Science.gov

Sample records for abrupt climate transitions

  1. Can Abrupt Seasonal Transitions be Predicted in Climate Forecasts?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kirtman, B. P.

    2014-12-01

    There is on ongoing debate in the seasonal prediction community as to whether high frequency weather statistics in climate forecasts have any inherent predictability, and ultimately prediction skill. The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) seasonal-to-interannual prediction experiment is the ideal test-bed to evaluate the predictability and prediction of weather within climate. NMME is multi-institutional multi-agency system to improve operational monthly and seasonal forecasts based on the prediction systems developed at the major US climate modeling centers (NOAA/EMC, NOAA/GFDL, NCAR, NASA) and Canada. Although currently in an experimental stage, the NMME prediction system has been providing routine real-time monthly and seasonal forecasts since August 2011 that adhere to the CPC operational schedule. In addition to the monthly data, daily output from some of the retrospective forecasts are now being archived. Based on the NMME daily output this talk evaluates the predictability and prediction of two aspects of weather within climate: (i) monsoon onset in India and in South West North America and (ii) onset of spring severe weather in the mid-west US. The analysis estimates predictability by examining how well the individual models "predict" themselves and how well they "predict" other models. Prediction quality is assessed based on comparisons with observational estimates.

  2. Transition process of abrupt climate change based on global sea surface temperature over the past century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yan, Pengcheng; Hou, Wei; Feng, Guolin

    2016-05-01

    A new detection method has been proposed to study the transition process of abrupt climate change. With this method, the climate system transiting from one stable state to another can be verified clearly. By applying this method to the global sea surface temperature over the past century, several climate changes and their processes are detected, including the start state (moment), persist time, and end state (moment). According to the spatial distribution, the locations of climate changes mainly have occurred in the Indian Ocean and western Pacific before the middle twentieth century, in the 1970s in the equatorial middle-eastern Pacific, and in the middle and southern Pacific since the end of the twentieth century. In addition, the quantitative relationship between the transition process parameters is verified in theory and practice: (1) the relationship between the rate and stability parameters is linear, and (2) the relationship between the rate and change amplitude parameters is quadratic.

  3. The role of stochastic noise in the abrupt climatic transitions of the pleistocene

    SciTech Connect

    Matteucci, G.

    1991-01-01

    Analyses of marine [delta][sup 18]O records suggest that the variations of the Earth's orbital parameters have induced and provided the timing of the Pleistocene climatic oscillations. This dissertation analyses some statistical properties of the Pleistocene climate by estimating the Probability Density Function (PDF) of the [delta][sup 18]O record. The results allow to define statistically what were the [open quotes]typical conditions[close quotes] (in a probabilistic sense) of the Quaternary, to identify the modes of the PDF as the mean glacial and interglacial climatic states, and to clarify the meaning and the abruptness of the climatic transitions. A zero-dimensional Energy Balance Model is developed. The nonlinearity of the ice albedo-temperature feedback leads to multiple steady-state equilibria. The role of stochastic perturbations and their interaction with the orbital forcing in producing the periodic and abrupt climatic transitions of the late Pleistocene are illustrated. A stochastic sensitivity analysis is used to clarify the results, especially the selective amplification of the orbitally-induced 100 kyr cycle, and the predictability of the system on the time scales of the orbital cycles. From the analysis of GCM simulations and observational zonally- averaged data a one-dimensional EBM is then developed. The strong nonlinearity of this model and the occurrence of multiple equilibria is caused by the presence of the Thin Ice Cap Instability. A discussion of the features that stochastic perturbations would introduce, follows. Finally a GCM sensitivity study to atmospheric CO[sub 2] shows how the effects of varying CO[sub 2] concentrations can be included in simple EBMs. The role that stochastic perturbations, orbital forcing, and the known past concentrations of atmospheric CO[sub 2] have played in producing the abrupt climatic transitions of the late Pleistocene is discussed.

  4. Abrupt climate change and extinction events

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crowley, Thomas J.

    1988-01-01

    There is a growing body of theoretical and empirical support for the concept of instabilities in the climate system, and indications that abrupt climate change may in some cases contribute to abrupt extinctions. Theoretical indications of instabilities can be found in a broad spectrum of climate models (energy balance models, a thermohaline model of deep-water circulation, atmospheric general circulation models, and coupled ocean-atmosphere models). Abrupt transitions can be of several types and affect the environment in different ways. There is increasing evidence for abrupt climate change in the geologic record and involves both interglacial-glacial scale transitions and the longer-term evolution of climate over the last 100 million years. Records from the Cenozoic clearly show that the long-term trend is characterized by numerous abrupt steps where the system appears to be rapidly moving to a new equilibrium state. The long-term trend probably is due to changes associated with plate tectonic processes, but the abrupt steps most likely reflect instabilities in the climate system as the slowly changing boundary conditions caused the climate to reach some threshold critical point. A more detailed analysis of abrupt steps comes from high-resolution studies of glacial-interglacial fluctuations in the Pleistocene. Comparison of climate transitions with the extinction record indicates that many climate and biotic transitions coincide. The Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction is not a candidate for an extinction event due to instabilities in the climate system. It is quite possible that more detailed comparisons and analysis will indicate some flaws in the climate instability-extinction hypothesis, but at present it appears to be a viable candidate as an alternate mechanism for causing abrupt environmental changes and extinctions.

  5. Implications of abrupt climate change.

    PubMed Central

    Alley, Richard B.

    2004-01-01

    Records of past climates contained in ice cores, ocean sediments, and other archives show that large, abrupt, widespread climate changes have occurred repeatedly in the past. These changes were especially prominent during the cooling into and warming out of the last ice age, but persisted into the modern warm interval. Changes have especially affected water availability in warm regions and temperature in cold regions, but have affected almost all climatic variables across much or all of the Earth. Impacts of climate changes are smaller if the changes are slower or more-expected. The rapidity of abrupt climate changes, together with the difficulty of predicting such changes, means that impacts on the health of humans, economies and ecosystems will be larger if abrupt climate changes occur. Most projections of future climate include only gradual changes, whereas paleoclimatic data plus models indicate that abrupt changes remain possible; thus, policy is being made based on a view of the future that may be optimistic. PMID:17060975

  6. Revisiting Lake Hämelsee: reconstructing abrupt Lateglacial climate transitions using state- of-the-art palaeoclimatological proxies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Engels, Stefan; Hoek, Wim; Lane, Christine; Sachse, Dirk; Wagner-Cremer, Friederike

    2015-04-01

    Lake Hämelsee (Germany) is one of the northernmost sites in NW Europe that has varved sediments throughout large parts of its Lateglacial and Early Holocene sediment sequence. Previous research on this site has shown its potential, in terms of chronological resolution and palaeoecological reconstructions, for reconstructing the abrupt transitions into and out of the Younger Dryas, the last cold period of the last glacial. The site was revisited during a 1-week summer school for Early Stage Researchers (2013), within the INTIMATE Example training and research project, supported by EU Cost Action ES0907. Two overlapping sediment sequences were retrieved from the centre of the lake during the summer school. These sediments have since formed the basis for follow-up research projects, which have sparked the collaboration of around 30 researchers in 12 laboratories across Europe. A chronological framework for the core has been composed from a combination of varve counting, radiocarbon dating and tephrochronology. Tephrostratigraphic correlations allow direct correlation and precise comparison of the record to marine and ice core records from the North Atlantic region, and other terrestrial European archives. Furthermore, the core is has been subjected to multiple sedimentological (e.g. XRF, loss-on-ignition), geochemical (e.g. lipid biomarkers, GDGTs) and palaeoecological (e.g. pollen, chironomids) proxy-based reconstructions of past environmental and climatic conditions. The results provide important insights into the nature of the abrupt climate transitions of the Lateglacial and Early Holocene, both locally and on a continental scale. The INTIMATE Example participants: Illaria Baneschi, Achim Brauer, Christopher Bronk Ramsey, Renee de Bruijn, Siwan Davies, Aritina Haliuc, Katalin Hubay, Gwydion Jones, Meike Müller, Johanna Menges, Josef Merkt, Tom Peters, Francien Peterse, Anneke ter Schure, Kathrin Schuetrumpf, Richard Staff, Falko Turner, Valerie van den Bos.

  7. Approaching the Edge of Abrupt Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramadhin, C.; Yi, C.

    2015-12-01

    The phenomenon of Abrupt Climate Change (ACC) became evident as paleoclimate data analyses began revealing that Earth's climate has the ability to rapidly switch from one state to the next in just a few decades after thresholds are crossed. Previously paleo-climatologists thought these switches were gradual but now there is growing concern to identify thresholds and the dominant feedback mechanisms that propel systems toward thresholds. Current human civilization relies heavily on climate stability and ACC threatens immense disruption with potentially disastrous consequences for all ecosystems. Therefore, prediction of the climate system's approach to threshold values would prove vital for the resilience of civilization through development of appropriate adaptation strategies when that shift occurs. Numerous studies now establish that earth systems are experiencing dramatic changes both by system interactions and anthropogenic sources adding urgency for comprehensive knowledge of tipping point identification. Despite this, predictions are difficult due to the immensity of interactions among feedback mechanisms. In this paper, we attempt to narrow this broad spectrum of critical feedback mechanisms by reviewing several publications on role of feedbacks in initiating past climate transitions establishing the most critical ones and significance in current climate changes. Using a compilation of paleoclimate datasets we compared the rates of deglaciations with that of glacial inceptions, which are approximately 5-10 times slower. We hypothesize that the critical feedbacks are unique to each type of transition such that warmings are dominated by the ice-albedo feedback while coolings are a combination of temperature - CO2 and temperature-precipitation followed by the ice-albedo feedbacks. Additionally, we propose the existence of a commonality in the dominant trigger feedbacks for astronomical and millennial timescale abrupt climate shifts and as such future studies

  8. Analysis of abrupt transitions in ecological systems

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The occurrence and causes of abrupt transitions, thresholds, or regime shifts between ecosystem states are of great concern and the likelihood of such transitions is increasing for many ecological systems. General understanding of abrupt transitions has been advanced by theory, but hindered by the l...

  9. Abrupt climate change: can society cope?

    PubMed

    Hulme, Mike

    2003-09-15

    Consideration of abrupt climate change has generally been incorporated neither in analyses of climate-change impacts nor in the design of climate adaptation strategies. Yet the possibility of abrupt climate change triggered by human perturbation of the climate system is used to support the position of both those who urge stronger and earlier mitigative action than is currently being contemplated and those who argue that the unknowns in the Earth system are too large to justify such early action. This paper explores the question of abrupt climate change in terms of its potential implications for society, focusing on the UK and northwest Europe in particular. The nature of abrupt climate change and the different ways in which it has been defined and perceived are examined. Using the example of the collapse of the thermohaline circulation (THC), the suggested implications for society of abrupt climate change are reviewed; previous work has been largely speculative and has generally considered the implications only from economic and ecological perspectives. Some observations about the implications from a more social and behavioural science perspective are made. If abrupt climate change simply implies changes in the occurrence or intensity of extreme weather events, or an accelerated unidirectional change in climate, the design of adaptation to climate change can proceed within the existing paradigm, with appropriate adjustments. Limits to adaptation in some sectors or regions may be reached, and the costs of appropriate adaptive behaviour may be large, but strategy can develop on the basis of a predicted long-term unidirectional change in climate. It would be more challenging, however, if abrupt climate change implied a directional change in climate, as, for example, may well occur in northwest Europe following a collapse of the THC. There are two fundamental problems for society associated with such an outcome: first, the future changes in climate currently being

  10. The abrupt climate change near 4,400 yr BP on the cultural transition in Yuchisi, China and its global linkage

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Jianjun; Sun, Liguang; Chen, Liqi; Xu, Libin; Wang, Yuhong; Wang, Xinming

    2016-01-01

    Extreme climatic events have profound impacts on human society. Here we present the results of a study of organic biomarkers within a sedimentary section at the archaeological site of Yuchisi, eastern China, in order to reconstruct climatic variability during the Dawenkou (5,050–4,400 yr BP) and Longshan (4,400–4,000 yr BP) cultures. At ~4,400 yr BP, within the cultural transition horizon, abrupt changes in biomarkers, such as the fatty acid ratio C18:2/C18:0, 2C31/(C27 + C29), n-C18-ol and n-C30-ol, indicate the occurrence of local climate changes over the course of a few decades. These changes occurred during the transition from the Holocene warm period to a subsequent cold period which lasted for the following 600 years. This climatic shift has been recorded at numerous sites worldwide, and it is likely to have been the main cause of the widespread collapse of many isolated cultures at that time. The palaeoclimatic and archaeological data from the Yuchisi sediments may provide new insights into the relationship between climate change and prehistoric cultural transitions. PMID:27283832

  11. The abrupt climate change near 4,400 yr BP on the cultural transition in Yuchisi, China and its global linkage.

    PubMed

    Wang, Jianjun; Sun, Liguang; Chen, Liqi; Xu, Libin; Wang, Yuhong; Wang, Xinming

    2016-01-01

    Extreme climatic events have profound impacts on human society. Here we present the results of a study of organic biomarkers within a sedimentary section at the archaeological site of Yuchisi, eastern China, in order to reconstruct climatic variability during the Dawenkou (5,050-4,400 yr BP) and Longshan (4,400-4,000 yr BP) cultures. At ~4,400 yr BP, within the cultural transition horizon, abrupt changes in biomarkers, such as the fatty acid ratio C18:2/C18:0, 2C31/(C27 + C29), n-C18-ol and n-C30-ol, indicate the occurrence of local climate changes over the course of a few decades. These changes occurred during the transition from the Holocene warm period to a subsequent cold period which lasted for the following 600 years. This climatic shift has been recorded at numerous sites worldwide, and it is likely to have been the main cause of the widespread collapse of many isolated cultures at that time. The palaeoclimatic and archaeological data from the Yuchisi sediments may provide new insights into the relationship between climate change and prehistoric cultural transitions. PMID:27283832

  12. The abrupt climate change near 4,400 yr BP on the cultural transition in Yuchisi, China and its global linkage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Jianjun; Sun, Liguang; Chen, Liqi; Xu, Libin; Wang, Yuhong; Wang, Xinming

    2016-06-01

    Extreme climatic events have profound impacts on human society. Here we present the results of a study of organic biomarkers within a sedimentary section at the archaeological site of Yuchisi, eastern China, in order to reconstruct climatic variability during the Dawenkou (5,050–4,400 yr BP) and Longshan (4,400–4,000 yr BP) cultures. At ~4,400 yr BP, within the cultural transition horizon, abrupt changes in biomarkers, such as the fatty acid ratio C18:2/C18:0, 2C31/(C27 + C29), n-C18-ol and n-C30-ol, indicate the occurrence of local climate changes over the course of a few decades. These changes occurred during the transition from the Holocene warm period to a subsequent cold period which lasted for the following 600 years. This climatic shift has been recorded at numerous sites worldwide, and it is likely to have been the main cause of the widespread collapse of many isolated cultures at that time. The palaeoclimatic and archaeological data from the Yuchisi sediments may provide new insights into the relationship between climate change and prehistoric cultural transitions.

  13. The Science of Abrupt Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Overpeck, J. T.

    2002-12-01

    The issue of abrupt climate change has been highlighted by a recent National Academy of Sciences (NRC) study as one of the most troubling potential aspects of future global climate change. The science of abrupt climate change originated in the discovery and study of huge climatic shifts during the last glacial period, particularly in and around the North Atlantic. We now know that ocean thermohaline circulation and circum-North Atlantic climate can change in hard-to-anticipate non-linear ways, and that this type of threat is still very real for the future. At the same time, attention is increasingly being focused on other, equally serious, types of potential "warm climate" abrupt climate change. Worldwide, there is abundant paleoenvironmental evidence for decades-long "megadroughts" that, for example, seemingly occurred on average once or twice a millennium in North America. Dramatic shifts in El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability have also occurred in the past, and could be linked to the occurrence of past megadroughts. Evidence also exists that supports the assertion that the frequency of major floods, and/or landfalls by the largest tropical storms, can change significantly and abruptly. However, as with abrupt shifts in ENSO or drought frequency/duration, we still have only an imperfect observational record, and worse, little proven basis for prediction. This is one reason why abrupt change poses a significant threat to technologically-advanced, as well as developing countries. Major abrupt sea level rise is also a major threat, but again, the paleoclimate record indicates that our understanding of processes related to ice cap melting are not as good as we would like. Given that abrupt climatic changes could occur even in the absence of significant anthropogenic climate change, society should act soon to reduce vulnerabilities. However, the most troubling aspect of the issue is that global warming will likely act to increase the probability of

  14. The Nonlinear Response of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean-Atmosphere System to Periodic Variations in Insolation and its Association with the Abrupt Climate Transitions during the Quaternary.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lopes, P. G.

    2015-12-01

    The evidences of climate changes during the Quaternary are abundant but the physical mechanisms behind the climate transitions are controversial. The theory of Milankovitch takes into account the periodic orbital variations and the solar radiation received by the Earth as the main explanation for the glacial-interglacial cycles. However, some gaps in the theory still remain. In this study, we propose elucidating some of these gaps by approaching the Equatorial Pacific Ocean as a large oscillator, capable of triggering climate changes in different temporal scales. A mathematical model representing El Ninõ-like phenomena, based on Duffing equation and modulated by the astronomical cycle of 100 ka, was used to simulate the variability of the equatorial Pacific climate system over the last 2 Ma. The physical configuration of the Pacific Ocean, expressed in the equation, explains the temporal limit of the glacial-interglacial cycles. According to the simulation results, consistent with paleoclimate records, the amplification of the effects of the gradual variation of the Earth's orbit eccentricity - another unclear question - is due to the feedback mechanism of the Pacific ocean-atmosphere system, which responds non-linearly to small variations in insolation forcing and determines the ENSO-like phase (warm or cold) at different time scales and different intensities. The approach proposed here takes into account that the abrupt transitions between the ENSO-like phases, and the consequent changes in the sea surface temperature (SST) along the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, produce reactions that act as secondary causes of the temperature fluctuations that result in a glaciation (or deglaciation) - as the drastic change on the rate of evaporation/precipitation around the globe, and the increase (or decrease) of the atmospheric CO2 absorption by the phytoplankton. The transitional behavior between the warm and the cold phases, according to the presented model, is enhanced as

  15. Mid-Holocene erosive episodes in tufa deposits from Trabaque Canyon, central Spain, as a result of abrupt arid climate transitions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Domínguez-Villar, David; Vázquez-Navarro, Juan A.; Carrasco, Rosa M.

    2012-08-01

    During the Holocene a series of tufa sediments were deposited from a karstic spring along the Trabaque Canyon, central Spain. A long-term lowering of the water table caused the location of the spring to be displaced from the upper sector of the canyon during the early Holocene to the lower sector in the late Holocene. This progressive shift was in response to decreased precipitation in the region. The depositional environments and their geomorphologic relationships were characterized. Thus, five morphosedimentary units (MSUs) were identified within the Holocene tufa deposits. Erosive episodes were recognized between MSUs and, as most of the MSUs partially overlap, the older ones are perched in relation to the younger ones. The chronology of the MSUs is based on 14C dates, and stable isotopes and total organic carbon content provided environmental information during the period of tufa sedimentation. The successive dissection episodes in the Trabaque Canyon tufa deposits took place during transitioning climate conditions from the relatively wet early Holocene to the more arid late Holocene. During this transitional period in the mid-Holocene, wet phases alternated with more arid conditions, causing the largest hydrological regime gradients in the Holocene. Thus, the four erosive episodes causing tufa dissection in Trabaque during the Holocene are interpreted as the result of abrupt transitional periods towards arid conditions.

  16. Abrupt climate-independent fire regime changes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pausas, Juli G.; Keeley, Jon E.

    2014-01-01

    Wildfires have played a determining role in distribution, composition and structure of many ecosystems worldwide and climatic changes are widely considered to be a major driver of future fire regime changes. However, forecasting future climatic change induced impacts on fire regimes will require a clearer understanding of other drivers of abrupt fire regime changes. Here, we focus on evidence from different environmental and temporal settings of fire regimes changes that are not directly attributed to climatic changes. We review key cases of these abrupt fire regime changes at different spatial and temporal scales, including those directly driven (i) by fauna, (ii) by invasive plant species, and (iii) by socio-economic and policy changes. All these drivers might generate non-linear effects of landscape changes in fuel structure; that is, they generate fuel changes that can cross thresholds of landscape continuity, and thus drastically change fire activity. Although climatic changes might contribute to some of these changes, there are also many instances that are not primarily linked to climatic shifts. Understanding the mechanism driving fire regime changes should contribute to our ability to better assess future fire regimes.

  17. The Arctic Grand Challenge: Abrupt Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilkniss, P. E.

    2003-12-01

    Trouble in polar paradise (Science, 08/30/02), significant changes in the Arctic environment are scientifically documented (R.E. Moritz et al. ibid.). More trouble, lots more, "abrupt climate change," (R. B. Alley, et al. Science 03/28/03). R. Corell, Arctic Climate Impact Assessment team (ACIA), "If you want to see what will happen in the rest of the world 25 years from now just look what's happening in the Arctic," (Arctic Council meeting, Iceland, 08/03). What to do? Make abrupt Arctic climate change a grand challenge for the IPY-4 and beyond! Scientifically:Describe the "state" of the Arctic climate system as succinctly as possible and accept it as the point of departure.Develop a hypothesis and criteria what constitutes "abrupt climate change," in the Arctic that can be tested with observations. Observations: Bring to bear existing observations and coordinate new investments in observations through an IPY-4 scientific management committee. Make the new Barrow, Alaska, Global Climate Change Research Facility a major U.S. contribution and focal point for the IPY-4 in the U.S Arctic. Arctic populations, Native peoples: The people of the North are living already, daily, with wrenching change, encroaching on their habitats and cultures. For them "the earth is faster now," (I. Krupnik and D. Jolly, ARCUS, 2002). From a political, economic, social and entirely realistic perspective, an Arctic grand challenge without the total integration of the Native peoples in this effort cannot succeed. Therefore: Communications must be established, and the respective Native entities must be approached with the determination to create well founded, well functioning, enduring partnerships. In the U.S. Arctic, Barrow with its long history of involvement and active support of science and with the new global climate change research facility should be the focal point of choice Private industry: Resource extraction in the Arctic followed by oil and gas consumption, return the combustion

  18. Towards Greenland Glaciation: cumulative or abrupt transition?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tan, Ning; Dumas, Christophe; Ladant, Jean-Baptiste; Ramstein, Gilles; Contoux, Camille

    2016-04-01

    During the mid-Pliocene warming period (3-3.3 Ma BP), global annual mean temperature is warmer by 2-3 degree than pre-industrial. Greenland ice sheet volume is supposed to be a 50% reduction compared to nowadays [Haywood et al. 2010]. Around 2.7-2.6 Ma BP, just ~ 500 kyr after the warming peak of mid-Pliocene, there is already full Greenland Glaciation [Lunt et al. 2008]. How does Greenland ice sheet evolve from a half size to a glaciation level during 3 Ma - 2.5 Ma? Data show that there is a decreasing trend of atmospheric CO2 concentration from 3 Ma to 2.5 Ma [Seki et al.2010; Bartoli et al. 2011; Martinez et al. 2015]. However, a recent study [Contoux et al. 2015] suggests that a lowering of CO2 is not sufficient to initiate a perennial glaciation on Greenland and must be combined to low summer insolation, to preserve the ice sheet during insolation maximum, suggesting a cumulative process. In order to diagnose whether the ice sheet build-up is an abrupt event or a cumulative process, we carry on, for the first time, a transient simulation of climate and ice sheet evolutions from 3 Ma to 2.5 Ma. This strategy enables to investigate waxing and waning of the ice sheet during several orbital cycles. To reach this goal, we use a tri-dimensional interpolation method designed by Ladant et al. (2014) which combines the evolution of CO2 concentration, orbital parameters and Greenland ice sheet sizes in an off-line way by interpolating snapshots simulations. Thanks to this new method, we can build a transient like simulation through asynchronous coupling between GCM and ice sheet model. With this method, we may consistently answer the question of the build-up of Greenland: abrupt or cumulative process.

  19. Catalogue of abrupt shifts in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate models.

    PubMed

    Drijfhout, Sybren; Bathiany, Sebastian; Beaulieu, Claudie; Brovkin, Victor; Claussen, Martin; Huntingford, Chris; Scheffer, Marten; Sgubin, Giovanni; Swingedouw, Didier

    2015-10-27

    Abrupt transitions of regional climate in response to the gradual rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are notoriously difficult to foresee. However, such events could be particularly challenging in view of the capacity required for society and ecosystems to adapt to them. We present, to our knowledge, the first systematic screening of the massive climate model ensemble informing the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, and reveal evidence of 37 forced regional abrupt changes in the ocean, sea ice, snow cover, permafrost, and terrestrial biosphere that arise after a certain global temperature increase. Eighteen out of 37 events occur for global warming levels of less than 2°, a threshold sometimes presented as a safe limit. Although most models predict one or more such events, any specific occurrence typically appears in only a few models. We find no compelling evidence for a general relation between the overall number of abrupt shifts and the level of global warming. However, we do note that abrupt changes in ocean circulation occur more often for moderate warming (less than 2°), whereas over land they occur more often for warming larger than 2°. Using a basic proportion test, however, we find that the number of abrupt shifts identified in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenarios is significantly larger than in other scenarios of lower radiative forcing. This suggests the potential for a gradual trend of destabilization of the climate with respect to such shifts, due to increasing global mean temperature change. PMID:26460042

  20. Catalogue of abrupt shifts in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate models

    PubMed Central

    Drijfhout, Sybren; Bathiany, Sebastian; Beaulieu, Claudie; Brovkin, Victor; Claussen, Martin; Huntingford, Chris; Scheffer, Marten; Sgubin, Giovanni; Swingedouw, Didier

    2015-01-01

    Abrupt transitions of regional climate in response to the gradual rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are notoriously difficult to foresee. However, such events could be particularly challenging in view of the capacity required for society and ecosystems to adapt to them. We present, to our knowledge, the first systematic screening of the massive climate model ensemble informing the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, and reveal evidence of 37 forced regional abrupt changes in the ocean, sea ice, snow cover, permafrost, and terrestrial biosphere that arise after a certain global temperature increase. Eighteen out of 37 events occur for global warming levels of less than 2°, a threshold sometimes presented as a safe limit. Although most models predict one or more such events, any specific occurrence typically appears in only a few models. We find no compelling evidence for a general relation between the overall number of abrupt shifts and the level of global warming. However, we do note that abrupt changes in ocean circulation occur more often for moderate warming (less than 2°), whereas over land they occur more often for warming larger than 2°. Using a basic proportion test, however, we find that the number of abrupt shifts identified in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenarios is significantly larger than in other scenarios of lower radiative forcing. This suggests the potential for a gradual trend of destabilization of the climate with respect to such shifts, due to increasing global mean temperature change. PMID:26460042

  1. Abrupt glacial climate shifts controlled by ice sheet changes.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Xu; Lohmann, Gerrit; Knorr, Gregor; Purcell, Conor

    2014-08-21

    During glacial periods of the Late Pleistocene, an abundance of proxy data demonstrates the existence of large and repeated millennial-scale warming episodes, known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. This ubiquitous feature of rapid glacial climate change can be extended back as far as 800,000 years before present (BP) in the ice core record, and has drawn broad attention within the science and policy-making communities alike. Many studies have been dedicated to investigating the underlying causes of these changes, but no coherent mechanism has yet been identified. Here we show, by using a comprehensive fully coupled model, that gradual changes in the height of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets (NHISs) can alter the coupled atmosphere-ocean system and cause rapid glacial climate shifts closely resembling DO events. The simulated global climate responses--including abrupt warming in the North Atlantic, a northward shift of the tropical rainbelts, and Southern Hemisphere cooling related to the bipolar seesaw--are generally consistent with empirical evidence. As a result of the coexistence of two glacial ocean circulation states at intermediate heights of the ice sheets, minor changes in the height of the NHISs and the amount of atmospheric CO2 can trigger the rapid climate transitions via a local positive atmosphere-ocean-sea-ice feedback in the North Atlantic. Our results, although based on a single model, thus provide a coherent concept for understanding the recorded millennial-scale variability and abrupt climate changes in the coupled atmosphere-ocean system, as well as their linkages to the volume of the intermediate ice sheets during glacials. PMID:25119027

  2. Abrupt glacial climate shifts controlled by ice sheet changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Xu; Lohmann, Gerrit; Knorr, Gregor; Purcell, Conor

    2014-08-01

    During glacial periods of the Late Pleistocene, an abundance of proxy data demonstrates the existence of large and repeated millennial-scale warming episodes, known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. This ubiquitous feature of rapid glacial climate change can be extended back as far as 800,000 years before present (BP) in the ice core record, and has drawn broad attention within the science and policy-making communities alike. Many studies have been dedicated to investigating the underlying causes of these changes, but no coherent mechanism has yet been identified. Here we show, by using a comprehensive fully coupled model, that gradual changes in the height of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets (NHISs) can alter the coupled atmosphere-ocean system and cause rapid glacial climate shifts closely resembling DO events. The simulated global climate responses--including abrupt warming in the North Atlantic, a northward shift of the tropical rainbelts, and Southern Hemisphere cooling related to the bipolar seesaw--are generally consistent with empirical evidence. As a result of the coexistence of two glacial ocean circulation states at intermediate heights of the ice sheets, minor changes in the height of the NHISs and the amount of atmospheric CO2 can trigger the rapid climate transitions via a local positive atmosphere-ocean-sea-ice feedback in the North Atlantic. Our results, although based on a single model, thus provide a coherent concept for understanding the recorded millennial-scale variability and abrupt climate changes in the coupled atmosphere-ocean system, as well as their linkages to the volume of the intermediate ice sheets during glacials.

  3. The Role of the Tropics in Abrupt Climate Changes

    SciTech Connect

    Fedorov, Alexey

    2013-12-07

    Topics addressed include: abrupt climate changes and ocean circulation in the tropics; what controls the ocean thermal structure in the tropics; a permanent El Niño in paleoclimates; the energetics of the tropical ocean.

  4. Sensitivity and Thresholds of Ecosystems to Abrupt Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peteet, D. M.; Peteet, D. M.

    2001-12-01

    Rapid vegetational change is a hallmark of past abrupt climate change, as evidenced from Younger Dryas records in Europe, eastern North America, and the Pacific North American rim. The potential response of future ecosystems to abrupt climate change is targeted, with a focus on particular changes in the hydrological cycle. The vulnerability of ecosystems is notable when particular shifts cross thresholds of precipitation and temperature, as many plants and animals are adapted to specific climatic "windows". Significant forest species compositional changes occur at ecotonal boundaries, which are often the first locations to record a climatic response. Historical forest declines have been linked to stress, and even Pleistocene extinctions have been associated with human interaction at times of rapid climatic shifts. Environmental extremes are risky for reproductive stages, and result in nonlinearities. The role of humans in association with abrupt climate change suggests that many ecosystems may cross thresholds from which they will find it difficult to recover. Sectors particularly vulnerable will be reviewed.

  5. International policy implications of abrupt climate change scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Molitor, M.R.

    1997-12-31

    New theoretical and empirical evidence supports the view that in the recent past [Holocene] abrupt climate changes occurred over very short [decadal] time periods. One leading possibility of future changes involves the North Atlantic Ocean conveyor that transfers warm surface waters from the equator to northern latitudes and helps maintain Europe`s climate. The predicted abrupt climate change scenario theorizes that the conveyor may be modified as a result of disruption of the thermohaline circulation driving North, Atlantic Deep Water. This would lead, the theory contends, to a rapid cooling of Europe`s climate. In light of the EPCC`s 1995 Second Assessment Report conclusion that there is a {open_quotes}discernible{close_quotes} human influence on the global climate system, there are many emerging questions concerning possible abrupt climate change scenarios.

  6. Wildfire responses to abrupt climate change in North America

    PubMed Central

    Marlon, J. R.; Bartlein, P. J.; Walsh, M. K.; Harrison, S. P.; Brown, K. J.; Edwards, M. E.; Higuera, P. E.; Power, M. J.; Anderson, R. S.; Briles, C.; Brunelle, A.; Carcaillet, C.; Daniels, M.; Hu, F. S.; Lavoie, M.; Long, C.; Minckley, T.; Richard, P. J. H.; Scott, A. C.; Shafer, D. S.; Tinner, W.; Umbanhowar, C. E.; Whitlock, C.

    2009-01-01

    It is widely accepted, based on data from the last few decades and on model simulations, that anthropogenic climate change will cause increased fire activity. However, less attention has been paid to the relationship between abrupt climate changes and heightened fire activity in the paleorecord. We use 35 charcoal and pollen records to assess how fire regimes in North America changed during the last glacial–interglacial transition (15 to 10 ka), a time of large and rapid climate changes. We also test the hypothesis that a comet impact initiated continental-scale wildfires at 12.9 ka; the data do not support this idea, nor are continent-wide fires indicated at any time during deglaciation. There are, however, clear links between large climate changes and fire activity. Biomass burning gradually increased from the glacial period to the beginning of the Younger Dryas. Although there are changes in biomass burning during the Younger Dryas, there is no systematic trend. There is a further increase in biomass burning after the Younger Dryas. Intervals of rapid climate change at 13.9, 13.2, and 11.7 ka are marked by large increases in fire activity. The timing of changes in fire is not coincident with changes in human population density or the timing of the extinction of the megafauna. Although these factors could have contributed to fire-regime changes at individual sites or at specific times, the charcoal data indicate an important role for climate, and particularly rapid climate change, in determining broad-scale levels of fire activity. PMID:19190185

  7. Sea-ice switches and abrupt climate change.

    PubMed

    Gildor, Hezi; Tziperman, Eli

    2003-09-15

    We propose that past abrupt climate changes were probably a result of rapid and extensive variations in sea-ice cover. We explain why this seems a perhaps more likely explanation than a purely thermohaline circulation mechanism. We emphasize that because of the significant influence of sea ice on the climate system, it seems that high priority should be given to developing ways for reconstructing high-resolution (in space and time) sea-ice extent for past climate-change events. If proxy data can confirm that sea ice was indeed the major player in past abrupt climate-change events, it seems less likely that such dramatic abrupt changes will occur due to global warming, when extensive sea-ice cover will not be present. PMID:14558902

  8. Controls on the abruptness of gravel-sand transitions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Venditti, J. G.; Church, M. A.; Lamb, M. P.; Domarad, N.; Rennie, C. D.

    2014-12-01

    As gravel-bedded rivers fine downstream, they characteristically exhibit an abrupt transition from gravel- to sand-bed. This is the only abrupt transition in grain-size that occurs in the fluvial system and has attracted considerable attention. A number of competing theories have been proposed to account for the abruptness of the transition, including base-level control, attrition of ~10mm gravel to produce sand, and sediment sorting processes. The prevailing theory for the emergence of abrupt transitions is size selective sorting of bimodal sediment wherein gravel deposits due to downstream declining shear stress, fining the bedload until a sand-bed emerges. We explored this hypothesis by examining grain-size, shear stress, gravel mobility and sand suspension thresholds through the gravel-sand transition (GST) of the Fraser River, British Columbia. The Fraser GST is an arrested gravel wedge with patches of gravel downstream of the wedge forming a diffuse extension. There is an abrupt change in bed slope through the transition that leads to an abrupt change in shear stress. The GST, bed-slope change and backwater caused by the ocean are all coincident spatially, which enhances the sharpness of the GST. Interestingly, the bimodal reach of the river occurs downstream of the GST and exhibits no downstream gradients in shear stress, suspended sediment flux, gravel mobility or sand suspension thresholds. This calls into question the prevailing theory for the emergence of an abrupt GST by size selective sorting. We provide evidence, both empirical and theoretical, that suggests the emergence of an abrupt GST is caused by rapid deposition of sand when fine gravel deposits. We argue that the emergence of gravel-sand transitions is a consequence of gravel-bedded rivers adopting a steeper slope than sand-bedded rivers. The abruptness arises because the bed slope required to convey the gravel load fixes the distal location of a terminal gravel wedge, and once the river has

  9. Abrupt climate change and thermohaline circulation: Mechanisms and predictability

    PubMed Central

    Marotzke, Jochem

    2000-01-01

    The ocean's thermohaline circulation has long been recognized as potentially unstable and has consequently been invoked as a potential cause of abrupt climate change on all timescales of decades and longer. However, fundamental aspects of thermohaline circulation changes remain poorly understood. PMID:10677464

  10. Abrupt climate change and thermohaline circulation: mechanisms and predictability.

    PubMed

    Marotzke, J

    2000-02-15

    The ocean's thermohaline circulation has long been recognized as potentially unstable and has consequently been invoked as a potential cause of abrupt climate change on all timescales of decades and longer. However, fundamental aspects of thermohaline circulation changes remain poorly understood. PMID:10677464

  11. The role of the thermohaline circulation in abrupt climate change.

    PubMed

    Clark, Peter U; Pisias, Nicklas G; Stocker, Thomas F; Weaver, Andrew J

    2002-02-21

    The possibility of a reduced Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to increases in greenhouse-gas concentrations has been demonstrated in a number of simulations with general circulation models of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. But it remains difficult to assess the likelihood of future changes in the thermohaline circulation, mainly owing to poorly constrained model parameterizations and uncertainties in the response of the climate system to greenhouse warming. Analyses of past abrupt climate changes help to solve these problems. Data and models both suggest that abrupt climate change during the last glaciation originated through changes in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to small changes in the hydrological cycle. Atmospheric and oceanic responses to these changes were then transmitted globally through a number of feedbacks. The palaeoclimate data and the model results also indicate that the stability of the thermohaline circulation depends on the mean climate state. PMID:11859359

  12. Abrupt climate change and transient climates during the Paleogene: a marine perspective

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zachos, J. C.; Lohmann, K. C.; Walker, J. C.; Wise, S. W.

    1993-01-01

    Detailed investigations of high latitude sequences recently collected by the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) indicate that periods of rapid climate change often culminated in brief transient climates, with more extreme conditions than subsequent long term climates. Two examples of such events have been identified in the Paleogene; the first in latest Paleocene time in the middle of a warming trend that began several million years earlier: the second in earliest Oligocene time near the end of a Middle Eocene to Late Oligocene global cooling trend. Superimposed on the earlier event was a sudden and extreme warming of both high latitude sea surface and deep ocean waters. Imbedded in the latter transition was an abrupt decline in high latitude temperatures and the brief appearance of a full size continental ice-sheet on Antarctica. In both cases the climate extremes were not stable, lasting for less than a few hundred thousand years, indicating a temporary or transient climate state. Geochemical and sedimentological evidence suggest that both Paleogene climate events were accompanied by reorganizations in ocean circulation, and major perturbations in marine productivity and the global carbon cycle. The Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum was marked by reduced oceanic turnover and decreases in global delta 13C and in marine productivity, while the Early Oligocene glacial maximum was accompanied by intensification of deep ocean circulation and elevated delta 13C and productivity. It has been suggested that sudden changes in climate and/or ocean circulation might occur as a result of gradual forcing as certain physical thresholds are exceeded. We investigate the possibility that sudden reorganizations in ocean and/or atmosphere circulation during these abrupt transitions generated short-term positive feedbacks that briefly sustained these transient climatic states.

  13. Response of seafloor ecosystems to abrupt global climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moffitt, Sarah E.; Hill, Tessa M.; Roopnarine, Peter D.; Kennett, James P.

    2015-04-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to decrease oceanic oxygen (O2) concentrations, with potentially significant effects on marine ecosystems. Geologically recent episodes of abrupt climatic warming provide opportunities to assess the effects of changing oxygenation on marine communities. Thus far, this knowledge has been largely restricted to investigations using Foraminifera, with little being known about ecosystem-scale responses to abrupt, climate-forced deoxygenation. We here present high-resolution records based on the first comprehensive quantitative analysis, to our knowledge, of changes in marine metazoans (Mollusca, Echinodermata, Arthropoda, and Annelida; >5,400 fossils and trace fossils) in response to the global warming associated with the last glacial to interglacial episode. The molluscan archive is dominated by extremophile taxa, including those containing endosymbiotic sulfur-oxidizing bacteria (Lucinoma aequizonatum) and those that graze on filamentous sulfur-oxidizing benthic bacterial mats (Alia permodesta). This record, from 16,100 to 3,400 y ago, demonstrates that seafloor invertebrate communities are subject to major turnover in response to relatively minor inferred changes in oxygenation (>1.5 to <0.5 mLṡL-1 [O2]) associated with abrupt (<100 y) warming of the eastern Pacific. The biotic turnover and recovery events within the record expand known rates of marine biological recovery by an order of magnitude, from <100 to >1,000 y, and illustrate the crucial role of climate and oceanographic change in driving long-term successional changes in ocean ecosystems.

  14. Response of seafloor ecosystems to abrupt global climate change

    PubMed Central

    Moffitt, Sarah E.; Hill, Tessa M.; Roopnarine, Peter D.; Kennett, James P.

    2015-01-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to decrease oceanic oxygen (O2) concentrations, with potentially significant effects on marine ecosystems. Geologically recent episodes of abrupt climatic warming provide opportunities to assess the effects of changing oxygenation on marine communities. Thus far, this knowledge has been largely restricted to investigations using Foraminifera, with little being known about ecosystem-scale responses to abrupt, climate-forced deoxygenation. We here present high-resolution records based on the first comprehensive quantitative analysis, to our knowledge, of changes in marine metazoans (Mollusca, Echinodermata, Arthropoda, and Annelida; >5,400 fossils and trace fossils) in response to the global warming associated with the last glacial to interglacial episode. The molluscan archive is dominated by extremophile taxa, including those containing endosymbiotic sulfur-oxidizing bacteria (Lucinoma aequizonatum) and those that graze on filamentous sulfur-oxidizing benthic bacterial mats (Alia permodesta). This record, from 16,100 to 3,400 y ago, demonstrates that seafloor invertebrate communities are subject to major turnover in response to relatively minor inferred changes in oxygenation (>1.5 to <0.5 mL⋅L−1 [O2]) associated with abrupt (<100 y) warming of the eastern Pacific. The biotic turnover and recovery events within the record expand known rates of marine biological recovery by an order of magnitude, from <100 to >1,000 y, and illustrate the crucial role of climate and oceanographic change in driving long-term successional changes in ocean ecosystems. PMID:25825727

  15. Response of seafloor ecosystems to abrupt global climate change.

    PubMed

    Moffitt, Sarah E; Hill, Tessa M; Roopnarine, Peter D; Kennett, James P

    2015-04-14

    Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to decrease oceanic oxygen (O2) concentrations, with potentially significant effects on marine ecosystems. Geologically recent episodes of abrupt climatic warming provide opportunities to assess the effects of changing oxygenation on marine communities. Thus far, this knowledge has been largely restricted to investigations using Foraminifera, with little being known about ecosystem-scale responses to abrupt, climate-forced deoxygenation. We here present high-resolution records based on the first comprehensive quantitative analysis, to our knowledge, of changes in marine metazoans (Mollusca, Echinodermata, Arthropoda, and Annelida; >5,400 fossils and trace fossils) in response to the global warming associated with the last glacial to interglacial episode. The molluscan archive is dominated by extremophile taxa, including those containing endosymbiotic sulfur-oxidizing bacteria (Lucinoma aequizonatum) and those that graze on filamentous sulfur-oxidizing benthic bacterial mats (Alia permodesta). This record, from 16,100 to 3,400 y ago, demonstrates that seafloor invertebrate communities are subject to major turnover in response to relatively minor inferred changes in oxygenation (>1.5 to <0.5 mL⋅L(-1) [O2]) associated with abrupt (<100 y) warming of the eastern Pacific. The biotic turnover and recovery events within the record expand known rates of marine biological recovery by an order of magnitude, from <100 to >1,000 y, and illustrate the crucial role of climate and oceanographic change in driving long-term successional changes in ocean ecosystems. PMID:25825727

  16. Detecting abrupt climate changes on different time scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matyasovszky, István

    2011-10-01

    Two concepts are introduced for detecting abrupt climate changes. In the first case, the sampling frequency of climate data is high as compared to the frequency of climate events examined. The method is based on a separation of trend and noise in the data and is applicable to any dataset that satisfies some mild smoothness and statistical dependence conditions for the trend and the noise, respectively. We say that an abrupt change occurs when the first derivative of the trend function has a discontinuity and the task is to identify such points. The technique is applied to Northern Hemisphere temperature data from 1850 to 2009, Northern Hemisphere temperature data from proxy data, a.d. 200-1995 and Holocene δ18O values going back to 11,700 years BP. Several abrupt changes are detected that are, among other things, beneficial for determining the Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age and Holocene Climate Optimum. In the second case, the sampling frequency is low relative to the frequency of climate events studied. A typical example includes Dansgaard-Oeschger events. The methodology used here is based on a refinement of autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic models. The key element of this approach is the volatility that characterises the time-varying variance, and abrupt changes are defined by high volatilities. The technique applied to δ18O values going back to 122,950 years BP is suitable for identifying DO events. These two approaches for the two cases are closely related despite the fact that at first glance, they seem quite different.

  17. Gradual and abrupt changes during the Mid-Pleistocene Transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ford, Heather L.; Sosdian, Sindia M.; Rosenthal, Yair; Raymo, Maureen E.

    2016-09-01

    During the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT), the dominant glacial-interglacial cyclicity as inferred from the marine δ18O records of benthic foraminifera (δ18Obenthic) changed from 41 kyr to 100 kyr years in the absence of a comparable change in orbital forcing. Currently, only two Mg/Ca-derived, high-resolution bottom water temperature (BWT) records exist that can be used with δ18Obenthic records to separate temperature and ice volume signals over the Pleistocene. However, these two BWT records suggest a different pattern of climate change occurred over the MPT-a record from North Atlantic DSDP Site 607 suggests BWT decreased with no long-term trend in ice volume over the MPT, while South Pacific ODP Site 1123 suggests that BWT has been relatively stable over the last 1.5 Myr but that there was an abrupt increase in ice volume at ∼900 kyr. In this paper we attempt to reconcile these two views of climate change across the MPT. Specifically, we investigated the suggestion that the secular BWT trend obtained from Mg/Ca measurements on Cibicidoides wuellerstorfi and Oridorsalis umbonatus species from N. Atlantic Site 607 is biased by the possible influence of Δ[CO32-] on Mg/Ca values in these species by generating a low-resolution BWT record using Uvigerina spp., a genus whose Mg/Ca values are not thought to be influenced by Δ[CO32-]. We find a long-term BWT cooling of ∼2-3°C occurred from 1500 to ∼500 kyr in the N. Atlantic, consistent with the previously generated C. wuellerstorfi and O. umbonatus BWT record. We also find that changes in ocean circulation likely influenced δ18Obenthic, BWT, and δ18Oseawater records across the MPT. N. Atlantic BWT cooling starting at ∼1.2 Ma, presumably driven by high-latitude cooling, may have been a necessary precursor to a threshold response in climate-ice sheet behavior at ∼900 ka. At that point, a modest increase in ice volume and thermohaline reorganization may have caused enhanced sensitivity to the 100 kyr

  18. Abrupt climate change and collapse of deep-sea ecosystems

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Yasuhara, Moriaki; Cronin, T. M.; Demenocal, P.B.; Okahashi, H.; Linsley, B.K.

    2008-01-01

    We investigated the deep-sea fossil record of benthic ostracodes during periods of rapid climate and oceanographic change over the past 20,000 years in a core from intermediate depth in the northwestern Atlantic. Results show that deep-sea benthic community "collapses" occur with faunal turnover of up to 50% during major climatically driven oceanographic changes. Species diversity as measured by the Shannon-Wiener index falls from 3 to as low as 1.6 during these events. Major disruptions in the benthic communities commenced with Heinrich Event 1, the Inter-Aller??d Cold Period (IACP: 13.1 ka), the Younger Dryas (YD: 12.9-11.5 ka), and several Holocene Bond events when changes in deep-water circulation occurred. The largest collapse is associated with the YD/IACP and is characterized by an abrupt two-step decrease in both the upper North Atlantic Deep Water assemblage and species diversity at 13.1 ka and at 12.2 ka. The ostracode fauna at this site did not fully recover until ???8 ka, with the establishment of Labrador Sea Water ventilation. Ecologically opportunistic slope species prospered during this community collapse. Other abrupt community collapses during the past 20 ka generally correspond to millennial climate events. These results indicate that deep-sea ecosystems are not immune to the effects of rapid climate changes occurring over centuries or less. ?? 2008 by The National Academy of Sciences of the USA.

  19. Paleoclimate. Synchronization of North Pacific and Greenland climates preceded abrupt deglacial warming.

    PubMed

    Praetorius, Summer K; Mix, Alan C

    2014-07-25

    Some proposed mechanisms for transmission of major climate change events between the North Pacific and North Atlantic predict opposing patterns of variations; others suggest synchronization. Resolving this conflict has implications for regulation of poleward heat transport and global climate change. New multidecadal-resolution foraminiferal oxygen isotope records from the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) reveal sudden shifts between intervals of synchroneity and asynchroneity with the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) δ(18)O record over the past 18,000 years. Synchronization of these regions occurred 15,500 to 11,000 years ago, just prior to and throughout the most abrupt climate transitions of the last 20,000 years, suggesting that dynamic coupling of North Pacific and North Atlantic climates may lead to critical transitions in Earth's climate system. PMID:25061208

  20. Abrupt climate change and the decline of Indus urbanism

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hodell, D. A.; Dixit, Y.; Petrie, C. A.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change has been suggested as a cause for the decline of the cities of the Indus Civilization, which is believed to have begun ~4.0 to 3.9 ky B.P. Previous studies have centered on paleoclimatic records obtained from areas outside the geographic limits of the Indus Civilization, raising questions about their suitability for evaluating past climate-cultural linkages. Here we report a detailed climate record from paleolake Kotla Dahar, Haryana (28°00'095'' N, 76°57'173'' E), located at the eastern edge of the distribution of Indus settlements and ~100km to the east of the city-site of Rakhigarhi in NW India. Regional hydrologic changes are inferred using oxygen-isotope measurements of gastropod aragonite from a 2.88-m sediment section. A permanent ~4‰ increase in δ18O of shell aragonite occurred at ~4.1±0.1 ky B.P., marking an abrupt increase in evaporation/precipitation in the lake catchment. These data provide evidence for a weakening of the monsoon and shift toward drier climate on the plains of northwest (NW) India at ~4.1±0.1 ky B.P. Decreased monsoon rainfall at this time may have been linked to increased ENSO variability, and supports a possible role of climate in the transformation of the Indus Civilization from an urbanized (mature or urban Indus) to a rural (post-urban) society.

  1. Dynamic response of desert wetlands to abrupt climate change

    PubMed Central

    Springer, Kathleen B.; Manker, Craig R.; Pigati, Jeffrey S.

    2015-01-01

    Desert wetlands are keystone ecosystems in arid environments and are preserved in the geologic record as groundwater discharge (GWD) deposits. GWD deposits are inherently discontinuous and stratigraphically complex, which has limited our understanding of how desert wetlands responded to past episodes of rapid climate change. Previous studies have shown that wetlands responded to climate change on glacial to interglacial timescales, but their sensitivity to short-lived climate perturbations is largely unknown. Here, we show that GWD deposits in the Las Vegas Valley (southern Nevada, United States) provide a detailed and nearly complete record of dynamic hydrologic changes during the past 35 ka (thousands of calibrated 14C years before present), including cycles of wetland expansion and contraction that correlate tightly with climatic oscillations recorded in the Greenland ice cores. Cessation of discharge associated with rapid warming events resulted in the collapse of entire wetland systems in the Las Vegas Valley at multiple times during the late Quaternary. On average, drought-like conditions, as recorded by widespread erosion and the formation of desert soils, lasted for a few centuries. This record illustrates the vulnerability of desert wetland flora and fauna to abrupt climate change. It also shows that GWD deposits can be used to reconstruct paleohydrologic conditions at millennial to submillennial timescales and informs conservation efforts aimed at protecting these fragile ecosystems in the face of anthropogenic warming. PMID:26554007

  2. Dynamic response of desert wetlands to abrupt climate change.

    PubMed

    Springer, Kathleen B; Manker, Craig R; Pigati, Jeffrey S

    2015-11-24

    Desert wetlands are keystone ecosystems in arid environments and are preserved in the geologic record as groundwater discharge (GWD) deposits. GWD deposits are inherently discontinuous and stratigraphically complex, which has limited our understanding of how desert wetlands responded to past episodes of rapid climate change. Previous studies have shown that wetlands responded to climate change on glacial to interglacial timescales, but their sensitivity to short-lived climate perturbations is largely unknown. Here, we show that GWD deposits in the Las Vegas Valley (southern Nevada, United States) provide a detailed and nearly complete record of dynamic hydrologic changes during the past 35 ka (thousands of calibrated (14)C years before present), including cycles of wetland expansion and contraction that correlate tightly with climatic oscillations recorded in the Greenland ice cores. Cessation of discharge associated with rapid warming events resulted in the collapse of entire wetland systems in the Las Vegas Valley at multiple times during the late Quaternary. On average, drought-like conditions, as recorded by widespread erosion and the formation of desert soils, lasted for a few centuries. This record illustrates the vulnerability of desert wetland flora and fauna to abrupt climate change. It also shows that GWD deposits can be used to reconstruct paleohydrologic conditions at millennial to submillennial timescales and informs conservation efforts aimed at protecting these fragile ecosystems in the face of anthropogenic warming. PMID:26554007

  3. Dynamic response of desert wetlands to abrupt climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Springer, Kathleen; Manker, Craig; Pigati, Jeff

    2015-01-01

    Desert wetlands are keystone ecosystems in arid environments and are preserved in the geologic record as groundwater discharge (GWD) deposits. GWD deposits are inherently discontinuous and stratigraphically complex, which has limited our understanding of how desert wetlands responded to past episodes of rapid climate change. Previous studies have shown that wetlands responded to climate change on glacial to interglacial timescales, but their sensitivity to short-lived climate perturbations is largely unknown. Here, we show that GWD deposits in the Las Vegas Valley (southern Nevada, United States) provide a detailed and nearly complete record of dynamic hydrologic changes during the past 35 ka (thousands of calibrated 14C years before present), including cycles of wetland expansion and contraction that correlate tightly with climatic oscillations recorded in the Greenland ice cores. Cessation of discharge associated with rapid warming events resulted in the collapse of entire wetland systems in the Las Vegas Valley at multiple times during the late Quaternary. On average, drought-like conditions, as recorded by widespread erosion and the formation of desert soils, lasted for a few centuries. This record illustrates the vulnerability of desert wetland flora and fauna to abrupt climate change. It also shows that GWD deposits can be used to reconstruct paleohydrologic conditions at millennial to submillennial timescales and informs conservation efforts aimed at protecting these fragile ecosystems in the face of anthropogenic warming.

  4. Abrupt climate shift in the Western Mediterranean Sea

    PubMed Central

    Schroeder, K.; Chiggiato, J.; Bryden, H. L.; Borghini, M.; Ben Ismail, S.

    2016-01-01

    One century of oceanographic measurements has evidenced gradual increases in temperature and salinity of western Mediterranean water masses, even though the vertical stratification has basically remained unchanged. Starting in 2005, the basic structure of the intermediate and deep layers abruptly changed. We report here evidence of reinforced thermohaline variability in the deep western basin with significant dense water formation events producing large amounts of warmer, saltier and denser water masses than ever before. We provide a detailed chronological order to these changes, giving an overview of the new water masses and following their route from the central basin interior to the east (toward the Tyrrhenian) and toward the Atlantic Ocean. As a consequence of this climate shift, new deep waters outflowing through Gibraltar will impact the North Atlantic in terms of salt and heat input. In addition, modifications in the Mediterranean abyssal ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles are to be expected. PMID:26965790

  5. Abrupt climate shift in the Western Mediterranean Sea.

    PubMed

    Schroeder, K; Chiggiato, J; Bryden, H L; Borghini, M; Ben Ismail, S

    2016-01-01

    One century of oceanographic measurements has evidenced gradual increases in temperature and salinity of western Mediterranean water masses, even though the vertical stratification has basically remained unchanged. Starting in 2005, the basic structure of the intermediate and deep layers abruptly changed. We report here evidence of reinforced thermohaline variability in the deep western basin with significant dense water formation events producing large amounts of warmer, saltier and denser water masses than ever before. We provide a detailed chronological order to these changes, giving an overview of the new water masses and following their route from the central basin interior to the east (toward the Tyrrhenian) and toward the Atlantic Ocean. As a consequence of this climate shift, new deep waters outflowing through Gibraltar will impact the North Atlantic in terms of salt and heat input. In addition, modifications in the Mediterranean abyssal ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles are to be expected. PMID:26965790

  6. Abrupt climate shift in the Western Mediterranean Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schroeder, K.; Chiggiato, J.; Bryden, H. L.; Borghini, M.; Ben Ismail, S.

    2016-03-01

    One century of oceanographic measurements has evidenced gradual increases in temperature and salinity of western Mediterranean water masses, even though the vertical stratification has basically remained unchanged. Starting in 2005, the basic structure of the intermediate and deep layers abruptly changed. We report here evidence of reinforced thermohaline variability in the deep western basin with significant dense water formation events producing large amounts of warmer, saltier and denser water masses than ever before. We provide a detailed chronological order to these changes, giving an overview of the new water masses and following their route from the central basin interior to the east (toward the Tyrrhenian) and toward the Atlantic Ocean. As a consequence of this climate shift, new deep waters outflowing through Gibraltar will impact the North Atlantic in terms of salt and heat input. In addition, modifications in the Mediterranean abyssal ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles are to be expected.

  7. Abrupt shifts in phenology and vegetation productivity under climate extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, Xuanlong; Huete, Alfredo; Moran, Susan; Ponce-Campos, Guillermo; Eamus, Derek

    2015-10-01

    Amplification of the hydrologic cycle as a consequence of global warming is predicted to increase climate variability and the frequency and severity of droughts. Recent large-scale drought and flooding over numerous continents provide unique opportunities to understand ecosystem responses to climatic extremes. In this study, we investigated the impacts of the early 21st century extreme hydroclimatic variations in southeastern Australia on phenology and vegetation productivity using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Enhanced Vegetation Index and Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index. Results revealed dramatic impacts of drought and wet extremes on vegetation dynamics, with abrupt between year changes in phenology. Drought resulted in widespread reductions or collapse in the normal patterns of seasonality such that in many cases there was no detectable phenological cycle during drought years. Across the full range of biomes examined, we found semiarid ecosystems to exhibit the largest sensitivity to hydroclimatic variations, exceeding that of arid and humid ecosystems. This result demonstrated the vulnerability of semiarid ecosystems to climatic extremes and potential loss of ecosystem resilience with future mega-drought events. A skewed distribution of hydroclimatic sensitivity with aridity is of global biogeochemical significance because it suggests that current drying trends in semiarid regions will reduce hydroclimatic sensitivity and suppress the large carbon sink that has been reported during recent wet periods (e.g., 2011 La Niña).

  8. Relaxation Oscillations as a Mechanism of Abrupt Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marchal, O.; Jackson, C.; Nilsson, J.; Paul, A.; Stocker, T.

    2007-12-01

    Climate variability at the millennial time scale is difficult to rationalize, as the frequency 0.001 1/yr falls near the middle of a wide gap in the spectrum of external forcing on the climate system (between the low-frequency orbital components and the high-frequency tidal components). This situation prompted interest in the possibility for the climate system to undergo self-sustained or self-excited oscillations. Our contribution will comprise two parts. First, we will review elements from the theory of non-linear vibrations that provide a framework for the discussion of the fundamental mechanisms responsible for millennial-scale climate variability. Particular emphasis will be put on the self-sustained oscillations that occur in physical systems with one degree of freedom. In such systems self-sustained oscillations arise from the nonlinear dependence of the damping force on velocity. In the limit of very large nonlinearity, the oscillator stores energy for a relatively long period of time and releases this energy in a relatively short time, i.e., the oscillations are strongly asymmetric (relaxation oscillations). Second, we will examine the self-sustained oscillations of the meridional overturning circulation simulated by an ocean circulation model when subject to large freshwater forcing (salt addition at low latitudes and salt extraction at high latitudes). A scaling analysis provides evidence that these oscillations can be fundamentally interpreted as relaxation oscillations : the model ocean stores potential energy in the form of an unstable vertical temperature gradient for a relatively long period of time (phase of reduced MOC) and converts this potential energy into kinetic energy (phase of intense MOC) when the unstable vertical temperature gradient dominates the stable vertical salinity gradient in the density stratification. The merits and weaknesses of the hypothesis of relaxation oscillations as a mechanism of abrupt climate change will be discussed.

  9. Precise interpolar phasing of abrupt climate change during the last ice age

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    WAIS Divide Project Members; Buizert, Christo; Adrian, Betty M.; Ahn, Jinho; Albert, Mary; Alley, Richard B.; Baggenstos, Daniel; Bauska, Thomas K.; Bay, Ryan C.; Bencivengo, Brian B.; Bentley, Charles R.; Brook, Edward J.; Chellman, Nathan J.; Clow, Gary D.; Cole-Dai, Jihong; Conway, Howard; Cravens, Eric; Cuffey, Kurt M.; Dunbar, Nelia W.; Edwards, Jon S.; Fegyveresi, John M.; Ferris, Dave G.; Fitzpatrick, Joan J.; Fudge, T. J.; Gibson, Chris J.; Gkinis, Vasileios; Goetz, Joshua J.; Gregory, Stephanie; Hargreaves, Geoffrey Mill; Iverson, Nels; Johnson, Jay A.; Jones, Tyler R.; Kalk, Michael L.; Kippenhan, Matthew J.; Koffman, Bess G.; Kreutz, Karl; Kuhl, Tanner W.; Lebar, Donald A.; Lee, James E.; Marcott, Shaun A.; Markle, Bradley R.; Maselli, Olivia J.; McConnell, Joseph R.; McGwire, Kenneth C.; Mitchell, Logan E.; Mortensen, Nicolai B.; Neff, Peter D.; Nishiizumi, Kunihiko; Nunn, Richard M.; Orsi, Anais J.; Pasteris, Daniel R.; Pedro, Joel B.; Pettit, Erin C.; Price, P. Buford; Priscu, John C.; Rhodes, Rachael H.; Rosen, Julia L.; Schauer, Andrew J.; Schoenemann, Spruce W.; Sendelbach, Paul J.; Severinghaus, Jeffrey P.; Shturmakov, Alexander J.; Sigl, Michael; Slawny, Kristina R.; Souney, Joseph M.; Sowers, Todd A.; Spencer, Matthew K.; Steig, Eric J.; Taylor, Kendrick C.; Twickler, Mark S.; Vaughn, Bruce H.; Voigt, Donald E.; Waddington, Edwin D.; Welten, Kees C.; Wendricks, Anthony W.; White, James W. C.; Winstrup, Mai; Wong, Gifford J.; Woodruff, Thomas E.

    2015-01-01

    The last glacial period exhibited abrupt Dansgaard–Oeschger climatic oscillations, evidence of which is preserved in a variety of Northern Hemisphere palaeoclimate archives1. Ice cores show that Antarctica cooled during the warm phases of the Greenland Dansgaard–Oeschger cycle and vice versa2, 3, suggesting an interhemispheric redistribution of heat through a mechanism called the bipolar seesaw4, 5, 6. Variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength are thought to have been important, but much uncertainty remains regarding the dynamics and trigger of these abrupt events7, 8, 9. Key information is contained in the relative phasing of hemispheric climate variations, yet the large, poorly constrained difference between gas age and ice age and the relatively low resolution of methane records from Antarctic ice cores have so far precluded methane-based synchronization at the required sub-centennial precision2, 3,10. Here we use a recently drilled high-accumulation Antarctic ice core to show that, on average, abrupt Greenland warming leads the corresponding Antarctic cooling onset by 218 ± 92 years (2σ) for Dansgaard–Oeschger events, including the Bølling event; Greenland cooling leads the corresponding onset of Antarctic warming by 208 ± 96 years. Our results demonstrate a north-to-south directionality of the abrupt climatic signal, which is propagated to the Southern Hemisphere high latitudes by oceanic rather than atmospheric processes. The similar interpolar phasing of warming and cooling transitions suggests that the transfer time of the climatic signal is independent of the AMOC background state. Our findings confirm a central role for ocean circulation in the bipolar seesaw and provide clear criteria for assessing hypotheses and model simulations of Dansgaard–Oeschger dynamics.

  10. Precise interpolar phasing of abrupt climate change during the last ice age.

    PubMed

    2015-04-30

    The last glacial period exhibited abrupt Dansgaard-Oeschger climatic oscillations, evidence of which is preserved in a variety of Northern Hemisphere palaeoclimate archives. Ice cores show that Antarctica cooled during the warm phases of the Greenland Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle and vice versa, suggesting an interhemispheric redistribution of heat through a mechanism called the bipolar seesaw. Variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength are thought to have been important, but much uncertainty remains regarding the dynamics and trigger of these abrupt events. Key information is contained in the relative phasing of hemispheric climate variations, yet the large, poorly constrained difference between gas age and ice age and the relatively low resolution of methane records from Antarctic ice cores have so far precluded methane-based synchronization at the required sub-centennial precision. Here we use a recently drilled high-accumulation Antarctic ice core to show that, on average, abrupt Greenland warming leads the corresponding Antarctic cooling onset by 218 ± 92 years (2σ) for Dansgaard-Oeschger events, including the Bølling event; Greenland cooling leads the corresponding onset of Antarctic warming by 208 ± 96 years. Our results demonstrate a north-to-south directionality of the abrupt climatic signal, which is propagated to the Southern Hemisphere high latitudes by oceanic rather than atmospheric processes. The similar interpolar phasing of warming and cooling transitions suggests that the transfer time of the climatic signal is independent of the AMOC background state. Our findings confirm a central role for ocean circulation in the bipolar seesaw and provide clear criteria for assessing hypotheses and model simulations of Dansgaard-Oeschger dynamics. PMID:25925479

  11. Climate oscillations and abrupt changes in C14 data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuznetsova, T. V.; Tsirulnik, L. B.

    2004-01-01

    The radiocarbon series are analysed by a method of non-linear spectral analysis to detect time intervals of appearance of non-stationary oscillations of large amplitude, and the times of abrupt changes of their oscillation regime. The analysis shows that the most powerful cycles of the spectra can be interpreted in terms of periods (and their respective higher harmonics) of astronomical origin. An intense stationary sinusoid from the spectrum with period T˜6500 yr, the 4th harmonic of the period of equinox precession, correlates with the time variations of the geomagnetic dipole moment. The most powerful non-stationary sinusoid with mean period T=2230 yr, reflects oscillations in C14 data related to the non-dipole part of the geomagnetic field, and correlates with periods of climate warming/cooling. The apparent regularities that can be inferred in the interaction of such two powerful cycles (i.e. stationary and non-stationary parts of the uniform mechanism of the geomagnetic field generation) permit to forecast a tendency of the climate changes. A possible physical mechanism is presented based on a possible transformation, of some signals caused by perturbation of the tidal forces of astronomical origin (that can arise along the orbit of the Earth), into effects that control geophysical systems through small variations of the dissipative parameters of a dynamo system.

  12. Influence of external forcings on abrupt millennial-scale climate changes: a statistical modelling study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mitsui, Takahito; Crucifix, Michel

    2016-07-01

    The last glacial period was punctuated by a series of abrupt climate shifts, the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. The frequency of DO events varied in time, supposedly because of changes in background climate conditions. Here, the influence of external forcings on DO events is investigated with statistical modelling. We assume two types of simple stochastic dynamical systems models (double-well potential-type and oscillator-type), forced by the northern hemisphere summer insolation change and/or the global ice volume change. The model parameters are estimated by using the maximum likelihood method with the NGRIP Ca^{2+} record. The stochastic oscillator model with at least the ice volume forcing reproduces well the sample autocorrelation function of the record and the frequency changes of warming transitions in the last glacial period across MISs 2, 3, and 4. The model performance is improved with the additional insolation forcing. The BIC scores also suggest that the ice volume forcing is relatively more important than the insolation forcing, though the strength of evidence depends on the model assumption. Finally, we simulate the average number of warming transitions in the past four glacial periods, assuming the model can be extended beyond the last glacial, and compare the result with an Iberian margin sea-surface temperature (SST) record (Martrat et al. in Science 317(5837): 502-507, 2007). The simulation result supports the previous observation that abrupt millennial-scale climate changes in the penultimate glacial (MIS 6) are less frequent than in the last glacial (MISs 2-4). On the other hand, it suggests that the number of abrupt millennial-scale climate changes in older glacial periods (MISs 6, 8, and 10) might be larger than inferred from the SST record.

  13. Simulating the vegetation response in western Europe to abrupt climate changes under glacial background conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Woillez, M.-N.; Kageyama, M.; Combourieu-Nebout, N.; Krinner, G.

    2013-03-01

    The last glacial period has been punctuated by two types of abrupt climatic events, the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) and Heinrich (HE) events. These events, recorded in Greenland ice and in marine sediments, involved changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and led to major changes in the terrestrial biosphere. Here we use the dynamical global vegetation model ORCHIDEE to simulate the response of vegetation to abrupt changes in the AMOC strength. We force ORCHIDEE offline with outputs from the IPSL_CM4 general circulation model, in which the AMOC is forced to change by adding freshwater fluxes in the North Atlantic. We investigate the impact of a collapse and recovery of the AMOC, at different rates, and focus on Western Europe, where many pollen records are available for comparison. The impact of an AMOC collapse on the European mean temperatures and precipitations simulated by the GCM is relatively small but sufficient to drive an important regression of forests and expansion of grasses in ORCHIDEE, in qualitative agreement with pollen data for an HE event. On the contrary, a run with a rapid shift of the AMOC to a hyperactive state of 30 Sv, mimicking the warming phase of a DO event, does not exhibit a strong impact on the European vegetation compared to the glacial control state. For our model, simulating the impact of an HE event thus appears easier than simulating the abrupt transition towards the interstadial phase of a DO. For both a collapse or a recovery of the AMOC, the vegetation starts to respond to climatic changes immediately but reaches equilibrium about 200 yr after the climate equilibrates, suggesting a possible bias in the climatic reconstructions based on pollen records, which assume equilibrium between climate and vegetation. However, our study does not take into account vegetation feedbacks on the atmosphere.

  14. Arctic Ocean freshwater as a trigger for abrupt climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bradley, Raymond; Condron, Alan; Coletti, Anthony

    2016-04-01

    The cause of the Younger Dryas cooling remains unresolved despite decades of debate. Current arguments focus on either freshwater from Glacial Lake Agassiz drainage through the St Lawrence or the MacKenzie river systems. High resolution ocean modeling suggests that freshwater delivered to the North Atlantic from the Arctic Ocean through Fram Strait would have had more of an impact on Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) than freshwater from the St Lawrence. This has been interpreted as an argument for a MacKenzie River /Lake Agassiz freshwater source. However, it is important to note that although the modeling identifies Fram Strait as the optimum location for delivery of freshwater to disrupt the AMOC, this does not mean the freshwater source came from Lake Agassiz. Another potential source of freshwater is the Arctic Ocean ice cover itself. During the LGM, ice cover was extremely thick - many tens of meters in the Canada Basin (at least), resulting in a hiatus in sediment deposition there. Extreme ice thickness was related to a stagnant circulation, very low temperatures and continuous accumulation of snow on top of a base of sea-ice. This resulted in a large accumulation of freshwater in the Arctic Basin. As sea-level rose and a more modern circulation regime became established in the Arctic, this freshwater was released from the Arctic Ocean through Fram Strait, leading to extensive sea-ice formation in the North Atlantic (Greenland Sea) and a major reduction in the AMOC. Here we present new model results and a review of the paleoceanographic evidence to support this hypothesis. The bottom line is that the Arctic Ocean was likely a major player in causing abrupt climate change in the past, via its influence on the AMOC. Although we focus here on the Younger Dryas, the Arctic Ocean has been repeatedly isolated from the world ocean during glacial periods of the past. When these periods of isolation ended, it is probable that there were significant

  15. Holocene Abrupt Climate Change Over NW Iran: The Hand That Rocked The Cradle Of Civilization?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharifi, A.; Pourmand, A.; Canuel, E. A.; Ferer-Tyler, E.; Peterson, L. C.; Aichner, B.; Feakins, S. J.; Daryaee, T.; Djamali, M.; Naderi Beni, A.; Lahijani, H. A. K.; Swart, P. K.

    2014-12-01

    Human civilizations around the globe have been influenced by abrupt climate change throughout the Holocene. The paucity of high-resolution palaeoclimate data from the "Cradle of Civilization" in West Asia, however, has limited our ability to evaluate the potential role of Holocene climate variability on early societies. We present a high-resolution, multi-proxy reconstruction of aeolian input and palaeoenvironmental conditions based on a 13-kyr record of ombrotrophic (rain fed) peat from Neor Lake in Northwest Iran. Variations in relative abundances of major and trace elements, total organic carbon (TOC), stable carbon isotopes of TOC (δ13CTOC) and compound-specific leaf wax hydrogen isotope (δD) compositions suggest dry and dusty conditions prevailed during the Younger Dryas, and a substantial increase in atmospheric dust loading and decrease in moisture availability occurred between the early and late Holocene. In addition, variations in radiogenic Sr-Nd-Hf isotopic composition and REE anomalies in samples from Neor peat core indicate significant shifts occurred in source contributions of eolian material to the study area between the Younger Dryas, early and late Holocene. Time-series analysis of aeolian input to NE Iran reveals periodicities at 540, 1050 and 2940 years that correspond with solar variability and internal climate feedbacks identified in other records of Holocene climate change from the northern hemisphere. Transitions in major Mesopotamian and Persian civilizations, including the collapse of the Akkadian empire at 4,200 yr BP, the fall of the Ur III empire at 3,955 yr BP, the fall of Elam empire at 2,500 yr BP and the demise of the Achaemenids around 2,280 BP overlap with major dust events from this study. Several other episodes of enhanced atmospheric dust, however, are not reflected in historical or archaeological accounts of the late Holocene. This indicates either abrupt climate change was not the sole driver of societal changes in the

  16. Dansgaard-Oeschger Cycles in the Gulf of Mexico: A Clue to Abrupt Climate Change?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hill, H. W.; Flower, B. P.; Quinn, T. M.

    2003-12-01

    Recent evidence suggests that low-latitude climate variability plays a significant role in abrupt climate change during the last glacial cycle, particularly during the deglaciation. However, there have been few low-latitude marine records that cover the abrupt climate transitions known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) cycles that occurred during Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3; 24-57 ka). Defining the extent of D-O cyclicity in the low latitudes may provide insight into the mechanisms that are responsible for abrupt climate transitions. A 32-m sediment core (MD02-2551) from the Orca Basin, Gulf of Mexico, collected aboard the R/V Marion Dufresne in July 2002, provides new information to address the role of subtropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature (SST) in relation to high-latitude climate change during MIS 3. The location of Orca Basin at the mouth of the Mississippi River is also ideal to record variations in meltwater input from the Laurentide Ice Sheet during the last glacial period. Radiocarbon dates on a 6 m interval of the core, which covers ~30-40 ka, suggests that the average sedimentation rate is >50 cm/1000 years, allowing for 30-year resolution sampling. Paired δ 18O and Mg/Ca data on the planktic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber (pink variety) provide SST and δ 18Oseawater estimates during a series of D-O cycles. Four distinct cycles exist in the isotopic data, which have a similar pattern and likely correspond to Interstadials 5-8, as defined in records from the Greenland ice core. These cycles have an amplitude of >1 ‰ , with values consistently reaching -2 ‰ during Interstadial 8, one of the warmest and longest Interstadials recorded in Greenland ice. The Mg-derived SST has a reduced variability with respect to the isotopic data, suggesting that the large δ 18O shifts are a function of changes in salinity, probably due to a combination of evaporation/precipitation processes and meltwater input from the Laurentide Ice Sheet during Interstadial

  17. Impact of abrupt deglacial climate change on tropical Atlantic subsurface temperatures

    PubMed Central

    Schmidt, Matthew W.; Chang, Ping; Hertzberg, Jennifer E.; Them, Theodore R.; Ji, Link; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.

