Science.gov

Sample records for abrupt climate events

  1. Abrupt climate change and extinction events

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crowley, Thomas J.

    1988-01-01

    There is a growing body of theoretical and empirical support for the concept of instabilities in the climate system, and indications that abrupt climate change may in some cases contribute to abrupt extinctions. Theoretical indications of instabilities can be found in a broad spectrum of climate models (energy balance models, a thermohaline model of deep-water circulation, atmospheric general circulation models, and coupled ocean-atmosphere models). Abrupt transitions can be of several types and affect the environment in different ways. There is increasing evidence for abrupt climate change in the geologic record and involves both interglacial-glacial scale transitions and the longer-term evolution of climate over the last 100 million years. Records from the Cenozoic clearly show that the long-term trend is characterized by numerous abrupt steps where the system appears to be rapidly moving to a new equilibrium state. The long-term trend probably is due to changes associated with plate tectonic processes, but the abrupt steps most likely reflect instabilities in the climate system as the slowly changing boundary conditions caused the climate to reach some threshold critical point. A more detailed analysis of abrupt steps comes from high-resolution studies of glacial-interglacial fluctuations in the Pleistocene. Comparison of climate transitions with the extinction record indicates that many climate and biotic transitions coincide. The Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction is not a candidate for an extinction event due to instabilities in the climate system. It is quite possible that more detailed comparisons and analysis will indicate some flaws in the climate instability-extinction hypothesis, but at present it appears to be a viable candidate as an alternate mechanism for causing abrupt environmental changes and extinctions.

  2. Gradual onset and recovery of the Younger Dryas abrupt climate event in the tropics

    PubMed Central

    Partin, J.W.; Quinn, T.M.; Shen, C.-C.; Okumura, Y.; Cardenas, M.B.; Siringan, F.P.; Banner, J.L.; Lin, K.; Hu, H.-M.; Taylor, F.W.

    2015-01-01

    Proxy records of temperature from the Atlantic clearly show that the Younger Dryas was an abrupt climate change event during the last deglaciation, but records of hydroclimate are underutilized in defining the event. Here we combine a new hydroclimate record from Palawan, Philippines, in the tropical Pacific, with previously published records to highlight a difference between hydroclimate and temperature responses to the Younger Dryas. Although the onset and termination are synchronous across the records, tropical hydroclimate changes are more gradual (>100 years) than the abrupt (10–100 years) temperature changes in the northern Atlantic Ocean. The abrupt recovery of Greenland temperatures likely reflects changes in regional sea ice extent. Proxy data and transient climate model simulations support the hypothesis that freshwater forced a reduction in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, thereby causing the Younger Dryas. However, changes in ocean overturning may not produce the same effects globally as in Greenland. PMID:26329911

  3. Gradual onset and recovery of the Younger Dryas abrupt climate event in the tropics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Partin, J. W.; Quinn, T. M.; Shen, C.-C.; Okumura, Y.; Cardenas, M. B.; Siringan, F. P.; Banner, J. L.; Lin, K.; Hu, H.-M.; Taylor, F. W.

    2015-09-01

    Proxy records of temperature from the Atlantic clearly show that the Younger Dryas was an abrupt climate change event during the last deglaciation, but records of hydroclimate are underutilized in defining the event. Here we combine a new hydroclimate record from Palawan, Philippines, in the tropical Pacific, with previously published records to highlight a difference between hydroclimate and temperature responses to the Younger Dryas. Although the onset and termination are synchronous across the records, tropical hydroclimate changes are more gradual (>100 years) than the abrupt (10-100 years) temperature changes in the northern Atlantic Ocean. The abrupt recovery of Greenland temperatures likely reflects changes in regional sea ice extent. Proxy data and transient climate model simulations support the hypothesis that freshwater forced a reduction in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, thereby causing the Younger Dryas. However, changes in ocean overturning may not produce the same effects globally as in Greenland.

  4. Gradual onset and recovery of the Younger Dryas abrupt climate event in the tropics.

    PubMed

    Partin, J W; Quinn, T M; Shen, C-C; Okumura, Y; Cardenas, M B; Siringan, F P; Banner, J L; Lin, K; Hu, H-M; Taylor, F W

    2015-01-01

    Proxy records of temperature from the Atlantic clearly show that the Younger Dryas was an abrupt climate change event during the last deglaciation, but records of hydroclimate are underutilized in defining the event. Here we combine a new hydroclimate record from Palawan, Philippines, in the tropical Pacific, with previously published records to highlight a difference between hydroclimate and temperature responses to the Younger Dryas. Although the onset and termination are synchronous across the records, tropical hydroclimate changes are more gradual (>100 years) than the abrupt (10-100 years) temperature changes in the northern Atlantic Ocean. The abrupt recovery of Greenland temperatures likely reflects changes in regional sea ice extent. Proxy data and transient climate model simulations support the hypothesis that freshwater forced a reduction in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, thereby causing the Younger Dryas. However, changes in ocean overturning may not produce the same effects globally as in Greenland. PMID:26329911

  5. Consistent simulations of multiple proxy responses to an abrupt climate change event.

    PubMed

    LeGrande, A N; Schmidt, G A; Shindell, D T; Field, C V; Miller, R L; Koch, D M; Faluvegi, G; Hoffmann, G

    2006-01-24

    Isotope, aerosol, and methane records document an abrupt cooling event across the Northern Hemisphere at 8.2 kiloyears before present (kyr), while separate geologic lines of evidence document the catastrophic drainage of the glacial Lakes Agassiz and Ojibway into the Hudson Bay at approximately the same time. This melt water pulse may have been the catalyst for a decrease in North Atlantic Deep Water formation and subsequent cooling around the Northern Hemisphere. However, lack of direct evidence for ocean cooling has lead to speculation that this abrupt event was purely local to Greenland and called into question this proposed mechanism. We simulate the response to this melt water pulse using a coupled general circulation model that explicitly tracks water isotopes and with atmosphere-only experiments that calculate changes in atmospheric aerosol deposition (specifically (10)Be and dust) and wetland methane emissions. The simulations produce a short period of significantly diminished North Atlantic Deep Water and are able to quantitatively match paleoclimate observations, including the lack of isotopic signal in the North Atlantic. This direct comparison with multiple proxy records provides compelling evidence that changes in ocean circulation played a major role in this abrupt climate change event. PMID:16415159

  6. An abrupt climate event in a coupled ocean-atmosphere simulation without external forcing.

    PubMed

    Hall, A; Stouffer, R J

    2001-01-11

    Temperature reconstructions from the North Atlantic region indicate frequent abrupt and severe climate fluctuations during the last glacial and Holocene periods. The driving forces for these events are unclear and coupled atmosphere-ocean models of global circulation have only simulated such events by inserting large amounts of fresh water into the northern North Atlantic Ocean. Here we report a drastic cooling event in a 15,000-yr simulation of global circulation with present-day climate conditions without the use of such external forcing. In our simulation, the annual average surface temperature near southern Greenland spontaneously fell 6-10 standard deviations below its mean value for a period of 30-40 yr. The event was triggered by a persistent northwesterly wind that transported large amounts of buoyant cold and fresh water into the northern North Atlantic Ocean. Oceanic convection shut down in response to this flow, concentrating the entire cooling of the northern North Atlantic by the colder atmosphere in the uppermost ocean layer. Given the similarity between our simulation and observed records of rapid cooling events, our results indicate that internal atmospheric variability alone could have generated the extreme climate disruptions in this region. PMID:11196636

  7. Abrupt post-glacial climate events in West Asia and North Africa monsoon domains

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gasse, Françoise; Van Campo, Elise

    1994-09-01

    Regions beyond the present or past penetration of the Indian and African monsoons have experienced several large and abrupt climatic fluctuations over the past 13 14C kyr. Pollen and lake records from West Asia (Western Tibet and Rajasthan), East Africa (Ethiopia) and West Africa (Western Sahara, Sahel and subequatorial Africa) were selected on the basis of chronological control, sensitivity of both site and environmental indicators to climate change, the continuity of the record, and interdisciplinary control of the palaeoclimatic interpretation. Conditions wetter than those of today prevailed during the early-mid-Holocene period, but major dry spells are recorded at all sites during the intervals ˜ 11.0-9.5 kyr BP, ˜ 8-7 kyr BP and 3-4 kyr BP. Several records also suggest dry events of minor amplitude around 6 kyr BP. Potential boundary forcings of insolation and sea surface and tropical land surface conditions are discussed. The solar radiation accounts for the general envelop of the post-glacial monsoon fluctuations, but explains neither the timing nor the amplitude of the short-term changes. In spite of apparent covariation between fluctuations in sea surface conditions in the North Atlantic and the monsoon record, no direct mechanism could be found relating the intensity of the oceanic thermohaline conveyor belt to the monsoon strength. Changes in tropical land surface conditions (soil moisture negative feedback, and changes in CH 4 production from wetlands) provide a more satisfactory hypothesis for explaining abrupt reversal events.

  8. Agriculture, Settlement, and Abrupt Climate Change: The 4.2ka BP event in Northern Mesopotamia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ristvet, L.

    2003-12-01

    An abrupt aridification event at 4200 BP has been recorded in 41 paleoclimate proxies in the Old World, from Kilmanjaro, Tanzania to Rajasthan, India, East Asia and the Pacific. This event is particularly well defined for Western Asia, where it has been associated with the abandonment of settlements across the Fertile Crescent and the collapse of states on the Levantine coast and in the dry-farming plains of Northern Mesopotamia, including the Akkadian Empire. Adaptations to climate change are constrained by both local environmental and social factors. Agriculturalists, especially those living in pre-industrial societies, are particularly susceptible to changes in precipitation. The Tell Leilan Regional Survey, which systematically studied sites in a 1650km2 area of Northeastern Syria, records one set of adaptations to this event in an area where dry-farming provided the subsistence base. The survey transect crosses ecotones, from the present 500mm isohyet in the North to the 250mm isohyet in the South, and contains diverse wadi systems, ground water resources, soil profiles, and an ancient marsh/lake-- all of which allow this region to be taken as a microcosm of Northern Mesopotamia. In order to contextualize our study of human response to abrupt climate change, it is necessary to consider how the economic and social systems that were previously in place were transformed by this event. This study attempts to quantify climate change and model its effects on agricultural, pastoral, and settlement systems in Northeastern Syria from 2400-1700 BC. From 2400-2300 BC, optimal climate conditions coincided with the consolidation of an indigenous state. The next century witnessed the Akkadian conquest and imperialization of the Habur plains, which resulted in both the intensification and extensification of agro-production. During the next 300 years, (2200-1900 BC), rainfall plummeted to 70% of the climatic optimum, triggering the abandonment of cities along with their

  9. Heinrich-like events in the Southeast Pacific: Abrupt climate change during the last interglacial

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jacobel, A. W.; Mokeddem, Z.; McManus, J. F.

    2010-12-01

    well as hydrographic variations near the Chilean margin, occurred in concert with abrupt changes in the Northern Hemisphere. While previous studies have found widespread global responses related to North Atlantic Heinrich events, this is the first record to show direct evidence of analogous climate changes in the Southeast Pacific. The existence of these events, in phase with those in the North Atlantic, provides constraints on the mechanisms forcing abrupt climate changes.

  10. Abrupt Climatic Events Observed in Organic-Rich Sediments From Lake Tanganyika, Tropical East Africa, Over the Past 50 kyr

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burnett, A. P.; Weyhenmeyer, C. E.; Scholz, C. A.; Swart, P. K.

    2006-12-01

    Abrupt climate changes such as Dansgaard-Oeschger Cycles and Heinrich Events were first detected in high- latitude records, but an increasing number of studies suggest that these rapid changes are actually global events. The degree to which the tropics drive, control and/or respond to such rapid changes is still poorly understood due to a scarcity of data from low-latitude regions. A recently acquired sediment core from Lake Tanganyika, East Africa, provides a unique archive to study abrupt climate events in the tropics throughout the last glaciation. The core provides a continuous, undisturbed and high resolution climate record over the past 100 kyr. An age-depth model based on 25 new radiocarbon dates provides a solid, high-resolution chronology for the past 50 kyr. Throughout this time, several rapid changes in paleoclimate proxy data are observed along the core. Sedimentation rates remained fairly constant from the Holocene until the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) but increased abruptly from ~80 mm/1000 yr to ~150 mm/1000 yr around 18 kyr BP. At the same time, the sediment record reveals a sudden increase in total organic carbon (TOC) from 4% to 12% indicating a rapid increase in organic matter contributions at the end of the LGM. Abrupt changes in TOC and δ13C values are also found at ~38 kyr, ~30 kyr and ~16 kyr BP, suggesting a possible link to Heinrich events 4, 3 and 1, respectively. Forthcoming very high-resolution analyses, to augment existing low-resolution data, include δ13C, δ15N, C/N ratios and TOC values. Furthermore, TEX86 measurements will be carried out to determine whether the observed changes in organic matter contributions are associated with changes in water temperatures. In combination with the solid 14C chronology, the new data will allow us to precisely determine the onset, timing and nature of abrupt changes and evaluate them in the global context.

  11. Evidence of Abrupt Climatic Variability Across Heinrich Events from Multiple Bahamian Stalagmites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arienzo, M. M.; Swart, P. K.; Pourmand, A.; Broad, K.; Clement, A. C.; Murphy, L.; Kakuk, B.

    2013-12-01

    Various types of paleoclimate data support the global nature and scale of Heinrich events. While a comprehensive picture of climate across Heinrich events is emerging for the North Atlantic, very few studies have been conducted in the subtropical western Atlantic, which may be an important area for investigating the global propagation of these events. In this study, we have attempted to further understand sub-tropical climate using geochemical records from multiple speleothems from a flooded cave in the Bahamas. These Bahamian stalagmites demonstrate increased aridity and temperature decrease associated with Heinrich events. Speleothems collected at depths ranging from 10-40 meters below modern sea level were dated using U-Th geochronometry with MC-ICP-MS at the Neptune Isotope Laboratory of University of Miami. Stable carbon and oxygen isotopes were measured at a resolution of 1 mm. In the subtropics, it has been demonstrated that higher volume rainfall events generally lead to a depleted δ18O signal, whereas heavier δ18O values are attributed to lower amounts of rainfall. Interpreting the δ18O of a carbonate is inherently difficult because the δ18O of a carbonate is dependent on both the variations in temperature and the δ18O of the cave water. In order to solve for the second unknown, an additional proxy is needed to provide information on one of the two unknowns. Fluid inclusion isotopic analysis provides information on the isotopic ratio of the formation water that can therefore be used to calculate paleo-temperature. Preliminary U-Th age results from multiple speleothems from Dan's Cave, Abaco Island, Bahamas demonstrate the stalagmite samples were forming from ~13 to 65 ka. The carbonate δ18O and δ13C results reveal significant isotopic excursions associated with Heinrich events. More positive carbon and oxygen isotopic values are observed leading into the Heinrich events, followed by more negative values at the terminations. In contrast to increased

  12. Implications of abrupt climate change.

    PubMed Central

    Alley, Richard B.

    2004-01-01

    Records of past climates contained in ice cores, ocean sediments, and other archives show that large, abrupt, widespread climate changes have occurred repeatedly in the past. These changes were especially prominent during the cooling into and warming out of the last ice age, but persisted into the modern warm interval. Changes have especially affected water availability in warm regions and temperature in cold regions, but have affected almost all climatic variables across much or all of the Earth. Impacts of climate changes are smaller if the changes are slower or more-expected. The rapidity of abrupt climate changes, together with the difficulty of predicting such changes, means that impacts on the health of humans, economies and ecosystems will be larger if abrupt climate changes occur. Most projections of future climate include only gradual changes, whereas paleoclimatic data plus models indicate that abrupt changes remain possible; thus, policy is being made based on a view of the future that may be optimistic. PMID:17060975

  13. Abrupt climate change: can society cope?

    PubMed

    Hulme, Mike

    2003-09-15

    Consideration of abrupt climate change has generally been incorporated neither in analyses of climate-change impacts nor in the design of climate adaptation strategies. Yet the possibility of abrupt climate change triggered by human perturbation of the climate system is used to support the position of both those who urge stronger and earlier mitigative action than is currently being contemplated and those who argue that the unknowns in the Earth system are too large to justify such early action. This paper explores the question of abrupt climate change in terms of its potential implications for society, focusing on the UK and northwest Europe in particular. The nature of abrupt climate change and the different ways in which it has been defined and perceived are examined. Using the example of the collapse of the thermohaline circulation (THC), the suggested implications for society of abrupt climate change are reviewed; previous work has been largely speculative and has generally considered the implications only from economic and ecological perspectives. Some observations about the implications from a more social and behavioural science perspective are made. If abrupt climate change simply implies changes in the occurrence or intensity of extreme weather events, or an accelerated unidirectional change in climate, the design of adaptation to climate change can proceed within the existing paradigm, with appropriate adjustments. Limits to adaptation in some sectors or regions may be reached, and the costs of appropriate adaptive behaviour may be large, but strategy can develop on the basis of a predicted long-term unidirectional change in climate. It would be more challenging, however, if abrupt climate change implied a directional change in climate, as, for example, may well occur in northwest Europe following a collapse of the THC. There are two fundamental problems for society associated with such an outcome: first, the future changes in climate currently being

  14. An Abrupt Centennial-Scale Drought Event and Mid-Holocene Climate Change Patterns in Monsoon Marginal Zones of East Asia

    PubMed Central

    Li, Yu; Wang, Nai'ang; Zhang, Chengqi

    2014-01-01

    The mid-latitudes of East Asia are characterized by the interaction between the Asian summer monsoon and the westerly winds. Understanding long-term climate change in the marginal regions of the Asian monsoon is critical for understanding the millennial-scale interactions between the Asian monsoon and the westerly winds. Abrupt climate events are always associated with changes in large-scale circulation patterns; therefore, investigations into abrupt climate changes provide clues for responses of circulation patterns to extreme climate events. In this paper, we examined the time scale and mid-Holocene climatic background of an abrupt dry mid-Holocene event in the Shiyang River drainage basin in the northwest margin of the Asian monsoon. Mid-Holocene lacustrine records were collected from the middle reaches and the terminal lake of the basin. Using radiocarbon and OSL ages, a centennial-scale drought event, which is characterized by a sand layer in lacustrine sediments both from the middle and lower reaches of the basin, was absolutely dated between 8.0–7.0 cal kyr BP. Grain size data suggest an abrupt decline in lake level and a dry environment in the middle reaches of the basin during the dry interval. Previous studies have shown mid-Holocene drought events in other places of monsoon marginal zones; however, their chronologies are not strong enough to study the mechanism. According to the absolutely dated records, we proposed a new hypothesis that the mid-Holocene dry interval can be related to the weakening Asian summer monsoon and the relatively arid environment in arid Central Asia. Furthermore, abrupt dry climatic events are directly linked to the basin-wide effective moisture change in semi-arid and arid regions. Effective moisture is affected by basin-wide precipitation, evapotranspiration, lake surface evaporation and other geographical settings. As a result, the time scales of the dry interval could vary according to locations due to different

  15. Examining Risks, Extreme Events, and Abrupt Changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hargreaves, Julia; Keller, Klaus; Edwards, Tamsin

    2013-08-01

    Climate change research in Japan has shifted focus significantly in the past 2 years, with a greater emphasis on risks, extreme events, and abrupt changes. Two new national government-funded 5-year projects, Integrated Climate Assessment—Risks, Uncertainty and Society (ICA-RUS) and Program for Risk Information on Climate Change (SOUSEI) will focus on climate-induced risks and hazards and the possibility of fast climate changes. In light of the devastating Tohoku earthquake, tsunami, and consequent nuclear accident that occurred 2 years ago in Japan, there is also an increased interest in looking again at risks previously thought to be highly unlikely and in searching for potential risks that have not been considered.

  16. Abrupt climatic events during OIS-3 recorded in terrestrial sediments in the Netherlands: a multi-proxy approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bos, J. A. A.; Bohncke, S. J. P.; Kasse, C.; van Huissteden, J.; Schokker, J.; Bunnik, F. P. M.; Wallinga, J.

    2009-04-01

    Abrupt climatic changes during Oxygen Isotope Stage 3 (OIS-3 or Weichselian Middle Pleniglacial) are revealed in the oxygen isotope records of the Greenland ice cores and in the North Atlantic marine cores. In the Greenland ice cores, these so-called D/O cycles start with a rapid warming of 5-10˚C within a few decades, followed by a phase of gradual cooling over several hundred to more than a thousand years and often end with a final reduction in temperature back to cold, stadial conditions. On the adjacent European continent, however, climatic variability during this time interval is poorly known. High-resolution terrestrial records are scarce and the discontinuous nature of sedimentation and repeated erosion on the continent combined with poor dating control often hampers a detailed study of the vegetation and climate. In this contribution, a Middle Weichselian sequence with shallow lacustrine deposits, intercalated by fluvial sediments with permafrost features, is presented from the Netherlands. Within this Middle Weichselian sequence, rapid warming events are assumed to have given rise to thawlake formation and/or deposition of organic-rich lacustrine sediments, while the extreme cooling events of the D/O cycles are probably represented in the sequences by clastic intervals during which periglacial features developed. In the sixties of the last century, two warming events or "interstadials" were first recognized and described from terrestrial Middle Weichselian sequences from the Hengelo basin in the Netherlands, the Hengelo- and Denekamp interstadials, respectively. The shift from a polar desert to shrub tundra (i.e. Hengelo interstadial) and tundra to shrub tundra (i.e. Denekamp interstadial), visible in the pollen diagrams of this area, was interpreted as a temporary amelioration of the climate and were therefore given the names of interstadials. In time the Hengelo- and Denekamp interstadials were also correlated with D/O cycles 12 respectively 8 in the

  17. Abrupt climate change: Past, present and the search for precursors as an aid to predicting events in the future (Hans Oeschger Medal Lecture)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mayewski, Paul Andrew

    2016-04-01

    The demonstration using Greenland ice cores that abrupt shifts in climate, Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events, existed during the last glacial period has had a transformational impact on our understanding of climate change in the naturally forced world. The demonstration that D-O events are globally distributed and that they operated during previous glacial periods has led to extensive research into the relative hemispheric timing and causes of these events. The emergence of civilization during our current interglacial, the Holocene, has been attributed to the "relative climate quiescence" of this period relative to the massive, abrupt shifts in climate that characterized glacial periods in the form of D-O events. But, everything is relative and climate change is no exception. The demise of past civilizations, (eg., Mesopatamian, Mayan and Norse) is integrally tied to abrupt climate change (ACC) events operating at regional scales. Regionally to globally distributed ACC events have punctuated the Holocene and extreme events have always posed significant challenges to humans and ecosystems. Current warming of the Arctic, in terms of length of the summer season, is as abrupt and massive, albeit not as extensive, as the transition from the last major D-O event, the Younger Dryas into the Holocene (Mayewski et al., 2013). Tropospheric source greenhouse gas rise and ozone depletion in the stratosphere over Antarctica are triggers for the modern advent of human emission instigated ACCs. Arctic warming and Antarctic ozone depletion have resulted in significance changes to the atmospheric circulation systems that transport heat, moisture, and pollutants in both hemispheres. Climate models offer a critical tool for assessing trends, but they cannot as yet predict ACC events, as evidenced by the inability of these models to predict the rapid onset of Arctic warming and resulting changes in atmospheric circulation; and in the model vs past analog differences in projections for

  18. Work More? The 8.2 kaBP Abrupt Climate Change Event and the Origins of Irrigation Agriculture and Surplus Agro-Production in Mesopotamia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weiss, H.

    2003-12-01

    The West Asian archaeological record is of sufficient transparency and resolution to permit observation of the social responses to the major Holocene abrupt climate change events at 8.2, 5.2 and 4.2 kaBP. The 8.2kaBP abrupt climate change event in West Asia was a three hundred year aridification and cooling episode. During this period rain-fed agriculture, established for over a millennium in northern Mesopotamia, suddenly collapsed. Irrigation agriculture, pastoral nomadism, or migration were the only subsistence alternatives for populations previously supported by cereal dry-farming. Irrigation agriculture was not, however, possible along the northern alluvial plains of the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers, where incised riverbeds were several meters below plain level. Exploitable plain-level levees were only accessible in southern-most alluvial plain, at the head of the present-day Persian Gulf. The archaeological data from this region documents the first irrigation agriculture settlement of the plain during the 8.2 kaBP event. Irrigation agriculture provides about twice the yield of dry-farming in Mesopotamia, but at considerable labor costs relative to dry-farming. With irrigation agriculture surplus production was now available for deployment. But why work more? The 8.2 kaBP event provided the natural force for Mesopotamian irrigation agriculture and surplus production that were essential for the earliest class-formation and urban life.

  19. Sea-ice switches and abrupt climate change.

    PubMed

    Gildor, Hezi; Tziperman, Eli

    2003-09-15

    We propose that past abrupt climate changes were probably a result of rapid and extensive variations in sea-ice cover. We explain why this seems a perhaps more likely explanation than a purely thermohaline circulation mechanism. We emphasize that because of the significant influence of sea ice on the climate system, it seems that high priority should be given to developing ways for reconstructing high-resolution (in space and time) sea-ice extent for past climate-change events. If proxy data can confirm that sea ice was indeed the major player in past abrupt climate-change events, it seems less likely that such dramatic abrupt changes will occur due to global warming, when extensive sea-ice cover will not be present. PMID:14558902

  20. The Science of Abrupt Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Overpeck, J. T.

    2002-12-01

    The issue of abrupt climate change has been highlighted by a recent National Academy of Sciences (NRC) study as one of the most troubling potential aspects of future global climate change. The science of abrupt climate change originated in the discovery and study of huge climatic shifts during the last glacial period, particularly in and around the North Atlantic. We now know that ocean thermohaline circulation and circum-North Atlantic climate can change in hard-to-anticipate non-linear ways, and that this type of threat is still very real for the future. At the same time, attention is increasingly being focused on other, equally serious, types of potential "warm climate" abrupt climate change. Worldwide, there is abundant paleoenvironmental evidence for decades-long "megadroughts" that, for example, seemingly occurred on average once or twice a millennium in North America. Dramatic shifts in El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability have also occurred in the past, and could be linked to the occurrence of past megadroughts. Evidence also exists that supports the assertion that the frequency of major floods, and/or landfalls by the largest tropical storms, can change significantly and abruptly. However, as with abrupt shifts in ENSO or drought frequency/duration, we still have only an imperfect observational record, and worse, little proven basis for prediction. This is one reason why abrupt change poses a significant threat to technologically-advanced, as well as developing countries. Major abrupt sea level rise is also a major threat, but again, the paleoclimate record indicates that our understanding of processes related to ice cap melting are not as good as we would like. Given that abrupt climatic changes could occur even in the absence of significant anthropogenic climate change, society should act soon to reduce vulnerabilities. However, the most troubling aspect of the issue is that global warming will likely act to increase the probability of

  1. Abrupt climate events 500,000 to 340,000 years ago: Evidence from subpolar North Atlantic sediments

    SciTech Connect

    Oppo, D.W.; McManus, J.F.; Cullen, J.L.

    1998-02-27

    Subpolar North Atlantic proxy records document millennial-scale climate variations 500,000 to 340,000 years ago. The cycles have an approximately constant pacing that is similar to that documented for the last glacial cycle. These findings suggest that such climate variations are inherent to the late Pleistocene, regardless of glacial state. Sea surface temperature during the warm peak of Marine Isotope Stage 11 (MIS 11) varied by 0.5{degree} to 1{degree}C, less than the 4{degree} to 4.5{degree}C estimated during times of ice growth and the 3{degree}C estimated for glacial maxima. Coherent deep ocean circulation changes were associated with glacial oscillations in sea surface temperature. 31 refs., 3 figs.

  2. A stratigraphic framework for abrupt climatic changes during the Last Glacial period based on three synchronized Greenland ice-core records: refining and extending the INTIMATE event stratigraphy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rasmussen, Sune O.; Bigler, Matthias; Blockley, Simon P.; Blunier, Thomas; Buchardt, Susanne L.; Clausen, Henrik B.; Cvijanovic, Ivana; Dahl-Jensen, Dorthe; Johnsen, Sigfus J.; Fischer, Hubertus; Gkinis, Vasileios; Guillevic, Myriam; Hoek, Wim Z.; Lowe, J. John; Pedro, Joel B.; Popp, Trevor; Seierstad, Inger K.; Steffensen, Jørgen Peder; Svensson, Anders M.; Vallelonga, Paul; Vinther, Bo M.; Walker, Mike J. C.; Wheatley, Joe J.; Winstrup, Mai

    2014-12-01

    Due to their outstanding resolution and well-constrained chronologies, Greenland ice-core records provide a master record of past climatic changes throughout the Last Interglacial-Glacial cycle in the North Atlantic region. As part of the INTIMATE (INTegration of Ice-core, MArine and TErrestrial records) project, protocols have been proposed to ensure consistent and robust correlation between different records of past climate. A key element of these protocols has been the formal definition and ordinal numbering of the sequence of Greenland Stadials (GS) and Greenland Interstadials (GI) within the most recent glacial period. The GS and GI periods are the Greenland expressions of the characteristic Dansgaard-Oeschger events that represent cold and warm phases of the North Atlantic region, respectively. We present here a more detailed and extended GS/GI template for the whole of the Last Glacial period. It is based on a synchronization of the NGRIP, GRIP, and GISP2 ice-core records that allows the parallel analysis of all three records on a common time scale. The boundaries of the GS and GI periods are defined based on a combination of stable-oxygen isotope ratios of the ice (δ18O, reflecting mainly local temperature) and calcium ion concentrations (reflecting mainly atmospheric dust loading) measured in the ice. The data not only resolve the well-known sequence of Dansgaard-Oeschger events that were first defined and numbered in the ice-core records more than two decades ago, but also better resolve a number of short-lived climatic oscillations, some defined here for the first time. Using this revised scheme, we propose a consistent approach for discriminating and naming all the significant abrupt climatic events of the Last Glacial period that are represented in the Greenland ice records. The final product constitutes an extended and better resolved Greenland stratotype sequence, against which other proxy records can be compared and correlated. It also provides a

  3. Approaching the Edge of Abrupt Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramadhin, C.; Yi, C.

    2015-12-01

    The phenomenon of Abrupt Climate Change (ACC) became evident as paleoclimate data analyses began revealing that Earth's climate has the ability to rapidly switch from one state to the next in just a few decades after thresholds are crossed. Previously paleo-climatologists thought these switches were gradual but now there is growing concern to identify thresholds and the dominant feedback mechanisms that propel systems toward thresholds. Current human civilization relies heavily on climate stability and ACC threatens immense disruption with potentially disastrous consequences for all ecosystems. Therefore, prediction of the climate system's approach to threshold values would prove vital for the resilience of civilization through development of appropriate adaptation strategies when that shift occurs. Numerous studies now establish that earth systems are experiencing dramatic changes both by system interactions and anthropogenic sources adding urgency for comprehensive knowledge of tipping point identification. Despite this, predictions are difficult due to the immensity of interactions among feedback mechanisms. In this paper, we attempt to narrow this broad spectrum of critical feedback mechanisms by reviewing several publications on role of feedbacks in initiating past climate transitions establishing the most critical ones and significance in current climate changes. Using a compilation of paleoclimate datasets we compared the rates of deglaciations with that of glacial inceptions, which are approximately 5-10 times slower. We hypothesize that the critical feedbacks are unique to each type of transition such that warmings are dominated by the ice-albedo feedback while coolings are a combination of temperature - CO2 and temperature-precipitation followed by the ice-albedo feedbacks. Additionally, we propose the existence of a commonality in the dominant trigger feedbacks for astronomical and millennial timescale abrupt climate shifts and as such future studies

  4. Abrupt climate-independent fire regime changes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pausas, Juli G.; Keeley, Jon E.

    2014-01-01

    Wildfires have played a determining role in distribution, composition and structure of many ecosystems worldwide and climatic changes are widely considered to be a major driver of future fire regime changes. However, forecasting future climatic change induced impacts on fire regimes will require a clearer understanding of other drivers of abrupt fire regime changes. Here, we focus on evidence from different environmental and temporal settings of fire regimes changes that are not directly attributed to climatic changes. We review key cases of these abrupt fire regime changes at different spatial and temporal scales, including those directly driven (i) by fauna, (ii) by invasive plant species, and (iii) by socio-economic and policy changes. All these drivers might generate non-linear effects of landscape changes in fuel structure; that is, they generate fuel changes that can cross thresholds of landscape continuity, and thus drastically change fire activity. Although climatic changes might contribute to some of these changes, there are also many instances that are not primarily linked to climatic shifts. Understanding the mechanism driving fire regime changes should contribute to our ability to better assess future fire regimes.

  5. Detecting abrupt climate changes on different time scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matyasovszky, István

    2011-10-01

    Two concepts are introduced for detecting abrupt climate changes. In the first case, the sampling frequency of climate data is high as compared to the frequency of climate events examined. The method is based on a separation of trend and noise in the data and is applicable to any dataset that satisfies some mild smoothness and statistical dependence conditions for the trend and the noise, respectively. We say that an abrupt change occurs when the first derivative of the trend function has a discontinuity and the task is to identify such points. The technique is applied to Northern Hemisphere temperature data from 1850 to 2009, Northern Hemisphere temperature data from proxy data, a.d. 200-1995 and Holocene δ18O values going back to 11,700 years BP. Several abrupt changes are detected that are, among other things, beneficial for determining the Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age and Holocene Climate Optimum. In the second case, the sampling frequency is low relative to the frequency of climate events studied. A typical example includes Dansgaard-Oeschger events. The methodology used here is based on a refinement of autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic models. The key element of this approach is the volatility that characterises the time-varying variance, and abrupt changes are defined by high volatilities. The technique applied to δ18O values going back to 122,950 years BP is suitable for identifying DO events. These two approaches for the two cases are closely related despite the fact that at first glance, they seem quite different.

  6. Abrupt climate change and collapse of deep-sea ecosystems

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Yasuhara, Moriaki; Cronin, T. M.; Demenocal, P.B.; Okahashi, H.; Linsley, B.K.

    2008-01-01

    We investigated the deep-sea fossil record of benthic ostracodes during periods of rapid climate and oceanographic change over the past 20,000 years in a core from intermediate depth in the northwestern Atlantic. Results show that deep-sea benthic community "collapses" occur with faunal turnover of up to 50% during major climatically driven oceanographic changes. Species diversity as measured by the Shannon-Wiener index falls from 3 to as low as 1.6 during these events. Major disruptions in the benthic communities commenced with Heinrich Event 1, the Inter-Aller??d Cold Period (IACP: 13.1 ka), the Younger Dryas (YD: 12.9-11.5 ka), and several Holocene Bond events when changes in deep-water circulation occurred. The largest collapse is associated with the YD/IACP and is characterized by an abrupt two-step decrease in both the upper North Atlantic Deep Water assemblage and species diversity at 13.1 ka and at 12.2 ka. The ostracode fauna at this site did not fully recover until ???8 ka, with the establishment of Labrador Sea Water ventilation. Ecologically opportunistic slope species prospered during this community collapse. Other abrupt community collapses during the past 20 ka generally correspond to millennial climate events. These results indicate that deep-sea ecosystems are not immune to the effects of rapid climate changes occurring over centuries or less. ?? 2008 by The National Academy of Sciences of the USA.

  7. Response of seafloor ecosystems to abrupt global climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moffitt, Sarah E.; Hill, Tessa M.; Roopnarine, Peter D.; Kennett, James P.

    2015-04-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to decrease oceanic oxygen (O2) concentrations, with potentially significant effects on marine ecosystems. Geologically recent episodes of abrupt climatic warming provide opportunities to assess the effects of changing oxygenation on marine communities. Thus far, this knowledge has been largely restricted to investigations using Foraminifera, with little being known about ecosystem-scale responses to abrupt, climate-forced deoxygenation. We here present high-resolution records based on the first comprehensive quantitative analysis, to our knowledge, of changes in marine metazoans (Mollusca, Echinodermata, Arthropoda, and Annelida; >5,400 fossils and trace fossils) in response to the global warming associated with the last glacial to interglacial episode. The molluscan archive is dominated by extremophile taxa, including those containing endosymbiotic sulfur-oxidizing bacteria (Lucinoma aequizonatum) and those that graze on filamentous sulfur-oxidizing benthic bacterial mats (Alia permodesta). This record, from 16,100 to 3,400 y ago, demonstrates that seafloor invertebrate communities are subject to major turnover in response to relatively minor inferred changes in oxygenation (>1.5 to <0.5 mLṡL-1 [O2]) associated with abrupt (<100 y) warming of the eastern Pacific. The biotic turnover and recovery events within the record expand known rates of marine biological recovery by an order of magnitude, from <100 to >1,000 y, and illustrate the crucial role of climate and oceanographic change in driving long-term successional changes in ocean ecosystems.

  8. Response of seafloor ecosystems to abrupt global climate change

    PubMed Central

    Moffitt, Sarah E.; Hill, Tessa M.; Roopnarine, Peter D.; Kennett, James P.

    2015-01-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to decrease oceanic oxygen (O2) concentrations, with potentially significant effects on marine ecosystems. Geologically recent episodes of abrupt climatic warming provide opportunities to assess the effects of changing oxygenation on marine communities. Thus far, this knowledge has been largely restricted to investigations using Foraminifera, with little being known about ecosystem-scale responses to abrupt, climate-forced deoxygenation. We here present high-resolution records based on the first comprehensive quantitative analysis, to our knowledge, of changes in marine metazoans (Mollusca, Echinodermata, Arthropoda, and Annelida; >5,400 fossils and trace fossils) in response to the global warming associated with the last glacial to interglacial episode. The molluscan archive is dominated by extremophile taxa, including those containing endosymbiotic sulfur-oxidizing bacteria (Lucinoma aequizonatum) and those that graze on filamentous sulfur-oxidizing benthic bacterial mats (Alia permodesta). This record, from 16,100 to 3,400 y ago, demonstrates that seafloor invertebrate communities are subject to major turnover in response to relatively minor inferred changes in oxygenation (>1.5 to <0.5 mL⋅L−1 [O2]) associated with abrupt (<100 y) warming of the eastern Pacific. The biotic turnover and recovery events within the record expand known rates of marine biological recovery by an order of magnitude, from <100 to >1,000 y, and illustrate the crucial role of climate and oceanographic change in driving long-term successional changes in ocean ecosystems. PMID:25825727

  9. Response of seafloor ecosystems to abrupt global climate change.

    PubMed

    Moffitt, Sarah E; Hill, Tessa M; Roopnarine, Peter D; Kennett, James P

    2015-04-14

    Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to decrease oceanic oxygen (O2) concentrations, with potentially significant effects on marine ecosystems. Geologically recent episodes of abrupt climatic warming provide opportunities to assess the effects of changing oxygenation on marine communities. Thus far, this knowledge has been largely restricted to investigations using Foraminifera, with little being known about ecosystem-scale responses to abrupt, climate-forced deoxygenation. We here present high-resolution records based on the first comprehensive quantitative analysis, to our knowledge, of changes in marine metazoans (Mollusca, Echinodermata, Arthropoda, and Annelida; >5,400 fossils and trace fossils) in response to the global warming associated with the last glacial to interglacial episode. The molluscan archive is dominated by extremophile taxa, including those containing endosymbiotic sulfur-oxidizing bacteria (Lucinoma aequizonatum) and those that graze on filamentous sulfur-oxidizing benthic bacterial mats (Alia permodesta). This record, from 16,100 to 3,400 y ago, demonstrates that seafloor invertebrate communities are subject to major turnover in response to relatively minor inferred changes in oxygenation (>1.5 to <0.5 mL⋅L(-1) [O2]) associated with abrupt (<100 y) warming of the eastern Pacific. The biotic turnover and recovery events within the record expand known rates of marine biological recovery by an order of magnitude, from <100 to >1,000 y, and illustrate the crucial role of climate and oceanographic change in driving long-term successional changes in ocean ecosystems. PMID:25825727

  10. The Arctic Grand Challenge: Abrupt Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilkniss, P. E.

    2003-12-01

    Trouble in polar paradise (Science, 08/30/02), significant changes in the Arctic environment are scientifically documented (R.E. Moritz et al. ibid.). More trouble, lots more, "abrupt climate change," (R. B. Alley, et al. Science 03/28/03). R. Corell, Arctic Climate Impact Assessment team (ACIA), "If you want to see what will happen in the rest of the world 25 years from now just look what's happening in the Arctic," (Arctic Council meeting, Iceland, 08/03). What to do? Make abrupt Arctic climate change a grand challenge for the IPY-4 and beyond! Scientifically:Describe the "state" of the Arctic climate system as succinctly as possible and accept it as the point of departure.Develop a hypothesis and criteria what constitutes "abrupt climate change," in the Arctic that can be tested with observations. Observations: Bring to bear existing observations and coordinate new investments in observations through an IPY-4 scientific management committee. Make the new Barrow, Alaska, Global Climate Change Research Facility a major U.S. contribution and focal point for the IPY-4 in the U.S Arctic. Arctic populations, Native peoples: The people of the North are living already, daily, with wrenching change, encroaching on their habitats and cultures. For them "the earth is faster now," (I. Krupnik and D. Jolly, ARCUS, 2002). From a political, economic, social and entirely realistic perspective, an Arctic grand challenge without the total integration of the Native peoples in this effort cannot succeed. Therefore: Communications must be established, and the respective Native entities must be approached with the determination to create well founded, well functioning, enduring partnerships. In the U.S. Arctic, Barrow with its long history of involvement and active support of science and with the new global climate change research facility should be the focal point of choice Private industry: Resource extraction in the Arctic followed by oil and gas consumption, return the combustion

  11. Catalogue of abrupt shifts in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate models.

    PubMed

    Drijfhout, Sybren; Bathiany, Sebastian; Beaulieu, Claudie; Brovkin, Victor; Claussen, Martin; Huntingford, Chris; Scheffer, Marten; Sgubin, Giovanni; Swingedouw, Didier

    2015-10-27

    Abrupt transitions of regional climate in response to the gradual rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are notoriously difficult to foresee. However, such events could be particularly challenging in view of the capacity required for society and ecosystems to adapt to them. We present, to our knowledge, the first systematic screening of the massive climate model ensemble informing the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, and reveal evidence of 37 forced regional abrupt changes in the ocean, sea ice, snow cover, permafrost, and terrestrial biosphere that arise after a certain global temperature increase. Eighteen out of 37 events occur for global warming levels of less than 2°, a threshold sometimes presented as a safe limit. Although most models predict one or more such events, any specific occurrence typically appears in only a few models. We find no compelling evidence for a general relation between the overall number of abrupt shifts and the level of global warming. However, we do note that abrupt changes in ocean circulation occur more often for moderate warming (less than 2°), whereas over land they occur more often for warming larger than 2°. Using a basic proportion test, however, we find that the number of abrupt shifts identified in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenarios is significantly larger than in other scenarios of lower radiative forcing. This suggests the potential for a gradual trend of destabilization of the climate with respect to such shifts, due to increasing global mean temperature change. PMID:26460042

  12. Catalogue of abrupt shifts in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate models

    PubMed Central

    Drijfhout, Sybren; Bathiany, Sebastian; Beaulieu, Claudie; Brovkin, Victor; Claussen, Martin; Huntingford, Chris; Scheffer, Marten; Sgubin, Giovanni; Swingedouw, Didier

    2015-01-01

    Abrupt transitions of regional climate in response to the gradual rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are notoriously difficult to foresee. However, such events could be particularly challenging in view of the capacity required for society and ecosystems to adapt to them. We present, to our knowledge, the first systematic screening of the massive climate model ensemble informing the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, and reveal evidence of 37 forced regional abrupt changes in the ocean, sea ice, snow cover, permafrost, and terrestrial biosphere that arise after a certain global temperature increase. Eighteen out of 37 events occur for global warming levels of less than 2°, a threshold sometimes presented as a safe limit. Although most models predict one or more such events, any specific occurrence typically appears in only a few models. We find no compelling evidence for a general relation between the overall number of abrupt shifts and the level of global warming. However, we do note that abrupt changes in ocean circulation occur more often for moderate warming (less than 2°), whereas over land they occur more often for warming larger than 2°. Using a basic proportion test, however, we find that the number of abrupt shifts identified in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenarios is significantly larger than in other scenarios of lower radiative forcing. This suggests the potential for a gradual trend of destabilization of the climate with respect to such shifts, due to increasing global mean temperature change. PMID:26460042

  13. Abrupt Atmospheric Methane Increases Associated With Hudson Strait Heinrich Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rhodes, R.; Brook, E.; Chiang, J. C. H.; Blunier, T.; Maselli, O. J.; McConnell, J. R.; Romanini, D.; Severinghaus, J. P.

    2015-12-01

    The drivers of abrupt climate change during the Last Glacial Period are not well understood. While Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) cycles are thought to be linked to variations in the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Ocean Circulation (AMOC), it is not clear how or if Heinrich Events—extensive influxes of icebergs into the North Atlantic Ocean that impacted global climate and biogeochemistry—are related. An enduring problem is the difficultly in dating iceberg rafted debris deposits that typically lack foraminifera. Here we present an ultra-high resolution record of methane from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide ice core at unprecedented, continuous temporal resolution from 67.2-9.8 ka BP, which we propose constrains the timing of Heinrich events. Our methane record essentially mirrors Greenland ice core stable isotope variability across D-O events, except during Heinrich stadials 1, 2, 4 and 5. Partway through these stadials only, methane increases abruptly and rapidly, as at the onset of a D-O event but Greenland temperature exhibits no equivalent response. Speleothem records exhibit signatures of drought in the Northern extra-tropics and intensified monsoonal activity over South America at these times. We use a simple heuristic model to propose that cold air temperatures and extensive sea ice in the North, resulting from Heinrich events, caused extreme reorganization of tropical hydroclimate. This involved curtailment of the seasonal northerly migration of tropical rain belts, leading to intensification of rainfall over Southern Hemisphere tropical wetlands, thus allowing production of excess methane relative to a 'normal' Greenland stadial. We note that this mechanism can operate if AMOC is already in a slowed state when a Heinrich event occurs, as paleo-evidence suggests it was. Heinrich events and associated sea ice cover would therefore act to prolong the duration of this AMOC state. Our findings place the big four Heinrich events of Hudson Strait origin

  14. Abrupt glacial climate shifts controlled by ice sheet changes.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Xu; Lohmann, Gerrit; Knorr, Gregor; Purcell, Conor

    2014-08-21

    During glacial periods of the Late Pleistocene, an abundance of proxy data demonstrates the existence of large and repeated millennial-scale warming episodes, known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. This ubiquitous feature of rapid glacial climate change can be extended back as far as 800,000 years before present (BP) in the ice core record, and has drawn broad attention within the science and policy-making communities alike. Many studies have been dedicated to investigating the underlying causes of these changes, but no coherent mechanism has yet been identified. Here we show, by using a comprehensive fully coupled model, that gradual changes in the height of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets (NHISs) can alter the coupled atmosphere-ocean system and cause rapid glacial climate shifts closely resembling DO events. The simulated global climate responses--including abrupt warming in the North Atlantic, a northward shift of the tropical rainbelts, and Southern Hemisphere cooling related to the bipolar seesaw--are generally consistent with empirical evidence. As a result of the coexistence of two glacial ocean circulation states at intermediate heights of the ice sheets, minor changes in the height of the NHISs and the amount of atmospheric CO2 can trigger the rapid climate transitions via a local positive atmosphere-ocean-sea-ice feedback in the North Atlantic. Our results, although based on a single model, thus provide a coherent concept for understanding the recorded millennial-scale variability and abrupt climate changes in the coupled atmosphere-ocean system, as well as their linkages to the volume of the intermediate ice sheets during glacials. PMID:25119027

  15. Abrupt glacial climate shifts controlled by ice sheet changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Xu; Lohmann, Gerrit; Knorr, Gregor; Purcell, Conor

    2014-08-01

    During glacial periods of the Late Pleistocene, an abundance of proxy data demonstrates the existence of large and repeated millennial-scale warming episodes, known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. This ubiquitous feature of rapid glacial climate change can be extended back as far as 800,000 years before present (BP) in the ice core record, and has drawn broad attention within the science and policy-making communities alike. Many studies have been dedicated to investigating the underlying causes of these changes, but no coherent mechanism has yet been identified. Here we show, by using a comprehensive fully coupled model, that gradual changes in the height of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets (NHISs) can alter the coupled atmosphere-ocean system and cause rapid glacial climate shifts closely resembling DO events. The simulated global climate responses--including abrupt warming in the North Atlantic, a northward shift of the tropical rainbelts, and Southern Hemisphere cooling related to the bipolar seesaw--are generally consistent with empirical evidence. As a result of the coexistence of two glacial ocean circulation states at intermediate heights of the ice sheets, minor changes in the height of the NHISs and the amount of atmospheric CO2 can trigger the rapid climate transitions via a local positive atmosphere-ocean-sea-ice feedback in the North Atlantic. Our results, although based on a single model, thus provide a coherent concept for understanding the recorded millennial-scale variability and abrupt climate changes in the coupled atmosphere-ocean system, as well as their linkages to the volume of the intermediate ice sheets during glacials.

  16. The Role of the Tropics in Abrupt Climate Changes

    SciTech Connect

    Fedorov, Alexey

    2013-12-07

    Topics addressed include: abrupt climate changes and ocean circulation in the tropics; what controls the ocean thermal structure in the tropics; a permanent El Niño in paleoclimates; the energetics of the tropical ocean.

  17. Sensitivity and Thresholds of Ecosystems to Abrupt Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peteet, D. M.; Peteet, D. M.

    2001-12-01

    Rapid vegetational change is a hallmark of past abrupt climate change, as evidenced from Younger Dryas records in Europe, eastern North America, and the Pacific North American rim. The potential response of future ecosystems to abrupt climate change is targeted, with a focus on particular changes in the hydrological cycle. The vulnerability of ecosystems is notable when particular shifts cross thresholds of precipitation and temperature, as many plants and animals are adapted to specific climatic "windows". Significant forest species compositional changes occur at ecotonal boundaries, which are often the first locations to record a climatic response. Historical forest declines have been linked to stress, and even Pleistocene extinctions have been associated with human interaction at times of rapid climatic shifts. Environmental extremes are risky for reproductive stages, and result in nonlinearities. The role of humans in association with abrupt climate change suggests that many ecosystems may cross thresholds from which they will find it difficult to recover. Sectors particularly vulnerable will be reviewed.

  18. International policy implications of abrupt climate change scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Molitor, M.R.

    1997-12-31

    New theoretical and empirical evidence supports the view that in the recent past [Holocene] abrupt climate changes occurred over very short [decadal] time periods. One leading possibility of future changes involves the North Atlantic Ocean conveyor that transfers warm surface waters from the equator to northern latitudes and helps maintain Europe`s climate. The predicted abrupt climate change scenario theorizes that the conveyor may be modified as a result of disruption of the thermohaline circulation driving North, Atlantic Deep Water. This would lead, the theory contends, to a rapid cooling of Europe`s climate. In light of the EPCC`s 1995 Second Assessment Report conclusion that there is a {open_quotes}discernible{close_quotes} human influence on the global climate system, there are many emerging questions concerning possible abrupt climate change scenarios.

  19. Dynamic response of desert wetlands to abrupt climate change

    PubMed Central

    Springer, Kathleen B.; Manker, Craig R.; Pigati, Jeffrey S.

    2015-01-01

    Desert wetlands are keystone ecosystems in arid environments and are preserved in the geologic record as groundwater discharge (GWD) deposits. GWD deposits are inherently discontinuous and stratigraphically complex, which has limited our understanding of how desert wetlands responded to past episodes of rapid climate change. Previous studies have shown that wetlands responded to climate change on glacial to interglacial timescales, but their sensitivity to short-lived climate perturbations is largely unknown. Here, we show that GWD deposits in the Las Vegas Valley (southern Nevada, United States) provide a detailed and nearly complete record of dynamic hydrologic changes during the past 35 ka (thousands of calibrated 14C years before present), including cycles of wetland expansion and contraction that correlate tightly with climatic oscillations recorded in the Greenland ice cores. Cessation of discharge associated with rapid warming events resulted in the collapse of entire wetland systems in the Las Vegas Valley at multiple times during the late Quaternary. On average, drought-like conditions, as recorded by widespread erosion and the formation of desert soils, lasted for a few centuries. This record illustrates the vulnerability of desert wetland flora and fauna to abrupt climate change. It also shows that GWD deposits can be used to reconstruct paleohydrologic conditions at millennial to submillennial timescales and informs conservation efforts aimed at protecting these fragile ecosystems in the face of anthropogenic warming. PMID:26554007

  20. Dynamic response of desert wetlands to abrupt climate change.

    PubMed

    Springer, Kathleen B; Manker, Craig R; Pigati, Jeffrey S

    2015-11-24

    Desert wetlands are keystone ecosystems in arid environments and are preserved in the geologic record as groundwater discharge (GWD) deposits. GWD deposits are inherently discontinuous and stratigraphically complex, which has limited our understanding of how desert wetlands responded to past episodes of rapid climate change. Previous studies have shown that wetlands responded to climate change on glacial to interglacial timescales, but their sensitivity to short-lived climate perturbations is largely unknown. Here, we show that GWD deposits in the Las Vegas Valley (southern Nevada, United States) provide a detailed and nearly complete record of dynamic hydrologic changes during the past 35 ka (thousands of calibrated (14)C years before present), including cycles of wetland expansion and contraction that correlate tightly with climatic oscillations recorded in the Greenland ice cores. Cessation of discharge associated with rapid warming events resulted in the collapse of entire wetland systems in the Las Vegas Valley at multiple times during the late Quaternary. On average, drought-like conditions, as recorded by widespread erosion and the formation of desert soils, lasted for a few centuries. This record illustrates the vulnerability of desert wetland flora and fauna to abrupt climate change. It also shows that GWD deposits can be used to reconstruct paleohydrologic conditions at millennial to submillennial timescales and informs conservation efforts aimed at protecting these fragile ecosystems in the face of anthropogenic warming. PMID:26554007

  1. Dynamic response of desert wetlands to abrupt climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Springer, Kathleen; Manker, Craig; Pigati, Jeff

    2015-01-01

    Desert wetlands are keystone ecosystems in arid environments and are preserved in the geologic record as groundwater discharge (GWD) deposits. GWD deposits are inherently discontinuous and stratigraphically complex, which has limited our understanding of how desert wetlands responded to past episodes of rapid climate change. Previous studies have shown that wetlands responded to climate change on glacial to interglacial timescales, but their sensitivity to short-lived climate perturbations is largely unknown. Here, we show that GWD deposits in the Las Vegas Valley (southern Nevada, United States) provide a detailed and nearly complete record of dynamic hydrologic changes during the past 35 ka (thousands of calibrated 14C years before present), including cycles of wetland expansion and contraction that correlate tightly with climatic oscillations recorded in the Greenland ice cores. Cessation of discharge associated with rapid warming events resulted in the collapse of entire wetland systems in the Las Vegas Valley at multiple times during the late Quaternary. On average, drought-like conditions, as recorded by widespread erosion and the formation of desert soils, lasted for a few centuries. This record illustrates the vulnerability of desert wetland flora and fauna to abrupt climate change. It also shows that GWD deposits can be used to reconstruct paleohydrologic conditions at millennial to submillennial timescales and informs conservation efforts aimed at protecting these fragile ecosystems in the face of anthropogenic warming.

  2. Abrupt climate change in southeast tropical Africa influenced by Indian monsoon variability and ITCZ migration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tierney, Jessica E.; Russell, James M.

    2007-08-01

    The timing and magnitude of abrupt climate change in tropical Africa during the last glacial termination remains poorly understood. High-resolution paleolimnological data from Lake Tanganyika, Southeast Africa show that wind-driven seasonal mixing in the lake was reduced during the Younger Dryas, Inter-Allerød Cool Period, Older Dryas, and Heinrich Event 1, suggesting a weakened southwest Indian monsoon and a more southerly position of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone over Africa during these intervals. These events in Lake Tanganyika, coeval with millennial and centennial-scale climate shifts in the high latitudes, suggest that changes in ITCZ location and Indian monsoon strength are important components of abrupt global climate change and that their effects are felt south of the equator in Africa. However, we observe additional events in Lake Tanganyika of equal magnitude that are not correlated with high-latitude changes, indicating the potential for abrupt climate change to originate from within tropical systems.

  3. Abrupt climate shift in the Western Mediterranean Sea

    PubMed Central

    Schroeder, K.; Chiggiato, J.; Bryden, H. L.; Borghini, M.; Ben Ismail, S.

    2016-01-01

    One century of oceanographic measurements has evidenced gradual increases in temperature and salinity of western Mediterranean water masses, even though the vertical stratification has basically remained unchanged. Starting in 2005, the basic structure of the intermediate and deep layers abruptly changed. We report here evidence of reinforced thermohaline variability in the deep western basin with significant dense water formation events producing large amounts of warmer, saltier and denser water masses than ever before. We provide a detailed chronological order to these changes, giving an overview of the new water masses and following their route from the central basin interior to the east (toward the Tyrrhenian) and toward the Atlantic Ocean. As a consequence of this climate shift, new deep waters outflowing through Gibraltar will impact the North Atlantic in terms of salt and heat input. In addition, modifications in the Mediterranean abyssal ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles are to be expected. PMID:26965790

  4. Abrupt climate shift in the Western Mediterranean Sea.

    PubMed

    Schroeder, K; Chiggiato, J; Bryden, H L; Borghini, M; Ben Ismail, S

    2016-01-01

    One century of oceanographic measurements has evidenced gradual increases in temperature and salinity of western Mediterranean water masses, even though the vertical stratification has basically remained unchanged. Starting in 2005, the basic structure of the intermediate and deep layers abruptly changed. We report here evidence of reinforced thermohaline variability in the deep western basin with significant dense water formation events producing large amounts of warmer, saltier and denser water masses than ever before. We provide a detailed chronological order to these changes, giving an overview of the new water masses and following their route from the central basin interior to the east (toward the Tyrrhenian) and toward the Atlantic Ocean. As a consequence of this climate shift, new deep waters outflowing through Gibraltar will impact the North Atlantic in terms of salt and heat input. In addition, modifications in the Mediterranean abyssal ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles are to be expected. PMID:26965790

  5. Abrupt climate shift in the Western Mediterranean Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schroeder, K.; Chiggiato, J.; Bryden, H. L.; Borghini, M.; Ben Ismail, S.

    2016-03-01

    One century of oceanographic measurements has evidenced gradual increases in temperature and salinity of western Mediterranean water masses, even though the vertical stratification has basically remained unchanged. Starting in 2005, the basic structure of the intermediate and deep layers abruptly changed. We report here evidence of reinforced thermohaline variability in the deep western basin with significant dense water formation events producing large amounts of warmer, saltier and denser water masses than ever before. We provide a detailed chronological order to these changes, giving an overview of the new water masses and following their route from the central basin interior to the east (toward the Tyrrhenian) and toward the Atlantic Ocean. As a consequence of this climate shift, new deep waters outflowing through Gibraltar will impact the North Atlantic in terms of salt and heat input. In addition, modifications in the Mediterranean abyssal ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles are to be expected.

  6. Abrupt shifts in phenology and vegetation productivity under climate extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, Xuanlong; Huete, Alfredo; Moran, Susan; Ponce-Campos, Guillermo; Eamus, Derek

    2015-10-01

    Amplification of the hydrologic cycle as a consequence of global warming is predicted to increase climate variability and the frequency and severity of droughts. Recent large-scale drought and flooding over numerous continents provide unique opportunities to understand ecosystem responses to climatic extremes. In this study, we investigated the impacts of the early 21st century extreme hydroclimatic variations in southeastern Australia on phenology and vegetation productivity using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Enhanced Vegetation Index and Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index. Results revealed dramatic impacts of drought and wet extremes on vegetation dynamics, with abrupt between year changes in phenology. Drought resulted in widespread reductions or collapse in the normal patterns of seasonality such that in many cases there was no detectable phenological cycle during drought years. Across the full range of biomes examined, we found semiarid ecosystems to exhibit the largest sensitivity to hydroclimatic variations, exceeding that of arid and humid ecosystems. This result demonstrated the vulnerability of semiarid ecosystems to climatic extremes and potential loss of ecosystem resilience with future mega-drought events. A skewed distribution of hydroclimatic sensitivity with aridity is of global biogeochemical significance because it suggests that current drying trends in semiarid regions will reduce hydroclimatic sensitivity and suppress the large carbon sink that has been reported during recent wet periods (e.g., 2011 La Niña).

  7. Abrupt climate change and thermohaline circulation: Mechanisms and predictability

    PubMed Central

    Marotzke, Jochem

    2000-01-01

    The ocean's thermohaline circulation has long been recognized as potentially unstable and has consequently been invoked as a potential cause of abrupt climate change on all timescales of decades and longer. However, fundamental aspects of thermohaline circulation changes remain poorly understood. PMID:10677464

  8. Abrupt climate change and thermohaline circulation: mechanisms and predictability.

    PubMed

    Marotzke, J

    2000-02-15

    The ocean's thermohaline circulation has long been recognized as potentially unstable and has consequently been invoked as a potential cause of abrupt climate change on all timescales of decades and longer. However, fundamental aspects of thermohaline circulation changes remain poorly understood. PMID:10677464

  9. The role of the thermohaline circulation in abrupt climate change.

    PubMed

    Clark, Peter U; Pisias, Nicklas G; Stocker, Thomas F; Weaver, Andrew J

    2002-02-21

    The possibility of a reduced Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to increases in greenhouse-gas concentrations has been demonstrated in a number of simulations with general circulation models of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. But it remains difficult to assess the likelihood of future changes in the thermohaline circulation, mainly owing to poorly constrained model parameterizations and uncertainties in the response of the climate system to greenhouse warming. Analyses of past abrupt climate changes help to solve these problems. Data and models both suggest that abrupt climate change during the last glaciation originated through changes in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to small changes in the hydrological cycle. Atmospheric and oceanic responses to these changes were then transmitted globally through a number of feedbacks. The palaeoclimate data and the model results also indicate that the stability of the thermohaline circulation depends on the mean climate state. PMID:11859359

  10. Abrupt climate change and transient climates during the Paleogene: a marine perspective

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zachos, J. C.; Lohmann, K. C.; Walker, J. C.; Wise, S. W.

    1993-01-01

    Detailed investigations of high latitude sequences recently collected by the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) indicate that periods of rapid climate change often culminated in brief transient climates, with more extreme conditions than subsequent long term climates. Two examples of such events have been identified in the Paleogene; the first in latest Paleocene time in the middle of a warming trend that began several million years earlier: the second in earliest Oligocene time near the end of a Middle Eocene to Late Oligocene global cooling trend. Superimposed on the earlier event was a sudden and extreme warming of both high latitude sea surface and deep ocean waters. Imbedded in the latter transition was an abrupt decline in high latitude temperatures and the brief appearance of a full size continental ice-sheet on Antarctica. In both cases the climate extremes were not stable, lasting for less than a few hundred thousand years, indicating a temporary or transient climate state. Geochemical and sedimentological evidence suggest that both Paleogene climate events were accompanied by reorganizations in ocean circulation, and major perturbations in marine productivity and the global carbon cycle. The Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum was marked by reduced oceanic turnover and decreases in global delta 13C and in marine productivity, while the Early Oligocene glacial maximum was accompanied by intensification of deep ocean circulation and elevated delta 13C and productivity. It has been suggested that sudden changes in climate and/or ocean circulation might occur as a result of gradual forcing as certain physical thresholds are exceeded. We investigate the possibility that sudden reorganizations in ocean and/or atmosphere circulation during these abrupt transitions generated short-term positive feedbacks that briefly sustained these transient climatic states.

  11. North Pacific deglacial hypoxic events linked to abrupt ocean warming.

    PubMed

    Praetorius, S K; Mix, A C; Walczak, M H; Wolhowe, M D; Addison, J A; Prahl, F G

    2015-11-19

    Marine sediments from the North Pacific document two episodes of expansion and strengthening of the subsurface oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) accompanied by seafloor hypoxia during the last deglacial transition. The mechanisms driving this hypoxia remain under debate. We present a new high-resolution alkenone palaeotemperature reconstruction from the Gulf of Alaska that reveals two abrupt warming events of 4-5 degrees Celsius at the onset of the Bølling and Holocene intervals that coincide with sudden shifts to hypoxia at intermediate depths. The presence of diatomaceous laminations and hypoxia-tolerant benthic foraminiferal species, peaks in redox-sensitive trace metals, and enhanced (15)N/(14)N ratio of organic matter, collectively suggest association with high export production. A decrease in (18)O/(16)O values of benthic foraminifera accompanying the most severe deoxygenation event indicates subsurface warming of up to about 2 degrees Celsius. We infer that abrupt warming triggered expansion of the North Pacific OMZ through reduced oxygen solubility and increased marine productivity via physiological effects; following initiation of hypoxia, remobilization of iron from hypoxic sediments could have provided a positive feedback on ocean deoxygenation through increased nutrient utilization and carbon export. Such a biogeochemical amplification process implies high sensitivity of OMZ expansion to warming. PMID:26581293

  12. Precise Interhemispheric Phasing of the Bipolar Seesaw during Abrupt Dansgaard-Oeschger Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buizert, C.; Baggenstos, D.; Brook, E.; Cuffey, K. M.; Fudge, T. J.; Markle, B. R.; McConnell, J. R.; Rhodes, R.; Severinghaus, J. P.; Sowers, T. A.; Steig, E. J.; Taylor, K.

    2014-12-01

    Late Pleistocene glacial periods exhibit abrupt Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) climatic oscillations, evidence of which is preserved in a variety of northern hemisphere (NH) palaeoclimatic archives. Ice cores show Antarctica is cooling during the warm phases of the Greenland DO cycle and vice versa, suggesting an interhemispheric redistribution of heat through a mechanism dubbed the bipolar seesaw. While it is generally accepted that variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength play an important role, great uncertainty remains regarding the dynamics and trigger of the abrupt events. Key information is contained in the relative phasing of hemispheric climate variations, yet the large and poorly constrained ice age-gas age difference (Dage) in Antarctic ice cores has precluded methane-based synchronization at the required sub-centennial precision. Here we present a new high accumulation deep Antarctic ice core, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS)-Divide core, that is used to resolve the timing of the bipolar seesaw at unprecedented temporal resolution. We find that the abrupt Greenland warming phase leads the corresponding Antarctic cooling by 195 ± 59 years for DO-events, including the Bølling period; Greenland cooling leads the corresponding Antarctic warming by 179 ± 61 years. The centennial NH lead time shows that the abrupt phases of the DO cycle are initiated in the NH, after which the temperature anomaly is propagated to the southern hemisphere (SH) high latitudes via an oceanic teleconnection. The similar phasing of warming and cooling events suggests that to first order the transfer time of the climatic signal is independent of the AMOC background state. Our findings confirm the central role ocean circulation plays in the seesaw, and provide a clear criterion for testing hypotheses and model simulations of DO dynamics.

  13. PALEOECOLOGY. Abrupt warming events drove Late Pleistocene Holarctic megafaunal turnover.

    PubMed

    Cooper, Alan; Turney, Chris; Hughen, Konrad A; Brook, Barry W; McDonald, H Gregory; Bradshaw, Corey J A

    2015-08-01

    The mechanisms of Late Pleistocene megafauna extinctions remain fiercely contested, with human impact or climate change cited as principal drivers. We compared ancient DNA and radiocarbon data from 31 detailed time series of regional megafaunal extinctions and replacements over the past 56,000 years with standard and new combined records of Northern Hemisphere climate in the Late Pleistocene. Unexpectedly, rapid climate changes associated with interstadial warming events are strongly associated with the regional replacement or extinction of major genetic clades or species of megafauna. The presence of many cryptic biotic transitions before the Pleistocene/Holocene boundary revealed by ancient DNA confirms the importance of climate change in megafaunal population extinctions and suggests that metapopulation structures necessary to survive such repeated and rapid climatic shifts were susceptible to human impacts. PMID:26250679

  14. Simulating the vegetation response in western Europe to abrupt climate changes under glacial background conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Woillez, M.-N.; Kageyama, M.; Combourieu-Nebout, N.; Krinner, G.

    2013-03-01

    The last glacial period has been punctuated by two types of abrupt climatic events, the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) and Heinrich (HE) events. These events, recorded in Greenland ice and in marine sediments, involved changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and led to major changes in the terrestrial biosphere. Here we use the dynamical global vegetation model ORCHIDEE to simulate the response of vegetation to abrupt changes in the AMOC strength. We force ORCHIDEE offline with outputs from the IPSL_CM4 general circulation model, in which the AMOC is forced to change by adding freshwater fluxes in the North Atlantic. We investigate the impact of a collapse and recovery of the AMOC, at different rates, and focus on Western Europe, where many pollen records are available for comparison. The impact of an AMOC collapse on the European mean temperatures and precipitations simulated by the GCM is relatively small but sufficient to drive an important regression of forests and expansion of grasses in ORCHIDEE, in qualitative agreement with pollen data for an HE event. On the contrary, a run with a rapid shift of the AMOC to a hyperactive state of 30 Sv, mimicking the warming phase of a DO event, does not exhibit a strong impact on the European vegetation compared to the glacial control state. For our model, simulating the impact of an HE event thus appears easier than simulating the abrupt transition towards the interstadial phase of a DO. For both a collapse or a recovery of the AMOC, the vegetation starts to respond to climatic changes immediately but reaches equilibrium about 200 yr after the climate equilibrates, suggesting a possible bias in the climatic reconstructions based on pollen records, which assume equilibrium between climate and vegetation. However, our study does not take into account vegetation feedbacks on the atmosphere.

  15. H4 abrupt event and late Neanderthal presence in Iberia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sepulchre, Pierre; Ramstein, Gilles; Kageyama, Masa; Vanhaeren, Marian; Krinner, Gerhard; Sánchez-Goñi, María-Fernanda; d'Errico, Francesco

    2007-06-01

    Heinrich event 4 (H4) is well documented in the North Atlantic Ocean and the adjacent continents as a cooling event 39,000 yr before present (BP). To quantify the impact of this event with respect to climate and vegetation over the Iberian Peninsula, we perform numerical experiments using a high-resolution general circulation model forced by sea surface temperatures before and during H4. Our model simulates an expansion of aridity over the peninsula during H4, a desertification of the south, and a replacement of arboreal by herbaceous plants in the north, all of which are in agreement with contemporaneous pollen sequences from marine cores located off the Iberian Peninsula. Our simulations demonstrate that the H4 marine event imprinted drastic changes over Southern Iberia, which would not have favoured its occupation by Anatomically Modern Humans, therefore providing a plausible explanation for the delayed extinction of Neanderthals in this region inferred from the archaeological record.

  16. Precise interpolar phasing of abrupt climate change during the last ice age

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    WAIS Divide Project Members; Buizert, Christo; Adrian, Betty M.; Ahn, Jinho; Albert, Mary; Alley, Richard B.; Baggenstos, Daniel; Bauska, Thomas K.; Bay, Ryan C.; Bencivengo, Brian B.; Bentley, Charles R.; Brook, Edward J.; Chellman, Nathan J.; Clow, Gary D.; Cole-Dai, Jihong; Conway, Howard; Cravens, Eric; Cuffey, Kurt M.; Dunbar, Nelia W.; Edwards, Jon S.; Fegyveresi, John M.; Ferris, Dave G.; Fitzpatrick, Joan J.; Fudge, T. J.; Gibson, Chris J.; Gkinis, Vasileios; Goetz, Joshua J.; Gregory, Stephanie; Hargreaves, Geoffrey Mill; Iverson, Nels; Johnson, Jay A.; Jones, Tyler R.; Kalk, Michael L.; Kippenhan, Matthew J.; Koffman, Bess G.; Kreutz, Karl; Kuhl, Tanner W.; Lebar, Donald A.; Lee, James E.; Marcott, Shaun A.; Markle, Bradley R.; Maselli, Olivia J.; McConnell, Joseph R.; McGwire, Kenneth C.; Mitchell, Logan E.; Mortensen, Nicolai B.; Neff, Peter D.; Nishiizumi, Kunihiko; Nunn, Richard M.; Orsi, Anais J.; Pasteris, Daniel R.; Pedro, Joel B.; Pettit, Erin C.; Price, P. Buford; Priscu, John C.; Rhodes, Rachael H.; Rosen, Julia L.; Schauer, Andrew J.; Schoenemann, Spruce W.; Sendelbach, Paul J.; Severinghaus, Jeffrey P.; Shturmakov, Alexander J.; Sigl, Michael; Slawny, Kristina R.; Souney, Joseph M.; Sowers, Todd A.; Spencer, Matthew K.; Steig, Eric J.; Taylor, Kendrick C.; Twickler, Mark S.; Vaughn, Bruce H.; Voigt, Donald E.; Waddington, Edwin D.; Welten, Kees C.; Wendricks, Anthony W.; White, James W. C.; Winstrup, Mai; Wong, Gifford J.; Woodruff, Thomas E.

