walker, J C; Wise, S W

    1993-03-01

    Detailed investigations of high latitude sequences recently collected by the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) indicate that periods of rapid climate change often culminated in brief transient climates, with more extreme conditions than subsequent long term climates. Two examples of such events have been identified in the Paleogene; the first in latest Paleocene time in the middle of a warming trend that began several million years earlier: the second in earliest Oligocene time near the end of a Middle Eocene to Late Oligocene global cooling trend. Superimposed on the earlier event was a sudden and extreme warming of both high latitude sea surface and deep ocean waters. Imbedded in the latter transition was an abrupt decline in high latitude temperatures and the brief appearance of a full size continental ice-sheet on Antarctica. In both cases the climate extremes were not stable, lasting for less than a few hundred thousand years, indicating a temporary or transient climate state. Geochemical and sedimentological evidence suggest that both Paleogene climate events were accompanied by reorganizations in ocean circulation, and major perturbations in marine productivity and the global carbon cycle. The Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum was marked by reduced oceanic turnover and decreases in global delta 13C and in marine productivity, while the Early Oligocene glacial maximum was accompanied by intensification of deep ocean circulation and elevated delta 13C and productivity. It has been suggested that sudden changes in climate and/or ocean circulation might occur as a result of gradual forcing as certain physical thresholds are exceeded. We investigate the possibility that sudden reorganizations in ocean and/or atmosphere circulation during these abrupt transitions generated short-term positive feedbacks that briefly sustained these transient climatic states.

  5. Abrupt pre-Bølling-Allerød warming and circulation changes in the deep ocean.

    PubMed

    Thiagarajan, Nivedita; Subhas, Adam V; Southon, John R; Eiler, John M; Adkins, Jess F

    2014-07-03

    Several large and rapid changes in atmospheric temperature and the partial pressure of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere--probably linked to changes in deep ocean circulation--occurred during the last deglaciation. The abrupt temperature rise in the Northern Hemisphere and the restart of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at the start of the Bølling-Allerød interstadial, 14,700 years ago, are among the most dramatic deglacial events, but their underlying physical causes are not known. Here we show that the release of heat from warm waters in the deep North Atlantic Ocean probably triggered the Bølling-Allerød warming and reinvigoration of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Our results are based on coupled radiocarbon and uranium-series dates, along with clumped isotope temperature estimates, from water column profiles of fossil deep-sea corals in a limited area of the western North Atlantic. We find that during Heinrich stadial 1 (the cool period immediately before the Bølling-Allerød interstadial), the deep ocean was about three degrees Celsius warmer than shallower waters above. This reversal of the ocean's usual thermal stratification pre-dates the Bølling-Allerød warming and must have been associated with increased salinity at depth to preserve the static stability of the water column. The depleted radiocarbon content of the warm and salty water mass implies a long-term disconnect from rapid surface exchanges, and, although uncertainties remain, is most consistent with a Southern Ocean source. The Heinrich stadial 1 ocean profile is distinct from the modern water column, that for the Last Glacial Maximum and that for the Younger Dryas, suggesting that the patterns we observe are a unique feature of the deglacial climate system. Our observations indicate that the deep ocean influenced dramatic Northern Hemisphere warming by storing heat at depth that preconditioned the system for a subsequent abrupt overturning event during the

  6. Abrupt Climate Change in the Arctic (and Beyond): An Update (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alley, R. B.

    2013-12-01

    Our understanding of future Arctic change is informed by the history of past changes, which often have been both large and abrupt. The well-known ice-age events such as the Younger Dryas show how sea-ice changes can amplify forcing to produce very large responses, with wintertime sea ice especially important. These changes are increasingly seen to have played a central role in the ice-age cycling through their global impact on CO2 storage in the deep ocean. The Heinrich events reveal processes of ice-sheet/ocean interaction, some of which are being played out in Greenland and Antarctica now, and which may have large future effects on sea-level rise. The paleoclimatic record plus physical understanding greatly reduce the worst worries about instabilities from methane stored in cold places, but tend to support a role in amplifying future warming. Overall, the very large impacts of past Arctic changes, and the likelihood that future changes under business-as-usual fossil-fuel emissions will be unprecedented in combined size and speed, raise important questions.

  7. Agriculture, Settlement, and Abrupt Climate Change: The 4.2ka BP event in Northern Mesopotamia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ristvet, L.

    2003-12-01

    An abrupt aridification event at 4200 BP has been recorded in 41 paleoclimate proxies in the Old World, from Kilmanjaro, Tanzania to Rajasthan, India, East Asia and the Pacific. This event is particularly well defined for Western Asia, where it has been associated with the abandonment of settlements across the Fertile Crescent and the collapse of states on the Levantine coast and in the dry-farming plains of Northern Mesopotamia, including the Akkadian Empire. Adaptations to climate change are constrained by both local environmental and social factors. Agriculturalists, especially those living in pre-industrial societies, are particularly susceptible to changes in precipitation. The Tell Leilan Regional Survey, which systematically studied sites in a 1650km2 area of Northeastern Syria, records one set of adaptations to this event in an area where dry-farming provided the subsistence base. The survey transect crosses ecotones, from the present 500mm isohyet in the North to the 250mm isohyet in the South, and contains diverse wadi systems, ground water resources, soil profiles, and an ancient marsh/lake-- all of which allow this region to be taken as a microcosm of Northern Mesopotamia. In order to contextualize our study of human response to abrupt climate change, it is necessary to consider how the economic and social systems that were previously in place were transformed by this event. This study attempts to quantify climate change and model its effects on agricultural, pastoral, and settlement systems in Northeastern Syria from 2400-1700 BC. From 2400-2300 BC, optimal climate conditions coincided with the consolidation of an indigenous state. The next century witnessed the Akkadian conquest and imperialization of the Habur plains, which resulted in both the intensification and extensification of agro-production. During the next 300 years, (2200-1900 BC), rainfall plummeted to 70% of the climatic optimum, triggering the abandonment of cities along with their

  8. Impact of abrupt deglacial climate change on tropical Atlantic subsurface temperatures.

    PubMed

    Schmidt, Matthew W; Chang, Ping; Hertzberg, Jennifer E; Them, Theodore R; Ji, Link; J, Link; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L

    2012-09-04

    Both instrumental data analyses and coupled ocean-atmosphere models indicate that Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability is tightly linked to abrupt tropical North Atlantic (TNA) climate change through both atmospheric and oceanic processes. Although a slowdown of AMOC results in an atmospheric-induced surface cooling in the entire TNA, the subsurface experiences an even larger warming because of rapid reorganizations of ocean circulation patterns at intermediate water depths. Here, we reconstruct high-resolution temperature records using oxygen isotope values and Mg/Ca ratios in both surface- and subthermocline-dwelling planktonic foraminifera from a sediment core located in the TNA over the last 22 ky. Our results show significant changes in the vertical thermal gradient of the upper water column, with the warmest subsurface temperatures of the last deglacial transition corresponding to the onset of the Younger Dryas. Furthermore, we present new analyses of a climate model simulation forced with freshwater discharge into the North Atlantic under Last Glacial Maximum forcings and boundary conditions that reveal a maximum subsurface warming in the vicinity of the core site and a vertical thermal gradient change at the onset of AMOC weakening, consistent with the reconstructed record. Together, our proxy reconstructions and modeling results provide convincing evidence for a subsurface oceanic teleconnection linking high-latitude North Atlantic climate to the tropical Atlantic during periods of reduced AMOC across the last deglacial transition.

  9. Impact of abrupt deglacial climate change on tropical Atlantic subsurface temperatures

    PubMed Central

    Schmidt, Matthew W.; Chang, Ping; Hertzberg, Jennifer E.; Them, Theodore R.; Ji, Link; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.

    2012-01-01

    Both instrumental data analyses and coupled ocean-atmosphere models indicate that Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability is tightly linked to abrupt tropical North Atlantic (TNA) climate change through both atmospheric and oceanic processes. Although a slowdown of AMOC results in an atmospheric-induced surface cooling in the entire TNA, the subsurface experiences an even larger warming because of rapid reorganizations of ocean circulation patterns at intermediate water depths. Here, we reconstruct high-resolution temperature records using oxygen isotope values and Mg/Ca ratios in both surface- and subthermocline-dwelling planktonic foraminifera from a sediment core located in the TNA over the last 22 ky. Our results show significant changes in the vertical thermal gradient of the upper water column, with the warmest subsurface temperatures of the last deglacial transition corresponding to the onset of the Younger Dryas. Furthermore, we present new analyses of a climate model simulation forced with freshwater discharge into the North Atlantic under Last Glacial Maximum forcings and boundary conditions that reveal a maximum subsurface warming in the vicinity of the core site and a vertical thermal gradient change at the onset of AMOC weakening, consistent with the reconstructed record. Together, our proxy reconstructions and modeling results provide convincing evidence for a subsurface oceanic teleconnection linking high-latitude North Atlantic climate to the tropical Atlantic during periods of reduced AMOC across the last deglacial transition. PMID:22908256

  10. Monitoring and condition-based maintenance with abrupt change in a system's deterioration rate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fouladirad, Mitra; Grall, Antoine

    2015-09-01

    In this paper, the maintenance of a system which undergoes a change in its deterioration rate is considered. The time of change of regime and the parameters after the change are unknown. To deal with unknown change time and unknown parameters, a detection procedure based on a suitable online change detection algorithm is used. The paper proposes a maintenance decision rule versus detection policy in order to minimise the long-run average maintenance cost, and the performances of this policy are studied through numerical implementations.

  11. Antarctic Forcing of Abrupt Global Climate Change during Oxygen Isotope Stage 3.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turney, C. S.; Palmer, J. G.

    2015-12-01

    Contrasting Greenland and Antarctic temperature trends during the late Pleistocene (60 to 11.5 ka) are thought to be driven by imbalances in the rate of formation of North Atlantic and Antarctic deep water (the 'bipolar seesaw'), with millennial-scale cooling Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events in the north leading warming in the south. Robustly testing this paradigm, however, requires a level of chronological precision currently lacking in terrestrial and marine records. Here we report a bidecadally-resolved New Zealand tree-ring sequence spanning two millennia that preserves a record of atmospheric radiocarbon (14C), allowing us to precisely align terrestrial, marine and ice sequences across a period encompassing ice-rafted debris event Heinrich 3 (H3) in the North Atlantic and Antarctic Isotope Maximum 4 (AIM4) in the Southern Hemisphere. We observe no significant difference in atmospheric and marine 14C records across H3 suggesting negligible impact on Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) but find that a climate downturn before AIM4 had a global impact, with warming in the North Atlantic (D-O 5.1) and a dramatic change in low latitude hydroclimate. Using the fully coupled CSIRO Mk3L climate system model we find that these trends are consistent with an Antarctic meltwater event propagated globally by atmospheric teleconnections. Our results suggest Southern Ocean dynamics played a significant role in driving global climate change across this period with implications for abrupt events through the late Pleistocene.

  12. Macrosegregation in Al-7Si alloy caused by abrupt cross-section change during directional solidification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghods, M.; Johnson, L.; Lauer, M.; Grugel, R. N.; Tewari, S. N.; Poirier, D. R.

    2016-09-01

    Hypoeutectic Al-7 wt .% Si alloys were directionally solidified vertically downward in cylindrical molds that incorporated an abrupt cross-section decrease (9.5 mm to 3.2 mm diameter) which, after 5 cm, reverted back to 9.5 mm diameter in a Bridgman furnace; two constant growth speeds and thermal gradients were investigated. Thermosolutal convection and cross-section-change-induced shrinkage flow effects on macrosegregation were investigated. Dendrite clustering and extensive radial macrosegregation was seen, particularly in the larger cross-sections, before contraction and after expansion, this more evident at the lower growth speed. This alloy shows positive longitudinal macrosegregation near cross-section decrease followed by negative macrosegregation right after it; the extent of macrosegregation, however, decreases with increasing growth speed. Primary dendrite steepling intensified as solidification proceeded into the narrower section and negative longitudinal macrosegregation was seen on the re-entrant shelves at expansion. A two-dimensional model accounting for both shrinkage and thermo-solutal convection was used to simulate solidification and the resulting mushy-zone steepling and macrosegregation. The experimentally observed longitudinal and radial macrosegregation associated with the cross-section changes during directional solidification of an Al-7Si alloy is well captured by the numerical simulations.

  13. Slowing down of North Pacific climate variability and its implications for abrupt ecosystem change.

    PubMed

    Boulton, Chris A; Lenton, Timothy M

    2015-09-15

    Marine ecosystems are sensitive to stochastic environmental variability, with higher-amplitude, lower-frequency--i.e., "redder"--variability posing a greater threat of triggering large ecosystem changes. Here we show that fluctuations in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index have slowed down markedly over the observational record (1900-present), as indicated by a robust increase in autocorrelation. This "reddening" of the spectrum of climate variability is also found in regionally averaged North Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs), and can be at least partly explained by observed deepening of the ocean mixed layer. The progressive reddening of North Pacific climate variability has important implications for marine ecosystems. Ecosystem variables that respond linearly to climate forcing will have become prone to much larger variations over the observational record, whereas ecosystem variables that respond nonlinearly to climate forcing will have become prone to more frequent "regime shifts." Thus, slowing down of North Pacific climate variability can help explain the large magnitude and potentially the quick succession of well-known abrupt changes in North Pacific ecosystems in 1977 and 1989. When looking ahead, despite model limitations in simulating mixed layer depth (MLD) in the North Pacific, global warming is robustly expected to decrease MLD. This could potentially reverse the observed trend of slowing down of North Pacific climate variability and its effects on marine ecosystems.

  14. North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and Abrupt Climate Change through the Last Glaciation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henry, G., III; McManus, J. F.; Curry, W. B.; Keigwin, L. D.; Giosan, L.

    2014-12-01

    The climate of the glacial North Atlantic was punctuated by catastrophic discharges of icebergs (Heinrich events), as well as by more mysterious, abrupt warming events associated with Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillations. These events are suspected to be related to changes in AMOC and its influence on heat transport and the regional and global heat budget. Investigation of these rapid oscillations is often limited by the resolution of sediment records. High accumulation rates at our study site (33.69°N, 57.58°W, 4583m water depth) on the Bermuda Rise allow improved resolution by one to two orders of magnitude. Cores CDH19 (38.81m) and CDH13 (36.70m), were recovered during KNR191, the initial deployment of the RV Knorr's long coring system developed at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution with support from the NSF. These cores contain high quality sediment sections that allow high resolution studies extending through the last glacial cycle at a key location for monitoring past oceanographic and climatic variability. Here we present detailed multi-proxy data from Bermuda Rise sediments reflecting deep ocean chemistry and dynamics of the last glaciation, and combine them with published data to produce a continuous, high resolution record spanning the last 70,000 years. CaCO3 burial fluxes, foraminifera stable isotopes, and sedimentary uranium-series disequilibria (including seawater-derived 231Pa /230Th), display coherent, complementary variability throughout the last glaciation. Glacial values in each proxy are consistent with reduced ventilation and overturning compared to the Holocene, with intervals that indicate substantial millennial reductions in each, and others when they briefly approach Holocene levels. In multiple instances, particularly spanning interstadials eight through twelve (IS8-IS12) our results are consistent with an abrupt, subcentennial acceleration in the export of excess 231Pa from the North Atlantic during stadial-interstadial transitions

  15. Effects on the equine colon ecosystem of grass silage and haylage diets after an abrupt change from hay.

    PubMed

    Muhonen, S; Julliand, V; Lindberg, J E; Bertilsson, J; Jansson, A

    2009-07-01

    The objective of this study was to investigate the effect of an abrupt change from grass hay (81% DM) to grass silage (36% DM) or grass haylage (55% DM), fed at similar DM intakes, and to compare the effects of silage and haylage on the composition and activities of the colon microflora. The forages were from the same swath harvested on the same day. Four adult colon-fistulated geldings were randomly assigned to diets in a crossover design. The study started with a preperiod when all 4 horses received the hay diet, followed by an abrupt feed change to the haylage diet for 2 horses and the silage diet for 2 horses. All 4 horses then had a new second preperiod of hay, followed by an abrupt feed change to the opposite haylage and silage diet. The periods were 21 d long, and the forage-only diets were supplemented with minerals and salt. The abrupt feed changes were made at 0800 h. Colon samples were taken before the abrupt feed change, 4 and 28 h after the feed change, and 8, 15, and 21 d after the feed change, all at 1200 h. Colon bacterial counts, VFA, pH, and DM concentrations were unchanged throughout the first 28 h after the abrupt feed change from hay to haylage and silage. Also, fecal pH and DM concentrations were unchanged during the first 28 h. During the weekly observations, colon lactobacilli counts increased (P = 0.023) in horses receiving the silage diet and were greater than on the haylage diet at 21 d. Streptococci counts decreased (P = 0.046) in horses receiving the haylage diet and were less than on the silage diet at 15 and 21 d. Total VFA concentrations and colon and fecal pH did not differ between diets and were unchanged throughout the weekly observations. The DM concentration of colon digesta and feces decreased (P = 0.030 and 0.049, respectively) on both diets during the weekly observations. The results suggest that in horses fed at the maintenance level of energy intake, an abrupt feed change from grass hay to grass silage or grass haylage from

  16. Abrupt along-strike change in tectonic style: San Andreas fault zone, San Francisco Peninsula

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Zoback, M.L.; Jachens, R.C.; Olson, J.A.

    1999-01-01

    Seismicity and high-resolution aeromagnetic data are used to define an abrupt change from compressional to extensional tectonism within a 10- to 15-km-wide zone along the San Andreas fault on the San Francisco Peninsula and offshore from the Golden Gate. This 100-km-long section of the San Andreas fault includes the hypocenter of the Mw = 7.8 1906 San Francisco earthquake as well as the highest level of persistent microseismicity along that ???470-km-long rupture. We define two distinct zones of deformation along this stretch of the fault using well-constrained relocations of all post-1969 earthquakes based a joint one-dimensional velocity/hypocenter inversion and a redetermination of focal mechanisms. The southern zone is characterized by thrust- and reverse-faulting focal mechanisms with NE trending P axes that indicate "fault-normal" compression in 7- to 10-km-wide zones of deformation on both sides of the San Andreas fault. A 1- to 2-km-wide vertical zone beneath the surface trace of the San Andreas is characterized by its almost complete lack of seismicity. The compressional deformation is consistent with the young, high topography of the Santa Cruz Mountains/Coast Ranges as the San Andreas fault makes a broad restraining left bend (???10??) through the southernmost peninsula. A zone of seismic quiescence ???15 km long separates this compressional zone to the south from a zone of combined normal-faulting and strike-slip-faulting focal mechanisms (including a ML = 5.3 earthquake in 1957) on the northernmost peninsula and offshore on the Golden Gate platform. Both linear pseudo-gravity gradients, calculated from the aeromagnetic data, and seismic reflection data indicate that the San Andreas fault makes an abrupt ???3-km right step less than 5 km offshore in this northern zone. A similar right-stepping (dilatational) geometry is also observed for the subparallel San Gregorio fault offshore. Persistent seismicity and extensional tectonism occur within the San

  17. Abrupt response of chemical weathering to Late Quaternary hydroclimate changes in northeast Africa.

    PubMed

    Bastian, Luc; Revel, Marie; Bayon, Germain; Dufour, Aurélie; Vigier, Nathalie

    2017-03-14

    Chemical weathering of silicate rocks on continents acts as a major sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide and has played an important role in the evolution of the Earth's climate. However, the magnitude and the nature of the links between weathering and climate are still under debate. In particular, the timescale over which chemical weathering may respond to climate change is yet to be constrained at the continental scale. Here we reconstruct the relationships between rainfall and chemical weathering in northeast Africa for the last 32,000 years. Using lithium isotopes and other geochemical proxies in the clay-size fraction of a marine sediment core from the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, we show that chemical weathering in the Nile Basin fluctuated in parallel with the monsoon-related climatic evolution of northeast Africa. We also evidence strongly reduced mineral alteration during centennial-scale regional drought episodes. Our findings indicate that silicate weathering may respond as quickly as physical erosion to abrupt hydroclimate reorganization on continents. Consequently, we anticipate that the forthcoming hydrological disturbances predicted for northeast Africa may have a major impact on chemical weathering patterns and soil resources in this region.

  18. The Reversal of Time Sequence and abrupt direction change of Astrophysical Jets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gong, Biping

    2015-08-01

    The discrepancy in the propagation times from different parts of a moving source can result in an apparent transverse velocity exceeding the speed of light, which is the well known scenario of superluminal motion.This work shows that the same effect of time delay can even reverse the time sequence of appearance of components in a parsec-scale jets of active galactic nuclei like 3C 279. At such a scale, a component, reproduced somewhere in jet earlier but more distant from the observer, travels longer time to the observer, so that it can emerge later than those ones with shorter distance to the observer which actually generated later.Interestingly, this scenario well explains the increasing samples of abrupt change of jet direction exhibited by the long base line observation of jets of active galactic nuclei.Revealing such an effect of time reversal is of importance in the understanding of the nature of jets in different systems from active galactic nuclei to X-ray binaries.

  19. Abrupt response of chemical weathering to Late Quaternary hydroclimate changes in northeast Africa

    PubMed Central

    Bastian, Luc; Revel, Marie; Bayon, Germain; Dufour, Aurélie; Vigier, Nathalie

    2017-01-01

    Chemical weathering of silicate rocks on continents acts as a major sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide and has played an important role in the evolution of the Earth’s climate. However, the magnitude and the nature of the links between weathering and climate are still under debate. In particular, the timescale over which chemical weathering may respond to climate change is yet to be constrained at the continental scale. Here we reconstruct the relationships between rainfall and chemical weathering in northeast Africa for the last 32,000 years. Using lithium isotopes and other geochemical proxies in the clay-size fraction of a marine sediment core from the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, we show that chemical weathering in the Nile Basin fluctuated in parallel with the monsoon-related climatic evolution of northeast Africa. We also evidence strongly reduced mineral alteration during centennial-scale regional drought episodes. Our findings indicate that silicate weathering may respond as quickly as physical erosion to abrupt hydroclimate reorganization on continents. Consequently, we anticipate that the forthcoming hydrological disturbances predicted for northeast Africa may have a major impact on chemical weathering patterns and soil resources in this region. PMID:28290474

  20. Stalagmite-inferred abrupt hydroclimate changes in the central Mediterranean over the past 6500 years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, H. M.; Shen, C. C.; Jiang, X.; Wang, Y.; Mii, H. S.

    2015-12-01

    Mediterranean, as one of the global climate change "hot spots", was faced with severe drought over the recent decades. Investigation of regional paleo-hydroclimate evolution helps improve climate projection and adaption strategy. Here, we present a new decadal-resolved record documenting hydroclimate in the central Mediterranean from an Italian stalagmite since 6500 years ago. Eighty high-precision absolute U-Th dates with 2-sigma uncertainty better than ±20 years and 560 oxygen isotopic ratio data show several abrupt drying events with an average of 600 mm precipitation decrease in less than 80 years since the mid-Holocene. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) could dominantly govern the centennial-scale hydroclimate variability, especially for a period of 4500 to 2000 years ago. Total solar irradiance (TSI) also partially affected this regional precipitation. The obscure relationship between stalagmite and global/local mean surface temperature sequences, in contradict to previous studies, implies complex internal feedback of global warming and atmospheric circulation in the Mediterranean. Our result suggests that the twenty-first century Mediterranean drying trend is significant but not unprecedented in the past six thousand years.

  1. Abrupt response of chemical weathering to Late Quaternary hydroclimate changes in northeast Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bastian, Luc; Revel, Marie; Bayon, Germain; Dufour, Aurélie; Vigier, Nathalie

    2017-03-01

    Chemical weathering of silicate rocks on continents acts as a major sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide and has played an important role in the evolution of the Earth’s climate. However, the magnitude and the nature of the links between weathering and climate are still under debate. In particular, the timescale over which chemical weathering may respond to climate change is yet to be constrained at the continental scale. Here we reconstruct the relationships between rainfall and chemical weathering in northeast Africa for the last 32,000 years. Using lithium isotopes and other geochemical proxies in the clay-size fraction of a marine sediment core from the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, we show that chemical weathering in the Nile Basin fluctuated in parallel with the monsoon-related climatic evolution of northeast Africa. We also evidence strongly reduced mineral alteration during centennial-scale regional drought episodes. Our findings indicate that silicate weathering may respond as quickly as physical erosion to abrupt hydroclimate reorganization on continents. Consequently, we anticipate that the forthcoming hydrological disturbances predicted for northeast Africa may have a major impact on chemical weathering patterns and soil resources in this region.

  2. Unity of Science: from High-Energy Neutrinos to Abrupt Climate Change and Life in Ice

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Price, P. Buford

    2004-03-01

    These diverse topics exploit optical properties of micron-size particles in ice. AMANDA (Antarctic Muon and Neutrino Detector Array) searches for astrophysical sources of high-energy neutrinos by recording arrival times of Cherenkov light from their interaction products (muons and cascades) at phototubes in the 0.1 km^3 array in deep ice at the South Pole. Using pulsed lasers and LEDs in the array, we found that absorptivity and scattering of light in ice depend on dust concentration, which varies with depth due to dependence of dust concentration on global temperature at the time of deposition. Knowing dust concentration vs depth in AMANDA, we can fit muon tracks and locate neutrino sources to 1 arcdegree. As an AMANDA spinoff, we invented the Dust Logger, a new paleoclimatological instrument that emits laser light into glacial ice surrounding the borehole down which it is lowered. It records light that reenters the borehole after being partially absorbed and scattered by dust in the ice. This signal serves as an accurate proxy for global temperature as a function of time over a million years. The Dust Logger obtains a detailed time sequence of glacial and interglacial periods and of abrupt temperature changes that occur at millennial intervals. Occasional eruptions of nearby volcanoes punctuate the dust record with cm-thick ash layers in ice. We infer that strong volcanic eruptions lead to millennial-scale global coolings, most likely by dumping soluble iron- and acid-rich grains into nutrient-limited southern oceans, thus stimulating rapid growth of phytoplankton, which sequester carbon dioxide, a major greenhouse gas, from the atmosphere. Microbial cells are similar to dust in size and contain biomolecules that autofluoresce. We invented a BioSpectraLogger, which emits 224-nm laser light into ice and searches for fluorescence by microbes able to live in liquid veins in ice. It can be used in lakes, oceans, ice, and permafrost. A miniaturized version can search

  3. The Role of the Tropics in Last Glacial Abrupt Climate Change from a West Antarctic Ice Core

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, T. R.; White, J. W. C.; Steig, E. J.; Cuffey, K. M.; Vaughn, B. H.; Morris, V. A.; Vasileios, G.; Markle, B. R.; Schoenemann, S. W.

    2014-12-01

    Debate exists as to whether last glacial abrupt climate changes in Greenland, and associated changes in Antarctica, had a high-latitude or tropical trigger. An ultra high-resolution water isotope record from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide (WAIS Divide) Ice Core Project has been developed with three key water isotope parameters that offer insight into this debate: δD, δ18O, and deuterium excess (dxs). δD and δ18O are a proxy for local temperature and regional atmospheric circulation, while dxs is primarily a proxy for sea surface temperature at the ice core's moisture source(s) (relative humidity and wind speed also play a role). We build on past studies that show West Antarctic climate is modulated by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection mechanisms, which originate in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, to infer how past ENSO changes may have influenced abrupt climate change. Using frequency analysis of the water isotope data, we can reconstruct the amplitude of ENSO-scale climate oscillations in the 2-15 year range within temporal windows as low as 100 years. Our analysis uses a back diffusion model that estimates initial amplitudes before decay in the firn column. We combine δD, δ18O, and dxs frequency analysis to evaluate how climate variability at WAIS Divide is influenced by tropical climate forcing. Our results should ultimately offer insight into the role of the tropics in abrupt climate change.

  4. Abrupt summer warming and changes in temperature extremes over Northeast Asia since the mid-1990s: Drivers and physical processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dong, Buwen; Sutton, Rowan T.; Chen, Wei; Liu, Xiaodong; Lu, Riyu; Sun, Ying

    2016-09-01

    This study investigated the drivers and physical processes for the abrupt decadal summer surface warming and increases in hot temperature extremes that occurred over Northeast Asia in the mid-1990s. Observations indicate an abrupt increase in summer mean surface air temperature (SAT) over Northeast Asia since the mid-1990s. Accompanying this abrupt surface warming, significant changes in some temperature extremes, characterized by increases in summer mean daily maximum temperature (Tmax), daily minimum temperature (Tmin), annual hottest day temperature (TXx), and annual warmest night temperature (TNx) were observed. There were also increases in the frequency of summer days (SU) and tropical nights (TR). Atmospheric general circulation model experiments forced by changes in sea surface temperature (SST)/sea ice extent (SIE), anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, and anthropogenic aerosol (AA) forcing, relative to the period 1964-93, reproduced the general patterns of observed summer mean SAT changes and associated changes in temperature extremes, although the abrupt decrease in precipitation since the mid-1990s was not simulated. Additional model experiments with different forcings indicated that changes in SST/SIE explained 76% of the area-averaged summer mean surface warming signal over Northeast Asia, while the direct impact of changes in GHG and AA explained the remaining 24% of the surface warming signal. Analysis of physical processes indicated that the direct impact of the changes in AA (through aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions), mainly related to the reduction of AA precursor emissions over Europe, played a dominant role in the increase in TXx and a similarly important role as SST/SIE changes in the increase in the frequency of SU over Northeast Asia via AA-induced coupled atmosphere-land surface and cloud feedbacks, rather than through a direct impact of AA changes on cloud condensation nuclei. The modelling results also imply

  5. Abrupt Changes of the Photospheric Magnetic Field in Active Regions and the Impulsive Phase of Solar Flares (Preprint)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-08-09

    PHASE OF SOLAR FLARES (PREPRINT) E. W. Cliver, et al. 9 August 2012 Interim Report APPROVED FOR PUBLIC...the Impulsive Phase of Solar Flares (Preprint) 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 61102F 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER...public release; distribution is unlimited. Abrupt Changes of the Photospheric Magnetic Field in Active Regions and the Impulsive Phase of Solar

  6. Abrupt Climate Change Caused by Global Fires from a Large Meteor Impact

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bardeen, C.; Toon, O. B.; Garcia, R. R.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Wolf, E. T.

    2015-12-01

    Global or near-global fires like those that are thought to have occurred after the Chicxulub asteroid impact are associated with abrupt climate change and the K-Pg mass extinction event. Using the Community Earth System Model (CESM), a three-dimensional coupled climate model with interactive chemistry, we have simulated the climate response to global fires assuming a burden of 70,000 Tg, as estimated from the K-Pg layer sediments by Wolbach et al. (1988). Soot aerosols are lofted by solar heating and remain in the atmosphere for about 6 years, warming the stratosphere by more than 240 K and suppressing completely solar radiation at the surface for 2 years. Global average land surface temperatures cool by -28 K after 3 years and ocean temperatures by -11 K after 4 years. Precipitation is reduced by 80 % for 5 years, and the ozone column is reduced by 80 % for 4 years. The tropical tropopause cold point disappears for a few years, leading to water vapor mixing ratios of > 1000 ppmv in the stratosphere. There is a rapid recovery around year 6, when the soot is removed by wet deposition as stratospheric water condenses and precipitates, but this is followed by a peak in the UV Index in the tropics of over 40 before stratospheric ozone recovers. Ocean temperature cools by more than -2 K to a depth of 300 m, and sea ice develops in the Black Sea, Caspian Sea, and Baltic Sea. Global fires, two years of darkness, extreme surface cooling, significant ocean cooling, increases in sea ice extent and a large short-term increase in UV Index would have been catastrophic for many life forms. This work is the first step in an effort to simulate the climatic effects of all of the aerosols and gases that may have been generated by the Chicxulub impact in a model that has been configured for late-Cretaceous conditions to help assess the role of the Chicxulub impact in the K-Pg extinction.

  7. The 1997-1999 Abrupt Change of the Upper Ocean Temperature in the North Central Pacific

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kim, Seung-Bum; Lee, Tong; Fukumori, Ichiro

    2004-01-01

    The abrupt warming of the north central Pacific Ocean from 1997 to 1999 is studied using an ocean data assimilation product. During this period, the average mixed-layer temperature in the region of 170-210(deg)E, 25-40(deg)N rises by 1.8 K. The major contributors to the warming are surface heat flux (1.3 K), geostrophic advection (0.7 K), and entrainment (0.7 K). For the geostrophic advection, the contributions by the zonal, meridional, and vertical components are 0.4, -0.1 and 0.3 K, respectively. Mixing and meridional Ekman advection have cooling effect. The significance of the geostrophic advection indicates the importance of ocean dynamics in controlling the abrupt warming tendency during the 1997-99 period and the inadequacy of a slab-mixed-layer model in simulating such warming tendency.

  8. Reducing abrupt climate change risk using the Montreal Protocol and other regulatory actions to complement cuts in CO2 emissions.

    PubMed

    Molina, Mario; Zaelke, Durwood; Sarma, K Madhava; Andersen, Stephen O; Ramanathan, Veerabhadran; Kaniaru, Donald

    2009-12-08

    Current emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) have already committed the planet to an increase in average surface temperature by the end of the century that may be above the critical threshold for tipping elements of the climate system into abrupt change with potentially irreversible and unmanageable consequences. This would mean that the climate system is close to entering if not already within the zone of "dangerous anthropogenic interference" (DAI). Scientific and policy literature refers to the need for "early," "urgent," "rapid," and "fast-action" mitigation to help avoid DAI and abrupt climate changes. We define "fast-action" to include regulatory measures that can begin within 2-3 years, be substantially implemented in 5-10 years, and produce a climate response within decades. We discuss strategies for short-lived non-CO(2) GHGs and particles, where existing agreements can be used to accomplish mitigation objectives. Policy makers can amend the Montreal Protocol to phase down the production and consumption of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) with high global warming potential. Other fast-action strategies can reduce emissions of black carbon particles and precursor gases that lead to ozone formation in the lower atmosphere, and increase biosequestration, including through biochar. These and other fast-action strategies may reduce the risk of abrupt climate change in the next few decades by complementing cuts in CO(2) emissions.

  9. Reducing abrupt climate change risk using the Montreal Protocol and other regulatory actions to complement cuts in CO2 emissions

    PubMed Central

    Molina, Mario; Zaelke, Durwood; Sarma, K. Madhava; Andersen, Stephen O.; Ramanathan, Veerabhadran; Kaniaru, Donald

    2009-01-01

    Current emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) have already committed the planet to an increase in average surface temperature by the end of the century that may be above the critical threshold for tipping elements of the climate system into abrupt change with potentially irreversible and unmanageable consequences. This would mean that the climate system is close to entering if not already within the zone of “dangerous anthropogenic interference” (DAI). Scientific and policy literature refers to the need for “early,” “urgent,” “rapid,” and “fast-action” mitigation to help avoid DAI and abrupt climate changes. We define “fast-action” to include regulatory measures that can begin within 2–3 years, be substantially implemented in 5–10 years, and produce a climate response within decades. We discuss strategies for short-lived non-CO2 GHGs and particles, where existing agreements can be used to accomplish mitigation objectives. Policy makers can amend the Montreal Protocol to phase down the production and consumption of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) with high global warming potential. Other fast-action strategies can reduce emissions of black carbon particles and precursor gases that lead to ozone formation in the lower atmosphere, and increase biosequestration, including through biochar. These and other fast-action strategies may reduce the risk of abrupt climate change in the next few decades by complementing cuts in CO2 emissions. PMID:19822751

  10. Precise interpolar phasing of abrupt climate change during the last ice age.

    PubMed

    2015-04-30

    The last glacial period exhibited abrupt Dansgaard-Oeschger climatic oscillations, evidence of which is preserved in a variety of Northern Hemisphere palaeoclimate archives. Ice cores show that Antarctica cooled during the warm phases of the Greenland Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle and vice versa, suggesting an interhemispheric redistribution of heat through a mechanism called the bipolar seesaw. Variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength are thought to have been important, but much uncertainty remains regarding the dynamics and trigger of these abrupt events. Key information is contained in the relative phasing of hemispheric climate variations, yet the large, poorly constrained difference between gas age and ice age and the relatively low resolution of methane records from Antarctic ice cores have so far precluded methane-based synchronization at the required sub-centennial precision. Here we use a recently drilled high-accumulation Antarctic ice core to show that, on average, abrupt Greenland warming leads the corresponding Antarctic cooling onset by 218 ± 92 years (2σ) for Dansgaard-Oeschger events, including the Bølling event; Greenland cooling leads the corresponding onset of Antarctic warming by 208 ± 96 years. Our results demonstrate a north-to-south directionality of the abrupt climatic signal, which is propagated to the Southern Hemisphere high latitudes by oceanic rather than atmospheric processes. The similar interpolar phasing of warming and cooling transitions suggests that the transfer time of the climatic signal is independent of the AMOC background state. Our findings confirm a central role for ocean circulation in the bipolar seesaw and provide clear criteria for assessing hypotheses and model simulations of Dansgaard-Oeschger dynamics.

  11. Precise interpolar phasing of abrupt climate change during the last ice age

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    ,; Buizert, Christo; Adrian, Betty M.; Ahn, Jinho; Albert, Mary; Alley, Richard B.; Baggenstos, Daniel; Bauska, Thomas K.; Bay, Ryan C.; Bencivengo, Brian B.; Bentley, Charles R.; Brook, Edward J.; Chellman, Nathan J.; Clow, Gary D.; Cole-Dai, Jihong; Conway, Howard; Cravens, Eric; Cuffey, Kurt M.; Dunbar, Nelia W.; Edwards, Jon S.; Fegyveresi, John M.; Ferris, Dave G.; Fitzpatrick, Joan J.; Fudge, T. J.; Gibson, Chris J.; Gkinis, Vasileios; Goetz, Joshua J.; Gregory, Stephanie; Hargreaves, Geoffrey Mill; Iverson, Nels; Johnson, Jay A.; Jones, Tyler R.; Kalk, Michael L.; Kippenhan, Matthew J.; Koffman, Bess G.; Kreutz, Karl; Kuhl, Tanner W.; Lebar, Donald A.; Lee, James E.; Marcott, Shaun A.; Markle, Bradley R.; Maselli, Olivia J.; McConnell, Joseph R.; McGwire, Kenneth C.; Mitchell, Logan E.; Mortensen, Nicolai B.; Neff, Peter D.; Nishiizumi, Kunihiko; Nunn, Richard M.; Orsi, Anais J.; Pasteris, Daniel R.; Pedro, Joel B.; Pettit, Erin C.; Price, P. Buford; Priscu, John C.; Rhodes, Rachael H.; Rosen, Julia L.; Schauer, Andrew J.; Schoenemann, Spruce W.; Sendelbach, Paul J.; Severinghaus, Jeffrey P.; Shturmakov, Alexander J.; Sigl, Michael; Slawny, Kristina R.; Souney, Joseph M.; Sowers, Todd A.; Spencer, Matthew K.; Steig, Eric J.; Taylor, Kendrick C.; Twickler, Mark S.; Vaughn, Bruce H.; Voigt, Donald E.; Waddington, Edwin D.; Welten, Kees C.; Wendricks, Anthony W.; White, James W. C.; Winstrup, Mai; Wong, Gifford J.; Woodruff, Thomas E.

    2015-01-01

    The last glacial period exhibited abrupt Dansgaard–Oeschger climatic oscillations, evidence of which is preserved in a variety of Northern Hemisphere palaeoclimate archives1. Ice cores show that Antarctica cooled during the warm phases of the Greenland Dansgaard–Oeschger cycle and vice versa2, 3, suggesting an interhemispheric redistribution of heat through a mechanism called the bipolar seesaw4, 5, 6. Variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength are thought to have been important, but much uncertainty remains regarding the dynamics and trigger of these abrupt events7, 8, 9. Key information is contained in the relative phasing of hemispheric climate variations, yet the large, poorly constrained difference between gas age and ice age and the relatively low resolution of methane records from Antarctic ice cores have so far precluded methane-based synchronization at the required sub-centennial precision2, 3,10. Here we use a recently drilled high-accumulation Antarctic ice core to show that, on average, abrupt Greenland warming leads the corresponding Antarctic cooling onset by 218 ± 92 years (2σ) for Dansgaard–Oeschger events, including the Bølling event; Greenland cooling leads the corresponding onset of Antarctic warming by 208 ± 96 years. Our results demonstrate a north-to-south directionality of the abrupt climatic signal, which is propagated to the Southern Hemisphere high latitudes by oceanic rather than atmospheric processes. The similar interpolar phasing of warming and cooling transitions suggests that the transfer time of the climatic signal is independent of the AMOC background state. Our findings confirm a central role for ocean circulation in the bipolar seesaw and provide clear criteria for assessing hypotheses and model simulations of Dansgaard–Oeschger dynamics.

  12. Game-Changing Innovations: How Culture Can Change the Parameters of Its Own Evolution and Induce Abrupt Cultural Shifts

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    One of the most puzzling features of the prehistoric record of hominid stone tools is its apparent punctuation: it consists of abrupt bursts of dramatic change that separate long periods of largely unchanging technology. Within each such period, small punctuated cultural modifications take place. Punctuation on multiple timescales and magnitudes is also found in cultural trajectories from historical times. To explain these sharp cultural bursts, researchers invoke such external factors as sudden environmental change, rapid cognitive or morphological change in the hominids that created the tools, or replacement of one species or population by another. Here we propose a dynamic model of cultural evolution that accommodates empirical observations: without invoking external factors, it gives rise to a pattern of rare, dramatic cultural bursts, interspersed by more frequent, smaller, punctuated cultural modifications. Our model includes interdependent innovation processes that occur at different rates. It also incorporates a realistic aspect of cultural evolution: cultural innovations, such as those that increase food availability or that affect cultural transmission, can change the parameters that affect cultural evolution, thereby altering the population’s cultural dynamics and steady state. This steady state can be regarded as a cultural carrying capacity. These parameter-changing cultural innovations occur very rarely, but whenever one occurs, it triggers a dramatic shift towards a new cultural steady state. The smaller and more frequent punctuated cultural changes, on the other hand, are brought about by innovations that spur the invention of further, related, technology, and which occur regardless of whether the population is near its cultural steady state. Our model suggests that common interpretations of cultural shifts as evidence of biological change, for example the appearance of behaviorally modern humans, may be unwarranted. PMID:28036346

  13. Insolation and Abrupt Climate Change Effects on the Western Pacific Maritime Monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Partin, J. W.; Quinn, T. M.; Shen, C.; Cardenas, M.; Siringan, F. P.; Hori, M.; Okumura, Y.; Banner, J. L.; Lin, K.; Jiang, X.; Taylor, F. W.

    2013-12-01

    Many monsoon-sensitive paleoclimate archives capture the response of the Asian-Australian monsoon system to changes in summer insolation, as well as abrupt climate changes such as the Younger Dryas (YD). The response is commonly a direct one in Holocene and YD archives. In the case of insolation, increased summer insolation leads to increased monsoon rainfall over land, as captured in stalagmite δ18O records from Oman and China. We evaluate this direct response using maritime stalagmite records from the island of Palawan, Philippines (10 N, 119 E). The wet season in Palawan occurs over the same months (June-October) as in Oman, India and China. Therefore, we expected the Palawan stalagmite δ18O record, a proxy of rainfall, to have a similar response to changing insolation and hence, a trend of decreasing monsoon rainfall over the Holocene. However, the Holocene trend in two partially replicated stalagmite δ18O records is opposite to that expected: rainfall increases over the Holocene, despite the decrease of summer insolation over the Holocene. We interpret the Holocene trend observed at Palawan to be the result of an increase in the maritime monsoon that balances the reduction in the land monsoon; an interpretation that is consistent with previously published results from coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model runs. Seawater δ18O reconstructions from marine sediment cores in the western tropical Pacific contain a freshening trend over the Holocene, also supporting the hypothesis of increase maritime monsoon rainfall. The direct relationship between monsoon rainfall over land as recorded in the YD interval in Chinese stalagmite records is also observed in maritime monsoon rainfall during the YD at Palawan: both records get drier during the YD cold interval. This agreement between YD stalagmite records from China and Palawan contrasts sharply with the inverse relationship between these records over the Holocene. We further investigate the nature of

  14. Spontaneous abrupt climate change due to an atmospheric blocking-sea-ice-ocean feedback in an unforced climate model simulation.

    PubMed

    Drijfhout, Sybren; Gleeson, Emily; Dijkstra, Henk A; Livina, Valerie

    2013-12-03

    Abrupt climate change is abundant in geological records, but climate models rarely have been able to simulate such events in response to realistic forcing. Here we report on a spontaneous abrupt cooling event, lasting for more than a century, with a temperature anomaly similar to that of the Little Ice Age. The event was simulated in the preindustrial control run of a high-resolution climate model, without imposing external perturbations. Initial cooling started with a period of enhanced atmospheric blocking over the eastern subpolar gyre. In response, a southward progression of the sea-ice margin occurred, and the sea-level pressure anomaly was locked to the sea-ice margin through thermal forcing. The cold-core high steered more cold air to the area, reinforcing the sea-ice concentration anomaly east of Greenland. The sea-ice surplus was carried southward by ocean currents around the tip of Greenland. South of 70 °N, sea ice already started melting and the associated freshwater anomaly was carried to the Labrador Sea, shutting off deep convection. There, surface waters were exposed longer to atmospheric cooling and sea surface temperature dropped, causing an even larger thermally forced high above the Labrador Sea. In consequence, east of Greenland, anomalous winds changed from north to south, terminating the event with similar abruptness to its onset. Our results imply that only climate models that possess sufficient resolution to correctly represent atmospheric blocking, in combination with a sensitive sea-ice model, are able to simulate this kind of abrupt climate change.

  15. Continuous methane record of abrupt climate change 10-68 ka: sighting Heinrich events in the ice core record

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rhodes, Rachael; Brook, Edward; Chiang, John; Blunier, Thomas; Cheng, Hai; Edwards, R. Lawrence; Maselli, Olivia; McConnell, Joseph; Romanini, Daniele; Severinghaus, Jeffrey; Sowers, Todd; Stowasser, Christopher

    2014-05-01

    The Last Glacial period was punctuated by millennial scale abrupt climate changes - Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) cycles and Heinrich events. Controls on the magnitude and frequency of these climate perturbations, and how they may be inter-related, remain unclear. Specific problems include the difficulty of dating Heinrich sediment layers and local bias of key paleoclimate archives. We present a highly detailed and precise record of ice core methane (CH4), a globally integrated signal, which resolves climatic features in unprecedented resolution. Abrupt CH4 increases are resolved in Heinrich Stadials (HS) 1, 2, 4 and 5 where, in contrast to all D-O cycles, there are no concurrent abrupt changes in Greenland temperature. Using modern-day tropical rainfall variability as an analog, we propose that strong cooling in the North Atlantic severely restricted the northerly range of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), leading to an enhanced wet season over Southern Hemisphere tropical land areas, and consequently driving production of excess CH4 in tropical wetlands. Our findings place four Heinrich events firmly within ice core chronologies and suggest maximum durations of 778 to 1606 yr. CH4 anomalies are only associated with Heinrich events of Hudson Strait provenance, indicating that the tropical impacts of Heinrich events were not uniform.

  16. Abrupt changes in Antarctic Intermediate Water strength lead Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation changes during the last deglacial

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xie, R.; Marcantonio, F.; Schmidt, M. W.

    2011-12-01

    depth that is greater than that of modern AAIW flow, may actually be recording shoaling of the southern-sourced mid-depth circulation instead of variations of AAIW. At the beginning of the YD, Bølling-Allerød, and H1 in the Florida Straits, changing ɛNd values lead benthic foraminiferal δ18O changes in 26JPC and 31JPC,which have previously been interpreted as reflecting AMOC variability [3]. This suggests that variations in the strength of AAIW lead significant changes in AMOC across abrupt climate events across the deglacial, providing evidence that the trigger for abrupt climate change may reside in the Southern Hemisphere. Additional high-resolution ɛNd results from VM12-107 will be presented in an effort to better constrain the role of intermediate waters during the last deglaction. [1] Came et al. (2008) Paleoceanography 23, PA1217 [2] Pahnke et al. (2008) Nature Geoscience 1, 870-874 [3] Lynch-Stieglitz et al. (2011) Paleoceanography 26, PA1205

  17. Role of scale interactions in the abrupt change of tropical cyclone in autumn over the Western North Pacific

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hsu, Pang-Chi; Lee, Ting-Hui; Tsou, Chih-Hua; Chu, Pao-Shin; Qian, Yitian; Bi, Mingyu

    2017-01-01

    Tropical cyclone (TC) activity in autumn (September-November) over the western North Pacific experienced an abrupt change in 1998, which can be detected by the Bayesian change-point analysis. During the decade before the regime shift (1988-1997), the occurrence frequency of TC genesis increased significantly over the tropical western Pacific, where the seasonal cyclonic flow, intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) and synoptic-scale eddy (SSE) were all strengthened, compared to those observed in the decade after 1998 (1998-2007). The TC trajectories also exhibited spatial differences. During the active decade, the TCs had a higher probability to move westward into the Philippine Sea and the South China Sea, and recurved northeastward toward the east of Japan. Meanwhile, the northwestward propagating TCs approaching Taiwan and southeastern coast of China were reduced. To understand the role of mean flow-ISO-SSE interaction in the decadal changes of SSE and associated TC activity, we diagnosed a newly proposed SSE kinetic energy (KE) equation that separates the contributions of seasonal-mean circulation and ISO to the SSE. The results show that, during the active TC decade, the SSE obtained higher KE from both mean flow and ISO through eddy barotropic energy conversion when the enhanced SSE momentum flux interacted with the strengthened monsoon trough and vigorous ISO cyclonic anomaly over the western tropical Pacific. The increased SSE KE contributed positively to the increased TC genesis over the main genesis region (7.5°-20°N, 130°-170°E). It also benefited the growth of TCs over the Philippine Sea and the South China Sea during the active decade. The decadal change in TC frequency over the extratropics was related to the eddy baroclinic energy conversion instead of the barotropic conversion associated with scale interaction. During the active TC decade, SSE gained more (less) KE from the SSE available potential energy over the east of Japan (the East China Sea

  18. Abrupt physical and chemical changes during 1992-1999, Anderson Springs, SE Geyser Geothermal Field, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Janik, Cathy J.; Goff, Fraser; Walter, Stephen R.; Sorey, Michael L.; Counce, Dale; Colvard, Elizabeth M.

    2000-01-01

    of steam discharges from the Southeast Geysers. The hot spring waters are low in ions of Cl, B, and Li, but relatively high in HCO3, SO4 and NH4. The stable-isotope compositions (deuterium and oxygen-18) of these waters plot near the global meteoric water line. Geochemical data through time reveal apparent maxima in the concentrations of SO4, Fe, and Mn in 1991 to 1992, before the cluster became hotter. The black-to-gray deposits from the new spring cluster are rich in pyrite and contain anomalous metals. About one-half mile to the east of the hot springs, mineralized water discharges intermittently from an old adit of the Schwartz (Anderson) mine, and enters a tributary of Anderson Creek. This drainage increased substantially in July 1998, and a slurry of mine water and precipitates were transported down the tributary and into Anderson Creek. In December 1998, the adit water was 22°C, and had a chemical composition that was similar to spring waters that once discharged in the ravines surrounding the old Anderson Springs resort. The cause for the abrupt changes that have occurred in thermal features at Anderson Springs is still not resolved. One possibility is that these changes are a response to withdrawal of steam from The Geysers geothermal field over more than 20 years of production. Pressure declines in the geothermal reservoir may have caused a "drying out" of the overlying condensation zone. Induced boiling in this zone and upflow of deep steam to shallower depths would cause heating and vaporization of shallow ground waters. In addition, earthquakes occurring in the vicinity of Anderson Springs have increased significantly after nearby geothermal power plants began operation. These earthquakes may have enhanced surface discharge of thermal fluids along fractures and faults.

  19. THE ABRUPT CHANGES IN THE PHOTOSPHERIC MAGNETIC AND LORENTZ FORCE VECTORS DURING SIX MAJOR NEUTRAL-LINE FLARES

    SciTech Connect

    Petrie, G. J. D.

    2012-11-01

    We analyze the spatial and temporal variations of the abrupt photospheric magnetic changes associated with six major flares using 12 minute, 0.''5 pixel{sup -1} vector magnetograms from NASA's Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager instrument on the Solar Dynamics Observatory satellite. The six major flares occurred near the main magnetic neutral lines of four active regions, NOAA 11158, 11166, 11283, and 11429. During all six flares the neutral-line field vectors became stronger and more horizontal, in each case almost entirely due to strengthening of the horizontal field components parallel to the neutral line. In all six cases the neutral-line pre-flare fields were more vertical than the reference potential fields, and collapsed abruptly and permanently closer to potential-field tilt angles during every flare, implying that the relaxation of magnetic stress associated with non-potential tilt angles plays a major role during major flares. The shear angle with respect to the reference potential field did not show such a pattern, demonstrating that flare processes do not generally relieve magnetic stresses associated with photospheric magnetic shear. The horizontal fields became significantly and permanently more aligned with the neutral line during the four largest flares, suggesting that the collapsing field is on average more aligned with the neutral line than the pre-flare neutral-line field. The vertical Lorentz force had a large, abrupt, permanent downward change during each of the flares, consistent with loop collapse. The horizontal Lorentz force changes acted mostly parallel to the neutral line in opposite directions on each side, a signature of the fields contracting during the flare, pulling the two sides of the neutral line toward each other. The greater effect of the flares on field tilt than on shear may be explained by photospheric line-tying.