    2012-01-01

    Both instrumental data analyses and coupled ocean-atmosphere models indicate that Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability is tightly linked to abrupt tropical North Atlantic (TNA) climate change through both atmospheric and oceanic processes. Although a slowdown of AMOC results in an atmospheric-induced surface cooling in the entire TNA, the subsurface experiences an even larger warming because of rapid reorganizations of ocean circulation patterns at intermediate water depths. Here, we reconstruct high-resolution temperature records using oxygen isotope values and Mg/Ca ratios in both surface- and subthermocline-dwelling planktonic foraminifera from a sediment core located in the TNA over the last 22 ky. Our results show significant changes in the vertical thermal gradient of the upper water column, with the warmest subsurface temperatures of the last deglacial transition corresponding to the onset of the Younger Dryas. Furthermore, we present new analyses of a climate model simulation forced with freshwater discharge into the North Atlantic under Last Glacial Maximum forcings and boundary conditions that reveal a maximum subsurface warming in the vicinity of the core site and a vertical thermal gradient change at the onset of AMOC weakening, consistent with the reconstructed record. Together, our proxy reconstructions and modeling results provide convincing evidence for a subsurface oceanic teleconnection linking high-latitude North Atlantic climate to the tropical Atlantic during periods of reduced AMOC across the last deglacial transition. PMID:22908256

  18. Impact of abrupt deglacial climate change on tropical Atlantic subsurface temperatures.

    PubMed

    Schmidt, Matthew W; Chang, Ping; Hertzberg, Jennifer E; Them, Theodore R; Ji, Link; J, Link; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L

    2012-09-01

    Both instrumental data analyses and coupled ocean-atmosphere models indicate that Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability is tightly linked to abrupt tropical North Atlantic (TNA) climate change through both atmospheric and oceanic processes. Although a slowdown of AMOC results in an atmospheric-induced surface cooling in the entire TNA, the subsurface experiences an even larger warming because of rapid reorganizations of ocean circulation patterns at intermediate water depths. Here, we reconstruct high-resolution temperature records using oxygen isotope values and Mg/Ca ratios in both surface- and subthermocline-dwelling planktonic foraminifera from a sediment core located in the TNA over the last 22 ky. Our results show significant changes in the vertical thermal gradient of the upper water column, with the warmest subsurface temperatures of the last deglacial transition corresponding to the onset of the Younger Dryas. Furthermore, we present new analyses of a climate model simulation forced with freshwater discharge into the North Atlantic under Last Glacial Maximum forcings and boundary conditions that reveal a maximum subsurface warming in the vicinity of the core site and a vertical thermal gradient change at the onset of AMOC weakening, consistent with the reconstructed record. Together, our proxy reconstructions and modeling results provide convincing evidence for a subsurface oceanic teleconnection linking high-latitude North Atlantic climate to the tropical Atlantic during periods of reduced AMOC across the last deglacial transition. PMID:22908256

  19. Abrupt transitions to a cold North Atlantic in the late Holocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Geirsdóttir, Áslaug; Miller, Gifford; Larsen, Darren; Florian, Christopher; Pendleton, Simon

    2015-04-01

    The Holocene provides a time interval with boundary conditions similar to present, except for greenhouse gas concentrations. Recent high-resolution Northern Hemisphere records show general cooling related to orbital terms through the late Holocene, but also highly non-linear abrupt departures of centennial scale summer cold periods. These abrupt departures are evident within the last two millennia (the transitions between the Roman Warm Period (RWP, ~2,000 yr BP), the Dark Ages Cold Period (DACP, ~500-900 years AD), the Medieval Warm Period (MWP, 1000-1200 years AD) and the Little Ice Age (LIA, ~1300-1900 AD). A series of new, high-resolution and securely dated lake records from Iceland also show abrupt climate departures over the past 2 ka, characterized by shifts to persistent cold summers and an expanded cryosphere. Despite substantial differences in catchment-specific processes that dominate the lake records, the multi-proxy reconstructions are remarkably similar. After nearly a millennium with little evidence of significant climate shifts, the beginning of the first millennium AD is characterized by renewed summer cooling that leads to an expanding cryosphere. Slow summer cooling over the first five centuries is succeeded by widespread substantial cooling, with evidence for substantial expansion of glaciers and ice caps throughout our field areas between 530 and 900 AD, and an accompanying reduction in vegetation cover across much of Iceland that led to widespread landscape instability. These data suggest that the North Atlantic system began a transition into a new cold state early in the first millennium AD, which was amplified after 500 AD, until it was interrupted by warmer Medieval times between ~1000 and 1250 AD. Although severe soil erosion in Iceland is frequently associated with human settlement dated to 871 ±2 AD our reconstructions indicate that soil erosion began several centuries before settlement, during the DACP, whereas for several centuries

  20. Links between early Holocene ice-sheet decay, sea-level rise and abrupt climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Törnqvist, Torbjörn E.; Hijma, Marc P.

    2012-09-01

    The beginning of the current interglacial period, the Holocene epoch, was a critical part of the transition from glacial to interglacial climate conditions. This period, between about 12,000 and 7,000 years ago, was marked by the continued retreat of the ice sheets that had expanded through polar and temperate regions during the preceding glacial. This meltdown led to a dramatic rise in sea level, punctuated by short-lived jumps associated with catastrophic ice-sheet collapses. Tracking down which ice sheet produced specific sea-level jumps has been challenging, but two events between 8,500 and 8,200 years ago have been linked to the final drainage of glacial Lake Agassiz in north-central North America. The release of the water from this ice-dammed lake into the ocean is recorded by sea-level jumps in the Mississippi and Rhine-Meuse deltas of approximately 0.4 and 2.1 metres, respectively. These sea-level jumps can be related to an abrupt cooling in the Northern Hemisphere known as the 8.2 kyr event, and it has been suggested that the freshwater release from Lake Agassiz into the North Atlantic was sufficient to perturb the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. As sea-level rise on the order of decimetres to metres can now be detected with confidence and linked to climate records, it is becoming apparent that abrupt climate change during the early Holocene associated with perturbations in North Atlantic circulation required sustained freshwater release into the ocean.

  1. Sensitivity and rapidity of vegetational response to abrupt climate change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Peteet, D.

    2000-01-01

    Rapid climate change characterizes numerous terrestrial sediment records during and since the last glaciation. Vegetational response is best expressed in terrestrial records near ecotones, where sensitivity to climate change is greatest, and response times are as short as decades.

  2. Heinrich-like events in the Southeast Pacific: Abrupt climate change during the last interglacial

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jacobel, A. W.; Mokeddem, Z.; McManus, J. F.

    2010-12-01

    Many previous studies of orbital and sub-orbital scale climate changes in the marine record during the last glacial-interglacial transition have focused on evidence from the Northern Hemisphere. While solar insolation at 65°N evidently plays a primary role in pacing orbital changes, determining the mechanism(s) transferring climatic changes around the globe at orbital and sub-orbital time scales also requires records from the mid and high southern latitudes (Pahnke et al., 2003). Here we present such a record from ODP Leg 202, Site 1234 located 65 km off the Chilean margin (36°13.153'S, 73°40.902'W). With a high sedimentation rate of ~80 cm/kyr, the core site represents an opportunity to examine Marine Isotope Stage 5 (MIS 5), the last interglacial, in high resolution. Using quantifications of ice rafted debris (IRD), foraminiferal abundances, N. pachyderma (sinistral) abundance and oxygen isotopes from planktonic and benthic foraminifera, the present study provides an 80 kyr record of climate change. We resolved MIS 5 in sufficient detail to observe the MIS 5/6 boundary, sub-stages MIS 5a through MIS 5e, and millennial-scale variability during the transition from the last interglacial into the last glacial era. Comparison of our records of MIS 5 with records from the North Atlantic (Oppo et al., 2001) demonstrates that orbital-scale warming in the two hemispheres appears to be approximately synchronous, though from our data it is not possible to infer a precise phase relationship in order to constrain a synchronization mechanism. At shorter time scales, a comparison of our records during the last interglacial with records from the North Atlantic (McManus et al., 1998) shows that episodes of ice rafting at our site, associated with changes in foraminiferal abundances and oxygen isotope content, are similar to, and correlated with, evidence of small-scale Heinrich events in the North Atlantic. This suggests that the expansion and retreat of Andean glaciers, as

  3. Abrupt Climate Change: the View from the Past, the Present and the Future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    White, J. W. C.

    2014-12-01

    Climate is changing as humans put more and more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. With CO2 levels today around 400ppm, we are clearly committed to far more climate change, both in the near term, and well beyond our children's future. A key question is how that change will occur. Abrupt climate changes are those that exceed our expectations, preparedness, and ability to adapt. Such changes challenge us economically, physically, and socially. This talk will draw upon results from ice core research over the past twenty years, as well as a new NRC report on abrupt climate change in order to address abrupt change, as seen in the past in ice cores, as seen today in key environmental systems upon which humans depend, and what is may be coming in the future.

  4. Abrupt climate change in southeast tropical Africa influenced by Indian monsoon variability and ITCZ migration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tierney, Jessica E.; Russell, James M.

    2007-08-01

    The timing and magnitude of abrupt climate change in tropical Africa during the last glacial termination remains poorly understood. High-resolution paleolimnological data from Lake Tanganyika, Southeast Africa show that wind-driven seasonal mixing in the lake was reduced during the Younger Dryas, Inter-Allerød Cool Period, Older Dryas, and Heinrich Event 1, suggesting a weakened southwest Indian monsoon and a more southerly position of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone over Africa during these intervals. These events in Lake Tanganyika, coeval with millennial and centennial-scale climate shifts in the high latitudes, suggest that changes in ITCZ location and Indian monsoon strength are important components of abrupt global climate change and that their effects are felt south of the equator in Africa. However, we observe additional events in Lake Tanganyika of equal magnitude that are not correlated with high-latitude changes, indicating the potential for abrupt climate change to originate from within tropical systems.

  5. Dynamics of climate and ecosystem coupling: abrupt changes and multiple equilibria.

    PubMed Central

    Higgins, Paul A T; Mastrandrea, Michael D; Schneider, Stephen H

    2002-01-01

    Interactions between subunits of the global climate-biosphere system (e.g. atmosphere, ocean, biosphere and cryosphere) often lead to behaviour that is not evident when each subunit is viewed in isolation. This newly evident behaviour is an emergent property of the coupled subsystems. Interactions between thermohaline circulation and climate illustrate one emergent property of coupling ocean and atmospheric circulation. The multiple thermohaline circulation equilibria that result caused abrupt climate changes in the past and may cause abrupt climate changes in the future. Similarly, coupling between the climate system and ecosystem structure and function produces complex behaviour in certain regions. For example, atmosphere-biosphere interactions in the Sahel region of West Africa lead to multiple stable equilibria. Either wet or dry climate equilibria can occur under otherwise identical forcing conditions. The equilibrium reached is dependent on past history (i.e. initial conditions), and relatively small perturbations to either climate or vegetation can cause switching between the two equilibria. Both thermohaline circulation and the climate-vegetation system in the Sahel are prone to abrupt changes that may be irreversible. This complicates the relatively linear view of global changes held in many scientific and policy communities. Emergent properties of coupled socio-natural systems add yet another layer of complexity to the policy debate. As a result, the social and economic consequences of possible global changes are likely to be underestimated in most conventional analyses because these nonlinear, abrupt and irreversible responses are insufficiently considered. PMID:12079526

  6. Dynamics of climate and ecosystem coupling: abrupt changes and multiple equilibria.

    PubMed

    Higgins, Paul A T; Mastrandrea, Michael D; Schneider, Stephen H

    2002-05-29

    Interactions between subunits of the global climate-biosphere system (e.g. atmosphere, ocean, biosphere and cryosphere) often lead to behaviour that is not evident when each subunit is viewed in isolation. This newly evident behaviour is an emergent property of the coupled subsystems. Interactions between thermohaline circulation and climate illustrate one emergent property of coupling ocean and atmospheric circulation. The multiple thermohaline circulation equilibria that result caused abrupt climate changes in the past and may cause abrupt climate changes in the future. Similarly, coupling between the climate system and ecosystem structure and function produces complex behaviour in certain regions. For example, atmosphere-biosphere interactions in the Sahel region of West Africa lead to multiple stable equilibria. Either wet or dry climate equilibria can occur under otherwise identical forcing conditions. The equilibrium reached is dependent on past history (i.e. initial conditions), and relatively small perturbations to either climate or vegetation can cause switching between the two equilibria. Both thermohaline circulation and the climate-vegetation system in the Sahel are prone to abrupt changes that may be irreversible. This complicates the relatively linear view of global changes held in many scientific and policy communities. Emergent properties of coupled socio-natural systems add yet another layer of complexity to the policy debate. As a result, the social and economic consequences of possible global changes are likely to be underestimated in most conventional analyses because these nonlinear, abrupt and irreversible responses are insufficiently considered. PMID:12079526

  7. Ice-core evidence of abrupt climate changes

    PubMed Central

    Alley, Richard B.

    2000-01-01

    Ice-core records show that climate changes in the past have been large, rapid, and synchronous over broad areas extending into low latitudes, with less variability over historical times. These ice-core records come from high mountain glaciers and the polar regions, including small ice caps and the large ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica. PMID:10677460

  8. Gradual onset and recovery of the Younger Dryas abrupt climate event in the tropics

    PubMed Central

    Partin, J.W.; Quinn, T.M.; Shen, C.-C.; Okumura, Y.; Cardenas, M.B.; Siringan, F.P.; Banner, J.L.; Lin, K.; Hu, H.-M.; Taylor, F.W.

    2015-01-01

    Proxy records of temperature from the Atlantic clearly show that the Younger Dryas was an abrupt climate change event during the last deglaciation, but records of hydroclimate are underutilized in defining the event. Here we combine a new hydroclimate record from Palawan, Philippines, in the tropical Pacific, with previously published records to highlight a difference between hydroclimate and temperature responses to the Younger Dryas. Although the onset and termination are synchronous across the records, tropical hydroclimate changes are more gradual (>100 years) than the abrupt (10–100 years) temperature changes in the northern Atlantic Ocean. The abrupt recovery of Greenland temperatures likely reflects changes in regional sea ice extent. Proxy data and transient climate model simulations support the hypothesis that freshwater forced a reduction in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, thereby causing the Younger Dryas. However, changes in ocean overturning may not produce the same effects globally as in Greenland. PMID:26329911

  9. Gradual onset and recovery of the Younger Dryas abrupt climate event in the tropics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Partin, J. W.; Quinn, T. M.; Shen, C.-C.; Okumura, Y.; Cardenas, M. B.; Siringan, F. P.; Banner, J. L.; Lin, K.; Hu, H.-M.; Taylor, F. W.

    2015-09-01

    Proxy records of temperature from the Atlantic clearly show that the Younger Dryas was an abrupt climate change event during the last deglaciation, but records of hydroclimate are underutilized in defining the event. Here we combine a new hydroclimate record from Palawan, Philippines, in the tropical Pacific, with previously published records to highlight a difference between hydroclimate and temperature responses to the Younger Dryas. Although the onset and termination are synchronous across the records, tropical hydroclimate changes are more gradual (>100 years) than the abrupt (10-100 years) temperature changes in the northern Atlantic Ocean. The abrupt recovery of Greenland temperatures likely reflects changes in regional sea ice extent. Proxy data and transient climate model simulations support the hypothesis that freshwater forced a reduction in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, thereby causing the Younger Dryas. However, changes in ocean overturning may not produce the same effects globally as in Greenland.

  10. Gradual onset and recovery of the Younger Dryas abrupt climate event in the tropics.

    PubMed

    Partin, J W; Quinn, T M; Shen, C-C; Okumura, Y; Cardenas, M B; Siringan, F P; Banner, J L; Lin, K; Hu, H-M; Taylor, F W

    2015-01-01

    Proxy records of temperature from the Atlantic clearly show that the Younger Dryas was an abrupt climate change event during the last deglaciation, but records of hydroclimate are underutilized in defining the event. Here we combine a new hydroclimate record from Palawan, Philippines, in the tropical Pacific, with previously published records to highlight a difference between hydroclimate and temperature responses to the Younger Dryas. Although the onset and termination are synchronous across the records, tropical hydroclimate changes are more gradual (>100 years) than the abrupt (10-100 years) temperature changes in the northern Atlantic Ocean. The abrupt recovery of Greenland temperatures likely reflects changes in regional sea ice extent. Proxy data and transient climate model simulations support the hypothesis that freshwater forced a reduction in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, thereby causing the Younger Dryas. However, changes in ocean overturning may not produce the same effects globally as in Greenland. PMID:26329911

  11. North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and Abrupt Climate Change through the Last Glaciation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henry, G., III; McManus, J. F.; Curry, W. B.; Keigwin, L. D.; Giosan, L.

    2014-12-01

    The climate of the glacial North Atlantic was punctuated by catastrophic discharges of icebergs (Heinrich events), as well as by more mysterious, abrupt warming events associated with Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillations. These events are suspected to be related to changes in AMOC and its influence on heat transport and the regional and global heat budget. Investigation of these rapid oscillations is often limited by the resolution of sediment records. High accumulation rates at our study site (33.69°N, 57.58°W, 4583m water depth) on the Bermuda Rise allow improved resolution by one to two orders of magnitude. Cores CDH19 (38.81m) and CDH13 (36.70m), were recovered during KNR191, the initial deployment of the RV Knorr's long coring system developed at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution with support from the NSF. These cores contain high quality sediment sections that allow high resolution studies extending through the last glacial cycle at a key location for monitoring past oceanographic and climatic variability. Here we present detailed multi-proxy data from Bermuda Rise sediments reflecting deep ocean chemistry and dynamics of the last glaciation, and combine them with published data to produce a continuous, high resolution record spanning the last 70,000 years. CaCO3 burial fluxes, foraminifera stable isotopes, and sedimentary uranium-series disequilibria (including seawater-derived 231Pa /230Th), display coherent, complementary variability throughout the last glaciation. Glacial values in each proxy are consistent with reduced ventilation and overturning compared to the Holocene, with intervals that indicate substantial millennial reductions in each, and others when they briefly approach Holocene levels. In multiple instances, particularly spanning interstadials eight through twelve (IS8-IS12) our results are consistent with an abrupt, subcentennial acceleration in the export of excess 231Pa from the North Atlantic during stadial-interstadial transitions

  12. The applicability of research on moving cut data-approximate entropy on abrupt climate change detection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jin, Hongmei; He, Wenping; Liu, Qunqun; Wang, Jinsong; Feng, Guolin

    2016-04-01

    In this study, the performance of moving cut data-approximate entropy (MC-ApEn) to detect abrupt dynamic changes was investigated. Numerical tests in a time series model indicate that the MC-ApEn method is suitable for the detection of abrupt dynamic changes for three types of meteorological data: daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, and daily precipitation. Additionally, the MC-ApEn method was used to detect abrupt climate changes in daily precipitation data from Northwest China and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index. The results show an abrupt dynamic change in precipitation in 1980 and in the PDO index in 1976. The times indicated for the abrupt changes are identical to those from previous results. Application of the analysis to observational data further confirmed the performance of the MC-ApEn method. Moreover, MC-ApEn outperformed the moving t test (MTT) and the moving detrended fluctuation analysis (MDFA) methods for the detection of abrupt dynamic changes in a simulated 1000-point daily precipitation dataset.

  13. Rounding of abrupt phase transitions in brain networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Villa Martín, Paula; Moretti, Paolo; Muñoz, Miguel A.

    2015-01-01

    The observation of critical-like behavior in cortical networks represents a major step forward in elucidating how the brain manages information. Understanding the origin and functionality of critical-like dynamics, as well as its robustness, is a major challenge in contemporary neuroscience. Here, we present an extensive numerical study of a family of simple dynamical models, which describe activity propagation in brain networks through the integration of different neighboring spiking potentials, mimicking basic neural interactions. The requirement of signal integration may lead to discontinuous phase transitions in networks that are well described by the mean-field approximation, thus preventing the emergence of critical points in such systems. Brain networks, however, are finite dimensional and exhibit a heterogeneous hierarchical structure that cannot be encoded in mean-field models. Here we propose that, as a consequence of the presence of such a heterogeneous substrate with its concomitant structural disorder, critical-like features may emerge even in the presence of integration. These conclusions may prove significant in explaining the observation of traits of critical behavior in large-scale measurements of brain activity.

  14. Modeling past abrupt climate changes: driven oscillators and synchronization phenomena in Paleoclimate theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marchionne, Arianna

    2014-05-01

    According to Milankovitch theory of ice ages, summer insolation at high northern latitudes drives the glacial cycles, i.e. the growth and reduction of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets, and there is evidence that astronomical forcing controls indeed the timing of Pleistocene glacial-interglacial cycles. However, the δ18Otime series (the δ18O is a proxy for global ice volume) available for the last few million years reveal a non-linear response of the climate to the external forcing: transitions from the glacial to the interglacial states occur more rapidly than the transitions from the interglacials to the glacials, resulting in the so-called saw-tooth shape of the signal. These terminations were very abrupt compared to the smooth changes in insolation. Moreover, insolation alone cannot explain the Mid-Pleistocene transition. During this event, occurred about one million years ago, the dominant 41 kyr glacial cycles, were replaced by longer saw-tooth shaped cycles with a time scale around 100 kyr. The asymmetry in the oscillations indicates a non-linear response to the orbital forcing, expressed through a bifurcation, or tipping point. As an introduction to the problem, we studied simple driven oscillators that can exhibit asymmetric oscillations between the glacial and interglacial states under the effect of the astronomical forcing, such as the Van der Pool and the Duffing oscillators. In order to understand how these simple low-dimensional models enter theories of ice ages and rapid events, we studied synchronization phenomena between simple driven oscillators and astronomical forcing, focusing on distinguishing between the so-called resonance scenario and the so-called phase locking scenario. We next examined the possible mechanisms for the Mid-Pleistocene transition. Here we show that the transition could be explained as a result of frequency-locking to the external forcing. This change can be interpreted as a result of an internal change in climate response

  15. Simulating the vegetation response to abrupt climate changes under glacial conditions with the ORCHIDEE/IPSL models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Woillez, M.-N.; Kageyama, M.; Combourieu-Nebout, N.; Krinner, G.

    2012-09-01

    The last glacial period has been punctuated by two types of abrupt climatic events, the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) and Heinrich (HE) events. These events, recorded in Greenland ice and in marine sediments, involved changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and led to major changes in the terrestrial biosphere. Here we use the dynamical global vegetation model ORCHIDEE to simulate the response of vegetation to abrupt changes in the AMOC strength. To do so, we force ORCHIDEE off-line with outputs from the IPSL_CM4 general circulation model, in which we have forced the AMOC to change by adding freshwater fluxes in the North Atlantic. We investigate the impact of a collapse and recovery of the AMOC, at different rates, and focus on Western Europe, where many pollen records are available to compare with. The impact of an AMOC collapse on the European mean temperatures and precipitations simulated by the GCM is relatively small but sufficient to drive an important regression of forests and expansion of grasses in ORCHIDEE, in qualitative agreement with pollen data for an HE event. On the contrary, a run with a rapid shift of the AMOC to an hyperactive state of 30 Sv, mimicking the warming phase of a DO event, does not exhibit a strong impact on the European vegetation compared to the glacial control state. For our model, simulating the impact of an HE event thus appears easier than simulating the abrupt transition towards the interstadial phase of a DO. For both a collapse or a recovery of the AMOC the vegetation starts to respond to climatic changes immediately but reaches equilibrium about 200 yr after the climate equilibrates, suggesting a possible bias in the climatic reconstructions based on pollen records, which assume equilibrium between climate and vegetation. However, our study does not take into account vegetation feedbacks on the atmosphere.

  16. Agulhas salt-leakage oscillations during abrupt climate changes of the Late Pleistocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marino, Gianluca; Zahn, Rainer; Ziegler, Martin; Purcell, Conor; Knorr, Gregor; Hall, Ian R.; Ziveri, Patrizia; Elderfield, Henry

    2013-09-01

    An ensemble of new, high-resolution records of surface ocean hydrography from the Indian-Atlantic oceanic gateway, south of Africa, demonstrates recurrent and high-amplitude salinity oscillations in the Agulhas Leakage area during the penultimate glacial-interglacial cycle. A series of millennial-scale salinification events, indicating strengthened salt leakage into the South Atlantic, appear to correlate with abrupt changes in the North Atlantic climate and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). This interhemispheric coupling, which plausibly involved changes in the Hadley Cell and midlatitude westerlies that impacted the interocean transport at the tip of Africa, suggests that the Agulhas Leakage acted as a source of negative buoyancy for the perturbed AMOC, possibly aiding its return to full strength. Our finding points to the Indian-to-Atlantic salt transport as a potentially important modulator of the AMOC during the abrupt climate changes of the Late Pleistocene.

  17. A Collaborative Proposal: Simulating and Understanding Abrupt Climate-Ecosystem Changes During Holocene with NCAR-CCSM3.

    SciTech Connect

    Zhengyu Liu, Bette Otto-Bliesner

    2013-02-01

    We have made significant progress in our proposed work in the last 4 years (3 years plus 1 year of no cost extension). In anticipation of the next phase of study, we have spent time on the abrupt changes since the last glacial maximum. First, we have performed further model-data comparison based on our baseline TRACE-21 simulation and made important progress towards the understanding of several major climate transitions. Second, we have made a significant effort in processing the model output of TRACE-21 and have put this output on a website for access by the community. Third, we have completed many additional sensitivity experiments. In addition, we have organized synthesis workshops to facilitate and promote transient model-data comparison for the international community. Finally, we have identified new areas of interest for Holocene climate changes.

  18. The grain size gap and abrupt gravel-sand transitions in rivers due to suspension fallout

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lamb, Michael P.; Venditti, Jeremy G.

    2016-04-01

    Median grain sizes on riverbeds range from boulders in uplands to silt in lowlands; however, rivers with ~1-5 mm diameter bed sediment are rare. This grain size gap also marks an abrupt transition between gravel- and sand-bedded reaches that is unlike any other part of the fluvial network. Abrupt gravel-sand transitions have been attributed to rapid breakdown or rapid transport of fine gravel, or a bimodal sediment supply, but supporting evidence is lacking. Here we demonstrate that rivers dramatically lose the ability to transport sand as wash load where bed shear velocity drops below ~0.1 m/s, forcing an abrupt transition in bed-material grain size. Using thresholds for wash load and initial motion, we show that the gap emerges only for median bed-material grain sizes of ~1-5 mm due to Reynolds number dependencies in suspension transport. The grain size gap, therefore, is sensitive to material properties and gravity, with coarser gaps predicted on Mars and Titan.

  19. Abrupt transitions in the NAO control of explosive North Atlantic cyclone development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gómara, Iñigo; Rodríguez-Fonseca, Belén; Zurita-Gotor, Pablo; Ulbrich, Sven; Pinto, Joaquim G.

    2016-02-01

    Explosive cyclones are intense extra-tropical low pressure systems featuring large deepening rates. In the Euro-Atlantic sector, they are a major source of life-threatening weather impacts due to their associated strong wind gusts, heavy precipitation and storm surges. The wintertime variability of the North Atlantic cyclonic activity is primarily modulated by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In this study, we investigate the interannual and multi-decadal variability of explosive North Atlantic cyclones using track density data from two reanalysis datasets (NCEP and ERA-40) and a control simulation of an atmosphere/ocean coupled General Circulation Model (GCM—ECHAM5/MPIOM1). The leading interannual and multi-decadal modes of variability of explosive cyclone track density are characterized by a strengthening/weakening pattern between Newfoundland and Iceland, which is mainly modulated by the NAO at both timescales. However, the NAO control of interannual cyclone variability is not stationary in time and abruptly fluctuates during periods of 20-25 years long both in NCEP and ECHAM5/MPIOM1. These transitions are accompanied by structural changes in the leading mode of explosive cyclone variability, and by decreased/enhanced baroclinicity over the sub-polar/sub-tropical North Atlantic. The influence of the ocean is apparently important for both the occurrence and persistence of such anomalous periods. In the GCM, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation appears to influence the large-scale baroclinicity and explosive cyclone development over the North Atlantic. These results permit a better understanding of explosive cyclogenesis variability at different climatic timescales and might help to improve predictions of these hazardous events.

  20. North Atlantic ocean circulation and abrupt climate change during the last glaciation.

    PubMed

    Henry, L G; McManus, J F; Curry, W B; Roberts, N L; Piotrowski, A M; Keigwin, L D

    2016-07-29

    The most recent ice age was characterized by rapid and hemispherically asynchronous climate oscillations, whose origin remains unresolved. Variations in oceanic meridional heat transport may contribute to these repeated climate changes, which were most pronounced during marine isotope stage 3, the glacial interval 25 thousand to 60 thousand years ago. We examined climate and ocean circulation proxies throughout this interval at high resolution in a deep North Atlantic sediment core, combining the kinematic tracer protactinium/thorium (Pa/Th) with the deep water-mass tracer, epibenthic δ(13)C. These indicators suggest reduced Atlantic overturning circulation during every cool northern stadial, with the greatest reductions during episodic Hudson Strait iceberg discharges, while sharp northern warming followed reinvigorated overturning. These results provide direct evidence for the ocean's persistent, central role in abrupt glacial climate change. PMID:27365315

  1. North Atlantic ocean circulation and abrupt climate change during the last glaciation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henry, L. G.; McManus, J. F.; Curry, W. B.; Roberts, N. L.; Piotrowski, A. M.; Keigwin, L. D.

    2016-07-01

    The most recent ice age was characterized by rapid and hemispherically asynchronous climate oscillations, whose origin remains unresolved. Variations in oceanic meridional heat transport may contribute to these repeated climate changes, which were most pronounced during marine isotope stage 3, the glacial interval 25 thousand to 60 thousand years ago. We examined climate and ocean circulation proxies throughout this interval at high resolution in a deep North Atlantic sediment core, combining the kinematic tracer protactinium/thorium (Pa/Th) with the deep water-mass tracer, epibenthic δ13C. These indicators suggest reduced Atlantic overturning circulation during every cool northern stadial, with the greatest reductions during episodic Hudson Strait iceberg discharges, while sharp northern warming followed reinvigorated overturning. These results provide direct evidence for the ocean’s persistent, central role in abrupt glacial climate change.

  2. Spontaneous abrupt climate change due to an atmospheric blocking-sea-ice-ocean feedback in an unforced climate model simulation.

    PubMed

    Drijfhout, Sybren; Gleeson, Emily; Dijkstra, Henk A; Livina, Valerie

    2013-12-01

    Abrupt climate change is abundant in geological records, but climate models rarely have been able to simulate such events in response to realistic forcing. Here we report on a spontaneous abrupt cooling event, lasting for more than a century, with a temperature anomaly similar to that of the Little Ice Age. The event was simulated in the preindustrial control run of a high-resolution climate model, without imposing external perturbations. Initial cooling started with a period of enhanced atmospheric blocking over the eastern subpolar gyre. In response, a southward progression of the sea-ice margin occurred, and the sea-level pressure anomaly was locked to the sea-ice margin through thermal forcing. The cold-core high steered more cold air to the area, reinforcing the sea-ice concentration anomaly east of Greenland. The sea-ice surplus was carried southward by ocean currents around the tip of Greenland. South of 70 °N, sea ice already started melting and the associated freshwater anomaly was carried to the Labrador Sea, shutting off deep convection. There, surface waters were exposed longer to atmospheric cooling and sea surface temperature dropped, causing an even larger thermally forced high above the Labrador Sea. In consequence, east of Greenland, anomalous winds changed from north to south, terminating the event with similar abruptness to its onset. Our results imply that only climate models that possess sufficient resolution to correctly represent atmospheric blocking, in combination with a sensitive sea-ice model, are able to simulate this kind of abrupt climate change. PMID:24248352

  3. Spontaneous abrupt climate change due to an atmospheric blocking–sea-ice–ocean feedback in an unforced climate model simulation

    PubMed Central

    Drijfhout, Sybren; Gleeson, Emily; Dijkstra, Henk A.; Livina, Valerie

    2013-01-01

    Abrupt climate change is abundant in geological records, but climate models rarely have been able to simulate such events in response to realistic forcing. Here we report on a spontaneous abrupt cooling event, lasting for more than a century, with a temperature anomaly similar to that of the Little Ice Age. The event was simulated in the preindustrial control run of a high-resolution climate model, without imposing external perturbations. Initial cooling started with a period of enhanced atmospheric blocking over the eastern subpolar gyre. In response, a southward progression of the sea-ice margin occurred, and the sea-level pressure anomaly was locked to the sea-ice margin through thermal forcing. The cold-core high steered more cold air to the area, reinforcing the sea-ice concentration anomaly east of Greenland. The sea-ice surplus was carried southward by ocean currents around the tip of Greenland. South of 70°N, sea ice already started melting and the associated freshwater anomaly was carried to the Labrador Sea, shutting off deep convection. There, surface waters were exposed longer to atmospheric cooling and sea surface temperature dropped, causing an even larger thermally forced high above the Labrador Sea. In consequence, east of Greenland, anomalous winds changed from north to south, terminating the event with similar abruptness to its onset. Our results imply that only climate models that possess sufficient resolution to correctly represent atmospheric blocking, in combination with a sensitive sea-ice model, are able to simulate this kind of abrupt climate change. PMID:24248352

  4. Does the trigger for abrupt climate change reside in the ocean or in the atmosphere?

    PubMed

    Broecker, W S

    2003-06-01

    Two hypotheses have been put forward to explain the large and abrupt climate changes that punctuated glacial time. One attributes such changes to reorganizations of the ocean's thermohaline circulation and the other to changes in tropical atmosphere-ocean dynamics. In an attempt to distinguish between these hypotheses, two lines of evidence are examined. The first involves the timing of the freshwater injections to the northern Atlantic that have been suggested as triggers for the global impacts associated with the Younger Dryas and Heinrich events. The second has to do with evidence for precursory events associated with the Heinrich ice-rafted debris layers in the northern Atlantic and with the abrupt Dansgaard-Oeschger warmings recorded in the Santa Barbara Basin. PMID:12791974

  5. Deep-Sea Biodiversity Response to Abrupt Deglacial and Holocene Climate Changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yasuhara, M.

    2014-12-01

    High-resolution records of microfossil assemblages from deep-sea sediment cores covering the last 20,000 years in the North Atlantic Ocean were investigated to understand biotic responses to abrupt climate changes over decadal-centennial timescales. The results show pervasive control of deep-sea benthic species diversity by rapidly changing climate. Species diversity rapidly increased during abrupt stadial events during the last deglacial and the Holocene interglacial periods. These included the well-known Heinrich 1, the Younger Dryas, and the 8.2 ka events when the strength of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) decreased. In addition, there is evidence for quasi-cyclic changes in biodiversity at a ~1500-year periodicity. Statistical analyses revealed that AMOC-driven bottom-water-temperature variability is a primary influence on deep-sea biodiversity. Our results may portend pervasive, synchronous and sudden ecosystem responses to human-induced changes to climate and ocean circulation in this century. Exceptionally highly resolved fossil records help us to understand past, present and future ecosystem responses to climate changes by bridging the gap between biological and palaeontological time-scales.

  6. The role of Southern Ocean winds and CO2 in glacial abrupt climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Banderas, R.; Alvarez-Solas, J.; Montoya, M.

    2011-12-01

    The last glacial period (ca. 110-10 kyr before present, hereafter kyr BP) is characterized by substantial climate instability, manifested as climatic variability on millennial timescales. Two types of events dominate this variability: Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events, which involve decadal-scale warming by more than 10K, and Heinrich events, massive iceberg discharges from the Laurentide Ice Sheet at intervals of ca. 10 kyr during peak glacial conditions. Both DO and Heinrich events are associated with widespread centennial to millennial scale climatic changes, including a synchronous temperature response over the North Atlantic and an anti-phase temperature relationship over Antarctica and most of the Southern Ocean, as revealed by a wealth of deep sea sediments and terrestrial record. Recent studies indicate CO2 changes during deglaciation and, possibly, during glacial abrupt climate changes were preceded by significant increases of Southern Ocean upwelling caused by an enhancement and/or a shift of surface winds over that region. The proposed hypothesis is that periods of halted or reduced North Atlantic deep water (NADW) formation resulted in warming of the Southern Ocean through the bipolar see-saw effect leading to a reorganization of Southern Hemisphere (SH) surface winds, and thereby enhanced upwelling and atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Here, the role of SH surface wind and CO2 changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is analyzed in a coupled climate model of intermediate complexity. We investigate whether changes in the former could eventually trigger an intensification of the Atlantic overturning circulation and a northward shift of NADW formation, which would allow to explain glacial abrupt climate changes as the result of an oscillation which involves the MOC, CO2 and the winds.

  7. Climatic and Societal Causes for Abrupt Environmental Change in the Mediterranean During the Common Era

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mensing, S. A.; Tunno, I.; Sagnotti, L.; Florindo, F.; Noble, P. J.; Archer, C.; Zimmerman, S. R. H.; Pavón-Carrasco, F. J.; Cifnani, G.; Passigli, S.; Piovesan, G.

    2015-12-01

    We compare climatic and societal causes for abrupt environmental change for the last 2000 years in the Rieti Basin, central Italy using high-resolution sedimentary paleoenvironmental proxies, historical documents, and annually resolved independent climate reconstructions of temperature and precipitation. Pollen zones, identified from temporally constrained cluster analysis, coincide with historic periods developed from well-established ceramic sequences corresponding to the Roman Imperial through Late Antique (1 to 600 CE) Early Medieval (600 to 875 CE), Medieval through Late Medieval (875 to 1400 CE), Renaissance and Modern (1400 to 1725 CE), and Contemporary periods (1725 CE to present). Non-metric dimensional scaling (NMDS) ordination showed that each temporal period occupied a unique ecologic space suggesting that a new landscape was created during each successive historic period. During Roman time, between 1 and 500 CE, a modest decline in forest coincides with a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and drier climate; however mesophyllous forest is preserved. Steep decline in forest cover between 850 and 950 CE coincides with positive temperature anomalies in Europe and a positive NAO. Although this would seem to suggest climate as a cause, temperature and precipitation changes are modest and the magnitude and rapidity of the vegetation change suggests climate played a small role. Archaeological evidence from across Europe identifies socioeconomic factors that produced forest clearing. In contrast, cooler temperatures and a negative NAO (increased ppt) appears to have been a catalyst for land abandonment and forest recovery in the 13th to 14th centuries. The NAO produces opposite effects on societies in the eastern and western Mediterranean with the negative phase in 1400 CE leading to cool wet climate and land abandonment in central Italy but an abrupt shift to drier conditions and change from sedentary village life to nomadism in Syria.

  8. Consistent simulations of multiple proxy responses to an abrupt climate change event.

    PubMed

    LeGrande, A N; Schmidt, G A; Shindell, D T; Field, C V; Miller, R L; Koch, D M; Faluvegi, G; Hoffmann, G

    2006-01-24

    Isotope, aerosol, and methane records document an abrupt cooling event across the Northern Hemisphere at 8.2 kiloyears before present (kyr), while separate geologic lines of evidence document the catastrophic drainage of the glacial Lakes Agassiz and Ojibway into the Hudson Bay at approximately the same time. This melt water pulse may have been the catalyst for a decrease in North Atlantic Deep Water formation and subsequent cooling around the Northern Hemisphere. However, lack of direct evidence for ocean cooling has lead to speculation that this abrupt event was purely local to Greenland and called into question this proposed mechanism. We simulate the response to this melt water pulse using a coupled general circulation model that explicitly tracks water isotopes and with atmosphere-only experiments that calculate changes in atmospheric aerosol deposition (specifically (10)Be and dust) and wetland methane emissions. The simulations produce a short period of significantly diminished North Atlantic Deep Water and are able to quantitatively match paleoclimate observations, including the lack of isotopic signal in the North Atlantic. This direct comparison with multiple proxy records provides compelling evidence that changes in ocean circulation played a major role in this abrupt climate change event. PMID:16415159

  9. Geometry Transition in the Cocos Plate, from Flat-Steep to Constant Dip: Smooth or Abrupt?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perez-Campos, X.; Clayton, R. W.; Brudzinski, M. R.; Valdés-González, C. M.; Cabral-Cano, E.; Arciniega-Ceballos, A.; Córdoba-Montiel, F.

    2013-05-01

    Subduction of the Cocos Plate beneath North America has a variable and complex behavior along the Middle-American Trench. Initially, its geometry was delineated from regional seismicity. In the last 10 years, seismic experiments have illuminated some details in the geometry. They have reported, from NW to SE an abrupt dip transition, from 50 to 26°, as the result of a tear that splits Cocos North from Cocos South; then there is a smooth transition to a horizontal geometry under central Mexico. Further southeast, under the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, the Cocos plate shows a constant ~26° subduction dip. This last transition has been assumed to be smooth from the sparse seismicity in the region. A first glimpse of the slab geometry under Oaxaca, shows the slab continues to be flat at least until 97.5°W longitude, where the slab suddenly changes to a ~55° dip to the northeast. This occurs at a distance of ~75 km from the Pico de Orizaba volcano, which is a similar distance as the active Popocatepetl volcano from the place where the slab dives into the mantle along the Meso-American Subduction Experiment line, in central Mexico. East of this region, receiver function images show an abrupt change in the geometry and length of the slab.

  10. Abrupt post-glacial climate events in West Asia and North Africa monsoon domains

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gasse, Françoise; Van Campo, Elise

    1994-09-01

    Regions beyond the present or past penetration of the Indian and African monsoons have experienced several large and abrupt climatic fluctuations over the past 13 14C kyr. Pollen and lake records from West Asia (Western Tibet and Rajasthan), East Africa (Ethiopia) and West Africa (Western Sahara, Sahel and subequatorial Africa) were selected on the basis of chronological control, sensitivity of both site and environmental indicators to climate change, the continuity of the record, and interdisciplinary control of the palaeoclimatic interpretation. Conditions wetter than those of today prevailed during the early-mid-Holocene period, but major dry spells are recorded at all sites during the intervals ˜ 11.0-9.5 kyr BP, ˜ 8-7 kyr BP and 3-4 kyr BP. Several records also suggest dry events of minor amplitude around 6 kyr BP. Potential boundary forcings of insolation and sea surface and tropical land surface conditions are discussed. The solar radiation accounts for the general envelop of the post-glacial monsoon fluctuations, but explains neither the timing nor the amplitude of the short-term changes. In spite of apparent covariation between fluctuations in sea surface conditions in the North Atlantic and the monsoon record, no direct mechanism could be found relating the intensity of the oceanic thermohaline conveyor belt to the monsoon strength. Changes in tropical land surface conditions (soil moisture negative feedback, and changes in CH 4 production from wetlands) provide a more satisfactory hypothesis for explaining abrupt reversal events.

  11. Laurentide Ice Sheet meltwater and abrupt climate change during the last glaciation

    SciTech Connect

    Hill, H W; Flower, B P; Quinn, T M; Hollander, D J; Guilderson, T P

    2005-10-02

    A leading hypothesis to explain abrupt climate change during the last glacial cycle calls on fluctuations in the margin of the North American Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS), which may have routed freshwater between the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) and North Atlantic, affecting North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) variability and regional climate. Paired measurements of {delta}O and Mg/Ca of foraminiferal calcite from GOM sediments reveal five episodes of LIS meltwater input from 28-45 thousand years ago (ka) that do not match the millennial-scale Dansgaard-Oeschger (D/O) warmings recorded in Greenland ice. We suggest that summer melting of the LIS may occur during Antarctic warming and likely contributed to sea-level variability during Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3).

  12. Meltwater and Abrupt Climate Change in the Gulf of Mexico During the Last Glacial Termination

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, C.; Flower, B.; Hastings, D.; Randle, N.

    2008-12-01

    During the Last Glacial Termination from 18,000-8,000 cal. yrs B.P., meltwater routing of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) may have been linked to abrupt climatic events, such as the Younger Dryas. Previous studies show episodic meltwater input from the LIS, via the Mississippi River to the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) several thousand years before the onset of the Younger Dryas until approximately 13,000 cal yrs B.P., when meltwater routing may have switched to a more northern spillway, causing an abrupt change in thermohaline circulation (THC). The exact timing and magnitude of this meltwater input to the GOM is poorly constrained due to the lack of high-resolution data. Also unknown are the detailed relationships between GOM sea surface temperature, sea surface salinity and ice volume, relative to Northern and Southern Hemisphere climate from Greenland and Antarctica ice core records. High sedimentation rates (~40 cm/kyr) from laminated, anoxic Orca Basin core MD02-2550 provide the necessary resolution to assess GOM paleoceanography. Paired Mg/Ca and δ18O values from planktonic Foraminifera species Globigerinoides ruber (pink and white varieties) provide the relative timing of meltwater input and temperature change in the GOM with nearly decadal resolution. δ18Ocalcite results show multiple cool and/or high salinity periods with isotopic excursions of at least 2‰ that coincide with abrupt climatic events in Greenland ice core records, including the Oldest Dryas from 16,200-15,000 cal. yrs B.P. and the Intra-Allerod Cold Period at 13,860-13,560 cal. yrs B.P. Meltwater input to the GOM is seen for several thousand years before the onset of the Younger Dryas with white G. ruber δ18Ocalcite values as low as -4‰. Thirty-three AMS radiocarbon dates and high-resolution δ18O results provide excellent temporal constraints on deglacial climate events, including an abrupt (<200 yrs) cessation of meltwater in the GOM centered at 10,970± 40 radiocarbon yrs B.P., with a δ18O

  13. Antarctic Forcing of Abrupt Global Climate Change During Isotope Stage 3

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turney, Christian; Jones, Richard; Phipps, Steven; Thomas, Zoë; Hogg, Alan; Kershaw, Peter; Fogwill, Christopher; Palmer, Jonathan; Bronk Ramsey, Christopher; Adolphi, Florian; Muscheler, Raimund; Hughen, Konrad; Staff, Richard; Grosvenor, Mark; Golledge, Nicholas; Haberle, Simon

    2016-04-01

    Contrasting Greenland and Antarctic temperature trends during the late Pleistocene (60,000 to 11,650 years ago) are thought to be driven by imbalances in the rate of formation of North Atlantic and Antarctic Deep Water (the 'bipolar seesaw'), with millennial-scale cooling Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events in the north leading warming in the south. An alternative origin for these abrupt climate shifts, however, is the Southern Hemisphere whereby changes are transmitted globally via atmospheric and/or oceanic teleconnections. Testing these competing hypotheses is challenging given the relatively large uncertainties associated with dating terrestrial, marine and ice core chronologies. Here we use a fully coupled climate system model to investigate whether freshening of the Southern Ocean has extra-regional climate impacts. Focusing on an Isotope Stage 3 cooling event preserved in Antarctic ice cores immediately prior to Antarctic Isotope Maximum 4 (AIM 4; around 29,000 years ago) we undertook an ensemble of transient meltwater simulations. We observe no impact on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) from freshwater hosing in the Southern Ocean but a dramatic warming over the North Atlantic and contrasting precipitation patterns across the low latitudes. Exploiting a new bidecadally-resolved 14C calibration dataset obtained from New Zealand kauri (Agathis australis) we undertook intensive radiocarbon dating and high-resolution multiproxy analysis of the tropical Australia Lynch's Crater terrestrial peat sequence spanning this same period and find a synchronous change in hydroclimate to the purported meltwater event in the Southern Ocean. Our results imply Southern Ocean dynamics played a significant role in driving global climate change across this period via atmospheric teleconnections, with implications for other abrupt events through the late Pleistocene.

  14. Abrupt climate-triggered lake ecosystem changes recorded in late glacial lake sediments in northern Poland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Slowinski, M. M.; Zawiska, I.; Ott, F.; Noryskiewicz, A. M.; Apolinarska, K.; Lutynska, M.; Michczynska, D. J.; Brauer, A.; Wulf, S.; Skubala, P.; Blaszkiewicz, M.

    2013-12-01

    The aim of this study was to better understand how local lake ecosystems responded to abrupt climate changes through applying multi-proxy sediment analyses. Therefore, we carried out a detailed and high-resolution case study on the late glacial sediment from the Trzechowskie palaeolake located in the eastern part of the Pomeranian Lakeland, northern Poland. We reconstructed climate induced environmental changes in the paleolake and its catchment using biotic proxies (macrofossils, pollen, cladocera, diatoms, oribatidae mite) and classical geochemical proxies (δ18O, δ13C, loss-on-ignition, CaCO3 content) in combination with high-resolution μ-XRF element core scanning. The core chronology has been established by means of biostratigraphy, AMS 14C-dating on plant macro remains, varve counting in laminated intervals and tephrochronology. The latter was possible by the discovery of the late Allerød Laacher See Tephra for the first time at such eastern location. Biogenic accumulation in the lake started rather late during the lateglacial interstadial at 13903×170 cal yrs BP. The rapid and pronounced cooling at the beginning of the Younger Dryas had a major impact on the lake and its catchment as clearly reflected by both, biotic and geochemical proxies. The depositional environment of the lake abruptly changed from a varved to massive gytjia. The pronounced warming at the demise of Younger Dryas cooling is well-reflected in all environmental indicators but with conspicuous leads and lags reflecting complex responses of lake ecosystems to climate warming. The research was supported by the National Science Centre Poland - NN306085037. This study is a contribution to the Virtual Institute ICLEA (Integrated Climate and Landscape Evolution Analysis) funded by the Helmholtz Association.

  15. A steep-slope transistor based on abrupt electronic phase transition

    PubMed Central

    Shukla, Nikhil; Thathachary, Arun V.; Agrawal, Ashish; Paik, Hanjong; Aziz, Ahmedullah; Schlom, Darrell G.; Gupta, Sumeet Kumar; Engel-Herbert, Roman; Datta, Suman

    2015-01-01

    Collective interactions in functional materials can enable novel macroscopic properties like insulator-to-metal transitions. While implementing such materials into field-effect-transistor technology can potentially augment current state-of-the-art devices by providing unique routes to overcome their conventional limits, attempts to harness the insulator-to-metal transition for high-performance transistors have experienced little success. Here, we demonstrate a pathway for harnessing the abrupt resistivity transformation across the insulator-to-metal transition in vanadium dioxide (VO2), to design a hybrid-phase-transition field-effect transistor that exhibits gate controlled steep (‘sub-kT/q') and reversible switching at room temperature. The transistor design, wherein VO2 is implemented in series with the field-effect transistor's source rather than into the channel, exploits negative differential resistance induced across the VO2 to create an internal amplifier that facilitates enhanced performance over a conventional field-effect transistor. Our approach enables low-voltage complementary n-type and p-type transistor operation as demonstrated here, and is applicable to other insulator-to-metal transition materials, offering tantalizing possibilities for energy-efficient logic and memory applications. PMID:26249212

  16. A steep-slope transistor based on abrupt electronic phase transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shukla, Nikhil; Thathachary, Arun V.; Agrawal, Ashish; Paik, Hanjong; Aziz, Ahmedullah; Schlom, Darrell G.; Gupta, Sumeet Kumar; Engel-Herbert, Roman; Datta, Suman

    2015-08-01

    Collective interactions in functional materials can enable novel macroscopic properties like insulator-to-metal transitions. While implementing such materials into field-effect-transistor technology can potentially augment current state-of-the-art devices by providing unique routes to overcome their conventional limits, attempts to harness the insulator-to-metal transition for high-performance transistors have experienced little success. Here, we demonstrate a pathway for harnessing the abrupt resistivity transformation across the insulator-to-metal transition in vanadium dioxide (VO2), to design a hybrid-phase-transition field-effect transistor that exhibits gate controlled steep (`sub-kT/q') and reversible switching at room temperature. The transistor design, wherein VO2 is implemented in series with the field-effect transistor's source rather than into the channel, exploits negative differential resistance induced across the VO2 to create an internal amplifier that facilitates enhanced performance over a conventional field-effect transistor. Our approach enables low-voltage complementary n-type and p-type transistor operation as demonstrated here, and is applicable to other insulator-to-metal transition materials, offering tantalizing possibilities for energy-efficient logic and memory applications.

  17. The effect of abrupt climate changes and climate background conditions in Southern Europe during the last glacial

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knorr, Gregor; Martin-Puertas, Celia; Brauer, Achim; Lohmann, Gerrit

    2015-04-01

    The last glacial period is characterized by abrupt and large temperature shifts in Greenland and the North Atlantic realm. Pollen and sediment data from Lago Grande di Monticchio (MON) have demonstrated a clear imprint of these fluctuations operating at millennial time-scales. Interestingly, basic mean environmental condition changes with respect to temperature and precipitation occurred during MIS4, separating warm and dry conditions during MIS5 from relatively cold and humid conditions within MIS3. This general climate background shift is superposed by distinct millennial-scale variability at MON. Using a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model applying boundary conditions at 32 ka BP and pre-industrial conditions as a surrogate for MIS3 and MIS5, we have simulated and analysed characteristic changes in Southern Europe during the last glacial. We find that changes in the mean state at MON are mainly related to a partial shift of the North Atlantic deep water (NADW) convection sites from the Nordic Seas to South of Iceland, the presence of the Fennoscandian ice sheet and lower greenhouse gas concentrations. These background characteristics provide the basis for enhanced zonal moisture transport from the eastern North Atlantic to Middle and Southern Europe. Furthermore, simulations of abrupt climate change scenarios show that a deactivation of the convection sites South of Iceland during MIS3 leads to cooler and dryer conditions at MON. Such temperature and precipitation changes are thought to provide a counter-acting effect on woody vegetation and associated pollen signals at MON. This is in contrast to the impact of abrupt climate perturbation scenarios during MIS5, where no significant precipitation changes are detected. Hence, the simulated changes and underlying mechanisms are largely consistent with the recorded proxy evidence with respect to both, mean state and millennial-scale changes.

  18. Gain control through divisive inhibition prevents abrupt transition to chaos in a neural mass model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Papasavvas, Christoforos A.; Wang, Yujiang; Trevelyan, Andrew J.; Kaiser, Marcus

    2015-09-01

    Experimental results suggest that there are two distinct mechanisms of inhibition in cortical neuronal networks: subtractive and divisive inhibition. They modulate the input-output function of their target neurons either by increasing the input that is needed to reach maximum output or by reducing the gain and the value of maximum output itself, respectively. However, the role of these mechanisms on the dynamics of the network is poorly understood. We introduce a novel population model and numerically investigate the influence of divisive inhibition on network dynamics. Specifically, we focus on the transitions from a state of regular oscillations to a state of chaotic dynamics via period-doubling bifurcations. The model with divisive inhibition exhibits a universal transition rate to chaos (Feigenbaum behavior). In contrast, in an equivalent model without divisive inhibition, transition rates to chaos are not bounded by the universal constant (non-Feigenbaum behavior). This non-Feigenbaum behavior, when only subtractive inhibition is present, is linked to the interaction of bifurcation curves in the parameter space. Indeed, searching the parameter space showed that such interactions are impossible when divisive inhibition is included. Therefore, divisive inhibition prevents non-Feigenbaum behavior and, consequently, any abrupt transition to chaos. The results suggest that the divisive inhibition in neuronal networks could play a crucial role in keeping the states of order and chaos well separated and in preventing the onset of pathological neural dynamics.

  19. Gain control through divisive inhibition prevents abrupt transition to chaos in a neural mass model

    PubMed Central

    Papasavvas, Christoforos A.; Wang, Yujiang; Trevelyan, Andrew J.; Kaiser, Marcus

    2016-01-01

    Experimental results suggest that there are two distinct mechanisms of inhibition in cortical neuronal networks: subtractive and divisive inhibition. They modulate the input-output function of their target neurons either by increasing the input that is needed to reach maximum output or by reducing the gain and the value of maximum output itself, respectively. However, the role of these mechanisms on the dynamics of the network is poorly understood. We introduce a novel population model and numerically investigate the influence of divisive inhibition on network dynamics. Specifically, we focus on the transitions from a state of regular oscillations to a state of chaotic dynamics via period-doubling bifurcations. The model with divisive inhibition exhibits a universal transition rate to chaos (Feigenbaum behavior). In contrast, in an equivalent model without divisive inhibition, transition rates to chaos are not bounded by the universal constant (non-Feigenbaum behavior). This non-Feigenbaum behavior, when only subtractive inhibition is present, is linked to the interaction of bifurcation curves in the parameter space. Indeed, searching the parameter space showed that such interactions are impossible when divisive inhibition is included. Therefore, divisive inhibition prevents non-Feigenbaum behavior and, consequently, any abrupt transition to chaos. The results suggest that the divisive inhibition in neuronal networks could play a crucial role in keeping the states of order and chaos well separated and in preventing the onset of pathological neural dynamics. PMID:26465514

  20. An abrupt and prominent climatic reversal at 9.2 ka in the northeastern North America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hou, J.; Huang, Y.; Shuman, B. N.; Oswald, W.; Foster, D. R.

    2008-12-01

    Continental climate during the early Holocene (from 10 to 7 ka) is characterized by multiple abrupt climatic reversals such as the well-known 8.2 ka event that has been observed worldwide and attributed to the terminal collapse of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) in the North American continent. However, many episodes of meltwater releases occurred prior to the final collapse of LIS, their impact on the continental climate is much less understood. We present in this paper decadal-scale hydrogen isotopic records of aquatic and terrestrial plant biomarkers from Blood Pond, Massachusetts during the early Holocene. Our isotopic records infer a cooling of 3~4 degree between 9.3 and 9.1 ka against the millennial scale climate background, mainly induced by changes in precipitation seasonality. In comparison, the 8.2 ka event displays smaller amplitude of temperature cooling of 1~2 degree at our southern New England site. We interpret our observed climatic reversal at ~ 9.2 ka as representing increased proportion of winter precipitation in conjunction with a drier and cooler summer, triggered by slowdown in thermohaline circulation as a result of freshwater release from the proglacial lakes. We attribute the difference in climate response at 8.2 ka and 9.2 ka events to the configuration of LIS, with 9.2 ka LIS having a much stronger blocking effect on the moisture from the Gulf of Mexico during the summer. Our data suggest that the seasonality of the precipitation at the southern New England was highly sensitive to meltwater releases, especially prior to the final collapse of the LIS.

  1. An abrupt climate event in a coupled ocean-atmosphere simulation without external forcing.

    PubMed

    Hall, A; Stouffer, R J

    2001-01-11

    Temperature reconstructions from the North Atlantic region indicate frequent abrupt and severe climate fluctuations during the last glacial and Holocene periods. The driving forces for these events are unclear and coupled atmosphere-ocean models of global circulation have only simulated such events by inserting large amounts of fresh water into the northern North Atlantic Ocean. Here we report a drastic cooling event in a 15,000-yr simulation of global circulation with present-day climate conditions without the use of such external forcing. In our simulation, the annual average surface temperature near southern Greenland spontaneously fell 6-10 standard deviations below its mean value for a period of 30-40 yr. The event was triggered by a persistent northwesterly wind that transported large amounts of buoyant cold and fresh water into the northern North Atlantic Ocean. Oceanic convection shut down in response to this flow, concentrating the entire cooling of the northern North Atlantic by the colder atmosphere in the uppermost ocean layer. Given the similarity between our simulation and observed records of rapid cooling events, our results indicate that internal atmospheric variability alone could have generated the extreme climate disruptions in this region. PMID:11196636

  2. Theoretical basis for predicting climate-induced abrupt shifts in the oceans

    PubMed Central

    Beaugrand, Gregory

    2015-01-01

    Among the responses of marine species and their ecosystems to climate change, abrupt community shifts (ACSs), also called regime shifts, have often been observed. However, despite their effects for ecosystem functioning and both provisioning and regulating services, our understanding of the underlying mechanisms involved remains elusive. This paper proposes a theory showing that some ACSs originate from the interaction between climate-induced environmental changes and the species ecological niche. The theory predicts that a substantial stepwise shift in the thermal regime of a marine ecosystem leads indubitably to an ACS and explains why some species do not change during the phenomenon. It also explicates why the timing of ACSs may differ or why some studies may detect or not detect a shift in the same ecosystem, independently of the statistical method of detection and simply because they focus on different species or taxonomic groups. The present theory offers a way to predict future climate-induced community shifts and their potential associated trophic cascades and amplifications.

  3. A comparison of two methods for detecting abrupt changes in the variance of climatic time series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodionov, Sergei N.

    2016-06-01

    Two methods for detecting abrupt shifts in the variance - Integrated Cumulative Sum of Squares (ICSS) and Sequential Regime Shift Detector (SRSD) - have been compared on both synthetic and observed time series. In Monte Carlo experiments, SRSD outperformed ICSS in the overwhelming majority of the modeled scenarios with different sequences of variance regimes. The SRSD advantage was particularly apparent in the case of outliers in the series. On the other hand, SRSD has more parameters to adjust than ICSS, which requires more experience from the user in order to select those parameters properly. Therefore, ICSS can serve as a good starting point of a regime shift analysis. When tested on climatic time series, in most cases both methods detected the same change points in the longer series (252-787 monthly values). The only exception was the Arctic Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) series, when ICSS found one extra change point that appeared to be spurious. As for the shorter time series (66-136 yearly values), ICSS failed to detect any change points even when the variance doubled or tripled from one regime to another. For these time series, SRSD is recommended. Interestingly, all the climatic time series tested, from the Arctic to the tropics, had one thing in common: the last shift detected in each of these series was toward a high-variance regime. This is consistent with other findings of increased climate variability in recent decades.

  4. Agriculture, Settlement, and Abrupt Climate Change: The 4.2ka BP event in Northern Mesopotamia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ristvet, L.

    2003-12-01

    An abrupt aridification event at 4200 BP has been recorded in 41 paleoclimate proxies in the Old World, from Kilmanjaro, Tanzania to Rajasthan, India, East Asia and the Pacific. This event is particularly well defined for Western Asia, where it has been associated with the abandonment of settlements across the Fertile Crescent and the collapse of states on the Levantine coast and in the dry-farming plains of Northern Mesopotamia, including the Akkadian Empire. Adaptations to climate change are constrained by both local environmental and social factors. Agriculturalists, especially those living in pre-industrial societies, are particularly susceptible to changes in precipitation. The Tell Leilan Regional Survey, which systematically studied sites in a 1650km2 area of Northeastern Syria, records one set of adaptations to this event in an area where dry-farming provided the subsistence base. The survey transect crosses ecotones, from the present 500mm isohyet in the North to the 250mm isohyet in the South, and contains diverse wadi systems, ground water resources, soil profiles, and an ancient marsh/lake-- all of which allow this region to be taken as a microcosm of Northern Mesopotamia. In order to contextualize our study of human response to abrupt climate change, it is necessary to consider how the economic and social systems that were previously in place were transformed by this event. This study attempts to quantify climate change and model its effects on agricultural, pastoral, and settlement systems in Northeastern Syria from 2400-1700 BC. From 2400-2300 BC, optimal climate conditions coincided with the consolidation of an indigenous state. The next century witnessed the Akkadian conquest and imperialization of the Habur plains, which resulted in both the intensification and extensification of agro-production. During the next 300 years, (2200-1900 BC), rainfall plummeted to 70% of the climatic optimum, triggering the abandonment of cities along with their

  5. Reducing The Risk Of Abrupt Climate Change: Emission Corridors Preserving The Thermohaline Circulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zickfeld, K.

    Paleo-reconstructions have shown that large and abrupt climate changes have occurred throughout the last ice-age cycles. This evidence, supplemented by insights into the complex and nonlinear nature of the climate system, gives raise to the concern that anthropogenic forcing may trigger such events in the future. A prominent example for such a potential climatic shift is the collapse of the North Atlantic thermohaline circu- lation (THC), which would cause a major cooling of the northern North Atlantic and north-western Europe and considerable regional sea level rise, with possibly severe consequences on, e.g., fisheries, agriculture and ecosystems. In this paper we present emission corridors for the 21st century preserving the THC. Emission corridors embrace the range of future emissions beyond which either the THC collapses or the mitigation burden becomes intolerable. They are calculated along the conceptual and methodological lines of the tolerable windows approach. We investigate the sensitivity of the emission corridors to the main uncertain parame- ters (climate and North Atlantic hydrological sensitivities as well as emissions of non CO_2 greenhouse gases). Results show a high dependence of the size of the emis- sion corridors on hydrological and climate sensitivities. For the best-guess values of both parameters we find that the emission corridors are wider than the range spanned by the SRES emissions scenarios. Thus, no immediate mitigation seems necessary in order to preserve the THC. For high but still realistic values of the sensitivities, however, even the low SRES emissions scenarios transgress the corridor boundaries. These findings imply that under 'business as usual' a non-negligible risk of either a THC collapse or an intolerable mitigation burden exists.

  6. Impact of Climate and Fires on Abrupt Permafrost Thaw in Alaskan Tundra

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chipman, M. L.; Reents, C.; Greenberg, J. A.; Hu, F.

    2015-12-01

    Thermo-erosion from abrupt permafrost thaw is a key pulse disturbance in the Arctic that may impact the global carbon cycle. Abrupt thaw can occur when the permafrost active layer expands in response to climate warming and/or increased wildfire activity. Understanding these drivers of thermo-erosion is necessary to anticipate feedbacks in the Arctic, where summer temperature and fire frequency are predicted to increase. We examine modern and late-Holocene thermo-erosion in high-fire (Noatak) and low-fire (North Slope) tundra ecoregions of Alaska using a combination of remote-sensing and paleo-records. Lakes with active thaw features were identified through Landsat-7 image classification and time-series analysis based on observed 0.52-0.60 μm reflectance peaks following slump formation. We identified 1067 and 1705 lakes with active features between CE 2000-2012 in the Noatak and North Slope ecoregions, respectively. The density of features was higher in the highly flammable Noatak (0.04 versus 0.01 features km-2, respectively), suggesting that warmer climate and/or fires likely promote high thermo-erosional activity at present. To assess modern signals of thermo-erosion and identify past events, we analyzed soil profiles and lake-sediment cores from both ecoregions using X-ray fluorescence. The ratios of Ca:K and Ca:Sr increased with depth in permafrost soils, were higher in soils from younger versus older slump surfaces, and were significantly correlated with the ratio of carbonate to feldspar and clay minerals in lake sediments (r=0.96 and 0.93, P<0.0001, n=15). We interpret past increases in Ca:K, Ca:Sr, and δ13C as enhanced weathering of carbonate-rich permafrost soils associated with thermo-erosion. At the North Slope site, we identified ten episodes of thermoerosion over the past 6000 years and found strong correspondence to summer temperature trends. Events were more frequent at the Noatak site, where 15 thermo-erosional episodes and 26 fires occurred over

  7. The Role of the Tropics in Last Glacial Abrupt Climate Change from a West Antarctic Ice Core

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, T. R.; White, J. W. C.; Steig, E. J.; Cuffey, K. M.; Vaughn, B. H.; Morris, V. A.; Vasileios, G.; Markle, B. R.; Schoenemann, S. W.

    2014-12-01

    Debate exists as to whether last glacial abrupt climate changes in Greenland, and associated changes in Antarctica, had a high-latitude or tropical trigger. An ultra high-resolution water isotope record from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide (WAIS Divide) Ice Core Project has been developed with three key water isotope parameters that offer insight into this debate: δD, δ18O, and deuterium excess (dxs). δD and δ18O are a proxy for local temperature and regional atmospheric circulation, while dxs is primarily a proxy for sea surface temperature at the ice core's moisture source(s) (relative humidity and wind speed also play a role). We build on past studies that show West Antarctic climate is modulated by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection mechanisms, which originate in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, to infer how past ENSO changes may have influenced abrupt climate change. Using frequency analysis of the water isotope data, we can reconstruct the amplitude of ENSO-scale climate oscillations in the 2-15 year range within temporal windows as low as 100 years. Our analysis uses a back diffusion model that estimates initial amplitudes before decay in the firn column. We combine δD, δ18O, and dxs frequency analysis to evaluate how climate variability at WAIS Divide is influenced by tropical climate forcing. Our results should ultimately offer insight into the role of the tropics in abrupt climate change.

  8. Middle East coastal ecosystem response to middle-to-late Holocene abrupt climate changes

    PubMed Central

    Kaniewski, D.; Paulissen, E.; Van Campo, E.; Al-Maqdissi, M.; Bretschneider, J.; Van Lerberghe, K.

    2008-01-01

    The Holocene vegetation history of the northern coastal Arabian Peninsula is of long-standing interest, as this Mediterranean/semiarid/arid region is known to be particularly sensitive to climatic changes. Detailed palynological data from an 800-cm alluvial sequence cored in the Jableh plain in northwest Syria have been used to reconstruct the vegetation dynamics in the coastal lowlands and the nearby Jabal an Nuşayriyah mountains for the period 2150 to 550 B.C. Corresponding with the 4.2 to 3.9 and 3.5 to 2.5 cal kyr BP abrupt climate changes (ACCs), two large-scale shifts to a more arid climate have been recorded. These two ACCs had different impacts on the vegetation assemblages in coastal Syria. The 3.5 to 2.5 cal kyr BP ACC is drier and lasted longer than the 4.2 to 3.9 cal kyr BP ACC, and is characterized by the development of a warm steppe pollen-derived biome (1100–800 B.C.) and a peak of hot desert pollen-derived biome at 900 B.C. The 4.2 to 3.9 cal kyr BP ACC is characterized by a xerophytic woods and shrubs pollen-derived biome ca. 2050 B.C. The impact of the 3.5 to 2.5 cal kyr BP ACC on human occupation and cultural development is important along the Syrian coast with the destruction of Ugarit and the collapse of the Ugarit kingdom at ca. 1190 to 1185 B.C. PMID:18772385

  9. Reducing abrupt climate change risk using the Montreal Protocol and other regulatory actions to complement cuts in CO2 emissions

    PubMed Central

    Molina, Mario; Zaelke, Durwood; Sarma, K. Madhava; Andersen, Stephen O.; Ramanathan, Veerabhadran; Kaniaru, Donald

    2009-01-01

    Current emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) have already committed the planet to an increase in average surface temperature by the end of the century that may be above the critical threshold for tipping elements of the climate system into abrupt change with potentially irreversible and unmanageable consequences. This would mean that the climate system is close to entering if not already within the zone of “dangerous anthropogenic interference” (DAI). Scientific and policy literature refers to the need for “early,” “urgent,” “rapid,” and “fast-action” mitigation to help avoid DAI and abrupt climate changes. We define “fast-action” to include regulatory measures that can begin within 2–3 years, be substantially implemented in 5–10 years, and produce a climate response within decades. We discuss strategies for short-lived non-CO2 GHGs and particles, where existing agreements can be used to accomplish mitigation objectives. Policy makers can amend the Montreal Protocol to phase down the production and consumption of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) with high global warming potential. Other fast-action strategies can reduce emissions of black carbon particles and precursor gases that lead to ozone formation in the lower atmosphere, and increase biosequestration, including through biochar. These and other fast-action strategies may reduce the risk of abrupt climate change in the next few decades by complementing cuts in CO2 emissions. PMID:19822751

  10. Deglacial abrupt climate change in the Atlantic Warm Pool: A Gulf of Mexico perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, Carlie; Flower, Benjamin P.; Hastings, David W.; Guilderson, Thomas P.; Quinn, Kelly A.; Goddard, Ethan A.

    2010-12-01

    During the last deglaciation, Greenland ice core and North Atlantic sediment records exhibit multiple abrupt climate events including the Younger Dryas cold episode (12.9-11.7 ka). However, evidence for the presence of the Younger Dryas in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) and the relationship between GOM sea surface temperature (SST) and high-latitude climate change is less clear. We present new Mg/Ca-SST records from two varieties of the planktonic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber (white and pink) to assess northern GOM SST history from approximately 18.4-10.8 ka. Thirty-five accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) 14C dates from Orca Basin core MD02-2550 provide excellent age control and document high sedimentation rates (˜40 cm/kyr). G. ruber (white and pink) Mg/Ca-SST data exhibit increases (˜4.6 ± 0.6°C and ˜2.2 ± 0.5°C, respectively) from at least 17.8-16.6 ka, with nearly decadal resolution that are early relative to the onset of the Bolling-Allerod interstadial. Moreover, G. ruber (white) SST decreases at 16.0-14.7 ka (˜1.0 ± 0.5°C) and 12.8-11.6 ka (˜2.4 ± 0.6°C) correlate to the Oldest and Younger Dryas in Greenland and Cariaco Basin. The G. ruber (pink) SST record, which reflects differences in seasonality and/or depth habitat, is often not in phase with G. ruber (white) and closely resembles Antarctic air temperature records. Overall, it appears that Orca Basin SST records follow Antarctic air temperature early in the deglacial sequence and exhibit enhanced seasonality during Greenland stadials.

  11. Abrupt Climate Change Caused by Global Fires from a Large Meteor Impact

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bardeen, C.; Toon, O. B.; Garcia, R. R.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Wolf, E. T.

    2015-12-01

    Global or near-global fires like those that are thought to have occurred after the Chicxulub asteroid impact are associated with abrupt climate change and the K-Pg mass extinction event. Using the Community Earth System Model (CESM), a three-dimensional coupled climate model with interactive chemistry, we have simulated the climate response to global fires assuming a burden of 70,000 Tg, as estimated from the K-Pg layer sediments by Wolbach et al. (1988). Soot aerosols are lofted by solar heating and remain in the atmosphere for about 6 years, warming the stratosphere by more than 240 K and suppressing completely solar radiation at the surface for 2 years. Global average land surface temperatures cool by -28 K after 3 years and ocean temperatures by -11 K after 4 years. Precipitation is reduced by 80 % for 5 years, and the ozone column is reduced by 80 % for 4 years. The tropical tropopause cold point disappears for a few years, leading to water vapor mixing ratios of > 1000 ppmv in the stratosphere. There is a rapid recovery around year 6, when the soot is removed by wet deposition as stratospheric water condenses and precipitates, but this is followed by a peak in the UV Index in the tropics of over 40 before stratospheric ozone recovers. Ocean temperature cools by more than -2 K to a depth of 300 m, and sea ice develops in the Black Sea, Caspian Sea, and Baltic Sea. Global fires, two years of darkness, extreme surface cooling, significant ocean cooling, increases in sea ice extent and a large short-term increase in UV Index would have been catastrophic for many life forms. This work is the first step in an effort to simulate the climatic effects of all of the aerosols and gases that may have been generated by the Chicxulub impact in a model that has been configured for late-Cretaceous conditions to help assess the role of the Chicxulub impact in the K-Pg extinction.

  12. Abrupt changes in the Northern Hemisphere large-scale flow in the summer to winter seasonal transition

    SciTech Connect

    Houghton, D.D.; Keller, L.M.

    1997-11-01

    The purpose of this study is to quantitatively identify the overall characteristics of the abrupt changes in atmospheric circulation patterns during the extratropical transition season from summer to winter. Both observations and comprehensive global atmospheric model simulations are examined. Emphasis is placed on the large scale and overall Northern Hemisphere circulation characteristics. A testing procedure for abrupt changes is developed, incorporating several established approaches. The analysis found significant abrupt change events in all the observational and model simulation years. The mean dates for the changes are September 7 and 22 for the observations and model, respectively, but there is considerable variability in the dates from year to year. The large scale patterns associated with the abrupt change have a hemispheric scope with centers of activity in the western Pacific and Atlantic sectors. The model captures the general nature of the abrupt shifts. However, the model simulations have smaller magnitudes in kinetic energy values and changes than observed, especially in the Atlantic Ocean and central Asia areas. These limitations should not negate the utility of the model for process studies. 17 refs., 7 figs.

  13. Abrupt Climatic Events Observed in Organic-Rich Sediments From Lake Tanganyika, Tropical East Africa, Over the Past 50 kyr

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burnett, A. P.; Weyhenmeyer, C. E.; Scholz, C. A.; Swart, P. K.

    2006-12-01

    Abrupt climate changes such as Dansgaard-Oeschger Cycles and Heinrich Events were first detected in high- latitude records, but an increasing number of studies suggest that these rapid changes are actually global events. The degree to which the tropics drive, control and/or respond to such rapid changes is still poorly understood due to a scarcity of data from low-latitude regions. A recently acquired sediment core from Lake Tanganyika, East Africa, provides a unique archive to study abrupt climate events in the tropics throughout the last glaciation. The core provides a continuous, undisturbed and high resolution climate record over the past 100 kyr. An age-depth model based on 25 new radiocarbon dates provides a solid, high-resolution chronology for the past 50 kyr. Throughout this time, several rapid changes in paleoclimate proxy data are observed along the core. Sedimentation rates remained fairly constant from the Holocene until the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) but increased abruptly from ~80 mm/1000 yr to ~150 mm/1000 yr around 18 kyr BP. At the same time, the sediment record reveals a sudden increase in total organic carbon (TOC) from 4% to 12% indicating a rapid increase in organic matter contributions at the end of the LGM. Abrupt changes in TOC and δ13C values are also found at ~38 kyr, ~30 kyr and ~16 kyr BP, suggesting a possible link to Heinrich events 4, 3 and 1, respectively. Forthcoming very high-resolution analyses, to augment existing low-resolution data, include δ13C, δ15N, C/N ratios and TOC values. Furthermore, TEX86 measurements will be carried out to determine whether the observed changes in organic matter contributions are associated with changes in water temperatures. In combination with the solid 14C chronology, the new data will allow us to precisely determine the onset, timing and nature of abrupt changes and evaluate them in the global context.

