Socioeconomic inequalities in cause specific mortality among older people in France.

PubMed

Menvielle, Gwenn; Leclerc, Annette; Chastang, Jean-François; Luce, Danièle

2010-05-19

European comparative studies documented a clear North-South divide in socioeconomic inequalities with cancer being the most important contributor to inequalities in total mortality among middle aged men in Latin Europe (France, Spain, Portugal, Italy). The aim of this paper is to investigate educational inequalities in mortality by gender, age and causes of death in France, with a special emphasis on people aged 75 years and more. We used data from a longitudinal population sample that includes 1% of the French population. Risk of death (total and cause specific) in the period 1990-1999 according to education was analysed using Cox regression models by age group (45-59, 60-74, and 75+). Inequalities were quantified using both relative (ratio) and absolute (difference) measures. Relative inequalities decreased with age but were still observed in the oldest age group. Absolute inequalities increased with age. This increase was particularly pronounced for cardiovascular diseases. The contribution of different causes of death to absolute inequalities in total mortality differed between age groups. In particular, the contribution of cancer deaths decreased substantially between the age groups 60-74 years and 75 years and more, both in men and in women. This study suggests that the large contribution of cancer deaths to the excess mortality among low educated people that was observed among middle aged men in Latin Europe is not observed among French people aged 75 years and more. This should be confirmed among other Latin Europe countries.

Absolute and Relative Socioeconomic Health Inequalities across Age Groups

PubMed Central

van Zon, Sander K. R.; Bültmann, Ute; Mendes de Leon, Carlos F.; Reijneveld, Sijmen A.

2015-01-01

Background The magnitude of socioeconomic health inequalities differs across age groups. It is less clear whether socioeconomic health inequalities differ across age groups by other factors that are known to affect the relation between socioeconomic position and health, like the indicator of socioeconomic position, the health outcome, gender, and as to whether socioeconomic health inequalities are measured in absolute or in relative terms. The aim is to investigate whether absolute and relative socioeconomic health inequalities differ across age groups by indicator of socioeconomic position, health outcome and gender. Methods The study sample was derived from the baseline measurement of the LifeLines Cohort Study and consisted of 95,432 participants. Socioeconomic position was measured as educational level and household income. Physical and mental health were measured with the RAND-36. Age concerned eleven 5-years age groups. Absolute inequalities were examined by comparing means. Relative inequalities were examined by comparing Gini-coefficients. Analyses were performed for both health outcomes by both educational level and household income. Analyses were performed for all age groups, and stratified by gender. Results Absolute and relative socioeconomic health inequalities differed across age groups by indicator of socioeconomic position, health outcome, and gender. Absolute inequalities were most pronounced for mental health by household income. They were larger in younger than older age groups. Relative inequalities were most pronounced for physical health by educational level. Gini-coefficients were largest in young age groups and smallest in older age groups. Conclusions Absolute and relative socioeconomic health inequalities differed cross-sectionally across age groups by indicator of socioeconomic position, health outcome and gender. Researchers should critically consider the implications of choosing a specific age group, in addition to the indicator of socioeconomic position and health outcome, as findings on socioeconomic health inequalities may differ between them. PMID:26717482

Use of 3H/3He Ages to evaluate and improve groundwater flow models in a complex buried-valley aquifer

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sheets, Rodney A.; Bair, E. Scott; Rowe, Gary L.

1998-01-01

Combined use of the tritium/helium 3 (3H/3He) dating technique and particle-tracking analysis can improve flow-model calibration. As shown at two sites in the Great Miami buried-valley aquifer in southwestern Ohio, the combined use of 3H/3He age dating and particle tracking led to a lower mean absolute error between measured heads and simulated heads than in the original calibrated models and/or between simulated travel times and 3H/3He ages. Apparent groundwater ages were obtained for water samples collected from 44 wells at two locations where previously constructed finite difference models of groundwater flow were available (Mound Plant and Wright-Patterson Air Force Base (WPAFB)). The two-layer Mound Plant model covers 11 km2 within the buried-valley aquifer. The WPAFB model has three layers and covers 262 km2 within the buried-valley aquifer and adjacent bedrock uplands. Sampled wells were chosen along flow paths determined from potentiometric maps or particle-tracking analyses. Water samples were collected at various depths within the aquifer. In the Mound Plant area, samples used for comparison of 3H/3He ages with simulated travel times were from wells completed in the uppermost model layer. Simulated travel times agreed well with 3H/3He ages. The mean absolute error (MAE) was 3.5 years. Agreement in ages at WPAFB decreased with increasing depth in the system. The MAEs were 1.63, 17.2, and 255 years for model layers 1, 2, and 3, respectively. Discrepancies between the simulated travel times and 3H/3He ages were assumed to be due to improper conceptualization or incorrect parameterization of the flow models. Selected conceptual and parameter modifications to the models resulted in improved agreement between 3H/3He ages and simulated travel times and between measured and simulated heads and flows.

Small impact craters in the lunar regolith - Their morphologies, relative ages, and rates of formation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moore, H.J.; Boyce, J.M.; Hahn, D.A.

1980-01-01

Apparently, there are two types of size-frequency distributions of small lunar craters (???1-100 m across): (1) crater production distributions for which the cumulative frequency of craters is an inverse function of diameter to power near 2.8, and (2) steady-state distributions for which the cumulative frequency of craters is inversely proportional to the square of their diameters. According to theory, cumulative frequencies of craters in each morphologic category within the steady-state should also be an inverse function of the square of their diameters. Some data on frequency distribution of craters by morphologic types are approximately consistent with theory, whereas other data are inconsistent with theory. A flux of crater producing objects can be inferred from size-frequency distributions of small craters on the flanks and ejecta of craters of known age. Crater frequency distributions and data on the craters Tycho, North Ray, Cone, and South Ray, when compared with the flux of objects measured by the Apollo Passive Seismometer, suggest that the flux of objects has been relatively constant over the last 100 m.y. (within 1/3 to 3 times of the flux estimated for Tycho). Steady-state frequency distributions for craters in several morphologic categories formed the basis for estimating the relative ages of craters and surfaces in a system used during the Apollo landing site mapping program of the U.S. Geological Survey. The relative ages in this system are converted to model absolute ages that have a rather broad range of values. The range of values of the absolute ages are between about 1/3 to 3 times the assigned model absolute age. ?? 1980 D. Reidel Publishing Co.

Absolute measurement of cerebral optical coefficients, hemoglobin concentration and oxygen saturation in old and young adults with near-infrared spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hallacoglu, Bertan; Sassaroli, Angelo; Wysocki, Michael; Guerrero-Berroa, Elizabeth; Schnaider Beeri, Michal; Haroutunian, Vahram; Shaul, Merav; Rosenberg, Irwin H.; Troen, Aron M.; Fantini, Sergio

2012-08-01

We present near-infrared spectroscopy measurement of absolute cerebral hemoglobin concentration and saturation in a large sample of 36 healthy elderly (mean age, 85±6 years) and 19 young adults (mean age, 28±4 years). Non-invasive measurements were obtained on the forehead using a commercially available multi-distance frequency-domain system and analyzed using a diffusion theory model for a semi-infinite, homogeneous medium with semi-infinite boundary conditions. Our study included repeat measurements, taken five months apart, on 16 elderly volunteers that demonstrate intra-subject reproducibility of the absolute measurements with cross-correlation coefficients of 0.9 for absorption coefficient (μa), oxy-hemoglobin concentration ([HbO2]), and total hemoglobin concentration ([HbT]), 0.7 for deoxy-hemoglobin concentration ([Hb]), 0.8 for hemoglobin oxygen saturation (StO2), and 0.7 for reduced scattering coefficient (). We found significant differences between the two age groups. Compared to young subjects, elderly subjects had lower cerebral [HbO2], [Hb], [HbT], and StO2 by 10±4 μM, 4±3 μM, 14±5 μM, and 6%±5%, respectively. Our results demonstrate the reliability and robustness of multi-distance near-infrared spectroscopy measurements based on a homogeneous model in the human forehead on a large sample of human subjects. Absolute, non-invasive optical measurements on the brain, such as those presented here, can significantly advance the development of NIRS technology as a tool for monitoring resting/basal cerebral perfusion, hemodynamics, oxygenation, and metabolism.

Absolute measurement of cerebral optical coefficients, hemoglobin concentration and oxygen saturation in old and young adults with near-infrared spectroscopy.

PubMed

Hallacoglu, Bertan; Sassaroli, Angelo; Wysocki, Michael; Guerrero-Berroa, Elizabeth; Schnaider Beeri, Michal; Haroutunian, Vahram; Shaul, Merav; Rosenberg, Irwin H; Troen, Aron M; Fantini, Sergio

2012-08-01

We present near-infrared spectroscopy measurement of absolute cerebral hemoglobin concentration and saturation in a large sample of 36 healthy elderly (mean age, 85 ± 6 years) and 19 young adults (mean age, 28 ± 4 years). Non-invasive measurements were obtained on the forehead using a commercially available multi-distance frequency-domain system and analyzed using a diffusion theory model for a semi-infinite, homogeneous medium with semi-infinite boundary conditions. Our study included repeat measurements, taken five months apart, on 16 elderly volunteers that demonstrate intra-subject reproducibility of the absolute measurements with cross-correlation coefficients of 0.9 for absorption coefficient (μa), oxy-hemoglobin concentration ([HbO2]), and total hemoglobin concentration ([HbT]), 0.7 for deoxy-hemoglobin concentration ([Hb]), 0.8 for hemoglobin oxygen saturation (StO2), and 0.7 for reduced scattering coefficient (μ's). We found significant differences between the two age groups. Compared to young subjects, elderly subjects had lower cerebral [HbO2], [Hb], [HbT], and StO2 by 10 ± 4 μM, 4 ± 3 μM, 14 ± 5 μM, and 6%±5%, respectively. Our results demonstrate the reliability and robustness of multi-distance near-infrared spectroscopy measurements based on a homogeneous model in the human forehead on a large sample of human subjects. Absolute, non-invasive optical measurements on the brain, such as those presented here, can significantly advance the development of NIRS technology as a tool for monitoring resting/basal cerebral perfusion, hemodynamics, oxygenation, and metabolism.

Dental age estimation in Japanese individuals combining permanent teeth and third molars.

PubMed

Ramanan, Namratha; Thevissen, Patrick; Fleuws, Steffen; Willems, G

2012-12-01

The study aim was, firstly, to verify the Willems et al. model on a Japanese reference sample. Secondly to develop a Japanese reference model based on the Willems et al. method and to verify it. Thirdly to analyze the age prediction performance adding tooth development information of third molars to permanent teeth. Retrospectively 1877 panoramic radiographs were selected in the age range between 1 and 23 years (1248 children, 629 sub-adults). Dental development was registered applying Demirjian 's stages of the mandibular left permanent teeth in children and Köhler stages on the third molars. The children's data were, firstly, used to validate the Willems et al. model (developed a Belgian reference sample), secondly, split ino a training and a test sample. On the training sample a Japanese reference model was developed based on the Willems method. The developed model and the Willems et al; model were verified on the test sample. Regression analysis was used to detect the age prediction performance adding third molar scores to permanent tooth scores. The validated Willems et al. model provided a mean absolute error of 0.85 and 0.75 years in females and males, respectively. The mean absolute error in the verified Willems et al. and the developed Japanese reference model was 0.85, 0.77 and 0.79, 0.75 years in females and males, respectively. On average a negligible change in root mean square error values was detected adding third molar scores to permanent teeth scores. The Belgian sample could be used as a reference model to estimate the age of the Japanese individuals. Combining information from the third molars and permanent teeth was not providing clinically significant improvement of age predictions based on permanent teeth information alone.

Use of nonlinear models for describing scrotal circumference growth in Guzerat bulls raised under grazing conditions.

PubMed

Loaiza-Echeverri, A M; Bergmann, J A G; Toral, F L B; Osorio, J P; Carmo, A S; Mendonça, L F; Moustacas, V S; Henry, M

2013-03-15

The objective was to use various nonlinear models to describe scrotal circumference (SC) growth in Guzerat bulls on three farms in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. The nonlinear models were: Brody, Logistic, Gompertz, Richards, Von Bertalanffy, and Tanaka, where parameter A is the estimated testis size at maturity, B is the integration constant, k is a maturating index and, for the Richards and Tanaka models, m determines the inflection point. In Tanaka, A is an indefinite size of the testis, and B and k adjust the shape and inclination of the curve. A total of 7410 SC records were obtained every 3 months from 1034 bulls with ages varying between 2 and 69 months (<240 days of age = 159; 241-365 days = 451; 366-550 days = 1443; 551-730 days = 1705; and >731 days = 3652 SC measurements). Goodness of fit was evaluated by coefficients of determination (R(2)), error sum of squares, average prediction error (APE), and mean absolute deviation. The Richards model did not reach the convergence criterion. The R(2) were similar for all models (0.68-0.69). The error sum of squares was lowest for the Tanaka model. All models fit the SC data poorly in the early and late periods. Logistic was the model which best estimated SC in the early phase (based on APE and mean absolute deviation). The Tanaka and Logistic models had the lowest APE between 300 and 1600 days of age. The Logistic model was chosen for analysis of the environmental influence on parameters A and k. Based on absolute growth rate, SC increased from 0.019 cm/d, peaking at 0.025 cm/d between 318 and 435 days of age. Farm, year, and season of birth significantly affected size of adult SC and SC growth rate. An increase in SC adult size (parameter A) was accompanied by decreased SC growth rate (parameter k). In conclusion, SC growth in Guzerat bulls was characterized by an accelerated growth phase, followed by decreased growth; this was best represented by the Logistic model. The inflection point occurred at approximately 376 days of age (mean SC of 17.9 cm). We inferred that early selection of testicular size might result in smaller testes at maturity. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The gender- and age-specific 10-year and lifetime absolute fracture risk in Tromsø, Norway.

PubMed

Ahmed, Luai A; Schirmer, Henrik; Bjørnerem, Ashild; Emaus, Nina; Jørgensen, Lone; Størmer, Jan; Joakimsen, Ragnar M

2009-01-01

Aim of this study is to estimate the gender- and age-specific 10-year and lifetime absolute risks of non-vertebral and osteoporotic (included hip, distal forearm and proximal humerus) fractures in a large cohort of men and women. This is a population-based 10 years follow-up study of 26,891 subjects aged 25 years and older in Tromsø, Norway. All non-vertebral fractures were registered from 1995 throughout 2004 by computerized search in radiographic archives. Absolute risks were estimated by life-table method taking into account the competing risk of death. The absolute fracture risk at each year of age was estimated for the next 10 years (10-year risk) or up to the age of 90 years (lifetime risk). The estimated 10-year absolute risk of all non-vertebral fracture was higher in men than women before but not after the age of 45 years. The 10-year absolute risk for non-vertebral and osteoporotic fractures was over 10%, respectively, in men over 65 and 70 years and in women over 45 and 50 years of age. The 10-year absolute risks of hip fractures at the age of 65 and 80 years were 4.2 and 18.6% in men, and 9.0 and 24.0% in women, respectively. The risk estimates for distal forearm and proximal humerus fractures were under 5% in men and 13% in women. The estimated lifetime risks for all fracture locations were higher in women than men at all ages. At the age of 50 years, the risks were 38.1 and 24.8% in men and 67.4 and 55.0% in women for all non-vertebral and osteoporotic fractures, respectively. The estimated gender- and age-specific 10-year and lifetime absolute fracture risk were higher in Tromsø than in other populations. The high lifetime fracture risk reflects the increased burden of fractures in this cohort.

Graphs to estimate an individualized risk of breast cancer.

PubMed

Benichou, J; Gail, M H; Mulvihill, J J

1996-01-01

Clinicians who counsel women about their risk for developing breast cancer need a rapid method to estimate individualized risk (absolute risk), as well as the confidence limits around that point. The Breast Cancer Detection Demonstration Project (BCDDP) model (sometimes called the Gail model) assumes no genetic model and simultaneously incorporates five risk factors, but involves cumbersome calculations and interpolations. This report provides graphs to estimate the absolute risk of breast cancer from the BCDDP model. The BCDDP recruited 280,000 women from 1973 to 1980 who were monitored for 5 years. From this cohort, 2,852 white women developed breast cancer and 3,146 controls were selected, all with complete risk-factor information. The BCDDP model, previously developed from these data, was used to prepare graphs that relate a specific summary relative-risk estimate to the absolute risk of developing breast cancer over intervals of 10, 20, and 30 years. Once a summary relative risk is calculated, the appropriate graph is chosen that shows the 10-, 20-, or 30-year absolute risk of developing breast cancer. A separate graph gives the 95% confidence limits around the point estimate of absolute risk. Once a clinician rules out a single gene trait that predisposes to breast cancer and elicits information on age and four risk factors, the tables and figures permit an estimation of a women's absolute risk of developing breast cancer in the next three decades. These results are intended to be applied to women who undergo regular screening. They should be used only in a formal counseling program to maximize a woman's understanding of the estimates and the proper use of them.

Lifelong obesity in a polygenic mouse model prevents age- and diet-induced glucose intolerance- obesity is no road to late-onset diabetes in mice.

PubMed

Renne, Ulla; Langhammer, Martina; Brenmoehl, Julia; Walz, Christina; Zeissler, Anja; Tuchscherer, Armin; Piechotta, Marion; Wiesner, Rudolf J; Bielohuby, Maximilian; Hoeflich, Andreas

2013-01-01

Visceral obesity holds a central position in the concept of the metabolic syndrome characterized by glucose intolerance in humans. However, until now it is unclear if obesity by itself is responsible for the development of glucose intolerance. We have used a novel polygenic mouse model characterized by genetically fixed obesity (DU6) and addressed age- and high fat diet-dependent glucose tolerance. Phenotype selection over 146 generations increased body weight by about 2.7-fold in male 12-week DU6 mice (P<0.0001) if compared to unselected controls (Fzt:DU). Absolute epididymal fat mass was particularly responsive to weight selection and increased by more than 5-fold (P<0.0001) in male DU6 mice. At an age of 6 weeks DU6 mice consumed about twice as much food if compared to unselected controls (P<0.001). Absolute food consumption was higher at all time points measured in DU6 mice than in Fzt:DU mice. Between 6 and 12 weeks of age, absolute food intake was reduced by 15% in DU6 mice (P<0.001) but not in Fzt:DU mice. In both mouse lines feeding of the high fat diet elevated body mass if compared to the control diet (P<0.05). In contrast to controls, DU6 mice did not display high fat diet-induced increases of epididymal and renal fat. Control mice progressively developed glucose intolerance with advancing age and even more in response to the high fat diet. In contrast, obese DU6 mice did neither develop a glucose intolerant phenotype with progressive age nor when challenged with a high fat diet. Our results from a polygenic mouse model demonstrate that genetically pre-determined and life-long obesity is no precondition of glucose intolerance later in life.

Evidence for self-secondary cratering of Copernican-age continuous ejecta deposits on the Moon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zanetti, M.; Stadermann, A.; Jolliff, B.; Hiesinger, H.; van der Bogert, C. H.; Plescia, J.

2017-12-01

Crater size-frequency distributions on the ejecta blankets of Aristarchus and Tycho Craters are highly variable, resulting in apparent absolute model age differences despite ejecta being emplaced in a geologic instant. Crater populations on impact melt ponds are a factor of 4 less than on the ejecta, and crater density increases with distance from the parent crater rim. Although target material properties may affect crater diameters and in turn crater size-frequency distribution (CSFD) results, they cannot completely reconcile crater density and population differences observed within the ejecta blanket. We infer from the data that self-secondary cratering, the formation of impact craters immediately following the emplacement of the continuous ejecta blanket by ejecta from the parent crater, contributed to the population of small craters (< 300 m diameter) on ejecta blankets and must be taken into account if small craters and small count areas are to be used for relative and absolute model age determinations on the Moon. Our results indicate that the cumulative number of craters larger than 1 km in diameter per unit area, N(1), on the continuous ejecta blanket at Tycho Crater, ranges between 2.17 × 10-5 and 1.0 × 10-4, with impact melt ponds most accurately reflecting the primary crater flux (N(1) = 3.4 × 10-5). Using the cratering flux recorded on Tycho impact melt deposits calibrated to accepted exposure age (109 ± 1.5 Ma) as ground truth, and using similar crater distribution analyses on impact melt at Aristarchus Crater, we infer the age of Aristarchus Crater to be ∼280 Ma. The broader implications of this work suggest that the measured cratering rate on ejecta blankets throughout the Solar System may be overestimated, and caution should be exercised when using small crater diameters (i.e. < 300 m on the Moon) for absolute model age determination.

Breakfast intake among adults with type 2 diabetes: is bigger better?

PubMed Central

Jarvandi, Soghra; Schootman, Mario; Racette, Susan B.

2015-01-01

Objective To assess the association between breakfast energy and total daily energy intake among individuals with type 2 diabetes. Design Cross-sectional study. Daily energy intake was computed from a 24-h dietary recall. Multiple regression models were used to estimate the association between daily energy intake (dependent variable) and quartiles of energy intake at breakfast (independent variable) expressed as either absolute or relative (% of total daily energy intake) terms. Orthogonal polynomial contrasts were used to test for linear and quadratic trends. Models were controlled for sex, age, race/ethnicity, body mass index, physical activity and smoking. In addition, we used separate multiple regression models to test the effect of quartiles of absolute and relative breakfast energy on intake at lunch, dinner, and snacks. Setting The 1999–2004 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Subjects Participants aged ≥ 30 years with self-reported history of diabetes (N = 1,146). Results Daily energy intake increased as absolute breakfast energy intake increased (linear trend, P < 0.0001; quadratic trend, P = 0.02), but decreased as relative breakfast energy intake increased (linear trend, P < 0.0001). In addition, while higher quartiles of absolute breakfast intake had no associations with energy intake at subsequent meals, higher quartiles of relative breakfast intake were associated with lower energy intake during all subsequent meals and snacks (P < 0.05). Conclusions Consuming a breakfast that provided less energy or comprised a greater proportion of daily energy intake was associated with lower total daily energy intake in adults with type 2 diabetes. PMID:25529061

Age-specific absolute and relative organ weight distributions for B6C3F1 mice.

PubMed

Marino, Dale J

2012-01-01

The B6C3F1 mouse is the standard mouse strain used in toxicology studies conducted by the National Cancer Institute (NCI) and the National Toxicology Program (NTP). While numerous reports have been published on growth, survival, and tumor incidence, no overall compilation of organ weight data is available. Importantly, organ weight change is an endpoint used by regulatory agencies to develop toxicity reference values (TRVs) for use in human health risk assessments. Furthermore, physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models, which utilize relative organ weights, are increasingly being used to develop TRVs. Therefore, all available absolute and relative organ weight data for untreated control B6C3F1 mice were collected from NCI/NTP studies in order to develop age-specific distributions. Results show that organ weights were collected more frequently in NCI/NTP studies at 2-wk (60 studies), 3-mo (147 studies), and 15-mo (40 studies) intervals than at other intervals, and more frequently from feeding and inhalation than drinking water studies. Liver, right kidney, lung, heart, thymus, and brain weights were most frequently collected. From the collected data, the mean and standard deviation for absolute and relative organ weights were calculated. Results show age-related increases in absolute liver, right kidney, lung, and heart weights and relatively stable brain and right testis weights. The results suggest a general variability trend in absolute organ weights of brain < right testis < right kidney < heart < liver < lung < spleen < thymus. This report describes the results of this effort.

A Strict Test of Stellar Evolution Models: The Absolute Dimensions of the Massive Benchmark Eclipsing Binary V578 Mon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia, E. V.; Stassun, Keivan G.; Pavlovski, K.; Hensberge, H.; Gómez Maqueo Chew, Y.; Claret, A.

2014-09-01

We determine the absolute dimensions of the eclipsing binary V578 Mon, a detached system of two early B-type stars (B0V + B1V, P = 2.40848 days) in the star-forming region NGC 2244 of the Rosette Nebula. From the light curve analysis of 40 yr of photometry and the analysis of HERMES spectra, we find radii of 5.41 ± 0.04 R⊙ and 4.29 ± 0.05 R⊙, and temperatures of 30,000 ± 500 K and 25,750 ± 435 K, respectively. We find that our disentangled component spectra for V578 Mon agree well with previous spectral disentangling from the literature. We also reconfirm the previous spectroscopic orbit of V578 Mon finding that masses of 14.54 ± 0.08 M⊙ and 10.29 ± 0.06 M⊙ are fully compatible with the new analysis. We compare the absolute dimensions to the rotating models of the Geneva and Utrecht groups and the models of the Granada group. We find that all three sets of models marginally reproduce the absolute dimensions of both stars with a common age within the uncertainty for gravity-effective temperature isochrones. However, there are some apparent age discrepancies for the corresponding mass-radius isochrones. Models with larger convective overshoot, >0.35, worked best. Combined with our previously determined apsidal motion of 0.07089^{+0.00021}_{-0.00013} deg cycle-1, we compute the internal structure constants (tidal Love number) for the Newtonian and general relativistic contribution to the apsidal motion as log k 2 = -1.975 ± 0.017 and log k 2 = -3.412 ± 0.018, respectively. We find the relativistic contribution to the apsidal motion to be small, <4%. We find that the prediction of log k 2, theo = -2.005 ± 0.025 of the Granada models fully agrees with our observed log k 2.

Speech intelligibility index predictions for young and old listeners in automobile noise: Can the index be improved by incorporating factors other than absolute threshold?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saweikis, Meghan; Surprenant, Aimée M.; Davies, Patricia; Gallant, Don

2003-10-01

While young and old subjects with comparable audiograms tend to perform comparably on speech recognition tasks in quiet environments, the older subjects have more difficulty than the younger subjects with recognition tasks in degraded listening conditions. This suggests that factors other than an absolute threshold may account for some of the difficulty older listeners have on recognition tasks in noisy environments. Many metrics, including the Speech Intelligibility Index (SII), used to measure speech intelligibility, only consider an absolute threshold when accounting for age related hearing loss. Therefore these metrics tend to overestimate the performance for elderly listeners in noisy environments [Tobias et al., J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 83, 859-895 (1988)]. The present studies examine the predictive capabilities of the SII in an environment with automobile noise present. This is of interest because people's evaluation of the automobile interior sound is closely linked to their ability to carry on conversations with their fellow passengers. The four studies examine whether, for subjects with age related hearing loss, the accuracy of the SII can be improved by incorporating factors other than an absolute threshold into the model. [Work supported by Ford Motor Company.

German Views of Irregular Warfare

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-06-01

closely observed much of the Napoleonic Wars (1803–1815). His military experiences occurred during the end of the Age of Absolutism10 in Europe when...10 The Age of Absolutism refers to a period when absolute monarchs controlled much of Europe and is commonly considered to...concluded with a chapter related to irregular warfare and the nuclear age and an appendix dedicated to the training notes of the famed English

Income and functional limitations among the aged in Europe: a trend analysis in 16 countries.

PubMed

von dem Knesebeck, Olaf; Vonneilich, Nico; Lüdecke, Daniel

2017-06-01

Analyses are focused on 3 research questions: (1) Are there absolute and relative income-related inequalities in functional limitations among the aged in Europe? (2) Did the absolute and relative income-related inequalities in functional limitations among the aged change between 2002 and 2014? (3) Are there differences in the changes of income-related inequalities between European countries? Data stem from 7 waves (2002-2014) of the European Social Survey. Samples of people aged 60 years or older from 16 European countries were analysed (N=63 024). Inequalities were measured by means of absolute prevalence rate differences and relative prevalence rate ratios of low versus high income. Meta-analyses with random-effect models were used to study the trends of inequalities in functional limitations over time. Functional limitations among people aged 60 years or older declined between 2002 and 2014 in most of the 16 European countries. Older people with a low income had higher rates of functional limitations and elevated rate ratios compared with people with high income. These inequalities were significant in many countries and were more pronounced among men than among women. Overall, absolute and relative income-related inequalities increased between 2002 and 2014, especially in Ireland, the Netherlands and Sweden. High-income groups are more in favour of the observed overall decline in functional limitations than deprived groups. Results point to potential income-related inequalities in compression of morbidity in the recent past in Europe. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Risk Prediction for Epithelial Ovarian Cancer in 11 United States–Based Case-Control Studies: Incorporation of Epidemiologic Risk Factors and 17 Confirmed Genetic Loci

PubMed Central

Clyde, Merlise A.; Palmieri Weber, Rachel; Iversen, Edwin S.; Poole, Elizabeth M.; Doherty, Jennifer A.; Goodman, Marc T.; Ness, Roberta B.; Risch, Harvey A.; Rossing, Mary Anne; Terry, Kathryn L.; Wentzensen, Nicolas; Whittemore, Alice S.; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Bandera, Elisa V.; Berchuck, Andrew; Carney, Michael E.; Cramer, Daniel W.; Cunningham, Julie M.; Cushing-Haugen, Kara L.; Edwards, Robert P.; Fridley, Brooke L.; Goode, Ellen L.; Lurie, Galina; McGuire, Valerie; Modugno, Francesmary; Moysich, Kirsten B.; Olson, Sara H.; Pearce, Celeste Leigh; Pike, Malcolm C.; Rothstein, Joseph H.; Sellers, Thomas A.; Sieh, Weiva; Stram, Daniel; Thompson, Pamela J.; Vierkant, Robert A.; Wicklund, Kristine G.; Wu, Anna H.; Ziogas, Argyrios; Tworoger, Shelley S.; Schildkraut, Joellen M.

2016-01-01

Previously developed models for predicting absolute risk of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer have included a limited number of risk factors and have had low discriminatory power (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) < 0.60). Because of this, we developed and internally validated a relative risk prediction model that incorporates 17 established epidemiologic risk factors and 17 genome-wide significant single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) using data from 11 case-control studies in the United States (5,793 cases; 9,512 controls) from the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium (data accrued from 1992 to 2010). We developed a hierarchical logistic regression model for predicting case-control status that included imputation of missing data. We randomly divided the data into an 80% training sample and used the remaining 20% for model evaluation. The AUC for the full model was 0.664. A reduced model without SNPs performed similarly (AUC = 0.649). Both models performed better than a baseline model that included age and study site only (AUC = 0.563). The best predictive power was obtained in the full model among women younger than 50 years of age (AUC = 0.714); however, the addition of SNPs increased the AUC the most for women older than 50 years of age (AUC = 0.638 vs. 0.616). Adapting this improved model to estimate absolute risk and evaluating it in prospective data sets is warranted. PMID:27698005

The fossilized birth–death process for coherent calibration of divergence-time estimates

PubMed Central

Heath, Tracy A.; Huelsenbeck, John P.; Stadler, Tanja

2014-01-01

Time-calibrated species phylogenies are critical for addressing a wide range of questions in evolutionary biology, such as those that elucidate historical biogeography or uncover patterns of coevolution and diversification. Because molecular sequence data are not informative on absolute time, external data—most commonly, fossil age estimates—are required to calibrate estimates of species divergence dates. For Bayesian divergence time methods, the common practice for calibration using fossil information involves placing arbitrarily chosen parametric distributions on internal nodes, often disregarding most of the information in the fossil record. We introduce the “fossilized birth–death” (FBD) process—a model for calibrating divergence time estimates in a Bayesian framework, explicitly acknowledging that extant species and fossils are part of the same macroevolutionary process. Under this model, absolute node age estimates are calibrated by a single diversification model and arbitrary calibration densities are not necessary. Moreover, the FBD model allows for inclusion of all available fossils. We performed analyses of simulated data and show that node age estimation under the FBD model results in robust and accurate estimates of species divergence times with realistic measures of statistical uncertainty, overcoming major limitations of standard divergence time estimation methods. We used this model to estimate the speciation times for a dataset composed of all living bears, indicating that the genus Ursus diversified in the Late Miocene to Middle Pliocene. PMID:25009181

The Potassium-Argon Laser Experiment (KArLE): Design Concepts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cho, Y.; Cohen, B. A.

2017-01-01

The absolute ages of geologic events are fundamental information for understanding the timing and duration of surface processes on planetary bodies. Absolute ages can place a planet's history in the context of the solar system evolution. For example, "when was Mars warm and wet?" is one of the key questions of planetary science. If Mars was warm and wet until 3.7 billion years ago, for instance, it suggests that Mars was still warm and wet when life appeared on Earth. Mars history has been discussed so far based on crater chronology, but the current constraints for Martian chronology models come from the cratering history of the Moon [1]. Moreover, the lunar chronology model itself is fraught with uncertainty because our understanding of lunar chronology is constrained only in a few time periods and itself needs further investigation relating crater-counting ages to absolute ages [2]. Although sample return missions would provide highly accurate radiometric ages of returned samples, they are very expensive and technically challenging. In situ geochronology is highly valuable because they would have larger number of mission opportunities and the capability of iterative measurements for multiple rocks from multiple geologic units. The capability of flight instruments to perform in situ dating is required in the NASA Planetary Science Decadal Survey and the NASA Technology Roadmap. Beagle 2 is the only mission launched to date with the explicit aim to perform in situ potassium-argon (K-Ar) dating [3], but it did not happen because of the communication failure to the spacecraft. The first in situ K-Ar dating on Mars, using SAM and APXS measurements on the Cumberland mudstone [4], yielded an age of 4.21 +/- 0.35 Ga and validated the idea of K-Ar dating on other planets. However, the Curiosity method is not purposebuilt for dating and requires many assumptions that degrade its accuracy. To obtain more accurate and meaningful ages, multiple groups are developing dedicated in situ dating instruments [5-8].

Novel Associations between Common Breast Cancer Susceptibility Variants and Risk-Predicting Mammographic Density Measures

PubMed Central

Stone, Jennifer; Thompson, Deborah J.; dos-Santos-Silva, Isabel; Scott, Christopher; Tamimi, Rulla M.; Lindstrom, Sara; Kraft, Peter; Hazra, Aditi; Li, Jingmei; Eriksson, Louise; Czene, Kamila; Hall, Per; Jensen, Matt; Cunningham, Julie; Olson, Janet E.; Purrington, Kristen; Couch, Fergus J.; Brown, Judith; Leyland, Jean; Warren, Ruth M. L.; Luben, Robert N.; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Smith, Paula; Wareham, Nicholas J.; Jud, Sebastian M.; Heusinger, Katharina; Beckmann, Matthias W.; Douglas, Julie A.; Shah, Kaanan P.; Chan, Heang-Ping; Helvie, Mark A.; Le Marchand, Loic; Kolonel, Laurence N.; Woolcott, Christy; Maskarinec, Gertraud; Haiman, Christopher; Giles, Graham G.; Baglietto, Laura; Krishnan, Kavitha; Southey, Melissa C.; Apicella, Carmel; Andrulis, Irene L.; Knight, Julia A.; Ursin, Giske; Grenaker Alnaes, Grethe I.; Kristensen, Vessela N.; Borresen-Dale, Anne-Lise; Gram, Inger Torhild; Bolla, Manjeet K.; Wang, Qin; Michailidou, Kyriaki; Dennis, Joe; Simard, Jacques; Paroah, Paul; Dunning, Alison M.; Easton, Douglas F.; Fasching, Peter A.; Pankratz, V. Shane; Hopper, John; Vachon, Celine M.

2015-01-01

Mammographic density measures adjusted for age and body mass index (BMI) are heritable predictors of breast cancer risk but few mammographic density-associated genetic variants have been identified. Using data for 10,727 women from two international consortia, we estimated associations between 77 common breast cancer susceptibility variants and absolute dense area, percent dense area and absolute non-dense area adjusted for study, age and BMI using mixed linear modeling. We found strong support for established associations between rs10995190 (in the region of ZNF365), rs2046210 (ESR1) and rs3817198 (LSP1) and adjusted absolute and percent dense areas (all p <10−5). Of 41 recently discovered breast cancer susceptibility variants, associations were found between rs1432679 (EBF1), rs17817449 (MIR1972-2: FTO), rs12710696 (2p24.1), and rs3757318 (ESR1) and adjusted absolute and percent dense areas, respectively. There were associations between rs6001930 (MKL1) and both adjusted absolute dense and non-dense areas, and between rs17356907 (NTN4) and adjusted absolute non-dense area. Trends in all but two associations were consistent with those for breast cancer risk. Results suggested that 18% of breast cancer susceptibility variants were associated with at least one mammographic density measure. Genetic variants at multiple loci were associated with both breast cancer risk and the mammographic density measures. Further understanding of the underlying mechanisms at these loci could help identify etiological pathways implicated in how mammographic density predicts breast cancer risk. PMID:25862352

Projecting Individualized Absolute Invasive Breast Cancer Risk in US Hispanic Women

PubMed Central

John, Esther M.; Slattery, Martha L.; Gomez, Scarlett Lin; Yu, Mandi; LaCroix, Andrea Z.; Pee, David; Chlebowski, Rowan T.; Hines, Lisa M.; Thompson, Cynthia A.; Gail, Mitchell H.

2017-01-01

Background: There is no model to estimate absolute invasive breast cancer risk for Hispanic women. Methods: The San Francisco Bay Area Breast Cancer Study (SFBCS) provided data on Hispanic breast cancer case patients (533 US-born, 553 foreign-born) and control participants (464 US-born, 947 foreign-born). These data yielded estimates of relative risk (RR) and attributable risk (AR) separately for US-born and foreign-born women. Nativity-specific absolute risks were estimated by combining RR and AR information with nativity-specific invasive breast cancer incidence and competing mortality rates from the California Cancer Registry and Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program to develop the Hispanic risk model (HRM). In independent data, we assessed model calibration through observed/expected (O/E) ratios, and we estimated discriminatory accuracy with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) statistic. Results: The US-born HRM included age at first full-term pregnancy, biopsy for benign breast disease, and family history of breast cancer; the foreign-born HRM also included age at menarche. The HRM estimated lower risks than the National Cancer Institute’s Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (BCRAT) for US-born Hispanic women, but higher risks in foreign-born women. In independent data from the Women’s Health Initiative, the HRM was well calibrated for US-born women (observed/expected [O/E] ratio = 1.07, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.81 to 1.40), but seemed to overestimate risk in foreign-born women (O/E ratio = 0.66, 95% CI = 0.41 to 1.07). The AUC was 0.564 (95% CI = 0.485 to 0.644) for US-born and 0.625 (95% CI = 0.487 to 0.764) for foreign-born women. Conclusions: The HRM is the first absolute risk model that is based entirely on data specific to Hispanic women by nativity. Further studies in Hispanic women are warranted to evaluate its validity. PMID:28003316

Energy cost of activities in preschool-aged children

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The absolute energy cost of activities in children increase with age due to greater muscle mass and physical capability associated with growth and developmental maturation; however, there is a paucity of data in preschool-aged children. Study aims were 1) to describe absolute and relative energy cos...

A strict test of stellar evolution models: The absolute dimensions of the massive benchmark eclipsing binary V578 Mon

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Garcia, E. V.; Stassun, Keivan G.; Pavlovski, K.

We determine the absolute dimensions of the eclipsing binary V578 Mon, a detached system of two early B-type stars (B0V + B1V, P = 2.40848 days) in the star-forming region NGC 2244 of the Rosette Nebula. From the light curve analysis of 40 yr of photometry and the analysis of HERMES spectra, we find radii of 5.41 ± 0.04 R{sub ☉} and 4.29 ± 0.05 R{sub ☉}, and temperatures of 30,000 ± 500 K and 25,750 ± 435 K, respectively. We find that our disentangled component spectra for V578 Mon agree well with previous spectral disentangling from the literature. Wemore » also reconfirm the previous spectroscopic orbit of V578 Mon finding that masses of 14.54 ± 0.08 M{sub ☉} and 10.29 ± 0.06 M{sub ☉} are fully compatible with the new analysis. We compare the absolute dimensions to the rotating models of the Geneva and Utrecht groups and the models of the Granada group. We find that all three sets of models marginally reproduce the absolute dimensions of both stars with a common age within the uncertainty for gravity-effective temperature isochrones. However, there are some apparent age discrepancies for the corresponding mass-radius isochrones. Models with larger convective overshoot, >0.35, worked best. Combined with our previously determined apsidal motion of 0.07089{sub −0.00013}{sup +0.00021} deg cycle{sup –1}, we compute the internal structure constants (tidal Love number) for the Newtonian and general relativistic contribution to the apsidal motion as log k {sub 2} = –1.975 ± 0.017 and log k {sub 2} = –3.412 ± 0.018, respectively. We find the relativistic contribution to the apsidal motion to be small, <4%. We find that the prediction of log k {sub 2,theo} = –2.005 ± 0.025 of the Granada models fully agrees with our observed log k {sub 2}.« less

Male breast cancer incidence and mortality risk in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors – Differences in excess relative and absolute risk from female breast cancer

DOE PAGES

Little, Mark P.; McElvenny, Damien M.

2016-06-10

There are well-known associations of ionizing radiation with female breast cancer, and emerging evidence also for male breast cancer. In the UK, female breast cancer following occupational radiation exposure is among that set of cancers eligible for state compensation and consideration is currently being given to an extension to include male breast cancer. The objectives here, compare radiation-associated excess relative and absolute risks of male and female breast cancers. Breast cancer incidence and mortality data in the Japanese atomic-bomb survivors were analyzed using relative and absolute risk models via Poisson regression. As a result, we observed significant ( p≤ 0.01)more » dose-related excess risk for male breast cancer incidence and mortality. For incidence and mortality data, there are approximate 15-fold and 5- fold elevations, respectively, of relative risk for male compared with female breast cancer incidence, the former borderline significant (p = 0.050). In contrast, for incidence and mortality data there are approximate 20-fold and 10-fold elevations, respectively, of female absolute risk compared with male, both statistically significant (p < 0.001). There are no indications of differences between the sexes in age/time-since-exposure/age-at-exposure modifications to the relative or absolute excess risk. The probability of causation of male breast cancer following radiation exposure exceeds by at least 5-fold that of many other malignancies. In conclusion, there is evidence of much higher radiation-associated relative risk for male than for female breast cancer, although absolute excess risks for males are much less than for females. However, the small number of male cases and deaths suggests a degree of caution in interpretation of this finding.« less

Male breast cancer incidence and mortality risk in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors – Differences in excess relative and absolute risk from female breast cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Little, Mark P.; McElvenny, Damien M.

There are well-known associations of ionizing radiation with female breast cancer, and emerging evidence also for male breast cancer. In the UK, female breast cancer following occupational radiation exposure is among that set of cancers eligible for state compensation and consideration is currently being given to an extension to include male breast cancer. The objectives here, compare radiation-associated excess relative and absolute risks of male and female breast cancers. Breast cancer incidence and mortality data in the Japanese atomic-bomb survivors were analyzed using relative and absolute risk models via Poisson regression. As a result, we observed significant ( p≤ 0.01)more » dose-related excess risk for male breast cancer incidence and mortality. For incidence and mortality data, there are approximate 15-fold and 5- fold elevations, respectively, of relative risk for male compared with female breast cancer incidence, the former borderline significant (p = 0.050). In contrast, for incidence and mortality data there are approximate 20-fold and 10-fold elevations, respectively, of female absolute risk compared with male, both statistically significant (p < 0.001). There are no indications of differences between the sexes in age/time-since-exposure/age-at-exposure modifications to the relative or absolute excess risk. The probability of causation of male breast cancer following radiation exposure exceeds by at least 5-fold that of many other malignancies. In conclusion, there is evidence of much higher radiation-associated relative risk for male than for female breast cancer, although absolute excess risks for males are much less than for females. However, the small number of male cases and deaths suggests a degree of caution in interpretation of this finding.« less

Age, body mass, and gender as predictors of masters olympic weightlifting performance.

PubMed

Thé, Dwight J; Ploutz-Snyder, Lori

2003-07-01

The purpose of this study was to examine previously collected performance scores from the 2000 World Masters Weightlifting Championships to 1). determine the extent to which age and body mass are related to and predictive of indirect estimates of absolute and relative muscular power, and 2). assess possible gender differences in these associations. Dependent variables were absolute load (ABS = heaviest snatch [kg] + heaviest clean and jerk [kg]) and relative load (REL = ABS [kg]/body mass [kg]), representing indirect estimates of absolute and relative muscular power, respectively. Predictor variables were age (yr) and body mass (kg). Linear regression and various diagnostic procedures were used to analyze the data. The linear model provided an adequate fit for the data because no departures from the usual assumptions of normally distributed variables and homoscedastic error variance were observed. All predictor variables were significantly (P < 0.05) predictive of the dependent variables, but the magnitude of associations (e.g., R(ABS|BM) = 0.18 among females vs R(ABS|BM) = 0.57 among males) and extent of predictive ability (e.g., R(adj)2 for regression of ABS on age and body mass was 0.18-0.58 among females vs 0.74-0.83 among males) were significantly (P < 0.05) higher among males versus females. The extent to which age and body mass explain differences in muscular power differs between female and male masters weightlifters, but the rate of decline (%.yr-1) in power with advancing age is similar and is in agreement with previous reports for world record holders, other masters athletes, and healthy, untrained individuals, suggesting the importance of the aging process itself over physical activity history.

Male Breast Cancer Incidence and Mortality Risk in the Japanese Atomic Bomb Survivors - Differences in Excess Relative and Absolute Risk from Female Breast Cancer.

PubMed

Little, Mark P; McElvenny, Damien M

2017-02-01

There are well-known associations of ionizing radiation with female breast cancer, and emerging evidence also for male breast cancer. In the United Kingdom, female breast cancer following occupational radiation exposure is among that set of cancers eligible for state compensation and consideration is currently being given to an extension to include male breast cancer. We compare radiation-associated excess relative and absolute risks of male and female breast cancers. Breast cancer incidence and mortality data in the Japanese atomic-bomb survivors were analyzed using relative and absolute risk models via Poisson regression. We observed significant (p ≤ 0.01) dose-related excess risk for male breast cancer incidence and mortality. For incidence and mortality data, there are elevations by factors of approximately 15 and 5, respectively, of relative risk for male compared with female breast cancer incidence, the former borderline significant (p = 0.050). In contrast, for incidence and mortality data, there are elevations by factors of approximately 20 and 10, respectively, of female absolute risk compared with male, both statistically significant (p < 0.001). There are no indications of differences between the sexes in age/time-since-exposure/age-at-exposure modifications to the relative or absolute excess risk. The probability of causation of male breast cancer following radiation exposure exceeds by at least a factor of 5 that of many other malignancies. There is evidence of much higher radiation-associated relative risk for male than for female breast cancer, although absolute excess risks for males are much less than for females. However, the small number of male cases and deaths suggests a degree of caution in interpretation of this finding. Citation: Little MP, McElvenny DM. 2017. Male breast cancer incidence and mortality risk in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors - differences in excess relative and absolute risk from female breast cancer. Environ Health Perspect 125:223-229; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP151.

Absolute and estimated values of macular pigment optical density in young and aged Asian participants with or without age-related macular degeneration.

PubMed

Ozawa, Yoko; Shigeno, Yuta; Nagai, Norihiro; Suzuki, Misa; Kurihara, Toshihide; Minami, Sakiko; Hirano, Eri; Shinoda, Hajime; Kobayashi, Saori; Tsubota, Kazuo

2017-08-29

Lutein and zeaxanthin are suggested micronutrient supplements to prevent the progression of age-related macular degeneration (AMD), a leading cause of blindness worldwide. To monitor the levels of lutein/zeaxanthin in the macula, macular pigment optical density (MPOD) is measured. A commercially available device (MPSII®, Elektron Technology, Switzerland), using technology based on heterochromatic flicker photometry, can measure both absolute and estimated values of MPOD. However, whether the estimated value is applicable to Asian individuals and/or AMD patients remains to be determined. The absolute and estimated values of MPOD were measured using the MPSII® device in 77 participants with a best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) > 0.099 (logMAR score). The studied eyes included 17 young (20-29 years) healthy, 26 aged (>50 years) healthy, 18 aged and AMD-fellow, and 16 aged AMD eyes. The mean BCVA among the groups were not significantly different. Both absolute and estimated values were measurable in all eyes of young healthy group. However, absolute values were measurable in only 57.7%, 66.7%, and 43.8%, of the aged healthy, AMD-fellow, and AMD groups, respectively, and 56.7% of the eyes included in the 3 aged groups. In contrast, the estimated value was measurable in 84.6%, 88.9% and 93.8% of the groups, respectively, and 88.3% of eyes in the pooled aged group. The estimated value was correlated with absolute value in individuals from all groups by Spearman's correlation coefficient analyses (young healthy: R 2  = 0.885, P = 0.0001; aged healthy: R 2  = 0.765, P = 0.001; AMD-fellow: R 2  = 0.851, P = 0.0001; and AMD: R 2  = 0.860, P = 0.013). Using the estimated value, significantly lower MPOD values were found in aged AMD-related eyes, which included both AMD-fellow and AMD eyes, compared with aged healthy eyes by Student's t-test (P = 0.02). Absolute, in contrast to estimated, value was measurable in a limited number of aged participants; however, it was correlated with estimated value both in young and aged Asian populations with or without AMD. These results may inform future clinical studies investigating the measurement of MPOD in understanding the role of macular pigments in the pathogenesis of AMD.

Developing a Relationship Between LIBS Ablation and Pit Volume for In Situ Dating of Geologic Samples

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Devismes, D.; Cohen, B. A.; Gillot, P.-Y.

2015-01-01

In planetary exploration, in situ absolute geochronology is an important measurement. Thus far, on Mars, the age of the surface has largely been determined by crater density counting, which gives relative ages. These ages can have significant uncertainty as they depend on many poorly constrained parameters. More than that, the curves must be tied to absolute ages to relate geologic timescales on Mars to the rest of the solar system. Thus far, only the lost lander Beagle 2 was designed to conduct absolute geochronology measurements, though some recent attempts using MSL Curiosity show that this investigation is feasible (Reference Farley here) and should be strongly encouraged for future flight.

Changes Over Time in Absolute and Relative Socioeconomic Differences in Smoking: A Comparison of Cohort Studies From Britain, Finland, and Japan

PubMed Central

Pietiläinen, Olli; Ferrie, Jane; Kivimäki, Mika; Lahti, Jouni; Marmot, Michael; Rahkonen, Ossi; Sekine, Michikazu; Shipley, Martin; Tatsuse, Takashi; Lallukka, Tea

2016-01-01

Introduction: Socioeconomic differences in smoking over time and across national contexts are poorly understood. We assessed the magnitude of relative and absolute social class differences in smoking in cohorts from Britain, Finland, and Japan over 5–7 years. Methods: The British Whitehall II study (n = 4350), Finnish Helsinki Health Study (n = 6328), and Japanese Civil Servants Study (n = 1993) all included employed men and women aged 35–68 at baseline in 1997–2002. Follow-up was in 2003–2007 (mean follow-up 5.1, 6.5, and 3.6 years, respectively). Occupational social class (managers, professionals and clerical employees) was measured at baseline. Current smoking and covariates (age, marital status, body mass index, and self-rated health) were measured at baseline and follow-up. We assessed relative social class differences using the Relative Index of Inequality and absolute differences using the Slope Index of Inequality. Results: Social class differences in smoking were found in Britain and Finland, but not in Japan. Age-adjusted relative differences at baseline ranged from Relative Index of Inequality 3.08 (95% confidence interval 1.99–4.78) among Finnish men to 2.32 (1.24–4.32) among British women, with differences at follow-up greater by 8%–58%. Absolute differences remained stable and varied from Slope Index of Inequality 0.27 (0.15–0.40) among Finnish men to 0.10 (0.03–0.16) among British women. Further adjustment for covariates had modest effects on inequality indices. Conclusions: Large social class differences in smoking persisted among British and Finnish men and women, with widening tendencies in relative differences over time. No differences could be confirmed among Japanese men or women. Implications: Changes over time in social class differences in smoking are poorly understood across countries. Our study focused on employees from Britain, Finland and Japan, and found relative and absolute and class differences among British and Finnish men and women. Key covariates had modest effects on the differences. Relative differences tended to widen over the 4- to 7-year follow-up, whereas absolute differences remained stable. In contrast, class differences in smoking among Japanese men or women were not found. Britain and Finland are at the late stage of the smoking epidemic model, whereas Japan may not follow the same model. PMID:26764256

Age estimation based on pulp chamber volume of first molars from cone-beam computed tomography images.

PubMed

Ge, Zhi-pu; Ma, Ruo-han; Li, Gang; Zhang, Ji-zong; Ma, Xu-chen

2015-08-01

To establish a method that can be used for human age estimation on the basis of pulp chamber volume of first molars and to identify whether the method is good enough for age estimation in real human cases. CBCT images of 373 maxillary first molars and 372 mandibular first molars were collected to establish the mathematical model from 190 female and 213 male patients whose age between 12 and 69 years old. The inclusion criteria of the first molars were: no caries, no excessive tooth wear, no dental restorations, no artifacts due to metal restorative materials present in adjacent teeth, and no pulpal calcification. All the CBCT images were acquired with a CBCT unit NewTom VG (Quantitative Radiology, Verona, Italy) and reconstructed with a voxel-size of 0.15mm. The images were subsequently exported as DICOM data sets and imported into an open source 3D image semi-automatic segmenting and voxel-counting software ITK-SNAP 2.4 for the calculation of pulp chamber volumes. A logarithmic regression analysis was conducted with age as dependent variable and pulp chamber volume as independent variables to establish a mathematical model for the human age estimation. To identify the precision and accuracy of the model for human age estimation, another 104 maxillary first molars and 103 mandibular first molars from 55 female and 57 male patients whose age between 12 and 67 years old were collected, too. Mean absolute error and root mean square error between the actual age and estimated age were used to determine the precision and accuracy of the mathematical model. The study was approved by the Institutional Review Board of Peking University School and Hospital of Stomatology. A mathematical model was suggested for: AGE=117.691-26.442×ln (pulp chamber volume). The regression was statistically significant (p=0.000<0.01). The coefficient of determination (R(2)) was 0.564. There is a mean absolute error of 8.122 and root mean square error of 5.603 between the actual age and estimated age for all the tested teeth. The pulp chamber volume of first molar is a useful index for the estimation of human age with reasonable precision and accuracy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The influence of maturation, body size and physical self-perceptions on longitudinal changes in physical activity in adolescent girls.

PubMed

Fawkner, Samantha; Henretty, Joan; Knowles, Ann-Marie; Nevill, Alan; Niven, Ailsa

2014-01-01

The aim of this study was to adopt a longitudinal design to explore the direct effects of both absolute and relative maturation and changes in body size on physical activity, and explore if, and how, physical self-perceptions might mediate this effect. We recruited 208 girls (11.8 ± 0.4 years) at baseline. Data were collected at three subsequent time points, each 6 months apart. At 18 months, 119 girls remained in the study. At each time point, girls completed the Physical Activity Questionnaire for Children, the Pubertal Development Scale (from which, both a measure of relative and absolute maturation were defined) and the Physical Self-Perception Profile, and had physical size characteristics assessed. Multilevel modelling for physical activity indicated a significant negative effect of age, positive effect for physical condition and sport competence and positive association for relatively early maturers. Absolute maturation, body mass, waist circumference and sum of skinfolds did not significantly contribute to the model. Contrary to common hypotheses, relatively more mature girls may, in fact, be more active than their less mature peers. However, neither changes in absolute maturation nor physical size appear to directly influence changes in physical activity in adolescent girls.

Portrait of socio-economic inequality in childhood morbidity and mortality over time, Québec, 1990-2005.

PubMed

Barry, Mamadou S; Auger, Nathalie; Burrows, Stephanie

2012-06-01

To determine the age and cause groups contributing to absolute and relative socio-economic inequalities in paediatric mortality, hospitalisation and tumour incidence over time. Deaths (n= 9559), hospitalisations (n= 834,932) and incident tumours (n= 4555) were obtained for five age groupings (<1, 1-4, 5-9, 10-14, 15-19 years) and four periods (1990-1993, 1994-1997, 1998-2001, 2002-2005) for Québec, Canada. Age- and cause-specific morbidity and mortality rates for males and females were calculated across socio-economic status decile based on a composite deprivation score for 89 urban communities. Absolute and relative measures of inequality were computed for each age and cause. Mortality and morbidity rates tended to decrease over time, as did absolute and relative socio-economic inequalities for most (but not all) causes and age groups, although precision was low. Socio-economic inequalities persisted in the last period and were greater on the absolute scale for mortality and hospitalisation in early childhood, and on the relative scale for mortality in adolescents. Four causes (respiratory, digestive, infectious, genito-urinary diseases) contributed to the majority of absolute inequality in hospitalisation (males 85%, females 98%). Inequalities were not pronounced for cause-specific mortality and not apparent for tumour incidence. Socio-economic inequalities in Québec tended to narrow for most but not all outcomes. Absolute socio-economic inequalities persisted for children <10 years, and several causes were responsible for the majority of inequality in hospitalisation. Public health policies and prevention programs aiming to reduce socio-economic inequalities in paediatric health should account for trends that differ across age and cause of disease. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Paediatrics and Child Health © 2011 Paediatrics and Child Health Division (Royal Australasian College of Physicians).

Gout and subsequent erectile dysfunction: a population-based cohort study from England.

PubMed

Abdul Sultan, Alyshah; Mallen, Christian; Hayward, Richard; Muller, Sara; Whittle, Rebecca; Hotston, Matthew; Roddy, Edward

2017-06-06

An association has been suggested between gout and erectile dysfunction (ED), however studies quantifying the risk of ED amongst gout patients are lacking. We aimed to precisely determine the population-level absolute and relative rate of ED reporting among men with gout over a decade in England. We utilised the UK-based Clinical Practice Research Datalink to identify 9653 men with incident gout age- and practice-matched to 38,218 controls. Absolute and relative rates of incident ED were calculated using Cox regression models. Absolute rates within specific time periods before and after gout diagnosis were compared to control using a Poisson regression model. Overall, the absolute rate of ED post-gout diagnosis was 193 (95% confidence interval (CI): 184-202) per 10,000 person-years. This corresponded to a 31% (hazard ratio (HR): 1.31 95%CI: 1.24-1.40) increased relative risk and 0.6% excess absolute risk compared to those without gout. We did not observe statistically significant differences in the risk of ED among those prescribed ULT within 1 and 3 years after gout diagnosis. Compared to those unexposed, the risk of ED was also high in the year before gout diagnosis (relative rate = 1.63 95%CI 1.27-2.08). Similar findings were also observed for severe ED warranting pharmacological intervention. We have shown a statistically significant increased risk of ED among men with gout. Our findings will have important implications in planning a multidisciplinary approach to managing patients with gout.

[Individual growth modeling of the penshell Atrina maura (Bivalvia: Pinnidae) using a multi model inference approach].

PubMed

Aragón-Noriega, Eugenio Alberto

2013-09-01

Growth models of marine animals, for fisheries and/or aquaculture purposes, are based on the popular von Bertalanffy model. This tool is mostly used because its parameters are used to evaluate other fisheries models, such as yield per recruit; nevertheless, there are other alternatives (such as Gompertz, Logistic, Schnute) not yet used by fishery scientists, that may result useful depending on the studied species. The penshell Atrina maura, has been studied for fisheries or aquaculture supplies, but its individual growth has not yet been studied before. The aim of this study was to model the absolute growth of the penshell A. maura using length-age data. For this, five models were assessed to obtain growth parameters: von Bertalanffy, Gompertz, Logistic, Schnute case 1 and Schnute and Richards. The criterion used to select the best models was the Akaike information criterion, as well as the residual squared sum and R2 adjusted. To get the average asymptotic length, the multi model inference approach was used. According to Akaike information criteria, the Gompertz model better described the absolute growth of A. maura. Following the multi model inference approach the average asymptotic shell length was 218.9 mm (IC 212.3-225.5) of shell length. I concluded that the use of the multi model approach and the Akaike information criteria represented the most robust method for growth parameter estimation of A. maura and the von Bertalanffy growth model should not be selected a priori as the true model to obtain the absolute growth in bivalve mollusks like in the studied species in this paper.

Individual risk of cutaneous melanoma in New Zealand: developing a clinical prediction aid.

PubMed

Sneyd, Mary Jane; Cameron, Claire; Cox, Brian

2014-05-22

New Zealand and Australia have the highest melanoma incidence rates worldwide. In New Zealand, both the incidence and thickness have been increasing. Clinical decisions require accurate risk prediction but a simple list of genetic, phenotypic and behavioural risk factors is inadequate to estimate individual risk as the risk factors for melanoma have complex interactions. In order to offer tailored clinical management strategies, we developed a New Zealand prediction model to estimate individual 5-year absolute risk of melanoma. A population-based case-control study (368 cases and 270 controls) of melanoma risk factors provided estimates of relative risks for fair-skinned New Zealanders aged 20-79 years. Model selection techniques and multivariate logistic regression were used to determine the important predictors. The relative risks for predictors were combined with baseline melanoma incidence rates and non-melanoma mortality rates to calculate individual probabilities of developing melanoma within 5 years. For women, the best model included skin colour, number of moles > =5 mm on the right arm, having a 1st degree relative with large moles, and a personal history of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC). The model correctly classified 68% of participants; the C-statistic was 0.74. For men, the best model included age, place of occupation up to age 18 years, number of moles > =5 mm on the right arm, birthplace, and a history of NMSC. The model correctly classified 67% of cases; the C-statistic was 0.71. We have developed the first New Zealand risk prediction model that calculates individual absolute 5-year risk of melanoma. This model will aid physicians to identify individuals at high risk, allowing them to individually target surveillance and other management strategies, and thereby reduce the high melanoma burden in New Zealand.

Selective Serotonin Reuptake Inhibitors and Violent Crime: A Cohort Study.

PubMed

Molero, Yasmina; Lichtenstein, Paul; Zetterqvist, Johan; Gumpert, Clara Hellner; Fazel, Seena

2015-09-01

Although selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) are widely prescribed, associations with violence are uncertain. From Swedish national registers we extracted information on 856,493 individuals who were prescribed SSRIs, and subsequent violent crimes during 2006 through 2009. We used stratified Cox regression analyses to compare the rate of violent crime while individuals were prescribed these medications with the rate in the same individuals while not receiving medication. Adjustments were made for other psychotropic medications. Information on all medications was extracted from the Swedish Prescribed Drug Register, with complete national data on all dispensed medications. Information on violent crime convictions was extracted from the Swedish national crime register. Using within-individual models, there was an overall association between SSRIs and violent crime convictions (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.19, 95% CI 1.08-1.32, p < 0.001, absolute risk = 1.0%). With age stratification, there was a significant association between SSRIs and violent crime convictions for individuals aged 15 to 24 y (HR = 1.43, 95% CI 1.19-1.73, p < 0.001, absolute risk = 3.0%). However, there were no significant associations in those aged 25-34 y (HR = 1.20, 95% CI 0.95-1.52, p = 0.125, absolute risk = 1.6%), in those aged 35-44 y (HR = 1.06, 95% CI 0.83-1.35, p = 0.666, absolute risk = 1.2%), or in those aged 45 y or older (HR = 1.07, 95% CI 0.84-1.35, p = 0.594, absolute risk = 0.3%). Associations in those aged 15 to 24 y were also found for violent crime arrests with preliminary investigations (HR = 1.28, 95% CI 1.16-1.41, p < 0.001), non-violent crime convictions (HR = 1.22, 95% CI 1.10-1.34, p < 0.001), non-violent crime arrests (HR = 1.13, 95% CI 1.07-1.20, p < 0.001), non-fatal injuries from accidents (HR = 1.29, 95% CI 1.22-1.36, p < 0.001), and emergency inpatient or outpatient treatment for alcohol intoxication or misuse (HR = 1.98, 95% CI 1.76-2.21, p < 0.001). With age and sex stratification, there was a significant association between SSRIs and violent crime convictions for males aged 15 to 24 y (HR = 1.40, 95% CI 1.13-1.73, p = 0.002) and females aged 15 to 24 y (HR = 1.75, 95% CI 1.08-2.84, p = 0.023). However, there were no significant associations in those aged 25 y or older. One important limitation is that we were unable to fully account for time-varying factors. The association between SSRIs and violent crime convictions and violent crime arrests varied by age group. The increased risk we found in young people needs validation in other studies.

Selective Serotonin Reuptake Inhibitors and Violent Crime: A Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Molero, Yasmina; Lichtenstein, Paul; Zetterqvist, Johan; Gumpert, Clara Hellner; Fazel, Seena

2015-01-01

Background Although selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) are widely prescribed, associations with violence are uncertain. Methods and Findings From Swedish national registers we extracted information on 856,493 individuals who were prescribed SSRIs, and subsequent violent crimes during 2006 through 2009. We used stratified Cox regression analyses to compare the rate of violent crime while individuals were prescribed these medications with the rate in the same individuals while not receiving medication. Adjustments were made for other psychotropic medications. Information on all medications was extracted from the Swedish Prescribed Drug Register, with complete national data on all dispensed medications. Information on violent crime convictions was extracted from the Swedish national crime register. Using within-individual models, there was an overall association between SSRIs and violent crime convictions (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.19, 95% CI 1.08–1.32, p < 0.001, absolute risk = 1.0%). With age stratification, there was a significant association between SSRIs and violent crime convictions for individuals aged 15 to 24 y (HR = 1.43, 95% CI 1.19–1.73, p < 0.001, absolute risk = 3.0%). However, there were no significant associations in those aged 25–34 y (HR = 1.20, 95% CI 0.95–1.52, p = 0.125, absolute risk = 1.6%), in those aged 35–44 y (HR = 1.06, 95% CI 0.83–1.35, p = 0.666, absolute risk = 1.2%), or in those aged 45 y or older (HR = 1.07, 95% CI 0.84–1.35, p = 0.594, absolute risk = 0.3%). Associations in those aged 15 to 24 y were also found for violent crime arrests with preliminary investigations (HR = 1.28, 95% CI 1.16–1.41, p < 0.001), non-violent crime convictions (HR = 1.22, 95% CI 1.10–1.34, p < 0.001), non-violent crime arrests (HR = 1.13, 95% CI 1.07–1.20, p < 0.001), non-fatal injuries from accidents (HR = 1.29, 95% CI 1.22–1.36, p < 0.001), and emergency inpatient or outpatient treatment for alcohol intoxication or misuse (HR = 1.98, 95% CI 1.76–2.21, p < 0.001). With age and sex stratification, there was a significant association between SSRIs and violent crime convictions for males aged 15 to 24 y (HR = 1.40, 95% CI 1.13–1.73, p = 0.002) and females aged 15 to 24 y (HR = 1.75, 95% CI 1.08–2.84, p = 0.023). However, there were no significant associations in those aged 25 y or older. One important limitation is that we were unable to fully account for time-varying factors. Conclusions The association between SSRIs and violent crime convictions and violent crime arrests varied by age group. The increased risk we found in young people needs validation in other studies. PMID:26372359

Resting-State Oscillatory Activity in Children Born Small for Gestational Age: An MEG Study

PubMed Central

Boersma, Maria; de Bie, Henrica M. A.; Oostrom, Kim J.; van Dijk, Bob W.; Hillebrand, Arjan; van Wijk, Bernadette C. M.; Delemarre-van de Waal, Henriëtte A.; Stam, Cornelis J.

2013-01-01

Growth restriction in utero during a period that is critical for normal growth of the brain, has previously been associated with deviations in cognitive abilities and brain anatomical and functional changes. We measured magnetoencephalography (MEG) in 4- to 7-year-old children to test if children born small for gestational age (SGA) show deviations in resting-state brain oscillatory activity. Children born SGA with postnatally spontaneous catch-up growth [SGA+; six boys, seven girls; mean age 6.3 year (SD = 0.9)] and children born appropriate for gestational age [AGA; seven boys, three girls; mean age 6.0 year (SD = 1.2)] participated in a resting-state MEG study. We calculated absolute and relative power spectra and used non-parametric statistics to test for group differences. SGA+ and AGA born children showed no significant differences in absolute and relative power except for reduced absolute gamma band power in SGA children. At the time of MEG investigation, SGA+ children showed significantly lower head circumference (HC) and a trend toward lower IQ, however there was no association of HC or IQ with absolute or relative power. Except for reduced absolute gamma band power, our findings suggest normal brain activity patterns at school age in a group of children born SGA in which spontaneous catch-up growth of bodily length after birth occurred. Although previous findings suggest that being born SGA alters brain oscillatory activity early in neonatal life, we show that these neonatal alterations do not persist at early school age when spontaneous postnatal catch-up growth occurs after birth. PMID:24068993

The utility of absolute risk prediction using FRAX® and Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator in daily practice.

PubMed

van Geel, Tineke A C M; Eisman, John A; Geusens, Piet P; van den Bergh, Joop P W; Center, Jacqueline R; Dinant, Geert-Jan

2014-02-01

There are two commonly used fracture risk prediction tools FRAX(®) and Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator (GARVAN-FRC). The objective of this study was to investigate the utility of these tools in daily practice. A prospective population-based 5-year follow-up study was conducted in ten general practice centres in the Netherlands. For the analyses, the FRAX(®) and GARVAN-FRC 10-year absolute risks (FRAX(®) does not have 5-year risk prediction) for all fractures were used. Among 506 postmenopausal women aged ≥60 years (mean age: 67.8±5.8 years), 48 (9.5%) sustained a fracture during follow-up. Both tools, using BMD values, distinguish between women who did and did not fracture (10.2% vs. 6.8%, respectively for FRAX(®) and 32.4% vs. 39.1%, respectively for GARVAN-FRC, p<0.0001) at group level. However, only 8.9% of those who sustained a fracture had an estimated fracture risk ≥20% using FRAX(®) compared with 53.3% using GARVAN-FRC. Although both underestimated the observed fracture risk, the GARVAN-FRC performed significantly better for women who sustained a fracture (higher sensitivity) and FRAX(®) for women who did not sustain a fracture (higher specificity). Similar results were obtained using age related cut off points. The discriminant value of both models is at least as good as models used in other medical conditions; hence they can be used to communicate the fracture risk to patients. However, given differences in the estimated risks between FRAX(®) and GARVAN-FRC, the significance of the absolute risk must be related to country-specific recommended intervention thresholds to inform the patient. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Projecting Individualized Absolute Invasive Breast Cancer Risk in US Hispanic Women.

PubMed

Banegas, Matthew P; John, Esther M; Slattery, Martha L; Gomez, Scarlett Lin; Yu, Mandi; LaCroix, Andrea Z; Pee, David; Chlebowski, Rowan T; Hines, Lisa M; Thompson, Cynthia A; Gail, Mitchell H

2017-02-01

There is no model to estimate absolute invasive breast cancer risk for Hispanic women. The San Francisco Bay Area Breast Cancer Study (SFBCS) provided data on Hispanic breast cancer case patients (533 US-born, 553 foreign-born) and control participants (464 US-born, 947 foreign-born). These data yielded estimates of relative risk (RR) and attributable risk (AR) separately for US-born and foreign-born women. Nativity-specific absolute risks were estimated by combining RR and AR information with nativity-specific invasive breast cancer incidence and competing mortality rates from the California Cancer Registry and Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program to develop the Hispanic risk model (HRM). In independent data, we assessed model calibration through observed/expected (O/E) ratios, and we estimated discriminatory accuracy with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) statistic. The US-born HRM included age at first full-term pregnancy, biopsy for benign breast disease, and family history of breast cancer; the foreign-born HRM also included age at menarche. The HRM estimated lower risks than the National Cancer Institute's Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (BCRAT) for US-born Hispanic women, but higher risks in foreign-born women. In independent data from the Women's Health Initiative, the HRM was well calibrated for US-born women (observed/expected [O/E] ratio = 1.07, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.81 to 1.40), but seemed to overestimate risk in foreign-born women (O/E ratio = 0.66, 95% CI = 0.41 to 1.07). The AUC was 0.564 (95% CI = 0.485 to 0.644) for US-born and 0.625 (95% CI = 0.487 to 0.764) for foreign-born women. The HRM is the first absolute risk model that is based entirely on data specific to Hispanic women by nativity. Further studies in Hispanic women are warranted to evaluate its validity. Published by Oxford University Press 2016. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the US.

Cumulative impact of common genetic variants and other risk factors on colorectal cancer risk in 42,103 individuals

PubMed Central

Dunlop, Malcolm G.; Tenesa, Albert; Farrington, Susan M.; Ballereau, Stephane; Brewster, David H.; Pharoah, Paul DP.; Schafmayer, Clemens; Hampe, Jochen; Völzke, Henry; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Hoffmeister, Michael; Brenner, Hermann; von Holst, Susanna; Picelli, Simone; Lindblom, Annika; Jenkins, Mark A.; Hopper, John L.; Casey, Graham; Duggan, David; Newcomb, Polly; Abulí, Anna; Bessa, Xavier; Ruiz-Ponte, Clara; Castellví-Bel, Sergi; Niittymäki, Iina; Tuupanen, Sari; Karhu, Auli; Aaltonen, Lauri; Zanke, Brent W.; Hudson, Thomas J.; Gallinger, Steven; Barclay, Ella; Martin, Lynn; Gorman, Maggie; Carvajal-Carmona, Luis; Walther, Axel; Kerr, David; Lubbe, Steven; Broderick, Peter; Chandler, Ian; Pittman, Alan; Penegar, Steven; Campbell, Harry; Tomlinson, Ian; Houlston, Richard S.

2016-01-01

Objective Colorectal cancer (CRC) has a substantial heritable component. Common genetic variation has been shown to contribute to CRC risk. In a large, multi-population study, we set out to assess the feasibility of CRC risk prediction using common genetic variant data, combined with other risk factors. We built a risk prediction model and applied it to the Scottish population using available data. Design Nine populations of European descent were studied to develop and validate colorectal cancer risk prediction models. Binary logistic regression was used to assess the combined effect of age, gender, family history (FH) and genotypes at 10 susceptibility loci that individually only modestly influence colorectal cancer risk. Risk models were generated from case-control data incorporating genotypes alone (n=39,266), and in combination with gender, age and family history (n=11,324). Model discriminatory performance was assessed using 10-fold internal cross-validation and externally using 4,187 independent samples. 10-year absolute risk was estimated by modelling genotype and FH with age- and gender-specific population risks. Results Median number of risk alleles was greater in cases than controls (10 vs 9, p<2.2×10−16), confirmed in external validation sets (Sweden p=1.2×10−6, Finland p=2×10−5). Mean per-allele increase in risk was 9% (OR 1.09; 95% CI 1.05–1.13). Discriminative performance was poor across the risk spectrum (area under curve (AUC) for genotypes alone - 0.57; AUC for genotype/age/gender/FH - 0.59). However, modelling genotype data, FH, age and gender with Scottish population data shows the practicalities of identifying a subgroup with >5% predicted 10-year absolute risk. Conclusion We show that genotype data provides additional information that complements age, gender and FH as risk factors. However, individualized genetic risk prediction is not currently feasible. Nonetheless, the modelling exercise suggests public health potential, since it is possible to stratify the population into CRC risk categories, thereby informing targeted prevention and surveillance. PMID:22490517

A randomized trial of decision-making in asymptomatic carotid stenosis.

PubMed

Silver, B; Zaman, I F; Ashraf, K; Majed, Y; Norwood, E M; Schuh, L A; Smith, B J; Smith, R E; Schultz, L R

2012-01-31

We sought to evaluate whether different presentation formats, presenter characteristics, and patient characteristics affect decision-making in asymptomatic carotid stenosis. Subjects included individuals presenting to a neurology clinic. Participants included those over age 18 without known carotid stenosis. Subjects were randomized to a 30-second video with 1 of 5 presentation formats (absolute risk, absolute event-free survival, annualized absolute risk, relative risk, and a qualitative description) delivered by 1 of 4 presenter physicians (black woman, white woman, black man, white man). Subjects then completed a one-page form regarding background demographics and their decision regarding treatment choice. A total of 409 subjects watched the video and completed the survey. Overall, 48.4% of subjects chose surgery. Presentation format strongly predicted choice of surgery (qualitative [64%], relative risk [63%], absolute risk [43%], absolute event-free survival [37%], and annualized absolute risk [35%], p < 0.001). There was a trend for younger age (mean age 52 vs 55, p = 0.054), male gender (53% vs 45%, p = 0.08), and advanced education (42% for high school education or less vs 52% for more than high school education, p = 0.052) to predict surgery choice. Gender and race of presenter, and race of subject, had no influence on the choice of treatment. Presentation format (information framing) strongly determines patient decision-making in asymptomatic carotid stenosis. Subject age, gender, and education level may also influence the decision. Clinicians should consider the influence of these variables when counseling patients.

Physical fitness and performance. Cardiorespiratory fitness in girls-change from middle to high school.

PubMed

Pfeiffer, Karin A; Dowda, Marsha; Dishman, Rod K; Sirard, John R; Pate, Russell R

2007-12-01

To determine how factors are related to change in cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) across time in middle school girls followed through high school. Adolescent girls (N = 274, 59% African American, baseline age = 13.6 +/- 0.6 yr) performed a submaximal fitness test (PWC170) in 8th, 9th, and 12th grades. Height, weight, sports participation, and physical activity were also measured. Moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and vigorous physical activity (VPA) were determined by the number of blocks reported on the 3-Day Physical Activity Recall (3DPAR). Individual differences and developmental change in CRF were assessed simultaneously by calculating individual growth curves for each participant, using growth curve modeling. Both weight-relative and absolute CRF increased from 8th to 9th grade and decreased from 9th to 12th grade. On average, girls lost 0.16 kg.m.min.kg.yr in weight-relative PWC170 scores (P < 0.01) and gained 10.3 kg.m.min.yr in absolute PWC170 scores. Girls reporting two or more blocks of MVPA or one or more blocks of VPA at baseline showed an average increase in PWC170 scores of 0.40-0.52 kg.m.min.kg.yr (weight relative) and 22-28 kg.m.min.yr (absolute) in CRF. In weight-relative models, girls with higher BMI showed lower CRF (approximately 0.37 g.m.min.kg.yr), but this was not shown in absolute models. In absolute models, white girls (approximately 40 kg.m.min.yr) and sport participants (approximately 28 kg.m.min.yr) showed an increase in CRF over time. Although there were fluctuations in PWC170 scores across time, average scores decreased during 4 yr. Physical activity was related to change in CRF over time; BMI, race, and sport participation were also important factors related to change over time in CRF (depending on expression of CRF-weight-relative vs absolute). Subsequent research should focus on explaining the complex longitudinal interactions between CRF, physical activity, race, BMI, and sports participation.