  20. Abrupt fire regime change may cause landscape-wide loss of mature obligate seeder forests.

    PubMed

    Bowman, David M J S; Murphy, Brett P; Neyland, Dominic L J; Williamson, Grant J; Prior, Lynda D

    2014-03-01

    Obligate seeder trees requiring high-severity fires to regenerate may be vulnerable to population collapse if fire frequency increases abruptly. We tested this proposition using a long-lived obligate seeding forest tree, alpine ash (Eucalyptus delegatensis), in the Australian Alps. Since 2002, 85% of the Alps bioregion has been burnt by several very large fires, tracking the regional trend of more frequent extreme fire weather. High-severity fires removed 25% of aboveground tree biomass, and switched fuel arrays from low loads of herbaceous and litter fuels to high loads of flammable shrubs and juvenile trees, priming regenerating stands for subsequent fires. Single high-severity fires caused adult mortality and triggered mass regeneration, but a second fire in quick succession killed 97% of the regenerating alpine ash. Our results indicate that without interventions to reduce fire severity, interactions between flammability of regenerating stands and increased extreme fire weather will eliminate much of the remaining mature alpine ash forest.

  1. Combined effect of soil erosion and climate change induces abrupt changes in soil and vegetation properties in semiarid Mediterranean shrublands.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bochet, Esther; García-Fayos, Patricio

    2013-04-01

    Semiarid Mediterranean ecosystems are experiencing major alterations as a result of the complex interactions between climatic fluctuations and disturbances caused by human activities. Future scenarios of global change forecast a rapid degradation of these ecosystems, with a reduction of their functionality, as a result of changes in relevant vegetation and soil properties. Some theoretical models indicate that these ecosystems respond non-linearly to regular variations in the external conditions, with an abrupt shift when conditions approach a certain critical level or threshold. Considering these predictions, there is an urgent need to know the effects that these alterations might have on semi-arid ecosystems and their components. In this study, we aim at analyzing the consequences of climate change and increasing soil erosion on soil and vegetation properties and the functional dynamics of semiarid Mediterranean shrublands. We predict that the combined effect of both drivers will be additive or synergistic, increasing the negative effects of each one. We compared vegetation and soil properties of flat areas (low erosion) and steep hillslopes (high erosion) in two climatic areas (484 mm and 10.3°C, and 368mm and 11.9°C, respectively) that reproduce the predicted climate change in temperature and precipitation for the next 40 years. Species richness, vegetal cover, plant life-form composition were determined in 20 m2 plots and soil was sampled in the same plots to determine bulk density, aggregate stability, fertility and water holding capacity. All soil and vegetation properties were negatively affected by soil erosion and climate change. However, contrary to our hypothesis, the joined effect of both drivers on all soil and vegetation properties was antagonistic, except for the vegetal cover that showed an additive response to their interaction. Our results evidence that soil erosion affects more negatively the soil and vegetation properties in the cooler and

  2. "What Controls the Structure and Stability of the Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation: Implications for Abrupt Climate Change?"

    SciTech Connect

    Fedorov, Alexey

    2013-11-23

    The central goal of this research project is to understand the properties of the ocean meridional overturning circulation (MOC) – a topic critical for understanding climate variability and stability on a variety of timescales (from decadal to centennial and longer). Specifically, we have explored various factors that control the MOC stability and decadal variability in the Atlantic and the ocean thermal structure in general, including the possibility abrupt climate change. We have also continued efforts on improving the performance of coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMs.

  3. Land-cover change detection

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Chen, Xuexia; Giri, Chandra; Vogelmann, James

    2012-01-01

    Land cover is the biophysical material on the surface of the earth. Land-cover types include grass, shrubs, trees, barren, water, and man-made features. Land cover changes continuously.  The rate of change can be either dramatic and abrupt, such as the changes caused by logging, hurricanes and fire, or subtle and gradual, such as regeneration of forests and damage caused by insects (Verbesselt et al., 2001).  Previous studies have shown that land cover has changed dramatically during the past sevearal centuries and that these changes have severely affected our ecosystems (Foody, 2010; Lambin et al., 2001). Lambin and Strahlers (1994b) summarized five types of cause for land-cover changes: (1) long-term natural changes in climate conditions, (2) geomorphological and ecological processes, (3) human-induced alterations of vegetation cover and landscapes, (4) interannual climate variability, and (5) human-induced greenhouse effect.  Tools and techniques are needed to detect, describe, and predict these changes to facilitate sustainable management of natural resources.

  4. The Meio 1498 earthquake and tsunami : driving force of abrupt environmental change in the Hamana floodplain, Shizuoka prefecture, Japan.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heyvaert, Vanessa M. A.; Fujiwara, Osamu; Umitsu, Masatomo; Sato, Yoshiki; Ono, Einsuke; Yata, Toshifumi

    2013-04-01

    The objective of this research is to study the role of a tsunami, generated by the 1498 Meio earthquake (M8.2 - 8.4) along the eastern Nankai on the geomorphological evolution of the Hamana river floodplain, located along the Pacific coastline of Central Japan (Shizuoka prefecture). Historical sources document a sudden decline at the end of the 15th century of the harbour town Hashimoto, located along the river Hamana. Before the 15th century, this river connected the Pacific Ocean with an enclosed coastal embayment separated by a sand barrier (i.e. the present-day Hamana lake) from the Pacific. The reconstruction of the palaeocourse of the Hamana river was carried out on the basis of detailed facies and diatom analyses of undisturbed sediment cores (geoslicer and drilling). The palaeochannel was detected along the western side of the present-day coastal embayment. It seems that the river's mouth was abruptly sealed off due to the migration of huge volumes of sand that initiated the development of a marsh environment upstream along the channel. The identification and radiocarbon dating of these sandy high-energy flow deposits in several cores (thick sand bed of marine origin intercalated at the estuarine - marsh environmental change boundary) suggests that the river mouth closure was initated by mass sediment transport by a storm surge or tsunami (1498 Meio tsunami and/or 1498 and 1499 large storm surges along the Hamana coastline). The same process, of sudden river mouth sealing by tsunami-transported sediments, was recently observed in the northeast of Japan during the great 2011 Sendai tsunami (Uda, T., 2011). Historical sources document that after the 1498 Meio tsunami, the Hamana back-barrier sheltered environment was reconnected to the Pacific Ocean due to breaching of its sand barrier. Both environmental changes (river mouth closure and barrier breaching)are synchronous with the sudden decline of the harbour town Hashimoto. These data suggest that disruption

  5. Dynamics of pavement cell-chloride cell interactions during abrupt salinity change in Fundulus heteroclitus.

    PubMed

    Daborn, K; Cozzi, R R; Marshall, W S

    2001-06-01

    Freshwater-adapted killifish (Fundulus heteroclitus) opercular epithelia were dissected and subjected to blood-side hypertonic bathing solution in Ussing-style chambers to simulate the increase in blood osmolality during migration to sea water. Conversely, seawater-acclimated killifish opercular epithelia were subjected to hypotonic bathing solutions to simulate the initial stages of migration to fresh water. Freshwater-acclimation (hypertonic stress) induced a rapid (approximately 30 min) increase in membrane conductance (G(t)) from 3.10+/-0.56 to 7.52+/-1.15 mS x cm(-2) (P<0.01, N=27), whereas seawater-acclimation (hypotonic stress) induced a rapid decrease in G(t) from 8.22+/-1.15 to 4.41+/-1.00 mS x cm(-2) (P<0.01, N=27; means +/- S.E.M.). Control seawater-acclimated membranes had a density of apical crypts (where chloride cells are exposed to the environment; detected by scanning electron microscopy) of 1133+/-96.4 crypts x mm(-2) (N=12), whereas the hypotonically shocked specimens had a lower crypt density of 870+/-36.7 crypts x mm(-2) (P<0.01 N=10; means +/- S.E.M.). Hypertonic shock of freshwater membranes increased crypt density from 383.3+/-73.9 (N=12) to 630+/-102. 9 crypts x mm(-2) (P<0.05; N=11; means +/- S.E.M.). There was no change in density of chloride cells, as detected by fluorescence microscopy; hence, osmotic stress changes the degree of exposure, not the number of chloride cells. Cytochalasin D (5.0 micromol x l(-1)) completely blocked the conductance response to hypotonic shock and the reduction in apical crypt density measured by scanning electron microscopy, while phalloidin (33 micromol x l(-1)), colchicine (3x10(-4)mol x l(-1)) and griseofulvin (1.0 micromol x l(-1)) were ineffective. Actin imaging by phalloidin staining and confocal microscopy revealed extensive actin cords in pavement cell microridges and a ring of actin at the apex of chloride cells. We conclude that the actin cytoskeleton of chloride cells is required to maintain

  6. An expert system to perform on-line controller restructuring for abrupt model changes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Litt, Jonathan S.

    1990-01-01

    Work in progress on an expert system used to reconfigure and tune airframe/engine control systems on-line in real time in response to battle damage or structural failures is presented. The closed loop system is monitored constantly for changes in structure and performance, the detection of which prompts the expert system to choose and apply a particular control restructuring algorithm based on the type and severity of the damage. Each algorithm is designed to handle specific types of failures and each is applicable only in certain situations. The expert system uses information about the system model to identify the failure and to select the technique best suited to compensate for it. A depth-first search is used to find a solution. Once a new controller is designed and implemented it must be tuned to recover the original closed-loop handling qualities and responsiveness from the degraded system. Ideally, the pilot should not be able to tell the difference between the original and redesigned systems. The key is that the system must have inherent redundancy so that degraded or missing capabilities can be restored by creative use of alternate functionalities. With enough redundancy in the control system, minor battle damage affecting individual control surfaces or actuators, compressor efficiency, etc., can be compensated for such that the closed-loop performance in not noticeably altered. The work is applied to a Black Hawk/T700 system.

  7. A Collaborative Proposal: Simulating and Understanding Abrupt Climate-Ecosystem Changes During Holocene with NCAR-CCSM3.

    SciTech Connect

    Zhengyu Liu, Bette Otto-Bliesner

    2013-02-01

    We have made significant progress in our proposed work in the last 4 years (3 years plus 1 year of no cost extension). In anticipation of the next phase of study, we have spent time on the abrupt changes since the last glacial maximum. First, we have performed further model-data comparison based on our baseline TRACE-21 simulation and made important progress towards the understanding of several major climate transitions. Second, we have made a significant effort in processing the model output of TRACE-21 and have put this output on a website for access by the community. Third, we have completed many additional sensitivity experiments. In addition, we have organized synthesis workshops to facilitate and promote transient model-data comparison for the international community. Finally, we have identified new areas of interest for Holocene climate changes.

  8. Determination of time-dependent skin temperature decrease rates in the case of abrupt changes of environmental temperature.

    PubMed

    Mall, G; Hubig, M; Beier, G; Büttner, A; Eisenmenger, W

    2000-09-11

    The present study deals with the development of a method for determining time-dependent temperature decrease rates and its application to postmortem surface cooling. The study concentrates on evaluating skin cooling behavior since data on skin cooling in the forensic literature are scarce. Furthermore, all heat transfer mechanisms strongly depend on the temperature gradient between body surface and environment. One of the main problems in modelling postmortem cooling processes is the dependence on the environmental temperature. All models for postmortem rectal cooling essentially presuppose a constant environmental temperature. In medico-legal practice, the temperature of the surrounding of a corpse mostly varies; therefore, an approach for extending the models to variable environmental temperatures is desirable. It consists in 'localizing' them to infinitesimal small intervals of time. An extended model differential equation is obtained and solved explicitly. The approach developed is applied to the single-exponential Newtonian model of surface cooling producing the following differential equation:T(S)'(t)=-lambda(t)(T(S)(t)-T(E)(t))(with T(S)(t) the surface/skin temperature, T(E)(t) the environmental temperature, lambda(t) the temperature decrease rate and T(S)'(t) the actual change of skin temperature or first-order derivative of T(S)). The differential equation directly provides an estimator:lambda(t)=-T(S)'(t)T(S)(t)-T(E)(t)for the time-dependent temperature decrease rate. The estimator is applied to two skin cooling experiments with different types of abrupt changes of environmental temperature, peak-like and step-like; the values of the time-dependent temperature decrease rate function were calculated. By reinserting them, the measured surface temperature curve could be accurately reconstructed, indicating that the extended model is well suited for describing surface cooling in the case of abrupt changes of environmental temperature.

  9. Aerodynamic and Acoustic Effects of Abrupt Frequency Changes in Excised Larynges

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Alipour, Fariborz; Finnegan, Eileen M.; Scherer, Ronald C.

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: To determine the aerodynamic and acoustic effects due to a sudden change from chest to falsetto register or vice versa. It was hypothesized that the continuous change in subglottal pressure and flow rate alone (pressure-flow sweep [PFS]) can trigger a mode change in the canine larynx. Method: Ten canine larynges were each mounted over a…

  10. Abrupt climatic changes as triggering mechanisms of massive volcanic collapses: examples from Mexico (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Capra, L.

    2010-12-01

    Climate changes have been considered to be a triggering mechanism for large magmatic eruptions. However they can also trigger volcanic collapses, phenomena that cause the destruction of the entire sector of a volcano, including its summit. During the past 30 ka, major volcanic collapses occurred just after main glacial peaks that ended with a rapid deglaciation. Glacial debuttressing, load discharge and fluid circulation coupled with the post-glacial increase of humidity and heavy rains can activate the failure of unstable edifices. Looking at the synchronicity of the maximum glaciations during the late Pleistocene and Holocene in the northern and southern hemispheres it is evident that several volcanic collapses are absent during a glacial climax, but start immediately after it during a period of rapid retreat. Several examples can be detected around the world and Mexico is not an exception. The 28 ka Nevado de Toluca volcanic collapse occurred during an intraglacial stage, under humid conditions as evidenced by paleoclimatic studies on lacustrine sediments of the area. The debris avalanche deposit associated to this event clearly shows evidence of a large amount of water into the mass previous to the failure that enhanced its mobility. It also contains peculiar, plastically deformed, m-sized fragment of lacustrine sediments eroded from glacial berms. The 17 ka BP collapse of the Colima Volcano corresponds to the initial stage of glacial retreat in Mexico after the Last Glacial Maximum (22-17.5ka). Also in this case the depositional sequence reflects high humidity conditions with voluminous debris flow containing a large amount logs left by pine trees. The occurrence of cohesive debris flows originating from the failure of a volcanic edifice can also reflect the climatic conditions, indicating important hydrothermal alteration and fluid circulation from ice-melting at an ice-capped volcano, as observed for example at the Pico de Orizaba volcano for the Tetelzingo

  11. A Generalized Stability Analysis of the AMOC in Earth System Models: Implication for Decadal Variability and Abrupt Climate Change

    SciTech Connect

    Fedorov, Alexey V.

    2015-01-14

    The central goal of this research project was to understand the mechanisms of decadal and multi-decadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as related to climate variability and abrupt climate change within a hierarchy of climate models ranging from realistic ocean models to comprehensive Earth system models. Generalized Stability Analysis, a method that quantifies the transient and asymptotic growth of perturbations in the system, is one of the main approaches used throughout this project. The topics we have explored range from physical mechanisms that control AMOC variability to the factors that determine AMOC predictability in the Earth system models, to the stability and variability of the AMOC in past climates.

  12. ABRUPT CHANGES OF THE PHOTOSPHERIC MAGNETIC FIELD IN ACTIVE REGIONS AND THE IMPULSIVE PHASE OF SOLAR FLARES

    SciTech Connect

    Cliver, E. W.; Petrie, G. J. D.; Ling, A. G.

    2012-09-10

    We compared time profiles of changes of the unsigned photospheric magnetic flux in active regions with those of their associated soft X-ray (SXR) bursts for a sample of 75 {>=} M5 flares well observed by Global Oscillation Network Group longitudinal magnetographs. Sixty-six of these events had stepwise changes in the spatially integrated unsigned flux during the SXR flares. In superposed epoch plots for these 66 events, there is a sharp increase in the unsigned magnetic flux coincident with the onset of the flare impulsive phase while the end of the stepwise change corresponds to the time of peak SXR emission. We substantiated this result with a histogram-based comparison of the timing of flux steps (onset, midpoint of step, and end) for representative points in the flaring regions with their associated SXR event time markers (flare onset, onset of impulsive phase, time of peak logarithmic derivative, maximum). On an individual event basis, the principal part of the stepwise magnetic flux change occurred during the main rise phase of the SXR burst (impulsive phase onset to SXR peak) for {approx}60% of the 66 cases. We find a close timing agreement between magnetic flux steps and >100 keV emission for the three largest hard X-ray (>100 keV) bursts in our sample. These results identify the abrupt changes in photospheric magnetic fields as an impulsive phase phenomenon and indicate that the coronal magnetic field changes that drive flares are rapidly transmitted to the photosphere.

  13. Abrupt Changes of the Photospheric Magnetic Field in Active Regions and the Impulsive Phase of Solar Flares

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cliver, E. W.; Petrie, G. J. D.; Ling, A. G.

    2012-09-01

    We compared time profiles of changes of the unsigned photospheric magnetic flux in active regions with those of their associated soft X-ray (SXR) bursts for a sample of 75 >= M5 flares well observed by Global Oscillation Network Group longitudinal magnetographs. Sixty-six of these events had stepwise changes in the spatially integrated unsigned flux during the SXR flares. In superposed epoch plots for these 66 events, there is a sharp increase in the unsigned magnetic flux coincident with the onset of the flare impulsive phase while the end of the stepwise change corresponds to the time of peak SXR emission. We substantiated this result with a histogram-based comparison of the timing of flux steps (onset, midpoint of step, and end) for representative points in the flaring regions with their associated SXR event time markers (flare onset, onset of impulsive phase, time of peak logarithmic derivative, maximum). On an individual event basis, the principal part of the stepwise magnetic flux change occurred during the main rise phase of the SXR burst (impulsive phase onset to SXR peak) for ~60% of the 66 cases. We find a close timing agreement between magnetic flux steps and >100 keV emission for the three largest hard X-ray (>100 keV) bursts in our sample. These results identify the abrupt changes in photospheric magnetic fields as an impulsive phase phenomenon and indicate that the coronal magnetic field changes that drive flares are rapidly transmitted to the photosphere.

  14. Two Degrees of Separation: Abrupt Climate Change and the Adverse Impact to US National Security

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-04-01

    trend of increasing GHG emissions is marginally impacting or irrelevant altogether. “Other factors, including sun spots, solar winds, variations ...climate variations over a wide range of time scales, making it a natural sensor of climate variability and providing a visible expression of climate...many observed changes in phenology and distribution have been associated with rising water temperatures, as well as changes in salinity, oxygen levels

  15. Abrupt State Change in Spatially-Patterned Subalpine Forests in Northern Colorado During the Medieval Climate Anomaly

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calder, W. J.; Shuman, B. N.

    2014-12-01

    Spatial patterns in many ecosystems arise from feedbacks associated with the potential for critical transitions and multiple stable states. Such systems may be susceptible to abrupt change, which could be indicated by early-warning signals, such as critical slowing down (increasingly long recovery from perturbation as a threshold approaches). Paleoecological data from ribbon forests, a type of subalpine parkland found in the Rocky Mountains, offer an opportunity to test these hypotheses. The forests consist of alternating strips of forest and meadow that form because bands of Picea and Abies trees act as snow fences with large snowdrifts forming on their lee sides. Drifts provide moisture for the adjacent trees, but also increase seedling mortality and shorten the growing season where drifts accumulate. The feedbacks between forest growth and snow accumulation maintain the ribbon forest-meadow pattern, and raise the potential for abrupt change if the feedbacks breakdown in response to factors like drought or fire. Our fossil pollen data from Summit Lake, located on the Continental Divide in the Park Range, northern Colorado, indicate that a closed forest transitioned rapidly to a ribbon forest state at ca. 1000 BP. Artemisia pollen increased (20 to 35%) and Picea and Abies pollen decreased (25 to 15%) within a century or less after a pair of charcoal peaks. Decreased charcoal influx (from 0.6 to 0.4 pieces/cm2/yr) and fire frequency (from 4.5 to 1.5 fires/ka) coincided with the pollen assemblage changes, and is consistent with decreased landscape biomass and fuel connectivity. Initial analyses show evidence of critical slowing down before the state change. After eight of eleven fires recorded by peaks in charcoal accumulation, Artemisia pollen percentages rise to a peak consistent with brief opening of the initially forested landscape. After 2000 BP, the magnitude and duration of the post-fire changes increases until no recovery is recorded after the shift at 1000

  16. Late Glacial to Holocene abrupt temperature changes recorded by Crenarchaeota in Lake Lucerne (Vierwaldstättersee, Switzerland)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blaga, Cornelia I.; Reichart, Gert-Jan; Lotter, André F.; Anselmetti, Flavio; Sinninghe Damsté, Jaap S.

    2010-05-01

    In this study we applied the TEX86 (TetraEther Index of 86 carbon atoms) temperature proxy to a sediment core from Lake Lucerne (Vierwaldstättersee) to reconstruct, in almost decadal resolution, temperature changes during the Younger Dryas and the Early Holocene (ca. 14600 to 10600 cal. BP). The TEX86 proxy suggests a sequence of shifts during the late glacial period that strongly resemble the shifts in δ18O values from the Greenland ice core record. The TEX86-reconstructed lake temperature record indicates a step-wise pattern of climate changes across the studied interval with a shift from colder to warmer temperatures at the onset of the late-glacial interstadial, followed by an abrupt cooling at the onset of Younger Dryas and a rapid warming from 5.5 to 9°C at the Younger Dryas/Holocene transition in less than 200 years. The temperature change associated with the Interstadial-Younger Dryas alternation is ca. 4 °C and is in line with previous temperature reconstructions based on different proxies. The rapid changes in temperature associated with the last deglaciation are reflected in the highest possible detail in the TEX86 record. It is thus clear that our proxy, based on the isoprenoidal GDGTs (Glycerol Dialkyl Glycerol Tetraethers), is capable to reflect high resolution records of rapid (decadal to century scale oscillations) environmental fluctuations comparable with those obtained from ice cores.

  17. Abrupt recent trend changes in atmospheric nitrogen dioxide over the Middle East

    PubMed Central

    Lelieveld, Jos; Beirle, Steffen; Hörmann, Christoph; Stenchikov, Georgiy; Wagner, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    Nitrogen oxides, released from fossil fuel use and other combustion processes, affect air quality and climate. From the mid-1990s onward, nitrogen dioxide (NO2) has been monitored from space, and since 2004 with relatively high spatial resolution by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument. Strong upward NO2 trends have been observed over South and East Asia and the Middle East, in particular over major cities. We show, however, that a combination of air quality control and political factors, including economical crisis and armed conflict, has drastically altered the emission landscape of nitrogen oxides in the Middle East. Large changes, including trend reversals, have occurred since about 2010 that could not have been predicted and therefore are at odds with emission scenarios used in projections of air pollution and climate change in the early 21st century. PMID:26601240

  18. Central European vegetation response to abrupt climate change at 8.2 ka

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tinner, Willy; Lotter, André F.

    2001-06-01

    Oxygen isotope records show a major climatic reversal at 8.2 ka in Greenland and Europe. Annually laminated sediments from two lakes in Switzerland and Germany were sampled contiguously to assess the response of European vegetation to climate change ca. 8.2 ka with time resolution and precision comparable to those of the Greenland ice cores. The pollen assemblages show pronounced and immediate responses (0 20 yr) of terrestrial vegetation to the climatic change at 8.2 ka. A sudden collapse of Corylus avellana (hazel) was accompanied by the rapid expansion of Pinus (pine), Betula (birch), and Tilia (linden), and by the invasion of Fagus silvatica (beech) and Abies alba (fir). Vegetational changes suggest that climatic cooling reduced drought stress, allowing more drought-sensitive and taller growing species to out-compete Corylus avellana by forming denser forest canopies. Climate cooling at 8.2 ka and the immediate reorganization of terrestrial ecosystems has gone unrecognized by previous pollen studies. On the basis of our data we conclude that the early Holocene high abundance of C. avellana in Europe was climatically caused, and we question the conventional opinion that postglacial expansions of F. silvatica and A. alba were controlled by low migration rates rather than by climate. The close connection between climatic change and vegetational response at a subcontinental scale implies that forecasted global warming may trigger rapid collapses, expansions, and invasions of tree species.

  19. Detecting Unidentified Changes

    PubMed Central

    Howe, Piers D. L.; Webb, Margaret E.

    2014-01-01

    Does becoming aware of a change to a purely visual stimulus necessarily cause the observer to be able to identify or localise the change or can change detection occur in the absence of identification or localisation? Several theories of visual awareness stress that we are aware of more than just the few objects to which we attend. In particular, it is clear that to some extent we are also aware of the global properties of the scene, such as the mean luminance or the distribution of spatial frequencies. It follows that we may be able to detect a change to a visual scene by detecting a change to one or more of these global properties. However, detecting a change to global property may not supply us with enough information to accurately identify or localise which object in the scene has been changed. Thus, it may be possible to reliably detect the occurrence of changes without being able to identify or localise what has changed. Previous attempts to show that this can occur with natural images have produced mixed results. Here we use a novel analysis technique to provide additional evidence that changes can be detected in natural images without also being identified or localised. It is likely that this occurs by the observers monitoring the global properties of the scene. PMID:24454727

  20. Postglacial Response of Terrestrial Neotropical Vegetation to Abrupt Climate Change as Recorded by Pollen from a Marine Core, Cariaco Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Delusina, I.; Peterson, L. C.; Spero, H. J.

    2011-12-01

    The response of terrestrial vegetation to the climatic shift that followed the Last Glacial Maximum is a critical component of the Neotropical climate system: it is linked to the carbon cycle and makes it possible to trace the impact of climatic alterations. We analyzed fossil pollen from high-resolution marine core MD03-2620 from the anoxic Cariaco Basin, off the coast of Venezuela. The study covers the period from Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the mid-Holocene. Previous paleoreconstructions from Cariaco Basin sediments emphasized that the abrupt climatic change that followed the LGM was associated with a shift of the ITCZ, subsequent sea level oscillations and alteration in a thermohaline circulation. We maintain that pollen from the marine core reflects vegetation trends of a large regional area, which smooths out local peculiarities in vegetation and allows us to trace the Cold/Dry-Warm/Wet dynamic in the pollen assemblages of the Cariaco sediments. Our pollen analysis indicates an interval of clear dominance of C4-type plants between ca 19.0 - 17.5 kyr BP, representing the transition from salt-marshes to steppe/savanna on the lowland. The onset of the Mystery Interval MI (17.5 to ~14.5 kyr BP) caused the most dramatic changes in vegetation for all postglacial time and was characterized sequentially by both a wet and dry signal, resulting in the reduction of forest vegetation, and later with the expansion of salt marshes in the littoral zone. According to the pollen data, MI consisted of two clearly recognized parts with a bridge in the middle: 1) H1-a. Dry interval between ~17.5 and 16.5 kyr BP with gradually growing humidity, that reaches a plateau at ~16.6 kyr BP. 2) Middle of the MI: ~ 16.5 - 15.8 kyr BP, exhibiting warm, humid conditions. 3) H1-b. Dry period after ~15.8 kyr BP, to ~14.5 kyr BP. The largest abrupt change in the pollen record is the transition to the Bølling/Allerød Stade, where our results are well correlated with plant wax biomarker

  1. Quantifying Climate Feedbacks from Abrupt Changes in High-Latitude Trace-Gas Emissions

    SciTech Connect

    Schlosser, Courtney Adam; Walter-Anthony, Katey; Zhuang, Qianlai; Melillo, Jerry

    2013-04-26

    Our overall goal was to quantify the potential for threshold changes in natural emission rates of trace gases, particularly methane and carbon dioxide, from pan-arctic terrestrial systems under the spectrum of anthropogenically forced climate warming, and the extent to which these emissions provide a strong feedback mechanism to global climate warming. This goal is motivated under the premise that polar amplification of global climate warming will induce widespread thaw and degradation of the permafrost, and would thus cause substantial changes in the extent of wetlands and lakes, especially thermokarst (thaw) lakes, over the Arctic. Through a coordinated effort of field measurements, model development, and numerical experimentation with an integrated assessment model framework, we have investigated the following hypothesis: There exists a climate-warming threshold beyond which permafrost degradation becomes widespread and thus instigates strong and/or sharp increases in methane emissions (via thermokarst lakes and wetland expansion). These would outweigh any increased uptake of carbon (e.g. from peatlands) and would result in a strong, positive feedback to global climate warming.

  2. Abrupt environmental change in Canada's northernmost lake inferred from fossil diatom and pigment stratigraphy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Antoniades, Dermot; Crawley, Catherine; Douglas, Marianne S. V.; Pienitz, Reinhard; Andersen, Dale; Doran, Peter T.; Hawes, Ian; Pollard, Wayne; Vincent, Warwick F.

    2007-09-01

    An analysis of diatoms and fossil pigments in a sediment core from perennially ice-covered Ward Hunt Lake at latitude 83°N in Nunavut, Canada revealed striking changes in diatom communities and sedimentary pigment concentrations during the last two centuries. Diatoms were found only in the upper 2.5 cm of the sedimentary record, and where present, diatom assemblages were composed almost entirely of Staurosirella pinnata. Photosynthetic pigments were present in low concentrations throughout the sedimentary profile, consistent with the ultra-oligotrophic nutrient status of the lake. Pigment concentrations varied slightly in the lower sections of the core, and began to increase gradually at the 4 cm horizon followed by an increase of two orders of magnitude in the uppermost 2.5 cm. The changes observed in the sedimentary record of Ward Hunt Lake had similar trajectories to those observed post-1850 elsewhere in the circumpolar Arctic, and imply that aquatic communities even in the most extreme northern lakes have been strongly impacted by recent climate warming.

  3. Percolation in interdependent and interconnected networks: Abrupt change from second- to first-order transitions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, Yanqing; Ksherim, Baruch; Cohen, Reuven; Havlin, Shlomo

    2011-12-01

    Robustness of two coupled networks systems has been studied separately only for dependency coupling [Buldyrev , Nature (London)NATUAS0028-083610.1038/nature08932 464, 1025 (2010)] and only for connectivity coupling [Leicht and D’Souza, e-print arXiv:0907.0894]. Here we study, using a percolation approach, a more realistic coupled networks system where both interdependent and interconnected links exist. We find rich and unusual phase-transition phenomena including hybrid transition of mixed first and second order, i.e., discontinuities like in a first-order transition of the giant component followed by a continuous decrease to zero like in a second-order transition. Moreover, we find unusual discontinuous changes from second-order to first-order transition as a function of the dependency coupling between the two networks.

  4. Learned vocal variation is associated with abrupt cryptic genetic change in a parrot species complex.

    PubMed

    Ribot, Raoul F H; Buchanan, Katherine L; Endler, John A; Joseph, Leo; Bennett, Andrew T D; Berg, Mathew L

    2012-01-01

    Contact zones between subspecies or closely related species offer valuable insights into speciation processes. A typical feature of such zones is the presence of clinal variation in multiple traits. The nature of these traits and the concordance among clines are expected to influence whether and how quickly speciation will proceed. Learned signals, such as vocalizations in species having vocal learning (e.g. humans, many birds, bats and cetaceans), can exhibit rapid change and may accelerate reproductive isolation between populations. Therefore, particularly strong concordance among clines in learned signals and population genetic structure may be expected, even among continuous populations in the early stages of speciation. However, empirical evidence for this pattern is often limited because differences in vocalisations between populations are driven by habitat differences or have evolved in allopatry. We tested for this pattern in a unique system where we may be able to separate effects of habitat and evolutionary history. We studied geographic variation in the vocalizations of the crimson rosella (Platycercus elegans) parrot species complex. Parrots are well known for their life-long vocal learning and cognitive abilities. We analysed contact calls across a ca 1300 km transect encompassing populations that differed in neutral genetic markers and plumage colour. We found steep clinal changes in two acoustic variables (fundamental frequency and peak frequency position). The positions of the two clines in vocal traits were concordant with a steep cline in microsatellite-based genetic variation, but were discordant with the steep clines in mtDNA, plumage and habitat. Our study provides new evidence that vocal variation, in a species with vocal learning, can coincide with areas of restricted gene flow across geographically continuous populations. Our results suggest that traits that evolve culturally can be strongly associated with reduced gene flow between

  5. Insolation and Abrupt Climate Change Effects on the Western Pacific Maritime Monsoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Partin, J. W.; Quinn, T. M.; Shen, C.; Cardenas, M. B.; Siringan, F. P.; Banner, J. L.; lin, K.; Taylor, F. W.

    2012-12-01

    The response of the Asian-Australian monsoon system to changes in summer insolation over the Holocene is recorded in many monsoon-sensitive paleoclimate reconstructions. The response is commonly direct; more summer insolation leads to increased monsoon rainfall over land as captured in stalagmite δ18O records from Oman and China. We evaluate this direct response using a maritime stalagmite record from the island of Palawan, Philippines (10 N, 119 E). The wet season in Palawan occurs over the same months (June-October) as in Oman, India and China. Therefore, we expected the stalagmite δ18O record from Palawan, a proxy of rainfall, to have a similar trend of decreasing monsoon rainfall over the Holocene. However, the Holocene trend in stalagmite δ18O is opposite to that expected: rainfall increases over the Holocene. Our explanation for the Holocene trend observed at Palawan is that the increase in the maritime monsoon balances the reduction in the land monsoon; an explanation that is consistent with previously published coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model results. Seawater δ18O reconstructions from marine sediment cores in the western tropical Pacific contain a freshening trend over the Holocene, also supporting the hypothesis of increase maritime monsoon rainfall. However, the decrease in maritime monsoon rainfall during the Younger Dryas at Palawan matches that observed in Chinese stalagmite records, meeting our original expectation of a similar wet season response in the various Asian-Australian monsoon records. One explanation for the similar Younger Dryas response in these monsoon records is the influence of seasonal changes in sea ice coverage, as previously suggested. A stalagmite δ18O record from Borneo (~800 km SE of Palawan), which lacks evidence of the Younger Dryas, provides supporting evidence for this explanation.

  6. Links between abrupt change in tropical hydroclimate, high-latitude climate change, and atmospheric greenhouse gases during the last ice age

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brook, E.; Rhodes, R.; Marcott, S. A.; Bauska, T. K.; Edwards, J. S.; Rosen, J. L.; Ahn, J.; Severinghaus, J. P.; Petrenko, V. V.; Menking, J. A.; Kalk, M.

    2015-12-01

    Development of very high-resolution data from polar ice cores over the last decade reveals a rich spectrum of greenhouse gas variability and its relationship to both tropical and subtropical hydroclimate and high-latitude abrupt climate change. The well-known atmospheric methane variations associated with Dansgaard-Oeschger events are now strongly linked to enhanced wetland emissions in the northern tropics based on recent work on the interpolar methane gradient. An increase in tropical rainfall associated with ITCZ migration is consistent with these observations. In addition, small, on order 5-10 ppm, changes in carbon dioxide accompany at least some Dansgaard-Oeschger events. Changes in terrestrial carbon storage, possibly in the tropics, are one explanation, but new stable isotope measurements indicate that this cannot be the only source for these events, and suggest that rising sea surface temperature must contribute. Very detailed recent data reveal variability during Greenlandic stadial periods that add to the potential links between greenhouse gases and tropical hydroclimate. During the last ice age and deglaciation, small, but rapid increases in atmospheric methane during some "Heinrich Stadials" suggest increases in methane emissions from the southern tropics associated with Heinrich events, possibly due to extreme southerly migration of rainfall belts associated with the ITCZ. Abrupt increases in carbon dioxide occur at precisely the same time as many of these Heinrich Stadial methane events. Stable isotopic data related to two of these abrupt carbon dioxide changes (during HS1 and preliminarily for HS 4) implicate an isotopically depleted source. Rapid release of terrestrial carbon (possibly due to drying in the northern tropics) is a possible explanation, although release of respiratory carbon dioxide from an ocean source (for example, due to increases in southern ocean upwelling) is another plausible alternative, albeit one that requires a fast oceanic

  7. Evaluating persistence and identifying trends and abrupt changes in monthly and annual rainfalls of a semi-arid region in Western India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Machiwal, Deepesh; Jha, Madan Kumar

    2016-01-01

    In this study, 43-year (1965-2007) monthly and annual rainfall time series of ten rainfall stations in a semi-arid region of western India are analyzed by adopting three tests for testing normality and by applying autoregressive technique for exploring persistence. Gradual trends are identified by three tests, and their magnitudes are assessed by the Sen's slope estimator. Also, abrupt changes are detected by using four tests and they are further confirmed by two tests. Box-whisker plots revealed that the rainfalls of June and September are right skewed for all the stations. The annual rainfalls of Bhinder, Dhariawad, and Gogunda stations are found considerably right skewed. The normality tests indicated that the rainfall of July does not deviate from the normal distribution at all the stations. However, the annual rainfall is found non-normal at five stations. The monthly rainfalls of June, July, and August have persistence respectively at three (Mavli, Salumber, and Sarada), two (Kherwara and Sarada), and one (Mavli) stations, whereas the annual rainfall has persistence at Girwa and Mavli stations. Significantly increasing trend is detected at Mavli in the rainfall of July and in the annual rainfall (p value > 0.05), while the negative trend in August rainfall at Dhariawad is found significant (p value > 0.10). This study revealed that the presence of serial correlation does not affect the performance of the Mann-Kendall test. Mean values of trend magnitudes for the rainfalls of June, July, August, and September are 0.3, 0.8, -0.4, and 0.4 mm year-1, respectively, and the overall mean value for the annual rainfall is 0.9 mm year-1. It is found that the standard normal homogeneity test and the Pettitt test are biased towards the end of the series to locate a change point. Conversely, the Bayesian test has a tendency to look for a change point in the beginning of time series. Confirmed abrupt changes in the rainfall time series are found in the year 2003 (Bhinder

  8. Growth and development of Leghorn pullets subjected to abrupt changes in environmental temperature and dietary energy level.

    PubMed

    Leeson, S; Caston, L J

    1991-08-01

    Four trials were conducted to note the response of pullets to changes in environmental temperature and energy level at 56 days of age. In each trial, birds were fed diets providing either 2,500 or 3,000 kcal ME/kg throughout rearing, or with a single diet change from 2,500 to 3,000 and 3,000 to 2,500 kcal ME/kg occurring at 56 days. Each of the four diet scenarios was tested with six replicate caged groups each containing 10 pullets. In Trials 1 and 2 environmental temperature was maintained at 18 and 30 C, respectively, to 126 days. In Trials 3 and 4, temperature was changed at 56 days from 18 to 30 C and 30 to 18 C, respectively. Regardless of environmental temperature conditions, diet change per se had minimal effect on growth and development. Rather dietary energy level used from 56 to 126 days had the greatest effect on growth, with birds fed the highest energy content diet generally being heaviest. However, this effect was not significant (P greater than .05) in all trials, which is probably related to a lack of effect on energy intake under such conditions. Final body weight was more closely associated with energy intake than with protein intake and energy intake was maximized when high-energy diets were used after 56 days of age. Consumption of high-energy diets after 56 days, regardless of trial conditions, always resulted in increased carcass fat content at 126 days. It was concluded that abrupt and major changes in environmental temperature or dietary energy as used in these trials have little deleterious effect on pullet development. Conditions prevailing during later stages of growth have a far greater effect than changes per se in these parameters.

  9. Abrupt Changes at the Permian/Triassic Boundary: Tempo of Events from High-Resolution Cyclostratigraphy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rampino, M. R.; Prokoph, A.; Adler, A. C.

    2000-01-01

    The Permian/Triassic (P/Tr) boundary (251.4 +/- 3 Myr) is marked by the most severe mass extinction in the geologic record. Recently, precise absolute dating has bracketed the marine extinctions and associated carbon-isotope anomaly within less than 1 Myr. We improve this resolution through high-resolution stratigraphy across the P/Tr boundary in the 331-m Gartnerkofel-1 core and nearby Reppwand outcrop section (Carnic Alps, Austria) utilizing FFT and wavelet timeseries analyses of cyclic components in down-hole core logs of density and natural gamma-ray intensity, and carbon-isotopic ratios of bulk samples. The wavelet analysis indicates continuity of deposition across the P/Tr boundary interval, and the timeseries analyses show evidence for persistent cycles in the ratio of approximately 40: 10: 4.7: 2.3 meters, correlated with Milankovitch-band orbital cycles of approximately 412: 100: 40: 20 kyr (eccentricity 1 and 2, obliquity, and precession), and giving a consistent average sedimentation rate of approximately 10 cm/1,000 yr. Milankovitch periods in delta C-13 and density in these shallow-water carbonates were most likely the result of climatically induced oscillations of sea level and climate, coupled with changes in ocean circulation and productivity, that affected sedimentation. Fluctuations in gamma radiation reflect varying input of clay minerals and the presence of shaly interbeds. Throughout the P/Tr boundary interval in the core, the 100,000-year eccentricity cycle seems to be dominant. Weaker obliquity and precession cycles are in line with the location of the Austrian section in the latest Permian, close to the Equator in the western bight of the Tethys, where obliquity and precessional effects on seasonal contrast might be subdued. Using the improved resolution provided by cycle analysis in the GK-1 core, we find that the dramatic change in the faunal record that marks the P/Tr boundary takes place over less than 6m, or less than 60,000 years. In

  10. Abrupt Climate Change & Paleoindian Environments in western Colorado from 17-9 ka yr BP

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Whitlock, C. L.; Briles, C.; Meltzer, D. J.

    2010-12-01

    The late-glacial period was characterized by rapid climate changes that resulted in significant ecosystem reorganizations worldwide. In western Colorado, one of the coldest locations in North American today, mountain environments during the late-glacial period are poorly known. Yet, archeological evidence indicates that Folsom-age Paleoindians were present in the region, perhaps even occasionally over-wintering in the Gunnison Basin during the Younger Dryas Chronozone (YDC; 12.9 to 11.5ka yr BP). To determine the climate, vegetation, and fire history during the late-glacial/early-Holocene transition, a 17-kyr-old sediment core from Lily Pond (38°56’06” N, 106°38’37”W, 3208m elevation) was analyzed for pollen and charcoal and compared with other high-resolution records from the region. The data suggest that, following deglaciation, the region supported an alpine parkland dominated by Artemisia and scattered Picea. Conditions warmed and became wetter than before during the Bølling-Allerød period (B/A; 14.7 to 12.9ka yr BP), when the region was covered by open Picea, Pinus, and Abies forest. Cooling during the YDC is inferred from abundant Picea, slightly more Artemisia and decreased Pinus, which indicate the presence of subalpine parkland. With the onset of the Holocene at ~11.5 ka yr BP, Pinus, Quercus, Artemisia, and Chenopodiaceae increased, suggesting an upslope expansion of xerophytic taxa in response to warmer and effectively drier summers than before or at present. Fire activity was absent prior to 14.7 ka yr BP, increased substantially during the B/A, decreased during the YDC, increased at the beginning of the Holocene, and declined in the early Holocene. The vegetation changes that occurred at Lily Pond are generally consistent with other high-resolution records in the Colorado Rockies in showing cooler-than-present YDC followed by rapid warming. The Lily Lake data provide new information that indicates substantial warming and establishment of

  11. Quantifying Climate Feedbacks from Abrupt Changes in High-Latitude Trace-Gas Emissions

    SciTech Connect

    Zhuang, Qianlai

    2012-11-16

    During the three-year project period, Purdue University has specifically accomplished the following: revised the existing Methane Dynamics Model (MDM) to consider the effects of changes of atmospheric pressure; applied the methane dynamics model (MDM) to Siberian region to demonstrate that ebullition estimates could increase previous estimates of regional terrestrial CH{sub 4} emissions 3- to 7-fold in Siberia; Conducted an analysis of the carbon balance of the Arctic Basin from 1997 to 2006 to show that terrestrial areas of the Arctic were a net source of 41.5 Tg CH{sub 4} yr{sup 1} that increased by 0.6 Tg CH{sub 4} yr{sup 1} during the decade of analysis, a magnitude that is comparable with an atmospheric inversion of CH{sub 4}; improved the quantification of CH{sub 4} fluxes in the Arctic with inversion methods; evaluated AIRS CH4 retrieval data with a transport and inversion model and surface flux and aircraft data; to better quantify methane emissions from wetlands, we extended the MDM within a biogeochemistry model, the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM), to include a large-scale hydrology model, the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model; more recently, we developed a single box atmospheric chemistry model involving atmospheric methane (CH{sub 4}), carbon monoxide (CO) and radical hydroxyl (OH) to analyze atmospheric CH{sub 4} concentrations from 1984 to 2008.

  12. Examining the potential impact of a warming ocean on food insecure Africa: concerns and mechanisms for abrupt climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Funk, C.; Dettinger, M.; Verdin, J.

    2007-12-01

    Given that more than 200 million sub-Saharan Africans are food insecure, abrupt climate change in Africa could be devastating. Recent observations for eastern and southern Africa suggest substantial declines in main growing season rainfall over the past 20 years. In this talk we present research from a multi-year study that examined the causes and implications of these drying trends. Our statistical and dynamic modeling results suggest that warming in the Indian Ocean has been linked to increased oceanic convection and disruptions in onshore moisture transports. These moisture transport disruptions, in turn, are probably associated with an increased frequency in agricultural drought in sub-tropical countries along Africa's eastern seaboard. This 'warm ocean-dry Africa' dipole appears to be a major driver of decadal variability. An evaluation of 11 climate change models suggests that increased tropical Indian Ocean precipitation, and the associated moisture transport disruptions, may in fact be anthropogenic, accounting for at least part of the regional drought tendencies in eastern and southern Africa over the past 20 years. These simulations also suggest continued increases in oceanic convection will be very likely over the next century. This diabatic forcing will likely produce continuing rainfall declines across 7 food insecure nations. These drying trends, combined with declining per capita agricultural capacity, are likely to contribute to a ~250 percent increase in food shortages over the next 30 years. Modest agricultural and market development, however, could alleviate the food problem substantially.

  13. Blood plasma magnesium, potassium, glucose, and immunoreactive insulin changes in cows moved abruptly from barn feeding to early spring pasture

    SciTech Connect

    Miller, J.K.; Madsen, F.C.; Lentz, D.E.; Wong, W.O.; Ramsey, N.; Tysinger, C.E.; Hansard, S.L.

    1980-07-01

    Cations and immunoreactive insulin in plasma were measured in 35 lactating cows moved abruptly to early spring pasture. After change of cows from grass-clover hay to fescue-bluegrass pasture containing 22 to 31 g potassium/kg dry matter, immunoreactive insulin of 5 Holstein cows increased 30% in 5 days and averaged 45% above prepasture concentrations for 40 days. Magnesium averaged 44% below prepasture content of plasma during this period and was correlated negatively with potassium -.17 and immunoreactive insulin -.37. Thirty Hereford cows were changed from corn silage and grass-clover hay to wheat-rye pasture containing 3.06% potassium in the dry matter. Each day on pasture, 10 cows each were fed 2.3 kg cornmeal, 10 were given 30 g magnesium oxide by capsule, and 10 were given no supplement. After unsupplemented cows were moved to pasture, immunoreactive insulin rose 51% in 8 days and plasma magnesium fell 24%. Both supplements reduced immunoreactive insulin, but magnesium was maintained higher by magnesium oxide than by cornmeal. Injection of two Holstein cows with insulin (2 IU/kg body weight) reduced plasma concentrations of both potassium and mgnesium 20% below that of two cows injected with only physiological saline. Whether elevated plasma insulin may accelerate development of hypomagnesemia in cattle on spring pasture with relatively high potassium content has not been established.

  14. Blood plasma magnesium, potassium, glucose, and immunoreactive insulin changes in cows moved abruptly from barn feeding to early spring pasture.

    PubMed

    Miller, J K; Madsen, F C; Lentz, D E; Wong, W O; Ramsey, N; Tysinger, C E; Hansard, S L

    1980-07-01

    Cations and immunoreactive insulin in plasma were measured in 35 lactating cows moved abruptly to early spring pasture. After change of cows from grass-clover hay to fescue-bluegrass pasture containing 22 to 31 g potassium/kg dry matter, immunoreactive insulin of 5 Holstein cows increased 30% in 5 days and averaged 45% above prepasture concentrations for 40 days. Magnesium averaged 44% below prepasture content of plasma during this period and was correlated negatively with potassium -.17 and immunoreactive insulin -.37. Thirty Herford cows were changed from corn silage and grass-clover hay to wheat-rye pasture containing 3.06% potassium in the dry matter. Each day on pasture, 10 cows each were fed 2.3 kg cornmeal, 10 were given 30 g magnesium oxide by capsule, and 10 were given no supplement. After unsupplemented cows were moved to pasture, immunoreactive insulin rose 51% in 8 days and plasma magnesium fell 24%. Both supplements reduced immunoreactive insulin, but magnesium was maintained higher by magnesium oxide than by cornmeal. Injection of two Holstein cows with insulin (2 IU/kg body weight) reduced plasma concentrations of both potassium and magnesium 20% below that of two cows injected with only physiological saline. Whether elevated plasma insulin may accelerate development of hypomagnesemia in cattle on spring pasture with relatively high potassium content has not been established.

  15. Thermopower evidence for an abrupt Fermi surface change at the quantum critical point of YbRh2Si2.

    PubMed

    Hartmann, Stefanie; Oeschler, Niels; Krellner, Cornelius; Geibel, Christoph; Paschen, Silke; Steglich, Frank

    2010-03-05

    We present low-temperature thermopower results, S(T), on the heavy-fermion compound YbRh2Si2 in the vicinity of its field-induced quantum critical point (QCP). At B=0, a logarithmic increase of -S(T)/T between 1 and 0.1 K reveals strong non-Fermi-liquid behavior. A pronounced downturn of -S(T)/T below T{max}=0.1 K and a sign change from negative to positive S(T) values at T{0} approximately 30 mK are observed on the low-field side of the Kondo breakdown crossover line T{*}(B). In the field-induced, heavy Landau-Fermi-liquid regime, S(T)/T assumes constant, negative values below T{LFL}. A pronounced crossover in the -S(B)/T isotherms at T{*}(B) sharpens with decreasing T and seems to evolve toward a steplike function for T-->0. This is attributed to an abrupt change of the Fermi volume upon crossing the unconventional QCP of YbRh2Si2.

  16. Abrupt changes in the seasonal cycle of North American snow cover

    SciTech Connect

    Leathers, D.J.; Robinson, D.A.

    1997-10-01

    Continental-scale snow cover extent has now been monitored from space for more than 20 yr in visible wavelengths. Here, the authors utilize weekly snow cover extent charts derived from such analyses to identify unusually rapid (1 week) spatially extensive snow cover accumulation and ablation events across the North American continent. Ancillary data are employed to describe the atmospheric patterns associated with the events. These episodes, which occur irregularly from year to year, bring about important changes in the total albedo of the continent. Rapid extensive accumulation events occur during two preferred portions of the accumulation season. The early season accumulation events average 1-week snow cover increases of 3.9 x 10{sup 6} km{sup 2} and begin near the end of October. Late season accumulation events occur 1 month later and lead to average increases of 3.5 x 10{sup 6} km{sup 2}. These rapid advances in the North American snowpack are associated with distinct and consistent atmospheric anomalies that are conducive to spatially extensive snowfalls. Rapid ablation events also fall into two groupings based upon their timing within the annual cycle. Early season ablation episodes occur near the middle of March and account for snow cover losses averaging 2.1 x 10{sup 6} km{sup 2}. Early ablation events are associated with fluxes of sensible and latent heat induced by atmospheric disturbances moving along the Canadian-U.S. border. Late season events occur near the middle of May and are generally associated with anomalous high pressure at the surface and aloft over eastern Canada. This category of ablation events is not associated with large sensible heat flux to the snowpack. The loss of snow cover is more likely associated with downwelling longwave radiation fluxes from cloudy skies or shortwave radiation fluxes under clear-sky conditions. 31 refs., 9 figs., 1 tab.

  17. Could Have Gone Wrong: Effects of Abrupt Changes in Migratory Behaviour on Harvest in a Waterbird Population

    PubMed Central

    Madsen, Jesper; Christensen, Thomas Kjær; Balsby, Thorsten J. S.; Tombre, Ingunn M.

