I-131 Dose Response for Incident Thyroid Cancers in Ukraine Related to the Chornobyl Accident

PubMed Central

Tronko, Mykola D.; Hatch, Maureen; Bogdanova, Tetyana I.; Oliynik, Valery A.; Lubin, Jay H.; Zablotska, Lydia B.; Tereschenko, Valery P.; McConnell, Robert J.; Zamotaeva, Galina A.; O’Kane, Patrick; Bouville, Andre C.; Chaykovskaya, Ludmila V.; Greenebaum, Ellen; Paster, Ihor P.; Shpak, Victor M.; Ron, Elaine

2011-01-01

Background: Current knowledge about Chornobyl-related thyroid cancer risks comes from ecological studies based on grouped doses, case–control studies, and studies of prevalent cancers. Objective: To address this limitation, we evaluated the dose–response relationship for incident thyroid cancers using measurement-based individual iodine-131 (I-131) thyroid dose estimates in a prospective analytic cohort study. Methods: The cohort consists of individuals < 18 years of age on 26 April 1986 who resided in three contaminated oblasts (states) of Ukraine and underwent up to four thyroid screening examinations between 1998 and 2007 (n = 12,514). Thyroid doses of I-131 were estimated based on individual radioactivity measurements taken within 2 months after the accident, environmental transport models, and interview data. Excess radiation risks were estimated using Poisson regression models. Results: Sixty-five incident thyroid cancers were diagnosed during the second through fourth screenings and 73,004 person-years (PY) of observation. The dose–response relationship was consistent with linearity on relative and absolute scales, although the excess relative risk (ERR) model described data better than did the excess absolute risk (EAR) model. The ERR per gray was 1.91 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.43–6.34], and the EAR per 104 PY/Gy was 2.21 (95% CI, 0.04–5.78). The ERR per gray varied significantly by oblast of residence but not by time since exposure, use of iodine prophylaxis, iodine status, sex, age, or tumor size. Conclusions: I-131–related thyroid cancer risks persisted for two decades after exposure, with no evidence of decrease during the observation period. The radiation risks, although smaller, are compatible with those of retrospective and ecological post-Chornobyl studies. PMID:21406336

Quantifying Treatment Benefit in Molecular Subgroups to Assess a Predictive Biomarker

PubMed Central

Iasonos, Alexia; Chapman, Paul B.; Satagopan, Jaya M.

2016-01-01

There is an increased interest in finding predictive biomarkers that can guide treatment options for both mutation carriers and non-carriers. The statistical assessment of variation in treatment benefit (TB) according to the biomarker carrier status plays an important role in evaluating predictive biomarkers. For time to event endpoints, the hazard ratio (HR) for interaction between treatment and a biomarker from a Proportional Hazards regression model is commonly used as a measure of variation in treatment benefit. While this can be easily obtained using available statistical software packages, the interpretation of HR is not straightforward. In this article, we propose different summary measures of variation in TB on the scale of survival probabilities for evaluating a predictive biomarker. The proposed summary measures can be easily interpreted as quantifying differential in TB in terms of relative risk or excess absolute risk due to treatment in carriers versus non-carriers. We illustrate the use and interpretation of the proposed measures using data from completed clinical trials. We encourage clinical practitioners to interpret variation in TB in terms of measures based on survival probabilities, particularly in terms of excess absolute risk, as opposed to HR. PMID:27141007

Simulation study of the effect of influenza and influenza vaccination on risk of acquiring Guillain-Barré syndrome.

PubMed

Hawken, Steven; Kwong, Jeffrey C; Deeks, Shelley L; Crowcroft, Natasha S; McGeer, Allison J; Ducharme, Robin; Campitelli, Michael A; Coyle, Doug; Wilson, Kumanan

2015-02-01

It is unclear whether seasonal influenza vaccination results in a net increase or decrease in the risk for Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS). To assess the effect of seasonal influenza vaccination on the absolute risk of acquiring GBS, we used simulation models and published estimates of age- and sex-specific risks for GBS, influenza incidence, and vaccine effectiveness. For a hypothetical 45-year-old woman and 75-year-old man, excess GBS risk for influenza vaccination versus no vaccination was -0.36/1 million vaccinations (95% credible interval -1.22% to 0.28) and -0.42/1 million vaccinations (95% credible interval, -3.68 to 2.44), respectively. These numbers represent a small absolute reduction in GBS risk with vaccination. Under typical conditions (e.g. influenza incidence rates >5% and vaccine effectiveness >60%), vaccination reduced GBS risk. These findings should strengthen confidence in the safety of influenza vaccine and allow health professionals to better put GBS risk in context when discussing influenza vaccination with patients.

Using reference values to define disease based on the lower limit of normal biased the population attributable fraction, but not the population excess risk: the example of chronic airflow obstruction.

PubMed

Burney, Peter; Minelli, Cosetta

2018-01-01

The impact of disease on population health is most commonly estimated by the population attributable fraction (PAF), or less commonly by the excess risk, an alternative measure that estimates the absolute risk of disease in the population that can be ascribed to the exposure. Using chronic airflow obstruction as an example, we examined the impact on these estimates of defining disease based on different "normal" values. We estimated PAF and the excess risk in scenarios in which the true rate of disease was 10% in the exposed and 5% in the unexposed, and where either 50% or 20% of the population was exposed. Disease definition was based on a "lower limit of normal", using the 5th, 1st and 0.2nd centile of values in a "normal" population as thresholds to define normality. Where normality is defined by centiles of values in a "normal" population, PAF is strongly influenced by which centile is selected to define normality. This is not true for the population excess risk. Care should be taken when interpreting estimates of PAF when disease is defined from a centile of a normal population. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Quantifying Treatment Benefit in Molecular Subgroups to Assess a Predictive Biomarker.

PubMed

Iasonos, Alexia; Chapman, Paul B; Satagopan, Jaya M

2016-05-01

An increased interest has been expressed in finding predictive biomarkers that can guide treatment options for both mutation carriers and noncarriers. The statistical assessment of variation in treatment benefit (TB) according to the biomarker carrier status plays an important role in evaluating predictive biomarkers. For time-to-event endpoints, the hazard ratio (HR) for interaction between treatment and a biomarker from a proportional hazards regression model is commonly used as a measure of variation in TB. Although this can be easily obtained using available statistical software packages, the interpretation of HR is not straightforward. In this article, we propose different summary measures of variation in TB on the scale of survival probabilities for evaluating a predictive biomarker. The proposed summary measures can be easily interpreted as quantifying differential in TB in terms of relative risk or excess absolute risk due to treatment in carriers versus noncarriers. We illustrate the use and interpretation of the proposed measures with data from completed clinical trials. We encourage clinical practitioners to interpret variation in TB in terms of measures based on survival probabilities, particularly in terms of excess absolute risk, as opposed to HR. Clin Cancer Res; 22(9); 2114-20. ©2016 AACR. ©2016 American Association for Cancer Research.

Simulation Study of the Effect of Influenza and Influenza Vaccination on Risk of Acquiring Guillain-Barré Syndrome

PubMed Central

Hawken, Steven; Kwong, Jeffrey C.; Deeks, Shelley L.; Crowcroft, Natasha S.; McGeer, Allison J.; Ducharme, Robin; Campitelli, Michael A.; Coyle, Doug

2015-01-01

It is unclear whether seasonal influenza vaccination results in a net increase or decrease in the risk for Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS). To assess the effect of seasonal influenza vaccination on the absolute risk of acquiring GBS, we used simulation models and published estimates of age- and sex-specific risks for GBS, influenza incidence, and vaccine effectiveness. For a hypothetical 45-year-old woman and 75-year-old man, excess GBS risk for influenza vaccination versus no vaccination was −0.36/1 million vaccinations (95% credible interval −1.22 to 0.28) and −0.42/1 million vaccinations (95% credible interval, –3.68 to 2.44), respectively. These numbers represent a small absolute reduction in GBS risk with vaccination. Under typical conditions (e.g. influenza incidence rates >5% and vaccine effectiveness >60%), vaccination reduced GBS risk. These findings should strengthen confidence in the safety of influenza vaccine and allow health professionals to better put GBS risk in context when discussing influenza vaccination with patients. PMID:25625590

Cardioprotective aspirin users and their excess risk of upper gastrointestinal complications.

PubMed

Hernández-Díaz, Sonia; García Rodríguez, Luis A

2006-09-20

To balance the cardiovascular benefits from low-dose aspirin against the gastrointestinal harm caused, studies have considered the coronary heart disease risk for each individual but not their gastrointestinal risk profile. We characterized the gastrointestinal risk profile of low-dose aspirin users in real clinical practice, and estimated the excess risk of upper gastrointestinal complications attributable to aspirin among patients with different gastrointestinal risk profiles. To characterize aspirin users in terms of major gastrointestinal risk factors (i.e., advanced age, male sex, prior ulcer history and use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs), we used The General Practice Research Database in the United Kingdom and the Base de Datos para la Investigación Farmacoepidemiológica en Atención Primaria in Spain. To estimate the baseline risk of upper gastrointestinal complications according to major gastrointestinal risk factors and the excess risk attributable to aspirin within levels of these factors, we used previously published meta-analyses on both absolute and relative risks of upper gastrointestinal complications. Over 60% of aspirin users are above 60 years of age, 4 to 6% have a recent history of peptic ulcers and over 13% use other non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs. The estimated average excess risk of upper gastrointestinal complications attributable to aspirin is around 5 extra cases per 1,000 aspirin users per year. However, the excess risk varies in parallel to the underlying gastrointestinal risk and might be above 10 extra cases per 1,000 person-years in over 10% of aspirin users. In addition to the cardiovascular risk, the underlying gastrointestinal risk factors have to be considered when balancing harms and benefits of aspirin use for an individual patient. The gastrointestinal harms may offset the cardiovascular benefits in certain groups of patients where the gastrointestinal risk is high and the cardiovascular risk is low.

Cardioprotective aspirin users and their excess risk of upper gastrointestinal complications

PubMed Central

Hernández-Díaz, Sonia; García Rodríguez, Luis A

2006-01-01

Background To balance the cardiovascular benefits from low-dose aspirin against the gastrointestinal harm caused, studies have considered the coronary heart disease risk for each individual but not their gastrointestinal risk profile. We characterized the gastrointestinal risk profile of low-dose aspirin users in real clinical practice, and estimated the excess risk of upper gastrointestinal complications attributable to aspirin among patients with different gastrointestinal risk profiles. Methods To characterize aspirin users in terms of major gastrointestinal risk factors (i.e., advanced age, male sex, prior ulcer history and use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs), we used The General Practice Research Database in the United Kingdom and the Base de Datos para la Investigación Farmacoepidemiológica en Atención Primaria in Spain. To estimate the baseline risk of upper gastrointestinal complications according to major gastrointestinal risk factors and the excess risk attributable to aspirin within levels of these factors, we used previously published meta-analyses on both absolute and relative risks of upper gastrointestinal complications. Results Over 60% of aspirin users are above 60 years of age, 4 to 6% have a recent history of peptic ulcers and over 13% use other non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs. The estimated average excess risk of upper gastrointestinal complications attributable to aspirin is around 5 extra cases per 1,000 aspirin users per year. However, the excess risk varies in parallel to the underlying gastrointestinal risk and might be above 10 extra cases per 1,000 person-years in over 10% of aspirin users. Conclusion In addition to the cardiovascular risk, the underlying gastrointestinal risk factors have to be considered when balancing harms and benefits of aspirin use for an individual patient. The gastrointestinal harms may offset the cardiovascular benefits in certain groups of patients where the gastrointestinal risk is high and the cardiovascular risk is low. PMID:16987411

Radiation-induced second primary cancer risks from modern external beam radiotherapy for early prostate cancer: impact of stereotactic ablative radiotherapy (SABR), volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT) and flattening filter free (FFF) radiotherapy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murray, Louise J.; Thompson, Christopher M.; Lilley, John; Cosgrove, Vivian; Franks, Kevin; Sebag-Montefiore, David; Henry, Ann M.

2015-02-01

Risks of radiation-induced second primary cancer following prostate radiotherapy using 3D-conformal radiotherapy (3D-CRT), intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT), volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT), flattening filter free (FFF) and stereotactic ablative radiotherapy (SABR) were evaluated. Prostate plans were created using 10 MV 3D-CRT (78 Gy in 39 fractions) and 6 MV 5-field IMRT (78 Gy in 39 fractions), VMAT (78 Gy in 39 fractions, with standard flattened and energy-matched FFF beams) and SABR (42.7 Gy in 7 fractions with standard flattened and energy-matched FFF beams). Dose-volume histograms from pelvic planning CT scans of three prostate patients, each planned using all 6 techniques, were used to calculate organ equivalent doses (OED) and excess absolute risks (EAR) of second rectal and bladder cancers, and pelvic bone and soft tissue sarcomas, using mechanistic, bell-shaped and plateau models. For organs distant to the treatment field, chamber measurements recorded in an anthropomorphic phantom were used to calculate OEDs and EARs using a linear model. Ratios of OED give relative radiation-induced second cancer risks. SABR resulted in lower second cancer risks at all sites relative to 3D-CRT. FFF resulted in lower second cancer risks in out-of-field tissues relative to equivalent flattened techniques, with increasing impact in organs at greater distances from the field. For example, FFF reduced second cancer risk by up to 20% in the stomach and up to 56% in the brain, relative to the equivalent flattened technique. Relative to 10 MV 3D-CRT, 6 MV IMRT or VMAT with flattening filter increased second cancer risks in several out-of-field organs, by up to 26% and 55%, respectively. For all techniques, EARs were consistently low. The observed large relative differences between techniques, in absolute terms, were very low, highlighting the importance of considering absolute risks alongside the corresponding relative risks, since when absolute risks are very low, large relative risks become less meaningful. A calculated relative radiation-induced second cancer risk benefit from SABR and FFF techniques was theoretically predicted, although absolute radiation-induced second cancer risks were low for all techniques, and absolute differences between techniques were small.

Aspirin and the Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Diseases: An Approach Based on Individualized, Integrated Estimation of Risk.

PubMed

Volpe, Massimo; Battistoni, Allegra; Gallo, Giovanna; Coluccia, Roberta; De Caterina, Raffaele

2017-09-01

While the use of aspirin in the secondary prevention of cardiovascular (CVD) is well established, aspirin in primary prevention is not systematically recommended because the absolute CV event reduction is similar to the absolute excess in major bleedings. Recently, emerging evidence suggests the possibility that the assumption of aspirin, may also be effective in the prevention of cancer. By adding to the CV prevention benefits the potential beneficial effect of aspirin in reducing the incidence of mortality and cancer could tip the balance between risks and benefits of aspirin therapy in the primary prevention in favour of the latter and broaden the indication for treatment with in populations at average risk. While prospective and randomized study are currently investigating the effect of aspirin in prevention of both cancer and CVD, clinical efforts at the individual level to promote the use of aspirin in global (or total) primary prevention could be already based on a balanced evaluation of the benefit/risk ratio.

Relative and absolute risks of all-cause and cause-specific deaths attributable to atrial fibrillation in middle-aged and elderly community dwellers.

PubMed

Ohsawa, Masaki; Okamura, Tomonori; Ogasawara, Kuniaki; Ogawa, Akira; Fujioka, Tomoaki; Tanno, Kozo; Yonekura, Yuki; Omama, Shinichi; Turin, Tanvir Chowdhury; Itai, Kazuyoshi; Ishibashi, Yasuhiro; Morino, Yoshihiro; Itoh, Tomonori; Miyamatsu, Naomi; Onoda, Toshiyuki; Kuribayashi, Toru; Makita, Shinji; Yoshida, Yuki; Nakamura, Motoyuki; Tanaka, Fumitaka; Ohta, Mutsuko; Sakata, Kiyomi; Okayama, Akira

2015-04-01

The relative and absolute risks of outcomes other than all-cause death (ACD) attributable to atrial fibrillation (AF) stratified age have not been sufficiently investigated. A prospective study of 23,634 community dwellers aged 40 years or older without organic cardiovascular disease (AF=335, non-AF=23,299) was conducted. Multivariate-adjusted rates, rate ratios (RRs) and excess deaths (EDs) for ACD, cardiovascular death (CVD) and non-cardiovascular death (non-CVD), and sex- and age-adjusted RR and ED in middle-aged (40 to 69) and elderly (70 years or older) for ACD, CVD, non-CVD, sudden cardiac death (SCD), stroke-related death (Str-D), neoplasm-related death (NPD), and infection-related death (IFD) attributable to AF were estimated using Poisson regression. Multivariate-adjusted analysis revealed that AF significantly increased the risk of ACD (RR [95% confidence interval]:1.70 [1.23-2.95]) and CVD (3.86 [2.38-6.27]), but not non-CVD. Age-stratified analysis revealed that AF increased the risk of Str-D in middle-aged (14.5 [4.77-44.3]) and elderly individuals (4.92 [1.91-12.7]), SCD in elderly individuals (3.21 [1.37-7.51]), and might increase the risk of IFD in elderly individuals (2.02 [0.80-4.65], p=0.098). The RR of CVD was higher in middle-aged versus elderly individuals (RRs, 6.19 vs. 3.57) but the absolute risk difference was larger in elderly individuals (EDs: 7.6 vs. 3.0 per 1000 person-years). Larger absolute risk differences for ACD and CVD attributable to AF among elderly people indicate that the absolute burden of AF is higher in elderly versus middle-aged people despite the relatively small RR. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long-term effects of wealth on mortality and self-rated health status.

PubMed

Hajat, Anjum; Kaufman, Jay S; Rose, Kathryn M; Siddiqi, Arjumand; Thomas, James C

2011-01-15

Epidemiologic studies seldom include wealth as a component of socioeconomic status. The authors investigated the associations between wealth and 2 broad outcome measures: mortality and self-rated general health status. Data from the longitudinal Panel Study of Income Dynamics, collected in a US population between 1984 and 2005, were used to fit marginal structural models and to estimate relative and absolute measures of effect. Wealth was specified as a 6-category variable: those with ≤0 wealth and quintiles of positive wealth. There were a 16%-44% higher risk and 6-18 excess cases of poor/fair health (per 1,000 persons) among the less wealthy relative to the wealthiest quintile. Less wealthy men, women, and whites had higher risk of poor/fair health relative to their wealthy counterparts. The overall wealth-mortality association revealed a 62% increased risk and 4 excess deaths (per 1,000 persons) among the least wealthy. Less wealthy women had between a 24% and a 90% higher risk of death, and the least wealthy men had 6 excess deaths compared with the wealthiest quintile. Overall, there was a strong inverse association between wealth and poor health status and between wealth and mortality.

Risk of Developing Cardiovascular Disease After Involved Node Radiotherapy Versus Mantle Field for Hodgkin Lymphoma

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Maraldo, Maja V., E-mail: dra.maraldo@gmail.com; Brodin, Nils Patrik; Vogelius, Ivan R.

2012-07-15

Purpose: Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) survivors are known to have increased cardiac mortality and morbidity. The risk of developing cardiovascular disease after involved node radiotherapy (INRT) is currently unresolved, inasmuch as present clinical data are derived from patients treated with the outdated mantle field (MF) technique. Methods and Materials: We included all adolescents and young adults with supradiaphragmatic, clinical Stage I-II HL treated at our institution from 2006 to 2010 (29 patients). All patients were treated with chemotherapy and INRT to 30 to 36 Gy. We then simulated a MF plan for each patient with a prescribed dose of 36 Gy.more » A logistic dose-response curve for the 25-year absolute excess risk of cardiovascular disease was derived and applied to each patient using the individual dose-volume histograms. Results: The mean doses to the heart, four heart valves, and coronary arteries were significantly lower for INRT than for MF treatment. However, the range in doses with INRT treatment was substantial, and for a subgroup of patients, with lymphoma below the fourth thoracic vertebrae, we estimated a 25-year absolute excess risk of any cardiac event of as much as 5.1%. Conclusions: Our study demonstrates a potential for individualizing treatment by selecting the patients for whom INRT provides sufficient cardiac protection for current technology; and a subgroup of patients, who still receive high cardiac doses, who would benefit from more advanced radiation technique.« less

Radiation exposure from CT scans in childhood and subsequent risk of leukaemia and brain tumours: a retrospective cohort study

PubMed Central

Pearce, Mark S; Salotti, Jane A; Little, Mark P; McHugh, Kieran; Lee, Choonsik; Kim, Kwang Pyo; Howe, Nicola L; Ronckers, Cecile M; Rajaraman, Preetha; Craft, Alan W; Parker, Louise; de González, Amy Berrington

2012-01-01

Summary Background Although CT scans are very useful clinically, potential cancer risks exist from associated ionising radiation, in particular for children who are more radiosensitive than adults. We aimed to assess the excess risk of leukaemia and brain tumours after CT scans in a cohort of children and young adults. Methods In our retrospective cohort study, we included patients without previous cancer diagnoses who were first examined with CT in National Health Service (NHS) centres in England, Wales, or Scotland (Great Britain) between 1985 and 2002, when they were younger than 22 years of age. We obtained data for cancer incidence, mortality, and loss to follow-up from the NHS Central Registry from Jan 1, 1985, to Dec 31, 2008. We estimated absorbed brain and red bone marrow doses per CT scan in mGy and assessed excess incidence of leukaemia and brain tumours cancer with Poisson relative risk models. To avoid inclusion of CT scans related to cancer diagnosis, follow-up for leukaemia began 2 years after the first CT and for brain tumours 5 years after the first CT. Findings During follow-up, 74 of 178 604 patients were diagnosed with leukaemia and 135 of 176 587 patients were diagnosed with brain tumours. We noted a positive association between radiation dose from CT scans and leukaemia (excess relative risk [ERR] per mGy 0·036, 95% CI 0·005–0·120; p=0·0097) and brain tumours (0·023, 0·010–0·049; p<0·0001). Compared with patients who received a dose of less than 5 mGy, the relative risk of leukaemia for patients who received a cumulative dose of at least 30 mGy (mean dose 51·13 mGy) was 3·18 (95% CI 1·46–6·94) and the relative risk of brain cancer for patients who received a cumulative dose of 50–74 mGy (mean dose 60·42 mGy) was 2·82 (1·33–6·03). Interpretation Use of CT scans in children to deliver cumulative doses of about 50 mGy might almost triple the risk of leukaemia and doses of about 60 mGy might triple the risk of brain cancer. Because these cancers are relatively rare, the cumulative absolute risks are small: in the 10 years after the first scan for patients younger than 10 years, one excess case of leukaemia and one excess case of brain tumour per 10 000 head CT scans is estimated to occur. Nevertheless, although clinical benefits should outweigh the small absolute risks, radiation doses from CT scans ought to be kept as low as possible and alternative procedures, which do not involve ionising radiation, should be considered if appropriate. Funding US National Cancer Institute and UK Department of Health. PMID:22681860

Radiation exposure from CT scans in childhood and subsequent risk of leukaemia and brain tumours: a retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Pearce, Mark S; Salotti, Jane A; Little, Mark P; McHugh, Kieran; Lee, Choonsik; Kim, Kwang Pyo; Howe, Nicola L; Ronckers, Cecile M; Rajaraman, Preetha; Sir Craft, Alan W; Parker, Louise; Berrington de González, Amy

2012-08-04

Although CT scans are very useful clinically, potential cancer risks exist from associated ionising radiation, in particular for children who are more radiosensitive than adults. We aimed to assess the excess risk of leukaemia and brain tumours after CT scans in a cohort of children and young adults. In our retrospective cohort study, we included patients without previous cancer diagnoses who were first examined with CT in National Health Service (NHS) centres in England, Wales, or Scotland (Great Britain) between 1985 and 2002, when they were younger than 22 years of age. We obtained data for cancer incidence, mortality, and loss to follow-up from the NHS Central Registry from Jan 1, 1985, to Dec 31, 2008. We estimated absorbed brain and red bone marrow doses per CT scan in mGy and assessed excess incidence of leukaemia and brain tumours cancer with Poisson relative risk models. To avoid inclusion of CT scans related to cancer diagnosis, follow-up for leukaemia began 2 years after the first CT and for brain tumours 5 years after the first CT. During follow-up, 74 of 178,604 patients were diagnosed with leukaemia and 135 of 176,587 patients were diagnosed with brain tumours. We noted a positive association between radiation dose from CT scans and leukaemia (excess relative risk [ERR] per mGy 0·036, 95% CI 0·005-0·120; p=0·0097) and brain tumours (0·023, 0·010-0·049; p<0·0001). Compared with patients who received a dose of less than 5 mGy, the relative risk of leukaemia for patients who received a cumulative dose of at least 30 mGy (mean dose 51·13 mGy) was 3·18 (95% CI 1·46-6·94) and the relative risk of brain cancer for patients who received a cumulative dose of 50-74 mGy (mean dose 60·42 mGy) was 2·82 (1·33-6·03). Use of CT scans in children to deliver cumulative doses of about 50 mGy might almost triple the risk of leukaemia and doses of about 60 mGy might triple the risk of brain cancer. Because these cancers are relatively rare, the cumulative absolute risks are small: in the 10 years after the first scan for patients younger than 10 years, one excess case of leukaemia and one excess case of brain tumour per 10,000 head CT scans is estimated to occur. Nevertheless, although clinical benefits should outweigh the small absolute risks, radiation doses from CT scans ought to be kept as low as possible and alternative procedures, which do not involve ionising radiation, should be considered if appropriate. US National Cancer Institute and UK Department of Health. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A method for determining weights for excess relative risk and excess absolute risk when applied in the calculation of lifetime risk of cancer from radiation exposure.

PubMed

Walsh, Linda; Schneider, Uwe

2013-03-01

Radiation-related risks of cancer can be transported from one population to another population at risk, for the purpose of calculating lifetime risks from radiation exposure. Transfer via excess relative risks (ERR) or excess absolute risks (EAR) or a mixture of both (i.e., from the life span study (LSS) of Japanese atomic bomb survivors) has been done in the past based on qualitative weighting. Consequently, the values of the weights applied and the method of application of the weights (i.e., as additive or geometric weighted means) have varied both between reports produced at different times by the same regulatory body and also between reports produced at similar times by different regulatory bodies. Since the gender and age patterns are often markedly different between EAR and ERR models, it is useful to have an evidence-based method for determining the relative goodness of fit of such models to the data. This paper identifies a method, using Akaike model weights, which could aid expert judgment and be applied to help to achieve consistency of approach and quantitative evidence-based results in future health risk assessments. The results of applying this method to recent LSS cancer incidence models are that the relative EAR weighting by cancer solid cancer site, on a scale of 0-1, is zero for breast and colon, 0.02 for all solid, 0.03 for lung, 0.08 for liver, 0.15 for thyroid, 0.18 for bladder and 0.93 for stomach. The EAR weighting for female breast cancer increases from 0 to 0.3, if a generally observed change in the trend between female age-specific breast cancer incidence rates and attained age, associated with menopause, is accounted for in the EAR model. Application of this method to preferred models from a study of multi-model inference from many models fitted to the LSS leukemia mortality data, results in an EAR weighting of 0. From these results it can be seen that lifetime risk transfer is most highly weighted by EAR only for stomach cancer. However, the generalization and interpretation of radiation effect estimates based on the LSS cancer data, when projected to other populations, are particularly uncertain if considerable differences exist between site-specific baseline rates in the LSS and the other populations of interest. Definitive conclusions, regarding the appropriate method for transporting cancer risks, are limited by a lack of knowledge in several areas including unknown factors and uncertainties in biological mechanisms and genetic and environmental risk factors for carcinogenesis; uncertainties in radiation dosimetry; and insufficient statistical power and/or incomplete follow-up in data from radio-epidemiological studies.

Long-Term Risk of Subsequent Malignant Neoplasms After Treatment of Childhood Cancer in the DCOG LATER Study Cohort: Role of Chemotherapy.

PubMed

Teepen, Jop C; van Leeuwen, Flora E; Tissing, Wim J; van Dulmen-den Broeder, Eline; van den Heuvel-Eibrink, Marry M; van der Pal, Helena J; Loonen, Jacqueline J; Bresters, Dorine; Versluys, Birgitta; Neggers, Sebastian J C M M; Jaspers, Monique W M; Hauptmann, Michael; van der Heiden-van der Loo, Margriet; Visser, Otto; Kremer, Leontien C M; Ronckers, Cécile M

2017-07-10

Purpose Childhood cancer survivors (CCSs) are at increased risk for subsequent malignant neoplasms (SMNs). We evaluated the long-term risk of SMNs in a well-characterized cohort of 5-year CCSs, with a particular focus on individual chemotherapeutic agents and solid cancer risk. Methods The Dutch Childhood Cancer Oncology Group-Long-Term Effects After Childhood Cancer cohort includes 6,165 5-year CCSs diagnosed between 1963 and 2001 in the Netherlands. SMNs were identified by linkages with the Netherlands Cancer Registry, the Dutch Pathology Registry, and medical chart review. We calculated standardized incidence ratios, excess absolute risks, and cumulative incidences. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression analyses were used to evaluate treatment-associated risks for breast cancer, sarcoma, and all solid cancers. Results After a median follow-up of 20.7 years (range, 5.0 to 49.8 years) since first diagnosis, 291 SMNs were ascertained in 261 CCSs (standardized incidence ratio, 5.2; 95% CI, 4.6 to 5.8; excess absolute risk, 20.3/10,000 person-years). Cumulative SMN incidence at 25 years after first diagnosis was 3.9% (95% CI, 3.4% to 4.6%) and did not change noticeably among CCSs treated in the 1990s compared with those treated earlier. We found dose-dependent doxorubicin-related increased risks of all solid cancers ( P trend < .001) and breast cancer ( P trend < .001). The doxorubicin-breast cancer dose response was stronger in survivors of Li-Fraumeni syndrome-associated childhood cancers (leukemia, CNS, and non-Ewing sarcoma) versus survivors of other cancers ( P difference = .008). In addition, cyclophosphamide was found to increase sarcoma risk in a dose-dependent manner ( P trend = .01). Conclusion The results strongly suggest that doxorubicin exposure in CCSs increases the risk of subsequent solid cancers and breast cancer, whereas cyclophosphamide exposure increases the risk of subsequent sarcomas. These results may inform future childhood cancer treatment protocols and SMN surveillance guidelines for CCSs.

Cardiac Mortality Among 200 000 Five-Year Survivors of Cancer Diagnosed at 15 to 39 Years of Age

PubMed Central

Henson, Katherine E.; Reulen, Raoul C.; Winter, David L.; Bright, Chloe J.; Fidler, Miranda M.; Frobisher, Clare; Guha, Joyeeta; Wong, Kwok F.; Kelly, Julie; Edgar, Angela B.; McCabe, Martin G.; Whelan, Jeremy; Cutter, David J.; Darby, Sarah C.

2016-01-01

Background: Survivors of teenage and young adult cancer are acknowledged as understudied. Little is known about their long-term adverse health risks, particularly of cardiac disease that is increased in other cancer populations where cardiotoxic treatments have been used. Methods: The Teenage and Young Adult Cancer Survivor Study cohort comprises 200 945 5-year survivors of cancer diagnosed at 15 to 39 years of age in England and Wales from 1971 to 2006, and followed to 2014. Standardized mortality ratios, absolute excess risks, and cumulative risks were calculated. Results: Two thousand sixteen survivors died of cardiac disease. For all cancers combined, the standardized mortality ratios for all cardiac diseases combined was greatest for individuals diagnosed at 15 to 19 years of age (4.2; 95% confidence interval, 3.4–5.2) decreasing to 1.2 (95% confidence interval, 1.1–1.3) for individuals aged 35 to 39 years (2P for trend <0.0001). Similar patterns were observed for both standardized mortality ratios and absolute excess risks for ischemic heart disease, valvular heart disease, and cardiomyopathy. Survivors of Hodgkin lymphoma, acute myeloid leukaemia, genitourinary cancers other than bladder cancer, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, lung cancer, leukaemia other than acute myeloid, central nervous system tumour, cervical cancer, and breast cancer experienced 3.8, 2.7, 2.0, 1.7, 1.7, 1.6, 1.4, 1.3 and 1.2 times the number of cardiac deaths expected from the general population, respectively. Among survivors of Hodgkin lymphoma aged over 60 years, almost 30% of the total excess number of deaths observed were due to heart disease. Conclusions: This study of over 200 000 cancer survivors shows that age at cancer diagnosis was critical in determining subsequent cardiac mortality risk. For the first time, risk estimates of cardiac death after each cancer diagnosed between the ages of 15 and 39 years have been derived from a large population-based cohort with prolonged follow-up. The evidence here provides an initial basis for developing evidence-based follow-up guidelines. PMID:27821538

Minimizing excess air could be wasting energy in process heaters

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lieberman, N.P.

1988-02-01

Operating a process heater simply to achieve a minimum excess oxygen target in the flue gas may be wasting energy in some process heaters. That's because the real minimum excess oxygen percentage is that required to reach the point of absolute combustion in the furnace. The oxygen target required to achieve absolute combustion may be 1%, or it may be 6%, depending on the operating characteristics of the furnace. Where natural gas is burned, incomplete combustion can occur, wasting fuel dollars. Energy can be wasted because of some misconceptions regarding excess air control. These are: 2-3% excess oxygen in themore » flue gas is a universally good target, too little excess oxygen will always cause the evolution of black smoke in the stack, and excess air requirements are unaffected by commissioning an air preheater.« less

Long-term risk of renal and urinary tract diseases in childhood cancer survivors: A population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Bonnesen, Trine Gade; Winther, Jeanette F; Asdahl, Peter H; de Fine Licht, Sofie; Gudmundsdottir, Thorgerdur; Sällfors Holmqvist, Anna; Madanat-Harjuoja, Laura-Maria; Tryggvadottir, Laufey; Wesenberg, Finn; Birn, Henrik; Olsen, Jørgen H; Hasle, Henrik

2016-09-01

Childhood cancer has been associated with long-term risk of urinary tract diseases, but risk patterns remain to be comprehensively investigated. We analysed the lifetime risk of urinary tract diseases in survivors of childhood cancer in the Nordic countries. We identified 32,519 one-year survivors of childhood cancer diagnosed since the 1940s and 1950s in the five Nordic cancer registries and selected 211,156 population comparisons of a corresponding age, sex, and country of residence from the national population registries. To obtain information on all first-time hospitalizations for a urinary tract disease, we linked all study subjects to the national hospital registry of each country. Relative risks (RRs) and absolute excess risks (AERs) and associated 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for urinary tract diseases among cancer survivors were calculated with the appropriate morbidity rates among comparisons as reference. We observed 1645 childhood cancer survivors ever hospitalized for urinary tract disease yielding an RR of 2.5 (95% CI 2.4-2.7) and an AER of 229 (95% CI 210-248) per 100,000 person-years. The cumulative risk at age 60 was 22% in cancer survivors and 10% in comparisons. Infections of the urinary system and chronic kidney disease showed the highest excess risks, whereas survivors of neuroblastoma, hepatic and renal tumours experienced the highest RRs. Survivors of childhood cancer had an excess risk of urinary tract diseases and for most diseases the risk remained elevated throughout life. The highest risks occurred following therapy of childhood abdominal tumours. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[WebSurvCa: web-based estimation of death and survival probabilities in a cohort].

PubMed

Clèries, Ramon; Ameijide, Alberto; Buxó, Maria; Vilardell, Mireia; Martínez, José Miguel; Alarcón, Francisco; Cordero, David; Díez-Villanueva, Ana; Yasui, Yutaka; Marcos-Gragera, Rafael; Vilardell, Maria Loreto; Carulla, Marià; Galceran, Jaume; Izquierdo, Ángel; Moreno, Víctor; Borràs, Josep M

2018-01-19

Relative survival has been used as a measure of the temporal evolution of the excess risk of death of a cohort of patients diagnosed with cancer, taking into account the mortality of a reference population. Once the excess risk of death has been estimated, three probabilities can be computed at time T: 1) the crude probability of death associated with the cause of initial diagnosis (disease under study), 2) the crude probability of death associated with other causes, and 3) the probability of absolute survival in the cohort at time T. This paper presents the WebSurvCa application (https://shiny.snpstats.net/WebSurvCa/), whereby hospital-based and population-based cancer registries and registries of other diseases can estimate such probabilities in their cohorts by selecting the mortality of the relevant region (reference population). Copyright © 2017 SESPAS. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Population-Based Long-Term Cardiac-Specific Mortality Among 34 489 Five-Year Survivors of Childhood Cancer in Great Britain

PubMed Central

Fidler, Miranda M.; Reulen, Raoul C.; Henson, Katherine; Kelly, Julie; Cutter, David; Levitt, Gill A.; Frobisher, Clare; Winter, David L.

2017-01-01

Background: Increased risks of cardiac morbidity and mortality among childhood cancer survivors have been described previously. However, little is known about the very long-term risks of cardiac mortality and whether the risk has decreased among those more recently diagnosed. We investigated the risk of long-term cardiac mortality among survivors within the recently extended British Childhood Cancer Survivor Study. Methods: The British Childhood Cancer Survivor Study is a population-based cohort of 34 489 five-year survivors of childhood cancer diagnosed from 1940 to 2006 and followed up until February 28, 2014, and is the largest cohort to date to assess late cardiac mortality. Standardized mortality ratios and absolute excess risks were used to quantify cardiac mortality excess risk. Multivariable Poisson regression models were used to evaluate the simultaneous effect of risk factors. Likelihood ratio tests were used to test for heterogeneity and trends. Results: Overall, 181 cardiac deaths were observed, which was 3.4 times that expected. Survivors were 2.5 times and 5.9 times more at risk of ischemic heart disease and cardiomyopathy/heart failure death, respectively, than expected. Among those >60 years of age, subsequent primary neoplasms, cardiac disease, and other circulatory conditions accounted for 31%, 22%, and 15% of all excess deaths, respectively, providing clear focus for preventive interventions. The risk of both overall cardiac and cardiomyopathy/heart failure mortality was greatest among those diagnosed from 1980 to 1989. Specifically, for cardiomyopathy/heart failure deaths, survivors diagnosed from 1980 to 1989 had 28.9 times the excess number of deaths observed for survivors diagnosed either before 1970 or from 1990 on. Conclusions: Excess cardiac mortality among 5-year survivors of childhood cancer remains increased beyond 50 years of age and has clear messages in terms of prevention strategies. However, the fact that the risk was greatest in those diagnosed from 1980 to 1989 suggests that initiatives to reduce cardiotoxicity among those treated more recently may be having a measurable impact. PMID:28082386

Earnings Quality Measures and Excess Returns

PubMed Central

Perotti, Pietro; Wagenhofer, Alfred

2014-01-01

This paper examines how commonly used earnings quality measures fulfill a key objective of financial reporting, i.e., improving decision usefulness for investors. We propose a stock-price-based measure for assessing the quality of earnings quality measures. We predict that firms with higher earnings quality will be less mispriced than other firms. Mispricing is measured by the difference of the mean absolute excess returns of portfolios formed on high and low values of a measure. We examine persistence, predictability, two measures of smoothness, abnormal accruals, accruals quality, earnings response coefficient and value relevance. For a large sample of US non-financial firms over the period 1988–2007, we show that all measures except for smoothness are negatively associated with absolute excess returns, suggesting that smoothness is generally a favorable attribute of earnings. Accruals measures generate the largest spread in absolute excess returns, followed by smoothness and market-based measures. These results lend support to the widespread use of accruals measures as overall measures of earnings quality in the literature. PMID:26300582

Earnings Quality Measures and Excess Returns.

PubMed

Perotti, Pietro; Wagenhofer, Alfred

2014-06-01

This paper examines how commonly used earnings quality measures fulfill a key objective of financial reporting, i.e., improving decision usefulness for investors. We propose a stock-price-based measure for assessing the quality of earnings quality measures. We predict that firms with higher earnings quality will be less mispriced than other firms. Mispricing is measured by the difference of the mean absolute excess returns of portfolios formed on high and low values of a measure. We examine persistence, predictability, two measures of smoothness, abnormal accruals, accruals quality, earnings response coefficient and value relevance. For a large sample of US non-financial firms over the period 1988-2007, we show that all measures except for smoothness are negatively associated with absolute excess returns, suggesting that smoothness is generally a favorable attribute of earnings. Accruals measures generate the largest spread in absolute excess returns, followed by smoothness and market-based measures. These results lend support to the widespread use of accruals measures as overall measures of earnings quality in the literature.

Radiotherapy for ductal carcinoma in situ and risk of second non-breast cancers.

PubMed

Withrow, Diana R; Morton, Lindsay M; Curtis, Rochelle E; Schonfeld, Sara J; Berrington de González, Amy

2017-11-01

Radiotherapy for ductal carcinoma (DCIS) is increasing, but the risks and benefits of the treatment remain uncertain. We aimed to investigate the relationship between radiotherapy for DCIS and risk of second non-breast cancers in a large US cohort. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 52,556 women in 12 U.S. population-based cancer registries diagnosed with first primary DCIS during 1992-2008 at age 25-79 years. We estimated relative risks (RRs), attributable risks (AR), and excess absolute risks (EAR) of second non-breast cancers associated with radiotherapy using Poisson regression adjusted for age at year of diagnosis, grade, hormonal therapy (yes/no or unknown), and time since diagnosis. Approximately half of the women (46.3%) received radiotherapy. Radiotherapy was associated with an increased risk of all second non-breast cancers combined [RR 1.17, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.08-1.28] and all in-field, radiation-related second cancers combined (RR 1.37, 95% CI 1.15-1.63), driven by second lung cancers (RR 1.33, 95% CI 1.10-1.60) and non-CLL leukemia (RR 1.71, 95% CI 1.02-2.86). The estimated cumulative excess risk of all second non-breast cancers was 0.8% by 15 years after DCIS diagnosis. Radiotherapy was associated with an increased risk of second non-breast cancers. The specific excess of cancers at sites likely in/near the radiotherapy field suggests the findings are unlikely due exclusively to confounding, but further research into factors related to receipt of radiotherapy is needed. Our risk estimates can be used to help assess the balance of the risks and benefits of radiotherapy for DCIS and to inform clinical practice.

Long-term risks of subsequent primary neoplasms among survivors of childhood cancer.

PubMed

Reulen, Raoul C; Frobisher, Clare; Winter, David L; Kelly, Julie; Lancashire, Emma R; Stiller, Charles A; Pritchard-Jones, Kathryn; Jenkinson, Helen C; Hawkins, Michael M

2011-06-08

Survivors of childhood cancer are at excess risk of developing subsequent primary neoplasms but the long-term risks are uncertain. To investigate long-term risks of subsequent primary neoplasms in survivors of childhood cancer, to identify the types that contribute most to long-term excess risk, and to identify subgroups of survivors at substantially increased risk of particular subsequent primary neoplasms that may require specific interventions. British Childhood Cancer Survivor Study--a population-based cohort of 17,981 5-year survivors of childhood cancer diagnosed with cancer at younger than 15 years between 1940 and 1991 in Great Britain, followed up through December 2006. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs), absolute excess risks (AERs), and cumulative incidence of subsequent primary neoplasms. After a median follow-up time of 24.3 years (mean = 25.6 years), 1354 subsequent primary neoplasms were ascertained; the most frequently observed being central nervous system (n = 344), nonmelanoma skin cancer (n = 278), digestive (n = 105), genitourinary (n = 100), breast (n = 97), and bone (n = 94). The overall SIR was 4 times more than expected (SIR, 3.9; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.6-4.2; AER, 16.8 per 10,000 person-years). The AER at older than 40 years was highest for digestive and genitourinary subsequent primary neoplasms (AER, 5.9 [95% CI, 2.5-9.3]; and AER, 6.0 [95%CI, 2.3-9.6] per 10,000 person-years, respectively); 36% of the total AER was attributable to these 2 subsequent primary neoplasm sites. The cumulative incidence of colorectal cancer for survivors treated with direct abdominopelvic irradiation was 1.4% (95% CI, 0.7%-2.6%) by age 50 years, comparable with the 1.2% risk in individuals with at least 2 first-degree relatives affected by colorectal cancer. Among a cohort of British childhood cancer survivors, the greatest excess risk associated with subsequent primary neoplasms at older than 40 years was for digestive and genitourinary neoplasms.

SU-E-T-208: Incidence Cancer Risk From the Radiation Treatment for Acoustic Neuroma Patient

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, D; Chung, W; Shin, D

2014-06-01

Purpose: The present study aimed to compare the incidence risk of a secondary cancer from therapeutic doses in patients receiving intensitymodulated radiotherapy (IMRT), volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT), and stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS). Methods: Four acoustic neuroma patients were treated with IMRT, VMAT, or SRS. Their incidnece excess relative risk (ERR), excess absolute risk (EAR), and lifetime attributable risk (LAR) were estimated using the corresponding therapeutic doses measured at various organs by radio-photoluminescence glass dosimeters (RPLGD) placed inside a humanoid phantom. Results: When a prescription dose was delivered in the planning target volume of the 4 patients, the average organ equivalentmore » doses (OED) at the thyroid, lung, normal liver, colon, bladder, prostate (or ovary), and rectum were measured. The OED decreased as the distance from the primary beam increased. The thyroid received the highest OED compared to other organs. A LAR were estimated that more than 0.03% of AN patients would get radiation-induced cancer. Conclusion: The tyroid was highest radiation-induced cancer risk after radiation treatment for AN. We found that LAR can be increased by the transmitted dose from the primary beam. No modality-specific difference in radiation-induced cancer risk was observed in our study.« less

Projected cancer risks potentially related to past, current, and future practices in paediatric CT in the United Kingdom, 1990-2020.

PubMed

Journy, Neige M Y; Lee, Choonsik; Harbron, Richard W; McHugh, Kieran; Pearce, Mark S; Berrington de González, Amy

2017-01-03

To project risks of developing cancer and the number of cases potentially induced by past, current, and future computed tomography (CT) scans performed in the United Kingdom in individuals aged <20 years. Organ doses were estimated from surveys of individual scan parameters and CT protocols used in the United Kingdom. Frequencies of scans were estimated from the NHS Diagnostic Imaging Dataset. Excess lifetime risks (ELRs) of radiation-related cancer were calculated as cumulative lifetime risks, accounting for survival probabilities, using the RadRAT risk assessment tool. In 2000-2008, ELRs ranged from 0.3 to 1 per 1000 head scans and 1 to 5 per 1000 non-head scans. ELRs per scan were reduced by 50-70% in 2000-2008 compared with 1990-1995, subsequent to dose reduction over time. The 130 750 scans performed in 2015 in the United Kingdom were projected to induce 64 (90% uncertainty interval (UI): 38-113) future cancers. Current practices would lead to about 300 (90% UI: 230-680) future cancers induced by scans performed in 2016-2020. Absolute excess risks from single exposures would be low compared with background risks, but even small increases in annual CT rates over the next years would substantially increase the number of potential subsequent cancers.

Cancer incidence attributable to excess body weight in Alberta in 2012

PubMed Central

Brenner, Darren R.; Poirier, Abbey E.; Grundy, Anne; Khandwala, Farah; McFadden, Alison; Friedenreich, Christine M.

2017-01-01

Background: Excess body weight has been consistently associated with colorectal, breast, endometrial, esophageal, gall bladder, pancreatic and kidney cancers. The objective of this analysis was to estimate the proportion of total and site-specific cancers attributable to excess body weight in adults in Alberta in 2012. Methods: We estimated the proportions of attributable cancers using population attributable risk. Risk estimates were obtained from recent meta-analyses, and exposure prevalence estimates were obtained from the Canadian Community Health Survey. People with a body mass index of 25.00-29.99 kg/m2 and of 30 kg/m2 or more were categorized as overweight and obese, respectively. Results: About 14%-47% of men and 9%-35% of women in Alberta were classified as either overweight or obese; the proportion increased with increasing age for both sexes. We estimate that roughly 17% and 12% of obesity-related cancers among men and women, respectively, could be attributed to excess body weight in Alberta in 2012. The heaviest absolute burden in terms of number of cases was seen for breast cancer among women and for colorectal cancer among men. Overall, about 5% of all cancers in adults in Alberta in 2012 were estimated to be attributable to excess body weight in 2000-2003. Interpretation: Excess body weight contributes to a substantial proportion of cases of cancers associated with overweight and obesity annually in Alberta. Strategies to improve energy imbalance and reduce the proportion of obese and overweight Albertans may have a notable impact on cancer incidence in the future. PMID:28455439

Cancer incidence attributable to excess body weight in Alberta in 2012.

PubMed

Brenner, Darren R; Poirier, Abbey E; Grundy, Anne; Khandwala, Farah; McFadden, Alison; Friedenreich, Christine M

2017-04-28

Excess body weight has been consistently associated with colorectal, breast, endometrial, esophageal, gall bladder, pancreatic and kidney cancers. The objective of this analysis was to estimate the proportion of total and site-specific cancers attributable to excess body weight in adults in Alberta in 2012. We estimated the proportions of attributable cancers using population attributable risk. Risk estimates were obtained from recent meta-analyses, and exposure prevalence estimates were obtained from the Canadian Community Health Survey. People with a body mass index of 25.00-29.99 kg/m2 and of 30 kg/m2 or more were categorized as overweight and obese, respectively. About 14%-47% of men and 9%-35% of women in Alberta were classified as either overweight or obese; the proportion increased with increasing age for both sexes. We estimate that roughly 17% and 12% of obesity-related cancers among men and women, respectively, could be attributed to excess body weight in Alberta in 2012. The heaviest absolute burden in terms of number of cases was seen for breast cancer among women and for colorectal cancer among men. Overall, about 5% of all cancers in adults in Alberta in 2012 were estimated to be attributable to excess body weight in 2000-2003. Excess body weight contributes to a substantial proportion of cases of cancers associated with overweight and obesity annually in Alberta. Strategies to improve energy imbalance and reduce the proportion of obese and overweight Albertans may have a notable impact on cancer incidence in the future. Copyright 2017, Joule Inc. or its licensors.

Long term cause specific mortality among 34 489 five year survivors of childhood cancer in Great Britain: population based cohort study

PubMed Central

Fidler, Miranda M; Reulen, Raoul C; Winter, David L; Kelly, Julie; Jenkinson, Helen C; Skinner, Rod; Frobisher, Clare

2016-01-01

Objective To determine whether modern treatments for cancer are associated with a net increased or decreased risk of death from neoplastic and non-neoplastic causes among survivors of childhood cancer. Design Population based cohort study. Setting British Childhood Cancer Survivor Study. Participants Nationwide population based cohort of 34 489 five year survivors of childhood cancer with a diagnosis from 1940 to 2006 and followed up until 28 February 2014. Main outcome measures Cause specific standardised mortality ratios and absolute excess risks are reported. Multivariable Poisson regression models were utilised to evaluate the simultaneous effect of risk factors. Likelihood ratio tests were used to test for heterogeneity or trend. Results Overall, 4475 deaths were observed, which was 9.1 (95% confidence interval 8.9 to 9.4) times that expected in the general population, corresponding to 64.2 (95% confidence interval 62.1 to 66.3) excess deaths per 10 000 person years. The number of excess deaths from all causes declined among those treated more recently; those treated during 1990-2006 experienced 30% of the excess number of deaths experienced by those treated before 1970. The corresponding percentages for the decline in excess deaths from recurrence or progression and non-neoplastic causes were 30% and 60%, respectively. Among survivors aged 50-59 years, 41% and 22% of excess deaths were attributable to subsequent primary neoplasms and circulatory conditions, respectively, whereas the corresponding percentages among those aged 60 years or more were 31% and 37%. Conclusions The net effects of changes in cancer treatments, and surveillance and management for late effects, over the period 1940 to 2006 was to reduce the excess number of deaths from both recurrence or progression and non-neoplastic causes among those treated more recently. Among survivors aged 60 years or more, the excess number of deaths from circulatory causes exceeds the excess number of deaths from subsequent primary neoplasms. The important message for the evidence based surveillance aimed at preventing excess mortality and morbidity in survivors aged 60 years or more is that circulatory disease overtakes subsequent primary neoplasms as the leading cause of excess mortality. PMID:27586237

Joint Estimation of Cardiac Toxicity and Recurrence Risks After Comprehensive Nodal Photon Versus Proton Therapy for Breast Cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stick, Line B., E-mail: line.bjerregaard.stick@regionh.dk; Niels Bohr Institute, Faculty of Science, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen; Yu, Jen

Purpose: The study aims to perform joint estimation of the risk of recurrence caused by inadequate radiation dose coverage of lymph node targets and the risk of cardiac toxicity caused by radiation exposure to the heart. Delivered photon plans are compared with realistic proton plans, thereby providing evidence-based estimates of the heterogeneity of treatment effects in consecutive cases for the 2 radiation treatment modalities. Methods and Materials: Forty-one patients referred for postlumpectomy comprehensive nodal photon irradiation for left-sided breast cancer were included. Comparative proton plans were optimized by a spot scanning technique with single-field optimization from 2 en face beams.more » Cardiotoxicity risk was estimated with the model of Darby et al, and risk of recurrence following a compromise of lymph node coverage was estimated by a linear dose-response model fitted to the recurrence data from the recently published EORTC (European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer) 22922/10925 and NCIC-CTG (National Cancer Institute of Canada Clinical Trials Group) MA.20 randomized controlled trials. Results: Excess absolute risk of cardiac morbidity was small with photon therapy at an attained age of 80 years, with median values of 1.0% (range, 0.2%-2.9%) and 0.5% (range, 0.03%-1.0%) with and without cardiac risk factors, respectively, but even lower with proton therapy (0.13% [range, 0.02%-0.5%] and 0.06% [range, 0.004%-0.3%], respectively). The median estimated excess absolute risk of breast cancer recurrence after 10 years was 0.10% (range, 0.0%-0.9%) with photons and 0.02% (range, 0.0%-0.07%) with protons. The association between age of the patient and benefit from proton therapy was weak, almost non-existing (Spearman rank correlations of −0.15 and −0.30 with and without cardiac risk factors, respectively). Conclusions: Modern photon therapy yields limited risk of cardiac toxicity in most patients, but proton therapy can reduce the predicted risk of cardiac toxicity by up to 2.9% and the risk of breast cancer recurrence by 0.9% in individual patients. Predicted benefit correlates weakly with age. Combined assessment of the risk from cardiac exposure and inadequate target coverage is desirable for rational consideration of competing photon and proton therapy plans.« less

Projected cancer risks potentially related to past, current, and future practices in paediatric CT in the United Kingdom, 1990–2020

PubMed Central

Journy, Neige M Y; Lee, Choonsik; Harbron, Richard W; McHugh, Kieran; Pearce, Mark S; Berrington de González, Amy

2017-01-01

Background: To project risks of developing cancer and the number of cases potentially induced by past, current, and future computed tomography (CT) scans performed in the United Kingdom in individuals aged <20 years. Methods: Organ doses were estimated from surveys of individual scan parameters and CT protocols used in the United Kingdom. Frequencies of scans were estimated from the NHS Diagnostic Imaging Dataset. Excess lifetime risks (ELRs) of radiation-related cancer were calculated as cumulative lifetime risks, accounting for survival probabilities, using the RadRAT risk assessment tool. Results: In 2000–2008, ELRs ranged from 0.3 to 1 per 1000 head scans and 1 to 5 per 1000 non-head scans. ELRs per scan were reduced by 50–70% in 2000–2008 compared with 1990–1995, subsequent to dose reduction over time. The 130 750 scans performed in 2015 in the United Kingdom were projected to induce 64 (90% uncertainty interval (UI): 38–113) future cancers. Current practices would lead to about 300 (90% UI: 230–680) future cancers induced by scans performed in 2016–2020. Conclusions: Absolute excess risks from single exposures would be low compared with background risks, but even small increases in annual CT rates over the next years would substantially increase the number of potential subsequent cancers. PMID:27824812

A photometric study of the Orion OB 1 association. 2: Photometric analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Warren, W. H., Jr.; Hesser, J. E.

1976-01-01

The procedures adopted for analysis of photometric data in terms of color excesses, intrinsic color indexes, absolute visual magnitudes, and rotational-velocity effects are discussed in detail for Orion association B-, intermediate (I)-, and AF-type stars. The effects of the nebular environment and a comparison of various calibrations of Balmer-line and four-color indexes are considered for the determination of individual absolute magnitudes for B-type stars. When absolute magnitudes of stars in the region of the Orion Nebula are determined from the beta index, emission mechanisms appear to spuriously brighten them. A detailed comparison of absolute magnitudes derived from Balmer-line indexes and MK spectral-type calibrations is presented. The data are also examined with regard to the effects of polarization and infrared excesses. The results suggest a complex combination of intracluster and circumstellar origins for these processes.

Radiation dose and cataract surgery incidence in atomic bomb survivors, 1986-2005.

PubMed

Neriishi, Kazuo; Nakashima, Eiji; Akahoshi, Masazumi; Hida, Ayumi; Grant, Eric J; Masunari, Naomi; Funamoto, Sachiyo; Minamoto, Atsushi; Fujiwara, Saeko; Shore, Roy E

2012-10-01

To examine the incidence of clinically important cataracts in relation to lens radiation doses between 0 and approximately 3 Gy to address risks at relatively low brief doses. Informed consent was obtained, and human subjects procedures were approved by the ethical committee at the Radiation Effects Research Foundation. Cataract surgery incidence was documented for 6066 atomic bomb survivors during 1986-2005. Sixteen risk factors for cataract, such as smoking, hypertension, and corticosteroid use, were not confounders of the radiation effect on the basis of Cox regression analysis. Radiation dose-response analyses were performed for cataract surgery incidence by using Poisson regression analysis, adjusting for demographic variables and diabetes mellitus, and results were expressed as the excess relative risk (ERR) and the excess absolute risk (EAR) (ie, measures of how much radiation multiplies [ERR] or adds to [EAR] the risk in the unexposed group). Of 6066 atomic bomb survivors, 1028 underwent a first cataract surgery during 1986-2005. The estimated threshold dose was 0.50 Gy (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.10 Gy, 0.95 Gy) for the ERR model and 0.45 Gy (95% CI: 0.10 Gy, 1.05 Gy) for the EAR model. A linear-quadratic test for upward curvature did not show a significant quadratic effect for either the ERR or EAR model. The linear ERR model for a 70-year-old individual, exposed at age 20 years, showed a 0.32 (95% CI: 0.09, 0.53) [corrected] excess risk at 1 Gy. The ERR was highest for those who were young at exposure. These data indicate a radiation effect for vision-impairing cataracts at doses less than 1 Gy. The evidence suggests that dose standards for protection of the eye from brief radiation exposures should be 0.5 Gy or less. © RSNA, 2012.

Alcohol and mortality in Russia: prospective observational study of 151 000 adults

PubMed Central

Zaridze, David; Lewington, Sarah; Boroda, Alexander; Scélo, Ghislaine; Karpov, Rostislav; Lazarev, Alexander; Konobeevskaya, Irina; Igitov, Vladimir; Terechova, Tatiyana; Boffetta, Paolo; Sherliker, Paul; Kong, Xiangling; Whitlock, Gary; Boreham, Jillian; Brennan, Paul; Peto, Richard

2014-01-01

Summary Background Russian adults have extraordinarily high rates of premature death. Retrospective enquiries to the families of about 50 000 deceased Russians had found excess vodka use among those dying from external causes (accident, suicide, violence) and eight particular disease groupings. We now seek prospective evidence of these associations. Methods In three Russian cities (Barnaul, Byisk, and Tomsk), we interviewed 200 000 adults during 1999–2008 (with 12 000 re-interviewed some years later) and followed them until 2010 for cause-specific mortality. In 151 000 with no previous disease and some follow-up at ages 35–74 years, Poisson regression (adjusted for age at risk, amount smoked, education, and city) was used to calculate the relative risks associating vodka consumption with mortality. We have combined these relative risks with age-specific death rates to get 20-year absolute risks. Findings Among 57 361 male smokers with no previous disease, the estimated 20-year risks of death at ages 35–54 years were 16% (95% CI 15–17) for those who reported consuming less than a bottle of vodka per week at baseline, 20% (18–22) for those consuming 1–2·9 bottles per week, and 35% (31–39) for those consuming three or more bottles per week; trend p<0·0001. The corresponding risks of death at ages 55–74 years were 50% (48–52) for those who reported consuming less than a bottle of vodka per week at baseline, 54% (51–57) for those consuming 1–2·9 bottles per week, and 64% (59–69) for those consuming three or more bottles per week; trend p<0·0001. In both age ranges most of the excess mortality in heavier drinkers was from external causes or the eight disease groupings strongly associated with alcohol in the retrospective enquiries. Self-reported drinking fluctuated; of the men who reported drinking three or more bottles of vodka per week who were reinterviewed a few years later, about half (185 of 321) then reported drinking less than one bottle per week. Such fluctuations must have substantially attenuated the apparent hazards of heavy drinking in this study, yet self-reported vodka use at baseline still strongly predicted risk. Among male non-smokers and among females, self-reported heavy drinking was uncommon, but seemed to involve similar absolute excess risks. Interpretation This large prospective study strongly reinforces other evidence that vodka is a major cause of the high risk of premature death in Russian adults. Funding UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, European Union, WHO International Agency for Research on Cancer. PMID:24486187

Variance computations for functional of absolute risk estimates.

PubMed

Pfeiffer, R M; Petracci, E

2011-07-01

We present a simple influence function based approach to compute the variances of estimates of absolute risk and functions of absolute risk. We apply this approach to criteria that assess the impact of changes in the risk factor distribution on absolute risk for an individual and at the population level. As an illustration we use an absolute risk prediction model for breast cancer that includes modifiable risk factors in addition to standard breast cancer risk factors. Influence function based variance estimates for absolute risk and the criteria are compared to bootstrap variance estimates.

Variance computations for functional of absolute risk estimates

PubMed Central

Pfeiffer, R.M.; Petracci, E.

2011-01-01

We present a simple influence function based approach to compute the variances of estimates of absolute risk and functions of absolute risk. We apply this approach to criteria that assess the impact of changes in the risk factor distribution on absolute risk for an individual and at the population level. As an illustration we use an absolute risk prediction model for breast cancer that includes modifiable risk factors in addition to standard breast cancer risk factors. Influence function based variance estimates for absolute risk and the criteria are compared to bootstrap variance estimates. PMID:21643476

Risk of breast cancer following low-dose radiation exposure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boice, J.D. Jr.; Land, C.E.; Shore, R.E.

1979-06-01

Risk of breast cancer following radiation exposure was studied, based on surveys of tuberculosis patients who had multiple fluoroscopic examinations of the chest, mastitis patients given radiotherapy, and atomic bomb survivors. Analysis suggests that the risk is greatest for persons exposed as adolescents, although exposure at all ages carries some risk. The dose-response relationship was consistent with linearity in all studies. Direct evidence of radiation risk at doses under 0.5 Gy (50 rad) is apparent among A-bomb survivors. Fractionation does not appear to diminish risk, nor does time since exposure (even after 45 years of observation). The interval between exposuremore » and the clinical appearance of radiogenic breast cancer may be mediated by hormonal or other age-related factors but is unrelated to dose. Age-specific absolute risk estimtes for all studies are remarkably similar. The best estimate of risk among American women exposed after age 20 is 6.6 excess cancers/10/sup 4/ WY-Gy (10/sup 6/ WY-rad).« less

Risk-taking behavior in the presence of nonconvex asset dynamics.

PubMed

Lybbert, Travis J; Barrett, Christopher B

2011-01-01

The growing literature on poverty traps emphasizes the links between multiple equilibria and risk avoidance. However, multiple equilibria may also foster risk-taking behavior by some poor people. We illustrate this idea with a simple analytical model in which people with different wealth and ability endowments make investment and risky activity choices in the presence of known nonconvex asset dynamics. This model underscores a crucial distinction between familiar static concepts of risk aversion and forward-looking dynamic risk responses to nonconvex asset dynamics. Even when unobservable preferences exhibit decreasing absolute risk aversion, observed behavior may suggest that risk aversion actually increases with wealth near perceived dynamic asset thresholds. Although high ability individuals are not immune from poverty traps, they can leverage their capital endowments more effectively than lower ability types and are therefore less likely to take seemingly excessive risks. In general, linkages between behavioral responses and wealth dynamics often seem to run in both directions. Both theoretical and empirical poverty trap research could benefit from making this two-way linkage more explicit.

A review of nasal cancer in furniture manufacturing and woodworking in North Carolina, the United States, and other countries.

PubMed

Imbus, H R; Dyson, W L

1987-09-01

Nasal adenocarcinoma in the High Wycombe furniture industry of England during 1956-1965 had an annual incidence of 500 to 1,000 times greater than that of the general population. Excesses of nasal cancer have also been described in France, Australia, Denmark, Finland, Italy, and Holland. Interestingly, one limited study in Canada revealed no excess, whereas a more recent one showed a slight excess. In contrast to the strikingly large excesses of nasal adenocarcinoma in other countries, there has never been any evidence of similarly large excesses in the US woodworking and furniture industry. Modern manufacturing conditions may not present the same degree of risk of developing nasal cancer as was present in the English furniture manufacturing industry. The incidence of nasal cancer associated with furniture manufacturing in the United States is examined in considerable detail in North Carolina, the leading furniture manufacturing state. Furniture manufacturing in the state began around 1890 and has grown steadily since. Utilizing statistics available from the North Carolina Department of Vital Statistics, the absolute mortality of nasal cancer in North Carolina was calculated from 1964 to 1977. The average mortality was approximately 3.5 times greater in the furniture manufacturing industry than in the general population.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Communicating cardiovascular disease risk: an interview study of General Practitioners' use of absolute risk within tailored communication strategies.

PubMed

Bonner, Carissa; Jansen, Jesse; McKinn, Shannon; Irwig, Les; Doust, Jenny; Glasziou, Paul; McCaffery, Kirsten

2014-05-29

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention guidelines encourage assessment of absolute CVD risk - the probability of a CVD event within a fixed time period, based on the most predictive risk factors. However, few General Practitioners (GPs) use absolute CVD risk consistently, and communication difficulties have been identified as a barrier to changing practice. This study aimed to explore GPs' descriptions of their CVD risk communication strategies, including the role of absolute risk. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with a purposive sample of 25 GPs in New South Wales, Australia. Transcribed audio-recordings were thematically coded, using the Framework Analysis method to ensure rigour. GPs used absolute CVD risk within three different communication strategies: 'positive', 'scare tactic', and 'indirect'. A 'positive' strategy, which aimed to reassure and motivate, was used for patients with low risk, determination to change lifestyle, and some concern about CVD risk. Absolute risk was used to show how they could reduce risk. A 'scare tactic' strategy was used for patients with high risk, lack of motivation, and a dismissive attitude. Absolute risk was used to 'scare' them into taking action. An 'indirect' strategy, where CVD risk was not the main focus, was used for patients with low risk but some lifestyle risk factors, high anxiety, high resistance to change, or difficulty understanding probabilities. Non-quantitative absolute risk formats were found to be helpful in these situations. This study demonstrated how GPs use three different communication strategies to address the issue of CVD risk, depending on their perception of patient risk, motivation and anxiety. Absolute risk played a different role within each strategy. Providing GPs with alternative ways of explaining absolute risk, in order to achieve different communication aims, may improve their use of absolute CVD risk assessment in practice.

Feasibility of Valve-in-Valve Procedure for Degenerated St. Jude Medical Trifecta Bioprosthesis.

PubMed

Verhoye, Jean-philippe; Harmouche, Majid; Soulami, Reda Belhaj; Thebault, Christophe; Boulmier, Dominique; Leguerrier, Alain; Anselmi, Amedeo

2015-07-01

The valve-in-valve (ViV) procedure is an option for patients with symptomatic structural degeneration of a bioprosthesis and excessive reoperative risk. The risk of coronary obstruction appears to be increased if ViV is performed for certain pericardial prostheses in which the leaflets are mounted outside the stent posts. Herein is described a successful ViV for a degenerated Trifecta aortic bioprosthesis, and the technical considerations for performing a ViV procedure within such types of prosthesis are considered. Emphasis is placed on the importance of preoperative investigations (computed tomography scan-based measurements of coronary ostial height and of sinus of Valsalva diameters), and on the precise deployment of the valve (transapical approach with transesophageal echocardiography control) to minimize the risk of major complications. The presence of a failing Trifecta bioprosthesis should not be considered an absolute contraindication to ViV on the basis of the risk of coronary obstruction.

Estimating the Risks of Breast Cancer Radiotherapy: Evidence From Modern Radiation Doses to the Lungs and Heart and From Previous Randomized Trials

PubMed Central

Correa, Candace; Duane, Frances K.; Aznar, Marianne C.; Anderson, Stewart J.; Bergh, Jonas; Dodwell, David; Ewertz, Marianne; Gray, Richard; Jagsi, Reshma; Pierce, Lori; Pritchard, Kathleen I.; Swain, Sandra; Wang, Zhe; Wang, Yaochen; Whelan, Tim; Peto, Richard; McGale, Paul

2017-01-01

Purpose Radiotherapy reduces the absolute risk of breast cancer mortality by a few percentage points in suitable women but can cause a second cancer or heart disease decades later. We estimated the absolute long-term risks of modern breast cancer radiotherapy. Methods First, a systematic literature review was performed of lung and heart doses in breast cancer regimens published during 2010 to 2015. Second, individual patient data meta-analyses of 40,781 women randomly assigned to breast cancer radiotherapy versus no radiotherapy in 75 trials yielded rate ratios (RRs) for second primary cancers and cause-specific mortality and excess RRs (ERRs) per Gy for incident lung cancer and cardiac mortality. Smoking status was unavailable. Third, the lung or heart ERRs per Gy in the trials and the 2010 to 2015 doses were combined and applied to current smoker and nonsmoker lung cancer and cardiac mortality rates in population-based data. Results Average doses from 647 regimens published during 2010 to 2015 were 5.7 Gy for whole lung and 4.4 Gy for whole heart. The median year of irradiation was 2010 (interquartile range [IQR], 2008 to 2011). Meta-analyses yielded lung cancer incidence ≥ 10 years after radiotherapy RR of 2.10 (95% CI, 1.48 to 2.98; P < .001) on the basis of 134 cancers, indicating 0.11 (95% CI, 0.05 to 0.20) ERR per Gy whole-lung dose. For cardiac mortality, RR was 1.30 (95% CI, 1.15 to 1.46; P < .001) on the basis of 1,253 cardiac deaths. Detailed analyses indicated 0.04 (95% CI, 0.02 to 0.06) ERR per Gy whole-heart dose. Estimated absolute risks from modern radiotherapy were as follows: lung cancer, approximately 4% for long-term continuing smokers and 0.3% for nonsmokers; and cardiac mortality, approximately 1% for smokers and 0.3% for nonsmokers. Conclusion For long-term smokers, the absolute risks of modern radiotherapy may outweigh the benefits, yet for most nonsmokers (and ex-smokers), the benefits of radiotherapy far outweigh the risks. Hence, smoking can determine the net effect of radiotherapy on mortality, but smoking cessation substantially reduces radiotherapy risk. PMID:28319436

Estimating the Risks of Breast Cancer Radiotherapy: Evidence From Modern Radiation Doses to the Lungs and Heart and From Previous Randomized Trials.

PubMed

Taylor, Carolyn; Correa, Candace; Duane, Frances K; Aznar, Marianne C; Anderson, Stewart J; Bergh, Jonas; Dodwell, David; Ewertz, Marianne; Gray, Richard; Jagsi, Reshma; Pierce, Lori; Pritchard, Kathleen I; Swain, Sandra; Wang, Zhe; Wang, Yaochen; Whelan, Tim; Peto, Richard; McGale, Paul

2017-05-20

Purpose Radiotherapy reduces the absolute risk of breast cancer mortality by a few percentage points in suitable women but can cause a second cancer or heart disease decades later. We estimated the absolute long-term risks of modern breast cancer radiotherapy. Methods First, a systematic literature review was performed of lung and heart doses in breast cancer regimens published during 2010 to 2015. Second, individual patient data meta-analyses of 40,781 women randomly assigned to breast cancer radiotherapy versus no radiotherapy in 75 trials yielded rate ratios (RRs) for second primary cancers and cause-specific mortality and excess RRs (ERRs) per Gy for incident lung cancer and cardiac mortality. Smoking status was unavailable. Third, the lung or heart ERRs per Gy in the trials and the 2010 to 2015 doses were combined and applied to current smoker and nonsmoker lung cancer and cardiac mortality rates in population-based data. Results Average doses from 647 regimens published during 2010 to 2015 were 5.7 Gy for whole lung and 4.4 Gy for whole heart. The median year of irradiation was 2010 (interquartile range [IQR], 2008 to 2011). Meta-analyses yielded lung cancer incidence ≥ 10 years after radiotherapy RR of 2.10 (95% CI, 1.48 to 2.98; P < .001) on the basis of 134 cancers, indicating 0.11 (95% CI, 0.05 to 0.20) ERR per Gy whole-lung dose. For cardiac mortality, RR was 1.30 (95% CI, 1.15 to 1.46; P < .001) on the basis of 1,253 cardiac deaths. Detailed analyses indicated 0.04 (95% CI, 0.02 to 0.06) ERR per Gy whole-heart dose. Estimated absolute risks from modern radiotherapy were as follows: lung cancer, approximately 4% for long-term continuing smokers and 0.3% for nonsmokers; and cardiac mortality, approximately 1% for smokers and 0.3% for nonsmokers. Conclusion For long-term smokers, the absolute risks of modern radiotherapy may outweigh the benefits, yet for most nonsmokers (and ex-smokers), the benefits of radiotherapy far outweigh the risks. Hence, smoking can determine the net effect of radiotherapy on mortality, but smoking cessation substantially reduces radiotherapy risk.

Computationally Aided Absolute Stereochemical Determination of Enantioenriched Amines.

PubMed

Zhang, Jun; Gholami, Hadi; Ding, Xinliang; Chun, Minji; Vasileiou, Chrysoula; Nehira, Tatsuo; Borhan, Babak

2017-03-17

A simple and efficient protocol for sensing the absolute stereochemistry and enantiomeric excess of chiral monoamines is reported. Preparation of the sample requires a single-step reaction of the 1,1'-(bromomethylene)dinaphthalene (BDN) with the chiral amine. Analysis of the exciton coupled circular dichroism generated from the BDN-derivatized chiral amine sample, along with comparison to conformational analysis performed computationally, yields the absolute stereochemistry of the parent chiral monoamine.

Communicating cardiovascular disease risk: an interview study of General Practitioners’ use of absolute risk within tailored communication strategies

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention guidelines encourage assessment of absolute CVD risk - the probability of a CVD event within a fixed time period, based on the most predictive risk factors. However, few General Practitioners (GPs) use absolute CVD risk consistently, and communication difficulties have been identified as a barrier to changing practice. This study aimed to explore GPs’ descriptions of their CVD risk communication strategies, including the role of absolute risk. Methods Semi-structured interviews were conducted with a purposive sample of 25 GPs in New South Wales, Australia. Transcribed audio-recordings were thematically coded, using the Framework Analysis method to ensure rigour. Results GPs used absolute CVD risk within three different communication strategies: ‘positive’, ‘scare tactic’, and ‘indirect’. A ‘positive’ strategy, which aimed to reassure and motivate, was used for patients with low risk, determination to change lifestyle, and some concern about CVD risk. Absolute risk was used to show how they could reduce risk. A ‘scare tactic’ strategy was used for patients with high risk, lack of motivation, and a dismissive attitude. Absolute risk was used to ‘scare’ them into taking action. An ‘indirect’ strategy, where CVD risk was not the main focus, was used for patients with low risk but some lifestyle risk factors, high anxiety, high resistance to change, or difficulty understanding probabilities. Non-quantitative absolute risk formats were found to be helpful in these situations. Conclusions This study demonstrated how GPs use three different communication strategies to address the issue of CVD risk, depending on their perception of patient risk, motivation and anxiety. Absolute risk played a different role within each strategy. Providing GPs with alternative ways of explaining absolute risk, in order to achieve different communication aims, may improve their use of absolute CVD risk assessment in practice. PMID:24885409

1H MRS Assessment of Hepatic Fat Content: Comparison Between Normal- and Excess-weight Children and Adolescents.

PubMed

Chabanova, Elizaveta; Fonvig, Cilius Esmann; Bøjsøe, Christine; Holm, Jens-Christian; Thomsen, Henrik S

2017-08-01

The purpose of the present study was to obtain a cutoff value of liver fat content for the diagnosis of hepatic steatosis by comparing magnetic resonance (MR) spectroscopy results in children and adolescents with normal and excess weight. The study included 420 children and adolescents (91 normal-weight, 99 overweight, and 230 obese) 8-18 years of age. Proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy was performed with a 3T MR system using point resolved spectroscopy sequence with series echo times. The mean absolute mass concentration of liver fat was obtained: 0.5 ± 0.04% in normal-weight boys; 0.5 ± 0.03% in normal-weight girls; 0.9 ± 0.16% in boys with overweight; 1.1 ± 0.24% in girls with overweight; 1.7 ± 0.24% in boys with obesity; and 1.4 ± 0.21% in girls with obesity. The cutoff value of absolute mass concentration of liver fat for hepatic steatosis was found to be 1.5%. Based on this cutoff value, hepatic steatosis was diagnosed in 16% of boys with overweight, 11% of girls with overweight, 32% of boys with obesity, and 27% of girls with obesity. Proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy was successfully applied to obtain the cutoff value of absolute mass concentration of liver fat for the diagnosis of hepatic steatosis in children and adolescents. Children and adolescents with obesity have higher risk of hepatic steatosis than their peers with overweight. Copyright © 2017 The Association of University Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multivariate spatial models of excess crash frequency at area level: case of Costa Rica.

PubMed

Aguero-Valverde, Jonathan

2013-10-01

Recently, areal models of crash frequency have being used in the analysis of various area-wide factors affecting road crashes. On the other hand, disease mapping methods are commonly used in epidemiology to assess the relative risk of the population at different spatial units. A natural next step is to combine these two approaches to estimate the excess crash frequency at area level as a measure of absolute crash risk. Furthermore, multivariate spatial models of crash severity are explored in order to account for both frequency and severity of crashes and control for the spatial correlation frequently found in crash data. This paper aims to extent the concept of safety performance functions to be used in areal models of crash frequency. A multivariate spatial model is used for that purpose and compared to its univariate counterpart. Full Bayes hierarchical approach is used to estimate the models of crash frequency at canton level for Costa Rica. An intrinsic multivariate conditional autoregressive model is used for modeling spatial random effects. The results show that the multivariate spatial model performs better than its univariate counterpart in terms of the penalized goodness-of-fit measure Deviance Information Criteria. Additionally, the effects of the spatial smoothing due to the multivariate spatial random effects are evident in the estimation of excess equivalent property damage only crashes. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimates of the relative and absolute diurnal contributions of fasting and post-prandial plasma glucose over a range of hyperglycaemia in type 2 diabetes.

PubMed

Peter, R; Dunseath, G; Luzio, S D; Owens, D R

2013-09-01

To re-examine the relative and absolute contributions of fasting/pre-prandial glucose (FPG) and post-prandial glucose (PPG) to 24-h hyperglycaemia and HbA1c respectively in non-insulin treated subjects with type 2 diabetes (T2DM). A total of 52 T2DM subjects (37 men) had daytime 12h plasma glucose (PG) profiles determined in response to three serial identical test meals commencing at 08 00h with pre-prandial and frequent post-prandial blood samples collected. The overnight PG profile was derived by projecting the 20 00h glucose concentration to the pre-breakfast value at 08 00h. PPG exposure was calculated above fasting/pre-prandial value for each meal. Excess hyperglycaemia was calculated based on a PG>5.5mmol/L with fasting hyperglycaemia being the difference between the two measurements. The subjects were divided into five groups according to the HbA1c (Group 1<7.0%; Group 2: 7.0-<7.5; Group 3: 7.5-<8.0%; Group 4: 8.0-<9.0%; Group 5:≥9.0%). The 24h relative contribution of PPG exposure and fasting hyperglycaemia to excess hyperglycaemia and the absolute contribution of PPG and fasting hyperglycaemia to excess HbA1c (HbA1c - 5.1%) was calculated. With deteriorating glycaemia, the relative contribution of PPG exposure decreased across the groups from 43.5% (HbA1c<7.0%) to 17.8% (HbA1c≥9.0%), whilst the contributions of fasting hyperglycaemia increased from 56.5% to 82.2% (P=0.004), respectively. The absolute contributions of PPG to excess HbA1c was 0.7%, which remained relatively stable across the spectrum of HbA1c, whilst fasting hyperglycaemia increased significantly from groups 1 to 5 (P<0.001). Fasting hyperglycaemia contributes substantially in all groups, increasing as HbA1c deteriorates. The absolute contribution of PPG to excess HbA1c did not vary across the range of HbA1c, representing a significant relative contribution even in well-controlled subjects with a HbA1c<7.0%. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

Familial Risk and Heritability of Cancer Among Twins in Nordic Countries

PubMed Central

Mucci, Lorelei A.; Hjelmborg, Jacob B.; Harris, Jennifer R.; Czene, Kamila; Havelick, David J.; Scheike, Thomas; Graff, Rebecca E.; Holst, Klaus; Möller, Sören; Unger, Robert H.; McIntosh, Christina; Nuttall, Elizabeth; Brandt, Ingunn; Penney, Kathryn L.; Hartman, Mikael; Kraft, Peter; Parmigiani, Giovanni; Christensen, Kaare; Koskenvuo, Markku; Holm, Niels V.; Heikkilä, Kauko; Pukkala, Eero; Skytthe, Axel; Adami, Hans-Olov; Kaprio, Jaakko

2017-01-01

Importance Estimates of familial cancer risk from population-based studies are essential components of cancer risk prediction. Objective To estimate familial risk and heritability of cancer types in a large twin cohort. Design, Setting, and Participants Prospective study of 80 309 monozygotic and 123 382 same-sex dizygotic twin individuals (N = 203 691) within the population-based registers of Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden. Twins were followed up a median of 32 years between 1943 and 2010. There were 50 990 individuals who died of any cause, and 3804 who emigrated and were lost to follow-up. Exposures Shared environmental and heritable risk factors among pairs of twins. Main Outcomes and Measures The main outcome was incident cancer. Time-to-event analyses were used to estimate familial risk (risk of cancer in an individual given a twin's development of cancer) and heritability (proportion of variance in cancer risk due to interindividual genetic differences) with follow-up via cancer registries. Statistical models adjusted for age and follow-up time, and accounted for censoring and competing risk of death. Results A total of 27 156 incident cancers were diagnosed in 23 980 individuals, translating to a cumulative incidence of 32%. Cancer was diagnosed in both twins among 1383 monozygotic (2766 individuals) and 1933 dizygotic (2866 individuals) pairs. Of these, 38% of monozygotic and 26% of dizygotic pairs were diagnosed with the same cancer type. There was an excess cancer risk in twins whose co-twin was diagnosed with cancer, with estimated cumulative risks that were an absolute 5% (95% CI, 4%-6%) higher in dizygotic (37%; 95% CI, 36%-38%) and an absolute 14% (95% CI, 12%-16%) higher in monozygotic twins (46%; 95% CI, 44%-48%) whose twin also developed cancer compared with the cumulative risk in the overall cohort (32%). For most cancer types, there were significant familial risks and the cumulative risks were higher in monozygotic than dizygotic twins. Heritability of cancer overall was 33% (95% CI, 30%-37%). Significant heritability was observed for the cancer types of skin melanoma (58%; 95% CI, 43%-73%), prostate (57%; 95% CI, 51%-63%), nonmelanoma skin (43%; 95% CI, 26%-59%), ovary (39%; 95% CI, 23%-55%), kidney (38%; 95% CI, 21%-55%), breast (31%; 95% CI, 11%-51%), and corpus uteri (27%; 95% CI, 11%-43%). Conclusions and Relevance In this long-term follow-up study among Nordic twins, there was significant excess familial risk for cancer overall and for specific types of cancer, including prostate, melanoma, breast, ovary, and uterus. This information about hereditary risks of cancers may be helpful in patient education and cancer risk counseling. PMID:26746459

Sickness absence among Finnish special and general education teachers.

PubMed

Ervasti, J; Kivimäki, M; Pentti, J; Suominen, S; Vahtera, J; Virtanen, M

2011-10-01

Although teaching is considered a high-stress profession, research on stress-related outcomes among teachers, such as absence from work due to illness (i.e. sickness absence), remains scarce. It is possible that teachers are not a homogeneous group but include subgroups with particularly high risk of sickness absence, such as special education teachers. To examine differences in sickness absence rates between special and general education teachers in a large cohort of 2291 Finnish lower secondary school teachers. Register data on teachers' job titles, sociodemographic characteristics and sickness absence were obtained from 10 municipal employers' registers. Indices of sickness absence included rates of short-term (1-3 days) and long-term (>3 days) absence spells during 2003-05. With multi-level models adjusted for individual- and school-level covariates, we found that although the absolute level of sickness absence was higher among women than among men, male special education teachers were at a 1.36-fold (95% CI: 1.15-1.61) increased risk of short-term and a 1.33-fold (95% CI: 1.01-1.76) increased risk of long-term sickness absence compared with male teachers in general education. Among women, there were no differences in sickness absence between special and general education teachers. Compared to male teachers in general education, male teachers in special education appear to have an excess risk of absence from work due to illness. Future studies should examine the causes for this excess risk and determine the need for preventive interventions.

Risk of Salivary Gland Cancer After Childhood Cancer: A Report From the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boukheris, Houda; Stovall, Marilyn; Gilbert, Ethel S.

Purpose: To evaluate effects of radiation therapy, chemotherapy, cigarette smoking, and alcohol consumption on the risk of second primary salivary gland cancer (SGC) in the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (CCSS). Methods and Materials: Standardized incidence ratios (SIR) and excess absolute risks (EAR) of SGC in the CCSS were calculated using incidence rates from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results population-based cancer registries. Radiation dose to the salivary glands was estimated based on medical records. Poisson regression was used to assess risks with respect to radiation dose, chemotherapy, smoking, and alcohol consumption. Results: During the time period of the study, 23 casesmore » of SGC were diagnosed among 14,135 childhood cancer survivors. The mean age at diagnosis of the first primary cancer was 8.3 years, and the mean age at SGC diagnosis was 24.8 years. The incidence of SGC was 39-fold higher in the cohort than in the general population (SIR = 39.4; 95% CI = 25.4-57.8). The EAR was 9.8 per 100,000 person-years. Risk increased linearly with radiation dose (excess relative risk = 0.36/Gy; 95% CI = 0.06-2.5) and remained elevated after 20 years. There was no significant trend of increasing risk with increasing dose of chemotherapeutic agents, pack-years of cigarette smoking, or alcohol intake. Conclusion: Although the cumulative incidence of SGC was low, childhood cancer survivors treated with radiation experienced significantly increased risk for at least 2 decades after exposure, and risk was positively associated with radiation dose. Results underscore the importance of long-term follow up of childhood cancer survivors for the development of new malignancies.« less

Bleeding Risks With Aspirin Use for Primary Prevention in Adults: A Systematic Review for the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force.

PubMed

Whitlock, Evelyn P; Burda, Brittany U; Williams, Selvi B; Guirguis-Blake, Janelle M; Evans, Corinne V

2016-06-21

The balance between potential aspirin-related risks and benefits is critical in primary prevention. To evaluate the risk for serious bleeding with regular aspirin use in cardiovascular disease (CVD) primary prevention. PubMed, MEDLINE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (2010 through 6 January 2015), and relevant references from other reviews. Randomized, controlled trials; cohort studies; and meta-analyses comparing aspirin with placebo or no treatment to prevent CVD or cancer in adults. One investigator abstracted data, another checked for accuracy, and 2 assessed study quality. In CVD primary prevention studies, very-low-dose aspirin use (≤100 mg daily or every other day) increased major gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding risk by 58% (odds ratio [OR], 1.58 [95% CI, 1.29 to 1.95]) and hemorrhagic stroke risk by 27% (OR, 1.27 [CI, 0.96 to 1.68]). Projected excess bleeding events with aspirin depend on baseline assumptions. Estimated excess major bleeding events were 1.39 (CI, 0.70 to 2.28) for GI bleeding and 0.32 (CI, -0.05 to 0.82) for hemorrhagic stroke per 1000 person-years of aspirin exposure using baseline bleeding rates from a community-based observational sample. Such events could be greater among older persons, men, and those with CVD risk factors that also increase bleeding risk. Power to detect effects on hemorrhagic stroke was limited. Harms other than serious bleeding were not examined. Consideration of the safety of primary prevention with aspirin requires an individualized assessment of aspirin's effects on bleeding risks and expected benefits because absolute bleeding risk may vary considerably by patient. Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality.

Adult life after childhood cancer in Scandinavia: diabetes mellitus following treatment for cancer in childhood.

PubMed

Holmqvist, Anna Sällfors; Olsen, Jørgen H; Andersen, Klaus Kaae; de Fine Licht, Sofie; Hjorth, Lars; Garwicz, Stanislaw; Moëll, Christian; Anderson, Harald; Wesenberg, Finn; Tryggvadottir, Laufey; Malila, Nea; Boice, John D; Hasle, Henrik; Winther, Jeanette Falck

2014-04-01

An increased risk for diabetes mellitus (DM) adds significantly to the burden of late complications in childhood cancer survivors. Complications of DM may be prevented by using appropriate screening. It is, therefore, important to better characterise the reported increased risk for DM in a large population-based setting. From the national cancer registries of the five Nordic countries, a cohort of 32,903 1-year survivors of cancer diagnosed before the age of 20 between start of cancer registration in the 1940s and 1950s through 2008 was identified; 212,393 comparison subjects of the same age, gender and country were selected from national population registers. Study subjects were linked to the national hospital registers. Absolute excess risks (AERs) and standardised hospitalisation rate ratios (SHRRs) were calculated. DM was diagnosed in 496 childhood cancer survivors, yielding an overall SHRR of 1.6 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.5-1.8) and an AER of 43 per 100,000 person-years, increasing from approximately 20 extra cases of DM in ages 0-19 to more than 100 extra cases per 100,000 person-years in ages > or =50. The relative risks for DM were significantly increased after Wilms' tumour (SHRR, 2.9), leukaemia (2.0), CNS neoplasms (1.8), germ-cell neoplasms (1.7), malignant bone tumours (1.7) and Hodgkin's lymphoma (1.6). The risk for DM type 2 was slightly higher than that for type 1. Childhood cancer survivors are at increased risk for DM, with absolute risks increasing throughout life. These findings underscore the need for preventive interventions and prolonged follow-up of childhood cancer survivors. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Color excesses, intrinsic colors, and absolute magnitudes of Galactic and Large Magellanic Cloud Wolf-Rayet stars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vacca, William D.; Torres-Dodgen, Ana V.

1990-01-01

A new method of determining the color excesses of WR stars in the Galaxy and the LMC has been developed and is used to determine the excesses for 44 Galactic and 32 LMC WR stars. The excesses are combined with line-free, narrow-band spectrophotometry to derive intrinsic colors of the WR stars of nearly all spectral subtypes. No correlation of UV spectral index or intrinsic colors with spectral subtype is found for the samples of single WN or WC stars. There is evidence that early WN stars in the LMC have flatter UV continua and redder intrinsic colors than early WN stars in the Galaxy. No separation is found between the values derived for Galactic WC stars and those obtained for LMC WC stars. The intrinsic colors are compared with those calculated from model atmospheres of WR stars and generally good agreement is found. Absolute magnitudes are derived for WR stars in the LMC and for those Galactic WR stars located in clusters and associations for which there are reliable distance estimates.