  14. Abrupt and gradual transitions between low and hyperexcited firing frequencies in neuronal models with fast synaptic excitation: A comparative study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rotstein, Horacio G.

    2013-12-01

    Hyperexcitability of neuronal networks is one of the hallmarks of epileptic brain seizure generation, and results from a net imbalance between excitation and inhibition that promotes excessive abnormal firing frequencies. The transition between low and high firing frequencies as the levels of recurrent AMPA excitation change can occur either gradually or abruptly. We used modeling, numerical simulations, and dynamical systems tools to investigate the biophysical and dynamic mechanisms that underlie these two identified modes of transition in recurrently connected neurons via AMPA excitation. We compare our results and demonstrate that these two modes of transition are qualitatively different and can be linked to different intrinsic properties of the participating neurons.

  15. "What Controls the Structure and Stability of the Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation: Implications for Abrupt Climate Change?"

    SciTech Connect

    Fedorov, Alexey

    2013-11-23

    The central goal of this research project is to understand the properties of the ocean meridional overturning circulation (MOC) – a topic critical for understanding climate variability and stability on a variety of timescales (from decadal to centennial and longer). Specifically, we have explored various factors that control the MOC stability and decadal variability in the Atlantic and the ocean thermal structure in general, including the possibility abrupt climate change. We have also continued efforts on improving the performance of coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMs.

  16. Abrupt climate change: Past, present and the search for precursors as an aid to predicting events in the future (Hans Oeschger Medal Lecture)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mayewski, Paul Andrew

    2016-04-01

    The demonstration using Greenland ice cores that abrupt shifts in climate, Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events, existed during the last glacial period has had a transformational impact on our understanding of climate change in the naturally forced world. The demonstration that D-O events are globally distributed and that they operated during previous glacial periods has led to extensive research into the relative hemispheric timing and causes of these events. The emergence of civilization during our current interglacial, the Holocene, has been attributed to the "relative climate quiescence" of this period relative to the massive, abrupt shifts in climate that characterized glacial periods in the form of D-O events. But, everything is relative and climate change is no exception. The demise of past civilizations, (eg., Mesopatamian, Mayan and Norse) is integrally tied to abrupt climate change (ACC) events operating at regional scales. Regionally to globally distributed ACC events have punctuated the Holocene and extreme events have always posed significant challenges to humans and ecosystems. Current warming of the Arctic, in terms of length of the summer season, is as abrupt and massive, albeit not as extensive, as the transition from the last major D-O event, the Younger Dryas into the Holocene (Mayewski et al., 2013). Tropospheric source greenhouse gas rise and ozone depletion in the stratosphere over Antarctica are triggers for the modern advent of human emission instigated ACCs. Arctic warming and Antarctic ozone depletion have resulted in significance changes to the atmospheric circulation systems that transport heat, moisture, and pollutants in both hemispheres. Climate models offer a critical tool for assessing trends, but they cannot as yet predict ACC events, as evidenced by the inability of these models to predict the rapid onset of Arctic warming and resulting changes in atmospheric circulation; and in the model vs past analog differences in projections for

  17. Transient Adjustment of the global climate to an abrupt Northern North Atlantic cooling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, G.; Chang, P.; Panetta, R.; Saravanan, R.

    2013-12-01

    The Thermohaline Circulation (THC) is thought to play a key role in abrupt changes in Earth climate. In cold periods such as the Younger Dryas, the THC was much weaker than today. In an experiment with a fully coupled CCSM3 model an artificial freshwater flux is added to the Northern North Atlantic Ocean surface, which weakens the THC. The North Atlantic Ocean surface cools almost instantly after the freshwater flux onset. This cooling is subsequently spread throughout the Northern Hemisphere, resulting in the ITCZ moving southward. In the weakening THC, heat carried by the THC from Southern Hemisphere to the Northern Hemisphere is reduced, resulting in a cooler Northern Hemisphere. It is still questioned what role the atmosphere plays in this process. There are two possible ways the atmosphere may change the ocean surface temperature. One is that the wind changes the ocean surface wind-driven circulation, leading to a change to the ocean heat budget. Another is that the atmosphere changes the ocean-atmosphere heat flux directly. Here we look into the second possibility by comparing the effects of freshwater flux in a fully coupled model to the effects of the same flux in a model constructed by coupling an atmospheric general circulation model (CAM3) to a thermodynamic slab ocean model. With use of appropriate Q-fluxes, the coupled model with the slab ocean has the same climatology as the fully coupled CCSM3 model. Perturbation Q-fluxes are constructed for the fresh water flux experiments using a restoring technique. We find that the atmosphere interacting with a thermodynamic slab ocean can spread the cooling from the Northern North Atlantic and cause the ITCZ to move southward, and that there is a cooling front propagating southward with a speed depending on the mixed layer depth: a deeper mixed layer depth results in a slower propagation. By applying the Q-flux perturbation only in the Northern North Atlantic Ocean, the effect of the ocean circulation change on

  18. A Generalized Stability Analysis of the AMOC in Earth System Models: Implication for Decadal Variability and Abrupt Climate Change

    SciTech Connect

    Fedorov, Alexey V.; Fedorov, Alexey

    2015-01-14

    The central goal of this research project was to understand the mechanisms of decadal and multi-decadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as related to climate variability and abrupt climate change within a hierarchy of climate models ranging from realistic ocean models to comprehensive Earth system models. Generalized Stability Analysis, a method that quantifies the transient and asymptotic growth of perturbations in the system, is one of the main approaches used throughout this project. The topics we have explored range from physical mechanisms that control AMOC variability to the factors that determine AMOC predictability in the Earth system models, to the stability and variability of the AMOC in past climates.

  19. Abrupt climate variability in the North Atlantic region: Did the icebergs do it?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barker, S.; Chen, J.; Gong, X.; Jonkers, L.; Knorr, G.; Thornalley, D. J.

    2014-12-01

    We present high resolution records of temperature and ice rafted debris over the last ~440Kyr from a sediment core retrieved from the NE Atlantic. Our records reveal that episodes of ice rafting typically occurred after abrupt cooling at the site. Because the site is sensitive to the earliest phases of ice rafting as recorded by other sites across the wider Atlantic, this suggests that icebergs were not the trigger for North Atlantic cold events. Moreover we find a different relationship between cooling and the arrival of rafted ice at a site ~750km to the SE of ours. We suggest that asynchronous cooling between these locations can be explained by the more gradual southward migration of the North Atlantic polar front. We describe a mechanism that can explain the occurrence of abrupt stadial events over Greenland as a non-linear response as regional cooling continues beyond the threshold necessary for sustaining ocean circulation in its 'warm' mode with active convection north of Iceland. Thus while the freshwater derived from melting icebergs may provide a positive feedback for enhancing and prolonging stadial conditions, it is probably not the trigger for northern stadial events.

  20. The fluvial system response to abrupt climate change during the last cold stage: the Upper Pleistocene River Thames fluvial succession at Ashton Keynes, UK

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lewis, S. G.; Maddy, D.; Scaife, R. G.

    2001-02-01

    The last interglacial-glacial cycle (125-10 ka BP) is characterised by numerous rapid shifts in global climate on sub-Milankovitch timescales, recorded in the ocean and ice core records. These climatic fluctuations are clearly recorded in those European terrestrial sedimentary sequences that span this time period without interruption. In the UK, only fragmentary Upper Pleistocene sequences exist, mainly within the fluvial archive of the major river systems such as the Thames. The response of the upper River Thames to abrupt fluctuations in climate is documented in the fluvial sediments beneath the Floodplain Terrace (Northmoor Member of the Upper Thames Formation) at Ashton Keynes, Wiltshire. A number of criteria are set out by which significant changes in the fluvial system may be established from the sedimentological, palaeoecological and geochronological information contained within the succession. The sedimentary succession is divisible into four facies associations, on the basis of their sedimentology and bounding surface characteristics. These represent distinct phases of fluvial activity at the site and allow changes in fluvial style to be inferred. Palaeoecological reconstructions from pollen analysis of peats within the sequence provides an indication of the nature and direction of Late Glacial environmental change and optically stimulated luminescence and radiocarbon dating methods provide chronological control on the sequence. These data suggest that major changes in fluvial style are recorded within the succession, which can be related to the climatic fluctuations that took place on the oxygen isotope stage 5a/4 transition (approximately 70 ka BP) and the Devensian Late Glacial climatic warm-cold-warm oscillation (13-11 ka BP). The changes in fluvial style are a result of variations in sediment supply to the river resulting from changes in slope stability, vegetation cover and cold-climate mass movement processes and variations in discharge regime

  1. Percolation in interdependent and interconnected networks: abrupt change from second- to first-order transitions.

    PubMed

    Hu, Yanqing; Ksherim, Baruch; Cohen, Reuven; Havlin, Shlomo

    2011-12-01

    Robustness of two coupled networks systems has been studied separately only for dependency coupling [Buldyrev et al., Nature (London) 464, 1025 (2010)] and only for connectivity coupling [Leicht and D'Souza, e-print arXiv:0907.0894]. Here we study, using a percolation approach, a more realistic coupled networks system where both interdependent and interconnected links exist. We find rich and unusual phase-transition phenomena including hybrid transition of mixed first and second order, i.e., discontinuities like in a first-order transition of the giant component followed by a continuous decrease to zero like in a second-order transition. Moreover, we find unusual discontinuous changes from second-order to first-order transition as a function of the dependency coupling between the two networks. PMID:22304164

  2. Percolation in interdependent and interconnected networks: Abrupt change from second- to first-order transitions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, Yanqing; Ksherim, Baruch; Cohen, Reuven; Havlin, Shlomo

    2011-12-01

    Robustness of two coupled networks systems has been studied separately only for dependency coupling [Buldyrev , Nature (London)NATUAS0028-083610.1038/nature08932 464, 1025 (2010)] and only for connectivity coupling [Leicht and D’Souza, e-print arXiv:0907.0894]. Here we study, using a percolation approach, a more realistic coupled networks system where both interdependent and interconnected links exist. We find rich and unusual phase-transition phenomena including hybrid transition of mixed first and second order, i.e., discontinuities like in a first-order transition of the giant component followed by a continuous decrease to zero like in a second-order transition. Moreover, we find unusual discontinuous changes from second-order to first-order transition as a function of the dependency coupling between the two networks.

  3. Trends in the emitter-base bias dependence of the average base transit time through abrupt heterojunction bipolar transistors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, T.; Cahay, M.; Roenker, K.

    1996-11-01

    The average base transit time is computed using a current impulse response technique for three typical abrupt Npn heterojunction bipolar transistors as a function of the emitter-base bias, VBE. This technique is based on a hybrid model of carrier transport incorporating a quantum-mechanical analysis of carrier injection at the emitter-base junction and a Monte Carlo analysis of base transport. For typical AlGaAs/GaAs and InP/InGaAs structures, the base transit time first increases with VBE, reaches a maximum, and then decreases towards a value close to the one predicted using a semi-Maxwellian injection of carriers into the base at an energy equal to the emitter-base conduction band spike. For a typical InAlAs/InGaAs structure, the average base transit time is found to decrease with an increase in VBE. For all structures, we show that there is a correlation between the bias dependence of the average base transit time and the bias dependence of the average number of collisions per carrier (calculated for carriers transmitted across the base).

  4. Abrupt Climate Change in the Arctic (and Beyond): An Update (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alley, R. B.

    2013-12-01

    Our understanding of future Arctic change is informed by the history of past changes, which often have been both large and abrupt. The well-known ice-age events such as the Younger Dryas show how sea-ice changes can amplify forcing to produce very large responses, with wintertime sea ice especially important. These changes are increasingly seen to have played a central role in the ice-age cycling through their global impact on CO2 storage in the deep ocean. The Heinrich events reveal processes of ice-sheet/ocean interaction, some of which are being played out in Greenland and Antarctica now, and which may have large future effects on sea-level rise. The paleoclimatic record plus physical understanding greatly reduce the worst worries about instabilities from methane stored in cold places, but tend to support a role in amplifying future warming. Overall, the very large impacts of past Arctic changes, and the likelihood that future changes under business-as-usual fossil-fuel emissions will be unprecedented in combined size and speed, raise important questions.

  5. Quantifying Climate Feedbacks from Abrupt Changes in High-Latitude Trace-Gas Emissions

    SciTech Connect

    Schlosser, Courtney Adam; Walter-Anthony, Katey; Zhuang, Qianlai; Melillo, Jerry

    2013-04-26

    Our overall goal was to quantify the potential for threshold changes in natural emission rates of trace gases, particularly methane and carbon dioxide, from pan-arctic terrestrial systems under the spectrum of anthropogenically forced climate warming, and the extent to which these emissions provide a strong feedback mechanism to global climate warming. This goal is motivated under the premise that polar amplification of global climate warming will induce widespread thaw and degradation of the permafrost, and would thus cause substantial changes in the extent of wetlands and lakes, especially thermokarst (thaw) lakes, over the Arctic. Through a coordinated effort of field measurements, model development, and numerical experimentation with an integrated assessment model framework, we have investigated the following hypothesis: There exists a climate-warming threshold beyond which permafrost degradation becomes widespread and thus instigates strong and/or sharp increases in methane emissions (via thermokarst lakes and wetland expansion). These would outweigh any increased uptake of carbon (e.g. from peatlands) and would result in a strong, positive feedback to global climate warming.

  6. Abrupt climate change around 4 ka BP: Role of the Thermohaline circulation as indicated by a GCM experiment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Shaowu; Zhou, Tianjun; Cai, Jingning; Zhu, Jinhong; Xie, Zhihui; Gong, Daoyi

    2004-04-01

    A great deal of palaeoenvironmental and palaeoclimatic evidence suggests that a predominant temperature drop and an aridification occurred at ca. 4.0 ka BP. Palaeoclimate studies in China support this dedution. The collapse of ancient civilizations at ca. 4.0 ka BP in the Nile Valley and Mesopotamia has been attributed to climate-induced aridification. A widespread alternation of the ancient cultures was also found in China at ca. 4.0 ka BP in concert with the collapse of the civilizations in the Old World. Palaeoclimatic studies indicate that the abrupt climate change at 4.0 ka BP is one of the realizations of the cold phase in millennial scale climate oscillations, which may be related to the modulation of the Thermohaline Circulation (THC) over the Atlantic Ocean. Therefore, this study conducts a numerical experiment of a GCM with SST forcing to simulate the impact of the weakening of the THC. Results show a drop in temperature from North Europe, the northern middle East Asia, and northern East Asia and a significant reduction of precipitation in East Africa, the Middle East, the Indian Peninsula, and the Yellow River Valley. This seems to support the idea that coldness and aridification at ca. 4.0 ka BP was caused by the weakening of the THC.

  7. Iceberg discharges and oceanic circulation changes during glacial abrupt climate changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alvarez-Solas, Jorge; Robinson, Alexander; Banderas, Rubén; Montoya, Marisa

    2015-04-01

    Proxy data reveal the existence of episodes of increased deposition of ice-rafted debris in the North Atlantic Ocean during the last glacial period. These are interpreted as massive iceberg discharges mainly from the Laurentide Ice Sheet. Although these have long been attributed to self-sustained ice sheet oscillations, growing evidence points to an active role of the oceanic circulation. Here we will present simulations of the last glacial period carried out with a hybrid ice sheet-ice shelf model. Two mechanisms producing iceberg discharges are compared. First, we reproduce the classic binge-purge by which the iceberg surges are produced thanks to the existence of an internal thermo-mechanical feedback that allows the ice sheet to behave under an oscillatory regime. Second, our ice-sheet model is forced by an oceanic warming index derived from proxy data that accounts for the impact of past ocean circulation changes on ocean temperatures. In this case, the model generates a time series of iceberg calving that agrees with ice-rafted debris records over the past 80 ka. We compare the two theories and discuss their advantages and weaknesses in terms of both the robustness of the physics on which they are based and their comparison with proxies. This comparison highlights the importance of considering past oceanic circulation changes in order to understand the ice-sheet dynamics. However, the ultimate processes determining abrupt changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) remain elusive. Therefore we will also analyze several proposed mechanisms that aims to explain such AMOC reorganizations, focusing on those that do not require freshwater flux forcing.

  8. Abrupt transitions during sustained explosive eruptions: Examples from the 1912 eruption of Novarupta, Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Adams, N.K.; Houghton, B.F.; Hildreth, W.

    2006-01-01

    Plinian/ignimbrite activity stopped briefly and abruptly 16 and 45 h after commencement of the 1912 Novarupta eruption defining three episodes of explosive volcanism before finally giving way after 60 h to effusion of lava domes. We focus here on the processes leading to the termination of the second and third of these three episodes. Early erupted pumice from both episodes show a very similar range in bulk vesicularity, but the modal values markedly decrease and the vesicularity range widens toward the end of Episode III. Clasts erupted at the end of each episode represent textural extremes; at the end of Episode II, clasts have very thin glass walls and a predominance of large bubbles, whereas at the end of Episode III, clasts have thick interstices and more small bubbles. Quantitatively, all clasts have very similar vesicle size distributions which show a division in the bubble population at 30 ??m vesicle diameter and cumulative number densities ranging from 107-109 cm-3. Patterns seen in histograms of volume fraction and the trends in the vesicle size data can be explained by coalescence signatures superimposed on an interval of prolonged nucleation and free growth of bubbles. Compared to experimental data for bubble growth in silicic melts, the high 1912 number densities suggest homogeneous nucleation was a significant if not dominant mechanism of bubble nucleation in the dacitic magma. The most distinct clast populations occurred toward the end of Plinian activity preceding effusive dome growth. Distributions skewed toward small sizes, thick walls, and teardrop vesicle shapes are indicative of bubble wall collapse marking maturation of the melt and onset of processes of outgassing. The data suggest that the superficially similar pauses in the 1912 eruption which marked the ends of episodes II and III had very different causes. Through Episode III, the trend in vesicle size data reflects a progressive shift in the degassing process from rapid magma ascent and

  9. Abrupt transitions between gyroscopic and internal gravity waves: the mid-latitude case

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Haren, Hans

    The large-scale vertical density stratification, represented by buoyancy frequency N, is generally very stable in the upper half of the ocean, and relatively weak in the lower half. However, closer inspection of density profiles demonstrates steps rather than a smooth increase with depth. As is demonstrated here using Richardson number, geostrophic balance and slantwise convective mixing arguments, these layers have a limited set of minimum, weak stratification, N-values Nmin indicating the transition between stably stratified and convective layers. Adopting the viewpoint that the transition occurs for neutral stability in the direction of Earth's rotation ) and (iii) Nmin = 4fh, both under nonlinear stability, where horizontal component fh = 2 sin , because the effect of fh is the tilting of vortex tubes away from the local vertical in the direction of Ω. The above explains very well deep-ocean North-Atlantic and Mediterranean observations on transitions in conductivity-temperature with depth profiles, inertial polarization and near-inertial shear. The latter peaks at sub-inertial 0.97f, which is associated with the lower inertio-gravity wave limit for Nmin = 4fh, thereby stressing the importance of fh for the dominant physics associated with mixing in the ocean.

  10. Abrupt Climate Change During the Last Glacial Cycle Based on Gulf of Mexico Sediments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Flower, B. P.; Hastings, D. W.; Hill, H.; Quinn, T. M.

    2003-12-01

    Evidence is emerging that the tropical climate system played a major role in past global climate change during the last glacial cycle. However, existing studies indicate asynchronous temperature variability in the western equatorial Atlantic, complicating the identification of causal mechanisms. Because the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) is linked to the equatorial Atlantic, sea-surface temperature (SST) records from the GOM help assess the phasing between low- and high-latitude Atlantic climate. High sedimentation rates of >40 cm/k.y. and laminated sediments in Orca Basin allow sub-centennial-scale resolution. Paired δ 18O and Mg/Ca data on the planktic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber from core EN32-PC6 are used to separate deglacial changes in SST and δ 18Oseawater due to low-salinity meltwater from the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS). Mg-SST increases by >3.0° C between 17.2 and 15.2 ka (calendar years) encompassing Heinrich Event 1 in the North Atlantic. Comparison to polar ice core records indicates GOM SST was not in phase with Greenland air temperature, consistent with thermohaline circulation modulation of Atlantic climate. This warming represents the bulk of the 4.2+/-0.9° C increase from the last glacial maximum (24.0+/-0.8° C) to early Holocene (29.0+/-0.4° C). Subtracting temperature and ice-volume effects from Gs. ruber δ 18O reveals two episodes of LIS meltwater input, one of >1.5% from ca. 16.2-15.7 ka and a second major spike of >2% from ca. 15.2-13.0 ka that encompassed meltwater pulse 1A (mwp-1A) and peaked at ca. 13.4 ka. These results suggest that (1) subtropical Atlantic SST warming preceded peak LIS decay and mwp-1A by >2 k.y., (2) thermohaline circulation may have modulated Atlantic climate on the millennial scale during the last deglaciation, and (3) major LIS meltwater input to the GOM ended before North Atlantic Deep Water suppression during the Younger Dryas. A new 31.79 m Calypso piston core collected in July 2002 on the R/V Marion Dufresne

  11. Abrupt climate variability of eastern Anatolia vegetation during the last glacial

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pickarski, N.; Kwiecien, O.; Langgut, D.; Litt, T.

    2015-07-01

    Detailed analyses of the Lake Van pollen and stable oxygen isotope record allow the identification of millennial-scale vegetation and environmental changes in eastern Anatolia throughout the last glacial. The climate within the last glacial period (∼75-15 ka BP) was cold and dry, with low arboreal pollen (AP) levels. The driest and coldest period corresponds to Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 2 (∼28-14.5 ka BP) dominated by the highest values of xerophytic steppe vegetation. Our high-resolution multi proxy record shows rapid expansions and contractions that mimic the stadial-interstadial pattern of the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events as recorded in the Greenland ice cores, and thus, provide a linkage to North Atlantic climate oscillations. Periods of reduced moisture availability characterized at Lake Van by enhanced xerophytic species correlates well with increase in ice-rafted debris (IRD) and a decrease of sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Atlantic. Furthermore, comparison with the marine realm reveals that the complex atmosphere-ocean interaction can be recognized by the strength and position of the westerlies in eastern Anatolia. Influenced by rough topography at Lake Van, the expansion of temperate species (e.g. deciduous Quercus) was stronger during interstadials DO 19, 17-16, 14, 12 and 8. However, Heinrich events (HE), characterized by highest concentrations of ice-rafted debris in marine sediments, are identified in eastern Anatolia by AP values not lower and high steppe components not more abundant than during DO stadials. In addition, this work is a first attempt to establish a continuous microscopic charcoal record over the last glacial in the Near East, which documents an initial immediate response to millennial-scale climate and environmental variability and enables the shed light on the history of fire activity during the last glacial.

  12. Smooth Functional Transition along a Mutational Pathway with an Abrupt Protein Fold Switch

    PubMed Central

    Holzgräfe, Christian; Wallin, Stefan

    2014-01-01

    Recent protein design experiments have demonstrated that proteins can migrate between folds through the accumulation of substitution mutations without visiting disordered or nonfunctional points in sequence space. To explore the biophysical mechanism underlying such transitions we use a three-letter continuous protein model with seven atoms per amino acid to provide realistic sequence-structure and sequence-function mappings through explicit simulation of the folding and interaction of model sequences. We start from two 16-amino-acid sequences folding into an α-helix and a β-hairpin, respectively, each of which has a preferred binding partner with 35 amino acids. We identify a mutational pathway between the two folds, which features a sharp fold switch. By contrast, we find that the transition in function is smooth. Moreover, the switch in preferred binding partner does not coincide with the fold switch. Discovery of new folds in evolution might therefore be facilitated by following fitness slopes in sequence space underpinned by binding-induced conformational switching. PMID:25185557

  13. Abrupt onset of a second energy gap at the superconducting transition of underdoped Bi2212

    SciTech Connect

    Hussain, Zahid; Lee, W.S.; Vishik, I.M.; Tanaka, K.; Lu, D.H.; Sasagawa, T.; Nagaosa, N.; Devereaux, T.P.; Hussain, Z.; Shen, Z.-X.

    2007-05-26

    he superconducting gap--an energy scale tied to the superconducting phenomena--opens on the Fermi surface at the superconducting transition temperature (Tc) in conventional BCS superconductors. In underdoped high-Tc superconducting copper oxides, a pseudogap (whose relation to the superconducting gap remains a mystery) develops well above Tc (refs 1, 2). Whether the pseudogap is a distinct phenomenon or the incoherent continuation of the superconducting gap above Tc is one of the central questions in high-Tc research3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8. Although some experimental evidence suggests that the two gaps are distinct9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, this issue is still under intense debate. A crucial piece of evidence to firmly establish this two-gap picture is still missing: a direct and unambiguous observation of a single-particle gap tied to the superconducting transition as function of temperature. Here we report the discovery of such an energy gap in underdoped Bi2Sr2CaCu2O8+delta in the momentum space region overlooked in previous measurements. Near the diagonal of Cu?O bond direction (nodal direction), we found a gap that opens at Tc and has a canonical (BCS-like) temperature dependence accompanied by the appearance of the so-called Bogoliubov quasi-particles, a classical signature of superconductivity. This is in sharp contrast to the pseudogap near the Cu?O bond direction (antinodal region) measured in earlier experiments19, 20, 21.

  14. Combined effect of soil erosion and climate change induces abrupt changes in soil and vegetation properties in semiarid Mediterranean shrublands.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bochet, Esther; García-Fayos, Patricio

    2013-04-01

    Semiarid Mediterranean ecosystems are experiencing major alterations as a result of the complex interactions between climatic fluctuations and disturbances caused by human activities. Future scenarios of global change forecast a rapid degradation of these ecosystems, with a reduction of their functionality, as a result of changes in relevant vegetation and soil properties. Some theoretical models indicate that these ecosystems respond non-linearly to regular variations in the external conditions, with an abrupt shift when conditions approach a certain critical level or threshold. Considering these predictions, there is an urgent need to know the effects that these alterations might have on semi-arid ecosystems and their components. In this study, we aim at analyzing the consequences of climate change and increasing soil erosion on soil and vegetation properties and the functional dynamics of semiarid Mediterranean shrublands. We predict that the combined effect of both drivers will be additive or synergistic, increasing the negative effects of each one. We compared vegetation and soil properties of flat areas (low erosion) and steep hillslopes (high erosion) in two climatic areas (484 mm and 10.3°C, and 368mm and 11.9°C, respectively) that reproduce the predicted climate change in temperature and precipitation for the next 40 years. Species richness, vegetal cover, plant life-form composition were determined in 20 m2 plots and soil was sampled in the same plots to determine bulk density, aggregate stability, fertility and water holding capacity. All soil and vegetation properties were negatively affected by soil erosion and climate change. However, contrary to our hypothesis, the joined effect of both drivers on all soil and vegetation properties was antagonistic, except for the vegetal cover that showed an additive response to their interaction. Our results evidence that soil erosion affects more negatively the soil and vegetation properties in the cooler and

  15. Terrestrial Plant Biomarkers Preserved in Cariaco Basin Sediments: Records of Abrupt Tropical Vegetation Response to Rapid Climate Changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hughen, K. A.; Eglinton, T. I.; Makou, M.; Xu, L.; Sylva, S.

    2004-12-01

    versus δ 13C for Cariaco Basin and NW African leaf waxes indicate that biomarkers reflect real changes in local South American vegetation and not contamination from long-distance transport during cold windy climates. The precise temporal relationship between tropical vegetation shifts and climate changes is measured by direct comparison of terrestrial vegetation and climate proxies from the same core. Abrupt deglacial climate shifts in tropical and high-latitude North Atlantic regions were synchronous, whereas changes in tropical vegetation consistently lagged climate shifts by several decades.

  16. An Abrupt Centennial-Scale Drought Event and Mid-Holocene Climate Change Patterns in Monsoon Marginal Zones of East Asia

    PubMed Central

    Li, Yu; Wang, Nai'ang; Zhang, Chengqi

    2014-01-01

    The mid-latitudes of East Asia are characterized by the interaction between the Asian summer monsoon and the westerly winds. Understanding long-term climate change in the marginal regions of the Asian monsoon is critical for understanding the millennial-scale interactions between the Asian monsoon and the westerly winds. Abrupt climate events are always associated with changes in large-scale circulation patterns; therefore, investigations into abrupt climate changes provide clues for responses of circulation patterns to extreme climate events. In this paper, we examined the time scale and mid-Holocene climatic background of an abrupt dry mid-Holocene event in the Shiyang River drainage basin in the northwest margin of the Asian monsoon. Mid-Holocene lacustrine records were collected from the middle reaches and the terminal lake of the basin. Using radiocarbon and OSL ages, a centennial-scale drought event, which is characterized by a sand layer in lacustrine sediments both from the middle and lower reaches of the basin, was absolutely dated between 8.0–7.0 cal kyr BP. Grain size data suggest an abrupt decline in lake level and a dry environment in the middle reaches of the basin during the dry interval. Previous studies have shown mid-Holocene drought events in other places of monsoon marginal zones; however, their chronologies are not strong enough to study the mechanism. According to the absolutely dated records, we proposed a new hypothesis that the mid-Holocene dry interval can be related to the weakening Asian summer monsoon and the relatively arid environment in arid Central Asia. Furthermore, abrupt dry climatic events are directly linked to the basin-wide effective moisture change in semi-arid and arid regions. Effective moisture is affected by basin-wide precipitation, evapotranspiration, lake surface evaporation and other geographical settings. As a result, the time scales of the dry interval could vary according to locations due to different

  17. Association between the transition from unemployment to re-employment after abrupt bankruptcy and the depressive symptoms.

    PubMed

    Nagatomi, Kaori; Ishitake, Tatsuya; Hara, Kunio; Shigemoto, Akira; Hoshiko, Michiko; Tsuji, Yoshiyasu; Yamaguchi, Yoshie; Tamaki, Hideki; Furumura, Mitsuyo; Muramoto, Junko

    2010-01-01

    The study aimed to examine the effects of long-term unemployment and the transition from unemployment to re-employment after abrupt bankruptcy on the mental health of unemployed Japanese. The cases of 96 men and 54 women who were laid off by a large shoemaking company because of sudden bankruptcy in 1998, were examined for one year. The mental health of these individuals was evaluated using a 'self-rating questionnaire for depression (SRQ-D)'. The respondents were categorized by employment transition status into four groups: (1) still employed full-time, (2) unemployment to full-time employment, (3) unemployment to part-time employment, and (4) still unemployed. The prevalence rate of depressive symptoms in the 'still unemployed' group was significantly higher (adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 4.33) than in the still employed group. Moreover, high levels of depressive symptoms were observed in the individuals in the 'unemployment to part-time employment' group (adjusted OR = 4.93). There was no significant risk of depressive tendency among individuals in the 'unemployment to full-time employment' group. The results suggest that the negative effect of re-employment to part-time employment on depressive symptoms is similar to that in long-term unemployment. PMID:21186340

  18. Evidence of Abrupt Climatic Variability Across Heinrich Events from Multiple Bahamian Stalagmites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arienzo, M. M.; Swart, P. K.; Pourmand, A.; Broad, K.; Clement, A. C.; Murphy, L.; Kakuk, B.

    2013-12-01

    Various types of paleoclimate data support the global nature and scale of Heinrich events. While a comprehensive picture of climate across Heinrich events is emerging for the North Atlantic, very few studies have been conducted in the subtropical western Atlantic, which may be an important area for investigating the global propagation of these events. In this study, we have attempted to further understand sub-tropical climate using geochemical records from multiple speleothems from a flooded cave in the Bahamas. These Bahamian stalagmites demonstrate increased aridity and temperature decrease associated with Heinrich events. Speleothems collected at depths ranging from 10-40 meters below modern sea level were dated using U-Th geochronometry with MC-ICP-MS at the Neptune Isotope Laboratory of University of Miami. Stable carbon and oxygen isotopes were measured at a resolution of 1 mm. In the subtropics, it has been demonstrated that higher volume rainfall events generally lead to a depleted δ18O signal, whereas heavier δ18O values are attributed to lower amounts of rainfall. Interpreting the δ18O of a carbonate is inherently difficult because the δ18O of a carbonate is dependent on both the variations in temperature and the δ18O of the cave water. In order to solve for the second unknown, an additional proxy is needed to provide information on one of the two unknowns. Fluid inclusion isotopic analysis provides information on the isotopic ratio of the formation water that can therefore be used to calculate paleo-temperature. Preliminary U-Th age results from multiple speleothems from Dan's Cave, Abaco Island, Bahamas demonstrate the stalagmite samples were forming from ~13 to 65 ka. The carbonate δ18O and δ13C results reveal significant isotopic excursions associated with Heinrich events. More positive carbon and oxygen isotopic values are observed leading into the Heinrich events, followed by more negative values at the terminations. In contrast to increased

  19. Abrupt climate and vegetation variability of eastern Anatolia during the last glacial

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pickarski, N.; Kwiecien, O.; Langgut, D.; Litt, T.

    2015-11-01

    Detailed analyses of the Lake Van pollen, Ca / K ratio, and stable oxygen isotope record allow the identification of millennial-scale vegetation and environmental changes in eastern Anatolia throughout the last glacial (~ 111.5-11.7 ka BP). The climate of the last glacial was cold and dry, indicated by low arboreal pollen (AP) levels. The driest and coldest period corresponds to Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 2 (~ 28-14.5 ka BP), which was dominated by highest values of xerophytic steppe vegetation. Our high-resolution multi-proxy record shows rapid expansions and contractions of tree populations that reflect variability in temperature and moisture availability. These rapid vegetation and environmental changes can be related to the stadial-interstadial pattern of Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events as recorded in the Greenland ice cores. Periods of reduced moisture availability were characterized by enhanced occurrence of xerophytic species and high terrigenous input from the Lake Van catchment area. Furthermore, the comparison with the marine realm reveals that the complex atmosphere-ocean interaction can be explained by the strength and position of the westerlies, which are responsible for the supply of humidity in eastern Anatolia. Influenced by the diverse topography of the Lake Van catchment, more pronounced DO interstadials (e.g., DO 19, 17-16, 14, 12 and 8) show the strongest expansion of temperate species within the last glacial. However, Heinrich events (HE), characterized by highest concentrations of ice-rafted debris (IRD) in marine sediments, cannot be separated from other DO stadials based on the vegetation composition in eastern Anatolia. In addition, this work is a first attempt to establish a continuous microscopic charcoal record for the last glacial in the Near East. It documents an immediate response to millennial-scale climate and environmental variability and enables us to shed light on the history of fire activity during the last glacial.

  20. Imprint of North-Atlantic abrupt climate changes on western European loess deposits as viewed in a dust emission model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sima, Adriana; Rousseau, Denis-Didier; Kageyama, Masa; Ramstein, Gilles; Schulz, Michael; Balkanski, Yves; Antoine, Pierre; Dulac, François; Hatté, Christine

    2009-12-01

    Western European loess sequences of the last glaciation (˜100,000-15,000 years BP) exhibit strong, cyclic variations of the sedimentation rate, which are coeval to the Greenland stadial/interstadial cycles and the Heinrich events. These North-Atlantic rapid climate changes appear, thus, as a potential cause for the sedimentation variations, via changes in dust intensity cycle. Here we make a first step in testing this hypothesis, by modelling the impact of the North-Atlantic abrupt climate variations on dust emission. Our dust emission calculations use meteorological fields generated by the LMDZ atmospheric general circulation model at a resolution down to 60 km over Western Europe. Three numerical experiments are run, representing a Greenland stadial, an interstadial and a Heinrich event. Orbital parameters and ice-sheet configuration correspond to conditions from Marine Isotope Stage 3 (˜60,000-25,000 years BP), a period characterized by strong millennial-scale climate variability. The only differences we impose in the boundary conditions regard the North-Atlantic surface temperature and sea-ice cover in the latitudinal band 30°-63°N. The changes in wind, precipitation, soil moisture and snow cover from one simulated state to another result in small differences in dust emission intensity. In contrast, when the inhibition of the aeolian erosion by vegetation is taken into account, the dust fluxes for the cold climate states (Greenland stadial and Heinrich event) become generally more than twice higher than those for the relatively warmer Greenland interstadial, in agreement with the loess data. These results support the hypothesis that the North-Atlantic millennial-scale variability is imprinted in Western European loess profiles, and point to vegetation changes as the main factor responsible for millennial-scale sedimentation variations. An analysis for the English Channel and southern North Sea areas, major potential dust sources, shows that the seasonality

  1. Abrupt State Change in Spatially-Patterned Subalpine Forests in Northern Colorado During the Medieval Climate Anomaly

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calder, W. J.; Shuman, B. N.

    2014-12-01

    Spatial patterns in many ecosystems arise from feedbacks associated with the potential for critical transitions and multiple stable states. Such systems may be susceptible to abrupt change, which could be indicated by early-warning signals, such as critical slowing down (increasingly long recovery from perturbation as a threshold approaches). Paleoecological data from ribbon forests, a type of subalpine parkland found in the Rocky Mountains, offer an opportunity to test these hypotheses. The forests consist of alternating strips of forest and meadow that form because bands of Picea and Abies trees act as snow fences with large snowdrifts forming on their lee sides. Drifts provide moisture for the adjacent trees, but also increase seedling mortality and shorten the growing season where drifts accumulate. The feedbacks between forest growth and snow accumulation maintain the ribbon forest-meadow pattern, and raise the potential for abrupt change if the feedbacks breakdown in response to factors like drought or fire. Our fossil pollen data from Summit Lake, located on the Continental Divide in the Park Range, northern Colorado, indicate that a closed forest transitioned rapidly to a ribbon forest state at ca. 1000 BP. Artemisia pollen increased (20 to 35%) and Picea and Abies pollen decreased (25 to 15%) within a century or less after a pair of charcoal peaks. Decreased charcoal influx (from 0.6 to 0.4 pieces/cm2/yr) and fire frequency (from 4.5 to 1.5 fires/ka) coincided with the pollen assemblage changes, and is consistent with decreased landscape biomass and fuel connectivity. Initial analyses show evidence of critical slowing down before the state change. After eight of eleven fires recorded by peaks in charcoal accumulation, Artemisia pollen percentages rise to a peak consistent with brief opening of the initially forested landscape. After 2000 BP, the magnitude and duration of the post-fire changes increases until no recovery is recorded after the shift at 1000

  2. Abrupt shifts in Horn of Africa hydroclimate since the Last Glacial Maximum.

    PubMed

    Tierney, Jessica E; deMenocal, Peter B

    2013-11-15

    The timing and abruptness of the initiation and termination of the Early Holocene African Humid Period are subjects of ongoing debate, with direct consequences for our understanding of abrupt climate change, paleoenvironments, and early human cultural development. Here, we provide proxy evidence from the Horn of Africa region that documents abrupt transitions into and out of the African Humid Period in northeast Africa. Similar and generally synchronous abrupt transitions at other East African sites suggest that rapid shifts in hydroclimate are a regionally coherent feature. Our analysis suggests that the termination of the African Humid Period in the Horn of Africa occurred within centuries, underscoring the nonlinearity of the region's hydroclimate. PMID:24114782

  3. Modeling dust emission variations in Eastern Europe related to North-Atlantic abrupt climate changes of the last glacial period

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sima, A.; Kageyama, M.; Rousseau, D.; Ramstein, G.; Schulz, M.; Balkanski, Y.; Antoine, P.; Dulac, F.; Hatte, C.; Lagroix, F.; Gerasimenko, N.

    2010-12-01

    The European loess sequences of the last glacial period (~ 100-15 kyr BP) show periods of strong dust accumulation alternating with episodes of reduced (or no) sedimentation, allowing soil development. For the main loess sedimentation period (~ 40 - 15 kyr BP), data indicate a correlation between these variations and the North Atlantic rapid climate changes: the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) and Heinrich (H) events. We use numerical modeling to investigate the relationship between the North-Atlantic abrupt changes and the sedimentation variations in Europe. A first study (Sima et al, QSR, 2009) focused on western Europe, and addressed the impact on dust emission of North-Atlantic SST changes as those associated to DO and H events. It proposed that vegetation played a key role in modulating dust emission variations in western European source areas. Here we focus on eastern Europe, especially on the areas north and north-east of the Carpathian Mountains, where loess deposits have recorded DO and H events (Rousseau et al. Clim. Past D, 2010). As in the previous study, we use the LMDZ AGCM and the SECHIBA land-surface models to simulate a reference glacial state (“stadial”), a cold (“HE”) and a warm (“DO interstadial”) perturbation, all corresponding to Marine Isotope Stage 3 conditions. We follow the same protocol as for the study on the west-European sector to analyze the impact of the climate factors and surface conditions on dust emission. The simulated most active emission areas are compatible with the loess deposit distribution, and the key role of vegetation in stadial-interstadial dust emission variations is confirmed.

  4. Climate and Antartic Intermediate Water Covariations on Centennial-Millennial Timescales during MIS 3—Constraining the Role of the "Oceanic Tunnel" in Abrupt Climate Change.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kleiven, H. F.; Ninnemann, U.

    2014-12-01

    The equatorward ventilation of Southern Hemisphere extratropical water masses to the low latitude thermocline has been proposed as a window through which the high latitude ocean can modulate tropical climate on anything from decadal to orbital timescales. This hypothesis is founded largely on the observation that tropical thermocline waters originate mostly in the Southern Hemisphere and that computer simulations suggest property anomalies in these source regions can advect through the intermediate ocean, "the ocean tunnel" to influence tropical SST. However, few observational records of extratropical ocean changes are available to assess their impacts on multi-decadal and longer timescales. Here we add to the observational record using new decadally resolved planktonic and benthic foraminiferal isotopic records spanning MIS 3 (20-50 ka) from the Chilean slope ODP Site 1233 that is located on the northern margin of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and its seafloor lies in the core of Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW). Thus the site is ideally situated to reconstruct both near surface and AAIW variability in the high southern latitudes. On centennial to millennial timescales, changes in intermediate water properties track those in the near surface albeit with a reduced amplitude—confirming the idea that changes in the extratropical ocean effect the oceanic tunnel on these timescales. The new benthic and plantic foraminiferal isotope results demonstrate that variations in intermediate ocean properties and climate of the southeast Pacific closely align with those recorded in the EPICA ice core from Dronning Maud Land. Such abrupt, synoptic scale changes in Antarctic climate and dynamics will have potentially widespread climatic and biogeochemical consequences along the downstream flowpath of AAIW. The broad coherence of the observed Antarctic signal supports the concept of hemispheric thermal asynchrony on millennial timescales, and the extension of this climate

  5. Microbial Community Dynamics from Permafrost Across the Pleistocene-Holocene Boundary and Response to Abrupt Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hammad, A.; Mahony, M.; Froese, D. G.; Lanoil, B. D.

    2014-12-01

    Earth is currently undergoing rapid warming similar to that observed about 10,000 years ago at the end of the Pleistocene. We know a considerable amount about the adaptations and extinctions of mammals and plants at the Pleistocene/Holocene (P/H) boundary, but relatively little about changes at the microbial level. Due to permafrost soils' freezing anoxic conditions, they act as microbial diversity archives allowing us to determine how microbial communities adapted to the abrupt warming at the end of P. Since microbial community composition only helps differentiate viable and extant microorganisms in frozen permafrost, microbial activity in thawing permafrost must be investigated to provide a clear understanding of microbial response to climate change. Current increased temperatures will result in warming and potential thaw of permafrost and release of stored organic carbon, freeing it for microbial utilization; turning permafrost into a carbon source. Studying permafrost viable microbial communities' diversity and activity will provide a better understanding of how these microorganisms respond to soil edaphic variability due to climate change across the P/H boundary, providing insight into the changes that the soil community is currently undergoing in this modern era of rapid climate change. Modern soil, H and P permafrost cores were collected from Lucky Lady II site outside Dawson City, Yukon. 16S rRNA high throughput sequencing of permafrost DNA showed the same trends for total and viable community richness and diversity with both decreasing with permafrost depth and only the richness increasing in mid and early P. The modern, H and P soils had 50.9, 33.9, and 27.3% unique viable species and only 14% of the total number of viable species were shared by all soils. Gas flux measurements of thawed permafrost showed metabolic activity in modern and permafrost soils, aerobic CH­­4 consumption in modern, some H and P soils, and anaerobic CH­­4 production in one H

  6. Abrupt climatic events during OIS-3 recorded in terrestrial sediments in the Netherlands: a multi-proxy approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bos, J. A. A.; Bohncke, S. J. P.; Kasse, C.; van Huissteden, J.; Schokker, J.; Bunnik, F. P. M.; Wallinga, J.

    2009-04-01

    Abrupt climatic changes during Oxygen Isotope Stage 3 (OIS-3 or Weichselian Middle Pleniglacial) are revealed in the oxygen isotope records of the Greenland ice cores and in the North Atlantic marine cores. In the Greenland ice cores, these so-called D/O cycles start with a rapid warming of 5-10˚C within a few decades, followed by a phase of gradual cooling over several hundred to more than a thousand years and often end with a final reduction in temperature back to cold, stadial conditions. On the adjacent European continent, however, climatic variability during this time interval is poorly known. High-resolution terrestrial records are scarce and the discontinuous nature of sedimentation and repeated erosion on the continent combined with poor dating control often hampers a detailed study of the vegetation and climate. In this contribution, a Middle Weichselian sequence with shallow lacustrine deposits, intercalated by fluvial sediments with permafrost features, is presented from the Netherlands. Within this Middle Weichselian sequence, rapid warming events are assumed to have given rise to thawlake formation and/or deposition of organic-rich lacustrine sediments, while the extreme cooling events of the D/O cycles are probably represented in the sequences by clastic intervals during which periglacial features developed. In the sixties of the last century, two warming events or "interstadials" were first recognized and described from terrestrial Middle Weichselian sequences from the Hengelo basin in the Netherlands, the Hengelo- and Denekamp interstadials, respectively. The shift from a polar desert to shrub tundra (i.e. Hengelo interstadial) and tundra to shrub tundra (i.e. Denekamp interstadial), visible in the pollen diagrams of this area, was interpreted as a temporary amelioration of the climate and were therefore given the names of interstadials. In time the Hengelo- and Denekamp interstadials were also correlated with D/O cycles 12 respectively 8 in the

  7. Abrupt Climate Change and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: sensitivity and non-linear response to Arctic/sub-Arctic freshwater pulses. Collaborative research. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Hill, Christopher

    2015-06-15

    This project investigated possible mechanisms by which melt-water pulses can induce abrupt change in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) magnitude. AMOC magnitude is an important ingredient in present day climate. Previous studies have hypothesized abrupt reduction in AMOC magnitude in response to influxes of glacial melt water into the North Atlantic. Notable fresh-water influxes are associated with the terminus of the last ice age. During this period large volumes of melt water accumulated behind retreating ice sheets and subsequently drained rapidly when the ice weakened sufficiently. Rapid draining of glacial lakes into the North Atlantic is a possible origin of a number of paleo-record abrupt climate shifts. These include the Younger-Dryas cooling event and the 8,200 year cooling event. The studies undertaken focused on whether the mechanistic sequence by which glacial melt-water impacts AMOC, which then impacts Northern Hemisphere global mean surface temperature, is dynamically plausible. The work has implications for better understanding past climate stability. The work also has relevance for today’s environment, in which high-latitude ice melting in Greenland appears to be driving fresh water outflows at an accelerating pace.

  8. Insensitivity of Global Neolithic Transition Patterns On Climatic Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wirtz, K. W.

    Aiming to assess the relative importance of climate events on human history through- out the Holocene here a recently build model is employed. In the model 196 world regions are resolved which mainly differ in their food extraction potential (FEP) and potential number of agricultures. Both regional features are estimated using exist- ing vegetation maps. An array of state variables describes farming to foraging ratio, domestication success, technological and organizational development and population density. Deterministic rules for their time evolution are derived from a growth func- tion, an adaptation principle and a diffusion submodel. Overall model validity can be demonstrated by a striking similarity of simulated patterns and archaeological evi- dence. It is demonstrated that abrupt as well as smooth climatic changes, induced by FEP modifications, do not significantly affect development trajectories of Neolithic communities or global transition patterns. The stability of this result is tested through conducting numerical experiments based on massive parameter variation. However, population density always reacts sensitively, leading to the emergence of distinct mi- gration waves. An in-depth analysis of the differential model behavior provides new arguments in the face of recent or established theories linking climatic factors with human development.

  9. Lateglacial/early Holocene fluvial reactions of the Jeetzel river (Elbe valley, northern Germany) to abrupt climatic and environmental changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turner, Falko; Tolksdorf, Johann Friedrich; Viehberg, Finn; Schwalb, Antje; Kaiser, Knut; Bittmann, Felix; von Bramann, Ullrich; Pott, Richard; Staesche, Ulrich; Breest, Klaus; Veil, Stephan

    2013-01-01

    Mechanisms of climatic control on river system development are still only partially known. Palaeohydrological investigations from river valleys often lack a precise chronological control of climatic processes and fluvial dynamics, which is why their specific forces remain unclear. In this multidisciplinary case study from the middle Elbe river valley (northern Germany) multiple dating of sites (palynostratigraphy, radiocarbon- and OSL-dating) and high-resolution analyses of environmental and climatological proxies (pollen, plant macro-remains and ostracods) reveal a continuous record of the environmental and fluvial history from the Lateglacial to the early Holocene. Biostratigraphical correlation to northwest European key sites shows that river system development was partially out of phase with the main climatic shifts. The transition from a braided to an incised channel system predated the main phase of Lateglacial warming (˜14.6 ka BP), and the meandering river did not change its drainage pattern during the cooling of the Younger-Dryas period. Environmental reconstructions suggest that river dynamics were largely affected by vegetation cover, as a vegetation cover consisting of herbs, dwarf-shrubs and a few larger shrubs seems to have developed before the onset of the main Lateglacial warming, and pine forests appear to have persisted in the river valley during the Younger Dryas. In addition, two phases of high fluvial activity and new channel incision during the middle part of the Younger Dryas and during the Boreal were correlated with changes from dry towards wet climatic conditions, as indicated by evident lake level rises. Lateglacial human occupation in the river valley, which is shown by numerous Palaeolithic sites, forming one of the largest settlement areas of that period known in the European Plain, is assigned to the specific fluvial and environmental conditions of the early Allerød.

  10. Speed and Magnitude of Abrupt Climate Change at 8,200 yrs B.P. from the Greenland Ice Core (GISP2)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kobashi, T.; Severinghaus, J. P.; Brook, E. J.; Grachev, A.

    2003-12-01

    At ˜8,200 years before present, an abrupt climate change occurred, which is believed to be the largest in the past 10,000 years. The scale of the event was probably global, as seen in reduced atmospheric methane concentration and paleoclimatic evidence around the globe indicating drying and cooling trends. The timing of the climate change also coincides with widespread abandonment of villages in southwestern Asia, which marks the end of the Pre-Pottery Neolithic B (PPNB) interval. Owing to the similarity between the warm early-Holocene and the projected warmer future climate, the 8.2 k event provides us an invaluable test case for a future potential abrupt climate change. We reconstructed the speed and magnitude of temperature change at the event, using argon and nitrogen isotopes in trapped air from the Greenland ice core coupled with the oxygen isotope record of ice. This method makes use of two isotopic fractionations, gravitational and thermal, which occur within the firn layer (snow layer above the air bubble close-off depth). The analyses of argon and nitrogen isotopes can separate the two effects, and allows us to directly retrieve temperature information (Severinghaus et al., Nature, v. 391, 141, 1998). The magnitude of temperature change in central Greenland at 8.2kyr B.P. is preliminarily estimated to be 5 +/- 2 ° C for the decadal average with the experimentally determined thermal diffusion constants (Grachev and Severinghaus, Geochim. et Cosmochim. Acta, v.67, 345, 2003; J. Phys. Chem., v.107, 4636, 2003), implying an oxygen isotope-temperature coefficient, α , of ˜0.4 permil/° C. Using oxygen isotope record of ice and α , we estimate that the abrupt cooling took place within ˜5 years with an 'instantaneous' magnitude of ˜8° C, and climate was locked in the cold phase for ˜60 years. In addition, we plan to measure methane concentration in trapped air, which will constrain the mechanisms of the abrupt climate change.

  11. Neanderthal and Anatomically Modern Human interaction with Abrupt Late Pleistocene Environments - the data is finally good enough to talk about climate change!

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blockley, Simon; Schreve, Danielle

    2015-04-01

    The timing and nature of the appearance of Anatomically Modern Humans (AMH) in Europe, their interaction with, and eventual morphological replacement of Neanderthals (despite some shared genetic heritage) has been a matter of intense debate within archaeology for a generation. This period, often termed the Middle to Upper Palaeolithic transition occurs in the latter part of Marine Isotope Stage Three and in recent decades archaeological interest has been complemented by the input of palaeoclimate scientists, over the role of abrupt climate change in this process. This was due to the recognition from ice core and marine proxy archives, in particular, of periods if intense cooling, correlated to the marine record of Heinrich ice rafted debris layers from the Atlantic. As a result of these collaborations between the archaeological and palaeoenvironmental communities various drivers have been proposed for the Middle to Upper Palaeolithic Transition that include: (1) resource competition between two species occupying similar niches; (2) the impact of repeated cycles of Heinrich event cooling, leading to the decline and eventual disappearance of the Neanderthal populations, leaving a new region open for AMH exploitation; and (3) catastrophic impacts of large volcanic eruptions on Neanderthal populations. Attempts to address the above hypotheses have been dogged by the chronological precision available for a number of key archives. The accuracy of many of the radiocarbon ages that underpin the chronology for both Neanderthal and AMH archaeological sites has been questioned1. This has been exacerbated by uncertainties over the influence of variability in the radiocarbon marine reservoir effect on marine palaeoclimate records and a marine dominated radiocarbon calibration curve. Additionally, the counting uncertainties of the master Greenland palaeoclimate archives are also large by this time, meaning palaeoclimate interpretation can be equivocal. However, several research

  12. Climate-driven shifts in continental net primary production implicated as a driver of a recent abrupt increase in the land carbon sink

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buermann, Wolfgang; Beaulieu, Claudie; Parida, Bikash; Medvigy, David; Collatz, George J.; Sheffield, Justin; Sarmiento, Jorge L.

    2016-03-01

    The world's ocean and land ecosystems act as sinks for anthropogenic CO2, and over the last half century their combined sink strength grew steadily with increasing CO2 emissions. Recent analyses of the global carbon budget, however, have uncovered an abrupt, substantial ( ˜ 1 PgC yr-1) and sustained increase in the land sink in the late 1980s whose origin remains unclear. In the absence of this prominent shift in the land sink, increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations since the late 1980s would have been ˜ 30 % larger than observed (or ˜ 12 ppm above current levels). Global data analyses are limited in regards to attributing causes to changes in the land sink because different regions are likely responding to different drivers. Here, we address this challenge by using terrestrial biosphere models constrained by observations to determine if there is independent evidence for the abrupt strengthening of the land sink. We find that net primary production significantly increased in the late 1980s (more so than heterotrophic respiration), consistent with the inferred increase in the global land sink, and that large-scale climate anomalies are responsible for this shift. We identify two key regions in which climatic constraints on plant growth have eased: northern Eurasia experienced warming, and northern Africa received increased precipitation. Whether these changes in continental climates are connected is uncertain, but North Atlantic climate variability is important. Our findings suggest that improved understanding of climate variability in the North Atlantic may be essential for more credible projections of the land sink under climate change.

  13. Abrupt Transition from Ferromagnetic to Antiferromagnetic of Interfacial Exchange in Perpendicularly Magnetized L10-MnGa/FeCo Tuned by Fermi Level Position

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, Q. L.; Mizukami, S.; Kubota, T.; Zhang, X. M.; Ando, Y.; Miyazaki, T.

    2014-04-01

    An abrupt transition of the interfacial exchange coupling from ferromagnetic to antiferromagnetic was observed in the interface of perpendicularly magnetized L10-MnGa /Fe1-xCox epitaxial bilayers when x was around 25%. By considering the special band structure of the MnGa alloy, we present a model explaining this transition by the spin-polarization reversal of Fe1-xCox alloys due to the rise of the Fermi level as the Co content increases. The effect of interfacial exchange coupling on the coercive force (Hc) and the spin-dependent tunneling effect in perpendicular magnetic tunnel junctions (pMTJs) based on the coupled composite were also studied. Changes from the normal spin valve to inverted magnetoresistance loops corresponding to the coupling transition were observed in pMTJs with MnGa /Fe1-xCox as an electrode.

  14. Annual proxy data from Lago Grande di Monticchio (southern Italy) contributing to chronological constraints and abrupt climatic oscillations between 76 and 112 ka

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martin-Puertas, C.; Brauer, A.; Wulf, S.; Ott, F.; Lauterbach, S.; Dulski, P.

    2014-06-01

    We present annual sedimentological proxies and sub-annual element scanner data from the Lago Grande di Monticchio (MON) sediment record for the sequence 76-112 ka, which, combined with the decadal to centennial resolved pollen assemblage, allow a comprehensive reconstruction of six major abrupt cold and relatively humid spells (MON 1-6) in the central Mediterranean during early phase of the last glaciation. These climatic oscillations are defined by intervals of thicker varves and high Ti-counts and coincide with episodes of forest depletion interpreted as cold and wet oscillations. Based on the independent and slightly revised MON-2014 varve chronology (76-112 ka), a detailed comparison with the Greenland ice-core δ18O record (NGRIP) and northern Alps speleothem δ18O data (NALPS) is presented. Based on visual inspection of major changes in the proxy data, MON 2-6 are suggested to correlate with GS 25-20. MON 1 (Woillard event), the first and shortest cooling spell in the Mediterranean after a long phase of stable interglacial conditions, has no counterpart in the Greenland ice core, but coincides with the lowest isotope values at the end of the gradual decrease in δ18O in NGRIP during the second half of the GI 25. MON 3 is the least pronounced cold spell and shows gradual transitions, whereas its NGRIP counterpart GS 24 is characterized by sharp changes in the isotope records. MON 2 and MON 4 are the longest most pronounced oscillations in the MON sediments in good agreement with their counterparts in the ice and spelethem records. The length of MON 4 (correlating with GS 22) support the duration of this stadial proposed by the NALPS timescales and suggests ca. 500 yr longer duration than calculated by GICC05 and AICC2012, which would confirm a~possible underestimation in the ice-core. Absolute dating of the cold spells occurring from 112 to 100 ka (MON 1-3) in the MON-2014 chronology is in good agreement with the GICC05 and NALPS timescales but the younger

  15. Annual proxy data from Lago Grande di Monticchio (southern Italy) between 76 and 112 ka: new chronological constraints and insights on abrupt climatic oscillations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martin-Puertas, C.; Brauer, A.; Wulf, S.; Ott, F.; Lauterbach, S.; Dulski, P.

    2014-12-01

    We present new annual sedimentological proxies and sub-annual element scanner data from the Lago Grande di Monticchio (MON) sediment record for the sequence 76-112 thousand years before present (ka). They are combined with the previously published decadal to centennial resolved pollen assemblage in order to provide a comprehensive reconstruction of six major abrupt stadial spells (MON 1-6) in the central Mediterranean during the early phase of the last glaciation. These climatic oscillations are defined by intervals of thicker varves and high Ti-counts and coincide with episodes of forest depletion interpreted as Mediterranean stadial conditions (cold winter/dry summer). Our chronology, labelled as MON-2014, has been updated for the study interval by tephrochronology and repeated and more precise varve counts and is independent from ice-core and speleothem chronologies. The high-resolution Monticchio data then have been compared in detail with the Greenland ice-core δ18O record (NorthGRIP) and the northern Alps speleothem δ18Ocalcite data (NALPS). Based on visual inspection of major changes in the proxy data, MON 2-6 are suggested to correlate with Greenland stadials (GS) 25-20. MON 1 (Woillard event), the first and shortest cooling spell in the Mediterranean after a long phase of stable interglacial conditions, has no counterpart in the Greenland ice core, but coincides with the lowest isotope values at the end of the gradual decrease in δ18Oice in NorthGRIP during the second half of the Greenland interstadial (GI) 25. MON 3 is the least pronounced cold spell and shows gradual transitions, whereas its NorthGRIP counterpart GS 24 is characterized by sharp changes in the isotope records. MON 2 and MON 4 are the longest and most pronounced oscillations in the MON sediments in good agreement with their counterparts identified in the ice and spelethem records. The length of MON 4 (correlating with GS 22) supports the duration of stadial proposed by the NALPS

  16. Climate change mitigation through livestock system transitions.

    PubMed

    Havlík, Petr; Valin, Hugo; Herrero, Mario; Obersteiner, Michael; Schmid, Erwin; Rufino, Mariana C; Mosnier, Aline; Thornton, Philip K; Böttcher, Hannes; Conant, Richard T; Frank, Stefan; Fritz, Steffen; Fuss, Sabine; Kraxner, Florian; Notenbaert, An

    2014-03-11

    Livestock are responsible for 12% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Sustainable intensification of livestock production systems might become a key climate mitigation technology. However, livestock production systems vary substantially, making the implementation of climate mitigation policies a formidable challenge. Here, we provide results from an economic model using a detailed and high-resolution representation of livestock production systems. We project that by 2030 autonomous transitions toward more efficient systems would decrease emissions by 736 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year (MtCO2e⋅y(-1)), mainly through avoided emissions from the conversion of 162 Mha of natural land. A moderate mitigation policy targeting emissions from both the agricultural and land-use change sectors with a carbon price of US$10 per tCO2e could lead to an abatement of 3,223 MtCO2e⋅y(-1). Livestock system transitions would contribute 21% of the total abatement, intra- and interregional relocation of livestock production another 40%, and all other mechanisms would add 39%. A comparable abatement of 3,068 MtCO2e⋅y(-1) could be achieved also with a policy targeting only emissions from land-use change. Stringent climate policies might lead to reductions in food availability of up to 200 kcal per capita per day globally. We find that mitigation policies targeting emissions from land-use change are 5 to 10 times more efficient--measured in "total abatement calorie cost"--than policies targeting emissions from livestock only. Thus, fostering transitions toward more productive livestock production systems in combination with climate policies targeting the land-use change appears to be the most efficient lever to deliver desirable climate and food availability outcomes. PMID:24567375

  17. Climate change mitigation through livestock system transitions

    PubMed Central

    Havlík, Petr; Valin, Hugo; Herrero, Mario; Obersteiner, Michael; Schmid, Erwin; Rufino, Mariana C.; Mosnier, Aline; Thornton, Philip K.; Böttcher, Hannes; Conant, Richard T.; Frank, Stefan; Fritz, Steffen; Fuss, Sabine; Kraxner, Florian; Notenbaert, An

    2014-01-01

    Livestock are responsible for 12% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Sustainable intensification of livestock production systems might become a key climate mitigation technology. However, livestock production systems vary substantially, making the implementation of climate mitigation policies a formidable challenge. Here, we provide results from an economic model using a detailed and high-resolution representation of livestock production systems. We project that by 2030 autonomous transitions toward more efficient systems would decrease emissions by 736 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year (MtCO2e⋅y−1), mainly through avoided emissions from the conversion of 162 Mha of natural land. A moderate mitigation policy targeting emissions from both the agricultural and land-use change sectors with a carbon price of US$10 per tCO2e could lead to an abatement of 3,223 MtCO2e⋅y−1. Livestock system transitions would contribute 21% of the total abatement, intra- and interregional relocation of livestock production another 40%, and all other mechanisms would add 39%. A comparable abatement of 3,068 MtCO2e⋅y−1 could be achieved also with a policy targeting only emissions from land-use change. Stringent climate policies might lead to reductions in food availability of up to 200 kcal per capita per day globally. We find that mitigation policies targeting emissions from land-use change are 5 to 10 times more efficient—measured in “total abatement calorie cost”—than policies targeting emissions from livestock only. Thus, fostering transitions toward more productive livestock production systems in combination with climate policies targeting the land-use change appears to be the most efficient lever to deliver desirable climate and food availability outcomes. PMID:24567375

  18. Work More? The 8.2 kaBP Abrupt Climate Change Event and the Origins of Irrigation Agriculture and Surplus Agro-Production in Mesopotamia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weiss, H.

    2003-12-01

    The West Asian archaeological record is of sufficient transparency and resolution to permit observation of the social responses to the major Holocene abrupt climate change events at 8.2, 5.2 and 4.2 kaBP. The 8.2kaBP abrupt climate change event in West Asia was a three hundred year aridification and cooling episode. During this period rain-fed agriculture, established for over a millennium in northern Mesopotamia, suddenly collapsed. Irrigation agriculture, pastoral nomadism, or migration were the only subsistence alternatives for populations previously supported by cereal dry-farming. Irrigation agriculture was not, however, possible along the northern alluvial plains of the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers, where incised riverbeds were several meters below plain level. Exploitable plain-level levees were only accessible in southern-most alluvial plain, at the head of the present-day Persian Gulf. The archaeological data from this region documents the first irrigation agriculture settlement of the plain during the 8.2 kaBP event. Irrigation agriculture provides about twice the yield of dry-farming in Mesopotamia, but at considerable labor costs relative to dry-farming. With irrigation agriculture surplus production was now available for deployment. But why work more? The 8.2 kaBP event provided the natural force for Mesopotamian irrigation agriculture and surplus production that were essential for the earliest class-formation and urban life.

  19. Definition of an Abrupt Transition Between Regions of Abundant and Extremely Low Magma Supplies Along the Mid-Atlantic Between 14o and 16oN

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Casey, J. F.; Fujiwara, T.

    2001-12-01

    Detailed multibeam, gravity, and magnetics studies, as well as abundant submersible and dredge sampling studies, conducted during multiple cruises over the last 13 years in the region of 14-16°N along the Mid-Atlantic have produced a remarkably complete picture of an abrupt and striking along-axis transition. The transition is from lithosphere and crust formed in a magma-starved setting to the north of ~14o20'N to lithosphere and crust formed where the magma budget was high in the south. The abrupt transition is manifest by abundant serpentinized mantle and plutonic outcrops on both sides of the rift valley to the north of 14o30' N and largely basaltic outcrops to the south of 14o30'N. In addition, morphotectonic studies indicates regularly spaced and linear N-S high-angle normal faults directly south of 14o30"N, but non-linear, highly irregularly spaced major fault line scarps and large expanses of low-angle fault surfaces exposed immediately to the north of 14o30'N. This is coupled with the formation of multiple and obvious seafloor core complexes exposing ultramafic and gabbroic rocks to the north. Core complexes are observed on both off-axis ridge flanks, even at the same latitude, suggesting flips in the polarity of low-angle detachments and a lack of strict adherence to the inside-outside corner pattern observed elsewhere for predicting polarity of detachment faulting. Detailed seafloor fabric studies also show that an E-W fabric trend exists in the north reflecting abundant linear E-W corrugations on the seafloor that abruptly disappear to the south of 14o30'N. This is consistent with a change from abundant long-lived low-angle detachment faulting and exposure of these fault surfaces to the north and a shorter offset high-angle faults to the south. A steep MBA and basalt geochemical gradient exists across the 14o30' transition and both indicate significantly thicker crust to the south. A change from regular magnetic anomalies to the south to disrupted

  20. Redefining deuterium excess in ice cores: Antarctic-wide evidence for ITCZ and polar jet variability during abrupt climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Markle, B. R.; Steig, E. J.; Schoenemann, S. W.; Sowers, T. A.; Buizert, C.; Ding, Q.; Fudge, T. J.; White, J. W.

    2013-12-01

    We examine a new, high-resolution ice core record of water isotopes (δ18O and deuterium excess) and atmospheric methane from West Antarctica, focusing on the millennial events of the most recent glacial period. High temporal resolution and a small gas-age/ice-age difference enable unprecedented precision in the analysis of phasing between these records. Our analysis reveals large amplitude millennial variability in the deuterium excess, a proxy for moisture source conditions and atmospheric circulation, which is out of phase with local site temperatures. On the other hand, this variability is in phase with atmospheric methane, which likely records changes in tropical hydrology and co-varies with Greenland temperatures during abrupt millennial Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. Using a logarithmic definition of the deuterium excess, we show that these changes were probably near symmetric around Antarctica; the historical (linear) definition of the parameter appears to misrepresent millennial to multi-millennial variability at high East Antarctic ice core sites. Modeling experiments show that asymmetric warming of the hemispheres, a defining characteristic of these millennial events, should shift the position of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and in turn the Southern sub-polar jet. Postulated ITCZ shifts can, in principle, help to explain the rapid rise in methane that accompanies abrupt Northern Hemisphere warming events by varying tropical rainfall patterns. Our observations are the first to show that these tropical changes may have directly influenced moisture sources and atmospheric circulation in the high southern latitudes, as recorded by the deuterium excess. We support these paleoclimate observations with isotope tracing atmospheric modeling experiments.

  1. Abrupt climate variability since the last deglaciation based on a high-resolution, multi-proxy peat record from NW Iran: The hand that rocked the Cradle of Civilization?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharifi, Arash; Pourmand, Ali; Canuel, Elizabeth A.; Ferer-Tyler, Erin; Peterson, Larry C.; Aichner, Bernhard; Feakins, Sarah J.; Daryaee, Touraj; Djamali, Morteza; Beni, Abdolmajid Naderi; Lahijani, Hamid A. K.; Swart, Peter K.

    2015-09-01

    We present a high-resolution (sub-decadal to centennial), multi-proxy reconstruction of aeolian input and changes in palaeohydrological conditions based on a 13000 Yr record from Neor Lake's peripheral peat in NW Iran. Variations in relative abundances of refractory (Al, Zr, Ti, and Si), redox sensitive (Fe) and mobile (K and Rb) elements, total organic carbon (TOC), δ13CTOC, compound-specific leaf wax hydrogen isotopes (δD), carbon accumulation rates and dust fluxes presented here fill a large gap in the existing terrestrial paleoclimate records from the interior of West Asia. Our results suggest that a transition occurred from dry and dusty conditions during the Younger Dryas (YD) to a relatively wetter period with higher carbon accumulation rates and low aeolian input during the early Holocene (9000-6000 Yr BP). This period was followed by relatively drier and dustier conditions during middle to late Holocene, which is consistent with orbital changes in insolation that affected much of the northern hemisphere. Numerous episodes of high aeolian input spanning a few decades to millennia are prevalent during the middle to late Holocene. Wavelet analysis of variations in Ti abundances as a proxy for aeolian input revealed notable periodicities at 230, 320, and 470 years with significant periodicities centered around 820, 1550, and 3110 years over the last 13000 years. Comparison with palaeoclimate archives from West Asia, the North Atlantic and African lakes point to a teleconnection between North Atlantic climate and the interior of West Asia during the last glacial termination and the Holocene epoch. We further assess the potential role of abrupt climate change on early human societies by comparing our record of palaeoclimate variability with historical, geological and archaeological archives from this region. The terrestrial record from this study confirms previous evidence from marine sediments of the Arabian Sea that suggested climate change influenced the

  2. Have abrupt climate variations of the last glacial possibly been muted in the south-west African tropics by counteracting mechanisms?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hessler, I.; Dupont, L.; Handiani, D.; Steinke, S.; Groeneveld, J.; Merkel, U.; Paul, A.

    2012-04-01

    The last glacial period including the last deglaciation (73.5-10 ka BP) is characterised by abrupt shifts between extreme climatic conditions. Millennial-scale climate variations associated with North Atlantic Heinrich Stadials (HSs) are thought to be transmitted by both the atmospheric and oceanic circulation resulting in a near-global footprint. It is further thought that HSs are closely related to a reduction or shut-down of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which, according to the bipolar-seesaw hypothesis, leads to the accumulation of heat in the South Atlantic. In addition, it is hypothesised that HSs result in a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone which then would likely influence the vegetation composition in the African tropics. To investigate the impact of HSs on the terrestrial African realm and the south-east Atlantic we reconstructed the vegetation development in Angola and the southern Congo Basin as well as the sea surface temperatures (SST) of the south-east Atlantic using marine sediments of ODP Site 1078 (11° 55'S, 13° 24'E, 427 m water depth). Two species of planktonic foraminifera were selected to reconstruct variations in surface water conditions in the south-east Atlantic. Due the ecological and seasonal preferences of Globigerinoides ruber (pink) this species provides a good tool to estimate SST variations during the southern hemisphere summer. In contrast, Globigerina bulloides is representing the Benguela Upwelling System during the southern hemisphere winter. While Mg/Ca-based SSTs of G. ruber (pink) were significantly higher by 1° -2° C during periods of abrupt climate change, the impact of HSs during southern hemisphere winter is less obvious. However, although there are several vegetation records that show an impact of HSs in the African tropics, our high-resolution pollen record from ODP Site 1078 reflects no vegetation changes during periods of HSs. Model simulations conducted with an Earth System

  3. Characterizing temperature-dependent photo-oxidation to explain the abrupt transition from thermal to non-thermal laser damage mechanisms at 413 nm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Denton, Michael L.; Clark, C. D., III; Noojin, Gary D.; Estlack, Larry E.; Schenk, Adam C.; Burney, Curtis W.; Rockwell, Benjamin A.; Thomas, Robert J.

    2011-03-01

    Laser exposure duration dictates whether tissues subjected to short visible wavelengths ( <= 514 nm) are damaged by thermal (e.g. 0.1 s) or non-thermal ( >= 100 s) mechanisms. Somewhere between these extremes, an abrupt transition between the two damage mechanisms has been found for both in vitro and animal retinal models (J. Biomed. Opt. 15, 030512, 2010). Non-thermal (photochemical) damage is characterized by an inverse relationship between damage threshold irradiance and exposure duration (irradiance reciprocity). We have found that exposures of 40 - 60 s in an in vitro retinal model require radiant exposures well above the expected requirement for nonthermal damage, introducing the concept that damage was forced to be thermal in mechanism. Here we quantify and compare photo-oxidative processes at ambient temperatures between 35 - 50 °C.

  4. Abrupt strike-slip fault to subduction transition: The Alpine Fault-Puysegur Trench connection, New Zealand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lebrun, Jean-FréDéRic; Lamarche, Geoffroy; Collot, Jean-Yves; Delteil, Jean

    2000-08-01

    Swath bathymetry and other geophysical data collected over the Fiordland Margin, southwest of New Zealand are used to investigate the mechanism of transform-subduction transition between the Alpine Fault and the Puysegur Trench, two segments of the Pacific-Australian plate boundary. In this region the Cenozoic Southeast Tasman Basin, which obliquely underthrusts Fiordland at the Puysegur Trench, is separated from the Cretaceous Tasman Basin by the Resolution Ridge System, a major lithospheric discontinuity of the downgoing plate. Interpretation of seafloor morphology shows that the Alpine Fault extends offshore along the Fiordland coast and splits into West and East Branches. The West Branch cuts obliquely across the margin and connects sharply to the Puysegur subduction front at the northeastern tip of the Resolution Ridge System. Earthquake and seismic reflection data indicate that the West Branch is genetically controlled by downgoing plate structures associated with the Resolution Ridge System. Hence the West Branch is interpreted as the surface trace of the plate boundary segment extending between the Alpine Fault and the Puysegur Trench. We conclude that the development of the strike-slip segment of the plate boundary and its sharp transition to the Puysegur subduction are controlled by inherited structures of the Australian plate. Furthermore, according to geophysical data presented here, a tearing of the downgoing plate can be interpreted beneath the West Branch. A review of geophysical data along the region of the Alpine Fault-Hikurangi Trough, northeast New Zealand, shows a progressive transform-subduction transition that is accommodated by motion partitioning between the subduction interface and strike-slip faults. This transition is accounted for by an interplate coupling that progressively increases toward the Alpine Fault in relation with a gradual thickening of the downgoing crust. The comparison between the Fiordland and the Hikurangi strike

  5. Abrupt climate events 500,000 to 340,000 years ago: Evidence from subpolar North Atlantic sediments

    SciTech Connect

    Oppo, D.W.; McManus, J.F.; Cullen, J.L.