    2015-01-01

    To sustainably exploit a population, it is crucial to understand and reduce uncertainties about population processes and effects of harvest. In migratory species, management is challenged by geographically separated changing environmental conditions, which may cause unexpected changes in species distribution and harvest. We describe the development in the harvest of Svalbard-breeding pink-footed geese (Anser brachyrhynchus) in relation to the observed trajectory and migratory behaviour of the population. In autumn, geese migrate via stopover sites in Norway and Denmark (where they are hunted) to wintering grounds in the Netherlands and Belgium (where they are protected). In Denmark and Norway harvesting increased stepwise during the 2000s. The increase in the population size only partly explained the change. The change corresponded to a simultaneous stepwise increase in numbers of geese staging in Denmark throughout autumn and winter; geese also moved further inland to feed which collectively increased their exposure to hunting. In Norway the increase in harvest reflected greater utilisation of lowland farmland areas by geese, increasing their hunting exposure. The study demonstrates how changes in migratory behaviour can abruptly affect exposure to hunting, which showed a functional response to increased temporal and spatial availability of geese. The harvest has now reached a level likely to cause a population decline. It highlights the need for flexible, internationally coordinated hunting regulations and reliable up-to-date population estimates and hunting bag statistics, which are rare in European management of migratory waterbirds. Without such information decisions are left with judgments based on population estimates, which often have time lags of several years between recording and reporting, hampering possibilities for the timely adjustment of management actions. PMID:26247849

  18. Abrupt temperature changes and contrasted hydrological responses during Greenland Stadial 1 in northern Iberia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bartolomé, Miguel; Moreno, Ana; Sancho, Carlos; Stoll, Heather; Cacho, Isabel; Spötl, Christoph; Edwards, R. Lawrence; Cheng, Hai; Hellstrom, John

    2016-04-01

    Greenland Stadial 1 (GS-1) was the last of a long series of severe cooling episodes in the Northern Hemisphere during the last glacial period, whose origin is attributed to the complex interaction of intense weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, moderate negative radiative forcing and an altered atmospheric circulation (Renssen et al., 2015). As a result, marine and terrestrial records from the North Atlantic region indicate a cooling of several degrees, being larger in high latitudes (up to 4° C) and diminishing towards the southeast (0.5° C) (Heiri et al., 2014). Here, we present the first stalagmite record that covers the entire GS-1 period in Southern Europe, providing an excellent and independent chronological framework and a high-resolution climate reconstruction of this event (Bartolomé et al., 2015). The stalagmite is from Seso Cave from the central Pyrenees (42° 27'23.08''N, 0° 02'23.18''E, 794 m asl) where a 3-year monitoring survey, together with the analyses of actively growing modern stalagmites, allows climate proxies in stalagmites to be calibrated to the instrumental record. Thus, analysis of oxygen isotopes in a modern stalagmite from Seso Cave suggests a strong dependence on air temperature through its influence on rainfall δ18O, providing a reliable proxy for the temperature evolution during GS-1. According to these calculations, the δ18O change of 2.14‰ during GS-1 is considered to represent a 1.3 ° C drop of the annual temperature. Besides reflecting GS-1 cooling in the Pyrenees, the Seso Cave stalagmite is used here to investigate the timing and forcing of a mid-GS-1 climate transition previously reported from northern European records (Lane et al., 2012). δ13C and Mg/Ca of Seso samples show higher values between 12,920 y b2k and 12,500 y b2k, a gradual decrease until ca. 12,000 y b2k, and a period with lower values until the Holocene onset at 11,700 y b2k. This pattern, although still at low resolution due

  19. Monitoring channel head erosion processes in response to an artificially induced abrupt base level change using time-lapse photography 2301

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Headcut and channel extension in response to an abrupt base level change in 2004 of approximately 1m was studied in a 1.29 ha semiarid headwater drainage on the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed (WGEW) in southeastern Arizona, USA. Field observations and time-lapse photography were coupled with hy...

  20. Climatic and human impacts on quasi-periodic and abrupt changes of sedimentation rate at multiple time scales in Lake Taihu, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Huiyu; Xu, Xiaojuan; Lin, Zhenshan; Zhang, Mingyang; Mi, Ying; Huang, Changchun; Yang, Hao

    2016-12-01

    With the ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition Method (EEMD) and the non-parametric Mann-Kendall Test, the quasi-periodic and abrupt changes of sedimentation rate at multiple time scales, and their relations to climate changes and human activities from 1951 to 2010 in Meiliang Bay of Lake Taihu (China) were studied. The results showed the following. (1) The change in sedimentation rate can be completely decomposed into three quasi-periodic changes on 3.7, 6.4, and 24-yr time scales, and a long-term trend. (2) The quasi-periodic changes in sedimentation rate are significantly and positively related to changes in annual average temperature at 6.4 and 24-yr time scales and human activities at 3.7-yr time scales, and not significantly related to precipitation at these time scales. The trend of sedimentation rate has a negative relation with temperature, but positive relations with precipitation and human activities. As a whole, the total variance contribution of climate changes to the quasi-periodic changes of sedimentation rate is close to that of human activities; (3) Temperature and precipitation are possibly related to the abrupt change of sedimentation rate as a whole. Floods have significant impacts on abrupt changes in the sedimentation rate at 3.7, 6.4 and 24-yr time scales. Moreover, some abrupt changes of sedimentation rate at 3.7- and 6.4-yr time scales are partly related to the changes of precipitation at 3.1-yr time scale and temperature at 5-yr time scale. The results of this study will help identify the impacts of climate change and human activities on lake sedimentation at different time scales, and will be available for use as a guide for reasonable development and effective protection of lake resources.

  1. Modeling dust emission variations in Eastern Europe related to North-Atlantic abrupt climate changes of the last glacial period

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sima, A.; Kageyama, M.; Rousseau, D.; Ramstein, G.; Schulz, M.; Balkanski, Y.; Antoine, P.; Dulac, F.; Hatte, C.; Lagroix, F.; Gerasimenko, N.

    2010-12-01

    The European loess sequences of the last glacial period (~ 100-15 kyr BP) show periods of strong dust accumulation alternating with episodes of reduced (or no) sedimentation, allowing soil development. For the main loess sedimentation period (~ 40 - 15 kyr BP), data indicate a correlation between these variations and the North Atlantic rapid climate changes: the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) and Heinrich (H) events. We use numerical modeling to investigate the relationship between the North-Atlantic abrupt changes and the sedimentation variations in Europe. A first study (Sima et al, QSR, 2009) focused on western Europe, and addressed the impact on dust emission of North-Atlantic SST changes as those associated to DO and H events. It proposed that vegetation played a key role in modulating dust emission variations in western European source areas. Here we focus on eastern Europe, especially on the areas north and north-east of the Carpathian Mountains, where loess deposits have recorded DO and H events (Rousseau et al. Clim. Past D, 2010). As in the previous study, we use the LMDZ AGCM and the SECHIBA land-surface models to simulate a reference glacial state (“stadial”), a cold (“HE”) and a warm (“DO interstadial”) perturbation, all corresponding to Marine Isotope Stage 3 conditions. We follow the same protocol as for the study on the west-European sector to analyze the impact of the climate factors and surface conditions on dust emission. The simulated most active emission areas are compatible with the loess deposit distribution, and the key role of vegetation in stadial-interstadial dust emission variations is confirmed.

  2. Detectability of onsets versus offsets in the change detection paradigm.

    PubMed

    Cole, Geoff G; Kentridge, Robert W; Gellatly, Angus R H; Heywood, Charles A

    2003-01-01

    The human visual system is particularly sensitive to abrupt onset of new objects that appear in the visual field. Onsets have been shown to capture attention even when other transients simultaneously occur. This has led some authors to argue for the special role that object onset plays in attentional capture. However, evidence from the change detection paradigm appears contradictory to such findings. Studies of change blindness demonstrate that the onset of new objects can often go unnoticed. Assessing the relative detectability of onsets compared with other visual transients in a change detection procedure may help resolve this contradiction. We report the results of four experiments investigating the efficacy with which onsets capture attention compared with offsets. In Experiment 1, we employed a standard flicker procedure and assessed whether participants were more likely to detect the change following a frame containing an onset or following a frame containing an offset. In Experiment 2, we employed the one-shot method and investigated whether participants detected more onsets or offsets. Experiment 3 used the same method but assessed whether onsets would be detected more rapidly than offsets. In Experiment 4, we investigated whether the effect obtained in Experiments 1-3 using simple shapes would replicate when images of real-world objects were used. Results showed that onsets were less susceptible to change blindness than were offsets. We argue that the preservation of information is greater in onsets than in offsets.

  3. Coral Evidence for Abrupt Changes in Ocean-Atmosphere Dynamics in the SW Pacific since 1565 AD

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hendy, E. J.; Gagan, M. K.; McCulloch, M. T.; Lough, J. M.

    2004-12-01

    A coral-based multi-tracer approach can give an overview of the whole tropical ocean-atmosphere system. Key indicators are sea surface temperature (SST), which sets climate boundary conditions, sea surface salinity (SSS), which provides a measure of energy transfer through the evaporation-precipitation balance, and river runoff, which can establish the strength and variability of precipitation. We present palaeoenvironmental records from eight massive { \\it Porites} coral colonies, spanning 120 to 420 years of continuous growth, collected from the central Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Stable isotopes (\\delta18O and \\delta13C), Sr/Ca, U/Ca, and Ba/Ca ratios were measured in 5-year increments and a record of annual UV luminescence was developed. By replicating the measurements between colonies we demonstrate how faithfully corals record changes in their environment over decadal-to-centennial timescales, constructing composite records in a manner analogous to dendroclimatology and confidence intervals for each proxy. The competing environmental influences affecting a number of tracers can be distinguished by comparison between the SST-tracers (Sr/Ca, U/Ca, \\delta18O), the freshwater flux tracers (\\Delta\\delta18O, Ba/Ca and luminescence) and tracers of water mass characteristics (\\delta18O, \\delta13C, and \\Delta14C). The coral palaeothermometers Sr/Ca and U/Ca ratios, measured in tandem with \\delta18O, allow the separation of SST changes from changes in seawater \\delta18O, thereby resolving SSS. The composite Sr/Ca and U/Ca are in excellent agreement back to 1565, and capture the 20th century warming trend, up to the 1980s when the cores were collected. The most remarkable feature of the 420-year record is that SSTs were consistently as warm as the second half of the 20th century from the early 18th and through most of the 19th centuries. Changes in the evaporation-precipitation balance dominate the \\delta18O record. A striking 0.2\\permil\\ shift from the

  4. An abrupt centennial-scale drought event and mid-holocene climate change patterns in monsoon marginal zones of East Asia.

    PubMed

    Li, Yu; Wang, Nai'ang; Zhang, Chengqi

    2014-01-01

    The mid-latitudes of East Asia are characterized by the interaction between the Asian summer monsoon and the westerly winds. Understanding long-term climate change in the marginal regions of the Asian monsoon is critical for understanding the millennial-scale interactions between the Asian monsoon and the westerly winds. Abrupt climate events are always associated with changes in large-scale circulation patterns; therefore, investigations into abrupt climate changes provide clues for responses of circulation patterns to extreme climate events. In this paper, we examined the time scale and mid-Holocene climatic background of an abrupt dry mid-Holocene event in the Shiyang River drainage basin in the northwest margin of the Asian monsoon. Mid-Holocene lacustrine records were collected from the middle reaches and the terminal lake of the basin. Using radiocarbon and OSL ages, a centennial-scale drought event, which is characterized by a sand layer in lacustrine sediments both from the middle and lower reaches of the basin, was absolutely dated between 8.0-7.0 cal kyr BP. Grain size data suggest an abrupt decline in lake level and a dry environment in the middle reaches of the basin during the dry interval. Previous studies have shown mid-Holocene drought events in other places of monsoon marginal zones; however, their chronologies are not strong enough to study the mechanism. According to the absolutely dated records, we proposed a new hypothesis that the mid-Holocene dry interval can be related to the weakening Asian summer monsoon and the relatively arid environment in arid Central Asia. Furthermore, abrupt dry climatic events are directly linked to the basin-wide effective moisture change in semi-arid and arid regions. Effective moisture is affected by basin-wide precipitation, evapotranspiration, lake surface evaporation and other geographical settings. As a result, the time scales of the dry interval could vary according to locations due to different geographical

  5. Microbial Community Dynamics from Permafrost Across the Pleistocene-Holocene Boundary and Response to Abrupt Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hammad, A.; Mahony, M.; Froese, D. G.; Lanoil, B. D.

    2014-12-01

    Earth is currently undergoing rapid warming similar to that observed about 10,000 years ago at the end of the Pleistocene. We know a considerable amount about the adaptations and extinctions of mammals and plants at the Pleistocene/Holocene (P/H) boundary, but relatively little about changes at the microbial level. Due to permafrost soils' freezing anoxic conditions, they act as microbial diversity archives allowing us to determine how microbial communities adapted to the abrupt warming at the end of P. Since microbial community composition only helps differentiate viable and extant microorganisms in frozen permafrost, microbial activity in thawing permafrost must be investigated to provide a clear understanding of microbial response to climate change. Current increased temperatures will result in warming and potential thaw of permafrost and release of stored organic carbon, freeing it for microbial utilization; turning permafrost into a carbon source. Studying permafrost viable microbial communities' diversity and activity will provide a better understanding of how these microorganisms respond to soil edaphic variability due to climate change across the P/H boundary, providing insight into the changes that the soil community is currently undergoing in this modern era of rapid climate change. Modern soil, H and P permafrost cores were collected from Lucky Lady II site outside Dawson City, Yukon. 16S rRNA high throughput sequencing of permafrost DNA showed the same trends for total and viable community richness and diversity with both decreasing with permafrost depth and only the richness increasing in mid and early P. The modern, H and P soils had 50.9, 33.9, and 27.3% unique viable species and only 14% of the total number of viable species were shared by all soils. Gas flux measurements of thawed permafrost showed metabolic activity in modern and permafrost soils, aerobic CH­­4 consumption in modern, some H and P soils, and anaerobic CH­­4 production in one H

  6. Investigating Potential Causes for An Abrupt Change of Thermal State in Earth's Upper Mantle During the Great Oxygenation Event

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, M.; McNamara, A. K.

    2014-12-01

    The oxygenic photosynthesis might have well evolved about 3 billion years ago, but there seems no great increase of atmospheric oxygen until the great oxygenation event (GOE) at about 2.4 Ga. One possibility for the suppressing of atmospheric oxygen level before the GOE is through consumption of oxygen by reduced volcanic gasses. The amount of atmospheric oxygen that could be consumed by volcanic gases depends on the absolute amount of volcanic gases as well as the redox state of the upper mantle. Evidence from the redox sensitive V/Sc ratio have shown that the redox state of the upper mantle have remained constant for the last 3.5 billion years (e.g., Li and Lee, 2004). If so, abrupt changes in thermal state of Earth's upper mantle could explain the rapid changes of degassing rate at the time of GOE. The Earth's lowermost mantle has been shown to be compositionally heterogeneous, which could be caused by the presence of dense, primordial material resulting from early differentiation processes. An important question is how do chemical heterogeneities in the lowermost mantle influence the secular cooling of the upper mantle. Here, we performed numerical calculations to explore the effects of themochemical convection on the thermal evolution of Earth's upper mantle. A large parameter space is explored, with varying Rayleigh number, viscosity, internal heating and density of chemical heterogeneities. We start with an initially hot mantle with a layer of dense material in the lowermost mantle. We found that when the mantle is hot, the dense material remains layered and covers the entire CMB, leading to low CMB heat flux. In this stage, the upper mantle cools down rapidly. However, as the mantle cools, the dense material is swept into discrete thermochemical piles by cold downwellings, leading to increasing CMB heat flux. The cooling rate of the mantle is temporarily reduced as this transition occurs. This occurs at a time consistent with the GOE event. Li, Z. X. A. and

  7. Coccolithophore response to Abrupt and short-term climate changes in the Gulf of Lions (Western Mediterranean) during the last climatic cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Flores, J.; Gravalosa, J.; Colmenero-Hidalgo, E.; Sierro, F. J.; Canals, M.; Frigola, J.; Grimalt, J.; Berné, S.; Dannielou, B.

    2007-12-01

    Cores PRGL-1 (310 m long) and MD99-2348 (21.5 m long) were recovered in the Gulf of Lions (42.690N; 03.838 E) at 298.48 m water depth, during the PROMESS 1 campaign (SRV Bavenit drilling vessel) and IMAGES V (RV Marion Dufresne, Calypso piston core), respectively. The high sedimentation rates -estimated by robust 14C dating- have given us an excellent opportunity to perform high resolution analyses on these materials. In this study we present data from the last 25 kys. The retrieved sediments consist of silty-clay terrigenous material mixed with a small amount of calcareous microfossils. Quantitative analyses of coccolithophore assemblages allow us to identify significant changes in sea surface temperature in this period. Cold peaks are marked by increases in the proportion of Gephyrocapsa muellerae and large morphotypes of Emiliania huxleyi (>5 m); some of the most significant can be correlated with Heinrich events. The high sedimentation rates observed during most of the studied interval also allow us to identify an overprinted multicentennial scale pattern related to Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles. The combined analyses of coccolithophores and planktonic foraminifers permits to produce a sea surface temperature (SST) record in which sharp fluctuations of around 4º C in amplitude have been detected. These abrupt changes in SST are also linked to changes in surface productivity and in the deep and intermediate water dynamics, probably related with variations in the atmospheric pattern (NAO-like oscillations). PROMESS 1 is funded by the European Community (EVR1-T-40024).

  8. Abrupt changes in stemflow with growth in a young stand of Japanese cypress: The cause and ecohydrological interpretation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murakami, Shigeki

    2010-05-01

    Stemflow (SF) measurements have been conducted for various kinds of tree species all over the world, but few of them focus on the intraspecific changes in SF with age. In this study, SF was measured in a young stand of Japanese cypress (Chamaecyparis obtusa, age 9 to 12), one of the major species for plantations in the country, for four consecutive years (Murakami, 2009; Hydrological Research Letters). The stemflow plot was set at the Hitachi Ohta Experimental Watershed on the Pacific coast of eastern Japan. Canopy cover increased 55% to 94% during the period. Stemflow gauges were set on 9 trees, and stemflow water flowed into a tank that was automatically drained when the water level reached the maximum. The water level in the tank was measured to calculate stemflow per unit ground area. Gross rainfall (R) was measured using tipping bucket raingauges at the openings on the ground level. The stemflow data was analyzed on a rain event basis with the separation time of 6 hours: if rainfall is not observed more than 6 hours after the cessation of rainfall, the storm is defined as a single rain event. At age 9 the ratio of SF to R (SF/R) was 5.9% on an annual basis, but at age 10 it suddenly dropped down to 2.8% followed by 3.8% at age 11 and 4.3% at age 12. It is surprising that SF/R was the highest at age 9, the youngest, with the canopy cover of only 55%, as opposed to the reasonable increase during age 10 and older. This trend holds true for the analyses both on a quarterly and on a rain event basis. A stem combined with the canopy collects rainwater like a funnel. The efficiency of collecting rainwater by the stem and canopy system is expressed as the funneling ratio (FR; Herwitz, 1986; Earth Surface Processes and Landforms). The value of FR was 81.3 at age 9, and as opposed to the values of SF/R, FR remained constant at older ages: 30.0, 31.4, and 29.0 at ages 10, 11, and 12, respectively. A photographic analysis revealed that the abrupt drop in SF/R at age 10

  9. SAR change detection MTI

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scarborough, Steven; Lemanski, Christopher; Nichols, Howard; Owirka, Gregory; Minardi, Michael; Hale, Todd

    2006-05-01

    This paper examines the theory, application, and results of using single-channel synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data with Moving Reference Processing (MRP) to focus and geolocate moving targets. Moving targets within a standard SAR imaging scene are defocused, displaced, or completely missing in the final image. Building on previous research at AFRL, the SAR-MRP method focuses and geolocates moving targets by reprocessing the SAR data to focus the movers rather than the stationary clutter. SAR change detection is used so that target detection and focusing is performed more robustly. In the cases where moving target returns possess the same range versus slow-time histories, a geolocation ambiguity results. This ambiguity can be resolved in a number of ways. This paper concludes by applying the SAR-MRP method to high-frequency radar measurements from persistent continuous-dwell SAR observations of a moving target.

  10. Planetary period oscillations in Saturn's magnetosphere: Examining the relationship between abrupt changes in behavior and solar wind-induced magnetospheric compressions and expansions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Provan, G.; Tao, C.; Cowley, S. W. H.; Dougherty, M. K.; Coates, A. J.

    2015-11-01

    We examine planetary period oscillations (PPOs) observed in Saturn's magnetospheric magnetic field data from the time of Saturn's equinox in 2009. In particular, we focus on the time period commencing February 2011, when the oscillations started to display sudden and unexpected changes in behavior at ~100-200 day intervals. These were characterized by large simultaneous changes in the amplitude of the northern and southern PPO systems, together with small changes in period and jumps in phase. Nine significant abrupt changes have been observed in the postequinox interval to date, commencing as the Sun started to emerge from a long extended solar minimum. We perform a statistical study to determine whether these modulations in PPO behavior were associated with changes in the solar and/or upstream solar wind conditions. We report that the upstream solar wind conditions show elevated values of solar wind dynamic pressure and density around the time of PPO behavioral transitions, as opposed to before and after these times. We suggest that abrupt changes in PPO behavior may be related to significant changes in the size of the Saturnian magnetosphere in response to varying solar wind conditions.

  11. Abrupt Climate Change and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: sensitivity and non-linear response to Arctic/sub-Arctic freshwater pulses. Collaborative research. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Hill, Christopher

    2015-06-15

    This project investigated possible mechanisms by which melt-water pulses can induce abrupt change in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) magnitude. AMOC magnitude is an important ingredient in present day climate. Previous studies have hypothesized abrupt reduction in AMOC magnitude in response to influxes of glacial melt water into the North Atlantic. Notable fresh-water influxes are associated with the terminus of the last ice age. During this period large volumes of melt water accumulated behind retreating ice sheets and subsequently drained rapidly when the ice weakened sufficiently. Rapid draining of glacial lakes into the North Atlantic is a possible origin of a number of paleo-record abrupt climate shifts. These include the Younger-Dryas cooling event and the 8,200 year cooling event. The studies undertaken focused on whether the mechanistic sequence by which glacial melt-water impacts AMOC, which then impacts Northern Hemisphere global mean surface temperature, is dynamically plausible. The work has implications for better understanding past climate stability. The work also has relevance for today’s environment, in which high-latitude ice melting in Greenland appears to be driving fresh water outflows at an accelerating pace.

  12. Change Detection: Training and Transfer

    PubMed Central

    Gaspar, John G.; Neider, Mark B.; Simons, Daniel J.; McCarley, Jason S.; Kramer, Arthur F.

    2013-01-01

    Observers often fail to notice even dramatic changes to their environment, a phenomenon known as change blindness. If training could enhance change detection performance in general, then it might help to remedy some real-world consequences of change blindness (e.g. failing to detect hazards while driving). We examined whether adaptive training on a simple change detection task could improve the ability to detect changes in untrained tasks for young and older adults. Consistent with an effective training procedure, both young and older adults were better able to detect changes to trained objects following training. However, neither group showed differential improvement on untrained change detection tasks when compared to active control groups. Change detection training led to improvements on the trained task but did not generalize to other change detection tasks. PMID:23840775

  13. Electrophysiological correlates of change detection.

    PubMed

    Eimer, Martin; Mazza, Veronica

    2005-05-01

    To identify electrophysiological correlates of change detection, event-related brain potentials (ERPs) were recorded while participants monitored displays containing four faces in order to detect a face identity change across successive displays. Successful change detection was mirrored by an N2pc component at posterior electrodes contralateral to the side of a change, suggesting close links between conscious change detection and attention. ERPs on undetected-change trials differed from detected-change and no-change trials. We suggest that short-latency ERP differences between these trial types reflect trial-by-trial fluctuations in advance task preparation, whereas differences in the P3 time range are due to variations in the duration of perceptual and decision-related processing. Overall, these findings demonstrate that ERPs are a useful tool for dissociating processes underlying change blindness and change detection.

  14. Abrupt changes in the patterns and complexity of anterior cingulate cortex activity when food is introduced into an environment

    PubMed Central

    Caracheo, Barak F.; Emberly, Eldon; Hadizadeh, Shirin; Hyman, James M.; Seamans, Jeremy K.

    2013-01-01

    Foraging typically involves two distinct phases, an exploration phase where an organism explores its local environment in search of needed resources and an exploitation phase where a discovered resource is consumed. The behavior and cognitive requirements of exploration and exploitation are quite different and yet organisms can quickly and efficiently switch between them many times during a foraging bout. The present study investigated neural activity state dynamics in the anterior cingulate sub-region of the rat medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) when a reliable food source was introduced into an environment. Distinct and largely independent states were detected using a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) when food was present or absent in the environment. Measures of neural entropy or complexity decreased when rats went from exploring the environment to exploiting a reliable food source. Exploration in the absence of food was associated with many weak activity states, while bouts of food consumption were characterized by fewer stronger states. Widespread activity state changes in the mPFC may help to inform foraging decisions and focus behavior on what is currently most prominent or valuable in the environment. PMID:23745102

  15. V346 Centauri: Early-type eclipsing binary with apsidal motion and abrupt change of orbital period

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mayer, Pavel; Harmanec, Petr; Wolf, Marek; Nemravová, Jana; Prša, Andrej; Frémat, Yves; Zejda, Miloslav; Liška, Jiři; Juryšek, Jakub; Hoňková, Kateřina; Mašek, Martin

    2016-06-01

    New physical elements of the early B-type eclipsing binary V346 Cen are derived using the HARPS spectra downloaded from the ESO archive and also numerous photometric observations from various sources. A model of the observed times of primary and secondary minima that fits them best is a combination of the apsidal motion and an abrupt decrease in the orbital period from 6.^d322123 to 6.^d321843 (shortening by 24 s), which occurred somewhere around JD 2 439 000. Assumption of a secularly decreasing orbital period provides a significantly worse fit. Local times of minima and the final solution of the light curve were obtained with the program PHOEBE. Radial velocities of both binary components, free of line blending, were derived via 2D cross-correlation with a program built on the principles of the program TODCOR. The oxygen lines in the secondary spectra are weaker than those in the model spectra of solar chemical composition. Using the component spectra disentangled with the program KOREL, we find that both components rotate considerably faster than would correspond to the synchronization at periastron. The apside rotation known from earlier studies is confirmed and compared to the theoretical value. Based on observations made with the ESO telescopes at the La Silla Paranal Observatory under programmes ID 083.D-0040(A), 085.C-0614(A), and 178.D-0361(B).Tables A.2-A.6 are only available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (http://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/591/A129

  16. Evaluating the Impact of Abrupt Changes in Forest Policy and Management Practices on Landscape Dynamics: Analysis of a Landsat Image Time Series in the Atlantic Northern Forest

    PubMed Central

    Legaard, Kasey R.; Sader, Steven A.; Simons-Legaard, Erin M.

    2015-01-01

    Sustainable forest management is based on functional relationships between management actions, landscape conditions, and forest values. Changes in management practices make it fundamentally more difficult to study these relationships because the impacts of current practices are difficult to disentangle from the persistent influences of past practices. Within the Atlantic Northern Forest of Maine, U.S.A., forest policy and management practices changed abruptly in the early 1990s. During the 1970s-1980s, a severe insect outbreak stimulated salvage clearcutting of large contiguous tracts of spruce-fir forest. Following clearcut regulation in 1991, management practices shifted abruptly to near complete dependence on partial harvesting. Using a time series of Landsat satellite imagery (1973-2010) we assessed cumulative landscape change caused by these very different management regimes. We modeled predominant temporal patterns of harvesting and segmented a large study area into groups of landscape units with similar harvest histories. Time series of landscape composition and configuration metrics averaged within groups revealed differences in landscape dynamics caused by differences in management history. In some groups (24% of landscape units), salvage caused rapid loss and subdivision of intact mature forest. Persistent landscape change was created by large salvage clearcuts (often averaging > 100 ha) and conversion of spruce-fir to deciduous and mixed forest. In groups that were little affected by salvage (56% of landscape units), contemporary partial harvesting caused loss and subdivision of intact mature forest at even greater rates. Patch shape complexity and edge density reached high levels even where cumulative harvest area was relatively low. Contemporary practices introduced more numerous and much smaller patches of stand-replacing disturbance (typically averaging <15 ha) and a correspondingly large amount of edge. Management regimes impacted different areas to

  17. Evaluating the impact of abrupt changes in forest policy and management practices on landscape dynamics: analysis of a Landsat image time series in the Atlantic Northern Forest.

    PubMed

    Legaard, Kasey R; Sader, Steven A; Simons-Legaard, Erin M

    2015-01-01

    Sustainable forest management is based on functional relationships between management actions, landscape conditions, and forest values. Changes in management practices make it fundamentally more difficult to study these relationships because the impacts of current practices are difficult to disentangle from the persistent influences of past practices. Within the Atlantic Northern Forest of Maine, U.S.A., forest policy and management practices changed abruptly in the early 1990s. During the 1970s-1980s, a severe insect outbreak stimulated salvage clearcutting of large contiguous tracts of spruce-fir forest. Following clearcut regulation in 1991, management practices shifted abruptly to near complete dependence on partial harvesting. Using a time series of Landsat satellite imagery (1973-2010) we assessed cumulative landscape change caused by these very different management regimes. We modeled predominant temporal patterns of harvesting and segmented a large study area into groups of landscape units with similar harvest histories. Time series of landscape composition and configuration metrics averaged within groups revealed differences in landscape dynamics caused by differences in management history. In some groups (24% of landscape units), salvage caused rapid loss and subdivision of intact mature forest. Persistent landscape change was created by large salvage clearcuts (often averaging > 100 ha) and conversion of spruce-fir to deciduous and mixed forest. In groups that were little affected by salvage (56% of landscape units), contemporary partial harvesting caused loss and subdivision of intact mature forest at even greater rates. Patch shape complexity and edge density reached high levels even where cumulative harvest area was relatively low. Contemporary practices introduced more numerous and much smaller patches of stand-replacing disturbance (typically averaging <15 ha) and a correspondingly large amount of edge. Management regimes impacted different areas to

  18. Six-decade temporal change and seasonal decomposition of climate variables in Lake Dianchi watershed (China): stable trend or abrupt shift?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Jing; Liang, Zhongyao; Liu, Yong; Guo, Huaicheng; He, Dan; Zhao, Lei

    2015-01-01

    Meteorological trend analysis is a useful tool for understanding climate change and can provide useful information on the possibility of future change. Lake Dianchi is the sixth largest freshwater body in China with serious eutrophication. Algal blooms outbreak was proven to be closely associated with some climatic factors in Lake Dianchi. It is therefore essential to explore the trends of climatic time series to understand the mechanism of climate change on lake eutrophication. We proposed an integrated method of Mann-Kendall (MK) test, seasonal-trend decomposition using locally weighted regression (LOESS) (STL), and regime shift index (RSI) to decompose the trend analysis and identify the stable and abrupt changes of some climate variables from 1951 to 2009. The variables include mean air temperature (Tm), maximum air temperatures (Tmax), minimum air temperatures (Tmin), precipitation (Prec), average relative humidity (Hum), and average wind speed (Wind). The results showed that (a) annual Tm, Tmax, and Tmin have a significant increasing trend with the increasing rates of 0.26, 0.15and 0.43 °C per decade, respectively; (b) annual precipitation has an insignificant decreasing trend with the decreasing rate of 3.17 mm per decade; (c) annual Hum has a significant decreasing trend in all seasons; and (d) there are two turning points for temperature rise around 1980 and 1995 and two abrupt change periods for precipitation with the extreme points appearing in 1963 and 1976. Temperature rise and precipitation decline in summer and autumn as well as wind speed decrease after the 1990s may be an important reason for algal blooms outbreak in Lake Dianchi. This study was expected to provide foundation and reference for regional water resource management.

  19. Pregnancy Complications: Placental Abruption

    MedlinePlus

    ... page It's been added to your dashboard . The placenta attaches to the wall of the uterus (womb) ... abruption is a serious condition in which the placenta separates from the wall of the uterus before ...

  20. Robust Rapid Change-Point Detection in Multi-Sensor Data Fusion and Behavior Research

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-02-25

    Areas Commun., 23, 693–702. [2] Basseville, M. and Nikiforov, I. (1993). Detection of Abrupt Changes : Theory and Applications. Englewood Cliffs...Generalization of Kullback-Leibler’s Inequality and Its Ap - plications to Quantization Effects on Detection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 4.3...sensor network. IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory 53 4191–4209. [31] Veeravalli, V. V. (2001). Decentralized quickest change detection . IEEE Trans. Inform

  1. Abrupt climate change: Past, present and the search for precursors as an aid to predicting events in the future (Hans Oeschger Medal Lecture)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mayewski, Paul Andrew

    2016-04-01

    The demonstration using Greenland ice cores that abrupt shifts in climate, Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events, existed during the last glacial period has had a transformational impact on our understanding of climate change in the naturally forced world. The demonstration that D-O events are globally distributed and that they operated during previous glacial periods has led to extensive research into the relative hemispheric timing and causes of these events. The emergence of civilization during our current interglacial, the Holocene, has been attributed to the "relative climate quiescence" of this period relative to the massive, abrupt shifts in climate that characterized glacial periods in the form of D-O events. But, everything is relative and climate change is no exception. The demise of past civilizations, (eg., Mesopatamian, Mayan and Norse) is integrally tied to abrupt climate change (ACC) events operating at regional scales. Regionally to globally distributed ACC events have punctuated the Holocene and extreme events have always posed significant challenges to humans and ecosystems. Current warming of the Arctic, in terms of length of the summer season, is as abrupt and massive, albeit not as extensive, as the transition from the last major D-O event, the Younger Dryas into the Holocene (Mayewski et al., 2013). Tropospheric source greenhouse gas rise and ozone depletion in the stratosphere over Antarctica are triggers for the modern advent of human emission instigated ACCs. Arctic warming and Antarctic ozone depletion have resulted in significance changes to the atmospheric circulation systems that transport heat, moisture, and pollutants in both hemispheres. Climate models offer a critical tool for assessing trends, but they cannot as yet predict ACC events, as evidenced by the inability of these models to predict the rapid onset of Arctic warming and resulting changes in atmospheric circulation; and in the model vs past analog differences in projections for

  2. Change detection in satellite images

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thonnessen, U.; Hofele, G.; Middelmann, W.

    2005-05-01

    Change detection plays an important role in different military areas as strategic reconnaissance, verification of armament and disarmament control and damage assessment. It is the process of identifying differences in the state of an object or phenomenon by observing it at different times. The availability of spaceborne reconnaissance systems with high spatial resolution, multi spectral capabilities, and short revisit times offer new perspectives for change detection. Before performing any kind of change detection it is necessary to separate changes of interest from changes caused by differences in data acquisition parameters. In these cases it is necessary to perform a pre-processing to correct the data or to normalize it. Image registration and, corresponding to this task, the ortho-rectification of the image data is a further prerequisite for change detection. If feasible, a 1-to-1 geometric correspondence should be aspired for. Change detection on an iconic level with a succeeding interpretation of the changes by the observer is often proposed; nevertheless an automatic knowledge-based analysis delivering the interpretation of the changes on a semantic level should be the aim of the future. We present first results of change detection on a structural level concerning urban areas. After pre-processing, the images are segmented in areas of interest and structural analysis is applied to these regions to extract descriptions of urban infrastructure like buildings, roads and tanks of refineries. These descriptions are matched to detect changes and similarities.

  3. Abrupt warming of the Red Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raitsos, D. E.; Hoteit, I.; Prihartato, P. K.; Chronis, T.; Triantafyllou, G.; Abualnaja, Y.

    2011-07-01

    Coral reef ecosystems, often referred to as “marine rainforests,” concentrate the most diverse life in the oceans. Red Sea reef dwellers are adapted in a very warm environment, fact that makes them vulnerable to further and rapid warming. The detection and understanding of abrupt temperature changes is an important task, as ecosystems have more chances to adapt in a slowly rather than in a rapid changing environment. Using satellite derived sea surface and ground based air temperatures, it is shown that the Red Sea is going through an intense warming initiated in the mid-90s, with evidence for an abrupt increase after 1994 (0.7°C difference pre and post the shift). The air temperature is found to be a key parameter that influences the Red Sea marine temperature. The comparisons with Northern Hemisphere temperatures revealed that the observed warming is part of global climate change trends. The hitherto results also raise additional questions regarding other broader climatic impacts over the area.

  4. An atmospheric mechanism for ENSO amplitude changes under an abrupt quadrupling of CO2 concentration in CMIP5 models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rashid, Harun A.; Hirst, Anthony C.; Marsland, Simon J.

    2016-02-01

    We investigate the impact of a quadrupled CO2 concentration on the simulated El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) amplitudes in 19 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models. The amplitude of ENSO-related sea surface temperature (SST) variability decreases in 11 of these models, and increases in the rest, in response to the enhanced radiative forcing. These opposing amplitude changes are predominantly explained by opposite changes in the time-lagged SST response to a given central Pacific zonal wind stress (ZWS) forcing, with the net heat flux forcing and the SST-ZWS feedback playing smaller roles. We find a robust relationship between the changes in the ZWS forcing efficiency and those in the ZWS-deep convection coupling in the central-western Pacific, indicating an important role for this coupling in ENSO amplitude changes. Indeed, the projected change in this coupling is indicative of the projected change in ENSO-related SST variability.

  5. Abrupt ecological changes in the last 800 years inferred from a mountainous bog using testate amoebae traits and multi-proxy data.

    PubMed

    Kajukało, Katarzyna; Fiałkiewicz-Kozieł, Barbara; Gałka, Mariusz; Kołaczek, Piotr; Lamentowicz, Mariusz

    2016-09-01

    Mountainous peatlands of Western Sudetes are considered a unique habitat in Central Europe. The region contains one of the largest raised bog complexes in temperate Europe and is thus of great importance for biodiversity conservation. In this first high-resolution study from this region we use long-term ecological data to assess how these mountain wetland ecosystems responded to anthropogenic impacts and climate change. We used testate amoebae morphological traits, micro- and macroscopic charcoal, pollen and plant macrofossils to reconstruct the history of peatland development over 800 years, illustrating shifts in its development and fire dynamics. Five hydrological stages of peatland development were recognized. Testate amoebae morphological traits reflected several abrupt ecological changes linked to anthropogenic modifications of landscape openness. A shift towards mixotrophic taxa, linked to hydrological change or shrubs expansion and shading, preceded aperture position change, which was associated to dust input through surrounding deforestation and simultaneous water-table increase. Fire reconstruction revealed increasing burning together with intensifying human activity, including the expansion of a nearby settlement. This study confirms the potential of testate amoeba communities and the use of morpho-functional traits as indicators of ecological effects of land-use change over long-temporal scales.

  6. Abruption-associated prematurity

    PubMed Central

    Han, Christina S.; Schatz, Frederick; Lockwood, Charles J.

    2011-01-01

    SYNOPSIS Chronic, subacute decidual hemorrhage (i.e., abruptio placenta and retrochorionic hematoma formation) is an important contributor to preterm parturition. Such hemorrhage induces thrombin from decidual tissue factor, which play a pivotal role in the development of preterm premature rupture of membranes and preterm delivery by acting through protease-activated receptors to promote the production of pro-inflammatory cytokines, and matrix-degrading metalloproteinases. Severe, acute abruption can lead to maternal and fetal mortality. Current management of abruption is individualized based on severity of disease, underlying etiology, and gestational age. PMID:21890016

  7. Global Genome Response of Escherichia coli O157∶H7 Sakai during Dynamic Changes in Growth Kinetics Induced by an Abrupt Downshift in Water Activity

    PubMed Central

    Kocharunchitt, Chawalit; King, Thea; Gobius, Kari; Bowman, John P.; Ross, Tom

    2014-01-01

    The present study was undertaken to investigate growth kinetics and time-dependent change in global expression of Escherichia coli O157∶H7 Sakai upon an abrupt downshift in water activity (aw). Based on viable count data, shifting E. coli from aw 0.993 to aw 0.985 or less caused an apparent loss, then recovery, of culturability. Exponential growth then resumed at a rate characteristic for the aw imposed. To understand the responses of this pathogen to abrupt osmotic stress, we employed an integrated genomic and proteomic approach to characterize its cellular response during exposure to a rapid downshift but still within the growth range from aw 0.993 to aw 0.967. Of particular interest, genes and proteins with cell envelope-related functions were induced during the initial loss and subsequent recovery of culturability. This implies that cells undergo remodeling of their envelope composition, enabling them to adapt to osmotic stress. Growth at low aw, however, involved up-regulating additional genes and proteins, which are involved in the biosynthesis of specific amino acids, and carbohydrate catabolism and energy generation. This suggests their important role in facilitating growth under such stress. Finally, we highlighted the ability of E. coli to activate multiple stress responses by transiently inducing the RpoE and RpoH regulons to control protein misfolding, while simultaneously activating the master stress regulator RpoS to mediate long-term adaptation to hyperosmolality. This investigation extends our understanding of the potential mechanisms used by pathogenic E. coli to adapt, survive and grow under osmotic stress, which could potentially be exploited to aid the selection and/or development of novel strategies to inactivate this pathogen. PMID:24594867

  8. The abrupt climate change near 4,400 yr BP on the cultural transition in Yuchisi, China and its global linkage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Jianjun; Sun, Liguang; Chen, Liqi; Xu, Libin; Wang, Yuhong; Wang, Xinming

    2016-06-01

    Extreme climatic events have profound impacts on human society. Here we present the results of a study of organic biomarkers within a sedimentary section at the archaeological site of Yuchisi, eastern China, in order to reconstruct climatic variability during the Dawenkou (5,050–4,400 yr BP) and Longshan (4,400–4,000 yr BP) cultures. At ~4,400 yr BP, within the cultural transition horizon, abrupt changes in biomarkers, such as the fatty acid ratio C18:2/C18:0, 2C31/(C27 + C29), n-C18-ol and n-C30-ol, indicate the occurrence of local climate changes over the course of a few decades. These changes occurred during the transition from the Holocene warm period to a subsequent cold period which lasted for the following 600 years. This climatic shift has been recorded at numerous sites worldwide, and it is likely to have been the main cause of the widespread collapse of many isolated cultures at that time. The palaeoclimatic and archaeological data from the Yuchisi sediments may provide new insights into the relationship between climate change and prehistoric cultural transitions.

  9. The abrupt climate change near 4,400 yr BP on the cultural transition in Yuchisi, China and its global linkage

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Jianjun; Sun, Liguang; Chen, Liqi; Xu, Libin; Wang, Yuhong; Wang, Xinming

    2016-01-01

    Extreme climatic events have profound impacts on human society. Here we present the results of a study of organic biomarkers within a sedimentary section at the archaeological site of Yuchisi, eastern China, in order to reconstruct climatic variability during the Dawenkou (5,050–4,400 yr BP) and Longshan (4,400–4,000 yr BP) cultures. At ~4,400 yr BP, within the cultural transition horizon, abrupt changes in biomarkers, such as the fatty acid ratio C18:2/C18:0, 2C31/(C27 + C29), n-C18-ol and n-C30-ol, indicate the occurrence of local climate changes over the course of a few decades. These changes occurred during the transition from the Holocene warm period to a subsequent cold period which lasted for the following 600 years. This climatic shift has been recorded at numerous sites worldwide, and it is likely to have been the main cause of the widespread collapse of many isolated cultures at that time. The palaeoclimatic and archaeological data from the Yuchisi sediments may provide new insights into the relationship between climate change and prehistoric cultural transitions. PMID:27283832

  10. Effects of crude protein intake from grass silage-only diets on the equine colon ecosystem after an abrupt feed change.

    PubMed

    Muhonen, S; Connysson, M; Lindberg, J E; Julliand, V; Bertilsson, J; Jansson, A

    2008-12-01

    The objective of this study was to investigate the effect of CP intake from 2 grass silage-only diets, differing in CP concentration, fed at similar DMI on the equine colon ecosystem after an abrupt feed change between the diets. Four adult right ventral colon-fistulated geldings were fed one silage-only diet high in CP (HP, 873 g of CP/d) and one diet providing recommended intakes (RP, 615 g of CP/d). An adaptation period of 15 d on either the HP or the RP diet was followed by 2 experimental periods when the diets were fed for 22 d each in a crossover design. Colon samples were taken before and at 4, 12, and 24 h, and at 7, 14, and 22 d after the feed change. During the first 24 h after the abrupt feed change, the concentrations of total anaerobic bacteria and lactobacilli were greater on the HP than the RP diet (7.1 vs. 6.7 log(10) cfu/mL, P = 0.021, 6.0 vs. 5.5 log(10) cfu/mL, P = 0.021, respectively). During the first 24 h post feed change, VFA concentrations did not differ between the diets. From 7 to 22 d, total VFA concentrations were greater on the HP diet than on the RP diet (51.8 vs. 45.1 mmol/L, P = 0.034), and colon pH was lower on the HP diet than on the RP diet (6.9 vs. 7.2, P = 0.035). After an adaptation period of 22 d, N, ammonia, and urea concentrations and osmolality of the colon fluid did not differ between diets. Fecal pH and colon and fecal DM were unchanged throughout the experiment. The results suggest that, in horses fed at the maintenance level of energy intake, a feed change between silages with different CP content may alter the colon bacterial counts within the first 24 h. Moreover, during the subsequent 3 wk, pH decreased slightly and VFA concentrations increased, but no other major alterations occurred in the composition and activities of the colon ecosystem or fecal DM.

  11. Abrupt changes in forage dry matter of one to three days affect intake and milk yield in lactating dairy cows

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Our objective was to determine the effects of one-, two-, and three-day changes in forage dry matter (DM) on lactating cow performance and yield regardless of stage of lactation or parity. Data was compiled from two independent studies to predict overall cow performance. Study A (fall 2009) early la...

  12. Major transcriptome re-organisation and abrupt changes in signalling, cell cycle and chromatin regulation at neural differentiation in vivo.

    PubMed

    Olivera-Martinez, Isabel; Schurch, Nick; Li, Roman A; Song, Junfang; Halley, Pamela A; Das, Raman M; Burt, Dave W; Barton, Geoffrey J; Storey, Kate G

    2014-08-01

    Here, we exploit the spatial separation of temporal events of neural differentiation in the elongating chick body axis to provide the first analysis of transcriptome change in progressively more differentiated neural cell populations in vivo. Microarray data, validated against direct RNA sequencing, identified: (1) a gene cohort characteristic of the multi-potent stem zone epiblast, which contains neuro-mesodermal progenitors that progressively generate the spinal cord; (2) a major transcriptome re-organisation as cells then adopt a neural fate; and (3) increasing diversity as neural patterning and neuron production begin. Focussing on the transition from multi-potent to neural state cells, we capture changes in major signalling pathways, uncover novel Wnt and Notch signalling dynamics, and implicate new pathways (mevalonate pathway/steroid biogenesis and TGFβ). This analysis further predicts changes in cellular processes, cell cycle, RNA-processing and protein turnover as cells acquire neural fate. We show that these changes are conserved across species and provide biological evidence for reduced proteasome efficiency and a novel lengthening of S phase. This latter step may provide time for epigenetic events to mediate large-scale transcriptome re-organisation; consistent with this, we uncover simultaneous downregulation of major chromatin modifiers as the neural programme is established. We further demonstrate that transcription of one such gene, HDAC1, is dependent on FGF signalling, making a novel link between signals that control neural differentiation and transcription of a core regulator of chromatin organisation. Our work implicates new signalling pathways and dynamics, cellular processes and epigenetic modifiers in neural differentiation in vivo, identifying multiple new potential cellular and molecular mechanisms that direct differentiation.

  13. The fluvial system response to abrupt climate change during the last cold stage: the Upper Pleistocene River Thames fluvial succession at Ashton Keynes, UK

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lewis, S. G.; Maddy, D.; Scaife, R. G.

    2001-02-01

    The last interglacial-glacial cycle (125-10 ka BP) is characterised by numerous rapid shifts in global climate on sub-Milankovitch timescales, recorded in the ocean and ice core records. These climatic fluctuations are clearly recorded in those European terrestrial sedimentary sequences that span this time period without interruption. In the UK, only fragmentary Upper Pleistocene sequences exist, mainly within the fluvial archive of the major river systems such as the Thames. The response of the upper River Thames to abrupt fluctuations in climate is documented in the fluvial sediments beneath the Floodplain Terrace (Northmoor Member of the Upper Thames Formation) at Ashton Keynes, Wiltshire. A number of criteria are set out by which significant changes in the fluvial system may be established from the sedimentological, palaeoecological and geochronological information contained within the succession. The sedimentary succession is divisible into four facies associations, on the basis of their sedimentology and bounding surface characteristics. These represent distinct phases of fluvial activity at the site and allow changes in fluvial style to be inferred. Palaeoecological reconstructions from pollen analysis of peats within the sequence provides an indication of the nature and direction of Late Glacial environmental change and optically stimulated luminescence and radiocarbon dating methods provide chronological control on the sequence. These data suggest that major changes in fluvial style are recorded within the succession, which can be related to the climatic fluctuations that took place on the oxygen isotope stage 5a/4 transition (approximately 70 ka BP) and the Devensian Late Glacial climatic warm-cold-warm oscillation (13-11 ka BP). The changes in fluvial style are a result of variations in sediment supply to the river resulting from changes in slope stability, vegetation cover and cold-climate mass movement processes and variations in discharge regime

  14. Hydrology, Ecology and Pastoralism in the Sahel: Abrupt Changes in Surface Water Dynamics in a Coupled Natural-Human System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hanan, N. P.; Prihodko, L.

    2008-12-01

    The Sahelian region of Africa is situated to the south of the Sahara desert, stretching from Senegal in the West to Sudan in the East. It is an area with semi-arid climate (300-600 mm mean annual precipitation) and long, severe, dry seasons (8-9 months without rain). Sahelian vegetation consists of extensive annual grasslands, with low tree and shrub density (generally < 5% canopy cover). Though rainfall limits the productivity of Sahelian vegetation, this self-same water limitation means that nutrients are relatively available and the nutrient value and digestibility of Sahelian vegetation is much higher than in the adjacent (wetter) savannas to the south. For this reason, the Sahel is a prized grazing resource. However, because domestic animals (cattle, sheep, goats) require regular access to drinking water, most areas of the Sahel are only accessible for grazing during the short rainy season while ephemeral surface pools persist. We will describe observations on one such ephemeral pool in northern Mali which underwent an unexpected transition from ephemeral to perennial during the years of average rainfall (1988-1992) following the severe Sahelian drought of 1985-86. As a result of this transformation a small village has established beside the lake and 5-10 thousand cattle now routinely remain in the watershed throughout the dry season. In this paper the dynamics that may have caused the shift from stable ephemeral lake to stable perennial lake, with no long-term increase in rainfall, will be explored. We will examine hypotheses for the change and how it may have arisen through interactions between hydrology, ecology, climate, humans, their livestock, and land use patterns in the lake catchment. It is likely that biological and physical thresholds were exceeded during the drought to trigger a temporary state change in the lake from ephemeral to perennial, which then triggered a socio-economic reorganization. We hypothesize that the resulting change in land use

  15. Abrupt Changes in the Marmara Pelagic Ecosystem during the recent jellyfish Liriope tetraphylla invasion and mucilage events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Erkan Kideys, Ahmet; Yüksek, Ahsen; Sur, Halil Ibrahim

    2013-04-01

    In this study, meteorological and hydrographical conditions as well as chemical and biological parameters have been examined for the period 2005-2009 to determine the impact and cause of the massive mucilage phenomenon observed in the Sea of Marmara in October 2007. Results showed that there is a decrease pattern in chl concentration as well as both phytoplankton and zooplankton abundances from August till October in 2007 whilst the jellyfish Liriope tetraphylla had bloom levels. This period coincided with the maximum intensity of pelagic fishing throughout the years. Nitrogen/phosphate ratio increased prior to the mucilage formation. Invasive Liriope tetraphylla abundance increased exponentially in August and died in masses as a result of starvation and meteorological / oceanographic conditions. In October, following the mucilage matter production another new species for the region Gonyaulax fragilis was observed in high abundance through the basin. It is worthy to note that during basin wide samplings conducted in the Sea of Marmara in both 2005 and 2006, high abundances of Liriope tetraphylla have been detected particularly at the northern parts where no mucilage event was observed. We suggest that overfishing in the Sea of Marmara provided a ground for the establishment of the invasive jellyfish and accompanying mucilage event was due to by synergic combinations of several factors.

  16. Lateglacial/early Holocene fluvial reactions of the Jeetzel river (Elbe valley, northern Germany) to abrupt climatic and environmental changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turner, Falko; Tolksdorf, Johann Friedrich; Viehberg, Finn; Schwalb, Antje; Kaiser, Knut; Bittmann, Felix; von Bramann, Ullrich; Pott, Richard; Staesche, Ulrich; Breest, Klaus; Veil, Stephan

    2013-01-01

    Mechanisms of climatic control on river system development are still only partially known. Palaeohydrological investigations from river valleys often lack a precise chronological control of climatic processes and fluvial dynamics, which is why their specific forces remain unclear. In this multidisciplinary case study from the middle Elbe river valley (northern Germany) multiple dating of sites (palynostratigraphy, radiocarbon- and OSL-dating) and high-resolution analyses of environmental and climatological proxies (pollen, plant macro-remains and ostracods) reveal a continuous record of the environmental and fluvial history from the Lateglacial to the early Holocene. Biostratigraphical correlation to northwest European key sites shows that river system development was partially out of phase with the main climatic shifts. The transition from a braided to an incised channel system predated the main phase of Lateglacial warming (˜14.6 ka BP), and the meandering river did not change its drainage pattern during the cooling of the Younger-Dryas period. Environmental reconstructions suggest that river dynamics were largely affected by vegetation cover, as a vegetation cover consisting of herbs, dwarf-shrubs and a few larger shrubs seems to have developed before the onset of the main Lateglacial warming, and pine forests appear to have persisted in the river valley during the Younger Dryas. In addition, two phases of high fluvial activity and new channel incision during the middle part of the Younger Dryas and during the Boreal were correlated with changes from dry towards wet climatic conditions, as indicated by evident lake level rises. Lateglacial human occupation in the river valley, which is shown by numerous Palaeolithic sites, forming one of the largest settlement areas of that period known in the European Plain, is assigned to the specific fluvial and environmental conditions of the early Allerød.