Optimal dental age estimation practice in United Arab Emirates' children.

PubMed

Altalie, Salem; Thevissen, Patrick; Fieuws, Steffen; Willems, Guy

2014-03-01

The aim of the study was to detect whether the Willems model, developed on a Belgian reference sample, can be used for age estimations in United Arab Emirates (UAE) children. Furthermore, it was verified that if added third molars development information in children provided more accurate age predictions. On 1900 panoramic radiographs, the development of left mandibular permanent teeth (PT) and third molars (TM) was registered according the Demirjian and the Kohler technique, respectively. The PT data were used to verify the Willems model and to develop a UAE model and to verify it. Multiple regression models with PT, TM, and PT + TM scores as independent and age as dependent factor were developed. Comparing the verified Willems- and the UAE model revealed differences in mean error of -0.01 year, mean absolute error of 0.01 year and root mean squared error of 0.90 year. Neglectable overall decrease in RMSE was detected combining PM and TM developmental information. © 2013 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Measures of 6-mercaptopurine and methotrexate maintenance therapy intensity in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia.

PubMed

Nielsen, Stine Nygaard; Grell, Kathrine; Nersting, Jacob; Frandsen, Thomas Leth; Hjalgrim, Lisa Lyngsie; Schmiegelow, Kjeld

2016-11-01

Normal white blood cell counts (WBC) are unknown in children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). Accordingly, 6-mercaptopurine (6MP) and methotrexate (MTX) maintenance therapy is adjusted by a common WBC target of 1.5-3.0 × 10 9 /L. Consequently, the absolute degree of myelosuppression is unknown for the individual child and we wanted to evaluate this. A median of 22 (range 8-27) 6MP/MTX metabolite samples and 100 (range 25-130) blood counts during therapy and 10 (range 2-15) off therapy were collected in 50 children with ALL. Differences between off-therapy and on-therapy WBCs [including absolute neutrophil (ANC) and lymphocyte counts (ALC)] were used to retrospectively approximate the absolute myelosuppression (="delta-") and association with age, sex and 6MP/MTX doses explored. We applied linear mixed models to estimate on-therapy counts by 6MP/MTX metabolites: DNA-incorporated thioguanine nucleotides (DNA-TGN), erythrocyte thioguanine nucleotides (ery-TGN), erythrocyte-methylated 6MP metabolites (ery-MeMP) and erythrocyte MTX polyglutamates with 2-6 glutamate residues (ery-MTXpg 2-6 ). On-therapy WBC was correlated with ANC and ALC (r s  = 0.84 and r s  = 0.33, p values <0.001), whereas ANC was weakly correlated with ALC (r s  = -0.11, p < 0.001), and neither significantly correlated with age. Off-therapy ALC, but not ANC, was strongly correlated with age (r s  = -0.68 and -0.18, p < 0.001 and p = 0.22). Delta-ALC decreased with increasing age (r s  = -0.69, p < 0.001). Incorporation of DNA-TGN was positively associated with ery-TGN (p < 0.001), ery-MeMP (p < 0.001) and ery-MTXpg 2-6 (p = 0.047). On-therapy ALC decreased with increasing DNA-TGN level (p < 0.001, model adjusted for off-therapy ALC), whereas on-therapy ANC could not be modeled reliably. Measurements of 6MP/MTX metabolites could supplement blood counts in assessing therapy intensity, but require prospective validation.

The Association between Parameters of Malnutrition and Diagnostic Measures of Sarcopenia in Geriatric Outpatients

PubMed Central

Reijnierse, Esmee M.; Trappenburg, Marijke C.; Leter, Morena J.; Blauw, Gerard Jan; de van der Schueren, Marian A. E.; Meskers, Carel G. M.; Maier, Andrea B.

2015-01-01

Objectives Diagnostic criteria for sarcopenia include measures of muscle mass, muscle strength and physical performance. Consensus on the definition of sarcopenia has not been reached yet. To improve insight into the most clinically valid definition of sarcopenia, this study aimed to compare the association between parameters of malnutrition, as a risk factor in sarcopenia, and diagnostic measures of sarcopenia in geriatric outpatients. Material and Methods This study is based on data from a cross-sectional study conducted in a geriatric outpatient clinic including 185 geriatric outpatients (mean age 82 years). Parameters of malnutrition included risk of malnutrition (assessed by the Short Nutritional Assessment Questionnaire), loss of appetite, unintentional weight loss and underweight (body mass index <22 kg/m2). Diagnostic measures of sarcopenia included relative muscle mass (lean mass and appendicular lean mass [ALM] as percentages), absolute muscle mass (total lean mass and ALM/height2), handgrip strength and walking speed. All diagnostic measures of sarcopenia were standardized. Associations between parameters of malnutrition (independent variables) and diagnostic measures of sarcopenia (dependent variables) were analysed using multivariate linear regression models adjusted for age, body mass, fat mass and height in separate models. Results None of the parameters of malnutrition was consistently associated with diagnostic measures of sarcopenia. The strongest associations were found for both relative and absolute muscle mass; less stronger associations were found for muscle strength and physical performance. Underweight (p = <0.001) and unintentional weight loss (p = 0.031) were most strongly associated with higher lean mass percentage after adjusting for age. Loss of appetite (p = 0.003) and underweight (p = 0.021) were most strongly associated with lower total lean mass after adjusting for age and fat mass. Conclusion Parameters of malnutrition relate differently to diagnostic measures of sarcopenia in geriatric outpatients. The association between parameters of malnutrition and diagnostic measures of sarcopenia was strongest for both relative and absolute muscle mass, while less strong associations were found with muscle strength and physical performance. PMID:26284368

Relationships between central arterial stiffness, lean body mass, and absolute and relative strength in young and older men and women.

PubMed

Fahs, Christopher A; Thiebaud, Robert S; Rossow, Lindy M; Loenneke, Jeremy P; Bemben, Debra A; Bemben, Michael G

2017-08-16

Relationships between muscular strength and arterial stiffness as well as between muscle mass and arterial stiffness have been observed suggesting a link between the neuromuscular system and vascular health. However, the relationship between central arterial stiffness and absolute and relative strength along with muscle mass has not been investigated in both sexes across a broad age range. The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between central arterial stiffness and absolute and relative strength as well as between central arterial stiffness and lean body mass (LBM) in men and women across a broad age range. LBM, central arterial stiffness and strength were measured on 36 men and 35 women between the ages of 18 and 75 years. Strength was measured on five machine resistance exercises and summed as one measure of overall strength (absolute strength). Relative strength was calculated as total strength divided by LBM (relative strength). Central arterial stiffness was inversely related to both absolute (r = -0·230; P = 0·029) and relative strength (r = -0·484; P < 0·001) but not LBM (r = 0·097; P = 0·213). The relationship between central arterial stiffness and relative strength was attenuated but still present when controlling for either age, per cent body fat, LBM or mean arterial pressure. These results suggest that, across a wide age range, the expression of relative muscular strength has a stronger relationship with central arterial stiffness compared to either LBM or absolute strength. This suggests that muscle function more than muscle mass may be coupled with vascular health. © 2017 Scandinavian Society of Clinical Physiology and Nuclear Medicine. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Rectangularization of the survival curve in The Netherlands, 1950-1992.

PubMed

Nusselder, W J; Mackenbach, J P

1996-12-01

In this article we determine whether rectangularization of the survival curve occurred in the Netherlands in the period 1950-1992. Rectangularization is defined as a trend toward a more rectangular shape of the survival curve due to increased survival and concentration of deaths around the mean age at death. We distinguish between absolute and relative rectangularization, depending on whether an increase in life expectancy is accompanied by concentration of deaths into a smaller age interval or into a smaller proportion of total life expectancy. We used measures of variability based on Keyfitz' H and the standard deviation, both life table-based. Our results show that absolute and relative rectangularization of the entire survival curve occurred in both sexes and over the complete period (except for the years 1955-1959 and 1965-1969 in men). At older ages, results differ between sexes, periods, and an absolute versus a relative definition of rectangularization. Above age 60 1/2, relative rectangularization occurred in women over the complete period and in men since 1975-1979 only, whereas absolute rectangularization occurred in both sexes since the period of 1980-1984. The implications of the recent rectangularization at older ages for achieving compression of morbidity are discussed.

Contribution of different causes of death to socioeconomic mortality inequality in Korean children aged 1-9: findings from a national mortality follow-up study.

PubMed

Jung-Choi, K; Khang, Y H

2011-02-01

To determine the contribution of different causes of death to absolute socioeconomic inequalities in mortality for the whole population of children of South Korea aged 1-4 years and 5-9 years. A cohort study based on the national birth and death registers of Korea was performed for 3,724,347 children born in 1995-2000 and 657,209 children born in 1995 to analyse mortality among children aged 1-4 and 5-9 years old, respectively. Adjusted mortality, risk difference (RD), slope index of inequality (SII), RR and relative index of inequality were calculated. The contributions of different causes of death to absolute mortality inequalities were calculated as percentages based on RD and SII. Injuries other than from transport accidents contributed the most to total SIIs for male deaths at ages 1-4 (30.0% for father's education). The second largest contribution was from transport accident injuries (19.6% for father's education). For male deaths at ages 5-9, transport accident injuries and other injuries also accounted for most of the educational and occupational differentials in absolute mortality (63.5-90.5%). Patterns in cause-specific contribution to total inequalities in mortality among girls were generally similar to those among boys. The major contributing causes to absolute socioeconomic inequality in all-cause mortality for children aged 1-9 were external. To reduce the absolute magnitude of socioeconomic inequalities in childhood mortality, policy efforts should be directed towards injury prevention and treatment in South Korea.

Male Breast Cancer Incidence and Mortality Risk in the Japanese Atomic Bomb Survivors – Differences in Excess Relative and Absolute Risk from Female Breast Cancer

PubMed Central

Little, Mark P.; McElvenny, Damien M.

2016-01-01

Background: There are well-known associations of ionizing radiation with female breast cancer, and emerging evidence also for male breast cancer. In the United Kingdom, female breast cancer following occupational radiation exposure is among that set of cancers eligible for state compensation and consideration is currently being given to an extension to include male breast cancer. Objectives: We compare radiation-associated excess relative and absolute risks of male and female breast cancers. Methods: Breast cancer incidence and mortality data in the Japanese atomic-bomb survivors were analyzed using relative and absolute risk models via Poisson regression. Results: We observed significant (p ≤ 0.01) dose-related excess risk for male breast cancer incidence and mortality. For incidence and mortality data, there are elevations by factors of approximately 15 and 5, respectively, of relative risk for male compared with female breast cancer incidence, the former borderline significant (p = 0.050). In contrast, for incidence and mortality data, there are elevations by factors of approximately 20 and 10, respectively, of female absolute risk compared with male, both statistically significant (p < 0.001). There are no indications of differences between the sexes in age/time-since-exposure/age-at-exposure modifications to the relative or absolute excess risk. The probability of causation of male breast cancer following radiation exposure exceeds by at least a factor of 5 that of many other malignancies. Conclusions: There is evidence of much higher radiation-associated relative risk for male than for female breast cancer, although absolute excess risks for males are much less than for females. However, the small number of male cases and deaths suggests a degree of caution in interpretation of this finding. Citation: Little MP, McElvenny DM. 2017. Male breast cancer incidence and mortality risk in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors – differences in excess relative and absolute risk from female breast cancer. Environ Health Perspect 125:223–229; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP151 PMID:27286002

Testing Metal-Poor Stellar Models and Isochrones with HST Parallaxes of Metal-Poor Stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaboyer, B.; McArthur, B. E.; O'Malley, E.; Benedict, G. F.; Feiden, G. A.; Harrison, T. E.; McWilliam, A.; Nelan, E. P.; Patterson, R. J.; Sarajedini, A.

2017-02-01

Hubble Space Telescope (HST) fine guidance sensor observations were used to obtain parallaxes of eight metal-poor ([Fe/H] < -1.4) stars. The parallaxes of these stars determined by the new Hipparcos reduction average 17% accuracy, in contrast to our new HST parallaxes, which average 1% accuracy and have errors on the individual parallaxes ranging from 85 to 144 μas. These parallax data were combined with HST Advanced Camera for Surveys photometry in the F606W and F814W filters to obtain the absolute magnitudes of the stars with an accuracy of 0.02-0.03 mag. Six of these stars are on the main sequence (MS) (with -2.7 < [Fe/H] < -1.8) and are suitable for testing metal-poor stellar evolution models and determining the distances to metal-poor globular clusters (GCs). Using the abundances obtained by O’Malley et al., we find that standard stellar models using the VandenBerg & Clem color transformation do a reasonable job of matching five of the MS stars, with HD 54639 ([Fe/H] = -2.5) being anomalous in its location in the color-magnitude diagram. Stellar models and isochrones were generated using a Monte Carlo analysis to take into account uncertainties in the models. Isochrones that fit the parallax stars were used to determine the distances and ages of nine GCs (with -2.4 ≤ [Fe/H] ≤ -1.9). Averaging together the age of all nine clusters led to an absolute age of the oldest, most metal-poor GCs of 12.7 ± 1.0 Gyr, where the quoted uncertainty takes into account the known uncertainties in the stellar models and isochrones, along with the uncertainty in the distance and reddening of the clusters.

A novel strategy for forensic age prediction by DNA methylation and support vector regression model

PubMed Central

Xu, Cheng; Qu, Hongzhu; Wang, Guangyu; Xie, Bingbing; Shi, Yi; Yang, Yaran; Zhao, Zhao; Hu, Lan; Fang, Xiangdong; Yan, Jiangwei; Feng, Lei

2015-01-01

High deviations resulting from prediction model, gender and population difference have limited age estimation application of DNA methylation markers. Here we identified 2,957 novel age-associated DNA methylation sites (P < 0.01 and R2 > 0.5) in blood of eight pairs of Chinese Han female monozygotic twins. Among them, nine novel sites (false discovery rate < 0.01), along with three other reported sites, were further validated in 49 unrelated female volunteers with ages of 20–80 years by Sequenom Massarray. A total of 95 CpGs were covered in the PCR products and 11 of them were built the age prediction models. After comparing four different models including, multivariate linear regression, multivariate nonlinear regression, back propagation neural network and support vector regression, SVR was identified as the most robust model with the least mean absolute deviation from real chronological age (2.8 years) and an average accuracy of 4.7 years predicted by only six loci from the 11 loci, as well as an less cross-validated error compared with linear regression model. Our novel strategy provides an accurate measurement that is highly useful in estimating the individual age in forensic practice as well as in tracking the aging process in other related applications. PMID:26635134

Relative and absolute risks of all-cause and cause-specific deaths attributable to atrial fibrillation in middle-aged and elderly community dwellers.

PubMed

Ohsawa, Masaki; Okamura, Tomonori; Ogasawara, Kuniaki; Ogawa, Akira; Fujioka, Tomoaki; Tanno, Kozo; Yonekura, Yuki; Omama, Shinichi; Turin, Tanvir Chowdhury; Itai, Kazuyoshi; Ishibashi, Yasuhiro; Morino, Yoshihiro; Itoh, Tomonori; Miyamatsu, Naomi; Onoda, Toshiyuki; Kuribayashi, Toru; Makita, Shinji; Yoshida, Yuki; Nakamura, Motoyuki; Tanaka, Fumitaka; Ohta, Mutsuko; Sakata, Kiyomi; Okayama, Akira

2015-04-01

The relative and absolute risks of outcomes other than all-cause death (ACD) attributable to atrial fibrillation (AF) stratified age have not been sufficiently investigated. A prospective study of 23,634 community dwellers aged 40 years or older without organic cardiovascular disease (AF=335, non-AF=23,299) was conducted. Multivariate-adjusted rates, rate ratios (RRs) and excess deaths (EDs) for ACD, cardiovascular death (CVD) and non-cardiovascular death (non-CVD), and sex- and age-adjusted RR and ED in middle-aged (40 to 69) and elderly (70 years or older) for ACD, CVD, non-CVD, sudden cardiac death (SCD), stroke-related death (Str-D), neoplasm-related death (NPD), and infection-related death (IFD) attributable to AF were estimated using Poisson regression. Multivariate-adjusted analysis revealed that AF significantly increased the risk of ACD (RR [95% confidence interval]:1.70 [1.23-2.95]) and CVD (3.86 [2.38-6.27]), but not non-CVD. Age-stratified analysis revealed that AF increased the risk of Str-D in middle-aged (14.5 [4.77-44.3]) and elderly individuals (4.92 [1.91-12.7]), SCD in elderly individuals (3.21 [1.37-7.51]), and might increase the risk of IFD in elderly individuals (2.02 [0.80-4.65], p=0.098). The RR of CVD was higher in middle-aged versus elderly individuals (RRs, 6.19 vs. 3.57) but the absolute risk difference was larger in elderly individuals (EDs: 7.6 vs. 3.0 per 1000 person-years). Larger absolute risk differences for ACD and CVD attributable to AF among elderly people indicate that the absolute burden of AF is higher in elderly versus middle-aged people despite the relatively small RR. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Factoring socioeconomic status into cardiac performance profiling for hospitals: does it matter?

PubMed

Alter, David A; Austin, Peter C; Naylor, C David; Tu, Jack V

2002-01-01

Critics of "scorecard medicine" often highlight the incompleteness of risk-adjustment methods used when accounting for baseline patient differences. Although socioeconomic status is a highly important determinant of adverse outcome for patients admitted to the hospital with acute myocardial infarction, it has not been used in most risk-adjustment models for cardiovascular report cards. To determine the incremental impact of socioeconomic status adjustments on age, sex, and illness severity for hospital-specific 30-day mortality rates after acute myocardial infarction. The authors compared the absolute and relative hospital-specific 30-day acute myocardial infarction mortality rates in 169 hospitals throughout Ontario between April 1, 1994 and March 31, 1997. Patient socioeconomic status was characterized by median neighborhood income using postal codes and 1996 Canadian census data. They examined two risk-adjustment models: the first adjusted for age, sex, and illness severity (standard), whereas the second adjusted for age, sex, illness severity, and median neighborhood income level (socioeconomic status). There was an extremely strong correlation between 'standard' and 'socioeconomic status' risk-adjusted mortality rates (r = 0.99). Absolute differences in 30-day risk-adjusted mortality rates between the socioeconomic status and standard risk-adjustment models were small (median, 0.1%; 25th-75th percentile, 0.1-0.2). The agreement in the quintile rankings of hospitals between the socioeconomic status and standard risk-adjustment models was high (weighted kappa = 0.93). Despite its importance as a determinant of patient outcomes, the effect of socioeconomic status on hospital-specific mortality rates over and above standard risk-adjustment methods for acute myocardial infarction hospital profiling in Ontario was negligible.

The Environment of M85 Optical Transient 2006-1: Constraints on the Progenitor Age and Mass

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ofek, E. O.; Kulkarni, S. R.; Rau, A.; Cenko, S. B.; Peng, E. W.; Blakeslee, J. P.; Côté, P.; Ferrarese, L.; Jordán, A.; Mei, S.; Puzia, T.; Bradley, L. D.; Magee, D.; Bouwens, R.

2008-02-01

M85 Optical Transient 2006-1 (M85 OT 2006-1) is the most luminous member of the small family of V838 Mon-like objects, whose nature is still a mystery. This event took place in the Virgo Cluster of galaxies and peaked at an absolute magnitude of MI ≈ - 13. Here we present Hubble Space Telescope images of M85 OT 2006-1 and its environment, taken before and after the eruption, along with a spectrum of the host galaxy at the transient location. We find that the progenitor of M85 OT 2006-1 was not associated with any star-forming region. The g- and z-band absolute magnitudes of the progenitor were fainter than about -4 and -6 mag, respectively. Therefore, we can set a lower limit of ~50 Myr on the age of the youngest stars at the location of the progenitor that corresponds to a mass of <7 M⊙. Previously published line indices suggest that M85 has a mean stellar age of 1.6 +/- 0.3 Gyr. If this mean age is representative of the progenitor of M85 OT 2006-1, then we can further constrain its mass to be less than 2 M⊙. We compare the energetics and mass limit derived for the M85 OT 2006-1 progenitor with those expected from a simple model of violent stellar mergers. Combined with further modeling, these new clues may ultimately reveal the true nature of these puzzling events.

Development of a transformation model to derive general population-based utility: Mapping the pruritus-visual analog scale (VAS) to the EQ-5D utility.

PubMed

Park, Sun-Young; Park, Eun-Ja; Suh, Hae Sun; Ha, Dongmun; Lee, Eui-Kyung

2017-08-01

Although nonpreference-based disease-specific measures are widely used in clinical studies, they cannot generate utilities for economic evaluation. A solution to this problem is to estimate utilities from disease-specific instruments using the mapping function. This study aimed to develop a transformation model for mapping the pruritus-visual analog scale (VAS) to the EuroQol 5-Dimension 3-Level (EQ-5D-3L) utility index in pruritus. A cross-sectional survey was conducted with a sample (n = 268) drawn from the general population of South Korea. Data were randomly divided into 2 groups, one for estimating and the other for validating mapping models. To select the best model, we developed and compared 3 separate models using demographic information and the pruritus-VAS as independent variables. The predictive performance was assessed using the mean absolute deviation and root mean square error in a separate dataset. Among the 3 models, model 2 using age, age squared, sex, and the pruritus-VAS as independent variables had the best performance based on the goodness of fit and model simplicity, with a log likelihood of 187.13. The 3 models had similar precision errors based on mean absolute deviation and root mean square error in the validation dataset. No statistically significant difference was observed between the mean observed and predicted values in all models. In conclusion, model 2 was chosen as the preferred mapping model. Outcomes measured as the pruritus-VAS can be transformed into the EQ-5D-3L utility index using this mapping model, which makes an economic evaluation possible when only pruritus-VAS data are available. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Regional variation in growth response of Coastal Douglas-fir to nitrogen fertilizer in the Pacific Northwest.

Treesearch

C.E. Peterson; J.W. Hazard

1990-01-01

Hypothesis testing for differences in growth responses among physiographic strata, thinning levels, and fertilizer dosage levels resulted in a set of empirical models for predicting volume increment response of even aged coastal Douglas-fir to nitrogen fertilizer. Absolute and percent responses are estimated for stands both thinned and unthinned, as a function of...

Asteroid age distributions determined by space weathering and collisional evolution models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willman, Mark; Jedicke, Robert

2011-01-01

We provide evidence of consistency between the dynamical evolution of main belt asteroids and their color evolution due to space weathering. The dynamical age of an asteroid's surface (Bottke, W.F., Durda, D.D., Nesvorný, D., Jedicke, R., Morbidelli, A., Vokrouhlický, D., Levison, H. [2005]. Icarus 175 (1), 111-140; Nesvorný, D., Jedicke, R., Whiteley, R.J., Ivezić, Ž. [2005]. Icarus 173, 132-152) is the time since its last catastrophic disruption event which is a function of the object's diameter. The age of an S-complex asteroid's surface may also be determined from its color using a space weathering model (e.g. Willman, M., Jedicke, R., Moskovitz, N., Nesvorný, D., Vokrouhlický, D., Mothé-Diniz, T. [2010]. Icarus 208, 758-772; Jedicke, R., Nesvorný, D., Whiteley, R.J., Ivezić, Ž., Jurić, M. [2004]. Nature 429, 275-277; Willman, M., Jedicke, R., Nesvorny, D., Moskovitz, N., Ivezić, Ž., Fevig, R. [2008]. Icarus 195, 663-673. We used a sample of 95 S-complex asteroids from SMASS and obtained their absolute magnitudes and u, g, r, i, z filter magnitudes from SDSS. The absolute magnitudes yield a size-derived age distribution. The u, g, r, i, z filter magnitudes lead to the principal component color which yields a color-derived age distribution by inverting our color-age relationship, an enhanced version of the 'dual τ' space weathering model of Willman et al. (2010). We fit the size-age distribution to the enhanced dual τ model and found characteristic weathering and gardening times of τw = 2050 ± 80 Myr and τg=4400-500+700Myr respectively. The fit also suggests an initial principal component color of -0.05 ± 0.01 for fresh asteroid surface with a maximum possible change of the probable color due to weathering of Δ PC = 1.34 ± 0.04. Our predicted color of fresh asteroid surface matches the color of fresh ordinary chondritic surface of PC1 = 0.17 ± 0.39.

Absolute vs. Weight-Related Maximum Oxygen Uptake in Firefighters: Fitness Evaluation with and without Protective Clothing and Self-Contained Breathing Apparatus among Age Group

PubMed Central

Perroni, Fabrizio; Guidetti, Laura; Cignitti, Lamberto; Baldari, Carlo

2015-01-01

During fire emergencies, firefighters wear personal protective devices (PC) and a self-contained breathing apparatus (S.C.B.A.) to be protected from injuries. The purpose of this study was to investigate the differences of aerobic level in 197 firefighters (age: 34±7 yr; BMI: 24.4±2.3 kg.m-2), evaluated by a Queen’s College Step field Test (QCST), performed with and without fire protective garments, and to analyze the differences among age groups (<25 yr; 26-30 yr, 31-35 yr, 36-40 yr and >40 yr). Variance analysis was applied to assess differences (p < 0.05) between tests and age groups observed in absolute and weight-related values, while a correlation was examined between QCST with and without PC+S.C.B.A. The results have shown that a 13% of firefighters failed to complete the test with PC+S.C.B.A. and significant differences between QCST performed with and without PC+S.C.B.A. in absolute (F(1,169) = 42.6, p < 0.0001) and weight-related (F(1,169) = 339.9, p < 0.0001) terms. A better correlation has been found in L•min-1 (r=0.67) than in ml•kg-1•min-1 (r=0.54). Moreover, we found significant differences among age groups both in absolute and weight-related values. The assessment of maximum oxygen uptake of firefighters in absolute term can be a useful tool to evaluate the firefighters' cardiovascular strain. PMID:25764201

Absolute Power Spectral Density Changes in the Magnetoencephalographic Activity During the Transition from Childhood to Adulthood.

PubMed

Gómez, Carlos M; Rodríguez-Martínez, Elena I; Fernández, Alberto; Maestú, Fernando; Poza, Jesús; Gómez, Carlos

2017-01-01

The aim of this study was to define the pattern of reduction in absolute power spectral density (PSD) of magnetoencephalography (MEG) signals throughout development. Specifically, we wanted to explore whether the human skull's high permeability for electromagnetic fields would allow us to question whether the pattern of absolute PSD reduction observed in the human electroencephalogram is due to an increase in the skull's resistive properties with age. Furthermore, the topography of the MEG signals during maturation was explored, providing additional insights about the areas and brain rhythms related to late maturation in the human brain. To attain these goals, spontaneous MEG activity was recorded from 148 sensors in a sample of 59 subjects divided into three age groups: children/adolescents (7-14 years), young adults (17-20 years) and adults (21-26 years). Statistical testing was carried out by means of an analysis of variance (ANOVA), with "age group" as between-subject factor and "sensor group" as within-subject factor. Additionally, correlations of absolute PSD with age were computed to assess the influence of age on the spectral content of MEG signals. Results showed a broadband PSD decrease in frontal areas, which suggests the late maturation of this region, but also a mild increase in high frequency PSD with age in posterior areas. These findings suggest that the intensity of the neural sources during spontaneous brain activity decreases with age, which may be related to synaptic pruning.

Absolute measurement of cerebral optical coefficients, hemoglobin concentration and oxygen saturation in old and young adults with near-infrared spectroscopy

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

We present near-infrared spectroscopy measurement of absolute cerebral hemoglobin concentration and saturation in a large sample of 36 healthy elderly (mean age, 85 ± 6 years) and 19 young adults (mean age, 28 ± 4 years). Non-invasive measurements were obtained on the forehead using a commercially a...

A New Absolute Plate Motion Model for Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maher, S. M.; Wessel, P.; Müller, D.; Harada, Y.

2013-12-01

The India-Eurasia collision, a change in relative plate motion between Australia and Antarctica, and the coeval ages of the Hawaiian Emperor Bend (HEB) and Louisville Bend of ~Chron 22-21 all provide convincing evidence of a global tectonic plate reorganization at ~50 Ma. Yet if it were a truly global event, then there should be a contemporaneous change in Africa absolute plate motion (APM) reflected by physical evidence somewhere on the Africa plate. This evidence might be visible in the Reunion-Mascarene bend, which exhibits many HEB-like features such as a large angular change close to ~50 Ma. Recently, the Reunion hotpot trail has been interpreted as a continental feature with incidental hotspot volcanism. Here we propose the alternative hypothesis that the northern portion of the chain between Saya de Malha and the Seychelles (Mascarene Plateau) formed as the Reunion hotspot was situated on the Carlsberg Ridge, contemporaneously forming the Chagos-Laccadive Ridge on the India plate. We have created a 4-stage model that explores how a simple APM model fitting the Mascarene Plateau can also satisfy the age progressions and geometry of other hotspot trails on the Africa plate. This type of model could explain the apparent bifurcation of the Tristan hotspot chain, the age reversals seen along the Walvis Ridge and the diffuse nature of the St. Helena chain. To test this hypothesis we have made a new African APM model that goes back to ~80 Ma using a modified version of the Hybrid Polygonal Finite Rotation Method. This method uses seamount chains and their associated hotspots as geometric constraints for the model, and seamount age dates to determine its motion through time. The positions of the hotspots can be moved to get the best fit for the model and to explore the possibility that the ~50 Ma bend in the Reunion-Mascarene chain reflects Africa plate motion. We will examine how well this model can predict the key features reflecting Africa plate motion and contrast its predictions with other proposed models.

Mammographic Density Phenotypes and Risk of Breast Cancer: A Meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Graff, Rebecca E.; Ursin, Giske; dos Santos Silva, Isabel; McCormack, Valerie; Baglietto, Laura; Vachon, Celine; Bakker, Marije F.; Giles, Graham G.; Chia, Kee Seng; Czene, Kamila; Eriksson, Louise; Hall, Per; Hartman, Mikael; Warren, Ruth M. L.; Hislop, Greg; Chiarelli, Anna M.; Hopper, John L.; Krishnan, Kavitha; Li, Jingmei; Li, Qing; Pagano, Ian; Rosner, Bernard A.; Wong, Chia Siong; Scott, Christopher; Stone, Jennifer; Maskarinec, Gertraud; Boyd, Norman F.; van Gils, Carla H.

2014-01-01

Background Fibroglandular breast tissue appears dense on mammogram, whereas fat appears nondense. It is unclear whether absolute or percentage dense area more strongly predicts breast cancer risk and whether absolute nondense area is independently associated with risk. Methods We conducted a meta-analysis of 13 case–control studies providing results from logistic regressions for associations between one standard deviation (SD) increments in mammographic density phenotypes and breast cancer risk. We used random-effects models to calculate pooled odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). All tests were two-sided with P less than .05 considered to be statistically significant. Results Among premenopausal women (n = 1776 case patients; n = 2834 control subjects), summary odds ratios were 1.37 (95% CI = 1.29 to 1.47) for absolute dense area, 0.78 (95% CI = 0.71 to 0.86) for absolute nondense area, and 1.52 (95% CI = 1.39 to 1.66) for percentage dense area when pooling estimates adjusted for age, body mass index, and parity. Corresponding odds ratios among postmenopausal women (n = 6643 case patients; n = 11187 control subjects) were 1.38 (95% CI = 1.31 to 1.44), 0.79 (95% CI = 0.73 to 0.85), and 1.53 (95% CI = 1.44 to 1.64). After additional adjustment for absolute dense area, associations between absolute nondense area and breast cancer became attenuated or null in several studies and summary odds ratios became 0.82 (95% CI = 0.71 to 0.94; P heterogeneity = .02) for premenopausal and 0.85 (95% CI = 0.75 to 0.96; P heterogeneity < .01) for postmenopausal women. Conclusions The results suggest that percentage dense area is a stronger breast cancer risk factor than absolute dense area. Absolute nondense area was inversely associated with breast cancer risk, but it is unclear whether the association is independent of absolute dense area. PMID:24816206

Morphometrics and inertial properties in the body segments of chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes)

PubMed Central

Schoonaert, Kirsten; D’Août, Kristiaan; Aerts, Peter

2007-01-01

Inertial characteristics and dimensions of the body and body segments form an integral part of a biomechanical analysis of motion. In primate studies, however, segment inertial parameters of non-human hominoids are scarce and often obtained using varying techniques. Therefore, the principal aim of this study was to expand the existing chimpanzee inertial property data set using a non-invasive measuring technique. We also considered age- and sex-related differences within our sample. By means of a geometric model based on Crompton et al. (1996); Am J Phys Anthropol 99, 547–570) we generated inertial properties using external segment length and diameter measurements of 53 anaesthetized chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes). We report absolute inertial parameters for immature and mature subjects and for males and females separately. Proportional data were computed to allow the comparison between age classes and sex classes. In addition, we calculated whole limb inertial properties and we discuss their potential biomechanical consequences. We found no significant differences between the age classes in the proportional data except for hand and foot measures where juveniles exhibit relatively longer and heavier distal segments than adults. Furthermore, most sex-related differences can be directly attributed to the higher absolute segment masses in male chimpanzees resulting in higher moments of inertia. Additionally, males tend to have longer upper limbs than females. However, regarding proportional data we discuss the general inertial properties of the chimpanzee. The described segment inertial parameters of males and females, and of the two age classes, represent a valuable data set ready for use in a range of biomechanical locomotor models. These models offer great potential for improving our understanding of early hominin locomotor patterns. PMID:17451529

Peripheral leukocyte populations and oxidative stress biomarkers in aged dogs showing impaired cognitive abilities.

PubMed

Mongillo, Paolo; Bertotto, Daniela; Pitteri, Elisa; Stefani, Annalisa; Marinelli, Lieta; Gabai, Gianfranco

2015-06-01

In the present study, the peripheral blood leukocyte phenotypes, lymphocyte subset populations, and oxidative stress parameters were studied in cognitively characterized adult and aged dogs, in order to assess possible relationships between age, cognitive decline, and the immune status. Adult (N = 16, 2-7 years old) and aged (N = 29, older than 8 years) dogs underwent two testing procedures, for the assessment of spatial reversal learning and selective social attention abilities, which were shown to be sensitive to aging in pet dogs. Based on age and performance in cognitive testing, dogs were classified as adult not cognitively impaired (ADNI, N = 12), aged not cognitively impaired (AGNI, N = 19) and aged cognitively impaired (AGCI, N = 10). Immunological and oxidative stress parameters were compared across groups with the Kruskal-Wallis test. AGCI dogs displayed lower absolute CD4 cell count (p < 0.05) than ADNI and higher monocyte absolute count and percentage (p < 0.05) than AGNI whereas these parameters were not different between AGNI and ADNI. AGNI dogs had higher CD8 cell percentage than ADNI (p < 0.05). Both AGNI and AGCI dogs showed lower CD4/CD8 and CD21 count and percentage and higher neutrophil/lymphocyte and CD3/CD21 ratios (p < 0.05). None of the oxidative parameters showed any statistically significant difference among groups. These observations suggest that alterations in peripheral leukocyte populations may reflect age-related changes occurring within the central nervous system and disclose interesting perspectives for the dog as a model for studying the functional relationship between the nervous and immune systems during aging.

Volumetric mammographic density: heritability and association with breast cancer susceptibility loci.

PubMed

Brand, Judith S; Humphreys, Keith; Thompson, Deborah J; Li, Jingmei; Eriksson, Mikael; Hall, Per; Czene, Kamila

2014-12-01

Mammographic density is a strong heritable trait, but data on its genetic component are limited to area-based and qualitative measures. We studied the heritability of volumetric mammographic density ascertained by a fully-automated method and the association with breast cancer susceptibility loci. Heritability of volumetric mammographic density was estimated with a variance component model in a sib-pair sample (N pairs = 955) of a Swedish screening based cohort. Associations with 82 established breast cancer loci were assessed in an independent sample of the same cohort (N = 4025 unrelated women) using linear models, adjusting for age, body mass index, and menopausal status. All tests were two-sided, except for heritability analyses where one-sided tests were used. After multivariable adjustment, heritability estimates (standard error) for percent dense volume, absolute dense volume, and absolute nondense volume were 0.63 (0.06) and 0.43 (0.06) and 0.61 (0.06), respectively (all P < .001). Percent and absolute dense volume were associated with rs10995190 (ZNF365; P = 9.0 × 10(-6) and 8.9 × 10(-7), respectively) and rs9485372 (TAB2; P = 1.8 × 10(-5) and 1.8 × 10(-3), respectively). We also observed associations of rs9383938 (ESR1) and rs2046210 (ESR1) with the absolute dense volume (P = 2.6 × 10(-4) and 4.6 × 10(-4), respectively), and rs6001930 (MLK1) and rs17356907 (NTN4) with the absolute nondense volume (P = 6.7 × 10(-6) and 8.4 × 10(-5), respectively). Our results support the high heritability of mammographic density, though estimates are weaker for absolute than percent dense volume. We also demonstrate that the shared genetic component with breast cancer is not restricted to dense tissues only. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Mud volcanism and morphology of impact craters in Utopia Planitia on Mars: Evidence for the ancient ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanov, Mikhail A.; Hiesinger, H.; Erkeling, G.; Reiss, D.

2014-01-01

Results of our detailed geological mapping and interpretation of the nature and relative and absolute model ages of units and structures in the SW portion of Utopia Planitia (20-45°N, 100-120°E) suggest the following. (1) The size-frequency distribution (SFD) of craters that both are buried by materials of the Vastitas Borealis units (VB) and superpose its surface indicate that the absolute model ages of terrain predating the emplacement of the VB is ˜3.7 Ga. (2) Lack of craters that are partly embayed by materials of the VB in the SW portion of Utopia Planitia implies that the emplacement of the VB was faster than the rate of accumulation of impact craters and is consistent with the geologically short time of emplacement of the VB due to catastrophic release of water from outflow channels (e.g., Carr, M.H. [1996]. Water on Mars. Oxford University Press, New York, p. 229). (3) The SFD of craters that superpose the surface of the VB indicates an absolute model age of ˜3.6-3.5 Ga. The absolute model ages of etched flows, which represent the upper stratigraphic limit of the VB, are estimated to be ˜3.5 Ga. (4) The majority of the larger (i.e., >1 km) impact craters show ejecta morphologies (rampart and pancake-like ejecta) that are indicative of the presence of ice/water in the target materials. The distal portions of the pancake-like ejecta are heavily degraded (not due to embayment). This suggests that these craters formed in targets that contained higher abundances of volatiles. (5) The diameter ranges of the craters with either rampart- or pancake-like ejecta are overlapping (from ˜2 to ˜60 km). Craters with pancake-like ejecta are concentrated within the central portion of the Utopia basin (less than ˜1000 km from the basin center) and rampart craters occur at the periphery of the basin. This pattern of the crater spatial distribution suggests that materials within the center of Utopia Planitia contained more ice/water. (6) Etched flows around the central portion of Utopia Planitia were erupted from beneath of the surface of the VB. Their morphology and pattern of degradation, however, are inconsistent with lava and, instead, indicate formation of the flows due to mud volcanism. (7) Etched flows are spatially associated with giant polygons and there is evidence that these features populated the center portion of Utopia Planitia before it was covered by the Elysium-derived units. The outer (southern) edge of the zone of polygonal troughs and etched flows approximately corresponds to the transition from pancake-like ejecta to rampart ejecta. This suggest that the outer edge of the zone of the polygons and flows may outline the deeper portions of the large body (˜2000 km across) of water/ice that likely existed in the center of Utopia Planitia in late Hesperian.

On the faint-end of the high-z galaxy luminosity function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yue, Bin; Ferrara, Andrea; Xu, Yidong

2016-12-01

Recent measurements of the luminosity function (LF) of galaxies in the Epoch of Reionization (EoR, z ≳ 6) indicate a very steep increase of the number density of low-mass galaxies populating the LF faint-end. However, as star formation in low-mass haloes can be easily depressed or even quenched by ionizing radiation, a turnover is expected at some faint UV magnitudes. Using a physically motivated analytical model, we quantify reionization feedback effects on the LF faint-end shape. We find that if reionization feedback is neglected, the power-law Schechter parametrization characterizing the LF faint-end remains valid up to absolute UV magnitude ˜-9. If instead radiative feedback is strong enough that quenches star formation in haloes with circular velocity smaller than 50 km s-1, the LF starts to drop at absolute UV magnitude ˜-15, I.e. slightly below the detection limits of current (unlensed) surveys at z ˜ 5. The LFs may rise again at higher absolute UV magnitude, where, as a result of interplay between reionization process and galaxy formation, most of the galaxy light is from relic stars formed before the EoR. We suggest that the galaxy number counts data, particularly in lensed fields, can put strong constraints on reionization feedback. In models with stronger reionization feedback, stars in galaxies with absolute UV magnitude higher than ˜-13 and smaller than ˜-8 are typically older. Hence, the stellar age-UV magnitude relation can be used as an alternative feedback probe.

Constraint on Absolute Accuracy of Metacomprehension Assessments: The Anchoring and Adjustment Model vs. the Standards Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kwon, Heekyung

2011-01-01

The objective of this study is to provide a systematic account of three typical phenomena surrounding absolute accuracy of metacomprehension assessments: (1) the absolute accuracy of predictions is typically quite low; (2) there exist individual differences in absolute accuracy of predictions as a function of reading skill; and (3) postdictions…

Is an absolute level of cortical beta suppression required for proper movement? Magnetoencephalographic evidence from healthy aging.

PubMed

Heinrichs-Graham, Elizabeth; Wilson, Tony W

2016-07-01

Previous research has connected a specific pattern of beta oscillatory activity to proper motor execution, but no study to date has directly examined how resting beta levels affect motor-related beta oscillatory activity in the motor cortex. Understanding this relationship is imperative to determining the basic mechanisms of motor control, as well as the impact of pathological beta oscillations on movement execution. In the current study, we used magnetoencephalography (MEG) and a complex movement paradigm to quantify resting beta activity and movement-related beta oscillations in the context of healthy aging. We chose healthy aging as a model because preliminary evidence suggests that beta activity is elevated in older adults, and thus by examining older and younger adults we were able to naturally vary resting beta levels. To this end, healthy younger and older participants were recorded during motor performance and at rest. Using beamforming, we imaged the peri-movement beta event-related desynchronization (ERD) and extracted virtual sensors from the peak voxels, which enabled absolute and relative beta power to be assessed. Interestingly, absolute beta power during the pre-movement baseline was much stronger in older relative to younger adults, and older adults also exhibited proportionally large beta desynchronization (ERD) responses during motor planning and execution compared to younger adults. Crucially, we found a significant relationship between spontaneous (resting) beta power and beta ERD magnitude in both primary motor cortices, above and beyond the effects of age. A similar link was found between beta ERD magnitude and movement duration. These findings suggest a direct linkage between beta reduction during movement and spontaneous activity in the motor cortex, such that as spontaneous beta power increases, a greater reduction in beta activity is required to execute movement. We propose that, on an individual level, the primary motor cortices have an absolute threshold of beta power that must be reached in order to move, and that an inability to suppress beta power to this threshold results in an increase in movement duration. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Muscle Stem Cells: A Model System for Adult Stem Cell Biology.

PubMed

Cornelison, Ddw; Perdiguero, Eusebio

2017-01-01

Skeletal muscle stem cells, originally termed satellite cells for their position adjacent to differentiated muscle fibers, are absolutely required for the process of skeletal muscle repair and regeneration. In the last decade, satellite cells have become one of the most studied adult stem cell systems and have emerged as a standard model not only in the field of stem cell-driven tissue regeneration but also in stem cell dysfunction and aging. Here, we provide background in the field and discuss recent advances in our understanding of muscle stem cell function and dysfunction, particularly in the case of aging, and the potential involvement of muscle stem cells in genetic diseases such as the muscular dystrophies.

Neural Sensitivity to Absolute and Relative Anticipated Reward in Adolescents

PubMed Central

Vaidya, Jatin G.; Knutson, Brian; O'Leary, Daniel S.; Block, Robert I.; Magnotta, Vincent

2013-01-01

Adolescence is associated with a dramatic increase in risky and impulsive behaviors that have been attributed to developmental differences in neural processing of rewards. In the present study, we sought to identify age differences in anticipation of absolute and relative rewards. To do so, we modified a commonly used monetary incentive delay (MID) task in order to examine brain activity to relative anticipated reward value (neural sensitivity to the value of a reward as a function of other available rewards). This design also made it possible to examine developmental differences in brain activation to absolute anticipated reward magnitude (the degree to which neural activity increases with increasing reward magnitude). While undergoing fMRI, 18 adolescents and 18 adult participants were presented with cues associated with different reward magnitudes. After the cue, participants responded to a target to win money on that trial. Presentation of cues was blocked such that two reward cues associated with $.20, $1.00, or $5.00 were in play on a given block. Thus, the relative value of the $1.00 reward varied depending on whether it was paired with a smaller or larger reward. Reflecting age differences in neural responses to relative anticipated reward (i.e., reference dependent processing), adults, but not adolescents, demonstrated greater activity to a $1 reward when it was the larger of the two available rewards. Adults also demonstrated a more linear increase in ventral striatal activity as a function of increasing absolute reward magnitude compared to adolescents. Additionally, reduced ventral striatal sensitivity to absolute anticipated reward (i.e., the difference in activity to medium versus small rewards) correlated with higher levels of trait Impulsivity. Thus, ventral striatal activity in anticipation of absolute and relative rewards develops with age. Absolute reward processing is also linked to individual differences in Impulsivity. PMID:23544046

Flexible parametric survival models built on age-specific antimüllerian hormone percentiles are better predictors of menopause.

PubMed

Ramezani Tehrani, Fahimeh; Mansournia, Mohammad Ali; Solaymani-Dodaran, Masoud; Steyerberg, Ewout; Azizi, Fereidoun

2016-06-01

This study aimed to improve existing prediction models for age at menopause. We identified all reproductive aged women with regular menstrual cycles who met our eligibility criteria (n = 1,015) in the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study-an ongoing population-based cohort study initiated in 1998. Participants were examined every 3 years and their reproductive histories were recorded. Blood levels of antimüllerian hormone (AMH) were measured at the time of recruitment. Age at menopause was estimated based on serum concentrations of AMH using flexible parametric survival models. The optimum model was selected according to Akaike Information Criteria and the realness of the range of predicted median menopause age. We followed study participants for a median of 9.8 years during which 277 women reached menopause and found that a spline-based proportional odds model including age-specific AMH percentiles as the covariate performed well in terms of statistical criteria and provided the most clinically relevant and realistic predictions. The range of predicted median age at menopause for this model was 47.1 to 55.9 years. For those who reached menopause, the median of the absolute mean difference between actual and predicted age at menopause was 1.9 years (interquartile range 2.9). The model including the age-specific AMH percentiles as the covariate and using proportional odds as its covariate metrics meets all the statistical criteria for the best model and provides the most clinically relevant and realistic predictions for age at menopause for reproductive-aged women.

Biological and behavioral factors modify urinary arsenic metabolic profiles in a U.S. population.

PubMed

Hudgens, Edward E; Drobna, Zuzana; He, Bin; Le, X C; Styblo, Miroslav; Rogers, John; Thomas, David J

2016-05-26

Because some adverse health effects associated with chronic arsenic exposure may be mediated by methylated arsenicals, interindividual variation in capacity to convert inorganic arsenic into mono- and di-methylated metabolites may be an important determinant of risk associated with exposure to this metalloid. Hence, identifying biological and behavioral factors that modify an individual's capacity to methylate inorganic arsenic could provide insights into critical dose-response relations underlying adverse health effects. A total of 904 older adults (≥45 years old) in Churchill County, Nevada, who chronically used home tap water supplies containing up to 1850 μg of arsenic per liter provided urine and toenail samples for determination of total and speciated arsenic levels. Effects of biological factors (gender, age, body mass index) and behavioral factors (smoking, recent fish or shellfish consumption) on patterns of arsenicals in urine were evaluated with bivariate analyses and multivariate regression models. Relative contributions of inorganic, mono-, and di-methylated arsenic to total speciated arsenic in urine were unchanged over the range of concentrations of arsenic in home tap water supplies used by study participants. Gender predicted both absolute and relative amounts of arsenicals in urine. Age predicted levels of inorganic arsenic in urine and body mass index predicted relative levels of mono- and di-methylated arsenic in urine. Smoking predicted both absolute and relative levels of arsenicals in urine. Multivariate regression models were developed for both absolute and relative levels of arsenicals in urine. Concentration of arsenic in home tap water and estimated water consumption were strongly predictive of levels of arsenicals in urine as were smoking, body mass index, and gender. Relative contributions of arsenicals to urinary arsenic were not consistently predicted by concentrations of arsenic in drinking water supplies but were more consistently predicted by gender, body mass index, age, and smoking. These findings suggest that analyses of dose-response relations in arsenic-exposed populations should account for biological and behavioral factors that modify levels of inorganic and methylated arsenicals in urine. Evidence of significant effects of these factors on arsenic metabolism may also support mode of action studies in appropriate experimental models.

Bridging the etiologic and prognostic outlooks in individualized assessment of absolute risk of an illness: application in lung cancer.

PubMed

Karp, Igor; Sylvestre, Marie-Pierre; Abrahamowicz, Michal; Leffondré, Karen; Siemiatycki, Jack

2016-11-01

Assessment of individual risk of illness is an important activity in preventive medicine. Development of risk-assessment models has heretofore relied predominantly on studies involving follow-up of cohort-type populations, while case-control studies have generally been considered unfit for this purpose. To present a method for individualized assessment of absolute risk of an illness (as illustrated by lung cancer) based on data from a 'non-nested' case-control study. We used data from a case-control study conducted in Montreal, Canada in 1996-2001. Individuals diagnosed with lung cancer (n = 920) and age- and sex-matched lung-cancer-free subjects (n = 1288) completed questionnaires documenting life-time cigarette-smoking history and occupational, medical, and family history. Unweighted and weighted logistic models were fitted. Model overfitting was assessed using bootstrap-based cross-validation and 'shrinkage.' The discriminating ability was assessed by the c-statistic, and the risk-stratifying performance was assessed by examination of the variability in risk estimates over hypothetical risk-profiles. In the logistic models, the logarithm of incidence-density of lung cancer was expressed as a function of age, sex, cigarette-smoking history, history of respiratory conditions and exposure to occupational carcinogens, and family history of lung cancer. The models entailed a minimal degree of overfitting ('shrinkage' factor: 0.97 for both unweighted and weighted models) and moderately high discriminating ability (c-statistic: 0.82 for the unweighted model and 0.66 for the weighted model). The method's risk-stratifying performance was quite high. The presented method allows for individualized assessment of risk of lung cancer and can be used for development of risk-assessment models for other illnesses.

Residual lifetime and 10 year absolute risks of osteoporotic fractures in Chinese men and women.

PubMed

Si, Lei; Winzenberg, Tania M; Chen, Mingsheng; Jiang, Qicheng; Palmer, Andrew J

2015-06-01

To determine the residual lifetime and 10 year absolute risks of osteoporotic fractures in Chinese men and women. A validated state-transition microsimulation model was used. Microsimulation and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to address the uncertainties in the model. All parameters including fracture incidence rates and mortality rates were retrieved from published literature. Simulated subjects were run through the model until they died to estimate the residual lifetime fracture risks. A 10 year time horizon was used to determine the 10 year fracture risks. We estimated the risk of only the first osteoporotic fracture during the simulation time horizon. The residual lifetime and 10 year risks of having the first osteoporotic (hip, clinical vertebral or wrist) fracture for Chinese women aged 50 years were 40.9% (95% CI: 38.3-44.0%) and 8.2% (95% CI: 6.8-9.3%) respectively. For men, the residual lifetime and 10 year fracture risks were 8.7% (95% CI: 7.5-9.8%) and 1.2% (95% CI: 0.8-1.7%) respectively. The residual lifetime fracture risks declined with age, whilst the 10 year fracture risks increased with age until the short-term mortality risks outstripped the fracture risks. Residual lifetime and 10 year clinical vertebral fracture risks were higher than those of hip and wrist fractures in both sexes. More than one third of the Chinese women and approximately one tenth of the Chinese men aged 50 years are expected to sustain a major osteoporotic fracture in their remaining lifetimes. Due to increased fracture risks and a rapidly ageing population, osteoporosis will present a great challenge to the Chinese healthcare system. While national data was used wherever possible, regional Chinese hip and clinical vertebral fracture incidence rates were used, wrist fracture rates were taken from a Norwegian study and calibrated to the Chinese population. Other fracture sites like tibia, humerus, ribs and pelvis were not included in the analysis, thus these risks are likely to be underestimates. Fracture risk factors other than age and sex were not included in the model. Point estimates were used for fracture incidence rates, osteoporosis prevalence and mortality rates for the general population.

Waist circumference values equivalent to body mass index points for predicting absolute cardiovascular disease risks among adults in an Aboriginal community: a prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Adegbija, Odewumi; Hoy, Wendy E; Wang, Zhiqiang

2015-11-13

There have been suggestions that currently recommended waist circumference (WC) cut-off points for Australians of European origin may not be applicable to Aboriginal people who have different body habitus profiles. We aimed to generate equivalent WC values that correspond to body mass index (BMI) points for identifying absolute cardiovascular disease (CVD) risks. Prospective cohort study. An Aboriginal community in Australia's Northern Territory. From 1992 to 1998, 920 adults without CVD, with age, WC and BMI measurements were followed-up for up to 20 years. Incident CVD, coronary artery disease (CAD) and heart failure (HF) events during the follow-up period ascertained from hospitalisation data. We generated WC values with 10-year absolute risks equivalent for the development of CVD as BMI values (20-34 kg/m(2)) using the Weibull accelerated time-failure model. There were 211 incident cases of CVD over 13,669 person-years of follow-up. At the average age of 35 years, WC values with absolute CVD, CAD and HF risks equivalent to BMI of 25 kg/m(2) were 91.5, 91.8 and 91.7 cm, respectively, for males, and corresponding WC values were 92.5, 92.7 and 93 cm for females. WC values with equal absolute CVD, CAD and HF risks to BMI of 30 kg/m(2) were 101.7, 103.1 and 102.6 cm, respectively, for males, and corresponding values were 99.2, 101.6 and 101.5 cm for females. Association between WC and CVD did not depend on gender (p=0.54). WC ranging from 91 to 93 cm was equivalent to BMI 25 kg/m(2) for overweight, and 99 to 103 cm was equivalent to BMI of 30 kg/m(2) for obesity in terms of predicting 10-year absolute CVD risk. Replicating the absolute risk method in other Aboriginal communities will further validate the WC values generated for future development of WC cut-off points for Aboriginal people. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Is a 50 Ma Event Recorded in the Absolute Plate Motion of Africa?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maher, S. M.; Wessel, P.; Müller, R.; Harada, Y.

2012-12-01

There is considerable evidence for a global plate tectonic reorganization at ~Chron 21, as suggested by observed changes in global relative plate motion (RPM). The timings of these events appear to coincide with the age of the Hawaiian Emperor Bend (HEB), i.e., ~47-50 Ma. This 120° bend has traditionally been the poster child for the fixed hotspot hypothesis, suggesting the Pacific plate underwent a change in absolute plate motion (APM) as it moved over a more or less stationary Hawaiian hotspot. However, palaeomagnetic evidence favors southward motion of the Hawaii hotspot during the Emperor stage, limiting the amount of APM change required. In the Indo-Atlantic realm, RPMs involving Africa all seem compatible with a change in Africa APM around ~50 Ma. If this global plate reorganization took place there should also be physical evidence on the Africa plate itself due to the change in Africa APM. A candidate for such evidence may be the Réunion-Mascarene bend, which exhibits many HEB-like features. However, the Réunion hotspot also created the Chagos-Laccadive ridge as it encountered (and later crossed) the Carlsberg Ridge, and the oldest Mascarene section closest to the Seychelles may be continental in origin; thus there is some uncertainty in how to interpret the geometry. Furthermore, published APM models have had difficulty modeling this abrupt change in orientation. To reexamine this problem we derived a new Africa APM model that goes back to ~65 Ma using the Hybrid Polygonal Finite Rotation Method. The modeling incorporates the geometry and ages of seamount chains on the Africa plate and their associated hotspots as suitable constraints on an Africa APM model. The present as well as earlier positions of hotspots can be adjusted to get the best fit for the model. We examine how models with or without a ~50 Ma bend satisfy the geometries and age progressions of hotspot chains on the Africa plate and how well the predictions match observed paleolatitudes.

Geographic health inequalities in Norway: a Gini analysis of cross-county differences in mortality from 1980 to 2014.

PubMed

Skaftun, Eirin K; Verguet, Stéphane; Norheim, Ole F; Johansson, Kjell A

2018-05-24

This study aims at quantifying the level and changes over time of inequality in age-specific mortality and life expectancy between the 19 Norwegian counties from 1980 to 2014. Data on population and mortality by county was obtained from Statistics Norway for 1980-2014. Life expectancy and age-specific mortality rates (0-4, 5-49 and 50-69 age groups) were estimated by year and county. Geographic inequality was described by the absolute Gini index annually. Life expectancy in Norway has increased from 75.6 to 82.0 years, and the risk of death before the age of 70 has decreased from 26 to 14% from 1980 to 2014. The absolute Gini index decreased over the period 1980 to 2014 from 0.43 to 0.32 for life expectancy, from 0.012 to 0.0057 for the age group 50-69 years, from 0.0038 to 0.0022 for the age group 5-49 years, and from 0.0009 to 0.0006 for the age group 0-4 years. It will take between 2 and 32 years (national average 7 years) until the counties catch up with the life expectancy in the best performing county if their annual rates of increase remain unchanged. Using the absolute Gini index as a metric for monitoring changes in geographic inequality over time may be a valuable tool for informing public health policies. The absolute inequality in mortality and life expectancy between Norwegian counties has decreased from 1980 to 2014.

Breast Cancer Risk From Modifiable and Nonmodifiable Risk Factors Among White Women in the United States

PubMed Central

Maas, Paige; Barrdahl, Myrto; Joshi, Amit D.; Auer, Paul L.; Gaudet, Mia M.; Milne, Roger L.; Schumacher, Fredrick R.; Anderson, William F.; Check, David; Chattopadhyay, Subham; Baglietto, Laura; Berg, Christine D.; Chanock, Stephen J.; Cox, David G.; Figueroa, Jonine D.; Gail, Mitchell H.; Graubard, Barry I.; Haiman, Christopher A.; Hankinson, Susan E.; Hoover, Robert N.; Isaacs, Claudine; Kolonel, Laurence N.; Le Marchand, Loic; Lee, I-Min; Lindström, Sara; Overvad, Kim; Romieu, Isabelle; Sanchez, Maria-Jose; Southey, Melissa C.; Stram, Daniel O.; Tumino, Rosario; VanderWeele, Tyler J.; Willett, Walter C.; Zhang, Shumin; Buring, Julie E.; Canzian, Federico; Gapstur, Susan M.; Henderson, Brian E.; Hunter, David J.; Giles, Graham G; Prentice, Ross L.; Ziegler, Regina G.; Kraft, Peter; Garcia-Closas, Montse; Chatterjee, Nilanjan

2017-01-01

IMPORTANCE An improved model for risk stratification can be useful for guiding public health strategies of breast cancer prevention. OBJECTIVE To evaluate combined risk stratification utility of common low penetrant single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and epidemiologic risk factors. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Using a total of 17 171 cases and 19 862 controls sampled from the Breast and Prostate Cancer Cohort Consortium (BPC3) and 5879 women participating in the 2010 National Health Interview Survey, a model for predicting absolute risk of breast cancer was developed combining information on individual level data on epidemiologic risk factors and 24 genotyped SNPs from prospective cohort studies, published estimate of odds ratios for 68 additional SNPs, population incidence rate from the National Cancer Institute-Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program cancer registry and data on risk factor distribution from nationally representative health survey. The model is used to project the distribution of absolute risk for the population of white women in the United States after adjustment for competing cause of mortality. EXPOSURES Single nucleotide polymorphisms, family history, anthropometric factors, menstrual and/or reproductive factors, and lifestyle factors. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Degree of stratification of absolute risk owing to nonmodifiable (SNPs, family history, height, and some components of menstrual and/or reproductive history) and modifiable factors (body mass index [BMI; calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared], menopausal hormone therapy [MHT], alcohol, and smoking). RESULTS The average absolute risk for a 30-year-old white woman in the United States developing invasive breast cancer by age 80 years is 11.3%. A model that includes all risk factors provided a range of average absolute risk from 4.4% to 23.5% for women in the bottom and top deciles of the risk distribution, respectively. For women who were at the lowest and highest deciles of nonmodifiable risks, the 5th and 95th percentile range of the risk distribution associated with 4 modifiable factors was 2.9% to 5.0% and 15.5% to 25.0%, respectively. For women in the highest decile of risk owing to nonmodifiable factors, those who had low BMI, did not drink or smoke, and did not use MHT had risks comparable to an average woman in the general population. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE This model for absolute risk of breast cancer including SNPs can provide stratification for the population of white women in the United States. The model can also identify subsets of the population at an elevated risk that would benefit most from risk-reduction strategies based on altering modifiable factors. The effectiveness of this model for individual risk communication needs further investigation. PMID:27228256

Cost Effectiveness of Influenza Vaccine Choices in Children Aged 2–8 Years in the U.S.

PubMed Central

Smith, Kenneth J.; Raviotta, Jonathan M.; DePasse, Jay V.; Brown, Shawn T.; Shim, Eunha; Nowalk, Mary Patricia; Zimmerman, Richard K.

2015-01-01

Introduction Prior evidence found live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) more effective than inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV) in children aged 2–8 years, leading CDC in 2014 to prefer LAIV use in this group. However, since 2013, LAIV has not proven superior, leading CDC in 2015 to rescind their LAIV preference statement. Here, the cost effectiveness of preferred LAIV use compared with IIV in children aged 2–8 years is estimated. Methods A Markov model estimated vaccination strategy cost effectiveness in terms of cost per quality-adjusted life year gained. Base case assumptions were: equal vaccine uptake, IIV use when LAIV was not indicated (in 11.7% of the cohort), and no indirect vaccination effects. Sensitivity analyses included estimates of indirect effects from both equation- and agent-based models. Analyses were performed in 2014–2015. Results Using prior effectiveness data in children aged 2–8 years (LAIV=83%, IIV=64%), preferred LAIV use was less costly and more effective than IIV (dominant), with results sensitive only to LAIV and IIV effectiveness variation. Using 2014–2015 U.S. effectiveness data (LAIV=0%, IIV=15%), IIV was dominant. In two-way sensitivity analyses, LAIV use was cost saving over the entire range of IIV effectiveness (0%–81%) when absolute LAIV effectiveness was >7.1% higher than IIV, but never cost saving when absolute LAIV effectiveness was <3.5% higher than IIV. Conclusions Results support CDC’s decision to no longer prefer LAIV use and provide guidance on effectiveness differences between influenza vaccines that might lead to preferential LAIV recommendation for children aged 2–8 years. PMID:26868283

Automatic assessment of functional health decline in older adults based on smart home data.

PubMed

Alberdi Aramendi, Ane; Weakley, Alyssa; Aztiria Goenaga, Asier; Schmitter-Edgecombe, Maureen; Cook, Diane J

2018-05-01

In the context of an aging population, tools to help elderly to live independently must be developed. The goal of this paper is to evaluate the possibility of using unobtrusively collected activity-aware smart home behavioral data to automatically detect one of the most common consequences of aging: functional health decline. After gathering the longitudinal smart home data of 29 older adults for an average of >2 years, we automatically labeled the data with corresponding activity classes and extracted time-series statistics containing 10 behavioral features. Using this data, we created regression models to predict absolute and standardized functional health scores, as well as classification models to detect reliable absolute change and positive and negative fluctuations in everyday functioning. Functional health was assessed every six months by means of the Instrumental Activities of Daily Living-Compensation (IADL-C) scale. Results show that total IADL-C score and subscores can be predicted by means of activity-aware smart home data, as well as a reliable change in these scores. Positive and negative fluctuations in everyday functioning are harder to detect using in-home behavioral data, yet changes in social skills have shown to be predictable. Future work must focus on improving the sensitivity of the presented models and performing an in-depth feature selection to improve overall accuracy. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Impact of weather factors on influenza hospitalization across different age groups in subtropical Hong Kong

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yapeng; Wang, Xi-Ling; Zheng, Xueying

2018-05-01

Accumulating evidence demonstrates the significant influence of weather factors, especially temperature and humidity, on influenza seasonality. However, it is still unclear whether temperature variation within the same day, that is diurnal temperature range (DTR), is related to influenza seasonality. In addition, the different effects of weather factors on influenza seasonality across age groups have not been well documented in previous studies. Our study aims to explore the effects of DTR and humidity on influenza seasonality, and the differences in the association between weather factors and influenza seasonality among different age groups in Hong Kong, China. Generalized additive models were conducted to flexibly assess the impact of DTR, absolute humidity (vapor pressure, VP), and relative humidity on influenza seasonality in Hong Kong, China, from January 2012 to December 2016. Stratified analyses were performed to determine if the effects of weather factors differ across age groups (< 5, 5-9, 10-64, and > 64 years). The results suggested that DTR, absolute humidity, and relative humidity were significantly related to influenza seasonality in dry period (when VP is less than 20 mb), while no significant association was found in humid period (when VP is greater than 20 mb). The percentage changes of hospitalization rates due to influenza associated with per unit increase of weather factors in the very young children (age 0-4) and the elderly (age 65+) were higher than that in the adults (age 10-64). Diurnal temperature range is significantly associated with influenza seasonality in dry period, and the effects of weather factors differ across age groups in Hong Kong, China.

Age-corrected reference values for the Heidelberg multi-color anomaloscope.

PubMed

Rüfer, Florian; Sauter, Benno; Klettner, Alexa; Göbel, Katja; Flammer, Josef; Erb, Carl

2012-09-01

To determine reference values for the HMC anomaloscope (Heidelberg multi-color anomaloscope) of healthy subjects. One hundred and thirteen healthy subjects were divided into four age groups: <20 years of age (ten female, five male), 20-39 years of age (23 female, 15 male), 40-59 years of age (23 female, ten male) and >60 years of age (nine female, 18 male). Match midpoint, matching range (MR) and anomaly quotient (AQ), according to the Moreland equation [blue (436 nm) + blue-green (490 nm) = cyan (480 nm) + yellow (589 nm)] and according to the Rayleigh equation [green (546 nm) + red (671 nm) = yellow (589 nm)] were determined. The neutral adaptation was done showing white light every 5 seconds in absolute mode and every 15 seconds in relative mode. The mean match midpoint according to the Rayleigh equation was 43.9 ± 2.6 scale units in absolute mode. It was highest between 20-39 years (45.2 ± 2.2) and lowest in subjects >60 years of age (42.2 ± 2.2). The mean MR in absolute mode was 3.1 ± 3.5 scale units with a maximum >60 years (4.4 ± 4.4). The MR in relative mode was between 1.6 ± 1.9 (20-39 years) and 4.4 ± 3.8 (>60 years). The resulting mean AQ was 1.01 ± 0.15 in both modes. The mean match midpoint of the Moreland equation was 51.0 ± 5.2 scale units in absolute mode. It was highest between 20-39 years (52.5 ± 5.7), and lowest in subjects >60 years of age (48.7 ± 3.6). The mean MR according to the Moreland equation was lower in absolute mode (13.4 ± 15.6) than in relative mode (16.2 ± 15.2). The mean resulting AQ was 1.02 ± 0.21 in both modes. The values of this study can be used as references for the diagnosis of red-green and blue perception impairment with the HMC anomaloscope.

Evaluating the performance of the Lee-Carter method and its variants in modelling and forecasting Malaysian mortality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zakiyatussariroh, W. H. Wan; Said, Z. Mohammad; Norazan, M. R.

2014-12-01

This study investigated the performance of the Lee-Carter (LC) method and it variants in modeling and forecasting Malaysia mortality. These include the original LC, the Lee-Miller (LM) variant and the Booth-Maindonald-Smith (BMS) variant. These methods were evaluated using Malaysia's mortality data which was measured based on age specific death rates (ASDR) for 1971 to 2009 for overall population while those for 1980-2009 were used in separate models for male and female population. The performance of the variants has been examined in term of the goodness of fit of the models and forecasting accuracy. Comparison was made based on several criteria namely, mean square error (MSE), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute deviation (MAD) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The results indicate that BMS method was outperformed in in-sample fitting for overall population and when the models were fitted separately for male and female population. However, in the case of out-sample forecast accuracy, BMS method only best when the data were fitted to overall population. When the data were fitted separately for male and female, LCnone performed better for male population and LM method is good for female population.

Absolute pitch among American and Chinese conservatory students: prevalence differences, and evidence for a speech-related critical period.

PubMed

Deutsch, Diana; Henthorn, Trevor; Marvin, Elizabeth; Xu, HongShuai

2006-02-01

Absolute pitch is extremely rare in the U.S. and Europe; this rarity has so far been unexplained. This paper reports a substantial difference in the prevalence of absolute pitch in two normal populations, in a large-scale study employing an on-site test, without self-selection from within the target populations. Music conservatory students in the U.S. and China were tested. The Chinese subjects spoke the tone language Mandarin, in which pitch is involved in conveying the meaning of words. The American subjects were nontone language speakers. The earlier the age of onset of musical training, the greater the prevalence of absolute pitch; however, its prevalence was far greater among the Chinese than the U.S. students for each level of age of onset of musical training. The findings suggest that the potential for acquiring absolute pitch may be universal, and may be realized by enabling infants to associate pitches with verbal labels during the critical period for acquisition of features of their native language.

Risk of lung cancer associated with domestic use of coal in Xuanwei, China: retrospective cohort study

PubMed Central

Chapman, Robert S; Silverman, Debra T; He, Xinghzhou; Hu, Wei; Vermeulen, Roel; Ning, Bofu; Fraumeni, Joseph F; Rothman, Nathaniel; Lan, Qing

2012-01-01

Objective To estimate the risk of lung cancer associated with the use of different types of coal for household cooking and heating. Setting Xuanwei County, Yunnan Province, China. Design Retrospective cohort study (follow-up 1976-96) comparing mortality from lung cancer between lifelong users of “smoky coal” (bituminous) and “smokeless coal” (anthracite). Participants 27 310 individuals using smoky coal and 9962 individuals using smokeless coal during their entire life. Main outcome measures Primary outcomes were absolute and relative risk of death from lung cancer among users of different types of coal. Unadjusted survival analysis was used to estimate the absolute risk of lung cancer, while Cox regression models compared mortality hazards for lung cancer between smoky and smokeless coal users. Results Lung cancer mortality was substantially higher among users of smoky coal than users of smokeless coal. The absolute risks of lung cancer death before 70 years of age for men and women using smoky coal were 18% and 20%, respectively, compared with less than 0.5% among smokeless coal users of both sexes. Lung cancer alone accounted for about 40% of all deaths before age 60 among individuals using smoky coal. Compared with smokeless coal, use of smoky coal was associated with an increased risk of lung cancer death (for men, hazard ratio 36 (95% confidence interval 20 to 65); for women, 99 (37 to 266)). Conclusions In Xuanwei, the domestic use of smoky coal is associated with a substantial increase in the absolute lifetime risk of developing lung cancer and is likely to represent one of the strongest effects of environmental pollution reported for cancer risk. Use of less carcinogenic types of coal could translate to a substantial reduction of lung cancer risk. PMID:22936785

Results of Radiocarbon Dating of Holocene Deposits from the Sea of Azov

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matishov, G. G.; Kovaleva, G. V.; Arslanov, Kh. A.; Dyuzhova, K. V.; Polshin, V. V.; Zolotareva, A. E.

2018-04-01

New data on the absolute age of Quaternary bottom deposits from the Sea of Azov based on the results of radiocarbon analysis (14C) are presented. Overall, 67 radiocarbon dating of bottom deposits of New and Ancient Azov Ages were obtained. The thickness of sediments of the New Azov Age and their distribution over different areas of the Sea of Azov was determined during the study; the results obtained were compared with the reference data available. An integrated approach to the study of deposits, based on the combination of the biostratigraphy methods and the results of absolute age dating, was applied.

FUNDAMENTAL PARAMETERS AND SPECTRAL ENERGY DISTRIBUTIONS OF YOUNG AND FIELD AGE OBJECTS WITH MASSES SPANNING THE STELLAR TO PLANETARY REGIME

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Filippazzo, Joseph C.; Rice, Emily L.; Faherty, Jacqueline

We combine optical, near-infrared, and mid-infrared spectra and photometry to construct expanded spectral energy distributions for 145 field age (>500 Myr) and 53 young (lower age estimate <500 Myr) ultracool dwarfs (M6-T9). This range of spectral types includes very low mass stars, brown dwarfs, and planetary mass objects, providing fundamental parameters across both the hydrogen and deuterium burning minimum masses for the largest sample assembled to date. A subsample of 29 objects have well constrained ages as probable members of a nearby young moving group. We use 182 parallaxes and 16 kinematic distances to determine precise bolometric luminosities (L{sub bol})more » and radius estimates from evolutionary models give semi-empirical effective temperatures (T{sub eff}) for the full range of young and field age late-M, L, and T dwarfs. We construct age-sensitive relationships of luminosity, temperature, and absolute magnitude as functions of spectral type and absolute magnitude to disentangle the effects of degenerate physical parameters such as T{sub eff}, surface gravity, and clouds on spectral morphology. We report bolometric corrections in J for both field age and young objects and find differences of up to a magnitude for late-L dwarfs. Our correction in Ks shows a larger dispersion but not necessarily a different relationship for young and field age sequences. We also characterize the NIR–MIR reddening of low gravity L dwarfs and identify a systematically cooler T{sub eff} of up to 300 K from field age objects of the same spectral type and 400 K cooler from field age objects of the same M{sub H} magnitude.« less

The effect of modeled absolute timing variability and relative timing variability on observational learning.

PubMed

Grierson, Lawrence E M; Roberts, James W; Welsher, Arthur M

2017-05-01

There is much evidence to suggest that skill learning is enhanced by skill observation. Recent research on this phenomenon indicates a benefit of observing variable/erred demonstrations. In this study, we explore whether it is variability within the relative organization or absolute parameterization of a movement that facilitates skill learning through observation. To do so, participants were randomly allocated into groups that observed a model with no variability, absolute timing variability, relative timing variability, or variability in both absolute and relative timing. All participants performed a four-segment movement pattern with specific absolute and relative timing goals prior to and following the observational intervention, as well as in a 24h retention test and transfers tests that featured new relative and absolute timing goals. Absolute timing error indicated that all groups initially acquired the absolute timing, maintained their performance at 24h retention, and exhibited performance deterioration in both transfer tests. Relative timing error revealed that the observation of no variability and relative timing variability produced greater performance at the post-test, 24h retention and relative timing transfer tests, but for the no variability group, deteriorated at absolute timing transfer test. The results suggest that the learning of absolute timing following observation unfolds irrespective of model variability. However, the learning of relative timing benefits from holding the absolute features constant, while the observation of no variability partially fails in transfer. We suggest learning by observing no variability and variable/erred models unfolds via similar neural mechanisms, although the latter benefits from the additional coding of information pertaining to movements that require a correction. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy (MRS) of Prostatic Fluids for Early Detection of Prostate Cancer

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-10-01

nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy (1H-NMRS). The metabolites quantified included citrate, spermine, myo- inositol , lactate, alanine...adjusting for age. The LR models indicated that the absolute concentrations of citrate, myo- inositol , and spermine were highly predictive of PCa and...inversely related to the risk of PCa. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROC) for citrate, myo- inositol and spermine were

Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy (MRS) of Prostatic Fluids for Early Detection of Prostate Cancer

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-04-01

quantitative proton nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy (1H-NMRS). The metabolites quantified included citrate, spermine, myo- inositol , lactate, alanine...concentrations while adjusting for age. The LR models indicated that the absolute concentrations of citrate, myo- inositol , and spermine were highly predictive...of PCa and inversely related to the risk of PCa. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROC) for citrate, myo- inositol and

Musings about the word “absolute” in Earth science literature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duffield, Wendell A.

Rather than face the prospect of old age and retirement sometimes disturbed by the niggling feeling that I should have said something earlier, here is a public statement about a pet peeve concerning the use, if not the abuse and misuse, of the word absolute as it appears in a variety of Earth science literature. The triggering event for taking action, after a couple of decades of inaction, was seeing yet another title of the sort “The Absolute Age of the… Volcanic Rock”, combined with a little too much spare time during evenings in a lonely, isolated field camp.Because my interests are principally in magmatic systems and secondarily in global plate tectonics, I see absolute used mostly with reference to the ages of igneous rocks and to the motions of lithospheric plates. People in other fields of Earth science surely will think of their own examples.

Chronology of the halo globular cluster system formation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salaris, M.; Weiss, A.

1997-11-01

Using up-to-date stellar models and isochrones we determine the age of 25 galactic halo clusters. The clusters are distributed into four groups according to metallicity. We measure the absolute age of a reference cluster in each group, and then find the relative ages of the other clusters relative to this one. This combination yields the most reliable results. We find that the oldest cluster group on average is 11.8+/-0.9Gyr or 12.3+/-0.3Gyr old, depending on whether we include Arp 2 and Rup 106. The average age of all clusters is about 10.5Gyr. Questions concerning a common age for all clusters and a relation between metallicity and age are addressed. The groups of lower metallicity appear to be coeval, but our results indicate that globally the sample has an age spread, and age and metallicity are correlated but not with a simple linear relation.

Association of Changes in Air Quality With Bronchitic Symptoms in Children in California, 1993-2012.