Risk of a second cancer from scattered radiation in acoustic neuroma treatment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, Myonggeun; Lee, Hyunho; Sung, Jiwon; Shin, Dongoh; Park, Sungho; Chung, Weon Kuu; Jahng, Geon-Ho; Kim, Dong Wook

2014-06-01

The present study aimed to compare the risk of a secondary cancer from scattered and leakage doses in patients receiving intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT), volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT), and stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS). Four acoustic neuroma patients were treated with IMRT, VMAT, or SRS. Their excess relative risk (ERR), excess absolute risk (EAR), and lifetime attributable risk (LAR) of a secondary cancer were estimated using the corresponding secondary doses measured at various organs by using radio-photoluminescence glass dosimeters (RPLGD) placed inside a humanoid phantom. When a prescription dose was delivered in the planning target volume of the 4 patients, the average organ equivalent doses (OED) at the thyroid, lung, liver, bowel, bladder, prostate (or ovary), and rectum were 14.6, 1.7, 0.9, 0.8, 0.6, 0.6, and 0.6 cGy, respectively, for IMRT whereas they were 19.1, 1.8, 2.0, 0.6, 0.4, 0.4, and 0.4 cGy, respectively, for VMAT, and 22.8, 4.6, 1.4, 0.7, 0.5, 0.5, and 0.5 cGy, respectively, for SRS. The OED decreased as the distance from the primary beam increased. The thyroid received the highest OED compared to other organs. A lifetime attributable risk evaluation estimated that more than 0.03% of acoustic neuroma (AN) patients would get radiation-induced cancer within 20 years of receiving radiation therapy. The organ with the highest radiation-induced cancer risk after radiation treatment for AN was the thyroid. We found that the LAR could be increased by the transmitted dose from the primary beam. No modality-specific difference in radiation-induced cancer risk was observed in our study.

Do repeated risk factor measurements influence the impact of education on cardiovascular mortality?

PubMed

Ariansen, Inger; Graff-Iversen, Sidsel; Stigum, Hein; Strand, Bjørn Heine; Wills, Andrew K; Næss, Øyvind

2015-12-01

It has been questioned if the excess cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality by lower educational level can be fully explained by conventional modifiable CVD risk factors. Our objective was to examine whether repeated measures over time of risk factors (smoking, physical inactivity, blood pressure, total cholesterol and body mass index) explain more of the socioeconomic gradient in CVD mortality than if they are measured only once. A cohort of 34 884 men and women attended all three screenings (1974-1978, 1977-1983 and 1985-1988) in the Norwegian Counties Study and were followed for CVD mortality through 2009 by linkage to the Norwegian Cause of Death Registry. Age-adjusted and sex-adjusted HR of CVD mortality was 2.32 (95% CI 1.93 to 2.80) for basic relative to tertiary educated individuals. The HR was attenuated by 48% (HR 1.54 (1.28 to 1.87)) when adjusted for CVD risk factors measured at baseline and by 56% (HR 1.45 (1.20 to 1.75)) when two repeated measurements ascertained 5 years apart were added to the model. Similarly, absolute risk difference in CVD mortality by education was attenuated by 62% when adjusted for baseline and by 72% when adjusted for repeated measurements of risk factors. In this cohort, repeated measurements of risk factors seemed to explain more of the educational gradient in CVD mortality. This suggests that a substantial part of the excess CVD mortality among those with lower education might be explained by conventional risk factors. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Feasibility and Initial Efficacy Evaluation of a Community-Based Cognitive-Behavioral Lifestyle Intervention to Prevent Excessive Weight Gain During Pregnancy in Latina Women.

PubMed

Gesell, Sabina B; Katula, Jeffrey A; Strickland, Carmen; Vitolins, Mara Z

2015-08-01

About 48 % of US women gain more weight during pregnancy than recommended by the Institute of Medicine (IOM). Excessive gestational weight gain is a major risk factor for obesity in both women and offspring over their lifetimes, and should be avoided. This study was designed to test the feasibility and initial efficacy of a prenatal behavioral intervention in a sample of low-income, predominantly Latina women. The intervention was delivered in groups of 8-10 women in a community recreation center, and structured to reduce the proportion of women who gained weight in excess of IOM guidelines. Recruitment targets were met in 3 months: 135 pregnant women (>10 and <28 weeks) were randomly assigned to receive a 12-week intervention (n = 68) or usual care (n = 67). Retention rate was 81 %. On average, women attended 4 of 12 group sessions, and each session had 4 of the 8-10 assigned participants in attendance. Initial efficacy analyses were based on 87 women. Compared to usual care, fewer normal-weight women in the intervention exceeded IOM recommendations (47.1 % usual care vs. 6.7 % intervention; absolute difference 40.4 %; p = .036). Recommendations for recruitment, retention, and delivery are discussed. A community-based cognitive-behavioral lifestyle intervention during pregnancy was feasible in a hard-to-reach, high-risk population of low-income Latina women, and showed efficacy in preventing excessive gestational weight gain. Due to frequently changing work schedules, strategies are needed to either increase attendance at group sessions (e.g., within a group prenatal care format) or to build core skills necessary for behavior change through other modalities.

The risk of community-acquired pneumonia among 9803 patients with coeliac disease compared to the general population: a cohort study.

PubMed

Zingone, F; Abdul Sultan, A; Crooks, C J; Tata, L J; Ciacci, C; West, J

2016-07-01

Patients with coeliac disease are considered as individuals for whom pneumococcal vaccination is advocated. To quantify the risk of community-acquired pneumonia among patients with coeliac disease, assessing whether vaccination against streptococcal pneumonia modified this risk. We identified all patients with coeliac disease within the Clinical Practice Research Datalink linked with English Hospital Episodes Statistics between April 1997 and March 2011 and up to 10 controls per patient with coeliac disease frequency matched in 10-year age bands. Absolute rates of community-acquired pneumonia were calculated for patients with coeliac disease compared to controls stratified by vaccination status and time of diagnosis using Cox regression in terms of adjusted hazard ratios (HR). Among 9803 patients with coeliac disease and 101 755 controls, respectively, there were 179 and 1864 first community-acquired pneumonia events. Overall absolute rate of pneumonia was similar in patients with coeliac disease and controls: 3.42 and 3.12 per 1000 person-years respectively (HR 1.07, 95% CI 0.91-1.24). However, we found a 28% increased risk of pneumonia in coeliac disease unvaccinated subjects compared to unvaccinated controls (HR 1.28, 95% CI 1.02-1.60). This increased risk was limited to those younger than 65, was highest around the time of diagnosis and was maintained for more than 5 years after diagnosis. Only 26.6% underwent vaccination after their coeliac disease diagnosis. Unvaccinated patients with coeliac disease under the age of 65 have an excess risk of community-acquired pneumonia that was not found in vaccinated patients with coeliac disease. As only a minority of patients with coeliac disease are being vaccinated there is a missed opportunity to intervene to protect these patients from pneumonia. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate Change Impacts on Projections of Excess Mortality at 2030 using Spatially-Varying Ozone-Temperature Risk Surfaces

PubMed Central

Wilson, Ander; Reich, Brian J.; Nolte, Christopher G.; Spero, Tanya L.; Hubbell, Bryan; Rappold, Ana G.

2017-01-01

We project the change in ozone-related mortality burden attributable to changes in climate between a historical (1995–2005) and near-future (2025–2035) time period while incorporating a nonlinear and synergistic effect of ozone and temperature on mortality. We simulate air quality from climate projections varying only biogenic emissions and holding anthropogenic emissions constant, thus attributing changes in ozone only to changes in climate and independent of changes in air pollutant emissions. We estimate nonlinear, spatially-varying, ozone-temperature risk surfaces for 94 US urban areas using observed data. Using the risk surfaces and climate projections we estimate daily mortality attributable to ozone exceeding 40 ppb (moderate level) and 75 ppb (US ozone NAAQS) for each time period. The average increases in city-specific median April-October ozone and temperature between time periods are 1.02 ppb and 1.94°F; however, the results varied by region. Increases in ozone due to climate change result in an increase in ozone-mortality burden. Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 40 ppb increases by 7.7% (1.6%, 14.2%). Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 75 ppb increases by 14.2% (1.6%, 28.9%). The absolute increase in excess ozone mortality is larger for changes in moderate ozone levels, reflecting the larger number of days with moderate ozone levels. PMID:27005744

Risk of second bone sarcoma following childhood cancer: role of radiation therapy treatment.

PubMed

Schwartz, Boris; Benadjaoud, Mohamed Amine; Cléro, Enora; Haddy, Nadia; El-Fayech, Chiraz; Guibout, Catherine; Teinturier, Cécile; Oberlin, Odile; Veres, Cristina; Pacquement, Hélène; Munzer, Martine; N'guyen, Tan Dat; Bondiau, Pierre-Yves; Berchery, Delphine; Laprie, Anne; Hawkins, Mike; Winter, David; Lefkopoulos, Dimitri; Chavaudra, Jean; Rubino, Carole; Diallo, Ibrahima; Bénichou, Jacques; de Vathaire, Florent

2014-05-01

Bone sarcoma as a second malignancy is rare but highly fatal. The present knowledge about radiation-absorbed organ dose-response is insufficient to predict the risks induced by radiation therapy techniques. The objective of the present study was to assess the treatment-induced risk for bone sarcoma following a childhood cancer and particularly the related risk of radiotherapy. Therefore, a retrospective cohort of 4,171 survivors of a solid childhood cancer treated between 1942 and 1986 in France and Britain has been followed prospectively. We collected detailed information on treatments received during childhood cancer. Additionally, an innovative methodology has been developed to evaluate the dose-response relationship between bone sarcoma and radiation dose throughout this cohort. The median follow-up was 26 years, and 39 patients had developed bone sarcoma. It was found that the overall incidence was 45-fold higher [standardized incidence ratio 44.8, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 31.0-59.8] than expected from the general population, and the absolute excess risk was 35.1 per 100,000 person-years (95 % CI 24.0-47.1). The risk of bone sarcoma increased slowly up to a cumulative radiation organ absorbed dose of 15 Gy [hazard ratio (HR) = 8.2, 95 % CI 1.6-42.9] and then strongly increased for higher radiation doses (HR for 30 Gy or more 117.9, 95 % CI 36.5-380.6), compared with patients not treated with radiotherapy. A linear model with an excess relative risk per Gy of 1.77 (95 % CI 0.6213-5.935) provided a close fit to the data. These findings have important therapeutic implications: Lowering the radiation dose to the bones should reduce the incidence of secondary bone sarcomas. Other therapeutic solutions should be preferred to radiotherapy in bone sarcoma-sensitive areas.

On the calculation of the absolute grand potential of confined smectic-A phases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Chien-Cheng; Baus, Marc; Ryckaert, Jean-Paul

2015-09-01

We determine the absolute grand potential Λ along a confined smectic-A branch of a calamitic liquid crystal system enclosed in a slit pore of transverse area A and width L, using the rod-rod Gay-Berne potential and a rod-wall potential favouring perpendicular orientation at the walls. For a confined phase with an integer number of smectic layers sandwiched between the opposite walls, we obtain the excess properties (excess grand potential Λexc, solvation force fs and adsorption Γ) with respect to the bulk phase at the same μ (chemical potential) and T (temperature) state point. While usual thermodynamic integration methods are used along the confined smectic branch to estimate the grand potential difference as μ is varied at fixed L, T, the absolute grand potential at one reference state point is obtained via the evaluation of the absolute Helmholtz free energy in the (N, L, A, T) canonical ensemble. It proceeds via a sequence of free energy difference estimations involving successively the cost of localising rods on layers and the switching on of a one-dimensional harmonic field to keep layers integrity coupled to the elimination of inter-layers and wall interactions. The absolute free energy of the resulting set of fully independent layers of interacting rods is finally estimated via the existing procedures. This work opens the way to the computer simulation study of phase transitions implying confined layered phases.

Ratio measures in leading medical journals: structured review of accessibility of underlying absolute risks

PubMed Central

Schwartz, Lisa M; Dvorin, Evan L; Welch, H Gilbert

2006-01-01

Objective To examine the accessibility of absolute risk in articles reporting ratio measures in leading medical journals. Design Structured review of abstracts presenting ratio measures. Setting Articles published between 1 June 2003 and 1 May 2004 in Annals of Internal Medicine, BMJ, Journal of the American Medical Association, Journal of the National Cancer Institute, Lancet, and New England Journal of Medicine. Participants 222 articles based on study designs in which absolute risks were directly calculable (61 randomised trials, 161 cohort studies). Main outcome measure Accessibility of the absolute risks underlying the first ratio measure in the abstract. Results 68% of articles (150/222) failed to report the underlying absolute risks for the first ratio measure in the abstract (range 55−81% across the journals). Among these articles, about half did report the underlying absolute risks elsewhere in the article (text, table, or figure) but half did not report them anywhere. Absolute risks were more likely to be reported in the abstract for randomised trials compared with cohort studies (62% v 21%; relative risk 3.0, 95% confidence interval 2.1 to 4.2) and for studies reporting crude compared with adjusted ratio measures (62% v 21%; relative risk 3.0, 2.1 to 4.3). Conclusion Absolute risks are often not easily accessible in articles reporting ratio measures and sometimes are missing altogether—this lack of accessibility can easily exaggerate readers' perceptions of benefit or harm. PMID:17060338

Long-term inpatient disease burden in the Adult Life after Childhood Cancer in Scandinavia (ALiCCS) study: A cohort study of 21,297 childhood cancer survivors.

PubMed

de Fine Licht, Sofie; Rugbjerg, Kathrine; Gudmundsdottir, Thorgerdur; Bonnesen, Trine G; Asdahl, Peter Haubjerg; Holmqvist, Anna Sällfors; Madanat-Harjuoja, Laura; Tryggvadottir, Laufey; Wesenberg, Finn; Hasle, Henrik; Winther, Jeanette F; Olsen, Jørgen H

2017-05-01

Survivors of childhood cancer are at increased risk for a wide range of late effects. However, no large population-based studies have included the whole range of somatic diagnoses including subgroup diagnoses and all main types of childhood cancers. Therefore, we aimed to provide the most detailed overview of the long-term risk of hospitalisation in survivors of childhood cancer. From the national cancer registers of Denmark, Finland, Iceland, and Sweden, we identified 21,297 5-year survivors of childhood cancer diagnosed with cancer before the age of 20 years in the periods 1943-2008 in Denmark, 1971-2008 in Finland, 1955-2008 in Iceland, and 1958-2008 in Sweden. We randomly selected 152,231 population comparison individuals matched by age, sex, year, and country (or municipality in Sweden) from the national population registers. Using a cohort design, study participants were followed in the national hospital registers in Denmark, 1977-2010; Finland, 1975-2012; Iceland, 1999-2008; and Sweden, 1968-2009. Disease-specific hospitalisation rates in survivors and comparison individuals were used to calculate survivors' standardised hospitalisation rate ratios (RRs), absolute excess risks (AERs), and standardised bed day ratios (SBDRs) based on length of stay in hospital. We adjusted for sex, age, and year by indirect standardisation. During 336,554 person-years of follow-up (mean: 16 years; range: 0-42 years), childhood cancer survivors experienced 21,325 first hospitalisations for diseases in one or more of 120 disease categories (cancer recurrence not included), when 10,999 were expected, yielding an overall RR of 1.94 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.91-1.97). The AER was 3,068 (2,980-3,156) per 100,000 person-years, meaning that for each additional year of follow-up, an average of 3 of 100 survivors were hospitalised for a new excess disease beyond the background rates. Approximately 50% of the excess hospitalisations were for diseases of the nervous system (19.1% of all excess hospitalisations), endocrine system (11.1%), digestive organs (10.5%), and respiratory system (10.0%). Survivors of all types of childhood cancer were at increased, persistent risk for subsequent hospitalisation, the highest risks being those of survivors of neuroblastoma (RR: 2.6 [2.4-2.8]; n = 876), hepatic tumours (RR: 2.5 [2.0-3.1]; n = 92), central nervous system tumours (RR: 2.4 [2.3-2.5]; n = 6,175), and Hodgkin lymphoma (RR: 2.4 [2.3-2.5]; n = 2,027). Survivors spent on average five times as many days in hospital as comparison individuals (SBDR: 4.96 [4.94-4.98]; n = 422,218). The analyses of bed days in hospital included new primary cancers and recurrences. Of the total 422,218 days survivors spent in hospital, 47% (197,596 bed days) were for new primary cancers and recurrences. Our study is likely to underestimate the absolute overall disease burden experienced by survivors, as less severe late effects are missed if they are treated sufficiently in the outpatient setting or in the primary health care system. Childhood cancer survivors were at increased long-term risk for diseases requiring inpatient treatment even decades after their initial cancer. Health care providers who do not work in the area of late effects, especially those in primary health care, should be aware of this highly challenged group of patients in order to avoid or postpone hospitalisations by prevention, early detection, and appropriate treatments.

Shedding Light on the Etiology of Sports Injuries: A Look Behind the Scenes of Time-to-Event Analyses.

PubMed

Nielsen, Rasmus Østergaard; Malisoux, Laurent; Møller, Merete; Theisen, Daniel; Parner, Erik Thorlund

2016-04-01

The etiological mechanism underpinning any sports-related injury is complex and multifactorial. Frequently, athletes perceive "excessive training" as the principal factor in their injury, an observation that is biologically plausible yet somewhat ambiguous. If the applied training load is suddenly increased, this may increase the risk for sports injury development, irrespective of the absolute amount of training. Indeed, little to no rigorous scientific evidence exists to support the hypothesis that fluctuations in training load, compared to absolute training load, are more important in explaining sports injury development. One reason for this could be that prospective data from scientific studies should be analyzed in a different manner. Time-to-event analysis is a useful statistical tool in which to analyze the influence of changing exposures on injury risk. However, the potential of time-to-event analysis remains insufficiently exploited in sports injury research. Therefore, the purpose of the present article was to present and discuss measures of association used in time-to-event analyses and to present the advanced concept of time-varying exposures and outcomes. In the paper, different measures of association, such as cumulative relative risk, cumulative risk difference, and the classical hazard rate ratio, are presented in a nontechnical manner, and suggestions for interpretation of study results are provided. To summarize, time-to-event analysis complements the statistical arsenal of sports injury prevention researchers, because it enables them to analyze the complex and highly dynamic reality of injury etiology, injury recurrence, and time to recovery across a range of sporting contexts.

Hypoglycemia in type 2 diabetes: Standpoint of an experts’ committee (India hypoglycemia study group)

PubMed Central

Viswanathan, Mohan; Joshi, Shashank R.; Bhansali, Anil

2012-01-01

The epidemic of type 2 diabetes and the recognition that achieving specific glycemic goals can substantially reduce morbidity have made the effective treatment of hyperglycemia a top priority. Despite compelling evidence that tight glycemic control is crucial for delaying disease progression, increased risk of hypoglycemia associated with such control underscore the complexity of diabetes management. In most cases, hypoglycemia results from an excess of insulin, either absolute or relative to the available glucose substrate and the factors perhaps exacerbating the risk are pharmacokinetic imperfections, behavioral, co-morbidities etc. Additionally, many patients remain undiagnosed, and many diagnosed patients are not treated appropriately. In this article, the challenges of hypoglycemia, confronting health care providers and their patients with diabetes, are discussed for making treatment decisions that will help minimize risk of hypoglycemia and eventually overcome formidable barriers to optimal diabetes management. Strategies to treat and minimize the frequency and severity of hypoglycemia without compromising on glycemic goals are also presented. PMID:23226632

Impact of Aortic Valve Calcification, as Measured by MDCT, on Survival in Patients With Aortic Stenosis

PubMed Central

Clavel, Marie-Annick; Pibarot, Philippe; Messika-Zeitoun, David; Capoulade, Romain; Malouf, Joseph; Aggarval, Shivani; Araoz, Phillip A.; Michelena, Hector I.; Cueff, Caroline; Larose, Eric; Miller, Jordan D.; Vahanian, Alec; Enriquez-Sarano, Maurice

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND Aortic valve calcification (AVC) load measures lesion severity in aortic stenosis (AS) and is useful for diagnostic purposes. Whether AVC predicts survival after diagnosis, independent of clinical and Doppler echocardiographic AS characteristics, has not been studied. OBJECTIVES This study evaluated the impact of AVC load, absolute and relative to aortic annulus size (AVCdensity), on overall mortality in patients with AS under conservative treatment and without regard to treatment. METHODS In 3 academic centers, we enrolled 794 patients (mean age, 73 ± 12 years; 274 women) diagnosed with AS by Doppler echocardiography who underwent multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) within the same episode of care. Absolute AVC load and AVCdensity (ratio of absolute AVC to cross-sectional area of aortic annulus) were measured, and severe AVC was separately defined in men and women. RESULTS During follow-up, there were 440 aortic valve implantations (AVIs) and 194 deaths (115 under medical treatment). Univariate analysis showed strong association of absolute AVC and AVCdensity with survival (both, p < 0.0001) with a spline curve analysis pattern of threshold and plateau of risk. After adjustment for age, sex, coronary artery disease, diabetes, symptoms, AS severity on hemodynamic assessment, and LV ejection fraction, severe absolute AVC (adjusted hazard ratio [HR]: 1.75; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.04 to 2.92; p = 0.03) or severe AVCdensity (adjusted HR: 2.44; 95% CI: 1.37 to 4.37; p = 0.002) independently predicted mortality under medical treatment, with additive model predictive value (all, p ≤ 0.04) and a net reclassification index of 12.5% (p = 0.04). Severe absolute AVC (adjusted HR: 1.71; 95% CI: 1.12 to 2.62; p = 0.01) and severe AVCdensity (adjusted HR: 2.22; 95% CI: 1.40 to 3.52; p = 0.001) also independently predicted overall mortality, even with adjustment for time-dependent AVI. CONCLUSIONS This large-scale, multicenter outcomes study of quantitative Doppler echocardiographic and MDCT assessment of AS shows that measuring AVC load provides incremental prognostic value for survival beyond clinical and Doppler echocardiographic assessment. Severe AVC independently predicts excess mortality after AS diagnosis, which is greatly alleviated by AVI. Thus, measurement of AVC by MDCT should be considered for not only diagnostic but also risk-stratification purposes in patients with AS. PMID:25236511

The gender- and age-specific 10-year and lifetime absolute fracture risk in Tromsø, Norway.

PubMed

Ahmed, Luai A; Schirmer, Henrik; Bjørnerem, Ashild; Emaus, Nina; Jørgensen, Lone; Størmer, Jan; Joakimsen, Ragnar M

2009-01-01

Aim of this study is to estimate the gender- and age-specific 10-year and lifetime absolute risks of non-vertebral and osteoporotic (included hip, distal forearm and proximal humerus) fractures in a large cohort of men and women. This is a population-based 10 years follow-up study of 26,891 subjects aged 25 years and older in Tromsø, Norway. All non-vertebral fractures were registered from 1995 throughout 2004 by computerized search in radiographic archives. Absolute risks were estimated by life-table method taking into account the competing risk of death. The absolute fracture risk at each year of age was estimated for the next 10 years (10-year risk) or up to the age of 90 years (lifetime risk). The estimated 10-year absolute risk of all non-vertebral fracture was higher in men than women before but not after the age of 45 years. The 10-year absolute risk for non-vertebral and osteoporotic fractures was over 10%, respectively, in men over 65 and 70 years and in women over 45 and 50 years of age. The 10-year absolute risks of hip fractures at the age of 65 and 80 years were 4.2 and 18.6% in men, and 9.0 and 24.0% in women, respectively. The risk estimates for distal forearm and proximal humerus fractures were under 5% in men and 13% in women. The estimated lifetime risks for all fracture locations were higher in women than men at all ages. At the age of 50 years, the risks were 38.1 and 24.8% in men and 67.4 and 55.0% in women for all non-vertebral and osteoporotic fractures, respectively. The estimated gender- and age-specific 10-year and lifetime absolute fracture risk were higher in Tromsø than in other populations. The high lifetime fracture risk reflects the increased burden of fractures in this cohort.

Short-term market reaction after trading halts in Chinese stock market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Hai-Chuan; Zhang, Wei; Liu, Yi-Fang

2014-05-01

In this paper, we study the dynamics of absolute return, trading volume and bid-ask spread after the trading halts using high-frequency data from the Shanghai Stock Exchange. We deal with all three types of trading halts, namely intraday halts, one-day halts and inter-day halts, of 203 stocks in Shanghai Stock Exchange from August 2009 to 2011. We find that absolute return, trading volume, and in case of bid-ask spread around intraday halts share the same pattern with a sharp peak and a power law relaxation after that. While for different types of trading halts, the peaks’ height and the relaxation exponents are different. From the perspective of halt reasons or halt durations, the relaxation exponents of absolute return after inter-day halts are larger than those after intraday halts and one-day halts, which implies that inter-day halts are most effective. From the perspective of price trends, the relaxation exponents of excess absolute return and excess volume for positive events are larger than those for negative events in case of intraday halts and one-day halts, implying that positive events are more effective than negative events for intraday halts and one-day halts. In contrast, negative events are more effective than positive events for inter-day halts.

Short- and long-term risks of cardiovascular disease following radiotherapy in rectal cancer in four randomized controlled trials and a population-based register.

PubMed

Chen, Lingjing; Eloranta, Sandra; Martling, Anna; Glimelius, Ingrid; Neovius, Martin; Glimelius, Bengt; Smedby, Karin E

2018-03-01

A population-based cohort and four randomized trials enriched with long-term register data were used to clarify if radiotherapy in combination with rectal cancer surgery is associated with increased risks of cardiovascular disease (CVD). We identified 14,901 rectal cancer patients diagnosed 1995-2009 in Swedish nationwide registers, of whom 9227 were treated with preoperative radiotherapy. Also, we investigated 2675 patients with rectal cancer previously randomized to preoperative radiotherapy or not followed by surgery in trials conducted 1980-1999. Risks of CVD overall and subtypes were estimated based on prospectively recorded hospital visits during relapse-free follow-up using multivariable Cox regression. Maximum follow-up was 18 and 33 years in the register and trials, respectively. We found no association between preoperative radiotherapy and overall CVD risk in the register (Incidence Rate Ratio, IRR = 0.99, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.92-1.06) or in the pooled trials (IRR = 1.07, 95% CI 0.93-1.24). We noted an increased risk of venous thromboembolism among irradiated patients in both cohorts (IRR register  = 1.41, 95% CI 1.15-2.72; IRR trials  = 1.41, 95% CI 0.97-2.04), that remained during the first 6 months following surgery among patients treated 2006-2009, after the introduction of antithrombotic treatment (IRR 6 months  = 2.30, 95% CI 1.01-5.21). However, the absolute rate difference of venous thromboembolism attributed to RT was low (10 cases per 1000 patients and year). Preoperative radiotherapy did not affect rectal cancer patients' risk of CVD overall. Although an excess risk of short-term venous thromboembolism was noted, the small increase in absolute numbers does not call for general changes in routine prophylactic treatment, but might do so for patients already at high risk of venous thromboembolism. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Noncolorectal malignancies in inflammatory bowel disease: more than meets the eye.

PubMed

Beaugerie, Laurent; Sokol, Harry; Seksik, Philippe

2009-01-01

In patients with Crohn's disease, the risk of small bowel adenocarcinoma is 20-40 times higher than the low background risk of the general population. In the subset of patients with longstanding small bowel lesions, the absolute risk of small bowel adenocarcinoma exceeds 1 per 100 patient-years after 25 years of follow-up and becomes equivalent to the risk of colorectal cancer. Growing evidence suggests that the pathogenesis of small bowel adenocarcinoma arising in inflammatory lesions of Crohn's disease is similar to that of colorectal cancer complicating chronic colonic inflammation (inflammation-dysplasia-cancer sequence). However, contrasting with the established endoscopic detection of colonic advanced neoplasias in patients with longstanding extensive colitis, there is no consensus at this time how to face the excess-risk of small bowel adenocarcinoma in patients at high risk. There are no specific clinical or imaging alert signs and endoscopic surveillance of the totality of the inflamed small bowel mucosa would suppose to perform repeated enteroscopies, with the potential limiting factor of stenosis. Very preliminary data suggest that chemoprevention with salicylates could be an alternative way for reducing the risk. Data from referral centers and from the CESAME cohort suggest that intestinal lymphomas may arise in the chronically inflamed segments in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Regarding nonintestinal lymphomas, it is now established that IBD patients treated with thiopurines have an excess risk of lymphomas, exhibiting in most cases pathological features of lymphomas associated with immunosuppression, including the frequent presence of EBV in neoplastic tissues. There is growing evidence that treatment with thiopurines is responsible by itself for this excess risk. IBD patients receiving immunomodulators, especially young men, are also at risk (0.4 for 10,000 patient-years in the CESAME study) for developing fatal early post-mononucleosis lymphomas, like in Purtilo's syndrome, maybe in association with a background genetic susceptibility. Finally, patients receiving thiopurines and/or TNF-inhibitors are at risk for developing fatal hepatosplenic T cell lymphomas, but this risk is low (no case in the CESAME study). Whether patients receiving a monotherapy with methotrexate and/or TNF inhibitors are at increased risk of lymphomas is not known. Concordant data suggest that women receiving immunosuppressive therapy are at increased risk for developing uterine cervix dysplasia and require closer surveillance. But it is not established whether the risk of uterine cervix cancer and basal and squamous cell skin cancers (that may be associated with chronic human papillomavirus infection) is increased in patients receiving immunomodulators. Copyright 2009 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Population-based absolute risk estimation with survey data

PubMed Central

Kovalchik, Stephanie A.; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.

2013-01-01

Absolute risk is the probability that a cause-specific event occurs in a given time interval in the presence of competing events. We present methods to estimate population-based absolute risk from a complex survey cohort that can accommodate multiple exposure-specific competing risks. The hazard function for each event type consists of an individualized relative risk multiplied by a baseline hazard function, which is modeled nonparametrically or parametrically with a piecewise exponential model. An influence method is used to derive a Taylor-linearized variance estimate for the absolute risk estimates. We introduce novel measures of the cause-specific influences that can guide modeling choices for the competing event components of the model. To illustrate our methodology, we build and validate cause-specific absolute risk models for cardiovascular and cancer deaths using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Our applications demonstrate the usefulness of survey-based risk prediction models for predicting health outcomes and quantifying the potential impact of disease prevention programs at the population level. PMID:23686614

Risk of second primary malignancies and survival of adult patients with polycythemia vera: A United States population-based retrospective study.

PubMed

Khanal, Nabin; Giri, Smith; Upadhyay, Smrity; Shostrom, Valerie K; Pathak, Ranjan; Bhatt, Vijaya Raj

2016-01-01

Although the median survival in polycythemia vera (PV) is 14 years, mortality is higher than in an age- and sex-matched population. This study included 3941 PV patients diagnosed between 2000-2012 from Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) 13 registry to determine 5-year survival and the incidence of second primary malignancies (SPM). The actuarial 5 year survival in the overall cohort was 79.5%. The cumulative incidence of SPM was 13.1% at 10 years. SPMs occurred at a standardized incidence ratio (SIR) of 1.29 (95% CI = 1.16-1.43; p < 0.001) with an absolute excess risk (AER) of 42.49 per 10 000 population. A significantly higher risk was noted for acute myeloid leukemia (SIR = 12.24; 95% CI = 8.17-17.8; p-value < 0.001) and chronic myeloid leukemia (SIR = 10.66; 95% CI = 3.75-19.6; p-value < 0.001). Patients with PV are at a high risk of SPM and leukemic transformation, which may compromise long-term survival.

Ovarian cancer survival population differences: a "high resolution study" comparing Philippine residents, and Filipino-Americans and Caucasians living in the US.

PubMed

Redaniel, Maria Theresa M; Laudico, Adriano; Mirasol-Lumague, Maria Rica; Gondos, Adam; Uy, Gemma Leonora; Toral, Jean Ann; Benavides, Doris; Brenner, Hermann

2009-09-24

In contrast to most other forms of cancer, data from some developing and developed countries show surprisingly similar survival rates for ovarian cancer. We aimed to compare ovarian cancer survival in Philippine residents, Filipino-Americans and Caucasians living in the US, using a high resolution approach, taking potential differences in prognostic factors into account. Using databases from the SEER 13 and from the Manila and Rizal Cancer Registries, age-adjusted five-year absolute and relative survival estimates were computed using the period analysis method and compared between Filipino-American ovarian cancer patients with cancer patients from the Philippines and Caucasians in the US. Cox proportional hazards modelling was used to determine factors affecting survival differences. Despite more favorable distribution of age and cancer morphology and similar stage distribution, 5-year absolute and relative survival were lower in Philippine residents (Absolute survival, AS, 44%, Standard Error, SE, 2.9 and Relative survival, RS, 49.7%, SE, 3.7) than in Filipino-Americans (AS, 51.3%, SE, 3.1 and RS, 54.1%, SE, 3.4). After adjustment for these and additional covariates, strong excess risk of death for Philippine residents was found (Relative Risk, RR, 2.45, 95% confidence interval, 95% CI, 1.99-3.01). In contrast, no significant differences were found between Filipino-Americans and Caucasians living in the US. Multivariate analyses disclosed strong survival disadvantages of Philippine residents compared to Filipino-American patients, for which differences in access to health care might have played an important role. Survival is no worse among Filipino-Americans than among Caucasians living in the US.

Do the wealthy have a health advantage? Cardiovascular disease risk factors and wealth.

PubMed

Hajat, A; Kaufman, J S; Rose, K M; Siddiqi, A; Thomas, J C

2010-12-01

The use of wealth as a measure of socioeconomic status (SES) remains uncommon in epidemiological studies. When used, wealth is often measured crudely and at a single point in time. Our study explores the relationship between wealth and three cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors (smoking, obesity and hypertension) in a US population. We improve upon existing literature by using a detailed and validated measure of wealth in a longitudinal setting. We used four waves of data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) collected between 1999 and 2005. Inverse probability weights were employed to control for time-varying confounding and to estimate both relative (risk ratio) and absolute (risk difference) measures of effect. Wealth was defined as inflation-adjusted net worth and specified as a six category variable: one category for those with less than or equal to zero wealth and quintiles of positive wealth. After adjusting for income and other time-varying confounders, as well as baseline covariates, the risk of becoming obese was inversely related to wealth. There was a 40%-89% higher risk of becoming obese among the less wealthy relative to the wealthiest quintile and 11 to 25 excess cases (per 1000 persons) among the less wealthy groups over six years of follow up. Smoking initiation had similar but more moderate effects; risk ratios and differences both revealed a smaller magnitude of effect compared to obesity. Of the three CVD risk factors examined here, hypertension incidence had the weakest association with wealth, showing a smaller increased risk and fewer excess cases among the less wealthy groups. In conclusion, this study found a strong inverse association between wealth and obesity incidence, a moderate inverse association between wealth and smoking initiation and a weak inverse association between wealth and hypertension incidence after controlling for income and other time-varying confounders. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk communication methods in hip fracture prevention: a randomised trial in primary care.

PubMed

Hudson, Ben; Toop, Les; Mangin, Dee; Pearson, John

2011-08-01

Treatment acceptance by patients is influenced by the way treatment effects are presented. Presentation of benefits using relative risk increases treatment acceptance compared to the use of absolute risk. It is not known whether this effect is modified by prior presentation of a patient's individualised risk estimate or how presentation of treatment harms by relative or absolute risk affects acceptance. To compare acceptance of a hypothetical treatment to prevent hip fracture after presentation of the treatment's benefit in relative or absolute terms in the context of a personal fracture risk estimate, and to reassess acceptance following subsequent presentation of harm in relative or absolute terms. Randomised controlled trial of patients recruited from 10 GPs' lists in Christchurch, New Zealand. Women aged ≥ 50 years were invited to participate. Participants were given a personal 10-year hip fracture risk estimate and randomised to receive information on a hypothetical treatment's benefit and harm in relative or absolute terms. Of the 1140 women invited to participate 393 (34%) took part. Treatment acceptance was greater following presentation of benefit using absolute terms than relative terms after adjustment forage, education, previous osteoporosis diagnosis, and self-reported risk (OR 1.73, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.10 to 2.73, P = 0.018). Presentation of the treatment's harmful effect in relative terms led to a greater proportion of participants declining treatment than did presentation in absolute terms (OR 4.89, 95% CI = 2.3 to 11.0, P<0.001). Presentation of treatment benefit and harm using absolute risk estimates led to greater treatment acceptance than presentation of the same information in relative terms.

Guillain-Barré syndrome and adjuvanted pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 vaccine: multinational case-control study in Europe

PubMed Central

Dieleman, Jeanne; Romio, Silvana; Johansen, Kari; Weibel, Daniel; Bonhoeffer, Jan

2011-01-01

Objective To assess the association between pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 vaccine and Guillain-Barré syndrome. Design Case-control study. Setting Five European countries. Participants 104 patients with Guillain-Barré syndrome and its variant Miller-Fisher syndrome matched to one or more controls. Case status was classified according to the Brighton Collaboration definition. Controls were matched to cases on age, sex, index date, and country. Main outcome measures Relative risk estimate for Guillain-Barré syndrome after pandemic influenza vaccine. Results Case recruitment and vaccine coverage varied considerably between countries; the most common vaccines used were adjuvanted (Pandemrix and Focetria). The unadjusted pooled risk estimate for all countries was 2.8 (95% confidence interval 1.3 to 6.0). After adjustment for influenza-like illness/upper respiratory tract infection and seasonal influenza vaccination, receipt of pandemic influenza vaccine was not associated with an increased risk of Guillain-Barré syndrome (adjusted odds ratio 1.0, 0.3 to 2.7). The 95% confidence interval shows that the absolute effect of vaccination could range from one avoided case of Guillain-Barré syndrome up to three excess cases within six weeks after vaccination in one million people. Conclusions The risk of occurrence of Guillain-Barré syndrome is not increased after pandemic influenza vaccine, although the upper limit does not exclude a potential increase in risk up to 2.7-fold or three excess cases per one million vaccinated people. When assessing the association between pandemic influenza vaccines and Guillain-Barré syndrome it is important to account for the effects of influenza-like illness/upper respiratory tract infection, seasonal influenza vaccination, and calendar time. PMID:21750072

Burden of Mortality Attributable to Diagnosed Diabetes: A Nationwide Analysis Based on Claims Data From 65 Million People in Germany.

PubMed

Jacobs, Esther; Hoyer, Annika; Brinks, Ralph; Kuss, Oliver; Rathmann, Wolfgang

2017-12-01

In Germany, as in many other countries, nationwide data on mortality attributable to diagnosed diabetes are not available. This study estimated the absolute number of excess deaths associated with diabetes (all types) and type 2 diabetes in Germany. A prevalence approach that included nationwide routine data from 64.9 million people insured in the German statutory health insurance system in 2010 was used for the calculation. Because nationwide data on diabetes mortality are lacking in Germany, the mortality rate ratio from the Danish National Diabetes Register was used. The absolute number of excess deaths associated with diabetes was calculated as the number of deaths due to diabetes minus the number of deaths due to diabetes with a mortality that was as high as in the population without diabetes. Furthermore, the mortality population-attributable fraction was calculated. A total of 174,627 excess deaths were due to diabetes in 2010, including 137,950 due to type 2 diabetes. Overall, 21% of all deaths in Germany were attributable to diabetes and 16% were attributable to type 2 diabetes. Most of the excess deaths (34% each) occurred in the 70- to 89-year-old age-group. In this first nationwide calculation of excess deaths related to diabetes in Germany, the results suggest that the official German estimates that rely on information from death certificates are grossly underestimated. Countries without national cohorts or diabetes registries could easily use this method to estimate the number of excess deaths due to diabetes. © 2017 by the American Diabetes Association.

Cardiovascular Disease Mortality After Chemotherapy or Surgery for Testicular Nonseminoma: A Population-Based Study

PubMed Central

Fung, Chunkit; Fossa, Sophie D.; Milano, Michael T.; Sahasrabudhe, Deepak M.; Peterson, Derick R.; Travis, Lois B.

2015-01-01

Purpose Increased risks of incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) in patients with testicular cancer (TC) given chemotherapy in European studies were largely restricted to long-term survivors and included patients from the 1960s. Few population-based investigations have quantified CVD mortality during, shortly after, and for two decades after TC diagnosis in the era of cisplatin-based chemotherapy. Patients and Methods Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) for CVD and absolute excess risks (AERs; number of excess deaths per 10,000 person-years) were calculated for 15,006 patients with testicular nonseminoma reported to the population-based Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program (1980 to 2010) who initially received chemotherapy (n = 6,909) or surgery (n = 8,097) without radiotherapy and accrued 60,065 and 81,227 person-years of follow-up, respectively. Multivariable modeling evaluated effects of age, treatment, extent of disease, and other factors on CVD mortality. Results Significantly increased CVD mortality occurred after chemotherapy (SMR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.78; n = 54) but not surgery (SMR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.60 to 1.07; n = 50). Significant excess deaths after chemotherapy were restricted to the first year after TC diagnosis (SMR, 5.31; AER, 13.90; n = 11) and included cerebrovascular disease (SMR, 21.72; AER, 7.43; n = 5) and heart disease (SMR, 3.45; AER, 6.64; n = 6). In multivariable analyses, increased CVD mortality after chemotherapy was confined to the first year after TC diagnosis (hazard ratio, 4.86; 95% CI, 1.25 to 32.08); distant disease (P < .05) and older age at diagnosis (P < .01) were independent risk factors. Conclusion This is the first population-based study, to our knowledge, to quantify short- and long-term CVD mortality after TC diagnosis. The increased short-term risk of CVD deaths should be further explored in analytic studies that enumerate incident events and can serve to develop comprehensive evidence-based approaches for risk stratification and application of preventive and interventional efforts. PMID:26240226

An Ensemble System Based on Hybrid EGARCH-ANN with Different Distributional Assumptions to Predict S&P 500 Intraday Volatility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lahmiri, S.; Boukadoum, M.

2015-10-01

Accurate forecasting of stock market volatility is an important issue in portfolio risk management. In this paper, an ensemble system for stock market volatility is presented. It is composed of three different models that hybridize the exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) process and the artificial neural network trained with the backpropagation algorithm (BPNN) to forecast stock market volatility under normal, t-Student, and generalized error distribution (GED) assumption separately. The goal is to design an ensemble system where each single hybrid model is capable to capture normality, excess skewness, or excess kurtosis in the data to achieve complementarity. The performance of each EGARCH-BPNN and the ensemble system is evaluated by the closeness of the volatility forecasts to realized volatility. Based on mean absolute error and mean of squared errors, the experimental results show that proposed ensemble model used to capture normality, skewness, and kurtosis in data is more accurate than the individual EGARCH-BPNN models in forecasting the S&P 500 intra-day volatility based on one and five-minute time horizons data.

History of the development of radiation protection standards for space activities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sinclair, W K

Initial recommendations for limitations on radiation exposures in space were made in 1970 by the Radiobiological Advisory Panel of the Committee on Space Medicine, National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council (NAS/NRC). Using a risk-based approach and taking into consideration a range of factors, the Panel recommended an overall career limit of 4 Sv. Because it was assumed that only small numbers of people would be involved, most of whom would be in excess of 30 y of age, the question of genetic effects did not appear to be of concern. On the basis of subsequent epidemiological findings, the values ofmore » the risk coefficients were increased. As a result of this and other considerations, NASA in the early 1980s asked the NCRP to re-examine both the risks and the philosophy for protecting astronauts. In undertaking this task, the NCRP decided to treat the radiation exposures of crew members and payload specialists as an occupational hazard and to evaluate their risks in terms of those to radiation workers and to workers in other industries. Noting that in the less safe but not the most hazardous occupations, workers had an average lifetime risk of mortality of about three percent, the NCRP concluded that a reasonable career limit for astronauts should be based on a lifetime absolute excess risk of mortality of three percent. Using this as a base, the NCRP recommended a career limit for 25 y olds of 1 Sv for females and 1.5 Sv for males. Since the risk decreases the older the age at which the exposures begin, the limits culminated with a career limit of 3 Sv for females and 4 Sv for males whose initial exposure occurred at age 55. These recommendations were based on an assumed nominal value of a lifetime risk of fatal cancers for all ages of about 2 {times} 10{sup -2} Sv{sup -1}.« less

Method of excess fractions with application to absolute distance metrology: wavelength selection and the effects of common error sources.

PubMed

Falaggis, Konstantinos; Towers, David P; Towers, Catherine E

2012-09-20

Multiwavelength interferometry (MWI) is a well established technique in the field of optical metrology. Previously, we have reported a theoretical analysis of the method of excess fractions that describes the mutual dependence of unambiguous measurement range, reliability, and the measurement wavelengths. In this paper wavelength, selection strategies are introduced that are built on the theoretical description and maximize the reliability in the calculated fringe order for a given measurement range, number of wavelengths, and level of phase noise. Practical implementation issues for an MWI interferometer are analyzed theoretically. It is shown that dispersion compensation is best implemented by use of reference measurements around absolute zero in the interferometer. Furthermore, the effects of wavelength uncertainty allow the ultimate performance of an MWI interferometer to be estimated.

Erythroleukemia shares biological features and outcome with myelodysplastic syndromes with excess blasts: a rationale for its inclusion into future classifications of myelodysplastic syndromes.

PubMed

Calvo, Xavier; Arenillas, Leonor; Luño, Elisa; Senent, Leonor; Arnan, Montserrat; Ramos, Fernando; Ardanaz, María Teresa; Pedro, Carme; Tormo, Mar; Montoro, Julia; Díez-Campelo, María; Arrizabalaga, Beatriz; Xicoy, Blanca; Bonanad, Santiago; Jerez, Andrés; Nomdedeu, Benet; Ferrer, Ana; Sanz, Guillermo F; Florensa, Lourdes

2016-12-01

Erythroleukemia was considered an acute myeloid leukemia in the 2008 World Health Organization (WHO) classification and is defined by the presence of ≥50% bone marrow erythroblasts, having <20% bone marrow blasts from total nucleated cells but ≥20% bone marrow myeloblasts from nonerythroid cells. Erythroleukemia shares clinicopathologic features with myelodysplastic syndromes, especially with erythroid-predominant myelodysplastic syndromes (≥50% bone marrow erythroblasts). The upcoming WHO revision proposes to eliminate the nonerythroid blast cell count rule and to move erythroleukemia patients into the appropriate myelodysplastic syndrome category on the basis of the absolute blast cell count. We conducted a retrospective study of patients with de novo erythroleukemia and compared their clinico-biological features and outcome with those of de novo myelodysplastic syndromes, focusing on erythroid-predominant myelodysplastic syndromes. Median overall survival of 405 erythroid-predominant myelodysplastic syndromes without excess blasts was significantly longer than that observed in 57 erythroid-predominant refractory anemias with excess blasts-1 and in 59 erythroleukemias, but no significant difference was observed between erythroid-predominant refractory anemias with excess blasts-1 and erythroleukemias. In this subset of patients with ≥50% bone marrow erythroblasts and excess blasts, the presence of a high-risk karyotype defined by the International Prognostic Scoring System or by the Revised International Prognostic Scoring System was the main prognostic factor. In the same way, the survival of 459 refractory anemias with excess blasts-2, independently of having ≥20% bone marrow blasts from nonerythroid cells or not, was almost identical to the observed in 59 erythroleukemias. Interestingly, 11 low-blast count erythroleukemias with 5 to <10% bone marrow blasts from total nucleated cells showed similar survival than the rest of erythroleukemias. Our data suggest that de novo erythroleukemia is in the spectrum of myelodysplastic syndromes with excess blasts and support its inclusion into future classifications of myelodysplastic syndromes.

Mother's education and the risk of preterm and small for gestational age birth: a DRIVERS meta-analysis of 12 European cohorts.

PubMed

Ruiz, Milagros; Goldblatt, Peter; Morrison, Joana; Kukla, Lubomír; Švancara, Jan; Riitta-Järvelin, Marjo; Taanila, Anja; Saurel-Cubizolles, Marie-Josèphe; Lioret, Sandrine; Bakoula, Chryssa; Veltsista, Alexandra; Porta, Daniela; Forastiere, Francesco; van Eijsden, Manon; Vrijkotte, Tanja G M; Eggesbø, Merete; White, Richard A; Barros, Henrique; Correia, Sofia; Vrijheid, Martine; Torrent, Maties; Rebagliato, Marisa; Larrañaga, Isabel; Ludvigsson, Johnny; Olsen Faresjö, Åshild; Hryhorczuk, Daniel; Antipkin, Youriy; Marmot, Michael; Pikhart, Hynek

2015-09-01

A healthy start to life is a major priority in efforts to reduce health inequalities across Europe, with important implications for the health of future generations. There is limited combined evidence on inequalities in health among newborns across a range of European countries. Prospective cohort data of 75 296 newborns from 12 European countries were used. Maternal education, preterm and small for gestational age births were determined at baseline along with covariate data. Regression models were estimated within each cohort and meta-analyses were conducted to compare and measure heterogeneity between cohorts. Mother's education was linked to an appreciable risk of preterm and small for gestational age (SGA) births across 12 European countries. The excess risk of preterm births associated with low maternal education was 1.48 (1.29 to 1.69) and 1.84 (0.99 to 2.69) in relative and absolute terms (Relative/Slope Index of Inequality, RII/SII) for all cohorts combined. Similar effects were found for SGA births, but absolute inequalities were greater, with an SII score of 3.64 (1.74 to 5.54). Inequalities at birth were strong in the Netherlands, the UK, Sweden and Spain and marginal in other countries studied. This study highlights the value of comparative cohort analysis to better understand the relationship between maternal education and markers of fetal growth in different settings across Europe. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Increased risk of second malignant neoplasms in adolescents and young adults with cancer.

PubMed

Lee, Jean S; DuBois, Steven G; Coccia, Peter F; Bleyer, Archie; Olin, Rebecca L; Goldsby, Robert E

2016-01-01

The authors describe the incidence and characteristics of secondary malignant neoplasms (SMNs) in adolescent and young adult (AYA) cancer survivors compared with those in younger and older cancer survivors. Children aged ≤ 14 years, AYAs aged 15 to 39, and older adults aged ≥ 40 years at the time of primary diagnosis who were reported as cancer survivors in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program between 1973 and 2011 were compared in this population-based analysis. The primary analysis was the risk that an SMN would occur ≥ 5 years after the original diagnosis for patients who had the more common AYA cancers (leukemia, lymphoma, testicular malignancy, ovarian malignancy, melanoma, and cancers of the thyroid, breast, soft tissue, or bone). The standardized incidence ratio (SIR), absolute excess risk (AER), and cumulative incidence of SMN for the selected cancers were assessed. The risk of SMN for the entire cohort also was analyzed. Of the 148,558 AYA survivors who were diagnosed with a selected cancer, 7384 developed an SMN 5 years after their original diagnosis. The SIRs (95% confidence intervals [CIs]) were 1.58 (95% CI, 1.55-1.62) for AYAs, 4.26 (95% CI, 3.77-4.80) for children, and 1.10 (95% CI, 1.09-1.11) for older adults, and the AERs were 22.9, 16.6, and 14.7, respectively. The cumulative incidence of SMN at 30 years was 13.9% for the AYA group. The most common SMNs in AYAs were breast cancer, gastrointestinal cancer, genital cancers, and melanoma. AYAs who had received radiation therapy had a higher cumulative incidence of SMN. AYAs who survive cancer for more than 5 years have a higher relative risk of SMN compared with the general population and have a higher absolute risk of SMN compared with younger or older cancer survivors. © 2015 American Cancer Society.

Graphs to estimate an individualized risk of breast cancer.

PubMed

Benichou, J; Gail, M H; Mulvihill, J J

1996-01-01

Clinicians who counsel women about their risk for developing breast cancer need a rapid method to estimate individualized risk (absolute risk), as well as the confidence limits around that point. The Breast Cancer Detection Demonstration Project (BCDDP) model (sometimes called the Gail model) assumes no genetic model and simultaneously incorporates five risk factors, but involves cumbersome calculations and interpolations. This report provides graphs to estimate the absolute risk of breast cancer from the BCDDP model. The BCDDP recruited 280,000 women from 1973 to 1980 who were monitored for 5 years. From this cohort, 2,852 white women developed breast cancer and 3,146 controls were selected, all with complete risk-factor information. The BCDDP model, previously developed from these data, was used to prepare graphs that relate a specific summary relative-risk estimate to the absolute risk of developing breast cancer over intervals of 10, 20, and 30 years. Once a summary relative risk is calculated, the appropriate graph is chosen that shows the 10-, 20-, or 30-year absolute risk of developing breast cancer. A separate graph gives the 95% confidence limits around the point estimate of absolute risk. Once a clinician rules out a single gene trait that predisposes to breast cancer and elicits information on age and four risk factors, the tables and figures permit an estimation of a women's absolute risk of developing breast cancer in the next three decades. These results are intended to be applied to women who undergo regular screening. They should be used only in a formal counseling program to maximize a woman's understanding of the estimates and the proper use of them.

Estimating the asbestos-related lung cancer burden from mesothelioma mortality

PubMed Central

McCormack, V; Peto, J; Byrnes, G; Straif, K; Boffetta, P

2012-01-01

Background: Quantifying the asbestos-related lung cancer burden is difficult in the presence of this disease's multiple causes. We explore two methods to estimate this burden using mesothelioma deaths as a proxy for asbestos exposure. Methods: From the follow-up of 55 asbestos cohorts, we estimated ratios of (i) absolute number of asbestos-related lung cancers to mesothelioma deaths; (ii) excess lung cancer relative risk (%) to mesothelioma mortality per 1000 non-asbestos-related deaths. Results: Ratios varied by asbestos type; there were a mean 0.7 (95% confidence interval 0.5, 1.0) asbestos-related lung cancers per mesothelioma death in crocidolite cohorts (n=6 estimates), 6.1 (3.6, 10.5) in chrysotile (n=16), 4.0 (2.8, 5.9) in amosite (n=4) and 1.9 (1.4, 2.6) in mixed asbestos fibre cohorts (n=31). In a population with 2 mesothelioma deaths per 1000 deaths at ages 40–84 years (e.g., US men), the estimated lung cancer population attributable fraction due to mixed asbestos was estimated to be 4.0%. Conclusion: All types of asbestos fibres kill at least twice as many people through lung cancer than through mesothelioma, except for crocidolite. For chrysotile, widely consumed today, asbestos-related lung cancers cannot be robustly estimated from few mesothelioma deaths and the latter cannot be used to infer no excess risk of lung or other cancers. PMID:22233924

Impact of aortic valve calcification, as measured by MDCT, on survival in patients with aortic stenosis: results of an international registry study.

PubMed

Clavel, Marie-Annick; Pibarot, Philippe; Messika-Zeitoun, David; Capoulade, Romain; Malouf, Joseph; Aggarval, Shivani; Araoz, Phillip A; Michelena, Hector I; Cueff, Caroline; Larose, Eric; Miller, Jordan D; Vahanian, Alec; Enriquez-Sarano, Maurice

2014-09-23

Aortic valve calcification (AVC) load measures lesion severity in aortic stenosis (AS) and is useful for diagnostic purposes. Whether AVC predicts survival after diagnosis, independent of clinical and Doppler echocardiographic AS characteristics, has not been studied. This study evaluated the impact of AVC load, absolute and relative to aortic annulus size (AVCdensity), on overall mortality in patients with AS under conservative treatment and without regard to treatment. In 3 academic centers, we enrolled 794 patients (mean age, 73 ± 12 years; 274 women) diagnosed with AS by Doppler echocardiography who underwent multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) within the same episode of care. Absolute AVC load and AVCdensity (ratio of absolute AVC to cross-sectional area of aortic annulus) were measured, and severe AVC was separately defined in men and women. During follow-up, there were 440 aortic valve implantations (AVIs) and 194 deaths (115 under medical treatment). Univariate analysis showed strong association of absolute AVC and AVCdensity with survival (both, p < 0.0001) with a spline curve analysis pattern of threshold and plateau of risk. After adjustment for age, sex, coronary artery disease, diabetes, symptoms, AS severity on hemodynamic assessment, and LV ejection fraction, severe absolute AVC (adjusted hazard ratio [HR]: 1.75; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.04 to 2.92; p = 0.03) or severe AVCdensity (adjusted HR: 2.44; 95% CI: 1.37 to 4.37; p = 0.002) independently predicted mortality under medical treatment, with additive model predictive value (all, p ≤ 0.04) and a net reclassification index of 12.5% (p = 0.04). Severe absolute AVC (adjusted HR: 1.71; 95% CI: 1.12 to 2.62; p = 0.01) and severe AVCdensity (adjusted HR: 2.22; 95% CI: 1.40 to 3.52; p = 0.001) also independently predicted overall mortality, even with adjustment for time-dependent AVI. This large-scale, multicenter outcomes study of quantitative Doppler echocardiographic and MDCT assessment of AS shows that measuring AVC load provides incremental prognostic value for survival beyond clinical and Doppler echocardiographic assessment. Severe AVC independently predicts excess mortality after AS diagnosis, which is greatly alleviated by AVI. Thus, measurement of AVC by MDCT should be considered for not only diagnostic but also risk-stratification purposes in patients with AS. Copyright © 2014 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Absolute measurement of the Hugoniot and sound velocity of liquid copper at multimegabar pressures

DOE PAGES

McCoy, Chad August; Knudson, Marcus David; Root, Seth

2017-11-13

Measurement of the Hugoniot and sound velocity provides information on the bulk modulus and Grüneisen parameter of a material at extreme conditions. The capability to launch multilayered (copper/aluminum) flyer plates at velocities in excess of 20 km/s with the Sandia Z accelerator has enabled high-precision sound-velocity measurements at previously inaccessible pressures. For these experiments, the sound velocity of the copper flyer must be accurately known in the multi-Mbar regime. Here we describe the development of copper as an absolutely calibrated sound-velocity standard for high-precision measurements at pressures in excess of 400 GPa. Using multilayered flyer plates, we performed absolute measurementsmore » of the Hugoniot and sound velocity of copper for pressures from 500 to 1200 GPa. These measurements enabled the determination of the Grüneisen parameter for dense liquid copper, clearly showing a density dependence above the melt transition. As a result, combined with earlier data at lower pressures, these results constrain the sound velocity as a function of pressure, enabling the use of copper as a Hugoniot and sound-velocity standard for pressures up to 1200 GPa.« less

Absolute measurement of the Hugoniot and sound velocity of liquid copper at multimegabar pressures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McCoy, Chad August; Knudson, Marcus David; Root, Seth

Measurement of the Hugoniot and sound velocity provides information on the bulk modulus and Grüneisen parameter of a material at extreme conditions. The capability to launch multilayered (copper/aluminum) flyer plates at velocities in excess of 20 km/s with the Sandia Z accelerator has enabled high-precision sound-velocity measurements at previously inaccessible pressures. For these experiments, the sound velocity of the copper flyer must be accurately known in the multi-Mbar regime. Here we describe the development of copper as an absolutely calibrated sound-velocity standard for high-precision measurements at pressures in excess of 400 GPa. Using multilayered flyer plates, we performed absolute measurementsmore » of the Hugoniot and sound velocity of copper for pressures from 500 to 1200 GPa. These measurements enabled the determination of the Grüneisen parameter for dense liquid copper, clearly showing a density dependence above the melt transition. As a result, combined with earlier data at lower pressures, these results constrain the sound velocity as a function of pressure, enabling the use of copper as a Hugoniot and sound-velocity standard for pressures up to 1200 GPa.« less

Second primary malignancies in chronic myeloid leukemia.

PubMed

Shah, Binay Kumar; Ghimire, Krishna Bilas

2014-12-01

Survival of patients with chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) has improved with the use of imatinib and other tyrosine kinase inhibitors. There is limited data on second primary malignancies (SPM) in CML. We analyzed the SPMs rates among CML patients reported to Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database during pre-(1992-2000) and post-(2002-2009) era. We used SEER Multiple Primary-Standardized Incidence Ratio session to calculate standardized incidence ratios (SIRs). Among 8,511 adult CML patients, 446 patients developed 473 SPMs. The SIR for SPMs in CML patients was significantly higher with observed/expected ratio:1.27, P < 0.05 and absolute excess risk of 32.09 per 10,000 person years compared to general population. The rate of SPMs for cancers of all sites in post-imatinib era were significantly higher compared to pre-imatinib era with observed/expected ratio of 1.48 versus 1.06, P = 0.03. This study showed that risk of SPMs is higher among CML patients. The risk of SPMs is significantly higher in post-imatinib era compared to pre-imatinib era.

Postprandial and basal hyperglycaemia in type 2 diabetes: Contributions to overall glucose exposure and diabetic complications.

PubMed

Monnier, L; Colette, C

2015-12-01

Both postprandial and fasting (basal) hyperglycaemia contribute to overall hyperglycaemia (ambient hyperglycaemia) in type 2 diabetes (T2D). Postprandial glucose is the main contributor in fairly well controlled individuals, whereas basal hyperglycaemia becomes the preponderant contributor in poorly controlled patients. A more generally acceptable description of the contribution of postprandial glucose is to simply say that the absolute impact of postprandial glucose to HbA1c remains constant at approximately 1% across the entire HbA1c spectrum of non-insulin-treated patients with T2D. While epidemiological and pathophysiological studies seem to indicate that excessive postprandial glucose excursions play a role in or are predictors of cardiovascular diseases, there is still currently a lack of clinical evidence that correcting post-meal hyperglycaemia can improve clinical outcomes. However, even in the absence of consensus, there are many reasons for thinking that excessive postprandial glucose might be an independent risk factor for diabetic complications as it contributes to both overall glucose exposure and glycaemic variability, especially in those who have HbA1c levels < 7.5-8%. Given that excessive glucose fluctuations from peaks to nadirs activate oxidative stress, it seems reasonable to consider that a key player in the pathogenesis of diabetic complications, according to the latest IDF guidelines, is post-meal glucose, thereby warranting its assessment and treatment when found at abnormally elevated levels. Nevertheless, healthcare professionals should bear in mind that targeting both post-meal and basal plasma glucose, giving equal consideration to both of them, is probably the best strategy for achieving optimal glycaemic control and thus preventing or reducing the risk of diabetic complications. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

The risk of radiation-induced second cancers in the high to medium dose region: a comparison between passive and scanned proton therapy, IMRT and VMAT for pediatric patients with brain tumors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moteabbed, Maryam; Yock, Torunn I.; Paganetti, Harald

2014-06-01

The incidence of second malignant tumors is a clinically observed adverse late effect of radiation therapy, especially in organs close to the treatment site, receiving medium to high doses (>2.5 Gy). For pediatric patients, choosing the least toxic radiation modality is of utmost importance, due to their high radiosensitivity and small size. This study aims to evaluate the risk of second cancer incidence in the vicinity of the primary radiation field, for pediatric patients with brain/head and neck tumors and compare four treatment modalities: passive scattering and pencil beam scanning proton therapy (PPT and PBS), intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) and volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT). For a cohort of six pediatric patients originally treated with PPT, additional PBS, IMRT and VMAT plans were created. Dose distributions from these plans were used to calculate the excess absolute risk (EAR) and lifetime attributable risk (LAR) for developing a second tumor in soft tissue and skull. A widely used risk assessment formalism was employed and compared with a linear model based on recent clinical findings. In general, LAR was found to range between 0.01%-2.8% for PPT/PBS and 0.04%-4.9% for IMRT/VMAT. PBS was associated with the lowest risk for most patients using carcinoma and sarcoma models, whereas IMRT and VMAT risks were comparable and the highest among all modalities. The LAR for IMRT/VMAT relative to PPT ranged from 1.3-4.6 for soft tissue and from 3.5-9.5 for skull. Larger absolute LAR was observed for younger patients and using linear risk models. The number of fields used in proton therapy and IMRT had minimal effect on the risk. When planning treatments and deciding on the treatment modality, the probability of second cancer incidence should be carefully examined and weighed against the possibility of developing acute side effects for each patient individually.

[Shiftwork. Impact on health and safety in the working environment].

PubMed

Garbarino, S

2006-01-01

Biological rhythms are highly disrupted by night shiftwork (NSW), and any perturbation of social and family life negatively affects performance efficiency, health and social relations. These undesirable aspects have acute and chronic components. The effects manifest themselves not only as increased accidents' frequency, but also as sleep disturbances, excessive daytime sleepiness, psychosomatic disorders that may variously interact to configure a "shift-lag" syndrome, with acute and chronic manifestation. Chronic effects increase the risk of psychoneurotic, cardiovascular and gastrointestinal diseases. The effects of NSW on women are much more pronounced because of their reproductive function and family obligations. Recent Italian legislation (1999, 2003) on night-work has essentially recognised it as a new risk factor and has established that workers' health should be safeguarded through preventive check-ups and regular controls by occupational health physicians. This involves that now occupational health physicians are required to inform workers on coping strategies, and carefully assess health disorders with absolute or relative contraindications. Data from international literature and from our group production are revised and discussed.

Integration of second cancer risk calculations in a radiotherapy treatment planning system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartmann, M.; Schneider, U.

2014-03-01

Second cancer risk in patients, in particular in children, who were treated with radiotherapy is an important side effect. It should be minimized by selecting an appropriate treatment plan for the patient. The objectives of this study were to integrate a risk model for radiation induced cancer into a treatment planning system which allows to judge different treatment plans with regard to second cancer induction and to quantify the potential reduction in predicted risk. A model for radiation induced cancer including fractionation effects which is valid for doses in the radiotherapy range was integrated into a treatment planning system. From the three-dimensional (3D) dose distribution the 3D-risk equivalent dose (RED) was calculated on an organ specific basis. In addition to RED further risk coefficients like OED (organ equivalent dose), EAR (excess absolute risk) and LAR (lifetime attributable risk) are computed. A risk model for radiation induced cancer was successfully integrated in a treatment planning system. Several risk coefficients can be viewed and used to obtain critical situations were a plan can be optimised. Risk-volume-histograms and organ specific risks were calculated for different treatment plans and were used in combination with NTCP estimates for plan evaluation. It is concluded that the integration of second cancer risk estimates in a commercial treatment planning system is feasible. It can be used in addition to NTCP modelling for optimising treatment plans which result in the lowest possible second cancer risk for a patient.

Socioeconomic inequalities in cause specific mortality among older people in France.

PubMed

Menvielle, Gwenn; Leclerc, Annette; Chastang, Jean-François; Luce, Danièle

2010-05-19

European comparative studies documented a clear North-South divide in socioeconomic inequalities with cancer being the most important contributor to inequalities in total mortality among middle aged men in Latin Europe (France, Spain, Portugal, Italy). The aim of this paper is to investigate educational inequalities in mortality by gender, age and causes of death in France, with a special emphasis on people aged 75 years and more. We used data from a longitudinal population sample that includes 1% of the French population. Risk of death (total and cause specific) in the period 1990-1999 according to education was analysed using Cox regression models by age group (45-59, 60-74, and 75+). Inequalities were quantified using both relative (ratio) and absolute (difference) measures. Relative inequalities decreased with age but were still observed in the oldest age group. Absolute inequalities increased with age. This increase was particularly pronounced for cardiovascular diseases. The contribution of different causes of death to absolute inequalities in total mortality differed between age groups. In particular, the contribution of cancer deaths decreased substantially between the age groups 60-74 years and 75 years and more, both in men and in women. This study suggests that the large contribution of cancer deaths to the excess mortality among low educated people that was observed among middle aged men in Latin Europe is not observed among French people aged 75 years and more. This should be confirmed among other Latin Europe countries.

Weight Outcomes of Latino Adults and Children Participating in the Y Living Program, a Family-Focused Lifestyle Intervention, San Antonio, 2012-2013.

PubMed

Parra-Medina, Deborah; Liang, Yuanyuan; Yin, Zenong; Esparza, Laura; Lopez, Louis

2015-12-10

US Latinos have disproportionately higher rates of obesity and physical inactivity than the general US population, putting them at greater risk for chronic disease. This evaluation aimed to examine the impact of the Y Living Program (Y Living), a 12-week family-focused healthy lifestyle program, on the weight status of adult and child (aged ≥7 years) participants. In this pretest-posttest evaluation, participants attended twice-weekly group education sessions and engaged in physical activity at least 3 times per week. Primary outcome measures were body mass index ([BMI], zBMI and BMI percentile for children), weight, waist circumference, and percentage body fat. Wilcoxon signed-rank tests and mixed effects models were used to evaluate pretest-posttest differences (ie, absolute change and relative change) for adults and children separately. BMI, weight, waist circumference, and percentage body fat improved significantly (both absolutely and relatively) among adults who completed the program (n = 180; all P ≤ .001). Conversely, child participants that completed the program (n = 72) showed no improvements. Intervention effects varied across subgroups. Among adults, women and participants who were obese at baseline had larger improvements than did children who were obese at baseline or who were in families that had an annual household income of $15,000 or more. Significant improvements in weight were observed among adult participants but not children. This family-focused intervention has potential to prevent excess weight gain among high-risk Latino families.

Epidermal hydrogen peroxide is not increased in lesional and non-lesional skin of vitiligo.

PubMed

Zailaie, Mohammad Z

2017-01-01

It is widely believed that the loss of the epidermal melanocytes in vitiligo is basically due to excessive oxidative stress. Previous research work described abnormal elevation of the absolute concentration of the epidermal hydrogen peroxide (H 2 O 2 ) in lesional and non-lesional skin of vitiligo. Based on this finding, our primary research objective was to use this feature as a screening marker in individuals at a great risk of developing vitiligo. Ninety-six patients of non-segmental vitiligo (NSV) of varying durations, skin phototypes, and treatment modalities (psoralen UVA-, narrow band UVB-treated) were recruited for this study. Raman spectroscopic measurements, using an external probehead, of the lesional and non-lesional skin were obtained, and the resulting spectra were analyzed using the Opus software package of the MultiRam spectrometer and the intensity of the peak at 875 cm -1 that represents the absolute concentration of H 2 O 2 was calculated. Contrary to previous reports, in patients of skin phototype IV, the absolute concentrations of H 2 O 2 in non-lesional and lesional NSV of all groups were non-significantly decreased compared to normal control. In patients of NSV of skin phototype V, the decrease in the absolute concentrations of H 2 O 2 was not significant in the untreated group, and a slight non-significant increase in the NBUVB-treated group was noted. However, in the PUVA-treated group, the non-lesional skin demonstrated significant increase in the absolute concentration of H 2 O 2 , whereas the lesional skin showed only a slight non-significant increase compared to normal control. In NSV patients of skin phototype VI who were previously treated with PUVA, the non-lesional skin showed a slight non-significant increase in the absolute concentration of H 2 O 2 ; however, the lesional skin showed a marked significant decrease compared to normal control and the non-lesional skin. Thereof, one can conclude that the epidermal H 2 O 2 is not increased in NSV as previously thought and may not be responsible for the oxidative stress that leads to the melanocytes destruction, the hallmark of vitiligo pathogenesis.

Mammographic Density Phenotypes and Risk of Breast Cancer: A Meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Graff, Rebecca E.; Ursin, Giske; dos Santos Silva, Isabel; McCormack, Valerie; Baglietto, Laura; Vachon, Celine; Bakker, Marije F.; Giles, Graham G.; Chia, Kee Seng; Czene, Kamila; Eriksson, Louise; Hall, Per; Hartman, Mikael; Warren, Ruth M. L.; Hislop, Greg; Chiarelli, Anna M.; Hopper, John L.; Krishnan, Kavitha; Li, Jingmei; Li, Qing; Pagano, Ian; Rosner, Bernard A.; Wong, Chia Siong; Scott, Christopher; Stone, Jennifer; Maskarinec, Gertraud; Boyd, Norman F.; van Gils, Carla H.

2014-01-01

Background Fibroglandular breast tissue appears dense on mammogram, whereas fat appears nondense. It is unclear whether absolute or percentage dense area more strongly predicts breast cancer risk and whether absolute nondense area is independently associated with risk. Methods We conducted a meta-analysis of 13 case–control studies providing results from logistic regressions for associations between one standard deviation (SD) increments in mammographic density phenotypes and breast cancer risk. We used random-effects models to calculate pooled odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). All tests were two-sided with P less than .05 considered to be statistically significant. Results Among premenopausal women (n = 1776 case patients; n = 2834 control subjects), summary odds ratios were 1.37 (95% CI = 1.29 to 1.47) for absolute dense area, 0.78 (95% CI = 0.71 to 0.86) for absolute nondense area, and 1.52 (95% CI = 1.39 to 1.66) for percentage dense area when pooling estimates adjusted for age, body mass index, and parity. Corresponding odds ratios among postmenopausal women (n = 6643 case patients; n = 11187 control subjects) were 1.38 (95% CI = 1.31 to 1.44), 0.79 (95% CI = 0.73 to 0.85), and 1.53 (95% CI = 1.44 to 1.64). After additional adjustment for absolute dense area, associations between absolute nondense area and breast cancer became attenuated or null in several studies and summary odds ratios became 0.82 (95% CI = 0.71 to 0.94; P heterogeneity = .02) for premenopausal and 0.85 (95% CI = 0.75 to 0.96; P heterogeneity < .01) for postmenopausal women. Conclusions The results suggest that percentage dense area is a stronger breast cancer risk factor than absolute dense area. Absolute nondense area was inversely associated with breast cancer risk, but it is unclear whether the association is independent of absolute dense area. PMID:24816206

The Distinct Role of Comparative Risk Perceptions in a Breast Cancer Prevention Program

PubMed Central

Dillard, Amanda J.; Ubel, Peter A.; Smith, Dylan M.; Zikmund-Fisher, Brian J.; Nair, Vijay; Derry, Holly A.; Zhang, Aijun; Pitsch, Rosemarie K.; Alford, Sharon Hensley; McClure, Jennifer B.; Fagerlin, Angela

2013-01-01

Background Comparative risk perceptions may rival other types of information in terms of effects on health behavior decisions. Purpose We examined associations between comparative risk perceptions, affect, and behavior while controlling for absolute risk perceptions and actual risk. Methods Women at an increased risk of breast cancer participated in a program to learn about tamoxifen which can reduce the risk of breast cancer. Women reported comparative risk perceptions of breast cancer and completed measures of anxiety, knowledge, and tamoxifen-related behavior intentions. Three months later, women reported their behavior. Results Comparative risk perceptions were positively correlated with anxiety, knowledge, intentions, and behavior three months later. After controlling for participants’ actual risk of breast cancer and absolute risk perceptions, comparative risk perceptions predicted anxiety and knowledge, but not intentions or behavior. Conclusions Comparative risk perceptions can affect patient outcomes like anxiety and knowledge independently of absolute risk perceptions and actual risk information. PMID:21698518

Long-term inpatient disease burden in the Adult Life after Childhood Cancer in Scandinavia (ALiCCS) study: A cohort study of 21,297 childhood cancer survivors

PubMed Central

Rugbjerg, Kathrine; Bonnesen, Trine G.; Holmqvist, Anna Sällfors; Madanat-Harjuoja, Laura; Wesenberg, Finn; Winther, Jeanette F.

2017-01-01

Background Survivors of childhood cancer are at increased risk for a wide range of late effects. However, no large population-based studies have included the whole range of somatic diagnoses including subgroup diagnoses and all main types of childhood cancers. Therefore, we aimed to provide the most detailed overview of the long-term risk of hospitalisation in survivors of childhood cancer. Methods and findings From the national cancer registers of Denmark, Finland, Iceland, and Sweden, we identified 21,297 5-year survivors of childhood cancer diagnosed with cancer before the age of 20 years in the periods 1943–2008 in Denmark, 1971–2008 in Finland, 1955–2008 in Iceland, and 1958–2008 in Sweden. We randomly selected 152,231 population comparison individuals matched by age, sex, year, and country (or municipality in Sweden) from the national population registers. Using a cohort design, study participants were followed in the national hospital registers in Denmark, 1977–2010; Finland, 1975–2012; Iceland, 1999–2008; and Sweden, 1968–2009. Disease-specific hospitalisation rates in survivors and comparison individuals were used to calculate survivors’ standardised hospitalisation rate ratios (RRs), absolute excess risks (AERs), and standardised bed day ratios (SBDRs) based on length of stay in hospital. We adjusted for sex, age, and year by indirect standardisation. During 336,554 person-years of follow-up (mean: 16 years; range: 0–42 years), childhood cancer survivors experienced 21,325 first hospitalisations for diseases in one or more of 120 disease categories (cancer recurrence not included), when 10,999 were expected, yielding an overall RR of 1.94 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.91–1.97). The AER was 3,068 (2,980–3,156) per 100,000 person-years, meaning that for each additional year of follow-up, an average of 3 of 100 survivors were hospitalised for a new excess disease beyond the background rates. Approximately 50% of the excess hospitalisations were for diseases of the nervous system (19.1% of all excess hospitalisations), endocrine system (11.1%), digestive organs (10.5%), and respiratory system (10.0%). Survivors of all types of childhood cancer were at increased, persistent risk for subsequent hospitalisation, the highest risks being those of survivors of neuroblastoma (RR: 2.6 [2.4–2.8]; n = 876), hepatic tumours (RR: 2.5 [2.0–3.1]; n = 92), central nervous system tumours (RR: 2.4 [2.3–2.5]; n = 6,175), and Hodgkin lymphoma (RR: 2.4 [2.3–2.5]; n = 2,027). Survivors spent on average five times as many days in hospital as comparison individuals (SBDR: 4.96 [4.94–4.98]; n = 422,218). The analyses of bed days in hospital included new primary cancers and recurrences. Of the total 422,218 days survivors spent in hospital, 47% (197,596 bed days) were for new primary cancers and recurrences. Our study is likely to underestimate the absolute overall disease burden experienced by survivors, as less severe late effects are missed if they are treated sufficiently in the outpatient setting or in the primary health care system. Conclusions Childhood cancer survivors were at increased long-term risk for diseases requiring inpatient treatment even decades after their initial cancer. Health care providers who do not work in the area of late effects, especially those in primary health care, should be aware of this highly challenged group of patients in order to avoid or postpone hospitalisations by prevention, early detection, and appropriate treatments. PMID:28486495

Absolute cardiovascular risk in a Fiji medical zone.

PubMed

Gyaneshwar, Rajat; Naidu, Swaran; Raban, Magdalena Z; Naidu, Sheetal; Linhart, Christine; Morrell, Stephen; Tukana, Isimeli; Taylor, Richard

2016-02-09

The population of Fiji has experienced emergence of non-communicable disease (NCD) and a plateau in life expectancy over the past 20 years. A mini-STEPS survey (n = 2765) was conducted in Viseisei in Western Fiji to assess NCD risk factors (RFs) in i-Taukei (Melanesians) and those of Indian descent aged 25-64 years (response 73 %). Hypertension (HT) was defined as systolic blood pressure (BP) ≥140 mmHg or diastolic BP ≥90 mmHg or on medication for HT; type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) as fasting plasma glucose ≥7.0 mmol/L or on medication for T2DM; and obesity as a body mass index (kilograms/height(metres)(2)) ≥30. Data were age-adjusted to 2007 Fiji Census. Associations between RFs and ethnicity/education were investigated. Comparisons with Fiji STEPS surveys were undertaken, and the absolute risk of a cardiovascular disease (CVD) event/death in 10 years was estimated from multiple RF charts. NCD/RFs increased with age except excessive alcohol intake and daily smoking (women) which declined. Daily smoking was higher in men 33 % (95 % confidence interval: 31-36) than women 14 % (12-116); women were more obese 40 % (37-43) than men 23 % (20-26); HT was similar in men 37 % (34-40) and women 34 % (31-36), as was T2DM in men 15 % (13-17) and women 17 % (15-19). i-Taukei men had an odds ratio (OR) of 0.41 (0.28-0.58) for T2DM compared to Indians (1.00); and i-Taukei (both sexes) had a higher OR for obesity and low fruit/vegetable intake, daily smoking, excessive alcohol intake and HT in females. Increasing education correlated with lesser smoking, but with higher obesity and lower fruit/vegetable intake. Compared to the 2011 Fiji STEPS survey, no significant differences were evident in obesity, HT or T2DM prevalences. The proportion (40-64 years) classified at high or very high risk (≥20 %) of a CVD event/death (over 10 years) based on multiple RFs was 8.3 % for men (8.1 % i-Taukei, 8.5 % Indian), and 6.7 % for women (7.9 % i-Taukei, 6.0 % Indian). The results of the survey highlight the need for individual and community interventions to address the high levels of NCD/RFs. Evaluation of interventions is needed in order to inform NCD control policies in Fiji and other Pacific Island nations.

High energy electron acceleration with PW-class laser system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakanii, N.; Kondo, K.; Mori, Y.; Miura, E.; Yabuuchi, T.; Tsuji, K.; Suzuki, S.; Asaka, T.; Yanagida, K.; Hanaki, H.; Kobayashi, T.; Makino, K.; Yamane, T.; Miyamoto, S.; Horikawa, K.; Kimura, K.; Takeda, K.; Fukumochi, S.; Kashihara, M.; Tanimoto, T.; Nakamura, H.; Ishikura, T.; Tampo, M.; Kodama, R.; Kitagawa, Y.; Mima, K.; Tanaka, K. A.

2008-06-01

We performed electron acceleration experiment with PW-class laser and a plasma tube, which was created by imploding a hollow polystyrene cylinder. In this experiment, electron energies in excess of 600 MeV have been observed. Moreover, the spectra of a comparatively high-density plasma ˜1019 cm-3 had a bump around 10 MeV. Additionally, we performed the absolute sensitivity calibration of imaging plate for 1 GeV electrons from the injector Linac of Spring-8 in order to evaluate absolute number of GeV-class electrons in the laser acceleration experiment.

[Estimation of the excess of lung cancer mortality risk associated to environmental tobacco smoke exposure of hospitality workers].

PubMed

López, M José; Nebot, Manel; Juárez, Olga; Ariza, Carles; Salles, Joan; Serrahima, Eulàlia

2006-01-14

To estimate the excess lung cancer mortality risk associated with environmental tobacco (ETS) smoke exposure among hospitality workers. The estimation was done using objective measures in several hospitality settings in Barcelona. Vapour phase nicotine was measured in several hospitality settings. These measurements were used to estimate the excess lung cancer mortality risk associated with ETS exposure for a 40 year working life, using the formula developed by Repace and Lowrey. Excess lung cancer mortality risk associated with ETS exposure was higher than 145 deaths per 100,000 workers in all places studied, except for cafeterias in hospitals, where excess lung cancer mortality risk was 22 per 100,000. In discoteques, for comparison, excess lung cancer mortality risk is 1,733 deaths per 100,000 workers. Hospitality workers are exposed to ETS levels related to a very high excess lung cancer mortality risk. These data confirm that ETS control measures are needed to protect hospital workers.

Effect of radiotherapy after breast-conserving surgery on 10-year recurrence and 15-year breast cancer death: meta-analysis of individual patient data for 10,801 women in 17 randomised trials.

PubMed

Darby, S; McGale, P; Correa, C; Taylor, C; Arriagada, R; Clarke, M; Cutter, D; Davies, C; Ewertz, M; Godwin, J; Gray, R; Pierce, L; Whelan, T; Wang, Y; Peto, R

2011-11-12

After breast-conserving surgery, radiotherapy reduces recurrence and breast cancer death, but it may do so more for some groups of women than for others. We describe the absolute magnitude of these reductions according to various prognostic and other patient characteristics, and relate the absolute reduction in 15-year risk of breast cancer death to the absolute reduction in 10-year recurrence risk. We undertook a meta-analysis of individual patient data for 10,801 women in 17 randomised trials of radiotherapy versus no radiotherapy after breast-conserving surgery, 8337 of whom had pathologically confirmed node-negative (pN0) or node-positive (pN+) disease. Overall, radiotherapy reduced the 10-year risk of any (ie, locoregional or distant) first recurrence from 35·0% to 19·3% (absolute reduction 15·7%, 95% CI 13·7-17·7, 2p<0·00001) and reduced the 15-year risk of breast cancer death from 25·2% to 21·4% (absolute reduction 3·8%, 1·6-6·0, 2p=0·00005). In women with pN0 disease (n=7287), radiotherapy reduced these risks from 31·0% to 15·6% (absolute recurrence reduction 15·4%, 13·2-17·6, 2p<0·00001) and from 20·5% to 17·2% (absolute mortality reduction 3·3%, 0·8-5·8, 2p=0·005), respectively. In these women with pN0 disease, the absolute recurrence reduction varied according to age, grade, oestrogen-receptor status, tamoxifen use, and extent of surgery, and these characteristics were used to predict large (≥20%), intermediate (10-19%), or lower (<10%) absolute reductions in the 10-year recurrence risk. Absolute reductions in 15-year risk of breast cancer death in these three prediction categories were 7·8% (95% CI 3·1-12·5), 1·1% (-2·0 to 4·2), and 0·1% (-7·5 to 7·7) respectively (trend in absolute mortality reduction 2p=0·03). In the few women with pN+ disease (n=1050), radiotherapy reduced the 10-year recurrence risk from 63·7% to 42·5% (absolute reduction 21·2%, 95% CI 14·5-27·9, 2p<0·00001) and the 15-year risk of breast cancer death from 51·3% to 42·8% (absolute reduction 8·5%, 1·8-15·2, 2p=0·01). Overall, about one breast cancer death was avoided by year 15 for every four recurrences avoided by year 10, and the mortality reduction did not differ significantly from this overall relationship in any of the three prediction categories for pN0 disease or for pN+ disease. After breast-conserving surgery, radiotherapy to the conserved breast halves the rate at which the disease recurs and reduces the breast cancer death rate by about a sixth. These proportional benefits vary little between different groups of women. By contrast, the absolute benefits from radiotherapy vary substantially according to the characteristics of the patient and they can be predicted at the time when treatment decisions need to be made. Cancer Research UK, British Heart Foundation, and UK Medical Research Council. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Radiation risk models for all solid cancers other than those types of cancer requiring individual assessments after a nuclear accident.

PubMed

Walsh, Linda; Zhang, Wei

2016-03-01

In the assessment of health risks after nuclear accidents, some health consequences require special attention. For example, in their 2013 report on health risk assessment after the Fukushima nuclear accident, the World Health Organisation (WHO) panel of experts considered risks of breast cancer, thyroid cancer and leukaemia. For these specific cancer types, use was made of already published excess relative risk (ERR) and excess absolute risk (EAR) models for radiation-related cancer incidence fitted to the epidemiological data from the Japanese A-bomb Life Span Study (LSS). However, it was also considered important to assess all other types of solid cancer together and the WHO, in their above-mentioned report, stated "No model to calculate the risk for all other solid cancer excluding breast and thyroid cancer risks is available from the LSS data". Applying the LSS models for all solid cancers along with the models for the specific sites means that some cancers have an overlap in the risk evaluations. Thus, calculating the total solid cancer risk plus the breast cancer risk plus the thyroid cancer risk can overestimate the total risk by several per cent. Therefore, the purpose of this paper was to publish the required models for all other solid cancers, i.e. all solid cancers other than those types of cancer requiring special attention after a nuclear accident. The new models presented here have been fitted to the same LSS data set from which the risks provided by the WHO were derived. Although it is known already that the EAR and ERR effect modifications by sex are statistically significant for the outcome "all solid cancer", it is shown here that sex modification is not statistically significant for the outcome "all solid cancer other than thyroid and breast cancer". It is also shown here that the sex-averaged solid cancer risks with and without the sex modification are very similar once breast and thyroid cancers are factored out. Some other notable model differences between those already published for all solid cancers and those presented here for all other solid cancers are also given here. The models presented here can be used to improve on the methodology adopted by WHO after Fukushima and could contribute to emergency preparedness for future nuclear accidents.

Risk factors affecting survival in heart transplant patients.

PubMed

Almenar, L; Cardo, M L; Martínez-Dolz, L; García-Palomar, C; Rueda, J; Zorio, E; Arnau, M A; Osa, A; Palencia, M

2005-11-01

Certain cardiovascular risk factors have been linked to morbidity and mortality in heart transplant (HT) patients. The sum of various risk factors may have a large cumulative negative effect, leading to a substantially worse prognosis and the need to consider whether HT is contraindicated. The objective of this study was to determine whether the risk factors usually available prior to HT result in an excess mortality in our setting that contraindicates transplantation. Consecutive patients who underwent heart transplantation from November 1987 to January 2004 were included. Heart-lung transplants, retransplants, and pediatric transplants were excluded. Of the 384 patients, 89% were men. Mean age was 52 years (range, 12 to 67). Underlying disease included ischemic heart disease (52%), idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy (36%), valvular disease (8%), and other (4%). Variables considered risk factors were obesity (BMI >25), dyslipidemia, hypertension, prior thoracic surgery, diabetes, and history of ischemic heart disease. Survival curves by number of risk factors using Kaplan-Meier and log-rank for comparison of curves. Overall patient survival at 1, 5, 10, and 13 years was 76%, 68%, 54%, and 47%, respectively. Survival at 10 years, if fewer than two risk factors were present, was 69%; 59% if two or three factors were present; and 37% if more than three associated risk factors were present (P = .04). The presence of certain risk factors in patients undergoing HT resulted in lower survival rates. The combination of various risk factors clearly worsened outcomes. However, we do not believe this should be an absolute contraindication for transplantation.

Spectrum of Cancer Risk among U.S. Solid Organ Transplant Recipients: The Transplant Cancer Match Study

PubMed Central

Engels, Eric A.; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.; Fraumeni, Joseph F.; Kasiske, Bertram L.; Israni, Ajay K.; Snyder, Jon J.; Wolfe, Robert A.; Goodrich, Nathan P.; Bayakly, A. Rana; Clarke, Christina A.; Copeland, Glenn; Finch, Jack L.; Fleissner, Mary Lou; Goodman, Marc T.; Kahn, Amy; Koch, Lori; Lynch, Charles F.; Madeleine, Margaret M.; Pawlish, Karen; Rao, Chandrika; Williams, Melanie A.; Castenson, David; Curry, Michael; Parsons, Ruth; Fant, Gregory; Lin, Monica

2012-01-01

Context Solid organ transplant recipients have elevated cancer risk due to immunosuppression and oncogenic viral infections. Since most prior research has concerned kidney recipients, large studies that include recipients of differing organs can inform cancer etiology. Objective Describe the overall pattern of cancer among solid organ transplant recipients. Design Cohort study using linked data from the U.S. Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (1987–2008) and 13 state/regional cancer registries. Participants and Setting Solid organ transplant recipients in the U.S. Main Outcome Measure Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) and excess absolute risks (EARs) assessing relative and absolute cancer risk in transplant recipients compared to the general population. Results Registry linkages yielded data on 175,732 solid organ transplants (58.4% kidney, 21.6% liver, 10.0% heart, 4.0% lung). Overall cancer risk was elevated (N=10,656 cases, incidence 1374.7 per 100,000 person-years; SIR 2.10, 95%CI 2.06–2.14; EAR 719.3, 95%CI 693.3–745.6, per 100,000 person-years). Risk was increased (p<0.001) for 32 different malignancies, some related to known infections (e.g., anal cancer, Kaposi sarcoma) and others unrelated (e.g., melanoma, thyroid and lip cancers). The most common malignancies with elevated risk were non-Hodgkin lymphoma (N=1504, incidence 194.0; SIR 7.54, 95%CI 7.17–7.93; EAR 168.3, 95%CI 158.6–178.4) and cancers of the lung (N=1344, incidence 173.4; SIR 1.97, 95%CI 1.86–2.08; EAR 85.3, 95%CI 76.2–94.8), liver (N=930, incidence 120.0; SIR 11.56, 95%CI 10.83–12.33; EAR 109.6, 95%CI 102.0–117.6), and kidney (N=752, incidence 97.0; SIR 4.65, 95%CI 4.32–4.99; EAR 76.1, 95%CI 69.3–83.3). Lung cancer risk was most elevated in lung recipients (SIR 6.13, 95%CI 5.18–7.21) but also increased among other recipients (SIR 1.46, 95%CI 1.34–1.59 for kidney; 1.95, 1.74–2.19 for liver; 2.67, 2.40–2.95 for heart). Liver cancer was elevated only among liver recipients (SIR 43.83, 95%CI 40.90–46.91), who manifested exceptional risk in the first 6 months (SIR 508.97, 95%CI 474.16–545.66) and continuing two-fold excess for 10–15 years (SIR 2.22, 95%CI 1.57–3.04). Among kidney recipients, kidney cancer was elevated (SIR 6.66, 95%CI 6.12–7.23) and bimodal in onset. Kidney cancer was also increased in liver and heart recipients (SIR 1.80, 95%CI 1.40–2.29, and 2.90, 2.32–3.59, respectively). Conclusions Recipients of a kidney, liver, heart, or lung transplant have an increased risk for diverse infection-related and unrelated cancers, compared with the general population. PMID:22045767

Somatic late effects in 5-year survivors of neuroblastoma: A population-based cohort study within the Adult Life after Childhood Cancer in Scandinavia (ALiCCS) study.