  17. Mutual Comparative Filtering for Change Detection in Videos with Unstable Illumination Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sidyakin, Sergey V.; Vishnyakov, Boris V.; Vizilter, Yuri V.; Roslov, Nikolay I.

    2016-06-01

    In this paper we propose a new approach for change detection and moving objects detection in videos with unstable, abrupt illumination changes. This approach is based on mutual comparative filters and background normalization. We give the definitions of mutual comparative filters and outline their strong advantage for change detection purposes. Presented approach allows us to deal with changing illumination conditions in a simple and efficient way and does not have drawbacks, which exist in models that assume different color transformation laws. The proposed procedure can be used to improve a number of background modelling methods, which are not specifically designed to work under illumination changes.

  18. Abrupt plant physiological changes in southern New Zealand at the termination of the Mi-1 event reflect shifts in hydroclimate and pCO2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reichgelt, Tammo; D'Andrea, William J.; Fox, Bethany R. S.

    2016-12-01

    A rise in atmospheric CO2 is believed to be necessary for the termination of large-scale glaciations. Although the Antarctic Ice Sheet is estimated to have melted from ∼125% to ∼50% its modern size, there is thus far no evidence for an increase in atmospheric CO2 associated with the Mi-1 glacial termination in the earliest Miocene. Here, we present evidence from a high-resolution terrestrial record of leaf physiological change in southern New Zealand for an abrupt increase in atmospheric CO2 coincident with the termination of the Mi-1 glaciation and lasting approximately 20 kyr. Quantitative pCO2 estimates, made using a leaf gas exchange model, suggest that atmospheric CO2 levels may have doubled during this period, from 516 ± 111ppm to 1144 ± 410ppm, and subsequently returned back to 425 ± 53ppm. The 20-kyr interval with high pCO2 estimates is also associated with a period of increased moisture supply to southern New Zealand, inferred from carbon and hydrogen isotopes of terrestrial leaf waxes. The results provide the first high-resolution record of terrestrial environmental change at the Oligocene/Miocene boundary, document a ∼20 kyr interval of elevated pCO2 and increased local moisture availability, and provide insight into ecosystem response to a major orbitally driven climatic transition.

  19. Continental weathering in the Early Triassic in Himalayan Tethys, central Nepal: Implications for abrupt environmental change on the northern margin of Gondwanaland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoshida, Kohki; Kawamura, Toshio; Suzuki, Shigeyuki; Regmi, Amar Deep; Gyawali, Babu Ram; Shiga, Yuka; Adachi, Yoshiko; Dhital, Megh Raj

    2014-01-01

    The geochemistry of Triassic mudstones in the Himalayan Tethys sequence, central Nepal, was studied with respect to changes in sedimentary facies, grain size, and source rocks. The Triassic sedimentary facies of mudstone and carbonates show deposition in offshore to hemiplegic environments. The rare earth element (REE) pattern of the Permian and Triassic mudstones suggests uniformity correlatable to average shale. The major element geochemistry of the Early Triassic Griesbachian-early Smithian mudstones indicates a sediment supply from strongly weathered sources with the chemical index of alteration (CIA) values of 76-81. However, the mudstones in the late Smithian show weakly weathered sources with CIA values of 68-74. The lower part of the Middle Triassic Anisian mudstones return to Early Triassic paleoweathering levels. There are no significant relationships among lithofacies, the grain size of the sediments, and CIA values. Thus, the abrupt change of the degree of paleoweathering in the Early Triassic, late Smithian time, suggests a dramatic decrease in continental weathering, which is related to a predominantly arid climate in the northern marginal area of Gondwana.

  20. Short-term adaptation of the ruminal epithelium involves abrupt changes in sodium and short-chain fatty acid transport.

    PubMed

    Schurmann, Brittney L; Walpole, Matthew E; Górka, Pawel; Ching, John C H; Loewen, Matthew E; Penner, Gregory B

    2014-10-01

    The objectives of this study were to determine the effect of an increase in diet fermentability on 1) the rate and extent to which short-chain fatty acid (SCFA) absorption pathways adapt relative to changes in Na(+) transport, 2) the epithelial surface area (SA), and 3) the barrier function of the bovine ruminal epithelium. Twenty-five Holstein steer calves were assigned to either the control diet (CON; 91.5% hay and 8.5% supplement) or a moderately fermentable diet (50% hay; 41.5% barley grain (G), and 8.5% supplement) fed for 3 (G3), 7 (G7), 14 (G14), or 21 days (G21). All calves were fed at 2.25% body weight at 0800. Calves were killed (at 1000), and ruminal tissue was collected to determine the rate and pathway of SCFA transport, Na(+) transport and barrier function in Ussing chambers. Tissue was also collected for SA measurement and gene expression. Mean reticular pH decreased from 6.90 for CON to 6.59 for G7 and then increased (quadratic P < 0.001). While effective SA of the ruminal epithelium was not affected (P > 0.10) by dietary treatment, the net Na(+) flux increased by 125% within 7 days (quadratic P = 0.016). Total acetate and butyrate flux increased from CON to G21, where passive diffusion was the primary SCFA absorption pathway affected. Increased mannitol flux, tissue conductance, and tendencies for increased expression of IL-1β and TLR2 indicated reduced rumen epithelium barrier function. This study indicates that an increase in diet fermentability acutely increases Na(+) and SCFA absorption in the absence of increased SA, but reduces barrier function.

  1. Monitoring channel head erosion processes in response to an artificially induced abrupt base level change using time-lapse photography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nichols, M. H.; Nearing, M.; Hernandez, M.; Polyakov, V. O.

    2016-07-01

    Gullies that terminate at a vertical-wall are ubiquitous throughout arid and semiarid regions. Multi-year assessments of gully evolution and headcut advance are typically accomplished using traditional ground surveys and aerial photographs, with much recent research focused on integrating data collected at very high spatial resolutions using new techniques such as aerial surveys with blimps or kites and ground surveys with LiDar scanners. However, knowledge of specific processes that drive headcut advance is limited due to inadequate observation and documentation of flash floods and subsequent erosion that can occur at temporal resolutions not captured through repeat surveys. This paper presents a method for using very-high temporal resolution ground-based time-lapse photography to capture short-duration flash floods and gully head evolution in response. In 2004, a base level controlling concrete weir was removed from the outlet of a 1.29 ha semiarid headwater drainage on the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed in southeastern Arizona, USA. During the ten year period from 2004 to 2014 the headcut migrated upchannel a total of 14.5 m reducing the contributing area at the headwall by 9.5%. Beginning in July 2012, time-lapse photography was employed to observe event scale channel evolution dynamics. The most frequent erosion processes observed during three seasons of time-lapse photography were plunge pool erosion and mass wasting through sidewall or channel headwall slumping that occurred during summer months. Geomorphic change during the ten year period was dominated by a single piping event in August 2014 that advanced the channel head 7.4 m (51% of the overall advance) and removed 11.3 m3 of sediment. High temporal resolution time-lapse photography was critical for identifying subsurface erosion processes, in the absence of time-lapse images piping would not have been identified as an erosion mechanism responsible for advancing the gully headwall at this site.

  2. Plastic flow of mild steel (En8) at different strain-rates under abruptly-changing deformation paths

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meguid, S. A.

    1981-12-01

    STRAIN-GAUGED thin-walled tubular specimens of annealed medium carbon steel (En8) were tested at room temperature in combined twisting and extension using a closed-loop, servo-controlled, electro-hydraulic biaxial testing machine. Bilinear deformation paths of twisting at a constant rate followed by extension at three different rates were investigated. Precise measurements of the resulting torque and load, together with the controlled deformation parameters, were recorded as functions of time. This study extends earlier work ( MEGUID, MALVERN and CAMPBELL, 1979, J. Engng Mater. Technol.101, 248) in which a notable feature of this particular type of bilinear testing was reported: namely, that it was possible to obtain almost the entire positive quadrant of the initial yield locus from a single run without unloading or reloading (neutral loading). Here, particular attention has been given to the effect of the axial strain-rate on the shape of these "initial" yield loci. Attention has also been given to the effect of the sudden change of direction in the deformation path upon the deviatoric stress and the plastic strain-rate vectors. The results indicate that there exist appreciable differences between the Mises equivalent stress and equivalent plastic strain curves (up to strains of order 2%) for the three axial strain-rates investigated. These differences are attributed to the rate-sensitivity of the material. The results also show a much slower alignment of the deviatoric stress vector direction to the direction of the plastic strain-rate vector than had been expected. Comparisons with two theoretical analyses of a bilinear deformation path of quasistatic twisting followed by extension at a constant strain-rate are made, one using PERZYNA'S (1966) viscoplastic constitutive law for rate-sensitive (but non-strainhardening) material and the other using a rate-independent theory. Refinements in the test procedures now reveal that significant differences exist between

  3. Climate and Antartic Intermediate Water Covariations on Centennial-Millennial Timescales during MIS 3—Constraining the Role of the "Oceanic Tunnel" in Abrupt Climate Change.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kleiven, H. F.; Ninnemann, U.

    2014-12-01

    The equatorward ventilation of Southern Hemisphere extratropical water masses to the low latitude thermocline has been proposed as a window through which the high latitude ocean can modulate tropical climate on anything from decadal to orbital timescales. This hypothesis is founded largely on the observation that tropical thermocline waters originate mostly in the Southern Hemisphere and that computer simulations suggest property anomalies in these source regions can advect through the intermediate ocean, "the ocean tunnel" to influence tropical SST. However, few observational records of extratropical ocean changes are available to assess their impacts on multi-decadal and longer timescales. Here we add to the observational record using new decadally resolved planktonic and benthic foraminiferal isotopic records spanning MIS 3 (20-50 ka) from the Chilean slope ODP Site 1233 that is located on the northern margin of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and its seafloor lies in the core of Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW). Thus the site is ideally situated to reconstruct both near surface and AAIW variability in the high southern latitudes. On centennial to millennial timescales, changes in intermediate water properties track those in the near surface albeit with a reduced amplitude—confirming the idea that changes in the extratropical ocean effect the oceanic tunnel on these timescales. The new benthic and plantic foraminiferal isotope results demonstrate that variations in intermediate ocean properties and climate of the southeast Pacific closely align with those recorded in the EPICA ice core from Dronning Maud Land. Such abrupt, synoptic scale changes in Antarctic climate and dynamics will have potentially widespread climatic and biogeochemical consequences along the downstream flowpath of AAIW. The broad coherence of the observed Antarctic signal supports the concept of hemispheric thermal asynchrony on millennial timescales, and the extension of this climate

  4. Archaeological Evidence for Abrupt Cimate Change: Results from Satellite Imagery Analysis and Subsequent Ground-Truthing in the El-Manzalah Region, Northeast Egyptian Delta

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parcak, S. H.

    2003-12-01

    The abrupt global climate changes recorded at 8.2, 5.2 and 4.2 ka BP caused a wide range of transformations within ancient societies, including the focus of this study: ancient Egypt . In the case of the climatic changes that occurred at 4.2 ka BP, scholars have debated hotly the events surrounding the "collapse" of the Old Kingdom. Despite such studies into the Old Kingdom's "collapse", there have been insufficient regional settlement pattern studies in Egypt to augment hypotheses concerning the mechanisms behind the cultural transformations that occurred at the end of the Old Kingdom. Utilizing a combination of satellite imagery analysis and subsequent ground-truthing techniques over a broad region in the East Delta, this study aims to reconstruct pharaonic settlement distributions in relation to the changing northeast delta topography, river courses, marshlands, and coastline. Although geo-political and religious factors played varying roles in settlement patterns, this study overlies the economic and environmental components behind the settlement of individual sites and areas. For instance, prior to the formation of the Manzala lagoon, beginning in the 4th century AD, the Mendesian branch of the Nile flowed past Mendes and its satellite, maritime port at Tell Tebilla: As early as the Old Kingdom, Tell Tebilla provided an ideal location for the formation of a town, being well-located to exploit both riverine and maritime transportation routes through trade, and regional floral and faunal resources from hunting, fishing, cultivation and animal husbandry. Key factors such as long-term fluctuations in precipitation, flood levels, and river courses, can affect dramatically the fortunes of individual settlements, areas, and regions, resulting in the decline and abandonment of some sites and the foundation and flourishing of other sites, especially within marginal regions. The Egyptian delta represents an ideal region for studying the impacts of climatic changes

  5. Late second-early first millennium BC abrupt climate changes in coastal Syria and their possible significance for the history of the Eastern Mediterranean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaniewski, D.; Paulissen, E.; Van Campo, E.; Weiss, H.; Otto, T.; Bretschneider, J.; Van Lerberghe, K.

    2010-09-01

    The alluvial deposits near Gibala-Tell Tweini provide a unique record of environmental history and food availability estimates covering the Late Bronze Age and the Early Iron Age. The refined pollen-derived climatic proxy suggests that drier climatic conditions occurred in the Mediterranean belt of Syria from the late 13th/early 12th centuries BC to the 9th century BC. This period corresponds with the time frame of the Late Bronze Age collapse and the subsequent Dark Age. The abrupt climate change at the end of the Late Bronze Age caused region-wide crop failures, leading towards socio-economic crises and unsustainability, forcing regional habitat-tracking. Archaeological data show that the first conflagration of Gibala occurred simultaneously with the destruction of the capital city Ugarit currently dated between 1194 and 1175 BC. Gibala redeveloped shortly after this destruction, with large-scale urbanization visible in two main architectural phases during the Early Iron Age I. The later Iron Age I city was destroyed during a second conflagration, which is radiocarbon-dated at circa 2950 cal yr BP. The data from Gibala-Tell Tweini provide evidence in support of the drought hypothesis as a triggering factor behind the Late Bronze Age collapse in the Eastern Mediterranean.

  6. Comment on ``Abrupt environmental change in Canada's northernmost lake inferred from fossil diatom and pigment stratigraphy'' by Dermot Antoniades et al.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gajewski, K.

    2008-04-01

    Antoniades et al. [2007; hereinafter referred to as A07] present an analysis of a 19-cm lake sediment core from Ward Hunt Island from northern Canada. They conclude that a significant and abrupt change in the aquatic communities occurred in this lake during the past 2 centuries that was unusual with respect to the previous 8ka. In the paper, and especially in quotes to the press (e.g., http://www.cbc.ca; http://www.sciencedaily.com; http://scitizen.com) the authors conclude that their results, along with those from Smol et al. [2005] provide evidence for amplification of climates with latitude due to human caused global warming, an event unique in the past 8 ka. However, there are a number of problems in these data and flaws in the author's interpretations that render their results questionable. Their conclusions do not hold up to scrutiny as they do not concord with other information we have about climate variability in the Arctic. I have four major comments on the data, and several on the interpretation.

  7. A stopping theoretic approach to minimal time detection of system parameter change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mazumdar, Ravi R.

    1986-01-01

    The problem of minimal time detection of abrupt parameter changes in linear stochastic systems considered. The problem is posed as an optimal stopping problem for the detection in change of the induced probability measure. Under the assumption of a prior distribution for the time of change (or disruption) a stopping rule is given which minimizes the average detection delay when there is knowledge of the new measure after the change. When the new induced measure is unknown, a stopping rule is given, based only on the noisy observations and is shown to be better than the a priori knowlege of the disruption time.

  8. The abrupt climate change at the Eocene–Oligocene boundary and the emergence of South-East Asia triggered the spread of sapindaceous lineages

    PubMed Central

    Buerki, Sven; Forest, Félix; Stadler, Tanja; Alvarez, Nadir

    2013-01-01

    Background and Aims Paleoclimatic data indicate that an abrupt climate change occurred at the Eocene–Oligocene (E–O) boundary affecting the distribution of tropical forests on Earth. The same period has seen the emergence of South-East (SE) Asia, caused by the collision of the Eurasian and Australian plates. How the combination of these climatic and geomorphological factors affected the spatio-temporal history of angiosperms is little known. This topic is investigated by using the worldwide sapindaceous clade as a case study. Methods Analyses of divergence time inference, diversification and biogeography (constrained by paleogeography) are applied to a combined plastid and nuclear DNA sequence data set. Biogeographical and diversification analyses are performed over a set of trees to take phylogenetic and dating uncertainty into account. Results are analysed in the context of past climatic fluctuations. Key Results An increase in the number of dispersal events at the E–O boundary is recorded, which intensified during the Miocene. This pattern is associated with a higher rate in the emergence of new genera. These results are discussed in light of the geomorphological importance of SE Asia, which acted as a tropical bridge allowing multiple contacts between areas and additional speciation across landmasses derived from Laurasia and Gondwana. Conclusions This study demonstrates the importance of the combined effect of geomorphological (the emergence of most islands in SE Asia approx. 30 million years ago) and climatic (the dramatic E–O climate change that shifted the tropical belt and reduced sea levels) factors in shaping species distribution within the sapindaceous clade. PMID:23723259

  9. Early Jurassic paleopoles from the Hartford continental rift basin (eastern North America): Was an abrupt change in polar wander associated with the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kent, D. V.; Olsen, P. E.

    2007-12-01

    The recent recognition of what may be the largest igneous province on Earth, the ~200 Ma Central Atlantic magmatic province (CAMP), with its close temporal proximity to major biotic turnover at the Triassic/Jurassic boundary, adds impetus for seeking confirmation of possibly related geodynamic phenomena. For example, CAMP emplacement seems to coincide temporally with an abrupt change in North American apparent polar wander at the so-called J1 cusp, which has been suggested to reflect a major plate reorganization or an episode of true polar wander. However, early Jurassic paleopoles from the Moenave and Wingate Formations from the Colorado Plateau that virtually define the J1 cusp have few reliable counterparts from elsewhere in North America. The thick section of cyclical Lower Jurassic continental sediments with interbedded CAMP lava flows in the Hartford basin of Connecticut and Massachusetts provides an opportunity to test the reality of the J1 cusp. We collected about 400 oriented samples distributed over 80 outcrop sites that represent a ~2500 meter-thick composite section of the Shuttle Meadow and East Berlin sedimentary formations, which are interbedded with CAMP lava units, and the lower Portland Formation, which consists of cyclical lacustrine to fluvial sediments of Early Jurassic age that conformably overlie the CAMP extrusive zone in the Hartford basin. Normal and reverse polarity ChRM directions define a coherent magnetostratigraphy and are supported by a reversal test and a positive fold test. The distribution of ChRM direction from the sediments is flattened and the mean is significantly shallower than from the coeval CAMP lavas. E/I analysis of the Hartford sedimentary ChRM data produces a result consistent with the geomagnetic field model at a mean flattening factor of 0.54; the corrected mean direction is steeper and not significantly different from the mean inclination of the Newark and Hartford CAMP volcanic units.

  10. SAR Object Change Detection Study.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1980-03-01

    based techniques when applied to Synthetic Aperature Radar (SAR imagery. DOUGLA 3. PRASKA, 2LT, USAF Project Engineer viii Section 1 INTRODUCTION AND...to assess the applicability of three region-based change-detection methods to synthetic aperture radar imagery. I/ Ac .0ion For K:CTAB [ ft i . i...Section 2, the algorithms developed were applied to synthetic -aperture radar image data furnished by RADC. Some preprocessing of all images was required

  11. Detecting Land Cover Change by Trend and Seasonality of Remote Sensing Time Series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oliveira, J. C.; Epiphanio, J. N.; Mello, M. P.

    2013-05-01

    Natural resource managers demand knowledge of information on the spatiotemporal dynamics of land use and land cover change, and detection and characteristics change over time is an initial step for the understanding of the mechanism of change. The propose of this research is the use the approach BFAST (Breaks For Additive Seasonal and Trend) for detects trend and seasonal changes within Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series. BFAST integrates the decomposition of time series into trend, seasonal, and noise components with methods for detecting change within time series without the need to select a reference period, set a threshold, or define a change trajectory. BFAST iteratively estimates the time and number of changes, and characterizes change by its magnitude and direction. The general model is of the form Yt = Tt + St + et (t= 1,2,3,…, n) where Yt is the observed data at time t, Tt is the trend component, St is the seasonal component, and et is the remainder component. In this study was used MODIS NDVI time series datasets (MOD13Q1) over 11 years (2000 - 2010) on an intensive agricultural area in Mato Grosso - Brazil. At first it was applied a filter for noise reduction (4253H twice) over spectral curve of each MODIS pixel, and subsequently each time series was decomposed into seasonal, trend, and remainder components by BFAST. Were detected one abrupt change from a single pixel of forest and two abrupt changes on trend component to a pixel of the agricultural area. Figure 1 shows the number of phonological change with base in seasonal component for study area. This paper demonstrated the ability of the BFAST to detect long-term phenological change by analyzing time series while accounting for abrupt and gradual changes. The algorithm iteratively estimates the dates and number of changes occurring within seasonal and trend components, and characterizes changes by extracting the magnitude and direction of change. Changes occurring in the

  12. Millennial scale precipitation changes over Easter Island (Southern Pacific) during MIS 3: Inter-hemispheric connections during North Atlantic abrupt cold events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Margalef, Olga; Cacho, Isabel; Pla-Rabes, Sergi; Cañellas-Boltà, Núria; Pueyo, Juan Jose; Sáez, Alberto; Valero-Garcés, Blas L.; Giralt, Santiago

    2013-04-01

    Hemisphere have been abrupt in response to the MIS 3 climate variability, a pattern which is in contrast to the typical gradual changes shown by several southern hemisphere records. This points to a very rapid atmospheric reorganization at low and medium latitudes in front to a more progressive oceanic heat redistribution lead by the bipolar seesaw.

  13. A massive input of coarse-grained siliciclastics in the Pyrenean Basin during the PETM: the missing ingredient in a coeval abrupt change in hydrological regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pujalte, V.; Baceta, J. I.; Schmitz, B.

    2015-12-01

    The Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) is represented in numerous shallow and deep marine sections of the south-central and western Pyrenees by a 2-4 m thick unit (locally up to 20 m) of clays or marly clays intercalated within a carbonate-dominated succession. This unit records a massive input into the Pyrenean Gulf of fine-grained terrestrial siliciclastics, attributed to an abrupt hydrological change during the PETM. However, the nature of such a change remains controversial. Here we show that, in addition to fine-grained deposits, large volumes of coarse-grained siliciclastics were brought into the basin and were mostly accumulated in incised valleys and in a long-lived deep-sea channel. The occurrence of these coarse-grained deposits has been known for some time, but their correlation with the PETM is reported here for the first time. The bulk of the incised valley deposits in the PETM interval are cross-bedded sands and pebbly sands, almost exclusively made of quartz. The criteria for indicting a relation to the PETM include their stratigraphic position between upper Thanetian and lower Ilerdian marine carbonates, organic carbon isotope data, and a high percentage of kaolinite in the clay matrix. The axially flowing deep-sea channel existed throughout Paleocene times in the Pyrenean Basin, within which coarse-grained calciclastic and siliciclastic turbidites were accumulated. This Paleocene succession is capped by thickly bedded quartz sandstones and pebbly sandstones, probably deposited by hyperpycnal flows, which are here assigned to the PETM based on their stratigraphic position and organic carbon isotopic data. The large and simultaneous increase in coarse- and fine-grained terrestrial siliciclastics delivered to the Pyrenean Gulf during the PETM is attributed to an increased intra-annual humidity gradient. During the PETM a longer and drier summer season facilitated the erosion of landscapes, whereas a dramatic enhancement of precipitation extremes

  14. A massive input of coarse-grained siliciclastics in the Pyrenean Basin during the PETM: the missing ingredient of a coeval abrupt change in hydrological regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pujalte, V.; Baceta, J. I.; Schmitz, B.

    2015-07-01

    The Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) is represented in numerous shallow and deep marine sections of the south-central and western Pyrenees by a 2-4 m thick unit (locally ca. 20 m) of clays or marly clays intercalated within a carbonate-dominated succession. The massive input of fine-grained terrestrial siliciclastics into the Pyrenean Gulf recorded by that unit has been attributed to an abrupt hydrological change during the PETM. However, the nature of such change remains controversial. Here we show that, in addition to fine-grained deposits, large volumes of coarse-grained siliciclastics were brought into the basin that were mostly accumulated in incised valleys and a long-lived deep-sea channel, both spatially restricted settings. The occurrence of these coarse-grained deposits had been known for some time, but their correlation with the PETM is reported here for the first time. The bulk of incised valley PETM deposits are cross-bedded sands and pebbly sands, almost exclusively made of quartz, currently being actively quarried. Proof of their belonging to the PETM include: (1) their stratigraphic position, sandwiched between upper Thanetian and lower Ilerdian marine carbonates, (2) organic carbon isotope data, and (3) the fact that clay minerals from the sand matrix are more than 80 % kaolinite. The axially-flowing deep-sea channel existed throughout Paleocene times in the Pyrenean Basin, within which coarse-grained calciclastic turbidites, and lesser volumes of siliciclastic turbidites, were accumulated. This Paleocene succession is capped by thick-bedded turbiditic quartz sandstones and pebbly sandstones, here assigned to the PETM based on calcareous nannoplankton, clay mineral and organic carbon isotopic data. The large and simultaneous increase in coarse- and fine-grained terrestrial siliciclastic material delivered to the Pyrenean Gulf is related to an increased intra-annual humidity gradient. During the PETM longer and drier summer seasons

  15. On Radar Resolution in Coherent Change Detection.

    SciTech Connect

    Bickel, Douglas L.

    2015-11-01

    It is commonly observed that resolution plays a role in coherent change detection. Although this is the case, the relationship of the resolution in coherent change detection is not yet defined . In this document, we present an analytical method of evaluating this relationship using detection theory. Specifically we examine the effect of resolution on receiver operating characteristic curves for coherent change detection.

  16. Multiple abrupt climate changes in the western hemisphere during the past 50,000 years, and their implications concerning the response of vegetation to changing atmospheric chemistry

    SciTech Connect

    Jacobson, G.L. Jr.; Grimm, E.C.

    1995-06-01

    Independent evidence spanning the last 50,000 years from ice cores, ocean sediments, and detailed glacial-geologic investigations implies multiple. large warm/cool oscillations with a frequency of ca. 3000 years through much of the Western Hemisphere. Paleoecological studies at sites in North America and the west coast of South America reveal major, synchronous changes in vegetation corresponding to many of these high-frequency changes in climate. Sequences on both sides of the equator culminate in substantial warming at 14 ka BP and a brief cooling at ca. 11 ka BP just prior to the final onset of Holocene warming. The high-frequency climate oscillations are not explained by {open_quotes}Milankovitch{close_quotes} cycles in solar insolation or by changes in thermohaline ocean circulation. Rather, these changes in climate and the attendant synchronous, broad-scale responses of vegetation indicate a global atmospheric forcing. However, that forcing is apparently also distinct from changing concentrations of atmospheric CO2 (as represented in the Vostok ice-core data). High-resolution CO2 data, such as that from the new Greenland ice cores, will be required before critical assessments of plant-physiological responses to past atmospheric changes can be carried out.

  17. Neanderthal and Anatomically Modern Human interaction with Abrupt Late Pleistocene Environments - the data is finally good enough to talk about climate change!

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blockley, Simon; Schreve, Danielle

    2015-04-01

    The timing and nature of the appearance of Anatomically Modern Humans (AMH) in Europe, their interaction with, and eventual morphological replacement of Neanderthals (despite some shared genetic heritage) has been a matter of intense debate within archaeology for a generation. This period, often termed the Middle to Upper Palaeolithic transition occurs in the latter part of Marine Isotope Stage Three and in recent decades archaeological interest has been complemented by the input of palaeoclimate scientists, over the role of abrupt climate change in this process. This was due to the recognition from ice core and marine proxy archives, in particular, of periods if intense cooling, correlated to the marine record of Heinrich ice rafted debris layers from the Atlantic. As a result of these collaborations between the archaeological and palaeoenvironmental communities various drivers have been proposed for the Middle to Upper Palaeolithic Transition that include: (1) resource competition between two species occupying similar niches; (2) the impact of repeated cycles of Heinrich event cooling, leading to the decline and eventual disappearance of the Neanderthal populations, leaving a new region open for AMH exploitation; and (3) catastrophic impacts of large volcanic eruptions on Neanderthal populations. Attempts to address the above hypotheses have been dogged by the chronological precision available for a number of key archives. The accuracy of many of the radiocarbon ages that underpin the chronology for both Neanderthal and AMH archaeological sites has been questioned1. This has been exacerbated by uncertainties over the influence of variability in the radiocarbon marine reservoir effect on marine palaeoclimate records and a marine dominated radiocarbon calibration curve. Additionally, the counting uncertainties of the master Greenland palaeoclimate archives are also large by this time, meaning palaeoclimate interpretation can be equivocal. However, several research

  18. A Novel Method for Fast Change-Point Detection on Simulated Time Series and Electrocardiogram Data

    PubMed Central

    Qi, Jin-Peng; Zhang, Qing; Zhu, Ying; Qi, Jie

    2014-01-01

    Although Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) statistic is a widely used method, some weaknesses exist in investigating abrupt Change Point (CP) problems, e.g. it is time-consuming and invalid sometimes. To detect abrupt change from time series fast, a novel method is proposed based on Haar Wavelet (HW) and KS statistic (HWKS). First, the two Binary Search Trees (BSTs), termed TcA and TcD, are constructed by multi-level HW from a diagnosed time series; the framework of HWKS method is implemented by introducing a modified KS statistic and two search rules based on the two BSTs; and then fast CP detection is implemented by two HWKS-based algorithms. Second, the performance of HWKS is evaluated by simulated time series dataset. The simulations show that HWKS is faster, more sensitive and efficient than KS, HW, and T methods. Last, HWKS is applied to analyze the electrocardiogram (ECG) time series, the experiment results show that the proposed method can find abrupt change from ECG segment with maximal data fluctuation more quickly and efficiently, and it is very helpful to inspect and diagnose the different state of health from a patient's ECG signal. PMID:24690633

  19. Anxiety, conscious awareness and change detection.

    PubMed

    Gregory, Sally M; Lambert, Anthony

    2012-03-01

    Attentional scanning was studied in anxious and non-anxious participants, using a modified change detection paradigm. Participants detected changes in pairs of emotional scenes separated by two task irrelevant slides, which contained an emotionally valenced scene (the 'distractor scene') and a visual mask. In agreement with attentional control theory, change detection latencies were slower overall for anxious participants. Change detection in anxious, but not non-anxious, participants was influenced by the emotional valence and exposure duration of distractor scenes. When negative distractor scenes were presented at subliminal exposure durations, anxious participants detected changes more rapidly than when supraliminal negative scenes or subliminal positive scenes were presented. We propose that for anxious participants, subliminal presentation of emotionally negative distractor scenes stimulated attention into a dynamic state in the absence of attentional engagement. Presentation of the same scenes at longer exposure times was accompanied by conscious awareness, attentional engagement, and slower change detection.

  20. Basic mechanism for abrupt monsoon transitions

    PubMed Central

    Levermann, Anders; Schewe, Jacob; Petoukhov, Vladimir; Held, Hermann

    2009-01-01

    Monsoon systems influence the livelihood of hundreds of millions of people. During the Holocene and last glacial period, rainfall in India and China has undergone strong and abrupt changes. Though details of monsoon circulations are complicated, observations reveal a defining moisture-advection feedback that dominates the seasonal heat balance and might act as an internal amplifier, leading to abrupt changes in response to relatively weak external perturbations. Here we present a minimal conceptual model capturing this positive feedback. The basic equations, motivated by observed relations, yield a threshold behavior, robust with respect to addition of other physical processes. Below this threshold in net radiative influx, R c, no conventional monsoon can develop; above R c, two stable regimes exist. We identify a nondimensional parameter l that defines the threshold and makes monsoon systems comparable with respect to the character of their abrupt transition. This dynamic similitude may be helpful in understanding past and future variations in monsoon circulation. Within the restrictions of the model, we compute R c for current monsoon systems in India, China, the Bay of Bengal, West Africa, North America, and Australia, where moisture advection is the main driver of the circulation. PMID:19858472

  1. Basic mechanism for abrupt monsoon transitions.

    PubMed

    Levermann, Anders; Schewe, Jacob; Petoukhov, Vladimir; Held, Hermann

    2009-12-08

    Monsoon systems influence the livelihood of hundreds of millions of people. During the Holocene and last glacial period, rainfall in India and China has undergone strong and abrupt changes. Though details of monsoon circulations are complicated, observations reveal a defining moisture-advection feedback that dominates the seasonal heat balance and might act as an internal amplifier, leading to abrupt changes in response to relatively weak external perturbations. Here we present a minimal conceptual model capturing this positive feedback. The basic equations, motivated by observed relations, yield a threshold behavior, robust with respect to addition of other physical processes. Below this threshold in net radiative influx, R(c), no conventional monsoon can develop; above R(c), two stable regimes exist. We identify a nondimensional parameter l that defines the threshold and makes monsoon systems comparable with respect to the character of their abrupt transition. This dynamic similitude may be helpful in understanding past and future variations in monsoon circulation. Within the restrictions of the model, we compute R(c) for current monsoon systems in India, China, the Bay of Bengal, West Africa, North America, and Australia, where moisture advection is the main driver of the circulation.

  2. Anomalous change detection in imagery

    DOEpatents

    Theiler, James P.; Perkins, Simon J.

    2011-05-31

    A distribution-based anomaly detection platform is described that identifies a non-flat background that is specified in terms of the distribution of the data. A resampling approach is also disclosed employing scrambled resampling of the original data with one class specified by the data and the other by the explicit distribution, and solving using binary classification.

  3. The magnitude, timing and abruptness of changes in North African dust deposition over the last 20,000 years: Insights into regional atmospheric circulation and dust-related climate impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McGee, D.; deMenocal, P. B.; Winckler, G.; Stuut, J. W.; Bradtmiller, L. I.; Mahowald, N. M.; Albani, S.

    2012-12-01

    Reconstructions of eolian dust accumulation in West African margin sediments provide important continuous records of past changes in atmospheric circulation and aridity in the region. Existing records indicate dramatic changes in West African dust emissions over the last 20 ka, including high dust emissions during Heinrich Stadial 1 and the Younger Dryas and lower dust emissions during the African Humid Period, a period of enhanced monsoon precipitation from approximately 11.7-5 ka. The limited spatial extent of these records, as well as the lack of high-resolution flux data, do not allow us to determine whether changes in dust deposition occurred with similar timing, magnitude and abruptness throughout northwest Africa. Here we present new records from a meridional transect of cores stretching from 27°N to 19°N along the northwest African margin, as well as from cores in the western tropical Atlantic reflecting downwind deposition. By combining grain size endmember modeling with 230Th-normalized fluxes in these cores, we are able to document spatial and temporal changes in dust loads and grain size distributions within the North African dust plume throughout the last 20 ka. Our results provide quantitative estimates of the magnitude of dust flux changes associated with Heinrich Stadial 1, the Younger Dryas, and the AHP. Our data are consistent with abrupt, synchronous changes in dust fluxes in all cores at the beginning and end of the AHP. Using these new records to tune dust loadings in a fully coupled model of 6 ka climate, we find that low dust fluxes during the AHP may have had a substantial positive feedback on regional precipitation by amplifying the northward displacement of the Atlantic and West African ITCZ.

  4. Image Change Detection via Ensemble Learning

    SciTech Connect

    Martin, Benjamin W; Vatsavai, Raju

    2013-01-01

    The concept of geographic change detection is relevant in many areas. Changes in geography can reveal much information about a particular location. For example, analysis of changes in geography can identify regions of population growth, change in land use, and potential environmental disturbance. A common way to perform change detection is to use a simple method such as differencing to detect regions of change. Though these techniques are simple, often the application of these techniques is very limited. Recently, use of machine learning methods such as neural networks for change detection has been explored with great success. In this work, we explore the use of ensemble learning methodologies for detecting changes in bitemporal synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images. Ensemble learning uses a collection of weak machine learning classifiers to create a stronger classifier which has higher accuracy than the individual classifiers in the ensemble. The strength of the ensemble lies in the fact that the individual classifiers in the ensemble create a mixture of experts in which the final classification made by the ensemble classifier is calculated from the outputs of the individual classifiers. Our methodology leverages this aspect of ensemble learning by training collections of weak decision tree based classifiers to identify regions of change in SAR images collected of a region in the Staten Island, New York area during Hurricane Sandy. Preliminary studies show that the ensemble method has approximately 11.5% higher change detection accuracy than an individual classifier.

  5. Detecting Concentration Changes with Cooperative Receptors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bo, Stefano; Celani, Antonio

    2016-03-01

    Cells constantly need to monitor the state of the environment to detect changes and timely respond. The detection of concentration changes of a ligand by a set of receptors can be cast as a problem of hypothesis testing, and the cell viewed as a Neyman-Pearson detector. Within this framework, we investigate the role of receptor cooperativity in improving the cell's ability to detect changes. We find that cooperativity decreases the probability of missing an occurred change. This becomes especially beneficial when difficult detections have to be made. Concerning the influence of cooperativity on how fast a desired detection power is achieved, we find in general that there is an optimal value at finite levels of cooperation, even though easy discrimination tasks can be performed more rapidly by noncooperative receptors.

  6. Indigenous people's detection of rapid ecological change.

    PubMed

    Aswani, Shankar; Lauer, Matthew

    2014-06-01

    When sudden catastrophic events occur, it becomes critical for coastal communities to detect and respond to environmental transformations because failure to do so may undermine overall ecosystem resilience and threaten people's livelihoods. We therefore asked how capable of detecting rapid ecological change following massive environmental disruptions local, indigenous people are. We assessed the direction and periodicity of experimental learning of people in the Western Solomon Islands after a tsunami in 2007. We compared the results of marine science surveys with local ecological knowledge of the benthos across 3 affected villages and 3 periods before and after the tsunami. We sought to determine how people recognize biophysical changes in the environment before and after catastrophic events such as earthquakes and tsunamis and whether people have the ability to detect ecological changes over short time scales or need longer time scales to recognize changes. Indigenous people were able to detect changes in the benthos over time. Detection levels differed between marine science surveys and local ecological knowledge sources over time, but overall patterns of statistically significant detection of change were evident for various habitats. Our findings have implications for marine conservation, coastal management policies, and disaster-relief efforts because when people are able to detect ecological changes, this, in turn, affects how they exploit and manage their marine resources.

  7. Abrupt climate changes and the effects of North Atlantic deepwater formation: Results from the GENESIS global climate model and comparison with data from the Younger Dryas event and the event at 8200 years bp and the present

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agustsdottir, Anna Maria

    1998-10-01

    Abrupt changes in climate towards glacial conditions have occurred several times during the last tens of thousands of years. A reduction in ocean heat transport to the high-latitude North Atlantic, associated with reduction, shutdown, or southward shift in formation of North Atlantic Deepwater, is hypothesized to have caused or amplified abrupt cooling events. The model-data comparisons reported here provide strong support for this hypothesis for the Younger Dryas interval and the cold event about 8200 years ago, and show likely changes were such an oceanic change to occur in the near future. Different levels of North Atlantic ocean heat transport were specified in age-appropriate simulations using the GENESIS GCM climate model. For the Younger Dryas, simulated reduction in GENESIS ocean heat transport (in versions 1.02A and 2.0) from modern levels produces climate-anomaly patterns, including many seasonal changes, that closely match observations, however, observed changes far from the North Atlantic are somewhat larger than modeled. Both model and data indicate stronger winds during cold times. Modeled cold-time winds produce about 10% more tropical-ocean Ekman divergence in regions and at times of prominent upwelling. The cooling associated with this, but not calculated for the mixed- layer GENESIS model ocean, probably is important in model-data differences. Because of the success of GENESIS in simulating Younger Dryas changes around the North Atlantic but underestimating those beyond this region, the large changes simulated for a modern reduction of North Atlantic ocean heat transport likely march or underestimate those that would occur if such a change occurred in the near future. Reduction in ocean heat transport for 8200 years ago form modern levels produces an anomaly pattern somewhat like observations, but reduction form heat transport higher than modern produces a much better match. Together with other evidence, this suggests that this cold climate event

  8. Change Detection Experiments Using Low Cost UAVs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Logan, Michael J.; Vranas, Thomas L.; Motter, Mark; Hines, Glenn D.; Rahman, Zia-ur

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents the progress in the development of a low-cost change-detection system. This system is being developed to provide users with the ability to use a low-cost unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and image processing system that can detect changes in specific fixed ground locations using video provided by an autonomous UAV. The results of field experiments conducted with the US Army at Ft. A.P.Hill are presented.

  9. Change Point Detection in Correlation Networks

    PubMed Central

    Barnett, Ian; Onnela, Jukka-Pekka

    2016-01-01

    Many systems of interacting elements can be conceptualized as networks, where network nodes represent the elements and network ties represent interactions between the elements. In systems where the underlying network evolves, it is useful to determine the points in time where the network structure changes significantly as these may correspond to functional change points. We propose a method for detecting change points in correlation networks that, unlike previous change point detection methods designed for time series data, requires minimal distributional assumptions. We investigate the difficulty of change point detection near the boundaries of the time series in correlation networks and study the power of our method and competing methods through simulation. We also show the generalizable nature of the method by applying it to stock price data as well as fMRI data. PMID:26739105

  10. Change Point Detection in Correlation Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barnett, Ian; Onnela, Jukka-Pekka

    2016-01-01

    Many systems of interacting elements can be conceptualized as networks, where network nodes represent the elements and network ties represent interactions between the elements. In systems where the underlying network evolves, it is useful to determine the points in time where the network structure changes significantly as these may correspond to functional change points. We propose a method for detecting change points in correlation networks that, unlike previous change point detection methods designed for time series data, requires minimal distributional assumptions. We investigate the difficulty of change point detection near the boundaries of the time series in correlation networks and study the power of our method and competing methods through simulation. We also show the generalizable nature of the method by applying it to stock price data as well as fMRI data.

  11. Sensor for detecting changes in magnetic fields

    DOEpatents

    Praeg, W.F.

    1980-02-26

    A sensor is described for detecting changes in the magnetic field of the equilibrium-field coil of a Tokamak plasma device that comprises a pair of bifilar wires disposed circumferentially, one inside and one outside the equilibrium-field coil. Each is shorted at one end. The difference between the voltages detected at the other ends of the bifilar wires provides a measure of changing flux in the equilibrium-field coil. This difference can be used to detect faults in the coil in time to take action to protect the coil.

  12. Sensor for detecting changes in magnetic fields

    DOEpatents

    Praeg, Walter F.

    1981-01-01

    A sensor for detecting changes in the magnetic field of the equilibrium-field coil of a Tokamak plasma device comprises a pair of bifilar wires disposed circumferentially, one inside and one outside the equilibrium-field coil. Each is shorted at one end. The difference between the voltages detected at the other ends of the bifilar wires provides a measure of changing flux in the equilibrium-field coil. This difference can be used to detect faults in the coil in time to take action to protect the coil.

  13. Parallax mitigation for hyperspectral change detection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vongsy, Karmon; Eismann, Michael T.; Mendenhall, Michael J.; Velten, Vincent J.

    2014-06-01

    A pixel-level Generalized Likelihood Ratio Test (GLRT) statistic for hyperspectral change detection is developed to mitigate false change caused by image parallax. Change detection, in general, represents the difficult problem of discriminating significant changes opposed to insignificant changes caused by radiometric calibration, image registration issues, and varying view geometries. We assume that the images have been registered, and each pixel pair provides a measurement from the same spatial region in the scene. Although advanced image registration methods exist that can reduce mis-registration to subpixel levels; residual spatial mis-registration can still be incorrectly detected as significant changes. Similarly, changes in sensor viewing geometry can lead to parallax error in an urban cluttered scene where height structures, such as buildings, appear to move. Our algorithm looks to the inherent relationship between the image views and the theory of stereo vision to perform parallax mitigation leading to a search result in the assumed parallax direction. Mitigation of the parallax-induced false alarms is demonstrated using hyperspectral data in the experimental analysis. The algorithm is examined and compared to the existing chronochrome anomalous change detection algorithm to assess performance.

  14. Evaluation of experimental UAV video change detection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bartelsen, J.; Saur, G.; Teutsch, C.

    2016-10-01

    During the last ten years, the availability of images acquired from unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) has been continuously increasing due to the improvements and economic success of flight and sensor systems. From our point of view, reliable and automatic image-based change detection may contribute to overcoming several challenging problems in military reconnaissance, civil security, and disaster management. Changes within a scene can be caused by functional activities, i.e., footprints or skid marks, excavations, or humidity penetration; these might be recognizable in aerial images, but are almost overlooked when change detection is executed manually. With respect to the circumstances, these kinds of changes may be an indication of sabotage, terroristic activity, or threatening natural disasters. Although image-based change detection is possible from both ground and aerial perspectives, in this paper we primarily address the latter. We have applied an extended approach to change detection as described by Saur and Kr uger,1 and Saur et al.2 and have built upon the ideas of Saur and Bartelsen.3 The commercial simulation environment Virtual Battle Space 3 (VBS3) is used to simulate aerial "before" and "after" image acquisition concerning flight path, weather conditions and objects within the scene and to obtain synthetic videos. Video frames, which depict the same part of the scene, including "before" and "after" changes and not necessarily from the same perspective, are registered pixel-wise against each other by a photogrammetric concept, which is based on a homography. The pixel-wise registration is used to apply an automatic difference analysis, which, to a limited extent, is able to suppress typical errors caused by imprecise frame registration, sensor noise, vegetation and especially parallax effects. The primary concern of this paper is to seriously evaluate the possibilities and limitations of our current approach for image-based change detection with respect

  15. The impact of misregistration on change detection

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Townshend, John R. G.; Justice, Christopher O.; Gurney, Charlotte; Mcmanus, James

    1992-01-01

    The impact of images misregistration on the detection of changes in land cover was studied using spatially degraded Landsat MSS images. Emphasis is placed on simulated images of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) at spatial resolutions of 250 and 500 m. It is pointed out that there is the need to achieve high values of registration accuracy. The evidence from simulations suggests that misregistrations can have a marked effect on the ability of remotely sensed data to detect changes in land cover. Even subpixel misregistrations can have a major impact, and the most marked proportional changes will tend to occur at the finest misregistrations.

  16. Automated change detection for synthetic aperture sonar

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    G-Michael, Tesfaye; Marchand, Bradley; Tucker, J. D.; Sternlicht, Daniel D.; Marston, Timothy M.; Azimi-Sadjadi, Mahmood R.

    2014-05-01

    In this paper, an automated change detection technique is presented that compares new and historical seafloor images created with sidescan synthetic aperture sonar (SAS) for changes occurring over time. The method consists of a four stage process: a coarse navigational alignment; fine-scale co-registration using the scale invariant feature transform (SIFT) algorithm to match features between overlapping images; sub-pixel co-registration to improves phase coherence; and finally, change detection utilizing canonical correlation analysis (CCA). The method was tested using data collected with a high-frequency SAS in a sandy shallow-water environment. By using precise co-registration tools and change detection algorithms, it is shown that the coherent nature of the SAS data can be exploited and utilized in this environment over time scales ranging from hours through several days.

  17. Holistic processing improves change detection but impairs change identification.

    PubMed

    Mathis, Katherine M; Kahan, Todd A

    2014-10-01

    It has been just over a century since Gestalt psychologists described the factors that contribute to the holistic processing of visually presented stimuli. Recent research indicates that holistic processing may come at a cost; specifically, the perception of holistic forms may reduce the visibility of constituent parts. In the present experiment, we examined change detection and change identification accuracy with Kanizsa rectangle patterns that were arranged to either form a Gestalt whole or not. Results from an experiment with 62 participants support this trade-off in processing holistic forms. Holistic processing improved the detection of change but obstructed its identification. Results are discussed in terms of both their theoretical significance and their application in areas ranging from baggage screening and the detection of changes in radiological images to the systems that are used to generate composite images of perpetrators on the basis of eyewitness reports.

  18. Abrupt changes in forage dry matter of one to three days affect intake and milk yield in late lactation dairy cows

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Our objective was to determine if late lactation cows were susceptible to 1-, 2-, and 3-day changes in forage DM. Forty-four Holstein cows (22 primiparous and 22 multiparous), averaging 155 DIM, 42.5 kg/d of milk, and 597 kg body weight, were used in a study conducted from Jan to Mar 2010. Within ea...

  19. Parameterizing turbulence over abrupt topography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klymak, Jody

    2016-11-01

    Stratified flow over abrupt topography generates a spectrum of propagating internal waves at large scales, and non-linear overturning breaking waves at small scales. For oscillating flows, the large scale waves propagate away as internal tides, for steady flows the large-scale waves propagate away as standing "columnar modes". At small-scales, the breaking waves appear to be similar for either oscillating or steady flows, so long as in the oscillating case the topography is significantly steeper than the internal tide angle of propagation. The size and energy lost to the breaking waves can be predicted relatively well from assuming that internal modes that propagate horizontally more slowly than the barotropic internal tide speed are arrested and their energy goes to turbulence. This leads to a recipe for dissipation of internal tides at abrupt topography that is quite robust for both the local internal tide generation problem (barotropic forcing) and for the scattering problem (internal tides incident on abrupt topography). Limitations arise when linear generation models break down, an example of which is interference between two ridges. A single "super-critical" ridge is well-modeled by a single knife-edge topography, regardless of its actual shape, but two supercritical ridges in close proximity demonstrate interference of the high modes that makes knife-edfe approximations invalid. Future direction of this research will be to use more complicated linear models to estimate the local dissipation. Of course, despite the large local dissipation, many ridges radiate most of their energy into the deep ocean, so tracking this low-mode radiated energy is very important, particularly as it means dissipation parameterizations in the open ocean due to these sinks from the surface tide cannot be parameterized locally to where they are lost from the surface tide, but instead lead to non-local parameterizations. US Office of Naval Research; Canadian National Science and

  20. NOVELTY DETECTION UNDER CHANGING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS

    SciTech Connect

    H. SOHN; K. WORDER; C. R. FARRAR

    2001-04-01

    The primary objective of novelty detection is to examine a system's dynamic response to determine if the system significantly deviates from an initial baseline condition. In reality, the system is often subject to changing environmental and operation conditions that affect its dynamic characteristics. Such variations include changes in loading, boundary conditions, temperature, and moisture. Most damage diagnosis techniques, however, generally neglect the effects of these changing ambient conditions. Here, a novelty detection technique is developed explicitly taking into account these natural variations of the system in order to minimize false positive indications of true system changes. Auto-associative neural networks are employed to discriminate system changes of interest such as structural deterioration and damage from the natural variations of the system.

  1. Automatic change detection in spaceborne SAR imagery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Corr, Douglas G.; Whitehouse, Simon W.; Mott, David H.; Baldwin, Jim F.

    1996-06-01

    This paper describes a new technique of the automatic detection of change within synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images produced from satellite data. The interpretation of this type of imagery is difficult due to the combined effect of speckle, low resolution and the complexity of the radar signatures. The change detection technique that has been developed overcomes these problems by automatically measuring the degree of change between two images. The principle behind the technique used is that when satellite repeat orbits are at almost the same position in space then unless the scene has changed, the speckle pattern in the image will be unchanged. Comparison of images therefore reveals real change, not change due to fluctuating speckle patterns. The degree of change between two SAR images was measured by using the coherence function. Coherence has been studied for a variety of scene types: agricultural, forestry, domestic housing, small and large scale industrial complexes. Fuzzy set techniques, as well as direct threshold methods, have bee applied to the coherence data to determine places where change has occurred. The method has been validated using local information on building changes due to construction or demolition.

  2. Abrupt and severe 20th Century changes in the fire regimes of southeastern Australia: Evidence from a 3000 year multi-proxy analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baker, Patrick; Mooney, Scott; Allen, Kathryn; Willersdorf, Timothy

    2015-04-01

    Fire is the dominant natural disturbance in southeastern Australia. For millennia it has been the driving force shaping terrestrial ecosystems in the region -- simultaneously killing vegetation and initiating regeneration across whole landscapes. Fire regimes across the region are driven by several factors including climate, vegetation, and ignition sources. Humans have been a significant contributing factor to past and present fire regimes. Prior to European settlement in the late 1700s, Aboriginal Australians used frequent, low-intensity fires to manage vegetation across much of the landscape. European settlement led to the displacement of Aboriginal communities and a shift to active fire suppression and control. This changing approach to fire management is widely believed to have initiated a fundamental shift towards extreme, high-intensity fire events as fuel loads increased. In addition, during the 20th Century prolonged periods of warm, dry conditions have occurred with greater frequency and intensity. The relative importance of climate and fire management practices on contemporary fire regimes is vigorously debated in Australia and is directly relevant to land management policies and their implementation. To put the current fire regime into historical context, we used a multi-proxy approach combining palaeo-charcoal and tree-ring analyses to assess how fire regimes have changed over the last 3000 years in the Snowy Mountains region of southeastern Australia. We found almost no evidence of high-intensity fires in the 3000 years that preceded the 20th Century. However, in the mid-20th Century there is a sudden and dramatic increase in the presence of charcoal and the pulsed establishment of trees across the landscape, suggesting a recent shift from low-intensity fires with minimal charcoal signatures to moderate- to high-intensity fires with substantial charcoal inputs. Importantly, the tree-ring data demonstrate that most of these fires were not stand

  3. Parametric probability distributions for anomalous change detection

    SciTech Connect

    Theiler, James P; Foy, Bernard R; Wohlberg, Brendt E; Scovel, James C

    2010-01-01

    The problem of anomalous change detection arises when two (or possibly more) images are taken of the same scene, but at different times. The aim is to discount the 'pervasive differences' that occur thoughout the imagery, due to the inevitably different conditions under which the images were taken (caused, for instance, by differences in illumination, atmospheric conditions, sensor calibration, or misregistration), and to focus instead on the 'anomalous changes' that actually take place in the scene. In general, anomalous change detection algorithms attempt to model these normal or pervasive differences, based on data taken directly from the imagery, and then identify as anomalous those pixels for which the model does not hold. For many algorithms, these models are expressed in terms of probability distributions, and there is a class of such algorithms that assume the distributions are Gaussian. By considering a broader class of distributions, however, a new class of anomalous change detection algorithms can be developed. We consider several parametric families of such distributions, derive the associated change detection algorithms, and compare the performance with standard algorithms that are based on Gaussian distributions. We find that it is often possible to significantly outperform these standard algorithms, even using relatively simple non-Gaussian models.