PubMed

Berhane, Kiros; Chang, Chih-Chieh; McConnell, Rob; Gauderman, W James; Avol, Edward; Rapapport, Ed; Urman, Robert; Lurmann, Fred; Gilliland, Frank

2016-04-12

Childhood bronchitic symptoms are significant public and clinical health problems that produce a substantial burden of disease. Ambient air pollutants are important determinants of bronchitis occurrence. To determine whether improvements in ambient air quality in Southern California were associated with reductions in bronchitic symptoms in children. A longitudinal study involving 4602 children (age range, 5-18 years) from 3 cohorts was conducted during the 1993-2001, 1996-2004, and 2003-2012 years in 8 Southern California communities. A multilevel logistic model was used to estimate the association of changes in pollution levels with bronchitic symptoms. Average concentrations of nitrogen dioxide, ozone, particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 10 µm (PM10) and less than 2.5 µm (PM2.5). Annual age-specific prevalence of bronchitic symptoms during the previous 12 months based on the parent's or child's report of a daily cough for 3 months in a row, congestion or phlegm other than when accompanied by a cold, or bronchitis. The 3 cohorts included a total of 4602 children (mean age at baseline, 8.0 years; 2268 girls [49.3%]; 2081 Hispanic white [45.2%]) who had data from 2 or more annual questionnaires. Among these children, 892 (19.4%) had asthma at age 10 years. For nitrogen dioxide, the odds ratio (OR) for bronchitic symptoms among children with asthma at age 10 years was 0.79 (95% CI, 0.67-0.94) for a median reduction of 4.9 ppb, with absolute decrease in prevalence of 10.1%. For ozone, the OR was 0.66 (95% CI, 0.50-0.86) for a median reduction of 3.6 ppb, with an absolute decrease in prevalence of 16.3%. For PM10, the OR was 0.61 (95% CI, 0.48-0.78) for a median reduction of 5.8 µg/m3, with an absolute decrease in prevalence of 18.7%. For PM2.5, the OR was 0.68 (95% CI, 0.53-0.86) for a median reduction of 6.8 µg/m3, with absolute decrease in prevalence of 15.4%. Among children without asthma (n = 3710), the ORs were 0.84 (95% CI, 0.76-0.92) for nitrogen dioxide; 0.85 (95% CI, 0.74-0.97) for ozone, 0.80 (95% CI, 0.70-0.92) for PM10, and 0.79 (95% CI, 0.69-0.91) for PM2.5; with absolute decrease in prevalence of 1.8% for nitrogen dioxide, 1.7% for ozone, 2.2% for PM10, and 2.3% for PM2.5. The associations were similar or slightly stronger at age 15 years. Decreases in ambient pollution levels were associated with statistically significant decreases in bronchitic symptoms in children. Although the study design does not establish causality, the findings support potential benefit of air pollution reduction on asthma control.

Magnetic resonance imaging determination of left ventricular mass: junior Olympic weightlifters.

PubMed

Fleck, S J; Pattany, P M; Stone, M H; Kraemer, W J; Thrush, J; Wong, K

1993-04-01

The relationship between left ventricular mass (LVM) and peak VO2 in junior elite Olympic-style weightlifters and sedentary subjects was investigated. Ten male weightlifters (mean +/- SE, age = 17.5 +/- 0.4 yr, wt = 72.9 +/- 3.3 kg) and 15 sedentary males (age = 18.8 +/- 0.4 yr, wt = 69.6 +/- 2.0 kg) served as subjects. Peak VO2 was measured using a continuous, incrementally loaded bicycle ergometry protocol. LVM was measured using magnetic resonance imaging techniques. Absolute peak VO2 was not significantly different (P > or = 0.05) between the weightlifters and the control subjects (3.5 +/- 0.1 vs 3.3 +/- 0.11.min-1). Absolute LVM (g) was significantly (P < or = 0.05) correlated to absolute peak VO2 (1.min-1) in the weightlifters (r = 0.723), but not in the control subjects. No other correlations between LVM in absolute or normalized by body weight, body surface area, or fat free mass terms, and absolute peak or normalized by body weight peak VO2 were significant. The weightlifters absolute LVM was significantly greater (P < or = 0.05) than that of the controls (208.1 +/- 10.0 vs 179.7 +/- 8.4 g). LVM normalized by body weight and body surface area but not by fat free mass, was significantly greater (P < or = 0.05) in the weightlifters than the control subjects. These data indicate that LVM in junior elite weightlifters is greater than that of control subjects and absolute LVM is related to absolute peak VO2 in weightlifters but not control subjects.

Population-based absolute risk estimation with survey data

PubMed Central

Kovalchik, Stephanie A.; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.

2013-01-01

Absolute risk is the probability that a cause-specific event occurs in a given time interval in the presence of competing events. We present methods to estimate population-based absolute risk from a complex survey cohort that can accommodate multiple exposure-specific competing risks. The hazard function for each event type consists of an individualized relative risk multiplied by a baseline hazard function, which is modeled nonparametrically or parametrically with a piecewise exponential model. An influence method is used to derive a Taylor-linearized variance estimate for the absolute risk estimates. We introduce novel measures of the cause-specific influences that can guide modeling choices for the competing event components of the model. To illustrate our methodology, we build and validate cause-specific absolute risk models for cardiovascular and cancer deaths using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Our applications demonstrate the usefulness of survey-based risk prediction models for predicting health outcomes and quantifying the potential impact of disease prevention programs at the population level. PMID:23686614

Areal Crater Density Analysis of Volcanic Smooth Plains: A New Approach to Distinguishing Age Units

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ostrach, L. R.; Robinson, M. S.

2013-12-01

It is well documented that the lunar maria were emplaced over an extended period of time [e.g., 1-3], and mare units exhibit significant color differences in multispectral data that are interpreted to correlate with distinct mineralogical compositions and ages [e.g., 3-7]. Areal crater density (ACD) analysis is used as a novel approach to identify resurfacing boundaries within Mare Imbrium as a test case for mercurian studies. Absolute model age dating and measures of ACD from crater counts on Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Wide Angle Camera (LRO WAC) mosaics reveal two spatially expansive, statistically separable units in Mare Imbrium. The older, spectrally red unit (~15-18 wt% FeO, ~2-5 wt% TiO2 [8]) in the east is ~3.3 Ga, and the younger, spectrally blue unit (~17-20 wt% FeO, ~7-10 wt% TiO2 [8]) in the west is ~2.2 Ga. ACD measurements show a regional boundary at the contact between these two regions. The geologic contact is confidently observed in ACD maps derived for regions with model age differences >300-500 million years and spatial extents >1 × 104 km2. The older, spectrally red unit exhibits higher ACD (>35000 craters with diameters ≥500 m per 106 km2) and the younger, spectrally blue unit has a lower ACD (<26000 craters with diameters ≥500 m per 106 km2); the absolute model ages and ACD results agree with other dating studies of this region [5, 9-12]. Thus, ACD measurements provide a reliable technique to distinguish relative ages among geologic units as well as a means to explore the statistical significance of published absolute model ages. Moreover, the ability to distinguish surface units of different ages from measures of crater frequencies in Mare Imbrium, when spectral information is not available or units do not exhibit spectral contrasts, shows that the ACD technique may be applied to other planetary bodies to search for age boundaries within contiguous smooth plains units. For example, multispectral differences within volcanic units (age and composition) are not observed on Mercury [e.g., 13-15], so the ACD method can be used to test hypotheses concerning timing of smooth plains emplacement [15]. [1] Hartmann W.K. et al. (1981) In: BVTP, 1049-1127. [2] Stöffler D. et al. (2006) Rev. Mineral. Geochem, 60, 519-596. [3] Hiesinger H. et al. (2011) Spec. Pap. - Geol. Soc. Am, 477, 1-51. [4] Pieters C.M. (1978) Proc. Lunar Plan. Sci. Conf, 9th, 2825-2849. [5] Hiesinger H. et al. (2000) J. Geophys. Res, 105, 29239-29275. [6] Staid M.I. and C.M. Pieters (2001) J. Geophys. Res, 106, 27887-27900. [7] Staid M.I. et al. (2011) J. Geophys. Res, 116, E00G10. [8] Lucey P.G. et al. (2000) J. Geophys. Res, 105, 20297-20306. [9] Schaber G.G. (1973) In: Apollo 17 PSR, NASA SP-330, 30-17 to 30-25. [10] Schaber G.G. et al. (1975) The Moon, 13, 395-423. [11] Boyce J.M. and A.L. Dial Jr. (1975) Proc. Lunar Sci. Conf, 6th, 2585-2595. [12] Bugiolacchi R. and J.E. Guest (2008) Icarus, 197, 1-18. [13] Robinson M.S. et al. (2008) Science, 321, 66-69. [14] Denevi B.W. et al. (2009) Science, 324, 613-618. [15] Denevi B.W. et al. (2013) J. Geophys. Res, 118, 1-17.

A prediction model for cognitive performance in health ageing using diffusion tensor imaging with graph theory.

PubMed

Yun, Ruijuan; Lin, Chung-Chih; Wu, Shuicai; Huang, Chu-Chung; Lin, Ching-Po; Chao, Yi-Ping

2013-01-01

In this study, we employed diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) to construct brain structural network and then derive the connection matrices from 96 healthy elderly subjects. The correlation analysis between these topological properties of network based on graph theory and the Cognitive Abilities Screening Instrument (CASI) index were processed to extract the significant network characteristics. These characteristics were then integrated to estimate the models by various machine-learning algorithms to predict user's cognitive performance. From the results, linear regression model and Gaussian processes model showed presented better abilities with lower mean absolute errors of 5.8120 and 6.25 to predict the cognitive performance respectively. Moreover, these extracted topological properties of brain structural network derived from DTI also could be regarded as the bio-signatures for further evaluation of brain degeneration in healthy aged and early diagnosis of mild cognitive impairment (MCI).

Absolute plate motion of Africa around Hawaii-Emperor bend time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maher, S. M.; Wessel, P.; Müller, R. D.; Williams, S. E.; Harada, Y.

2015-06-01

Numerous regional plate reorganizations and the coeval ages of the Hawaiian Emperor bend (HEB) and Louisville bend of 50-47 Ma have been interpreted as a possible global tectonic plate reorganization at ˜chron 21 (47.9 Ma). Yet for a truly global event we would expect a contemporaneous change in Africa absolute plate motion (APM) reflected by physical evidence distributed on the Africa Plate. This evidence has been postulated to take the form of the Réunion-Mascarene bend which exhibits many HEB-like features, such as a large angular change close to ˜chron 21. However, the Réunion hotspot trail has recently been interpreted as a sequence of continental fragments with incidental hotspot volcanism. Here we show that the alternative Réunion-Mascarene Plateau trail can also satisfy the age progressions and geometry of other hotspot trails on the Africa Plate. The implied motion, suggesting a pivoting of Africa from 67 to 50 Ma, could explain the apparent bifurcation of the Tristan hotspot chain, the age reversals seen along the Walvis Ridge, the sharp curve of the Canary trail, and the diffuse nature of the St. Helena chain. To test this hypothesis further we made a new Africa APM model that extends back to ˜80 Ma using a modified version of the Hybrid Polygonal Finite Rotation Method. This method uses seamount chains and their associated hotspots as geometric constraints for the model, and seamount age dates to determine APM through time. While this model successfully explains many of the volcanic features, it implies an unrealistically fast global lithospheric net rotation, as well as improbable APM trajectories for many other plates, including the Americas, Eurasia and Australia. We contrast this speculative model with a more conventional model in which the Mascarene Plateau is excluded in favour of the Chagos-Laccadive Ridge rotated into the Africa reference frame. This second model implies more realistic net lithospheric rotation and far-field APMs, but fails to explain key details of the Atlantic Ocean volcanic chains. Both models predict a Canary plume influence beneath the Madeiras. Neither model, when projected via the global plate circuit into the Pacific, predicts any significant change in plate motion around chron 21. Consequently, Africa APM models do not appear to provide independent support for a chron 21 global reorganization.

Accepting "total and complete responsibility": new age neo-feminist violence against women.

PubMed

Sethna, C

1992-02-01

Barry Konikov, a hypnotherapist, of Potentials Unlimited Inc., a Michigan-based company which produces approximately 160 Subliminal Persuasion/Self Hypnosis tapes, promises his listeners miracles. The tapes on premenstrual syndrome, abortion, and sexual abuse were analyzed. The self-hypnosis message by Konikov is dangerous for women, because his antifeminism, misogyny, and patriarchism are couched insidiously within New Age neofeminism. Under therapeutic guidance the woman listener can direct her own transformation to complete mental, physical, and spiritual well-being, and her new and improved self is so empowered as to accept total and complete responsibility to overcome the hurt about menstruation, abortion, or sexual abuse. Growth therapies such as Gestalt, guided fantasies, and bioenergetics undermine women with false promises of power. If women are so powerful, then it is their fault if they got raped, or battered, or if they have not received love, money, and inner peace. While seemingly empowering women to develop a strong sense of personal agency, Konikov ignores the patriarchal structures which intersect his women listeners' experience of menstrual discomfort, abortion, and sexual abuse. Konikov's New Age, neofeminist stance contains 4 stages of healing: responsibility, absolution, forgiveness, and resolution. Accepting responsibility for the wound next leads to absolution, and particularly absolution for men. As an example of absolution, Konikov's woman client-ex-plantation slave accepted her past-life relationship to her husband, absolved him of guild, and decided upon a divorce. The issue of absolution widens into forgiveness in the healing process, whereby Konikov wants women to hypnotize themselves therapy should be to help a woman see how her own power as an individual is inextricably bound to the collective power of women as a group. There is no doubt that the New Age neofeminist stance taken by Konikov on the tapes leaves women profoundly disempowered.

A modelling approach to assessing the timescale uncertainties in proxy series with chronological errors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Divine, D. V.; Godtliebsen, F.; Rue, H.

2012-01-01

The paper proposes an approach to assessment of timescale errors in proxy-based series with chronological uncertainties. The method relies on approximation of the physical process(es) forming a proxy archive by a random Gamma process. Parameters of the process are partly data-driven and partly determined from prior assumptions. For a particular case of a linear accumulation model and absolutely dated tie points an analytical solution is found suggesting the Beta-distributed probability density on age estimates along the length of a proxy archive. In a general situation of uncertainties in the ages of the tie points the proposed method employs MCMC simulations of age-depth profiles yielding empirical confidence intervals on the constructed piecewise linear best guess timescale. It is suggested that the approach can be further extended to a more general case of a time-varying expected accumulation between the tie points. The approach is illustrated by using two ice and two lake/marine sediment cores representing the typical examples of paleoproxy archives with age models based on tie points of mixed origin.

Absolute versus relative measures of plasma fatty acids and health outcomes: example of phospholipid omega-3 and omega-6 fatty acids and all-cause mortality in women.

PubMed

Miura, Kyoko; Hughes, Maria Celia B; Ungerer, Jacobus P J; Smith, David D; Green, Adèle C

2018-03-01

In a well-characterised community-based prospective study, we aimed to systematically assess the differences in associations of plasma omega-3 and omega-6 fatty acid (FA) status with all-cause mortality when plasma FA status is expressed in absolute concentrations versus relative levels. In a community sample of 564 women aged 25-75 years in Queensland, Australia, baseline plasma phospholipid FA levels were measured using gas chromatography. Specific FAs analysed were eicosapentaenoic acid, docosapentaenoic acid, docosahexaenoic acid, total long-chain omega-3 FAs, linoleic acid, arachidonic acid, and total omega-6 FAs. Levels of each FA were expressed in absolute amounts (µg/mL) and relative levels (% of total FAs) and divided into thirds. Deaths were monitored for 17 years and hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals calculated to assess risk of death according to absolute versus relative plasma FA levels. In total 81 (14%) women died during follow-up. Agreement between absolute and relative measures of plasma FAs was higher in omega-3 than omega-6 FAs. The results of multivariate analyses for risk of all-cause mortality were generally similar with risk tending to inverse associations with plasma phospholipid omega-3 FAs and no association with omega-6 FAs. Sensitivity analyses examining effects of age and presence of serious medical conditions on risk of mortality did not alter findings. The directions and magnitude of associations with mortality of absolute versus relative FA levels were comparable. However, plasma FA expressed as absolute concentrations may be preferred for ease of comparison and since relative units can be deduced from absolute units.

Eruption history of the Tharsis shield volcanoes, Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Plescia, J. B.

1993-01-01

The Tharsis Montes volcanoes and Olympus Mons are giant shield volcanoes. Although estimates of their average surface age have been made using crater counts, the length of time required to build the shields has not been considered. Crater counts for the volcanoes indicate the constructs are young; average ages are Amazonian to Hesperian. In relative terms; Arsia Mons is the oldest, Pavonis Mons intermediate, and Ascreaus Mons the youngest of the Tharsis Montes shield; Olympus Mons is the youngest of the group. Depending upon the calibration, absolute ages range from 730 Ma to 3100 Ma for Arsia Mons and 25 Ma to 100 Ma for Olympus Mons. These absolute chronologies are highly model dependent, and indicate only the time surficial volcanism ceased, not the time over which the volcano was built. The problem of estimating the time necessary to build the volcanoes can be attacked in two ways. First, eruption rates from terrestrial and extraterrestrial examples can be used to calculate the required period of time to build the shields. Second, some relation of eruptive activity between the volcanoes can be assumed, such as they all began at a speficic time or they were active sequentially, and calculate the eruptive rate. Volumes of the shield volcanoes were derived from topographic/volume data.

DNA methylation markers in combination with skeletal and dental ages to improve age estimation in children.

PubMed

Shi, Lei; Jiang, Fan; Ouyang, Fengxiu; Zhang, Jun; Wang, Zhimin; Shen, Xiaoming

2018-03-01

Age estimation is critical in forensic science, in competitive sports and games and in other age-related fields, but the current methods are suboptimal. The combination of age-associated DNA methylation markers with skeletal age (SA) and dental age (DA) may improve the accuracy and precision of age estimation, but no study has examined this topic. In the current study, we measured SA (GP, TW3-RUS, and TW3-Carpal methods) and DA (Demirjian and Willems methods) by X-ray examination in 124 Chinese children (78 boys and 46 girls) aged 6-15 years. To identify age-associated CpG sites, we analyzed methylome-wide DNA methylation profiling by using the Illumina HumanMethylation450 BeadChip system in 48 randomly selected children. Five CpG sites were identified as associated with chronologic age (CA), with an absolute value of Pearson's correlation coefficient (r)>0.5 (p<0.01) and a false discovery rate<0.01. The validation of age-associated CpG sites was performed using droplet digital PCR techniques in all 124 children. After validation, four CpG sites for boys and five CpG sites for girls were further adopted to build the age estimation model with SA and DA using multivariate linear stepwise regressions. These CpG sites were located at 4 known genes: DDO, PRPH2, DHX8, and ITGA2B and at one unknown gene with the Illumina ID number of 22398226. The accuracy of age estimation methods was compared according to the mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE). The best single measure for SA was the TW3-RUS method (MAE=0.69years, RMSE=0.95years) in boys, and the GP method (MAE=0.74years, RMSE=0.94years) in girls. For DA, the Willems method was the best single measure for both boys (MAE=0.63years, RMSE=0.78years) and girls (MAE=0.54years, RMSE=0.68years). The models that incorporated SA and DA with the methylation levels of age-associated CpG sites provided the highest accuracy of age estimation in both boys (MAE=0.47years, R 2 =0.886) and girls (MAE=0.33years, R 2 =0.941). Cross validation of the results confirmed the reliability and validity of the models. In conclusion, age-associated DNA methylation markers in combination with SA and DA greatly improve the accuracy of age estimation in Chinese children. This method may be applied in forensic science, in competitive sports and games and in other age-related fields. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Assessment of MRI-Based Automated Fetal Cerebral Cortical Folding Measures in Prediction of Gestational Age in the Third Trimester.

PubMed

Wu, J; Awate, S P; Licht, D J; Clouchoux, C; du Plessis, A J; Avants, B B; Vossough, A; Gee, J C; Limperopoulos, C

2015-07-01

Traditional methods of dating a pregnancy based on history or sonographic assessment have a large variation in the third trimester. We aimed to assess the ability of various quantitative measures of brain cortical folding on MR imaging in determining fetal gestational age in the third trimester. We evaluated 8 different quantitative cortical folding measures to predict gestational age in 33 healthy fetuses by using T2-weighted fetal MR imaging. We compared the accuracy of the prediction of gestational age by these cortical folding measures with the accuracy of prediction by brain volume measurement and by a previously reported semiquantitative visual scale of brain maturity. Regression models were constructed, and measurement biases and variances were determined via a cross-validation procedure. The cortical folding measures are accurate in the estimation and prediction of gestational age (mean of the absolute error, 0.43 ± 0.45 weeks) and perform better than (P = .024) brain volume (mean of the absolute error, 0.72 ± 0.61 weeks) or sonography measures (SDs approximately 1.5 weeks, as reported in literature). Prediction accuracy is comparable with that of the semiquantitative visual assessment score (mean, 0.57 ± 0.41 weeks). Quantitative cortical folding measures such as global average curvedness can be an accurate and reliable estimator of gestational age and brain maturity for healthy fetuses in the third trimester and have the potential to be an indicator of brain-growth delays for at-risk fetuses and preterm neonates. © 2015 by American Journal of Neuroradiology.

Do Local Social Hierarchies Matter for Mental Health? A Study of Neighborhood Social Status and Depressive Symptoms in Older Adults

PubMed Central

Cagney, Kathleen A.; Skarupski, Kimberly A.; Everson-Rose, Susan A.; Mendes de Leon, Carlos F.

2016-01-01

Abstract Objectives. Despite a well-established association between relative social position and health, stratification at smaller levels of social organization has received scant attention. Neighborhood is a localized context that has increasing relevance for adults as they age, thus one’s relative position within this type of mesolevel group may have an effect on mental health, independent of absolute level of social and economic resources. We examine the relationship between an older adult’s relative rank within their neighborhoods on two criteria and depressive symptoms. Method. Using data from the Chicago Health and Aging Project, neighborhood relative social position was ascertained for two social domains: income and social reputation (number of neighbors one knows well enough to visit). Using multilevel models, we estimated the effect of relative position within the neighborhood on depressive symptoms, net of absolute level for each domain and average neighborhood level. Results. Higher neighborhood relative rankings on both income and visiting neighbors were associated with fewer depressive symptoms. Although both were modest in effect, the gradient in depressive symptoms was three times steeper for the relative rank of visiting neighbors than for income. Men had steeper gradients than women in both domains, but no race differences were observed. Discussion. These findings suggest that an older adult’s relative position in a local social hierarchy is associated with his/her mental health, net of absolute position. PMID:26333821

Impact of Aortic Valve Calcification, as Measured by MDCT, on Survival in Patients With Aortic Stenosis

PubMed Central

Clavel, Marie-Annick; Pibarot, Philippe; Messika-Zeitoun, David; Capoulade, Romain; Malouf, Joseph; Aggarval, Shivani; Araoz, Phillip A.; Michelena, Hector I.; Cueff, Caroline; Larose, Eric; Miller, Jordan D.; Vahanian, Alec; Enriquez-Sarano, Maurice

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND Aortic valve calcification (AVC) load measures lesion severity in aortic stenosis (AS) and is useful for diagnostic purposes. Whether AVC predicts survival after diagnosis, independent of clinical and Doppler echocardiographic AS characteristics, has not been studied. OBJECTIVES This study evaluated the impact of AVC load, absolute and relative to aortic annulus size (AVCdensity), on overall mortality in patients with AS under conservative treatment and without regard to treatment. METHODS In 3 academic centers, we enrolled 794 patients (mean age, 73 ± 12 years; 274 women) diagnosed with AS by Doppler echocardiography who underwent multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) within the same episode of care. Absolute AVC load and AVCdensity (ratio of absolute AVC to cross-sectional area of aortic annulus) were measured, and severe AVC was separately defined in men and women. RESULTS During follow-up, there were 440 aortic valve implantations (AVIs) and 194 deaths (115 under medical treatment). Univariate analysis showed strong association of absolute AVC and AVCdensity with survival (both, p < 0.0001) with a spline curve analysis pattern of threshold and plateau of risk. After adjustment for age, sex, coronary artery disease, diabetes, symptoms, AS severity on hemodynamic assessment, and LV ejection fraction, severe absolute AVC (adjusted hazard ratio [HR]: 1.75; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.04 to 2.92; p = 0.03) or severe AVCdensity (adjusted HR: 2.44; 95% CI: 1.37 to 4.37; p = 0.002) independently predicted mortality under medical treatment, with additive model predictive value (all, p ≤ 0.04) and a net reclassification index of 12.5% (p = 0.04). Severe absolute AVC (adjusted HR: 1.71; 95% CI: 1.12 to 2.62; p = 0.01) and severe AVCdensity (adjusted HR: 2.22; 95% CI: 1.40 to 3.52; p = 0.001) also independently predicted overall mortality, even with adjustment for time-dependent AVI. CONCLUSIONS This large-scale, multicenter outcomes study of quantitative Doppler echocardiographic and MDCT assessment of AS shows that measuring AVC load provides incremental prognostic value for survival beyond clinical and Doppler echocardiographic assessment. Severe AVC independently predicts excess mortality after AS diagnosis, which is greatly alleviated by AVI. Thus, measurement of AVC by MDCT should be considered for not only diagnostic but also risk-stratification purposes in patients with AS. PMID:25236511

Stroke incidence and mortality trends in US communities, 1987 to 2011.

PubMed

Koton, Silvia; Schneider, Andrea L C; Rosamond, Wayne D; Shahar, Eyal; Sang, Yingying; Gottesman, Rebecca F; Coresh, Josef

2014-07-16

Prior studies have shown decreases in stroke mortality over time, but data on validated stroke incidence and long-term trends by race are limited. To study trends in stroke incidence and subsequent mortality among black and white adults in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) cohort from 1987 to 2011. Prospective cohort study of 14,357 participants (282,097 person-years) free of stroke at baseline was facilitated in 4 different US communities. Participants were recruited for the purpose of studying all stroke hospitalizations and deaths and for collection of baseline information on cardiovascular risk factors (via interviews and physical examinations) in 1987-1989. Participants were followed up (via examinations, annual phone interviews, active surveillance of discharges from local hospitals, and linkage with the National Death Index) through December 31, 2011. The study physician reviewers adjudicated all possible strokes and classified them as definite or probable ischemic or hemorrhagic events. Trends in rates of first-ever stroke per 10 years of calendar time were estimated using Poisson regression incidence rate ratios (IRRs), with subsequent mortality analyzed using Cox proportional hazards regression models and hazard ratios (HRs) overall and by race, sex, and age divided at 65 years. Among 1051 (7%) participants with incident stroke, there were 929 with incident ischemic stroke and 140 with incident hemorrhagic stroke (18 participants had both during the study period). Crude incidence rates were 3.73 (95% CI, 3.51-3.96) per 1000 person-years for total stroke, 3.29 (95% CI, 3.08-3.50) per 1000 person-years for ischemic stroke, and 0.49 (95% CI, 0.41-0.57) per 1000 person-years for hemorrhagic stroke. Stroke incidence decreased over time in white and black participants (age-adjusted IRRs per 10-year period, 0.76 [95% CI, 0.66-0.87]; absolute decrease of 0.93 per 1000 person-years overall). The decrease in age-adjusted incidence was evident in participants age 65 years and older (age-adjusted IRR per 10-year period, 0.69 [95% CI, 0.59-0.81]; absolute decrease of 1.35 per 1000 person-years) but not evident in participants younger than 65 years (age-adjusted IRR per 10-year period, 0.97 [95% CI, 0.76-1.25]; absolute decrease of 0.09 per 1000 person-years) (P = .02 for interaction). The decrease in incidence was similar by sex. Of participants with incident stroke, 614 (58%) died through 2011. The mortality rate was higher for hemorrhagic stroke (68%) than for ischemic stroke (57%). Overall, mortality after stroke decreased over time (hazard ratio [HR], 0.80 [95% CI, 0.66-0.98]; absolute decrease of 8.09 per 100 strokes after 10 years [per 10-year period]). The decrease in mortality was mostly accounted for by the decrease at younger than age 65 years (HR, 0.65 [95% CI, 0.46-0.93]; absolute decrease of 14.19 per 100 strokes after 10 years [per 10-year period]), but was similar across race and sex. In a multicenter cohort of black and white adults in US communities, stroke incidence and mortality rates decreased from 1987 to 2011. The decreases varied across age groups, but were similar across sex and race, showing that improvements in stroke incidence and outcome continued to 2011.

Educational inequalities in mortality over four decades in Norway: prospective study of middle aged men and women followed for cause specific mortality, 1960-2000.

PubMed

Strand, Bjørn Heine; Grøholt, Else-Karin; Steingrímsdóttir, Olöf Anna; Blakely, Tony; Graff-Iversen, Sidsel; Naess, Øyvind

2010-02-23

To determine the extent to which educational inequalities in relation to mortality widened in Norway during 1960-2000 and which causes of death were the main drivers of this disparity. Nationally representative prospective study. Four cohorts of the Norwegian population aged 45-64 years in 1960, 1970, 1980, and 1990 and followed up for mortality over 10 years. 359 547 deaths and 32 904 589 person years. All cause mortality and deaths due to cancer of lung, trachea, or bronchus; other cancer; cardiovascular diseases; suicide; external causes; chronic lower respiratory tract diseases; or other causes. Absolute and relative indices of inequality were used to present differences in mortality by educational level (basic, secondary, and tertiary). Mortality fell from the 1960s to the 1990s in all educational groups. At the same time the proportion of adults in the basic education group, with the highest mortality, decreased substantially. As mortality dropped more among those with the highest level of education, inequalities widened. Absolute inequalities in mortality denoting deaths among the basic education groups minus deaths among the high education groups doubled in men and increased by a third in women. This is equivalent to an increase in the slope index of inequality of 105% in men and 32% in women. Inequalities on a relative scale widened more, from 1.33 to 2.24 among men (P=0.01) and from 1.52 to 2.19 among women (P=0.05). Among men, absolute inequalities mainly increased as a result of cardiovascular diseases, lung cancer, and chronic lower respiratory tract diseases. Among women this was mainly due to lung cancer and chronic lower respiratory tract diseases. Unlike the situation in men, absolute inequalities in deaths due to cardiovascular causes narrowed among women. Chronic lower respiratory tract diseases contributed more to the disparities in inequalities among women than among men. All educational groups showed a decline in mortality. Nevertheless, and despite the fact that the Norwegian welfare model is based on an egalitarian ideology, educational inequalities in mortality among middle aged people in Norway are substantial and increased during 1960-2000.

Origin of discrepancies between crater size-frequency distributions of coeval lunar geologic units via target property contrasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Bogert, C. H.; Hiesinger, H.; Dundas, C. M.; Krüger, T.; McEwen, A. S.; Zanetti, M.; Robinson, M. S.

2017-12-01

Recent work on dating Copernican-aged craters, using Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) Camera data, re-encountered a curious discrepancy in crater size-frequency distribution (CSFD) measurements that was observed, but not understood, during the Apollo era. For example, at Tycho, Copernicus, and Aristarchus craters, CSFDs of impact melt deposits give significantly younger relative and absolute model ages (AMAs) than impact ejecta blankets, although these two units formed during one impact event, and would ideally yield coeval ages at the resolution of the CSFD technique. We investigated the effects of contrasting target properties on CSFDs and their resultant relative and absolute model ages for coeval lunar impact melt and ejecta units. We counted craters with diameters through the transition from strength- to gravity-scaling on two large impact melt deposits at Tycho and King craters, and we used pi-group scaling calculations to model the effects of differing target properties on final crater diameters for five different theoretical lunar targets. The new CSFD for the large King Crater melt pond bridges the gap between the discrepant CSFDs within a single geologic unit. Thus, the observed trends in the impact melt CSFDs support the occurrence of target property effects, rather than self-secondary and/or field secondary contamination. The CSFDs generated from the pi-group scaling calculations show that targets with higher density and effective strength yield smaller crater diameters than weaker targets, such that the relative ages of the former are lower relative to the latter. Consequently, coeval impact melt and ejecta units will have discrepant apparent ages. Target property differences also affect the resulting slope of the CSFD, with stronger targets exhibiting shallower slopes, so that the final crater diameters may differ more greatly at smaller diameters. Besides their application to age dating, the CSFDs may provide additional information about the characteristics of the target. For example, the transition diameter from strength- to gravity-scaling could provide a tool for investigating the relative strengths of different geologic units. The magnitude of the offset between the impact melt and ejecta isochrons may also provide information about the relative target properties and/or exposure/degradation ages of the two units. Robotic or human sampling of coeval units on the Moon could provide a direct test of the importance and magnitude of target property effects on CSFDs.

Origin of discrepancies between crater size-frequency distributions of coeval lunar geologic units via target property contrasts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Van der Bogert, Carolyn H.; Hiesinger, Harald; Dundas, Colin M.; Kruger, T.; McEwen, Alfred S.; Zanetti, Michael; Robinson, Mark S.

2017-01-01

Recent work on dating Copernican-aged craters, using Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) Camera data, re-encountered a curious discrepancy in crater size-frequency distribution (CSFD) measurements that was observed, but not understood, during the Apollo era. For example, at Tycho, Copernicus, and Aristarchus craters, CSFDs of impact melt deposits give significantly younger relative and absolute model ages (AMAs) than impact ejecta blankets, although these two units formed during one impact event, and would ideally yield coeval ages at the resolution of the CSFD technique. We investigated the effects of contrasting target properties on CSFDs and their resultant relative and absolute model ages for coeval lunar impact melt and ejecta units. We counted craters with diameters through the transition from strength- to gravity-scaling on two large impact melt deposits at Tycho and King craters, and we used pi-group scaling calculations to model the effects of differing target properties on final crater diameters for five different theoretical lunar targets. The new CSFD for the large King Crater melt pond bridges the gap between the discrepant CSFDs within a single geologic unit. Thus, the observed trends in the impact melt CSFDs support the occurrence of target property effects, rather than self-secondary and/or field secondary contamination. The CSFDs generated from the pi-group scaling calculations show that targets with higher density and effective strength yield smaller crater diameters than weaker targets, such that the relative ages of the former are lower relative to the latter. Consequently, coeval impact melt and ejecta units will have discrepant apparent ages. Target property differences also affect the resulting slope of the CSFD, with stronger targets exhibiting shallower slopes, so that the final crater diameters may differ more greatly at smaller diameters. Besides their application to age dating, the CSFDs may provide additional information about the characteristics of the target. For example, the transition diameter from strength- to gravity-scaling could provide a tool for investigating the relative strengths of different geologic units. The magnitude of the offset between the impact melt and ejecta isochrons may also provide information about the relative target properties and/or exposure/degradation ages of the two units. Robotic or human sampling of coeval units on the Moon could provide a direct test of the importance and magnitude of target property effects on CSFDs.

Taxing sugar-sweetened beverages: impact on overweight and obesity in Germany.

PubMed

Schwendicke, Falk; Stolpe, Michael

2017-01-17

Consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) increases the risk of overweight and obesity. Taxing SSBs could decrease daily energy consumption and body weight. This model-based study evaluated the impact of a 20% SSB-sales tax on overweight and obesity in the context of Germany. The population aged 15-79 years was modelled. Taxation was assumed to affect energy consumption via demand elasticities, which affected weight and BMI. Model-based analysis was performed to estimate the tax impact on BMI in different age, gender and income groups. Implementing a 20% SSB tax reduced energy consumption mainly in younger age groups, males, and those with low income. Taxation decreased the mean BMI in younger groups, with the largest decrease in those aged 20-29 years, while effects in groups 60 years or above were minimal. In absolute terms, taxation was estimated to avoid 1,028,000 (-3% relative reduction) overweight individuals and 479,000 obese individuals (-4%). Overweight decreased the most in males aged 20-29 years (408,000 fewer cases /-22%), the same applied for obesity (204,000/-22%). An SSB tax could have significant impact on overweight and obesity, which could translate into substantial reductions of morbidity and mortality.

The use of absolute gravity data for the validation of Global Geopotential Models and for improving quasigeoid heights determined from satellite-only Global Geopotential Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Godah, Walyeldeen; Krynski, Jan; Szelachowska, Malgorzata

2018-05-01

The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the usefulness of absolute gravity data for the validation of Global Geopotential Models (GGMs). It is also aimed at improving quasigeoid heights determined from satellite-only GGMs using absolute gravity data. The area of Poland, as a unique one, covered with a homogeneously distributed set of absolute gravity data, has been selected as a study area. The gravity anomalies obtained from GGMs were validated using the corresponding ones determined from absolute gravity data. The spectral enhancement method was implemented to overcome the spectral inconsistency in data being validated. The quasigeoid heights obtained from the satellite-only GGM as well as from the satellite-only GGM in combination with absolute gravity data were evaluated with high accuracy GNSS/levelling data. Estimated accuracy of gravity anomalies obtained from GGMs investigated is of 1.7 mGal. Considering omitted gravity signal, e.g. from degree and order 101 to 2190, satellite-only GGMs can be validated at the accuracy level of 1 mGal using absolute gravity data. An improvement up to 59% in the accuracy of quasigeoid heights obtained from the satellite-only GGM can be observed when combining the satellite-only GGM with absolute gravity data.

New Model for Estimating Glomerular Filtration Rate in Patients With Cancer

PubMed Central

Janowitz, Tobias; Williams, Edward H.; Marshall, Andrea; Ainsworth, Nicola; Thomas, Peter B.; Sammut, Stephen J.; Shepherd, Scott; White, Jeff; Mark, Patrick B.; Lynch, Andy G.; Jodrell, Duncan I.; Tavaré, Simon; Earl, Helena

2017-01-01

Purpose The glomerular filtration rate (GFR) is essential for carboplatin chemotherapy dosing; however, the best method to estimate GFR in patients with cancer is unknown. We identify the most accurate and least biased method. Methods We obtained data on age, sex, height, weight, serum creatinine concentrations, and results for GFR from chromium-51 (51Cr) EDTA excretion measurements (51Cr-EDTA GFR) from white patients ≥ 18 years of age with histologically confirmed cancer diagnoses at the Cambridge University Hospital NHS Trust, United Kingdom. We developed a new multivariable linear model for GFR using statistical regression analysis. 51Cr-EDTA GFR was compared with the estimated GFR (eGFR) from seven published models and our new model, using the statistics root-mean-squared-error (RMSE) and median residual and on an internal and external validation data set. We performed a comparison of carboplatin dosing accuracy on the basis of an absolute percentage error > 20%. Results Between August 2006 and January 2013, data from 2,471 patients were obtained. The new model improved the eGFR accuracy (RMSE, 15.00 mL/min; 95% CI, 14.12 to 16.00 mL/min) compared with all published models. Body surface area (BSA)–adjusted chronic kidney disease epidemiology (CKD-EPI) was the most accurate published model for eGFR (RMSE, 16.30 mL/min; 95% CI, 15.34 to 17.38 mL/min) for the internal validation set. Importantly, the new model reduced the fraction of patients with a carboplatin dose absolute percentage error > 20% to 14.17% in contrast to 18.62% for the BSA-adjusted CKD-EPI and 25.51% for the Cockcroft-Gault formula. The results were externally validated. Conclusion In a large data set from patients with cancer, BSA-adjusted CKD-EPI is the most accurate published model to predict GFR. The new model improves this estimation and may present a new standard of care. PMID:28686534

New Model for Estimating Glomerular Filtration Rate in Patients With Cancer.

PubMed

Janowitz, Tobias; Williams, Edward H; Marshall, Andrea; Ainsworth, Nicola; Thomas, Peter B; Sammut, Stephen J; Shepherd, Scott; White, Jeff; Mark, Patrick B; Lynch, Andy G; Jodrell, Duncan I; Tavaré, Simon; Earl, Helena

2017-08-20

Purpose The glomerular filtration rate (GFR) is essential for carboplatin chemotherapy dosing; however, the best method to estimate GFR in patients with cancer is unknown. We identify the most accurate and least biased method. Methods We obtained data on age, sex, height, weight, serum creatinine concentrations, and results for GFR from chromium-51 ( 51 Cr) EDTA excretion measurements ( 51 Cr-EDTA GFR) from white patients ≥ 18 years of age with histologically confirmed cancer diagnoses at the Cambridge University Hospital NHS Trust, United Kingdom. We developed a new multivariable linear model for GFR using statistical regression analysis. 51 Cr-EDTA GFR was compared with the estimated GFR (eGFR) from seven published models and our new model, using the statistics root-mean-squared-error (RMSE) and median residual and on an internal and external validation data set. We performed a comparison of carboplatin dosing accuracy on the basis of an absolute percentage error > 20%. Results Between August 2006 and January 2013, data from 2,471 patients were obtained. The new model improved the eGFR accuracy (RMSE, 15.00 mL/min; 95% CI, 14.12 to 16.00 mL/min) compared with all published models. Body surface area (BSA)-adjusted chronic kidney disease epidemiology (CKD-EPI) was the most accurate published model for eGFR (RMSE, 16.30 mL/min; 95% CI, 15.34 to 17.38 mL/min) for the internal validation set. Importantly, the new model reduced the fraction of patients with a carboplatin dose absolute percentage error > 20% to 14.17% in contrast to 18.62% for the BSA-adjusted CKD-EPI and 25.51% for the Cockcroft-Gault formula. The results were externally validated. Conclusion In a large data set from patients with cancer, BSA-adjusted CKD-EPI is the most accurate published model to predict GFR. The new model improves this estimation and may present a new standard of care.

Age distribution of emergency department presentations in Victoria.

PubMed

Freed, Gary L; Gafforini, Sarah; Carson, Norman

2015-04-01

To describe patterns of ED utilisation over time, by patient age group and triage classification. Secondary analysis of data from all patients presenting to EDs in Victoria utilising the Victorian Emergency Minimum Dataset (VEMD) for the years 2002-2013. The VEMD includes all hospitals in Victoria with 24 h EDs. The absolute number of presentations to EDs in Victoria has grown by over 52% in the last 11 years. The triage categories of highest urgency (1-3) grew by 89% whereas the categories of lowest urgency (4-5) grew by 33%. Over this period, the 5 year age band with the greatest number of ED presentations has consistently been, by far, children 0-4 years of age. This age group has seen an increase of 29% in ED presentations overall with a >55% increase in Triage 1-3, and an increase of 16% in triage 4-5. For all age groups, there has been little change in the number of triage category 4-5 presentations since 2007/2008. However, for triage categories 1-3, there have been consistent increases in presentations across all age groups. The age range with the greatest absolute number of ED presentations in Victoria is children 0-4 years of age. This finding is consistent over time and across all triage classifications. The age range with the second highest absolute number of ED presentations is comprised of those 20-24 years of age. This is in contrast to the frequent public attention placed on the volume of ED presentations by the elderly. © 2015 Australasian College for Emergency Medicine and Australasian Society for Emergency Medicine.

A >400 kyrs archive of sedimentation in Scladina cave (Belgium)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vonhof, Hubert; Bonjean, Dominique; Pirson, Stéphane; van der Lubbe, Jeroen; Hellstrom, John; Scholz, Denis; Verheyden, Sophie

2017-04-01

Scladina Cave, near the Meuse River in Belgium, is well-known for its well preserved Neanderthal fossils and stone tools. Cave research started in the 1970's, when archeological findings near the entrance of the cave initiated a long-running excavation programme in the -at that time- almost completely sediment-infilled cave. Over the past decades, a wealth of mammal fossils, stone tools, and a mandible of a Neanderthal child were found, and the complex sedimentary context of the cave strata was reconstructed in high detail. Crucial to understanding the cave stratigraphy is the construction of an absolutely dated age model. Until recently, this age model was based on a number of OSL ages, pollen stratigraphy and a few U-series ages on flowstone and stalagmite calcite. These U-series ages, however, had much lower precision than can be obtained by modern MC-ICP-MS techniques. In this study, we present new and more precise U-series ages for the major flow stone levels in Scladina Cave (upper stratigraphical sequence), and two flowstone levels from Sous-Saint-Paul Cave (lower stratigraphical sequence). The oldest flow stone layer dates back to > 400 ka, and the youngest represents the Holocene. The age model shows that flow stone formation typically occurred during warm climate conditions. These findings help to improve the existing age model for Scladina Cave significantly, and place better constraints on the age of individual fossils, and fossil assemblages in the cave.

20 CFR 404.1205 - Absolute coverage groups.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 20 Employees' Benefits 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Absolute coverage groups. 404.1205 Section 404.1205 Employees' Benefits SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION FEDERAL OLD-AGE, SURVIVORS AND DISABILITY... grouping of employees, e.g., all the employees of a city or town. It is a coverage group for coverage and...

Validity of VO(2 max) in predicting blood volume: implications for the effect of fitness on aging

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Convertino, V. A.; Ludwig, D. A.

2000-01-01

A multiple regression model was constructed to investigate the premise that blood volume (BV) could be predicted using several anthropometric variables, age, and maximal oxygen uptake (VO(2 max)). To test this hypothesis, age, calculated body surface area (height/weight composite), percent body fat (hydrostatic weight), and VO(2 max) were regressed on to BV using data obtained from 66 normal healthy men. Results from the evaluation of the full model indicated that the most parsimonious result was obtained when age and VO(2 max) were regressed on BV expressed per kilogram body weight. The full model accounted for 52% of the total variance in BV per kilogram body weight. Both age and VO(2 max) were related to BV in the positive direction. Percent body fat contributed <1% to the explained variance in BV when expressed in absolute BV (ml) or as BV per kilogram body weight. When the model was cross validated on 41 new subjects and BV per kilogram body weight was reexpressed as raw BV, the results indicated that the statistical model would be stable under cross validation (e.g., predictive applications) with an accuracy of +/- 1,200 ml at 95% confidence. Our results support the hypothesis that BV is an increasing function of aerobic fitness and to a lesser extent the age of the subject. The results may have implication as to a mechanism by which aerobic fitness and activity may be protective against reduced BV associated with aging.

Dynamic phenotypic restructuring of the CD4 and CD8 T-cell subsets with age in healthy humans: a compartmental model analysis.

PubMed

Jackola, D R; Hallgren, H M

1998-11-16

In healthy humans, phenotypic restructuring occurs with age within the CD3+ T-lymphocyte complement. This is characterized by a non-linear decrease of the percentage of 'naive' (CD45RA+) cells and a corresponding non-linear increase of the percentage of 'memory' (CD45R0+) cells among both the CD4+ and CD8+ T-cell subsets. We devised a simple compartmental model to study the age-dependent kinetics of phenotypic restructuring. We also derived differential equations whose parameters determined yearly gains minus losses of the percentage and absolute numbers of circulating naive cells, yearly gains minus losses of the percentage and absolute numbers of circulating memory cells, and the yearly rate of conversion of naive to memory cells. Solutions of these evaluative differential equations demonstrate the following: (1) the memory cell complement 'resides' within its compartment for a longer time than the naive cell complement within its compartment for both CD4 and CD8 cells; (2) the average, annual 'turnover rate' is the same for CD4 and CD8 naive cells. In contrast, the average, annual 'turnover rate' for memory CD8 cells is 1.5 times that of memory CD4 cells; (3) the average, annual conversion rate of CD4 naive cells to memory cells is twice that of the CD8 conversion rate; (4) a transition in dynamic restructuring occurs during the third decade of life that is due to these differences in turnover and conversion rates, between and from naive to memory cells.

Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

PubMed

2015-01-10

Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. We estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute differences between countries decreased but relative differences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative differences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100,000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specific mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Vestal Cataclysm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cohen, Barbara A.

2012-01-01

The currently operating Dawn mission shows asteroid 4 Vesta to be an extensively cratered body, with craters in a variety of morphologies and preservation states The crater size-frequency distribution for Vesta, modeled using the lunar chronology and scaled to impact frequencies modeled for Vesta, shows that both the north and south pole areas are ancient in age [1]. We have in our meteorite collection products from 4 Vesta in the form of the HED (howardite, eucrite, diogenite) meteorites. The HED parent body globally differentiated and fully crystallized by approx.4.56 Ga; subsequently, the eucrites were brecciated and heated by large impacts into the parent body surface, reflected in their disturbance ages [2, 3]. Dawn images have also shown that Vesta is covered with a well-developed regolith that is spectrally similar to howardite meteorites [4, 5]. Howardites are polymict regolith breccias made up mostly of clasts of eucrites and diogenites, but which also contain clasts formed by impact into the regolith. Impact-melt clast ages from howardites extend our knowledge of the impact history of Vesta, expanding on eucrite disturbance ages and helping give absolute age context to the observed crater-counts on Vesta.

Association of Changes in Air Quality with Bronchitic Symptoms in Children in California, 1993–2012

PubMed Central

Berhane, Kiros; Chang, Chih-Chieh; McConnell, Rob; Gauderman, W James; Avol, Edward; Rapapport, Ed; Urman, Robert; Lurmann, Fred; Gilliland, Frank

2017-01-01

Importance Childhood bronchitic symptoms are significant public health and clinical problems that produce a substantial burden of disease. Ambient air pollutants are important determinants of bronchitis occurrence. Objective To determine if improvements in ambient air quality in Southern California were associated with reductions in bronchitic symptoms in children. Design, Setting, and Participants A longitudinal study was conducted on 4,602 children (spanning 5–18 years of age) from three cohorts during 1993–2001, 1996–2004 and 2003–2012 in eight Southern California communities. A multilevel logistic model was used to estimate the association of changes in pollution levels with bronchitic symptoms. Exposures Average concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), ozone (O3), particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than 10 μm (PM10) and less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) Main Outcome(s) and Measure(s) Annual age-specific prevalence of bronchitic symptoms during the previous 12 months based on the parent’s or child’s report of a daily cough for 3 months in a row, congestion or phlegm other than when accompanied by a cold, or bronchitis. Results The three cohorts included a total of 4602 children (mean age at baseline, 8.0 years; 2268 (49.3%) girls; 2081 (45.2%) Hispanic white) who had data from two or more annual questionnaires. Among these children, 892 (19.4%) had asthma at age 10. For NO2, the odds ratio [OR] for bronchitic symptoms among children with asthma at age 10 was 0.79 (95% CI,0.67–0.94) for median reduction of 4.9 ppb, with absolute decrease in prevalence of 10.1%. For O3, the OR was 0.66 (95% CI,0.50–0.86) for median reduction of 3.6 ppb, with absolute decrease in prevalence of 16.3%. For PM10, the OR was 0.61 (95% CI,0.48–0.78) for median reduction of 5.8 μg/m3, with absolute decrease in prevalence of 18.7%. For PM2.5, the OR was 0.68 (95% CI,0.53–0.86) for median reduction of 6.8 μg/m3, with absolute decrease in prevalence of 15.4%. Among children without asthma (N=3,710), the corresponding associations were: NO2 (OR,0.84; 95% CI,0.76–0.92); O3 (OR,0.85; 95% CI,0.74–0.97), PM10 (OR,0.80; 95% CI,0.70–0.92), and PM2.5 (OR,0.79; 95% CI,0.69–0.91); with absolute decrease in prevalence of 1.8%, 1.7%, 2.2%, and 2.3% respectively. The associations were similar or slightly stronger at age 15. Conclusions and Relevance Decreases in ambient pollution levels were associated with statistically significant decreases in bronchitic symptoms in children. While the study design does not establish causality, the findings support potential benefit of air pollution reduction on asthma control. PMID:27115265

Moving beyond quiet stance: applicability of the inverted pendulum model to stooping and crouching postures.

PubMed

Weaver, Tyler B; Glinka, Michal N; Laing, Andrew C

2014-11-07

Currently, it is unknown whether the inverted pendulum model is applicable to stooping or crouching postures. Therefore, the aim of this study was to determine the degree of applicability of the inverted pendulum model to these postures, via examination of the relationship between the centre of mass (COM) acceleration and centre of pressure (COP)-COM difference. Ten young adults held static standing, stooping and crouching postures, each for 20s. For both the anterior-posterior (AP) and medio-lateral (ML) directions, the time-varying COM acceleration and the COP-COM were computed, and the relationship between these two variables was determined using Pearson's correlation coefficients. Additionally, in both directions, the average absolute COM acceleration, average absolute COP-COM signal, and the inertial component (i.e., -I/Wh) were compared across postures. Pearson correlation coefficients revealed a significant negative relationship between the COM acceleration and COP-COM signal for all comparisons, regardless of the direction (p<0.001). While no effect of posture was observed in the AP direction (p=0.463), in the ML direction, the correlation coefficients for stooping were different (i.e., stronger) than standing (p=0.008). Regardless of direction, the average absolute COM acceleration for both the stooping and crouching postures was greater than standing (p<0.002). The high correlations indicate that the inverted pendulum model is applicable to stooping and crouching postures. Due to their importance in completing activities of daily living, there is merit in determining what type of motor strategies are used to control such postures and whether these strategies change with age. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pharmacokinetics and absolute bioavailability of phenobarbital in neonates and young infants, a population pharmacokinetic modelling approach.

PubMed

Marsot, Amélie; Brevaut-Malaty, Véronique; Vialet, Renaud; Boulamery, Audrey; Bruguerolle, Bernard; Simon, Nicolas

2014-08-01

Phenobarbital is widely used for treatment of neonatal seizures. Its optimal use in neonates and young infants requires information regarding pharmacokinetics. The objective of this study is to characterize the absolute bioavailability of phenobarbital in neonates and young infants, a pharmacokinetic parameter which has not yet been investigated. Routine clinical pharmacokinetic data were retrospectively collected from 48 neonates and infants (weight: 0.7-10 kg; patient's postnatal age: 0-206 days; GA: 27-42 weeks) treated with phenobarbital, who were administered as intravenous or suspension by oral routes and hospitalized in a paediatric intensive care unit. Total mean dose of 4.6 mg/kg (3.1-10.6 mg/kg) per day was administered by 30-min infusion or by oral route. Pharmacokinetic analysis was performed using a nonlinear mixed-effect population model software). Data were modelled with an allometric pharmacokinetic model, using three-fourths scaling exponent for clearance (CL). The population typical mean [per cent relative standard error (%RSE)] values for CL, apparent volume of distribution (Vd ) and bioavailability (F) were 0.0054 L/H/kg (7%), 0.64 L/kg (15%) and 48.9% (22%), respectively. The interindividual variability of CL, Vd , F (%RSE) and residual variability (%RSE) was 17% (31%), 50% (27%), 39% (27%) and 7.2 mg/L (29%), respectively. The absolute bioavailability of phenobarbital in neonates and infants was estimated. The dose should be increased when switching from intravenous to oral administration. © 2013 Société Française de Pharmacologie et de Thérapeutique. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Age-Distance Relations along the Hawaiian-Emperor Volcanic Chain: History and Current Status

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clague, D. A.

2016-12-01

The increase in age with distance along the Hawaiian-Emperor volcanic chain is a key parameter in models of plate motions and mantle dynamics. Wilson (1963) proposed that the Hawaiian Islands formed sequentially as the Pacific Plate migrated over a hot spot in the Earth's mantle based on the inferred increase in age of the Islands to the west. Morgan (1971) proposed that Wilson's hot spot was a geographically fixed mantle plume originating at the core-mantle boundary, and that the orientation and age-distance relations of the chain provided a measure of absolute plate motion with the bend between the Hawaiian and Emperor chains reflecting a major change in motion of the Pacific Plate at 40 Ma. Defining and refining the age relations along the two chains has taken decades due largely to the remoteness of most of the chain, the difficulties in dating altered submarine lavas, and the presence of glacial debris as far south as 42°25'N in the Emperor Seamounts. Ocean drilling program legs 55 and 197 focused on the age and paleolatitude of Emperor Seamounts. Many of the early ages are K-Ar dates. Later dates are Ar/Ar incremental heating extractions of whole-rocks or, more recently still, of clean mineral separates that yield accurate and precise dates (e.g., Sharp and Clague, 2006). Many reported ages have ill-defined errors, especially those of tholeiitic shield lavas. Over-interpretation of the collected age data seemed to indicate coeval volcanism along large segments of the chain, instead of recognizing the errors inherent in many of the determined ages. Subsequent work, such as at Gardner Pinnacles, has eliminated some of these apparent non-linear age relations. The bend is now recognized as a gradual transition in orientation that occurred between 50 and 42 Ma (Sharp & Clague, 2006); it likely resulted from the collision of India and Eurasia that precipitated a worldwide chain reaction of relative and absolute plate motion changes (Dalrymple & Clague, 1976).

Benefit and harm of intensive blood pressure treatment: Derivation and validation of risk models using data from the SPRINT and ACCORD trials

PubMed Central

Denton, Brian T.; Hayward, Rodney A.

2017-01-01

Background Intensive blood pressure (BP) treatment can avert cardiovascular disease (CVD) events but can cause some serious adverse events. We sought to develop and validate risk models for predicting absolute risk difference (increased risk or decreased risk) for CVD events and serious adverse events from intensive BP therapy. A secondary aim was to test if the statistical method of elastic net regularization would improve the estimation of risk models for predicting absolute risk difference, as compared to a traditional backwards variable selection approach. Methods and findings Cox models were derived from SPRINT trial data and validated on ACCORD-BP trial data to estimate risk of CVD events and serious adverse events; the models included terms for intensive BP treatment and heterogeneous response to intensive treatment. The Cox models were then used to estimate the absolute reduction in probability of CVD events (benefit) and absolute increase in probability of serious adverse events (harm) for each individual from intensive treatment. We compared the method of elastic net regularization, which uses repeated internal cross-validation to select variables and estimate coefficients in the presence of collinearity, to a traditional backwards variable selection approach. Data from 9,069 SPRINT participants with complete data on covariates were utilized for model development, and data from 4,498 ACCORD-BP participants with complete data were utilized for model validation. Participants were exposed to intensive (goal systolic pressure < 120 mm Hg) versus standard (<140 mm Hg) treatment. Two composite primary outcome measures were evaluated: (i) CVD events/deaths (myocardial infarction, acute coronary syndrome, stroke, congestive heart failure, or CVD death), and (ii) serious adverse events (hypotension, syncope, electrolyte abnormalities, bradycardia, or acute kidney injury/failure). The model for CVD chosen through elastic net regularization included interaction terms suggesting that older age, black race, higher diastolic BP, and higher lipids were associated with greater CVD risk reduction benefits from intensive treatment, while current smoking was associated with fewer benefits. The model for serious adverse events chosen through elastic net regularization suggested that male sex, current smoking, statin use, elevated creatinine, and higher lipids were associated with greater risk of serious adverse events from intensive treatment. SPRINT participants in the highest predicted benefit subgroup had a number needed to treat (NNT) of 24 to prevent 1 CVD event/death over 5 years (absolute risk reduction [ARR] = 0.042, 95% CI: 0.018, 0.066; P = 0.001), those in the middle predicted benefit subgroup had a NNT of 76 (ARR = 0.013, 95% CI: −0.0001, 0.026; P = 0.053), and those in the lowest subgroup had no significant risk reduction (ARR = 0.006, 95% CI: −0.007, 0.018; P = 0.71). Those in the highest predicted harm subgroup had a number needed to harm (NNH) of 27 to induce 1 serious adverse event (absolute risk increase [ARI] = 0.038, 95% CI: 0.014, 0.061; P = 0.002), those in the middle predicted harm subgroup had a NNH of 41 (ARI = 0.025, 95% CI: 0.012, 0.038; P < 0.001), and those in the lowest subgroup had no significant risk increase (ARI = −0.007, 95% CI: −0.043, 0.030; P = 0.72). In ACCORD-BP, participants in the highest subgroup of predicted benefit had significant absolute CVD risk reduction, but the overall ACCORD-BP participant sample was skewed towards participants with less predicted benefit and more predicted risk than in SPRINT. The models chosen through traditional backwards selection had similar ability to identify absolute risk difference for CVD as the elastic net models, but poorer ability to correctly identify absolute risk difference for serious adverse events. A key limitation of the analysis is the limited sample size of the ACCORD-BP trial, which expanded confidence intervals for ARI among persons with type 2 diabetes. Additionally, it is not possible to mechanistically explain the physiological relationships explaining the heterogeneous treatment effects captured by the models, since the study was an observational secondary data analysis. Conclusions We found that predictive models could help identify subgroups of participants in both SPRINT and ACCORD-BP who had lower versus higher ARRs in CVD events/deaths with intensive BP treatment, and participants who had lower versus higher ARIs in serious adverse events. PMID:29040268

The effect of household poverty on tuberculosis.

PubMed

Siroka, A; Law, I; Macinko, J; Floyd, K; Banda, R P; Hoa, N B; Tsolmon, B; Chanda-Kapata, P; Gasana, M; Lwinn, T; Senkoro, M; Tupasi, T; Ponce, N A

2016-12-01

pSETTING: Households in Malawi, Mongolia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Rwanda, Tanzania, Viet Nam and Zambia.OBJECTIVE To assess the relationship between household socio-economic level, both relative and absolute, and individual tuberculosis (TB) disease. We analysed national TB prevalence surveys from eight countries individually and in pooled multicountry models. Socio-economic level (SEL) was measured in terms of both relative household position and absolute wealth. The outcome of interest was whether or not an individual had TB disease. Logistic regression models were used to control for putative risk factors for TB disease such as age, sex and previous treatment history. Overall, a strong and consistent association between household SEL and individual TB disease was not found. Significant results were found in four individual country models, with the lowest socio-economic quintile being associated with higher TB risk in Mongolia, Myanmar, Tanzania and Viet Nam. TB prevalence surveys are designed to assess prevalence of disease and, due to the small numbers of cases usually detected, may not be the most efficient means of investigating TB risk factors. Different designs are needed, including measuring the SEL of individuals in nested case-control studies within TB prevalence surveys or among TB patients seeking treatment in health care facilities.

Different Context but Similar Cognitive Structures: Older Adults in Rural Bangladesh.

PubMed

Sternäng, Ola; Lövdén, Martin; Kabir, Zarina N; Hamadani, Jena D; Wahlin, Åke

2016-06-01

Most research in cognitive aging is based on literate participants from high-income and Western populations. The extent to which findings generalize to low-income and illiterate populations is unknown. The main aim was to examine the structure of between-person differences in cognitive functions among elderly from rural Bangladesh. We used data from the Poverty and Health in Aging (PHA) project in Bangladesh. The participants (n = 452) were in the age range 60-92 years. Structural equation modeling was used to estimate the fit of a five-factor model (episodic recall, episodic recognition, verbal fluency, semantic knowledge, processing speed) and to examine whether the model generalized across age, sex, and literacy. This study demonstrates that an established model of cognition is valid also among older persons from rural Bangladesh. The model demonstrated strong (or scalar) invariance for age, and partial strong invariance for sex and literacy. Semantic knowledge and processing speed showed weak (or metric) sex invariance, and semantic knowledge demonstrated also sensitivity to illiteracy. In general, women performed poorer on all abilities. The structure of individual cognitive differences established in Western populations also fits a population in rural Bangladesh well. This is an important prerequisite for comparisons of cognitive functioning (e.g., declarative memory) across cultures. It is also worth noting that absolute sex differences in cognitive performance among rural elderly in Bangladesh differ from those usually found in Western samples.

The Hawaii-Emperor Bend: Clearly a Record of Pacific Plate Motion Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wessel, P.; Harada, Y.; Kroenke, L. W.; Sterling, A.

2003-12-01

As most introductory textbooks will point out, the conventional explanation for the ˜120° change in the trends of the Hawaiian and Emperor chains is a ˜60° change in plate motion over a fixed plume in the mantle. Recently, however, new paleomagnetic and radiometric age data from the Emperor Seamounts have led some scientists to reject the conventional view of the origin of the Hawaii-Emperor bend in favor of a mobile plume. Yet, at the brink of being explained away as the mere consequence of a drifting plume, the fixed hotspot hypothesis now gains support from newly reported radiometric dates of rock samples from seamounts at the bend which reveal an age much older than expected. Unlike the previous younger age ( ˜43 Ma), the older age ( ˜47 Ma) allows the bend to be directly correlated with a period of pronounced, global tectonic reorganizations around Chron 21. Here we present a new Pacific absolute plate motion model, derived from 15 hotspot chains, which does not require hotspot drift in order to satisfy geometric and chronological constraints. By considering this absolute plate motion model with available Pacific paleomagnetic poles we find support for the notion that the spin axis was closer to the Hawaiian hotspot during the formation of the Emperor chain, and this interpretation (polar wander, not hotspot drift) also explains the paleomagnetic latitudes from the Emperor seamounts as well as the lack of coral reefs materials in the drill holes north of Koko Guyot. However, this interpretation is not unique, and drift cannot be summarily ruled out. Yet, if Pacific plumes are drifting then they appear to be moving in unison. Careful examination of the Pacific seafloor reveals additional Pacific trails with bends that appear to be contemporaneous with the Hawaii-Emperor Bend, although conclusive radiometric age data are lacking. Our plate motion model predicts hotspot tracks that fit these bends. Considering all these lines of evidence the fixed hotspot hypothesis is granted a new lease on life.

Pulling Marbles from a Bag: Deducing the Regional Impact History of the SPA Basin from Impact-Melt Rocks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cohen, Barbara A.; Coker, Robert F.

2010-01-01

The South Pole Aitken (SPA) basin is the stratigraphically oldest identifiable lunar basin and is therefore one of the most important targets for absolute age-dating to help understand whether ancient lunar bombardment history smoothly declined or was punctuated by a cataclysm. A feasible near-term approach to this problem is to robotically collect a sample from near the center of the basin, where vertical and lateral mixing provided by post-basin impacts ensures that such a sample will be composed of small rock fragments from SPA itself, from local impact craters, and from faraway giant basins. The range of ages, intermediate spikes in the age distribution, and the oldest ages are all part of the definition of the absolute age and impact history recorded within the SPA basin.

40 CFR Appendix I to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis), Referenced to the Absolute GWP for the Adopted Carbon...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 17 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis), Referenced to the Absolute GWP for the Adopted Carbon Cycle Model CO2 Decay Response and Future CO2... Absolute GWP for the Adopted Carbon Cycle Model CO2 Decay Response and Future CO2 Atmospheric...

Novel diffusion tensor imaging technique reveals developmental streamline volume changes in the corticospinal tract associated with leg motor control

PubMed Central

Kamson, David O.; Juhász, Csaba; Chugani, Harry T.; Jeong, Jeong-Won

2014-01-01

Background Diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) has expanded our knowledge of corticospinal tract (CST) anatomy and development. However, previous developmental DTI studies assessed the CST as a whole, overlooking potential differences in development of its components related to control of the upper and lower extremities. The present cross-sectional study investigated age-related changes, side and gender differences in streamline volume of the leg- and hand-related segments of the CST in children. Subjects and methods DTI data of 31 children (1–14years; mean age: 6±4years; 17 girls) with normal conventional MRI were analyzed. Leg- and hand-related CST streamline volumes were quantified separately, using a recently validated novel tractography approach. CST streamline volumes on both sides were compared between genders and correlated with age. Results Higher absolute streamline volumes were found in the left leg-related CST compared to the right (p=0.001) without a gender effect (p=0.4), whereas no differences were found in the absolute hand-related CST volumes (p>0.4). CST leg-related streamline volumes, normalized to hemispheric white matter volumes, declined with age in the right hemisphere only (R=−.51; p=0.004). Absolute leg-related CST streamline volumes showed similar, but slightly weaker correlations. Hand-related absolute or normalized CST streamline volumes showed no age-related variations on either side. Conclusion These results suggest differential development of CST segments controlling hand vs. leg movements. Asymmetric volume changes in the lower limb motor pathway may be secondary to gradually strengthening left hemispheric dominance and is consistent with previous data suggesting that footedness is a better predictor of hemispheric lateralization than handedness. PMID:25027193

Novel diffusion tensor imaging technique reveals developmental streamline volume changes in the corticospinal tract associated with leg motor control.

PubMed

Kamson, David O; Juhász, Csaba; Chugani, Harry T; Jeong, Jeong-Won

2015-04-01

Diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) has expanded our knowledge of corticospinal tract (CST) anatomy and development. However, previous developmental DTI studies assessed the CST as a whole, overlooking potential differences in development of its components related to control of the upper and lower extremities. The present cross-sectional study investigated age-related changes, side and gender differences in streamline volume of the leg- and hand-related segments of the CST in children. DTI data of 31 children (1-14 years; mean age: 6±4 years; 17 girls) with normal conventional MRI were analyzed. Leg- and hand-related CST streamline volumes were quantified separately, using a recently validated novel tractography approach. CST streamline volumes on both sides were compared between genders and correlated with age. Higher absolute streamline volumes were found in the left leg-related CST compared to the right (p=0.001) without a gender effect (p=0.4), whereas no differences were found in the absolute hand-related CST volumes (p>0.4). CST leg-related streamline volumes, normalized to hemispheric white matter volumes, declined with age in the right hemisphere only (R=-.51; p=0.004). Absolute leg-related CST streamline volumes showed similar, but slightly weaker correlations. Hand-related absolute or normalized CST streamline volumes showed no age-related variations on either side. These results suggest differential development of CST segments controlling hand vs. leg movements. Asymmetric volume changes in the lower limb motor pathway may be secondary to gradually strengthening left hemispheric dominance and is consistent with previous data suggesting that footedness is a better predictor of hemispheric lateralization than handedness. Copyright © 2014 The Japanese Society of Child Neurology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Improved Learning in Aging: Implications for Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kramer, Deirdre A.

Three types of lay theories about the social world form a developmental sequence. Earlier developing theories are reorganized at the next level into a more inclusive, encompassing view of the world in order to make better predictions. The absolute thinker sees the world as fixed and unchanging, reasons with absolute rules, and has a narrow world…

Trends of relative and absolute socioeconomic equity in access to coronary revascularisations in 1995-2010 in Finland: a register study.

PubMed

Lumme, Sonja; Manderbacka, Kristiina; Keskimäki, Ilmo

2017-02-20

Resources for coronary revascularisations have increased substantially since the early 1990s in Finland. At the same time, ischaemic heart disease (IHD) mortality has decreased markedly. This study aims to examine how these changes have influenced trends in absolute and relative differences between socioeconomic groups in revascularisations and age group differences in them using IHD mortality as a proxy for need. Hospital Discharge Register data on revascularisations among Finns aged 45-84 in 1995-2010 were individually linked to population registers to obtain socio-demographic data. We measured absolute and relative income group differences in revascularisation and IHD mortality with slope index of inequality (SII) and concentration index (C), and relative equity taking need for care into account with horizontal inequity index (HII). The supply of procedures doubled during the years. Socioeconomic distribution of revascularisations was in absolute and relative terms equal in 1995 (Men: SII = -12, C = -0.00; Women, SII = -30, C = -0.03), but differences favouring low-income groups emerged by 2010 (M: SII = -340, C = -0.08; W: SII = -195, C = -0.14). IHD mortality decreased markedly, but absolute and relative differences favouring the better-off existed throughout study years. Absolute differences decreased somewhat (M: SII = -760 in 1995, SII = -681 in 2010; W: SII = -318 in 1995, SII = -211 in 2010), but relative differences increased significantly (M: C = -0.14 in 1995, C = -0.26 in 2010; W: C = -0.15 in 1995, C = -0.25 in 2010). HII was greater than zero in each year indicating inequity favouring the better-off. HII increased from 0.15 to 0.18 among men and from 0.10 to 0.12 among women. We found significant and increasing age group differences in HII. Despite large increase in supply of revascularisations and decrease in IHD mortality, there is still marked socioeconomic inequity in revascularisations in Finland. However, since changes in absolute distributions of both supply and need for coronary care have favoured low-income groups, absolute inequity can be claimed to have decreased although it cannot be quantified numerically.

Probative value of absolute and relative judgments in eyewitness identification.

PubMed

Clark, Steven E; Erickson, Michael A; Breneman, Jesse

2011-10-01

It is well-accepted that eyewitness identification decisions based on relative judgments are less accurate than identification decisions based on absolute judgments. However, the theoretical foundation for this view has not been established. In this study relative and absolute judgments were compared through simulations of the WITNESS model (Clark, Appl Cogn Psychol 17:629-654, 2003) to address the question: Do suspect identifications based on absolute judgments have higher probative value than suspect identifications based on relative judgments? Simulations of the WITNESS model showed a consistent advantage for absolute judgments over relative judgments for suspect-matched lineups. However, simulations of same-foils lineups showed a complex interaction based on the accuracy of memory and the similarity relationships among lineup members.

Healthcare-Related Financial Burden among Families in the U.S.: The Role of Childhood Activity Limitations and Income

PubMed Central

Witt, Whitney P.; Litzelman, Kristin; Mandic, Carmen G.; Wisk, Lauren E.; Hampton, John M.; Creswell, Paul D.; Gottlieb, Carissa A.; Gangnon, Ronald E.

2011-01-01

This study examined the impact of childhood activity limitations on family financial burden in the U.S. We used ten complete panels (1996-2006) of the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) to evaluate the burden of out-of-pocket healthcare expenditures for 17,857 families with children aged 0-17 years. Multivariate generalized linear models were used to examine the relationship between childhood activity limitation status and both absolute and relative financial burden. Families of children with limitations had higher absolute out-of-pocket healthcare expenditures than families of children without limitations ($594.36 higher; p<0.05), and were 54% more likely to experience relative burden (p<0.05). Substantial socioeconomic disparities in financial burden were observed. Policies are needed to enable these families to access appropriate and affordable healthcare services. PMID:21552342

Variance computations for functional of absolute risk estimates.

PubMed

Pfeiffer, R M; Petracci, E

2011-07-01

We present a simple influence function based approach to compute the variances of estimates of absolute risk and functions of absolute risk. We apply this approach to criteria that assess the impact of changes in the risk factor distribution on absolute risk for an individual and at the population level. As an illustration we use an absolute risk prediction model for breast cancer that includes modifiable risk factors in addition to standard breast cancer risk factors. Influence function based variance estimates for absolute risk and the criteria are compared to bootstrap variance estimates.

Variance computations for functional of absolute risk estimates

PubMed Central

Pfeiffer, R.M.; Petracci, E.

2011-01-01

We present a simple influence function based approach to compute the variances of estimates of absolute risk and functions of absolute risk. We apply this approach to criteria that assess the impact of changes in the risk factor distribution on absolute risk for an individual and at the population level. As an illustration we use an absolute risk prediction model for breast cancer that includes modifiable risk factors in addition to standard breast cancer risk factors. Influence function based variance estimates for absolute risk and the criteria are compared to bootstrap variance estimates. PMID:21643476

Prediction of cervical cancer incidence in England, UK, up to 2040, under four scenarios: a modelling study.

PubMed

Castanon, Alejandra; Landy, Rebecca; Pesola, Francesca; Windridge, Peter; Sasieni, Peter

2018-01-01

In the next 25 years, the epidemiology of cervical cancer in England, UK, will change: human papillomavirus (HPV) screening will be the primary test for cervical cancer. Additionally, the proportion of women screened regularly is decreasing and women who received the HPV vaccine are due to attend screening for the first time. Therefore, we aimed to estimate how vaccination against HPV, changes to the screening test, and falling screening coverage will affect cervical cancer incidence in England up to 2040. We did a data modelling study that combined results from population modelling of incidence trends, observable data from the individual level with use of a generalised linear model, and microsimulation of unobservable disease states. We estimated age-specific absolute risks of cervical cancer in the absence of screening (derived from individual level data). We used an age period cohort model to estimate birth cohort effects. We multiplied the absolute risks by the age cohort effects to provide absolute risks of cervical cancer for unscreened women in different birth cohorts. We obtained relative risks (RRs) of cervical cancer by screening history (never screened, regularly screened, or lapsed attender) using data from a population-based case-control study for unvaccinated women, and using a microsimulation model for vaccinated women. RRs of primary HPV screening were relative to cytology. We used the proportion of women in each 5-year age group (25-29 years to 75-79 years) and 5-year period (2016-20 to 2036-40) who have a combination of screening and vaccination history, and weighted to estimate the population incidence. The primary outcome was the number of cases and rates per 100 000 women under four scenarios: no changes to current screening coverage or vaccine uptake and HPV primary testing from 2019 (status quo), changing the year in which HPV primary testing is introduced, introduction of the nine-valent vaccine, and changes to cervical screening coverage. The status quo scenario estimated that the peak age of cancer diagnosis will shift from the ages of 25-29 years in 2011-15 to 55-59 years in 2036-40. Unvaccinated women born between 1975 and 1990 were predicted to have a relatively high risk of cervical cancer throughout their lives. Introduction of primary HPV screening from 2019 could reduce age-standardised rates of cervical cancer at ages 25-64 years by 19%, from 15·1 in 2016 to 12·2 per 100 000 women as soon as 2028. Vaccination against HPV types 16 and 18 (HPV 16/18) could see cervical cancer rates in women aged 25-29 years decrease by 55% (from 20·9 in 2011-15 to 9·5 per 100 000 women by 2036-40), and introduction of nine-valent vaccination from 2019 compared with continuing vaccination against HPV 16/18 will reduce rates by a further 36% (from 9·5 to 6·1 per 100 000 women) by 2036-40. Women born before 1991 will not benefit directly from vaccination; therefore, despite vaccination and primary HPV screening with current screening coverage, European age-standardised rates of cervical cancer at ages 25-79 years will decrease by only 10% (from 12·8 in 2011-15 to 11·5 per 100 000 women in 2036-40). If screening coverage fell to 50%, European age-standardised rates could increase by 27% (from 12·8 to 16·3 per 100 000 by 2036-40). Going forward, focus should be placed on scenarios that offer less intensive screening for vaccinated women and more on increasing coverage and incorporation of new technologies to enhance current cervical screening among unvaccinated women. Jo's Cervical Cancer Trust and Cancer Research UK. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Effects of resistance or aerobic exercise training on total and regional body composition in sedentary overweight middle-aged adults.