PubMed

Norsker, Filippa Nyboe; Rechnitzer, Catherine; Cederkvist, Luise; Tryggvadottir, Laufey; Madanat-Harjuoja, Laura-Maria; Øra, Ingrid; Thorarinsdottir, Halldora K; Vettenranta, Kim; Bautz, Andrea; Schrøder, Henrik; Hasle, Henrik; Winther, Jeanette Falck

2018-06-21

Because of the rarity of neuroblastoma and poor survival until the 1990s, information on late effects in neuroblastoma survivors is sparse. We comprehensively reviewed the long-term risk for somatic disease in neuroblastoma survivors. We identified 721 5-year survivors of neuroblastoma in Nordic population-based cancer registries and identified late effects in national hospital registries covering the period 1977-2012. Detailed treatment information was available for 46% of the survivors. The disease-specific rates of hospitalization of survivors and of 152,231 randomly selected population comparisons were used to calculate standardized hospitalization rate ratios (SHRRs) and absolute excess risks (AERs). During 5,500 person-years of follow-up, 501 5-year survivors had a first hospital contact yielding a SHRR of 2.3 (95% CI 2.1-2.6) and a corresponding AER of 52 (95% CI 44-60) per 1,000 person-years. The highest relative risks were for diseases of blood and blood-forming organs (SHRR 3.8; 95% CI 2.7-5.4), endocrine diseases (3.6 [3.1-4.2]), circulatory system diseases (3.1 [2.5-3.8]), and diseases of the nervous system (3.0 [2.6-3.3]). Approximately 60% of the excess new hospitalizations of survivors were for diseases of the nervous system, urinary system, endocrine system, and bone and soft tissue. The relative risks and AERs were highest for the survivors most intensively treated. Survivors of neuroblastoma have a highly increased long-term risk for somatic late effects in all the main disease groups as compared with background levels. Our results are useful for counseling survivors and should contribute to improving health care planning in post-therapy clinics. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. © 2018 UICC.

A randomized trial of decision-making in asymptomatic carotid stenosis.

PubMed

Silver, B; Zaman, I F; Ashraf, K; Majed, Y; Norwood, E M; Schuh, L A; Smith, B J; Smith, R E; Schultz, L R

2012-01-31

We sought to evaluate whether different presentation formats, presenter characteristics, and patient characteristics affect decision-making in asymptomatic carotid stenosis. Subjects included individuals presenting to a neurology clinic. Participants included those over age 18 without known carotid stenosis. Subjects were randomized to a 30-second video with 1 of 5 presentation formats (absolute risk, absolute event-free survival, annualized absolute risk, relative risk, and a qualitative description) delivered by 1 of 4 presenter physicians (black woman, white woman, black man, white man). Subjects then completed a one-page form regarding background demographics and their decision regarding treatment choice. A total of 409 subjects watched the video and completed the survey. Overall, 48.4% of subjects chose surgery. Presentation format strongly predicted choice of surgery (qualitative [64%], relative risk [63%], absolute risk [43%], absolute event-free survival [37%], and annualized absolute risk [35%], p < 0.001). There was a trend for younger age (mean age 52 vs 55, p = 0.054), male gender (53% vs 45%, p = 0.08), and advanced education (42% for high school education or less vs 52% for more than high school education, p = 0.052) to predict surgery choice. Gender and race of presenter, and race of subject, had no influence on the choice of treatment. Presentation format (information framing) strongly determines patient decision-making in asymptomatic carotid stenosis. Subject age, gender, and education level may also influence the decision. Clinicians should consider the influence of these variables when counseling patients.

Climate change impacts on projections of excess mortality at ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

We project the change in ozone-related mortality burden attributable to changes in climate between a historical (1995-2005) and near-future (2025-2035) time period while incorporating a non-linear and synergistic effect of ozone and temperature on mortality. We simulate air quality from climate projections varying only biogenic emissions and holding anthropogenic emissions constant, thus attributing changes in ozone only to changes in climate and independent of changes in air pollutant emissions. We estimate non-linear, spatially varying, ozone-temperature risk surfaces for 94 US urban areas using observeddata. Using the risk surfaces and climate projections we estimate daily mortality attributable to ozone exceeding 40 p.p.b. (moderate level) and 75 p.p.b. (US ozone NAAQS) for each time period. The average increases in city-specific median April-October ozone and temperature between time periods are 1.02 p.p.b. and 1.94 °F; however, the results variedby region . Increases in ozone because of climate change result in an increase in ozone mortality burden. Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 40 p.p.b. increases by 7.7% (1 .6-14.2%). Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 75 p.p.b. increases by 14.2% (1.628.9%). The absolute increase in excess ozone mortality is larger for changes in moderate ozone levels, reflecting the larger number of days with moderate ozone levels. In this study we evaluate changes in ozone related mortality due to changes in biogenic f

Carotid intima-media thickness and plaque in apparently healthy Japanese individuals with an estimated 10-year absolute risk of CAD death according to the Japan Atherosclerosis Society (JAS) guidelines 2012: the Shiga Epidemiological Study of Subclinical Atherosclerosis (SESSA).

PubMed

Kadota, Aya; Miura, Katsuyuki; Okamura, Tomonori; Fujiyoshi, Akira; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Kadowaki, Takashi; Takashima, Naoyuki; Hisamatsu, Takashi; Nakamura, Yasuyuki; Kasagi, Fumiyoshi; Maegawa, Hiroshi; Kashiwagi, Atsunori; Ueshima, Hirotsugu

2013-01-01

To examine whether subclinical atherosclerosis of the carotid arteries is concordant with the categories in the 2012 atherosclerosis prevention guidelines proposed by the Japan Atherosclerosis Society (JAS guidelines 2012), which adopted the estimated 10-year absolute risk of coronary artery disease (CAD) death in the NIPPON DATA80 Risk Assessment Chart. Between 2006 and 2008, 868 Japanese men 40 to 74 years of age without a history of cardiovascular disease were randomly selected from Kusatsu City, Japan. The intima media thickness (IMT) and plaque number from the common to internal carotid arteries were investigated using ultrasonography. The absolute risk of CAD death was estimated based on the individual risk factor data, and the mean IMT and plaque number in Categories Ⅰ, Ⅱ and Ⅲ of the guidelines were examined. The estimated 10-year absolute risk of CAD was directly related to the IMT (mean IMT (mean ± SD) (mm) for a 10-year absolute risk of ≥ 2.0% and ≥ 5.0%: 0.88 ± 0.18 and 0.95 ± 0.19, respectively) and the plaque number. These results are compatible with the categories described by the guidelines (mean IMT (mean ± SD) (mm) for Categories Ⅰ, Ⅱ, and Ⅲ: 0.70 ± 0.11, 0.81 ± 0.16 and 0.88 ± 0.18, respectively; mean plaque number: 0.9, 2.1 and 3, respectively). These findings were similar for Category Ⅲ participants with or without DM and CKD. Subclinical atherosclerosis of the carotid arteries is concordant with the 10-year absolute risk of CAD and the categories in the JAS guidelines 2012.

What do men understand about lifetime risk following genetic testing? The effect of context and numeracy.

PubMed

Rolison, Jonathan J; Hanoch, Yaniv; Miron-Shatz, Talya

2012-07-01

Genetic testing for gene mutations associated with specific cancers provides an opportunity for early detection, surveillance, and intervention (Smith, Cokkinides, & Brawley, 2008). Lifetime risk estimates provided by genetic testing refer to the risk of developing a specific disease within one's lifetime, and evidence suggests that this is important for the medical choices people make, as well as their future family and financial plans. The present studies tested whether adult men understand the lifetime risks of prostate cancer informed by genetic testing. In 2 experiments, adult men were asked to interpret the lifetime risk information provided in statements about risks of prostate cancer. Statement format was manipulated such that the most appropriate interpretation of risk statements referred to an absolute risk of cancer in experiment 1 and a relative risk in experiment 2. Experiment 1 revealed that few men correctly interpreted the lifetime risks of cancer when these refer to an absolute risk of cancer, and numeracy levels positively predicted correct responding. The proportion of correct responses was greatly improved in experiment 2 when the most appropriate interpretation of risk statements referred instead to a relative rather than an absolute risk, and numeracy levels were less involved. Understanding of lifetime risk information is often poor because individuals incorrectly believe that these refer to relative rather than absolute risks of cancer.

Personalized Risk Estimator for Rheumatoid Arthritis (PRE-RA) Family Study: Rationale and design for a randomized controlled trial evaluating rheumatoid arthritis risk education to first-degree relatives

PubMed Central

Sparks, Jeffrey A.; Iversen, Maura D.; Kroouze, Rachel Miller; Mahmoud, Taysir G.; Triedman, Nellie A.; Kalia, Sarah S.; Atkinson, Michael L.; Lu, Bing; Deane, Kevin D.; Costenbader, Karen H.; Green, Robert C.; Karlson, Elizabeth W.

2014-01-01

We present the rationale, design features, and protocol of the Personalized Risk Estimator for Rheumatoid Arthritis (PRE-RA) Family Study (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02046005). The PRE-RA Family Study is an NIH-funded prospective, randomized controlled trial designed to compare the willingness to change behaviors in first-degree relatives of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients without RA after exposure to RA risk educational programs. Consented subjects are randomized to receive education concerning their personalized RA risk based on demographics, RA-associated behaviors, genetics and biomarkers or to receive standard RA information. Four behavioral factors associated with RA risk were identified from prior studies for inclusion in the risk estimate: cigarette smoking, excess body weight, poor oral health, and low fish intake. Personalized RA risk information is presented through an online tool that collects data on an individual's specific age, gender, family history, and risk-related behaviors; presents genetic and biomarker results; displays relative and absolute risk of RA; and provides personalized feedback and education. The trial outcomes will be changes in willingness to alter behaviors from baseline to 6 weeks, 6 months, and 12 months in the three intervention groups. The design and execution of this trial that targets a special population at risk for RA, while incorporating varied risk factors into a single risk tool, offer distinct challenges. We provide the theoretical rationale for the PRE-RA Family Study and highlight particular design features of this trial that utilize personalized risk education as an intervention. PMID:25151341

Prevalence of white spot lesion formation during orthodontic treatment.

PubMed

Julien, Katie C; Buschang, Peter H; Campbell, Phillip M

2013-07-01

To quantify the prevalence of white spot lesions (WSLs) on the anterior teeth and, secondarily, to evaluate risk factors and predictors. Digital photographs and records of 885 randomly chosen patients were evaluated before and after treatment. Chart information included gender, age, as well as banding and debanding dates. Fluorosis and oral hygiene before and after treatment were also evaluated. Preexisting and posttreatment WSLs were recorded and compared for all 12 anterior teeth. Risk ratios (RR) and absolute risk (AR) were calculated to determine the likelihood and risk of WSL formation. Overall, 23.4% of the patients developed at least one WSL during their course of treatment. Maxillary anterior teeth were affected more than mandibular teeth. The maxillary laterals and canines and the mandibular canines were the most susceptible. There was no significant difference in WSLs between genders. Fluorosis, treatment time in excess of 36 months, poor pretreatment hygiene, hygiene changes during treatment, and preexisting WSLs were all significantly (P < .05) related to the development of WSLs. The highest risk of developing WSLs was associated with preexisting WSLs (RR = 3.40), followed by declines in oral hygiene during treatment (RR = 3.12) and poor pretreatment oral hygiene (RR = 2.83). Nearly 25% of the patients developed WSLs while in treatment, depending on fluorosis, treatment time, preexisting WSLs, and oral hygiene. Orthodontists need to be mindful of these risk factors when making treatment decisions.

How are lung cancer risk perceptions and cigarette smoking related?-testing an accuracy hypothesis.

PubMed

Chen, Lei-Shih; Kaphingst, Kimberly A; Tseng, Tung-Sung; Zhao, Shixi

2016-10-01

Subjective risk perception is an important theoretical construct in the field of cancer prevention and control. Although the relationship between subjective risk perception and health behaviors has been widely studied in many health contexts, the causalities and associations between the risk perception of developing lung cancer and cigarette smoking have been inconsistently reported among studies. Such inconsistency may be from discrepancies between study designs (cross-sectional versus longitudinal designs) and the three hypotheses (i.e., the behavior motivation hypothesis, the risk reappraisals hypothesis, and the accuracy hypothesis) testing different underlying associations between risk perception and cigarette-smoking behaviors. To clarify this issue, as an initial step, we examined the association between absolute and relative risk perceptions of developing lung cancer and cigarette-smoking behaviors among a large, national representative sample of 1,680 U.S. adults by testing an accuracy hypothesis (i.e., people who smoke accurately perceived a higher risk of developing lung cancer). Data from the U.S. Health Information National Trends Survey (HINTS) were analyzed using logistic regression and multivariate linear regression to examine the associations between risk perception and cigarette-smoking behaviors among 1,680 U.S. adults. Findings from this cross-sectional survey suggest that absolute and relative risk perceptions were positively and significantly correlated with having smoked >100 cigarettes during lifetime and the frequency of cigarette smoking. Only absolute risk perception was significantly associated with the number of cigarettes smoked per day among current smokers. Because both absolute and relative risk perceptions are positively related to most cigarette-smoking behaviors, this study supports the accuracy hypothesis. Moreover, absolute risk perception might be a more sensitive measurement than relative risk perception for perceived lung cancer risk. Longitudinal research is needed in the future to investigate other types of risk perception-risk behavior hypotheses-the behavior motivation and the risk reappraisals hypotheses-among nationally representative samples to further examine the causations between risk perception of obtaining lung cancer and smoking behaviors.

Should risk of bone fragility restrict weight control for other health reasons in postmenopausal women?--A ten year prospective study.

PubMed

Sirola, Joonas; Rikkonen, Toni; Tuppurainen, Marjo; Honkanen, Risto; Kröger, Heikki

2012-02-01

The aim of the present study was to investigate the health risks of excess body weight in the light of its protective effects on bone fragility. Femoral neck and lumbar spine dual X-ray absorptiometry was performed for 1970 Finnish women with a mean baseline age of 58.8 years (range 53.1-65.7 years) in 1994 and 2004. Women were categorized according to baseline BMI into normal <25 kg/m2, overweight 25-29.9 kg/m(2) and obese ≥30 kg/m(2). Weight change (kg) was categorized into tertiles. Co-morbidities, not allowed to be present at baseline, was based on self-reports. Osteoporosis was defined as femoral neck or spinal (L2-L4) T-score <-2.5 SD at 10-year follow-up or <-2.0 SD+low trauma energy follow-up fracture. Uni- and multivariate logistic regression models were used to estimate the 10-year risk of incident health disorders. Adjustment for age, number of diseases, alcohol intake and smoking was used in the multivariate models. Obesity (Ob) and overweight (Ow) were related with higher 10-year risk of hypertension (OR=2.6 (Ob)/OR=1.7 (Ow), p<0.001), coronary artery disease (OR=1.6, p<0.05/OR=1.2, p=NS), diabetes (OR=11.7/OR=5.3, p<0.001), osteoarthritis (OR=1.4, p<0.05/OR=1.1, p=NS), chronic back pain (OR=1.6, p=0.007/OR=1.2, p=NS) and poor self-rated health (OR=2.4, p<0.05/OR=1.5, p=NS) and lower risk of osteoporosis (OR=0.13/OR=0.28, p<0.001). Weight change of less than +1 kg was associated 1.8 and 2.6 times lower 10-year risk of having hypertension and breast cancer than weight change over 6.2 kg. Among obese women the absolute risk increase of hypertension was 17%, of diabetes 12%, and absolute risk reduction of osteoporosis 14% in comparison to BMI <25 kg/m(2). Health related risks of high BMI outweigh its protective effects on bone. Weight gain increases the risk hypertension and breast cancer. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bladder cancer mortality of workers exposed to aromatic amines: a 58-year follow-up.

PubMed

Pira, Enrico; Piolatto, Giorgio; Negri, Eva; Romano, Canzio; Boffetta, Paolo; Lipworth, Loren; McLaughlin, Joseph K; La Vecchia, Carlo

2010-07-21

We previously investigated bladder cancer risk in a cohort of dyestuff workers who were heavily exposed to aromatic amines from 1922 through 1972. We updated the follow-up by 14 years (through 2003) for 590 exposed workers to include more than 30 years of follow-up since last exposure to aromatic amines. Expected numbers of deaths from bladder cancer and other causes were computed by use of national mortality rates from 1951 to 1980 and regional mortality rates subsequently. There were 394 deaths, compared with 262.7 expected (standardized mortality ratio = 1.50, 95% confidence interval = 1.36 to 1.66). Overall, 56 deaths from bladder cancer were observed, compared with 3.4 expected (standardized mortality ratio = 16.5, 95% confidence interval = 12.4 to 21.4). The standardized mortality ratio for bladder cancer increased with younger age at first exposure and increasing duration of exposure. Although the standardized mortality ratio for bladder cancer steadily decreased with time since exposure stopped, the absolute risk remained approximately constant at 3.5 deaths per 1000 man-years up to 29 years after exposure stopped. Excess risk was apparent 30 years or more after last exposure.

Comparison of esophageal Doppler and plethysmographic variability index to guide intraoperative fluid therapy for low-risk patients undergoing colorectal surgery.

PubMed

Warnakulasuriya, Samantha R; Davies, Simon J; Wilson, R Jonathan T; Yates, David R A

2016-11-01

This study aims to investigate if there is equivalence in volumes of fluid administered when intravenous fluid therapy is guided by Pleth Variability Index (PVI) compared to the established technology of esophageal Doppler in low-risk patients undergoing major colorectal surgery. Randomized controlled trial. Operating room. Forty low-risk patients undergoing elective colorectal surgery. Patients were monitored by esophageal Doppler and PVI probes and were randomized to have fluid therapy directed by using one of these technologies, with 250 mL boluses of colloid to maintain a maximal stroke volume, or a PVI of less than 14%. Absolute volumes of fluid volumes given intraoperatively were measured as were 24 hours fluid volumes. Perioperative measurements of lactate and base excess were recorded as were postoperative complications. There was no significant difference between PVI and esophageal Doppler groups in mean total fluid administered (1286 vs 1520 mL, P=.300) or mean intraoperative fluid balance (+839 v+1145 mL, P=.150). PVI offers an entirely non-invasive alternative for goal-directed fluid therapy in this group of patients. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effect on the lipid parameters of an intervention to reduce weight in overweight and obese patients.

PubMed

Tárraga Marcos, M Loreto; Panisello Royo, Josefa María; Carbayo Herencia, Julio A; Rosich Domenech, Nuria; Alins Presas, Josep; Tárraga López, Pedro J

To assess the effect on lipid parameters most associated with excess weight (triglycerides [TG], cholesterol, and high density lipoprotein [HDL-C]) of an intervention to reduce weight in overweight and obese patients. A randomised, controlled, double blind clinical trial, with three groups, and a follow-up of 12 months. Patients included in the study were randomised into three intervention groups: Obesity motivational intervention group with previously trained nurse (G1), lower intensity consultation, non-motivational group, with digital platform support (G2), and a third group that received a recommendation to lose weight and usual follow-up (G3). The anthropometric variables measured were height, weight, and abdominal/waist circumference, and laboratory results, total cholesterol, TG and HDL cholesterol). The study include 176 patients, of whom 60 were randomised to G1, 61 to G2, and 59 to G3. All groups significantly decreased body weight at the end of the study, with a decrease in G1 (-5.6kg), followed by G2 (-4.3kg), and G3 (-1.7kg), with an overall mean loss of -3.9kg. There was a also significant decrease (P<.05) in total cholesterol and TG, and an increased HDL-C. These changes were more marked in the G1 group (the group that lost more weight). The clinical relevance indicators that were significant were: in the case of TG: G1/G3: relative risk: 1.42 (95% CI: 1.11-1.80); relative risk reduction: 41.7% (11.4-80.2); absolute risk reduction: 25% (9.2-40.8) and NNT: 5 (3-11). In the case of G1/G2 HDL-C: relative risk: 1.32 (1.07-1.63); relative risk reduction: 32.2% (7.4-62.6); absolute risk reduction: 21.1% (6.4-35.8) and NNT: 5 (3-16). Weight reduction is accompanied by favorable changes in the lipid parameters related to overweight and obesity, being more intense the greater the weight loss. Copyright © 2017 Sociedad Española de Arteriosclerosis. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Calculating excess lifetime risk in relative risk models.

PubMed Central

Vaeth, M; Pierce, D A

1990-01-01

When assessing the impact of radiation exposure it is common practice to present the final conclusions in terms of excess lifetime cancer risk in a population exposed to a given dose. The present investigation is mainly a methodological study focusing on some of the major issues and uncertainties involved in calculating such excess lifetime risks and related risk projection methods. The age-constant relative risk model used in the recent analyses of the cancer mortality that was observed in the follow-up of the cohort of A-bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki is used to describe the effect of the exposure on the cancer mortality. In this type of model the excess relative risk is constant in age-at-risk, but depends on the age-at-exposure. Calculation of excess lifetime risks usually requires rather complicated life-table computations. In this paper we propose a simple approximation to the excess lifetime risk; the validity of the approximation for low levels of exposure is justified empirically as well as theoretically. This approximation provides important guidance in understanding the influence of the various factors involved in risk projections. Among the further topics considered are the influence of a latent period, the additional problems involved in calculations of site-specific excess lifetime cancer risks, the consequences of a leveling off or a plateau in the excess relative risk, and the uncertainties involved in transferring results from one population to another. The main part of this study relates to the situation with a single, instantaneous exposure, but a brief discussion is also given of the problem with a continuous exposure at a low-dose rate. PMID:2269245

Calculating excess lifetime risk in relative risk models.

PubMed

Vaeth, M; Pierce, D A

1990-07-01

When assessing the impact of radiation exposure it is common practice to present the final conclusions in terms of excess lifetime cancer risk in a population exposed to a given dose. The present investigation is mainly a methodological study focusing on some of the major issues and uncertainties involved in calculating such excess lifetime risks and related risk projection methods. The age-constant relative risk model used in the recent analyses of the cancer mortality that was observed in the follow-up of the cohort of A-bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki is used to describe the effect of the exposure on the cancer mortality. In this type of model the excess relative risk is constant in age-at-risk, but depends on the age-at-exposure. Calculation of excess lifetime risks usually requires rather complicated life-table computations. In this paper we propose a simple approximation to the excess lifetime risk; the validity of the approximation for low levels of exposure is justified empirically as well as theoretically. This approximation provides important guidance in understanding the influence of the various factors involved in risk projections. Among the further topics considered are the influence of a latent period, the additional problems involved in calculations of site-specific excess lifetime cancer risks, the consequences of a leveling off or a plateau in the excess relative risk, and the uncertainties involved in transferring results from one population to another. The main part of this study relates to the situation with a single, instantaneous exposure, but a brief discussion is also given of the problem with a continuous exposure at a low-dose rate.

Evaluation of the stepwise collimation method for the reduction of the patient dose in full spine radiography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Boram; Lee, Sunyoung; Yang, Injeong; Yoon, Myeonggeun

2014-05-01

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the dose reduction when using the stepwise collimation method for scoliosis patients undergoing full spine radiography. A Monte Carlo simulation was carried out to acquire dose vs. volume data for organs at risk (OAR) in the human body. While the effective doses in full spine radiography were reduced by 8, 15, 27 and 44% by using four different sizes of the collimation, the doses to the skin were reduced by 31, 44, 55 and 66%, indicating that the reduction of the dose to the skin is higher than that to organs inside the body. Although the reduction rates were low for the gonad, being 9, 14, 18 and 23%, there was more than a 30% reduction in the dose to the heart, suggesting that the dose reduction depends significantly on the location of the OARs in the human body. The reduction rate of the secondary cancer risk based on the excess absolute risk (EAR) varied from 0.6 to 3.4 per 10,000 persons, depending on the size of the collimation. Our results suggest that the stepwise collimation method in full spine radiography can effectively reduce the patient dose and the radiation-induced secondary cancer risk.

Second cancer risk after 3D-CRT, IMRT and VMAT for breast cancer.

PubMed

Abo-Madyan, Yasser; Aziz, Muhammad Hammad; Aly, Moamen M O M; Schneider, Frank; Sperk, Elena; Clausen, Sven; Giordano, Frank A; Herskind, Carsten; Steil, Volker; Wenz, Frederik; Glatting, Gerhard

2014-03-01

Second cancer risk after breast conserving therapy is becoming more important due to improved long term survival rates. In this study, we estimate the risks for developing a solid second cancer after radiotherapy of breast cancer using the concept of organ equivalent dose (OED). Computer-tomography scans of 10 representative breast cancer patients were selected for this study. Three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3D-CRT), tangential intensity modulated radiotherapy (t-IMRT), multibeam intensity modulated radiotherapy (m-IMRT), and volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT) were planned to deliver a total dose of 50 Gy in 2 Gy fractions. Differential dose volume histograms (dDVHs) were created and the OEDs calculated. Second cancer risks of ipsilateral, contralateral lung and contralateral breast cancer were estimated using linear, linear-exponential and plateau models for second cancer risk. Compared to 3D-CRT, cumulative excess absolute risks (EAR) for t-IMRT, m-IMRT and VMAT were increased by 2 ± 15%, 131 ± 85%, 123 ± 66% for the linear-exponential risk model, 9 ± 22%, 82 ± 96%, 71 ± 82% for the linear and 3 ± 14%, 123 ± 78%, 113 ± 61% for the plateau model, respectively. Second cancer risk after 3D-CRT or t-IMRT is lower than for m-IMRT or VMAT by about 34% for the linear model and 50% for the linear-exponential and plateau models, respectively. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Thyroid cancer after exposure to external radiation: A pooled analysis of seven studies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ron, E.; Lubin, J.H.; Pottern, L.M.

1995-03-01

The thyroid gland of children is especially vulnerable to the carcinogenic action of ionizing radiation. To provide insights into various modifying influences on risk, seven major studies with organ doses to individual subjects were evaluated. Five cohort studies (atomic bomb survivors, children treated for tinea capitis, two studies of children irradiated for enlarged tonsils, and infants irradiated for an enlarged thymus gland) and two case-control studies (patients with cervical cancer and childhood cancer) were studied. The combined studies include almost 120,000 people (approximately 58,000 exposed to a wide range of doses and 61,000 nonexposed subjects), nearly 700 thyroid cancers andmore » 3,000,000 person years of follow-up. For persons exposed to radiation before age 15 years, linearity best described the dose response, even down to 0.10 Gy. At the highest doses (>10 Gy), associated with cancer therapy, there appeared to be a decrease or leveling of risk. For childhood exposures, the pooled excess relative risk per Gy (ERR/Gy) was 7.7 (95% CI = 2.1, 28.7) and the excess absolute risk per 10{sup 4} PY Gy (EAR/10{sup 4} PY Gy) was 4.4 (95% CI = 1.9, 10.1). The attributable risk percent (AR%) at 1 Gy was 88%. However, these summary estimates were affected strongly by age at exposure even within this limited age range. The ERR was greater (P = 0.07) for females than males, but the findings from the individual studies were not consistent. The EAR was higher among women, reflecting their higher rate of naturally occurring thyroid cancer. The distribution of ERR over time followed neither a simple multiplicative nor an additive pattern in relation to background occurrence. Only two cases were seen within 5 years of exposure. The ERR began to decline about 30 years after exposure but was still elevated at 40 years. Risk also decreased significantly with increasing age at exposure, with little risk apparent after age 20 years. 56 refs., 5 figs., 8 tabs.« less

Common pitfalls in statistical analysis: Absolute risk reduction, relative risk reduction, and number needed to treat

PubMed Central

Ranganathan, Priya; Pramesh, C. S.; Aggarwal, Rakesh

2016-01-01

In the previous article in this series on common pitfalls in statistical analysis, we looked at the difference between risk and odds. Risk, which refers to the probability of occurrence of an event or outcome, can be defined in absolute or relative terms. Understanding what these measures represent is essential for the accurate interpretation of study results. PMID:26952180

Absolute rather than relative income is a better socioeconomic predictor of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Swedish adults.

PubMed

Axelsson Fisk, Sten; Merlo, Juan

2017-05-04

While psychosocial theory claims that socioeconomic status (SES), acting through social comparisons, has an important influence on susceptibility to disease, materialistic theory says that socioeconomic position (SEP) and related access to material resources matter more. However, the relative role of SEP versus SES in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) risk has still not been examined. We investigated the association between SES/SEP and COPD risk among 667 094 older adults, aged 55 to 60, residing in Sweden between 2006 and 2011. Absolute income in five groups by population quintiles depicted SEP and relative income expressed as quintile groups within each absolute income group represented SES. We performed sex-stratified logistic regression models to estimate odds ratios and the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC) to compare the discriminatory accuracy of SES and SEP in relation to COPD. Even though both absolute (SEP) and relative income (SES) were associated with COPD risk, only absolute income (SEP) presented a clear gradient, so the poorest had a three-fold higher COPD risk than the richest individuals. While the AUC for a model including only age was 0.54 and 0.55 when including relative income (SES), it increased to 0.65 when accounting for absolute income (SEP). SEP rather than SES demonstrated a consistent association with COPD. Our study supports the materialistic theory. Access to material resources seems more relevant to COPD risk than the consequences of low relative income.

Racial and ethnic disparities in hospital care resulting from air pollution in excess of federal standards.

PubMed

Hackbarth, Andrew D; Romley, John A; Goldman, Dana P

2011-10-01

This study investigates racial and ethnic disparities in hospital admission and emergency room visit rates resulting from exposure to ozone and fine particulate matter levels in excess of federal standards ("excess attributable risk"). We generate zip code-level ambient pollution exposures and hospital event rates using state datasets, and use pollution impact estimates in the epidemiological literature to calculate excess attributable risk for racial/ethnic groups in California over 2005-2007. We find that black residents experienced roughly 2.5 times the excess attributable risk of white residents. Hispanic residents were exposed to the highest levels of pollution, but experienced similar excess attributable risk to whites. Asian/Pacific Islander residents had substantially lower excess attributable risk compared to white. We estimate the distinct contributions of exposure and other factors to these results, and find that factors other than exposure can be critical determinants of pollution-related disparities. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

12 CFR Appendix B to Part 3 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines; Market Risk Adjustment

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

...-zero specific risk capital charge. (A) For covered debt positions that are derivatives, a bank must... (including derivatives) in identical debt issues or indices. (iii) A bank must multiply the absolute value of... multiply the absolute value of the current market value of each net long or short covered equity position...

[Relationship between the risk of emergency cesarean section for nullipara with the prepregnancy body mass index or gestational weight gain].

PubMed

Zhao, R F; Zhang, W Y; Zhou, L

2017-11-25

Objective: To investigate the risk of emergency cesarean section during labor with the pre-pregnancy body mass index or gestational weight gain. Methods: A total of 6 908 healthy nullipara with singleton pregnancy and cephalic presentation who was in term labor in Beijing Obstetrics and Gynecology Hospital from August 1(st), 2014 to September 30(th), 2015 were recruited. They were divided into two groups, the vaginal delivery group (92.88%, 6 416/6 908) and the emergency cesarean section group (7.12%, 492/6 908). According to WHO body mass index (BMI) classification criteria and the pre-pregnancy BMI, the 6 908 women were divided into three groups, the underweight group(BMI<18.5 kg/m(2); 17.39%, 1 201/6 908), the normal weight group(18.5-24.9 kg/m(2); 73.00%, 5 043/6 908), the overweight and obese group (≥ 25.0 kg/m(2); 9.61%, 664/6 908). According to the guidelines of Institute of Medicine (IOM) , they were divided into three groups, the inadequate gestational weight gain (GWG) group (16.72%, 1 155/6 908), the appropriate GWG group (43.11%, 2 978/6 908), the excessive GWG group (40.17%, 2 775/6 908). Unadjusted and adjusted odds ratio ( OR ) and confidence interval ( CI ) of the risk of emergency cesarean section were calculated by bivariate logistic regression. Results: (1) Comparing to the vaginal delivery group, women in the emergency cesarean section group were older, with a lower education level. Their prepregnancy BMI was higer and had more gestational weight gain. They had higher morbidity of pregnancy induced hypertension and gestational diabetes mellitus. Comparing to the vaginal delivery group, the neonates in the emergency cesarean section group were elder in gestational week, with higher birth weight. More male infants and large for gestation age infants were seen in the emergency cesarean section group (all P <0.05) . (2) Overweight and obesity were associated with the increased risk of emergency cesarean section for nullipara, with the unadjusted OR of 1.98 (95% CI : 1.54-2.54), adjusted OR ( aOR ) of 1.66 (95% CI : 1.27-2.16). In the inadequate GWG group and the excessive GWG group, overweight and obese women had increased risk of emergency cesarean section, with adjusted OR of 2.33 (95% CI : 1.06-5.14) and 1.62 (95% CI : 1.44-2.28), respectively. In the appropriate GWG group, there was no significant difference in the risk of emergency cesarean section between the overweight and obese women and the normal weight women, with a OR of 1.54 (95% CI : 0.94-2.54). The underweight group was associated with decreased risk of emergency cesarean section ( OR= 0.55, 95% CI : 0.40-0.74; a OR= 0.66, 95% CI : 0.48-0.90). While no significant difference in the risk of emergency cesarean section was found between the underweight women, the overweight and obese women, with the a OR of 0.31 (95% CI : 0.07-1.32), 0.73 (95% CI : 0.48-1.10), 0.66 (95% CI : 0.38-1.12), respectively. (3) Absolute value of gestational weight gain was associated with the increased risk of emergency cesarean section, (a OR= 1.03, 95% CI : 1.01-1.05). GWG above IOM giudelines did not independently affect the risk of emergency cesarean section ( OR= 1.30, 95% CI : 1.07-1.58; a OR= 1.01, 95% CI : 0.82-1.24). In the underweight group, the normal weight group and the overweight or obese group, the excessive GWG women and the appropriate GWG women had no significant difference in the risk of emergency cesarean section (a OR= 1.03, 95% CI : 0.55-1.12; a OR= 1.02, 95% CI : 0.80-1.30; a OR= 1.03, 95% CI : 0.59-1.78) , respectively. GWG below IOM giudelines was associated with decreased risk of emergency cesarean section ( OR= 0.62, 95% CI : 0.45-0.85; a OR= 0.64, 95% CI : 0.46-0.88). In the underweight group and the overweight or obese group, there was no significant difference in the emergency cesarean section risk between the inadequate GWG women and the appropriate GWG within women (a OR= 0.24, 95% CI : 0.06-1.01; a OR= 0.90, 95% CI : 0.40-2.04) . In the normal weight group, the inadequate GWG women had lower risk of emergency cesarean section (a OR= 0.65, 95% CI : 0.45-0.95). Conclusions: Overweight and obese women have increased risk of emergency cesarean section. The prepregnancy BMI is supposed to be an appropriate level. Absolute value of gestational weight gain is associated with increased risk of emergency cesarean section. There is no correlation between the excessive GWG and the risk of emergency cesarean section.

Absolute versus relative measures of plasma fatty acids and health outcomes: example of phospholipid omega-3 and omega-6 fatty acids and all-cause mortality in women.

PubMed

Miura, Kyoko; Hughes, Maria Celia B; Ungerer, Jacobus P J; Smith, David D; Green, Adèle C

2018-03-01

In a well-characterised community-based prospective study, we aimed to systematically assess the differences in associations of plasma omega-3 and omega-6 fatty acid (FA) status with all-cause mortality when plasma FA status is expressed in absolute concentrations versus relative levels. In a community sample of 564 women aged 25-75 years in Queensland, Australia, baseline plasma phospholipid FA levels were measured using gas chromatography. Specific FAs analysed were eicosapentaenoic acid, docosapentaenoic acid, docosahexaenoic acid, total long-chain omega-3 FAs, linoleic acid, arachidonic acid, and total omega-6 FAs. Levels of each FA were expressed in absolute amounts (µg/mL) and relative levels (% of total FAs) and divided into thirds. Deaths were monitored for 17 years and hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals calculated to assess risk of death according to absolute versus relative plasma FA levels. In total 81 (14%) women died during follow-up. Agreement between absolute and relative measures of plasma FAs was higher in omega-3 than omega-6 FAs. The results of multivariate analyses for risk of all-cause mortality were generally similar with risk tending to inverse associations with plasma phospholipid omega-3 FAs and no association with omega-6 FAs. Sensitivity analyses examining effects of age and presence of serious medical conditions on risk of mortality did not alter findings. The directions and magnitude of associations with mortality of absolute versus relative FA levels were comparable. However, plasma FA expressed as absolute concentrations may be preferred for ease of comparison and since relative units can be deduced from absolute units.

Relationship between cigarette smoking and other coronary risk factors in atherosclerosis: risk of cardiovascular disease and preventive measures.

PubMed

Leone, Aurelio

2003-01-01

Among the major Coronary Risk Factors (CRF) cigarette smoking has shown undoubtedly harmful effects on the heart and blood vessels either as active smoking (smoking a cigarette) or passive smoking (exposure to environmental tobacco smoke -ETS). The strong relationship between cigarette smoking and cardiovascular disease has been seen independent of the other CRF in a number of well-designated epidemiologic studies. However, a strong increase in the excess of cardiovascular risk has been defined along with the interaction of cigarette smoking and other major CRF. Thousands of pharmacologically active substances are present in tobacco smoke, and a large number of direct and indirect effects have been demonstrated. Different responses are also related to these types of exposure: active exposure or passive exposure. The cardiovascular risk increases with increasing levels of blood pressure and/or serum cholesterol and diabetes mellitus, and at each level of these three risk factors, distributed with different rates according to age and gender in individuals, the risk in active smokers or passive smokers is greater than the risk in nonsmokers. Further analytical and methodological observations are needed for better understanding of the chemical and biological synergism. Nevertheless, evidence is clear that cigarette smoking greatly increases the risk of cardiovascular diseases in individuals already at increased risk because of other CRF. Preventive measures must be absolutely conducted to prevent the CRF interaction. These are the changes in lifestyle (i.e. to give up smoking and make physical activity), drug administration, diet supplementation especially by those substances with antioxidant effects.

Income and Social Rank Influence UK Children's Behavioral Problems: A Longitudinal Analysis.

PubMed

Garratt, Elisabeth A; Chandola, Tarani; Purdam, Kingsley; Wood, Alex M

2017-07-01

Children living in low-income households face elevated risks of behavioral problems, but the impact of absolute and relative income to this risk remains unexplored. Using the U.K. Millennium Cohort Study data, longitudinal associations between Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire scores and absolute household income, distance from the regional median and mean income, and regional income rank were examined in 3- to 12-year-olds (n = 16,532). Higher absolute household incomes were associated with lower behavioral problems, while higher income rank was associated with lower behavioral problems only at the highest absolute incomes. Higher absolute household incomes were associated with lower behavioral problems among children in working households, indicating compounding effects of income and socioeconomic advantages. Both absolute and relative incomes therefore appear to influence behavioral problems. © 2016 The Authors. Child Development © 2016 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

a Chiral Tagging Strategy for Determining Absolute Configuration and Enantiomeric Excess by Molecular Rotational Spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evangelisti, Luca; Caminati, Walther; Patterson, David; Thomas, Javix; Xu, Yunjie; West, Channing; Pate, Brooks

2017-06-01

The introduction of three wave mixing rotational spectroscopy by Patterson, Schnell, and Doyle [1,2] has expanded applications of molecular rotational spectroscopy into the field of chiral analysis. Chiral analysis of a molecule is the quantitative measurement of the relative abundances of all stereoisomers of the molecule and these include both diastereomers (with distinct molecular rotational spectra) and enantiomers (with equivalent molecular rotational spectra). This work adapts a common strategy in chiral analysis of enantiomers to molecular rotational spectroscopy. A "chiral tag" is attached to the molecule of interest by making a weakly bound complex in a pulsed jet expansion. When this tag molecule is enantiopure, it will create diastereomeric complexes with the two enantiomers of the molecule being analyzed and these can be differentiated by molecule rotational spectroscopy. Identifying the structure of this complex, with knowledge of the absolute configuration of the tag, establishes the absolute configuration of the molecule of interest. Furthermore, the diastereomer complex spectra can be used to determine the enantiomeric excess of the sample. The ability to perform chiral analysis will be illustrated by a study of solketal using propylene oxide as the tag. The possibility of using current methods of quantum chemistry to assign a specific structure to the chiral tag complex will be discussed. Finally, chiral tag rotational spectroscopy offers a "gold standard" method for determining the absolute configuration of the molecule through determination of the substitution structure of the complex. When this measurement is possible, rotational spectroscopy can deliver a quantitative three dimensional structure of the molecule with correct stereochemistry as the analysis output. [1] David Patterson, Melanie Schnell, John M. Doyle, Nature 497, 475 (2013). [2] David Patterson, John M. Doyle, Phys. Rev. Lett. 111, 023008 (2013).

Comparing excess costs across multiple corporate populations.

PubMed

Wright, Douglas; Adams, Laura; Beard, Marshall J; Burton, Wayne N; Hirschland, David; McDonald, Timothy; Napier, Deborah; Galante, Salvatore; Smith, Thomas; Edington, D W

2004-09-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship of health risk level to charged medical costs and determine the excess cost of higher risk individuals compared to low risk. Two years of medical claims from six corporations were used to determine costs of health risk assessment (HRA) participants and nonparticipants. A total of 165,770 employees, 21,124 of which took an HRA, were used for the study. Costs increased as risk level increased. There were no significant differences within a risk level between companies for the cost ratio. Percent of medical costs due to excess risk ranged from 15.0-30.8% for HRA participants and 23.8-38.3% for the study population. Cost patterns were consistent across companies. Excess cost as the result of increased risk level accounted for a substantial portion of the cost at each company. These results can be used to justify the need for a health-promotion program and to estimate potential savings as the result of excess risk. Even without the use of an HRA, health practitioners should feel confident stating that excess risk accounts for at least 25% to 30% of medical costs per year across a wide variety of companies, regardless of industry or demographics. The numbers can be used as a realistic estimate for any health promotion program financial proposal.

Treatment decision-making and the form of risk communication: results of a factorial survey.

PubMed

Hembroff, Larry A; Holmes-Rovner, Margaret; Wills, Celia E

2004-11-16

Prospective users of preventive therapies often must evaluate complex information about therapeutic risks and benefits. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of relative and absolute risk information on patient decision-making in scenarios typical of health information for patients. Factorial experiments within a telephone survey of the Michigan adult, non-institutionalized, English-speaking population. Average interview lasted 23 minutes. Subjects and sample design: 952 randomly selected adults within a random-digit dial sample of Michigan households. Completion rate was 54.3%. When presented hypothetical information regarding additional risks of breast cancer from a medication to prevent a bone disease, respondents reduced their willingness to recommend a female friend take the medication compared to the baseline rate (66.8% = yes). The decrease was significantly greater with relative risk information. Additional benefit information regarding preventing heart disease from the medication increased willingness to recommend the medication to a female friend relative to the baseline scenario, but did not differ between absolute and relative risk formats. When information about both increased risk of breast cancer and reduced risk of heart disease were provided, typical respondents appeared to make rational decisions consistent with Expected Utility Theory, but the information presentation format affected choices. Those 11% - 33% making decisions contrary to the medical indications were more likely to be Hispanic, older, more educated, smokers, and to have children in the home. In scenarios typical of health risk information, relative risk information led respondents to make non-normative decisions that were "corrected" when the frame used absolute risk information. This population sample made generally rational decisions when presented with absolute risk information, even in the context of a telephone interview requiring remembering rates given. The lack of effect of gender and race suggests that a standard strategy of presenting absolute risk information may improve patient decision-making.

Revisiting Absolute Radio Backgrounds in Light of Juno Cruise Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Tzu-Ching

Radio backgrounds have played a critical role in recent progress in astronomy and cosmology. Major amongst them, the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) is currently our most precise window on the physics of the early universe. Both its near perfect blackbody spectrum and its angular fluctuations led to unique cosmological inferences. Beyond the CMB, radio backgrounds have offered golden insights to Galactic and extragalactic astrophysics. In this proposal, we take note of the recently released "cruise data" collected over five years by the MicroWave Radiometer (MWR) instrument on board the Juno planetary mission to construct new, unprecedented and well-characterized full-sky maps at 6 frequencies ranging from 0.6 to 22 GHz. We propose to generate, validate and release these full-sky maps and investigate their rich and unique astrophysical implications. In particular, we expect the use of Juno data to shed light on the "ARCADE excess" and lead to new insights on Galactic and extragalactic radio signals. Over the past several years, evidence indicating the existence of a significant isotropic radio background has been hinted at by a number of instruments. In 2011, the Absolute Radiometer for Cosmology, Astrophysics and Diffuse Emission (ARCADE 2) collaboration reported measurements of the absolute sky temperature at a number of frequencies between 3 and 90 GHz (Fixsen et al. 2011). While these measurements are dominated by the CMB at frequencies above several GHz, they reveal the presence of significant excess power at the lowest measured frequencies (Seiffert et al. 2011). This conclusion is strengthened by a number of observations at lower frequencies, reported at 22 MHz, 45 MHz, 408 MHz and 1.42 GHz: the emission observed by each of these groups appears to be in significant excess to what can be attributed to Galactic emission, or to unresolved members of known extragalactic radio source populations. In addition, it appears to be anomalously spatially smooth to be extragalactic. Six years after the report of this excess, this situation remains unsettled and has not evolved due to the lack of new observations at these frequencies. For this reason, and for the intrinsic value of the unprecedented full-sky maps, the astrophysics impact of MWR Juno cruise observations will be very important. Our program will be articulated along five projects (labeled P1 to P5), loosely corresponding to research papers: (P1) We will generate well characterized full-sky maps at the Juno MWR six frequencies starting from the timestream data, released in September 2016 on the Planetary Data System (PDS) archive. We will validate these maps using cross-correlations with WMAP and Planck public maps at low frequencies. We will release our maps to the community via the NASA LAMBDA archive. This analysis will set the basis for the following projects. (P2) We will investigate the implication of these new maps for foreground modeling with a focus on CMB foreground separation. This analysis will be performed jointly with now standard WMAP and Planck component separation tools and products. (P3) We will investigate the implication of these new maps for foreground modeling with a focus on radio 21 cm intensity mapping signals, extending in the process current community foreground models. This analysis will be improve our understanding and characterization of radio foregrounds, and guide current and future redshifted 21 cm line mapping experiments. (P4) Using the above maps, we will revisit the ARCADE excess and perform absolute temperature measurement of the extragalactic radio backgrounds at multiple frequencies and angular positions over the sky. (P5) Using the above maps, we will revisit the ARCADE excess and perform absolute temperature measurement of the Galactic radio backgrounds at multiple frequencies and angular positions in the Galactic plane, using multiple other line surveys to guide our interpretation.

Don't know responses to cognitive and affective risk perception measures: Exploring prevalence and socio-demographic moderators.

PubMed

Janssen, Eva; Verduyn, Philippe; Waters, Erika A

2018-05-01

Many people report uncertainty when appraising their risk of cancer and other diseases, but prior research about the topic has focused solely on cognitive risk perceptions. We investigated uncertainty related to cognitive and affective risk questions. We also explored whether any differences in uncertainty between cognitive and affective questions varied in magnitude by item-specific or socio-demographic characteristics. Secondary analysis of data collected for a 2 × 2 × 3 full-factorial risk communication experiment (N = 835) that was embedded within an online survey. We investigated the frequency of 'don't know' responses (DKR) to eight perceived risk items that varied according to whether they assessed (1) cognitive versus affective perceived risk, (2) absolute versus comparative risk, and (3) colon cancer versus 'any exercise-related diseases'. Socio-demographics were as follows: sex, age, education, family history, and numeracy. We analysed the data using multilevel logistic regression. The odds of DKR were lower for affective than cognitive perceived risk (OR = 0.64, p < .001). This difference occurred for absolute but not comparative risk perceptions (interaction effect, p = .004), but no interactions for disease type or demographic characteristics were found (ps > .05). Lower uncertainty for affective (vs. cognitive) absolute perceived risk items is consistent with research stating: (1) Risk perceptions are grounded in people's feelings about a hazard, and (2) feelings are easier for people to access than facts. Including affective perceived risk items in health behaviour surveys may reduce missing data and improve data quality. Statement of contribution What is already known on this subject? Many people report that they don't know their risk (i.e., risk uncertainty). Evidence is growing for the importance of feelings of risk in explaining health behaviour. Feelings are easier for people to access than facts. What does this study add? Don't know responding is higher for absolute cognitive than absolute affective risk questions. This difference does not vary in magnitude by demographic characteristics. Affective perceived risk questions in surveys may reduce missing data and improve data quality. © 2018 The British Psychological Society.

Personalized Risk Estimator for Rheumatoid Arthritis (PRE-RA) Family Study: rationale and design for a randomized controlled trial evaluating rheumatoid arthritis risk education to first-degree relatives.

PubMed

Sparks, Jeffrey A; Iversen, Maura D; Miller Kroouze, Rachel; Mahmoud, Taysir G; Triedman, Nellie A; Kalia, Sarah S; Atkinson, Michael L; Lu, Bing; Deane, Kevin D; Costenbader, Karen H; Green, Robert C; Karlson, Elizabeth W

2014-09-01

We present the rationale, design features, and protocol of the Personalized Risk Estimator for Rheumatoid Arthritis (PRE-RA) Family Study (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02046005). The PRE-RA Family Study is an NIH-funded prospective, randomized controlled trial designed to compare the willingness to change behaviors in first-degree relatives of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients without RA after exposure to RA risk educational programs. Consented subjects are randomized to receive education concerning their personalized RA risk based on demographics, RA-associated behaviors, genetics, and biomarkers or to receive standard RA information. Four behavioral factors associated with RA risk were identified from prior studies for inclusion in the risk estimate: cigarette smoking, excess body weight, poor oral health, and low fish intake. Personalized RA risk information is presented through an online tool that collects data on an individual's specific age, gender, family history, and risk-related behaviors; presents genetic and biomarker results; displays relative and absolute risk of RA; and provides personalized feedback and education. The trial outcomes will be changes in willingness to alter behaviors from baseline to 6 weeks, 6 months, and 12 months in the three intervention groups. The design and the execution of this trial that targets a special population at risk for RA, while incorporating varied risk factors into a single risk tool, offer distinct challenges. We provide the theoretical rationale for the PRE-RA Family Study and highlight particular design features of this trial that utilize personalized risk education as an intervention. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Novel Associations between Common Breast Cancer Susceptibility Variants and Risk-Predicting Mammographic Density Measures

PubMed Central

Stone, Jennifer; Thompson, Deborah J.; dos-Santos-Silva, Isabel; Scott, Christopher; Tamimi, Rulla M.; Lindstrom, Sara; Kraft, Peter; Hazra, Aditi; Li, Jingmei; Eriksson, Louise; Czene, Kamila; Hall, Per; Jensen, Matt; Cunningham, Julie; Olson, Janet E.; Purrington, Kristen; Couch, Fergus J.; Brown, Judith; Leyland, Jean; Warren, Ruth M. L.; Luben, Robert N.; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Smith, Paula; Wareham, Nicholas J.; Jud, Sebastian M.; Heusinger, Katharina; Beckmann, Matthias W.; Douglas, Julie A.; Shah, Kaanan P.; Chan, Heang-Ping; Helvie, Mark A.; Le Marchand, Loic; Kolonel, Laurence N.; Woolcott, Christy; Maskarinec, Gertraud; Haiman, Christopher; Giles, Graham G.; Baglietto, Laura; Krishnan, Kavitha; Southey, Melissa C.; Apicella, Carmel; Andrulis, Irene L.; Knight, Julia A.; Ursin, Giske; Grenaker Alnaes, Grethe I.; Kristensen, Vessela N.; Borresen-Dale, Anne-Lise; Gram, Inger Torhild; Bolla, Manjeet K.; Wang, Qin; Michailidou, Kyriaki; Dennis, Joe; Simard, Jacques; Paroah, Paul; Dunning, Alison M.; Easton, Douglas F.; Fasching, Peter A.; Pankratz, V. Shane; Hopper, John; Vachon, Celine M.

2015-01-01

Mammographic density measures adjusted for age and body mass index (BMI) are heritable predictors of breast cancer risk but few mammographic density-associated genetic variants have been identified. Using data for 10,727 women from two international consortia, we estimated associations between 77 common breast cancer susceptibility variants and absolute dense area, percent dense area and absolute non-dense area adjusted for study, age and BMI using mixed linear modeling. We found strong support for established associations between rs10995190 (in the region of ZNF365), rs2046210 (ESR1) and rs3817198 (LSP1) and adjusted absolute and percent dense areas (all p <10−5). Of 41 recently discovered breast cancer susceptibility variants, associations were found between rs1432679 (EBF1), rs17817449 (MIR1972-2: FTO), rs12710696 (2p24.1), and rs3757318 (ESR1) and adjusted absolute and percent dense areas, respectively. There were associations between rs6001930 (MKL1) and both adjusted absolute dense and non-dense areas, and between rs17356907 (NTN4) and adjusted absolute non-dense area. Trends in all but two associations were consistent with those for breast cancer risk. Results suggested that 18% of breast cancer susceptibility variants were associated with at least one mammographic density measure. Genetic variants at multiple loci were associated with both breast cancer risk and the mammographic density measures. Further understanding of the underlying mechanisms at these loci could help identify etiological pathways implicated in how mammographic density predicts breast cancer risk. PMID:25862352

Improving absolute gravity estimates by the L p -norm approximation of the ballistic trajectory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagornyi, V. D.; Svitlov, S.; Araya, A.

2016-04-01

Iteratively re-weighted least squares (IRLS) were used to simulate the L p -norm approximation of the ballistic trajectory in absolute gravimeters. Two iterations of the IRLS delivered sufficient accuracy of the approximation without a significant bias. The simulations were performed on different samplings and perturbations of the trajectory. For the platykurtic distributions of the perturbations, the L p -approximation with 3  <  p  <  4 was found to yield several times more precise gravity estimates compared to the standard least-squares. The simulation results were confirmed by processing real gravity observations performed at the excessive noise conditions.

Risk-Factor Profile of Living Kidney Donors: The Australia and New Zealand Dialysis and Transplant Living Kidney Donor Registry 2004-2012.

PubMed

Clayton, Philip A; Saunders, John R; McDonald, Stephen P; Allen, Richard D M; Pilmore, Helen; Saunder, Alan; Boudville, Neil; Chadban, Steven J

2016-06-01

Recent literature suggests that living kidney donation may be associated with an excess risk of end-stage kidney disease and death. Efforts to maximize access to transplantation may result in acceptance of donors who do not fit within current guidelines, potentially placing them at risk of adverse long-term outcomes. We studied the risk profile of Australian and New Zealand living kidney donors using data from the Australia and New Zealand Dialysis and Transplant Living Kidney Donor Registry over 2004 to 2012. We compared their predonation profile against national guidelines for donor acceptance. The analysis included 2,932 donors (mean age 48.8 ± 11.2 years, range 18-81), 58% female and 87% Caucasian. Forty (1%) had measured glomerular filtration rate less than 80 mL/min; 32 (1%) had proteinuria >300 mg/day; 589 (20%) were hypertensive; 495 (18%) obese; 9 (0.3%) were diabetic while a further 55 (2%) had impaired glucose tolerance; and 218 (7%) were current smokers. Overall 767 donors (26%) had at least one relative contraindication to donation and 268 (9%) had at least one absolute contraindication according to national guidelines. Divergence of current clinical practice from national guidelines has occurred. In the context of recent evidence demonstrating elevated long-term donor risk, rigorous follow-up and reporting of outcomes are now mandated to ensure safety and document any change in risk associated with such a divergence.

Breast Cancer Risk From Modifiable and Nonmodifiable Risk Factors Among White Women in the United States

PubMed Central

Maas, Paige; Barrdahl, Myrto; Joshi, Amit D.; Auer, Paul L.; Gaudet, Mia M.; Milne, Roger L.; Schumacher, Fredrick R.; Anderson, William F.; Check, David; Chattopadhyay, Subham; Baglietto, Laura; Berg, Christine D.; Chanock, Stephen J.; Cox, David G.; Figueroa, Jonine D.; Gail, Mitchell H.; Graubard, Barry I.; Haiman, Christopher A.; Hankinson, Susan E.; Hoover, Robert N.; Isaacs, Claudine; Kolonel, Laurence N.; Le Marchand, Loic; Lee, I-Min; Lindström, Sara; Overvad, Kim; Romieu, Isabelle; Sanchez, Maria-Jose; Southey, Melissa C.; Stram, Daniel O.; Tumino, Rosario; VanderWeele, Tyler J.; Willett, Walter C.; Zhang, Shumin; Buring, Julie E.; Canzian, Federico; Gapstur, Susan M.; Henderson, Brian E.; Hunter, David J.; Giles, Graham G; Prentice, Ross L.; Ziegler, Regina G.; Kraft, Peter; Garcia-Closas, Montse; Chatterjee, Nilanjan

2017-01-01

IMPORTANCE An improved model for risk stratification can be useful for guiding public health strategies of breast cancer prevention. OBJECTIVE To evaluate combined risk stratification utility of common low penetrant single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and epidemiologic risk factors. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Using a total of 17 171 cases and 19 862 controls sampled from the Breast and Prostate Cancer Cohort Consortium (BPC3) and 5879 women participating in the 2010 National Health Interview Survey, a model for predicting absolute risk of breast cancer was developed combining information on individual level data on epidemiologic risk factors and 24 genotyped SNPs from prospective cohort studies, published estimate of odds ratios for 68 additional SNPs, population incidence rate from the National Cancer Institute-Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program cancer registry and data on risk factor distribution from nationally representative health survey. The model is used to project the distribution of absolute risk for the population of white women in the United States after adjustment for competing cause of mortality. EXPOSURES Single nucleotide polymorphisms, family history, anthropometric factors, menstrual and/or reproductive factors, and lifestyle factors. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Degree of stratification of absolute risk owing to nonmodifiable (SNPs, family history, height, and some components of menstrual and/or reproductive history) and modifiable factors (body mass index [BMI; calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared], menopausal hormone therapy [MHT], alcohol, and smoking). RESULTS The average absolute risk for a 30-year-old white woman in the United States developing invasive breast cancer by age 80 years is 11.3%. A model that includes all risk factors provided a range of average absolute risk from 4.4% to 23.5% for women in the bottom and top deciles of the risk distribution, respectively. For women who were at the lowest and highest deciles of nonmodifiable risks, the 5th and 95th percentile range of the risk distribution associated with 4 modifiable factors was 2.9% to 5.0% and 15.5% to 25.0%, respectively. For women in the highest decile of risk owing to nonmodifiable factors, those who had low BMI, did not drink or smoke, and did not use MHT had risks comparable to an average woman in the general population. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE This model for absolute risk of breast cancer including SNPs can provide stratification for the population of white women in the United States. The model can also identify subsets of the population at an elevated risk that would benefit most from risk-reduction strategies based on altering modifiable factors. The effectiveness of this model for individual risk communication needs further investigation. PMID:27228256

12 CFR Appendix C to Part 325 - Risk-Based Capital for State Non-Member Banks: Market Risk

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... instrument is a covered debt instrument that is subject to a non-zero specific risk capital charge. (A) For... indices. (iii) A bank must multiply the absolute value of the current market value of each net long or... conversion. (iii)(A) A bank must multiply the absolute value of the current market value of each net long or...

Educational Inequalities in Post-Hip Fracture Mortality: A NOREPOS Study.

PubMed

Omsland, Tone K; Eisman, John A; Naess, Øyvind; Center, Jacqueline R; Gjesdal, Clara G; Tell, Grethe S; Emaus, Nina; Meyer, Haakon E; Søgaard, Anne Johanne; Holvik, Kristin; Schei, Berit; Forsmo, Siri; Magnus, Jeanette H

2015-12-01

Hip fractures are associated with high excess mortality. Education is an important determinant of health, but little is known about educational inequalities in post-hip fracture mortality. Our objective was to investigate educational inequalities in post-hip fracture mortality and to examine whether comorbidity or family composition could explain any association. We conducted a register-based population study of Norwegians aged 50 years and older from 2002 to 2010. We measured total mortality according to educational attainment in 56,269 hip fracture patients (NORHip) and in the general Norwegian population. Both absolute and relative educational inequalities in mortality in people with and without hip fracture were compared. There was an educational gradient in post-hip fracture mortality in both sexes. Compared with those with primary education only, the age-adjusted relative risk (RR) of mortality in hip fracture patients with tertiary education was 0.82 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.77-0.87) in men and 0.79 (95% CI 0.75-0.84) in women. Additional adjustments for Charlson comorbidity index, marital status, and number of children did not materially change the estimates. Regardless of educational attainment, the 1-year age-adjusted mortality was three- to fivefold higher in hip fracture patients compared with peers in the general population without fracture. The absolute differences in 1-year mortality according to educational attainment were considerably larger in hip fracture patients than in the population without hip fracture. Absolute educational inequalities in mortality were higher after hip fracture compared with the general population without hip fracture and were not mediated by comorbidity or family composition. Investigation of other possible mediating factors might help to identify new targets for interventions, based on lower educational attainment, to reduce post-hip fracture mortality. © 2015 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Gastrointestinal and liver disease in Adult Life After Childhood Cancer in Scandinavia: A population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Asdahl, Peter Haubjerg; Winther, Jeanette Falck; Bonnesen, Trine Gade; De Fine Licht, Sofie; Gudmundsdottir, Thorgerdur; Holmqvist, Anna Sällfors; Malila, Nea; Tryggvadottir, Laufey; Wesenberg, Finn; Dahlerup, Jens Frederik; Olsen, Jørgen Helge; Hasle, Henrik

2016-10-01

Survival after childhood cancer diagnosis has remarkably improved, but emerging evidence suggests that cancer-directed therapy may have adverse gastrointestinal late effects. We aimed to comprehensively assess the frequency of gastrointestinal and liver late effects among childhood cancer survivors and compare this frequency with the general population. Our population-based cohort study included all 1-year survivors of childhood and adolescent cancer in Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden diagnosed from the 1940s and 1950s. Our outcomes of interest were hospitalization rates for gastrointestinal and liver diseases, which were ascertained from national patient registries. We calculated standardized hospitalization rate ratios (RRs) and absolute excess rates comparing hospitalizations of any gastrointestinal or liver disease and for specific disease entities between survivors and the general population. The study included 31,132 survivors and 207,041 comparison subjects. The median follow-up in the hospital registries were 10 years (range: 0-42) with 23% of the survivors being followed at least to the age of 40 years. Overall, survivors had a 60% relative excess of gastrointestinal or liver diseases [RR: 1.6, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.6-1.7], which corresponds to an absolute excess of 360 (95% CI: 330-390) hospitalizations per 100,000 person-years. Survivors of hepatic tumors, neuroblastoma and leukemia had the highest excess of gastrointestinal and liver diseases. In addition, we observed a relative excess of several specific diseases such as esophageal stricture (RR: 13; 95% CI: 9.2-20) and liver cirrhosis (RR: 2.9; 95% CI: 2.0-4.1). Our findings provide useful information about the breadth and magnitude of late complications among childhood cancer survivors and can be used for generating hypotheses about potential exposures related to these gastrointestinal and liver late effects. © 2016 UICC.

49 CFR Appendix G to Part 222 - Excess Risk Estimates for Public Highway-Rail Grade Crossings

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 49 Transportation 4 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Excess Risk Estimates for Public Highway-Rail Grade Crossings G Appendix G to Part 222 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation... HIGHWAY-RAIL GRADE CROSSINGS Pt. 222, App. G Appendix G to Part 222—Excess Risk Estimates for Public...

49 CFR Appendix G to Part 222 - Excess Risk Estimates for Public Highway-Rail Grade Crossings

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Excess Risk Estimates for Public Highway-Rail Grade Crossings G Appendix G to Part 222 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation... HIGHWAY-RAIL GRADE CROSSINGS Pt. 222, App. G Appendix G to Part 222—Excess Risk Estimates for Public...

49 CFR Appendix G to Part 222 - Excess Risk Estimates for Public Highway-Rail Grade Crossings

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 49 Transportation 4 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Excess Risk Estimates for Public Highway-Rail Grade Crossings G Appendix G to Part 222 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation... HIGHWAY-RAIL GRADE CROSSINGS Pt. 222, App. G Appendix G to Part 222—Excess Risk Estimates for Public...

49 CFR Appendix G to Part 222 - Excess Risk Estimates for Public Highway-Rail Grade Crossings

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 49 Transportation 4 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Excess Risk Estimates for Public Highway-Rail Grade Crossings G Appendix G to Part 222 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation... HIGHWAY-RAIL GRADE CROSSINGS Pt. 222, App. G Appendix G to Part 222—Excess Risk Estimates for Public...

49 CFR Appendix G to Part 222 - Excess Risk Estimates for Public Highway-Rail Grade Crossings

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 49 Transportation 4 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Excess Risk Estimates for Public Highway-Rail Grade Crossings G Appendix G to Part 222 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation... HIGHWAY-RAIL GRADE CROSSINGS Pt. 222, App. G Appendix G to Part 222—Excess Risk Estimates for Public...

CANCER INCIDENCE IN THE AGRICULTURAL HEALTH STUDY

EPA Science Inventory

Despite low mortality and cancer incidence rates overall, farmers may experience excess risk of several cancers. These excesses have been observed in some, but not all, retrospective epidemiological studies of agricultural workers in several countries. Excess risk has been ob...

Alendronate for fracture prevention in postmenopause.

PubMed

Holder, Kathryn K; Kerley, Sara Shelton

2008-09-01

Osteoporosis is an abnormal reduction in bone mass and bone deterioration leading to increased fracture risk. Alendronate (Fosamax) belongs to the bisphosphonate class of drugs, which act to inhibit bone resorption by interfering with the activity of osteoclasts. To assess the effectiveness of alendronate in the primary and secondary prevention of osteoporotic fractures in postmenopausal women. The authors searched Central, Medline, and EMBASE for relevant randomized controlled trials published from 1966 to 2007. The authors undertook study selection and data abstraction in duplicate. The authors performed meta-analysis of fracture outcomes using relative risks, and a relative change greater than 15 percent was considered clinically important. The authors assessed study quality through reporting of allocation concealment, blinding, and withdrawals. Eleven trials representing 12,068 women were included in the review. Relative and absolute risk reductions for the 10-mg dose were as follows. For vertebral fractures, a 45 percent relative risk reduction was found (relative risk [RR] = 0.55; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.45 to 0.67). This was significant for primary prevention, with a 45 percent relative risk reduction (RR = 0.55; 95% CI, 0.38 to 0.80) and 2 percent absolute risk reduction; and for secondary prevention, with 45 percent relative risk reduction (RR = 0.55; 95% CI, 0.43 to 0.69) and 6 percent absolute risk reduction. For nonvertebral fractures, a 16 percent relative risk reduction was found (RR = 0.84; 95% CI, 0.74 to 0.94). This was significant for secondary prevention, with a 23 percent relative risk reduction (RR = 0.77; 95% CI, 0.64 to 0.92) and a 2 percent absolute risk reduction, but not for primary prevention (RR = 0.89; 95% CI, 0.76 to 1.04). There was a 40 percent relative risk reduction in hip fractures (RR = 0.60; 95% CI, 0.40 to 0.92), but only secondary prevention was significant, with a 53 percent relative risk reduction (RR = 0.47; 95% CI, 0.26 to 0.85) and a 1 percent absolute risk reduction. The only significance found for wrist fractures was in secondary prevention, with a 50 percent relative risk reduction (RR = 0.50; 95% CI, 0.34 to 0.73) and a 2 percent absolute risk reduction. For adverse events, the authors found no statistically significant difference in any included study. However, observational data raise concerns about potential risk for upper gastrointestinal injury and, less commonly, osteonecrosis of the jaw. At 10 mg of alendronate per day, clinically important and statistically significant reductions in vertebral, nonvertebral, hip, and wrist fractures were observed for secondary prevention. The authors found no statistically significant results for primary prevention, with the exception of vertebral fractures, for which the reduction was clinically important.

Presentation of Evidence in Continuing Medical Education Programs: A Mixed Methods Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Allen, Michael; MacLeod, Tanya; Handfield-Jones, Richard; Sinclair, Douglas; Fleming, Michael

2010-01-01

Introduction: Clinical trial data can be presented in ways that exaggerate treatment effectiveness. Physicians consider therapy more effective, and may be more likely to make inappropriate practice changes, when data are presented in relative terms such as relative risk reduction rather than in absolute terms such as absolute risk reduction and…

12 CFR 324.210 - Standardized measurement method for specific risk.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... purchased credit protection is capped at the current fair value of the transaction plus the absolute value... hedge has a specific risk add-on of zero if: (i) The debt or securitization position is fully hedged by... debt or securitization positions, an FDIC-supervised institution must multiply the absolute value of...

Italian cancer figures, report 2013: Multiple tumours.

PubMed

2013-01-01

This collaborative study, based on data collected by the network of Italian association of cancer registries (AIRTUM), provides updated estimates on the incidence risk of multiple primary cancer (MP). The objective is to highlight and quantify the bidirectional associations between different oncological diseases. The quantification of the excess or decreased risk of further cancers in cancer patients, in comparison with the general population, may contribute to understand the aetiology of cancer and to address clinical follow-up. Data herein presented were provided by AIRTUM population-based cancer registries, which cover nowadays 48% of the Italian population. This monograph utilizes the AIRTUM database (December 2012), considering all malignant cancer cases diagnosed between 1976 and 2010. All cases are coded according to ICD-O-3. Non-melanoma skin cancer cases, cases based on death certificate only, cases based on autopsy only, and cases with follow-up time equal to zero were excluded. To define multiple primaries, IARC-IACR rules were adopted (http://www.iacr.com.fr/MPrules_july2004.pdf). Data were subjected to standard quality control procedures (described in the AIRTUM data management protocol) and specific quality control checks defined for the present study. A cohort of cancer patients was followed over time from first cancer diagnosis until the date of second cancer diagnosis, death, or the end of follow-up, to evaluate whether the number of observed second cancer cases was greater than expected. Person years at risk (PY) were computed by first cancer site, geographic area (North, Centre, South and Islands), attained age, and attained calendar-year group. All second cancers diagnosed in the cohort's patients were included in the observed numbers of cases. The expected number of cancer cases was computed multiplying the accumulated PY by the expected rates, calculated from the AIRTUM database stratified by cancer site, geographic area, age, and calendar-year group. The Standardized Incidence Ratio (SIR) was calculated as the ratio of observed to expected cancer cases. The Excess Absolute Risk (EAR) beyond the expected amount were calculated subtracting the expected number of subsequent cancers from the observed number of cancer cases; the difference was then divided by the PY and the number of cancer cases in excess (or deficit) was expressed per 1,000 PY. Confidence intervals were stated at 95%. The two months (60 days) after first cancer diagnosis were defined as "synchronicity period", and in the main analysis observed and expected cases during this period were excluded. It was estimated the excess risk in the period after first diagnosis (≥ 0 months), excluding the synchronicity period (≥ 2 months), and during the following periods: 2-11, 12-59, 60-119 and 120 months after diagnosis. First-cancer-site-and-gender-specific sheets are presented, reporting both SIRs and EARs. For 5,979,338 person-years a cohort of 1,635,060 cancer patients (880,361 males and 754,699 females) diagnosed between 1976 and 2010 was followed. The mean follow-up length was 14 years. Overall, 85,399 metachronous (latency ≥2 months) cancers were observed, while 77,813 were expected during the study period: SIR: 1.10 (95%CI 1.09-1.10), EAR: 1.32 x 1,000 person-years (95%CI 1.19 - 1.46). The SIR was 1.08 (95%CI 1.08-1.09) for men (54,518 observed and 50,260 expected) and 1.12 (95%CI 1.11-1.13) for women (30,881/27,553), and the EAR 1.61 (95%CI 1.37-1.84) and 1.08 x 1,000 person-years (95%CI 0.93-1.24), respectively.Moreover, during the first two months after first cancer diagnosis (synchronous period) 14,807 cancers were observed while 3,536 were expected (SIR: 4.16; 95%CI 4.09-4.22); the SIR was 4.08 (95%CI 4.00-4.16) for men and 4.32 (95%CI 4.20-4.45) for women.The mean age of patients at first cancer diagnosis was 67.0 years among males and 65.8 among females.The risk of MP was related to age being higher for younger patients and lower for older ones. In relation to the time of first cancer diagnosis, the SIR was very high at the beginning and then decreased, although remaining constantly over 1, and then rose over time. No strong differences were evident across the different incidence periods, which all showed an increased MP risk.Women had higher SIRs than expected for 18 cancer sites, men for 12. The statistically significantly SIRs lower than 1 were 2 and 8, respectively. Increased overall MP risk was observed for patients of both sexes with a first primary in the oral cavity (SIR men: 1.93; SIR women: 1.48), pharynx (SIR men: 2.13; SIR women: 1.99), larynx (SIR men: 1.57; SIR women: 1.79), oesophagus (SIR men: 1.45; SIR women: 1.41), lung (SIR men: 1.09; SIR women: 1.13), kidney (SIR men: 1.14; SIR women: 1.15), urinary bladder (SIR men: 1.29; SIR women: 1.22), thyroid (SIR: 1.22 in both sexes), Hodgkin lymphoma (SIR men: 1.59; SIR women: 1.94), and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (SIR men: 1.13; SIR women: 1.12), and for the heterogeneous group "other sites" (SIR men: 1.09; SIR women: 1.07). Moreover, men had a higher MP risk if the first cancer was in the testis (SIR: 1.24), while the same was true for women with gallbladder (SIR: 1.21), skin melanoma (SIR: 1.17), bone (SIR: 1.41), breast (SIR: 1.12), cervix uteri (SIR: 1.23) and corpus uteri (SIR: 1.23), and ovarian cancer (SIR: 1.18). On the contrary, a first liver or pancreas cancer were associated with a decreased MP risk in both sexes (liver SIR: 0.86 and 0.81 for men and women, respectively; pancreas SIR: 0.70 and 0.78 for men and women, respectively), as were those of colon (SIR: 0.93), rectum (SIR: 0.83), gallbladder (SIR: 0.80), prostate (SIR: 0.93), mesothelioma (SIR: 0.65), and central nervous system (SIR: 0.82) among men. Among the cancers for which the EAR is statistically significant, those with higher Excess Absolute Risk of MP were those of the oral cavity (EAR: 16.0 x 1,000 person-years in men and 5.4 in women), pharynx (17.6 and 9.1), larynx (11.4 and 8.8), and oesophagus (8.5 and 4.8). This descriptive study provides quantitative information on the risk of developing a second cancer in an Italian population-based cohort of approximately 1.65 million cancer patients, compared to the risk of the general population. During the follow-up time (on average 14 years) cancer patients had an MP risk that was 10% higher in comparison to the general population and an Excess Absolute Risk of 1.32 x 1,000 person-years. Study of MPs and their risk measures are dependent on methods used in the calculation. The definition of MP is not univocal and using different rules can greatly change the number of cancers in a patient with MPs. However, the AIRTUM cancer registries adopt the same recommendations for MP definition. This monograph was therefore made possible by the shared rules and standards used by AIRTUM registries. The cancer site-specific sheets, which represent the core of the monograph, can be useful to highlight and quantify the bidirectional associations among different diseases and therefore provide indications for clinical follow-up. Lifestyle changes in more healthful directions can have a positive effect in the cancer patient population and should always be recommended.

Standard and reduced doses of dabigatran, rivaroxaban and apixaban for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation: a nationwide cohort study.

PubMed

Staerk, L; Gerds, T A; Lip, G Y H; Ozenne, B; Bonde, A N; Lamberts, M; Fosbøl, E L; Torp-Pedersen, C; Gislason, G H; Olesen, J B

2018-01-01

Comparative data of non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOAC) are lacking in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). We compared effectiveness and safety of standard and reduced dose NOAC in AF patients. Using Danish nationwide registries, we included all oral anticoagulant-naïve AF patients who initiated NOAC treatment (2012-2016). Outcome-specific and mortality-specific multiple Cox regressions were combined to compute average treatment effects as 1-year standardized differences in stroke and bleeding risks (g-formula). Amongst 31 522 AF patients, the distribution of NOAC/dose was as follows: dabigatran standard dose (22.4%), dabigatran-reduced dose (14.0%), rivaroxaban standard dose (21.8%), rivaroxaban reduced dose (6.7%), apixaban standard dose (22.9%), and apixaban reduced dose (12.2%). The 1-year standardized absolute risks of stroke/thromboembolism were 1.73-1.98% and 2.51-2.78% with standard and reduced NOAC dose, respectively, without statistically significant differences between NOACs for given dose level. Comparing standard doses, the 1-year standardized absolute risk (95% CI) for major bleeding was for rivaroxaban 2.78% (2.42-3.17%); corresponding absolute risk differences (95% CI) were for dabigatran -0.93% (-1.45% to -0.38%) and apixaban, -0.54% (-0.99% to -0.05%). The results for major bleeding were similar for reduced NOAC dose. The 1-year standardized absolute risk (95% CI) for intracranial bleeding was for standard dose dabigatran 0.19% (0.22-0.50%); corresponding absolute risk differences (95% CI) were for rivaroxaban 0.23% (0.06-0.41%) and apixaban, 0.18% (0.01-0.34%). Standard and reduced dose NOACs, respectively, showed no significant risk difference for associated stroke/thromboembolism. Rivaroxaban was associated with higher bleeding risk compared with dabigatran and apixaban and dabigatran was associated with lower intracranial bleeding risk compared with rivaroxaban and apixaban. © 2017 The Association for the Publication of the Journal of Internal Medicine.

Anthropometric measures and absolute cardiovascular risk estimates in the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle (AusDiab) Study.

PubMed

Chen, Lei; Peeters, Anna; Magliano, Dianna J; Shaw, Jonathan E; Welborn, Timothy A; Wolfe, Rory; Zimmet, Paul Z; Tonkin, Andrew M

2007-12-01

Framingham risk functions are widely used for prediction of future cardiovascular disease events. They do not, however, include anthropometric measures of overweight or obesity, now considered a major cardiovascular disease risk factor. We aimed to establish the most appropriate anthropometric index and its optimal cutoff point for use as an ancillary measure in clinical practice when identifying people with increased absolute cardiovascular risk estimates. Analysis of a population-based, cross-sectional survey was carried out. The 1991 Framingham prediction equations were used to compute 5 and 10-year risks of cardiovascular or coronary heart disease in 7191 participants from the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle Study (1999-2000). Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was used to compare measures of body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, and waist-to-hip ratio in identifying participants estimated to be at 'high', or at 'intermediate or high' absolute risk. After adjustment for BMI and age, waist-to-hip ratio showed stronger correlation with absolute risk estimates than waist circumference. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve for waist-to-hip ratio (0.67-0.70 in men, 0.64-0.74 in women) were greater than those for waist circumference (0.60-0.65, 0.59-0.71) or BMI (0.52-0.59, 0.53-0.66). The optimal cutoff points of BMI, waist circumference and waist-to-hip ratio to predict people at 'high', or at 'intermediate or high' absolute risk estimates were 26 kg/m2, 95 cm and 0.90 in men, and 25-26 kg/m2, 80-85 cm and 0.80 in women, respectively. Measurement of waist-to-hip ratio is more useful than BMI or waist circumference in the identification of individuals estimated to be at increased risk for future primary cardiovascular events.

Risk of acute myocardial infarction after the death of a significant person in one's life: the Determinants of Myocardial Infarction Onset Study.

PubMed

Mostofsky, Elizabeth; Maclure, Malcolm; Sherwood, Jane B; Tofler, Geoffrey H; Muller, James E; Mittleman, Murray A

2012-01-24

Acute psychological stress is associated with an abrupt increase in the risk of cardiovascular events. Intense grief in the days after the death of a significant person may trigger the onset of acute myocardial infarction (MI), but this relationship has not been systematically studied. We conducted a case-crossover analysis of 1985 participants from the multicenter Determinants of Myocardial Infarction Onset Study interviewed during index hospitalization for an acute MI between 1989 and 1994. We compared the observed number of deaths in the days preceding MI symptom onset with its expected frequency based on each patient's control information, defined as the occurrence of deaths in the period from 1 to 6 months before infarction. Among the 1985 subjects, 270 (13.6%) experienced the loss of a significant person in the prior 6 months, including 19 within 1 day of their MI. The incidence rate of acute MI onset was elevated 21.1-fold (95% confidence interval, 13.1-34.1) within 24 hours of the death of a significant person and declined steadily on each subsequent day. The absolute risk of MI within 1 week of the death of a significant person is 1 excess MI per 1394 exposed individuals at low (5%) 10-year MI risk and 1 per 320 among individuals at high (20%) 10-year risk. Grief over the death of a significant person was associated with an acutely increased risk of MI in the subsequent days. The impact may be greatest among individuals at high cardiovascular risk.

Methods for analyzing matched designs with double controls: excess risk is easily estimated and misinterpreted when evaluating traffic deaths.

PubMed

Redelmeier, Donald A; Tibshirani, Robert J

2018-06-01

To demonstrate analytic approaches for matched studies where two controls are linked to each case and events are accumulating counts rather than binary outcomes. A secondary intent is to clarify the distinction between total risk and excess risk (unmatched vs. matched perspectives). We review past research testing whether elections can lead to increased traffic risks. The results are reinterpreted by analyzing both the total count of individuals in fatal crashes and the excess count of individuals in fatal crashes, each time accounting for the matched double controls. Overall, 1,546 individuals were in fatal crashes on the 10 election days (average = 155/d), and 2,593 individuals were in fatal crashes on the 20 control days (average = 130/d). Poisson regression of total counts yielded a relative risk of 1.19 (95% confidence interval: 1.12-1.27). Poisson regression of excess counts yielded a relative risk of 3.22 (95% confidence interval: 2.72-3.80). The discrepancy between analyses of total counts and excess counts replicated with alternative statistical models and was visualized in graphical displays. Available approaches provide methods for analyzing count data in matched designs with double controls and help clarify the distinction between increases in total risk and increases in excess risk. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Waist circumference values equivalent to body mass index points for predicting absolute cardiovascular disease risks among adults in an Aboriginal community: a prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Adegbija, Odewumi; Hoy, Wendy E; Wang, Zhiqiang

2015-11-13

There have been suggestions that currently recommended waist circumference (WC) cut-off points for Australians of European origin may not be applicable to Aboriginal people who have different body habitus profiles. We aimed to generate equivalent WC values that correspond to body mass index (BMI) points for identifying absolute cardiovascular disease (CVD) risks. Prospective cohort study. An Aboriginal community in Australia's Northern Territory. From 1992 to 1998, 920 adults without CVD, with age, WC and BMI measurements were followed-up for up to 20 years. Incident CVD, coronary artery disease (CAD) and heart failure (HF) events during the follow-up period ascertained from hospitalisation data. We generated WC values with 10-year absolute risks equivalent for the development of CVD as BMI values (20-34 kg/m(2)) using the Weibull accelerated time-failure model. There were 211 incident cases of CVD over 13,669 person-years of follow-up. At the average age of 35 years, WC values with absolute CVD, CAD and HF risks equivalent to BMI of 25 kg/m(2) were 91.5, 91.8 and 91.7 cm, respectively, for males, and corresponding WC values were 92.5, 92.7 and 93 cm for females. WC values with equal absolute CVD, CAD and HF risks to BMI of 30 kg/m(2) were 101.7, 103.1 and 102.6 cm, respectively, for males, and corresponding values were 99.2, 101.6 and 101.5 cm for females. Association between WC and CVD did not depend on gender (p=0.54). WC ranging from 91 to 93 cm was equivalent to BMI 25 kg/m(2) for overweight, and 99 to 103 cm was equivalent to BMI of 30 kg/m(2) for obesity in terms of predicting 10-year absolute CVD risk. Replicating the absolute risk method in other Aboriginal communities will further validate the WC values generated for future development of WC cut-off points for Aboriginal people. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Inherent Conservatism in Deterministic Quasi-Static Structural Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Verderaime, V.

1997-01-01

The cause of the long-suspected excessive conservatism in the prevailing structural deterministic safety factor has been identified as an inherent violation of the error propagation laws when reducing statistical data to deterministic values and then combining them algebraically through successive structural computational processes. These errors are restricted to the applied stress computations, and because mean and variations of the tolerance limit format are added, the errors are positive, serially cumulative, and excessively conservative. Reliability methods circumvent these errors and provide more efficient and uniform safe structures. The document is a tutorial on the deficiencies and nature of the current safety factor and of its improvement and transition to absolute reliability.

Standard dose versus low dose non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants in Asian patients with atrial fibrillation: A meta-analysis of contemporary randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Wang, Kang-Ling; Giugliano, Robert P; Goto, Shinya; Chiu, Chun-Chih; Lin, Chun-Yi; Lai, En-Yu; Chiang, Chern-En

2016-12-01

Although randomized controlled trials (RCTs) indicated that standard dose non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs) were more compelling, low dose NOACs are commonly used in clinical practice in Asia. The purpose of this study was to assess the relative therapeutic benefit and risk of standard dose vs low dose NOACs in Asian patients enrolled in contemporary RCTs. We performed a prespecified meta-analysis of 3155 Asian patients with NOACs in the RE-LY (Randomized Evaluation of Long-Term Anticoagulation Therapy) and ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 (Effective Anticoagulation with Factor Xa Next Generation in Atrial Fibrillation-Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction 48) trials. Efficacy and safety with standard dose vs low dose NOACs were compared by risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) in a random-effects model. An evidence network incorporating additional Asian patients from ROCKET AF, J- ROCKET AF, and ARISTOTLE was constructed with the Bayesian method. Risks of stroke or systemic embolism and ischemic stroke were significantly reduced with standard dose vs low dose NOACs (RR 0.62, 95% CI 0.45-0.85; and RR 0.55, 95% CI 0.38-0.79, respectively). Rates of major, intracranial, and life-threatening bleeding with 2 dosing regimens were broadly similar (RR 1.31, 95% CI 0.74-2.33; RR 1.54, 95% CI 0.72-3.30; and RR 1.49, 95% CI 0.87-2.55, respectively). Absolute rates of all-cause mortality and the net clinical outcome with standard dose NOACs were lower but not statistically significant (absolute reduction 0.4% per year and 1.1% per year, respectively). Network meta-analyses demonstrated that standard dose NOACs had the most favorable risk-benefit profile among oral anticoagulants. In Asian patients, standard dose NOACs represent a more appealing therapeutic option than low dose NOACs, with a significant reduction in ischemic stroke without an excess of major bleeding. Copyright © 2016 Heart Rhythm Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Absolute Risk Aversion and the Returns to Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brunello, Giorgio

2002-01-01

Uses 1995 Italian household income and wealth survey to measure individual absolute risk aversion of 1,583 married Italian male household heads. Uses this measure as an instrument for attained education in a standard-log earnings equation. Finds that the IV estimate of the marginal return to schooling is much higher than the ordinary least squares…

12 CFR 217.210 - Standardized measurement method for specific risk

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... current fair value of the transaction plus the absolute value of the present value of all remaining... a securitization position and its credit derivative hedge has a specific risk add-on of zero if: (i... institution must multiply the absolute value of the current fair value of each net long or net short debt or...

12 CFR 3.210 - Standardized measurement method for specific risk

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... purchased credit protection is capped at the current fair value of the transaction plus the absolute value... specific risk add-on of zero if: (i) The debt or securitization position is fully hedged by a total return... absolute value of the current fair value of each net long or net short debt or securitization position in...

Age-specific impact of diabetes mellitus on the risk of cardiovascular mortality: An overview from the evidence for Cardiovascular Prevention from Observational Cohorts in the Japan Research Group (EPOCH-JAPAN).

PubMed

Hirakawa, Yoichiro; Ninomiya, Toshiharu; Kiyohara, Yutaka; Murakami, Yoshitaka; Saitoh, Shigeyuki; Nakagawa, Hideaki; Okayama, Akira; Tamakoshi, Akiko; Sakata, Kiyomi; Miura, Katsuyuki; Ueshima, Hirotsugu; Okamura, Tomonori

2017-03-01

Diabetes mellitus is a strong risk factor for cardiovascular disease. However, the age-specific association of diabetes with cardiovascular risk, especially in the elderly, remains unclear in non-Western populations. A pooled analysis was conducted using 8 cohort studies (mean follow-up period, 10.3 years) in Japan, combining the data from 38,854 individual participants without history of cardiovascular disease. In all, 1867 of the participants had diabetes, defined based on the 1998 World Health Organization criteria. The association between diabetes and the risk of death from cardiovascular disease, coronary heart disease (CHD), and stroke was estimated using a stratified Cox model, accounting for variability of baseline hazard functions among cohorts. During the follow-up, 1376 subjects died of cardiovascular disease (including 268 of coronary heart disease and 621 of stroke). Diabetes was associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular death after multivariable adjustment (hazard ratio [HR] 1.62; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.35-1.94). Similarly, diabetes was a risk factor for CHD (HR 2.13; 95% CI, 1.47-3.09) and stroke (HR 1.40; 95% CI, 1.05-1.85). In the age-stratified analysis of the risk of cardiovascular death, the relative effects of diabetes were consistent across age groups (p for heterogeneity = 0.18), whereas the excess absolute risks of diabetes were greater in participants in their 70s and 80s than in younger subjects. The management of diabetes is important to reduce the risk of death from cardiovascular disease, not only in midlife but also in late life, in the Japanese population. Copyright © 2016. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V.

Greater absolute risk for all subtypes of breast cancer in the US than Malaysia.