    1998-02-27

    Subpolar North Atlantic proxy records document millennial-scale climate variations 500,000 to 340,000 years ago. The cycles have an approximately constant pacing that is similar to that documented for the last glacial cycle. These findings suggest that such climate variations are inherent to the late Pleistocene, regardless of glacial state. Sea surface temperature during the warm peak of Marine Isotope Stage 11 (MIS 11) varied by 0.5{degree} to 1{degree}C, less than the 4{degree} to 4.5{degree}C estimated during times of ice growth and the 3{degree}C estimated for glacial maxima. Coherent deep ocean circulation changes were associated with glacial oscillations in sea surface temperature. 31 refs., 3 figs.

  6. Abrupt change of the mid-summer climate in central east China by the influence of atmospheric pollution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Qun

    Following the great flooding of summer 1998, the mid-lower Yangtze Basin further suffered from another large flooding in summer 1999. Successive droughts through 3 recent summers (1997-1999) appeared in north China in addition, leading to an abnormal summer climate pattern of "north drought with south flooding". Such southward move of the summer monsoon rainy belt in east China started in the late 1970s-early 1980s. Its main cause may not be a purely natural climate change, but the acceleration of industrialization in east China could play a major role by emitting large volumes of SO 2, especially from the rapidly growing rural factories of east China. The annual release of SO 2 in China exceeded 20 Tg during 1992-1998, so dense sulfate aerosols covered the central east China which significantly reduced the sunlight. Although present estimates for the changes of clear sky global solar radiation may include some error, they show that the negative radiative forcing of sulfate aerosols in central east China by far exceeds the effect of greenhouse warming in summer. Hence the mid-summer monsoon rainy belt of east China has a trend moving southward in 21 recent years (1979-1999), showing the very sensitive characteristic of the summer monsoon system to the change in heat equilibrium of the land surface. The occurrence rate of summer climate pattern of "north drought with south flooding" in east China during 21 recent years is the largest since AD 950; such anomalous climate has brought large losses to China. The only possible way to reverse this southward trend of summer monsoon rainy belt is to significantly reduce air pollution by using more clean energy. Recently, the PRC has paid serious attention to this problem by adopting a series of countermeasures.

  7. The complex behavior of the Cordilleran Ice Sheet and mountain glaciers to abrupt climate change during the latest Pleistocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Menounos, Brian; Goehring, Brent; Osborn, Gerald; Clarke, Garry K. C.; Ward, Brent; Margold, Martin; Bond, Jeff; Clague, John J.; Lakeman, Tom; Schaefer, Joerg; Koch, Joe; Gosse, John; Stroeven, Arjen P.; Seguinot, Julien; Heyman, Jakob; Fulton, Robert

    2014-05-01

    Surficial mapping and more than 70 radiometric ages 10Be, 14C] constrain the evolution of the Cordilleran Ice Sheet (CIS) and associated mountain glaciers in western Canada during the latest Pleistocene. Our data suggest that: i) there is widespread evidence for the Younger Dryas (YD) throughout the mountains of western Canada; ii) late Pleistocene climate reconstructions based solely on alpine moraines may be misleading in regions with decaying ice sheets; iii) extensive interfluves in some mountain regions were ice-free between 16 ka and 13 ka (kilo calibrated yrs BP). Initial decay of the CIS from its maximum extent around 16 ka was likely due to a combination of climatic (surface melting) and dynamical factors. Climate amelioration during the Bølling-Allerød Warm Period [14.7-12.9 ka], likely the cause for the major phase of CIS decay, resulted in ice sheet equilibrium line altitudes (ELAs) ranging from 2500 m asl in southern BC to around 2000 m asl along the BC-Yukon border. Hence, before the onset of the Younger Dryas (YD) Cold Period [12.9-11.7 ka], the ice sheet shrank and became a labyrinth of individual and coalescing valley glaciers fed by major accumulation zones centered on the Coast Mountains and other high ranges of NW Canada. The response of remnant ice and cirque glaciers to the YD climate deterioration was highly variable. In some cases, small glaciers (0.5-2 km2) built YD moraines that were only hundreds of meters beyond those constructed during the Little Ice Age (LIA) [0.30-0.15 ka]. Our dating also reveals that much larger glaciers persisted in nearby valleys that lie hundreds of meters below the cirques. Hence, we infer that many cirques were completely deglaciated prior the YD, in contrast to low-lying valleys where ice sheet remnants persisted. Glaciers also advanced in north-central British Columbia during the YD, but here glaciers constructed large terminal and lateral moraines. In the Cassiar and northern Coast mountains, for example

  8. Climate change, human health, and epidemiological transition

    PubMed Central

    Barrett, Bruce; Charles, Joel W.; Temte, Jonathan L.

    2015-01-01

    The health of populations depends on the availability of clean air, water, food, and sanitation, exposure to pathogens, toxins and environmental hazards, and numerous genetic, behavioral and social factors. For many thousands of years, human life expectancy was low, and population growth was slow. The development of technology-based civilizations facilitated what Abdel Omran called “epidemiological transition,” with increasing life expectancy and rapid population growth. To a large extent, the spectacular growth of human populations during the past two centuries was made possible by the energy extracted from fossil fuels. We have now learned, however, that greenhouse gases from fossil fuel combustion are warming the planet's surface, causing changes in oceanic and atmospheric systems, and disrupting weather and hydrological patterns. Climate change poses unprecedented threats to human health by impacts on food and water security, heat waves and droughts, violent storms, infectious disease, and rising sea levels. Whether or not humanity can reduce greenhouse gas emissions quickly enough to slow climate change to a rate that will allow societies to successfully adapt is not yet known. This essay reviews the current state of relevant knowledge, and points in a few directions that those interested in human health may wish to consider. PMID:25434735

  9. Climate change, human health, and epidemiological transition.

    PubMed

    Barrett, Bruce; Charles, Joel W; Temte, Jonathan L

    2015-01-01

    The health of populations depends on the availability of clean air, water, food, and sanitation, exposure to pathogens, toxins and environmental hazards, and numerous genetic, behavioral and social factors. For many thousands of years, human life expectancy was low, and population growth was slow. The development of technology-based civilizations facilitated what Abdel Omran called "epidemiological transition," with increasing life expectancy and rapid population growth. To a large extent, the spectacular growth of human populations during the past two centuries was made possible by the energy extracted from fossil fuels. We have now learned, however, that greenhouse gases from fossil fuel combustion are warming the planet's surface, causing changes in oceanic and atmospheric systems, and disrupting weather and hydrological patterns. Climate change poses unprecedented threats to human health by impacts on food and water security, heat waves and droughts, violent storms, infectious disease, and rising sea levels. Whether or not humanity can reduce greenhouse gas emissions quickly enough to slow climate change to a rate that will allow societies to successfully adapt is not yet known. This essay reviews the current state of relevant knowledge, and points in a few directions that those interested in human health may wish to consider. PMID:25434735

  10. What does the study of swamp ecological transition(s) tell us about past climatic conditions in East Africa?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coffinet, Sarah; Huguet, Arnaud; Pedentchouk, Nikolai; Anquetil, Christelle; Kolaczek, Piotr; Kolaczek, Monika; Galka, Marius; Williamson, David; Bergonzini, Laurent; Majule, Amos; Laggoun-Défarge, Fatima; Wagner, Thomas; Derenne, Sylvie

    2016-04-01

    Peatlands represent only 3-5% of the total world land cover (Gorham, 1991) but approximately 20-30% of the total carbon storage of the world. However, they have so far been scarcely used as paleoclimate archives. The aim of this work was to reconstruct past climate and ecological changes through a high-resolution multi-proxy study of a 4 m peat core collected in the Kyambangunguru swamp (SW Tanzania). This core covers the last 4,000 years based on 14C dating of bulk organic matter and macro-remains. Microscopic observations ‒ macro-remains, micro-fossils, palynofacies and pollen ‒ and geochemical analyses ‒ organic carbon and nitrogen contents, branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (br GDGTs), n-alkanes and their H isotopic composition ‒ were combined to track potential ecological changes in the swamp and to relate them to climate forcings. This approach revealed an abrupt ecological transition ca. 2,300 yrs BP ago, when the ecosystem likely changed from a lake to a marsh. In addition, climate variations were investigated through the analysis of specific organic compounds, i.e. long chain n-alkanes and br GDGTs. On the one hand, the change in ecosystem functioning seems associated with an increase in mean annual air temperature of ca. 1 °C according to br GDGT-derived temperature estimates. On the other hand, the hydrogen isotopic composition of plant derived n-alkanes (δ²Hwax), which is related to the isotopic signature of precipitations and with hydrological regimes, did not show any abrupt shift at this period. In conclusion, high coherence between vegetation changes and climate modifications recorded by different proxies was observed along the core. They all indicate the transition from a lake to an acidic marsh ca. 2300 years ago. The onset of marsh formation may have been driven by hydroseral succession processes, i.e. the lake overgrowth by macrophytes, and may have been favoured by a warming climate and a long-term progressive trend

  11. A stratigraphic framework for abrupt climatic changes during the Last Glacial period based on three synchronized Greenland ice-core records: refining and extending the INTIMATE event stratigraphy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rasmussen, Sune O.; Bigler, Matthias; Blockley, Simon P.; Blunier, Thomas; Buchardt, Susanne L.; Clausen, Henrik B.; Cvijanovic, Ivana; Dahl-Jensen, Dorthe; Johnsen, Sigfus J.; Fischer, Hubertus; Gkinis, Vasileios; Guillevic, Myriam; Hoek, Wim Z.; Lowe, J. John; Pedro, Joel B.; Popp, Trevor; Seierstad, Inger K.; Steffensen, Jørgen Peder; Svensson, Anders M.; Vallelonga, Paul; Vinther, Bo M.; Walker, Mike J. C.; Wheatley, Joe J.; Winstrup, Mai

    2014-12-01

    Due to their outstanding resolution and well-constrained chronologies, Greenland ice-core records provide a master record of past climatic changes throughout the Last Interglacial-Glacial cycle in the North Atlantic region. As part of the INTIMATE (INTegration of Ice-core, MArine and TErrestrial records) project, protocols have been proposed to ensure consistent and robust correlation between different records of past climate. A key element of these protocols has been the formal definition and ordinal numbering of the sequence of Greenland Stadials (GS) and Greenland Interstadials (GI) within the most recent glacial period. The GS and GI periods are the Greenland expressions of the characteristic Dansgaard-Oeschger events that represent cold and warm phases of the North Atlantic region, respectively. We present here a more detailed and extended GS/GI template for the whole of the Last Glacial period. It is based on a synchronization of the NGRIP, GRIP, and GISP2 ice-core records that allows the parallel analysis of all three records on a common time scale. The boundaries of the GS and GI periods are defined based on a combination of stable-oxygen isotope ratios of the ice (δ18O, reflecting mainly local temperature) and calcium ion concentrations (reflecting mainly atmospheric dust loading) measured in the ice. The data not only resolve the well-known sequence of Dansgaard-Oeschger events that were first defined and numbered in the ice-core records more than two decades ago, but also better resolve a number of short-lived climatic oscillations, some defined here for the first time. Using this revised scheme, we propose a consistent approach for discriminating and naming all the significant abrupt climatic events of the Last Glacial period that are represented in the Greenland ice records. The final product constitutes an extended and better resolved Greenland stratotype sequence, against which other proxy records can be compared and correlated. It also provides a

  12. Sensitivity of the North Atlantic Ocean Circulation to an abrupt change in the Nordic Sea overflow in a high resolution global coupled climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Rong; Delworth, Thomas L.; Rosati, Anthony; Anderson, Whit G.; Dixon, Keith W.; Lee, Hyun-Chul; Zeng, Fanrong

    2011-12-01

    The sensitivity of the North Atlantic Ocean Circulation to an abrupt change in the Nordic Sea overflow is investigated for the first time using a high resolution eddy-permitting global coupled ocean-atmosphere model (GFDL CM2.5). The Nordic Sea overflow is perturbed through the change of the bathymetry in GFDL CM2.5. We analyze the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) adjustment process and the downstream oceanic response to the perturbation. The results suggest that north of 34°N, AMOC changes induced by changes in the Nordic Sea overflow propagate on the slow tracer advection timescale, instead of the fast Kelvin wave timescale, resulting in a time lead of several years between subpolar and subtropical AMOC changes. The results also show that a stronger and deeper-penetrating Nordic Sea overflow leads to stronger and deeper AMOC, stronger northward ocean heat transport, reduced Labrador Sea deep convection, stronger cyclonic Northern Recirculation Gyre (NRG), westward shift of the North Atlantic Current (NAC) and southward shift of the Gulf Stream, warmer sea surface temperature (SST) east of Newfoundland and colder SST south of the Grand Banks, stronger and deeper NAC and Gulf Stream, and stronger oceanic eddy activities along the NAC and the Gulf Stream paths. A stronger/weaker Nordic Sea overflow also leads to a contracted/expanded subpolar gyre (SPG). This sensitivity study points to the important role of the Nordic Sea overflow in the large scale North Atlantic ocean circulation, and it is crucial for climate models to have a correct representation of the Nordic Sea overflow.

  13. Fluvial system response to abrupt climate change: sedimentary record example of the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) in the South-Pyrenean foreland basin, Spain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Chen; Castelltort, Sebastien; Foreman, Brady; Hassenruck-Gudipati, Hima J.

    2015-04-01

    The "Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum" (PETM), is understood to be an extreme and short-lived (ca.150-220kya) global warming event that occurred 55.8 million years ago and during which global annual temperatures are estimated to have increased by ca. 5-8°C, with respect to sea surface temperatures and ca. 4-5°C, with respect to the deep sea. A remaining outstanding question is: in addition to the global increase in temperature, how was precipitation perturbed during the event, and how did fluvial surface processes respond to the perturbation? In the southern Spanish Pyrenees, the Paleocene succession of the Tremp-Graus Basin is made up of the Talarn (Danian) and Esplugafreda (Thanetian) red bed formations. The Esplugafreda section is composed of approximately 250m of reddish paleosols and contains numerous lenticular bodies of calcareous conglomerates, which are interpreted as braided channels. The Esplugafreda Formation is overlain by the Claret Conglomerate -- an extensive sheet-like unit which ranges in thickness between 1m and 4m of clast-supported calcareous conglomerate and pebbly calcarenites and is interpreted as marking the fluvial response to a dramatic climate change, in the form of the transformation of a braided river and floodplain system into an enormous conglomeratic braided plain (formed over at least 2000km2 conservatively) due to dramatic change in the hydrologic cycle. The conglomerate unit ends abruptly and is overlaid by fine-grained yellowish soils which are mainly made up of silty mudstones with abundant small size carbonate nodules suggesting another shift in the hydrological cycle after the PETM. Here we present paleo-channel geometry and grain size data collected in the southern Pyrenees (Tremp, Aren, and Serraduy sections) that we invert to reconstruct paleoflow conditions during the Paleocene and during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Event. We confront paleohydraulic results with sea level, isotope and lithological records in order to

  14. Abrupt changes in electronic relaxation and lattice dynamics across the structural phase transition in lightly doped Ca2RuO4 observed via time-resolved optical reflectivity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chu, Hao; Torchinsky, Darius; Zhao, Liuyan; Rall, Patrick; Terrace, Jasminka; Cao, Gang; Hsieh, David; InstituteQuantum Information; Matter, California Institute of Technology Collaboration; Department of Physics; Astronomy, University of Kentucky Collaboration

    2015-03-01

    Ca2RuO4 is a multiband strongly correlated electron system that undergoes a structural phase transition at Ts 360K that is concomitant with an insulator-to-metal transition and a rearrangement of orbital occupancy. Understanding its structural and electronic response to ultrafast optical excitation can provide insight about the microscopic mechanism of this phase transition.We report temperature and fluence dependent time resolved optical reflectivity measurements from lightly doped Ca2RuO4 single crystals. Abrupt changes in both the electronic relaxation dynamics and multiple lattice vibrational modes are observed, including the softening of two optical phonon modes as Ts is approached. We will discuss the relevance of our results to existing theories of the mechanism underlying the structural phase transition in Ca2RuO4 as well as the possibility of photo-inducing this phase transition on ultrafast time scales.

  15. Pregnancy Complications: Placental Abruption

    MedlinePlus

    ... page It's been added to your dashboard . The placenta attaches to the wall of the uterus (womb) ... abruption is a serious condition in which the placenta separates from the wall of the uterus before ...

  16. Population age and initial density in a patchy environment affect the occurrence of abrupt transitions in a birth-and-death model of Taylor's law

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jiang, Jiang; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Zhang, B.; Cohen, J.E.

    2014-01-01

    Taylor's power law describes an empirical relationship between the mean and variance of population densities in field data, in which the variance varies as a power, b, of the mean. Most studies report values of b varying between 1 and 2. However, Cohen (2014a) showed recently that smooth changes in environmental conditions in a model can lead to an abrupt, infinite change in b. To understand what factors can influence the occurrence of an abrupt change in b, we used both mathematical analysis and Monte Carlo samples from a model in which populations of the same species settled on patches, and each population followed independently a stochastic linear birth-and-death process. We investigated how the power relationship responds to a smooth change of population growth rate, under different sampling strategies, initial population density, and population age. We showed analytically that, if the initial populations differ only in density, and samples are taken from all patches after the same time period following a major invasion event, Taylor's law holds with exponent b=1, regardless of the population growth rate. If samples are taken at different times from patches that have the same initial population densities, we calculate an abrupt shift of b, as predicted by Cohen (2014a). The loss of linearity between log variance and log mean is a leading indicator of the abrupt shift. If both initial population densities and population ages vary among patches, estimates of b lie between 1 and 2, as in most empirical studies. But the value of b declines to ~1 as the system approaches a critical point. Our results can inform empirical studies that might be designed to demonstrate an abrupt shift in Taylor's law.

  17. Abrupt changes in pentobarbital sensitivity in preBötzinger complex region, hypoglossal motor nucleus, nucleus tractus solitariius, and cortex during rat transitional period (P10–P15)

    PubMed Central

    Turner, Sara M. F.; Johnson, Stephen M.

    2015-01-01

    On postnatal days P10–P15 in rat medulla, neurotransmitter receptor subunit composition shifts towards a more mature phenotype. Since medullary GABAARs regulate cardiorespiratory function, abrupt alterations in GABAergic synaptic inhibition could disrupt homeostasis. We hypothesized that GABAARs on medullary neurons become more resistant to positive allosteric modulation during P10–P15. Medullary and cortical slices from P10–P20 rats were used to record spontaneous action potentials in pre-Botzinger Complex (preBötC-region), hypoglossal (XII) motor nucleus, nucleus tractus solitariius (NTS), and cortex during exposure to pentobarbital (positive allosteric modulator of GABAARs). On P14, pentobarbital resistance abruptly increased in preBötC-region and decreased in NTS, but these changes in pentobarbital resistance were not present on P15. Pentobarbital resistance decreased in XII motor nucleus during P11–P15 with a nadir at P14. Abrupt changes in pentobarbital resistance indicate changes in GABAergic receptor composition and function that may compensate for potential increased GABAergic inhibition and respiratory depression that occurs during this key developmental transitional period. PMID:25550216

  18. A 2400-year record of abrupt climate change from Almalou Crate Lake in NW Iran: Investigating the potential influence of solar variability on the climate of West Asia during late Holocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharifi, A.; Pourmand, A.; Canuel, E. A.; Naderi Beni, A.; Lahijani, H. A.

    2013-12-01

    The Mediterranean climate of northwest Iran is influenced by mid-latitude Westerlies and the winter expansion of the Siberian Anticyclone. Given the significance of this region in development of human civilizations, high-resolution reconstructions of abrupt climate change are of particular interest during the Holocene. Almalou Crater Lake sustains the growth of plants inside the crater of a dormant volcanic cone on the eastern flank of the Sahand volcanic district in NW Iran. At an elevation of 2491 m.a.s.l., the crater is exclusively fed by rainfall during the spring and fall and snowfall during the winter. Preservation of organic matter within the crater can potentially record changes in atmospheric deposition and paleo-environmental conditions over this region. To reconstruct changes in atmospheric aeolian input, we present a high-resolution (sub-decadal) multi-proxy record of climate variability during the last 2400 years from a 3-m peat core recovered from the crater peat bog. Radiocarbon dates of eight samples along the core show a nearly constant rate of accumulation (7.7 mm yr-1, R2=0.98) since 2404×25 cal yr BP. Downcore X-ray fluorescence measurements of selected conservative lithogenic elements (e.g., Al, Si, and Ti) as well as redox-sensitive elements (e.g., Fe and Rb) at 10 mm intervals reveal several periods of elevated abundances related to enhanced atmospheric dust deposition. The co-variations between relative abundances of conservative and redox-sensitive elements as a function of time show significant agreement and attest to the ombrotrophic nature of the entire record. Intervals of enhanced dust deposition inferred from XRF data reveal three short episodes (~ 150-y) at 450-600, 1150-1300, and 1400-1550 cal yr BP, and one prolonged period (500 y) of dust accumulation from 1600 to 2070 cal yr BP. These intervals of high atmospheric dust coincide with historical records of drought and famine in Iran since 2000 BP. Wavelet analysis conducted on the

  19. Climate stability across the Eocene-Oligocene transition, southern Argentina

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kohn, Matthew J.; Josef, Jennifer A.; Madden, Richard; Kay, Richard; Vucetich, Guiomar; Carlini, Alfredo A.

    2004-07-01

    Fossil mammal teeth from mid-latitude southern Argentina (˜46°S) that closely bracket the Eocene-Oligocene transition show no resolvable change in oxygen isotope compositions. In combination with paleofloral observations and geographic considerations, this finding implies not only that climate was essentially constant, despite interpretations elsewhere for major mid- and high-latitude cooling, but also that evolution of hypsodonty did not coincide with climate change during the Eocene-Oligocene transition. One possible explanation for Eocene-Oligocene transition climatic stability is that southern high-latitude cooling increased latitudinal temperature gradients and strengthened ocean circulation gyres, including the southward-flowing Brazil Current in the western South Atlantic. Regionally increased heat transport in the western Atlantic offset global cooling, producing a nearly constant temperature in southern South America. A more radical interpretation, supported by some marine data, is that the paradigm of major global cooling at the Eocene-Oligocene transition is largely false, in that mean sea-surface temperatures changed very little.

  20. Comparison of the timings between abrupt climate changes in Greenland, Antarctica, China and Japan based on robust correlation using Lake Suigetsu as a template.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakagawa, T.

    2014-12-01

    High-resolution pollen-derived climate records from Lake Suigetsu varved sediment core were compared with climate archives from other regions and revealed a particular spatio-temporal structure of the monsoon climate change during so-called D-O events. Leads and lags of the climate change between different regions hold the key to understand the climate system. However, robust assessment of the relative timing of the climate change is often very challenging because correlation of the climatic archives from different regions often has inevitable uncertainties. Greenland and Cariaco basin, for example, provide two of the most frequently sited palaeoclimatic proxy data representative of the high- and low-latitudinal Atlantic regions. However, robust correlation of the records from those regions is difficult because of the uncertainties in layer countings, lack of the radiocarbon age control from ice cores, marine reservoir age of the Cariaco sediments, and the absence of the tephra layers shared by both cites. Similarly, Speleothem and ice core records are not robustly correlated to each other, either for the dead carbon fraction in the speleothems and lack of reliable correlation markers. The generally accepted hypothesis of synchronous climate change between China and the Greenland is, therefore, essentially hypothetical. Lake Suigetsu provides solution to this problem. The lake Suigetsu chronology is supposed to be coherent to the speleothems' U-Th age scale. Suigetsu's semi-continuous radiocarbon dataset, which constitutes major component of the IntCal13 radiocarbon calibration model, also provides opportunity to correlate lake Suigetsu and the Greenland and Antarctic ice cores using cosmogenic isotopes as the correlation key. Results of the correlation and timing comparison, which cast new lights to the mechanism of the monsoon change, will be presented.

  1. Abrupt percolation in small equilibrated networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matsoukas, Themis

    2015-05-01

    Networks can exhibit an abrupt transition in the form of a spontaneous self-organization of a sizable fraction of the population into a giant component of connected members. This behavior has been demonstrated in random graphs under suppressive rules that passively or actively attempt to delay the formation of the giant cluster. We show that suppressive rules are not a necessary condition for a sharp transition at the percolation threshold. Rather, a finite system with aggressive tendency to form a giant cluster may exhibit an instability at the percolation threshold that is relieved through an abrupt and discontinuous transition to the stable branch. We develop the theory for a class of equilibrated networks that produce this behavior and find that the discontinuous jump is especially pronounced in small networks but disappears when the size of the system is infinite.

  2. Transitivity of the climate-vegetation system in a warm climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Port, U.; Claussen, M.

    2015-11-01

    To date, the transitivity of the global system has been analysed for late Quaternary (glacial, interglacial, and present-day) climate. Here, we extend this analysis to a warm, almost ice-free climate with a different configuration of continents. We use the Earth system model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology to analyse the stability of the climate system under early Eocene and pre-industrial conditions. We initialize the simulations by prescribing either dense forests or bare deserts on all continents. Starting with desert continents, an extended desert remains in central Asia in the early Eocene climate. Starting with dense forest coverage, the Asian desert is much smaller, while coastal deserts develop in the Americas which appear to be larger than in the simulations with initially bare continents. These differences can be attributed to differences in the large-scale tropical circulation. With initially forested continents, a stronger dipole in the 200 hPa velocity potential develops than in the simulation with initially bare continents. This difference prevails when vegetation is allowed to adjust to and interact with climate. Further simulations with initial surface conditions that differ in the region of the Asian desert only indicate that local feedback processes are less important in the development of multiple states. In the interglacial, pre-industrial climate, multiple states develop only in the Sahel region. There, local climate-vegetation interaction seems to dominate.

  3. Understanding Abrupt, Natural Climate Variability Post-Industrial Revolution from the Subtropical Eastern Pacific: A Novel High Resolution Alkenone-derived Sea Surface Temperature Record

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kelly, C. S.; O'Mara, N. A.; Herbert, T.; Abella-Gutiérrez, J. L.; Herguera, J. C.

    2015-12-01

    Despite the ocean's importance in global biogeochemical feedbacks and heat storage, there is still a paucity of decadally-resolved sea surface temperature (SST) records to complement lacustrine and dendrological records of recent paleoclimate. Natural climate variability on multidecadal timescales is dominated by internal ocean circulation dynamics and feedbacks, and it is therefore imperative to employ marine proxies to reconstruct high resolution climate change. The timescales of this ocean-induced natural climate variability can be broken down into a few characteristic climate modes. Pressing questions about these modes include their stationarity in frequency and amplitude over time, in addition to the hypothesis that anthropogenic climate change has altered their behavior in comparison to natural variability. To pursue these questions, we must discern and analyze suitable climate archives in regions where modes of interest dominate modern climate variability. The region of Baja California, Mexico exhibits exceptional teleconnection to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Local, dramatic effects of ENSO and PDO on the marine biology and economy underline the importance of regional paleoclimate records from the Baja peninsula. Here, we present a high-resolution alkenone-derived SST reconstruction from the Industrial Revolution through the year 2000 by analysis of laminated box and Kasten sediment cores at Site PCM 00-78 (25.18°N, 112.66°W) in the subtropical eastern Pacific at a depth of 540 meters. Our SST record corresponds with NOAA extended reconstructed sea surface temperature, providing a robust basis for organic geochemical marine climatic reconstructions on timescales usually accessible only through speleothems, coral density bands, tree rings, and the like. Accordingly, based on this comparison to the historical data we expect our SST record may provide a more robust record of inter and multidecadal

  4. Atmospheric carbon dioxide through the Eocene-Oligocene climate transition.

    PubMed

    Pearson, Paul N; Foster, Gavin L; Wade, Bridget S

    2009-10-22

    Geological and geochemical evidence indicates that the Antarctic ice sheet formed during the Eocene-Oligocene transition, 33.5-34.0 million years ago. Modelling studies suggest that such ice-sheet formation might have been triggered when atmospheric carbon dioxide levels (pCO2atm) fell below a critical threshold of approximately 750 p.p.m.v., but the timing and magnitude of pCO2atm relative to the evolution of the ice sheet has remained unclear. Here we use the boron isotope pH proxy on exceptionally well-preserved carbonate microfossils from a recently discovered geological section in Tanzania to estimate pCO2atm before, during and after the climate transition. Our data suggest that are reduction in pCO2atm occurred before the main phase of ice growth,followed by a sharp recovery to pre-transition values and then a more gradual decline. During maximum ice-sheet growth, pCO2atm was between approximately 450 and approximately 1,500 p.p.m.v., with a central estimate of approximately 760 p.p.m.v. The ice cap survived the period of pCO2atm recovery,although possibly with some reduction in its volume, implying (as models predict) a nonlinear response to climate forcing during melting. Overall, our results confirm the central role of declining pCO2atm in the development of the Antarctic ice sheet (in broad agreement with carbon cycle modelling) and help to constrain mechanisms and feedbacks associated with the Earth's biggest climate switch of the past 65 Myr. PMID:19749741

  5. Abrupt shifts in Horn of Africa hydroclimate and the influence of the Indian Ocean (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tierney, J. E.; deMenocal, P. B.

    2013-12-01

    The timing and abruptness with which Northeast Africa transitioned into and out of the Early Holocene African Humid Period is a subject of ongoing debate, with direct consequences for our understanding of climate stability and paleoenvironments. Here we present a new proxy record of regional hydroclimate, based on the hydrogen isotopic composition of leaf waxes, from a marine core in the Gulf of Aden that documents rapid, century-scale transitions into and out of the African Humid Period across the Horn of Africa. The Gulf of Aden record also documents large drying events during the last deglacial, synchronous with Heinrich Event 1 and the Younger Dryas. Similar and generally synchronous abrupt transitions at other East African sites suggest that rapid shifts in hydroclimate are regionally coherent. In addition, the termination of the African Humid Period in East Africa is synchronous with the termination along the western Saharan margin. A probabilistic analysis of the abruptness of the transitions in East Africa suggests that they likely occurred within centuries, underscoring the sensitivity of northeast African hydroclimate to external forcings. We speculate that the non-linear behavior of hydroclimate in the Horn of Africa is related to convection thresholds in the western Indian Ocean, and test this hypothesis with preliminary SST proxy data.

  6. Heat waves connect abrupt polar climate changes during the past 67ka: evidence from sediment core GeoB3912-1

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, X.; Rial, J. A.

    2014-12-01

    According to the hypothesis of polar synchronization, climate variations of Earth's poles are connected with a persistent phase lock of π/2 throughout the last glacial period. However, it is not clear yet how the Earth's two poles communicate with each other, the Thermohaline circulation (THC) being a possible candidate for signal carrier. Here we present a possible way of climate variation propagation through the Atlantic Ocean - likely in the form of heat or thermal wave (Cattaneo's solution) - based on lagged correlation between an organic carbon climate proxy record from the tropical Atlantic and the south-north polar temperature gradient. We further demonstrate that the speed of such propagation is frequency dependent, of which the wave of the longest period travels the fastest at the speed of ~32 km/year consistent with the estimated speed of the THC. The observed speed - frequency relationship can be successfully modeled as resulting from a propagating dispersive thermal wave initiated by the polar temperature gradient maximum. We show that such heat wave propagation is a potential mechanism to couple and synchronize the polar climates during the last glacial period and to force the occurrence of Heinrich events. To summarize, the polar temperature gradient anomalies are consequence of the π/2 phase lock between the polar climates, which is caused by polar synchronization maintained by the coupling, which is, as the data suggest, in the form of thermal waves. The spikes in organic carbon and the Fe/Ca ratio records in the core GeoB3912-1 can be thought of as snapshots of the passage of strong meteorological wavefronts through the equatorial region. The results strongly suggest that each peak in the organic carbon recorded a half-hemisphere-delayed passage of a wave-like disturbance through the equator carrying the south-north temperature gradient maxima. And each of these occurs within timing error of the Heinrich events H0-H6.

  7. Abrupt changes in rainfall during the twentieth century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Narisma, G.; Foley, J.; Licker, R.; Ramankutty, N.

    2007-12-01

    A sudden change in climate is brought about by complex interactions in the climate system, including interactions between land and atmosphere, that can give rise to strong positive feedback mechanisms. Paleoclimatic studies have shown that abrupt climate changes have happened in the geologic past. Studies of future climate change under global warming scenarios indicate the possibility of the sudden collapse of the thermohaline circulation, which will have major implications for the climate of Europe. However, abrupt climatic changes are not events of the geologic past or a computer-simulated future: they have occurred in recent history and have had serious consequences on society and the environment. The prolonged Sahel drought in the late 1960s and the Dust Bowl of the 1930s are examples of abrupt climatic changes of the twentieth century. Apart from these events, however, there has been no systematic survey of recent climate history to determine the prevalence of abrupt climatic changes. Given the potential cost of these abrupt changes, there is a need to investigate historical records for evidence of other sudden climatic changes in the more recent past. Here we analyze the Climate Research Unit global historical rainfall observations (covering the years 1901-2000) using wavelet analysis to detect regions that have undergone large, sudden decreases in rainfall. We show that in the twentieth century, aside from the Sahel and the US midwest, at least 30 regions in the world have experienced sudden climatic changes. These events are statistically significant at the 99 percent level, are persistent for at least ten years, and most have magnitudes of change that are 10 percent lower than the climatological normal (1901-2000 rainfall average). We also illustrate some of the potential consequences of these abrupt changes and show that these events had major impacts on social and environmental conditions. Interestingly, these regions of abrupt precipitation changes are

  8. Examining Risks, Extreme Events, and Abrupt Changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hargreaves, Julia; Keller, Klaus; Edwards, Tamsin

    2013-08-01

    Climate change research in Japan has shifted focus significantly in the past 2 years, with a greater emphasis on risks, extreme events, and abrupt changes. Two new national government-funded 5-year projects, Integrated Climate Assessment—Risks, Uncertainty and Society (ICA-RUS) and Program for Risk Information on Climate Change (SOUSEI) will focus on climate-induced risks and hazards and the possibility of fast climate changes. In light of the devastating Tohoku earthquake, tsunami, and consequent nuclear accident that occurred 2 years ago in Japan, there is also an increased interest in looking again at risks previously thought to be highly unlikely and in searching for potential risks that have not been considered.

  9. Multiple abrupt climate changes in the western hemisphere during the past 50,000 years, and their implications concerning the response of vegetation to changing atmospheric chemistry

    SciTech Connect

    Jacobson, G.L. Jr.; Grimm, E.C.

    1995-06-01

    Independent evidence spanning the last 50,000 years from ice cores, ocean sediments, and detailed glacial-geologic investigations implies multiple. large warm/cool oscillations with a frequency of ca. 3000 years through much of the Western Hemisphere. Paleoecological studies at sites in North America and the west coast of South America reveal major, synchronous changes in vegetation corresponding to many of these high-frequency changes in climate. Sequences on both sides of the equator culminate in substantial warming at 14 ka BP and a brief cooling at ca. 11 ka BP just prior to the final onset of Holocene warming. The high-frequency climate oscillations are not explained by {open_quotes}Milankovitch{close_quotes} cycles in solar insolation or by changes in thermohaline ocean circulation. Rather, these changes in climate and the attendant synchronous, broad-scale responses of vegetation indicate a global atmospheric forcing. However, that forcing is apparently also distinct from changing concentrations of atmospheric CO2 (as represented in the Vostok ice-core data). High-resolution CO2 data, such as that from the new Greenland ice cores, will be required before critical assessments of plant-physiological responses to past atmospheric changes can be carried out.

  10. A stratigraphic framework for naming and robust correlation of abrupt climatic changes during the last glacial period based on three synchronized Greenland ice core records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rasmussen, Sune O.

    2014-05-01

    Due to their outstanding resolution and well-constrained chronologies, Greenland ice core records have long been used as a master record of past climatic changes during the last interglacial-glacial cycle in the North Atlantic region. As part of the INTIMATE (INtegration of Ice-core, MArine and TErrestrial records) project, protocols have been proposed to ensure consistent and robust correlation between different records of past climate. A key element of these protocols has been the formal definition of numbered Greenland Stadials (GS) and Greenland Interstadials (GI) within the past glacial period as the Greenland expressions of the characteristic Dansgaard-Oeschger events that represent cold and warm phases of the North Atlantic region, respectively. Using a recent synchronization of the NGRIP, GRIP, and GISP2 ice cores that allows the parallel analysis of all three records on a common time scale, we here present an extension of the GS/GI stratigraphic template to the entire glacial period. This is based on a combination of isotope ratios (δ18O, reflecting mainly local temperature) and calcium concentrations (reflecting mainly atmospheric dust loading). In addition to the well-known sequence of Dansgaard-Oeschger events that were first defined and numbered in the ice core records more than two decades ago, a number of short-lived climatic oscillations have been identified in the three synchronized records. Some of these events have been observed in other studies, but we here propose a consistent scheme for discriminating and naming all the significant climatic events of the last glacial period that are represented in the Greenland ice cores. This is a key step aimed at promoting unambiguous comparison and correlation between different proxy records, as well as a more secure basis for investigating the dynamics and fundamental causes of these climatic perturbations. The work presented is under review for publication in Quaternary Science Reviews. Author team: S

  11. Enhanced MJO and transition to superrotation in warm climates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carlson, Henrik; Caballero, Rodrigo

    2016-03-01

    Using the NCAR CAM3 model in aquaplanet configuration, we perform a suite of simulations spanning a broad range of warm climates. The simulations show a spontaneous transition to superrotation, i.e., westerly winds at upper levels above the equator. The momentum convergence leading to superrotation is driven by eastward-propagating equatorial waves with structure similar to the modern Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), whose amplitude increases strongly with temperature. We analyze the moist static energy (MSE) budget of the model's MJO to identify mechanisms leading to its enhanced amplitude. Two such mechanisms are identified: a rapid increase of mean low-level MSE with rising temperature, as found in previous work, and reduced damping of the MJO by synoptic-scale eddies. Both effects imply a reduced gross moist stability and enhanced MJO amplitude. The reduced eddy damping is caused by the transition to superrotation, which allows a greater penetration of extratropical eddies into the equatorial zone; the dominant effect of this greater penetration is to flatten the meridional gradient zonal-mean MSE, which effectively impedes the generation of anomalous MSE divergence by MJO-modulated eddies. This mechanism implies a positive feedback between superrotation and the MJO which may hasten the transition into a strongly superrotating state.

  12. Jurassic Paleolatitudes, Paleogeography, and Climate Transitions In the Mexican Subcontinen

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Molina-Garza, R. S.; Geissman, J. W.; Lawton, T. F.

    2014-12-01

    Jurassic northward migration of Mexico, trailing the North America plate, resulted in temporal evolution of climate-sensitive depositional environments. Lower-Middle Jurassic rocks in central Mexico contain a record of warm-humid conditions, which are indicated by coal and compositionally mature sandstone deposited in continental environments. Preliminary paleomagnetic data indicate that these rocks were deposited at near-equatorial paleolatitudes. The Middle Jurassic (ca. 170 Ma) Diquiyú volcanic sequence in central Oaxaca give an overall mean of D=82.2º/ I= +4.1º (n=10; k=17.3, α95=12º). In the Late Jurassic, the Gulf of Mexico formed as a subsidiary basin of the Atlantic Ocean, when the supercontinent Pangaea ruptured. Upper Jurassic strata, including eolianite and widespread evaporite deposits, across Mexico indicate dry-arid conditions. Available paleomagnetic data (compaction-corrected) from eolianites in northeast Mexico indicate deposition at ~15-20ºN. As North America moved northward during Jurassic opening of the Atlantic, different latitudinal regions experienced coeval Late Jurassic climatic shifts. Climate transitions have been widely recognized in the Colorado plateau region. The plateau left the horse-latitudes in the late Middle Jurassic to reach temperate humid climates at ~40ºN in the latest Jurassic. In turn, the southern end of the North America plate (central Mexico) reached arid horse-latitudes in the Late Jurassic. At that time, epeiric platforms developed in the circum-Gulf region after a long period of margin extension. We suggest that Upper Jurassic hydrocarbon source rocks in the circum-Gulf region accumulated on these platforms as warm epeiric hypersaline seas and the Gulf of Mexico itself were fertilized by an influx of wind-blown silt from continental regions. Additional nutrients were brought to shallow zones of photosynthesis by ocean upwelling driven by changes in the continental landmass configuration.

  13. Coincident exposure/drowning surfaces within Middle Cambrian Grand Cycles, East Tennessee: A model for abrupt limestone/shale transitions/sequence boundaries

    SciTech Connect

    Rankey, E.C.; Srinivasan, K.; Walker, K.R. . Dept. of Geological Science)

    1992-01-01

    Vertical transition from limestones to shales mark the boundaries of Cambrian Grand Cycles in Passive Margin Sequences over a wide geographic area. Field, petrographic, and geochemical evidence from near platform-edge mudstones and boundstones and platform-edge boundstones at the tops of the Craig Limestone and Maryville Limestone of the Conasauga Group in the southern Appalachians indicate platform death by subaerial exposure, followed by platform drowning and subsequent onlap of siliciclastic deposits. Physical evidence, in the form of scalloped truncation surfaces, as well as petrographic evidence consisting of wholesale and fabric-selective dissolution, internal brecciation, and vadose silt deposition indicate meteoric diagenesis following exposure. Depleted stable oxygen isotope compositions of inter- and intragranular blocky clear calcite spar of the Maryville Limestone have a mean delta O-18 composition of [minus]9.3[per thousand] (PDB) and a mean delta C-13 composition of +0.01[per thousand](PDB). Preliminary data from the Craig Limestone indicate similar delta C-13 values, but more depleted. Thus, the authors propose a common origin for the limestone-shale transitions at the top of these two units. Subaerial exposure during a sea-level fall at the top of these carbonate units terminated carbonate deposition. During exposure, a meteoric-water lens developed in the platform sediments leading to early diagenetic alteration. A rapid relative sea-level rise then drowned the platform, followed by subsidence and deepening during the lag-time before the onset of carbonate deposition. The deepening suppressed carbonate production and allowed fine siliciclastics characteristic of the adjacent basin to onlap the drowned platform.

  14. Abrupt changes in rainfall during the twentieth century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Narisma, Gemma T.; Foley, Jonathan A.; Licker, Rachel; Ramankutty, Navin

    2007-03-01

    Complex interactions in the climate system can give rise to strong positive feedback mechanisms that may lead to sudden climatic changes. The prolonged Sahel drought and the Dust Bowl are examples of 20th century abrupt climatic changes that had serious effects on ecosystems and societies. Here we analyze global historical rainfall observations to detect regions that have undergone large, sudden decreases in rainfall. Our results show that in the 20th century about 30 regions in the world have experienced such changes. These events are statistically significant at the 99% level, are persistent for at least ten years, and most have magnitudes of change that are 10% lower than the climatological normal (1901-2000 rainfall average). This analysis illustrates the extent and magnitude of abrupt climate changes across the globe during the 20th century and may be used for studying the dynamics of and the mechanisms behind these abrupt changes.

  15. Evidence for an abrupt transition in the mantle-derived source to the Long Valley Caldera rhyolites after the climactic eruption: from subduction-modified lithosphere to asthenosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Waters, L.; Lange, R. A.

    2014-12-01

    Shortly after the climactic eruption of ~600 km3 of Bishop Tuff zoned rhyolitic magma, ~100 km3 of crystal-poor Early Rhyolite erupted inside Long Valley Caldera between ~750-650 ka as domes, glassy lavas, and tuffs (Hildreth, 2004). Despite similarities in bulk composition (e.g., 73-75 wt% SiO2; ~100 ppm Sr), there are marked differences between the Late (≥ 790°C) Bishop Tuff and postcaldera Early Rhyolites. Although crystal-poor (<5%), the Early Rhyolites are often saturated with 7-8 mineral phases (plag + opx + ilm + tmte + biotite + apatite + zircon ± pyrrhotite), but without the quartz, sanidine, and cpx additionally found in the more crystal-rich (12-24%) Late Bishop Tuff. Pre-eruptive temperatures, on the basis of two Fe-Ti oxides, range from 720-860°C, and ∆NNO values range from-0.4 to -0.9 (consistent with abundant ilmenite). Thus the Early Rhyolites record fO2 values that are nearly two orders of magnitude lower than those in the Late Bishop Tuff (∆NNO = +1; Hildreth and Wilson, 2007). Application of the plagioclase-liquid hygrometer to Early Rhyolites gives pre-eruptive water contents ≤ 4.4 wt% H2O. The phenocrysts in Early Rhyolite obsidians often display euhedral and/or diffusion-limited growth textures, suggesting degassing-induced crystallization during rapid ascent. Isotopic data from the literature (e.g., Simon et al., 2014 and references therein) show that Long Valley rhyolites were derived from both crustal and mantle sources. We hypothesize that the drop in fO2 between the Late Bishop Tuff and Early Rhyolites may reflect a transition in their respective mantle source, from subduction-modified lithosphere to asthenosphere. Such a time-progressive transition in the mantle source of erupted basalts is seen throughout the Great Basin, occurring earliest in its central region and more recently toward its western margin (e.g. Cousens et al., 2012). Although the geochemistry of Quaternary basalts erupted around Long Valley indicate a

  16. Slow noise in the period of a biological oscillator underlies gradual trends and abrupt transitions in phasic relationships in hybrid neural networks.

    PubMed

    Thounaojam, Umeshkanta S; Cui, Jianxia; Norman, Sharon E; Butera, Robert J; Canavier, Carmen C

    2014-05-01

    In order to study the ability of coupled neural oscillators to synchronize in the presence of intrinsic as opposed to synaptic noise, we constructed hybrid circuits consisting of one biological and one computational model neuron with reciprocal synaptic inhibition using the dynamic clamp. Uncoupled, both neurons fired periodic trains of action potentials. Most coupled circuits exhibited qualitative changes between one-to-one phase-locking with fairly constant phasic relationships and phase slipping with a constant progression in the phasic relationships across cycles. The phase resetting curve (PRC) and intrinsic periods were measured for both neurons, and used to construct a map of the firing intervals for both the coupled and externally forced (PRC measurement) conditions. For the coupled network, a stable fixed point of the map predicted phase locking, and its absence produced phase slipping. Repetitive application of the map was used to calibrate different noise models to simultaneously fit the noise level in the measurement of the PRC and the dynamics of the hybrid circuit experiments. Only a noise model that added history-dependent variability to the intrinsic period could fit both data sets with the same parameter values, as well as capture bifurcations in the fixed points of the map that cause switching between slipping and locking. We conclude that the biological neurons in our study have slowly-fluctuating stochastic dynamics that confer history dependence on the period. Theoretical results to date on the behavior of ensembles of noisy biological oscillators may require re-evaluation to account for transitions induced by slow noise dynamics. PMID:24830924

  17. Impact of Climate events over the Last Glacial-Interglacial Transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoek, Wim; Birks, Hilary; WG4Members, Intimate

    2013-04-01

    The time period from 60-8 ka cal BP is marked by a series of abrupt climate events that became apparent from especially the Greenland Ice core records. These ice core records furthermore provided a precise and detailed chronology for the occurrence of these climate events. In the European terrestrial environment numerous studies have shown that these climate events have had an impact on the environment, ranging from geomorphological changes, changes in vegetation composition, faunal composition, and human behaviour and development. However, the recognition of the impact of the different events is strongly dependent on reliable age models for the environmental records. This requires a careful selection and analysis of existing data. Working Group 4 of the INTIMATE COST action aims to review the nature and quality of climate reconstructions of past environmental change across the full range of European environments (Mediterranean to sub-Arctic). For this we try to enlarge the European network of researchers, stimulate data sharing and eventually synthesise thematic environmental datasets. Important aspects are to identify the impacts of abrupt and extreme change and reveal the timing, duration and thresholds of climate impact. The first results for selected climate events show that clear gradients and thresholds exist, especially in ecotonal environmental settings. Resilience and inertia of the ecosystem and its components will determine whether thresholds are crossed or not and whether changes are so large that they could be considered as a regime shift (for example the change from tundra or steppe to forest). Environmental and particularly biotic responses will always lag the climate driver by very small to considerable amounts of time, depending on the biological traits and distributions of the organisms concerned. Therefore, we should not expect the apparent consequences of climate-driven changes to be synchronous across the European continent. We aim to identify

  18. Migration of the Antarctic Polar Front through the mid-Pleistocene transition: evidence and climatic implications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kemp, A. E. S.; Grigorov, I.; Pearce, R. B.; Naveira Garabato, A. C.

    2010-08-01

    The Antarctic Polar Front is an important biogeochemical divider in the Southern Ocean. Laminated diatom mat deposits record episodes of massive flux of the diatom Thalassiothrix antarctica beneath the Antarctic Polar Front and provide a marker for tracking the migration of the Front through time. Ocean Drilling Program Sites 1091, 1093 and 1094 are the only deep piston cored record hitherto sampled from the sediments of the circumpolar biogenic opal belt. Mapping of diatom mat deposits between these sites indicates a glacial-interglacial front migration of up to 6 degrees of latitude in the early/mid Pleistocene. The mid-Pleistocene transition marks a stepwise minimum 7° northward migration of the locus of the Polar Front sustained for about 450 kyr until an abrupt southward return to a locus similar to its modern position and further south than any mid-Pleistocene locus. This interval from a "900 ka event" that saw major cooling of the oceans and a δ 13C minimum through to the 424 ka Mid-Brunhes Event at Termination V is also seemingly characterised by 1) sustained decreased carbonate in the sub-tropical south Atlantic, 2) reduced strength of Antarctic deep meridional circulation, 3) lower interglacial temperatures and lower interglacial atmospheric CO 2 levels (by some 30 per mil) than those of the last 400 kyr, evidencing less complete deglaciation. This evidence is consistent with a prolonged period lasting 450 kyr of only partial ventilation of the deep ocean during interglacials and suggests that the mechanisms highlighted by recent hypotheses linking mid-latitude atmospheric conditions to the extent of deep ocean ventilation and carbon sequestration over glacial-interglacial cycles are likely in operation during the longer time scale characteristic of the mid-Pleistocene transition. The cooling that initiated the "900 ka event" may have been driven by minima in insolation amplitude related to eccentricity modulation of precession that also affected low

  19. Abruptness of Cascade Failures in Power Grids

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pahwa, Sakshi; Scoglio, Caterina; Scala, Antonio

    2014-01-01

    Electric power-systems are one of the most important critical infrastructures. In recent years, they have been exposed to extreme stress due to the increasing demand, the introduction of distributed renewable energy sources, and the development of extensive interconnections. We investigate the phenomenon of abrupt breakdown of an electric power-system under two scenarios: load growth (mimicking the ever-increasing customer demand) and power fluctuations (mimicking the effects of renewable sources). Our results on real, realistic and synthetic networks indicate that increasing the system size causes breakdowns to become more abrupt; in fact, mapping the system to a solvable statistical-physics model indicates the occurrence of a first order transition in the large size limit. Such an enhancement for the systemic risk failures (black-outs) with increasing network size is an effect that should be considered in the current projects aiming to integrate national power-grids into ``super-grids''.

  20. Abruptness of cascade failures in power grids.

    PubMed

    Pahwa, Sakshi; Scoglio, Caterina; Scala, Antonio

    2014-01-01

    Electric power-systems are one of the most important critical infrastructures. In recent years, they have been exposed to extreme stress due to the increasing demand, the introduction of distributed renewable energy sources, and the development of extensive interconnections. We investigate the phenomenon of abrupt breakdown of an electric power-system under two scenarios: load growth (mimicking the ever-increasing customer demand) and power fluctuations (mimicking the effects of renewable sources). Our results on real, realistic and synthetic networks indicate that increasing the system size causes breakdowns to become more abrupt; in fact, mapping the system to a solvable statistical-physics model indicates the occurrence of a first order transition in the large size limit. Such an enhancement for the systemic risk failures (black-outs) with increasing network size is an effect that should be considered in the current projects aiming to integrate national power-grids into "super-grids". PMID:24424239

  1. Could massive Arctic sea ice export to the North Atlantic be the real cause of abrupt climate change during the last deglaciation?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coletti, A. J.; Condron, A.

    2015-12-01

    Using a coupled ocean-sea ice model (MITgcm), we investigate whether the break-up and mobilization of thick, multiyear, Arctic sea ice might have supplied enough freshwater to the Nordic Seas to reduce North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) formation and weaken the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Numerical simulations of a Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) environment show the potential for sea ice to grow to ~30m thick, storing ~1.41x105 km3 of freshwater as sea ice in the Arctic (this is ~10 times the volume of freshwater stored in the modern-day Arctic). Releasing this volume of sea ice from the Arctic in 1-yr is equivalent to a high-latitude freshwater forcing of ~4.5 Sv, which is comparable (or larger) in magnitude to most meltwater floods emanating from land-based glacial lakes (e.g. Agassiz) during the last deglaciation. Opening of the Bering Strait and Barents Sea are two plausible mechanisms that may have initiated sea ice mobilization. Opening Bering Strait increases sea ice transport through the Fram Strait by 7% and results in a 22% weakening of AMOC for 2000 years and a >3°C warming in the Arctic basin at 800 m depth. Opening Barents Sea to simulate a collapse of the Fennoscandian ice sheet has little impact on Arctic sea ice and freshwater export to the North Atlantic, but weakens AMOC ~8%. In a simulation with both straits open there is a transition to near-modern sea ice circulation pattern and a 24% reduction in AMOC. Experiments with the Bering Strait open and sea ice artificially capped to 10 m show barely any difference to those when sea ice can grow to ~30m, suggesting that changes in topography have a much greater impact on AMOC than the freshwater forcing from sea ice melting in the Nordic Seas.

  2. The use of complex network techniques to determine (future) climate transitions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, Qingyi; Viebahn, Jan; Dijkstra, Henk A.

    2015-04-01

    In recent years much research activity has focused on the application of complex network techniques to problems in climate variability. This has been particularly successful in climate transition problems, where relatively simple topological properties of reconstructed interaction networks have provided useful early warning indicators of transitions in the ocean circulation and vegetation patterns. In this presentation, a critical evaluation will be given on recent results on such transition problems, with a focus on the collapse of the Atlantic Ocean circulation.

  3. The Subtropical Cloud Transition: From the Turbulence Scale to Global Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teixeira, J.

    2014-12-01

    Subtropical boundary layer cloud regimes such as stratocumulus, cumulus and the transition from stratocumulus to cumulus, play a key role in cloud-climate interactions. Recent studies have highlighted the lack of complete understanding of this transition and the fact that climate models do not simulate in a realistic manner the physics of the transition. In this presentation, recent results on the global characterization of the subtropical cloud transition from satellite data are used to illustrate its essential properties and the key questions remaining for a complete understanding of the transition. Large-Eddy Simulations (LES) and observations of the cloud transition are used to develop parameterizations, simple models of the transition and a better understanding of the dynamics that leads to the ultimate demise of stratocumulus and its potential impact on climate change.

  4. RESTORING COASTAL ECOSYSTEMS: ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Consensus exists that U.S. coastal ecosystems are severely degraded due to a variety of human-factors requiring large financial expenditures to restore and manage. Yet, even as controversy surrounds human factors in ecosystem degradation in the Gulf of Mexico, Chesapeake Bay, an...

  5. Abrupt Climate Change Research Act of 2009

    THOMAS, 111th Congress

    Sen. Collins, Susan M. [R-ME

    2009-09-14

    09/14/2009 Read twice and referred to the Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation. (text of measure as introduced: CR S9330) (All Actions) Tracker: This bill has the status IntroducedHere are the steps for Status of Legislation:

  6. Sonographic spectrum of placental abruption.

    PubMed

    Nyberg, D A; Cyr, D R; Mack, L A; Wilson, D A; Shuman, W P

    1987-01-01

    Fifty-seven cases of placental abruption detected by sonography were retrospectively reviewed. The location of hemorrhage was subchorionic in 46 cases (81%), retroplacental in nine cases (16%), and preplacental in two cases (4%). Subchorionic hematomas were more frequently shown in the 33 patients presenting before 20 menstrual weeks (91%) than in the 24 patients presenting after 20 weeks (67%). The echogenicity of hemorrhage depended on the time the sonogram was performed relative to the onset of symptoms: Acute hemorrhage was hyperechoic to isoechoic compared with the placenta, while resolving hematomas became hypoechoic within 1 week and sonolucent within 2 weeks. Acute hemorrhage was occasionally difficult to distinguish from the adjacent placenta. This occurred in five retroplacental hematomas that showed only an abnormally thick and heterogeneous placenta. Nine cases of placental abruption were initially confused with other mass lesions. Placental abruption causes a wide spectrum of sonographic findings that may be overlooked or misdiagnosed. PMID:3538831

  7. Analysis of climatic conditions and preliminary assessment of alternative cooling strategies for houses in California transition climate zones

    SciTech Connect

    Huang, Y.J.; Zhang, H.

    1995-07-01

    This is a preliminary scoping study done as part of the {open_quotes}Alternatives to Compressive Cooling in California Transition Climates{close_quotes} project, which has the goal of demonstrating that houses in the transitional areas between the coast and the Central Valley of California do not require air-conditioning if they are properly designed and operated. The first part of this report analyzes the climate conditions within the transitional areas, with emphasis on design rather than seasonal conditions. Transitional climates are found to be milder but more variable than those further inland. The design temperatures under the most stringent design criteria, e.g. 0.1 % annual, are similar to those in the Valley, but significantly lower under more relaxed design criteria, e.g., 2% annual frequency. Transition climates also have large day-night temperature swings, indicating significant potential for night cooling, and wet-bulb depressions in excess of 25 F, indicating good potential for evaporative cooling. The second part of the report is a preliminary assessment using DOE-2 computer simulations of the effectiveness of alternative cooling and control strategies in improving indoor comfort conditions in two conventional Title-24 houses modeled in various transition climate locations. The cooling measures studied include increased insulation, light colors, low-emissivity glazing, window overhangs, and exposed floor slab. The control strategies studied include natural and mechanical ventilation, and direct and two-stage evaporative cooling. The results indicate the cooling strategies all have limited effectiveness, and need to be combined to produce significant improvements in indoor comfort. Natural and forced ventilation provide similar improvements in indoor conditions, but during peak cooling periods, these will still be above the comfort zone. Two-stage evaporative coolers can maintain indoor comfort at all hours, but not so direct evaporative coolers.

  8. TESTING THE LINK BETWEEN TERRESTRIAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND GALACTIC SPIRAL ARM TRANSIT

    SciTech Connect

    Overholt, Andrew C.; Melott, Adrian L.; Pohl, Martin E-mail: melott@ku.ed

    2009-11-10

    We re-examine past suggestions of a close link between terrestrial climate change and the Sun's transit of spiral arms in its path through the Milky Way galaxy. These links produced concrete fits, deriving the unknown spiral pattern speed from terrestrial climate correlations. We test these fits against new data on spiral structure based on CO data that do not make simplifying assumptions about symmetry and circular rotation. If we compare the times of these transits with changes in the climate of Earth, the claimed correlations not only disappear, but we also find that they cannot be resurrected for any reasonable pattern speed.

  9. The coupled δ 13C-radiocarbon systematics of three Late Glacial/early Holocene speleothems; insights into soil and cave processes at climatic transitions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rudzka, D.; McDermott, F.; Baldini, L. M.; Fleitmann, D.; Moreno, A.; Stoll, H.

    2011-08-01

    The coupled δ 13C-radiocarbon systematics of three European stalagmites deposited during the Late Glacial and early Holocene were investigated to understand better how the carbon isotope systematics of speleothems respond to climate transitions. The emphasis is on understanding how speleothems may record climate-driven changes in the proportions of biogenic (soil carbon) and limestone bedrock derived carbon. At two of the three sites, the combined δ 13C and 14C data argue against greater inputs of limestone carbon as the sole cause of the observed shift to higher δ 13C during the cold Younger Dryas. In these stalagmites (GAR-01 from La Garma cave, N. Spain and So-1 from Sofular cave, Turkey), the combined changes in δ 13C and initial 14C activities suggest enhanced decomposition of old stored, more recalcitrant, soil carbon at the onset of the warmer early Holocene. Alternative explanations involving gradual temporal changes between open- and closed-system behaviour during the Late Glacial are difficult to reconcile with observed changes in speleothem δ 13C and the growth rates. In contrast, a stalagmite from Pindal cave (N. Spain) indicates an abrupt change in carbon inputs linked to local hydrological and disequilibrium isotope fractionation effects, rather than climate change. For the first time, it is shown that while the initial 14C activities of all three stalagmites broadly follow the contemporaneous atmospheric 14C trends (the Younger Dryas atmospheric 14C anomaly can be clearly discerned), subtle changes in speleothem initial 14C activities are linked to climate-driven changes in soil carbon turnover at a climate transition.

  10. Abrupt plate accelerations shape rifted continental margins.

    PubMed

    Brune, Sascha; Williams, Simon E; Butterworth, Nathaniel P; Müller, R Dietmar

    2016-08-11

    Rifted margins are formed by persistent stretching of continental lithosphere until breakup is achieved. It is well known that strain-rate-dependent processes control rift evolution, yet quantified extension histories of Earth's major passive margins have become available only recently. Here we investigate rift kinematics globally by applying a new geotectonic analysis technique to revised global plate reconstructions. We find that rifted margins feature an initial, slow rift phase (less than ten millimetres per year, full rate) and that an abrupt increase of plate divergence introduces a fast rift phase. Plate acceleration takes place before continental rupture and considerable margin area is created during each phase. We reproduce the rapid transition from slow to fast extension using analytical and numerical modelling with constant force boundary conditions. The extension models suggest that the two-phase velocity behaviour is caused by a rift-intrinsic strength--velocity feedback, which can be robustly inferred for diverse lithosphere configurations and rheologies. Our results explain differences between proximal and distal margin areas and demonstrate that abrupt plate acceleration during continental rifting is controlled by the nonlinear decay of the resistive rift strength force. This mechanism provides an explanation for several previously unexplained rapid absolute plate motion changes, offering new insights into the balance of plate driving forces through time. PMID:27437571

  11. An Abrupt Change in the African Monsoon at the end of the Younger Dryas?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Talbot, M. R.; Filippi, M. L.; Jensen, N. B.; Tiercelin, J.

    2005-12-01

    A variety of proxy palaeoclimatic records from tropical Africa and the adjacent oceans suggest that a climatic event equivalent to the Younger Dryas (YD) also affected this region. To date however, little attention has been directed towards the end of the YD in Africa, even though it has been identified as a period of particularly rapid and profound climatic change in the circum-North Atlantic region. High-resolution studies of variations in the elemental and stable carbon- and nitrogen-isotope composition of organic matter in cores from Lakes Malawi, Tanganyika and Bosumtwi (tropical Africa) indicate an abrupt change in the wind-driven circulation of these lakes that, within the limits of available chronologies, was contemporaneous with the end of the YD in the northern hemisphere. The change was apparently coincident with the transition to humid conditions in the central Sahara, with shifts in surface winds recorded in cores from off the coasts of East and West Africa, and possibly also with the onset of the last phase of ice accumulation on Mt. Kilimanjaro. Together, the evidence suggests an abrupt northward translation of the African monsoon system at ca. 11.5 +/- 0.3 cal. ka BP.

  12. Role of the Bering Strait on the hysteresis of the ocean conveyor belt circulation and glacial climate stability.

    PubMed

    Hu, Aixue; Meehl, Gerald A; Han, Weiqing; Timmermann, Axel; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Liu, Zhengyu; Washington, Warren M; Large, William; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Kimoto, Masahide; Lambeck, Kurt; Wu, Bingyi

    2012-04-24

    Abrupt climate transitions, known as Dansgaard-Oeschger and Heinrich events, occurred frequently during the last glacial period, specifically from 80-11 thousand years before present, but were nearly absent during interglacial periods and the early stages of glacial periods, when major ice-sheets were still forming. Here we show, with a fully coupled state-of-the-art climate model, that closing the Bering Strait and preventing its throughflow between the Pacific and Arctic Oceans during the glacial period can lead to the emergence of stronger hysteresis behavior of the ocean conveyor belt circulation to create conditions that are conducive to triggering abrupt climate transitions. Hence, it is argued that even for greenhouse warming, abrupt climate transitions similar to those in the last glacial time are unlikely to occur as the Bering Strait remains open. PMID:22493225

  13. North Atlantic, ITCZ, and Monsoonal Climate Links

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haug, G. H.; Deplazes, G.; Peterson, L. C.; Brauer, A.; Mingram, J.; Dulski, P.; Sigman, D. M.

    2008-12-01

    Major element chemistry and color data from sediment cores in the anoxic Cariaco Basin off Venezuela record with (sub)annual resolution large and abrupt shifts in the hydrologic cycle of the tropical Atlantic during the last 80 ka. These data suggest a direct connection between the position of the ITCZ over northern South America, the strength of trade winds, and the temperature gradient to the high northern latitudes, ENSO, and monsoonal climate in Asia. The mechanisms behind these decadal-scale ITCZ-monsoon swings can be further explored at major climate transitions such as the onset of Younger Dryas cooling at ~12.7 ka, one of the most abrupt climate changes observed in ice core, lake and marine records in the North Atlantic realm and much of the Northern Hemisphere. Annually laminated sediments from ideally record the dynamics of abrupt climate changes since seasonal deposition immediately responds to climate and varve counts accurately estimate the time of change. We compare sub-annual geochemical data from a lake in Western Germany, which provides one of the best-dated records currently available for this climate transition, with the new the Cariaco Basin record and a new and higher resolution record from Lake Huguang Maar in China, and the Greenland ice core record. The Lake Meerfelder Maar record indicates an abrupt increase in storminess, occurring from one year to the next at 12,678 ka BP, coincident with other observed climate changes in the region. We interpret this shift of the wintertime winds to signify an abrupt change in the North Atlantic westerlies to a stronger and more zonal jet. The observed wind shift provides the atmospheric mechanism for the strong temporal link between North Atlantic overturning and European climate during the last deglaciation, tightly coupled to ITCZ migrations observed in the Cariaco Basin sediments, and a stronger east Asian Monsoon winter monsoon as seen in lake Huguang Maar, when cave stalagmite oxygen isotope data

  14. Transition of SSMI Data to a Climate Data Record

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Semunegus, H.; Bates, J. J.

    2007-12-01

    Since 1993, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) has served as the active archive of passive microwave satellite measurements from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program's (DMSP) Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI) instrument. SSMI data measurements have been used extensively to generate climate data sets (including rain, snow, ice, cloud liquid water, and total precipitable water) in support of both national and international programs. A project by NCDC and NOAA's Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR) is working towards the goal of regenerating a high quality SSMI Climate Data Record as defined by NOAA's Scientific Data Stewardship (SDS) program. As part of this effort, the SSMI Temperature Data Record (TDR) and Sensor Data Record (SDR) datasets have been reprocessed as value-added network Common Data Form (netCDF) orbit files. Data quality control flags embedded in netCDF orbit files preserve the original data, while warning users of erroneous geolocation, radiance and temporal values at the pixel level. These orbit files will also extend the period of record of SSMI data publicly available at NOAA's Comprehensive Large-Array Stewardship System (CLASS) by several years (August 1993-February 1997). Making earlier SSMI data available to customers and improving the quality of the SSMI dataset are important steps in attaining higher levels of dataset maturity in terms of scientific value and data preservation.

  15. Model projections of an imminent transition to a more arid climate in southwestern North America.

    PubMed

    Seager, Richard; Ting, Mingfang; Held, Isaac; Kushnir, Yochanan; Lu, Jian; Vecchi, Gabriel; Huang, Huei-Ping; Harnik, Nili; Leetmaa, Ants; Lau, Ngar-Cheung; Li, Cuihua; Velez, Jennifer; Naik, Naomi

    2007-05-25

    How anthropogenic climate change will affect hydroclimate in the arid regions of southwestern North America has implications for the allocation of water resources and the course of regional development. Here we show that there is a broad consensus among climate models that this region will dry in the 21st century and that the transition to a more arid climate should already be under way. If these models are correct, the levels of aridity of the recent multiyear drought or the Dust Bowl and the 1950s droughts will become the new climatology of the American Southwest within a time frame of years to decades. PMID:17412920

  16. Model Projections of an Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in Southwestern North America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seager, Richard; Ting, Mingfang; Held, Isaac; Kushnir, Yochanan; Lu, Jian; Vecchi, Gabriel; Huang, Huei-Ping; Harnik, Nili; Leetmaa, Ants; Lau, Ngar-Cheung; Li, Cuihua; Velez, Jennifer; Naik, Naomi

    2007-05-01

    How anthropogenic climate change will affect hydroclimate in the arid regions of southwestern North America has implications for the allocation of water resources and the course of regional development. Here we show that there is a broad consensus among climate models that this region will dry in the 21st century and that the transition to a more arid climate should already be under way. If these models are correct, the levels of aridity of the recent multiyear drought or the Dust Bowl and the 1950s droughts will become the new climatology of the American Southwest within a time frame of years to decades.

  17. Perceived school climate across the transition from elementary to middle school.

    PubMed

    Madjar, Nir; Cohen-Malayev, Maya

    2016-06-01

    The implications of the transition from elementary to middle school are of major concern for educators and researchers worldwide. Previous studies have yielded ambiguous findings; some have indicated negative outcomes of school transition, whereas others have demonstrated null or even positive effects. The aim of the current research was to explore the impact of school transition on students' perceived educational climate while distinguishing between transition effects and age-related effects by comparing students who transitioned to middle schools at the end of the sixth grade versus those who did not. The research included 2 complementary studies. Study 1 was based on a large-scale national survey in Israel (N = 71,739) that compared students from fifth to eighth grades using a cross-sectional design, in which the students completed a survey once in the middle of the school year. Study 2 followed a sample of 415 students across 2 years including 4 waves of survey completion, at the beginning and the end of 2 consecutive school years, during which 55% of the students experienced a transition and 45% remained in elementary school. In both studies, the students completed self-report surveys assessing the perceived school climate. Both multilevel and nonlinear growth-curve analyses consistently indicated that the students who transitioned reported positive perceptions of the school climate before the transition that declined more quickly and become equal to or lower than those of the nontransitioning students. Teachers should apply practices that enhance students' sense of support, specifically following school transitions. (PsycINFO Database Record PMID:26479852

  18. Abrupt changes in early Holocene tropical sea surface temperature derived from coral records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beck, J. Warren; Récy, Jacques; Taylor, Fred; Edwards, R. Lawrence; Cabioch, Guy

    1997-02-01

    For many high-latitude regions of the globe, it is now clear that the transition to modern climate following the Last Glacial Maximum was punctuated by a number of rapid and substantial climate oscillations1,2. In contrast, relatively little is known about how the tropics responded to the deglaciation, because few high-resolution records are available from lower latitudes. Corals have recently been shown to provide an important source of tropical climate records because they can be easily and accurately dated, using either 14C or 230Th, and because past sea surface temperatures can be recovered from the Sr/Ca ratios in coral skeletons. Here we use this technique to derive several early Holocene sea surface temperature records from a coral drill core recovered from Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu in the tropical southwest Pacific Ocean. These records indicate that sea surface temperatures in this region were depressed by as much as 6.5 °C below modern values at ~ 10,350 calendar years BP, but rose very abruptly during the following 1,500 years. This temperature increase lags the post-Younger Dryas increase observed in a coral record from the tropical Atlantic Ocean3by about 3,000 years, an unexpected phase-shift that may ultimately shed light on the mechanisms of deglacial climate change.

  19. Climate Literacy in the Classroom: Supporting Teachers in the Transition to NGSS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rogers, M. J. B.; Merrill, J.; Harcourt, P.; Petrone, C.; Shea, N.; Mead, H.

    2014-12-01

    In an effort to address gaps in scientific achievement identified in international testing, eleven states have now adopted the Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS). Climate change is currently not incorporated systematically across K-12 classrooms, but is prominent in middle and high school NGSS. The Maryland Delaware Climate Change Education, Assessment, and Research project (MADE CLEAR, a member of the NSF Climate Change Education Program Alliance) is working with Maryland and Delaware State Departments of Education to ease this transition. MADE CLEAR is identifying appropriate materials and providing professional development and classroom support as NGSS-aligned climate curricula are piloted, refined, and adopted by middle school science teachers across both states. Year-long professional development for middle school science teachers begins with a week-long Climate Science Academy that includes climate science content, hands-on experience with vetted classroom activities, familiarization with technology and online resources, and development of curriculum adaptation plans. We will highlight the characteristics deemed most critical for classroom teacher support as identified by the teachers from the first two cohorts, review classroom implementation challenges, and describe planned 2014-2015 school-year sessions. Data from the 2014 (second) cohort of teachers will include pre- and post-assessment data from the Climate Science Academy and impacts of the project on the first cohort (2013) of teachers. Scale-up plans for both states will also be presented.

  20. The Impact of Near-term Climate Policy Choices on Technology and Emissions Transition Pathways

    SciTech Connect

    Eom, Jiyong; Edmonds, James A.; Krey, Volker; Johnson, Nils; Longden, Thomas; Luderer, Gunnar; Riahi, Keywan; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2015-01-01

    This paper explores the implications of delays associated with currently formulated climate policies (compared to optimal policies) for long-term transition pathways to limit climate forcing to 450ppm CO2e on the basis of the AMPERE Work Package 2 model comparison study. The paper highlights the critical importance of the 2030-2050 period for ambitious mitigation strategies. In this period, the most rapid shift to non-greenhouse gas emitting technology occurs. In the delayed response emissions mitigation scenarios, an even faster transition rate in this period is required to compensate for the additional emissions before 2030. Our physical deployment measures indicate that, without CCS, technology deployment rates in the 2030-2050 period would become considerably high. Yet the presence of CCS greatly alleviates the challenges to the transition particularly after the delayed climate policies. The results also highlight the critical role that bioenergy and CO2 capture and storage (BECCS) could play. If this technology is available, transition pathways exceed the emissions budget in the mid-term, removing the excess with BECCS in the long term. Excluding either BE or CCS from the technology portfolio implies that emission reductions need to take place much earlier.

  1. NASA's Earth Observing System: The Transition from Climate Monitoring to Climate Change Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    King, Michael D.; Herring, David D.

    1998-01-01

    Earth's 4.5 billion year history is a study in change. Natural geological forces have been rearranging the surface features and climatic conditions of our planet since its beginning. There is scientific evidence that some of these natural changes have not only led to mass extinctions of species (e.g., dinosaurs), but have also severely impacted human civilizations. For instance, there is evidence that a relatively sudden climate change caused a 300-year drought that contributed to the downfall of Akkadia, one of the most powerful empires in the Middle-East region around 2200 BC. More recently, the "little ice age" from 1200-1400 AD forced the Vikings to abandon Greenland when temperatures there dropped by about 1.5 C, rendering it too difficult to grow enough crops to sustain the population. Today, there is compelling scientific evidence that human activities have attained the magnitude of a geological force and are speeding up the rate of global change. For example, carbon dioxide levels have risen 30 percent since the industrial revolution and about 40 percent of the world's land surface has been transformed by humans. We don't understand the cause-and-effect relationships among Earth's land, ocean, and atmosphere well enough to predict what, if any, impacts these rapid changes will have on future climate conditions. We need to make many measurements all over the world, over a long period of time, in order to assemble the information needed to construct accurate computer models that will enable us to forecast climate change. In 1988, the Earth System Sciences Committee, sponsored by NASA, issued a report calling for an integrated, long-term strategy for measuring the vital signs of Earth's climate system. The report urged that the measurements must all be intimately coupled with focused process studies, they must facilitate development of Earth system models, and they must be stored in an information system that ensures open access to consistent, long-term data

  2. Vegetation and climate changes in western Amazonia during a previous Interglacial- Glacial transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cardenas, M. L.; Gosling, W. D.; Sherlock, S. C.; Poole, I.; Pennington, R. T.