PubMed

Donges, Cheyne E; Duffield, Rob

2012-06-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of 10 weeks of aerobic endurance training (AET), resistance exercise training (RET), or a control (CON) condition on absolute and relative fat mass (FM) or fat-free mass (FFM) in the total body (TB) and regions of interest (ROIs) of sedentary overweight middle-aged males and females. Following prescreening, 102 subjects underwent anthropometric measurements, dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, and strength and aerobic exercise testing. Randomized subjects (male RET, n = 16; female RET, n = 19; male AET, n = 16; and female AET, n = 25) completed supervised and periodized exercise programs (AET, 30-50 min cycling at 70%-75% maximal heart rate; RET, 2-4 sets × 8-10 repetitions of 5-7 exercises at 70%-75% 1 repetition maximum) or a nonexercising control condition (male CON, n = 13 and female CON, n = 13). Changes in absolute and relative TB-FM and TB-FFM and ROI-FM and ROI-FFM were determined. At baseline, and although matched for age and body mass index, males had greater strength, aerobic fitness, body mass, absolute and relative TB-FFM and ROI-FFM, but reduced absolute and relative TB-FM and ROI-FM, compared with females (p < 0.05). After training, both female exercise groups showed equivalent or greater relative improvements in strength and aerobic fitness than did the male exercise groups (p < 0.05); however, the male exercise groups increased TB-FFM and reduced TB-FM more than did the female exercise groups (p < 0.05). Male AET altered absolute FM more than male RET altered absolute FFM, thus resulting in a greater enhancement of relative FFM. Despite equivalent or greater responses to RET or AET by female subjects, the corresponding respective increases in FFM or reductions in FM were lower than those in males, indicating that a biased dose-response relationship exists between sexes following 10 weeks of exercise training.

Reconstructing the Geomagnetic Field in West Africa: First Absolute Intensity Results from Burkina Faso

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kapper, Lisa; Donadini, Fabio; Serneels, Vincent; Tema, Evdokia; Goguitchaichvili, Avto; Julio Morales, Juan

2017-03-01

We present absolute geomagnetic intensities from iron smelting furnaces discovered at the metallurgical site of Korsimoro, Burkina Faso. Up to now, archaeologists recognized four different types of furnaces based on different construction methods, which were related to four subsequent time periods. Additionally, radiocarbon ages obtained from charcoal confine the studied furnaces to ages ranging from 700-1700 AD, in good agreement with the archaeologically determined time periods for each type of furnace. Archaeointensity results reveal three main groups of Arai diagrams. The first two groups contain specimens with either linear Arai diagrams, or slightly curved diagrams or two phases of magnetization. The third group encompasses specimens with strong zigzag or curvature in their Arai diagrams. Specimens of the first two groups were accepted after applying selection criteria to guarantee the high quality of the results. Our data compared to palaeosecular variation curves show a similar decreasing trend between 900-1500 AD. However, they reveal larger amplitudes at around 800 AD and 1650 AD than the reference curves and geomagnetic field models. Furthermore, they agree well with archaeomagnetic data from Mali and Senegal around 800 AD and with volcanic data around 1700 AD.

Reconstructing the Geomagnetic Field in West Africa: First Absolute Intensity Results from Burkina Faso

PubMed Central

Kapper, Lisa; Donadini, Fabio; Serneels, Vincent; Tema, Evdokia; Goguitchaichvili, Avto; Julio Morales, Juan

2017-01-01

We present absolute geomagnetic intensities from iron smelting furnaces discovered at the metallurgical site of Korsimoro, Burkina Faso. Up to now, archaeologists recognized four different types of furnaces based on different construction methods, which were related to four subsequent time periods. Additionally, radiocarbon ages obtained from charcoal confine the studied furnaces to ages ranging from 700–1700 AD, in good agreement with the archaeologically determined time periods for each type of furnace. Archaeointensity results reveal three main groups of Arai diagrams. The first two groups contain specimens with either linear Arai diagrams, or slightly curved diagrams or two phases of magnetization. The third group encompasses specimens with strong zigzag or curvature in their Arai diagrams. Specimens of the first two groups were accepted after applying selection criteria to guarantee the high quality of the results. Our data compared to palaeosecular variation curves show a similar decreasing trend between 900–1500 AD. However, they reveal larger amplitudes at around 800 AD and 1650 AD than the reference curves and geomagnetic field models. Furthermore, they agree well with archaeomagnetic data from Mali and Senegal around 800 AD and with volcanic data around 1700 AD. PMID:28350006

Cigarette advertising in magazines: the tobacco industry response to the Master Settlement Agreement and to public pressure

PubMed Central

Hamilton, W; Turner-Bowker, D; Celebucki, C; Connolly, G

2002-01-01

Design: Expenditures on cigarette advertisements in national magazines in the USA are compared for three periods: January to November 1998, December 1998 to June 2000, and July 2000 to November 2001. Magazines in which at least 15% of readers are youth under age 18 are focused upon. Regression models test for the significance of period differences after controlling for seasonal and long term patterns. Data sources: Commercially maintained data on advertising in US magazines and on magazine readership by age. Key measures: Monthly cigarette ad expenditures in magazines with 15%+ youth readership, and monthly proportion of ad expenditures in 15%+ youth magazines. Results: Cigarette advertising expenditures in magazines with 15%+ youth readership increased dramatically after MSA implementation and fell dramatically after public pressure. The percentage allocation of expenditures to 15%+ magazines fell significantly in both periods. Results differ somewhat by company. Conclusions: The tobacco industry response to the MSA was at best modest, reducing proportional allocations of advertising to youth magazines but increasing the absolute amount of such advertising. The value of public pressure was seen in substantial reductions in both absolute and proportional spending on youth magazines, although not by all companies. PMID:12034983

I-131 Dose Response for Incident Thyroid Cancers in Ukraine Related to the Chornobyl Accident

PubMed Central

Tronko, Mykola D.; Hatch, Maureen; Bogdanova, Tetyana I.; Oliynik, Valery A.; Lubin, Jay H.; Zablotska, Lydia B.; Tereschenko, Valery P.; McConnell, Robert J.; Zamotaeva, Galina A.; O’Kane, Patrick; Bouville, Andre C.; Chaykovskaya, Ludmila V.; Greenebaum, Ellen; Paster, Ihor P.; Shpak, Victor M.; Ron, Elaine

2011-01-01

Background: Current knowledge about Chornobyl-related thyroid cancer risks comes from ecological studies based on grouped doses, case–control studies, and studies of prevalent cancers. Objective: To address this limitation, we evaluated the dose–response relationship for incident thyroid cancers using measurement-based individual iodine-131 (I-131) thyroid dose estimates in a prospective analytic cohort study. Methods: The cohort consists of individuals < 18 years of age on 26 April 1986 who resided in three contaminated oblasts (states) of Ukraine and underwent up to four thyroid screening examinations between 1998 and 2007 (n = 12,514). Thyroid doses of I-131 were estimated based on individual radioactivity measurements taken within 2 months after the accident, environmental transport models, and interview data. Excess radiation risks were estimated using Poisson regression models. Results: Sixty-five incident thyroid cancers were diagnosed during the second through fourth screenings and 73,004 person-years (PY) of observation. The dose–response relationship was consistent with linearity on relative and absolute scales, although the excess relative risk (ERR) model described data better than did the excess absolute risk (EAR) model. The ERR per gray was 1.91 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.43–6.34], and the EAR per 104 PY/Gy was 2.21 (95% CI, 0.04–5.78). The ERR per gray varied significantly by oblast of residence but not by time since exposure, use of iodine prophylaxis, iodine status, sex, age, or tumor size. Conclusions: I-131–related thyroid cancer risks persisted for two decades after exposure, with no evidence of decrease during the observation period. The radiation risks, although smaller, are compatible with those of retrospective and ecological post-Chornobyl studies. PMID:21406336

Constraints from Seamounts on Pacific Plate or Plume Motion Prior to 80 Ma.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konter, J. G.; Koppers, A. A. P.; Jackson, M. G.; Finlayson, V.; Konrad, K.

2015-12-01

The Hawaii-Emperor and Louisville hotspot tracks have long dominated the data set constraining absolute plate motion models. However, prior to ~80 Ma, multiple shorter, discontinuous hotspot trails and oceanic plateaus have been used to constrain absolute plate motion. Based on this earlier work, a clear Hawaii-Emperor style bend seems apparent around 100 Ma in the West Pacific Seamount Province (WPSP). More importantly, the ongoing debate on a plate versus plume motion origin for the Hawaii-Emperor Bend is applicable here, as the ~100 Ma bend may correspond to a global plate reorganization (Matthews et al., EPSL, 2012). Data for a comparison of bends comes from three groups with similar geographic patterns: 1) Mid-Pacific Mountains, Line Islands; 2) Shatsky Rise, Hess Rise, Musician and Wentworth Seamounts; and 3) Wake Seamounts, Marshall Islands, Magellan Seamounts. Both groups 1 and 2 feature a large igneous province (LIP) at their oldest end: Shatsky Rise and the Mid-Pacific Mountains. According to plate reconstructions these LIPs were constructed near all-ridge triple junctions, thus potential plume-ridge interactions need to be clarified before these LIPs can be used to define an absolute mantle reference frame. In contrast, the volcanoes of the third group (Wake, Marshall, Magellan) did erupt truly intra-plate and we therefore argue that this group provides a constraint on plate motion beyond 80 Ma that is independent of plume-ridge interactions. Since the volcanoes in this group are part of the WPSP, which is densely populated with seamounts, a combination of 40Ar/39Ar ages and Sr-Nd-Pb-Hf isotopes is needed to distinguish different hotspot tracks in this region. Backtracking each volcano through its age to its original eruptive location and using compositional color-coding, reveals groupings and patterns that vary by plate motion model, while the temporal patterns of backtracked locations inform us about potential plume motions.

U-Th-Pb systematics in three Apollo 14 basalts and the problem of initial Pb in lunar rocks.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tera, F.; Wasserburg, G. J.

1972-01-01

The isotopic composition of Pb and the elemental concentration of U, Th and Pb were measured on 'total' rock samples 14053, 14073 and 14310 and on mineral separates of 14310 and 14053. These are the first Pb-U isochrons obtained for lunar basalts and indicate a reasonable solution to the previous discrepancy between the different methods of 'absolute' age determination. The resulting U-Pb isochron ages are compatible with the Rb-Sr and K-Ar ages on the same rocks. However, it is not possible to establish a precise time of 'crystallization' from the Pb-U data because of the small angle of intersection between the linear arrays and the concordia curve. These data show that total rock model ages do not in general yield crystallization ages. The data on 14310 and 14053 show that these rocks were formed containing a highly radiogenic initial lead which accounts for the excessively high total rock model ages by the U-Th-Pb method. The data prove that at the time of extrusion of some basalts, unsupported lead with extremely high Pb-207/Pb-206 ratios was added to the lunar surface.

Volcanic synchronisation of the EPICA-DC and TALDICE ice cores for the last 42 kyr BP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Severi, M.; Udisti, R.; Becagli, S.; Stenni, B.; Traversi, R.

2012-04-01

An age scale synchronisation between the Talos Dome and the EPICA Dome C ice cores was carried on through the identification of several common volcanic signatures for the last 42 kyr. Using this tight stratigraphic link we transferred the EDC age scale to the Talos Dome ice core producing a new age scale for the last 12 kyr. We estimated the discrepancies between the modeled TALDICE-1 age scale and the new one during the studied period, by evaluating the ratio R of the apparent duration of temporal intervals between pairs of isochrones. Except for a very few cases, R ranges between 0.8 and 1.2 corresponding to an uncertainty of up to 20% in the estimate of the time duration in at least one of the two ice cores. At this stage our approach does not allow us unequivocally to find out which of the models is affected by errors, but, taking into account only the historically known volcanic events, we found that discrepancies up to 200 years appears in the last two millennia in the TALDICE-1 model, while our new age scale shows a much better agreement with the volcanic absolute horizons. Thus, we propose for the Talos Dome ice core a new age scale (covering the whole Holocene) obtained by a direct transfer, via our stratigraphic link, from the EDC modelled age scale by Lemieux-Dudon et al. (2010).

Do Local Social Hierarchies Matter for Mental Health? A Study of Neighborhood Social Status and Depressive Symptoms in Older Adults.

PubMed

Kelley-Moore, Jessica A; Cagney, Kathleen A; Skarupski, Kimberly A; Everson-Rose, Susan A; Mendes de Leon, Carlos F

2016-03-01

Despite a well-established association between relative social position and health, stratification at smaller levels of social organization has received scant attention. Neighborhood is a localized context that has increasing relevance for adults as they age, thus one's relative position within this type of mesolevel group may have an effect on mental health, independent of absolute level of social and economic resources. We examine the relationship between an older adult's relative rank within their neighborhoods on two criteria and depressive symptoms. Using data from the Chicago Health and Aging Project, neighborhood relative social position was ascertained for two social domains: income and social reputation (number of neighbors one knows well enough to visit). Using multilevel models, we estimated the effect of relative position within the neighborhood on depressive symptoms, net of absolute level for each domain and average neighborhood level. Higher neighborhood relative rankings on both income and visiting neighbors were associated with fewer depressive symptoms. Although both were modest in effect, the gradient in depressive symptoms was three times steeper for the relative rank of visiting neighbors than for income. Men had steeper gradients than women in both domains, but no race differences were observed. These findings suggest that an older adult's relative position in a local social hierarchy is associated with his/her mental health, net of absolute position. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Determinants of body composition in preterm infants at the time of hospital discharge.

PubMed

Simon, Laure; Frondas-Chauty, Anne; Senterre, Thibault; Flamant, Cyril; Darmaun, Dominique; Rozé, Jean-Christophe

2014-07-01

Preterm infants have a higher fat mass (FM) percentage and a lower fat-free mass (FFM) than do term infants at the time of hospital discharge. We determined perinatal and nutritional factors that affect the body composition of preterm infants at discharge. A total of 141 preterm infants born at <35 wk of gestation and admitted to Nantes University Hospital Neonatology Unit over a period of 2 y were enrolled. Nutritional intake and growth were monitored during hospitalization. Body composition was assessed by using air-displacement plethysmography at discharge. FFM was compared with reference data in term infants according to sex and gestational age. Linear regression produced an excellent model to predict absolute FFM from perinatal characteristics and nutrition (R(2) = 0.82) but not the FM percentage (R(2) = 0.24). Gestational and postnatal ages played an equal role in absolute FFM accretion, as did the initial growth (between birth and day 5) and growth between day 5 and discharge. Antenatal corticosteroid treatment slightly reduced FFM accretion. As concerns nutritional intake, a higher protein:energy ratio at days 10 and 21 was significantly associated with decreased risk of an FFM deficit when preterm infants were compared with reference values for term infants. Boys had higher risk of an FFM deficit than did girls. The initial growth and quality of nutrition were significantly associated with absolute FFM accretion during a hospital stay in preterm infants. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01450436. © 2014 American Society for Nutrition.

Investigating maternal risk factors as potential targets of intervention to reduce socioeconomic inequality in small for gestational age: a population-based study.

PubMed

Hayward, Irene; Malcoe, Lorraine Halinka; Cleathero, Lesley A; Janssen, Patricia A; Lanphear, Bruce P; Hayes, Michael V; Mattman, Andre; Pampalon, Robert; Venners, Scott A

2012-06-13

The major aim of this study was to investigate whether maternal risk factors associated with socioeconomic status and small for gestational age (SGA) might be viable targets of interventions to reduce differential risk of SGA by socioeconomic status (socioeconomic SGA inequality) in the metropolitan area of Vancouver, Canada. This study included 59,039 live, singleton births in the Vancouver Census Metropolitan Area (Vancouver) from January 1, 2006 to September 17, 2009. To identify an indicator of socioeconomic SGA inequality, we used hierarchical logistic regression to model SGA by area-level variables from the Canadian census. We then modelled SGA by area-level average income plus established maternal risk factors for SGA and calculated population attributable SGA risk percentages (PAR%) for each variable. Associations of maternal risk factors for SGA with average income were investigated to identify those that might contribute to SGA inequality. Finally, we estimated crude reductions in the percentage and absolute differences in SGA risks between highest and lowest average income quintiles that would result if interventions on maternal risk factors successfully equalized them across income levels or eliminated them altogether. Average income produced the most linear and statistically significant indicator of socioeconomic SGA inequality with 8.9% prevalence of SGA in the lowest income quintile compared to 5.6% in the highest. The adjusted PAR% of SGA for variables were: bottom four quintiles of height (51%), first birth (32%), bottom four quintiles of average income (14%), oligohydramnios (7%), underweight or hypertension, (6% each), smoking (3%) and placental disorder (1%). Shorter height, underweight and smoking during pregnancy had higher prevalence in lower income groups. Crude models assuming equalization of risk factors across income levels or elimination altogether indicated little potential change in relative socioeconomic SGA inequality and reduction in absolute SGA inequality for shorter height only. Our findings regarding maternal height may indicate trans-generational aetiology for socioeconomic SGA inequalities and/or that adult height influences social mobility. Conditions affecting foetal and childhood growth might be viable targets to reduce absolute socioeconomic SGA inequality in future generations, but more research is needed to determine whether such an approach is appropriate.

Performance of the Cockcroft-Gault, MDRD, and New CKD-EPI Formulas in Relation to GFR, Age, and Body Size

PubMed Central

Grootendorst, Diana Carina; Verduijn, Marion; Elliott, Elise Grace; Dekker, Friedo Wilhelm; Krediet, Raymond Theodorus

2010-01-01

Background and objectives: We compared the estimations of Cockcroft-Gault, Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD), and Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equations to a gold standard GFR measurement using 125I-iothalamate, within strata of GFR, gender, age, body weight, and body mass index (BMI). Design, setting, participants, & measurements: For people who previously underwent a GFR measurement, bias, precision, and accuracies between measured and estimated kidney functions were calculated within strata of the variables. The relation between the absolute bias and the variables was tested with linear regression analysis. Results: Overall (n = 271, 44% male, mean measured GFR 72.6 ml/min per 1.73 m2 [SD 30.4 ml/min per 1.73 m2]), mean bias was smallest for MDRD (P < 0.01). CKD-EPI had highest accuracy (P < 0.01 compared with Cockcroft-Gault), which did not differ from MDRD (P = 0.14). The absolute bias of all formulas was related to age. For MDRD and CKD-EPI, absolute bias was also related to the GFR; for Cockcroft-Gault, it was related to body weight and BMI as well. In all extreme subgroups, MDRD and CKD-EPI provided highest accuracies. Conclusions: The absolute bias of all formulas is influenced by age; CKD-EPI and MDRD are also influenced by GFR. Cockcroft-Gault is additionally influenced by body weight and BMI. In general, CKD-EPI gives the best estimation of GFR, although its accuracy is close to that of the MDRD. PMID:20299365

Changes in Circulating B Cell Subsets Associated with Aging and Acute SIV Infection in Rhesus Macaques.

PubMed

Chang, W L William; Gonzalez, Denise F; Kieu, Hung T; Castillo, Luis D; Messaoudi, Ilhem; Shen, Xiaoying; Tomaras, Georgia D; Shacklett, Barbara L; Barry, Peter A; Sparger, Ellen E

2017-01-01

Aging and certain viral infections can negatively impact humoral responses in humans. To further develop the nonhuman primate (NHP) model for investigating B cell dynamics in human aging and infectious disease, a flow cytometric panel was developed to characterize circulating rhesus B cell subsets. Significant differences between human and macaque B cells included the proportions of cells within IgD+ and switched memory populations and a prominent CD21-CD27+ unswitched memory population detected only in macaques. We then utilized the expanded panel to analyze B cell alterations associated with aging and acute simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) infection in the NHP model. In the aging study, distinct patterns of B cell subset frequencies were observed for macaques aged one to five years compared to those between ages 5 and 30 years. In the SIV infection study, B cell frequencies and absolute number were dramatically reduced following acute infection, but recovered within four weeks of infection. Thereafter, the frequencies of activated memory B cells progressively increased; these were significantly correlated with the magnitude of SIV-specific IgG responses, and coincided with impaired maturation of anti-SIV antibody avidity, as previously reported for HIV-1 infection. These observations further validate the NHP model for investigation of mechanisms responsible for B cells alterations associated with immunosenescence and infectious disease.

Day 6 blastocyst is associated with increased birth weight in full-term singleton newborns after frozen-thawed transfer.

PubMed

Cai, Jiali; Liu, Lanlan; Xu, Yingpei; Liu, Zhenfang; Jiang, Xiaoming; Li, Ping; Sha, Aiguo; Ren, Jianzhi

2018-06-13

The purpose of the study is to compare the newborns weight in singleton term birth following transfer of thawed blastocysts-frozen on either day 5 or day 6 after in vitro fertilization. The retrospective study included 1444 frozen-thawed blastocyst transfer (FBT) cycles resulting in live singleton births between Jan 2013 and Dec 2016. The main outcomes measured were absolute birth weight, z-score adjusted for gestational age and gender, and incidence of large-for-gestational-age (LGA) newborns. Generalized linear model (GLM) and logistic regression were used in multivariate analyses. Both the absolute birth weight (3416.49 ± 404.74 vs 3349.22 ± 416.17) and the z-score (0.6 ± 0.93 vs 0.41 ± 0.93) were significantly higher on day 6 FBT in comparison with day 5 FBT. The incidence of LGA newborns was also increased on day 6 FBT (22.8 vs 14.7%, P = 0.006). Adjusted for maternal age, BMI, PCOS diagnosis, present of vanishing twin, and embryo quality, the odds ratio (95% confidence interval) for LGA on day 6 FBT comparing with day 5 FBT was 1.76 (1.18-2.64). Day 6 FBT is associated with increased birth weight and contributes to the incidence of LGA newborns in FBT.

Have health inequalities changed during childhood in the New Labour generation? Findings from the UK Millennium Cohort Study.

PubMed

Rougeaux, Emeline; Hope, Steven; Law, Catherine; Pearce, Anna

2017-01-11

To examine how population-level socioeconomic health inequalities developed during childhood, for children born at the turn of the 21st century and who grew up with major initiatives to tackle health inequalities (under the New Labour Government). The UK. Singleton children in the Millennium Cohort Study at ages 3 (n=15 381), 5 (n=15 041), 7 (n=13 681) and 11 (n=13 112) years. Relative (prevalence ratios (PR)) and absolute health inequalities (prevalence differences (PD)) were estimated in longitudinal models by socioeconomic circumstances (SEC; using highest maternal academic attainment, ranging from 'no academic qualifications' to 'degree' (baseline)). Three health outcomes were examined: overweight (including obesity), limiting long-standing illness (LLSI), and socio-emotional difficulties (SED). Relative and absolute inequalities in overweight, across the social gradient, emerged by age 5 and increased with age. By age 11, children with mothers who had no academic qualifications were considerably more likely to be overweight as compared with those with degree-educated mothers (PR=1.6 (95% CI 1.4 to 1.8), PD=12.9% (9.1% to 16.8%)). For LLSI, inequalities emerged by age 7 and remained at 11, but only for children whose mothers had no academic qualifications (PR=1.7 (1.3 to 2.3), PD=4.8% (2% to 7.5%)). Inequalities in SED (observed across the social gradient and at all ages) declined between 3 and 11, although remained large at 11 (eg, PR=2.4 (1.9 to 2.9), PD=13.4% (10.2% to 16.7%) comparing children whose mothers had no academic qualifications with those of degree-educated mothers). Although health inequalities have been well documented in cross-sectional and trend data in the UK, it is less clear how they develop during childhood. We found that relative and absolute health inequalities persisted, and in some cases widened, for a cohort of children born at the turn of the century. Further research examining and comparing the pathways through which SECs influence health may further our understanding of how inequalities could be prevented in future generations of children. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Have health inequalities changed during childhood in the New Labour generation? Findings from the UK Millennium Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Rougeaux, Emeline; Hope, Steven; Law, Catherine; Pearce, Anna

2017-01-01

Objectives To examine how population-level socioeconomic health inequalities developed during childhood, for children born at the turn of the 21st century and who grew up with major initiatives to tackle health inequalities (under the New Labour Government). Setting The UK. Participants Singleton children in the Millennium Cohort Study at ages 3 (n=15 381), 5 (n=15 041), 7 (n=13 681) and 11 (n=13 112) years. Primary outcomes Relative (prevalence ratios (PR)) and absolute health inequalities (prevalence differences (PD)) were estimated in longitudinal models by socioeconomic circumstances (SEC; using highest maternal academic attainment, ranging from ‘no academic qualifications’ to ‘degree’ (baseline)). Three health outcomes were examined: overweight (including obesity), limiting long-standing illness (LLSI), and socio-emotional difficulties (SED). Results Relative and absolute inequalities in overweight, across the social gradient, emerged by age 5 and increased with age. By age 11, children with mothers who had no academic qualifications were considerably more likely to be overweight as compared with those with degree-educated mothers (PR=1.6 (95% CI 1.4 to 1.8), PD=12.9% (9.1% to 16.8%)). For LLSI, inequalities emerged by age 7 and remained at 11, but only for children whose mothers had no academic qualifications (PR=1.7 (1.3 to 2.3), PD=4.8% (2% to 7.5%)). Inequalities in SED (observed across the social gradient and at all ages) declined between 3 and 11, although remained large at 11 (eg, PR=2.4 (1.9 to 2.9), PD=13.4% (10.2% to 16.7%) comparing children whose mothers had no academic qualifications with those of degree-educated mothers). Conclusions Although health inequalities have been well documented in cross-sectional and trend data in the UK, it is less clear how they develop during childhood. We found that relative and absolute health inequalities persisted, and in some cases widened, for a cohort of children born at the turn of the century. Further research examining and comparing the pathways through which SECs influence health may further our understanding of how inequalities could be prevented in future generations of children. PMID:28077409

The effects of knee direction, physical activity and age on knee joint position sense.

PubMed

Relph, Nicola; Herrington, Lee

2016-06-01

Previous research has suggested a decline in knee proprioception with age. Furthermore, regular participation in physical activity may improve proprioceptive ability. However, there is no large scale data on uninjured populations to confirm these theories. The aim of this study was to provide normative knee joint position data (JPS) from healthy participants aged 18-82years to evaluate the effects of age, physical activity and knee direction. A sample of 116 participants across five age groups was used. The main outcome measures were knee JPS absolute error scores into flexion and extension, Tegner activity levels and General Practitioner Physical Activity Questionnaire results. Absolute error scores in to knee flexion were 3.6°, 3.9°, 3.5°, 3.7° and 3.1° and knee extension were 2.7°, 2.5°, 2.9°, 3.4° and 3.9° for ages 15-29, 30-44, 45-59, 60-74 and 75 years old respectively. Knee extension and flexion absolute error scores were significantly different when age group data were pooled. There was a significant effect of age and activity level on joint position sense into knee extension. Age and lower Tegner scores were also negatively correlated to joint position sense into knee extension. The results provide some evidence for a decline in knee joint position sense with age. Further, active populations may have heightened static proprioception compared to inactive groups. Normative knee joint position sense data is provided and may be used by practitioners to identify patients with reduced proprioceptive ability. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Socio-economic disparities in the consumption of vegetables, fruit and energy-dense foods: the role of motive priorities.

PubMed

Konttinen, Hanna; Sarlio-Lähteenkorva, Sirpa; Silventoinen, Karri; Männistö, Satu; Haukkala, Ari

2013-05-01

A low socio-economic status (SES) is related to less healthy dietary habits, but the reasons for this remain unclear. We examined whether the absolute or relative importance of various food choice motives contributed to SES disparities in vegetable/fruit and energy-dense food intake. We analysed cross-sectional data from the FINRISK Study 2007 by means of structural equation modelling and used a shortened version of the Food Choice Questionnaire to assess the absolute importance of health, pleasure, convenience, price, familiarity and ethicality motives. We calculated the relative importance of each motive by dividing the participant's rating of it by his/her mean score on all motives. Dietary intake was measured with an FFQ. A population-based survey in Finland. Men (n 1691) and women (n 2059) aged 25-64 years. Higher education and income were related to a greater vegetable/fruit intake (β = 0·12, P < 0·001), while education was associated negatively with the consumption of energy-dense foods (β = -0·09, P < 0·001). Socio-economically disadvantaged individuals considered price and/or familiarity more important in their food choices in both absolute and relative terms. A higher income was related to a greater relative importance of health considerations. Relative motives were more strongly associated with vegetable/fruit and energy-dense food consumption than absolute motives and the relative importance of price, familiarity and health partly mediated the effects of the SES indicators on the consumption of these food items. Individual priorities in food choice motives, rather than the absolute importance of single motives, play a role in producing SES disparities in diet.

National cohort study of absolute risk and age-specific incidence of multiple adverse outcomes between adolescence and early middle age.

PubMed

Mok, Pearl L H; Antonsen, Sussie; Pedersen, Carsten Bøcker; Appleby, Louis; Shaw, Jenny; Webb, Roger T

2015-09-19

Psychiatric illness, substance misuse, suicidality, criminality and premature death represent major public health challenges that afflict a sizeable proportion of young people. However, studies of multiple adverse outcomes in the same cohort at risk are rare. In a national Danish cohort we estimated sex- and age-specific incidence rates and absolute risks of these outcomes between adolescence and early middle age. Using interlinked registers, persons born in Denmark 1966-1996 were followed from their 15(th) until 40(th) birthday or December 2011 (N = 2,070,904). We estimated sex- and age-specific incidence rates of nine adverse outcomes, in three main categories: Premature mortality (all-causes, suicide, accident); Psychiatric morbidity (any mental illness diagnosis, suicide attempt, alcohol or drug misuse disorder); Criminality (violent offending, receiving custodial sentence, driving under influence of alcohol or drugs). Cumulative incidences were also calculated using competing risk survival analyses. For cohort members alive on their 15(th) birthday, the absolute risks of dying by age 40 were 1.99 % for males [95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.95-2.03 %] and 0.85 % for females (95 % CI 0.83-0.88 %). The risks of substance misuse and criminality were also much higher for males, especially younger males, than for females. Specifically, the risk of a first conviction for a violent offence was highest amongst males aged below 20. Females, however, were more likely than males to have a hospital-treated psychiatric disorder. By age 40, 13.25 % of females (95 % CI 13.16-13.33 %) and 9.98 % of males (95 % CI 9.91-10.06 %) had been treated. Women aged below 25 were also more likely than men to first attempt suicide, but this pattern was reversed beyond this age. The greatest gender differentials in incidence rates were in criminality outcomes. This is the first comprehensive assessment of the incidence rates and absolute risks of these multiple adverse outcomes. Approximately 1 in 50 males and 1 in 120 females who are alive on their 15th birthday will die by age 40. By examining the same cohort at risk, we compared risks for multiple outcomes without differential inter-cohort biases. These epidemiological profiles will inform further research into the pathways leading to these adverse events and future preventive strategies.

Human podocyte depletion in association with older age and hypertension.

PubMed

Puelles, Victor G; Cullen-McEwen, Luise A; Taylor, Georgina E; Li, Jinhua; Hughson, Michael D; Kerr, Peter G; Hoy, Wendy E; Bertram, John F

2016-04-01

Podocyte depletion plays a major role in the development and progression of glomerulosclerosis. Many kidney diseases are more common in older age and often coexist with hypertension. We hypothesized that podocyte depletion develops in association with older age and is exacerbated by hypertension. Kidneys from 19 adult Caucasian American males without overt renal disease were collected at autopsy in Mississippi. Demographic data were obtained from medical and autopsy records. Subjects were categorized by age and hypertension as potential independent and additive contributors to podocyte depletion. Design-based stereology was used to estimate individual glomerular volume and total podocyte number per glomerulus, which allowed the calculation of podocyte density (number per volume). Podocyte depletion was defined as a reduction in podocyte number (absolute depletion) or podocyte density (relative depletion). The cortical location of glomeruli (outer or inner cortex) and presence of parietal podocytes were also recorded. Older age was an independent contributor to both absolute and relative podocyte depletion, featuring glomerular hypertrophy, podocyte loss, and thus reduced podocyte density. Hypertension was an independent contributor to relative podocyte depletion by exacerbating glomerular hypertrophy, mostly in glomeruli from the inner cortex. However, hypertension was not associated with podocyte loss. Absolute and relative podocyte depletion were exacerbated by the combination of older age and hypertension. The proportion of glomeruli with parietal podocytes increased with age but not with hypertension alone. These findings demonstrate that older age and hypertension are independent and additive contributors to podocyte depletion in white American men without kidney disease. Copyright © 2016 the American Physiological Society.

Development and validation of a Markov microsimulation model for the economic evaluation of treatments in osteoporosis.

PubMed

Hiligsmann, Mickaël; Ethgen, Olivier; Bruyère, Olivier; Richy, Florent; Gathon, Henry-Jean; Reginster, Jean-Yves

2009-01-01

Markov models are increasingly used in economic evaluations of treatments for osteoporosis. Most of the existing evaluations are cohort-based Markov models missing comprehensive memory management and versatility. In this article, we describe and validate an original Markov microsimulation model to accurately assess the cost-effectiveness of prevention and treatment of osteoporosis. We developed a Markov microsimulation model with a lifetime horizon and a direct health-care cost perspective. The patient history was recorded and was used in calculations of transition probabilities, utilities, and costs. To test the internal consistency of the model, we carried out an example calculation for alendronate therapy. Then, external consistency was investigated by comparing absolute lifetime risk of fracture estimates with epidemiologic data. For women at age 70 years, with a twofold increase in the fracture risk of the average population, the costs per quality-adjusted life-year gained for alendronate therapy versus no treatment were estimated at €9105 and €15,325, respectively, under full and realistic adherence assumptions. All the sensitivity analyses in terms of model parameters and modeling assumptions were coherent with expected conclusions and absolute lifetime risk of fracture estimates were within the range of previous estimates, which confirmed both internal and external consistency of the model. Microsimulation models present some major advantages over cohort-based models, increasing the reliability of the results and being largely compatible with the existing state of the art, evidence-based literature. The developed model appears to be a valid model for use in economic evaluations in osteoporosis.

What automated age estimation of hand and wrist MRI data tells us about skeletal maturation in male adolescents.

PubMed

Urschler, Martin; Grassegger, Sabine; Štern, Darko

2015-01-01

Age estimation of individuals is important in human biology and has various medical and forensic applications. Recent interest in MR-based methods aims to investigate alternatives for established methods involving ionising radiation. Automatic, software-based methods additionally promise improved estimation objectivity. To investigate how informative automatically selected image features are regarding their ability to discriminate age, by exploring a recently proposed software-based age estimation method for MR images of the left hand and wrist. One hundred and two MR datasets of left hand images are used to evaluate age estimation performance, consisting of bone and epiphyseal gap volume localisation, computation of one age regression model per bone mapping image features to age and fusion of individual bone age predictions to a final age estimate. Quantitative results of the software-based method show an age estimation performance with a mean absolute difference of 0.85 years (SD = 0.58 years) to chronological age, as determined by a cross-validation experiment. Qualitatively, it is demonstrated how feature selection works and which image features of skeletal maturation are automatically chosen to model the non-linear regression function. Feasibility of automatic age estimation based on MRI data is shown and selected image features are found to be informative for describing anatomical changes during physical maturation in male adolescents.

Iron deficiency in a tertiary gastroenterology center in Romania: prevalence and significancy.

PubMed

Preda, Carmen Monica; Proca, Doina; Sandra, Irina; Horeanga, Boroka Claudia; Fulger, Larisa Elena; Manuc, Teodora; Bancila, Ion; Balas, Oana Elena; Manuc, Mircea; Diculescu, Mircea; Baicus, Cristian; Tieranu, Cristian; Constantinescu, Ileana

2018-01-01

Introduction: Iron deficiency has been known to cause significant functional impairment, lower quality of life and higher morbidity and mortality. The aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence and significance of iron deficiency in our patients and medical staff. Material and methods: We performed a prospective cross-sectional study: In July 2016, 383 persons were screened for the presence of iron deficiency (ID): 325 patients and 58 people from the medical staff. Transferrin saturation (TSAT), serum ferritin (SF) and complete blood count were performed. Absolute ID was diagnosed if SF <100 ng/ml and TSAT <20%. Relative ID was defined by SF >100 ng/ml and TSAT <20%. Results: The group of medical staff was younger and had a greater proportion of women. The prevalence of absolute ID was 22.5% in patients and 43.1% in medical staff; relative ID was present in 15% of patients and 1.7% of medical staff. Among patients, the absolute ID was significantly correlated with the female sex (p=0.002) and pre-menopausal status (p=0.01) but did not correlate with diagnosis, age, BMI, nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID), aspirin or acenocoumarol consumption. The relative ID is associated with advanced age (p=0.03) and diagnosis of cancer and liver cirrhosis (p=0.01). Conclusions: Absolute ID had a high prevalence among patients (22.5%), but there was even a bigger issue among the medical staff (43.1%). Absolute ID was correlated with female sex and pre-menopausal status. Relative ID was related to advanced age, cancer and liver cirrhosis. Abbreviations: serum ferritine- SF, transferrin saturation coefficient- TSAT, iron deficiency- ID, inflammatory bowel diseases- IBD, quality of life- QoL, GI- gastrointestinal.

Iron deficiency in a tertiary gastroenterology center in Romania: prevalence and significancy

PubMed Central

Preda, Carmen Monica; Proca, Doina; Sandra, Irina; Horeanga, Boroka Claudia; Fulger, Larisa Elena; Manuc, Teodora; Bancila, Ion; Balas, Oana Elena; Manuc, Mircea; Diculescu, Mircea; Baicus, Cristian; Tieranu, Cristian; Constantinescu, Ileana

2018-01-01

Introduction:Iron deficiency has been known to cause significant functional impairment, lower quality of life and higher morbidity and mortality. The aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence and significance of iron deficiency in our patients and medical staff. Material and methods:We performed a prospective cross-sectional study: In July 2016, 383 persons were screened for the presence of iron deficiency (ID): 325 patients and 58 people from the medical staff. Transferrin saturation (TSAT), serum ferritin (SF) and complete blood count were performed. Absolute ID was diagnosed if SF <100 ng/ml and TSAT <20%. Relative ID was defined by SF >100 ng/ml and TSAT <20%. Results:The group of medical staff was younger and had a greater proportion of women. The prevalence of absolute ID was 22.5% in patients and 43.1% in medical staff; relative ID was present in 15% of patients and 1.7% of medical staff. Among patients, the absolute ID was significantly correlated with the female sex (p=0.002) and pre-menopausal status (p=0.01) but did not correlate with diagnosis, age, BMI, nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID), aspirin or acenocoumarol consumption. The relative ID is associated with advanced age (p=0.03) and diagnosis of cancer and liver cirrhosis (p=0.01). Conclusions:Absolute ID had a high prevalence among patients (22.5%), but there was even a bigger issue among the medical staff (43.1%). Absolute ID was correlated with female sex and pre-menopausal status. Relative ID was related to advanced age, cancer and liver cirrhosis. Abbreviations: serum ferritine- SF, transferrin saturation coefficient- TSAT, iron deficiency- ID, inflammatory bowel diseases- IBD, quality of life- QoL, GI- gastrointestinal PMID:29696062

Absolute instabilities of travelling wave solutions in a Keller-Segel model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, P. N.; van Heijster, P.; Marangell, R.

2017-11-01

We investigate the spectral stability of travelling wave solutions in a Keller-Segel model of bacterial chemotaxis with a logarithmic chemosensitivity function and a constant, sublinear, and linear consumption rate. Linearising around the travelling wave solutions, we locate the essential and absolute spectrum of the associated linear operators and find that all travelling wave solutions have parts of the essential spectrum in the right half plane. However, we show that in the case of constant or sublinear consumption there exists a range of parameters such that the absolute spectrum is contained in the open left half plane and the essential spectrum can thus be weighted into the open left half plane. For the constant and sublinear consumption rate models we also determine critical parameter values for which the absolute spectrum crosses into the right half plane, indicating the onset of an absolute instability of the travelling wave solution. We observe that this crossing always occurs off of the real axis.

Prediction of relative and absolute permeabilities for gas and water from soil water retention curves using a pore-scale network model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, Ulrich; Celia, Michael A.

1999-04-01

Functional relationships for unsaturated flow in soils, including those between capillary pressure, saturation, and relative permeabilities, are often described using analytical models based on the bundle-of-tubes concept. These models are often limited by, for example, inherent difficulties in prediction of absolute permeabilities, and in incorporation of a discontinuous nonwetting phase. To overcome these difficulties, an alternative approach may be formulated using pore-scale network models. In this approach, the pore space of the network model is adjusted to match retention data, and absolute and relative permeabilities are then calculated. A new approach that allows more general assignments of pore sizes within the network model provides for greater flexibility to match measured data. This additional flexibility is especially important for simultaneous modeling of main imbibition and drainage branches. Through comparisons between the network model results, analytical model results, and measured data for a variety of both undisturbed and repacked soils, the network model is seen to match capillary pressure-saturation data nearly as well as the analytical model, to predict water phase relative permeabilities equally well, and to predict gas phase relative permeabilities significantly better than the analytical model. The network model also provides very good estimates for intrinsic permeability and thus for absolute permeabilities. Both the network model and the analytical model lost accuracy in predicting relative water permeabilities for soils characterized by a van Genuchten exponent n≲3. Overall, the computational results indicate that reliable predictions of both relative and absolute permeabilities are obtained with the network model when the model matches the capillary pressure-saturation data well. The results also indicate that measured imbibition data are crucial to good predictions of the complete hysteresis loop.

Impact of aortic valve calcification, as measured by MDCT, on survival in patients with aortic stenosis: results of an international registry study.

PubMed

Clavel, Marie-Annick; Pibarot, Philippe; Messika-Zeitoun, David; Capoulade, Romain; Malouf, Joseph; Aggarval, Shivani; Araoz, Phillip A; Michelena, Hector I; Cueff, Caroline; Larose, Eric; Miller, Jordan D; Vahanian, Alec; Enriquez-Sarano, Maurice

2014-09-23

Aortic valve calcification (AVC) load measures lesion severity in aortic stenosis (AS) and is useful for diagnostic purposes. Whether AVC predicts survival after diagnosis, independent of clinical and Doppler echocardiographic AS characteristics, has not been studied. This study evaluated the impact of AVC load, absolute and relative to aortic annulus size (AVCdensity), on overall mortality in patients with AS under conservative treatment and without regard to treatment. In 3 academic centers, we enrolled 794 patients (mean age, 73 ± 12 years; 274 women) diagnosed with AS by Doppler echocardiography who underwent multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) within the same episode of care. Absolute AVC load and AVCdensity (ratio of absolute AVC to cross-sectional area of aortic annulus) were measured, and severe AVC was separately defined in men and women. During follow-up, there were 440 aortic valve implantations (AVIs) and 194 deaths (115 under medical treatment). Univariate analysis showed strong association of absolute AVC and AVCdensity with survival (both, p < 0.0001) with a spline curve analysis pattern of threshold and plateau of risk. After adjustment for age, sex, coronary artery disease, diabetes, symptoms, AS severity on hemodynamic assessment, and LV ejection fraction, severe absolute AVC (adjusted hazard ratio [HR]: 1.75; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.04 to 2.92; p = 0.03) or severe AVCdensity (adjusted HR: 2.44; 95% CI: 1.37 to 4.37; p = 0.002) independently predicted mortality under medical treatment, with additive model predictive value (all, p ≤ 0.04) and a net reclassification index of 12.5% (p = 0.04). Severe absolute AVC (adjusted HR: 1.71; 95% CI: 1.12 to 2.62; p = 0.01) and severe AVCdensity (adjusted HR: 2.22; 95% CI: 1.40 to 3.52; p = 0.001) also independently predicted overall mortality, even with adjustment for time-dependent AVI. This large-scale, multicenter outcomes study of quantitative Doppler echocardiographic and MDCT assessment of AS shows that measuring AVC load provides incremental prognostic value for survival beyond clinical and Doppler echocardiographic assessment. Severe AVC independently predicts excess mortality after AS diagnosis, which is greatly alleviated by AVI. Thus, measurement of AVC by MDCT should be considered for not only diagnostic but also risk-stratification purposes in patients with AS. Copyright © 2014 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A review on Black-Scholes model in pricing warrants in Bursa Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gunawan, Nur Izzaty Ilmiah Indra; Ibrahim, Siti Nur Iqmal; Rahim, Norhuda Abdul

2017-01-01

This paper studies the accuracy of the Black-Scholes (BS) model and the dilution-adjusted Black-Scholes (DABS) model to pricing some warrants traded in the Malaysian market. Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) are used to compare the two models. Results show that the DABS model is more accurate than the BS model for the selected data.

Numerical model estimating the capabilities and limitations of the fast Fourier transform technique in absolute interferometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Talamonti, James J.; Kay, Richard B.; Krebs, Danny J.

1996-05-01

A numerical model was developed to emulate the capabilities of systems performing noncontact absolute distance measurements. The model incorporates known methods to minimize signal processing and digital sampling errors and evaluates the accuracy limitations imposed by spectral peak isolation by using Hanning, Blackman, and Gaussian windows in the fast Fourier transform technique. We applied this model to the specific case of measuring the relative lengths of a compound Michelson interferometer. By processing computer-simulated data through our model, we project the ultimate precision for ideal data, and data containing AM-FM noise. The precision is shown to be limited by nonlinearities in the laser scan. absolute distance, interferometer.

Iodine-Xenon Dating: Sensitive Chronometer for Reprocessing in the Primitive Solar System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pravdivtseva, O. V.; Hohenberg, C. M.

1999-01-01

The I-Xe chronometer is based upon decay of I-129 to Xe-129 in the early Solar System. Recent comparison of I-Xe system in individual mineral separates from twelve different meteorites with independent Pb-Pb data has demonstrated that I-Xe clock is a reliable sensitive chronometer when applied to a single mineral system. Since most iodine hosts are secondary minerals, the I-Xe clock generally records post-formational processing, providing the information on early meteorite evolution. Absolute I-Xe ages can be found by normalization using the measured I-Xe and Pb-Pb ages of Acapulco phosphate (4.557 plus or minus 0.002 Ga). Absolute ages for the I-Xe internal standards Shallow water and Bjurbole, 4.566 plus or minus 0.002 Ga and 4.565 plus or minus 0.003 Ga, respectively, provide absolute I-Xe ages for all other samples. The I-Xe age of bulk meteorite is meaningful and interpretable only when the carrier of primordial iodine is a major mineral phase (e. g., enstatite chondrites). Using the "monomineral" approach, separated phases from the Richardton H5 chondrite provide a case history of post-formational alteration in this object. This work applies the I-Xe chronometer to determine the times of reprocessing of selected minerals in single meteorite types. A preliminary account of this work was recently reported. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Systematic changes in position sense accompany normal aging across adulthood.

PubMed

Herter, Troy M; Scott, Stephen H; Dukelow, Sean P

2014-03-25

Development of clinical neurological assessments aimed at separating normal from abnormal capabilities requires a comprehensive understanding of how basic neurological functions change (or do not change) with increasing age across adulthood. In the case of proprioception, the research literature has failed to conclusively determine whether or not position sense in the upper limb deteriorates in elderly individuals. The present study was conducted a) to quantify whether upper limb position sense deteriorates with increasing age, and b) to generate a set of normative data that can be used for future comparisons with clinical populations. We examined position sense in 209 healthy males and females between the ages of 18 and 90 using a robotic arm position-matching task that is both objective and reliable. In this task, the robot moved an arm to one of nine positions and subjects attempted to mirror-match that position with the opposite limb. Measures of position sense were recorded by the robotic apparatus in hand-and joint-based coordinates, and linear regressions were used to quantify age-related changes and percentile boundaries of normal behaviour. For clinical comparisons, we also examined influences of sex (male versus female) and test-hand (dominant versus non-dominant) on all measures of position sense. Analyses of hand-based parameters identified several measures of position sense (Variability, Shift, Spatial Contraction, Absolute Error) with significant effects of age, sex, and test-hand. Joint-based parameters at the shoulder (Absolute Error) and elbow (Variability, Shift, Absolute Error) also exhibited significant effects of age and test-hand. The present study provides strong evidence that several measures of upper extremity position sense exhibit declines with age. Furthermore, this data provides a basis for quantifying when changes in position sense are related to normal aging or alternatively, pathology.

Parallax measurements of cool brown dwarfs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manjavacas, E.; Goldman, B.; Reffert, S.; Henning, T.

2013-12-01

Context. Accurate parallax measurements allow us to determine physical properties of brown dwarfs and help us constrain evolutionary and atmospheric models, break age-mass degeneracy, and reveal unresolved binaries. Aims: We measured absolute trigonometric parallaxes and proper motions of six cool brown dwarfs using background galaxies to establish an absolute reference frame. We derive the absolute J-band magnitude. The six T brown dwarfs in our sample have spectral types between T2.5 and T8 and magnitudes between 13.9 and 18.0 in the Two Micron All Sky Survey (2MASS) with photometric distances below 25 pc. Methods: The observations were taken in the J-band with the Omega-2000 camera on the 3.5 m telescope at Calar Alto during a time period of 27 months between March 2011 and June 2013. The number of epochs varied between 11 and 12 depending on the object. The reduction of the astrometric measurements was carried out with respect to the field stars. The relative parallax and proper motions were transformed into absolute measurements using the background galaxies in our fields. Results: We obtained absolute parallaxes for our six brown dwarfs with a precision between 3 and 6 mas. We compared our results in a color-magnitude diagram with other brown dwarfs with determined parallax and with the BT-Settl 2012 atmospheric models. For four of the six targets, we found a good agreement in luminosity with objects of similar spectral types. We obtained an improved accuracy in the parallaxes and proper motions in comparison to previous works. The object 2MASS J11061197+2754225 is more than 1 mag overluminous in all bands, which point to binarity or high order multiplicity. Based on observations taken with Omega-2000 at the 3.5 m telescope at the Centro Astronómico Hispano Alemán (CAHA) at Calar Alto, operated by the Max Planck Institut für Astronomie and the Instituto de Astrofísica de Andalucía (CSIC).Appendix A is available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

Passion, Trait Self-Control, and Wellbeing: Comparing Two Mediation Models Predicting Wellbeing.

PubMed

Briki, Walid

2017-01-01

Research has found that passion and trait self-control represented key determinants of wellbeing. Yet, no study to date has attempted to investigate the mediating influences of trait self-control and passion for accounting for the relationships between passion, trait self-control, and wellbeing (dependent variable). Using different frameworks, such as the dualistic model of passion and the neo-socioanalytic theory, the present study proposed two mediation models, considering either trait self-control (model 1) or passion (model 2) as the mediating variable. Five hundred nine volunteers from the United States (326 females and 183 males; M age = 31.74, SD age = 11.05, from 18 to 70 years old), who reported being passionate about a specific activity (e.g., fishing, swimming, blogging; M passion = 5.94, SD passion = 0.89), answered questionnaires assessing harmonious and obsessive passion, trait self-control, and wellbeing (measured through hedonic and eudaimonic wellbeing scales). Preliminary analyses revealed that both models were significant ( model 1: absolute GoF = 0.366, relative GoF = 0.971, outer model GoF = 0.997, inner model GoF = 0.973, R 2 = 18.300%, p < 0.001; model 2: absolute GoF = 0.298; relative GoF = 0.980; outer model GoF = 0.997; inner model GoF = 0.982; R 2 = 12.111%, p < 0.001). Correlational analyses revealed positive relationships between harmonious passion, trait self-control, and wellbeing, and no relationships of obsessive passion with trait self-control and wellbeing. Mediation analyses revealed that trait self-control significantly mediated the relationship between harmonious passion and wellbeing (i.e., partial mediation, VAF = 33.136%). Harmonious passion appeared to significantly mediate the positive effect of trait self-control on wellbeing; however, the size of the mediating effect indicated that (almost) no mediation would take place (i.e., VAF = 11.144%). The present study is the first to examine the relationships between passion, trait self-control, and wellbeing, and supports the view that trait self-control and harmonious passion represent not only adaptive and powerful constructs, but also key determinants of wellbeing. Implications for the study of passion, trait self-control and wellbeing are discussed.

Uranium isotope ratios of Muonionalusta troilite and complications for the absolute age of the IVA iron meteorite core

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brennecka, Gregory A.; Amelin, Yuri; Kleine, Thorsten

2018-05-01

The crystallization ages of planetary crustal material (given by basaltic meteorites) and planetary cores (given by iron meteorites) provide fiducial marks for the progress of planetary formation, and thus, the absolute ages of these objects fundamentally direct our knowledge and understanding of planet formation and evolution. The lone precise absolute age of planetary core material was previously obtained on troilite inclusions from the IVA iron meteorite Muonionalusta. This previously reported Pb-Pb age of 4565.3 ± 0.1 Ma-assuming a 238U/235U =137.88-only post-dated the start of the Solar System by approximately 2-3 million years, and mandated fast cooling of planetary core material. Since an accurate Pb-Pb age requires a known 238U/235U of the sample, we have measured both 238U/235U and Pb isotopic compositions of troilite inclusions from Muonionalusta. The measured 238U/235U of the samples range from ∼137.84 to as low as ∼137.22, however based on Pb and U systematics, terrestrial contamination appears pervasive and has affected samples to various extents for Pb and U. The cause of the relative 235U excess in one sample does not appear to be from terrestrial contamination or the decay of short-lived 247Cm, but is more likely from fractionation of U isotopes during metal-silicate separation during core formation, exacerbated by the extreme U depletion in the planetary core. Due to limited Pb isotopic variation and terrestrial disturbance, no samples of this study produced useful age information; however the clear divergence from the previously assumed 238U/235U of any troilite in Muonionalusta introduces substantial uncertainty to the previously reported absolute age of the sample without knowledge of the 238U/235U of the sample. Uncertainties associated with U isotope heterogeneity do not allow for definition of a robust age of solidification and cooling for the IVA core. However, one sample of this work-paired with previous work using short-lived radionuclides-suggests that the cooling age of the IVA core may be significantly younger than previously thought. This work indicates the metallic cores of protoplanetary bodies solidified no earlier than the first ∼5-10 million years of the Solar System.

Plate and Plume Flux: Constraints for paleomagnetic reference frames and interpretation of deep mantle seismic heterogeneity. (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bunge, H.; Schuberth, B. S.; Shephard, G. E.; Müller, D.

2010-12-01

Plate and plume flow are dominant modes of mantle convection, as pointed out by Geoff Davies early on. Driven, respectively, from a cold upper and a hot lower thermal boundary layer these modes are now sufficiently well imaged by seismic tomographers to exploit the thermal boundary layer concept as an effective tool in exploring two long standing geodynamic problems. One relates to the choice of an absolute reference frame in plate tectonic reconstructions. Several absolute reference frames have been proposed over the last decade, including those based on hotspot tracks displaying age progression and assuming either fixity or motion, as well as palaeomagnetically-based reference frames, a subduction reference frame and hybrid versions. Each reference frame implies a particular history of the location of subduction zones through time and thus the evolution of mantle heterogeneity via mixing of subducted slab material in the mantle. Here we compare five alternative absolute plate motion models in terms of their consequences for deep mantle structure. Taking global paleo-plate boundaries and plate velocities back to 140 Ma derived from the new plate tectonic reconstruction software GPlates and assimilating them into vigorous 3-D spherical mantle circulation models, we infer geodynamic mantle heterogeneity and compare it to seismic tomography for each absolute rotation model. We also focus on the challenging problem of interpreting deep mantle seismic heterogeneity in terms of thermal and compositional variations. Using published thermodynamically self-consistent mantle mineralogy models in the pyrolite composition, we find strong plume flux from the CMB, with a high temperature contrast (on the order of 1000 K) across the lower thermal boundary layer is entirely sufficient to explain elastic heterogeneity in the deep mantle for a number of quantitative measures. A high excess temperatures of +1000--1500 K for plumes in the lowermost mantle is particularly important in understanding the strong seismic velocity reduction mapped by tomography in low-velocity bodies of the deep mantle, as this produces significant negative anomalies of shear wave velocity of up to -4%. We note, however, that our results do not account for the curious observation of seismic anti-correlation, which appears difficult to explain in any case. Our results provide important constraints for the integration of plate tectonics and mantle dynamics and their use in forward and inverse geodynamic mantle models.

Improved Strategies and Optimization of Calibration Models for Real-time PCR Absolute Quantification

EPA Science Inventory

Real-time PCR absolute quantification applications rely on the use of standard curves to make estimates of DNA target concentrations in unknown samples. Traditional absolute quantification approaches dictate that a standard curve must accompany each experimental run. However, t...

Absolute Humidity and the Seasonality of Influenza (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaman, J. L.; Pitzer, V.; Viboud, C.; Grenfell, B.; Goldstein, E.; Lipsitch, M.

2010-12-01

Much of the observed wintertime increase of mortality in temperate regions is attributed to seasonal influenza. A recent re-analysis of laboratory experiments indicates that absolute humidity strongly modulates the airborne survival and transmission of the influenza virus. Here we show that the onset of increased wintertime influenza-related mortality in the United States is associated with anomalously low absolute humidity levels during the prior weeks. We then use an epidemiological model, in which observed absolute humidity conditions temper influenza transmission rates, to successfully simulate the seasonal cycle of observed influenza-related mortality. The model results indicate that direct modulation of influenza transmissibility by absolute humidity alone is sufficient to produce this observed seasonality. These findings provide epidemiological support for the hypothesis that absolute humidity drives seasonal variations of influenza transmission in temperate regions. In addition, we show that variations of the basic and effective reproductive numbers for influenza, caused by seasonal changes in absolute humidity, are consistent with the general timing of pandemic influenza outbreaks observed for 2009 A/H1N1 in temperate regions. Indeed, absolute humidity conditions correctly identify the region of the United States vulnerable to a third, wintertime wave of pandemic influenza. These findings suggest that the timing of pandemic influenza outbreaks is controlled by a combination of absolute humidity conditions, levels of susceptibility and changes in population mixing and contact rates.

I-Xe Dating: Comparison of I-Xe and Pb-Pb Ages of Richardton Chondrules and Separated Mineral Phases

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pravdivtseva, O. V.; Amelin, Y.; Hohenberg, C. M.; Meshik, A. P.

2002-01-01

I-Xe and Pb-Pb ages of individual Richardton chondrules and different mineral phases were compared in order to test the absolute I-Xe age normalization. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Maturity-Associated Variation in Functional Characteristics Of Elite Youth Tennis Players.

PubMed

Myburgh, Gillian K; Cumming, Sean P; Silva, Manuel Coelho E; Cooke, Karl; Malina, Robert M

2016-11-01

To evaluate relationships among skeletal maturity, body size, and functional capacities of elite junior tennis players. Participants were 88 elite British Junior tennis players (44 male; 44 female), 8-16 years of age (12.4 } 1.9 years). Skeletal age estimated maturty. Anthropometry, grip strength, countermovement jump, squat jump, forehand agility, backhand agility, Yo-Yo, 5-m, 10-m and 20-m sprints were measured. Comparative analysis for each sex was performed, relating advanced maturers (Male: 15; Female: 29) to a combination of on-time and late maturers (Male: 29; Female: 31). ANCOVAs were used to determine absolute differences between male and female players and between the 2 maturity subgroups, with chronological age as the covariate. Advanced maturity afforded male players advantages in absolute measures of grip strength, speed, upper and lower body power but not in acceleration, agility or aerobic endurance. Male players were significantly taller than females in the U13-U16 age group. Advanced maturity in female players afforded advantages in absolute measures of grip strength, agility and overhead power, but not in backhand agility, aerobic endurance or squat jump power. It is important that talent identification protocols consider the maturity of youth athletes to more satisfactorily address athletic potential rather than transient physical capabilities.

Age-resolved chemistry of red giants in the solar neighbourhood

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feuillet, Diane K.; Bovy, Jo; Holtzman, Jon; Weinberg, David H.; García-Hernández, D.; Hearty, Fred R.; Majewski, Steven R.; Roman-Lopes, Alexandre; Rybizki, Jan; Zamora, Olga

2018-06-01

In the age of high-resolution spectroscopic stellar surveys of the Milky Way, the number of stars with detailed abundances of multiple elements is rapidly increasing. These elemental abundances are directly influenced by the evolutionary history of the Galaxy, but this can be difficult to interpret without an absolute timeline of the abundance enrichment. We present age-abundance trends for [M/H], [α/M], and 17 individual elements using a sample of 721 solar neighbourhood Hipparcos red giant stars observed by Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment. These age trends are determined through a Bayesian hierarchical modelling method presented by Feuillet et al. We confirm that the [α/M]-age relation in the solar neighbourhood is steep and relatively narrow (0.20 dex age dispersion), as are the [O/M]-age and [Mg/M]-age relations. The age trend of [C/N] is steep and smooth, consistent with stellar evolution. The [M/H]-age relation has a mean age dispersion of 0.28 dex and a complex overall structure. The oldest stars in our sample are those with the lowest and highest metallicities, while the youngest stars are those with solar metallicity. These results provide strong constraints on theoretical models of Galactic chemical evolution (GCE). We compare them to the predictions of one-zone GCE models and multizone mixtures, both analytic and numerical. These comparisons support the hypothesis that the solar neighbourhood is composed of stars born at a range of Galactocentric radii, and that the most metal-rich stars likely migrated from a region with earlier and more rapid star formation such as the inner Galaxy.

Trends in educational differentials in suicide mortality between 1993-2006 in Korea.

PubMed

Lee, Weon Young; Khang, Young-Ho; Noh, Manegseok; Ryu, Jae-In; Son, Mia; Hong, Yeon-Pyo

2009-08-31

This study aims to examine how inequalities in suicide by education changed during and after macroeconomic restructuring following the economic crisis of 1997 in South Korea. Using Korea's 1995, 2000, and 2005 census data aggregately linked to mortality data (1993-2006), relative and absolute differentials in suicide mortality by education were calculated by gender and age among Korean population aged 35 and over. Average annual suicide mortality rates have steadily increased from 1993-1997 to 2003-2006 in almost all sociodemographic groups stratified by gender, age, and education. Based on the relative index of inequality (RII) and slope index of inequality (SII), educational differentials in suicide mortality generally increased over time in men and women aged 45 years+. Although RII did not increase with year among men and women aged 35 - 44 years, SII showed a significantly increasing trend in this age group. These worsening absolute inequalities in suicide mortality indicate that the governmental suicide prevention policy should be directed toward socially disadvantaged groups of the Korean population.

Towards an Absolute Chronology for the Aegean Iron Age: New Radiocarbon Dates from Lefkandi, Kalapodi and Corinth

PubMed Central

Toffolo, Michael B.; Fantalkin, Alexander; Lemos, Irene S.; Felsch, Rainer C. S.; Niemeier, Wolf-Dietrich; Sanders, Guy D. R.; Finkelstein, Israel; Boaretto, Elisabetta

2013-01-01

The relative chronology of the Aegean Iron Age is robust. It is based on minute stylistic changes in the Submycenaean, Protogeometric and Geometric styles and their sub-phases. Yet, the absolute chronology of the time-span between the final stages of Late Helladic IIIC in the late second millennium BCE and the archaic colonization of Italy and Sicily toward the end of the 8th century BCE lacks archaeological contexts that can be directly related to events carrying absolute dates mentioned in Egyptian/Near Eastern historical sources, or to well-dated Egyptian/Near Eastern rulers. The small number of radiocarbon dates available for this time span is not sufficient to establish an absolute chronological sequence. Here we present a new set of short-lived radiocarbon dates from the sites of Lefkandi, Kalapodi and Corinth in Greece. We focus on the crucial transition from the Submycenaean to the Protogeometric periods. This transition is placed in the late 11th century BCE according to the Conventional Aegean Chronology and in the late 12th century BCE according to the High Aegean Chronology. Our results place it in the second half of the 11th century BCE. PMID:24386150

Predicting the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Sichuan province, China using the ARIMA model.

PubMed

Liu, L; Luan, R S; Yin, F; Zhu, X P; Lü, Q

2016-01-01

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is an infectious disease caused by enteroviruses, which usually occurs in children aged <5 years. In China, the HFMD situation is worsening, with increasing number of cases nationwide. Therefore, monitoring and predicting HFMD incidence are urgently needed to make control measures more effective. In this study, we applied an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to forecast HFMD incidence in Sichuan province, China. HFMD infection data from January 2010 to June 2014 were used to fit the ARIMA model. The coefficient of determination (R 2), normalized Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and mean absolute percentage of error (MAPE) were used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of the constructed models. The fitted ARIMA model was applied to forecast the incidence of HMFD from April to June 2014. The goodness-of-fit test generated the optimum general multiplicative seasonal ARIMA (1,0,1) × (0,1,0)12 model (R 2 = 0·692, MAPE = 15·982, BIC = 5·265), which also showed non-significant autocorrelations in the residuals of the model (P = 0·893). The forecast incidence values of the ARIMA (1,0,1) × (0,1,0)12 model from July to December 2014 were 4103-9987, which were proximate forecasts. The ARIMA model could be applied to forecast HMFD incidence trend and provide support for HMFD prevention and control. Further observations should be carried out continually into the time sequence, and the parameters of the models could be adjusted because HMFD incidence will not be absolutely stationary in the future.

Predicting Air Permeability of Handloom Fabrics: A Comparative Analysis of Regression and Artificial Neural Network Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitra, Ashis; Majumdar, Prabal Kumar; Bannerjee, Debamalya

2013-03-01

This paper presents a comparative analysis of two modeling methodologies for the prediction of air permeability of plain woven handloom cotton fabrics. Four basic fabric constructional parameters namely ends per inch, picks per inch, warp count and weft count have been used as inputs for artificial neural network (ANN) and regression models. Out of the four regression models tried, interaction model showed very good prediction performance with a meager mean absolute error of 2.017 %. However, ANN models demonstrated superiority over the regression models both in terms of correlation coefficient and mean absolute error. The ANN model with 10 nodes in the single hidden layer showed very good correlation coefficient of 0.982 and 0.929 and mean absolute error of only 0.923 and 2.043 % for training and testing data respectively.

A generalized population dynamics model for reproductive interference with absolute density dependence.

PubMed

Kyogoku, Daisuke; Sota, Teiji

2017-05-17

Interspecific mating interactions, or reproductive interference, can affect population dynamics, species distribution and abundance. Previous population dynamics models have assumed that the impact of frequency-dependent reproductive interference depends on the relative abundances of species. However, this assumption could be an oversimplification inappropriate for making quantitative predictions. Therefore, a more general model to forecast population dynamics in the presence of reproductive interference is required. Here we developed a population dynamics model to describe the absolute density dependence of reproductive interference, which appears likely when encounter rate between individuals is important. Our model (i) can produce diverse shapes of isoclines depending on parameter values and (ii) predicts weaker reproductive interference when absolute density is low. These novel characteristics can create conditions where coexistence is stable and independent from the initial conditions. We assessed the utility of our model in an empirical study using an experimental pair of seed beetle species, Callosobruchus maculatus and Callosobruchus chinensis. Reproductive interference became stronger with increasing total beetle density even when the frequencies of the two species were kept constant. Our model described the effects of absolute density and showed a better fit to the empirical data than the existing model overall.

Structural and biomechanical basis of sexual dimorphism in femoral neck fragility has its origins in growth and aging.

PubMed

Duan, Yunbo; Beck, Thomas J; Wang, Xiao-Fang; Seeman, Ego

2003-10-01

The structural basis for sex differences in femoral neck (FN) fragility was studied in 1196 subjects and 307 patients with hip fracture. The absolute and relative patterns of modeling and remodeling on the periosteal and endocortical envelopes during growth and aging produce changes in FN geometry and structure that results in FN fragility in both sexes and sexual dimorphism in hip fracture risk in old age. Femoral neck (FN) fragility in old age is usually attributed to age-related bone loss, while the sex differences in hip fracture rate are attributed to less bone loss in men than in women. The purpose of this study was to define the structural and biomechanical basis underlying the increase in FN fragility in elderly men and women and the structural basis of sex differences in hip fracture incidence in old age. We measured FN dimensions and areal bone mineral density in 1196 healthy subjects (801 females) 18-92 years of age and 307 patients (180 females) with hip fracture using DXA. We then used the DXA-derived FN areal bone mineral density (BMD) and measured periosteal diameter to estimate endocortical diameter, cortical thickness, section modulus (a measure of bending strength), and buckling ratio (indices for structural stability). Neither FN cortical thickness nor volumetric density differed in young adult women and men after height and weight adjustment. The sex differences in geometry were confined to the further displacement of the cortex from the FN neutral axis in young men, which produced 13.4% greater bending strength than in young women. Aging amplified this geometric difference; widening of the periosteal and endocortical diameters continued in both sexes but was greater in men, shifting the cortex even further from the neutral axis maintaining bending strength in men, not in women. In both sexes, less age-related periosteal than endocortical widening produced cortical thinning increasing the risk for structural failure by local buckling of the enlarged thin walled FN. Relative to age-matched controls, women and men with hip fractures had reduced cortical thickness, but FN periosteal diameter was increased in women and reduced in men, differences are likely to be originated in growth. The absolute and relative patterns of modeling and remodeling on the periosteal and endocortical envelopes during growth and aging produce changes in FN diameters, cortical thickness, and geometry that results in FN fragility in both sexes and sexual dimorphism in hip fracture risk in old age.

Sequence of events from the onset to the demise of the Last Interglacial: Evaluating strengths and limitations of chronologies used in climatic archives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Govin, A.; Capron, E.; Tzedakis, P. C.; Verheyden, S.; Ghaleb, B.; Hillaire-Marcel, C.; St-Onge, G.; Stoner, J. S.; Bassinot, F.; Bazin, L.; Blunier, T.; Combourieu-Nebout, N.; El Ouahabi, A.; Genty, D.; Gersonde, R.; Jimenez-Amat, P.; Landais, A.; Martrat, B.; Masson-Delmotte, V.; Parrenin, F.; Seidenkrantz, M.-S.; Veres, D.; Waelbroeck, C.; Zahn, R.

2015-12-01

The Last Interglacial (LIG) represents an invaluable case study to investigate the response of components of the Earth system to global warming. However, the scarcity of absolute age constraints in most archives leads to extensive use of various stratigraphic alignments to different reference chronologies. This feature sets limitations to the accuracy of the stratigraphic assignment of the climatic sequence of events across the globe during the LIG. Here, we review the strengths and limitations of the methods that are commonly used to date or develop chronologies in various climatic archives for the time span (∼140-100 ka) encompassing the penultimate deglaciation, the LIG and the glacial inception. Climatic hypotheses underlying record alignment strategies and the interpretation of tracers are explicitly described. Quantitative estimates of the associated absolute and relative age uncertainties are provided. Recommendations are subsequently formulated on how best to define absolute and relative chronologies. Future climato-stratigraphic alignments should provide (1) a clear statement of climate hypotheses involved, (2) a detailed understanding of environmental parameters controlling selected tracers and (3) a careful evaluation of the synchronicity of aligned paleoclimatic records. We underscore the need to (1) systematically report quantitative estimates of relative and absolute age uncertainties, (2) assess the coherence of chronologies when comparing different records, and (3) integrate these uncertainties in paleoclimatic interpretations and comparisons with climate simulations. Finally, we provide a sequence of major climatic events with associated age uncertainties for the period 140-105 ka, which should serve as a new benchmark to disentangle mechanisms of the Earth system's response to orbital forcing and evaluate transient climate simulations.

Age-related differences in rates of torque development and rise in EMG are eliminated by normalization.

PubMed

Jenkins, Nathaniel D M; Buckner, Samuel L; Cochrane, Kristen C; Bergstrom, Haley C; Palmer, Ty B; Johnson, Glen O; Schmidt, Richard J; Housh, Terry J; Cramer, Joel T

2014-09-01

The purpose of this study was to compare the voluntary and evoked, absolute and normalized leg extension rates of torque development (RTD) and rates of rise in electromyography (RER) during commonly reported time intervals in young and old men. Fourteen young men (21.9±3.2years) and 16 older men (72.3±7.3years) completed three evoked and three voluntary isometric leg extension muscle actions to quantify absolute voluntary (peak, 30, 50, 100, and 200ms) and evoked (peak, 30, 50, and 100ms) RTD and RER. All RTD values were normalized (nRTD) to peak torque, while RER values were normalized (nRER) to peak-to-peak M-wave amplitude (MPP). Absolute voluntary RTDs and RERs were 58-122% and 70-76% greater (p≤0.05) for the young men, respectively. However, there were no age-related differences (p>0.05) for voluntary nRTDs, absolute and normalized evoked RTDs, or voluntary nRER. MPP and evoked RER and nRER were greater (p≤0.05) for the young men. In addition, voluntary RTD was more reliable in the young than the older men. Normalizing RTD to peak torque and RER to M-wave amplitude eliminated the age-related differences and suggested that the age-related declines in RTD and RER were a result of reduced muscle strength and M-wave amplitude, respectively. Therefore, our findings questioned the value of RTD and RER measurements in the various time intervals for explaining sarcopenia and suggested that maximal strength and M-wave amplitude may be sufficient. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A distance-independent calibration of the luminosity of type Ia supernovae and the Hubble constant

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leibundgut, Bruno; Pinto, Philip A.

1992-01-01

The absolute magnitude of SNe Ia at maximum is calibrated here using radioactive decay models for the light curve and a minimum of assumptions. The absolute magnitude parameter space is studied using explosion models and a range of rise times, and absolute B magnitudes at maximum are used to derive a range of the H0 and the distance to the Virgo Cluster from SNe Ia. Rigorous limits for H0 of 45 and 105 km/s/Mpc are derived.

Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Summary Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65·3 years (UI 65·0–65·6) in 1990, to 71·5 years (UI 71·0–71·9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47·5 million (UI 46·8–48·2) to 54·9 million (UI 53·6–56·3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute differences between countries decreased but relative differences increased. For women aged 25–39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20–49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative differences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10·7%, from 4·3 million deaths in 1990 to 4·8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specific mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade. PMID:25530442

Dating the End of the Greek Bronze Age: A Robust Radiocarbon-Based Chronology from Assiros Toumba

PubMed Central

Wardle, Kenneth; Higham, Thomas; Kromer, Bernd

2014-01-01

Over 60 recent analyses of animal bones, plant remains, and building timbers from Assiros in northern Greece form an unique series from the 14th to the 10th century BC. With the exception of Thera, the number of 14C determinations from other Late Bronze Age sites in Greece has been small and their contribution to chronologies minimal. The absolute dates determined for Assiros through Bayesian modelling are both consistent and unexpected, since they are systematically earlier than the conventional chronologies of southern Greece by between 70 and 100 years. They have not been skewed by reference to assumed historical dates used as priors. They support high rather than low Iron Age chronologies from Spain to Israel where the merits of each are fiercely debated but remain unresolved. PMID:25222862

Volcanic synchronisation of the EPICA-DC and TALDICE ice cores for the last 42 kyr BP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Severi, M.; Udisti, R.; Becagli, S.; Stenni, B.; Traversi, R.

2012-03-01

The age scale synchronisation between the Talos Dome and the EPICA Dome C ice cores was carried on through the identification of several common volcanic signatures. This paper describes the rigorous method, using the signature of volcanic sulphate, which was employed for the last 42 kyr of the record. Using this tight stratigraphic link, we transferred the EDC age scale to the Talos Dome ice core, producing a new age scale for the last 12 kyr. We estimated the discrepancies between the modelled TALDICE-1 age scale and the new scale during the studied period, by evaluating the ratio R of the apparent duration of temporal intervals between pairs of isochrones. Except for a very few cases, R ranges between 0.8 and 1.2, corresponding to an uncertainty of up to 20% in the estimate of the time duration in at least one of the two ice cores. At this stage our approach does not allow us to unequivocally identify which of the models is affected by errors, but, taking into account only the historically known volcanic events, we found that discrepancies up to 200 yr appear in the last two millennia in the TALDICE-1 model, while our new age scale shows a much better agreement with the volcanic absolute horizons. Thus, we propose for the Talos Dome ice core a new age scale (covering the whole Holocene) obtained by a direct transfer, via our stratigraphic link, from the EDC modelled age scale by Lemieux-Dudon et al. (2010).

Absolute nuclear material assay

DOEpatents

Prasad, Manoj K [Pleasanton, CA; Snyderman, Neal J [Berkeley, CA; Rowland, Mark S [Alamo, CA

2012-05-15

A method of absolute nuclear material assay of an unknown source comprising counting neutrons from the unknown source and providing an absolute nuclear material assay utilizing a model to optimally compare to the measured count distributions. In one embodiment, the step of providing an absolute nuclear material assay comprises utilizing a random sampling of analytically computed fission chain distributions to generate a continuous time-evolving sequence of event-counts by spreading the fission chain distribution in time.

Absolute nuclear material assay

DOEpatents

Prasad, Manoj K [Pleasanton, CA; Snyderman, Neal J [Berkeley, CA; Rowland, Mark S [Alamo, CA

2010-07-13

A method of absolute nuclear material assay of an unknown source comprising counting neutrons from the unknown source and providing an absolute nuclear material assay utilizing a model to optimally compare to the measured count distributions. In one embodiment, the step of providing an absolute nuclear material assay comprises utilizing a random sampling of analytically computed fission chain distributions to generate a continuous time-evolving sequence of event-counts by spreading the fission chain distribution in time.

Ovarian cancer survival population differences: a "high resolution study" comparing Philippine residents, and Filipino-Americans and Caucasians living in the US.

PubMed

Redaniel, Maria Theresa M; Laudico, Adriano; Mirasol-Lumague, Maria Rica; Gondos, Adam; Uy, Gemma Leonora; Toral, Jean Ann; Benavides, Doris; Brenner, Hermann

2009-09-24

In contrast to most other forms of cancer, data from some developing and developed countries show surprisingly similar survival rates for ovarian cancer. We aimed to compare ovarian cancer survival in Philippine residents, Filipino-Americans and Caucasians living in the US, using a high resolution approach, taking potential differences in prognostic factors into account. Using databases from the SEER 13 and from the Manila and Rizal Cancer Registries, age-adjusted five-year absolute and relative survival estimates were computed using the period analysis method and compared between Filipino-American ovarian cancer patients with cancer patients from the Philippines and Caucasians in the US. Cox proportional hazards modelling was used to determine factors affecting survival differences. Despite more favorable distribution of age and cancer morphology and similar stage distribution, 5-year absolute and relative survival were lower in Philippine residents (Absolute survival, AS, 44%, Standard Error, SE, 2.9 and Relative survival, RS, 49.7%, SE, 3.7) than in Filipino-Americans (AS, 51.3%, SE, 3.1 and RS, 54.1%, SE, 3.4). After adjustment for these and additional covariates, strong excess risk of death for Philippine residents was found (Relative Risk, RR, 2.45, 95% confidence interval, 95% CI, 1.99-3.01). In contrast, no significant differences were found between Filipino-Americans and Caucasians living in the US. Multivariate analyses disclosed strong survival disadvantages of Philippine residents compared to Filipino-American patients, for which differences in access to health care might have played an important role. Survival is no worse among Filipino-Americans than among Caucasians living in the US.