    2015-01-01

    The last glacial period exhibited abrupt Dansgaard–Oeschger climatic oscillations, evidence of which is preserved in a variety of Northern Hemisphere palaeoclimate archives1. Ice cores show that Antarctica cooled during the warm phases of the Greenland Dansgaard–Oeschger cycle and vice versa2, 3, suggesting an interhemispheric redistribution of heat through a mechanism called the bipolar seesaw4, 5, 6. Variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength are thought to have been important, but much uncertainty remains regarding the dynamics and trigger of these abrupt events7, 8, 9. Key information is contained in the relative phasing of hemispheric climate variations, yet the large, poorly constrained difference between gas age and ice age and the relatively low resolution of methane records from Antarctic ice cores have so far precluded methane-based synchronization at the required sub-centennial precision2, 3,10. Here we use a recently drilled high-accumulation Antarctic ice core to show that, on average, abrupt Greenland warming leads the corresponding Antarctic cooling onset by 218 ± 92 years (2σ) for Dansgaard–Oeschger events, including the Bølling event; Greenland cooling leads the corresponding onset of Antarctic warming by 208 ± 96 years. Our results demonstrate a north-to-south directionality of the abrupt climatic signal, which is propagated to the Southern Hemisphere high latitudes by oceanic rather than atmospheric processes. The similar interpolar phasing of warming and cooling transitions suggests that the transfer time of the climatic signal is independent of the AMOC background state. Our findings confirm a central role for ocean circulation in the bipolar seesaw and provide clear criteria for assessing hypotheses and model simulations of Dansgaard–Oeschger dynamics.

  17. Precise interpolar phasing of abrupt climate change during the last ice age.

    PubMed

    2015-04-30

    The last glacial period exhibited abrupt Dansgaard-Oeschger climatic oscillations, evidence of which is preserved in a variety of Northern Hemisphere palaeoclimate archives. Ice cores show that Antarctica cooled during the warm phases of the Greenland Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle and vice versa, suggesting an interhemispheric redistribution of heat through a mechanism called the bipolar seesaw. Variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength are thought to have been important, but much uncertainty remains regarding the dynamics and trigger of these abrupt events. Key information is contained in the relative phasing of hemispheric climate variations, yet the large, poorly constrained difference between gas age and ice age and the relatively low resolution of methane records from Antarctic ice cores have so far precluded methane-based synchronization at the required sub-centennial precision. Here we use a recently drilled high-accumulation Antarctic ice core to show that, on average, abrupt Greenland warming leads the corresponding Antarctic cooling onset by 218 ± 92 years (2σ) for Dansgaard-Oeschger events, including the Bølling event; Greenland cooling leads the corresponding onset of Antarctic warming by 208 ± 96 years. Our results demonstrate a north-to-south directionality of the abrupt climatic signal, which is propagated to the Southern Hemisphere high latitudes by oceanic rather than atmospheric processes. The similar interpolar phasing of warming and cooling transitions suggests that the transfer time of the climatic signal is independent of the AMOC background state. Our findings confirm a central role for ocean circulation in the bipolar seesaw and provide clear criteria for assessing hypotheses and model simulations of Dansgaard-Oeschger dynamics. PMID:25925479

  18. Abrupt climate change and the decline of Indus urbanism

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hodell, D. A.; Dixit, Y.; Petrie, C. A.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change has been suggested as a cause for the decline of the cities of the Indus Civilization, which is believed to have begun ~4.0 to 3.9 ky B.P. Previous studies have centered on paleoclimatic records obtained from areas outside the geographic limits of the Indus Civilization, raising questions about their suitability for evaluating past climate-cultural linkages. Here we report a detailed climate record from paleolake Kotla Dahar, Haryana (28°00'095'' N, 76°57'173'' E), located at the eastern edge of the distribution of Indus settlements and ~100km to the east of the city-site of Rakhigarhi in NW India. Regional hydrologic changes are inferred using oxygen-isotope measurements of gastropod aragonite from a 2.88-m sediment section. A permanent ~4‰ increase in δ18O of shell aragonite occurred at ~4.1±0.1 ky B.P., marking an abrupt increase in evaporation/precipitation in the lake catchment. These data provide evidence for a weakening of the monsoon and shift toward drier climate on the plains of northwest (NW) India at ~4.1±0.1 ky B.P. Decreased monsoon rainfall at this time may have been linked to increased ENSO variability, and supports a possible role of climate in the transformation of the Indus Civilization from an urbanized (mature or urban Indus) to a rural (post-urban) society.

  19. Spontaneous abrupt climate change due to an atmospheric blocking-sea-ice-ocean feedback in an unforced climate model simulation.

    PubMed

    Drijfhout, Sybren; Gleeson, Emily; Dijkstra, Henk A; Livina, Valerie

    2013-12-01

    Abrupt climate change is abundant in geological records, but climate models rarely have been able to simulate such events in response to realistic forcing. Here we report on a spontaneous abrupt cooling event, lasting for more than a century, with a temperature anomaly similar to that of the Little Ice Age. The event was simulated in the preindustrial control run of a high-resolution climate model, without imposing external perturbations. Initial cooling started with a period of enhanced atmospheric blocking over the eastern subpolar gyre. In response, a southward progression of the sea-ice margin occurred, and the sea-level pressure anomaly was locked to the sea-ice margin through thermal forcing. The cold-core high steered more cold air to the area, reinforcing the sea-ice concentration anomaly east of Greenland. The sea-ice surplus was carried southward by ocean currents around the tip of Greenland. South of 70 °N, sea ice already started melting and the associated freshwater anomaly was carried to the Labrador Sea, shutting off deep convection. There, surface waters were exposed longer to atmospheric cooling and sea surface temperature dropped, causing an even larger thermally forced high above the Labrador Sea. In consequence, east of Greenland, anomalous winds changed from north to south, terminating the event with similar abruptness to its onset. Our results imply that only climate models that possess sufficient resolution to correctly represent atmospheric blocking, in combination with a sensitive sea-ice model, are able to simulate this kind of abrupt climate change. PMID:24248352

  20. Spontaneous abrupt climate change due to an atmospheric blocking–sea-ice–ocean feedback in an unforced climate model simulation

    PubMed Central

    Drijfhout, Sybren; Gleeson, Emily; Dijkstra, Henk A.; Livina, Valerie

    2013-01-01

    Abrupt climate change is abundant in geological records, but climate models rarely have been able to simulate such events in response to realistic forcing. Here we report on a spontaneous abrupt cooling event, lasting for more than a century, with a temperature anomaly similar to that of the Little Ice Age. The event was simulated in the preindustrial control run of a high-resolution climate model, without imposing external perturbations. Initial cooling started with a period of enhanced atmospheric blocking over the eastern subpolar gyre. In response, a southward progression of the sea-ice margin occurred, and the sea-level pressure anomaly was locked to the sea-ice margin through thermal forcing. The cold-core high steered more cold air to the area, reinforcing the sea-ice concentration anomaly east of Greenland. The sea-ice surplus was carried southward by ocean currents around the tip of Greenland. South of 70°N, sea ice already started melting and the associated freshwater anomaly was carried to the Labrador Sea, shutting off deep convection. There, surface waters were exposed longer to atmospheric cooling and sea surface temperature dropped, causing an even larger thermally forced high above the Labrador Sea. In consequence, east of Greenland, anomalous winds changed from north to south, terminating the event with similar abruptness to its onset. Our results imply that only climate models that possess sufficient resolution to correctly represent atmospheric blocking, in combination with a sensitive sea-ice model, are able to simulate this kind of abrupt climate change. PMID:24248352

  1. Agulhas salt-leakage oscillations during abrupt climate changes of the Late Pleistocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marino, Gianluca; Zahn, Rainer; Ziegler, Martin; Purcell, Conor; Knorr, Gregor; Hall, Ian R.; Ziveri, Patrizia; Elderfield, Henry

    2013-09-01

    An ensemble of new, high-resolution records of surface ocean hydrography from the Indian-Atlantic oceanic gateway, south of Africa, demonstrates recurrent and high-amplitude salinity oscillations in the Agulhas Leakage area during the penultimate glacial-interglacial cycle. A series of millennial-scale salinification events, indicating strengthened salt leakage into the South Atlantic, appear to correlate with abrupt changes in the North Atlantic climate and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). This interhemispheric coupling, which plausibly involved changes in the Hadley Cell and midlatitude westerlies that impacted the interocean transport at the tip of Africa, suggests that the Agulhas Leakage acted as a source of negative buoyancy for the perturbed AMOC, possibly aiding its return to full strength. Our finding points to the Indian-to-Atlantic salt transport as a potentially important modulator of the AMOC during the abrupt climate changes of the Late Pleistocene.

  2. Wildfire responses to abrupt climate change in North America

    PubMed Central

    Marlon, J. R.; Bartlein, P. J.; Walsh, M. K.; Harrison, S. P.; Brown, K. J.; Edwards, M. E.; Higuera, P. E.; Power, M. J.; Anderson, R. S.; Briles, C.; Brunelle, A.; Carcaillet, C.; Daniels, M.; Hu, F. S.; Lavoie, M.; Long, C.; Minckley, T.; Richard, P. J. H.; Scott, A. C.; Shafer, D. S.; Tinner, W.; Umbanhowar, C. E.; Whitlock, C.

    2009-01-01

    It is widely accepted, based on data from the last few decades and on model simulations, that anthropogenic climate change will cause increased fire activity. However, less attention has been paid to the relationship between abrupt climate changes and heightened fire activity in the paleorecord. We use 35 charcoal and pollen records to assess how fire regimes in North America changed during the last glacial–interglacial transition (15 to 10 ka), a time of large and rapid climate changes. We also test the hypothesis that a comet impact initiated continental-scale wildfires at 12.9 ka; the data do not support this idea, nor are continent-wide fires indicated at any time during deglaciation. There are, however, clear links between large climate changes and fire activity. Biomass burning gradually increased from the glacial period to the beginning of the Younger Dryas. Although there are changes in biomass burning during the Younger Dryas, there is no systematic trend. There is a further increase in biomass burning after the Younger Dryas. Intervals of rapid climate change at 13.9, 13.2, and 11.7 ka are marked by large increases in fire activity. The timing of changes in fire is not coincident with changes in human population density or the timing of the extinction of the megafauna. Although these factors could have contributed to fire-regime changes at individual sites or at specific times, the charcoal data indicate an important role for climate, and particularly rapid climate change, in determining broad-scale levels of fire activity. PMID:19190185

  3. Does the trigger for abrupt climate change reside in the ocean or in the atmosphere?

    PubMed

    Broecker, W S

    2003-06-01

    Two hypotheses have been put forward to explain the large and abrupt climate changes that punctuated glacial time. One attributes such changes to reorganizations of the ocean's thermohaline circulation and the other to changes in tropical atmosphere-ocean dynamics. In an attempt to distinguish between these hypotheses, two lines of evidence are examined. The first involves the timing of the freshwater injections to the northern Atlantic that have been suggested as triggers for the global impacts associated with the Younger Dryas and Heinrich events. The second has to do with evidence for precursory events associated with the Heinrich ice-rafted debris layers in the northern Atlantic and with the abrupt Dansgaard-Oeschger warmings recorded in the Santa Barbara Basin. PMID:12791974

  4. Paleoclimate. Synchronization of North Pacific and Greenland climates preceded abrupt deglacial warming.

    PubMed

    Praetorius, Summer K; Mix, Alan C

    2014-07-25

    Some proposed mechanisms for transmission of major climate change events between the North Pacific and North Atlantic predict opposing patterns of variations; others suggest synchronization. Resolving this conflict has implications for regulation of poleward heat transport and global climate change. New multidecadal-resolution foraminiferal oxygen isotope records from the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) reveal sudden shifts between intervals of synchroneity and asynchroneity with the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) δ(18)O record over the past 18,000 years. Synchronization of these regions occurred 15,500 to 11,000 years ago, just prior to and throughout the most abrupt climate transitions of the last 20,000 years, suggesting that dynamic coupling of North Pacific and North Atlantic climates may lead to critical transitions in Earth's climate system. PMID:25061208

  5. Relaxation Oscillations as a Mechanism of Abrupt Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marchal, O.; Jackson, C.; Nilsson, J.; Paul, A.; Stocker, T.

    2007-12-01

    Climate variability at the millennial time scale is difficult to rationalize, as the frequency 0.001 1/yr falls near the middle of a wide gap in the spectrum of external forcing on the climate system (between the low-frequency orbital components and the high-frequency tidal components). This situation prompted interest in the possibility for the climate system to undergo self-sustained or self-excited oscillations. Our contribution will comprise two parts. First, we will review elements from the theory of non-linear vibrations that provide a framework for the discussion of the fundamental mechanisms responsible for millennial-scale climate variability. Particular emphasis will be put on the self-sustained oscillations that occur in physical systems with one degree of freedom. In such systems self-sustained oscillations arise from the nonlinear dependence of the damping force on velocity. In the limit of very large nonlinearity, the oscillator stores energy for a relatively long period of time and releases this energy in a relatively short time, i.e., the oscillations are strongly asymmetric (relaxation oscillations). Second, we will examine the self-sustained oscillations of the meridional overturning circulation simulated by an ocean circulation model when subject to large freshwater forcing (salt addition at low latitudes and salt extraction at high latitudes). A scaling analysis provides evidence that these oscillations can be fundamentally interpreted as relaxation oscillations : the model ocean stores potential energy in the form of an unstable vertical temperature gradient for a relatively long period of time (phase of reduced MOC) and converts this potential energy into kinetic energy (phase of intense MOC) when the unstable vertical temperature gradient dominates the stable vertical salinity gradient in the density stratification. The merits and weaknesses of the hypothesis of relaxation oscillations as a mechanism of abrupt climate change will be discussed.

  6. Influence of external forcings on abrupt millennial-scale climate changes: a statistical modelling study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mitsui, Takahito; Crucifix, Michel

    2016-07-01

    The last glacial period was punctuated by a series of abrupt climate shifts, the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. The frequency of DO events varied in time, supposedly because of changes in background climate conditions. Here, the influence of external forcings on DO events is investigated with statistical modelling. We assume two types of simple stochastic dynamical systems models (double-well potential-type and oscillator-type), forced by the northern hemisphere summer insolation change and/or the global ice volume change. The model parameters are estimated by using the maximum likelihood method with the NGRIP Ca^{2+} record. The stochastic oscillator model with at least the ice volume forcing reproduces well the sample autocorrelation function of the record and the frequency changes of warming transitions in the last glacial period across MISs 2, 3, and 4. The model performance is improved with the additional insolation forcing. The BIC scores also suggest that the ice volume forcing is relatively more important than the insolation forcing, though the strength of evidence depends on the model assumption. Finally, we simulate the average number of warming transitions in the past four glacial periods, assuming the model can be extended beyond the last glacial, and compare the result with an Iberian margin sea-surface temperature (SST) record (Martrat et al. in Science 317(5837): 502-507, 2007). The simulation result supports the previous observation that abrupt millennial-scale climate changes in the penultimate glacial (MIS 6) are less frequent than in the last glacial (MISs 2-4). On the other hand, it suggests that the number of abrupt millennial-scale climate changes in older glacial periods (MISs 6, 8, and 10) might be larger than inferred from the SST record.

  7. Climate oscillations and abrupt changes in C14 data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuznetsova, T. V.; Tsirulnik, L. B.

    2004-01-01

    The radiocarbon series are analysed by a method of non-linear spectral analysis to detect time intervals of appearance of non-stationary oscillations of large amplitude, and the times of abrupt changes of their oscillation regime. The analysis shows that the most powerful cycles of the spectra can be interpreted in terms of periods (and their respective higher harmonics) of astronomical origin. An intense stationary sinusoid from the spectrum with period T˜6500 yr, the 4th harmonic of the period of equinox precession, correlates with the time variations of the geomagnetic dipole moment. The most powerful non-stationary sinusoid with mean period T=2230 yr, reflects oscillations in C14 data related to the non-dipole part of the geomagnetic field, and correlates with periods of climate warming/cooling. The apparent regularities that can be inferred in the interaction of such two powerful cycles (i.e. stationary and non-stationary parts of the uniform mechanism of the geomagnetic field generation) permit to forecast a tendency of the climate changes. A possible physical mechanism is presented based on a possible transformation, of some signals caused by perturbation of the tidal forces of astronomical origin (that can arise along the orbit of the Earth), into effects that control geophysical systems through small variations of the dissipative parameters of a dynamo system.

  8. The role of Southern Ocean winds and CO2 in glacial abrupt climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Banderas, R.; Alvarez-Solas, J.; Montoya, M.

    2011-12-01

    The last glacial period (ca. 110-10 kyr before present, hereafter kyr BP) is characterized by substantial climate instability, manifested as climatic variability on millennial timescales. Two types of events dominate this variability: Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events, which involve decadal-scale warming by more than 10K, and Heinrich events, massive iceberg discharges from the Laurentide Ice Sheet at intervals of ca. 10 kyr during peak glacial conditions. Both DO and Heinrich events are associated with widespread centennial to millennial scale climatic changes, including a synchronous temperature response over the North Atlantic and an anti-phase temperature relationship over Antarctica and most of the Southern Ocean, as revealed by a wealth of deep sea sediments and terrestrial record. Recent studies indicate CO2 changes during deglaciation and, possibly, during glacial abrupt climate changes were preceded by significant increases of Southern Ocean upwelling caused by an enhancement and/or a shift of surface winds over that region. The proposed hypothesis is that periods of halted or reduced North Atlantic deep water (NADW) formation resulted in warming of the Southern Ocean through the bipolar see-saw effect leading to a reorganization of Southern Hemisphere (SH) surface winds, and thereby enhanced upwelling and atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Here, the role of SH surface wind and CO2 changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is analyzed in a coupled climate model of intermediate complexity. We investigate whether changes in the former could eventually trigger an intensification of the Atlantic overturning circulation and a northward shift of NADW formation, which would allow to explain glacial abrupt climate changes as the result of an oscillation which involves the MOC, CO2 and the winds.

  9. Deep-Sea Biodiversity Response to Abrupt Deglacial and Holocene Climate Changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yasuhara, M.

    2014-12-01

    High-resolution records of microfossil assemblages from deep-sea sediment cores covering the last 20,000 years in the North Atlantic Ocean were investigated to understand biotic responses to abrupt climate changes over decadal-centennial timescales. The results show pervasive control of deep-sea benthic species diversity by rapidly changing climate. Species diversity rapidly increased during abrupt stadial events during the last deglacial and the Holocene interglacial periods. These included the well-known Heinrich 1, the Younger Dryas, and the 8.2 ka events when the strength of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) decreased. In addition, there is evidence for quasi-cyclic changes in biodiversity at a ~1500-year periodicity. Statistical analyses revealed that AMOC-driven bottom-water-temperature variability is a primary influence on deep-sea biodiversity. Our results may portend pervasive, synchronous and sudden ecosystem responses to human-induced changes to climate and ocean circulation in this century. Exceptionally highly resolved fossil records help us to understand past, present and future ecosystem responses to climate changes by bridging the gap between biological and palaeontological time-scales.

  10. Synchronous centennial abrupt events in the ocean and atmosphere during the last deglaciation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Tianyu; Robinson, Laura F.; Burke, Andrea; Southon, John; Spooner, Peter; Morris, Paul J.; Ng, Hong Chin

    2015-09-01

    Antarctic ice-core data reveal that the atmosphere experienced abrupt centennial increases in CO2 concentration during the last deglaciation (~18 thousand to 11 thousand years ago). Establishing the role of ocean circulation in these changes requires high-resolution, accurately dated marine records. Here, we report radiocarbon data from uranium-thorium-dated deep-sea corals in the Equatorial Atlantic and Drake Passage over the past 25,000 years. Two major deglacial radiocarbon shifts occurred in phase with centennial atmospheric CO2 rises at 14.8 thousand and 11.7 thousand years ago. We interpret these radiocarbon-enriched signals to represent two short-lived (less than 500 years) “overshoot” events, with Atlantic meridional overturning stronger than that of the modern era. These results provide compelling evidence for a close coupling of ocean circulation and centennial climate events during the last deglaciation.

  11. Synchronous centennial abrupt events in the ocean and atmosphere during the last deglaciation.

    PubMed

    Chen, Tianyu; Robinson, Laura F; Burke, Andrea; Southon, John; Spooner, Peter; Morris, Paul J; Ng, Hong Chin

    2015-09-25

    Antarctic ice-core data reveal that the atmosphere experienced abrupt centennial increases in CO2 concentration during the last deglaciation (~18 thousand to 11 thousand years ago). Establishing the role of ocean circulation in these changes requires high-resolution, accurately dated marine records. Here, we report radiocarbon data from uranium-thorium-dated deep-sea corals in the Equatorial Atlantic and Drake Passage over the past 25,000 years. Two major deglacial radiocarbon shifts occurred in phase with centennial atmospheric CO2 rises at 14.8 thousand and 11.7 thousand years ago. We interpret these radiocarbon-enriched signals to represent two short-lived (less than 500 years) "overshoot" events, with Atlantic meridional overturning stronger than that of the modern era. These results provide compelling evidence for a close coupling of ocean circulation and centennial climate events during the last deglaciation. PMID:26404835

  12. Response of atmospheric CO2 to the abrupt cooling event 8200 years ago

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahn, J.; Brook, E.; Buizert, C.

    2013-12-01

    The abrupt cooling event 8200 years ago (8.2 ka event) is the most prominent centennial scale climate event during the Holocene and was likely caused by a reduction in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Atmospheric CO2 records for this event may help us understand climate-carbon cycle feedbacks under interglacial conditions, which are important for understanding future climate, but existing ice core records do not provide enough detail and natural smoothing of the CO2 time series by diffusion and gradual bubble close-off in the firn layer (unconsolidated snow layer in the top of ice sheets) limits their resolution. Studies of leaf stomata records suggest a CO2 decrease of up to ~25 ppm during the 8.2 ka event, but relatively large uncertainties in reconstructed CO2 levels from leaves and dating make firm conclusions difficult. Here we present a new CO2 record from the Siple Dome ice core, Antarctica, that covers 7.4-9.0 ka with 8- to 16-year resolution. The relatively high snow accumulation rate at Siple Dome results minimizes smoothing relative to other records and the timing of the 8.2 ka event is precisely constrained by a CH4 record from the same core. We observe a small, ~2 ppm, increase of atmospheric CO2 during the 8.2 ka event. The increase is not remarkable when compared to other centennial variations in the Holocene that are not linked to large temperature changes. Our results imply that the sensitivity of atmospheric CO2 to the primarily northern hemisphere cooling of the 8.2 ka event was limited.

  13. Antarctic Forcing of Abrupt Global Climate Change During Isotope Stage 3

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turney, Christian; Jones, Richard; Phipps, Steven; Thomas, Zoë; Hogg, Alan; Kershaw, Peter; Fogwill, Christopher; Palmer, Jonathan; Bronk Ramsey, Christopher; Adolphi, Florian; Muscheler, Raimund; Hughen, Konrad; Staff, Richard; Grosvenor, Mark; Golledge, Nicholas; Haberle, Simon

    2016-04-01

    Contrasting Greenland and Antarctic temperature trends during the late Pleistocene (60,000 to 11,650 years ago) are thought to be driven by imbalances in the rate of formation of North Atlantic and Antarctic Deep Water (the 'bipolar seesaw'), with millennial-scale cooling Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events in the north leading warming in the south. An alternative origin for these abrupt climate shifts, however, is the Southern Hemisphere whereby changes are transmitted globally via atmospheric and/or oceanic teleconnections. Testing these competing hypotheses is challenging given the relatively large uncertainties associated with dating terrestrial, marine and ice core chronologies. Here we use a fully coupled climate system model to investigate whether freshening of the Southern Ocean has extra-regional climate impacts. Focusing on an Isotope Stage 3 cooling event preserved in Antarctic ice cores immediately prior to Antarctic Isotope Maximum 4 (AIM 4; around 29,000 years ago) we undertook an ensemble of transient meltwater simulations. We observe no impact on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) from freshwater hosing in the Southern Ocean but a dramatic warming over the North Atlantic and contrasting precipitation patterns across the low latitudes. Exploiting a new bidecadally-resolved 14C calibration dataset obtained from New Zealand kauri (Agathis australis) we undertook intensive radiocarbon dating and high-resolution multiproxy analysis of the tropical Australia Lynch's Crater terrestrial peat sequence spanning this same period and find a synchronous change in hydroclimate to the purported meltwater event in the Southern Ocean. Our results imply Southern Ocean dynamics played a significant role in driving global climate change across this period via atmospheric teleconnections, with implications for other abrupt events through the late Pleistocene.

  14. Meltwater and Abrupt Climate Change in the Gulf of Mexico During the Last Glacial Termination

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, C.; Flower, B.; Hastings, D.; Randle, N.

    2008-12-01

    During the Last Glacial Termination from 18,000-8,000 cal. yrs B.P., meltwater routing of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) may have been linked to abrupt climatic events, such as the Younger Dryas. Previous studies show episodic meltwater input from the LIS, via the Mississippi River to the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) several thousand years before the onset of the Younger Dryas until approximately 13,000 cal yrs B.P., when meltwater routing may have switched to a more northern spillway, causing an abrupt change in thermohaline circulation (THC). The exact timing and magnitude of this meltwater input to the GOM is poorly constrained due to the lack of high-resolution data. Also unknown are the detailed relationships between GOM sea surface temperature, sea surface salinity and ice volume, relative to Northern and Southern Hemisphere climate from Greenland and Antarctica ice core records. High sedimentation rates (~40 cm/kyr) from laminated, anoxic Orca Basin core MD02-2550 provide the necessary resolution to assess GOM paleoceanography. Paired Mg/Ca and δ18O values from planktonic Foraminifera species Globigerinoides ruber (pink and white varieties) provide the relative timing of meltwater input and temperature change in the GOM with nearly decadal resolution. δ18Ocalcite results show multiple cool and/or high salinity periods with isotopic excursions of at least 2‰ that coincide with abrupt climatic events in Greenland ice core records, including the Oldest Dryas from 16,200-15,000 cal. yrs B.P. and the Intra-Allerod Cold Period at 13,860-13,560 cal. yrs B.P. Meltwater input to the GOM is seen for several thousand years before the onset of the Younger Dryas with white G. ruber δ18Ocalcite values as low as -4‰. Thirty-three AMS radiocarbon dates and high-resolution δ18O results provide excellent temporal constraints on deglacial climate events, including an abrupt (<200 yrs) cessation of meltwater in the GOM centered at 10,970± 40 radiocarbon yrs B.P., with a δ18O

  15. Holocene Abrupt Climate Change Over NW Iran: The Hand That Rocked The Cradle Of Civilization?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharifi, A.; Pourmand, A.; Canuel, E. A.; Ferer-Tyler, E.; Peterson, L. C.; Aichner, B.; Feakins, S. J.; Daryaee, T.; Djamali, M.; Naderi Beni, A.; Lahijani, H. A. K.; Swart, P. K.

    2014-12-01

    Human civilizations around the globe have been influenced by abrupt climate change throughout the Holocene. The paucity of high-resolution palaeoclimate data from the "Cradle of Civilization" in West Asia, however, has limited our ability to evaluate the potential role of Holocene climate variability on early societies. We present a high-resolution, multi-proxy reconstruction of aeolian input and palaeoenvironmental conditions based on a 13-kyr record of ombrotrophic (rain fed) peat from Neor Lake in Northwest Iran. Variations in relative abundances of major and trace elements, total organic carbon (TOC), stable carbon isotopes of TOC (δ13CTOC) and compound-specific leaf wax hydrogen isotope (δD) compositions suggest dry and dusty conditions prevailed during the Younger Dryas, and a substantial increase in atmospheric dust loading and decrease in moisture availability occurred between the early and late Holocene. In addition, variations in radiogenic Sr-Nd-Hf isotopic composition and REE anomalies in samples from Neor peat core indicate significant shifts occurred in source contributions of eolian material to the study area between the Younger Dryas, early and late Holocene. Time-series analysis of aeolian input to NE Iran reveals periodicities at 540, 1050 and 2940 years that correspond with solar variability and internal climate feedbacks identified in other records of Holocene climate change from the northern hemisphere. Transitions in major Mesopotamian and Persian civilizations, including the collapse of the Akkadian empire at 4,200 yr BP, the fall of the Ur III empire at 3,955 yr BP, the fall of Elam empire at 2,500 yr BP and the demise of the Achaemenids around 2,280 BP overlap with major dust events from this study. Several other episodes of enhanced atmospheric dust, however, are not reflected in historical or archaeological accounts of the late Holocene. This indicates either abrupt climate change was not the sole driver of societal changes in the

  16. Investigation of the Impact of a Heinrich-Event-like Abrupt Event Superimposed Onto the RCP 8.5 Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Defrance, D.; Ramstein, G.; Dumas, C.; Charbit, S.

    2014-12-01

    The CMIP5/IPCC (AR5) projections of climate change showed the temperatures should increase by between 1.3 °C and 4.4 °C by 2100 and the sea level rise between 26 cm and 82 cm on average. Superimposed on these climatic and hydrologic trends associated with the RCP 8.5 most pessimistic scenario, it is important to investigate the possible effect of an abrupt event like an ice-sheet surge. This is first justified by the recent collapse of the Larsen B ice shelf which illustrates that a non-linear response of the cryosphere may occur in a warming world. Furthermore, in glacial periods, ice-sheets have been unstable and huge surges of icebergs did occur and deeply modified the climate. The aim of this presentation is to show the hypothetical climatic consequences of such a Heinrich-type event on future climate change. To achieve this goal, 3 scenarios of rapid ice-sheet deglaciation have been designed, corresponding to an additional sea level rise of around 3 m : - S1 corresponds to a contribution from Greenland only; - S2 from West-Antarctica only; - S3 from both ice-sheets. We use the global atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (OAGCM) IPSL-CM5A-LR. The freshwater perturbation is applied near the ice-sheet(s) during 20 years from 2050 to 2070 during an RCP8.5 perturbation. The RCP8.5 scenario is then continued until 2100 (without freshwater). For these types of scenarios, previous experiments for paleoclimatic cases help us diagnose the most vulnerable areas. The North Atlantic and the collapse of thermohaline circulation is one key issue, but far field teleconnections with the Asian monsoon will also be explored. We will investigate the timing and amplitude of the climate impacts due to the perturbations, which may be quite different in our 3 scenarios. These abrupt events consequences can be important for the populations and the consideration of rapid changes should improve the reliability of IPCC predictions.

  17. Abrupt onset and prolongation of aragonite undersaturation events in the Southern Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hauri, Claudine; Friedrich, Tobias; Timmermann, Axel

    2016-02-01

    Ocean acidification may lead to seasonal aragonite undersaturation in surface waters of the Southern Ocean as early as 2030 (ref. ). These conditions are harmful to key organisms such as pteropods, which contribute significantly to the pelagic foodweb and carbon export fluxes in this region. Although the severity of ocean acidification impacts is mainly determined by the duration, intensity and spatial extent of aragonite undersaturation events, little is known about the nature of these events, their evolving attributes and the timing of their onset in the Southern Ocean. Using an ensemble of ten Earth system models, we show that starting around 2030, aragonite undersaturation events will spread rapidly, affecting ~30% of Southern Ocean surface waters by 2060 and >70% by 2100, including the Patagonian Shelf. On their onset, the duration of these events will increase abruptly from 1 month to 6 months per year in less than 20 years in >75% of the area affected by end-of-century aragonite undersaturation. This is likely to decrease the ability of organisms to adapt to a quickly evolving environment. The rapid equatorward progression of surface aragonite undersaturation can be explained by the uptake of anthropogenic CO2, whereas climate-driven physical or biological changes will play a minor role.

  18. Arctic Ocean freshwater as a trigger for abrupt climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bradley, Raymond; Condron, Alan; Coletti, Anthony

    2016-04-01

    The cause of the Younger Dryas cooling remains unresolved despite decades of debate. Current arguments focus on either freshwater from Glacial Lake Agassiz drainage through the St Lawrence or the MacKenzie river systems. High resolution ocean modeling suggests that freshwater delivered to the North Atlantic from the Arctic Ocean through Fram Strait would have had more of an impact on Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) than freshwater from the St Lawrence. This has been interpreted as an argument for a MacKenzie River /Lake Agassiz freshwater source. However, it is important to note that although the modeling identifies Fram Strait as the optimum location for delivery of freshwater to disrupt the AMOC, this does not mean the freshwater source came from Lake Agassiz. Another potential source of freshwater is the Arctic Ocean ice cover itself. During the LGM, ice cover was extremely thick - many tens of meters in the Canada Basin (at least), resulting in a hiatus in sediment deposition there. Extreme ice thickness was related to a stagnant circulation, very low temperatures and continuous accumulation of snow on top of a base of sea-ice. This resulted in a large accumulation of freshwater in the Arctic Basin. As sea-level rose and a more modern circulation regime became established in the Arctic, this freshwater was released from the Arctic Ocean through Fram Strait, leading to extensive sea-ice formation in the North Atlantic (Greenland Sea) and a major reduction in the AMOC. Here we present new model results and a review of the paleoceanographic evidence to support this hypothesis. The bottom line is that the Arctic Ocean was likely a major player in causing abrupt climate change in the past, via its influence on the AMOC. Although we focus here on the Younger Dryas, the Arctic Ocean has been repeatedly isolated from the world ocean during glacial periods of the past. When these periods of isolation ended, it is probable that there were significant

  19. An abrupt and prominent climatic reversal at 9.2 ka in the northeastern North America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hou, J.; Huang, Y.; Shuman, B. N.; Oswald, W.; Foster, D. R.

    2008-12-01

    Continental climate during the early Holocene (from 10 to 7 ka) is characterized by multiple abrupt climatic reversals such as the well-known 8.2 ka event that has been observed worldwide and attributed to the terminal collapse of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) in the North American continent. However, many episodes of meltwater releases occurred prior to the final collapse of LIS, their impact on the continental climate is much less understood. We present in this paper decadal-scale hydrogen isotopic records of aquatic and terrestrial plant biomarkers from Blood Pond, Massachusetts during the early Holocene. Our isotopic records infer a cooling of 3~4 degree between 9.3 and 9.1 ka against the millennial scale climate background, mainly induced by changes in precipitation seasonality. In comparison, the 8.2 ka event displays smaller amplitude of temperature cooling of 1~2 degree at our southern New England site. We interpret our observed climatic reversal at ~ 9.2 ka as representing increased proportion of winter precipitation in conjunction with a drier and cooler summer, triggered by slowdown in thermohaline circulation as a result of freshwater release from the proglacial lakes. We attribute the difference in climate response at 8.2 ka and 9.2 ka events to the configuration of LIS, with 9.2 ka LIS having a much stronger blocking effect on the moisture from the Gulf of Mexico during the summer. Our data suggest that the seasonality of the precipitation at the southern New England was highly sensitive to meltwater releases, especially prior to the final collapse of the LIS.

  20. Links between early Holocene ice-sheet decay, sea-level rise and abrupt climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Törnqvist, Torbjörn E.; Hijma, Marc P.

    2012-09-01

    The beginning of the current interglacial period, the Holocene epoch, was a critical part of the transition from glacial to interglacial climate conditions. This period, between about 12,000 and 7,000 years ago, was marked by the continued retreat of the ice sheets that had expanded through polar and temperate regions during the preceding glacial. This meltdown led to a dramatic rise in sea level, punctuated by short-lived jumps associated with catastrophic ice-sheet collapses. Tracking down which ice sheet produced specific sea-level jumps has been challenging, but two events between 8,500 and 8,200 years ago have been linked to the final drainage of glacial Lake Agassiz in north-central North America. The release of the water from this ice-dammed lake into the ocean is recorded by sea-level jumps in the Mississippi and Rhine-Meuse deltas of approximately 0.4 and 2.1 metres, respectively. These sea-level jumps can be related to an abrupt cooling in the Northern Hemisphere known as the 8.2 kyr event, and it has been suggested that the freshwater release from Lake Agassiz into the North Atlantic was sufficient to perturb the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. As sea-level rise on the order of decimetres to metres can now be detected with confidence and linked to climate records, it is becoming apparent that abrupt climate change during the early Holocene associated with perturbations in North Atlantic circulation required sustained freshwater release into the ocean.

  1. Simulating the vegetation response to abrupt climate changes under glacial conditions with the ORCHIDEE/IPSL models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Woillez, M.-N.; Kageyama, M.; Combourieu-Nebout, N.; Krinner, G.

    2012-09-01

    The last glacial period has been punctuated by two types of abrupt climatic events, the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) and Heinrich (HE) events. These events, recorded in Greenland ice and in marine sediments, involved changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and led to major changes in the terrestrial biosphere. Here we use the dynamical global vegetation model ORCHIDEE to simulate the response of vegetation to abrupt changes in the AMOC strength. To do so, we force ORCHIDEE off-line with outputs from the IPSL_CM4 general circulation model, in which we have forced the AMOC to change by adding freshwater fluxes in the North Atlantic. We investigate the impact of a collapse and recovery of the AMOC, at different rates, and focus on Western Europe, where many pollen records are available to compare with. The impact of an AMOC collapse on the European mean temperatures and precipitations simulated by the GCM is relatively small but sufficient to drive an important regression of forests and expansion of grasses in ORCHIDEE, in qualitative agreement with pollen data for an HE event. On the contrary, a run with a rapid shift of the AMOC to an hyperactive state of 30 Sv, mimicking the warming phase of a DO event, does not exhibit a strong impact on the European vegetation compared to the glacial control state. For our model, simulating the impact of an HE event thus appears easier than simulating the abrupt transition towards the interstadial phase of a DO. For both a collapse or a recovery of the AMOC the vegetation starts to respond to climatic changes immediately but reaches equilibrium about 200 yr after the climate equilibrates, suggesting a possible bias in the climatic reconstructions based on pollen records, which assume equilibrium between climate and vegetation. However, our study does not take into account vegetation feedbacks on the atmosphere.

  2. Dansgaard-Oeschger Cycles in the Gulf of Mexico: A Clue to Abrupt Climate Change?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hill, H. W.; Flower, B. P.; Quinn, T. M.

    2003-12-01

    events. The amplitude of the isotopic data and the very negative δ 18O values (-2 ‰ ) point to meltwater input as being the primary control on salinity. The presence of D-O cycles in the Gulf of Mexico has important implications for understanding abrupt climate change on the millennial time scale and for defining the relationship between high and low latitude climate variability, particularly as it relates to meltwater input from ice sheets. Defining the phasing of D-O cycles in the Gulf of Mexico relative to Greenland will make it easier to assess the relative importance of thermohaline circulation and greenhouse gas concentration changes on global climate change.

  3. Sensitivity and rapidity of vegetational response to abrupt climate change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Peteet, D.

    2000-01-01

    Rapid climate change characterizes numerous terrestrial sediment records during and since the last glaciation. Vegetational response is best expressed in terrestrial records near ecotones, where sensitivity to climate change is greatest, and response times are as short as decades.

  4. Abrupt Climate Change: the View from the Past, the Present and the Future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    White, J. W. C.

    2014-12-01

    Climate is changing as humans put more and more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. With CO2 levels today around 400ppm, we are clearly committed to far more climate change, both in the near term, and well beyond our children's future. A key question is how that change will occur. Abrupt climate changes are those that exceed our expectations, preparedness, and ability to adapt. Such changes challenge us economically, physically, and socially. This talk will draw upon results from ice core research over the past twenty years, as well as a new NRC report on abrupt climate change in order to address abrupt change, as seen in the past in ice cores, as seen today in key environmental systems upon which humans depend, and what is may be coming in the future.

  5. Dynamics of climate and ecosystem coupling: abrupt changes and multiple equilibria.

    PubMed Central

    Higgins, Paul A T; Mastrandrea, Michael D; Schneider, Stephen H

    2002-01-01

    Interactions between subunits of the global climate-biosphere system (e.g. atmosphere, ocean, biosphere and cryosphere) often lead to behaviour that is not evident when each subunit is viewed in isolation. This newly evident behaviour is an emergent property of the coupled subsystems. Interactions between thermohaline circulation and climate illustrate one emergent property of coupling ocean and atmospheric circulation. The multiple thermohaline circulation equilibria that result caused abrupt climate changes in the past and may cause abrupt climate changes in the future. Similarly, coupling between the climate system and ecosystem structure and function produces complex behaviour in certain regions. For example, atmosphere-biosphere interactions in the Sahel region of West Africa lead to multiple stable equilibria. Either wet or dry climate equilibria can occur under otherwise identical forcing conditions. The equilibrium reached is dependent on past history (i.e. initial conditions), and relatively small perturbations to either climate or vegetation can cause switching between the two equilibria. Both thermohaline circulation and the climate-vegetation system in the Sahel are prone to abrupt changes that may be irreversible. This complicates the relatively linear view of global changes held in many scientific and policy communities. Emergent properties of coupled socio-natural systems add yet another layer of complexity to the policy debate. As a result, the social and economic consequences of possible global changes are likely to be underestimated in most conventional analyses because these nonlinear, abrupt and irreversible responses are insufficiently considered. PMID:12079526

  6. Dynamics of climate and ecosystem coupling: abrupt changes and multiple equilibria.

    PubMed

    Higgins, Paul A T; Mastrandrea, Michael D; Schneider, Stephen H

    2002-05-29

    Interactions between subunits of the global climate-biosphere system (e.g. atmosphere, ocean, biosphere and cryosphere) often lead to behaviour that is not evident when each subunit is viewed in isolation. This newly evident behaviour is an emergent property of the coupled subsystems. Interactions between thermohaline circulation and climate illustrate one emergent property of coupling ocean and atmospheric circulation. The multiple thermohaline circulation equilibria that result caused abrupt climate changes in the past and may cause abrupt climate changes in the future. Similarly, coupling between the climate system and ecosystem structure and function produces complex behaviour in certain regions. For example, atmosphere-biosphere interactions in the Sahel region of West Africa lead to multiple stable equilibria. Either wet or dry climate equilibria can occur under otherwise identical forcing conditions. The equilibrium reached is dependent on past history (i.e. initial conditions), and relatively small perturbations to either climate or vegetation can cause switching between the two equilibria. Both thermohaline circulation and the climate-vegetation system in the Sahel are prone to abrupt changes that may be irreversible. This complicates the relatively linear view of global changes held in many scientific and policy communities. Emergent properties of coupled socio-natural systems add yet another layer of complexity to the policy debate. As a result, the social and economic consequences of possible global changes are likely to be underestimated in most conventional analyses because these nonlinear, abrupt and irreversible responses are insufficiently considered. PMID:12079526

  7. North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and Abrupt Climate Change through the Last Glaciation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henry, G., III; McManus, J. F.; Curry, W. B.; Keigwin, L. D.; Giosan, L.

    2014-12-01

    The climate of the glacial North Atlantic was punctuated by catastrophic discharges of icebergs (Heinrich events), as well as by more mysterious, abrupt warming events associated with Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillations. These events are suspected to be related to changes in AMOC and its influence on heat transport and the regional and global heat budget. Investigation of these rapid oscillations is often limited by the resolution of sediment records. High accumulation rates at our study site (33.69°N, 57.58°W, 4583m water depth) on the Bermuda Rise allow improved resolution by one to two orders of magnitude. Cores CDH19 (38.81m) and CDH13 (36.70m), were recovered during KNR191, the initial deployment of the RV Knorr's long coring system developed at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution with support from the NSF. These cores contain high quality sediment sections that allow high resolution studies extending through the last glacial cycle at a key location for monitoring past oceanographic and climatic variability. Here we present detailed multi-proxy data from Bermuda Rise sediments reflecting deep ocean chemistry and dynamics of the last glaciation, and combine them with published data to produce a continuous, high resolution record spanning the last 70,000 years. CaCO3 burial fluxes, foraminifera stable isotopes, and sedimentary uranium-series disequilibria (including seawater-derived 231Pa /230Th), display coherent, complementary variability throughout the last glaciation. Glacial values in each proxy are consistent with reduced ventilation and overturning compared to the Holocene, with intervals that indicate substantial millennial reductions in each, and others when they briefly approach Holocene levels. In multiple instances, particularly spanning interstadials eight through twelve (IS8-IS12) our results are consistent with an abrupt, subcentennial acceleration in the export of excess 231Pa from the North Atlantic during stadial-interstadial transitions

  8. Reducing The Risk Of Abrupt Climate Change: Emission Corridors Preserving The Thermohaline Circulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zickfeld, K.

    Paleo-reconstructions have shown that large and abrupt climate changes have occurred throughout the last ice-age cycles. This evidence, supplemented by insights into the complex and nonlinear nature of the climate system, gives raise to the concern that anthropogenic forcing may trigger such events in the future. A prominent example for such a potential climatic shift is the collapse of the North Atlantic thermohaline circu- lation (THC), which would cause a major cooling of the northern North Atlantic and north-western Europe and considerable regional sea level rise, with possibly severe consequences on, e.g., fisheries, agriculture and ecosystems. In this paper we present emission corridors for the 21st century preserving the THC. Emission corridors embrace the range of future emissions beyond which either the THC collapses or the mitigation burden becomes intolerable. They are calculated along the conceptual and methodological lines of the tolerable windows approach. We investigate the sensitivity of the emission corridors to the main uncertain parame- ters (climate and North Atlantic hydrological sensitivities as well as emissions of non CO_2 greenhouse gases). Results show a high dependence of the size of the emis- sion corridors on hydrological and climate sensitivities. For the best-guess values of both parameters we find that the emission corridors are wider than the range spanned by the SRES emissions scenarios. Thus, no immediate mitigation seems necessary in order to preserve the THC. For high but still realistic values of the sensitivities, however, even the low SRES emissions scenarios transgress the corridor boundaries. These findings imply that under 'business as usual' a non-negligible risk of either a THC collapse or an intolerable mitigation burden exists.

  9. Can Abrupt Seasonal Transitions be Predicted in Climate Forecasts?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kirtman, B. P.

    2014-12-01

    There is on ongoing debate in the seasonal prediction community as to whether high frequency weather statistics in climate forecasts have any inherent predictability, and ultimately prediction skill. The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) seasonal-to-interannual prediction experiment is the ideal test-bed to evaluate the predictability and prediction of weather within climate. NMME is multi-institutional multi-agency system to improve operational monthly and seasonal forecasts based on the prediction systems developed at the major US climate modeling centers (NOAA/EMC, NOAA/GFDL, NCAR, NASA) and Canada. Although currently in an experimental stage, the NMME prediction system has been providing routine real-time monthly and seasonal forecasts since August 2011 that adhere to the CPC operational schedule. In addition to the monthly data, daily output from some of the retrospective forecasts are now being archived. Based on the NMME daily output this talk evaluates the predictability and prediction of two aspects of weather within climate: (i) monsoon onset in India and in South West North America and (ii) onset of spring severe weather in the mid-west US. The analysis estimates predictability by examining how well the individual models "predict" themselves and how well they "predict" other models. Prediction quality is assessed based on comparisons with observational estimates.

  10. Ice-core evidence of abrupt climate changes

    PubMed Central

    Alley, Richard B.

    2000-01-01

    Ice-core records show that climate changes in the past have been large, rapid, and synchronous over broad areas extending into low latitudes, with less variability over historical times. These ice-core records come from high mountain glaciers and the polar regions, including small ice caps and the large ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica. PMID:10677460

  11. Impact of Climate and Fires on Abrupt Permafrost Thaw in Alaskan Tundra

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chipman, M. L.; Reents, C.; Greenberg, J. A.; Hu, F.

    2015-12-01

    Thermo-erosion from abrupt permafrost thaw is a key pulse disturbance in the Arctic that may impact the global carbon cycle. Abrupt thaw can occur when the permafrost active layer expands in response to climate warming and/or increased wildfire activity. Understanding these drivers of thermo-erosion is necessary to anticipate feedbacks in the Arctic, where summer temperature and fire frequency are predicted to increase. We examine modern and late-Holocene thermo-erosion in high-fire (Noatak) and low-fire (North Slope) tundra ecoregions of Alaska using a combination of remote-sensing and paleo-records. Lakes with active thaw features were identified through Landsat-7 image classification and time-series analysis based on observed 0.52-0.60 μm reflectance peaks following slump formation. We identified 1067 and 1705 lakes with active features between CE 2000-2012 in the Noatak and North Slope ecoregions, respectively. The density of features was higher in the highly flammable Noatak (0.04 versus 0.01 features km-2, respectively), suggesting that warmer climate and/or fires likely promote high thermo-erosional activity at present. To assess modern signals of thermo-erosion and identify past events, we analyzed soil profiles and lake-sediment cores from both ecoregions using X-ray fluorescence. The ratios of Ca:K and Ca:Sr increased with depth in permafrost soils, were higher in soils from younger versus older slump surfaces, and were significantly correlated with the ratio of carbonate to feldspar and clay minerals in lake sediments (r=0.96 and 0.93, P<0.0001, n=15). We interpret past increases in Ca:K, Ca:Sr, and δ13C as enhanced weathering of carbonate-rich permafrost soils associated with thermo-erosion. At the North Slope site, we identified ten episodes of thermoerosion over the past 6000 years and found strong correspondence to summer temperature trends. Events were more frequent at the Noatak site, where 15 thermo-erosional episodes and 26 fires occurred over

  12. The applicability of research on moving cut data-approximate entropy on abrupt climate change detection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jin, Hongmei; He, Wenping; Liu, Qunqun; Wang, Jinsong; Feng, Guolin

    2016-04-01

    In this study, the performance of moving cut data-approximate entropy (MC-ApEn) to detect abrupt dynamic changes was investigated. Numerical tests in a time series model indicate that the MC-ApEn method is suitable for the detection of abrupt dynamic changes for three types of meteorological data: daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, and daily precipitation. Additionally, the MC-ApEn method was used to detect abrupt climate changes in daily precipitation data from Northwest China and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index. The results show an abrupt dynamic change in precipitation in 1980 and in the PDO index in 1976. The times indicated for the abrupt changes are identical to those from previous results. Application of the analysis to observational data further confirmed the performance of the MC-ApEn method. Moreover, MC-ApEn outperformed the moving t test (MTT) and the moving detrended fluctuation analysis (MDFA) methods for the detection of abrupt dynamic changes in a simulated 1000-point daily precipitation dataset.

  13. Deglacial abrupt climate change in the Atlantic Warm Pool: A Gulf of Mexico perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, Carlie; Flower, Benjamin P.; Hastings, David W.; Guilderson, Thomas P.; Quinn, Kelly A.; Goddard, Ethan A.

    2010-12-01

    During the last deglaciation, Greenland ice core and North Atlantic sediment records exhibit multiple abrupt climate events including the Younger Dryas cold episode (12.9-11.7 ka). However, evidence for the presence of the Younger Dryas in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) and the relationship between GOM sea surface temperature (SST) and high-latitude climate change is less clear. We present new Mg/Ca-SST records from two varieties of the planktonic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber (white and pink) to assess northern GOM SST history from approximately 18.4-10.8 ka. Thirty-five accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) 14C dates from Orca Basin core MD02-2550 provide excellent age control and document high sedimentation rates (˜40 cm/kyr). G. ruber (white and pink) Mg/Ca-SST data exhibit increases (˜4.6 ± 0.6°C and ˜2.2 ± 0.5°C, respectively) from at least 17.8-16.6 ka, with nearly decadal resolution that are early relative to the onset of the Bolling-Allerod interstadial. Moreover, G. ruber (white) SST decreases at 16.0-14.7 ka (˜1.0 ± 0.5°C) and 12.8-11.6 ka (˜2.4 ± 0.6°C) correlate to the Oldest and Younger Dryas in Greenland and Cariaco Basin. The G. ruber (pink) SST record, which reflects differences in seasonality and/or depth habitat, is often not in phase with G. ruber (white) and closely resembles Antarctic air temperature records. Overall, it appears that Orca Basin SST records follow Antarctic air temperature early in the deglacial sequence and exhibit enhanced seasonality during Greenland stadials.

  14. Abrupt Climate Change Caused by Global Fires from a Large Meteor Impact

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bardeen, C.; Toon, O. B.; Garcia, R. R.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Wolf, E. T.

    2015-12-01

    Global or near-global fires like those that are thought to have occurred after the Chicxulub asteroid impact are associated with abrupt climate change and the K-Pg mass extinction event. Using the Community Earth System Model (CESM), a three-dimensional coupled climate model with interactive chemistry, we have simulated the climate response to global fires assuming a burden of 70,000 Tg, as estimated from the K-Pg layer sediments by Wolbach et al. (1988). Soot aerosols are lofted by solar heating and remain in the atmosphere for about 6 years, warming the stratosphere by more than 240 K and suppressing completely solar radiation at the surface for 2 years. Global average land surface temperatures cool by -28 K after 3 years and ocean temperatures by -11 K after 4 years. Precipitation is reduced by 80 % for 5 years, and the ozone column is reduced by 80 % for 4 years. The tropical tropopause cold point disappears for a few years, leading to water vapor mixing ratios of > 1000 ppmv in the stratosphere. There is a rapid recovery around year 6, when the soot is removed by wet deposition as stratospheric water condenses and precipitates, but this is followed by a peak in the UV Index in the tropics of over 40 before stratospheric ozone recovers. Ocean temperature cools by more than -2 K to a depth of 300 m, and sea ice develops in the Black Sea, Caspian Sea, and Baltic Sea. Global fires, two years of darkness, extreme surface cooling, significant ocean cooling, increases in sea ice extent and a large short-term increase in UV Index would have been catastrophic for many life forms. This work is the first step in an effort to simulate the climatic effects of all of the aerosols and gases that may have been generated by the Chicxulub impact in a model that has been configured for late-Cretaceous conditions to help assess the role of the Chicxulub impact in the K-Pg extinction.

  15. The role of stochastic noise in the abrupt climatic transitions of the pleistocene

    SciTech Connect

    Matteucci, G.

    1991-01-01

    Analyses of marine [delta][sup 18]O records suggest that the variations of the Earth's orbital parameters have induced and provided the timing of the Pleistocene climatic oscillations. This dissertation analyses some statistical properties of the Pleistocene climate by estimating the Probability Density Function (PDF) of the [delta][sup 18]O record. The results allow to define statistically what were the [open quotes]typical conditions[close quotes] (in a probabilistic sense) of the Quaternary, to identify the modes of the PDF as the mean glacial and interglacial climatic states, and to clarify the meaning and the abruptness of the climatic transitions. A zero-dimensional Energy Balance Model is developed. The nonlinearity of the ice albedo-temperature feedback leads to multiple steady-state equilibria. The role of stochastic perturbations and their interaction with the orbital forcing in producing the periodic and abrupt climatic transitions of the late Pleistocene are illustrated. A stochastic sensitivity analysis is used to clarify the results, especially the selective amplification of the orbitally-induced 100 kyr cycle, and the predictability of the system on the time scales of the orbital cycles. From the analysis of GCM simulations and observational zonally- averaged data a one-dimensional EBM is then developed. The strong nonlinearity of this model and the occurrence of multiple equilibria is caused by the presence of the Thin Ice Cap Instability. A discussion of the features that stochastic perturbations would introduce, follows. Finally a GCM sensitivity study to atmospheric CO[sub 2] shows how the effects of varying CO[sub 2] concentrations can be included in simple EBMs. The role that stochastic perturbations, orbital forcing, and the known past concentrations of atmospheric CO[sub 2] have played in producing the abrupt climatic transitions of the late Pleistocene is discussed.

  16. Modeling past abrupt climate changes: driven oscillators and synchronization phenomena in Paleoclimate theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marchionne, Arianna

    2014-05-01

    According to Milankovitch theory of ice ages, summer insolation at high northern latitudes drives the glacial cycles, i.e. the growth and reduction of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets, and there is evidence that astronomical forcing controls indeed the timing of Pleistocene glacial-interglacial cycles. However, the δ18Otime series (the δ18O is a proxy for global ice volume) available for the last few million years reveal a non-linear response of the climate to the external forcing: transitions from the glacial to the interglacial states occur more rapidly than the transitions from the interglacials to the glacials, resulting in the so-called saw-tooth shape of the signal. These terminations were very abrupt compared to the smooth changes in insolation. Moreover, insolation alone cannot explain the Mid-Pleistocene transition. During this event, occurred about one million years ago, the dominant 41 kyr glacial cycles, were replaced by longer saw-tooth shaped cycles with a time scale around 100 kyr. The asymmetry in the oscillations indicates a non-linear response to the orbital forcing, expressed through a bifurcation, or tipping point. As an introduction to the problem, we studied simple driven oscillators that can exhibit asymmetric oscillations between the glacial and interglacial states under the effect of the astronomical forcing, such as the Van der Pool and the Duffing oscillators. In order to understand how these simple low-dimensional models enter theories of ice ages and rapid events, we studied synchronization phenomena between simple driven oscillators and astronomical forcing, focusing on distinguishing between the so-called resonance scenario and the so-called phase locking scenario. We next examined the possible mechanisms for the Mid-Pleistocene transition. Here we show that the transition could be explained as a result of frequency-locking to the external forcing. This change can be interpreted as a result of an internal change in climate response

  17. North Atlantic ocean circulation and abrupt climate change during the last glaciation.

    PubMed

    Henry, L G; McManus, J F; Curry, W B; Roberts, N L; Piotrowski, A M; Keigwin, L D

    2016-07-29

    The most recent ice age was characterized by rapid and hemispherically asynchronous climate oscillations, whose origin remains unresolved. Variations in oceanic meridional heat transport may contribute to these repeated climate changes, which were most pronounced during marine isotope stage 3, the glacial interval 25 thousand to 60 thousand years ago. We examined climate and ocean circulation proxies throughout this interval at high resolution in a deep North Atlantic sediment core, combining the kinematic tracer protactinium/thorium (Pa/Th) with the deep water-mass tracer, epibenthic δ(13)C. These indicators suggest reduced Atlantic overturning circulation during every cool northern stadial, with the greatest reductions during episodic Hudson Strait iceberg discharges, while sharp northern warming followed reinvigorated overturning. These results provide direct evidence for the ocean's persistent, central role in abrupt glacial climate change. PMID:27365315

  18. Transition process of abrupt climate change based on global sea surface temperature over the past century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yan, Pengcheng; Hou, Wei; Feng, Guolin

    2016-05-01

    A new detection method has been proposed to study the transition process of abrupt climate change. With this method, the climate system transiting from one stable state to another can be verified clearly. By applying this method to the global sea surface temperature over the past century, several climate changes and their processes are detected, including the start state (moment), persist time, and end state (moment). According to the spatial distribution, the locations of climate changes mainly have occurred in the Indian Ocean and western Pacific before the middle twentieth century, in the 1970s in the equatorial middle-eastern Pacific, and in the middle and southern Pacific since the end of the twentieth century. In addition, the quantitative relationship between the transition process parameters is verified in theory and practice: (1) the relationship between the rate and stability parameters is linear, and (2) the relationship between the rate and change amplitude parameters is quadratic.

  19. North Atlantic ocean circulation and abrupt climate change during the last glaciation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henry, L. G.; McManus, J. F.; Curry, W. B.; Roberts, N. L.; Piotrowski, A. M.; Keigwin, L. D.

    2016-07-01

    The most recent ice age was characterized by rapid and hemispherically asynchronous climate oscillations, whose origin remains unresolved. Variations in oceanic meridional heat transport may contribute to these repeated climate changes, which were most pronounced during marine isotope stage 3, the glacial interval 25 thousand to 60 thousand years ago. We examined climate and ocean circulation proxies throughout this interval at high resolution in a deep North Atlantic sediment core, combining the kinematic tracer protactinium/thorium (Pa/Th) with the deep water-mass tracer, epibenthic δ13C. These indicators suggest reduced Atlantic overturning circulation during every cool northern stadial, with the greatest reductions during episodic Hudson Strait iceberg discharges, while sharp northern warming followed reinvigorated overturning. These results provide direct evidence for the ocean’s persistent, central role in abrupt glacial climate change.

  20. Climatic and Societal Causes for Abrupt Environmental Change in the Mediterranean During the Common Era

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mensing, S. A.; Tunno, I.; Sagnotti, L.; Florindo, F.; Noble, P. J.; Archer, C.; Zimmerman, S. R. H.; Pavón-Carrasco, F. J.; Cifnani, G.; Passigli, S.; Piovesan, G.

    2015-12-01

    We compare climatic and societal causes for abrupt environmental change for the last 2000 years in the Rieti Basin, central Italy using high-resolution sedimentary paleoenvironmental proxies, historical documents, and annually resolved independent climate reconstructions of temperature and precipitation. Pollen zones, identified from temporally constrained cluster analysis, coincide with historic periods developed from well-established ceramic sequences corresponding to the Roman Imperial through Late Antique (1 to 600 CE) Early Medieval (600 to 875 CE), Medieval through Late Medieval (875 to 1400 CE), Renaissance and Modern (1400 to 1725 CE), and Contemporary periods (1725 CE to present). Non-metric dimensional scaling (NMDS) ordination showed that each temporal period occupied a unique ecologic space suggesting that a new landscape was created during each successive historic period. During Roman time, between 1 and 500 CE, a modest decline in forest coincides with a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and drier climate; however mesophyllous forest is preserved. Steep decline in forest cover between 850 and 950 CE coincides with positive temperature anomalies in Europe and a positive NAO. Although this would seem to suggest climate as a cause, temperature and precipitation changes are modest and the magnitude and rapidity of the vegetation change suggests climate played a small role. Archaeological evidence from across Europe identifies socioeconomic factors that produced forest clearing. In contrast, cooler temperatures and a negative NAO (increased ppt) appears to have been a catalyst for land abandonment and forest recovery in the 13th to 14th centuries. The NAO produces opposite effects on societies in the eastern and western Mediterranean with the negative phase in 1400 CE leading to cool wet climate and land abandonment in central Italy but an abrupt shift to drier conditions and change from sedentary village life to nomadism in Syria.

  1. Response of atmospheric CO2 to the abrupt cooling event 8200 years ago

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahn, Jinho; Brook, Edward J.; Buizert, Christo

    2014-01-01

    Atmospheric CO2 records for the centennial scale cooling event 8200 years ago (8.2 ka event) may help us understand climate-carbon cycle feedbacks under interglacial conditions, which are important for understanding future climate, but existing records do not provide enough detail. Here we present a new CO2 record from the Siple Dome ice core, Antarctica, that covers 7.4-9.0 ka with 8 to 16 year resolution. We observe a small, about 1-2 ppm, increase of atmospheric CO2 during the 8.2 ka event. The increase is not significant when compared to other centennial variations in the Holocene that are not linked to large temperature changes. Our results do not agree with leaf stomata records that suggest a CO2 decrease of up to ~25 ppm and imply that the sensitivity of atmospheric CO2 to the primarily Northern Hemisphere cooling of the 8.2 ka event was limited.

  2. Laurentide Ice Sheet meltwater and abrupt climate change during the last glaciation

    SciTech Connect

    Hill, H W; Flower, B P; Quinn, T M; Hollander, D J; Guilderson, T P

    2005-10-02

    A leading hypothesis to explain abrupt climate change during the last glacial cycle calls on fluctuations in the margin of the North American Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS), which may have routed freshwater between the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) and North Atlantic, affecting North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) variability and regional climate. Paired measurements of {delta}O and Mg/Ca of foraminiferal calcite from GOM sediments reveal five episodes of LIS meltwater input from 28-45 thousand years ago (ka) that do not match the millennial-scale Dansgaard-Oeschger (D/O) warmings recorded in Greenland ice. We suggest that summer melting of the LIS may occur during Antarctic warming and likely contributed to sea-level variability during Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3).

  3. Abrupt climate variability in the North Atlantic region: Did the icebergs do it?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barker, S.; Chen, J.; Gong, X.; Jonkers, L.; Knorr, G.; Thornalley, D. J.

    2014-12-01

    We present high resolution records of temperature and ice rafted debris over the last ~440Kyr from a sediment core retrieved from the NE Atlantic. Our records reveal that episodes of ice rafting typically occurred after abrupt cooling at the site. Because the site is sensitive to the earliest phases of ice rafting as recorded by other sites across the wider Atlantic, this suggests that icebergs were not the trigger for North Atlantic cold events. Moreover we find a different relationship between cooling and the arrival of rafted ice at a site ~750km to the SE of ours. We suggest that asynchronous cooling between these locations can be explained by the more gradual southward migration of the North Atlantic polar front. We describe a mechanism that can explain the occurrence of abrupt stadial events over Greenland as a non-linear response as regional cooling continues beyond the threshold necessary for sustaining ocean circulation in its 'warm' mode with active convection north of Iceland. Thus while the freshwater derived from melting icebergs may provide a positive feedback for enhancing and prolonging stadial conditions, it is probably not the trigger for northern stadial events.

  4. Abrupt climate-triggered lake ecosystem changes recorded in late glacial lake sediments in northern Poland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Slowinski, M. M.; Zawiska, I.; Ott, F.; Noryskiewicz, A. M.; Apolinarska, K.; Lutynska, M.; Michczynska, D. J.; Brauer, A.; Wulf, S.; Skubala, P.; Blaszkiewicz, M.

    2013-12-01

    The aim of this study was to better understand how local lake ecosystems responded to abrupt climate changes through applying multi-proxy sediment analyses. Therefore, we carried out a detailed and high-resolution case study on the late glacial sediment from the Trzechowskie palaeolake located in the eastern part of the Pomeranian Lakeland, northern Poland. We reconstructed climate induced environmental changes in the paleolake and its catchment using biotic proxies (macrofossils, pollen, cladocera, diatoms, oribatidae mite) and classical geochemical proxies (δ18O, δ13C, loss-on-ignition, CaCO3 content) in combination with high-resolution μ-XRF element core scanning. The core chronology has been established by means of biostratigraphy, AMS 14C-dating on plant macro remains, varve counting in laminated intervals and tephrochronology. The latter was possible by the discovery of the late Allerød Laacher See Tephra for the first time at such eastern location. Biogenic accumulation in the lake started rather late during the lateglacial interstadial at 13903×170 cal yrs BP. The rapid and pronounced cooling at the beginning of the Younger Dryas had a major impact on the lake and its catchment as clearly reflected by both, biotic and geochemical proxies. The depositional environment of the lake abruptly changed from a varved to massive gytjia. The pronounced warming at the demise of Younger Dryas cooling is well-reflected in all environmental indicators but with conspicuous leads and lags reflecting complex responses of lake ecosystems to climate warming. The research was supported by the National Science Centre Poland - NN306085037. This study is a contribution to the Virtual Institute ICLEA (Integrated Climate and Landscape Evolution Analysis) funded by the Helmholtz Association.

  5. Abrupt Climate Change and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: sensitivity and non-linear response to Arctic/sub-Arctic freshwater pulses. Collaborative research. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Hill, Christopher

    2015-06-15

    This project investigated possible mechanisms by which melt-water pulses can induce abrupt change in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) magnitude. AMOC magnitude is an important ingredient in present day climate. Previous studies have hypothesized abrupt reduction in AMOC magnitude in response to influxes of glacial melt water into the North Atlantic. Notable fresh-water influxes are associated with the terminus of the last ice age. During this period large volumes of melt water accumulated behind retreating ice sheets and subsequently drained rapidly when the ice weakened sufficiently. Rapid draining of glacial lakes into the North Atlantic is a possible origin of a number of paleo-record abrupt climate shifts. These include the Younger-Dryas cooling event and the 8,200 year cooling event. The studies undertaken focused on whether the mechanistic sequence by which glacial melt-water impacts AMOC, which then impacts Northern Hemisphere global mean surface temperature, is dynamically plausible. The work has implications for better understanding past climate stability. The work also has relevance for today’s environment, in which high-latitude ice melting in Greenland appears to be driving fresh water outflows at an accelerating pace.

  6. The effect of abrupt climate changes and climate background conditions in Southern Europe during the last glacial

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knorr, Gregor; Martin-Puertas, Celia; Brauer, Achim; Lohmann, Gerrit

    2015-04-01

    The last glacial period is characterized by abrupt and large temperature shifts in Greenland and the North Atlantic realm. Pollen and sediment data from Lago Grande di Monticchio (MON) have demonstrated a clear imprint of these fluctuations operating at millennial time-scales. Interestingly, basic mean environmental condition changes with respect to temperature and precipitation occurred during MIS4, separating warm and dry conditions during MIS5 from relatively cold and humid conditions within MIS3. This general climate background shift is superposed by distinct millennial-scale variability at MON. Using a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model applying boundary conditions at 32 ka BP and pre-industrial conditions as a surrogate for MIS3 and MIS5, we have simulated and analysed characteristic changes in Southern Europe during the last glacial. We find that changes in the mean state at MON are mainly related to a partial shift of the North Atlantic deep water (NADW) convection sites from the Nordic Seas to South of Iceland, the presence of the Fennoscandian ice sheet and lower greenhouse gas concentrations. These background characteristics provide the basis for enhanced zonal moisture transport from the eastern North Atlantic to Middle and Southern Europe. Furthermore, simulations of abrupt climate change scenarios show that a deactivation of the convection sites South of Iceland during MIS3 leads to cooler and dryer conditions at MON. Such temperature and precipitation changes are thought to provide a counter-acting effect on woody vegetation and associated pollen signals at MON. This is in contrast to the impact of abrupt climate perturbation scenarios during MIS5, where no significant precipitation changes are detected. Hence, the simulated changes and underlying mechanisms are largely consistent with the recorded proxy evidence with respect to both, mean state and millennial-scale changes.

  7. Diatoms as Proxies for Abrupt Events in the Hudson River Estuary

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Skorski, W.; Abbott, D. H.; Recasens, C.; Breger, D. L.

    2014-12-01

    The Hudson River estuary has been subject to many abrupt events throughout its history including hurricanes, droughts and pluvials. Hurricanes in particular are rare, discrete events that if fingerprinted can be used to develop better age models for Hudson River sediments. Proxies use observed physical characteristics or biological assemblages (e.g. diatom and foraminiferal assemblages) as tools to reconstruct past conditions prior to the modern instrumental record. Using a sediment core taken from the Hudson River (CDO2-29A), in New York City, drought and pluvial layers were selected based on Cs-137 dating while hurricane layers were determined from occurrences of tropical to subtropical foraminifera. Contrary to previous studies (Weaver, 1970, Weiss et al, 1978), more than sixty different diatom species have been identified using a scanning electron microscope (SEM). Cosmopolitan, hurricane and drought assemblages have begun to be identified after observing multiple layers (Table 1). Tropical foraminifera dominated by Globigerinoides ruber pink were also found in a hurricane layer that we infer was deposited during Hurricane Belle in 1976. More diatom abundance analyses and cataloged SEM pictures will provide further insight into these proxies. Table 1 Diatom Genera and Species Environment Clarification Cyclotella caspia Planktonic, marine-brackish Cosmopolitan Karayevia clevei Freshwater Cosmopolitan Melosira sp Planktonic, marine Cosmopolitan Thalassiosira sp Marine, brackish Cosmopolitan Staurosirella leptostauron Benthic, freshwater Cosmopolitan Actinoptychus senarius Planktonic or benthic, freshwater to brackish Hurricane and pluvial layers Amphora aff. sp Benthic, marine or freshwater Hurricane layers only Nitzschia sp Benthic, marine or freshwater Hurricane layers only Gomphonema sp Freshwater Hurricane layers only Surirella sp Marine-brackish Drought layer only Triceratium sp Marine Drought layer only Other Genera and species Environment Clarification

  8. Impact of abrupt deglacial climate change on tropical Atlantic subsurface temperatures

    PubMed Central

    Schmidt, Matthew W.; Chang, Ping; Hertzberg, Jennifer E.; Them, Theodore R.; Ji, Link; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.