PubMed

Horne, Hisani N; Beena Devi, C R; Sung, Hyuna; Tang, Tieng Swee; Rosenberg, Philip S; Hewitt, Stephen M; Sherman, Mark E; Anderson, William F; Yang, Xiaohong R

2015-01-01

Hormone receptor (HR) negative breast cancers are relatively more common in low-risk than high-risk countries and/or populations. However, the absolute variations between these different populations are not well established given the limited number of cancer registries with incidence rate data by breast cancer subtype. We, therefore, used two unique population-based resources with molecular data to compare incidence rates for the 'intrinsic' breast cancer subtypes between a low-risk Asian population in Malaysia and high-risk non-Hispanic white population in the National Cancer Institute's surveillance, epidemiology, and end results 18 registries database (SEER 18). The intrinsic breast cancer subtypes were recapitulated with the joint expression of the HRs (estrogen receptor and progesterone receptor) and human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 (HER2). Invasive breast cancer incidence rates overall were fivefold greater in SEER 18 than in Malaysia. The majority of breast cancers were HR-positive in SEER 18 and HR-negative in Malaysia. Notwithstanding the greater relative distribution for HR-negative cancers in Malaysia, there was a greater absolute risk for all subtypes in SEER 18; incidence rates were nearly 7-fold higher for HR-positive and 2-fold higher for HR-negative cancers in SEER 18. Despite the well-established relative breast cancer differences between low-risk and high-risk countries and/or populations, there was a greater absolute risk for HR-positive and HR-negative subtypes in the US than Malaysia. Additional analytical studies are sorely needed to determine the factors responsible for the elevated risk of all subtypes of breast cancer in high-risk countries like the United States.

Explanations for side effect aversion in preventive medical treatment decisions

PubMed Central

Waters, Erika A.; Weinstein, Neil D.; Colditz, Graham A.; Emmons, Karen

2008-01-01

Objective Many laypeople demonstrate excessive sensitivity to negative side effects of medical treatments, which may lead them to refuse beneficial therapies. This Internet-based experiment investigated three possible explanations for such “side effect aversion.” One was derived from mental accounting, one examined the mere presence of a side effect, and one focused on computational difficulties. Design Participants (N = 5,379) were presented with a hypothetical cancer preventive treatment situation that was or was not accompanied by one or two small side effects. The side effects were either beneficial or harmful. In all conditions the net absolute risk reduction associated with the treatment was 15%. Main Outcome Measures Participants indicated their willingness to accept treatment and their perceptions of the treatment’s effects on their overall cancer risk. Results Data were consistent only with the “mere presence” explanation of side effect aversion, the idea that side effects act as a strong negative cue that directly affects treatment appraisal. The number of negative side effects did not influence treatment willingness. Conclusion Side effect aversion is a challenge to informed decision making. Specific mechanisms that produce side effect aversion should be identified. PMID:19290712

UPPER BOUND RISK ESTIMATES FOR MIXTURES OF CARCINOGENS

EPA Science Inventory

The excess cancer risk that might result from exposure to a mixture of chemical carcinogens usually is estimated with data from experiments conducted on individual chemicals. An upper bound on the total excess risk is estimated commonly by summing individual upper bound risk esti...

Current trends in survivorship of radiologists. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

A study was made of the deaths of physicians who entered the Radiological Society of North America (RSNA), the American College of Physicians (ACP), the American Academy of Ophthalmology and Otolaryngology (AAOO), the American Roentgen Ray Society (ARRS), and the American Association of Pathologists and Bacteriologists (AAPB) societies from the 1900's through 1969. The findings indicated an excess risk of cancer and of all-cause mortality in radiologists. The early cohorts of radiologists showed a significant excess risk of leukemia, skin cancer, and aplastic anemia compared to the other groups of physicians. After 1940, all entrants into these cohorts demonstrated nomore » excess risk of leukemia. An excess risk of multiple myeloma appeared in radiologists and a slight excess in otolaryngologists. In radiologists, the risk of all cause mortality appeared to begin about 8 to 9 years following entrance into the specialty and remained higher through the life span of those involved in this field; the high risk of all cancers appears to occur 10 to 12 years after entering the specialty.« less

The future impact of population growth and aging on coronary heart disease in China: projections from the Coronary Heart Disease Policy Model-China

PubMed Central

Moran, Andrew; Zhao, Dong; Gu, Dongfeng; Coxson, Pamela; Chen, Chung-Shiuan; Cheng, Jun; Liu, Jing; He, Jiang; Goldman, Lee

2008-01-01

Background China will experience an overall growth and aging of its adult population in coming decades. We used a computer model to forecast the future impact of these demographic changes on coronary heart disease (CHD) in China. Methods The CHD Policy Model is a validated state-transition, computer simulation of CHD on a national scale. China-specific CHD risk factor, incidence, case-fatality, and prevalence data were incorporated, and a CHD prediction model was generated from a Chinese cohort study and calibrated to age-specific Chinese mortality rates. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to CHD were calculated using standard methods. The projected population of China aged 35–84 years was entered, and CHD events, deaths, and DALYs were simulated over 2000–2029. CHD risk factors other than age and case-fatality were held at year 2000 levels. Sensitivity analyses tested uncertainty regarding CHD mortality coding, the proportion of total deaths attributable to CHD, and case-fatality. Results We predicted 7.8 million excess CHD events (a 69% increase) and 3.4 million excess CHD deaths (a 64% increase) in the decade 2020–2029 compared with 2000–2009. For 2030, we predicted 71% of almost one million annual CHD deaths will occur in persons ≥65 years old, while 67% of the growing annual burden of CHD death and disability will weigh on adults <65 years old. Substituting alternate CHD mortality assumptions led to 17–20% more predicted CHD deaths over 2000–2029, though the pattern of increases in CHD events and deaths over time remained. Conclusion We forecast that absolute numbers of CHD events and deaths will increase dramatically in China over 2010–2029, due to a growing and aging population alone. Recent data suggest CHD risk factor levels are increasing, so our projections may underestimate the extent of the potential CHD epidemic in China. PMID:19036167

ARCADE 2 Measurement of the Absolute Sky Brightness at 3-90 GHz

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fixsen, D. J.; Kogut, A.; Levin, S.; Limon, M.; Mirel, P.; Seiffert, M.; Singal, J.; Wollack, E.; Villela, T.; Wuensche, C. A.

2011-01-01

The ARCADE 2 instrument has measured the absolute temperature of the sky at frequencies 3, 8, 10, 30, and 90 GHz, uSing an open-aperture cryogenic instrument observing al balloon altitudes with no emissive windows between the beam-forming optics and the sky. An external blackbody calibrator provides an in situ reference. Systematic errors were greatly reduced by using differential radiometers and cooling all critical components to physical temperatures approximating the cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature. A linear model is used to compare the output of each radiometer to a set of thermometers on the instrument. Small correction. are made for the residual emission from the flight train, balloon, atmosphere, and foreground Galactic emission. The ARCADE 2 data alone show an excess radio rise of 54 +/- 6 mK at 3.3 GHz in addition to a CMB temperature of 2.731 +/- 0.004 K. Combining the ARCADE 2 data with data from the literature shows an excess power-law spectrum of T = 24.1 +/- 2.1 (K)(v/v(sub o)(exp -2.599+/-0.036 from 22 MHz to 10 GHz (v(sub 0) = 310 MHz) in addition to a CMB temperature of 2.725 +/- 0.001 K.

Trends in death rates among U.S. adults with and without diabetes between 1997 and 2006: findings from the National Health Interview Survey.

PubMed

Gregg, Edward W; Cheng, Yiling J; Saydah, Sharon; Cowie, Catherine; Garfield, Sanford; Geiss, Linda; Barker, Lawrence

2012-06-01

To determine whether all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) death rates declined between 1997 and 2006, a period of continued advances in treatment approaches and risk factor control, among U.S. adults with and without diabetes. We compared 3-year death rates of four consecutive nationally representative samples (1997-1998, 1999-2000, 2001-2002, and 2003-2004) of U.S. adults aged 18 years and older using data from the National Health Interview Surveys linked to National Death Index. Among diabetic adults, the CVD death rate declined by 40% (95% CI 23-54) and all-cause mortality declined by 23% (10-35) between the earliest and latest samples. There was no difference in the rates of decline in mortality between diabetic men and women. The excess CVD mortality rate associated with diabetes (i.e., compared with nondiabetic adults) decreased by 60% (from 5.8 to 2.3 CVD deaths per 1,000) while the excess all-cause mortality rate declined by 44% (from 10.8 to 6.1 deaths per 1,000). Death rates among both U.S. men and women with diabetes declined substantially between 1997 and 2006, reducing the absolute difference between adults with and without diabetes. These encouraging findings, however, suggest that diabetes prevalence is likely to rise in the future if diabetes incidence is not curtailed.

12 CFR Appendix E to Part 225 - Capital Adequacy Guidelines for Bank Holding Companies: Market Risk Measure

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... covered debt instrument that is subject to a non-zero specific risk capital charge. (A) For covered debt... indices. (iii) An organization must multiply the absolute value of the current market value of each net... multiply the absolute value of the current market value of each net long or short covered equity position...

Male gynecomastia and risk for malignant tumours – a cohort study

PubMed Central

Olsson, H; Bladstrom, A; Alm, P

2002-01-01

Background Men with gynecomastia may suffer from absolute or relative estrogen excess and their risk of different malignancies may be increased. We tested whether men with gynecomastia were at greater risk of developing cancer. Methods A cohort was formed of all the men having a histopathological diagnosis of gynecomastia at the Department of Pathology, University of Lund, following an operation for either uni- or bilateral breast enlargement between 1970–1979. All possible causes of gynecomastia were accepted, such as endogenous or exogenous hormonal exposure as well as cases of unknown etiology. Prior to diagnosis of gynecomastia eight men had a diagnosis of prostate carcinoma, two men a diagnosis of unilateral breast cancer and one had Hodgkin's disease. These patients were included in the analyses. The final cohort of 446 men was matched to the Swedish Cancer Registry, Death Registry and General Population Registry. Results At the end of the follow up in December 1999, the cohort constituted 8375.2 person years of follow-up time. A total of 68 malignancies versus 66.07 expected were observed; SIR = 1.03 (95% CI 0.80–1.30). A significantly increased risk for testicular cancer; SIR = 5.82 (95% CI 1.20–17.00) and squamous cell carcinoma of the skin; SIR = 3.21 (95% CI 1.71–5.48) were noted. The increased risk appeared after 2 years of follow-up. A non-significantly increased risk for esophageal cancer was also seen while no new cases of male breast cancer were observed. However, in the prospective cohort, diagnostic operations for gynecomastia may substantially have reduced this risk Conclusions There is a significant increased risk of testicular cancer and squamous cell carcinoma of the skin in men who have been operated on for gynecomastia. PMID:12383352

Ultra-processed foods, protein leverage and energy intake in the USA.

PubMed

Martínez Steele, Euridice; Raubenheimer, David; Simpson, Stephen J; Baraldi, Larissa Galastri; Monteiro, Carlos A

2018-01-01

Experimental studies have shown that human macronutrient regulation minimizes variation in absolute protein intake and consequently energy intake varies passively with dietary protein density ('protein leverage'). According to the 'protein leverage hypothesis' (PLH), protein leverage interacts with a reduction in dietary protein density to drive energy overconsumption and obesity. Worldwide increase in consumption of ultra-processed foods (UPF) has been hypothesized to be an important determinant of dietary protein dilution, and consequently an ecological driving force of energy overconsumption and the obesity pandemic. The present study examined the relationships between dietary contribution of UPF, dietary proportional protein content and the absolute intakes of protein and energy. National representative cross-sectional study. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2009-2010. Participants (n 9042) aged ≥2 years with at least one day of 24 h dietary recall data. We found a strong inverse relationship between consumption of UPF and dietary protein density, with mean protein content dropping from 18·2 to 13·3 % between the lowest and highest quintiles of dietary contribution of UPF. Consistent with the PLH, increase in the dietary contribution of UPF (previously shown to be inversely associated with protein density) was also associated with a rise in total energy intake, while absolute protein intake remained relatively constant. The protein-diluting effect of UPF might be one mechanism accounting for their association with excess energy intake. Reducing UPF contribution in the US diet may be an effective way to increase its dietary protein concentration and prevent excessive energy intake.

Changes in Doppler blood flow velocity in middle cerebral artery in response to airborne sound in low- and high-risk human fetuses.

PubMed

Dobrijević, Lj J; Ljubić, Aleksandar; Sovilj, Mirjana; Ribarić-Jankes, Ksenija; Miković, Zeljko; Cerović, Nikola

2009-10-01

To examine fetal auditory perception in low- and high-risk pregnancies in period from 27 to 31 weeks gestational age with the aim to establish diagnostic parameters in prenatal detection of the degree of hearing development in a fetus. Method of prenatal hearing screening was applied on 80 women divided in two groups: Control group (C=22), consisted of pregnant women with low-risk pregnancies, and Experimental group (E=58), consisted of pregnant women with high-risk pregnancies (pregnancies with diagnosis of: preterm delivery, hypertension and/or intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR), diabetes). PHS was applied in period from 27 to 31 weeks gestational age. Brain circulation changes in fetal middle cerebral artery (MCA) caused by defined sound stimulus, as the indicator of fetal auditory reactions, were registered on Doppler ultrasound apparatus. After visualization of MCA, a sound stimulus was delivered. The stimulus consisted of one defined sound which is a digitally produced sound with the intensity of 90 dB, frequency range of 1500-4500 Hz, and duration of 0.2s (click) and it was presented only once. Measurements in observed artery were taken before (baseline) and after defined sound stimulation. Results showed that the absolute and relative difference in Pulsatility index (baseline and after sound stimulation) were greater for the high-risk group compared to the low-risk group (absolute difference: mean=0.36 vs mean=0.36) (relative difference: mean = ∼ 18% vs mean = ∼ 12%). When the low-risk group and the three high-risk group mean pairs were compared using multiple t-test, the diabetic group differed from the low-risk and two other high-risk groups; the low-risk and the two other high-risk groups did not differ from each other. Fetuses from pregnancies with diagnosis of diabetes demonstrated the most expressive reactibility and significantly higher absolute and relative changes of Pi values (absolute difference: mean=0.54, relative difference: mean=25.49%). The values of Pulsatility index (Pi) registered by PHS in low- and high-risk pregnancies may be used as differential and diagnostic parameters in fetal auditory perception examination. Fetuses from pregnancies with diagnosis of diabetes demonstrated significantly higher absolute and relative changes of Pi values compared to other groups of examined fetuses.

Pre-Feedback Risk Expectancies and Reception of Low-Risk Health Feedback: Absolute and Comparative Lack of Reassurance.

PubMed

Gamp, Martina; Renner, Britta

2016-11-01

Personalised health-risk assessment is one of the most common components of health promotion programs. Previous research on responses to health risk feedback has commonly focused on the reception of bad news (high-risk feedback). The reception of low-risk feedback has been comparably neglected since it is assumed that good news is reassuring and readily received. However, field studies suggest mixed responses to low-risk health feedback. Accordingly, we examine whether pre-feedback risk expectancies can mitigate the reassuring effects of good news. In two studies (N = 187, N = 565), after assessing pre-feedback risk expectancies, participants received low-risk personalised feedback about their own risk of developing (the fictitious) Tucson Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (TCFS). Study 2 also included peer TCFS risk status feedback. Afterwards, self- and peer-related risk perception for TCFS was assessed. In both studies, participants who expected to be at high risk but received good news (unexpected low-risk feedback) showed absolute lack of reassurance. Specifically, they felt at significantly greater TCFS risk than participants who received expected good news. Moreover, the unexpected low-risk group even believed that their risk was as high as (Study 1) or higher (Study 2) than that of their peers (comparative lack of reassurance). Results support the notion that high pre-feedback risk expectancies can mitigate absolute and comparative reassuring effects of good news. © 2016 The International Association of Applied Psychology.

The trading time risks of stock investment in stock price drop

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jiang-Cheng; Tang, Nian-Sheng; Mei, Dong-Cheng; Li, Yun-Xian; Zhang, Wan

2016-11-01

This article investigates the trading time risk (TTR) of stock investment in the case of stock price drop of Dow Jones Industrial Average (ˆDJI) and Hushen300 data (CSI300), respectively. The escape time of stock price from the maximum to minimum in a data window length (DWL) is employed to measure the absolute TTR, the ratio of the escape time to data window length is defined as the relative TTR. Empirical probability density functions of the absolute and relative TTRs for the ˆDJI and CSI300 data evidence that (i) whenever the DWL increases, the absolute TTR increases, the relative TTR decreases otherwise; (ii) there is the monotonicity (or non-monotonicity) for the stability of the absolute (or relative) TTR; (iii) there is a peak distribution for shorter trading days and a two-peak distribution for longer trading days for the PDF of ratio; (iv) the trading days play an opposite role on the absolute (or relative) TTR and its stability between ˆDJI and CSI300 data.

Radiotherapy for stage I seminoma of the testis: Organ equivalent dose to partially in-field structures and second cancer risk estimates on the basis of a mechanistic, bell-shaped, and plateau model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mazonakis, Michalis, E-mail: mazonak@med.uoc.gr; Damilakis, John; Varveris, Charalambos

Purpose: The aim of the current study was to (a) calculate the organ equivalent dose (OED) and (b) estimate the associated second cancer risk to partially in-field critical structures from adjuvant radiotherapy for stage I seminoma of the testis on the basis of three different nonlinear risk models. Methods: Three-dimensional plans were created for twelve patients who underwent a treatment planning computed tomography of the abdomen. The plans for irradiation of seminoma consisted of para-aortic anteroposterior and posteroanterior fields giving 20 Gy to the target site with 6 MV photons. The OED of stomach, colon, liver, pancreas, and kidneys, thatmore » were partially included in the treatment volume, was calculated using differential dose–volume histograms. The mechanistic, bell-shaped, and plateau models were employed for these calculations provided that organ-specific parameters were available for the subsequent assessment of the excess absolute risk (EAR) for second cancer development. The estimated organ-specific lifetime risks were compared with the respective nominal intrinsic probabilities for cancer induction. Results: The mean OED, which was calculated from the patients’ treatment plans, varied from 0.54 to 6.61 Gy by the partially in-field organ of interest and the model used for dosimetric calculations. The difference between the OED of liver derived from the mechanistic model with those from the bell-shaped and plateau models was less than 1.8%. An even smaller deviation of 1.0% was observed for colon. For the rest organs of interest, the differences between the OED values obtained by the examined models varied from 8.6% to 50.0%. The EAR for stomach, colon, liver, pancreas, and kidney cancer induction at an age of 70 yr because of treatment of a typical 39-yr-old individual was up to 4.24, 11.39, 0.91, 3.04, and 0.14 per 10 000 persons-yr, respectively. Patient’s irradiation was found to elevate the lifetime intrinsic risks by 8.3%–63.0% depending upon the organ of interest and the model employed for risk analysis. Conclusions: Radiotherapy for stage I seminoma of the testis may result in an excess risk for the appearance of secondary malignancies in partially in-field organs. The organ- and model-dependent second cancer risk assessments of this study may be of value for patient counseling and follow-up.« less

Risk of lung cancer associated with domestic use of coal in Xuanwei, China: retrospective cohort study

PubMed Central

Chapman, Robert S; Silverman, Debra T; He, Xinghzhou; Hu, Wei; Vermeulen, Roel; Ning, Bofu; Fraumeni, Joseph F; Rothman, Nathaniel; Lan, Qing

2012-01-01

Objective To estimate the risk of lung cancer associated with the use of different types of coal for household cooking and heating. Setting Xuanwei County, Yunnan Province, China. Design Retrospective cohort study (follow-up 1976-96) comparing mortality from lung cancer between lifelong users of “smoky coal” (bituminous) and “smokeless coal” (anthracite). Participants 27 310 individuals using smoky coal and 9962 individuals using smokeless coal during their entire life. Main outcome measures Primary outcomes were absolute and relative risk of death from lung cancer among users of different types of coal. Unadjusted survival analysis was used to estimate the absolute risk of lung cancer, while Cox regression models compared mortality hazards for lung cancer between smoky and smokeless coal users. Results Lung cancer mortality was substantially higher among users of smoky coal than users of smokeless coal. The absolute risks of lung cancer death before 70 years of age for men and women using smoky coal were 18% and 20%, respectively, compared with less than 0.5% among smokeless coal users of both sexes. Lung cancer alone accounted for about 40% of all deaths before age 60 among individuals using smoky coal. Compared with smokeless coal, use of smoky coal was associated with an increased risk of lung cancer death (for men, hazard ratio 36 (95% confidence interval 20 to 65); for women, 99 (37 to 266)). Conclusions In Xuanwei, the domestic use of smoky coal is associated with a substantial increase in the absolute lifetime risk of developing lung cancer and is likely to represent one of the strongest effects of environmental pollution reported for cancer risk. Use of less carcinogenic types of coal could translate to a substantial reduction of lung cancer risk. PMID:22936785

Cause-specific risk of hospital admission related to extreme heat in older adults.

PubMed

Bobb, Jennifer F; Obermeyer, Ziad; Wang, Yun; Dominici, Francesca

Heat exposure is known to have a complex set of physiological effects on multiple organ systems, but current understanding of the health effects is mostly based on studies investigating a small number of prespecified health outcomes such as cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. To identify possible causes of hospital admissions during extreme heat events and to estimate their risks using historical data. Matched analysis of time series data describing daily hospital admissions of Medicare enrollees (23.7 million fee-for-service beneficiaries [aged ≥65 years] per year; 85% of all Medicare enrollees) for the period 1999 to 2010 in 1943 counties in the United States with at least 5 summers of near-complete (>95%) daily temperature data. Heat wave periods, defined as 2 or more consecutive days with temperatures exceeding the 99th percentile of county-specific daily temperatures, matched to non-heat wave periods by county and week. Daily cause-specific hospitalization rates by principal discharge diagnosis codes, grouped into 283 disease categories using a validated approach. Risks of hospitalization for fluid and electrolyte disorders, renal failure, urinary tract infection, septicemia, and heat stroke were statistically significantly higher on heat wave days relative to matched non-heat wave days, but risk of hospitalization for congestive heart failure was lower (P < .05). Relative risks for these disease groups were 1.18 (95% CI, 1.12-1.25) for fluid and electrolyte disorders, 1.14 (95% CI, 1.06-1.23) for renal failure, 1.10 (95% CI, 1.04-1.16) for urinary tract infections, 1.06 (95% CI, 1.00-1.11) for septicemia, and 2.54 (95% CI, 2.14-3.01) for heat stroke. Absolute risk differences were 0.34 (95% CI, 0.22-0.46) excess admissions per 100,000 individuals at risk for fluid and electrolyte disorders, 0.25 (95% CI, 0.12-0.39) for renal failure, 0.24 (95% CI, 0.09-0.39) for urinary tract infections, 0.21 (95% CI, 0.01-0.41) for septicemia, and 0.16 (95% CI, 0.10-0.22) for heat stroke. For fluid and electrolyte disorders and heat stroke, the risk of hospitalization increased during more intense and longer-lasting heat wave periods (P < .05). Risks were generally highest on the heat wave day but remained elevated for up to 5 subsequent days. Among older adults, periods of extreme heat were associated with increased risk of hospitalization for fluid and electrolyte disorders, renal failure, urinary tract infection, septicemia, and heat stroke. However, the absolute risk increase was small and of uncertain clinical importance.

Cause-Specific Risk of Hospital Admission Related to Extreme Heat in Older Adults

PubMed Central

Bobb, Jennifer F.; Obermeyer, Ziad; Wang, Yun; Dominici, Francesca

2015-01-01

IMPORTANCE Heat exposure is known to have a complex set of physiological effects on multiple organ systems, but current understanding of the health effects is mostly based on studies investigating a small number of prespecified health outcomes such as cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. OBJECTIVES To identify possible causes of hospital admissions during extreme heat events and to estimate their risks using historical data. DESIGN, SETTING, AND POPULATION Matched analysis of time series data describing daily hospital admissions of Medicare enrollees (23.7 million fee-for-service beneficiaries [aged ≥65 years] per year; 85% of all Medicare enrollees) for the period 1999 to 2010 in 1943 counties in the United States with at least 5 summers of near-complete (>95%) daily temperature data. EXPOSURES Heat wave periods, defined as 2 or more consecutive days with temperatures exceeding the 99th percentile of county-specific daily temperatures, matched to non–heat wave periods by county and week. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Daily cause-specific hospitalization rates by principal discharge diagnosis codes, grouped into 283 disease categories using a validated approach. RESULTS Risks of hospitalization for fluid and electrolyte disorders, renal failure, urinary tract infection, septicemia, and heat stroke were statistically significantly higher on heat wave days relative to matched non–heat wave days, but risk of hospitalization for congestive heart failure was lower (P < .05). Relative risks for these disease groups were 1.18 (95% CI, 1.12–1.25) for fluid and electrolyte disorders, 1.14 (95% CI, 1.06–1.23) for renal failure, 1.10 (95% CI, 1.04–1.16) for urinary tract infections, 1.06 (95% CI, 1.00–1.11) for septicemia, and 2.54 (95% CI, 2.14–3.01) for heat stroke. Absolute risk differences were 0.34 (95% CI, 0.22–0.46) excess admissions per 100 000 individuals at risk for fluid and electrolyte disorders, 0.25 (95% CI, 0.12–0.39) for renal failure, 0.24 (95% CI, 0.09–0.39) for urinary tract infections, 0.21 (95% CI, 0.01–0.41) for septicemia, and 0.16 (95% CI, 0.10–0.22) for heat stroke. For fluid and electrolyte disorders and heat stroke, the risk of hospitalization increased during more intense and longer-lasting heat wave periods (P < .05). Risks were generally highest on the heat wave day but remained elevated for up to 5 subsequent days. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Among older adults, periods of extreme heat were associated with increased risk of hospitalization for fluid and electrolyte disorders, renal failure, urinary tract infection, septicemia, and heat stroke. However, the absolute risk increase was small and of uncertain clinical importance. PMID:25536257

Assessment of uncertainties in radiation-induced cancer risk predictions at clinically relevant doses

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nguyen, J.; Moteabbed, M.; Paganetti, H., E-mail: hpaganetti@mgh.harvard.edu

2015-01-15

Purpose: Theoretical dose–response models offer the possibility to assess second cancer induction risks after external beam therapy. The parameters used in these models are determined with limited data from epidemiological studies. Risk estimations are thus associated with considerable uncertainties. This study aims at illustrating uncertainties when predicting the risk for organ-specific second cancers in the primary radiation field illustrated by choosing selected treatment plans for brain cancer patients. Methods: A widely used risk model was considered in this study. The uncertainties of the model parameters were estimated with reported data of second cancer incidences for various organs. Standard error propagationmore » was then subsequently applied to assess the uncertainty in the risk model. Next, second cancer risks of five pediatric patients treated for cancer in the head and neck regions were calculated. For each case, treatment plans for proton and photon therapy were designed to estimate the uncertainties (a) in the lifetime attributable risk (LAR) for a given treatment modality and (b) when comparing risks of two different treatment modalities. Results: Uncertainties in excess of 100% of the risk were found for almost all organs considered. When applied to treatment plans, the calculated LAR values have uncertainties of the same magnitude. A comparison between cancer risks of different treatment modalities, however, does allow statistically significant conclusions. In the studied cases, the patient averaged LAR ratio of proton and photon treatments was 0.35, 0.56, and 0.59 for brain carcinoma, brain sarcoma, and bone sarcoma, respectively. Their corresponding uncertainties were estimated to be potentially below 5%, depending on uncertainties in dosimetry. Conclusions: The uncertainty in the dose–response curve in cancer risk models makes it currently impractical to predict the risk for an individual external beam treatment. On the other hand, the ratio of absolute risks between two modalities is less sensitive to the uncertainties in the risk model and can provide statistically significant estimates.« less

Causes of death in people with liver cirrhosis in England compared with the general population: a population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Ratib, Sonia; Fleming, Kate M; Crooks, Colin J; Walker, Alex J; West, Joe

2015-08-01

There is a need for unbiased estimates of cause-specific mortality by etiology in patients with liver cirrhosis. The aim of this study is to use nationwide linked electronic routine healthcare data from primary and secondary care alongside the national death registry data to report such estimates. We identified from the linked Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) and English Hospital Episode Statistics adults with an incident diagnosis of liver cirrhosis linked to the Office for National Statistics between 1998 and 2009. Age-matched controls from the CPRD general population were selected. We calculated the cumulative incidence (adjusting for competing risks) and excess risk of death by 5 years from diagnosis for different causes of death, stratified by etiology and stage of disease. Five thousand one hundred and eighteen patients with cirrhosis were matched to 152,903 controls. Among compensated patients, the 5-year excess risk of liver-related death was higher than that of any other cause of death for all patients, except those of unspecified etiology. For example, those of alcohol etiology had 30.8% excess risk of liver-related death (95% confidence interval (CI): 27.9%, 33.1%) compared with 9.9% excess risk of non-liver-related death. However, patients of unspecified etiology had a higher excess risk of non-liver-related compared with liver-related death (10.7% vs. 6.7%). This was due to a high excess risk of non-liver neoplasm death (7.7%, 95% CI: 5.9%, 9.5%). All decompensated patients had a higher excess of liver-related mortality than any other cause. In order to reduce associated mortality among people with liver cirrhosis, patients' care pathways need to be tailored depending on the etiology and stage of the disease.

Sickle cell trait: what are the costs and benefits of screening?

PubMed

Shephard, Roy J

2016-12-01

Eight percent of African Americans are carriers of the sickle cell trait. Some regard this as a benign anomaly, but others point to incidents of sudden exercise-related death, calling for a preliminary screening of either all athletes or those of African-American ancestry. This brief review considers the costs and benefits of such screening. The Ovid/Health Star data-base was searched from 1996 to June 2015. 2014. The terms "exercise", "exercise therapy", "sports", "athletes", "physical activity/motor activity" and "physical fitness" were combined to yield 227,120 citations. Likewise, the terms "sickle cell trait", "sickle cell disease", "splenic infarction", "hemoglobin S" and "rhabdomyolysis" identified 12,325 citations. A combination of the 2 searches yielded 416 abstracts. Excluding items relating to animal research or forms of rhabdomyolysis other than sickling left 375 abstracts; 115 papers merited full examination. This material covered the risks of sickle cell trait and of screening (55 items), effects upon physical performance (31 items), cellular mechanisms (23 items), nutrition (4 items), and other topics (2 items). Supplemented material was drawn from reference lists and personal files. The tendency to sickling was provoked by excessive exercise relative to physical condition in hot or hypoxic conditions, and by local tissue acidosis, conditions that were best avoided by all athletes. The condition had little impact upon physical performance, but the relative risks of heat illness, exertional rhabdomyolysis, splenic infarction and sudden death were all increased by the sickle cell trait. The absolute number of critical incidents was nevertheless small, calling for close assessment of the costs and putative benefits of widespread screening. Sports physicians should be aware of the clinical picture of sickling and be prepared to treat it. Screening may be cost-effective if targeted to black athletes involved in certain sports, although it has yet to be demonstrated how far the diagnosis of sickle cell trait reduces the risk of death when exercising in an adverse environment. A better tactic may be to reduce risks for all competitors by educating athletes and their coaches to adopt an intensity of training appropriate to the individual's physical condition, to maintain full hydration, and to avoid exposure to excessive heat and hypoxia.

Clustering of risk factors for cardiometabolic diseases in low-income, female adolescents.

PubMed

Melo, Elza M F S de; Azevedo, George D; Silva, João B da; Lemos, Telma M A M; Maranhão, Técia M O; Freitas, Ana K M S O; Spyrides, Maria H; Costa, Eduardo C

2016-02-16

To assess the prevalence and clustering patterns of cardiometabolic risk factors among low-income, female adolescents. Cross-sectional study involving 196 students of public schools (11-19 years old). The following risk factors were considered in the analysis: excess weight, central obesity, dyslipidemia, high blood pressure, and high fasting glucose. The ratio between observed and expected prevalence and its confidence interval were used to identify clustering of risk factors that exceeded expected prevalence in the population. The most prevalent risk factors were dyslipidemia (70.9%), and central obesity (39.8%), followed by excess weight (29.6%), and high blood pressure (12.8%). A total of 42.9% of adolescents had two or more risk factors, and 24% had three or more. Excess weight, central obesity, and dyslipidemia were common risk factors in the clustering patterns that showed higher-than-expected prevalence. Clustering of risk factors (≥ two factors) among the adolescents showed considerable prevalence, and there was a non-casual coexistence of excess weight, central obesity, and dyslipidemia (mainly low HDL-cholesterol).

Late pregnancy reversal from excessive gestational weight gain lowers risk of childhood overweight--a cohort study.

PubMed

von Kries, Rüdiger; Chmitorz, Andrea; Rasmussen, Kathleen M; Bayer, Otmar; Ensenauer, Regina

2013-06-01

Whether reversal to adequate gestational weight gain (GWG) in the third trimester reverses the risk for childhood overweight associated with excessive GWG is assessed. In a retrospective cohort study in 6,665 mother-child pairs, pre-pregnancy weight and the temporal course of GWG were collected from medical records. Overweight as defined by International Obesity Task Force was assessed at a mean age of 5.8 years. Main exposures were exceeding week-specific cut-off values for GWG in the third trimester or any previous trimester. Logistic regression models, adjusted for possible confounding factors, were used to predict the risk of childhood overweight from excessive GWG in the third trimester with stratification by excessive GWG in previous trimesters. In the final model, women who avoided excessive GWG in the third trimester had children with a 31% (odds ratio [OR]: 0.69, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.59, 0.82) lower probability being overweight. A similar association was observed for reversing from excessive GWG in the first or second trimester to normal GWG in the third trimester: 27% (OR: 0.73, 95% CI: 0.53, 0.99). Avoidance of excessive GWG in the third trimester is associated with lower risk of childhood overweight even in case of excessive GWG in the first or second trimester. Copyright © 2013 The Obesity Society.

Decision-making in an era of cancer prevention via aspirin: New Zealand needs updated guidelines and risk calculators.

PubMed

Wilson, Nick; Selak, Vanessa; Blakely, Tony; Leung, William; Clarke, Philip; Jackson, Rod; Knight, Josh; Nghiem, Nhung

2016-03-11

Based on new systematic reviews of the evidence, the US Preventive Services Task Force has drafted updated guidelines on the use of low-dose aspirin for the primary prevention of both cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer. The Task Force generally recommends consideration of aspirin in adults aged 50-69 years with 10-year CVD risk of at least 10%, in who absolute health gain (reduction of CVD and cancer) is estimated to exceed absolute health loss (increase in bleeds). With the ongoing decline in CVD, current risk calculators for New Zealand are probably outdated, so it is difficult to be precise about what proportion of the population is in this risk category (roughly equivalent to 5-year CVD risk ≥5%). Nevertheless, we suspect that most smokers aged 50-69 years, and some non-smokers, would probably meet the new threshold for taking low-dose aspirin. The country therefore needs updated guidelines and risk calculators that are ideally informed by estimates of absolute net health gain (in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) per person) and cost-effectiveness. Other improvements to risk calculators include: epidemiological rigour (eg, by addressing competing mortality); providing enhanced graphical display of risk to enhance risk communication; and possibly capturing the issues of medication disutility and comparison with lifestyle changes.

Occupational factors and reproductive outcomes among a cohort of female veterinarians.

PubMed

Wilkins, J R; Steele, L L

1998-07-01

To estimate absolute and relative risks of preterm delivery (PTD) and small-for-gestational-age (SGA) births among a cohort of female veterinarians in relation to selected occupational factors, including clinical practice type (CPT). Retrospective cohort survey. 2,997 female graduates from US veterinary colleges between 1970 and 1980. Relevant health and occupational data were collected through a self-administered mail questionnaire with telephone follow-up of nonrespondents. Absolute and relative risks of PTD and SGA births were estimated in relation to maternal CPT at the time of conception and exposure to 13 occupational factors. Attempts were made to control confounding by use of multiple logistic regression analyses. Absolute and relative risks of PTD were highest for veterinarians employed in exclusively equine clinical practice. Although several increased, none of the CPT-specific relative risk estimates were significantly different from the null value of 1. Exposure-specific analyses indicated that occupational involvement with solvents among exclusively small animal practitioners was associated with the highest relative risk of PTD. A small number of SGA births limited information that could be obtained from these analyses. Overall absolute risks of PTD and SGA births among cohort members were much lower in comparison with the general female population. Given the large number of women currently practicing and entering the profession of veterinary medicine, clinical tasks associated with potential reproductive hazards should be approached with heightened awareness and increased caution, especially activities that may involve exposure to solvents.

Formatting modifications in GRADE evidence profiles improved guideline panelists comprehension and accessibility to information. A randomized trial.

PubMed

Vandvik, Per Olav; Santesso, Nancy; Akl, Elie A; You, John; Mulla, Sohail; Spencer, Frederick A; Johnston, Bradley C; Brozek, Jan; Kreis, Julia; Brandt, Linn; Zhou, Qi; Schünemann, Holger J; Guyatt, Gordon

2012-07-01

To determine the effects of formatting alternatives in Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) evidence profiles on guideline panelists' preferences, comprehension, and accessibility. We randomized 116 antithrombotic therapy guideline panelists to review one of two table formats with four formatting alternatives. After answering relevant questions, panelists reviewed the other format and reported their preferences for specific formatting alternatives. Panelists (88 of 116 invited [76%]) preferred presentation of study event rates over no study event rates (median 1 [interquartile range (IQR) 1] on 1-7 scale), absolute risk differences over absolute risks (median 2 [IQR 3]), and additional information in table cells over footnotes (median 1 [IQR 2]). Panelists presented with time frame information in the tables, and not only in footnotes, were more likely to correctly answer questions regarding time frame (58% vs. 11%, P<0.0001), and those presented with risk differences and not absolute risks were more likely to correctly interpret confidence intervals for absolute effects (95% vs. 54%, P<0.0001). Information was considered easy to find, easy to comprehend, and helpful in making recommendations regardless of table format (median 6, IQR 0-1). Panelists found information in GRADE evidence profiles accessible. Correct comprehension of some key information was improved by providing additional information in table and presenting risk differences. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk of secondary malignancies after radiation therapy for breast cancer: Comprehensive results.

PubMed

Burt, Lindsay M; Ying, Jian; Poppe, Matthew M; Suneja, Gita; Gaffney, David K

2017-10-01

To assess risks of secondary malignancies in breast cancer patients who received radiation therapy compared to patients who did not. The SEER database was used to identify females with a primary diagnosis of breast cancer as their first malignancy, during 1973-2008. We excluded patients with metastatic disease, age <18 years, no definitive surgical intervention, ipsilateral breast cancer recurrence, or who developed a secondary malignancy within 1 year of diagnosis. Standardized incidence ratios and absolute excess risk were calculated using SEER*Stat, version 8.2.1 and SAS, version 9.4. There were 374,993 patients meeting the inclusion criteria, with 154,697 who received radiation therapy. With a median follow-up of 8.9 years, 13% of patients (49,867) developed a secondary malignancy. The rate of secondary malignancies was significantly greater than the endemic rate in breast cancer patients treated without radiation therapy, (O/E 1.2, 95% CI 1.19-1.22) and with radiation therapy (O/E 1.33, 95% CI 1.31-1.35). Approximately 3.4% of secondary malignancies were attributable to radiation therapy. The increased risk of secondary malignancies in breast cancer patients treated with radiation therapy compared to those without was significant regardless of age at breast cancer diagnosis (p < 0.01) and more pronounced with longer latency periods. There was an increased risk of secondary malignancies for breast cancer patients both with and without radiation therapy compared to the general population. There was an increased risk in specific sites for patients treated with radiation therapy. This risk was most evident in young patients and who had longer latency periods. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prospectively-Identified Incident Testicular Cancer Risk in a Familial Testicular Cancer Cohort

PubMed Central

Pathak, Anand; Adams, Charleen D.; Loud, Jennifer T.; Nichols, Kathryn; Stewart, Douglas R.; Greene, Mark H.

2015-01-01

Background Human testicular germ cell tumors (TGCT) have a strong genetic component and a high familial relative risk. However, linkage analyses have not identified a rare, highly-penetrant familial TGCT (FTGCT) susceptibility locus. Currently, multiple low-penetrance genes are hypothesized to underlie the familial multiple-case phenotype. The observation that two is the most common number of affected individuals per family presents an impediment to FTGCT gene discovery. Clinically, the prospective TGCT risk in the multiple-case family context is unknown. Methods We performed a prospective analysis of TGCT incidence in a cohort of multiple-affected-person families and sporadic-bilateral-case families; 1,260 men from 140 families (10,207 person-years of follow-up) met our inclusion criteria. Age-, gender-, and calendar time-specific standardized incidence ratios (SIR) for TGCT relative to the general population were calculated using SEER*Stat. Results Eight incident TGCTs occurred during prospective FTGCT cohort follow-up (versus 0.67 expected; SIR=11.9; 95% confidence interval [CI]=5.1–23.4; excess absolute risk=7.2/10,000). We demonstrate that the incidence rate of TGCT is greater among bloodline male relatives from multiple-case testicular cancer families than that expected in the general population, a pattern characteristic of adult-onset Mendelian cancer susceptibility disorders. Two of these incident TGCTs occurred in relatives of sporadic-bilateral cases (0.15 expected; SIR=13.4; 95%CI=1.6–48.6). Conclusions Our data are the first indicating that despite relatively low numbers of affected individuals per family, members of both multiple-affected-person FTGCT families and sporadic-bilateral TGCT families comprise high-risk groups for incident testicular cancer. Impact Men at high TGCT risk might benefit from tailored risk stratification and surveillance strategies. PMID:26265202

Prospectively Identified Incident Testicular Cancer Risk in a Familial Testicular Cancer Cohort.

PubMed

Pathak, Anand; Adams, Charleen D; Loud, Jennifer T; Nichols, Kathryn; Stewart, Douglas R; Greene, Mark H

2015-10-01

Human testicular germ cell tumors (TGCT) have a strong genetic component and a high familial relative risk. However, linkage analyses have not identified a rare, highly penetrant familial TGCT (FTGCT) susceptibility locus. Currently, multiple low-penetrance genes are hypothesized to underlie the familial multiple-case phenotype. The observation that two is the most common number of affected individuals per family presents an impediment to FTGCT gene discovery. Clinically, the prospective TGCT risk in the multiple-case family context is unknown. We performed a prospective analysis of TGCT incidence in a cohort of multiple-affected-person families and sporadic-bilateral-case families; 1,260 men from 140 families (10,207 person-years of follow-up) met our inclusion criteria. Age-, gender-, and calendar time-specific standardized incidence ratios (SIR) for TGCT relative to the general population were calculated using SEER*Stat. Eight incident TGCTs occurred during prospective FTGCT cohort follow-up (versus 0.67 expected; SIR = 11.9; 95% CI, 5.1-23.4; excess absolute risk = 7.2/10,000). We demonstrate that the incidence rate of TGCT is greater among bloodline male relatives from multiple-case testicular cancer families than that expected in the general population, a pattern characteristic of adult-onset Mendelian cancer susceptibility disorders. Two of these incident TGCTs occurred in relatives of sporadic-bilateral cases (0.15 expected; SIR = 13.4; 95% CI, 1.6-48.6). Our data are the first to indicate that despite relatively low numbers of affected individuals per family, members of both multiple-affected-person FTGCT families and sporadic-bilateral TGCT families comprise high-risk groups for incident testicular cancer. Men at high TGCT risk might benefit from tailored risk stratification and surveillance strategies. ©2015 American Association for Cancer Research.

Risk of tuberculosis in a large sample of patients with coeliac disease--a nationwide cohort study.

PubMed

Ludvigsson, J F; Sanders, D S; Maeurer, M; Jonsson, J; Grunewald, J; Wahlström, J

2011-03-01

Research suggests a positive association between coeliac disease and tuberculosis (TB), but that research has often been limited to in-patients and small sample size. We examined the relationship between TB and coeliac disease. To examine the association of TB and coeliac disease. We collected biopsy data from all pathology departments in Sweden (n=28) to identify individuals who were diagnosed with coeliac disease between 1969 and 2007 (Marsh 3: villous atrophy; n=29,026 unique individuals). Population-based sex- and age-matched controls were selected from the Total Population Register. Using Cox regression, we calculated hazard ratios (HRs) for TB from data in the Swedish national health registers. Individuals with coeliac disease were at increased risk of TB (HR=2.0; 95% CI=1.3-3.0) (during follow-up, 31 individuals with coeliac disease and 74 reference individuals had a diagnosis of TB). The absolute risk of TB in patients with coeliac disease was 10/100,000 person-years with an excess risk of 5/100,000. Risk estimates were the highest in the first year. Restricting our outcome to a diagnosis of TB confirmed by (I) a record of TB medication (HR=2.9; 95% CI=1.0-8.3), (II) data in the National Surveillance System for Infectious Diseases in Sweden (HR=2.6; 95% CI=1.3-5.2) or (III) positive TB cultivation (HR=3.3; 95% CI=1.6-6.8) increased risk estimates. The positive association between coeliac disease and TB was also observed before the coeliac disease diagnosis (odds ratio=1.6; 95% CI=1.2-2.1). We found a moderately increased risk of tuberculosis in patients with coeliac disease. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

The Role of Calcium in Osteoporosis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arnaud, C. D.; Sanchez, S. D.

1991-01-01

Calcium requirements may vary throughout the lifespan. During the growth years and up to age 25 to 30, it is important to maximize dietary intake of calcium to maintain positive calcium balance and achieve peak bone mass, thereby possibly decreasing the risk of fracture when bone is subsequently lost. Calcium intake need not be greater than 800 mg/day during the relatively short period of time between the end of bone building and the onset of bone loss (30 to 40 years). Starting at age 40 to 50, both men and women lose bone slowly, but women lose bone more rapidly around the menopause and for about 10 years after. Intestinal calcium absorption and the ability to adapt to low calcium diets are impaired in many postmenopausal women and elderly persons owing to a suspected functional or absolute decrease in the ability of the kidney to produce 1,25(OH)2D2. The bones then become more and more a source of calcium to maintain critical extracellular fluid calcium levels. Excessive dietary intake of protein and fiber may induce significant negative calcium balance and thus increase dietary calcium requirements. Generally, the strongest risk factors for osteoporosis are uncontrollable (e.g., sex, age, and race) or less controllable (e.g., disease and medications). However, several factors such as diet, physical activity, cigarette smoking, and alcohol use are lifestyle related and can be modified to help reduce the risk of osteoporosis.

Enoxaparin vs. unfractionated heparin with fibrinolysis for ST-elevation myocardial infarction in elderly and younger patients: results from ExTRACT-TIMI 25.

PubMed

White, Harvey D; Braunwald, Eugene; Murphy, Sabina A; Jacob, Ashok J; Gotcheva, Nina; Polonetsky, Leonid; Antman, Elliott M

2007-05-01

To determine the effects of age on outcomes in patients with STEMI treated with a strategy of enoxaparin (ENOX) vs. unfractionated heparin (UFH). In the ExTRACT-TIMI 25 trial, 20,479 patients with STEMI were randomized in a double-blind fashion to UFH or ENOX. A novel reduced dose of ENOX was administered to patients >or=75 years, and a reduced dose in those with an estimated creatinine clearance of < 30 mL/min. Anti-Xa levels were measured in a subset of patients (n = 73). The exposure to anti-Xa over time was lower in the elderly (AUC(0-12 h) P < 0.0001; AUC(steady-state) P = 0.0046). The relative risk reduction (RR) with ENOX on the primary endpoint, i.e. death or non-fatal recurrent myocardial infarction, was greater in patients < 75 years (20%) than > 75 years (6%), but the absolute benefits were similar. When compared with UFH, ENOX was associated with an RR of 1.67 for major bleeding, but the magnitude of the excess risk tended to be lower (RR = 1.15) in patients >or= 75 years assigned to ENOX. A dose reduction of ENOX in the elderly appears to be helpful in ameliorating bleeding risk. A strategy of ENOX was superior to UFH in both young and elderly patients with STEMI treated with fibrinolysis.

Taxation of exhaustible resources. [Monograph

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dasgupta, P.; Heal, G.; Stiglitz, J.

1980-01-01

This paper analyzes the effect of taxation on the intertemporal allocation of an exhaustible resource. A general framework within which a large variety of taxes can be analyzed is developed and then applied to a number of specific taxes. It is shown that there exists a pattern of taxation which can generate essentially any desired pattern of resource usage. Many tax policies, however, have effects markedly different both from the effects that these policies would have in the case of produced commodities and from those which they are designed (or widely thought) to have. For instance, if extraction costs aremore » zero, a depletion allowance at a constant rate (widely thought to encourage the extraction of resources) has absolutely no effect; its gradual removal (usually thought to be preferable to a sudden removal) leads to faster rates of depletion (and lower prices) now, but higher prices in the future; which its sudden and unanticipated removal has absolutely no distortionary effect on the pattern of extraction. More generally, it is shown that the effects of tax structure on the patterns of extraction are critically dependent on expectations concerning future taxation. The changes in tax structure that have occurred in the past fifty years are of the kind that, if they were anticipated, (or if similar further changes are expected to occur in the future) lead to excessively fast exploitation of natural resources. However, if it is believed that current tax policies (including rates) will persist indefinitely, the current tax structure would lead to excessive conservationism. Thus, whether in fact current tax policies have lead to excessive conservationism is a moot question.« less

The Impact of Maternal Obesity and Excessive Gestational Weight Gain on Maternal and Infant Outcomes in Maine: Analysis of Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System Results from 2000 to 2010.

PubMed

Baugh, Nancy; Harris, David E; Aboueissa, AbouEl-Makarim; Sarton, Cheryl; Lichter, Erika

2016-01-01

The objective of this study is to understand the relationships between prepregnancy obesity and excessive gestational weight gain (GWG) and adverse maternal and fetal outcomes. Pregnancy risk assessment monitoring system (PRAMS) data from Maine for 2000-2010 were used to determine associations between demographic, socioeconomic, and health behavioral variables and maternal and infant outcomes. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed on the independent variables of age, race, smoking, previous live births, marital status, education, BMI, income, rurality, alcohol use, and GWG. Dependent variables included maternal hypertension, premature birth, birth weight, infant admission to the intensive care unit (ICU), and length of hospital stay of the infant. Excessive prepregnancy BMI and excessive GWG independently predicted maternal hypertension. A high prepregnancy BMI increased the risk of the infant being born prematurely, having a longer hospital stay, and having an excessive birth weight. Excessive GWG predicted a longer infant hospital stay and excessive birth weight. A low pregnancy BMI and a lower than recommended GWG were also associated with poor outcomes: prematurity, low birth weight, and an increased risk of the infant admitted to ICU. These findings support the importance of preconception care that promotes achievement of a healthy weight to enhance optimal reproductive outcomes.

Impact of Lifestyle and Metformin Interventions on the Risk of Progression to Diabetes and Regression to Normal Glucose Regulation in Overweight or Obese People With Impaired Glucose Regulation.

PubMed

Herman, William H; Pan, Qing; Edelstein, Sharon L; Mather, Kieren J; Perreault, Leigh; Barrett-Connor, Elizabeth; Dabelea, Dana M; Horton, Edward; Kahn, Steven E; Knowler, William C; Lorenzo, Carlos; Pi-Sunyer, Xavier; Venditti, Elizabeth; Ye, Wen

2017-12-01

Both lifestyle and metformin interventions can delay or prevent progression to type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) in people with impaired glucose regulation, but there is considerable interindividual variation in the likelihood of receiving benefit. Understanding an individual's 3-year risk of progressing to DM and regressing to normal glucose regulation (NGR) might facilitate benefit-based tailored treatment. We used the values of 19 clinical variables measured at the Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP) baseline evaluation and Cox proportional hazards models to assess the 3-year risk of progression to DM and regression to NGR separately for DPP lifestyle, metformin, and placebo participants who were adherent to the interventions. Lifestyle participants who lost ≥5% of their initial body weight at 6 months and metformin and placebo participants who reported taking ≥80% of their prescribed medication at the 6-month follow-up were defined as adherent. Eleven of 19 clinical variables measured at baseline predicted progression to DM, and 6 of 19 predicted regression to NGR. Compared with adherent placebo participants at lowest risk of developing diabetes, participants at lowest risk of developing diabetes who adhered to a lifestyle intervention had an 8% absolute risk reduction (ARR) of developing diabetes and a 35% greater absolute likelihood of reverting to NGR. Participants at lowest risk of developing diabetes who adhered to a metformin intervention had no reduction in their risk of developing diabetes and a 17% greater absolute likelihood of reverting to NGR. Participants at highest risk of developing DM who adhered to a lifestyle intervention had a 39% ARR of developing diabetes and a 24% greater absolute likelihood of reverting to NGR, whereas those who adhered to the metformin intervention had a 25% ARR of developing diabetes and an 11% greater absolute likelihood of reverting to NGR. Unlike our previous analyses that sought to explain population risk, these analyses evaluate individual risk. The models can be used by overweight and obese adults with fasting hyperglycemia and impaired glucose tolerance to facilitate personalized decision-making by allowing them to explicitly weigh the benefits and feasibility of the lifestyle and metformin interventions. © 2017 by the American Diabetes Association.

Pneumonia diagnosis in childhood and incidence of leukaemia, lymphoma and brain cancer: a Danish nationwide cohort study.

PubMed

Søgaard, Kirstine Kobberøe; Farkas, Dóra Körmendiné; Sørensen, Henrik Toft

2017-12-29

There is an ongoing debate on the possible association between infections in early childhood and subsequent cancer risk, but it remains unclear if a hospital admission for infection is associated with risk of childhood cancer diagnosis. We examined if a hospital-based diagnosis of pneumonia was a clinical marker of the three most common childhood cancers. Population-based cohort study. Denmark, hospital diagnoses, 1994-2013. Using national health registries, we compared the observed incidence of leukaemia, lymphoma and brain cancer among 83 935 children with a hospital-based pneumonia diagnosis with that expected among children in the general population. We calculated absolute cancer risks and standardised incidence ratios (SIRs) as a measure of relative risk. The cancer SIRs were substantially increased during the first 6 months of follow-up; lymphoid leukaemia: 6.2 (95% CI 3.5 to 10.3); myeloid leukaemia: 14.8 (95% CI 6.0 to 30.6); Hodgkin's lymphoma: 60.8 (95% CI 26.2 to 120), non-Hodgkin's lymphoma: 15.9 (95% CI 5.2 to 37.2) and brain cancer: 4.4 (95% CI 1.9 to 8.7). The 6-month absolute risks of leukaemia, lymphoma and brain cancer were all low, reaching 0.05% when combined. An increased risk persisted beyond 5 years for non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and brain cancer. However, the 5-year absolute cancer risk was 0.14%. The short-term incidence of leukaemia, lymphoma and brain cancer was higher than expected and persisted beyond 5 years for non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and brain cancer. However, the absolute cancer risk was low. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Amenorrhea

MedlinePlus

... can include excess facial hair, hair loss, headache, lack of breast development, and vision changes. More >> Who is at risk of amenorrhea? Risk factors for amenorrhea include excessive exercise, obesity, eating disorders, a family history of amenorrhea ...

Risk analysis for worker exposure to benzene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hallenbeck, William H.; Flowers, Roxanne E.

1992-05-01

Cancer risk factors (characterized by route, dose, dose rate per kilogram, fraction of lifetime exposed, species, and sex) were derived for workers exposed to benzene via inhalation or ingestion. Exposure at the current Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) permissible exposure limit (PEL) and at leaking underground storage tank (LUST) sites were evaluated. At the current PEL of 1 ppm, the theoretical lifetime excess risk of cancer from benzene inhalation is ten per 1000. The theoretical lifetime excess risk for worker inhalation exposure at LUST sites ranged from 10 to 40 per 1000. These results indicate that personal protection should be required. The theoretical lifetime excess risk due to soil ingestion is five to seven orders of magnitude less than the inhalation risks.

Estimating cancer risk from 99mTc pyrophosphate imaging for transthyretin cardiac amyloidosis.

PubMed

Einstein, Andrew J; Shuryak, Igor; Castaño, Adam; Mintz, Akiva; Maurer, Mathew S; Bokhari, Sabahat

2018-05-30

Increasing recognition that transthyretin cardiac amyloidosis (ATTR-CA) is much more common than previously appreciated and the emergence of novel disease-modifying therapeutic agents have led to a paradigm shift in which ATTR-CA screening is considered in high-risk populations, such as patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) or aortic stenosis. Radiation risk from 99m Tc-pyrophosphate ( 99m Tc-PYP) scintigraphy, a test with very high sensitivity and specificity for ATTR-CA, has not been previously determined. Radiation doses to individual organs from 99m Tc-PYP were estimated using models developed by the Medical Internal Radiation Dose Committee and the International Commission on Radiological Protection. Excess future cancer risks were estimated from organ doses, using risk projection models developed by the National Academies and extended by the National Cancer Institute. Excess future risks were estimated for men and women aged 40-80 and compared to total (excess plus baseline) future risks. All-organ excess cancer risks (90% uncertainty intervals) ranged from 5.88 (2.45,11.4) to 12.2 (4.11,26.0) cases per 100,000 patients undergoing 99m Tc-PYP testing, were similar for men and women, and decreased with increasing age at testing. Cancer risks were highest to the urinary bladder, and bladder risk varied nearly twofold depending on which model was used. Excess 99m Tc-PYP-related cancers constituted < 1% of total future cancers to the critical organs. Very low cancer risks associated with 99m Tc-PYP testing suggest a favorable benefit-risk profile for 99m Tc-PYP as a screening test for ATTR-CA in high-risk populations, such as such as patients with HFpEF or aortic stenosis.

Projecting Individualized Absolute Invasive Breast Cancer Risk in US Hispanic Women

PubMed Central

John, Esther M.; Slattery, Martha L.; Gomez, Scarlett Lin; Yu, Mandi; LaCroix, Andrea Z.; Pee, David; Chlebowski, Rowan T.; Hines, Lisa M.; Thompson, Cynthia A.; Gail, Mitchell H.

2017-01-01

Background: There is no model to estimate absolute invasive breast cancer risk for Hispanic women. Methods: The San Francisco Bay Area Breast Cancer Study (SFBCS) provided data on Hispanic breast cancer case patients (533 US-born, 553 foreign-born) and control participants (464 US-born, 947 foreign-born). These data yielded estimates of relative risk (RR) and attributable risk (AR) separately for US-born and foreign-born women. Nativity-specific absolute risks were estimated by combining RR and AR information with nativity-specific invasive breast cancer incidence and competing mortality rates from the California Cancer Registry and Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program to develop the Hispanic risk model (HRM). In independent data, we assessed model calibration through observed/expected (O/E) ratios, and we estimated discriminatory accuracy with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) statistic. Results: The US-born HRM included age at first full-term pregnancy, biopsy for benign breast disease, and family history of breast cancer; the foreign-born HRM also included age at menarche. The HRM estimated lower risks than the National Cancer Institute’s Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (BCRAT) for US-born Hispanic women, but higher risks in foreign-born women. In independent data from the Women’s Health Initiative, the HRM was well calibrated for US-born women (observed/expected [O/E] ratio = 1.07, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.81 to 1.40), but seemed to overestimate risk in foreign-born women (O/E ratio = 0.66, 95% CI = 0.41 to 1.07). The AUC was 0.564 (95% CI = 0.485 to 0.644) for US-born and 0.625 (95% CI = 0.487 to 0.764) for foreign-born women. Conclusions: The HRM is the first absolute risk model that is based entirely on data specific to Hispanic women by nativity. Further studies in Hispanic women are warranted to evaluate its validity. PMID:28003316

Risk aversion and compliance in markets for pollution control.

PubMed

Stranlund, John K

2008-07-01

This paper examines the effects of risk aversion on compliance choices in markets for pollution control. A firm's decision to be compliant or not is independent of its manager's risk preference. However, non-compliant firms with risk-averse managers will have lower violations than otherwise identical firms with risk-neutral managers. The violations of non-compliant firms with risk-averse managers are independent of differences in their profit functions and their initial allocations of permits if and only if their managers' utility functions exhibit constant absolute risk aversion. However, firm-level characteristics do impact violation choices when managers have coefficients of absolute risk aversion that are increasing or decreasing in profit levels. Finally, in the equilibrium of a market for emissions rights with widespread non-compliance, risk aversion is associated with higher permit prices, better environmental quality, and lower aggregate violations.

Mortality attributable to excess adiposity in England and Wales in 2003 and 2015: explorations with a spreadsheet implementation of the Comparative Risk Assessment methodology.

PubMed

Kelly, Christopher; Pashayan, Nora; Munisamy, Sreetharan; Powles, John W

2009-06-30

Our aim was to estimate the burden of fatal disease attributable to excess adiposity in England and Wales in 2003 and 2015 and to explore the sensitivity of the estimates to the assumptions and methods used. A spreadsheet implementation of the World Health Organization's (WHO) Comparative Risk Assessment (CRA) methodology for continuously distributed exposures was used. For our base case, adiposity-related risks were assumed to be minimal with a mean (SD) BMI of 21 (1) Kg m-2. All cause mortality risks for 2015 were taken from the Government Actuary and alternative compositions by cause derived. Disease-specific relative risks by BMI were taken from the CRA project and varied in sensitivity analyses. Under base case methods and assumptions for 2003, approximately 41,000 deaths and a loss of 1.05 years of life expectancy were attributed to excess adiposity. Seventy-seven percent of all diabetic deaths, 23% of all ischaemic heart disease deaths and 14% of all cerebrovascular disease deaths were attributed to excess adiposity. Predictions for 2015 were found to be more sensitive to assumptions about the future course of mortality risks for diabetes than to variation in the assumed trend in BMI. On less favourable assumptions the attributable loss of life expectancy in 2015 would rise modestly to 1.28 years. Excess adiposity appears to contribute materially but modestly to mortality risks in England and Wales and this contribution is likely to increase in the future. Uncertainty centres on future trends of associated diseases, especially diabetes. The robustness of these estimates is limited by the lack of control for correlated risks by stratification and by the empirical uncertainty surrounding the effects of prolonged excess adiposity beginning in adolescence.

Neuroblastoma Survivors are at Increased Risk for Second Malignancies: A Report from the International Neuroblastoma Risk Group Project

PubMed Central

Applebaum, Mark A.; Vaksman, Zalman; Lee, Sang Mee; Hungate, Eric A.; Henderson, Tara O.; London, Wendy B.; Pinto, Navin; Volchenboum, Samuel L.; Park, Julie R.; Naranjo, Arlene; Hero, Barbara; Pearson, Andrew D.; Stranger, Barbara E.; Cohn, Susan L.; Diskin, Sharon J.

2017-01-01

Background The incidence of SMN within the first ten years of diagnosis in high-risk neuroblastoma patients treated with modern, intensive therapy is unknown. Further, the underlying germline genetics that contribute to SMN in these survivors are not known. Methods The International Neuroblastoma Risk Group (INRG) database of patients diagnosed from 1990–2010 was analyzed. SMN risk was accessed by cumulative incidence, standardized incidence ratios (SIR), and absolute excess risk (AER). A candidate gene-based association study evaluated genetic susceptibility to SMN in neuroblastoma survivors. Results Of the 5,987 patients in the INRG database with SMN data enrolled in a clinical trial, 43 (0.72%) developed a SMN. The 10-year cumulative incidence of SMN for high-risk patients was 1.8% (95% CI 1.0–2.6%) compared to 0.38% (95% CI: 0.22–0.94%) for low-risk patients (P=0.01). High-risk patients had an almost 18-fold higher incidence of SMN compared to age and sex matched controls (SIR=17.5 (95% CI: 11.4–25.3), AER=27.6). For patients treated on high- and intermediate-risk clinical trials, the SIR of acute myelogenous leukemia (AML) was 106.8 (95% CI: 28.7–273.4) and 127.7 (95%CI: 25.7–373.3), respectively. Variants implicating DNA repair genes XRCC3 (rs861539: P=0.006; Odds Ratio: 2.04, 95%CI: 1.19–3.46) and MSH2 (rs17036651: P=0.009; Odds Ratio: 0.26, 95% CI: 0.08–0.81) were associated with SMN. Conclusion The intensive multi-modality treatment strategy currently used to treat high-risk neuroblastoma is associated with a significantly increased risk of secondary AML. Defining the interactions of treatment exposures and genetic factors that promote the development of SMN is critical for optimizing survivorship care PMID:28033528

Excessive daytime sleepiness and metabolic syndrome in men with obstructive sleep apnea: a large cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Fu, Yiqun; Xu, Huajun; Xia, Yunyan; Qian, Yingjun; Li, Xinyi; Zou, Jianyin; Wang, Yuyu; Meng, Lili; Tang, Xulan; Zhu, Huaming; Zhou, Huiqun; Su, Kaiming; Yu, Dongzhen; Yi, Hongliang; Guan, Jian; Yin, Shankai

2017-10-03

Excessive daytime sleepiness is a common symptom in obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). Previous studies have showed that excessive daytime sleepiness is associated with some individual components of metabolic syndrome. We performed a large cross-sectional study to explore the relationship between excessive daytime sleepiness and metabolic syndrome in male OSA patients. A total of 2241 suspected male OSA patients were consecutively recruited from 2007 to 2013. Subjective daytime sleepiness was assessed using the Epworth sleepiness scale. Anthropometric, metabolic, and polysomnographic parameters were measured. Metabolic score was used to evaluate the severity of metabolic syndrome. Among the male OSA patients, most metabolic parameters varied by excessive daytime sleepiness. In the severe group, male OSA patients with excessive daytime sleepiness were more obese, with higher blood pressure, more severe insulin resistance and dyslipidemia than non-sleepy patients. Patients with metabolic syndrome also had a higher prevalence of excessive daytime sleepiness and scored higher on the Epworth sleepiness scale. Excessive daytime sleepiness was independently associated with an increased risk of metabolic syndrome (odds ratio =1.242, 95% confidence interval: 1.019-1.512). No substantial interaction was observed between excessive daytime sleepiness and OSA/ obesity. Excessive daytime sleepiness was related to metabolic disorders and independently associated with an increased risk of metabolic syndrome in men with OSA. Excessive daytime sleepiness should be taken into consideration for OSA patients, as it may be a simple and useful clinical indicator for evaluating the risk of metabolic syndrome.

Excess morbidity and mortality in patients with craniopharyngioma: a hospital-based retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Wijnen, Mark; Olsson, Daniel S; van den Heuvel-Eibrink, Marry M; Hammarstrand, Casper; Janssen, Joseph A M J L; van der Lely, Aart J; Johannsson, Gudmundur; Neggers, Sebastian J C M M

2018-01-01

Most studies in patients with craniopharyngioma did not investigate morbidity and mortality relative to the general population nor evaluated risk factors for excess morbidity and mortality. Therefore, the objective of this study was to examine excess morbidity and mortality, as well as their determinants in patients with craniopharyngioma. Hospital-based retrospective cohort study conducted between 1987 and 2014. We included 144 Dutch and 80 Swedish patients with craniopharyngioma identified by a computer-based search in the medical records (105 females (47%), 112 patients with childhood-onset craniopharyngioma (50%), 3153 person-years of follow-up). Excess morbidity and mortality were analysed using standardized incidence and mortality ratios (SIRs and SMRs). Risk factors were evaluated univariably by comparing SIRs and SMRs between non-overlapping subgroups. Patients with craniopharyngioma experienced excess morbidity due to type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) (SIR: 4.4, 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.8-6.8) and cerebral infarction (SIR: 4.9, 95% CI: 3.1-8.0) compared to the general population. Risks for malignant neoplasms, myocardial infarctions and fractures were not increased. Patients with craniopharyngioma also had excessive total mortality (SMR: 2.7, 95% CI: 2.0-3.8), and mortality due to circulatory (SMR: 2.3, 95% CI: 1.1-4.5) and respiratory (SMR: 6.0, 95% CI: 2.5-14.5) diseases. Female sex, childhood-onset craniopharyngioma, hydrocephalus and tumour recurrence were identified as risk factors for excess T2DM, cerebral infarction and total mortality. Patients with craniopharyngioma are at an increased risk for T2DM, cerebral infarction, total mortality and mortality due to circulatory and respiratory diseases. Female sex, childhood-onset craniopharyngioma, hydrocephalus and tumour recurrence are important risk factors. © 2018 European Society of Endocrinology.

Benefit and harm of intensive blood pressure treatment: Derivation and validation of risk models using data from the SPRINT and ACCORD trials

PubMed Central

Denton, Brian T.; Hayward, Rodney A.

2017-01-01

Background Intensive blood pressure (BP) treatment can avert cardiovascular disease (CVD) events but can cause some serious adverse events. We sought to develop and validate risk models for predicting absolute risk difference (increased risk or decreased risk) for CVD events and serious adverse events from intensive BP therapy. A secondary aim was to test if the statistical method of elastic net regularization would improve the estimation of risk models for predicting absolute risk difference, as compared to a traditional backwards variable selection approach. Methods and findings Cox models were derived from SPRINT trial data and validated on ACCORD-BP trial data to estimate risk of CVD events and serious adverse events; the models included terms for intensive BP treatment and heterogeneous response to intensive treatment. The Cox models were then used to estimate the absolute reduction in probability of CVD events (benefit) and absolute increase in probability of serious adverse events (harm) for each individual from intensive treatment. We compared the method of elastic net regularization, which uses repeated internal cross-validation to select variables and estimate coefficients in the presence of collinearity, to a traditional backwards variable selection approach. Data from 9,069 SPRINT participants with complete data on covariates were utilized for model development, and data from 4,498 ACCORD-BP participants with complete data were utilized for model validation. Participants were exposed to intensive (goal systolic pressure < 120 mm Hg) versus standard (<140 mm Hg) treatment. Two composite primary outcome measures were evaluated: (i) CVD events/deaths (myocardial infarction, acute coronary syndrome, stroke, congestive heart failure, or CVD death), and (ii) serious adverse events (hypotension, syncope, electrolyte abnormalities, bradycardia, or acute kidney injury/failure). The model for CVD chosen through elastic net regularization included interaction terms suggesting that older age, black race, higher diastolic BP, and higher lipids were associated with greater CVD risk reduction benefits from intensive treatment, while current smoking was associated with fewer benefits. The model for serious adverse events chosen through elastic net regularization suggested that male sex, current smoking, statin use, elevated creatinine, and higher lipids were associated with greater risk of serious adverse events from intensive treatment. SPRINT participants in the highest predicted benefit subgroup had a number needed to treat (NNT) of 24 to prevent 1 CVD event/death over 5 years (absolute risk reduction [ARR] = 0.042, 95% CI: 0.018, 0.066; P = 0.001), those in the middle predicted benefit subgroup had a NNT of 76 (ARR = 0.013, 95% CI: −0.0001, 0.026; P = 0.053), and those in the lowest subgroup had no significant risk reduction (ARR = 0.006, 95% CI: −0.007, 0.018; P = 0.71). Those in the highest predicted harm subgroup had a number needed to harm (NNH) of 27 to induce 1 serious adverse event (absolute risk increase [ARI] = 0.038, 95% CI: 0.014, 0.061; P = 0.002), those in the middle predicted harm subgroup had a NNH of 41 (ARI = 0.025, 95% CI: 0.012, 0.038; P < 0.001), and those in the lowest subgroup had no significant risk increase (ARI = −0.007, 95% CI: −0.043, 0.030; P = 0.72). In ACCORD-BP, participants in the highest subgroup of predicted benefit had significant absolute CVD risk reduction, but the overall ACCORD-BP participant sample was skewed towards participants with less predicted benefit and more predicted risk than in SPRINT. The models chosen through traditional backwards selection had similar ability to identify absolute risk difference for CVD as the elastic net models, but poorer ability to correctly identify absolute risk difference for serious adverse events. A key limitation of the analysis is the limited sample size of the ACCORD-BP trial, which expanded confidence intervals for ARI among persons with type 2 diabetes. Additionally, it is not possible to mechanistically explain the physiological relationships explaining the heterogeneous treatment effects captured by the models, since the study was an observational secondary data analysis. Conclusions We found that predictive models could help identify subgroups of participants in both SPRINT and ACCORD-BP who had lower versus higher ARRs in CVD events/deaths with intensive BP treatment, and participants who had lower versus higher ARIs in serious adverse events. PMID:29040268

Analysis of Dose Response for Circulatory Disease After Radiotherapy for Benign Disease

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Little, Mark P., E-mail: mark.little@nih.gov; Kleinerman, Ruth A.; Stovall, Marilyn

Purpose: To assess the shape of the dose-response for various circulatory disease endpoints, and modifiers by age and time since exposure. Methods and Materials: This was an analysis of the US peptic ulcer data testing for heterogeneity of radiogenic risk by circulatory disease endpoint (ischemic heart, cerebrovascular, other circulatory disease). Results: There were significant excess risks for all circulatory disease, with an excess relative risk Gy{sup -1} of 0.082 (95% CI 0.031-0.140), and ischemic heart disease, with an excess relative risk Gy{sup -1} of 0.102 (95% CI 0.039-0.174) (both p = 0.01), and indications of excess risk for stroke. Theremore » were no statistically significant (p > 0.2) differences between risks by endpoint, and few indications of curvature in the dose-response. There were significant (p < 0.001) modifications of relative risk by time since exposure, the magnitude of which did not vary between endpoints (p > 0.2). Risk modifications were similar if analysis was restricted to patients receiving radiation, although the relative risks were slightly larger and the risk of stroke failed to be significant. The slopes of the dose-response were generally consistent with those observed in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors and in occupationally and medically exposed groups. Conclusions: There were excess risks for a variety of circulatory diseases in this dataset, with significant modification of risk by time since exposure. The consistency of the dose-response slopes with those observed in radiotherapeutically treated groups at much higher dose, as well as in lower dose-exposed cohorts such as the Japanese atomic bomb survivors and nuclear workers, implies that there may be little sparing effect of fractionation of dose or low-dose-rate exposure.« less

iTRAQ Analysis Reveals Mechanisms of Growth Defects Due to Excess Zinc in Arabidopsis1[W][OA

PubMed Central

Fukao, Yoichiro; Ferjani, Ali; Tomioka, Rie; Nagasaki, Nahoko; Kurata, Rie; Nishimori, Yuka; Fujiwara, Masayuki; Maeshima, Masayoshi

2011-01-01

The micronutrient zinc is essential for all living organisms, but it is toxic at high concentrations. Here, to understand the effects of excess zinc on plant cells, we performed an iTRAQ (for isobaric tags for relative and absolute quantification)-based quantitative proteomics approach to analyze microsomal proteins from Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana) roots. Our approach was sensitive enough to identify 521 proteins, including several membrane proteins. Among them, IRT1, an iron and zinc transporter, and FRO2, a ferric-chelate reductase, increased greatly in response to excess zinc. The expression of these two genes has been previously reported to increase under iron-deficient conditions. Indeed, the concentration of iron was significantly decreased in roots and shoots under excess zinc. Also, seven subunits of the vacuolar H+-ATPase (V-ATPase), a proton pump on the tonoplast and endosome, were identified, and three of them decreased significantly in response to excess zinc. In addition, excess zinc in the wild type decreased V-ATPase activity and length of roots and cells to levels comparable to those of the untreated de-etiolated3-1 mutant, which bears a mutation in V-ATPase subunit C. Interestingly, excess zinc led to the formation of branched and abnormally shaped root hairs, a phenotype that correlates with decreased levels of proteins of several root hair-defective mutants. Our results point out mechanisms of growth defects caused by excess zinc in which cross talk between iron and zinc homeostasis and V-ATPase activity might play a central role. PMID:21325567

Absolute and relative densities of fast-food versus other restaurants in relation to weight status: Does restaurant mix matter?

PubMed

Polsky, Jane Y; Moineddin, Rahim; Dunn, James R; Glazier, Richard H; Booth, Gillian L

2016-01-01

Given the continuing epidemic of obesity, policymakers are increasingly looking for levers within the local retail food environment as a means of promoting healthy weights. To examine the independent and joint associations of absolute and relative densities of restaurants near home with weight status in a large, urban, population-based sample of adults. We studied 10,199 adults living in one of four cities in southern Ontario, Canada, who participated in the Canadian Community Health Survey (cycles 2005, 2007/08, 2009/10). Multivariate models assessed the association of weight status (obesity and body mass index) with absolute densities (numbers) of fast-food, full-service and other restaurants, and the relative density (proportion) of fast-food restaurants (FFR) relative to all restaurants within ~10-minute walk of residential areas. Higher numbers of restaurants of any type were inversely related to excess weight, even in models adjusting for a range of individual covariates and area deprivation. However, these associations were no longer significant after accounting for higher walkability of areas with high volumes of restaurants. In contrast, there was a direct relationship between the proportion of FFR relative to all restaurants and excess weight, particularly in areas with high volumes of FFR (e.g., odds ratio for obesity=2.55 in areas with 5+ FFR, 95% confidence interval: 1.55-4.17, across the interquartile range). Policies aiming to promote healthy weights that target the volume of certain retail food outlets in residential settings may be more effective if they also consider the relative share of outlets serving more and less healthful foods. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Trends in absolute and relative educational inequalities in four modifiable ischaemic heart disease risk factors: repeated cross-sectional surveys from the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT) 1984–2008

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background There has been an overall decrease in incident ischaemic heart disease (IHD), but the reduction in IHD risk factors has been greater among those with higher social position. Increased social inequalities in IHD mortality in Scandinavian countries is often referred to as the Scandinavian “public health puzzle”. The objective of this study was to examine trends in absolute and relative educational inequalities in four modifiable ischaemic heart disease risk factors (smoking, diabetes, hypertension and high total cholesterol) over the last three decades among Norwegian middle-aged women and men. Methods Population-based, cross-sectional data from The Nord-Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT): HUNT 1 (1984–1986), HUNT 2 (1995–1997) and HUNT 3 (2006–2008), women and men 40–59 years old. Educational inequalities were assessed using the Slope Index of Inequality (SII) and The Relative Index of Inequality (RII). Results Smoking prevalence increased for all education groups among women and decreased in men. Relative and absolute educational inequalities in smoking widened in both genders, with significantly higher absolute inequalities among women than men in the two last surveys. Diabetes prevalence increased in all groups. Relative inequalities in diabetes were stable, while absolute inequalities increased both among women (p = 0.05) and among men (p = 0.01). Hypertension prevalence decreased in all groups. Relative inequalities in hypertension widened over time in both genders. However, absolute inequalities in hypertension decreased among women (p = 0.05) and were stable among men (p = 0.33). For high total cholesterol relative and absolute inequalities remained stable in both genders. Conclusion Widening absolute educational inequalities in smoking and diabetes over the last three decades gives rise to concern. The mechanisms behind these results are less clear, and future studies are needed to assess if educational inequalities in secondary prevention of IHD are larger compared to educational inequalities in primary prevention of IHD. Continued monitoring of IHD risk factors at the population level is therefore warranted. The results emphasise the need for public health efforts to prevent future burdens of life-style-related diseases and to avoid further widening in socioeconomic inequalities in IHD mortality in Norway, especially among women. PMID:22471945

Subsequent Malignancies in Children Treated for Hodgkin's Disease: Associations With Gender and Radiation Dose

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Constine, Louis S.; Department of Pediatrics, James P. Wilmot Cancer Center at University of Rochester, Rochester, NY; Tarbell, Nancy

2008-09-01

Purpose: Subsequent malignant neoplasms (SMNs) are a dominant cause of morbidity and mortality in children treated for Hodgkin's disease (HD). We evaluated select demographic and therapeutic factors associated with SMNs, specifically gender and radiation dose. Methods and Materials: A total of 930 children treated for HD at five institutions between 1960 and 1990 were studied. Mean age at diagnosis was 13.6 years, and mean follow-up was 16.8 years (maximum, 39.4 years). Treatment included radiation alone (43%), chemotherapy alone (9%), or both (48%). Results: We found that SMNs occurred in 102 (11%) patients, with a 25-year actuarial rate of 19%. Withmore » 15,154 patient years of follow-up, only 7.18 cancers were expected (standardized incidence ratio [SIR] = 14.2; absolute excess risk [AER] = 63 cases/10,000 years). The SIR for female subjects, 19.93, was significantly greater than for males, 8.41 (p < 0.0001). After excluding breast cancer, the SIR for female patients was 15.4, still significantly greater than for male patients (p = 0.0012). Increasing radiation dose was associated with an increasing SIR (p = 0.0085). On univariate analysis, an increased risk was associated with female gender, increasing radiation dose, and age at treatment (12-16 years). Using logistic regression, mantle radiation dose increased risk, and this was 2.5-fold for female patients treated with more than 35 Gy primarily because of breast cancer. Conclusions: Survivors of childhood HD are at risk for SMNs, and this risk is greater for female individuals even after accounting for breast cancer. Although SMNs occur in the absence of radiation therapy, the risk increases with RT dose.« less

Subsequent malignancies in children treated for Hodgkin's disease: associations with gender and radiation dose.

PubMed

Constine, Louis S; Tarbell, Nancy; Hudson, Melissa M; Schwartz, Cindy; Fisher, Susan G; Muhs, Ann G; Basu, Swati K; Kun, Larry E; Ng, Andrea; Mauch, Peter; Sandhu, Ajay; Culakova, Eva; Lyman, Gary; Mendenhall, Nancy

2008-09-01

Subsequent malignant neoplasms (SMNs) are a dominant cause of morbidity and mortality in children treated for Hodgkin's disease (HD). We evaluated select demographic and therapeutic factors associated with SMNs, specifically gender and radiation dose. A total of 930 children treated for HD at five institutions between 1960 and 1990 were studied. Mean age at diagnosis was 13.6 years, and mean follow-up was 16.8 years (maximum, 39.4 years). Treatment included radiation alone (43%), chemotherapy alone (9%), or both (48%). We found that SMNs occurred in 102 (11%) patients, with a 25-year actuarial rate of 19%. With 15,154 patient years of follow-up, only 7.18 cancers were expected (standardized incidence ratio [SIR] = 14.2; absolute excess risk [AER] = 63 cases/10,000 years). The SIR for female subjects, 19.93, was significantly greater than for males, 8.41 (p < 0.0001). After excluding breast cancer, the SIR for female patients was 15.4, still significantly greater than for male patients (p = 0.0012). Increasing radiation dose was associated with an increasing SIR (p = 0.0085). On univariate analysis, an increased risk was associated with female gender, increasing radiation dose, and age at treatment (12-16 years). Using logistic regression, mantle radiation dose increased risk, and this was 2.5-fold for female patients treated with more than 35 Gy primarily because of breast cancer. Survivors of childhood HD are at risk for SMNs, and this risk is greater for female individuals even after accounting for breast cancer. Although SMNs occur in the absence of radiation therapy, the risk increases with RT dose.

The Impact of Maternal Obesity and Excessive Gestational Weight Gain on Maternal and Infant Outcomes in Maine: Analysis of Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System Results from 2000 to 2010

PubMed Central

Sarton, Cheryl; Lichter, Erika

2016-01-01

The objective of this study is to understand the relationships between prepregnancy obesity and excessive gestational weight gain (GWG) and adverse maternal and fetal outcomes. Pregnancy risk assessment monitoring system (PRAMS) data from Maine for 2000–2010 were used to determine associations between demographic, socioeconomic, and health behavioral variables and maternal and infant outcomes. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed on the independent variables of age, race, smoking, previous live births, marital status, education, BMI, income, rurality, alcohol use, and GWG. Dependent variables included maternal hypertension, premature birth, birth weight, infant admission to the intensive care unit (ICU), and length of hospital stay of the infant. Excessive prepregnancy BMI and excessive GWG independently predicted maternal hypertension. A high prepregnancy BMI increased the risk of the infant being born prematurely, having a longer hospital stay, and having an excessive birth weight. Excessive GWG predicted a longer infant hospital stay and excessive birth weight. A low pregnancy BMI and a lower than recommended GWG were also associated with poor outcomes: prematurity, low birth weight, and an increased risk of the infant admitted to ICU. These findings support the importance of preconception care that promotes achievement of a healthy weight to enhance optimal reproductive outcomes. PMID:27747104

Assessing the health effects associated with occupational radiation exposure in Korean radiation workers: protocol for a prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Seo, Songwon; Lim, Wan Young; Lee, Dal Nim; Kim, Jung Un; Cha, Eun Shil; Bang, Ye Jin; Lee, Won Jin; Park, Sunhoo; Jin, Young Woo

2018-03-30

The cancer risk of radiation exposure in the moderate-to-high dose range has been well established. However, the risk remains unclear at low-dose ranges with protracted low-dose rate exposure, which is typical of occupational exposure. Several epidemiological studies of Korean radiation workers have been conducted, but the data were analysed retrospectively in most cases. Moreover, groups with relatively high exposure, such as industrial radiographers, have been neglected. Therefore, we have launched a prospective cohort study of all Korean radiation workers to assess the health effects associated with occupational radiation exposure. Approximately 42 000 Korean radiation workers registered with the Nuclear Safety and Security Commission from 2016 to 2017 are the initial target population of this study. Cohort participants are to be enrolled through a nationwide self-administered questionnaire survey between 24 May 2016 and 30 June 2017. As of 31 March 2017, 22 982 workers are enrolled in the study corresponding to a response rate of 75%. This enrolment will be continued at 5-year intervals to update information on existing study participants and recruit newly hired workers. Survey data will be linked with the national dose registry, the national cancer registry, the national vital statistics registry and national health insurance data via personal identification numbers. Age-specific and sex-specific standardised incidence and mortality ratios will be calculated for overall comparisons of cancer risk. For dose-response assessment, excess relative risk (per Gy) and excess absolute risk (per Gy) will be estimated with adjustments for birth year and potential confounders, such as lifestyle factors and socioeconomic status. This study has received ethical approval from the institutional review board of the Korea Institute of Radiological and Medical Sciences (IRB No. K-1603-002-034). All participants provided written informed consent prior to enrolment. The findings of the study will be disseminated through scientific peer-reviewed journals and be provided to the public, including radiation workers, via the study website (http://www.rhs.kr/) and onsite radiation safety education. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Mind and body therapy for fibromyalgia.

PubMed

Theadom, Alice; Cropley, Mark; Smith, Helen E; Feigin, Valery L; McPherson, Kathryn

2015-04-09

Mind-body interventions are based on the holistic principle that mind, body and behaviour are all interconnected. Mind-body interventions incorporate strategies that are thought to improve psychological and physical well-being, aim to allow patients to take an active role in their treatment, and promote people's ability to cope. Mind-body interventions are widely used by people with fibromyalgia to help manage their symptoms and improve well-being. Examples of mind-body therapies include psychological therapies, biofeedback, mindfulness, movement therapies and relaxation strategies. To review the benefits and harms of mind-body therapies in comparison to standard care and attention placebo control groups for adults with fibromyalgia, post-intervention and at three and six month follow-up. Electronic searches of the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE (Ovid), EMBASE (Ovid), PsycINFO (Ovid), AMED (EBSCO) and CINAHL (Ovid) were conducted up to 30 October 2013. Searches of reference lists were conducted and authors in the field were contacted to identify additional relevant articles. All relevant randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of mind-body interventions for adults with fibromyalgia were included. Two authors independently selected studies, extracted the data and assessed trials for low, unclear or high risk of bias. Any discrepancy was resolved through discussion and consensus. Continuous outcomes were analysed using mean difference (MD) where the same outcome measure and scoring method was used and standardised mean difference (SMD) where different outcome measures were used. For binary data standard estimation of the risk ratio (RR) and its 95% confidence interval (CI) was used. Seventy-four papers describing 61 trials were identified, with 4234 predominantly female participants. The nature of fibromyalgia varied from mild to severe across the study populations. Twenty-six studies were classified as having a low risk of bias for all domains assessed. The findings of mind-body therapies compared with usual care were prioritised.There is low quality evidence that in comparison to usual care controls psychological therapies have favourable effects on physical functioning (SMD -0.4, 95% CI -0.6 to -0.3, -7.5% absolute change, 2 point shift on a 0 to 100 scale), pain (SMD -0.3, 95% CI -0.5 to -0.2, -3.5% absolute change, 2 point shift on a 0 to 100 scale) and mood (SMD -0.5, 95% CI -0.6 to -0.3, -4.8% absolute change, 3 point shift on a 20 to 80 scale). There is very low quality evidence of more withdrawals in the psychological therapy group in comparison to usual care controls (RR 1.38, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.69, 6% absolute risk difference). There is lack of evidence of a difference between the number of adverse events in the psychological therapy and control groups (RR 0.38, 95% CI 0.06 to 2.50, 4% absolute risk difference).There was very low quality evidence that biofeedback in comparison to usual care controls had an effect on physical functioning (SMD -0.1, 95% CI -0.4 to 0.3, -1.2% absolute change, 1 point shift on a 0 to 100 scale), pain (SMD -2.6, 95% CI -91.3 to 86.1, -2.6% absolute change) and mood (SMD 0.1, 95% CI -0.3 to 0.5, 1.9% absolute change, less than 1 point shift on a 0 to 90 scale) post-intervention. In view of the quality of evidence we cannot be certain that biofeedback has a little or no effect on these outcomes. There was very low quality evidence that biofeedback led to more withdrawals from the study (RR 4.08, 95% CI 1.43 to 11.62, 20% absolute risk difference). No adverse events were reported.There was no advantage observed for mindfulness in comparison to usual care for physical functioning (SMD -0.3, 95% CI -0.6 to 0.1, -4.8% absolute change, 4 point shift on a scale 0 to 100), pain (SMD -0.1, CI -0.4 to 0.3, -1.3% absolute change, less than 1 point shift on a 0 to 10 scale), mood (SMD -0.2, 95% CI -0.5 to 0.0, -3.7% absolute change, 2 point shift on a 20 to 80 scale) or withdrawals (RR 1.07, 95% CI 0.67 to 1.72, 2% absolute risk difference) between the two groups post-intervention. However, the quality of the evidence was very low for pain and moderate for mood and number of withdrawals. No studies reported any adverse events.Very low quality evidence revealed that movement therapies in comparison to usual care controls improved pain (MD -2.3, CI -4.2 to -0.4, -23% absolute change) and mood (MD -9.8, 95% CI -18.5 to -1.2, -16.4% absolute change) post-intervention. There was no advantage for physical functioning (SMD -0.2, 95% CI -0.5 to 0.2, -3.4% absolute change, 2 point shift on a 0 to 100 scale), participant withdrawals (RR 1.95, 95% CI 1.13 to 3.38, 11% absolute difference) or adverse events (RR 4.62, 95% CI 0.23 to 93.92, 4% absolute risk difference) between the two groups, however rare adverse events may include worsening of pain.Low quality evidence revealed that relaxation based therapies in comparison to usual care controls showed an advantage for physical functioning (MD -8.3, 95% CI -10.1 to -6.5, -10.4% absolute change) and pain (SMD -1.0, 95% CI -1.6 to -0.5, -3.5% absolute change, 2 point shift on a 0 to 78 scale) but not for mood (SMD -4.4, CI -14.5 to 5.6, -7.4% absolute change) post-intervention. There was no difference between the groups for number of withdrawals (RR 4.40, 95% CI 0.59 to 33.07, 31% absolute risk difference) and no adverse events were reported. Psychological interventions therapies may be effective in improving physical functioning, pain and low mood for adults with fibromyalgia in comparison to usual care controls but the quality of the evidence is low. Further research on the outcomes of therapies is needed to determine if positive effects identified post-intervention are sustained. The effectiveness of biofeedback, mindfulness, movement therapies and relaxation based therapies remains unclear as the quality of the evidence was very low or low. The small number of trials and inconsistency in the use of outcome measures across the trials restricted the analysis.

Risk-based indicators of Canadians' exposures to environmental carcinogens.