  4. Changes in fluid geochemistry and physico-chemical conditions of geothermal systems caused by magmatic input: The recent abrupt outgassing off the island of Panarea (Aeolian Islands, Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caracausi, A.; Ditta, M.; Italiano, F.; Longo, M.; Nuccio, P. M.; Paonita, A.; Rizzo, A.

    2005-06-01

    Hydrothermal systems and related vents can exhibit dramatic changes in their physico-chemical conditions over time as a response to varying activity in the feeding magmatic systems. Massive steam condensation and gas scrubbing processes of thermal fluids during their ascent and cooling cause further compositional changes that mask information regarding the conditions evolving at depth in the hydrothermal system. Here we propose a new stability diagram based on the CO 2-CH 4-CO-H 2 concentrations in vapor, which aims at calculating the temperatures and pressures in hydrothermal reservoirs. To filter gas scrubbing effects, we have also developed a model for selective dissolution of CO 2-H 2S-N 2-CH 4-He-Ne mixtures in fresh and/or air-saturated seawater. This methodology has been applied to the recent (November 2002) crisis that affected the geothermal field off the island of Panarea (Italy), where the fluid composition and fluxes have been monitored for the past two decades. The chemical and isotopic compositions of the gases suggest that the volatile elements originate from an active magma, which feeds a boiling saline solution having temperatures of up to 350°C and containing ≈12 mol% CO 2 in vapor. The thermal fluids undergo cooling and re-equilibration processes on account of gas-water-rock interactions during their ascent along fracture networks. Furthermore, steam condensation and removal of acidic species, partial dissolution in cold air-saturated seawater and stripping of atmospheric components, affect the composition of the geothermal gases at shallow levels. The observed geochemical variations are consistent with a new input of magmatic fluids that perturbed the geothermal system and caused the unrest event. The present-state evolution shows that this dramatic input of fluids is probably over, and that the system is now tending towards steady-state conditions on a time scale of months.

  5. Abrupt plate accelerations shape rifted continental margins.

    PubMed

    Brune, Sascha; Williams, Simon E; Butterworth, Nathaniel P; Müller, R Dietmar

    2016-08-11

    Rifted margins are formed by persistent stretching of continental lithosphere until breakup is achieved. It is well known that strain-rate-dependent processes control rift evolution, yet quantified extension histories of Earth's major passive margins have become available only recently. Here we investigate rift kinematics globally by applying a new geotectonic analysis technique to revised global plate reconstructions. We find that rifted margins feature an initial, slow rift phase (less than ten millimetres per year, full rate) and that an abrupt increase of plate divergence introduces a fast rift phase. Plate acceleration takes place before continental rupture and considerable margin area is created during each phase. We reproduce the rapid transition from slow to fast extension using analytical and numerical modelling with constant force boundary conditions. The extension models suggest that the two-phase velocity behaviour is caused by a rift-intrinsic strength--velocity feedback, which can be robustly inferred for diverse lithosphere configurations and rheologies. Our results explain differences between proximal and distal margin areas and demonstrate that abrupt plate acceleration during continental rifting is controlled by the nonlinear decay of the resistive rift strength force. This mechanism provides an explanation for several previously unexplained rapid absolute plate motion changes, offering new insights into the balance of plate driving forces through time.

  6. Characteristics of the deep ocean carbon system during the past 150,000 years: SigmaCO2 distributions, deep water flow patterns, and abrupt climate change.

    PubMed

    Boyle, E A

    1997-08-05

    Studies of carbon isotopes and cadmium in bottom-dwelling foraminifera from ocean sediment cores have advanced our knowledge of ocean chemical distributions during the late Pleistocene. Last Glacial Maximum data are consistent with a persistent high-SigmaCO2 state for eastern Pacific deep water. Both tracers indicate that the mid-depth North and tropical Atlantic Ocean almost always has lower SigmaCO2 levels than those in the Pacific. Upper waters of the Last Glacial Maximum Atlantic are more SigmaCO2-depleted and deep waters are SigmaCO2-enriched compared with the waters of the present. In the northern Indian Ocean, delta13C and Cd data are consistent with upper water SigmaCO2 depletion relative to the present. There is no evident proximate source of this SigmaCO2-depleted water, so I suggest that SigmaCO2-depleted North Atlantic intermediate/deep water turns northward around the southern tip of Africa and moves toward the equator as a western boundary current. At long periods (>15,000 years), Milankovitch cycle variability is evident in paleochemical time series. But rapid millennial-scale variability can be seen in cores from high accumulation rate series. Atlantic deep water chemical properties are seen to change in as little as a few hundred years or less. An extraordinary new 52.7-m-long core from the Bermuda Rise contains a faithful record of climate variability with century-scale resolution. Sediment composition can be linked in detail with the isotope stage 3 interstadials recorded in Greenland ice cores. This new record shows at least 12 major climate fluctuations within marine isotope stage 5 (about 70,000-130,000 years before the present).

  7. Characteristics of the deep ocean carbon system during the past 150,000 years: ΣCO2 distributions, deep water flow patterns, and abrupt climate change

    PubMed Central

    Boyle, Edward A.

    1997-01-01

    Studies of carbon isotopes and cadmium in bottom-dwelling foraminifera from ocean sediment cores have advanced our knowledge of ocean chemical distributions during the late Pleistocene. Last Glacial Maximum data are consistent with a persistent high-ΣCO2 state for eastern Pacific deep water. Both tracers indicate that the mid-depth North and tropical Atlantic Ocean almost always has lower ΣCO2 levels than those in the Pacific. Upper waters of the Last Glacial Maximum Atlantic are more ΣCO2-depleted and deep waters are ΣCO2-enriched compared with the waters of the present. In the northern Indian Ocean, δ13C and Cd data are consistent with upper water ΣCO2 depletion relative to the present. There is no evident proximate source of this ΣCO2-depleted water, so I suggest that ΣCO2-depleted North Atlantic intermediate/deep water turns northward around the southern tip of Africa and moves toward the equator as a western boundary current. At long periods (>15,000 years), Milankovitch cycle variability is evident in paleochemical time series. But rapid millennial-scale variability can be seen in cores from high accumulation rate series. Atlantic deep water chemical properties are seen to change in as little as a few hundred years or less. An extraordinary new 52.7-m-long core from the Bermuda Rise contains a faithful record of climate variability with century-scale resolution. Sediment composition can be linked in detail with the isotope stage 3 interstadials recorded in Greenland ice cores. This new record shows at least 12 major climate fluctuations within marine isotope stage 5 (about 70,000–130,000 years before the present). PMID:11607737

  8. Could massive Arctic sea ice export to the North Atlantic be the real cause of abrupt climate change during the last deglaciation?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coletti, A. J.; Condron, A.

    2015-12-01

    Using a coupled ocean-sea ice model (MITgcm), we investigate whether the break-up and mobilization of thick, multiyear, Arctic sea ice might have supplied enough freshwater to the Nordic Seas to reduce North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) formation and weaken the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Numerical simulations of a Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) environment show the potential for sea ice to grow to ~30m thick, storing ~1.41x105 km3 of freshwater as sea ice in the Arctic (this is ~10 times the volume of freshwater stored in the modern-day Arctic). Releasing this volume of sea ice from the Arctic in 1-yr is equivalent to a high-latitude freshwater forcing of ~4.5 Sv, which is comparable (or larger) in magnitude to most meltwater floods emanating from land-based glacial lakes (e.g. Agassiz) during the last deglaciation. Opening of the Bering Strait and Barents Sea are two plausible mechanisms that may have initiated sea ice mobilization. Opening Bering Strait increases sea ice transport through the Fram Strait by 7% and results in a 22% weakening of AMOC for 2000 years and a >3°C warming in the Arctic basin at 800 m depth. Opening Barents Sea to simulate a collapse of the Fennoscandian ice sheet has little impact on Arctic sea ice and freshwater export to the North Atlantic, but weakens AMOC ~8%. In a simulation with both straits open there is a transition to near-modern sea ice circulation pattern and a 24% reduction in AMOC. Experiments with the Bering Strait open and sea ice artificially capped to 10 m show barely any difference to those when sea ice can grow to ~30m, suggesting that changes in topography have a much greater impact on AMOC than the freshwater forcing from sea ice melting in the Nordic Seas.

  9. Lateglacial-Holocene abrupt vegetation changes at Lago Trifoglietti in Calabria, Southern Italy: The setting of ecosystems in a refugial zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beaulieu, Jacques-Louis de; Brugiapaglia, Elisabetta; Joannin, Sébastien; Guiter, Frédéric; Zanchetta, Giovanni; Wulf, Sabine; Peyron, Odile; Bernardo, Liliana; Didier, Julien; Stock, Agnès; Rius, Damien; Magny, Michel

    2017-02-01

    Retrospective science such as palaeoecology deeply depends on the preservation of archives in sensitive places. As an example, mountains of medium altitude from Mediterranean peninsulas have long been identified by biogeographers as refuges zones allowing the survival of European temperate taxa during the ice ages, but archives to validate this hypothesis are scarce, especially in Southern Italy. Here we present a new sequence from Lago Trifoglietti (1048 m a.s.l.) in the Calabrian Mountains, which covers the Late Glacial Interstadial (LGI, corresponding to the Bölling-Alleröd period in northern-central Europe) and the transition to the Holocene. The independent chronology based on seven radiocarbon dates is supported by the evidence of three tephra layers already identified in other regional sequences. During the LGI, besides the high diversity of non arboreal pollen grains, a great number of pollens of temperate forest trees are present or abundant (mostly deciduous oaks and fir). These assemblages suggest that the site was above but not far from the upper limit of diversified woodland stands. They confirm a local survival during the last glacial. The Younger Dryas is not marked by major changes, and oak percentages are even higher, suggesting a resilient expansion at lower altitude. Surprisingly the site remains above the timberline until an aridity crisis centered at 11,100 cal 14C yr PB, which is correlated with the Preboreal Oscillation (PBO). This event is immediately followed by the local settlement of a dense fir and beech forest around the lake. A comparison with other Italian key sequences aims at explaining the climate forcing factors that governed this original vegetation dynamic. Further investigations using additional proxies are needed for a more robust climate reconstruction.

  10. A stratigraphic framework for naming and robust correlation of abrupt climatic changes during the last glacial period based on three synchronized Greenland ice core records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rasmussen, Sune O.

    2014-05-01

    Due to their outstanding resolution and well-constrained chronologies, Greenland ice core records have long been used as a master record of past climatic changes during the last interglacial-glacial cycle in the North Atlantic region. As part of the INTIMATE (INtegration of Ice-core, MArine and TErrestrial records) project, protocols have been proposed to ensure consistent and robust correlation between different records of past climate. A key element of these protocols has been the formal definition of numbered Greenland Stadials (GS) and Greenland Interstadials (GI) within the past glacial period as the Greenland expressions of the characteristic Dansgaard-Oeschger events that represent cold and warm phases of the North Atlantic region, respectively. Using a recent synchronization of the NGRIP, GRIP, and GISP2 ice cores that allows the parallel analysis of all three records on a common time scale, we here present an extension of the GS/GI stratigraphic template to the entire glacial period. This is based on a combination of isotope ratios (δ18O, reflecting mainly local temperature) and calcium concentrations (reflecting mainly atmospheric dust loading). In addition to the well-known sequence of Dansgaard-Oeschger events that were first defined and numbered in the ice core records more than two decades ago, a number of short-lived climatic oscillations have been identified in the three synchronized records. Some of these events have been observed in other studies, but we here propose a consistent scheme for discriminating and naming all the significant climatic events of the last glacial period that are represented in the Greenland ice cores. This is a key step aimed at promoting unambiguous comparison and correlation between different proxy records, as well as a more secure basis for investigating the dynamics and fundamental causes of these climatic perturbations. The work presented is under review for publication in Quaternary Science Reviews. Author team: S

  11. Automatic change detection using mobile laser scanning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hebel, M.; Hammer, M.; Gordon, M.; Arens, M.

    2014-10-01

    Automatic change detection in 3D environments requires the comparison of multi-temporal data. By comparing current data with past data of the same area, changes can be automatically detected and identified. Volumetric changes in the scene hint at suspicious activities like the movement of military vehicles, the application of camouflage nets, or the placement of IEDs, etc. In contrast to broad research activities in remote sensing with optical cameras, this paper addresses the topic using 3D data acquired by mobile laser scanning (MLS). We present a framework for immediate comparison of current MLS data to given 3D reference data. Our method extends the concept of occupancy grids known from robot mapping, which incorporates the sensor positions in the processing of the 3D point clouds. This allows extracting the information that is included in the data acquisition geometry. For each single range measurement, it becomes apparent that an object reflects laser pulses in the measured range distance, i.e., space is occupied at that 3D position. In addition, it is obvious that space is empty along the line of sight between sensor and the reflecting object. Everywhere else, the occupancy of space remains unknown. This approach handles occlusions and changes implicitly, such that the latter are identifiable by conflicts of empty space and occupied space. The presented concept of change detection has been successfully validated in experiments with recorded MLS data streams. Results are shown for test sites at which MLS data were acquired at different time intervals.

  12. Total least squares for anomalous change detection

    SciTech Connect

    Theiler, James P; Matsekh, Anna M

    2010-01-01

    A family of difference-based anomalous change detection algorithms is derived from a total least squares (TLSQ) framework. This provides an alternative to the well-known chronochrome algorithm, which is derived from ordinary least squares. In both cases, the most anomalous changes are identified with the pixels that exhibit the largest residuals with respect to the regression of the two images against each other. The family of TLSQ-based anomalous change detectors is shown to be equivalent to the subspace RX formulation for straight anomaly detection, but applied to the stacked space. However, this family is not invariant to linear coordinate transforms. On the other hand, whitened TLSQ is coordinate invariant, and furthermore it is shown to be equivalent to the optimized covariance equalization algorithm. What whitened TLSQ offers, in addition to connecting with a common language the derivations of two of the most popular anomalous change detection algorithms - chronochrome and covariance equalization - is a generalization of these algorithms with the potential for better performance.

  13. RESTORING COASTAL ECOSYSTEMS: ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Consensus exists that U.S. coastal ecosystems are severely degraded due to a variety of human-factors requiring large financial expenditures to restore and manage. Yet, even as controversy surrounds human factors in ecosystem degradation in the Gulf of Mexico, Chesapeake Bay, an...

  14. Abrupt Climate Change Research Act of 2009

    THOMAS, 111th Congress

    Sen. Collins, Susan M. [R-ME

    2009-09-14

    09/14/2009 Read twice and referred to the Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation. (text of measure as introduced: CR S9330) (All Actions) Tracker: This bill has the status IntroducedHere are the steps for Status of Legislation:

  15. Detecting changes during pregnancy with Raman spectroscopy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vargis, Elizabeth; Robertson, Kesha; Al-Hendy, Ayman; Reese, Jeff; Mahadevan-Jansen, Anita

    2010-02-01

    Preterm labor is the second leading cause of neonatal mortality and leads to a myriad of complications like delayed development and cerebral palsy. Currently, there is no way to accurately predict preterm labor, making its prevention and treatment virtually impossible. While there are some at-risk patients, over half of all preterm births do not fall into any high-risk category. This study seeks to predict and prevent preterm labor by using Raman spectroscopy to detect changes in the cervix during pregnancy. Since Raman spectroscopy has been used to detect cancers in vivo in organs like the cervix and skin, it follows that spectra will change over the course of pregnancy. Previous studies have shown that fluorescence decreased during pregnancy and increased during post-partum exams to pre-pregnancy levels. We believe significant changes will occur in the Raman spectra obtained during the course of pregnancy. In this study, Raman spectra from the cervix of pregnant mice and women will be acquired. Specific changes that occur due to cervical softening or changes in hormonal levels will be observed to understand the likelihood that a female mouse or a woman will enter labor.

  16. Evaluation of object level change detection techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Irvine, John M.; Bergeron, Stuart; Hugo, Doug; O'Brien, Michael A.

    2007-04-01

    A variety of change detection (CD) methods have been developed and employed to support imagery analysis for applications including environmental monitoring, mapping, and support to military operations. Evaluation of these methods is necessary to assess technology maturity, identify areas for improvement, and support transition to operations. This paper presents a methodology for conducting this type of evaluation, discusses the challenges, and illustrates the techniques. The evaluation of object-level change detection methods is more complicated than for automated techniques for processing a single image. We explore algorithm performance assessments, emphasizing the definition of the operating conditions (sensor, target, and environmental factors) and the development of measures of performance. Specific challenges include image registration; occlusion due to foliage, cultural clutter and terrain masking; diurnal differences; and differences in viewing geometry. Careful planning, sound experimental design, and access to suitable imagery with image truth and metadata are critical.

  17. Detecting hydrological changes through conceptual model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Viola, Francesco; Caracciolo, Domenico; Pumo, Dario; Francipane, Antonio; Valerio Noto, Leonardo

    2015-04-01

    Natural changes and human modifications in hydrological systems coevolve and interact in a coupled and interlinked way. If, on one hand, climatic changes are stochastic, non-steady, and affect the hydrological systems, on the other hand, human-induced changes due to over-exploitation of soils and water resources modifies the natural landscape, water fluxes and its partitioning. Indeed, the traditional assumption of static systems in hydrological analysis, which has been adopted for long time, fails whenever transient climatic conditions and/or land use changes occur. Time series analysis is a way to explore environmental changes together with societal changes; unfortunately, the not distinguishability between causes restrict the scope of this method. In order to overcome this limitation, it is possible to couple time series analysis with an opportune hydrological model, such as a conceptual hydrological model, which offers a schematization of complex dynamics acting within a basin. Assuming that model parameters represent morphological basin characteristics and that calibration is a way to detect hydrological signature at a specific moment, it is possible to argue that calibrating the model over different time windows could be a method for detecting potential hydrological changes. In order to test the capabilities of a conceptual model in detecting hydrological changes, this work presents different "in silico" experiments. A synthetic-basin is forced with an ensemble of possible future scenarios generated with a stochastic weather generator able to simulate steady and non-steady climatic conditions. The experiments refer to Mediterranean climate, which is characterized by marked seasonality, and consider the outcomes of the IPCC 5th report for describing climate evolution in the next century. In particular, in order to generate future climate change scenarios, a stochastic downscaling in space and time is carried out using realizations of an ensemble of General

  18. Detecting Change in Longitudinal Social Networks

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-01-01

    marketing campaigns and media on social behavior. Initial Construct populations, social and knowledge networks, can be hypothetical or real (Carley...patent data bases, phone-networks, email- based-networks, social- media networks and more. Page 6 of 37 Current methods of change detection in...CUSUM C Sta measured fo o be successf Average Bet ct either incre or each socia g increases in the data for fective for ch ork. tistic Over Tim

  19. Automated Change Detection for Synthetic Aperture Sonar

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-01-01

    analysis ( CCA ). The method was tested using data collected with a high-frequency SAS in a sandy shallow-water environment. By using precise co...coherent-based change detection results using canonical correlation analysis ( CCA ) described by Azimi-Sadjadi and Srinivasan,18 G-Michael and Tucker15 and...Sternlicht and G-Michael,19 where the preliminary studies were performed on simulated SAR and SAS imagery. The motivation behind CCA comes from recent

  20. Scene change detection based on multimodal integration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, Yingying; Zhou, Dongru

    2003-09-01

    Scene change detection is an essential step to automatic and content-based video indexing, retrieval and browsing. In this paper, a robust scene change detection and classification approach is presented, which analyzes audio, visual and textual sources and accounts for their inter-relations and coincidence to semantically identify and classify video scenes. Audio analysis focuses on the segmentation of audio stream into four types of semantic data such as silence, speech, music and environmental sound. Further processing on speech segments aims at locating speaker changes. Video analysis partitions visual stream into shots. Text analysis can provide a supplemental source of clues for scene classification and indexing information. We integrate the video and audio analysis results to identify video scenes and use the text information detected by the video OCR technology or derived from transcripts available to refine scene classification. Results from single source segmentation are in some cases suboptimal. By combining visual, aural features adn the accessorial text information, the scence extraction accuracy is enhanced, and more semantic segmentations are developed. Experimental results are proven to rather promising.

  1. Abrupt Depletion Layer Approximation for the Metal Insulator Semiconductor Diode.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jones, Kenneth

    1979-01-01

    Determines the excess surface change carrier density, surface potential, and relative capacitance of a metal insulator semiconductor diode as a function of the gate voltage, using the precise questions and the equations derived with the abrupt depletion layer approximation. (Author/GA)

  2. Evaluation of change detection techniques for monitoring coastal zone environments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weismiller, R. A. (Principal Investigator); Kristof, S. J.; Scholz, D. K.; Anuta, P. E.; Momin, S. M.

    1977-01-01

    The author has identified the following significant results. Four change detection techniques were designed and implemented for evaluation: (1) post classification comparison change detection, (2) delta data change detection, (3) spectral/temporal change classification, and (4) layered spectral/temporal change classification. The post classification comparison technique reliably identified areas of change and was used as the standard for qualitatively evaluating the other three techniques. The layered spectral/temporal change classification and the delta data change detection results generally agreed with the post classification comparison technique results; however, many small areas of change were not identified. Major discrepancies existed between the post classification comparison and spectral/temporal change detection results.

  3. Analysis of abrupt transitions in ecological systems

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The occurrence and causes of abrupt transitions, thresholds, or regime shifts between ecosystem states are of great concern and the likelihood of such transitions is increasing for many ecological systems. General understanding of abrupt transitions has been advanced by theory, but hindered by the l...

  4. Nationwide Hybrid Change Detection of Buildings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hron, V.; Halounova, L.

    2016-06-01

    The Fundamental Base of Geographic Data of the Czech Republic (hereinafter FBGD) is a national 2D geodatabase at a 1:10,000 scale with more than 100 geographic objects. This paper describes the design of the permanent updating mechanism of buildings in FBGD. The proposed procedure belongs to the category of hybrid change detection (HCD) techniques which combine pixel-based and object-based evaluation. The main sources of information for HCD are cadastral information and bi-temporal vertical digital aerial photographs. These photographs have great information potential because they contain multispectral, position and also elevation information. Elevation information represents a digital surface model (DSM) which can be obtained using the image matching technique. Pixel-based evaluation of bi-temporal DSMs enables fast localization of places with potential building changes. These coarse results are subsequently classified through the object-based image analysis (OBIA) using spectral, textural and contextual features and GIS tools. The advantage of the two-stage evaluation is the pre-selection of locations where image segmentation (a computationally demanding part of OBIA) is performed. It is not necessary to apply image segmentation to the entire scene, but only to the surroundings of detected changes, which contributes to significantly faster processing and lower hardware requirements. The created technology is based on open-source software solutions that allow easy portability on multiple computers and parallelization of processing. This leads to significant savings of financial resources which can be expended on the further development of FBGD.

  5. Detecting ecological change on coral reefs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dustan, P.

    2011-12-01

    Remote sensing offers the potential to observe the response of coral reef ecosystems to environmental perturbations on a geographical scale not previously accessible. However, coral reef environments are optically, spatially, and temporally complex habitats which all present significant challenges for extracting meaningful information. Virtually every member of the reef community possesses some degree of photosynthetic capability. The community thus generates a matrix of fine scale features with bio-optical signatures that blend as the scale of observation increases. Furthermore, to have any validity, the remotely sensed signal must be "calibrated" to the bio-optics of the reef, a difficult and resource intensive process due to a convergence of photosynthetic light harvesting by green, red, and brown algal pigment systems. To make matters more complex, reefs are overlain by a seawater skin with its own set of hydrological optical challenges. Rather than concentrating on classification, my research has attempted to track change by following the variation in geo-referenced pixel brightness over time with a technique termed temporal texture. Environmental periodicities impart a phenology to the variation in brightness and departures from the norm are easily detected as statistical outliers. This opens the door to using current orbiting technology to efficiently examine large areas of sea for change. If hot spots are detected, higher resolution sensors and field studies can be focused as resources permit. While this technique does not identify the type of change, it is sensitive, simple to compute, easy to automate and grounded in ecological niche theory

  6. Immunohistochemical Detection of Changes in Tumor Hypoxia

    SciTech Connect

    Russell, James Carlin, Sean; Burke, Sean A.; Wen Bixiu; Yang, Kwang Mo; Ling, C. Clifton

    2009-03-15

    Purpose: Although hypoxia is a known prognostic factor, its effect will be modified by the rate of reoxygenation and the extent to which the cells are acutely hypoxic. We tested the ability of exogenous and endogenous markers to detect reoxygenation in a xenograft model. Our technique might be applicable to stored patient samples. Methods and Materials: The human colorectal carcinoma line, HT29, was grown in nude mice. Changes in tumor hypoxia were examined by injection of pimonidazole, followed 24 hours later by EF5. Cryosections were stained for these markers and for carbonic anhydrase IX (CAIX) and hypoxia-inducible factor 1{alpha} (HIF1{alpha}). Tumor hypoxia was artificially manipulated by carbogen exposure. Results: In unstressed tumors, all four markers showed very similar spatial distributions. After carbogen treatment, pimonidazole and EF5 could detect decreased hypoxia. HIF1{alpha} staining was also decreased relative to CAIX, although the effect was less pronounced than for EF5. Control tumors displayed small regions that had undergone spontaneous changes in tumor hypoxia, as judged by pimonidazole relative to EF5; most of these changes were reflected by CAIX and HIF1{alpha}. Conclusion: HIF1{alpha} can be compared with either CAIX or a previously administered nitroimidazole to provide an estimate of reoxygenation.

  7. Lake Chapala change detection using time series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    López-Caloca, Alejandra; Tapia-Silva, Felipe-Omar; Escalante-Ramírez, Boris

    2008-10-01

    The Lake Chapala is the largest natural lake in Mexico. It presents a hydrological imbalance problem caused by diminishing intakes from the Lerma River, pollution from said volumes, native vegetation and solid waste. This article presents a study that allows us to determine with high precision the extent of the affectation in both extension and volume reduction of the Lake Chapala in the period going from 1990 to 2007. Through satellite images this above-mentioned period was monitored. Image segmentation was achieved through a Markov Random Field model, extending the application towards edge detection. This allows adequately defining the lake's limits as well as determining new zones within the lake, both changes pertaining the Lake Chapala. Detected changes are related to a hydrological balance study based on measuring variables such as storage volumes, evapotranspiration and water balance. Results show that the changes in the Lake Chapala establish frail conditions which pose a future risk situation. Rehabilitation of the lake requires a hydrologic balance in its banks and aquifers.

  8. 3D change detection - Approaches and applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qin, Rongjun; Tian, Jiaojiao; Reinartz, Peter

    2016-12-01

    Due to the unprecedented technology development of sensors, platforms and algorithms for 3D data acquisition and generation, 3D spaceborne, airborne and close-range data, in the form of image based, Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) based point clouds, Digital Elevation Models (DEM) and 3D city models, become more accessible than ever before. Change detection (CD) or time-series data analysis in 3D has gained great attention due to its capability of providing volumetric dynamics to facilitate more applications and provide more accurate results. The state-of-the-art CD reviews aim to provide a comprehensive synthesis and to simplify the taxonomy of the traditional remote sensing CD techniques, which mainly sit within the boundary of 2D image/spectrum analysis, largely ignoring the particularities of 3D aspects of the data. The inclusion of 3D data for change detection (termed 3D CD), not only provides a source with different modality for analysis, but also transcends the border of traditional top-view 2D pixel/object-based analysis to highly detailed, oblique view or voxel-based geometric analysis. This paper reviews the recent developments and applications of 3D CD using remote sensing and close-range data, in support of both academia and industry researchers who seek for solutions in detecting and analyzing 3D dynamics of various objects of interest. We first describe the general considerations of 3D CD problems in different processing stages and identify CD types based on the information used, being the geometric comparison and geometric-spectral analysis. We then summarize relevant works and practices in urban, environment, ecology and civil applications, etc. Given the broad spectrum of applications and different types of 3D data, we discuss important issues in 3D CD methods. Finally, we present concluding remarks in algorithmic aspects of 3D CD.

  9. Imaging, object detection, and change detection with a polarized multistatic GPR array

    SciTech Connect

    Beer, N. Reginald; Paglieroni, David W.

    2015-07-21

    A polarized detection system performs imaging, object detection, and change detection factoring in the orientation of an object relative to the orientation of transceivers. The polarized detection system may operate on one of several modes of operation based on whether the imaging, object detection, or change detection is performed separately for each transceiver orientation. In combined change mode, the polarized detection system performs imaging, object detection, and change detection separately for each transceiver orientation, and then combines changes across polarizations. In combined object mode, the polarized detection system performs imaging and object detection separately for each transceiver orientation, and then combines objects across polarizations and performs change detection on the result. In combined image mode, the polarized detection system performs imaging separately for each transceiver orientation, and then combines images across polarizations and performs object detection followed by change detection on the result.

  10. Abrupt increase in east Indonesian rainfall from flooding of the Sunda Shelf ˜9500 years ago

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Griffiths, Michael L.; Drysdale, Russell N.; Gagan, Michael K.; Zhao, Jian-xin; Hellstrom, John C.; Ayliffe, Linda K.; Hantoro, Wahyoe S.

    2013-08-01

    We present a precisely dated, multi-proxy stalagmite record from Liang Luar Cave, Flores (southeast Indonesia) that reveals a rapid increase in Indonesian monsoon rainfall at ˜9.5 ka. A "ramp-fitting" method for detecting statistically significant inflections in a time-series was applied to the stalagmite δ18O, Mg/Ca, and Sr/Ca profiles to quantify the precise timing and magnitude of an abrupt increase in monsoon strength over a period of ˜350 years. Previously published lake-level records from the monsoon-affected Australian interior show a sudden intensification of the Australian monsoon at ˜14 ka. However, our records indicate that monsoon intensification in Flores occured ˜4-5 kyr later. The timing of the monsoon shift in Flores is synchronous with the rapid expansion of rainforest in northeast Australia and regional freshening of the southern Makassar Strait which, under present-day conditions, is sensitive to monsoon variability. The freshening of southern Makassar was coeval with an abrupt ˜1.5 °C cooling in the upper thermocline of the Timor Sea ˜9.5 ka, indicative of reduced surface heat transport by the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) when the Java Sea opened during postglacial sea-level rise. This suggests that the abrupt increase in monsoon rainfall on Flores was not due to a change in the ITF - because a decrease in rainfall would be expected to accompany cooler local sea surface temperatures (SSTs) - but rather by the sudden increase in ocean surface area and/or temperature in the monsoon source region as the Sunda Shelf flooded during deglaciation. We propose that it was the abrupt intensification of the monsoon through the late deglaciation that maintained the subsequent structure of the ITF following the flooding of the Sunda Shelf at ˜9.5 ka.

  11. Detecting past changes of effective population size

    PubMed Central

    Nikolic, Natacha; Chevalet, Claude

    2014-01-01

    Understanding and predicting population abundance is a major challenge confronting scientists. Several genetic models have been developed using microsatellite markers to estimate the present and ancestral effective population sizes. However, to get an overview on the evolution of population requires that past fluctuation of population size be traceable. To address the question, we developed a new model estimating the past changes of effective population size from microsatellite by resolving coalescence theory and using approximate likelihoods in a Monte Carlo Markov Chain approach. The efficiency of the model and its sensitivity to gene flow and to assumptions on the mutational process were checked using simulated data and analysis. The model was found especially useful to provide evidence of transient changes of population size in the past. The times at which some past demographic events cannot be detected because they are too ancient and the risk that gene flow may suggest the false detection of a bottleneck are discussed considering the distribution of coalescence times. The method was applied on real data sets from several Atlantic salmon populations. The method called VarEff (Variation of Effective size) was implemented in the R package VarEff and is made available at https://qgsp.jouy.inra.fr and at http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/VarEff. PMID:25067949

  12. A 2400-year record of abrupt climate change from Almalou Crate Lake in NW Iran: Investigating the potential influence of solar variability on the climate of West Asia during late Holocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharifi, A.; Pourmand, A.; Canuel, E. A.; Naderi Beni, A.; Lahijani, H. A.

    2013-12-01

    The Mediterranean climate of northwest Iran is influenced by mid-latitude Westerlies and the winter expansion of the Siberian Anticyclone. Given the significance of this region in development of human civilizations, high-resolution reconstructions of abrupt climate change are of particular interest during the Holocene. Almalou Crater Lake sustains the growth of plants inside the crater of a dormant volcanic cone on the eastern flank of the Sahand volcanic district in NW Iran. At an elevation of 2491 m.a.s.l., the crater is exclusively fed by rainfall during the spring and fall and snowfall during the winter. Preservation of organic matter within the crater can potentially record changes in atmospheric deposition and paleo-environmental conditions over this region. To reconstruct changes in atmospheric aeolian input, we present a high-resolution (sub-decadal) multi-proxy record of climate variability during the last 2400 years from a 3-m peat core recovered from the crater peat bog. Radiocarbon dates of eight samples along the core show a nearly constant rate of accumulation (7.7 mm yr-1, R2=0.98) since 2404×25 cal yr BP. Downcore X-ray fluorescence measurements of selected conservative lithogenic elements (e.g., Al, Si, and Ti) as well as redox-sensitive elements (e.g., Fe and Rb) at 10 mm intervals reveal several periods of elevated abundances related to enhanced atmospheric dust deposition. The co-variations between relative abundances of conservative and redox-sensitive elements as a function of time show significant agreement and attest to the ombrotrophic nature of the entire record. Intervals of enhanced dust deposition inferred from XRF data reveal three short episodes (~ 150-y) at 450-600, 1150-1300, and 1400-1550 cal yr BP, and one prolonged period (500 y) of dust accumulation from 1600 to 2070 cal yr BP. These intervals of high atmospheric dust coincide with historical records of drought and famine in Iran since 2000 BP. Wavelet analysis conducted on the

  13. Point pattern match-based change detection in a constellation of previously detected objects

    SciTech Connect

    Paglieroni, David W.

    2016-06-07

    A method and system is provided that applies attribute- and topology-based change detection to objects that were detected on previous scans of a medium. The attributes capture properties or characteristics of the previously detected objects, such as location, time of detection, detection strength, size, elongation, orientation, etc. The locations define a three-dimensional network topology forming a constellation of previously detected objects. The change detection system stores attributes of the previously detected objects in a constellation database. The change detection system detects changes by comparing the attributes and topological consistency of newly detected objects encountered during a new scan of the medium to previously detected objects in the constellation database. The change detection system may receive the attributes of the newly detected objects as the objects are detected by an object detection system in real time.

  14. Precipitation and temperature changes in eastern India by multiple trend detection methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharma, Chandra Shekhar; Panda, Sudhindra N.; Pradhan, Rudra P.; Singh, Amanpreet; Kawamura, Akira

    2016-11-01

    The present study deals with spatial and temporal trend analysis of precipitation and temperature (1970-2004) in eastern India. Long-term trend direction and magnitude of change over time (annual and seasonal) were detected and analyzed by Mann-Kendall test, Sen's slope estimator, Least square linear regression, Spearman rank correlation and Sequential Mann-Kendall test. In addition to it, correlation analysis was also performed. Trend analysis of annual rainfall by different methods indicated similar annual trends in eastern India. North-eastern, south-eastern and western parts of eastern India indicated increasing trend, whereas the north-western, central and southern parts showed decreasing trend. A similar trend was observed by different methods in case of seasonal rainfall. During winter season, decreasing trend was observed in the central part, whereas similar results were obtained for pre-and post-monsoon in the western part. The trend during monsoon season was found similar to annual rainfall trend. Abrupt change in trend of rainfall with time was lacking in eastern India. Maximum temperature analysis indicated increasing trend in the western part for all the seasons (except in monsoon) and decreasing trend in the eastern part. On the contrary, increasing trend was observed in the eastern part and decreasing trend in the western half of the study area for all the seasons in case of minimum temperature. Significant changes were observed during monsoon season as compared to other seasons. A decreasing trend in mean temperature was observed in the central, southern and north western parts, whereas it was found to be increasing in the north-eastern, western and south-eastern parts. In majority of the eastern India region, any abrupt change of trend in temperatures with time was not clearly observed. Negative correlation between rainfall and maximum temperature was observed in the entire eastern India. Similar results were observed in case of minimum temperature

  15. Census cities experiment in urban change detection

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wray, J. R. (Principal Investigator)

    1973-01-01

    The author has identified the following significant results. Work continues on mapping of 1970 urban land use from 1970 census contemporaneous aircraft photography. In addition, change detection analysis from 1972 aircraft photography is underway for several urban test sites. Land use maps, mosaics, and census overlays for the two largest urban test sites are nearing publication readiness. Preliminary examinations of ERTS-1 imagery of San Francisco Bay have been conducted which show that tracts of land of more than 10 acres in size which are undergoing development in an urban setting can be identified. In addition, each spectral band is being evaluated as to its utility for urban analyses. It has been found that MSS infrared band 7 helps to differentiate intra-urban land use details not found in other MSS bands or in the RBV coverage of the same scene. Good quality false CIR composites have been generated from 9 x 9 inch positive MSS bands using the Diazo process.

  16. Anticipating abrupt shifts in temporal evolution of probability of eruption

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rohmer, J.; Loschetter, A.

    2016-04-01

    Estimating the probability of eruption by jointly accounting for different sources of monitoring parameters over time is a key component for volcano risk management. In the present study, we are interested in the transition from a state of low-to-moderate probability value to a state of high probability value. By using the data of MESIMEX exercise at the Vesuvius volcano, we investigated the potential for time-varying indicators related to the correlation structure or to the variability of the probability time series for detecting in advance this critical transition. We found that changes in the power spectra and in the standard deviation estimated over a rolling time window both present an abrupt increase, which marks the approaching shift. Our numerical experiments revealed that the transition from an eruption probability of 10-15% to > 70% could be identified up to 1-3 h in advance. This additional lead time could be useful to place different key services (e.g., emergency services for vulnerable groups, commandeering additional transportation means, etc.) on a higher level of alert before the actual call for evacuation.

  17. Anticipating abrupt shifts in temporal evolution of probability of eruption

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rohmer, Jeremy; Loschetter, Annick

    2016-04-01

    Estimating the probability of eruption by jointly accounting for different sources of monitoring parameters over time is a key component for volcano risk management. In the present study, we are interested in the transition from a state of low-to-moderate probability value and to the one of high probability value: the latter value generally supports the call for evacuation. By using the data of MESIMEX exercise at the Vesuvius volcano, we investigated the potential for time-varying indicators related to the correlation structure or to the variability of the probability time series for detecting in advance this critical transition. We found that changes in the power spectra and in the standard deviation estimated over a rolling time window both present an abrupt increase, which marks the approaching shift. Our numerical experiments revealed that the transition from an eruption probability of 10-15% to >70% could be identified up 4 hours in advance, ~2.5 days before the evacuation call (decided for an eruption probability >80% during the MESIMEX exercise). This additional lead time could be useful to place different key services (e.g., emergency services for vulnerable groups, commandeering additional transportation means, etc.) on a higher level of alert before the actual call for evacuation.

  18. Attribute and topology based change detection in a constellation of previously detected objects

    SciTech Connect

    Paglieroni, David W.; Beer, Reginald N.

    2016-01-19

    A system that applies attribute and topology based change detection to networks of objects that were detected on previous scans of a structure, roadway, or area of interest. The attributes capture properties or characteristics of the previously detected objects, such as location, time of detection, size, elongation, orientation, etc. The topology of the network of previously detected objects is maintained in a constellation database that stores attributes of previously detected objects and implicitly captures the geometrical structure of the network. A change detection system detects change by comparing the attributes and topology of new objects detected on the latest scan to the constellation database of previously detected objects.

  19. Change detection experiments using Gotcha public release SAR data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stojanovic, Ivana; Novak, Les

    2013-05-01

    In this paper we compare coherent change detection performance obtained using the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) of the SAR image-pair coherence versus using the complex correlation coefficient coherence estimate (CCD). We also compare the non-coherent change detection performance (PD vs. PFA) versus the performance of the coherent change detection algorithms.

  20. Eye Movements and Display Change Detection during Reading

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Slattery, Timothy J.; Angele, Bernhard; Rayner, Keith

    2011-01-01

    In the boundary change paradigm (Rayner, 1975), when a reader's eyes cross an invisible boundary location, a preview word is replaced by a target word. Readers are generally unaware of such changes due to saccadic suppression. However, some readers detect changes on a few trials and a small percentage of them detect many changes. Two experiments…

  1. Evaluation of change detection techniques for monitoring coastal zone environments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weismiller, R. A.; Kristof, S. J.; Scholz, D. K.; Anuta, P. E.; Momin, S. M.

    1977-01-01

    Development of satisfactory techniques for detecting change in coastal zone environments is required before operational monitoring procedures can be established. In an effort to meet this need a study was directed toward developing and evaluating different types of change detection techniques, based upon computer aided analysis of LANDSAT multispectral scanner (MSS) data, to monitor these environments. The Matagorda Bay estuarine system along the Texas coast was selected as the study area. Four change detection techniques were designed and implemented for evaluation: (1) post classification comparison change detection, (2) delta data change detection, (3) spectral/temporal change classification, and (4) layered spectral/temporal change classification. Each of the four techniques was used to analyze a LANDSAT MSS temporal data set to detect areas of change of the Matagorda Bay region.

  2. Involuntary attentional capture by abrupt onsets

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Remington, Roger W.; Johnston, James C.; Yantis, Steven

    1992-01-01

    Five experiments were carried out to examine the extent to which brief abrupt-onset visual stimuli involuntarily capture spatial attention. A fundumantal limitation on the conscious control of spatial attention is demonstrated. Data obtained reveal conditions under which the control of spatial attention is completely involuntary: attention is captured by an irrelevant event despite subjects' intentions to ignore the event. The paradigm used provided strong incentives to ignore the distracting abrupt onset, but these were insufficient to prevent capture. Results suggest that voluntary control of attention is limited to focusing attention in advance on locations, objects, or properties of interest. Under appropriate conditions, spatial attention can be involantarily drawn to abrupt-onset events despite the intention of subjects' to ignore them.

  3. Hallucinations after abrupt withdrawal of oral and intrathecal baclofen.

    PubMed

    D'Aleo, Giangaetano; Cammaroto, Simona; Rifici, Carmela; Marra, Giuseppe; Sessa, Edoardo; Bramanti, Placido; Di Bella, Paolo

    2007-01-01

    Since 1977 several cases of hallucinations after abrupt withdrawal of oral baclofen have been described. There are no reports of hallucinations after gradual withdrawal of oral baclofen. No one has ever described visual hallucinations after abrupt interruption of intrathecal baclofen therapy. We describe five personally observed cases of visual hallucinations occurring after sudden interruption of baclofen (in two of these cases, intrathecal baclofen) therapy. The patients were immediately submitted to routine EEG, visual evoked potentials and standard brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). A few days later they also underwent polysomnography, fundus oculi examination and brain MRI of the temporal lobe. All these examinations were normal. We hypothesise that these symptoms could be due to biochemical and molecular changes, chiefly in glutamatergic n-methyl-d-aspartate, GABA-A, and GABA-B receptor response, leading to increased excitability and spontaneous activity as a result of chronic use of baclofen.

  4. An International Contrast of Rates of Placental Abruption: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Ananth, Cande V.; Keyes, Katherine M.; Hamilton, Ava; Gissler, Mika; Wu, Chunsen; Liu, Shiliang; Luque-Fernandez, Miguel Angel; Skjærven, Rolv; Williams, Michelle A.; Tikkanen, Minna; Cnattingius, Sven

    2015-01-01

    Background Although rare, placental abruption is implicated in disproportionately high rates of perinatal morbidity and mortality. Understanding geographic and temporal variations may provide insights into possible amenable factors of abruption. We examined abruption frequencies by maternal age, delivery year, and maternal birth cohorts over three decades across seven countries. Methods Women that delivered in the US (n = 863,879; 1979–10), Canada (4 provinces, n = 5,407,463; 1982–11), Sweden (n = 3,266,742; 1978–10), Denmark (n = 1,773,895; 1978–08), Norway (n = 1,780,271, 1978–09), Finland (n = 1,411,867; 1987–10), and Spain (n = 6,151,508; 1999–12) were analyzed. Abruption diagnosis was based on ICD coding. Rates were modeled using Poisson regression within the framework of an age-period-cohort analysis, and multi-level models to examine the contribution of smoking in four countries. Results Abruption rates varied across the seven countries (3–10 per 1000), Maternal age showed a consistent J-shaped pattern with increased rates at the extremes of the age distribution. In comparison to births in 2000, births after 2000 in European countries had lower abruption rates; in the US there was an increase in rate up to 2000 and a plateau thereafter. No birth cohort effects were evident. Changes in smoking prevalence partially explained the period effect in the US (P = 0.01) and Sweden (P<0.01). Conclusions There is a strong maternal age effect on abruption. While the abruption rate has plateaued since 2000 in the US, all other countries show declining rates. These findings suggest considerable variation in abruption frequencies across countries; differences in the distribution of risk factors, especially smoking, may help guide policy to reduce abruption rates. PMID:26018653

  5. Detecting holocene changes in thermohaline circulation.

    PubMed

    Keigwin, L D; Boyle, E A

    2000-02-15

    Throughout the last glacial cycle, reorganizations of deep ocean water masses were coincident with rapid millennial-scale changes in climate. Climate changes have been less severe during the present interglacial, but evidence for concurrent deep ocean circulation change is ambiguous.

  6. Change Detection in Naturalistic Pictures among Children with Autism

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burack, Jacob A.; Joseph, Shari; Russo, Natalie; Shore, David I.; Porporino, Mafalda; Enns, James T.

    2009-01-01

    Persons with autism often show strong reactions to changes in the environment, suggesting that they may detect changes more efficiently than typically developing (TD) persons. However, Fletcher-Watson et al. (Br J Psychol 97:537-554, 2006) reported no differences between adults with autism and TD adults with a change-detection task. In this study,…

  7. Epigenetic changes detected in micropropagated hop plants.

    PubMed

    Peredo, Elena L; Arroyo-García, Rosa; Revilla, M Angeles

    2009-07-01

    Micropropagation is a widely used technique in hops (Humulus lupulus L.). However, to the best of our knowledge, the genetic and epigenetic stability of the microplants has never been tested before. In the present study, two hop accessions were established in vitro and micropropagated for 2 years. The genetic and epigenetic stability of the in vitro plants was analyzed with several molecular techniques: random amplified DNA polymorphism (RAPD), retrotransposon microsatellite amplified polymorphism (REMAP), and methylation-sensitive amplification polymorphism (MSAP). No genetic variation among control and treated plants was found, even after 12 cycles of micropropagation. Epigenetic variation was detected, first, when field and in vitro samples were compared. Nearly a 30% of the detected fragments presented the same pattern of alterations in all the vitroplants. Second, lower levels of epigenetic variation were detected among plants from the different subcultures. Part of this detected variation seemed to be accumulated along the 12 sequential subcultures tested.

  8. Urban change detection procedures using Landsat digital data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jensen, J. R.; Toll, D. L.

    1982-01-01

    Landsat multispectral scanner data was applied to an urban change detection problem in Denver, CO. A dichotomous key yielding ten stages of residential development at the urban fringe was developed. This heuristic model allowed one to identify certain stages of development which are difficult to detect when performing digital change detection using Landsat data. The stages of development were evaluated in terms of their spectral and derived textural characteristics. Landsat band 5 (0.6-0.7 micron) and texture data produced change detection maps which were approximately 81 percent accurate. Results indicated that the stage of development and the spectral/textural features affect the change in the spectral values used for change detection. These preliminary findings will hopefully prove valuable for improved change detection at the urban fringe.

  9. Spinal Surgery and Abrupt Intrathecal Baclofen Withdrawal.

    PubMed

    Zheng, Karl; Brodsky, Jay B

    2015-11-01

    Abrupt cessation of intrathecal baclofen can lead to a serious withdrawal syndrome. The anesthesiologist must be prepared to avoid intraoperative interruption of baclofen delivery before starting spinal surgery and to recognize and treat the symptoms of baclofen withdrawal in the immediate postoperative period.

  10. Occupancy change detection system and method

    SciTech Connect

    Bruemmer, David J; Few, Douglas A

    2009-09-01

    A robot platform includes perceptors, locomotors, and a system controller. The system controller executes instructions for producing an occupancy grid map of an environment around the robot, scanning the environment to generate a current obstacle map relative to a current robot position, and converting the current obstacle map to a current occupancy grid map. The instructions also include processing each grid cell in the occupancy grid map. Within the processing of each grid cell, the instructions include comparing each grid cell in the occupancy grid map to a corresponding grid cell in the current occupancy grid map. For grid cells with a difference, the instructions include defining a change vector for each changed grid cell, wherein the change vector includes a direction from the robot to the changed grid cell and a range from the robot to the changed grid cell.

  11. A Dual-Process Account of Auditory Change Detection

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McAnally, Ken I.; Martin, Russell L.; Eramudugolla, Ranmalee; Stuart, Geoffrey W.; Irvine, Dexter R. F.; Mattingley, Jason B.

    2010-01-01

    Listeners can be "deaf" to a substantial change in a scene comprising multiple auditory objects unless their attention has been directed to the changed object. It is unclear whether auditory change detection relies on identification of the objects in pre- and post-change scenes. We compared the rates at which listeners correctly identify changed…

  12. Load and Rate of Change of Load Detection System.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    The present invention relates to a system for detecting and recording the level and rate of change of landing loads in the struts of aircraft landing...to a minimum pressure to record the level and rate of change of pressure detected by the sensor.

  13. Comparing Several Algorithms for Change Detection of Wetland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yan, F.; Zhang, S.; Chang, L.

    2015-12-01

    As "the kidneys of the landscape" and "ecological supermarkets", wetland plays an important role in ecological equilibrium and environmental protection.Therefore, it is of great significance to understand the dynamic changes of the wetland. Nowadays, many index and many methods have been used in dynamic Monitoring of Wetland. However, there are no single method and no single index are adapted to detect dynamic change of wetland all over the world. In this paper, three digital change detection algorithms are applied to 2005 and 2010 Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) images of a portion of the Northeast China to detect wetland dynamic between the two dates. The change vector analysis method (CVA) uses 6 bands of TM images to detect wetland dynamic. The tassled cap transformation is used to create three change images (change in brightness, greenness, and wetness). A new method--- Comprehensive Change Detection Method (CCDM) is introduced to detect forest dynamic change. The CCDM integrates spectral-based change detection algorithms including a Multi-Index Integrated Change Analysis (MIICA) model and a novel change model called Zone, which extracts change information from two Landsat image pairs. The MIICA model is the core module of the change detection strategy and uses four spectral indices (differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR), differenced Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (dNDVI), the Change Vector (CV) and a new index called the Relative Change Vector Maximum (RCVMAX)) to obtain the changes that occurred between two image dates. The CCDM also includes a knowledge-based system, which uses critical information on historical and current land cover conditions and trends and the likelihood of land cover change, to combine the changes from MIICA and Zone. Related test proved that CCDM method is simple, easy to operate, widely applicable, and capable of capturing a variety of natural and anthropogenic disturbances potentially associated with land cover changes on

  14. Change Detection in Rough Time Series

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-09-01

    support models. While at DSTO he has worked on applications for modelling strategic decisions, intelligence analysis, and decision support systems ...changing nature of expected droughts into the future thus indicates increasing stress on the MDB river and lake system such that pre-existing irrigation ...or inaccurate sensor data, subjective ratings of vague variables, imperfect intelligence reports, algorithmic derived measures indicating degrees

  15. Abruptness of Cascade Failures in Power Grids

    PubMed Central

    Pahwa, Sakshi; Scoglio, Caterina; Scala, Antonio

    2014-01-01

    Electric power-systems are one of the most important critical infrastructures. In recent years, they have been exposed to extreme stress due to the increasing demand, the introduction of distributed renewable energy sources, and the development of extensive interconnections. We investigate the phenomenon of abrupt breakdown of an electric power-system under two scenarios: load growth (mimicking the ever-increasing customer demand) and power fluctuations (mimicking the effects of renewable sources). Our results on real, realistic and synthetic networks indicate that increasing the system size causes breakdowns to become more abrupt; in fact, mapping the system to a solvable statistical-physics model indicates the occurrence of a first order transition in the large size limit. Such an enhancement for the systemic risk failures (black-outs) with increasing network size is an effect that should be considered in the current projects aiming to integrate national power-grids into “super-grids”. PMID:24424239

  16. Abruptness of cascade failures in power grids.

    PubMed

    Pahwa, Sakshi; Scoglio, Caterina; Scala, Antonio

    2014-01-15

    Electric power-systems are one of the most important critical infrastructures. In recent years, they have been exposed to extreme stress due to the increasing demand, the introduction of distributed renewable energy sources, and the development of extensive interconnections. We investigate the phenomenon of abrupt breakdown of an electric power-system under two scenarios: load growth (mimicking the ever-increasing customer demand) and power fluctuations (mimicking the effects of renewable sources). Our results on real, realistic and synthetic networks indicate that increasing the system size causes breakdowns to become more abrupt; in fact, mapping the system to a solvable statistical-physics model indicates the occurrence of a first order transition in the large size limit. Such an enhancement for the systemic risk failures (black-outs) with increasing network size is an effect that should be considered in the current projects aiming to integrate national power-grids into "super-grids".