    2012-01-01

    Both instrumental data analyses and coupled ocean-atmosphere models indicate that Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability is tightly linked to abrupt tropical North Atlantic (TNA) climate change through both atmospheric and oceanic processes. Although a slowdown of AMOC results in an atmospheric-induced surface cooling in the entire TNA, the subsurface experiences an even larger warming because of rapid reorganizations of ocean circulation patterns at intermediate water depths. Here, we reconstruct high-resolution temperature records using oxygen isotope values and Mg/Ca ratios in both surface- and subthermocline-dwelling planktonic foraminifera from a sediment core located in the TNA over the last 22 ky. Our results show significant changes in the vertical thermal gradient of the upper water column, with the warmest subsurface temperatures of the last deglacial transition corresponding to the onset of the Younger Dryas. Furthermore, we present new analyses of a climate model simulation forced with freshwater discharge into the North Atlantic under Last Glacial Maximum forcings and boundary conditions that reveal a maximum subsurface warming in the vicinity of the core site and a vertical thermal gradient change at the onset of AMOC weakening, consistent with the reconstructed record. Together, our proxy reconstructions and modeling results provide convincing evidence for a subsurface oceanic teleconnection linking high-latitude North Atlantic climate to the tropical Atlantic during periods of reduced AMOC across the last deglacial transition. PMID:22908256

  9. Theoretical basis for predicting climate-induced abrupt shifts in the oceans

    PubMed Central

    Beaugrand, Gregory

    2015-01-01

    Among the responses of marine species and their ecosystems to climate change, abrupt community shifts (ACSs), also called regime shifts, have often been observed. However, despite their effects for ecosystem functioning and both provisioning and regulating services, our understanding of the underlying mechanisms involved remains elusive. This paper proposes a theory showing that some ACSs originate from the interaction between climate-induced environmental changes and the species ecological niche. The theory predicts that a substantial stepwise shift in the thermal regime of a marine ecosystem leads indubitably to an ACS and explains why some species do not change during the phenomenon. It also explicates why the timing of ACSs may differ or why some studies may detect or not detect a shift in the same ecosystem, independently of the statistical method of detection and simply because they focus on different species or taxonomic groups. The present theory offers a way to predict future climate-induced community shifts and their potential associated trophic cascades and amplifications.

  10. Impact of abrupt deglacial climate change on tropical Atlantic subsurface temperatures.

    PubMed

    Schmidt, Matthew W; Chang, Ping; Hertzberg, Jennifer E; Them, Theodore R; Ji, Link; J, Link; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L

    2012-09-01

    Both instrumental data analyses and coupled ocean-atmosphere models indicate that Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability is tightly linked to abrupt tropical North Atlantic (TNA) climate change through both atmospheric and oceanic processes. Although a slowdown of AMOC results in an atmospheric-induced surface cooling in the entire TNA, the subsurface experiences an even larger warming because of rapid reorganizations of ocean circulation patterns at intermediate water depths. Here, we reconstruct high-resolution temperature records using oxygen isotope values and Mg/Ca ratios in both surface- and subthermocline-dwelling planktonic foraminifera from a sediment core located in the TNA over the last 22 ky. Our results show significant changes in the vertical thermal gradient of the upper water column, with the warmest subsurface temperatures of the last deglacial transition corresponding to the onset of the Younger Dryas. Furthermore, we present new analyses of a climate model simulation forced with freshwater discharge into the North Atlantic under Last Glacial Maximum forcings and boundary conditions that reveal a maximum subsurface warming in the vicinity of the core site and a vertical thermal gradient change at the onset of AMOC weakening, consistent with the reconstructed record. Together, our proxy reconstructions and modeling results provide convincing evidence for a subsurface oceanic teleconnection linking high-latitude North Atlantic climate to the tropical Atlantic during periods of reduced AMOC across the last deglacial transition. PMID:22908256

  11. A comparison of two methods for detecting abrupt changes in the variance of climatic time series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodionov, Sergei N.

    2016-06-01

    Two methods for detecting abrupt shifts in the variance - Integrated Cumulative Sum of Squares (ICSS) and Sequential Regime Shift Detector (SRSD) - have been compared on both synthetic and observed time series. In Monte Carlo experiments, SRSD outperformed ICSS in the overwhelming majority of the modeled scenarios with different sequences of variance regimes. The SRSD advantage was particularly apparent in the case of outliers in the series. On the other hand, SRSD has more parameters to adjust than ICSS, which requires more experience from the user in order to select those parameters properly. Therefore, ICSS can serve as a good starting point of a regime shift analysis. When tested on climatic time series, in most cases both methods detected the same change points in the longer series (252-787 monthly values). The only exception was the Arctic Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) series, when ICSS found one extra change point that appeared to be spurious. As for the shorter time series (66-136 yearly values), ICSS failed to detect any change points even when the variance doubled or tripled from one regime to another. For these time series, SRSD is recommended. Interestingly, all the climatic time series tested, from the Arctic to the tropics, had one thing in common: the last shift detected in each of these series was toward a high-variance regime. This is consistent with other findings of increased climate variability in recent decades.

  12. A ``triple sea-ice state'' mechanism for the abrupt warming and synchronous ice sheet collapses during Heinrich events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaspi, Yohai; Sayag, Roiy; Tziperman, Eli

    2004-09-01

    Abrupt, switch-like, changes in sea ice cover are proposed as a mechanism for the large-amplitude abrupt warming that seemed to have occurred after each Heinrich event. Sea ice changes are also used to explain the colder-than-ambient glacial conditions around the time of the glacier discharge. The abrupt warming events occur in this mechanism, owing to rapid sea ice melting which warmed the atmosphere via the strong sea ice albedo and insulating feedbacks. Such abrupt sea ice changes can also account for the warming observed during Dansgaard-Oeschger events. The sea ice changes are caused by a weak (order of 5 Sv) response of the thermohaline circulation (THC) to glacier discharges. The main point of this work is therefore that sea ice may be thought of as a very effective amplifier of a weak THC variability, explaining the abrupt temperature changes over Greenland. Synchronous ice sheet collapses from different ice sheets around the North Atlantic, indicated by some proxy records, are shown to be possible via the weak coupling between the different ice sheets by the atmospheric temperature changes caused by the sea ice changes. This weak coupling can lead to a "nonlinear phase locking" of the different ice sheets which therefore discharge synchronously. It is shown that the phase locking may also lead to "precursor" glacier discharge events from smaller ice sheets before the Laurentide Ice Sheet discharges. The precursor events in this mechanism are the result rather than the cause of the major glacier discharges from the Laurentide Ice Sheet.

  13. Climate Networks and Extreme Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kurths, J.

    2014-12-01

    We analyse some climate dynamics from a complex network approach. This leads to an inverse problem: Is there a backbone-like structure underlying the climate system? For this we propose a method to reconstruct and analyze a complex network from data generated by a spatio-temporal dynamical system. This approach enables us to uncover relations to global circulation patterns in oceans and atmosphere. The global scale view on climate networks offers promising new perspectives for detecting dynamical structures based on nonlinear physical processes in the climate system. Moreover, we evaluate different regional climate models from this aspect. This concept is also applied to Monsoon data in order to characterize the regional occurrence of extreme rain events and its impact on predictability. Changing climatic conditions have led to a significant increase in magnitude and frequency of spatially extensive extreme rainfall events in the eastern Central Andes of South America. These events impose substantial natural hazards for population, economy, and ecology by floods and landslides. For example, heavy floods in Bolivia in early 2007 affected more than 133.000 households and produced estimated costs of 443 Mio. USD. Here, we develop a general framework to predict extreme events by combining a non-linear synchronization technique with complex networks. We apply our method to real-time satellite-derived rainfall data and are able to predict a large amount of extreme rainfall events. Our study reveals a linkage between polar and subtropical regimes as responsible mechanism: Extreme rainfall in the eastern Central Andes is caused by the interplay of northward migrating frontal systems and a low-level wind channel from the western Amazon to the subtropics, providing additional moisture. Frontal systems from the Antarctic thus play a key role for sub-seasonal variability of the South American Monsoon System.

  14. Will extreme climatic events facilitate biological invasions?

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Extreme climatic events, such as intense heat waves, hurricanes, floods and droughts, can dramatically affect ecological and evolutionary processes, and more extreme events are projected with ongoing climate change. However, the implications of these events for biological invasions, which themselves...

  15. Attribution of climate extreme events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trenberth, Kevin E.; Fasullo, John T.; Shepherd, Theodore G.

    2015-08-01

    There is a tremendous desire to attribute causes to weather and climate events that is often challenging from a physical standpoint. Headlines attributing an event solely to either human-induced climate change or natural variability can be misleading when both are invariably in play. The conventional attribution framework struggles with dynamically driven extremes because of the small signal-to-noise ratios and often uncertain nature of the forced changes. Here, we suggest that a different framing is desirable, which asks why such extremes unfold the way they do. Specifically, we suggest that it is more useful to regard the extreme circulation regime or weather event as being largely unaffected by climate change, and question whether known changes in the climate system's thermodynamic state affected the impact of the particular event. Some examples briefly illustrated include 'snowmaggedon' in February 2010, superstorm Sandy in October 2012 and supertyphoon Haiyan in November 2013, and, in more detail, the Boulder floods of September 2013, all of which were influenced by high sea surface temperatures that had a discernible human component.

  16. Modeling dust emission variations in Eastern Europe related to North-Atlantic abrupt climate changes of the last glacial period

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sima, A.; Kageyama, M.; Rousseau, D.; Ramstein, G.; Schulz, M.; Balkanski, Y.; Antoine, P.; Dulac, F.; Hatte, C.; Lagroix, F.; Gerasimenko, N.

    2010-12-01

    The European loess sequences of the last glacial period (~ 100-15 kyr BP) show periods of strong dust accumulation alternating with episodes of reduced (or no) sedimentation, allowing soil development. For the main loess sedimentation period (~ 40 - 15 kyr BP), data indicate a correlation between these variations and the North Atlantic rapid climate changes: the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) and Heinrich (H) events. We use numerical modeling to investigate the relationship between the North-Atlantic abrupt changes and the sedimentation variations in Europe. A first study (Sima et al, QSR, 2009) focused on western Europe, and addressed the impact on dust emission of North-Atlantic SST changes as those associated to DO and H events. It proposed that vegetation played a key role in modulating dust emission variations in western European source areas. Here we focus on eastern Europe, especially on the areas north and north-east of the Carpathian Mountains, where loess deposits have recorded DO and H events (Rousseau et al. Clim. Past D, 2010). As in the previous study, we use the LMDZ AGCM and the SECHIBA land-surface models to simulate a reference glacial state (“stadial”), a cold (“HE”) and a warm (“DO interstadial”) perturbation, all corresponding to Marine Isotope Stage 3 conditions. We follow the same protocol as for the study on the west-European sector to analyze the impact of the climate factors and surface conditions on dust emission. The simulated most active emission areas are compatible with the loess deposit distribution, and the key role of vegetation in stadial-interstadial dust emission variations is confirmed.

  17. Imprint of North-Atlantic abrupt climate changes on western European loess deposits as viewed in a dust emission model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sima, Adriana; Rousseau, Denis-Didier; Kageyama, Masa; Ramstein, Gilles; Schulz, Michael; Balkanski, Yves; Antoine, Pierre; Dulac, François; Hatté, Christine

    2009-12-01

    Western European loess sequences of the last glaciation (˜100,000-15,000 years BP) exhibit strong, cyclic variations of the sedimentation rate, which are coeval to the Greenland stadial/interstadial cycles and the Heinrich events. These North-Atlantic rapid climate changes appear, thus, as a potential cause for the sedimentation variations, via changes in dust intensity cycle. Here we make a first step in testing this hypothesis, by modelling the impact of the North-Atlantic abrupt climate variations on dust emission. Our dust emission calculations use meteorological fields generated by the LMDZ atmospheric general circulation model at a resolution down to 60 km over Western Europe. Three numerical experiments are run, representing a Greenland stadial, an interstadial and a Heinrich event. Orbital parameters and ice-sheet configuration correspond to conditions from Marine Isotope Stage 3 (˜60,000-25,000 years BP), a period characterized by strong millennial-scale climate variability. The only differences we impose in the boundary conditions regard the North-Atlantic surface temperature and sea-ice cover in the latitudinal band 30°-63°N. The changes in wind, precipitation, soil moisture and snow cover from one simulated state to another result in small differences in dust emission intensity. In contrast, when the inhibition of the aeolian erosion by vegetation is taken into account, the dust fluxes for the cold climate states (Greenland stadial and Heinrich event) become generally more than twice higher than those for the relatively warmer Greenland interstadial, in agreement with the loess data. These results support the hypothesis that the North-Atlantic millennial-scale variability is imprinted in Western European loess profiles, and point to vegetation changes as the main factor responsible for millennial-scale sedimentation variations. An analysis for the English Channel and southern North Sea areas, major potential dust sources, shows that the seasonality

  18. The Role of the Tropics in Last Glacial Abrupt Climate Change from a West Antarctic Ice Core

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, T. R.; White, J. W. C.; Steig, E. J.; Cuffey, K. M.; Vaughn, B. H.; Morris, V. A.; Vasileios, G.; Markle, B. R.; Schoenemann, S. W.

    2014-12-01

    Debate exists as to whether last glacial abrupt climate changes in Greenland, and associated changes in Antarctica, had a high-latitude or tropical trigger. An ultra high-resolution water isotope record from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide (WAIS Divide) Ice Core Project has been developed with three key water isotope parameters that offer insight into this debate: δD, δ18O, and deuterium excess (dxs). δD and δ18O are a proxy for local temperature and regional atmospheric circulation, while dxs is primarily a proxy for sea surface temperature at the ice core's moisture source(s) (relative humidity and wind speed also play a role). We build on past studies that show West Antarctic climate is modulated by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection mechanisms, which originate in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, to infer how past ENSO changes may have influenced abrupt climate change. Using frequency analysis of the water isotope data, we can reconstruct the amplitude of ENSO-scale climate oscillations in the 2-15 year range within temporal windows as low as 100 years. Our analysis uses a back diffusion model that estimates initial amplitudes before decay in the firn column. We combine δD, δ18O, and dxs frequency analysis to evaluate how climate variability at WAIS Divide is influenced by tropical climate forcing. Our results should ultimately offer insight into the role of the tropics in abrupt climate change.

  19. Speed and Magnitude of Abrupt Climate Change at 8,200 yrs B.P. from the Greenland Ice Core (GISP2)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kobashi, T.; Severinghaus, J. P.; Brook, E. J.; Grachev, A.

    2003-12-01

    At ˜8,200 years before present, an abrupt climate change occurred, which is believed to be the largest in the past 10,000 years. The scale of the event was probably global, as seen in reduced atmospheric methane concentration and paleoclimatic evidence around the globe indicating drying and cooling trends. The timing of the climate change also coincides with widespread abandonment of villages in southwestern Asia, which marks the end of the Pre-Pottery Neolithic B (PPNB) interval. Owing to the similarity between the warm early-Holocene and the projected warmer future climate, the 8.2 k event provides us an invaluable test case for a future potential abrupt climate change. We reconstructed the speed and magnitude of temperature change at the event, using argon and nitrogen isotopes in trapped air from the Greenland ice core coupled with the oxygen isotope record of ice. This method makes use of two isotopic fractionations, gravitational and thermal, which occur within the firn layer (snow layer above the air bubble close-off depth). The analyses of argon and nitrogen isotopes can separate the two effects, and allows us to directly retrieve temperature information (Severinghaus et al., Nature, v. 391, 141, 1998). The magnitude of temperature change in central Greenland at 8.2kyr B.P. is preliminarily estimated to be 5 +/- 2 ° C for the decadal average with the experimentally determined thermal diffusion constants (Grachev and Severinghaus, Geochim. et Cosmochim. Acta, v.67, 345, 2003; J. Phys. Chem., v.107, 4636, 2003), implying an oxygen isotope-temperature coefficient, α , of ˜0.4 permil/° C. Using oxygen isotope record of ice and α , we estimate that the abrupt cooling took place within ˜5 years with an 'instantaneous' magnitude of ˜8° C, and climate was locked in the cold phase for ˜60 years. In addition, we plan to measure methane concentration in trapped air, which will constrain the mechanisms of the abrupt climate change.

  20. Middle East coastal ecosystem response to middle-to-late Holocene abrupt climate changes

    PubMed Central

    Kaniewski, D.; Paulissen, E.; Van Campo, E.; Al-Maqdissi, M.; Bretschneider, J.; Van Lerberghe, K.

    2008-01-01

    The Holocene vegetation history of the northern coastal Arabian Peninsula is of long-standing interest, as this Mediterranean/semiarid/arid region is known to be particularly sensitive to climatic changes. Detailed palynological data from an 800-cm alluvial sequence cored in the Jableh plain in northwest Syria have been used to reconstruct the vegetation dynamics in the coastal lowlands and the nearby Jabal an Nuşayriyah mountains for the period 2150 to 550 B.C. Corresponding with the 4.2 to 3.9 and 3.5 to 2.5 cal kyr BP abrupt climate changes (ACCs), two large-scale shifts to a more arid climate have been recorded. These two ACCs had different impacts on the vegetation assemblages in coastal Syria. The 3.5 to 2.5 cal kyr BP ACC is drier and lasted longer than the 4.2 to 3.9 cal kyr BP ACC, and is characterized by the development of a warm steppe pollen-derived biome (1100–800 B.C.) and a peak of hot desert pollen-derived biome at 900 B.C. The 4.2 to 3.9 cal kyr BP ACC is characterized by a xerophytic woods and shrubs pollen-derived biome ca. 2050 B.C. The impact of the 3.5 to 2.5 cal kyr BP ACC on human occupation and cultural development is important along the Syrian coast with the destruction of Ugarit and the collapse of the Ugarit kingdom at ca. 1190 to 1185 B.C. PMID:18772385

  1. Abrupt Climate Change in the Arctic (and Beyond): An Update (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alley, R. B.

    2013-12-01

    Our understanding of future Arctic change is informed by the history of past changes, which often have been both large and abrupt. The well-known ice-age events such as the Younger Dryas show how sea-ice changes can amplify forcing to produce very large responses, with wintertime sea ice especially important. These changes are increasingly seen to have played a central role in the ice-age cycling through their global impact on CO2 storage in the deep ocean. The Heinrich events reveal processes of ice-sheet/ocean interaction, some of which are being played out in Greenland and Antarctica now, and which may have large future effects on sea-level rise. The paleoclimatic record plus physical understanding greatly reduce the worst worries about instabilities from methane stored in cold places, but tend to support a role in amplifying future warming. Overall, the very large impacts of past Arctic changes, and the likelihood that future changes under business-as-usual fossil-fuel emissions will be unprecedented in combined size and speed, raise important questions.

  2. Reducing abrupt climate change risk using the Montreal Protocol and other regulatory actions to complement cuts in CO2 emissions

    PubMed Central

    Molina, Mario; Zaelke, Durwood; Sarma, K. Madhava; Andersen, Stephen O.; Ramanathan, Veerabhadran; Kaniaru, Donald

    2009-01-01

    Current emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) have already committed the planet to an increase in average surface temperature by the end of the century that may be above the critical threshold for tipping elements of the climate system into abrupt change with potentially irreversible and unmanageable consequences. This would mean that the climate system is close to entering if not already within the zone of “dangerous anthropogenic interference” (DAI). Scientific and policy literature refers to the need for “early,” “urgent,” “rapid,” and “fast-action” mitigation to help avoid DAI and abrupt climate changes. We define “fast-action” to include regulatory measures that can begin within 2–3 years, be substantially implemented in 5–10 years, and produce a climate response within decades. We discuss strategies for short-lived non-CO2 GHGs and particles, where existing agreements can be used to accomplish mitigation objectives. Policy makers can amend the Montreal Protocol to phase down the production and consumption of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) with high global warming potential. Other fast-action strategies can reduce emissions of black carbon particles and precursor gases that lead to ozone formation in the lower atmosphere, and increase biosequestration, including through biochar. These and other fast-action strategies may reduce the risk of abrupt climate change in the next few decades by complementing cuts in CO2 emissions. PMID:19822751

  3. The tropical climate and vegetation response to Heinrich Event 1

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Handiani, D. N.; Paul, A.; Prange, M.; Merkel, U.; Dupont, L. M.; Zhang, X.

    2013-12-01

    Past abrupt climate change associated with Heinrich Event 1 (HE1, ca. 17.5 ka BP) is thought to be connected to a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The accompanying abrupt climate changes affect not only the ocean, but also the continents. Furthermore, a strong impact on vegetation patterns during this event is registered both at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and in the tropics. Pollen data from the tropical regions around the Atlantic Ocean (in our study from Angola and Brazil) suggest an effect on tropical vegetation through a southward shift of the rainbelt. However, the response appears to be very different in eastern South America and western Africa. To understand the different climate and vegetation pattern responses in the terrestrial tropics and to gain deeper insight into high-low-latitude climate interactions, we studied the climate and vegetation changes during the HE1 by using two different global climate models: the University of Victoria Earth System-Climate Model (UVic ESCM) and the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3). In both models, we simulated a similar HE1-like climate state. To facilitate the comparison between the model results and the available pollen records, we generated a distribution of biomes from the simulated plant functional type (PFT) coverage and climate parameters in the models. The UVic ESCM and the CCSM3 showed a slowdown of the AMOC accompanied by a seesaw temperature pattern between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, as well as a southward shift of the tropical rainbelt. The response of the tropical vegetation pattern around the Atlantic Ocean was more pronounced in the CCSM3 than in the UVic ESCM simulation. In tropical South America, opposite changes in tree and grass cover were found only in CCSM3. In tropical Africa, the tree cover decreased and grass cover increased around 15°N in the UVic ESCM and around 10°N in CCSM3. Changes in tree and grass cover in

  4. Relative timing of deglacial climate events in Antarctica and Greenland.

    PubMed

    Morgan, Vin; Delmotte, Marc; van Ommen, Tas; Jouzel, Jean; Chappellaz, Jérôme; Woon, Suenor; Masson-Delmotte, Valérie; Raynaud, Dominique

    2002-09-13

    The last deglaciation was marked by large, hemispheric, millennial-scale climate variations: the Bølling-Allerød and Younger Dryas periods in the north, and the Antarctic Cold Reversal in the south. A chronology from the high-accumulation Law Dome East Antarctic ice core constrains the relative timing of these two events and provides strong evidence that the cooling at the start of the Antarctic Cold Reversal did not follow the abrupt warming during the northern Bølling transition around 14,500 years ago. This result suggests that southern changes are not a direct response to abrupt changes in North Atlantic thermohaline circulation, as is assumed in the conventional picture of a hemispheric temperature seesaw. PMID:12228715

  5. Abrupt Changes at the Permian/Triassic Boundary: Tempo of Events from High-Resolution Cyclostratigraphy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rampino, M. R.; Prokoph, A.; Adler, A. C.

    2000-01-01

    The Permian/Triassic (P/Tr) boundary (251.4 +/- 3 Myr) is marked by the most severe mass extinction in the geologic record. Recently, precise absolute dating has bracketed the marine extinctions and associated carbon-isotope anomaly within less than 1 Myr. We improve this resolution through high-resolution stratigraphy across the P/Tr boundary in the 331-m Gartnerkofel-1 core and nearby Reppwand outcrop section (Carnic Alps, Austria) utilizing FFT and wavelet timeseries analyses of cyclic components in down-hole core logs of density and natural gamma-ray intensity, and carbon-isotopic ratios of bulk samples. The wavelet analysis indicates continuity of deposition across the P/Tr boundary interval, and the timeseries analyses show evidence for persistent cycles in the ratio of approximately 40: 10: 4.7: 2.3 meters, correlated with Milankovitch-band orbital cycles of approximately 412: 100: 40: 20 kyr (eccentricity 1 and 2, obliquity, and precession), and giving a consistent average sedimentation rate of approximately 10 cm/1,000 yr. Milankovitch periods in delta C-13 and density in these shallow-water carbonates were most likely the result of climatically induced oscillations of sea level and climate, coupled with changes in ocean circulation and productivity, that affected sedimentation. Fluctuations in gamma radiation reflect varying input of clay minerals and the presence of shaly interbeds. Throughout the P/Tr boundary interval in the core, the 100,000-year eccentricity cycle seems to be dominant. Weaker obliquity and precession cycles are in line with the location of the Austrian section in the latest Permian, close to the Equator in the western bight of the Tethys, where obliquity and precessional effects on seasonal contrast might be subdued. Using the improved resolution provided by cycle analysis in the GK-1 core, we find that the dramatic change in the faunal record that marks the P/Tr boundary takes place over less than 6m, or less than 60,000 years. In

  6. "What Controls the Structure and Stability of the Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation: Implications for Abrupt Climate Change?"

    SciTech Connect

    Fedorov, Alexey

    2013-11-23

    The central goal of this research project is to understand the properties of the ocean meridional overturning circulation (MOC) – a topic critical for understanding climate variability and stability on a variety of timescales (from decadal to centennial and longer). Specifically, we have explored various factors that control the MOC stability and decadal variability in the Atlantic and the ocean thermal structure in general, including the possibility abrupt climate change. We have also continued efforts on improving the performance of coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMs.

  7. Deglacial paleoclimate in the southwestern United States: an abrupt 18.6 ka cold event and evidence for a North Atlantic forcing of Termination I

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lachniet, Matthew S.; Asmerom, Yemane; Polyak, Victor

    2011-12-01

    We present a new U-series dated speleothem record (PC-1) from the Great Basin that documents deglacial climate variability between ca 20.1 and 15.6 ka. Our data show an abrupt 18.6 ka cold event preceding Heinrich event 1 that is consistent with expansion of the Laurentide Ice sheet during the 'binge' phase of ice growth. This event coincided with dessication of pluvial Lake Mojave suggesting cold and dry conditions in the southern Great Basin at this time. PC-1 δ 18O values before and during Heinrich event 1 are similar, but an increase in stalagmite growth rates suggests wetter conditions that coincided with deposition of spring deposits in southern Nevada. The time interval of our record is consistent with the timing of pluvial conditions in the Great Basin as evident from a comparison to regional wetness proxies. Our new speleothem record, recovered from the recharge area for Devils Hole, does not show a δ 18O increase coincident with the abrupt increase in Devils Hole δ 18O at c. 18 ka, challenging the view that the Great Basin experienced an early Termination I. This hypothesis is supported by two other southwest speleothem records that demonstrate deglaciation was synchronous with forcing from the North Atlantic Ocean. We suggest that Devils Hole speleothem δ 18O values may partly reflect source water changes in the regional aquifer. Further, Devils Hole δ 13C minima coincide with peak global glacial conditions and weak Asian monsoon periods, suggesting that they constrain better the timing of pluvial conditions in the Great Basin.

  8. Abrupt climate variability of eastern Anatolia vegetation during the last glacial

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pickarski, N.; Kwiecien, O.; Langgut, D.; Litt, T.

    2015-07-01

    Detailed analyses of the Lake Van pollen and stable oxygen isotope record allow the identification of millennial-scale vegetation and environmental changes in eastern Anatolia throughout the last glacial. The climate within the last glacial period (∼75-15 ka BP) was cold and dry, with low arboreal pollen (AP) levels. The driest and coldest period corresponds to Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 2 (∼28-14.5 ka BP) dominated by the highest values of xerophytic steppe vegetation. Our high-resolution multi proxy record shows rapid expansions and contractions that mimic the stadial-interstadial pattern of the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events as recorded in the Greenland ice cores, and thus, provide a linkage to North Atlantic climate oscillations. Periods of reduced moisture availability characterized at Lake Van by enhanced xerophytic species correlates well with increase in ice-rafted debris (IRD) and a decrease of sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Atlantic. Furthermore, comparison with the marine realm reveals that the complex atmosphere-ocean interaction can be recognized by the strength and position of the westerlies in eastern Anatolia. Influenced by rough topography at Lake Van, the expansion of temperate species (e.g. deciduous Quercus) was stronger during interstadials DO 19, 17-16, 14, 12 and 8. However, Heinrich events (HE), characterized by highest concentrations of ice-rafted debris in marine sediments, are identified in eastern Anatolia by AP values not lower and high steppe components not more abundant than during DO stadials. In addition, this work is a first attempt to establish a continuous microscopic charcoal record over the last glacial in the Near East, which documents an initial immediate response to millennial-scale climate and environmental variability and enables the shed light on the history of fire activity during the last glacial.

  9. Transient Adjustment of the global climate to an abrupt Northern North Atlantic cooling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, G.; Chang, P.; Panetta, R.; Saravanan, R.

    2013-12-01

    The Thermohaline Circulation (THC) is thought to play a key role in abrupt changes in Earth climate. In cold periods such as the Younger Dryas, the THC was much weaker than today. In an experiment with a fully coupled CCSM3 model an artificial freshwater flux is added to the Northern North Atlantic Ocean surface, which weakens the THC. The North Atlantic Ocean surface cools almost instantly after the freshwater flux onset. This cooling is subsequently spread throughout the Northern Hemisphere, resulting in the ITCZ moving southward. In the weakening THC, heat carried by the THC from Southern Hemisphere to the Northern Hemisphere is reduced, resulting in a cooler Northern Hemisphere. It is still questioned what role the atmosphere plays in this process. There are two possible ways the atmosphere may change the ocean surface temperature. One is that the wind changes the ocean surface wind-driven circulation, leading to a change to the ocean heat budget. Another is that the atmosphere changes the ocean-atmosphere heat flux directly. Here we look into the second possibility by comparing the effects of freshwater flux in a fully coupled model to the effects of the same flux in a model constructed by coupling an atmospheric general circulation model (CAM3) to a thermodynamic slab ocean model. With use of appropriate Q-fluxes, the coupled model with the slab ocean has the same climatology as the fully coupled CCSM3 model. Perturbation Q-fluxes are constructed for the fresh water flux experiments using a restoring technique. We find that the atmosphere interacting with a thermodynamic slab ocean can spread the cooling from the Northern North Atlantic and cause the ITCZ to move southward, and that there is a cooling front propagating southward with a speed depending on the mixed layer depth: a deeper mixed layer depth results in a slower propagation. By applying the Q-flux perturbation only in the Northern North Atlantic Ocean, the effect of the ocean circulation change on

  10. A Generalized Stability Analysis of the AMOC in Earth System Models: Implication for Decadal Variability and Abrupt Climate Change

    SciTech Connect

    Fedorov, Alexey V.; Fedorov, Alexey

    2015-01-14

    The central goal of this research project was to understand the mechanisms of decadal and multi-decadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as related to climate variability and abrupt climate change within a hierarchy of climate models ranging from realistic ocean models to comprehensive Earth system models. Generalized Stability Analysis, a method that quantifies the transient and asymptotic growth of perturbations in the system, is one of the main approaches used throughout this project. The topics we have explored range from physical mechanisms that control AMOC variability to the factors that determine AMOC predictability in the Earth system models, to the stability and variability of the AMOC in past climates.

  11. Millennial-scale precipitation variability over Easter Island (South Pacific) during MIS 3: inter-hemispheric teleconnections with North Atlantic abrupt cold events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Margalef, O.; Cacho, I.; Pla-Rabes, S.; Cañellas-Boltà, N.; Pueyo, J. J.; Sáez, A.; Pena, L. D.; Valero-Garcés, B. L.; Rull, V.; Giralt, S.

    2015-04-01

    Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3, 59.4-27.8 kyr BP) is characterized by the occurrence of rapid millennial-scale climate oscillations known as Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles (DO) and by abrupt cooling events in the North Atlantic known as Heinrich events. Although both the timing and dynamics of these events have been broadly explored in North Atlantic records, the response of the tropical and subtropical latitudes to these rapid climatic excursions, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere, still remains unclear. The Rano Aroi peat record (Easter Island, 27° S) provides a unique opportunity to understand atmospheric and oceanic changes in the South Pacific during these DO cycles because of its singular location, which is influenced by the South Pacific Anticyclone (SPA), the Southern Westerlies (SW), and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) linked to the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). The Rano Aroi sequence records 6 major events of enhanced precipitation between 38 and 65 kyr BP. These events are compared with other hydrological records from the tropical and subtropical band supporting a coherent regional picture, with the dominance of humid conditions in Southern Hemisphere tropical band during Heinrich Stadials (HS) 5, 5a and 6 and other Stadials while dry conditions prevailed in the Northern tropics. This antiphased hydrological pattern between hemispheres has been attributed to ITCZ migration, which in turn might be associated with an eastward expansion of the SPCZ storm track, leading to an increased intensity of cyclogenic storms reaching Easter Island. Low Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) gradients across the Equator were coincident with the here-defined Rano Aroi humid events and consistent with a reorganization of Southern Pacific atmospheric and oceanic circulation also at higher latitudes during Heinrich and Dansgaard-Oeschger stadials.

  12. Response to Comment on "Abrupt warming events drove Late Pleistocene Holarctic megafaunal turnover".

    PubMed

    Cooper, Alan; Turney, Chris; Hughen, Konrad

    2016-02-26

    Rasmussen and Svensson correctly point out that there is currently no satisfactory method to fully align the Greenland and Cariaco Basin records of climate change. However, our approach using interstadial onsets as tie-points allows direct comparison between radiocarbon dates and Greenland climate records. Crucially, both the standard Greenland and the merged Greenland-Cariaco time scales show that interstadial warming was associated with megafaunal genetic transitions. PMID:26917762

  13. Millennial scale precipitation changes over Easter Island (Southern Pacific) during MIS 3: Inter-hemispheric connections during North Atlantic abrupt cold events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Margalef, Olga; Cacho, Isabel; Pla-Rabes, Sergi; Cañellas-Boltà, Núria; Pueyo, Juan Jose; Sáez, Alberto; Valero-Garcés, Blas L.; Giralt, Santiago

    2013-04-01

    Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3 climate has been globally characterized by the occurrence of millennial-scale climate variations defined over North Atlantic as Dansgaard-Oeschger and Heinrich events. Despite climate variability has been broadly explored over North Atlantic records, the response of the tropical and subtropical latitudes, especially in the Southern Hemisphere, still remains as a matter of debate. Rano Aroi peat record (Easter Island, Chile, 27°S) provides a unique opportunity to understand Southern Pacific atmospheric and oceanic changes during these stadial-interstadial transitions because of its exceptional location on the interplay of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ), the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the South Pacific Anticyclone (SPA) and the Southern Westerlies (SW). Rano Aroi record contains 8 main enhanced precipitation events between 70 and 40 kyr BP that can be correlated with the timing of Heinrich events 5, 5a and 6 as well as other cold stadials. These humid events are also present in other Southern Hemisphere continental sites and correspond to dry periods on Northern Hemisphere records. This opposite hydrologic trend has been explained by the latitudinal migration of ITCZ and has been supported by several climatic models. As Easter Island precipitation is mainly dependent on SPCZ storm track belt activity, we suggest that the southern migration of the ITCZ is associated to an expansion of SPCZ to the east. This process should be intimately related to a weakening of the Walker circulation, which is further supported by an estimation of d18Osw gradient along the equator for the same time period. Consequently, atmospheric and oceanic responses during these cold stadials and Heinrich events might lead to a configuration that resembles the warm ENSO state over Southern Pacific, as previously suggested by some global climatic models. Rano Aroi record clearly points out that shifts in hydrological cycle in tropical Southern

  14. Abrupt climate and vegetation variability of eastern Anatolia during the last glacial

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pickarski, N.; Kwiecien, O.; Langgut, D.; Litt, T.

    2015-11-01

    Detailed analyses of the Lake Van pollen, Ca / K ratio, and stable oxygen isotope record allow the identification of millennial-scale vegetation and environmental changes in eastern Anatolia throughout the last glacial (~ 111.5-11.7 ka BP). The climate of the last glacial was cold and dry, indicated by low arboreal pollen (AP) levels. The driest and coldest period corresponds to Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 2 (~ 28-14.5 ka BP), which was dominated by highest values of xerophytic steppe vegetation. Our high-resolution multi-proxy record shows rapid expansions and contractions of tree populations that reflect variability in temperature and moisture availability. These rapid vegetation and environmental changes can be related to the stadial-interstadial pattern of Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events as recorded in the Greenland ice cores. Periods of reduced moisture availability were characterized by enhanced occurrence of xerophytic species and high terrigenous input from the Lake Van catchment area. Furthermore, the comparison with the marine realm reveals that the complex atmosphere-ocean interaction can be explained by the strength and position of the westerlies, which are responsible for the supply of humidity in eastern Anatolia. Influenced by the diverse topography of the Lake Van catchment, more pronounced DO interstadials (e.g., DO 19, 17-16, 14, 12 and 8) show the strongest expansion of temperate species within the last glacial. However, Heinrich events (HE), characterized by highest concentrations of ice-rafted debris (IRD) in marine sediments, cannot be separated from other DO stadials based on the vegetation composition in eastern Anatolia. In addition, this work is a first attempt to establish a continuous microscopic charcoal record for the last glacial in the Near East. It documents an immediate response to millennial-scale climate and environmental variability and enables us to shed light on the history of fire activity during the last glacial.

  15. Abrupt Climate Change During the Last Glacial Cycle Based on Gulf of Mexico Sediments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Flower, B. P.; Hastings, D. W.; Hill, H.; Quinn, T. M.

    2003-12-01

    Evidence is emerging that the tropical climate system played a major role in past global climate change during the last glacial cycle. However, existing studies indicate asynchronous temperature variability in the western equatorial Atlantic, complicating the identification of causal mechanisms. Because the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) is linked to the equatorial Atlantic, sea-surface temperature (SST) records from the GOM help assess the phasing between low- and high-latitude Atlantic climate. High sedimentation rates of >40 cm/k.y. and laminated sediments in Orca Basin allow sub-centennial-scale resolution. Paired δ 18O and Mg/Ca data on the planktic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber from core EN32-PC6 are used to separate deglacial changes in SST and δ 18Oseawater due to low-salinity meltwater from the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS). Mg-SST increases by >3.0° C between 17.2 and 15.2 ka (calendar years) encompassing Heinrich Event 1 in the North Atlantic. Comparison to polar ice core records indicates GOM SST was not in phase with Greenland air temperature, consistent with thermohaline circulation modulation of Atlantic climate. This warming represents the bulk of the 4.2+/-0.9° C increase from the last glacial maximum (24.0+/-0.8° C) to early Holocene (29.0+/-0.4° C). Subtracting temperature and ice-volume effects from Gs. ruber δ 18O reveals two episodes of LIS meltwater input, one of >1.5% from ca. 16.2-15.7 ka and a second major spike of >2% from ca. 15.2-13.0 ka that encompassed meltwater pulse 1A (mwp-1A) and peaked at ca. 13.4 ka. These results suggest that (1) subtropical Atlantic SST warming preceded peak LIS decay and mwp-1A by >2 k.y., (2) thermohaline circulation may have modulated Atlantic climate on the millennial scale during the last deglaciation, and (3) major LIS meltwater input to the GOM ended before North Atlantic Deep Water suppression during the Younger Dryas. A new 31.79 m Calypso piston core collected in July 2002 on the R/V Marion Dufresne

  16. The abrupt climate change near 4,400 yr BP on the cultural transition in Yuchisi, China and its global linkage

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Jianjun; Sun, Liguang; Chen, Liqi; Xu, Libin; Wang, Yuhong; Wang, Xinming

    2016-01-01

    Extreme climatic events have profound impacts on human society. Here we present the results of a study of organic biomarkers within a sedimentary section at the archaeological site of Yuchisi, eastern China, in order to reconstruct climatic variability during the Dawenkou (5,050–4,400 yr BP) and Longshan (4,400–4,000 yr BP) cultures. At ~4,400 yr BP, within the cultural transition horizon, abrupt changes in biomarkers, such as the fatty acid ratio C18:2/C18:0, 2C31/(C27 + C29), n-C18-ol and n-C30-ol, indicate the occurrence of local climate changes over the course of a few decades. These changes occurred during the transition from the Holocene warm period to a subsequent cold period which lasted for the following 600 years. This climatic shift has been recorded at numerous sites worldwide, and it is likely to have been the main cause of the widespread collapse of many isolated cultures at that time. The palaeoclimatic and archaeological data from the Yuchisi sediments may provide new insights into the relationship between climate change and prehistoric cultural transitions. PMID:27283832

  17. The abrupt climate change near 4,400 yr BP on the cultural transition in Yuchisi, China and its global linkage.

    PubMed

    Wang, Jianjun; Sun, Liguang; Chen, Liqi; Xu, Libin; Wang, Yuhong; Wang, Xinming

    2016-01-01

    Extreme climatic events have profound impacts on human society. Here we present the results of a study of organic biomarkers within a sedimentary section at the archaeological site of Yuchisi, eastern China, in order to reconstruct climatic variability during the Dawenkou (5,050-4,400 yr BP) and Longshan (4,400-4,000 yr BP) cultures. At ~4,400 yr BP, within the cultural transition horizon, abrupt changes in biomarkers, such as the fatty acid ratio C18:2/C18:0, 2C31/(C27 + C29), n-C18-ol and n-C30-ol, indicate the occurrence of local climate changes over the course of a few decades. These changes occurred during the transition from the Holocene warm period to a subsequent cold period which lasted for the following 600 years. This climatic shift has been recorded at numerous sites worldwide, and it is likely to have been the main cause of the widespread collapse of many isolated cultures at that time. The palaeoclimatic and archaeological data from the Yuchisi sediments may provide new insights into the relationship between climate change and prehistoric cultural transitions. PMID:27283832

  18. The abrupt climate change near 4,400 yr BP on the cultural transition in Yuchisi, China and its global linkage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Jianjun; Sun, Liguang; Chen, Liqi; Xu, Libin; Wang, Yuhong; Wang, Xinming

    2016-06-01

    Extreme climatic events have profound impacts on human society. Here we present the results of a study of organic biomarkers within a sedimentary section at the archaeological site of Yuchisi, eastern China, in order to reconstruct climatic variability during the Dawenkou (5,050–4,400 yr BP) and Longshan (4,400–4,000 yr BP) cultures. At ~4,400 yr BP, within the cultural transition horizon, abrupt changes in biomarkers, such as the fatty acid ratio C18:2/C18:0, 2C31/(C27 + C29), n-C18-ol and n-C30-ol, indicate the occurrence of local climate changes over the course of a few decades. These changes occurred during the transition from the Holocene warm period to a subsequent cold period which lasted for the following 600 years. This climatic shift has been recorded at numerous sites worldwide, and it is likely to have been the main cause of the widespread collapse of many isolated cultures at that time. The palaeoclimatic and archaeological data from the Yuchisi sediments may provide new insights into the relationship between climate change and prehistoric cultural transitions.

  19. A Collaborative Proposal: Simulating and Understanding Abrupt Climate-Ecosystem Changes During Holocene with NCAR-CCSM3.

    SciTech Connect

    Zhengyu Liu, Bette Otto-Bliesner

    2013-02-01

    We have made significant progress in our proposed work in the last 4 years (3 years plus 1 year of no cost extension). In anticipation of the next phase of study, we have spent time on the abrupt changes since the last glacial maximum. First, we have performed further model-data comparison based on our baseline TRACE-21 simulation and made important progress towards the understanding of several major climate transitions. Second, we have made a significant effort in processing the model output of TRACE-21 and have put this output on a website for access by the community. Third, we have completed many additional sensitivity experiments. In addition, we have organized synthesis workshops to facilitate and promote transient model-data comparison for the international community. Finally, we have identified new areas of interest for Holocene climate changes.

  20. Imminent onset and abrupt increase in duration of low aragonite and calcite saturation state events in the Southern Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Friedrich, T.; Hauri, C.; Timmermann, A.

    2015-12-01

    Rapid progression of ocean acidification is a threat to key organisms of the Southern Ocean ecosystem. While the severity of ocean acidification impacts is mainly determined by the duration, intensity, and spatial extent of low aragonite or calcite saturation state events, little is known about the nature of these events, their evolving attributes, and the timing of their onset. Using output of historical and RCP 8.5 simulations from ten Earth System Models from CMIP5, we found that aragonite undersaturation, which decreases the calcification rate of pteropods and causes dissolution of their aragonitic shell, will spread rapidly after 2035, covering 70 % of the Southern Ocean surface waters by 2095. Surface aragonite undersaturation events will last for about 5 months in areas south of 60°S by 2055, and for more than 8 months by the end of the century. Overall, the duration of these events increases from 1 month to more than 6 months within fewer than 20 years in >75 % of the affected area. This abrupt change in exposure duration to unfavorable conditions may be too fast for pteropods to adapt, as these chemical changes will occur within just a few generations. As a result of two month-long calcite undersaturation events projected for the end of this century, even organisms built of the more stable calcium carbonate mineral calcite will face prolonged chemical dissolution. The threat of ocean acidification to the Southern Ocean ecosystem may be more imminent than previously thought, and may spread quickly to the southern tips of New Zealand, South America, and South Africa, with potentially far-reaching consequences to fisheries, local economies, and livelihoods.

  1. Redefining deuterium excess in ice cores: Antarctic-wide evidence for ITCZ and polar jet variability during abrupt climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Markle, B. R.; Steig, E. J.; Schoenemann, S. W.; Sowers, T. A.; Buizert, C.; Ding, Q.; Fudge, T. J.; White, J. W.

    2013-12-01

    We examine a new, high-resolution ice core record of water isotopes (δ18O and deuterium excess) and atmospheric methane from West Antarctica, focusing on the millennial events of the most recent glacial period. High temporal resolution and a small gas-age/ice-age difference enable unprecedented precision in the analysis of phasing between these records. Our analysis reveals large amplitude millennial variability in the deuterium excess, a proxy for moisture source conditions and atmospheric circulation, which is out of phase with local site temperatures. On the other hand, this variability is in phase with atmospheric methane, which likely records changes in tropical hydrology and co-varies with Greenland temperatures during abrupt millennial Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. Using a logarithmic definition of the deuterium excess, we show that these changes were probably near symmetric around Antarctica; the historical (linear) definition of the parameter appears to misrepresent millennial to multi-millennial variability at high East Antarctic ice core sites. Modeling experiments show that asymmetric warming of the hemispheres, a defining characteristic of these millennial events, should shift the position of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and in turn the Southern sub-polar jet. Postulated ITCZ shifts can, in principle, help to explain the rapid rise in methane that accompanies abrupt Northern Hemisphere warming events by varying tropical rainfall patterns. Our observations are the first to show that these tropical changes may have directly influenced moisture sources and atmospheric circulation in the high southern latitudes, as recorded by the deuterium excess. We support these paleoclimate observations with isotope tracing atmospheric modeling experiments.

  2. Quantifying Climate Feedbacks from Abrupt Changes in High-Latitude Trace-Gas Emissions

    SciTech Connect

    Schlosser, Courtney Adam; Walter-Anthony, Katey; Zhuang, Qianlai; Melillo, Jerry

    2013-04-26

    Our overall goal was to quantify the potential for threshold changes in natural emission rates of trace gases, particularly methane and carbon dioxide, from pan-arctic terrestrial systems under the spectrum of anthropogenically forced climate warming, and the extent to which these emissions provide a strong feedback mechanism to global climate warming. This goal is motivated under the premise that polar amplification of global climate warming will induce widespread thaw and degradation of the permafrost, and would thus cause substantial changes in the extent of wetlands and lakes, especially thermokarst (thaw) lakes, over the Arctic. Through a coordinated effort of field measurements, model development, and numerical experimentation with an integrated assessment model framework, we have investigated the following hypothesis: There exists a climate-warming threshold beyond which permafrost degradation becomes widespread and thus instigates strong and/or sharp increases in methane emissions (via thermokarst lakes and wetland expansion). These would outweigh any increased uptake of carbon (e.g. from peatlands) and would result in a strong, positive feedback to global climate warming.

  3. Revisiting Lake Hämelsee: reconstructing abrupt Lateglacial climate transitions using state- of-the-art palaeoclimatological proxies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Engels, Stefan; Hoek, Wim; Lane, Christine; Sachse, Dirk; Wagner-Cremer, Friederike

    2015-04-01

    Lake Hämelsee (Germany) is one of the northernmost sites in NW Europe that has varved sediments throughout large parts of its Lateglacial and Early Holocene sediment sequence. Previous research on this site has shown its potential, in terms of chronological resolution and palaeoecological reconstructions, for reconstructing the abrupt transitions into and out of the Younger Dryas, the last cold period of the last glacial. The site was revisited during a 1-week summer school for Early Stage Researchers (2013), within the INTIMATE Example training and research project, supported by EU Cost Action ES0907. Two overlapping sediment sequences were retrieved from the centre of the lake during the summer school. These sediments have since formed the basis for follow-up research projects, which have sparked the collaboration of around 30 researchers in 12 laboratories across Europe. A chronological framework for the core has been composed from a combination of varve counting, radiocarbon dating and tephrochronology. Tephrostratigraphic correlations allow direct correlation and precise comparison of the record to marine and ice core records from the North Atlantic region, and other terrestrial European archives. Furthermore, the core is has been subjected to multiple sedimentological (e.g. XRF, loss-on-ignition), geochemical (e.g. lipid biomarkers, GDGTs) and palaeoecological (e.g. pollen, chironomids) proxy-based reconstructions of past environmental and climatic conditions. The results provide important insights into the nature of the abrupt climate transitions of the Lateglacial and Early Holocene, both locally and on a continental scale. The INTIMATE Example participants: Illaria Baneschi, Achim Brauer, Christopher Bronk Ramsey, Renee de Bruijn, Siwan Davies, Aritina Haliuc, Katalin Hubay, Gwydion Jones, Meike Müller, Johanna Menges, Josef Merkt, Tom Peters, Francien Peterse, Anneke ter Schure, Kathrin Schuetrumpf, Richard Staff, Falko Turner, Valerie van den Bos.

  4. Abrupt climate change around 4 ka BP: Role of the Thermohaline circulation as indicated by a GCM experiment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Shaowu; Zhou, Tianjun; Cai, Jingning; Zhu, Jinhong; Xie, Zhihui; Gong, Daoyi

    2004-04-01

    A great deal of palaeoenvironmental and palaeoclimatic evidence suggests that a predominant temperature drop and an aridification occurred at ca. 4.0 ka BP. Palaeoclimate studies in China support this dedution. The collapse of ancient civilizations at ca. 4.0 ka BP in the Nile Valley and Mesopotamia has been attributed to climate-induced aridification. A widespread alternation of the ancient cultures was also found in China at ca. 4.0 ka BP in concert with the collapse of the civilizations in the Old World. Palaeoclimatic studies indicate that the abrupt climate change at 4.0 ka BP is one of the realizations of the cold phase in millennial scale climate oscillations, which may be related to the modulation of the Thermohaline Circulation (THC) over the Atlantic Ocean. Therefore, this study conducts a numerical experiment of a GCM with SST forcing to simulate the impact of the weakening of the THC. Results show a drop in temperature from North Europe, the northern middle East Asia, and northern East Asia and a significant reduction of precipitation in East Africa, the Middle East, the Indian Peninsula, and the Yellow River Valley. This seems to support the idea that coldness and aridification at ca. 4.0 ka BP was caused by the weakening of the THC.

  5. Iceberg discharges and oceanic circulation changes during glacial abrupt climate changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alvarez-Solas, Jorge; Robinson, Alexander; Banderas, Rubén; Montoya, Marisa

    2015-04-01

    Proxy data reveal the existence of episodes of increased deposition of ice-rafted debris in the North Atlantic Ocean during the last glacial period. These are interpreted as massive iceberg discharges mainly from the Laurentide Ice Sheet. Although these have long been attributed to self-sustained ice sheet oscillations, growing evidence points to an active role of the oceanic circulation. Here we will present simulations of the last glacial period carried out with a hybrid ice sheet-ice shelf model. Two mechanisms producing iceberg discharges are compared. First, we reproduce the classic binge-purge by which the iceberg surges are produced thanks to the existence of an internal thermo-mechanical feedback that allows the ice sheet to behave under an oscillatory regime. Second, our ice-sheet model is forced by an oceanic warming index derived from proxy data that accounts for the impact of past ocean circulation changes on ocean temperatures. In this case, the model generates a time series of iceberg calving that agrees with ice-rafted debris records over the past 80 ka. We compare the two theories and discuss their advantages and weaknesses in terms of both the robustness of the physics on which they are based and their comparison with proxies. This comparison highlights the importance of considering past oceanic circulation changes in order to understand the ice-sheet dynamics. However, the ultimate processes determining abrupt changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) remain elusive. Therefore we will also analyze several proposed mechanisms that aims to explain such AMOC reorganizations, focusing on those that do not require freshwater flux forcing.

  6. Abrupt changes in rainfall during the twentieth century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Narisma, G.; Foley, J.; Licker, R.; Ramankutty, N.

    2007-12-01

    A sudden change in climate is brought about by complex interactions in the climate system, including interactions between land and atmosphere, that can give rise to strong positive feedback mechanisms. Paleoclimatic studies have shown that abrupt climate changes have happened in the geologic past. Studies of future climate change under global warming scenarios indicate the possibility of the sudden collapse of the thermohaline circulation, which will have major implications for the climate of Europe. However, abrupt climatic changes are not events of the geologic past or a computer-simulated future: they have occurred in recent history and have had serious consequences on society and the environment. The prolonged Sahel drought in the late 1960s and the Dust Bowl of the 1930s are examples of abrupt climatic changes of the twentieth century. Apart from these events, however, there has been no systematic survey of recent climate history to determine the prevalence of abrupt climatic changes. Given the potential cost of these abrupt changes, there is a need to investigate historical records for evidence of other sudden climatic changes in the more recent past. Here we analyze the Climate Research Unit global historical rainfall observations (covering the years 1901-2000) using wavelet analysis to detect regions that have undergone large, sudden decreases in rainfall. We show that in the twentieth century, aside from the Sahel and the US midwest, at least 30 regions in the world have experienced sudden climatic changes. These events are statistically significant at the 99 percent level, are persistent for at least ten years, and most have magnitudes of change that are 10 percent lower than the climatological normal (1901-2000 rainfall average). We also illustrate some of the potential consequences of these abrupt changes and show that these events had major impacts on social and environmental conditions. Interestingly, these regions of abrupt precipitation changes are

  7. Combined effect of soil erosion and climate change induces abrupt changes in soil and vegetation properties in semiarid Mediterranean shrublands.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bochet, Esther; García-Fayos, Patricio

    2013-04-01

    Semiarid Mediterranean ecosystems are experiencing major alterations as a result of the complex interactions between climatic fluctuations and disturbances caused by human activities. Future scenarios of global change forecast a rapid degradation of these ecosystems, with a reduction of their functionality, as a result of changes in relevant vegetation and soil properties. Some theoretical models indicate that these ecosystems respond non-linearly to regular variations in the external conditions, with an abrupt shift when conditions approach a certain critical level or threshold. Considering these predictions, there is an urgent need to know the effects that these alterations might have on semi-arid ecosystems and their components. In this study, we aim at analyzing the consequences of climate change and increasing soil erosion on soil and vegetation properties and the functional dynamics of semiarid Mediterranean shrublands. We predict that the combined effect of both drivers will be additive or synergistic, increasing the negative effects of each one. We compared vegetation and soil properties of flat areas (low erosion) and steep hillslopes (high erosion) in two climatic areas (484 mm and 10.3°C, and 368mm and 11.9°C, respectively) that reproduce the predicted climate change in temperature and precipitation for the next 40 years. Species richness, vegetal cover, plant life-form composition were determined in 20 m2 plots and soil was sampled in the same plots to determine bulk density, aggregate stability, fertility and water holding capacity. All soil and vegetation properties were negatively affected by soil erosion and climate change. However, contrary to our hypothesis, the joined effect of both drivers on all soil and vegetation properties was antagonistic, except for the vegetal cover that showed an additive response to their interaction. Our results evidence that soil erosion affects more negatively the soil and vegetation properties in the cooler and

  8. Terrestrial Plant Biomarkers Preserved in Cariaco Basin Sediments: Records of Abrupt Tropical Vegetation Response to Rapid Climate Changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hughen, K. A.; Eglinton, T. I.; Makou, M.; Xu, L.; Sylva, S.

    2004-12-01

    versus δ 13C for Cariaco Basin and NW African leaf waxes indicate that biomarkers reflect real changes in local South American vegetation and not contamination from long-distance transport during cold windy climates. The precise temporal relationship between tropical vegetation shifts and climate changes is measured by direct comparison of terrestrial vegetation and climate proxies from the same core. Abrupt deglacial climate shifts in tropical and high-latitude North Atlantic regions were synchronous, whereas changes in tropical vegetation consistently lagged climate shifts by several decades.

  9. New Measurements of 14C Provide Constraints on Sources of a Large Atmospheric Methane Increase During the Younger Dryas - Preboreal Abrupt Warming Event

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petrenko, V. V.; Severinghaus, J. P.; Smith, A.; Riedel, K.; Brook, E.; Schaefer, H.; Baggenstos, D.; Harth, C. M.; Hua, Q.; Buizert, C.; Schilt, A.; Fain, X.; Mitchell, L.; Bauska, T. K.; Orsi, A. J.; Weiss, R. F.

    2014-12-01

    Thawing permafrost and marine methane hydrate destabilization have been proposed as large sources of methane to the atmosphere in the future warming world. To evaluate this hypothesis it is useful to ask whether such methane releases happened during past warming events. The two major abrupt warming events of the last deglaciation, Oldest Dryas - Bølling (OD-B) and Younger Dryas - Preboreal (YD-PB), were associated with large (up to 50%) increases in atmospheric methane (CH4) concentrations. The sources of these large warming-driven CH4 increases remain incompletely understood, with possible contributions from tropical and boreal wetlands, thawing permafrost as well as marine CH4 hydrates. We present new measurements of 14C of paleoatmospheric CH4 over the YD-PB transition from ancient ice outcropping at Taylor Glacier, Antarctica. 14C can unambiguously identify CH4 emissions from "old carbon" sources, such as permafrost and CH4 hydrates. The only prior study of paleoatmospheric 14CH4 (from Greenland ice) suggested that wetlands were the main driver of the YD-PB CH4 increase, but the results were weakened by an unexpected and poorly understood 14CH4 component from in situ cosmogenic production directly in near-surface ice. In this new study, we have been able to accurately characterize and correct for the cosmogenic 14CH4 component. Preliminary analysis of the results indicates that ≈10% of the overall CH4 source to the atmosphere during the nearly-constant climate of the YD was attributable to 14C-free sources. This 14C-free source fraction increased slightly over the YD-PB transition, however, wetlands were nonetheless the main driver of the CH4 increase. Final analysis and interpretation of the 14CH4 data are currently in progress.

  10. Impact of Climate events over the Last Glacial-Interglacial Transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoek, Wim; Birks, Hilary; WG4Members, Intimate

    2013-04-01

    The time period from 60-8 ka cal BP is marked by a series of abrupt climate events that became apparent from especially the Greenland Ice core records. These ice core records furthermore provided a precise and detailed chronology for the occurrence of these climate events. In the European terrestrial environment numerous studies have shown that these climate events have had an impact on the environment, ranging from geomorphological changes, changes in vegetation composition, faunal composition, and human behaviour and development. However, the recognition of the impact of the different events is strongly dependent on reliable age models for the environmental records. This requires a careful selection and analysis of existing data. Working Group 4 of the INTIMATE COST action aims to review the nature and quality of climate reconstructions of past environmental change across the full range of European environments (Mediterranean to sub-Arctic). For this we try to enlarge the European network of researchers, stimulate data sharing and eventually synthesise thematic environmental datasets. Important aspects are to identify the impacts of abrupt and extreme change and reveal the timing, duration and thresholds of climate impact. The first results for selected climate events show that clear gradients and thresholds exist, especially in ecotonal environmental settings. Resilience and inertia of the ecosystem and its components will determine whether thresholds are crossed or not and whether changes are so large that they could be considered as a regime shift (for example the change from tundra or steppe to forest). Environmental and particularly biotic responses will always lag the climate driver by very small to considerable amounts of time, depending on the biological traits and distributions of the organisms concerned. Therefore, we should not expect the apparent consequences of climate-driven changes to be synchronous across the European continent. We aim to identify

  11. Percolation Features on Climate Network under Attacks of El Niño Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lu, Z.

    2015-12-01

    Percolation theory under different attacks is one of the main research areas in complex networks but never be applied to investigate climate network. In this study, for the first time we construct a climate network of surface air temperature field to analyze its percolation features. Here, we regard El Niño event as a kind of naturally attacks generated from Pacific Ocean to attack its upper climate network. We find that El Niño event leads an abrupt percolation phase transition to the climate network which makes it splitting and unstable suddenly. Comparing the results of the climate network under three different forms of attacks, including most connected attack (MA), localized attack (LA) and random attack (RA) respectively, it is found that both MA and LA lead first-order transition and RA leads second-order transition to the climate network. Furthermore, we find that most real attacks consist of all these three forms of attacks. With El Niño event emerging, the ratios of LA and MA increase and dominate the style of attack while RA decreasing. It means the percolation phase transition due to El Niño events is close to first-order transition mostly affected by LA and MA. Our research may help us further understand two questions from perspective of percolation on network: (1) Why not all warming in Pacific Ocean but El Niño events could affect the climate. (2) Why the climate affected by El Niño events changes abruptly.

  12. Investigating Potential Causes for An Abrupt Change of Thermal State in Earth's Upper Mantle During the Great Oxygenation Event

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, M.; McNamara, A. K.

    2014-12-01

    The oxygenic photosynthesis might have well evolved about 3 billion years ago, but there seems no great increase of atmospheric oxygen until the great oxygenation event (GOE) at about 2.4 Ga. One possibility for the suppressing of atmospheric oxygen level before the GOE is through consumption of oxygen by reduced volcanic gasses. The amount of atmospheric oxygen that could be consumed by volcanic gases depends on the absolute amount of volcanic gases as well as the redox state of the upper mantle. Evidence from the redox sensitive V/Sc ratio have shown that the redox state of the upper mantle have remained constant for the last 3.5 billion years (e.g., Li and Lee, 2004). If so, abrupt changes in thermal state of Earth's upper mantle could explain the rapid changes of degassing rate at the time of GOE. The Earth's lowermost mantle has been shown to be compositionally heterogeneous, which could be caused by the presence of dense, primordial material resulting from early differentiation processes. An important question is how do chemical heterogeneities in the lowermost mantle influence the secular cooling of the upper mantle. Here, we performed numerical calculations to explore the effects of themochemical convection on the thermal evolution of Earth's upper mantle. A large parameter space is explored, with varying Rayleigh number, viscosity, internal heating and density of chemical heterogeneities. We start with an initially hot mantle with a layer of dense material in the lowermost mantle. We found that when the mantle is hot, the dense material remains layered and covers the entire CMB, leading to low CMB heat flux. In this stage, the upper mantle cools down rapidly. However, as the mantle cools, the dense material is swept into discrete thermochemical piles by cold downwellings, leading to increasing CMB heat flux. The cooling rate of the mantle is temporarily reduced as this transition occurs. This occurs at a time consistent with the GOE event. Li, Z. X. A. and

  13. Climate and Antartic Intermediate Water Covariations on Centennial-Millennial Timescales during MIS 3—Constraining the Role of the "Oceanic Tunnel" in Abrupt Climate Change.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kleiven, H. F.; Ninnemann, U.

    2014-12-01

    The equatorward ventilation of Southern Hemisphere extratropical water masses to the low latitude thermocline has been proposed as a window through which the high latitude ocean can modulate tropical climate on anything from decadal to orbital timescales. This hypothesis is founded largely on the observation that tropical thermocline waters originate mostly in the Southern Hemisphere and that computer simulations suggest property anomalies in these source regions can advect through the intermediate ocean, "the ocean tunnel" to influence tropical SST. However, few observational records of extratropical ocean changes are available to assess their impacts on multi-decadal and longer timescales. Here we add to the observational record using new decadally resolved planktonic and benthic foraminiferal isotopic records spanning MIS 3 (20-50 ka) from the Chilean slope ODP Site 1233 that is located on the northern margin of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and its seafloor lies in the core of Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW). Thus the site is ideally situated to reconstruct both near surface and AAIW variability in the high southern latitudes. On centennial to millennial timescales, changes in intermediate water properties track those in the near surface albeit with a reduced amplitude—confirming the idea that changes in the extratropical ocean effect the oceanic tunnel on these timescales. The new benthic and plantic foraminiferal isotope results demonstrate that variations in intermediate ocean properties and climate of the southeast Pacific closely align with those recorded in the EPICA ice core from Dronning Maud Land. Such abrupt, synoptic scale changes in Antarctic climate and dynamics will have potentially widespread climatic and biogeochemical consequences along the downstream flowpath of AAIW. The broad coherence of the observed Antarctic signal supports the concept of hemispheric thermal asynchrony on millennial timescales, and the extension of this climate

  14. A climate emulator for coastal flooding events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rueda Zamora, A. C.; Méndez Incera, F. J.; Camus, P.; Tomas, A.

    2014-12-01

    The evaluation of coastal flooding requires the definition of the multivariate marine climate conditions (wave height, wave period, wave direction, wind, surge levels). Historical reanalysis databases are a valuable information source. However, the limited time period covered implies uncertainty in the statistical characterization of extremes. Besides, downscaling is needed to extend data to climate change scenarios or long-term historical periods, or even to understand the interannual variability. A statistical downscaling approach is adopted due to its low computational cost. The relationship between large-scale atmospheric variables (predictor) and local marine climate variables (predictand) is established by means of a physical division of the predictand based on weather types. The multivariate dependence structure of the predictand (extreme events) is introduced linking the independent marginal distributions of the variables by a probabilistic copula regression. Therefore, the climate emulator is a stochastic hybrid model with the following steps: 1) Collecting historical data for the predictor (atmospheric variables) and predictand (sea state parameters, storm-surge); 2) Predictor definition, i.e. using ESTELA method in the case of wave generation characteristics (Pérez et al., 2014a); 3) Defining the most appropriate statistical model (distribution modeling based on weather-type); 4) Stochastic simulation of the present climate; 5) Marine climate downscaling under climate change scenarios (selecting the best GCMs from CMIP5, Pérez et al., 2014b). References: Perez, J., Menéndez, M., Méndez, F.J., Losada, I.J. (2014a). Evaluating the performance of CMIP3 and CMIP5 global climate models over the north-east Atlantic region, Climate Dynamics, DOI 10.1007/s00382-014-2078-8. Perez, J., Menéndez, M., Méndez, F.J., Losada, I.J. (2014b) ESTELA: A method for evaluating the source and travel-time of the wave energy reaching a local area. Ocean Dynamics, DOI 10

  15. Microbial Community Dynamics from Permafrost Across the Pleistocene-Holocene Boundary and Response to Abrupt Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hammad, A.; Mahony, M.; Froese, D. G.; Lanoil, B. D.

    2014-12-01

    Earth is currently undergoing rapid warming similar to that observed about 10,000 years ago at the end of the Pleistocene. We know a considerable amount about the adaptations and extinctions of mammals and plants at the Pleistocene/Holocene (P/H) boundary, but relatively little about changes at the microbial level. Due to permafrost soils' freezing anoxic conditions, they act as microbial diversity archives allowing us to determine how microbial communities adapted to the abrupt warming at the end of P. Since microbial community composition only helps differentiate viable and extant microorganisms in frozen permafrost, microbial activity in thawing permafrost must be investigated to provide a clear understanding of microbial response to climate change. Current increased temperatures will result in warming and potential thaw of permafrost and release of stored organic carbon, freeing it for microbial utilization; turning permafrost into a carbon source. Studying permafrost viable microbial communities' diversity and activity will provide a better understanding of how these microorganisms respond to soil edaphic variability due to climate change across the P/H boundary, providing insight into the changes that the soil community is currently undergoing in this modern era of rapid climate change. Modern soil, H and P permafrost cores were collected from Lucky Lady II site outside Dawson City, Yukon. 16S rRNA high throughput sequencing of permafrost DNA showed the same trends for total and viable community richness and diversity with both decreasing with permafrost depth and only the richness increasing in mid and early P. The modern, H and P soils had 50.9, 33.9, and 27.3% unique viable species and only 14% of the total number of viable species were shared by all soils. Gas flux measurements of thawed permafrost showed metabolic activity in modern and permafrost soils, aerobic CH­­4 consumption in modern, some H and P soils, and anaerobic CH­­4 production in one H

  16. Abrupt changes in rainfall during the twentieth century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Narisma, Gemma T.; Foley, Jonathan A.; Licker, Rachel; Ramankutty, Navin

    2007-03-01

    Complex interactions in the climate system can give rise to strong positive feedback mechanisms that may lead to sudden climatic changes. The prolonged Sahel drought and the Dust Bowl are examples of 20th century abrupt climatic changes that had serious effects on ecosystems and societies. Here we analyze global historical rainfall observations to detect regions that have undergone large, sudden decreases in rainfall. Our results show that in the 20th century about 30 regions in the world have experienced such changes. These events are statistically significant at the 99% level, are persistent for at least ten years, and most have magnitudes of change that are 10% lower than the climatological normal (1901-2000 rainfall average). This analysis illustrates the extent and magnitude of abrupt climate changes across the globe during the 20th century and may be used for studying the dynamics of and the mechanisms behind these abrupt changes.

  17. Fluvial system response to abrupt climate change: sedimentary record example of the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) in the South-Pyrenean foreland basin, Spain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Chen; Castelltort, Sebastien; Foreman, Brady; Hassenruck-Gudipati, Hima J.

    2015-04-01

    The "Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum" (PETM), is understood to be an extreme and short-lived (ca.150-220kya) global warming event that occurred 55.8 million years ago and during which global annual temperatures are estimated to have increased by ca. 5-8°C, with respect to sea surface temperatures and ca. 4-5°C, with respect to the deep sea. A remaining outstanding question is: in addition to the global increase in temperature, how was precipitation perturbed during the event, and how did fluvial surface processes respond to the perturbation? In the southern Spanish Pyrenees, the Paleocene succession of the Tremp-Graus Basin is made up of the Talarn (Danian) and Esplugafreda (Thanetian) red bed formations. The Esplugafreda section is composed of approximately 250m of reddish paleosols and contains numerous lenticular bodies of calcareous conglomerates, which are interpreted as braided channels. The Esplugafreda Formation is overlain by the Claret Conglomerate -- an extensive sheet-like unit which ranges in thickness between 1m and 4m of clast-supported calcareous conglomerate and pebbly calcarenites and is interpreted as marking the fluvial response to a dramatic climate change, in the form of the transformation of a braided river and floodplain system into an enormous conglomeratic braided plain (formed over at least 2000km2 conservatively) due to dramatic change in the hydrologic cycle. The conglomerate unit ends abruptly and is overlaid by fine-grained yellowish soils which are mainly made up of silty mudstones with abundant small size carbonate nodules suggesting another shift in the hydrological cycle after the PETM. Here we present paleo-channel geometry and grain size data collected in the southern Pyrenees (Tremp, Aren, and Serraduy sections) that we invert to reconstruct paleoflow conditions during the Paleocene and during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Event. We confront paleohydraulic results with sea level, isotope and lithological records in order to

  18. A high-resolution lake sediment record of glacier activity from SE Greenland defines abrupt Holocene cooling events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balascio, N. L.; Bradley, R. S.; D'Andrea, W. J.