PubMed

Setton, Eleanor; Hystad, Perry; Poplawski, Karla; Cheasley, Roslyn; Cervantes-Larios, Alejandro; Keller, C Peter; Demers, Paul A

2013-02-12

Tools for estimating population exposures to environmental carcinogens are required to support evidence-based policies to reduce chronic exposures and associated cancers. Our objective was to develop indicators of population exposure to selected environmental carcinogens that can be easily updated over time, and allow comparisons and prioritization between different carcinogens and exposure pathways. We employed a risk assessment-based approach to produce screening-level estimates of lifetime excess cancer risk for selected substances listed as known carcinogens by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. Estimates of lifetime average daily intake were calculated using population characteristics combined with concentrations (circa 2006) in outdoor air, indoor air, dust, drinking water, and food and beverages from existing monitoring databases or comprehensive literature reviews. Intake estimates were then multiplied by cancer potency factors from Health Canada, the United States Environmental Protection Agency, and the California Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment to estimate lifetime excess cancer risks associated with each substance and exposure pathway. Lifetime excess cancer risks in excess of 1 per million people are identified as potential priorities for further attention. Based on data representing average conditions circa 2006, a total of 18 carcinogen-exposure pathways had potential lifetime excess cancer risks greater than 1 per million, based on varying data quality. Carcinogens with moderate to high data quality and lifetime excess cancer risk greater than 1 per million included benzene, 1,3-butadiene and radon in outdoor air; benzene and radon in indoor air; and arsenic and hexavalent chromium in drinking water. Important data gaps were identified for asbestos, hexavalent chromium and diesel exhaust in outdoor and indoor air, while little data were available to assess risk for substances in dust, food and beverages. The ability to track changes in potential population exposures to environmental carcinogens over time, as well as to compare between different substances and exposure pathways, is necessary to support comprehensive, evidence-based prevention policy. We used estimates of lifetime excess cancer risk as indicators that, although based on a number of simplifying assumptions, help to identify important data gaps and prioritize more detailed data collection and exposure assessment needs.

Chirality sensing with stereodynamic copper(I) complexes.

PubMed

De Los Santos, Zeus A; Legaux, Nicholas M; Wolf, Christian

2017-11-01

Three Cu(I) complexes derived from stereodynamic diphosphine ligands were synthesized and used for chirality sensing. The coordination of diamines and amino acids to these complexes generates distinct circular dichroism signals. The chiroptical sensor response allows determination of the absolute configuration and the enantiomeric excess of the analyte at low concentrations. This method is operationally simple, fast, and attractive for high-throughput sensing applications. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A Facile CD Protocol for Rapid Determination of Enantiomeric Excess and Concentration of Chiral Primary Amines

PubMed Central

Nieto, Sonia; Dragna, Justin M.; Anslyn, Eric V.

2010-01-01

A protocol for the rapid determination of the absolute configuration and enantiomeric excess of α-chiral primary amines with potential applications in asymmetric reaction discovery has been developed. The protocol requires derivatization of α-chiral primary amines via condensation with pyridine carboxaldehyde to quantitatively yield the corresponding imine. The Cu(I) complex with 2,2'-bis (diphenylphosphino)-1,1'-dinaphthyl (BINAP -CuI) with the imine yields a metal-to-ligand-charge-transfer band (MLCT) in the visible region of the circular dichroism spectrum upon binding. Diastereomeric host-guest complexes give CD signals of the same signs, but different amplitudes, allowing for differentiation of enantiomers. Processing the primary optical data from the CD spectrum with linear discriminant analysis (LDA) allows for the determination of absolute configuration and identification of the amines, and processing with a supervised multi-layer perceptron artifical neural network (MLP-ANN) allows for the simultaneous determination of ee and concentration. The primary optical data necessary to determine the ee of unknown samples is obtained in 2 minutes per sample. To demonstrate the utility of the protocol in asymmetric reaction discovery, the ee's and concentrations for an asymmetric metal catalyzed reaction are determined. The potential of the protocol's application in high-throughput screening (HTS) of ee is discussed. PMID:19946914

Agreement between gamma passing rates using computed tomography in radiotherapy and secondary cancer risk prediction from more advanced dose calculated models

PubMed Central

Balosso, Jacques

2017-01-01

Background During the past decades, in radiotherapy, the dose distributions were calculated using density correction methods with pencil beam as type ‘a’ algorithm. The objectives of this study are to assess and evaluate the impact of dose distribution shift on the predicted secondary cancer risk (SCR), using modern advanced dose calculation algorithms, point kernel, as type ‘b’, which consider change in lateral electrons transport. Methods Clinical examples of pediatric cranio-spinal irradiation patients were evaluated. For each case, two radiotherapy treatment plans with were generated using the same prescribed dose to the target resulting in different number of monitor units (MUs) per field. The dose distributions were calculated, respectively, using both algorithms types. A gamma index (γ) analysis was used to compare dose distribution in the lung. The organ equivalent dose (OED) has been calculated with three different models, the linear, the linear-exponential and the plateau dose response curves. The excess absolute risk ratio (EAR) was also evaluated as (EAR = OED type ‘b’ / OED type ‘a’). Results The γ analysis results indicated an acceptable dose distribution agreement of 95% with 3%/3 mm. Although, the γ-maps displayed dose displacement >1 mm around the healthy lungs. Compared to type ‘a’, the OED values from type ‘b’ dose distributions’ were about 8% to 16% higher, leading to an EAR ratio >1, ranged from 1.08 to 1.13 depending on SCR models. Conclusions The shift of dose calculation in radiotherapy, according to the algorithm, can significantly influence the SCR prediction and the plan optimization, since OEDs are calculated from DVH for a specific treatment. The agreement between dose distribution and SCR prediction depends on dose response models and epidemiological data. In addition, the γ passing rates of 3%/3 mm does not translate the difference, up to 15%, in the predictions of SCR resulting from alternative algorithms. Considering that modern algorithms are more accurate, showing more precisely the dose distributions, but that the prediction of absolute SCR is still very imprecise, only the EAR ratio could be used to rank radiotherapy plans. PMID:28811995

Risk aversion affects economic values of blue fox breeding scheme.

PubMed

Peura, J; Kempe, R; Strandén, I; Rydhmer, L

2016-12-01

The profit and production of an average Finnish blue fox farm was simulated using a deterministic bio-economic farm model. Risk was included using Arrow-Prat absolute risk aversion coefficient and profit variance. Risk-rated economic values were calculated for pregnancy rate, litter loss, litter size, pelt size, pelt quality, pelt colour clarity, feed efficiency and eye infection. With high absolute risk aversion, economic values were lower than with low absolute risk aversion. Economic values were highest for litter loss (18.16 and 26.42 EUR), litter size (13.27 and 19.40 EUR), pregnancy (11.99 and 18.39 EUR) and eye infection (12.39 and 13.81 EUR). Sensitivity analysis showed that selection pressure for improved eye health depended strongly on proportion of culled animals among infected animals and much less on the proportion of infected animals. The economic value of feed efficiency was lower than expected (6.06 and 8.03 EUR). However, it was almost the same magnitude as pelt quality (7.30 and 7.30 EUR) and higher than the economic value of pelt size (3.37 and 5.26 EUR). Risk factors should be considered in blue fox breeding scheme because they change the relative importance of traits. © 2016 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Comments received on excess deaths from restricting Medicaid funds for abortions.

PubMed

Wallenstein, S

1978-03-01

Methodological errors inherent in an article by D.B. Petitti and W. Cates (American Journal of Public Health 67:860-862, 1977) on projecting excess maternal mortality resulting from restriction of Medicaid funds for abortion are cited. It is claimed that the authors' mortality estimates are too high because they failed to correct for other early-pregnancy-related mortality risks occurring prior to a planned abortion. To calculate excess risk, the risk for Medicaid patients who abort must be subtracted from non-pregnancy-related maternal mortality rates. Analysis of gestation-age-specific nonabortion maternal mortality can be used to indicate excess maternal mortality for Medicaid recipients choosing abortion, as well as the increased number of deaths due to the postponement of abortion.

Properties of Blazar Jets Defined by an Economy of Power

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petropoulou, Maria; Dermer, Charles D.

2016-07-01

The absolute power of a relativistic black hole jet includes the power in the magnetic field, the leptons, the hadrons, and the radiated photons. A power analysis of a relativistic radio/γ-ray blazar jet leads to bifurcated leptonic synchrotron-Compton (LSC) and leptohadronic synchrotron (LHS) solutions that minimize the total jet power. Higher Doppler factors with increasing peak synchrotron frequency are implied in the LSC model. Strong magnetic fields {B}\\prime ≳ 100 {{G}} are found for the LHS model with variability times ≲ {10}3 {{s}}, in accord with highly magnetized, reconnection-driven jet models. Proton synchrotron models of ≳ 100 {GeV} blazar radiation can have sub-Eddington absolute jet powers, but models of dominant GeV radiation in flat spectrum radio quasars require excessive power.

Excessive Alcohol Use and Risks to Men's Health

MedlinePlus

... 08% or greater). 10 Excessive alcohol consumption increases aggression and, as a result, can increase the risk of physically assaulting another person. 11 Men are more likely than women to commit suicide, and more likely to have ...

Cancer risk to First Nations’ people from exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons near in-situ bitumen extraction in Cold Lake, Alberta

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The Alberta oil sands are an important economic resource in Canada, but there is growing concern over the environmental and health effects as a result of contaminant releases and exposures. Recent studies have shown a temporal and spatial trend of increased polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) concentrations in sediments and snowpack near the Athabasca oil sands operations (i.e., open pit mines), but thus far similar studies have not been done for the Cold Lake region where steam assisted gravity drainage (in situ) extraction is performed. Methods Many PAHs are known mutagenic carcinogens, and this study measured soil and atmospheric concentrations of PAHs in the Cold Lake region to assess the excess lifetime cancer risk posed to the First Nations’ inhabitants of the region. Using both deterministic and probabilistic risk assessment methods, excess lifetime cancer risks were calculated for exposures from inhalation or inadvertent soil ingestion. Results The mean excess cancer risk for First Nations’ people through ingestion who engage in traditional wilderness activities in the Cold Lake region was 0.02 new cases per 100,000 with an upper 95% risk level of 0.07 cases per 100,000. Exposure to PAHs via inhalation revealed a maximum excess lifetime cancer risk of less than 0.1 cases per 100,000. Conclusions Excess lifetime risk values below 1 case per 100,000 is generally considered negligible, thus our analyses did not demonstrate any significant increases in cancer risks associated with PAH exposures for First Nations people inhabiting the Cold Lake region. PMID:24520827

Which interventions offer best value for money in primary prevention of cardiovascular disease?

PubMed

Cobiac, Linda J; Magnus, Anne; Lim, Stephen; Barendregt, Jan J; Carter, Rob; Vos, Theo

2012-01-01

Despite many decades of declining mortality rates in the Western world, cardiovascular disease remains the leading cause of death worldwide. In this research we evaluate the optimal mix of lifestyle, pharmaceutical and population-wide interventions for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease. In a discrete time Markov model we simulate the ischaemic heart disease and stroke outcomes and cost impacts of intervention over the lifetime of all Australian men and women, aged 35 to 84 years, who have never experienced a heart disease or stroke event. Best value for money is achieved by mandating moderate limits on salt in the manufacture of bread, margarine and cereal. A combination of diuretic, calcium channel blocker, ACE inhibitor and low-cost statin, for everyone with at least 5% five-year risk of cardiovascular disease, is also cost-effective, but lifestyle interventions aiming to change risky dietary and exercise behaviours are extremely poor value for money and have little population health benefit. There is huge potential for improving efficiency in cardiovascular disease prevention in Australia. A tougher approach from Government to mandating limits on salt in processed foods and reducing excessive statin prices, and a shift away from lifestyle counselling to more efficient absolute risk-based prescription of preventive drugs, could cut health care costs while improving population health.

End-stage kidney disease among indigenous peoples of Australia and New Zealand.

PubMed

McDonald, Stephen P

2013-05-01

Although possessing different anthropological origins, there are similarities in the epidemiology of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) among the indigenous peoples of Australia (the Australian Aborigines and Torres Strait Islanders) and New Zealand (Maori and Pacific Peoples). In both countries there is a substantially increased rate of ESKD among these groups. This is more marked in Australia than in New Zealand, but in both countries the relative rate (in comparison to non-indigenous rates) as well as absolute rate have nearly stabilized in recent years. The excess risk affects females particularly-in contrast to the non-indigenous picture. Among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in Australia, there is a strong age interaction, with the most marked risk being among those aged 25 to 45 years. Indigenous peoples are less likely to be treated with home dialysis, and much less likely to receive a kidney transplant. In particular, rates of living donation are very low among indigenous groups in both countries. Outcomes during dialysis treatment and during transplantation are inferior to those of nonindigenous ones, even after adjustment for the higher prevalence of comorbidities. The underlying causes for these differences are complex, but the slowing and possible stabilization of incident rate changes is heartening.

17 CFR 402.2a - Appendix A-Calculation of market risk haircut for purposes of § 402.2(g)(2).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... larger in absolute value of the two residual position interim haircuts being netted, and (ii) zero, in... category of the larger (in absolute value) of the two interim haircuts that were netted, and (2) a zero in... the larger (in absolute value) of the two interim haircuts that were netted, and (2) a zero in the...

17 CFR 402.2a - Appendix A-Calculation of market risk haircut for purposes of § 402.2(g)(2).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... larger in absolute value of the two residual position interim haircuts being netted, and (ii) zero, in... category of the larger (in absolute value) of the two interim haircuts that were netted, and (2) a zero in... the larger (in absolute value) of the two interim haircuts that were netted, and (2) a zero in the...

17 CFR 402.2a - Appendix A-Calculation of market risk haircut for purposes of § 402.2(g)(2).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... larger in absolute value of the two residual position interim haircuts being netted, and (ii) zero, in... category of the larger (in absolute value) of the two interim haircuts that were netted, and (2) a zero in... the larger (in absolute value) of the two interim haircuts that were netted, and (2) a zero in the...

17 CFR 402.2a - Appendix A-Calculation of market risk haircut for purposes of § 402.2(g)(2).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... larger in absolute value of the two residual position interim haircuts being netted, and (ii) zero, in... category of the larger (in absolute value) of the two interim haircuts that were netted, and (2) a zero in... the larger (in absolute value) of the two interim haircuts that were netted, and (2) a zero in the...

17 CFR 402.2a - Appendix A-Calculation of market risk haircut for purposes of § 402.2(g)(2).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... larger in absolute value of the two residual position interim haircuts being netted, and (ii) zero, in... category of the larger (in absolute value) of the two interim haircuts that were netted, and (2) a zero in... the larger (in absolute value) of the two interim haircuts that were netted, and (2) a zero in the...

Breast-feeding duration for the prevention of excess body weight of mother-child pairs concurrently: a 2-year cohort study.

PubMed

Mastroeni, Marco Fabio; Mastroeni, Silmara Salete de Barros Silva; Czarnobay, Sandra Ana; Ekwaru, John Paul; Loehr, Sarah A; Veugelers, Paul J

2017-10-01

To examine the association between breast-feeding duration and the risk of excess body weight (children >85th percentile, mothers BMI≥25·0 kg/m2) concurrently in mother-child pairs two years after delivery. Prospective cohort study in Joinville, Brazil. Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine the independent relationship between breast-feeding duration and risk of excess body weight. Brazilian public maternity hospital. Three hundred and five mother-child pairs. At 2-year follow-up, 23·6 % of mother-child pairs had excess body weight. Children breast-fed for <2 months were more likely to have excess body weight than children breast-fed for ≥6 months (OR=2·4; 95 % CI 1·1, 5·1). Breast-feeding for <2 months was also associated with a greater likelihood of maternal excess body weight compared with those who breast-fed for ≥6 months (OR=2·9; 95 % CI 1·1, 8·1). There was a progressive increase in the likelihood of mother-child pairs having excess body weight as breast-feeding duration decreased. In addition to breast-feeding duration, other independent determinants of excess body weight were pre-pregnancy weight, gestational weight gain and number of pregnancies in mothers, and birth weight in children. Breast-feeding for a longer duration has a parallel protective effect on the risk of excess body weight in mother-child pairs two years after birth. Since members of the same family could be influenced by the same risk factors, continued promotion and support of breast-feeding may help to attenuate the rising prevalence of overweight in mother-child pairs.

A new era for drinking? Epidemiological evidence on adolescent male-female differences in drinking incidence in the United States and Europe.

PubMed

Cheng, Hui G; Anthony, James C

2017-01-01

We seek answers to three questions about adolescent risk of starting to drink alcoholic beverages: (1) in new United States (US) data, can we reproduce a recently discovered female excess risk? (2) has a female excess risk emerged in European countries? and (3) might the size of country-level female-male differences (FMD) be influenced by macro-level gender equality and development processes? Estimates are from US and European surveys of adolescents, 2010-2014. For US estimates, newly incident drinking refers to consuming the first full drink during the 12-month interval just prior to assessment. For all countries, lifetime cumulative incidence of drinking refers to any drinking before assessment of the sampled 15-16 years. Cumulative meta-analysis summary estimates from the US show a highly reproducible female excess in newly incident drinking among 12-17 years (final estimated female-male difference in risk, FMD = 2.1%; 95% confidence interval = 1.5%, 2.7%). Several European countries show female excess risk, estimated as lifetime cumulative incidence of drinking onsets before age 17 years. At the country level, the observed magnitude of FMD in risk is positively associated with the Gender Development Index (especially facets related to education and life expectancy of females relative to males), and with residence in a higher income European country. New FMD estimates support reproducibility of a female excess risk in the US. In Europe, evidence of a female excess is modest. Educational attainment, life expectancies, and income merit attention in future FMD research on suspected macro-level processes that influence drinking onsets.

A new era for drinking? Epidemiological evidence on adolescent male-female differences in drinking incidence in the United States and Europe

PubMed Central

Cheng, Hui G.; Anthony, James C.

2016-01-01

Purpose We seek answers to three questions about adolescent risk of starting to drink alcoholic beverages: (1) In new United States (US) data, can we reproduce a recently discovered female excess risk? (2) Has a female excess risk emerged in European countries? and (3) Might the size of country-level female-male differences (FMD) be influenced by macro-level gender equality and development processes? Methods Estimates are from US and European surveys of adolescents, 2010–2014. For US estimates, newly incident drinking refers to consuming the first full drink during the 12-month interval just prior to assessment. For all countries, lifetime cumulative incidence of drinking refers to any drinking before assessment of the sampled 15-to-16-year-olds. Results Cumulative meta-analysis summary estimates from the US show a highly reproducible female excess in newly incident drinking among 12-to-17-year-olds (final estimated female-male difference in risk, FMD = 2.1%; 95% confidence interval = 1.5%, 2.7%). Several European countries show female excess risk, estimated as lifetime cumulative incidence of drinking onsets before age 17 years. At the country level, the observed magnitude of FMD in risk is positively associated with the Gender Development Index (especially facets related to education and life expectancy of females relative to males), and with residence in a higher income European country. Conclusions New FMD estimates support reproducibility of a female excess risk in the US. In Europe, evidence of a female excess is modest. Educational attainment, life expectancies, and income merit attention in future FMD research on suspected macro-level processes that influence drinking onsets. PMID:27915406

Predictors of excess birth weight in Brazil: a systematic review.

PubMed

Czarnobay, Sandra Ana; Kroll, Caroline; Schultz, Lidiane F; Malinovski, Juliana; Mastroeni, Silmara Salete de Barros Silva; Mastroeni, Marco Fabio

2018-05-19

To describe the main predictors for excess birth weight in Brazilian children. Systematic review carried out in the bibliographic databases: PubMed/MEDLINE, Cochrane, Scopus, Web of Science, and LILACS. The research in the gray literature was performed using the Google Scholar database. The bias risk analysis was adapted from the Downs and Black scale, used to evaluate the methodology of the included studies. Using the classifications of fetal macrosomia (>4000g or ≥4000g) and large for gestational age (above the 90th percentile), 64 risk factors for excess birth weight were found in 33 scientific articles in the five regions of the country. Of the 64 risk factors, 31 were significantly associated with excess birth weight, with excess gestational weight gain, pre-gestational body mass index ≥25kg/m 2 , and gestational diabetes mellitus being the most prevalent. The main predictors for excess birth weight in Brazil are modifiable risk factors. The implementation of adequate nutritional status in the gestational period and even after childbirth appears to be due to the quality and frequency of the follow-up of the mothers and their children by public health agencies. Copyright © 2018 Sociedade Brasileira de Pediatria. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Review of occupational epidemiology of chromium chemicals and respiratory cancer.

PubMed

Hayes, R B

1988-06-01

Several epidemiologic studies have investigated the association between cancer risk and employment in chromium producing and using industries. Strong and consistent associations have been found between employment in the primary chemical producing industry and the risk for respiratory cancer. Workers employed in chromate pigment production and possibly spray painters of chromate pigment paints appear to be at excess risk of respiratory cancer. Chrome platers may also be at excess risk, although the evidence is limited. A few studies indicate that chromium alloy welding may also be an exposure source of concern. Some studies of ferrochromium alloy workers have shown an excess risk for respiratory cancer, although the risk may in part be due to concomitant exposures. The evidence indicates that the hexavalent form of chromium is the primary agent of chromium carcinogenesis. Solubility and other characteristics of chromium compounds may also play a role in determining risk.

One idea of portfolio risk control for absolute return strategy risk adjustments by signals from correlation behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nishiyama, N.

2001-12-01

Absolute return strategy provided from fund of funds (FOFs) investment schemes is the focus in Japanese Financial Community. FOFs investment mainly consists of hedge fund investment and it has two major characteristics which are low correlation against benchmark index and little impact from various external changes in the environment given maximizing return. According to the historical track record of survival hedge funds in this business world, they maintain a stable high return and low risk. However, one must keep in mind that low risk would not be equal to risk free. The failure of Long-term capital management (LTCM) that took place in the summer of 1998 was a symbolized phenomenon. The summer of 1998 exhibited a certain limitation of traditional value at risk (VaR) and some possibility that traditional VaR could be ineffectual to the nonlinear type of fluctuation in the market. In this paper, I try to bring self-organized criticality (SOC) into portfolio risk control. SOC would be well known as a model of decay in the natural world. I analyzed nonlinear type of fluctuation in the market as SOC and applied SOC to capture complicated market movement using threshold point of SOC and risk adjustments by scenario correlation as implicit signals. Threshold becomes the control parameter of risk exposure to set downside floor and forecast extreme nonlinear type of fluctuation under a certain probability. Simulation results would show synergy effect of portfolio risk control between SOC and absolute return strategy.

Increment of absolute neutrophil count in the third trimester and increased risk of small-for-gestational-age birth: Hirakata Risk Associated with Pregnancy Assessment Research (HIRAPAR).

PubMed

Harita, Nobuko; Kariya, Masatoshi; Hayashi, Tomoshige; Sato, Kyoko Kogawa; Nakamura, Kimihiko; Endo, Ginji; Narimoto, Katsuhiko

2012-09-01

Small-for-gestational-age (SGA) infants, who have growth restriction, have higher perinatal morbidity and mortality. Excessive inflammatory reaction such as neutrophil activation has been observed in pregnant women whose offspring had restricted fetal growth, but the association between white blood cell (WBC) counts and SGA birth has not yet been assessed. We therefore examined the association of WBC count and its change with the risk of SGA birth. We enrolled 2356 pregnant women who had full-term singleton delivery at a private maternity hospital in Hirakata, Japan. SGA was defined as under the 10th percentile of birthweight for gestational age, baby sex, and mother's parity according to the Japanese neonatal anthropometric charts renewed in 2010. Blood samples were measured in the first and third trimesters. We performed multiple logistic regression analysis to assess associations between total and differential WBC counts and SGA birth. Women with SGA birth tended to have higher total WBC count in the third trimester compared with women who did not have SGA birth. This tendency was not observed for total WBC count in the first trimester. After adjustment for age, height, body mass index at entry, smoking habit, weekly gestational weight gain, and pregnancy-induced hypertension, higher total WBC count in the third trimester was associated with an increased risk of SGA birth. Total WBC count in the first trimester did not show any significant association with SGA birth. The ratio of total WBC count in the third trimester to that in the first trimester was associated with SGA birth; the odds ratio for 1 unit increase was 3.02 (95% CI: 1.54-5.92). Regarding differential WBC counts in the third trimester, neutrophil count but not lymphocyte count was associated positively with SGA birth. Higher total WBC and absolute neutrophil counts in the third trimester were associated with SGA birth. In addition, greater ratio of increase in total WBC counts during pregnancy showed a positive association with the incidence of SGA birth. These associations may reflect a vicious cycle of inflammation and placental dysfunction as a cause of fetal growth restriction. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Kidney stones and kidney function loss: a cohort study.

PubMed

Alexander, R Todd; Hemmelgarn, Brenda R; Wiebe, Natasha; Bello, Aminu; Morgan, Catherine; Samuel, Susan; Klarenbach, Scott W; Curhan, Gary C; Tonelli, Marcello

2012-08-29

To investigate whether the presence of kidney stones increase the risk of end stage renal disease (ESRD) or other adverse renal outcomes. A registry cohort study using validated algorithms based on claims and facility utilisation data. Median follow-up of 11 years. Alberta, Canada, between 1997 and 2009. 3,089,194 adult patients without ESRD at baseline or a history of pyelonephritis. Of these, 1,954,836 had outpatient serum creatinine measurements and were included in analyses of chronic kidney disease and doubling of serum creatinine level. One or more kidney stones during follow-up. Incident ESRD, development of stage 3b-5 chronic kidney disease (estimated glomerular filtration rate <45 mL/min/1.73 m(2)), and sustained doubling of serum creatinine concentration from baseline. 23,706 (0.8%) patients had at least one kidney stone, 5333 (0.2%) developed ESRD, 68,525 (4%) developed stage 3b-5 chronic kidney disease, and 6581 (0.3%) experienced sustained doubling of serum creatinine. Overall, one or more stone episodes during follow-up was associated with increased risk of ESRD (adjusted hazard ratio 2.16 (95% CI 1.79 to 2.62)), new stage 3b-5 chronic kidney disease (hazard ratio 1.74 (1.61 to 1.88)), and doubling of serum creatinine (hazard ratio 1.94 (1.56 to 2.43)), all compared with those without kidney stones during follow-up. The excess risk of adverse outcomes associated with at least one episode of stones seemed greater in women than in men, and in people aged <50 years than in those aged ≥ 50. However, the risks of all three adverse outcomes in those with at least one episode of stones were significantly higher than in those without stones in both sexes and age strata. The absolute increase in the rate of adverse renal outcomes associated with stones was small: the unadjusted rate of ESRD was 2.48 per million person days in people with one or more episodes of stones versus 0.52 per million person days in people without stones. Even a single kidney stone episode during follow-up was associated with a significant increase in the likelihood of adverse renal outcomes including ESRD. However, the increases were small in absolute terms.

A case-control study to assess the impact of mammographic density on breast cancer risk in women aged 40-49 at intermediate familial risk.

PubMed

Assi, Valentina; Massat, Nathalie J; Thomas, Susan; MacKay, James; Warwick, Jane; Kataoka, Masako; Warsi, Iqbal; Brentnall, Adam; Warren, Ruth; Duffy, Stephen W

2015-05-15

Mammographic density is a strong risk factor for breast cancer, but its potential application in risk management is not clear, partly due to uncertainties about its interaction with other breast cancer risk factors. We aimed to quantify the impact of mammographic density on breast cancer risk in women aged 40-49 at intermediate familial risk of breast cancer (average lifetime risk of 23%), in particular in premenopausal women, and to investigate its relationship with other breast cancer risk factors in this population. We present the results from a case-control study nested with the FH01 cohort study of 6,710 women mostly aged 40-49 at intermediate familial risk of breast cancer. One hundred and three cases of breast cancer were age-matched to one or two controls. Density was measured by semiautomated interactive thresholding. Absolute density, but not percent density, was a significant risk factor for breast cancer in this population after adjusting for area of nondense tissue (OR per 10 cm(2) = 1.07, 95% CI 1.00-1.15, p = 0.04). The effect was stronger in premenopausal women, who made up the majority of the study population. Absolute density remained a significant predictor of breast cancer risk after adjusting for age at menarche, age at first live birth, parity, past or present hormone replacement therapy, and the Tyrer-Cuzick 10-year relative risk estimate of breast cancer. Absolute density can improve breast cancer risk stratification and delineation of high-risk groups alongside the Tyrer-Cuzick 10-year relative risk estimate. © 2014 UICC.

Lung Cancer Mortality (1950–1999) among Eldorado Uranium Workers: A Comparison of Models of Carcinogenesis and Empirical Excess Risk Models

PubMed Central

Eidemüller, Markus; Jacob, Peter; Lane, Rachel S. D.; Frost, Stanley E.; Zablotska, Lydia B.

2012-01-01

Lung cancer mortality after exposure to radon decay products (RDP) among 16,236 male Eldorado uranium workers was analyzed. Male workers from the Beaverlodge and Port Radium uranium mines and the Port Hope radium and uranium refinery and processing facility who were first employed between 1932 and 1980 were followed up from 1950 to 1999. A total of 618 lung cancer deaths were observed. The analysis compared the results of the biologically-based two-stage clonal expansion (TSCE) model to the empirical excess risk model. The spontaneous clonal expansion rate of pre-malignant cells was reduced at older ages under the assumptions of the TSCE model. Exposure to RDP was associated with increase in the clonal expansion rate during exposure but not afterwards. The increase was stronger for lower exposure rates. A radiation-induced bystander effect could be a possible explanation for such an exposure response. Results on excess risks were compared to a linear dose-response parametric excess risk model with attained age, time since exposure and dose rate as effect modifiers. In all models the excess relative risk decreased with increasing attained age, increasing time since exposure and increasing exposure rate. Large model uncertainties were found in particular for small exposure rates. PMID:22936975

Evaluation of the risk of noise-induced hearing loss among unscreened male industrial workers.

PubMed

Prince, Mary M; Gilbert, Stephen J; Smith, Randall J; Stayner, Leslie T

2003-02-01

Variability in background risk and distribution of various risk factors for hearing loss may explain some of the diversity in excess risk of noise-induced hearing loss (NIHL). This paper examines the impact of various risk factors on excess risk estimates of NIHL using data from the 1968-1972 NIOSH Occupational Noise and Hearing Survey (ONHS). Previous analyses of a subset of these data focused on 1172 highly "screened" workers. In the current analysis, an additional 894 white males (609 noise-exposed and 285 controls), who were excluded for various reasons (i.e., nonoccupational noise exposure, otologic or medical conditions affecting hearing, prior occupational noise exposure) have been added 2066) to assess excess risk of noise-induced material impairment in an unscreened population. Data are analyzed by age, duration of exposure, and sound level (8-h TWA) for four different definitions of noise-induced hearing impairment, defined as the binaural pure-tone average (PTA) hearing threshold level greater than 25 dB for the following frequencies: (a) 1-4 kHz (PTA1234), (b) 1-3 kHz (PTA123), (c) 0.5, 1, and 2 kHz (PTA512), and (d) 3, 4, and 6 kHz (PTA346). Results indicate that populations with higher background risks of hearing loss may show lower excess risks attributable to noise relative to highly screened populations. Estimates of lifetime excess risk of hearing impairment were found to be significantly different between screened and unscreened population for noise levels greater than 90 dBA. Predicted age-related risk of material hearing impairment in the ONHS unscreened population was similar to that predicted from Annex B and C of ANSI S3.44 for ages less than 60 years. Results underscore the importance of understanding differential risk patterns for hearing loss and the use of appropriate reference (control) populations when evaluating risk of noise-induced hearing impairment among contemporary industrial populations.

Colon Cancer Risk Assessment - Gauss Program

Cancer.gov

An executable file (in GAUSS) that projects absolute colon cancer risk (with confidence intervals) according to NCI’s Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (CCRAT) algorithm. GAUSS is not needed to run the program.

Risk of abnormal triple screen for Down syndrome is significantly higher in patients with female fetuses.

PubMed

Spong, C Y; Ghidini, A; Stanley-Christian, H; Meck, J M; Seydel, F D; Pezzullo, J C

1999-04-01

Previous studies have shown that mid-trimester maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels are significantly higher and human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) levels significantly lower in women with male compared with female fetuses. We have evaluated whether triple-screen criteria are more likely to identify women with female fetuses as at risk for Down syndrome. From the Georgetown University genetics database we obtained the absolute values and corresponding multiples of the median (MoM) for AFP, hCG and unconjugated oestriol (uE3) in singleton gestations for the period database November 1992 July 1996. A Down syndrome risk of 1/270 or greater at mid-trimester was considered as high risk. A total of 977 patients with triple screen and outcome information were identified, including 502 female and 475 male fetuses. Patients with female fetuses were significantly more likely to have lower serum AFP (p=0.003) and a positive triple screen for Down syndrome (72 (14 per cent) versus 45 (9 per cent), p<0.02) than those with male fetuses. The gestational age at triple screen, maternal serum hCG and uE3, race and diabetes were not significantly different between the two groups. Since Down syndrome is less common in female than male fetuses, and the rates of female and male Down syndrome fetuses detected by triple screen and subsequent amniocentesis are not significantly different, the excess of positive mid-trimester maternal serum triple screen in women with female fetuses is likely due to false-positive results.

Estimate of the risk of radiation-induced cancers after linear-accelerator-based breast-cancer radiotherapy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koh, Eui Kwan; Seo, Jungju; Baek, Tae Seong; Chung, Eun Ji; Yoon, Myonggeun; Lee, Hyun-ho

2013-07-01

The aim of this study is to assess and compare the excess absolute risks (EARs) of radiation-induced cancers following conformal (3D-CRT), fixed-field intensity-modulated (IMRT) and volumetric modulated arc (RapidArc) radiation therapy in patients with breast cancer. 3D-CRT, IMRT and RapidArc were planned for 10 breast cancer patients. The organ-specific EAR for cancer induction was estimated using the organ equivalent dose (OED) based on computed dose volume histograms (DVHs) and the secondary doses measured at various points from the field edge. The average secondary dose per Gy treatment dose from 3D-CRT, measured 10 to 50 cm from the field edge, ranged from 8.27 to 1.04 mGy. The secondary doses per Gy from IMRT and RapidArc, however, ranged between 5.86 and 0.54 mGy, indicating that IMRT and RapidArc are associated with smaller doses of secondary radiation than 3D-CRT. The organ specific EARs for out-of-field organs, such as the thyroid, liver and colon, were higher with 3D-CRT than with IMRT or RapidArc. In contrast, EARs for in-field organs were much lower with 3D-CRT than with IMRT or RapidArc. The overall estimate of EAR indicated that the radiation-induced cancer risk was 1.8-2.0 times lower with 3D-CRT than with IMRT or RapidArc. Comparisons of EARs during breast irradiation suggested that the predicted risk of secondary cancers was lower with 3D-CRT than with IMRT or RapidArc.

Comparison of Mammographic Density Assessed as Volumes and Areas among Women Undergoing Diagnostic Image-Guided Breast Biopsy

PubMed Central

Gierach, Gretchen L.; Geller, Berta M.; Shepherd, John A.; Patel, Deesha A.; Vacek, Pamela M.; Weaver, Donald L.; Chicoine, Rachael E.; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.; Fan, Bo; Mahmoudzadeh, Amir Pasha; Wang, Jeff; Johnson, Jason M.; Herschorn, Sally D.; Brinton, Louise A.; Sherman, Mark E.

2014-01-01

Background Mammographic density (MD), the area of non-fatty appearing tissue divided by total breast area, is a strong breast cancer risk factor. Most MD analyses have employed visual categorizations or computer-assisted quantification, which ignore breast thickness. We explored MD volume and area, using a volumetric approach previously validated as predictive of breast cancer risk, in relation to risk factors among women undergoing breast biopsy. Methods Among 413 primarily white women, ages 40–65, undergoing diagnostic breast biopsies between 2007–2010 at an academic facility in Vermont, MD volume (cm3) was quantified in cranio-caudal views of the breast contralateral to the biopsy target using a density phantom, while MD area (cm2) was measured on the same digital mammograms using thresholding software. Risk factor associations with continuous MD measurements were evaluated using linear regression. Results Percent MD volume and area were correlated (r=0.81) and strongly and inversely associated with age, body mass index (BMI), and menopause. Both measures were inversely associated with smoking and positively associated with breast biopsy history. Absolute MD measures were correlated (r=0.46) and inversely related to age and menopause. Whereas absolute dense area was inversely associated with BMI, absolute dense volume was positively associated. Conclusions Volume and area MD measures exhibit some overlap in risk factor associations, but divergence as well, particularly for BMI. Impact Findings suggest that volume and area density measures differ in subsets of women; notably, among obese women, absolute density was higher with volumetric methods, suggesting that breast cancer risk assessments may vary for these techniques. PMID:25139935

Optimized volumetric modulated arc therapy versus 3D-CRT for early stage mediastinal Hodgkin lymphoma without axillary involvement: a comparison of second cancers and heart disease risk.

PubMed

Filippi, Andrea Riccardo; Ragona, Riccardo; Piva, Cristina; Scafa, Davide; Fiandra, Christian; Fusella, Marco; Giglioli, Francesca Romana; Lohr, Frank; Ricardi, Umberto

2015-05-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the risks of second cancers and cardiovascular diseases associated with an optimized volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT) planning solution in a selected cohort of stage I/II Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) patients treated with either involved-node or involved-site radiation therapy in comparison with 3-dimensional conformal radiation therapy (3D-CRT). Thirty-eight patients (13 males and 25 females) were included. Disease extent was mediastinum alone (n=8, 21.1%); mediastinum plus unilateral neck (n=19, 50%); mediastinum plus bilateral neck (n=11, 29.9%). Prescription dose was 30 Gy in 2-Gy fractions. Only 5 patients had mediastinal bulky disease at diagnosis (13.1%). Anteroposterior 3D-CRT was compared with a multiarc optimized VMAT solution. Lung, breast, and thyroid cancer risks were estimated by calculating a lifetime attributable risk (LAR), with a LAR ratio (LAR(VMAT)-to-LAR(3D-CRT)) as a comparative measure. Cardiac toxicity risks were estimated by calculating absolute excess risk (AER). The LAR ratio favored 3D-CRT for lung cancer induction risk in mediastinal alone (P=.004) and mediastinal plus unilateral neck (P=.02) presentations. LAR ratio for breast cancer was lower for VMAT in mediastinal plus bilateral neck presentations (P=.02), without differences for other sites. For thyroid cancer, no significant differences were observed, regardless of anatomical presentation. A significantly lower AER of cardiac (P=.038) and valvular diseases (P<.0001) was observed for VMAT regardless of disease extent. In a cohort of patients with favorable characteristics in terms of disease extent at diagnosis (large prevalence of nonbulky presentations without axillary involvement), optimized VMAT reduced heart disease risk with comparable risks of thyroid and breast cancer, with an increase in lung cancer induction probability. The results are however strongly influenced by the different anatomical presentations, supporting an individualized approach. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mortality attributable to excess adiposity in England and Wales in 2003 and 2015: explorations with a spreadsheet implementation of the Comparative Risk Assessment methodology

PubMed Central

Kelly, Christopher; Pashayan, Nora; Munisamy, Sreetharan; Powles, John W

2009-01-01

Background Our aim was to estimate the burden of fatal disease attributable to excess adiposity in England and Wales in 2003 and 2015 and to explore the sensitivity of the estimates to the assumptions and methods used. Methods A spreadsheet implementation of the World Health Organization's (WHO) Comparative Risk Assessment (CRA) methodology for continuously distributed exposures was used. For our base case, adiposity-related risks were assumed to be minimal with a mean (SD) BMI of 21 (1) Kg m-2. All cause mortality risks for 2015 were taken from the Government Actuary and alternative compositions by cause derived. Disease-specific relative risks by BMI were taken from the CRA project and varied in sensitivity analyses. Results Under base case methods and assumptions for 2003, approximately 41,000 deaths and a loss of 1.05 years of life expectancy were attributed to excess adiposity. Seventy-seven percent of all diabetic deaths, 23% of all ischaemic heart disease deaths and 14% of all cerebrovascular disease deaths were attributed to excess adiposity. Predictions for 2015 were found to be more sensitive to assumptions about the future course of mortality risks for diabetes than to variation in the assumed trend in BMI. On less favourable assumptions the attributable loss of life expectancy in 2015 would rise modestly to 1.28 years. Conclusion Excess adiposity appears to contribute materially but modestly to mortality risks in England and Wales and this contribution is likely to increase in the future. Uncertainty centres on future trends of associated diseases, especially diabetes. The robustness of these estimates is limited by the lack of control for correlated risks by stratification and by the empirical uncertainty surrounding the effects of prolonged excess adiposity beginning in adolescence. PMID:19566928

Projecting Individualized Absolute Invasive Breast Cancer Risk in US Hispanic Women.

PubMed

Banegas, Matthew P; John, Esther M; Slattery, Martha L; Gomez, Scarlett Lin; Yu, Mandi; LaCroix, Andrea Z; Pee, David; Chlebowski, Rowan T; Hines, Lisa M; Thompson, Cynthia A; Gail, Mitchell H

2017-02-01

There is no model to estimate absolute invasive breast cancer risk for Hispanic women. The San Francisco Bay Area Breast Cancer Study (SFBCS) provided data on Hispanic breast cancer case patients (533 US-born, 553 foreign-born) and control participants (464 US-born, 947 foreign-born). These data yielded estimates of relative risk (RR) and attributable risk (AR) separately for US-born and foreign-born women. Nativity-specific absolute risks were estimated by combining RR and AR information with nativity-specific invasive breast cancer incidence and competing mortality rates from the California Cancer Registry and Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program to develop the Hispanic risk model (HRM). In independent data, we assessed model calibration through observed/expected (O/E) ratios, and we estimated discriminatory accuracy with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) statistic. The US-born HRM included age at first full-term pregnancy, biopsy for benign breast disease, and family history of breast cancer; the foreign-born HRM also included age at menarche. The HRM estimated lower risks than the National Cancer Institute's Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (BCRAT) for US-born Hispanic women, but higher risks in foreign-born women. In independent data from the Women's Health Initiative, the HRM was well calibrated for US-born women (observed/expected [O/E] ratio = 1.07, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.81 to 1.40), but seemed to overestimate risk in foreign-born women (O/E ratio = 0.66, 95% CI = 0.41 to 1.07). The AUC was 0.564 (95% CI = 0.485 to 0.644) for US-born and 0.625 (95% CI = 0.487 to 0.764) for foreign-born women. The HRM is the first absolute risk model that is based entirely on data specific to Hispanic women by nativity. Further studies in Hispanic women are warranted to evaluate its validity. Published by Oxford University Press 2016. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the US.

What is worse? A hierarchy of family-related risk factors predicting alcohol use in adolescence.

PubMed

Kuntsche, Emmanuel N; Kuendig, Hervé

2006-01-01

The aim of the present study was to determine if family structure, perception of excessive drinking in the family, and family bonding hold a graduated importance in predicting adolescent alcohol use and their association with peers who drink excessively. Three nested linear structural models were calculated separately for frequent and excessive drinking, based on a sample of 3,127 eighth and ninth graders in Switzerland (mean age 15.3, SD 0.8) surveyed in spring 2002 in the context of the "Health Behavior in School-Aged Children (HBSC)" study. The results confirm that the perception of excessive drinking in the family is more closely related to both frequent and excessive drinking than family structure, and family bonding is more closely related than drinking perception. Adjusting for both socio-demographic variables and the association with peers who drink excessively only slightly changed the results. To predict an association with the latter, family structure was more important than the perception of drinking, but family bonding remained the predominant predictor. The results stress the graduated importance of family-related risk factors: by listening to their children's worries, by spending their free time with them, and by providing help when needed, parents might have the possibility to actively minimize the risk of frequent and excessive drinking regardless of whether they are frequent excessive drinkers or live without a partner.

Prevalence Incidence Mixture Models

Cancer.gov

The R package and webtool fits Prevalence Incidence Mixture models to left-censored and irregularly interval-censored time to event data that is commonly found in screening cohorts assembled from electronic health records. Absolute and relative risk can be estimated for simple random sampling, and stratified sampling (the two approaches of superpopulation and a finite population are supported for target populations). Non-parametric (absolute risks only), semi-parametric, weakly-parametric (using B-splines), and some fully parametric (such as the logistic-Weibull) models are supported.

[Driving and the elderly: aspects of aging and handicap].

PubMed

Clément, R; Ferreol, S; Ould-Aoudia, V; Berger, M; Rodat, O

2005-10-08

Impairment of cognitive performance is associated with an excess risk of accidents. Adaptation of driving behavior in subjects with benign cognitive disorders reduces risk of automobile accidents. Cessation of driving or at least not driving alone limits the excess accident risk for drivers with dementia. Alterations in visual field and acuity increase risk of traffic accidents. Drugs affecting vigilance and neurological, cardiovascular and osteoarticular disorders increase accident risk. Screening for these disorders in the elderly is a necessary public safety measure.

Effects of antipsychotics, antidepressants and mood stabilizers on risk for physical diseases in people with schizophrenia, depression and bipolar disorder

PubMed Central

Correll, Christoph U; Detraux, Johan; De Lepeleire, Jan; De Hert, Marc

2015-01-01

People with severe mental illness have a considerably shorter lifespan than the general population. This excess mortality is mainly due to physical illness. Next to mental illness-related factors, unhealthy lifestyle, and disparities in health care access and utilization, psychotropic medications can contribute to the risk of physical morbidity and mortality. We systematically reviewed the effects of antipsychotics, antidepressants and mood stabilizers on physical health outcomes in people with schizophrenia, depression and bipolar disorder. Updating and expanding our prior systematic review published in this journal, we searched MEDLINE (November 2009 - November 2014), combining the MeSH terms of major physical disease categories (and/or relevant diseases within these categories) with schizophrenia, major depressive disorder and bipolar disorder, and the three major psychotropic classes which received regulatory approval for these disorders, i.e., antipsychotics, antidepressants and mood stabilizers. We gave precedence to results from (systematic) reviews and meta-analyses wherever possible. Antipsychotics, and to a more restricted degree antidepressants and mood stabilizers, are associated with an increased risk for several physical diseases, including obesity, dyslipidemia, diabetes mellitus, thyroid disorders, hyponatremia; cardiovascular, respiratory tract, gastrointestinal, haematological, musculoskeletal and renal diseases, as well as movement and seizure disorders. Higher dosages, polypharmacy, and treatment of vulnerable (e.g., old or young) individuals are associated with greater absolute (elderly) and relative (youth) risk for most of these physical diseases. To what degree medication-specific and patient-specific risk factors interact, and how adverse outcomes can be minimized, allowing patients to derive maximum benefits from these medications, requires adequate clinical attention and further research. PMID:26043321

Coronary calcium predicts events better with absolute calcium scores than age-sex-race/ethnicity percentiles: MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis).

PubMed

Budoff, Matthew J; Nasir, Khurram; McClelland, Robyn L; Detrano, Robert; Wong, Nathan; Blumenthal, Roger S; Kondos, George; Kronmal, Richard A

2009-01-27

In this study, we aimed to establish whether age-sex-specific percentiles of coronary artery calcium (CAC) predict cardiovascular outcomes better than the actual (absolute) CAC score. The presence and extent of CAC correlates with the overall magnitude of coronary atherosclerotic plaque burden and with the development of subsequent coronary events. MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) is a prospective cohort study of 6,814 asymptomatic participants followed for coronary heart disease (CHD) events including myocardial infarction, angina, resuscitated cardiac arrest, or CHD death. Time to incident CHD was modeled with Cox regression, and we compared models with percentiles based on age, sex, and/or race/ethnicity to categories commonly used (0, 1 to 100, 101 to 400, 400+ Agatston units). There were 163 (2.4%) incident CHD events (median follow-up 3.75 years). Expressing CAC in terms of age- and sex-specific percentiles had significantly lower area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) than when using absolute scores (women: AUC 0.73 versus 0.76, p = 0.044; men: AUC 0.73 versus 0.77, p < 0.001). Akaike's information criterion indicated better model fit with the overall score. Both methods robustly predicted events (>90th percentile associated with a hazard ratio [HR] of 16.4, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 9.30 to 28.9, and score >400 associated with HR of 20.6, 95% CI: 11.8 to 36.0). Within groups based on age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-specific percentiles there remains a clear trend of increasing risk across levels of the absolute CAC groups. In contrast, once absolute CAC category is fixed, there is no increasing trend across levels of age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-specific categories. Patients with low absolute scores are low-risk, regardless of age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-specific percentile rank. Persons with an absolute CAC score of >400 are high risk, regardless of percentile rank. Using absolute CAC in standard groups performed better than age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-specific percentiles in terms of model fit and discrimination. We recommend using cut points based on the absolute CAC amount, and the common CAC cut points of 100 and 400 seem to perform well.

Cancer risk in 680,000 people exposed to computed tomography scans in childhood or adolescence: data linkage study of 11 million Australians.

PubMed

Mathews, John D; Forsythe, Anna V; Brady, Zoe; Butler, Martin W; Goergen, Stacy K; Byrnes, Graham B; Giles, Graham G; Wallace, Anthony B; Anderson, Philip R; Guiver, Tenniel A; McGale, Paul; Cain, Timothy M; Dowty, James G; Bickerstaffe, Adrian C; Darby, Sarah C

2013-05-21

To assess the cancer risk in children and adolescents following exposure to low dose ionising radiation from diagnostic computed tomography (CT) scans. Population based, cohort, data linkage study in Australia. COHORT MEMBERS: 10.9 million people identified from Australian Medicare records, aged 0-19 years on 1 January 1985 or born between 1 January 1985 and 31 December 2005; all exposures to CT scans funded by Medicare during 1985-2005 were identified for this cohort. Cancers diagnosed in cohort members up to 31 December 2007 were obtained through linkage to national cancer records. Cancer incidence rates in individuals exposed to a CT scan more than one year before any cancer diagnosis, compared with cancer incidence rates in unexposed individuals. 60,674 cancers were recorded, including 3150 in 680,211 people exposed to a CT scan at least one year before any cancer diagnosis. The mean duration of follow-up after exposure was 9.5 years. Overall cancer incidence was 24% greater for exposed than for unexposed people, after accounting for age, sex, and year of birth (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.24 (95% confidence interval 1.20 to 1.29); P<0.001). We saw a dose-response relation, and the IRR increased by 0.16 (0.13 to 0.19) for each additional CT scan. The IRR was greater after exposure at younger ages (P<0.001 for trend). At 1-4, 5-9, 10-14, and 15 or more years since first exposure, IRRs were 1.35 (1.25 to 1.45), 1.25 (1.17 to 1.34), 1.14 (1.06 to 1.22), and 1.24 (1.14 to 1.34), respectively. The IRR increased significantly for many types of solid cancer (digestive organs, melanoma, soft tissue, female genital, urinary tract, brain, and thyroid); leukaemia, myelodysplasia, and some other lymphoid cancers. There was an excess of 608 cancers in people exposed to CT scans (147 brain, 356 other solid, 48 leukaemia or myelodysplasia, and 57 other lymphoid). The absolute excess incidence rate for all cancers combined was 9.38 per 100,000 person years at risk, as of 31 December 2007. The average effective radiation dose per scan was estimated as 4.5 mSv. The increased incidence of cancer after CT scan exposure in this cohort was mostly due to irradiation. Because the cancer excess was still continuing at the end of follow-up, the eventual lifetime risk from CT scans cannot yet be determined. Radiation doses from contemporary CT scans are likely to be lower than those in 1985-2005, but some increase in cancer risk is still likely from current scans. Future CT scans should be limited to situations where there is a definite clinical indication, with every scan optimised to provide a diagnostic CT image at the lowest possible radiation dose.

Excessive Premature Atrial Complexes and the Risk of Recurrent Stroke or Death in an Ischemic Stroke Population.

PubMed

Vinther, Kristina H; Tveskov, Claus; Möller, Sören; Auscher, Soren; Osmanagic, Armin; Egstrup, Kenneth

2017-06-01

Our aim was to investigate the association of premature atrial complexes and the risk of recurrent stroke or death in patients with ischemic stroke in sinus rhythm. In a prospective cohort study, we used 24-hour Holter recordings to evaluate premature atrial complexes in patients consecutively admitted with ischemic strokes. Excessive premature atrial complexes were defined as >14 premature atrial complexes per hour and 3 or more runs of premature atrial complexes per 24 hours. During follow-up, 48-hour Holter recordings were performed after 6 and 12 months. Among patients in sinus rhythm, the association of excessive premature atrial complexes and the primary end point of recurrent stroke or death were estimated in both crude and adjusted Cox proportional hazards models. We further evaluated excessive premature atrial complexes contra atrial fibrillation in relation to the primary end point. Of the 256 patients included, 89 had atrial fibrillation. Of the patients in sinus rhythm (n = 167), 31 had excessive premature atrial complexes. During a median follow-up of 32 months, 50 patients (30% of patients in sinus rhythm) had recurrent strokes (n = 20) or died (n = 30). In both crude and adjusted models, excessive premature atrial complexes were associated with the primary end point, but not with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation. Compared with patients in atrial fibrillation, those with excessive premature atrial complexes had similarly high risks of the primary end point. In patients with ischemic stroke and sinus rhythm, excessive premature atrial complexes were associated with a higher risk of recurrent stroke or death. Copyright © 2017 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Secular Changes in Postfracture Outcomes Over 2 Decades in Australia: A Time-Trend Comparison of Excess Postfracture Mortality in Two Birth Controls Over Two Decades.

PubMed

Bliuc, Dana; Tran, Thach; Alarkawi, Dunia; Nguyen, Tuan V; Eisman, John A; Center, Jacqueline R

2016-06-01

Hip fracture incidence has been declining and life expectancy improving. However, trends of postfracture outcomes are unknown. The objective of the study was to compare the refracture risk and excess mortality after osteoporotic fracture between two birth cohorts, over 2 decades. Prospective birth cohorts were followed up over 2 decades (1989-2004 and 2000-2014). The study was conducted in community-dwelling participants in Dubbo, Australia. Women and men aged 60-80 years, participating in Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study 1 (DOES 1; born before 1930) and Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study 2 (DOES 2; born after 1930) participated in the study. Age-standardized fracture and mortality over two time intervals: (1989-2004 [DOES 1] and 2000-2014 [DOES 2]) were measured. The DOES 2 cohort had higher body mass index and bone mineral density and lower initial fracture rate than DOES 1, but similar refracture rates [age-standardized refracture rates per 1000 person-years: women: 53 (95% confidence interval [CI] 42-63) and 51 (95% CI 41-60) and men: 53 (95% CI 38-69) and 55 (95% CI 40-71) for DOES 2 and DOES 1, respectively). Absolute postfracture mortality rates declined in DOES 2 compared with DOES 1, mirroring the improvement in general-population life expectancy. However, when compared with period-specific general-population mortality, there was a similar 2.1- to 2.6-fold increased mortality risk after a fracture in both cohorts (age-adjusted standardized mortality ratio, women: 2.05 [95% CI 1.43-2.83] and 2.43 [95% CI 1.95-2.99] and men: 2.56 [95% CI 1.78-3.58] and 2.48 [95% CI 1.87-3.22] for DOES 2 and DOES 1, respectively). Over the 2 decades, despite the decline in the prevalence of fracture risk factors, general-population mortality, and initial fracture incidence, there was no improvement in postfracture outcomes. Refracture rates were similar and fracture-associated mortality was 2-fold higher than expected. These data indicate that the low postfracture treatment rates are still a major problem.

Patterns and determinants of functional and absolute iron deficiency in patients undergoing cardiac rehabilitation following heart surgery.

PubMed

Tramarin, Roberto; Pistuddi, Valeria; Maresca, Luigi; Pavesi, Marco; Castelvecchio, Serenella; Menicanti, Lorenzo; de Vincentiis, Carlo; Ranucci, Marco

2017-05-01

Background Anaemia and iron deficiency are frequent following major surgery. The present study aims to identify the iron deficiency patterns in cardiac surgery patients at their admission to a cardiac rehabilitation programme, and to determine which perioperative risk factor(s) may be associated with functional and absolute iron deficiency. Design This was a retrospective study on prospectively collected data. Methods The patient population included 339 patients. Functional iron deficiency was defined in the presence of transferrin saturation <20% and serum ferritin ≥100 µg/l. Absolute iron deficiency was defined in the presence of serum ferritin values <100 µg/l. Results Functional iron deficiency was found in 62.9% of patients and absolute iron deficiency in 10% of the patients. At a multivariable analysis, absolute iron deficiency was significantly ( p = 0.001) associated with mechanical prosthesis mitral valve replacement (odds ratio 5.4, 95% confidence interval 1.9-15) and tissue valve aortic valve replacement (odds ratio 4.5, 95% confidence interval 1.9-11). In mitral valve surgery, mitral repair carried a significant ( p = 0.013) lower risk of absolute iron deficiency (4.4%) than mitral valve replacement with tissue valves (8.3%) or mechanical prostheses (22.5%). Postoperative outcome did not differ between patients with functional iron deficiency and patients without iron deficiency; patients with absolute iron deficiency had a significantly ( p = 0.017) longer postoperative hospital stay (median 11 days) than patients without iron deficiency (median nine days) or with functional iron deficiency (median eight days). Conclusions Absolute iron deficiency following cardiac surgery is more frequent in heart valve surgery and is associated with a prolonged hospital stay. Routine screening for iron deficiency at admission in the cardiac rehabilitation unit is suggested.

Cancer risk from incidental ingestion exposures to PAHs associated with coal-tar-sealed pavement

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, E. Spencer; Mahler, Barbara J.; Van Metre, Peter C.

2012-01-01

Recent (2009-10) studies documented significantly higher concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in settled house dust in living spaces and soil adjacent to parking lots sealed with coal-tar-based products. To date, no studies have examined the potential human health effects of PAHs from these products in dust and soil. Here we present the results of an analysis of potential cancer risk associated with incidental ingestion exposures to PAHs in settings near coal-tar-sealed pavement. Exposures to benzo[a]pyrene equivalents were characterized across five scenarios. The central tendency estimate of excess cancer risk resulting from lifetime exposures to soil and dust from nondietary ingestion in these settings exceeded 1 × 10–4, as determined using deterministic and probabilistic methods. Soil was the primary driver of risk, but according to probabilistic calculations, reasonable maximum exposure to affected house dust in the first 6 years of life was sufficient to generate an estimated excess lifetime cancer risk of 6 × 10–5. Our results indicate that the presence of coal-tar-based pavement sealants is associated with significant increases in estimated excess lifetime cancer risk for nearby residents. Much of this calculated excess risk arises from exposures to PAHs in early childhood (i.e., 0–6 years of age).

Thyroid Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

Cancer.gov

The R package thyroid implements a risk prediction model developed by NCI researchers to calculate the absolute risk of developing a second primary thyroid cancer (SPTC) in individuals who were diagnosed with a cancer during their childhood.

[Prognostic value of absolute monocyte count in chronic lymphocytic leukaemia].

PubMed

Szerafin, László; Jakó, János; Riskó, Ferenc

2015-04-01

The low peripheral absolute lymphocyte and high monocyte count have been reported to correlate with poor clinical outcome in various lymphomas and other cancers. However, a few data known about the prognostic value of absolute monocyte count in chronic lymphocytic leukaemia. The aim of the authors was to investigate the impact of absolute monocyte count measured at the time of diagnosis in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukaemia on the time to treatment and overal survival. Between January 1, 2005 and December 31, 2012, 223 patients with newly-diagnosed chronic lymphocytic leukaemia were included. The rate of patients needing treatment, time to treatment, overal survival and causes of mortality based on Rai stages, CD38, ZAP-70 positivity and absolute monocyte count were analyzed. Therapy was necessary in 21.1%, 57.4%, 88.9%, 88.9% and 100% of patients in Rai stage 0, I, II, III an IV, respectively; in 61.9% and 60.8% of patients exhibiting CD38 and ZAP-70 positivity, respectively; and in 76.9%, 21.2% and 66.2% of patients if the absolute monocyte count was <0.25 G/l, between 0.25-0.75 G/l and >0.75 G/l, respectively. The median time to treatment and the median overal survival were 19.5, 65, and 35.5 months; and 41.5, 65, and 49.5 months according to the three groups of monocyte counts. The relative risk of beginning the therapy was 1.62 (p<0.01) in patients with absolute monocyte count <0.25 G/l or >0.75 G/l, as compared to those with 0.25-0.75 G/l, and the risk of overal survival was 2.41 (p<0.01) in patients with absolute monocyte count lower than 0.25 G/l as compared to those with higher than 0.25 G/l. The relative risks remained significant in Rai 0 patients, too. The leading causes of mortality were infections (41.7%) and the chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (58.3%) in patients with low monocyte count, while tumours (25.9-35.3%) and other events (48.1 and 11.8%) occurred in patients with medium or high monocyte counts. Patients with low and high monocyte counts had a shorter time to treatment compared to patients who belonged to the intermediate monocyte count group. The low absolute monocyte count was associated with increased mortality caused by infectious complications and chronic lymphocytic leukaemia. The absolute monocyte count may give additional prognostic information in Rai stage 0, too.

Realized volatility and absolute return volatility: a comparison indicating market risk.

PubMed

Zheng, Zeyu; Qiao, Zhi; Takaishi, Tetsuya; Stanley, H Eugene; Li, Baowen

2014-01-01

Measuring volatility in financial markets is a primary challenge in the theory and practice of risk management and is essential when developing investment strategies. Although the vast literature on the topic describes many different models, two nonparametric measurements have emerged and received wide use over the past decade: realized volatility and absolute return volatility. The former is strongly favored in the financial sector and the latter by econophysicists. We examine the memory and clustering features of these two methods and find that both enable strong predictions. We compare the two in detail and find that although realized volatility has a better short-term effect that allows predictions of near-future market behavior, absolute return volatility is easier to calculate and, as a risk indicator, has approximately the same sensitivity as realized volatility. Our detailed empirical analysis yields valuable guidelines for both researchers and market participants because it provides a significantly clearer comparison of the strengths and weaknesses of the two methods.

Realized Volatility and Absolute Return Volatility: A Comparison Indicating Market Risk

PubMed Central

Takaishi, Tetsuya; Stanley, H. Eugene; Li, Baowen

2014-01-01

Measuring volatility in financial markets is a primary challenge in the theory and practice of risk management and is essential when developing investment strategies. Although the vast literature on the topic describes many different models, two nonparametric measurements have emerged and received wide use over the past decade: realized volatility and absolute return volatility. The former is strongly favored in the financial sector and the latter by econophysicists. We examine the memory and clustering features of these two methods and find that both enable strong predictions. We compare the two in detail and find that although realized volatility has a better short-term effect that allows predictions of near-future market behavior, absolute return volatility is easier to calculate and, as a risk indicator, has approximately the same sensitivity as realized volatility. Our detailed empirical analysis yields valuable guidelines for both researchers and market participants because it provides a significantly clearer comparison of the strengths and weaknesses of the two methods. PMID:25054439

Prediction of 10-year coronary heart disease risk in Caribbean type 2 diabetic patients using the UKPDS risk engine.

PubMed

Ezenwaka, C E; Nwagbara, E; Seales, D; Okali, F; Hussaini, S; Raja, Bn; Jones-LeCointe, A; Sell, H; Avci, H; Eckel, J

2009-03-06

Primary prevention of Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) in diabetic patients should be based on absolute CHD risk calculation. This study was aimed to determine the levels of 10-year CHD risk in Caribbean type 2 diabetic patients using the diabetes specific United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) risk engine calculator. Three hundred and twenty-five (106 males, 219 females) type 2 diabetic patients resident in two Caribbean Islands of Tobago and Trinidad met the UKPDS risk engine inclusion criteria. Records of their sex, age, ethnicity, smoking habit, diabetes duration, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol and glycated haemoglobin were entered into the UKPDS risk engine calculator programme and the absolute 10-year CHD and stroke risk levels were computed. The 10-year CHD and stroke risks were statistically stratified into <15%, 15-30% and >30% CHD risk levels and differences between patients of African and Asian-Indian origin were compared. In comparison with patients in Tobago, type 2 diabetic patients in Trinidad, irrespective of gender, had higher proportion of 10-year CHD risk (10.4 vs. 23.6%, P<0.001) whereas the overall 10-year stroke risk prediction was higher in patients resident in Tobago (16.9 vs. 11.4%, P<0.001). Ethnicity-based analysis revealed that irrespective of gender, higher proportion of patients of Indian origin scored >30% of absolute 10-year CHD risk compared with patients of African descent (3.2 vs. 28.2%, P<0.001). The results of the study identified diabetic patients resident in Trinidad and patients of Indian origin as the most vulnerable groups for CHD. These groups of diabetic patients should have priority in primary or secondary prevention of coronary heart disease.

Cardiovascular disease in Adult Life after Childhood Cancer in Scandinavia: A population-based cohort study of 32,308 one-year survivors.

PubMed

Gudmundsdottir, Thorgerdur; Winther, Jeanette F; de Fine Licht, Sofie; Bonnesen, Trine G; Asdahl, Peter H; Tryggvadottir, Laufey; Anderson, Harald; Wesenberg, Finn; Malila, Nea; Hasle, Henrik; Olsen, Jørgen H

2015-09-01

The lifetime risk for cardiovascular disease in a large cohort of childhood cancer survivors has not been fully assessed. In a retrospective population-based cohort study predicated on comprehensive national health registers, we identified a cohort of 32,308 one-year survivors of cancer diagnosed before the age of 20 in the five Nordic countries between the start of cancer registration in the 1940s and 1950s to 2008; 211,489 population comparison subjects were selected from national population registers. Study subjects were linked to national hospital registers, and the observed numbers of first hospital admission for cardiovascular disease among survivors were compared with the expected numbers derived from the population comparison cohort. Cardiovascular disease was diagnosed in 2,632 childhood cancer survivors (8.1%), yielding a standardized hospitalization rate ratio (RR) of 2.1 (95% CI 2.0-2.2) and an overall absolute excess risk (AER) of 324 per 100,000 person-years. At the end of follow-up 12% of the survivors were ≥ 50 years of age and 4.5% ≥ 60 years of age. Risk estimates were significantly increased throughout life, with an AER of ∼500-600 per 100,000 person-years at age ≥ 40. The highest relative risks were seen for heart failure (RR, 5.2; 95% CI 4.5-5.9), valvular dysfunction (4.6; 3.8-5.5) and cerebrovascular diseases (3.7; 3.4-4.1). Survivors of hepatic tumor, Hodgkin lymphoma and leukemia had the highest overall risks for cardiovascular disease, although each main type of childhood cancer had increased risk with different risk profiles. Nordic childhood cancer survivors are at markedly increased risk for cardiovascular disorders throughout life. These findings indicate the need for preventive interventions and continuous follow-up for this rapidly growing population. © 2015 UICC.

[15 years after the accident at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant].

PubMed

Buldakov, L A; Gus'kova, A K

2002-01-01

Health effects as a result of the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant occurred in 1986 are considered in the paper. Wrong prognosis of the health effects with respect to mortality and morbidity among the population exposed to low radiation doses is shown. Proven increase in thyroid cancer cases among people who were children aged from 0 to 18 at the time of the accident is shown. Linear relationship between thyroid cancer cases and dose to thyroid ranged from 0.2 to 4.0 Gy is considered. An additional absolute risk of thyroid cancer in children varies in the range 1.9-2.6 cases per 10(4) person-year Gy. During the fifteen years following the accident no cases of acute and chronic radiation sickness have been revealed because the population living in contaminated areas received low radiation doses. Also, exposures to low radiation doses did not result in excess of malignant tumors among population. In some cases the outcomes of acute radiation sickness were as follows: radiation damages to the skin, cancer cataracts, development of oncopathology.

[Cancer of the colorectum in the aged. Clinical considerations with reference to our case series of 65 operated cases during the triennial, 1984-1986].

PubMed

De Fabritiis, G; Pirazzoli, G; Seracchioli, S; Tuci, C; Pavanello, P M

1989-05-31

Starting from the note that in industrialised countries colorectal tumours are an increasingly serious problem, especially in the elderly, and after some epidemiological remarks, a personal series of 65 consecutive operations on over--70s in a three-year period is considered. Personal statistics are analysed following careful assessment of risk factors and the immediate and long-term surgical results, also examined on the basis of reported data. It is noted, first, that age is never an absolute contraindication to surgery; second that early diagnosis is basic for the achievement of an improved prognosis: proof of this lies in the excessive number of emergency operations for occlusion or perforation. On the other hand, while it is true that extreme radicalism at an advanced stage does not imply any substantial modification to prognosis, it should also be recognised that the shortening of surgical times (after the introduction of mechanical staplers and the improvement in anaesthesiological assistance techniques) offer greater scope for manoeuvre.

Glucagon orchestrates stress-induced hyperglycaemia.

PubMed

Harp, J B; Yancopoulos, G D; Gromada, J

2016-07-01

Hyperglycaemia is commonly observed on admission and during hospitalization for medical illness, traumatic injury, burn and surgical intervention. This transient hyperglycaemia is referred to as stress-induced hyperglycaemia (SIH) and frequently occurs in individuals without a history of diabetes. SIH has many of the same underlying hormonal disturbances as diabetes mellitus, specifically absolute or relative insulin deficiency and glucagon excess. SIH has the added features of elevated blood levels of catecholamines and cortisol, which are not typically present in people with diabetes who are not acutely ill. The seriousness of SIH is highlighted by its greater morbidity and mortality rates compared with those of hospitalized patients with normal glucose levels, and this increased risk is particularly high in those without pre-existing diabetes. Insulin is the treatment standard for SIH, but new therapies that reduce glucose variability and hypoglycaemia are desired. In the present review, we focus on the key role of glucagon in SIH and discuss the potential use of glucagon receptor blockers and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists in SIH to achieve target glucose control. © 2016 The Authors. Diabetes, Obesity and Metabolism published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Physical Activity and Obesity: Biomechanical and Physiological Key Concepts

PubMed Central

Nantel, Julie; Mathieu, Marie-Eve; Prince, François

2011-01-01

Overweight (OW) and obesity (OB) are often associated with low levels of physical activity. Physical activity is recommended to reduce excess body weight, prevent body weight regain, and decrease the subsequent risks of developing metabolic and orthopedic conditions. However, the impact of OW and OB on motor function and daily living activities must be taken into account. OW and OB are associated with musculoskeletal structure changes, decreased mobility, modification of the gait pattern, and changes in the absolute and relative energy expenditures for a given activity. While changes in the gait pattern have been reported at the ankle, knee, and hip, modifications at the knee level might be the most challenging for articular integrity. This review of the literature combines concepts and aims to provide insights into the prescription of physical activity for this population. Topics covered include the repercussions of OW and OB on biomechanical and physiological responses associated with the musculoskeletal system and daily physical activity. Special attention is given to the effect of OW and OB in youth during postural (standing) and various locomotor (walking, running, and cycling) activities. PMID:21113311

Cancer morbidity among workers in the telecommunications industry.

PubMed Central

Vågerö, D; Ahlbom, A; Olin, R; Sahlsten, S

1985-01-01

A retrospective cohort study of 2918 workers in the telecommunications industry in Sweden recorded the cancer morbidity for the period 1958-79. Cases of cancer were collected from the Swedish Cancer Registry for this period and information on work characteristics was collected for the entire period of employment. The total cancer morbidity was as expected. There was no excess risk of lung cancer but an excess risk of malignant melanoma of the skin was detected (SMR = 2.6, 12 cases). This excess risk was particularly associated with work environments where soldering was practised. Estimates of the SMR became larger with the assumption of a longer induction/latency period. PMID:3970885

76 FR 23860 - Financial Management Service Proposed Collection of Information: Schedule of Excess Risks

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-04-28

... DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY Fiscal Service Financial Management Service Proposed Collection of Information: Schedule of Excess Risks AGENCY: Financial Management Service, Fiscal Service, Treasury. ACTION: Notice and request for comments. SUMMARY: The Financial Management Service, as part of its continuing...

Prenatal Valproate Exposure and Risk of Autism Spectrum Disorders and Childhood Autism

PubMed Central

Christensen, Jakob; Grønborg, Therese Koops; Sørensen, Merete Juul; Schendel, Diana; Parner, Erik Thorlund; Pedersen, Lars Henning; Vestergaard, Mogens

2015-01-01

Importance Valproate is used for the treatment of epilepsy and other neuropsychological disorders and may be the only treatment option for women of childbearing potential. However, prenatal exposure to valproate may increase the risk of autism. Objective To determine whether prenatal exposure to valproate is associated with an increased risk of autism in offspring. Design, Setting, and Participants Population-based study of all children born alive in Denmark from 1996 to 2006. National registers were used to identify children exposed to valproate during pregnancy and diagnosed with autism spectrum disorders (childhood autism [autistic disorder], Asperger syndrome, atypical autism, and other or unspecified pervasive developmental disorders). We analyzed the risks associated with all autism spectrum disorders as well as childhood autism. Data were analyzed by Cox regression adjusting for potential confounders (maternal age at conception, paternal age at conception, parental psychiatric history, gestational age, birth weight, sex, congenital malformations, and parity). Children were followed up from birth until the day of autism spectrum disorder diagnosis, death, emigration, or December 31, 2010, whichever came first. Main Outcomes and Measures Absolute risk (cumulative incidence) and the hazard ratio (HR) of autism spectrum disorder and childhood autism in children after exposure to valproate in pregnancy. Results Of 655 615 children born from 1996 through 2006, 5437 were identified with autism spectrum disorder, including 2067 with childhood autism. The mean age of the children at end of follow-up was 8.84 years (range, 4-14; median, 8.85). The estimated absolute risk after 14 years of follow-up was 1.53% (95% CI, 1.47%- 1.58%) for autism spectrum disorder and 0.48% (95% CI, 0.46%-0.51%) for childhood autism. Overall, the 508 children exposed to valproate had an absolute risk of 4.42% (95% CI, 2.59%-7.46%) for autism spectrum disorder (adjusted HR, 2.9 [95% CI, 1.7-4.9]) and an absolute risk of 2.50% (95% CI, 1.30%-4.81%) for childhood autism (adjusted HR, 5.2 [95% CI, 2.7-10.0]). When restricting the cohort to the 6584 children born to women with epilepsy, the absolute risk of autism spectrum disorder among 432 children exposed to valproate was 4.15% (95% CI, 2.20%-7.81%) (adjusted HR, 1.7 [95% CI, 0.9-3.2]), and the absolute risk of childhood autism was 2.95% (95% CI, 1.42%-6.11%) (adjusted HR, 2.9 [95% CI, 1.4-6.0]) vs 2.44% (95% CI, 1.88%-3.16%) for autism spectrum disorder and 1.02% (95% CI, 0.70%-1.49%) for childhood autism among 6152 children not exposed to valproate. Conclusions and Relevance Maternal use of valproate during pregnancy was associated with a significantly increased risk of autism spectrum disorder and childhood autism in the offspring, even after adjusting for maternal epilepsy. For women of childbearing potential who use antiepileptic medications, these findings must be balanced against the treatment benefits for women who require valproate for epilepsy control. PMID:23613074

Preferences of owners of overweight dogs when buying commercial pet food.

PubMed

Suarez, L; Peña, C; Carretón, E; Juste, M C; Bautista-Castaño, I; Montoya-Alonso, J A

2012-08-01

Most pet dogs in developed countries are fed commercial diets. The aim of this study was to evaluate the preferences of owners of overweight dogs when buying commercial pet food. The study was a descriptive observational multi-centre study on a group of 198 owners of urban household dogs. Personal interviews were conducted to examine the owners' opinions with questions rating the importance of certain qualities of prepared dog food. Bivariate analyses for comparisons of absolute means between groups of owners of dogs with excess weight (n = 137) and owners of normal weight dogs (n = 61) were made using the Mann-Whitney U-test. A low price (p < 0.001) and special offers (p = 0.008) of commercial dog food were more important for owners of dogs with excess weight than for owners of normal weight dogs. The quality of ingredients (p = 0.007) and the nutritional composition (p < 0.001) were more important for owners of normal weight dogs than for owners of dogs with excess weight. The veterinarian was the most important source of information on dog nutrition for both groups (83.6% for owners of normal weight dogs and 83.2% for owners of dogs with excess weight) (p = 0.88). The owners of dogs with excess weight had less interest in corrected dog nutrition than owners of normal weight dogs (p < 0.001). © 2011 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

No Absolutism Here: Harm Predicts Moral Judgment 30× Better Than Disgust-Commentary on Scott, Inbar, & Rozin (2016).

PubMed

Gray, Kurt; Schein, Chelsea

2016-05-01

Moral absolutism is the idea that people's moral judgments are insensitive to considerations of harm. Scott, Inbar, and Rozin (2016, this issue) claim that most moral opponents to genetically modified organisms are absolutely opposed-motivated by disgust and not harm. Yet there is no evidence for moral absolutism in their data. Perceived risk/harm is the most significant predictor of moral judgments for "absolutists," accounting for 30 times more variance than disgust. Reanalyses suggest that disgust is not even a significant predictor of the moral judgments of absolutists once accounting for perceived harm and anger. Instead of revealing actual moral absolutism, Scott et al. find only empty absolutism: hypothetical, forecasted, self-reported moral absolutism. Strikingly, the moral judgments of so-called absolutists are somewhat more sensitive to consequentialist concerns than those of nonabsolutists. Mediation reanalyses reveal that moral judgments are most proximally predicted by harm and not disgust, consistent with dyadic morality. © The Author(s) 2016.

NT-proBNP and Heart Failure Risk Among Individuals With and Without Obesity: The ARIC Study

PubMed Central

Ndumele, Chiadi E.; Matsushita, Kunihiro; Sang, Yingying; Lazo, Mariana; Agarwal, Sunil K.; Nambi, Vijay; Deswal, Anita; Blumenthal, Roger S.; Ballantyne, Christie M.; Coresh, Josef; Selvin, Elizabeth

2016-01-01

Background Obesity is a risk factor for heart failure (HF), but is associated with lower N-terminal of pro-Brain Natriuretic Peptide (NT-proBNP) levels. It is unclear whether the prognostic value and implications of NT-proBNP levels for HF risk differ across body mass index (BMI) categories. Methods and Results We followed 12,230 ARIC participants free of prior HF at baseline (visit 2, 1990–1992) with BMI ≥18.5 kg/m2. We quantified and compared the relative and absolute risk associations of NT-proBNP with incident HF across BMI categories. There were 1,861 HF events during a median 20.6 years of follow-up. Despite increased HF risk in obesity, a weak inverse association was seen between baseline BMI and NT-proBNP levels (r = −0.10). Nevertheless, higher baseline NT-proBNP was associated with increased HF risk in all BMI categories. NT-proBNP improved HF risk prediction overall and even among those with severe obesity (BMI ≥35 kg/m2; improvement in c-statistic +0.032 [95% CI 0.011–0.053]). However, given higher HF rates among those with obesity, at each NT-proBNP level, higher BMI was associated with greater absolute HF risk. Indeed, among those with NT-proBNP 100 to < 200 pg/ml, the average 10-year HF risk was <5% among normal weight individuals but >10% if severely obese. Conclusions Despite its inverse relationship with BMI, NT-proBNP provides significant prognostic information regarding the risk of developing HF even among individuals with obesity. Given the higher baseline HF risk among persons with obesity, even slight elevations in NT-proBNP may have implications for increased absolute HF risk in this population. PMID:26746175

Breast Cancer Risk Assessment SAS Macro (Gail Model)

Cancer.gov

A SAS macro (commonly referred to as the Gail Model) that projects absolute risk of invasive breast cancer according to NCI’s Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (BCRAT) algorithm for specified race/ethnic groups and age intervals.

Biotransformation of Various Substituted Aromatic Compounds to Chiral Dihydrodihydroxy Derivatives

PubMed Central

Raschke, Henning; Meier, Michael; Burken, Joel G.; Hany, Roland; Müller, Markus D.; Van Der Meer, Jan Roelof; Kohler, Hans-Peter E.

2001-01-01

The biotransformation of four different classes of aromatic compounds by the Escherichia coli strain DH5α(pTCB 144), which contained the chlorobenzene dioxygenase (CDO) from Pseudomonas sp. strain P51, was examined. CDO oxidized biphenyl as well as monochlorobiphenyls to the corresponding cis-2,3-dihydro-2,3-dihydroxy derivatives, whereby oxidation occurred on the unsubstituted ring. No higher substituted biphenyls were oxidized. The absolute configurations of several monosubstituted cis-benzene dihydrodiols formed by CDO were determined. All had an S configuration at the carbon atom in meta position to the substituent on the benzene nucleus. With one exception, the enantiomeric excess of several 1,4-disubstituted cis-benzene dihydrodiols formed by CDO was higher than that of the products formed by two toluene dioxygenases. Naphthalene was oxidized to enantiomerically pure (+)-cis-(1R,2S)-dihydroxy-1,2-dihydronaphthalene. All absolute configurations were identical to those of the products formed by toluene dioxygenases of Pseudomonas putida UV4 and P. putida F39/D. The formation rate of (+)-cis-(1R,2S)-dihydroxy-1,2-dihydronaphthalene was significantly higher (about 45 to 200%) than those of several monosubstituted cis-benzene dihydrodiols and more than four times higher than the formation rate of cis-benzene dihydrodiol. A new gas chromatographic method was developed to determine the enantiomeric excess of the oxidation products. PMID:11472901

A review of epidemiological data on epilepsy, phenobarbital, and risk of liver cancer.

PubMed

La Vecchia, Carlo; Negri, Eva

2014-01-01

Phenobarbital is not genotoxic, but has been related to promotion of liver cancer (as well as inhibition) in rodents. In October 2012, we carried out a systematic literature search in the Medline database and searched reference lists of retrieved publications. We identified 15 relevant papers. Epidemiological data on epileptics/anticonvulsant use and liver cancer were retrieved from eight reports from seven cohort (record linkage) studies of epileptics, and data on phenobarbital use from a pharmacy-based record linkage investigation of patients treated with phenobarbital (three reports), plus a case-control study nested in one of the cohort studies and including information on phenobarbital use. Of the studies of cancer in epileptics, two showed no excess risk of liver cancer. A long-term (1933-1984) Danish cohort study of epileptics found relative risks (RRs) of 4.7 [95% confidence interval (CI) 3.2-6.8] of liver cancer and of 2.2 (95% CI 1.2-3.5) of biliary tract cancers. Such apparent excess risks could, however, be largely or completely attributed to thorotrast, a contrast medium used in the past in epileptic patients for cerebral angiography. A Finnish cohort study of epileptics obtained an RR of 1.7 (95% CI 1.2-2.4). Such an apparent excess risk, however, was not related to phenobarbital or to any specific anticonvulsant drug. The long-term follow-up of two UK cohorts found some excess risk of liver cancer among severe, but not among mild, epileptics. Some excess risk of liver cancer was also found in cohort studies of patients hospitalized for epilepsy in Sweden and Taiwan, in the absence, however, of association with any specific drugs. A UK General Practice database, comparing epileptics treated with valproate with unexposed ones, found a very low incidence of liver cancer. Of the studies of cancer in patients treated with phenobarbital, a large US pharmacy-based cohort investigation showed no excess risk of liver cancer. In a case-control study, nested in the Danish cohort of epileptics, no association was observed between phenobarbital and liver cancer among patients who had not received thorotrast (RR=1.0 for liver and 0.8 for biliary tract cancers). Thus, some, although not all, studies reported excess risk of all cancers and liver cancer in severe, but not in milder epileptics. There is no evidence of a specific role of phenobarbital in human liver cancer risk, but data on the topic are limited.

Prevalence and predictors of early gestational weight gain associated with obesity risk in a diverse Australian antenatal population: a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Cheney, K; Berkemeier, S; Sim, K A; Gordon, A; Black, K

2017-09-07

Excess gestational weight gain (GWG) leads to adverse short- and long-term consequences for women and their offspring. Evidence suggests that excess GWG in early pregnancy may be particularly detrimental, contributing to the intergenerational cycle of obesity. The primary outcome was to investigate the prevalence and predictors of excess GWG in early pregnancy, and if women understand the risks to themselves and their offspring stratified by maternal body mass index (BMI). This was a secondary analysis (n = 2131) of a cross-sectional study (n = 2338) conducted over 6 months in 2015 of pregnant women attending antenatal clinics at four maternity hospitals across Sydney, Australia before 22 completed weeks gestation An self-completed questionnaire was used to investigate knowledge of expected weight gain in pregnancy, understanding of risks associated with excess GWG, self-reported anthropometric measures and socio-demographic data. One third (34.2%) of women gained weight in excess of the recommendations by 22 completed weeks gestation. Women who were overweight (OR: 1.69, 95% CI: 1.33-2.14) or obese (OR: 1.64, 95% CI: 1.20-2.24) pre-pregnancy were more likely to gain excess weight in early pregnancy compared to normal weight women; as were women from lower socio-economic areas (OR: 1.89, 95% CI: 1.49-2.41). Half (51%) the women were unsure about the effect of excess GWG on their baby; 11% did not believe that excess GWG would affect the weight of the baby and 14% did not believe that excess GWG would affect longer term outcomes for their baby. Women who gained weight above the recommendations were significantly more likely to believe that excessive GWG in pregnancy would not have any adverse future effect on health outcomes or weight of their baby. The women at particular risk of excess early GWG are those who are overweight and obese and/or residing in lower socio-economic areas. These women need to be targeted for appropriate counselling preconception or in early pregnancy. Given the significant adverse outcomes associated with excess GWG in early pregnancy, preconception or early pregnancy counselling with respect to GWG and intervention research regarding best approach remains a public health priority.

The source and significance of argon isotopes in fluid inclusions from areas of mineralization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelley, S.; Turner, G.; Butterfield, A. W.; Shepherd, T. J.

1986-09-01

Argon isotopes in fluid inclusions in quartz veins associated with granite-hosted tungsten mineralization in the southwest and north of England have been investigated in detail by the 40Ar- 39Ar technique. The natural argon is present as a number of discrete components which can be identified through correlations with 39Ar, 38Ar and 37Ar induced by neutron bombardment of potassium, chlorine and calcium. The potassium-correlated component arises principally from in situ decay of potassium in solid phases in the inclusions. In the case of the Hemerdon tungsten deposit of southwest England the phases responsible are small (≈ 25 μm) captive authigenic micas which are shown to have been deposited from a fluid 268 ± 20 Ma ago, shortly after the emplacement of the host granite. The chlorine-correlated component is present in the brines which constitute the fluid phase of the inclusions. The argon in these hydrothermal fluids is made up in part of "parentless" or "excess" 40Ar leached from surrounding crustal rocks, and in part of dissolved ancient atmospheric argon. Absolute concentrations of both atmospheric and excess components in the brine can be estimated from ( 40ArCl ) ratios and independent determinations of the salinity of the inclusions. The absolute concentrations of the atmospheric argon are close to those found in modern meteoric water, while those of the excess component can be interpreted in terms of the degree of interaction betwen the circulating fluids and country rock. A calcium-correlated component, with a much higher ratio of excess to atmospheric argon than that in the brine, was found to be a dominant phase in one sample from the Hemerdon deposit, indicating the presence of a solid phase (probably a CaSO 4 daughter mineral). Inclusions of this composition represent fluids which have had a more prolonged interaction- with crustal rocks. The results obtained from this study provide a systematization and a framework for future multi-component argon studies of fluid inclusions, together with an indication of the wide range of information which can be inferred.

The utility of absolute risk prediction using FRAX® and Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator in daily practice.

PubMed

van Geel, Tineke A C M; Eisman, John A; Geusens, Piet P; van den Bergh, Joop P W; Center, Jacqueline R; Dinant, Geert-Jan

2014-02-01

There are two commonly used fracture risk prediction tools FRAX(®) and Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator (GARVAN-FRC). The objective of this study was to investigate the utility of these tools in daily practice. A prospective population-based 5-year follow-up study was conducted in ten general practice centres in the Netherlands. For the analyses, the FRAX(®) and GARVAN-FRC 10-year absolute risks (FRAX(®) does not have 5-year risk prediction) for all fractures were used. Among 506 postmenopausal women aged ≥60 years (mean age: 67.8±5.8 years), 48 (9.5%) sustained a fracture during follow-up. Both tools, using BMD values, distinguish between women who did and did not fracture (10.2% vs. 6.8%, respectively for FRAX(®) and 32.4% vs. 39.1%, respectively for GARVAN-FRC, p<0.0001) at group level. However, only 8.9% of those who sustained a fracture had an estimated fracture risk ≥20% using FRAX(®) compared with 53.3% using GARVAN-FRC. Although both underestimated the observed fracture risk, the GARVAN-FRC performed significantly better for women who sustained a fracture (higher sensitivity) and FRAX(®) for women who did not sustain a fracture (higher specificity). Similar results were obtained using age related cut off points. The discriminant value of both models is at least as good as models used in other medical conditions; hence they can be used to communicate the fracture risk to patients. However, given differences in the estimated risks between FRAX(®) and GARVAN-FRC, the significance of the absolute risk must be related to country-specific recommended intervention thresholds to inform the patient. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A nationwide study of ovarian serous borderline tumors in Denmark 1978-2002. Risk of recurrence, and development of ovarian serous carcinoma.

PubMed

Hannibal, Charlotte Gerd; Vang, Russell; Junge, Jette; Frederiksen, Kirsten; Kurman, Robert J; Kjaer, Susanne K

2017-01-01

Absolute risk and risk factors for recurrence and ovarian serous carcinoma following ovarian serous borderline tumors (SBTs) is not well-established. We included all women with SBTs in Denmark, 1978-2002. Diagnoses were confirmed by centralized pathology review and classified as atypical proliferative serous tumor (APST) or noninvasive low-grade serous carcinoma (LGSC). Implants were classified as noninvasive or invasive. Medical records were collected and reviewed, and follow-up was obtained. Subsequent diagnoses were also confirmed by centralized pathology review. We examined absolute risk and risk factors for recurrent APST and serous carcinoma using Cox regression. The absolute serous carcinoma risk after, respectively, 5 and 20years was 5.0% and 13.9% for noninvasive LGSC, and 0.9% and 3.7% for APST. Serous carcinoma risk was significantly higher following noninvasive LGSC compared with APST among stage I patients/patients without implants (HR=5.3; 95% CI: 1.7-16.3), whereas no significant association with tumor type was found in advanced stage patients/patients with implants. Advanced stage - notably invasive implants - bilaterality, surface involvement, and residual disease increased serous carcinoma risk. However, women with stage I APST also had a higher risk than the general population. This largest population-based cohort of verified SBTs revealed that women with noninvasive LGSC are significantly more likely to develop serous carcinoma than women with APST, which could not entirely be explained by invasive implants. Although invasive implants was a strong risk factor for serous carcinoma, even women with stage I APST were at increased risk compared with the general population. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Consumption of free sugars and excess weight in infants. A longitudinal study].

PubMed

Jardí, Cristina; Aranda, Núria; Bedmar, Cristina; Ribot, Blanca; Elias, Irene; Aparicio, Estefania; Arija, Victoria

2018-05-14

The consumption of free sugars has been related to excess weight, with the WHO recommending an intake of <10% of total energy. The aim of this study is to assess the association between the consumption of free sugars at 12 months and the risk of excess weight at 30 months in healthy children. A longitudinal study was conducted on 81 children followed-up from birth to 30 months. A record was made of the clinical history and anthropometry, at birth, and at 12 and 30 months. Weight status was classified as with or without excess weight, according to WHO values. At 12 months, the intake of energy and nutrients was analysed by differentiating the intake of free and natural sugars. Multivariate analyses adjusted for the main confounding variables were performed. Free sugars were consumed by 40.4% of the 12-month-old children, being higher than that recommended, and being significantly higher in children with excess weight at 30 months (60.9%). The higher intake of free sugars at 12 months is associated with an increased risk of excess weight at 30 months (OR: 1.130, 95% CI: 1.032-1.238). The consumption of free sugars is much higher than that recommended in 12-month-old infants. This high intake could be a risk factor for excess weight, even at early ages. Copyright © 2018. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U.