    2009-12-01

    Amazonia is one of the most biodiverse areas of the world and its vegetation plays a crucial role in controlling the global climate through the regulation of the levels of atmospheric CO2. However, Amazonian ecosystems and their role in the climate system are threatened by ongoing the human impact (already estimated loss of 60% of the species in western Amazonia) and predicted climate change (+1.1-6.4oC by 2100). Unfortunately, there is absence of data relating to the ecological baseline function and response to global climate change of western Amazonian ecosystems in the absence of humans. To help anticipate the impact of future climate change predictions an improved understanding of the natural responses of tropical vegetation to known past climate change is required. Here we present the first study that shows the response of pristine tropical ecosystems in western Amazonia biodiversity hotspot to a major global climate change event (a Quaternary Interglacial-Glacial transition). Pleistocene lake/swamp sediments preserved at the Erazo study site (Lat. 00o 33’S, Long. 077o 52’W, 1927m alt.) today within tropical cloud forest vegetation provide a unique opportunity to examine the impact of past climate shifts. The sediment are >40,000 years old (radiocarbon infinite) and younger than 1 million years (presence of Alder biomarker) and consist of organic layers interbedded with volcanic ash (tephra). This study presents data from multiple proxies (fossil pollen, wood macrofossils and charcoal) to establish a comprehensive picture of regional and local vegetation change prior to human arrival. Our data show a change of vegetation from palm-dominated forest indicative of warm and wet conditions similar to the present at the base of this record, to a forest dominated by Podocarpus sp. suggesting cold and wet conditions at the top of the record. The transition between these two vegetation communities appears to be progressive with small sharp changes along the

  3. Global vegetation distribution and terrestrial climate evolution at the Eocene-Oligocene transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pound, Matthew; Salzmann, Ulrich

    2016-04-01

    The Eocene - Oligocene transition (EOT; ca. 34-33.5 Ma) is widely considered to be the biggest step in Cenozoic climate evolution. Geochemical marine records show both surface and bottom water cooling, associated with the expansion of Antarctic glaciers and a reduction in the atmospheric CO2 concentration. However, the global response of the terrestrial biosphere to the EOT is less well understood and not uniform when comparing different regions. We present new global vegetation and terrestrial climate reconstructions of the Priabonian (late Eocene; 38-33.9 Ma) and Rupelian (early Oligocene; 33.9-28.45 Ma) by synthesising 215 pollen and spore localities. Using presence/absence data of pollen and spores with multivariate statistics has allowed the reconstruction of palaeo-biomes without relying on modern analogues. The reconstructed palaeo-biomes do not show the equator-ward shift at the EOT, which would be expected from a global cooling. Reconstructions of mean annual temperature, cold month mean temperature and warm month mean temperature do not show a global cooling of terrestrial climate across the EOT. Our new reconstructions differ from previous global syntheses by being based on an internally consistent statistically defined classification of palaeo-biomes and our terrestrial based climate reconstructions are in stark contrast to some marine based climate estimates. Our results raise new questions on the nature and extent of terrestrial global climate change at the EOT.

  4. Empirical Validation of Conceptual Climate Models for the Mid-Pleistocene Transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gallatin, A.; Camp, C. D.

    2015-12-01

    Conceptual climate models are useful for testing hypotheses regarding the processes underlying observations; but they generally can only qualitatively match the empirical records. Models based on substantially different underlying physics can have comparable correlations with any given observation, thus robust model validation procedures are needed. The Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT) is an ideal test case for the development of such procedures because the character and cause of the transition from a dominant 41 kyr cycle in the early Pleistocene to a dominant 100 kyr cycle in the late Pleistocene is poorly understood. Using Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition, we analyze multiple conceptual models for the MPT which are based on differing physical hypotheses and show how modern time-series-analysis techniques can improve climate-model validation by extracting and comparing subtler features of both the observations and models.

  5. Livestock in a changing climate: production system transitions as an adaptation strategy for agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weindl, Isabelle; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Popp, Alexander; Müller, Christoph; Havlík, Petr; Herrero, Mario; Schmitz, Christoph; Rolinski, Susanne

    2015-09-01

    Livestock farming is the world’s largest land use sector and utilizes around 60% of the global biomass harvest. Over the coming decades, climate change will affect the natural resource base of livestock production, especially the productivity of rangeland and feed crops. Based on a comprehensive impact modeling chain, we assess implications of different climate projections for agricultural production costs and land use change and explore the effectiveness of livestock system transitions as an adaptation strategy. Simulated climate impacts on crop yields and rangeland productivity generate adaptation costs amounting to 3% of total agricultural production costs in 2045 (i.e. 145 billion US). Shifts in livestock production towards mixed crop-livestock systems represent a resource- and cost-efficient adaptation option, reducing agricultural adaptation costs to 0.3% of total production costs and simultaneously abating deforestation by about 76 million ha globally. The relatively positive climate impacts on grass yields compared with crop yields favor grazing systems inter alia in South Asia and North America. Incomplete transitions in production systems already have a strong adaptive and cost reducing effect: a 50% shift to mixed systems lowers agricultural adaptation costs to 0.8%. General responses of production costs to system transitions are robust across different global climate and crop models as well as regarding assumptions on CO2 fertilization, but simulated values show a large variation. In the face of these uncertainties, public policy support for transforming livestock production systems provides an important lever to improve agricultural resource management and lower adaptation costs, possibly even contributing to emission reduction.

  6. Direct evidence for Antarctic Ice-Sheet variability across the Eocene-Oligocene boundary climate transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galeotti, S.; DeConto, R.; Florindo, F.; Lanci, L.; Naish, T.; Pagani, M.; Pollard, D.; Talarico, F.

    2011-12-01

    About ~34 million years ago, at the Eocene-Oligocene (E-O) boundary, Earth's climate underwent a substantial change from relatively ice-free "greenhouse" conditions to a glacial state marked by the establishment of a permanent ice sheet on Antarctica. Geochemical data and modeling suggests that decline of atmospheric pCO2 to a threshold level around 2.5X pre-industrial levels concomitant with an optimal orbital configuration for cold southern hemisphere summers provided the precursory conditions for extensive glaciation of Antarctica. Previous geological drill core records from the Antarctic margin indicate that the ice sheet reached continental extent and was calving at the coastline by the Earliest Oligocene. Notwithstanding these, our understanding of Antarctic cryospheric evolution across the E-O climate transition, relies almost entirely on marine geochemical proxies and reconstruction of sea-level changes from continental margin sequences. Hitherto it has not been possible to reconcile the pattern of inferred ice-sheet growth from these "far-field" proxy records with direct physical evidence of ice-volume changes from the Antarctic continental margin. Here we correlate cyclical changes recorded in sediment cores from western Ross Sea, which are related to oscillations in the volume of a growing East Antarctic Ice Sheet, with well-dated lower latitude records of orbital forcing and climate change across the E-O transition. We show that the EAIS was relatively small and unstable during the first ~200 thousands of years (kyr) of the E-O transition and that fully glaciated conditions did not occur until ~32.8 Ma, more than a million years after the glacial maximum of the climatic transition as recorded by geochemical proxies.

  7. The climatic sensitivity of the forest, savanna and forest-savanna transition in tropical South America.

    PubMed

    Hirota, Marina; Nobre, Carlos; Oyama, Marcos Daisuke; Bustamante, Mercedes M C

    2010-08-01

    *We used a climate-vegetation-natural fire (CVNF) conceptual model to evaluate the sensitivity and vulnerability of forest, savanna, and the forest-savanna transition to environmental changes in tropical South America. *Initially, under current environmental conditions, CVNF model results suggested that, in the absence of fires, tropical forests would extend c. 200 km into the presently observed savanna domain. *Environmental changes were then imposed upon the model in temperature, precipitation and lightning strikes. These changes ranged from 2 to 6 degrees C warming, +10 to -20% precipitation change and 0 to 15% increase in lightning frequency, which, in aggregate form, represent expected future climatic changes in response to global warming and deforestation. *The most critical vegetation changes are projected to take place over the easternmost portions of the basin, with a widening of the forest-savanna transition. The transition width would increase from 150 to c. 300 km, with tree cover losses ranging from 20 to 85%. This means that c. 6% of the areas currently covered by forests could potentially turn into grass-dominated savanna landscapes. The mechanism driving tree cover reduction consists of the combination of less favorable climate conditions for trees and more fire activity. In addition, this sensitivity analysis predicts that the current dry shrubland vegetation of northeast Brazil could potentially turn into a bare soil landscape. PMID:20609116

  8. Greenhouse gases, climate change and the transition from coal to low-carbon electricity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Myhrvold, N. P.; Caldeira, K.

    2012-03-01

    A transition from the global system of coal-based electricity generation to low-greenhouse-gas-emission energy technologies is required to mitigate climate change in the long term. The use of current infrastructure to build this new low-emission system necessitates additional emissions of greenhouse gases, and the coal-based infrastructure will continue to emit substantial amounts of greenhouse gases as it is phased out. Furthermore, ocean thermal inertia delays the climate benefits of emissions reductions. By constructing a quantitative model of energy system transitions that includes life-cycle emissions and the central physics of greenhouse warming, we estimate the global warming expected to occur as a result of build-outs of new energy technologies ranging from 100 GWe to 10 TWe in size and 1-100 yr in duration. We show that rapid deployment of low-emission energy systems can do little to diminish the climate impacts in the first half of this century. Conservation, wind, solar, nuclear power, and possibly carbon capture and storage appear to be able to achieve substantial climate benefits in the second half of this century; however, natural gas cannot.

  9. Transitional properties of droughts and related impacts of climate indices in the Pearl River basin, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiao, Mingzhong; Zhang, Qiang; Singh, Vijay P.; Liu, Lin

    2016-03-01

    Drought is the natural hazard poorly understood so far due to various mechanisms behind. Moreover, disastrous effects of drought on human society necessitate accurate forecasting of drought behaviors. In this case, to improve forecasting of drought in the Pearl River basin, a trivariate copula model has been developed and used to include the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) into model structure of Markov chain. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) has been used to monitor the drought in this study. Comparison with the preliminary correlation analysis between each month climate index and SPEI series indicated that the trivariate copula performs satisfactorily well in evaluation of influences of climate indices on the transition probabilities of drought. It is considered that the region with the negative vertical velocity is dominated by more precipitation and vice versa. Moreover, field patterns of 500 hPa vertical velocity anomalies related to each climate index have further corroborated the influences of climate indices on the drought behaviors. Besides, the mean extreme drought durations under different conditions of each climate index have also been investigated in this study. Results indicated that the mean extreme drought duration tends to be longer in the western part of the Pearl River basin during positive phase of ENSO while tends to be shorter during the positive phase of NAO and vice versa; in the central part of the Pearl River basin, the mean extreme drought duration tends to be shorter during the positive phase of ENSO, NAO and PDO while tends to be longer during the positive episode of IOD, and vice versa; in the eastern part of the Pearl River basin, the mean extreme drought duration tends to be shorter during the positive episode of ENSO and PDO, and vice versa. This study sheds new light on transitional behaviors of

  10. Enhanced soil moisture drying in transitional regions under a warming climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, Shanjun; Huang, Jianping

    2016-03-01

    We analyzed global trends of soil moisture for the period 1948-2010 using the Global Land Data Assimilation System data set. Soil moisture was dominated by negative trends, with pronounced drying over East Asia and the Sahel. Spatial analysis according to climatic region revealed that the most obvious drying occurred over transitional regions between dry and wet climates. The noticeable drying first took place in the humid transitional regions and extended to the dry transitional regions, beginning in the 1980s. The variability of soil moisture was notably related to the changes in precipitation and temperature, but with different roles. For the global average, precipitation had a dominant effect on the variability of soil moisture at interannual to decadal time scales, but temperature was the main cause of the long-term trend of soil moisture on the whole. The enhanced soil drying in the transitional regions was primarily caused by global warming, which is illustrated by regression analysis and the land surface model.

  11. Climate change underlies global demographic, genetic, and cultural transitions in pre-Columbian southern Peru

    PubMed Central

    Fehren-Schmitz, Lars; Haak, Wolfgang; Mächtle, Bertil; Masch, Florian; Llamas, Bastien; Tomasto Cagigao, Elsa; Sossna, Volker; Schittek, Karsten; Isla Cuadrado, Johny; Eitel, Bernhard; Reindel, Markus

    2014-01-01

    Several archaeological studies in the Central Andes have pointed at the temporal coincidence of climatic fluctuations (both long- and short-term) and episodes of cultural transition and changes of socioeconomic structures throughout the pre-Columbian period. Although most scholars explain the connection between environmental and cultural changes by the impact of climatic alterations on the capacities of the ecosystems inhabited by pre-Columbian cultures, direct evidence for assumed demographic consequences is missing so far. In this study, we address directly the impact of climatic changes on the spatial population dynamics of the Central Andes. We use a large dataset of pre-Columbian mitochondrial DNA sequences from the northern Rio Grande de Nasca drainage (RGND) in southern Peru, dating from ∼840 BC to 1450 AD. Alternative demographic scenarios are tested using Bayesian serial coalescent simulations in an approximate Bayesian computational framework. Our results indicate migrations from the lower coastal valleys of southern Peru into the Andean highlands coincident with increasing climate variability at the end of the Nasca culture at ∼640 AD. We also find support for a back-migration from the highlands to the coast coincident with droughts in the southeastern Andean highlands and improvement of climatic conditions on the coast after the decline of the Wari and Tiwanaku empires (∼1200 AD), leading to a genetic homogenization in the RGND and probably southern Peru as a whole. PMID:24979787

  12. Climate change underlies global demographic, genetic, and cultural transitions in pre-Columbian southern Peru.

    PubMed

    Fehren-Schmitz, Lars; Haak, Wolfgang; Mächtle, Bertil; Masch, Florian; Llamas, Bastien; Cagigao, Elsa Tomasto; Sossna, Volker; Schittek, Karsten; Isla Cuadrado, Johny; Eitel, Bernhard; Reindel, Markus

    2014-07-01

    Several archaeological studies in the Central Andes have pointed at the temporal coincidence of climatic fluctuations (both long- and short-term) and episodes of cultural transition and changes of socioeconomic structures throughout the pre-Columbian period. Although most scholars explain the connection between environmental and cultural changes by the impact of climatic alterations on the capacities of the ecosystems inhabited by pre-Columbian cultures, direct evidence for assumed demographic consequences is missing so far. In this study, we address directly the impact of climatic changes on the spatial population dynamics of the Central Andes. We use a large dataset of pre-Columbian mitochondrial DNA sequences from the northern Rio Grande de Nasca drainage (RGND) in southern Peru, dating from ∼840 BC to 1450 AD. Alternative demographic scenarios are tested using Bayesian serial coalescent simulations in an approximate Bayesian computational framework. Our results indicate migrations from the lower coastal valleys of southern Peru into the Andean highlands coincident with increasing climate variability at the end of the Nasca culture at ∼640 AD. We also find support for a back-migration from the highlands to the coast coincident with droughts in the southeastern Andean highlands and improvement of climatic conditions on the coast after the decline of the Wari and Tiwanaku empires (∼1200 AD), leading to a genetic homogenization in the RGND and probably southern Peru as a whole. PMID:24979787

  13. The abrupt onset of the modern South Asian Monsoon winds

    PubMed Central

    Betzler, Christian; Eberli, Gregor P.; Kroon, Dick; Wright, James D.; Swart, Peter K.; Nath, Bejugam Nagender; Alvarez-Zarikian, Carlos A.; Alonso-García, Montserrat; Bialik, Or M.; Blättler, Clara L.; Guo, Junhua Adam; Haffen, Sébastien; Horozal, Senay; Inoue, Mayuri; Jovane, Luigi; Lanci, Luca; Laya, Juan Carlos; Mee, Anna Ling Hui; Lüdmann, Thomas; Nakakuni, Masatoshi; Niino, Kaoru; Petruny, Loren M.; Pratiwi, Santi D.; Reijmer, John J. G.; Reolid, Jesús; Slagle, Angela L.; Sloss, Craig R.; Su, Xiang; Yao, Zhengquan; Young, Jeremy R.

    2016-01-01

    The South Asian Monson (SAM) is one of the most intense climatic elements yet its initiation and variations are not well established. Dating the deposits of SAM wind-driven currents in IODP cores from the Maldives yields an age of 12. 9 Ma indicating an abrupt SAM onset, over a short period of 300 kyrs. This coincided with the Indian Ocean Oxygen Minimum Zone expansion as revealed by geochemical tracers and the onset of upwelling reflected by the sediment’s content of particulate organic matter. A weaker ‘proto-monsoon’ existed between 12.9 and 25 Ma, as mirrored by the sedimentary signature of dust influx. Abrupt SAM initiation favors a strong influence of climate in addition to the tectonic control, and we propose that the post Miocene Climate Optimum cooling, together with increased continentalization and establishment of the bipolar ocean circulation, i.e. the beginning of the modern world, shifted the monsoon over a threshold towards the modern system. PMID:27436574

  14. The abrupt onset of the modern South Asian Monsoon winds.

    PubMed

    Betzler, Christian; Eberli, Gregor P; Kroon, Dick; Wright, James D; Swart, Peter K; Nath, Bejugam Nagender; Alvarez-Zarikian, Carlos A; Alonso-García, Montserrat; Bialik, Or M; Blättler, Clara L; Guo, Junhua Adam; Haffen, Sébastien; Horozal, Senay; Inoue, Mayuri; Jovane, Luigi; Lanci, Luca; Laya, Juan Carlos; Mee, Anna Ling Hui; Lüdmann, Thomas; Nakakuni, Masatoshi; Niino, Kaoru; Petruny, Loren M; Pratiwi, Santi D; Reijmer, John J G; Reolid, Jesús; Slagle, Angela L; Sloss, Craig R; Su, Xiang; Yao, Zhengquan; Young, Jeremy R

    2016-01-01

    The South Asian Monson (SAM) is one of the most intense climatic elements yet its initiation and variations are not well established. Dating the deposits of SAM wind-driven currents in IODP cores from the Maldives yields an age of 12. 9 Ma indicating an abrupt SAM onset, over a short period of 300 kyrs. This coincided with the Indian Ocean Oxygen Minimum Zone expansion as revealed by geochemical tracers and the onset of upwelling reflected by the sediment's content of particulate organic matter. A weaker 'proto-monsoon' existed between 12.9 and 25 Ma, as mirrored by the sedimentary signature of dust influx. Abrupt SAM initiation favors a strong influence of climate in addition to the tectonic control, and we propose that the post Miocene Climate Optimum cooling, together with increased continentalization and establishment of the bipolar ocean circulation, i.e. the beginning of the modern world, shifted the monsoon over a threshold towards the modern system. PMID:27436574

  15. The abrupt onset of the modern South Asian Monsoon winds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Betzler, Christian; Eberli, Gregor P.; Kroon, Dick; Wright, James D.; Swart, Peter K.; Nath, Bejugam Nagender; Alvarez-Zarikian, Carlos A.; Alonso-García, Montserrat; Bialik, Or M.; Blättler, Clara L.; Guo, Junhua Adam; Haffen, Sébastien; Horozal, Senay; Inoue, Mayuri; Jovane, Luigi; Lanci, Luca; Laya, Juan Carlos; Mee, Anna Ling Hui; Lüdmann, Thomas; Nakakuni, Masatoshi; Niino, Kaoru; Petruny, Loren M.; Pratiwi, Santi D.; Reijmer, John J. G.; Reolid, Jesús; Slagle, Angela L.; Sloss, Craig R.; Su, Xiang; Yao, Zhengquan; Young, Jeremy R.

    2016-07-01

    The South Asian Monson (SAM) is one of the most intense climatic elements yet its initiation and variations are not well established. Dating the deposits of SAM wind-driven currents in IODP cores from the Maldives yields an age of 12. 9 Ma indicating an abrupt SAM onset, over a short period of 300 kyrs. This coincided with the Indian Ocean Oxygen Minimum Zone expansion as revealed by geochemical tracers and the onset of upwelling reflected by the sediment’s content of particulate organic matter. A weaker ‘proto-monsoon’ existed between 12.9 and 25 Ma, as mirrored by the sedimentary signature of dust influx. Abrupt SAM initiation favors a strong influence of climate in addition to the tectonic control, and we propose that the post Miocene Climate Optimum cooling, together with increased continentalization and establishment of the bipolar ocean circulation, i.e. the beginning of the modern world, shifted the monsoon over a threshold towards the modern system.

  16. Rapid climate change did not cause population collapse at the end of the European Bronze Age

    PubMed Central

    Armit, Ian; Swindles, Graeme T.; Becker, Katharina; Plunkett, Gill; Blaauw, Maarten

    2014-01-01

    The impact of rapid climate change on contemporary human populations is of global concern. To contextualize our understanding of human responses to rapid climate change it is necessary to examine the archeological record during past climate transitions. One episode of abrupt climate change has been correlated with societal collapse at the end of the northwestern European Bronze Age. We apply new methods to interrogate archeological and paleoclimate data for this transition in Ireland at a higher level of precision than has previously been possible. We analyze archeological 14C dates to demonstrate dramatic population collapse and present high-precision proxy climate data, analyzed through Bayesian methods, to provide evidence for a rapid climatic transition at ca. 750 calibrated years B.C. Our results demonstrate that this climatic downturn did not initiate population collapse and highlight the nondeterministic nature of human responses to past climate change. PMID:25404290

  17. Rapid climate change did not cause population collapse at the end of the European Bronze Age.

    PubMed

    Armit, Ian; Swindles, Graeme T; Becker, Katharina; Plunkett, Gill; Blaauw, Maarten

    2014-12-01

    The impact of rapid climate change on contemporary human populations is of global concern. To contextualize our understanding of human responses to rapid climate change it is necessary to examine the archeological record during past climate transitions. One episode of abrupt climate change has been correlated with societal collapse at the end of the northwestern European Bronze Age. We apply new methods to interrogate archeological and paleoclimate data for this transition in Ireland at a higher level of precision than has previously been possible. We analyze archeological (14)C dates to demonstrate dramatic population collapse and present high-precision proxy climate data, analyzed through Bayesian methods, to provide evidence for a rapid climatic transition at ca. 750 calibrated years B.C. Our results demonstrate that this climatic downturn did not initiate population collapse and highlight the nondeterministic nature of human responses to past climate change. PMID:25404290

  18. New evidence from the South China Sea for an abrupt termination of the last glacial period

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Broecker, W. S.; Klas, M.; Andree, M.; Bonani, G.; Wolfli, W.

    1988-01-01

    Results demonstrating an abrupt change in the rate and character of sedimentation in the South China Sea at the close of the last glacial period are presented. Radiocarbon dating and its position in the oxygen isotope shift suggest that this change may be coincident with the abrupt change in climatic conditions seen at high latitudes in the North Atlantic and the Antarctic at 13 kyr BP. These results support the contention that a major global climatic change occurred between 14 and 13 kyr BP.

  19. Plio-Pleistocene climatic transition and the lifting of the Teton Range, Wyoming

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Leopold, E.B.; Liu, Gaisheng; Love, J.D.; Love, D.W.

    2007-01-01

    Fine-grained lacustrine, riverine and ash-fall sediments of the Shooting Iron Formation, whose late Pliocene age is established by Blancan gastropods and vertebrates, yield a pollen flora that is essentially similar in composition to the modern pollen rain in the Jackson Hole area. The Pliocene assemblage suggests a climate like that of the Jackson valley and foothills today. These spectra also resemble a Pliocene pollen flora from Yellowstone Park dated at ??? 2.02??Ma. However, the underlying Miocene Teewinot sediments differ by containing pollen of four exotic deciduous hardwoods (Tertiary relicts) that suggest a summer-moist climate, unlike that of today. The Shooting Iron sediments lie with an angular unconformity on and above the Miocene lake sediments of the Teewinot Formation. Both of these deposits probably preceded the main uplift of the Teton Range based on the absence of Precambrian clasts in the Tertiary valley deposits. Because the Pliocene floras were modern in aspect, a Plio-Pleistocene transition would be floristically imperceptible here. The sequence denotes a protracted period of relative stability of climate during Teewinot time, and a shift in vegetational state (summer-wet trees drop out) sometime between the latest Miocene and latest Pliocene. The Pliocene spectra suggest a dry, cooler climate toward the end of Shooting Iron time. ?? 2006 University of Washington.

  20. Abrupt termination of Marine Isotope Stage 16 (Termination VII) at 631.5 ka in Santa Barbara Basin, California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dean, Walter E.; Kennett, James P.; Behl, Richard J.; Nicholson, Craig; Sorlien, Christopher C.

    2015-10-01

    The Marine Isotope Stage 16-15 boundary (Termination VII) is the first deglacial warming step of the late Quaternary following the mid-Pleistocene transition (MPT), when 41 kyr climatic cycles shifted to strong 100 kyr cycles. The detailed structure of this important climatic event has remained unknown until now. Core MV0508-19JPC from Santa Barbara Basin, California, contains a decadal-scale climatic and geochemical sediment record of 4000 years duration that includes the early part of this deglacial episode. This record reveals that the climatic shift during the early deglacial occurred rapidly (<700 years), in a progression of three abrupt warming steps. The onset of Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 15 was remarkably abrupt with 4-5°C sea surface warming in ~50 years. The deglacial sequence contains the well-dated Lava Creek tephra (631.3 ± 4 ka) from Yellowstone Caldera used to date the onset of Termination VII at 631.5 ka. The late MIS 16 and early MIS 15 interval exhibits multiple decadal-scale negative excursions in δ13C of planktic foraminifera, likely the result of repeated discharges of methane from methane hydrates associated with both ocean warming and low sea level. A warm interstadial that interrupts late MIS 16 is marked by elevated concentrations of redox-sensitive elements indicating sulfidic, oxygen-deficient bottom and pore-waters, and elevated concentrations of total organic carbon and Cd, reflecting increased surface productivity. Unlike younger sediments on the California margin, these indicators of increased productivity and low dissolved oxygen do not consistently correspond with each other or with preserved laminations, possibly reflecting instability of a still evolving ocean-atmosphere system following the MPT.

  1. Prediction of fetal acidemia in placental abruption

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background To determine the major predictive factors for fetal acidemia in placental abruption. Methods A retrospective review of pregnancies with placental abruption was performed using a logistic regression model. Fetal acidemia was defined as a pH of less than 7.0 in umbilical artery. The severe abruption score, which was derived from a linear discriminant function, was calculated to determine the probability of fetal acidemia. Results Fetal acidemia was seen in 43 survivors (43/222, 19%). A logistic regression model showed bradycardia (OR (odds ratio) 50.34, 95% CI 11.07 – 228.93), and late decelerations (OR 15.13, 3.05 – 74.97), but not abnormal ultrasonographic findings were to be associated with the occurrence of fetal acidemia. The severe abruption score was calculated for the occurrence of fetal acidemia, using 6 items including vaginal bleeding, gestational age, abdominal pain, abnormal ultrasonographic finding, late decelerations, and bradycardia. Conclusions An abnormal FHR pattern, especially bradycardia is the most significant risk factor in placental abruption predicting fetal acidemia, regardless of the presence of abnormal ultrasonographic findings or gestational age. PMID:23915223

  2. Effects of Atlantic warm pool variability over climate of South America tropical transition zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ricaurte Villota, Constanza; Romero-Rodríguez, Deisy; Andrés Ordoñez-Zuñiga, Silvio; Murcia-Riaño, Magnolia; Coca-Domínguez, Oswaldo

    2016-04-01

    Colombia is located in the northwestern corner of South America in a climatically complex region due to the influence processes modulators of climate both the Pacific and Atlantic region, becoming in a transition zone between phenomena of northern and southern hemisphere. Variations in the climatic conditions of this region, especially rainfall, have been attributed to the influence of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but little is known about the interaction within Atlantic Ocean and specifically Caribbean Sea with the environmental conditions of this region. In this work We studied the influence of the Atlantic Warm Pool (AWP) on the Colombian Caribbean (CC) climate using data of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) between 1900 - 2014 from ERSST V4, compared with in situ data SIMAC (National System for Coral Reef Monitoring in Colombia - INVEMAR), rainfall between 1953-2013 of meteorological stations located at main airports in the Colombian Caribbean zone, administered by IDEAM, and winds data between 2003 - 2014 from WindSat sensor. The parameters analyzed showed spatial differences throughout the study area. SST anomalies, representing the variability of the AWP, showed to be associated with Multidecadal Atlantic Oscillation (AMO) and with the index of sea surface temperature of the North-tropical Atlantic (NTA), the variations was on 3 to 5 years on the ENSO scale and of approximately 11 years possibly related to solar cycles. Rainfall anomalies in the central and northern CC respond to changes in SST, while in the south zone these are not fully engage and show a high relationship with the ENSO. Finally, the winds also respond to changes in SST and showed a signal approximately 90 days possibly related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation, whose intensity depends on the CC region being analyzed. The results confirm that region is a transition zone in which operate several forcing, the variability of climate conditions is difficult to attribute only one, as ENSO

  3. Cooling Induced Instability of the Atlantic Overturning Circulation as a Cause for Rapid Climate Transitions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knorr, G.; Lohmann, G.; Prange, M.; Barker, S.; Laepple, T.

    2009-04-01

    Although there is considerable debate about differences between the modern and the glacial Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) it is commonly agreed that at peak glacial times the AMOC was characterised by a southward shift of the North Atlantic deep water (NADW) formation sites and a relatively shallow NADW-cell. Recently the Paleoclimate Modelling Inter-comparison Project (PMIP) has shown that state of the art coupled atmosphere-ocean circulation models can successfully reproduce such changes. Interestingly, the AMOC response to glacial conditions in the PMIP has revealed that a southward shift of the downward branch and a shoaling of the NADW overturning cell is accompanied by a reduced overturning. Here we present a conceptual approach using an interhemipheric box model of the Atlantic overturning circulation. We assume that a completely sea ice covered North Atlantic box would inhibit the formation of NADW by its insulating effect of surface heat fluxes at the ocean surface. Therefore we introduce a dependence of the overturning strength from the sea ice extent in the North Atlantic. This approach can be viewed as a loss of efficiency of the inter-hemispheric density gradient in driving the overturning with cooler climate conditions. Using this concept we show that the transition from a modern climate state to a colder climate forces the system into millennial-scale oscillations at a threshold. The oscillations are activated by a southward migration of the sea-ice cover in the North Atlantic. The southward migration of the sea ice margin also provides a positive feedback on a weakening of the overturning by climate cooling, which leads to the existence of multiple equilibria in an intermediate climate state. The stability behaviour in our model suggests that changes in the North Atlantic sea-ice cover may have played a dominant role for Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillations by determining the available surface area for deep water formation and the

  4. An abrupt weakening of the subpolar gyre as trigger of Little Ice Age-type episodes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moreno-Chamarro, Eduardo; Zanchettin, Davide; Lohmann, Katja; Jungclaus, Johann H.

    2016-04-01

    We investigate the mechanism of a decadal-scale weakening shift in the strength of the subpolar gyre (SPG) that is found in one among three last millennium simulations with a state-of-the-art Earth system model. The SPG shift triggers multicentennial anomalies in the North Atlantic climate driven by long-lasting internal feedbacks relating anomalous oceanic and atmospheric circulation, sea ice extent, and upper-ocean salinity in the Labrador Sea. Yet changes throughout or after the shift are not associated with a persistent weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation or shifts in the North Atlantic Oscillation. The anomalous climate state of the North Atlantic simulated after the shift agrees well with climate reconstructions from within the area, which describe a transition between a stronger and weaker SPG during the relatively warm medieval climate and the cold Little Ice Age respectively. However, model and data differ in the timing of the onset. The simulated SPG shift is caused by a rapid increase in the freshwater export from the Arctic and associated freshening in the upper Labrador Sea. Such freshwater anomaly relates to prominent thickening of the Arctic sea ice, following the cluster of relatively small-magnitude volcanic eruptions by 1600 CE. Sensitivity experiments without volcanic forcing can nonetheless produce similar abrupt events; a necessary causal link between the volcanic cluster and the SPG shift can therefore be excluded. Instead, preconditioning by internal variability explains discrepancies in the timing between the simulated SPG shift and the reconstructed estimates for the Little Ice Age onset.

  5. Indications for control of the Iceland plume on the Eocene-Oligocene "greenhouse-icehouse" climate transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abelson, M.; Agnon, A.; Almogi-Labin, A.

    2009-12-01

    The Eocene/Oligocene boundary, at about 33.5 Myr ago, marks the transition from ‘greenhouse-’ to ‘icehouse-world', accompanied by a sudden cooling of ocean bottom-water. We show that this global event is simultaneous with a deep rooted mantle process: an abrupt suppression of the Iceland plume triggered rapid deepening of the Greenland-Scotland Ridge (GSR) - the sill moderating deep circulation between the Nordic seas and North Atlantic. Striking coincidence of several sets of events reflects the abrupt suppression of the Iceland plume and a rapid removal of its influence on the nearby Reykjanes Ridge (RR): 1) A sudden segmentation of the paleo-RR seen on seafloor magnetic anomalies, 2) a drop in spreading rate of the North Atlantic, 3) a transition from thick to normal oceanic crust, and 4) a rapid deepening and accelerated subsidence of the GSR, inferred from the sedimentary record of DSDP site 336. The plume suppression and the concomitant GSR deepening coincide with the initiation of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) at the Eocene/Oligocene (E/O) transition, attested by onset of drift sedimentation in the Faeroe-Shetland Channel (FSC), the deepest spill-point on the GSR, and in the North Atlantic, the Feni Drift. These processes have influenced global deepwater composition and temperature as indicated by the striking correlation with the jump in global δ18O (>1‰) measured on benthic foraminifers that reflects the E/O global cooling, and with enrichment of unradiogenic Nd isotopes in the southeastern Atlantic and Southern Ocean. The initiation of Atlantic thermohaline circulation at that time is inferred from the abrupt split between planktonic and benthic δ18O, indicating the building of ocean water stratification. This scenario is further corroborated by a reversal in benthic δ18O at the late Oligocene, coincident with the renewal of vigorous Iceland plume some 25 Myr ago, causing a considerable retardation in NADW fluxes. The plume renewal is

  6. Indications for control of the Iceland plume on the Eocene Oligocene “greenhouse icehouse” climate transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abelson, Meir; Agnon, Amotz; Almogi-Labin, Ahuva

    2008-01-01

    The Eocene/Oligocene boundary, at about 33.5 Myr ago, marks the transition from 'greenhouse-' to 'icehouse-world', accompanied by a sudden cooling of ocean bottom-water. We show that this global event is simultaneous with a deep rooted mantle process: an abrupt suppression of the Iceland plume triggered rapid deepening of the Greenland-Scotland Ridge (GSR) — the sill moderating deep circulation between the Nordic seas and North Atlantic. Striking coincidence of several sets of events reflects the abrupt suppression of the Iceland plume and a rapid removal of its influence on the nearby Reykjanes Ridge (RR): 1) A sudden segmentation of the paleo-RR seen on seafloor magnetic anomalies, 2) a drop in spreading rate of the North Atlantic, 3) a transition from thick to normal oceanic crust, and 4) a rapid deepening and accelerated subsidence of the GSR, inferred from the sedimentary record of DSDP site 336. The plume suppression and the concomitant GSR deepening coincide with the initiation of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) at the Eocene/Oligocene (E/O) transition, attested by onset of drift sedimentation in the Faroe-Shetland Channel (FSC), the deepest spill-point on the GSR, and in the North Atlantic, the Feni Drift. These processes have influenced global deepwater composition and temperature as indicated by the striking correlation with the jump in global δ18O (> 1‰) measured on benthic foraminifers that reflects the E/O global cooling, and with enrichment of unradiogenic Nd isotopes in the southeastern Atlantic and Southern Ocean. The initiation of Atlantic thermohaline circulation at that time is inferred from the abrupt split between planktonic and benthic δ18O, indicating the building of ocean-water stratification. This scenario is further corroborated by a reversal in benthic δ18O at the late Oligocene, coincident with the renewal of vigorous Iceland plume some 25 Myr ago, causing a considerable retardation in NADW fluxes. The plume renewal is inferred

  7. Arctic Spring Transition in Warming Climate: A Study Using Reanalysis Dataset

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De, B.; Zhang, X.

    2014-12-01

    An increased warming trend over the Arctic in recent years has been documented using observations, and is expected to continue by climate model projections. This increase may shift the springtime transition time, resulting in a longer sea-ice melt and vegetation growing period over the Arctic. In this study, we investigated variability of and changes in the spring transition in a warming climate and examined attributions of various dynamic and thermodynamic processes. The results demonstrate a dramatic increase in springtime surface air temperature (SAT) over the Arctic since 1979. Physical analysis reveals the importance of large-scale poleward moisture and energy advection accompanied by an enhancement in net downward radiation flux, which result in the surface warming. The cloudiness could impact the surface radiation budget and retreat of sea ice cover reduces surface albedo, making an additional contribution to the surface warming. In addition to the overall evaluation of these physical processes, composite analysis suggests that relative contributions from these processes to the increased springtime SAT vary across different geographic sub-regions.

  8. Changing climatic response: a conceptual model for glacial cycles and the Mid-Pleistocene Transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Daruka, I.; Ditlevsen, P. D.

    2014-03-01

    Milankovitch's astronomical theory of glacial cycles, attributing ice age climate oscillations to orbital changes in Northern Northern-Hemisphere insolation, is challenged by the paleoclimatic record. The climatic response to the variations in insolation is far from trivial. In general the glacial cycles are highly asymmetric in time, with slow cooling from the interglacials to the glacials (inceptions) and very rapid warming from the glacials to the interglacials (terminations). We shall refer to this fast-slow dynamics as the "saw-tooth" shape of the paleoclimatic record. This is non-linearly related to the time-symmetric variations in the orbital forcing. However, the most pronounced challenge to the Milankovitch theory is the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT) occurring about one million years ago. During that event, the prevailing 41 kyr glacial cycles, corresponding to the almost harmonic obliquity cycle were replaced by longer saw-tooth shaped cycles with a time scale around 100 kyr. The MPT must have been driven by internal changes in climate response, since it does not correspond to any apparent changes in the orbital forcing. In order to identify possible mechanisms causing the observed changes in glacial dynamics, it is relevant to study simplified models with the capability of generating temporal behavior similar to the observed records. We present a simple oscillator type model approach, with two variables, a temperature anomaly and an ice volume analogous, climatic memory term. The generalization of the ice albedo feedback is included in terms of an effective multiplicative coupling between this latter climatic memory term (representing the internal degrees of freedom) and the external drive. The simple model reproduces the temporal asymmetry of the late Pleistocene glacial cycles and suggests that the MPT can be explained as a regime shift, aided by climatic noise, from a period 1 frequency locking to the obliquity cycle to a period 2-3 frequency

  9. Detection of abrupt changes in dynamic systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Willsky, A. S.

    1984-01-01

    Some of the basic ideas associated with the detection of abrupt changes in dynamic systems are presented. Multiple filter-based techniques and residual-based method and the multiple model and generalized likelihood ratio methods are considered. Issues such as the effect of unknown onset time on algorithm complexity and structure and robustness to model uncertainty are discussed.

  10. Climate change causing phase transitions of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) recruitment dynamics.

    PubMed

    Ciannelli, Lorenzo; Bailey, Kevin M; Chan, Kung-Sik; Belgrano, Andrea; Stenseth, Nils Chr

    2005-08-22

    In 1976 the North Pacific climate shifted, resulting in an average increase of the water temperature. In the Gulf of Alaska the climate shift was followed (i.e. early 1980s) by a gradual but dramatic increase in the abundance of groundfish species that typically prey on pre-recruitment stages of walleye pollock. In the present study we used a previously parameterized model to investigate the effect of these climate and biological changes on the recruitment dynamics of walleye pollock in the Gulf of Alaska. Simulations covered the 1970-2000 time frame and emphasized the medium-to-long temporal scale (i.e. about 5-10 years) of environmental variability. Results showed that during periods characterized by high sea surface temperature and high predation on juvenile pollock stages, recruitment variability and magnitude were below average, and recruitment control was delayed to stages older than the 0-group. Opposite dynamics (i.e. high abundance and variability, and early recruitment control) occurred during periods characterized by low temperature and predation. These results are in general agreement with empirical observations, and allowed us to formulate causal explanations for their occurrence. We interpreted the delay of recruitment control and the reduction of variability as an effect of increased constraint on the abundance of post age-0 stages, in turn imposed by high density dependence and predation mortality. On the other hand, low density-dependence and predation favoured post age-0 survival, and allowed for an unconstrained link between larval and recruitment abundance. Our findings demonstrate that the dominant mechanisms of pollock survival change over contrasting climate regimes. Such changes may in turn cause a phase transition of recruitment dynamics with profound implications for the management of the entire stock. PMID:16087430

  11. Climatic and palaeoecological changes during the mid- to Late Holocene transition in eastern China: high-resolution pollen and non-pollen palynomorph analysis at Pingwang, Yangtze coastal lowlands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Innes, James B.; Zong, Yongqiang; Wang, Zhanghua; Chen, Zhongyuan

    2014-09-01

    The transition to the Late Holocene/Neoglacial occurred as a worldwide process of climatic deterioration from the optimum thermal conditions of the mid-Holocene, culminating in an abrupt decline around 4200 cal yr ago, in a period of severe climatic deterioration that lasted for two or three centuries. This sudden climatic event has been recorded in many proxy data archives from around the world, and its effects were manifest in different ways depending on the reaction of regional weather systems and conditions, but often as greatly increased aridity and/or cold temperatures. It has been regarded as causing or contributing to the sudden collapse of several well-established human societies at that time, including advanced agricultural Late Neolithic cultures in eastern China. We have used high-resolution pollen and non-pollen palynomorph analysis to examine the nature of this climatic transition through its impacts on the vegetation and hydrology at Pingwang, a site in the Yangtze coastal lowlands which has no evidence of complicating environmental influences such as sea-level rise or significant human land-use activity, factors previously suggested as alternative reasons for changes in forest composition. Our results show two phases of forest alteration, one gradual from about 5500 cal BP and one sudden at about 4200 cal BP., in which the frequencies of subtropical forest elements fall and are replaced by those of conifers and cold-tolerant trees. Total arboreal pollen frequencies do not decline and the proportion of temperate forest trees, tolerant of a wide range of temperatures, remains unchanged throughout, both ruling out human land clearance as a cause of the change in forest composition. As these dates accord very well with the known timings of climate deterioration established from other proxy archives in the region, we conclude that climate was the main driver of vegetation change in eastern China at the mid- to Late Holocene transition. Our hydrological

  12. Abrupt release of terrigenous organic carbon to the Laptev Sea at termination of the Younger Dryas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tesi, T.; Muschitiello, F.; Smittenberg, R.; Jakobsson, M.; Vonk, J.; Hill, P.; Dudarev, O.; Semiletov, I. P.; Kirchner, N.; Noormets, R.; Andersson, A.; Gustafsson, O.

    2015-12-01

    Based on analysis of a piston core collected in 2014 from the Lena River paleo delta, now Laptev Sea, we show that rapid and massive organic carbon (OC) deposition took place into the marine system at the termination of the Younger Dryas when the Arctic region experienced a large and extremely fast climate change. The highly laminated strata with absence of bioturbation further confirm the rapid event-driven emplacement of this deposit which was largely dominated by terrigenous OC as indicated by depleted δ13C values and high concentrations of terrestrial fossil biomarkers (lignin phenols and cutin-derived products). Moreover, the hydrogen isotopic composition (δ2H) of HMW n-alkanes indicates that this terrestrially-derived translocated OC was produced in the watershed during a relatively cold period. The OC appears to be a few thousand years old at time of deposition (ca. 4-5000 radiocarbon years; reservoir age corrected), consistent with the radiocarbon age of pre-aged OC currently supplied by the Lena river. Altogether our results indicate that fast climate warming exerts first-order control on large-scale carbon redistribution. Because the Younger Dryas-Preboreal transition occurred within a few decades, we infer that the abrupt and large release of terrigenous OC was essentially driven by rapid changes in the permafrost stability (i.e., thermal collapse/thawing) and increase in precipitation over the Siberian watershed. Interestingly, only surface and sub-surface carbon pools (i.e., active layer) were remobilized while deep and old sources (radiocarbon dead) did not seem to have substantially contributed to the total land-to-ocean flux during the Younger Dryas-Preboreal transition.

  13. The Arctic Holocene Transitions Proxy Climate Database — Principal Millennial-Scale Patterns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaufman, D. S.; McKay, N.

    2014-12-01

    The Arctic Holocene Transitions (AHT) Project is a community-based, PAGES-endorsed effort to investigate centennial-scale variability in the Arctic climate system during the Holocene, and to understand the feedbacks that lead to pronounced changes. The AHT project recently released a major database of Arctic Holocene proxy climate records (Clim. Past-Disc. 10:1). The systematic review of marine and terrestrial proxy climate time series is based on quantitative screening criteria with new approaches for assessing the geochronological accuracy of age models and for characterizing the climate variables represented by the proxies. Records from only 39% of the sites could be found in the primary paleoclimate data repositories, underscoring the importance of such community-based efforts to assembling a comprehensive product. The database authors, including representatives from six Arctic regions, considered published records from nearly 500 sites. Of these, time series from 170 sites met the criteria for inclusion in the database. Namely, the records are located north of 58°N, extend back at least to 6 cal ka (84% extend back > 8 ka), are resolved at sub-millennial scale (at least one value every 400 ± 200 yr) and have age models constrained by at least one age every 3000 yr. The database contains proxy records from lake sediment (60%), marine sediment (32%), glacier ice (5%), and other sources. Most (60%) reflect temperature (mainly summer warmth) and are primarily based on pollen, chironomid or diatom assemblages. Many (15%) reflect some aspect of hydroclimate as inferred from stable isotopes, pollen assemblages, and other indicators. Principal component (PC) analyses indicates that the predominant pattern of change in temperature-sensitive time series is a ramp between 5 and 3 ka that separates millennial-long intervals of less-pronounced change. This shift corresponds to cooling at most sites, but a substantial fraction of sites warm across this transition. Between

  14. Surface energy exchanges along a tundra-forest transition and feedbacks to climate

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Beringer, J.; Chapin, F. S., III; Thompson, Catharine Copass; McGuire, A.D.

    2005-01-01

    Surface energy exchanges were measured in a sequence of five sites representing the major vegetation types in the transition from arctic tundra to forest. This is the major transition in vegetation structure in northern high latitudes. We examined the influence of vegetation structure on the rates of sensible heating and evapotranspiration to assess the potential feedbacks to climate if high-latitude warming were to change the distribution of these vegetation types. Measurements were made at Council on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska, at representative tundra, low shrub, tall shrub, woodland (treeline), and boreal forest sites. Structural differences across the transition from tundra to forest included an increase in the leaf area index (LAI) from 0.52 to 2.76, an increase in canopy height from 0.1 to 6.1 m, and a general increase in canopy complexity. These changes in vegetation structure resulted in a decrease in albedo from 0.19 to 0.10 as well as changes to the partitioning of energy at the surface. Bulk surface resistance to water vapor flux remained virtually constant across sites, apparently because the combined soil and moss evaporation decreased while transpiration increased along the transect from tundra to forest. In general, sites became relatively warmer and drier along the transect with the convective fluxes being increasingly dominated by sensible heating, as evident by an increasing Bowen ratio from 0.94 to 1.22. The difference in growing season average daily sensible heating between tundra and forest was 21 W m-2. Fluxes changed non-linearly along the transition, with both shrubs and trees substantially enhancing heat transfer to the atmosphere. These changes in vegetation structure that increase sensible heating could feed back to enhance warming at local to regional scales. The magnitude of these vegetation effects on potential high-latitude warming is two to three times greater than suggested by previous modeling studies. ?? 2005 Elsevier B.V. All

  15. Ocean Drilling Program Records of the Last Five Million Years: A View of the Ocean and Climate System During a Warm Period and a Major Climate Transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ravelo, A. C.

    2003-12-01

    The warm Pliocene (4.7 to 3.0 Ma), the most recent period in Earth's history when global equilibrium climate was warmer than today, provides the opportunity to understand what role the components of the climate system that have a long timescale of response (cryosphere and ocean) play in determining globally warm conditions, and in forcing the major global climate cooling after 3.0 Ma. Because sediments of this age are well preserved in many locations in the world's oceans, we can potentially study this warm period in detail. One major accomplishment of the Ocean Drilling Program is the recovery of long continuous sediment sequences from all ocean basins that span the last 5.0 Ma. Dozens of paleoceanographers have generated climate records from these sediments. I will present a synthesis of these data to provide a global picture of the Pliocene warm period, the transition to the cold Pleistocene period, and changes in climate sensitivity related to this transition. In the Pliocene warm period, tropical sea surface temperature (SST) and global climate patterns suggest average conditions that resemble modern El Ni¤os, and deep ocean reconstructions indicate enhanced thermohaline overturning and reduced density and nutrient stratification. The data indicate that the warm conditions were not related to tectonic changes in ocean basin shape compared to today, rather they reflect the long term adjustment of the climate system to stronger than modern radiative forcing. The warm Pliocene to cold Pleistocene transition provides an opportunity to study the feedbacks of various components of the climate system. The marked onset of significant Northern hemisphere glaciation (NHG) at 2.75 Ma occurred in concert with a reduction in deep ocean ventilation, but cooling in subtropical and tropical regions was more gradual until Walker circulation was established in a major step at 2.0 Ma. Thus, regional high latitude ice albedo feedbacks, rather than low latitude processes, must

  16. Climatic and landscape controls on water transit times and silicate mineral weathering in the critical zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zapata-Rios, Xavier; McIntosh, Jennifer; Rademacher, Laura; Troch, Peter A.; Brooks, Paul D.; Rasmussen, Craig; Chorover, Jon

    2015-08-01

    The critical zone (CZ) can be conceptualized as an open system reactor that is continually transforming energy and water fluxes into an internal structural organization and dissipative products. In this study, we test a controlling factor on water transit times (WTT) and mineral weathering called Effective Energy and Mass Transfer (EEMT). We hypothesize that EEMT, quantified based on local climatic variables, can effectively predict WTT within—and mineral weathering products from—the CZ. This study tests whether EEMT or static landscape characteristics are good predictors of WTT, aqueous phase solutes, and silicate weathering products. Our study site is located around Redondo Peak, a rhyolitic volcanic resurgent dome, in northern New Mexico. At Redondo Peak, springs drain slopes along an energy gradient created by differences in terrain aspect. This investigation uses major solute concentrations, the calculated mineral mass undergoing dissolution, and the age tracer tritium and relates them quantitatively to EEMT and landscape characteristics. We found significant correlations between EEMT, WTT, and mineral weathering products. Significant correlations were observed between dissolved weathering products (Na+ and DIC), 3H concentrations, and maximum EEMT. In contrast, landscape characteristics such as contributing area of spring, slope gradient, elevation, and flow path length were not as effective predictive variables of WTT, solute concentrations, and mineral weathering products. These results highlight the interrelationship between landscape, hydrological, and biogeochemical processes and suggest that basic climatic data embodied in EEMT can be used to scale hydrological and hydrochemical responses in other sites.

  17. Mid-Pleistocene climate transition drives net mass loss from rapidly uplifting St. Elias Mountains, Alaska.

    PubMed

    Gulick, Sean P S; Jaeger, John M; Mix, Alan C; Asahi, Hirofumi; Bahlburg, Heinrich; Belanger, Christina L; Berbel, Glaucia B B; Childress, Laurel; Cowan, Ellen; Drab, Laureen; Forwick, Matthias; Fukumura, Akemi; Ge, Shulan; Gupta, Shyam; Kioka, Arata; Konno, Susumu; LeVay, Leah J; März, Christian; Matsuzaki, Kenji M; McClymont, Erin L; Moy, Chris; Müller, Juliane; Nakamura, Atsunori; Ojima, Takanori; Ribeiro, Fabiana R; Ridgway, Kenneth D; Romero, Oscar E; Slagle, Angela L; Stoner, Joseph S; St-Onge, Guillaume; Suto, Itsuki; Walczak, Maureen D; Worthington, Lindsay L; Bailey, Ian; Enkelmann, Eva; Reece, Robert; Swartz, John M

    2015-12-01

    Erosion, sediment production, and routing on a tectonically active continental margin reflect both tectonic and climatic processes; partitioning the relative importance of these processes remains controversial. Gulf of Alaska contains a preserved sedimentary record of the Yakutat Terrane collision with North America. Because tectonic convergence in the coastal St. Elias orogen has been roughly constant for 6 My, variations in its eroded sediments preserved in the offshore Surveyor Fan constrain a budget of tectonic material influx, erosion, and sediment output. Seismically imaged sediment volumes calibrated with chronologies derived from Integrated Ocean Drilling Program boreholes show that erosion accelerated in response to Northern Hemisphere glacial intensification (∼ 2.7 Ma) and that the 900-km-long Surveyor Channel inception appears to correlate with this event. However, tectonic influx exceeded integrated sediment efflux over the interval 2.8-1.2 Ma. Volumetric erosion accelerated following the onset of quasi-periodic (∼ 100-ky) glacial cycles in the mid-Pleistocene climate transition (1.2-0.7 Ma). Since then, erosion and transport of material out of the orogen has outpaced tectonic influx by 50-80%. Such a rapid net mass loss explains apparent increases in exhumation rates inferred onshore from exposure dates and mapped out-of-sequence fault patterns. The 1.2-My mass budget imbalance must relax back toward equilibrium in balance with tectonic influx over the timescale of orogenic wedge response (millions of years). The St. Elias Range provides a key example of how active orogenic systems respond to transient mass fluxes, and of the possible influence of climate-driven erosive processes that diverge from equilibrium on the million-year scale. PMID:26598689

  18. Mid-Pleistocene climate transition drives net mass loss from rapidly uplifting St. Elias Mountains, Alaska

    PubMed Central

    Jaeger, John M.; Mix, Alan C.; Asahi, Hirofumi; Bahlburg, Heinrich; Belanger, Christina L.; Berbel, Glaucia B. B.; Childress, Laurel; Cowan, Ellen; Drab, Laureen; Forwick, Matthias; Fukumura, Akemi; Ge, Shulan; Gupta, Shyam; Konno, Susumu; LeVay, Leah J.; März, Christian; McClymont, Erin L.; Moy, Chris; Müller, Juliane; Nakamura, Atsunori; Ojima, Takanori; Ribeiro, Fabiana R.; Ridgway, Kenneth D.; Romero, Oscar E.; Slagle, Angela L.; Stoner, Joseph S.; St-Onge, Guillaume; Suto, Itsuki; Walczak, Maureen D.; Worthington, Lindsay L.; Bailey, Ian; Enkelmann, Eva; Reece, Robert; Swartz, John M.

    2015-01-01

    Erosion, sediment production, and routing on a tectonically active continental margin reflect both tectonic and climatic processes; partitioning the relative importance of these processes remains controversial. Gulf of Alaska contains a preserved sedimentary record of the Yakutat Terrane collision with North America. Because tectonic convergence in the coastal St. Elias orogen has been roughly constant for 6 My, variations in its eroded sediments preserved in the offshore Surveyor Fan constrain a budget of tectonic material influx, erosion, and sediment output. Seismically imaged sediment volumes calibrated with chronologies derived from Integrated Ocean Drilling Program boreholes show that erosion accelerated in response to Northern Hemisphere glacial intensification (∼2.7 Ma) and that the 900-km-long Surveyor Channel inception appears to correlate with this event. However, tectonic influx exceeded integrated sediment efflux over the interval 2.8–1.2 Ma. Volumetric erosion accelerated following the onset of quasi-periodic (∼100-ky) glacial cycles in the mid-Pleistocene climate transition (1.2–0.7 Ma). Since then, erosion and transport of material out of the orogen has outpaced tectonic influx by 50–80%. Such a rapid net mass loss explains apparent increases in exhumation rates inferred onshore from exposure dates and mapped out-of-sequence fault patterns. The 1.2-My mass budget imbalance must relax back toward equilibrium in balance with tectonic influx over the timescale of orogenic wedge response (millions of years). The St. Elias Range provides a key example of how active orogenic systems respond to transient mass fluxes, and of the possible influence of climate-driven erosive processes that diverge from equilibrium on the million-year scale. PMID:26598689

  19. Marine biological productivity, carbon cycling, and climate cooling during the Oligocene to Miocene transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diester-Haass, Liselotte; Billups, Katharina; Emeis, Kay-Christian

    2010-05-01

    The Oligocene to Miocene boundary (the so-called Mi1 event) marks one of the major Cenozoic cooling steps. A corresponding but slightly out of phase 13C maximum has been attributed to increased organic matter burial associated with global climate cooling (e.g., Zachos et al., 2001). To test this idea we have constructed records of marine biological productivity (based on benthic foraminiferal accumulation rates, BFAR) to parallel the stable isotope records from 20-25 Ma at three sites from the Atlantic Ocean sampling different hydrographic regimes. Our data show that the 18O and 13C maximum that characterize the Oligocene/Miocene boundary is accompanied by a pronounced maximum in BFAR derived paleoproductivity at all sites. In the subtropical Atlantic (Site 1265) and the Southern Ocean (Site 1090), productivity increases about 500 kyr prior to Mi1 in tune with the beginning of enhanced amplitude variations in the benthic foraminiferal 13C record. In the tropical Atlantic (Site 926), where we have appropriate sampling resolution (~10 kyr), eccentricity-scale variations in paleoproductivity are coherent with the stable isotope records and in-phase with the 18O values. Paleoproductivity leads 13C at the 400 kyr period in agreement with the lead of 18O values with respect to 13C values. These results illustrate that the link between Oligocene to Miocene climate transition and the carbon cycle is one of marine primary productivity both during the glacial event of Mi1 as well as on eccentricity time scales. The late Oligocene (24 Ma) increase of productivity suggests that a reduction of atmospheric CO2 levels mediated by increased biological productivity may have lead to climate cooling at the Oligocene to Miocene boundary.

  20. North Pacific deglacial hypoxic events linked to abrupt ocean warming.

    PubMed

    Praetorius, S K; Mix, A C; Walczak, M H; Wolhowe, M D; Addison, J A; Prahl, F G

    2015-11-19

    Marine sediments from the North Pacific document two episodes of expansion and strengthening of the subsurface oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) accompanied by seafloor hypoxia during the last deglacial transition. The mechanisms driving this hypoxia remain under debate. We present a new high-resolution alkenone palaeotemperature reconstruction from the Gulf of Alaska that reveals two abrupt warming events of 4-5 degrees Celsius at the onset of the Bølling and Holocene intervals that coincide with sudden shifts to hypoxia at intermediate depths. The presence of diatomaceous laminations and hypoxia-tolerant benthic foraminiferal species, peaks in redox-sensitive trace metals, and enhanced (15)N/(14)N ratio of organic matter, collectively suggest association with high export production. A decrease in (18)O/(16)O values of benthic foraminifera accompanying the most severe deoxygenation event indicates subsurface warming of up to about 2 degrees Celsius. We infer that abrupt warming triggered expansion of the North Pacific OMZ through reduced oxygen solubility and increased marine productivity via physiological effects; following initiation of hypoxia, remobilization of iron from hypoxic sediments could have provided a positive feedback on ocean deoxygenation through increased nutrient utilization and carbon export. Such a biogeochemical amplification process implies high sensitivity of OMZ expansion to warming. PMID:26581293

  1. Mid-Holocene climate transition in the Arctic: a database of multicentennial quality climate proxy data from 6 to 2 ka

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sundqvist, H. S.; Kaufman, D. S.; Balascio, N. L.

    2012-12-01

    A major goal of paleoclimatology is to reconstruct the spatial-temporal pattern of past climate changes. The spatial-temporal pattern of temperature variability reflects the dynamics of the climate system, including its response to known climate forcing mechanisms and thresholds that lead to rapid transitions. A large network of well-dated proxy climate records is needed to capture the details of past climate variability. We have embarked on major systematic compilation of previously published Holocene proxy climate records from the Arctic. The focus is on well-dated, highly resolved, continuous records that extend to at least 6 ka BP, thereby capturing the transition between the relatively warm conditions of the Holocene thermal maximum and the cooler Neoglaciation. We have identified 139 sites from north of 58° latitude where published proxy records are resolved at centennial scale (at least one value every 400 ± 200 years) and have timescales constrained by at least one radiometric age every 3000 years. We have assembled the metadata for the proxy records from all sites including information on their location, archive and proxy types, climate interpretation, quality of the record (sample resolution and geochronological control), and the data source. The database currently (August 2012) includes the numerical proxy records from most of the sites. We have also compiled the original geochronological data, with the future goal of revising the underlying age models and quantifying age uncertainties. The majority (73%) of the proxy records in the current metadatabase are from lake sediments, with the reminder from marine sediment (17%) and glacier ice (7%). Most of the paleo-temperature records (54%) are based on pollen spectra, and another 26% are based on chironomid assemblages. Many of the proxy records reflect changes in precipitation or hydrology (26%). A high proportion of the sites (35%) are from Fennoscandia, 22% are from the Canadian islands and Greenland

  2. Abrupt Transitions for Youths Leaving School: Models of Interagency Cooperation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Karcz, Stanley A.; And Others

    1985-01-01

    Three programs that have been successful in facilitating the reenrollment of students from exiting juvenile detention facilities are described: the Lake County, IL, Youth Advocate Liaison Program; the Lake County, Florida, Multiagency/Special Education Program; and the Rock Island, Illinois, Coalition High School Model. (CL)

  3. Impact of subgrid-scale radiative heating variability on the stratocumulus-to-trade cumulus transition in climate models

    SciTech Connect

    Xiao, Heng; Gustafson, William I.; Wang, Hailong

    2014-04-29

    Subgrid-scale interactions between turbulence and radiation are potentially important for accurately reproducing marine low clouds in climate models. To better understand the impact of these interactions, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is configured for large eddy simulation (LES) to study the stratocumulus-to-trade cumulus (Sc-to-Cu) transition. Using the GEWEX Atmospheric System Studies (GASS) composite Lagrangian transition case and the Atlantic Trade Wind Experiment (ATEX) case, it is shown that the lack of subgrid-scale turbulence-radiation interaction, as is the case in current generation climate models, accelerates the Sc-to-Cu transition. Our analysis suggests that in cloud-topped boundary layers subgrid-scale turbulence-radiation interactions contribute to stronger production of temperature variance, which in turn leads to stronger buoyancy production of turbulent kinetic energy and helps to maintain the Sc cover.

  4. From drought to flooding: understanding the abrupt 2010-11 hydrological annual cycle in the Amazonas River and tributaries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carlo Espinoza, Jhan; Ronchail, Josyane; Loup Guyot, Jean; Junquas, Clementine; Drapeau, Guillaume; Martinez, Jean Michel; Santini, William; Vauchel, Philippe; Lavado, Waldo; Ordoñez, Julio; Espinoza, Raúl

    2012-06-01

    In this work we document and analyze the hydrological annual cycles characterized by a rapid transition between low and high flows in the Amazonas River (Peruvian Amazon) and we show how these events, which may impact vulnerable riverside residents, are related to regional climate variability. Our analysis is based on comprehensive discharge, rainfall and average suspended sediment data sets. Particular attention is paid to the 2010-11 hydrological year, when an unprecedented abrupt transition from the extreme September 2010 drought (8300 m3 s-1) to one of the four highest discharges in April 2011 (49 500 m3 s-1) was recorded at Tamshiyacu (Amazonas River). This unusual transition is also observed in average suspended sediments. Years with a rapid increase in discharge are characterized by negative sea surface temperature anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific during austral summer, corresponding to a La Niña-like mode. It originates a geopotential height wave train over the subtropical South Pacific and southeastern South America, with a negative anomaly along the southern Amazon and the southeastern South Atlantic convergence zone region. As a consequence, the monsoon flux is retained over the Amazon and a strong convergence of humidity occurs in the Peruvian Amazon basin, favoring high rainfall and discharge. These features are also reported during the 2010-11 austral summer, when an intense La Niña event characterized the equatorial Pacific.

  5. Abrupt rise of new machine ecology beyond human response time

    PubMed Central

    Johnson, Neil; Zhao, Guannan; Hunsader, Eric; Qi, Hong; Johnson, Nicholas; Meng, Jing; Tivnan, Brian

    2013-01-01

    Society's techno-social systems are becoming ever faster and more computer-orientated. However, far from simply generating faster versions of existing behaviour, we show that this speed-up can generate a new behavioural regime as humans lose the ability to intervene in real time. Analyzing millisecond-scale data for the world's largest and most powerful techno-social system, the global financial market, we uncover an abrupt transition to a new all-machine phase characterized by large numbers of subsecond extreme events. The proliferation of these subsecond events shows an intriguing correlation with the onset of the system-wide financial collapse in 2008. Our findings are consistent with an emerging ecology of competitive machines featuring ‘crowds' of predatory algorithms, and highlight the need for a new scientific theory of subsecond financial phenomena. PMID:24022120

  6. PALEOECOLOGY. Abrupt warming events drove Late Pleistocene Holarctic megafaunal turnover.

    PubMed

    Cooper, Alan; Turney, Chris; Hughen, Konrad A; Brook, Barry W; McDonald, H Gregory; Bradshaw, Corey J A

    2015-08-01

    The mechanisms of Late Pleistocene megafauna extinctions remain fiercely contested, with human impact or climate change cited as principal drivers. We compared ancient DNA and radiocarbon data from 31 detailed time series of regional megafaunal extinctions and replacements over the past 56,000 years with standard and new combined records of Northern Hemisphere climate in the Late Pleistocene. Unexpectedly, rapid climate changes associated with interstadial warming events are strongly associated with the regional replacement or extinction of major genetic clades or species of megafauna. The presence of many cryptic biotic transitions before the Pleistocene/Holocene boundary revealed by ancient DNA confirms the importance of climate change in megafaunal population extinctions and suggests that metapopulation structures necessary to survive such repeated and rapid climatic shifts were susceptible to human impacts. PMID:26250679

  7. Refining our estimate of atmospheric CO2 across the Eocene-Oligocene climatic transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heureux, Ana M. C.; Rickaby, Rosalind E. M.

    2015-01-01

    The Eocene-Oligocene transition (EOT) followed by Oligocene isotope event 1 (Oi-1) is a dramatic global switch in climate characterized by deep-sea cooling and the first formation of permanent Antarctic ice. Models and proxy evidence suggest that declining partial pressure of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2atm) below a threshold may explain the onset of global cooling and associated ice formation at Oi-1. However, significant uncertainty remains in the estimated values and salient features of reconstructed CO2atm across this interval. In this study, we present novel carbon isotope records from size separated diatom associated organic matter (δ13Cdiatom) preserved in silica frustules. Physical preservation of this material allows concurrent investigation of isotopic and cell size information, providing two input parameters for biogeochemical models and the reconstruction of CO2atm. We estimate CO2atm in two ways; first we use size and reaction-diffusion kinetics of a cell to calculate a CO2atm threshold. Second we use the calibrated relationship between ɛp(diatom) and carbon dioxide from culture and field studies to create a record of CO2atm prior to and across the transition. Our study, from site 1090 in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean, shows CO2atm values fluctuating between 900 and 1700 ± 100 p.p.m.v. across the EOT followed by a drop to values in the order of 700 to 800 ± 100 p.p.m.v. just prior to the onset of Oi-1. Our values and magnitude of CO2atm change differ from previous estimates, but confirm the overall trends inferred from boron isotopes and alkenones, including a marked rebound following Oi-1. Due to the intricate nature of the climate system and complexities in constraining paleo-proxies, this work emphasizes the importance of a multi-proxy approach to estimating of CO2atm in order to elucidate its role in the emplacement of Antarctic ice-sheets at the EOT.

  8. Transitioning from Corn to Switchgrass in the US Great Plains: Implications for Climate and Water Resource

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oglesby, R. J.; Rowe, C. M.; Erickson, D. J.

    2007-12-01

    Much attention has been paid to the use of corn as a biofuel, in large part because corn is already grown throughout much of the US and technology is in place to convert it to ethanol. Increasingly, however, it is recognized that other types of vegetation are likely to be more efficient producers of biofuel. In particular, switchgrass (the primary component of prairie long grass) may be a very efficient producer in the Great Plains (as well as portions of the Midwest and Southeast), where it is an indigenous species. The dominant agricultural planting in the Great Plains at present is corn. A transition from corn to switchgrass may have numerous benefits, both because it may be a better source of biofuels, and because in the water-scarce Great Plains it would likely make better use of available water resources. In addition to these positive benefits, however, there may be effects on the climate of this region that can be deleterious. While switchgrass, with its deep and extensive root system may be less subject to drought, and less needing of irrigation, than corn, it also cycles much less water during its growing season. This reduction in water input to the atmosphere means less water available for local and regional precipitation, and also dramatically affects the surface energy balance, resulting in more sensible and longwave heating of the atmosphere. This may cause a significant increase in surface air temperature and stabilization of the atmosphere, leading to a reduction in precipitation as well as increased evaporative potential (both of which would help negate any increased water efficiency of switchgrass). We use the MM5 and WRF regional climate models to investigate these effects over the Great Plains. Simulations were made assuming all corn ('irrigated cropland') and all switchgrass ('grassland') and compared to a control using present-day land use types that is largely a mix of the two. Model runs are being made for three years with normal

  9. Global carbon cycle perturbation across the Eocene-Oligocene climate transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Armstrong McKay, David I.; Tyrrell, Toby; Wilson, Paul A.

    2016-02-01

    The Eocene-Oligocene transition (EOT), ~34 Ma, marks a tipping point in the long-term Cenozoic greenhouse to icehouse climate transition. Paleorecords reveal stepwise rapid cooling and ice growth across the EOT tightly coupled to a transient benthic δ13C excursion and a major and permanent deepening of the carbonate compensation depth (CCD). Based on biogeochemical box modeling, Merico et al. (2008) suggested that a combination of (1) glacioeustatic sea level fall-induced shelf-basin carbonate burial fractionation and (2) shelf carbonate weathering can account for the carbon cycle perturbation, but this finding has been questioned. Alternative proposed mechanisms include increased ocean ventilation, decreased carbonate burial, increased organic carbon burial, increased silicate weathering, and increased ocean calcium concentration. Here we use an improved version of the biogeochemical box model of Merico et al. (2008) to reevaluate these competing hypotheses and an additional mechanism, the expansion of "carbon capacitors" such as permafrost and peatlands. We find that changes in calcium concentration, silicate weathering, and carbonate or organic carbon burial each yield a response that is fundamentally at odds with the form and/or sign of the paleorecords. Shelf-basin carbonate burial fractionation (CCD change), plus shelf carbonate weathering, sequestration of 12C-enriched carbon into carbon capacitors, and possibly increased ocean ventilation (δ13C excursion), offers the best fit to the paleorecords. Further work is needed to understand why the EOT carbon cycle perturbation is so unique when the forcing mechanisms hypothesized to be responsible (cooling and ice growth) are not peculiar to this event.

  10. Diagnosis of Placental Abruption: Relationship between Clinical and Histopathological Findings

    PubMed Central

    Elsasser, Denise A.; Ananth, Cande V.; Prasad, Vinay; Vintzileos, Anthony M.

    2009-01-01

    Objective We evaluated the extent to which histologic lesions bearing a diagnosis of abruption conform to a diagnosis based on established clinical criteria. We further examined the profile of chronic and acute histologic lesions associated with clinical abruption. Methods Data from the New Jersey-Placental Abruption Study – a multi-center, case-control study – were utilized to compare the clinical and histologic criteria for abruption. The study was based on 162 women with clinically diagnosed abruption and 173 controls. We examined the concordance between clinical indicators for abruption with those of a histopathological diagnosis. The clinical criteria for a diagnosis of abruption included (i) evidence of retroplacental clot(s); (ii) abruption diagnosed on prenatal ultrasound; or (iii) vaginal bleeding accompanied by nonreassuring fetal status or uterine hypertonicity. The pathological criteria for abruption diagnosis included hematoma, fibrin deposition, compressed villi, and hemosiderin-laden histiocytes in cases with older hematomas. Acute lesions included chorioamnionitis, funisitis, acute deciduitis, meconium stained membranes, villous stromal hemorrhage, and villous edema. Chronic lesions included chronic deciduitis, decidual necrosis, decidual vasculopathy, placental infarctions, villous maldevelopment (delayed or accelerated maturation), hemosiderin deposition, intervillous thrombus, and chronic villitis. Results Of clinically diagnosed cases, the sensitivity and specificity for a histologic confirmation of abruption were 30.2% and 100%, respectively. Presence of retroplacental clots remained the single most common finding (77.1%) among clinically diagnosed cases. Among the acute lesions, chorioamnionitis and funisitis were associated with abruption. The only chronic histologic lesion associated with abruption was placental infarctions. Conclusions The concordance between clinical and pathologic criteria for abruption diagnosis is poor. The criteria

  11. Final Report for "Interdecadal climate regime transition and its interaction with climate change in CMIP5 simulations" (DOE Grant DE-SC0005344)

    SciTech Connect

    Huang, Huei-Ping

    2013-12-10

    Large-amplitude interdecadal shifts of atmospheric and ocean states from one climate regime to another have been observed several times in the 20th century. They include the 1976 transition from cool tropical Pacific SST to warm tropical SST and the post-1998 reversal back to a cooler state. The transition events affect both atmospheric circulation and global water cycle. Because on decadal-to-interdecadal time scale the amplitude of the climate shift is comparable to the trend induced by anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing, understanding the structure, statistics, and predictability of those events is critical for near-term climate projection. This study analyzed the statistics and predictability of the transition events in the CMIP5 climate model simulations by using a set of climate indices, including atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) and regionally integrated hydrological variables. A significant improvement in the simulated 20th century climatology of AAM is found in CMIP5, compared to earlier simulations in CMIP3. Nevertheless, the improvement in the simulated decadal-to-interdecadal variability in AAM is relatively minor. Systematic biases in the regional water cycle that exist in CMIP3 are found to also exist in CMIP5, although with slight improvements in the latter. Climate shift events with an amplitude comparable to the observed 1976 or 1998 event are found to rarely occur in the CMIP5 20th century simulations. In the 21st century simulations with increasing GHG concentration, the upward trend superimposed to natural variability slightly increases the frequency of occurrences of the large-amplitude events. Even so, 1976-like events remain rare in those runs. In an additional analysis of the CMIP5 Decadal Runs for the 20th century, it is found that the decadal predictability in terms of AAM is generally weak, with useful predictability mainly restricted to within ENSO time scale. Overall, this study showed promises in the improved performance of CMIP5

  12. Anticipating abrupt shifts in temporal evolution of probability of eruption

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rohmer, Jeremy; Loschetter, Annick

    2016-04-01

    Estimating the probability of eruption by jointly accounting for different sources of monitoring parameters over time is a key component for volcano risk management. In the present study, we are interested in the transition from a state of low-to-moderate probability value and to the one of high probability value: the latter value generally supports the call for evacuation. By using the data of MESIMEX exercise at the Vesuvius volcano, we investigated the potential for time-varying indicators related to the correlation structure or to the variability of the probability time series for detecting in advance this critical transition. We found that changes in the power spectra and in the standard deviation estimated over a rolling time window both present an abrupt increase, which marks the approaching shift. Our numerical experiments revealed that the transition from an eruption probability of 10-15% to >70% could be identified up 4 hours in advance, ~2.5 days before the evacuation call (decided for an eruption probability >80% during the MESIMEX exercise). This additional lead time could be useful to place different key services (e.g., emergency services for vulnerable groups, commandeering additional transportation means, etc.) on a higher level of alert before the actual call for evacuation.

  13. Anticipating abrupt shifts in temporal evolution of probability of eruption

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rohmer, J.; Loschetter, A.

    2016-04-01

    Estimating the probability of eruption by jointly accounting for different sources of monitoring parameters over time is a key component for volcano risk management. In the present study, we are interested in the transition from a state of low-to-moderate probability value to a state of high probability value. By using the data of MESIMEX exercise at the Vesuvius volcano, we investigated the potential for time-varying indicators related to the correlation structure or to the variability of the probability time series for detecting in advance this critical transition. We found that changes in the power spectra and in the standard deviation estimated over a rolling time window both present an abrupt increase, which marks the approaching shift. Our numerical experiments revealed that the transition from an eruption probability of 10-15% to > 70% could be identified up to 1-3 h in advance. This additional lead time could be useful to place different key services (e.g., emergency services for vulnerable groups, commandeering additional transportation means, etc.) on a higher level of alert before the actual call for evacuation.

  14. Transitions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nathanson, Jeanne H., Ed.

    1993-01-01

    This theme issue on transitions for individuals with disabilities contains nine papers discussing transition programs and issues. "Transition Issues for the 1990s," by Michael J. Ward and William D. Halloran, discusses self-determination, school responsibility for transition, continued educational engagement of at-risk students, and service…

  15. Signs of critical transition in the Everglades wetlands in response to climate and anthropogenic changes.

    PubMed

    Foti, Romano; del Jesus, Manuel; Rinaldo, Andrea; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio

    2013-04-16

    The increasing pressure of climatic change and anthropogenic activities is predicted to have major effects on ecosystems around the world. With their fragility and sensitivity to hydrologic shifts and land-use changes, wetlands are among the most vulnerable of such ecosystems. Focusing on the Everglades National Park, we here assess the impact of changes in the hydrologic regime, as well as habitat loss, on the spatial configuration of vegetation species. Because the current structuring of vegetation clusters in the Everglades exhibits power-law behavior and such behavior is often associated with self-organization and dynamics occurring near critical transition points, the quantification and prediction of the impact of those changes on the ecosystem is deemed of paramount importance. We implement a robust model able to identify the main hydrologic and local drivers of the vegetation species spatial structuring and apply it for quantitative assessment. We find that shifts in the hydropatterns will mostly affect the relative abundance of species that currently colonize specific hydroperiod niches. Habitat loss or disruption, however, would have a massive impact on all plant communities, which are found to exhibit clear threshold behaviors when a given percentage of habitable habitat is lost. PMID:23576751

  16. Gravel-rich layers from the Mid-Miocene Climate Transition near East Antarctica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pierce, E. L.; van de Flierdt, T.; Hemming, S. R.; Williams, T.; Cook, C.; Passchier, S.