    2013-12-01

    Orbital driven changes in high latitude summer insolation during the Holocene are responsible for the primary millennial-scale climate trends in the Arctic. Following deglaciation, maximum summer temperatures generally occurred during the early to mid-Holocene and declined through the late Holocene. Superimposed on this gradual cooling trend are centennial- and decadal-scale intervals that indicate more rapid perturbations of the arctic climate system. Highly resolved sedimentary records from terrestrial and marine sites help to better characterize climate system dynamics during the Holocene and investigate forcing and feedback mechanism that operate on different timescales. Reconstructing glacial activity can provide valuable paleoclimate information about trends in summer temperature and/or winter precipitation. Proglacial lakes contain sediment archives of meltwater input from glaciers and typically have high sedimentation rates preserving detailed information on glacial activity. However, interpreting proglacial sedimentary records can be difficult because 1) there may be significant input of sediment from non-glacial sources, 2) there is often a lack of organic material for radiocarbon dating, and 3) not all glaciers are sensitive to rapid climatic changes. Here we present a c. 10 cal ka BP record of glacier activity from Kulusuk Lake (65.6°N, 37.1°W; 202 m a.s.l.), a proglacial lake in southeast Greenland that is well constrained by radiocarbon dates and shows a clear signal of changes in glacial input throughout the Holocene. Kulusuk Lake is presently fed by meltwater from two cirque glaciers. It has a small catchment and no other significant source of sediment input. A 3.5 m sediment core contains distinct lithologic changes defined by grain size, magnetic susceptibility, organic content, and scanning XRF data. During the early Holocene, an overall decrease in meltwater input from 8.7-7.7 ka indicates the retreat of the glaciers in response to regional

  19. Prehistoric land use and Neolithisation in Europe in the context of regional climate events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lemmen, C.; Wirtz, K. W.; Gronenborn, D.

    2009-04-01

    We present a simple, adaptation-driven, spatially explicit model of pre-Bronze age socio-technological change, called the Global Land Use and Technological Evolution Simulator (GLUES). The socio-technological realm is described by three characteristic traits: available technology, subsistence style ratio, and economic diversity. Human population and culture develop in the context of global paleoclimate and regional paleoclimate events. Global paleoclimate is derived from CLIMBER-2 Earth System Model anomalies superimposed on the IIASA temperature and precipitation database. Regional a forcing is provided by abrupt climate deteriorations from a compilation of 138 long-term high-resolution climate proxy time series from mostly terrestrial and near-shore archives. The GLUES simulator provides for a novel way to explore the interplay between climate, climate change, and cultural evolution both on the Holocene timescale as well as for short-term extreme event periods. We sucessfully simulate the migration of people and the diffusion of Neolithic technology from the Near East into Europe in the period 12000-4000 a BP. We find good agreement with recent archeological compilations of Western Eurasian Neolithic sites. No causal relationship between climate events and cultural evolution could be identified, but the speed of cultural development is found to be modulated by the frequency of climate events. From the demographic evolution and regional ressource consumption, we estimate regional land use change and prehistoric greenhouse gas emissions.

  20. Bayesian analysis for extreme climatic events: A review

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chu, Pao-Shin; Zhao, Xin

    2011-11-01

    This article reviews Bayesian analysis methods applied to extreme climatic data. We particularly focus on applications to three different problems related to extreme climatic events including detection of abrupt regime shifts, clustering tropical cyclone tracks, and statistical forecasting for seasonal tropical cyclone activity. For identifying potential change points in an extreme event count series, a hierarchical Bayesian framework involving three layers - data, parameter, and hypothesis - is formulated to demonstrate the posterior probability of the shifts throughout the time. For the data layer, a Poisson process with a gamma distributed rate is presumed. For the hypothesis layer, multiple candidate hypotheses with different change-points are considered. To calculate the posterior probability for each hypothesis and its associated parameters we developed an exact analytical formula, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, and a more sophisticated reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) algorithm. The algorithms are applied to several rare event series: the annual tropical cyclone or typhoon counts over the central, eastern, and western North Pacific; the annual extremely heavy rainfall event counts at Manoa, Hawaii; and the annual heat wave frequency in France. Using an Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm, a Bayesian clustering method built on a mixture Gaussian model is applied to objectively classify historical, spaghetti-like tropical cyclone tracks (1945-2007) over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea into eight distinct track types. A regression based approach to forecasting seasonal tropical cyclone frequency in a region is developed. Specifically, by adopting large-scale environmental conditions prior to the tropical cyclone season, a Poisson regression model is built for predicting seasonal tropical cyclone counts, and a probit regression model is alternatively developed toward a binary classification problem. With a non

  1. Climate-driven shifts in continental net primary production implicated as a driver of a recent abrupt increase in the land carbon sink

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buermann, Wolfgang; Beaulieu, Claudie; Parida, Bikash; Medvigy, David; Collatz, George J.; Sheffield, Justin; Sarmiento, Jorge L.

    2016-03-01

    The world's ocean and land ecosystems act as sinks for anthropogenic CO2, and over the last half century their combined sink strength grew steadily with increasing CO2 emissions. Recent analyses of the global carbon budget, however, have uncovered an abrupt, substantial ( ˜ 1 PgC yr-1) and sustained increase in the land sink in the late 1980s whose origin remains unclear. In the absence of this prominent shift in the land sink, increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations since the late 1980s would have been ˜ 30 % larger than observed (or ˜ 12 ppm above current levels). Global data analyses are limited in regards to attributing causes to changes in the land sink because different regions are likely responding to different drivers. Here, we address this challenge by using terrestrial biosphere models constrained by observations to determine if there is independent evidence for the abrupt strengthening of the land sink. We find that net primary production significantly increased in the late 1980s (more so than heterotrophic respiration), consistent with the inferred increase in the global land sink, and that large-scale climate anomalies are responsible for this shift. We identify two key regions in which climatic constraints on plant growth have eased: northern Eurasia experienced warming, and northern Africa received increased precipitation. Whether these changes in continental climates are connected is uncertain, but North Atlantic climate variability is important. Our findings suggest that improved understanding of climate variability in the North Atlantic may be essential for more credible projections of the land sink under climate change.

  2. Climate Extreme Events over Northern Eurasia in Changing Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bulygina, O.; Korshunova, N. N.; Razuvaev, V. N.; Groisman, P. Y.

    2014-12-01

    During the period of widespread instrumental observations in Northern Eurasia, the annual surface air temperature has increased by 1.5°C. Close to the north in the Arctic Ocean, the late summer sea ice extent has decreased by 40% providing a near-infinite source of water vapor for the dry Arctic atmosphere in the early cold season months. The contemporary sea ice changes are especially visible in the Eastern Hemisphere All these factors affect the change extreme events. Daily and sub-daily data of 940 stations to analyze variations in the space time distribution of extreme temperatures, precipitation, and wind over Russia were used. Changing in number of days with thaw over Russia was described. The total seasonal numbers of days, when daily surface air temperatures (wind, precipitation) were found to be above (below) selected thresholds, were used as indices of climate extremes. Changing in difference between maximum and minimum temperature (DTR) may produce a variety of effects on biological systems. All values falling within the intervals ranged from the lowest percentile to the 5th percentile and from the 95th percentile to the highest percentile for the time period of interest were considered as daily extremes. The number of days, N, when daily temperatures (wind, precipitation, DTR) were within the above mentioned intervals, was determined for the seasons of each year. Linear trends in the number of days were calculated for each station and for quasi-homogeneous climatic regions. Regional analysis of extreme events was carried out using quasi-homogeneous climatic regions. Maps (climatology, trends) are presented mostly for visualization purposes. Differences in regional characteristics of extreme events are accounted for over a large extent of the Russian territory and variety of its physical and geographical conditions. The number of days with maximum temperatures higher than the 95% percentile has increased in most of Russia and decreased in Siberia in

  3. Public perceptions of climate change and extreme weather events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bruine de Bruin, W.; Dessai, S.; Morgan, G.; Taylor, A.; Wong-Parodi, G.

    2013-12-01

    Climate experts face a serious communication challenge. Public debate about climate change continues, even though at the same time people seem to complain about extreme weather events becoming increasingly common. As compared to the abstract concept of ';climate change,' (changes in) extreme weather events are indeed easier to perceive, more vivid, and personally relevant. Public perception research in different countries has suggested that people commonly expect that climate change will lead to increases in temperature, and that unseasonably warm weather is likely to be interpreted as evidence of climate change. However, relatively little is known about whether public concerns about climate change may also be driven by changes in other types of extreme weather events, such as exceptional amounts of precipitation or flooding. We therefore examined how perceptions of and personal experiences with changes in these specific weather events are related to public concerns about climate change. In this presentation, we will discuss findings from two large public perception surveys conducted in flood-prone Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (US) and with a national sample in the UK, where extreme flooding has recently occurred across the country. Participants completed questions about their perceptions of and experiences with specific extreme weather events, and their beliefs about climate change. We then conducted linear regressions to predict individual differences in climate-change beliefs, using perceptions of and experiences with specific extreme weather events as predictors, while controlling for demographic characteristics. The US study found that people (a) perceive flood chances to be increasing over the decades, (b) believe climate change to play a role in increases in future flood chances, and (c) would interpret future increases in flooding as evidence for climate change. The UK study found that (a) UK residents are more likely to perceive increases in ';wet' events such

  4. Annual proxy data from Lago Grande di Monticchio (southern Italy) contributing to chronological constraints and abrupt climatic oscillations between 76 and 112 ka

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martin-Puertas, C.; Brauer, A.; Wulf, S.; Ott, F.; Lauterbach, S.; Dulski, P.

    2014-06-01

    We present annual sedimentological proxies and sub-annual element scanner data from the Lago Grande di Monticchio (MON) sediment record for the sequence 76-112 ka, which, combined with the decadal to centennial resolved pollen assemblage, allow a comprehensive reconstruction of six major abrupt cold and relatively humid spells (MON 1-6) in the central Mediterranean during early phase of the last glaciation. These climatic oscillations are defined by intervals of thicker varves and high Ti-counts and coincide with episodes of forest depletion interpreted as cold and wet oscillations. Based on the independent and slightly revised MON-2014 varve chronology (76-112 ka), a detailed comparison with the Greenland ice-core δ18O record (NGRIP) and northern Alps speleothem δ18O data (NALPS) is presented. Based on visual inspection of major changes in the proxy data, MON 2-6 are suggested to correlate with GS 25-20. MON 1 (Woillard event), the first and shortest cooling spell in the Mediterranean after a long phase of stable interglacial conditions, has no counterpart in the Greenland ice core, but coincides with the lowest isotope values at the end of the gradual decrease in δ18O in NGRIP during the second half of the GI 25. MON 3 is the least pronounced cold spell and shows gradual transitions, whereas its NGRIP counterpart GS 24 is characterized by sharp changes in the isotope records. MON 2 and MON 4 are the longest most pronounced oscillations in the MON sediments in good agreement with their counterparts in the ice and spelethem records. The length of MON 4 (correlating with GS 22) support the duration of this stadial proposed by the NALPS timescales and suggests ca. 500 yr longer duration than calculated by GICC05 and AICC2012, which would confirm a~possible underestimation in the ice-core. Absolute dating of the cold spells occurring from 112 to 100 ka (MON 1-3) in the MON-2014 chronology is in good agreement with the GICC05 and NALPS timescales but the younger

  5. Annual proxy data from Lago Grande di Monticchio (southern Italy) between 76 and 112 ka: new chronological constraints and insights on abrupt climatic oscillations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martin-Puertas, C.; Brauer, A.; Wulf, S.; Ott, F.; Lauterbach, S.; Dulski, P.

    2014-12-01

    We present new annual sedimentological proxies and sub-annual element scanner data from the Lago Grande di Monticchio (MON) sediment record for the sequence 76-112 thousand years before present (ka). They are combined with the previously published decadal to centennial resolved pollen assemblage in order to provide a comprehensive reconstruction of six major abrupt stadial spells (MON 1-6) in the central Mediterranean during the early phase of the last glaciation. These climatic oscillations are defined by intervals of thicker varves and high Ti-counts and coincide with episodes of forest depletion interpreted as Mediterranean stadial conditions (cold winter/dry summer). Our chronology, labelled as MON-2014, has been updated for the study interval by tephrochronology and repeated and more precise varve counts and is independent from ice-core and speleothem chronologies. The high-resolution Monticchio data then have been compared in detail with the Greenland ice-core δ18O record (NorthGRIP) and the northern Alps speleothem δ18Ocalcite data (NALPS). Based on visual inspection of major changes in the proxy data, MON 2-6 are suggested to correlate with Greenland stadials (GS) 25-20. MON 1 (Woillard event), the first and shortest cooling spell in the Mediterranean after a long phase of stable interglacial conditions, has no counterpart in the Greenland ice core, but coincides with the lowest isotope values at the end of the gradual decrease in δ18Oice in NorthGRIP during the second half of the Greenland interstadial (GI) 25. MON 3 is the least pronounced cold spell and shows gradual transitions, whereas its NorthGRIP counterpart GS 24 is characterized by sharp changes in the isotope records. MON 2 and MON 4 are the longest and most pronounced oscillations in the MON sediments in good agreement with their counterparts identified in the ice and spelethem records. The length of MON 4 (correlating with GS 22) supports the duration of stadial proposed by the NALPS

  6. Not Just the 8.2 event: Dynamic Early Holocene Climate in Arctic Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Axford, Y.; Briner, J. P.; Miller, G. H.; Francis, D. R.

    2006-12-01

    Temperature reconstructions from a lake in the eastern Canadian Arctic indicate that peak warmth in the early Holocene was interrupted by two abrupt, short-lived temperature reversals at ~9.l and ~8.5 ka. Summer temperatures at Lake CF8, Baffin Island (~500 km west of Greenland) are inferred from subfossil midge (Chironomidae) assemblages. Our results indicate that the site, like others on Baffin Island, experienced exceptionally warm summers (almost 5°C warmer than present) through much of the early Holocene, presumably in response to enhanced summer insolation. After 1000 years of very warm, stable climate, warmth was interrupted by two discrete cold reversals at ~9.1 and ~8.5 ka, during which multiple cold-stenothermous midge taxa appeared in the lake and summer temperatures dropped more than 3°C. These two clearly-defined reversals, well beyond the range of background variability, were of similar amplitude and duration, and were separated by several centuries of near-peak warmth. The only Holocene events of comparable amplitude at this site are the rapid onset of Holocene warmth, and the more gradual Neoglacial cooling after 8 ka. Abrupt cooling events over the Baffin region are consistent with model simulations of the impacts of freshwater outbursts into the Labrador Sea, such as the Lake Agassiz outburst flood that occurred ~8.4 ka. That there are two discrete events recorded at this site indicates that the "8.2 event" was not uniquely significant in this region; rather, the period between approximately ~9.2 and 8 ka was characterized by repeated climate fluctuations forced by multiple outburst floods or other mechanisms. Thus global correlations among paleoclimate records need not assume that climate perturbations during this time period necessarily correlate with the draining of Lake Agassiz or the 8.2 ka cooling in central Greenland.

  7. Nonglacial rapid climate events: past and future.

    PubMed

    Overpeck, J; Webb, R

    2000-02-15

    The paleoclimate record makes it clear that rapid climate shifts of the 20th century are only a subset of possible climate system behavior that might occur in the absence of glacial conditions, and that climatic surprises could be a challenge for society even in the absence of significant greenhouse warming. PMID:10677461

  8. Nonglacial rapid climate events: Past and future

    PubMed Central

    Overpeck, Jonathan; Webb, Robert

    2000-01-01

    The paleoclimate record makes it clear that rapid climate shifts of the 20th century are only a subset of possible climate system behavior that might occur in the absence of glacial conditions, and that climatic surprises could be a challenge for society even in the absence of significant greenhouse warming. PMID:10677461

  9. EARLY CAREER: THE HAZARDS OF EXTREME CLIMATIC EVENTS: PREDICTING IMPACTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    One of the greatest threats to water quality is water-borne pathogens, which are more common now than they have been historically. A factor implicated in the emergence of water-borne diseases is climate change-driven increases in extreme climatic events. Although climatic e...

  10. Abrupt Changes in the Marmara Pelagic Ecosystem during the recent jellyfish Liriope tetraphylla invasion and mucilage events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Erkan Kideys, Ahmet; Yüksek, Ahsen; Sur, Halil Ibrahim

    2013-04-01

    In this study, meteorological and hydrographical conditions as well as chemical and biological parameters have been examined for the period 2005-2009 to determine the impact and cause of the massive mucilage phenomenon observed in the Sea of Marmara in October 2007. Results showed that there is a decrease pattern in chl concentration as well as both phytoplankton and zooplankton abundances from August till October in 2007 whilst the jellyfish Liriope tetraphylla had bloom levels. This period coincided with the maximum intensity of pelagic fishing throughout the years. Nitrogen/phosphate ratio increased prior to the mucilage formation. Invasive Liriope tetraphylla abundance increased exponentially in August and died in masses as a result of starvation and meteorological / oceanographic conditions. In October, following the mucilage matter production another new species for the region Gonyaulax fragilis was observed in high abundance through the basin. It is worthy to note that during basin wide samplings conducted in the Sea of Marmara in both 2005 and 2006, high abundances of Liriope tetraphylla have been detected particularly at the northern parts where no mucilage event was observed. We suggest that overfishing in the Sea of Marmara provided a ground for the establishment of the invasive jellyfish and accompanying mucilage event was due to by synergic combinations of several factors.

  11. Neanderthal and Anatomically Modern Human interaction with Abrupt Late Pleistocene Environments - the data is finally good enough to talk about climate change!

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blockley, Simon; Schreve, Danielle

    2015-04-01

    The timing and nature of the appearance of Anatomically Modern Humans (AMH) in Europe, their interaction with, and eventual morphological replacement of Neanderthals (despite some shared genetic heritage) has been a matter of intense debate within archaeology for a generation. This period, often termed the Middle to Upper Palaeolithic transition occurs in the latter part of Marine Isotope Stage Three and in recent decades archaeological interest has been complemented by the input of palaeoclimate scientists, over the role of abrupt climate change in this process. This was due to the recognition from ice core and marine proxy archives, in particular, of periods if intense cooling, correlated to the marine record of Heinrich ice rafted debris layers from the Atlantic. As a result of these collaborations between the archaeological and palaeoenvironmental communities various drivers have been proposed for the Middle to Upper Palaeolithic Transition that include: (1) resource competition between two species occupying similar niches; (2) the impact of repeated cycles of Heinrich event cooling, leading to the decline and eventual disappearance of the Neanderthal populations, leaving a new region open for AMH exploitation; and (3) catastrophic impacts of large volcanic eruptions on Neanderthal populations. Attempts to address the above hypotheses have been dogged by the chronological precision available for a number of key archives. The accuracy of many of the radiocarbon ages that underpin the chronology for both Neanderthal and AMH archaeological sites has been questioned1. This has been exacerbated by uncertainties over the influence of variability in the radiocarbon marine reservoir effect on marine palaeoclimate records and a marine dominated radiocarbon calibration curve. Additionally, the counting uncertainties of the master Greenland palaeoclimate archives are also large by this time, meaning palaeoclimate interpretation can be equivocal. However, several research

  12. Abrupt State Change in Spatially-Patterned Subalpine Forests in Northern Colorado During the Medieval Climate Anomaly

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calder, W. J.; Shuman, B. N.

    2014-12-01

    Spatial patterns in many ecosystems arise from feedbacks associated with the potential for critical transitions and multiple stable states. Such systems may be susceptible to abrupt change, which could be indicated by early-warning signals, such as critical slowing down (increasingly long recovery from perturbation as a threshold approaches). Paleoecological data from ribbon forests, a type of subalpine parkland found in the Rocky Mountains, offer an opportunity to test these hypotheses. The forests consist of alternating strips of forest and meadow that form because bands of Picea and Abies trees act as snow fences with large snowdrifts forming on their lee sides. Drifts provide moisture for the adjacent trees, but also increase seedling mortality and shorten the growing season where drifts accumulate. The feedbacks between forest growth and snow accumulation maintain the ribbon forest-meadow pattern, and raise the potential for abrupt change if the feedbacks breakdown in response to factors like drought or fire. Our fossil pollen data from Summit Lake, located on the Continental Divide in the Park Range, northern Colorado, indicate that a closed forest transitioned rapidly to a ribbon forest state at ca. 1000 BP. Artemisia pollen increased (20 to 35%) and Picea and Abies pollen decreased (25 to 15%) within a century or less after a pair of charcoal peaks. Decreased charcoal influx (from 0.6 to 0.4 pieces/cm2/yr) and fire frequency (from 4.5 to 1.5 fires/ka) coincided with the pollen assemblage changes, and is consistent with decreased landscape biomass and fuel connectivity. Initial analyses show evidence of critical slowing down before the state change. After eight of eleven fires recorded by peaks in charcoal accumulation, Artemisia pollen percentages rise to a peak consistent with brief opening of the initially forested landscape. After 2000 BP, the magnitude and duration of the post-fire changes increases until no recovery is recorded after the shift at 1000

  13. The fluvial system response to abrupt climate change during the last cold stage: the Upper Pleistocene River Thames fluvial succession at Ashton Keynes, UK

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lewis, S. G.; Maddy, D.; Scaife, R. G.

    2001-02-01

    The last interglacial-glacial cycle (125-10 ka BP) is characterised by numerous rapid shifts in global climate on sub-Milankovitch timescales, recorded in the ocean and ice core records. These climatic fluctuations are clearly recorded in those European terrestrial sedimentary sequences that span this time period without interruption. In the UK, only fragmentary Upper Pleistocene sequences exist, mainly within the fluvial archive of the major river systems such as the Thames. The response of the upper River Thames to abrupt fluctuations in climate is documented in the fluvial sediments beneath the Floodplain Terrace (Northmoor Member of the Upper Thames Formation) at Ashton Keynes, Wiltshire. A number of criteria are set out by which significant changes in the fluvial system may be established from the sedimentological, palaeoecological and geochronological information contained within the succession. The sedimentary succession is divisible into four facies associations, on the basis of their sedimentology and bounding surface characteristics. These represent distinct phases of fluvial activity at the site and allow changes in fluvial style to be inferred. Palaeoecological reconstructions from pollen analysis of peats within the sequence provides an indication of the nature and direction of Late Glacial environmental change and optically stimulated luminescence and radiocarbon dating methods provide chronological control on the sequence. These data suggest that major changes in fluvial style are recorded within the succession, which can be related to the climatic fluctuations that took place on the oxygen isotope stage 5a/4 transition (approximately 70 ka BP) and the Devensian Late Glacial climatic warm-cold-warm oscillation (13-11 ka BP). The changes in fluvial style are a result of variations in sediment supply to the river resulting from changes in slope stability, vegetation cover and cold-climate mass movement processes and variations in discharge regime

  14. Have abrupt climate variations of the last glacial possibly been muted in the south-west African tropics by counteracting mechanisms?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hessler, I.; Dupont, L.; Handiani, D.; Steinke, S.; Groeneveld, J.; Merkel, U.; Paul, A.

    2012-04-01

    The last glacial period including the last deglaciation (73.5-10 ka BP) is characterised by abrupt shifts between extreme climatic conditions. Millennial-scale climate variations associated with North Atlantic Heinrich Stadials (HSs) are thought to be transmitted by both the atmospheric and oceanic circulation resulting in a near-global footprint. It is further thought that HSs are closely related to a reduction or shut-down of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which, according to the bipolar-seesaw hypothesis, leads to the accumulation of heat in the South Atlantic. In addition, it is hypothesised that HSs result in a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone which then would likely influence the vegetation composition in the African tropics. To investigate the impact of HSs on the terrestrial African realm and the south-east Atlantic we reconstructed the vegetation development in Angola and the southern Congo Basin as well as the sea surface temperatures (SST) of the south-east Atlantic using marine sediments of ODP Site 1078 (11° 55'S, 13° 24'E, 427 m water depth). Two species of planktonic foraminifera were selected to reconstruct variations in surface water conditions in the south-east Atlantic. Due the ecological and seasonal preferences of Globigerinoides ruber (pink) this species provides a good tool to estimate SST variations during the southern hemisphere summer. In contrast, Globigerina bulloides is representing the Benguela Upwelling System during the southern hemisphere winter. While Mg/Ca-based SSTs of G. ruber (pink) were significantly higher by 1° -2° C during periods of abrupt climate change, the impact of HSs during southern hemisphere winter is less obvious. However, although there are several vegetation records that show an impact of HSs in the African tropics, our high-resolution pollen record from ODP Site 1078 reflects no vegetation changes during periods of HSs. Model simulations conducted with an Earth System

  15. Tropical climate and vegetation changes during Heinrich Event 1: a model-data comparison

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Handiani, D.; Paul, A.; Dupont, L.

    2012-01-01

    Abrupt climate changes from 18 to 15 thousand years before present (kyr BP) associated with Heinrich Event 1 (HE1) had a strong impact on vegetation patterns not only at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, but also in the tropical regions around the Atlantic Ocean. To gain a better understanding of the linkage between high and low latitudes, we used the University of Victoria (UVic) Earth System-Climate Model (ESCM) with dynamical vegetation and land surface components to simulate four scenarios of climate-vegetation interaction: the pre-industrial era, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and a Heinrich-like event with two different climate backgrounds (interglacial and glacial). We calculated mega-biomes from the plant-functional types (PFTs) generated by the model to allow for a direct comparison between model results and palynological vegetation reconstructions. Our calculated mega-biomes for the pre-industrial period and the LGM corresponded well with biome reconstructions of the modern and LGM time slices, respectively, except that our pre-industrial simulation predicted the dominance of grassland in southern Europe and our LGM simulation resulted in more forest cover in tropical and sub-tropical South America. The HE1-like simulation with a glacial climate background produced sea-surface temperature patterns and enhanced inter-hemispheric thermal gradients in accordance with the "bipolar seesaw" hypothesis. We found that the cooling of the Northern Hemisphere caused a southward shift of those PFTs that are indicative of an increased desertification and a retreat of broadleaf forests in West Africa and northern South America. The mega-biomes from our HE1 simulation agreed well with paleovegetation data from tropical Africa and northern South America. Thus, according to our model-data comparison, the reconstructed vegetation changes for the tropical regions around the Atlantic Ocean were physically consistent with the remote effects of a Heinrich event under

  16. Abrupt change of the mid-summer climate in central east China by the influence of atmospheric pollution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Qun

    Following the great flooding of summer 1998, the mid-lower Yangtze Basin further suffered from another large flooding in summer 1999. Successive droughts through 3 recent summers (1997-1999) appeared in north China in addition, leading to an abnormal summer climate pattern of "north drought with south flooding". Such southward move of the summer monsoon rainy belt in east China started in the late 1970s-early 1980s. Its main cause may not be a purely natural climate change, but the acceleration of industrialization in east China could play a major role by emitting large volumes of SO 2, especially from the rapidly growing rural factories of east China. The annual release of SO 2 in China exceeded 20 Tg during 1992-1998, so dense sulfate aerosols covered the central east China which significantly reduced the sunlight. Although present estimates for the changes of clear sky global solar radiation may include some error, they show that the negative radiative forcing of sulfate aerosols in central east China by far exceeds the effect of greenhouse warming in summer. Hence the mid-summer monsoon rainy belt of east China has a trend moving southward in 21 recent years (1979-1999), showing the very sensitive characteristic of the summer monsoon system to the change in heat equilibrium of the land surface. The occurrence rate of summer climate pattern of "north drought with south flooding" in east China during 21 recent years is the largest since AD 950; such anomalous climate has brought large losses to China. The only possible way to reverse this southward trend of summer monsoon rainy belt is to significantly reduce air pollution by using more clean energy. Recently, the PRC has paid serious attention to this problem by adopting a series of countermeasures.

  17. Lateglacial/early Holocene fluvial reactions of the Jeetzel river (Elbe valley, northern Germany) to abrupt climatic and environmental changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turner, Falko; Tolksdorf, Johann Friedrich; Viehberg, Finn; Schwalb, Antje; Kaiser, Knut; Bittmann, Felix; von Bramann, Ullrich; Pott, Richard; Staesche, Ulrich; Breest, Klaus; Veil, Stephan

    2013-01-01

    Mechanisms of climatic control on river system development are still only partially known. Palaeohydrological investigations from river valleys often lack a precise chronological control of climatic processes and fluvial dynamics, which is why their specific forces remain unclear. In this multidisciplinary case study from the middle Elbe river valley (northern Germany) multiple dating of sites (palynostratigraphy, radiocarbon- and OSL-dating) and high-resolution analyses of environmental and climatological proxies (pollen, plant macro-remains and ostracods) reveal a continuous record of the environmental and fluvial history from the Lateglacial to the early Holocene. Biostratigraphical correlation to northwest European key sites shows that river system development was partially out of phase with the main climatic shifts. The transition from a braided to an incised channel system predated the main phase of Lateglacial warming (˜14.6 ka BP), and the meandering river did not change its drainage pattern during the cooling of the Younger-Dryas period. Environmental reconstructions suggest that river dynamics were largely affected by vegetation cover, as a vegetation cover consisting of herbs, dwarf-shrubs and a few larger shrubs seems to have developed before the onset of the main Lateglacial warming, and pine forests appear to have persisted in the river valley during the Younger Dryas. In addition, two phases of high fluvial activity and new channel incision during the middle part of the Younger Dryas and during the Boreal were correlated with changes from dry towards wet climatic conditions, as indicated by evident lake level rises. Lateglacial human occupation in the river valley, which is shown by numerous Palaeolithic sites, forming one of the largest settlement areas of that period known in the European Plain, is assigned to the specific fluvial and environmental conditions of the early Allerød.

  18. Evidence of resilience to past climate change in Southwest Asia: Early farming communities and the 9.2 and 8.2 ka events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Flohr, Pascal; Fleitmann, Dominik; Matthews, Roger; Matthews, Wendy; Black, Stuart

    2016-03-01

    Climate change is often cited as a major factor in social change. The so-called 8.2 ka event was one of the most pronounced and abrupt Holocene cold and arid events. The 9.2 ka event was similar, albeit of a smaller magnitude. Both events affected the Northern Hemisphere climate and caused cooling and aridification in Southwest Asia. Yet, the impacts of the 8.2 and 9.2 ka events on early farming communities in this region are not well understood. Current hypotheses for an effect of the 8.2 ka event vary from large-scale site abandonment and migration (including the Neolithisation of Europe) to continuation of occupation and local adaptation, while impacts of the 9.2 ka have not previously been systematically studied. In this paper, we present a thorough assessment of available, quality-checked radiocarbon (14C) dates for sites from Southwest Asia covering the time interval between 9500 and 7500 cal BP, which we interpret in combination with archaeological evidence. In this way, the synchronicity between changes observed in the archaeological record and the rapid climate events is tested. It is shown that there is no evidence for a simultaneous and widespread collapse, large-scale site abandonment, or migration at the time of the events. However, there are indications for local adaptation. We conclude that early farming communities were resilient to the abrupt, severe climate changes at 9250 and 8200 cal BP.

  19. Financial market response to extreme events indicating climatic change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anttila-Hughes, J. K.

    2016-05-01

    A variety of recent extreme climatic events are considered to be strong evidence that the climate is warming, but these incremental advances in certainty often seem ignored by non-scientists. I identify two unusual types of events that are considered to be evidence of climate change, announcements by NASA that the global annual average temperature has set a new record, and the sudden collapse of major polar ice shelves, and then conduct an event study to test whether news of these events changes investors' valuation of energy companies, a subset of firms whose future performance is closely tied to climate change. I find evidence that both classes of events have influenced energy stock prices since the 1990s, with record temperature announcements on average associated with negative returns and ice shelf collapses associated with positive returns. I identify a variety of plausible mechanisms that may be driving these differential responses, discuss implications for energy markets' views on long-term regulatory risk, and conclude that investors not only pay attention to scientifically significant climate events, but discriminate between signals carrying different information about the nature of climatic change.

  20. The Nonlinear Response of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean-Atmosphere System to Periodic Variations in Insolation and its Association with the Abrupt Climate Transitions during the Quaternary.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lopes, P. G.

    2015-12-01

    The evidences of climate changes during the Quaternary are abundant but the physical mechanisms behind the climate transitions are controversial. The theory of Milankovitch takes into account the periodic orbital variations and the solar radiation received by the Earth as the main explanation for the glacial-interglacial cycles. However, some gaps in the theory still remain. In this study, we propose elucidating some of these gaps by approaching the Equatorial Pacific Ocean as a large oscillator, capable of triggering climate changes in different temporal scales. A mathematical model representing El Ninõ-like phenomena, based on Duffing equation and modulated by the astronomical cycle of 100 ka, was used to simulate the variability of the equatorial Pacific climate system over the last 2 Ma. The physical configuration of the Pacific Ocean, expressed in the equation, explains the temporal limit of the glacial-interglacial cycles. According to the simulation results, consistent with paleoclimate records, the amplification of the effects of the gradual variation of the Earth's orbit eccentricity - another unclear question - is due to the feedback mechanism of the Pacific ocean-atmosphere system, which responds non-linearly to small variations in insolation forcing and determines the ENSO-like phase (warm or cold) at different time scales and different intensities. The approach proposed here takes into account that the abrupt transitions between the ENSO-like phases, and the consequent changes in the sea surface temperature (SST) along the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, produce reactions that act as secondary causes of the temperature fluctuations that result in a glaciation (or deglaciation) - as the drastic change on the rate of evaporation/precipitation around the globe, and the increase (or decrease) of the atmospheric CO2 absorption by the phytoplankton. The transitional behavior between the warm and the cold phases, according to the presented model, is enhanced as

  1. The complex behavior of the Cordilleran Ice Sheet and mountain glaciers to abrupt climate change during the latest Pleistocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Menounos, Brian; Goehring, Brent; Osborn, Gerald; Clarke, Garry K. C.; Ward, Brent; Margold, Martin; Bond, Jeff; Clague, John J.; Lakeman, Tom; Schaefer, Joerg; Koch, Joe; Gosse, John; Stroeven, Arjen P.; Seguinot, Julien; Heyman, Jakob; Fulton, Robert

    2014-05-01

    Surficial mapping and more than 70 radiometric ages 10Be, 14C] constrain the evolution of the Cordilleran Ice Sheet (CIS) and associated mountain glaciers in western Canada during the latest Pleistocene. Our data suggest that: i) there is widespread evidence for the Younger Dryas (YD) throughout the mountains of western Canada; ii) late Pleistocene climate reconstructions based solely on alpine moraines may be misleading in regions with decaying ice sheets; iii) extensive interfluves in some mountain regions were ice-free between 16 ka and 13 ka (kilo calibrated yrs BP). Initial decay of the CIS from its maximum extent around 16 ka was likely due to a combination of climatic (surface melting) and dynamical factors. Climate amelioration during the Bølling-Allerød Warm Period [14.7-12.9 ka], likely the cause for the major phase of CIS decay, resulted in ice sheet equilibrium line altitudes (ELAs) ranging from 2500 m asl in southern BC to around 2000 m asl along the BC-Yukon border. Hence, before the onset of the Younger Dryas (YD) Cold Period [12.9-11.7 ka], the ice sheet shrank and became a labyrinth of individual and coalescing valley glaciers fed by major accumulation zones centered on the Coast Mountains and other high ranges of NW Canada. The response of remnant ice and cirque glaciers to the YD climate deterioration was highly variable. In some cases, small glaciers (0.5-2 km2) built YD moraines that were only hundreds of meters beyond those constructed during the Little Ice Age (LIA) [0.30-0.15 ka]. Our dating also reveals that much larger glaciers persisted in nearby valleys that lie hundreds of meters below the cirques. Hence, we infer that many cirques were completely deglaciated prior the YD, in contrast to low-lying valleys where ice sheet remnants persisted. Glaciers also advanced in north-central British Columbia during the YD, but here glaciers constructed large terminal and lateral moraines. In the Cassiar and northern Coast mountains, for example

  2. Challenges in probabilistic event attribution in African climates (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Otto, F. E.; Allen, M. R.; Massey, N.

    2013-12-01

    Global climate change is almost certainly affecting the magnitude and frequency of extreme weather and hydrological events around the world. However, whether and to what extent the occurrence of an extreme weather event or the impacts of such an event on, agriculture, infrastructure, and livelihoods can be attributed to climate change remains a challenging question. With the introduction of the work programme on loss and damage associated with the impacts of climate change in developing countries on the UNFCCC agenda finding answers to this question has become even more important. Probabilistic event attribution (PEA) provides a method of evaluating the extent to which human-induced climate change is affecting localised weather events and impacts of such events that relies on good observations as well as climate modelling. The overall approach is to simulate, with as realistic a model as possible and accounting as far as possible for modelling uncertainties, both the statistics of observed weather and the statistics of the weather that would have occurred had specific external drivers of climate change been absent. The majority of studies applying PEA have focused on quantifying attributable risk, with changes in risk depending on an assumption of 'all other things being equal', including natural drivers of climate change and vulnerability. The fraction of attributable risk (FAR) to human-induced climate change is defined as the change in the probability of an event occurring due to human influence on the climate compared to the corresponding probability in a world not influenced by humans. We will present first results of a recently started project on 'Attributing the impacts of external climate drivers on extreme weather in Africa' applying PEA, which will provide an important step towards quantifying the link between climate change and extreme weather in Africa. However, especially in an African context, with the strong influence of global sea surface

  3. Influence of Climate Change on Extreme Weather Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, R. L.; Wehner, M. F.

    2013-12-01

    The increasing frequency of extreme weather events raises the question of to what extent such events can be attributed to human causes. Within the climate literature, an approach has been developed based on a quantity known as the fraction of attributable risk, or FAR. The essence of this approach is to estimate the probability of the extreme event of interest from parallel runs of climate models under either anthropogenic or natural conditions; the two probabilities are then combined to produce the FAR. However, a number of existing approaches either make questionable assumptions about estimating extreme event probabilites (e.g. inappropriate assumption of the normal distribution) or ignore the differences between climate models and observational data. Here, we propose an approach based on extreme value theory, incorporated into a hierarchical model to account for differences among climate models. A related technique, based on the same modeling approach, leads to quantitative estimates of how the probability of an extreme event will change under future projected climate change. We illustrate the method with examples related to the European heatwave of 2003, the Russian heatwave of 2010, and the Texas/Oklahoma heatwave and drought of 2011.

  4. Understanding the role of compound events in climate extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leonard, Michael; Westra, Seth; Phatak, Aloke; Lambert, Martin; van den Hurk, Bart; McInness, Kathleen; Risby, James; Schuster, Sandra; Jakob, Doerte; Stafford-Smith, Mark

    2013-04-01

    Climate variables give rise to hazards such as cyclones, floods and fires where an extreme impact is the result of a combination of variables rather than any one variable being in an extreme state in isolation. The combination of variables is termed a compound event and the nature of any given compound event will depend upon the variety of physical variables, the range of spatial and temporal scales over which they are linked, the strength of dependence between processes, and the interest of the stakeholder in defining the impact. Modelling compound events is a large, complex and inter-disciplinary undertaking and to facilitate this task influence diagrams are proposed for better defining, mapping, analysing, modelling and communicating the behaviour of the compound event. Ultimately, the greater appreciation of compound events will lead to greater insight and a changed perspective on how impact risks are associated with climate related hazards.

  5. Impact of an extreme climatic event on community assembly.

    PubMed

    Thibault, Katherine M; Brown, James H

    2008-03-01

    Extreme climatic events are predicted to increase in frequency and magnitude, but their ecological impacts are poorly understood. Such events are large, infrequent, stochastic perturbations that can change the outcome of entrained ecological processes. Here we show how an extreme flood event affected a desert rodent community that has been monitored for 30 years. The flood (i) caused catastrophic, species-specific mortality; (ii) eliminated the incumbency advantage of previously dominant species; (iii) reset long-term population and community trends; (iv) interacted with competitive and metapopulation dynamics; and (v) resulted in rapid, wholesale reorganization of the community. This and a previous extreme rainfall event were punctuational perturbations-they caused large, rapid population- and community-level changes that were superimposed on a background of more gradual trends driven by climate and vegetation change. Captured by chance through long-term monitoring, the impacts of such large, infrequent events provide unique insights into the processes that structure ecological communities. PMID:18303115

  6. Quantifying the effect of trend, fluctuation, and extreme event of climate change on ecosystem productivity.

    PubMed

    Liu, Yupeng; Yu, Deyong; Su, Yun; Hao, Ruifang

    2014-12-01

    Climate change comprises three fractions of trend, fluctuation, and extreme event. Assessing the effect of climate change on terrestrial ecosystem requires an understanding of the action mechanism of these fractions, respectively. This study examined 11 years of remotely sensed-derived net primary productivity (NPP) to identify the impacts of the trend and fluctuation of climate change as well as extremely low temperatures caused by a freezing disaster on ecosystem productivity in Hunan province, China. The partial least squares regression model was used to evaluate the contributions of temperature, precipitation, and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) to NPP variation. A climatic signal decomposition and contribution assessment model was proposed to decompose climate factors into trend and fluctuation components. Then, we quantitatively evaluated the contributions of each component of climatic factors to NPP variation. The results indicated that the total contribution of the temperature, precipitation, and PAR to NPP variation from 2001 to 2011 in Hunan province is 85 %, and individual contributions of the temperature, precipitation, and PAR to NPP variation are 44 % (including 34 % trend contribution and 10 % fluctuation contribution), 5 % (including 4 % trend contribution and 1 % fluctuation contribution), and 36 % (including 30 % trend contribution and 6 % fluctuation contribution), respectively. The contributions of temperature fluctuation-driven NPP were higher in the north and lower in the south, and the contributions of precipitation trend-driven NPP and PAR fluctuation-driven NPP are higher in the west and lower in the east. As an instance of occasionally triggered disturbance in 2008, extremely low temperatures and a freezing disaster produced an abrupt decrease of NPP in forest and grass ecosystems. These results prove that the climatic trend change brought about great impacts on ecosystem productivity and that climatic fluctuations and

  7. Mid-Holocene erosive episodes in tufa deposits from Trabaque Canyon, central Spain, as a result of abrupt arid climate transitions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Domínguez-Villar, David; Vázquez-Navarro, Juan A.; Carrasco, Rosa M.

    2012-08-01

    During the Holocene a series of tufa sediments were deposited from a karstic spring along the Trabaque Canyon, central Spain. A long-term lowering of the water table caused the location of the spring to be displaced from the upper sector of the canyon during the early Holocene to the lower sector in the late Holocene. This progressive shift was in response to decreased precipitation in the region. The depositional environments and their geomorphologic relationships were characterized. Thus, five morphosedimentary units (MSUs) were identified within the Holocene tufa deposits. Erosive episodes were recognized between MSUs and, as most of the MSUs partially overlap, the older ones are perched in relation to the younger ones. The chronology of the MSUs is based on 14C dates, and stable isotopes and total organic carbon content provided environmental information during the period of tufa sedimentation. The successive dissection episodes in the Trabaque Canyon tufa deposits took place during transitioning climate conditions from the relatively wet early Holocene to the more arid late Holocene. During this transitional period in the mid-Holocene, wet phases alternated with more arid conditions, causing the largest hydrological regime gradients in the Holocene. Thus, the four erosive episodes causing tufa dissection in Trabaque during the Holocene are interpreted as the result of abrupt transitional periods towards arid conditions.

  8. Sensitivity of flood events to global climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Panagoulia, Dionysia; Dimou, George

    1997-04-01

    The sensitivity of Acheloos river flood events at the outfall of the mountainous Mesochora catchment in Central Greece was analysed under various scenarios of global climate change. The climate change pattern was simulated through a set of hypothetical and monthly GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) scenarios of temperature increase coupled with precipitation changes. The daily outflow of the catchment, which is dominated by spring snowmelt runoff, was simulated by the coupling of snowmelt and soil moisture accounting models of the US National Weather Service River Forecast System. Two threshold levels were used to define a flood day—the double and triple long-term mean daily streamflow—and the flood parameters (occurrences, duration, magnitude, etc.) for these cases were determined. Despite the complicated response of flood events to temperature increase and threshold, both hypothetical and monthly GISS representations of climate change resulted in more and longer flood events for climates with increased precipitation. All climates yielded larger flood volumes and greater mean values of flood peaks with respect to precipitation increase. The lower threshold resulted in more and longer flood occurrences, as well as smaller flood volumes and peaks than those of the upper one. The combination of higher and frequent flood events could lead to greater risks of inudation and possible damage to structures. Furthermore, the winter swelling of the streamflow could increase erosion of the river bed and banks and hence modify the river profile.

  9. Comparison of the timings between abrupt climate changes in Greenland, Antarctica, China and Japan based on robust correlation using Lake Suigetsu as a template.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakagawa, T.

    2014-12-01

    High-resolution pollen-derived climate records from Lake Suigetsu varved sediment core were compared with climate archives from other regions and revealed a particular spatio-temporal structure of the monsoon climate change during so-called D-O events. Leads and lags of the climate change between different regions hold the key to understand the climate system. However, robust assessment of the relative timing of the climate change is often very challenging because correlation of the climatic archives from different regions often has inevitable uncertainties. Greenland and Cariaco basin, for example, provide two of the most frequently sited palaeoclimatic proxy data representative of the high- and low-latitudinal Atlantic regions. However, robust correlation of the records from those regions is difficult because of the uncertainties in layer countings, lack of the radiocarbon age control from ice cores, marine reservoir age of the Cariaco sediments, and the absence of the tephra layers shared by both cites. Similarly, Speleothem and ice core records are not robustly correlated to each other, either for the dead carbon fraction in the speleothems and lack of reliable correlation markers. The generally accepted hypothesis of synchronous climate change between China and the Greenland is, therefore, essentially hypothetical. Lake Suigetsu provides solution to this problem. The lake Suigetsu chronology is supposed to be coherent to the speleothems' U-Th age scale. Suigetsu's semi-continuous radiocarbon dataset, which constitutes major component of the IntCal13 radiocarbon calibration model, also provides opportunity to correlate lake Suigetsu and the Greenland and Antarctic ice cores using cosmogenic isotopes as the correlation key. Results of the correlation and timing comparison, which cast new lights to the mechanism of the monsoon change, will be presented.

  10. Attribution of extreme weather and climate events overestimated by unreliable climate simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bellprat, Omar; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco

    2016-03-01

    Event attribution aims to estimate the role of an external driver after the occurrence of an extreme weather and climate event by comparing the probability that the event occurs in two counterfactual worlds. These probabilities are typically computed using ensembles of climate simulations whose simulated probabilities are known to be imperfect. The implications of using imperfect models in this context are largely unknown, limited by the number of observed extreme events in the past to conduct a robust evaluation. Using an idealized framework, this model limitation is studied by generating large number of simulations with variable reliability in simulated probability. The framework illustrates that unreliable climate simulations are prone to overestimate the attributable risk to climate change. Climate model ensembles tend to be overconfident in their representation of the climate variability which leads to systematic increase in the attributable risk to an extreme event. Our results suggest that event attribution approaches comprising of a single climate model would benefit from ensemble calibration in order to account for model inadequacies similarly as operational forecasting systems.

  11. The GRACE satellites detect recent extreme climate events in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, Jingshi; Liu, Lin

    2012-07-01

    As the climate changes, the extreme climates are occurring more frequenly over the globe. In China, drought or flood recently strikes almost every year and there have been several disastrous events in these years. We show that some of the disastrous events are so strong that corresponding gravity change can be observed by geodetic satellies. We use the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), which is a joint mission between NASA and DLR. One primary job of GRACE is to map Earth temporal gravity field with high resolution. Over the years the twin satellites have observed the loss of mass in Antarctic and Greenland, strong earthquakes, severe climate change in South America and so on, which provides a unique way to study the geophysical or climatological process. In this report, the Level-2 product in recent few years from Center for Space Research is used and specific areas in China are focused on. It is shown that after decorrelation, filter and other processes, the gravity anomalies observed by GRACE match the extreme climate events and the hydrological data from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS).

  12. Heat waves connect abrupt polar climate changes during the past 67ka: evidence from sediment core GeoB3912-1

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, X.; Rial, J. A.

    2014-12-01

    According to the hypothesis of polar synchronization, climate variations of Earth's poles are connected with a persistent phase lock of π/2 throughout the last glacial period. However, it is not clear yet how the Earth's two poles communicate with each other, the Thermohaline circulation (THC) being a possible candidate for signal carrier. Here we present a possible way of climate variation propagation through the Atlantic Ocean - likely in the form of heat or thermal wave (Cattaneo's solution) - based on lagged correlation between an organic carbon climate proxy record from the tropical Atlantic and the south-north polar temperature gradient. We further demonstrate that the speed of such propagation is frequency dependent, of which the wave of the longest period travels the fastest at the speed of ~32 km/year consistent with the estimated speed of the THC. The observed speed - frequency relationship can be successfully modeled as resulting from a propagating dispersive thermal wave initiated by the polar temperature gradient maximum. We show that such heat wave propagation is a potential mechanism to couple and synchronize the polar climates during the last glacial period and to force the occurrence of Heinrich events. To summarize, the polar temperature gradient anomalies are consequence of the π/2 phase lock between the polar climates, which is caused by polar synchronization maintained by the coupling, which is, as the data suggest, in the form of thermal waves. The spikes in organic carbon and the Fe/Ca ratio records in the core GeoB3912-1 can be thought of as snapshots of the passage of strong meteorological wavefronts through the equatorial region. The results strongly suggest that each peak in the organic carbon recorded a half-hemisphere-delayed passage of a wave-like disturbance through the equator carrying the south-north temperature gradient maxima. And each of these occurs within timing error of the Heinrich events H0-H6.

  13. NASA Climate Days: Promoting Climate Literacy One Ambassador and One Event at a Time

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weir, H. M.; Lewis, P. M.; Chambers, L. H.; Millham, R. A.; Richardson, A.

    2012-12-01

    With so many informal outreach and education venues across the world, leveraging them for climate education allows vast amounts of information to be translated to the public in a familiar setting through trusted local sources. One of the challenges is the development of an effective process for training informal educators and providing them with adequate support materials. The 'NASA Climate Day Kit', and its related training strategy for Earth Ambassadors, is designed to address some of these issues. The purpose of the NASA Climate Day project is to collect existing NASA climate education materials, assemble a cadre of informal educators, and provide professional development on the subject of climate change. This training is accomplished through a series of exercises, games, science talks and place-based training. After their training and immersion in climate-related content, participants develop and implement a climate event at their local informal education venue. Throughout their training the Earth Ambassadors are exposed to a wide array of climate related exercises and background content. Some of these include one-on-one science content talks with NASA scientists who study climate on a daily basis. This allows the Ambassador to have direct access to new cutting edge data and information. To complement the science talks, participants explore activities and games that can engage all ages at their climate event. During their training, they also explore the 'Climate Day Kit'. This Kit is an assemblage of climate-related materials created by various NASA groups. Key components of this Kit include data visualizations, articles, electronic reference material, science talks, NASA Education and Public Outreach (E/PO) climate materials, and examples of Climate Day events that have been conducted in the past. As an on-going resource and to use for their own climate event, each group of Earth Ambassadors has access to a dynamic website that hosts all of the science

  14. A stratigraphic framework for naming and robust correlation of abrupt climatic changes during the last glacial period based on three synchronized Greenland ice core records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rasmussen, Sune O.

    2014-05-01

    Due to their outstanding resolution and well-constrained chronologies, Greenland ice core records have long been used as a master record of past climatic changes during the last interglacial-glacial cycle in the North Atlantic region. As part of the INTIMATE (INtegration of Ice-core, MArine and TErrestrial records) project, protocols have been proposed to ensure consistent and robust correlation between different records of past climate. A key element of these protocols has been the formal definition of numbered Greenland Stadials (GS) and Greenland Interstadials (GI) within the past glacial period as the Greenland expressions of the characteristic Dansgaard-Oeschger events that represent cold and warm phases of the North Atlantic region, respectively. Using a recent synchronization of the NGRIP, GRIP, and GISP2 ice cores that allows the parallel analysis of all three records on a common time scale, we here present an extension of the GS/GI stratigraphic template to the entire glacial period. This is based on a combination of isotope ratios (δ18O, reflecting mainly local temperature) and calcium concentrations (reflecting mainly atmospheric dust loading). In addition to the well-known sequence of Dansgaard-Oeschger events that were first defined and numbered in the ice core records more than two decades ago, a number of short-lived climatic oscillations have been identified in the three synchronized records. Some of these events have been observed in other studies, but we here propose a consistent scheme for discriminating and naming all the significant climatic events of the last glacial period that are represented in the Greenland ice cores. This is a key step aimed at promoting unambiguous comparison and correlation between different proxy records, as well as a more secure basis for investigating the dynamics and fundamental causes of these climatic perturbations. The work presented is under review for publication in Quaternary Science Reviews. Author team: S

  15. Statistics of extreme events with application to climate

    SciTech Connect

    Abarbanel, H.; Koonin, S.; Levine, H.; MacDonald, G.; Rothaus, O.

    1992-01-10

    The statistical theory of extreme events is applied to observed global average temperature records and to simplified models of climate. Both hands of records exhibit behavior in the tails of the distribution that would be expected from a random variable having a a normal distribution. A simple nonlinear model of climate due to Lorenz is used to demonstrate that the physical dimensions of the underlying attractor, determined by applicable conservation laws, limits the range of extremes. These limits are not reached in either observed series or in more complex models of climate. The effect of a shift in mean on the frequency of extremes is discussed with special reference to possible thresholds for damage to climate variability.

  16. Sensitivity of the North Atlantic Ocean Circulation to an abrupt change in the Nordic Sea overflow in a high resolution global coupled climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Rong; Delworth, Thomas L.; Rosati, Anthony; Anderson, Whit G.; Dixon, Keith W.; Lee, Hyun-Chul; Zeng, Fanrong

    2011-12-01

    The sensitivity of the North Atlantic Ocean Circulation to an abrupt change in the Nordic Sea overflow is investigated for the first time using a high resolution eddy-permitting global coupled ocean-atmosphere model (GFDL CM2.5). The Nordic Sea overflow is perturbed through the change of the bathymetry in GFDL CM2.5. We analyze the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) adjustment process and the downstream oceanic response to the perturbation. The results suggest that north of 34°N, AMOC changes induced by changes in the Nordic Sea overflow propagate on the slow tracer advection timescale, instead of the fast Kelvin wave timescale, resulting in a time lead of several years between subpolar and subtropical AMOC changes. The results also show that a stronger and deeper-penetrating Nordic Sea overflow leads to stronger and deeper AMOC, stronger northward ocean heat transport, reduced Labrador Sea deep convection, stronger cyclonic Northern Recirculation Gyre (NRG), westward shift of the North Atlantic Current (NAC) and southward shift of the Gulf Stream, warmer sea surface temperature (SST) east of Newfoundland and colder SST south of the Grand Banks, stronger and deeper NAC and Gulf Stream, and stronger oceanic eddy activities along the NAC and the Gulf Stream paths. A stronger/weaker Nordic Sea overflow also leads to a contracted/expanded subpolar gyre (SPG). This sensitivity study points to the important role of the Nordic Sea overflow in the large scale North Atlantic ocean circulation, and it is crucial for climate models to have a correct representation of the Nordic Sea overflow.

  17. Climate modelling of mass-extinction events: a review

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feulner, Georg

    2009-07-01

    Despite tremendous interest in the topic and decades of research, the origins of the major losses of biodiversity in the history of life on Earth remain elusive. A variety of possible causes for these mass-extinction events have been investigated, including impacts of asteroids or comets, large-scale volcanic eruptions, effects from changes in the distribution of continents caused by plate tectonics, and biological factors, to name but a few. Many of these suggested drivers involve or indeed require changes of Earth's climate, which then affect the biosphere of our planet, causing a global reduction in the diversity of biological species. It can be argued, therefore, that a detailed understanding of these climatic variations and their effects on ecosystems are prerequisites for a solution to the enigma of biological extinctions. Apart from investigations of the paleoclimate data of the time periods of mass extinctions, climate-modelling experiments should be able to shed some light on these dramatic events. Somewhat surprisingly, however, only a few comprehensive modelling studies of the climate changes associated with extinction events have been undertaken. These studies will be reviewed in this paper. Furthermore, the role of modelling in extinction research in general and suggestions for future research are discussed.

  18. Extreme events due to human-induced climate change.

    PubMed

    Mitchell, John F B; Lowe, Jason; Wood, Richard A; Vellinga, Michael

    2006-08-15

    A recent assessment by the intergovernmental panel on climate change concluded that the Earth's climate would be 2-6 degrees C warmer than in the pre-industrial era by the end of the twenty-first century, due to human-induced increases in greenhouse gases. In the absence of other changes, this would lead to the warmest period on Earth for at least the last 1000 years, and probably the last 100,000 years. The large-scale warming is expected to be accompanied by increased frequency and/or intensity of extreme events, such as heatwaves, heavy rainfall, storms and coastal flooding. There are also several possibilities that this large change could initiate nonlinear climate responses which lead to even more extreme and rapid (on the time-scale of decades) climate change, including the collapse of the ocean 'conveyor belt' circulation, the collapse of major ice sheets or the release of large amounts of methane in high latitudes leading to further global warming. Although these catastrophic events are much more speculative than the direct warming due to increased greenhouse gases, their potential impacts are great and therefore should be included in any risk assessment of the impacts of anthropogenic climate change. PMID:16844651

  19. The Legacy of Episodic Climatic Events in Shaping Temperate, Broadleaf Forests

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pederson, Neil; Dyer, James M.; McEwan, Ryan W.; Hessl, Amy E.; Mock, Cary J.; Orwig, David A.; Rieder, Harald E.; Cook, Benjamin I.

    2015-01-01

    subcontinental scale during the late-1600s suggesting that this event was severe enough to open large canopy gaps. These disturbances and their climatic drivers support the hypothesis that punctuated, episodic, climatic events impart a legacy in broadleaf-dominated forests centuries after their occurrence. Given projections of future drought, these results also reveal the potential for abrupt, meso- to large-scale forest change in broadleaf-dominated forests over future decades.

  20. Assessing variability in climate data: a significant event viewer tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rozum, Iryna; Raoult, Baudouin; Dee, Dick

    2014-05-01

    The EU funded CHARMe project ("Characterization of metadata to allow high-quality climate applications and services") addresses the major difficulty faced by users of climate data when judging whether data are fit for purpose, by introducing the concept of 'Commentary' metadata. The ECMWF's ERA-CLIM reanalysis project produced several climate data products including the 111 years Observation Feedback Archive which contains all the earth observations processed by the reanalysis, as well as, for each of them, feedback information generated by the data assimilation system. This information is complemented with a database of significant events which can affect data, such as volcanic eruptions, the launch of new satellites or El Niño phases, etc. A web-based graphical tool is being developed that will allow users to interactively browse and visualise time series of climate data with their associated events. This would allow users to become more familiar with the variety of observations that feed into the reanalysis, and to determine whether the variability and features seen in the dataset were likely to be artefacts of the measurement or processing steps, or real changes in the environment.

  1. Changes in the variability of extreme climate events in Latvia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Avotniece, Zanita; Lizuma, Lita; Briede, Agrita; Klavins, Maris

    2015-04-01

    Recent changes in the mean values of surface air temperature and precipitation have led to significant local changes in hazardous and extreme events in many parts of the world, including the Northern Europe and Latvia. The observed trends in the changes of such extreme climate events indicate that extremes associated with high temperatures and precipitation are becoming more frequent in Latvia, however not much is known about the changes in variability of these extreme events. This study investigated the long-term trends and variability of extreme temperature and precipitation events as defined by the ECA&D in 10 meteorological observation stations in Latvia over the period 1925-2012. In order to detect and study the changes in variability and anomalies of extreme events, a comparison of three different time scales was performed: 1931-1960, 1961-1990,1981-2010. The results of the analysis revealed steady changes in some extremes while others have experienced a significant change in variability in the most recent 30-year period. Due to the specifics in the spatial distribution of extreme events, the results show differences in the behaviour of extreme events over the country.

  2. Gap formation following climatic events in spatially structured plant communities.

    PubMed

    Liao, Jinbao; De Boeck, Hans J; Li, Zhenqing; Nijs, Ivan

    2015-01-01

    Gaps play a crucial role in maintaining species diversity, yet how community structure and composition influence gap formation is still poorly understood. We apply a spatially structured community model to predict how species diversity and intraspecific aggregation shape gap patterns emerging after climatic events, based on species-specific mortality responses. In multispecies communities, average gap size and gap-size diversity increased rapidly with increasing mean mortality once a mortality threshold was exceeded, greatly promoting gap recolonization opportunity. This result was observed at all levels of species richness. Increasing interspecific difference likewise enhanced these metrics, which may promote not only diversity maintenance but also community invasibility, since more diverse niches for both local and exotic species are provided. The richness effects on gap size and gap-size diversity were positive, but only expressed when species were sufficiently different. Surprisingly, while intraspecific clumping strongly promoted gap-size diversity, it hardly influenced average gap size. Species evenness generally reduced gap metrics induced by climatic events, so the typical assumption of maximum evenness in many experiments and models may underestimate community diversity and invasibility. Overall, understanding the factors driving gap formation in spatially structured assemblages can help predict community secondary succession after climatic events. PMID:26114803

  3. Pregnancy Complications: Placental Abruption

    MedlinePlus

    ... page It's been added to your dashboard . The placenta attaches to the wall of the uterus (womb) ... abruption is a serious condition in which the placenta separates from the wall of the uterus before ...

  4. Extreme hydrometeorological events and climate change predictions in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Millán, Millán M.

    2014-10-01

    Field meteorological data collected in several European Commission projects (from 1974 to 2011) were re-analysed in the context of a perceived reduction in summer storms around the Western Mediterranean Basin (WMB). The findings reveal some hitherto overlooked processes that raise questions about direct impacts on European hydrological cycles, e.g., extreme hydrometeorological events, and about the role of feedbacks on climate models and climate predictions. For instance, the summer storms are affected by land-use changes along the coasts and mountain slopes. Their loss triggers a chain of events that leads to an Accumulation Mode (AM) where water vapour and air pollutants (ozone) become stacked in layers, up to 4000(+) m, over the WMB. The AM cycle can last 3-5 consecutive days, and recur several times each month from mid May to late August. At the end of each cycle the accumulated water vapour can feed Vb track events and generate intense rainfall and summer floods in Central Europe. Venting out of the water vapour that should have precipitated within the WMB increases the salinity of the sea and affects the Atlantic-Mediterranean Salinity valve at Gibraltar. This, in turn, can alter the tracks of Atlantic Depressions and their frontal systems over Atlantic Europe. Another effect is the greenhouse heating by water vapour and photo-oxidants (e.g., O3) when layered over the Basin during the AM cycle. This increases the Sea Surface Temperature (SST), and the higher SST intensifies torrential rain events over the Mediterranean coasts in autumn. All these processes raise research questions that must be addressed to improve the meteorological forecasting of extreme events, as well as climate model predictions.

  5. Changes in the Perceived Risk of Climate Change: Evidence from Sudden Climatic Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anttila-Hughes, J. K.

    2009-12-01

    In the course of the past two decades the threat of anthropogenic climate change has moved from a scientific concern of relative obscurity to become one of the largest environmental and public goods problems in history. During this period public understanding of the risk of climate change has shifted from negligible to quite large. In this paper I propose a means of quantifying this change by examining how sudden events supporting the theory of anthropogenic climate change have affected carbon intensive companies' stock prices. Using CAPM event study methodology for companies in several carbon-intensive industries, I find strong evidence that markets have been reacting to changes in the scientific evidence for climate change for some time. Specifically, the change in magnitude of response over time seems to indicate that investors believed climate change was a potentially serious risk to corporate profits as early as the mid 1990s. Moreover, market reaction dependence on event type indicates that investors are differentiating between different advances in the scientific knowledge. Announcements by NASA GISS that the previous year was a “record hot year” for the globe are associated with negative excess returns, while news of ice shelf collapses are associated with strong positive excess returns. These results imply that investors are aware of how different aspects of climate change will affect carbon intensive companies, specifically in terms of the link between warming in general and polar ice cover.

  6. Climate change impacts on extreme events in the United States: an uncertainty analysis

    EPA Science Inventory

    Extreme weather and climate events, such as heat waves, droughts and severe precipitation events, have substantial impacts on ecosystems and the economy. However, future climate simulations display large uncertainty in mean changes. As a result, the uncertainty in future changes ...

  7. Extreme events evaluation over African cities with regional climate simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bucchignani, Edoardo; Mercogliano, Paola; Simonis, Ingo; Engelbrecht, Francois

    2013-04-01

    scenarios, and forced by the global model CMCC-MED (whose atmospheric component is ECHAM5). At CSIR, the CCAM variable-resolution atmospheric global circulation model has been used: when applied in stretched-grid mode, it effectively functions as a regional climate model. All the projections are for the A2 emission scenario. The model has been forced with the output of six different Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs) used in AR4. The availability of climate simulations covering the period 1950-2100 gives the possibility to investigate temperature and precipitation extreme events over the cities of interest. The variations of these fundamental climate parameters will condition different hazards at different time-scales, having a stronger impact on goods and populations. For both of them, the computation of several indicators has been done on daily time basis over four seasons. Particularly relevant for Africa is the frequency and duration of heat waves and the increase of highest temperature values, but also the occurrence of droughts. A way to assess extreme events in natural phenomena is through the concept of average recurrence intervals, often referred to as 'return periods', defined as the average period between exceedances of a given value. Results obtained with both the models for the time period 1971-2000 will be compared with CRU dataset and with observational data provided by local municipalities. Finally, results related to future periods for different scenarios will be analysed.

  8. Predictability of near-surface climate extreme events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Becker, E. J.; van den Dool, H. M.; Pena, M.

    2010-12-01

    This study seeks an answer to this question: How well can we currently predict climate extremes? We have examined the predictability of near-surface climate extremes in the region of the Americas, in the form of monthly anomalies in 2-meter surface temperature, precipitation rate, and sea surface temperature, using retrospective forecasts from two “state of the art” coupled ocean-land-atmosphere models. The two models, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model, version 3.5 (CCSM3.5) and the operational NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFS), were studied individually and as a multi-model ensemble. The 17-year span between 1982 and 1998 was available for both models, with January and July initial conditions. The climatologies and PDFs of the model forecasts were compared to those of corresponding observations as an initial assessment of the models. To approximate removing the model biases, we removed the model climatology from the forecast and replaced it with the observed climatology. For the purposes of this study, we have defined a “climate extreme” as a departure from the monthly mean above/below a specified multiple of the local standard deviation of the variable. Several measures of forecast skill were employed, including the ranked probability score, root-mean-square error, and anomaly correlation. Some positive skill scores for forecast climate extremes at leads of 1 - 4 months were found for all three variables studied, with the best scores for sea-surface temperature, followed by 2-meter surface temperature and precipitation rate. Prediction skill is higher over South America than North America. Skill, by any measure, increases when the sample is restricted to extreme events. Anomaly correlations are generally higher when an extreme event occurred in the observed record (i.e., an extreme occurred, was it predicted?) than when verification of a predicted extreme was assessed (i.e. the model predicted an extreme

  9. Changes in the Perceived Risk of Climate Change: Evidence from Sudden Climatic Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anttila-Hughes, J. K.

    2009-12-01

    In the course of the past two decades the threat of anthropogenic climate change has moved from a scientific concern of relative obscurity to become one of the largest environmental and public goods problems in history. During this period public understanding of the risk of climate change has shifted from negligible to quite large. In this paper I propose a means of quantifying this change by examining how sudden events supporting the theory of anthropogenic climate change have affected carbon intensive companies' stock prices. Using CAPM event study methodology for companies in several carbon-intensive industries, I find strong evidence that markets have been reacting to changes in the scientific evidence for climate change for some time. Specifically, the change in magnitude of response over time seems to indicate that investors believed climate change was a potentially serious risk to corporate profits as early as the mid 1990s. Moreover, market reaction dependence on event type indicates that investors are differentiating between different advances in the scientific knowledge. Announcements by NASA GISS that the previous year was a “record hot year” for the globe are associated with negative excess returns, while news of ice shelf collapses are associated with strong positive excess returns. These results imply that investors are aware of how different aspects of climate change will affect carbon intensive companies, specifically in terms of the link between warming in general and polar ice cover. This implies that policy choices based on observable public opinion have lagged actual private concern over climate change's potential threat.

  10. Cyclones and extreme windstorm events over Europe under climate change: Global and regional climate model diagnostics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leckebusch, G. C.; Ulbrich, U.

    2003-04-01

    More than any changes of the climate system mean state conditions, the development of extreme events may influence social, economic and legal aspects of our society. This linkage results from the impact of extreme climate events (natural hazards) on environmental systems which again are directly linked to human activities. Prominent examples from the recent past are the record breaking rainfall amounts of August 2002 in central Europe which produced widespread floodings or the wind storm Lothar of December 1999. Within the MICE (Modelling the Impact of Climate Extremes) project framework an assessment of the impact of changes in extremes will be done. The investigation is carried out for several different impact categories as agriculture, energy use and property damage. Focus is laid on the diagnostics of GCM and RCM simulations under different climate change scenarios. In this study we concentrate on extreme windstorms and their relationship to cyclone activity in the global HADCM3 as well as in the regional HADRM3 model under two climate change scenarios (SRESA2a, B2a). In order to identify cyclones we used an objective algorithm from Murry and Simmonds which was widely tested under several different conditions. A slight increase in the occurrence of systems is identified above northern parts of central Europe for both scenarios. For more severe systems (core pressure < 990 hPa) we find an increase for western Europe. Strong wind events can be defined via different percentile values of the windspeed (e.g. above the 95 percentile). By this means the relationship between strong wind events and cyclones is also investigated. For several regions (e.g. Germany, France, Spain) a shift to more deep cyclones connected with an increasing number of strong wind events is found.

  11. Rain attenuation prediction during rain events in different climatic regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Das, Dalia; Maitra, Animesh

    2015-06-01

    A rain attenuation prediction method has been applied to different climatic regions to test the validity of the model. The significant difference in rain rate and attenuation statistics for the tropical and temperate region needs to be considered in developing channel model to predict time series of rain attenuation for earth space communication links. Model parameters obtained for a tropical location has been successfully applied to predict time series of rain attenuation at other tropical locations. Separate model parameters are derived from the experimental data obtained at a temperate location and these are used to predict rain attenuation during rain events for other temperate locations showing the effectiveness of the technique.

  12. Case studies of extreme climatic events in the Amazon basin

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Marengo, Jose A.; Hastenrath, Stefan

    1993-01-01

    The present exploration of climate-anomaly mechanisms, on the basis of surface-climatological and hydrological series, as well as upper-air and satellite observations, gives attention to the March-April rainy season peak in northern Amazonia. While the moderately wet year 1986 exhibited a far-southerly location of the Atlantic near-equatorial trough, and an embedded intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), the extremely dry El Nino year 1983 featured a more northerly ITCZ. Major mechanisms of extreme rainfall events are synthesized on the basis of these analyses.

  13. Dynamics of urban heat stress events in climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, David

    2016-04-01

    Extreme heat stress events as measured by the wet-bulb temperature require extraordinarily high air temperatures coupled with high humidity. These conditions are rare, as relative humidity rapidly falls with rising air temperature, and this effect often results in decreasing heat stress as temperature rises. However, in certain coastal locations in the Middle East recent heat waves have resulted in wet-bulb temperatures of 33-35 degrees C, which approach the theoretical limits of human tolerance. These conditions result from the combination of extreme desert heat and humid winds off of the warm ocean waters. It is unclear if climate models properly simulate these dynamics. This study will analyse the ability of the CMIP5 model suite to replicate observed dynamics during extreme heat events in major urban areas.

  14. Extreme Climatic Events: Understanding, Modeling and Predicting Them (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghil, M.

    2009-12-01

    Extreme climatic events include strong El Niños and La Niñas, heat and cold waves, droughts and floods — along with any number of associated phenomena, from wind bursts to firestorms — and cover continental down to regional scales. I will start by illustrating some of these phenomena graphically, and proceed with an in-depth discussion of one set of such events, those arising from the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. The connection between the understanding as a nonlinear, complex phenomenon, the modeling across a full hierarchy — from “toy” via intermediate to highly detailed GCMs (“general circulation” or “global climate” models) — and the prediction via statistical, dynamical and combined methods will be emphasized. This talk and another invited talk, in session NG11, complément each other.

  15. Simulation of Heinrich events and their climate impact with an Earth system model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ganopolski, A.; Calov, R.