Light deficiency confers breast cancer risk by endocrine disorders.

PubMed

Suba, Zsuzsanna

2012-09-01

North-America and northern European countries exhibit the highest incidence rate of breast cancer, whereas women in southern regions are relatively protected. Immigrants from low cancer incidence regions to high-incidence areas might exhibit similarly higher or excessive cancer risk as compared with the inhabitants of their adoptive country. Additional cancer risk may be conferred by incongruence between their biological characteristics and foreign environment. Many studies established the racial/ethnic disparities in the risk and nature of female breast cancer in United States between African-American and Caucasian women. Mammary tumors in black women are diagnosed at earlier age, and are associated with higher rate of mortality as compared with cancers of white cases. Results of studies on these ethnic/racial differences in breast cancer incidence suggest that excessive pigmentation of dark skinned women results in a relative light-deficiency. Poor light exposure may explain the deleterious metabolic and hormonal alterations; such as insulin resistance, deficiencies of estrogen, thyroxin and vitamin-D conferring excessive cancer risk. The more northern the location of an adoptive country the higher the cancer risk for dark skinned immigrants. Recognition of the deleterious systemic effects of darkness and excessive melatonin synthesis enables cancer protection treatment for people living in light-deficient environment. Recent patents provide new methods for the prevention of hormonal and metabolic abnormities.

Excessive occupational heat exposure: a significant ergonomic challenge and health risk for current and future workers

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Occupational heat exposure threatens the health of a worker not only when heat illness occurs but also when a worker’s performance and work capacity is impaired. Occupational contexts that involve hot and humid climatic conditions, heavy physical workloads and/or protective clothing create a strenuous and potentially dangerous thermal load for a worker. There are recognized heat prevention strategies and international thermal ergonomic standards to protect the worker. However, such standards have been developed largely in temperate western settings, and their validity and relevance is questionable for some geographical, cultural and socioeconomic contexts where the risk of excessive heat exposure can be high. There is evidence from low- and middle-income tropical countries that excessive heat exposure remains a significant issue for occupational health. Workers in these countries are likely to be at high risk of excessive heat exposure as they are densely populated, have large informal work sectors and are expected to experience substantial increases in temperature due to global climate change. The aim of this paper is to discuss current and future ergonomic risks associated with working in the heat as well as potential methods for maintaining the health and productivity of workers, particularly those most vulnerable to excessive heat exposure. PMID:25057350

Effects of sex steroids on women's health: implications for practitioners.

PubMed

Derman, R J

1995-01-16

Androgen excess in women is manifested typically by clinical features that may include hirsutism, acne, central obesity, male-pattern baldness, upper torso widening, increased waist-to-hip ratio, clitoral hypertrophy, and deepening of the voice. The differential diagnosis includes androgen-producing ovarian and adrenal neoplasms, Cushing's syndrome, polycystic ovary syndrome, and the intake of exogenous androgens. Physicians treating patients for one symptom of androgen excess must be alert for other symptoms and signs. The cosmetic manifestations of androgen excess belie the serious health risks associated with this condition, including cardiovascular disease, intravascular thrombosis, and insulin resistance. Prompt clinical recognition of androgen excess, understanding of the androgen-related biochemical abnormalities underlying the risks associated with this condition, and implementation of risk modification can reduce the incidence of associated morbidity and mortality. An interdisciplinary approach to management is strongly recommended. Risk reduction strategies include correction of dyslipidemias, low-dose aspirin for primary prevention of myocardial infarction, maintenance of ideal weight, smoking cessation, exercise, use of oral contraceptives containing a low-androgenic progestin, and postmenopausal estrogen replacement. Combination oral contraceptives containing low-androgenic progestins are effective not only in reducing signs of androgen excess but also in potentially retarding the progression of long-term sequelae such as cardiovascular disease.

The cardiovascular system in growth hormone excess and growth hormone deficiency.

PubMed

Lombardi, G; Di Somma, C; Grasso, L F S; Savanelli, M C; Colao, A; Pivonello, R

2012-12-01

The clinical conditions associated with GH excess and GH deficiency (GHD) are known to be associated with an increased risk for the cardiovascular morbidity and mortality, suggesting that either an excess or a deficiency in GH and/or IGF-I is deleterious for cardiovascular system. In patients with acromegaly, chronic GH and IGF-I excess commonly causes a specific cardiomyopathy characterized by a concentric cardiac hypertrophy associated with diastolic dysfunction and, in later stages, with systolic dysfunction ending in heart failure if GH/IGF-I excess is not controlled. Abnormalities of cardiac rhythm and anomalies of cardiac valves can also occur. Moreover, the increased prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors, such as hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and insulin resistance, as well as dyslipidemia, confer an increased risk for vascular atherosclerosis. Successful control of the disease is accompanied by a decrease of the cardiac mass and improvement of cardiac function and an improvement in cardiovascular risk factors. In patients with hypopituitarism, GHD has been considered the under- lying factor of the increased mortality when appropriate standard replacement of the pituitary hormones deficiencies is given. Either childhood-onset or adulthood-onset GHD are characterized by a cluster of abnormalities associated with an increased cardiovascular risk, including altered body composition, unfavorable lipid profile, insulin resistance, endothelial dysfunction and vascular atherosclerosis, a decrease in cardiac mass together with an impairment of systolic function mainly after exercise. Treatment with recombinant GH in patients with GHD is followed by an improvement of the cardiovascular risk factors and an increase in cardiac mass together with an improvement in cardiac performance. In conclusion, acromegaly and GHD are associated with an increased risk for cardiovascular morbidity and mortality, but the control of GH/IGF-I secretion reverses cardiovascular abnormalities and restores the normal life expectancy.

Increased nuchal translucency thickness and risk of neurodevelopmental disorders.

PubMed

Hellmuth, S G; Pedersen, L H; Miltoft, C B; Petersen, O B; Kjaergaard, S; Ekelund, C; Tabor, A

2017-05-01

To investigate the association between fetal nuchal translucency (NT) thickness and neurodevelopmental disorders in euploid children. This study included 222 505 euploid children who had undergone routine first-trimester screening during fetal life. Children were divided according to prenatal NT into three groups: NT < 95 th percentile (n = 217 103 (97.6%)); NT 95 th -99 th percentile (n = 4760 (2.1%)); and NT > 99 th percentile (n = 642 (0.3%)). All children were followed-up to a mean age of 4.4 years. Information on diagnoses of intellectual disability, autism spectrum disorders (ASD), cerebral palsy, epilepsy and febrile seizures was obtained from national patient registries. There was no excess risk of neurodevelopmental disorders among euploid children with first-trimester NT 95 th -99 th percentile. For children with NT > 99 th percentile, there were increased risks of intellectual disability (odds ratio (OR), 6.16 (95% CI, 1.51-25.0), 0.31%) and ASD (OR, 2.48 (95% CI, 1.02-5.99), 0.78%) compared with children with NT < 95 th percentile (incidence of 0.05% for intellectual disability and 0.32% for ASD), however, there was no detected increase in the risk of cerebral palsy (OR, 1.91 (95% CI, 0.61-5.95), 0.47%), epilepsy (OR, 1.51 (95% CI, 0.63-3.66), 0.78%) or febrile seizures (OR, 0.72 (95% CI, 0.44-1.16), 2.65%). In a large unselected cohort of euploid children, there was no increased risk of neurodevelopmental disorders among those with a first-trimester NT 95 th -99 th percentile. Among euploid children with first-trimester NT > 99 th percentile, there were increased risks of intellectual disability and ASD, but the absolute risk was reassuringly low (< 1%). Copyright © 2016 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Copyright © 2016 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The educational gradient in coronary heart disease: the association with cognition in a cohort of 57,279 male conscripts.

PubMed

Ariansen, Inger; Mortensen, Laust; Igland, Jannicke; Tell, Grethe S; Tambs, Kristian; Graff-Iversen, Sidsel; Strand, Bjørn Heine; Næss, Øyvind

2015-04-01

Independently of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors, cognitive ability may account for some of the excess risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) associated with lower education. We aimed to assess how late adolescence cognitive ability and midlife CVD risk factors are associated with the educational gradient in CHD in Norway. In a cohort of 57 279 men born during 1949-1959, health survey information was linked to military conscription records of cognitive ability, to national educational data, to hospitalisation records from the Cardiovascular Disease in Norway (CVDNOR) project and to the Norwegian Cause of Death Registry. Age and period adjusted HR for incident CHD events was 3.62 (95% CI 2.50 to 5.24) for basic relative to tertiary education, and was attenuated after adjustment; to 2.86 (1.87 to 4.38) for cognitive ability, to 1.90 (1.30 to 2.78) for CVD risk factors, and to 1.84 (1.20 to 2.83) when adjusting for both. Age and period adjusted absolute rate difference was 51 (33 to 70) incident CHD events per 100,000 person years between basic and tertiary educated, and was attenuated after adjustment; to 42 (22 to 61) for cognitive ability, to 25 (7 to 42) for CVD risk factors, and to 24 (5 to 43) when adjusting for both. Late adolescence cognitive ability attenuated the educational gradient in incident CHD events. CVD risk factors further attenuated the gradient, and to the same extent regardless of whether cognitive ability was included or not. Cognitive ability might be linked to the educational gradient through CVD risk factors. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Dairy intakes at age 10 years do not adversely affect risk of excess adiposity at 13 years.

PubMed

Bigornia, Sherman J; LaValley, Michael P; Moore, Lynn L; Northstone, Kate; Emmett, Pauline; Ness, Andy R; Newby, P K

2014-07-01

Evidence of an association between milk intake and childhood adiposity remains inconsistent, with few data available regarding the effects of the amount of dairy fat consumed. This study examined the relation between dairy consumption (total, full, and reduced fat) at age 10 y on risk of excess adiposity at age 13 y in participants of the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC; n = 2455). Intakes were assessed by 3-d dietary records. Total body fat mass (TBFM) using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry was examined at 13 y. Outcomes included excess TBFM (top quintile of TBFM), overweight, and change in body mass index (BMI). The highest vs. lowest quartile of total dairy consumers (g/d) at age 10 y did not have an increased risk of excess TBFM (OR: 0.73; 95% CI: 0.46, 1.16; P-trend = 0.28) or overweight (OR: 0.69; 95% CI: 0.41, 1.15; P = 0.24) at age 13 y. Children in the highest quartile of full-fat dairy intakes vs. those in the lowest quartile had a reduced risk of excess TBFM (OR: 0.64; 95% CI: 0.41, 1.00; P = 0.04) and a suggestion of a reduction in overweight (OR: 0.65; 95% CI: 0.40, 1.06; P = 0.19) at age 13 y. Furthermore, the highest vs. lowest consumers of full-fat products had smaller gains in BMI during follow-up [2.5 kg/m² (95% CI: 2.2, 2.7) vs. 2.8 kg/m² (95% CI: 2.5, 3.0); P < 0.01]. Associations with reduced-fat dairy consumption did not attain statistical significance. In this study, dairy consumption was not related to excess fat accumulation during late childhood. Estimates had wide confidence limits but generally showed inverse relations between dairy intakes and risk of excess adiposity. Additional prospective research is warranted to confirm the effects of dairy intake on obesity in children.

Ethical implications of excessive cluster sizes in cluster randomised trials.

PubMed

Hemming, Karla; Taljaard, Monica; Forbes, Gordon; Eldridge, Sandra M; Weijer, Charles

2018-02-20

The cluster randomised trial (CRT) is commonly used in healthcare research. It is the gold-standard study design for evaluating healthcare policy interventions. A key characteristic of this design is that as more participants are included, in a fixed number of clusters, the increase in achievable power will level off. CRTs with cluster sizes that exceed the point of levelling-off will have excessive numbers of participants, even if they do not achieve nominal levels of power. Excessively large cluster sizes may have ethical implications due to exposing trial participants unnecessarily to the burdens of both participating in the trial and the potential risks of harm associated with the intervention. We explore these issues through the use of two case studies. Where data are routinely collected, available at minimum cost and the intervention poses low risk, the ethical implications of excessively large cluster sizes are likely to be low (case study 1). However, to maximise the social benefit of the study, identification of excessive cluster sizes can allow for prespecified and fully powered secondary analyses. In the second case study, while there is no burden through trial participation (because the outcome data are routinely collected and non-identifiable), the intervention might be considered to pose some indirect risk to patients and risks to the healthcare workers. In this case study it is therefore important that the inclusion of excessively large cluster sizes is justifiable on other grounds (perhaps to show sustainability). In any randomised controlled trial, including evaluations of health policy interventions, it is important to minimise the burdens and risks to participants. Funders, researchers and research ethics committees should be aware of the ethical issues of excessively large cluster sizes in cluster trials. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Mortality after radiotherapy for ringworm of the scalp

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ron, E.; Modan, B.; Boice, J.D. Jr.

1988-04-01

The mortality experience of 10,834 children treated with x-rays for ringworm of the scalp between 1948 and 1960, 10,834 matched comparison subjects, and 5392 siblings was evaluated over an average follow-up period of 26 years. Mortality was ascertained by linking unique personal identification numbers of study subjects with the national death registry. Radiotherapy in childhood was associated with an increased risk of death due to tumors of the head and neck (relative risk (RR) = 3) and leukemia (RR = 2.3). No other causes of death were significantly elevated after irradiation. The excess of brain tumors (average intracranial dose =more » 150 rads) confirms that the central nervous system of the child is sensitive to the induction of cancers by radiation. The bone marrow dose averaged over the entire body was approximately 30 rad, and the estimated risk coefficient of 0.9 excess leukemias per million per year per rad is consistent with other studies of whole-body exposure. A significant excess of bone and soft tissue sarcomas (RR = 9) was also observed. The pattern of cancer risk over time was bimodal; an early peak due to excess leukemias occurred within a few years of exposure, whereas excesses of solid tumors were most apparent after about 15 years. Despite the excess of cancers among exposed persons, over 50% of the deaths in the entire study population were from external events, mainly accidents or events related to military service. An estimate of the total impact of radiogenic cancer after childhood irradiation will require additional years of observation since the population irradiated is just now entering the age ranges normally associated with high cancer risk.« less

Lifetime excess cancer risk due to carcinogens in food and beverages: Urban versus rural differences in Canada.

PubMed

Cheasley, Roslyn; Keller, C Peter; Setton, Eleanor

2017-09-14

To explore differences in urban versus rural lifetime excess risk of cancer from five specific contaminants found in food and beverages. Probable contaminant intake is estimated using Monte Carlo simulations of contaminant concentrations in combination with dietary patterns. Contaminant concentrations for arsenic, benzene, lead, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and tetrachloroethylene (PERC) were derived from government dietary studies. The dietary patterns of 34 944 Canadians from 10 provinces were available from Health Canada's Canadian Community Health Survey, Cycle 2.2, Nutrition (2004). Associated lifetime excess cancer risk (LECR) was subsequently calculated from the results of the simulations. In the calculation of LECR from food and beverages for the five selected substances, two (lead and PERC) were shown to have excess risk below 10 per million; whereas for the remaining three (arsenic, benzene and PCBs), it was shown that at least 50% of the population were above 10 per million excess cancers. Arsenic residues, ingested via rice and rice cereal, registered the greatest disparity between urban and rural intake, with LECR per million levels well above 1000 per million at the upper bound. The majority of PCBs ingestion comes from meat, with values slightly higher for urban populations and LECR per million estimates between 50 and 400. Drinking water is the primary contributor of benzene intake in both urban and rural populations, with LECR per million estimates of 35 extra cancers in the top 1% of sampled population. Overall, there are few disparities between urban and rural lifetime excess cancer risk from contaminants found in food and beverages. Estimates could be improved with more complete Canadian dietary intake and concentration data in support of detailed exposure assessments in estimating LECR.

Cancer risk in the rubber industry: a review of the recent epidemiological evidence

PubMed Central

Kogevinas, M.; Sala, M.; Boffetta, P.; Kazerouni, N.; Kromhout, H.; Hoar-Zahm, S.

1998-01-01

OBJECTIVES: To examine the recent epidemiological evidence on cancer risk among workers in the rubber industry. METHODS: Epidemiological studies published after the last detailed review by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) in 1982 were reviewed. 12 cohort studies in nine countries that examined distinct populations of workers in the rubber industry, seven industry based nested case-control studies, 48 community based case-control studies in 16 countries, and 23 studies based on administrative data that reported risks for employment in the rubber industry were identified. RESULTS: Excess risks of bladder cancer, lung cancer, and leukaemia were found in most studies, with risks above 1.5 in about half of the studies. A moderate excess risk for laryngeal cancer was consistent across studies. Excess risks were found in a few studies for cancers of the oesophagus, stomach, colon, liver, pancreas, skin, prostate, kidney, brain, and thyroid, and for malignant lymphoma and multiple myeloma, but overall results were not consistent for these neoplasms. CONCLUSIONS: Magnitude of the observed risks varied considerably between studies, but overall the findings indicate the presence of a widespread moderate increased cancer risk among rubber workers. The most consistent results were for bladder, laryngeal, and lung cancer and for leukaemia. Excess risks were also found for other neoplasms but an evaluation of the consistency of the findings is difficult because of the possible selective reporting of results. Recent studies do not provide information associating specific exposures with cancer risk. The preventive measures taken in the rubber industry in recent years may decrease risks, but this has not been documented yet in epidemiological studies.   PMID:9536156

12 CFR 324.152 - Simple risk weight approach (SRWA).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... (that is, between zero and -1), then E equals the absolute value of RVC. If RVC is negative and less... the lowest applicable risk weight in this section. (1) Zero percent risk weight equity exposures. An....131(d)(2) is assigned a zero percent risk weight. (2) 20 percent risk weight equity exposures. An...

BCRA 2.0 R Package

Cancer.gov

BCRA is an R package that projects absolute risk of invasive breast cancer according to NCI’s Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (BCRAT) algorithm for specified race/ethnic groups and age intervals.

A high-performance liquid chromatography-electronic circular dichroism online method for assessing the absolute enantiomeric excess and conversion ratio of asymmetric reactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xiang; Wang, Mingchao; Li, Li; Yin, Dali

2017-03-01

Asymmetric reactions often need to be evaluated during the synthesis of chiral compounds. However, traditional evaluation methods require the isolation of the individual enantiomer, which is tedious and time-consuming. Thus, it is desirable to develop simple, practical online detection methods. We developed a method based on high-performance liquid chromatography-electronic circular dichroism (HPLC-ECD) that simultaneously analyzes the material conversion ratio and absolute optical purity of each enantiomer. In particular, only a reverse-phase C18 column instead of a chiral column is required in our method because the ECD measurement provides a g-factor that describes the ratio of each enantiomer in the mixtures. We used our method to analyze the asymmetric hydrosilylation of β-enamino esters, and we discussed the advantage, feasibility, and effectiveness of this new methodology.

Rhodium-Catalyzed Synthesis of Chiral Spiro-9-silabifluorenes by Dehydrogenative Silylation: Mechanistic Insights into the Construction of Tetraorganosilicon Stereocenters.

PubMed

Murai, Masahito; Takeuchi, Yutaro; Yamauchi, Kanae; Kuninobu, Yoichiro; Takai, Kazuhiko

2016-04-18

Mechanistic insight into the construction of quaternary silicon chiral centers by rhodium-catalyzed synthesis of spiro-9-silabifluorenes through dehydrogenative silylation is reported. The C2 -symmetric bisphosphine ligand, BINAP, was effective in controlling enantioselectivity, and axially chiral spiro-9-silabifluorenes were obtained in excellent yields with high enantiomeric excess. Monitoring of the reaction revealed the presence of a monohydrosilane intermediate as a mixture of two constitutional isomers. The reaction proceeded through two consecutive dehydrogenative silylations, and the absolute configuration was determined in the first silylative cyclization. Competitive reactions with electron-rich and electron-deficient dihydrosilanes indicated that the rate of silylative cyclization increased with decreasing electron density on the silicon atom of the starting dihydrosilane. Further investigation disclosed a rare interconversion between the two constitutional isomers of the monohydrosilane intermediate with retention of the absolute configuration. © 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Achilles: A Homeric hero enamoured with the absolute.

PubMed

Evzonas, Nicolas

2017-07-21

This article explores through a psychoanalytical lens the character of Achilles in Homer's Iliad, the matrix behind the Western conception of heroism. The contribution reveals the psychological link binding the words and acts of the most valiant of warriors in Antiquity, which is situated in myth and termed "the Eros of the absolute." The paroxystic ideality underlying the aforementioned myth, which is rooted in the anthropological need to believe, is at the origin of Achilles' legendary μῆνις, that is, the flood of rage triggered by contests for supremacy, aggravated by the loss of his war comrade, aroused by the drama of aging and death, and then transfigured through song and memory. The main claim of the author is that Iliad, despite its seeming lack of attention to interiority, is launched by the archetypal emotion of wrath and owes its appeal to its hero's embrace of heroic idealism in an excessive, radical and absolute way that results in a captivating narcissism and sadomasochistic antithesis of ideality. This argument leads to the conclusion that Homer is the Father of the "primitive horde" of affects. Copyright © 2017 Institute of Psychoanalysis.

Residing in economically distressed rural Appalachia is independently associated with excess body weight in college students.

PubMed

Abshire, Demetrius A; Lennie, Terry A; Mudd-Martin, Gia T; Moser, Debra K

2017-01-01

The prevalence of obesity is greater among adults living in rural compared to urban areas of the USA. Greater obesity risk among rural adults persists after adjusting for obesity-related behaviors and sociodemographic factors. With the rural-urban obesity disparity greatest among younger adults, it is important to examine the complexity of factors that may increase the risk for excess body weight in this population so that effective preventive interventions can be implemented. College students residing in economically deprived rural areas such as rural Appalachia may be particularly at risk for excess body weight from exposure to both rural and college obesogenic environments. The purpose of this study was to determine if living in economically distressed rural Appalachia is independently associated with excess body weight among college students. College students aged 18-25 years who were lifetime residents of either rural Eastern Appalachian Kentucky (n=55) or urban Central Kentucky (n=54) participated in this cross-sectional study. Students completed questionnaires on sociodemographics, depressive symptoms, and health behaviors including smoking, fruit and vegetable intake, and physical activity. Height and weight were obtained during a brief health examination to calculate body-mass index (BMI). Excess body weight was defined as being overweight or obese with a BMI of 25 kg/m2 or greater. Binary logistic regression was used to determine if living in economically distressed rural Appalachia was independently associated with excess body weight. The prevalence of excess body weight was higher in the rural Appalachian group than the urban group (50% vs 24%, p0.001). Depressive symptom scores and smoking prevalence were also greater in the rural Appalachian group. There were no differences in fruit and vegetable intake and vigorous physical activity between the groups. Residing in economically distressed rural Appalachia was associated with more than a six-fold increased risk of overweight or obesity, controlling for sociodemographics, depressive symptoms, and health behaviors (odds ratio=6.36, 95%CI=1.97-20.48, p=0.002). Living in economically distressed rural Appalachia was associated with excess body weight in college students independent of sociodemographic factors, depressive symptoms, and obesity-related behaviors. Further research is needed to determine other characteristics of this region that are associated with excess body weight so that effective programs to reduce obesity risk can be implemented.

The Discipline of Asset Allocation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Petzel, Todd E.

2000-01-01

Discussion of asset allocation for college/university endowment funds focuses on three levels of risk: (1) the absolute risk of the portfolio (usually leading to asset diversification); (2) the benchmark risk (usually comparison with peer institutions; and (3) personal career risk (which may incline managers toward maximizing short-term returns,…

A Controlled Intervention to Promote a Healthy Body Image, Reduce Eating Disorder Risk and Prevent Excessive Exercise among Trainee Health Education and Physical Education Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yager, Zali; O'Dea, Jennifer

2010-01-01

This study examined the impact of two interventions on body image, eating disorder risk and excessive exercise among 170 (65% female) trainee health education and physical education (HE & PE) teachers of mean (standard deviation) age 21.6 (2.3) who were considered an "at-risk" population for poor body image and eating disorders. In the first year…

COOL AMI EU pilot trial: a multicentre, prospective, randomised controlled trial to assess cooling as an adjunctive therapy to percutaneous intervention in patients with acute myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Noc, Marko; Erlinge, David; Neskovic, Aleksandar N; Kafedzic, Srdjan; Merkely, Béla; Zima, Endre; Fister, Misa; Petrović, Milovan; Čanković, Milenko; Veress, Gábor; Laanmets, Peep; Pern, Teele; Vukcevic, Vladan; Dedovic, Vladimir; Średniawa, Beata; Świątkowski, Andrzej; Keeble, Thomas R; Davies, John R; Warenits, Alexandra-Maria; Olivecrona, Göran; Peruga, Jan Zbigniew; Ciszewski, Michal; Horvath, Ivan; Edes, Istvan; Nagy, Gergely Gyorgy; Aradi, Daniel; Holzer, Michael

2017-08-04

We aimed to investigate the rapid induction of therapeutic hypothermia using the ZOLL Proteus Intravascular Temperature Management System in patients with anterior ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) without cardiac arrest. A total of 50 patients were randomised; 22 patients (88%; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 69-97%) in the hypothermia group and 23 patients (92%; 95% CI: 74-99) in the control group completed cardiac magnetic resonance imaging at four to six days and 30-day follow-up. Intravascular temperature at coronary guidewire crossing after 20.5 minutes of endovascular cooling decreased to 33.6°C (range 31.9-35.5°C). There was a 17-minute (95% CI: 4.6-29.8 min) cooling-related delay to reperfusion. In "per protocol" analysis, median infarct size/left ventricular mass was 16.7% in the hypothermia group versus 23.8% in the control group (absolute reduction 7.1%, relative reduction 30%; p=0.31) and median left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) was 42% in the hypothermia group and 40% in the control group (absolute reduction 2.4%, relative reduction 6%; p=0.36). Except for self-terminating paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (32% versus 8%; p=0.074), there was no excess of adverse events in the hypothermia group. We rapidly and safely cooled patients with anterior STEMI to 33.6°C at the time of coronary guidewire crossing. This is ≥1.1°C lower than in previous cooling studies. Except for self-terminating atrial fibrillation, there was no excess of adverse events and no clinically important cooling-related delay to reperfusion. A statistically non-significant numerical 7.1% absolute and 30% relative reduction in infarct size warrants a pivotal trial powered for efficacy.

Azacitidine With or Without Lenalidomide or Vorinostat in Treating Patients With Higher-Risk Myelodysplastic Syndromes or Chronic Myelomonocytic Leukemia

ClinicalTrials.gov

2018-06-01

Chronic Myelomonocytic Leukemia; Chronic Myelomonocytic Leukemia-1; Chronic Myelomonocytic Leukemia-2; Myelodysplastic Syndrome; Myelodysplastic Syndrome With Excess Blasts; Myelodysplastic Syndrome With Excess Blasts-1; Myelodysplastic Syndrome With Excess Blasts-2; Previously Treated Myelodysplastic Syndrome

Exposure to prescription opioid analgesics in utero and risk of neonatal abstinence syndrome: population based cohort study.

PubMed

Desai, Rishi J; Huybrechts, Krista F; Hernandez-Diaz, Sonia; Mogun, Helen; Patorno, Elisabetta; Kaltenbach, Karol; Kerzner, Leslie S; Bateman, Brian T

2015-05-14

To provide absolute and relative risk estimates of neonatal abstinence syndrome (NAS) based on duration and timing of prescription opioid use during pregnancy in the presence or absence of additional NAS risk factors of history of opioid misuse or dependence, misuse of other substances, non-opioid psychotropic drug use, and smoking. Observational cohort study. Medicaid data from 46 US states. Pregnant women filling at least one prescription for an opioid analgesic at any time during pregnancy for whom opioid exposure characteristics including duration of therapy: short term (<30 days) or long term (≥ 30 days); timing of use: early use (only in the first two trimesters) or late use (extending into the third trimester); and cumulative dose (in morphine equivalent milligrams) were assessed. Diagnosis of NAS in liveborn infants. 1705 cases of NAS were identified among 290,605 pregnant women filling opioid prescriptions, corresponding to an absolute risk of 5.9 per 1000 deliveries (95% confidence interval 5.6 to 6.2). Long term opioid use during pregnancy resulted in higher absolute risk of NAS per 1000 deliveries in the presence of additional risk factors of known opioid misuse (220.2 (200.8 to 241.0)), alcohol or other drug misuse (30.8 (26.1 to 36.0)), exposure to other psychotropic medications (13.1 (10.6 to 16.1)), and smoking (6.6 (4.3 to 9.6)) than in the absence of any of these risk factors (4.2 (3.3 to 5.4)). The corresponding risk estimates for short term use were 192.0 (175.8 to 209.3), 7.0 (6.0 to 8.2), 2.0 (1.5 to 2.6), 1.5 (1.0 to 2.0), and 0.7 (0.6 to 0.8) per 1000 deliveries, respectively. In propensity score matched analyses, long term prescription opioid use compared with short term use and late use compared with early use in pregnancy demonstrated greater risk of NAS (risk ratios 2.05 (95% confidence interval 1.81 to 2.33) and 1.24 (1.12 to 1.38), respectively). Use of prescription opioids during pregnancy is associated with a low absolute risk of NAS in the absence of additional risk factors. Long term use compared with short term use and late use compared with early use of prescription opioids are associated with increased NAS risk independent of additional risk factors. © Desai et al 2015.

Reader variability in breast density estimation from full-field digital mammograms: the effect of image postprocessing on relative and absolute measures.

PubMed

Keller, Brad M; Nathan, Diane L; Gavenonis, Sara C; Chen, Jinbo; Conant, Emily F; Kontos, Despina

2013-05-01

Mammographic breast density, a strong risk factor for breast cancer, may be measured as either a relative percentage of dense (ie, radiopaque) breast tissue or as an absolute area from either raw (ie, "for processing") or vendor postprocessed (ie, "for presentation") digital mammograms. Given the increasing interest in the incorporation of mammographic density in breast cancer risk assessment, the purpose of this study is to determine the inherent reader variability in breast density assessment from raw and vendor-processed digital mammograms, because inconsistent estimates could to lead to misclassification of an individual woman's risk for breast cancer. Bilateral, mediolateral-oblique view, raw, and processed digital mammograms of 81 women were retrospectively collected for this study (N = 324 images). Mammographic percent density and absolute dense tissue area estimates for each image were obtained from two radiologists using a validated, interactive software tool. The variability of interreader agreement was not found to be affected by the image presentation style (ie, raw or processed, F-test: P > .5). Interreader estimates of relative and absolute breast density are strongly correlated (Pearson r > 0.84, P < .001) but systematically different (t-test, P < .001) between the two readers. Our results show that mammographic density may be assessed with equal reliability from either raw or vendor postprocessed images. Furthermore, our results suggest that the primary source of density variability comes from the subjectivity of the individual reader in assessing the absolute amount of dense tissue present in the breast, indicating the need to use standardized tools to mitigate this effect. Copyright © 2013 AUR. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

National cohort study of absolute risk and age-specific incidence of multiple adverse outcomes between adolescence and early middle age.

PubMed

Mok, Pearl L H; Antonsen, Sussie; Pedersen, Carsten Bøcker; Appleby, Louis; Shaw, Jenny; Webb, Roger T

2015-09-19

Psychiatric illness, substance misuse, suicidality, criminality and premature death represent major public health challenges that afflict a sizeable proportion of young people. However, studies of multiple adverse outcomes in the same cohort at risk are rare. In a national Danish cohort we estimated sex- and age-specific incidence rates and absolute risks of these outcomes between adolescence and early middle age. Using interlinked registers, persons born in Denmark 1966-1996 were followed from their 15(th) until 40(th) birthday or December 2011 (N = 2,070,904). We estimated sex- and age-specific incidence rates of nine adverse outcomes, in three main categories: Premature mortality (all-causes, suicide, accident); Psychiatric morbidity (any mental illness diagnosis, suicide attempt, alcohol or drug misuse disorder); Criminality (violent offending, receiving custodial sentence, driving under influence of alcohol or drugs). Cumulative incidences were also calculated using competing risk survival analyses. For cohort members alive on their 15(th) birthday, the absolute risks of dying by age 40 were 1.99 % for males [95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.95-2.03 %] and 0.85 % for females (95 % CI 0.83-0.88 %). The risks of substance misuse and criminality were also much higher for males, especially younger males, than for females. Specifically, the risk of a first conviction for a violent offence was highest amongst males aged below 20. Females, however, were more likely than males to have a hospital-treated psychiatric disorder. By age 40, 13.25 % of females (95 % CI 13.16-13.33 %) and 9.98 % of males (95 % CI 9.91-10.06 %) had been treated. Women aged below 25 were also more likely than men to first attempt suicide, but this pattern was reversed beyond this age. The greatest gender differentials in incidence rates were in criminality outcomes. This is the first comprehensive assessment of the incidence rates and absolute risks of these multiple adverse outcomes. Approximately 1 in 50 males and 1 in 120 females who are alive on their 15th birthday will die by age 40. By examining the same cohort at risk, we compared risks for multiple outcomes without differential inter-cohort biases. These epidemiological profiles will inform further research into the pathways leading to these adverse events and future preventive strategies.

Perceptions of health risks of cigarette smoking: A new measure reveals widespread misunderstanding

PubMed Central

Krosnick, Jon A.; Malhotra, Neil; Bruera, Eduardo F.; Chang, LinChiat; Pasek, Josh; Thomas, Randall K.

2017-01-01

Most Americans recognize that smoking causes serious diseases, yet many Americans continue to smoke. One possible explanation for this paradox is that perhaps Americans do not accurately perceive the extent to which smoking increases the probability of adverse health outcomes. This paper examines the accuracy of Americans’ perceptions of the absolute risk, attributable risk, and relative risk of lung cancer, and assesses which of these beliefs drive Americans’ smoking behavior. Using data from three national surveys, statistical analyses were performed by comparing means, medians, and distributions, and by employing Generalized Additive Models. Perceptions of relative risk were associated as expected with smoking onset and smoking cessation, whereas perceptions of absolute risk and attributable risk were not. Additionally, the relation of relative risk with smoking status was stronger among people who held their risk perceptions with more certainty. Most current smokers, former smokers, and never-smokers considerably underestimated the relative risk of smoking. If, as this paper suggests, people naturally think about the health consequences of smoking in terms of relative risk, smoking rates might be reduced if public understanding of the relative risks of smoking were more accurate and people held those beliefs with more confidence. PMID:28806420

iCARE

Cancer.gov

The iCARE R Package allows researchers to quickly build models for absolute risk, and apply them to estimate an individual's risk of developing disease during a specifed time interval, based on a set of user defined input parameters.

Perceived risk of tamoxifen side effects: a study of the use of absolute frequencies or frequency bands, with or without verbal descriptors.

PubMed

Knapp, Peter; Gardner, Peter H; Raynor, David K; Woolf, Elizabeth; McMillan, Brian

2010-05-01

To investigate the effectiveness of presenting medicine side effect risk information in different forms, including that proposed by UK guidelines [[1] Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency. Always read the leaflet-Getting the best information with every medicine. (Report of the Committee on Safety of Medicines Working Group on Patient Information). London: The Stationery Office, 2005.]. 134 Cancer Research UK (CRUK) website users were recruited via a 'pop-up'. Using a 2x2 factorial design, participants were randomly allocated to one of four conditions and asked to: imagine they had to take tamoxifen, estimate the risks of 4 side effects, and indicate a presentation mode preference. Those presented with absolute frequencies demonstrated greater accuracy in estimating 2 of 4 side effects, and of any side effect occurring, than those presented with frequency bands. Those presented with combined descriptors were more accurate at estimating the risk of pulmonary embolism than those presented with numeric descriptors only. Absolute frequencies outperform frequency bands when presenting side effect risk information. However, presenting such exact frequencies for every side effect may be much less digestible than all side effects listed under 5 frequency bands. Combined numerical and verbal descriptors may be better than numeric only descriptors when describing infrequent side effects. Information about side effects should be presented in ways that patients prefer, and which result in most accurate risk estimates. Copyright (c) 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Physical, clinical, and psychosocial parameters of adolescents with different degrees of excess weight☆

PubMed Central

Antonini, Vanessa Drieli Seron; da Silva, Danilo Fernandes; Bianchini, Josiane Aparecida Alves; Lopera, Carlos Andres; Moreira, Amanda Caroline Teles; Locateli, João Carlos; Nardo, Nelson

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To compare body composition, hemodynamic parameters, health-related physical fitness, and health-related quality of life of adolescents with anthropometric diagnosis of overweight, obesity, and severe obesity. METHODS: 220 adolescents with excess body weight were enrolled. They were beginners in a intervention program that included patients based on age, availability, presence of excess body weight, place of residence, and agreement to participate in the study . This study collected anthropometric and hemodynamic variables, health-related physical fitness, and health-related quality of life of the adolescents. To compare the three groups according to nutritional status, parametric and non-parametric tests were applied. Significance level was set at p<0.05. RESULTS: There was no significant difference in resting heart rate, health-related physical fitness, relative body fat, absolute and relative lean mass, and health-related quality of life between overweight, obese, and severely obese adolescents (p>0.05). Body weight, body mass index, waist and hip circumference, and systolic blood pressure increased as degree of excess weightincreased (p<0.05). Dyastolic blood pressure of the severe obesity group was higher than the other groups (p<0.05). There was an association between the degree of excess weight and the prevalence of altered blood pressure (overweight: 12.1%; obesity: 28.1%; severe obesity: 45.5%; p<0.001). The results were similar when genders were analyzed separately. CONCLUSION: Results suggest that overweight adolescents presented similar results compared to obese and severely obese adolescents in most of the parameters analyzed. PMID:25510998

Risk Factor Effects and Total Mortality in Older Japanese Men in Japan and Hawaii

PubMed Central

Abbott, Robert D.; Ueshima, Hirotsugu; Hozawa, Atsushi; Okamura, Tomonori; Kadowaki, Takashi; Miura, Katsuyuki; Okuda, Nagako; Nakamura, Yasuyuki; Okayama, Akira; Kita, Yoshikuni; Rodriguez, Beatriz L.; Yano, Katsuhiko; Curb, J. David

2017-01-01

Purpose To identify factors related to total mortality in older Japanese men in Japan and Hawaii. Methods Baseline data were collected from 1980 to 1982 in 1,379 men in Hawaii and 954 men in Japan. Ages ranged from 61 to 81 years with mortality follow-up over a 19 year period. Results Compared to Japan, men in Hawaii had a 2-fold excess of diabetes and a 4-fold excess of prevalent coronary heart disease (p<0.001). Total cholesterol and body mass index were also higher in Hawaii (p<0.001). In contrast, men in Japan had higher systolic blood pressure and were nearly 3-times more likely to smoke cigarettes (p<0.001). Although each cohort had elements of a poor risk factor profile, there was a 1.4-fold excess in the risk of death in Japan (49.4 vs. 36.2/1,000 person-years, p<0.001). While mortality was similar after risk factor adjustment, only blood pressure and cigarette smoking accounted for the higher risk of death in Japan. Conclusions Cigarette smoking and hypertension explain much of the excess mortality in Japan versus Hawaii. In this comparison of genetically similar cohorts, evidence further suggests that Japanese in Japan are equally susceptible to develop the same adverse risk factor conditions that exist in Hawaii. PMID:19041590

Assessment of knowledge of skin cancer prevention and its relation with sun exposure and photo protection amongst gym academy members on the south of Santa Catarina, Brazil.

PubMed

Fabris, Mariana Rocha; Durães, Edson Souza Machado; Martignago, Beatriz Castellar de Faria; Blanco, Luiz Felipe de Oliveira; Fabris, Thiago Rocha

2012-01-01

Skin cancer is the most frequent neoplasia in several parts of the world and also in Brazil. There is evidence of an increase in morbidity and mortality from skin cancer. Although the incidence of skin cancer is increasing, it is estimated that 45% of all preventable cancers worldwide are skin neoplasias. Several studies have emphasized the need for campaigns to encourage sun protection. To assess the knowledge about skin cancer prevention and its association with sun exposure and photo protection in gym members. We conducted a cross-sectional, descriptive and quantitative study during January to July 2009, including gym members of both sexes in the city of Criciuma. A self-administered questionnaire was used. The statistical analysis was conducted in a descriptive way in regards to the absolute and relative frequencies of the variables under study. Of the 317 questionnaires studied, 62% were from women and 38% from men. Skin types II and III predominated, and the average age was 27.6 years. 94.3% of the participants reported that they had heard about the risks of sun exposure, mostly in terms of skin cancer risk (80.8%). Most participants, especially women, reported some form of sun protective measure. The population studied, similar to that in other regions of Brazil and the world, is aware of the risks of excessive sun exposure and skin cancer prevention, but has not yet incorporated appropriate sun protection measures into their daily habits.

Debiasing comparative optimism and increasing worry for health outcomes.

PubMed

Rose, Jason P

2012-11-01

Comparative optimism - feeling at less personal risk for negative outcomes than one's peers - has been linked to reduced prevention efforts. This study examined a novel debiasing technique aimed at simultaneously reducing both indirectly and directly measured comparative optimism. Before providing direct comparative estimates, participants provided absolute self and peer estimates in a joint format (same computer screen) or a separate format (different computer screens). Relative to the separate format condition, participants in the joint format condition showed (1) lower comparative optimism in absolute/indirect measures, (2) lower direct comparative optimism, and (3) heightened worry. Implications for risk perception screening are discussed.

N-Terminal Pro-Brain Natriuretic Peptide and Heart Failure Risk Among Individuals With and Without Obesity: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study.

PubMed

Ndumele, Chiadi E; Matsushita, Kunihiro; Sang, Yingying; Lazo, Mariana; Agarwal, Sunil K; Nambi, Vijay; Deswal, Anita; Blumenthal, Roger S; Ballantyne, Christie M; Coresh, Josef; Selvin, Elizabeth

2016-02-16

Obesity is a risk factor for heart failure (HF) but is associated with lower N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) levels. It is unclear whether the prognostic value and implications of NT-proBNP levels for HF risk differ across body mass index (BMI) categories. We followed up 12 230 ARIC participants free of prior HF at baseline (visit 2, 1990-1992) with BMI ≥18.5 kg/m(2). We quantified and compared the relative and absolute risk associations of NT-proBNP with incident HF across BMI categories. There were 1861 HF events during a median 20.6 years of follow-up. Despite increased HF risk in obesity, a weak inverse association was seen between baseline BMI and NT-proBNP levels (r=-0.10). Nevertheless, higher baseline NT-proBNP was associated with increased HF risk in all BMI categories. NT-proBNP improved HF risk prediction overall, even among those with severe obesity (BMI ≥35 kg/m(2); improvement in C statistic, 0.032; 95% confidence interval, 0.011-0.053). However, given the higher HF rates among those with obesity, at each NT-proBNP level, higher BMI was associated with greater absolute HF risk. Indeed, among those with NT-proBNP of 100 to <200 pg/mL, the average 10-year HF risk was <5% among normal-weight individuals but >10% among the severely obese. Despite its inverse relationship with BMI, NT-proBNP provides significant prognostic information on the risk of developing HF even among individuals with obesity. Given the higher baseline HF risk among persons with obesity, even slight elevations in NT-proBNP may have implications for increased absolute HF risk in this population. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Clearing margin system in the futures markets—Applying the value-at-risk model to Taiwanese data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiu, Chien-Liang; Chiang, Shu-Mei; Hung, Jui-Cheng; Chen, Yu-Lung

2006-07-01

This article sets out to investigate if the TAIFEX has adequate clearing margin adjustment system via unconditional coverage, conditional coverage test and mean relative scaled bias to assess the performance of three value-at-risk (VaR) models (i.e., the TAIFEX, RiskMetrics and GARCH-t). For the same model, original and absolute returns are compared to explore which can accurately capture the true risk. For the same return, daily and tiered adjustment methods are examined to evaluate which corresponds to risk best. The results indicate that the clearing margin adjustment of the TAIFEX cannot reflect true risks. The adjustment rules, including the use of absolute return and tiered adjustment of the clearing margin, have distorted VaR-based margin requirements. Besides, the results suggest that the TAIFEX should use original return to compute VaR and daily adjustment system to set clearing margin. This approach would improve the funds operation efficiency and the liquidity of the futures markets.

Quantification of excess risk for diabetes for those born in times of hunger, in an entire population of a nation, across a century.

PubMed

Thurner, Stefan; Klimek, Peter; Szell, Michael; Duftschmid, Georg; Endel, Gottfried; Kautzky-Willer, Alexandra; Kasper, David C

2013-03-19

Based on a unique dataset comprising all 325,000 Austrian patients that were under pharmaceutical treatment for diabetes during 2006 and 2007, we measured the excess risk of developing diabetes triggered by undernourishment in early life. We studied the percentage of all diabetes patients in the total population specifically for each year of birth, from 1917 to 2007. We found a massive excess risk of diabetes in people born during the times of the three major famines and immediately after, which occurred in Austria in the 20th century: 1918-1919, 1938, and 1946-1947. Depending on the region, there was an up to 40% higher chance of having diabetes when born in 1919-1921, compared with 1918 or 1922, where age-specific typical diabetes ratios are observed. The excess risk for diabetes was practically absent in those provinces of Austria that were less affected by the famines. We show that diabetes rates exhibit nontrivial, age-specific sex differences, and correlate with the economic wealth of the region. Our results might be of relevance for establishing higher awareness in the health system for those born in high-risk years, and underline the importance of ensuring sufficient nutrition in prenatal and early stages of life.

Influence of Framing and Graphic Format on Comprehension of Risk Information among American Indian Tribal College Students

PubMed Central

Sprague, Debra; Russo, Joan E.; LaVallie, Donna L.; Buchwald, Dedra S.

2012-01-01

We evaluated methods for presenting risk information by administering 6 versions of an anonymous survey to 489 American Indian tribal college students. All surveys presented identical numeric information, but framing varied. Half expressed prevention benefits as relative risk reduction, half as absolute risk reduction. One-third of surveys used text to describe prevention benefits; 1/3 used text plus bar graph; 1/3 used text plus modified bar graph incorporating a culturally tailored image. The odds ratio (OR) for correct risk interpretation for absolute risk framing vs. relative risk framing was 1.40 (95% CI=1.01, 1.93). The OR for correct interpretation of text plus bar graph vs. text only was 2.16 (95% CI=1.46, 3.19); OR for text plus culturally tailored bar graph vs. text only was 1.72 (95% CI=1.14, 2.60). Risk information including a bar graph was better understood than text-only information; a culturally tailored graph was no more effective than a standard graph. PMID:22544538

A Review: Radiographic Iodinated Contrast Media-Induced Thyroid Dysfunction

PubMed Central

Leung, Angela M.; Braverman, Lewis E.; Brent, Gregory A.; Pearce, Elizabeth N.

2015-01-01

Context: Thyroid hormone production is dependent on adequate iodine intake. Excess iodine is generally well-tolerated, but thyroid dysfunction can occur in susceptible individuals after excess iodine exposure. Radiological iodinated contrast media represent an increasingly common source of excess iodine. Objective: This review will discuss the thyroidal response after acute exposure to excess iodine; contrast iodine-induced thyroid dysfunction; risks of iodine-induced thyroid dysfunction in vulnerable populations, such as the fetus, neonate, and patients with impaired renal function; and recommendations for the assessment and treatment of contrast iodine-induced thyroid dysfunction. Methods: Data for this review were identified by searching PubMed, Google Scholar, and references from relevant articles from 1948 to 2014. Conclusions: With the increase in the use of computed tomography scans in the United States, there is increasing risk of contrast-induced thyroid dysfunction. Patients at risk of developing iodine-induced thyroid dysfunction should be closely monitored after receiving iodinated contrast media and should be treated as needed. PMID:25375985

Excess mortality in persons with severe mental disorders: a multilevel intervention framework and priorities for clinical practice, policy and research agendas

PubMed Central

Liu, Nancy H.; Daumit, Gail L.; Dua, Tarun; Aquila, Ralph; Charlson, Fiona; Cuijpers, Pim; Druss, Benjamin; Dudek, Kenn; Freeman, Melvyn; Fujii, Chiyo; Gaebel, Wolfgang; Hegerl, Ulrich; Levav, Itzhak; Munk Laursen, Thomas; Ma, Hong; Maj, Mario; Elena Medina‐Mora, Maria; Nordentoft, Merete; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj; Pratt, Karen; Prince, Martin; Rangaswamy, Thara; Shiers, David; Susser, Ezra; Thornicroft, Graham; Wahlbeck, Kristian; Fekadu Wassie, Abe; Whiteford, Harvey; Saxena, Shekhar

2017-01-01

Excess mortality in persons with severe mental disorders (SMD) is a major public health challenge that warrants action. The number and scope of truly tested interventions in this area remain limited, and strategies for implementation and scaling up of programmes with a strong evidence base are scarce. Furthermore, the majority of available interventions focus on a single or an otherwise limited number of risk factors. Here we present a multilevel model highlighting risk factors for excess mortality in persons with SMD at the individual, health system and socio‐environmental levels. Informed by that model, we describe a comprehensive framework that may be useful for designing, implementing and evaluating interventions and programmes to reduce excess mortality in persons with SMD. This framework includes individual‐focused, health system‐focused, and community level and policy‐focused interventions. Incorporating lessons learned from the multilevel model of risk and the comprehensive intervention framework, we identify priorities for clinical practice, policy and research agendas. PMID:28127922

Risk cross sections and their application to risk estimation in the galactic cosmic-ray environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Curtis, S. B.; Nealy, J. E.; Wilson, J. W.; Chatterjee, A. (Principal Investigator)

1995-01-01

Radiation risk cross sections (i.e. risks per particle fluence) are discussed in the context of estimating the risk of radiation-induced cancer on long-term space flights from the galactic cosmic radiation outside the confines of the earth's magnetic field. Such quantities are useful for handling effects not seen after low-LET radiation. Since appropriate cross-section functions for cancer induction for each particle species are not yet available, the conventional quality factor is used as an approximation to obtain numerical results for risks of excess cancer mortality. Risks are obtained for seven of the most radiosensitive organs as determined by the ICRP [stomach, colon, lung, bone marrow (BFO), bladder, esophagus and breast], beneath 10 g/cm2 aluminum shielding at solar minimum. Spectra are obtained for excess relative risk for each cancer per LET interval by calculating the average fluence-LET spectrum for the organ and converting to risk by multiplying by a factor proportional to R gamma L Q(L) before integrating over L, the unrestricted LET. Here R gamma is the risk coefficient for low-LET radiation (excess relative mortality per Sv) for the particular organ in question. The total risks of excess cancer mortality obtained are 1.3 and 1.1% to female and male crew, respectively, for a 1-year exposure at solar minimum. Uncertainties in these values are estimated to range between factors of 4 and 15 and are dominated by the biological uncertainties in the risk coefficients for low-LET radiation and in the LET (or energy) dependence of the risk cross sections (as approximated by the quality factor). The direct substitution of appropriate risk cross sections will eventually circumvent entirely the need to calculate, measure or use absorbed dose, equivalent dose and quality factor for such a high-energy charged-particle environment.

The metabolism of plant sterols is disturbed in postmenopausal women with coronary artery disease.

PubMed

Gylling, Helena; Hallikainen, Maarit; Rajaratnam, Radhakrishnan A; Simonen, Piia; Pihlajamäki, Jussi; Laakso, Markku; Miettinen, Tatu A

2009-03-01

In postmenopausal coronary artery disease (CAD) women, serum plant sterols are elevated. Thus, we investigated further whether serum plant sterols reflect absolute cholesterol metabolism in CAD as in other populations and whether the ABCG5 and ABCG8 genes, associated with plant sterol metabolism, were related to the risk of CAD. In free-living postmenopausal women with (n = 47) and without (n = 62) CAD, serum noncholesterol sterols including plant sterols were analyzed with gas-liquid chromatography, cholesterol absorption with peroral isotopes, absolute cholesterol synthesis with sterol balance technique, and bile acid synthesis with quantitating fecal bile acids. In CAD women, serum plant sterol ratios to cholesterol were 21% to 26% (P < .05) higher than in controls despite similar cholesterol absorption efficiency. Absolute cholesterol and bile acid synthesis were reduced. Only in controls were serum plant sterols related to cholesterol absorption (eg, sitosterol; in controls: r = 0.533, P < .001; in CAD: r = 0.296, P = not significant). However, even in CAD women, serum lathosterol (relative synthesis marker) and lathosterol-cholestanol (relative synthesis-absorption marker) were related to absolute synthesis and absorption percentage (P range from .05 to <.001) similarly to controls. Frequencies of the common polymorphisms of ABCG5 and ABCG8 genes did not differ between coronary and control women. In conclusion, plant sterol metabolism is disturbed in CAD women; so serum plant sterols only tended to reflect absolute cholesterol absorption. Other relative markers of cholesterol metabolism were related to the absolute ones in both groups. ABCG5 and ABCG8 genes were not associated with the risk of CAD.

Discrimination measures for survival outcomes: connection between the AUC and the predictiveness curve.

PubMed

Viallon, Vivian; Latouche, Aurélien

2011-03-01

Finding out biomarkers and building risk scores to predict the occurrence of survival outcomes is a major concern of clinical epidemiology, and so is the evaluation of prognostic models. In this paper, we are concerned with the estimation of the time-dependent AUC--area under the receiver-operating curve--which naturally extends standard AUC to the setting of survival outcomes and enables to evaluate the discriminative power of prognostic models. We establish a simple and useful relation between the predictiveness curve and the time-dependent AUC--AUC(t). This relation confirms that the predictiveness curve is the key concept for evaluating calibration and discrimination of prognostic models. It also highlights that accurate estimates of the conditional absolute risk function should yield accurate estimates for AUC(t). From this observation, we derive several estimators for AUC(t) relying on distinct estimators of the conditional absolute risk function. An empirical study was conducted to compare our estimators with the existing ones and assess the effect of model misspecification--when estimating the conditional absolute risk function--on the AUC(t) estimation. We further illustrate the methodology on the Mayo PBC and the VA lung cancer data sets. Copyright © 2011 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Surgical decompression for space-occupying cerebral infarction: outcomes at 3 years in the randomized HAMLET trial.

PubMed

Geurts, Marjolein; van der Worp, H Bart; Kappelle, L Jaap; Amelink, G Johan; Algra, Ale; Hofmeijer, Jeannette

2013-09-01

We assessed whether the effects of surgical decompression for space-occupying hemispheric infarction, observed at 1 year, are sustained at 3 years. Patients with space-occupying hemispheric infarction, who were enrolled in the Hemicraniectomy After Middle cerebral artery infarction with Life-threatening Edema Trial within 4 days after stroke onset, were followed up at 3 years. Outcome measures included functional outcome (modified Rankin Scale), death, quality of life, and place of residence. Poor functional outcome was defined as modified Rankin Scale >3. Of 64 included patients, 32 were randomized to decompressive surgery and 32 to best medical treatment. Just as at 1 year, surgery had no effect on the risk of poor functional outcome at 3 years (absolute risk reduction, 1%; 95% confidence interval, -21 to 22), but it reduced case fatality (absolute risk reduction, 37%; 95% confidence interval, 14-60). Sixteen surgically treated patients and 8 controls lived at home (absolute risk reduction, 27%; 95% confidence interval, 4-50). Quality of life improved between 1 and 3 years in patients treated with surgery. In patients with space-occupying hemispheric infarction, the effects of decompressive surgery on case fatality and functional outcome observed at 1 year are sustained at 3 years. http://www.controlled-trials.com. Unique identifier: ISRCTN94237756.

Effect of intensive structured care on individual blood pressure targets in primary care: multicentre randomised controlled trial.

PubMed

Stewart, Simon; Carrington, Melinda J; Swemmer, Carla H; Anderson, Craig; Kurstjens, Nicol P; Amerena, John; Brown, Alex; Burrell, Louise M; de Looze, Ferdinandus J; Harris, Mark; Hung, Joseph; Krum, Henry; Nelson, Mark; Schlaich, Markus; Stocks, Nigel P; Jennings, Garry L

2012-11-20

To determine the effectiveness of intensive structured care to optimise blood pressure control based on individual absolute risk targets in primary care. Pragmatic multicentre randomised controlled trial. General practices throughout Australia, except Northern Territory, 2009-11. Of 2185 patients from 119 general practices who were eligible for drug treatment for hypertension according to national guidelines 416 (19.0%) achieved their individual blood pressure target during a 28 day run-in period of monotherapy. After exclusions, 1562 participants not at target blood pressure (systolic 150 (SD 17) mm Hg, diastolic 88 (SD 11) mm Hg) were randomised (1:2 ratio) to usual care (n=524) or the intervention (n=1038). Computer assisted clinical profiling and risk target setting (all participants) with intensified follow-up and stepwise drug titration (initial angiotensin receptor blocker monotherapy or two forms of combination therapy using angiotensin receptor blockers) for those randomised to the intervention. The control group received usual care. The primary outcome was individual blood pressure target achieved at 26 weeks. Secondary outcomes were change in mean sitting systolic and diastolic blood pressure, absolute risk for cardiovascular disease within five years based on the Framingham risk score, and proportion and rate of adverse events. On an intention to treat basis, there was an 8.8% absolute difference in individual blood pressure target achieved at 26 weeks in favour of the intervention group compared with usual care group (358/988 (36.2%) v 138/504 (27.4%)): adjusted relative risk 1.28 (95% confidence interval 1.10 to 1.49, P=0.0013). There was also a 9.5% absolute difference in favour of the intervention group for achieving the classic blood pressure target of ≤ 140/90 mm Hg (627/988 (63.5%) v 272/504 (54.0%)): adjusted relative risk 1.18 (1.07 to 1.29, P<0.001). The intervention group achieved a mean adjusted reduction in systolic blood pressure of 13.2 mm Hg (95% confidence interval -12.3 to -14.2 mm Hg) and diastolic blood pressure of 7.7 mm Hg (-7.1 to -8.3 mm Hg) v 10.1 mm Hg (-8.8 to 11.3 mm Hg) and 5.5 mm Hg (-4.7 to -6.2 mm Hg) in the usual care group (P<0.001). Among 1141 participants in whom five year absolute cardiovascular risk scores were calculated from baseline to the 26 week follow-up, the reduction in risk scores was greater in the intervention group than usual care group (14.7% (SD 9.3%) to 10.9% (SD 8.0%); difference -3.7% (SD 4.5%) and 15.0% (SD 10.1%) to 12.4% (SD 9.4%); -2.6% (SD 4.5%): adjusted mean difference -1.13% (95% confidence interval -0.69% to -1.63%; P<0.001). Owing to adverse events 82 (7.9%) participants in the intervention group and 10 (1.9%) in the usual care group had their drug treatment modified. In a primary care setting intensive structured care resulted in higher levels of blood pressure control, with clinically lower blood pressure and absolute risk of future cardiovascular events overall and with more people achieving their target blood pressure. An important gap in treatment remains though and applying intensive management and achieving currently advocated risk based blood pressure targets is challenging.

Chiral Tagging of Verbenone with 3-BUTYN-2-OL for Establishing Absolute Configuration and Determining Enantiomeric Excess

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evangelisti, Luca; Mayer, Kevin J.; Holdren, Martin S.; Smart, Taylor; West, Channing; Pate, Brooks; Sedo, Galen; Marshall, Frank E.; Grubbs, G. S., II

2017-06-01

Chiral analysis of a commercial sample of (1S)-(-)-verbenone has been performed using the chiral tag approach. The chirped-pulse Fourier transform microwave spectrum of the verbenone-butynol complex is measured in the 2-8 GHz frequency range. Verbenone is placed in a nozzle reservoir heated to 333K (about 1 Torr vapor pressure). The complex is formed by using a carrier gas of neon with approximately 0.1% butynol. The expansion pressure is about 2 atm. A measurement using racemic butynol is performed to identify isomers of both diastereomer complexes. Quantum chemistry calculations using the B3LYP-D3BJ method with the def2TZVP basis set provided estimated spectroscopic constants for the homochiral and heterochiral complexes. This analysis included 8 isomers for each diastereomer. Four rotational spectra are identified for isomers of the homochiral complex and correspond to the four lowest energy isomers from the theoretical study. Three heterochiral complexes are identified and also correspond to the lowest energy isomers from theory. Subsequent measurements were made with enantiopure tag (both (R)-(+)-3-buty-2-nol and (S)-(-)-3-butyn-2-ol) to establish the absolute configuration of verbenone. The sensitivity of the measurement was sufficient to perform ^{13}C-isotopologue analysis of three of the homochiral complexes and two of the heterochiral complexes. These results provide definitive structures of verbenone with correct stereochemistry. The commercial sample has relatively low enantiomeric excess with the certificate of analysis reporting an EE of 53.6%. Using the intensities of assigned transitions of the chiral tag complexes, the enantiomeric excess was determined from the broadband rotational spectrum through the ratio of the intensities of pairs of transitions. A total of 2617 pairs of transitions were analyzed. The average EE was found to be 53.6% with a standard deviation of 2%.

Occupation, exposure to chemicals, sensitizing agents, and risk of multiple myeloma in Sweden.

PubMed

Lope, Virginia; Pérez-Gómez, Beatriz; Aragonés, Nuria; López-Abente, Gonzalo; Gustavsson, Per; Plato, Nils; Zock, Jan-Paul; Pollán, Marina

2008-11-01

This study sought to identify occupations with high incidence of multiple myeloma and to investigate possible excess risk associated with occupational exposure to chemicals and sensitizing agents in Sweden. A historical cohort of 2,992,166 workers was followed up (1971--1989) through record linkage with the National Cancer and Death Registries. For each job category, age and period standardized incidence ratios and age and period adjusted relative risks of multiple myeloma were calculated using Poisson models. Exposure to chemicals and to sensitizing agents was also assessed using two job-exposure matrices. Men and women were analyzed separately. During follow-up, 3,127 and 1,282 myelomas were diagnosed in men and women, respectively. In men, excess risk was detected among working proprietors, agricultural, horticultural and forestry enterprisers, bakers and pastry cooks, dental technicians, stone cutters/carvers, and prison/reformatory officials. In women, this excess was observed among attendants in psychiatric care, metal workers, bakers and pastry cooks, and paper/paperboard product workers. Workers, particularly bakers and pastry cooks, exposed to high molecular weight sensitizing agents registered an excess risk of over 40% across the sexes. Occasional, although intense, exposure to pesticides was also associated with risk of myeloma in our cohort. Our study supports a possible etiologic role for farming and use of pesticides in myeloma risk. The high incidence found in both female and male bakers and pastry cooks has not been described previously. Further research is required to assess the influence of high molecular weight sensitizing agents on risk of multiple myeloma.

Cancer risk in 680 000 people exposed to computed tomography scans in childhood or adolescence: data linkage study of 11 million Australians

PubMed Central

Forsythe, Anna V; Brady, Zoe; Butler, Martin W; Goergen, Stacy K; Byrnes, Graham B; Giles, Graham G; Wallace, Anthony B; Anderson, Philip R; Guiver, Tenniel A; McGale, Paul; Cain, Timothy M; Dowty, James G; Bickerstaffe, Adrian C; Darby, Sarah C

2013-01-01

Objective To assess the cancer risk in children and adolescents following exposure to low dose ionising radiation from diagnostic computed tomography (CT) scans. Design Population based, cohort, data linkage study in Australia. Cohort members 10.9 million people identified from Australian Medicare records, aged 0-19 years on 1 January 1985 or born between 1 January 1985 and 31 December 2005; all exposures to CT scans funded by Medicare during 1985-2005 were identified for this cohort. Cancers diagnosed in cohort members up to 31 December 2007 were obtained through linkage to national cancer records. Main outcome Cancer incidence rates in individuals exposed to a CT scan more than one year before any cancer diagnosis, compared with cancer incidence rates in unexposed individuals. Results 60 674 cancers were recorded, including 3150 in 680 211 people exposed to a CT scan at least one year before any cancer diagnosis. The mean duration of follow-up after exposure was 9.5 years. Overall cancer incidence was 24% greater for exposed than for unexposed people, after accounting for age, sex, and year of birth (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.24 (95% confidence interval 1.20 to 1.29); P<0.001). We saw a dose-response relation, and the IRR increased by 0.16 (0.13 to 0.19) for each additional CT scan. The IRR was greater after exposure at younger ages (P<0.001 for trend). At 1-4, 5-9, 10-14, and 15 or more years since first exposure, IRRs were 1.35 (1.25 to 1.45), 1.25 (1.17 to 1.34), 1.14 (1.06 to 1.22), and 1.24 (1.14 to 1.34), respectively. The IRR increased significantly for many types of solid cancer (digestive organs, melanoma, soft tissue, female genital, urinary tract, brain, and thyroid); leukaemia, myelodysplasia, and some other lymphoid cancers. There was an excess of 608 cancers in people exposed to CT scans (147 brain, 356 other solid, 48 leukaemia or myelodysplasia, and 57 other lymphoid). The absolute excess incidence rate for all cancers combined was 9.38 per 100 000 person years at risk, as of 31 December 2007. The average effective radiation dose per scan was estimated as 4.5 mSv. Conclusions The increased incidence of cancer after CT scan exposure in this cohort was mostly due to irradiation. Because the cancer excess was still continuing at the end of follow-up, the eventual lifetime risk from CT scans cannot yet be determined. Radiation doses from contemporary CT scans are likely to be lower than those in 1985-2005, but some increase in cancer risk is still likely from current scans. Future CT scans should be limited to situations where there is a definite clinical indication, with every scan optimised to provide a diagnostic CT image at the lowest possible radiation dose. PMID:23694687

Absolute risk representation in cardiovascular disease prevention: comprehension and preferences of health care consumers and general practitioners involved in a focus group study.

PubMed

Hill, Sophie; Spink, Janet; Cadilhac, Dominique; Edwards, Adrian; Kaufman, Caroline; Rogers, Sophie; Ryan, Rebecca; Tonkin, Andrew

2010-03-04

Communicating risk is part of primary prevention of coronary heart disease and stroke, collectively referred to as cardiovascular disease (CVD). In Australia, health organisations have promoted an absolute risk approach, thereby raising the question of suitable standardised formats for risk communication. Sixteen formats of risk representation were prepared including statements, icons, graphical formats, alone or in combination, and with variable use of colours. All presented the same risk, i.e., the absolute risk for a 55 year old woman, 16% risk of CVD in five years. Preferences for a five or ten-year timeframe were explored. Australian GPs and consumers were recruited for participation in focus groups, with the data analysed thematically and preferred formats tallied. Three focus groups with health consumers and three with GPs were held, involving 19 consumers and 18 GPs. Consumers and GPs had similar views on which formats were more easily comprehended and which conveyed 16% risk as a high risk. A simple summation of preferences resulted in three graphical formats (thermometers, vertical bar chart) and one statement format as the top choices. The use of colour to distinguish risk (red, yellow, green) and comparative information (age, sex, smoking status) were important ingredients. Consumers found formats which combined information helpful, such as colour, effect of changing behaviour on risk, or comparison with a healthy older person. GPs preferred formats that helped them relate the information about risk of CVD to their patients, and could be used to motivate patients to change behaviour.Several formats were reported as confusing, such as a percentage risk with no contextual information, line graphs, and icons, particularly those with larger numbers. Whilst consumers and GPs shared preferences, the use of one format for all situations was not recommended. Overall, people across groups felt that risk expressed over five years was preferable to a ten-year risk, the latter being too remote. Consumers and GPs shared preferences for risk representation formats. Both groups liked the option to combine formats and tailor the risk information to reflect a specific individual's risk, to maximise understanding and provide a good basis for discussion.

Cancer risk communication in mainstream and ethnic newspapers.

PubMed

Stryker, Jo Ellen; Fishman, Jessica; Emmons, Karen M; Viswanath, Kasisomayajula

2009-01-01

We wanted to understand how cancer risks are communicated in mainstream and ethnic newspapers, to determine whether the 2 kinds of newspapers differ and to examine features of news stories and sources that might predict optimal risk communication. Optimal risk communication was defined as presenting the combination of absolute risk, relative risk, and prevention response efficacy information. We collected data by conducting a content analysis of cancer news coverage from 2003 (5,327 stories in major newspapers, 565 stories in ethnic newspapers). Comparisons of mainstream and ethnic newspapers were conducted by using cross-tabulations and Pearson chi2 tests for significance. Logistic regression equations were computed to calculate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for optimal risk communication. In both kinds of newspapers, cancer risks were rarely communicated numerically. When numeric presentations of cancer risks were used, only 26.2% of mainstream and 29.5% of ethnic newspaper stories provided estimates of both absolute and relative risk. For both kinds of papers, only 19% of news stories presented risk communication optimally. Cancer risks were more likely to be communicated optimally if they focused on prostate cancer, were reports of new research, or discussed medical or demographic risks. Research is needed to understand how these nonnumeric and decontextualized presentations of risk might contribute to inaccurate risk perceptions among news consumers.

Vehicle mass and injury risk in two-car crashes: A novel methodology.

PubMed

Tolouei, Reza; Maher, Mike; Titheridge, Helena

2013-01-01

This paper introduces a novel methodology based on disaggregate analysis of two-car crash data to estimate the partial effects of mass, through the velocity change, on absolute driver injury risk in each of the vehicles involved in the crash when absolute injury risk is defined as the probability of injury when the vehicle is involved in a two-car crash. The novel aspect of the introduced methodology is in providing a solution to the issue of lack of data on the speed of vehicles prior to the crash, which is required to calculate the velocity change, as well as a solution to the issue of lack of information on non-injury two-car crashes in national accident data. These issues have often led to focussing on relative measures of injury risk that are not independent of risk in the colliding cars. Furthermore, the introduced methodology is used to investigate whether there is any effect of vehicle size above and beyond that of mass ratio, and whether there are any effects associated with the gender and age of the drivers. The methodology was used to analyse two-car crashes to investigate the partial effects of vehicle mass and size on absolute driver injury risk. The results confirmed that in a two-car collision, vehicle mass has a protective effect on its own driver injury risk and an aggressive effect on the driver injury risk of the colliding vehicle. The results also confirmed that there is a protective effect of vehicle size above and beyond that of vehicle mass for frontal and front to side collisions. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A new Web-based medical tool for assessment and prevention of comprehensive cardiovascular risk

PubMed Central

Franchi, Daniele; Cini, Davide; Iervasi, Giorgio

2011-01-01

Background: Multifactor cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death; besides well-known cardiovascular risk factors, several emerging factors such as mental stress, diet type, and physical inactivity, have been associated to cardiovascular disease. To date, preventive strategies are based on the concept of absolute risk calculated by different algorithms and scoring systems. However, in general practice the patient’s data collection represents a critical issue. Design: A new multipurpose computer-based program has been developed in order to:1) easily calculate and compare the absolute cardiovascular risk by the Framingham, Procam, and Progetto Cuore algorithms; 2) to design a web-based computerized tool for prospective collection of structured data; 3) to support the doctor in the decision-making process for patients at risk according to recent international guidelines. Methods: During a medical consultation the doctor utilizes a common computer connected by Internet to a medical server where all the patient’s data and software reside. The program evaluates absolute and relative cardiovascular risk factors, personalized patient’s goals, and multiparametric trends, monitors critical parameter values, and generates an automated medical report. Results: In a pilot study on 294 patients (47% males; mean age 60 ± 12 years [±SD]) the global time to collect data at first consultation was 13 ± 11 minutes which declined to 8 ± 7 minutes at the subsequent consultation. In 48.2% of cases the program revealed 2 or more primary risk factor parameters outside guideline indications and gave specific clinical suggestions to return altered parameters to target values. Conclusion: The web-based system proposed here may represent a feasible and flexible tool for clinical management of patients at risk of cardiovascular disease and for epidemiological research. PMID:21445280

Breast Implants and the Risk of Anaplastic Large-Cell Lymphoma in the Breast.

PubMed

de Boer, Mintsje; van Leeuwen, Flora E; Hauptmann, Michael; Overbeek, Lucy I H; de Boer, Jan Paul; Hijmering, Nathalie J; Sernee, Arthur; Klazen, Caroline A H; Lobbes, Marc B I; van der Hulst, René R W J; Rakhorst, Hinne A; de Jong, Daphne

2018-03-01

Breast implants are among the most commonly used medical devices. Since 2008, the number of women with breast implants diagnosed with anaplastic large-cell lymphoma in the breast (breast-ALCL) has increased, and several reports have suggested an association between breast implants and risk of breast-ALCL. However, relative and absolute risks of breast-ALCL in women with implants are still unknown, precluding evidence-based counseling about implants. To determine relative and absolute risks of breast-ALCL in women with breast implants. Through the population-based nationwide Dutch pathology registry we identified all patients diagnosed with primary non-Hodgkin lymphoma in the breast between 1990 and 2016 and retrieved clinical data, including breast implant status, from the treating physicians. We estimated the odds ratio (OR) of ALCL associated with breast implants in a case-control design, comparing implant prevalence between women with breast-ALCL and women with other types of breast lymphoma. Cumulative risk of breast-ALCL was derived from the age-specific prevalence of breast implants in Dutch women, estimated from an examination of 3000 chest x-rays and time trends from implant sales. Relative and absolute risks of breast-ALCL in women with breast implants. Among 43 patients with breast-ALCL (median age, 59 years), 32 had ipsilateral breast implants, compared with 1 among 146 women with other primary breast lymphomas (OR, 421.8; 95% CI, 52.6-3385.2). Implants among breast-ALCL cases were more often macrotextured (23 macrotextured of 28 total implants of known type, 82%) than expected (49 193 sold macrotextured implants of total sold 109 449 between 2010 and 2015, 45%) based on sales data (P < .001). The estimated prevalence of breast implants in women aged 20 to 70 years was 3.3%. Cumulative risks of breast-ALCL in women with implants were 29 per million at 50 years and 82 per million at 70 years. The number of women with implants needed to cause 1 breast-ALCL case before age 75 years was 6920. Breast implants are associated with increased risk of breast-ALCL, but the absolute risk remains small. Our results emphasize the need for increased awareness among the public, medical professionals, and regulatory bodies, promotion of alternative cosmetic procedures, and alertness to signs and symptoms of breast-ALCL in women with implants.

Radiation exposure and circulatory disease risk: Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bomb survivor data, 1950-2003.

PubMed

Shimizu, Yukiko; Kodama, Kazunori; Nishi, Nobuo; Kasagi, Fumiyoshi; Suyama, Akihiko; Soda, Midori; Grant, Eric J; Sugiyama, Hiromi; Sakata, Ritsu; Moriwaki, Hiroko; Hayashi, Mikiko; Konda, Manami; Shore, Roy E

2010-01-14

To investigate the degree to which ionising radiation confers risk of mortality from heart disease and stroke. Prospective cohort study with more than 50 years of follow-up. Atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan. 86 611 Life Span Study cohort members with individually estimated radiation doses from 0 to >3 Gy (86% received <0.2 Gy). Mortality from stroke or heart disease as the underlying cause of death and dose-response relations with atomic bomb radiation. About 9600 participants died of stroke and 8400 died of heart disease between 1950 and 2003. For stroke, the estimated excess relative risk per gray was 9% (95% confidence interval 1% to 17%, P=0.02) on the basis of a linear dose-response model, but an indication of possible upward curvature suggested relatively little risk at low doses. For heart disease, the estimated excess relative risk per gray was 14% (6% to 23%, P<0.001); a linear model provided the best fit, suggesting excess risk even at lower doses. However, the dose-response effect over the restricted dose range of 0 to 0.5 Gy was not significant. Prospective data on smoking, alcohol intake, education, occupation, obesity, and diabetes had almost no impact on the radiation risk estimates for either stroke or heart disease, and misdiagnosis of cancers as circulatory diseases could not account for the associations seen. Doses above 0.5 Gy are associated with an elevated risk of both stroke and heart disease, but the degree of risk at lower doses is unclear. Stroke and heart disease together account for about one third as many radiation associated excess deaths as do cancers among atomic bomb survivors.

Quantifying Unnecessary Normal Tissue Complication Risks due to Suboptimal Planning: A Secondary Study of RTOG 0126.

PubMed

Moore, Kevin L; Schmidt, Rachel; Moiseenko, Vitali; Olsen, Lindsey A; Tan, Jun; Xiao, Ying; Galvin, James; Pugh, Stephanie; Seider, Michael J; Dicker, Adam P; Bosch, Walter; Michalski, Jeff; Mutic, Sasa

2015-06-01

The purpose of this study was to quantify the frequency and clinical severity of quality deficiencies in intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) planning in the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group 0126 protocol. A total of 219 IMRT patients from the high-dose arm (79.2 Gy) of RTOG 0126 were analyzed. To quantify plan quality, we used established knowledge-based methods for patient-specific dose-volume histogram (DVH) prediction of organs at risk and a Lyman-Kutcher-Burman (LKB) model for grade ≥2 rectal complications to convert DVHs into normal tissue complication probabilities (NTCPs). The LKB model was validated by fitting dose-response parameters relative to observed toxicities. The 90th percentile (22 of 219) of plans with the lowest excess risk (difference between clinical and model-predicted NTCP) were used to create a model for the presumed best practices in the protocol (pDVH0126,top10%). Applying the resultant model to the entire sample enabled comparisons between DVHs that patients could have received to DVHs they actually received. Excess risk quantified the clinical impact of suboptimal planning. Accuracy of pDVH predictions was validated by replanning 30 of 219 patients (13.7%), including equal numbers of presumed "high-quality," "low-quality," and randomly sampled plans. NTCP-predicted toxicities were compared to adverse events on protocol. Existing models showed that bladder-sparing variations were less prevalent than rectum quality variations and that increased rectal sparing was not correlated with target metrics (dose received by 98% and 2% of the PTV, respectively). Observed toxicities were consistent with current LKB parameters. Converting DVH and pDVH0126,top10% to rectal NTCPs, we observed 94 of 219 patients (42.9%) with ≥5% excess risk, 20 of 219 patients (9.1%) with ≥10% excess risk, and 2 of 219 patients (0.9%) with ≥15% excess risk. Replanning demonstrated the predicted NTCP reductions while maintaining the volume of the PTV receiving prescription dose. An equivalent sample of high-quality plans showed fewer toxicities than low-quality plans, 6 of 73 versus 10 of 73 respectively, although these differences were not significant (P=.21) due to insufficient statistical power in this retrospective study. Plan quality deficiencies in RTOG 0126 exposed patients to substantial excess risk for rectal complications. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Electrostatic theory of the assembly of PAMAM dendrimers and DNA.

PubMed

Perico, Angelo

2016-05-01

The electrostatic interactions mediated by counterions between a cationic PAMAM dendrimer, modelized as a sphere of radius and cationic surface charge highly increasing with generation, and a DNA, modelized as an anionic elastic line, are analytically calculated in the framework of condensation theory. Under these interactions the DNA is wrapped around the sphere. For excess phosphates relative to dendrimer primary amines, the free energy of the DNA-dendrimer complex displays an absolute minimum when the complex is weakly negatively overcharged. This overcharging opposes gene delivery. For a highly positive dendrimer and a DNA fixed by experimental conditions to a number of phosphates less than the number of dendrimer primary amines, excess amine charges, the dendrimer may at the same time bind stably DNA and interact with negative cell membranes to activate cell transfection in fair agreement with molecular simulations and experiments. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

[Bioimpedometry and its utilization in dialysis therapy].

PubMed

Lopot, František

2016-01-01

Measurement of living tissue impedance - bioimpedometry - started to be used in medicine some 50 years ago, first exclusively for estimation of extracellular and intracellular compartment volumes. Its most simple single frequency (50 kHz) version works directly with the measured impedance vector. Technically more sophisticated versions convert the measured impedance in values of volumes of different compartments of body fluids and calculate also principal markers of nutritional status (lean body mass, adipose tissue mass). The latest version specifically developed for application in dialysis patients includes body composition modelling and provides even absolute value of overhydration (excess fluid). Still in experimental phase is the bioimpedance exploitation for more precise estimation of residual glomerular filtration. Not yet standardized is also segmental bioimpedance measurement which should enable separate assessment of hydration status of the trunk segment and ultrafiltration capacity of peritoneum in peritoneal dialysis patients.Key words: assessment - bioimpedance - excess fluid - fluid status - glomerular filtration - haemodialysis - nutritional status - peritoneal dialysis.

Observation of an excess of cosmic ray muons of energies 2 TeV from the direction of Cygnus X-3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Battistoni, G.; Bellotti, E.; Bloise, C.; Bologna, G.; Campana, P.; Castagnoli, C.; Castellina, A.; Chiarella, V.; Ciocio, A.; Cundy, D.

1985-01-01

A high flux of muons from the Cygnus X-3 direction has been observed in NUSEX experiment at depths greater than 4600 hg/sq cm s.r. The excess muons show the 4.8 hour modulation in arrival time typical of this source. A study of this modulation was done in order to find the best value of the period and of the period derivative. The muon flux underground from NUSEX and SOUDAN (1800 hg/sq cm) experiments are used to determine the energy spectrum at sea level. The shape and the absolute intensities are found similar to those attributed to gamma rays responsible for production of air showers detected in direction of Cygnus X-3 in the energy range 10 to the 12th power to 10 to the 15th power eV.

12 CFR 217.52 - Simple risk-weight approach (SRWA).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... greater than or equal to −1 (that is, between zero and −1), then E equals the absolute value of RVC. If... this section) by the lowest applicable risk weight in this paragraph (b). (1) Zero percent risk weight... credit exposures receive a zero percent risk weight under § 217.32 may be assigned a zero percent risk...

Dairy Intakes at Age 10 Years Do Not Adversely Affect Risk of Excess Adiposity at 13 Years123

PubMed Central

Bigornia, Sherman J.; LaValley, Michael P.; Moore, Lynn L.; Northstone, Kate; Emmett, Pauline; Ness, Andy R.; Newby, P. K.

2014-01-01

Evidence of an association between milk intake and childhood adiposity remains inconsistent, with few data available regarding the effects of the amount of dairy fat consumed. This study examined the relation between dairy consumption (total, full, and reduced fat) at age 10 y on risk of excess adiposity at age 13 y in participants of the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC; n = 2455). Intakes were assessed by 3-d dietary records. Total body fat mass (TBFM) using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry was examined at 13 y. Outcomes included excess TBFM (top quintile of TBFM), overweight, and change in body mass index (BMI). The highest vs. lowest quartile of total dairy consumers (g/d) at age 10 y did not have an increased risk of excess TBFM (OR: 0.73; 95% CI: 0.46, 1.16; P-trend = 0.28) or overweight (OR: 0.69; 95% CI: 0.41, 1.15; P = 0.24) at age 13 y. Children in the highest quartile of full-fat dairy intakes vs. those in the lowest quartile had a reduced risk of excess TBFM (OR: 0.64; 95% CI: 0.41, 1.00; P = 0.04) and a suggestion of a reduction in overweight (OR: 0.65; 95% CI: 0.40, 1.06; P = 0.19) at age 13 y. Furthermore, the highest vs. lowest consumers of full-fat products had smaller gains in BMI during follow-up [2.5 kg/m2 (95% CI: 2.2, 2.7) vs. 2.8 kg/m2 (95% CI: 2.5, 3.0); P < 0.01]. Associations with reduced-fat dairy consumption did not attain statistical significance. In this study, dairy consumption was not related to excess fat accumulation during late childhood. Estimates had wide confidence limits but generally showed inverse relations between dairy intakes and risk of excess adiposity. Additional prospective research is warranted to confirm the effects of dairy intake on obesity in children. PMID:24744312

Optimized Volumetric Modulated Arc Therapy Versus 3D-CRT for Early Stage Mediastinal Hodgkin Lymphoma Without Axillary Involvement: A Comparison of Second Cancers and Heart Disease Risk

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Filippi, Andrea Riccardo, E-mail: andreariccardo.filippi@unito.it; Ragona, Riccardo; Piva, Cristina

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the risks of second cancers and cardiovascular diseases associated with an optimized volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT) planning solution in a selected cohort of stage I/II Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) patients treated with either involved-node or involved-site radiation therapy in comparison with 3-dimensional conformal radiation therapy (3D-CRT). Methods and Materials: Thirty-eight patients (13 males and 25 females) were included. Disease extent was mediastinum alone (n=8, 21.1%); mediastinum plus unilateral neck (n=19, 50%); mediastinum plus bilateral neck (n=11, 29.9%). Prescription dose was 30 Gy in 2-Gy fractions. Only 5 patients had mediastinal bulkymore » disease at diagnosis (13.1%). Anteroposterior 3D-CRT was compared with a multiarc optimized VMAT solution. Lung, breast, and thyroid cancer risks were estimated by calculating a lifetime attributable risk (LAR), with a LAR ratio (LAR{sub VMAT}-to-LAR{sub 3D-CRT}) as a comparative measure. Cardiac toxicity risks were estimated by calculating absolute excess risk (AER). Results: The LAR ratio favored 3D-CRT for lung cancer induction risk in mediastinal alone (P=.004) and mediastinal plus unilateral neck (P=.02) presentations. LAR ratio for breast cancer was lower for VMAT in mediastinal plus bilateral neck presentations (P=.02), without differences for other sites. For thyroid cancer, no significant differences were observed, regardless of anatomical presentation. A significantly lower AER of cardiac (P=.038) and valvular diseases (P<.0001) was observed for VMAT regardless of disease extent. Conclusions: In a cohort of patients with favorable characteristics in terms of disease extent at diagnosis (large prevalence of nonbulky presentations without axillary involvement), optimized VMAT reduced heart disease risk with comparable risks of thyroid and breast cancer, with an increase in lung cancer induction probability. The results are however strongly influenced by the different anatomical presentations, supporting an individualized approach.« less

Blood Clots

MedlinePlus

... sitting for long periods. If you travel by airplane, walk the aisle periodically. For long car trips, ... Your-Risk-for-Excessive-Blood-Clotting_UCM_448771_Article.jsp. Accessed April 18, 2016. What causes excessive ...

Estimate of Space Radiation-Induced Cancer Risks for International Space Station Orbits

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Honglu; Atwell, William; Cucinotta, Francis A.; Yang, Chui-hsu

1996-01-01

Excess cancer risks from exposures to space radiation are estimated for various orbits of the International Space Station (ISS). Organ exposures are computed with the transport codes, BRYNTRN and HZETRN, and the computerized anatomical male and computerized anatomical female models. Cancer risk coefficients in the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements report No. 98 are used to generate lifetime excess cancer incidence and cancer mortality after a one-month mission to ISS. The generated data are tabulated to serve as a quick reference for assessment of radiation risk to astronauts on ISS missions.

Career Excess Mortality Risk from Diagnostic Radiological Exams Required for Crewmembers Participating in Long Duration Space Flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dodge, C. W.; Gonzalez, S. M.; Picco, C. E.; Johnston, S. L.; Shavers, M. R.; VanBaalen, M.

2008-01-01

NASA requires astronauts to undergo diagnostic x-ray examinations as a condition for their employment. The purpose of these procedures is to assess the astronaut s overall health and to diagnose conditions that could jeopardize the success of long duration space missions. These include exams for acceptance into the astronaut corps, routine periodic exams, as well as evaluations taken pre and post missions. Issues: According to NASA policy these medical examinations are considered occupational radiological exposures, and thus, are included when computing the astronaut s overall radiation dose and associated excess cancer mortality risk. As such, astronauts and administrators are concerned about the amount of radiation received from these procedures due to the possibility that these additional doses may cause astronauts to exceed NASA s administrative limits, thus disqualifying them from future flights. Methods: Radiation doses and cancer mortality risks following required medical radiation exposures are presented herein for representative male and female astronaut careers. Calculation of the excess cancer mortality risk was performed by adapting NASA s operational risk assessment model. Averages for astronaut height, weight, number of space missions and age at selection into the astronaut corps were used as inputs to the NASA risk model. Conclusion: The results show that the level of excess cancer mortality imposed by all required medical procedures over an entire astronaut s career is approximately the same as that resulting from a single short duration space flight (i.e. space shuttle mission). In short the summation of all medical procedures involving ionizing radiation should have no impact on the number of missions an astronaut can fly over their career. Learning Objectives: 1. The types of diagnostic medical exams which astronauts are subjected to will be presented. 2. The level of radiation dose and excess mortality risk to the average male and female astronaut will be presented.

Risk and treatment effect heterogeneity: re-analysis of individual participant data from 32 large clinical trials

PubMed Central

Kent, David M; Nelson, Jason; Dahabreh, Issa J; Rothwell, Peter M; Altman, Douglas G; Hayward, Rodney A

2016-01-01

Abstract Background: Risk of the outcome is a mathematical determinant of the absolute treatment benefit of an intervention, yet this can vary substantially within a trial population, complicating the interpretation of trial results. Methods: We developed risk models using Cox or logistic regression on a set of large publicly available randomized controlled trials (RCTs). We evaluated risk heterogeneity using the extreme quartile risk ratio (EQRR, the ratio of outcome rates in the lowest risk quartile to that in the highest) and skewness using the median to mean risk ratio (MMRR, the ratio of risk in the median risk patient to the average). We also examined heterogeneity of treatment effects (HTE) across risk strata. Results: We describe 39 analyses using data from 32 large trials, with event rates across studies ranging from 3% to 63% (median = 15%, 25th–75th percentile = 9–29%). C-statistics of risk models ranged from 0.59 to 0.89 (median = 0.70, 25th–75th percentile = 0.65–0.71). The EQRR ranged from 1.8 to 50.7 (median = 4.3, 25th–75th percentile = 3.0–6.1). The MMRR ranged from 0.4 to 1.0 (median = 0.86, 25th–75th percentile = 0.80–0.92). EQRRs were predictably higher and MMRRs predictably lower as the c-statistic increased or the overall outcome incidence decreased. Among 18 comparisons with a significant overall treatment effect, there was a significant interaction between treatment and baseline risk on the proportional scale in only one. The difference in the absolute risk reduction between extreme risk quartiles ranged from −3.2 to 28.3% (median = 5.1%; 25th–75th percentile = 0.3–10.9). Conclusions: There is typically substantial variation in outcome risk in clinical trials, commonly leading to clinically significant differences in absolute treatment effects. Most patients have outcome risks lower than the trial average reflected in the summary result. Risk-stratified trial analyses are feasible and may be clinically informative, particularly when the outcome is predictable and uncommon. PMID:27375287

Flux and permanence of risk perceptions: Tourists' perception of the relative and absolute risk for various destinations.

PubMed

Wolff, Katharina; Larsen, Svein

2016-12-01

The present investigation is a cross-sectional, multi-national, quantitative, and quasi-experimental comparison of tourists' risk perceptions regarding different destinations throughout the past decade. Over 10,000 tourists to Norway from 89 different countries filled in a questionnaire rating the perceived risk for various destinations. Data were collected during 2004, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2015 and allow for a comparison of perceived risk across time, place and nationality. Results show that while absolute risk judgments for different destinations fluctuate somewhat over the years, relative risk judgments remain constant. Findings also reveal a "home-is-safer-then-abroad-bias" with tourists consistently perceiving their home country among the safest destinations. The current investigation is rare because it looks at more than one destination at a time. Insights gained from the present findings diverge from what would have been concluded from employing case studies, that is, looking at one destination at a time. © 2016 The Authors. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology published by Scandinavian Psychological Associations and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Background risk of breast cancer and the association between physical activity and mammographic density.