  17. Synthetic circuit for exact adaptation and fold-change detection.

    PubMed

    Kim, Jongmin; Khetarpal, Ishan; Sen, Shaunak; Murray, Richard M

    2014-05-01

    Biological organisms use their sensory systems to detect changes in their environment. The ability of sensory systems to adapt to static inputs allows wide dynamic range as well as sensitivity to input changes including fold-change detection, a response that depends only on fold changes in input, and not on absolute changes. This input scale invariance underlies an important strategy for search that depends solely on the spatial profile of the input. Synthetic efforts to reproduce the architecture and response of cellular circuits provide an important step to foster understanding at the molecular level. We report the bottom-up assembly of biochemical systems that show exact adaptation and fold-change detection. Using a malachite green aptamer as the output, a synthetic transcriptional circuit with the connectivity of an incoherent feed-forward loop motif exhibits pulse generation and exact adaptation. A simple mathematical model was used to assess the amplitude and duration of pulse response as well as the parameter regimes required for fold-change detection. Upon parameter tuning, this synthetic circuit exhibits fold-change detection for four successive rounds of two-fold input changes. The experimental realization of fold-change detection circuit highlights the programmability of transcriptional switches and the ability to obtain predictive dynamical systems in a cell-free environment for technological applications.

  18. Synthetic circuit for exact adaptation and fold-change detection

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Jongmin; Khetarpal, Ishan; Murray, Richard M.

    2014-01-01

    Biological organisms use their sensory systems to detect changes in their environment. The ability of sensory systems to adapt to static inputs allows wide dynamic range as well as sensitivity to input changes including fold-change detection, a response that depends only on fold changes in input, and not on absolute changes. This input scale invariance underlies an important strategy for search that depends solely on the spatial profile of the input. Synthetic efforts to reproduce the architecture and response of cellular circuits provide an important step to foster understanding at the molecular level. We report the bottom-up assembly of biochemical systems that show exact adaptation and fold-change detection. Using a malachite green aptamer as the output, a synthetic transcriptional circuit with the connectivity of an incoherent feed-forward loop motif exhibits pulse generation and exact adaptation. A simple mathematical model was used to assess the amplitude and duration of pulse response as well as the parameter regimes required for fold-change detection. Upon parameter tuning, this synthetic circuit exhibits fold-change detection for four successive rounds of two-fold input changes. The experimental realization of fold-change detection circuit highlights the programmability of transcriptional switches and the ability to obtain predictive dynamical systems in a cell-free environment for technological applications. PMID:24728988

  19. One new method for road data shape change detection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, Luliang; Li, Qingquan; Xu, Feng; Chang, Xiaomeng

    2009-10-01

    Similarity is a psychological cognition; this paper defines the Difference Distance and puts forward the Similarity Measuring Model for linear spatial data (SMM-L) based on the integration of the Distance View and the Feature Set View which are the views for similarity cognition. Based on the study of the relationship between the spatial data change and the similarity, a change detection algorithm for linear spatial data is developed, and a test on road data change detection is realized.

  20. Compact bending sensor based on a fiber Bragg grating in an abrupt biconical taper.

    PubMed

    Cui, Wei; Si, Jinhai; Chen, Tao; Hou, Xun

    2015-05-04

    We propose and experimentally demonstrate a compact bending sensor. The head of the sensor is only 0.8 mm in length, and consists of an abrupt biconical fiber taper formed using a conventional fusion splicer, in which a fiber Bragg grating (FBG) is inscribed using a femtosecond laser. The biconical taper incorporating the FBG can couple light from the cladding to the backward-propagating core mode, which realizes an interferometer in reflection-mode. Bending of the structure can be detected from the contrast change of interference fringes. A configuration to measure curvature is investigated to demonstrate the sensing characteristics. The temperature cross-sensitivity of the sensor is studied, and the results demonstrate that it is insensitive to temperature.

  1. Gradual onset and recovery of the Younger Dryas abrupt climate event in the tropics

    PubMed Central

    Partin, J.W.; Quinn, T.M.; Shen, C.-C.; Okumura, Y.; Cardenas, M.B.; Siringan, F.P.; Banner, J.L.; Lin, K.; Hu, H.-M.; Taylor, F.W.

    2015-01-01

    Proxy records of temperature from the Atlantic clearly show that the Younger Dryas was an abrupt climate change event during the last deglaciation, but records of hydroclimate are underutilized in defining the event. Here we combine a new hydroclimate record from Palawan, Philippines, in the tropical Pacific, with previously published records to highlight a difference between hydroclimate and temperature responses to the Younger Dryas. Although the onset and termination are synchronous across the records, tropical hydroclimate changes are more gradual (>100 years) than the abrupt (10–100 years) temperature changes in the northern Atlantic Ocean. The abrupt recovery of Greenland temperatures likely reflects changes in regional sea ice extent. Proxy data and transient climate model simulations support the hypothesis that freshwater forced a reduction in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, thereby causing the Younger Dryas. However, changes in ocean overturning may not produce the same effects globally as in Greenland. PMID:26329911

  2. Gradual onset and recovery of the Younger Dryas abrupt climate event in the tropics.

    PubMed

    Partin, J W; Quinn, T M; Shen, C-C; Okumura, Y; Cardenas, M B; Siringan, F P; Banner, J L; Lin, K; Hu, H-M; Taylor, F W

    2015-09-02

    Proxy records of temperature from the Atlantic clearly show that the Younger Dryas was an abrupt climate change event during the last deglaciation, but records of hydroclimate are underutilized in defining the event. Here we combine a new hydroclimate record from Palawan, Philippines, in the tropical Pacific, with previously published records to highlight a difference between hydroclimate and temperature responses to the Younger Dryas. Although the onset and termination are synchronous across the records, tropical hydroclimate changes are more gradual (>100 years) than the abrupt (10-100 years) temperature changes in the northern Atlantic Ocean. The abrupt recovery of Greenland temperatures likely reflects changes in regional sea ice extent. Proxy data and transient climate model simulations support the hypothesis that freshwater forced a reduction in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, thereby causing the Younger Dryas. However, changes in ocean overturning may not produce the same effects globally as in Greenland.

  3. Gradual onset and recovery of the Younger Dryas abrupt climate event in the tropics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Partin, J. W.; Quinn, T. M.; Shen, C.-C.; Okumura, Y.; Cardenas, M. B.; Siringan, F. P.; Banner, J. L.; Lin, K.; Hu, H.-M.; Taylor, F. W.

    2015-09-01

    Proxy records of temperature from the Atlantic clearly show that the Younger Dryas was an abrupt climate change event during the last deglaciation, but records of hydroclimate are underutilized in defining the event. Here we combine a new hydroclimate record from Palawan, Philippines, in the tropical Pacific, with previously published records to highlight a difference between hydroclimate and temperature responses to the Younger Dryas. Although the onset and termination are synchronous across the records, tropical hydroclimate changes are more gradual (>100 years) than the abrupt (10-100 years) temperature changes in the northern Atlantic Ocean. The abrupt recovery of Greenland temperatures likely reflects changes in regional sea ice extent. Proxy data and transient climate model simulations support the hypothesis that freshwater forced a reduction in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, thereby causing the Younger Dryas. However, changes in ocean overturning may not produce the same effects globally as in Greenland.

  4. New evidence from the South China Sea for an abrupt termination of the last glacial period

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Broecker, W. S.; Klas, M.; Andree, M.; Bonani, G.; Wolfli, W.

    1988-01-01

    Results demonstrating an abrupt change in the rate and character of sedimentation in the South China Sea at the close of the last glacial period are presented. Radiocarbon dating and its position in the oxygen isotope shift suggest that this change may be coincident with the abrupt change in climatic conditions seen at high latitudes in the North Atlantic and the Antarctic at 13 kyr BP. These results support the contention that a major global climatic change occurred between 14 and 13 kyr BP.

  5. Improved change detection with local co-registration adjustments

    SciTech Connect

    Wohlberg, Brendt E; Theiler, James P

    2009-01-01

    We introduce a simple approach for compensating for residual misregistration error on the performance of anomalous change detection algorithms. Using real data with a simulation framework for anomalous change and with a real anomalous change, we illustrate the approach and investigate its effectiveness.

  6. Abrupt or not abrupt - biodiversity affects climate-vegetation interaction at the end of the African Humid Period

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Claussen, Martin; Bathiany, Sebastian; Brovkin, Victor; Kleinen, Thomas

    2014-05-01

    Palaeo-climate and ecosystem data derived from the sediment record from Lake Yoa (Ounianga Kebir, North-East Tchad) have been interpreted as support for a weak interaction between climate and vegetation without abrupt changes in precipitation climate and vegetation coverage over the last 6000 years. However, interpretation of these data has neglected potential effects of plant diversity on the stability of the climate - vegetation system. Here, we use a conceptual model that represents plant diversity in terms of moisture requirement; some plant types are sensitive to changes in precipitation thereby leading to an unstable system with the possibility of abrupt changes, while other plant types are more resilient with gradual system changes. We demonstrate that plant diversity tends to attenuate the instability of the interaction between climate and sensitive plant types, while it reduces the stability of the interaction between climate and less sensitive plant types. Hence, despite large sensitivities of individual plant types to precipitation, a gradual decline in precipitation and mean vegetation cover can occur. The present study offers a new interpretation for reconstructed shifts in vegetation and climate in northern Africa at the end of the African Humid Period. It focusses on the ecosystems in semi-arid climate, but the principle that plant diversity can affect the stability of climate-vegetation interaction may generally apply.

  7. Relative Saliency in Change Signals Affects Perceptual Comparison and Decision Processes in Change Detection

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yang, Cheng-Ta

    2011-01-01

    Change detection requires perceptual comparison and decision processes on different features of multiattribute objects. How relative salience between two feature-changes influences the processes has not been addressed. This study used the systems factorial technology to investigate the processes when detecting changes in a Gabor patch with visual…

  8. Land Cover Change Detection Using Saliency Andwavelet Transformation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Haopeng; Jiang, Zhiguo; Cheng, Yan

    2016-06-01

    How to obtain accurate difference map remains an open challenge in change detection. To tackle this problem, we propose a change detection method based on saliency detection and wavelet transformation. We do frequency-tuned saliency detection in initial difference image (IDI) obtained by logarithm ratio to get a salient difference image (SDI). Then, we calculate local entropy of SDI to obtain an entropic salient difference image (ESDI). The final difference image (FDI) is the wavelet fusion of IDI and ESDI, and Otsu thresholding is used to extract difference map from FDI. Experimental results validate the effectiveness and feasibility.

  9. Detecting data and schema changes in scientific documents

    SciTech Connect

    Adiwijaya, I; Critchlow, T; Musick, R

    1999-06-08

    Data stored in a data warehouse must be kept consistent and up-to-date with the underlying information sources. By providing the capability to identify, categorize and detect changes in these sources, only the modified data needs to be transferred and entered into the warehouse. Another alternative, periodically reloading from scratch, is obviously inefficient. When the schema of an information source changes, all components that interact with, or make use of, data originating from that source must be updated to conform to the new schema. In this paper, the authors present an approach to detecting data and schema changes in scientific documents. Scientific data is of particular interest because it is normally stored as semi-structured documents, and it incurs frequent schema updates. They address the change detection problem by detecting data and schema changes between two versions of the same semi-structured document. This paper presents a graph representation of semi-structured documents and their schema before describing their approach to detecting changes while parsing the document. It also discusses how analysis of a collection of schema changes obtained from comparing several individual can be used to detect complex schema changes.

  10. Detection of light transformations and concomitant changes in surface albedo.

    PubMed

    Gerhard, Holly E; Maloney, Laurence T

    2010-07-16

    We report two experiments demonstrating that (1) observers are sensitive to information about changes in the light field not captured by local scene statistics and that (2) they can use this information to enhance detection of changes in surface albedo. Observers viewed scenes consisting of matte surfaces at many orientations illuminated by a collimated light source. All surfaces were achromatic, all lights neutral. In the first experiment, observers attempted to discriminate small changes in direction of the collimated light source (light transformations) from matched changes in the albedos of all surfaces (non-light transformations). Light changes and non-light changes shared the same local scene statistics and edge ratios, but the latter were not consistent with any change in direction to the collimated source. We found that observers could discriminate light changes as small as 5 degrees with sensitivity d' > 1 and accurately judge the direction of change. In a second experiment, we measured observers' ability to detect a change in the surface albedo of an isolated surface patch during either a light change or a surface change. Observers were more accurate in detecting isolated albedo changes during light changes. Measures of sensitivity d' were more than twice as great.

  11. Detection and Attribution of Regional Climate Change

    SciTech Connect

    Bala, G; Mirin, A

    2007-01-19

    We developed a high resolution global coupled modeling capability to perform breakthrough studies of the regional climate change. The atmospheric component in our simulation uses a 1{sup o} latitude x 1.25{sup o} longitude grid which is the finest resolution ever used for the NCAR coupled climate model CCSM3. Substantial testing and slight retuning was required to get an acceptable control simulation. The major accomplishment is the validation of this new high resolution configuration of CCSM3. There are major improvements in our simulation of the surface wind stress and sea ice thickness distribution in the Arctic. Surface wind stress and ocean circulation in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current are also improved. Our results demonstrate that the FV version of the CCSM coupled model is a state of the art climate model whose simulation capabilities are in the class of those used for IPCC assessments. We have also provided 1000 years of model data to Scripps Institution of Oceanography to estimate the natural variability of stream flow in California. In the future, our global model simulations will provide boundary data to high-resolution mesoscale model that will be used at LLNL. The mesoscale model would dynamically downscale the GCM climate to regional scale on climate time scales.

  12. Attending to faces: change detection, familiarization, and inversion effects.

    PubMed

    Barton, Jason J S; Deepak, Shaunak; Malik, Numaan

    2003-01-01

    We tested detection of changes to eye position, eye color (brightness), mouth position, and mouth color in frontal views of faces. Two faces were presented sequentially for 555 ms each, with a blank screen of 120 ms separating the two. Faces were presented either both upright or both inverted. Measures of detection (d') were calculated for several different degrees of change for each of the four dimensions of change. We first compared results to an earlier experiment that used an oddity design, in which subjects indicated which of three simultaneously viewed and otherwise identical faces had been altered on one of these four dimensions. Subjects in both of these experiments were partially cued, in that they knew the four possible types of changes that could occur on a given trial. The change-detection results correlated well with the oddity data. They confirmed that face inversion had little effect upon detection of changes in eye color, a moderate effect upon detection of eye-position or mouth-color changes, and caused a drastic reduction in the detection of mouth-position changes. An experiment in which uncued and fully cued subjects were compared showed that cueing significantly improved detection of feature color changes, but there was little difference between upright and inverted faces. Full cueing eliminated all effects of inversion. Compared to partial cueing, changes in mouth color were poorly detected by uncued subjects. Last, a change in the frequency of the base (unaltered) face in an experiment from 75% to 40% showed that increased short-term familiarity decreased the detection of eye changes and increased the detection of mouth changes, regardless of face orientation and the type of change made (color or position). We conclude that uncued subjects encode the spatial relations of features more than the colors of features, that mouth color in particular is not considered a relevant dimension for encoding, and that familiarization redistributes attention

  13. Classification of change detection and change blindness from near-infrared spectroscopy signals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tanaka, Hirokazu; Katura, Takusige

    2011-08-01

    Using a machine-learning classification algorithm applied to near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) signals, we classify a success (change detection) or a failure (change blindness) in detecting visual changes for a change-detection task. Five subjects perform a change-detection task, and their brain activities are continuously monitored. A support-vector-machine algorithm is applied to classify the change-detection and change-blindness trials, and correct classification probability of 70-90% is obtained for four subjects. Two types of temporal shapes in classification probabilities are found: one exhibiting a maximum value after the task is completed (postdictive type), and another exhibiting a maximum value during the task (predictive type). As for the postdictive type, the classification probability begins to increase immediately after the task completion and reaches its maximum in about the time scale of neuronal hemodynamic response, reflecting a subjective report of change detection. As for the predictive type, the classification probability shows an increase at the task initiation and is maximal while subjects are performing the task, predicting the task performance in detecting a change. We conclude that decoding change detection and change blindness from NIRS signal is possible and argue some future applications toward brain-machine interfaces.

  14. Theoretical basis for predicting climate-induced abrupt shifts in the oceans

    PubMed Central

    Beaugrand, Gregory

    2015-01-01

    Among the responses of marine species and their ecosystems to climate change, abrupt community shifts (ACSs), also called regime shifts, have often been observed. However, despite their effects for ecosystem functioning and both provisioning and regulating services, our understanding of the underlying mechanisms involved remains elusive. This paper proposes a theory showing that some ACSs originate from the interaction between climate-induced environmental changes and the species ecological niche. The theory predicts that a substantial stepwise shift in the thermal regime of a marine ecosystem leads indubitably to an ACS and explains why some species do not change during the phenomenon. It also explicates why the timing of ACSs may differ or why some studies may detect or not detect a shift in the same ecosystem, independently of the statistical method of detection and simply because they focus on different species or taxonomic groups. The present theory offers a way to predict future climate-induced community shifts and their potential associated trophic cascades and amplifications.

  15. On-the-fly detection of changes on and below the surface in epithelium mucosal tissue architecture from scattered light.

    PubMed

    Cohen, Fernand S; Taslidere, Ezgi; Murthy, Sreekant

    2011-04-01

    In this paper we present a technique to raise a flag on the fly when a transition occurs between different mucosal architectures on or below the surface. The segmentation is based on a novel difference metric for detecting an abrupt change in the parameters extracted from a Stochastic Decomposition Method (SDM) that models the scattered light reflected from the mucosal tissue structure over an area (2-D scan) illuminated by an optical sensor (fiber) emitting light at either one wavelength or with white light. This work has the potential to enhance the endoscopist's ability to locate and identify abnormal mucosal architectures in particular when the disease is developing below the surface and hence becoming hidden during colonoscopy or endoscopic examination. It also has also potential in helping deciding as to when and where to take biopsies; steps that should lead to improvement in the diagnostic yield.

  16. Spatial Temporal Land Use Change Detection Using Google Earth Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wibowo, Adi; Osman Salleh, Khairulmaini; Sitanala Frans, F. Th. R.; Mulyo Semedi, Jarot

    2016-11-01

    Land use as representation of human activities had different type. Human activity needs land for home, food, school, work, and leisure. Land use changed depends on human activity in the world within spatial and temporal term. This study aims to identify land use change using Google Earth data spatially and temporally. To answer the aim of this research, Google Earth data within five-year used for the analysis. This technique use for detection and mapping the land use change. The result saw the spatial-temporal land use change each year. This result addressed very importance of Google Earth Data as spatial temporal land use detection for land use mapping.

  17. Acoustic change detection algorithm using an FM radio

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goldman, Geoffrey H.; Wolfe, Owen

    2012-06-01

    The U.S. Army is interested in developing low-cost, low-power, non-line-of-sight sensors for monitoring human activity. One modality that is often overlooked is active acoustics using sources of opportunity such as speech or music. Active acoustics can be used to detect human activity by generating acoustic images of an area at different times, then testing for changes among the imagery. A change detection algorithm was developed to detect physical changes in a building, such as a door changing positions or a large box being moved using acoustics sources of opportunity. The algorithm is based on cross correlating the acoustic signal measured from two microphones. The performance of the algorithm was shown using data generated with a hand-held FM radio as a sound source and two microphones. The algorithm could detect a door being opened in a hallway.

  18. Fast Change Point Detection for Electricity Market Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Berkeley, UC; Gu, William; Choi, Jaesik; Gu, Ming; Simon, Horst; Wu, Kesheng

    2013-08-25

    Electricity is a vital part of our daily life; therefore it is important to avoid irregularities such as the California Electricity Crisis of 2000 and 2001. In this work, we seek to predict anomalies using advanced machine learning algorithms. These algorithms are effective, but computationally expensive, especially if we plan to apply them on hourly electricity market data covering a number of years. To address this challenge, we significantly accelerate the computation of the Gaussian Process (GP) for time series data. In the context of a Change Point Detection (CPD) algorithm, we reduce its computational complexity from O($n^{5}$) to O($n^{2}$). Our efficient algorithm makes it possible to compute the Change Points using the hourly price data from the California Electricity Crisis. By comparing the detected Change Points with known events, we show that the Change Point Detection algorithm is indeed effective in detecting signals preceding major events.

  19. Detection of Greenhouse-Gas-Induced Climatic Change

    SciTech Connect

    Jones, P.D.; Wigley, T.M.L.

    1998-05-26

    The objective of this report is to assemble and analyze instrumental climate data and to develop and apply climate models as a basis for (1) detecting greenhouse-gas-induced climatic change, and (2) validation of General Circulation Models.

  20. Electrophysiological evidence for different types of change detection and change blindness.

    PubMed

    Busch, Niko A; Fründ, Ingo; Herrmann, Christoph S

    2010-08-01

    Numerous studies have demonstrated that observers often fail to notice large changes in visual scenes, a phenomenon known as change blindness. Some experiments have suggested that phenomenological experience in change blindness experiments is more diverse than the common distinction between change detection and change blindness allows to resolve. Recently, it has been debated whether changes in visual scenes can be detected ("sensed") without a corresponding perception of the changing object ("seeing") and whether these phenomena build on fundamentally different perceptual processes. The present study investigated whether phenomenologically different perceptual processes such as sensing and seeing rely on different or similar neural processes. We studied ERP effects of visual change processing (as compared to change blindness) when observers merely detected the presence of a change ("sensing") and when they identified the changing object in addition to detection ("seeing"). Although the visual awareness negativity (VAN)/selection negativity was similar for detection with and without identification, a change-related positivity and the N2pc contralateral to changes were found exclusively when the change was fully identified. This finding indicates that change identification requires perceptual and neural processes that are not involved in mere detection. In a second experiment, we demonstrated that the VAN and N2pc effects are similar to effects of selective attention in a visual search task. By contrast, the change-related positivity was specific for conscious processing of visual changes. The results suggest that changes can be detected ("sensed") without perception of the changing object. Furthermore, sensing and seeing seem to rely on different neural processes and seem to constitute different types of visual perception. These findings bear implications for how different categories of visual awareness are related to different stages in visual processing.

  1. A SAR ATR algorithm based on coherent change detection

    SciTech Connect

    Harmony, D.W.

    2000-12-01

    This report discusses an automatic target recognition (ATR) algorithm for synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery that is based on coherent change detection techniques. The algorithm relies on templates created from training data to identify targets. Objects are identified or rejected as targets by comparing their SAR signatures with templates using the same complex correlation scheme developed for coherent change detection. Preliminary results are presented in addition to future recommendations.

  2. A Generalizable Hierarchical Bayesian Model for Persistent SAR Change Detection

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-04-01

    6] K. Ranney and M. Soumekh, “Signal subspace change detection in averaged multilook sar imagery,” Geoscience and Remote Sensing, IEEE Transactions on...A Generalizable Hierarchical Bayesian Model for Persistent SAR Change Detection Gregory E. Newstadta, Edmund G. Zelniob, and Alfred O. Hero IIIa...Base, OH, 45433, USA ABSTRACT This paper proposes a hierarchical Bayesian model for multiple-pass, multiple antenna synthetic aperture radar ( SAR

  3. Diffusion Geometry Based Nonlinear Methods for Hyperspectral Change Detection

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-05-12

    Schaum and A. Stocker, “Hyperspectral change detection and supervised matched filtering based on covariance equalization,” Proceedings of the SPIE, vol...5425, pp. 77- 90 (2004). 10. A. Schaum and A. Stocker, “Linear chromodynamics models for hyperspectral target detection,” Proceedings of the IEEE...Aerospace Conference (February 2003). 11. A. Schaum and A. Stocker, “Linear chromodynamics models for hyperspectral target detection

  4. Signal detection using change point analysis in postmarket surveillance†

    PubMed Central

    Xu, Zhiheng; Kass-Hout, Taha; Anderson-Smits, Colin; Gray, Gerry

    2015-01-01

    Purpose Signal detection methods have been used extensively in postmarket surveillance to identify elevated risks of adverse events associated with medical products (drugs, vaccines, and devices). However, current popular disproportionality methods ignore useful information such as trends when the data are aggregated over time for signal detection. Methods In this paper, we applied change point analysis (CPA) to trend analysis of medical products in a spontaneous adverse event reporting system. CPA was used to detect the time point at which statistical properties of a sequence of observations change over time. Two CPA approaches, change in mean and change in variance, were demonstrated by an example using neurostimulator adverse event dataset. Results Two significant change points associated with upward trends were detected in June 2008 (n = 20, p < 0.001) and May 2011 (n = 51, p = 0.003). Further investigation confirmed battery issues and expansion of the indication for use could be possible causes for the occurrence of these change points. Two time points showed extremely low number of loss of therapy events, two cases in October 2009 and three in November 2009, which could be the result of reporting issues such as underreporting. Conclusion As a complimentary tool to current signal detection efforts at FDA, CPA can be used to detect changes in the association between medical products and adverse events over time. Detecting these changes could be critical for public health regulation, adverse events surveillance, product recalls, and regulators’ understanding of the connection between adverse events and other events regarding regulated products. © 2015 The Authors. Pharmacoepidemiology and Drug Safety published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:25903221

  5. Vegetation cover change detection in Chamela-Cuixamala, Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De la Barreda Bautista, Betsabé; López-Caloca, Alejandra A.

    2009-09-01

    In Mexico, and everywhere else, the ecosystems are constantly changing either by natural factors or anthropogenic activity. Remote sensing has been a key tool to monitoring these changes throughout history and also to understanding the ecological dynamics. Hence, sustainable development plans have been created in order to improve the decisionmaking process; thus, this paper analyses deforestation impact in a very important natural resourcing area in Mexico, considering land cover changes. The study area is located in the coast of Jalisco, Mexico, where deforestation and fragmentation as well as high speed touristic development have been the causes of enormous biodiversity losses; the Chamela-Cuixamala Biosphere Reserve is located within this area. It has great species richness and vast endemism. The exploitation of this biome is widespread all over the country and it has already had an impact in the reserve. The change detection multi-temporal study uses Landsat satellite imagery during the 1970-2003 time period. Thus, the objective of change detection analysis is to detect and localize environmental changes through time. The change detection method consists in producing an image of change likelihood (by post-classification, multivariate alteration detection) and thresholding it in order to produce the change map. Experimental results confirmed that the patterns of land use and land cover changes have increased significantly over the last decade. This study also analyzes the deforestation impact on biodiversity. The analysis validation was carried out using field and statistic data. Spatial-temporal changing range enables the analysis of the structural and dynamic effects on the ecosystem and it enhances better decision-making and public environmental policies to decrease or eliminate deforestation, the creation of natural protected areas as a biodiversity conservation method, and counteracting the global warming phenomena.

  6. Detection of Changes on and below the Surface in Epithelium Mucosal Tissue Structure using Scattered Light

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taslidere, Ezgi

    The aim of this work is to answer the question of whether it is possible to detect changes on and below the surface in epithelium tissue structure using light reflected from the tissue over an area (2-D scan) illuminated by an optical sensor (fiber) emitting light at either one wavelength or with white light. Towards that end we model the 2-D reflected scans using a Stochastic Decomposition Method (SDM). The emphasis in this work is on the novelty of the proposed model and its theoretical pinning and foundation. The model is biologically motivated by the stochastic textural nature of the tissue. We model the textural content (which relates to tissue morphology) that manifests itself in the 2-D scans. Unlike previous works that analyze the scattered signal at one spot at various wavelengths, our method statistically analyzes 2-D scans of light scattering data over an area, and extracts from the data features (SDM parameters) that change with changes in the tissue morphology. The examination of an area rather than a spot not only leads to a more reliable calculation of the extracted parameters using single techniques (e.g. nuclear size distribution), but it also leads to the computation of additional information embedded in the spatial texture that our decomposition technique arrives at by modeling the hidden correlations that are obtained only by interrogating a wide sample area. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt at modeling the scattered light over an area using a stochastic decomposition model that allows for the assessment of correlation and textural characteristics that otherwise could not be revealed when the analysis of the scattering signal is a function of wavelength or angle. We also come up with a segmentation technique to raise a flag on the fly when a transition occurs between different mucosal architectures on the surface. The segmentation is based on a novel difference metric for detecting an abrupt change in the parameters

  7. A Hopfield neural network for image change detection.

    PubMed

    Pajares, Gonzalo

    2006-09-01

    This paper outlines an optimization relaxation approach based on the analog Hopfield neural network (HNN) for solving the image change detection problem between two images. A difference image is obtained by subtracting pixel by pixel both images. The network topology is built so that each pixel in the difference image is a node in the network. Each node is characterized by its state, which determines if a pixel has changed. An energy function is derived, so that the network converges to stable states. The analog Hopfield's model allows each node to take on analog state values. Unlike most widely used approaches, where binary labels (changed/unchanged) are assigned to each pixel, the analog property provides the strength of the change. The main contribution of this paper is reflected in the customization of the analog Hopfield neural network to derive an automatic image change detection approach. When a pixel is being processed, some existing image change detection procedures consider only interpixel relations on its neighborhood. The main drawback of such approaches is the labeling of this pixel as changed or unchanged according to the information supplied by its neighbors, where its own information is ignored. The Hopfield model overcomes this drawback and for each pixel allows a tradeoff between the influence of its neighborhood and its own criterion. This is mapped under the energy function to be minimized. The performance of the proposed method is illustrated by comparative analysis against some existing image change detection methods.

  8. Automated baseline change detection phase I. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    1995-12-01

    The Automated Baseline Change Detection (ABCD) project is supported by the DOE Morgantown Energy Technology Center (METC) as part of its ER&WM cross-cutting technology program in robotics. Phase 1 of the Automated Baseline Change Detection project is summarized in this topical report. The primary objective of this project is to apply robotic and optical sensor technology to the operational inspection of mixed toxic and radioactive waste stored in barrels, using Automated Baseline Change Detection (ABCD), based on image subtraction. Absolute change detection is based on detecting any visible physical changes, regardless of cause, between a current inspection image of a barrel and an archived baseline image of the same barrel. Thus, in addition to rust, the ABCD system can also detect corrosion, leaks, dents, and bulges. The ABCD approach and method rely on precise camera positioning and repositioning relative to the barrel and on feature recognition in images. In support of this primary objective, there are secondary objectives to determine DOE operational inspection requirements and DOE system fielding requirements.

  9. Detection and Attribution of Anthropogenic Climate Change Impacts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Neofotis, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Human-influenced climate change is an observed phenomenon affecting physical and biological systems across the globe. The majority of observed impacts are related to temperature changes and are located in the northern high- and midlatitudes. However, new evidence is emerging that demonstrates that impacts are related to precipitation changes as well as temperature, and that climate change is impacting systems and sectors beyond the Northern Hemisphere. In this paper, we highlight some of this new evidence-focusing on regions and sectors that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) noted as under-represented-in the context of observed climate change impacts, direct and indirect drivers of change (including carbon dioxide itself), and methods of detection. We also present methods and studies attributing observed impacts to anthropogenic forcing. We argue that the expansion of methods of detection (in terms of a broader array of climate variables and data sources, inclusion of the major modes of climate variability, and incorporation of other drivers of change) is key to discerning the climate sensitivities of sectors and systems in regions where the impacts of climate change currently remain elusive. Attributing such changes to human forcing of the climate system, where possible, is important for development of effective mitigation and adaptation. Current challenges in documenting adaptation and the role of indigenous knowledge in detection and attribution are described.

  10. Unsupervised Change Detection in SAR Images Using Gaussian Mixture Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kiana, E.; Homayouni, S.; Sharifi, M. A.; Farid-Rohani, M.

    2015-12-01

    In this paper, we propose a method for unsupervised change detection in Remote Sensing Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images. This method is based on the mixture modelling of the histogram of difference image. In this process, the difference image is classified into three classes; negative change class, positive change class and no change class. However the SAR images suffer from speckle noise, the proposed method is able to map the changes without speckle filtering. To evaluate the performance of this method, two dates of SAR data acquired by Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Synthetic from an agriculture area are used. Change detection results show better efficiency when compared to the state-of-the-art methods.

  11. Statistical method for detecting structural change in the growth process.

    PubMed

    Ninomiya, Yoshiyuki; Yoshimoto, Atsushi

    2008-03-01

    Due to competition among individual trees and other exogenous factors that change the growth environment, each tree grows following its own growth trend with some structural changes in growth over time. In the present article, a new method is proposed to detect a structural change in the growth process. We formulate the method as a simple statistical test for signal detection without constructing any specific model for the structural change. To evaluate the p-value of the test, the tube method is developed because the regular distribution theory is insufficient. Using two sets of tree diameter growth data sampled from planted forest stands of Cryptomeria japonica in Japan, we conduct an analysis of identifying the effect of thinning on the growth process as a structural change. Our results demonstrate that the proposed method is useful to identify the structural change caused by thinning. We also provide the properties of the method in terms of the size and power of the test.

  12. Change point detection of the Persian Gulf sea surface temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shirvani, A.

    2017-01-01

    In this study, the Student's t parametric and Mann-Whitney nonparametric change point models (CPMs) were applied to detect change point in the annual Persian Gulf sea surface temperature anomalies (PGSSTA) time series for the period 1951-2013. The PGSSTA time series, which were serially correlated, were transformed to produce an uncorrelated pre-whitened time series. The pre-whitened PGSSTA time series were utilized as the input file of change point models. Both the applied parametric and nonparametric CPMs estimated the change point in the PGSSTA in 1992. The PGSSTA follow the normal distribution up to 1992 and thereafter, but with a different mean value after year 1992. The estimated slope of linear trend in PGSSTA time series for the period 1951-1992 was negative; however, that was positive after the detected change point. Unlike the PGSSTA, the applied CPMs suggested no change point in the Niño3.4SSTA time series.

  13. Statistically normalized coherent change detection for synthetic aperture sonar imagery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    G-Michael, Tesfaye; Tucker, J. D.; Roberts, Rodney G.

    2016-05-01

    Coherent Change Detection (CCD) is a process of highlighting an area of activity in scenes (seafloor) under survey and generated from pairs of synthetic aperture sonar (SAS) images of approximately the same location observed at two different time instances. The problem of CCD and subsequent anomaly feature extraction/detection is complicated due to several factors such as the presence of random speckle pattern in the images, changing environmental conditions, and platform instabilities. These complications make the detection of weak target activities even more difficult. Typically, the degree of similarity between two images measured at each pixel locations is the coherence between the complex pixel values in the two images. Higher coherence indicates little change in the scene represented by the pixel and lower coherence indicates change activity in the scene. Such coherence estimation scheme based on the pixel intensity correlation is an ad-hoc procedure where the effectiveness of the change detection is determined by the choice of threshold which can lead to high false alarm rates. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for anomalous change pattern detection using the statistical normalized coherence and multi-pass coherent processing. This method may be used to mitigate shadows by reducing the false alarms resulting in the coherent map due to speckles and shadows. Test results of the proposed methods on a data set of SAS images will be presented, illustrating the effectiveness of the normalized coherence in terms statistics from multi-pass survey of the same scene.

  14. Hardware accelerator design for change detection in smart camera

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singh, Sanjay; Dunga, Srinivasa Murali; Saini, Ravi; Mandal, A. S.; Shekhar, Chandra; Chaudhury, Santanu; Vohra, Anil

    2011-10-01

    Smart Cameras are important components in Human Computer Interaction. In any remote surveillance scenario, smart cameras have to take intelligent decisions to select frames of significant changes to minimize communication and processing overhead. Among many of the algorithms for change detection, one based on clustering based scheme was proposed for smart camera systems. However, such an algorithm could achieve low frame rate far from real-time requirements on a general purpose processors (like PowerPC) available on FPGAs. This paper proposes the hardware accelerator capable of detecting real time changes in a scene, which uses clustering based change detection scheme. The system is designed and simulated using VHDL and implemented on Xilinx XUP Virtex-IIPro FPGA board. Resulted frame rate is 30 frames per second for QVGA resolution in gray scale.

  15. Bivariate gamma distributions for image registration and change detection.

    PubMed

    Chatelain, Florent; Tourneret, Jean-Yves; Inglada, Jordi; Ferrari, André

    2007-07-01

    This paper evaluates the potential interest of using bivariate gamma distributions for image registration and change detection. The first part of this paper studies estimators for the parameters of bivariate gamma distributions based on the maximum likelihood principle and the method of moments. The performance of both methods are compared in terms of estimated mean square errors and theoretical asymptotic variances. The mutual information is a classical similarity measure which can be used for image registration or change detection. The second part of the paper studies some properties of the mutual information for bivariate Gamma distributions. Image registration and change detection techniques based on bivariate gamma distributions are finally investigated. Simulation results conducted on synthetic and real data are very encouraging. Bivariate gamma distributions are good candidates allowing us to develop new image registration algorithms and new change detectors.

  16. Change detection inflates confidence on a subsequent recognition task.

    PubMed

    Fitzgerald, Ryan J; Oriet, Chris; Price, Heather L

    2011-11-01

    A face viewed under good encoding conditions is more likely to be remembered than a face viewed under poor encoding conditions. In four experiments we investigated how encoding conditions affected confidence in recognising faces from line-ups. Participants performed a change detection task followed by a recognition task and then rated how confident they were in their recognition accuracy. In the first two experiments the same faces were repeated across trials. In the final two experiments novel faces were used on each trial. Target-present and target-absent line-ups were utilised. In each experiment participants had greater recognition confidence after change detection than after change blindness. The finding that change detection inflates confidence, even for inaccurate recognitions, indicates recognition certainty can be a product of perceived encoding conditions rather than authentic memory strength.

  17. Coherent Change Detection: Theoretical Description and Experimental Results

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-08-01

    multilook polarimetric and interferometric SAR imagery,” IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, vol. 32, no. 5, pp. 1017–1027, 1994. 50. J. W...scene changes using repeat pass Synthetic Aperture Radar ( SAR ) imagery. As SAR is a coherent imaging system two forms of change detection may be...changes to the sub-resolution cell scattering structure that may be undetectable using inco- herent techniques. The repeat pass SAR imagery however, must

  18. Geometric change detection in urban environments using images.

    PubMed

    Taneja, Aparna; Ballan, Luca; Pollefeys, Marc

    2015-11-01

    We propose a method to detect changes in the geometry of a city using panoramic images captured by a car driving around the city. The proposed method can be used to significantly optimize the process of updating the 3D model of an urban environment that is changing over time, by restricting this process to only those areas where changes are detected. With this application in mind, we designed our algorithm to specifically detect only structural changes in the environment, ignoring any changes in its appearance, and ignoring also all the changes which are not relevant for update purposes such as cars, people etc. The approach also accounts for the challenges involved in a large scale application of change detection, such as inaccuracies in the input geometry, errors in the geo-location data of the images as well as the limited amount of information due to sparse imagery. We evaluated our approach on a small scale setup using high resolution, densely captured images and a large scale setup covering an entire city using instead the more realistic scenario of low resolution, sparsely captured images. A quantitative evaluation was also conducted for the large scale setup consisting of 14,000 images.

  19. Abrupt climate shift in the Western Mediterranean Sea.

    PubMed

    Schroeder, K; Chiggiato, J; Bryden, H L; Borghini, M; Ben Ismail, S

    2016-03-11

    One century of oceanographic measurements has evidenced gradual increases in temperature and salinity of western Mediterranean water masses, even though the vertical stratification has basically remained unchanged. Starting in 2005, the basic structure of the intermediate and deep layers abruptly changed. We report here evidence of reinforced thermohaline variability in the deep western basin with significant dense water formation events producing large amounts of warmer, saltier and denser water masses than ever before. We provide a detailed chronological order to these changes, giving an overview of the new water masses and following their route from the central basin interior to the east (toward the Tyrrhenian) and toward the Atlantic Ocean. As a consequence of this climate shift, new deep waters outflowing through Gibraltar will impact the North Atlantic in terms of salt and heat input. In addition, modifications in the Mediterranean abyssal ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles are to be expected.

  20. Abrupt climate shift in the Western Mediterranean Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schroeder, K.; Chiggiato, J.; Bryden, H. L.; Borghini, M.; Ben Ismail, S.

    2016-03-01

    One century of oceanographic measurements has evidenced gradual increases in temperature and salinity of western Mediterranean water masses, even though the vertical stratification has basically remained unchanged. Starting in 2005, the basic structure of the intermediate and deep layers abruptly changed. We report here evidence of reinforced thermohaline variability in the deep western basin with significant dense water formation events producing large amounts of warmer, saltier and denser water masses than ever before. We provide a detailed chronological order to these changes, giving an overview of the new water masses and following their route from the central basin interior to the east (toward the Tyrrhenian) and toward the Atlantic Ocean. As a consequence of this climate shift, new deep waters outflowing through Gibraltar will impact the North Atlantic in terms of salt and heat input. In addition, modifications in the Mediterranean abyssal ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles are to be expected.

  1. Abrupt climate shift in the Western Mediterranean Sea

    PubMed Central

    Schroeder, K.; Chiggiato, J.; Bryden, H. L.; Borghini, M.; Ben Ismail, S.

    2016-01-01

    One century of oceanographic measurements has evidenced gradual increases in temperature and salinity of western Mediterranean water masses, even though the vertical stratification has basically remained unchanged. Starting in 2005, the basic structure of the intermediate and deep layers abruptly changed. We report here evidence of reinforced thermohaline variability in the deep western basin with significant dense water formation events producing large amounts of warmer, saltier and denser water masses than ever before. We provide a detailed chronological order to these changes, giving an overview of the new water masses and following their route from the central basin interior to the east (toward the Tyrrhenian) and toward the Atlantic Ocean. As a consequence of this climate shift, new deep waters outflowing through Gibraltar will impact the North Atlantic in terms of salt and heat input. In addition, modifications in the Mediterranean abyssal ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles are to be expected. PMID:26965790

  2. Context sensitivity in the detection of changes in facial emotion

    PubMed Central

    Yamashita, Yuichi; Fujimura, Tomomi; Katahira, Kentaro; Honda, Manabu; Okada, Masato; Okanoya, Kazuo

    2016-01-01

    In social contexts, reading subtle changes in others’ facial expressions is a crucial communication skill. To measure this ability, we developed an expression-change detection task, wherein a series of pictures of changes in an individual’s facial expressions within contextual scenes were presented. The results demonstrated that the detection of subtle changes was highly sensitive to contextual stimuli. That is, participants identified the direction of facial-expression changes more accurately and more quickly when they were ‘appropriate’—consistent with the valence of the contextual stimulus change—than when they were ‘inappropriate’. Moreover, individual differences in sensitivity to contextual stimuli were correlated with scores on the Toronto Alexithymia Scale, a commonly used measure of alexithymia tendencies. These results suggest that the current behavioural task might facilitate investigations of the role of context in human social cognition. PMID:27291099

  3. Detecting changes in dynamic and complex acoustic environments

    PubMed Central

    Boubenec, Yves; Lawlor, Jennifer; Górska, Urszula; Shamma, Shihab; Englitz, Bernhard

    2017-01-01

    Natural sounds such as wind or rain, are characterized by the statistical occurrence of their constituents. Despite their complexity, listeners readily detect changes in these contexts. We here address the neural basis of statistical decision-making using a combination of psychophysics, EEG and modelling. In a texture-based, change-detection paradigm, human performance and reaction times improved with longer pre-change exposure, consistent with improved estimation of baseline statistics. Change-locked and decision-related EEG responses were found in a centro-parietal scalp location, whose slope depended on change size, consistent with sensory evidence accumulation. The potential's amplitude scaled with the duration of pre-change exposure, suggesting a time-dependent decision threshold. Auditory cortex-related potentials showed no response to the change. A dual timescale, statistical estimation model accounted for subjects' performance. Furthermore, a decision-augmented auditory cortex model accounted for performance and reaction times, suggesting that the primary cortical representation requires little post-processing to enable change-detection in complex acoustic environments. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.24910.001 PMID:28262095

  4. Towards a Framework for Change Detection in Data Sets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Böttcher, Mirko; Nauck, Detlef; Ruta, Dymitr; Spott, Martin

    Since the world with its markets, innovations and customers is changing faster than ever before, the key to survival for businesses is the ability to detect, assess and respond to changing conditions rapidly and intelligently. Discovering changes and reacting to or acting upon them before others do has therefore become a strategical issue for many companies. However, existing data analysis techniques are insufflent for this task since they typically assume that the domain under consideration is stable over time. This paper presents a framework that detects changes within a data set at virtually any level of granularity. The underlying idea is to derive a rule-based description of the data set at different points in time and to subsequently analyse how these rules change. Nevertheless, further techniques are required to assist the data analyst in interpreting and assessing their changes. Therefore the framework also contains methods to discard rules that are non-drivers for change and to assess the interestingness of detected changes.

  5. Detecting changes in dynamic and complex acoustic environments.

    PubMed

    Boubenec, Yves; Lawlor, Jennifer; Górska, Urszula; Shamma, Shihab; Englitz, Bernhard

    2017-03-06

    Natural sounds such as wind or rain, are characterized by the statistical occurrence of their constituents. Despite their complexity, listeners readily detect changes in these contexts. We here address the neural basis of statistical decision-making using a combination of psychophysics, EEG and modelling. In a texture-based, change-detection paradigm, human performance and reaction times improved with longer pre-change exposure, consistent with improved estimation of baseline statistics. Change-locked and decision-related EEG responses were found in a centro-parietal scalp location, whose slope depended on change size, consistent with sensory evidence accumulation. The potential's amplitude scaled with the duration of pre-change exposure, suggesting a time-dependent decision threshold. Auditory cortex-related potentials showed no response to the change. A dual timescale, statistical estimation model accounted for subjects' performance. Furthermore, a decision-augmented auditory cortex model accounted for performance and reaction times, suggesting that the primary cortical representation requires little post-processing to enable change-detection in complex acoustic environments.

  6. Region Based Forest Change Detection from CARTOSAT-1 Stereo Imagery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tian, J.; Leitloff, J.; Krauß, T.; Reinartz, P.

    2011-09-01

    Tree height is a fundamental parameter for describing the forest situation and changes. The latest development of automatic Digital Surface Model (DSM) generation techniques allows new approaches of forest change detection from satellite stereo imagery. This paper shows how DSMs can support the change detection in forest area. A novel region based forest change detection method is proposed using single-channel CARTOSAT-1 stereo imagery. In the first step, DSMs from two dates are generated based on automatic matching technology. After co-registration and normalising by using LiDAR data, the mean-shift segmentation is applied to the original pan images, and the images of both dates are classified to forest and non-forest areas by analysing their histograms and height differences. In the second step, a rough forest change detection map is generated based on the comparison of the two forest map. Then the GLCM texture from the nDSM and the Cartosat-1 images of the resulting regions are analyzed and compared, the real changes are extracted by SVM based classification.

  7. Structural Change Can Be Detected in Advanced-Glaucoma Eyes

    PubMed Central

    Belghith, Akram; Medeiros, Felipe A.; Bowd, Christopher; Liebmann, Jeffrey M.; Girkin, Christopher A.; Weinreb, Robert N.; Zangwill, Linda M.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose To compare spectral-domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT) standard structural measures and a new three-dimensional (3D) volume optic nerve head (ONH) change detection method for detecting change over time in severely advanced-glaucoma (open-angle glaucoma [OAG]) patients. Methods Thirty-five eyes of 35 patients with very advanced glaucoma (defined as a visual field mean deviation < −21 dB) and 46 eyes of 30 healthy subjects to estimate aging changes were included. Circumpapillary retinal fiber layer thickness (cpRNFL), minimum rim width (MRW), and macular retinal ganglion cell–inner plexiform layer (GCIPL) thicknesses were measured using the San Diego Automated Layer Segmentation Algorithm (SALSA). Progression was defined as structural loss faster than 95th percentile of healthy eyes. Three-dimensional volume ONH change was estimated using the Bayesian-kernel detection scheme (BKDS), which does not require extensive retinal layer segmentation. Results The number of progressing glaucoma eyes identified was highest for 3D volume BKDS (13, 37%), followed by GCPIL (11, 31%), cpRNFL (4, 11%), and MRW (2, 6%). In advanced-OAG eyes, only the mean rate of GCIPL change reached statistical significance, −0.18 μm/y (P = 0.02); the mean rates of cpRNFL and MRW change were not statistically different from zero. In healthy eyes, the mean rates of cpRNFL, MRW, and GCIPL change were significantly different from zero. (all P < 0.001). Conclusions Ganglion cell–inner plexiform layer and 3D volume BKDS show promise for identifying change in severely advanced glaucoma. These results suggest that structural change can be detected in very advanced disease. Longer follow-up is needed to determine whether changes identified are false positives or true progression. PMID:27454660

  8. Extended image differencing for change detection in UAV video mosaics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saur, Günter; Krüger, Wolfgang; Schumann, Arne

    2014-03-01

    Change detection is one of the most important tasks when using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) for video reconnaissance and surveillance. We address changes of short time scale, i.e. the observations are taken in time distances from several minutes up to a few hours. Each observation is a short video sequence acquired by the UAV in near-nadir view and the relevant changes are, e.g., recently parked or moved vehicles. In this paper we extend our previous approach of image differencing for single video frames to video mosaics. A precise image-to-image registration combined with a robust matching approach is needed to stitch the video frames to a mosaic. Additionally, this matching algorithm is applied to mosaic pairs in order to align them to a common geometry. The resulting registered video mosaic pairs are the input of the change detection procedure based on extended image differencing. A change mask is generated by an adaptive threshold applied to a linear combination of difference images of intensity and gradient magnitude. The change detection algorithm has to distinguish between relevant and non-relevant changes. Examples for non-relevant changes are stereo disparity at 3D structures of the scene, changed size of shadows, and compression or transmission artifacts. The special effects of video mosaicking such as geometric distortions and artifacts at moving objects have to be considered, too. In our experiments we analyze the influence of these effects on the change detection results by considering several scenes. The results show that for video mosaics this task is more difficult than for single video frames. Therefore, we extended the image registration by estimating an elastic transformation using a thin plate spline approach. The results for mosaics are comparable to that of single video frames and are useful for interactive image exploitation due to a larger scene coverage.

  9. A new maximum-likelihood change estimator for two-pass SAR coherent change detection

    SciTech Connect

    Wahl, Daniel E.; Yocky, David A.; Jakowatz, Jr., Charles V.; Simonson, Katherine Mary

    2016-01-11

    In past research, two-pass repeat-geometry synthetic aperture radar (SAR) coherent change detection (CCD) predominantly utilized the sample degree of coherence as a measure of the temporal change occurring between two complex-valued image collects. Previous coherence-based CCD approaches tend to show temporal change when there is none in areas of the image that have a low clutter-to-noise power ratio. Instead of employing the sample coherence magnitude as a change metric, in this paper, we derive a new maximum-likelihood (ML) temporal change estimate—the complex reflectance change detection (CRCD) metric to be used for SAR coherent temporal change detection. The new CRCD estimator is a surprisingly simple expression, easy to implement, and optimal in the ML sense. As a result, this new estimate produces improved results in the coherent pair collects that we have tested.

  10. A new maximum-likelihood change estimator for two-pass SAR coherent change detection

    DOE PAGES

    Wahl, Daniel E.; Yocky, David A.; Jakowatz, Jr., Charles V.; ...