    2003-04-01

    Heinrich events related to large-scale surges of the Laurentide Ice Sheet into the Atlantic Ocean represent one of the most dramatic types of abrupt climate change occurring during the glacial age. MacAyeal proposed a "binge/purge" free oscillatory mechanism, explaining HEs as transitions between two modes of operation of ice sheets: slow movement of ice over a frozen base and a fast sliding mode when the ice bed is at the melting point. This type of self-sustained multi-millennial oscillation has been simulated in simplified 2-D ice sheet models, but in realistic 3-D models such a large-scale instability of the LIS has not so far been reproduced. Here using a coupled atmosphere-ocean-vegetation-ice sheet model, we simulate quasi-periodic large-scale rapid surges from the Laurentide Ice Sheet under typical glacial climate conditions. The average time between simulated events is about 7,000 yrs, while the surging phase of each event lasts only several hundred years, with a total ice volume discharge corresponding to 5--10 m of sea level rise. The crucial factor needed for existence of mega-surges in our model is employment of different sliding laws over hard bed (rocks) and over soft water-saturated sediments, like those in the Hudson Bay and Hudson Strait. The area of deformable sediments served as a geological template for the mega-surges. During each HE, the elevation drops by more than one km over the Hudson Bay, and the Laurentide ice sheet changes from one-dome to a two-dome structure -- one dome being located over the southeast of Alberta and another over the southwest of Quebec. In our model the ice surges represent internal oscillations of the ice sheet related to rapid transitions between two metastable modes of ice sheet dynamics over the area covered by deformable sediments. At the same time, we demonstrate the possibility of both internal and external synchronization between instabilities of different ice sheets, as indicated in palaeoclimate records

  16. Icing events over the Russian territory in changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bulygina, Olga; Arzhanova, Nataliya; Razuvaev, Vycheslav; Groisman, Pavel

    2014-05-01

    Ongoing climate change manifests itself as changes in the most of the climate system parameters. Recent changes in temperature and precipitation regimes and thaw frequency, as well as the summer decrease in ice-covered area in the Arctic Ocean (which gives rise to the formation of the water vapor source for the dry polar atmosphere early in the cold season) affect the atmospheric humidity regime. The humidity regime change at high latitudes in cold seasons can alter the characteristics of icing events. In the high latitudes higher humidity causes higher ice condensation from the air (icing and hoar frost) in the absence of precipitation. Icing conditions, particularly in combination with wind, affect greatly the operation of overhead communication and transmission lines causing serious failures, which results in tremendous economic damage. Aircraft icing in flight is the most dangerous phenomenon that in some instances can cause aircraft crash. Icing formation is dangerous to agriculture and forestry. Russian meteorological stations perform both visual and instrumental monitoring of icing deposits. Visual monitoring is ocular estimation of the type and intensity of icing and the date of ice appearance and disappearance. Observations are made at an instrument platform and in its visible vicinity. Instrumental monitoring is performed by ice accretion indicator in order to estimate not only the type, intensity and duration of ice deposits, but also their weight and size. Observations at 958 Russian stations for the period 1977-2012 are used to analyze changes in the ice formation frequency at individual meteorological stations and on the territory of quasi-homogeneous climatic regions in Russia. On the Arctic coast of Russia, this phenomenon is even observed in summer months. In the cold season (November-March), icing events typically occur in the north of European Russia, Siberia and Yakutia. Trends of the number of days with the phenomenon under study are estimated

  17. A 2400-year record of abrupt climate change from Almalou Crate Lake in NW Iran: Investigating the potential influence of solar variability on the climate of West Asia during late Holocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharifi, A.; Pourmand, A.; Canuel, E. A.; Naderi Beni, A.; Lahijani, H. A.

    2013-12-01

    The Mediterranean climate of northwest Iran is influenced by mid-latitude Westerlies and the winter expansion of the Siberian Anticyclone. Given the significance of this region in development of human civilizations, high-resolution reconstructions of abrupt climate change are of particular interest during the Holocene. Almalou Crater Lake sustains the growth of plants inside the crater of a dormant volcanic cone on the eastern flank of the Sahand volcanic district in NW Iran. At an elevation of 2491 m.a.s.l., the crater is exclusively fed by rainfall during the spring and fall and snowfall during the winter. Preservation of organic matter within the crater can potentially record changes in atmospheric deposition and paleo-environmental conditions over this region. To reconstruct changes in atmospheric aeolian input, we present a high-resolution (sub-decadal) multi-proxy record of climate variability during the last 2400 years from a 3-m peat core recovered from the crater peat bog. Radiocarbon dates of eight samples along the core show a nearly constant rate of accumulation (7.7 mm yr-1, R2=0.98) since 2404×25 cal yr BP. Downcore X-ray fluorescence measurements of selected conservative lithogenic elements (e.g., Al, Si, and Ti) as well as redox-sensitive elements (e.g., Fe and Rb) at 10 mm intervals reveal several periods of elevated abundances related to enhanced atmospheric dust deposition. The co-variations between relative abundances of conservative and redox-sensitive elements as a function of time show significant agreement and attest to the ombrotrophic nature of the entire record. Intervals of enhanced dust deposition inferred from XRF data reveal three short episodes (~ 150-y) at 450-600, 1150-1300, and 1400-1550 cal yr BP, and one prolonged period (500 y) of dust accumulation from 1600 to 2070 cal yr BP. These intervals of high atmospheric dust coincide with historical records of drought and famine in Iran since 2000 BP. Wavelet analysis conducted on the

  18. Towards Greenland Glaciation: cumulative or abrupt transition?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tan, Ning; Dumas, Christophe; Ladant, Jean-Baptiste; Ramstein, Gilles; Contoux, Camille

    2016-04-01

    During the mid-Pliocene warming period (3-3.3 Ma BP), global annual mean temperature is warmer by 2-3 degree than pre-industrial. Greenland ice sheet volume is supposed to be a 50% reduction compared to nowadays [Haywood et al. 2010]. Around 2.7-2.6 Ma BP, just ~ 500 kyr after the warming peak of mid-Pliocene, there is already full Greenland Glaciation [Lunt et al. 2008]. How does Greenland ice sheet evolve from a half size to a glaciation level during 3 Ma - 2.5 Ma? Data show that there is a decreasing trend of atmospheric CO2 concentration from 3 Ma to 2.5 Ma [Seki et al.2010; Bartoli et al. 2011; Martinez et al. 2015]. However, a recent study [Contoux et al. 2015] suggests that a lowering of CO2 is not sufficient to initiate a perennial glaciation on Greenland and must be combined to low summer insolation, to preserve the ice sheet during insolation maximum, suggesting a cumulative process. In order to diagnose whether the ice sheet build-up is an abrupt event or a cumulative process, we carry on, for the first time, a transient simulation of climate and ice sheet evolutions from 3 Ma to 2.5 Ma. This strategy enables to investigate waxing and waning of the ice sheet during several orbital cycles. To reach this goal, we use a tri-dimensional interpolation method designed by Ladant et al. (2014) which combines the evolution of CO2 concentration, orbital parameters and Greenland ice sheet sizes in an off-line way by interpolating snapshots simulations. Thanks to this new method, we can build a transient like simulation through asynchronous coupling between GCM and ice sheet model. With this method, we may consistently answer the question of the build-up of Greenland: abrupt or cumulative process.

  19. Extreme Weather Events and Interconnected Infrastructures: Toward More Comprehensive Climate Change Planning

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Wilbanks, Thomas J.; Fernandez, Steven J.; Allen, Melissa R.

    2015-06-23

    The President s Climate Change Action Plan calls for the development of better science, data, and tools for climate preparedness. Many of the current questions about preparedness for extreme weather events in coming decades are, however, difficult to answer with assets that have been developed by climate science to answer longer-term questions about climate change. Capacities for projecting exposures to climate-related extreme events, along with their implications for interconnected infrastructures, are now emerging.

  20. Space based observations for monitoring extreme weather and climate events

    SciTech Connect

    Rao, P.K.

    1996-12-31

    Observations are essential for monitoring, understanding, and predicting the potential for extreme weather and climate events. These events occur on all time and spatial scales. Current NOAA operational satellites have a unique capability of providing many of the observations that are critical for monitoring these events. These observations and derived geophysical quantities can also be used for diagnostics and prediction purposes. Extreme weather conditions such as severe thunderstorms and flash floods, occur very quickly, may last for a short time, and create a considerable amount of damage. Advance warnings of the order of a few minutes are needed to alert the public so they may take adequate precautions. Some extreme weather conditions such as tropical storms (hurricanes) may last for days, and in order to predict the exact track, intensity of the storm and forecast the land fall, frequent observations are critical. Examples of satellite data that are obtained from the NOAA satellites are presented to demonstrate their ability to monitor the extreme weather phenomena. Examples of extreme climate conditions are droughts over continents and the annual depletion of ozone over the Antarctic. Data derived from NOAA satellites were used to monitor the severe drought over Texas and Southwestern U.S.A. in early 1996. Similar data are being used by other countries to monitor the drought in their regions. The development of the ozone hole over the Antarctic during the last fifteen years has been a major scientific and environmental concern. Data from NOAA operational satellites have been extensively used to show the yearly development and dissipation of the ozone hole during the Southern Hemisphere springtime.

  1. Recent advances on reconstruction of climate and extreme events in China for the past 2000 year

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zheng, Jingyun; Hao, Zhixin; Ge, Quansheng; Liu, Yang

    2016-04-01

    The study of regional climate changes for past 2000 year could present spatial pattern of climate variation and various historical analogues for the sensitivity and operation of the climate system (e.g., the modulations of internal variability, feedbacks and teleconnections, abrupt changes and regional extreme events, etc.) from inter-annual to centennial scales and provide the knowledge to predict and project climate in the near future. China is distinguished by a prominent monsoon climate in east, continental arid climate in northwest and high land cold climate in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau located at southwest. The long history of civilization and the variety of climate in China provides an abundant and well-dated documentary records and a wide range of natural archives (e.g., tree-ring, ice core, stalagmite, varved lake sediment, etc.) for high-resolution paleoclimate reconstruction. This paper presented a review of recent advances on reconstruction of climate and extreme events in China for the past 2000 years. In recent 10 years, there were many new high-resolution paleoclimatic reconstructions reported in China, e.g., the annual and decadal resolution series of temperature and precipitation in eastern China derived from historical documents, in western China derived from tree-ring and other natural archives. These new reconstructions provided more proxies and better spatial coverage to understand the characteristics of climate change over China and the uncertainty of regional reconstructions, as well as to reconstruct the high-resolution temperature series and the spatial pattern of precipitation change for whole China in the past millenniums by synthesizing the multi-proxy together. The updated results show that, in China, the warm intervals for the past 2000 years were in AD 1-200, AD 551-760, AD 951-1320, and after AD 1921; as well as the cold intervals were in AD 201-350, AD 441-530, AD 781-950, and AD 1321-1920. The extreme cold winters occurred in periods

  2. Changes in grassland ecosystem function due to extreme rainfall events: implications for responses to climate change

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Climate change driven by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations is causing measurable changes in precipitation patterns. Most climate change scenarios forecast continuing increases in extreme precipitation patterns for North American terrestrial ecosystems, manifest as larger precipitation event...

  3. Investigating the impact of Lake Agassiz drainage routes on the 8.2 ka cold event with a climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Y.-X.; Renssen, H.; Wiersma, A. P.; Törnqvist, T. E.

    2009-08-01

    The 8.2 ka event is the most prominent abrupt climate change in the Holocene and is often believed to result from catastrophic drainage of proglacial lakes Agassiz and Ojibway (LAO) that routed through the Hudson Bay and the Labrador Sea into the North Atlantic Ocean, and perturbed Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC). One key assumption of this triggering mechanism is that the LAO freshwater drainage was dispersed over the Labrador Sea. Recent data, however, show no evidence of lowered δ18O values, indicative of low salinity, from the open Labrador Sea around 8.2 ka. Instead, negative δ18O anomalies are found close to the east coast of North America, extending as far south as Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, suggesting that the freshwater drainage may have been confined to a long stretch of continental shelf before fully mixing with North Atlantic Ocean water. Here we conduct a sensitivity study that examines the effects of a southerly drainage route on the 8.2 ka event with the ECBilt-CLIO-VECODE model. Hosing experiments of four routing scenarios, where freshwater was introduced to the Labrador Sea in the northerly route and to three different locations along the southerly route, were performed to investigate the routing effects on model responses. The modeling results show that a southerly drainage route is possible but generally yields reduced climatic consequences in comparison to those of a northerly route. This finding implies that more freshwater would be required for a southerly route than for a northerly route to produce the same climate anomaly. The implicated large amount of LAO drainage for a southerly routing scenario is in line with a recent geophysical modelling study of gravitational effects on sea-level change associated with the 8.2 ka event, which suggests that the volume of drainage might be larger than previously estimated.

  4. The Recent Nansen's Ice-Shelf Calving Event : Comparison with Meteo-Climatic and Marine Conditions.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fusco, G.; Cannito, A. C. C.; Marinangeli, L.; Cardinale, M.; Pompilio, L.

    2015-12-01

    Ice shelves are important elements of the Cryosphere representing the interface between ice, atmosphere and ocean. They are also the mean to discharge ice from the interior ice sheets contributing to the continental ice mass balance. A sudden change in volume and extension of both ice shelves and floating glacier tongues can rapidly increase the ice streams speed and the ice sheets flow variability.The Nansen ice shelf represent a particular sensible interface between the floating ice and the Terra Nova Bay polynya, a sea area that remains ice-free for almost all the winter time , thus being one of the major responsible of the production of the Antarctic bottom water. Remote sensing technologies gave us the opportunity to observe and investigate on the formation and evolution of an incipient crevasse on the Nansen Ice Shelf, starting from 1999. The crack showed a steady and slow increase in length and rotation up to 2011 and then underwent an abrupt evolution. During the 2014 winter season, the crack reached its maximum elongation and the detachment of large tabular bergs seems to be very close. This should be the first observation of a detachment of large tabular bergs from the Nansen Ice Shelf since the beginning of satellite observations and is an opportunity to investigate complex processes. We analyzed the last ten years record of climate data over the Southern ocean to evaluate the relationships between the intense cyclonic activity, synoptic and mesoscale systems, ocean swells and calving events. We used ECMWF ERA-interim global atmospheric reanalysis model, Landsat images and in situ weather observations from AWS of the Italian Antarctic Program deployed over the Terra Nova Bay cost. Our preliminary results show a strong correlation between the occurrence of some anomalous meteorological configurations over the Southern Ocean and the sudden grow of the monitored crack in the ice shelf. If confirmed, together with this new arrangement of the cryosphere, some

  5. Atlantic Warm Pool Trigger for the Younger Dryas Climate Event

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abdul, N. A.; Mortlock, R. A.; Wright, J. D.; Fairbanks, R. G.; Teneva, L. T.

    2011-12-01

    There is growing evidence that variability in the size and heat content of the tropical Atlantic Warm Pool impacts circum-North Atlantic climate via the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation mode (Wang et al., 2008). The Atlantic Warm Pool spans the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and the western tropical North Atlantic. Barbados is located near the center of the tropical Atlantic Warm Pool and coupled ocean models suggest that Barbados remains near the center of the tropical Atlantic Warm Pool under varying wind stress simulations. Measurements of the oxygen isotope paleothermometer in Acropora palmata coral species recovered from cores offshore Barbados, show a 3oC monotonic decrease in sea surface temperature from 13106 ± 83 to 12744 ± 61 years before present (errors given as 2 sigma). This interval corresponds to a sea level rise from 71.4 meters to 67.1 meters below present levels at Barbados. The 3oC temperature decrease is captured in eight A. palmata specimens that are in stratigraphic sequence, 230Th/234U dated, and analyzed for oxygen isotopes. All measurements are replicated. We are confident that this is the warm pool equivalent of the Younger Dryas climate event. The initiation of this temperature drop in the Atlantic Warm Pool predates the Younger Dryas start in Greenland ice cores, reported to start at 12896 ± 138 years (relative to AD 2000) (Rasmussen et al., 2006), while few other Younger Dryas climate records are dated with similar accuracy to make the comparison. Rasmussen, S.O., Andersen, K.K., Svensson, A.M., Steffensen, J.P., Vinther, B.M., Clausen, H.B., Siggaard-Andersen, M.L., Johnsen, S.J., Larsen, L.B., Dahl-Jensen, D., Bigler, M., Röthlisberger, R., Fischer, H., Goto-Azuma, K., Hansson, M.E., and Ruth, U., 2006, A new Greenland ice core chronology for the last glacial termination: J. Geophys. Res., v. 111, p. D06102. Wang, C., Lee, S.-K., and Enfield, D.B., 2008, Atlantic Warm Pool acting as a link between Atlantic Multidecadal

  6. Stratification of surface waters during the last glacial millennial climatic events: a key factor in subsurface and deep-water mass dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wary, M.; Eynaud, F.; Sabine, M.; Zaragosi, S.; Rossignol, L.; Malaizé, B.; Palis, E.; Zumaque, J.; Caulle, C.; Penaud, A.; Michel, E.; Charlier, K.

    2015-11-01

    The last glacial period was punctuated by abrupt climatic events with extrema known as Heinrich and Dansgaard-Oeschger events. These millennial events have been the subject of many paleoreconstructions and model experiments in the past decades, but yet the hydrological processes involved remain elusive. In the present work, high-resolution analyses were conducted on the 12-42 ka BP section of core MD99-2281 retrieved southwest of the Faeroe Islands, and combined with analyses conducted in two previous studies (Zumaque et al., 2012; Caulle et al., 2013). Such a multiproxy approach, coupling micropaleontological, geochemical and sedimentological analyses, allows us to track surface, subsurface, and deep hydrological processes occurring during these rapid climatic changes. Records indicate that the coldest episodes of the studied period (Greenland stadials and Heinrich stadials) were characterized by a strong stratification of surface waters. This surface stratification seems to have played a key role in the dynamics of subsurface and deep-water masses. Indeed, periods of high surface stratification are marked by a coupling of subsurface and deep circulations which sharply weaken at the beginning of stadials, while surface conditions progressively deteriorate throughout these cold episodes; conversely, periods of decreasing surface stratification (Greenland interstadials) are characterized by a coupling of surface and deep hydrological processes, with progressively milder surface conditions and gradual intensification of the deep circulation, while the vigor of the subsurface northward Atlantic flow remains constantly high. Our results also reveal different and atypical hydrological signatures during Heinrich stadials (HSs): while HS1 and HS4 exhibit a "usual" scheme with reduced overturning circulation, a relatively active North Atlantic circulation seems to have prevailed during HS2, and HS3 seems to have experienced a re-intensification of this circulation during

  7. Stratification of surface waters during the last glacial millennial climatic events: a key factor in subsurface and deep water mass dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wary, Mélanie; Eynaud, Frédérique; Sabine, Marjolaine; Zaragosi, Sébastien; Rossignol, Linda; Malaize, Bruno; Palis, Edouard; Zumaque, Jena; Caulle, Clémence; Penaud, Aurélie; Michel, Elisabeth; Charlier, Karine

    2015-04-01

    The last glacial period was punctuated by abrupt climatic events with extrema known as Heinrich events (HEs) and Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) cycles. These millennial events have been the subject of many paleoreconstructions and model experiments in the past decades, but yet the hydrological processes involved remain elusive. In the present work, high resolution analyses were conducted on the 12-42 ka BP section of core MD99-2281 retrieved Southwest off Faeroes. Our multiproxy approach, coupling micropaleontological, geochemical and sedimentological analyses, allows us to track surface, subsurface, and deep hydrological processes occurring during these rapid climatic changes. Records indicate that the coldest episodes of the studied period (Greenland stadials and HEs) were characterized by a strong stratification of surface waters. This surface stratification seems to have played a key role in the dynamics of subsurface and deep water masses. Indeed, periods of high surface stratification are marked by a coupling of subsurface and deep circulations which sharply weaken at the beginning of stadials; simultaneously, surface conditions progressively deteriorate throughout these cold episodes. At the opposite, periods of decreasing surface stratification (Greenland interstadials) are characterized by a coupling of surface and deep hydrological processes with progressively milder surface conditions and gradual intensification of the deep circulation; at the same time, the vigor of the subsurface Atlantic inflow remains constantly high. In addition to this remarkable oceanographical scheme, our results also reveal different and atypical hydrological signatures for Heinrich events 2 and 3. Our findings thus bring valuable information to better understand hydrological processes occurring in a key area during the abrupt climatic shifts of the last glacial period.

  8. Stratification of surface waters during the last glacial millennial climatic events: a key factor in subsurface and deep water mass dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wary, M.; Eynaud, F.; Marjolaine, S.; Zaragosi, S.; Rossignol, L.; Malaizé, B.; Palis, E.; Zumaque, J.; Caulle, C.; Penaud, A.; Michel, E.; Charlier, K.

    2015-05-01

    The last glacial period was punctuated by abrupt climatic events with extrema known as Heinrich Events and Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles. These millennial events have been the subject of many paleoreconstructions and model experiments in the past decades, but yet the hydrological processes involved remain elusive. In the present work, high resolution analyses were conducted on the 12-42 ka BP section of core MD99-2281 retrieved Southwest off Faeroes. Our multiproxy approach, coupling micropaleontological, geochemical and sedimentological analyses, allows us to track surface, subsurface, and deep hydrological processes occurring during these rapid climatic changes. Records indicate that the coldest episodes of the studied period (Greenland stadials and Heinrich stadials) were characterized by a strong stratification of surface waters. This surface stratification seems to have played a key role in the dynamics of subsurface and deep water masses. Indeed, periods of high surface stratification are marked by a coupling of subsurface and deep circulations which sharply weaken at the beginning of stadials while surface conditions progressively deteriorate throughout these cold episodes; at the opposite, periods of decreasing surface stratification (Greenland interstadials) are characterized by a coupling of surface and deep hydrological processes with progressively milder surface conditions and gradual intensification of the deep circulation while the vigor of the subsurface Atlantic inflow remains constantly high. Our results also reveal different and atypical hydrological signatures during Heinrich stadials (HS): while HS1 and HS4 exhibit a "usual" scheme with reduced overturning circulation, a relatively active North Atlantic circulation seems to have prevailed during HS2, and HS3 seems to have experienced a re-intensification of this circulation at mid-event. Our findings thus bring valuable information to better understand hydrological processes occurring in a key area

  9. The "New Climate" New Atmospheric Events and "New Climate Risks": The case of Morocco

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karrouk, M. S.

    2015-12-01

    Since the end of last century, qualified meteorological events of "exceptional" causing floods have ceased to occur in Morocco and elsewhere, with a recurrence increasingly high, prompting to wonder about the "new" mode of climate's hydrothermal functioning inducing torrential rains, as well as its effect on the environment and societies.The latest event is the disaster of November 2014 flooding in southern Morocco, which is due especially to the non usual rains return.Weather conditions were marked by enhanced Meridian Atmospheric Circulation (MAC), characterized by persistent high temperatures during the autumn period in Morocco, mainly south of the Atlas, combined by the intrusion of a cold drop in the beginning of the event on 11.17.2014, and straightforward installation of a planetary valley across the Moroccan coast on 11.24.2014, which has evolved into storm (Xandra) in which depression has reached the surprising value of 975 hPa on 11.28.2014.Human and material damage caused by this flood are impressive: people died, roads, bridges and crops have been destroyed, overwhelmed dams. It has been a catastrophe.This event and others like it (Mohammedia 2002, Tangier 2008, Gharb 2009-2010, Casablanca 2010), must be considered as references for the simulation of future situations, and integration into development plans on future.This communication aims to identify the processes and conditions that have generated these events causing floods, the "exceptional" characteristics of recorded rainfall, the spatial and temporal distribution of events. Those floods affect the whole country, especially low areas, foothills and the mouths of rivers. There are the most vulnerable locations mainly on the autumn which is the most exposed to torrential rainfall season !! ... Etc.

  10. Impacts of different climate change regimes and extreme climatic events on an alpine meadow community.

    PubMed

    Alatalo, Juha M; Jägerbrand, Annika K; Molau, Ulf

    2016-01-01

    Climate variability is expected to increase in future but there exist very few experimental studies that apply different warming regimes on plant communities over several years. We studied an alpine meadow community under three warming regimes over three years. Treatments consisted of (a) a constant level of warming with open-top chambers (ca. 1.9 °C above ambient), (b) yearly stepwise increases in warming (increases of ca. 1.0, 1.9 and 3.5 °C), and (c) pulse warming, a single first-year pulse event of warming (increase of ca. 3.5 °C). Pulse warming and stepwise warming was hypothesised to cause distinct first-year and third-year effects, respectively. We found support for both hypotheses; however, the responses varied among measurement levels (whole community, canopy, bottom layer, and plant functional groups), treatments, and time. Our study revealed complex responses of the alpine plant community to the different experimentally imposed climate warming regimes. Plant cover, height and biomass frequently responded distinctly to the constant level of warming, the stepwise increase in warming and the extreme pulse-warming event. Notably, we found that stepwise warming had an accumulating effect on biomass, the responses to the different warming regimes varied among functional groups, and the short-term perturbations had negative effect on species richness and diversity. PMID:26888225

  11. Impacts of different climate change regimes and extreme climatic events on an alpine meadow community

    PubMed Central

    Alatalo, Juha M.; Jägerbrand, Annika K.; Molau, Ulf

    2016-01-01

    Climate variability is expected to increase in future but there exist very few experimental studies that apply different warming regimes on plant communities over several years. We studied an alpine meadow community under three warming regimes over three years. Treatments consisted of (a) a constant level of warming with open-top chambers (ca. 1.9 °C above ambient), (b) yearly stepwise increases in warming (increases of ca. 1.0, 1.9 and 3.5 °C), and (c) pulse warming, a single first-year pulse event of warming (increase of ca. 3.5 °C). Pulse warming and stepwise warming was hypothesised to cause distinct first-year and third-year effects, respectively. We found support for both hypotheses; however, the responses varied among measurement levels (whole community, canopy, bottom layer, and plant functional groups), treatments, and time. Our study revealed complex responses of the alpine plant community to the different experimentally imposed climate warming regimes. Plant cover, height and biomass frequently responded distinctly to the constant level of warming, the stepwise increase in warming and the extreme pulse-warming event. Notably, we found that stepwise warming had an accumulating effect on biomass, the responses to the different warming regimes varied among functional groups, and the short-term perturbations had negative effect on species richness and diversity PMID:26888225

  12. Impacts of different climate change regimes and extreme climatic events on an alpine meadow community

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alatalo, Juha M.; Jägerbrand, Annika K.; Molau, Ulf

    2016-02-01

    Climate variability is expected to increase in future but there exist very few experimental studies that apply different warming regimes on plant communities over several years. We studied an alpine meadow community under three warming regimes over three years. Treatments consisted of (a) a constant level of warming with open-top chambers (ca. 1.9 °C above ambient), (b) yearly stepwise increases in warming (increases of ca. 1.0, 1.9 and 3.5 °C), and (c) pulse warming, a single first-year pulse event of warming (increase of ca. 3.5 °C). Pulse warming and stepwise warming was hypothesised to cause distinct first-year and third-year effects, respectively. We found support for both hypotheses; however, the responses varied among measurement levels (whole community, canopy, bottom layer, and plant functional groups), treatments, and time. Our study revealed complex responses of the alpine plant community to the different experimentally imposed climate warming regimes. Plant cover, height and biomass frequently responded distinctly to the constant level of warming, the stepwise increase in warming and the extreme pulse-warming event. Notably, we found that stepwise warming had an accumulating effect on biomass, the responses to the different warming regimes varied among functional groups, and the short-term perturbations had negative effect on species richness and diversity

  13. Understanding Abrupt, Natural Climate Variability Post-Industrial Revolution from the Subtropical Eastern Pacific: A Novel High Resolution Alkenone-derived Sea Surface Temperature Record

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kelly, C. S.; O'Mara, N. A.; Herbert, T.; Abella-Gutiérrez, J. L.; Herguera, J. C.

    2015-12-01

    Despite the ocean's importance in global biogeochemical feedbacks and heat storage, there is still a paucity of decadally-resolved sea surface temperature (SST) records to complement lacustrine and dendrological records of recent paleoclimate. Natural climate variability on multidecadal timescales is dominated by internal ocean circulation dynamics and feedbacks, and it is therefore imperative to employ marine proxies to reconstruct high resolution climate change. The timescales of this ocean-induced natural climate variability can be broken down into a few characteristic climate modes. Pressing questions about these modes include their stationarity in frequency and amplitude over time, in addition to the hypothesis that anthropogenic climate change has altered their behavior in comparison to natural variability. To pursue these questions, we must discern and analyze suitable climate archives in regions where modes of interest dominate modern climate variability. The region of Baja California, Mexico exhibits exceptional teleconnection to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Local, dramatic effects of ENSO and PDO on the marine biology and economy underline the importance of regional paleoclimate records from the Baja peninsula. Here, we present a high-resolution alkenone-derived SST reconstruction from the Industrial Revolution through the year 2000 by analysis of laminated box and Kasten sediment cores at Site PCM 00-78 (25.18°N, 112.66°W) in the subtropical eastern Pacific at a depth of 540 meters. Our SST record corresponds with NOAA extended reconstructed sea surface temperature, providing a robust basis for organic geochemical marine climatic reconstructions on timescales usually accessible only through speleothems, coral density bands, tree rings, and the like. Accordingly, based on this comparison to the historical data we expect our SST record may provide a more robust record of inter and multidecadal

  14. Investigating the impact of Lake Agassiz drainage routes on the 8.2 ka cold event with climate modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Y.-X.; Renssen, H.; Wiersma, A. P.; Törnqvist, T. E.

    2009-03-01

    The 8.2 ka event is the most prominent abrupt climate change in the Holocene and is widely believed to result from catastrophic drainage of proglacial lakes Agassiz and Ojibway (LAO) that routed through the Hudson Bay and the Labrador Sea into the North Atlantic Ocean, and perturbed Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC). One key assumption of this triggering mechanism is that the LAO freshwater drainage was spread over the Labrador Sea. Recent data, however, show no evidence of lowered δ18O values from the open Labrador Sea around 8.2 ka. Instead, negative δ18O anomalies are found close to the east coast of North America, extending as far south as Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, suggesting that the freshwater drainage was probably confined to a long stretch of continental shelf before fully mixing with North Atlantic Ocean water. Here we conduct a sensitivity study that examines the effects of this southerly drainage route on the 8.2 ka event with the ECBilt-CLIO-VECODE model. Hosing experiments of four different routing scenarios, where freshwater was introduced to the Labrador Sea in the northerly route (R1) and to three different locations (Grand Banks - R2, George Bank - R3, and Cape Hatteras - R4) on the southerly route, were performed with 0.45 m sea-level equivalent (SLE), 0.90 m SLE, and 1.35 m SLE of freshwater introduced over 5 years to investigate the routing effects on model responses. The modelling results show that a southerly drainage route is plausible but generally yields reduced climatic consequences in comparison to those of a northerly route. This finding implies that more freshwater would be required for a southerly route than for a northerly route to produce the same climate anomaly.

  15. Abrupt climate variability since the last deglaciation based on a high-resolution, multi-proxy peat record from NW Iran: The hand that rocked the Cradle of Civilization?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharifi, Arash; Pourmand, Ali; Canuel, Elizabeth A.; Ferer-Tyler, Erin; Peterson, Larry C.; Aichner, Bernhard; Feakins, Sarah J.; Daryaee, Touraj; Djamali, Morteza; Beni, Abdolmajid Naderi; Lahijani, Hamid A. K.; Swart, Peter K.

    2015-09-01

    We present a high-resolution (sub-decadal to centennial), multi-proxy reconstruction of aeolian input and changes in palaeohydrological conditions based on a 13000 Yr record from Neor Lake's peripheral peat in NW Iran. Variations in relative abundances of refractory (Al, Zr, Ti, and Si), redox sensitive (Fe) and mobile (K and Rb) elements, total organic carbon (TOC), δ13CTOC, compound-specific leaf wax hydrogen isotopes (δD), carbon accumulation rates and dust fluxes presented here fill a large gap in the existing terrestrial paleoclimate records from the interior of West Asia. Our results suggest that a transition occurred from dry and dusty conditions during the Younger Dryas (YD) to a relatively wetter period with higher carbon accumulation rates and low aeolian input during the early Holocene (9000-6000 Yr BP). This period was followed by relatively drier and dustier conditions during middle to late Holocene, which is consistent with orbital changes in insolation that affected much of the northern hemisphere. Numerous episodes of high aeolian input spanning a few decades to millennia are prevalent during the middle to late Holocene. Wavelet analysis of variations in Ti abundances as a proxy for aeolian input revealed notable periodicities at 230, 320, and 470 years with significant periodicities centered around 820, 1550, and 3110 years over the last 13000 years. Comparison with palaeoclimate archives from West Asia, the North Atlantic and African lakes point to a teleconnection between North Atlantic climate and the interior of West Asia during the last glacial termination and the Holocene epoch. We further assess the potential role of abrupt climate change on early human societies by comparing our record of palaeoclimate variability with historical, geological and archaeological archives from this region. The terrestrial record from this study confirms previous evidence from marine sediments of the Arabian Sea that suggested climate change influenced the

  16. Climate Impact Reporter: A New Tool for Archiving and Displaying Climate-related Impacts to Extreme Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Umphlett, N.; Shulski, M.; Lahowetz, J.; Sorensen, W.

    2014-12-01

    The High Plains Regional Climate Center (HPRCC) has been providing users with custom climate services for over 25 years. Stakeholder needs in the High Plains Region have evolved over time from simple data requests to inquiries about the impacts of various climate-related events. At this time, climate impacts may be reported in numerous locations such as newspapers, scholarly journals, and extension articles. In order to meet the increasing demand for climate impact information, HPRCC is beta-testing an online tool which synthesizes, archives, and displays impacts related to extreme climate events from multiple sources. The tool is intended to fulfill the needs of two general types of users - those who need a place to archive climate impact information and those seeking such information. As such, there are two main components to the tool: 1) a back-end interface where an impact information database is populated and 2) a front-end interface where users may browse the impacts. On the front-end, users can select an area (i.e. river basin, state, county warning area) and search for climate-related impacts within that area. Key impacts include the following sectors: agriculture, ecosystems, energy, human health, society, transportation, and water resources. In this regard, information can also be useful for future National Climate Assessment activities. Ultimately, an understanding of impacts to extreme events by sector will provide critical information for improved decision-making and adaptation strategies.

  17. Multiple abrupt climate changes in the western hemisphere during the past 50,000 years, and their implications concerning the response of vegetation to changing atmospheric chemistry

    SciTech Connect

    Jacobson, G.L. Jr.; Grimm, E.C.

    1995-06-01

    Independent evidence spanning the last 50,000 years from ice cores, ocean sediments, and detailed glacial-geologic investigations implies multiple. large warm/cool oscillations with a frequency of ca. 3000 years through much of the Western Hemisphere. Paleoecological studies at sites in North America and the west coast of South America reveal major, synchronous changes in vegetation corresponding to many of these high-frequency changes in climate. Sequences on both sides of the equator culminate in substantial warming at 14 ka BP and a brief cooling at ca. 11 ka BP just prior to the final onset of Holocene warming. The high-frequency climate oscillations are not explained by {open_quotes}Milankovitch{close_quotes} cycles in solar insolation or by changes in thermohaline ocean circulation. Rather, these changes in climate and the attendant synchronous, broad-scale responses of vegetation indicate a global atmospheric forcing. However, that forcing is apparently also distinct from changing concentrations of atmospheric CO2 (as represented in the Vostok ice-core data). High-resolution CO2 data, such as that from the new Greenland ice cores, will be required before critical assessments of plant-physiological responses to past atmospheric changes can be carried out.

  18. Climate Change Extreme Events: Meeting the Information Needs of Water Resource Managers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quay, R.; Garfin, G. M.; Dominguez, F.; Hirschboeck, K. K.; Woodhouse, C. A.; Guido, Z.; White, D. D.

    2013-12-01

    Information about climate has long been used by water managers to develop short term and long term plans and strategies for regional and local water resources. Inherent within longer term forecasts is an element of uncertainty, which is particularly evident in Global Climate model results for precipitation. For example in the southwest estimates in the flow of the Colorado River based on GCM results indicate changes from 120% or current flow to 60%. Many water resource managers are now using global climate model down scaled estimates results as indications of potential climate change as part of that planning. They are addressing the uncertainty within these estimates by using an anticipatory planning approach looking at a range of possible futures. One aspect of climate that is important for such planning are estimates of future extreme storm (short term) and drought (long term) events. However, the climate science of future possible changes in extreme events is less mature than general climate change science. At a recent workshop among climate scientists and water managers in the southwest, it was concluded the science of climate change extreme events is at least a decade away from being robust enough to be useful for water managers in their water resource management activities. However, it was proposed that there are existing estimates and records of past flooding and drought events that could be combined with general climate change science to create possible future events. These derived events could be of sufficient detail to be used by water resource managers until such time that the science of extreme events is able to provide more detailed estimates. Based on the results of this workshop and other work being done by the Decision Center for a Desert City at Arizona State University and the Climate Assessment for the Southwest center at University of Arizona., this article will 1) review what are the extreme event data needs of Water Resource Managers in the

  19. Climatic Changes in Lebanon, Predicting Uncertain Precipitation Events. Do climatic cycles exist?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arkadan, A. R. M.

    2009-04-01

    Lebanon Mountain Range. Analysis of precipitation data is important in predicting the occurrence of uncertain events with time and to determine if there is a meteorological cycle in which periods of heavy precipitation or drought events are part of a climatic cycle. Because of the extreme variability of precipitation events it is necessary to use several methods to estimate the processes and the force behind it if present. Methods such as moving average, probability of exceedence, coherent rainfall and statistics concepts are used to aid in defining theses events. Results showed that a possible cyclicity occurs at a return period of 14 years but of low coherence. This could be related to the amount of data which covers a period of 35 years, which might not be enough to determine whether a climatic cyclicity controls the prevailed climatic conditions over Lebanon.

  20. Interactive effects of elevation, species richness and extreme climatic events on plant-pollinator networks.

    PubMed

    Hoiss, Bernhard; Krauss, Jochen; Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf

    2015-11-01

    Plant-pollinator interactions are essential for the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, but are increasingly affected by global change. The risks to such mutualistic interactions from increasing temperature and more frequent extreme climatic events such as drought or advanced snow melt are assumed to depend on network specialization, species richness, local climate and associated parameters such as the amplitude of extreme events. Even though elevational gradients provide valuable model systems for climate change and are accompanied by changes in species richness, responses of plant-pollinator networks to climatic extreme events under different environmental and biotic conditions are currently unknown. Here, we show that elevational climatic gradients, species richness and experimentally simulated extreme events interactively change the structure of mutualistic networks in alpine grasslands. We found that the degree of specialization in plant-pollinator networks (H2') decreased with elevation. Nonetheless, network specialization increased after advanced snow melt at high elevations, whereas changes in network specialization after drought were most pronounced at sites with low species richness. Thus, changes in network specialization after extreme climatic events depended on climatic context and were buffered by high species richness. In our experiment, only generalized plant-pollinator networks changed in their degree of specialization after climatic extreme events. This indicates that contrary to our assumptions, network generalization may not always foster stability of mutualistic interaction networks. PMID:26332102

  1. Helpful and Hindering Multicultural Events in Group Supervision: Climate and Multicultural Competence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kaduvettoor, Anju; O'Shaughnessy, Tiffany; Mori, Yoko; Beverly, Clyde, III; Weatherford, Ryan D.; Ladany, Nicholas

    2009-01-01

    This study examines the relationship between multicultural events in group supervision, group climate, and supervisee multicultural competence using a mixed qualitative/quantitative design. The discovery-oriented approach yielded 196 helpful and hindering multicultural events among 136 participants. The most common events included multicultural…

  2. Projections of Extreme Precipitation Events in India from regional and global climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Modi, P. A.; Shah, R.; Mishra, V.

    2014-12-01

    Extreme precipitation events pose tremendous challenges for humans and infrastructure. Precipitation extremes are projected to increase under the future climate. We examined changes in extreme precipitation events under the projected future climate in India from regional and global climate models. We obtained CMIP5 projections for 32 general circulation models (GCMs), while data for regional climate models (RCMs) were obtained from the CORDEX South Asia program. The data were analyzed for the historic (1971-1999) and projected future climate (2006-2060) for annual maximum precipitation, frequency of extreme precipitation events, mean intensity of top five precipitation events, and ratio of heavy to non-heavy precipitation. Out of the 32 GCMs, we selected the four best GCMs (BEST-GCMs) that performed better for extreme precipitation events in India. Moreover, we selected the host GCMs (HOST-GCMs) that were used as a boundary condition for the CORDEX-RCMs. We finally compared projections of extreme precipitation events from the BEST-GCMs, HOST-GCMs, and CORDEX-RCMs under the future climate. We find that the CORDEX-RCMs show a large inter-model variation leading to a high uncertainty in projections. Overall, most of the models indicate increases in extreme precipitation events under the projected future climate predominantly in the Southern peninsula.

  3. Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters in a Changing Climate: Lessons for Adaptation to Climate Change (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mastrandrea, M.; Field, C. B.; Mach, K. J.; Barros, V.

    2013-12-01

    The IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, published in 2012, integrates expertise in climate science, disaster risk reduction, and adaptation to inform discussions on how to reduce and manage the risks of extreme events and disasters in a changing climate. Impacts and the risks of disasters are determined by the interaction of the physical characteristics of weather and climate events with the vulnerability of exposed human society and ecosystems. The Special Report evaluates the factors that make people and infrastructure vulnerable to extreme events, trends in disaster losses, recent and future changes in the relationship between climate change and extremes, and experience with a wide range of options used by institutions, organizations, and communities to reduce exposure and vulnerability, and improve resilience, to climate extremes. Actions ranging from incremental improvements in governance and technology to more transformational changes are assessed. The Special Report provides a knowledge base that is also relevant to the broader context of managing the risks of climate change through mitigation, adaptation, and other responses, assessed in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), to be completed in 2014. These themes include managing risks through an iterative process involving learning about risks and the effectiveness of responses, employing a portfolio of actions tailored to local circumstances but with links from local to global scales, and considering additional benefits of actions such as improving livelihoods and well-being. The Working Group II contribution to the AR5 also examines the ways that extreme events and their impacts contribute to understanding of vulnerabilities and adaptation deficits in the context of climate change, the extent to which impacts of climate change are experienced through changes in the frequency and severity of extremes as opposed to mean changes

  4. Two Extreme Climate Events of the Last 1000 Years Recorded in Himalayan and Andean Ice Cores: Impacts on Humans

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thompson, L. G.; Mosley-Thompson, E. S.; Davis, M. E.; Kenny, D. V.; Lin, P.

    2013-12-01

    In the last few decades numerous studies have linked pandemic influenza, cholera, malaria, and viral pneumonia, as well as droughts, famines and global crises, to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Two annually resolved ice core records, one from Dasuopu Glacier in the Himalaya and one from the Quelccaya Ice Cap in the tropical Peruvian Andes provide an opportunity to investigate these relationships on opposite sides of the Pacific Basin for the last 1000 years. The Dasuopu record provides an annual history from 1440 to 1997 CE and a decadally resolved record from 1000 to 1440 CE while the Quelccaya ice core provides annual resolution over the last 1000 years. Major ENSO events are often recorded in the oxygen isotope, insoluble dust, and chemical records from these cores. Here we investigate outbreaks of diseases, famines and global crises during two of the largest events recorded in the chemistry of these cores, particularly large peaks in the concentrations of chloride (Cl-) and fluoride (Fl-). One event is centered on 1789 to 1800 CE and the second begins abruptly in 1345 and tapers off after 1360 CE. These Cl- and F- peaks represent major droughts and reflect the abundance of continental atmospheric dust, derived in part from dried lake beds in drought stricken regions upwind of the core sites. For Dasuopu the likely sources are in India while for Quelccaya the sources would be the Andean Altiplano. Both regions are subject to drought conditions during the El Niño phase of the ENSO cycle. These two events persist longer (10 to 15 years) than today's typical ENSO events in the Pacific Ocean Basin. The 1789 to 1800 CE event was associated with a very strong El Niño event and was coincidental with the Boji Bara famine resulting from extended droughts that led to over 600,000 deaths in central India by 1792. Similarly extensive droughts are documented in Central and South America. Likewise, the 1345 to 1360 CE event, although poorly documented

  5. Communicating Climate Uncertainties: Challenges and Opportunities Related to Spatial Scales, Extreme Events, and the Warming 'Hiatus'

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Casola, J. H.; Huber, D.

    2013-12-01

    Many media, academic, government, and advocacy organizations have achieved sophistication in developing effective messages based on scientific information, and can quickly translate salient aspects of emerging climate research and evolving observations. However, there are several ways in which valid messages can be misconstrued by decision makers, leading them to inaccurate conclusions about the risks associated with climate impacts. Three cases will be discussed: 1) Issues of spatial scale in interpreting climate observations: Local climate observations may contradict summary statements about the effects of climate change on larger regional or global spatial scales. Effectively addressing these differences often requires communicators to understand local and regional climate drivers, and the distinction between a 'signal' associated with climate change and local climate 'noise.' Hydrological statistics in Missouri and California are shown to illustrate this case. 2) Issues of complexity related to extreme events: Climate change is typically invoked following a wide range of damaging meteorological events (e.g., heat waves, landfalling hurricanes, tornadoes), regardless of the strength of the relationship between anthropogenic climate change and the frequency or severity of that type of event. Examples are drawn from media coverage of several recent events, contrasting useful and potentially confusing word choices and frames. 3) Issues revolving around climate sensitivity: The so-called 'pause' or 'hiatus' in global warming has reverberated strongly through political and business discussions of climate change. Addressing the recent slowdown in warming yields an important opportunity to raise climate literacy in these communities. Attempts to use recent observations as a wedge between climate 'believers' and 'deniers' is likely to be counterproductive. Examples are drawn from Congressional testimony and media stories. All three cases illustrate ways that decision

  6. Globally synchronous ice core volcanic tracers and abrupt cooling during the last glacial period

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bay, R.C.; Bramall, N.E.; Price, P.B.; Clow, G.D.; Hawley, R.L.; Udisti, R.; Castellano, E.

    2006-01-01

    We perform a Monte Carlo pattern recognition analysis of the coincidence between three regional volcanic histories from ice coring of Greenland and Antarctica over the period 2 to 45 ka, using SO4 anomalies in Greenland and East Antarctica determined by continuous core chemistry, together with West Antarctic volcanic ash layers determined by remote optical borehole logging and core assays. We find that the Antarctic record of volcanism correlates with Glacial abrupt climate change at a 95% to >99.8% (???3??) significance level and that volcanic depositions at the three locations match at levels exceeding 3??, likely indicating that many common horizons represent single eruptive events which dispersed material world wide. These globally coincident volcanics were associated with abrupt cooling, often simultaneous with onsets or sudden intensifications of millennial cold periods. The striking agreement between sites implies that the consistency of current timescales obtained by isotopic and glaciological dating methods is better than estimated. Copyright 2006 by the American Geogphysical Union.

  7. Holocene extreme hydrological events and their climatic implications: evidence from the middle Satluj valley, western Himalaya, India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharma, Shubhra; Shukla, Anil; Marh, Bhupinder; Bartarya, Sukesh; Juyal, Navin

    2016-04-01

    Extreme hydrological events and associated climatic processes are investigated and inferred through palaeoflood deposits preserved in the middle Satluj valley, India. Satluj River is the largest tributary of the Indus River having third largest catchment area in the Himalaya. Both Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and the mid-latitude westerlies contribute to the hydrological budget of the river. The steep southern orographic front prevents the northward penetration of ISM, while the mid-latitude westerlies bring moisture in form of winter snow to the orogenic interiors. It has been observed that the floods in the Himalaya are intimately associated with the variability in the above climate systems. The optical chronology indicates that floods were clustered around three time domains. The oldest flood phase-1 is dated to ˜14-12 ka which climatically occurred during the initiation of the ISM after the Last Glacial Maximum. The second phase-2 is dated between 8-5 ka and is attributed to the moderate ISM. Whereas, the youngest phase-3 is assigned the Little Ice Age (LIA) and were associated with the variability in the mid-latitude westerlies. Geochemical analyses suggest that floods were generated in higher Himalayan crystalline (HHC) zone, as the extreme precipitation destabilised the precipitous slopes creating Landslide induced Lake Outbursts Floods (LLOFs). Further, the average interval between floods has decreased since 14 ka from 500 years, to 250 years and 100 years during respective flood phases. The southern slopes of Himalaya are influenced by both the monsoon and mid-latitude westerlies and any abrupt changes in the circulation pattern were found to associate with heavy rainfall events in this region. Although an interaction between the westerlies and the monsoon is implicated for extreme floods in the western Himalaya. However, exact mechanism of these interactions is still illusive except for the observational based studies which state that extreme floods

  8. A Sustained Greenhouse Climate on Mars following an Impact Event

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Segura, T.; Toon, B.; Colaprete, T.; McKay, C.

    2007-12-01

    The existence of craters of size 200 km and greater proves that large (30-250 km diameter) impacts were abundant in the early history of Mars. Injected water from three sources (the impactor, water innate to the crater, and from melting of the polar caps) provide periods of rain following such impacts. Very hot, global debris blankets are another consequence of these large impacts, and these layers create a thermal pulse that propagates into the subsurface, melting additional water. The melted and precipitated water and debris blanket combine to produce a temporarily altered climate. This research shows time-dependent modeled calculations of this altered climate, and focuses in particular on a possible "runaway" greenhouse state that might be initiated as a result of the additional heat and a sufficiently rapid supply of the melted and precipitated water to the atmosphere. Our model is a 1-D radiative-convective model coupled to a 1-D model of the regolith to calculate the evolution of the surface and subsurface temperatures. The effects of latent heating, cloud condensation, precipitation, and evaporation are included in the model. We also show mathematically how the effects of large asteroid or comet impacts can cause a planet to reach the runaway greenhouse state, and illustrate how this solution is part of a bi-stable climate solution for terrestrial planets. One solution is found when a planet cools from high temperature, the other when the planet warms from a cool state. The hot solution represents a planet in the runaway regime, while the cold solution represents a planet with most of its water condensed at the surface. If a planet cools from a large temperature perturbation, caused by a large impact, it is possible that the planet will remain stable in the runaway climate rather than returning to the low temperature climate state.

  9. A Sustained Greenhouse Climate on Mars following an Impact Event

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Segura, Teresa L.; Toon, B.; Colaprete, A.; McKay, C.

    2007-10-01

    The existence of craters of size 200 km and greater proves that large (30-250 km diameter) impacts were abundant in the early history of Mars. Injected water from three sources (the impactor, water innate to the crater, and from melting of the polar caps) provide periods of rain following such impacts. Very hot, global debris blankets are another consequence of these large impacts, and these layers create a thermal pulse that propagates into the subsurface, melting additional water. The melted and precipitated water and debris blanket combine to produce a temporarily altered climate. This research shows time-dependent modeled calcuations of this altered climate, and focuses in particular on a possible "runaway" greenhouse state that might be initiated as a result of the additional heat and a sufficiently rapid supply of the melted and precipitated water to the atmosphere. Our model is a 1-D radiative-convective model coupled to a 1-D model of the regolith to calculate the evolution of the surface and subsurface temperatures. The effects of latent heating, cloud condensation, precipitation, and evaporation are included in the model. We also show mathematically how the effects of large asteroid or comet impacts can cause a planet to reach the runaway greenhouse state, and illustrate how this solution is part of a bi-stable climate solution for terrestrial planets. One solution is found when a planet cools from high temperature, the other when the planet warms from a cool state. The hot solution represents a planet in the runaway regime, while the cold solution represents a planet with most of its water condensed at the surface. If a planet cools from a large temperature perturbation, caused by a large impact, it is possible that the planet will remain stable in the runaway climate rather than returning to the low temperature climate state.

  10. Potential impacts of afforestation on climate change and extreme events in Nigeria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abiodun, Babatunde J.; Salami, Ayobami T.; Matthew, Olaniran J.; Odedokun, Sola

    2013-07-01

    Afforestation is usually thought as a good approach to mitigate impacts of warming over a region. This study presents an argument that afforestation may have bigger impacts than originally thought by previous studies. The study investigates the impacts of afforestation on future climate and extreme events in Nigeria, using a regional climate model (RegCM3), forced with global climate model simulations. The impacts of seven afforestation options on the near future (2031-2050, under A1B scenario) climate and the extreme events are investigated. RegCM3 replicates essential features in the present-day (1981-2000) climate and the associated extreme events, and adequately simulates the seasonal variations over the ecological zones in the country. However, the model simulates the seasonal climate better over the northern ecological zones than over the southern ecological zones. The simulated spatial distribution of the extreme events agrees well with the observation, though the magnitude of the simulated events is smaller than the observed. The study shows that afforestation in Nigeria could have both positive and negative future impacts on the climate change and extreme events in the country. While afforestation reduces the projected global warming and enhances rainfall over the afforested area (and over coastal zones), it enhances the warming and reduces the rainfall over the north-eastern part of the country. In addition, the afforestation induces more frequent occurrence of extreme rainfall events (flooding) over the coastal region and more frequent occurrence of heat waves and droughts over the semi-arid region. The positive and negative impacts of the afforestation are not limited to Nigeria; they extend to the neighboring countries. While afforestation lowers the warming and enhances rainfall over Benin Republic, it increases the warming and lowers the rainfall over Niger, Chad and Cameroon. The result of the study has important implication for the ongoing climate

  11. Deciphering landscape complexity to predict (non)linear responses to extreme climatic events

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Extreme events are increasing in frequency and magnitude for many landscapes globally. Ecologically, most of the focus on extreme climatic events has been on effects of either short-term pulses (floods, freezes) or long-term drought. Multi-year increases in precipitation are also occurring with litt...

  12. An abrupt change in the African monsoon at the end of the Younger Dryas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Talbot, Michael R.; Filippi, Maria Letizia; Jensen, Niels Bo; Tiercelin, Jean-Jacques

    2007-03-01

    High-resolution studies of variations in the elemental and stable carbon- and nitrogen-isotope composition of organic matter in cores from Lakes Malawi, Tanganyika, and Bosumtwi (tropical Africa) indicate an abrupt change in the wind-driven circulation of these lakes that, within the limits of available chronologies, was contemporaneous with the end of the Younger Dryas in the northern hemisphere. The change was also coincident with shifts in surface winds recorded in cores from off the west and northeast coasts of Africa. A range of other proxies indicate that these changes in wind regime were accompanied by a marked increase in precipitation in the northern tropics. Africa south of ˜5°-10°S, on the other hand, initially suffered drought conditions. Together, the evidence suggests an abrupt northward translation of the African monsoon system at circa 11.5 ± 0.25 ka B.P. The data assembled here contribute to a growing body of work showing that the Younger Dryas was a major climatic excursion in tropical Africa. Furthermore, they add substance to recent suggestions that climatic events in the southern hemisphere may have played a significant role in the abrupt demise of the Younger Dryas.

  13. Subsurface warming in the subpolar North Atlantic during rapid climate events in the Early and Mid-Pleistocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hernández-Almeida, Iván; Sierro, Francisco; Cacho, Isabel; Abel Flores, José

    2014-05-01

    A new high-resolution reconstruction of the temperature and salinity of the subsurface waters using paired Mg/Ca-δ18O measurements on the planktonic foraminifera Neogloboquadrina pachyderma sinistrorsa (sin.) was conducted on a deep-sea sediment core in the subpolar North Atlantic (Site U1314). This study aims to reconstruct millennial-scale subsurface hydrography variations during the Early and Mid-Pleistocene (MIS 31-19). These rapid climate events are characterized by abrupt shifts between warm/cold conditions, and ice-sheet oscillations, as evidenced by major ice rafting events recorded in the North Atlantic sediments (Hernández-Almeida et al., 2012), similar to those found during the Last Glacial period (Marcott et al, 2011). The Mg/Ca derived paleotemperature and salinity oscillations prior and during IRD discharges at Site U1314 are related to changes in intermediate circulation. The increases in Mg/Ca paleotemperatures and salinities during the IRD event are preceded by short episodes of cooling and freshening of subsurface waters. The response of the AMOC to this perturbation is an increased of warm and salty water coming from the south, transported to high latitudes in the North Atlantic beneath the thermocline. This process is accompanied by a southward shift in the convection cell from the Nordic Seas to the subpolar North Atlantic and better ventilation of the North Atlantic at mid-depths. Poleward transport of warm and salty subsurface subtropical waters causes intense basal melting and thinning of marine ice-shelves, that culminates in large-scale instability of the ice sheets, retreat of the grounding line and iceberg discharge. The mechanism proposed involves the coupling of the AMOC with ice-sheet dynamics, and would explain the presence of these fluctuations before the establishment of high-amplitude 100-kyr glacial cycles. Hernández-Almeida, I., Sierro, F.J., Cacho, I., Flores, J.A., 2012. Impact of suborbital climate changes in the North

  14. Extreme temperatures, foundation species, and abrupt ecosystem change: an example from an iconic seagrass ecosystem.

    PubMed

    Thomson, Jordan A; Burkholder, Derek A; Heithaus, Michael R; Fourqurean, James W; Fraser, Matthew W; Statton, John; Kendrick, Gary A

    2015-04-01

    Extreme climatic events can trigger abrupt and often lasting change in ecosystems via the reduction or elimination of foundation (i.e., habitat-forming) species. However, while the frequency/intensity of extreme events is predicted to increase under climate change, the impact of these events on many foundation species and the ecosystems they support remains poorly understood. Here, we use the iconic seagrass meadows of Shark Bay, Western Australia--a relatively pristine subtropical embayment whose dominant, canopy-forming seagrass, Amphibolis antarctica, is a temperate species growing near its low-latitude range limit--as a model system to investigate the impacts of extreme temperatures on ecosystems supported by thermally sensitive foundation species in a changing climate. Following an unprecedented marine heat wave in late summer 2010/11, A. antarctica experienced catastrophic (>90%) dieback in several regions of Shark Bay. Animal-borne video footage taken from the perspective of resident, seagrass-associated megafauna (sea turtles) revealed severe habitat degradation after the event compared with a decade earlier. This reduction in habitat quality corresponded with a decline in the health status of largely herbivorous green turtles (Chelonia mydas) in the 2 years following the heat wave, providing evidence of long-term, community-level impacts of the event. Based on these findings, and similar examples from diverse ecosystems, we argue that a generalized framework for assessing the vulnerability of ecosystems to abrupt change associated with the loss of foundation species is needed to accurately predict ecosystem trajectories in a changing climate. This includes seagrass meadows, which have received relatively little attention in this context. Novel research and monitoring methods, such as the analysis of habitat and environmental data from animal-borne video and data-logging systems, can make an important contribution to this framework. PMID:25145694

  15. Analysis of Extreme Events in Regional Climate Model Simulations for the Pacific Northwest using weatherathome

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mera, R. J.; Mote, P.; Weber, J.

    2011-12-01

    One of the most prominent impacts of climate change over the Pacific Northwest is the potential for an elevated number of extreme precipitation events over the region. Planning for natural hazards such as increasing number of floods related to high-precipitation events have, in general, focused on avoiding development in floodplains and conditioning development to withstand inundation with a minimum of losses. Nationwide, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) estimates that about one quarter of its payments cover damage that has occurred outside mapped floodplains. It is clear that traditional flood-based planning will not be sufficient to predict and avoid future losses resulting from climate-related hazards such as high-precipitation events. In order to address this problem, the present study employs regional climate model output for future climate change scenarios to aid with the development of a map-based inventory of future hazard risks that can contribute to the development of a "planning-scale" decision support system for the Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD). Climate model output is derived from the climateprediction.net (CPDN) weatherathome project, an innovative climate science experiment that utilizes volunteer computers from users worldwide to produce hundreds of thousands superensembles of regional climate simulations of the Western United States climate from 1950 to 2050. The spatial and temporal distribution of extreme weather events are analyzed for the Pacific Northwest to diagnose the model's capabilities as an input for map products such as impacts on hydrology. Special attention is given to intensity and frequency of Atmospheric River events in historical and future climate contexts.

  16. Quantifying the influence of observed global warming on the probability of unprecedented extreme climate events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Rajaratnam, B.; Charland, A.; Haugen, M.; Horton, D. E.; Singh, D.; Swain, D. L.; Tsiang, M.

    2014-12-01

    Now that observed global warming has been clearly attributed to human activities, there has been increasing interest in the extent to which that warming has influenced the occurrence and severity of individual extreme climate events. However, although trends in the extremes of the seasonal- and daily-scale distributions of climate records have been analyzed for many years, quantifying the contribution of observed global warming to individual events that are unprecedented in the observed record presents a particular scientific challenge. We will describe a modified method for leveraging observations and large climate model ensembles to quantify the influence of observed global warming on the probability of unprecedented extreme events. In this approach, we first diagnose the causes of the individual event in order to understand which climate processes to target in the probability quantification. We then use advanced statistical techniques to quantify the uncertainty in the return period of the event in the observed record. We then use large ensembles of climate model simulations to quantify the distribution of return period ratios between the current level of climate forcing and the pre-industrial climate forcing. We will compare the structure of this approach to other approaches that exist in the literature. We will then examine a set of individual extreme events that have been analyzed in the literature, and compare the results of our approach with those that have been previously published. We will conclude with a discussion of the observed agreement and disagreement between the different approaches, including implications for interpretation of the role of human forcing in shaping unprecedented extreme events.

  17. Climatic extreme events combine with impacts of gradual climate change: recent evidence from the Andes and the Alps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huggel, Christian; Giráldez, Claudia; Haeberli, Wilfried; Schneider, Demian; Frey, Holger; Schaub, Yvonne; Cochachin, Alejo; Portocarrero, Cesar; García, Javier; Guillén Ludeña, Sebastián; Rohrer, Mario; McArdell, Brian

    2013-04-01

    In high-mountain areas climatic extreme events can combine with effects of gradual climate change to form cascading processes, occasionally resulting in major disasters. Heavy precipitation events thereby evolve into mass movement processes such as landslides, avalanches and debris flows that can devastate urban areas at the foot of mountains. The transformation and interaction of processes are complex and often not sufficiently understood or difficult to predict, and thus more research is needed. Of particular concern are landslide impacts into existing or new glacier lakes from destabilized mountain flanks in relation with glacier retreat and permafrost degradation. Here we analyze a number of recent events in the Andes of Peru and compare them with observations in the Alps in Europe. In southern Peru debris flow events that were among the largest recent ones worldwide remained largely unstudied although they destroyed entire towns and important traffic and energy infrastructure. We used a combination of field work, satellite images, satellite rainfall data and available meteorological stations as well as numerical modeling to reconstruct origin, type and effect of these events. Large sediment deposits resulting from deglaciation processes represent a key factor, and were mobilized by heavy rainfall events. Tens of millions of m3 sediment were transported downstream in single events, with compound effects on downstream river systems causing destruction and inundation. Other recent events in Peru underline the importance of a cascade of process interaction, with ice avalanches impacting glacier lakes, triggering flood waves and debris flows that travel downstream and eventually impact urban areas. In the Alps recent observations indicate an increase of occurrence of complex compound processes with short-term climatic events overprinting on longer-term effects of gradual climate change (e.g. from glacier retreat and permafrost degradation). Especially important are

  18. Abrupt shifts in Horn of Africa hydroclimate and the influence of the Indian Ocean (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tierney, J. E.; deMenocal, P. B.

    2013-12-01

    The timing and abruptness with which Northeast Africa transitioned into and out of the Early Holocene African Humid Period is a subject of ongoing debate, with direct consequences for our understanding of climate stability and paleoenvironments. Here we present a new proxy record of regional hydroclimate, based on the hydrogen isotopic composition of leaf waxes, from a marine core in the Gulf of Aden that documents rapid, century-scale transitions into and out of the African Humid Period across the Horn of Africa. The Gulf of Aden record also documents large drying events during the last deglacial, synchronous with Heinrich Event 1 and the Younger Dryas. Similar and generally synchronous abrupt transitions at other East African sites suggest that rapid shifts in hydroclimate are regionally coherent. In addition, the termination of the African Humid Period in East Africa is synchronous with the termination along the western Saharan margin. A probabilistic analysis of the abruptness of the transitions in East Africa suggests that they likely occurred within centuries, underscoring the sensitivity of northeast African hydroclimate to external forcings. We speculate that the non-linear behavior of hydroclimate in the Horn of Africa is related to convection thresholds in the western Indian Ocean, and test this hypothesis with preliminary SST proxy data.

  19. Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation. Special report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

    SciTech Connect

    Field, C.B.; Barros, V.; Stocker, T.F.

    2012-07-01

    This Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) has been jointly coordinated by Working Groups I (WGI) and II (WGII) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The report focuses on the relationship between climate change and extreme weather and climate events, the impacts of such events, and the strategies to manage the associated risks. This Special Report, in particular, contributes to frame the challenge of dealing with extreme weather and climate events as an issue in decision making under uncertainty, analyzing response in the context of risk management. The report consists of nine chapters, covering risk management; observed and projected changes in extreme weather and climate events; exposure and vulnerability to as well as losses resulting from such events; adaptation options from the local to the international scale; the role of sustainable development in modulating risks; and insights from specific case studies. (LN)

  20. Coastal landslide material loss rates associated with severe climatic events

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hapke, C.J.; Green, K.R.

    2006-01-01

    Deep-seated landslides along the California coast deliver large amounts of material to the nearshore littoral environment. Landslide movement, a combined result of slope base undercutting by waves and ground saturation, is highly episodic. Movement occurs primarily during periods of high rainfall and large waves, such as those associated with El Nin??o events. This analysis applies remote-sensing techniques to quantify the volumetric net loss rates at three specific landslide sites along the Big Sur coast over three approximately decadal time periods, two of which contained the largest El Nin??o events of the twentieth century. High-resolution historical terrain models were compared in order to provide surface-elevation change data for each landslide complex. To determine the material influx to the littoral system, the landslide complexes were divided into upper and lower slopes, and the surface-elevation change was converted to a volume loss. Some material lost from the upper slope was deposited at the slope base, not into the littoral system. We describe a method to calculate the net loss that omits the deposition volumes from the upper slope. Loss rates were found to be substantially higher during the periods in which El Nin??o events occurred. This is especially true during the period of the 1997-1998 El Nin??o, when 75% of the total material volume was lost, and loss rates were much as sixteen times higher than during non-El Nin??o periods. ?? 2006 Geological Society of America.

  1. Using a Family Science Day Event to Engage Youth in Climate Change Issues

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brevik, C.; Brevik, E. C.

    2015-12-01

    Each fall, Dickinson State University organizes four Family Science Day events for elementary-aged children to increase their engagement in the sciences. Offered on Saturday afternoons, each event focuses on a different science-related theme. Families can attend these events free of charge, and the kids participate in a large variety of hands-on activities which center around the event's theme. This year, the November event focused on climate change and the roles soil plays in the climate system. The timing of this topic was carefully chosen. 2015 has been declared the International Year of Soil by the United Nations, and the Soil Science Society of America theme for the month of November was Soils and Climate. This public outreach event was an amazing opportunity to help the youth in our community learn about climate change and soil in a fun, interactive environment. The activities also helped the children learn how science is a process of discovery that allows them to better understand the world they live in. In addition to the hands-on activities, a planetarium show focusing on climate change was also offered during the event. The fully immersive, 360-degree show allowed the kids and their parents to personally observe phenomena that are otherwise difficult to visualize. All of the activities at the Family Science Day event were staffed by university students, and this proved to be a very valuable experience for them as well. Some of the students who helped are majoring in a science field, and for them, the experience taught public communication. They learned to break complicated concepts down into simpler terms that young kids can understand. Education majors who participated practiced communicating science concepts to children, and students in other majors who helped with this event gained experiences that reinforced various concepts they had learned in their general education science courses.

  2. Paleoecological evidence for abrupt cold reversals during peak Holocene warmth on Baffin Island, Arctic Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Axford, Yarrow; Briner, Jason P.; Miller, Gifford H.; Francis, Donna R.

    2009-03-01

    A continuous record of insect (Chironomidae) remains preserved in lake sediments is used to infer temperature changes at a small lake in Arctic Canada through the Holocene. Early Holocene summers at the study site were characterized by more thermophilous assemblages and warmer inferred temperatures than today, presumably in response to the positive anomaly in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. Peak early Holocene warmth was interrupted by two cold reversals between 9.5 and 8 cal ka BP, during which multiple cold-stenothermous chironomid taxa appeared in the lake. The earlier reversal appears to correlate with widespread climate anomalies around 9.2 cal ka BP; the age of the younger reversal is equivocal but it may correlate with the 8.2 cal ka BP cold event documented elsewhere. Widespread, abrupt climate shifts in the early Holocene illustrate the susceptibility of the climate system to perturbations, even during periods of enhanced warmth in the Northern Hemisphere.

  3. Interpreting the Climatic Effects on Xylem Functional Traits in Two Mediterranean Oak Species: The Role of Extreme Climatic Events.

    PubMed

    Rita, Angelo; Borghetti, Marco; Todaro, Luigi; Saracino, Antonio

    2016-01-01

    In the Mediterranean region, the widely predicted rise in temperature, change in the precipitation pattern, and increase in the frequency of extreme climatic events are expected to alter the shape of ecological communities and to affect plant physiological processes that regulate ecosystem functioning. Although change in the mean values are important, there is increasing evidence that plant distribution, survival, and productivity respond to extremes rather than to the average climatic condition. The present study aims to assess the effects of both mean and extreme climatic conditions on radial growth and functional anatomical traits using long-term tree-ring time series of two co-existing Quercus spp. from a drought-prone site in Southern Italy. In particular, this is the first attempt to apply the Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale, and Shape (GAMLSS) technique and Bayesian modeling procedures to xylem traits data set, with the aim of (i) detecting non-linear long-term responses to climate and (ii) exploring relationships between climate extreme and xylem traits variability in terms of probability of occurrence. This study demonstrates the usefulness of long-term xylem trait chronologies as records of environmental conditions at annual resolution. Statistical analyses revealed that most of the variability in tree-ring width and specific hydraulic conductivity might be explained by cambial age. Additionally, results highlighted appreciable relationships between xylem traits and climate variability more than tree-ring width, supporting also the evidence that the plant hydraulic traits are closely linked to local climate extremes rather than average climatic conditions. We reported that the probability of extreme departure in specific hydraulic conductivity (Ks) rises at extreme values of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Therefore, changing frequency or intensity of extreme events might overcome the adaptive limits of vascular transport, resulting

  4. Interpreting the Climatic Effects on Xylem Functional Traits in Two Mediterranean Oak Species: The Role of Extreme Climatic Events

    PubMed Central

    Rita, Angelo; Borghetti, Marco; Todaro, Luigi; Saracino, Antonio

    2016-01-01

    In the Mediterranean region, the widely predicted rise in temperature, change in the precipitation pattern, and increase in the frequency of extreme climatic events are expected to alter the shape of ecological communities and to affect plant physiological processes that regulate ecosystem functioning. Although change in the mean values are important, there is increasing evidence that plant distribution, survival, and productivity respond to extremes rather than to the average climatic condition. The present study aims to assess the effects of both mean and extreme climatic conditions on radial growth and functional anatomical traits using long-term tree-ring time series of two co-existing Quercus spp. from a drought-prone site in Southern Italy. In particular, this is the first attempt to apply the Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale, and Shape (GAMLSS) technique and Bayesian modeling procedures to xylem traits data set, with the aim of (i) detecting non-linear long-term responses to climate and (ii) exploring relationships between climate extreme and xylem traits variability in terms of probability of occurrence. This study demonstrates the usefulness of long-term xylem trait chronologies as records of environmental conditions at annual resolution. Statistical analyses revealed that most of the variability in tree-ring width and specific hydraulic conductivity might be explained by cambial age. Additionally, results highlighted appreciable relationships between xylem traits and climate variability more than tree-ring width, supporting also the evidence that the plant hydraulic traits are closely linked to local climate extremes rather than average climatic conditions. We reported that the probability of extreme departure in specific hydraulic conductivity (Ks) rises at extreme values of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Therefore, changing frequency or intensity of extreme events might overcome the adaptive limits of vascular transport, resulting

  5. RESTORING COASTAL ECOSYSTEMS: ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Consensus exists that U.S. coastal ecosystems are severely degraded due to a variety of human-factors requiring large financial expenditures to restore and manage. Yet, even as controversy surrounds human factors in ecosystem degradation in the Gulf of Mexico, Chesapeake Bay, an...