Updating the planetary time scale: focus on Mars

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tanaka, Kenneth L.; Quantin-Nataf, Cathy

2013-01-01

Formal stratigraphic systems have been developed for the surface materials of the Moon, Mars, Mercury, and the Galilean satellite Ganymede. These systems are based on geologic mapping, which establishes relative ages of surfaces delineated by superposition, morphology, impact crater densities, and other relations and features. Referent units selected from the mapping determine time-stratigraphic bases and/or representative materials characteristic of events and periods for definition of chronologic units. Absolute ages of these units in some cases can be estimated using crater size-frequency data. For the Moon, the chronologic units and cratering record are calibrated by radiometric ages measured from samples collected from the lunar surface. Model ages for other cratered planetary surfaces are constructed primarily by estimating cratering rates relative to that of the Moon. Other cratered bodies with estimated surface ages include Venus and the Galilean satellites of Jupiter. New global geologic mapping and crater dating studies of Mars are resulting in more accurate and detailed reconstructions of its geologic history.

Aping humans: age and sex effects in chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes) and human (Homo sapiens) personality.

PubMed

King, James E; Weiss, Alexander; Sisco, Melissa M

2008-11-01

Ratings of 202 chimpanzees on 43 personality descriptor adjectives were used to calculate scores on five domains analogous to the human Five-Factor Model and a chimpanzee-specific Dominance domain. Male and female chimpanzees were divided into five age groups ranging from juvenile to old adult. Internal consistencies and interrater reliabilities of factors were stable across age groups and approximately 6.8 year retest reliabilities were high. Age-related declines in Extraversion and Openness and increases in Agreeableness and Conscientiousness paralleled human age differences. The mean change in absolute standardized units for all five factors was virtually identical in humans and chimpanzees after adjustment for different developmental rates. Consistent with their aggressive behavior in the wild, male chimpanzees were rated as more aggressive, emotional, and impulsive than females. Chimpanzee sex differences in personality were greater than comparable human gender differences. These findings suggest that chimpanzee and human personality develop via an unfolding maturational process. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2008 APA, all rights reserved).

Demographic Changes in Germany up to 2060 - Consequences for Blood Donation.

PubMed

Ehling, Manfred; Pötzsch, Olga

2010-06-01

This paper outlines the results of a most recent model calculation regarding the structure and development of Germany's population by 2060 with the aim to provide basic demographic data for the future provision of blood components to the population. Firstly, the paper describes the assumptions on fertility, life expectancy and Germany's balance of immigration and emigration which formed the basis for the projection. The following part discusses the results, quantifies future changes in the size and age structure of Germany's population, and illustrates the effects of demographic trends which can be identified from today's point of view. The number of potential blood donors will decline in absolute and relative terms (related to the total population and the age group of 'non-donors') in the future. This holds true for both the age bracket of 18 to 68 years and the alternatively chosen age group of 17 to 70 years. Depending on the variant, the population of blood donation age will decrease by one quarter to one third until 2060.

Progress towards zero, an international comparison: Improvements in traffic fatality from 1990 to 2010 for different age groups in the USA and 15 of its peers.

PubMed

Ahangari, Hamed; Atkinson-Palombo, Carol; Garrick, Norman W

2016-06-01

In January 2015, the United States Department of Transportation (USDOT) announced that the official target of the federal government transportation safety policy was zero deaths. Having a better understanding of traffic fatality trends of various age cohorts-and to what extent the US is lagging other countries-is a crucial first step to identifying policies that may help the USDOT achieve its goal. In this paper we analyze fatality rates for different age cohorts in developed countries to better understand how road traffic fatality patterns vary across countries by age cohort. Using benchmarking analysis and comparative index analysis based on panel data modelling and data for selected years between 1990 and 2010, we compare changes in the rate of road traffic fatality over time, as well as the absolute level of road traffic fatality for six age groups in the US, with 15 other developed countries. Our findings illustrate tremendous variations in road fatality rates (both in terms of the absolute values and the rates of improvement over time) among different age cohorts in all of the 16 countries. Looking specifically at the US, our analysis shows that safety improvements for Youngsters (15-17 years old) was much better than for other age groups, and closely tracked peer countries. In sharp contrast, Children (0-14 years old) and Seniors (+65 years old) in the US, fare very poorly when compared to peer countries. For example, in 2010, Children in the US were a stunning five times more likely to experience a road traffic fatality than Children in the UK. This startling statistic suggests an immediate need to explore further the causes and potential solutions to these disparities. This is especially important if countries, including the US, are to achieve the ambitious goals set out in Zero Vision initiatives. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

Water quality management using statistical analysis and time-series prediction model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parmar, Kulwinder Singh; Bhardwaj, Rashmi

2014-12-01

This paper deals with water quality management using statistical analysis and time-series prediction model. The monthly variation of water quality standards has been used to compare statistical mean, median, mode, standard deviation, kurtosis, skewness, coefficient of variation at Yamuna River. Model validated using R-squared, root mean square error, mean absolute percentage error, maximum absolute percentage error, mean absolute error, maximum absolute error, normalized Bayesian information criterion, Ljung-Box analysis, predicted value and confidence limits. Using auto regressive integrated moving average model, future water quality parameters values have been estimated. It is observed that predictive model is useful at 95 % confidence limits and curve is platykurtic for potential of hydrogen (pH), free ammonia, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, dissolved oxygen, water temperature (WT); leptokurtic for chemical oxygen demand, biochemical oxygen demand. Also, it is observed that predicted series is close to the original series which provides a perfect fit. All parameters except pH and WT cross the prescribed limits of the World Health Organization /United States Environmental Protection Agency, and thus water is not fit for drinking, agriculture and industrial use.

Improved age determination of blood and teeth samples using a selected set of DNA methylation markers

PubMed Central

Kamalandua, Aubeline

2015-01-01

Age estimation from DNA methylation markers has seen an exponential growth of interest, not in the least from forensic scientists. The current published assays, however, can still be improved by lowering the number of markers in the assay and by providing more accurate models to predict chronological age. From the published literature we selected 4 age-associated genes (ASPA, PDE4C, ELOVL2, and EDARADD) and determined CpG methylation levels from 206 blood samples of both deceased and living individuals (age range: 0–91 years). This data was subsequently used to compare prediction accuracy with both linear and non-linear regression models. A quadratic regression model in which the methylation levels of ELOVL2 were squared showed the highest accuracy with a Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) between chronological age and predicted age of 3.75 years and an adjusted R2 of 0.95. No difference in accuracy was observed for samples obtained either from living and deceased individuals or between the 2 genders. In addition, 29 teeth from different individuals (age range: 19–70 years) were analyzed using the same set of markers resulting in a MAD of 4.86 years and an adjusted R2 of 0.74. Cross validation of the results obtained from blood samples demonstrated the robustness and reproducibility of the assay. In conclusion, the set of 4 CpG DNA methylation markers is capable of producing highly accurate age predictions for blood samples from deceased and living individuals PMID:26280308

Effects of Simulated Interventions to Improve School Entry Academic Skills on Socioeconomic Inequalities in Educational Achievement

PubMed Central

Chittleborough, Catherine R; Mittinty, Murthy N; Lawlor, Debbie A; Lynch, John W

2014-01-01

Randomized controlled trial evidence shows that interventions before age 5 can improve skills necessary for educational success; the effect of these interventions on socioeconomic inequalities is unknown. Using trial effect estimates, and marginal structural models with data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (n = 11,764, imputed), simulated effects of plausible interventions to improve school entry academic skills on socioeconomic inequality in educational achievement at age 16 were examined. Progressive universal interventions (i.e., more intense intervention for those with greater need) to improve school entry academic skills could raise population levels of educational achievement by 5% and reduce absolute socioeconomic inequality in poor educational achievement by 15%. PMID:25327718

Performance of a Deep-Learning Neural Network Model in Assessing Skeletal Maturity on Pediatric Hand Radiographs.

PubMed

Larson, David B; Chen, Matthew C; Lungren, Matthew P; Halabi, Safwan S; Stence, Nicholas V; Langlotz, Curtis P

2018-04-01

Purpose To compare the performance of a deep-learning bone age assessment model based on hand radiographs with that of expert radiologists and that of existing automated models. Materials and Methods The institutional review board approved the study. A total of 14 036 clinical hand radiographs and corresponding reports were obtained from two children's hospitals to train and validate the model. For the first test set, composed of 200 examinations, the mean of bone age estimates from the clinical report and three additional human reviewers was used as the reference standard. Overall model performance was assessed by comparing the root mean square (RMS) and mean absolute difference (MAD) between the model estimates and the reference standard bone ages. Ninety-five percent limits of agreement were calculated in a pairwise fashion for all reviewers and the model. The RMS of a second test set composed of 913 examinations from the publicly available Digital Hand Atlas was compared with published reports of an existing automated model. Results The mean difference between bone age estimates of the model and of the reviewers was 0 years, with a mean RMS and MAD of 0.63 and 0.50 years, respectively. The estimates of the model, the clinical report, and the three reviewers were within the 95% limits of agreement. RMS for the Digital Hand Atlas data set was 0.73 years, compared with 0.61 years of a previously reported model. Conclusion A deep-learning convolutional neural network model can estimate skeletal maturity with accuracy similar to that of an expert radiologist and to that of existing automated models. © RSNA, 2017 An earlier incorrect version of this article appeared online. This article was corrected on January 19, 2018.

Aging of immune system: Immune signature from peripheral blood lymphocyte subsets in 1068 healthy adults.

PubMed

Qin, Ling; Jing, Xie; Qiu, Zhifeng; Cao, Wei; Jiao, Yang; Routy, Jean-Pierre; Li, Taisheng

2016-05-01

Aging is a major risk factor for several conditions including neurodegenerative, cardiovascular diseases and cancer. Functional impairments in cellular pathways controlling genomic stability, and immune control have been identified. Biomarker of immune senescence is needed to improve vaccine response and to develop therapy to improve immune control. To identify phenotypic signature of circulating immune cells with aging, we enrolled 1068 Chinese healthy volunteers ranging from 18 to 80 years old. The decreased naïve CD4+ and CD8+ T cells, increased memory CD4+ or CD8+ T cells, loss of CD28 expression on T cells and reverse trend of CD38 and HLA-DR, were significant for aging of immune system. Conversely, the absolute counts and percentage of NK cells and CD19+B cells maintained stable in aging individuals. The Chinese reference ranges of absolute counts and percentage of peripheral lymphocyte in this study might be useful for future clinical evaluation.

Applying Additive Hazards Models for Analyzing Survival in Patients with Colorectal Cancer in Fars Province, Southern Iran

PubMed

Madadizadeh, Farzan; Ghanbarnejad, Amin; Ghavami, Vahid; Zare Bandamiri, Mohammad; Mohammadianpanah, Mohammad

2017-04-01

Introduction: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a commonly fatal cancer that ranks as third worldwide and third and the fifth in Iranian women and men, respectively. There are several methods for analyzing time to event data. Additive hazards regression models take priority over the popular Cox proportional hazards model if the absolute hazard (risk) change instead of hazard ratio is of primary concern, or a proportionality assumption is not made. Methods: This study used data gathered from medical records of 561 colorectal cancer patients who were admitted to Namazi Hospital, Shiraz, Iran, during 2005 to 2010 and followed until December 2015. The nonparametric Aalen’s additive hazards model, semiparametric Lin and Ying’s additive hazards model and Cox proportional hazards model were applied for data analysis. The proportionality assumption for the Cox model was evaluated with a test based on the Schoenfeld residuals and for test goodness of fit in additive models, Cox-Snell residual plots were used. Analyses were performed with SAS 9.2 and R3.2 software. Results: The median follow-up time was 49 months. The five-year survival rate and the mean survival time after cancer diagnosis were 59.6% and 68.1±1.4 months, respectively. Multivariate analyses using Lin and Ying’s additive model and the Cox proportional model indicated that the age of diagnosis, site of tumor, stage, and proportion of positive lymph nodes, lymphovascular invasion and type of treatment were factors affecting survival of the CRC patients. Conclusion: Additive models are suitable alternatives to the Cox proportionality model if there is interest in evaluation of absolute hazard change, or no proportionality assumption is made. Creative Commons Attribution License

An Integrated Model of Choices and Response Times in Absolute Identification

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, Scott D.; Marley, A. A. J.; Donkin, Christopher; Heathcote, Andrew

2008-01-01

Recent theoretical developments in the field of absolute identification have stressed differences between relative and absolute processes, that is, whether stimulus magnitudes are judged relative to a shorter term context provided by recently presented stimuli or a longer term context provided by the entire set of stimuli. The authors developed a…

Why the US science and engineering workforce is aging rapidly.

PubMed

Blau, David M; Weinberg, Bruce A

2017-04-11

The science and engineering workforce has aged rapidly in recent years, both in absolute terms and relative to the workforce as a whole. This is a potential concern if the large number of older scientists crowds out younger scientists, making it difficult for them to establish independent careers. In addition, scientists are believed to be most creative earlier in their careers, so the aging of the workforce may slow the pace of scientific progress. We develop and simulate a demographic model, which shows that a substantial majority of recent aging is a result of the aging of the large baby boom cohort of scientists. However, changes in behavior have also played a significant role, in particular, a decline in the retirement rate of older scientists, induced in part by the elimination of mandatory retirement in universities in 1994. Furthermore, the age distribution of the scientific workforce is still adjusting. Current retirement rates and other determinants of employment in science imply a steady-state mean age 2.3 y higher than the 2008 level of 48.6.

Why the US science and engineering workforce is aging rapidly

PubMed Central

Blau, David M.

2017-01-01

The science and engineering workforce has aged rapidly in recent years, both in absolute terms and relative to the workforce as a whole. This is a potential concern if the large number of older scientists crowds out younger scientists, making it difficult for them to establish independent careers. In addition, scientists are believed to be most creative earlier in their careers, so the aging of the workforce may slow the pace of scientific progress. We develop and simulate a demographic model, which shows that a substantial majority of recent aging is a result of the aging of the large baby boom cohort of scientists. However, changes in behavior have also played a significant role, in particular, a decline in the retirement rate of older scientists, induced in part by the elimination of mandatory retirement in universities in 1994. Furthermore, the age distribution of the scientific workforce is still adjusting. Current retirement rates and other determinants of employment in science imply a steady-state mean age 2.3 y higher than the 2008 level of 48.6. PMID:28348239

Measuring Socioeconomic Inequalities With Predicted Absolute Incomes Rather Than Wealth Quintiles: A Comparative Assessment Using Child Stunting Data From National Surveys.

PubMed

Fink, Günther; Victora, Cesar G; Harttgen, Kenneth; Vollmer, Sebastian; Vidaletti, Luís Paulo; Barros, Aluisio J D

2017-04-01

To compare the predictive power of synthetic absolute income measures with that of asset-based wealth quintiles in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) using child stunting as an outcome. We pooled data from 239 nationally representative household surveys from LMICs and computed absolute incomes in US dollars based on households' asset rank as well as data on national consumption and inequality levels. We used multivariable regression models to compare the predictive power of the created income measure with the predictive power of existing asset indicator measures. In cross-country analysis, log absolute income predicted 54.5% of stunting variation observed, compared with 20% of variation explained by wealth quintiles. For within-survey analysis, we also found absolute income gaps to be predictive of the gaps between stunting in the wealthiest and poorest households (P < .001). Our results suggest that absolute income levels can greatly improve the prediction of stunting levels across and within countries over time, compared with models that rely solely on relative wealth quintiles.

Absolute nuclear material assay using count distribution (LAMBDA) space

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Prasad, Mano K.; Snyderman, Neal J.; Rowland, Mark S.

A method of absolute nuclear material assay of an unknown source comprising counting neutrons from the unknown source and providing an absolute nuclear material assay utilizing a model to optimally compare to the measured count distributions. In one embodiment, the step of providing an absolute nuclear material assay comprises utilizing a random sampling of analytically computed fission chain distributions to generate a continuous time-evolving sequence of event-counts by spreading the fission chain distribution in time.

Absolute nuclear material assay using count distribution (LAMBDA) space

DOEpatents

Prasad, Manoj K [Pleasanton, CA; Snyderman, Neal J [Berkeley, CA; Rowland, Mark S [Alamo, CA

2012-06-05

A method of absolute nuclear material assay of an unknown source comprising counting neutrons from the unknown source and providing an absolute nuclear material assay utilizing a model to optimally compare to the measured count distributions. In one embodiment, the step of providing an absolute nuclear material assay comprises utilizing a random sampling of analytically computed fission chain distributions to generate a continuous time-evolving sequence of event-counts by spreading the fission chain distribution in time.

Hydroxyurea and Growth in Young Children With Sickle Cell Disease

PubMed Central

Houston, Patricia E.; Wang, Winfred C.; Iyer, Rathi V.; Goldsmith, Jonathan; Casella, James F.; Reed, Caroline K.; Rogers, Zora R.; Waclawiw, Myron A.; Thompson, Bruce

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND: Growth impairment is a known complication of sickle cell disease. Effects of hydroxyurea (HU) on growth in very young children are not known. METHODS: Height, weight, BMI, and head circumference (HC) were compared with World Health Organization (WHO) standards in BABY HUG, a multicenter, randomized, double-blinded, placebo-controlled 2-year clinical trial of HU in 193 children 9 to 18 months of age. Anthropometric data were closely monitored and converted to z scores by using WHO standardized algorithms for descriptive analyses. The treatment and placebo groups were compared longitudinally by using a mixed model analysis. RESULTS: At entry, the z scores of BABY HUG children were higher than WHO norms. After 2 years of HU or placebo treatment, there were no significant differences between the groups, except for the mean HC z scores at study exit (HU: +0.8 versus placebo: +1.0, P = .05). Baseline z scores were the best predictors of z scores at study exit. The absolute neutrophil count, absolute reticulocyte count, and total white blood cell count had significant negative correlations with growth measures. CONCLUSIONS: Both groups had normal or near normal anthropometric measures during the study. The HC z scores at study entry and exit were slightly greater than WHO norms. Higher baseline white blood cell count, absolute reticulocyte count, and absolute neutrophil count were associated with poorer growth. The significance of the slightly lower HC in the treatment group at study exit is not clear. Trends toward normalization of weight and height and effects on HC will be monitored in ongoing BABY HUG follow-up studies. PMID:25157002

Evaluation of the product ratio coherent model in forecasting mortality rates and life expectancy at births by States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shair, Syazreen Niza; Yusof, Aida Yuzi; Asmuni, Nurin Haniah

2017-05-01

Coherent mortality forecasting models have recently received increasing attention particularly in their application to sub-populations. The advantage of coherent models over independent models is the ability to forecast a non-divergent mortality for two or more sub-populations. One of the coherent models was recently developed by [1] known as the product-ratio model. This model is an extension version of the functional independent model from [2]. The product-ratio model has been applied in a developed country, Australia [1] and has been extended in a developing nation, Malaysia [3]. While [3] accounted for coherency of mortality rates between gender and ethnic group, the coherency between states in Malaysia has never been explored. This paper will forecast the mortality rates of Malaysian sub-populations according to states using the product ratio coherent model and its independent version— the functional independent model. The forecast accuracies of two different models are evaluated using the out-of-sample error measurements— the mean absolute forecast error (MAFE) for age-specific death rates and the mean forecast error (MFE) for the life expectancy at birth. We employ Malaysian mortality time series data from 1991 to 2014, segregated by age, gender and states.

Disturbances in the Isotopic Record of Asuka 881394

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nyquist, L. E.; Bogard, D. D.

2011-01-01

Asuka 881394 is a unique achondrite with a granulitic texture, very calcic approximately An(sub 98) plagioclase, and pigeonite that has not inverted to orthopyroxene. First thought to be a eucrite, recent Oisotopic studies show it has a closer affinity to angrites . Initial isotopic studies provided evidence for now extinct A-26, Mn-53, and Sm-146. A recent study confirmed an early chronology with an absolute Pb-207 - Pb-206 age of 4566.5 +/- 0.2 Ma, a new measurement of the Al-Mg formation interval as 3.7 +/- 0.1 Ma since Al-26/Al-27 = approximately 4.63 x 10(exp -5) for the E60 CAI, and a Mn-Cr formation interval of -6.0 +/- 0.2 Ma relative to LEW86010 ("LEW"). Absolute ages relative to age anchors presented by were 4563.4 +/- 0.2 Ma by Al- Mg and 4564.6 +/- 0.5 Ma by Mn-Cr. These ages are in good, but not perfect, agreement with the Pb-207 - Pb-206 age. Perhaps the most direct comparison of the early chronology of A881394 as determined by various workers is provided by reported Al-26/Al-27 values of 1.18 +/- 0.14, 1.28 +/- 0.07, and 2.1 +/- 0.4 x 10(exp -6). Analyses of mineral separates by TIMS and MC-ICPMS6] agree well, but the higher value obtained by in situ SIMS analysis is significant in light of the slight inconsistency between absolute ages inferred from the short-lived chronometers and the Pb-207 - Pb-206 age. We examine the possibility that inconsistencies in the earliest fine-scale chronology of Asuka 881394 may be related to isotopic "disturbances" observed in Ar-39 - Ar-40, Rb-97 - Sr-87, and Sm-147 - Nd-143 chronometers.

Simulation study of the effect of influenza and influenza vaccination on risk of acquiring Guillain-Barré syndrome.

PubMed

Hawken, Steven; Kwong, Jeffrey C; Deeks, Shelley L; Crowcroft, Natasha S; McGeer, Allison J; Ducharme, Robin; Campitelli, Michael A; Coyle, Doug; Wilson, Kumanan

2015-02-01

It is unclear whether seasonal influenza vaccination results in a net increase or decrease in the risk for Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS). To assess the effect of seasonal influenza vaccination on the absolute risk of acquiring GBS, we used simulation models and published estimates of age- and sex-specific risks for GBS, influenza incidence, and vaccine effectiveness. For a hypothetical 45-year-old woman and 75-year-old man, excess GBS risk for influenza vaccination versus no vaccination was -0.36/1 million vaccinations (95% credible interval -1.22% to 0.28) and -0.42/1 million vaccinations (95% credible interval, -3.68 to 2.44), respectively. These numbers represent a small absolute reduction in GBS risk with vaccination. Under typical conditions (e.g. influenza incidence rates >5% and vaccine effectiveness >60%), vaccination reduced GBS risk. These findings should strengthen confidence in the safety of influenza vaccine and allow health professionals to better put GBS risk in context when discussing influenza vaccination with patients.

Epiaortic fat pad area: A novel index for the dimensions of the ascending aorta.

PubMed

Toufan, Mehrnoush; Pourafkari, Leili; Boudagh, Shabnam; Nader, Nader D

2016-06-01

We sought to investigate the possible association between the area of the epiaortic fat pad (EAFP) and dimensions of the ascending aorta. A total of 193 individuals underwent transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) prospectively. The area of the EAFP was traced anterior to the aortic root and correlated with the diameter of the aorta. The mean area of the EAFP was 5.16 ± 2.28 cm(2) Absolute and indexed dimensions of the ascending aorta had a significant correlation with the area of the EAFP (p <0.001 for all). In a multivariate linear regression model, age >65 (p <0.001), body mass index >30 kg/m(2) (p = 0.02) and a history of hyperlipidemia (p = 0.003) were identified as independent predictors of the area for EAFP. In conclusion, both the absolute and indexed diameters of the ascending aorta at the different segments that directly come into contact with the EAFP linearly correlate with the area of the EAFP measured by TTE. © The Author(s) 2016.

Absolute dimensions and masses of eclipsing binaries. V. IQ Persei

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lacy, C.H.; Frueh, M.L.

1985-08-01

New photometric and spectroscopic observations of the 1.7 day eclipsing binary IQ Persei (B8 + A6) have been analyzed to yield very accurate fundamental properties of the system. Reticon spectroscopic observations obtained at McDonald Observatory were used to determine accurate radial velocities of both stars in this slightly eccentric large light-ratio binary. A new set of VR light curves obtained at McDonald Observatory were analyzed by synthesis techniques, and previously published UBV light curves were reanalyzed to yield accurate photometric orbits. Orbital parameters derived from both sets of photometric observations are in excellent agreement. The absolute dimensions, masses, luminosities, andmore » apsidal motion period (140 yr) derived from these observations agree well with the predictions of theoretical stellar evolution models. The A6 secondary is still very close to the zero-age main sequence. The B8 primary is about one-third of the way through its main-sequence evolution. 27 references.« less

The hip fracture incidence curve is shifting to the right

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background The number of hip fractures has doubled in the last 30–40 years in many countries. Age-adjusted incidence has been reported to be decreasing in Europe and North America, but is there a decreasing trend in all age groups? Patients and methods This population-based study included all hip-fracture patients over 50 years of age (a total of 2,919 individuals, 31% of whom were men) admitted to Umeå University Hospital, Sweden, from 1993 through 2005. Results The incidence of hip fracture declined between the periods 1993–1996 and 2001–2005: from 706 to 625 hip fractures per 105 women and from 390 to 317 hip fractures per 105 men. However, there was a 114% increase in the number of fractures in women aged 90 or older (12 and 25 hip fractures/year, respectively, in the two time periods). For the period 2001–05, women ≥ 90 years of age accounted for almost the same numbers of hip fractures as women aged 75–79 (27 fractures/year). The rate increased during this period, from 2,700 per 105 women to 3,900 per 105 women > 90 years. In men there were declining trends for both relative and absolute numbers. Interpretation Although age-adjusted incidence declined in the population > 50 years of age, absolute fracture rate and incidence increased in the very old. Women over 90 now have the same absolute number of hip fractures every year as women aged 75–79 years. There was a right-shift in hip fracture distribution towards the oldest old, probably due to an increased number of octo/nonagenarians, a new population of particularly frail old people that hardly existed earlier. Better health among septuagenarians may also have delayed the age at which fractures occurred. This changing pattern will strain orthopedic and geriatric resources even more. PMID:19916682

Generation of 1/f noise from a broken-symmetry model for the arbitrary absolute pitch of musical melodies.

PubMed

Grant, Martin; Faghihi, Niloufar

2017-11-01

A model is presented to generate power spectrum noise with intensity proportional to 1/f  as a function of frequency f. The model arises from a broken-symmetry variable, which corresponds to absolute pitch, where fluctuations occur in an attempt to restore that symmetry, influenced by interactions in the creation of musical melodies.

A revised burial dose estimation procedure for optical dating of youngand modern-age sediments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arnold, L.J.; Roberts, R.G.; Galbraith, R.F.; DeLong, S.B.

2009-01-01

The presence of genuinely zero-age or near-zero-age grains in modern-age and very young samples poses a problem for many existing burial dose estimation procedures used in optical (optically stimulated luminescence, OSL) dating. This difficulty currently necessitates consideration of relatively simplistic and statistically inferior age models. In this study, we investigate the potential for using modified versions of the statistical age models of Galbraith et??al. [Galbraith, R.F., Roberts, R.G., Laslett, G.M., Yoshida, H., Olley, J.M., 1999. Optical dating of single and multiple grains of quartz from Jinmium rock shelter, northern Australia: Part I, experimental design and statistical models. Archaeometry 41, 339-364.] to provide reliable equivalent dose (De) estimates for young and modern-age samples that display negative, zero or near-zero De estimates. For this purpose, we have revised the original versions of the central and minimum age models, which are based on log-transformed De values, so that they can be applied to un-logged De estimates and their associated absolute standard errors. The suitability of these 'un-logged' age models is tested using a series of known-age fluvial samples deposited within two arroyo systems from the American Southwest. The un-logged age models provide accurate burial doses and final OSL ages for roughly three-quarters of the total number of samples considered in this study. Sensitivity tests reveal that the un-logged versions of the central and minimum age models are capable of producing accurate burial dose estimates for modern-age and very young (<350??yr) fluvial samples that contain (i) more than 20% of well-bleached grains in their De distributions, or (ii) smaller sub-populations of well-bleached grains for which the De values are known with high precision. Our results indicate that the original (log-transformed) versions of the central and minimum age models are still preferable for most routine dating applications, since these age models are better suited to the statistical properties of typical single-grain and multi-grain single-aliquot De datasets. However, the unique error properties of modern-age samples, combined with the problems of calculating natural logarithms of negative or zero-Gy De values, mean that the un-logged versions of the central and minimum age models currently offer the most suitable means of deriving accurate burial dose estimates for very young and modern-age samples. ?? 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Population genetics inside a cell: Mutations and mitochondrial genome maintenance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goyal, Sidhartha; Shraiman, Boris; Gottschling, Dan

2012-02-01

In realistic ecological and evolutionary systems natural selection acts on multiple levels, i.e. it acts on individuals as well as on collection of individuals. An understanding of evolutionary dynamics of such systems is limited in large part due to the lack of experimental systems that can challenge theoretical models. Mitochondrial genomes (mtDNA) are subjected to selection acting on cellular as well as organelle levels. It is well accepted that mtDNA in yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae is unstable and can degrade over time scales comparable to yeast cell division time. We utilize a recent technology designed in Gottschling lab to extract DNA from populations of aged yeast cells and deep sequencing to characterize mtDNA variation in a population of young and old cells. In tandem, we developed a stochastic model that includes the essential features of mitochondrial biology that provides a null model for expected mtDNA variation. Overall, we find approximately 2% of the polymorphic loci that show significant increase in frequency as cells age providing direct evidence for organelle level selection. Such quantitative study of mtDNA dynamics is absolutely essential to understand the propagation of mtDNA mutations linked to a spectrum of age-related diseases in humans.

The Steep Ramp Test in Dutch white children and adolescents: age- and sex-related normative values.

PubMed

Bongers, Bart C; de Vries, Sanne I; Obeid, Joyce; van Buuren, Stef; Helders, Paul J M; Takken, Tim

2013-11-01

The Steep Ramp Test (SRT), a feasible, reliable, and valid exercise test on a cycle ergometer, may be more appealing for use in children in daily clinical practice than the traditional cardiopulmonary exercise test because of its short duration, its resemblance to children's daily activity patterns, and the fact that it does not require respiratory gas analysis. The aim of the present study was to provide sex- and age-related normative values for SRT performance in Dutch white children and adolescents who were healthy and 8 to 19 years old. This was a cross-sectional, observational study. A total of 252 Dutch white children and adolescents, 118 boys (mean age=13.4 years, SD=3.0) and 134 girls (mean age=13.4 years, SD=2.9), performed the SRT (work rate increment of 10, 15, or 20 W·10 s(-1), depending on body height) to voluntary exhaustion to assess peak work rate (WRpeak). Normative values are presented as reference centiles developed by use of generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape. Peak work rate correlated highly with age (r=.915 and r=.811), body mass (r=.870 and r=.850), body height (r=.922 and r=.896), body surface area (r=.906 and r=.885), and fat free mass (r=.930 and r=.902) in boys and girls, respectively. The reference curves demonstrated an almost linear increase in WRpeak with age in boys, even when WRpeak was normalized for body mass. In contrast, absolute WRpeak in girls increased constantly until the age of approximately 13 years, when it started to level off. Peak work rate normalized for body mass in girls showed only a slight increase with age until 14 years of age, when a slight decrease in relative WRpeak was observed. The sample may not have been entirely representative of the Dutch population. The present study provides sex- and age-related normative values for SRT performance in terms of both absolute WRpeak and relative WRpeak, thereby facilitating the interpretation of SRT results by clinicians and researchers.

A new formula for assessing skeletal age in growing infants and children by measuring carpals and epiphyses of radio and ulna.

PubMed

De Luca, Stefano; Mangiulli, Tatiana; Merelli, Vera; Conforti, Federica; Velandia Palacio, Luz Andrea; Agostini, Susanna; Spinas, Enrico; Cameriere, Roberto

2016-04-01

The aim of this study is to develop a specific formula for the purpose of assessing skeletal age in a sample of Italian growing infants and children by measuring carpals and epiphyses of radio and ulna. A sample of 332 X-rays of left hand-wrist bones (130 boys and 202 girls), aged between 1 and 16 years, was analyzed retrospectively. Analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) was applied to study how sex affects the growth of the ratio Bo/Ca in the boys and girls groups. The regression model, describing age as a linear function of sex and the Bo/Ca ratio for the new Italian sample, yielded the following formula: Age = -1.7702 + 1.0088 g + 14.8166 (Bo/Ca). This model explained 83.5% of total variance (R(2) = 0.835). The median of the absolute values of residuals (observed age minus predicted age) was -0.38, with a quartile deviation of 2.01 and a standard error of estimate of 1.54. A second sample test of 204 Italian children (108 girls and 96 boys), aged between 1 and 16 years, was used to evaluate the accuracy of the specific regression model. A sample paired t-test was used to analyze the mean differences between the skeletal and chronological age. The mean error for girls is 0.00 and the estimated age is slightly underestimated in boys with a mean error of -0.30 years. The standard deviations are 0.70 years for girls and 0.78 years for boys. The obtained results indicate that there is a high relationship between estimated and chronological ages. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

Modelling second malignancy risks from low dose rate and high dose rate brachytherapy as monotherapy for localised prostate cancer.

PubMed

Murray, Louise; Mason, Joshua; Henry, Ann M; Hoskin, Peter; Siebert, Frank-Andre; Venselaar, Jack; Bownes, Peter

2016-08-01

To estimate the risks of radiation-induced rectal and bladder cancers following low dose rate (LDR) and high dose rate (HDR) brachytherapy as monotherapy for localised prostate cancer and compare to external beam radiotherapy techniques. LDR and HDR brachytherapy monotherapy plans were generated for three prostate CT datasets. Second cancer risks were assessed using Schneider's concept of organ equivalent dose. LDR risks were assessed according to a mechanistic model and a bell-shaped model. HDR risks were assessed according to a bell-shaped model. Relative risks and excess absolute risks were estimated and compared to external beam techniques. Excess absolute risks of second rectal or bladder cancer were low for both LDR (irrespective of the model used for calculation) and HDR techniques. Average excess absolute risks of rectal cancer for LDR brachytherapy according to the mechanistic model were 0.71 per 10,000 person-years (PY) and 0.84 per 10,000 PY respectively, and according to the bell-shaped model, were 0.47 and 0.78 per 10,000 PY respectively. For HDR, the average excess absolute risks for second rectal and bladder cancers were 0.74 and 1.62 per 10,000 PY respectively. The absolute differences between techniques were very low and clinically irrelevant. Compared to external beam prostate radiotherapy techniques, LDR and HDR brachytherapy resulted in the lowest risks of second rectal and bladder cancer. This study shows both LDR and HDR brachytherapy monotherapy result in low estimated risks of radiation-induced rectal and bladder cancer. LDR resulted in lower bladder cancer risks than HDR, and lower or similar risks of rectal cancer. In absolute terms these differences between techniques were very small. Compared to external beam techniques, second rectal and bladder cancer risks were lowest for brachytherapy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Population Pharmacokinetics of Intravenous Paracetamol (Acetaminophen) in Preterm and Term Neonates: Model Development and External Evaluation.

PubMed

Cook, Sarah F; Roberts, Jessica K; Samiee-Zafarghandy, Samira; Stockmann, Chris; King, Amber D; Deutsch, Nina; Williams, Elaine F; Allegaert, Karel; Wilkins, Diana G; Sherwin, Catherine M T; van den Anker, John N

2016-01-01

The aims of this study were to develop a population pharmacokinetic model for intravenous paracetamol in preterm and term neonates and to assess the generalizability of the model by testing its predictive performance in an external dataset. Nonlinear mixed-effects models were constructed from paracetamol concentration-time data in NONMEM 7.2. Potential covariates included body weight, gestational age, postnatal age, postmenstrual age, sex, race, total bilirubin, and estimated glomerular filtration rate. An external dataset was used to test the predictive performance of the model through calculation of bias, precision, and normalized prediction distribution errors. The model-building dataset included 260 observations from 35 neonates with a mean gestational age of 33.6 weeks [standard deviation (SD) 6.6]. Data were well-described by a one-compartment model with first-order elimination. Weight predicted paracetamol clearance and volume of distribution, which were estimated as 0.348 L/h (5.5 % relative standard error; 30.8 % coefficient of variation) and 2.46 L (3.5 % relative standard error; 14.3 % coefficient of variation), respectively, at the mean subject weight of 2.30 kg. An external evaluation was performed on an independent dataset that included 436 observations from 60 neonates with a mean gestational age of 35.6 weeks (SD 4.3). The median prediction error was 10.1 % [95 % confidence interval (CI) 6.1-14.3] and the median absolute prediction error was 25.3 % (95 % CI 23.1-28.1). Weight predicted intravenous paracetamol pharmacokinetics in neonates ranging from extreme preterm to full-term gestational status. External evaluation suggested that these findings should be generalizable to other similar patient populations.

Population Pharmacokinetics of Intravenous Paracetamol (Acetaminophen) in Preterm and Term Neonates: Model Development and External Evaluation

PubMed Central

Cook, Sarah F.; Roberts, Jessica K.; Samiee-Zafarghandy, Samira; Stockmann, Chris; King, Amber D.; Deutsch, Nina; Williams, Elaine F.; Allegaert, Karel; Sherwin, Catherine M. T.; van den Anker, John N.

2017-01-01

Objectives The aims of this study were to develop a population pharmacokinetic model for intravenous paracetamol in preterm and term neonates and to assess the generalizability of the model by testing its predictive performance in an external dataset. Methods Nonlinear mixed-effects models were constructed from paracetamol concentration–time data in NONMEM 7.2. Potential covariates included body weight, gestational age, postnatal age, postmenstrual age, sex, race, total bilirubin, and estimated glomerular filtration rate. An external dataset was used to test the predictive performance of the model through calculation of bias, precision, and normalized prediction distribution errors. Results The model-building dataset included 260 observations from 35 neonates with a mean gestational age of 33.6 weeks [standard deviation (SD) 6.6]. Data were well-described by a one-compartment model with first-order elimination. Weight predicted paracetamol clearance and volume of distribution, which were estimated as 0.348 L/h (5.5 % relative standard error; 30.8 % coefficient of variation) and 2.46 L (3.5 % relative standard error; 14.3 % coefficient of variation), respectively, at the mean subject weight of 2.30 kg. An external evaluation was performed on an independent dataset that included 436 observations from 60 neonates with a mean gestational age of 35.6 weeks (SD 4.3). The median prediction error was 10.1 % [95 % confidence interval (CI) 6.1–14.3] and the median absolute prediction error was 25.3 % (95 % CI 23.1–28.1). Conclusions Weight predicted intravenous paracetamol pharmacokinetics in neonates ranging from extreme preterm to full-term gestational status. External evaluation suggested that these findings should be generalizable to other similar patient populations. PMID:26201306

Epidemiology of hip fracture and the development of FRAX in Ukraine.

PubMed

Povoroznyuk, V V; Grygorieva, N V; Kanis, J A; Ev, McCloskey; Johansson, H; Harvey, N C; Korzh, M O; Strafun, S S; Vaida, V M; Klymovytsky, F V; Vlasenko, R O; Forosenko, V S

2017-12-01

A country-specific FRAX model has been developed for the Ukraine to replace the Austrian model hitherto used. Comparison of the Austrian and Ukrainian models indicated that the former markedly overestimated fracture probability whilst correctly stratifying risk. FRAX has been used to estimate osteoporotic fracture risk since 2009. Rather than using a surrogate model, the Austrian version of FRAX was adopted for clinical practice. Since then, data have become available on hip fracture incidence in the Ukraine. The incidence of hip fracture was computed from three regional estimates and used to construct a country-specific FRAX model for the Ukraine. The model characteristics were compared with those of the Austrian FRAX model, previously used in Ukraine by using all combinations of six risk factors and eight values of BMD (total number of combinations =512). The relationship between the probabilities of a major fracture derived from the two versions of FRAX indicated a close correlation between the two estimates (r > 0.95). The Ukrainian version, however, gave markedly lower probabilities than the Austrian model at all ages. For a major osteoporotic fracture, the median probability was lower by 25% at age 50 years and the difference increased with age. At the age of 60, 70 and 80 years, the median value was lower by 30, 53 and 65%, respectively. Similar findings were observed for men and for hip fracture. The Ukrainian FRAX model should enhance accuracy of determining fracture probability among the Ukrainian population and help to guide decisions about treatment. The study also indicates that the use of surrogate FRAX models or models from other countries, whilst correctly stratifying risk, may markedly over or underestimate the absolute fracture probability.

Evolution of the rate of biological aging using a phenotype based computational model.

PubMed

Kittas, Aristotelis

2010-10-07

In this work I introduce a simple model to study how natural selection acts upon aging, which focuses on the viability of each individual. It is able to reproduce the Gompertz law of mortality and can make predictions about the relation between the level of mutation rates (beneficial/deleterious/neutral), age at reproductive maturity and the degree of biological aging. With no mutations, a population with low age at reproductive maturity R stabilizes at higher density values, while with mutations it reaches its maximum density, because even for large pre-reproductive periods each individual evolves to survive to maturity. Species with very short pre-reproductive periods can only tolerate a small number of detrimental mutations. The probabilities of detrimental (P(d)) or beneficial (P(b)) mutations are demonstrated to greatly affect the process. High absolute values produce peaks in the viability of the population over time. Mutations combined with low selection pressure move the system towards weaker phenotypes. For low values in the ratio P(d)/P(b), the speed at which aging occurs is almost independent of R, while higher values favor significantly species with high R. The value of R is critical to whether the population survives or dies out. The aging rate is controlled by P(d) and P(b) and the amount of the viability of each individual is modified, with neutral mutations allowing the system more "room" to evolve. The process of aging in this simple model is revealed to be fairly complex, yielding a rich variety of results. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Latency of pupillary reflex to light stimulation and its relationship to aging.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1965-09-01

A method is described for measuring pupillary contraction latency period regardless of initial absolute pupil diameter. Pupillary contraction latency period increases with age: the data presented show that the normal pupil, as usually found in health...

Effects of Age and Schooling on 22 Ability and Achievement Tests

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gambrell, James Lamar

2013-01-01

Although much educational research has investigated the relative effectiveness of different educational interventions and policies, little is known about the absolute net benefits of K-12 schooling independent of growth due to chronological age and out-of-school experience. The nearly universal policy of age tracking in schools makes this a…

Trends in Educational Differentials in Suicide Mortality between 1993 - 2006 in Korea

PubMed Central

Lee, Weon Young; Khang, Young-Ho; Noh, Manegseok; Ryu, Jae-In; Son, Mia

2009-01-01

Purpose This study aims to examine how inequalities in suicide by education changed during and after macroeconomic restructuring following the economic crisis of 1997 in South Korea. Materials and Methods Using Korea's 1995, 2000, and 2005 census data aggregately linked to mortality data (1993 - 2006), relative and absolute differentials in suicide mortality by education were calculated by gender and age among Korean population aged 35 and over. Results Average annual suicide mortality rates have steadily increased from 1993 - 1997 to 2003 - 2006 in almost all sociodemographic groups stratified by gender, age, and education. Based on the relative index of inequality (RII) and slope index of inequality (SII), educational differentials in suicide mortality generally increased over time in men and women aged 45 years +. Although RII did not increase with year among men and women aged 35 - 44 years, SII showed a significantly increasing trend in this age group. Conclusion These worsening absolute inequalities in suicide mortality indicate that the governmental suicide prevention policy should be directed toward socially disadvantaged groups of the Korean population. PMID:19718395

The urethral pressure profiles in continent and stress-incontinent women.

PubMed

Henriksson, L; Andersson, K E; Ulmsten, U

1979-01-01

Simultaneous urethrocystometry, including recording of the urethral pressure profile, was performed in 127 women aged 30 to 69 years; 42 of the women were free from urologic disorders and 85 had stress incontinence of urine. Both groups were subgrouped according to age. The results in the continent and the incontinent women were analyzed separately, in order to disclose any age-related changes. The data within each decade of age were also comparatively analyzed. In the bladder pressure at rest no age-related changes were found, and the readings were similar in the continent and the incontinent women. The maximum urethral pressure fell significantly with rising age in both groups and was significantly reduced in stress incontinence. The urethral closure pressure showed variations similar to those in the maximum urethral pressure. No lower limit of urethral closure pressure that definitely predisposed to stress incontinence could be established. The functional length of the urethra diminished significantly with rising age in the continent, but not in the incontinent women. The absolute length of the urethra did not show such diminution. Both the functional and the absolute urethral length were significantly less in the incontinent than in the continent women in the age groups between 30 and 49 years.

Evaluation of the Re-Os Geochronometer in Organic-rich Mudrocks as a Method for Constraining the Absolute Ages of Neoproterozoic Glaciogenic Deposits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kendall, B. S.; Creaser, R. A.; Ross, G. M.

2002-12-01

Absolute-age constraints on the Neoproterozoic glaciations are generally poor due to a paucity of suitable plutonic and volcanic igneous rocks that are temporally and spatially related to Neoproterozoic glaciogenic deposits and are amenable to radiometric dating methods. In this study, the Re-Os isotope systematics of dark gray, sulfidic slates from the Old Fort Point Formation (OFP) of the Windermere Supergroup (near Jasper, Alberta) were examined to test the ability of the Re-Os geochronometer to provide an absolute age constraint for a Neoproterozoic glaciogenic deposit. The OFP has been interpreted as the deep water expression of post-glacial sea level rise and therefore is comparable stratigraphically to cap carbonates that immediately overlie glaciogenic deposits worldwide. Despite the relatively low Re (6-16 ppb) and Os (0.07-0.14 ppb) concentrations and total organic contents (~ 0.5% TOC) of the slates compared to other organic-rich mudrocks used in previous Re-Os isotope studies, precise well-fitted Re-Os isochrons have been obtained with two different dissolution methods. An age of 620.8 +/- 8.1 Ma (MSWD = 0.9; initial 187Os/188Os = 0.68 +/- 0.06) is obtained using conventional aqua regia dissolution. Using a method designed to selectively dissolve organic matter alone, an age of 609.0 +/- 8.3 Ma (MSWD = 1.5; initial 187Os/188Os = 0.62 +/- 0.05) is obtained. These absolute age results are in accord with existing age constraints (e.g., stratigraphically younger Hamill Group with a U-Pb zircon age of 569 Ma). The well-defined Re-Os systematics of the OFP slates demonstrates for the first time that the Re-Os system is not disturbed in organic-rich sediments during lower greenschist (-chlorite) grade metamorphic conditions. The whole-rock analysis of each individual sample yields consistently higher initial 187Os/188Os isotope ratios than the corresponding organic matter analysis and suggests that a significant radiogenic detrital Os component is present within the OFP slates. Because organic matter is likely dominated by the hydrogenous (seawater) Os budget, the initial 187Os/188Os ratio of 0.62 +/- 0.05 calculated from the organic matter regression represents the best estimate of the Os isotopic composition of the contemporaneous seawater at the time of sediment deposition. The corresponding age of 609.0 +/- 8.3 Ma is then considered to be the best depositional age determination for the OFP and provides a minimum absolute age constraint on the stratigraphically underlying glaciogenic Mount Vreeland Formation (northeastern British Columbia) and the correlative Ice Brook diamictites (Mackenzie Mountains, northwestern Canada). Thus, we conclude that the Mount Vreeland and Ice Brook diamictites are older than the ~ 580-570 Ma glaciogenic deposits of Eastern North America and may thus be considered as lower Marinoan in age. Further application of the Re-Os geochronometer to other organic-rich mudrock horizons spatially and temporally related to Neoproterozoic glaciogenic deposits will allow further opportunities for their correlation and provide better age constraints on the timing, number, and duration of the Neoproterozoic glaciations. This will allow a further assessment of the Snowball Earth Theory and its prediction of global, synchronous glaciations.

Absolute irradiance of the Moon for on-orbit calibration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stone, T.C.; Kieffer, H.H.; ,

2002-01-01

The recognized need for on-orbit calibration of remote sensing imaging instruments drives the ROLO project effort to characterize the Moon for use as an absolute radiance source. For over 5 years the ground-based ROLO telescopes have acquired spatially-resolved lunar images in 23 VNIR (Moon diameter ???500 pixels) and 9 SWIR (???250 pixels) passbands at phase angles within ??90 degrees. A numerical model for lunar irradiance has been developed which fits hundreds of ROLO images in each band, corrected for atmospheric extinction and calibrated to absolute radiance, then integrated to irradiance. The band-coupled extinction algorithm uses absorption spectra of several gases and aerosols derived from MODTRAN to fit time-dependent component abundances to nightly observations of standard stars. The absolute radiance scale is based upon independent telescopic measurements of the star Vega. The fitting process yields uncertainties in lunar relative irradiance over small ranges of phase angle and the full range of lunar libration well under 0.5%. A larger source of uncertainty enters in the absolute solar spectral irradiance, especially in the SWIR, where solar models disagree by up to 6%. Results of ROLO model direct comparisons to spacecraft observations demonstrate the ability of the technique to track sensor responsivity drifts to sub-percent precision. Intercomparisons among instruments provide key insights into both calibration issues and the absolute scale for lunar irradiance.

Age group estimation in free-ranging African elephants based on acoustic cues of low-frequency rumbles

PubMed Central

Stoeger, Angela S.; Zeppelzauer, Matthias; Baotic, Anton

2015-01-01

Animal vocal signals are increasingly used to monitor wildlife populations and to obtain estimates of species occurrence and abundance. In the future, acoustic monitoring should function not only to detect animals, but also to extract detailed information about populations by discriminating sexes, age groups, social or kin groups, and potentially individuals. Here we show that it is possible to estimate age groups of African elephants (Loxodonta africana) based on acoustic parameters extracted from rumbles recorded under field conditions in a National Park in South Africa. Statistical models reached up to 70 % correct classification to four age groups (infants, calves, juveniles, adults) and 95 % correct classification when categorising into two groups (infants/calves lumped into one group versus adults). The models revealed that parameters representing absolute frequency values have the most discriminative power. Comparable classification results were obtained by fully automated classification of rumbles by high-dimensional features that represent the entire spectral envelope, such as MFCC (75 % correct classification) and GFCC (74 % correct classification). The reported results and methods provide the scientific foundation for a future system that could potentially automatically estimate the demography of an acoustically monitored elephant group or population. PMID:25821348

Mammographic density, breast cancer risk and risk prediction

PubMed Central

Vachon, Celine M; van Gils, Carla H; Sellers, Thomas A; Ghosh, Karthik; Pruthi, Sandhya; Brandt, Kathleen R; Pankratz, V Shane

2007-01-01

In this review, we examine the evidence for mammographic density as an independent risk factor for breast cancer, describe the risk prediction models that have incorporated density, and discuss the current and future implications of using mammographic density in clinical practice. Mammographic density is a consistent and strong risk factor for breast cancer in several populations and across age at mammogram. Recently, this risk factor has been added to existing breast cancer risk prediction models, increasing the discriminatory accuracy with its inclusion, albeit slightly. With validation, these models may replace the existing Gail model for clinical risk assessment. However, absolute risk estimates resulting from these improved models are still limited in their ability to characterize an individual's probability of developing cancer. Promising new measures of mammographic density, including volumetric density, which can be standardized using full-field digital mammography, will likely result in a stronger risk factor and improve accuracy of risk prediction models. PMID:18190724

Testing ore deposit models using in situ U-Pb geochronology of hydrothermal monazite: Paleoproterozoic gold mineralization in northern Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasmussen, Birger; Sheppard, Stephen; Fletcher, Ian R.

2006-02-01

The inability to establish absolute ages for gold deposition in the Pine Creek orogen of northern Australia has led to conflicting ore deposit models, ranging from intrusion related, which predict that gold mineralization was synchronous with granite magmatism (ca. 1835 1820 Ma), to orogenic, which place ore deposition nearly 100 m.y. later. Here we present ion microprobe U-Pb geochronology for a mineralized quartz reef from Tom's Gully mine, Mount Bundey, Northern Territory, Australia, and nearby granitic rocks and associated contact aureoles. Isotopic dating of zircon and monazite indicates that intrusion and contact metamorphism occurred ca. 1825 Ma, whereas hydrothermal monazite from the auriferous quartz reef gives a mean 207Pb/206Pb age of 1780 ± 10 Ma, interpreted as the time of gold mineralization. Mineralization therefore postdated intrusion by ˜45 m.y. and preceded a postulated ca. 1740 1730 Ma cratonwide orogenic gold event by ˜50 m.y. Hence, neither the intrusion-related model nor the recently proposed orogenic model is applicable. Combined with a reevaluation of age data from the nearby Goodall gold deposit, our data suggest that mineralization coincides with, and may be related to, an episode of regional low-grade metamorphism, deformation, and fluid circulation (Shoobridge event). Our results demonstrate the importance of high-precision in situ geochronology and detailed petrography for deciphering age relationships in ore deposits, and of testing the veracity of models for ore formation.

Absolute parameters of young stars: QZ Carinae

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, W. S. G.; Blackford, M.; Butland, R.; Budding, E.

2017-09-01

New high-resolution spectroscopy and BVR photometry together with literature data on the complex massive quaternary star QZ Car are collected and analysed. Absolute parameters are found as follows. System A: M1 = 43 (±3), M2 = 19 (+3 -7), R1 = 28 (±2), R2 = 6 (±2), (⊙); T1 ˜ 28 000, T2 ˜ 33 000 K; System B: M1 = 30 (±3), M2 = 20 (±3), R1 = 10 (±0.5), R2 = 20 (±1), (⊙); T1 ˜ 36 000, T2 ˜ 30 000 K (model dependent temperatures). The wide system AB: Period = 49.5 (±1) yr, Epochs, conjunction = 1984.8 (±1), periastron = 2005.3 (±3) yr, mean separation = 65 (±3), (au); orbital inclination = 85 (+5 -15) deg, photometric distance ˜2700 (±300) pc, age = 4 (±1) Myr. Other new contributions concern: (a) analysis of the timing of minima differences (O - C)s for the eclipsing binary (System B); (b) the width of the eclipses, pointing to relatively large effects of radiation pressure; (c) inferences from the rotational widths of lines for both Systems A and B; and (d) implications for theoretical models of early-type stars. While feeling greater confidence on the quaternary's general parametrization, observational complications arising from strong wind interactions or other, unclear, causes still inhibit precision and call for continued multiwavelength observations. Our high-inclination value for the AB system helps to explain failures to resolve the wide binary in the previous years. The derived young age independently confirms membership of QZ Car to the open cluster Collinder 228.

Variation in the Gender Gap in Inactive and Active Life Expectancy by the Definition of Inactivity Among Older Adults.

PubMed

Malhotra, Rahul; Chan, Angelique; Ajay, Shweta; Ma, Stefan; Saito, Yasuhiko

2016-10-01

To assess variation in gender gap (female-male) in inactive life expectancy (IALE) and active life expectancy (ALE) by definition of inactivity. Inactivity, among older Singaporeans, was defined as follows: Scenario 1-health-related difficulty in activities of daily living (ADLs); Scenario 2-health-related difficulty in ADLs/instrumental ADLs (IADLs); Scenario 3-health-related difficulty in ADLs/IADLs or non-health-related non-performance of IADLs. Multistate life tables computed IALE and ALE at age 60, testing three hypotheses: In all scenarios, life expectancy, absolute and relative IALE, and absolute ALE are higher for females (Hypothesis 1 [H1]); gender gap in absolute and relative IALE expands, and in absolute ALE, it contracts in Scenario 2 versus 1 (Hypothesis 2 [H2]); gender gap in absolute and relative IALE decreases, and in absolute ALE, it increases in Scenario 3 versus 2 (Hypothesis 3 [H3]). H1 was supported in Scenarios 1 and 3 but not Scenario 2. Both H2 and H3 were supported. Definition of inactivity influences gender gap in IALE and ALE. © The Author(s) 2016.

Globular cluster ages determined from the Oosterhoff period-metallicity effect using oxygen-enhanced isochrones. III

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandage, Allan

1993-08-01

The new brighter calibration of absolute luminosities of RR Lyrae stars by about 0.25 mag as a function of metallicity via the Oosterhoff period effect gives a revised age of the Galactic globular cluster system as 14 Gyr when used with the oxygen-enhanced main-sequence termination models of Bergbush and VandenBerg (1992). There is no correlation of cluster age with metallicity. The presence or absence of age differences between any two clusters is neither proof nor disproof of the Eggen-Lynden Bell-Sandage model of the formation of the Galaxy by collapse. If there were different density regimes within the initial density fluctuation that was the protogalaxy, then there has been a hierarchy of collapse times for the various parts of the present Galaxy. The age of the universe is 15 Gyr, based on the age of the Galaxy at 14 Gyr, to which 1 Gyr is added for the gestation time of the galaxies. The ratio of this age to the inverse Hubble constant with H(0) about 45 km/s Mpc, based on a recent concordant determination using supernovae of type Ia, is close to the critical value of 2/3 required if the deceleration is caused by a mean density just equal to that needed for closure. For the first time, these new data give the possibility that Omega = 1 from this timing test.

The effect of star-spots on the ages of low-mass stars determined from the lithium depletion boundary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, R. J.; Jeffries, R. D.

2014-12-01

In a coeval group of low-mass stars, the luminosity of the sharp transition between stars that retain their initial lithium and those at slightly higher masses in which Li has been depleted by nuclear reactions, the lithium depletion boundary (LDB), has been advanced as an almost model-independent means of establishing an age scale for young stars. Here, we construct polytropic models of contracting pre-main sequence stars (PMS) that have cool, magnetic star-spots blocking a fraction β of their photospheric flux. Star-spots slow the descent along Hayashi tracks, leading to lower core temperatures and less Li destruction at a given mass and age. The age, τLDB, determined from the luminosity of the LDB, LLDB, is increased by a factor of (1 - β)-E compared to that inferred from unspotted models, where E ≃ 1 + dlog τLDB/dlog LLDB and has a value ˜0.5 at ages <80 Myr, decreasing to ˜0.3 for older stars. Spotted stars have virtually the same relationship between K-band bolometric correction and colour as unspotted stars, so this relationship applies equally to ages inferred from the absolute K magnitude of the LDB. Low-mass PMS stars do have star-spots, but the appropriate value of β is highly uncertain with a probable range of 0.1 < β < 0.4. For the smaller β values, our result suggests a modest systematic increase in LDB ages that is comparable with the maximum levels of theoretical uncertainty previously claimed for the technique. The largest β values would however increase LDB ages by 20-30 per cent and demand a re-evaluation of other age estimation techniques calibrated using LDB ages.

Using thresholds based on risk of cardiovascular disease to target treatment for hypertension: modelling events averted and number treated

PubMed Central

Baker, Simon; Priest, Patricia; Jackson, Rod

2000-01-01

Objective To estimate the impact of using thresholds based on absolute risk of cardiovascular disease to target drug treatment to lower blood pressure in the community. Design Modelling of three thresholds of treatment for hypertension based on the absolute risk of cardiovascular disease. 5 year risk of disease was estimated for each participant using an equation to predict risk. Net predicted impact of the thresholds on the number of people treated and the number of disease events averted over 5 years was calculated assuming a relative treatment benefit of one quarter. Setting Auckland, New Zealand. Participants 2158 men and women aged 35-79 years randomly sampled from the general electoral rolls. Main outcome measures Predicted 5 year risk of cardiovascular disease event, estimated number of people for whom treatment would be recommended, and disease events averted over 5 years at different treatment thresholds. Results 46 374 (12%) Auckland residents aged 35-79 receive drug treatment to lower their blood pressure, averting an estimated 1689 disease events over 5 years. Restricting treatment to individuals with blood pressure ⩾170/100 mm Hg and those with blood pressure between 150/90-169/99 mm Hg who have a predicted 5 year risk of disease ⩾10% would increase the net number for whom treatment would be recommended by 19 401. This 42% relative increase is predicted to avert 1139/1689 (68%) additional disease events overall over 5 years compared with current treatment. If the threshold for 5 year risk of disease is set at 15% the number recommended for treatment increases by <10% but about 620/1689 (37%) additional events can be averted. A 20% threshold decreases the net number of patients recommended for treatment by about 10% but averts 204/1689 (12%) more disease events than current treatment. Conclusions Implementing treatment guidelines that use treatment thresholds based on absolute risk could significantly improve the efficiency of drug treatment to lower blood pressure in primary care. PMID:10710577

Sediment residence times constrained by uranium-series isotopes: A critical appraisal of the comminution approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Handley, Heather K.; Turner, Simon; Afonso, Juan C.; Dosseto, Anthony; Cohen, Tim

2013-02-01

Quantifying the rates of landscape evolution in response to climate change is inhibited by the difficulty of dating the formation of continental detrital sediments. We present uranium isotope data for Cooper Creek palaeochannel sediments from the Lake Eyre Basin in semi-arid South Australia in order to attempt to determine the formation ages and hence residence times of the sediments. To calculate the amount of recoil loss of 234U, a key input parameter used in the comminution approach, we use two suggested methods (weighted geometric and surface area measurement with an incorporated fractal correction) and typical assumed input parameter values found in the literature. The calculated recoil loss factors and comminution ages are highly dependent on the method of recoil loss factor determination used and the chosen assumptions. To appraise the ramifications of the assumptions inherent in the comminution age approach and determine individual and combined comminution age uncertainties associated to each variable, Monte Carlo simulations were conducted for a synthetic sediment sample. Using a reasonable associated uncertainty for each input factor and including variations in the source rock and measured (234U/238U) ratios, the total combined uncertainty on comminution age in our simulation (for both methods of recoil loss factor estimation) can amount to ±220-280 ka. The modelling shows that small changes in assumed input values translate into large effects on absolute comminution age. To improve the accuracy of the technique and provide meaningful absolute comminution ages, much tighter constraints are required on the assumptions for input factors such as the fraction of α-recoil lost 234Th and the initial (234U/238U) ratio of the source material. In order to be able to directly compare calculated comminution ages produced by different research groups, the standardisation of pre-treatment procedures, recoil loss factor estimation and assumed input parameter values is required. We suggest a set of input parameter values for such a purpose. Additional considerations for calculating comminution ages of sediments deposited within large, semi-arid drainage basins are discussed.

Growth in young Filipino children predicts schooling trajectories through high school.

PubMed

Daniels, Melissa C; Adair, Linda S

2004-06-01

Several studies link childhood malnutrition to adverse schooling outcomes, including delayed or diminished enrollment and increased grade repetition. However, the effects of nutrition on schooling trajectories are obscured by the cross-sectional nature of most previous research and the complex array of other phenomena that affect schooling outcomes. We explored the association between height-for-age Z-score (HAZ) at 2 y and schooling trajectory among 2198 children from the Cebu Longitudinal Health and Nutrition Survey. Parity, parental education, maternal height, household assets, environmental cleanliness, presence of electricity, and household income were identified as potential confounders. Crude and adjusted logistic and multinomial regressions of schooling outcomes (entrance age, grade repetition, and grades completed) were conducted. Entrance age and IQ were evaluated as potential mediators between HAZ and schooling outcomes. After adjustment for confounders, greater height for age protected against late enrollment among both boys and girls and predicted early enrollment among boys. Taller children were less likely to repeat grades [girls OR = 0.78 (0.67, 0.89); boys OR = 0.86 (0.74, 0.99)] and less likely to drop out during grade school rather than graduate from high school [girls OR = 0.74 (0.56, 0.98; boys OR = 0.66 (0.51, 0.84)]. Models predicting the changes in school outcomes associated with a change in overall height from -2 to 0 SD of HAZ were simulated. Absolute probability of late enrollment dropped substantially, from 6% for both boys and girls to 2% for boys and 1% for girls. Absolute grade repetition dropped approximately 7% for boys and 9% for girls. Improving early childhood nutrition may have long-lasting educational benefits, increasing the likelihood of high school completion in developing countries.

An Evaluation of the Fixed Hotspot Hypothesis for the Pacific Plate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wessel, P.; Kroenke, L. W.

2008-12-01

Using geometry and ages from 12 Pacific seamount chains, we recently constructed two new Pacific absolute plate motion models that extend our self-consistent and high-resolution models back to 145 Ma. The WK08-A model maps the full uncertainty in the age progressions into uncertainties in rotation opening angles, yielding a relatively smooth plate motion model. The WK08-G model relaxes the mapping of age uncertainties in order to better isolate secondary geometry changes seen along many co-registered chains. Both models have been used to assess the viability of the fixed hotspot hypothesis in the Pacific. In constructing these models, we found that only a small group of age samples had to be discarded on the grounds that they were discordant with the dominant trends. We were able to connect plate motions for pre- and post-Emperor age intervals by including the Ratak-Gilbert-Ellice, Liliuokalani and Musicians trails in our analysis. However, as no active hotspot locations exist for the older chains their inclusion adds additional model parameters. Both age and geometry misfits increase with age, reflecting the observed increase in age uncertainties and the broader and less distinct nature of the older trails. Paleomagnetic observations from the Emperor seamount chain have been interpreted to suggest that these seamounts must have formed at latitudes significantly more northerly than the present location of the Hawaii hotspot, implying a drifting mantle plume. At the same time, new estimates of the age of the Hawaii- Emperor bend places bend formation at a time of global plate reorganization. We will present a complete analysis of inter-chain distances between coeval radiometric samples from Pacific chains and compare these distances to the inter-hotspot distances at the present time. Significant departures from the current hotspot separations would be direct and unequivocal evidence of motion between the Pacific hotspot reference frame and the spin axis and as such complement the paleomagnetic analysis. Preliminary results suggest the Emperor segment data may indicate an increase in hotspot separation.

Fundamental frequency perturbation indicates perceived health and age in male and female speakers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feinberg, David R.

2004-05-01

There is strong support for the idea that healthy vocal chords are able to produce fundamental frequencies (F0) with minimal perturbation. Measures of F0 perturbation have been shown to discriminate pathological versus healthy populations. In addition to measuring vocal chord health, F0 perturbation is a correlate of real and perceived age. Here, the role of jitter (periodic variation in F0) and shimmer (periodic variation in amplitude of F0) in perceived health and age in a young adult (males aged 18-33, females aged 18-26), nondysphonic population was investigated. Voices were assessed for health and age by peer aged, opposite-sex raters. Jitter and shimmer were measured with Praat software (www.praat.org) using various algorithms (jitter: DDP, local, local absolute, PPQ5, and RAP; shimmer: DDA, local, local absolute, APQ3, APQ5, APQ11) to reduce measurement error, and to ascertain the robustness of the findings. Male and female voices were analyzed separately. In both sexes, ratings of health and age were significantly correlated. Measures of jitter and shimmer correlated negatively with perceived health, and positively with perceived age. Further analysis revealed that these effects were independent in male voices. Implications of this finding are that attributions of vocal health and age may reflect actual underlying condition.

Behavior of Multiclass Pesticide Residue Concentrations during the Transformation from Rose Petals to Rose Absolute.

PubMed

Tascone, Oriane; Fillâtre, Yoann; Roy, Céline; Meierhenrich, Uwe J

2015-05-27

This study investigates the concentrations of 54 multiclass pesticides during the transformation processes from rose petal to concrete and absolute using roses spiked with pesticides as a model. The concentrations of the pesticides were followed during the process of transforming the spiked rose flowers from an organic field into concrete and then into absolute. The rose flowers, the concrete, and the absolute, as well as their transformation intermediates, were analyzed for pesticide content using gas chromatography/tandem mass spectrometry. We observed that all the pesticides were extracted and concentrated in the absolute, with the exception of three molecules: fenthion, fenamiphos, and phorate. Typical pesticides were found to be concentrated by a factor of 100-300 from the rose flowers to the rose absolute. The observed effect of pesticide enrichment was also studied in roses and their extracts from four classically phytosanitary treated fields. Seventeen pesticides were detected in at least one of the extracts. Like the case for the spiked samples in our model, the pesticides present in the rose flowers from Turkey were concentrated in the absolute. Two pesticides, methidathion and chlorpyrifos, were quantified in the rose flowers at approximately 0.01 and 0.01-0.05 mg kg(-1), respectively, depending on the treated field. The concentrations determined for the corresponding rose absolutes were 4.7 mg kg(-1) for methidathion and 0.65-27.25 mg kg(-1) for chlorpyrifos.

A Social Rank Explanation of How Money Influences Health

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Objective: Financial resources are a potent determinant of health, yet it remains unclear why this is the case. We aimed to identify whether the frequently observed association between absolute levels of monetary resources and health may occur because money acts an indirect proxy for a person’s social rank. Method: To address this question we examined over 230,000 observations on 40,400 adults drawn from two representative national panel studies; the British Household Panel Survey and the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. We identified each person’s absolute income/wealth and their objective ranked position of income/wealth within a social reference-group. Absolute and rank income/wealth variables were then used to predict a series of self-reported and objectively recorded health outcomes in cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses. Results: As anticipated, those with higher levels of absolute income/wealth were found to have better health than others, after adjustment for age, gender, education, marital status, and labor force status. When evaluated simultaneously the ranked position of income/wealth but not absolute income/wealth predicted all health outcomes examined including: objective measures of allostatic load and obesity, the presence of long-standing illness, and ratings of health, physical functioning, role limitations, and pain. The health benefits of high rank were consistent in cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses and did not depend on the reference-group used to rank participants. Conclusions: This is the first study to demonstrate that social position rather than material conditions may explain the impact of money on human health. PMID:25133843

Risk of Cerebrovascular Events in 178 962 Five-Year Survivors of Cancer Diagnosed at 15 to 39 Years of Age: The TYACSS (Teenage and Young Adult Cancer Survivor Study).

PubMed

Bright, Chloe J; Hawkins, Mike M; Guha, Joyeeta; Henson, Katherine E; Winter, David L; Kelly, Julie S; Feltbower, Richard G; Hall, Marlous; Cutter, David J; Edgar, Angela B; Frobisher, Clare; Reulen, Raoul C

2017-03-28

Survivors of teenage and young adult cancer are at risk of cerebrovascular events, but the magnitude of and extent to which this risk varies by cancer type, decade of diagnosis, age at diagnosis, and attained age remains uncertain. This is the largest-ever cohort study to evaluate the risks of hospitalization for a cerebrovascular event among long-term survivors of teenage and young adult cancer. The population-based TYACSS (Teenage and Young Adult Cancer Survivor Study) (N=178,962) was linked to Hospital Episode Statistics data for England to investigate the risks of hospitalization for a cerebrovascular event among 5-year survivors of cancer diagnosed when 15 to 39 years of age. Observed numbers of first hospitalizations for cerebrovascular events were compared with that expected from the general population using standardized hospitalization ratios (SHRs) and absolute excess risks per 10 000 person-years. Cumulative incidence was calculated with death considered a competing risk. Overall, 2782 cancer survivors were hospitalized for a cerebrovascular event-40% higher than expected (SHR=1.4, 95% confidence interval, 1.3-1.4). Survivors of central nervous system (CNS) tumors (SHR=4.6, 95% confidence interval, 4.3-5.0), head and neck tumors (SHR=2.6, 95% confidence interval, 2.2-3.1), and leukemia (SHR=2.5, 95% confidence interval, 1.9-3.1) were at greatest risk. Males had significantly higher absolute excess risks than females (absolute excess risks =7 versus 3), especially among head and neck tumor survivors (absolute excess risks =30 versus 11). By 60 years of age, 9%, 6%, and 5% of CNS tumor, head and neck tumor, and leukemia survivors, respectively, had been hospitalized for a cerebrovascular event. Beyond 60 years of age, every year, 0.4% of CNS tumor survivors were hospitalized for a cerebral infarction (versus 0.1% expected), whereas at any age, every year, 0.2% of head and neck tumor survivors were hospitalized for a cerebral infarction (versus 0.06% expected). Survivors of a CNS tumor, head and neck tumor, and leukemia are particularly at risk of hospitalization for a cerebrovascular event. The excess risk of cerebral infarction among CNS tumor survivors increases with attained age. For head and neck tumor survivors, this excess risk remains high across all ages. These groups of survivors, particularly males, should be considered for surveillance of cerebrovascular risk factors and potential pharmacological interventions for cerebral infarction prevention. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Neonatal lungs: maturational changes in lung resistivity spectra.

PubMed

Brown, B H; Primhak, R A; Smallwood, R H; Milnes, P; Narracott, A J; Jackson, M J

2002-09-01

The electrical resistivity of lung tissue can be related to the structure and composition of the tissue and also to the air content. Electrical impedance tomographic measurements have been used on 155 normal children over the first three years of life and 25 pre-term infants, to determine the absolute resistivity of lung tissue as a function of frequency. The results show consistent changes with increasing age in both lung tissue resistivity (5.8 ohm m at birth to 20.9 ohm m at 3 years of age) and in the changes of resistivity with frequency (Cole parameter ratio R/S=0.41 at birth and 0.84 at 3 years of age). Comparison with a lung model showed that the measurements are consistent with maturational changes in the number and size of alveoli, the extracapillary blood volume and the size of the extracapillary vessels. However, the results show that the process of maturation is not complete at the age of three years.

Expanding Spatial Coverage of Geomagnetic Field Models Using Submarine Basaltic Glass

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schoeller, L. M.; Bowles, J. A.; Dreyer, B.; Clague, D. A.

2009-12-01

In recent years, paleointensity of submarine basaltic glass (SBG) has been used to constrain the ages of young mid-ocean ridge flows, often in the absence of more precise age data. In the present study, samples taken from the Co-Axial segment of the Juan de Fuca Ridge allow for further testing of the paleointensity dating technique; they also provide an assessment of the feasibility of incorporating SBG data into geomagnetic field models when independent age constraints are available. The nine sampled sites include six for which 14C dating of overlying sediments provides minimum ages (950 - 6400 ybp) for the flows, and three sites from historical flows. Absolute paleointensity estimates were derived using a Thellier-type method. The paleointensities of the samples ranged from 51.8 µT to 71.1 µT (VADM 8.3 to 11.6 x 1022 Am2). We compare results from the young (historical) flows directly with the International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF), and two out of three sites are consistent with IGRF. The third gives paleointensity values that are considerably higher than would be expected based on IGRF. The rest of the samples can be compared with geomagnetic field models based on archeomagnetic and paleomagnetic data. Paleointensity values from samples < 3ka are consistent with the CALS3K.3 model (Korte et al., Geochem. Geophys. Geosys., 10, Q06008, doi:10.1029/2008GC002297, 2009), given the approximate ages provided by the 14C dating of the overlying sediments. Data constraining current geomagnetic field models are spatially quite limited, with the vast majority restricted to northern hemispheric continental regions. We suggest that data from mid-ocean ridges are suitable for incorporation into such models, with the potential to greatly expand spatial coverage.

A closer look at the increase in suicide rates in South Korea from 1986-2005.

PubMed

Kwon, Jin-Won; Chun, Heeran; Cho, Sung-il

2009-02-27

Suicide rates have recently been decreasing on average among OECD countries, but increasing trends have been detected in South Korea, particularly since the 1997 economic crisis. There have been no detailed analyses about the changes of the suicide rates over time periods in Korea. We examined trends in both absolute and proportional suicide rates over the time period of economic development, crisis, and recovery (1986 - 2005) as well as in birth cohorts from 1924 to 1978. We used data on total mortality and suicide rates from 1986 to 2005 published online by the Korean National Statistical Office (NSO) and extracted data for individuals under 80 years old. The analyses of the trends for 1) the sex-age-specific total mortality rate, 2) the sex-age-specific suicide rate, and 3) the sex-age-specific proportional suicide rate in 1986-2005 were conducted. To demonstrate the birth cohort effect on the proportional suicide rate, the synthetic birth cohort from 1924 to 1978 from the successive cross-sectional data was constructed. Age standardized suicide rates in South Korea increased by 98% in men (from 15.3 to 30.3 per 100,000) and by 124% in women (from 5.8 to 13.0 per 100,000). In both genders, the proportional increase in suicide rates was more prominent among the younger group aged under 45, despite the absolute increase being attributed to the older group. There were distinct cohort effects underlying increasing suicide rates particularly among younger age groups. Increasing suicide rates in Korea was composed of a greater absolute increase in the older group and a greater proportional increase in the younger group.

A case-control study to assess the impact of mammographic density on breast cancer risk in women aged 40-49 at intermediate familial risk.

PubMed

Assi, Valentina; Massat, Nathalie J; Thomas, Susan; MacKay, James; Warwick, Jane; Kataoka, Masako; Warsi, Iqbal; Brentnall, Adam; Warren, Ruth; Duffy, Stephen W

2015-05-15

Mammographic density is a strong risk factor for breast cancer, but its potential application in risk management is not clear, partly due to uncertainties about its interaction with other breast cancer risk factors. We aimed to quantify the impact of mammographic density on breast cancer risk in women aged 40-49 at intermediate familial risk of breast cancer (average lifetime risk of 23%), in particular in premenopausal women, and to investigate its relationship with other breast cancer risk factors in this population. We present the results from a case-control study nested with the FH01 cohort study of 6,710 women mostly aged 40-49 at intermediate familial risk of breast cancer. One hundred and three cases of breast cancer were age-matched to one or two controls. Density was measured by semiautomated interactive thresholding. Absolute density, but not percent density, was a significant risk factor for breast cancer in this population after adjusting for area of nondense tissue (OR per 10 cm(2) = 1.07, 95% CI 1.00-1.15, p = 0.04). The effect was stronger in premenopausal women, who made up the majority of the study population. Absolute density remained a significant predictor of breast cancer risk after adjusting for age at menarche, age at first live birth, parity, past or present hormone replacement therapy, and the Tyrer-Cuzick 10-year relative risk estimate of breast cancer. Absolute density can improve breast cancer risk stratification and delineation of high-risk groups alongside the Tyrer-Cuzick 10-year relative risk estimate. © 2014 UICC.

Using a Novel Absolute Ontogenetic Age Determination Technique to Calculate the Timing of Tooth Eruption in the Saber-Toothed Cat, Smilodon fatalis.