    2016-01-11

    In past research, two-pass repeat-geometry synthetic aperture radar (SAR) coherent change detection (CCD) predominantly utilized the sample degree of coherence as a measure of the temporal change occurring between two complex-valued image collects. Previous coherence-based CCD approaches tend to show temporal change when there is none in areas of the image that have a low clutter-to-noise power ratio. Instead of employing the sample coherence magnitude as a change metric, in this paper, we derive a new maximum-likelihood (ML) temporal change estimate—the complex reflectance change detection (CRCD) metric to be used for SAR coherent temporal change detection. The new CRCD estimatormore » is a surprisingly simple expression, easy to implement, and optimal in the ML sense. As a result, this new estimate produces improved results in the coherent pair collects that we have tested.« less

  11. Towards Greenland Glaciation: cumulative or abrupt transition?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tan, Ning; Dumas, Christophe; Ladant, Jean-Baptiste; Ramstein, Gilles; Contoux, Camille

    2016-04-01

    During the mid-Pliocene warming period (3-3.3 Ma BP), global annual mean temperature is warmer by 2-3 degree than pre-industrial. Greenland ice sheet volume is supposed to be a 50% reduction compared to nowadays [Haywood et al. 2010]. Around 2.7-2.6 Ma BP, just ~ 500 kyr after the warming peak of mid-Pliocene, there is already full Greenland Glaciation [Lunt et al. 2008]. How does Greenland ice sheet evolve from a half size to a glaciation level during 3 Ma - 2.5 Ma? Data show that there is a decreasing trend of atmospheric CO2 concentration from 3 Ma to 2.5 Ma [Seki et al.2010; Bartoli et al. 2011; Martinez et al. 2015]. However, a recent study [Contoux et al. 2015] suggests that a lowering of CO2 is not sufficient to initiate a perennial glaciation on Greenland and must be combined to low summer insolation, to preserve the ice sheet during insolation maximum, suggesting a cumulative process. In order to diagnose whether the ice sheet build-up is an abrupt event or a cumulative process, we carry on, for the first time, a transient simulation of climate and ice sheet evolutions from 3 Ma to 2.5 Ma. This strategy enables to investigate waxing and waning of the ice sheet during several orbital cycles. To reach this goal, we use a tri-dimensional interpolation method designed by Ladant et al. (2014) which combines the evolution of CO2 concentration, orbital parameters and Greenland ice sheet sizes in an off-line way by interpolating snapshots simulations. Thanks to this new method, we can build a transient like simulation through asynchronous coupling between GCM and ice sheet model. With this method, we may consistently answer the question of the build-up of Greenland: abrupt or cumulative process.

  12. Folded Compact Range Development and Coherent Change Detection Measurement Project

    SciTech Connect

    Sorensen, K.W.

    1995-03-01

    A novel, folded compact range configuration has been developed at the Sandia National Laboratories compact range antenna and radar cross section measurement facility, operated by the Radar/Antenna Department 2343, as a means of performing indoor, environmentally-controlled, far-field simulations of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) coherent change detection (CCD) measurements. This report describes the development of the folded compact range configuration, as well as the initial set of coherent change detection measurements made with the system. These measurements have been highly successful, and have demonstrated the viability of the folded compact range concept in simulating SAR CCD measurements. It is felt that follow-on measurements have the potential of contributing significantly to the body of knowledge available to the scientific community involved in CCD image generation and processing, and that this tool will be a significant aid in the research and development of change detection methodologies.

  13. Reconstruction of interrupted SAR imagery for persistent surveillance change detection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stojanovic, Ivana; Karl, W. C.; Novak, Les

    2012-05-01

    In this paper we apply a sparse signal recovery technique for synthetic aperture radar (SAR) image formation from interrupted phase history data. Timeline constraints imposed on multi-function modern radars result in interrupted SAR data collection, which in turn leads to corrupted imagery that degrades reliable change detection. In this paper we extrapolate the missing data by applying the basis pursuit denoising algorithm (BPDN) in the image formation step, effectively, modeling the SAR scene as sparse. We investigate the effects of regular and random interruptions on the SAR point spread function (PSF), as well as on the quality of both coherent (CCD) and non-coherent (NCCD) change detection. We contrast the sparse reconstruction to the matched filter (MF) method, implemented via Fourier processing with missing data set to zero. To illustrate the capabilities of the gap-filling sparse reconstruction algorithm, we evaluate change detection performance using a pair of images from the GOTCHA data set.

  14. Evaluation of change detection techniques for monitoring coastal zone environments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weismiller, R. A.; Kristof, S. J.; Scholz, D. K.; Anuta, P. E.; Momin, S. M.

    1977-01-01

    Procedures for detecting changes in Landsat multispectral scanning imagery of coastal zone environments are discussed. Four detection procedures are examined: a comparison of independently produced spectral classifications; a classification of a multispectral difference data set; a single analysis of a multidate data set; and a maximum likelihood classification using multistage decision logic. The relatively complex maximum likelihood classification technique was found to yield results closest to those obtained with the comparison of independently produced spectral classifications, the chosen standard.

  15. Data-driven techniques for detecting dynamical state changes in noisily measured 3D single-molecule trajectories.

    PubMed

    Calderon, Christopher P

    2014-11-12

    Optical microscopes and nanoscale probes (AFM, optical tweezers, etc.) afford researchers tools capable of quantitatively exploring how molecules interact with one another in live cells. The analysis of in vivo single-molecule experimental data faces numerous challenges due to the complex, crowded, and time changing environments associated with live cells. Fluctuations and spatially varying systematic forces experienced by molecules change over time; these changes are obscured by "measurement noise" introduced by the experimental probe monitoring the system. In this article, we demonstrate how the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Switching Linear Dynamical System (HDP-SLDS) of Fox et al. [IEEE Transactions on Signal Processing 59] can be used to detect both subtle and abrupt state changes in time series containing "thermal" and "measurement" noise. The approach accounts for temporal dependencies induced by random and "systematic overdamped" forces. The technique does not require one to subjectively select the number of "hidden states" underlying a trajectory in an a priori fashion. The number of hidden states is simultaneously inferred along with change points and parameters characterizing molecular motion in a data-driven fashion. We use large scale simulations to study and compare the new approach to state-of-the-art Hidden Markov Modeling techniques. Simulations mimicking single particle tracking (SPT) experiments are the focus of this study.

  16. Investigation on automatic change detection using pixel-changes and DSM-changes with ALOS-PRISM triplet images

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sasagawa, A.; Baltsavias, E.; Kocaman Aksakal, S.; Wegner, J. D.

    2013-10-01

    A new algorithm for automatic change detection is presented. It detects a pixel-change and DSM-change from two orthoimages and two DSMs, then it extracts the polygons in elevation-changed areas. Pixel-change is detected by using least squares fitting technique. This method can extract the visible changed areas between two orthoimages, while DSM-change is detected by difference DSM. From these two changes, polygons in elevation-changed areas are extracted using the longest matched line selection techniques. This method can automatically detect not only visible changed areas such as vegetated areas, new road construction areas and so on, but also elevation-changed areas such as new building construction, land improvement areas and so on with footprint polygon extraction. We have tested our method using the two sets of ALOS-PRISM triplet images observed over a testfield in Tsukuba, Japan. We confirmed that this method has an effect finding changed areas. Also we compared the number of extracted polygons between manual operation and our automatic method.

  17. Detecting regional patterns of changing CO2 flux in Alaska

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parazoo, Nicholas C.; Commane, Roisin; Wofsy, Steven C.; Koven, Charles D.; Sweeney, Colm; Lawrence, David M.; Lindaas, Jakob; Chang, Rachel Y.-W.; Miller, Charles E.

    2016-07-01

    With rapid changes in climate and the seasonal amplitude of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the Arctic, it is critical that we detect and quantify the underlying processes controlling the changing amplitude of CO2 to better predict carbon cycle feedbacks in the Arctic climate system. We use satellite and airborne observations of atmospheric CO2 with climatically forced CO2 flux simulations to assess the detectability of Alaskan carbon cycle signals as future warming evolves. We find that current satellite remote sensing technologies can detect changing uptake accurately during the growing season but lack sufficient cold season coverage and near-surface sensitivity to constrain annual carbon balance changes at regional scale. Airborne strategies that target regular vertical profile measurements within continental interiors are more sensitive to regional flux deeper into the cold season but currently lack sufficient spatial coverage throughout the entire cold season. Thus, the current CO2 observing network is unlikely to detect potentially large CO2 sources associated with deep permafrost thaw and cold season respiration expected over the next 50 y. Although continuity of current observations is vital, strategies and technologies focused on cold season measurements (active remote sensing, aircraft, and tall towers) and systematic sampling of vertical profiles across continental interiors over the full annual cycle are required to detect the onset of carbon release from thawing permafrost.

  18. Detecting regional patterns of changing CO2 flux in Alaska

    PubMed Central

    Parazoo, Nicholas C.; Wofsy, Steven C.; Koven, Charles D.; Sweeney, Colm; Lawrence, David M.; Lindaas, Jakob; Chang, Rachel Y.-W.; Miller, Charles E.

    2016-01-01

    With rapid changes in climate and the seasonal amplitude of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the Arctic, it is critical that we detect and quantify the underlying processes controlling the changing amplitude of CO2 to better predict carbon cycle feedbacks in the Arctic climate system. We use satellite and airborne observations of atmospheric CO2 with climatically forced CO2 flux simulations to assess the detectability of Alaskan carbon cycle signals as future warming evolves. We find that current satellite remote sensing technologies can detect changing uptake accurately during the growing season but lack sufficient cold season coverage and near-surface sensitivity to constrain annual carbon balance changes at regional scale. Airborne strategies that target regular vertical profile measurements within continental interiors are more sensitive to regional flux deeper into the cold season but currently lack sufficient spatial coverage throughout the entire cold season. Thus, the current CO2 observing network is unlikely to detect potentially large CO2 sources associated with deep permafrost thaw and cold season respiration expected over the next 50 y. Although continuity of current observations is vital, strategies and technologies focused on cold season measurements (active remote sensing, aircraft, and tall towers) and systematic sampling of vertical profiles across continental interiors over the full annual cycle are required to detect the onset of carbon release from thawing permafrost. PMID:27354511

  19. Optical and SAR data integration for automatic change pattern detection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mishra, B.; Susaki, J.

    2014-09-01

    Automatic change pattern mapping in urban and sub-urban area is important but challenging due to the diversity of urban land use pattern. With multi-sensor imagery, it is possible to generate multidimensional unique information of Earth surface features that allow developing a relationship between a response of each feature to synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and optical sensors to track the change automatically. Thus, a SAR and optical data integration framework for change detection and a relationship for automatic change pattern detection were developed. It was carried out in three steps: (i) Computation of indicators from SAR and optical images, namely: normalized difference ratio (NDR) from multi-temporal SAR images and the normalized difference vegetation index difference (NDVI) from multi-temporal optical images, (ii) computing the change magnitude image from NDR and ΔNDVI and delineating the change area and (iii) the development of an empirical relationship, for automatic change pattern detection. The experiment was carried out in an outskirts part of Ho Chi Minh City, one of the fastest growing cities in the world. The empirical relationship between the response of surface feature to optical and SAR imagery has successfully delineated six changed classes in a very complex urban sprawl area that was otherwise impossible with multi-spectral imagery. The improvement of the change detection results by making use of the unique information on both sensors, optical and SAR, is also noticeable with a visual inspection and the kappa index was increased by 0.13 (0.75 to 0.88) in comparison to only optical images.

  20. Using adversary text to detect adversary phase changes.

    SciTech Connect

    Speed, Ann Elizabeth; Doser, Adele Beatrice; Warrender, Christina E.

    2009-05-01

    The purpose of this work was to help develop a research roadmap and small proof ofconcept for addressing key problems and gaps from the perspective of using text analysis methods as a primary tool for detecting when a group is undergoing a phase change. Self- rganizing map (SOM) techniques were used to analyze text data obtained from the tworld-wide web. Statistical studies indicate that it may be possible to predict phase changes, as well as detect whether or not an example of writing can be attributed to a group of interest.

  1. Landsat change detection can aid in water quality monitoring

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Macdonald, H. C.; Steele, K. F.; Waite, W. P.; Shinn, M. R.

    1977-01-01

    Comparison between Landsat-1 and -2 imagery of Arkansas provided evidence of significant land use changes during the 1972-75 time period. Analysis of Arkansas historical water quality information has shown conclusively that whereas point source pollution generally can be detected by use of water quality data collected by state and federal agencies, sampling methodologies for nonpoint source contamination attributable to surface runoff are totally inadequate. The expensive undertaking of monitoring all nonpoint sources for numerous watersheds can be lessened by implementing Landsat change detection analyses.

  2. Dissolve Detection Using Intensity Change Information of Edge Pixels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kwon, Chul-Hyun; Han, Doo-Jin; Kim, Hyun-Sool; Lee, Myung-Ho; Park, Sang-Hui

    Shot transition detection is a core technology in video browsing, indexing systems and information retrieval. In this paper we propose a dissolve detection algorithm using the characteristics of edge in MPEG compressed video. Using the intensity change information of edge pixels obtained by Sobel edge detector, we detect the location of a dissolve and its precise duration. We also present a new reliable method to eliminate the false dissolves. The proposed algorithm is tested in various types of videos, and the experimental results show that the proposed algorithm is effective and robust.

  3. Segmentation of Arteries in Minimally Invasive Surgery Using Change Detection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Akbari, Hamed; Kosugi, Yukio; Kojima, Kazuyuki

    In laparoscopic surgery, the lack of tactile sensation and 3D visual feedback make it difficult to identify the position of a blood vessel intraoperatively. An unintentional partial tear or complete rupture of a blood vessel may result in a serious complication; moreover, if the surgeon cannot manage this situation, open surgery will be necessary. Differentiation of arteries from veins and other structures and the ability to independently detect them has a variety of applications in surgical procedures involving the head, neck, lung, heart, abdomen, and extremities. We have used the artery's pulsatile movement to detect and differentiate arteries from veins. The algorithm for change detection in this study uses edge detection for unsupervised image registration. Changed regions are identified by subtracting the systolic and diastolic images. As a post-processing step, region properties, including color average, area, major and minor axis lengths, perimeter, and solidity, are used as inputs of the LVQ (Learning Vector Quantization) network. The output results in two object classes: arteries and non-artery regions. After post-processing, arteries can be detected in the laparoscopic field. The registration method used here is evaluated in comparison with other linear and nonlinear elastic methods. The performance of this method is evaluated for the detection of arteries in several laparoscopic surgeries on an animal model and on eleven human patients. The performance evaluation criteria are based on false negative and false positive rates. This algorithm is able to detect artery regions, even in cases where the arteries are obscured by other tissues.

  4. Climate Change Detection and Attribution of Infrared Spectrum Measurements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Phojanamongkolkij, Nipa; Parker, Peter A.; Mlynczak, Martin G.

    2012-01-01

    Climate change occurs when the Earth's energy budget changes due to natural or possibly anthropogenic forcings. These forcings cause the climate system to adjust resulting in a new climate state that is warmer or cooler than the original. The key question is how to detect and attribute climate change. The inference of infrared spectral signatures of climate change has been discussed in the literature for nearly 30 years. Pioneering work in the 1980s noted that distinct spectral signatures would be evident in changes in the infrared radiance emitted by the Earth and its atmosphere, and that these could be observed from orbiting satellites. Since then, a number of other studies have advanced the concepts of spectral signatures of climate change. Today the concept of using spectral signatures to identify and attribute atmospheric composition change is firmly accepted and is the foundation of the Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) satellite mission being developed at NASA. In this work, we will present an overview of the current climate change detection concept using climate model calculations as surrogates for climate change. Any future research work improving the methodology to achieve this concept will be valuable to our society.

  5. Convolutional neural network features based change detection in satellite images

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mohammed El Amin, Arabi; Liu, Qingjie; Wang, Yunhong

    2016-07-01

    With the popular use of high resolution remote sensing (HRRS) satellite images, a huge research efforts have been placed on change detection (CD) problem. An effective feature selection method can significantly boost the final result. While hand-designed features have proven difficulties to design features that effectively capture high and mid-level representations, the recent developments in machine learning (Deep Learning) omit this problem by learning hierarchical representation in an unsupervised manner directly from data without human intervention. In this letter, we propose approaching the change detection problem from a feature learning perspective. A novel deep Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) features based HR satellite images change detection method is proposed. The main guideline is to produce a change detection map directly from two images using a pretrained CNN. This method can omit the limited performance of hand-crafted features. Firstly, CNN features are extracted through different convolutional layers. Then, a concatenation step is evaluated after an normalization step, resulting in a unique higher dimensional feature map. Finally, a change map was computed using pixel-wise Euclidean distance. Our method has been validated on real bitemporal HRRS satellite images according to qualitative and quantitative analyses. The results obtained confirm the interest of the proposed method.

  6. Detection of cardiac activity changes from human speech

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tovarek, Jaromir; Partila, Pavol; Voznak, Miroslav; Mikulec, Martin; Mehic, Miralem

    2015-05-01

    Impact of changes in blood pressure and pulse from human speech is disclosed in this article. The symptoms of increased physical activity are pulse, systolic and diastolic pressure. There are many methods of measuring and indicating these parameters. The measurements must be carried out using devices which are not used in everyday life. In most cases, the measurement of blood pressure and pulse following health problems or other adverse feelings. Nowadays, research teams are trying to design and implement modern methods in ordinary human activities. The main objective of the proposal is to reduce the delay between detecting the adverse pressure and to the mentioned warning signs and feelings. Common and frequent activity of man is speaking, while it is known that the function of the vocal tract can be affected by the change in heart activity. Therefore, it can be a useful parameter for detecting physiological changes. A method for detecting human physiological changes by speech processing and artificial neural network classification is described in this article. The pulse and blood pressure changes was induced by physical exercises in this experiment. The set of measured subjects was formed by ten healthy volunteers of both sexes. None of the subjects was a professional athlete. The process of the experiment was divided into phases before, during and after physical training. Pulse, systolic, diastolic pressure was measured and voice activity was recorded after each of them. The results of this experiment describe a method for detecting increased cardiac activity from human speech using artificial neural network.

  7. Detecting human influence in observed changes in precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Polson, Debbie; Hegerl, Gabriele; Bollasina, Massimo; Wilcox, Laura; Zhang, Xuebin; Osborn, Timothy; Balan Sarojini, Beena

    2015-04-01

    Human induced changes to the precipitation could cause some of the most serious impacts of climate change, with potential consequences for water resources, health, agriculture and ecosystems. However, quantifying and understanding the drivers of changes to precipitation is challenging due to its large spatial and temporal variability, the lack of long-term observational records over much of the globe and the counteracting affects of greenhouse gases and aerosols. Nevertheless, detection and attribution studies have shown that human influence has changed both global and regional precipitation over the latter half of the 20th century. Using climates models to derive fingerprints of external forcing, we are able to show that greenhouse gas warming has driven large scale changes in precipitation. Greenhouse gas forcing is detectable in observed changes to zonal mean precipitation over land (Polson et al., 2012a). It has also been shown to have caused the intensification of the water cycle, enhancing existing patterns of the precipitation in the tropics and subtropics, over both land and ocean (Polson et al., 2012b). While at global scales, the influence of greenhouse gases is detectable in observations, separating the response of precipitation to anthropogenic aerosol forcing is more difficult. However, in some regions the influence of aerosols dominate, making it possible to detect aerosol forcing. Observed precipitation in the monsoon regions underwent substantial changes during the second half of the twentieth century, with drying from the 1950s to mid-1980s and increasing precipitation in recent decades. Climate model simulations are used to derive fingerprints of individual climate forcings (i.e., greenhouse gas, anthropogenic aerosol, and natural) and detection and attribution methods applied to determine which, if any, have driven these changes to monsoon precipitation. Even when accounting for internal variability of the climate, a clear signal of anthropogenic

  8. SAR image change detection using watershed and spectral clustering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Niu, Ruican; Jiao, L. C.; Wang, Guiting; Feng, Jie

    2011-12-01

    A new method of change detection in SAR images based on spectral clustering is presented in this paper. Spectral clustering is employed to extract change information from a pair images acquired on the same geographical area at different time. Watershed transform is applied to initially segment the big image into non-overlapped local regions, leading to reduce the complexity. Experiments results and system analysis confirm the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

  9. Cesarean Delivery for a Life-threatening Preterm Placental Abruption

    PubMed Central

    Okafor, II; Ugwu, EO

    2015-01-01

    Placental abruption is one of the major life-threatening obstetric conditions. The fetomaternal outcome of a severe placental abruption depends largely on prompt maternal resuscitation and delivery. A case of severe preterm placental abruption with intrauterine fetal death. Following a failed induction of labor with a deteriorating maternal condition despite resuscitation, emergency cesarean delivery was offered with good maternal outcome. Cesarean delivery could avert further disease progression and possible maternal death in cases of severe preterm placental abruption where vaginal delivery is not imminent. However, further studies are necessary before this could be recommended for routine clinical practice. PMID:27057388

  10. Detecting Changes in Terrain Using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rahman, Zia-ur; Hines, Glenn D.; Logan, Michael J.

    2005-01-01

    In recent years, small unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have been used for more than the thrill they bring to model airplane enthusiasts. Their flexibility and low cost have made them a viable option for low-altitude reconnaissance. In a recent effort, we acquired video data from a small UAV during several passes over the same flight path. The objective of the exercise was to determine if objects had been added to the terrain along the flight path between flight passes. Several issues accrue to this simple-sounding problem: (1) lighting variations may cause false detection of objects because of changes in shadow orientation and strength between passes; (2) variations in the flight path due to wind-speed, and heading change may cause misalignment of gross features making the task of detecting changes between the frames very difficult; and (3) changes in the aircraft orientation and altitude lead to a change in size of the features from frame-to-frame making a comparison difficult. In this paper, we discuss our efforts to perform this change detection, and the lessons that we learned from this exercise.

  11. Abrupt tectonics and rapid slab detachment with grain damage.

    PubMed

    Bercovici, David; Schubert, Gerald; Ricard, Yanick

    2015-02-03

    A simple model for necking and detachment of subducting slabs is developed to include the coupling between grain-sensitive rheology and grain-size evolution with damage. Necking is triggered by thickened buoyant crust entrained into a subduction zone, in which case grain damage accelerates necking and allows for relatively rapid slab detachment, i.e., within 1 My, depending on the size of the crustal plug. Thick continental crustal plugs can cause rapid necking while smaller plugs characteristic of ocean plateaux cause slower necking; oceanic lithosphere with normal or slightly thickened crust subducts without necking. The model potentially explains how large plateaux or continental crust drawn into subduction zones can cause slab loss and rapid changes in plate motion and/or induce abrupt continental rebound.

  12. Abrupt tectonics and rapid slab detachment with grain damage

    PubMed Central

    Bercovici, David; Schubert, Gerald; Ricard, Yanick

    2015-01-01

    A simple model for necking and detachment of subducting slabs is developed to include the coupling between grain-sensitive rheology and grain-size evolution with damage. Necking is triggered by thickened buoyant crust entrained into a subduction zone, in which case grain damage accelerates necking and allows for relatively rapid slab detachment, i.e., within 1 My, depending on the size of the crustal plug. Thick continental crustal plugs can cause rapid necking while smaller plugs characteristic of ocean plateaux cause slower necking; oceanic lithosphere with normal or slightly thickened crust subducts without necking. The model potentially explains how large plateaux or continental crust drawn into subduction zones can cause slab loss and rapid changes in plate motion and/or induce abrupt continental rebound. PMID:25605890

  13. Detection of epigenetic changes using ANOVA with spatially varying coefficients.

    PubMed

    Guanghua, Xiao; Xinlei, Wang; Quincey, LaPlant; Nestler, Eric J; Xie, Yang

    2013-03-13

    Identification of genome-wide epigenetic changes, the stable changes in gene function without a change in DNA sequence, under various conditions plays an important role in biomedical research. High-throughput epigenetic experiments are useful tools to measure genome-wide epigenetic changes, but the measured intensity levels from these high-resolution genome-wide epigenetic profiling data are often spatially correlated with high noise levels. In addition, it is challenging to detect genome-wide epigenetic changes across multiple conditions, so efficient statistical methodology development is needed for this purpose. In this study, we consider ANOVA models with spatially varying coefficients, combined with a hierarchical Bayesian approach, to explicitly model spatial correlation caused by location-dependent biological effects (i.e., epigenetic changes) and borrow strength among neighboring probes to compare epigenetic changes across multiple conditions. Through simulation studies and applications in drug addiction and depression datasets, we find that our approach compares favorably with competing methods; it is more efficient in estimation and more effective in detecting epigenetic changes. In addition, it can provide biologically meaningful results.

  14. Environmental Change Detection Using Multi-Temporal SAR Imagery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fazel, Mohammad A.; Homayouni, Saeid; Aghakarimi, Armin

    2013-04-01

    Monitoring of environmental phenomena in short-, mid- and long-term periods is the first step of any study or plan for natural resource management. As a result, detection and identification of the environmental changes became a main area of research for different applications. Remotely sensed data and especially Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery thanks to its independence to weather conditions and sun illumination, and its spatial and temporal resolution ability is a valuable source of information for change detection analysis and provides reliable data for information extraction for various applications. In general, change detection methods are grouped into supervised and unsupervised methods. Supervised methods work based on multi-temporal land-cover mapping of satellite images. While, unsupervised techniques include the very simple idea of image differencing to more sophisticated statistical modeling of changes in images. Unsupervised methods because of their advantages are more important in many applications. In recent years, the use of kernel based methods in change detection applications became an interesting topic in remote sensing community. Kernel-based methods and machine learning algorithms are the unsupervised paradigms which introduced powerful tools to deal with nonlinear classification. In this paper, we have presented a fully unsupervised framework for detecting the Urmia Lake changes during 2007 to 2010. This method uses the kernel-based clustering technique. The kernel k-means algorithm separates the changes from no-change classes of speckle free images. This method is a non-linear algorithm which considers the contextual information. For this purpose, at first, difference maps are calculated from multi-temporal data. Then these maps are projected into a higher dimensional space by using kernel function. Finally an unsupervised k-means clustering algorithm is used to obtain change and no-change classes. The proposed methodology is applied to

  15. A change detection approach to moving object detection in low frame-rate video

    SciTech Connect

    Porter, Reid B; Harvey, Neal R; Theiler, James P

    2009-01-01

    Moving object detection is of significant interest in temporal image analysis since it is a first step in many object identification and tracking applications. A key component in almost all moving object detection algorithms is a pixel-level classifier, where each pixel is predicted to be either part of a moving object or part of the background. In this paper we investigate a change detection approach to the pixel-level classification problem and evaluate its impact on moving object detection. The change detection approach that we investigate was previously applied to multi-and hyper-spectral datasets, where images were typically taken several days, or months apart. In this paper, we apply the approach to low-frame rate (1-2 frames per second) video datasets.

  16. A recent and abrupt decline in the East African long rains

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lyon, Bradfield; DeWitt, David G.

    2012-01-01

    The successive failure of the East African short rains (typically October-December) and subsequent long rains (March-May) in 2010-11 plunged much of the region into severe drought, impacting millions of people and triggering a humanitarian crisis. While poor short rains in 2010 were generally anticipated given linkages with La Niña, the subsequent long rains do not exhibit similar predictability. Here we show the long rains failure in boreal spring of 2011 is consistent with a recurrent large-scale precipitation pattern that followed their abrupt decline around 1999. Using observations and climate model simulations, we show the abrupt decline in long rains precipitation is linked to similarly abrupt changes in sea surface temperatures, predominately in the tropical Pacific basin.

  17. Robust Detection of Examinees with Aberrant Answer Changes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Belov, Dmitry I.

    2015-01-01

    The statistical analysis of answer changes (ACs) has uncovered multiple testing irregularities on large-scale assessments and is now routinely performed at testing organizations. However, AC data has an uncertainty caused by technological or human factors. Therefore, existing statistics (e.g., number of wrong-to-right ACs) used to detect examinees…

  18. Automated Change Detection Using Synthetic Aperture Sonar Imagery

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-06-01

    using shadow outlining, scene matching using control-point matching, and visualization capabilities. This system was developed for sidescan sonar ...surveys using instrumentation such as the high-frequency Marine Sonic Technology sidescan sonar . In this paper, the authors describe modifications to...the sidescan -based system required to perform change detection using Synthetic Aperture Sonar (SAS) bottom imagery. Index Terms—Acoustic signal

  19. Experiments in Coherent Change Detection for Synthetic Aperture Sonar

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-06-01

    over time. ACD techniques, long used in airborne radar applications, are just beginning to be applied to sidescan sonar . In Coherent Change Detection...accurate geo- registration), the complexity of the propagation environment, and the radiometric inconsistencies of conventional sidescan sonars ...will follow suit. As conventional sidescan sonars exhibit resolution that degrades with range and are typically limited to creation of backscatter

  20. Improved forest change detection with terrain illumination corrected landsat images

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    An illumination correction algorithm has been developed to improve the accuracy of forest change detection from Landsat reflectance data. This algorithm is based on an empirical rotation model and was tested on the Landsat imagery pair over Cherokee National Forest, Tennessee, Uinta-Wasatch-Cache N...

  1. Climate change and the detection of trends in annual runoff

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McCabe, G.J.; Wolock, D.M.

    1997-01-01

    This study examines the statistical likelihood of detecting a trend in annual runoff given an assumed change in mean annual runoff, the underlying year-to-year variability in runoff, and serial correlation of annual runoff. Means, standard deviations, and lag-1 serial correlations of annual runoff were computed for 585 stream gages in the conterminous United States, and these statistics were used to compute the probability of detecting a prescribed trend in annual runoff. Assuming a linear 20% change in mean annual runoff over a 100 yr period and a significance level of 95%, the average probability of detecting a significant trend was 28% among the 585 stream gages. The largest probability of detecting a trend was in the northwestern U.S., the Great Lakes region, the northeastern U.S., the Appalachian Mountains, and parts of the northern Rocky Mountains. The smallest probability of trend detection was in the central and southwestern U.S., and in Florida. Low probabilities of trend detection were associated with low ratios of mean annual runoff to the standard deviation of annual runoff and with high lag-1 serial correlation in the data.

  2. Land-use/land-cover change detection using change-vector analysis in posterior probability space

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Xuehong; Chen, Jin; Shen, Miaogen; Yang, Wei

    2008-10-01

    Land use/land cover change is an important field in global environmental change research. Remote sensing is a valuable data source from which land use/land cover change information can be extracted efficiently. A number of techniques for accomplishing change detection using satellite imagery have been formulated, applied, and evaluated, which can be generally grouped into two types. (1) Those based on spectral classification of the input data such as post-classification comparison and direct two-date classification; and (2) those based on radiometric change between different acquisition dates. The shortage of type 1 is cumulative error in image classification of an individual date. However, radiometric change approaches has a strict requirement for reliable image radiometry. In light of the above mentioned drawbacks of those two types of change detection methods, this paper presents a new method named change vector analysis in posterior probability space (CVAPS). Change-vector analysis (CVA) is one of the most successful radiometric change-based approaches. CVAPS approach incorporates post-classification comparison method and CVA approach, which is expected to inherit the advantages of two traditional methods and avoid their defects at the same time. CVAPS includes the following four steps. (1) Images in different periods are classified by certain classifier which can provide posterior probability output. Then, the posterior probability can be treated as a vector, the dimension of which is equal to the number of classes. (2) A procedure similar with CVA is employed. Compared with traditional CVA, new method analyzes the change vector in posterior probability space instead of spectral feature space. (3) A semiautomatic method, named Double-Window Flexible Pace Search (DFPS), is employed to determine the threshold of change magnitude. (4) Change category is discriminated by cosines of the change vectors. CVAPS approach was applied and validated by a case study of

  3. Towards Greenland Glaciation: Cumulative or Abrupt Transition?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tan, N.; Ramstein, G.; Contoux, C.; Ladant, J. B.; Dumas, C.; Donnadieu, Y.

    2014-12-01

    The insolation evolution [Laskar 2004] from 4 to 2.5 Ma depicts a series of three summer solstice insolation minima between 2.7 and 2.6 Ma, but there are other more important summer solstice minima notably around 3.82 and 3.05 Ma. On such a time span of more than 1 Ma, data shows that there are variations in the evolution of atmospheric CO2 concentration with a local maximum around 3 Ma [Seki et al.2010; Bartoli et al. 2011], before a decrease between 3 and 2.6 Ma. The latter, suggesting an abrupt ice sheet inception around 2.7 Ma, has been shown to be a major culprit for the full Greenland Glaciation [Lunt et al. 2008]. However, a recent study [Contoux et al. 2014, in review] suggests that a lowering of CO2 is not sufficient to initiate a glaciation on Greenland and must be combined to low summer insolation, with surviving ice during insolation maximum, suggesting a cumulative process in the first place, which could further lead to full glaciation at 2.7 Ma. Through a new tri-dimensional interpolation method implemented within the asynchronous coupling between an atmosphere ocean general circulation model (IPSL-CM5A) and an ice sheet model (GRISLI), we investigate the transient evolution of Greenland ice sheet during the Pliocene to diagnose whether the ice sheet inception is an abrupt event or rather a cumulative process, involving waxing and waning of the ice sheet during several orbital cycles. ReferencesBartoli, G., Hönisch, B., & Zeebe, R. E. (2011). Atmospheric CO2 decline during the Pliocene intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciations. Paleoceanography, 26(4). Contoux C, Dumas C, Ramstein G, Jost A, Dolan A. M. (2014) Modelling Greenland Ice sheet inception and sustainability during the late Pliocene. (in review for Earth and Planetary Science Letters.).Laskar, J., Robutel, P., Joutel, F., Gastineau, M., Correia, A. C. M., & Levrard, B. (2004). A long-term numerical solution for the insolation quantities of the Earth. Astronomy & Astrophysics, 428

  4. Groundwater storage change detection using micro-gravimetric technology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    El-Diasty, Mohammed

    2016-06-01

    In this paper, new perspectives and developments in applying a ground-based micro-gravimetric method to detect groundwater storage change in Waterloo Moraine are investigated. Four epochs of gravity survey were conducted using absolute gravimeter (FG5), two relative gravity meters (CG5) and two geodetic global positioning systems (GPS) in the Waterloo Moraine in May and August of 2010 and 2011, respectively. Data were processed using the parametric least-squares method and integrated with geological and hydrological studies. The gravity differences between May and August for 2010 and 2011 epochs were inverted to provide the estimated total water storage changes. Changes in soil water content obtained from land surface models of Ecological Assimilation of Land and Climate Observations (EALCO) and the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) program were employed to estimate the groundwater storage change. The ratios between the estimated groundwater storage changes and measured water table changes (specific yields) were determined at a local monitoring well located in the survey area. The results showed that the estimates of specific yields between May and August of 2010 and 2011 were consistent at a significant confidence level and are also within the range of the specific yield from geological and hydrological studies. Therefore, the micro-gravimetric (absolute and relative gravity meters) technology has demonstrated the great potential in detecting groundwater storage change and specific yield for local scale aquifers such as Waterloo Moraine.

  5. Abrupt Climate Change in the Atlantic Ocean During the Last 20,000 Years: Insights from Multi-Element Analyses of Benthic and Planktic Foraminifera and a Coupled OA-GCM

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2005-09-01

    paleoceanographic and terrestrial climate proxies . Greenland ice cores, in particular, provide evidence of large amplitude, very rapid climate change during...received the most attention because it is the largest Holocene excursion in the GISP2 810 record [Alley et al., 1997]. Multiple proxies in Greenland ice...latitude North Atlantic foraminiferal-based proxies such as modem analogue technique [Marchal et al., 2002; Risebrobakken et al., 2003], but

  6. A targeted change-detection procedure by combining change vector analysis and post-classification approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ye, Su; Chen, Dongmei; Yu, Jie

    2016-04-01

    In remote sensing, conventional supervised change-detection methods usually require effective training data for multiple change types. This paper introduces a more flexible and efficient procedure that seeks to identify only the changes that users are interested in, here after referred to as ;targeted change detection;. Based on a one-class classifier ;Support Vector Domain Description (SVDD);, a novel algorithm named ;Three-layer SVDD Fusion (TLSF); is developed specially for targeted change detection. The proposed algorithm combines one-class classification generated from change vector maps, as well as before- and after-change images in order to get a more reliable detecting result. In addition, this paper introduces a detailed workflow for implementing this algorithm. This workflow has been applied to two case studies with different practical monitoring objectives: urban expansion and forest fire assessment. The experiment results of these two case studies show that the overall accuracy of our proposed algorithm is superior (Kappa statistics are 86.3% and 87.8% for Case 1 and 2, respectively), compared to applying SVDD to change vector analysis and post-classification comparison.

  7. Change Detection Processing Chain Dedicated to Sentinel Data Time Series. Application to Forest and Water Bodies Monitoring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perez Saavedra, L.-M.; Mercier, G.; Yesou, H.; Liege, F.; Pasero, G.

    2016-08-01

    The Copernicus program of ESA and European commission (6 Sentinels Missions, among them Sentinel-1 with Synthetic Aperture Radar sensor and Sentinel-2 with 13-band 10 to 60 meter resolution optical sensors), offers a new opportunity to Earth Observation with high temporal acquisition capability ( 12 days repetitiveness and 5 days in some geographic areas of the world) with high spatial resolution.Due to these high temporal and spatial resolutions, it opens new challenges in several fields such as image processing, new algorithms for Time Series and big data analysis. In addition, these missions will be able to analyze several topics of earth temporal evolution such as crop vegetation, water bodies, Land use and Land Cover (LULC), sea and ice information, etc. This is particularly useful for end users and policy makers to detect early signs of damages, vegetation illness, flooding areas, etc.From the state of the art, one can find algorithms and methods that use a bi-date comparison for change detection [1-3] or time series analysis. Actually, these methods are essentially used for target detection or for abrupt change detection that requires 2 observations only.A Hölder means-based change detection technique has been proposed in [2,3] for high resolution radar images. This so-called MIMOSA technique has been mainly dedicated to man-made change detection in urban areas and CARABAS - II project by using a couple of SAR images. An extension to multitemporal change detection technique has been investigated but its application to land use and cover changes still has to be validated.The Hölder Hp is a Time Series pixel by pixel feature extraction and is defined by:H𝑝[X]=[1/n∑ⁿᵢ₌1 Xᴾᵢ]1/p p∈R Hp[X] : N images * S Bandes * t datesn is the number of images in the time series. N > 2Hp (X) is continuous and monotonic increasing in p for - ∞ < p < ∞

  8. Going, Going, Gone: Localizing Abrupt Offsets of Moving Objects

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Maus, Gerrit W.; Nijhawan, Romi

    2009-01-01

    When a moving object abruptly disappears, this profoundly influences its localization by the visual system. In Experiment 1, 2 aligned objects moved across the screen, and 1 of them abruptly disappeared. Observers reported seeing the objects misaligned at the time of the offset, with the continuing object leading. Experiment 2 showed that the…

  9. Discriminative genre-independent audio-visual scene change detection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilson, Kevin W.; Divakaran, Ajay

    2009-01-01

    We present a technique for genre-independent scene-change detection using audio and video features in a discriminative support vector machine (SVM) framework. This work builds on our previous work by adding a video feature based on the MPEG-7 "scalable color" descriptor. Adding this feature improves our detection rate over all genres by 5% to 15% for a fixed false positive rate of 10%. We also find that the genres that benefit the most are those with which the previous audio-only was least effective.

  10. Abrupt pH Changes of sea Surface Waters in the sub-Equatorial Pacific Ocean at the end of the Younger Dryas (YD): MC-ICPMS Analysis of Boron Isotopes in Reef Corals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Douville, E.; Paterne, M.; Cabioch, G.; Isnard, H.; Chartier, F.; Bouman, C.; Juillet-Leclerc, A.; Caillon, N.

    2006-12-01

    The paleo-pH-δ^{11}B technique was applied to modern (1950) and ancient Porites sampled from Tahiti (Moorea) and Marquesas Islands in the (sub-Equatorial) Central Pacific Ocean in order to analyze possible past changes of Ocean acidification and past evolution of the Δ pCO2 (pCO2 Atm.- Ocean). The MC-ICP-MS δ^{11}B measurements have an internal reproducibility of 0.1 ‰ (n = 22, NBS 981, 2sigma) and an analytical error of 0.2 ‰ for the samples. Moreover, very rigorous cleaning techniques have been applied on corals resulting in a stunning relationship between B concentration and isotopic composition. By using a fractionation factor ( α4-3 ) of 0.9807 issued from this study, B isotopic composition of modern seawater, and instrumental T, S data, reconstruction of pH values from modern corals agree with in-situ pH measurements at a precision of 0.02 pH-unit. From 11,500 cal. yr to 3250 cal. yr, pH values changed significantly from 8.05 to 8.24, respectively, that is in agreement with previously published estimates from corals (Gaillardet and Allègre, 1995). Our data confirm and quantify a rapid rise of pH values in seawaters at the end of the YD, which strongly coincides with the rate of atmospheric pCO2 changes as observed in EPICA Dome C (Monnin et al., 2001, 2004) suggesting a close relationship between atmospheric and oceanic pCO2 changes. So, the atmospheric pCO2 - pH relationship observed here both in the Central and Western Pacific Ocean (ERDC-92, Palmer and Pearson, 2003) suggests that, not only the high atmospheric CO2 content modified the mean pH values (decreasing trend), but also the rate of atmospheric CO2 changes on shorter timescale. Gaillardet J. and C.J. Allègre, Boron isotopic compositions of corals: seawater or diagenesis record? Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 136, 665-676, 1995. Monnin E., E.J. Steig, U. Siegenthaler, K. Kawamura, J. Schwander, B. Stauffer, T. F. Stocker, D. L. Morse, J.-M. Barnola, B. Bellier, D. Raynaud and H

  11. Detection of Epigenetic Changes Using ANOVA with Spatially Varying Coefficients

    PubMed Central

    Xiao, Guanghua; Wang, Xinlei; LaPlant, Quincey; Nestler, Eric; Xie, Yang

    2016-01-01

    Identification of genome-wide epigenetic changes, the stable changes in gene function without a change in DNA sequence, under various conditions plays an important role in biomedical research. High-throughput epigenetic experiments are useful tools to measure genome-wide epigenetic changes, but the measured intensity levels from these high-resolution genome-wide epigenetic profiling data are often spatially correlated with high noise levels. In addition, no formal statistical method was developed to compare genome-wide epigenetic changes across multiple conditions. In this study, we consider ANOVA models with spatially varying coefficients, combined with a hierarchical Bayes approach, to explicitly model spatial correlation caused by location-dependent biological effects (i.e., epigenetic changes) and borrow strength among neighboring probes to compare epigenetic changes across multiple conditions. Through simulation studies and applications in drug addiction and depression models, we find that our approach compares favorably with competing methods; it is more efficient in estimation and more effective in detecting epigenetic changes. In addition, it can provide biologically meaningful results. PMID:23502341

  12. A structural framework for anomalous change detection and characterization

    SciTech Connect

    Prasad, Lakshman; Theiler, James P

    2009-01-01

    We present a spatially adaptive scheme for automatically searching a pair of images of a scene for unusual and interesting changes. Our motivation is to bring into play structural aspects of image features alongside the spectral attributes used for anomalous change detection (ACD). We leverage a small but informative subset of pixels, namely edge pixels of the images, as anchor points of a Delaunay triangulation to jointly decompose the images into a set of triangular regions, called trixels, which are spectrally uniform. Such decomposition helps in image regularization by simple-function approximation on a feature-adaptive grid. Applying ACD to this trixel grid instead of pixels offers several advantages. It allows: (1) edge-preserving smoothing of images, (2) speed-up of spatial computations by significantly reducing the representation of the images, and (3) the easy recovery of structure of the detected anomalous changes by associating anomalous trixels with polygonal image features. The latter facility further enables the application of shape-theoretic criteria and algorithms to characterize the changes and recognize them as interesting or not. This incorporation of spatial information has the potential to filter out some spurious changes, such as due to parallax, shadows, and misregistration, by identifying and filtering out those that are structurally similar and spatially pervasive. Our framework supports the joint spatial and spectral analysis of images, potentially enabling the design of more robust ACD algorithms.

  13. Refractive index change detection based on porous silicon microarray

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Weirong; Jia, Zhenhong; Li, Peng; Lv, Guodong; Lv, Xiaoyi

    2016-05-01

    By combining photolithography with the electrochemical anodization method, a microarray device of porous silicon (PS) photonic crystal was fabricated on the crystalline silicon substrate. The optical properties of the microarray were analyzed with the transfer matrix method. The relationship between refractive index and reflectivity of each array element of the microarray at 633 nm was also studied, and the array surface reflectivity changes were observed through digital imaging. By means of the reflectivity measurement method, reflectivity changes below 10-3 can be observed based on PS microarray. The results of this study can be applied to the detection of biosensor arrays.

  14. Theory of optimal weighting of data to detect climatic change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bell, T. L.

    1986-01-01

    A search for climatic change predicted by climate models can easily yield unconvincing results because of 'climatic noise,' the inherent, unpredictable variability of time-average atmospheric data. A weighted average of data that maximizes the probability of detecting predicted climatic change is presented. To obtain the optimal weights, an estimate of the covariance matrix of the data from a prior data set is needed. This introduces additional sampling error into the method. This is presently taken into account. A form of the weighted average is found whose probability distribution is independent of the true (but unknown) covariance statistics of the data and of the climate model prediction.

  15. Impact of LANDSAT MSS sensor differences on change detection analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Likens, W. C.; Wrigley, R. C.

    1983-01-01

    Some 512 by 512 pixel subwindows for simultaneously acquired scene pairs obtained by LANDSAT 2,3 and 4 multispectral band scanners were coregistered using LANDSAT 4 scenes as the base to which the other images were registered. Scattergrams between the coregistered scenes (a form of contingency analysis) were used to radiometrically compare data from the various sensors. Mode values were derived and used to visually fit a linear regression. Root mean square errors of the registration varied between .1 and 1.5 pixels. There appear to be no major problem preventing the use of LANDSAT 4 MSS with previous MSS sensors for change detection, provided the noise interference can be removed or minimized. Data normalizations for change detection should be based on the data rather than solely on calibration information. This allows simultaneous normalization of the atmosphere as well as the radiometry.

  16. Changes of protein stiffness during folding detect protein folding intermediates.

    PubMed

    Małek, Katarzyna E; Szoszkiewicz, Robert

    2014-01-01

    Single-molecule force-quench atomic force microscopy (FQ-AFM) is used to detect folding intermediates of a simple protein by detecting changes of molecular stiffness of the protein during its folding process. Those stiffness changes are obtained from shape and peaks of an autocorrelation of fluctuations in end-to-end length of the folding molecule. The results are supported by predictions of the equipartition theorem and agree with existing Langevin dynamics simulations of a simplified model of a protein folding. In the light of the Langevin simulations the experimental data probe an ensemble of random-coiled collapsed states of the protein, which are present both in the force-quench and thermal-quench folding pathways.

  17. [Early detection of cervical cancer in Chile: time for change].

    PubMed

    Léniz Martelli, Javiera; Van De Wyngard, Vanessa; Lagos, Marcela; Barriga, María Isabel; Puschel Illanes, Klaus; Ferreccio Readi, Catterina

    2014-08-01

    Mortality rates for cervical cancer (CC) in Chile are higher than those of developed countries and it has an unequal socioeconomic distribution. The recognition of human papilloma virus (HPV) as the causal agent of cervical cancer in the early 80's changed the prevention paradigms. Current goals are to prevent HPV infection by vaccination before the onset of sexual activity and to detect HPV infection in women older than 30 years. This article reviews CC prevention and early detection methods, discusses relevant evidence to support a change in Chile and presents an innovation proposal. A strategy of primary screening based on HPV detection followed by triage of HPV-positive women by colposcopy in primary care or by cytological or molecular reflex testing is proposed. Due to the existence in Chile of a well-organized nationwide CC prevention program, the replacement of a low-sensitivity screening test such as the Papanicolau test with a highly sensitive one such as HPV detection, could quickly improve the effectiveness of the program. The program also has a network of personnel qualified to conduct naked-eye inspections of the cervix, who could easily be trained to perform triage colposcopy. The incorporation of new prevention strategies could reduce the deaths of Chilean women and correct inequities.

  18. Multiscale object-oriented change detection over urban areas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Jianmei; Li, Deren

    2006-10-01

    Urban growth induces urban spatial expansion in many cities in China. There is a great need for up-to-date information for effective urban decision-making and sustainable development. Many researches have demonstrated that satellite images, especial high resolution images, are very suitable for urban growth studies. However, change detection technique is the key to keep current with the rapid urban growth rate, taking advantage of tremendous amounts of satellite data. In this paper, a multi-scale object-oriented change detection approach integrating GIS and remote sensing is introduced. Firstly, a subset of image is cropped based on existing parcel boundaries stored in GIS database, then a multi-scale watershed transform is carried out to obtain the image objects. The image objects are classified into different land cover types by supervised classification based on their spectral, geometry and texture attributes. Finally a rule-based system is set up to judge every parcel one by one whether or not change happened comparing to existing GIS land use types. In order to verify the application validity of the presented methodology, the rural-urban fringe of Shanghai in China with the support of QuickBird date and GIS is tested, the result shown that it is effective to detect illegal land use parcel.

  19. Abrupt change in magma generation processes across the Central American arc in southeastern Guatemala: flux-dominated melting near the base of the wedge to decompression melting near the top of the wedge

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walker, J. A.; Carr, M. J.; Patino, L. C.; Johnson, C. M.; Feigenson, M. D.; Ward, R. L.

    1995-07-01

    Lavas erupted behind the volcanic front in southeastern Guatemala have many important distinctions from lavas erupted on the volcanic front. These include: generally higher MgO, Nb, Sr, TiO2, and rare earth element concentrations; higher La/Yb and Nb/Y ratios; and lower Ba/La, La/Nb, Ba/Zr and Zr/Nb ratios. These major and trace element distinctions are caused by reduced fractionation during ascent and storage in the crust, lower degrees of melting in the source, and greatly reduced contributions from the subducted Cocos plate in the source. In addition, because all of these important distinctions are even borne in lavas erupted within 20 km of the front, there is little apparent petrogenetic continuity between front and behind-the-front magmas. What little geochemical continuity exists is in radiogenic isotopes: 143Nd/144Nd falls across the arc, Pb isotopic ratios (except 206Pb/204Pb) rise across the arc, and 87Sr/86Sr rise across the arc after an initial discontinuity within 20 km of the front. These continuous across-arc changes in radiogenic isotopes are caused by increased contamination with older, more isotopically disparate rocks, away from the front. Once the effects of crustal contamination are removed, the remaining isotopic variability behind the front is non-systematic and reflects the inherent isotopic heterogeneity of the source, the mantle wedge. Geochemical disconnection in southeastern Guatemala suggests that behind-the-front magmas are produced by decompression melting near the top of the wedge, not by flux-dominated melting near the base of the wedge.

  20. Change Detection Based on Persistent Scatterer Interferometry - a New Method of Monitoring Building Changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, C. H.; Kenduiywo, B. K.; Soergel, U.

    2016-06-01

    Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI) is a technique to detect a network of extracted persistent scatterer (PS) points which feature temporal phase stability and strong radar signal throughout time-series of SAR images. The small surface deformations on such PS points are estimated. PSI particularly works well in monitoring human settlements because regular substructures of man-made objects give rise to large number of PS points. If such structures and/or substructures substantially alter or even vanish due to big change like construction, their PS points are discarded without additional explorations during standard PSI procedure. Such rejected points are called big change (BC) points. On the other hand, incoherent change detection (ICD) relies on local comparison of multi-temporal images (e.g. image difference, image ratio) to highlight scene modifications of larger size rather than detail level. However, image noise inevitably degrades ICD accuracy. We propose a change detection approach based on PSI to synergize benefits of PSI and ICD. PS points are extracted by PSI procedure. A local change index is introduced to quantify probability of a big change for each point. We propose an automatic thresholding method adopting change index to extract BC points along with a clue of the period they emerge. In the end, PS ad BC points are integrated into a change detection image. Our method is tested at a site located around north of Berlin main station where steady, demolished, and erected building substructures are successfully detected. The results are consistent with ground truth derived from time-series of aerial images provided by Google Earth. In addition, we apply our technique for traffic infrastructure, business district, and sports playground monitoring.

  1. Topographic Change Detection Using Full-Waveform Imaging Lidar

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Blair, Bryan; Hofton, Michele A.; Smith, David E. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The capability of wide-footprint (i.e. 10m or greater), full-waveform laser altimeters to penetrate beneath dense vegetation to directly measure the sub-canopy topography provides us with a unique capability for sensing topographic change in the presence of vegetation. We evaluate the feasibility of using a geolocated laser altimeter return waveform instead of individual elevation measurements to measure vertical elevation change within a laser footprint. The method, dubbed the return pulse correlation method, maximizes the shape similarity of nea-coincident, vertically- geolocated laser return waveforms from two observation epochs as they are vertically-shifted relative to each other. First, we evaluate the inherent accuracy of the pulse correlation method using models and simulations under "bare-Earth" conditions. We then analyze the effects of vegetation and vegetation growth on the change detection capability. The use of this method, combined with order of magnitude improvements to laser altimeter swath widths (from 1 km to 10 km) and the potential for a future spaceborne imaging lidar, may provide subcentimeter level relative change detection beneath vegetation to complement IFSAR's ability to make similar measurements in low or vegetation-free conditions.

  2. Symmetrized local co-registration optimization for anomalous change detection

    SciTech Connect

    Wohlberg, Brendt E; Theiler, James P

    2009-01-01

    The goal of anomalous change detection (ACD) is to identify what unusual changes have occurred in a scene, based on two images of the scene taken at different times and under different conditions. The actual anomalous changes need to be distinguished from the incidental differences that occur throughout the imagery, and one of the most common and confounding of these incidental differences is due to the misregistration of the images, due to limitations of the registration pre-processing applied to the image pair. We propose a general method to compensate for residual misregistration in any ACD algorithm which constructs an estimate of the degree of 'anomalousness' for every pixel in the image pair. The method computes a modified misregistration-insensitive anomalousness by making local re-registration adjustments to minimize the local anomalousness. In this paper we describe a symmetrized version of our initial algorithm, and find significant performance improvements in the anomalous change detection ROC curves for a number of real and synthetic data sets.