  6. Abrupt Climate Change Research Act of 2009

    THOMAS, 111th Congress

    Sen. Collins, Susan M. [R-ME

    2009-09-14

    09/14/2009 Read twice and referred to the Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation. (text of measure as introduced: CR S9330) (All Actions) Tracker: This bill has the status IntroducedHere are the steps for Status of Legislation:

  7. Discussion of “Deglacial paleoclimate in the southwestern United States: an abrupt 18.6 cold event and evidence for a North Atlantic forcing of Termination I” by M.S. Lachniet, Y. Asmerom and V. Polyak

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Winograd, Isaac J.

    2012-01-01

    Utilizing a stable isotopic time series obtained from a speleothem (PC-1), which grew between 20.1 and 15.6 ka, Lachniet, Asmeron and Polyak (2011; hereafter LAP) present evidence for a significant cold event in the southern Great Basin at 18.6 ka, a finding that we accept. Supplementing this short record with a literature review, they go on to claim, as their central thesis, that the paleoclimate of the southwestern US was driven by “the transmission of atmospheric anomalies to the southwest…that coincided with deglacial climate changes in Greenland and the North Atlantic region”, not by a “dominant Pacific Ocean SST control” as suggested by SST time series off California and by the Devils Hole δ18O time series from the southern Great Basin. We do not find their central thesis supportable.

  8. Spatial-temporal event detection in climate parameter imagery.

    SciTech Connect

    McKenna, Sean Andrew; Gutierrez, Karen A.

    2011-10-01

    Previously developed techniques that comprise statistical parametric mapping, with applications focused on human brain imaging, are examined and tested here for new applications in anomaly detection within remotely-sensed imagery. Two approaches to analysis are developed: online, regression-based anomaly detection and conditional differences. These approaches are applied to two example spatial-temporal data sets: data simulated with a Gaussian field deformation approach and weekly NDVI images derived from global satellite coverage. Results indicate that anomalies can be identified in spatial temporal data with the regression-based approach. Additionally, la Nina and el Nino climatic conditions are used as different stimuli applied to the earth and this comparison shows that el Nino conditions lead to significant decreases in NDVI in both the Amazon Basin and in Southern India.

  9. Late Quaternary erosion events in lowland and mid-altitude Tasmania in relation to climate change and first human arrival

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McIntosh, P. D.; Price, D. M.; Eberhard, R.; Slee, A. J.

    2009-05-01

    The establishment of a chronology of landscape-forming events in lowland and mid-altitude Tasmania, essential for assessing the relative importance of climatic and human influences on erosion, and for assessing present erosion risk, has been limited by the small number of ages obtained and limitations of dating methods. In this paper we critically assess previous Tasmanian studies, list published radiocarbon ages considered to be dependable, present new radiocarbon and thermoluminescence (TL) ages for 25 sites around Tasmania, and consider the evidence for the hypotheses that erosion processes at low and mid altitudes have been: (1) purely climatically controlled; and (2) influenced both by climatic and anthropogenic (increased fire frequency) effects. A total of 94 dependable finite ages (calibrated for radiocarbon and 'as measured' for TL and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) determinations) are listed for deposits comprising dunes, colluvium, alluvium and loess-like aeolian deposits. Two fall in the >100 ka period, 15 fall in the period 65-35 ka, and 77 fall in the period 35-0.3 ka. There was a sustained increase in erosion recorded in the period 35-15 ka, as reflected by a greater number of dated aeolian deposits during this period. We considered three possible biases that may have affected the age distribution obtained: the limitations of radiocarbon dating, sampling bias, and preservation bias. Sampling bias may have favoured more recent dune strata, but radiocarbon dating and preservation biases are unlikely to have significantly distorted the age distribution obtained. Long but intermittent aeolian deposition is recorded at two sites (Southwood B; c. 59-28 ka and Dunlin Dune; c. 29-14 ka) but there is no evidence of regional loess deposits such as found in New Zealand. The timing of increased erosion in Tasmania between 35 and 30 ka approximately coincides with the intermittent ten-fold increase of dust accumulation between 33 and 30 ka in the

  10. Remote Detection and Modeling of Abrupt and Gradual Tree Mortality in the Southwestern USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muss, J. D.; Xu, C.; McDowell, N. G.

    2014-12-01

    Current climate models predict a warming and drying trend that has a high probability of increasing the frequency and spatial extent of tree mortality events. Field surveys can be used to identify, date, and attribute a cause of mortality to specific trees, but monetary and time constraints prevent broad-scale surveys, which are necessary to establish regional or global trends in tree mortality. This is significant because widespread forest mortality will likely lead to radical changes in evapotranspiration and surface albedo, which could compound climate change. While understanding the causes and mechanisms of tree mortality events is crucial, it is equally important to be able to detect and monitor mortality and subsequent changes to the ecosystem at broad spatial- and temporal-scales. Over the past five years our ability to remotely detect abrupt forest mortality events has improved greatly, but gradual events—such as those caused by drought or certain types of insects—are still difficult to identify. Moreover, it is virtually impossible to quantify the amount of mortality that has occurred within a mixed pixel. We have developed a system that fuses climate and satellite-derived spectral data to identify both the date and the agent of forest mortality events. This system has been used with Landsat time series data to detect both abrupt and general trends in tree loss that have occurred during the past quarter-century in northern New Mexico. It has also been used with MODIS data to identify pixels with a high likelihood of drought-caused tree mortality in the Southwestern US. These candidate pixels were then fed to ED-FRT, a coupled forest dynamics-radiative transfer model, to generate estimates of drought-induced. We demonstrate a multi-scale approach that can produce results that will be instrumental in advancing our understanding of tree mortality-climate feedbacks, and improve our ability to predict what forests could look like in the future.

  11. Continuous and discrete extreme climatic events affecting the dynamics of a high-arctic reindeer population.

    PubMed

    Chan, Kung-Sik; Mysterud, Atle; Øritsland, Nils Are; Severinsen, Torbjørn; Stenseth, Nils Chr

    2005-10-01

    Climate at northern latitudes are currently changing both with regard to the mean and the temporal variability at any given site, increasing the frequency of extreme events such as cold and warm spells. Here we use a conceptually new modelling approach with two different dynamic terms of the climatic effects on a Svalbard reindeer population (the Brøggerhalvøya population) which underwent an extreme icing event ("locked pastures") with 80% reduction in population size during one winter (1993/94). One term captures the continuous and linear effect depending upon the Arctic Oscillation and another the discrete (rare) "event" process. The introduction of an "event" parameter describing the discrete extreme winter resulted in a more parsimonious model. Such an approach may be useful in strongly age-structured ungulate populations, with young and very old individuals being particularly prone to mortality factors during adverse conditions (resulting in a population structure that differs before and after extreme climatic events). A simulation study demonstrates that our approach is able to properly detect the ecological effects of such extreme climate events. PMID:16010537

  12. Climate Central World Weather Attribution (WWA) project: Real-time extreme weather event attribution analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haustein, Karsten; Otto, Friederike; Uhe, Peter; Allen, Myles; Cullen, Heidi

    2015-04-01

    Extreme weather detection and attribution analysis has emerged as a core theme in climate science over the last decade or so. By using a combination of observational data and climate models it is possible to identify the role of climate change in certain types of extreme weather events such as sea level rise and its contribution to storm surges, extreme heat events and droughts or heavy rainfall and flood events. These analyses are usually carried out after an extreme event has occurred when reanalysis and observational data become available. The Climate Central WWA project will exploit the increasing forecast skill of seasonal forecast prediction systems such as the UK MetOffice GloSea5 (Global seasonal forecasting system) ensemble forecasting method. This way, the current weather can be fed into climate models to simulate large ensembles of possible weather scenarios before an event has fully emerged yet. This effort runs along parallel and intersecting tracks of science and communications that involve research, message development and testing, staged socialization of attribution science with key audiences, and dissemination. The method we employ uses a very large ensemble of simulations of regional climate models to run two different analyses: one to represent the current climate as it was observed, and one to represent the same events in the world that might have been without human-induced climate change. For the weather "as observed" experiment, the atmospheric model uses observed sea surface temperature (SST) data from GloSea5 (currently) and present-day atmospheric gas concentrations to simulate weather events that are possible given the observed climate conditions. The weather in the "world that might have been" experiments is obtained by removing the anthropogenic forcing from the observed SSTs, thereby simulating a counterfactual world without human activity. The anthropogenic forcing is obtained by comparing the CMIP5 historical and natural simulations

  13. Sonographic spectrum of placental abruption.

    PubMed

    Nyberg, D A; Cyr, D R; Mack, L A; Wilson, D A; Shuman, W P

    1987-01-01

    Fifty-seven cases of placental abruption detected by sonography were retrospectively reviewed. The location of hemorrhage was subchorionic in 46 cases (81%), retroplacental in nine cases (16%), and preplacental in two cases (4%). Subchorionic hematomas were more frequently shown in the 33 patients presenting before 20 menstrual weeks (91%) than in the 24 patients presenting after 20 weeks (67%). The echogenicity of hemorrhage depended on the time the sonogram was performed relative to the onset of symptoms: Acute hemorrhage was hyperechoic to isoechoic compared with the placenta, while resolving hematomas became hypoechoic within 1 week and sonolucent within 2 weeks. Acute hemorrhage was occasionally difficult to distinguish from the adjacent placenta. This occurred in five retroplacental hematomas that showed only an abnormally thick and heterogeneous placenta. Nine cases of placental abruption were initially confused with other mass lesions. Placental abruption causes a wide spectrum of sonographic findings that may be overlooked or misdiagnosed. PMID:3538831

  14. Ecology and the ratchet of events: climate variability, niche dimensions, and species distributions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jackson, Stephen T.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Booth, Robert K.; Gray, Stephen T.

    2009-01-01

    Climate change in the coming centuries will be characterized by interannual, decadal, and multidecadal fluctuations superimposed on anthropogenic trends. Predicting ecological and biogeographic responses to these changes constitutes an immense challenge for ecologists. Perspectives from climatic and ecological history indicate that responses will be laden with contingencies, resulting from episodic climatic events interacting with demographic and colonization events. This effect is compounded by the dependency of environmental sensitivity upon life-stage for many species. Climate variables often used in empirical niche models may become decoupled from the proximal variables that directly influence individuals and populations. Greater predictive capacity, and more-fundamental ecological and biogeographic understanding, will come from integration of correlational niche modeling with mechanistic niche modeling, dynamic ecological modeling, targeted experiments, and systematic observations of past and present patterns and dynamics.

  15. Ecology and the ratchet of events: Climate variability, niche dimensions, and species distributions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jackson, S.T.; Betancourt, J.L.; Booth, R.K.; Gray, S.T.

    2009-01-01

    Climate change in the coming centuries will be characterized by interannual, decadal, and multidecadal fluctuations superimposed on anthropogenic trends. Predicting ecological and biogeographic responses to these changes constitutes an immense challenge for ecologists. Perspectives from climatic and ecological history indicate that responses will be laden with contingencies, resulting from episodic climatic events interacting with demographic and colonization events. This effect is compounded by the dependency of environmental sensitivity upon life-stage for many species. Climate variables often used in empirical niche models may become decoupled from the proximal variables that directly influence individuals and populations. Greater predictive capacity, and morefundamental ecological and biogeographic understanding, will come from integration of correlational niche modeling with mechanistic niche modeling, dynamic ecological modeling, targeted experiments, and systematic observations of past and present patterns and dynamics.

  16. A role for icebergs in the 8.2 ka climate event

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wiersma, A. P.; Jongma, J. I.

    2009-04-01

    We investigate the potential role of icebergs in the 8.2 ka climate event, using a coupled climate model equipped with an iceberg component. First, we evaluate the effect of a large iceberg discharge originating from the decaying Laurentide ice sheet on ocean circulation, compared to a release of an identical volume of freshwater alone. Our results show that a large iceberg discharge facilitates sea-ice growth as a result of lower SSTs induced by latent heat of melting. This causes an 8% increased sea-ice cover, 5% stronger reduction in North Atlantic Deep Water production and 1°C lower temperature in Greenland. Second, we use the model to investigate the effect of a hypothetical two-stage lake drainage, which is suggested by several investigators to have triggered the 8.2 ka climate event. To account for the final collapse of the ice-dam holding the Laurentide Lakes we accompany the secondary freshwater pulse in one scenario with a fast 5-year iceberg discharge and in a second scenario with a slow 100-year iceberg discharge. Our experiments show that a two-stage lake drainage accompanied by the collapsing ice-dam could explain the anomalies observed around the 8.2 ka climate event in various climate records. Our results suggest a potential role for icebergs in the 8.2 ka climate event and illustrate the importance of latent heat of melting in the simulation of climate events that involve icebergs. Our two-stage lake drainage experiments provide a framework in the discussion of a two-stage lake drainage and ice sheet collapse.

  17. A role for icebergs in the 8.2 ka climate event

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wiersma, Ane P.; Jongma, Jochem I.

    2010-08-01

    We investigate the potential role of icebergs in the 8.2 ka climate event, using a coupled climate model equipped with an iceberg component. First, we evaluate the effect of a large iceberg discharge originating from the decaying Laurentide ice sheet on ocean circulation, compared to a release of an identical volume of freshwater alone. Our results show that, on top of the freshwater effect, a large iceberg discharge facilitates sea-ice growth as a result of lower sea-surface temperatures induced by latent heat of melting. This causes an 8% increased sea-ice cover, 5% stronger reduction in North Atlantic Deep Water production and 1°C lower temperature in Greenland. Second, we use the model to investigate the effect of a hypothetical two-stage lake drainage, which is suggested by several investigators to have triggered the 8.2 ka climate event. To account for the final collapse of the ice-dam holding the Laurentide Lakes we accompany the secondary freshwater pulse in one scenario with a fast 5-year iceberg discharge and in a second scenario with a slow 100-year iceberg discharge. Our experiments show that a two-stage lake drainage accompanied by the collapsing ice-dam could explain the anomalies observed around the 8.2 ka climate event in various climate records. In addition, they advocate a potential role for icebergs in the 8.2 ka climate event and illustrate the importance of latent heat of melting in the simulation of climate events that involve icebergs. Our two-stage lake drainage experiments provide a framework in the discussion of two-stage lake drainage and ice sheet collapse.

  18. Impacts and environmental catastrophes: A study of the effects of impact events on the climate system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pierazzo, E.

    2005-01-01

    The goal of this work is to investigate the perturbation of the climate system due to large impact events. Impacts are among the most important mechanisms for the evolution, distribution, and destruction of life in the universe. However, the possible climatic effects of an impact were not seriously considered until 1980, when Louis and Walter Alvarez suggested that the profound end-Cretaceous extinction might have been caused by the impact of an asteroid or comet about 10 km in diameter. Since then, the climatic change associated with the end-Cretaceous impact has become one of the most interesting and still unresolved questions in linking the well-known Chicxulub impact event and the end- Cretaceous mass extinction. While the end-Cretaceous impact offers the best-documented case of an impact affecting the Earth's climate and biota, even smaller (and more frequent in time) impacts could introduce significant perturbations of the climate comparable, if not larger, to the largest known volcanic perturbations. We propose to study the mechanical and thermal state of the atmosphere following an impact event. This will be done by using both one-dimensional and three-dimensional climate models. When necessary, modifications of the state-of-the-art general circulation models will b e carried out. We want to use the end-Cretaceous impact event as a case study. This allows us to take advantage of the extensive modeling of this impact event that has already been carried out through a previous Exobiology grant. Furthermore, a large experimental dataset, that can be used to constrain and test our models, is associated with the end-Cretaceous mass extinction (one of the largest of the Phanerozoic) and impact event.

  19. Simulation of the cold climate event 8200 years ago by meltwater outburst from Lake Agassiz

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bauer, E.; Ganopolski, A.; Montoya, M.

    2004-09-01

    The cold climate anomaly about 8200 years ago is investigated with CLIMBER-2, a coupled atmosphere-ocean-biosphere model of intermediate complexity. This climate model simulates a cooling of about 3.6 K over the North Atlantic induced by a meltwater pulse from Lake Agassiz routed through the Hudson strait. The meltwater pulse is assumed to have a volume of 1.6 × 1014 m3 and a period of discharge of 2 years on the basis of glaciological modeling of the decay of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS). We present a possible mechanism which can explain the centennial duration of the 8.2 ka cold event. The mechanism is related to the existence of an additional equilibrium climate state with reduced North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) formation and a southward shift of the NADW formation area. Hints at the additional climate state were obtained from the largely varying duration of the pulse-induced cold episode in response to overlaid random freshwater fluctuations in Monte Carlo simulations. The model equilibrium state was attained by releasing a weak multicentury freshwater flux through the St. Lawrence pathway completed by the meltwater pulse. The existence of such a climate mode appears essential for reproducing climate anomalies in close agreement with paleoclimatic reconstructions of the 8.2 ka event. The results furthermore suggest that the temporal evolution of the cold event was partly a matter of chance.

  20. Indian Ocean climate and an absolute chronology over Dansgaard/Oeschger events 9 to 13.

    PubMed

    Burns, Stephen J; Fleitmann, Dominik; Matter, Albert; Kramers, Jan; Al-Subbary, Abdulkarim A

    2003-09-01

    Oxygen-isotope ratios of a stalagmite from Socotra Island in the Indian Ocean provide a record of changes in monsoon precipitation and climate for the time period from 42 to 55 thousand years before the present. The pattern of precipitation bears a striking resemblance to the oxygen-isotope record from Greenland ice cores, with increased tropical precipitation associated with warm periods in the high northern latitudes. The largest change, at the onset of interstadial 12, occurred very rapidly, in about 25 years. The chronology of the events found in our record requires a reevaluation of previously published time scales for climate events during this period. PMID:12958357

  1. Indian Ocean Climate and an Absolute Chronology over Dansgaard/Oeschger Events 9 to 13

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burns, Stephen J.; Fleitmann, Dominik; Matter, Albert; Kramers, Jan; Al-Subbary, Abdulkarim A.

    2003-09-01

    Oxygen-isotope ratios of a stalagmite from Socotra Island in the Indian Ocean provide a record of changes in monsoon precipitation and climate for the time period from 42 to 55 thousand years before the present. The pattern of precipitation bears a striking resemblance to the oxygen-isotope record from Greenland ice cores, with increased tropical precipitation associated with warm periods in the high northern latitudes. The largest change, at the onset of interstadial 12, occurred very rapidly, in about 25 years. The chronology of the events found in our record requires a reevaluation of previously published time scales for climate events during this period.

  2. A regional analysis of event runoff coefficients with respect to climate and catchment characteristics in Austria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Merz, Ralf; BlöSchl, Günter

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we analyze the controls on the spatiotemporal variability of event runoff coefficients. A total of about 64,000 events in 459 Austrian catchments ranging from 5 to 10000 km2 are analyzed. Event runoff coefficients vary in space, depending on the long-term controls such as climate and catchment formation. Event runoff coefficients also vary in time, depending on event characteristics such as antecedent soil moisture and event rainfall depth. Both types of controls are analyzed separately in the paper. The spatial variability is analyzed in terms of a correlation analysis of the statistical moments of the runoff coefficients and catchment attributes. Mean runoff coefficients are most strongly correlated to indicators representing climate such as mean annual precipitation and the long-term ratio of actual evaporation to precipitation through affecting long-term soil moisture. Land use, soil types, and geology do not seem to exert a major control on runoff coefficients of the catchments under study. The temporal variability is analyzed by comparing the deviation of the event runoff coefficients from their mean depending on event characteristics. The analysis indicates that antecedent soil moisture conditions control runoff coefficients to a higher degree than does event rainfall. The analysis also indicates that soil moisture derived from soil moisture accounting schemes has more predictive power for the temporal variability of runoff coefficients than antecedent rainfall.

  3. Fine-scale processes regulate the response of extreme events to global climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Pal, Jeremy S.; Trapp, Robert J.; Giorgi, Filippo

    2005-11-01

    We find that extreme temperature and precipitation events are likely to respond substantially to anthropogenically enhanced greenhouse forcing and that fine-scale climate system modifiers are likely to play a critical role in the net response. At present, such events impact a wide variety of natural and human systems, and future changes in their frequency and/or magnitude could have dramatic ecological, economic, and sociological consequences. Our results indicate that fine-scale snow albedo effects influence the response of both hot and cold events and that peak increases in extreme hot events are amplified by surface moisture feedbacks. Likewise, we find that extreme precipitation is enhanced on the lee side of rain shadows and over coastal areas dominated by convective precipitation. We project substantial, spatially heterogeneous increases in both hot and wet events over the contiguous United States by the end of the next century, suggesting that consideration of fine-scale processes is critical for accurate assessment of local- and regional-scale vulnerability to climate change. extreme climate | RegCM3 | regional climate model | United States | CO2

  4. [Extreme Climatic Events in the Altai Republic According to Dendrochronological Data].

    PubMed

    Barinov, V V; Myglan, V S; Nazarov, A N; Vaganov, E A; Agatova, A R; Nepop, R K

    2016-01-01

    The results of dating of extreme climatic events by damage to the anatomical structure and missing tree rings of the Siberian larch in the upper forest boundary of the Altai Republic are given. An analysis of the spatial distribution of the revealed dates over seven plots (Kokcy, Chind, Ak-ha, Jelo, Tute, Tara, and Sukor) allowed us to distinguish the extreme events on interregional (1700, 1783, 1788, 1812, 1814, 1884), regional (1724, 1775, 1784, 1835, 1840, 1847, 1850, 1852, 1854, 1869, 1871, 1910, 1917, 1927, 1938, 1958, 1961), and local (1702, 1736, 1751, 1785, 1842, 1843,1874, 1885, 1886, 1919, 2007, and 2009) scales. It was shown that the events of an interregional scale correspond with the dates of major volcanic eruptions (Grimsvotn, Lakagigar, Etna, Awu, Tambora, Soufriere St. Vinsent, Mayon, and Krakatau volcanos) and extreme climatic events, crop failures, lean years, etc., registered in historical sources. PMID:27396180

  5. On forecasting abnormal climatic events in the tropical Atlantic Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Servain, Jacques; Arnault, Sabine

    1995-09-01

    Modelling and observational evidence indicate that interannual variabilities of dynamic height and sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern part of the tropical Atlantic Ocean (Gulf of Guinea) are largely induced by preceding fluctuations in wind stress, mainly in the western equatorial basin. A wind-driven linear ocean model is used here to test the possibility of forecasting the abnormal dynamic heights. A control run of the model, forced by 1964-1993 wind stress monthly means, is first conducted. Yearly test runs (1964-1994) are subsequently performed from January to August by forcing the model with observed winds from January to May, and then by forcing with the May wind assumed to persist from June to August. During the last three decades the largest deviations of dynamic height simulated by the control run in the Gulf of Guinea in boreal summer would have been correctly forecast from wind data related only to conditions in May of each year. However, for weak climatic anomalies, the model may forecast overestimated values. For the most part (about 20 times during the last 30 years), the sign of the observed SST anomaly in the centre of the Gulf of Guinea during the boreal summer is identical to the sign of simulated anomalies of dynamic height deduced from both control and test runs. Along the eastern equatorial waveguide, the sea level forecasting skill slowly decreases from the first 2 weeks of June until the second 2 weeks of August, but remains high on both sides of the equator throughout boreal summer, as is expected from the adjustment in a linear ocean model. It is established that throughout the year in the Gulf of Guinea the accuracy of the 1-month forecast dynamic height anomaly provided by the simple linear method is greater than that of the 1-month forecast assuming persistence. Acknowledgements. The authors are grateful to Prof. A. K. Sen of the Institute of Radio Physics and Electronics, University of Calcutta for valuable discussions. One of

  6. Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Hydrological Events in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ashraf Vaghefi, Saeid; Abbaspour, Karim C.

    2016-04-01

    Estimating magnitude and occurrence frequency of extreme hydrological events is required for taking preventive remedial actions against the impact of climate change on the management of water resources. Examples include: characterization of extreme rainfall events to predict urban runoff, determination of river flows, and the likely severity of drought events during the design life of a water project. In recent years California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history, causing water stress, economic loss, and an increase in wildfires. In this paper we describe development of a Climate Change Toolkit (CCT) and demonstrate its use in the analysis of dry and wet periods in California for the years 2020-2050 and compare the results with the historic period 1975-2005. CCT provides four modules to: i) manage big databases such as those of Global Climate Models (GCMs), ii) make bias correction using observed local climate data , iii) interpolate gridded climate data to finer resolution, and iv) calculate continuous dry- and wet-day periods based on rainfall, temperature, and soil moisture for analysis of drought and flooding risks. We used bias-corrected meteorological data of five GCMs for extreme CO2 emission scenario rcp8.5 for California to analyze the trend of extreme hydrological events. The findings indicate that frequency of dry period will increase in center and southern parts of California. The assessment of the number of wet days and the frequency of wet periods suggests an increased risk of flooding in north and north-western part of California, especially in the coastal strip. Keywords: Climate Change Toolkit (CCT), Extreme Hydrological Events, California

  7. Varied response of western Pacific hydrology to climate forcings over the last glacial period.

    PubMed

    Carolin, Stacy A; Cobb, Kim M; Adkins, Jess F; Clark, Brian; Conroy, Jessica L; Lejau, Syria; Malang, Jenny; Tuen, Andrew A

    2013-06-28

    Atmospheric deep convection in the west Pacific plays a key role in the global heat and moisture budgets, yet its response to orbital and abrupt climate change events is poorly resolved. Here, we present four absolutely dated, overlapping stalagmite oxygen isotopic records from northern Borneo that span most of the last glacial cycle. The records suggest that northern Borneo's hydroclimate shifted in phase with precessional forcing but was only weakly affected by glacial-interglacial changes in global climate boundary conditions. Regional convection likely decreased during Heinrich events, but other Northern Hemisphere abrupt climate change events are notably absent. The new records suggest that the deep tropical Pacific hydroclimate variability may have played an important role in shaping the global response to the largest abrupt climate change events. PMID:23744779

  8. Using Dynamically Downscaled Climate Model Outputs to Inform Projections of Extreme Precipitation Events

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wobus, Cameron; Reynolds, Lara; Jones, Russell; Horton, Radley; Smith, Joel; Fries, J. Stephen; Tryby, Michael; Spero, Tanya; Nolte, Chris

    2015-01-01

    Many of the storms that generate damaging floods are caused by locally intense, sub-daily precipitation, yet the spatial and temporal resolution of the most widely available climate model outputs are both too coarse to simulate these events. Thus there is often a disconnect between the nature of the events that cause damaging floods and the models used to project how climate change might influence their magnitude. This could be a particular problem when developing scenarios to inform future storm water management options under future climate scenarios. In this study we sought to close this gap, using sub-daily outputs from the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) from each of the nine climate regions in the United States. Specifically, we asked 1) whether WRF outputs projected consistent patterns of change for sub-daily and daily precipitation extremes; and 2) whether this dynamically downscaled model projected different magnitudes of change for 3-hourly vs 24-hourly extreme events. We extracted annual maximum values for 3-hour through 24-hour precipitation totals from an 11-year time series of hindcast (1995-2005) and mid-century (2045-2055) climate, and calculated the direction and magnitude of change for 3-hour and 24-hour extreme events over this timeframe. The model results project that the magnitude of both 3-hour and 24-hour events will increase over most regions of the United States, but there was no clear or consistent difference in the relative magnitudes of change for sub-daily vs daily events.

  9. Combining regional climate and national human development scenarios to estimate future vulnerability to extreme climate and weather events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patt, A.; Nussbaumer, P.

    2009-04-01

    Extreme climate and weather events such as droughts, floods, and tropical cyclones account for over 60% of the loss of life, and over 90% of total impacts, from natural disasters. Both observed trends and global climate models (GCMs) suggest that the frequency and intensity of extreme events is increasing, and will continue to increase as a result of climate change. Among planners and policy-makers at both national and international levels there is thus concern that this rise in extreme events will lead to greater losses in the future. Since low levels of development are associated with greater numbers of people killed and needing emergency assistance from natural disasters, the concern is most pronounced for least developed countries. If, however, these countries make substantial improvements in their levels of human development, as leading forecasters suggest may be the case over the coming decades, then their vulnerability to extreme events may fall. In this study, we examine the potential combined effects of increased extreme event frequency and improved levels of human development, to generate scenarios of risk levels into the second half of the century. It is the African continent for which these results may be the most relevant, since it is widely viewed as most vulnerable to increased risks from climate change; we focus on the particular country of Mozambique, which has experienced high losses from droughts, floods, and tropical cyclones in recent decades, and stands out as being among the most vulnerable in Africa. To assess the change in risk levels from the present until 2060, we pull together three pieces of analysis. The first is a statistical analysis of the losses from 1990-2007 from climate-related disasters, using national level data from the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) and the United Nations. From this analysis, we establish statistical relationships between several drivers of vulnerability—including country size

  10. Abrupt increases in Amazonian tree mortality due to drought-fire interactions.

    PubMed

    Brando, Paulo Monteiro; Balch, Jennifer K; Nepstad, Daniel C; Morton, Douglas C; Putz, Francis E; Coe, Michael T; Silvério, Divino; Macedo, Marcia N; Davidson, Eric A; Nóbrega, Caroline C; Alencar, Ane; Soares-Filho, Britaldo S

    2014-04-29

    Interactions between climate and land-use change may drive widespread degradation of Amazonian forests. High-intensity fires associated with extreme weather events could accelerate this degradation by abruptly increasing tree mortality, but this process remains poorly understood. Here we present, to our knowledge, the first field-based evidence of a tipping point in Amazon forests due to altered fire regimes. Based on results of a large-scale, long-term experiment with annual and triennial burn regimes (B1yr and B3yr, respectively) in the Amazon, we found abrupt increases in fire-induced tree mortality (226 and 462%) during a severe drought event, when fuel loads and air temperatures were substantially higher and relative humidity was lower than long-term averages. This threshold mortality response had a cascading effect, causing sharp declines in canopy cover (23 and 31%) and aboveground live biomass (12 and 30%) and favoring widespread invasion by flammable grasses across the forest edge area (80 and 63%), where fires were most intense (e.g., 220 and 820 kW ⋅ m(-1)). During the droughts of 2007 and 2010, regional forest fires burned 12 and 5% of southeastern Amazon forests, respectively, compared with <1% in nondrought years. These results show that a few extreme drought events, coupled with forest fragmentation and anthropogenic ignition sources, are already causing widespread fire-induced tree mortality and forest degradation across southeastern Amazon forests. Future projections of vegetation responses to climate change across drier portions of the Amazon require more than simulation of global climate forcing alone and must also include interactions of extreme weather events, fire, and land-use change. PMID:24733937

  11. Abrupt increases in Amazonian tree mortality due to drought–fire interactions

    PubMed Central

    Brando, Paulo Monteiro; Balch, Jennifer K.; Nepstad, Daniel C.; Morton, Douglas C.; Putz, Francis E.; Coe, Michael T.; Silvério, Divino; Macedo, Marcia N.; Davidson, Eric A.; Nóbrega, Caroline C.; Alencar, Ane; Soares-Filho, Britaldo S.

    2014-01-01

    Interactions between climate and land-use change may drive widespread degradation of Amazonian forests. High-intensity fires associated with extreme weather events could accelerate this degradation by abruptly increasing tree mortality, but this process remains poorly understood. Here we present, to our knowledge, the first field-based evidence of a tipping point in Amazon forests due to altered fire regimes. Based on results of a large-scale, long-term experiment with annual and triennial burn regimes (B1yr and B3yr, respectively) in the Amazon, we found abrupt increases in fire-induced tree mortality (226 and 462%) during a severe drought event, when fuel loads and air temperatures were substantially higher and relative humidity was lower than long-term averages. This threshold mortality response had a cascading effect, causing sharp declines in canopy cover (23 and 31%) and aboveground live biomass (12 and 30%) and favoring widespread invasion by flammable grasses across the forest edge area (80 and 63%), where fires were most intense (e.g., 220 and 820 kW⋅m−1). During the droughts of 2007 and 2010, regional forest fires burned 12 and 5% of southeastern Amazon forests, respectively, compared with <1% in nondrought years. These results show that a few extreme drought events, coupled with forest fragmentation and anthropogenic ignition sources, are already causing widespread fire-induced tree mortality and forest degradation across southeastern Amazon forests. Future projections of vegetation responses to climate change across drier portions of the Amazon require more than simulation of global climate forcing alone and must also include interactions of extreme weather events, fire, and land-use change. PMID:24733937

  12. Decision-support tools for Extreme Weather and Climate Events in the Northeast United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, S.; Lowery, M.; Whelchel, A.

    2013-12-01

    Decision-support tools were assessed for the 2013 National Climate Assessment technical input document, "Climate Change in the Northeast, A Sourcebook". The assessment included tools designed to generate and deliver actionable information to assist states and highly populated urban and other communities in assessment of climate change vulnerability and risk, quantification of effects, and identification of adaptive strategies in the context of adaptation planning across inter-annual, seasonal and multi-decadal time scales. State-level adaptation planning in the Northeast has generally relied on qualitative vulnerability assessments by expert panels and stakeholders, although some states have undertaken initiatives to develop statewide databases to support vulnerability assessments by urban and local governments, and state agencies. The devastation caused by Superstorm Sandy in October 2012 has raised awareness of the potential for extreme weather events to unprecedented levels and created urgency for action, especially in coastal urban and suburban communities that experienced pronounced impacts - especially in New Jersey, New York and Connecticut. Planning approaches vary, but any adaptation and resiliency planning process must include the following: - Knowledge of the probable change in a climate variable (e.g., precipitation, temperature, sea-level rise) over time or that the climate variable will attain a certain threshold deemed to be significant; - Knowledge of intensity and frequency of climate hazards (past, current or future events or conditions with potential to cause harm) and their relationship with climate variables; - Assessment of climate vulnerabilities (sensitive resources, infrastructure or populations exposed to climate-related hazards); - Assessment of relative risks to vulnerable resources; - Identification and prioritization of adaptive strategies to address risks. Many organizations are developing decision-support tools to assist in the urban

  13. The Extreme Climate Index: a novel and multi-hazard index for extreme weather events.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petitta, Marcello; Calmanti, Sandro; Cucchi, Marco

    2016-04-01

    In this work we introduce the Extreme Climate Index (ECI): an objective, multi-hazard index capable of tracking changes in the frequency or magnitude of extreme weather events, thus indicating that a shift to a new climate regime is underway in a particular area. The main hazards covered by ECI are extreme dry, wet and heat events, with the possibility of adding region-specific risk events such as tropical cyclones for the most vulnerable areas. It is on data coming from consistent, sufficiently long, high quality historical records and is standardized across broad geographical regions, so that extreme events occurring under different climatic regimes in Africa can be comparable. The first step to construct such an index is to define single hazard indicators. In this first study we focused on extreme dry/wet and heat events, using for their description respectively the well-known SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) and an index developed by us, called SHI (Standardized Heat-waves Index). The second step consists in the development of a computational strategy to combine these, and possibly other indices, so that the ECI can describe, by means of a single indicator, different types of climatic extremes. According to the methodology proposed in this paper, the ECI is defined by two statistical components: the ECI intensity, which indicates whether an event is extreme or not; the angular component, which represent the contribution of each hazard to the overall intensity of the index. The ECI can thus be used to identify "extremes" after defining a suitable threshold above which the events can be held as extremes. In this paper, after describing the methodology we used for the construction of the ECI, we present results obtained on different African regions, using NCEP Reanalysis dataset for air temperature at sigma 0.995 level and CHIRP dataset for precipitations.

  14. FORECASTING AND EVALUATING VULNERABILITY OF WATERSHEDS TO CLIMATE CHANGE, EXTREME EVENTS, AND ALGAL BLOOMS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Climate change is projected to increase the intensity of extreme weather events along with temperature. Increases in water temperature with greater frequency and intensity of floods and droughts are a perfect storm for exacerbating problems in water quality. Recent developm...

  15. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE-INDUCED CHANGES IN EXTREME EVENTS ON OZONE AND PARTICULATE MATTER AIR QUALITY

    EPA Science Inventory

    Historical data records of air pollution meteorology from multiple datasets will be compiled and analyzed to identify possible trends in extreme events. Changes in climate and air quality between 2010 and 2050 will be simulated with a suite of models. The consequential effe...

  16. Can dynamically downscaled climate model outputs improve pojections of extreme precipitation events?

    EPA Science Inventory

    Many of the storms that generate damaging floods are caused by locally intense, sub-daily precipitation, yet the spatial and temporal resolution of the most widely available climate model outputs are both too coarse to simulate these events. Thus there is often a disconnect betwe...

  17. Surface and deep ocean interactions during the cold climate event 8200 years ago.

    PubMed

    Ellison, Christopher R W; Chapman, Mark R; Hall, Ian R

    2006-06-30

    Evidence from a North Atlantic deep-sea sediment core reveals that the largest climatic perturbation in our present interglacial, the 8200-year event, is marked by two distinct cooling events in the subpolar North Atlantic at 8490 and 8290 years ago. An associated reduction in deep flow speed provides evidence of a significant change to a major downwelling limb of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. The existence of a distinct surface freshening signal during these events strongly suggests that the sequenced surface and deep ocean changes were forced by pulsed meltwater outbursts from a multistep final drainage of the proglacial lakes associated with the decaying Laurentide Ice Sheet margin. PMID:16809535

  18. Climate Resiliency Planning: Making Extreme Event Science Useful for Managers and Planners in Northern Nevada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCarthy, M.; Kenneston, A.; Wall, T. U.; Brown, T. J.; Redmond, K. T.

    2014-12-01

    Effective climate resiliency planning at the regional level requires extensive interactive dialogue among climate scientists, emergency managers, public health officials, urban planners, social scientists, and policy makers. Engaging federal, tribal, state, local governments and private sector business and infrastructure owners/operators in defining, assessing and characterizing the impacts of extreme events allows communities to understand how different events "break the system" forcing local communities to seek support and resources from state/federal governments and/or the private sector and what actions can be taken proactively to mitigate consequences and accelerate recovery. The Washoe County Regional Resiliency Study was prepared in response to potential climate variability related impacts specific to the Northern Nevada Region. The last several decades have seen dramatic growth in the region, coupled with increased resource demands that have forced local governments to consider how those impacts will affect the region and may, in turn, impact the region's ability to provide essential services. The Western Regional Climate Center of the Desert Research Institute provided a synthesis of climate studies with predictions regarding plausible changes in the local climate of Northern California and Nevada for the next 50 years. In general, these predictions indicate that the region's climate is undergoing a gradual shift, which will primarily affect the frequency, amount, and form of precipitation in the Sierra Nevada and Great Basin. Changes in water availability and other extreme events may have serious and long lasting effects in the Northern Nevada Region, and create a variety of social, environmental and economic concerns. A range of extreme events were considered including Adverse Air Quality, Droughts, Floods, Heat Waves, High Wind, Structure Fires, Wildland Fires, and Major Winter Storms. Due to the complexity of our climate systems, and the difficulty in

  19. Identification of storm surge events over the German Bight from atmospheric reanalysis and climate model data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Befort, D. J.; Fischer, M.; Leckebusch, G. C.; Ulbrich, U.; Ganske, A.; Rosenhagen, G.; Heinrich, H.

    2015-06-01

    A new procedure for the identification of storm surge situations for the German Bight is developed and applied to reanalysis and global climate model data. This method is based on the empirical approach for estimating storm surge heights using information about wind speed and wind direction. Here, we hypothesize that storm surge events are caused by high wind speeds from north-westerly direction in combination with a large-scale wind storm event affecting the North Sea region. The method is calibrated for ERA-40 data, using the data from the storm surge atlas for Cuxhaven. It is shown that using information of both wind speed and direction as well as large-scale wind storm events improves the identification of storm surge events. To estimate possible future changes of potential storm surge events, we apply the new identification approach to an ensemble of three transient climate change simulations performed with the ECHAM5/MPIOM model under A1B greenhouse gas scenario forcing. We find an increase in the total number of potential storm surge events of about 12 % [(2001-2100)-(1901-2000)], mainly based on changes of moderate events. Yearly numbers of storm surge relevant events show high interannual and decadal variability and only one of three simulations shows a statistical significant increase in the yearly number of potential storm surge events between 1900 and 2100. However, no changes in the maximum intensity and duration of all potential events is determined. Extreme value statistic analysis confirms no frequency change of the most severe events.

  20. Tropical climate and vegetation changes during Heinrich Event 1: comparing climate model output to pollen-based vegetation reconstructions with emphasis on the region around the tropical Atlantic Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Handiani, D.; Paul, A.; Dupont, L.

    2011-06-01

    Abrupt climate changes associated with Heinrich Event 1 (HE1) about 18 to 15 thousand years before present (ka BP) strongly affected climate and vegetation patterns not only in the Northern Hemisphere, but also in tropical regions in the South Atlantic Ocean. We used the University of Victoria (UVic) Earth System-Climate Model (ESCM) with dynamical vegetation and land surface components to simulate four scenarios of climate-vegetation interaction: the pre-industrial era (PI), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and a Heinrich-like event with two different climate backgrounds (interglacial and glacial). The HE1-like simulation with a glacial climate background produced sea surface temperature patterns and enhanced interhemispheric thermal gradients in accordance with the "bipolar seesaw" hypothesis. It allowed us to investigate the vegetation changes that result from a transition to a drier climate as predicted for northern tropical Africa due to a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). We found that a cooling of the Northern Hemisphere caused a southward shift of those plant-functional types (PFTs) in Northern Tropical Africa that are indicative of an increased desertification, and a retreat of broadleaf forests in Western Africa and Northern South America. We used the PFTs generated by the model to calculate mega-biomes to allow for a direct comparison between paleodata and palynological vegetation reconstructions. Our calculated mega-biomes for the pre-industrial period and the LGM corresponded well to the modern and LGM sites of the BIOME6000 (v.4.2) reconstruction, except that our present-day simulation predicted the dominance of grassland in Southern Europe and our LGM simulation simulated more forest cover in tropical and sub-tropical South America. The mega-biomes from the HE1 simulation with glacial background climate were in agreement with paleovegetation data from land and ocean proxies in West, Central, and Northern Tropical Africa as

  1. Climate change and health in Israel: adaptation policies for extreme weather events

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Climatic changes have increased the world-wide frequency of extreme weather events such as heat waves, cold spells, floods, storms and droughts. These extreme events potentially affect the health status of millions of people, increasing disease and death. Since mitigation of climate change is a long and complex process, emphasis has recently been placed on the measures required for adaptation. Although the principles underlying these measures are universal, preparedness plans and policies need to be tailored to local conditions. In this paper, we conducted a review of the literature on the possible health consequences of extreme weather events in Israel, where the conditions are characteristic of the Mediterranean region. Strong evidence indicates that the frequency and duration of several types of extreme weather events are increasing in the Mediterranean Basin, including Israel. We examined the public health policy implications for adaptation to climate change in the region, and proposed public health adaptation policy options. Preparedness for the public health impact of increased extreme weather events is still relatively limited and clear public health policies are urgently needed. These include improved early warning and monitoring systems, preparedness of the health system, educational programs and the living environment. Regional collaboration should be a priority. PMID:23805950

  2. Science-based risk assessments for rare events in a changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sobel, A. H.; Tippett, M. K.; Camargo, S. J.; Lee, C. Y.; Allen, J. T.

    2014-12-01

    History shows that substantial investments in protection against any specific type of natural disaster usually occur only after (usually shortly after) that specific type of disaster has happened in a given place. This is true even when it was well known before the event that there was a significant risk that it could occur. Presumably what psychologists Kahneman and Tversky have called "availability bias" is responsible, at least in part, for these failures to act on known but out-of-sample risks. While understandable, this human tendency prepares us poorly for events which are very rare (on the time scales of human lives) and even more poorly for a changing climate, as historical records become a poorer guide. A more forward-thinking and rational approach would require scientific risk assessments that can place meaningful probabilities on events that are rare enough to be absent from the historical record, and that can account for the influences of both anthropogenic climate change and low-frequency natural climate variability. The set of tools available for doing such risk assessments is still quite limited, particularly for some of the most extreme events such as tropical cyclones and tornadoes. We will briefly assess the state of the art for these events in particular, and describe some of our ongoing research to develop new tools for quantitative risk assessment using hybrids of statistical methods and physical understanding of the hazards.

  3. Climate change and health in Israel: adaptation policies for extreme weather events.

    PubMed

    Green, Manfred S; Pri-Or, Noemie Groag; Capeluto, Guedi; Epstein, Yoram; Paz, Shlomit

    2013-01-01

    Climatic changes have increased the world-wide frequency of extreme weather events such as heat waves, cold spells, floods, storms and droughts. These extreme events potentially affect the health status of millions of people, increasing disease and death. Since mitigation of climate change is a long and complex process, emphasis has recently been placed on the measures required for adaptation. Although the principles underlying these measures are universal, preparedness plans and policies need to be tailored to local conditions. In this paper, we conducted a review of the literature on the possible health consequences of extreme weather events in Israel, where the conditions are characteristic of the Mediterranean region. Strong evidence indicates that the frequency and duration of several types of extreme weather events are increasing in the Mediterranean Basin, including Israel. We examined the public health policy implications for adaptation to climate change in the region, and proposed public health adaptation policy options. Preparedness for the public health impact of increased extreme weather events is still relatively limited and clear public health policies are urgently needed. These include improved early warning and monitoring systems, preparedness of the health system, educational programs and the living environment. Regional collaboration should be a priority. PMID:23805950

  4. 3D Modelling of the impact of outflow channel events on Late Hesperian Mars climate.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turbet, M.; Forget, F.; Wordsworth, R.; Head, J. W.

    2015-10-01

    During late Hesperian, large outflow channels observed in the Chryse Planitia area [1] are thought to have been carved by catastrophic and sudden water floods [2,3]. It has been speculated that such events may have modified the climate, at least locally and episodically, and could have induced precipitations and even rain [4] that could explain the formation of Late Hesperian valley networks under a cold contemporaneous climate. We present below 3D modeling of a sudden and extreme release of warm liquid water in the Chryse Planitia area on ancient Mars, assuming a faint young Sun and CO2 -dominated atmospheres thicker than today. 3D climate modeling under these conditions [5,6], and performed with a water cycle taking into account water vapor and clouds, have not been able yet to produce liquid water or at least significant precipitations by climatic processes anywhere on the planet, even when maximizing the greenhouse effect of CO2 ice clouds.

  5. Estimating the impact of extreme climatic events on riverine sediment transport: new tools and methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lajeunesse, E.; Delacourt, C.; Allemand, P.; Limare, A.; Dessert, C.; Ammann, J.; Grandjean, P.

    2010-12-01

    A series of recent works have underlined that the flux of material exported outside of a watershed is dramatically increased during extreme climatic events, such as storms, tropical cyclones and hurricanes [Dadson et al., 2003 and 2004; Hilton et al., 2008]. Indeed the exceptionally high rainfall rates reached during these events trigger runoff and landsliding which destabilize slopes and accumulate a significant amount of sediments in flooded rivers. This observation raises the question of the control that extreme climatic events might exert on the denudation rate and the morphology of watersheds. Addressing this questions requires to measure sediment transport in flooded rivers. However most conventional sediment monitoring technics rely on manned operated measurements which cannot be performed during extreme climatic events. Monitoring riverine sediment transport during extreme climatic events remains therefore a challenging issue because of the lack of instruments and methodologies adapted to such extreme conditions. In this paper, we present a new methodology aimed at estimating the impact of extreme events on sediment transport in rivers. Our approach relies on the development of two instruments. The first one is an in-situ optical instrument, based on a LISST-25X sensor, capable of measuring both the water level and the concentration of suspended matter in rivers with a time step going from one measurement every hour at low flow to one measurement every 2 minutes during a flood. The second instrument is a remote controlled drone helicopter used to acquire high resolution stereophotogrammetric images of river beds used to compute DEMs and to estimate how flash floods impact the granulometry and the morphology of the river. These two instruments were developed and tested during a 1.5 years field survey performed from june 2007 to january 2009 on the Capesterre river located on Basse-Terre island (Guadeloupe archipelago, Lesser Antilles Arc).

  6. Extreme Rainfall Events Over Southern Africa: Assessment of a Climate Model to Reproduce Daily Extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, C.; Kniveton, D.; Layberry, R.

    2007-12-01

    It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, disease and political instability. Rainfall variability and the identification of rainfall extremes is a function of scale, so high spatial and temporal resolution data are preferred to identify extreme events and accurately predict future variability. The majority of previous climate model verification studies have compared model output with observational data at monthly timescales. In this research, the assessment of a state-of-the-art climate model to simulate climate at daily timescales is carried out using satellite derived rainfall data from the Microwave Infra-Red Algorithm (MIRA). This dataset covers the period from 1993-2002 and the whole of southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1 degree longitude/latitude. Once the model's ability to reproduce extremes has been assessed, idealised regions of SST anomalies are used to force the model, with the overall aim of investigating the ways in which SST anomalies influence rainfall extremes over southern Africa. In this paper, results from sensitivity testing of the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre's climate model's domain size are firstly presented. Then simulations of current climate from the model, operating in both regional and global mode, are compared to the MIRA dataset at daily timescales. Thirdly, the ability of the model to reproduce daily rainfall extremes will be assessed, again by a comparison with extremes from the MIRA dataset. Finally, the results from the idealised SST experiments are briefly presented, suggesting associations between rainfall extremes and both local and remote SST anomalies.

  7. Variability of extreme climate events in the territory and water area of Russia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Serykh, Ilya; Kostianoy, Andrey

    2016-04-01

    The Fourth (2007) and Fifth (2014) Assessment Reports on Climate Change of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) state that in the XXI century, climate change will be accompanied by an increase in the frequency, intensity and duration of extreme nature events such as: extreme precipitation and extreme high and low air temperatures. All these will lead to floods, droughts, fires, shallowing of rivers, lakes and water reservoirs, desertification, dust storms, melting of glaciers and permafrost, algal bloom events in the seas, lakes and water reservoirs. In its turn, these events will lead to chemical and biological contamination of water, land and air. These events will result in a deterioration of quality of life, significant financial loss due to damage to the houses, businesses, roads, agriculture, forestry, tourism, and in many cases they end in loss of life. These predictions are confirmed by the results of the studies presented in the RosHydromet First (2008) and Second (2014) Assessment Reports on Climate Change and its Consequences in Russian Federation. Scientists predictions have been repeatedly confirmed in the last 15 years - floods in Novorossiysk (2002), Krymsk and Gelendzhik (2012), the Far East (2013), heat waves in 2010, unusually cold winter (February) of 2012 and unusually warm winter of 2013/2014 in the European territory of Russia. In this regard, analysis and forecasting of extreme climate events associated with climate change in the territory of Russia are an extremely important task. This task is complicated by the fact that modern atmospheric models used by IPCC and RosHydromet badly reproduce and predict the intensity of precipitation. We are analyzing meteorological reanalysis data (NCEP/NCAR, 20th Century Reanalysis, ERA-20C, JRA-55) and satellite data (NASA and AVISO) on air, water and land temperature, rainfall, wind speed and cloud cover, water levels in seas and lakes, index of vegetation over the past 30-60 years

  8. Quantifying population exposure to airborne particulate matter during extreme events in California due to climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahmud, A.; Hixson, M.; Kleeman, M. J.

    2012-08-01

    The effect of climate change on population-weighted concentrations of particulate matter (PM) during extreme pollution events was studied using the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the UCD/CIT 3-D photochemical air quality model. A "business as usual" (B06.44) global emissions scenario was dynamically downscaled for the entire state of California between the years 2000-2006 and 2047-2053. Air quality simulations were carried out for 1008 days in each of the present-day and future climate conditions using year-2000 emissions. Population-weighted concentrations of PM0.1, PM2.5, and PM10 total mass, components species, and primary source contributions were calculated for California and three air basins: the Sacramento Valley air basin (SV), the San Joaquin Valley air basin (SJV) and the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB). Results over annual-average periods were contrasted with extreme events. The current study found that the change in annual-average population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations due to climate change between 2000 vs. 2050 within any major sub-region in California was not statistically significant. However, climate change did alter the annual-average composition of the airborne particles in the SoCAB, with notable reductions of elemental carbon (EC; -3%) and organic carbon (OC; -3%) due to increased annual-average wind speeds that diluted primary concentrations from gasoline combustion (-3%) and food cooking (-4%). In contrast, climate change caused significant increases in population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations in central California during extreme events. The maximum 24-h average PM2.5 concentration experienced by an average person during a ten-yr period in the SJV increased by 21% due to enhanced production of secondary particulate matter (manifested as NH4NO3). In general, climate change caused increased stagnation during future extreme pollution events, leading to higher exposure to diesel engines

  9. Quantifying population exposure to airborne particulate matter during extreme events in California due to climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahmud, A.; Hixson, M.; Kleeman, M. J.

    2012-02-01

    The effect of climate change on population-weighted concentrations of particulate matter (PM) during extreme events was studied using the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the UCD/CIT 3-D photochemical air quality model. A "business as usual" (B06.44) global emissions scenario was dynamically downscaled for the entire state of California between the years 2000-2006 and 2047-2053. Air quality simulations were carried out for 1008 days in each of the present-day and future climate conditions using year-2000 emissions. Population-weighted concentrations of PM0.1, PM2.5, and PM10 total mass, components species, and primary source contributions were calculated for California and three air basins: the Sacramento Valley air basin (SV), the San Joaquin Valley air basin (SJV) and the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB). Results over annual-average periods were contrasted with extreme events. Climate change between 2000 vs. 2050 did not cause a statistically significant change in annual-average population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations within any major sub-region of California in the current study. Climate change did alter the annual-average composition of the airborne particles in the SoCAB, with notable reductions of elemental carbon (EC; -3%) and organic carbon (OC; -3%) due to increased annual-average wind speeds that diluted primary concentrations from gasoline combustion (-3%) and food cooking (-4%). In contrast, climate change caused significant increases in population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations in central California during extreme events. The maximum 24-h average PM2.5 concentration experienced by an average person during a ten-year period in the SJV increased by 21% due to enhanced production of secondary particulate matter (manifested as NH4NO3). In general, climate change caused increased stagnation during future extreme pollution events, leading to higher exposure to diesel engines particles (+32%) and wood

  10. Developing research about extreme events and impacts to support international climate policy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Otto, Friederike; James, Rachel; Parker, Hannah; Boyd, Emily; Jones, Richard; Allen, Myles; Mitchell, Daniel; Cornforth, Rosalind

    2015-04-01

    Climate change is expected to have some of its most significant impacts through changes in the frequency and severity of extreme events. There is a pressing need for policy to support adaptation to changing climate risks, and to deal with residual loss and damage from climate change. In 2013, the Warsaw International Mechanism was established by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to address loss and damage in developing countries. Strategies to help vulnerable regions cope with losses from extreme events will presumably require information about the influence of anthropogenic forcing on extreme weather. But what kind of scientific evidence will be most useful for the Warsaw Mechanism? And how can the scientific communities working on extreme events and impacts develop their research to support the advance of this important policy? As climate scientists conducting probabilistic event attribution studies, we have been working with social scientists to investigate these questions. Our own research seeks to examine the role of external drivers, including greenhouse gas emissions, on the risk of extreme weather events such as heatwaves, flooding, and drought. We use large ensembles of climate models to compute the probability of occurrence of extreme events under current conditions and in a world which might have been without anthropogenic interference. In cases where the models are able to simulate extreme weather, the analysis allows for conclusions about the extent to which climate change may have increased, decreased, or made no change to the risk of the event occurring. These results could thus have relevance for the UNFCCC negotiations on loss and damage, and we have been communicating with policymakers and observers to the policy process to better understand how we can develop our research to support their work; by attending policy meetings, conducting interviews, and using a participatory game developed with the Red Cross

  11. Preface: Impacts of extreme climate events and disturbances on carbon dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiao, Jingfeng; Liu, Shuguang; Stoy, Paul C.

    2016-06-01

    The impacts of extreme climate events and disturbances (ECE&D) on the carbon cycle have received growing attention in recent years. This special issue showcases a collection of recent advances in understanding the impacts of ECE&D on carbon cycling. Notable advances include quantifying how harvesting activities impact forest structure, carbon pool dynamics, and recovery processes; observed drastic increases of the concentrations of dissolved organic carbon and dissolved methane in thermokarst lakes in western Siberia during a summer warming event; disentangling the roles of herbivores and fire on forest carbon dioxide flux; direct and indirect impacts of fire on the global carbon balance; and improved atmospheric inversion of regional carbon sources and sinks by incorporating disturbances. Combined, studies herein indicate several major research needs. First, disturbances and extreme events can interact with one another, and it is important to understand their overall impacts and also disentangle their effects on the carbon cycle. Second, current ecosystem models are not skillful enough to correctly simulate the underlying processes and impacts of ECE&D (e.g., tree mortality and carbon consequences). Third, benchmark data characterizing the timing, location, type, and magnitude of disturbances must be systematically created to improve our ability to quantify carbon dynamics over large areas. Finally, improving the representation of ECE&D in regional climate/earth system models and accounting for the resulting feedbacks to climate are essential for understanding the interactions between climate and ecosystem dynamics.

  12. From products to processes: Academic events to foster interdisciplinary and iterative dialogue in a changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Addor, Nans; Ewen, Tracy; Johnson, Leigh; Ćöltekin, Arzu; Derungs, Curdin; Muccione, Veruska

    2015-08-01

    In the context of climate change, both climate researchers and decision makers deal with uncertainties, but these uncertainties differ in fundamental ways. They stem from different sources, cover different temporal and spatial scales, might or might not be reducible or quantifiable, and are generally difficult to characterize and communicate. Hence, a mutual understanding between current and future climate researchers and decision makers must evolve for adaptation strategies and planning to progress. Iterative two-way dialogue can help to improve the decision making process by bridging current top-down and bottom-up approaches. One way to cultivate such interactions is by providing venues for these actors to interact and exchange on the uncertainties they face. We use a workshop-seminar series involving academic researchers, students, and decision makers as an opportunity to put this idea into practice and evaluate it. Seminars, case studies, and a round table allowed participants to reflect upon and experiment with uncertainties. An opinion survey conducted before and after the workshop-seminar series allowed us to qualitatively evaluate its influence on the participants. We find that the event stimulated new perspectives on research products and communication processes, and we suggest that similar events may ultimately contribute to the midterm goal of improving support for decision making in a changing climate. Therefore, we recommend integrating bridging events into university curriculum to foster interdisciplinary and iterative dialogue among researchers, decision makers, and students.

  13. Uncertainty Analysis of Climate Change Impact on Extreme Rainfall Events in the Apalachicola River Basin, Florida

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, D.; Hagen, S.; Bacopoulos, P.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change impact on the rainfall patterns during the summer season (May -- August) at the Apalachicola River basin (Florida Panhandle coast) is assessed using ensemble regional climate models (RCMs). Rainfall data for both baseline and future years (30-year periods) are obtained from North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) where the A2 emission scenario is used. Trend analysis is conducted based on historical rainfall data from three weather stations. Two methods are used to assess the climate change impact on the rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves, i.e., maximum intensity percentile-based method and sequential bias correction and maximum intensity percentile-based method. As a preliminary result from one RCM, extreme rainfall intensity is found to increase significantly with the increase in rainfall intensity increasing more dramatically with closer proximity to the coast. The projected rainfall pattern changes (spatial and temporal, mean and extreme values) provide guidance for developing adaptation and mitigation strategies on water resources management and ecosystem protections. More rainfall events move from July to June during future years for all three stations; in the upstream, the variability of time occurrence of extreme rainfall increases and more extreme events are shown to occur in June and August instead of May. These temporal shifts of extreme rainfall events will increase the probability of simultaneous heavy rainfall in the downstream and upstream in June during which flooding will be enhanced. The uncertainty analysis on the climate change impact on extreme rainfall events will be presented based on the simulations from the ensemble of RCMs.

  14. Abrupt shifts in Horn of Africa hydroclimate since the Last Glacial Maximum.

    PubMed

    Tierney, Jessica E; deMenocal, Peter B

    2013-11-15

    The timing and abruptness of the initiation and termination of the Early Holocene African Humid Period are subjects of ongoing debate, with direct consequences for our understanding of abrupt climate change, paleoenvironments, and early human cultural development. Here, we provide proxy evidence from the Horn of Africa region that documents abrupt transitions into and out of the African Humid Period in northeast Africa. Similar and generally synchronous abrupt transitions at other East African sites suggest that rapid shifts in hydroclimate are a regionally coherent feature. Our analysis suggests that the termination of the African Humid Period in the Horn of Africa occurred within centuries, underscoring the nonlinearity of the region's hydroclimate. PMID:24114782

  15. Sensitivity of water scarcity events to ENSO driven climate variability at the global scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Eisner, S.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

    2015-06-01

    Globally, freshwater shortage is one of the most important risks for society. Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have aggravated water scarcity over the past decades. A wide range of studies show that water scarcity will intensify in the future, as a result of both increased consumptive water use and in some regions climate change However, less attention has been paid to the impacts of climate variability on water scarcity, despite its importance for adaptation planning. Therefore, we present the first global scale sensitivity assessment of water scarcity and water availability to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the most dominant signal of climate variability. We show that over the time period 1961-2010, both water availability and water scarcity conditions are significantly correlated with ENSO-driven climate variability over a large proportion of the global land area (> 28.1%); an area inhabited by more than 31.4% of the global population. We also found, however, that climate variability alone is often not enough to trigger the actual incidence of water scarcity events. The sensitivity of a region to water scarcity events, expressed in terms of land area or population impacted, is determined by both hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Currently, the population actually impacted by water scarcity events consists of 39.6% (water stress) and 41.1% (water shortage) of the global population whilst only 11.4% (water stress) and 15.9% (water shortage) of the global population is at the same time living in areas sensitive to ENSO driven climate variability. These results are contrasted however by differences in found growth rates under changing socioeconomic conditions, which are relatively high in regions affected by water scarcity events. Given the correlations found between ENSO and both water availability and water scarcity, and the relative developments of water scarcity impacts under changing socioeconomic conditions, we suggest

  16. Sensitivity of water scarcity events to ENSO-driven climate variability at the global scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Eisner, S.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

    2015-10-01

    Globally, freshwater shortage is one of the most dangerous risks for society. Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have aggravated water scarcity over the past decades. A wide range of studies show that water scarcity will intensify in the future, as a result of both increased consumptive water use and, in some regions, climate change. Although it is well-known that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects patterns of precipitation and drought at global and regional scales, little attention has yet been paid to the impacts of climate variability on water scarcity conditions, despite its importance for adaptation planning. Therefore, we present the first global-scale sensitivity assessment of water scarcity to ENSO, the most dominant signal of climate variability. We show that over the time period 1961-2010, both water availability and water scarcity conditions are significantly correlated with ENSO-driven climate variability over a large proportion of the global land area (> 28.1 %); an area inhabited by more than 31.4 % of the global population. We also found, however, that climate variability alone is often not enough to trigger the actual incidence of water scarcity events. The sensitivity of a region to water scarcity events, expressed in terms of land area or population exposed, is determined by both hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Currently, the population actually impacted by water scarcity events consists of 39.6 % (CTA: consumption-to-availability ratio) and 41.1 % (WCI: water crowding index) of the global population, whilst only 11.4 % (CTA) and 15.9 % (WCI) of the global population is at the same time living in areas sensitive to ENSO-driven climate variability. These results are contrasted, however, by differences in growth rates found under changing socioeconomic conditions, which are relatively high in regions exposed to water scarcity events. Given the correlations found between ENSO and water availability and

  17. Sensitivity of Water Scarcity Events to ENSO-Driven Climate Variability at the Global Scale

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Eisner, S.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

    2015-01-01

    Globally, freshwater shortage is one of the most dangerous risks for society. Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have aggravated water scarcity over the past decades. A wide range of studies show that water scarcity will intensify in the future, as a result of both increased consumptive water use and, in some regions, climate change. Although it is well-known that El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects patterns of precipitation and drought at global and regional scales, little attention has yet been paid to the impacts of climate variability on water scarcity conditions, despite its importance for adaptation planning. Therefore, we present the first global-scale sensitivity assessment of water scarcity to ENSO, the most dominant signal of climate variability. We show that over the time period 1961-2010, both water availability and water scarcity conditions are significantly correlated with ENSO-driven climate variability over a large proportion of the global land area (> 28.1 %); an area inhabited by more than 31.4% of the global population. We also found, however, that climate variability alone is often not enough to trigger the actual incidence of water scarcity events. The sensitivity of a region to water scarcity events, expressed in terms of land area or population exposed, is determined by both hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Currently, the population actually impacted by water scarcity events consists of 39.6% (CTA: consumption-to-availability ratio) and 41.1% (WCI: water crowding index) of the global population, whilst only 11.4% (CTA) and 15.9% (WCI) of the global population is at the same time living in areas sensitive to ENSO-driven climate variability. These results are contrasted, however, by differences in growth rates found under changing socioeconomic conditions, which are relatively high in regions exposed to water scarcity events. Given the correlations found between ENSO and water availability and scarcity

  18. Convection-Resolving Climate Change Simulations: Intensification of Heavy Hourly Precipitation Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ban, N.; Schmidli, J.; Schar, C.

    2014-12-01

    Reliable climate-change projections of extreme precipitation events are of great interest to decision makers, due to potentially important hydrological impacts such as floods, land slides and debris flows. Low-resolution climate models generally project increases of heavy precipitation events with climate change, but there are large uncertainties related to the limited spatial resolution and the parameterized representation of atmospheric convection. Here we employ a convection-resolving version of the COSMO model across an extended region (1100 km x 1100 km) covering the European Alps to investigate the differences between parameterized and explicit convection in climate-change scenarios. We conduct 10-year long integrations at resolutions of 12 and 2km. Validation using ERA-Interim driven simulations reveals major improvements with the 2km resolution, in particular regarding the diurnal cycle of mean precipitation and the representation of hourly extremes. In addition, 2km simulations replicate the observed super-adiabatic scaling at precipitation stations, i.e. peak hourly events increase faster with temperature than the Clausius-Clapeyron scaling of 7%/K (see Ban et al. 2014). Convection-resolving climate change scenarios are conducted using control (1991-2000) and scenario (2081-2090) simulations driven by a CMIP5 GCM (i.e. the MPI-ESM-LR) under the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario. Comparison between 12 and 2km resolutions with parameterized and explicit convection, respectively, reveals close agreement in terms of mean summer precipitation amounts (decrease by 30%), and regarding slight increases of heavy day-long events (amounting to 15% for 90th-percentile for wet-day precipitation). However, the different resolutions yield large differences regarding extreme hourly precipitation, with the 2km version projecting substantially faster increases of heavy hourly precipitation events (about 30% increases for 90th-percentile hourly events). Ban, N., J. Schmidli and C. Sch

  19. Heinrich events: Massive late Pleistocene detritus layers of the North Atlantic and their global climate imprint

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hemming, Sidney R.

    2004-03-01

    Millennial climate oscillations of the glacial interval are interrupted by extreme events, the so-called Heinrich events of the North Atlantic. Their near-global footprint is a testament to coherent interactions among Earth's atmosphere, oceans, and cryosphere on millennial timescales. Heinrich detritus appears to have been derived from the region around Hudson Strait. It was deposited over approximately 500 ± 250 years. Several mechanisms have been proposed for the origin of the layers: binge-purge cycle of the Laurentide ice sheet, jökulhlaup activity from a Hudson Bay lake, and an ice shelf buildup/collapse fed by Hudson Strait. To determine the origin of the Heinrich events, I recommend (1) further studies of the timing and duration of the events, (2) further sedimentology study near the Hudson Strait, and (3) greater spatial and temporal resolution studies of the layers as well as their precursory intervals. Studies of previous glacial intervals may also provide important constraints.

  20. Climate Extremes Events and their Connection with Runoff in the Yellow River Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, Caihong; Lei, Deyi; He, Huli; Wang, Jijun

    2016-04-01

    This study analyzes the temporal and spatial distribution of runoff and their relationship with the extreme values of eight climate indices, based on observational data from 143 meteorological stations and 6 hydrological stations across the basin. The eight core indices selected from the STARDEX projects reflect rather moderate extremes. Statistics methods and GIS technology were be used for analysis on the relationship and distribution characteristics. We analyzed the reason of runoff change and the relationship between the climate extreme events and observed runoff from six hydrological stations. Our results show that the annual and seasonal runoff showed obviously decrease tendency. Sharp decreases of runoff in six hydrological stations occurred in the late 1980s and 1990s. It can be seen that the decrease in runoff was caused by climate change, increased demands for water supply, land use change, etc. And the difference between the magnitude of the increasing and decreasing trends for different indices at different stations suggests that the climate extremes and environment change resulted in a decrease in runoff. The results also show that the shortage of water resources will become more pronounced in the Yellow River Basin with the increased occurrence of climate extremes. The results presented here will help to improve our understanding of the changes to climate extremes, and provide a basis for further investigation.

  1. Exposure to Unethical Career Events: Effects on Decision-Making, Climate, and Socialization

    PubMed Central

    Mumford, Michael D.; Waples, Ethan P.; Antes, Alison L.; Murphy, Stephen T.; Connelly, Shane; Brown, Ryan P.; Devenport, Lynn D.

    2009-01-01

    An implicit goal of many interventions intended to enhance integrity is to minimize peoples’ exposure to unethical events. The intent of the present effort was to examine if exposure to unethical practices in the course of one’s work is related to ethical decision-making. Accordingly, 248 doctoral students in the biological, health, and social sciences were asked to complete a field appropriate measure of ethical decision-making. In addition, they were asked to complete measures examining the perceived acceptability of unethical events and a measure examining perceptions of ethical climate. When these criterion measures were correlated with a measure examining the frequency with which they had been exposed to unethical events in their day-to-day work, it was found that event exposure was strongly related to ethical decision-making, but less strongly related to climate perceptions and perceptions of event acceptability. However, these relationships were moderated by level of experience. The implications of these findings for practices intended to improve ethics are discussed. PMID:19936323

  2. Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events, and Human Health Implications in the Asia Pacific Region.

    PubMed

    Hashim, Jamal Hisham; Hashim, Zailina

    2016-03-01

    The Asia Pacific region is regarded as the most disaster-prone area of the world. Since 2000, 1.2 billion people have been exposed to hydrometeorological hazards alone through 1215 disaster events. The impacts of climate change on meteorological phenomena and environmental consequences are well documented. However, the impacts on health are more elusive. Nevertheless, climate change is believed to alter weather patterns on the regional scale, giving rise to extreme weather events. The impacts from extreme weather events are definitely more acute and traumatic in nature, leading to deaths and injuries, as well as debilitating and fatal communicable diseases. Extreme weather events include heat waves, cold waves, floods, droughts, hurricanes, tropical cyclones, heavy rain, and snowfalls. Globally, within the 20-year period from 1993 to 2012, more than 530 000 people died as a direct result of almost 15 000 extreme weather events, with losses of more than US$2.5 trillion in purchasing power parity. PMID:26377857

  3. An Abrupt Change in the African Monsoon at the end of the Younger Dryas?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Talbot, M. R.; Filippi, M. L.; Jensen, N. B.; Tiercelin, J.

    2005-12-01

    A variety of proxy palaeoclimatic records from tropical Africa and the adjacent oceans suggest that a climatic event equivalent to the Younger Dryas (YD) also affected this region. To date however, little attention has been directed towards the end of the YD in Africa, even though it has been identified as a period of particularly rapid and profound climatic change in the circum-North Atlantic region. High-resolution studies of variations in the elemental and stable carbon- and nitrogen-isotope composition of organic matter in cores from Lakes Malawi, Tanganyika and Bosumtwi (tropical Africa) indicate an abrupt change in the wind-driven circulation of these lakes that, within the limits of available chronologies, was contemporaneous with the end of the YD in the northern hemisphere. The change was apparently coincident with the transition to humid conditions in the central Sahara, with shifts in surface winds recorded in cores from off the coasts of East and West Africa, and possibly also with the onset of the last phase of ice accumulation on Mt. Kilimanjaro. Together, the evidence suggests an abrupt northward translation of the African monsoon system at ca. 11.5 +/- 0.3 cal. ka BP.