PubMed

Trinh, Thang; Eriksson, Mikael; Darabi, Hatef; Bonn, Stephanie E; Brand, Judith S; Cuzick, Jack; Czene, Kamila; Sjölander, Arvid; Bälter, Katarina; Hall, Per

2015-04-02

High physical activity has been shown to decrease the risk of breast cancer, potentially by a mechanism that also reduces mammographic density. We tested the hypothesis that the risk of developing breast cancer in the next 10 years according to the Tyrer-Cuzick prediction model influences the association between physical activity and mammographic density. We conducted a population-based cross-sectional study of 38,913 Swedish women aged 40-74 years. Physical activity was assessed using the validated web-questionnaire Active-Q and mammographic density was measured by the fully automated volumetric Volpara method. The 10-year risk of breast cancer was estimated using the Tyrer-Cuzick (TC) prediction model. Linear regression analyses were performed to assess the association between physical activity and volumetric mammographic density and the potential interaction with the TC breast cancer risk. Overall, high physical activity was associated with lower absolute dense volume. As compared to women with the lowest total activity level (<40 metabolic equivalent hours [MET-h] per day), women with the highest total activity level (≥50 MET-h/day) had an estimated 3.4 cm(3) (95% confidence interval, 2.3-4.7) lower absolute dense volume. The inverse association was seen for any type of physical activity among women with <3.0% TC 10-year risk, but only for total and vigorous activities among women with 3.0-4.9% TC risk, and only for vigorous activity among women with ≥5.0% TC risk. The association between total activity and absolute dense volume was modified by the TC breast cancer risk (P interaction = 0.05). As anticipated, high physical activity was also associated with lower non-dense volume. No consistent association was found between physical activity and percent dense volume. Our results suggest that physical activity may decrease breast cancer risk through reducing mammographic density, and that the physical activity needed to reduce mammographic density may depend on background risk of breast cancer.

Fertility treatment and risk of childhood and adolescent mental disorders: register based cohort study

PubMed Central

Mortensen, Erik Lykke; Hvidtjørn, Dorte; Kesmodel, Ulrik Schiøler

2013-01-01

Objective To assess the mental health of children born after fertility treatment by comparing their risk of mental disorders with that of spontaneously conceived children. Design Prospective register based cohort study. Setting Nationwide register based information from Danish National Health Registers cross linked by a unique personal identification number assigned to all citizens in Denmark. Participants All children born in Denmark in 1995-2003 with follow-up in 2012 when the children were aged 8-17; 33 139 children were conceived after fertility treatment and 555 828 children were born after spontaneous conception. Main outcome measures Absolute risks and hazard ratios for overall and specific mental disorders estimated with adjustment for potential confounding variables. Estimated association between the risk of mental disorders and subtypes of procedures, hormone treatments, gamete types, and cause of infertility. Results The risk of mental disorders in children born after in vitro fertilisation or intracytoplasmic sperm injection was low, and was no higher than in spontaneously conceived children, except for a borderline significant increased risk of tic disorders (hazard ratio 1.40, 95% confidence interval 1.01 to 1.95; absolute risk 0.3%). In contrast, children born after ovulation induction with or without insemination had low but significantly increased risks of any mental disorder (1.20, 1.11 to 1.31; absolute risk 4.1%), autism spectrum disorders (1.20, 1.05 to 1.37; 1.5%), hyperkinetic disorders (1.23, 1.08 to 1.40; 1.7%), conduct, emotional, or social disorder (1.21, 1.02 to 1.45; 0.8%), and tic disorders (1.51, 1.16 to 1.96; 0.4%). There was no risk systematically related to any specific type of hormone drug treatment. Conclusions There was a small increase in the incidence of mental disorders in children born after ovulation induction/intrauterine insemination. Children born after in vitro fertilisation/intracytoplasmic sperm injection were found to have overall risk comparable with children conceived spontaneously. PMID:23833075

Impact of the Absolute Difference in Diastolic Blood Pressure Between Arms in Patients With Coronary Artery Disease

PubMed Central

Hitaka, Yuka; Miura, Shin-ichiro; Koyoshi, Rie; Shiga, Yuhei; Miyase, Yuiko; Norimatsu, Kenji; Nakamura, Ayumi; Adachi, Sen; Kuwano, Takashi; Sugihara, Makoto; Ike, Amane; Nishikawa, Hiroaki; Saku, Keijiro

2015-01-01

Background We investigated the relationship between the severity and presence of coronary artery disease (CAD) and a difference in systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP and DBP) between arms or between lower limbs. Methods We enrolled 277 patients who underwent coronary angiography. We calculated the absolute (|right BP (rt. BP) - left BP (lt. BP)|) and relative (rt. BP - lt. BP) differences in SBP or DBP between arms or between lower limbs, and assessed the severity of CAD in terms of the Gensini score. Results The absolute difference in DBP between arms in the CAD group was significantly lower than that in the non-CAD group, whereas the absolute difference in DBP between lower limbs in the CAD group was significantly higher. There were no differences in the absolute or relative difference in SBP between arms or lower limbs between the groups. The absolute difference in DBP between arms decreased as the Gensini score increased. In a logistic regression analysis, the presence of CAD was independently associated with the absolute difference in DBP between arms, in addition to male, family history, dyslipidemia, diabetes mellitus and hypertension. Conclusion The absolute difference in DBP between arms in addition to traditional factors may be a critical risk factor for the presence of CAD. PMID:26491500

Impact of the Absolute Difference in Diastolic Blood Pressure Between Arms in Patients With Coronary Artery Disease.

PubMed

Hitaka, Yuka; Miura, Shin-Ichiro; Koyoshi, Rie; Shiga, Yuhei; Miyase, Yuiko; Norimatsu, Kenji; Nakamura, Ayumi; Adachi, Sen; Kuwano, Takashi; Sugihara, Makoto; Ike, Amane; Nishikawa, Hiroaki; Saku, Keijiro

2015-11-01

We investigated the relationship between the severity and presence of coronary artery disease (CAD) and a difference in systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP and DBP) between arms or between lower limbs. We enrolled 277 patients who underwent coronary angiography. We calculated the absolute (|right BP (rt. BP) - left BP (lt. BP)|) and relative (rt. BP - lt. BP) differences in SBP or DBP between arms or between lower limbs, and assessed the severity of CAD in terms of the Gensini score. The absolute difference in DBP between arms in the CAD group was significantly lower than that in the non-CAD group, whereas the absolute difference in DBP between lower limbs in the CAD group was significantly higher. There were no differences in the absolute or relative difference in SBP between arms or lower limbs between the groups. The absolute difference in DBP between arms decreased as the Gensini score increased. In a logistic regression analysis, the presence of CAD was independently associated with the absolute difference in DBP between arms, in addition to male, family history, dyslipidemia, diabetes mellitus and hypertension. The absolute difference in DBP between arms in addition to traditional factors may be a critical risk factor for the presence of CAD.

The Women’s Health Initiative Hormone Therapy Trials: Update and Overview of Health Outcomes During the Intervention and Post-Stopping Phases

PubMed Central

Manson, JoAnn E.; Chlebowski, Rowan T.; Stefanick, Marcia L.; Aragaki, Aaron K.; Rossouw, Jacques E.; Prentice, Ross L.; Anderson, Garnet; Howard, Barbara V.; Thomson, Cynthia A.; LaCroix, Andrea Z.; Wactawski-Wende, Jean; Jackson, Rebecca D.; Limacher, Marian; Margolis, Karen L.; Wassertheil-Smoller, Sylvia; Beresford, Shirley A.; Cauley, Jane A.; Eaton, Charles B.; Gass, Margery; Hsia, Judith; Johnson, Karen C.; Kooperberg, Charles; Kuller, Lewis H.; Lewis, Cora E.; Liu, Simin; Martin, Lisa W.; Ockene, Judith K.; O’Sullivan, Mary Jo; Powell, Lynda; Simon, Michael S.; Van Horn, Linda; Vitolins, Mara Z.; Wallace, Robert B.

2014-01-01

IMPORTANCE Menopausal hormone therapy continues in clinical use but questions remain regarding its risks and benefits for chronic disease prevention. OBJECTIVE To provide a comprehensive, integrated overview of findings from the two Women’s Health Initiative (WHI) hormone therapy (HT) trials with extended post-intervention follow up. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, AND INTERVENTIONS 27,347 postmenopausal women, age 50–79 years, were enrolled at 40 US centers. Interventions were conjugated equine estrogens (CEE, 0.625 mg/day) with medroxyprogesterone acetate (MPA, 2.5 mg/day) for women with an intact uterus (N = 16,608) and CEE alone for women with hysterectomy (N= 10,739), or their placebos. Intervention continued for 5.6 and 7.2 years (median), respectively, with cumulative follow-up of 13 years through September 30, 2010. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary efficacy and safety outcomes were coronary heart disease (CHD) and invasive breast cancer, respectively. A global index also included stroke, pulmonary embolism, colorectal cancer, endometrial cancer, hip fracture, and deaths. Secondary and quality-of-life outcomes were also assessed. RESULTS During the intervention phase for CEE+MPA, the hazard ratio (HR) for CHD was 1.18 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.95–1.45) and overall risks outweighed benefits, with increases in invasive breast cancer, stroke, pulmonary embolism, and the global index. Other risks included increased dementia (in women >65 years), gallbladder disease, and urinary incontinence, while benefits included decreased hip fractures, diabetes, and vasomotor symptoms. Post-intervention, most risks and benefits dissipated, although some elevation in breast cancer risk persisted (cumulative hazard ratio [HR] =1.28; 95% confidence interval, 1.11–1.48). During intervention for CEE alone, risks and benefits were more balanced, with a HR for CHD of 0.94 (0.78–1.14), increased stroke and venous thrombosis, decreased hip fractures and diabetes, and over cumulative follow-up, decreased breast cancer (HR=0.79 [0.65–0.97]). Neither regimen affected all-cause mortality. With CEE, younger women (50–59 years) had more favorable results for all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction, and the global index (nominal P values for trend by age <0.05), but not for stroke and venous thrombosis. Absolute risks of adverse events (measured by the global index) per 10,000 women per year on CEE+MPA ranged from 12 excess cases for age 50–59 to 38 for age 70–79 and, for CEE, from 19 fewer cases for age 50–59 to 51 excess cases for age 70–79. Results for quality of life outcomes in both trials were mixed. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Menopausal hormone therapy has a complex pattern of risks and benefits. While appropriate for symptom management in some women, its use for chronic disease prevention is not supported by the WHI randomized trials. TRIAL REGISTRATION clinical trials.gov Identifier: NCT00000611 PMID:24084921

Aspirin in Older Adults: Need for Wider Utilization in Secondary Prevention and Individual Clinical Judgments in Primary Prevention.

PubMed

Sehgal, Mandi; Wood, Sarah K; Ouslander, Joseph G; Hennekens, Charles H

2017-11-01

In the treatment or secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD), there is general consensus that the absolute benefits of aspirin far outweigh the absolute risks. Despite evidence from randomized trials and their meta-analyses, older adults, defined as aged 65 years or older, are less likely to be prescribed aspirin than their middle-aged counterparts. In primary prevention, the optimal utilization of aspirin is widely debated. There is insufficient randomized evidence among apparently healthy participants at moderate to high risk of a first CVD event, so general guidelines seem premature. Among older adults, randomized data are even more sparse but trials are ongoing. Further, older adults commonly take multiple medications due to comorbidities, which may increase deleterious interactions and side effects. Older adults have higher risks of occlusive events as well as bleeding. All these considerations support the need for individual clinical judgments in prescribing aspirin in the context of therapeutic lifestyle changes and other adjunctive drug therapies. These include statins for lipids and usually multiple drugs to achieve control of high blood pressure. As regards aspirin, the clinician should weigh the absolute benefit on occlusion against the absolute risk of bleeding. These issues should be considered with each patient to facilitate an informed and person-centered individual clinical judgment. The use of aspirin in primary prevention is particularly attractive because the drug is generally over the counter and, for developing countries where CVD is becoming the leading cause of death, is extremely inexpensive. The more widespread use of aspirin in older adults with prior CVD will confer net benefits to risks and even larger net benefits to costs in the United States as well as other developed and developing countries. In primary prevention among older adults, individual clinical judgments should be made by the health-care professional and each of his or her patients.

Persistent socioeconomic inequalities in cardiovascular risk factors in England over 1994-2008: A time-trend analysis of repeated cross-sectional data

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Our aims were to determine the pace of change in cardiovascular risk factors by age, gender and socioeconomic groups from 1994 to 2008, and quantify the magnitude, direction and change in absolute and relative inequalities. Methods Time trend analysis was used to measure change in absolute and relative inequalities in risk factors by gender and age (16-54, ≥ 55 years), using repeated cross-sectional data from the Health Survey for England 1994-2008. Seven risk factors were examined: smoking, obesity, diabetes, high blood pressure, raised cholesterol, consumption of five or more daily portions of fruit and vegetables, and physical activity. Socioeconomic group was measured using the Index of Multiple Deprivation 2007. Results Between 1994 and 2008, the prevalence of smoking, high blood pressure and raised cholesterol decreased in most deprivation quintiles. However, obesity and diabetes increased. Increasing absolute inequalities were found in obesity in older men and women (p = 0.044 and p = 0.027 respectively), diabetes in young men and older women (p = 0.036 and p = 0.019 respectively), and physical activity in older women (p = 0.025). Relative inequality increased in high blood pressure in young women (p = 0.005). The prevalence of raised cholesterol showed widening absolute and relative inverse gradients from 1998 onwards in older men (p = 0.004 and p ≤ 0.001 respectively) and women (p ≤ 0.001 and p ≤ 0.001). Conclusions Favourable trends in smoking, blood pressure and cholesterol are consistent with falling coronary heart disease death rates. However, adverse trends in obesity and diabetes are likely to counteract some of these gains. Furthermore, little progress over the last 15 years has been made towards reducing inequalities. Implementation of known effective population based approaches in combination with interventions targeted at individuals/subgroups with poorer cardiovascular risk profiles are therefore recommended to reduce social inequalities. PMID:22333887

The Ethics of Information: Absolute Risk Reduction and Patient Understanding of Screening

PubMed Central

Meslin, Eric M.

2008-01-01

Some experts have argued that patients should routinely be told the specific magnitude and absolute probability of potential risks and benefits of screening tests. This position is motivated by the idea that framing risk information in ways that are less precise violates the ethical principle of respect for autonomy and its application in informed consent or shared decision-making. In this Perspective, we consider a number of problems with this view that have not been adequately addressed. The most important challenges stem from the danger that patients will misunderstand the information or have irrational responses to it. Any initiative in this area should take such factors into account and should consider carefully how to apply the ethical principles of respect for autonomy and beneficence. PMID:18421509

Effect of treatment delay, age, and stroke severity on the effects of intravenous thrombolysis with alteplase for acute ischaemic stroke: a meta-analysis of individual patient data from randomised trials.

PubMed

Emberson, Jonathan; Lees, Kennedy R; Lyden, Patrick; Blackwell, Lisa; Albers, Gregory; Bluhmki, Erich; Brott, Thomas; Cohen, Geoff; Davis, Stephen; Donnan, Geoffrey; Grotta, James; Howard, George; Kaste, Markku; Koga, Masatoshi; von Kummer, Ruediger; Lansberg, Maarten; Lindley, Richard I; Murray, Gordon; Olivot, Jean Marc; Parsons, Mark; Tilley, Barbara; Toni, Danilo; Toyoda, Kazunori; Wahlgren, Nils; Wardlaw, Joanna; Whiteley, William; del Zoppo, Gregory J; Baigent, Colin; Sandercock, Peter; Hacke, Werner

2014-11-29

Alteplase is effective for treatment of acute ischaemic stroke but debate continues about its use after longer times since stroke onset, in older patients, and among patients who have had the least or most severe strokes. We assessed the role of these factors in affecting good stroke outcome in patients given alteplase. We did a pre-specified meta-analysis of individual patient data from 6756 patients in nine randomised trials comparing alteplase with placebo or open control. We included all completed randomised phase 3 trials of intravenous alteplase for treatment of acute ischaemic stroke for which data were available. Retrospective checks confirmed that no eligible trials had been omitted. We defined a good stroke outcome as no significant disability at 3-6 months, defined by a modified Rankin Score of 0 or 1. Additional outcomes included symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage (defined by type 2 parenchymal haemorrhage within 7 days and, separately, by the SITS-MOST definition of parenchymal type 2 haemorrhage within 36 h), fatal intracranial haemorrhage within 7 days, and 90-day mortality. Alteplase increased the odds of a good stroke outcome, with earlier treatment associated with bigger proportional benefit. Treatment within 3·0 h resulted in a good outcome for 259 (32·9%) of 787 patients who received alteplase versus 176 (23·1%) of 762 who received control (OR 1·75, 95% CI 1·35-2·27); delay of greater than 3·0 h, up to 4·5 h, resulted in good outcome for 485 (35·3%) of 1375 versus 432 (30·1%) of 1437 (OR 1·26, 95% CI 1·05-1·51); and delay of more than 4·5 h resulted in good outcome for 401 (32·6%) of 1229 versus 357 (30·6%) of 1166 (OR 1·15, 95% CI 0·95-1·40). Proportional treatment benefits were similar irrespective of age or stroke severity. Alteplase significantly increased the odds of symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage (type 2 parenchymal haemorrhage definition 231 [6·8%] of 3391 vs 44 [1·3%] of 3365, OR 5·55, 95% CI 4·01-7·70, p<0·0001; SITS-MOST definition 124 [3·7%] vs 19 [0·6%], OR 6·67, 95% CI 4·11-10·84, p<0·0001) and of fatal intracranial haemorrhage within 7 days (91 [2·7%] vs 13 [0·4%]; OR 7·14, 95% CI 3·98-12·79, p<0·0001). The relative increase in fatal intracranial haemorrhage from alteplase was similar irrespective of treatment delay, age, or stroke severity, but the absolute excess risk attributable to alteplase was bigger among patients who had more severe strokes. There was no excess in other early causes of death and no significant effect on later causes of death. Consequently, mortality at 90 days was 608 (17·9%) in the alteplase group versus 556 (16·5%) in the control group (hazard ratio 1·11, 95% CI 0·99-1·25, p=0·07). Taken together, therefore, despite an average absolute increased risk of early death from intracranial haemorrhage of about 2%, by 3-6 months this risk was offset by an average absolute increase in disability-free survival of about 10% for patients treated within 3·0 h and about 5% for patients treated after 3·0 h, up to 4·5 h. Irrespective of age or stroke severity, and despite an increased risk of fatal intracranial haemorrhage during the first few days after treatment, alteplase significantly improves the overall odds of a good stroke outcome when delivered within 4·5 h of stroke onset, with earlier treatment associated with bigger proportional benefits. UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, University of Glasgow, University of Edinburgh. Copyright © 2014 Emberson et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The epidemiology of haemochromatosis: a population-based study.

PubMed

Crooks, C J; West, J; Solaymani-Dodaran, M; Card, T R

2009-01-01

The discovery of the HFE genotype has revolutionized the diagnosis of haemochromatosis, changing the associated mortality and morbidity. To investigate the clinical significance of a diagnosis of haemochromatosis. In a cohort study, we identified 501 people with haemochromatosis and 4950 age- and gender-matched controls from the UK General Practice Research Database between 1987 and 2002. The incidence of a diagnosis of haemochromatosis increased approximately 2-fold over the study period and was associated with a 2.2-fold increase in mortality [hazard ratio, 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 1.6-3.0]. There was no increase in extra hepatic malignancy, but an absolute risk excess of liver cancer of 0.89% per year. Diabetes, impotence, osteoarthritis and crystal arthritis were associated with haemochromatosis with odds ratios of 5.4 (95% CI, 4.1-7.0), 2.7(95% CI, 1.8-4.0), 1.9(95% CI, 1.5-2.4) and 2.1(95% CI, 1.4-3.1) respectively. Increasing numbers of people are being diagnosed with haemochromatosis, and the mortality associated with this disease remains high. However, people are living with considerably lower levels of morbidity than previously reported. This encouragingly suggests earlier diagnoses are being made, prior to the development of complications.

Challenges in Determining the Role of Rest and Exercise in the Management of Mild Traumatic Brain Injury.

PubMed

Wells, Elizabeth M; Goodkin, Howard P; Griesbach, Grace S

2016-01-01

Current consensus guidelines recommending physical and cognitive rest until a patient is asymptomatic after a sports concussion (ie, a mild traumatic brain injury) are being called into question, particularly for patients who are slower to recover and in light of preclinical and clinical research demonstrating that exercise aids neurorehabilitation. The pathophysiological response to mild traumatic brain injury includes a complex neurometabolic cascade of events resulting in a neurologic energy deficit. It has been proposed that this energy deficit leads to a period of vulnerability during which the brain is at risk for additional injury, explains why early postconcussive symptoms are exacerbated by cognitive and physical exertion, and is used to rationalize absolute rest until all symptoms have resolved. However, at some point, rest might no longer be beneficial and exercise might need to be introduced. At both extremes, excessive exertion and prolonged avoidance of exercise (physical and mental) have negative consequences. Individuals who have experienced a concussion need guidance for avoidance of triggers of severe symptoms and a plan for graduated exercise to promote recovery as well as optimal functioning (physical, educational, and social) during the postconcussion period. © The Author(s) 2015.

Large-Scale Simulation of Multi-Asset Ising Financial Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takaishi, Tetsuya

2017-03-01

We perform a large-scale simulation of an Ising-based financial market model that includes 300 asset time series. The financial system simulated by the model shows a fat-tailed return distribution and volatility clustering and exhibits unstable periods indicated by the volatility index measured as the average of absolute-returns. Moreover, we determine that the cumulative risk fraction, which measures the system risk, changes at high volatility periods. We also calculate the inverse participation ratio (IPR) and its higher-power version, IPR6, from the absolute-return cross-correlation matrix. Finally, we show that the IPR and IPR6 also change at high volatility periods.

Focus on nutrition: the role of iodine in nutrition and metabolism.

PubMed

Zicker, Steve; Schoenherr, Bill

2012-10-01

Iodine, which forms part of thyroid hormone, is essential for sustaining life in vertebrate animals. An absolute iodine requirement is difficult to determine because of adaptive responses to varying iodine intake. Excess or deficient iodine intake may result in altered thyroid metabolism. The magnitude and direction of the response to changes in dietary intake may also depend on previous iodine intake. Therefore, an understanding of the distribution, absorption, and metabolic fate of iodine is integral to the investigation of the role of iodine in disease states.

VizieR Online Data Catalog: DUNES survey observational results (Eiroa+, 2013)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eiroa, C.; Marshall, J. P.; Mora, A.; Montesinos, B.; Absil, O.; Augereau, J.-C.; Bayo, A.; Bryden, G.; Danchi, W.; Del Burgo, C.; Ertel, S.; Fridlund, M.; Heras, A. M.; Krivov, A. V.; Launhardt, R.; Liseau, R.; Loehne, T.; Maldonado, J.; Pilbratt, G. L.; Roberge, A.; Rodmann, J.; Sanz-Forcada, J.; Solano, E.; Stapelfeldt, K.; Thebault, P.; Wolf, S.; Ardila, D.; Arevalo, M.; Beichmann, C.; Faramaz, V.; Gonzalez-Garcia, B. M.; Gutierrez, R.; Lebreton, J.; Martinez-Arnaiz, R.; Meeus, G.; Montes, D.; Olofsson, G.; Su, K. Y. L.; White, G. J.; Barrado, D.; Fukagawa, M.; Gruen, E.; Kamp, I.; Lorente, R.; Morbidelli, A.; Mueller, S.; Mutschke, H.; Nakagawa, T.; Ribas, I.; Walker, H.

2013-05-01

The on-line tabular material contains a complete description of the DUNES objects, providing absolute parameters of the stars, the photometry used to build their spectral energy distributions, the Herschel/PACS fluxes, the photospheric predictions at the PACS wavelengths, the significance of the potential excesses and additional information concerning the stars with extended emission, the offsets of the stellar positions as measured in the optical and in the PACS100 images, the AORs (Astronomical Observation Request number) of the observations and the on-source integration times. (11 data files).

Communicating data about the benefits and harms of treatment: a randomized trial.

PubMed

Woloshin, Steven; Schwartz, Lisa M

2011-07-19

Despite limited evidence, it is often asserted that natural frequencies (for example, 2 in 1000) are the best way to communicate absolute risks. To compare comprehension of treatment benefit and harm when absolute risks are presented as natural frequencies, percents, or both. Parallel-group randomized trial with central allocation and masking of investigators to group assignment, conducted through an Internet survey in September 2009. (ClinicalTrials.gov registration number: NCT00950014) National sample of U.S. adults randomly selected from a professional survey firm's research panel of about 30,000 households. 2944 adults aged 18 years or older (all with complete follow-up). Tables presenting absolute risks in 1 of 5 numeric formats: natural frequency (x in 1000), variable frequency (x in 100, x in 1000, or x in 10,000, as needed to keep the numerator >1), percent, percent plus natural frequency, or percent plus variable frequency. Comprehension as assessed by 18 questions (primary outcome) and judgment of treatment benefit and harm. The average number of comprehension questions answered correctly was lowest in the variable frequency group and highest in the percent group (13.1 vs. 13.8; difference, 0.7 [95% CI, 0.3 to 1.1]). The proportion of participants who "passed" the comprehension test (≥13 correct answers) was lowest in the natural and variable frequency groups and highest in the percent group (68% vs. 73%; difference, 5 percentage points [CI, 0 to 10 percentage points]). The largest format effect was seen for the 2 questions about absolute differences: the proportion correct in the natural frequency versus percent groups was 43% versus 72% (P < 0.001) and 73% versus 87% (P < 0.001). Even when data were presented in the percent format, one third of participants failed the comprehension test. Natural frequencies are not the best format for communicating the absolute benefits and harms of treatment. The more succinct percent format resulted in better comprehension: Comprehension was slightly better overall and notably better for absolute differences. Attorney General Consumer and Prescriber Education grant program, the Robert Wood Johnson Pioneer Program, and the National Cancer Institute.

Nonvitamin-K-antagonist oral anticoagulants versus warfarin in patients with atrial fibrillation and previous stroke or transient ischemic attack: An updated systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Ntaios, George; Papavasileiou, Vasileios; Diener, Hans-Chris; Makaritsis, Konstantinos; Michel, Patrik

2017-08-01

Background In a previous systematic review and meta-analysis, we assessed the efficacy and safety of nonvitamin-K antagonist oral anticoagulants versus warfarin in patients with atrial fibrillation and stroke or transient ischemic attack. Since then, new information became available. Aim The aim of the present work was to update the results of the previous systematic review and meta-analysis. Methods We searched PubMed until 24 August 2016 for randomized controlled trials using the following search items: "atrial fibrillation" and "anticoagulation" and "warfarin" and "previous stroke or transient ischemic attack." Eligible studies had to be phase III trials in patients with atrial fibrillation comparing warfarin with nonvitamin-K antagonist oral anticoagulants currently on the market or with the intention to be brought to the market in North America or Europe. The outcomes assessed in the efficacy analysis included stroke or systemic embolism, stroke, ischemic or unknown stroke, disabling or fatal stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, cardiovascular death, death from any cause, and myocardial infarction. The outcomes assessed in the safety analysis included major bleeding, intracranial bleeding, and major gastrointestinal bleeding. We performed fixed effects analyses on intention-to-treat basis. Results Among 183 potentially eligible articles, four were included in the meta-analysis. In 20,500 patients, compared to warfarin, nonvitamin-K antagonist oral anticoagulants were associated with a significant reduction of stroke/systemic embolism (relative risk reduction: 13.7%, absolute risk reduction: 0.78%, number needed to treat to prevent one event: 127), hemorrhagic stroke (relative risk reduction: 50.0%, absolute risk reduction: 0.63%, number needed to treat: 157), any stroke (relative risk reduction: 13.1%, absolute risk reduction: 0.7%, number needed to treat: 142), and intracranial hemorrhage (relative risk reduction: 46.1%, absolute risk reduction: 0.88%, number needed to treat: 113) over 1.8-2.8 years. Conclusions This updated meta-analysis in 20,500 atrial fibrillation patients with previous stroke or transient ischemic attack shows that compared to warfarin non-vitamin-K antagonist oral anticoagulants are associated with a significant reduction of stroke, stroke or systemic embolism, hemorrhagic stroke, and intracranial bleeding.

Patient characteristics and factors associated with inter-arm difference of blood pressure measurements in a general population in Ohasama, Japan.

PubMed

Kimura, Atsushi; Hashimoto, Junichiro; Watabe, Daisuke; Takahashi, Hisaki; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Kikuya, Masahiro; Imai, Yutaka

2004-12-01

To assess whether there is a natural difference in blood pressure (BP) measurements between the right and left arms, and to identify what factors are associated with this difference in a general population. The study subjects were 1090 individuals who participated in a medical check-up in Ohasama, Japan. The BP was measured simultaneously in both arms, using an automated device. The inter-arm BP difference was expressed as the relative difference [right-arm BP (R) minus left-arm BP (L): R - L] and the absolute difference (|R - L|). The relationship between inter-arm difference and various factors was analyzed using univariate analysis. The characteristics of subjects in whom the absolute systolic BP (SBP) difference was greater than 10 mmHg were analyzed using multivariate logistic analysis. The relative differences in SBP and diastolic BP (DBP) were -0.6 +/- 6.6 (mean +/- SD) and 1.1 +/- 4.7 mmHg, while the absolute differences were 4.9 +/- 4.4 and 3.7 +/- 3.0 mmHg. The absolute SBP difference was found to correlate significantly with age, body mass index, ankle-brachial index (ABI), and hypertension. Subjects with hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, obesity, elevated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) and low ABI had a significant and independent increase in the risk of an absolute SBP difference greater than 10 mmHg. The results suggest that there is considerable difference in the measured BP in the right and left arms and that large differences in the absolute SBP are associated with risk factors for arteriosclerosis such as hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, obesity, metabolic abnormalities and low ABI.

Absolute change in fasting plasma glucose over 12 months is associated with 2-year and 5-year major adverse cardiovascular events in patients with drug-eluting stent implants.

PubMed

Kang, Dong Oh; Seo, Hong Seog; Choi, Byung Geol; Lee, Eunmi; Kim, Ji Park; Lee, Sun Ki; Im, Sung Il; Na, Jin Oh; Choi, Cheol Ung; Lim, Hong Euy; Kim, Jin Won; Kim, Eung Ju; Rha, Seung-Woon; Park, Chang Gyu; Oh, Dong Joo

2015-01-20

Major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) in patients with or without cardiovascular disease (CVD) are greatly affected by various factors associated with metabolism and inflammation. To determine which clinical parameters at treatment are associated with the development of 2-year and 5-year MACEs in high-risk patients with CVD who have undergone drug-eluting stent (DES) implantation. The present study involved a total of 432 patients who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention with DES. Variables representing the average and absolute amount of change in clinical parameters over the 12-month follow-up were assessed for association with 2-year and 5-year development of MACE. The study population was divided into quartiles for the variable showing the highest correlation to MACE development. Estimated incidence of 2-year and 5-year MACEs for each of the quartiles was determined by survival curve analysis, and subgroup analysis was performed for patients with diabetes and statin users. Absolute change in fasting plasma glucose (FPG) over 12 months showed the highest correlation with 2-year and 5-year MACE development. The estimated incidence of MACE increased with increasing quartiles for absolute change in FPG. The association between absolute change in FPG and MACE development exhibited a stronger relationship for the specific subgroups of patients with diabetes and statin users. Increases and decreases in FPG had a comparable contribution to MACE development. A greater absolute change in FPG over 12 months post-PCI is an independent risk factor for 2-year and 5-year MACE development in DES-implanted patients, especially in the diabetes and statin users. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating population exposure to ambient polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon in the United States - Part II: Source apportionment and cancer risk assessment.

PubMed

Zhang, Jie; Wang, Peng; Li, Jingyi; Mendola, Pauline; Sherman, Seth; Ying, Qi

2016-12-01

A revised Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model was developed to simulate the emission, reactions, transport, deposition and gas-to-particle partitioning processes of 16 priority polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), as described in Part I of the two-part series. The updated CMAQ model was applied in this study to quantify the contributions of different emission sources to the predicted PAH concentrations and excess cancer risk in the United States (US) in 2011. The cancer risk in the continental US due to inhalation exposure of outdoor naphthalene (NAPH) and seven larger carcinogenic PAHs (cPAHs) was predicted to be significant. The incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR) exceeds 1×10 -5 in many urban and industrial areas. Exposure to PAHs was estimated to result in 5704 (608-10,800) excess lifetime cancer cases. Point sources not related with energy generation and the oil and gas processes account for approximately 31% of the excess cancer cases, followed by non-road engines with 18.6% contributions. Contributions of residential wood combustion (16.2%) are similar to that of transportation-related sources (mostly motor vehicles with small contributions from railway and marine vessels; 13.4%). The oil and gas industry emissions, although large contributors to high concentrations of cPAHs regionally, are only responsible of 4.3% of the excess cancer cases, which is similar to the contributions of non-US sources (6.8%) and non-point sources (7.2%). The power generation units pose the most minimal impact on excess cancer risk, with contributions of approximately 2.3%. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Chiral Analysis of Isopulegol by Fourier Transform Molecular Rotational Spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evangelisti, Luca; Seifert, Nathan A.; Spada, Lorenzo; Pate, Brooks

2016-06-01

Chiral analysis on molecules with multiple chiral centers can be performed using pulsed-jet Fourier transform rotational spectroscopy. This analysis includes quantitative measurement of diastereomer products and, with the three wave mixing methods developed by Patterson, Schnell, and Doyle (Nature 497, 475-477 (2013)), quantitative determination of the enantiomeric excess of each diastereomer. The high resolution features enable to perform the analysis directly on complex samples without the need for chromatographic separation. Isopulegol has been chosen to show the capabilities of Fourier transform rotational spectroscopy for chiral analysis. Broadband rotational spectroscopy produces spectra with signal-to-noise ratio exceeding 1000:1. The ability to identify low-abundance (0.1-1%) diastereomers in the sample will be described. Methods to rapidly identify rotational spectra from isotopologues at natural abundance will be shown and the molecular structures obtained from this analysis will be compared to theory. The role that quantum chemistry calculations play in identifying structural minima and estimating their spectroscopic properties to aid spectral analysis will be described. Finally, the implementation of three wave mixing techniques to measure the enantiomeric excess of each diastereomer and determine the absolute configuration of the enantiomer in excess will be described.

The visual communication of risk.

PubMed

Lipkus, I M; Hollands, J G

1999-01-01

This paper 1) provides reasons why graphics should be effective aids to communicate risk; 2) reviews the use of visuals, especially graphical displays, to communicate risk; 3) discusses issues to consider when designing graphs to communicate risk; and 4) provides suggestions for future research. Key articles and materials were obtained from MEDLINE(R) and PsychInfo(R) databases, from reference article citations, and from discussion with experts in risk communication. Research has been devoted primarily to communicating risk magnitudes. Among the various graphical displays, the risk ladder appears to be a promising tool for communicating absolute and relative risks. Preliminary evidence suggests that people understand risk information presented in histograms and pie charts. Areas that need further attention include 1) applying theoretical models to the visual communication of risk, 2) testing which graphical displays can be applied best to different risk communication tasks (e.g., which graphs best convey absolute or relative risks), 3) communicating risk uncertainty, and 4) testing whether the lay public's perceptions and understanding of risk varies by graphical format and whether the addition of graphical displays improves comprehension substantially beyond numerical or narrative translations of risk and, if so, by how much. There is a need to ascertain the extent to which graphics and other visuals enhance the public's understanding of disease risk to facilitate decision-making and behavioral change processes. Nine suggestions are provided to help achieve these ends.

Metabolic mediators of the effects of body-mass index, overweight, and obesity on coronary heart disease and stroke: a pooled analysis of 97 prospective cohorts with 1·8 million participants

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Summary Background Body-mass index (BMI) and diabetes have increased worldwide, whereas global average blood pressure and cholesterol have decreased or remained unchanged in the past three decades. We quantified how much of the effects of BMI on coronary heart disease and stroke are mediated through blood pressure, cholesterol, and glucose, and how much is independent of these factors. Methods We pooled data from 97 prospective cohort studies that collectively enrolled 1·8 million participants between 1948 and 2005, and that included 57 161 coronary heart disease and 31 093 stroke events. For each cohort we excluded participants who were younger than 18 years, had a BMI of lower than 20 kg/m2, or who had a history of coronary heart disease or stroke. We estimated the hazard ratio (HR) of BMI on coronary heart disease and stroke with and without adjustment for all possible combinations of blood pressure, cholesterol, and glucose. We pooled HRs with a random-effects model and calculated the attenuation of excess risk after adjustment for mediators. Findings The HR for each 5 kg/m2 higher BMI was 1·27 (95% CI 1·23–1·31) for coronary heart disease and 1·18 (1·14–1·22) for stroke after adjustment for confounders. Additional adjustment for the three metabolic risk factors reduced the HRs to 1·15 (1·12–1·18) for coronary heart disease and 1·04 (1·01–1·08) for stroke, suggesting that 46% (95% CI 42–50) of the excess risk of BMI for coronary heart disease and 76% (65–91) for stroke is mediated by these factors. Blood pressure was the most important mediator, accounting for 31% (28–35) of the excess risk for coronary heart disease and 65% (56–75) for stroke. The percentage excess risks mediated by these three mediators did not differ significantly between Asian and western cohorts (North America, western Europe, Australia, and New Zealand). Both overweight (BMI ≥25 to <30 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2) were associated with a significantly increased risk of coronary heart disease and stroke, compared with normal weight (BMI ≥20 to <25 kg/m2), with 50% (44–58) of the excess risk of overweight and 44% (41–48) of the excess risk of obesity for coronary heart disease mediated by the selected three mediators. The percentages for stroke were 98% (69–155) for overweight and 69% (64–77) for obesity. Interpretation Interventions that reduce high blood pressure, cholesterol, and glucose might address about half of excess risk of coronary heart disease and three-quarters of excess risk of stroke associated with high BMI. Maintenance of optimum bodyweight is needed for the full benefits. Funding US National Institute of Health, UK Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health Research Comprehensive Biomedical Research Centre at Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, Lown Scholars in Residence Program on cardiovascular disease prevention, and Harvard Global Health Institute Doctoral Research Grant. PMID:24269108

Metabolic mediators of the effects of body-mass index, overweight, and obesity on coronary heart disease and stroke: a pooled analysis of 97 prospective cohorts with 1·8 million participants.

PubMed

Lu, Yuan; Hajifathalian, Kaveh; Ezzati, Majid; Woodward, Mark; Rimm, Eric B; Danaei, Goodarz

2014-03-15

Body-mass index (BMI) and diabetes have increased worldwide, whereas global average blood pressure and cholesterol have decreased or remained unchanged in the past three decades. We quantified how much of the effects of BMI on coronary heart disease and stroke are mediated through blood pressure, cholesterol, and glucose, and how much is independent of these factors. We pooled data from 97 prospective cohort studies that collectively enrolled 1·8 million participants between 1948 and 2005, and that included 57,161 coronary heart disease and 31,093 stroke events. For each cohort we excluded participants who were younger than 18 years, had a BMI of lower than 20 kg/m(2), or who had a history of coronary heart disease or stroke. We estimated the hazard ratio (HR) of BMI on coronary heart disease and stroke with and without adjustment for all possible combinations of blood pressure, cholesterol, and glucose. We pooled HRs with a random-effects model and calculated the attenuation of excess risk after adjustment for mediators. The HR for each 5 kg/m(2) higher BMI was 1·27 (95% CI 1·23-1·31) for coronary heart disease and 1·18 (1·14-1·22) for stroke after adjustment for confounders. Additional adjustment for the three metabolic risk factors reduced the HRs to 1·15 (1·12-1·18) for coronary heart disease and 1·04 (1·01-1·08) for stroke, suggesting that 46% (95% CI 42-50) of the excess risk of BMI for coronary heart disease and 76% (65-91) for stroke is mediated by these factors. Blood pressure was the most important mediator, accounting for 31% (28-35) of the excess risk for coronary heart disease and 65% (56-75) for stroke. The percentage excess risks mediated by these three mediators did not differ significantly between Asian and western cohorts (North America, western Europe, Australia, and New Zealand). Both overweight (BMI ≥25 to <30 kg/m(2)) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m(2)) were associated with a significantly increased risk of coronary heart disease and stroke, compared with normal weight (BMI ≥20 to <25 kg/m(2)), with 50% (44-58) of the excess risk of overweight and 44% (41-48) of the excess risk of obesity for coronary heart disease mediated by the selected three mediators. The percentages for stroke were 98% (69-155) for overweight and 69% (64-77) for obesity. Interventions that reduce high blood pressure, cholesterol, and glucose might address about half of excess risk of coronary heart disease and three-quarters of excess risk of stroke associated with high BMI. Maintenance of optimum bodyweight is needed for the full benefits. US National Institute of Health, UK Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health Research Comprehensive Biomedical Research Centre at Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, Lown Scholars in Residence Program on cardiovascular disease prevention, and Harvard Global Health Institute Doctoral Research Grant. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Genomic Instability and Radiation Risk in Molecular Pathways to Colon Cancer

PubMed Central

Kaiser, Jan Christian; Meckbach, Reinhard; Jacob, Peter

2014-01-01

Colon cancer is caused by multiple genomic alterations which lead to genomic instability (GI). GI appears in molecular pathways of microsatellite instability (MSI) and chromosomal instability (CIN) with clinically observed case shares of about 15–20% and 80–85%. Radiation enhances the colon cancer risk by inducing GI, but little is known about different outcomes for MSI and CIN. Computer-based modelling can facilitate the understanding of the phenomena named above. Comprehensive biological models, which combine the two main molecular pathways to colon cancer, are fitted to incidence data of Japanese a-bomb survivors. The preferred model is selected according to statistical criteria and biological plausibility. Imprints of cell-based processes in the succession from adenoma to carcinoma are identified by the model from age dependences and secular trends of the incidence data. Model parameters show remarkable compliance with mutation rates and growth rates for adenoma, which has been reported over the last fifteen years. Model results suggest that CIN begins during fission of intestinal crypts. Chromosomal aberrations are generated at a markedly elevated rate which favors the accelerated growth of premalignant adenoma. Possibly driven by a trend of Westernization in the Japanese diet, incidence rates for the CIN pathway increased notably in subsequent birth cohorts, whereas rates pertaining to MSI remained constant. An imbalance between number of CIN and MSI cases began to emerge in the 1980s, whereas in previous decades the number of cases was almost equal. The CIN pathway exhibits a strong radio-sensitivity, probably more intensive in men. Among young birth cohorts of both sexes the excess absolute radiation risk related to CIN is larger by an order of magnitude compared to the MSI-related risk. Observance of pathway-specific risks improves the determination of the probability of causation for radiation-induced colon cancer in individual patients, if their exposure histories are known. PMID:25356998

Radiation Risk From Medical Imaging

PubMed Central

Lin, Eugene C.

2010-01-01

This review provides a practical overview of the excess cancer risks related to radiation from medical imaging. Primary care physicians should have a basic understanding of these risks. Because of recent attention to this issue, patients are more likely to express concerns over radiation risk. In addition, physicians can play a role in reducing radiation risk to their patients by considering these risks when making imaging referrals. This review provides a brief overview of the evidence pertaining to low-level radiation and excess cancer risks and addresses the radiation doses and risks from common medical imaging studies. Specific subsets of patients may be at greater risk from radiation exposure, and radiation risk should be considered carefully in these patients. Recent technical innovations have contributed to lowering the radiation dose from computed tomography, and the referring physician should be aware of these innovations in making imaging referrals. PMID:21123642

The Role of Androgen Excess in Metabolic Dysfunction in Women : Androgen Excess and Female Metabolic Dysfunction.

PubMed

Escobar-Morreale, Héctor F

2017-01-01

Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is characterized by the association of androgen excess with chronic oligoovulation and/or polycystic ovarian morphology, yet metabolic disorders and classic and nonclassic cardiovascular risk factors cluster in these women from very early in life. This chapter focuses on the mechanisms underlying the association of PCOS with metabolic dysfunction, focusing on the role of androgen excess on the development of visceral adiposity and adipose tissue dysfunction.

Blood pressure-lowering treatment based on cardiovascular risk: a meta-analysis of individual patient data.

PubMed

2014-08-16

We aimed to investigate whether the benefits of blood pressure-lowering drugs are proportional to baseline cardiovascular risk, to establish whether absolute risk could be used to inform treatment decisions for blood pressure-lowering therapy, as is recommended for lipid-lowering therapy. This meta-analysis included individual participant data from trials that randomly assigned patients to either blood pressure-lowering drugs or placebo, or to more intensive or less intensive blood pressure-lowering regimens. The primary outcome was total major cardiovascular events, consisting of stroke, heart attack, heart failure, or cardiovascular death. Participants were separated into four categories of baseline 5-year major cardiovascular risk using a risk prediction equation developed from the placebo groups of the included trials (<11%, 11-15%, 15-21%, >21%). 11 trials and 26 randomised groups met the inclusion criteria, and included 67,475 individuals, of whom 51,917 had available data for the calculation of the risk equations. 4167 (8%) had a cardiovascular event during a median of 4·0 years (IQR 3·4-4·4) of follow-up. The mean estimated baseline levels of 5-year cardiovascular risk for each of the four risk groups were 6·0% (SD 2·0), 12·1% (1·5), 17·7% (1·7), and 26·8% (5·4). In each consecutive higher risk group, blood pressure-lowering treatment reduced the risk of cardiovascular events relatively by 18% (95% CI 7-27), 15% (4-25), 13% (2-22), and 15% (5-24), respectively (p=0·30 for trend). However, in absolute terms, treating 1000 patients in each group with blood pressure-lowering treatment for 5 years would prevent 14 (95% CI 8-21), 20 (8-31), 24 (8-40), and 38 (16-61) cardiovascular events, respectively (p=0·04 for trend). Lowering blood pressure provides similar relative protection at all levels of baseline cardiovascular risk, but progressively greater absolute risk reductions as baseline risk increases. These results support the use of predicted baseline cardiovascular disease risk equations to inform blood pressure-lowering treatment decisions. None. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prognostic significance of peripheral monocyte count in patients with extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma.

PubMed

Huang, Jia-Jia; Li, Ya-Jun; Xia, Yi; Wang, Yu; Wei, Wen-Xiao; Zhu, Ying-Jie; Lin, Tong-Yu; Huang, Hui-Qiang; Jiang, Wen-Qi; Li, Zhi-Ming

2013-05-03

Extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma (ENKL) has heterogeneous clinical manifestations and prognosis. This study aims to evaluate the prognostic impact of absolute monocyte count (AMC) in ENKL, and provide some immunologically relevant information for better risk stratification in patients with ENKL. Retrospective data from 163 patients newly diagnosed with ENKL were analyzed. The absolute monocyte count (AMC) at diagnosis was analyzed as continuous and dichotomized variables. Independent prognostic factors of survival were determined by Cox regression analysis. The AMC at diagnosis were related to overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) in patients with ENKL. Multivariate analysis identified AMC as independent prognostic factors of survival, independent of International Prognostic Index (IPI) and Korean prognostic index (KPI). The prognostic index incorporating AMC and absolute lymphocyte count (ALC), another surrogate factor of immune status, could be used to stratify all 163 patients with ENKL into different prognostic groups. For patients who received chemotherapy followed by radiotherapy (102 cases), the three AMC/ALC index categories identified patients with significantly different survivals. When superimposed on IPI or KPI categories, the AMC/ALC index was better able to identify high-risk patients in the low-risk IPI or KPI category. The baseline peripheral monocyte count is shown to be an effective prognostic indicator of survival in ENKL patients. The prognostic index related to tumor microenvironment might be helpful to identify high-risk patients with ENKL.

Age-specific excess mortality patterns and transmissibility during the 1889-1890 influenza pandemic in Madrid, Spain.

PubMed

Ramiro, Diego; Garcia, Sara; Casado, Yolanda; Cilek, Laura; Chowell, Gerardo

2018-05-01

Although the 1889-1890 influenza pandemic was one of the most important epidemic events of the 19th century, little is known about the mortality impact of this pandemic based on detailed respiratory mortality data sets. We estimated excess mortality rates for the 1889-1890 pandemic in Madrid from high-resolution respiratory and all-cause individual-level mortality data retrieved from the Gazeta de Madrid, the Official Bulletin of the Spanish government. We also generated estimates of the reproduction number from the early growth phase of the pandemic. The main pandemic wave in Madrid was evident from respiratory and all-cause mortality rates during the winter of 1889-1890. Our estimates of excess mortality for this pandemic were 58.3 per 10,000 for all-cause mortality and 44.5 per 10,000 for respiratory mortality. Age-specific excess mortality rates displayed a J-shape pattern, with school children aged 5-14 years experiencing the lowest respiratory excess death rates (8.8 excess respiratory deaths per 10,000), whereas older populations aged greater than or equal to 70 years had the highest rates (367.9 per 10,000). Although seniors experienced the highest absolute excess death rates, the standardized mortality ratio was highest among young adults aged 15-24 years. The early growth phase of the pandemic displayed dynamics consistent with an exponentially growing transmission process. Using the generalized-growth method, we estimated the reproduction number in the range of 1.2-1.3 assuming a 3-day mean generation interval and of 1.3-1.5 assuming a 4-day mean generation interval. Our study adds to our understanding of the mortality impact and transmissibility of the 1889-1890 influenza pandemic using detailed individual-level mortality data sets. More quantitative studies are needed to quantify the variability of the mortality impact of this understudied pandemic at regional and global scales. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Quantitative aspects of radon daughter exposure and lung cancer in underground miners.

PubMed Central

Edling, C; Axelson, O

1983-01-01

Epidemiological studies have shown an excessive incidence of lung cancer in miners with exposure to radon daughters. The various risk estimates have ranged from six to 47 excess cases per 10(6) person years and working level month, but the effect of smoking has not been fully evaluated. The present study, among a group of iron ore miners, is an attempt to obtain quantitative information about the risk of lung cancer due to radon and its daughters among smoking and non-smoking miners. The results show a considerable risk for miners to develop lung cancer; even non-smoking miners seem to be at a rather high risk. An additive effect of smoking and exposure to radon daughters is indicated and an estimate of about 30-40 excess cases per 10(6) person years and working level month seems to apply on a life time basis to both smoking and non-smoking miners aged over 50. PMID:6830715

Cancer mortality among coke oven workers.

PubMed Central

Redmond, C K

1983-01-01

The OSHA standard for coke oven emissions, which went into effect in January 1977, sets a permissible exposure limit to coke oven emissions of 150 micrograms/m3 benzene-soluble fraction of total particulate matter (BSFTPM). Review of the epidemiologic evidence for the standard indicates an excess relative risk for lung cancer as high as 16-fold in topside coke oven workers with 15 years of exposure or more. There is also evidence for a consistent dose-response relationship in lung cancer mortality when duration and location of employment at the coke ovens are considered. Dose-response models fitted to these same data indicate that, while excess risks may still occur under the OSHA standard, the predicted levels of increased relative risk would be about 30-50% if a linear dose-response model is assumed and 3-7% if a quadratic model is assumed. Lung cancer mortality data for other steelworkers suggest the predicted excess risk has probably been somewhat overestimated, but lack of information on important confounding factors limits further dose-response analysis. PMID:6653539

Asthma risk and occupation as a respiratory therapist.

PubMed

Christiani, D C; Kern, D G

1993-09-01

In the modern hospital environment, many health care workers are exposed to hazardous substances. Among these hazards are respiratory sensitizers, irritants, and infectious agents. A previous cross-sectional study of Rhode Island respiratory therapists reported an excess risk of asthma after entry into that profession. Before the results of that study were published, we conducted a confirmatory mailed questionnaire survey of 2,086 Massachusetts respiratory therapists and 2,030 physical therapists and physical therapy assistants. Neither the survey questionnaire nor the accompanying cover letter revealed the focus of our investigation. A history of physician-diagnosed asthma was reported by 16% of respiratory therapists and 8% of control subjects. When analysis was restricted to those who developed asthma after entry into their profession, respiratory therapists still had a significant excess, 7.4 versus 2.8%. The odds ratio for respiratory therapy was 2.5 (95% Cl, 1.6 to 3.3) after adjustment for age, family history, atopic history, smoking, and gender. These results confirm the previous report of excess risk of asthma among respiratory therapists. This excess risk develops after entry into the profession and does not appear to be explained by bias or confounding. Efforts should be directed to identifying potential agents responsible for this form of occupational asthma.

Absolute Nuv magnitudes of Gaia DR1 astrometric stars and a search for hot companions in nearby systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Makarov, V. V.

2017-10-01

Accurate parallaxes from Gaia DR1 (TGAS) are combined with GALEX visual Nuv magnitudes to produce absolute Mnuv magnitudes and an ultraviolet HR diagram for a large sample of astrometric stars. A functional fit is derived of the lower envelope main sequence of the nearest 1403 stars (distance <40 pc), which should be reddening-free. Using this empirical fit, 50 nearby stars are selected with significant Nuv excess. These are predominantly late K and early M dwarfs, often associated with X-ray sources, and showing other manifestations of magnetic activity. The sample may include systems with hidden white dwarfs, stars younger than the Pleiades, or, most likely, tight interacting binaries of the BY Dra-type. A separate collection of 40 stars with precise trigonometric parallaxes and Nuv-G colors bluer than 2 mag is presented. It includes several known novae, white dwarfs, and binaries with hot subdwarf (sdOB) components, but most remain unexplored.

Two-Year Body Composition Analyses of Long-Lived GHR Null Mice

PubMed Central

List, Edward O.; Palmer, Amanda J.; Chung, Min-Yu; Wright-Piekarski, Jacob; Lubbers, Ellen; O'Connor, Patrick; Okada, Shigeru; Kopchick, John J.

2010-01-01

Growth hormone receptor gene–disrupted (GHR−/−) mice exhibit increased life span and adipose tissue mass. Although this obese phenotype has been reported extensively for young adult male GHR−/− mice, data for females and for other ages in either gender are lacking. Thus, the purpose of this study was to evaluate body composition longitudinally in both male and female GHR−/− mice. Results show that GHR−/− mice have a greater percent fat mass with no significant difference in absolute fat mass throughout life. Lean mass shows an opposite trend with percent lean mass not significantly different between genotypes but absolute mass reduced in GHR−/− mice. Differences in body composition are more pronounced in male than in female mice, and both genders of GHR−/− mice show specific enlargement of the subcutaneous adipose depot. Along with previously published data, these results suggest a consistent and intriguing protective effect of excess fat mass in the subcutaneous region. PMID:19901018

COMMENT: Comment on 'Evaluation of the local value of the Earth gravity field in the context of the new definition of the kilogram'

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Svitlov, S. M.

2010-06-01

A recent paper (Baumann et al 2009 Metrologia 46 178-86) presents a method to evaluate the free-fall acceleration at a desired point in space, as required for the watt balance experiment. The claimed uncertainty of their absolute gravity measurements is supported by two bilateral comparisons using two absolute gravimeters of the same type. This comment discusses the case where absolute gravity measurements are traceable to a key comparison reference value. Such an approach produces a more complete uncertainty budget and reduces the risk of the results of different watt balance experiments not being compatible.

Altered mental status in older adults with histamine2-receptor antagonists: a population-based study.

PubMed

Tawadrous, Davy; Dixon, Stephanie; Shariff, Salimah Z; Fleet, Jamie; Gandhi, Sonja; Jain, Arsh K; Weir, Matthew A; Gomes, Tara; Garg, Amit X

2014-10-01

Standard doses of histamine2-receptor antagonists (H2RAs) may induce altered mental status in older adults, especially in those with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Population-based cohort study of older adults who started a new H2RA between 2002 and 2011 was conducted. Ninety percent received the current standard H2RA dose in routine care. There was no significant difference in 27 baseline patient characteristics. The primary outcome was hospitalization with an urgent head computed tomography (CT) scan (proxy for altered mental status), and the secondary outcome was all-cause mortality also within 30days of a new H2RA prescription. Standard vs. low H2RA dose was associated with a higher risk of hospitalization with an urgent head CT scan (0.98% vs. 0.74%, absolute risk difference 0.24% [95% CI 0.11% to 0.36%], relative risk 1.33 [95% CI 1.12 to 1.58]). This risk was not modified by the presence of CKD (interaction P value=0.71). Standard vs. low H2RA dose was associated with a higher risk of mortality (1.07% vs.0.74%; absolute risk difference 0.34% [95% CI 0.20% to 0.46%], relative risk 1.46 [95% CI 1.23 to 1.73]). Compared to a lower dose, initiation of the current standard dose of H2RA in older adults is associated with a small absolute increase in the 30-day risk of altered mental status (using neuroimaging as a proxy), even in the absence of CKD. This risk may be avoided by initiating older adults on low doses of H2RAs for gastroesophogeal reflux disease, and increasing dosing as necessary for symptom control. Copyright © 2014 European Federation of Internal Medicine. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Absolute Risk of Venous Thrombosis after Air Travel: A Cohort Study of 8,755 Employees of International Organisations

PubMed Central

Kuipers, Saskia; Cannegieter, Suzanne C; Middeldorp, Saskia; Robyn, Luc; Büller, Harry R; Rosendaal, Frits R

2007-01-01

Background The risk of venous thrombosis is approximately 2- to 4-fold increased after air travel, but the absolute risk is unknown. The objective of this study was to assess the absolute risk of venous thrombosis after air travel. Methods and Findings We conducted a cohort study among employees of large international companies and organisations, who were followed between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2005. The occurrence of symptomatic venous thrombosis was linked to exposure to air travel, as assessed by travel records provided by the companies and organisations. A long-haul flight was defined as a flight of at least 4 h and participants were considered exposed for a postflight period of 8 wk. A total of 8,755 employees were followed during a total follow-up time of 38,910 person-years (PY). The total time employees were exposed to a long-haul flight was 6,872 PY. In the follow-up period, 53 thromboses occurred, 22 of which within 8 wk of a long-haul flight, yielding an incidence rate of 3.2/1,000 PY, as compared to 1.0/1,000 PY in individuals not exposed to air travel (incidence rate ratio 3.2, 95% confidence interval 1.8–5.6). This rate was equivalent to a risk of one event per 4,656 long-haul flights. The risk increased with exposure to more flights within a short time frame and with increasing duration of flights. The incidence was highest in the first 2 wk after travel and gradually decreased to baseline after 8 wk. The risk was particularly high in employees under age 30 y, women who used oral contraceptives, and individuals who were particularly short, tall, or overweight. Conclusions The risk of symptomatic venous thrombosis after air travel is moderately increased on average, and rises with increasing exposure and in high-risk groups. PMID:17896862

The absolute risk of venous thrombosis after air travel: a cohort study of 8,755 employees of international organisations.

PubMed

Kuipers, Saskia; Cannegieter, Suzanne C; Middeldorp, Saskia; Robyn, Luc; Büller, Harry R; Rosendaal, Frits R

2007-09-01

The risk of venous thrombosis is approximately 2- to 4-fold increased after air travel, but the absolute risk is unknown. The objective of this study was to assess the absolute risk of venous thrombosis after air travel. We conducted a cohort study among employees of large international companies and organisations, who were followed between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2005. The occurrence of symptomatic venous thrombosis was linked to exposure to air travel, as assessed by travel records provided by the companies and organisations. A long-haul flight was defined as a flight of at least 4 h and participants were considered exposed for a postflight period of 8 wk. A total of 8,755 employees were followed during a total follow-up time of 38,910 person-years (PY). The total time employees were exposed to a long-haul flight was 6,872 PY. In the follow-up period, 53 thromboses occurred, 22 of which within 8 wk of a long-haul flight, yielding an incidence rate of 3.2/1,000 PY, as compared to 1.0/1,000 PY in individuals not exposed to air travel (incidence rate ratio 3.2, 95% confidence interval 1.8-5.6). This rate was equivalent to a risk of one event per 4,656 long-haul flights. The risk increased with exposure to more flights within a short time frame and with increasing duration of flights. The incidence was highest in the first 2 wk after travel and gradually decreased to baseline after 8 wk. The risk was particularly high in employees under age 30 y, women who used oral contraceptives, and individuals who were particularly short, tall, or overweight. The risk of symptomatic venous thrombosis after air travel is moderately increased on average, and rises with increasing exposure and in high-risk groups.

The Herschel Multi-Tiered Extragalactic Survey: SPIRE-mm Photometric Redshifts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roseboom, I. G.; Ivison, R. J.; Greve, T. R.; Amblard, A.; Arumugam, V.; Auld, R.; Aussel, H.; Bethermin, M.; Blain, A.; Block, J.;

Evidence for Absolute Moral Opposition to Genetically Modified Food in the United States.

PubMed

Scott, Sydney E; Inbar, Yoel; Rozin, Paul

2016-05-01

Public opposition to genetic modification (GM) technology in the food domain is widespread (Frewer et al., 2013). In a survey of U.S. residents representative of the population on gender, age, and income, 64% opposed GM, and 71% of GM opponents (45% of the entire sample) were "absolutely" opposed-that is, they agreed that GM should be prohibited no matter the risks and benefits. "Absolutist" opponents were more disgust sensitive in general and more disgusted by the consumption of genetically modified food than were non-absolutist opponents or supporters. Furthermore, disgust predicted support for legal restrictions on genetically modified foods, even after controlling for explicit risk-benefit assessments. This research suggests that many opponents are evidence insensitive and will not be influenced by arguments about risks and benefits. © The Author(s) 2016.

Quantifying Unnecessary Normal Tissue Complication Risks due to Suboptimal Planning: A Secondary Study of RTOG 0126

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moore, Kevin L., E-mail: kevinmoore@ucsd.edu; Schmidt, Rachel; Moiseenko, Vitali

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to quantify the frequency and clinical severity of quality deficiencies in intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) planning in the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group 0126 protocol. Methods and Materials: A total of 219 IMRT patients from the high-dose arm (79.2 Gy) of RTOG 0126 were analyzed. To quantify plan quality, we used established knowledge-based methods for patient-specific dose-volume histogram (DVH) prediction of organs at risk and a Lyman-Kutcher-Burman (LKB) model for grade ≥2 rectal complications to convert DVHs into normal tissue complication probabilities (NTCPs). The LKB model was validated by fitting dose-response parameters relative tomore » observed toxicities. The 90th percentile (22 of 219) of plans with the lowest excess risk (difference between clinical and model-predicted NTCP) were used to create a model for the presumed best practices in the protocol (pDVH{sub 0126,top10%}). Applying the resultant model to the entire sample enabled comparisons between DVHs that patients could have received to DVHs they actually received. Excess risk quantified the clinical impact of suboptimal planning. Accuracy of pDVH predictions was validated by replanning 30 of 219 patients (13.7%), including equal numbers of presumed “high-quality,” “low-quality,” and randomly sampled plans. NTCP-predicted toxicities were compared to adverse events on protocol. Results: Existing models showed that bladder-sparing variations were less prevalent than rectum quality variations and that increased rectal sparing was not correlated with target metrics (dose received by 98% and 2% of the PTV, respectively). Observed toxicities were consistent with current LKB parameters. Converting DVH and pDVH{sub 0126,top10%} to rectal NTCPs, we observed 94 of 219 patients (42.9%) with ≥5% excess risk, 20 of 219 patients (9.1%) with ≥10% excess risk, and 2 of 219 patients (0.9%) with ≥15% excess risk. Replanning demonstrated the predicted NTCP reductions while maintaining the volume of the PTV receiving prescription dose. An equivalent sample of high-quality plans showed fewer toxicities than low-quality plans, 6 of 73 versus 10 of 73 respectively, although these differences were not significant (P=.21) due to insufficient statistical power in this retrospective study. Conclusions: Plan quality deficiencies in RTOG 0126 exposed patients to substantial excess risk for rectal complications.« less

Excess mortality due to indirect health effects of the 2011 triple disaster in Fukushima, Japan: a retrospective observational study.

PubMed

Morita, Tomohiro; Nomura, Shuhei; Tsubokura, Masaharu; Leppold, Claire; Gilmour, Stuart; Ochi, Sae; Ozaki, Akihiko; Shimada, Yuki; Yamamoto, Kana; Inoue, Manami; Kato, Shigeaki; Shibuya, Kenji; Kami, Masahiro

2017-10-01

Evidence on the indirect health impacts of disasters is limited. We assessed the excess mortality risk associated with the indirect health impacts of the 2011 triple disaster (earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster) in Fukushima, Japan. The mortality rates in Soma and Minamisoma cities in Fukushima from 2006 to 2015 were calculated using vital statistics and resident registrations. We investigated the excess mortality risk, defined as the increased mortality risk between postdisaster and predisaster after excluding direct deaths attributed to the physical force of the disaster. Multivariate Poisson regression models were used to estimate the relative risk (RR) of mortality after adjusting for city, age and year. There were 6163 and 6125 predisaster and postdisaster deaths, respectively. The postdisaster mortality risk was significantly higher in the first month following the disaster (March 2011) than in the same month during the predisaster period (March 2006-2010). RRs among men and women were 2.64 (95% CI 2.16 to 3.24) and 2.46 (95% CI 1.99 to 3.03), respectively, demonstrating excess mortality risk due to the indirect health effects of the disaster. Age-specific subgroup analyses revealed a significantly higher mortality risk in women aged ≥85 years in the third month of the disaster compared with predisaster baseline, with an RR (95% CI) of 1.73 (1.23 to 2.44). Indirect health impacts are most severe in the first month of the disaster. Early public health support, especially for the elderly, can be an important factor for reducing the indirect health effects of a disaster. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Autoimmune diseases in Adult Life after Childhood Cancer in Scandinavia (ALiCCS).

PubMed

Holmqvist, Anna Sällfors; Olsen, Jørgen H; Mellemkjaer, Lene; Garwicz, Stanislaw; Hjorth, Lars; Moëll, Christian; Månsson, Bengt; Tryggvadottir, Laufey; Hasle, Henrik; Winther, Jeanette Falck

2016-09-01

The pattern of autoimmune diseases in childhood cancer survivors has not been investigated previously. We estimated the risk for an autoimmune disease after childhood cancer in a large, population-based setting with outcome measures from comprehensive, nationwide health registries. From the national cancer registries of Denmark, Iceland and Sweden, we identified 20 361 1-year survivors of cancer diagnosed before the age of 20 between the start of cancer registration in the 1940s and 1950s through 2008; 125 794 comparison subjects, matched by age, gender and country, were selected from national population registers. Study subjects were linked to the national hospital registers. Standardised hospitalisation rate ratios (SHRRs) and absolute excess risks (AERs) were calculated. Childhood cancer survivors had a significantly increased SHRR of 1.4 (95% CI 1.3 to 1.5) of all autoimmune diseases combined, corresponding to an AER of 67 per 100 000 person-years. The SHRRs were significantly increased for autoimmune haemolytic anaemia (16.3), Addison's disease (13.9), polyarteritis nodosa (5.8), chronic rheumatic heart disease (4.5), localised scleroderma (3.6), idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura (3.4), Hashimoto's thyroiditis (3.1), pernicious anaemia (2.7), sarcoidosis (2.2), Sjögren's syndrome (2.0) and insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (1.6). The SHRRs for any autoimmune disease were significantly increased after leukaemia (SHRR 1.6), Hodgkin's lymphoma (1.6), renal tumours (1.6) and central nervous system neoplasms (1.4). Childhood cancer survivors are at increased risk for certain types of autoimmune diseases. These findings underscore the need for prolonged follow-up of these survivors. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Ambulatory blood pressure monitoring-derived short-term blood pressure variability is increased in Cushing's syndrome.

PubMed

Rebellato, Andrea; Grillo, Andrea; Dassie, Francesca; Sonino, Nicoletta; Maffei, Pietro; Martini, Chiara; Paoletta, Agostino; Fabris, Bruno; Carretta, Renzo; Fallo, Francesco

2014-11-01

Cushing's syndrome is associated with high cardiovascular morbility and mortality. Blood pressure (BP) variability within a 24-h period is increasingly recognized as an independent predictor of cardiovascular risk. The aim of our study was to investigate the short-term BP variability indices in Cushing's syndrome. Twenty-five patients with Cushing's syndrome (mean age 49 ± 13 years, 4 males; 21 Cushing's disease and 4 adrenal adenoma patients) underwent 24-h ambulatory BP monitoring (ABPM) and evaluation of cardiovascular risk factors. Cushing patients were divided into 8 normotensive (NOR-CUSH) and 17 hypertensive (HYP-CUSH) patients and were compared with 20 normotensive (NOR-CTR) and 20 hypertensive (HYP-CTR) age-, sex-, and BMI-matched control subjects. Short-term BP variability was derived from ABPM and calculated as the following: (1) standard deviation (SD) of 24-h, daytime, and nighttime BP; (2) 24-h weighted SD of BP; and (3) average real variability (ARV), i.e., the average of the absolute differences between consecutive BP measurements over 24 h. In comparison with controls, patients with Cushing's syndrome, either normotensive or hypertensive, had higher 24-h and daytime SD of BP, as well as higher 24-h weighted SD and ARV of BP (P = 0.03 to P < 0.0001). No difference in metabolic parameters was observed between NOR-CTR and NOR-CUSH or between HYP-CTR and HYP-CUSH subgroups. ABPM-derived short-term BP variability is increased in Cushing's syndrome, independent of BP elevation. It may represent an additional cardiovascular risk factor in this disease. The role of excess cortisol in BP variability has to be further clarified.

Methodology for the Absolute Configuration Determination of Epoxythymols Using the Constituents of Ageratina glabrata.

PubMed

Arreaga-González, Héctor M; Pardo-Novoa, Julio C; Del Río, Rosa E; Rodríguez-García, Gabriela; Torres-Valencia, J Martín; Manríquez-Torres, J Jesús; Cerda-García-Rojas, Carlos M; Joseph-Nathan, Pedro; Gómez-Hurtado, Mario A

2018-01-26

A methodology to determine the enantiomeric excess and the absolute configuration (AC) of natural epoxythymols was developed and tested using five constituents of Ageratina glabrata. The methodology is based on enantiomeric purity determination employing 1,1'-bi-2-naphthol (BINOL) as a chiral solvating agent combined with vibrational circular dichroism (VCD) measurements and calculations. The conformational searching included an extensive Monte Carlo protocol that considered the rotational barriers to cover the whole conformational spaces. (+)-(8S)-10-Benzoyloxy-6-hydroxy-8,9-epoxythymol isobutyrate (1), (+)-(8S)-10-acetoxy-6-methoxy-8,9-epoxythymol isobutyrate (4), and (+)-(8S)-10-benzoyloxy-6-methoxy-8,9-epoxythymol isobutyrate (5) were isolated as enantiomerically pure constituents, while 10-isobutyryloxy-8,9-epoxythymol isobutyrate (2) was obtained as a 75:25 (8S)/(8R) scalemic mixture. In the case of 10-benzoyloxy-8,9-epoxythymol isobutyrate (3), the BINOL methodology revealed a 56:44 scalemic mixture and the VCD measurement was beyond the limit of sensitivity since the enantiomeric excess is only 12%. The racemization process of epoxythymol derivatives was studied using compound 1 and allowed the clarification of some stereochemical aspects of epoxythymol derivatives since their ACs have been scarcely analyzed and a particular behavior in their specific rotations was detected. In more than 30 oxygenated thymol derivatives, including some epoxythymols, the reported specific rotation values fluctuate from -1.6 to +1.4 passing through zero, suggesting the presence of scalemic and close to racemic mixtures, since enantiomerically pure natural constituents showed positive or negative specific rotations greater than 10 units.

Moving closer to understanding the risks of living kidney donation.

PubMed

Steiner, Robert W

2016-01-01

Recent studies from the United States and Norway have suggested an unexpected 8- to 11-fold relative risk of ESRD after kidney donation, but a low long-term absolute risk. Abundant renal epidemiologic data predict that these studies have underestimated long-term risk. The 1% lifetime post-donation risk in the US study requires medical screening to predict ESRD in 96 of 100 candidates. This is particularly unlikely in the 30-35% of candidates under age 35, half of whose lifetime ESRD will occur after age 64. Many experts have attributed the increased relative risks in these studies to loss of GFR at donation, which ultimately means that high-normal pre-donation GFRs will reduce absolute post-donation risks. The 8- to 11-fold relative risks predict implausible risks of uninephrectomy in the general population, but lower estimates still result in very high risks for black donors. Young vs. older age, low vs. high-normal pre-donation GFRs, black race, and an increased relative risk of donation all predict highly variable individual risks, not a single "low" or "1%" risk as these studies suggest. A uniform, ethically defensible donor selection protocol would accept older donors with many minor medical abnormalities but protect from donation many currently acceptable younger, black, and/or low GFR candidates. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Low iron stores: a risk factor for excessive hair loss in non-menopausal women.

PubMed

Deloche, Claire; Bastien, Philippe; Chadoutaud, Stéphanie; Galan, Pilar; Bertrais, Sandrine; Hercberg, Serge; de Lacharrière, Olivier

2007-01-01

Iron deficiency has been suspected to represent one of the possible causes of excessive hair loss in women. The aim of our study was to assess this relationship in a very large population of 5110 women aged between 35 and 60 years. Hair loss was evaluated using a standardized questionnaire sent to all volunteers. The iron status was assessed by a serum ferritin assay carried out in each volunteer. Multivariate analysis allowed us to identify three categories: "absence of hair loss" (43%), "moderate hair loss" (48%) and "excessive hair loss" (9%). Among the women affected by excessive hair loss, a larger proportion of women (59%) had low iron stores (< 40 microg/L) compared to the remainder of the population (48%). Analysis of variance and logistic regression show that a low iron store represents a risk factor for hair loss in non-menopausal women.

Validation of a predictive model that identifies patients at high risk of developing febrile neutropaenia following chemotherapy for breast cancer.

PubMed

Jenkins, P; Scaife, J; Freeman, S

2012-07-01

We have previously developed a predictive model that identifies patients at increased risk of febrile neutropaenia (FN) following chemotherapy, based on pretreatment haematological indices. This study was designed to validate our earlier findings in a separate cohort of patients undergoing more myelosuppressive chemotherapy supported by growth factors. We conducted a retrospective analysis of 263 patients who had been treated with adjuvant docetaxel, adriamycin and cyclophosphamide (TAC) chemotherapy for breast cancer. All patients received prophylactic pegfilgrastim and the majority also received prophylactic antibiotics. Thirty-one patients (12%) developed FN. Using our previous model, patients in the highest risk group (pretreatment absolute neutrophil count≤3.1 10(9)/l and absolute lymphocyte count≤1.5 10(9)/l) comprised 8% of the total population and had a 33% risk of developing FN. Compared with the rest of the cohort, this group had a 3.4-fold increased risk of developing FN (P=0.001) and a 5.2-fold increased risk of cycle 1 FN (P<0.001). A simple model based on pretreatment differential white blood cell count can be applied to pegfilgrastim-supported patients to identify those who are at higher risk of FN.

How rapidly does the excess risk of lung cancer decline following quitting smoking? A quantitative review using the negative exponential model.

PubMed

Fry, John S; Lee, Peter N; Forey, Barbara A; Coombs, Katharine J

2013-10-01

The excess lung cancer risk from smoking declines with time quit, but the shape of the decline has never been precisely modelled, or meta-analyzed. From a database of studies of at least 100 cases, we extracted 106 blocks of RRs (from 85 studies) comparing current smokers, former smokers (by time quit) and never smokers. Corresponding pseudo-numbers of cases and controls (or at-risk) formed the data for fitting the negative exponential model. We estimated the half-life (H, time in years when the excess risk becomes half that for a continuing smoker) for each block, investigated model fit, and studied heterogeneity in H. We also conducted sensitivity analyses allowing for reverse causation, either ignoring short-term quitters (S1) or considering them smokers (S2). Model fit was poor ignoring reverse causation, but much improved for both sensitivity analyses. Estimates of H were similar for all three analyses. For the best-fitting analysis (S1), H was 9.93 (95% CI 9.31-10.60), but varied by sex (females 7.92, males 10.71), and age (<50years 6.98, 70+years 12.99). Given that reverse causation is taken account of, the model adequately describes the decline in excess risk. However, estimates of H may be biased by factors including misclassification of smoking status. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Alcohol Screening and Brief Intervention: A Potential Role in Cancer Prevention for Young Adults

PubMed Central

McKnight-Eily, Lela R.; Henley, S. Jane; Green, Patricia P.; Odom, Erika C.; Hungerford, Daniel W.

2017-01-01

Excessive or risky alcohol use is a preventable cause of significant morbidity and mortality in the U.S. and worldwide. Alcohol use is a common preventable cancer risk factor among young adults; it is associated with increased risk of developing at least six types of cancer. Alcohol consumed during early adulthood may pose a higher risk of female breast cancer than alcohol consumed later in life. Reducing alcohol use may help prevent cancer. Alcohol misuse screening and brief counseling or intervention (also called alcohol screening and brief intervention among other designations) is known to reduce excessive alcohol use, and the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force recommends that it be implemented for all adults aged ≥ 18 years in primary healthcare settings. Because the prevalence of excessive alcohol use, particularly binge drinking, peaks among young adults, this time of life may present a unique window of opportunity to talk about the cancer risk associated with alcohol use and how to reduce that risk by reducing excessive drinking or misuse. This article briefly describes alcohol screening and brief intervention, including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s recommended approach, and suggests a role for it in the context of cancer prevention. The article also briefly discusses how the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is working to make alcohol screening and brief intervention a routine element of health care in all primary care settings to identify and help young adults who drink too much. PMID:28818247

Excessive Exercise in Endurance Athletes: Is Atrial Fibrillation a Possible Consequence?

PubMed

Goodman, Jack M; Banks, Laura; Connelly, Kim A; Yan, Andrew; Backx, Peter H; Dorian, Paul

2018-05-29

Moderate physical activity levels are associated with increased longevity and lower risk of atrial fibrillation (AF). However, the relative risk of lone AF is 3-5 fold higher in intensive endurance-trained athletes compared to healthy adults. There is growing concern that 'excessive' endurance exercise may promote cardiac remodeling leading to long-term adverse consequences. The pathogenesis of exercise-induced AF is thought to arise from an interplay of multiple acute and chronic factors, including atrial enlargement, pro-fibrotic tendency, high vagal tone, and genotypic profile, which collectively promote adverse atrial remodeling. Clinical management of athletes with AF, while challenging, can be achieved using various strategies that may allow continued, safe exercise. Based on the overall risk-benefit evidence, it is premature to suggest 'excessive' exercise is unsafe or should be curtailed. Evidence-based assessment and treatment guidelines are required to ensure optimal and safe exercise among the growing number of endurance athletes with AF.

Community lifestyle characteristics and risk of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia in children.

PubMed

Alexander, F E; Ricketts, T J; McKinney, P A; Cartwright, R A

1990-12-15

High rates of leukaemia in children and young people have been associated with features of community isolation and population growth. Incidence data collected by two specialist registries were used to compare incidence rates at ward level with relevant ward characteristics derived from routine census and Ordnance Survey data for England and Wales. An excess risk of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) was found for wards which are farthest from large urban centres. The excess was greatest for wards of higher socioeconomic status and for children aged 1-7 years (the childhood peak), for which a two-fold excess was seen. These findings in general support the hypothesis that childhood leukaemia has an infectious aetiology.

Post-neonatal mortality in Norway 1969-95: a cause-specific analysis.

PubMed

Arntzen, Annett; Samuelsen, Sven Ove; Daltveit, Anne Kjersti; Stoltenberg, Camilla

2006-08-01

We recently reported increased social inequality for post-neonatal death. The aim of the present study was to investigate the association between socioeconomic status and cause-specific post-neonatal death. All 1,483,857 live births recorded in the Medical Birth Registry of Norway from 1969-95 with information on parents' education were included. During the post-neonatal period (from 28 to 364 days of life) 4,464 infants died. Differences between education groups were estimated as risk differences, relative risks, population attributable fractions, and relative index of inequality. The major causes of death were congenital conditions, sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS), and infections. Post-neonatal mortality declined from 3.2/1,000 in the 1970s to 1.9/1,000 in the 1990s, mainly due to reduced mortality from congenital conditions. The absolute risk for SIDS increased by 0.51/1,000 in the same period among infants whose mothers had low education, while it decreased by 0.56/1,000 for those whose mothers had high education. The relative risk for SIDS among infants whose mothers had low education increased from 1.02 in the 1970s to 2.39 in the 1980s and 5.63 in the 1990s. Among infants whose fathers were not recorded in the Birth Registry, the absolute risk of SIDS increased by 0.79/1,000 from the 1970s to the 1990s. Increased social inequality for post-neonatal death was primarily due to increases in the absolute and relative risks of SIDS among infants whose mothers have low education. Social inequality widened during the study period for SIDS and deaths caused by infections.

Cardiovascular disease prevention with a multidrug regimen in the developing world: a cost-effectiveness analysis

PubMed Central

Gaziano, Thomas A; Opie, Lionel H; Weinstein, Milton C

2008-01-01

Summary Background Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death, with 80% of cases occurring in developing countries. We therefore aimed to establish whether use of evidence-based multidrug regimens for patients at high risk for cardiovascular disease would be cost-effective in low-income and middle-income countries. Methods We used a Markov model to do a cost-effectiveness analysis with two combination regimens. For primary prevention, we used aspirin, a calcium-channel blocker, an angiotensin-converting-enzyme inhibitor, and a statin, and assessed them in four groups with different thresholds of absolute risks for cardiovascular disease. For secondary prevention, we assessed the same combination of drugs in one group, but substituted a β blocker for the calcium-channel blocker. To compare strategies, we report incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER), in US$ per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Findings We recorded that preventive strategies could result in a 2-year gain in life expectancy. Across six developing World Bank regions, primary prevention yielded ICERs of US$746–890/QALY gained for patients with a 10-year absolute risk of cardiovascular disease greater than 25%, and $1039–1221/QALY gained for those with an absolute risk greater than 5%. ICERs for secondary prevention ranged from $306/QALY to $388/QALY gained. Interpretation Regimens of aspirin, two blood-pressure drugs, and a statin could halve the risk of death from cardiovascular disease in high-risk patients. This approach is cost-effective according to WHO recommendations, and is robust across several estimates of drug efficacy and of treatment cost. Developing countries should encourage the use of these inexpensive drugs that are currently available for both primary and secondary prevention. PMID:16920473

Daily remote monitoring of implantable cardioverter-defibrillators: insights from the pooled patient-level data from three randomized controlled trials (IN-TIME, ECOST, TRUST).

PubMed

Hindricks, Gerhard; Varma, Niraj; Kacet, Salem; Lewalter, Thorsten; Søgaard, Peter; Guédon-Moreau, Laurence; Proff, Jochen; Gerds, Thomas A; Anker, Stefan D; Torp-Pedersen, Christian

2017-06-07

Remote monitoring of implantable cardioverter-defibrillators may improve clinical outcome. A recent meta-analysis of three randomized controlled trials (TRUST, ECOST, IN-TIME) using a specific remote monitoring system with daily transmissions [Biotronik Home Monitoring (HM)] demonstrated improved survival. We performed a patient-level analysis to verify this result with appropriate time-to-event statistics and to investigate further clinical endpoints. Individual data of the TRUST, ECOST, and IN-TIME patients were pooled to calculate absolute risks of endpoints at 1-year follow-up for HM vs. conventional follow-up. All-cause mortality analysis involved all three trials (2405 patients). Other endpoints involved two trials, ECOST and IN-TIME (1078 patients), in which an independent blinded endpoint committee adjudicated the underlying causes of hospitalizations and deaths. The absolute risk of death at 1 year was reduced by 1.9% in the HM group (95% CI: 0.1-3.8%; P = 0.037), equivalent to a risk ratio of 0.62. Also the combined endpoint of all-cause mortality or hospitalization for worsening heart failure (WHF) was significantly reduced (by 5.6%; P = 0.007; risk ratio 0.64). The composite endpoint of all-cause mortality or cardiovascular (CV) hospitalization tended to be reduced by a similar degree (4.1%; P = 0.13; risk ratio 0.85) but without statistical significance. In a pooled analysis of the three trials, HM reduced all-cause mortality and the composite endpoint of all-cause mortality or WHF hospitalization. The similar magnitudes of absolute risk reductions for WHF and CV endpoints suggest that the benefit of HM is driven by the prevention of heart failure exacerbation.

Heart failure, saxagliptin, and diabetes mellitus: observations from the SAVOR-TIMI 53 randomized trial.

PubMed

Scirica, Benjamin M; Braunwald, Eugene; Raz, Itamar; Cavender, Matthew A; Morrow, David A; Jarolim, Petr; Udell, Jacob A; Mosenzon, Ofri; Im, KyungAh; Umez-Eronini, Amarachi A; Pollack, Pia S; Hirshberg, Boaz; Frederich, Robert; Lewis, Basil S; McGuire, Darren K; Davidson, Jaime; Steg, Ph Gabriel; Bhatt, Deepak L

2014-10-28

Diabetes mellitus and heart failure frequently coexist. However, few diabetes mellitus trials have prospectively evaluated and adjudicated heart failure as an end point. A total of 16 492 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and a history of, or at risk of, cardiovascular events were randomized to saxagliptin or placebo (mean follow-up, 2.1 years). The primary end point was the composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or ischemic stroke. Hospitalization for heart failure was a predefined component of the secondary end point. Baseline N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide was measured in 12 301 patients. More patients treated with saxagliptin (289, 3.5%) were hospitalized for heart failure compared with placebo (228, 2.8%; hazard ratio, 1.27; 95% confidence intercal, 1.07-1.51; P=0.007). Corresponding rates at 12 months were 1.9% versus 1.3% (hazard ratio, 1.46; 95% confidence interval, 1.15-1.88; P=0.002), with no significant difference thereafter (time-varying interaction, P=0.017). Subjects at greatest risk of hospitalization for heart failure had previous heart failure, an estimated glomerular filtration rate ≤60 mL/min, or elevated baseline levels of N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide. There was no evidence of heterogeneity between N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide and saxagliptin (P for interaction=0.46), although the absolute risk excess for heart failure with saxagliptin was greatest in the highest N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide quartile (2.1%). Even in patients at high risk of hospitalization for heart failure, the risk of the primary and secondary end points were similar between treatment groups. In the context of balanced primary and secondary end points, saxagliptin treatment was associated with an increased risk or hospitalization for heart failure. This increase in risk was highest among patients with elevated levels of natriuretic peptides, previous heart failure, or chronic kidney disease. http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01107886. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Risk of Subsequent Neoplasms During the Fifth and Sixth Decades of Life in the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study Cohort.

PubMed

Turcotte, Lucie M; Whitton, John A; Friedman, Debra L; Hammond, Sue; Armstrong, Gregory T; Leisenring, Wendy; Robison, Leslie L; Neglia, Joseph P

2015-11-01

Survivors of childhood cancer have an increased risk for subsequent neoplasms (SNs), but the incidence beyond the age of 40 years and associations with therapeutic exposures have not been well described. Among 14,364 survivors of childhood cancer diagnosed between 1970 and 1986, 3,171 had an attained age of 40 years or older at the time of last contact. Cumulative incidence of SNs, standardized incidence ratios (SIRs), excess absolute risk of subsequent malignant neoplasms (SMNs), and relative risks (RRs) for SMNs and nonmelanoma skin cancers were calculated. In total, 679 SNs were diagnosed in patients age 40 years or older. These included 196 SMNs, 419 nonmelanoma skin cancers, 21 nonmalignant meningiomas, and 43 other benign neoplasms. At age 55 years, the cumulative incidence of new SNs and SMNs occurring after age 40 years was 34.6% (95% CI, 28.7 to 40.6) and 16.3% (95% CI, 11.7 to 20.9), respectively. Survivors were twice as likely as the general population to receive a diagnosis of SMN after age 40 years (SIR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.9 to 2.5). Among SMNs, risk was increased for breast cancer (SIR, 5.5; 95% CI, 4.5 to 6.7), renal cancer (SIR, 3.9; 95% CI, 2.0 to 7.5), soft tissue sarcoma (SIR, 2.6; 95% CI, 1.5 to 4.4), and thyroid cancer (SIR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.0 to 3.5). Female sex (RR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.3 to 2.6; P < .001) and therapeutic radiation exposure (RR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.4 to 3.3; P < .001) were associated with an increased for risk for SMN in multivariable analysis. Even after age 40 years, survivors of childhood cancer remain at increased risk for treatment-related SNs. These data suggest the need for life-long monitoring and should inform anticipatory guidance provided to survivors of childhood cancer. © 2015 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.

Risk of Subsequent Neoplasms During the Fifth and Sixth Decades of Life in the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study Cohort

PubMed Central

Turcotte, Lucie M.; Whitton, John A.; Friedman, Debra L.; Hammond, Sue; Armstrong, Gregory T.; Leisenring, Wendy; Robison, Leslie L.; Neglia, Joseph P.

2015-01-01

Purpose Survivors of childhood cancer have an increased risk for subsequent neoplasms (SNs), but the incidence beyond the age of 40 years and associations with therapeutic exposures have not been well described. Patients and Methods Among 14,364 survivors of childhood cancer diagnosed between 1970 and 1986, 3,171 had an attained age of 40 years or older at the time of last contact. Cumulative incidence of SNs, standardized incidence ratios (SIRs), excess absolute risk of subsequent malignant neoplasms (SMNs), and relative risks (RRs) for SMNs and nonmelanoma skin cancers were calculated. Results In total, 679 SNs were diagnosed in patients age 40 years or older. These included 196 SMNs, 419 nonmelanoma skin cancers, 21 nonmalignant meningiomas, and 43 other benign neoplasms. At age 55 years, the cumulative incidence of new SNs and SMNs occurring after age 40 years was 34.6% (95% CI, 28.7 to 40.6) and 16.3% (95% CI, 11.7 to 20.9), respectively. Survivors were twice as likely as the general population to receive a diagnosis of SMN after age 40 years (SIR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.9 to 2.5). Among SMNs, risk was increased for breast cancer (SIR, 5.5; 95% CI, 4.5 to 6.7), renal cancer (SIR, 3.9; 95% CI, 2.0 to 7.5), soft tissue sarcoma (SIR, 2.6; 95% CI, 1.5 to 4.4), and thyroid cancer (SIR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.0 to 3.5). Female sex (RR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.3 to 2.6; P < .001) and therapeutic radiation exposure (RR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.4 to 3.3; P < .001) were associated with an increased for risk for SMN in multivariable analysis. Conclusion Even after age 40 years, survivors of childhood cancer remain at increased risk for treatment-related SNs. These data suggest the need for life-long monitoring and should inform anticipatory guidance provided to survivors of childhood cancer. PMID:26261260

Validation of HPLC-ESI-MS/MS Protocol to Analyze EtG in Hair for Assessment of Chronic Excessive Alcohol Use in Thailand in Conjunction with AUDIT.