    2013-12-01

    A major step in the evolution of the East Antarctic ice sheet (EAIS) occurred ~14 million years ago during the Mid-Miocene Climate Transition (MMCT). This global climatic shift had a profound effect on Earth's climatic system, including a decrease in global temperatures and sea level, and an increase in global ice volume. Of particular interest during this transition is the growth of the EAIS; despite inferences on the total amount of ice growth on Antarctica as a whole, little is known of the temporal and spatial evolution of the East Antarctic ice sheet during this time. Here we present direct evidence of ice sheet dynamics during the MMCT from sediment in deep ocean cores close to the Antarctic continent. Between 14.2 and 13.8 Ma, coeval with the MMCT, unusually high concentrations of dropstones are found at IODP Site IODP Site U1356, Wilkes Land, and ODP Site 1165, Prydz Bay. Such concentrations of dropstones are found only in Neogene intervals within these cores, suggesting a particularly dynamic ice sheet during the MMCT. We interpret the IRD-rich layers to be caused by repeated, massive pulses of debris-laden icebergs. Taken together with evidence for global ice volume oscillations from seawater oxygen isotope records, our new records suggests that the MMCT featured repeated growth and collapse of the EAIS in at least two locations. At IODP Site U1356, we have obtained 40Ar/39Ar ages for all available ice-rafted hornblende grains (>150μm). Results suggest a consistent provenance from the nearby Mertz Shear Zone during at least six advance and retreat events of the EAIS within the Wilkes Subglacial Basin during the MMCT. While the ice margin probably sat along the extension of the Mertz Shear Zone at the western edge of the Wilkes Basin, variations in the ɛNd of the fine fraction of these sediments (<63μm) require significant changes in the overall provenance. The occurrence of radiogenic values during at least three times within the MMCT hints to supply

  17. Paradox of the peak-PCIM (Paleocene Carbon Isotope Maxima; ~57.8Ma) and Abrupt Global Warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harper, D. T.; Hoenisch, B.; Zachos, J. C.

    2015-12-01

    The Paleocene Carbon Isotope Maxima (PCIM; ~57.8Ma) represents a major transition in global δ13C during the late Paleocene, when the long-term positive trend in δ13C reversed from positive to negative. The peak-PCIM (~57.7Ma) has been tightly resolved in new high-resolution, astronomically-tuned benthic isotope records from IODP Sites 1209 (Pacific) and 1262 (Atlantic), which show the final phase of δ13C enrichment as abrupt (~1‰ in <100kyrs) and coinciding with a 0.5‰ decline in benthic δ18O indicative of 2-3ºC of bottom water warming, effectively marking the onset of a gradual 8Myr long warming trend [Littler et al., EPSL 2014]. Typically, during the Paleogene on orbital time scales, warming is observed during intervals of δ13C depletion, consistent with release of isotopically light carbon to the atmosphere. This event, which has the appearance of a bifurcation in the long-term coupling of climate system and the carbon cycle, poses an interesting paradox as any rapid carbon release to the atmosphere should, in theory, create a negative excursion because all of the major carbon sources are isotopically light, whether volcanic outgassing, weathering/oxidation of organic carbon, or methane release [Dunkley-Jones et al., Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2010]. If global, there are several testable mechanisms that may explain the shift including increase in burial flux of light carbon, a reduction in heavy carbon burial flux, or a large-scale circulation change perhaps associated with the transition of a major oceanic gateway. Using trace metal (B/Ca and Mg/Ca) and stable isotope (δ11B, δ18O, and δ13C) geochemistry, here we establish the nature of the peak-PCIM at sites from 3 different ocean basins (IODP Sites 690, 1209, and 1262) and begin to test several of the possible mechanisms for change. Mg/Ca in mixed-layer planktonic foraminifera show 2-3°C of sea surface warming coinciding with, and abrupt as, the benthic carbon isotope enrichment at all sites. Bottom

  18. Abrupt drainage cycles of the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet.

    PubMed

    Soulet, Guillaume; Ménot, Guillemette; Bayon, Germain; Rostek, Frauke; Ponzevera, Emmanuel; Toucanne, Samuel; Lericolais, Gilles; Bard, Edouard

    2013-04-23

    Continental ice sheets are a key component of the Earth's climate system, but their internal dynamics need to be further studied. Since the last deglaciation, the northern Eurasian Fennoscandian Ice Sheet (FIS) has been connected to the Black Sea (BS) watershed, making this basin a suitable location to investigate former ice-sheet dynamics. Here, from a core retrieved in the BS, we combine the use of neodymium isotopes, high-resolution elemental analysis, and biomarkers to trace changes in sediment provenance and river runoff. We reveal cyclic releases of meltwater originating from Lake Disna, a proglacial lake linked to the FIS during Heinrich Stadial 1. Regional interactions within the climate-lake-FIS system, linked to changes in the availability of subglacial water, led to abrupt drainage cycles of the FIS into the BS watershed. This phenomenon raised the BS water level by ∼100 m until the sill of the Bosphorus Strait was reached, flooding the vast northwestern BS shelf and deeply affecting the hydrology and circulation of the BS and, probably, of the Marmara and Aegean Seas. PMID:23569264

  19. Forest-Savanna Transitions in West-Africa: The climatic imprint of bimodal distributions in vegetation cover

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dekker, Stefan; Yin, Zun; Baudena, Mara; van den Hurk, Bart; Dijkstra, Henk

    2015-04-01

    Positive land-climate feedbacks can suddenly shift the vegetation state. Observed bimodal distributions of woody cover in West Africa provide evidence that alternative ecosystem states may exist under the same precipitation regimes. Understanding the explicit climate conditions where the woody cover bimodality can exist is important to predict crucial transitions of ecosystems due to climate change. This also helps in understanding the complexity of land-climate interactions. In this study, we show that bimodality can also be observed in mean annual shortwave radiation and above ground biomass. Through conditional histogram analysis, we find that the bimodality of woody cover in West-Africa can only exist under low mean annual shortwave radiation and low above ground biomass. From our analysis we find that the mean annual precipitation is not a sufficient predictor of a potential land cover change. Indicators of climate seasonality are strongly related to the observed land cover type. However, these indicators can only demonstrate the potential occurrence of bimodality but cannot exclude the probability of bimodal vegetation distributions. Regions with high potential of land cover transitions are displayed. The result suggests for instance that the tropical forest in the Congo basin, may be unstable and shows the possibility to significantly decrease. An increase in the area covered by savanna and grass is possible, which coincides with an observed re-greening of the Sahara These findings derived from observations only, are compared with three different Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (JSBACH, LPJ-GUESSSPITFIRE and aDGVM) describing the forest, savanna, and grassland transitions. Through these comparisons we improve the understanding of the bistable behavior of savanna systems due to two main mechanisms, 1) water limitation to tree growth, and tree-grass competition for water, 2) a grass-fire feedback, which maintains both forest and savanna occurrences in mesic

  20. Climate and sea-level variation during MIS 21 from a sediment core in Osaka Bay, Japan: a sign of termination of the Mid-Pleistocene Climate Transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kitaba, I.; Harada, M.; Hyodo, M.; Katoh, S.; Sato, H.; Matsushita, M.

    2010-12-01

    The Quaternary climate system is strongly dominated by changes in the Earth’s orbital elements. The dominant cyclicity changed from about 41 ka (obliquity cycle) to about 100 ka (eccentricity cycle) during the interval known as the Mid-Pleistocene climate transition (MPT), roughly 1.25-0.7 Ma. This study reports climate and sea-level variation for the marine oxygen isotope stage (MIS) 21, encompassing the end of the MPT, based on a pollen, diatom and sulfur record from a 50-m thick sequence in a core from Osaka Bay, western Japan. An extremely warm climate coincided with the sea-level highstand of substage 21.5, when the warm-temperate element Quercus (Cyclobalanopsis) exceeds 40% of total arboreal pollen. This was followed by a warm-temperate to temperate and humid climate that continued until the end of MIS 21. Climate was dominated by precessional cyclicity, with an inverse correlation between temperature and precipitation. The postglacial sea-level rise reached its highest peak in substage 21.5, when paleo-Osaka Bay reached its maximum extent including the Kyoto and Nara Basins. At this time pelagic diatoms were dominant in the central part of the bay. Sea level dropped below the Osaka Bay sill (about -60m at present) during substage 21.4, followed by a rise above the sill in substage 21.3, and a drop at 21.2. Sea level remained below the sill during substage 21.1. The thermal maximum and sea-level peak occurrence just after the rapid postglacial sea level rise, after which there was a gradual decline in temperature and sea-level accompanied by precession-related oscillations; these features are typical of the post-MPT interglacials dominated by 100-ka cyclicity. These features may be a sign of termination of the MPT.

  1. Transitions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Field, David; And Others

    1992-01-01

    Includes four articles: "Career Aspirations" (Field); "Making the Transition to a New Curriculum" (Baker, Householder); "How about a 'Work to School' Transition?" (Glasberg); and "Technological Improvisation: Bringing CNC to Woodworking" (Charles, McDuffie). (SK)

  2. Potential transition from seasonal to ephemeral snow in Great Lakes watersheds in a warming climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Durand, M. T.; Rine, M.

    2013-12-01

    Snow cover in many regions is a primary contributor to the hydrologic cycle and has significant surface energy balance, biogeochemical, ecological, and societal impacts. This study uses weather stations in Canada (using Environment Canada (EC) data) and the United States (using the Midwest Regional Climate Center (MRCC) data) to characterize climatological snow cover in the Great Lakes basins, and its sensitivity to future winter temperature increases. Much of this region is dominated by an ephemeral snow cover, where snow comes and goes throughout the winter months, having no significant seasonal duration. We defined "expected duration" as the uninterrupted number of days with snow cover on the ground in a typical winter. The number of days of snow cover (as opposed to the expected duration) are also analyzed; the expected duration is a better metric of whether a snowcover is ephemeral or seasonal, since it ties more directly to snowpack residence times and seasonality of runoff. We estimated the snowcover expected duration at 448 weather stations throughout the Great Lakes basins. We defined ephemeral snowcover to have an expected duration of 60 days or greater per winter, which corresponds to a latitude north of approximately 44°, in this area. We found that average winter temperature can be used to predict duration of snowcover expected duration, to first order. The ephemeral snow line in the Great Lakes basins corresponds to an average winter temperature of approximately -4 to -5° C. The statistical model relating snowcover expected duration and average winter air temperature indicates approximately a 22 day decrease in snowcover expected duration with an increase of 2° degree C. This estimate of duration sensitivity to temperature was used to identify seasonal and ephemeral watershed changes for 2° C increase in temperature. Our analysis shows that approximately 25 percent of the snow cover in the Great Lakes Basins will shift from a seasonal to an

  3. Panic anxiety after abrupt discontinuation of mianserin.

    PubMed

    Kuniyoshi, M; Arikawa, K; Miura, C; Inanaga, K

    1989-06-01

    We observed a case of withdrawal after abrupt discontinuation of mianserin. A 41-year-old woman was treated according to a diagnosis of depression, which was her 6th episode. Mianserin 30 mg/day, etizolam 1 mg/day and flunitrazepam 1 mg/day were administered. When the patient discontinued taking the drugs by herself because of subsiding of these symptoms, severe panic anxiety appeared. This panic anxiety was not relieved by taking etizolam and flunitrazepam again, but subsided rapidly by the re-administration of mianserin 30 mg/day, and because of that the depressive symptom also disappeared. From these experiences panic anxiety seemed to be a withdrawal symptom, and involvement of the noradrenergic system in panic anxiety as well as serotonergic system was suggested. PMID:2796025

  4. Southern Ocean and Antarctic Peninsula Temperatures During Critical Climate Transitions of the Cenozoic Constrained by Clumped Isotope Thermometry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dill, R.; Eagle, R.; Henry, D.; Praskin, S.; Mering, J. A.; Petryshyn, V. A.; Priyadarshi, A.; Rycroft, L.; Vollmer, T.; Chea, Y.; Dix, J.; Aguilar, A.; Supakkul, K.; Tran, B.; Lipel, Z.; Flores, S.; Riesselman, C. R.; Taviani, M.; Marenssi, S.; Harwood, D. M.; Lunt, D. J.; Valdes, P. J.; Meckler, A. N.; Tripati, A.

    2014-12-01

    The Southern Ocean and Antarctica play fundamental roles in the global climate system. These polar regions are a major area for the net loss of heat to space. Ice storage on Antarctica also influences the global water cycle. Through upwelling of deep waters, the Southern Ocean is an important regulator of atmospheric CO2. To better constrain the evolution of paleoclimate in this region over major climate transitions of the Cenozoic, we estimated ocean temperatures using clumped isotope thermometry. Clumped isotope thermometry is a thermodynamically-based stable isotope thermometer that can be used to constrain temperatures previously estimated using other paleothermometers (which in turn leads to constraints on ice volume), as it allows the exclusion of water isotope composition from temperature estimates (unlike the δ18O thermometer). We previously have published calibrations for foraminifera and mollusks, two of the major archives used in this study. Critical transitions investigated include the Eocene-Oligocene boundary and the Middle Miocene Climate Transition. Study sites include Seymour Island (Antarctic Peninsula), ANDRILL (Southern McMurdo Sounds), Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Sites 689/690 (Weddell Sea), and ODP 744 (Kerguelen Plateau). Results will be compared to GCM output.

  5. Climate and Fuel Controls on North American Paleofires: Smoldering to Flaming in the Late-glacial-Holocene Transition

    PubMed Central

    Han, Y.M.; Peteet, D.M.; Arimoto, R.; Cao, J.J.; An, Z.S.; Sritrairat, S.; Yan, B.Z.

    2016-01-01

    Smoldering and flaming fires, which emit different proportions of organic (OC) and black carbon (BC, in the form of char and soot), have long been recognized in modern wildfire observations but never in a paleo-record, and little is known about their interactions with climate. Here we show that in the late glacial-early Holocene transition period, when the climate was moist, relatively high quantities of char were deposited in Linsley Pond, Connecticut, USA while soot was more abundant during the warmer and drier early Holocene interval. The highest soot mass accumulation rates (MARs) occurred at the beginning of the Holocene as fuel availability increased through the climatic transition when boreal forests were locally extirpated. These variations with time are related to the different formation pathways of char and soot, which are governed by combustion efficiency. This study provides an approach for differentiating smoldering from flaming combustion in paleo-wildfire reconstructions. Our results suggest that climate and fuel loads control the occurrence of different wildfire types and precipitation may play a key role. PMID:26860820

  6. Climate and Fuel Controls on North American Paleofires: Smoldering to Flaming in the Late-glacial-Holocene Transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Han, Y. M.; Peteet, D. M.; Arimoto, R.; Cao, J. J.; An, Z. S.; Sritrairat, S.; Yan, B. Z.

    2016-02-01

    Smoldering and flaming fires, which emit different proportions of organic (OC) and black carbon (BC, in the form of char and soot), have long been recognized in modern wildfire observations but never in a paleo-record, and little is known about their interactions with climate. Here we show that in the late glacial-early Holocene transition period, when the climate was moist, relatively high quantities of char were deposited in Linsley Pond, Connecticut, USA while soot was more abundant during the warmer and drier early Holocene interval. The highest soot mass accumulation rates (MARs) occurred at the beginning of the Holocene as fuel availability increased through the climatic transition when boreal forests were locally extirpated. These variations with time are related to the different formation pathways of char and soot, which are governed by combustion efficiency. This study provides an approach for differentiating smoldering from flaming combustion in paleo-wildfire reconstructions. Our results suggest that climate and fuel loads control the occurrence of different wildfire types and precipitation may play a key role.

  7. Climate and Fuel Controls on North American Paleofires: Smoldering to Flaming in the Late-glacial-Holocene Transition.

    PubMed

    Han, Y M; Peteet, D M; Arimoto, R; Cao, J J; An, Z S; Sritrairat, S; Yan, B Z

    2016-01-01

    Smoldering and flaming fires, which emit different proportions of organic (OC) and black carbon (BC, in the form of char and soot), have long been recognized in modern wildfire observations but never in a paleo-record, and little is known about their interactions with climate. Here we show that in the late glacial-early Holocene transition period, when the climate was moist, relatively high quantities of char were deposited in Linsley Pond, Connecticut, USA while soot was more abundant during the warmer and drier early Holocene interval. The highest soot mass accumulation rates (MARs) occurred at the beginning of the Holocene as fuel availability increased through the climatic transition when boreal forests were locally extirpated. These variations with time are related to the different formation pathways of char and soot, which are governed by combustion efficiency. This study provides an approach for differentiating smoldering from flaming combustion in paleo-wildfire reconstructions. Our results suggest that climate and fuel loads control the occurrence of different wildfire types and precipitation may play a key role. PMID:26860820

  8. Transition.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thompson, Sandy, Ed.; And Others

    1990-01-01

    This "feature issue" focuses on transition from school to adult life for persons with disabilities. Included are "success stories," brief program descriptions, and a list of resources. Individual articles include the following titles and authors: "Transition: An Energizing Concept" (Paul Bates); "Transition Issues for the 1990s" (William Halloran…

  9. Deep water temperature, carbonate ion, and ice volume changes across the Eocene-Oligocene climate transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pusz, A. E.; Thunell, R. C.; Miller, K. G.

    2011-06-01

    Paired benthic foraminiferal stable isotope and Mg/Ca data are used to estimate bottom water temperature (BWT) and ice volume changes associated with the Eocene-Oligocene Transition (EOT), the largest global climate event of the past 50 Myr. We utilized ODP Sites 1090 and 1265 in the South Atlantic to assess seawater δ18O (δw), Antarctic ice volume, and sea level changes across the EOT (˜33.8-33.54 Ma). We also use benthic δ13C data to reconstruct the sources of the deep water masses in this region during the EOT. Our data, together with previously published records, indicate that a pulse of Northern Component Water influenced the South Atlantic immediately prior to and following the EOT. Benthic δ18O records show a 0.5‰ increase at ˜33.8 Ma (EOT-1) that represents a ˜2°C cooling and a small (˜10 m) eustatic fall that is followed by a 1.0‰ increase associated with Oi-1. The expected cooling of deep waters at Oi-1 (˜33.54 Ma) is not apparent in our Mg/Ca records. We suggest the cooling is masked by coeval changes in the carbonate saturation state (Δ[CO32-]) which affect the Mg/Ca data. To account for this, the BWT, ice volume, and δw estimates are corrected for a change in the Δ[CO32-] of deep waters on the basis of recently published work. Corrected BWT at Sites 1090 and 1265 show a ˜1.5°C cooling coincident with Oi-1 and an average δw increase of ˜0.75‰. The increase in ice volume during Oi-1 resulted in a ˜70 m drop in global sea level and the development of an Antarctic ice sheet that was near modern size or slightly larger.

  10. Astronomical control on climate and vegetation history at the Triassic-Jurassic transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruhl, Micha; Bonis, Nina R.; Deenen, Martijn H. L.; Abels, Hemmo A.; Krijgsman, Wout; Kurschner, Wolfram M.

    2010-05-01

    The end-Triassic mass extinction (~201.5 Ma), marked by major terrestrial ecosystem changes and a 50% loss in marine biodiversity, closely coincides with the onset of intensified volcanic activity in the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province (CAMP), the largest igneous province on earth. The end-Triassic environmental crisis is followed by successive recovery in the early Jurassic Hettangian stage. However, accurate timing of events is poorly constrained. Here we present combined chemical and biological proxy records and field observations, covering the uppermost Triassic and lower Jurassic marine successions of St. Audrie's Bay and East Quantoxhead (UK). A floating astronomical time-scale of ~2.5 Myr has been constructed based on the recognition of ~100-kyr eccentricity cycles. Individual black shale occurrences are interpreted to reflect precession-controlled changes in monsoon intensity. Gaseous CO2 release by the increased volcanic activity strongly enhanced greenhouse warming and likely caused a shift from a diverse gymnosperm vegetation to a monotonous Cheirolepidiaceous conifer vegetation. Vegetation distribution at the Triassic-Jurassic transition was likely influenced by the strong temperature and humidity gradient from the oceans to the interior of Pangea. Vegetation cover was mostly situated in coastal regions, with the inlands being more arid. Strong eccentricity-scale paced increases in pollen concentrations suggest the inland expansion of Cheirolepidiaceous vegetation cover, which is likely caused by intensified monsoon activity. Our palynological data further shows precession-scale paced peaks in spore abundance during the mass extinction interval, suggesting astronomical forcing of the hydrological cycle under extreme climatic conditions.

  11. Millennial-scale climate variability in response to changing glacial and orbital boundary conditions during the Mid-Pleistocene transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferretti, Patrizia; Crowhurst, Simon; Drysdale, Russell; Bajo, Petra; Barbante, Carlo

    2016-04-01

    The Mid-Pleistocene transition represents perhaps the most important climate transition in the Quaternary period, yet it is one of the most poorly understood. Although the exact timing and mechanism of the onset of the "100 kyr" regime remain a matter of debate, it is well established that the overall periodicity of the glacial-interglacial cycles changed from a dominant 41 kyr obliquity periodicity prior to ~0.9 Ma to a dominant late Pleistocene 100 kyr variance. This change in the frequency domain was associated with an increase in the amplitude of global ice volume variations that, superimposed on a long-term climatic trend towards more glacial conditions over millions of years, produced some of the most extreme glaciations recorded. This interval of time has often been considered to be important in relation to long-term Milankovitch-scale climate variability. In contrast, here, special emphasis will be placed on assessing the presence and the characteristics of the suborbital-scale variability, and reconstructing the evolution of millennial-scale climate variability as the average climate state evolve toward generally colder conditions with larger ice sheets, and the spectral character of climate variability shifted from dominantly 41 kyr to 100 kyr. Appealing evidence suggests that millennial-scale climate variability is amplified during times of intense forcing changes, but this rapid variability has not been thoroughly explored yet at the time when the major changes in climate periodicity occurred. To address these questions, we have examined the record of climatic conditions from Marine Isotope Stages 25 to 16 (~970-650 ka) using high-resolution stable isotope records from benthic and planktonic foraminifera from a sedimentary sequence in the North Atlantic (Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 306, Site U1313) in order to assess millennial-scale changes in sea-surface and deep-water conditions, the dynamics of thermohaline deep-water circulation

  12. Abrupt Atmospheric Methane Increases Associated With Hudson Strait Heinrich Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rhodes, R.; Brook, E.; Chiang, J. C. H.; Blunier, T.; Maselli, O. J.; McConnell, J. R.; Romanini, D.; Severinghaus, J. P.

    2015-12-01

    The drivers of abrupt climate change during the Last Glacial Period are not well understood. While Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) cycles are thought to be linked to variations in the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Ocean Circulation (AMOC), it is not clear how or if Heinrich Events—extensive influxes of icebergs into the North Atlantic Ocean that impacted global climate and biogeochemistry—are related. An enduring problem is the difficultly in dating iceberg rafted debris deposits that typically lack foraminifera. Here we present an ultra-high resolution record of methane from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide ice core at unprecedented, continuous temporal resolution from 67.2-9.8 ka BP, which we propose constrains the timing of Heinrich events. Our methane record essentially mirrors Greenland ice core stable isotope variability across D-O events, except during Heinrich stadials 1, 2, 4 and 5. Partway through these stadials only, methane increases abruptly and rapidly, as at the onset of a D-O event but Greenland temperature exhibits no equivalent response. Speleothem records exhibit signatures of drought in the Northern extra-tropics and intensified monsoonal activity over South America at these times. We use a simple heuristic model to propose that cold air temperatures and extensive sea ice in the North, resulting from Heinrich events, caused extreme reorganization of tropical hydroclimate. This involved curtailment of the seasonal northerly migration of tropical rain belts, leading to intensification of rainfall over Southern Hemisphere tropical wetlands, thus allowing production of excess methane relative to a 'normal' Greenland stadial. We note that this mechanism can operate if AMOC is already in a slowed state when a Heinrich event occurs, as paleo-evidence suggests it was. Heinrich events and associated sea ice cover would therefore act to prolong the duration of this AMOC state. Our findings place the big four Heinrich events of Hudson Strait origin

  13. Statistical detection of the mid-Pleistocene transition

    SciTech Connect

    Maasch, K.A. )

    1988-01-01

    Statistical methods have been used to show quantitatively that the transition in mean and variance observed in delta O-18 records during the middle of the Pleistocene was abrupt. By applying these methods to all of the available records spanning the entire Pleistocene, it appears that this jump was global and primarily represents an increase in ice mass. At roughly the same time an abrupt decrease in sea surface temperature also occurred, indicative of sudden global cooling. This kind of evidence suggests a possible bifurcation of the climate system that must be accounted for in a complete explanation of the ice ages. Theoretical models including internal dynamics are capable of exhibiting this kind of rapid transition. 50 refs.

  14. Climate Literacy in the Classroom: Supporting Teachers in the Transition to NGSS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rogers, M. J. B.; Merrill, J.; Harcourt, P.; Petrone, C.; Shea, N.; Mead, H.

    2014-12-01

    Meeting the challenge of climate change will clearly require 'deep learning' - learning that motivates a search for underlying meaning, a willingness to exert the sustained effort needed to understand complex problems, and innovative problem-solving. This type of learning is dependent on the level of the learner's engagement with the material, their intrinsic motivation to learn, intention to understand, and relevance of the material to the learner. Here, we present evidence for deep learning about climate change through a simulation-based role-playing exercise, World Climate. The exercise puts participants into the roles of delegates to the United Nations climate negotiations and asks them to create an international climate deal. They find out the implications of their decisions, according to the best available science, through the same decision-support computer simulation used to provide feedback for the real-world negotiations, C-ROADS. World Climate provides an opportunity for participants have an immersive, social experience in which they learn first-hand about both the social dynamics of climate change decision-making, through role-play, and the dynamics of the climate system, through an interactive computer simulation. Evaluation results so far have shown that the exercise is highly engaging and memorable and that it motivates large majorities of participants (>70%) to take action on climate change. In addition, we have found that it leads to substantial gains in understanding key systems thinking concepts (e.g., the stock-flow behavior of atmospheric CO2), as well as improvements in understanding of climate change causes and impacts. While research is still needed to better understand the impacts of simulation-based role-playing exercises like World Climate on behavior change, long-term understanding, transfer of systems thinking skills across topics, and the importance of social learning during the exercise, our results to date indicate that it is a

  15. Cesarean Delivery for a Life-threatening Preterm Placental Abruption

    PubMed Central

    Okafor, II; Ugwu, EO

    2015-01-01

    Placental abruption is one of the major life-threatening obstetric conditions. The fetomaternal outcome of a severe placental abruption depends largely on prompt maternal resuscitation and delivery. A case of severe preterm placental abruption with intrauterine fetal death. Following a failed induction of labor with a deteriorating maternal condition despite resuscitation, emergency cesarean delivery was offered with good maternal outcome. Cesarean delivery could avert further disease progression and possible maternal death in cases of severe preterm placental abruption where vaginal delivery is not imminent. However, further studies are necessary before this could be recommended for routine clinical practice. PMID:27057388

  16. A GCM study on the mechanism of seasonal abrupt changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Huijun; Zeng, Qingcun

    1994-02-01

    In this paper the observational studies and some related dynamical and numerical researches on seasonal abrupt changes were reviewed first. Then a speculation that the seasonal variation of insolation and the nonlinear dynamic interaction account for the abrupt changes was put forward and was asserted by a set of GCM sensitivity experiments. The results show that the abrupt changes would exist in case that all the earth surface was grass land and there was no topography. However, many factors may have influences on the abrupt changes. Hence this phenomenon is quite complicated and needs further investigations.

  17. Cool Science: Year 2 of Using Children's Artwork about Climate Change to Engage Riders on Mass Transit

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lustick, D. S.; Lohmeier, J.; Chen, R. F.

    2014-12-01

    A team of educators and scientists from the University of Massachusetts Lowell and the University of Massachusetts Boston will report on the second year of an informal science learning research project using mass transit spaces in Lowell, MA. Cool Science (CS) conducts a statewide art competition for K-12 students in the fall challenging them to express climate science understanding through the visual arts. An inter-disciplinary panel of judges evaluates entries and identifies the top 24 works of art. The best six student works of art are then put on public display throughout the spring on the Lowell Regional Transit Authority (LRTA). Displaying student artwork in Out of Home Multi-Media (OHMM) such as bus placards and posters is intended to engage riders with opportunities to learn informally. CS aims to promote and evaluate learning about climate change science among the general public and k-12 students/teachers. The goals of CS are: 1) Engage teachers, students, and parents in a climate change science communication competition. 2) Display the winning 6 artworks from K-12 students throughout the LRTA. 3) Assess the impact of Cool Science on the teaching and learning of climate science in K-12 formal education. 4) Assess the impact of Cool Science artwork on attitudes, awareness, and understanding of climate change among adult bus riders. A naturalistic inquiry employing a mixed methodology approach best describes our research design. The evaluation focuses on providing feedback regarding the potential learning outcomes for the K-12 students who create the media for the project and the general riding public who engage with the student artwork. To identify possible outcomes, data was collected in the several forms: survey, interviews, and online analytics. We see an urgent need to improve both the public's engagement with climate change science and to the profile of climate change science in formal education settings. The Cool Science (CS) project is an opportunity

  18. Instability of glacial climate in a model of the ocean- atmosphere-cryosphere system.

    PubMed

    Schmittner, Andreas; Yoshimori, Masakazu; Weaver, Andrew J

    2002-02-22

    In contrast to the relatively stable climate of the past 10,000 years, during glacial times the North Atlantic region experienced large-amplitude transitions between cold (stadial) and warm (interstadial) states. In this modeling study, we demonstrate that hydrological interactions between the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) and adjacent continental ice sheets can trigger abrupt warming events and also limit the lifetime of the interstadial circulation mode. These interactions have the potential to destabilize the THC, which is already more sensitive for glacial conditions than for the present-day climate, thus providing an explanation for the increased variability of glacial climate. PMID:11823604

  19. Precise Interhemispheric Phasing of the Bipolar Seesaw during Abrupt Dansgaard-Oeschger Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buizert, C.; Baggenstos, D.; Brook, E.; Cuffey, K. M.; Fudge, T. J.; Markle, B. R.; McConnell, J. R.; Rhodes, R.; Severinghaus, J. P.; Sowers, T. A.; Steig, E. J.; Taylor, K.

    2014-12-01

    Late Pleistocene glacial periods exhibit abrupt Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) climatic oscillations, evidence of which is preserved in a variety of northern hemisphere (NH) palaeoclimatic archives. Ice cores show Antarctica is cooling during the warm phases of the Greenland DO cycle and vice versa, suggesting an interhemispheric redistribution of heat through a mechanism dubbed the bipolar seesaw. While it is generally accepted that variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength play an important role, great uncertainty remains regarding the dynamics and trigger of the abrupt events. Key information is contained in the relative phasing of hemispheric climate variations, yet the large and poorly constrained ice age-gas age difference (Dage) in Antarctic ice cores has precluded methane-based synchronization at the required sub-centennial precision. Here we present a new high accumulation deep Antarctic ice core, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS)-Divide core, that is used to resolve the timing of the bipolar seesaw at unprecedented temporal resolution. We find that the abrupt Greenland warming phase leads the corresponding Antarctic cooling by 195 ± 59 years for DO-events, including the Bølling period; Greenland cooling leads the corresponding Antarctic warming by 179 ± 61 years. The centennial NH lead time shows that the abrupt phases of the DO cycle are initiated in the NH, after which the temperature anomaly is propagated to the southern hemisphere (SH) high latitudes via an oceanic teleconnection. The similar phasing of warming and cooling events suggests that to first order the transfer time of the climatic signal is independent of the AMOC background state. Our findings confirm the central role ocean circulation plays in the seesaw, and provide a clear criterion for testing hypotheses and model simulations of DO dynamics.

  20. The Effect of Maternal Thrombophilia on Placental Abruption: Histologic Correlates

    PubMed Central

    Kinzler, Wendy L.; Prasad, Vinay; Ananth, Cande V.

    2011-01-01

    Objective To determine if the histology of placental abruption differs by maternal thrombophilia status. Study design This was a multicenter, case-control study of women with abruption and delivering at ≥20 weeks’ gestation, collected as part of the ongoing New Jersey-Placental Abruption Study. Women were identified by clinical criteria of abruption. Maternal blood was collected postpartum and tested for anticardiolipin antibodies, and mutations in the Factor V Leiden and prothrombin genes. Cases were comprised of women with an abruption and a positive thrombophilia screen. Controls were comprised of women with an abruption and a negative thrombophilia screen. All placental histology was systematically reviewed by two perinatal pathologists, blinded to the abruption status. Results A total of 135 women with placental abruption were identified, of which 63.0% (n=85) had at least one diagnosed maternal thrombophilia. There were increases in the rates of meconium-stained membranes (7.9% versus 2.1%, P=0.015) and decidual necrosis (4.5% versus 2.1%, P=0.023) when a maternal thrombophilia was diagnosed. Although there was no difference in the overall presence of infarcts between the 2 groups (27.0% versus 38.3%, P=0.064), the presence of an old infarct was more common among women with a positive thrombophilia screen (83.3% versus 44.4%, P=0.003). Conclusion Placental abruption with a positive maternal thrombophilia screen is associated with higher rates of old placental infarcts and decidual necrosis compared with abruption when thrombophilia is not diagnosed. These lesions suggest a chronic etiology of placental abruption in the presence of a maternal thrombophilia. PMID:19330709

  1. Abrupt drainage cycles of the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet

    PubMed Central

    Soulet, Guillaume; Ménot, Guillemette; Bayon, Germain; Rostek, Frauke; Ponzevera, Emmanuel; Toucanne, Samuel; Lericolais, Gilles; Bard, Edouard

    2013-01-01

    Continental ice sheets are a key component of the Earth’s climate system, but their internal dynamics need to be further studied. Since the last deglaciation, the northern Eurasian Fennoscandian Ice Sheet (FIS) has been connected to the Black Sea (BS) watershed, making this basin a suitable location to investigate former ice-sheet dynamics. Here, from a core retrieved in the BS, we combine the use of neodymium isotopes, high-resolution elemental analysis, and biomarkers to trace changes in sediment provenance and river runoff. We reveal cyclic releases of meltwater originating from Lake Disna, a proglacial lake linked to the FIS during Heinrich Stadial 1. Regional interactions within the climate–lake–FIS system, linked to changes in the availability of subglacial water, led to abrupt drainage cycles of the FIS into the BS watershed. This phenomenon raised the BS water level by ∼100 m until the sill of the Bosphorus Strait was reached, flooding the vast northwestern BS shelf and deeply affecting the hydrology and circulation of the BS and, probably, of the Marmara and Aegean Seas. PMID:23569264

  2. Going, Going, Gone: Localizing Abrupt Offsets of Moving Objects

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Maus, Gerrit W.; Nijhawan, Romi

    2009-01-01

    When a moving object abruptly disappears, this profoundly influences its localization by the visual system. In Experiment 1, 2 aligned objects moved across the screen, and 1 of them abruptly disappeared. Observers reported seeing the objects misaligned at the time of the offset, with the continuing object leading. Experiment 2 showed that the…

  3. Late Eocene obliquity domination and impact of the Eocene/Oligocene climate transition on central Asian climate at the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiao, Guoqiao; Abels, Hemmo A.; Yao, Zhengquan; Dupont-Nivet, Guillaume; Hilgen, Frederik J.

    2010-05-01

    At the boundary between the Eocene and Oligocene epochs, approximately 34 million years ago (Ma), the Earth experienced a significant change from a greenhouse world to an icehouse world. The present understanding of the triggering mechanisms, processes and environmental effects of this climatic event is mostly based upon ocean sediment records and climatic modeling results. Terrestrial records of the critical interval are rare and, where available, often poorly constrained in time. Here, we present a continuous continental record (Tashan section) from the Xining basin at the northeastern edge of Tibetan Plateau, covering the period between ~35 to 33 Ma. Lithology supplemented with high-resolution magnetic susceptibility (MS), median grain size (MGS) and color reflectance (a*) records show clear Late Eocene basic cyclicity of ~3.5 m in length. Our detailed magnetostratigraphic age model indicates that this cycle was most likely forced by the 41-kyr obliquity cycle driving drier and wetter periods in northern hemisphere Asian interior climates already 1 million year before the Eocene-Oligocene Climate Transition (EOCT). Detailed comparison of the E/O boundary interval in the Tashan section with marine records show that the most pronounced lithofacies change in the Xining Basin corresponds to the first of two widely recognized steps in oxygen isotopes making up the EOCT. This first step is reported to precede the major and second step (base of the Oi-1 phase) by around 0.2 to 0.3 Myr and has recently been suggested to be mainly related to atmospheric cooling rather than ice volume growth.

  4. An abrupt change in the African monsoon at the end of the Younger Dryas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Talbot, Michael R.; Filippi, Maria Letizia; Jensen, Niels Bo; Tiercelin, Jean-Jacques

    2007-03-01

    High-resolution studies of variations in the elemental and stable carbon- and nitrogen-isotope composition of organic matter in cores from Lakes Malawi, Tanganyika, and Bosumtwi (tropical Africa) indicate an abrupt change in the wind-driven circulation of these lakes that, within the limits of available chronologies, was contemporaneous with the end of the Younger Dryas in the northern hemisphere. The change was also coincident with shifts in surface winds recorded in cores from off the west and northeast coasts of Africa. A range of other proxies indicate that these changes in wind regime were accompanied by a marked increase in precipitation in the northern tropics. Africa south of ˜5°-10°S, on the other hand, initially suffered drought conditions. Together, the evidence suggests an abrupt northward translation of the African monsoon system at circa 11.5 ± 0.25 ka B.P. The data assembled here contribute to a growing body of work showing that the Younger Dryas was a major climatic excursion in tropical Africa. Furthermore, they add substance to recent suggestions that climatic events in the southern hemisphere may have played a significant role in the abrupt demise of the Younger Dryas.

  5. Climatology of extratropical transition for North Atlantic tropical cyclones in the high-resolution GFDL climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, M.; Vecchi, G. A.; Smith, J. A.

    2015-12-01

    The extratropical transition (ET) process of tropical cyclones can lead to fundamental changes in hurricane structure and storms that continue to pose large threats to life and properties. Given the importance of ET, it is necessary to understand how ET changes under a warming climate. Towards this goal, the GFDL climate model (FLOR) is first used to understand the current-day ET climatology. The standard model and a flux-adjusted version of FLOR are both used to examine ET climatology. The operational cyclone phase space method is used to define the onset and completion times of ET. The ET climatology from the climate model is compared with those from two reanalysis data sets ranging from 1979 to 2012. Both models exhibit good skills at simulating the frequency map of phase space diagram. The flux-adjusted version shows much better skill in capturing the ET climatology in terms of ET track patterns, ET locations and monthly ET variations. The model is able to simulate the frequency ratio of reintensified tropical cyclones from all ET cases. Future work involves examining changes in the ET climatology under a changing climate.

  6. Noise-induced generation of saw-tooth type transitions between climate attractors and stochastic excitability of paleoclimate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alexandrov, Dmitri V.; Bashkirtseva, Irina A.; Ryashko, Lev B.

    2015-11-01

    Motivated by important paleoclimate applications we study a three dimensional model of the Quaternary climatic variations in the presence of stochastic forcing. It is shown that the deterministic system exhibits a limit cycle and two stable system equilibria. We demonstrate that the closer paleoclimate system to its bifurcation points (lying either in its monostable or bistable zone) the smaller noise generates small or large amplitude stochastic oscillations, respectively. In the bistable zone with two stable equilibria, noise induces a complex multimodal stochastic regime with intermittency of small and large amplitude stochastic fluctuations. In the monostable zone, the small amplitude stochastic oscillations localized in the vicinity of unstable equilibrium appear along with the large amplitude oscillations near the stable limit cycle. For the analysis of these noise-induced effects, we develop the stochastic sensitivity technique and use the Mahalanobis metric in the three-dimensional case. To approximate the distribution of random trajectories in Poincare sections, we use a method of confidence ellipses. A spatial configuration of these ellipses is defined by the stochastic sensitivity and noise intensity. The glaciation/deglaciation transitions going between two polar Earth's states with the warm and cold climate become easier and quicker with increasing the noise intensity. Our stochastic analysis demonstrates a near 100 ky saw-tooth type climate self fluctuations known from paleoclimate records. In addition, the enhancement of noise intensity blurs the sharp climate cycles and reduces the glaciation-deglaciation periods of the Earth's paleoclimate.

  7. Terrestrial responses of low-latitude Asia to the Eocene-Oligocene climate transition revealed by integrated chronostratigraphy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Y. X.; Jiao, W. J.; Liu, Z. H.; Jin, J. H.; Wang, D. H.; He, Y. X.; Quan, C.

    2016-02-01

    The Paleogene sedimentary records from southern China hold important clues to the impacts of the Cenozoic climate changes on low latitudes. However, although there are extensive Paleogene terrestrial archives and some contain abundant fossils in this region, few are accurately dated or have a temporal resolution adequate to decipher climate changes. Here, we present a detailed stratigraphic and paleomagnetic study of a fossiliferous late Paleogene succession in the Maoming Basin, Guangdong Province. The succession consists of oil shale of the Youganwo Formation (Fm) in the lower part and the overlying sandstone-dominated Huangniuling Fm in the upper part. Fossil records indicate that the age of the succession possibly spans the late Eocene to the Oligocene. Both the Youganwo Fm and the overlying Huangniuling Fm exhibit striking sedimentary rhythms, and spectral analysis of the depth series of magnetic susceptibility of the Youganwo Fm reveals dominant sedimentary cycles at orbital frequency bands. The transition from the Youganwo oil shale to the overlying Huangniuling sandstones is conformable and represents a major depositional environmental change from a lacustrine to a deltaic environment. Integrating the magnetostratigraphic, lithologic, and fossil data allows establishing a substantially refined chronostratigraphic framework that places the major depositional environmental change at 33.88 Ma, coinciding with the Eocene-Oligocene climate transition (EOT) at ˜ 33.7 to ˜ 33.9 Ma. We suggest that the transition from a lacustrine to deltaic environment in the Maoming Basin represents terrestrial responses to the EOT and indicates prevailing drying conditions in low-latitude regions during the global cooling at EOT.

  8. Staggering Changes in Mediterranean Sea Surface Temperatures Coincide with Global Climate and Evolution Transitions during the Late Miocene - Pliocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tzanova, A.; Herbert, T.; Peterson, L.

    2012-12-01

    The Late Miocene warmer-than-modern Earth is a time of important transitions such as the C3/C4 photosynthesis transition, the appearance of the Sahara and the hominin evolution. The interconnections and drivers for climate and evolutionary change during this time, such as pCO2, albedo, vegetation and temperatures, are still speculative. The causal relationships can be better understood via paleoproxy records from sensitive to climate shifts areas such as the Mediterranean Sea. The Mediterranean Sea is a largely enclosed mid-latitude basin on the cusp of the subtropical climate zone formed after the closure of the Tethys. The enclosed nature of the Mediterranean Sea makes it sensitive to continental climate and shifts in climate zones with the advantage of resolution, preservation and detail usually reserved for marine records Here we present a continuous 30 kyr resolution, sea surface temperature (SST) record for the Mediterranean Sea (Late Miocene - Pliocene) from the well-dated, uplifted marine sequences of Monte dei Corvi in Northern Italy and Rosello in Sicily, Italy. The Late Miocene portion of the record is from the pelagic, uplifted Monte dei Corvi land section. The data from two organic paleothermometers UK'37 and TEX86, establish the Mediterranean Sea as notably warmer than present. SSTs were equivalent and even higher than the warmest parts of the modern ocean. For the oldest samples, ~ 12.9 Ma to ~8.1 Ma, UK'37 derived temperatures hovered close to 28oC and possibly even higher. A distinct cooling trend takes over starting at ~8.1 Ma and superimposed upon it are prominent, high variability, cold episodes lasting from ~7 Ma to 6 Ma. During these extreme episodes, reconstructed SSTs reach values comparable the modern eastern Mediterranean annual average SST of 19.5oC. The variability during this colder period is substantial, with temperature swings of as much as ~6-8 oC over 40 kyr. Continuous pelagic sedimentation resumes after the Messinian Salinity

  9. Perceived School Climate across the Transition from Elementary to Middle School

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Madjar, Nir; Cohen-Malayev, Maya

    2016-01-01

    The implications of the transition from elementary to middle school are of major concern for educators and researchers worldwide. Previous studies have yielded ambiguous findings; some have indicated negative outcomes of school transition, whereas others have demonstrated null or even positive effects. The aim of the current research was to…

  10. Globally synchronous ice core volcanic tracers and abrupt cooling during the last glacial period

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bay, R.C.; Bramall, N.E.; Price, P.B.; Clow, G.D.; Hawley, R.L.; Udisti, R.; Castellano, E.

    2006-01-01

    We perform a Monte Carlo pattern recognition analysis of the coincidence between three regional volcanic histories from ice coring of Greenland and Antarctica over the period 2 to 45 ka, using SO4 anomalies in Greenland and East Antarctica determined by continuous core chemistry, together with West Antarctic volcanic ash layers determined by remote optical borehole logging and core assays. We find that the Antarctic record of volcanism correlates with Glacial abrupt climate change at a 95% to >99.8% (???3??) significance level and that volcanic depositions at the three locations match at levels exceeding 3??, likely indicating that many common horizons represent single eruptive events which dispersed material world wide. These globally coincident volcanics were associated with abrupt cooling, often simultaneous with onsets or sudden intensifications of millennial cold periods. The striking agreement between sites implies that the consistency of current timescales obtained by isotopic and glaciological dating methods is better than estimated. Copyright 2006 by the American Geogphysical Union.

  11. A study of the early warning signals of abrupt change in the Pacific decadal oscillation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Hao; Hou, Wei; Yan, Peng-Cheng; Zhang, Zhi-Sen; Wang, Kuo

    2015-08-01

    In recent years, the phenomenon of a critical slowing down has demonstrated its major potential in discovering whether a complex dynamic system tends to abruptly change at critical points. This research on the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) index has been made on the basis of the critical slowing down principle in order to analyze its early warning signal of abrupt change. The chaotic characteristics of the PDO index sequence at different times are determined by using the largest Lyapunov exponent (LLE). The relationship between the regional sea surface temperature (SST) background field and the early warning signal of the PDO abrupt change is further studied through calculating the variance of the SST in the PDO region and the spatial distribution of the autocorrelation coefficient, thereby providing the experimental foundation for the extensive application of the method of the critical slowing down phenomenon. Our results show that the phenomenon of critical slowing down, such as the increase of the variance and autocorrelation coefficient, will continue for six years before the abrupt change of the PDO index. This phenomenon of the critical slowing down can be regarded as one of the early warning signals of an abrupt change. Through calculating the LLE of the PDO index during different times, it is also found that the strongest chaotic characteristics of the system occurred between 1971 and 1975 in the early stages of an abrupt change (1976), and the system was at the stage of a critical slowing down, which proves the reliability of the early warning signal of abrupt change discovered in 1970 from the mechanism. In addition, the variance of the SST, along with the spatial distribution of the autocorrelation coefficient in the corresponding PDO region, also demonstrates the corresponding relationship between the change of the background field of the SST and the change of the PDO. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos

  12. Noachian-Hesperian Transition and a Possible Climatic Optimum: Evidence from Landforms

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moore, J. M.; Howard, A. D.

    2004-01-01

    A climatic optimum? The often strong contrast between the pristine and degraded Noachian channels and craters might be due to a gradual climatic change superimposed upon an episode of mantling associated with early Hesperian volcanism. On the other hand, one or more episodes of volcanism or large impacts could have induced global warming and produced a relatively short-lived optimum for precipitation and runoff. The rapid cutoff of fluvial activity following the development of the later pristine fluvial features is consistent with this scenario. We discuss the changing style of erosion in the highlands during the Noachian and early Hesperian in a companion abstract to this workshop. Here we review the some of the morphologic evidence for a possible Noachian-Hesperian (N-H) climate optimum.

  13. Characterizing abrupt changes in the stock prices using a wavelet decomposition method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caetano, Marco Antonio Leonel; Yoneyama, Takashi

    2007-09-01

    Abrupt changes in the stock prices, either upwards or downwards, are usually preceded by an oscillatory behavior with frequencies that tend to increase as the moment of transition becomes closer. The wavelet decomposition methods may be useful for analysis of this oscillations with varying frequencies, because they provide simultaneous information on the frequency (scale) and localization in time (translation). However, in order to use the wavelet decomposition, certain requirements have to be satisfied, so that the linear and cyclic trends are eliminated by standard least squares techniques. The coefficients obtained by the wavelet decomposition can be represented in a graphical form. A threshold can then be established to characterize the likelihood of a short-time abrupt change in the stock prices. Actual data from the São Paulo Stock Exchange (Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo) were used in this work to illustrate the proposed method.

  14. Percolation Features on Climate Network under Attacks of El Niño Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lu, Z.

    2015-12-01

    Percolation theory under different attacks is one of the main research areas in complex networks but never be applied to investigate climate network. In this study, for the first time we construct a climate network of surface air temperature field to analyze its percolation features. Here, we regard El Niño event as a kind of naturally attacks generated from Pacific Ocean to attack its upper climate network. We find that El Niño event leads an abrupt percolation phase transition to the climate network which makes it splitting and unstable suddenly. Comparing the results of the climate network under three different forms of attacks, including most connected attack (MA), localized attack (LA) and random attack (RA) respectively, it is found that both MA and LA lead first-order transition and RA leads second-order transition to the climate network. Furthermore, we find that most real attacks consist of all these three forms of attacks. With El Niño event emerging, the ratios of LA and MA increase and dominate the style of attack while RA decreasing. It means the percolation phase transition due to El Niño events is close to first-order transition mostly affected by LA and MA. Our research may help us further understand two questions from perspective of percolation on network: (1) Why not all warming in Pacific Ocean but El Niño events could affect the climate. (2) Why the climate affected by El Niño events changes abruptly.

  15. Paleoecological evidence for abrupt cold reversals during peak Holocene warmth on Baffin Island, Arctic Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Axford, Yarrow; Briner, Jason P.; Miller, Gifford H.; Francis, Donna R.

    2009-03-01

    A continuous record of insect (Chironomidae) remains preserved in lake sediments is used to infer temperature changes at a small lake in Arctic Canada through the Holocene. Early Holocene summers at the study site were characterized by more thermophilous assemblages and warmer inferred temperatures than today, presumably in response to the positive anomaly in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. Peak early Holocene warmth was interrupted by two cold reversals between 9.5 and 8 cal ka BP, during which multiple cold-stenothermous chironomid taxa appeared in the lake. The earlier reversal appears to correlate with widespread climate anomalies around 9.2 cal ka BP; the age of the younger reversal is equivocal but it may correlate with the 8.2 cal ka BP cold event documented elsewhere. Widespread, abrupt climate shifts in the early Holocene illustrate the susceptibility of the climate system to perturbations, even during periods of enhanced warmth in the Northern Hemisphere.

  16. Indian monsoon variations during three contrasting climatic periods: The Holocene, Heinrich Stadial 2 and the last interglacial-glacial transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zorzi, Coralie; Sanchez Goñi, Maria Fernanda; Anupama, Krishnamurthy; Prasad, Srinivasan; Hanquiez, Vincent; Johnson, Joel; Giosan, Liviu

    2015-10-01

    In contrast to the East Asian and African monsoons the Indian monsoon is still poorly documented throughout the last climatic cycle (last 135,000 years). Pollen analysis from two marine sediment cores (NGHP-01-16A and NGHP-01-19B) collected from the offshore Godavari and Mahanadi basins, both located in the Core Monsoon Zone (CMZ) reveals changes in Indian summer monsoon variability and intensity during three contrasting climatic periods: the Holocene, the Heinrich Stadial (HS) 2 and the Marine Isotopic Stage (MIS) 5/4 during the ice sheet growth transition. During the first part of the Holocene between 11,300 and 4200 cal years BP, characterized by high insolation (minimum precession, maximum obliquity), the maximum extension of the coastal forest and mangrove reflects high monsoon rainfall. This climatic regime contrasts with that of the second phase of the Holocene, from 4200 cal years BP to the present, marked by the development of drier vegetation in a context of low insolation (maximum precession, minimum obliquity). The historical period in India is characterized by an alternation of strong and weak monsoon centennial phases that may reflect the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, respectively. During the HS 2, a period of low insolation and extensive iceberg discharge in the North Atlantic Ocean, vegetation was dominated by grassland and dry flora indicating pronounced aridity as the result of a weak Indian summer monsoon. The MIS 5/4 glaciation, also associated with low insolation but moderate freshwater fluxes, was characterized by a weaker reduction of the Indian summer monsoon and a decrease of seasonal contrast as recorded by the expansion of dry vegetation and the development of Artemisia, respectively. Our results support model predictions suggesting that insolation changes control the long term trend of the Indian monsoon precipitation, but its millennial scale variability and intensity are instead modulated by atmospheric

  17. Indian monsoon variations during three contrasting climatic periods: the Holocene, Heinrich Stadial 2 and the last interglacial-glacial transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zorzi, Coralie; Fernanda Sanchez Goñi, Maria; Anupama, Krishnamurthy; Prasad, Srinivasan; Hanquiez, Vincent; Johnson, Joel; Giosan, Liviu

    2016-04-01

    In contrast to the East Asian and African monsoons the Indian monsoon is still poorly documented throughout the last climatic cycle (last 135,000 years). Pollen analysis from two marine sediment cores (NGHP-01-16A and NGHP-01-19B) collected from the offshore Godavari and Mahanadi basins, both located in the Core Monsoon Zone (CMZ) reveals changes in Indian summer monsoon variability and intensity during three contrasting climatic periods: the Holocene, the Heinrich Stadial (HS) 2 and the Marine Isotopic Stage (MIS) 5/4 during the ice sheet growth transition. During the first part of the Holocene between 11,300 and 4,200 cal years BP, characterized by high insolation (minimum precession, maximum obliquity), the maximum extension of the coastal forest and mangrove reflects high monsoon rainfall. This climatic regime contrasts with that of the second phase of the Holocene, from 4,200 cal years BP to the present, marked by the development of drier vegetation in a context of low insolation (maximum precession, minimum obliquity). The historical period in India is characterized by an alternation of strong and weak monsoon centennial phases that may reflect the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, respectively. During the HS 2, a period of low insolation and extensive iceberg discharge in the North Atlantic Ocean, vegetation was dominated by grassland and dry flora indicating pronounced aridity as the result of a weak Indian summer monsoon. The MIS 5/4 glaciation, also associated with low insolation but moderate freshwater fluxes, was characterized by a weaker reduction of the Indian summer monsoon and a decrease of seasonal contrast as recorded by the expansion of dry vegetation and the development of Artemisia, respectively. Our results support model predictions suggesting that insolation changes control the long term trend of the Indian monsoon precipitation, but its millennial scale variability and intensity are instead modulated by atmospheric

  18. Arctic climate tipping points.

    PubMed

    Lenton, Timothy M

    2012-02-01

    There is widespread concern that anthropogenic global warming will trigger Arctic climate tipping points. The Arctic has a long history of natural, abrupt climate changes, which together with current observations and model projections, can help us to identify which parts of the Arctic climate system might pass future tipping points. Here the climate tipping points are defined, noting that not all of them involve bifurcations leading to irreversible change. Past abrupt climate changes in the Arctic are briefly reviewed. Then, the current behaviour of a range of Arctic systems is summarised. Looking ahead, a range of potential tipping phenomena are described. This leads to a revised and expanded list of potential Arctic climate tipping elements, whose likelihood is assessed, in terms of how much warming will be required to tip them. Finally, the available responses are considered, especially the prospects for avoiding Arctic climate tipping points. PMID:22270703

  19. Status Cataplecticus Precipitated by Abrupt Withdrawal of Venlafaxine

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Janice; Greenberg, Harly

    2013-01-01

    Status cataplecticus is a rare manifestation of narcolepsy with cataplexy episodes recurring for hours or days, without a refractory period, in the absence of emotional triggers. This case highlights a narcoleptic patient who developed status cataplecticus after abrupt withdrawal of venlafaxine. Citation: Wang J; Greenberg H. Status cataplecticus precipitated by abrupt withdrawal of venlafaxine. J Clin Sleep Med 2013;9(7):715-716. PMID:23853567

  20. Modeling Abrupt Change in Global Sea Level Arising from Ocean - Ice-Sheet Interaction

    SciTech Connect

    Holland, David M

    2011-09-24

    It is proposed to develop, validate, and apply a coupled ocean ice-sheet model to simulate possible, abrupt future change in global sea level. This research is to be carried out collaboratively between an academic institute and a Department of Energy Laboratory (DOE), namely, the PI and a graduate student at New York University (NYU) and climate model researchers at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The NYU contribution is mainly in the area of incorporating new physical processes into the model, while the LANL efforts are focused on improved numerics and overall model development. NYU and LANL will work together on applying the model to a variety of modeling scenarios of recent past and possible near-future abrupt change to the configuration of the periphery of the major ice sheets. The project's ultimate goal is to provide a robust, accurate prediction of future global sea level change, a feat that no fully-coupled climate model is currently capable of producing. This proposal seeks to advance that ultimate goal by developing, validating, and applying a regional model that can simulate the detailed processes involved in sea-level change due to ocean ice-sheet interaction. Directly modeling ocean ice-sheet processes in a fully-coupled global climate model is not a feasible activity at present given the near-complete absence of development of any such causal mechanism in these models to date.

  1. Abrupt change of flow pattern in baroclinic atmosphere forced by joint effects of diabatic heating and orography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luo, Zhexian

    1987-05-01

    Based on the catastrophic theory, the possible causes of abrupt change in the atmospheric circulation over the Northern Hemisphere during June and October have been explored by Li and Luo (1983) and Miao and Ding (1985). However these studies are confined to the barotropic atmosphere without consideration of orography. The purpose of this paper is to further study the physical mechanism of the abrupt change of flow pattern within the baroclinic atmosphere in the presence of orography. Results show that the abrupt change of flow pattern can be stimulated by the gradual variation of a diabatically heating parameter, which is similar to the observed fact about the rapid shift of position of the subtropical high center in the upper troposphere along the zonal direction during seasonal transition from the summer half year to the winter one.

  2. The climate of HD 189733b from fourteen transits and eclipses measured by Spitzer

    SciTech Connect

    Agol, E.; Cowan, Nicolas B.; Knutson, Heather A.; Deming, Drake; Steffen, Jason H.; Henry, Gregory W.; Charbonneau, David; /Harvard-Smithsonian Ctr. Astrophys.

    2010-07-01

    We present observations of six transits and six eclipses of the transiting planet system HD 189733 taken with the Spitzer Space Telescope IRAC camera at 8 microns, as well as a re-analysis of previously published data. We use several novel techniques in our data analysis, the most important of which is a new correction for the detector 'ramp' variation with a double-exponential function which performs better and is a better physical model for this detector variation. Our main scientific findings are: (1) an upper limit on the variability of the day-side planet flux of 2.7% (68% confidence); (2) the most precise set of transit times measured for a transiting planet, with an average accuracy of 3 seconds; (3) a lack of transit-timing variations, excluding the presence of second planets in this system above 20% of the mass of Mars in low-order mean-motion resonance at 95% confidence; (4) a confirmation of the planet's phase variation, finding the night side is 64% as bright as the day side, as well as an upper limit on the night-side variability of 17% (68% confidence); (5) a better correction for stellar variability at 8 micron causing the phase function to peak 3.5 hours before secondary eclipse, confirming that the advection and radiation timescales are comparable at the 8 micron photosphere; (6) variation in the depth of transit, which possibly implies variations in the surface brightness of the portion of the star occulted by the planet, posing a fundamental limit on non-simultaneous multi-wavelength transit absorption measurements of planet atmospheres; (7) a measurement of the infrared limb-darkening of the star, which is in good agreement with stellar atmosphere models; (8) an offset in the times of secondary eclipse of 69 seconds, which is mostly accounted for by a 31 second light travel time delay and 33 second delay due to the shift of ingress and egress by the planet hot spot; this confirms that the phase variation is due to an offset hot spot on the

  3. Multiple equilibria, natural variability, and climate transitions in an idealized ocean-atmosphere model

    SciTech Connect

    Saravanan, R.; McWilliams, J.C.

    1995-10-01

    An idealized coupled ocean-atmosphere is constructed to study climatic equilibria and variability. The model focuses on the role of large-scale fluid motions in the climate system. The atmospheric component is an eddy-resolving two-level global primitive equation model with simplified physical parameterizations. The oceanic component is a zonally averaged sector model of the thermohaline circulation. The two components exchange heat and freshwater fluxes synchonously. Coupled integrations are carried out over periods of several centuries to identify the equilibrium states of the ocean-atmosphere system. It is shown that there exist at least three types of equilibria, which are distinguished by whether they have upwelling or downwelling in the polar regions. Each oceanic circulation in the coupled model exhibits natural variability on interdecadal and longer timescales. The dominant interdecadal mode of variability is associated with the advection of oceanic temperature anomalies in the sinking regions. The sensitivity of the coupled model to climatic perturbations is studied. A rapid increase in the greenhouse gas concentrations leads to a collapse of the meridional overtuning in the ocean. Introduction of a large positive surface freshwater anomaly in the high latitudes leads to a temporary suppression of the sinking motion, followed by a rapid recovery, due primarily to the high latitude cooling associated with the reduction of oceanic heat transport. In this evolution, the secondary roles played by the atmospheric heat transport and moisture transport in destablizing the thermohaline circulation are compared, and the former is found to be dominant.

  4. Relative timing of deglacial climate events in Antarctica and Greenland.

    PubMed

    Morgan, Vin; Delmotte, Marc; van Ommen, Tas; Jouzel, Jean; Chappellaz, Jérôme; Woon, Suenor; Masson-Delmotte, Valérie; Raynaud, Dominique

    2002-09-13

    The last deglaciation was marked by large, hemispheric, millennial-scale climate variations: the Bølling-Allerød and Younger Dryas periods in the north, and the Antarctic Cold Reversal in the south. A chronology from the high-accumulation Law Dome East Antarctic ice core constrains the relative timing of these two events and provides strong evidence that the cooling at the start of the Antarctic Cold Reversal did not follow the abrupt warming during the northern Bølling transition around 14,500 years ago. This result suggests that southern changes are not a direct response to abrupt changes in North Atlantic thermohaline circulation, as is assumed in the conventional picture of a hemispheric temperature seesaw. PMID:12228715

  5. Late Glacial-Holocene climatic transition record at the Argentinian Andean piedmont between 33-34° S

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mehl, A. E.; Zárate, M. A.

    2013-10-01

    The Arroyo La Estacada (~33°28' S, 69°02' W), eastern Andean piedmont of Argentina, cuts through an extensive piedmont aggradational unit composed of a dominant late Pleistocene-early Holocene (LP-EH) alluvial sequence including several paleosols. The arroyo sedimentary record exhibits a paleosol developed affecting the topmost part of likely Lateglacial aeolian deposits aggraded into a floodplain environment by the end of the late Pleistocene. The paleosol shows variable grade of development in the outcrops along the arroyo probably in relation to fluvial valley paleotopography. Organic matter humification, carbonate accumulation and redox processes were the dominant processes associated with paleosol formation. By the early Holocene, when the formation of the paleosol ended, alluvial aggradation renewed and a higher frequency of flooding events could have affected the arroyo's floodplain environment. A period of relative landscape stability in the Arroyo La Estacada basin is inferred from the paleosol developed by the LP-EH transition in response to a climatic amelioration in the Andes cordillera piedmont after the Late Glacial arid conditions. The renewal of early Holocene alluvial aggradation was probably influenced by the South American Monsoon and resulted in a change in the sedimentary dynamics of the arroyo. The analyzed Late Glacial-Holocene alluvial record of the Andean piedmont constitutes a suitable record of the LP-EH climatic transition at the extra Andean region of Argentina. It is in agreement with regional paleoclimatic evidence along the southern tip of the South American continent, where other sedimentary sequences record similar late Quaternary paleoenvironmental changes over both fluvial and interfluvial areas.

  6. The impact of climate change on large mammal distribution and extinction: Evidence from the last glacial/interglacial transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lister, Adrian M.; Stuart, Anthony J.

    2008-09-01

    The last major global revolution of climate was the transition from the last glacial stage to the present interglacial, ca. 25-10 ka. Vegetational belts and mammalian communities underwent major reorganisation. New radiocarbon data show that the complex series of climatic changes affected the ranges of mammalian species dramatically, but in differing ways related to the ecologies of individual species. For species that ultimately went extinct, the reduction in range was a prolonged and geographically complex process taking thousands or tens of thousands of years. Recent genetic studies using ancient DNA show that this process was often accompanied by loss of genetic variation and, presumably, adaptive flexibility. Even so, some species survived for thousands of years in small, terminal refugia before finally becoming extinct - a pattern akin to the 'extinction lag' or 'extinction debt' posited for endangered modern taxa. Whether refugial species can survive to re-expand into new areas, especially in anthropogenically disturbed environments, is determined by a complex of factors and is not inevitable.

  7. Coupling of CO2 and ice sheet stability over major climate transitions of the last 20 million years.

    PubMed

    Tripati, Aradhna K; Roberts, Christopher D; Eagle, Robert A

    2009-12-01

    The carbon dioxide (CO2) content of the atmosphere has varied cyclically between approximately 180 and approximately 280 parts per million by volume over the past 800,000 years, closely coupled with temperature and sea level. For earlier periods in Earth's history, the partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) is much less certain, and the relation between pCO2 and climate remains poorly constrained. We use boron/calcium ratios in foraminifera to estimate pCO2 during major climate transitions of the past 20 million years. During the Middle Miocene, when temperatures were approximately 3 degrees to 6 degrees C warmer and sea level was 25 to 40 meters higher than at present, pCO2 appears to have been similar to modern levels. Decreases in pCO(2) were apparently synchronous with major episodes of glacial expansion during the Middle Miocene (approximately 14 to 10 million years ago) and Late Pliocene (approximately 3.3 to 2.4 million years ago). PMID:19815724

  8. Transitions or turnovers? Climatically-forced extinctions of Homo sapiens and Neanderthals in the east Mediterranean Levant

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shea, John J.

    2008-11-01

    The East Mediterranean Levant is a focal point for debate about evolutionary continuity among Late Pleistocene hominin populations. Changes in the Levantine Middle and Upper Palaeolithic archaeological records are almost invariably described in terms of adaptive shifts and behavioural transitions, rather than as changes in hominin populations. This paper examines evidence for hominin evolutionary continuity in the Levant between 130 and 25 ka. Two inflection points, one within the Middle Palaeolithic ca 75 ka and the other between the Middle and Upper Palaeolithic ca 45 ka, are examined in light of recently-discovered evidence for rapid climate change and environmental deterioration. It is proposed that both periods mark regional extinctions and turnovers of hominin populations. The first of these occurred among early Homo sapiens, the second among Neanderthals. Each event was followed by dispersal of hominin populations into the Levant from adjacent regions. Differences in Middle vs. Upper Palaeolithic Homo sapiens' long-term success in the Levant may reflect recently-evolved strategies for coping with rapid climate change and with colder arid habitats.

  9. Marine biological productivity and carbon cycling during the Oligocene to Miocene climate transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Billups, K.; Diester-Haass, L.; Emeis, K.

    2009-12-01

    The Oligocene to Miocene boundary marks one of the major Cenozoic cooling steps. A corresponding but slightly out of phase δ13C maximum has been attributed to increased organic matter burial associated with global climate cooling (e.g., Zachos et al., 2001). To test this idea we have constructed records of marine biological productivity (based on benthic foraminiferal accumulation rates, BFAR) and sequestration of total organic carbon (TOC) in pelagic sediments to parallel the stable isotope records from 20-25 Ma. Here we present first results from Ceara Rise Site 926 located in the tropical northwestern Atlantic. Our data show that the δ18O/δ13C maximum that characterized the Oligocene/Miocene boundary is accompanied by a pronounced maximum in BFAR derived paleoproductivity. In addition, there are longer term variations in paleoproductivity that follow the well established eccentricity-scale variations in the δ18O and δ13C record. Cross-spectral analysis focusing on the Oligocene/Miocene boundary interval (22-24 Ma), for which we have an average sampling resolution of about 10 kyr, verifies that paleoproductivity is coherent with the stable isotope records above the 80% level. These results support the hypothesis that there is a relationship between global climate cooling and the carbon cycle via marine primary productivity.

  10. Flow Regime Study in a High Density Circulating Fluidized Bed Riser with an Abrupt Exit

    SciTech Connect

    Mei, J.S.; Shadle, L.J.; Yue, P.C.; Monazam, E.R.

    2007-01-01

    Flow regime study was conducted in a 0.3 m diameter, 15.5 m height circulating fluidized bed (CFB) riser with an abrupt exit at the National Energy Technology Laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy. Local particle velocities were measured at various radial positions and riser heights using an optical fiber probe. On-line measurement of solid circulating rate was continuously recorded by the Spiral. Glass beads of mean diameter 61 μm and particle density of 2,500 kg/m3 were used as bed material. The CFB riser was operated at various superficial gas velocities ranging from 3 to 7.6 m/s and solid mass flux from 20 to 550 kg/m2-s. At a constant riser gas velocity, transition from fast fluidization to dense suspension upflow (DSU) regime started at the bottom of the riser with increasing solid flux. Except at comparatively low riser gas velocity and solid flux, the apparent solid holdup at the top exit region was higher than the middle section of the riser. The solid fraction at this top region could be much higher than 7% under high riser gas velocity and solid mass flux. The local particle velocity showed downward flow near the wall at the top of the riser due to its abrupt exit. This abrupt geometry reflected the solids and, therefore, caused solid particles traveling downward along the wall. However, at location below, but near, the top of the riser the local particle velocities were observed flowing upward at the wall. Therefore, DSU was identified in the upper region of the riser with an abrupt exit while the fully developed region, lower in the riser, was still exhibiting core-annular flow structure. Our data were compared with the flow regime boundaries proposed by Kim et al. [1] for distinguishing the dilute pneumatic transport, fast fluidization, and DSU.

  11. ON THE PROBABLE EXISTENCE OF AN ABRUPT MAGNETIZATION IN THE UPPER CHROMOSPHERE OF THE QUIET SUN

    SciTech Connect

    Stepan, JirI; Trujillo Bueno, Javier E-mail: jtb@iac.es

    2010-03-10

    We report on a detailed radiative transfer modeling of the observed scattering polarization in the H{alpha} line, which allows us to infer quantitative information on the magnetization of the quiet solar chromosphere. Our analysis suggests the presence of a magnetic complexity zone with a mean field strength (B) > 30 G lying just below the sudden transition region to the coronal temperatures. The chromospheric plasma directly underneath is very weakly magnetized, with (B) {approx} 1 G. The possible existence of this abrupt change in the degree of magnetization of the upper chromosphere of the quiet Sun might have large significance for our understanding of chromospheric (and, therefore, coronal) heating.

  12. Abrupt variations of Indian and East Asian summer monsoons during the last deglacial stadial and interstadial

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hong, Bing; Hong, Yetang; Uchida, Masao; Shibata, Yasuyuki; Cai, Cheng; Peng, Haijun; Zhu, Yongxuan; Wang, Yu; Yuan, Linggui

    2014-08-01

    The phase relationship between the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) during the last deglaciation remains controversial. Here, we reconstruct a 15,000-year plant cellulose δ13C proxy record for the ISM from the Yuexi peat bog in southwestern China. The record shows that the ISM abruptly decreases during the Younger Dryas (YD) stadial and abruptly increases during the Bølling-Allerød (BA) interstadial. A comparison of the Yuexi record with other related proxy climate records reveals two types of phenomena. First, the strengths of the two Asian monsoons are inversely related during the YD stadial, i.e., the ISM strength decreases and the EASM increases. During this period, the southern Chinese mainland consisted of a wide arid zone while the northern Chinese mainland was much wetter. The arid zone in southern China resulted from two different types of monsoon processes: the abnormal northward extension of the EASM rain belt, leading to less rainfall in southeast China, or an illusion that the EASM weakened. The other process is a real weakening of the ISM. Second, during the BA interstadial, the strengths of both the ISM and EASM clearly increased. However, the maximum strengths appear to have occurred in the Allerød period. During this period, the entire Chinese mainland, both northern and southern, experienced wet conditions. The abnormal climate pattern of wet in the north and dry in the south during the YD stadial occurs because of the combined effects of the strengthened EASM, intensified westerlies, and weakened ISM, which could be attributed to the response to the abrupt cooling in the high northern latitudes and to the El Niño-like activity in the equatorial Pacific. The widespread wet climate during the BA interstadial may be related to an abrupt increase in the greenhouse gases (GHGs) concentrations in the atmosphere and to the La Niña-like activity in the equatorial Pacific. These results contribute to a better

  13. Antarctic Ice Sheet variability across the Eocene-Oligocene boundary climate transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galeotti, Simone; DeConto, Robert; Naish, Timothy; Stocchi, Paolo; Florindo, Fabio; Pagani, Mark; Barrett, Peter; Bohaty, Steven M.; Lanci, Luca; Pollard, David; Sandroni, Sonia; Talarico, Franco M.; Zachos, James C.

    2016-04-01

    About 34 million years ago, Earth’s climate cooled and an ice sheet formed on Antarctica as atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) fell below ~750 parts per million (ppm). Sedimentary cycles from a drillcore in the western Ross Sea provide direct evidence of orbitally controlled glacial cycles between 34 million and 31 million years ago. Initially, under atmospheric CO2 levels of ≥600 ppm, a smaller Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS), restricted to the terrestrial continent, was highly responsive to local insolation forcing. A more stable, continental-scale ice sheet calving at the coastline did not form until ~32.8 million years ago, coincident with the earliest time that atmospheric CO2 levels fell below ~600 ppm. Our results provide insight into the potential of the AIS for threshold behavior and have implications for its sensitivity to atmospheric CO2 concentrations above present-day levels.

  14. Antarctic Ice Sheet variability across the Eocene-Oligocene boundary climate transition.

    PubMed

    Galeotti, Simone; DeConto, Robert; Naish, Timothy; Stocchi, Paolo; Florindo, Fabio; Pagani, Mark; Barrett, Peter; Bohaty, Steven M; Lanci, Luca; Pollard, David; Sandroni, Sonia; Talarico, Franco M; Zachos, James C

    2016-04-01

    About 34 million years ago, Earth's climate cooled and an ice sheet formed on Antarctica as atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) fell below ~750 parts per million (ppm). Sedimentary cycles from a drill core in the western Ross Sea provide direct evidence of orbitally controlled glacial cycles between 34 million and 31 million years ago. Initially, under atmospheric CO2 levels of ≥600 ppm, a smaller Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS), restricted to the terrestrial continent, was highly responsive to local insolation forcing. A more stable, continental-scale ice sheet calving at the coastline did not form until ~32.8 million years ago, coincident with the earliest time that atmospheric CO2 levels fell below ~600 ppm. Our results provide insight into the potential of the AIS for threshold behavior and have implications for its sensitivity to atmospheric CO2 concentrations above present-day levels. PMID:27034370

  15. Antarctic climate signature in the Greenland ice core record

    PubMed Central

    Barker, Stephen; Knorr, Gregor

    2007-01-01

    A numerical algorithm is applied to the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2) dust record from Greenland to remove the abrupt changes in dust flux associated with the Dansgaard–Oeschger (D–O) oscillations of the last glacial period. The procedure is based on the assumption that the rapid changes in dust are associated with large-scale changes in atmospheric transport and implies that D–O oscillations (in terms of their atmospheric imprint) are more symmetric in form than can be inferred from Greenland temperature records. After removal of the abrupt shifts the residual, dejumped dust record is found to match Antarctic climate variability with a temporal lag of several hundred years. It is argued that such variability may reflect changes in the source region of Greenland dust (thought to be the deserts of eastern Asia). Other records from this region and more globally also reveal Antarctic-style variability and suggest that this signal is globally pervasive. This provides the potential basis for suggesting a more important role for gradual changes in triggering more abrupt transitions in the climate system. PMID:17954910

  16. Observational Evidence for a Decade-long climate optimum near the Hesperian/Amazonian Transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parsons, R.; Moore, J. M.; Howard, A. D.