  4. Vulnerability and resilience of European ecosystems towards extreme climatic events: The ecosystem perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thonicke, Kirsten; Rolinski, Susanne; Walz, Ariane; von Bloh, Werner; van Oijen, Marcel; Davin, Edouard; Vieli, Barla; Kato, Tomomichi; Beer, Christian

    2014-05-01

    Extremes of meteorological events may but do not have to cause damages in ecosystems. Climate change is expected to have a strong impact on the resilience and stability of ecosystems worldwide. So far, the impacts of trends and extremes of physical drivers on ecosystems have generally been studied regardless of the extremeness of the ecosystem response. We base our analysis on a Probabilistic Risk Assessment concept of Van Oijen et al. (2013) quantifying the vulnerability of vegetation dynamics in relation to the extremeness of meteorological drivers such as temperature, precipitation or drought indices. Here, the definition of extreme, hazardous weather conditions is based on the ecosystem response. Instead of searching for extreme meteorological events, we define extreme ecosystem responses in terms of threshold levels of carbon uptake, and search for the meteorological conditions which are responsible. Having defined hazardous events in this way, we quantify the vulnerability or resilience of ecosystems to such hazards. We apply this approach on results of different vegetation models (such as LPJmL, Orchidee, JSBACH or CLM4) and the forest model BASFOR using climatic input for Europe from the WATCH-ERAI-REMO climate dataset with the SRES A1B emission scenario. Our results show that under current climatic conditions, the southern part of Europe already suffers severe heat and drought stress which is reflected in our approach by vulnerability values being high for precipitation, relatively high for the SPEI index, moderately high for temperature and quite high for the consecutive dry days. Thus, hazard occurrence is frequent enough to determine ecosystem vulnerability but this depends on the definition of the threshold of hazardous ecosystem responses. Vulnerability values in the Mediterranean increase towards the end of the 21st century for all models indicating that a tipping point towards drought damages has been reached for the chosen climate scenario.

  5. Do climate extreme events foster violent civil conflicts? A coincidence analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Donges, Jonathan F.; Donner, Reik V.

    2014-05-01

    Civil conflicts promoted by adverse environmental conditions represent one of the most important potential feedbacks in the global socio-environmental nexus. While the role of climate extremes as a triggering factor is often discussed, no consensus is yet reached about the cause-and-effect relation in the observed data record. Here we present results of a rigorous statistical coincidence analysis based on the Munich Re Inc. extreme events database and the Uppsala conflict data program. We report evidence for statistically significant synchronicity between climate extremes with high economic impact and violent conflicts for various regions, although no coherent global signal emerges from our analysis. Our results indicate the importance of regional vulnerability and might aid to identify hot-spot regions for potential climate-triggered violent social conflicts.

  6. Abrupt decadal-to-centennial hydroclimate changes in the Mediterranean region since the mid-Holocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, Hsun-Ming; Shen, Chuan-Chou; Jiang, Xiuyang; Wang, Yongjin; Mii, Horng-Sheng; Michel, Véronique

    2016-04-01

    A series of severe drought events in the Mediterranean region over the past two decades has posed a threat on both human society and biosystem. Holocene hydrological dynamics can offer valuable clues for understanding future climate and making proper adaption strategy. Here, we present a decadal-resolved stalagmite record documenting various hydroclimatic fluctuations in the north central Mediterranean region since the middle Holocene. The stalagmite δ18O sequence shows dramatic instability, characterized by abrupt shifts between dry and wet conditions <50 years. The timing of regional culture demises, such as the Hittite Kingdom, Mycenaean Greece, Akkadian Empire, Egyptian Old Kingdom, and Uruk, occurred during the drought events, suggesting an important role of climate impact on human civilization. The unstable hydroclimate evolution is related to transferred North Atlantic Oscillation states. Rate of rapid transfer of precipitation patterns, which can be pin-pointed by our good chronology, improves the prediction to future climate changes in North Atlantic region. We also found that a strong correlation between this stalagmite δ18O and sea surface temperatures especially in Pacific Ocean. This agreement suggests a distant interregional climate teleconnection.

  7. Centennial-scale climate cooling with a sudden cold event around 8,200 years ago.

    PubMed

    Rohling, Eelco J; Pälike, Heiko

    2005-04-21

    The extent of climate variability during the current interglacial period, the Holocene, is still debated. Temperature records derived from central Greenland ice cores show one significant temperature anomaly between 8,200 and 8,100 years ago, which is often attributed to a meltwater outflow into the North Atlantic Ocean and a slowdown of North Atlantic Deep Water formation--this anomaly provides an opportunity to study such processes with relevance to present-day freshening of the North Atlantic. Anomalies in climate proxy records from locations around the globe are often correlated with this sharp event in Greenland. But the anomalies in many of these records span 400 to 600 years, start from about 8,600 years ago and form part of a repeating pattern within the Holocene. More sudden climate changes around 8,200 years ago appear superimposed on this longer-term cooling. The compounded nature of the signals implies that far-field climate anomalies around 8,200 years ago cannot be used in a straightforward manner to assess the impact of a slowdown of North Atlantic Deep Water formation, and the geographical extent of the rapid cooling event 8,200 years ago remains to be determined. PMID:15846336

  8. Climate change impact and uncertainty analysis of extreme rainfall events in the Apalachicola River basin, Florida

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Dingbao; Hagen, Scott C.; Alizad, Karim

    2013-02-01

    SummaryClimate change impact on rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves at the Apalachicola River basin (Florida Panhandle coast) is assessed using an ensemble of regional climate models (RCMs) obtained from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. The suitability of seven RCMs on simulating temporal variation of rainfall at the fine-scale is assessed for the case study region. Two RCMs, HRM3-HADCM3 and RCM3-GFDL, are found to have good skill scores in generating high intensity events at the mid-afternoon (2:00-4:00 PM). These two RCMs are selected for assessing potential climate change impact on IDF curves. Two methods are used to conduct bias correction on future rainfall IDF curves, i.e., maximum intensity percentile-based method, and sequential bias correction and maximum intensity percentile-based method. Based on the projection by HRM3-HADCM3, there is no significant change in rainfall intensity at the upstream and middle stream stations but higher intensity at the downstream station. RCM3-GFDL projected increased rainfall intensity from upstream to downstream, particularly at the downstream. The potential temporal shift of extreme rainfall events coupled with overall increased intensities may exacerbate flood magnitudes and lead to increased sediment and nutrient loadings to the estuary, especially in light of sea level change.

  9. Antarctic Climate Change: Extreme Events Disrupt Plastic Phenotypic Response in Adélie Penguins

    PubMed Central

    Lescroël, Amélie; Ballard, Grant; Grémillet, David; Authier, Matthieu; Ainley, David G.

    2014-01-01

    In the context of predicted alteration of sea ice cover and increased frequency of extreme events, it is especially timely to investigate plasticity within Antarctic species responding to a key environmental aspect of their ecology: sea ice variability. Using 13 years of longitudinal data, we investigated the effect of sea ice concentration (SIC) on the foraging efficiency of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) breeding in the Ross Sea. A ‘natural experiment’ brought by the exceptional presence of giant icebergs during 5 consecutive years provided unprecedented habitat variation for testing the effects of extreme events on the relationship between SIC and foraging efficiency in this sea-ice dependent species. Significant levels of phenotypic plasticity were evident in response to changes in SIC in normal environmental conditions. Maximum foraging efficiency occurred at relatively low SIC, peaking at 6.1% and decreasing with higher SIC. The ‘natural experiment’ uncoupled efficiency levels from SIC variations. Our study suggests that lower summer SIC than currently observed would benefit the foraging performance of Adélie penguins in their southernmost breeding area. Importantly, it also provides evidence that extreme climatic events can disrupt response plasticity in a wild seabird population. This questions the predictive power of relationships built on past observations, when not only the average climatic conditions are changing but the frequency of extreme climatic anomalies is also on the rise. PMID:24489657

  10. Antarctic climate change: extreme events disrupt plastic phenotypic response in Adélie penguins.

    PubMed

    Lescroël, Amélie; Ballard, Grant; Grémillet, David; Authier, Matthieu; Ainley, David G

    2014-01-01

    In the context of predicted alteration of sea ice cover and increased frequency of extreme events, it is especially timely to investigate plasticity within Antarctic species responding to a key environmental aspect of their ecology: sea ice variability. Using 13 years of longitudinal data, we investigated the effect of sea ice concentration (SIC) on the foraging efficiency of Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) breeding in the Ross Sea. A 'natural experiment' brought by the exceptional presence of giant icebergs during 5 consecutive years provided unprecedented habitat variation for testing the effects of extreme events on the relationship between SIC and foraging efficiency in this sea-ice dependent species. Significant levels of phenotypic plasticity were evident in response to changes in SIC in normal environmental conditions. Maximum foraging efficiency occurred at relatively low SIC, peaking at 6.1% and decreasing with higher SIC. The 'natural experiment' uncoupled efficiency levels from SIC variations. Our study suggests that lower summer SIC than currently observed would benefit the foraging performance of Adélie penguins in their southernmost breeding area. Importantly, it also provides evidence that extreme climatic events can disrupt response plasticity in a wild seabird population. This questions the predictive power of relationships built on past observations, when not only the average climatic conditions are changing but the frequency of extreme climatic anomalies is also on the rise. PMID:24489657

  11. Extreme Events in China under Climate Change: Uncertainty and related impacts (CSSP-FOREX)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leckebusch, Gregor C.; Befort, Daniel J.; Hodges, Kevin I.

    2016-04-01

    Suitable adaptation strategies or the timely initiation of related mitigation efforts in East Asia will strongly depend on robust and comprehensive information about future near-term as well as long-term potential changes in the climate system. Therefore, understanding the driving mechanisms associated with the East Asian climate is of major importance. The FOREX project (Fostering Regional Decision Making by the Assessment of Uncertainties of Future Regional Extremes and their Linkage to Global Climate System Variability for China and East Asia) focuses on the investigation of extreme wind and rainfall related events over Eastern Asia and their possible future changes. Here, analyses focus on the link between local extreme events and their driving weather systems. This includes the coupling between local rainfall extremes and tropical cyclones, the Meiyu frontal system, extra-tropical teleconnections and monsoonal activity. Furthermore, the relation between these driving weather systems and large-scale variability modes, e.g. NAO, PDO, ENSO is analysed. Thus, beside analysing future changes of local extreme events, the temporal variability of their driving weather systems and related large-scale variability modes will be assessed in current CMIP5 global model simulations to obtain more robust results. Beyond an overview of FOREX itself, first results regarding the link between local extremes and their steering weather systems based on observational and reanalysis data are shown. Special focus is laid on the contribution of monsoonal activity, tropical cyclones and the Meiyu frontal system on the inter-annual variability of the East Asian summer rainfall.

  12. The Challenges from Extreme Climate Events for Sustainable Development in Amazonia: the Acre State Experience

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Araújo, M. D. N. M.

    2015-12-01

    In the past ten years Acre State, located in Brazil´s southwestern Amazonia, has confronted sequential and severe extreme events in the form of droughts and floods. In particular, the droughts and forest fires of 2005 and 2010, the 2012 flood within Acre, the 2014 flood of the Madeira River which isolated Acre for two months from southern Brazil, and the most severe flooding throughout the state in 2015 shook the resilience of Acrean society. The accumulated costs of these events since 2005 have exceeded 300 million dollars. For the last 17 years, successive state administrations have been implementing a socio-environmental model of development that strives to link sustainable economic production with environmental conservation, particularly for small communities. In this context, extreme climate events have interfered significantly with this model, increasing the risks of failure. The impacts caused by these events on development in the state have been exacerbated by: a) limitations in monitoring; b) extreme events outside of Acre territory (Madeira River Flood) affecting transportation systems; c) absence of reliable information for decision-making; and d) bureaucratic and judicial impediments. Our experience in these events have led to the following needs for scientific input to reduce the risk of disasters: 1) better monitoring and forecasting of deforestation, fires, and hydro-meteorological variables; 2) ways to increase risk perception in communities; 3) approaches to involve more effectively local and regional populations in the response to disasters; 4) more accurate measurements of the economic and social damages caused by these disasters. We must improve adaptation to and mitigation of current and future extreme climate events and implement a robust civil defense, adequate to these new challenges.

  13. Heinrich events modeled with a coupled complex ice sheet-climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ziemen, Florian; Rodehacke, Christian; Mikolajewicz Mikolajewicz, Uwe

    2013-04-01

    We investigate glacial climate variability with a coupled ice sheet model (ISM) - atmosphere-ocean-vegetation general circulation model (AOVGCM) system, focusing on one of the most prominent features of glacial climate variability, the Heinrich events. Modeling past climates and periods of past climate change is an important test of the capability of climate models to correctly represent future climate changes. Only if we can correctly represent past climates and climate changes, we can be confident about our predictions of future climate changes. We show results from two experiments: (1) a steady-state LGM experiment where the ice sheet model is accelerated by a factor of 10 compared to the climate model covering 30 kyrs in the ISM (3 kyrs in the AOVGCM) and (2) a synchronously coupled experiment focusing in on one ice sheet collapse covering 3.2 kyrs in both models. For the experiments, we coupled a modified version of the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (mPISM) bidirectionally with the AOVGCM ECHAM5/MPIOM/LPJ. ECHAM5 and LPJ were run in T31 resolution (~ 3.75°), MPIOM on a grid with a nominal resolution of 3° and poles over Greenland and Antarctica, mPISM on a 20 km grid covering most of the northern hemisphere. In the models, as well as in the coupling, no flux correction or anomaly maps are applied. The ice sheet surface mass balance is computed using a positive degree day scheme with lapse rate correction and height desertification effect. In the experiments, the surges of the Hudson Strait Ice Stream reach discharge rates of 60000 m3/s and show a typical recurrence interval of 7 kyrs, matching the basic characteristics for Heinrich events inferred from proxy data. The surges are consequences of an internal instability mechanism suggested by MacAyeal (1993) and various parts of the ice sheets show repeated surging. The large ice discharge during a surge of the Hudson Strait Ice Stream causes an expansion of the sea ice cover in the Labrador Sea and the adjacent

  14. A Climate Network Based Index to Distinguish Sub- and Supercritical ENSO Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, Qingyi; Dijkstra, Henk

    2015-04-01

    The Bjerknes stability (BJ) index has frequently been used to measure the stability of the Pacific climate state with respect to the occurrence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. Although it has been recently criticized for not always reflecting the heat budget accurately, the BJ index nicely distinguishes the effects of different feedbacks on the growth of the ENSO mode of variability. Its main disadvantage is, however, that it has been determined from reanalysis products but not from available observations. This work proposes a similar stability index which is easier to evaluate. Tools of complex network theory are used to reconstruct a climate network from available sea surface temperature data. The new stability index Sd is derived from one of the topological properties (connectedness) of this network. By using output from the Cane-Zebiak model, we demonstrate that Sd provides similar information as the BJ index and can monitor whether an ENSO event is sub- or supercritical. By considering observed temperature data, we show that the 1972 and 1982 events were subcritical (excited by stochastic noise) while the 1997 and 2009 events were supercritical (sustained oscillation).

  15. An extreme climatic event alters marine ecosystem structure in a global biodiversity hotspot

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wernberg, Thomas; Smale, Dan A.; Tuya, Fernando; Thomsen, Mads S.; Langlois, Timothy J.; de Bettignies, Thibaut; Bennett, Scott; Rousseaux, Cecile S.

    2013-01-01

    Extreme climatic events, such as heat waves, are predicted to increase in frequency and magnitude as a consequence of global warming but their ecological effects are poorly understood, particularly in marine ecosystems. In early 2011, the marine ecosystems along the west coast of Australia--a global hotspot of biodiversity and endemism--experienced the highest-magnitude warming event on record. Sea temperatures soared to unprecedented levels and warming anomalies of 2-4°C persisted for more than ten weeks along >2,000km of coastline. We show that biodiversity patterns of temperate seaweeds, sessile invertebrates and demersal fish were significantly different after the warming event, which led to a reduction in the abundance of habitat-forming seaweeds and a subsequent shift in community structure towards a depauperate state and a tropicalization of fish communities. We conclude that extreme climatic events are key drivers of biodiversity patterns and that the frequency and intensity of such episodes have major implications for predictive models of species distribution and ecosystem structure, which are largely based on gradual warming trends.

  16. Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Flood Event Types in Two Alpine Catchments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turkington, T.; Breinl, K.; Jetten, V.; Ettema, J.

    2014-12-01

    A variety of different climate factors can trigger floods: intense rainfall, long lasting rainfall or extreme amount of snowmelt. As a result, changes in climate extremes can affect both the frequency of floods, but also other factors such as seasonality and duration, all of which have implications on local social and ecological systems. Therefore, we present a technique for examining projected changes in flood events types, focusing on antecedent meteorological conditions. Floods (characterized by the historical 10 and 25-year return level discharge) are clustered into causal types based on rainfall, antecedent precipitation and temperature. A multi-site weather generator coupled with a conceptual rainfall-runoff model is employed to increase the number of flood events. Quantile mapping of precipitation and temperature projections is then used in the development of future discharge. The technique is applied to two different catchments in the European Alps: a smaller catchment in the southern French Alps, dominated by rain-on-snow floods, and a larger catchment in Austria, with more floods during summer. The results show that changes in precipitation and temperature can alter not only the frequency, but also the distribution of flood event types in the future. Furthermore, assessing changes in flood event types provides information about why the frequency of floods in an alpine catchment may change, even if the projections themselves are highly uncertain.

  17. Climatic stress events in the source region of modern man - Matching the last 20 ka of the Chew Bahir climate record with occupation history of adjacent refugia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Foerster, Verena; Vogelsang, Ralf; Junginger, Annett; Asrat, Asfawossen; Lamb, Henry F.; Viehberg, Finn; Trauth, Martin H.; Schaebitz, Frank

    2014-05-01

    A rapidly changing environment is considered an important driver not just for human evolution but also for cultural and technological innovation and migration. To evaluate the impact that climatic shifts on different timescales might have had on the living conditions of prehistoric humans is one of the cornerstones in current research, but continuous paleo-climate records in the vicinity of archaeological sites are still rare. As a contribution towards a better understanding of this human-climate interaction we here present a match between the last 20 ka of the just recently developed paleo-climate record from Chew Bahir in southern Ethiopia and the settlement history of adjacent possible refugia. The Chew Bahir basin, as a newly explored reliable climatic archive, lies in a biogeographically highly sensitive transition zone between the Main Ethiopian Rift and the Omo-Turkana basin and hence represents an ideal site to study climatic variability in the source region of modern man. The climatic history with a temporal resolution of up to 3 years is showing besides orbitally driven long-term transitions in and out of favourable living conditions several short abrupt excursions towards drier or wetter episodes. Comparing the frequency of archaeological findings as a parameter for human occupation to this close-by climate record that allows us to outline how complex the interplay between humans and environment during the last 20 ka really was, which dynamics might have been involved and which role the temporal dimension of environmental changes could have played for the adaption of humans.

  18. Release of Mercury Mine Tailings from Mine Impacted Watersheds by Extreme Events Resulting from Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rytuba, J. J.

    2015-12-01

    An increase in intensity and frequency of extreme events resulting from climate change is expected to result in extreme precipitation events on both regional and local scales. Extreme precipitation events have the potential to mobilize large volumes of mercury (Hg) mine tailings in watersheds where tailings reside in the floodplain downstream from historic Hg mines. The California Hg mineral belt produced one third of the worlds Hg from over 100 mines from the 1850's to 1972. In the absence of environmental regulations, tailings were disposed of into streams adjacent to the mines in order to have them transported from the mine site during storm events. Thus most of the tailings no longer reside at the mine site. Addition of tailings to the streams resulted in stream aggradation, increased over-bank flow, and deposition of tailings in the floodplain for up to 25 kms downstream from the mines. After cessation of mining, the decrease in tailings entering the streams resulted in degradation, incision of the streams into the floodplain, and inability of the streams to access the floodplain. Thus Hg tailings have remained stored in the floodplain since cessation of mining. Hg phases in these tailings consist of cinnabar, metacinnabar and montroydite based on EXAFS analysis. Size analysis indicates that Hg phases are fine grained, less than 1 um. The last regional scale extreme precipitation events to effect the entire area of the California Hg mineral belt were the ARkStorm events of 1861-1862 that occurred prior to large scale Hg mining. Extreme regional ARkStorm precipitation events as well as local summer storms, such as the July 2006 flood in the Clear Creek Hg mining district, are expected to increase in frequency and have the potential to remobilize the large volume of tailings stored in floodplain deposits. Although Hg mine remediation has decreased Hg release from mine sites in a period of benign climate, no remediation efforts have addressed the large source of

  19. Climate Products and Services to Meet the Challenges of Extreme Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCalla, M. R.

    2008-12-01

    The 2002 Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (OFCM1)-sponsored report, Weather Information for Surface Transportation: National Needs Assessment Report, addressed meteorological needs for six core modes of surface transportation: roadway, railway, transit, marine transportation/operations, pipeline, and airport ground operations. The report's goal was to articulate the weather information needs and attendant surface transportation weather products and services for those entities that use, operate, and manage America's surface transportation infrastructure. The report documented weather thresholds and associated impacts which are critical for decision-making in surface transportation. More recently, the 2008 Climate Change Science Program's (CCSP) Synthesis and Assessment Product (SAP) 4.7 entitled, Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Transportation Systems and Infrastructure: Gulf Coast Study, Phase I, included many of the impacts from the OFCM- sponsored report in Table 1.1 of this SAP.2 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that since 1950, there has been an increase in the number of heat waves, heavy precipitation events, and areas of drought. Moreover, the IPCC indicated that greater wind speeds could accompany more severe tropical cyclones.3 Taken together, the OFCM, CCSP, and IPCC reports indicate not only the significance of extreme events, but also the potential increasing significance of many of the weather thresholds and associated impacts which are critical for decision-making in surface transportation. Accordingly, there is a real and urgent need to understand what climate products and services are available now to address the weather thresholds within the surface transportation arena. It is equally urgent to understand what new climate products and services are needed to address these weather thresholds, and articulate what can be done to fill the gap between the

  20. Evolution of extreme temperature events in short term climate projection for Iberian Peninsula.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodriguez, Alfredo; Tarquis, Ana M.; Sanchez, Enrique; Dosio, Alessandro; Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita

    2014-05-01

    Extreme events of maximum and minimum temperatures are a main hazard for agricultural production in Iberian Peninsula. For this purpose, in this study we analyze projections of their evolution that could be valid for the next decade, represented in this study by the 30-year period 2004-2034 (target period). For this purpose two kinds of data were used in this study: 1) observations from the station network of AEMET (Spanish National Meteorological Agency) for five Spanish locations, and 2) simulated data at a resolution of 50 ×50 km horizontal grid derived from the outputs of twelve Regional Climate Models (RCMs) taken from project ENSEMBLES (van der Linden and Mitchell, 2009), with a bias correction (Dosio and Paruolo, 2011; Dosio et al., 2012) regarding the observational dataset Spain02 (Herrera et al., 2012). To validate the simulated climate, the available period of observations was compared to a baseline period (1964-1994) of simulated climate for all locations. Then, to analyze the changes for the present/very next future, probability of extreme temperature events for 2004-2034 were compared to that of the baseline period. Although only minor changes are expected, small variations in variability may have a significant impact in crop performance. The objective of the work is to evaluate the utility of these short term projections for potential users, as for instance insurance companies. References Dosio A. and Paruolo P., 2011. Bias correction of the ENSEMBLES high-resolution climate change projections for use by impact models: Evaluation on the present climate. Journal of Geophysical Research, VOL. 116,D16106, doi:10.1029/2011JD015934 Dosio A., Paruolo P. and Rojas R., 2012. Bias correction of the ENSEMBLES high resolution climate change projections for use by impact models: Analysis of the climate change signal. Journal of Geophysical Research,Volume 117, D17, doi: 0.1029/2012JD017968 Herrera et. al. (2012) Development and Analysis of a 50 year high

  1. Non-linear time series analysis of precipitation events using regional climate networks for Germany

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rheinwalt, Aljoscha; Boers, Niklas; Marwan, Norbert; Kurths, Jürgen; Hoffmann, Peter; Gerstengarbe, Friedrich-Wilhelm; Werner, Peter

    2016-02-01

    Synchronous occurrences of heavy rainfall events and the study of their relation in time and space are of large socio-economical relevance, for instance for the agricultural and insurance sectors, but also for the general well-being of the population. In this study, the spatial synchronization structure is analyzed as a regional climate network constructed from precipitation event series. The similarity between event series is determined by the number of synchronous occurrences. We propose a novel standardization of this number that results in synchronization scores which are not biased by the number of events in the respective time series. Additionally, we introduce a new version of the network measure directionality that measures the spatial directionality of weighted links by also taking account of the effects of the spatial embedding of the network. This measure provides an estimate of heavy precipitation isochrones by pointing out directions along which rainfall events synchronize. We propose a climatological interpretation of this measure in terms of propagating fronts or event traces and confirm it for Germany by comparing our results to known atmospheric circulation patterns.

  2. Climatic and biotic extreme events moderate long-term responses of above- and belowground sub-Arctic heathland communities to climate change.

    PubMed

    Bokhorst, Stef; Phoenix, Gareth K; Berg, Matty P; Callaghan, Terry V; Kirby-Lambert, Christopher; Bjerke, Jarle W

    2015-11-01

    Climate change impacts are not uniform across the Arctic region because interacting factors causes large variations in local ecosystem change. Extreme climatic events and population cycles of herbivores occur simultaneously against a background of gradual climate warming trends and can redirect ecosystem change along routes that are difficult to predict. Here, we present the results from sub-Arctic heath vegetation and its belowground micro-arthropod community in response to the two main drivers of vegetation damage in this region: extreme winter warming events and subsequent outbreaks of the defoliating autumnal moth caterpillar (Epirrita autumnata). Evergreen dwarf shrub biomass decreased (30%) following extreme winter warming events and again by moth caterpillar grazing. Deciduous shrubs that were previously exposed to an extreme winter warming event were not affected by the moth caterpillar grazing, while those that were not exposed to warming events (control plots) showed reduced (23%) biomass from grazing. Cryptogam cover increased irrespective of grazing or winter warming events. Micro-arthropods declined (46%) following winter warming but did not respond to changes in plant community. Extreme winter warming and caterpillar grazing suppressed the CO2 fluxes of the ecosystem. Evergreen dwarf shrubs are disadvantaged in a future sub-Arctic with more stochastic climatic and biotic events. Given that summer warming may further benefit deciduous over evergreen shrubs, event and trend climate change may both act against evergreen shrubs and the ecosystem functions they provide. This is of particular concern given that Arctic heath vegetation is typically dominated by evergreen shrubs. Other components of the vegetation showed variable responses to abiotic and biotic events, and their interaction indicates that sub-Arctic vegetation response to multiple pressures is not easy to predict from single-factor responses. Therefore, while biotic and climatic events may

  3. Impacts of Climate Change On The Occurrence of Extreme Events: The Mice Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Palutikof, J. P.; Mice Team

    It is widely accepted that climate change due to global warming will have substan- tial impacts on the natural environment, and on human activities. Furthermore, it is increasingly recognized that changes in the severity and frequency of extreme events, such as windstorm and flood, are likely to be more important than changes in the average climate. The EU-funded project MICE (Modelling the Impacts of Climate Extremes) commenced in January 2002. It seeks to identify the likely changes in the occurrence of extremes of rainfall, temperature and windstorm due to global warm- ing, using information from climate models as a basis, and to study the impacts of these changes in selected European environments. The objectives are: a) to evaluate, by comparison with gridded and station observations, the ability of climate models to successfully reproduce the occurrence of extremes at the required spatial and temporal scales. b) to analyse model output with respect to future changes in the occurrence of extremes. Statistical analyses will determine changes in (i) the return periods of ex- tremes, (ii) the joint probability of extremes (combinations of damaging events such as windstorm followed by heavy rain), (iii) the sequential behaviour of extremes (whether events are well-separated or clustered) and (iv) the spatial patterns of extreme event occurrence across Europe. The range of uncertainty in model predictions will be ex- plored by analysing changes in model experiments with different spatial resolutions and forcing scenarios. c) to determine the impacts of the predicted changes in extremes occurrence on selected activity sectors: agriculture (Mediterranean drought), commer- cial forestry and natural forest ecosystems (windstorm and flood in northern Europe, fire in the Mediterranean), energy use (temperature extremes), tourism (heat stress and Mediterranean beach holidays, changes in the snow pack and winter sports ) and civil protection/insurance (windstorm and flood

  4. Projected changes to high temperature events for Canada based on a regional climate model ensemble

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jeong, Dae Il; Sushama, Laxmi; Diro, Gulilat Tefera; Khaliq, M. Naveed; Beltrami, Hugo; Caya, Daniel

    2016-05-01

    Extreme hot spells can have significant impacts on human society and ecosystems, and therefore it is important to assess how these extreme events will evolve in a changing climate. In this study, the impact of climate change on hot days, hot spells, and heat waves, over 10 climatic regions covering Canada, based on 11 regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program for the June to August summer period is presented. These simulations were produced with six RCMs driven by four Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCM), for the A2 emission scenario, for the current 1970-1999 and future 2040-2069 periods. Two types of hot days, namely HD-1 and HD-2, defined respectively as days with only daily maximum temperature (Tmax) and both Tmax and daily minimum temperature (Tmin) exceeding their respective thresholds (i.e., period-of-record 90th percentile of Tmax and Tmin values), are considered in the study. Analogous to these hot days, two types of hot spells, namely HS-1 and HS-2, are identified as spells of consecutive HD-1 and HD-2 type hot days. In the study, heat waves are defined as periods of three or more consecutive days, with Tmax above 32 °C threshold. Results suggest future increases in the number of both types of hot days and hot spell events for the 10 climatic regions considered. However, the projected changes show high spatial variability and are highly dependent on the RCM and driving AOGCM combination. Extreme hot spell events such as HS-2 type hot spells of longer duration are expected to experience relatively larger increases compared to hot spells of moderate duration, implying considerable heat related environmental and health risks. Regionally, the Great Lakes, West Coast, Northern Plains, and Maritimes regions are found to be more affected due to increases in the frequency and severity of hot spells and/or heat wave characteristics, requiring more in depth studies for these regions

  5. Assessment of extreme precipitation events over Amazon simulated by global climate models from HIGEM family

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Custodio, M. D. S.; Ambrizzi, T.; Da Rocha, R.

    2015-12-01

    The increased horizontal resolution of climate models aims to improve the simulations accuracy and to understand the non-linear processes during interactions between different spatial scales within the climate system. Up to this moment, these interactions did not have a good representation on low horizontal resolution GCMs. The variations of extreme climatic events had been described and analyzed in the scientific literature. In a scenario of global warming it is necessary understanding and explaining extreme events and to know if global models may represent these events. The purpose of this study was to understand the impact of the horizontal resolution in high resolution coupled and atmospheric global models of HiGEM project in simulating atmospheric patterns and processes of interaction between spatial scales. Moreover, evaluate the performance of coupled and uncoupled versions of the High-Resolution Global Environmental Model in capturing the signal of interannual and intraseasonal variability of precipitation over Amazon region. The results indicated that the grid refinement and ocean-atmosphere coupling contributes to a better representation of seasonal patterns, both precipitation and temperature, on the Amazon region. Besides, the climatic models analyzed represent better than other models (regional and global) the climatic characteristics of this region. This indicates a breakthrough in the development of high resolution climate models. Both coupled and uncoupled models capture the observed signal of the ENSO and MJO oscillations, although with reversed phase in some cases. The interannual variability analysis showed that coupled simulations intensify the impact of the ENSO in the Amazon. In the intraseasonal scale, although the simulations intensify this signal, the coupled models present larger similarities with observations than the atmospheric models for the extremes of precipitation. The simulation of ENSO in GCMs can be attributed to their high

  6. Weather and Climatic Drivers of Extreme Flooding Events over the Midwest of the United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robertson, A. W.; Lall, U.; Kushnir, Y.; Nakamura, J.

    2012-12-01

    There is an urgent need to better understand how partly predictable modes of climate variability impact the probability of flood events in space and time, across multiple time scales, from weekly to seasonal, interannual and beyond. Climate undergoes natural fluctuations through persistent and oscillatory regimes at intraseasonal (e.g., the 30--60 day Madden Julian Oscillation, MJO), interannual (e.g., the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, ENSO) timescales, as well as decadal and longer (e.g., the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, PDO), and as a function of anthropogenic changes of the atmosphere and land surface. This multi-timescale climatic evolution modulates the ``odds'' for local precipitation and soil moisture events, and hence for floods. An outstanding scientific challenge is to develop predictive probabilistic climate information of flood likelihood across these time scales, and to determine in which regions/basins or time-windows of opportunity such information may be of potential practical value. Using the Midwest of the United States as a case study, we present an analysis of daily circulation regimes derived from reanalysis wind data using a K-means cluster analysis for the March--May season, from which we infer relationships between flooding events and circulation regimes, as well as relationships between these regimes and climate variations throughout the 20th century on interdecadal, interannual, as well as intraseasonal timescales. The results of this work illustrate how typical and recurrent synoptic daily circulation patterns that drive enhanced southerly fluxes of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico are preferentially associated with extreme floods over the U.S. Midwest during the spring season, and how these same geopotential height patterns tend to occur more frequently during the La Niña phase of ENSO and certain phases of the MJO. The seasonality of flood occurrence as a function of latitude and longitude within the Midwest is tied to the seasonality

  7. Preface: Monitoring and modelling to guide coastal adaptation to extreme storm events in a changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brown, J. M.; Ciavola, P.; Masselink, G.; McCall, R.; Plater, A. J.

    2016-02-01

    Storms across the globe and their associated consequences in coastal zones (flooding and erosion), combined with the long-term geomorphic evolution of our coastlines, are a threat to life and assets, both socioeconomic and environmental. In a changing climate, with a rising global sea level, potentially changing patterns in storm tracks and storminess, and rising population density and pressures on the coastal zone, the future risk of coastal storm impacts is likely to increase. Coastal managers and policy makers therefore need to make effective and timely decisions on the use of resources for the immediate and longer Research focused on "monitoring and modelling to guide coastal adaptation to extreme storm events in a changing climate" is becoming more common; its goal is to provide science-based decision support for effective adaptation to the consequences of storm impacts, both now and under future climate scenarios at the coast. The growing transfer of information between the science community and end-users is enabling leading research to have a greater impact on the socioeconomic resilience of coastal communities. This special issue covers recent research activities relating to coastal hazard mapping in response to extreme events, economic impacts of long-term change, coastal processes influencing management decisions and the development of online decision support tools.

  8. Quantifying the US Crop Yield in Response to Extreme Climatic Events from 1948 to 2013

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jin, Z.; Zhuang, Q.

    2014-12-01

    The increasingly frequent and severe extreme climatic events (ECEs) under climate changes will negatively affect crop productivity and threat the global food security. Reliable forecast of crop yields response to those ECEs is a prerequisite for developing strategies on agricultural risk management. However, the progress of quantifying such responses with ecosystem models has been slow. In this study, we first review existing algorithms of yields response to ECEs among major crops (i.e., Corn, Wheat and Soybean) for the United States from a set of process-based crop models. These algorithms are aggregated into four categories of ECEs: drought, heavy precipitation, extreme heat, and frost. Species-specific ECEs thresholds as tipping point of crop yield response curve are examined. Four constraint scalar functions derived for each category of ECEs are then added to an agricultural ecosystem model, CLM-AG, respectively. The revised model is driven by NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 1948 to 2013 to estimate the US major crop yields, and then evaluated with county-level yield statistics from the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). We also include MODIS NPP product as a reference for the period 2001-2013. Our study will help to identify gaps in capturing yield response to ECEs with contemporary crop models, and provide a guide on developing the new generation of crop models to account for the effects of more future extreme climate events.

  9. Late Pleistocene Rapid Climate Change Events Measured in Stalagmites From a Semi-Arid Cave in Iran Show Pan-Eurasian Climate Signal Matching NGRIP

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mehterian, S.; Pourmand, A.; Sharifi, A.; Murphy, L.; Lahijani, H. A. K.; Naderi, M.; Swart, P. K.

    2015-12-01

    Although new records of Pleistocene climate variability have begun to emerge from speleothems in Western and Eastern Asia, much remains unknown about climate variability on centennial to millennial timescales during the last glacial and interglacial periods across the interior of West Asia. The regional climate of West Asia is governed by interactions between the Northern Hemisphere Westerly Jet, the Siberian Anticyclone and the Indian Ocean Summer Monsoon, making this region highly sensitive to abrupt climate variability. Here we present the first high-resolution oxygen isotope record of two stalagmites from a cave in the semi-arid region of NW Iran. The records from Qaleh Kord Cave (QKC, 35°47'50"N, 48°51'25"E) span between 73 kya to 127 kya and cover marine isotope stages MIS4 and MIS5. The absolute chronology of both stalagmites was established using a novel high-precision U-Th geochronometry technique with multi-collection ICP-MS. The δ18O composition of QKC stalagmites closely agree with changes in δ18O composition of the NGRIP ice core from Greenland, indicating a close atmospheric teleconnection between the climate of the North Atlantic and the interior of West Asia during this period. Because the chronology of NGRIP beyond 60 kya is calculated via numerical flow models and not directly measured, data from our stalagmites provide absolute age tie points to improve the accuracy of the deepest portion of the ice record. Furthermore, agreement between our records and those from the Soreq (Israel) and Sanbao (China) caves in West and East Asia point to a pan-Eurasian climate signal. In order to investigate the mechanisms that drive changes in climate in Western Asia on millennial timescales and examine the role of orbital characteristics and changes in insolation on atmospheric circulation and precipitation during MIS5, we present results from fully-coupled general circulation simulation CESM1 at three time slices of 80, 95, and 115 kya.

  10. Changes in Large Spatiotemporal Climatic Extreme Events Beyond the Mean Warming Signal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sippel, S.; Mahecha, M. D.; Otto, F. E. L.

    2014-12-01

    Weather and climate extremes impose substantial impacts on human societies and ecosystems. In particular, events that are large in space (areal extent), time (duration) or both are likely to be associated with highly significant consequences. Hence, a better detection, characterization and understanding of such anomalous events is crucial. There is widespread consensus on a global and continental-scale warming trend, which leads to increases in the number, magnitude and frequency of temperature extremes (Hansen et al., 2012). It is less clear, however, if this warming also coincides with a broadening of temperature distributions (Huntingford et al., 2013). Moreover, the question whether other climate variables, such as large-scale precipitation deficits, likewise change, remains largely unanswered (Sheffield et al., 2012; Seneviratne 2012). In this study, we address this issue by investigating the characteristics of large extremes, using an algorithm that detects the n largest spatiotemporally connected climate extremes for any time period. The deployed algorithm detects, depending on the chosen time step and variable, major heat waves, cold spells or droughts. We find a robust increase in the magnitude of large hot temperature extremes on a global and European scale in observations and reanalysis products, whereas the duration and affected area of those extremes does not show any pronounced changes. These results reveal that there is a detectable signal in temperature distributions beyond the mean warming trend, which might imply a structural change in the making of large extreme events. Furthermore, we use the CMIP5 ensemble of models and an ensemble of 100+ members of a regional climate model for Europe (HadRM3P within the weather@home framework[1]) in order to conduct a global and continental-scale analysis of large extreme events in temperature and precipitation. The employment of those model ensembles allows to sample more reliably the tails of the

  11. A climate-based multivariate extreme emulator of met-ocean-hydrological events for coastal flooding

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Camus, Paula; Rueda, Ana; Mendez, Fernando J.; Tomas, Antonio; Del Jesus, Manuel; Losada, Iñigo J.

    2015-04-01

    Atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) are useful to analyze large-scale climate variability (long-term historical periods, future climate projections). However, applications such as coastal flood modeling require climate information at finer scale. Besides, flooding events depend on multiple climate conditions: waves, surge levels from the open-ocean and river discharge caused by precipitation. Therefore, a multivariate statistical downscaling approach is adopted to reproduce relationships between variables and due to its low computational cost. The proposed method can be considered as a hybrid approach which combines a probabilistic weather type downscaling model with a stochastic weather generator component. Predictand distributions are reproduced modeling the relationship with AOGCM predictors based on a physical division in weather types (Camus et al., 2012). The multivariate dependence structure of the predictand (extreme events) is introduced linking the independent marginal distributions of the variables by a probabilistic copula regression (Ben Ayala et al., 2014). This hybrid approach is applied for the downscaling of AOGCM data to daily precipitation and maximum significant wave height and storm-surge in different locations along the Spanish coast. Reanalysis data is used to assess the proposed method. A commonly predictor for the three variables involved is classified using a regression-guided clustering algorithm. The most appropriate statistical model (general extreme value distribution, pareto distribution) for daily conditions is fitted. Stochastic simulation of the present climate is performed obtaining the set of hydraulic boundary conditions needed for high resolution coastal flood modeling. References: Camus, P., Menéndez, M., Méndez, F.J., Izaguirre, C., Espejo, A., Cánovas, V., Pérez, J., Rueda, A., Losada, I.J., Medina, R. (2014b). A weather-type statistical downscaling framework for ocean wave climate. Journal of

  12. Generating extreme weather event sets from very large ensembles of regional climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Massey, Neil; Guillod, Benoit; Otto, Friederike; Allen, Myles; Jones, Richard; Hall, Jim

    2015-04-01

    Generating extreme weather event sets from very large ensembles of regional climate models Neil Massey, Benoit P. Guillod, Friederike E. L. Otto, Myles R. Allen, Richard Jones, Jim W. Hall Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK Extreme events can have large impacts on societies and are therefore being increasingly studied. In particular, climate change is expected to impact the frequency and intensity of these events. However, a major limitation when investigating extreme weather events is that, by definition, only few events are present in observations. A way to overcome this issue it to use large ensembles of model simulations. Using the volunteer distributed computing (VDC) infrastructure of weather@home [1], we run a very large number (10'000s) of RCM simulations over the European domain at a resolution of 25km, with an improved land-surface scheme, nested within a free-running GCM. Using VDC allows many thousands of climate model runs to be computed. Using observations for the GCM boundary forcings we can run historical "hindcast" simulations over the past 100 to 150 years. This allows us, due to the chaotic variability of the atmosphere, to ascertain how likely an extreme event was, given the boundary forcings, and to derive synthetic event sets. The events in these sets did not actually occur in the observed record but could have occurred given the boundary forcings, with an associated probability. The event sets contain time-series of fields of meteorological variables that allow impact modellers to assess the loss the event would incur. Projections of events into the future are achieved by modelling projections of the sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice boundary forcings, by combining the variability of the SST in the observed record with a range of warming signals derived from the varying responses of SSTs in the CMIP5 ensemble to elevated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in three RCP scenarios. Simulating the future with a

  13. The age and origin of the "Younger Dryas climate event" in Greenland ice cores

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fairbanks, R. G.; Bard, E.

    1990-12-01

    230Th/234U and 14C dating of Barbados corals has extended the calibration of 14C years B.P. to calendar years B.P. beyond the 9200 year tree ring series (Bard et al., 1990). This now permits the conversion of 14C chronozones, which delimit major climate shifts in western Europe, to calendar years. The Younger Dryas chronozone, defined as 11,000 to 10,000 14C years B.P., corresponds to 13,000 to 11,700 calendar years B.P. This calibration affects the interpretation of an intensely studied example of the "Younger Dryas climate event," the δ18O anomaly between 1785 and 1793 m in Dye 3 ice core. The end of the δ18O anomaly in Dye 3 ice core has been dated by measurements of 14C in air bubbles (Andree et al., 1984, 1986) and by annual layer counting (Hammer et al., 1986). The older 14C dates fall out of the range of the tree ring calibration series but can now be calibrated to calendar years using the Barbados 230Th/234U calibration. The 14Ccorrected age for the end of the δ18O event is 10,300 ± 400 calendar years B.P. compared to the annual layer counting age of 10,720 ± 150 years B.P. Thus, the "Younger Dryas" event in the Dye 3 ice core ends in the Preboreal chronozone (11,700 to 10,000 calendar years B.P.) and is not correlative with the end of the Younger Dryas event identified in pollen records marking European vegetation changes. The end of the Dye 3 δ18O event is, however, correlative with the end of meltwater pulse IB (Fairbanks, 1989), marking a period of intense deglaciation with meltwater discharge rates exceeding 13,000 km³/yr.

  14. Estimation of the impact of climate change-induced extreme precipitation events on floods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hlavčová, Kamila; Lapin, Milan; Valent, Peter; Szolgay, Ján; Kohnová, Silvia; Rončák, Peter

    2015-09-01

    In order to estimate possible changes in the flood regime in the mountainous regions of Slovakia, a simple physically-based concept for climate change-induced changes in extreme 5-day precipitation totals is proposed in the paper. It utilizes regionally downscaled scenarios of the long-term monthly means of the air temperature, specific air humidity and precipitation projected for Central Slovakia by two regional (RCM) and two global circulation models (GCM). A simplified physically-based model for the calculation of short-term precipitation totals over the course of changing air temperatures, which is used to drive a conceptual rainfall-runoff model, was proposed. In the paper a case study of this approach in the upper Hron river basin in Central Slovakia is presented. From the 1981-2010 period, 20 events of the basin's most extreme average of 5-day precipitation totals were selected. Only events with continual precipitation during 5 days were considered. These 5-day precipitation totals were modified according to the RCM and GCM-based scenarios for the future time horizons of 2025, 2050 and 2075. For modelling runoff under changed 5-day precipitation totals, a conceptual rainfall-runoff model developed at the Slovak University of Technology was used. Changes in extreme mean daily discharges due to climate change were compared with the original flood events and discussed.

  15. Discrete Climatic Events on Timescales of Decades to Centuries: Clues from Polar Landforms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Byrne, S.; Ingersoll, A. P.

    2002-12-01

    Recent observations indicate fast (meters per year) evolution of features, named Swiss-cheese for their morphologic appearance, on the surface of the southern residual frost cap [Malin et al., Science, 2001]. The onset of growth of these features may be responding in a sensitive way to changes in Martian climatic conditions on the timescales of decades to centuries. We have developed a model to examine the growth and development of the Swiss-cheese depressions. Swiss-cheese features were first identified by Thomas et al. [Science, 2000] using Mars Orbiter Camera imagery. They have flat floors and steep sided walls. Their lateral sizes are of the order of a few hundred meters. They are quite shallow with shadow and MOLA measurements indicating a depth of about 8 meters. Although the depressions are fairly circular the smaller ones do display a slight but consistent asymmetry in the form of a small cusp which points poleward indicating that the origin of these features is connected with insolation. As the seasonal frost disappears their walls appear to darken considerably relative to the surrounding terrain. The flat interior of the depression however does not appear to change in this way. There is a clear size division between smaller and larger depressions. Our modeling indicates that the growth timescales of the small-size population are on the order of a few Martian decades to centuries. This populations has a narrow size distribution with most of the depressions in any one area being roughly the same size. The similar size of adjacent depressions argues for some discrete climatic event which triggered this form of erosion of the cap. Larger depressions in other parts of the cap display an interior moat which indicates their walls have begun to be eroded outward after a period of inactivity or perhaps deposition. The width of these moats along with the observed expansion rates of the depressions [Malin et al., Science, 2001] indicates that these larger

  16. Mountain Rivers and Climate Change: Analysis of hazardous events in torrents of small alpine watersheds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lutzmann, Silke; Sass, Oliver

    2016-04-01

    Torrential processes like flooding, heavy bedload transport or debris flows in steep mountain channels emerge during intense, highly localized rainfall events. They pose a serious risk on the densely populated Alpine region. Hydrogeomorphic hazards are profoundly nonlinear, threshold mediated phenomena frequently causing costly damage to infrastructure and people. Thus, in the context of climate change, there is an ever rising interest in whether sediment cascades of small alpine catchments react to changing precipitation patterns and how the climate signal is propagated through the fluvial system. We intend to answer the following research questions: (i) What are critical meteorological characteristics triggering torrential events in the Eastern Alps of Austria? (ii) The effect of external triggers is strongly mediated by the internal disposition of catchments to respond. Which factors control the internal susceptibility? (iii) Do torrential processes show an increase in magnitude and frequency or a shift in seasonality in the recent past? (iv) Which future changes can be expected under different climate scenarios? Quantifications of bedload transport in small alpine catchments are rare and often associated with high uncertainties. Detailed knowledge though exists for the Schöttlbach catchment, a 71 km2 study area in Styria in the Eastern Alps. The torrent is monitored since a heavy precipitation event resulted in a disastrous flood in July 2011. Sediment mobilisation from slopes as well as within-channel storage and fluxes are regularly measured by photogrammetric methods and sediment impact sensors (SIS). The associated hydro-meteorological conditions are known from a dense station network. Changing states of connectivity can thus be related to precipitation and internal dynamics (sediment availability, cut-and-fill cycles). The site-specific insights are then conceptualized for application to a broader scale. Therefore, a Styria wide database of torrential

  17. Diagnostic analysis and spectral energetics of a blocking event in the GLAS climate model simulation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chen, T.-C.; Shukla, J.

    1983-01-01

    A synoptic and spectral analysis of a blocking event is presented, with attention given to the temporal evolution, maintenance, and decay of the block. The GLAS numerical climate model was used to generate a blocking event by the introduction of SST anomalies. Wavenumbers 2 and 3 became stationary around their climatological locations, and their constructive interference produced persistent blocking ridges over the west coast of North America and the other over western Europe. Time variations of the kinetic and potential energies and energy conversions during the blocking were performed. Spectrally filtered Hovmoller diagrams were developed for the winter of 1976-77, and showed that long waves were stationary over most of the interval, which featured severe weather conditions.

  18. The Response of Different Audiences to Place-based Communication about the Role of Climate Change in Extreme Weather Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Halperin, A.; Walton, P.

    2015-12-01

    As the science of extreme event attribution grows, there is an increasing need to understand how the public responds to this type of climate change communication. Extreme event attribution has the unprecedented potential to locate the effects of climate change in the here and now, but there is little information about how different facets of the public might respond to these local framings of climate change. Drawing on theories of place attachment and psychological distance, this paper explores how people with different beliefs and values shift their willingness to mitigate and adapt to climate change in response to local or global communication of climate change impacts. Results will be presented from a recent survey of over 600 Californians who were each presented with one of three experimental conditions: 1) a local framing of the role of climate change in the California drought 2) a global framing of climate change and droughts worldwide, or 3) a control condition of no text. Participants were categorized into groups based on their prior beliefs about climate change according to the Six Americas classification scheme (Leiserowitz et al., 2011). The results from the survey in conjunction with qualitative results from follow-up interviews shed insight into the importance of place in communicating climate change for people in each of the Six Americas. Additional results examine the role of gender and political affiliation in mediating responses to climate change communication. Despite research that advocates unequivocally for local framing of climate change, this study offers a more nuanced perspective of under which circumstances extreme event attribution might be an effective tool for changing behaviors. These results could be useful for scientists who wish to gain a better understanding of how their event attribution research is perceived or for educators who want to target their message to audiences where it could have the most impact.

  19. Drivers and Dynamics of Ecological Responses to Abrupt Environmental Change on the Early Miocene Oregon Shelf

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Belanger, C. L.

    2012-12-01

    We know that the biosphere responds to abrupt climate change, but know less about the dynamics of those changes and their proximal drivers. Studies of well-preserved fossil time-series spanning past climate events that utilize multiple environmental proxies and examine multiple taxonomic groups can provide critical insight into (a) the specific environmental factors to which the biota respond, (b) the rate and tempo of those responses, and (c) whether taxonomic groups respond similarly or differently to the same stresses. I examine the drivers and dynamics of ecological changes in continental shelf benthic foraminifera and molluscs from the Early Miocene Newport Member of the Astoria Formation in Oregon (20.3-16.3 mya), which spans a time of global warming leading into the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum. Stable isotope (δ18O) data from three species of benthic foraminifera from the Astoria sediments indicate that the region abruptly warmed by 2-4°C approximately 19 mya. In addition, δ13C values from epifaunal and infaunal foraminifera indicate an increase in productivity and organic carbon flux over time. Further, an increase in δ15N from bulk sediment and an increase in sedimentary laminations suggest oxygen levels declined. Multivariate analyses demonstrate a strong correlation between foraminiferal community metrics and δ15N suggesting that the foraminiferal community is tracking oxygenation levels while correlations to productivity changes appear indirect. Molluscan community metrics also have an approximately linear relationship to δ15N. Temperature itself had little direct influence on community composition. Changes in community composition and structure of both the foraminifera and the molluscs are abrupt relative to the duration of community states, but each group responds differently to the climate change. The foraminiferal community increases in the number of species and the evenness of species abundances while the molluscan community decreases in

  20. Neogene mammalian faunal change in southern Asia: Correlations with climatic, tectonic, and eustatic events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barry, John C.; Johnson, Noye M.; Mahmood Raza, S.; Jacobs, Louis L.

    1985-09-01

    The fluvial Neogene Siwalik formations of northern Pakistan span long time intervals with only minor hiatuses and, being highly fossiliferous, are uniquely suited for studies of change in mammalian faunas. Magnetostratigraphic correlations of a critical stratigraphic section give dates for 45 middle and late Miocene biostratigraphic events. These mark either first appearances or extinctions in the mammal fauna and show that in the Siwaliks there were major fauna turnovers at between 20 and 16 Ma and at 9.5 and 7.4 Ma. Two minor faunal events are dated at 13.2 and about 12 Ma. Many species making their first appearance were immigrants from Europe or Africa and indicate when connections to those regions existed. Immigration and extinction were the dominant modes of faunal change; in situ evolution was much less important. The Siwalik biostratigraphic record correlates closely to climatic, oceanographic, and tectonic events, which probably controlled immigration into southern Asia. Abiotic events were therefore important factors affecting evolution of the mammal communities.

  1. Regional climate modeling of heat stress, frost, and water stress events in the agricultural region of Southwest Western Australia under the current climate and future climate scenarios.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kala, Jatin; Lyons, Tom J.; Abbs, Deborah J.; Foster, Ian J.

    2010-05-01

    Heat stress, frost, and water stress events have significant impacts on grain quality and production within the agricultural region (wheat-belt) of Southwest Western Australia (SWWA) (Cramb, 2000) and understanding how the frequency and intensity of these events will change in the future is crucial for management purposes. Hence, the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (Pielke et al, 1992) (RAMS Version 6.0) is used to simulate the past 10 years of the climate of SWWA at a 20 km grid resolution by down-scaling the 6-hourly 1.0 by 1.0 degree National Center for Environmental Prediction Final Analyses from December 1999 to Present. Daily minimum and maximum temperatures, as well as daily rainfall are validated against observations. Simulations of future climate are carried out by down-scaling the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) Mark 3.5 General Circulation Model (Gordon et al, 2002) for 10 years (2046-2055) under the SRES A2 scenario using the Cubic Conformal Atmospheric Model (CCAM) (McGregor and Dix, 2008). The 6-hourly CCAM output is then downscaled to a 20 km resolution using RAMS. Changes in extreme events are discussed within the context of the continued viability of agriculture in SWWA. Cramb, J. (2000) Climate in relation to agriculture in south-western Australia. In: The Wheat Book (Eds W. K. Anderson and J. R. Garlinge). Bulletin 4443. Department of Agriculture, Western Australia. Gordon, H. B., Rotstayn, L. D., McGregor, J. L., Dix, M. R., Kowalczyk, E. A., O'Farrell, S. P., Waterman, L. J., Hirst, A. C., Wilson, S. G., Collier, M. A., Watterson, I. G., and Elliott, T. I. (2002). The CSIRO Mk3 Climate System Model [Electronic publication]. Aspendale: CSIRO Atmospheric Research. (CSIRO Atmospheric Research technical paper; no. 60). 130 p McGregor, J. L., and Dix, M. R., (2008) An updated description of the conformal-cubic atmospheric model. High Resolution Simulation of the Atmosphere and Ocean, Hamilton, K. and Ohfuchi

  2. Simulation of Greenhouse Climate Monitoring and Control with Wireless Sensor Network and Event-Based Control

    PubMed Central

    Pawlowski, Andrzej; Guzman, Jose Luis; Rodríguez, Francisco; Berenguel, Manuel; Sánchez, José; Dormido, Sebastián

    2009-01-01

    Monitoring and control of the greenhouse environment play a decisive role in greenhouse production processes. Assurance of optimal climate conditions has a direct influence on crop growth performance, but it usually increases the required equipment cost. Traditionally, greenhouse installations have required a great effort to connect and distribute all the sensors and data acquisition systems. These installations need many data and power wires to be distributed along the greenhouses, making the system complex and expensive. For this reason, and others such as unavailability of distributed actuators, only individual sensors are usually located in a fixed point that is selected as representative of the overall greenhouse dynamics. On the other hand, the actuation system in greenhouses is usually composed by mechanical devices controlled by relays, being desirable to reduce the number of commutations of the control signals from security and economical point of views. Therefore, and in order to face these drawbacks, this paper describes how the greenhouse climate control can be represented as an event-based system in combination with wireless sensor networks, where low-frequency dynamics variables have to be controlled and control actions are mainly calculated against events produced by external disturbances. The proposed control system allows saving costs related with wear minimization and prolonging the actuator life, but keeping promising performance results. Analysis and conclusions are given by means of simulation results. PMID:22389597

  3. Effects of climate events driven hydrodynamics on dissolved oxygen in a subtropical deep reservoir in Taiwan.

    PubMed

    Fan, Cheng-Wei; Kao, Shuh-Ji

    2008-04-15

    The seasonal concentrations of dissolved oxygen in a subtropical deep reservoir were studied over a period of one year. The study site was the Feitsui Reservoir in Taiwan. It is a dam-constructed reservoir with a surface area of 10.24 km(2) and a mean depth of 39.6 m, with a maximum depth of 113.5 m near the dam. It was found that certain weather and climate events, such as typhoons in summer and autumn, as well as cold fronts in winter, can deliver oxygen-rich water, and consequently have strong impacts on the dissolved oxygen level. The typhoon turbidity currents and winter density currents played important roles in supplying oxygen to the middle and bottom water, respectively. The whole process can be understood by the hydrodynamics driven by weather and climate events. This work provides the primary results of dissolved oxygen in a subtropical deep reservoir, and the knowledge is useful in understanding water quality in subtropical regions. PMID:18243280

  4. Analysis of abrupt transitions in ecological systems

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The occurrence and causes of abrupt transitions, thresholds, or regime shifts between ecosystem states are of great concern and the likelihood of such transitions is increasing for many ecological systems. General understanding of abrupt transitions has been advanced by theory, but hindered by the l...

  5. An Assessment of Direct and Indirect Economic Losses of Climatic Extreme Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Otto, C.; Willner, S. N.; Wenz, L.; Levermann, A.

    2015-12-01

    Risk of extreme weather events like storms, heat extremes, and floods has already risen due to anthropogenic climate change and is likely to increase further under future global warming. Additionally, the structure of the global economy has changed importantly in the last decades. In the process of globalization, local economies have become more and more interwoven forming a complex network. Together with a trend towards lean production, this has resulted in a strong dependency of local manufacturers on global supply and value added chains, which may render the economic network more vulnerable to climatic extremes; outages of local manufacturers trigger indirect losses, which spread along supply chains and can even outstrip direct losses. Accordingly, in a comprehensive climate risk assessment these inter-linkages should be considered. Here, we present acclimate, an agent based dynamic damage propagation model. Its agents are production and consumption sites, which are interlinked by economic flows accounting for the complexity as well as the heterogeneity of the global supply network. Assessing the economic response on the timescale of the adverse event, the model permits to study temporal and spatial evolution of indirect production losses during the disaster and in the subsequent recovery phase of the economy. In this study, we focus on the dynamic economic resilience defined here as the ratio of direct to total losses. This implies that the resilience of the system under consideration is low if the high indirect losses are high. We find and assess a nonlinear dependence of the resilience on the disaster size. Further, we analyze the influence of the network structure upon resilience and discuss the potential of warehousing as an adaptation option.

  6. Mitigation of Disasters Due to Severe Climate Events: from Policy to Practice,the West African Coastal Region Experience

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ediang, Okuku

    2016-07-01

    The distributive pattern of disaster due to severe climate events over the coast of West Africa especially Nigeria was examined using yearly mean disaster due to severe climatic events for the period of 30 years (1981-2010) from the marine stations in the coastal region of Nigeria. Graphical and isohyetal analyses were used to look into the patter of severe weather events over the area considered and to see if the severe weather events is increasing or not in the coast of West Africa especially the Nigerian coast and how to mitigate ,were policy relating to severe weather events are discussed. The paper conclude that due to the nature of coast of West Africa and Nigeria in particular, it enjoys longer severe weather events season than dry during the wet season, it is common to observe periods of enhanced or suppressed convective activity to persist over the wide areas for somedays. This paper also contributes to the wealth of knowledge already existing on Indigenous people play major roles in preserving the ecosystem especially during severe weather events . This has resulted in the recent calls for the integration of indigenous knowledge systems into global knowledge system strategies. Until now, integrating local knowledge systems into severe weather events and climate change concerns is not a completely new idea. A comprehensive review of literature using electronic and non-electronic databases formed the methodology. The paper conclude also by drawing the attention that by targeting Promoting indigenous people's participation in severe weather events and climate change issues is an important initiative towards adaptation and sustainable development in Africa and around the world. It is increasingly realized that the global knowledge system has dominated research, policies and programmes that address current severe weather events and climate change's challenges,mitigation and adaptation strategies.

  7. Rain-on-snow events, floods and climate change in the Alps: Events may increase with warming up to 4°C and decrease thereafter.

    PubMed

    Beniston, Martin; Stoffel, Markus

    2016-11-15

    This paper focuses on the influence of mountain rain-on-snow (ROS) events that can on occasion trigger major floods in alpine catchments. In order to assess the evolution of these events in a recent past, and the potential changes that could be experienced in a changing climate over coming decades, we have focused on a small catchment in north-eastern Switzerland, the Sitter, well-endowed with both climate and hydrological data. Observations show that there has been an increase in the number of rain-on-snow events since the early 1960s related to the rise in atmospheric temperatures. Results from a simple temperature-based snow model show that the number of ROS events could increase by close to 50% with temperatures 2-4°C warmer than today, before declining when temperatures go beyond 4°C. The likelihood of more ROS events suggests that the risks of flooding in a future climate may indeed get worse before they improve. PMID:27476005

  8. Assessment of extreme precipitation events over Amazon simulated by global climate models from HIGEM family.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Custodio, Maria; Ambrizzi, Tercio; da Rocha, Rosmeri

    2015-04-01

    The variations of extreme climatic events had been described and analyzed in the scientific literature. Both extremes of precipitation and temperature until now are not well represented by regional or global climate models. Additionally, it is important to characterize possible changes in extreme events. The only certainty is that the extreme events such as heat waves, floods, droughts, or storms may imply in severe societal and economical impacts, since they cause significant damage to agriculture, ecology and infrastructure, injury, and loss of life. Therefore, in a scenario of global warming it is necessary understanding and explaining extreme events and to know if global models may represent these events. The South America (SA) climate is characterized by different precipitation regimes and its variability has large influences of the large scale phenomena in the interanual (El Niño South Oscilation - ENSO) and intraseasonal (Maden Julian Oscilation - MJO) timescales. Normally, the AGCM and CGM use low horizontal resolution and present difficult in the representation of these low frequency variability phenomena. The goal of this work is to evaluate the performance of coupled and uncoupled versions of the High-Resolution Global Environmental Model, which will be denominated NUGEM (~60 Km), HiGEM (~90 km) and HadGEM (~135 km) and NUGAM (~60 Km), HiGAM (~90 Km) and HadGAM (~135 Km), respectively, in capturing the signal of interannual and intraseasonal variability of precipitation over Amazon. Basically we want discuss the impact of sea surface temperature in the annual cycle of atmospheric variables. The precipitation time-series were filtered on the interanual (period > 365 days) and intraseasonal (30-90 days) timescales using the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT). The occurrence of extreme precipitation events were analyzed in Amazon region. The criterion for selection of extremes was based on the quartiles of rainfall anomalies in the bands of interest. Both

  9. Climate change and forest fires synergistically drive widespread melt events of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

    PubMed

    Keegan, Kaitlin M; Albert, Mary R; McConnell, Joseph R; Baker, Ian

    2014-06-01

    In July 2012, over 97% of the Greenland Ice Sheet experienced surface melt, the first widespread melt during the era of satellite remote sensing. Analysis of six Greenland shallow firn cores from the dry snow region confirms that the most recent prior widespread melt occurred in 1889. A firn core from the center of the ice sheet demonstrated that exceptionally warm temperatures combined with black carbon sediments from Northern Hemisphere forest fires reduced albedo below a critical threshold in the dry snow region, and caused the melting events in both 1889 and 2012. We use these data to project the frequency of widespread melt into the year 2100. Since Arctic temperatures and the frequency of forest fires are both expected to rise with climate change, our results suggest that widespread melt events on the Greenland Ice Sheet may begin to occur almost annually by the end of century. These events are likely to alter the surface mass balance of the ice sheet, leaving the surface susceptible to further melting. PMID:24843158

  10. Influence of Climate Change on Damages to Crops Produced by Hail Events at Spanish Peninsular Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saa Requejo, A.; Tarquis, A. M.; García Moreno, R.; Gascó, G.; Burgaz, F.; Díaz Alvarez, M. C.

    2009-04-01

    Climate, often the most critical factor for the sustainability of agricultural systems, dictates which crops will grow in a region. Specific weather events, such as hail, will affect yield or quality of crops depending on the affected species, the temperatures reached and the timing of phenology. Predicting the occurrence of hailstorms is one of the most complicated tasks in weather forecasting because of the small area of land that is usually affected, and because of the short time hail events last. The importance of the study is related to the insurance of the different crops, since the damages are perceived as increasing during the last years, and consequently the amount of the economical compensations to crop producers. Under these conditions the State Agricultural Insurance Body of the Ministry of Environment and Rural and Marine Affairs were interested to know the extent of the new changing conditions to analyze the viability of the actual system and the potential future changes. The results demonstrate trend variability on damage risk to different crops produced by hail events at the Spanish peninsula. Meanwhile in some provinces show a negative trend in others are positive. However, all of them present several oscillations that questionate these trends. The research evaluated also the average minimum temperatures in summer for 405 weather stations over the peninsular region of Spain since 1981 until 2007, time in which crop insurance data can be verified. This study doesn't confirm the results obtained in France that relate hail damage registered with the average minimum temperatures.

  11. Climate change and forest fires synergistically drive widespread melt events of the Greenland Ice Sheet

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keegan, K. M.; Albert, M. R.; McConnell, J.; Baker, I.

    2014-12-01

    The Greenland ice sheet experiences melting at low elevations near the coastline annually. However, surface melt is rare over the dry snow region in its center. In July 2012, over 97% of the Greenland ice sheet experienced surface melt, the first widespread melt during the era of satellite remote sensing. It had been previously unknown when the ice sheet had experienced melt events of this magnitude, or what caused them. Here we show that the most recent previous widespread melt occurred in 1889, and demonstrate that warm temperatures combined with black carbon sediments from Northern Hemisphere forest fires reduced albedo below a critical threshold, permitting the melt events in both 1889 and 2012. Furthermore, we use these data to project the frequency of widespread melt into the year 2100. Since arctic temperatures and the frequency of forest fires are both expected to rise with climate change, our results suggest that widespread melt events on the ice sheet may begin to occur almost annually by the end of century.

  12. Climate change and forest fires synergistically drive widespread melt events of the Greenland Ice Sheet

    PubMed Central

    Keegan, Kaitlin M.; Albert, Mary R.; McConnell, Joseph R.; Baker, Ian

    2014-01-01

    In July 2012, over 97% of the Greenland Ice Sheet experienced surface melt, the first widespread melt during the era of satellite remote sensing. Analysis of six Greenland shallow firn cores from the dry snow region confirms that the most recent prior widespread melt occurred in 1889. A firn core from the center of the ice sheet demonstrated that exceptionally warm temperatures combined with black carbon sediments from Northern Hemisphere forest fires reduced albedo below a critical threshold in the dry snow region, and caused the melting events in both 1889 and 2012. We use these data to project the frequency of widespread melt into the year 2100. Since Arctic temperatures and the frequency of forest fires are both expected to rise with climate change, our results suggest that widespread melt events on the Greenland Ice Sheet may begin to occur almost annually by the end of century. These events are likely to alter the surface mass balance of the ice sheet, leaving the surface susceptible to further melting. PMID:24843158

  13. CMIP5 Model Assessments of the Ongoing Global Warming Hiatus and Two Extreme 2012 Climate Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knutson, T. R.; Zhang, R.; Wittenberg, A. T.; Zeng, F. J.

    2013-12-01

    Several recent climate phenomena are assessed using a 23-model CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. The pause in global warming since 1998 represents an important ongoing test for climate models. We find that the observed global mean temperature trend (1998-2010) is still within the 5th to 95th percentile of the distribution of trends formed by the CMIP5 ensemble. The CMIP5 ensemble is also used to assess two extreme climate events that occurred in 2012. For Arctic sea ice extent, both the trend over 2000-2012 and the 2012 extreme low are outside the 5th to 95th percentile range of the multi-model CMIP5 ensemble that uses historical forcing. These changes are also far outside the corresponding range of the control runs alone, strongly suggesting a role for anthropogenic forcing in the ice loss. Potential causes of the under-prediction of 2012 Arctic ice loss by the models include: underestimation of natural variability in the Arctic; underestimation of the models' Arctic ice response to forcing; errors in or missing historical forcings; or the extreme ice loss may simply have been an extremely rare event. For the eastern U.S., 2012 produced record temperature anomalies in March-May (MAM), according to the HadCRUT4 gridded data set. Based on the CMIP5 model assessment, we find a significant anthropogenic component to a long-term (multi-decadal to century scale) warming in this region during MAM. According to the ensemble mean of the CMIP5 historical runs, and using a baseline period of 1881-1920, we estimate that about one third of the 2012 warm anomaly was attributable to external forcing (principally anthropogenic). Eastern U.S. MAM warm anomalies exceeding those of 2012 occur about 12 times more often in the CMIP5 historical runs than in the control runs, suggesting that external forcing (principally anthropogenic) has substantially increased the risk of occurrence of such an event.

  14. Propagation of climatic events on ocean stratification, marine biology, and CO2: Case studies over the 1979-1999 period

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Le QuéRé, Corinne; Aumont, Olivier; Monfray, Patrick; Orr, James

    2003-12-01

    We investigate the propagation of climatic events on ocean stratification, marine biology, and CO2 using a large-scale ocean general circulation model coupled to a simple biogeochemical model of plankton dynamics and the carbon cycle. The model was forced with satellite and reanalysis fields during 1979-1999. We focus on three climatic events: (1) the North Atlantic Oscillation, (2) El Niño events, and (3) the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave. Such climatic events caused variability in ocean stratification, approximated by the mixing depth (MD), from ±20 m in the subtropics to ±100 s of meters at high latitudes. In the subtropics, deepening of the MD resupplied nutrient-impoverished surface waters and increased marine biomass by 20-100%. In contrast, at high latitudes, shoaling of the MD lengthened the growing season (i.e., the length of time that light is available for plankton growth) and increased marine biomass by 10-20%. Variability in marine biology reached global peak-to-peak values of ±0.01 mg m-3 for surface chl a, ±3.4 Pg C yr-1 for primary production, and ±0.3 Pg C yr-1 for export production and its contribution to CO2 fluxes. Our model results suggest that changes in ocean stratification driven by short-term climatic events could be used to understand and quantify the feedbacks from marine biology to CO2 and climate.

  15. Public interest in climate change over the past decade and the effects of the ‘climategate’ media event

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderegg, William R. L.; Goldsmith, Gregory R.