PubMed

Wysocki, M Aleksander; Feranec, Robert S; Tseng, Zhijie Jack; Bjornsson, Christopher S

2015-01-01

Despite the superb fossil record of the saber-toothed cat, Smilodon fatalis, ontogenetic age determination for this and other ancient species remains a challenge. The present study utilizes a new technique, a combination of data from stable oxygen isotope analyses and micro-computed tomography, to establish the eruption rate for the permanent upper canines in Smilodon fatalis. The results imply an eruption rate of 6.0 millimeters per month, which is similar to a previously published average enamel growth rate of the S. fatalis upper canines (5.8 millimeters per month). Utilizing the upper canine growth rate, the upper canine eruption rate, and a previously published tooth replacement sequence, this study calculates absolute ontogenetic age ranges of tooth development and eruption in S. fatalis. The timing of tooth eruption is compared between S. fatalis and several extant conical-toothed felids, such as the African lion (Panthera leo). Results suggest that the permanent dentition of S. fatalis, except for the upper canines, was fully erupted by 14 to 22 months, and that the upper canines finished erupting at about 34 to 41 months. Based on these developmental age calculations, S. fatalis individuals less than 4 to 7 months of age were not typically preserved at Rancho La Brea. On the whole, S. fatalis appears to have had delayed dental development compared to dental development in similar-sized extant felids. This technique for absolute ontogenetic age determination can be replicated in other ancient species, including non-saber-toothed taxa, as long as the timing of growth initiation and growth rate can be determined for a specific feature, such as a tooth, and that growth period overlaps with the development of the other features under investigation.

A closer look at the increase in suicide rates in South Korea from 1986–2005

PubMed Central

Kwon, Jin-Won; Chun, Heeran; Cho, Sung-il

2009-01-01

Background Suicide rates have recently been decreasing on average among OECD countries, but increasing trends have been detected in South Korea, particularly since the 1997 economic crisis. There have been no detailed analyses about the changes of the suicide rates over time periods in Korea. We examined trends in both absolute and proportional suicide rates over the time period of economic development, crisis, and recovery (1986 – 2005) as well as in birth cohorts from 1924 to 1978. Methods We used data on total mortality and suicide rates from 1986 to 2005 published online by the Korean National Statistical Office (NSO) and extracted data for individuals under 80 years old. The analyses of the trends for 1) the sex-age-specific total mortality rate, 2) the sex-age-specific suicide rate, and 3) the sex-age-specific proportional suicide rate in 1986–2005 were conducted. To demonstrate the birth cohort effect on the proportional suicide rate, the synthetic birth cohort from 1924 to 1978 from the successive cross-sectional data was constructed. Results Age standardized suicide rates in South Korea increased by 98% in men (from 15.3 to 30.3 per 100,000) and by 124% in women (from 5.8 to 13.0 per 100,000). In both genders, the proportional increase in suicide rates was more prominent among the younger group aged under 45, despite the absolute increase being attributed to the older group. There were distinct cohort effects underlying increasing suicide rates particularly among younger age groups. Conclusion Increasing suicide rates in Korea was composed of a greater absolute increase in the older group and a greater proportional increase in the younger group. PMID:19250535

Effect of age on the performance of bispectral and entropy indices during sevoflurane pediatric anesthesia: a pharmacometric study.

PubMed

Sciusco, Alberto; Standing, Joseph F; Sheng, Yucheng; Raimondo, Pasquale; Cinnella, Gilda; Dambrosio, Michele

2017-04-01

Bispectral index (BIS) and entropy monitors have been proposed for use in children, but research has not supported their validity for infants. However, effective monitoring of young children may be even more important than for adults, to aid appropriate anesthetic dosing and reduce the chance of adverse consequences. This prospective study aimed to investigate the relationships between age and the predictive performance of BIS and entropy monitors in measuring the anesthetic drug effects within a pediatric surgery setting. We concurrently recorded BIS and entropy (SE/RE) in 48 children aged 1 month-12 years, undergoing general anesthesia with sevoflurane and fentanyl. Nonlinear mixed effects modeling was used to characterize the concentration-response relationship independently between the three monitor indicators with sevoflurane. The model's goodness-of-fit was assessed by prediction-corrected visual predictive checks. Model fit with age was evaluated using absolute conditional individual weighted residuals (|CIWRES|). The ability of BIS and entropy monitors to describe the effect of anesthesia was compared with prediction probabilities (P K ) in different age groups. Intraoperative and awakening values were compared in the age groups. The correlation between BIS and entropy was also calculated. |CIWRES| vs age showed an increasing trend in the model's accuracy for all three indicators. P K probabilities were similar for all three indicators within each age group, though lower in infants. The linear correlations between BIS and entropy in different age groups were lower for infants. Infants also tended to have lower values during surgery and at awakening than older children, while toddlers had higher values. Performance of both monitors improves as age increases. Our results suggest a need for the development of new monitor algorithms or calibration to better account for the age-specific EEG dynamics of younger patients. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

How Can Men Convicted of Violence Against Women Feel Moral While Holding Sexist and Violent Attitudes? A Homeostatic Moral Model Based on Self-Deception.

PubMed

Vecina, María L

2018-05-01

A moral model is proposed to understand how men convicted of violence against the partner can feel moral in spite of their past violent behavior and their current violent and sexist attitudes. Because of its appeal to the role of self-deception and its relationship to psychological well-being, it was hypothesized that a rigid conception about what is right and wrong (moral absolutism) is associated with ambivalent outcomes that keep their psychological system in homeostasis. The relationships were specified a priori and tested using path analysis. Several fit indices supported the adequacy of the model and showed that moral absolutism was indirectly related to both psychological well-being and a good moral self-conceptualization through self-deception. At the same time, moral absolutism was related to sexist and violent attitudes and a poor moral self-conceptualization. Future interventions could include strategies to reduce the resistances to change based on the reduction of moral absolutism and self-deception.

Risk of intracerebral haemorrhage with alteplase after acute ischaemic stroke: a secondary analysis of an individual patient data meta-analysis.

PubMed

Whiteley, William N; Emberson, Jonathan; Lees, Kennedy R; Blackwell, Lisa; Albers, Gregory; Bluhmki, Erich; Brott, Thomas; Cohen, Geoff; Davis, Stephen; Donnan, Geoffrey; Grotta, James; Howard, George; Kaste, Markku; Koga, Masatoshi; von Kummer, Rüdiger; Lansberg, Maarten G; Lindley, Richard I; Lyden, Patrick; Olivot, Jean Marc; Parsons, Mark; Toni, Danilo; Toyoda, Kazunori; Wahlgren, Nils; Wardlaw, Joanna; Del Zoppo, Gregory J; Sandercock, Peter; Hacke, Werner; Baigent, Colin

2016-08-01

Randomised trials have shown that alteplase improves the odds of a good outcome when delivered within 4·5 h of acute ischaemic stroke. However, alteplase also increases the risk of intracerebral haemorrhage; we aimed to determine the proportional and absolute effects of alteplase on the risks of intracerebral haemorrhage, mortality, and functional impairment in different types of patients. We used individual patient data from the Stroke Thrombolysis Trialists' (STT) meta-analysis of randomised trials of alteplase versus placebo (or untreated control) in patients with acute ischaemic stroke. We prespecified assessment of three classifications of intracerebral haemorrhage: type 2 parenchymal haemorrhage within 7 days; Safe Implementation of Thrombolysis in Stroke Monitoring Study's (SITS-MOST) haemorrhage within 24-36 h (type 2 parenchymal haemorrhage with a deterioration of at least 4 points on National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale [NIHSS]); and fatal intracerebral haemorrhage within 7 days. We used logistic regression, stratified by trial, to model the log odds of intracerebral haemorrhage on allocation to alteplase, treatment delay, age, and stroke severity. We did exploratory analyses to assess mortality after intracerebral haemorrhage and examine the absolute risks of intracerebral haemorrhage in the context of functional outcome at 90-180 days. Data were available from 6756 participants in the nine trials of intravenous alteplase versus control. Alteplase increased the odds of type 2 parenchymal haemorrhage (occurring in 231 [6·8%] of 3391 patients allocated alteplase vs 44 [1·3%] of 3365 patients allocated control; odds ratio [OR] 5·55 [95% CI 4·01-7·70]; absolute excess 5·5% [4·6-6·4]); of SITS-MOST haemorrhage (124 [3·7%] of 3391 vs 19 [0·6%] of 3365; OR 6·67 [4·11-10·84]; absolute excess 3·1% [2·4-3·8]); and of fatal intracerebral haemorrhage (91 [2·7%] of 3391 vs 13 [0·4%] of 3365; OR 7·14 [3·98-12·79]; absolute excess 2·3% [1·7-2·9]). However defined, the proportional increase in intracerebral haemorrhage was similar irrespective of treatment delay, age, or baseline stroke severity, but the absolute excess risk of intracerebral haemorrhage increased with increasing stroke severity: for SITS-MOST intracerebral haemorrhage the absolute excess risk ranged from 1·5% (0·8-2·6%) for strokes with NIHSS 0-4 to 3·7% (2·1-6·3%) for NIHSS 22 or more (p=0·0101). For patients treated within 4·5 h, the absolute increase in the proportion (6·8% [4·0% to 9·5%]) achieving a modified Rankin Scale of 0 or 1 (excellent outcome) exceeded the absolute increase in risk of fatal intracerebral haemorrhage (2·2% [1·5% to 3·0%]) and the increased risk of any death within 90 days (0·9% [-1·4% to 3·2%]). Among patients given alteplase, the net outcome is predicted both by time to treatment (with faster time increasing the proportion achieving an excellent outcome) and stroke severity (with a more severe stroke increasing the absolute risk of intracerebral haemorrhage). Although, within 4·5 h of stroke, the probability of achieving an excellent outcome with alteplase treatment exceeds the risk of death, early treatment is especially important for patients with severe stroke. UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, University of Glasgow, University of Edinburgh. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Crater-based dating of geological units on Mars: methods and application for the new global geological map

USGS Publications Warehouse

Platz, Thomas; Michael, Gregory; Tanaka, Kenneth L.; Skinner, James A.; Fortezzo, Corey M.

2013-01-01

The new, post-Viking generation of Mars orbital imaging and topographical data provide significant higher-resolution details of surface morphologies, which induced a new effort to photo-geologically map the surface of Mars at 1:20,000,000 scale. Although from unit superposition relations a relative stratigraphical framework can be compiled, it was the ambition of this mapping project to provide absolute unit age constraints through crater statistics. In this study, the crater counting method is described in detail, starting with the selection of image data, type locations (both from the mapper’s and crater counter’s perspectives) and the identification of impact craters. We describe the criteria used to validate and analyse measured crater populations, and to derive and interpret crater model ages. We provide examples of how geological information about the unit’s resurfacing history can be retrieved from crater size–frequency distributions. Three cases illustrate short-, intermediate, and long-term resurfacing histories. In addition, we introduce an interpretation-independent visualisation of the crater resurfacing history that uses the reduction of the crater population in a given size range relative to the expected population given the observed crater density at larger sizes. From a set of potential type locations, 48 areas from 22 globally mapped units were deemed suitable for crater counting. Because resurfacing ages were derived from crater statistics, these secondary ages were used to define the unit age rather than the base age. Using the methods described herein, we modelled ages that are consistent with the interpreted stratigraphy. Our derived model ages allow age assignments to be included in unit names. We discuss the limitations of using the crater dating technique for global-scale geological mapping. Finally, we present recommendations for the documentation and presentation of crater statistics in publications.

Relative ages of lava flows at Alba Patera, Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schneeberger, Dale M.; Pieri, David C.

1987-01-01

Many large lava flows on the flanks of Alba Patera are astonishing in their volume and length. As a suite, these flows suggest tremendously voluminous and sustained eruptions, and provide dimensional boundary conditions typically a factor of 100 larger than terrestrial flows. One of the most striking features associated with Alba Patera is the large, radially oriented lava flows that exhibit a variety of flow morphologies. These include sheet flows, tube fed and tube channel flows, and undifferentiated flows. Three groups of flows were studied; flows on the northwest flank, southeast flank, and the intracaldera region. The lava flows discussed probably were erupted as a group during the same major volcanic episode as suggested by the data presented. Absolute ages are poorly constrained for both the individual flows and shield, due in part to disagreement as to which absolute age curve is representative for Mars. A relative age sequence is implied but lacks precision due to the closeness of the size frequency curves.

Thyroid neoplasia following low-dose radiation in childhood

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ron, E.; Modan, B.; Preston, D.

1989-12-01

The thyroid gland is highly sensitive to the carcinogenic effects of ionizing radiation. Previously, we reported a significant increase of thyroid cancer and adenomas among 10,834 persons in Israel who received radiotherapy to the scalp for ringworm. These findings have now been extended with further follow-up and revised dosimetry. Overall, 98 thyroid tumors were identified among the exposed and 57 among 10,834 nonexposed matched population and 5392 sibling comparison subjects. An estimated thyroid dose of 9 cGy was linked to a fourfold (95% Cl = 2.3-7.9) increase of malignant tumors and a twofold (95% Cl = 1.3-3.0) increase of benignmore » tumors. The dose-response relationship was consistent with linearity. Age was an important modifier of risk with those exposed under 5 years being significantly more prone to develop thyroid tumors than older children. The pattern of radiation risk over time could be described on the basis of a constant multiplication of the background rate, and an absolute risk model was not compatible with the observed data. Overall, the excess relative risk per cGy for thyroid cancer development after childhood exposure is estimated as 0.3, and the absolute excess risk as 13 per 10(6) PY-cGy. For benign tumors the estimated excess relative risk was 0.1 per cGy and the absolute risk was 15 per 10(6) PY-cGy.« less

A simple condition for uniqueness of the absolutely continuous ergodic measure and its application to economic models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sato, Kenji; Yano, Makoto

2012-09-01

Unique existence of the absolutely continuous ergodic measure, or existence of ergodic chaos (in a strong sense), has been considered important in economics since it explains the mechanism underlying economic fluctuations. In the present study, a simple sufficient condition for ergodic chaos is proved and applied to economic models.

Stimulus probability effects in absolute identification.

PubMed

Kent, Christopher; Lamberts, Koen

2016-05-01

This study investigated the effect of stimulus presentation probability on accuracy and response times in an absolute identification task. Three schedules of presentation were used to investigate the interaction between presentation probability and stimulus position within the set. Data from individual participants indicated strong effects of presentation probability on both proportion correct and response times. The effects were moderated by the ubiquitous stimulus position effect. The accuracy and response time data were predicted by an exemplar-based model of perceptual cognition (Kent & Lamberts, 2005). The bow in discriminability was also attenuated when presentation probability for middle items was relatively high, an effect that will constrain future model development. The study provides evidence for item-specific learning in absolute identification. Implications for other theories of absolute identification are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

The 0.4-Msun eclipsing binary CU Cancri. Absolute dimensions, comparison with evolutionary models and possible evidence for a circumstellar dust disk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribas, I.

2003-01-01

Photometric observations in the R and I bands of the detached M-type double-lined eclipsing binary CU Cnc have been acquired and analysed. The photometric elements obtained from the analysis of the light curves have been combined with an existing spectroscopic solution to yield high-precision (errors la 2%) absolute dimensions: MA=0.4333+/-0.0017 Msun, MB= 0.3980+/-0.0014 Msun, RA=0.4317+/-0.0052 Rsun, and RB=0.3908+/-0.0094 Rsun. The mean effective temperature of the system has been estimated to be Teff= 3140+/-150 K by comparing multi-band photometry (optical and infrared) with synthetic colors computed from state-of-the-art model atmospheres. Additionally, we have been able to obtain an estimate for the age ( ~ 320 Myr) and chemical composition ([Fe/H]~ 0.0) of the binary system through its membership of the Castor moving group. With all these observational constraints, we have carried out a critical test of recent stellar models for low-mass stars. The comparison reveals that most evolutionary models underestimate the radius of the stars by as much as 10%, thus confirming the trend observed by Torres & Ribas (\\cite{TR02}) for YY Gem and V818 Tau. In the mass-absolute magnitude diagram, CU Cnc is observed to be dimmer than other stars of the same mass and this makes the comparison with stellar models not so compelling. After ruling out a number of different scenarios, the apparent faintness of CU Cnc can be explained if its components are some 10% cooler than similar-mass stars or if there is some source of circumstellar dust absorption. The latter could be a tantalizing indirect evidence for a coplanar (Vega-like) dusty disk around this relatively young M-type binary. Tables 1 and 2 are only available in electronic form at the CDS via anonymous ftp to cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (130.79.125.5) or via http://cdsweb.u-strasbg.fr/cgi-bin/qcat?J/A+A/398/239}

A4 flavour model for Dirac neutrinos: Type I and inverse seesaw

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borah, Debasish; Karmakar, Biswajit

2018-05-01

We propose two different seesaw models namely, type I and inverse seesaw to realise light Dirac neutrinos within the framework of A4 discrete flavour symmetry. The additional fields and their transformations under the flavour symmetries are chosen in such a way that naturally predicts the hierarchies of different elements of the seesaw mass matrices in these two types of seesaw mechanisms. For generic choices of flavon alignments, both the models predict normal hierarchical light neutrino masses with the atmospheric mixing angle in the lower octant. Apart from predicting interesting correlations between different neutrino parameters as well as between neutrino and model parameters, the model also predicts the leptonic Dirac CP phase to lie in a specific range - π / 3 to π / 3. While the type I seesaw model predicts smaller values of absolute neutrino mass, the inverse seesaw predictions for the absolute neutrino masses can saturate the cosmological upper bound on sum of absolute neutrino masses for certain choices of model parameters.

Utility of the Seattle Heart Failure Model in patients with advanced heart failure.

PubMed

Kalogeropoulos, Andreas P; Georgiopoulou, Vasiliki V; Giamouzis, Grigorios; Smith, Andrew L; Agha, Syed A; Waheed, Sana; Laskar, Sonjoy; Puskas, John; Dunbar, Sandra; Vega, David; Levy, Wayne C; Butler, Javed

2009-01-27

The aim of this study was to validate the Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM) in patients with advanced heart failure (HF). The SHFM was developed primarily from clinical trial databases and extrapolated the benefit of interventions from published data. We evaluated the discrimination and calibration of SHFM in 445 advanced HF patients (age 52 +/- 12 years, 68.5% male, 52.4% white, ejection fraction 18 +/- 8%) referred for cardiac transplantation. The primary end point was death (n = 92), urgent transplantation (n = 14), or left ventricular assist device (LVAD) implantation (n = 3); a secondary analysis was performed on mortality alone. Patients were receiving optimal therapy (angiotensin-II modulation 92.8%, beta-blockers 91.5%, aldosterone antagonists 46.3%), and 71.0% had an implantable device (defibrillator 30.4%, biventricular pacemaker 3.4%, combined 37.3%). During a median follow-up of 21 months, 109 patients (24.5%) had an event. Although discrimination was adequate (c-statistic >0.7), the SHFM overall underestimated absolute risk (observed vs. predicted event rate: 11.0% vs. 9.2%, 21.0% vs. 16.6%, and 27.9% vs. 22.8% at 1, 2, and 3 years, respectively). Risk underprediction was more prominent in patients with an implantable device. The SHFM had different calibration properties in white versus black patients, leading to net underestimation of absolute risk in blacks. Race-specific recalibration improved the accuracy of predictions. When analysis was restricted to mortality, the SHFM exhibited better performance. In patients with advanced HF, the SHFM offers adequate discrimination, but absolute risk is underestimated, especially in blacks and in patients with devices. This is more prominent when including transplantation and LVAD implantation as an end point.

The application of multilevel modeling in the analysis of longitudinal periodontal data--part I: absolute levels of disease.

PubMed

Tu, Yu-Kang; Gilthorpe, Mark S; Griffiths, Gareth S; Maddick, Ian H; Eaton, Kenneth A; Johnson, Newell W

2004-01-01

Statistical analyses of periodontal data that average site measurements to subject mean values are unable to explore the site-specific nature of periodontal diseases. Multilevel modeling (MLM) overcomes this, taking hierarchical structure into account. MLM was used to investigate longitudinal relationships between the outcomes of lifetime cumulative attachment loss (LCAL) and probing depth (PD) in relation to potential risk factors for periodontal disease progression. One hundred males (mean age 17 years) received a comprehensive periodontal examination at baseline and at 12 and 30 months. The resulting data were analyzed in two stages. In stage one (reported here), the absolute levels of disease were analyzed in relation to potential risk factors; in stage two (reported in a second paper), changes in disease patterns over time were analyzed in relation to the same risk factors. Each approach yielded substantially different insights. For absolute levels of disease, subject-level risk factors (covariates) had limited prediction for LCAL/PD throughout the 30-month observation period. Tooth position demonstrated a near linear relationship for both outcomes, with disease increasing from anterior to posterior teeth. Sites with subgingival calculus and bleeding on probing demonstrated more LCAL and PD, and supragingival calculus had an apparently protective effect. Covariates had more "explanatory power" for the variation in PD than for the variation in LCAL, suggesting that LCAL and PD might be generally associated with a different profile of covariates. This study provides, for a relatively young cohort, considerable insights into the factors associated with early-life periodontal disease and its progression at all levels of the natural hierarchy of sites within teeth within subjects.

Using Multivariate Regression Model with Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) to Predict the Incidence of Xerostomia after Intensity-Modulated Radiotherapy for Head and Neck Cancer

PubMed Central

Ting, Hui-Min; Chang, Liyun; Huang, Yu-Jie; Wu, Jia-Ming; Wang, Hung-Yu; Horng, Mong-Fong; Chang, Chun-Ming; Lan, Jen-Hong; Huang, Ya-Yu; Fang, Fu-Min; Leung, Stephen Wan

2014-01-01

Purpose The aim of this study was to develop a multivariate logistic regression model with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) to make valid predictions about the incidence of moderate-to-severe patient-rated xerostomia among head and neck cancer (HNC) patients treated with IMRT. Methods and Materials Quality of life questionnaire datasets from 206 patients with HNC were analyzed. The European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer QLQ-H&N35 and QLQ-C30 questionnaires were used as the endpoint evaluation. The primary endpoint (grade 3+ xerostomia) was defined as moderate-to-severe xerostomia at 3 (XER3m) and 12 months (XER12m) after the completion of IMRT. Normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models were developed. The optimal and suboptimal numbers of prognostic factors for a multivariate logistic regression model were determined using the LASSO with bootstrapping technique. Statistical analysis was performed using the scaled Brier score, Nagelkerke R2, chi-squared test, Omnibus, Hosmer-Lemeshow test, and the AUC. Results Eight prognostic factors were selected by LASSO for the 3-month time point: Dmean-c, Dmean-i, age, financial status, T stage, AJCC stage, smoking, and education. Nine prognostic factors were selected for the 12-month time point: Dmean-i, education, Dmean-c, smoking, T stage, baseline xerostomia, alcohol abuse, family history, and node classification. In the selection of the suboptimal number of prognostic factors by LASSO, three suboptimal prognostic factors were fine-tuned by Hosmer-Lemeshow test and AUC, i.e., Dmean-c, Dmean-i, and age for the 3-month time point. Five suboptimal prognostic factors were also selected for the 12-month time point, i.e., Dmean-i, education, Dmean-c, smoking, and T stage. The overall performance for both time points of the NTCP model in terms of scaled Brier score, Omnibus, and Nagelkerke R2 was satisfactory and corresponded well with the expected values. Conclusions Multivariate NTCP models with LASSO can be used to predict patient-rated xerostomia after IMRT. PMID:24586971

Using multivariate regression model with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) to predict the incidence of Xerostomia after intensity-modulated radiotherapy for head and neck cancer.

PubMed

Lee, Tsair-Fwu; Chao, Pei-Ju; Ting, Hui-Min; Chang, Liyun; Huang, Yu-Jie; Wu, Jia-Ming; Wang, Hung-Yu; Horng, Mong-Fong; Chang, Chun-Ming; Lan, Jen-Hong; Huang, Ya-Yu; Fang, Fu-Min; Leung, Stephen Wan

2014-01-01

The aim of this study was to develop a multivariate logistic regression model with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) to make valid predictions about the incidence of moderate-to-severe patient-rated xerostomia among head and neck cancer (HNC) patients treated with IMRT. Quality of life questionnaire datasets from 206 patients with HNC were analyzed. The European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer QLQ-H&N35 and QLQ-C30 questionnaires were used as the endpoint evaluation. The primary endpoint (grade 3(+) xerostomia) was defined as moderate-to-severe xerostomia at 3 (XER3m) and 12 months (XER12m) after the completion of IMRT. Normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models were developed. The optimal and suboptimal numbers of prognostic factors for a multivariate logistic regression model were determined using the LASSO with bootstrapping technique. Statistical analysis was performed using the scaled Brier score, Nagelkerke R(2), chi-squared test, Omnibus, Hosmer-Lemeshow test, and the AUC. Eight prognostic factors were selected by LASSO for the 3-month time point: Dmean-c, Dmean-i, age, financial status, T stage, AJCC stage, smoking, and education. Nine prognostic factors were selected for the 12-month time point: Dmean-i, education, Dmean-c, smoking, T stage, baseline xerostomia, alcohol abuse, family history, and node classification. In the selection of the suboptimal number of prognostic factors by LASSO, three suboptimal prognostic factors were fine-tuned by Hosmer-Lemeshow test and AUC, i.e., Dmean-c, Dmean-i, and age for the 3-month time point. Five suboptimal prognostic factors were also selected for the 12-month time point, i.e., Dmean-i, education, Dmean-c, smoking, and T stage. The overall performance for both time points of the NTCP model in terms of scaled Brier score, Omnibus, and Nagelkerke R(2) was satisfactory and corresponded well with the expected values. Multivariate NTCP models with LASSO can be used to predict patient-rated xerostomia after IMRT.

Mother's education and the risk of preterm and small for gestational age birth: a DRIVERS meta-analysis of 12 European cohorts.

PubMed

Ruiz, Milagros; Goldblatt, Peter; Morrison, Joana; Kukla, Lubomír; Švancara, Jan; Riitta-Järvelin, Marjo; Taanila, Anja; Saurel-Cubizolles, Marie-Josèphe; Lioret, Sandrine; Bakoula, Chryssa; Veltsista, Alexandra; Porta, Daniela; Forastiere, Francesco; van Eijsden, Manon; Vrijkotte, Tanja G M; Eggesbø, Merete; White, Richard A; Barros, Henrique; Correia, Sofia; Vrijheid, Martine; Torrent, Maties; Rebagliato, Marisa; Larrañaga, Isabel; Ludvigsson, Johnny; Olsen Faresjö, Åshild; Hryhorczuk, Daniel; Antipkin, Youriy; Marmot, Michael; Pikhart, Hynek

2015-09-01

A healthy start to life is a major priority in efforts to reduce health inequalities across Europe, with important implications for the health of future generations. There is limited combined evidence on inequalities in health among newborns across a range of European countries. Prospective cohort data of 75 296 newborns from 12 European countries were used. Maternal education, preterm and small for gestational age births were determined at baseline along with covariate data. Regression models were estimated within each cohort and meta-analyses were conducted to compare and measure heterogeneity between cohorts. Mother's education was linked to an appreciable risk of preterm and small for gestational age (SGA) births across 12 European countries. The excess risk of preterm births associated with low maternal education was 1.48 (1.29 to 1.69) and 1.84 (0.99 to 2.69) in relative and absolute terms (Relative/Slope Index of Inequality, RII/SII) for all cohorts combined. Similar effects were found for SGA births, but absolute inequalities were greater, with an SII score of 3.64 (1.74 to 5.54). Inequalities at birth were strong in the Netherlands, the UK, Sweden and Spain and marginal in other countries studied. This study highlights the value of comparative cohort analysis to better understand the relationship between maternal education and markers of fetal growth in different settings across Europe. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Comparison of Mammographic Density Assessed as Volumes and Areas among Women Undergoing Diagnostic Image-Guided Breast Biopsy

PubMed Central

Gierach, Gretchen L.; Geller, Berta M.; Shepherd, John A.; Patel, Deesha A.; Vacek, Pamela M.; Weaver, Donald L.; Chicoine, Rachael E.; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.; Fan, Bo; Mahmoudzadeh, Amir Pasha; Wang, Jeff; Johnson, Jason M.; Herschorn, Sally D.; Brinton, Louise A.; Sherman, Mark E.

2014-01-01

Background Mammographic density (MD), the area of non-fatty appearing tissue divided by total breast area, is a strong breast cancer risk factor. Most MD analyses have employed visual categorizations or computer-assisted quantification, which ignore breast thickness. We explored MD volume and area, using a volumetric approach previously validated as predictive of breast cancer risk, in relation to risk factors among women undergoing breast biopsy. Methods Among 413 primarily white women, ages 40–65, undergoing diagnostic breast biopsies between 2007–2010 at an academic facility in Vermont, MD volume (cm3) was quantified in cranio-caudal views of the breast contralateral to the biopsy target using a density phantom, while MD area (cm2) was measured on the same digital mammograms using thresholding software. Risk factor associations with continuous MD measurements were evaluated using linear regression. Results Percent MD volume and area were correlated (r=0.81) and strongly and inversely associated with age, body mass index (BMI), and menopause. Both measures were inversely associated with smoking and positively associated with breast biopsy history. Absolute MD measures were correlated (r=0.46) and inversely related to age and menopause. Whereas absolute dense area was inversely associated with BMI, absolute dense volume was positively associated. Conclusions Volume and area MD measures exhibit some overlap in risk factor associations, but divergence as well, particularly for BMI. Impact Findings suggest that volume and area density measures differ in subsets of women; notably, among obese women, absolute density was higher with volumetric methods, suggesting that breast cancer risk assessments may vary for these techniques. PMID:25139935

Has the National Cancer Screening Program reduced income inequalities in screening attendance in South Korea?

PubMed

Kim, Sujin; Kwon, Soonman; Subramanian, S V

2015-11-01

In 1999, the Korean government introduced the National Cancer Screening Program (NCSP) to increase the cancer-screening rate, particularly among the low-income population. This study investigates how the NCSP has decreased both relative and absolute income inequalities in the uptake of cancer screening in South Korea. A nationally representative cross-sectional repeated data from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1998-2012, managed by the Ministry of Health and Welfare, was used to assess changes over time and the extent of discontinuity at the NCSP-recommended initiation age in the uptake of screening for breast, colorectal, and gastric cancers across income quartiles. Relative inequalities in the uptake of screening for all cancers decreased significantly over the policy period. Absolute inequalities did not change for most cancers, but marginally increased from 9 to 14% points in the uptake of screening for colorectal cancer among men. At the recommended initiation age, absolute inequalities did not change for breast and colorectal cancers but increased from 5 to 16% points for gastric cancer, for which relative inequality significantly decreased. The NCSP, which reduced out-of-pocket payment, may not decrease absolute gap although it leads to overall increases in the uptake of cancer screening and decreases in relative inequalities. Further investigations are needed to understand barriers that prevent the low-income population from attending cancer screening.

Longitudinal Changes in AbsoluteVO2peak, Physical Activity Level, Body Mass Index, and Overweightedness among Adolescents in Vocational and Non-Vocational Studies

PubMed Central

Lagestad, Pål; Floan, Oddbjørn; Moa, Ivar Fossland

2017-01-01

The purpose of the study was to examine differences in physical activity level, physical fitness, body mass index, and overweight among adolescents in vocational and non-vocational studies, at the age of 14, 16, and 19, using a 5-year longitudinal design. Students in sport studies had the highest absoluteVO2peak and higher physical activity levels, than students in vocational subjects and students with a specialization in general studies. However, there were no significant differences between students in vocational subjects and students with a specialization in general studies according to absoluteVO2peak and physical activity levels. Students in vocational subjects were significantly more overweight/obese at 19 years of age, compared with the other students. Our findings support previous research pointing to overweightedness as being more widespread among adolescents in vocational programs than in non-vocational programs. However, differences in the physical activity level and physical fitness do not seem to explain these differences. PMID:28871279

Relative differences in strength and power from slow to fast isokinetic velocities may reflect dynapenia.

PubMed

Jenkins, Nathaniel D M; Housh, Terry J; Palmer, Ty B; Cochrane, Kristen C; Bergstrom, Haley C; Johnson, Glen O; Schmidt, Richard J; Cramer, Joel T

2015-07-01

We compared absolute and normalized values for peak torque (PT), mean power (MP), rate of velocity development, and electromyography (EMG) amplitude during maximal isometric and concentric isokinetic leg extension muscle actions, as well as the %decrease in PT and %increase in MP from 1.05 to 3.14 rad·s(-1) in younger versus older men. Measurements were performed twice for reliability. Isokinetic measurements were normalized to the isometric muscle actions. Absolute isometric PT, isokinetic PT and MP, and EMG amplitudes at 1.05 and 3.14 rad·s(-1) were greater in the younger men, although normalizing to isometric PT eliminated the age differences. The older men exhibited greater %decrease in PT (37.2% vs. 31.3%) and lower %increase in MP (87.6% vs. 126.4%) regardless of normalization. Normalization eliminated absolute differences in isokinetic strength and power, but the relative differences from slow to fast velocities may reflect dynapenia characterized by age-related decreases in fast-twitch fiber function. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Demographic Changes in Germany up to 2060 – Consequences for Blood Donation

PubMed Central

Ehling, Manfred; Pötzsch, Olga

2010-01-01

Summary This paper outlines the results of a most recent model calculation regarding the structure and development of Germany's population by 2060 with the aim to provide basic demographic data for the future provision of blood components to the population. Firstly, the paper describes the assumptions on fertility, life expectancy and Germany's balance of immigration and emigration which formed the basis for the projection. The following part discusses the results, quantifies future changes in the size and age structure of Germany's population, and illustrates the effects of demographic trends which can be identified from today's point of view. The number of potential blood donors will decline in absolute and relative terms (related to the total population and the age group of ‘non-donors’) in the future. This holds true for both the age bracket of 18 to 68 years and the alternatively chosen age group of 17 to 70 years. Depending on the variant, the population of blood donation age will decrease by one quarter to one third until 2060. PMID:20737016

Birth characteristics and all-cause mortality: a sibling analysis using the Uppsala birth cohort multigenerational study.

PubMed

Juárez, S; Goodman, A; De Stavola, B; Koupil, I

2016-08-01

This paper investigates the association between perinatal health and all-cause mortality for specific age intervals, assessing the contribution of maternal socioeconomic characteristics and the presence of maternal-level confounding. Our study is based on a cohort of 12,564 singletons born between 1915 and 1929 at the Uppsala University Hospital. We fitted Cox regression models to estimate age-varying hazard ratios of all-cause mortality for absolute and relative birth weight and for gestational age. We found that associations with mortality vary by age and according to the measure under scrutiny, with effects being concentrated in infancy, childhood or early adult life. For example, the effect of low birth weight was greatest in the first year of life and then continued up to 44 years of age (HR between 2.82 and 1.51). These associations were confirmed in within-family analyses, which provided no evidence of residual confounding by maternal characteristics. Our findings support the interpretation that policies oriented towards improving population health should invest in birth outcomes and hence in maternal health.

Projections of Trends in Overweight in the Elderly Population in Germany until 2030 and International Comparison

PubMed Central

Westphal, Christina; Doblhammer, Gabriele

2014-01-01

Background/Aims To project the numbers of pre-obese (BMI 25-29.99 kg/m²) and obese (BMI > 30 kg/m²) men and women aged 50+ in Germany until 2030 and to compare our estimates with actual figures from four European countries and the USA. Estimates are based on six scenarios encompassing improvements as well as worsenings of current trends. Methods We used pooled data from 1999 to 2009 of the German Microcensus (n = 1,472,547). Using multinomial logistic regression models we estimated age-specific probabilities of pre-obesity and obesity and applied them to the 12th population projection of the Federal Statistical Office. Results We project overall increases in absolute numbers of pre-obesity ranging between 14.2 and 18.2 million. However, the prevalence of pre-obesity is likely to decrease slightly. In contrast, absolute and relative numbers of obesity are projected to increase, ranging between 7.2 and 15.8 million. The international comparison revealed that pre-obesity prevalences will remain among the highest in Germany, while obesity is projected to fall below current levels of the UK or the USA. Conclusion Pre-obesity and, particularly, obesity are likely to become a more prominent health issue in Germany in the near future which could have large repercussions for the public health system. PMID:24525549

Inequalities in health by social class dimensions in European countries of different political traditions.

PubMed

Espelt, Albert; Borrell, Carme; Rodríguez-Sanz, Maica; Muntaner, Carles; Pasarín, M Isabel; Benach, Joan; Schaap, Maartje; Kunst, Anton E; Navarro, Vicente

2008-10-01

To compare inequalities in self-perceived health in the population older than 50 years, in 2004, using Wright's social class dimensions, in nine European countries grouped in three political traditions (Social democracy, Christian democracy and Late democracies). Cross-sectional design, including data of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (Sweden, Denmark, Austria, France, Germany, The Netherlands, Spain, Italy and Greece). The population aged from 50 to 74 years was included. Absolute and relative social class dimension inequalities in poor self-reported health and long-term illness were determined for each sex and political tradition. Relative inequalities were assessed by fitting Poisson regression models with robust variance estimators. Absolute and relative health inequalities by social class dimensions are found in the three political traditions, but these differences are more marked in Late democracies and mainly among women. For example the prevalence ratio of poor self-perceived health comparing poorly educated women with highly educated women, was 1.75 (95% CI: 1.39-2.21) in Late democracies and 1.36 (95% CI: 1.21-1.52) in Social democracies. The prevalence differences were 24.2 and 13.7%, respectively. This study is one of the first to show the impact of different political traditions on social class inequalities in health. These results emphasize the need to evaluate the impact of the implementation of public policies.

The incidence of leukemia, lymphoma, and multiple myeloma among atomic bomb survivors: 1950 – 2001

PubMed Central

Hsu, Wan-Ling; Preston, Dale L.; Soda, Midori; Sugiyama, Hiromi; Funamoto, Sachiyo; Kodama, Kazunori; Kimura, Akiro; Kamada, Nanao; Dohy, Hiroo; Tomonaga, Masao; Iwanaga, Masako; Miyazaki, Yasushi; Cullings, Harry M.; Suyama, Akihiko; Ozasa, Kotaro; Shore, Roy E.; Mabuchi, Kiyohiko

2013-01-01

A marked increase in leukemia risks was the first and most striking late effect of radiation exposure seen among the Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bomb survivors. This paper presents analyses of radiation effects on leukemia, lymphoma, and multiple myeloma incidence in the Life Span Study cohort of atomic bomb survivors updated 14 years since the last comprehensive report on these malignancies. These analyses make use of tumor- and leukemia-registry-based incidence data on 113,011 cohort members with 3.6 million person-years of follow-up from late 1950 through the end of 2001. In addition to a detailed analysis of the excess risk for all leukemias other than chronic lymphocytic leukemia or adult T-cell leukemia (neither of which appear to be radiation-related), we present results for the major hematopoietic malignancy types: acute lymphoblastic leukemia, chronic lymphocytic leukemia, acute myeloid leukemia, chronic myeloid leukemia, adult T-cell leukemia, Hodgkin and non-Hodgkin lymphoma, and multiple myeloma. Poisson regression methods were used to characterize the shape of the radiation dose response relationship and, to the extent the data allowed, to investigate variation in the excess risks with sex, attained age, exposure age, and time since exposure. In contrast to the previous report that focused on describing excess absolute rates, we considered both excess absolute rate (EAR) and excess relative risk (ERR) models and found that ERR models can often provide equivalent and sometimes more parsimonious descriptions of the excess risk than EAR models. The leukemia results indicated that there was a non-linear dose response for leukemias other than chronic lymphocytic leukemia or adult T-cell leukemia, which varied markedly with time and age at exposure, with much of the evidence for this non-linearity arising from the acute myeloid leukemia risks. Although the leukemia excess risks generally declined with attained age or time since exposure, there was evidence that the radiation-associated excess leukemia risks, especially for acute myeloid leukemia, had persisted throughout the follow-up period out to – 55 years after the bombings. As in earlier analyses, there was a weak suggestion of a radiation dose response for non-Hodgkin lymphoma among men with no indication of such an effect among women. There was no evidence of radiation-associated excess risks for either Hodgkin lymphoma or multiple myeloma. PMID:23398354

Effects of biological and behavioral factors on urinary arsenic ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Abstract In older men and women who were long-term residents of Churchill County, Nevada, we examined the relation between arsenic exposure from home tap water and urinary levels of inorganic arsenic and its methylated metabolites. Over a wide exposure range (up to 1850 ug of arsenic per liter), urinary concentrations of inorganic, monomethylated, and dimethylated arsenicals strongly correlated with home tap water arsenic concentrations. However, percentages of summed urinary concentrations of inorganic, monomethylated, and dimethylated arsenicals accounted for by each arsenical species were unaffected by arsenic concentration in home tap water, suggesting thc1t capacity for formation and excretion of methylated metabolites was not exceeded. Biological factors (gender, age, body mass index, and genotype) and a behavioral factor (smoking) influenced absolute and relative levels of arsenicals in urine. A multivariate regression model showed that both biological and behavioral factors were significant predictors of absolute and relative concentrations of inorganic arsenic and its methylated metabolites in urine. These findings suggest that analyses of dose-response relations in arsenic-exposed populations should account for these biological and behavioral factors. Furthermore, evidence of significant effects of these factors on arsenic metabolism may support mode of action studies in appropriate experimental models. Running title- Methylated arsenicals as urinary b

The effects of maximising the UK's tobacco control score on inequalities in smoking prevalence and premature coronary heart disease mortality: a modelling study.

PubMed

Allen, Kirk; Kypridemos, Chris; Hyseni, Lirije; Gilmore, Anna B; Diggle, Peter; Whitehead, Margaret; Capewell, Simon; O'Flaherty, Martin

2016-04-01

Smoking is more than twice as common among the most disadvantaged socioeconomic groups in England compared to the most affluent and is a major contributor to health-related inequalities. The United Kingdom (UK) has comprehensive smoking policies in place: regular tax increases; public information campaigns; on-pack pictorial health warnings; advertising bans; cessation; and smoke-free areas. This is confirmed from its high Tobacco Control Scale (TCS) score, an expert-developed instrument for assessing the strength of tobacco control policies. However, room remains for improvement in tobacco control policies. Our aim was to evaluate the cumulative effect on smoking prevalence of improving all TCS components in England, stratified by socioeconomic circumstance. Effect sizes and socioeconomic gradients for all six types of smoking policy in the UK setting were adapted from systematic reviews, or if not available, from primary studies. We used the IMPACT Policy Model to link predicted changes in smoking prevalence to changes in premature coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality for ages 35-74. Health outcomes with a time horizon of 2025 were stratified by quintiles of socioeconomic circumstance. The model estimated that improving all smoking policies to achieve a maximum score on the TCS might reduce smoking prevalence in England by 3% (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1-4%), from 20 to 17% in absolute terms, or by 15% in relative terms (95% CI: 7-21%). The most deprived quintile would benefit more, with absolute reductions from 31 to 25%, or a 6% reduction (95% CI: 2-7%). There would be some 3300 (95% CI: 2200-4700) fewer premature CHD deaths between 2015-2025, a 2% (95% CI: 1.4-2.9%) reduction. The most disadvantaged quintile would benefit more, reducing absolute inequality of CHD mortality by about 4 % (95% CI: 3-9%). Further, feasible improvements in tobacco control policy could substantially improve population health, and reduce health-related inequalities in England.

Demand forecasting of electricity in Indonesia with limited historical data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dwi Kartikasari, Mujiati; Rohmad Prayogi, Arif

2018-03-01

Demand forecasting of electricity is an important activity for electrical agents to know the description of electricity demand in future. Prediction of demand electricity can be done using time series models. In this paper, double moving average model, Holt’s exponential smoothing model, and grey model GM(1,1) are used to predict electricity demand in Indonesia under the condition of limited historical data. The result shows that grey model GM(1,1) has the smallest value of MAE (mean absolute error), MSE (mean squared error), and MAPE (mean absolute percentage error).

A Novel Method for Age Estimation in Solar-Type Stars Through GALEX FUV Magnitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, Kelly; Subramonian, Arjun; Smith, Graeme; Shouru Shieh

2018-01-01

Utilizing an inverse association known to exist between Galaxy Evolution Explorer (GALEX) far ultraviolet (FUV) magnitudes and the chromospheric activity of F, G, and K dwarfs, we explored a method of age estimation in solar-type stars through GALEX FUV magnitudes. Sample solar-type star data were collected from refereed publications and filtered by B-V and absolute visual magnitude to ensure similarities in temperature and luminosity to the Sun. We determined FUV-B and calculated a residual index Q for all the stars, using the temperature-induced upper bound on FUV-B as the fiducial. Plotting current age estimates for the stars against Q, we discovered a strong and significant association between the variables. By applying a log-linear transformation to the data to produce a strong correlation between Q and loge Age, we confirmed the association between Q and age to be exponential. Thus, least-squares regression was used to generate an exponential model relating Q to age in solar-type stars, which can be used by astronomers. The Q-method of stellar age estimation is simple and more efficient than existing spectroscopic methods and has applications to galactic archaeology and stellar chemical composition analysis.

How do we know about Earth's history? Constructing the story of Earth's geologic history by collecting and interpreting evidence based scenarios.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruthford, Steven; DeBari, Susan; Linneman, Scott; Boriss, Miguel; Chesbrough, John; Holmes, Randall; Thibault, Allison

2013-04-01

Beginning in 2003, faculty from Western Washington University, Skagit Valley Community College, local public school teachers, and area tribal college members created an innovative, inquiry based undergraduate geology curriculum. The curriculum, titled "Energy and Matter in Earth's Systems," was supported through various grants and partnerships, including Math and Science Partnership and Noyce Teacher Scholarship grants from the National Science Foundation. During 2011, the authors wrote a geologic time unit for the curriculum. The unit is titled, "How Do We Know About Earth's History?" and has students actively investigate the concepts related to geologic time and methods for determining age. Starting with reflection and assessment of personal misconceptions called "Initial Ideas," students organize a series of events into a timeline. The unit then focuses on the concepts of relative dating, biostratigraphy, and historical attempts at absolute dating, including uniformitarianism, catastrophism, Halley and Joly's Salinity hypothesis, and Kelvin's Heat Loss model. With limited lecture and text, students then dive into current understandings of the age of the Earth, which include radioactive decay rates and radiometric dating. Finally, using their newfound understanding, students investigate a number of real world scenarios and create a timeline of events related to the geologic history of the Earth. The unit concludes with activities that reinforce the Earth's absolute age and direct students to summarize what they have learned by reorganizing the timeline from the "Initial Ideas" and sharing with the class. This presentation will include the lesson materials and findings from one activity titled, "The Earth's Story." The activity is located midway through the unit and begins with reflection on the question, "What are the major events in the Earth's history and when did they happen?" Students are directed to revisit the timeline of events from the "Initial Ideas" activity at the beginning of the unit. After the review and reflection, students collect and interpret six evidence based scenarios dealing with the absolute ages of various rocks, including moon and meteorite samples, microfossil data, banded iron formations, plant and animal fossils, tectonic movement, extinction events, and human migration. The scenarios are dated and allow students to have a more complete view of geologic time. Using this more complete view, students are prompted to revisit and reorganize the timeline from the "Initial Ideas." By the end of the lesson, students will demonstrate a more complete understanding of the age of the Earth, the geologic time scale, and the role of biotic factors in Earth's systems.

Absolute radiometric calibration of Landsat using a pseudo invariant calibration site

USGS Publications Warehouse

Helder, D.; Thome, K.J.; Mishra, N.; Chander, G.; Xiong, Xiaoxiong; Angal, A.; Choi, Tae-young

2013-01-01

Pseudo invariant calibration sites (PICS) have been used for on-orbit radiometric trending of optical satellite systems for more than 15 years. This approach to vicarious calibration has demonstrated a high degree of reliability and repeatability at the level of 1-3% depending on the site, spectral channel, and imaging geometries. A variety of sensors have used this approach for trending because it is broadly applicable and easy to implement. Models to describe the surface reflectance properties, as well as the intervening atmosphere have also been developed to improve the precision of the method. However, one limiting factor of using PICS is that an absolute calibration capability has not yet been fully developed. Because of this, PICS are primarily limited to providing only long term trending information for individual sensors or cross-calibration opportunities between two sensors. This paper builds an argument that PICS can be used more extensively for absolute calibration. To illustrate this, a simple empirical model is developed for the well-known Libya 4 PICS based on observations by Terra MODIS and EO-1 Hyperion. The model is validated by comparing model predicted top-of-atmosphere reflectance values to actual measurements made by the Landsat ETM+ sensor reflective bands. Following this, an outline is presented to develop a more comprehensive and accurate PICS absolute calibration model that can be Système international d'unités (SI) traceable. These initial concepts suggest that absolute calibration using PICS is possible on a broad scale and can lead to improved on-orbit calibration capabilities for optical satellite sensors.

Determining the importance of model calibration for forecasting absolute/relative changes in streamflow from LULC and climate changes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Niraula, Rewati; Meixner, Thomas; Norman, Laura M.

2015-01-01

Land use/land cover (LULC) and climate changes are important drivers of change in streamflow. Assessing the impact of LULC and climate changes on streamflow is typically done with a calibrated and validated watershed model. However, there is a debate on the degree of calibration required. The objective of this study was to quantify the variation in estimated relative and absolute changes in streamflow associated with LULC and climate changes with different calibration approaches. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied in an uncalibrated (UC), single outlet calibrated (OC), and spatially-calibrated (SC) mode to compare the relative and absolute changes in streamflow at 14 gaging stations within the Santa Cruz River Watershed in southern Arizona, USA. For this purpose, the effect of 3 LULC, 3 precipitation (P), and 3 temperature (T) scenarios were tested individually. For the validation period, Percent Bias (PBIAS) values were >100% with the UC model for all gages, the values were between 0% and 100% with the OC model and within 20% with the SC model. Changes in streamflow predicted with the UC and OC models were compared with those of the SC model. This approach implicitly assumes that the SC model is “ideal”. Results indicated that the magnitude of both absolute and relative changes in streamflow due to LULC predicted with the UC and OC results were different than those of the SC model. The magnitude of absolute changes predicted with the UC and SC models due to climate change (both P and T) were also significantly different, but were not different for OC and SC models. Results clearly indicated that relative changes due to climate change predicted with the UC and OC were not significantly different than that predicted with the SC models. This result suggests that it is important to calibrate the model spatially to analyze the effect of LULC change but not as important for analyzing the relative change in streamflow due to climate change. This study also indicated that model calibration in not necessary to determine the direction of change in streamflow due to LULC and climate change.

A new age model for the early-middle Miocene in the North Alpine Foreland Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reichenbacher, Bettina; Krijgsman, Wout; Pippèrr, Martina; Sant, Karin; Kirscher, Uwe

2016-04-01

The establishment of high-resolution age models for sedimentary successions is crucial for numerous research questions in the geosciences and related disciplines. Such models provide an absolute chronology that permits precise dating of depositional episodes and related processes such as mountain uplift or climate change. Recently, our work in the Miocene sediments of the North Alpine Foreland Basin (NAFB) has revealed a significantly younger age (16.6 Myr) for sediments that were thought to have been deposited 18 Myr ago. This implies that a fundamentally revised new age model is needed for the entire suite of lower-middle Miocene sedimentary rocks in the NAFB (20 to 15-Myr). Our new data also indicate that previously published reconstructions of early-middle Miocene palaeogeography, sedimentation dynamics, mountain uplift and climate change in the NAFB all require a critical review and revision. Further, the time-span addressed is of special interest, since it encompasses the onset of a global warming phase. However, it appears that a fundamentally revised new age model for the entire suite of lower-middle Miocene sedimentary rocks in the NAFB can only be achieved based on a 500 m deep drilling in the NAFB for which we currently seek collaboration partners to develop a grant application to the International Continental Deep Drilling Program (ICDP). Reference: Reichenbacher, B., W. Krijgsman, Y. Lataster, M. Pippèrr, C. G. C. Van Baak, L. Chang, D. Kälin, J. Jost, G. Doppler, D. Jung, J. Prieto, H. Abdul Aziz, M. Böhme, J. Garnish, U. Kirscher, and V. Bachtadse. 2013. A new magnetostratigraphic framework for the Lower Miocene (Burdigalian/Ottnangian, Karpatian) in the North Alpine Foreland Basin. Swiss Journal of Geosciences 106:309-334.

Absolutely relative or relatively absolute: violations of value invariance in human decision making.

PubMed

Teodorescu, Andrei R; Moran, Rani; Usher, Marius

2016-02-01

Making decisions based on relative rather than absolute information processing is tied to choice optimality via the accumulation of evidence differences and to canonical neural processing via accumulation of evidence ratios. These theoretical frameworks predict invariance of decision latencies to absolute intensities that maintain differences and ratios, respectively. While information about the absolute values of the choice alternatives is not necessary for choosing the best alternative, it may nevertheless hold valuable information about the context of the decision. To test the sensitivity of human decision making to absolute values, we manipulated the intensities of brightness stimuli pairs while preserving either their differences or their ratios. Although asked to choose the brighter alternative relative to the other, participants responded faster to higher absolute values. Thus, our results provide empirical evidence for human sensitivity to task irrelevant absolute values indicating a hard-wired mechanism that precedes executive control. Computational investigations of several modelling architectures reveal two alternative accounts for this phenomenon, which combine absolute and relative processing. One account involves accumulation of differences with activation dependent processing noise and the other emerges from accumulation of absolute values subject to the temporal dynamics of lateral inhibition. The potential adaptive role of such choice mechanisms is discussed.

Cumulative incidence of cancer after solid organ transplantation.

PubMed

Hall, Erin C; Pfeiffer, Ruth M; Segev, Dorry L; Engels, Eric A

2013-06-15

Solid organ transplantation recipients have elevated cancer incidence. Estimates of absolute cancer risk after transplantation can inform prevention and screening. The Transplant Cancer Match Study links the US transplantation registry with 14 state/regional cancer registries. The authors used nonparametric competing risk methods to estimate the cumulative incidence of cancer after transplantation for 2 periods (1987-1999 and 2000-2008). For recipients from 2000 to 2008, the 5-year cumulative incidence, stratified by organ, sex, and age at transplantation, was estimated for 6 preventable or screen-detectable cancers. For comparison, the 5-year cumulative incidence was calculated for the same cancers in the general population at representative ages using Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data. Among 164,156 recipients, 8520 incident cancers were identified. The absolute cancer risk was slightly higher for recipients during the period from 2000 to 2008 than during the period from 1987 to 1999 (5-year cumulative incidence: 4.4% vs. 4.2%; P = .006); this difference arose from the decreasing risk of competing events (5-year cumulative incidence of death, graft failure, or retransplantation: 26.6% vs. 31.9%; P < .001). From 2000 to 2008, the 5-year cumulative incidence of non-Hodgkin lymphoma was highest at extremes of age, especially in thoracic organ recipients (ages 0-34 years: range, 1.74%-3.28%; aged >50 years; range, 0.36%-2.22%). For recipients aged >50 years, the 5-year cumulative incidence was higher for colorectal cancer (range, 0.33%-1.94%) than for the general population at the recommended screening age (aged 50 years: range, 0.25%-0.33%). For recipients aged >50 years, the 5-year cumulative incidence was high for lung cancer among thoracic organ recipients (range, 1.16%-3.87%) and for kidney cancer among kidney recipients (range, 0.53%-0.84%). The 5-year cumulative incidence for prostate cancer and breast cancer was similar or lower in transplantation recipients than at the recommended ages of screening in the general population. Subgroups of transplantation recipients have a high absolute risk of some cancers and may benefit from targeted prevention or screening. Copyright © 2013 American Cancer Society.

Genetic selection on abdominal fat content alters the reproductive performance of broilers.

PubMed

Zhang, X Y; Wu, M Q; Wang, S Z; Zhang, H; Du, Z Q; Li, Y M; Cao, Z P; Luan, P; Leng, L; Li, H

2018-06-01

The effects of obesity on reproduction have been widely reported in humans and mice. The present study was designed to compare the reproductive performance of lean and fat chicken lines, divergently selected for abdominal fat content. The following parameters were determined and analyzed in the two lines: (1) reproductive traits, including age at first egg and total egg numbers from generations 14 to 18, absolute and relative testicular weights at 7, 14, 25, 30, 45 and 56 weeks of age, semen quality at 30, 45 and 56 weeks of age in generation 18, and fertility and hatchability from generations 14 to 18; (2) reproductive hormones at 7, 14, 25, 30, 45 and 56 weeks of age in generation 18; (3) and the relative mRNA abundance of genes involved in reproduction at 7, 14, 25, 30, 45 and 56 weeks of age in generation 18. In females, birds in the lean line laid more eggs from the first egg to 40 weeks of age than the birds in the fat line. In male broilers, the birds in the lean line had higher absolute and relative testicular weights at 7, 14 and 25 weeks of age, but lower absolute and relative testicular weights at 56 weeks of age than the birds in the fat line. Male birds in the lean line had greater sperm concentrations and larger numbers of motile and morphologically normal sperms at 30, 45 and 56 weeks of age than the birds in the fat line. Fertility and hatchability were also higher in the lean line than in the fat line. Significant differences in the plasma levels of reproductive hormones and the expression of reproduction-associated genes were also found at different ages in the lean and fat birds, in both males and females. These results suggest that reproductive performance is better in lean birds than in fat birds. In view of the unique divergent lines used in this study, these results imply that selecting for abdominal fat deposition negatively affects the reproductive performance of birds.

Prediction of BP reactivity to talking using hybrid soft computing approaches.

PubMed

Kaur, Gurmanik; Arora, Ajat Shatru; Jain, Vijender Kumar

2014-01-01

High blood pressure (BP) is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular diseases. Therefore, optimal precision in measurement of BP is appropriate in clinical and research studies. In this work, anthropometric characteristics including age, height, weight, body mass index (BMI), and arm circumference (AC) were used as independent predictor variables for the prediction of BP reactivity to talking. Principal component analysis (PCA) was fused with artificial neural network (ANN), adaptive neurofuzzy inference system (ANFIS), and least square-support vector machine (LS-SVM) model to remove the multicollinearity effect among anthropometric predictor variables. The statistical tests in terms of coefficient of determination (R (2)), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) revealed that PCA based LS-SVM (PCA-LS-SVM) model produced a more efficient prediction of BP reactivity as compared to other models. This assessment presents the importance and advantages posed by PCA fused prediction models for prediction of biological variables.

Reevaluating the Mass-Radius Relation for Low-mass, Main-sequence Stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feiden, Gregory A.; Chaboyer, Brian

2012-09-01

We examine the agreement between the observed and theoretical low-mass (<0.8 M ⊙) stellar main-sequence mass-radius relationship by comparing detached eclipsing binary (DEB) data with a new, large grid of stellar evolution models. The new grid allows for a realistic variation in the age and metallicity of the DEB population, characteristic of the local galactic neighborhood. Overall, our models do a reasonable job of reproducing the observational data. A large majority of the models match the observed stellar radii to within 4%, with a mean absolute error of 2.3%. These results represent a factor of two improvement compared to previous examinations of the low-mass mass-radius relationship. The improved agreement between models and observations brings the radius deviations within the limits imposed by potential starspot-related uncertainties for 92% of the stars in our DEB sample.

Developing child autonomy in pediatric healthcare: towards an ethical model.

PubMed

Martakis, Kyriakos; Brand, Helmut; Schröder-Bäck, Peter

2018-06-01

The changes initiated by the new National Civil and Commercial Code in Argentina underline the pediatric task to empower children's and adolescents' developing autonomy. In this paper, we have framed a model describing autonomy in child healthcare. We carried out a literature review focusing on i) the concept of autonomy referring to the absolute value of the autonomous individual, and ii) the age-driven process of competent decisionmaking development. We summarized our findings developing a conceptual model that includes the child, the pediatrician and the parents. The pediatricianchild relationship is based on different forms of guidance and cooperation, resulting in varying levels of activity and passivity. Parental authority influences the extent of autonomy, based on the level of respect of the child's moral equality. Contextual, existential, conceptual, and socialethical conditions shall be considered when applying the model to facilitate dialogue between pediatricians, children, parents and other actors. Sociedad Argentina de Pediatría.

Absolute far-ultraviolet spectrophotometry of hot subluminous stars from Voyager

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holberg, J. B.; Ali, B.; Carone, T. E.; Polidan, R. S.

1991-01-01

Observations, obtained with the Voyager ultraviolet spectrometers, are presented of absolute fluxes for two well-known hot subluminous stars: BD + 28 deg 4211, an sdO, and G191 - B2B, a hot DA white dwarf. Complete absolute energy distributions for these two stars, from the Lyman limit at 912 A to 1 micron, are given. For BD + 28 deg 4211, a single power law closely represents the entire observed energy distribution. For G191 - B2B, a pure hydrogen model atmosphere provides an excellent match to the entire absolute energy distribution. Voyager absolute fluxes are discussed in relation to those reported from various sounding rocket experiments, including a recent rocket observation of BD + 28 deg 4211.

Development of artificial neural network models based on experimental data of response surface methodology to establish the nutritional requirements of digestible lysine, methionine, and threonine in broiler chicks.

PubMed

Mehri, M

2012-12-01

An artificial neural network (ANN) approach was used to develop feed-forward multilayer perceptron models to estimate the nutritional requirements of digestible lysine (dLys), methionine (dMet), and threonine (dThr) in broiler chicks. Sixty data lines representing response of the broiler chicks during 3 to 16 d of age to dietary levels of dLys (0.88-1.32%), dMet (0.42-0.58%), and dThr (0.53-0.87%) were obtained from literature and used to train the networks. The prediction values of ANN were compared with those of response surface methodology to evaluate the fitness of these 2 methods. The models were tested using R(2), mean absolute deviation, mean absolute percentage error, and absolute average deviation. The random search algorithm was used to optimize the developed ANN models to estimate the optimal values of dietary dLys, dMet, and dThr. The ANN models were used to assess the relative importance of each dietary input on the bird performance using sensitivity analysis. The statistical evaluations revealed the higher accuracy of ANN to predict the bird performance compared with response surface methodology models. The optimization results showed that the maximum BW gain may be obtained with dietary levels of 1.11, 0.51, and 0.78% of dLys, dMet, and dThr, respectively. Minimum feed conversion ratio may be achieved with dietary levels of 1.13, 0.54, 0.78% of dLys, dMet, and dThr, respectively. The sensitivity analysis on the models indicated that dietary Lys is the most important variable in the growth performance of the broiler chicks, followed by dietary Thr and Met. The results of this research revealed that the experimental data of a response-surface-methodology design could be successfully used to develop the well-designed ANN for pattern recognition of bird growth and optimization of nutritional requirements. The comparison between the 2 methods also showed that the statistical methods may have little effect on the ideal ratios of dMet and dThr to dLys in broiler chicks using multivariate optimization.

Trends in the leading causes of death in the United States, 1970-2002.

PubMed

Jemal, Ahmedin; Ward, Elizabeth; Hao, Yongping; Thun, Michael

2005-09-14

The decrease in overall death rates in the United States may mask changes in death rates from specific conditions. To examine temporal trends in the age-standardized death rates and in the number of deaths from the 6 leading causes of death in the United States. Analyses of vital statistics data on mortality in the United States from 1970 to 2002. The age-standardized death rate and number of deaths (coded as underlying cause) from each of the 6 leading causes of death: heart disease, stroke, cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, accidents (ie, related to transportation [motor vehicle, other land vehicles, and water, air, and space] and not related to transportation [falls, fire, and accidental posioning]), and diabetes mellitus. The age-standardized death rate (per 100,000 per year) from all causes combined decreased from 1242 in 1970 to 845 in 2002. The largest percentage decreases were in death rates from stroke (63%), heart disease (52%), and accidents (41%). The largest absolute decreases in death rates were from heart disease (262 deaths per 100,000), stroke (96 deaths per 100,000), and accidents (26 deaths per 100,000).The death rate from all types of cancer combined increased between 1970 and 1990 and then decreased through 2002, yielding a net decline of 2.7%. In contrast, death rates doubled from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease over the entire time interval and increased by 45% for diabetes since 1987. Despite decreases in age-standardized death rates from 4 of the 6 leading causes of death, the absolute number of deaths from these conditions continues to increase, although these deaths occur at older ages. The absolute number of deaths and age at death continue to increase in the United States. These temporal trends have major implications for health care and health care costs in an aging population.

Experimental feasibility of the airborne measurement of absolute oil fluorescence spectral conversion efficiency

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoge, F. E.; Swift, R. N.

1983-01-01

Airborne lidar oil spill experiments carried out to determine the practicability of the AOFSCE (absolute oil fluorescence spectral conversion efficiency) computational model are described. The results reveal that the model is suitable over a considerable range of oil film thicknesses provided the fluorescence efficiency of the oil does not approach the minimum detection sensitivity limitations of the lidar system. Separate airborne lidar experiments to demonstrate measurement of the water column Raman conversion efficiency are also conducted to ascertain the ultimate feasibility of converting such relative oil fluorescence to absolute values. Whereas the AOFSCE model is seen as highly promising, further airborne water column Raman conversion efficiency experiments with improved temporal or depth-resolved waveform calibration and software deconvolution techniques are thought necessary for a final determination of suitability.

Cratering on Ceres: Implications for its crust and evolution

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hiesinger, H.; Marchi, S.; Schmedemann, N.; Schenk, P.; Pasckert, J. H.; Neesemann, A.; O'Brien, D. P.; Kneissl, T.; Ermakov, A.; Fu, R.R.; Bland, M. T.; Nathues, A.; Platz, T.; Williams, D.A.; Jaumann, R.; Castillo-Rogez, J. C.; Ruesch, O.; Schmidt, B.; Park, R.S.; Preusker, F.; Buczkowski, D.L.; Russell, C.T.; Raymond, C.A.

2016-01-01

Thermochemical models have predicted that Ceres, is to some extent, differentiated and should have an icy crust with few or no impact craters. We present observations by the Dawn spacecraft that reveal a heavily cratered surface, a heterogeneous crater distribution, and an apparent absence of large craters. The morphology of some impact craters is consistent with ice in the subsurface, which might have favored relaxation, yet large unrelaxed craters are also present. Numerous craters exhibit polygonal shapes, terraces, flowlike features, slumping, smooth deposits, and bright spots. Crater morphology and simple-to-complex crater transition diameters indicate that the crust of Ceres is neither purely icy nor rocky. By dating a smooth region associated with the Kerwan crater, we determined absolute model ages (AMAs) of 550 million and 720 million years, depending on the applied chronology model.

Estimation of hepatitis C virus infections resulting from vertical transmission in Egypt.

PubMed

Benova, Lenka; Awad, Susanne F; Miller, F DeWolfe; Abu-Raddad, Laith J

2015-03-01

Despite having the highest hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence in the world, the ongoing level of HCV incidence in Egypt and its drivers are poorly understood. Whereas HCV mother-to-child infection is a well-established transmission route, there are no estimates of HCV infections resulting from vertical transmission for any country, including Egypt. The aim of this study was to estimate the absolute number of new HCV infections resulting from vertical transmission in Egypt. We developed a conceptual framework of HCV vertical transmission, expressed in terms of a mathematical model and based on maternal HCV antibody and viremia. The mathematical model estimated the number of HCV vertical infections nationally and for six subnational areas. Applying two vertical transmission risk estimates to the 2008 Egyptian birth cohort, we estimated that between 3,080 and 5,167 HCV infections resulted from vertical transmission among children born in 2008. HCV vertical transmission may account for half of incident cases in the <5-year age group. Disproportionately higher proportions of vertical infections were estimated in Lower Rural and Upper Rural subnational areas. This geographical clustering was a result of higher-area-level HCV prevalence among women and higher fertility rates. Vertical transmission is one of the primary HCV infection routes among children<5 years in Egypt. The absolute number of vertical transmissions and the young age at infection highlight a public health concern. These findings also emphasize the need to quantify the relative contributions of other transmission routes to HCV incidence in Egypt. © 2014 The Authors. Hepatology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc., on behalf of the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

The brown dwarf kinematics project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faherty, Jackie K.

2010-10-01

Brown dwarfs are a recent addition to the plethora of objects studied in Astronomy. With theoretical masses between 13 and 75 MJupiter , they lack sustained stable Hydrogen burning so they never join the stellar main sequence. They have physical properties similar to both planets and low-mass stars so studies of their population inform on both. The distances and kinematics of brown dwarfs provide key statistical constraints on their ages, moving group membership, absolute brightnesses, evolutionary trends, and multiplicity. Yet, until my thesis, fundamental measurements of parallax and proper motion were made for only a relatively small fraction of the known population. To address this deficiency, I initiated the Brown Dwarf Kinematics (BDKP). Over the past four years I have re-imaged the majority of spectroscopically confirmed field brown dwarfs (or ultracool dwarfs---UCDs) and created the largest proper motion catalog for ultracool dwarfs to date. Using new astrometric information I examined population characteristics such as ages calculated from velocity dispersions and correlations between kinematics and colors. Using proper motions, I identified several new wide co-moving companions and investigated binding energy (and hence formation) limitations as well as the frequency of hierarchical companions. Concurrently over the past four years I have been conducting a parallax survey of 84 UCDs including those showing spectral signatures of youth, metal-poor brown dwarfs, and those within 20 pc of the Sun. Using absolute magnitude relations in J,H, and K, I identified overluminous binary candidates and investigated known flux-reversal binaries. Using current evolutionary models, I compared the MK vs J-K color magnitude diagram to model predictions and found that the low-surface gravity dwarfs are significantly red-ward and underluminous of predictions and a handful of late-type T dwarfs may require thicker clouds to account for their scatter.

Absolute, SI-traceable lunar irradiance tie-points for the USGS Lunar Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Steven W.; Eplee, Robert E.; Xiong, Xiaoxiong J.

2017-10-01

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) has developed an empirical model, known as the Robotic Lunar Observatory (ROLO) Model, that predicts the reflectance of the Moon for any Sun-sensor-Moon configuration over the spectral range from 350 nm to 2500 nm. The lunar irradiance can be predicted from the modeled lunar reflectance using a spectrum of the incident solar irradiance. While extremely successful as a relative exo-atmospheric calibration target, the ROLO Model is not SI-traceable and has estimated uncertainties too large for the Moon to be used as an absolute celestial calibration target. In this work, two recent absolute, low uncertainty, SI-traceable top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) lunar irradiances, measured over the spectral range from 380 nm to 1040 nm, at lunar phase angles of 6.6° and 16.9° , are used as tie-points to the output of the ROLO Model. Combined with empirically derived phase and libration corrections to the output of the ROLO Model and uncertainty estimates in those corrections, the measurements enable development of a corrected TOA lunar irradiance model and its uncertainty budget for phase angles between +/-80° and libration angles from 7° to 51° . The uncertainties in the empirically corrected output from the ROLO model are approximately 1 % from 440 nm to 865 nm and increase to almost 3 % at 412 nm. The dominant components in the uncertainty budget are the uncertainty in the absolute TOA lunar irradiance and the uncertainty in the fit to the phase correction from the output of the ROLO model.

Photometric Analysis of Overcontact Binaries AK Her, HI Dra, V1128 Tau, and V2612 Oph

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Çalışkan, Ş.; Latković, O.; Djurašević, G.; Özavcı, İ.; Baştürk, Ö.; Cséki, A.; Şenavcı, H. V.; Kılıçoğlu, T.; Yılmaz, M.; Selam, S. O.

2014-12-01

We analyze new, high quality multicolor light curves of four overcontact binaries: AK Her, HI Dra, V1128 Tau, and V2612 Oph, and determine their orbital and physical parameters using the modeling program of G. Djurasevic and recently published results of radial velocity studies. The achieved precision in absolute masses is between 10% and 20%, and the precision in absolute radii is between 5% and 10%. All four systems are W UMa-type binaries with bright or dark spots indicative of mass and energy transfer or surface activity. We estimate the distances and the ages of the systems using the luminosities computed through our analysis, and perform an O - C study for V1128 Tau, which reveals a complex period variation that can be interpreted in terms of mass loss/exchange and either the presence of the third body, or the magnetic activity on one of the components. We conclude that further observations of these systems are needed to deepen our understanding of their nature and variability.

Absolute Properties of the Eclipsing Binary Star BF Draconis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lacy, Claud H. Sandberg; Torres, Guillermo; Fekel, Francis C.; Sabby, Jeffrey A.; Claret, Antonio

2012-06-01

BF Dra is now known to be an eccentric double-lined F6+F6 binary star with relatively deep (0.7 mag) partial eclipses. Previous studies of the system are improved with 7494 differential photometric observations from the URSA WebScope and 9700 from the NFO WebScope, 106 high-resolution spectroscopic observations from the Tennessee State University 2 m automatic spectroscopic telescope and the 1 m coudé-feed spectrometer at Kitt Peak National Observatory, and 31 accurate radial velocities from the CfA. Very accurate (better than 0.6%) masses and radii are determined from analysis of the two new light curves and four radial velocity curves. Theoretical models match the absolute properties of the stars at an age of about 2.72 Gyr and [Fe/H] = -0.17, and tidal theory correctly confirms that the orbit should still be eccentric. Our observations of BF Dra constrain the convective core overshooting parameter to be larger than about 0.13 Hp . We find, however, that standard tidal theory is unable to match the observed slow rotation rates of the components' surface layers.

Simulation Study of the Effect of Influenza and Influenza Vaccination on Risk of Acquiring Guillain-Barré Syndrome

PubMed Central

Hawken, Steven; Kwong, Jeffrey C.; Deeks, Shelley L.; Crowcroft, Natasha S.; McGeer, Allison J.; Ducharme, Robin; Campitelli, Michael A.; Coyle, Doug

2015-01-01

It is unclear whether seasonal influenza vaccination results in a net increase or decrease in the risk for Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS). To assess the effect of seasonal influenza vaccination on the absolute risk of acquiring GBS, we used simulation models and published estimates of age- and sex-specific risks for GBS, influenza incidence, and vaccine effectiveness. For a hypothetical 45-year-old woman and 75-year-old man, excess GBS risk for influenza vaccination versus no vaccination was −0.36/1 million vaccinations (95% credible interval −1.22 to 0.28) and −0.42/1 million vaccinations (95% credible interval, –3.68 to 2.44), respectively. These numbers represent a small absolute reduction in GBS risk with vaccination. Under typical conditions (e.g. influenza incidence rates >5% and vaccine effectiveness >60%), vaccination reduced GBS risk. These findings should strengthen confidence in the safety of influenza vaccine and allow health professionals to better put GBS risk in context when discussing influenza vaccination with patients. PMID:25625590

Photometric analysis of overcontact binaries AK Her, HI Dra, V1128 Tau, and V2612 Oph

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Çalışkan, Ş.; Özavcı, İ.; Baştürk, Ö.

2014-12-01

We analyze new, high quality multicolor light curves of four overcontact binaries: AK Her, HI Dra, V1128 Tau, and V2612 Oph, and determine their orbital and physical parameters using the modeling program of G. Djurasevic and recently published results of radial velocity studies. The achieved precision in absolute masses is between 10% and 20%, and the precision in absolute radii is between 5% and 10%. All four systems are W UMa-type binaries with bright or dark spots indicative of mass and energy transfer or surface activity. We estimate the distances and the ages of the systems using the luminosities computedmore » through our analysis, and perform an O – C study for V1128 Tau, which reveals a complex period variation that can be interpreted in terms of mass loss/exchange and either the presence of the third body, or the magnetic activity on one of the components. We conclude that further observations of these systems are needed to deepen our understanding of their nature and variability.« less

Overview of the randomized trials of radiotherapy in ductal carcinoma in situ of the breast.

PubMed

Correa, C; McGale, P; Taylor, C; Wang, Y; Clarke, M; Davies, C; Peto, R; Bijker, N; Solin, L; Darby, S

2010-01-01

Individual patient data were available for all four of the randomized trials that began before 1995, and that compared adjuvant radiotherapy vs no radiotherapy following breast-conserving surgery for ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). A total of 3729 women were eligible for analysis. Radiotherapy reduced the absolute 10-year risk of any ipsilateral breast event (ie, either recurrent DCIS or invasive cancer) by 15.2% (SE 1.6%, 12.9% vs 28.1% 2 P <.00001), and it was effective regardless of the age at diagnosis, extent of breast-conserving surgery, use of tamoxifen, method of DCIS detection, margin status, focality, grade, comedonecrosis, architecture, or tumor size. The proportional reduction in ipsilateral breast events was greater in older than in younger women (2P < .0004 for difference between proportional reductions; 10-year absolute risks: 18.5% vs 29.1% at ages <50 years, 10.8% vs 27.8% at ages ≥ 50 years) but did not differ significantly according to any other available factor. Even for women with negative margins and small low-grade tumors, the absolute reduction in the 10-year risk of ipsilateral breast events was 18.0% (SE 5.5, 12.1% vs 30.1%, 2P = .002). After 10 years of follow-up, there was, however, no significant effect on breast cancer mortality, mortality from causes other than breast cancer, or all-cause mortality.

A suggestion for computing objective function in model calibration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wu, Yiping; Liu, Shuguang

2014-01-01

A parameter-optimization process (model calibration) is usually required for numerical model applications, which involves the use of an objective function to determine the model cost (model-data errors). The sum of square errors (SSR) has been widely adopted as the objective function in various optimization procedures. However, ‘square error’ calculation was found to be more sensitive to extreme or high values. Thus, we proposed that the sum of absolute errors (SAR) may be a better option than SSR for model calibration. To test this hypothesis, we used two case studies—a hydrological model calibration and a biogeochemical model calibration—to investigate the behavior of a group of potential objective functions: SSR, SAR, sum of squared relative deviation (SSRD), and sum of absolute relative deviation (SARD). Mathematical evaluation of model performance demonstrates that ‘absolute error’ (SAR and SARD) are superior to ‘square error’ (SSR and SSRD) in calculating objective function for model calibration, and SAR behaved the best (with the least error and highest efficiency). This study suggests that SSR might be overly used in real applications, and SAR may be a reasonable choice in common optimization implementations without emphasizing either high or low values (e.g., modeling for supporting resources management).