    2012-12-01

    Hesperian to Amazonian-aged valleys (HAVs) are predominantly found in the southern equatorial and mid-latitudes of Mars and form parallel to dendritic networks. These features record a significant warming of the regional/global climate which may have been associated with outflow channel formation and/or a period of alluvial fan deposition in Margaritifer Terra [1]. HAVs are distinct from older valley networks in both their age and morphology and they provide a window into the past climate conditions and potential water sources which formed them. Using quantitative geomorphic analysis we calculate the expected range of timescales, water volumes, precipitation rates and atmospheric conditions which contributed to HAV formation. In Newton crater (40oS, -159oE) we measured valley widths, depths, slopes and alluvial fan volumes. These observations, when combined with a set of terrestrial sediment transport prediction functions [2,3,4,5], allow us to calculate an expected duration of fluvial activity ranging from 0.1 to 10 years for water-filled channel depths ranging between 20 and 130 cm, and median sediment grain size ranging from 1 mm to 10 cm. The water volume required to form a single HAV in Newton crater ranges between 1.8 and 5.7~km3 based on the Darcy-Weisbach equation [6] in combination with the aforementioned range in channel depths, grain sizes and formation timescales. These results imply water runoff rates of between 1 to 10~cm/day over a typical, 300~km2, drainage area. Such a high runoff rate and short formation time suggest a brief, dramatic regional to global climate excursion. The source of water which formed these features remains unclear, but it must have been released at the aforementioned rates, and was widely distributed within each drainage catchment, and regionally over Newton crater and the southern highlands. HAV formation was likely a two-step process involving, first, the deposition of a 10s of meters thick regional snowpack along

  17. Remote Detection and Modeling of Abrupt and Gradual Tree Mortality in the Southwestern USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muss, J. D.; Xu, C.; McDowell, N. G.

    2014-12-01

    Current climate models predict a warming and drying trend that has a high probability of increasing the frequency and spatial extent of tree mortality events. Field surveys can be used to identify, date, and attribute a cause of mortality to specific trees, but monetary and time constraints prevent broad-scale surveys, which are necessary to establish regional or global trends in tree mortality. This is significant because widespread forest mortality will likely lead to radical changes in evapotranspiration and surface albedo, which could compound climate change. While understanding the causes and mechanisms of tree mortality events is crucial, it is equally important to be able to detect and monitor mortality and subsequent changes to the ecosystem at broad spatial- and temporal-scales. Over the past five years our ability to remotely detect abrupt forest mortality events has improved greatly, but gradual events—such as those caused by drought or certain types of insects—are still difficult to identify. Moreover, it is virtually impossible to quantify the amount of mortality that has occurred within a mixed pixel. We have developed a system that fuses climate and satellite-derived spectral data to identify both the date and the agent of forest mortality events. This system has been used with Landsat time series data to detect both abrupt and general trends in tree loss that have occurred during the past quarter-century in northern New Mexico. It has also been used with MODIS data to identify pixels with a high likelihood of drought-caused tree mortality in the Southwestern US. These candidate pixels were then fed to ED-FRT, a coupled forest dynamics-radiative transfer model, to generate estimates of drought-induced. We demonstrate a multi-scale approach that can produce results that will be instrumental in advancing our understanding of tree mortality-climate feedbacks, and improve our ability to predict what forests could look like in the future.

  18. Extreme temperatures, foundation species, and abrupt ecosystem change: an example from an iconic seagrass ecosystem.

    PubMed

    Thomson, Jordan A; Burkholder, Derek A; Heithaus, Michael R; Fourqurean, James W; Fraser, Matthew W; Statton, John; Kendrick, Gary A

    2015-04-01

    Extreme climatic events can trigger abrupt and often lasting change in ecosystems via the reduction or elimination of foundation (i.e., habitat-forming) species. However, while the frequency/intensity of extreme events is predicted to increase under climate change, the impact of these events on many foundation species and the ecosystems they support remains poorly understood. Here, we use the iconic seagrass meadows of Shark Bay, Western Australia--a relatively pristine subtropical embayment whose dominant, canopy-forming seagrass, Amphibolis antarctica, is a temperate species growing near its low-latitude range limit--as a model system to investigate the impacts of extreme temperatures on ecosystems supported by thermally sensitive foundation species in a changing climate. Following an unprecedented marine heat wave in late summer 2010/11, A. antarctica experienced catastrophic (>90%) dieback in several regions of Shark Bay. Animal-borne video footage taken from the perspective of resident, seagrass-associated megafauna (sea turtles) revealed severe habitat degradation after the event compared with a decade earlier. This reduction in habitat quality corresponded with a decline in the health status of largely herbivorous green turtles (Chelonia mydas) in the 2 years following the heat wave, providing evidence of long-term, community-level impacts of the event. Based on these findings, and similar examples from diverse ecosystems, we argue that a generalized framework for assessing the vulnerability of ecosystems to abrupt change associated with the loss of foundation species is needed to accurately predict ecosystem trajectories in a changing climate. This includes seagrass meadows, which have received relatively little attention in this context. Novel research and monitoring methods, such as the analysis of habitat and environmental data from animal-borne video and data-logging systems, can make an important contribution to this framework. PMID:25145694

  19. Climate changes since the mid-Holocene in the Middle Atlas, Morocco

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nourelbait, M.; Rhoujjati, A.; Benkaddour, A.; Carré, M.; Eynaud, F.; Martinez, P.; Cheddadi, R.

    2015-09-01

    The Holocene climate is known to be rather stable although with few abrupt changes that lasted few decades. The present study is related the climate changes and their environmental impacts during the last 6000 years from a fossil record collected in the Middle Atlas, Morocco. Reconstruction of three climate variables (January temperature (Tjan), annual precipitation (Pann) and a precipitation seasonal index (SI)) was based on pollen data and analyzed various bio and geo-chemical elements. Then we evaluated the relationships between all the environmental variables. Climate over the last 6000 years was rather stable with a smooth trend of aridity towards the present. Tjan has varied within about 2 °C range and Pann within less than 100 mm yr-1. Despite such overall climate stability, after ca. 3750 cal BP some important changes were observe in the ecosystem composition, the carbon isotopic contents of organic matter in lake sediments (δ13C), the total organic carbon and nitrogen amount and the carbon to nitrogen ratio (C / N). These environmental changes are related to the transition in the conifer forest between the Atlas cedar, which expanded after 3750 cal BP, and the pine forest. These vegetation changes have impacted the sedimentation type and composition into the lake. Between 5500 and 5000 cal BP an abrupt change is recorded in all bio and geo-chemical indicators as well as in the pollen data. The multi-proxy analysis, taking into account the climate variables, tends to indicate that it was mainly a decrease in temperature without a significant change in the overall amount of precipitation. In summary, the present study confirms the overall climate stability over the last 6000 years and highlights the presence of short and abrupt climate events.

  20. National climate change action plans: Interim report for developing and transition countries

    SciTech Connect

    Benioff, R.; Ness, E.; Hirst, J.

    1997-10-01

    Under its Support for National Action Plans (SNAP) initiative, the U.S. Country Studies Program is providing financial and technical assistance to 18 countries for the development of climate change action plans. Although most of the countries have not yet completed their plans, the important lessons learned thus far are valuable and should be shared with other countries and international institutions that have an interest in the process of action plan development. This interim report describes the experience of 11 countries that are the furthest along in their planning activity and who have offered to share their results to date with the larger community of interested nations. These action plans delineate specific mitigation and adaptation measures that the countries will implement and integrate into their ongoing development programs. This report focuses on the measures the countries have selected and the methods they used to prepare their action plans. This executive summary presents key lessons and common themes using a structure similar to that used in the individual country chapters.

  1. Short-Term Test Results. Transitional Housing Energy Efficiency Retrofit in the Hot Humid Climate

    SciTech Connect

    Sutherland, K.

    2013-02-01

    This project evaluates the renovation of a 5,800 ft2, multi-use facility located in St. Petersburg, on the west coast of central Florida, in the hot humid climate. An optimal package of retrofit measures was designed to deliver 30%-40% annual energy cost savings for this building with annual utility bills exceeding $16,000 and high base load consumption. Researchers projected energy cost savings for potential retrofit measures based on pre-retrofit findings and disaggregated, weather normalized utility bills as a basis for simulation true-up. A cost-benefit analysis was conducted for the seven retrofit measures implemented; adding attic insulation and sealing soffits, tinting windows, improving whole building air-tightness, upgrading heating and cooling systems and retrofitting the air distribution system, replacing water heating systems, retrofitting lighting, and replacing laundry equipment. The projected energy cost savings for the full retrofit package based on a post-retrofit audit is 35%. The building's architectural characteristics, vintage, and residential and commercial uses presented challenges for both economic projections and retrofit measure construction.

  2. Short-Term Test Results: Transitional Housing Energy Efficiency Retrofit in the Hot-Humid Climate

    SciTech Connect

    Sutherland, K.; Martin, E.

    2013-02-01

    This project evaluates the renovation of a 5,800 ft2, multi-use facility located in St. Petersburg, on the west coast of central Florida, in the hot humid climate. An optimal package of retrofit measures was designed to deliver 30-40% annual energy cost savings for this building with annual utility bills exceeding $16,000 and high base load consumption. Researchers projected energy cost savings for potential retrofit measures based on pre-retrofit findings and disaggregated, weather normalized utility bills as a basis for simulation true-up. A cost-benefit analysis was conducted for the seven retrofit measures implemented; adding attic insulation and sealing soffits, tinting windows, improving whole building air-tightness, upgrading heating and cooling systems and retrofitting the air distribution system, replacing water heating systems, retrofitting lighting, and replacing laundry equipment. The projected energy cost savings for the full retrofit package based on a post-retrofit audit is 35%. The building's architectural characteristics, vintage, and residential and commercial uses presented challenges for both economic projections and retrofit measure construction.

  3. « Younger-Dryas / African Humid Period »: a notable climatic transition over West Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Skonieczny, C.; Bory, A. J.; Bout-Roumazeilles, V.; Malaizé, B.; Grousset, F. E.; Abouchami, W.; Galer, S. J.; Francois, R. H.

    2013-05-01

    Every year, several hundreds teragrams of dust are emitted from the Sahara and Sahel regions. These mineral particles sensitively track variations in atmospheric circulation and continental aridity. Sediments of the Northeastern Atlantic Tropical Ocean (NEATO) are fed by this intense dust supply and comprise unique long-term archives of past dust emissions. Past modifications of dust characteristics in these sedimentary archives can provide precious information on changes in environmental conditions in source areas (aridity, weathering), as well as on changes in the characteristics of their atmospheric transport (pathways and strength). Over Africa, gradual increases in local insolation due to changes in the Earth's orbit are accompanied by a migration of the precipitation monsoon-system (associated with the InterTropical Convergence Zone, ITCZ) toward the North. This displacement leads to decrease in West African mineral dust emission. Consequently, Saharan and Sahelian dust deposited in the NEATO sedimentary archives represent an exceptional opportunity to document the environmental and climatic changes that have taken place in West Africa throughout the Quaternary and beyond (Rea, 1994). Here we document changes in the terrigenous supplies to the NETAO throughout the last deglaciation using the marine sediment core MD03-2705 located off Mauritania (18°05N; 21°09W; 3085m water depth) and retrieved from a bathymetric dome, 300 meters above the surrounding seafloor. Considering this particular environmental setting, the terrigenous fraction in this record is assumed to be predominantly of aeolian origin. Multi-proxy analyses of the carbonate-free fraction of the sediment were carried-out, including dust fluxes, grain-size, clay mineralogy and geochemical measurements (major and trace elements as well as Sr & Nd isotopes). We will discuss the most significant changes recorded over the studied period: levels dated from the Younger Dryas and the subsequent African

  4. Hesperian-Amazonian Transition Mid-Latitude Valleys: Markers of a Late Martian Climate Optima?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moore, Jeffrey; Howard, A. D.; Parsons, Reid A.; Hobley, D. E.

    2012-01-01

    Recently the inventory of fluvial features that have been dated to the late Hesperian to early Amazonian epoch has increased dramatically, including a reassessment of the ages of the large alluvial fans and deltas (e.g., Eberswalde) to this time period. Mid-latitude Valleys (MLVs) are distinct from the older, more integrated Noachian-Hesperian Valley Networks which are deeply dissected, are generally of much larger spatial extent, and are more degraded. Although some MLVs involve rejuvenation of older Valley Networks, many MLVs are carved into smooth or rolling slopes and intercrater terrain. The MLVs range from a few meters to < 300 m in width, with nearly parallel valley walls and planforms that are locally sinuous. Although the MLVs in Newton and Gorgonum basins extend from the basin rims up to 75 km into the basin interior, most MLVs are shorter and often discontinuous. The occurrence of widespread MLVs suggest the possibility of their formation during one or perhaps more regional to global climatic episodes, possibly due to melting of seasonal to long-term accumulations of snow and ice. Temperatures warm enough to cause extensive melting may have occurred during optimal orbital and obliquity configurations, perhaps in conjunction with intensive volcanism releasing moisture and greenhouse gasses, or as a result of a brief episode of warming from a large impact. The concentration of MLVs to the northern and western basin slopes of Newton and Gorgonum basins suggests a possible aspect control to ice accumulation or melting. MLV activity occurred about at the same time as formation of the major outflow channels. A possible scenario is that delivery of water to the northern lowlands provided, through evaporation and sublimation, water that temporarily accumulated in the mid-southern latitudes as widespread ice deposits whose partial melting formed the MLVs and small, dominantly ice-covered lakes.

  5. Impact of suborbital climate changes in the North Atlantic on ice sheet dynamics at the Mid-Pleistocene Transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    HernáNdez-Almeida, I.; Sierro, F. J.; Cacho, I.; Flores, J. A.

    2012-09-01

    Early and Mid-Pleistocene climate, ocean hydrography and ice sheet dynamics have been reconstructed using a high-resolution data set (planktonic and benthicδ18O time series, faunal-based sea surface temperature (SST) reconstructions and ice-rafted debris (IRD)) record from a high-deposition-rate sedimentary succession recovered at the Gardar Drift formation in the subpolar North Atlantic (Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Leg 306, Site U1314). Our sedimentary record spans from late in Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 31 to MIS 19 (1069-779 ka). Different trends of the benthic and planktonic oxygen isotopes, SST and IRD records before and after MIS 25 (˜940 ka) evidence the large increase in Northern Hemisphere ice-volume, linked to the cyclicity change from the 41-kyr to the 100-kyr that occurred during the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT). Beside longer glacial-interglacial (G-IG) variability, millennial-scale fluctuations were a pervasive feature across our study. Negative excursions in the benthicδ18O time series observed at the times of IRD events may be related to glacio-eustatic changes due to ice sheets retreats and/or to changes in deep hydrography. Time series analysis on surface water proxies (IRD, SST and planktonicδ18O) of the interval between MIS 31 to MIS 26 shows that the timing of these millennial-scale climate changes are related to half-precessional (10 kyr) components of the insolation forcing, which are interpreted as cross-equatorial heat transport toward high latitudes during both equinox insolation maxima at the equator.

  6. Drivers and Dynamics of Ecological Responses to Abrupt Environmental Change on the Early Miocene Oregon Shelf

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Belanger, C. L.

    2012-12-01

    We know that the biosphere responds to abrupt climate change, but know less about the dynamics of those changes and their proximal drivers. Studies of well-preserved fossil time-series spanning past climate events that utilize multiple environmental proxies and examine multiple taxonomic groups can provide critical insight into (a) the specific environmental factors to which the biota respond, (b) the rate and tempo of those responses, and (c) whether taxonomic groups respond similarly or differently to the same stresses. I examine the drivers and dynamics of ecological changes in continental shelf benthic foraminifera and molluscs from the Early Miocene Newport Member of the Astoria Formation in Oregon (20.3-16.3 mya), which spans a time of global warming leading into the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum. Stable isotope (δ18O) data from three species of benthic foraminifera from the Astoria sediments indicate that the region abruptly warmed by 2-4°C approximately 19 mya. In addition, δ13C values from epifaunal and infaunal foraminifera indicate an increase in productivity and organic carbon flux over time. Further, an increase in δ15N from bulk sediment and an increase in sedimentary laminations suggest oxygen levels declined. Multivariate analyses demonstrate a strong correlation between foraminiferal community metrics and δ15N suggesting that the foraminiferal community is tracking oxygenation levels while correlations to productivity changes appear indirect. Molluscan community metrics also have an approximately linear relationship to δ15N. Temperature itself had little direct influence on community composition. Changes in community composition and structure of both the foraminifera and the molluscs are abrupt relative to the duration of community states, but each group responds differently to the climate change. The foraminiferal community increases in the number of species and the evenness of species abundances while the molluscan community decreases in

  7. Resilience, rapid transitions and regime shifts: fingerprinting the responses of Lake Żabińskie (NE Poland) to climate variability and human disturbance since 1000 AD

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tylmann, Wojciech; Hernández-Almeida, Iván; Grosjean, Martin; José Gómez Navarro, Juan; Larocque-Tobler, Isabelle; Bonk, Alicja; Enters, Dirk; Ustrzycka, Alicja; Piotrowska, Natalia; Przybylak, Rajmund; Wacnik, Agnieszka; Witak, Małgorzata

    2016-04-01

    Rapid ecosystem transitions and adverse effects on ecosystem services as responses to combined climate and human impacts are of major concern. Yet few quantitative observational data exist, particularly for ecosystems that have a long history of human intervention. Here, we combine quantitative summer and winter climate reconstructions, climate model simulations and proxies for three major environmental pressures (land use, nutrients and erosion) to explore the system dynamics, resilience, and the role of disturbance regimes in varved eutrophic Lake Żabińskie since AD 1000. Comparison between regional and global climate simulations and quantitative climate reconstructions indicate that proxy data capture noticeably natural forced climate variability, while internal variability appears as the dominant source of climate variability in the climate model simulations during most parts of the last millennium. Using different multivariate analyses and change point detection techniques, we identify ecosystem changes through time and shifts between rather stable states and highly variable ones, as expressed by the proxies for land-use, erosion and productivity in the lake. Prior to AD 1600, the lake ecosystem was characterized by a high stability and resilience against considerable observed natural climate variability. In contrast, lake-ecosystem conditions started to fluctuate at high frequency across a broad range of states after AD 1600. The period AD 1748-1868 represents the phase with the strongest human disturbance of the ecosystem. Analyses of the frequency of change points in the multi-proxy dataset suggests that the last 400 years were highly variable and flickering with increasing vulnerability of the ecosystem to the combined effects of climate variability and anthropogenic disturbances. This led to significant rapid ecosystem transformations.

  8. Abrupt Depletion Layer Approximation for the Metal Insulator Semiconductor Diode.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jones, Kenneth

    1979-01-01

    Determines the excess surface change carrier density, surface potential, and relative capacitance of a metal insulator semiconductor diode as a function of the gate voltage, using the precise questions and the equations derived with the abrupt depletion layer approximation. (Author/GA)

  9. Abrupt changes in the dynamics of quantum disentanglement

    SciTech Connect

    Lastra, F.; Romero, G.; Lopez, C. E.; Retamal, J. C.; Franca Santos, M.

    2007-06-15

    The evolution of the lower bound of entanglement proposed by Chen et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 95, 210501 (2005)] in high-dimensional bipartite systems under dissipation is studied. Discontinuities for the time derivative of this bound are found depending on the initial conditions for entangled states. These abrupt changes along the evolution of the entanglement bound appear as precursors of sudden death.

  10. The impact of precession changes on the Arctic climate during the last interglacial glacial transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khodri, Myriam; Cane, Mark A.; Kukla, George; Gavin, Joyce; Braconnot, Pascale

    2005-07-01

    Three sensitivity experiments using an Ocean Atmosphere General Circulation Model (OAGCM) are conducted to simulate the climate impact of precession. The relative contributions of components of the hydrological cycle including the albedo of Arctic sea ice, advection of atmospheric water vapor and sea surface temperature to the summer Arctic melt process are evaluated. Timing of the perihelion is varied in each experiment with meteorological spring (SP), winter (WP) and autumn (AP) perihelion corresponding to conditions at 110, 115 and 120 ky BP, respectively. Obliquity is unchanged at the 115 ky level which is lower than today. The experiments are assessed relative to the present day control, which has been shown to simulate current conditions based on observations. In the SP experiment, top of the atmosphere (TOA) insolation is weaker than today between the summer solstice and autumnal equinox. In the AP case representing the interglacial, it is less intense between vernal equinox and summer solstice but stronger during the remainder of the year. Although the incident solar radiation is reduced in summer in the SP experiment, increased melting of snow is found primarily as a result of feedbacks from the delayed seasonal cycle of hydrologic components. This is in contrast to both the WP and AP cases in which the perennial snow cover is simulated. At the time of the last glacial inception, 115 ky BP, the WP experiment shows lower insolation to the high northern latitudes in late spring and summer mainly as a result of lower obliquity than today. Dynamical ocean-atmosphere interactions in response to precession maintain the reduced sea ice melting in late spring, strengthen the annual equator-to-pole sea surface temperature (SST) gradient and increase atmospheric moisture convergence in glaciation-sensitive regions. In both the WP and AP experiments seasonal sea ice melting is weakened resulting in pronounced outgoing radiative flux at the locations of expanded sea

  11. Percolation-based precursors of transitions in extended systems

    PubMed Central

    Rodríguez-Méndez, Víctor; Eguíluz M, Víctor M.; Hernández-García, Emilio; Ramasco, José J.

    2016-01-01

    Abrupt transitions are ubiquitous in the dynamics of complex systems. Finding precursors, i.e. early indicators of their arrival, is fundamental in many areas of science ranging from electrical engineering to climate. However, obtaining warnings of an approaching transition well in advance remains an elusive task. Here we show that a functional network, constructed from spatial correlations of the system’s time series, experiences a percolation transition way before the actual system reaches a bifurcation point due to the collective phenomena leading to the global change. Concepts from percolation theory are then used to introduce early warning precursors that anticipate the system’s tipping point. We illustrate the generality and versatility of our percolation-based framework with model systems experiencing different types of bifurcations and with Sea Surface Temperature time series associated to El Niño phenomenon. PMID:27412567

  12. Percolation-based precursors of transitions in extended systems.

    PubMed

    Rodríguez-Méndez, Víctor; Eguíluz M, Víctor M; Hernández-García, Emilio; Ramasco, José J

    2016-01-01

    Abrupt transitions are ubiquitous in the dynamics of complex systems. Finding precursors, i.e. early indicators of their arrival, is fundamental in many areas of science ranging from electrical engineering to climate. However, obtaining warnings of an approaching transition well in advance remains an elusive task. Here we show that a functional network, constructed from spatial correlations of the system's time series, experiences a percolation transition way before the actual system reaches a bifurcation point due to the collective phenomena leading to the global change. Concepts from percolation theory are then used to introduce early warning precursors that anticipate the system's tipping point. We illustrate the generality and versatility of our percolation-based framework with model systems experiencing different types of bifurcations and with Sea Surface Temperature time series associated to El Niño phenomenon. PMID:27412567

  13. Percolation-based precursors of transitions in extended systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodríguez-Méndez, Víctor; Eguíluz M, Víctor M.; Hernández-García, Emilio; Ramasco, José J.

    2016-07-01

    Abrupt transitions are ubiquitous in the dynamics of complex systems. Finding precursors, i.e. early indicators of their arrival, is fundamental in many areas of science ranging from electrical engineering to climate. However, obtaining warnings of an approaching transition well in advance remains an elusive task. Here we show that a functional network, constructed from spatial correlations of the system’s time series, experiences a percolation transition way before the actual system reaches a bifurcation point due to the collective phenomena leading to the global change. Concepts from percolation theory are then used to introduce early warning precursors that anticipate the system’s tipping point. We illustrate the generality and versatility of our percolation-based framework with model systems experiencing different types of bifurcations and with Sea Surface Temperature time series associated to El Niño phenomenon.

  14. Abrupt increases in Amazonian tree mortality due to drought-fire interactions.

    PubMed

    Brando, Paulo Monteiro; Balch, Jennifer K; Nepstad, Daniel C; Morton, Douglas C; Putz, Francis E; Coe, Michael T; Silvério, Divino; Macedo, Marcia N; Davidson, Eric A; Nóbrega, Caroline C; Alencar, Ane; Soares-Filho, Britaldo S

    2014-04-29

    Interactions between climate and land-use change may drive widespread degradation of Amazonian forests. High-intensity fires associated with extreme weather events could accelerate this degradation by abruptly increasing tree mortality, but this process remains poorly understood. Here we present, to our knowledge, the first field-based evidence of a tipping point in Amazon forests due to altered fire regimes. Based on results of a large-scale, long-term experiment with annual and triennial burn regimes (B1yr and B3yr, respectively) in the Amazon, we found abrupt increases in fire-induced tree mortality (226 and 462%) during a severe drought event, when fuel loads and air temperatures were substantially higher and relative humidity was lower than long-term averages. This threshold mortality response had a cascading effect, causing sharp declines in canopy cover (23 and 31%) and aboveground live biomass (12 and 30%) and favoring widespread invasion by flammable grasses across the forest edge area (80 and 63%), where fires were most intense (e.g., 220 and 820 kW ⋅ m(-1)). During the droughts of 2007 and 2010, regional forest fires burned 12 and 5% of southeastern Amazon forests, respectively, compared with <1% in nondrought years. These results show that a few extreme drought events, coupled with forest fragmentation and anthropogenic ignition sources, are already causing widespread fire-induced tree mortality and forest degradation across southeastern Amazon forests. Future projections of vegetation responses to climate change across drier portions of the Amazon require more than simulation of global climate forcing alone and must also include interactions of extreme weather events, fire, and land-use change. PMID:24733937

  15. Abrupt increases in Amazonian tree mortality due to drought–fire interactions

    PubMed Central

    Brando, Paulo Monteiro; Balch, Jennifer K.; Nepstad, Daniel C.; Morton, Douglas C.; Putz, Francis E.; Coe, Michael T.; Silvério, Divino; Macedo, Marcia N.; Davidson, Eric A.; Nóbrega, Caroline C.; Alencar, Ane; Soares-Filho, Britaldo S.

    2014-01-01

    Interactions between climate and land-use change may drive widespread degradation of Amazonian forests. High-intensity fires associated with extreme weather events could accelerate this degradation by abruptly increasing tree mortality, but this process remains poorly understood. Here we present, to our knowledge, the first field-based evidence of a tipping point in Amazon forests due to altered fire regimes. Based on results of a large-scale, long-term experiment with annual and triennial burn regimes (B1yr and B3yr, respectively) in the Amazon, we found abrupt increases in fire-induced tree mortality (226 and 462%) during a severe drought event, when fuel loads and air temperatures were substantially higher and relative humidity was lower than long-term averages. This threshold mortality response had a cascading effect, causing sharp declines in canopy cover (23 and 31%) and aboveground live biomass (12 and 30%) and favoring widespread invasion by flammable grasses across the forest edge area (80 and 63%), where fires were most intense (e.g., 220 and 820 kW⋅m−1). During the droughts of 2007 and 2010, regional forest fires burned 12 and 5% of southeastern Amazon forests, respectively, compared with <1% in nondrought years. These results show that a few extreme drought events, coupled with forest fragmentation and anthropogenic ignition sources, are already causing widespread fire-induced tree mortality and forest degradation across southeastern Amazon forests. Future projections of vegetation responses to climate change across drier portions of the Amazon require more than simulation of global climate forcing alone and must also include interactions of extreme weather events, fire, and land-use change. PMID:24733937

  16. Abrupt decadal-to-centennial hydroclimate changes in the Mediterranean region since the mid-Holocene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, Hsun-Ming; Shen, Chuan-Chou; Jiang, Xiuyang; Wang, Yongjin; Mii, Horng-Sheng; Michel, Véronique

    2016-04-01

    A series of severe drought events in the Mediterranean region over the past two decades has posed a threat on both human society and biosystem. Holocene hydrological dynamics can offer valuable clues for understanding future climate and making proper adaption strategy. Here, we present a decadal-resolved stalagmite record documenting various hydroclimatic fluctuations in the north central Mediterranean region since the middle Holocene. The stalagmite δ18O sequence shows dramatic instability, characterized by abrupt shifts between dry and wet conditions <50 years. The timing of regional culture demises, such as the Hittite Kingdom, Mycenaean Greece, Akkadian Empire, Egyptian Old Kingdom, and Uruk, occurred during the drought events, suggesting an important role of climate impact on human civilization. The unstable hydroclimate evolution is related to transferred North Atlantic Oscillation states. Rate of rapid transfer of precipitation patterns, which can be pin-pointed by our good chronology, improves the prediction to future climate changes in North Atlantic region. We also found that a strong correlation between this stalagmite δ18O and sea surface temperatures especially in Pacific Ocean. This agreement suggests a distant interregional climate teleconnection.

  17. A novel method for detecting abrupt dynamic change based on the changing Hurst exponent of spatial images

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Wen-Ping; Liu, Qun-Qun; Gu, Bin; Zhao, Shan-Shan

    2016-01-01

    The climate system is a classical spatiotemporal evolutionary dynamic system with spatiotemporal correlation characteristics. Based on this, two-dimensional detrended fluctuation analysis (TD-DFA) is used to estimate the Hurst exponent of two-dimensional images. Then, we monitored the change of the Hurst exponent of the images to identify an abrupt dynamic change. We tested the performance of this method with a coupled spatiotemporal dynamic model and found that it works well. The changes in the Hurst exponents of the spatial images are stable when there is no dynamic change in the system, but there will be a clear non-stationary change of the Hurst exponents; for example, the abrupt mean values change if the dynamics of the system change. Thus, the TD-DFA method is suitable for detecting an abrupt dynamic change from natural and artificial images. The spatial images of the NCEP reanalysis of the daily average temperature exhibited fractality. Based on this, we found three non-stationary changes in the Hurst exponents for the NCEP reanalysis of the daily average temperature or for the annual average temperature in the region (60°S-60°N). It can be concluded that the climate system may have incurred three dynamic changes since 1961 on decadal timescales, i.e., in approximately the mid-1970s, the mid-1980s, and between the late 1990s and the early 2000s.

  18. Abrupt termination of the 2012 Pacific warming and its implication on ENSO prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Su, Jingzhi; Xiang, Baoqiang; Wang, Bin; Li, Tim

    2014-12-01

    In the summer of 2012, there was a clear signal of the developing El Niño over the equatorial Pacific, and many climate models forecasted the occurrence of El Niño with a peak phase in the subsequent winter. However, the warming was aborted abruptly in late fall. Here we show that the abrupt termination of the 2012 Pacific warming was largely attributed to the anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) cooling in the northeastern and southeastern subtropical Pacific. The anomalous SST cooling induced strong easterly and low-level divergence anomalies, suppressing the development of westerly and convection anomalies over the equatorial central Pacific. Thus, the surface warming over the equatorial Pacific was decoupled from the surface wind forcing and subsurface thermocline variability, inhibiting its further development into a mature El Niño in the winter of 2012-2013. This study highlights the importance of the SST anomaly in the subtropical Pacific in El Niño prediction.

  19. Using Hydrated Salt Phase Change Materials for Residential Air Conditioning Peak Demand Reduction and Energy Conservation in Coastal and Transitional Climates in the State of California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Kyoung Ok

    The recent rapid economic and population growth in the State of California have led to a significant increase in air conditioning use, especially in areas of the State with coastal and transitional climates. This fact makes that the electric peak demand be dominated by air conditioning use of residential buildings in the summer time. This extra peak demand caused by the use of air conditioning equipment lasts only a few days out of the year. As a result, unavoidable power outages have occurred when electric supply could not keep up with such electric demand. This thesis proposed a possible solution to this problem by using building thermal mass via phase change materials to reduce peak air conditioning demand loads. This proposed solution was tested via a new wall called Phase Change Frame Wall (PCFW). The PCFW is a typical residential frame wall in which Phase Change Materials (PCMs) were integrated to add thermal mass. The thermal performance of the PCFWs was first evaluated, experimentally, in two test houses, built for this purpose, located in Lawrence, KS and then via computer simulations of residential buildings located in coastal and transitional climates in California. In this thesis, a hydrated salt PCM was used, which was added in concentrations of 10% and 20% by weight of the interior sheathing of the walls. Based on the experimental results, under Lawrence, KS weather, the PCFWs at 10% and 20% of PCM concentrations reduced the peak heat transfer rates by 27.0% and 27.3%, on average, of all four walls, respectively. Simulated results using California climate data indicated that PCFWs would reduce peak heat transfer rates by 8% and 19% at 10% PCM concentration and 12.2% and 27% at 20% PCM concentration for the coastal and transitional climates, respectively. Furthermore, the PCFWs, at 10% PCM concentration, would reduce the space cooling load and the annual energy consumption by 10.4% and 7.2%, on average in both climates, respectively.

  20. Recommended Experimental Procedures for Evaluation of Abrupt Wing Stall Characteristics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Capone, F. J.; Hall, R. M.; Owens, D. B.; Lamar, J. E.; McMillin, S. N.

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a review of the experimental program under the Abrupt Wing Stall (AWS) Program. Candidate figures of merit from conventional static tunnel tests are summarized and correlated with data obtained in unique free-to-roll tests. Where possible, free-to-roll results are also correlated with flight data. Based on extensive studies of static experimental figures of merit in the Abrupt Wing Stall Program for four different aircraft configurations, no one specific figure of merit consistently flagged a warning of potential lateral activity when actual activity was seen to occur in the free-to-roll experiments. However, these studies pointed out the importance of measuring and recording the root mean square signals of the force balance.

  1. Abruptly autofocusing terahertz waves with meta-hologram.

    PubMed

    He, Jingwen; Wang, Sen; Xie, Zhenwei; Ye, Jiasheng; Wang, Xinke; Kan, Qiang; Zhang, Yan

    2016-06-15

    An abruptly autofocusing ring-Airy beam is demonstrated in the terahertz (THz) waveband with a meta-hologram. The designed meta-hologram is composed of gold C-shaped slot antennas, which can realize both phase and amplitude modulation of the incident THz wave. A THz holographic imaging system is utilized to measure the generated ring-Airy beam; an abrupt focus following a parabolic trajectory is subsequently observed. THz ring-Airy beams with different parameters are also generated and investigated. This method can be expanded to other wavebands, such as the visible band, for which the meta-hologram can replace traditional computer-generated holography to avoid undesirable multiple diffraction orders. PMID:27304289

  2. Complications of coronary intervention: abrupt closure, dissection, perforation

    PubMed Central

    Dash, Debabrata

    2013-01-01

    The introduction of drug-eluting stents (DESs) and superior anticoagulation has successfully improved the safety and patency rates of complex percutaneous coronary interventions (PCIs). The evolving techniques of contemporary PCI have been unable to completely eliminate coronary injury and mechanical complications. Primary causes for abrupt closure include dissection, thrombus formation and acute stent thrombosis. Initial treatment for abrupt closure includes balloon redilatation, optimisation of activated clotting time (ACT) and deployment of stent to stabilise a dissection. Coronary perforation is one of the most challenging and feared complications of PCI. It is most frequently due to distal wire or balloon/stent oversizing and should be fixed with balloon occlusion. Covered stent may be needed for large perforation in major proximal vessels. Perforations in small or distal vessels not resolving with balloon occlusion may be managed by coil or Gelfoam embolisation. Referral to emergency coronary artery bypass surgery (CABG) should be an option in case perforations do not seal.

  3. Ultra-wideband horn antenna with abrupt radiator

    DOEpatents

    McEwan, Thomas E.

    1998-01-01

    An ultra-wideband horn antenna transmits and receives impulse waveforms for short-range radars and impulse time-of flight systems. The antenna reduces or eliminates various sources of close-in radar clutter, including pulse dispersion and ringing, sidelobe clutter, and feedline coupling into the antenna. Dispersion is minimized with an abrupt launch point radiator element; sidelobe and feedline coupling are minimized by recessing the radiator into a metallic horn. Low frequency cut-off associated with a horn is extended by configuring the radiator drive impedance to approach a short circuit at low frequencies. A tapered feed plate connects at one end to a feedline, and at the other end to a launcher plate which is mounted to an inside wall of the horn. The launcher plate and feed plate join at an abrupt edge which forms the single launch point of the antenna.

  4. Ultra-wideband horn antenna with abrupt radiator

    DOEpatents

    McEwan, T.E.

    1998-05-19

    An ultra-wideband horn antenna transmits and receives impulse waveforms for short-range radars and impulse time-of flight systems. The antenna reduces or eliminates various sources of close-in radar clutter, including pulse dispersion and ringing, sidelobe clutter, and feedline coupling into the antenna. Dispersion is minimized with an abrupt launch point radiator element; sidelobe and feedline coupling are minimized by recessing the radiator into a metallic horn. Low frequency cut-off associated with a horn is extended by configuring the radiator drive impedance to approach a short circuit at low frequencies. A tapered feed plate connects at one end to a feedline, and at the other end to a launcher plate which is mounted to an inside wall of the horn. The launcher plate and feed plate join at an abrupt edge which forms the single launch point of the antenna. 8 figs.

  5. Millennial scale precipitation changes over Easter Island (Southern Pacific) during MIS 3: Inter-hemispheric connections during North Atlantic abrupt cold events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Margalef, Olga; Cacho, Isabel; Pla-Rabes, Sergi; Cañellas-Boltà, Núria; Pueyo, Juan Jose; Sáez, Alberto; Valero-Garcés, Blas L.; Giralt, Santiago

    2013-04-01

    Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3 climate has been globally characterized by the occurrence of millennial-scale climate variations defined over North Atlantic as Dansgaard-Oeschger and Heinrich events. Despite climate variability has been broadly explored over North Atlantic records, the response of the tropical and subtropical latitudes, especially in the Southern Hemisphere, still remains as a matter of debate. Rano Aroi peat record (Easter Island, Chile, 27°S) provides a unique opportunity to understand Southern Pacific atmospheric and oceanic changes during these stadial-interstadial transitions because of its exceptional location on the interplay of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ), the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the South Pacific Anticyclone (SPA) and the Southern Westerlies (SW). Rano Aroi record contains 8 main enhanced precipitation events between 70 and 40 kyr BP that can be correlated with the timing of Heinrich events 5, 5a and 6 as well as other cold stadials. These humid events are also present in other Southern Hemisphere continental sites and correspond to dry periods on Northern Hemisphere records. This opposite hydrologic trend has been explained by the latitudinal migration of ITCZ and has been supported by several climatic models. As Easter Island precipitation is mainly dependent on SPCZ storm track belt activity, we suggest that the southern migration of the ITCZ is associated to an expansion of SPCZ to the east. This process should be intimately related to a weakening of the Walker circulation, which is further supported by an estimation of d18Osw gradient along the equator for the same time period. Consequently, atmospheric and oceanic responses during these cold stadials and Heinrich events might lead to a configuration that resembles the warm ENSO state over Southern Pacific, as previously suggested by some global climatic models. Rano Aroi record clearly points out that shifts in hydrological cycle in tropical Southern

  6. East Antarctic Ice Sheet fluctuations during the Middle Miocene Climatic Transition inferred from faunal and biogeochemical data on planktonic foraminifera (ODP Hole 747A, Kerguelen Plateau)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Verducci, M.; Foresi, L.M.; Scott, G.H.; Tiepolo; Sprovieri, M.; Lirer, F.

    2007-01-01

    This research focuses on a detailed study of faunal and biogeochemical changes that occurred at ODP Hole 747A in the Kerguelen Plateau region of the Southern Ocean during the middle Miocene (14.8-11.8 Ma). Abundance fluctuations of several planktonic foraminiferal taxa, stable oxygen isotope and Mg/Ca ratios have been integrated as a multi-proxy approach to reach a better understanding of the growth modality and fluctuations of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) during this period. A 7°C decrease in Sea Surface Temperature (SST), an abrupt turnover in the planktonic foraminiferal assemblage, a 1.5‰ shift towards heavier δ18O values (Mi3 event) and a related shift towards heavier seawater δ118O values between 13.9 and 13.7 Ma, are interpreted to reflect rapid surface water cooling and EAIS expansion. Hole 747A data suggest a major change in the variability of the climate system fostered by EAIS expansion between 13.9 and 13.7 Ma. Ice sheet fluctuations were greater during the interval 14.8-13.9 Ma compared with those from 13.7 to 11.8 Ma, whereas the latter interval was characterized by a more stable EAIS. In our opinion, the middle Miocene ice sheet expansion in Antarctica represents a first step towards the development of the modern permanent ice sheet

  7. Characterization of a rapid climate shift at the MIS 8/7 transition in central Spain (Valdocarros II, Autonomous Region of Madrid) by means of the herpetological assemblages

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blain, Hugues-Alexandre; Panera, Joaquin; Uribelarrea, David; Rubio-Jara, Susana; Pérez-González, Alfredo

    2012-07-01

    Climate instability with high-amplitude and rapid shifts during the Middle Pleistocene is well known from pollen records and deep-ocean sediment cores. Although poorly correlatable with such long climate/environment records, the successive fossil amphibian and reptile assemblages from the Middle Pleistocene site of Valdocarros II (Autonomous Region of Madrid, central Spain) provide a unique opportunity to characterize the climatic and environmental features of such rapid (certainly less than 1000 years) shifts from cold to warm conditions in a terrestrial sequence. As the amphibians and reptiles do not differ at species level from the extant herpetofauna of the Iberian Peninsula, they can contribute to the reconstruction of the landscape and climate. In this paper, the mutual climatic range and habitat weighting methods are applied to the herpetofaunistic assemblages in order to estimate quantitative data. The difference in mean annual temperature between "cold" and "warm" periods is estimated at 3.2 °C, with a greater increase in temperature during winter (+3 °C) than during summer (+1 °C). During "cold" periods the climate was more Oceanic (although preserving some dryness during the summers), whereas during "warm" periods the climate became Mediterranean (with mild winters and a long period of dryness in the summer and early autumn). Though higher during cold periods, the continentality (or atmospheric temperature range) remained roughly similar, in accordance with the geographical location of the site in the centre of the Iberian Peninsula. A greater amount of open landscape occurred during "cold" periods, whereas during "warm" periods the wooded areas expanded from 20% to 40% of the landscape surface. Such climatic/environmental changes, together with the numeric datings of the site, suggest that this shift may correspond to the transition from MIS 8 to MIS 7, also called Termination III.

  8. Sedimentary provenance insights to East Antarctic ice sheet oscillations and growth during the mid-Miocene Climate Transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pierce, E. L.; van de Flierdt, T.; Williams, T.; Hemming, S. R.; Cook, C.; Passchier, S.

    2012-12-01

    A major step in the evolution of the East Antarctic ice sheet (EAIS) occurred ~ 14 Ma during the Mid-Miocene Climate Transition (MMCT), a period with a global climatic shift that had a profound effect on many components of the Earth system, including terrestrial biota, ocean circulation, both ocean and terrestrial temperatures, sea-level, and ice volume. Of particular interest during this transition is the variability in the extent of the EAIS at its marine-grounded margins. Despite inferences on the total amount of ice growth on Antarctica as a whole, little is known of the temporal and spatial evolution of the East Antarctic ice expansion at this time. Here we apply isotopic provenance studies in order to determine the source of glacially derived sediments deposited ca. 14.7 to 12.6 Ma off the coast of East Antarctica at IODP Site U1356. A total of 672 hornblendes grains from 40 samples were analyzed for their 40Ar/39Ar ages, showing a dominant and unvarying age population of 1400 -1550 Ma for all of the samples. Neodymium (Nd) isotope measurements on the terrigenous <63 μm sediment fraction in contrast show a large range of 8 epsilon units (-8.4 to -16.4). We interpret our results to indicate a greatly retreated EAIS in the Wilkes subglacial basin prior to and during the MMCT. Observed Ar ages are best explained by an ice sheet that sat along the extension of the Mertz Shear Zone, at the western edge of the Wilkes Basin. Three distinct excursions to more radiogenic Nd isotope values require significant input from a more radiogenic source, such as the Ferrar Group, which consists of the Ferrar Doloerite, Kirkpatrick Basalt and Dufek Gabbro, and has epsilon Nd values of approximately -5. The Ferrar Group outcrops extensively along the spine of the Transantarctic Mountains, and geophysical surveys (Ferraccioli et al., 2009, Tectonophysics) indicate that Ferrar dolerite intrudes Beacon Sandstone in areas within the Wilkes subglacial basin. Given the decoupling in

  9. A Rare Cause of Placental Abruption: Uterine Torsion

    PubMed Central

    Güneş, Muhammed Siraç; Kiran, Gürkan; Gülşen, Mehmet Serdar

    2016-01-01

    Uterine torsion is defined as a rotation on its long axis and it is a dangerous, unexpected obstetric emergency. We report a case of uterine torsion at 32 weeks of gestation in a singleton pregnancy. A 37-year-old woman with multiple prior cesarean deliveries referred to emergency unit of our hospital at 32 weeks of gestation with severe abdominal pain and mild vaginal bleeding. Ultrasonography showed a single fetus in vertex position, with a normal amniotic fluid. Fetal biometer was appropriate for 32 weeks of gestation. Placental location was anterior with a subchorionic hypoechogenic small area which was suspected to be a sign of placental abruption. An emergency cesarean section was performed under general anesthesia. The 180° uterine torsion was diagnosed and it was not possible to perform detorsion of the gravid uterus by exteriorization by pfannenstiel incision. Posterior hysterotomy was performed and a male baby of 1830 grams weight was delivered. The newborn was transported to Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU) of another hospital and discharged within two weeks. Patient recovered well and was discharged on second postoperation day. Uterine torsion is a very rare and life threatening situation. In unexpected cases posterior low transuerse hysterotomy is generally performed and it is suggested as a safe choice when detorsion was not accomplished. It is not easy to keep in mind the possibility of uterine torsion in cases of abdominal pain during pregnancy. Because it generally causes abruption, management of abruption is vitally important to prevent fetal mortality. PMID:26894131

  10. Paleobiogeography of scleractinian reef corals: Changing patterns during the Oligocene-Miocene climatic transition in the Mediterranean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perrin, Christine; Bosellini, Francesca R.

    2012-02-01

    During the Oligocene-Miocene Greenhouse-to-Icehouse climatic transition, the biogeography of reef corals or zooxanthellate-like scleractinian corals was gradually changing from a pan-tropical Tethyan Province in the Eocene to three reef-coral Provinces of the Western Atlantic-Caribbean, Indo-Pacific and Mediterranean. Our REEFCORAL database encompasses updated and homogenized data on paleoenvironmental and systematics of scleractinian corals occurring in the Oligocene and Miocene outcrops from circum-Mediterranean regions, provided by most of relatively recently published data in the literature and by the study of published and unpublished collections of coral specimens from the same area, including the important collections housed at the MNHN (Paris) and our own collections. As there is no validated direct criterion for the identification of the coral-zooxanthellate symbiosis in the fossil record, and considering the difficulty to use the biogeochemical approaches in the context of this study, the subjectivity of the morphological criteria and the relative recent age of the fossil corals we are dealing with, a uniformitarian approach has been used for inferring the symbiotic status of scleractinian genera in REEFCORAL. Among the 158 genera included in our database, 93 can be considered as zooxanthellate and 10 have a doubtful zooxanthellate status. This relatively exhaustive database was used to reconstruct the temporal and spatial distribution of scleractinian corals in the Mediterranean during the Oligocene-Miocene time in order to discuss the interplaying effects of the global cooling at that time, the re-organization of the Tethyan realm resulting from the African, Arabian and Eurasian plate collision and the emergence of the Alpine chains, driving the gradual northward movement of the whole region outside the tropical/subtropical belt. It is shown that the structure of the Mediterranean z-coral Oligocene-Miocene paleobiodiversity was characterized by many

  11. Synchronous centennial abrupt events in the ocean and atmosphere during the last deglaciation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Tianyu; Robinson, Laura F.; Burke, Andrea; Southon, John; Spooner, Peter; Morris, Paul J.; Ng, Hong Chin

    2015-09-01

    Antarctic ice-core data reveal that the atmosphere experienced abrupt centennial increases in CO2 concentration during the last deglaciation (~18 thousand to 11 thousand years ago). Establishing the role of ocean circulation in these changes requires high-resolution, accurately dated marine records. Here, we report radiocarbon data from uranium-thorium-dated deep-sea corals in the Equatorial Atlantic and Drake Passage over the past 25,000 years. Two major deglacial radiocarbon shifts occurred in phase with centennial atmospheric CO2 rises at 14.8 thousand and 11.7 thousand years ago. We interpret these radiocarbon-enriched signals to represent two short-lived (less than 500 years) “overshoot” events, with Atlantic meridional overturning stronger than that of the modern era. These results provide compelling evidence for a close coupling of ocean circulation and centennial climate events during the last deglaciation.

  12. Synchronous centennial abrupt events in the ocean and atmosphere during the last deglaciation.

    PubMed

    Chen, Tianyu; Robinson, Laura F; Burke, Andrea; Southon, John; Spooner, Peter; Morris, Paul J; Ng, Hong Chin

    2015-09-25

    Antarctic ice-core data reveal that the atmosphere experienced abrupt centennial increases in CO2 concentration during the last deglaciation (~18 thousand to 11 thousand years ago). Establishing the role of ocean circulation in these changes requires high-resolution, accurately dated marine records. Here, we report radiocarbon data from uranium-thorium-dated deep-sea corals in the Equatorial Atlantic and Drake Passage over the past 25,000 years. Two major deglacial radiocarbon shifts occurred in phase with centennial atmospheric CO2 rises at 14.8 thousand and 11.7 thousand years ago. We interpret these radiocarbon-enriched signals to represent two short-lived (less than 500 years) "overshoot" events, with Atlantic meridional overturning stronger than that of the modern era. These results provide compelling evidence for a close coupling of ocean circulation and centennial climate events during the last deglaciation. PMID:26404835

  13. Response to Comment on "Abrupt warming events drove Late Pleistocene Holarctic megafaunal turnover".

    PubMed

    Cooper, Alan; Turney, Chris; Hughen, Konrad

    2016-02-26

    Rasmussen and Svensson correctly point out that there is currently no satisfactory method to fully align the Greenland and Cariaco Basin records of climate change. However, our approach using interstadial onsets as tie-points allows direct comparison between radiocarbon dates and Greenland climate records. Crucially, both the standard Greenland and the merged Greenland-Cariaco time scales show that interstadial warming was associated with megafaunal genetic transitions. PMID:26917762

  14. Live cell tracking of symmetry break in actin cytoskeleton triggered by abrupt changes in micromechanical environments.

    PubMed

    Inoue, S; Frank, V; Hörning, M; Kaufmann, S; Yoshikawa, H Y; Madsen, J P; Lewis, A L; Armes, S P; Tanaka, M

    2015-12-01

    With the aid of stimulus-responsive hydrogel substrates composed of ABA triblock copolymer micelles, we monitored the morphological dynamics of myoblast (C2C12) cells in response to an abrupt change in the substrate elasticity by live cell imaging. The remodeling of actin cytoskeletons could be monitored by means of transient transfection with LifeAct-GFP. Dynamic changes in the orientational order of actin filaments were characterized by an order parameter, which enables one to generalize the mechanically induced actin cytoskeletons as a break of symmetry. The critical role that acto-myosin complexes play in the morphological transition was verified by the treatment of cells with myosin II inhibitor (blebbistatin) and the fluorescence localization of focal adhesion contacts. Such dynamically tunable hydrogels can be utilized as in vitro cellular micro-environments that can exert time-dependent stimuli to mechanically regulate target cells. PMID:26347909

  15. Help the climate, change your diet: A cross-sectional study on how to involve consumers in a transition to a low-carbon society.

    PubMed

    de Boer, Joop; de Witt, Annick; Aiking, Harry

    2016-03-01

    This paper explores how the transition to a low-carbon society to mitigate climate change can be better supported by a diet change. As climate mitigation is not the focal goal of consumers who are buying or consuming food, the study highlighted the role of motivational and cognitive background factors, including possible spillover effects. Consumer samples in the Netherlands (n = 527) and the United States (n = 556) were asked to evaluate food-related and energy-related mitigation options in a design that included three food-related options with very different mitigation potentials (i.e. eating less meat, buying local and seasonal food, and buying organic food). They rated each option's effectiveness and their willingness to adopt it. The outstanding effectiveness of the less meat option (as established by climate experts) was recognized by merely 12% of the Dutch and 6% of the American sample. Many more participants gave fairly positive effectiveness ratings and this was correlated with belief in human causation of climate change, personal importance of climate change, and being a moderate meat eater. Willingness to adopt the less meat option increased with its perceived effectiveness and, controlling for that, it was significantly related to various motivationally relevant factors. The local food option appealed to consumer segments with overlapping but partly different motivational orientations. It was concluded that a transition to a low carbon society can significantly benefit from a special focus on the food-related options to involve more consumers and to improve mitigation. PMID:26673412

  16. Stability, transition and turbulence

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hussaini, M. Y.

    1987-01-01

    A glimpse is provided of the research program in stability, transition and turbulence based on numerical simulations. This program includes both the so-called abrupt and the restrained transition processes. Attention is confined to the prototype problems of channel flow and the parallel boundary layer in the former category and the Taylor-Couette flow in the latter category. It covers both incompressible flows and supersonic flows. Some representative results are presented.

  17. Stability, transition and turbulence

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hussaini, M. Y.

    1987-01-01

    A glimpse is provided of the research program in stability, transition, and turbulence based on numerical simulations. This program includes both the so-called abrupt and the restrained transition processes. Attention is confined to the prototype problems of channel flow and the parallel boundary layer in the former category and the Taylor-Couette flow in the latter category. It covers both incompressible flows and supersonic flows. Some representative results are presented.

  18. Role of Acclimatization in Weather-Related Human Mortality During the Transition Seasons of Autumn and Spring in a Thermally Extreme Mid-Latitude Continental Climate

    PubMed Central

    de Freitas, Christopher R.; Grigorieva, Elena A.

    2015-01-01

    Human mortality is closely related to natural climate-determined levels of thermal environmental stress and the resulting thermophysiological strain. Most climate-mortality research has focused on seasonal extremes during winter and summer when mortality is the highest, while relatively little attention has been paid to mortality during the transitional seasons of autumn and spring. The body acclimatizes to heat in the summer and cold in winter and readjusts through acclimatization during the transitions between the two during which time the body experiences the thermophysiological strain of readjustment. To better understand the influences of weather on mortality through the acclimatization process, the aim here is to examine the periods that link very cold and very warms seasons. The study uses the Acclimatization Thermal Strain Index (ATSI), which is a comparative measure of short-term thermophysiological impact on the body. ATSI centers on heat exchange with the body’s core via the respiratory system, which cannot be protected. The analysis is based on data for a major city in the climatic region of the Russian Far East characterized by very hot summers and extremely cold winters. The results show that although mortality peaks in winter (January) and is at its lowest in summer (August), there is not a smooth rise through autumn nor a smooth decline through spring. A secondary peak occurs in autumn (October) with a smaller jump in May. This suggests the acclimatization from warm-to-cold produces more thermophysiological strain than the transition from cold-to-warm. The study shows that ATSI is a useful metric for quantifying the extent to which biophysical adaptation plays a role in increased strain on the body during re-acclimatization and for this reason is a more appropriate climatic indictor than air temperature alone. The work gives useful bioclimatic information on risks involved in transitional seasons in regions characterized by climatic extremes. This

  19. Role of Acclimatization in Weather-Related Human Mortality During the Transition Seasons of Autumn and Spring in a Thermally Extreme Mid-Latitude Continental Climate.

    PubMed

    de Freitas, Christopher R; Grigorieva, Elena A

    2015-12-01

    Human mortality is closely related to natural climate-determined levels of thermal environmental stress and the resulting thermophysiological strain. Most climate-mortality research has focused on seasonal extremes during winter and summer when mortality is the highest, while relatively little attention has been paid to mortality during the transitional seasons of autumn and spring. The body acclimatizes to heat in the summer and cold in winter and readjusts through acclimatization during the transitions between the two during which time the body experiences the thermophysiological strain of readjustment. To better understand the influences of weather on mortality through the acclimatization process, the aim here is to examine the periods that link very cold and very warms seasons. The study uses the Acclimatization Thermal Strain Index (ATSI), which is a comparative measure of short-term thermophysiological impact on the body. ATSI centers on heat exchange with the body’s core via the respiratory system, which cannot be protected. The analysis is based on data for a major city in the climatic region of the Russian Far East characterized by very hot summers and extremely cold winters. The results show that although mortality peaks in winter (January) and is at its lowest in summer (August), there is not a smooth rise through autumn nor a smooth decline through spring. A secondary peak occurs in autumn (October) with a smaller jump in May. This suggests the acclimatization from warm-to-cold produces more thermophysiological strain than the transition from cold-to-warm. The study shows that ATSI is a useful metric for quantifying the extent to which biophysical adaptation plays a role in increased strain on the body during re-acclimatization and for this reason is a more appropriate climatic indictor than air temperature alone. The work gives useful bioclimatic information on risks involved in transitional seasons in regions characterized by climatic extremes. This

  20. Zooplankton patch dynamics: daily gap formation over abrupt topography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Genin, Amatzia; Greene, Charles; Haury, Loren; Wiebe, Peter; Gal, Gideon; Kaartvedt, Stein; Meir, Eli; Fey, Connie; Dawson, Jim

    1994-05-01

    Net tow and acoustic surveys of zooplankton distributions were made over and around Sixtymile Bank (110 km southwest of San Diego, California). Gaps devoid of vertically migrating zooplankton were formed every evening above the summit of the bank. Interactions between the migrating animals, their predators, physical advection and the local topography appear to determine the gap formation and dynamics. Gaps were transported downstream during the night and appeared to disintegrate slowly through vertical swimming behavior, current shear and mixing processes. Patch dynamics following gap formation, mediated by both ocean currents and animal behavior, should augment the spatial heterogeneity of zooplankton and affect marine food webs in areas where abrupt topography features are common.

  1. Shock wave interaction with an abrupt area change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Salas, Manuel D.

    1991-01-01

    The wave patterns that occur when a shock wave interacts with an abrupt area changed are analyzed in terms of the incident shock wave Mach number and area-jump ratio. The solutions predicted by a semi-similar models are in good agreement with those obtained numerically from the quasi-one-dimensional time-dependent Euler equations. The entropy production for the wave system is defined and the principle of minimum entropy production is used to resolve a nonuniqueness problem of the self-similar model.

  2. Impacts of climate change on vegetation, hydrological and socio-economic droughts in a transitional wet-to-dry Mediterranean region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nunes, João Pedro; Pulquério, Mário; Grosso, Nuno; Duarte Santos, Filipe; João Cruz, Maria

    2015-04-01

    The Tagus river basin is located in a transitional region between humid and semi-arid climate. The lower part of the basin is a strategic source of water for Portugal, providing water for agricultural irrigation, hydropower generation, and domestic water supplies for over 4 million people. Climate change in this region is expected to lead to higher temperatures and lower rainfall, therefore increasing climatic aridity. In this transitional region, this could lead to an increased frequency of severe droughts, threatening climatic support for current agricultural and forestry practices, as well as the sustainability of domestic water supplies. This work evaluated the impacts of climate change on drought frequency and severity for the Portuguese part of the Tagus river basin. Climate change scenarios for 2010-2100 (A2 greenhouse emission scenarios) were statistically downscaled for the study area. They were evaluated with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) eco-hydrological model, which simulated vegetation water demand and drought stress, soil water availability, irrigation abstraction, streamflow, reservoir storage and groundwater recharge. Water inflows from Spain were estimated using an empirical climate-based model. Drought occurrence and severity was analyzed in terms of: * meteorological drought, based on (i) the Standardized Precipitation Index and (ii) the Aridity Index; * vegetation/agricultural drought, based on plant water stress; * hydrological drought, based on (i) streamflow rates and (ii) reservoir storage; * socio-economic drought, based on (i) the capacity of the main reservoir in the system (Castelo de Bode) to sustain hydropower and domestic supplies, and (ii) the rate of groundwater extraction vs. irrigation demands for the cultures located in the intensive cultivation regions of the Lezírias near the Tagus estuary. The results indicate a trend of increasing frequency and severity of most drought types during the XXIst century, with a

  3. Impacts of land use and land cover change on regional climate: a case study in the agro-pastoral transitional zone of China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cao, Qian; Yu, Deyong; Georgescu, Matei; Han, Zhe; Wu, Jianguo

    2015-12-01

    Assessing the impacts of land use and land cover change (LUCC) on regional climate is essential for understanding land-atmosphere interactions and for designing climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. Using the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model, we examined how different land use and land cover patterns affect regional climate in the agro-pastoral transitional zone of North China, whose environmental and socioeconomic conditions are sensitive to climate change. We parameterized WRF using land use and land cover maps corresponding to 2001 and 2010 conditions, which differ in the representation of four land surface biophysical parameters: vegetation fraction, leaf area index (LAI), albedo, and emissivity. From 2001 to 2010, vegetation fraction and LAI increased in summer, emissivity increased and albedo decreased in winter. Our WRF simulations show that differences in land use and land cover patterns led to widespread reduction in summer temperature with local cooling on the order of 1 °C, and extensive increase in winter temperature with local warming exceeding 0.8 °C. By contrast, simulations using the default landscape representation, provided by WRF itself, show only minor and random changes in temperature. Model evaluation further reveals that our simulations with appropriate land surface properties improve the performance of the WRF model. Our findings demonstrate that LUCC in Northern China has altered the regional climate over the past decade. The magnitude and spatial patterns of temperature changes quantified by our simulations provide useful information for understanding the impacts of LUCC on climate and for developing mitigation and adaptation strategies in arid and semiarid regions.

  4. New Measurements of 14C Provide Constraints on Sources of a Large Atmospheric Methane Increase During the Younger Dryas - Preboreal Abrupt Warming Event

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petrenko, V. V.; Severinghaus, J. P.; Smith, A.; Riedel, K.; Brook, E.; Schaefer, H.; Baggenstos, D.; Harth, C. M.; Hua, Q.; Buizert, C.; Schilt, A.; Fain, X.; Mitchell, L.; Bauska, T. K.; Orsi, A. J.; Weiss, R. F.

    2014-12-01

    Thawing permafrost and marine methane hydrate destabilization have been proposed as large sources of methane to the atmosphere in the future warming world. To evaluate this hypothesis it is useful to ask whether such methane releases happened during past warming events. The two major abrupt warming events of the last deglaciation, Oldest Dryas - Bølling (OD-B) and Younger Dryas - Preboreal (YD-PB), were associated with large (up to 50%) increases in atmospheric methane (CH4) concentrations. The sources of these large warming-driven CH4 increases remain incompletely understood, with possible contributions from tropical and boreal wetlands, thawing permafrost as well as marine CH4 hydrates. We present new measurements of 14C of paleoatmospheric CH4 over the YD-PB transition from ancient ice outcropping at Taylor Glacier, Antarctica. 14C can unambiguously identify CH4 emissions from "old carbon" sources, such as permafrost and CH4 hydrates. The only prior study of paleoatmospheric 14CH4 (from Greenland ice) suggested that wetlands were the main driver of the YD-PB CH4 increase, but the results were weakened by an unexpected and poorly understood 14CH4 component from in situ cosmogenic production directly in near-surface ice. In this new study, we have been able to accurately characterize and correct for the cosmogenic 14CH4 component. Preliminary analysis of the results indicates that ≈10% of the overall CH4 source to the atmosphere during the nearly-constant climate of the YD was attributable to 14C-free sources. This 14C-free source fraction increased slightly over the YD-PB transition, however, wetlands were nonetheless the main driver of the CH4 increase. Final analysis and interpretation of the 14CH4 data are currently in progress.

  5. Usage leading to an abrupt collapse of connectivity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stäger, D. V.; Araújo, N. A. M.; Herrmann, H. J.

    2014-10-01

    Network infrastructures are essential for the distribution of resources such as electricity and water. Typical strategies to assess their resilience focus on the impact of a sequence of random or targeted failures of network nodes or links. Here we consider a more realistic scenario, where elements fail based on their usage. We propose a dynamic model of transport based on the Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld sandpile model where links fail after they have transported more than an amount μ (threshold) of the resource and we investigate it on the square lattice. As we deal with a new model, we provide insight on its fundamental behavior and dependence on parameters. We observe that, for low values of the threshold due to a positive feedback of link failure, an avalanche develops that leads to an abrupt collapse of the lattice. By contrast, for high thresholds the lattice breaks down in an uncorrelated fashion. We determine the critical threshold μ* separating these two regimes and show how it depends on the toppling threshold of the nodes and the mass increment added stepwise to the system. We find that the time of major disconnection is well described with a linear dependence on μ . Furthermore, we propose a lower bound for μ* by measuring the strength of the dynamics leading to abrupt collapses.

  6. Fluvial response to abrupt global warming at the Palaeocene/Eocene boundary.

    PubMed

    Foreman, Brady Z; Heller, Paul L; Clementz, Mark T

    2012-11-01

    Climate strongly affects the production of sediment from mountain catchments as well as its transport and deposition within adjacent sedimentary basins. However, identifying climatic influences on basin stratigraphy is complicated by nonlinearities, feedback loops, lag times, buffering and convergence among processes within the sediment routeing system. The Palaeocene/Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) arguably represents the most abrupt and dramatic instance of global warming in the Cenozoic era and has been proposed to be a geologic analogue for anthropogenic climate change. Here we evaluate the fluvial response in western Colorado to the PETM. Concomitant with the carbon isotope excursion marking the PETM we document a basin-wide shift to thick, multistoried, sheets of sandstone characterized by variable channel dimensions, dominance of upper flow regime sedimentary structures, and prevalent crevasse splay deposits. This progradation of coarse-grained lithofacies matches model predictions for rapid increases in sediment flux and discharge, instigated by regional vegetation overturn and enhanced monsoon precipitation. Yet the change in fluvial deposition persisted long after the approximately 200,000-year-long PETM with its increased carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere, emphasizing the strong role the protracted transmission of catchment responses to distant depositional systems has in constructing large-scale basin stratigraphy. Our results, combined with evidence for increased dissolved loads and terrestrial clay export to world oceans, indicate that the transient hyper-greenhouse climate of the PETM may represent a major geomorphic 'system-clearing event', involving a global mobilization of dissolved and solid sediment loads on Earth's surface. PMID:23128230

  7. Evidence from Ice-Rafted Debris and Sediment Provenance for a Dynamic East Antarctic Ice Sheet During the Mid-Miocene Climate Transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, T.; Pierce, E. L.; van de Flierdt, T.; Hemming, S. R.; Cook, C. P.; Passchier, S.; Sangiorgi, F.; Bijl, P.

    2015-12-01

    The Antarctic ice sheets underwent a major expansion during the Mid-Miocene Climate Transition, around 14 Ma, lowering eustatic sea level by perhaps 50m, based on evidence from benthic oxygen isotope records and sea level indicators. However, direct evidence of changes in the ice sheet is limited to sites in or close to the Transantarctic Mountains. Here we present evidence for ice sheet change from two widely separated sites offshore of East Antarctica, IODP Site U1356, Wilkes Land, and ODP Site 1165, Prydz Bay. Between 14.1 and 13.8 Ma at these sites, episodic pulses of ice-rafted debris (IRD), including dropstones, were deposited in concentrations exceeding those in the rest of the Miocene. These repeated pulses of IRD-bearing icebergs indicate large and repeated advances and retreats of the ice sheet during the course of the transition to a larger and relatively more stable ice sheet. We conducted provenance analyses on the mid-Miocene IRD and sediments. At Site U1356, 40Ar/39Ar ages of ice-rafted hornblende grains show that a major ice drainage was situated along the inland part of the Mertz Shear Zone and its southward extension along the west side of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin, while Nd isotope data from the terrigenous fine fraction show that the ice margin periodically expanded from high ground well into the Wilkes Subglacial Basin during periods of ice growth. At Site 1165, 40Ar/39Ar on dropstones indicate provenance from both the Lambert Glacier region and the part of Wilkes Land that contains the Aurora Subglacial Basin. The two sites provide a direct record of repeated collapse and re-growth of ice in at least two of East Antarctica's main drainage basins during the mid-Miocene climate transition. We will set our ice-rafted debris and provenance evidence for cryosphere change in the context of mid-Miocene climate records.

  8. Warm to cold polar climate transitions over the last 15,000 years: A paleoclimatology record from the raised beaches of northern Norway

    SciTech Connect

    Fletcher, C.H. ); Fairbridge, R.H. ); Moeller, J.K. ); Long, A.J. )

    1991-03-01

    Because of the strength of the cold, dry arctic high pressure vortex, and the absence of multiple air-mass sources, climate records from the polar region tend to display a cleaner signal than those from mid-latitude settings. The high arctic presents unique opportunities for the prediction of the natural background pattern of climate change prior to the disturbances generated by manmade atmospheric pollutants. The Varanger Peninsula of northernmost Norway was extensively depressed by an ice dome during the last glacial stage. Deglaciation was accompanied by isostatic recovery at a steady though exponentially decaying rate. Superimposed on the rising land is a discontinuous staircase of cobble beach ridges, deposited during the postglacial period by storms at the coast. The ridges are constructed during brief episodes of weather- and tide-related elevation of sea level and wave run-up. Storminess periods can only occur in the absence of sea ice associated with several decades of mild, relatively warm temperatures. A history of local relative sea level is constructed from over 70 radiocarbon dates of various water-level indicators. The sea-level history is used to construct a chronology of beach-ridge building that documents the cyclic, a periodic nature of arctic storminess conditions. The authors date a dynamic signal with multiple climate transitions from warm, stormy conditions to cool, calm conditions occurring roughly every 200 years between 15,000 years ago to 10,000 years ago. Throughout the Holocene the climate is more settled with longer periods separating the major warm to cool transitions.

  9. Stalagmite-inferred abrupt hydroclimate changes in the central Mediterranean over the past 6500 years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, H. M.; Shen, C. C.; Jiang, X.; Wang, Y.; Mii, H. S.

    2015-12-01

    Mediterranean, as one of the global climate change "hot spots", was faced with severe drought over the recent decades. Investigation of regional paleo-hydroclimate evolution helps improve climate projection and adaption strategy. Here, we present a new decadal-resolved record documenting hydroclimate in the central Mediterranean from an Italian stalagmite since 6500 years ago. Eighty high-precision absolute U-Th dates with 2-sigma uncertainty better than ±20 years and 560 oxygen isotopic ratio data show several abrupt drying events with an average of 600 mm precipitation decrease in less than 80 years since the mid-Holocene. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) could dominantly govern the centennial-scale hydroclimate variability, especially for a period of 4500 to 2000 years ago. Total solar irradiance (TSI) also partially affected this regional precipitation. The obscure relationship between stalagmite and global/local mean surface temperature sequences, in contradict to previous studies, implies complex internal feedback of global warming and atmospheric circulation in the Mediterranean. Our result suggests that the twenty-first century Mediterranean drying trend is significant but not unprecedented in the past six thousand years.

  10. Abrupt pre-Bølling-Allerød warming and circulation changes in the deep ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thiagarajan, Nivedita; Subhas, Adam V.; Southon, John R.; Eiler, John M.; Adkins, Jess F.

    2014-07-01

    Several large and rapid changes in atmospheric temperature and the partial pressure of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere--probably linked to changes in deep ocean circulation--occurred during the last deglaciation. The abrupt temperature rise in the Northern Hemisphere and the restart of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at the start of the Bølling-Allerød interstadial, 14,700 years ago, are among the most dramatic deglacial events, but their underlying physical causes are not known. Here we show that the release of heat from warm waters in the deep North Atlantic Ocean probably triggered the Bølling-Allerød warming and reinvigoration of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Our results are based on coupled radiocarbon and uranium-series dates, along with clumped isotope temperature estimates, from water column profiles of fossil deep-sea corals in a limited area of the western North Atlantic. We find that during Heinrich stadial 1 (the cool period immediately before the Bølling-Allerød interstadial), the deep ocean was about three degrees Celsius warmer than shallower waters above. This reversal of the ocean's usual thermal stratification pre-dates the Bølling-Allerød warming and must have been associated with increased salinity at depth to preserve the static stability of the water column. The depleted radiocarbon content of the warm and salty water mass implies a long-term disconnect from rapid surface exchanges, and, although uncertainties remain, is most consistent with a Southern Ocean source. The Heinrich stadial 1 ocean profile is distinct from the modern water column, that for the Last Glacial Maximum and that for the Younger Dryas, suggesting that the patterns we observe are a unique feature of the deglacial climate system. Our observations indicate that the deep ocean influenced dramatic Northern Hemisphere warming by storing heat at depth that preconditioned the system for a subsequent abrupt overturning event during the

  11. A regime shift in the subpolar gyre strength due to a sudden transition in the North Atlantic climate during the Little Ice Age

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moreno-Chamarro, Eduardo; Zanchettin, Davide; Lohmann, Katja; Jungclaus, Johann

    2015-04-01

    Recent paleoceanographic reconstructions of the subpolar North Atlantic variability during the last millennium describe oceanic conditions associated with a weaker subpolar gyre during the Little Ice Age (~1400-1700) after a relatively strong phase during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (~950-1250). However, mechanism(s) behind such a relatively rapid shift remains unclear. Here, we investigate the dynamics of the subpolar gyre and its role on driving the exchanges of heat and freshwater between the northern North Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean over the last millennium in an ensemble of three transient and an unperturbed-climate simulation performed with the Max Planck Institute-Earth system model for paleo-applications. In particular, we focus on the dynamics underlying a decadal-scale transition in the subpolar gyre from an initial strong to a later weak state, which is found in one of the last-millennium transient simulations and shows characteristic features similar to the reconstructed event. Our results indicate that the simulated shift is triggered by a rapid increase in the sea-ice transport from the Arctic toward the subpolar North Atlantic, which causes a broad freshening of the Labrador Sea surface and, thereby, a shut-down in deep oceanic mixing. As a result, the subpolar gyre weakens. This in turn activates a series of long-lasting feedbacks relating oceanic and atmospheric circulation, sea-ice extent, and oceanic deep convection in the Labrador Sea that keep the North Atlantic in an anomalous state for about 250 years. A reorganization of the North Atlantic/Arctic ocean-atmosphere coupled system, sustained by internal feedbacks acting on multicentennial time scales, can therefore result in a new subpolar gyre state. The simulated shift coincides in time with a two-decade-long cluster of relatively small volcanic eruptions which leads to prominent thickening of the Arctic ice cap previous to the shift. Sensitivity experiments will be performed to further

  12. Global climate change

    PubMed Central

    Alley, Richard B.; Lynch-Stieglitz, Jean; Severinghaus, Jeffrey P.