PubMed

Thananchai, Thiwaphorn; Junkuy, Anongphan; Kittirattanapaiboon, Phunnapa; Sribanditmongkol, Pongruk

2016-06-01

Hair analysis for chronic excessive alcohol (ethanol) use has focused on ethyl glucuronide (EtG), a minor metabolite of ethanol. Preferred methods have involved high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) combined with tandem mass spectrometry (MS/MS) in line with an electrospray ionization (ESI) source. EtG analysis in hair has not yet been introduced to Thailand To validate an in-house HPLC-ESI-MS/MS hair analysis protocol for EtG and to apply it to a field sample of alcohol drinkers to assess different risk levels of alcohol consumption as measured by the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT). Validation procedures followed guidelines of the US Food and Drug Administration, the European Medicines Agency, and the Scientific Working Group for Forensic Toxicology. One hundred twenty subjects reported consuming alcohol during a 3-month period prior to enrollment. After taking the Thai-language version of AUDIT, subjects were divided on the basis of test scores into low, medium, and high-risk groups for chronic excessive alcohol use. The protocol satisfied the international standards for selectivity, specificity, accuracy, precision, and calibration curve. There was no significant matrix effect. Limits of detection and quantification (LOD/LOQ) were set at 15 pg of EtG per mg of hair. The protocol was not able to detect EtG in low-risk subjects (n = 38). Detection rates for medium-risk (n = 42) and high-risk subjects (n = 40) were 14.3% and 85%, respectively. The median of EtG concentration between these two groups were significantly different. Sensitivity and specificity were both more than 90% when EtG concentrations of high-risk subjects were compared with the 30 pg/mg cutoff recommended by the Society of Hair Testing (SoHT) for diagnosing chronic excessive alcohol consumption, based on an average ethanol daily intake greater than 60 g. The in-house protocol for EtG analysis in hair was validated according to international standards. The protocol is a useful tool for evaluating risk for chronic excessive drinking as defined by AUDIT scores. It strongly predicted the highest level of risk, although it was inadequate for assessing lower levels of risk.

Idiosyncratic risk in the Dow Jones Eurostoxx50 Index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daly, Kevin; Vo, Vinh

2008-07-01

Recent evidence by Campbell et al. [J.Y. Campbell, M. Lettau B.G. Malkiel, Y. Xu, Have individual stocks become more volatile? An empirical exploration of idiosyncratic risk, The Journal of Finance (February) (2001)] shows an increase in firm-level volatility and a decline of the correlation among stock returns in the US. In relation to the Euro-Area stock markets, we find that both aggregate firm-level volatility and average stock market correlation have trended upwards. We estimate a linear model of the market risk-return relationship nested in an EGARCH(1, 1)-M model for conditional second moments. We then show that traditional estimates of the conditional risk-return relationship, that use ex-post excess-returns as the conditioning information set, lead to joint tests of the theoretical model (usually the ICAPM) and of the Efficient Market Hypothesis in its strong form. To overcome this problem we propose alternative measures of expected market risk based on implied volatility extracted from traded option prices and we discuss the conditions under which implied volatility depends solely on expected risk. We then regress market excess-returns on lagged market implied variance computed from implied market volatility to estimate the relationship between expected market excess-returns and expected market risk.We investigate whether, as predicted by the ICAPM, the expected market risk is the main factor in explaining the market risk premium and the latter is independent of aggregate idiosyncratic risk.

12 CFR 324.52 - Simple risk-weight approach (SRWA).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... greater than or equal to −1 (that is, between zero and −1), then E equals the absolute value of RVC. If...) Zero percent risk weight equity exposures. An equity exposure to a sovereign, the Bank for..., an MDB, and any other entity whose credit exposures receive a zero percent risk weight under § 324.32...

Trends in inequalities in premature mortality: a study of 3.2 million deaths in 13 European countries.

PubMed

Mackenbach, Johan P; Kulhánová, Ivana; Menvielle, Gwenn; Bopp, Matthias; Borrell, Carme; Costa, Giuseppe; Deboosere, Patrick; Esnaola, Santiago; Kalediene, Ramune; Kovacs, Katalin; Leinsalu, Mall; Martikainen, Pekka; Regidor, Enrique; Rodriguez-Sanz, Maica; Strand, Bjørn Heine; Hoffmann, Rasmus; Eikemo, Terje A; Östergren, Olof; Lundberg, Olle

2015-03-01

Over the last decades of the 20th century, a widening of the gap in death rates between upper and lower socioeconomic groups has been reported for many European countries. For most countries, it is unknown whether this widening has continued into the first decade of the 21st century. We collected and harmonised data on mortality by educational level among men and women aged 30-74 years in all countries with available data: Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, England and Wales, Belgium, France, Switzerland, Spain, Italy, Hungary, Lithuania and Estonia. Relative inequalities in premature mortality increased in most populations in the North, West and East of Europe, but not in the South. This was mostly due to smaller proportional reductions in mortality among the lower than the higher educated, but in the case of Lithuania and Estonia, mortality rose among the lower and declined among the higher educated. Mortality among the lower educated rose in many countries for conditions linked to smoking (lung cancer, women only) and excessive alcohol consumption (liver cirrhosis and external causes). In absolute terms, however, reductions in premature mortality were larger among the lower educated in many countries, mainly due to larger absolute reductions in mortality from cardiovascular disease and cancer (men only). Despite rising levels of education, population-attributable fractions of lower education for mortality rose in many countries. Relative inequalities in premature mortality have continued to rise in most European countries, and since the 1990s, the contrast between the South (with smaller inequalities) and the East (with larger inequalities) has become stronger. While the population impact of these inequalities has further increased, there are also some encouraging signs of larger absolute reductions in mortality among the lower educated in many countries. Reducing inequalities in mortality critically depends upon speeding up mortality declines among the lower educated, and countering mortality increases from conditions linked to smoking and excessive alcohol consumption such as lung cancer, liver cirrhosis and external causes. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Genetic Risk, Coronary Heart Disease Events, and the Clinical Benefit of Statin Therapy

PubMed Central

Smith, JG; Chasman, DI; Caulfield, M; Devlin, JJ; Nordio, F; Hyde, C; Cannon, CP; Sacks, F; Poulter, N; Sever, P; Ridker, PM; Braunwald, E; Melander, O

2015-01-01

Background Genetic variants have been associated with the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). We tested whether a composite of these variants could identify the risk of both incident as well as recurrent CHD events and distinguish individuals who derived greater clinical benefit from statin therapy. Methods A community-based cohort and four randomized controlled trials of both primary (JUPITER and ASCOT) and secondary (CARE and PROVE IT-TIMI 22) prevention with statin therapy totaling 48,421 individuals and 3,477 events were included in these analyses. We examined the association of a genetic risk score based on 27 genetic variants with incident or recurrent CHD, adjusting for established clinical predictors. We then investigated the relative and absolute risk reductions in CHD events with statin therapy stratified by genetic risk. Data from studies were combined using meta-analysis. Findings When individuals were divided into low (quintile 1), intermediate (quintiles 2-4), and high (quintile 5) genetic risk categories, a significant gradient of risk for incident or recurrent CHD was demonstrated with the multivariable-adjusted HRs (95% CI) for CHD for the intermediate and high genetic risk categories vs. low genetic risk category being 1.32 (1.20-1.46, P<0.0001) and 1.71 (1.54-1.91, P<0.0001), respectively. In terms of the benefit of statin therapy in the four randomized trials, there was a significant gradient of increasing relative risk reduction across the low, intermediate, and high genetic risk categories (13%, 29%, and 48%, P=0.0277). Similarly, greater absolute risk reductions were seen in those individuals in higher genetic risk categories (P=0.0101), resulting in an approximate three-fold gradient in the number needed to treat (NNT) in the primary prevention trials. Specifically, in the primary prevention trials, the NNT to prevent one MACE over 10 years for the low, intermediate, and high GRS individuals was 66, 42, and 25 in JUPITER and 57, 47, and 20 in ASCOT. Interpretation A genetic risk score identified individuals at increased risk for both incident and recurrent CHD events. Individuals with the highest burden of genetic risk derived the largest relative and absolute clinical benefit with statin therapy. PMID:25748612

A Reanalysis of Curvature in the Dose Response for Cancer and Modifications by Age at Exposure Following Radiation Therapy for Benign Disease

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Little, Mark P., E-mail: mark.little@nih.gov; Stovall, Marilyn; Smith, Susan A.

Purpose: To assess the shape of the dose response for various cancer endpoints and modifiers by age and time. Methods and Materials: Reanalysis of the US peptic ulcer data testing for heterogeneity of radiogenic risk by cancer endpoint (stomach, pancreas, lung, leukemia, all other). Results: There are statistically significant (P<.05) excess risks for all cancer and for lung cancer and borderline statistically significant risks for stomach cancer (P=.07), and leukemia (P=.06), with excess relative risks Gy{sup -1} of 0.024 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.011, 0.039), 0.559 (95% CI 0.221, 1.021), 0.042 (95% CI -0.002, 0.119), and 1.087 (95% CI -0.018,more » 4.925), respectively. There is statistically significant (P=.007) excess risk of pancreatic cancer when adjusted for dose-response curvature. General downward curvature is apparent in the dose response, statistically significant (P<.05) for all cancers, pancreatic cancer, and all other cancers (ie, other than stomach, pancreas, lung, leukemia). There are indications of reduction in relative risk with increasing age at exposure (for all cancers, pancreatic cancer), but no evidence for quadratic variations in relative risk with age at exposure. If a linear-exponential dose response is used, there is no significant heterogeneity in the dose response among the 5 endpoints considered or in the speed of variation of relative risk with age at exposure. The risks are generally consistent with those observed in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors and in groups of nuclear workers. Conclusions: There are excess risks for various malignancies in this data set. Generally there is a marked downward curvature in the dose response and significant reduction in relative risk with increasing age at exposure. The consistency of risks with those observed in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors and in groups of nuclear workers implies that there may be little sparing effect of fractionation of dose or low-dose-rate exposure.« less

Physical activity, obesity, weight change, and risk of atrial fibrillation: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study.

PubMed

Huxley, Rachel R; Misialek, Jeffrey R; Agarwal, Sunil K; Loehr, Laura R; Soliman, Elsayed Z; Chen, Lin Y; Alonso, Alvaro

2014-08-01

Physical activity (PA) has previously been suggested to attenuate the risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) conferred by excess body weight and weight gain. We prospectively examined the relationship between body size, weight change, and level of PA in a biracial cohort of middle-aged men and women. Baseline characteristics on risk factor levels were obtained on 14 219 participants from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study. AF incidence was ascertained from 1987 to 2009. Adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the associations between body mass index, waist circumference, relative weight change, and PA level with incident AF. During follow-up, there were 1775 cases of incident AF. Body mass index and waist circumference were positively associated with AF as was weight loss/gain of >5% initial body weight. An ideal level of PA had a small protective effect on AF risk and partially attenuated the risk of AF associated with excess weight in men but not women: compared with men with a normal body mass index, the risk of AF in obese men with an ideal, intermediate, and poor level of PA at baseline was increased by 37%, 129%, and 156% (Pinteraction=0.04). During follow-up, PA did not modify the association between weight gain and risk of AF. Obesity and extreme weight change are risk factors for incident AF, whereas being physically active is associated with a small reduction in risk. In men only, being physically active offset some, but not all, of the risk incurred with excess body weight. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Methodological Challenges in Research on Sexual Risk Behavior: I. Item Content, Scaling, and Data Analytical Options

PubMed Central

Schroder, Kerstin E. E.; Carey, Michael P.; Vanable, Peter A.

2008-01-01

Investigation of sexual behavior involves many challenges, including how to assess sexual behavior and how to analyze the resulting data. Sexual behavior can be assessed using absolute frequency measures (also known as “counts”) or with relative frequency measures (e.g., rating scales ranging from “never” to “always”). We discuss these two assessment approaches in the context of research on HIV risk behavior. We conclude that these two approaches yield non-redundant information and, more importantly, that only data yielding information about the absolute frequency of risk behavior have the potential to serve as valid indicators of HIV contraction risk. However, analyses of count data may be challenging due to non-normal distributions with many outliers. Therefore, we identify new and powerful data analytical solutions that have been developed recently to analyze count data, and discuss limitations of a commonly applied method (viz., ANCOVA using baseline scores as covariates). PMID:14534027

Performance of 2014 NICE defibrillator implantation guidelines in heart failure risk stratification.

PubMed

Cubbon, Richard M; Witte, Klaus K; Kearney, Lorraine C; Gierula, John; Byrom, Rowenna; Paton, Maria; Sengupta, Anshuman; Patel, Peysh A; Mn Walker, Andrew; Cairns, David A; Rajwani, Adil; Hall, Alistair S; Sapsford, Robert J; Kearney, Mark T

2016-05-15

Define the real-world performance of recently updated National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines (TA314) on implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) use in people with chronic heart failure. Multicentre prospective cohort study of 1026 patients with stable chronic heart failure, associated with left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) ≤45% recruited in cardiology outpatient departments of four UK hospitals. We assessed the capacity of TA314 to identify patients at increased risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD) or appropriate ICD shock. The overall risk of SCD or appropriate ICD shock was 2.1 events per 100 patient-years (95% CI 1.7 to 2.6). Patients meeting TA314 ICD criteria (31.1%) were 2.5-fold (95% CI 1.6 to 3.9) more likely to suffer SCD or appropriate ICD shock; they were also 1.5-fold (95% CI 1.1 to 2.2) more likely to die from non-cardiovascular causes and 1.6-fold (95% CI 1.1 to 2.3) more likely to die from progressive heart failure. Patients with diabetes not meeting TA314 criteria experienced comparable absolute risk of SCD or appropriate ICD shock to patients without diabetes who met TA314 criteria. Patients with ischaemic cardiomyopathy not meeting TA314 criteria experienced comparable absolute risk of SCD or appropriate ICD shock to patients with non-ischaemic cardiomyopathy who met TA314 criteria. TA314 can identify patients with reduced LVEF who are at increased relative risk of sudden death. Clinicians should also consider clinical context and the absolute risk of SCD when advising patients about the potential risks and benefits of ICD therapy. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Predicting 10-Year Risk of Fatal Cardiovascular Disease in Germany: An Update Based on the SCORE-Deutschland Risk Charts

PubMed Central

Rücker, Viktoria; Keil, Ulrich; Fitzgerald, Anthony P; Malzahn, Uwe; Prugger, Christof; Ertl, Georg; Heuschmann, Peter U; Neuhauser, Hannelore

2016-01-01

Estimation of absolute risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), preferably with population-specific risk charts, has become a cornerstone of CVD primary prevention. Regular recalibration of risk charts may be necessary due to decreasing CVD rates and CVD risk factor levels. The SCORE risk charts for fatal CVD risk assessment were first calibrated for Germany with 1998 risk factor level data and 1999 mortality statistics. We present an update of these risk charts based on the SCORE methodology including estimates of relative risks from SCORE, risk factor levels from the German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Adults 2008–11 (DEGS1) and official mortality statistics from 2012. Competing risks methods were applied and estimates were independently validated. Updated risk charts were calculated based on cholesterol, smoking, systolic blood pressure risk factor levels, sex and 5-year age-groups. The absolute 10-year risk estimates of fatal CVD were lower according to the updated risk charts compared to the first calibration for Germany. In a nationwide sample of 3062 adults aged 40–65 years free of major CVD from DEGS1, the mean 10-year risk of fatal CVD estimated by the updated charts was lower by 29% and the estimated proportion of high risk people (10-year risk > = 5%) by 50% compared to the older risk charts. This recalibration shows a need for regular updates of risk charts according to changes in mortality and risk factor levels in order to sustain the identification of people with a high CVD risk. PMID:27612145

Emerging tobacco hazards in China: 1. Retrospective proportional mortality study of one million deaths

PubMed Central

Liu, Bo-Qi; Peto, Richard; Chen, Zheng-Ming; Boreham, Jillian; Wu, Ya-Ping; Li, Jun-Yao; Campbell, T Colin; Chen, Jun-Shi

1998-01-01

Objective To assess the hazards at an early phase of the growing epidemic of deaths from tobacco in China. Design Smoking habits before 1980 (obtained from family or other informants) of 0.7 million adults who had died of neoplastic, respiratory, or vascular causes were compared with those of a reference group of 0.2 million who had died of other causes. Setting 24 urban and 74 rural areas of China. Subjects One million people who had died during 1986-8 and whose families could be interviewed. Main outcome measures Tobacco attributable mortality in middle or old age from neoplastic, respiratory, or vascular disease. Results Among male smokers aged 35-69 there was a 51% (SE 2) excess of neoplastic deaths, a 31% (2) excess of respiratory deaths, and a 15% (2) excess of vascular deaths. All three excesses were significant (P<0.0001). Among male smokers aged ⩾70 there was a 39% (3) excess of neoplastic deaths, a 54% (2) excess of respiratory deaths, and a 6% (2) excess of vascular deaths. Fewer women smoked, but those who did had tobacco attributable risks of lung cancer and respiratory disease about the same as men. For both sexes, the lung cancer rates at ages 35-69 were about three times as great in smokers as in non-smokers, but because the rates among non-smokers in different parts of China varied widely the absolute excesses of lung cancer in smokers also varied. Of all deaths attributed to tobacco, 45% were due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and 15% to lung cancer; oesophageal cancer, stomach cancer, liver cancer, tuberculosis, stroke, and ischaemic heart disease each caused 5-8%. Tobacco caused about 0.6 million Chinese deaths in 1990 (0.5 million men). This will rise to 0.8 million in 2000 (0.4 million at ages 35-69) or to more if the tobacco attributed fractions increase. Conclusions At current age specific death rates in smokers and non-smokers one in four smokers would be killed by tobacco, but as the epidemic grows this proportion will roughly double. If current smoking uptake rates persist in China (where about two thirds of men but few women become smokers) tobacco will kill about 100 million of the 0.3 billion males now aged 0-29, with half these deaths in middle age and half in old age. Key messagesOf the Chinese deaths now being caused by tobacco, 45% are from chronic lung disease, 15% from lung cancer, and 5-8% from each of oesophageal cancer, stomach cancer, liver cancer, stroke, ischaemic heart disease, and tuberculosisTobacco now causes 13% (and will probably eventually cause about 33%) of deaths in men but only 3% (and perhaps eventually about 1%) of deaths in women as the proportion of young women who smoke has become smallTwo thirds of men now become smokers before age 25; few give up, and about half of those who persist will be killed by tobacco in middle or old ageIf present smoking patterns continue about 100 million of the 0.3 billion Chinese males now aged 0-29 will eventually be killed by tobaccoTobacco caused 0.6 million deaths in 1990 and will cause at least 0.8 million in 2000 (0.7 million in men) and about 3 million a year by the middle of the century on the basis of current smoking patterns PMID:9822393

Excessive bleeding predictors after cardiac surgery in adults: integrative review.

PubMed

Lopes, Camila Takao; Dos Santos, Talita Raquel; Brunori, Evelise Helena Fadini Reis; Moorhead, Sue A; Lopes, Juliana de Lima; Barros, Alba Lucia Bottura Leite de

2015-11-01

To integrate literature data on the predictors of excessive bleeding after cardiac surgery in adults. Perioperative nursing care requires awareness of the risk factors for excessive bleeding after cardiac surgery to assure vigilance prioritising and early correction of those that are modifiable. Integrative literature review. Articles were searched in seven databases. Seventeen studies investigating predictive factors for excessive bleeding after open-heart surgery from 2004-2014 were included. Predictors of excessive bleeding after cardiac surgery were: Patient-related: male gender, higher preoperative haemoglobin levels, lower body mass index, diabetes mellitus, impaired left ventricular function, lower amount of prebypass thrombin generation, lower preoperative platelet counts, decreased preoperative platelet aggregation, preoperative platelet inhibition level >20%, preoperative thrombocytopenia and lower preoperative fibrinogen concentration. Procedure-related: the operating surgeon, coronary artery bypass surgery with three or more bypasses, use of the internal mammary artery, duration of surgery, increased cross-clamp time, increased cardiopulmonary bypass time, lower intraoperative core body temperature and bypass-induced haemostatic disorders. Postoperative: fibrinogen levels and metabolic acidosis. Patient-related, procedure-related and postoperative predictors of excessive bleeding after cardiac surgery were identified. The predictors summarised in this review can be used for risk stratification of excessive bleeding after cardiac surgery. Assessment, documentation and case reporting can be guided by awareness of these factors, so that postoperative vigilance can be prioritised. Timely identification and correction of the modifiable factors can be facilitated. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Eating habits of preschool children and the risk of obesity, insulin resistance and metabolic syndrome in adults.

PubMed

Kostecka, Małgorzata

2014-01-01

Background & Objective : Nutrient excess and nutrient deficiency in the diets of preschool children can lead to permanent modification of metabolic pathways and increased risk of diet-dependent diseases in adults. Children are most susceptible to the adverse consequences of bad eating habits.The objective of this study was to evaluate the eating habits and the diets of preschool children as risk factors for excessive weight, obesity, insulin resistance and the metabolic syndrome. Methods : The study was conducted on 350 randomly selected preschool children attending kindergartens in south-eastern Poland. Three-day dietary recalls were processed and evaluated in the Dieta 5 application. Results : The analyzed diets were characterized by low diversity and a high share of processed foods, such as pate, sausages, ketchup, mayonnaise, fried meat, French fries and fast-food. The dietary content of vegetables, raw fruit, dairy products and whole grain products was alarmingly low. Conclusions : Diets characterized by excessive energy value and nutritional deficiency can lead to health problems. In most cases, excessive weight gain in children can be blamed on parents and caretakers who are not aware of the health consequences of high-calorie foods rich in fats and sugar.

Excessive daytime sleepiness and subsequent development of Parkinson disease.

PubMed

Abbott, R D; Ross, G W; White, L R; Tanner, C M; Masaki, K H; Nelson, J S; Curb, J D; Petrovitch, H

2005-11-08

To determine if excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS) can predate future Parkinson disease (PD). EDS was assessed in 3,078 men aged 71 to 93 years in the Honolulu-Asia Aging Study from 1991 to 1993. All were free of prevalent PD and dementia. Follow-up for incident PD was based on three repeat neurologic assessments from 1994 to 2001. During the course of follow-up, 43 men developed PD (19.9/10,000 person-years). After age adjustment, there was more than a threefold excess in the risk of PD in men with EDS vs men without EDS (55.3 vs 17.0/10,000 person-years; odds ratio [OR] = 3.3; 95% CI = 1.4 to 7.0; p = 0.004). Additional adjustment for insomnia, cognitive function, depressed mood, midlife cigarette smoking and coffee drinking, and other factors failed to alter the association between EDS and PD (OR = 2.8; 95% CI = 1.1 to 6.4; p = 0.014). Other sleep related features such as insomnia, daytime napping, early morning grogginess, and frequent nocturnal awakening showed little relation with the risk of PD. Excessive daytime sleepiness may be associated with an increased risk of developing Parkinson disease.

Cancer in persons working in dry cleaning in the Nordic countries.

PubMed

Lynge, Elsebeth; Andersen, Aage; Rylander, Lars; Tinnerberg, Håkan; Lindbohm, Marja-Liisa; Pukkala, Eero; Romundstad, Pål; Jensen, Per; Clausen, Lene Bjørk; Johansen, Kristina

2006-02-01

U.S. studies have reported an increased risk of esophageal and some other cancers in dry cleaners exposed to tetrachloroethylene. We investigated whether the U.S. findings could be reproduced in the Nordic countries using a series of case-control studies nested in cohorts of laundry and dry-cleaning workers identified from the 1970 censuses in Denmark, Norway, Sweden, and Finland. Dry-cleaning work in the Nordic countries during the period when tetrachloroethylene was the dominant solvent was not associated with an increased risk of esophageal cancer [rate ratio (RR) = 0.76; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.34-1.69], but our study was hampered by some unclassifiable cases. The risks of cancer of the gastric cardia, liver, pancreas, and kidney and non-Hodgkin lymphoma were not significantly increased. Assistants in dry-cleaning shops had a borderline significant excess risk of cervical cancer not found in women directly involved in dry cleaning. We found an excess risk of bladder cancer (RR = 1.44; 95% CI, 1.07-1.93) not associated with length of employment. The finding of no excess risk of esophageal cancer in Nordic dry cleaners differs from U.S. findings. Chance, differences in level of exposure to tetrachloroethylene, and confounding may explain the findings. The overall evidence on bladder cancer in dry cleaners is equivocal.

Exposure to diesel and gasoline engine emissions and the risk of lung cancer.

PubMed

Parent, Marie-Elise; Rousseau, Marie-Claude; Boffetta, Paolo; Cohen, Aaron; Siemiatycki, Jack

2007-01-01

Pollution from motor vehicles constitutes a major environmental health problem. The present paper describes associations between diesel and gasoline engine emissions and lung cancer, as evidenced in a 1979-1985 population-based case-control study in Montreal, Canada. Cases were 857 male lung cancer patients. Controls were 533 population controls and 1,349 patients with other cancer types. Subjects were interviewed to obtain a detailed lifetime job history and relevant data on potential confounders. Industrial hygienists translated each job description into indices of exposure to several agents, including engine emissions. There was no evidence of excess risks of lung cancer with exposure to gasoline exhaust. For diesel engine emissions, results differed by control group. When cancer controls were considered, there was no excess risk. When population controls were studied, the odds ratios, after adjustments for potential confounders, were 1.2 (95% confidence interval: 0.8, 1.8) for any exposure and 1.6 (95% confidence interval: 0.9, 2.8) for substantial exposure. Confidence intervals between risk estimates derived from the two control groups overlapped considerably. These results provide some limited support for the hypothesis of an excess lung cancer risk due to diesel exhaust but no support for an increase in risk due to gasoline exhaust.

Myocardial infarction risk and psychosocial work environment: an analysis of the male Swedish working force.

PubMed

Alfredsson, L; Karasek, R; Theorell, T

1982-01-01

The project was designed to test the assumption that certain psychosocial characteristics of occupational groups are associated with elevated myocardial infarction risk. All cases of myocardial infarction below the age of 65 in men living in the region of greater Stockholm during the years 1974-1976 were identified (deaths as well as survivals) in the official registries of hospitalizations and deaths. For each case two controls without infarction (in younger ages four) matched for age, area of residence and sex were selected randomly from the parish registries. For each case and control (n = 334 and 882, respectively) information was available regarding occupation. The psychosocial characteristics of each one of the 118 occupations were recorded by means of a nation wide interview survey (3876 working men) in 1977. Relative age-adjusted risks of developing a myocardial infarction were calculated for occupations in which many vs occupations in which few subjects reported a given characteristic (50% with most vs 50% with least). Shift work and monotony were associated with significant excess risk. Hectic work was not associated with excess risk by itself but in combination with variables associated with low decision latitude and/or few possibilities for growth it was associated with significant excess risk.

Factors influencing histologic confirmation of high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion cytology.

PubMed

Castle, Philip E; Cox, J Thomas; Schiffman, Mark; Wheeler, Cosette M; Solomon, Diane

2008-09-01

To examine the predictors of histologic confirmation of high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (HSIL) cytology occurring in follow-up of young women originally referred into a trial because of less severe cytology. We used enrollment HSIL cytology (N=411) as read by clinical center pathologists for women participating in the ASCUS-LSIL Triage Study (ALTS). The primary outcome was histologic cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) grade 3 and early cancer (n=195; 191 CIN 3 and four cancers) as diagnosed by the Pathology Quality Control Group during the 2-year duration of ALTS. The 2-year absolute risk of CIN 3 or worse after an HSIL cytology was 47.4% (95% confidence interval 42.5-52.4%). The 2-year absolute risk of CIN 3 or worse was lowest (14.3%) for women who were human papillomavirus (HPV)-16-negative, had colposcopic impression of less than low-grade, and whose HSIL cytology as called by the clinical center was not also called HSIL or equivocal HSIL cytology by the Pathology Quality Control Group. The 2-year absolute risk of CIN 3 or worse was highest (82.4%) for women who were HPV16-positive, had colposcopic impression of low-grade or worse, and whose HSIL cytology also was called HSIL or equivocal HSIL cytology by the Pathology Quality Control Group. Histologic confirmation of precancer among young women with HSIL cytology was more likely when other risk factors (eg, HPV16) for cervical precancer were present.

Prognostic significance of peripheral monocyte count in patients with extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma (ENKL) has heterogeneous clinical manifestations and prognosis. This study aims to evaluate the prognostic impact of absolute monocyte count (AMC) in ENKL, and provide some immunologically relevant information for better risk stratification in patients with ENKL. Methods Retrospective data from 163 patients newly diagnosed with ENKL were analyzed. The absolute monocyte count (AMC) at diagnosis was analyzed as continuous and dichotomized variables. Independent prognostic factors of survival were determined by Cox regression analysis. Results The AMC at diagnosis were related to overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) in patients with ENKL. Multivariate analysis identified AMC as independent prognostic factors of survival, independent of International Prognostic Index (IPI) and Korean prognostic index (KPI). The prognostic index incorporating AMC and absolute lymphocyte count (ALC), another surrogate factor of immune status, could be used to stratify all 163 patients with ENKL into different prognostic groups. For patients who received chemotherapy followed by radiotherapy (102 cases), the three AMC/ALC index categories identified patients with significantly different survivals. When superimposed on IPI or KPI categories, the AMC/ALC index was better able to identify high-risk patients in the low-risk IPI or KPI category. Conclusion The baseline peripheral monocyte count is shown to be an effective prognostic indicator of survival in ENKL patients. The prognostic index related to tumor microenvironment might be helpful to identify high-risk patients with ENKL. PMID:23638998

An absolute scale for measuring the utility of money

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, P. J.

2010-07-01

Measurement of the utility of money is essential in the insurance industry, for prioritising public spending schemes and for the evaluation of decisions on protection systems in high-hazard industries. Up to this time, however, there has been no universally agreed measure for the utility of money, with many utility functions being in common use. In this paper, we shall derive a single family of utility functions, which have risk-aversion as the only free parameter. The fact that they return a utility of zero at their low, reference datum, either the utility of no money or of one unit of money, irrespective of the value of risk-aversion used, qualifies them to be regarded as absolute scales for the utility of money. Evidence of validation for the concept will be offered based on inferential measurements of risk-aversion, using diverse measurement data.

Lung cancer risk among workers in the construction industry: results from two case-control studies in Montreal.

PubMed

Lacourt, Aude; Pintos, Javier; Lavoué, Jérôme; Richardson, Lesley; Siemiatycki, Jack

2015-09-22

Given the large number of workers in the construction industry, it is important to derive accurate and valid estimates of cancer risk, and in particular lung cancer risk. In most previous studies, risks among construction workers were compared with general populations including blue and white collar workers. The main objectives of this study were to assess whether construction workers experience excess lung cancer risk, and whether exposure to selected construction industry exposures carries excess risks. We wished to address these objectives within the sub-population of blue collar workers. Two case-control studies were conducted in Montreal. Combined, they included 1593 lung cancer cases and 1427 controls, of whom 1304 cases and 1081 controls had been blue collar workers. Detailed lifetime job histories were obtained and translated by experts into histories of exposure to chemical agents. The two key analyses were to estimate odds ratio (OR) estimates of lung cancer risk: a) for all blue-collar construction workers compared with other blue-collar workers, and b) for construction workers exposed to each of 20 exposure agents found in the construction industry compared with construction workers unexposed to those agents. All analyses were conducted using unconditional logistic regression adjusted for socio-demographic factors and smoking history. The OR for all construction workers combined was 1.11 (95 % CI: 0.90-1.38), based on 381 blue collar construction workers. Analyses of specific exposures were hampered by small numbers and imprecise estimates. While none of 20 occupational agents examined was significantly associated with lung cancer, the following agents manifested non-significantly elevated ORs: asbestos, silica, Portland cement, soil dust, calcium oxide and calcium sulfate. Compared with other blue collar workers, there was only a slight increased risk of lung cancer for subjects who ever held an occupation in the construction industry. The analyses of agents within the construction industry produced imprecise estimates of risk, but nevertheless pointed to some plausible associations. Excess risks for asbestos and silica were in line with previous knowledge. The possible excess risks with the other inorganic dusts require further corroboration.

Understanding and Communicating Medical Risks for Living Kidney Donors: A Matter of Perspective

PubMed Central

Lentine, Krista L.

2017-01-01

Communicating the current knowledge of medical outcomes after live kidney donation necessary to support donor candidates in well informed decision-making requires grounding in perspectives of comparison. Baseline risk (without donating), risk attributable to donation, and absolute risk (after donating) need to be considered. Severe perioperative complications and death are rare, but vary by demographic, clinical, and procedure factors. Innovative capture of “healthy” controls designed to simulate donor selection processes has identified higher risk of ESRD attributable to donation in two studies; importantly, however, the absolute 15-year ESRD incidence in donors remains very low (0.3%). In the first decade after donation, the risk of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular events is no higher than in healthy nondonors. Pregnancies in donors may incur attributable risk of gestational hypertension or preeclampsia (11% versus 5% incidence in one study). A modest rise in uric acid levels beginning early after donation, and a small (1.4%) increase in the 8-year incidence of gout, have also been reported in comparisons to healthy nondonors. As in the general population, postdonation outcomes vary by race, sex, and age. Efforts to improve the counseling and selection of living donors should focus on developing tools for tailored risk prediction according to donor characteristics, and ideally, compared with similar healthy nondonors. PMID:27591246

Dietary carbohydrates and cardiovascular disease risk factors in the Framingham Offspring Cohort

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Evidence from observational studies has suggested that carbohydrate quality rather than absolute intake is associated with greater risk of chronic diseases. The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between carbohydrate intake and dietary glycemic index and several cardiovascular disease...

Nanocarbon condensation in detonation

DOE PAGES

Bastea, Sorin

2017-02-08

We analyze the definition of the Gibbs free energy of a nanoparticle in a reactive fluid environment, and propose an approach for predicting the size of carbon nanoparticles produced by the detonation of carbon-rich explosives that regards their condensation as a nucleation process and takes into account absolute entropy effects of the cluster population. The results are consistent with experimental observations and indicate that such entropy considerations are important for determining chemical equilibrium states in energetic materials that contain an excess of carbon. The analysis may be useful for other applications that deal with the nucleation of nanoparticles under reactivemore » conditions.« less

Modeling number of claims and prediction of total claim amount

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Acar, Aslıhan Şentürk; Karabey, Uǧur

2017-07-01

In this study we focus on annual number of claims of a private health insurance data set which belongs to a local insurance company in Turkey. In addition to Poisson model and negative binomial model, zero-inflated Poisson model and zero-inflated negative binomial model are used to model the number of claims in order to take into account excess zeros. To investigate the impact of different distributional assumptions for the number of claims on the prediction of total claim amount, predictive performances of candidate models are compared by using root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) criteria.

New results from RENO & prospects with RENO-50

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joo, K. K.

2017-09-01

This paper briefly describes recent progress of RENO and next generation future prospect of the reactor neutrino oscillation experiment, RENO-50. Recently the RENO experiment has updated its latest value on sin22θ 13 and provided new results on 5 MeV excess, Δm2 ee, θ 13 with n-H analysis, absolute antineutrino flux measurement, and sterile neutrino search. It gives rich programs of neutrino properties, detector development, nuclear monitoring and application. Using reactor neutrinos, the future RENO-50 experiment will search for more precise measurement of θ 12, Δm 2 12 and mass hierarchy.

Nanocarbon condensation in detonation

PubMed Central

Bastea, Sorin

2017-01-01

We analyze the definition of the Gibbs free energy of a nanoparticle in a reactive fluid environment, and propose an approach for predicting the size of carbon nanoparticles produced by the detonation of carbon-rich explosives that regards their condensation as a nucleation process and takes into account absolute entropy effects of the cluster population. The results are consistent with experimental observations and indicate that such entropy considerations are important for determining chemical equilibrium states in energetic materials that contain an excess of carbon. The analysis may be useful for other applications that deal with the nucleation of nanoparticles under reactive conditions. PMID:28176827

5'-nucleotidase

MedlinePlus

... Use of a liver-damaging drug Risks Slight risks from having blood drawn may include: Excessive bleeding Fainting or feeling lightheaded Hematoma (blood accumulating under the skin) Infection ( ...

"Booze is the main factor that got me where I am today": alcohol use and HIV risk for MSM in rural South Africa.

PubMed

Daniels, Joseph; Struthers, Helen; Lane, Tim; Maleke, Kabelo; McIntyre, James; Coates, Tom

2018-05-28

Excessive alcohol consumption has been shown to increase HIV risk for men who have sex with men (MSM) and compromise HIV prevention behaviors. However, there is limited contextual understanding of alcohol use for MSM in rural sub-Saharan African settings, which can inform and direct HIV interventions. Applying an adaptation of PhotoVoice, we worked with 35 HIV-positive MSM who created photo-essays about alcohol and HIV in Mpumalanga. A semi-structured protocol was used in focus group discussions that were audio-recorded, translated and transcribed. Transcript data and visual data of 24 photo-essays were analyzed using a constant comparison approach. We found that participants used alcohol to build and sustain social networks, meet sexual partners, and enhance sexual experience. Excessive alcohol use was common, which was associated with increased HIV risk behaviors within a community of MSM who maintained multiple partnerships. Our study suggests that HIV interventions need to address excessive alcohol use to mitigate the associated HIV risk at both the individual and community levels.

Cancer incidence in adults living in the vicinity of nuclear power plants in France, based on data from the French Network of Cancer Registries.

PubMed

Desbiolles, Alice; Roudier, Candice; Goria, Sarah; Stempfelet, Morgane; Kairo, Cécile; Quintin, Cécile; Bidondo, Marie-Laure; Monnereau, Alain; Vacquier, Blandine

2018-03-01

Nuclear power plants (NPPs) release toxic emissions into the environment that may affect neighboring populations. This ecologic study was designed to investigate the possibility of an excess incidence of cancer in the vicinity of French NPPs by examining the incidence by municipality of 12 types of cancer in the population aged 15 years and older during the 1995-2011 period. Population exposure to pollution was estimated on the basis of distance from towns of residence to the NPP. Using regression models, we assessed the risk of cancer in a 20-km zone around NPPs and observed an excess incidence of bladder cancer (Relative Risk (RR), 95% Credibility Interval (95% CI)) in men and women (RR men  = 1.08; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.17 and RR women  = 1.19; 95% CI: 1.02, 1.39). Women living within the 20-km proximity areas had a significantly reduced risk of thyroid cancer (RR women  = 0.86; 95% CI: 0.77, 0.96). No excess risk of hematologic malignancies in either sex was seen. The higher than expected incidence of bladder cancer may be due to an excess incidence localized around the Flamanville NPP and the nearby La Hague nuclear waste treatment center, which is a source of chemical contaminants, many (including arsenic) of them known risk factors for bladder cancer. Differences in medical practices could explain the reduced risk of thyroid cancer. In this first study of adults living near NPPs in France, cancer incidence is significantly higher than in the references populations for one of the cancer types studied: bladder cancer. © 2017 UICC.

The Role of Age and Excess Body Mass Index in Progression to Type 1 Diabetes in At-Risk Adults.

PubMed

Ferrara, Christine T; Geyer, Susan M; Evans-Molina, Carmella; Libman, Ingrid M; Becker, Dorothy J; Wentworth, John M; Moran, Antoinette; Gitelman, Stephen E; Redondo, Maria J

2017-12-01

Given the global rise in both type 1 diabetes incidence and obesity, the role of body mass index (BMI) on type 1 diabetes pathophysiology has gained great interest. Sustained excess BMI in pediatric participants of the TrialNet Pathway to Prevention (PTP) cohort increased risk for progression to type 1 diabetes, but the effects of age and obesity in adults remain largely unknown. To determine the effect of age and sustained obesity on the risk for type 1 diabetes in adult participants in the TrialNet PTP cohort (i.e., nondiabetic autoantibody-positive relatives of patients with type 1 diabetes). Longitudinally accumulated BMI >25 kg/m2 was calculated to generate a cumulative excess BMI (ceBMI) for each participant, with ceBMI values ≥0 kg/m2 and ≥5 kg/m2 representing sustained overweight or obese status, respectively. Recursive partitioning analysis yielded sex- and age-specific thresholds for ceBMI that confer the greatest risk for type 1 diabetes progression. In this cohort of 665 adults (age 20 to 50 years; median follow-up, 3.9 years), 49 participants developed type 1 diabetes. Age was an independent protective factor for type 1 diabetes progression (hazard ratio, 0.95; P = 0.008), with a threshold of >35 years that reduced risk for type 1 diabetes. In men age >35 years and women age <35 years, sustained obesity (ceBMI ≥5 kg/m2) increased the risk for type 1 diabetes. Age is an important factor for type 1 diabetes progression in adults and influences the impact of elevated BMI, indicating an interplay of excess weight, age, and sex in adult type 1 diabetes pathophysiology. Copyright © 2017 Endocrine Society

Economic status, smoking, occupational exposure to rubber, and lung cancer: a case-cohort study.

PubMed

Li, Ke; Yu, Shunzhang

2002-05-01

Recent studies tend consistently to confirm the presence of a moderate excess risk of lung cancer in the rubber industry. However, the agent responsible for the excess of lung cancer is still obscure. Also, analyses without regard to the modifying effects of sex, economic status, and smoking habit are less than satisfactory. To explore these questions, we have conducted a case-cohort study using the data of 51 lung cancer deaths in 1973-1997 and a random sample (sub-cohort) of 188 from among 1598 subjects in a rubber factory in Shanghai, China. We computed the risks of lung cancer by economic status, smoking habit, coal fumes in home, and year of first employment. We assessed lung cancer risks for occupational exposures, unadjusted and adjusted for economic status and smoking. After confounding effects of smoking and economic status were controlled, we found that rate ratios were 1.43 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.43-4.69), 1.79 (95% CI 0.64-5.03), and 3.76 (95% CI 1.44-9.86) for 1-14, 15-29, and 30-45 exposure-years in curing department, respectively. The data showed significant trends in increased risk of lung cancer with duration of exposure in tire-curing department (score test for trend:, P = 0.004). However, in front rubber processing (weighing and mixing, calendering, extruding, and milling), no significant excess risk of lung cancer was found. If it can be confirmed that nitrosamines are mainly generated in back rubber processing (curing and vulcanizing), it would be reasonable to conclude that excess risk of lung cancer in rubber industry is attributable, at least partially, to exposure to nitrosamines.

Biological and statistical approaches to predicting human lung cancer risk from silica.

PubMed

Kuempel, E D; Tran, C L; Bailer, A J; Porter, D W; Hubbs, A F; Castranova, V

2001-01-01

Chronic inflammation is a key step in the pathogenesis of particle-elicited fibrosis and lung cancer in rats, and possibly in humans. In this study, we compute the excess risk estimates for lung cancer in humans with occupational exposure to crystalline silica, using both rat and human data, and using both a threshold approach and linear models. From a toxicokinetic/dynamic model fit to lung burden and pulmonary response data from a subchronic inhalation study in rats, we estimated the minimum critical quartz lung burden (Mcrit) associated with reduced pulmonary clearance and increased neutrophilic inflammation. A chronic study in rats was also used to predict the human excess risk of lung cancer at various quartz burdens, including mean Mcrit (0.39 mg/g lung). We used a human kinetic lung model to link the equivalent lung burdens to external exposures in humans. We then computed the excess risk of lung cancer at these external exposures, using data of workers exposed to respirable crystalline silica and using Poisson regression and lifetable analyses. Finally, we compared the lung cancer excess risks estimated from male rat and human data. We found that the rat-based linear model estimates were approximately three times higher than those based on human data (e.g., 2.8% in rats vs. 0.9-1% in humans, at mean Mcrit lung burden or associated mean working lifetime exposure of 0.036 mg/m3). Accounting for variability and uncertainty resulted in 100-1000 times lower estimates of human critical lung burden and airborne exposure. This study illustrates that assumptions about the relevant biological mechanism, animal model, and statistical approach can all influence the magnitude of lung cancer risk estimates in humans exposed to crystalline silica.

Early administration of aspirin in patients treated with alteplase for acute ischaemic stroke: a randomised controlled trial.

PubMed

Zinkstok, Sanne M; Roos, Yvo B

2012-08-25

Thrombolysis with intravenous alteplase is the only approved treatment for acute ischaemic stroke. After alteplase-induced recanalisation, reocclusion occurs in 14-34% of patients, probably because of platelet activation. Early administration of antiplatelet therapy after alteplase could reduce the risk of reocclusion and improve outcome. We compared the effects of early addition of intravenous aspirin to alteplase with standard alteplase without aspirin. In this multicentre, randomised, open-label trial with blind-endpoint assessment, patients with acute ischaemic stroke treated with alteplase were randomly assigned to 300 mg intravenous aspirin within 90 min after start of alteplase treatment or to no additional treatment. In both groups, oral antiplatelet therapy was started 24 h after alteplase treatment. The primary endpoint was favourable outcome, defined as a score of 0-2 on the modified Rankin scale at 3 months. This trial is registered with the Netherlands Trial Register (NTR822). Between July 29, 2008, and April 20, 2011, 642 patients (322 patients aspirin, 320 patients standard treatment) of the targeted 800 patients were enrolled. At that time, the trial was terminated prematurely because of an excess of symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage (SICH) and no evidence of benefit in the aspirin group. At 3 months, 174 (54·0%) patients in the aspirin group versus 183 (57·2%) patients in the standard treatment group had a favourable outcome (absolute difference -3·2%, 95% CI -10·8 to 4·2; crude relative risk 0·94, 0·82 to 1·09, p=0·42). Adjusted odds ratio was 0·91 (95% CI 0·66-1·26, p=0·58). SICH occurred more often in the aspirin group (14 [4·3%] patients) than in the standard treatment group (five [1·6%]; absolute difference 2·8%, 95% CI 0·2-5·4; p=0·04). SICH was more often the cause of poor outcome in the aspirin group compared with the standard treatment group (11 vs 1, p=0·006). Early administration of intravenous aspirin in patients with acute ischaemic stroke treated with alteplase does not improve outcome at 3 months and increases the risk of SICH. The results of this trial do not support a change of the current guidelines, which advise to start antiplatelet therapy 24 h after alteplase. The Dutch Heart Foundation. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Triple galaxies and a hidden mass problem

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Karachentsev, I. D.; Karachentseva, V. E.; Lebedev, V. S.

1990-01-01

The authors consider a homogeneous sample of 84 triple systems of galaxies with components brighter than m = 15.7, located in the northern sky and satisfying an isolation criterion with respect to neighboring galaxies in projection. The distributions of basic dynamical parameters for triplets have median values as follows: radial velocity dispersion 133 km/s, mean harmonic radius 63 kpc, absolute magnitude of galaxies M sub B equals -20.38, crossing time tau = 0.04 H(sup minus 1). For different ways of estimation the median mass-to-luminosity ratio is (20 - 30). A comparison of the last value with the ones for single and binary galaxies shows the presence of a virial mass excess for triplets by a factor 4. The mass-to-luminosity ratio is practically uncorrelated with linear size of triplets or with morphological types of their components. We note that a significant part of the virial excess may be explained by the presence of nonisolated triple configurations in the sample, which are produced by debris of more populous groups of galaxies.

Long-term trend of thyroid cancer risk among Japanese atomic-bomb survivors: 60 years after exposure

PubMed Central

Furukawa, Kyoji; Preston, Dale; Funamoto, Sachiyo; Yonehara, Shuji; Ito, Masahiro; Tokuoka, Shoji; Sugiyama, Hiromi; Soda, Midori; Ozasa, Kotaro; Mabuchi, Kiyohiko

2014-01-01

Thyroid cancer risk following exposure to ionizing radiation in childhood and adolescence is a topic of public concern. To characterize the long-term temporal trend and age-at-exposure variation in the radiation-induced risk of thyroid cancer, we analyzed thyroid cancer incidence data for the period from 1958 through 2005 among 105,401 members of the Life Span Study cohort of Japanese atomic-bomb survivors. During the follow-up period, 371 thyroid cancer cases (excluding those with microcarcinoma with a diameter <10 mm) were identified as a first primary among the eligible subjects. Using a linear dose–response model, the excess relative risk of thyroid cancer at 1 Gy of radiation exposure was estimated as 1.28 (95% confidence interval: 0.59–2.70) at age 60 after acute exposure at age 10. The risk decreased sharply with increasing age-at-exposure and there was little evidence of increased thyroid cancer rates for those exposed after age 20. About 36% of the thyroid cancer cases among those exposed before age 20 were estimated to be attributable to radiation exposure. While the magnitude of the excess risk has decreased with increasing attained age or time since exposure, the excess thyroid cancer risk associated with childhood exposure has persisted for >50 years after exposure PMID:22847218

Treatment of androgen excess in adolescent girls: ethinylestradiol-cyproteroneacetate versus low-dose pioglitazone-flutamide-metformin.

PubMed

Ibáñez, Lourdes; Diaz, Marta; Sebastiani, Giorgia; Sánchez-Infantes, David; Salvador, Cristina; Lopez-Bermejo, Abel; de Zegher, Francis

2011-11-01

The aim was to perform a first comparison between the effects of a classic therapy and those of a novel treatment for androgen excess in adolescent girls. We conducted a randomized, open-labeled trial at a university hospital. Thirty-four adolescents with hyperinsulinemic androgen excess and without risk of pregnancy participated in the study. Ethinyl estradiol-cyproterone acetate (EE-CA) vs. a low-dose combination of pioglitazone, flutamide, and metformin (PioFluMet) was administered for 6 months. We assessed hirsutism and acne scores; androgen excess; fasting insulin, lipid profile, C-reactive protein, high molecular-weight adiponectin, leptin, follistatin; carotid intima-media thickness; body composition (absorptiometry); and abdominal fat partitioning (magnetic resonance imaging). EE-CA and PioFluMet attenuated the androgen excess comparably but had divergent effects on fasting insulinemia; on circulating cholesterol, triglycerides, C-reactive protein, high molecular-weight adiponectin, leptin, and follistatin; on carotid intima-media thickness; on lean mass; and on abdominal, visceral, and hepatic fat, with all these divergences pointing to a healthier condition on low-dose PioFluMet. Low-dose PioFluMet compared favorably to EE-CA in adolescents with androgen excess and without pregnancy risk. The efficacy and safety of low-dose PioFluMet remain to be studied over a longer term and in larger cohorts.

Association of infertility and fertility treatment with mammographic density in a large screening-based cohort of women: a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Lundberg, Frida E; Johansson, Anna L V; Rodriguez-Wallberg, Kenny; Brand, Judith S; Czene, Kamila; Hall, Per; Iliadou, Anastasia N

2016-04-13

Ovarian stimulation drugs, in particular hormonal agents used for controlled ovarian stimulation (COS) required to perform in vitro fertilization, increase estrogen and progesterone levels and have therefore been suspected to influence breast cancer risk. This study aims to investigate whether infertility and hormonal fertility treatment influences mammographic density, a strong hormone-responsive risk factor for breast cancer. Cross-sectional study including 43,313 women recruited to the Karolinska Mammography Project between 2010 and 2013. Among women who reported having had infertility, 1576 had gone through COS, 1429 had had hormonal stimulation without COS and 5958 had not received any hormonal fertility treatment. Percent and absolute mammographic densities were obtained using the volumetric method Volpara™. Associations with mammographic density were assessed using multivariable generalized linear models, estimating mean differences (MD) with 95 % confidence intervals (CI). After multivariable adjustment, women with a history of infertility had 1.53 cm(3) higher absolute dense volume compared to non-infertile women (95 % CI: 0.70 to 2.35). Among infertile women, only those who had gone through COS treatment had a higher absolute dense volume than those who had not received any hormone treatment (adjusted MD 3.22, 95 % CI: 1.10 to 5.33). No clear associations were observed between infertility, fertility treatment and percent volumetric density. Overall, women reporting infertility had more dense tissue in the breast. The higher absolute dense volume in women treated with COS may indicate a treatment effect, although part of the association might also be due to the underlying infertility. Continued monitoring of cancer risk in infertile women, especially those who undergo COS, is warranted.

Workload and non-contact injury incidence in elite football players competing in European leagues.

PubMed

Delecroix, Barthelemy; McCall, Alan; Dawson, Brian; Berthoin, Serge; Dupont, Gregory

2018-06-02

The aim of this study was to analyse the relationship between absolute and acute:chronic workload ratios and non-contact injury incidence in professional football players and to assess their predictive ability. Elite football players (n = 130) from five teams competing in European domestic and confederation level competitions were followed during one full competitive season. Non-contact injuries were recorded and using session rate of perceived exertion (s-RPE) internal absolute workload and acute:chronic (A:C) workload ratios (4-weeks, 3-weeks, 2-weeks and week-to-week) were calculated using a rolling days method. The relative risk (RR) of non-contact injury was increased (RR = 1.59, CI95%: 1.18-2.15) when a cumulative 4-week absolute workload was greater than 10629 arbitrary units (AU) in comparison with a workload between 3745 and 10628 AU. When the 3-week absolute workload was more than 8319 AU versus between 2822 and 8318 AU injury risk was also increased (RR= 1.46, CI95% 1.08-1.98). Injury incidence was higher when the 4-week A:C ratio was <0.85 versus >0.85 (RR = 1.31, CI95%: 1.02-1.70) and with a 3-week A:C ratio >1.30 versus <1.30 (RR = 1.37, CI95%: 1.05-1.77). Importantly, none of the A:C workload combinations showed high sensitivity or specificity. In elite European footballers, using internal workload (sRPE) revealed that cumulative workloads over 3 and 4 weeks were associated with injury incidence. Additionally, A:C workloads, using combinations of 2, 3 and 4 weeks as the C workloads were also associated with increased injury risk. No A:C workload combination was appropriate to predict injury.

Research and Development on the Storage Ring Vacuum System for the APS Upgrade Project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stillwell, B.; Brajuskovic, B.; Carter, J.

A number of research and development activities are underway at Argonne National Laboratory to build confidence in the designs for the storage ring vacuum system required for the Advanced Photon Source Up-grade project (APS-U) [1]. The predominant technical risks are: excessive residual gas pressures during operation; insufficient beam position monitor stability; excessive beam impedance; excessive heating by induced electrical surface currents; and insufficient operational reliability. Present efforts to mitigate these risks include: building and evaluating mockup assemblies; performing mechanical testing of chamber weld joints; developing computational tools; investigating design alternatives; and performing electrical bench measurements. Status of these activities andmore » some of what has been learned to date will be shared.« less

The role of gestational diabetes, pre-pregnancy body mass index and gestational weight gain on the risk of newborn macrosomia: results from a prospective multicentre study.

PubMed

Alberico, Salvatore; Montico, Marcella; Barresi, Valentina; Monasta, Lorenzo; Businelli, Caterina; Soini, Valentina; Erenbourg, Anna; Ronfani, Luca; Maso, Gianpaolo

2014-01-15

It is crucial to identify in large population samples the most important determinants of excessive fetal growth. The aim of the study was to evaluate the independent role of pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI), gestational weight gain and gestational diabetes on the risk of macrosomia. A prospective study collected data on mode of delivery and maternal/neonatal outcomes in eleven Hospitals in Italy. Multiple pregnancies and preterm deliveries were excluded. The sample included 14109 women with complete records. Associations between exposure variables and newborn macrosomia were analyzed using Pearson's chi squared test. Multiple logistic regression models were built to assess the independent association between potential predictors and macrosomia. Maternal obesity (adjusted OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.4-2.2), excessive gestational weight gain (adjusted OR 1.9, 95% CI 1.6-2.2) and diabetes (adjusted OR 2.1, 95% CI 1.5-3.0 for gestational; adjusted OR 3.0, 95% CI 1.2-7.6 for pre-gestational) resulted to be independent predictors of macrosomia, when adjusted for other recognized risk factors. Since no significant interaction was found between pre-gestational BMI and gestational weight gain, excessive weight gain should be considered an independent risk factor for macrosomia. In the sub-group of women affected by gestational or pre-gestational diabetes, pre-gestational BMI was not significantly associated to macrosomia, while excessive pregnancy weight gain, maternal height and gestational age at delivery were significantly associated. In this sub-population, pregnancy weight gain less than recommended was not significantly associated to a reduction in macrosomia. Our findings indicate that maternal obesity, gestational weight gain excess and diabetes should be considered as independent risk factors for newborn macrosomia. To adequately evaluate the clinical evolution of pregnancy all three variables need to be carefully assessed and monitored.

The role of gestational diabetes, pre-pregnancy body mass index and gestational weight gain on the risk of newborn macrosomia: results from a prospective multicentre study

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background It is crucial to identify in large population samples the most important determinants of excessive fetal growth. The aim of the study was to evaluate the independent role of pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI), gestational weight gain and gestational diabetes on the risk of macrosomia. Methods A prospective study collected data on mode of delivery and maternal/neonatal outcomes in eleven Hospitals in Italy. Multiple pregnancies and preterm deliveries were excluded. The sample included 14109 women with complete records. Associations between exposure variables and newborn macrosomia were analyzed using Pearson’s chi squared test. Multiple logistic regression models were built to assess the independent association between potential predictors and macrosomia. Results Maternal obesity (adjusted OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.4-2.2), excessive gestational weight gain (adjusted OR 1.9, 95% CI 1.6-2.2) and diabetes (adjusted OR 2.1, 95% CI 1.5-3.0 for gestational; adjusted OR 3.0, 95% CI 1.2-7.6 for pre-gestational) resulted to be independent predictors of macrosomia, when adjusted for other recognized risk factors. Since no significant interaction was found between pre-gestational BMI and gestational weight gain, excessive weight gain should be considered an independent risk factor for macrosomia. In the sub-group of women affected by gestational or pre-gestational diabetes, pre-gestational BMI was not significantly associated to macrosomia, while excessive pregnancy weight gain, maternal height and gestational age at delivery were significantly associated. In this sub-population, pregnancy weight gain less than recommended was not significantly associated to a reduction in macrosomia. Conclusions Our findings indicate that maternal obesity, gestational weight gain excess and diabetes should be considered as independent risk factors for newborn macrosomia. To adequately evaluate the clinical evolution of pregnancy all three variables need to be carefully assessed and monitored. PMID:24428895

Autoimune liver disease panel

MedlinePlus

... liver cirrhosis or chronic active hepatitis. Risks Slight risks from having blood drawn include: Excessive bleeding Fainting or feeling lightheaded Hematoma (blood accumulating under the skin) Infection ( ...

Associations between breast density and a panel of single nucleotide polymorphisms linked to breast cancer risk: a cohort study with digital mammography.

PubMed

Keller, Brad M; McCarthy, Anne Marie; Chen, Jinbo; Armstrong, Katrina; Conant, Emily F; Domchek, Susan M; Kontos, Despina

2015-03-18

Breast density and single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) have both been associated with breast cancer risk. To determine the extent to which these two breast cancer risk factors are associated, we investigate the association between a panel of validated SNPs related to breast cancer and quantitative measures of mammographic density in a cohort of Caucasian and African-American women. In this IRB-approved, HIPAA-compliant study, we analyzed a screening population of 639 women (250 African American and 389 Caucasian) who were tested with a validated panel assay of 12 SNPs previously associated to breast cancer risk. Each woman underwent digital mammography as part of routine screening and all were interpreted as negative. Both absolute and percent estimates of area and volumetric density were quantified on a per-woman basis using validated software. Associations between the number of risk alleles in each SNP and the density measures were assessed through a race-stratified linear regression analysis, adjusted for age, BMI, and Gail lifetime risk. The majority of SNPs were not found to be associated with any measure of breast density. SNP rs3817198 (in LSP1) was significantly associated with both absolute area (p = 0.004) and volumetric (p = 0.019) breast density in Caucasian women. In African-American women, SNPs rs3803662 (in TNRC9/TOX3) and rs4973768 (in NEK10) were significantly associated with absolute (p = 0.042) and percent (p = 0.028) volume density respectively. The majority of SNPs investigated in our study were not found to be significantly associated with breast density, even when accounting for age, BMI, and Gail risk, suggesting that these two different risk factors contain potentially independent information regarding a woman's risk to develop breast cancer. Additionally, the few statistically significant associations between breast density and SNPs were different for Caucasian versus African American women. Larger prospective studies are warranted to validate our findings and determine potential implications for breast cancer risk assessment.

Absolute and relative educational inequalities in depression in Europe.

PubMed

Dudal, Pieter; Bracke, Piet

2016-09-01

To investigate (1) the size of absolute and relative educational inequalities in depression, (2) their variation between European countries, and (3) their relationship with underlying prevalence rates. Analyses are based on the European Social Survey, rounds three and six (N = 57,419). Depression is measured using the shortened Centre of Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale. Education is coded by use of the International Standard Classification of Education. Country-specific logistic regressions are applied. Results point to an elevated risk of depressive symptoms among the lower educated. The cross-national patterns differ between absolute and relative measurements. For men, large relative inequalities are found for countries including Denmark and Sweden, but are accompanied by small absolute inequalities. For women, large relative and absolute inequalities are found in Belgium, Bulgaria, and Hungary. Results point to an empirical association between inequalities and the underlying prevalence rates. However, the strength of the association is only moderate. This research stresses the importance of including both measurements for comparative research and suggests the inclusion of the level of population health in research into inequalities in health.

High risk for obstructive sleep apnea and other sleep disorders among overweight and obese pregnant women.

PubMed

Rice, Jayne R; Larrabure-Torrealva, Gloria T; Luque Fernandez, Miguel Angel; Grande, Mirtha; Motta, Vicky; Barrios, Yasmin V; Sanchez, Sixto; Gelaye, Bizu; Williams, Michelle A

2015-09-02

Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA), a common and serious disorder in which breathing repeatedly stops during sleep, is associated with excess weight and obesity. Little is known about the co-occurrence of OSA among pregnant women from low and middle-income countries. We examined the extent to which maternal pre-pregnancy overweight or obesity status are associated with high risk for OSA, poor sleep quality, and excessive daytime sleepiness in 1032 pregnant women in Lima, Peru. The Berlin questionnaire was used to identify women at high risk for OSA. The Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI) and Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS) were used to examine sleep quality and excessive daytime sleepiness, respectively. Multinomial logistic regression procedures were employed to estimate odds ratios (aOR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) adjusted for putative confounding factors. Compared with lean women (<25 kg/m(2)), overweight women (25-29.9 kg/m(2)) had 3.69-fold higher odds of high risk for OSA (95% CI 1.82-7.50). The corresponding aOR for obese women (≥30 kg/m(2)) was 13.23 (95% CI: 6.25-28.01). Obese women, as compared with their lean counterparts had a 1.61-fold higher odds of poor sleep quality (95% CI: 1.00-2.63). Overweight or obese pregnant women have increased odds of sleep disorders, particularly OSA. OSA screening and risk management may be indicated among pregnant women in low and middle income countries, particularly those undergoing rapid epidemiologic transitions characterized by increased prevalence of excessive adult weight gain.

Trees influence preferencial flow and water uptake in tropical savanna

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benegas, Laura; Bargues-Tobella, Aida; Hasselquist, Niles; Malmer, Anders; Ilstedt, Ulrik

2017-04-01

To address potential competition between trees and grasses for soil water, and to disentangle the main process responsible for local soil water dynamics in pasture ecosystems, we conducted a study of the soil water content and water source partitioning of grasses and trees within a pasture in the Copan River catchment, Honduras. We used differences in the 2H/1H (δD) isotopic signature of soil water (δSW) and the local meteoric water line (LMWL; δLMWL) as a relative index of evaporation, following a recent model proposed by Hasselquist et al (under review). The model uses Lc-excess calculated as the absolute value of the difference between measured δD and that predicted by the local meteoric water line (lc-excess = ¦δDM - δDP¦). Lc-excess values close to zero indicate little difference between soil water samples and local precipitation, whereas larger values indicate a greater degree of evaporation .()...(adapted from Landwehr and Coplen, 2006). From the relation between Lc-excess and SWC, we can tease apart different processes by which trees influence local soil water dynamics, where one such processes indicate that if preferential flow, i.e quick flows through macropores that by-pass the soil matrix, is the main pathway for water movement in the soil, then the Lc-excess values of soil water at deeper depths will be closer to zero than those of the surface soil, whereas relatively higher Lc-excess values would indicate increasing dominance of matrix flow. We found that soil underneath trees was wetter than underneath grasses at the dry season and we can relate this with a lack of clear relationship between Lc-excess and SWC and with the treés apparent shift to groundwater sources for root uptake especially in the dry season. Due to the positive correlation between Lc-excess and SWC under trees and due to the lower Lc-excess values found at subsoil below trees during the dry season, we can infer that preferential flow is also facilitated by the trees enhancing its contribution to groundwater recharge. The possible water losses via interception linked with trees on the soil water dynamic was counterbalanced by the positive contribution of trees to preferential flow and groundwater recharge.

Transesterification process to manufacture ethyl ester of rape oil

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Korus, R.A.; Hoffman, D.S.; Bam, N.

1993-12-31

A process for the production of the ethyl ester of winter rape [EEWR] for use as a biodiesel fuel has been studied. The essential part of the process is the transesterification of rape oil with ethanol, in the presence of a catalyst, to yield the ethyl ester of rape oil as a product and glycerin as a by-product. Experiments have been performed to determine the optimum conditions for the preparation of EEWR. The process variables were: (1) temperature, (2) catalyst, (3) rate of agitation, (4) water content of the alcohol used, and (5) the amount of excess alcohol used. Themore » optimum conditions were: (1) room temperature, (2) 0.5% sodium methoxide or 1% potassium hydroxide catalyst by weight of rapeseed oil, (3) extremely vigorous agitation with some splashing during the initial phase of the reaction and agitation was not necessary after the reaction mixture became homogeneous, (4) absolute ethanol was necessary for high conversion, and (5) 50% excess ethanol with NaOCH{sub 3} or 100% excess with KOH gave a maximum conversion. Viscosity, cloud point and pour point of the EEWR were measured. A preliminary break-even cost for the commercial production of EEWR was found to be $0.55/liter [$2.08/US gallon].« less

Familial Aggregation of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis

PubMed Central

Kamel, Freya; Lichtenstein, Paul; Bellocco, Rino; Sparén, Pär; Sandler, Dale P; Ye, Weimin

2009-01-01

Objective To assess the relative risk of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) in families of ALS patients. Methods We conducted a cohort study based on the Swedish Multi-Generation Register (MGR) in 1961-2005. Among 6,671 probands (first ALS case in the family), 1,909 full siblings, 13,947 children, and 5,405 spouses were identified (exposed group). Other persons in MGR, who were siblings, children, or spouses to persons without ALS, served as the reference group. Relative risks of ALS among the exposed group, compared to the reference group, were calculated from Poisson regression models. Concurrence of ALS within twins was assessed in 86,441 twin pairs registered in the Swedish Twin Register. Results Nine cases of ALS were noted among the siblings and 37 cases among the children of the probands, giving a 17-fold risk among the siblings (95% confidence interval [CI], 8.1-30.4) and a 9-fold risk among the children (95% CI, 6.2-12.0), compared to the reference group. Siblings and children had a higher excess risk if the proband was diagnosed at younger age, and the excess risks decreased with increasing age at diagnosis of the proband (p < 0.001). Spouses had no significantly increased risk (p = 0.27). Two cases were identified among the co-twins of ALS probands, giving a relative risk of 32 (95% CI, 5.2-102.6). Interpretation The siblings and children of ALS patients have an around 10-fold risk of ALS compared to the reference group. The excess risks vary with both age and kinship, indicating a major genetic role in familial ALS. PMID:19670447

Assessing the ability of isotope-enabled General Circulation Models to simulate the variability of Iceland water vapor isotopic composition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erla Sveinbjornsdottir, Arny; Steen-Larsen, Hans Christian; Jonsson, Thorsteinn; Ritter, Francois; Riser, Camilla; Messon-Delmotte, Valerie; Bonne, Jean Louis; Dahl-Jensen, Dorthe

2014-05-01

During the fall of 2010 we installed an autonomous water vapor spectroscopy laser (Los Gatos Research analyzer) in a lighthouse on the Southwest coast of Iceland (63.83°N, 21.47°W). Despite initial significant problems with volcanic ash, high wind, and attack of sea gulls, the system has been continuously operational since the end of 2011 with limited down time. The system automatically performs calibration every 2 hours, which results in high accuracy and precision allowing for analysis of the second order parameter, d-excess, in the water vapor. We find a strong linear relationship between d-excess and local relative humidity (RH) when normalized to SST. The observed slope of approximately -45 o/oo/% is similar to theoretical predictions by Merlivat and Jouzel [1979] for smooth surface, but the calculated intercept is significant lower than predicted. Despite this good linear agreement with theoretical calculations, mismatches arise between the simulated seasonal cycle of water vapour isotopic composition using LMDZiso GCM nudged to large-scale winds from atmospheric analyses, and our data. The GCM is not able to capture seasonal variations in local RH, nor seasonal variations in d-excess. Based on daily data, the performance of LMDZiso to resolve day-to-day variability is measured based on the strength of the correlation coefficient between observations and model outputs. This correlation coefficient reaches ~0.8 for surface absolute humidity, but decreases to ~0.6 for δD and ~0.45 d-excess. Moreover, the magnitude of day-to-day humidity variations is also underestimated by LMDZiso, which can explain the underestimated magnitude of isotopic depletion. Finally, the simulated and observed d-excess vs. RH has similar slopes. We conclude that the under-estimation of d-excess variability may partly arise from the poor performance of the humidity simulations.

Long-term proton pump inhibitors and risk of gastric cancer development after treatment for Helicobacter pylori: a population-based study.

PubMed

Cheung, Ka Shing; Chan, Esther W; Wong, Angel Y S; Chen, Lijia; Wong, Ian C K; Leung, Wai Keung

2018-01-01

Proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) is associated with worsening of gastric atrophy, particularly in Helicobacter pylori (HP)-infected subjects. We determined the association between PPIs use and gastric cancer (GC) among HP-infected subjects who had received HP therapy. This study was based on a territory-wide health database of Hong Kong. We identified adults who had received an outpatient prescription of clarithromycin-based triple therapy between year 2003 and 2012. Patients who failed this regimen, and those diagnosed to have GC within 12 months after HP therapy, or gastric ulcer after therapy were excluded. Prescriptions of PPIs or histamine-2 receptor antagonists (H2RA) started within 6 months before GC were excluded to avoid protopathic bias. We evaluated GC risk with PPIs by Cox proportional hazards model with propensity score adjustment. H2RA was used as a negative control exposure. Among the 63 397 eligible subjects, 153 (0.24%) developed GC during a median follow-up of 7.6 years. PPIs use was associated with an increased GC risk (HR 2.44, 95% CI 1.42 to 4.20), while H2RA was not (HR 0.72, 95% CI 0.48 to 1.07). The risk increased with duration of PPIs use (HR 5.04, 95% CI 1.23 to 20.61; 6.65, 95% CI 1.62 to 27.26 and 8.34, 95% CI 2.02 to 34.41 for ≥1 year, ≥2 years and ≥3 years, respectively). The adjusted absolute risk difference for PPIs versus non-PPIs use was 4.29 excess GC (95% CI 1.25 to 9.54) per 10 000 person-years. Long-term use of PPIs was still associated with an increased GC risk in subjects even after HP eradication therapy. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

A Simple Model Predicting Individual Weight Change in Humans

PubMed Central

Thomas, Diana M.; Martin, Corby K.; Heymsfield, Steven; Redman, Leanne M.; Schoeller, Dale A.; Levine, James A.

2010-01-01

Excessive weight in adults is a national concern with over 2/3 of the US population deemed overweight. Because being overweight has been correlated to numerous diseases such as heart disease and type 2 diabetes, there is a need to understand mechanisms and predict outcomes of weight change and weight maintenance. A simple mathematical model that accurately predicts individual weight change offers opportunities to understand how individuals lose and gain weight and can be used to foster patient adherence to diets in clinical settings. For this purpose, we developed a one dimensional differential equation model of weight change based on the energy balance equation is paired to an algebraic relationship between fat free mass and fat mass derived from a large nationally representative sample of recently released data collected by the Centers for Disease Control. We validate the model's ability to predict individual participants’ weight change by comparing model estimates of final weight data from two recent underfeeding studies and one overfeeding study. Mean absolute error and standard deviation between model predictions and observed measurements of final weights are less than 1.8 ± 1.3 kg for the underfeeding studies and 2.5 ± 1.6 kg for the overfeeding study. Comparison of the model predictions to other one dimensional models of weight change shows improvement in mean absolute error, standard deviation of mean absolute error, and group mean predictions. The maximum absolute individual error decreased by approximately 60% substantiating reliability in individual weight change predictions. The model provides a viable method for estimating individual weight change as a result of changes in intake and determining individual dietary adherence during weight change studies. PMID:24707319

Safety of benzathine penicillin for preventing congenital syphilis: a systematic review.

PubMed

Galvao, Tais F; Silva, Marcus T; Serruya, Suzanne J; Newman, Lori M; Klausner, Jeffrey D; Pereira, Mauricio G; Fescina, Ricardo

2013-01-01

To estimate the risk of serious adverse reactions to benzathine penicillin in pregnant women for preventing congenital syphilis. We searched for clinical trials or cohorts that assessed the incidence of serious adverse reactions to benzathine penicillin in pregnant women and the general population (indirect evidence). MEDLINE, EMBASE, Scopus and other databases were searched up to December 2012. The GRADE approach was used to assess quality of evidence. Absolute risks of each study were calculated along with their 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). We employed the DerSimonian and Laird random effects model in the meta-analyses. From 2,765 retrieved studies we included 13, representing 3,466,780 patients. The studies that included pregnant women were conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of benzathine penicillin: no serious adverse reactions were reported among the 1,244 pregnant women included. In the general population, among 2,028,982 patients treated, 4 died from an adverse reaction. The pooled risk of death was virtually zero. Fifty-four cases of anaphylaxis were reported (pooled absolute risk = 0.002%; 95% CI: 0%-0.003% I(2) = 12%). From that estimate, penicillin treatment would be expected to result in an incidence of 0 to 3 cases of anaphylaxis per 100,000 treated. Any adverse reactions were reported in 6,377 patients among 3,465,322 treated with penicillin (pooled absolute risk = 0.169%; 95% CI: 0.073%-0.265% I(2) = 97%). The quality of evidence was very low. Studies that assessed the risk of serious adverse events due to benzathine penicillin treatment in pregnant women were scarce, but no reports of adverse reactions were found. The incidence of severe adverse outcomes was very low in the general population. The risk of treating pregnant women with benzathine penicillin to prevent congenital syphilis appears very low and does not outweigh its benefits. Further research is needed to improve the quality of evidence.

Recurrent stroke risk and cerebral microbleed burden in ischemic stroke and TIA

PubMed Central

Wilson, Duncan; Charidimou, Andreas; Ambler, Gareth; Fox, Zoe V.; Gregoire, Simone; Rayson, Phillip; Imaizumi, Toshio; Fluri, Felix; Naka, Hiromitsu; Horstmann, Solveig; Veltkamp, Roland; Rothwell, Peter M.; Kwa, Vincent I.H.; Thijs, Vincent; Lee, Yong-Seok; Kim, Young Dae; Huang, Yining; Wong, Ka Sing; Jäger, Hans Rolf

2016-01-01

Objective: To determine associations between cerebral microbleed (CMB) burden with recurrent ischemic stroke (IS) and intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) risk after IS or TIA. Methods: We identified prospective studies of patients with IS or TIA that investigated CMBs and stroke (ICH and IS) risk during ≥3 months follow-up. Authors provided aggregate summary-level data on stroke outcomes, with CMBs categorized according to burden (single, 2–4, and ≥5 CMBs) and distribution. We calculated absolute event rates and pooled risk ratios (RR) using random-effects meta-analysis. Results: We included 5,068 patients from 15 studies. There were 115/1,284 (9.6%) recurrent IS events in patients with CMBs vs 212/3,781 (5.6%) in patients without CMBs (pooled RR 1.8 for CMBs vs no CMBs; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.4–2.5). There were 49/1,142 (4.3%) ICH events in those with CMBs vs 17/2,912 (0.58%) in those without CMBs (pooled RR 6.3 for CMBs vs no CMBs; 95% CI 3.5–11.4). Increasing CMB burden increased the risk of IS (pooled RR [95% CI] 1.8 [1.0–3.1], 2.4 [1.3–4.4], and 2.7 [1.5–4.9] for 1 CMB, 2–4 CMBs, and ≥5 CMBs, respectively) and ICH (pooled RR [95% CI] 4.6 [1.9–10.7], 5.6 [2.4–13.3], and 14.1 [6.9–29.0] for 1 CMB, 2–4 CMBs, and ≥5 CMBs, respectively). Conclusions: CMBs are associated with increased stroke risk after IS or TIA. With increasing CMB burden (compared to no CMBs), the risk of ICH increases more steeply than that of IS. However, IS absolute event rates remain higher than ICH absolute event rates in all CMB burden categories. PMID:27590288

Febrile/cold agglutinins

MedlinePlus

... Listeria monocytogenes Systemic lupus erythematosus Waldenström macrogolulinemia Risks Risks are slight but may include: Excessive bleeding Fainting or feeling lightheaded Hematoma (blood accumulating under the skin) Infection ( ...

Is polycystic ovary syndrome, a state of relative estrogen excess, a real risk factor for estrogen-dependant malignancies?

PubMed

Fanta, Michael

2013-02-01

Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is a common endocrinopathy affecting women of fertile age. It is associated with several risk factors and long-term health consequences. Chronic anovulation combined with relative estrogen excess and consequent prolonged stimulatory effect on the endometrium can lead to the pathogenesis of hormonal dependant carcinoma. PCOS is thus traditionally reported to be associated with increased risk of endometrial, as well as breast and ovarian cancers. This article provides a critical literature review of the relationship between PCOS and the incidence of estrogen-dependant gynecological tumours, and it then discusses whether the commonly cited risk factor association can be substantiated by high quality studies which comply with the requirements of "evidence-based medicine."

12 CFR Appendix A to Part 325 - Statement of Policy on Risk-Based Capital

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... qualifying and excess capital, calculate risk-weighted assets, calculate market risk equivalent assets and... and control financial and operating risks, including the risk presented by concentrations of credit....(6)(ii) of this appendix A), and subsidiaries that are engaged in non-financial activities are not...

12 CFR Appendix A to Part 325 - Statement of Policy on Risk-Based Capital

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... qualifying and excess capital, calculate risk-weighted assets, calculate market risk equivalent assets and... and control financial and operating risks, including the risk presented by concentrations of credit... instrument approaches maturity, the instrument begins to take on charcteristics of a short-term obligation...

12 CFR Appendix A to Part 325 - Statement of Policy on Risk-Based Capital

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... qualifying and excess capital, calculate risk-weighted assets, calculate market risk equivalent assets and... and control financial and operating risks, including the risk presented by concentrations of credit....(6)(ii) of this appendix A), and subsidiaries that are engaged in non-financial activities are not...

12 CFR Appendix A to Part 325 - Statement of Policy on Risk-Based Capital

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... qualifying and excess capital, calculate risk-weighted assets, calculate market risk equivalent assets and... and control financial and operating risks, including the risk presented by concentrations of credit....(6)(ii) of this appendix A), and subsidiaries that are engaged in non-financial activities are not...

12 CFR Appendix A to Part 325 - Statement of Policy on Risk-Based Capital

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... qualifying and excess capital, calculate risk-weighted assets, calculate market risk equivalent assets and... and control financial and operating risks, including the risk presented by concentrations of credit....(6)(ii) of this appendix A), and subsidiaries that are engaged in non-financial activities are not...

Do doctors accurately assess coronary risk in their patients? Preliminary results of the coronary health assessment study.

PubMed Central

Grover, S. A.; Lowensteyn, I.; Esrey, K. L.; Steinert, Y.; Joseph, L.; Abrahamowicz, M.

1995-01-01

OBJECTIVE--To evaluate the ability of doctors in primary care to assess risk patients' risk of coronary heart disease. DESIGN--Questionnaire survey. SETTING--Continuing medical education meetings, Ontario and Quebec, Canada. SUBJECTS--Community based doctors who agreed to enroll in the coronary health assessment study. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--Ratings of coronary risk factors and estimates by doctors of relative and absolute coronary risk of two hypothetical patients and the "average" 40 year old Canadian man and 70 year old Canadian woman. RESULTS--253 doctors answered the questionnaire. For 30 year olds the doctors rated cigarette smoking as the most important risk factor and raised serum triglyceride concentrations as the least important; for 70 year old patients they rated diabetes as the most important risk factor and raised serum triglyceride concentrations as the least important. They rated each individual risk factor as significantly less important for 70 year olds than for 30 year olds (all risk factors, P < 0.001). They showed a strong understanding of the relative importance of specific risk factors, and most were confident in their ability to estimate coronary risk. While doctors accurately estimated the relative risk of a specific patient (compared with the average adult) they systematically overestimated the absolute baseline risk of developing coronary disease and the risk reductions associated with specific interventions. CONCLUSIONS--Despite guidelines on targeting patients at high risk of coronary disease accurate assessment of coronary risk remains difficult for many doctors. Additional strategies must be developed to help doctors to assess better their patients' coronary risk. PMID:7728035

Sleep deficiency and motor vehicle crash risk in the general population: a prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Gottlieb, Daniel J; Ellenbogen, Jeffrey M; Bianchi, Matt T; Czeisler, Charles A

2018-03-20

Insufficient sleep duration and obstructive sleep apnea, two common causes of sleep deficiency in adults, can result in excessive sleepiness, a well-recognized cause of motor vehicle crashes, although their contribution to crash risk in the general population remains uncertain. The objective of this study was to evaluate the relation of sleep apnea, sleep duration, and excessive sleepiness to crash risk in a community-dwelling population. This was a prospective observational cohort study nested within the Sleep Heart Health Study, a community-based study of the health consequences of sleep apnea. The participants were 1745 men and 1456 women aged 40-89 years. Sleep apnea was measured by home polysomnography and questionnaires were used to assess usual sleep duration and daytime sleepiness. A follow-up questionnaire 2 years after baseline ascertained driving habits and motor vehicle crash history. Logistic regression analysis was used to examine the relation of sleep apnea and sleep duration at baseline to the occurrence of motor vehicle crashes during the year preceding the follow-up visit, adjusting for relevant covariates. The population-attributable fraction of motor vehicle crashes was estimated from the sample proportion of motor vehicle crashes and the adjusted odds ratios for motor vehicle crash within each exposure category. Among 3201 evaluable participants, 222 (6.9%) reported at least one motor vehicle crash during the prior year. A higher apnea-hypopnea index (p < 0.01), fewer hours of sleep (p = 0.04), and self-reported excessive sleepiness (p < 0.01) were each significantly associated with crash risk. Severe sleep apnea was associated with a 123% increased crash risk, compared to no sleep apnea. Sleeping 6 hours per night was associated with a 33% increased crash risk, compared to sleeping 7 or 8 hours per night. These associations were present even in those who did not report excessive sleepiness. The population-attributable fraction of motor vehicle crashes was 10% due to sleep apnea and 9% due to sleep duration less than 7 hours. Sleep deficiency due to either sleep apnea or insufficient sleep duration is strongly associated with motor vehicle crashes in the general population, independent of self-reported excessive sleepiness.

Absolute and relative risk of cardiovascular disease in men with prostate cancer: results from the Population-Based PCBaSe Sweden.

PubMed

Van Hemelrijck, Mieke; Garmo, Hans; Holmberg, Lars; Ingelsson, Erik; Bratt, Ola; Bill-Axelson, Anna; Lambe, Mats; Stattin, Pär; Adolfsson, Jan

2010-07-20

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a potential adverse effect of endocrine treatment (ET) for prostate cancer (PC). We investigated absolute and relative CVD risk in 76,600 patients with PC undergoing ET, curative treatment, or surveillance. PCBaSe Sweden is based on the National Prostate Cancer Register, which covers more than 96% of PC cases. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) and standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) of ischemic heart disease (IHD), acute myocardial infarction (MI), arrhythmia, heart failure, and stroke were calculated to compare observed and expected (using total Swedish population) numbers of CVD, taking into account age, calendar time, and previous CVD. Between 1997 and 2007, 30,642 patients with PC received primary ET, 26,432 curative treatment, and 19,527 surveillance. SIRs for CVD were elevated in all men with the highest for those undergoing ET, independent of circulatory disease history (SIR MI for men without circulatory disease history: 1.40 [95% CI, 1.31 to 1.49], 1.15 [95% CI, 1.01 to 1.31], and 1.20 [95% CI, 1.11 to 1.30] for men undergoing ET, curative treatment, and surveillance, respectively). Absolute risk differences (ARD) showed that two (arrhythmia) to eight (IHD) extra cases of CVD would occur per 1,000 person-years. SMRs showed similar patterns, with ARD of zero (arrhythmia) to three (IHD) per 1,000 person-years. Increased relative risks of nonfatal and fatal CVD were found among all men with PC, especially those treated with ET. Because ET is currently the only effective treatment for metastatic disease and the ARDs were rather small, our findings indicate that CVD risk should be considered when prescribing ET but should not constitute a contraindication when the expected gain is tangible.

Effect of acidity of in-office bleaching gels on tooth sensitivity and whitening: a two-center double-blind randomized clinical trial.

PubMed

Loguercio, A D; Servat, F; Stanislawczuk, R; Mena-Serrano, A; Rezende, M; Prieto, M V; Cereño, V; Rojas, M F; Ortega, K; Fernandez, E; Reis, A

2017-12-01

The study aimed to compare the tooth sensitivity (TS) and bleaching efficacy of two hydrogen peroxide gels with different pHs (acid pH [Pola Office, SDI] and the neutral pH [Pola Office+, SDI]) used for in-office bleaching. Fifty-four patients from Brazil and Chile, with right superior incisor darker than A2, were selected for this double-blind, split-mouth randomized trial. Teeth were bleached in two sessions, with 1-week interval. Each session had three applications of 8 min each, according to the manufacturer's instructions. The color changes were evaluated by subjective (Vita Classical and Vita Bleachedguide) and objective (Easy shade spectrophotometer) methods. Participants recorded TS with 0-10 visual analog scale. Color change in shade guide units (SGU) and ΔE was analyzed by Student's t test (α = 0.05). The absolute risk and intensity of TS were evaluated by McNemar's test and Wilcoxon-paired test, respectively (α = 0.05). All groups achieved the same level of whitening after 30 days of clinical evaluation. The use of a neutral in-office bleaching gel significantly decreases the absolute risk of TS (28%, 95% CI 18-41) and intensity of TS when compared to the acid bleaching gel (absolute risk of 50%, 95% CI 37-63). The use of a neutral in-office bleaching agent gel produced the same whitening degree than an acid bleaching gel but with reduced risk and intensity of tooth sensitivity. Clinicians should opt to use in-office bleaching with a neutral gel than an acid product because the former causes a significant lower risk and intensity of tooth sensitivity.

Cardiovascular risk assessment: audit findings from a nurse clinic--a quality improvement initiative.

PubMed

Waldron, Sarah; Horsburgh, Margaret

2009-09-01

Evidence has shown the effectiveness of risk factor management in reducing mortality and morbidity from cardiovascular disease (CVD). An audit of a nurse CVD risk assessment programme undertaken between November 2005 and December 2008 in a Northland general practice. A retrospective audit of CVD risk assessment with data for the first entry of 621 patients collected exclusively from PREDICT-CVDTM, along with subsequent data collected from 320 of these patients who had a subsequent assessment recorded at an interval ranging from six months to three years (18 month average). Of the eligible population (71%) with an initial CVD risk assessment, 430 (69.2%) had afive-year absolute risk less than 15%, with 84 (13.5%) having a risk greater than 15% and having not had a cardiovascular event. Of the patients with a follow-up CVD risk assessment, 34 showed improvement. Medication prescribing for patients with absolute CVD risk greater than 15% increased from 71% to 86% for anti-platelet medication and for lipid lowering medication from 65% to 72% in the audit period. The recently available 'heart health' trajectory tool will help patients become more aware of risks that are modifiable, together with community support to engage more patients in the nurse CVD prevention programme. Further medication audits to monitor prescribing trends. Patients who showed an improvement in CVD risk had an improvement in one or more modifiable risk factors and became actively involved in making changes to their health.

Current recommendations: what is the clinician to do?

PubMed

Manson, Joann E

2014-04-01

Menopausal hormone therapy (HT) has complex biologic effects but continues to have an important clinical role in the management of vasomotor and other menopausal symptoms. The rational use of menopausal HT requires balancing the potential benefits and risks of treatment. Findings from the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) and other randomized clinical trials have helped to clarify the benefits and risks of HT and have provided insights to improve decision making. Several clinical characteristics have utility in identifying women for whom benefits of HT are likely to outweigh the risks. Age and time since menopause are strong predictors of health outcomes and absolute risks associated with HT, and differences by age have been particularly apparent for estrogen alone. In the WHI trial of conjugated equine estrogens (CEE) alone, younger women (50-59 years) had more favorable results for all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction, and the global index, but not for stroke and venous thrombosis. Age trends were less clear for CEE + medroxyprogesterone acetate, owing to increased risks of breast cancer, stroke, and venous thrombosis in all age groups. Absolute risks of adverse events were lower in younger than in older women in both trials, however. Other predictors of lower vascular risk from HT include favorable lipid status and absence of the metabolic syndrome. Transdermal administration may be associated with lower risks of venous thrombosis and stroke, but additional research is needed. The use of risk stratification and personalized risk assessment offers promise for improved benefit-risk profile and safety of HT. One approach to decision making is presented. Key elements include: assessment of whether the patient has moderate to severe menopausal symptoms, the primary indication for initiating systemic HT (vaginal estrogen may be used to treat genitourinary symptoms in the absence of vasomotor symptoms); understanding the patient's own preference regarding therapy; evaluating the patient for the presence of any contraindications to HT, as well as the time since menopause onset and baseline risks of cardiovascular disease and breast cancer; reviewing carefully the benefits and risks of treatment with the patient, giving more emphasis to absolute than to relative measures of effect; and, if HT is initiated, regularly reviewing the patient's need for continued treatment. Copyright © 2014 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

White blood cell count - series (image)

MedlinePlus

... may be some throbbing. What the risks are: Risks associated with venipuncture are slight: excessive bleeding fainting or feeling lightheaded hematoma (blood accumulating under the skin) infection ( ...

Dispositional optimism and perceived risk interact to predict intentions to learn genome sequencing results.

PubMed

Taber, Jennifer M; Klein, William M P; Ferrer, Rebecca A; Lewis, Katie L; Biesecker, Leslie G; Biesecker, Barbara B

2015-07-01

Dispositional optimism and risk perceptions are each associated with health-related behaviors and decisions and other outcomes, but little research has examined how these constructs interact, particularly in consequential health contexts. The predictive validity of risk perceptions for health-related information seeking and intentions may be improved by examining dispositional optimism as a moderator, and by testing alternate types of risk perceptions, such as comparative and experiential risk. Participants (n = 496) had their genomes sequenced as part of a National Institutes of Health pilot cohort study (ClinSeq®). Participants completed a cross-sectional baseline survey of various types of risk perceptions and intentions to learn genome sequencing results for differing disease risks (e.g., medically actionable, nonmedically actionable, carrier status) and to use this information to change their lifestyle/health behaviors. Risk perceptions (absolute, comparative, and experiential) were largely unassociated with intentions to learn sequencing results. Dispositional optimism and comparative risk perceptions interacted, however, such that individuals higher in optimism reported greater intentions to learn all 3 types of sequencing results when comparative risk was perceived to be higher than when it was perceived to be lower. This interaction was inconsistent for experiential risk and absent for absolute risk. Independent of perceived risk, participants high in dispositional optimism reported greater interest in learning risks for nonmedically actionable disease and carrier status, and greater intentions to use genome information to change their lifestyle/health behaviors. The relationship between risk perceptions and intentions may depend on how risk perceptions are assessed and on degree of optimism. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.