Effects of correcting for prematurity on cognitive test scores in childhood.

PubMed

Wilson-Ching, Michelle; Pascoe, Leona; Doyle, Lex W; Anderson, Peter J

2014-03-01

The American Academy of Pediatrics recommends that test scores should be corrected for prematurity up to 3 years of age, but this practice varies greatly in both clinical and research settings. The aim of this study was to contrast the effects of using chronological age and those of using corrected age on measures of cognitive outcome across childhood. A theoretical model was constructed using norms from the Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development, Third Edition; the Wechsler Preschool and Primary Scale of Intelligence, Third Edition Australian; and the Wechsler Intelligence Scales for Children, Fourth Edition Australian. Baseline scores representing different levels of functioning (70, below average; 85, borderline; and 100, average) were recalculated using the normative data for ages 6 months to 16 years to account for 1, 2, 3 and 4 months of prematurity. The model created depicted the difference in standardised scores between chronological and corrected age. Compared with scores corrected for prematurity, the absolute reduction in scores using chronological age was greater for increasing degree of prematurity, younger ages at assessment and higher baseline scores and was substantial even beyond 3 years of age. However, the pattern was erratic, with considerable fluctuation evident across different ages and baseline scores. Chronological age results in a lowering of scores at all ages for preterm-born subjects that is greater in the first few years and in those born at earlier gestational ages. Whether or not to correct for prematurity depends upon the context of the assessment. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Paediatrics and Child Health © 2014 Paediatrics and Child Health Division (Royal Australasian College of Physicians).

Perception of musical and lexical tones by Taiwanese-speaking musicians.

PubMed

Lee, Chao-Yang; Lee, Yuh-Fang; Shr, Chia-Lin

2011-07-01

This study explored the relationship between music and speech by examining absolute pitch and lexical tone perception. Taiwanese-speaking musicians were asked to identify musical tones without a reference pitch and multispeaker Taiwanese level tones without acoustic cues typically present for speaker normalization. The results showed that a high percentage of the participants (65% with an exact match required and 81% with one-semitone errors allowed) possessed absolute pitch, as measured by the musical tone identification task. A negative correlation was found between occurrence of absolute pitch and age of onset of musical training, suggesting that the acquisition of absolute pitch resembles the acquisition of speech. The participants were able to identify multispeaker Taiwanese level tones with above-chance accuracy, even though the acoustic cues typically present for speaker normalization were not available in the stimuli. No correlations were found between the performance in musical tone identification and the performance in Taiwanese tone identification. Potential reasons for the lack of association between the two tasks are discussed. © 2011 Acoustical Society of America

How old are lunar lobate scarps? 1. Seismic resetting of crater size-frequency distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Bogert, Carolyn H.; Clark, Jaclyn D.; Hiesinger, Harald; Banks, Maria E.; Watters, Thomas R.; Robinson, Mark S.

2018-05-01

Previous studies have estimated the ages of lunar lobate scarps, some of the youngest tectonic landforms on the Moon, based on the estimated life-times of their fresh morphologies and associated small graben, using crater degradation ages, or via buffered and traditional crater size-frequency distribution (CSFD) measurements. Here, we reexamine five scarps previously dated by Binder and Gunga (1985) with crater degradation ages to benchmark the evaluation of both the buffered and traditional CSFD approaches for determination of absolute model ages (AMAs) at scarps. Both CSFD methods yield similar ages for each individual scarp, indicating that fault activity not only can be measured on the scarp itself, but also in the surrounding terrain - an indication that tectonic activity causes surface renewal both adjacent to and even kilometers distant from scarps. Size-frequency variations in the regions surrounding the scarps are thus useful for studying the extent and severity of the ground motion caused by coseismic slip events during scarp formation. All age determination approaches continue to indicate that lunar lobate scarps were active in the late Copernican, with some scarps possibly experiencing activity within the last 100 Ma.

How Old are Lunar Lobate Scarps? 1. Seismic Resetting of Crater Size-Frequency Distributions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Van Der Bogert, Carolyn H.; Clark, Jaclyn D.; Hiesinger, Harald; Banks, Maria E.; Watters, Thomas R.; Robinson, Mark S.

2018-01-01

Previous studies have estimated the ages of lunar lobate scarps, some of the youngest tectonic landforms on the Moon, based on the estimated life-times of their fresh morphologies and associated small graben, using crater degradation ages, or via buffered and traditional crater size-frequency distribution (CSFD) measurements. Here, we reexamine five scarps previously dated by Binder and Gunga (1985) with crater degradation ages to benchmark the evaluation of both the buffered and traditional CSFD approaches for determination of absolute model ages (AMAs) at scarps. Both CSFD methods yield similar ages for each individual scarp, indicating that fault activity not only can be measured on the scarp itself, but also in the surrounding terrain - an indication that tectonic activity causes surface renewal both adjacent to and even kilometers distant from scarps. Size-frequency variations in the regions surrounding the scarps are thus useful for studying the extent and severity of the ground motion caused by coseismic slip events during scarp formation. All age determination approaches continue to indicate that lunar lobate scarps were active in the late Copernican, with some scarps possibly experiencing activity within the last 100 Ma.

Regional biases in absolute sea-level estimates from tide gauge data due to residual unmodeled vertical land movement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, Matt A.; Keshin, Maxim; Whitehouse, Pippa L.; Thomas, Ian D.; Milne, Glenn; Riva, Riccardo E. M.

2012-07-01

The only vertical land movement signal routinely corrected for when estimating absolute sea-level change from tide gauge data is that due to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). We compare modeled GIA uplift (ICE-5G + VM2) with vertical land movement at ˜300 GPS stations located near to a global set of tide gauges, and find regionally coherent differences of commonly ±0.5-2 mm/yr. Reference frame differences and signal due to present-day mass trends cannot reconcile these differences. We examine sensitivity to the GIA Earth model by fitting to a subset of the GPS velocities and find substantial regional sensitivity, but no single Earth model is able to reduce the disagreement in all regions. We suggest errors in ice history and neglected lateral Earth structure dominate model-data differences, and urge caution in the use of modeled GIA uplift alone when interpreting regional- and global- scale absolute (geocentric) sea level from tide gauge data.

Efficiency at Sorting Cards in Compressed Air

PubMed Central

Poulton, E. C.; Catton, M. J.; Carpenter, A.

1964-01-01

At a site where compressed air was being used in the construction of a tunnel, 34 men sorted cards twice, once at normal atmospheric pressure and once at 3½, 2½, or 2 atmospheres absolute pressure. An additional six men sorted cards twice at normal atmospheric pressure. When the task was carried out for the first time, all the groups of men performing at raised pressure were found to yield a reliably greater proportion of very slow responses than the group of men performing at normal pressure. There was reliably more variability in timing at 3½ and 2½ atmospheres absolute than at normal pressure. At 3½ atmospheres absolute the average performance was also reliably slower. When the task was carried out for the second time, exposure to 3½ atmospheres absolute pressure had no reliable effect. Thus compressed air affected performance only while the task was being learnt; it had little effect after practice. No reliable differences were found related to age, to length of experience in compressed air, or to the duration of the exposure to compressed air, which was never less than 10 minutes at 3½ atmospheres absolute pressure. PMID:14180485

The Bombardment History of 4 Vesta as Told by Sample Geochronology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cohen, B. A.

2014-01-01

The Dawn mission showed asteroid 4 Vesta to be an extensively cratered body, ancient in age, with craters in a variety of morphologies and preservation states [1-3]. Tying Vesta's relative crater ages to an absolute impact history can be accomplished through investigations of the HED (howardite, eucrite, diogenite) meteorites. Eucrites are crustal basalts and gabbros, diogenites are mostly orthopyroxenites representing lower crust or upper mantle materials, and howardites are mixed breccias containing both lithologies. Eucrite 53Mn-53Cr systematics show that the HED parent body globally differentiated by 4.56 Ga and fully crystallized soon afterwards [4]. Much later, many eucrites were brecciated and heated by large impacts into the parent body surface. Disturbance ages in eucrites show that multiple large impacts occurred within 1 Gyr after crystallization, showing a history that largely resembles that of the Moon [5-7]. Dawn images also showed that Vesta is covered with a well-developed regolith that is spectrally similar to howardite meteorites [8]. Howardites are polymict regolith breccias made up mostly of clasts of eucrites and diogenites, but which also contain clasts formed by melting of the regolith by relatively large, energetic impact events. Impact-melt clast ages from howardites extend our knowledge of the impact history of Vesta, expanding on eucrite disturbance ages and helping give absolute age context to the observed crater-counts produced using Dawn data. The distribution of 40Ar-39Ar ages of impact-melt clasts in howardites shows that they formed within the time period 3.3-3.8 Ga [9]. These, and other impact-melted HED materials, have distinct age and compositional characteristics that suggest they formed in discrete impact events. In order to create these crystalline impact-melt products on the surface of Vesta, the impacts during this time period must have had velocities much higher than 5 km/s, the main belt average [10]. This is inconsistent with formation by a normal distribution of impact velocities and points instead to a unique period where high-velocity collisions were more frequent than currently observed. Until now, impact-reset ages in the HED meteorites have been be interpreted under the umbrella of the canonical lunar cataclysm where an increase in the absolute number of bombarding objects is responsible for creating larger absolute amounts of impact-affected and impact-melted rocks, statistically increasing their chances of being found on Earth and dated. However, the distribution of age among the howardite impact-melt clasts may not necessarily result from an increased number of impacts, but rather result from impacts of higher velocity. The changeover from a typical main belt velocity profile to this regime of increased velocity population at Vesta occurs contemporaneously with a similar transition at the Moon, indicating that howardite impact-melt clast ages reinforce the notion of a dynamically unusual episode of bombardment in the inner solar system beginning at around 4.0 Ga.

Prevalence Incidence Mixture Models

Cancer.gov

The R package and webtool fits Prevalence Incidence Mixture models to left-censored and irregularly interval-censored time to event data that is commonly found in screening cohorts assembled from electronic health records. Absolute and relative risk can be estimated for simple random sampling, and stratified sampling (the two approaches of superpopulation and a finite population are supported for target populations). Non-parametric (absolute risks only), semi-parametric, weakly-parametric (using B-splines), and some fully parametric (such as the logistic-Weibull) models are supported.

Modeling of the influence of humidity on H1N1 flu in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

PEI, Y.; Tian, H.; Xu, B.

2015-12-01

In 2009, a heavy Flu hit the whole world. It was caused by the virus H1N1. The influenza first broke out in Mexico in March and the United States in April, 2009. The World Health Organization (WHO) announced that the H1N1 influenza became pandemic, alert to a warning phase of six. By the end of 2011, 181302 H1N1 cases were reported in mainland China. To improve our understanding on the impact of environmental factors on the disease transmission, we constructed an SIR (Susceptible - Infectious - Recovered) model incorporating environmental factors. It was found that the absolute humidity was a dominant environmental factor. The study interpolated the humidity data monitored with 340 weather stations from 1951 to 2011 in mainland China. First, the break point of the trend for the absolutely humidity was detected by the BFAST (Break For Additive Season and Trend) method. Then, the SIR model with and without the absolutely humidity incorporated in the model was built and tested. Finally, the results with the two scenarios were compared. Results indicate that lower absolutely humidity may promote the transmission of the H1N1 cases. The calculated basic reproductive number ranges from 1.65 to 3.66 with a changing absolute humidity. This is consistent with the former study result with basic reproductive number ranging from 2.03 to 4.18. The average recovery duration was estimated to be 5.7 days. The average duration to get immunity from the influenza is 399.02 days. A risk map is also produced to illustrate the model results.

Risk communication methods in hip fracture prevention: a randomised trial in primary care.

PubMed

Hudson, Ben; Toop, Les; Mangin, Dee; Pearson, John

2011-08-01

Treatment acceptance by patients is influenced by the way treatment effects are presented. Presentation of benefits using relative risk increases treatment acceptance compared to the use of absolute risk. It is not known whether this effect is modified by prior presentation of a patient's individualised risk estimate or how presentation of treatment harms by relative or absolute risk affects acceptance. To compare acceptance of a hypothetical treatment to prevent hip fracture after presentation of the treatment's benefit in relative or absolute terms in the context of a personal fracture risk estimate, and to reassess acceptance following subsequent presentation of harm in relative or absolute terms. Randomised controlled trial of patients recruited from 10 GPs' lists in Christchurch, New Zealand. Women aged ≥ 50 years were invited to participate. Participants were given a personal 10-year hip fracture risk estimate and randomised to receive information on a hypothetical treatment's benefit and harm in relative or absolute terms. Of the 1140 women invited to participate 393 (34%) took part. Treatment acceptance was greater following presentation of benefit using absolute terms than relative terms after adjustment forage, education, previous osteoporosis diagnosis, and self-reported risk (OR 1.73, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.10 to 2.73, P = 0.018). Presentation of the treatment's harmful effect in relative terms led to a greater proportion of participants declining treatment than did presentation in absolute terms (OR 4.89, 95% CI = 2.3 to 11.0, P<0.001). Presentation of treatment benefit and harm using absolute risk estimates led to greater treatment acceptance than presentation of the same information in relative terms.

Absolute versus Relative Difference Measures of Priming: Which Is Appropriate when Baseline Scores Change with Age?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Murphy, Kristina; McKone, Elinor; Slee, Judith

2006-01-01

It is often of theoretical interest to know if implicit memory (repetition priming) develops across childhood under a given circumstance. Methodologically, however, it is difficult to determine whether development is present when baseline performance for unstudied items improves with age. Calculation of priming in absolute…

The impact of diabetes on employment and work productivity.

PubMed

Tunceli, Kaan; Bradley, Cathy J; Nerenz, David; Williams, L Keoki; Pladevall, Manel; Elston Lafata, Jennifer

2005-11-01

The purpose of this study was to longitudinally examine the effect of diabetes on labor market outcomes. Using secondary data from the first two waves (1992 and 1994) of the Health and Retirement Study, we identified 7,055 employed respondents (51-61 years of age), 490 of whom reported having diabetes in wave 1. We estimated the effect of diabetes in wave 1 on the probability of working in wave 2 using probit regression. For those working in wave 2, we modeled the relationships between diabetic status in wave 1 and the change in hours worked and work-loss days using ordinary least-squares regressions and modeled the presence of health-related work limitations using probit regression. All models control for health status and job characteristics and are estimated separately by sex. Among individuals with diabetes, the absolute probability of working was 4.4 percentage points less for women and 7.1 percentage points less for men relative to that of their counterparts without diabetes. Change in weekly hours worked was not statistically significantly associated with diabetes. Women with diabetes had 2 more work-loss days per year compared with women without diabetes. Compared with individuals without diabetes, men and women with diabetes were 5.4 and 6 percentage points (absolute increase), respectively, more likely to have work limitations. This article provides evidence that diabetes affects patients, employers, and society not only by reducing employment but also by contributing to work loss and health-related work limitations for those who remain employed.

Absolute and Relative Carnitine Deficiency in Patients on Hemodialysis and Peritoneal Dialysis.

PubMed

Naseri, Mitra; Mottaghi Moghadam Shahri, Hasan; Horri, Mohsen; Esmaeeli, Mohammad; Ghaneh Sherbaf, Fatemeh; Jahanshahi, Shohre; Moeenolroayaa, Giti; Rasoli, Zahra; Salemian, Farzaneh; Pour Hasan, Maryam

2016-01-01

Carnitine deficiency is commonly seen in dialysis patients. This study assessed the association dialysis and pediatric patients' characteristics with plasma carnitines levels. Plasma carnitine concentrations were measured by tandem mass spectrometry in 46 children on hemodialysis or peritoneal dialysis. The total carnitine, free carnitine (FC), and L-acyl carnitine (AC) levels of 40 µmol/L and less, less than 7 µmol/L, and less than 15 µmol/L were defined low, respectively. An FC less than 20 µmol/L and an AC/FC ratio greater than 0.4 were considered as absolute and relative carnitine deficiencies. The correlation between carnitines levels and AC/FC ratio and age, duration of dialysis, characteristics of dialysis, and blood urea nitrogen and serum albumin concentrations were assessed. Absolute carnitine deficiency, low total carnitine, and low AC concentrations were found in 66.7%, 82.6%, and 51% of the patients, respectively. All of the patients had relative carnitine deficiency. Carnitine measurements were not significantly different between the hemodialysis and peritoneal dialysis groups. More severe relative carnitine deficiency was found in those with lower blood urea nitrogen levels and those on peritoneal dialysis. No linear correlation was found between carnitine levels and age, duration of dialysis, characteristics of dialysis, serum albumin level, or blood urea nitrogen level. Absolute and relative carnitine deficiencies are common among children on dialysis. Patients with lower blood urea nitrogen levels and peritoneal dialysis patients are more prone to severe relative carnitine deficiency.

Examination of DNA methylation status of the ELOVL2 marker may be useful for human age prediction in forensic science.

PubMed

Zbieć-Piekarska, Renata; Spólnicka, Magdalena; Kupiec, Tomasz; Makowska, Żanetta; Spas, Anna; Parys-Proszek, Agnieszka; Kucharczyk, Krzysztof; Płoski, Rafał; Branicki, Wojciech

2015-01-01

Age estimation in forensic investigations may complement the prediction of externally visible characteristics and the inference of biogeographical ancestry, thus allowing a better description of an unknown individual. Multiple CpG sites that show linear correlation between age and degree of DNA methylation have been identified in the human genome, providing a selection of candidates for age prediction. In this study, we optimized an assay based on bisulfite conversion and pyrosequencing of 7 CpG sites located in the ELOVL2 gene. Examination of 303 blood samples collected from individuals aged 2-75 years allowed selection of the most informative site, explaining 83% of variation in age. The final linear regression model included two CpG sites in ELOVL2 and enabled age prediction with R(2)=0.859, prediction error=6.85 and mean absolute deviation MAD=5.03. Examination of a testing set of 124 blood samples (MAD=5.75) showed that 68.5% of samples were correctly predicted, assuming that chronological and predicted ages matched ± 7 years. It was found that the ELOVL2 methylation status in bloodstains had not changed significantly after 4 weeks of storage in room temperature conditions. Analysis of 45 bloodstains deposited on tissue paper after 5, 10 and 15 years of storage in room conditions indicated that although a gradual decrease of positive PCR results was observed, the general age prediction success rate remained similar and equaled 60-78%. The obtained results show that the ELOVL2 locus provides a very good source of information about human chronological age based on analysis of blood, including bloodstains, and it may constitute a powerful and reliable predictor in future forensic age estimation models. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Factor structure and psychometric properties of the english version of the trier inventory for chronic stress (TICS-E).

PubMed

Petrowski, Katja; Kliem, Sören; Sadler, Michael; Meuret, Alicia E; Ritz, Thomas; Brähler, Elmar

2018-02-06

Demands placed on individuals in occupational and social settings, as well as imbalances in personal traits and resources, can lead to chronic stress. The Trier Inventory for Chronic Stress (TICS) measures chronic stress while incorporating domain-specific aspects, and has been found to be a highly reliable and valid research tool. The aims of the present study were to confirm the German version TICS factorial structure in an English translation of the instrument (TICS-E) and to report its psychometric properties. A random route sample of healthy participants (N = 483) aged 18-30 years completed the TICS-E. The robust maximum likelihood estimation with a mean-adjusted chi-square test statistic was applied due to the sample's significant deviation from the multivariate normal distribution. Goodness of fit, absolute model fit, and relative model fit were assessed by means of the root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA), the Comparative Fit Index (CFI) and the Tucker Lewis Index (TLI). Reliability estimates (Cronbach's α and adjusted split-half reliability) ranged from .84 to .92. Item-scale correlations ranged from .50 to .85. Measures of fit showed values of .052 for RMSEA (Cl = 0.50-.054) and .067 for SRMR for absolute model fit, and values of .846 (TLI) and .855 (CFI) for relative model-fit. Factor loadings ranged from .55 to .91. The psychometric properties and factor structure of the TICS-E are comparable to the German version of the TICS. The instrument therefore meets quality standards for an adequate measurement of chronic stress.

Absolute cross-sections for DNA strand breaks and crosslinks induced by low energy electrons

PubMed Central

Chen, Wenzhuang; Chen, Shiliang; Dong, Yanfang; Cloutier, Pierre; Sanche, Léon

2016-01-01

Absolute cross sections (CSs) for the interaction of low energy electrons with condensed macromolecules are essential parameters to accurately model ionizing radiation induced reactions. To determine CSs for various conformational DNA damage induced by 2–20 eV electrons, we investigated the influence of the attenuation length (AL) and penetration factor (f) using a mathematical model. Solid films of super-coiled plasmid DNA with thicknesses of 10, 15 and 20 nm were irradiated with 4.6, 5.6, 9.6 and 14.6 eV electrons. DNA conformational changes were quantified by gel electrophoresis, and the respective yields were extrapolated from exposure–response curves. The absolute CS, AL and f values were generated by applying the model developed by Rezaee et al. The values of AL were found to lie between 11 and 16 nm with the maximum at 14.6 eV. The absolute CSs for the loss of the supercoiled (LS) configuration and production of crosslinks (CL), single strand breaks (SSB) and double strand breaks (DSB) induced by 4.6, 5.6, 9.6 and 14.6 eV electrons are obtained. The CSs for SSB are smaller, but similar to those for LS, indicating that SSB are the main conformational damage. The CSs for DSB and CL are about one order of magnitude smaller than those of LS and SSB. The value of f is found to be independent of electron energy, which allows extending the absolute CSs for these types of damage within the range 2–20 eV, from previous measurements of effective CSs. When comparison is possible, the absolute CSs are found to be in good agreement with those obtained from previous similar studies with double-stranded DNA. The high values of the absolute CSs of 4.6 and 9.6 eV provide quantitative evidence for the high efficiency of low energy electrons to induce DNA damage via the formation of transient anions. PMID:27878170

Absolute cross-sections for DNA strand breaks and crosslinks induced by low energy electrons.

PubMed

Chen, Wenzhuang; Chen, Shiliang; Dong, Yanfang; Cloutier, Pierre; Zheng, Yi; Sanche, Léon

2016-12-07

Absolute cross sections (CSs) for the interaction of low energy electrons with condensed macromolecules are essential parameters to accurately model ionizing radiation induced reactions. To determine CSs for various conformational DNA damage induced by 2-20 eV electrons, we investigated the influence of the attenuation length (AL) and penetration factor (f) using a mathematical model. Solid films of supercoiled plasmid DNA with thicknesses of 10, 15 and 20 nm were irradiated with 4.6, 5.6, 9.6 and 14.6 eV electrons. DNA conformational changes were quantified by gel electrophoresis, and the respective yields were extrapolated from exposure-response curves. The absolute CS, AL and f values were generated by applying the model developed by Rezaee et al. The values of AL were found to lie between 11 and 16 nm with the maximum at 14.6 eV. The absolute CSs for the loss of the supercoiled (LS) configuration and production of crosslinks (CL), single strand breaks (SSB) and double strand breaks (DSB) induced by 4.6, 5.6, 9.6 and 14.6 eV electrons are obtained. The CSs for SSB are smaller, but similar to those for LS, indicating that SSB are the main conformational damage. The CSs for DSB and CL are about one order of magnitude smaller than those of LS and SSB. The value of f is found to be independent of electron energy, which allows extending the absolute CSs for these types of damage within the range 2-20 eV, from previous measurements of effective CSs. When comparison is possible, the absolute CSs are found to be in good agreement with those obtained from previous similar studies with double-stranded DNA. The high values of the absolute CSs of 4.6 and 9.6 eV provide quantitative evidence for the high efficiency of low energy electrons to induce DNA damage via the formation of transient anions.

Poly-Ub-Substrate-Degradative Activity of 26S Proteasome Is Not Impaired in the Aging Rat Brain

PubMed Central

Giannini, Carolin; Kloß, Alexander; Gohlke, Sabrina; Mishto, Michele; Nicholson, Thomas P.; Sheppard, Paul W.; Kloetzel, Peter-Michael; Dahlmann, Burkhardt

2013-01-01

Proteostasis is critical for the maintenance of life. In neuronal cells an imbalance between protein synthesis and degradation is thought to be involved in the pathogenesis of neurodegenerative diseases during aging. Partly, this seems to be due to a decrease in the activity of the ubiquitin-proteasome system, wherein the 20S/26S proteasome complexes catalyse the proteolytic step. We have characterised 20S and 26S proteasomes from cerebrum, cerebellum and hippocampus of 3 weeks old (young) and 24 month old (aged) rats. Our data reveal that the absolute amount of the proteasome is not dfferent between both age groups. Within the majority of standard proteasomes in brain the minute amounts of immuno-subunits are slightly increased in aged rat brain. While this goes along with a decrease in the activities of 20S and 26S proteasomes to hydrolyse synthetic fluorogenic tripeptide substrates from young to aged rats, the capacity of 26S proteasomes for degradation of poly-Ub-model substrates and its activation by poly-Ub-substrates is not impaired or even slightly increased in brain of aged rats. We conclude that these alterations in proteasome properties are important for maintaining proteostasis in the brain during an uncomplicated aging process. PMID:23667697

Identification by machine vision of the rate of motor activity decline as a lifespan predictor in C. elegans

PubMed Central

Hsu, Ao-Lin; Feng, Zhaoyang; Hsieh, Meng-Yin; Xu, X. Z. Shawn

2009-01-01

One challenge in aging research concerns identifying physiological parameters or biomarkers that can reflect the physical health of an animal and predict its lifespan. In C. elegans, a model organism widely used in aging research, motor deficits develop in old worms. Here we employed machine vision to quantify worm locomotion behavior throughout lifespan. We confirm that aging worms undergo a progressive decline in motor activity, beginning in early life. Importantly, the rate of motor activity decline rather than the absolute motor activity in the early-to-mid life of individual worms in an isogenic population inversely correlates with their lifespan, and thus may serve as a lifespan predictor. Long-lived mutant strains with deficits in insulin/IGF-1 signaling or food intake display a reduction in the rate of motor activity decline, suggesting that this parameter might also be used for across-strain comparison of healthspan. Our work identifies an endogenous physiological parameter for lifespan prediction and healthspan comparison. PMID:18255194

Identification by machine vision of the rate of motor activity decline as a lifespan predictor in C. elegans.

PubMed

Hsu, Ao-Lin; Feng, Zhaoyang; Hsieh, Meng-Yin; Xu, X Z Shawn

2009-09-01

One challenge in aging research concerns identifying physiological parameters or biomarkers that can reflect the physical health of an animal and predict its lifespan. In C. elegans, a model organism widely used in aging research, motor deficits develop in old worms. Here we employed machine vision to quantify worm locomotion behavior throughout lifespan. We confirm that aging worms undergo a progressive decline in motor activity, beginning in early life. Importantly, the rate of motor activity decline rather than the absolute motor activity in the early-to-mid life of individual worms in an isogenic population inversely correlates with their lifespan, and thus may serve as a lifespan predictor. Long-lived mutant strains with deficits in insulin/IGF-1 signaling or food intake display a reduction in the rate of motor activity decline, suggesting that this parameter might also be used for across-strain comparison of healthspan. Our work identifies an endogenous physiological parameter for lifespan prediction and healthspan comparison.

Can climate models be tuned to simulate the global mean absolute temperature correctly?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duan, Q.; Shi, Y.; Gong, W.

2016-12-01

The Inter-government Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has already issued five assessment reports (ARs), which include the simulation of the past climate and the projection of the future climate under various scenarios. The participating models can simulate reasonably well the trend in global mean temperature change, especially of the last 150 years. However, there is a large, constant discrepancy in terms of global mean absolute temperature simulations over this period. This discrepancy remained in the same range between IPCC-AR4 and IPCC-AR5, which amounts to about 3oC between the coldest model and the warmest model. This discrepancy has great implications to the land processes, particularly the processes related to the cryosphere, and casts doubts over if land-atmosphere-ocean interactions are correctly considered in those models. This presentation aims to explore if this discrepancy can be reduced through model tuning. We present an automatic model calibration strategy to tune the parameters of a climate model so the simulated global mean absolute temperature would match the observed data over the last 150 years. An intermediate complexity model known as LOVECLIM is used in the study. This presentation will show the preliminary results.

Socioeconomic status and children's health: evidence from a low-income country.

PubMed

Sepehri, Ardeshir; Guliani, Harminder

2015-04-01

There has been a growing empirical literature on the relationship between household socioeconomic status (SES) and children's health, and in particular, whether this SES gradient is constant or varies in strength across different life stages. Much of this literature focuses on the developed countries and less evidence has been presented for developing countries. Using Vietnam's rich National Health Survey (2001-02) and appropriate multilevel modeling this study empirically assesses the SES gradient in health and whether it varies in strength across different life stages of children aged 15 and younger (N = 45,448). The results for the interaction terms between the natural logarithm of household consumption and age groups indicate no evidence of a steeper health gradient for older children. However, health-consumption gradients are found to be sensitive to the functional form of the regression model as well as the model specification. The results for the interaction terms between consumption expenditure quintiles and age groups indicate that gradients vary in strength across ages. Not only are children from the poorest households worse off, compared to those from the richest households, but this relative disadvantage is greater among the 0-3 year olds. The inclusion of parental health status in the regression model weakens the gradients for all age groups as does the inclusion of household sources of drinking water. However, poorer children are still relatively worse off, specially the 0-3 year olds. This suggests that absolute deprivation may help explain the relative health disadvantage of younger children. Better measures of poverty alleviation are hence needed to improve children's health in a low-income country such as Vietnam. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Relaxed clocks and inferences of heterogeneous patterns of nucleotide substitution and divergence time estimates across whales and dolphins (Mammalia: Cetacea).

PubMed

Dornburg, Alex; Brandley, Matthew C; McGowen, Michael R; Near, Thomas J

2012-02-01

Various nucleotide substitution models have been developed to accommodate among lineage rate heterogeneity, thereby relaxing the assumptions of the strict molecular clock. Recently developed "uncorrelated relaxed clock" and "random local clock" (RLC) models allow decoupling of nucleotide substitution rates between descendant lineages and are thus predicted to perform better in the presence of lineage-specific rate heterogeneity. However, it is uncertain how these models perform in the presence of punctuated shifts in substitution rate, especially between closely related clades. Using cetaceans (whales and dolphins) as a case study, we test the performance of these two substitution models in estimating both molecular rates and divergence times in the presence of substantial lineage-specific rate heterogeneity. Our RLC analyses of whole mitochondrial genome alignments find evidence for up to ten clade-specific nucleotide substitution rate shifts in cetaceans. We provide evidence that in the uncorrelated relaxed clock framework, a punctuated shift in the rate of molecular evolution within a subclade results in posterior rate estimates that are either misled or intermediate between the disparate rate classes present in baleen and toothed whales. Using simulations, we demonstrate abrupt changes in rate isolated to one or a few lineages in the phylogeny can mislead rate and age estimation, even when the node of interest is calibrated. We further demonstrate how increasing prior age uncertainty can bias rate and age estimates, even while the 95% highest posterior density around age estimates decreases; in other words, increased precision for an inaccurate estimate. We interpret the use of external calibrations in divergence time studies in light of these results, suggesting that rate shifts at deep time scales may mislead inferences of absolute molecular rates and ages.

BCRA 2.0 R Package

Cancer.gov

BCRA is an R package that projects absolute risk of invasive breast cancer according to NCI’s Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (BCRAT) algorithm for specified race/ethnic groups and age intervals.

Absolute fracture risk assessment using lumbar spine and femoral neck bone density measurements: derivation and validation of a hybrid system.

PubMed

Leslie, William D; Lix, Lisa M

2011-03-01

The World Health Organization (WHO) Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) computes 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture from multiple risk factors, including femoral neck (FN) T-scores. Lumbar spine (LS) measurements are not currently part of the FRAX formulation but are used widely in clinical practice, and this creates confusion when there is spine-hip discordance. Our objective was to develop a hybrid 10-year absolute fracture risk assessment system in which nonvertebral (NV) fracture risk was assessed from the FN and clinical vertebral (V) fracture risk was assessed from the LS. We identified 37,032 women age 45 years and older undergoing baseline FN and LS dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA; 1990-2005) from a population database that contains all clinical DXA results for the Province of Manitoba, Canada. Results were linked to longitudinal health service records for physician billings and hospitalizations to identify nontrauma vertebral and nonvertebral fracture codes after bone mineral density (BMD) testing. The population was randomly divided into equal-sized derivation and validation cohorts. Using the derivation cohort, three fracture risk prediction systems were created from Cox proportional hazards models (adjusted for age and multiple FRAX risk factors): FN to predict combined all fractures, FN to predict nonvertebral fractures, and LS to predict vertebral (without nonvertebral) fractures. The hybrid system was the sum of nonvertebral risk from the FN model and vertebral risk from the LS model. The FN and hybrid systems were both strongly predictive of overall fracture risk (p < .001). In the validation cohort, ROC analysis showed marginally better performance of the hybrid system versus the FN system for overall fracture prediction (p = .24) and significantly better performance for vertebral fracture prediction (p < .001). In a discordance subgroup with FN and LS T-score differences greater than 1 SD, there was a significant improvement in overall fracture prediction with the hybrid method (p = .025). Risk reclassification under the hybrid system showed better alignment with observed fracture risk, with 6.4% of the women reclassified to a different risk category. In conclusion, a hybrid 10-year absolute fracture risk assessment system based on combining FN and LS information is feasible. The improvement in fracture risk prediction is small but supports clinical interest in a system that integrates LS in fracture risk assessment. Copyright © 2011 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Autoregressive processes with exponentially decaying probability distribution functions: applications to daily variations of a stock market index.

PubMed

Porto, Markus; Roman, H Eduardo

2002-04-01

We consider autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) processes in which the variance sigma(2)(y) depends linearly on the absolute value of the random variable y as sigma(2)(y) = a+b absolute value of y. While for the standard model, where sigma(2)(y) = a + b y(2), the corresponding probability distribution function (PDF) P(y) decays as a power law for absolute value of y-->infinity, in the linear case it decays exponentially as P(y) approximately exp(-alpha absolute value of y), with alpha = 2/b. We extend these results to the more general case sigma(2)(y) = a+b absolute value of y(q), with 0 < q < 2. We find stretched exponential decay for 1 < q < 2 and stretched Gaussian behavior for 0 < q < 1. As an application, we consider the case q=1 as our starting scheme for modeling the PDF of daily (logarithmic) variations in the Dow Jones stock market index. When the history of the ARCH process is taken into account, the resulting PDF becomes a stretched exponential even for q = 1, with a stretched exponent beta = 2/3, in a much better agreement with the empirical data.

Age-Related Differences in Maximal and Rapid Torque Characteristics of the Hip Extensors and Dynamic Postural Balance in Healthy, Young and Old Females.

PubMed

Palmer, Ty B; Thiele, Ryan M; Thompson, Brennan J

2017-02-01

Palmer, TB, Thiele, RM, and Thompson, BJ. Age-related differences in maximal and rapid torque characteristics of the hip extensors and dynamic postural balance in healthy, young and old females. J Strength Cond Res 31(2): 480-488, 2017-The purpose of this study was to examine age-related differences in maximal and rapid torque characteristics of the hip extensor muscles and dynamic postural balance in healthy, young and older females. Eleven younger (age, 26 ± 8 years) and 11 older (age, 67 ± 8 years) females performed 2 isometric maximal voluntary contractions (MVCs) of the hip extensor muscles. Absolute and relative peak torque (PT) and rate of torque development (RTD) at early (0-50 ms) and late (0-200 ms) phases of muscle contraction were examined during each MVC. Dynamic postural balance was assessed using a commercially designed balance testing device, which provides a measurement of dynamic stability based on the overall stability index (OSI). Results indicated that absolute PT and early (RTD50) and late (RTD200) RTD variables were lower (p = 0.009-0.050), and postural OSI was higher (p = 0.011) in the old compared with the younger females; however, no differences were observed for relative PT or RTD variables (p = 0.113-0.895). A significant relationship was also observed in the older (r = -0.601; p = 0.050) but not the younger (r = -0.132; p = 0.698) females between RTD50 and OSI. The lower absolute PT and RTD and higher OSI values for the old females may contribute to the increased functional limitations often observed in older adults. The significant relationship observed in the older females between OSI and RTD50 perhaps suggests that these age-related declines in explosive strength may be an important characteristic relevant to dynamic balance scores, especially in older populations.

Association between age-related reductions in testosterone and risk of prostate cancer-An analysis of patients' data with prostatic diseases.

PubMed

Wang, Kai; Chen, Xinguang; Bird, Victoria Y; Gerke, Travis A; Manini, Todd M; Prosperi, Mattia

2017-11-01

The relationship between serum total testosterone and prostate cancer (PCa) risk is controversial. The hypothesis that faster age-related reduction in testosterone is linked with increased PCa risk remains untested. We conducted our study at a tertiary-level hospital in southeast of the USA, and derived data from the Medical Registry Database of individuals that were diagnosed of any prostate-related disease from 2001 to 2015. Cases were those diagnosed of PCa and had one or more measurements of testosterone prior to PCa diagnosis. Controls were those without PCa and had one or more testosterone measurements. Multivariable logistic regression models for PCa risk of absolute levels (one-time measure and 5-year average) and annual change in testosterone were respectively constructed. Among a total of 1,559 patients, 217 were PCa cases, and neither one-time measure nor 5-year average of testosterone was found to be significantly associated with PCa risk. Among the 379 patients with two or more testosterone measurements, 27 were PCa cases. For every 10 ng/dL increment in annual reduction of testosterone, the risk of PCa would increase by 14% [adjusted odds ratio, 1.14; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.03-1.25]. Compared to patients with a relatively stable testosterone, patients with an annual testosterone reduction of more than 30 ng/dL had 5.03 [95% CI: 1.53, 16.55] fold increase in PCa risk. This implies a faster age-related reduction in, but not absolute level of serum total testosterone as a risk factor for PCa. Further longitudinal studies are needed to confirm this finding. © 2017 UICC.

Effect of Postnatal Myostatin Inhibition on Bite Mechanics in Mice.

PubMed

Williams, Susan H; Lozier, Nicholas R; Montuelle, Stéphane J; de Lacalle, Sonsoles

2015-01-01

As a negative regulator of muscle size, myostatin (Mstn) impacts the force-production capabilities of skeletal muscles. In the masticatory system, measures of temporalis-stimulated bite forces in constitutive myostatin KOs suggest an absolute, but not relative, increase in jaw-muscle force. Here, we assess the phenotypic and physiologic impact of postnatal myostatin inhibition on bite mechanics using an inducible conditional KO mouse in which myostatin is inhibited with doxycycline (DOX). Given the increased control over the timing of gene inactivation in this model, it may be more clinically-relevant for developing interventions for age-associated changes in the musculoskeletal system. DOX was administered for 12 weeks starting at age 4 months, during which time food intake was monitored. Sex, age and strain-matched controls were given the same food without DOX. Bite forces were recorded just prior to euthanasia after which muscle and skeletal data were collected. Food intake did not differ between control or DOX animals within each sex. DOX males were significantly larger and had significantly larger masseters than controls, but DOX and control females did not differ. Although there was a tendency towards higher absolute bite forces in DOX animals, this was not significant, and bite forces normalized to masseter mass did not differ. Mechanical advantage for incisor biting increased in the DOX group due to longer masseter moment arms, likely due to a more anteriorly-placed masseter insertion. Despite only a moderate increase in bite force in DOX males and none in DOX females, the increase in masseter mass in males indicates a potentially positive impact on jaw muscles. Our data suggest a sexual dimorphism in the role of mstn, and as such investigations into the sex-specific outcomes is warranted.

External validation of the Garvan nomograms for predicting absolute fracture risk: the Tromsø study.

PubMed

Ahmed, Luai A; Nguyen, Nguyen D; Bjørnerem, Åshild; Joakimsen, Ragnar M; Jørgensen, Lone; Størmer, Jan; Bliuc, Dana; Center, Jacqueline R; Eisman, John A; Nguyen, Tuan V; Emaus, Nina

2014-01-01

Absolute risk estimation is a preferred approach for assessing fracture risk and treatment decision making. This study aimed to evaluate and validate the predictive performance of the Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator in a Norwegian cohort. The analysis included 1637 women and 1355 aged 60+ years from the Tromsø study. All incident fragility fractures between 2001 and 2009 were registered. The predicted probabilities of non-vertebral osteoporotic and hip fractures were determined using models with and without BMD. The discrimination and calibration of the models were assessed. Reclassification analysis was used to compare the models performance. The incidence of osteoporotic and hip fracture was 31.5 and 8.6 per 1000 population in women, respectively; in men the corresponding incidence was 12.2 and 5.1. The predicted 5-year and 10-year probability of fractures was consistently higher in the fracture group than the non-fracture group for all models. The 10-year predicted probabilities of hip fracture in those with fracture was 2.8 (women) to 3.1 times (men) higher than those without fracture. There was a close agreement between predicted and observed risk in both sexes and up to the fifth quintile. Among those in the highest quintile of risk, the models over-estimated the risk of fracture. Models with BMD performed better than models with body weight in correct classification of risk in individuals with and without fracture. The overall net decrease in reclassification of the model with weight compared to the model with BMD was 10.6% (p = 0.008) in women and 17.2% (p = 0.001) in men for osteoporotic fractures, and 13.3% (p = 0.07) in women and 17.5% (p = 0.09) in men for hip fracture. The Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator is valid and clinically useful in identifying individuals at high risk of fracture. The models with BMD performed better than those with body weight in fracture risk prediction.

Evidence Supporting an Early as Well as Late Heavy Bombardment on the Moon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frey, Herbert

2015-01-01

Evidence supporting an intense early bombardment on the Moon in addition to the traditional Late Heavy Bombardment at approx. 4 BY ago include the distribution of N(50) Crater Retention Ages (CRAs) for candidate basins, a variety of absolute age scenarios for both a "young" and an "old" Nectaris age, and the decreasing contrasts in both topographic relief and Bouguer gravity with increasing CRA.

Thromboembolic Risk, Bleeding Outcomes and Effect of Different Antithrombotic Strategies in Very Elderly Patients With Atrial Fibrillation: A Sub-Analysis From the PREFER in AF (PREvention oF Thromboembolic Events-European Registry in Atrial Fibrillation).

PubMed

Patti, Giuseppe; Lucerna, Markus; Pecen, Ladislav; Siller-Matula, Jolanta M; Cavallari, Ilaria; Kirchhof, Paulus; De Caterina, Raffaele

2017-07-23

Increasing age predisposes to both thromboembolic and bleeding events in patients with atrial fibrillation; therefore, balancing risks and benefits of antithrombotic strategies in older populations is crucial. We investigated 1-year outcome with different antithrombotic approaches in very elderly atrial fibrillation patients (age ≥85 years) compared with younger patients. We accessed individual patients' data from the prospective PREFER in AF (PREvention oF thromboembolic events-European Registry in Atrial Fibrillation), compared outcomes with and without oral anticoagulation (OAC), and estimated weighed net clinical benefit in different age groups. A total of 6412 patients, 505 of whom were aged ≥85 years, were analyzed. In patients aged <85 years, the incidence of thromboembolic events was 2.8%/year without OAC versus 2.3%/year with OAC (0.5% absolute reduction); in patients aged ≥85 years, it was 6.3%/year versus 4.3%/year (2% absolute reduction). In very elderly patients, the risk of major bleeding was higher than in younger patients, but similar in patients on OAC and in those on antiplatelet therapy or without antithrombotic treatment (4.0%/year versus 4.2%/year; P =0.77). OAC was overall associated with weighted net clinical benefit, assigning weights to nonfatal events according to their prognostic implication for subsequent death (-2.19%; CI, -4.23%, -0.15%; P =0.036). We found a significant gradient of this benefit as a function of age, with the oldest patients deriving the highest benefit. Because the risk of stroke increases with age more than the risk of bleeding, the absolute benefit of OAC is highest in very elderly patients, where it, by far, outweighs the risk of bleeding, with the greatest net clinical benefit in such patients. © 2017 The Authors and Daiichi Sankyo Europe GmbH. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Age-associated loss of selectivity in human olfactory sensory neurons

PubMed Central

Rawson, Nancy E.; Gomez, George; Cowart, Beverly J.; Kriete, Andres; Pribitkin, Edmund; Restrepo, Diego

2011-01-01

We report a cross-sectional study of olfactory impairment with age based on both odorant-stimulated responses of human olfactory sensory neurons (OSNs) and tests of olfactory threshold sensitivity. A total of 621 OSNs from 440 subjects in two age groups of younger ( 45 years) and older (≥60 years) subjects were investigated using fluorescence intensity ratio fura-2 imaging. OSNs were tested for responses to two odorant mixtures, as well as to subsets of and individual odors in those mixtures. Whereas cells from younger donors were highly selective in the odorants to which they responded, cells from older donors were more likely to respond to multiple odor stimuli, despite a loss in these subjects’ absolute olfactory sensitivity, suggesting a loss of specificity. This degradation in peripheral cellular specificity may impact odor discrimination and olfactory adaptation in the elderly. It is also possible that chronic adaptation as a result of reduced specificity contributes to observed declines in absolute sensitivity. PMID:22074806

A method for determining weights for excess relative risk and excess absolute risk when applied in the calculation of lifetime risk of cancer from radiation exposure.

PubMed

Walsh, Linda; Schneider, Uwe

2013-03-01

Radiation-related risks of cancer can be transported from one population to another population at risk, for the purpose of calculating lifetime risks from radiation exposure. Transfer via excess relative risks (ERR) or excess absolute risks (EAR) or a mixture of both (i.e., from the life span study (LSS) of Japanese atomic bomb survivors) has been done in the past based on qualitative weighting. Consequently, the values of the weights applied and the method of application of the weights (i.e., as additive or geometric weighted means) have varied both between reports produced at different times by the same regulatory body and also between reports produced at similar times by different regulatory bodies. Since the gender and age patterns are often markedly different between EAR and ERR models, it is useful to have an evidence-based method for determining the relative goodness of fit of such models to the data. This paper identifies a method, using Akaike model weights, which could aid expert judgment and be applied to help to achieve consistency of approach and quantitative evidence-based results in future health risk assessments. The results of applying this method to recent LSS cancer incidence models are that the relative EAR weighting by cancer solid cancer site, on a scale of 0-1, is zero for breast and colon, 0.02 for all solid, 0.03 for lung, 0.08 for liver, 0.15 for thyroid, 0.18 for bladder and 0.93 for stomach. The EAR weighting for female breast cancer increases from 0 to 0.3, if a generally observed change in the trend between female age-specific breast cancer incidence rates and attained age, associated with menopause, is accounted for in the EAR model. Application of this method to preferred models from a study of multi-model inference from many models fitted to the LSS leukemia mortality data, results in an EAR weighting of 0. From these results it can be seen that lifetime risk transfer is most highly weighted by EAR only for stomach cancer. However, the generalization and interpretation of radiation effect estimates based on the LSS cancer data, when projected to other populations, are particularly uncertain if considerable differences exist between site-specific baseline rates in the LSS and the other populations of interest. Definitive conclusions, regarding the appropriate method for transporting cancer risks, are limited by a lack of knowledge in several areas including unknown factors and uncertainties in biological mechanisms and genetic and environmental risk factors for carcinogenesis; uncertainties in radiation dosimetry; and insufficient statistical power and/or incomplete follow-up in data from radio-epidemiological studies.

A modelling approach to assessing the timescale uncertainties in proxy series with chronological errors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Divine, D.; Godtliebsen, F.; Rue, H.

2012-04-01

Detailed knowledge of past climate variations is of high importance for gaining a better insight into the possible future climate scenarios. The relative shortness of available high quality instrumental climate data conditions the use of various climate proxy archives in making inference about past climate evolution. It, however, requires an accurate assessment of timescale errors in proxy-based paleoclimatic reconstructions. We here propose an approach to assessment of timescale errors in proxy-based series with chronological uncertainties. The method relies on approximation of the physical process(es) forming a proxy archive by a random Gamma process. Parameters of the process are partly data-driven and partly determined from prior assumptions. For a particular case of a linear accumulation model and absolutely dated tie points an analytical solution is found suggesting the Beta-distributed probability density on age estimates along the length of a proxy archive. In a general situation of uncertainties in the ages of the tie points the proposed method employs MCMC simulations of age-depth profiles yielding empirical confidence intervals on the constructed piecewise linear best guess timescale. It is suggested that the approach can be further extended to a more general case of a time-varying expected accumulation between the tie points. The approach is illustrated by using two ice and two lake/marine sediment cores representing the typical examples of paleoproxy archives with age models constructed using tie points of mixed origin.

Forensic age estimation by morphometric analysis of the manubrium from 3D MR images.

PubMed

Martínez Vera, Naira P; Höller, Johannes; Widek, Thomas; Neumayer, Bernhard; Ehammer, Thomas; Urschler, Martin

2017-08-01

Forensic age estimation research based on skeletal structures focuses on patterns of growth and development using different bones. In this work, our aim was to study growth-related evolution of the manubrium in living adolescents and young adults using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), which is an image acquisition modality that does not involve ionizing radiation. In a first step, individual manubrium and subject features were correlated with age, which confirmed a statistically significant change of manubrium volume (M vol :p<0.01, R 2 ¯=0.50) and surface area (M sur :p<0.01, R 2 ¯=0.53) for the studied age range. Additionally, shapes of the manubria were for the first time investigated using principal component analysis. The decomposition of the data in principal components allowed to analyse the contribution of each component to total shape variation. With 13 principal components, ∼96% of shape variation could be described (M shp :p<0.01, R 2 ¯=0.60). Multiple linear regression analysis modelled the relationship between the statistically best correlated variables and age. Models including manubrium shape, volume or surface area divided by the height of the subject (Y∼M shp M sur /S h :p<0.01, R 2 ¯=0.71; Y∼M shp M vol /S h :p<0.01, R 2 ¯=0.72) presented a standard error of estimate of two years. In order to estimate the accuracy of these two manubrium-based age estimation models, cross validation experiments predicting age on held-out test sets were performed. Median absolute difference of predicted and known chronological age was 1.18 years for the best performing model (Y∼M shp M sur /S h :p<0.01, R p 2 =0.67). In conclusion, despite limitations in determining legal majority age, manubrium morphometry analysis presented statistically significant results for skeletal age estimation, which indicates that this bone structure may be considered as a new candidate in multi-factorial MRI-based age estimation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dating Tectonic Activity on Mercury’s Large-Scale Lobate-Scarp Thrust Faults

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barlow, Nadine G.; E Banks, Maria

2017-10-01

Mercury’s widespread large-scale lobate-scarp thrust faults reveal that the planet’s tectonic history has been dominated by global contraction, primarily due to cooling of its interior. Constraining the timing and duration of this contraction provides key insight into Mercury’s thermal and geologic evolution. We combine two techniques to enhance the statistical validity of size-frequency distribution crater analyses and constrain timing of the 1) earliest and 2) most recent detectable activity on several of Mercury’s largest lobate-scarp thrust faults. We use the sizes of craters directly transected by or superposed on the edge of the scarp face to define a count area around the scarp, a method we call the Modified Buffered Crater Counting Technique (MBCCT). We developed the MBCCT to avoid the issue of a near-zero scarp width since feature widths are included in area calculations of the commonly used Buffered Crater Counting Technique (BCCT). Since only craters directly intersecting the scarp face edge conclusively show evidence of crosscutting relations, we increase the number of craters in our analysis (and reduce uncertainties) by using the morphologic degradation state (i.e. relative age) of these intersecting craters to classify other similarly degraded craters within the count area (i.e., those with the same relative age) as superposing or transected. The resulting crater counts are divided into two categories: transected craters constrain the earliest possible activity and superposed craters constrain the most recent detectable activity. Absolute ages are computed for each population using the Marchi et al. [2009] model production function. A test of the Blossom lobate scarp indicates the MBCCT gives statistically equivalent results to the BCCT. We find that all scarps in this study crosscut surfaces Tolstojan or older in age (>~3.7 Ga). The most recent detectable activity along lobate-scarp thrust faults ranges from Calorian to Kuiperian (~3.7 Ga to present). Our results complement previous relative-age studies with absolute ages and indicate global contraction continued over the last ~3-4 Gyr. At least some thrust fault activity occurred on Mercury in relatively recent times (<280 Ma).

An Application of Robust Method in Multiple Linear Regression Model toward Credit Card Debt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amira Azmi, Nur; Saifullah Rusiman, Mohd; Khalid, Kamil; Roslan, Rozaini; Sufahani, Suliadi; Mohamad, Mahathir; Salleh, Rohayu Mohd; Hamzah, Nur Shamsidah Amir

2018-04-01

Credit card is a convenient alternative replaced cash or cheque, and it is essential component for electronic and internet commerce. In this study, the researchers attempt to determine the relationship and significance variables between credit card debt and demographic variables such as age, household income, education level, years with current employer, years at current address, debt to income ratio and other debt. The provided data covers 850 customers information. There are three methods that applied to the credit card debt data which are multiple linear regression (MLR) models, MLR models with least quartile difference (LQD) method and MLR models with mean absolute deviation method. After comparing among three methods, it is found that MLR model with LQD method became the best model with the lowest value of mean square error (MSE). According to the final model, it shows that the years with current employer, years at current address, household income in thousands and debt to income ratio are positively associated with the amount of credit debt. Meanwhile variables for age, level of education and other debt are negatively associated with amount of credit debt. This study may serve as a reference for the bank company by using robust methods, so that they could better understand their options and choice that is best aligned with their goals for inference regarding to the credit card debt.

Time-series modeling and prediction of global monthly absolute temperature for environmental decision making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, Liming; Yang, Guixia; Van Ranst, Eric; Tang, Huajun

2013-03-01

A generalized, structural, time series modeling framework was developed to analyze the monthly records of absolute surface temperature, one of the most important environmental parameters, using a deterministicstochastic combined (DSC) approach. Although the development of the framework was based on the characterization of the variation patterns of a global dataset, the methodology could be applied to any monthly absolute temperature record. Deterministic processes were used to characterize the variation patterns of the global trend and the cyclic oscillations of the temperature signal, involving polynomial functions and the Fourier method, respectively, while stochastic processes were employed to account for any remaining patterns in the temperature signal, involving seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models. A prediction of the monthly global surface temperature during the second decade of the 21st century using the DSC model shows that the global temperature will likely continue to rise at twice the average rate of the past 150 years. The evaluation of prediction accuracy shows that DSC models perform systematically well against selected models of other authors, suggesting that DSC models, when coupled with other ecoenvironmental models, can be used as a supplemental tool for short-term (˜10-year) environmental planning and decision making.

An absolute photometric system at 10 and 20 microns

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rieke, G. H.; Lebofsky, M. J.; Low, F. J.

1985-01-01

Two new direct calibrations at 10 and 20 microns are presented in which terrestrial flux standards are referred to infrared standard stars. These measurements give both good agreement and higher accuracy when compared with previous direct calibrations. As a result, the absolute calibrations at 10 and 20 microns have now been determined with accuracies of 3 and 8 percent, respectively. A variety of absolute calibrations based on extrapolation of stellar spectra from the visible to 10 microns are reviewed. Current atmospheric models of A-type stars underestimate their fluxes by about 10 percent at 10 microns, whereas models of solar-type stars agree well with the direct calibrations. The calibration at 20 microns can probably be determined to about 5 percent by extrapolation from the more accurate result at 10 microns. The photometric system at 10 and 20 microns is updated to reflect the new absolute calibration, to base its zero point directly on the colors of A0 stars, and to improve the accuracy in the comparison of the standard stars.

A description of phases with induced hybridisation at finite temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golosov, D. I.

2018-05-01

In an extended Falicov-Kimball model, an excitonic insulator phase can be stabilised at zero temperature. With increasing temperature, the excitonic order parameter (interaction-induced hybridisation on-site, characterised by the absolute value and phase) eventually becomes disordered, which involves fluctuations of both its phase and (at higher T) its absolute value. In order to build an adequate mean field description, it is important to clarify the nature of degrees of freedom associated with the phase and absolute value of the induced hybridisation, and the corresponding phase space volume. We show that a possible description is provided by the SU(4) parametrisation on-site. In principle, this allows to describe both the lower-temperature regime where phase fluctuations destroy the long-range order, and the higher temperature crossover corresponding to a decrease of absolute value of the hybridisation relative to the fluctuations level. This picture is also expected to be relevant in other contexts, including the Kondo lattice model.

Mathematical analysis of an age-structured population model with space-limited recruitment.

PubMed

Kamioka, Katumi

2005-11-01

In this paper, we investigate structured population model of marine invertebrate whose life stage is composed of sessile adults and pelagic larvae, such as barnacles contained in a local habitat. First we formulate the basic model as an Cauchy problem on a Banach space to discuss the existence and uniqueness of non-negative solution. Next we define the basic reproduction number R0 to formulate the invasion condition under which the larvae can successfully settle down in the completely vacant habitat. Subsequently we examine existence and stability of steady states. We show that the trivial steady state is globally asymptotically stable if R0 < or = 1, whereas it is unstable if R0 > 1. Furthermore, we show that a positive (non-trivial) steady state uniquely exists if R0 > 1 and it is locally asymptotically stable as far as absolute value of R0 - 1 is small enough.

Method for experimental investigation of transient operation on Laval test stand for model size turbines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraser, R.; Coulaud, M.; Aeschlimann, V.; Lemay, J.; Deschenes, C.

2016-11-01

With the growing proportion of inconstant energy source as wind and solar, hydroelectricity becomes a first class source of peak energy in order to regularize the grid. The important increase of start - stop cycles may then cause a premature ageing of runners by both a higher number of cycles in stress fluctuations and by reaching a higher stress level in absolute. Aiming to sustain good quality development on fully homologous scale model turbines, the Hydraulic Machines Laboratory (LAMH) of Laval University has developed a methodology to operate model size turbines on transient regimes such as start-up, stop or load rejection on its test stand. This methodology allows maintaining a constant head while the wicket gates are opening or closing in a representative speed on the model scale of what is made on the prototype. This paper first presents the opening speed on model based on dimensionless numbers, the methodology itself and its application. Then both its limitation and the first results using a bulb turbine are detailed.

Stroke trends in an aging population. The Technology Assessment Methods Project Team.

PubMed

Niessen, L W; Barendregt, J J; Bonneux, L; Koudstaal, P J

1993-07-01

Trends in stroke incidence and survival determine changes in stroke morbidity and mortality. This study examines the extent of the incidence decline and survival improvement in the Netherlands from 1979 to 1989. In addition, it projects future changes in stroke morbidity during the period 1985 to 2005, when the country's population will be aging. A state-event transition model is used, which combines Dutch population projections and existing data on stroke epidemiology. Based on the clinical course of stroke, the model describes historical national age- and sex-specific hospital admission and mortality rates for stroke. It extrapolates observed trends and projects future changes in stroke morbidity rates. There is evidence of a continuing incidence decline. The most plausible rate of change is an annual decline of -1.9% (range, -1.7% to -2.1%) for men and -2.4% (range, -2.3% to -2.8%) for women. Projecting a constant mortality decline, the model shows a 35% decrease of the stroke incidence rate for a period of 20 years. Prevalence rates for major stroke will decline among the younger age groups but increase among the oldest because of increased survival in the latter. In absolute numbers this results in an 18% decrease of acute stroke episodes and an 11% increase of major stroke cases. The increase in survival cannot fully explain the observed mortality decline and, therefore, a concomitant incidence decline has to be assumed. Aging of the population partially outweighs the effect of an incidence decline on the total burden of stroke. Increase in cardiovascular survival leads to a further increase in major stroke prevalence among the oldest age groups.

Absolute Calibration of Optical Satellite Sensors Using Libya 4 Pseudo Invariant Calibration Site

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mishra, Nischal; Helder, Dennis; Angal, Amit; Choi, Jason; Xiong, Xiaoxiong

2014-01-01

The objective of this paper is to report the improvements in an empirical absolute calibration model developed at South Dakota State University using Libya 4 (+28.55 deg, +23.39 deg) pseudo invariant calibration site (PICS). The approach was based on use of the Terra MODIS as the radiometer to develop an absolute calibration model for the spectral channels covered by this instrument from visible to shortwave infrared. Earth Observing One (EO-1) Hyperion, with a spectral resolution of 10 nm, was used to extend the model to cover visible and near-infrared regions. A simple Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution function (BRDF) model was generated using Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observations over Libya 4 and the resulting model was validated with nadir data acquired from satellite sensors such as Aqua MODIS and Landsat 7 (L7) Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+). The improvements in the absolute calibration model to account for the BRDF due to off-nadir measurements and annual variations in the atmosphere are summarized. BRDF models due to off-nadir viewing angles have been derived using the measurements from EO-1 Hyperion. In addition to L7 ETM+, measurements from other sensors such as Aqua MODIS, UK-2 Disaster Monitoring Constellation (DMC), ENVISAT Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) and Operational Land Imager (OLI) onboard Landsat 8 (L8), which was launched in February 2013, were employed to validate the model. These satellite sensors differ in terms of the width of their spectral bandpasses, overpass time, off-nadir-viewing capabilities, spatial resolution and temporal revisit time, etc. The results demonstrate that the proposed empirical calibration model has accuracy of the order of 3% with an uncertainty of about 2% for the sensors used in the study.

A Simple Model Predicting Individual Weight Change in Humans

PubMed Central

Thomas, Diana M.; Martin, Corby K.; Heymsfield, Steven; Redman, Leanne M.; Schoeller, Dale A.; Levine, James A.

2010-01-01

Excessive weight in adults is a national concern with over 2/3 of the US population deemed overweight. Because being overweight has been correlated to numerous diseases such as heart disease and type 2 diabetes, there is a need to understand mechanisms and predict outcomes of weight change and weight maintenance. A simple mathematical model that accurately predicts individual weight change offers opportunities to understand how individuals lose and gain weight and can be used to foster patient adherence to diets in clinical settings. For this purpose, we developed a one dimensional differential equation model of weight change based on the energy balance equation is paired to an algebraic relationship between fat free mass and fat mass derived from a large nationally representative sample of recently released data collected by the Centers for Disease Control. We validate the model's ability to predict individual participants’ weight change by comparing model estimates of final weight data from two recent underfeeding studies and one overfeeding study. Mean absolute error and standard deviation between model predictions and observed measurements of final weights are less than 1.8 ± 1.3 kg for the underfeeding studies and 2.5 ± 1.6 kg for the overfeeding study. Comparison of the model predictions to other one dimensional models of weight change shows improvement in mean absolute error, standard deviation of mean absolute error, and group mean predictions. The maximum absolute individual error decreased by approximately 60% substantiating reliability in individual weight change predictions. The model provides a viable method for estimating individual weight change as a result of changes in intake and determining individual dietary adherence during weight change studies. PMID:24707319

Spectral irradiance calibration in the infrared. I - Ground-based and IRAS broadband calibrations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cohen, Martin; Walker, Russell G.; Barlow, Michael J.; Deacon, John R.

1992-01-01

Absolutely calibrated versions of realistic model atmosphere calculations for Sirius and Vega by Kurucz (1991) are presented and used as a basis to offer a new absolute calibration of infrared broad and narrow filters. In-band fluxes for Vega are obtained and defined to be zero magnitude at all wavelengths shortward of 20 microns. Existing infrared photometry is used differentially to establish an absolute scale of the new Sirius model, yielding an angular diameter within 1 sigma of the mean determined interferometrically by Hanbury Brown et al. (1974). The use of Sirius as a primary infrared stellar standard beyond the 20 micron region is suggested. Isophotal wavelengths and monochromatic flux densities for both Vega and Sirius are tabulated.

The Impact of Different Absolute Solar Irradiance Values on Current Climate Model Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rind, David H.; Lean, Judith L.; Jonas, Jeffrey

2014-01-01

Simulations of the preindustrial and doubled CO2 climates are made with the GISS Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model 3 using two different estimates of the absolute solar irradiance value: a higher value measured by solar radiometers in the 1990s and a lower value measured recently by the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment. Each of the model simulations is adjusted to achieve global energy balance; without this adjustment the difference in irradiance produces a global temperature change of 0.48C, comparable to the cooling estimated for the Maunder Minimum. The results indicate that by altering cloud cover the model properly compensates for the different absolute solar irradiance values on a global level when simulating both preindustrial and doubled CO2 climates. On a regional level, the preindustrial climate simulations and the patterns of change with doubled CO2 concentrations are again remarkably similar, but there are some differences. Using a higher absolute solar irradiance value and the requisite cloud cover affects the model's depictions of high-latitude surface air temperature, sea level pressure, and stratospheric ozone, as well as tropical precipitation. In the climate change experiments it leads to an underestimation of North Atlantic warming, reduced precipitation in the tropical western Pacific, and smaller total ozone growth at high northern latitudes. Although significant, these differences are typically modest compared with the magnitude of the regional changes expected for doubled greenhouse gas concentrations. Nevertheless, the model simulations demonstrate that achieving the highest possible fidelity when simulating regional climate change requires that climate models use as input the most accurate (lower) solar irradiance value.

Source apportionment of soil heavy metals using robust absolute principal component scores-robust geographically weighted regression (RAPCS-RGWR) receptor model.

PubMed

Qu, Mingkai; Wang, Yan; Huang, Biao; Zhao, Yongcun

2018-06-01

The traditional source apportionment models, such as absolute principal component scores-multiple linear regression (APCS-MLR), are usually susceptible to outliers, which may be widely present in the regional geochemical dataset. Furthermore, the models are merely built on variable space instead of geographical space and thus cannot effectively capture the local spatial characteristics of each source contributions. To overcome the limitations, a new receptor model, robust absolute principal component scores-robust geographically weighted regression (RAPCS-RGWR), was proposed based on the traditional APCS-MLR model. Then, the new method was applied to the source apportionment of soil metal elements in a region of Wuhan City, China as a case study. Evaluations revealed that: (i) RAPCS-RGWR model had better performance than APCS-MLR model in the identification of the major sources of soil metal elements, and (ii) source contributions estimated by RAPCS-RGWR model were more close to the true soil metal concentrations than that estimated by APCS-MLR model. It is shown that the proposed RAPCS-RGWR model is a more effective source apportionment method than APCS-MLR (i.e., non-robust and global model) in dealing with the regional geochemical dataset. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Systematic feature selection improves accuracy of methylation-based forensic age estimation in Han Chinese males.

PubMed

Feng, Lei; Peng, Fuduan; Li, Shanfei; Jiang, Li; Sun, Hui; Ji, Anquan; Zeng, Changqing; Li, Caixia; Liu, Fan

2018-03-23

Estimating individual age from biomarkers may provide key information facilitating forensic investigations. Recent progress has shown DNA methylation at age-associated CpG sites as the most informative biomarkers for estimating the individual age of an unknown donor. Optimal feature selection plays a critical role in determining the performance of the final prediction model. In this study we investigate methylation levels at 153 age-associated CpG sites from 21 previously reported genomic regions using the EpiTYPER system for their predictive power on individual age in 390 Han Chinese males ranging from 15 to 75 years of age. We conducted a systematic feature selection using a stepwise backward multiple linear regression analysis as well as an exhaustive searching algorithm. Both approaches identified the same subset of 9 CpG sites, which in linear combination provided the optimal model fitting with mean absolute deviation (MAD) of 2.89 years of age and explainable variance (R 2 ) of 0.92. The final model was validated in two independent Han Chinese male samples (validation set 1, N = 65, MAD = 2.49, R 2  = 0.95, and validation set 2, N = 62, MAD = 3.36, R 2  = 0.89). Other competing models such as support vector machine and artificial neural network did not outperform the linear model to any noticeable degree. The validation set 1 was additionally analyzed using Pyrosequencing technology for cross-platform validation and was termed as validation set 3. Directly applying our model, in which the methylation levels were detected by the EpiTYPER system, to the data from pyrosequencing technology showed, however, less accurate results in terms of MAD (validation set 3, N = 65 Han Chinese males, MAD = 4.20, R 2  = 0.93), suggesting the presence of a batch effect between different data generation platforms. This batch effect could be partially overcome by a z-score transformation (MAD = 2.76, R 2  = 0.93). Overall, our systematic feature selection identified 9 CpG sites as the optimal subset for forensic age estimation and the prediction model consisting of these 9 markers demonstrated high potential in forensic practice. An age estimator implementing our prediction model allowing missing markers is freely available at http://liufan.big.ac.cn/AgePrediction. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On recontamination and directional-bias problems in Monte Carlo simulation of PDF turbulence models. [probability density function

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hsu, Andrew T.

1992-01-01

Turbulent combustion can not be simulated adequately by conventional moment closure turbulent models. The probability density function (PDF) method offers an attractive alternative: in a PDF model, the chemical source terms are closed and do not require additional models. Because the number of computational operations grows only linearly in the Monte Carlo scheme, it is chosen over finite differencing schemes. A grid dependent Monte Carlo scheme following J.Y. Chen and W. Kollmann has been studied in the present work. It was found that in order to conserve the mass fractions absolutely, one needs to add further restrictions to the scheme, namely alpha(sub j) + gamma(sub j) = alpha(sub j - 1) + gamma(sub j + 1). A new algorithm was devised that satisfied this restriction in the case of pure diffusion or uniform flow problems. Using examples, it is shown that absolute conservation can be achieved. Although for non-uniform flows absolute conservation seems impossible, the present scheme has reduced the error considerably.

Monte Carlo Modeling-Based Digital Loop-Mediated Isothermal Amplification on a Spiral Chip for Absolute Quantification of Nucleic Acids.

PubMed

Xia, Yun; Yan, Shuangqian; Zhang, Xian; Ma, Peng; Du, Wei; Feng, Xiaojun; Liu, Bi-Feng

2017-03-21

Digital loop-mediated isothermal amplification (dLAMP) is an attractive approach for absolute quantification of nucleic acids with high sensitivity and selectivity. Theoretical and numerical analysis of dLAMP provides necessary guidance for the design and analysis of dLAMP devices. In this work, a mathematical model was proposed on the basis of the Monte Carlo method and the theories of Poisson statistics and chemometrics. To examine the established model, we fabricated a spiral chip with 1200 uniform and discrete reaction chambers (9.6 nL) for absolute quantification of pathogenic DNA samples by dLAMP. Under the optimized conditions, dLAMP analysis on the spiral chip realized quantification of nucleic acids spanning over 4 orders of magnitude in concentration with sensitivity as low as 8.7 × 10 -2 copies/μL in 40 min. The experimental results were consistent with the proposed mathematical model, which could provide useful guideline for future development of dLAMP devices.

Calibration Against the Moon. I: A Disk-Resolved Lunar Model for Absolute Reflectance Calibration

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and...3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Calibration against the Moon I: A disk- resolved lunar model for absolute reflectance...of the disk- resolved Moon at visible to near infrared wavelengths. It has been developed in order to use the Moon as a calibration reference

On the Photometric Calibration of FORS2 and the Sloan Digital Sky Survey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bramich, D.; Moehler, S.; Coccato, L.; Freudling, W.; Garcia-Dabó, C. E.; Müller, P.; Saviane, I.

2012-09-01

An accurate absolute calibration of photometric data to place them on a standard magnitude scale is very important for many science goals. Absolute calibration requires the observation of photometric standard stars and analysis of the observations with an appropriate photometric model including all relevant effects. In the FORS Absolute Photometry (FAP) project, we have developed a standard star observing strategy and modelling procedure that enables calibration of science target photometry to better than 3% accuracy on photometrically stable nights given sufficient signal-to-noise. In the application of this photometric modelling to large photometric databases, we have investigated the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and found systematic trends in the published photometric data. The amplitudes of these trends are similar to the reported typical precision (˜1% and ˜2%) of the SDSS photometry in the griz- and u-bands, respectively.

Biogeographic Dating of Speciation Times Using Paleogeographically Informed Processes

PubMed Central

Landis, Michael J.

2017-01-01

Abstract Standard models of molecular evolution cannot estimate absolute speciation times alone, and require external calibrations to do so, such as fossils. Because fossil calibration methods rely on the incomplete fossil record, a great number of nodes in the tree of life cannot be dated precisely. However, many major paleogeographical events are dated, and since biogeographic processes depend on paleogeographical conditions, biogeographic dating may be used as an alternative or complementary method to fossil dating. I demonstrate how a time-stratified biogeographic stochastic process may be used to estimate absolute divergence times by conditioning on dated paleogeographical events. Informed by the current paleogeographical literature, I construct an empirical dispersal graph using 25 areas and 26 epochs for the past 540 Ma of Earth’s history. Simulations indicate biogeographic dating performs well so long as paleogeography imposes constraint on biogeographic character evolution. To gauge whether biogeographic dating may be of practical use, I analyzed the well-studied turtle clade (Testudines) to assess how well biogeographic dating fares when compared to fossil-calibrated dating estimates reported in the literature. Fossil-free biogeographic dating estimated the age of the most recent common ancestor of extant turtles to be from the Late Triassic, which is consistent with fossil-based estimates. Dating precision improves further when including a root node fossil calibration. The described model, paleogeographical dispersal graph, and analysis scripts are available for use with RevBayes. PMID:27155009

Shifts in Key Time Points and Strategies for a Multisegment Motor Task in Healthy Aging Subjects.

PubMed

Casteran, Matthieu; Hilt, Pauline M; Mourey, France; Manckoundia, Patrick; French, Robert; Thomas, Elizabeth

2018-05-05

In this study, we compared key temporal points in the whole body pointing movement of healthy aging and young subjects. During this movement, subject leans forward from a standing position to reach a target. As it involves forward inclination of the trunk, the movement creates a risk for falling. We examined two strategic time points during the task-first, the crossover point where the velocity of the center of mass (CoM) in the vertical dimension outstripped the velocity in the anteroposterior dimension and secondly, the time to peak of the CoM velocity profile. Transitions to stabilizing postures occur at these time points. They both occurred earlier in aging subjects. The crossover point also showed adjustments with target distance in aging subjects, while this was not observed in younger subjects. The shifts in these key time points could not be attributed to differences in movement duration between the two groups. Investigation with an optimal control model showed that the temporal adjustment as a function of target distance in the healthy aging subjects fits into a strategy that emphasized equilibrium maintenance rather than absolute work as a control strategy.

The existence of negative absolute temperatures in Axelrod’s social influence model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villegas-Febres, J. C.; Olivares-Rivas, W.

2008-06-01

We introduce the concept of temperature as an order parameter in the standard Axelrod’s social influence model. It is defined as the relation between suitably defined entropy and energy functions, T=(. We show that at the critical point, where the order/disorder transition occurs, this absolute temperature changes in sign. At this point, which corresponds to the transition homogeneous/heterogeneous culture, the entropy of the system shows a maximum. We discuss the relationship between the temperature and other properties of the model in terms of cultural traits.

A flexible Bayesian hierarchical model of preterm birth risk among US Hispanic subgroups in relation to maternal nativity and education

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Previous research has documented heterogeneity in the effects of maternal education on adverse birth outcomes by nativity and Hispanic subgroup in the United States. In this article, we considered the risk of preterm birth (PTB) using 9 years of vital statistics birth data from New York City. We employed finer categorizations of exposure than used previously and estimated the risk dose-response across the range of education by nativity and ethnicity. Methods Using Bayesian random effects logistic regression models with restricted quadratic spline terms for years of completed maternal education, we calculated and plotted the estimated posterior probabilities of PTB (gestational age < 37 weeks) for each year of education by ethnic and nativity subgroups adjusted for only maternal age, as well as with more extensive covariate adjustments. We then estimated the posterior risk difference between native and foreign born mothers by ethnicity over the continuous range of education exposures. Results The risk of PTB varied substantially by education, nativity and ethnicity. Native born groups showed higher absolute risk of PTB and declining risk associated with higher levels of education beyond about 10 years, as did foreign-born Puerto Ricans. For most other foreign born groups, however, risk of PTB was flatter across the education range. For Mexicans, Central Americans, Dominicans, South Americans and "Others", the protective effect of foreign birth diminished progressively across the educational range. Only for Puerto Ricans was there no nativity advantage for the foreign born, although small numbers of foreign born Cubans limited precision of estimates for that group. Conclusions Using flexible Bayesian regression models with random effects allowed us to estimate absolute risks without strong modeling assumptions. Risk comparisons for any sub-groups at any exposure level were simple to calculate. Shrinkage of posterior estimates through the use of random effects allowed for finer categorization of exposures without restricting joint effects to follow a fixed parametric scale. Although foreign born Hispanic women with the least education appeared to generally have low risk, this seems likely to be a marker for unmeasured environmental and behavioral factors, rather than a causally protective effect of low education itself. PMID:21504612

A flexible Bayesian hierarchical model of preterm birth risk among US Hispanic subgroups in relation to maternal nativity and education.

PubMed

Kaufman, Jay S; MacLehose, Richard F; Torrone, Elizabeth A; Savitz, David A

2011-04-19

Previous research has documented heterogeneity in the effects of maternal education on adverse birth outcomes by nativity and Hispanic subgroup in the United States. In this article, we considered the risk of preterm birth (PTB) using 9 years of vital statistics birth data from New York City. We employed finer categorizations of exposure than used previously and estimated the risk dose-response across the range of education by nativity and ethnicity. Using Bayesian random effects logistic regression models with restricted quadratic spline terms for years of completed maternal education, we calculated and plotted the estimated posterior probabilities of PTB (gestational age < 37 weeks) for each year of education by ethnic and nativity subgroups adjusted for only maternal age, as well as with more extensive covariate adjustments. We then estimated the posterior risk difference between native and foreign born mothers by ethnicity over the continuous range of education exposures. The risk of PTB varied substantially by education, nativity and ethnicity. Native born groups showed higher absolute risk of PTB and declining risk associated with higher levels of education beyond about 10 years, as did foreign-born Puerto Ricans. For most other foreign born groups, however, risk of PTB was flatter across the education range. For Mexicans, Central Americans, Dominicans, South Americans and "Others", the protective effect of foreign birth diminished progressively across the educational range. Only for Puerto Ricans was there no nativity advantage for the foreign born, although small numbers of foreign born Cubans limited precision of estimates for that group. Using flexible Bayesian regression models with random effects allowed us to estimate absolute risks without strong modeling assumptions. Risk comparisons for any sub-groups at any exposure level were simple to calculate. Shrinkage of posterior estimates through the use of random effects allowed for finer categorization of exposures without restricting joint effects to follow a fixed parametric scale. Although foreign born Hispanic women with the least education appeared to generally have low risk, this seems likely to be a marker for unmeasured environmental and behavioral factors, rather than a causally protective effect of low education itself.