    2014-05-01

    Despite overwhelming scientific consensus concerning anthropogenic climate change, many in the non-expert public perceive climate change as debated and contentious. There is concern that two recent high-profile media events—the hacking of the University of East Anglia emails and the Himalayan glacier melt rate presented in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change—may have altered public opinion of climate change. While survey data is valuable for tracking public perception and opinion over time, including in response to climate-related media events, emerging methods that facilitate rapid assessment of spatial and temporal patterns in public interest and opinion could be exceptionally valuable for understanding and responding to these events’ effects. We use a novel, freely-available dataset of worldwide web search term volumes to assess temporal patterns of interest in climate change over the past ten years, with a particular focus on looking at indicators of climate change skepticism around the high-profile media events. We find that both around the world and in the US, the public searches for the issue as ‘global warming,’ rather than ‘climate change,’ and that search volumes have been declining since a 2007 peak. We observe high, but transient spikes of search terms indicating skepticism around the two media events, but find no evidence of effects lasting more than a few months. Our results indicate that while such media events are visible in the short-term, they have little effect on salience of skeptical climate search terms on longer time-scales.

  16. Climate variability of the hydro-meteorological extreme events in Romania

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mares, Constantin; Adler, Mary-Jeanne; Mares, Ileana; Chelcia, Silvia; Branescu, Emilia

    2013-04-01

    The purpose of this study is to analyze climate extremes for monthly and seasonal values of temperatures, precipitation and discharges defined in 27 stations distributed relatively evenly throughout Romania. For the beginning, for each season a drought index was calculated from the difference between standardized temperature and precipitation (STPDI) for a period of 68 years (1931-1998) compared with self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (sc-PDSI). The sc_PDSI values with a resolution of 0.5 degrees longitude by 0.5 degrees latitude were extracted from Climate Research Unit (http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/data/). The analyses of histograms of the two indices for several stations in Romania revealed as values defining extremes depend on the season and location, but generally the values higher than 4 in the absolute value, indicate drastic extreme events, with the only difference that the two indices have reverse signs. A negative value of sc_PDSI < - 4 indicates an extreme drought, while a value < - 4 of STPDI shows an extremely wet event and vice versa. The sc-PDSI is more sensitive to location where is calculated, in comparison with classical PDSI and therefore it can give more accurate differentiation between different areas described by this index. In the next step of our analysis we retained only STPDI for several reasons. First, STPDI is a better predictor for discharges in Romania than sc-PDSI (correlations are closer between STPDI and discharge than between sc_PDSI and discharge). Response to large-scale atmospheric circulation expressed here by North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is better and this index is easier to estimate from the values simulated by climate models (GCMs / RCMs). In addition, spatial climate differences can be outlined just as well as using sc-PDSI values by means of modes 2 and 3 of the EOF decompositions. Climate variability of STPDI was analyzed both for the entire country by the EOF decomposition and separate for each of the 27

  17. Influence of climate variability and urban areas on the flood events in Bari (Apulia, southern Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lonigro, Teresa; Polemio, Maurizio

    2014-05-01

    The Damaging Hydrogeological Events (DHEs) can be defined as the occurrence of one or more simultaneous phenomena, such as droughts, windstorms, heat waves, landslides, floods and secondary floods (i.e. rapid accumulation or pounding of surface water with very low flow velocity), causing damages. They represent a serious problem, especially in DHE-prone areas with growing urbanization, where the infiltration capability is limited by buildings and where the vulnerability is higher than other areas. The paper proposes a methodology, based on both historical and time series approaches, used for describing the influence of climatic variability and urban development on the number of phenomena observed. The historical approach is finalised to collect phenomenon historical data, very important for the comprehension of the evolution of a study area. Phenomenon historical data is useful for expanding the historical period of investigation in order to assess the occurrence trend of DHEs. The historical analysis of DHEs can support decision making and land-use planning, ultimately reducing natural risks. The time series approach includes the collection and the statistical analysis of climatic data (monthly rainfall, wet days, rainfall intensity, and temperature), useful to characterise the climate variations and trends and to roughly assess the effects of these trends on river discharge and on the triggering of landslides. The time series approach is completed by tools to analyse simultaneously all data types. The study of land use variations, with a special emphasis on the urban areas, is important to understand how the modifications occurred in the territory, especially in terms of vulnerability, could influence the occurrence of DHEs. The methodology can be applied simultaneously to floods and landslides and was tested considering the municipality of Bari (southern Italy), particularly affected by flood events. Since the climate trend (decreasing trend of rainfall and

  18. Long-term strategies of climate change adaptation to manage flooding events in urban areas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pouget, Laurent; Russo, Beniamino; Redaño, Angel; Ribalaygua, Jaime

    2010-05-01

    Heavy and sudden rainfalls regularly affect the Mediterranean area, so a great number of people and buildings are exposed to the risk of rain-generated floods. Climate change is expected to modify this risk and, in the case that extreme rainfalls increase in frequencies and intensity, this could result in important damages, particularly in urban areas. This paper presents a project that aims to determine adaptation strategies to future flood risks in urban areas. It has been developed by a panel of water companies (R+i Alliance funding), and includes the evaluation of the climate change impact on the extreme rainfall, the use of innovative modelling tools to accurately forecast the flood risk and, finally, the definition of a pro-active and long-term planning against floods. This methodology has been applied in the city of Barcelona. Current climate models give some projections that are not directly applicable for flood risk studies, either because they do not have an adequate spatial and temporal resolution, or because they do not consider some important local factors, such as orography. These points have been considered within the project, when developing the design storms corresponding to future climatic conditions (e.g. years 2030 or 2050). The methodology uses statistical downscaling techniques based on global climate models predictions, including corrections for extreme events and convective storms, as well as temporal downscaling based on historical observations. The design storms created are used in combination with the predictions of sea level rise and land use evolutions to determine the future risk of flooding in the area of study. Once the boundary conditions are known, an accurate flood hazard assessment is done. It requires a local knowledge of the flow parameters in the whole analyzed domain. In urban catchments, in order to fulfill this requirement, powerful hydrological and hydraulic tools and detailed topographic data represent the unique way for

  19. The analyses of extreme climate events over China based on CMIP5 historical and future simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, S.; Dong, W.; Feng, J.; Chou, J.

    2013-12-01

    The extreme climate events have a serious influence on human society. Based on observations and 12 simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), Climatic extremes and their changes over china in history and future scenarios of three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are analyzed. Because of the background of global warming, in observations, the frost days (FD) and low-temperature threshold days (TN10P) have decreasing trend, and summer days (SU), high-temperature threshold days (TX90P), the heavy precipitation days (R20) and contribution of heavy precipitation days (P95T) show an increasing trend. Most coupled models can basically simulate main characteristics of most extreme indexes. The models reproduce the mean FD and TX90P value best and can give basic trends of the FD, TN10P, SU and TX90P. High correlation coefficients between simulated results and observation are found in FD, SU and P95T. For FD and SU index, most of the models have good ability to capture the spatial differences between the mean state of the 1986-2005 and 1961-1980 periods, but for other indexes, most of models' simulation ability for spatial disparity are not so satisfactory and have to be promoted. Under the high emission scenario of RCP8.5, the century-scale linear changes of Multi-Model Ensembles (MME) for FD, SU, TN10P, TX90P, R20 and P95T are -46.9, 46.0, -27.1, 175.4, 2.9 days and 9.9%, respectively. Due to the complexities of physical process parameterizations and the limitation of forcing data, a large uncertainty still exists in the simulations of climatic extremes. Fig.1 Observed and modeled multi-year average for each index (Dotted line: observation) Table1. Extreme index definition

  20. Simulation of Anomalous Regional Climate Events with a Variable Resolution Stretched Grid GCM

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael S.

    1999-01-01

    The stretched-grid approach provides an efficient down-scaling and consistent interactions between global and regional scales due to using one variable-resolution model for integrations. It is a workable alternative to the widely used nested-grid approach introduced over a decade ago as a pioneering step in regional climate modeling. A variable-resolution General Circulation Model (GCM) employing a stretched grid, with enhanced resolution over the US as the area of interest, is used for simulating two anomalous regional climate events, the US summer drought of 1988 and flood of 1993. The special mode of integration using a stretched-grid GCM and data assimilation system is developed that allows for imitating the nested-grid framework. The mode is useful for inter-comparison purposes and for underlining the differences between these two approaches. The 1988 and 1993 integrations are performed for the two month period starting from mid May. Regional resolutions used in most of the experiments is 60 km. The major goal and the result of the study is obtaining the efficient down-scaling over the area of interest. The monthly mean prognostic regional fields for the stretched-grid integrations are remarkably close to those of the verifying analyses. Simulated precipitation patterns are successfully verified against gauge precipitation observations. The impact of finer 40 km regional resolution is investigated for the 1993 integration and an example of recovering subregional precipitation is presented. The obtained results show that the global variable-resolution stretched-grid approach is a viable candidate for regional and subregional climate studies and applications.

  1. Recent changes in the Arabian Sea ecosystem linked to large-scale climatic events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goes, Joaquim; do Rosario Gomes, Helga; Prabhu Matondkar, Shivprasad; de Rada, Sergio; Chai, Fei; Dwivedi, Rashmin; Thoppil, Prasad; Al-Azri, Adnan; Basu, Subhajit

    2014-05-01

    Between 1994 and 1996, the Arabian Sea became the focus of a multinational effort directed at studying ocean biological and physical processes and their links to the global carbon cycle. The results of this comprehensive, multi-disciplinary effort known as the Joint Global Flux Study (JGOFS) program provided important indications of the role of the reversal of the monsoons and the extremes in wind forcing, in causing the greatest seasonal variability of primary production and vertical flux of carbon observed in any of the world's oceans. Since the end of the JGOFS program, most contemporary shipboard investigations of primary productivity and biogeochemical processes have come mostly from small programmatically focused shipboard cruises that have been regional in scope. On the other hand, most recent large basin-scale studies have relied mainly on coupled physical-biological models and on satellite data. Here we present a synthesis of recent observations from shipboard cruises and satellites, together with modeling studies which highlight the extreme sensitivity of the Arabian Sea ecosystem to climatic events. We posit that the Arabian Sea ecosystem is undergoing rapid change as a result of changes in physical processes tied to climate change.

  2. Heavy precipitation events in a warmer climate: results from CMIP5 models (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scoccimarro, E.; Gualdi, S.

    2013-12-01

    In this work the authors investigate possible changes in the distribution of heavy precipitation events under a warmer climate, using the results of a set of 20 climate models taking part in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 effort (CMIP5). Future changes are evaluated as the difference between the last four decades of the 21st and the 20th Century assuming the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP8.5 scenario. As a measure of the width of the right tail of the precipitation distribution, we use the difference between the 99th and the 90th percentiles. Despite a slight tendency to underestimate the observed heavy precipitation, the considered CMIP5 models well represent the observed patterns in terms of the ensemble average, during both summer and winter seasons for the 1997-2005 period. Future changes in average precipitation are consistent with previous findings based on CMIP3 models. CMIP5 models show a projected increase for the end of the twenty-first century of the width of the right tail of the precipitation distribution, particularly pronounced over India, South East Asia, Indonesia and Central Africa during boreal summer, as well as over South America and southern Africa during boreal winter.

  3. Effects of climate change adaptation scenarios on perceived spatio-temporal characteristics of drought events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vidal, J.-P.; Martin, E.; Kitova, N.; Najac, J.; Soubeyroux, J.-M.

    2012-04-01

    Drought events develop in both space and time and they are therefore best described through summary joint spatio-temporal characteristics, like mean duration, mean affected area and total magnitude. This study addresses the issue of future projections of such characteristics of drought events over France through three main research questions: (1) Are downscaled climate projections able to reproduce spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological and agricultural droughts in France over a present-day period? (2) How such characteristics will evolve over the 21st century under different emissions scenarios? (3) How would perceived drought characteristics evolve under theoretical adaptation scenarios? These questions are addressed using the Isba land surface model, downscaled climate projections from the ARPEGE General Circulation Model under three emissions scenarios, as well as results from a previously performed 50-year multilevel and multiscale drought reanalysis over France (Vidal et al., 2010). Spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological and agricultural drought events are computed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Soil Wetness Index (SSWI), respectively, and for time scales of 3 and 12 months. Results first show that the distributions of joint spatio-temporal characteristics of observed events are well reproduced by the downscaled hydroclimate projections over a present-day period. All spatio-temporal characteristics of drought events are then found to dramatically increase over the 21st century under all considered emissions scenarios, with stronger changes for agricultural droughts. Two theoretical adaptation scenarios are eventually built based on hypotheses of adaptation to evolving climate and hydrological normals. The two scenarios differ by the way the transient adaptation is performed for a given date in the future, with reference to the normals over either the previous 30-year window ("retrospective

  4. The abrupt onset of the modern South Asian Monsoon winds

    PubMed Central

    Betzler, Christian; Eberli, Gregor P.; Kroon, Dick; Wright, James D.; Swart, Peter K.; Nath, Bejugam Nagender; Alvarez-Zarikian, Carlos A.; Alonso-García, Montserrat; Bialik, Or M.; Blättler, Clara L.; Guo, Junhua Adam; Haffen, Sébastien; Horozal, Senay; Inoue, Mayuri; Jovane, Luigi; Lanci, Luca; Laya, Juan Carlos; Mee, Anna Ling Hui; Lüdmann, Thomas; Nakakuni, Masatoshi; Niino, Kaoru; Petruny, Loren M.; Pratiwi, Santi D.; Reijmer, John J. G.; Reolid, Jesús; Slagle, Angela L.; Sloss, Craig R.; Su, Xiang; Yao, Zhengquan; Young, Jeremy R.

    2016-01-01

    The South Asian Monson (SAM) is one of the most intense climatic elements yet its initiation and variations are not well established. Dating the deposits of SAM wind-driven currents in IODP cores from the Maldives yields an age of 12. 9 Ma indicating an abrupt SAM onset, over a short period of 300 kyrs. This coincided with the Indian Ocean Oxygen Minimum Zone expansion as revealed by geochemical tracers and the onset of upwelling reflected by the sediment’s content of particulate organic matter. A weaker ‘proto-monsoon’ existed between 12.9 and 25 Ma, as mirrored by the sedimentary signature of dust influx. Abrupt SAM initiation favors a strong influence of climate in addition to the tectonic control, and we propose that the post Miocene Climate Optimum cooling, together with increased continentalization and establishment of the bipolar ocean circulation, i.e. the beginning of the modern world, shifted the monsoon over a threshold towards the modern system. PMID:27436574

  5. The abrupt onset of the modern South Asian Monsoon winds.

    PubMed

    Betzler, Christian; Eberli, Gregor P; Kroon, Dick; Wright, James D; Swart, Peter K; Nath, Bejugam Nagender; Alvarez-Zarikian, Carlos A; Alonso-García, Montserrat; Bialik, Or M; Blättler, Clara L; Guo, Junhua Adam; Haffen, Sébastien; Horozal, Senay; Inoue, Mayuri; Jovane, Luigi; Lanci, Luca; Laya, Juan Carlos; Mee, Anna Ling Hui; Lüdmann, Thomas; Nakakuni, Masatoshi; Niino, Kaoru; Petruny, Loren M; Pratiwi, Santi D; Reijmer, John J G; Reolid, Jesús; Slagle, Angela L; Sloss, Craig R; Su, Xiang; Yao, Zhengquan; Young, Jeremy R

    2016-01-01

    The South Asian Monson (SAM) is one of the most intense climatic elements yet its initiation and variations are not well established. Dating the deposits of SAM wind-driven currents in IODP cores from the Maldives yields an age of 12. 9 Ma indicating an abrupt SAM onset, over a short period of 300 kyrs. This coincided with the Indian Ocean Oxygen Minimum Zone expansion as revealed by geochemical tracers and the onset of upwelling reflected by the sediment's content of particulate organic matter. A weaker 'proto-monsoon' existed between 12.9 and 25 Ma, as mirrored by the sedimentary signature of dust influx. Abrupt SAM initiation favors a strong influence of climate in addition to the tectonic control, and we propose that the post Miocene Climate Optimum cooling, together with increased continentalization and establishment of the bipolar ocean circulation, i.e. the beginning of the modern world, shifted the monsoon over a threshold towards the modern system. PMID:27436574

  6. The abrupt onset of the modern South Asian Monsoon winds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Betzler, Christian; Eberli, Gregor P.; Kroon, Dick; Wright, James D.; Swart, Peter K.; Nath, Bejugam Nagender; Alvarez-Zarikian, Carlos A.; Alonso-García, Montserrat; Bialik, Or M.; Blättler, Clara L.; Guo, Junhua Adam; Haffen, Sébastien; Horozal, Senay; Inoue, Mayuri; Jovane, Luigi; Lanci, Luca; Laya, Juan Carlos; Mee, Anna Ling Hui; Lüdmann, Thomas; Nakakuni, Masatoshi; Niino, Kaoru; Petruny, Loren M.; Pratiwi, Santi D.; Reijmer, John J. G.; Reolid, Jesús; Slagle, Angela L.; Sloss, Craig R.; Su, Xiang; Yao, Zhengquan; Young, Jeremy R.

    2016-07-01

    The South Asian Monson (SAM) is one of the most intense climatic elements yet its initiation and variations are not well established. Dating the deposits of SAM wind-driven currents in IODP cores from the Maldives yields an age of 12. 9 Ma indicating an abrupt SAM onset, over a short period of 300 kyrs. This coincided with the Indian Ocean Oxygen Minimum Zone expansion as revealed by geochemical tracers and the onset of upwelling reflected by the sediment’s content of particulate organic matter. A weaker ‘proto-monsoon’ existed between 12.9 and 25 Ma, as mirrored by the sedimentary signature of dust influx. Abrupt SAM initiation favors a strong influence of climate in addition to the tectonic control, and we propose that the post Miocene Climate Optimum cooling, together with increased continentalization and establishment of the bipolar ocean circulation, i.e. the beginning of the modern world, shifted the monsoon over a threshold towards the modern system.

  7. Regional Climate Simulation of the Anomalous Events of 1998 using a Stretched-Grid GCM with Multiple Areas of Interest

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fox-Rabinovitz, M. S.; Takacs, L. L.; Govindaraju, R. C.; Atlas, Robert (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The GEOS (Goddard Earth Observing System) stretched-grid (SG) GCM developed and thoroughly tested over the last few years, is used for simulating the major anomalous regional climate events of 1998. The anomalous regional climate events are simulated simultaneously during the 13 months long (November-1997 - December-1998) SG-GCM simulation due to using the new SG-design with multiple (four) areas of interest. The following areas/regions of interest (one at each global quadrant) are implemented: U.S./Northern Mexico, the El-Nino/Brazil area, India-China, and Eastern Indian Ocean/Australia.

  8. Downscaling 20th century flooding events in complex terrain (Switzerland) using the WRF regional climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heikkilä, Ulla; Gómez Navarro, Juan Jose; Franke, Jörg; Brönnimann, Stefan; Cattin, Réne

    2016-04-01

    Switzerland has experienced a number of severe precipitation events during the last few decades, such as during the 14-16 November of 2002 or during the 21-22 August of 2005. Both events, and subsequent extreme floods, caused fatalities and severe financial losses, and have been well studied both in terms of atmospheric conditions leading to extreme precipitation, and their consequences [e.g. Hohenegger et al., 2008, Stucki et al., 2012]. These examples highlight the need to better characterise the frequency and severity of flooding in the Alpine area. In a larger framework we will ultimately produce a high-resolution data set covering the entire 20th century to be used for detailed hydrological studies including all atmospheric parameters relevant for flooding events. In a first step, we downscale the aforementioned two events of 2002 and 2005 to assess the model performance regarding precipitation extremes. The complexity of the topography in the Alpine area demands high resolution datasets. To achieve a sufficient detail in resolution we employ the Weather Research and Forecasting regional climate model (WRF). A set of 4 nested domains is used with a 2-km resolution horizontal resolution over Switzerland. The NCAR 20th century reanalysis (20CR) with a horizontal resolution of 2.5° serves as boundary condition [Compo et al., 2011]. First results of the downscaling the 2002 and 2005 extreme precipitation events show that, compared to station observations provided by the Swiss Meteorological Office MeteoSwiss, the model strongly underestimates the strength of these events. This is mainly due to the coarse resolution of the 20CR data, which underestimates the moisture fluxes during these events. We tested driving WRF with the higher-resolved NCEP reanalysis and found a significant improvement in the amount of precipitation of the 2005 event. In a next step we will downscale the precipitation and wind fields during a 6-year period 2002-2007 to investigate and

  9. Climate projections of future extreme events accounting for modelling uncertainties and historical simulation biases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brown, Simon J.; Murphy, James M.; Sexton, David M. H.; Harris, Glen R.

    2014-11-01

    A methodology is presented for providing projections of absolute future values of extreme weather events that takes into account key uncertainties in predicting future climate. This is achieved by characterising both observed and modelled extremes with a single form of non-stationary extreme value (EV) distribution that depends on global mean temperature and which includes terms that account for model bias. Such a distribution allows the prediction of future "observed" extremes for any period in the twenty-first century. Uncertainty in modelling future climate, arising from a wide range of atmospheric, oceanic, sulphur cycle and carbon cycle processes, is accounted for by using probabilistic distributions of future global temperature and EV parameters. These distributions are generated by Bayesian sampling of emulators with samples weighted by their likelihood with respect to a set of observational constraints. The emulators are trained on a large perturbed parameter ensemble of global simulations of the recent past, and the equilibrium response to doubled CO2. Emulated global EV parameters are converted to the relevant regional scale through downscaling relationships derived from a smaller perturbed parameter regional climate model ensemble. The simultaneous fitting of the EV model to regional model data and observations allows the characterisation of how observed extremes may change in the future irrespective of biases that may be present in the regional models simulation of the recent past climate. The clearest impact of a parameter perturbation in this ensemble was found to be the depth to which plants can access water. Members with shallow soils tend to be biased hot and dry in summer for the observational period. These biases also appear to have an impact on the potential future response for summer temperatures with some members with shallow soils having increases for extremes that reduce with extreme severity. We apply this methodology for London, using the

  10. The role of regional climate model setup in simulating two extreme precipitation events in the European Alpine region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Awan, Nauman Khurshid; Gobiet, Andreas; Suklitsch, Martin

    2015-01-01

    In this study we have investigated the role of domain settings and model's physics in simulating two extreme precipitation events. Four regional climate models, all driven with a re-analysis dataset were used to create an ensemble of 61 high-resolution simulations by varying physical parameterization schemes, domain sizes, nudging and nesting techniques. The two discussed events are three-day time slices taken from approximately 15-months long climate simulations. The results show that dynamical downscaling significantly improves the spatial characteristics such as correlation, variability as well as location and intensity of maximum precipitation. Spatial variability, which is underestimated by most of the simulations can be improved by choosing suitable vertical resolution, convective and microphysics scheme. The results further suggest that for studies focusing on extreme precipitation events relatively small domains or nudging could be advantageous. However, a final conclusion on this issue would be premature, since only two extreme precipitation events are considered.

  11. The role of regional climate model setup in simulating two extreme precipitation events in the European Alpine region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Awan, Nauman Khurshid; Gobiet, Andreas; Suklitsch, Martin

    2014-09-01

    In this study we have investigated the role of domain settings and model's physics in simulating two extreme precipitation events. Four regional climate models, all driven with a re-analysis dataset were used to create an ensemble of 61 high-resolution simulations by varying physical parameterization schemes, domain sizes, nudging and nesting techniques. The two discussed events are three-day time slices taken from approximately 15-months long climate simulations. The results show that dynamical downscaling significantly improves the spatial characteristics such as correlation, variability as well as location and intensity of maximum precipitation. Spatial variability, which is underestimated by most of the simulations can be improved by choosing suitable vertical resolution, convective and microphysics scheme. The results further suggest that for studies focusing on extreme precipitation events relatively small domains or nudging could be advantageous. However, a final conclusion on this issue would be premature, since only two extreme precipitation events are considered.

  12. Abrupt pre-Bølling-Allerød warming and circulation changes in the deep ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thiagarajan, Nivedita; Subhas, Adam V.; Southon, John R.; Eiler, John M.; Adkins, Jess F.

    2014-07-01

    Several large and rapid changes in atmospheric temperature and the partial pressure of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere--probably linked to changes in deep ocean circulation--occurred during the last deglaciation. The abrupt temperature rise in the Northern Hemisphere and the restart of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at the start of the Bølling-Allerød interstadial, 14,700 years ago, are among the most dramatic deglacial events, but their underlying physical causes are not known. Here we show that the release of heat from warm waters in the deep North Atlantic Ocean probably triggered the Bølling-Allerød warming and reinvigoration of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Our results are based on coupled radiocarbon and uranium-series dates, along with clumped isotope temperature estimates, from water column profiles of fossil deep-sea corals in a limited area of the western North Atlantic. We find that during Heinrich stadial 1 (the cool period immediately before the Bølling-Allerød interstadial), the deep ocean was about three degrees Celsius warmer than shallower waters above. This reversal of the ocean's usual thermal stratification pre-dates the Bølling-Allerød warming and must have been associated with increased salinity at depth to preserve the static stability of the water column. The depleted radiocarbon content of the warm and salty water mass implies a long-term disconnect from rapid surface exchanges, and, although uncertainties remain, is most consistent with a Southern Ocean source. The Heinrich stadial 1 ocean profile is distinct from the modern water column, that for the Last Glacial Maximum and that for the Younger Dryas, suggesting that the patterns we observe are a unique feature of the deglacial climate system. Our observations indicate that the deep ocean influenced dramatic Northern Hemisphere warming by storing heat at depth that preconditioned the system for a subsequent abrupt overturning event during the

  13. The potential impacts of climate variability and change on health impacts of extreme weather events in the United States.

    PubMed Central

    Greenough, G; McGeehin, M; Bernard, S M; Trtanj, J; Riad, J; Engelberg, D

    2001-01-01

    Extreme weather events such as precipitation extremes and severe storms cause hundreds of deaths and injuries annually in the United States. Climate change may alter the frequency, timing, intensity, and duration of these events. Increases in heavy precipitation have occurred over the past century. Future climate scenarios show likely increases in the frequency of extreme precipitation events, including precipitation during hurricanes, raising the risk of floods. Frequencies of tornadoes and hurricanes cannot reliably be projected. Injury and death are the direct health impacts most often associated with natural disasters. Secondary effects, mediated by changes in ecologic systems and public health infrastructure, also occur. The health impacts of extreme weather events hinge on the vulnerabilities and recovery capacities of the natural environment and the local population. Relevant variables include building codes, warning systems, disaster policies, evacuation plans, and relief efforts. There are many federal, state, and local government agencies and nongovernmental organizations involved in planning for and responding to natural disasters in the United States. Future research on health impacts of extreme weather events should focus on improving climate models to project any trends in regional extreme events and as a result improve public health preparedness and mitigation. Epidemiologic studies of health effects beyond the direct impacts of disaster will provide a more accurate measure of the full health impacts and will assist in planning and resource allocation. PMID:11359686

  14. Water-borne diseases and extreme weather events in Cambodia: review of impacts and implications of climate change.

    PubMed

    Davies, Grace I; McIver, Lachlan; Kim, Yoonhee; Hashizume, Masahiro; Iddings, Steven; Chan, Vibol

    2015-01-01

    Cambodia is prone to extreme weather events, especially floods, droughts and typhoons. Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of such events. The Cambodian population is highly vulnerable to the impacts of these events due to poverty; malnutrition; agricultural dependence; settlements in flood-prone areas, and public health, governance and technological limitations. Yet little is known about the health impacts of extreme weather events in Cambodia. Given the extremely low adaptive capacity of the population, this is a crucial knowledge gap. A literature review of the health impacts of floods, droughts and typhoons in Cambodia was conducted, with regional and global information reviewed where Cambodia-specific literature was lacking. Water-borne diseases are of particular concern in Cambodia, in the face of extreme weather events and climate change, due to, inter alia, a high pre-existing burden of diseases such as diarrhoeal illness and a lack of improved sanitation infrastructure in rural areas. A time-series analysis under quasi-Poisson distribution was used to evaluate the association between floods and diarrhoeal disease incidence in Cambodian children between 2001 and 2012 in 16 Cambodian provinces. Floods were significantly associated with increased diarrhoeal disease in two provinces, while the analysis conducted suggested a possible protective effect from toilets and piped water. Addressing the specific, local pre-existing vulnerabilities is vital to promoting population health resilience and strengthening adaptive capacity to extreme weather events and climate change in Cambodia. PMID:25546280

  15. Water-Borne Diseases and Extreme Weather Events in Cambodia: Review of Impacts and Implications of Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Davies, Grace I.; McIver, Lachlan; Kim, Yoonhee; Hashizume, Masahiro; Iddings, Steven; Chan, Vibol

    2014-01-01

    Cambodia is prone to extreme weather events, especially floods, droughts and typhoons. Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of such events. The Cambodian population is highly vulnerable to the impacts of these events due to poverty; malnutrition; agricultural dependence; settlements in flood-prone areas, and public health, governance and technological limitations. Yet little is known about the health impacts of extreme weather events in Cambodia. Given the extremely low adaptive capacity of the population, this is a crucial knowledge gap. A literature review of the health impacts of floods, droughts and typhoons in Cambodia was conducted, with regional and global information reviewed where Cambodia-specific literature was lacking. Water-borne diseases are of particular concern in Cambodia, in the face of extreme weather events and climate change, due to, inter alia, a high pre-existing burden of diseases such as diarrhoeal illness and a lack of improved sanitation infrastructure in rural areas. A time-series analysis under quasi-Poisson distribution was used to evaluate the association between floods and diarrhoeal disease incidence in Cambodian children between 2001 and 2012 in 16 Cambodian provinces. Floods were significantly associated with increased diarrhoeal disease in two provinces, while the analysis conducted suggested a possible protective effect from toilets and piped water. Addressing the specific, local pre-existing vulnerabilities is vital to promoting population health resilience and strengthening adaptive capacity to extreme weather events and climate change in Cambodia. PMID:25546280

  16. Sensitivity of Groundwater Recharge Estimations to Climate Change and Frequency Distribution of Precipitation Events: Insights from a Lysimeter Modelling Study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    von Freyberg, J.; Moeck, C.; Schirmer, M.

    2014-12-01

    An adequate quantification of groundwater recharge is required for sustainable water resource management and robust hydrological model predictions. However, estimation of the future temporal evolution of groundwater recharge rates at annual, seasonal or daily time scales remains a challenging task due to the strong linkage of infiltration processes with predicted changes of the frequency distribution of precipitation. While many studies have addressed recharge processes under climate change scenarios, only limited work has been carried out systematically focusing on the impact of precipitation variability. Thus, we simulated groundwater recharge in the Swiss pre-Alpine Rietholzbach research catchment based on a water balance model, that was calibrated to daily direct recharge measured at a weighting lysimeter. Three approaches, employing different degrees of complexity, were utilized to obtain future climatic forcing functions. First, a relatively simple delta change factors approach for three stationary time periods was applied. For this scenario 10 different climate model chains were used to determine the predictive uncertainty accompanied with the different GCM (Global Circulation Model) x RCM (Regional Climate Model) combinations. Second, these delta change values were combined with a stochastic weather generator, which allows for a more realistic simulation of climatic variability compared to the simple delta change downscaling approach. Further, additional uncertainty, linked to natural climate variability in the climatic forcing functions, can be determined more efficiently. Finally, the frequency distribution of precipitation events was artificially adjusted to account for a larger amount of extreme events, thus simulating what is expected for the future. The first simulations indicate that annual recharge is less affected by changes of the frequency distribution of precipitation, however there was a marked impact on the seasonal signal. All approaches

  17. New evidence from the South China Sea for an abrupt termination of the last glacial period

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Broecker, W. S.; Klas, M.; Andree, M.; Bonani, G.; Wolfli, W.

    1988-01-01

    Results demonstrating an abrupt change in the rate and character of sedimentation in the South China Sea at the close of the last glacial period are presented. Radiocarbon dating and its position in the oxygen isotope shift suggest that this change may be coincident with the abrupt change in climatic conditions seen at high latitudes in the North Atlantic and the Antarctic at 13 kyr BP. These results support the contention that a major global climatic change occurred between 14 and 13 kyr BP.

  18. Frequency of Extreme Heat Event as a Surrogate Exposure Metric for Examining the Human Health Effects of Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Romeo Upperman, Crystal; Parker, Jennifer; Jiang, Chengsheng; He, Xin; Murtugudde, Raghuram; Sapkota, Amir

    2015-01-01

    Epidemiological investigation of the impact of climate change on human health, particularly chronic diseases, is hindered by the lack of exposure metrics that can be used as a marker of climate change that are compatible with health data. Here, we present a surrogate exposure metric created using a 30-year baseline (1960–1989) that allows users to quantify long-term changes in exposure to frequency of extreme heat events with near unabridged spatial coverage in a scale that is compatible with national/state health outcome data. We evaluate the exposure metric by decade, seasonality, area of the country, and its ability to capture long-term changes in weather (climate), including natural climate modes. Our findings show that this generic exposure metric is potentially useful to monitor trends in the frequency of extreme heat events across varying regions because it captures long-term changes; is sensitive to the natural climate modes (ENSO events); responds well to spatial variability, and; is amenable to spatial/temporal aggregation, making it useful for epidemiological studies. PMID:26641244

  19. Transient Climate Simulation of the last deglaciation in CCSM3

    SciTech Connect

    He, Feng; Erickson III, David J; Jacob, Robert L.

    2009-12-01

    We conducted the first synchronously coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model simulation of global climate evolution of the last deglaciation (21,000-10,000 years ago) using the NCAR CCSM3. With realistic climate forcings associated with greenhouse gasses, orbital forcing and continental ice sheet, as well as a reasonable melting water forcing, our model reproduces some major deglacial climate features, such as the H1 event, the BA warming and the YD event. A preliminary model-data comparison shows a global climate evolution largely consistent with the reconstruction. The magnitude of our model climate responses are largely consistent with the reconstruction, suggesting a good agreement between observed and modeled climate sensitivity. In contrast to previous simulations of intermediate climate models, our model AMOC has little hysteresis. As a result, the model simulates the abrupt onset of the BA warming and the abrupt termination of the YD cooling as transient responses of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) to abrupt terminations of freshwater discharges. Further implications to transient model-data comparison will also be discussed.

  20. Stable-Carbon Isotopes of U.S. Great Plains Soils and Climate Events during the Holocene.

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    A suite of 12 soil profiles from the U.S. Great Plains and western Corn Belt were sampled to a depth of 2 m and radiocarbon dating control was established to investigate possible changes in stable-carbon isotope composition of SOC over space and time associated with major Holocene climate events. T...

  1. Model-based assessment of the role of human-induced climate change in the 2005 Caribbean coral bleaching event.

    PubMed

    Donner, Simon D; Knutson, Thomas R; Oppenheimer, Michael

    2007-03-27

    Episodes of mass coral bleaching around the world in recent decades have been attributed to periods of anomalously warm ocean temperatures. In 2005, the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the tropical North Atlantic that may have contributed to the strong hurricane season caused widespread coral bleaching in the Eastern Caribbean. Here, we use two global climate models to evaluate the contribution of natural climate variability and anthropogenic forcing to the thermal stress that caused the 2005 coral bleaching event. Historical temperature data and simulations for the 1870-2000 period show that the observed warming in the region is unlikely to be due to unforced climate variability alone. Simulation of background climate variability suggests that anthropogenic warming may have increased the probability of occurrence of significant thermal stress events for corals in this region by an order of magnitude. Under scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions, mass coral bleaching in the Eastern Caribbean may become a biannual event in 20-30 years. However, if corals and their symbionts can adapt by 1-1.5 degrees C, such mass bleaching events may not begin to recur at potentially harmful intervals until the latter half of the century. The delay could enable more time to alter the path of greenhouse gas emissions, although long-term "committed warming" even after stabilization of atmospheric CO(2) levels may still represent an additional long-term threat to corals. PMID:17360373

  2. Model-based assessment of the role of human-induced climate change in the 2005 Caribbean coral bleaching event

    SciTech Connect

    Donner, S.D.; Knutson, T.R.; Oppenheimer, M.

    2007-03-27

    Episodes of mass coral bleaching around the world in recent decades have been attributed to periods of anomalously warm ocean temperatures. In 2005, the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the tropical North Atlantic that may have contributed to the strong hurricane season caused widespread coral bleaching in the Eastern Caribbean. Here, the authors use two global climate models to evaluate the contribution of natural climate variability and anthropogenic forcing to the thermal stress that caused the 2005 coral bleaching event. Historical temperature data and simulations for the 1870-2000 period show that the observed warming in the region is unlikely to be due to unforced climate variability alone. Simulation of background climate variability suggests that anthropogenic warming may have increased the probability of occurrence of significant thermal stress events for corals in this region by an order of magnitude. Under scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions, mass coral bleaching in the Eastern Caribbean may become a biannual event in 20-30 years. However, if corals and their symbionts can adapt by 1-1.5{sup o}C, such mass bleaching events may not begin to recur at potentially harmful intervals until the latter half of the century. The delay could enable more time to alter the path of greenhouse gas emissions, although long-term 'committed warming' even after stabilization of atmospheric CO{sub 2} levels may still represent an additional long-term threat to corals.

  3. Interpreting Climate Model Projections of Extreme Weather Events for Decision Makers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vavrus, S. J.; Notaro, M.

    2014-12-01

    The proliferation of output from climate model ensembles, such as CMIP3 and CMIP5, has greatly expanded access to future projections, but there is no accepted blueprint for how this data should be interpreted. Decision makers are thus faced with difficult questions when trying to utilize such information: How reliable are the multi-model mean projections? How should the changes simulated by outlier models be treated? How can raw projections of temperature and precipitation be translated into probabilities? The multi-model average is often regarded as the most accurate single estimate of future conditions, but higher-order moments representing the variance and skewness of the distribution of projections provide important information about uncertainty. We have analyzed a set of statistically downscaled climate model projections from the CMIP3 archive to conduct an assessment of extreme weather events at a level designed to be relevant for decision makers. Our analysis uses the distribution of 13 GCM projections to derive the inter-model standard deviation (and coefficient of variation, COV), skewness, and percentile ranges for simulated changes in extreme heat, cold, and precipitation during the middle and late 21st century for the A1B emissions scenario. These metrics help to establish the overall confidence level across the entire range of projections (via the inter-model COV), relative confidence in the simulated high-end versus low-end changes (via skewness), and probabilistic uncertainty bounds derived from a bootstrapping technique. Over our analysis domain centered on the United States Midwest, some primary findings include: (1) Greater confidence in projections of less extreme cold than more extreme heat and intense precipitation, (2) Greater confidence in the low-end than high-end projections of extreme heat, and (3) Higher spatial and temporal variability in the confidence of projected increases of heavy precipitation. In addition, our bootstrapping

  4. Historical sources on climate and extreme events before XX century in Calabria (Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aurora Pasqua, Angela; Petrucci, Olga

    2014-05-01

    Damaging Hydrogeological Events (DHEs) are defined as the occurrence of destructive phenomena, such as landslides and floods, triggered by extreme rain events. Due to the huge damage that they can cause to people and properties, DHEs are often described in a wide series of historical sources. The historical series of DHEs that affected a study region can supply useful information about the climatic trend of the area. Moreover, it can reveals temporal and spatial increases in vulnerability affecting sectors where urbanization increased throughout the time. On the other side, it can highlight further vulnerability variations occurred throughout the decades and related to specific defensive measures undertaken (or abandoned) in order to prevent damage caused by either landslides or floods. We present the historical series of catastrophic DHEs which affected a Mediterranean region named Calabria that is located in southern Italy. Data presented came from the database named ASICal (the Italian acronym of historically flooded areas in Calabria) that has been built at the beginning of 2000 at CNR-IRPI of Cosenza and that has been continuously updated since then. Currently, this database includes more than 11,000 records about floods and landslides which have been occurred in Calabria since the XVI century. These data came from different information sources as newspapers, archives of regional and national agencies, scientific and technical reports, on-site surveys reports and so on. ASICal is constantly updated. The updating concerns both current DHEs that every years affect the region, and the results of specific historical research that we regularly perform in order to fill data gaps for older epochs. In this work we present the result of a recent survey carried out in some regional public libraries focusing on the early-mid XIX century. The type of data sources available for the regional framework are described and a sketch of the DHEs trend during the last three

  5. Impacts of climate variability and extreme events on soil hydrological processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramos, M. C.; Mulligan, M.

    2003-04-01

    The Mediterranean climate (dry subhumid), characterised by a high variability, produces in many situations an insufficient water supply to support stable agriculture. Not only is there insufficient rainfall, but its occurrence is also highly variable between years, during the year, and spatially, during a single rainfall event. One of the main climatic characteristics affecting the vulnerability of the Mediterranean region is the high intensity rainfalls which fall after a very dry summer and the high degree of climatic fluctuation in the short and long term, especially in rainfall quantity. In addition, the rainwater penetration and storage of water in the soil are conditioned by the soil characteristics, in some cases modified by changes in land use and with new management practices. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of this high variability, from year to year and through the year, on soil hydrological processes, in fields resulted of the mechanisation works in vineyards in a Mediterranean environment. The PATTERNlight model, a simplified two-dimensional version of the hydrological and growth PATTERN model (Mulligan, 1996) is used here to simulate the water balance for three situations: normal, wet and dry years. Ssignificant differences in soil moisture and recharge were observed under vine culture from year to year, giving rise very often, to critical situations for the development of the crops. The distribution of the rainfall through the year together with the intensity of the recorded rainfalls is much very significant for soil hydrology than the total annual rainfall. Very low soil moisture conditions are raised when spring rainfall is scarce, which contribute to exhaustion of profile soil water over the summer, especially if the antecedent soil moisture is low. This low soil moisture has a significant effect on the development of the vine crop. The simulations of leaf and root biomass carried out with the PATTERNLIGHT model indicate the

  6. Timing and duration of climate variability during the 8.2 ka event reconstructed from four speleothems from Germany

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wenz, Sarah; Scholz, Denis; Spötl, Christoph; Plessen, Birgit; Mischel, Simon; Breitenbach, Sebastian F. M.; Jochum, Klaus Peter; Fohlmeister, Jens

    2016-04-01

    The most prominent climate anomaly of the Holocene is the 8.2 ka event, which reflects the impact of a dramatic freshwater influx into the North Atlantic during an interglacial climate state. Thus, it can be considered as a possible analogue for future climate change. Due to the short-lived nature of the event (160.5 ± 5.5 years; Thomas et al., 2007), a detailed investigation requires archives of both high temporal resolution and accurate chronology. We present high-resolution stable oxygen and carbon isotope (ca. 3-4 years) as well as sub-annually resolved trace element records of the 8.2 ka event from stalagmites (BB-3, Bu4, HLK2 and TV1) from three cave systems in Germany (Blessberg Cave, Bunker Cave and Herbstlabyrinth). The location of these caves in central European is well suited in order to detect changes in temperature and precipitation in relation to changes in the North Atlantic region (Fohlmeister et al., 2012). The 8.2 ka event is clearly recorded as a pronounced negative excursion in the δ18O values of all four speleothems. While stalagmites BB-3 from Blessberg Cave and Bu4 from Bunker Cave also show a negative excursion in the δ13C values during the event, the two speleothems from Herbstlabyrinth show no distinctive features in their δ13C values. The timing, duration and structure of the event differ between the individual records. In BB-3, the event occurs earlier (ca. 8.4 ka) and has a relatively short duration of ca. 90 years. In Bu4, the event occurs later (ca. 8.1 ka) and shows a relatively long duration of more than 200 years. In the two speleothems from the Herbstlabyrinth, the event is replicated and has a timing between 8.3 and 8.1 ka and a duration of ca. 150 years. These differences may at least in part be related to the dating uncertainties of 100-200 years (95 % confidence limits). References: Fohlmeister, J., Schroder-Ritzrau, A., Scholz, D., Spötl, C., Riechelmann, D.F.C., Mudelsee, M., Wackerbarth, A., Gerdes, A., Riechelmann, S

  7. Climate Model Simulation of Present and Future Extreme Events in Latin America and the Caribbean: What Spatial Resolution is Required?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rowe, C. M.; Oglesby, R. J.; Mawalagedara, R.; Mohammad Abadi Kamarei, A.

    2015-12-01

    Latin America and the Caribbean are at risk of extreme climate events, including flooding rains, damaging winds, drought, heat waves, and in high elevation mountainous regions, excessive snowfalls. The causes of these events are numerous - flooding rains and damaging winds are often associated with tropical cyclones, but also can occur, either separately or in tandem, due to smaller, more localized storms. Similarly, heat waves and droughts can be large scale or localized, and frequently occur together (as excessive drying can lead to enhanced heating, while enhanced heating in turn promotes additional drying). Even in the tropics, extreme snow and ice events can have severe consequences due to avalanches, and also impact water resources. Understanding and modeling the climate controls behind these extreme events requires consideration of a range of time and space scales. A common strategy is to use a global climate model (GCM) to simulate the large-scale (~100km) daily atmospheric controls on extreme events. A limited area, high resolution regional climate model (RCM) is then employed to dynamically downscale the results, so as to better incorporate the influence of topography and, secondarily, the nature of the land cover. But what resolution is required to provide the necessary results, i.e., minimize biases due to improper resolution? In conjunction with our partners from participating Latin American and Caribbean nations, we have made an extensive series of simulations, both region-wide and for individual countries, using the WRF regional climate model to downscale output from a variety of GCMs, as well as Reanalyses (as a proxy for observations). The simulations driven by the Reanalyses are used for robust model verification against actual weather station observations. The simulations driven by GCMs are designed to provide projections of future climate, including importantly how the nature and number of extreme events may change through coming decades. Our

  8. Prediction of fetal acidemia in placental abruption

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background To determine the major predictive factors for fetal acidemia in placental abruption. Methods A retrospective review of pregnancies with placental abruption was performed using a logistic regression model. Fetal acidemia was defined as a pH of less than 7.0 in umbilical artery. The severe abruption score, which was derived from a linear discriminant function, was calculated to determine the probability of fetal acidemia. Results Fetal acidemia was seen in 43 survivors (43/222, 19%). A logistic regression model showed bradycardia (OR (odds ratio) 50.34, 95% CI 11.07 – 228.93), and late decelerations (OR 15.13, 3.05 – 74.97), but not abnormal ultrasonographic findings were to be associated with the occurrence of fetal acidemia. The severe abruption score was calculated for the occurrence of fetal acidemia, using 6 items including vaginal bleeding, gestational age, abdominal pain, abnormal ultrasonographic finding, late decelerations, and bradycardia. Conclusions An abnormal FHR pattern, especially bradycardia is the most significant risk factor in placental abruption predicting fetal acidemia, regardless of the presence of abnormal ultrasonographic findings or gestational age. PMID:23915223

  9. The effects of climatic fluctuations and extreme events on running water ecosystems

    PubMed Central

    Woodward, Guy; Bonada, Núria; Brown, Lee E.; Death, Russell G.; Durance, Isabelle; Gray, Clare; Hladyz, Sally; Ledger, Mark E.; Milner, Alexander M.; Ormerod, Steve J.; Thompson, Ross M.

    2016-01-01

    Most research on the effects of environmental change in freshwaters has focused on incremental changes in average conditions, rather than fluctuations or extreme events such as heatwaves, cold snaps, droughts, floods or wildfires, which may have even more profound consequences. Such events are commonly predicted to increase in frequency, intensity and duration with global climate change, with many systems being exposed to conditions with no recent historical precedent. We propose a mechanistic framework for predicting potential impacts of environmental fluctuations on running-water ecosystems by scaling up effects of fluctuations from individuals to entire ecosystems. This framework requires integration of four key components: effects of the environment on individual metabolism, metabolic and biomechanical constraints on fluctuating species interactions, assembly dynamics of local food webs, and mapping the dynamics of the meta-community onto ecosystem function. We illustrate the framework by developing a mathematical model of environmental fluctuations on dynamically assembling food webs. We highlight (currently limited) empirical evidence for emerging insights and theoretical predictions. For example, widely supported predictions about the effects of environmental fluctuations are: high vulnerability of species with high per capita metabolic demands such as large-bodied ones at the top of food webs; simplification of food web network structure and impaired energetic transfer efficiency; and reduced resilience and top-down relative to bottom-up regulation of food web and ecosystem processes. We conclude by identifying key questions and challenges that need to be addressed to develop more accurate and predictive bio-assessments of the effects of fluctuations, and implications of fluctuations for management practices in an increasingly uncertain world. PMID:27114576

  10. The effects of climatic fluctuations and extreme events on running water ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Woodward, Guy; Bonada, Núria; Brown, Lee E; Death, Russell G; Durance, Isabelle; Gray, Clare; Hladyz, Sally; Ledger, Mark E; Milner, Alexander M; Ormerod, Steve J; Thompson, Ross M; Pawar, Samraat

    2016-05-19

    Most research on the effects of environmental change in freshwaters has focused on incremental changes in average conditions, rather than fluctuations or extreme events such as heatwaves, cold snaps, droughts, floods or wildfires, which may have even more profound consequences. Such events are commonly predicted to increase in frequency, intensity and duration with global climate change, with many systems being exposed to conditions with no recent historical precedent. We propose a mechanistic framework for predicting potential impacts of environmental fluctuations on running-water ecosystems by scaling up effects of fluctuations from individuals to entire ecosystems. This framework requires integration of four key components: effects of the environment on individual metabolism, metabolic and biomechanical constraints on fluctuating species interactions, assembly dynamics of local food webs, and mapping the dynamics of the meta-community onto ecosystem function. We illustrate the framework by developing a mathematical model of environmental fluctuations on dynamically assembling food webs. We highlight (currently limited) empirical evidence for emerging insights and theoretical predictions. For example, widely supported predictions about the effects of environmental fluctuations are: high vulnerability of species with high per capita metabolic demands such as large-bodied ones at the top of food webs; simplification of food web network structure and impaired energetic transfer efficiency; and reduced resilience and top-down relative to bottom-up regulation of food web and ecosystem processes. We conclude by identifying key questions and challenges that need to be addressed to develop more accurate and predictive bio-assessments of the effects of fluctuations, and implications of fluctuations for management practices in an increasingly uncertain world. PMID:27114576

  11. Abrupt termination of Marine Isotope Stage 16 (Termination VII) at 631.5 ka in Santa Barbara Basin, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dean, Walter E.; Kennett, James P.; Behl, Richard J.; Nicholson, Craig; Sorlien, Christopher C.

    2015-10-01

    The Marine Isotope Stage 16-15 boundary (Termination VII) is the first deglacial warming step of the late Quaternary following the mid-Pleistocene transition (MPT), when 41 kyr climatic cycles shifted to strong 100 kyr cycles. The detailed structure of this important climatic event has remained unknown until now. Core MV0508-19JPC from Santa Barbara Basin, California, contains a decadal-scale climatic and geochemical sediment record of 4000 years duration that includes the early part of this deglacial episode. This record reveals that the climatic shift during the early deglacial occurred rapidly (<700 years), in a progression of three abrupt warming steps. The onset of Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 15 was remarkably abrupt with 4-5°C sea surface warming in ~50 years. The deglacial sequence contains the well-dated Lava Creek tephra (631.3 ± 4 ka) from Yellowstone Caldera used to date the onset of Termination VII at 631.5 ka. The late MIS 16 and early MIS 15 interval exhibits multiple decadal-scale negative excursions in δ13C of planktic foraminifera, likely the result of repeated discharges of methane from methane hydrates associated with both ocean warming and low sea level. A warm interstadial that interrupts late MIS 16 is marked by elevated concentrations of redox-sensitive elements indicating sulfidic, oxygen-deficient bottom and pore-waters, and elevated concentrations of total organic carbon and Cd, reflecting increased surface productivity. Unlike younger sediments on the California margin, these indicators of increased productivity and low dissolved oxygen do not consistently correspond with each other or with preserved laminations, possibly reflecting instability of a still evolving ocean-atmosphere system following the MPT.

  12. Climatic events inducing die-off in Mediterranean shrublands: are species' responses related to their functional traits?

    PubMed

    Lloret, Francisco; de la Riva, Enrique G; Pérez-Ramos, Ignacio M; Marañón, Teodoro; Saura-Mas, Sandra; Díaz-Delgado, Ricardo; Villar, Rafael

    2016-04-01

    Extreme climatic episodes, likely associated with climate change, often result in profound alterations of ecosystems and, particularly, in drastic events of vegetation die-off. Species attributes are expected to explain different biological responses to these environmental alterations. Here we explored how changes in plant cover and recruitment in response to an extreme climatic episode of drought and low temperatures were related to a set of functional traits (of leaves, roots and seeds) in Mediterranean shrubland species of south-west Spain. Remaining aerial green cover 2 years after the climatic event was positively related to specific leaf area (SLA), and negatively to leaf water potential, stable carbon isotope ratio and leaf proline content. However, plant cover resilience, i.e. the ability to attain pre-event values, was positively related to a syndrome of traits distinguished by a higher efficiency of water use and uptake. Thus, higher SLA and lower water-use efficiency characterized species that were able to maintain green biomass for a longer period of time but were less resilient in the medium term. There was a negative relationship between such syndromes and the number of emerging seedlings. Species with small seeds produced more seedlings per adult. Overall, recruitment was positively correlated with species die-off. This study demonstrates the relationship between plant traits and strong environmental pulses related to climate change, providing a functional interpretation of the recently reported episodes of climate-induced vegetation die-off. Our findings reveal the importance of selecting meaningful traits to interpret post-event resilience processes, particularly when combined with demographic attributes. PMID:26801493

  13. Climate extremes and adaptive management on the Colorado River: lessons from the 1997-1998 ENSO event.

    PubMed

    Pulwarty, R S; Melis, T S

    2001-11-01

    The Colorado River system exhibits the characteristics of a heavily over-allocated or 'closing water system'. In such systems, development of mechanisms to allow resource users to acknowledge interdependence and to engage in negotiations and agreements becomes necessary. Recently, after a decade of deliberations and environmental assessments, the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program (GCDAMP) was established to monitor and analyze the effects of dam operations on the Grand Canyon ecosystem and recommend adjustments intended to preserve and enhance downstream physical, cultural and environmental values. The Glen Canyon Dam effectively separates the Colorado into its lower and upper basins. Dam operations and adaptive management decisions are strongly influenced by variations in regional climate. This paper focuses on the management of extreme climatic events within the Glen and Grand Canyon Region of the Colorado River. It illustrates how past events (both societal and physical) condition management flexibility and receptivity to new information. The types of climatic information and their appropriate entry points in the annual cycle of information gathering and decision-making (the 'hydro-climatic decision calendar') for dam operations and the adaptive management program are identified. The study then describes how the recently implemented program, lessons from past events, and new climate information on the Colorado River Basin, facilitated responses during the major El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event of 1997-1998. Recommendations are made for engaging researchers and practitioners in the effective use of climatic information in similar settings where the decision stakes are complex and the system uncertainty is large. PMID:11775502

  14. Upland catchment response to base level lowering, climate and dam events. A combined field and modelling approach.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Gorp, Wouter; Schoorl, Jeroen; Temme, Arnaud; Reimann, Tony; Wijbrans, Jan; Maddy, Darrel; Demir, Tuncer; Veldkamp, Tom

    2015-04-01

    Combining field reconstruction and landscape evolution modelling can be useful to investigate the relative role of different drivers on catchment response. The Geren Catchment, a small (~45 km2) upland catchment in western Turkey is a suitable catchment for such a study. This catchment endured gradual Quaternary uplift-driven incision of its trunk river, the Gediz. Additionally, fieldwork and dating results show that its outlet has been dammed repeatedly by lava flows since ~300 ka, resulting in infrequent base level rise and fall. Incision of the Geren trunk gully has been delayed until at least the end of MIS 5, after which an incision phase lowered the Gediz by around 30 m. Subsequent erosion and aggradation sequences demonstrate how the Geren Catchment has responded to base level lowering at least since MIS 4 by stepped net incision. Field reconstruction left us with uncertainty about what the main drivers of terrace formation were, therefore, possible scenarios were simulated using landscape evolution modelling. Three scenarios of landscape evolution in the Geren Catchment were investigated: i) uplift with climate (rainfall and vegetation based on arboreal pollen), ii) uplift, climate and short damming events and iii) uplift, climate and long damming events. Output was evaluated for erosion-aggradation evolution in trunk gullies at two different distances from the catchment outlet. Climate influences erosion - aggradation activity in the upstream reach, although internal feedbacks influence timing and magnitude. Lava damming events leave an aggradation signal in the downstream reach, while complex and lagged response to these dams obscure correlations with climate and leave a legacy on current landscape evolution. Catchment response to long damming events correspond best with field reconstruction and dating. The combination of climate and base level explains a significant part of the landscape evolution history of the Geren Catchment. By combining model

  15. Learning from today's extreme weather events to increase our resilience to climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruin, I.; Lutoff, C.; Borga, M.; Creutin, J.-D.; Anquetin, S.; Gruntfest, E.; Scolobig, A.

    2009-04-01

    According to the IPCC, flooding is the most widespread serious potential impact of climate change on human settlement. Vulnerability to floods can be thought as a function of exposure and adaptive capacity, and all three entities have been increasing in many areas. Therefore, in order to inform decision-makers, it is crucial to better understand what are the vulnerability factors but also to what extend individuals and societies are capable to adapt their way of life to their changing environment. In this perspective, flash flood events offer a good example of the kind of extremes that our societies may have to face more often in the future. Characterized by their suddenness, fast and violent movement, rarity and small scale, they are particularly difficult to forecast accurately and leave very little lead-time for warnings. In this context, our interdisciplinary team conducts research focusing on individual and human organization responses to warning and crisis situations by using a comprehensive, coupled natural—human system approach over time and space scales. The objective is to understand i) what cognitive and situational factors help individuals and communities to shift from normal daily activities to adapted crisis response and ii) what is the dynamic of this process compared to the one of the natural phenomenon. In this regard, our research learned both from individual perception and behavioral intent survey ("what if" type of survey) than from actual behavioral data gathered in a context of post-event investigations. The review of the literature shows that behavioral intent surveys do not accurately predict warning and crisis response as well as behavioral data do. Knowing that, the difficulty is to obtain consistent and accurate spatio-temporal behavioral data. According to our experience, this is particularly difficult in the context of crisis situations. Behavioral verification requires real-time observations and data collection of indicators

  16. Sensitivity of the Atmospheric Response to Warm Pool El Nino Events to Modeled SSTs and Future Climate Forcings

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hurwitz, Margaret M.; Garfinkel, Chaim I.; Newman, Paul A.; Oman, Luke D.

    2013-01-01

    Warm pool El Nino (WPEN) events are characterized by positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific. Under present-day climate conditions, WPEN events generate poleward propagating wavetrains and enhance midlatitude planetary wave activity, weakening the stratospheric polar vortices. The late 21st century extratropical atmospheric response to WPEN events is investigated using the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM), version 2. GEOSCCM simulations are forced by projected late 21st century concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) and by SSTs and sea ice concentrations from an existing ocean-atmosphere simulation. Despite known ocean-atmosphere model biases, the prescribed SST fields represent a best estimate of the structure of late 21st century WPEN events. The future Arctic vortex response is qualitatively similar to that observed in recent decades but is weaker in late winter. This response reflects the weaker SST forcing in the Nino 3.4 region and subsequently weaker Northern Hemisphere tropospheric teleconnections. The Antarctic stratosphere does not respond to WPEN events in a future climate, reflecting a change in tropospheric teleconnections: The meridional wavetrain weakens while a more zonal wavetrain originates near Australia. Sensitivity simulations show that a strong poleward wavetrain response to WPEN requires a strengthening and southeastward extension of the South Pacific Convergence Zone; this feature is not captured by the late 21st century modeled SSTs. Expected future increases in GHGs and decreases in ODSs do not affect the polar stratospheric responses to WPEN.

  17. M.Y.S.P.A.C.E. : Multinational Youth Studying Practical Applications of Climatic Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mckay, M.; Arvedson, J. P.; Arvedson, P.

    2014-12-01

    M.Y. S.P.A.C.E. (Multinational Youth Studying Practical Applications of Climatic Events) is an international collaboration of high school students engaged in self-selected research projects on the local impact of global environmental issues. Students work with their own, trained, Teacher Leaders at their school sites using both locally generated and satellite-based remote-sensing data with support from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Teams from each school meet at the annual Satellites & Education Conference to discover global trends in their collective data and present their findings. Students learn and practice techniques of scientific investigation; methods of data processing, analysis and interpretation; leadership; and effective communication. They work with NOAA and NASA scientists and engineers, experience university campus life, and can apply for special internships at selected university research centers such as the Center for Energy and Sustainability (CE&S), the Center for Spatial Analysis and Remote Sensing (CSARS), and graduate research opportunities in Geosciences and Environment. The M.Y. S.P.A.C.E. Program is an initiative of the Satellites & Education Conference, which is produced by the non-profit Satellite Educators Association. It is administered from the campus of California State University, Los Angeles. NOAA, NASA, and the NOAA-CREST West grant support the program. It is aligned with NOAA goals of building excitement about careers in science, math, engineering and technology.

  18. Documentation and virtual reconstruction of historical objects in Peru damaged by an earthquake and climatic events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hanzalová, K.; Pavelka, K.

    2013-07-01

    This paper deals with the possibilities of creating a 3-D model and a visualization technique for a presentation of historical buildings and sites in Peru. The project Nasca/CTU is documenting historical objects by using several techniques. This paper describes the documentation and the visualization of two historical churches (San Jose and San Xavier Churches) and the pre-Hispanic archaeological site La Ciudad Perdida de Huayuri (Abandoned town near Huayuri) in Nasca region by using photogrammetry and remote sensing. Both churches were damaged by an earthquake. We use different process for the documentation of these objects. Firstly, PhotoModeler software was used for the photogrammetric data processing of the acquired images. The subsequent making models of both churches were different too. Google SketchUp software was used for the San Jose Church and the 3-D model of San Xavier Church was created in MicroStation software. While in the modelling of the "Abandoned town" near Huayuri, which was destroyed by a climatic event (El Niño), the terrestrial photogrammetry, satellite data and GNSS measurement were applied. The general output of the project is a thematic map of this archaeological site; C14 method was used for dating.

  19. Role of the Bering Strait on the hysteresis of the ocean conveyor belt circulation and glacial climate stability.

    PubMed

    Hu, Aixue; Meehl, Gerald A; Han, Weiqing; Timmermann, Axel; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Liu, Zhengyu; Washington, Warren M; Large, William; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Kimoto, Masahide; Lambeck, Kurt; Wu, Bingyi

    2012-04-24

    Abrupt climate transitions, known as Dansgaard-Oeschger and Heinrich events, occurred frequently during the last glacial period, specifically from 80-11 thousand years before present, but were nearly absent during interglacial periods and the early stages of glacial periods, when major ice-sheets were still forming. Here we show, with a fully coupled state-of-the-art climate model, that closing the Bering Strait and preventing its throughflow between the Pacific and Arctic Oceans during the glacial period can lead to the emergence of stronger hysteresis behavior of the ocean conveyor belt circulation to create conditions that are conducive to triggering abrupt climate transitions. Hence, it is argued that even for greenhouse warming, abrupt climate transitions similar to those in the last glacial time are unlikely to occur as the Bering Strait remains open. PMID:22493225

  20. Stalagmite-inferred abrupt hydroclimate changes in the central Mediterranean over the past 6500 years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, H. M.; Shen, C. C.; Jiang, X.; Wang, Y.; Mii, H. S.

    2015-12-01

    Mediterranean, as one of the global climate change "hot spots", was faced with severe drought over the recent decades. Investigation of regional paleo-hydroclimate evolution helps improve climate projection and adaption strategy. Here, we present a new decadal-resolved record documenting hydroclimate in the central Mediterranean from an Italian stalagmite since 6500 years ago. Eighty high-precision absolute U-Th dates with 2-sigma uncertainty better than ±20 years and 560 oxygen isotopic ratio data show several abrupt drying events with an average of 600 mm precipitation decrease in less than 80 years since the mid-Holocene. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) could dominantly govern the centennial-scale hydroclimate variability, especially for a period of 4500 to 2000 years ago. Total solar irradiance (TSI) also partially affected this regional precipitation. The obscure relationship between stalagmite and global/local mean surface temperature sequences, in contradict to previous studies, implies complex internal feedback of global warming and atmospheric circulation in the Mediterranean. Our result suggests that the twenty-first century Mediterranean drying trend is significant but not unprecedented in the past six thousand years.

  1. Characteristic of blocking events over Siberia for the present and future climate conditions, and the implications for the regional climate in South China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheung, H.; Zhou, W.

    2010-12-01

    Blocking activity over Siberia is a crucial factor for initiating and maintaining severe cold events in East Asia, but limited studies have provided a detailed analysis on the impact of its changing characteristics on the regional climate, especially in South China. By using 60-year NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis Datasets (1950/51-2009/10), where a winter season is defined as the 151/152 day period from Nov 1 to Mar 31, distinct characteristics of the blocking events and their downstream impacts for the present climate conditions can be assessed thoroughly. It is found that the blocking events persisting east of the Ural Mountains are generally followed by a cold air outbreak sweeping across various parts in East Asia. Specifically, the intense blocking events usually have large extension and they potentially result in persistent cold weather within the region. On the other hand, the blocking events west of the Ural Mountains are found to exert an impact only if it is of long duration and high intensity. The cold air pathways may be dependent on the geographic location of the blocking anticyclone. The active blocking season over the Urals is probably associated with more intense cold events extending southward and eastward to a great extent. On the contrary, the cold events in the winters of high blocking activity east and west of the Urals are often confined to the northern region. The preferred blocking location may be related to the wavetrain signal propagating eastward from the North Atlantic Ocean. Long-term variability of blocking activities shows a remarkable decreasing and weakening trend. This is perhaps reflected by a similar trend of the cold events in East Asia. Energetic and dynamical factors that are favorable and unfavorable for a specific blocking character will be explored. The explanation is accompanied with the simulation results of future climate conditions using the IPCC AR4 model outputs. The analysis is particularly valuable for enhancing the

  2. Oceanic and Climate phasing analysis across Marine Isotope Stage 3

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henry, G., III; McManus, J. F.; Curry, W. B.; Roberts, N. L.; Piotrowski, A. M.; Keigwin, L. D.

    2015-12-01

    Glacial climate oscillated between cold stadial periods similar to the Last Glacial Maximum and warmer periods more similar to today from 25,000 to 60,000 years BP, an envelop of time referred to as marine isotope stage three (MIS3). The sudden warmings (Dansgaard-Oeschger events) and ice sheet surges (Heinrich events) have long captured researchers' attention as a means of exploring significant perturbations to the climate system. The climate dynamics associated with these events have been recently elucidated throughhigh-resolution analysis of ice and sediment core archives. In particular, it has been recently demonstrated through synchronization of Greenlandic and Antarctic ice cores that abrupt climate events propagated from the Northern to Southern hemisphere. Likewise, during Heinrich events ice rafted detritus appeared in the Northern North Atlantic generally after cold stadial conditions had already been established. These results indict the ocean's conveyor as the vehicle hemispheric partitioning heat across these events. Here we test the phased response of multiple paleoproxies sensitive to circulation across these abrupt climate events through all of MIS3. Through correlation analysis of multiple paleoproxy records generated from a high accumulation sediment core taken from the Bermuda Rise, we examine the phase relationship of high latitude climate records with the kinematic circulation proxy Pa/Th, benthic d13C and d18O, SST, d18Osw, CaCO3 content, 230Th-normalized bulk and component fluxes in order to infer the sequence of change across these abrupt millennial events. We find that shifts in water mass composition precede increases in temperatures across the identified time interval, while the export of Pa relative to Th increases in tandem with changes in with Bermuda Rise SST estimates during warmings, but lags during cooling. Rapid shifts in thorium normalized carbonate flux supply secondary evidence for changes in preservation accompanying changes

  3. Fluvial response to abrupt global warming at the Palaeocene/Eocene boundary.

    PubMed

    Foreman, Brady Z; Heller, Paul L; Clementz, Mark T

    2012-11-01

    Climate strongly affects the production of sediment from mountain catchments as well as its transport and deposition within adjacent sedimentary basins. However, identifying climatic influences on basin stratigraphy is complicated by nonlinearities, feedback loops, lag times, buffering and convergence among processes within the sediment routeing system. The Palaeocene/Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) arguably represents the most abrupt and dramatic instance of global warming in the Cenozoic era and has been proposed to be a geologic analogue for anthropogenic climate change. Here we evaluate the fluvial response in western Colorado to the PETM. Concomitant with the carbon isotope excursion marking the PETM we document a basin-wide shift to thick, multistoried, sheets of sandstone characterized by variable channel dimensions, dominance of upper flow regime sedimentary structures, and prevalent crevasse splay deposits. This progradation of coarse-grained lithofacies matches model predictions for rapid increases in sediment flux and discharge, instigated by regional vegetation overturn and enhanced monsoon precipitation. Yet the change in fluvial deposition persisted long after the approximately 200,000-year-long PETM with its increased carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere, emphasizing the strong role the protracted transmission of catchment responses to distant depositional systems has in constructing large-scale basin stratigraphy. Our results, combined with evidence for increased dissolved loads and terrestrial clay export to world oceans, indicate that the transient hyper-greenhouse climate of the PETM may represent a major geomorphic 'system-clearing event', involving a global mobilization of dissolved and solid sediment loads on Earth's surface. PMID:23128230

  4. An abrupt weakening of the subpolar gyre as trigger of Little Ice Age-type episodes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moreno-Chamarro, Eduardo; Zanchettin, Davide; Lohmann, Katja; Jungclaus, Johann H.

    2016-04-01

    We investigate the mechanism of a decadal-scale weakening shift in the strength of the subpolar gyre (SPG) that is found in one among three last millennium simulations with a state-of-the-art Earth system model. The SPG shift triggers multicentennial anomalies in the North Atlantic climate driven by long-lasting internal feedbacks relating anomalous oceanic and atmospheric circulation, sea ice extent, and upper-ocean salinity in the Labrador Sea. Yet changes throughout or after the shift are not associated with a persistent weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation or shifts in the North Atlantic Oscillation. The anomalous climate state of the North Atlantic simulated after the shift agrees well with climate reconstructions from within the area, which describe a transition between a stronger and weaker SPG during the relatively warm medieval climate and the cold Little Ice Age respectively. However, model and data differ in the timing of the onset. The simulated SPG shift is caused by a rapid increase in the freshwater export from the Arctic and associated freshening in the upper Labrador Sea. Such freshwater anomaly relates to prominent thickening of the Arctic sea ice, following the cluster of relatively small-magnitude volcanic eruptions by 1600 CE. Sensitivity experiments without volcanic forcing can nonetheless produce similar abrupt events; a necessary causal link between the volcanic cluster and the SPG shift can therefore be excluded. Instead, preconditioning by internal variability explains discrepancies in the timing between the simulated SPG shift and the reconstructed estimates for the Little Ice Age onset.

  5. Impact of Climate Change on Heavy Precipitation Events : Application of Extreme Value Theory to a Future Climate Simulation over the Colorado Headwaters Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ikeda, K.; Prein, A.; Rasmussen, R.; Liu, C.; Holland, G. J.

    2012-12-01

    Heavy precipitation cause devastating warm-season floods and cool-season snow and icing hazards that impact socio-economic communities of various scales. The frequency and severity of extreme precipitation events potentially are likely to be impacted by climate change. In this study we will investigate potential change in extreme precipitation intensity in a future climate over the Colorado headwaters region based on an extreme value approach ("peak-over-threshold" approach). The data come from Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations of current and future climate conducted by the Colorado Headwaters Project (e.g., Rasmussen et al. 2011). The simulations were performed over eight years with 4, 12, and 36 km horizontal grid spacing. In the current study, we first evaluate the model ability to properly represent extreme precipitation events from the current climate simulation. Then we present changes in extreme precipitation intensity in the future climate for different seasons and over eight mountain ranges of the Colorado headwaters region. Our analyses so far have shown that the 4-km model outperformed coarser grid resolution models in representing extreme precipitation compared to Snowpack Telemetry (SNOTEL) surface observations. Overall, the 10-year return level in the future climate increased (more intense extreme precipitation) for all mountain ranges in the cool season. There was a general decrease in the 10-year return level (less intense extreme precipitation) in the warm season. The sign and magnitude of the change shows regional differences possibly related to seasonal storm tracks and characteristics. Detailed analysis from case studies will be presented to illustrate the impacts of a warmer and moister atmosphere on the microphysical structure of storm clouds and surface precipitation distribution.