    1999-01-01

    Most of the last 100,000 years or longer has been characterized by large, abrupt, regional-to-global climate changes. Agriculture and industry have developed during anomalously stable climatic conditions. New, high-resolution analyses of sediment cores using multiproxy and physically based transfer functions allow increasingly confident interpretation of these past changes as having been caused by “band jumps” between modes of operation of the climate system. Recurrence of such band jumps is possible and might be affected by human activities. PMID:10468545

  13. Global climate change.

    PubMed

    Alley, R B; Lynch-Stieglitz, J; Severinghaus, J P

    1999-08-31

    Most of the last 100,000 years or longer has been characterized by large, abrupt, regional-to-global climate changes. Agriculture and industry have developed during anomalously stable climatic conditions. New, high-resolution analyses of sediment cores using multiproxy and physically based transfer functions allow increasingly confident interpretation of these past changes as having been caused by "band jumps" between modes of operation of the climate system. Recurrence of such band jumps is possible and might be affected by human activities. PMID:10468545

  14. Jurassic climate mode governed by ocean gateway

    PubMed Central

    Korte, Christoph; Hesselbo, Stephen P.; Ullmann, Clemens V.; Dietl, Gerd; Ruhl, Micha; Schweigert, Günter; Thibault, Nicolas

    2015-01-01

    The Jurassic (∼201–145 Myr ago) was long considered a warm ‘greenhouse' period; more recently cool, even ‘icehouse' episodes have been postulated. However, the mechanisms governing transition between so-called Warm Modes and Cool Modes are poorly known. Here we present a new large high-quality oxygen-isotope dataset from an interval that includes previously suggested mode transitions. Our results show an especially abrupt earliest Middle Jurassic (∼174 Ma) mid-latitude cooling of seawater by as much as 10 °C in the north–south Laurasian Seaway, a marine passage that connected the equatorial Tethys Ocean to the Boreal Sea. Coincidence in timing with large-scale regional lithospheric updoming of the North Sea region is striking, and we hypothesize that northward oceanic heat transport was impeded by uplift, triggering Cool Mode conditions more widely. This extreme climate-mode transition provides a counter-example to other Mesozoic transitions linked to quantitative change in atmospheric greenhouse gas content. PMID:26658694

  15. Jurassic climate mode governed by ocean gateway.

    PubMed

    Korte, Christoph; Hesselbo, Stephen P; Ullmann, Clemens V; Dietl, Gerd; Ruhl, Micha; Schweigert, Günter; Thibault, Nicolas

    2015-01-01

    The Jurassic (∼201-145 Myr ago) was long considered a warm 'greenhouse' period; more recently cool, even 'icehouse' episodes have been postulated. However, the mechanisms governing transition between so-called Warm Modes and Cool Modes are poorly known. Here we present a new large high-quality oxygen-isotope dataset from an interval that includes previously suggested mode transitions. Our results show an especially abrupt earliest Middle Jurassic (∼174 Ma) mid-latitude cooling of seawater by as much as 10 °C in the north-south Laurasian Seaway, a marine passage that connected the equatorial Tethys Ocean to the Boreal Sea. Coincidence in timing with large-scale regional lithospheric updoming of the North Sea region is striking, and we hypothesize that northward oceanic heat transport was impeded by uplift, triggering Cool Mode conditions more widely. This extreme climate-mode transition provides a counter-example to other Mesozoic transitions linked to quantitative change in atmospheric greenhouse gas content. PMID:26658694

  16. Jurassic climate mode governed by ocean gateway

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Korte, Christoph; Hesselbo, Stephen P.; Ullmann, Clemens V.; Dietl, Gerd; Ruhl, Micha; Schweigert, Günter; Thibault, Nicolas

    2015-12-01

    The Jurassic (~201-145 Myr ago) was long considered a warm `greenhouse' period; more recently cool, even `icehouse' episodes have been postulated. However, the mechanisms governing transition between so-called Warm Modes and Cool Modes are poorly known. Here we present a new large high-quality oxygen-isotope dataset from an interval that includes previously suggested mode transitions. Our results show an especially abrupt earliest Middle Jurassic (~174 Ma) mid-latitude cooling of seawater by as much as 10 °C in the north-south Laurasian Seaway, a marine passage that connected the equatorial Tethys Ocean to the Boreal Sea. Coincidence in timing with large-scale regional lithospheric updoming of the North Sea region is striking, and we hypothesize that northward oceanic heat transport was impeded by uplift, triggering Cool Mode conditions more widely. This extreme climate-mode transition provides a counter-example to other Mesozoic transitions linked to quantitative change in atmospheric greenhouse gas content.

  17. The effect of abrupt permafrost thaw on the water table, vegetation and carbon feedback: results from a sub-arctic peatland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malhotra, A.; Roulet, N. T.

    2015-12-01

    Uncertainty in estimating the carbon loss from thawing ice-rich permafrost is attributed, in part, to the abrupt changes in ecosystem structure and function after thaw. In a thawing peat plateau in the discontinuous permafrost zone (Stordalen, Mire, Sweden; ST), we tested for the occurrence of abrupt changes in hydrology and the effects of these changes on the water table and vegetation feedback. Using a chronosequence approach along three transects that capture several transitional thaw stages, we found abrupt hydrological changes following thaw, wherein adjacent areas (1 m apart) had unrelated water table depth (WTD) fluctuations. Despite these abrupt changes, surprisingly, the same Gaussian model of plant abundance explained by WTD could be applied to data from both ST and an undisturbed ombrotrophic peatland (Mer Bleue Bog, Canada; MB). However, the Gaussian model fit was better at MB than at ST. Furthermore, explanatory power of the model at ST decreased with increasing permafrost thaw. While water table and vegetation feedback in a thawing landscape is similar to that of a peatland without transitional land cover types, the vegetation and carbon feedback is complicated by non-linear shifts in the partitioning of gaseous effluxes between CO2 and CH4. These results will be presented along with key implications for modeling carbon loss from thawing landscapes.

  18. Intrusion detection robust to slow and abrupt lighting changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Makarov, Aleksej; Vesin, Jean-Marc; Reymond, Florian

    1996-03-01

    In this communication we present an image based object detection algorithm which is applied to intrusion detection. The algorithm is based on the comparison of input edges and temporally filtered edges of the background. It is characterized by very low computational and memory loads, high sensitivity to the presence of physical intruders and high robustness to slow and abrupt lighting changes. The algorithm is implementable on a cheap digital signal processor. It was tested on a data base of about one thousand gray-level CIF-format frames representing static scenes with various contents (light sources, intruders, lighting changes), and neither false alarm nor detection failure occurred. The number of parameters involved by the algorithm is very low, and their values do not require a fine tuning. The same set of parameters performs equally well in different conditions: different scenes, various lighting changes, various object sizes.

  19. Abrupt tectonics and rapid slab detachment with grain damage.

    PubMed

    Bercovici, David; Schubert, Gerald; Ricard, Yanick

    2015-02-01

    A simple model for necking and detachment of subducting slabs is developed to include the coupling between grain-sensitive rheology and grain-size evolution with damage. Necking is triggered by thickened buoyant crust entrained into a subduction zone, in which case grain damage accelerates necking and allows for relatively rapid slab detachment, i.e., within 1 My, depending on the size of the crustal plug. Thick continental crustal plugs can cause rapid necking while smaller plugs characteristic of ocean plateaux cause slower necking; oceanic lithosphere with normal or slightly thickened crust subducts without necking. The model potentially explains how large plateaux or continental crust drawn into subduction zones can cause slab loss and rapid changes in plate motion and/or induce abrupt continental rebound. PMID:25605890

  20. Abrupt tectonics and rapid slab detachment with grain damage

    PubMed Central

    Bercovici, David; Schubert, Gerald; Ricard, Yanick

    2015-01-01

    A simple model for necking and detachment of subducting slabs is developed to include the coupling between grain-sensitive rheology and grain-size evolution with damage. Necking is triggered by thickened buoyant crust entrained into a subduction zone, in which case grain damage accelerates necking and allows for relatively rapid slab detachment, i.e., within 1 My, depending on the size of the crustal plug. Thick continental crustal plugs can cause rapid necking while smaller plugs characteristic of ocean plateaux cause slower necking; oceanic lithosphere with normal or slightly thickened crust subducts without necking. The model potentially explains how large plateaux or continental crust drawn into subduction zones can cause slab loss and rapid changes in plate motion and/or induce abrupt continental rebound. PMID:25605890

  1. East African mid-Holocene wet-dry transition recorded in palaeo-shorelines of Lake Turkana, northern Kenya Rift

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garcin, Yannick; Melnick, Daniel; Strecker, Manfred R.; Olago, Daniel; Tiercelin, Jean-Jacques

    2012-05-01

    The 'wet' early to mid-Holocene of tropical Africa, with its enhanced monsoon, ended with an abrupt shift toward drier conditions and was ultimately replaced by a drier climate that has persisted until the present day. The forcing mechanisms, the timing, and the spatial extent of this major climatic transition are not well understood and remain the subject of ongoing research. We have used a detailed palaeo-shoreline record from Lake Turkana (Kenya) to decipher and characterise this marked climatic transition in East Africa. We present a high-precision survey of well-preserved palaeo-shorelines, new radiocarbon ages from shoreline deposits, and oxygen-isotope measurements on freshwater mollusk shells to elucidate the Holocene moisture history from former lake water-levels in this climatically sensitive region. In combination with previously published data our study shows that during the early Holocene the water-level in Lake Turkana was high and the lake overflowed temporarily into the White Nile drainage system. During the mid-Holocene (~ 5270 ± 300 cal. yr BP), however, the lake water-level fell by ~ 50 m, coeval with major episodes of aridity on the African continent. A comparison between palaeo-hydrological and archaeological data from the Turkana Basin suggests that the mid-Holocene climatic transition was associated with fundamental changes in prehistoric cultures, highlighting the significance of natural climate variability and associated periods of protracted drought as major environmental stress factors affecting human occupation in the East African Rift System.

  2. Climate and the collapse of civilization

    SciTech Connect

    Abate, T.

    1994-09-01

    This article looks at the archaeological debate over two important questions: whether abrupt climate changes caused or contributed to the collapse of ancient civilizations and, if the archaeological and paleoclimatological record yields evidence to that effect, what would it mean in a world that today debates whether industrial civilization is altering Earth's climate with uncertain consequences. Areas discussed include the following: climate hints from archaeological sites; hesitations about whether climate change caused civilizations to collapse; and the interdisciplinary checks on each side.

  3. Energy budget increases reduce mean streamflow more than snow–rain transitions: using integrated modeling to isolate climate change impacts on Rocky Mountain hydrology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Foster, Lauren M.; Bearup, Lindsay A.; Molotch, Noah P.; Brooks, Paul D.; Maxwell, Reed M.

    2016-04-01

    In snow-dominated mountain regions, a warming climate is expected to alter two drivers of hydrology: (1) decrease the fraction of precipitation falling as snow; and (2) increase surface energy available to drive evapotranspiration. This study uses a novel integrated modeling approach to explicitly separate energy budget increases via warming from precipitation phase transitions from snow to rain in two mountain headwaters transects of the central Rocky Mountains. Both phase transitions and energy increases had significant, though unique, impacts on semi-arid mountain hydrology in our simulations. A complete shift in precipitation from snow to rain reduced streamflow between 11% and 18%, while 4 °C of uniform warming reduced streamflow between 19% and 23%, suggesting that changes in energy-driven evaporative loss, between 27% and 29% for these uniform warming scenarios, may be the dominant driver of annual mean streamflow in a warming climate. Phase changes induced a flashier system, making water availability more susceptible to precipitation variability and eliminating the runoff signature characteristic of snowmelt-dominated systems. The impact of a phase change on mean streamflow was reduced as aridity increased from west to east of the continental divide.

  4. Mammalian Faunas as Indicators of Environmental and Climatic Changes in Spain during the Pliocene-Quaternary Transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Montuire, Sophie

    1999-07-01

    The study of mammal communities provides useful knowledge of paleoenvironments and paleoclimates during the Quaternary Period, and better documentation about the main fossil sites is making this task easier. Paleoecological reconstructions of this study are based on (i) rodent evolution and species richness, (ii) the cenogram method, and (iii) methods for quantifying climatic parameters. These analyses applied to a Pliocene-Quaternary faunal sequence of Spain indicate that a climatic change occurred at the end of the Pliocene when considerable cooling led to the onset of the glacial-interglacial cycles. Subsequently, during the Quaternary Period, alternating environmental patterns occurred, with a rather open and arid environment during the cold phases that contrasts with a somewhat more closed and comparatively wet environment during warmer phases. These observations are generalized from Spain to the remainder of the continent, noting that climatic conditions were less harsh and more arid in Spain than elsewhere in Europe.

  5. Tropical and Subtropical Cloud Transitions in Weather and Climate Prediction Models: The GCSS/WGNE Pacific Cross-Section Intercomparison (GPCI)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Teixeira, J.; Cardoso, S.; Bonazzola, M.; Cole, J.; DeGenio, A.; DeMott, C.; Franklin, C.; Hannay, C.; Jakob, C.; Jiao, Y.; Karlsson, J.; Kitagawa, H.; Kohler, M.; Kuwano-Yoshida, A.; LeDrian, C.; Turk, F. J.

    2011-01-01

    A model evaluation approach is proposed in which weather and climate prediction models are analyzed along a Pacific Ocean cross section, from the stratocumulus regions off the coast of California, across the shallow convection dominated trade winds, to the deep convection regions of the ITCZ the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Cloud System Study/Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (GCSS/ WGNE) Pacific Cross-Section Intercomparison (GPCI). The main goal of GPCI is to evaluate and help understand and improve the representation of tropical and subtropical cloud processes in weather and climate prediction models. In this paper, a detailed analysis of cloud regime transitions along the cross section from the subtropics to the tropics for the season June July August of 1998 is presented. This GPCI study confirms many of the typical weather and climate prediction model problems in the representation of clouds: underestimation of clouds in the stratocumulus regime by most models with the corresponding consequences in terms of shortwave radiation biases; overestimation of clouds by the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) in the deep tropics (in particular) with the corresponding impact in the outgoing longwave radiation; large spread between the different models in terms of cloud cover, liquid water path and shortwave radiation; significant differences between the models in terms of vertical cross sections of cloud properties (in particular), vertical velocity, and relative humidity. An alternative analysis of cloud cover mean statistics is proposed where sharp gradients in cloud cover along the GPCI transect are taken into account. This analysis shows that the negative cloud bias of some models and ERA-40 in the stratocumulus regions [as compared to the first International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP)] is associated not only with lower values of cloud cover in these regimes, but also with a stratocumulus-to-cumulus transition that occurs too

  6. Tropical and subtropical cloud transitions in weather and climate prediction models: the GCSS/WGNE Pacific Cross-Section Intercomparison (GPCI)

    SciTech Connect

    Teixeira, J.; Cardoso, S.; Bonazzola, M.; Cole, Jason N.; DelGenio, Anthony D.; DeMott, C.; Franklin, A.; Hannay, Cecile; Jakob, Christian; Jiao, Y.; Karlsson, J.; Kitagawa, H.; Koehler, M.; Kuwano-Yoshida, A.; LeDrian, C.; Lock, Adrian; Miller, M.; Marquet, P.; Martins, J.; Mechoso, C. R.; Meijgaard, E. V.; Meinke, I.; Miranda, P.; Mironov, D.; Neggers, Roel; Pan, H. L.; Randall, David A.; Rasch, Philip J.; Rockel, B.; Rossow, William B.; Ritter, B.; Siebesma, A. P.; Soares, P.; Turk, F. J.; Vaillancourt, P.; Von Engeln, A.; Zhao, M.

    2011-11-01

    A model evaluation approach is proposed where weather and climate prediction models are analyzed along a Pacific Ocean cross-section, from the stratocumulus regions off the coast of California, across the shallow convection dominated trade-winds, to the deep convection regions of the ITCZ: the GCSS/WGNE Pacific Cross-section Intercomparison (GPCI). The main goal of GPCI is to evaluate, and help understand and improve the representation of tropical and sub-tropical cloud processes in weather and climate prediction models. In this paper, a detailed analysis of cloud regime transitions along the cross-section from the sub-tropics to the tropics for the season JJA of 1998 is presented. This GPCI study confirms many of the typical weather and climate prediction model problems in the representation of clouds: underestimation of clouds in the stratocumulus regime by most models with the corresponding consequences in terms of shortwave radiation biases; overestimation of clouds by the ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA40) in the deep tropics (in particular) with the corresponding impact in the outgoing longwave radiation; large spread between the different models in terms of cloud cover, liquid water path and shortwave radiation; significant differences between the models in terms of vertical crosssections of cloud properties (in particular), vertical velocity and relative humidity. An alternative analysis of cloud cover mean statistics is proposed where sharp gradients in cloud cover along the GPCI transect are taken into account. This analysis shows that the negative cloud bias of some models and ERA40 in the stratocumulus regions (as compared to ISCCP) is associated not only with lower values of cloud cover in these regimes, but also with a stratocumulus-to-cumulus transition that occurs too early along the trade-wind Lagrangian trajectory. Histograms of cloud cover along the cross-section differ significantly between models. Some models exhibit a quasi-bimodal structure with cloud

  7. Response of atmospheric CO2 to the abrupt cooling event 8200 years ago

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahn, J.; Brook, E.; Buizert, C.

    2013-12-01

    The abrupt cooling event 8200 years ago (8.2 ka event) is the most prominent centennial scale climate event during the Holocene and was likely caused by a reduction in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Atmospheric CO2 records for this event may help us understand climate-carbon cycle feedbacks under interglacial conditions, which are important for understanding future climate, but existing ice core records do not provide enough detail and natural smoothing of the CO2 time series by diffusion and gradual bubble close-off in the firn layer (unconsolidated snow layer in the top of ice sheets) limits their resolution. Studies of leaf stomata records suggest a CO2 decrease of up to ~25 ppm during the 8.2 ka event, but relatively large uncertainties in reconstructed CO2 levels from leaves and dating make firm conclusions difficult. Here we present a new CO2 record from the Siple Dome ice core, Antarctica, that covers 7.4-9.0 ka with 8- to 16-year resolution. The relatively high snow accumulation rate at Siple Dome results minimizes smoothing relative to other records and the timing of the 8.2 ka event is precisely constrained by a CH4 record from the same core. We observe a small, ~2 ppm, increase of atmospheric CO2 during the 8.2 ka event. The increase is not remarkable when compared to other centennial variations in the Holocene that are not linked to large temperature changes. Our results imply that the sensitivity of atmospheric CO2 to the primarily northern hemisphere cooling of the 8.2 ka event was limited.

  8. Lack of Critical Slowing Down Suggests that Financial Meltdowns Are Not Critical Transitions, yet Rising Variability Could Signal Systemic Risk.

    PubMed

    Guttal, Vishwesha; Raghavendra, Srinivas; Goel, Nikunj; Hoarau, Quentin

    2016-01-01

    Complex systems inspired analysis suggests a hypothesis that financial meltdowns are abrupt critical transitions that occur when the system reaches a tipping point. Theoretical and empirical studies on climatic and ecological dynamical systems have shown that approach to tipping points is preceded by a generic phenomenon called critical slowing down, i.e. an increasingly slow response of the system to perturbations. Therefore, it has been suggested that critical slowing down may be used as an early warning signal of imminent critical transitions. Whether financial markets exhibit critical slowing down prior to meltdowns remains unclear. Here, our analysis reveals that three major US (Dow Jones Index, S&P 500 and NASDAQ) and two European markets (DAX and FTSE) did not exhibit critical slowing down prior to major financial crashes over the last century. However, all markets showed strong trends of rising variability, quantified by time series variance and spectral function at low frequencies, prior to crashes. These results suggest that financial crashes are not critical transitions that occur in the vicinity of a tipping point. Using a simple model, we argue that financial crashes are likely to be stochastic transitions which can occur even when the system is far away from the tipping point. Specifically, we show that a gradually increasing strength of stochastic perturbations may have caused to abrupt transitions in the financial markets. Broadly, our results highlight the importance of stochastically driven abrupt transitions in real world scenarios. Our study offers rising variability as a precursor of financial meltdowns albeit with a limitation that they may signal false alarms. PMID:26761792

  9. Lack of Critical Slowing Down Suggests that Financial Meltdowns Are Not Critical Transitions, yet Rising Variability Could Signal Systemic Risk

    PubMed Central

    Hoarau, Quentin

    2016-01-01

    Complex systems inspired analysis suggests a hypothesis that financial meltdowns are abrupt critical transitions that occur when the system reaches a tipping point. Theoretical and empirical studies on climatic and ecological dynamical systems have shown that approach to tipping points is preceded by a generic phenomenon called critical slowing down, i.e. an increasingly slow response of the system to perturbations. Therefore, it has been suggested that critical slowing down may be used as an early warning signal of imminent critical transitions. Whether financial markets exhibit critical slowing down prior to meltdowns remains unclear. Here, our analysis reveals that three major US (Dow Jones Index, S&P 500 and NASDAQ) and two European markets (DAX and FTSE) did not exhibit critical slowing down prior to major financial crashes over the last century. However, all markets showed strong trends of rising variability, quantified by time series variance and spectral function at low frequencies, prior to crashes. These results suggest that financial crashes are not critical transitions that occur in the vicinity of a tipping point. Using a simple model, we argue that financial crashes are likely to be stochastic transitions which can occur even when the system is far away from the tipping point. Specifically, we show that a gradually increasing strength of stochastic perturbations may have caused to abrupt transitions in the financial markets. Broadly, our results highlight the importance of stochastically driven abrupt transitions in real world scenarios. Our study offers rising variability as a precursor of financial meltdowns albeit with a limitation that they may signal false alarms. PMID:26761792

  10. Improved astronomical age constraints for the middle Miocene climate transition based on high-resolution stable isotope records from the central Mediterranean Maltese Islands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mourik, Anja A.; Abels, Hemmo A.; Hilgen, Frederik J.; Di Stefano, Agata; Zachariasse, Willem Jan

    2011-03-01

    Marine outcrops of the Globigerina Limestone and Blue Clay formations on the Maltese Islands in the central Mediterranean document the middle Miocene climate transition between ˜15 and 13.5 million years ago. Here high-resolution benthic and planktic oxygen isotope records have been constructed for this enigmatic interval in Cenozoic climate evolution. Detailed biostratigraphic correlations to the astronomically tuned La Vedova section in northern Italy allow revision of the tuning of the Blue Clay Formation, constraining the age of the sediments directly above the formation boundary and hence the Mi-3b oxygen isotope event and Serravallian Global Stratotype Section and Point (GSSP). Biostratigraphic age control and cyclic patterns in the benthic carbon isotope record further lead to an astronomically-tuned age model for the Upper Member of the Globigerina Limestone Formation. Start of sedimentation of the Upper Globigerina Limestone is dated at ˜14.95 Ma, and the oldest Blue Clay sediments have a revised astronomical age of 13.76 ± 0.02 Ma. Our data indicates that a hiatus between 13.95 and 13.76 Ma cannot be excluded and could have implications for the Serravallian GSSP currently defined in this section. The global middle Miocene cooling is reflected in the benthic oxygen isotope record, showing a ˜0.6‰ increase (Mi-3b) between ˜13.95 and 13.76 Ma. A divergence between the planktic and benthic oxygen and carbon isotope records after 13.76 Ma could point to a decrease in ventilation, possibly related to increased fresh water influx after the climate transition.

  11. Projected Applications of a "Climate in a Box" Computing System at the NASA Short-Term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jedlovec, Gary J.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Zavodsky, Bradley; Case, Jonathan L.; LaFontaine, Frank J.

    2010-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center focuses on the transition of unique observations and research capabilities to the operational weather community, with a goal of improving short-term forecasts on a regional scale. Advances in research computing have lead to "Climate in a Box" systems, with hardware configurations capable of producing high resolution, near real-time weather forecasts, but with footprints, power, and cooling requirements that are comparable to desktop systems. The SPoRT Center has developed several capabilities for incorporating unique NASA research capabilities and observations with real-time weather forecasts. Planned utilization includes the development of a fully-cycled data assimilation system used to drive 36-48 hour forecasts produced by the NASA Unified version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (NU-WRF). The horsepower provided by the "Climate in a Box" system is expected to facilitate the assimilation of vertical profiles of temperature and moisture provided by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) aboard the NASA Aqua satellite. In addition, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments aboard NASA s Aqua and Terra satellites provide high-resolution sea surface temperatures and vegetation characteristics. The development of MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NVDI) composites for use within the NASA Land Information System (LIS) will assist in the characterization of vegetation, and subsequently the surface albedo and processes related to soil moisture. Through application of satellite simulators, NASA satellite instruments can be used to examine forecast model errors in cloud cover and other characteristics. Through the aforementioned application of the "Climate in a Box" system and NU-WRF capabilities, an end goal is the establishment of a real-time forecast system that fully integrates modeling and analysis capabilities developed within the NASA SPo

  12. Projected Applications of a ``Climate in a Box'' Computing System at the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jedlovec, G.; Molthan, A.; Zavodsky, B.; Case, J.; Lafontaine, F.

    2010-12-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center focuses on the transition of unique observations and research capabilities to the operational weather community, with a goal of improving short-term forecasts on a regional scale. Advances in research computing have lead to “Climate in a Box” systems, with hardware configurations capable of producing high resolution, near real-time weather forecasts, but with footprints, power, and cooling requirements that are comparable to desktop systems. The SPoRT Center has developed several capabilities for incorporating unique NASA research capabilities and observations with real-time weather forecasts. Planned utilization includes the development of a fully-cycled data assimilation system used to drive 36-48 hour forecasts produced by the NASA Unified version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (NU-WRF). The horsepower provided by the “Climate in a Box” system is expected to facilitate the assimilation of vertical profiles of temperature and moisture provided by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) aboard the NASA Aqua satellite. In addition, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments aboard NASA’s Aqua and Terra satellites provide high-resolution sea surface temperatures and vegetation characteristics. The development of MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NVDI) composites for use within the NASA Land Information System (LIS) will assist in the characterization of vegetation, and subsequently the surface albedo and processes related to soil moisture. Through application of satellite simulators, NASA satellite instruments can be used to examine forecast model errors in cloud cover and other characteristics. Through the aforementioned application of the “Climate in a Box” system and NU-WRF capabilities, an end goal is the establishment of a real-time forecast system that fully integrates modeling and analysis capabilities developed

  13. An automatic abrupt information extraction method based on singular value decomposition and higher-order statistics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Tian; Ye, Wu; Pan, Qiang; Liu, Xiandong

    2016-02-01

    One key aspect of local fault diagnosis is how to effectively extract abrupt features from the vibration signals. This paper proposes a method to automatically extract abrupt information based on singular value decomposition and higher-order statistics. In order to observe the distribution law of singular values, a numerical analysis to simulate the noise, periodic signal, abrupt signal and singular value distribution is conducted. Based on higher-order statistics and spectrum analysis, a method to automatically choose the upper and lower borders of the singular value interval reflecting the abrupt information is built. And the selected singular values derived from this method are used to reconstruct abrupt signals. It is proven that the method is able to obtain accurate results by processing the rub-impact fault signal measured from the experiments. The analytical and experimental results indicate that the proposed method is feasible for automatically extracting abrupt information caused by faults like the rotor-stator rub-impact.

  14. Educating for Hope in Troubled Times: Climate Change and the Transition to a Post-Carbon Future

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hicks, David

    2014-01-01

    This book explores three global issues--climate change, peak oil and the limits to growth. It sets out the facts about the inevitable yet still largely unknown changes, and examines the feelings and attitudes the coming changes engender. It offers teachers ways to engage with vital but too often avoided issues, and to share success stories and…

  15. Atomically Abrupt Liquid-Oxide Interface Stabilized by Self-Regulated Interfacial Defects: The Case of Al/Al2O3 Interfaces

    SciTech Connect

    Kang, J.; Zhu, J. Y.; Curtis, C.; Blake, D.; Glatzmaier, G.; Kim, Y. H.; Wei, S. H.

    2012-06-01

    The atomic and electronic structures of the liquid Al/(0001) {alpha}-Al{sub 2}O{sub 3} interfaces are investigated by first-principles molecular dynamics simulations. Surprisingly, the formed liquid-solid interface is always atomically abrupt and is characterized by a transitional Al layer that contains a fixed concentration of Al vacancies ({approx}10 at.%). We find that the self-regulation of the defect density in the metal layer is due to the fact that the formation energy of the Al vacancies is readjusted in a way that opposes changes in the defect density. The negative-feedback effect stabilizes the defected transitional layer and maintains the atomic abruptness at the interface. The proposed mechanism is generally applicable to other liquid-metal/metal-oxide systems, and thus of significant importance in understanding the interface structures at high temperature.

  16. Climate change, adaptive cycles, and the persistence of foraging economies during the late Pleistocene/Holocene transition in the Levant

    PubMed Central

    Rosen, Arlene M.; Rivera-Collazo, Isabel

    2012-01-01

    Climatic forcing during the Younger Dryas (∼12.9–11.5 ky B.P.) event has become the theoretical basis to explain the origins of agricultural lifestyles in the Levant by suggesting a failure of foraging societies to adjust. This explanation however, does not fit the scarcity of data for predomestication cultivation in the Natufian Period. The resilience of Younger Dryas foragers is better illustrated by a concept of adaptive cycles within a theory of adaptive change (resilience theory). Such cycles consist of four phases: release/collapse (Ω); reorganization (α), when the system restructures itself after a catastrophic stimulus through innovation and social memory—a period of greater resilience and less vulnerability; exploitation (r); and conservation (K), representing an increasingly rigid system that loses flexibility to change. The Kebarans and Late Natufians had similar responses to cold and dry conditions vs. Early Natufians and the Pre-Pottery Neolithic A responses to warm and wet climates. Kebarans and Late Natufians (α-phase) shifted to a broader-based diet and increased their mobility. Early Natufian and Pre-Pottery Neolithic A populations (r- and K-phases) had a growing investment in more narrowly focused, high-yield plant resources, but they maintained the broad range of hunted animals because of increased sedentism. These human adaptive cycles interlocked with plant and animal cycles. Forest and grassland vegetation responded to late Pleistocene and early Holocene climatic fluctuations, but prey animal cycles reflected the impact of human hunting pressure. The combination of these three adaptive cycles results in a model of human adaptation, showing potential for great sustainability of Levantine foraging systems even under adverse climatic conditions. PMID:22371591

  17. Climate change, adaptive cycles, and the persistence of foraging economies during the late Pleistocene/Holocene transition in the Levant.

    PubMed

    Rosen, Arlene M; Rivera-Collazo, Isabel

    2012-03-01

    Climatic forcing during the Younger Dryas (∼12.9-11.5 ky B.P.) event has become the theoretical basis to explain the origins of agricultural lifestyles in the Levant by suggesting a failure of foraging societies to adjust. This explanation however, does not fit the scarcity of data for predomestication cultivation in the Natufian Period. The resilience of Younger Dryas foragers is better illustrated by a concept of adaptive cycles within a theory of adaptive change (resilience theory). Such cycles consist of four phases: release/collapse (Ω); reorganization (α), when the system restructures itself after a catastrophic stimulus through innovation and social memory--a period of greater resilience and less vulnerability; exploitation (r); and conservation (K), representing an increasingly rigid system that loses flexibility to change. The Kebarans and Late Natufians had similar responses to cold and dry conditions vs. Early Natufians and the Pre-Pottery Neolithic A responses to warm and wet climates. Kebarans and Late Natufians (α-phase) shifted to a broader-based diet and increased their mobility. Early Natufian and Pre-Pottery Neolithic A populations (r- and K-phases) had a growing investment in more narrowly focused, high-yield plant resources, but they maintained the broad range of hunted animals because of increased sedentism. These human adaptive cycles interlocked with plant and animal cycles. Forest and grassland vegetation responded to late Pleistocene and early Holocene climatic fluctuations, but prey animal cycles reflected the impact of human hunting pressure. The combination of these three adaptive cycles results in a model of human adaptation, showing potential for great sustainability of Levantine foraging systems even under adverse climatic conditions. PMID:22371591

  18. Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary in the Antarctic: Climatic cooling precedes biotic crisis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stott, Lowell D.; Kennett, James P.

    1988-01-01

    Stable isotopic investigations were conducted on calcareous microfossils across two deep sea Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary sequences on Maud Rise, Weddell Sea, Antarctica. The boundary is taken at the level of massive extinctions in calcareous planktonic microfossils, and coincides with a sharp lithologic change from pure calcareous ooze to calcareous ooze with a large volcanic clay component. The uppermost Maestrichtian is marked by a long-term decrease in delta value of 0 to 18 which spans most of the lower and middle A. mayaroensis Zone and represents a warming trend which culminated in surface water temperatures of about 16 C. At approximately 3 meters below the K-T boundary this warming trend terminates abruptly and benthic and planktonic isotopic records exhibit a rapid increase in delta value of 0 to 18 that continues up to the K-T boundary. The trend towards cooler surface water temperatures stops abruptly at the K-T boundary and delta value of 0 to 18 values remain relatively stable through the Paleocene. Comparison of the Antarctic sequence with the previously documented deep sea records in the South Atlantic reveal shifts of similar magnitude in the latest Maestrichtian. It is indicated that the Southern Ocean underwent the most significant, and apparently permanent, climatic change. The latest Cretaceous oxygen isotopic shift recorded at Maud Rise and other deep sea sites is similar in magnitude to large positive delta valve of 0 to 18 shifts in the middle Eocene, at the Eocene/Oligocene boundary and in the middle Miocene that marked large scale climatic transitions which ultimately lead to cryospheric development of the Antarctic. The climatic shift at the end of the Cretaceous represents one of the most significant climatic transitions recorded in the latest Phanerozoic and had a profound effect on global climate as well as oceanic circulation.

  19. The Magnetospheric Response to Abrupt Variations in the IMF Orientation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sibeck, D. G.

    2014-12-01

    We run the University of Michigan's BATS-R-US global magnetohydrodynamic model at NASA/GSFC's CCMCto study the magnetospheric response to abrupt variations in the IMF orientation but constant solar wind plasmaparameters. IMF rotations from southward to duskward orientations diminish reconnection rates and the flow ofplasma to the dayside magnetopause, launch Alfven waves that carry strong duskward magnetic field perturbationsto the cusp ionosphere, introduce a weak duskward magnetic field perturbation to the outer dayside magnetosphere, twistthe magnetotail current sheet counterclockwise when viewed from the Sun, flatten the north/south dimensions of the distant magnetotail, andgenerate a broad slow-mode fan on the magnetotail flanks. Southward IMF turnings strengthen the Region 1 Birkelandcurrents, prominently depressing magnetic field strengths in the inner dayside magnetosphere and to a lesserdegree those in the outer magnetosphere, consistent with inward dayside magnetopause erosion. The daysidemagnetopause becomes blunter. As evidenced by enhanced magnetosheath thermal and magnetosphericmagnetic pressures, the magnetopause therefore becomes subject to a greater fraction of the incident solar winddynamic pressure at locations away from the subsolar point.

  20. Detecting and isolating abrupt changes in linear switching systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nazari, Sohail; Zhao, Qing; Huang, Biao

    2015-04-01

    In this paper, a novel fault detection and isolation (FDI) method for switching linear systems is developed. All input and output signals are assumed to be corrupted with measurement noises. In the proposed method, a 'lifted' linear model named as stochastic hybrid decoupling polynomial (SHDP) is introduced. The SHDP model governs the dynamics of the switching linear system with all different modes, and is independent of the switching sequence. The error-in-variable (EIV) representation of SHDP is derived, and is used for the fault residual generation and isolation following the well-adopted local approach. The proposed FDI method can detect and isolate the fault-induced abrupt changes in switching models' parameters without estimating the switching modes. Furthermore, in this paper, the analytical expressions of the gradient vector and Hessian matrix are obtained based on the EIV SHDP formulation, so that they can be used to implement the online fault detection scheme. The performance of the proposed method is then illustrated by simulation examples.

  1. Abrupt Schottky Junctions in Al/Ge Nanowire Heterostructures

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    In this Letter we report on the exploration of axial metal/semiconductor (Al/Ge) nanowire heterostructures with abrupt interfaces. The formation process is enabled by a thermal induced exchange reaction between the vapor–liquid–solid grown Ge nanowire and Al contact pads due to the substantially different diffusion behavior of Ge in Al and vice versa. Temperature-dependent I–V measurements revealed the metallic properties of the crystalline Al nanowire segments with a maximum current carrying capacity of about 0.8 MA/cm2. Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) characterization has confirmed both the composition and crystalline nature of the pure Al nanowire segments. A very sharp interface between the ⟨111⟩ oriented Ge nanowire and the reacted Al part was observed with a Schottky barrier height of 361 meV. To demonstrate the potential of this approach, a monolithic Al/Ge/Al heterostructure was used to fabricate a novel impact ionization device. PMID:26052733

  2. Abrupt onset and prolongation of aragonite undersaturation events in the Southern Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hauri, Claudine; Friedrich, Tobias; Timmermann, Axel

    2016-02-01

    Ocean acidification may lead to seasonal aragonite undersaturation in surface waters of the Southern Ocean as early as 2030 (ref. ). These conditions are harmful to key organisms such as pteropods, which contribute significantly to the pelagic foodweb and carbon export fluxes in this region. Although the severity of ocean acidification impacts is mainly determined by the duration, intensity and spatial extent of aragonite undersaturation events, little is known about the nature of these events, their evolving attributes and the timing of their onset in the Southern Ocean. Using an ensemble of ten Earth system models, we show that starting around 2030, aragonite undersaturation events will spread rapidly, affecting ~30% of Southern Ocean surface waters by 2060 and >70% by 2100, including the Patagonian Shelf. On their onset, the duration of these events will increase abruptly from 1 month to 6 months per year in less than 20 years in >75% of the area affected by end-of-century aragonite undersaturation. This is likely to decrease the ability of organisms to adapt to a quickly evolving environment. The rapid equatorward progression of surface aragonite undersaturation can be explained by the uptake of anthropogenic CO2, whereas climate-driven physical or biological changes will play a minor role.

  3. CO2 and fire influence tropical ecosystem stability in response to climate change

    PubMed Central

    Shanahan, Timothy M.; Hughen, Konrad A.; McKay, Nicholas P.; Overpeck, Jonathan T.; Scholz, Christopher A.; Gosling, William D.; Miller, Charlotte S.; Peck, John A.; King, John W.; Heil, Clifford W.

    2016-01-01

    Interactions between climate, fire and CO2 are believed to play a crucial role in controlling the distributions of tropical woodlands and savannas, but our understanding of these processes is limited by the paucity of data from undisturbed tropical ecosystems. Here we use a 28,000-year integrated record of vegetation, climate and fire from West Africa to examine the role of these interactions on tropical ecosystem stability. We find that increased aridity between 28–15 kyr B.P. led to the widespread expansion of tropical grasslands, but that frequent fires and low CO2 played a crucial role in stabilizing these ecosystems, even as humidity changed. This resulted in an unstable ecosystem state, which transitioned abruptly from grassland to woodlands as gradual changes in CO2 and fire shifted the balance in favor of woody plants. Since then, high atmospheric CO2 has stabilized tropical forests by promoting woody plant growth, despite increased aridity. Our results indicate that the interactions between climate, CO2 and fire can make tropical ecosystems more resilient to change, but that these systems are dynamically unstable and potentially susceptible to abrupt shifts between woodland and grassland dominated states in the future. PMID:27427431

  4. CO2 and fire influence tropical ecosystem stability in response to climate change.

    PubMed

    Shanahan, Timothy M; Hughen, Konrad A; McKay, Nicholas P; Overpeck, Jonathan T; Scholz, Christopher A; Gosling, William D; Miller, Charlotte S; Peck, John A; King, John W; Heil, Clifford W

    2016-01-01

    Interactions between climate, fire and CO2 are believed to play a crucial role in controlling the distributions of tropical woodlands and savannas, but our understanding of these processes is limited by the paucity of data from undisturbed tropical ecosystems. Here we use a 28,000-year integrated record of vegetation, climate and fire from West Africa to examine the role of these interactions on tropical ecosystem stability. We find that increased aridity between 28-15 kyr B.P. led to the widespread expansion of tropical grasslands, but that frequent fires and low CO2 played a crucial role in stabilizing these ecosystems, even as humidity changed. This resulted in an unstable ecosystem state, which transitioned abruptly from grassland to woodlands as gradual changes in CO2 and fire shifted the balance in favor of woody plants. Since then, high atmospheric CO2 has stabilized tropical forests by promoting woody plant growth, despite increased aridity. Our results indicate that the interactions between climate, CO2 and fire can make tropical ecosystems more resilient to change, but that these systems are dynamically unstable and potentially susceptible to abrupt shifts between woodland and grassland dominated states in the future. PMID:27427431

  5. Abrupt change of rotation axis in {sup 109}Ag

    SciTech Connect

    Datta, P.; Pal, S.; Chattopadhyay, S.; Bhattacharya, S.; Goswami, A.; Sarkar, M. Saha; Sun, Y.; Rao, P. V. Madhusudhana; Bhowmik, R. K.; Kumar, R.; Madhavan, N.; Muralithar, S.; Singh, R. P.; Jain, H. C.; Joshi, P. K.; Amita

    2008-08-15

    The electromagnetic transition rates for all the high spin levels of the yrast sequence of {sup 109}Ag have been measured. The observed behavior of the magnetic dipole transition rates as a function of angular momentum establishes that there is a sudden change in rotation axis associated with rotational alignment of two neutrons. The projected shell model calculations give a consistent picture of the observed phenomena in {sup 109}Ag.

  6. Abrupt Late Pleistocene Changes in Northern South American River Run-Off

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoffmann, J.; Bahr, A.; Voigt, S.; Schönfeld, J.; Nuernberg, D.

    2014-12-01

    Paleoenvironmental studies as well as climate models demonstrate that fluvial run-off and moisture availability in the hinterland of the Caribbean react highly sensitively to climatic variations. Deglacial (Late Pleistocene) records document pronounced dry and wet spells over tropical South America which are mainly caused by shifts of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) coupled with South American monsoonal activity. Here we present a high-resolution foraminiferal Ba/Ca and δ18Oseawater record from a core located within the Orinoco outflow area, that give insights into abrupt changes of the hydrology of the Orinoco catchment area and, furthermore, enables us to reconstruct circulation patterns within the Caribbean during deglacial times. Our data, obtained from the surface-dwelling foraminifera Globigerinoides ruber (pink variety), show a distinct increase in Ba/Ca ratios during the Heinrich 1 (H1) interval, as well as during the Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles up to 36 kyr. Based on the multi-proxy evidence we largely attribute the Ba/Ca increase during H1 to enhanced Amazon river run-off, while Orinoco river discharge appears not to be significantly elevated. During Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles, the causal mechanism for enhanced Ba/Ca ratios is an insolation-driven shift of the ITCZ and/or enhanced South American summer monsoon activity. Interestingly, the H1 Ba/Ca shows strong similarities in shape and timing to published Ba/Ca data from Florida Straits.This leads us to the assumption that the South American run-off signal is transported directly into the Atlantic Ocean via Yukatan Strait and Florida Strait and therefore alter the salinity budget in the North Atlantic. The results point to immediate high to low latitude feedbacks which might help to re-inforce the weakening of the overturning circulation during Heinrich Events and Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles.

  7. Infrastructure sufficiency in meeting water demand under climate-induced socio-hydrological transition in the urbanizing Capibaribe River Basin - Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ribeiro Neto, A.; Scott, C. A.; Lima, E. A.; Montenegro, S. M. G. L.; Cirilo, J. A.

    2014-03-01

    Water availability for a range of human uses will increasingly be affected by climate change especially in the arid and semi-arid tropics. This paper aims to evaluate the ability of reservoirs and related infrastructure to meet targets for water supply in the Capibaribe River Basin (CRB), in the state of Pernambuco, Brazil. The basin has experienced spatial and sectoral (agriculture-urban) reconfiguration of water demands. Human settlements that were once dispersed, relying on intermittent sources of surface water, are now increasingly experiencing water-scarcity effects. As a result, rural populations in the CRB are concentrating around infrastructural water supplies in a socio-hydrological transition process that results from (a) hydroclimatic variability, (b) investment and assistance programs that may enhance but can also supplant local adaptive capacity, and (c) demographic trends driving urbanization of the state capital, Recife, which mirror urban growth across Brazil. In the CRB, demands are currently composed of 69.1% urban potable water, 14.3% industrial, 16.6% irrigation (with ecosystem-service demands met by residual flow). Based on the application of linked hydrologic and water-resources models using precipitation and temperature projections of the IPCC SRES A1B scenario, a reduction in rainfall of 31.8% translated to streamflow reduction of 67.4% under present reservoir operations rules. The increasing demand due to population was also taken into account. This would entail severe water supply reductions for human consumption (-45.3%) and irrigation (-78.0%) by the end of the 21st century. This study demonstrates the vulnerabilities of the infrastructure system during socio-hydrological transition in response to hydroclimatic and demand variabilities in the CRB and also indicates the differential spatial impacts and vulnerability of multiple uses of water to changes over time. The paper concludes with a discussion of the broader implications of climate

  8. Salinization of Freshwater-Dependent Coastal Ecosystems: Understanding Landscapes in Transition Along the Leading Edge of Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Emanuel, R. E.; Bernhardt, E. S.; Ardón, M.; Wright, J. P.; BenDor, T.; Bhattachan, A.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change is transforming the outer edge of the Southern US coastal plain. Lower-lying parts of this region, characterized by extensive freshwater-dependent ecosystems, will be largely inundated by gradual sea level rise by the end of this century. In the interim, however, ocean waters are already penetrating and influencing freshwater-dependent coastal landscapes due to a combination of human and natural factors. This landward movement of salinity from the coast onto the coastal plain or "saltwater intrusion" is a critical water resource issue representing the leading edge of climate change for many coastal areas. The salinization of surface waters and adjacent lands has implications for crop and timber yields in managed ecosystems, ecosystem carbon sequestration in unmanaged ecosystems, and degradation of coastal water quality due to extraction of soil nutrients by seasalts. With this in mind, we seek to understand more broadly how vulnerability of coastal landscapes to saltwater intrusion shapes and is shaped by both natural and anthropogenic processes. We present a novel framework that couples intensive, in situ monitoring of hydrological and ecological conditions with a geospatial saltwater intrusion vulnerability index (SIVI). We discuss application of this framework to the Albemarle-Pamlico region of coastal North Carolina, where we are learning how climate, natural landscape structure, and human activities interact to mediate or exacerbate the vulnerability of freshwater-dependent lands to saltwater intrusion. We discuss the involvement of stakeholders and local knowledge in the research process as well. This work advances understanding of vulnerability to climate change in coastal regions by moving beyond simple inundation models to gain a more sophisticated understanding of the human and natural processes influencing salinization of surface waters and adjacent lands. As the Albemarle-Pamlico and similar regions worldwide transform in response to and

  9. The effects of future nationwide forest transition to discharge in the 21st century with regard to general circulation model climate change scenarios.

    PubMed

    Mouri, Goro; Nakano, Katsuhiro; Tsuyama, Ikutaro; Tanaka, Nobuyuki

    2016-08-01

    Catchment Simulator modelling frameworks based on the Minimal Advanced Treatments of Surface Interaction and Runoff (MATSIRO) model, which was expanded to estimate discharge by incorporating the effects of forest-type transition across the whole of Japan. The results indicated that, by the 2090s, annual runoff will increase above present-day values. Increases in annual variation in runoff by the 2090s was predicted to be around 14.1% when using the MRI-GCM data and 44.4% when using the HadGEM data. Analysis by long-term projection showed the largest increases in runoff in the 2090s were related to the type of forest, such as evergreen. Increased runoff can have negative effects on both society and the environment, including increased flooding events, worsened water quality, habitat destruction and changes to the forest moisture-retaining function. Prediction of the impacts of future climate change on water generation is crucial for effective environmental planning and management. PMID:26852164

  10. Abrupt transition from fractional crystallization to magma mixing at Gorely volcano (Kamchatka) after caldera collapse

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gavrilenko, Maxim; Ozerov, Alexey; Kyle, Philip R.; Carr, Michael J.; Nikulin, Alex; Vidito, Christopher; Danyushevsky, Leonid

    2016-07-01

    A series of large caldera-forming eruptions (361-38 ka) transformed Gorely volcano, southern Kamchatka Peninsula, from a shield-type system dominated by fractional crystallization processes to a composite volcanic center, exhibiting geochemical evidence of magma mixing. Old Gorely, an early shield volcano (700-361 ka), was followed by Young Gorely eruptions. Calc-alkaline high magnesium basalt to rhyolite lavas have been erupted from Gorely volcano since the Pleistocene. Fractional crystallization dominated evolution of the Old Gorely magmas, whereas magma mixing is more prominent in the Young Gorely eruptive products. The role of recharge-evacuation processes in Gorely magma evolution is negligible (a closed magmatic system); however, crustal rock assimilation plays a significant role for the evolved magmas. Most Gorely magmas differentiate in a shallow magmatic system at pressures up to 300 MPa, ˜3 wt% H2O, and oxygen fugacity of ˜QFM + 1.5 log units. Magma temperatures of 1123-1218 °C were measured using aluminum distribution between olivine and spinel in Old and Young Gorely basalts. The crystallization sequence of major minerals for Old Gorely was as follows: olivine and spinel (Ol + Sp) for mafic compositions (more than 5 wt% of MgO); clinopyroxene and plagioclase crystallized at ˜5 wt% of MgO (Ol + Cpx + Plag) and magnetite at ˜3.5 wt% of MgO (Ol + Cpx + Plag + Mt). We show that the shallow magma chamber evolution of Old Gorely occurs under conditions of decompression and degassing. We find that the caldera-forming eruption(s) modified the magma plumbing geometry. This led to a change in the dominant magma evolution process from fractional crystallization to magma mixing. We further suggest that disruption of the magma chamber and accompanying change in differentiation process have the potential to transform a shield volcanic system to that of composite cone on a global scale.

  11. Explaining abrupt spatial transitions in agro-ecosystem responses to periods of extended drought

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    During the 1930’s, the North American central grassland region (CGR) experienced an extreme multi-year drought that resulted in broad scale plant mortality, massive dust storms and losses of soil and nutrients. Southern mixed grasslands were among the worst affected and experienced severe broad scal...

  12. Investigation of the Impact of a Heinrich-Event-like Abrupt Event Superimposed Onto the RCP 8.5 Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Defrance, D.; Ramstein, G.; Dumas, C.; Charbit, S.

    2014-12-01

    The CMIP5/IPCC (AR5) projections of climate change showed the temperatures should increase by between 1.3 °C and 4.4 °C by 2100 and the sea level rise between 26 cm and 82 cm on average. Superimposed on these climatic and hydrologic trends associated with the RCP 8.5 most pessimistic scenario, it is important to investigate the possible effect of an abrupt event like an ice-sheet surge. This is first justified by the recent collapse of the Larsen B ice shelf which illustrates that a non-linear response of the cryosphere may occur in a warming world. Furthermore, in glacial periods, ice-sheets have been unstable and huge surges of icebergs did occur and deeply modified the climate. The aim of this presentation is to show the hypothetical climatic consequences of such a Heinrich-type event on future climate change. To achieve this goal, 3 scenarios of rapid ice-sheet deglaciation have been designed, corresponding to an additional sea level rise of around 3 m : - S1 corresponds to a contribution from Greenland only; - S2 from West-Antarctica only; - S3 from both ice-sheets. We use the global atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (OAGCM) IPSL-CM5A-LR. The freshwater perturbation is applied near the ice-sheet(s) during 20 years from 2050 to 2070 during an RCP8.5 perturbation. The RCP8.5 scenario is then continued until 2100 (without freshwater). For these types of scenarios, previous experiments for paleoclimatic cases help us diagnose the most vulnerable areas. The North Atlantic and the collapse of thermohaline circulation is one key issue, but far field teleconnections with the Asian monsoon will also be explored. We will investigate the timing and amplitude of the climate impacts due to the perturbations, which may be quite different in our 3 scenarios. These abrupt events consequences can be important for the populations and the consideration of rapid changes should improve the reliability of IPCC predictions.

  13. Stochastic Resonance and Global Synchronization In The Climate System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ganopolski, A.; Rahmstorf, S.; Calov, R.

    Paleoclimate data present strong evidences that during glacial age the climate sys- tem unlike recent 10,000 yr was characterized by strong variability on millennial time scale. Moreover, two the most pronounced types of variability, Dansgaard-Oeshger (D/O) oscillations and Heinrich events, were closely locked in time and the latter re- veal clear 1500 years pacing. The goal of this paper is to demonstrate that peculiar timing and synchronism of different types of abrupt climate events during glacial age is a consequence of internal instability of the components of the climate system. In Ganopolski and Rahmstorf (2001) we proposed an explanation of D/O oscillations as a temporary state transitions triggered by a small-amplitude freshwater forcing in the high latitude North Atlantic, which causes rapid jumps of the thermohaline ocean cir- culation from the stable (cold) mode to the unstable (warm) mode. Such an excitable system is prone to stochastic resonance. In Ganopolski and Rahmstorf (2002) we have shown that when the climate system is driven by random noise of realistic amplitude, combined with a very weak climate cycle of 1500 yr, D/O oscillations result which are similar in time evolution and spatial patterns to those recorded in the Greenland ice core. In particularly, simulated warm events have preferred interspike intervals of 1500, 3000 and 4500 yr. Ice sheets alike thermohaline ocean circulation can be de- scribed as an excitable system. In Calov et al. (2002), using coupled climate-ice sheet mode, we simulated large-scale oscillations of the Laurentide Ice Sheet resembling Heinrich events in geographical pattern, amplitude and temporal evolution. Although, a typical period of simulated Heinrich events is controlled by climate forcing and in- ternal ice sheet dynamics, the precise timing of individual Heinrich events is locked to small-scale instabilities in the area of Hudson Strait. We speculate that in the real climate system such perturbations can

  14. Abrupt pre-Bølling-Allerød warming and circulation changes in the deep ocean.

    PubMed

    Thiagarajan, Nivedita; Subhas, Adam V; Southon, John R; Eiler, John M; Adkins, Jess F

    2014-07-01

    Several large and rapid changes in atmospheric temperature and the partial pressure of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere--probably linked to changes in deep ocean circulation--occurred during the last deglaciation. The abrupt temperature rise in the Northern Hemisphere and the restart of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at the start of the Bølling-Allerød interstadial, 14,700 years ago, are among the most dramatic deglacial events, but their underlying physical causes are not known. Here we show that the release of heat from warm waters in the deep North Atlantic Ocean probably triggered the Bølling-Allerød warming and reinvigoration of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Our results are based on coupled radiocarbon and uranium-series dates, along with clumped isotope temperature estimates, from water column profiles of fossil deep-sea corals in a limited area of the western North Atlantic. We find that during Heinrich stadial 1 (the cool period immediately before the Bølling-Allerød interstadial), the deep ocean was about three degrees Celsius warmer than shallower waters above. This reversal of the ocean's usual thermal stratification pre-dates the Bølling-Allerød warming and must have been associated with increased salinity at depth to preserve the static stability of the water column. The depleted radiocarbon content of the warm and salty water mass implies a long-term disconnect from rapid surface exchanges, and, although uncertainties remain, is most consistent with a Southern Ocean source. The Heinrich stadial 1 ocean profile is distinct from the modern water column, that for the Last Glacial Maximum and that for the Younger Dryas, suggesting that the patterns we observe are a unique feature of the deglacial climate system. Our observations indicate that the deep ocean influenced dramatic Northern Hemisphere warming by storing heat at depth that preconditioned the system for a subsequent abrupt overturning event during the

  15. On the abrupt growth dynamics of nonlinear resistive tearing mode and the viscosity effects

    SciTech Connect

    Ali, A.; Li, Jiquan; Kishimoto, Y.

    2014-05-15

    The nonlinear evolution of the resistive tearing mode exhibits an abrupt growth after an X-point collapse once the magnetic island exceeds a certain critical width Δ′w{sub c} for large instability parameter Δ′, leading to a current sheet formation [N. F. Loureiro et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 95, 235003 (2005)]. In this work, we investigate the underlying mechanism of the X-point collapse as well as the current sheet formation including the viscosity effects, based on a secondary instability analysis. The secondary instability is excited due to the quasilinear current modification by the zonal current. In particular, it is identified that the current peaking effect is plausibly responsible for the onset of the X-point collapse and the current sheet formation, leading to the explosive growth of reconnected flux. In the presence of finite viscosity, the Δ′w{sub c} scaling with the resistivity gets modified. A transition behavior is revealed at P{sub r}≈1 for the viscosity dependence of Δ′w{sub c} and the linear tearing instability. However, the explosive growth seems to be independent of the viscosity in the magnetic Prandtl number P{sub r}<1 regime, while large viscosity plays a strong dissipation role.

  16. ABRUPT LONGITUDINAL MAGNETIC FIELD CHANGES AND ULTRAVIOLET EMISSIONS ACCOMPANYING SOLAR FLARES

    SciTech Connect

    Johnstone, B. M.; Petrie, G. J. D.; Sudol, J. J.

    2012-11-20

    We have used Transition Region and Coronal Explorer 1600 A images and Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) magnetograms to compare ultraviolet (UV) emissions from the chromosphere to longitudinal magnetic field changes in the photosphere during four X-class solar flares. An abrupt, significant, and persistent change in the magnetic field occurred across more than 10 pixels in the GONG magnetograms for each flare. These magnetic changes lagged the GOES flare start times in all cases, showing that they were consequences and not causes of the flares. Ultraviolet emissions were spatially coincident with the field changes. The UV emissions tended to lag the GOES start times for the flares and led the changes in the magnetic field in all pixels except one. The UV emissions led the photospheric field changes by 4 minutes on average with the longest lead being 9 minutes; however, the UV emissions continued for tens of minutes, and more than an hour in some cases, after the field changes were complete. The observations are consistent with the picture in which an Alfven wave from the field reconnection site in the corona propagates field changes outward in all directions near the onset of the impulsive phase, including downward through the chromosphere and into the photosphere, causing the photospheric field changes, whereas the chromosphere emits in the UV in the form of flare kernels, ribbons, and sequential chromospheric brightenings during all phases of the flare.

  17. Introduction to the Abrupt Wing Stall (AWS) Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hall, Robert M.; Woodson, Shawn H.

    2003-01-01

    The Abrupt Wing Stall (AWS) Program has addressed the problem of uncommanded, transonic lateral motions, such as wing drop, with experimental, computational, and simulation tools. Background to the establishment of the AWS program is given as well as program objectives. In order to understand the fundamental flow mechanisms that caused the undesirable motions for a pre-production version of the F/A-18E, steady and unsteady flow field details were gathered from dedicated transonic wind-tunnel testing and computational studies. The AWS program has also adapted a free-to-roll (FTR) wind-tunnel testing technique traditionally used for low-speed studies of lateral dynamic stability to the transonic flow regime. This FTR capability was demonstrated first in a proof-of -concept study and then applied to an assessment of four different aircraft configurations. Figures of merit for static testing and for FTR testing have been evaluated for two configurations that demonstrated wing drop susceptibility during full-scale flight conditions (the pre-production F/A-18E and the AV-8B at the extremes of its flight envelope) and two configurations that do not exhibit wing drop (the F/A-18C and the F-16C). Design insights have been obtained from aerodynamic computational studies of the four aircraft configurations and from computations quantifying the impact of the various geometric wing differences between the F/A-18C and the F/A-18E wings. Finally, the AWS program provides guidance for assessing, in the simulator, the impact of experimentally determined lateral activity on flight characteristics before going to flight.

  18. Introduction to the Abrupt Wing Stall (AWS) Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hall, Robert M.; Woodson, Shawn H.

    2003-01-01

    The Abrupt Wing Stall (AWS) Program has addressed the problem of uncommanded, transonic lateral motions, such as wing drop, with experimental, computational, and simulation tools. Background to the establishment of the AWS program is given as well as program objectives. In order to understand the fundamental flow mechanisms that caused the undesirable motions for a pre-production version of the F/A-18E, steady and unsteady flow field details were gathered from dedicated transonic wind-tunnel testing and computational studies. The AWS program has also adapted a free-to- roll (FTR) wind-tunnel testing technique traditionally used for low-speed studies of lateral dynamic stability to the transonic flow regime. This FTR capability was demonstrated first in a proof-of-concept study and then applied to an assessment of four different aircraft configurations. Figures of merit for static testing and for FTR testing have been evaluated for two configurations that demonstrated wing drop susceptibility during full-scale flight conditions (the pre-production F/A-l8E and the AV-8B at the extremes of its flight envelope) and two configurations that do not exhibit wing drop (the F/A-l8C and the F-l6C). Design insights have been obtained from aerodynamic computational studies of the four aircraft configurations and from computations quantifying the impact of the various geometric wing differences between the F/A-18C and the F/A-l8E wings. Finally, the AWS program provides guidance for assessing, in the simulator, the impact of experimentally determined lateral activity on flight characteristics before going to flight.

  19. Abrupt onset of the Little Ice Age triggered by volcanism and sustained by sea-ice/ocean feedbacks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miller, Gifford H.; Geirsdóttir, Áslaug; Zhong, Yafang; Larsen, Darren J.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Holland, Marika M.; Bailey, David A.; Refsnider, Kurt A.; Lehman, Scott J.; Southon, John R.; Anderson, Chance; Björnsson, Helgi; Thordarson, Thorvaldur

    2012-01-01

    Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures over the past 8000 years have been paced by the slow decrease in summer insolation resulting from the precession of the equinoxes. However, the causes of superposed century-scale cold summer anomalies, of which the Little Ice Age (LIA) is the most extreme, remain debated, largely because the natural forcings are either weak or, in the case of volcanism, short lived. Here we present precisely dated records of ice-cap growth from Arctic Canada and Iceland showing that LIA summer cold and ice growth began abruptly between 1275 and 1300 AD, followed by a substantial intensification 1430-1455 AD. Intervals of sudden ice growth coincide with two of the most volcanically perturbed half centuries of the past millennium. A transient climate model simulation shows that explosive volcanism produces abrupt summer cooling at these times, and that cold summers can be maintained by sea-ice/ocean feedbacks long after volcanic aerosols are removed. Our results suggest that the onset of the LIA can be linked to an unusual 50-year-long episode with four large sulfur-rich explosive eruptions, each with global sulfate loading >60 Tg. The persistence of cold summers is best explained by consequent sea-ice/ocean feedbacks during a hemispheric summer insolation minimum; large changes in solar irradiance are not required.

  20. Analysis of streamflow variations in the Heihe River Basin: Trends, abrupt change, driving factors and ecological influences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, A.; Wang, S.; Zheng, C.

    2013-12-01

    With increasing water demands from domestic, agricultural, and industrial sectors, the Heihe River Basin (HRB), as the second largest inland river basin in the arid regions of northwest China, has been increasingly undergoing water resources shortage and eco-environmental degradation, especially in the lower HRB. Determining the trends and any abrupt changes in the streamflow over the river basin could help understand the causes and effects of historical variations in the water resources. This study was undertaken to analyze annual and seasonal streamflow variations over the past 50 years in the HRB. Statistical methods for detecting trends, abrupt and gradual changes were applied to the long-term precipitation and streamflow gage data along the main stream channel. The findings indicated that although the streamflow coming from the upper reaches have risen slightly, those flowing to the lower reaches have dropped significantly. Analysis of the correlation between precipitation and runoff and assessment of the changes in population, land use and irrigation water use revealed that human activities in the middle reaches of HRB rather than climate changes were likely to be primarily responsible for the water shortage and ecological deterioration of the lower HRB.

  1. Impact of abrupt climate change in the tropical southeast Atlantic during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hessler, Ines; Steinke, Stephan; Groeneveld, Jeroen; Dupont, Lydie; Wefer, Gerold

    2011-12-01

    High resolution planktonic foraminifera Mg/Ca paleotemperatures and oxygen isotopes of seawater of Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1078 (off Angola) have been reconstructed and reveal insights into the seasonal thermal evolution of the Angola Current (AC), the Angola-Benguela Front (ABF), and the Benguela Current (BC) during the last glacial (50-23.5 ka BP). Special emphasis is put on time intervals possibly associated with the North Atlantic Heinrich Stadials (HS), which are thought to lead to an accumulation of heat in the South Atlantic due to a reduction of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Within dating uncertainties, Globigerinoides ruber (pink) Mg/Ca-based sea surface temperature (SST) estimates that represent southern hemisphere summer surface conditions show several warming episodes that coincide with North Atlantic HS, thus supporting the concept of the bipolar thermal seesaw. In contrast, the Mg/Ca-based temperatures of Globigerina bulloides, representing the SST of the ABF/BC system during southern hemisphere winter, show no obvious response to the North Atlantic HS in the study area. We suggest that surface water cooling during the winter season is due to enhanced upwelling or upwelling of colder water masses which has most likely mitigated a warming of the ABF/BC system during HS. We further speculate that the seasonal asymmetry in our SST record results from seasonal differences in the dominance of atmospheric and oceanic teleconnections during periods of northern high latitude cooling.

  2. Collaborative Proposal. Development of an Isotope-Enabled CESM for Testing Abrupt Climate Changes

    SciTech Connect

    Otto-Bliesner, Bette

    2015-12-10

    We have made significant landmarks in our proposed work in the last 4 years (3 years plus 1 year of no cost extension). We have developed the simulation capability of the major isotopes in CESM. In particular, we have completed the implementation of the stable water isotopes (δ18O, δD) into the components for the atmosphere, ocean, land surface, runoff transport, sea ice, and coupler. In addition, the carbon isotopes (abiotic and biotic radiocarbon, δ13 C) have been implemented into the CESM ocean and land models, and long spinup simulations have been completed (Jahn et al., 2015). Furthermore, we have added abiotic Neodymium to the CESM ocean model as a tracer of ocean circulation, also measured by the proxy data community. Fullycoupled simulations with the stable water isotopes and ocean radiocarbon are currently being run for the preindustrial and also the Last Glacial Maximum. We have secured 19 million core-hours on the NWSC Yellowstone supercomputer for 12 months. Together with some CESM Paleoclimate Working Group CSL Yellowstone core hours, we are guaranteed sufficient computing for the spin-up experiments and deglaciation simulations for 21 to 15ka.

  3. A simple model for abrupt millennial climate change in the last glacial period

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gottwald, Georg

    2015-04-01

    We first confirm that the time series of Calcium concentrations in GRIP ice-core data exhibits a significant alpha-stable noise component as previously found by Ditlevsen (GRL 1999). Building on recent theoretical results from homogenisation theory for deterministic systems, we propose a simple conceptual entirely deterministic multi-scale model of the ocean-atmosphere-ice system which exhibits alpha-stable behaviour. Unlike in most models employing homogenisation theory we employ here chaotic dynamics exhibiting intermittency. The intermittency is associated with the atmospheric dynamics interacting with sea-ice dynamics. This is joint work with Nathan Duignan, Cameron Duncan and Eric Huang.

  4. Quantifying Climate Feedbacks from Abrupt Changes in High-Latitude Trace-Gas Emissions

    SciTech Connect

    Zhuang, Qianlai

    2012-11-16

    During the three-year project period, Purdue University has specifically accomplished the following: revised the existing Methane Dynamics Model (MDM) to consider the effects of changes of atmospheric pressure; applied the methane dynamics model (MDM) to Siberian region to demonstrate that ebullition estimates could increase previous estimates of regional terrestrial CH{sub 4} emissions 3- to 7-fold in Siberia; Conducted an analysis of the carbon balance of the Arctic Basin from 1997 to 2006 to show that terrestrial areas of the Arctic were a net source of 41.5 Tg CH{sub 4} yr{sup 1} that increased by 0.6 Tg CH{sub 4} yr{sup 1} during the decade of analysis, a magnitude that is comparable with an atmospheric inversion of CH{sub 4}; improved the quantification of CH{sub 4} fluxes in the Arctic with inversion methods; evaluated AIRS CH4 retrieval data with a transport and inversion model and surface flux and aircraft data; to better quantify methane emissions from wetlands, we extended the MDM within a biogeochemistry model, the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM), to include a large-scale hydrology model, the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model; more recently, we developed a single box atmospheric chemistry model involving atmospheric methane (CH{sub 4}), carbon monoxide (CO) and radical hydroxyl (OH) to analyze atmospheric CH{sub 4} concentrations from 1984 to 2008.

  5. Transitioning to independence and maintaining research careers in a new funding climate: american society of preventive oncology junior members interest group report.

    PubMed

    Hamilton, Jada G; Birmingham, Wendy C; Tehranifar, Parisa; Irwin, Melinda L; Klein, William M P; Nebeling, Linda; Chubak, Jessica

    2013-11-01

    The American Society of Preventive Oncology (ASPO) is a professional society for multi-disciplinary investigators in cancer prevention and control. The ASPO Junior Members Interest Group promotes the interests of predoctoral, postdoctoral, and junior faculty members within the Society, and provides them with career development and training opportunities. To this end, as part of the 37th ASPO Annual Meeting held in Memphis, Tennessee in March 2013, the Junior Members Interest Group organized a session designed to address issues faced by early-career investigators as they navigate the transition to become an independent, well-funded scientist with a sustainable program of research in the current climate of reduced and limited resources. Four speakers were invited to provide their complementary but distinct perspectives on this topic based on their personal experiences in academic, research-intensive positions and in federal funding agencies. This report summarizes the main themes that emerged from the speakers' presentations and audience questions related to mentoring; obtaining grant funding; publishing; developing expertise; navigating appointments, promotion, and tenure; and balancing demands. These lessons can be used by early-career investigators in cancer prevention and control as they transition to independence and build programs of fundable research. PMID:24190867

  6. Transitioning to Independence and Maintaining Research Careers in a New Funding Climate: American Society of Preventive Oncology Junior Members Interest Group Report

    PubMed Central

    Hamilton, Jada G.; Birmingham, Wendy C.; Tehranifar, Parisa; Irwin, Melinda L.; Klein, William M. P.; Nebeling, Linda; Chubak, Jessica

    2013-01-01

    The American Society of Preventive Oncology (ASPO) is a professional society for multi-disciplinary investigators in cancer prevention and control. The ASPO Junior Members Interest Group promotes the interests of predoctoral, postdoctoral, and junior faculty members within the Society, and provides them with career development and training opportunities. To this end, as part of the 37th ASPO Annual Meeting held in Memphis, Tennessee in March 2013, the Junior Members Interest Group organized a session designed to address issues faced by early career investigators as they navigate the transition to become an independent, well-funded scientist with a sustainable program of research in the current climate of reduced and limited resources. Four speakers were invited to provide their complementary but distinct perspectives on this topic based on their personal experiences in academic, research-intensive positions and in federal funding agencies. This report summarizes the main themes that emerged from the speakers’ presentations and audience questions related to mentoring; obtaining grant funding; publishing; developing expertise; navigating appointments, promotion, and tenure; and balancing demands. These lessons can be used by early career investigators in cancer prevention and control as they transition to independence and build programs of fundable research. PMID:24190867

  7. Dynamics of sea surface temperature and organic burial off equatorial west Africa (ODP Site 959) across the Late Miocene/early Pliocene climate transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eniola, Olunbunmi; Wagner, Thomas; McClymont, Erin

    2010-05-01

    The late Miocene-early Pliocene (11 to 3.5 Ma) was a period of major transition in global climate and ocean circulation that had irreversible consequences for atmospheric and ocean circulation leading to global cooling, northern hemisphere glaciations and modern climate conditions. Long term cooling contributed to a change in global vegetation from C3 plants to C4 plants. Norris (1998) and Wagner (2000) proposed from bulk 18O foraminifera and TOC records covering the Miocene-Pliocene transition at ODP Site 959 off Ivory Coast/Ghana the initial onset of modern atmospheric circulation and linked continental upwelling off tropical West Africa in response to the emplacement of the ITCZ into its modern position at that time. In this project, we aim to investigate the nature of the observed TOC cycles and its relationships to continental climate, vegetation change and surface ocean dynamics at centennial time scale resolution. To infer variations in SST and supply of continental organic matter (OM) we have started to obtain bulk and molecular data including TOC, alkenone-derived SST and leaf wax n-alkanes. The results show TOC to be generally low, between 0.1 and 0.7 %, and highly variable at cm-scale ( 2.5-5 kyr) resolution. Alkenones (C37:2 and C37:3) were ubiquitously identified. U37K based SST estimates ranging from 25-28°C indicate fluctuations of about 3°C within the range of modern day conditions. Long chain odd numbered n-alkanes C27-33 were also identified, with leaf wax concentration peaking at C31 at 25?g/TOC. The evidence for leaf waxes in the sediments argues for wind driven deposition from terrestrial sources. The high amplitude record of the TOC confirms a distinct cycle pattern that is probably related to orbital precession. Time frequency analyses of the TOC records by depth support the existence of two domi-nant periods related to eccentricity and precessional cycles at approximately the 92cm, 52cm and 42cm corresponding to 100kyrs, 19kyrs and 23kyrs

  8. A record of the variability of climate transitions between the last four glacial cycles from high-precision speleothem chronology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Polyak, V. J.; Asmerom, Y.; Lachniet, M. S.; Lapointe, Z. C.

    2011-12-01

    Speleothem growth in Fort Stanton Cave, central New Mexico in southwestern North America (SWNA), occurred predominantly during glacial periods for the last four glacial cycles, with some, but little growth spilling over into the glacial termination events. Given that lacustrine records show that glacial periods are pluvial periods in SWNA, Fort Stanton Cave speleothem growth seems to be a faithful indicator of periods of greater effective moisture for SWNA. Likewise, Asmerom et al. (2010) provided the first stable isotope record from a Fort Stanton stalagmite (FS-2) and reported an oxygen isotope record between 11.4 and 56 ka that closely mimicked the Greenland ice core oxygen records over much of the last glacial period. The δ18O variation in FS-2 reflected changes in the amount of winter precipitation, which in turn reflected the position of the Polar Jet Stream in response to changes in Northern Hemisphere temperature gradient. In contrast, variations in δ13C primarily reflect changes in the amount and type of vegetation which is linked to changes in local aridity. The stalagmites from this cave have high uranium, high δ234U and low detritus thorium and are thus ideally suited for dating using the uranium-series technique. Here we present a record of climate variability for the previous four ice ages. Based on growth of multiple stalagmites, we define the period from ~60 to 14.5 ka as speleothem-based pluvial 1 (SWNA-P1). Speleothems FS-5, FS-6, TR-2, TR-3 and HH-1 grew during glacial cycles 2-4, which we define as pluvials 2, 3, & 4 (SWNA-P2, P3, and P4) where preliminary results suggest that SWNA-P2 lasted from 170 to 130 ka, SWNA-P3 from 265 to 242 ka, and SWNA-P4 from 352 to 336 ka. Growth hiatuses and the carbon isotope records indicate the timing of pluvial terminations. Overall, SWNA-P3 is more similar to SWNA-P1, showing events that may have been more complex, with both exhibiting stadial- and interstadial-like climatic signals, while SWNA-P2 and P4

  9. Role of seasonal transitions and westerly jets in East Asian paleoclimate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chiang, John C. H.; Fung, Inez Y.; Wu, Chi-Hua; Cai, Yanjun; Edman, Jacob P.; Liu, Yuwei; Day, Jesse A.; Bhattacharya, Tripti; Mondal, Yugarshi; Labrousse, Clothilde A.

    2015-01-01

    The summer rainfall climate of East Asia underwent large and abrupt changes during past climates, in response to precessional forcing, glacial-interglacial cycles as well as abrupt changes to the North Atlantic during the Last Glacial. However, current interpretations of said changes are typically formulated in terms of modulation of summer monsoon intensity, and do not account for the known complexity in the seasonal evolution of East Asian rainfall, which exhibits sharp transition from the Spring regime to the Meiyu, and then again from the Meiyu to the Summer regime. We explore the interpretation that East Asian rainfall climate undergoes a modulation of its seasonality during said paleoclimate changes. Following previous suggestions we focus on role of the westerly jet over Asia, namely that its latitude relative to Tibet is critical in determining the stepwise transitions in East Asian rainfall seasons. In support of this linkage, we show from observational data that the interannual co-variation of June (July-August) rainfall and upper tropospheric zonal winds show properties consistent with an altered timing of the transition to the Meiyu (Summer), and with more northward-shifted westerlies for earlier transitions. We similarly suggest that East Asian paleoclimate changes resulted from an altered timing in the northward evolution of the jet and hence the seasonal transitions, in particular the transition of the jet from south of the Plateau to the north that determines the seasonal transition from Spring rains to the Meiyu. In an extreme scenario - which we speculate the climate system tended towards during stadial (cold) phases of D/O stadials and periods of low Northern Hemisphere summer insolation - the jet does not jump north of the Plateau, essentially keeping East Asia in prolonged Spring conditions. We argue that this hypothesis provides a viable explanation for a key paleoproxy signature of D/O stadials over East Asia, namely the heavier mean δ18O of

  10. Climatic stress events in the source region of modern man - Matching the last 20 ka of the Chew Bahir climate record with occupation history of adjacent refugia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Foerster, Verena; Vogelsang, Ralf; Junginger, Annett; Asrat, Asfawossen; Lamb, Henry F.; Viehberg, Finn; Trauth, Martin H.; Schaebitz, Frank

    2014-05-01

    A rapidly changing environment is considered an important driver not just for human evolution but also for cultural and technological innovation and migration. To evaluate the impact that climatic shifts on different timescales might have had on the living conditions of prehistoric humans is one of the cornerstones in current research, but continuous paleo-climate records in the vicinity of archaeological sites are still rare. As a contribution towards a better understanding of this human-climate interaction we here present a match between the last 20 ka of the just recently developed paleo-climate record from Chew Bahir in southern Ethiopia and the settlement history of adjacent possible refugia. The Chew Bahir basin, as a newly explored reliable climatic archive, lies in a biogeographically highly sensitive trans