  3. Object-based rapid change detection for disaster management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thunig, Holger; Michel, Ulrich; Ehlers, Manfred; Reinartz, Peter

    2011-11-01

    Rapid change detection is used in cases of natural hazards and disasters. This analysis lead to quick information about areas of damage. In certain cases the lack of information after catastrophe events is obstructing supporting measures within disaster management. Earthquakes, tsunamis, civil war, volcanic eruption, droughts and floods have much in common: people are directly affected, landscapes and buildings are destroyed. In every case geospatial data is necessary to gain knowledge as basement for decision support. Where to go first? Which infrastructure is usable? How much area is affected? These are essential questions which need to be answered before appropriate, eligible help can be established. This study presents an innovative strategy to retrieve post event information by use of an object-based change detection approach. Within a transferable framework, the developed algorithms can be implemented for a set of remote sensing data among different investigation areas. Several case studies are the base for the retrieved results. Within a coarse dividing into statistical parts and the segmentation in meaningful objects, the framework is able to deal with different types of change. By means of an elaborated normalized temporal change index (NTCI) panchromatic datasets are used to extract areas which are destroyed, areas which were not affected and in addition areas which are developing new for cases where rebuilding has already started. The results of the study are also feasible for monitoring urban growth.

  4. Vegetation change detection in the Savannah River swamp

    SciTech Connect

    Jensen, J.R.; Christensen, E.J.; Mackey, H.E. Jr.

    1986-01-01

    Portions of Pen Branch, Four Mile Creek, Steel Creek, and Beaver Dam Creek deltas in the Savannah River swamp were evaluated for wetlands vegetation change using aircraft multispectral scanner (MSS) data acquired at 2440 meters altitude. Areas of 190 hectares on the Pen Branch, Four Mile Creek, and Beaver Dam Creek deltas, and a 240-hectare portion of Steel Creek delta were registered, classified, and wetlands vegetation change detection categories determined. Pen Branch and Four Mile Creek deltas each lost about 12 hectares of swamp forest from 1981 to 1984. Secondary successional forest regrew on portions of the Four Mile Creek delta (2.4 hectares) and the Beaver Dam Creek delta (15.4 hectares). About 5 hectares of swamp forest regrew on the Steel Creek delta. This may be the first study to detect wetlands vegetation change over several years using aircraft MSS data. One reason could be due to difficulties similar to those encountered in this study. Data distortion from aircraft movement in some areas of the swamp made image-to-image registration difficult. Best results were obtained on Beaver Dam Creek and Steel Creek deltas which had average registration accuracies within one data element, or pixel, of 5.6 x 5.6 meters. Phenological differences and shadows caused difficulties in vegetation-type discrimination and classification. As a result, the number of vegetation change classes were sometimes limited.

  5. A method for detecting changes in long time series

    SciTech Connect

    Downing, D.J.; Lawkins, W.F.; Morris, M.D.; Ostrouchov, G.

    1995-09-01

    Modern scientific activities, both physical and computational, can result in time series of many thousands or even millions of data values. Here the authors describe a statistically motivated algorithm for quick screening of very long time series data for the presence of potentially interesting but arbitrary changes. The basic data model is a stationary Gaussian stochastic process, and the approach to detecting a change is the comparison of two predictions of the series at a time point or contiguous collection of time points. One prediction is a ``forecast``, i.e. based on data from earlier times, while the other a ``backcast``, i.e. based on data from later times. The statistic is the absolute value of the log-likelihood ratio for these two predictions, evaluated at the observed data. A conservative procedure is suggested for specifying critical values for the statistic under the null hypothesis of ``no change``.

  6. Detecting a trend change in cross-border epidemic transmission

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maeno, Yoshiharu

    2016-09-01

    A method for a system of Langevin equations is developed for detecting a trend change in cross-border epidemic transmission. The equations represent a standard epidemiological SIR compartment model and a meta-population network model. The method analyzes a time series of the number of new cases reported in multiple geographical regions. The method is applicable to investigating the efficacy of the implemented public health intervention in managing infectious travelers across borders. It is found that the change point of the probability of travel movements was one week after the WHO worldwide alert on the SARS outbreak in 2003. The alert was effective in managing infectious travelers. On the other hand, it is found that the probability of travel movements did not change at all for the flu pandemic in 2009. The pandemic did not affect potential travelers despite the WHO alert.

  7. Automated baseline change detection -- Phases 1 and 2. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Byler, E.

    1997-10-31

    The primary objective of this project is to apply robotic and optical sensor technology to the operational inspection of mixed toxic and radioactive waste stored in barrels, using Automated Baseline Change Detection (ABCD), based on image subtraction. Absolute change detection is based on detecting any visible physical changes, regardless of cause, between a current inspection image of a barrel and an archived baseline image of the same barrel. Thus, in addition to rust, the ABCD system can also detect corrosion, leaks, dents, and bulges. The ABCD approach and method rely on precise camera positioning and repositioning relative to the barrel and on feature recognition in images. The ABCD image processing software was installed on a robotic vehicle developed under a related DOE/FETC contract DE-AC21-92MC29112 Intelligent Mobile Sensor System (IMSS) and integrated with the electronics and software. This vehicle was designed especially to navigate in DOE Waste Storage Facilities. Initial system testing was performed at Fernald in June 1996. After some further development and more extensive integration the prototype integrated system was installed and tested at the Radioactive Waste Management Facility (RWMC) at INEEL beginning in April 1997 through the present (November 1997). The integrated system, composed of ABCD imaging software and IMSS mobility base, is called MISS EVE (Mobile Intelligent Sensor System--Environmental Validation Expert). Evaluation of the integrated system in RWMC Building 628, containing approximately 10,000 drums, demonstrated an easy to use system with the ability to properly navigate through the facility, image all the defined drums, and process the results into a report delivered to the operator on a GUI interface and on hard copy. Further work is needed to make the brassboard system more operationally robust.

  8. Multi-driver attribution of detected hydrological change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harrigan, Shaun; Murphy, Conor; Hall, Julia; Wilby, Robert L.; Sweeney, John

    2014-05-01

    There is growing evidence that significant links between large-scale climate indices and streamflow over decadal time-scales can be established. However identifying the dominant driving mechanism(s) of detected changes in streamflow (i.e. attribution) at the catchment scale is a challenging task due to the confounding influence of human disturbances such as land-use changes, water abstractions, and river engineering. This study addresses this challenge by examining the utility of the multiple working hypotheses framework in moving towards more rigorous attribution of changes using the Boyne catchment in the east of Ireland as a case study. Previous research on this catchment found that a large upward change point in streamflow during the mid-1970s corresponded with a shift in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index towards a more positive phase, bringing increased precipitation, and hence increased risk of flooding. Here, the single-driver analysis is extended to include multiple factors causing change within the catchment (both climatic and internal) in order to establish relative contributions of hypothesised drivers. Rainfall-runoff models were employed to reconstruct streamflow to isolate the effect of climate taking account of both model structure and parameter uncertainty. The Mann-Kendall test for monotonic trend and Pettitt change point test were applied to explore signatures of change. Results show that the detected increase in annual mean and high flows was not predominantly driven by changes in precipitation as a result of a shift in the NAO index. Rather we assert that the dominant driver of change was arterial drainage and the contemporaneous onset of agricultural field drainage in the 1970s and early 1980s. It is also demonstrated that attribution can be more complex at different time-scales with multiple drivers acting simultaneously. This study emphasises the quantity and range of data types needed for rigorous attribution, especially when

  9. Change detection of built-up land: A framework of combining pixel-based detection and object-based recognition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiao, Pengfeng; Zhang, Xueliang; Wang, Dongguang; Yuan, Min; Feng, Xuezhi; Kelly, Maggi

    2016-09-01

    This study proposed a new framework that combines pixel-level change detection and object-level recognition to detect changes of built-up land from high-spatial resolution remote sensing images. First, an adaptive differencing method was designed to detect changes at the pixel level based on both spectral and textural features. Next, the changed pixels were subjected to a set of morphological operations to improve the completeness and to generate changed objects, achieving the transition of change detection from the pixel level to the object level. The changed objects were further recognised through the difference of morphological building index in two phases to indicate changed objects on built-up land. The transformation from changed pixels to changed objects makes the proposed framework distinct with both the pixel-based and the object-based change detection methods. Compared with the pixel-based methods, the proposed framework can improve the change detection capability through the transformation and successive recognition of objects. Compared with the object-based method, the proposed framework avoids the issue of multitemporal segmentation and can generate changed objects directly from changed pixels. The experimental results show the effectiveness of the transformation from changed pixels to changed objects and the successive object-based recognition on improving the detection accuracy, which justify the application potential of the proposed change detection framework.

  10. Effects of spatial configurations on visual change detection: an account of bias changes.

    PubMed

    Boduroglu, Aysecan; Shah, Priti

    2009-12-01

    In order to determine whether people encode spatial configuration information when encoding visual displays, in four experiments, we investigated whether changes in task-irrelevant spatial configuration information would influence color change detection accuracy. In a change detection task, when objects in the test display were presented in new random locations, rather than identical or different locations preserving the overall configuration, participants were more likely to report that the colors had changed. This consistent bias across four experiments suggested that people encode task-irrelevant spatial configuration along with object information. Experiment 4 also demonstrated that only a low-false-alarm group of participants effectively bound spatial configuration information to object information, suggesting that these types of binding processes are open to strategic influences.

  11. Anomalies in the detection of change: When changes in sample size are mistaken for changes in proportions.

    PubMed

    Fiedler, Klaus; Kareev, Yaakov; Avrahami, Judith; Beier, Susanne; Kutzner, Florian; Hütter, Mandy

    2016-01-01

    Detecting changes, in performance, sales, markets, risks, social relations, or public opinions, constitutes an important adaptive function. In a sequential paradigm devised to investigate detection of change, every trial provides a sample of binary outcomes (e.g., correct vs. incorrect student responses). Participants have to decide whether the proportion of a focal feature (e.g., correct responses) in the population from which the sample is drawn has decreased, remained constant, or increased. Strong and persistent anomalies in change detection arise when changes in proportional quantities vary orthogonally to changes in absolute sample size. Proportional increases are readily detected and nonchanges are erroneously perceived as increases when absolute sample size increases. Conversely, decreasing sample size facilitates the correct detection of proportional decreases and the erroneous perception of nonchanges as decreases. These anomalies are however confined to experienced samples of elementary raw events from which proportions have to be inferred inductively. They disappear when sample proportions are described as percentages in a normalized probability format. To explain these challenging findings, it is essential to understand the inductive-learning constraints imposed on decisions from experience.

  12. Street environment change detection from mobile laser scanning point clouds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiao, Wen; Vallet, Bruno; Brédif, Mathieu; Paparoditis, Nicolas

    2015-09-01

    Mobile laser scanning (MLS) has become a popular technique for road inventory, building modelling, infrastructure management, mobility assessment, etc. Meanwhile, due to the high mobility of MLS systems, it is easy to revisit interested areas. However, change detection using MLS data of street environment has seldom been studied. In this paper, an approach that combines occupancy grids and a distance-based method for change detection from MLS point clouds is proposed. Unlike conventional occupancy grids, our occupancy-based method models space based on scanning rays and local point distributions in 3D without voxelization. A local cylindrical reference frame is presented for the interpolation of occupancy between rays according to the scanning geometry. The Dempster-Shafer theory (DST) is utilized for both intra-data evidence fusion and inter-data consistency assessment. Occupancy of reference point cloud is fused at the location of target points and then the consistency is evaluated directly on the points. A point-to-triangle (PTT) distance-based method is combined to improve the occupancy-based method. Because it is robust to penetrable objects, e.g. vegetation, which cause self-conflicts when modelling occupancy. The combined method tackles irregular point density and occlusion problems, also eliminates false detections on penetrable objects.

  13. Vehicle Localization by LIDAR Point Correlation Improved by Change Detection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schlichting, A.; Brenner, C.

    2016-06-01

    LiDAR sensors are proven sensors for accurate vehicle localization. Instead of detecting and matching features in the LiDAR data, we want to use the entire information provided by the scanners. As dynamic objects, like cars, pedestrians or even construction sites could lead to wrong localization results, we use a change detection algorithm to detect these objects in the reference data. If an object occurs in a certain number of measurements at the same position, we mark it and every containing point as static. In the next step, we merge the data of the single measurement epochs to one reference dataset, whereby we only use static points. Further, we also use a classification algorithm to detect trees. For the online localization of the vehicle, we use simulated data of a vertical aligned automotive LiDAR sensor. As we only want to use static objects in this case as well, we use a random forest classifier to detect dynamic scan points online. Since the automotive data is derived from the LiDAR Mobile Mapping System, we are able to use the labelled objects from the reference data generation step to create the training data and further to detect dynamic objects online. The localization then can be done by a point to image correlation method using only static objects. We achieved a localization standard deviation of about 5 cm (position) and 0.06° (heading), and were able to successfully localize the vehicle in about 93 % of the cases along a trajectory of 13 km in Hannover, Germany.

  14. Fault Diagnostics Using Statistical Change Detection in the Bispectral Domain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eugene Parker, B.; Ware, H. A.; Wipf, D. P.; Tompkins, W. R.; Clark, B. R.; Larson, E. C.; Vincent Poor, H.

    2000-07-01

    It is widely accepted that structural defects in rotating machinery components (e.g. bearings and gears) can be detected through monitoring of vibration and/or sound emissions. Traditional diagnostic vibration analysis attempts to match spectral lines with a priori -known defect frequencies that are characteristic of the affected machinery components. Emphasis herein is on use of bispectral-based statistical change detection algorithms for machinery health monitoring. The bispectrum, a third-order statistic, helps identify pairs of phase-related spectral components, which is useful for fault detection and isolation. In particular, the bispectrum helps sort through the clutter of usual (second-order) vibration spectra to extract useful information associated with the health of particular components. Seeded and non-seeded helicopter gearbox fault results (CH-46E and CH-47D, respectively) show that bispectral algorithms can detect faults at the level of an individual component (i.e. bearings or gears). Fault isolation is implicit with detection based on characteristic a priori -known defect frequencies. Important attributes of the bispectral SCD approach include: (1) it does not require a priori training data as is needed for traditional pattern-classifier-based approaches (and thereby avoids the significant time and cost investments necessary to obtain such data); (2) being based on higher-order moment-based energy detection, it makes no assumptions about the statistical model of the bispectral sequences that are generated; (3) it is operating-regime independent (i.e. works across different operating conditions, flight regimes, torque levels, etc., without knowledge of same); (4) it can be used to isolate faults to the level of specific machinery components (e.g. bearings and gears); and (5) it can be implemented using relatively inexpensive computer hardware, since only low-frequency vibrations need to be processed. The bispectral SCD algorithm thus represents a

  15. ROLE OF SPATIAL RESOLUTION AND SPECTRAL CONTENT IN CHANGE DETECTION.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Milazzo, Valerie A.

    1984-01-01

    Summary form only given, as follows. Advancements in remote sensing technology have brought improvements and sophistication to modern remote sensor systems, especially those aboard earth resources satellites. These improvements have considerbly expanded the capabilities of the newer sensor systems, particularly the capability to achieve greatly increased spatial and spectral resolution levels. The debate still lingers, however, over whether future systems should maximize spatial resolution or spectral information, or both. As yet, the high costs and large volumes of data associated with even modest incremental improvements in spatial and spectral content have precluded the design of a single system that attempts to fully optimize both. Thus, the user is faced with having to choose between those systems providing high spatial resolutions but limited spectral information and those which offer a broad range of spectral data but hold spatial resolution to a less than optimum level. In this study, the contribution of both spatial resolution and spectral content to land cover change detection is examined. Ten-meter SPOT simulation imagery is compared with multispectral images acquired by the Thematic Mapper sensor system for use in the visual interpretation and mapping of changes. Several image processing and enhancement techniques are utilized to maximize the spatial and spectral data content offered by each system. Results indicate that when using visual image interpretation techniques to detect change, higher spatial resolutions are generally preferred over increased spectral content.

  16. Vibration-based monitoring to detect mass changes in satellites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maji, Arup; Vernon, Breck

    2012-04-01

    Vibration-based structural health monitoring could be a useful form of determining the health and safety of space structures. A particular concern is the possibility of a foreign object that attaches itself to a satellite in orbit for adverse reasons. A frequency response analysis was used to determine the changes in mass and moment of inertia of the space structure based on a change in the natural frequencies of the structure or components of the structure. Feasibility studies were first conducted on a 7 in x 19 in aluminum plate with various boundary conditions. Effect of environmental conditions on the frequency response was determined. The baseline frequency response for the plate was then used as the basis for detection of the addition, and possibly the location, of added masses on the plate. The test results were compared to both analytical solutions and finite element models created in SAP2000. The testing was subsequently expanded to aluminum alloy satellite panels and a mock satellite with dummy payloads. Statistical analysis was conducted on variations of frequency due to added mass and thermal changes to determine the threshold of added mass that can be detected.

  17. Automatic detection of unattended changes in room acoustics.

    PubMed

    Frey, Johannes Daniel; Wendt, Mike; Jacobsen, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    Previous research has shown that the human auditory system continuously monitors its acoustic environment, detecting a variety of irregularities (e.g., deviance from prior stimulation regularity in pitch, loudness, duration, and (perceived) sound source location). Detection of irregularities can be inferred from a component of the event-related brain potential (ERP), referred to as the mismatch negativity (MMN), even in conditions in which participants are instructed to ignore the auditory stimulation. The current study extends previous findings by demonstrating that auditory irregularities brought about by a change in room acoustics elicit a MMN in a passive oddball protocol (acoustic stimuli with differing room acoustics, that were otherwise identical, were employed as standard and deviant stimuli), in which participants watched a fiction movie (silent with subtitles). While the majority of participants reported no awareness for any changes in the auditory stimulation, only one out of 14 participants reported to have become aware of changing room acoustics or sound source location. Together, these findings suggest automatic monitoring of room acoustics.

  18. Change and Anomaly Detection in Real-Time GPS Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Granat, R.; Pierce, M.; Gao, X.; Bock, Y.

    2008-12-01

    The California Real-Time Network (CRTN) is currently generating real-time GPS position data at a rate of 1-2Hz at over 80 locations. The CRTN data presents the possibility of studying dynamical solid earth processes in a way that complements existing seismic networks. To realize this possibility we have developed a prototype system for detecting changes and anomalies in the real-time data. Through this system, we can can correlate changes in multiple stations in order to detect signals with geographical extent. Our approach involves developing a statistical model for each GPS station in the network, and then using those models to segment the time series into a number of discrete states described by the model. We use a hidden Markov model (HMM) to describe the behavior of each station; fitting the model to the data requires neither labeled training examples nor a priori information about the system. As such, HMMs are well suited to this problem domain, in which the data remains largely uncharacterized. There are two main components to our approach. The first is the model fitting algorithm, regularized deterministic annealing expectation- maximization (RDAEM), which provides robust, high-quality results. The second is a web service infrastructure that connects the data to the statistical modeling analysis and allows us to easily present the results of that analysis through a web portal interface. This web service approach facilitates the automatic updating of station models to keep pace with dynamical changes in the data. Our web portal interface is critical to the process of interpreting the data. A Google Maps interface allows users to visually interpret state changes not only on individual stations but across the entire network. Users can drill down from the map interface to inspect detailed results for individual stations, download the time series data, and inspect fitted models. Alternatively, users can use the web portal look at the evolution of changes on the

  19. Visual change detection recruits auditory cortices in early deafness.

    PubMed

    Bottari, Davide; Heimler, Benedetta; Caclin, Anne; Dalmolin, Anna; Giard, Marie-Hélène; Pavani, Francesco

    2014-07-01

    Although cross-modal recruitment of early sensory areas in deafness and blindness is well established, the constraints and limits of these plastic changes remain to be understood. In the case of human deafness, for instance, it is known that visual, tactile or visuo-tactile stimuli can elicit a response within the auditory cortices. Nonetheless, both the timing of these evoked responses and the functional contribution of cross-modally recruited areas remain to be ascertained. In the present study, we examined to what extent auditory cortices of deaf humans participate in high-order visual processes, such as visual change detection. By measuring visual ERPs, in particular the visual MisMatch Negativity (vMMN), and performing source localization, we show that individuals with early deafness (N=12) recruit the auditory cortices when a change in motion direction during shape deformation occurs in a continuous visual motion stream. Remarkably this "auditory" response for visual events emerged with the same timing as the visual MMN in hearing controls (N=12), between 150 and 300 ms after the visual change. Furthermore, the recruitment of auditory cortices for visual change detection in early deaf was paired with a reduction of response within the visual system, indicating a shift from visual to auditory cortices of part of the computational process. The present study suggests that the deafened auditory cortices participate at extracting and storing the visual information and at comparing on-line the upcoming visual events, thus indicating that cross-modally recruited auditory cortices can reach this level of computation.

  20. Abrupt drainage cycles of the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet.

    PubMed

    Soulet, Guillaume; Ménot, Guillemette; Bayon, Germain; Rostek, Frauke; Ponzevera, Emmanuel; Toucanne, Samuel; Lericolais, Gilles; Bard, Edouard

    2013-04-23

    Continental ice sheets are a key component of the Earth's climate system, but their internal dynamics need to be further studied. Since the last deglaciation, the northern Eurasian Fennoscandian Ice Sheet (FIS) has been connected to the Black Sea (BS) watershed, making this basin a suitable location to investigate former ice-sheet dynamics. Here, from a core retrieved in the BS, we combine the use of neodymium isotopes, high-resolution elemental analysis, and biomarkers to trace changes in sediment provenance and river runoff. We reveal cyclic releases of meltwater originating from Lake Disna, a proglacial lake linked to the FIS during Heinrich Stadial 1. Regional interactions within the climate-lake-FIS system, linked to changes in the availability of subglacial water, led to abrupt drainage cycles of the FIS into the BS watershed. This phenomenon raised the BS water level by ∼100 m until the sill of the Bosphorus Strait was reached, flooding the vast northwestern BS shelf and deeply affecting the hydrology and circulation of the BS and, probably, of the Marmara and Aegean Seas.

  1. Abrupt drainage cycles of the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet

    PubMed Central

    Soulet, Guillaume; Ménot, Guillemette; Bayon, Germain; Rostek, Frauke; Ponzevera, Emmanuel; Toucanne, Samuel; Lericolais, Gilles; Bard, Edouard

    2013-01-01

    Continental ice sheets are a key component of the Earth’s climate system, but their internal dynamics need to be further studied. Since the last deglaciation, the northern Eurasian Fennoscandian Ice Sheet (FIS) has been connected to the Black Sea (BS) watershed, making this basin a suitable location to investigate former ice-sheet dynamics. Here, from a core retrieved in the BS, we combine the use of neodymium isotopes, high-resolution elemental analysis, and biomarkers to trace changes in sediment provenance and river runoff. We reveal cyclic releases of meltwater originating from Lake Disna, a proglacial lake linked to the FIS during Heinrich Stadial 1. Regional interactions within the climate–lake–FIS system, linked to changes in the availability of subglacial water, led to abrupt drainage cycles of the FIS into the BS watershed. This phenomenon raised the BS water level by ∼100 m until the sill of the Bosphorus Strait was reached, flooding the vast northwestern BS shelf and deeply affecting the hydrology and circulation of the BS and, probably, of the Marmara and Aegean Seas. PMID:23569264

  2. Trend Analysis and Detection of Changes in the Stratospheric Circulation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Oman, Luke; Douglass, A. R.; Rodriquez, J. M.; Stolarski, R. S.; Waugh, D. W.

    2010-01-01

    Increases in the circulation of the stratosphere appear to be a robust result of climate change in chemistry-climate models over decadal time scales. To date observations have yet to show a significant change in this circulation. It is important for the design of future observational missions to identify suitable atmospheric constituents and to determine the accuracy and length of record needed to identify a significant trend that can be attributed to circulation change. First, we determine what atmospheric variables can be used as proxies for stratospheric circulation changes. A few examples are changes in tropical lower stratospheric ozone, phase lag of the water vapor tape recorder, CO2, and SF6. Then, using both the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOS CCM) and observations from satellites and balloon soundings, we calculate the number of years needed to detect a significant trend, taking into account observational uncertainty. Model simulations will be evaluated to see how well they represent observed variability. In addition, the impacts of autocorrelation among the output or data and gaps in the observational record will be discussed.

  3. Spatio-temporal change detection from multidimensional arrays: Detecting deforestation from MODIS time series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lu, Meng; Pebesma, Edzer; Sanchez, Alber; Verbesselt, Jan

    2016-07-01

    Growing availability of long-term satellite imagery enables change modeling with advanced spatio-temporal statistical methods. Multidimensional arrays naturally match the structure of spatio-temporal satellite data and can provide a clean modeling process for complex spatio-temporal analysis over large datasets. Our study case illustrates the detection of breakpoints in MODIS imagery time series for land cover change in the Brazilian Amazon using the BFAST (Breaks For Additive Season and Trend) change detection framework. BFAST includes an Empirical Fluctuation Process (EFP) to alarm the change and a change point time locating process. We extend the EFP to account for the spatial autocorrelation between spatial neighbors and assess the effects of spatial correlation when applying BFAST on satellite image time series. In addition, we evaluate how sensitive EFP is to the assumption that its time series residuals are temporally uncorrelated, by modeling it as an autoregressive process. We use arrays as a unified data structure for the modeling process, R to execute the analysis, and an array database management system to scale computation. Our results point to BFAST as a robust approach against mild temporal and spatial correlation, to the use of arrays to ease the modeling process of spatio-temporal change, and towards communicable and scalable analysis.

  4. Collective Behavior of Market Participants during Abrupt Stock Price Changes

    PubMed Central

    Maskawa, Jun-ichi

    2016-01-01

    Under uncertainty, human and animal collectives often respond stochastically to events they encounter. Human or animal individuals behave depending on others’ actions, and sometimes follow choices that are sub-optimal for individuals. Such mimetic behaviors are enhanced during emergencies, creating collective behavior of a group. A stock market that is about to crash, as markets did immediately after the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, provides illustrative examples of such behaviors. We provide empirical evidence proving the existence of collective behavior among stock market participants in emergent situations. We investigated the resolution of extreme supply-and-demand order imbalances by increased balancing counter orders: buy and sell orders for excess supply and demand respectively, during times of price adjustment, so-called special quotes on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Counter orders increase positively depending on the quantity of revealed counter orders: the accumulated orders in the book until then. Statistics of the coming counter order are well described using a logistic regression model with the ratio of revealed orders until then to the finally revealed orders as the explanatory variable. Results given here show that the market participants make Bayesian estimations of optimal choices to ascertain whether to order using information about orders of other participants. PMID:27513335

  5. Collective Behavior of Market Participants during Abrupt Stock Price Changes.

    PubMed

    Maskawa, Jun-Ichi

    2016-01-01

    Under uncertainty, human and animal collectives often respond stochastically to events they encounter. Human or animal individuals behave depending on others' actions, and sometimes follow choices that are sub-optimal for individuals. Such mimetic behaviors are enhanced during emergencies, creating collective behavior of a group. A stock market that is about to crash, as markets did immediately after the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, provides illustrative examples of such behaviors. We provide empirical evidence proving the existence of collective behavior among stock market participants in emergent situations. We investigated the resolution of extreme supply-and-demand order imbalances by increased balancing counter orders: buy and sell orders for excess supply and demand respectively, during times of price adjustment, so-called special quotes on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Counter orders increase positively depending on the quantity of revealed counter orders: the accumulated orders in the book until then. Statistics of the coming counter order are well described using a logistic regression model with the ratio of revealed orders until then to the finally revealed orders as the explanatory variable. Results given here show that the market participants make Bayesian estimations of optimal choices to ascertain whether to order using information about orders of other participants.

  6. Competitive SWIFT cluster templates enhance detection of aging changes

    PubMed Central

    Rebhahn, Jonathan A.; Roumanes, David R.; Qi, Yilin; Khan, Atif; Thakar, Juilee; Rosenberg, Alex; Lee, F. Eun‐Hyung; Quataert, Sally A.; Sharma, Gaurav

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Clustering‐based algorithms for automated analysis of flow cytometry datasets have achieved more efficient and objective analysis than manual processing. Clustering organizes flow cytometry data into subpopulations with substantially homogenous characteristics but does not directly address the important problem of identifying the salient differences in subpopulations between subjects and groups. Here, we address this problem by augmenting SWIFT—a mixture model based clustering algorithm reported previously. First, we show that SWIFT clustering using a “template” mixture model, in which all subpopulations are represented, identifies small differences in cell numbers per subpopulation between samples. Second, we demonstrate that resolution of inter‐sample differences is increased by “competition” wherein a joint model is formed by combining the mixture model templates obtained from different groups. In the joint model, clusters from individual groups compete for the assignment of cells, sharpening differences between samples, particularly differences representing subpopulation shifts that are masked under clustering with a single template model. The benefit of competition was demonstrated first with a semisynthetic dataset obtained by deliberately shifting a known subpopulation within an actual flow cytometry sample. Single templates correctly identified changes in the number of cells in the subpopulation, but only the competition method detected small changes in median fluorescence. In further validation studies, competition identified a larger number of significantly altered subpopulations between young and elderly subjects. This enrichment was specific, because competition between templates from consensus male and female samples did not improve the detection of age‐related differences. Several changes between the young and elderly identified by SWIFT template competition were consistent with known alterations in the elderly, and additional

  7. Competitive SWIFT cluster templates enhance detection of aging changes.

    PubMed

    Rebhahn, Jonathan A; Roumanes, David R; Qi, Yilin; Khan, Atif; Thakar, Juilee; Rosenberg, Alex; Lee, F Eun-Hyung; Quataert, Sally A; Sharma, Gaurav; Mosmann, Tim R

    2016-01-01

    Clustering-based algorithms for automated analysis of flow cytometry datasets have achieved more efficient and objective analysis than manual processing. Clustering organizes flow cytometry data into subpopulations with substantially homogenous characteristics but does not directly address the important problem of identifying the salient differences in subpopulations between subjects and groups. Here, we address this problem by augmenting SWIFT--a mixture model based clustering algorithm reported previously. First, we show that SWIFT clustering using a "template" mixture model, in which all subpopulations are represented, identifies small differences in cell numbers per subpopulation between samples. Second, we demonstrate that resolution of inter-sample differences is increased by "competition" wherein a joint model is formed by combining the mixture model templates obtained from different groups. In the joint model, clusters from individual groups compete for the assignment of cells, sharpening differences between samples, particularly differences representing subpopulation shifts that are masked under clustering with a single template model. The benefit of competition was demonstrated first with a semisynthetic dataset obtained by deliberately shifting a known subpopulation within an actual flow cytometry sample. Single templates correctly identified changes in the number of cells in the subpopulation, but only the competition method detected small changes in median fluorescence. In further validation studies, competition identified a larger number of significantly altered subpopulations between young and elderly subjects. This enrichment was specific, because competition between templates from consensus male and female samples did not improve the detection of age-related differences. Several changes between the young and elderly identified by SWIFT template competition were consistent with known alterations in the elderly, and additional altered subpopulations

  8. Causes and projections of abrupt climate-driven ecosystem shifts in the North Atlantic.

    PubMed

    Beaugrand, Grégory; Edwards, Martin; Brander, Keith; Luczak, Christophe; Ibanez, Frederic

    2008-11-01

    Warming of the global climate is now unequivocal and its impact on Earth' functional units has become more apparent. Here, we show that marine ecosystems are not equally sensitive to climate change and reveal a critical thermal boundary where a small increase in temperature triggers abrupt ecosystem shifts seen across multiple trophic levels. This large-scale boundary is located in regions where abrupt ecosystem shifts have been reported in the North Atlantic sector and thereby allows us to link these shifts by a global common phenomenon. We show that these changes alter the biodiversity and carrying capacity of ecosystems and may, combined with fishing, precipitate the reduction of some stocks of Atlantic cod already severely impacted by exploitation. These findings offer a way to anticipate major ecosystem changes and to propose adaptive strategies for marine exploited resources such as cod in order to minimize social and economic consequences.

  9. GPU based detection of topological changes in Voronoi diagrams

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bernaschi, M.; Lulli, M.; Sbragaglia, M.

    2017-04-01

    The Voronoi diagrams are an important tool having theoretical and practical applications in a large number of fields. We present a new procedure, implemented as a set of CUDA kernels, which detects, in a general and efficient way, topological changes in case of dynamic Voronoi diagrams whose generating points move in time. The solution that we provide has been originally developed to identify plastic events during simulations of soft-glassy materials based on a lattice Boltzmann model with frustrated-short range attractive and mid/long-range repulsive-interactions. Along with the description of our approach, we present also some preliminary physics results.

  10. Image change detection systems, methods, and articles of manufacture

    DOEpatents

    Jones, James L.; Lassahn, Gordon D.; Lancaster, Gregory D.

    2010-01-05

    Aspects of the invention relate to image change detection systems, methods, and articles of manufacture. According to one aspect, a method of identifying differences between a plurality of images is described. The method includes loading a source image and a target image into memory of a computer, constructing source and target edge images from the source and target images to enable processing of multiband images, displaying the source and target images on a display device of the computer, aligning the source and target edge images, switching displaying of the source image and the target image on the display device, to enable identification of differences between the source image and the target image.

  11. A New Maximum-Likelihood Change Estimator for Two-Pass SAR Coherent Change Detection.

    SciTech Connect

    Wahl, Daniel E.; Yocky, David A.; Jakowatz, Charles V,

    2014-09-01

    In this paper, we derive a new optimal change metric to be used in synthetic aperture RADAR (SAR) coherent change detection (CCD). Previous CCD methods tend to produce false alarm states (showing change when there is none) in areas of the image that have a low clutter-to-noise power ratio (CNR). The new estimator does not suffer from this shortcoming. It is a surprisingly simple expression, easy to implement, and is optimal in the maximum-likelihood (ML) sense. The estimator produces very impressive results on the CCD collects that we have tested.

  12. Placental Abruption Revealed by Hemoperitoneum: A Case Report

    PubMed Central

    Bertholdt, C.; Vincent-Rohfritsch, A.; Tsatsaris, V.; Goffinet, F.

    2016-01-01

    Background Hemoperitoneum is a life-threatening surgical emergency. Diagnosis of the cause is often difficult, in particular, during pregnancy when it may be either obstetric or nonobstetric. Case We report the case of a hemoperitoneum caused by the backflow of blood through a uterine tube, due to placental abruption. Conclusion Hemoperitoneum in pregnant women with no other signs can reveal placental abruption. The difficulty in identifying the cause may delay appropriate management. PMID:27994944

  13. Persistent Atlantic cold-water spells into the Mediterranean caused abrupt aridities in the late Quaternary Levant

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stein, M.; Bartov, Y.; Enzel, Y.; Goldstein, S. L.; Torfstein, A.; Waldmann, N.

    2007-12-01

    The late Quaternary Levant paleohydrology and paleoclimate were recorded in the sedimentary and level history of lakes that occupied the tectonic depressions along the Dead Sea rift. The region was characterized by cold - wet climate conditions during glacials and warm-dry conditions during interglacials. This pattern was punctuated by abrupt arid events (< 200 y) that are correlated with intrusions of cold Atlantic-water into the east Mediterranean. Important examples are the abrupt falls of Lake Lisan during the Heinrich events, the catastrophic falls of Lake Lisan at the 14 and 11th millennium BP that were linked to "melt water pulses" MWP1-A and B. The Allerod fall marked the severest catastrophic aridity that prevailed in the late Quaternary Levant where the intruding cold waters enhanced the post-glacial warming - aridification trend. Subsequently, during the YD, the North Atlantic-cooling imposed a strong deviation from the post-Glacial warming-aridification trend of the Levant leading to enhanced-rain precipitation (return to the "glacial mode"). Bartov et al. (2003) proposed that the intruding cold water stopped the cyclonic uptake of vapor from the Mediterranean to the atmosphere, shutting the Levant rains. It seems that the YD cooling was associated with atmospheric changes, probably stronger effects of the Polar fronts and Westerlies that brought more rains to the Levant. Similar effects of cold seawater intrusions on the regional climate can be detected throughout the Holocene causing possibly the significant aridities of ca. 8.1, 3.5 and possibly the Medieval warming. The rapidity of the response of the regional hydrological systems to the global climate changes and the sensitivity of past human cultures to these changes (e.g. the collapse of the Natufian culture during the Allerod aridity) are certainly important lessons and alarming signals for our human society.

  14. Detection of concealed ground targets in CARABAS SAR images using change detection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ulander, Lars M.; Froelind, Per-Olov; Gustavsson, Anders; Hellsten, Hans; Larsson, Bjoern

    1999-08-01

    The paper describes a new method to detect man-made objects hidden under foliage or camouflage. The method is based on change detection and thus multiple revisits of the same area. It uses SAR image data provided by the low-frequency and ultra-wideband CARABAS SAR system which operate in the 20 - 90 MHz frequency range. Experimental results show a drastic reduction in false-alarm rate compared to methods based on single-pass SAR images. Small- to medium-sized trucks are consistently detected with a false-alarm rate of the order of 0.1 - 1 per km2. This level of false-alarm rate is quite sufficient for most military or civilian applications of interest.

  15. Onboard Data Processor for Change-Detection Radar Imaging

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lou, Yunling; Muellerschoen, Ronald J.; Chien, Steve A.; Saatchi, Sasan S.; Clark, Duane

    2008-01-01

    A computer system denoted a change-detection onboard processor (CDOP) is being developed as a means of processing the digitized output of a synthetic-aperture radar (SAR) apparatus aboard an aircraft or spacecraft to generate images showing changes that have occurred in the terrain below between repeat passes of the aircraft or spacecraft over the terrain. When fully developed, the CDOP is intended to be capable of generating SAR images and/or SAR differential interferograms in nearly real time. The CDOP is expected to be especially useful for understanding some large-scale natural phenomena and/or mitigating natural hazards: For example, it could be used for near-real-time observation of surface changes caused by floods, landslides, forest fires, volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, glaciers, and sea ice movements. It could also be used to observe such longer-term surface changes as those associated with growth of vegetation (relevant to estimation of wildfire fuel loads). The CDOP is, essentially, an interferometric SAR processor designed to operate aboard a radar platform.

  16. Street-side vehicle detection, classification and change detection using mobile laser scanning data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiao, Wen; Vallet, Bruno; Schindler, Konrad; Paparoditis, Nicolas

    2016-04-01

    Statistics on street-side car parks, e.g. occupancy rates, parked vehicle types, parking durations, are of great importance for urban planning and policy making. Related studies, e.g. vehicle detection and classification, mostly focus on static images or video. Whereas mobile laser scanning (MLS) systems are increasingly utilized for urban street environment perception due to their direct 3D information acquisition, high accuracy and movability. In this paper, we design a complete system for car park monitoring, including vehicle recognition, localization, classification and change detection, from laser scanning point clouds. The experimental data are acquired by an MLS system using high frequency laser scanner which scans the streets vertically along the system's moving trajectory. The point clouds are firstly classified as ground, building façade, and street objects which are then segmented using state-of-the-art methods. Each segment is treated as an object hypothesis, and its geometric features are extracted. Moreover, a deformable vehicle model is fitted to each object. By fitting an explicit model to the vehicle points, detailed information, such as precise position and orientation, can be obtained. The model parameters are also treated as vehicle features. Together with the geometric features, they are applied to a supervised learning procedure for vehicle or non-vehicle recognition. The classes of detected vehicles are also investigated. Whether vehicles have changed across two datasets acquired at different times is detected to estimate the durations. Here, vehicles are trained pair-wisely. Two same or different vehicles are paired up as training samples. As a result, the vehicle recognition, classification and change detection accuracies are 95.9%, 86.0% and 98.7%, respectively. Vehicle modelling improves not only the recognition rate, but also the localization precision compared to bounding boxes.

  17. Correlation based efficient face recognition and color change detection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elbouz, M.; Alfalou, A.; Brosseau, C.; Alam, M. S.; Qasmi, S.

    2013-01-01

    Identifying the human face via correlation is a topic attracting widespread interest. At the heart of this technique lies the comparison of an unknown target image to a known reference database of images. However, the color information in the target image remains notoriously difficult to interpret. In this paper, we report a new technique which: (i) is robust against illumination change, (ii) offers discrimination ability to detect color change between faces having similar shape, and (iii) is specifically designed to detect red colored stains (i.e. facial bleeding). We adopt the Vanderlugt correlator (VLC) architecture with a segmented phase filter and we decompose the color target image using normalized red, green, and blue (RGB), and hue, saturation, and value (HSV) scales. We propose a new strategy to effectively utilize color information in signatures for further increasing the discrimination ability. The proposed algorithm has been found to be very efficient for discriminating face subjects with different skin colors, and those having color stains in different areas of the facial image.

  18. Illumination robust change detection with CMOS imaging sensors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rengarajan, Vijay; Gupta, Sheetal B.; Rajagopalan, A. N.; Seetharaman, Guna

    2015-05-01

    Change detection between two images in the presence of degradations is an important problem in the computer vision community, more so for the aerial scenario which is particularly challenging. Cameras mounted on moving platforms such as aircrafts or drones are subject to general six-dimensional motion as the motion is not restricted to a single plane. With CMOS cameras increasingly in vogue due to their low power consumption, the inevitability of rolling-shutter (RS) effect adds to the challenge. This is caused by sequential exposure of rows in CMOS cameras unlike conventional global shutter cameras where all pixels are exposed simultaneously. The RS effect is particularly pronounced in aerial imaging since each row of the imaging sensor is likely to experience a different motion. For fast-moving platforms, the problem is further compounded since the rows are also affected by motion blur. Moreover, since the two images are shot at different times, illumination differences are common. In this paper, we propose a unified computational framework that elegantly exploits the scarcity constraint to deal with the problem of change detection in images degraded by RS effect, motion blur as well as non-global illumination differences. We formulate an optimization problem where each row of the distorted image is approximated as a weighted sum of the corresponding rows in warped versions of the reference image due to camera motion within the exposure period to account for geometric as well as photometric differences. The method has been validated on both synthetic and real data.

  19. Abrupt Atmospheric Methane Increases Associated With Hudson Strait Heinrich Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rhodes, R.; Brook, E.; Chiang, J. C. H.; Blunier, T.; Maselli, O. J.; McConnell, J. R.; Romanini, D.; Severinghaus, J. P.

    2015-12-01

    The drivers of abrupt climate change during the Last Glacial Period are not well understood. While Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) cycles are thought to be linked to variations in the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Ocean Circulation (AMOC), it is not clear how or if Heinrich Events—extensive influxes of icebergs into the North Atlantic Ocean that impacted global climate and biogeochemistry—are related. An enduring problem is the difficultly in dating iceberg rafted debris deposits that typically lack foraminifera. Here we present an ultra-high resolution record of methane from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide ice core at unprecedented, continuous temporal resolution from 67.2-9.8 ka BP, which we propose constrains the timing of Heinrich events. Our methane record essentially mirrors Greenland ice core stable isotope variability across D-O events, except during Heinrich stadials 1, 2, 4 and 5. Partway through these stadials only, methane increases abruptly and rapidly, as at the onset of a D-O event but Greenland temperature exhibits no equivalent response. Speleothem records exhibit signatures of drought in the Northern extra-tropics and intensified monsoonal activity over South America at these times. We use a simple heuristic model to propose that cold air temperatures and extensive sea ice in the North, resulting from Heinrich events, caused extreme reorganization of tropical hydroclimate. This involved curtailment of the seasonal northerly migration of tropical rain belts, leading to intensification of rainfall over Southern Hemisphere tropical wetlands, thus allowing production of excess methane relative to a 'normal' Greenland stadial. We note that this mechanism can operate if AMOC is already in a slowed state when a Heinrich event occurs, as paleo-evidence suggests it was. Heinrich events and associated sea ice cover would therefore act to prolong the duration of this AMOC state. Our findings place the big four Heinrich events of Hudson Strait origin

  20. Uncertainty in Estimation of Bioenergy Induced Lulc Change: Development of a New Change Detection Technique.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singh, N.; Vatsavai, R. R.; Patlolla, D.; Bhaduri, B. L.; Lim, S. J.

    2015-12-01

    Recent estimates of bioenergy induced land use land cover change (LULCC) have large uncertainty due to misclassification errors in the LULC datasets used for analysis. These uncertainties are further compounded when data is modified by merging classes, aggregating pixels and change in classification methods over time. Hence the LULCC computed using these derived datasets is more a reflection of change in classification methods, change in input data and data manipulation rather than reflecting actual changes ion ground. Furthermore results are constrained by geographic extent, update frequency and resolution of the dataset. To overcome this limitation we have developed a change detection system to identify yearly as well as seasonal changes in LULC patterns. Our method uses hierarchical clustering which works by grouping objects into a hierarchy based on phenological similarity of different vegetation types. The algorithm explicitly models vegetation phenology to reduce spurious changes. We apply our technique on globally available Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) NDVI data at 250-meter resolution. We analyze 10 years of bi-weekly data to predict changes in the mid-western US as a case study. The results of our analysis are presented and its advantages over existing techniques are discussed.

  1. Volumetric Forest Change Detection Through Vhr Satellite Imagery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Akca, Devrim; Stylianidis, Efstratios; Smagas, Konstantinos; Hofer, Martin; Poli, Daniela; Gruen, Armin; Sanchez Martin, Victor; Altan, Orhan; Walli, Andreas; Jimeno, Elisa; Garcia, Alejandro

    2016-06-01

    Quick and economical ways of detecting of planimetric and volumetric changes of forest areas are in high demand. A research platform, called FORSAT (A satellite processing platform for high resolution forest assessment), was developed for the extraction of 3D geometric information from VHR (very-high resolution) imagery from satellite optical sensors and automatic change detection. This 3D forest information solution was developed during a Eurostars project. FORSAT includes two main units. The first one is dedicated to the geometric and radiometric processing of satellite optical imagery and 2D/3D information extraction. This includes: image radiometric pre-processing, image and ground point measurement, improvement of geometric sensor orientation, quasiepipolar image generation for stereo measurements, digital surface model (DSM) extraction by using a precise and robust image matching approach specially designed for VHR satellite imagery, generation of orthoimages, and 3D measurements in single images using mono-plotting and in stereo images as well as triplets. FORSAT supports most of the VHR optically imagery commonly used for civil applications: IKONOS, OrbView - 3, SPOT - 5 HRS, SPOT - 5 HRG, QuickBird, GeoEye-1, WorldView-1/2, Pléiades 1A/1B, SPOT 6/7, and sensors of similar type to be expected in the future. The second unit of FORSAT is dedicated to 3D surface comparison for change detection. It allows users to import digital elevation models (DEMs), align them using an advanced 3D surface matching approach and calculate the 3D differences and volume changes between epochs. To this end our 3D surface matching method LS3D is being used. FORSAT is a single source and flexible forest information solution with a very competitive price/quality ratio, allowing expert and non-expert remote sensing users to monitor forests in three and four dimensions from VHR optical imagery for many forest information needs. The capacity and benefits of FORSAT have been tested in

  2. Early auditory change detection implicitly facilitated by ignored concurrent visual change during a Braille reading task.

    PubMed

    Aoyama, Atsushi; Haruyama, Tomohiro; Kuriki, Shinya

    2013-09-01

    Unconscious monitoring of multimodal stimulus changes enables humans to effectively sense the external environment. Such automatic change detection is thought to be reflected in auditory and visual mismatch negativity (MMN) and mismatch negativity fields (MMFs). These are event-related potentials and magnetic fields, respectively, evoked by deviant stimuli within a sequence of standard stimuli, and both are typically studied during irrelevant visual tasks that cause the stimuli to be ignored. Due to the sensitivity of MMN/MMF to potential effects of explicit attention to vision, however, it is unclear whether multisensory co-occurring changes can purely facilitate early sensory change detection reciprocally across modalities. We adopted a tactile task involving the reading of Braille patterns as a neutral ignore condition, while measuring magnetoencephalographic responses to concurrent audiovisual stimuli that were infrequently deviated either in auditory, visual, or audiovisual dimensions; 1000-Hz standard tones were switched to 1050-Hz deviant tones and/or two-by-two standard check patterns displayed on both sides of visual fields were switched to deviant reversed patterns. The check patterns were set to be faint enough so that the reversals could be easily ignored even during Braille reading. While visual MMFs were virtually undetectable even for visual and audiovisual deviants, significant auditory MMFs were observed for auditory and audiovisual deviants, originating from bilateral supratemporal auditory areas. Notably, auditory MMFs were significantly enhanced for audiovisual deviants from about 100 ms post-stimulus, as compared with the summation responses for auditory and visual deviants or for each of the unisensory deviants recorded in separate sessions. Evidenced by high tactile task performance with unawareness of visual changes, we conclude that Braille reading can successfully suppress explicit attention and that simultaneous multisensory changes can

  3. Detection of Deforestation and Land Conversion in Rondonia, Brazil Using Change Detection Techniques

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Guild, Liane S.; Cohen, Warren B,; Kauffman, J. Boone; Peterson, David L. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Fires associated with tropical deforestation, land conversion, and land use greatly contribute to emissions as well as the depletion of carbon and nutrient pools. The objective of this research was to compare change detection techniques for identifying deforestation and cattle pasture formation during a period of early colonization and agricultural expansion in the vicinity of Jamari, Rond6nia. Multi-date Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) data between 1984 and 1992 was examined in a 94 370-ha area of active deforestation to map land cover change. The Tasseled Cap (TC) transformation was used to enhance the contrast between forest, cleared areas, and regrowth. TC images were stacked into a composite multi-date TC and used in a principal components (PC) transformation to identify change components. In addition, consecutive TC image pairs were differenced and stacked into a composite multi-date differenced image. A maximum likelihood classification of each image composite was compared for identification of land cover change. The multi-date TC composite classification had the best accuracy of 78.1% (kappa). By 1984, only 5% of the study area had been cleared, but by 1992, 11% of the area had been deforested, primarily for pasture and 7% lost due to hydroelectric dam flooding. Finally, discrimination of pasture versus cultivation was improved due to the ability to detect land under sustained clearing opened to land exhibiting regrowth with infrequent clearing.

  4. Modeling abrupt cultural regime shifts during the Palaeolithic and Stone Age.

    PubMed

    Aoki, Kenichi

    2014-12-07

    The coupled dynamics of the size and the mean cultural/technological level of a population, with positive feedback between these two variables, is modeled in the Malthusian-Boserupian framework. Bifurcation diagrams, with innovativeness or the cultureless carrying capacity as the parameter, show that abrupt transitions in the mean cultural level are possible. For example, a gradual evolutionary change toward greater innate innovativeness would produce an associated gradual increase in mean cultural level, until a threshold is crossed that triggers an abrupt cultural regime shift. Hence, the model may help explain the apparently sudden and dramatic efflorescences of Palaeolithic/Stone Age culture during the Late Pleistocene, without having to invoke major contemporaneous genetic changes in cognition. The results of statistical studies on the association between population size and toolkit diversity among ethnographic societies are also discussed.

  5. The relationship between change detection and recognition of centrally attended objects in motion pictures.

    PubMed

    Angelone, Bonnie L; Levin, Daniel T; Simons, Daniel J

    2003-01-01

    Observers typically detect changes to central objects more readily than changes to marginal objects, but they sometimes miss changes to central, attended objects as well. However, even if observers do not report such changes, they may be able to recognize the changed object. In three experiments we explored change detection and recognition memory for several types of changes to central objects in motion pictures. Observers who failed to detect a change still performed at above chance levels on a recognition task in almost all conditions. In addition, observers who detected the change were no more accurate in their recognition than those who did not detect the change. Despite large differences in the detectability of changes across conditions, those observers who missed the change did not vary in their ability to recognize the changing object.

  6. Change Detection Module for New Orleans City of USA Using

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singh, Dharmendra

    accuracy. The New Orleans city of USA is taken as study area because this is reported that this city is shrinking. RADARSAT SLC (Single look complex) images acquired from January 2002 to March 2007 were obtained for the study area. Image pairs with perpendicular baselines less than 100 km are chosen. Selection of suitable image pairs is crucial since baseline distance between them affects the altitude ambiguity in resultant change detection map. Coherence is computed for the image pairs. If the coherence is greater than 0.25, such image pairs are considered for further analysis. Three pass differential InSAR is used for the analysis of change detection. Images 1 and 2 of the study area with lesser temporal span (minimum of 24 day interval) is chosen to make a digital elevation model and then images 1 and 3 of the same area with one year of temporal span is chosen to make an interferogram. The topographic phase estimated with images 1 and 2 is then subtracted to make a differential interferogram showing change from image 2 to 3. Image pairs with approximately one month temporal span, are considered for generating interferogram. Changes occurred in every one year is measured by subtracting topographic phase of the year corresponding to master image, from interferogram. From the change detection map obtained from both methods show that areas of larger changes are identified near Lake Borgne, and in the boundaries of Mississippi river. Lake Borgne is reported to be identified as an area of major land subsidence as found by other studies also. On comparing our result with this interferometric study, it is found that both are showing some common regions with high changes near water bodies. Surface deformation can be monitored quantitatively in the scale of mm with the help of temporal analysis of D-InSAR.

  7. Optimal Regulatory Circuit Topologies for Fold-Change Detection.

    PubMed

    Adler, Miri; Szekely, Pablo; Mayo, Avi; Alon, Uri

    2017-02-22

    Evolution repeatedly converges on only a few regulatory circuit designs that achieve a given function. This simplicity helps us understand biological networks. Howeve