ON THE RELIABILITY OF STELLAR AGES AND AGE SPREADS INFERRED FROM PRE-MAIN-SEQUENCE EVOLUTIONARY MODELS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hosokawa, Takashi; Offner, Stella S. R.; Krumholz, Mark R., E-mail: Takashi.Hosokawa@jpl.nasa.gov, E-mail: hosokwtk@gmail.com

2011-09-10

We revisit the problem of low-mass pre-main-sequence stellar evolution and its observational consequences for where stars fall on the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram (HRD). In contrast to most previous work, our models follow stars as they grow from small masses via accretion, and we perform a systematic study of how the stars' HRD evolution is influenced by their initial radius, by the radiative properties of the accretion flow, and by the accretion history, using both simple idealized accretion histories and histories taken from numerical simulations of star cluster formation. We compare our numerical results to both non-accreting isochrones and to the positionsmore » of observed stars in the HRD, with a goal of determining whether both the absolute ages and the age dispersions inferred from non-accreting isochrones are reliable. We show that non-accreting isochrones can sometimes overestimate stellar ages for more massive stars (those with effective temperatures above {approx}3500 K), thereby explaining why non-accreting isochrones often suggest a systematic age difference between more and less massive stars in the same cluster. However, we also find the only way to produce a similar overestimate for the ages of cooler stars is if these stars grow from {approx}0.01 M{sub sun} seed protostars that are an order of magnitude smaller than predicted by current theoretical models, and if the size of the seed protostar correlates systematically with the final stellar mass at the end of accretion. We therefore conclude that, unless both of these conditions are met, inferred ages and age spreads for cool stars are reliable, at least to the extent that the observed bolometric luminosities and temperatures are accurate. Finally, we note that the time dependence of the mass accretion rate has remarkably little effect on low-mass stars' evolution on the HRD, and that such time dependence may be neglected for all stars except those with effective temperatures above {approx}4000 K.« less

The Potassium-Argon Laser Experiment (KArLE): In Situ Geochronology for Planetary Robotic Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cohen, Barbara

2016-01-01

The Potassium (K) - Argon (Ar) Laser Experiment (KArLE) will make in situ noble-gas geochronology measurements aboard planetary robotic landers and roverss. Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS) is used to measure the K abun-dance in a sample and to release its noble gases; the evolved Ar is measured by mass spectrometry (MS); and rela-tive K content is related to absolute Ar abundance by sample mass, determined by optical measurement of the ablated volume. KArLE measures a whole-rock K-Ar age to 10% or better for rocks 2 Ga or older, sufficient to resolve the absolute age of many planetary samples. The LIBS-MS approach is attractive because the analytical components have been flight proven, do not require further technical development, and provide complementary measurements as well as in situ geochronology.

Individual Differences in Exercise Behavior: Stability and Change in Genetic and Environmental Determinants From Age 7 to 18.

PubMed

Huppertz, Charlotte; Bartels, Meike; de Zeeuw, Eveline L; van Beijsterveldt, Catharina E M; Hudziak, James J; Willemsen, Gonneke; Boomsma, Dorret I; de Geus, Eco J C

2016-09-01

Exercise behavior during leisure time is a major source of health-promoting physical activity and moderately tracks across childhood and adolescence. This study aims to investigate the absolute and relative contribution of genes and the environment to variance in exercise behavior from age 7 to 18, and to elucidate the stability and change of genetic and shared environmental factors that underlie this behavior. The Netherlands Twin Register collected data on exercise behavior in twins aged approximately 7, 10, 12, 14, 16 and 18 years (N = 27,332 twins; 48 % males; 47 % with longitudinal assessments). Three exercise categories (low, middle, high) were analyzed by means of liability threshold models. First, a univariate model was fitted using the largest available cross-sectional dataset with linear and quadratic effects of age as modifiers on the means and variance components. Second, a simplex model was fitted on the longitudinal dataset. Heritability was low in 7-year-olds (14 % in males and 12 % in females), but gradually increased up to age 18 (79 % in males and 49 % in females), whereas the initially substantial relative influence of the shared environment decreased with age (from 80 to 4 % in males and from 80 to 19 % in females). This decrease was due to a large increase in the genetic variance. The longitudinal model showed the genetic effects in males to be largely stable and to accumulate from childhood to late adolescence, whereas in females, they were marked by both transmission and innovation at all ages. The shared environmental effects tended to be less stable in both males and females. In sum, the clear age-moderation of exercise behavior implies that family-based interventions might be useful to increase this behavior in children, whereas individual-based interventions might be better suited for adolescents. We showed that some determinants of individual differences in exercise behavior are stable across childhood and youth, whereas others come into play at specific ages. In view of the many benefits of regular exercise, identifying these determinants at specific ages should be a public health priority.

Simulation of the June 11, 2010, flood along the Little Missouri River near Langley, Arkansas, using a hydrologic model coupled to a hydraulic model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Westerman, Drew A.; Clark, Brian R.

2013-01-01

The results from the precipitation-runoff hydrologic model, the one-dimensional unsteady-state hydraulic model, and a separate two-dimensional model developed as part of a coincident study, each complement the other in terms of streamflow timing, water-surface elevations, and velocities propagated by the June 11, 2010, flood event. The simulated grids for water depth and stream velocity from each model were directly compared by subtracting the one-dimensional hydraulic model grid from the two-dimensional model grid. The absolute mean difference for the simulated water depth was 0.9 foot. Additionally, the absolute mean difference for the simulated stream velocity was 1.9 feet per second.

Multi-tissue DNA methylation age predictor in mouse.

PubMed

Stubbs, Thomas M; Bonder, Marc Jan; Stark, Anne-Katrien; Krueger, Felix; von Meyenn, Ferdinand; Stegle, Oliver; Reik, Wolf

2017-04-11

DNA methylation changes at a discrete set of sites in the human genome are predictive of chronological and biological age. However, it is not known whether these changes are causative or a consequence of an underlying ageing process. It has also not been shown whether this epigenetic clock is unique to humans or conserved in the more experimentally tractable mouse. We have generated a comprehensive set of genome-scale base-resolution methylation maps from multiple mouse tissues spanning a wide range of ages. Many CpG sites show significant tissue-independent correlations with age which allowed us to develop a multi-tissue predictor of age in the mouse. Our model, which estimates age based on DNA methylation at 329 unique CpG sites, has a median absolute error of 3.33 weeks and has similar properties to the recently described human epigenetic clock. Using publicly available datasets, we find that the mouse clock is accurate enough to measure effects on biological age, including in the context of interventions. While females and males show no significant differences in predicted DNA methylation age, ovariectomy results in significant age acceleration in females. Furthermore, we identify significant differences in age-acceleration dependent on the lipid content of the diet. Here we identify and characterise an epigenetic predictor of age in mice, the mouse epigenetic clock. This clock will be instrumental for understanding the biology of ageing and will allow modulation of its ticking rate and resetting the clock in vivo to study the impact on biological age.

Neural and Muscular Contributions to the Age-Related Reductions in Rapid Strength.

PubMed

Gerstner, Gena R; Thompson, Brennan J; Rosenberg, Joseph G; Sobolewski, Eric J; Scharville, Michael J; Ryan, Eric D

2017-07-01

The purposes of this study were to investigate the age-related differences in absolute and normalized plantarflexion rate of torque development (RTD) at early (0-50 ms) and late (100-200 ms) time intervals and to examine specific neural and muscular mechanisms contributing to these differences. Thirty-two young (20.0 ± 2.1 yr) and 20 older (69.5 ± 3.3 yr) recreationally active men performed rapid plantarflexion isometric muscle actions to examine absolute and normalized RTD and muscle activation using EMG at early and late time intervals. Ultrasonography was used to examine medial gastrocnemius muscle size, echo intensity (EI), and muscle architecture (fascicle length [FL] and pennation angle [PA]). The older men were weaker (23.9%, P < 0.001) and had lower later absolute and normalized RTD (P = 0.001-0.034) variables when compared with the young men. The older men also had higher EI (P < 0.001), smaller PA (P = 0.004), and lower later EMG amplitude values (P = 0.009-0.046). However, there were no differences in early RTD and EMG amplitude values, muscle size, or FL between groups (P = 0.097-0.914). Lower late RTD values were related to higher EI, smaller PA, and lower EMG amplitude values (r = -0.28-0.59, P = 0.001-0.044); however, late RTD values were no longer related to PA after normalizing to peak torque. Age-related alterations in muscle quality (EI), architecture, and muscle activation may influence rapid torque production at late time intervals (≥100 ms) from contraction onset. These findings highlight specific neuromuscular factors that influence the age-related reductions in RTD, which has been shown to significantly influence function and performance in older adults.

Reporter Discrepancies Among Parents, Adolescents, and Peers: Adolescent Attachment and Informant Depressive Symptoms as Explanatory Factors

PubMed Central

Ehrlich, Katherine B.; Cassidy, Jude; Dykas, Matthew J.

2010-01-01

The issue of informant discrepancies about child and adolescent functioning is an important concern for clinicians, developmental psychologists, and others who must consider ways of handling discrepant reports of information, but reasons for discrepancies in reports have been poorly understood. Adolescent attachment and informant depressive symptoms were examined as two explanations for absolute and directional discrepancies about adolescent symptoms, relationships, and social behavior in a sample of 189 eleventh-grade students (mean age = 16.5 years). Adolescent attachment predicted absolute discrepancies, with greater attachment coherence associated with fewer discrepancies in reports of adolescent depressive symptoms, parent-adolescent conflict, and adolescent externalizing behavior. Parents’ but not adolescents’ depressive symptoms sometimes predicted absolute discrepancies. Mothers’ depressive symptoms and adolescent attachment predicted the direction of discrepancies for mother-peer reports only. PMID:21410916

Educational differences in all-cause mortality by marital status - Evidence from Bulgaria, Finland and the United States

PubMed Central

Kohler, Iliana V.; Martikainen, Pekka; Smith, Kirsten P.; Elo, Irma T.

2008-01-01

Using life table measures, we compare educational differentials in all-cause mortality at ages 40 to 70 in Bulgaria to those in Finland and the United States. Specifically, we assess whether the relationship between education and mortality is modified by marital status. Although high education and being married are associated with lower mortality in all three countries, absolute educational differences tend to be smaller among married than unmarried individuals. Absolute differentials by education are largest for Bulgarian men, but in relative terms educational differences are smaller among Bulgarian men than in Finland and the U.S. Among women, Americans experience the largest education-mortality gradients in both relative and absolute terms. Our results indicate a particular need to tackle health hazards among poorly educated men in countries in transition. PMID:19165349

Acellular pertussis vaccines effectiveness over time: A systematic review, meta-analysis and modeling study

PubMed Central

Chit, Ayman; Zivaripiran, Hossein; Shin, Thomas; Lee, Jason K. H.; Tomovici, Antigona; Macina, Denis; Johnson, David R.; Decker, Michael D.; Wu, Jianhong

2018-01-01

Background Acellular pertussis vaccine studies postulate that waning protection, particularly after the adolescent booster, is a major contributor to the increasing US pertussis incidence. However, these studies reported relative (ie, vs a population given prior doses of pertussis vaccine), not absolute (ie, vs a pertussis vaccine naïve population) efficacy following the adolescent booster. We aim to estimate the absolute protection offered by acellular pertussis vaccines. Methods We conducted a systematic review of acellular pertussis vaccine effectiveness (VE) publications. Studies had to comply with the US schedule, evaluate clinical outcomes, and report VE over discrete time points. VE after the 5-dose childhood series and after the adolescent sixth-dose booster were extracted separately and pooled. All relative VE estimates were transformed to absolute estimates. VE waning was estimated using meta-regression modeling. Findings Three studies reported VE after the childhood series and four after the adolescent booster. All booster studies reported relative VE (vs acellular pertussis vaccine-primed population). We estimate initial childhood series absolute VE is 91% (95% CI: 87% to 95%) and declines at 9.6% annually. Initial relative VE after adolescent boosting is 70% (95% CI: 54% to 86%) and declines at 45.3% annually. Initial absolute VE after adolescent boosting is 85% (95% CI: 84% to 86%) and declines at 11.7% (95% CI: 11.1% to 12.3%) annually. Interpretation Acellular pertussis vaccine efficacy is initially high and wanes over time. Observational VE studies of boosting failed to recognize that they were measuring relative, not absolute, VE and the absolute VE in the boosted population is better than appreciated. PMID:29912887

A New Scoring System to Predict the Risk for High-risk Adenoma and Comparison of Existing Risk Calculators.

PubMed

Murchie, Brent; Tandon, Kanwarpreet; Hakim, Seifeldin; Shah, Kinchit; O'Rourke, Colin; Castro, Fernando J

2017-04-01

Colorectal cancer (CRC) screening guidelines likely over-generalizes CRC risk, 35% of Americans are not up to date with screening, and there is growing incidence of CRC in younger patients. We developed a practical prediction model for high-risk colon adenomas in an average-risk population, including an expanded definition of high-risk polyps (≥3 nonadvanced adenomas), exposing higher than average-risk patients. We also compared results with previously created calculators. Patients aged 40 to 59 years, undergoing first-time average-risk screening or diagnostic colonoscopies were evaluated. Risk calculators for advanced adenomas and high-risk adenomas were created based on age, body mass index, sex, race, and smoking history. Previously established calculators with similar risk factors were selected for comparison of concordance statistic (c-statistic) and external validation. A total of 5063 patients were included. Advanced adenomas, and high-risk adenomas were seen in 5.7% and 7.4% of the patient population, respectively. The c-statistic for our calculator was 0.639 for the prediction of advanced adenomas, and 0.650 for high-risk adenomas. When applied to our population, all previous models had lower c-statistic results although one performed similarly. Our model compares favorably to previously established prediction models. Age and body mass index were used as continuous variables, likely improving the c-statistic. It also reports absolute predictive probabilities of advanced and high-risk polyps, allowing for more individualized risk assessment of CRC.

New approach to probability estimate of femoral neck fracture by fall (Slovak regression model).

PubMed

Wendlova, J

2009-01-01

3,216 Slovak women with primary or secondary osteoporosis or osteopenia, aged 20-89 years, were examined with the bone densitometer DXA (dual energy X-ray absorptiometry, GE, Prodigy - Primo), x = 58.9, 95% C.I. (58.42; 59.38). The values of the following variables for each patient were measured: FSI (femur strength index), T-score total hip left, alpha angle - left, theta angle - left, HAL (hip axis length) left, BMI (body mass index) was calculated from the height and weight of the patients. Regression model determined the following order of independent variables according to the intensity of their influence upon the occurrence of values of dependent FSI variable: 1. BMI, 2. theta angle, 3. T-score total hip, 4. alpha angle, 5. HAL. The regression model equation, calculated from the variables monitored in the study, enables a doctor in praxis to determine the probability magnitude (absolute risk) for the occurrence of pathological value of FSI (FSI < 1) in the femoral neck area, i. e., allows for probability estimate of a femoral neck fracture by fall for Slovak women. 1. The Slovak regression model differs from regression models, published until now, in chosen independent variables and a dependent variable, belonging to biomechanical variables, characterising the bone quality. 2. The Slovak regression model excludes the inaccuracies of other models, which are not able to define precisely the current and past clinical condition of tested patients (e.g., to define the length and dose of exposure to risk factors). 3. The Slovak regression model opens the way to a new method of estimating the probability (absolute risk) or the odds for a femoral neck fracture by fall, based upon the bone quality determination. 4. It is assumed that the development will proceed by improving the methods enabling to measure the bone quality, determining the probability of fracture by fall (Tab. 6, Fig. 3, Ref. 22). Full Text (Free, PDF) www.bmj.sk.

Automated body weight prediction of dairy cows using 3-dimensional vision.

PubMed

Song, X; Bokkers, E A M; van der Tol, P P J; Groot Koerkamp, P W G; van Mourik, S

2018-05-01

The objectives of this study were to quantify the error of body weight prediction using automatically measured morphological traits in a 3-dimensional (3-D) vision system and to assess the influence of various sources of uncertainty on body weight prediction. In this case study, an image acquisition setup was created in a cow selection box equipped with a top-view 3-D camera. Morphological traits of hip height, hip width, and rump length were automatically extracted from the raw 3-D images taken of the rump area of dairy cows (n = 30). These traits combined with days in milk, age, and parity were used in multiple linear regression models to predict body weight. To find the best prediction model, an exhaustive feature selection algorithm was used to build intermediate models (n = 63). Each model was validated by leave-one-out cross-validation, giving the root mean square error and mean absolute percentage error. The model consisting of hip width (measurement variability of 0.006 m), days in milk, and parity was the best model, with the lowest errors of 41.2 kg of root mean square error and 5.2% mean absolute percentage error. Our integrated system, including the image acquisition setup, image analysis, and the best prediction model, predicted the body weights with a performance similar to that achieved using semi-automated or manual methods. Moreover, the variability of our simplified morphological trait measurement showed a negligible contribution to the uncertainty of body weight prediction. We suggest that dairy cow body weight prediction can be improved by incorporating more predictive morphological traits and by improving the prediction model structure. The Authors. Published by FASS Inc. and Elsevier Inc. on behalf of the American Dairy Science Association®. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/).

Normal references of right ventricular strain values by two-dimensional strain echocardiography according to the age and gender.

PubMed

Park, Jae-Hyeong; Choi, Jin-Oh; Park, Seung Woo; Cho, Goo-Yeong; Oh, Jin Kyung; Lee, Jae-Hwan; Seong, In-Whan

2018-02-01

Right ventricular (RV) strain values by 2-dimensional strain echocardiography (STE) can be used as objective markers of RV systolic function. However, there is little data about normal reference RV strain values according to age and gender. We measured normal RV strain values by STE. RV strain values were analyzed from the digitally stored echocardiographic images from NORMAL (Normal echOcardiogRaphic diMensions and functions in KoreAn popuLation) study for the measurement of normal echocardiographic values performed in 23 Korean university hospitals. We enrolled total 1003 healthy persons in the NORMAL study. Of them, we analyzed 2-dimensional RV strain values in 493 subjects (261 females, mean 47 ± 15 years old) only with echocardiographic images by GE machines. Their LV systolic and diastolic functions were normal. RV fractional area change was 48 ± 6% and tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion was 23 ± 3 mm. Total RV global longitudinal peak systolic strain (RVGLS total ) was -21.5 ± 3.2%. Females had higher absolute RVGLS total (-22.3 ± 3.3 vs -20.7 ± 2.9%, p < 0.001) than males. Younger (<50 years old) females had higher absolute RVGLS total (-22.9 ± 3.2 vs -20.5 ± 2.8%, p < 0.001) than age matched males. RVGLS total in females gradually increased according to age (p for trend = 0.002) and becomes almost similar in age ≥50 years. However, this trend was not seen in males (p for trend = 0.287), and younger males had similar RVGLS total value to that of older males (age ≥50 years, -20.5 ± 2.8 vs -20.9 ± 3.1%, p = 0.224). We calculated normal RVGLS values in normal population. Females have higher absolute strain values than males, especially in younger age groups (<50 years old).

High Resolution Topography of Age-Related Changes in Non-Rapid Eye Movement Sleep Electroencephalography

PubMed Central

Sprecher, Kate E.; Riedner, Brady A.; Smith, Richard F.; Tononi, Giulio; Davidson, Richard J.; Benca, Ruth M.

2016-01-01

Sleeping brain activity reflects brain anatomy and physiology. The aim of this study was to use high density (256 channel) electroencephalography (EEG) during sleep to characterize topographic changes in sleep EEG power across normal aging, with high spatial resolution. Sleep was evaluated in 92 healthy adults aged 18–65 years old using full polysomnography and high density EEG. After artifact removal, spectral power density was calculated for standard frequency bands for all channels, averaged across the NREM periods of the first 3 sleep cycles. To quantify topographic changes with age, maps were generated of the Pearson’s coefficient of the correlation between power and age at each electrode. Significant correlations were determined by statistical non-parametric mapping. Absolute slow wave power declined significantly with increasing age across the entire scalp, whereas declines in theta and sigma power were significant only in frontal regions. Power in fast spindle frequencies declined significantly with increasing age frontally, whereas absolute power of slow spindle frequencies showed no significant change with age. When EEG power was normalized across the scalp, a left centro-parietal region showed significantly less age-related decline in power than the rest of the scalp. This partial preservation was particularly significant in the slow wave and sigma bands. The effect of age on sleep EEG varies substantially by region and frequency band. This non-uniformity should inform the design of future investigations of aging and sleep. This study provides normative data on the effect of age on sleep EEG topography, and provides a basis from which to explore the mechanisms of normal aging as well as neurodegenerative disorders for which age is a risk factor. PMID:26901503

Income inequality and periodontal diseases in rich countries: an ecological cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Sabbah, Wael; Sheiham, Aubrey; Bernabé, Eduardo

2010-10-01

There are adverse effects of income inequality on morbidity and mortality. This relationship has not been adequately examined in relation to oral health. To examine the relationship between income inequality and periodontal disease in rich countries. Adults aged 35-44 years in 17 rich countries with populations of more than 2 million. National level data on periodontal disease, income inequality and absolute national income were collected from 17 rich countries with populations of more than 2m. Pearson and partial correlations were used to examine the relationship between income inequality and percentage of 35-44-year-old adults with periodontal pockets > or = 4 mm and > or = 6 mm deep, adjusting for absolute national income. Higher levels of income inequality were significantly associated with higher levels of periodontal disease, independently of absolute national income. Absolute income was not associated with levels of periodontal disease in these 17 rich countries. Income inequality appears to be an important contextual determinant of periodontal disease. The results emphasise the importance of relative income rather than absoluteincome in relation to periodontal disease in rich countries.

The Application of Absolute Ethanol in the Treatment of Mucocele of the Glands of Blandin-Nuhn.

PubMed

Zhang, Jun; Wang, Chao

2016-10-01

Mucocele of the anterior lingual salivary glands is a more common cystic lesion, especially in patients aged less than 20 years. The study is aimed to observe the effect of treatment by injection of absolute ethanol instead of surgery. Fourteen outpatients diagnosed as mucocele of the glands of Blandin-Nuhn were selected. These patients, after blood investigation, were treated by injection of absolute ethanol into a mucous cavity of lesion under superficial anesthesia with 2% lidocaine once a week and followed up from 3 months to 2 years. Mucocele of the glands of Blandin-Nuhn was extirpated in all patients after 1 to 3 injections. There were no other complications except slight distending pain occurred on the same day when the patients were treated. The recurrence was not observed during the follow-up period. In conclusion, the study suggests that injection of absolute ethanol may be an alternative means for treating mucocele of the glands of Blandin-Nuhn, because it is mininvasive, safe, effective, economic, and simply manipulated compared with surgical treatment.

The AFGL (Air Force Geophysics Laboratory) Absolute Gravity System’s Error Budget Revisted.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-05-08

also be induced by equipment not associated with the system. A systematic bias of 68 pgal was observed by the Istituto di Metrologia "G. Colonnetti...Laboratory Astrophysics, Univ. of Colo., Boulder, Colo. IMGC: Istituto di Metrologia "G. Colonnetti", Torino, Italy Table 1. Absolute Gravity Values...measurements were made with three Model D and three Model G La Coste-Romberg gravity meters. These instruments were operated by the following agencies

Laminated Composite Shell Element Using Absolute Nodal Coordinate Formulation and Its Application to ANCF Tire Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-04-24

Paramsothy Jayakumar US Army TARDEC 6501 E. 11 Mile Road Warren, MI 48397-5000 Hiroyuki Sugiyama Department of Mechanical and Industrial...Part 2: Development of a Physical Tyre Model", Vehicle System Dynamics, vol. 50, pp. 339-356. [4] Sugiyama, H., Yamashita, H. and Jayakumar , P., 2014... Jayakumar , P. and Sugiyama, H., "Continuum Mechanics Based Bi-Linear Shear Deformable Shell Element using Absolute Nodal Coordinate Formulation", ASME

Immunological parameters in elderly women: correlations with aerobic power, muscle strength and mood state.

PubMed

Raso, Vagner; Natale, Valéria Maria; Duarte, Alberto José da Silva; Greve, Júlia Maria D'Andrea; Shephard, Roy J

2012-05-01

Our objective was to relate immunological data for healthy but sedentary elderly women to aerobic power, strength, and mood state. We measured peak aerobic power and one-repetition maximum strength along with mood (depression and fatigue), quality of life and carbohydrate intake on 42 women aged 60-77 years. Standard immunological techniques determined natural killer cell count and cytotoxic activity (NKCA), proliferative responses to phytohemaglutinin and OKT(3), various lymphocyte subpopulations (CD3(+), CD3(-)CD19(+), CD56(+), CD4(+), CD8(+), CD56(dim) and CD56(bright)), and markers of activation, maturation, down-regulation and susceptibility to apoptosis (CD25(+), CD28(+), CD45RA(+), CD45RO(+), CD69(+), CD95(+), HLA-DR(+)). Correlations of immune parameters with aerobic power and strength were very similar for absolute and relative immunological data. In the group as a whole, the only correlation with aerobic power was -0.35 (relative CD4(+)CD69(+) count), but in subjects with values <22.6 mL kg(-1)min(-1) correlations ranged from -0.57 (relative CD4(+)CD45RO(+)) to 0.92 (absolute CD56(dim)HLA-DR(+)). In terms of muscle strength, univariate correlation coefficients ranged from -0.34 (relative and absolute CD3(+)CD4(+)CD8(+)) to +0.48 (absolute CD3(+)HLA-DR(+)) and +0.50 (absolute CD8(+)CD45RA(+)CD45RO(+)). Neither NKCA nor lymphocyte proliferation were correlated with aerobic power or muscle strength. Although mood state and quality of life can sometimes be influenced by an individual's fitness level, our multivariate analyses suggested that depression, fatigue and quality of life were more important determinants of immune profile than our fitness measures. Psychological changes associated with aging may have a substantial adverse effect upon the immune system, and immunological function may be enhanced more by addressing these issues than by focusing upon aerobic or resistance training. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

AMS radiocarbon dating and varve chronology of Lake Soppensee: 6000 to 12000 14C years BP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hajdas, Irena; Ivy, Susan D.; Beer, Jürg; Bonani, Georges; Imboden, Dieter; Lotted, André F.; Sturm, Michael; Suter, Martin

1993-12-01

For the extension of the radiocarbon calibration curve beyond 10000 14C y BP, laminated sediment from Lake Soppensee (central Switzerland) was dated. The radiocarbon time scale was obtained using accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) dating of terrestrial macrofossils selected from the Soppensee sediment. Because of an unlaminated sediment section during the Younger Dryas (10000 11000 14C y BP), the absolute time scale, based on counting annual layers (varves), had to be corrected for missing varves. The Soppensee radiocarbon-verve chronology covers the time period from 6000 to 12000 14C y BP on the radiocarbon time scale and 7000 to 13000 calendar y BP on the absolute time scale. The good agreement with the tree ring curve in the interval from 7000 to 11450 cal y BP (cal y indicates calendar year) proves the annual character of the laminations. The ash layer of the Vasset/Killian Tephra (Massif Central, France) is dated at 8230±140 14C y BP and 9407±44 cal y BP. The boundaries of the Younger Dryas biozone are placed at 10986±69 cal y BP (Younger Dryas/Preboreal) and 1212±86 cal y BP (Alleröd/Younger Dryas) on the absolute time scale. The absolute age of the Laacher See Tephra layer, dated with the radiocarbon method at 10 800 to 11200 14C y BP, is estimated at 12350 ± 135 cal y BP. The oldest radiocarbon age of 14190±120 14C y BP was obtained on macrofossils of pioneer vegetation which were found in the lowermost part of the sediment profile. For the late Glacial, the offset between the radiocarbon (10000 12000 14C y BP) and the absolute time scale (11400 13000 cal y BP) in the Soppensee chronology is not greater than 1000 years, which differs from the trend of the U/Th-radiocarbon curve derived from corals.

Influence of physical and chemical properties of HTSXT-FTIR samples on the quality of prediction models developed to determine absolute concentrations of total proteins, carbohydrates and triglycerides: a preliminary study on the determination of their absolute concentrations in fresh microalgal biomass.

PubMed

Serrano León, Esteban; Coat, Rémy; Moutel, Benjamin; Pruvost, Jérémy; Legrand, Jack; Gonçalves, Olivier

2014-11-01

Absolute concentrations of total macromolecules (triglycerides, proteins and carbohydrates) in microorganisms can be rapidly measured by FTIR spectroscopy, but caution is needed to avoid non-specific experimental bias. Here, we assess the limits within which this approach can be used on model solutions of macromolecules of interest. We used the Bruker HTSXT-FTIR system. Our results show that the solid deposits obtained after the sampling procedure present physical and chemical properties that influence the quality of the absolute concentration prediction models (univariate and multivariate). The accuracy of the models was degraded by a factor of 2 or 3 outside the recommended concentration interval of 0.5-35 µg spot(-1). Change occurred notably in the sample hydrogen bond network, which could, however, be controlled using an internal probe (pseudohalide anion). We also demonstrate that for aqueous solutions, accurate prediction of total carbohydrate quantities (in glucose equivalent) could not be made unless a constant amount of protein was added to the model solution (BSA). The results of the prediction model for more complex solutions, here with two components: glucose and BSA, were very encouraging, suggesting that this FTIR approach could be used as a rapid quantification method for mixtures of molecules of interest, provided the limits of use of the HTSXT-FTIR method are precisely known and respected. This last finding opens the way to direct quantification of total molecules of interest in more complex matrices.

Aging and cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection differentially and jointly affect distinct circulating T cell subsets in humans1

PubMed Central

Wertheimer, Anne M.; Bennett, Michael S.; Park, Byung; Uhrlaub, Jennifer L.; Martinez, Carmine; Pulko, Vesna; Currier, Noreen L.; Nikolich-Zugich, Dragana; Kaye, Jeffrey; Nikolich-Zugich, Janko

2014-01-01

The impact of intrinsic aging upon human peripheral blood T-cell subsets remains incompletely quantified and understood. This impact must be distinguished from the influence of latent persistent microorganisms, particularly cytomegalovirus (CMV), which has been associated with age-related changes in the T cell pool. In a cross-sectional cohort of 152 CMV-negative individuals, aged 21–101 years, we found that aging correlated strictly to an absolute loss of naïve CD8, but not CD4, T cells, but, contrary to many reports, did not lead to an increase in memory T cell numbers. The loss of naïve CD8 T cells was not altered by CMV in 239 subjects (range 21–96 years) but the decline in CD4+ naïve cells showed significance in CMV+ individuals. These individuals also exhibited an absolute increase in the effector/effector memory CD4+ and CD8+ cells with age. That increase was seen mainly, if not exclusively, in older subjects with elevated anti-CMV Ab titers, suggesting that efficacy of viral control over time may determine the magnitude of CMV impact upon T cell memory, and perhaps upon immune defense. These findings provide important new insights into the age-related changes in the peripheral blood pool of older adults, demonstrating that aging and CMV exert both distinct and joint influence upon blood T cell homeostasis in humans. PMID:24501199

Modeling and forecasting of KLCI weekly return using WT-ANN integrated model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liew, Wei-Thong; Liong, Choong-Yeun; Hussain, Saiful Izzuan; Isa, Zaidi

2013-04-01

The forecasting of weekly return is one of the most challenging tasks in investment since the time series are volatile and non-stationary. In this study, an integrated model of wavelet transform and artificial neural network, WT-ANN is studied for modeling and forecasting of KLCI weekly return. First, the WT is applied to decompose the weekly return time series in order to eliminate noise. Then, a mathematical model of the time series is constructed using the ANN. The performance of the suggested model will be evaluated by root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The result shows that the WT-ANN model can be considered as a feasible and powerful model for time series modeling and prediction.

Stability of Maternal Autonomy Support between Infancy and Preschool Age

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Matte-Gagne, Celia; Bernier, Annie; Gagne, Christine

2013-01-01

The goals of this article were to examine (1) the relative and absolute stability of maternal autonomy support between infancy and preschool age, and (2) the moderating role of child gender, maternal attachment state of mind, and stressful life events. Sixty-nine mother-child dyads participated in five visits when the child was 8, 15, and 18…

Absolute wind velocities in the lower thermosphere of Venus using infrared heterodyne spectroscopy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldstein, Jeffrey J.; Mumma, Michael J.; Kostiuk, Theodor; Deming, Drake; Espenak, Fred; Zipoy, David

1991-01-01

NASA's IR Telescope Facility and the McMath Solar Telescope have yielded absolute wind velocities in the Venus thermosphere for December 1985 to March 1987 with sufficient spatial resolution for circulation model discrimination. A qualitative analysis of beam-integrated winds indicates subsolar-to-antisolar circulation in the lower thermosphere; horizontal wind velocity was derived from a two-parameter model wind field of subsolar-antisolar and zonal components. A unique model fit common to all observing periods possessed 120 m/sec subsolar-antisolar and 25 m/sec zonal retrograde components, consistent with the Bougher et al. (1986, 1988) hydrodynamical models for 110 km.

Use of a Tracing Task to Assess Visuomotor Performance: Effects of Age, Sex, and Handedness

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background. Visuomotor abnormalities are common in aging and age-related disease, yet difficult to quantify. This study investigated the effects of healthy aging, sex, and handedness on the performance of a tracing task. Participants (n = 150, aged 21–95 years, 75 females) used a stylus to follow a moving target around a circle on a tablet computer with their dominant and nondominant hands. Participants also performed the Trail Making Test (a measure of executive function). Methods. Deviations from the circular path were computed to derive an “error” time series. For each time series, absolute mean, variance, and complexity index (a proposed measure of system functionality and adaptability) were calculated. Using the moving target and stylus coordinates, the percentage of task time within the target region and the cumulative micropause duration (a measure of motion continuity) were computed. Results. All measures showed significant effects of aging (p < .0005). Post hoc age group comparisons showed that with increasing age, the absolute mean and variance of the error increased, complexity index decreased, percentage of time within the target region decreased, and cumulative micropause duration increased. Only complexity index showed a significant difference between dominant versus nondominant hands within each age group (p < .0005). All measures showed relationships to the Trail Making Test (p < .05). Conclusions. Measures derived from a tracing task identified performance differences in healthy individuals as a function of age, sex, and handedness. Studies in populations with specific neuromotor syndromes are warranted to test the utility of measures based on the dynamics of tracking a target as a clinical assessment tool. PMID:23388876

Urban Modelling Performance of Next Generation SAR Missions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sefercik, U. G.; Yastikli, N.; Atalay, C.

2017-09-01

In synthetic aperture radar (SAR) technology, urban mapping and modelling have become possible with revolutionary missions TerraSAR-X (TSX) and Cosmo-SkyMed (CSK) since 2007. These satellites offer 1m spatial resolution in high-resolution spotlight imaging mode and capable for high quality digital surface model (DSM) acquisition for urban areas utilizing interferometric SAR (InSAR) technology. With the advantage of independent generation from seasonal weather conditions, TSX and CSK DSMs are much in demand by scientific users. The performance of SAR DSMs is influenced by the distortions such as layover, foreshortening, shadow and double-bounce depend up on imaging geometry. In this study, the potential of DSMs derived from convenient 1m high-resolution spotlight (HS) InSAR pairs of CSK and TSX is validated by model-to-model absolute and relative accuracy estimations in an urban area. For the verification, an airborne laser scanning (ALS) DSM of the study area was used as the reference model. Results demonstrated that TSX and CSK urban DSMs are compatible in open, built-up and forest land forms with the absolute accuracy of 8-10 m. The relative accuracies based on the coherence of neighbouring pixels are superior to absolute accuracies both for CSK and TSX.

Spectral Irradiance Calibration in the Infrared. 7. 5-14 microns Spectroscopy of the Asteroids Ceres, Vesta, and Pallas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cohen, Martin; Witteborn, Fred C.; Roush, Ted; Bregman, Jesse; Wooden, Diane

1996-01-01

We describe our efforts to seek "closure" in our infrared absolute calibration scheme by comparing spectra of asteroids, absolutely calibrated through reference stars, with "Standard Thermal Models" and "Thermophysical Models" for these bodies. Our use of continuous 5-14 microns airborne spectra provides complete sampling of the rise to, and peak, of the infrared spectral energy distribution and constrains these models. Such models currently support the absolute calibration of ISO-PHOT at far-infrared wave- lengths (as far as 300 microns), and contribute to that of the Mid-Infrared Spectrometer on the "Infrared Telescope in Space" in the 6-12 microns region. The best match to our observed spectra of Ceres and Vesta is a, standard thermal model using a beaming factor of unity. We also report the presence of three emissivity features in Ceres which may complicate the traditional model extrapolation to the far-infrared from contemporaneous ground-based N-band photometry that is used to support calibration of, for example, ISO-PHOT. While identification of specific materials that cause these features is not made, we discuss families of minerals that may be responsible.

A model for the massive binary V340 Muscae

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hauck, Norbert

2016-02-01

A synthetic light curve has been fitted to photometric data from the ASAS-3 database. The parameters of the best solution are well consistent with those derived from stellar models for both components for an initial metallicity Z=0.020 and a common age of 5 Myr. Therefore, we can reliably estimate the absolute dimensions of this close eclipsing binary system. Apparently, the O-type primary star has a mass of about 22.65 Msun and a radius of 10.35 Rsun. For the secondary star, likely a late B-type dwarf, we obtain about 3.1 Msun and 2.1 Rsun. Their mass ratio of about 0.138 might be the lowest found so far in O-type binaries. [English and German online-version of this paper available under www.bav-astro.eu/rb/rb2016-2/1.html].

Last three millennia Earth's Magnetic field strength in Mesoamerica and southern United States: Implications in geomagnetism and archaeology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goguitchaichvili, Avto; Ruiz, Rafael García; Pavón-Carrasco, F. Javier; Contreras, Juan Julio Morales; Arechalde, Ana María Soler; Urrutia-Fucugauchi, Jaime

2018-06-01

Earth's Magnetic Field variation strength may provide crucial information to understand the geodynamo mechanism and elucidate the conditions on the physics of the Earth's deep interiors. Aimed to reveal the fine characteristics of the geomagnetic field during the last three millennia in Mesoamerica, we analyzed the available absolute geomagnetic intensities associated to absolute radiometric dating as well some ages provided by historical documents. This analysis is achieved using thermoremanent magnetization carried by volcanic lava flows and burned archaeological artefacts. A total of 106 selected intensities from Mesoamerica and other 100 from the southern part of the United States represent the main core of the dataset to construct the variation curve using both combined bootstrap method and temporal penalized B-spline methods. The obtained intensity paleosecular variation curve for Mesoamerica generally disagrees with the values predicted by the global geomagnetic field models. There is rather firm evidence of eastward drift when compared to similar reference curves in Western Europe, Asia and Pacific Ocean. The recent hypothesis about the relationship between the geomagnetic field strength and paleoclimate is also critically analyzed in the light of this new data compilation.

The Case for Absolute Ligand Discrimination: Modeling Information Processing and Decision by Immune T Cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

François, Paul; Altan-Bonnet, Grégoire

2016-03-01

Some cells have to take decision based on the quality of surroundings ligands, almost irrespective of their quantity, a problem we name "absolute discrimination". An example of absolute discrimination is recognition of not-self by immune T Cells. We show how the problem of absolute discrimination can be solved by a process called "adaptive sorting". We review several implementations of adaptive sorting, as well as its generic properties such as antagonism. We show how kinetic proofreading with negative feedback implement an approximate version of adaptive sorting in the immune context. Finally, we revisit the decision problem at the cell population level, showing how phenotypic variability and feedbacks between population and single cells are crucial for proper decision.

GeneCount: genome-wide calculation of absolute tumor DNA copy numbers from array comparative genomic hybridization data

PubMed Central

Lyng, Heidi; Lando, Malin; Brøvig, Runar S; Svendsrud, Debbie H; Johansen, Morten; Galteland, Eivind; Brustugun, Odd T; Meza-Zepeda, Leonardo A; Myklebost, Ola; Kristensen, Gunnar B; Hovig, Eivind; Stokke, Trond

2008-01-01

Absolute tumor DNA copy numbers can currently be achieved only on a single gene basis by using fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH). We present GeneCount, a method for genome-wide calculation of absolute copy numbers from clinical array comparative genomic hybridization data. The tumor cell fraction is reliably estimated in the model. Data consistent with FISH results are achieved. We demonstrate significant improvements over existing methods for exploring gene dosages and intratumor copy number heterogeneity in cancers. PMID:18500990

The future impact of population growth and aging on coronary heart disease in China: projections from the Coronary Heart Disease Policy Model-China

PubMed Central

Moran, Andrew; Zhao, Dong; Gu, Dongfeng; Coxson, Pamela; Chen, Chung-Shiuan; Cheng, Jun; Liu, Jing; He, Jiang; Goldman, Lee

2008-01-01

Background China will experience an overall growth and aging of its adult population in coming decades. We used a computer model to forecast the future impact of these demographic changes on coronary heart disease (CHD) in China. Methods The CHD Policy Model is a validated state-transition, computer simulation of CHD on a national scale. China-specific CHD risk factor, incidence, case-fatality, and prevalence data were incorporated, and a CHD prediction model was generated from a Chinese cohort study and calibrated to age-specific Chinese mortality rates. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to CHD were calculated using standard methods. The projected population of China aged 35–84 years was entered, and CHD events, deaths, and DALYs were simulated over 2000–2029. CHD risk factors other than age and case-fatality were held at year 2000 levels. Sensitivity analyses tested uncertainty regarding CHD mortality coding, the proportion of total deaths attributable to CHD, and case-fatality. Results We predicted 7.8 million excess CHD events (a 69% increase) and 3.4 million excess CHD deaths (a 64% increase) in the decade 2020–2029 compared with 2000–2009. For 2030, we predicted 71% of almost one million annual CHD deaths will occur in persons ≥65 years old, while 67% of the growing annual burden of CHD death and disability will weigh on adults <65 years old. Substituting alternate CHD mortality assumptions led to 17–20% more predicted CHD deaths over 2000–2029, though the pattern of increases in CHD events and deaths over time remained. Conclusion We forecast that absolute numbers of CHD events and deaths will increase dramatically in China over 2010–2029, due to a growing and aging population alone. Recent data suggest CHD risk factor levels are increasing, so our projections may underestimate the extent of the potential CHD epidemic in China. PMID:19036167

Classifying and Standardizing Panfacial Trauma With a New Bony Facial Trauma Score.

PubMed

Casale, Garrett G A; Fishero, Brian A; Park, Stephen S; Sochor, Mark; Heltzel, Sara B; Christophel, J Jared

2017-01-01

The practice of facial trauma surgery would benefit from a useful quantitative scale that measures the extent of injury. To develop a facial trauma scale that incorporates only reducible fractures and is able to be reliably communicated to health care professionals. A cadaveric tissue study was conducted from October 1 to 3, 2014. Ten cadaveric heads were subjected to various degrees of facial trauma by dropping a fixed mass onto each head. The heads were then imaged with fine-cut computed tomography. A Bony Facial Trauma Scale (BFTS) for grading facial trauma was developed based only on clinically relevant (reducible) fractures. The traumatized cadaveric heads were then scored using this scale as well as 3 existing scoring systems. Regression analysis was used to determine correlation between degree of incursion of the fixed mass on the cadaveric heads and trauma severity as rated by the scoring systems. Statistical analysis was performed to determine correlation of the scores obtained using the BFTS with those of the 3 existing scoring systems. Scores obtained using the BFTS were not correlated with dentition (95% CI, -0.087 to 1.053; P = .08; measured as absolute number of teeth) or age of the cadaveric donor (95% CI, -0.068 to 0.944; P = .08). Facial trauma scores. Among all 10 cadaveric specimens (9 male donors and 1 female donor; age range, 41-87 years; mean age, 57.2 years), the facial trauma scores obtained using the BFTS correlated with depth of penetration of the mass into the face (odds ratio, 4.071; 95% CI, 1.676-6.448) P = .007) when controlling for presence of dentition and age. The BFTS scores also correlated with scores obtained using 3 existing facial trauma models (Facial Fracture Severity Scale, rs = 0.920; Craniofacial Disruption Score, rs = 0.945; and ZS Score, rs = 0.902; P < .001 for all 3 models). In addition, the BFTS was found to have excellent interrater reliability (0.908; P = .001), which was similar to the interrater reliability of the other 3 tested trauma scales. Scores obtained using the BFTS were not correlated with dentition (odds ratio, .482; 95% CI, -0.087 to 1.053; P = .08; measured as absolute number of teeth) or age of the cadaveric donor (odds ratio, .436; 95% CI, -0.068 to 0.944; P = .08). Facial trauma severity as measured by the BFTS correlated with depth of penetration of the fixed mass into the face. In this study, the BFTS was clinically relevant, had high fidelity in communicating the fractures sustained in facial trauma, and correlated well with previously validated models. NA.

The Local Food Environment and Fruit and Vegetable Intake: A Geographically Weighted Regression Approach in the ORiEL Study.

PubMed

Clary, Christelle; Lewis, Daniel J; Flint, Ellen; Smith, Neil R; Kestens, Yan; Cummins, Steven

2016-12-01

Studies that explore associations between the local food environment and diet routinely use global regression models, which assume that relationships are invariant across space, yet such stationarity assumptions have been little tested. We used global and geographically weighted regression models to explore associations between the residential food environment and fruit and vegetable intake. Analyses were performed in 4 boroughs of London, United Kingdom, using data collected between April 2012 and July 2012 from 969 adults in the Olympic Regeneration in East London Study. Exposures were assessed both as absolute densities of healthy and unhealthy outlets, taken separately, and as a relative measure (proportion of total outlets classified as healthy). Overall, local models performed better than global models (lower Akaike information criterion). Locally estimated coefficients varied across space, regardless of the type of exposure measure, although changes of sign were observed only when absolute measures were used. Despite findings from global models showing significant associations between the relative measure and fruit and vegetable intake (β = 0.022; P < 0.01) only, geographically weighted regression models using absolute measures outperformed models using relative measures. This study suggests that greater attention should be given to nonstationary relationships between the food environment and diet. It further challenges the idea that a single measure of exposure, whether relative or absolute, can reflect the many ways the food environment may shape health behaviors. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Background risk of breast cancer and the association between physical activity and mammographic density.

PubMed

Trinh, Thang; Eriksson, Mikael; Darabi, Hatef; Bonn, Stephanie E; Brand, Judith S; Cuzick, Jack; Czene, Kamila; Sjölander, Arvid; Bälter, Katarina; Hall, Per

2015-04-02

High physical activity has been shown to decrease the risk of breast cancer, potentially by a mechanism that also reduces mammographic density. We tested the hypothesis that the risk of developing breast cancer in the next 10 years according to the Tyrer-Cuzick prediction model influences the association between physical activity and mammographic density. We conducted a population-based cross-sectional study of 38,913 Swedish women aged 40-74 years. Physical activity was assessed using the validated web-questionnaire Active-Q and mammographic density was measured by the fully automated volumetric Volpara method. The 10-year risk of breast cancer was estimated using the Tyrer-Cuzick (TC) prediction model. Linear regression analyses were performed to assess the association between physical activity and volumetric mammographic density and the potential interaction with the TC breast cancer risk. Overall, high physical activity was associated with lower absolute dense volume. As compared to women with the lowest total activity level (<40 metabolic equivalent hours [MET-h] per day), women with the highest total activity level (≥50 MET-h/day) had an estimated 3.4 cm(3) (95% confidence interval, 2.3-4.7) lower absolute dense volume. The inverse association was seen for any type of physical activity among women with <3.0% TC 10-year risk, but only for total and vigorous activities among women with 3.0-4.9% TC risk, and only for vigorous activity among women with ≥5.0% TC risk. The association between total activity and absolute dense volume was modified by the TC breast cancer risk (P interaction = 0.05). As anticipated, high physical activity was also associated with lower non-dense volume. No consistent association was found between physical activity and percent dense volume. Our results suggest that physical activity may decrease breast cancer risk through reducing mammographic density, and that the physical activity needed to reduce mammographic density may depend on background risk of breast cancer.

Evaluation and Applications of the Prediction of Intensity Model Error (PRIME) Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhatia, K. T.; Nolan, D. S.; Demaria, M.; Schumacher, A.

2015-12-01

Forecasters and end users of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasts would greatly benefit from a reliable expectation of model error to counteract the lack of consistency in TC intensity forecast performance. As a first step towards producing error predictions to accompany each TC intensity forecast, Bhatia and Nolan (2013) studied the relationship between synoptic parameters, TC attributes, and forecast errors. In this study, we build on previous results of Bhatia and Nolan (2013) by testing the ability of the Prediction of Intensity Model Error (PRIME) model to forecast the absolute error and bias of four leading intensity models available for guidance in the Atlantic basin. PRIME forecasts are independently evaluated at each 12-hour interval from 12 to 120 hours during the 2007-2014 Atlantic hurricane seasons. The absolute error and bias predictions of PRIME are compared to their respective climatologies to determine their skill. In addition to these results, we will present the performance of the operational version of PRIME run during the 2015 hurricane season. PRIME verification results show that it can reliably anticipate situations where particular models excel, and therefore could lead to a more informed protocol for hurricane evacuations and storm preparations. These positive conclusions suggest that PRIME forecasts also have the potential to lower the error in the original intensity forecasts of each model. As a result, two techniques are proposed to develop a post-processing procedure for a multimodel ensemble based on PRIME. The first approach is to inverse-weight models using PRIME absolute error predictions (higher predicted absolute error corresponds to lower weights). The second multimodel ensemble applies PRIME bias predictions to each model's intensity forecast and the mean of the corrected models is evaluated. The forecasts of both of these experimental ensembles are compared to those of the equal-weight ICON ensemble, which currently provides the most reliable forecasts in the Atlantic basin.

Trends in educational inequalities in cause specific mortality in Norway from 1960 to 2010: a turning point for educational inequalities in cause specific mortality of Norwegian men after the millennium?

PubMed

Strand, Bjørn Heine; Steingrímsdóttir, Ólöf Anna; Grøholt, Else-Karin; Ariansen, Inger; Graff-Iversen, Sidsel; Næss, Øyvind

2014-11-24

Educational inequalities in total mortality in Norway have widened during 1960-2000. We wanted to investigate if inequalities have continued to increase in the post millennium decade, and which causes of deaths were the main drivers. All deaths (total and cause specific) in the adult Norwegian population aged 45-74 years over five decades, until 2010 were included; in all 708,449 deaths and over 62 million person years. Two indices of inequalities were used to measure inequality and changes in inequalities over time, on the relative scale (Relative Index of Inequality, RII) and on the absolute scale (Slope Index of Inequality, SII). Relative inequalities in total mortality increased over the five decades in both genders. Among men absolute inequalities stabilized during 2000-2010, after steady, significant increases each decade back to the 1960s, while in women, absolute inequalities continued to increase significantly during the last decade. The stabilization in absolute inequalities among men in the last decade was mostly due to a fall in inequalities in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality and lung cancer and respiratory disease mortality. Still, in this last decade, the absolute inequalities in cause-specific mortality among men were mostly due to cardiovascular diseases (CVD) (34% of total mortality inequality), lung cancer and respiratory diseases (21%). Among women the absolute inequalities in mortality were mostly due to lung cancer and chronic lower respiratory tract diseases (30%) and CVD (27%). In men, absolute inequalities in mortality have stopped increasing, seemingly due to reduction in inequalities in CVD mortality. Absolute inequality in mortality continues to widen among women, mostly due to death from lung cancer and chronic lung disease. Relative educational inequalities in mortality are still on the rise for Norwegian men and women.

What Do Nectaris Basin Impact Melt Rocks Look like and Where Can We Find Them?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cohen, B. A.; Petro, N. E.; Lawrence, S. J.

2015-01-01

The formation of the Nectaris basin is a key event defining the stratigraphy of the Moon. Its absolute age, therefore, is a linchpin for lunar bombardment history. Fernandes et al. gave a thorough account of the history of different samples thought to originate in Nectaris, with the upshot being there is little agreement on what samples represent Nectaris, if any. We are revisiting the effort to identify Nectaris basin impact-melt rocks at the Apollo 16 site, to model their emplacement, and to use these parameters to examine other sites where Nectaris impact melt is more abundant and/or more recognizable for potential further study.

Feasibility of dynamic risk prediction for hepatocellular carcinoma development in patients with chronic hepatitis B.

PubMed

Jeon, Mi Young; Lee, Hye Won; Kim, Seung Up; Kim, Beom Kyung; Park, Jun Yong; Kim, Do Young; Han, Kwang-Hyub; Ahn, Sang Hoon

2018-04-01

Several risk prediction models for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development are available. We explored whether the use of risk prediction models can dynamically predict HCC development at different time points in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. Between 2006 and 2014, 1397 CHB patients were recruited. All patients underwent serial transient elastography at intervals of >6 months. The median age of this study population (931 males and 466 females) was 49.0 years. The median CU-HCC, REACH-B, LSM-HCC and mREACH-B score at enrolment were 4.0, 9.0, 10.0 and 8.0 respectively. During the follow-up period (median, 68.0 months), 87 (6.2%) patients developed HCC. All risk prediction models were successful in predicting HCC development at both the first liver stiffness (LS) measurement (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.067-1.467 in the subgroup without antiviral therapy [AVT] and 1.096-1.458 in the subgroup with AVT) and second LS measurement (HR = 1.125-1.448 in the subgroup without AVT and 1.087-1.249 in the subgroup with AVT). In contrast, neither the absolute nor percentage change in the scores from the risk prediction models predicted HCC development (all P > .05). The mREACH-B score performed similarly or significantly better than did the other scores (AUROCs at 5 years, 0.694-0.862 vs 0.537-0.875). Dynamic prediction of HCC development at different time points was achieved using four risk prediction models, but not using the changes in the absolute and percentage values between two time points. The mREACH-B score was the most appropriate prediction model of HCC development among four prediction models. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

[Prediction of schistosomiasis infection rates of population based on ARIMA-NARNN model].

PubMed

Ke-Wei, Wang; Yu, Wu; Jin-Ping, Li; Yu-Yu, Jiang

2016-07-12

To explore the effect of the autoregressive integrated moving average model-nonlinear auto-regressive neural network (ARIMA-NARNN) model on predicting schistosomiasis infection rates of population. The ARIMA model, NARNN model and ARIMA-NARNN model were established based on monthly schistosomiasis infection rates from January 2005 to February 2015 in Jiangsu Province, China. The fitting and prediction performances of the three models were compared. Compared to the ARIMA model and NARNN model, the mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the ARIMA-NARNN model were the least with the values of 0.011 1, 0.090 0 and 0.282 4, respectively. The ARIMA-NARNN model could effectively fit and predict schistosomiasis infection rates of population, which might have a great application value for the prevention and control of schistosomiasis.

Trends in bidi and cigarette smoking in India from 1998 to 2015, by age, gender and education

PubMed Central

Mishra, Sujata; Joseph, Renu Ann; Gupta, Prakash C; Pezzack, Brendon; Ram, Faujdar; Sinha, Dhirendra N; Dikshit, Rajesh; Patra, Jayadeep; Jha, Prabhat

2016-01-01

Objectives Smoking of cigarettes or bidis (small, locally manufactured smoked tobacco) in India has likely changed over the last decade. We sought to document trends in smoking prevalence among Indians aged 15–69 years between 1998 and 2015. Design Comparison of 3 nationally representative surveys representing 99% of India's population; the Special Fertility and Mortality Survey (1998), the Sample Registration System Baseline Survey (2004) and the Global Adult Tobacco Survey (2010). Setting India. Participants About 14 million residents from 2.5 million homes, representative of India. Main outcome measures Age-standardised smoking prevalence and projected absolute numbers of smokers in 2015. Trends were stratified by type of tobacco smoked, age, gender and education level. Findings The age-standardised prevalence of any smoking in men at ages 15–69 years fell from about 27% in 1998 to 24% in 2010, but rose at ages 15–29 years. During this period, cigarette smoking in men became about twofold more prevalent at ages 15–69 years and fourfold more prevalent at ages 15–29 years. By contrast, bidi smoking among men at ages 15–69 years fell modestly. The age-standardised prevalence of any smoking in women at these ages was 2.7% in 2010. The smoking prevalence in women born after 1960 was about half of the prevalence in women born before 1950. By contrast, the intergenerational changes in smoking prevalence in men were much smaller. The absolute numbers of men smoking any type of tobacco at ages 15–69 years rose by about 29 million or 36% in relative terms from 79 million in 1998 to 108 million in 2015. This represents an average increase of about 1.7 million male smokers every year. By 2015, there were roughly equal numbers of men smoking cigarettes or bidis. About 11 million women aged 15–69 smoked in 2015. Among illiterate men, the prevalence of smoking rose (most sharply for cigarettes) but fell modestly among men with grade 10 or more education. The ex-smoking prevalence in men at ages 45–59 years rose modestly but was low: only 5% nationally with about 4 current smokers for every former smoker. Conclusions Despite modest decreases in smoking prevalence, the absolute numbers of male smokers aged 15–69 years has increased substantially over the last 15 years. Cigarettes are displacing bidi smoking, most notably among young adult men and illiterate men. Tobacco control policies need to adapt to these changes, most notably with higher taxation on tobacco products, so as to raise the currently low levels of adult smoking cessation. PMID:28588906

Different effects of age, adiposity and physical activity on the risk of ankle, wrist and hip fractures in postmenopausal women

PubMed Central

Armstrong, Miranda E.G.; Cairns, Benjamin J.; Banks, Emily; Green, Jane; Reeves, Gillian K.; Beral, Valerie

2012-01-01

While increasing age, decreasing body mass index (BMI), and physical inactivity are known to increase hip fracture risk, whether these factors have similar effects on other common fractures is not well established. We used prospectively-collected data from a large cohort to examine the role of these factors on the risk of incident ankle, wrist and hip fractures in postmenopausal women. 1,155,304 postmenopausal participants in the Million Women Study with a mean age of 56.0 (SD 4.8) years, provided information about lifestyle, anthropometric, and reproductive factors at recruitment in 1996–2001. All participants were linked to National Health Service cause-specific hospital records for day-case or overnight admissions. During follow-up for an average of 8.3 years per woman, 6807 women had an incident ankle fracture, 9733 an incident wrist fracture, and 5267 an incident hip fracture. Adjusted absolute and relative risks (RRs) for incident ankle, wrist, and hip fractures were calculated using Cox regression models. Age-specific rates for wrist and hip fractures increased sharply with age, whereas rates for ankle fracture did not. Cumulative absolute risks from ages 50 to 84 years per 100 women were 2.5 (95%CI 2.2–2.8) for ankle fracture, 5.0 (95%CI 4.4–5.5) for wrist fracture, and 6.2 (95%CI 5.5–7.0) for hip fracture. Compared with lean women (BMI < 20 kg/m2), obese women (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2) had a three-fold increased risk of ankle fracture (RR = 3.07; 95%CI 2.53–3.74), but a substantially reduced risk of wrist fracture and especially of hip fracture (RR = 0.57; 0.51–0.64 and 0.23; 0.21–0.27, respectively). Physical activity was associated with a reduced risk of hip fracture but was not associated with ankle or wrist fracture risk. Ankle, wrist and hip fractures are extremely common in postmenopausal women, but the associations with age, adiposity, and physical activity differ substantially between the three fracture sites. PMID:22465850

Spectra of random operators with absolutely continuous integrated density of states

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rio, Rafael del, E-mail: delrio@iimas.unam.mx, E-mail: delriomagia@gmail.com

2014-04-15

The structure of the spectrum of random operators is studied. It is shown that if the density of states measure of some subsets of the spectrum is zero, then these subsets are empty. In particular follows that absolute continuity of the integrated density of states implies singular spectra of ergodic operators is either empty or of positive measure. Our results apply to Anderson and alloy type models, perturbed Landau Hamiltonians, almost periodic potentials, and models which are not ergodic.

Decision-making in an era of cancer prevention via aspirin: New Zealand needs updated guidelines and risk calculators.

PubMed

Wilson, Nick; Selak, Vanessa; Blakely, Tony; Leung, William; Clarke, Philip; Jackson, Rod; Knight, Josh; Nghiem, Nhung

2016-03-11

Based on new systematic reviews of the evidence, the US Preventive Services Task Force has drafted updated guidelines on the use of low-dose aspirin for the primary prevention of both cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer. The Task Force generally recommends consideration of aspirin in adults aged 50-69 years with 10-year CVD risk of at least 10%, in who absolute health gain (reduction of CVD and cancer) is estimated to exceed absolute health loss (increase in bleeds). With the ongoing decline in CVD, current risk calculators for New Zealand are probably outdated, so it is difficult to be precise about what proportion of the population is in this risk category (roughly equivalent to 5-year CVD risk ≥5%). Nevertheless, we suspect that most smokers aged 50-69 years, and some non-smokers, would probably meet the new threshold for taking low-dose aspirin. The country therefore needs updated guidelines and risk calculators that are ideally informed by estimates of absolute net health gain (in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) per person) and cost-effectiveness. Other improvements to risk calculators include: epidemiological rigour (eg, by addressing competing mortality); providing enhanced graphical display of risk to enhance risk communication; and possibly capturing the issues of medication disutility and comparison with lifestyle changes.

Outcomes and Costs for Major Lung Resection in the United States: Which Patients Benefit Most From High-Volume Referral?

PubMed

Wakeam, Elliot; Hyder, Joseph A; Lipsitz, Stuart R; Darling, Gail E; Finlayson, Samuel R G

2015-09-01

Accountable care organizations are designed to improve value by decreasing costs and maintaining quality. Strategies to maximize value are needed for high-risk surgery. We wanted to understand whether certain patient groups were differentially associated with better outcomes at high-volume hospitals in terms of quality and cost. In all, 37,746 patients underwent elective major lung resection in 1,273 hospitals in the Nationwide Inpatient Sample from 2007 to 2011. Patients were stratified by hospital volume quartile and substratified by preoperative mortality risk, age, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease status. Mortality was evaluated using clustered multivariable hierarchical logistic regression controlling for patient comorbidity, demographics, and procedure. Adjusted cost was evaluated using generalized linear models fit to a gamma distribution. Patients were grouped into volume quartiles based on cases per year (less than 21, 21 to 40, 40 to 78, and more than 78). Patient characteristics and procedure mix differed across quartiles. Overall, mortality decreased across volume quartiles (lowest 1.9% versus highest 1.1%, p < 0.0001). Patients aged more than 80 years were associated with greater absolute and relative mortality rates than patients less than 60 years old in highest volume versus lowest volume hospitals (age more than 80 years, 4.2% versus 1.3%, p < 0.0001, odds ratio 3.31, 95% confidence interval: 1.89 to 5.80; age less than 60 years, 1.0% versus 0.8%, p = 0.19, odds ratio 1.38, 95% confidence interval: 0.74 to 2.56). Patients with high preoperative risk (more than 75th percentile) were also associated with lower absolute mortality in high-volume hospitals. Adjusted costs were not significantly different across quartiles or patient strata. Older patients show a significantly stronger volume-outcome relationship than patients less than 60 years of age. Costs were equivalent across volume quartile and patient strata. Selective patient referral may be a strategy to improve outcomes for elderly patients undergoing lung resection. Copyright © 2015 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Time trends in educational inequalities in cancer mortality in Colombia, 1998–2012

PubMed Central

Arroyave, Ivan; Pardo, Constanza

2016-01-01

Objectives To evaluate trends in premature cancer mortality in Colombia by educational level in three periods: 1998–2002 with low healthcare insurance coverage, 2003–2007 with rapidly increasing coverage and finally 2008–2012 with almost universal coverage (2008–2012). Setting Colombian population-based, national secondary mortality data. Participants We included all (n=188 091) cancer deaths occurring in the age group 20–64 years between 1998 and 2012, excluding only cases with low levels of quality of registration (n=2902, 1.5%). Primary and secondary outcome measures In this descriptive study, we linked mortality data of ages 20–64 years to census data to obtain age-standardised cancer mortality rates by educational level. Using Poisson regression, we modelled premature mortality by educational level estimating rate ratios (RR), relative index of inequality (RII) and the Slope Index of Inequality (SII). Results Relative measures showed increased risks of dying among the lower educated compared to the highest educated; this tendency was stronger in women (RRprimary 1.49; RRsecondary 1.22, both p<0.0001) than in men (RRprimary 1.35; RRsecondary 1.11, both p<0.0001). In absolute terms (SII), cancer caused a difference per 100 000 deaths between the highest and lowest educated of 20.5 in males and 28.5 in females. RII was significantly higher among women and the younger age categories. RII decreased between the first and second periods; afterwards (2008–2012), it increased significantly back to their previous levels. Among women, no significant increases or declines in cancer mortality over time were observed in recent periods in the lowest educated group, whereas strong recent declines were observed in those with secondary education or higher. Conclusions Educational inequalities in cancer mortality in Colombia are increasing in absolute and relative terms, and are concentrated in young age categories. This trend was not curbed by increases in healthcare insurance coverage. Policymakers should focus on improving equal access to prevention, early detection, diagnostic and treatment facilities. PMID:27048630

Atmospheric Longwave Irradiance Uncertainty: Pyrgeometers Compared to an Absolute Sky-Scanning Radiometer, Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer, and Radiative Transfer Model Calculations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Philipona, J. R.; Dutton, Ellsworth G.; Stoffel, T.

2001-06-04

Because atmospheric longwave radiation is one of the most fundamental elements of an expected climate change, there has been a strong interest in improving measurements and model calculations in recent years. Important questions are how reliable and consistent are atmospheric longwave radiation measurements and calculations and what are the uncertainties? The First International Pyrgeometer and Absolute Sky-scanning Radiometer Comparison, which was held at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program's Souther Great Plains site in Oklahoma, answers these questions at least for midlatitude summer conditions and reflects the state of the art for atmospheric longwave radiation measurements and calculations. The 15 participatingmore » pyrgeometers were all calibration-traced standard instruments chosen from a broad international community. Two new chopped pyrgeometers also took part in the comparison. And absolute sky-scanning radiometer (ASR), which includes a pyroelectric detector and a reference blackbody source, was used for the first time as a reference standard instrument to field calibrate pyrgeometers during clear-sky nighttime measurements. Owner-provided and uniformly determined blackbody calibration factors were compared. Remarkable improvements and higher pyrgeometer precision were achieved with field calibration factors. Results of nighttime and daytime pyrgeometer precision and absolute uncertainty are presented for eight consecutive days of measurements, during which period downward longwave irradiance varied between 260 and 420 W m-2. Comparisons between pyrgeometers and the absolute ASR, the atmospheric emitted radiance interferometer, and radiative transfer models LBLRTM and MODTRAN show a surprisingly good agreement of <2 W m-2 for nighttime atmospheric longwave irradiance measurements and calculations.« less

EIT Imaging of admittivities with a D-bar method and spatial prior: experimental results for absolute and difference imaging.

PubMed

Hamilton, S J

2017-05-22

Electrical impedance tomography (EIT) is an emerging imaging modality that uses harmless electrical measurements taken on electrodes at a body's surface to recover information about the internal electrical conductivity and or permittivity. The image reconstruction task of EIT is a highly nonlinear inverse problem that is sensitive to noise and modeling errors making the image reconstruction task challenging. D-bar methods solve the nonlinear problem directly, bypassing the need for detailed and time-intensive forward models, to provide absolute (static) as well as time-difference EIT images. Coupling the D-bar methodology with the inclusion of high confidence a priori data results in a noise-robust regularized image reconstruction method. In this work, the a priori D-bar method for complex admittivities is demonstrated effective on experimental tank data for absolute imaging for the first time. Additionally, the method is adjusted for, and tested on, time-difference imaging scenarios. The ability of the method to be used for conductivity, permittivity, absolute as well as time-difference imaging provides the user with great flexibility without a high computational cost.

Morphometric analysis of abdominal organs and rib cage: Implication for risk of solid organ injuries in children.

PubMed

Harbaugh, Calista M; Shlykov, Maksim A; Tsuchida, Ryan E; Holcombe, Sven A; Hirschl, Jake; Wang, Stewart C; Ehrlich, Peter F

2015-06-01

Motor vehicle crashes are the leading cause of injury-related mortality in children, with a higher rate of multiorgan injuries than in adults. This may be related to increased solid organ volume relative to abdominal cavity and decreased protection of an underdeveloped cartilaginous rib cage in young children. To date, these anatomic relationships have not been fully described. Our study used analytic morphomics to obtain precise measures of the pediatric liver, spleen, kidneys, and ribs. This pilot study included 215 trauma patients (aged 0-18 years) with anonymized computed tomography (CT) scans. Liver, spleen, and kidney volumes were modeled using semiautomatic algorithms (MATLAB 2013a, MathWorks Inc., Natick, MA). Thirty-one scans were adequate to model the rib cage. Pearson's r was used to correlate absolute organ volume, fractional organ volume, and organ exposure with age and weight. Spleen, right and left kidney, and liver volumes increased with age and weight (p < 0.01). Right/left kidney and liver fractional volumes decreased with age (p < 0.01), whereas spleen fractional volume remained relatively constant. Exposed surface area of the liver only significantly decreased with age in the anterior (p < 0.01), right (p < 0.01), and posterior views (p = 0.02). With this study, we have demonstrated the ability to model solid organ and rib cage anatomy of children using cross-sectional imaging. In younger children, there may be a decrease in fractional organ volume and increase in liver surface exposure, although analysis of a larger sample size is warranted. In the future, this information may be used to improve the design of safety restraints in motor vehicles.

Towards a clinically informed, data-driven definition of elderly onset epilepsy.

PubMed

Josephson, Colin B; Engbers, Jordan D T; Sajobi, Tolulope T; Jette, Nathalie; Agha-Khani, Yahya; Federico, Paolo; Murphy, William; Pillay, Neelan; Wiebe, Samuel

2016-02-01

Elderly onset epilepsy represents a distinct subpopulation that has received considerable attention due to the unique features of the disease in this age group. Research into this particular patient group has been limited by a lack of a standardized definition and understanding of the attributes associated with elderly onset epilepsy. We used a prospective cohort database to examine differences in patients stratified according to age of onset. Linear support vector machine learning incorporating all significant variables was used to predict age of onset according to prespecified thresholds. Sensitivity and specificity were calculated and plotted in receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) space. Feature coefficients achieving an absolute value of 0.25 or greater were graphed by age of onset to define how they vary with time. We identified 2,449 patients, of whom 149 (6%) had an age of seizure onset of 65 or older. Fourteen clinical variables had an absolute predictive value of at least 0.25 at some point over the age of epilepsy-onset spectrum. Area under the curve in ROC space was maximized between ages of onset of 65 and 70. Features identified through machine learning were frequently threshold specific and were similar, but not identical, to those revealed through simple univariable and multivariable comparisons. This study provides an empirical, clinically informed definition of "elderly onset epilepsy." If validated, an age threshold of 65-70 years can be used for future studies of elderly onset epilepsy and permits targeted interventions according to the patient's age of onset. Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2015 International League Against Epilepsy.

One session of high-intensity interval training (HIIT) every 5 days, improves muscle power but not static balance in lifelong sedentary ageing men

PubMed Central

Sculthorpe, Nicholas F.; Herbert, Peter; Grace, Fergal

2017-01-01

Abstract Background: Declining muscle power during advancing age predicts falls and loss of independence. High-intensity interval training (HIIT) may improve muscle power, but remains largely unstudied in ageing participants. Methods: This randomized controlled trial (RCT) investigated the efficacy of a low-frequency HIIT (LfHIIT) intervention on peak muscle power (peak power output [PPO]), body composition, and balance in lifelong sedentary but otherwise healthy males. Methods: Thirty-three lifelong sedentary ageing men were randomly assigned to either intervention (INT; n = 22, age 62.3 ± 4.1 years) or control (n = 11, age 61.6 ± 5.0 years) who were both assessed at 3 distinct measurement points (phase A), after 6 weeks of conditioning exercise (phase B), and after 6 weeks of HIIT once every 5 days in INT (phase C), where control remained inactive throughout the study. Results: Static balance remained unaffected, and both absolute and relative PPO were not different between groups at phases A or B, but increased significantly in INT after LfHIIT (P < 0.01). Lean body mass displayed a significant interaction (P < 0.01) due to an increase in INT between phases B and C (P < 0.05). Conclusions: 6 weeks of LfHIIT exercise feasible and effective method to induce clinically relevant improvements in absolute and relative PPO, but does not improve static balance in sedentary ageing men. PMID:28178145

One session of high-intensity interval training (HIIT) every 5 days, improves muscle power but not static balance in lifelong sedentary ageing men: A randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Sculthorpe, Nicholas F; Herbert, Peter; Grace, Fergal

2017-02-01

Declining muscle power during advancing age predicts falls and loss of independence. High-intensity interval training (HIIT) may improve muscle power, but remains largely unstudied in ageing participants. This randomized controlled trial (RCT) investigated the efficacy of a low-frequency HIIT (LfHIIT) intervention on peak muscle power (peak power output [PPO]), body composition, and balance in lifelong sedentary but otherwise healthy males. Thirty-three lifelong sedentary ageing men were randomly assigned to either intervention (INT; n = 22, age 62.3 ± 4.1 years) or control (n = 11, age 61.6 ± 5.0 years) who were both assessed at 3 distinct measurement points (phase A), after 6 weeks of conditioning exercise (phase B), and after 6 weeks of HIIT once every 5 days in INT (phase C), where control remained inactive throughout the study. Static balance remained unaffected, and both absolute and relative PPO were not different between groups at phases A or B, but increased significantly in INT after LfHIIT (P < 0.01). Lean body mass displayed a significant interaction (P < 0.01) due to an increase in INT between phases B and C (P < 0.05). 6 weeks of LfHIIT exercise feasible and effective method to induce clinically relevant improvements in absolute and relative PPO, but does not improve static balance in sedentary ageing men.

Prenatal Valproate Exposure and Risk of Autism Spectrum Disorders and Childhood Autism

PubMed Central

Christensen, Jakob; Grønborg, Therese Koops; Sørensen, Merete Juul; Schendel, Diana; Parner, Erik Thorlund; Pedersen, Lars Henning; Vestergaard, Mogens

2015-01-01

Importance Valproate is used for the treatment of epilepsy and other neuropsychological disorders and may be the only treatment option for women of childbearing potential. However, prenatal exposure to valproate may increase the risk of autism. Objective To determine whether prenatal exposure to valproate is associated with an increased risk of autism in offspring. Design, Setting, and Participants Population-based study of all children born alive in Denmark from 1996 to 2006. National registers were used to identify children exposed to valproate during pregnancy and diagnosed with autism spectrum disorders (childhood autism [autistic disorder], Asperger syndrome, atypical autism, and other or unspecified pervasive developmental disorders). We analyzed the risks associated with all autism spectrum disorders as well as childhood autism. Data were analyzed by Cox regression adjusting for potential confounders (maternal age at conception, paternal age at conception, parental psychiatric history, gestational age, birth weight, sex, congenital malformations, and parity). Children were followed up from birth until the day of autism spectrum disorder diagnosis, death, emigration, or December 31, 2010, whichever came first. Main Outcomes and Measures Absolute risk (cumulative incidence) and the hazard ratio (HR) of autism spectrum disorder and childhood autism in children after exposure to valproate in pregnancy. Results Of 655 615 children born from 1996 through 2006, 5437 were identified with autism spectrum disorder, including 2067 with childhood autism. The mean age of the children at end of follow-up was 8.84 years (range, 4-14; median, 8.85). The estimated absolute risk after 14 years of follow-up was 1.53% (95% CI, 1.47%- 1.58%) for autism spectrum disorder and 0.48% (95% CI, 0.46%-0.51%) for childhood autism. Overall, the 508 children exposed to valproate had an absolute risk of 4.42% (95% CI, 2.59%-7.46%) for autism spectrum disorder (adjusted HR, 2.9 [95% CI, 1.7-4.9]) and an absolute risk of 2.50% (95% CI, 1.30%-4.81%) for childhood autism (adjusted HR, 5.2 [95% CI, 2.7-10.0]). When restricting the cohort to the 6584 children born to women with epilepsy, the absolute risk of autism spectrum disorder among 432 children exposed to valproate was 4.15% (95% CI, 2.20%-7.81%) (adjusted HR, 1.7 [95% CI, 0.9-3.2]), and the absolute risk of childhood autism was 2.95% (95% CI, 1.42%-6.11%) (adjusted HR, 2.9 [95% CI, 1.4-6.0]) vs 2.44% (95% CI, 1.88%-3.16%) for autism spectrum disorder and 1.02% (95% CI, 0.70%-1.49%) for childhood autism among 6152 children not exposed to valproate. Conclusions and Relevance Maternal use of valproate during pregnancy was associated with a significantly increased risk of autism spectrum disorder and childhood autism in the offspring, even after adjusting for maternal epilepsy. For women of childbearing potential who use antiepileptic medications, these findings must be balanced against the treatment benefits for women who require valproate for epilepsy control. PMID:23613074

Evidence of Mobilization of Pluripotent Stem Cells into Peripheral Blood of Patients with Myocardial Ischemia

PubMed Central

Abdel-Latif, Ahmed; Zuba-Surma, Ewa K.; Ziada, Khaled M.; Kucia, Magdalena; Cohen, Donald A.; Kaplan, Alan M.; Zant, Gary Van; Selim, Samy; Smyth, Susan S.; Ratajczak, Mariusz Z.

2010-01-01

Objective The ischemic myocardium releases multiple chemotactic factors responsible for the mobilization and recruitment of bone marrow-derived cells to injured myocardium. However, the mobilization of primitive pluripotent stem cells (PSCs) enriched in Very Small Embryonic-Like stem cells (VSELs) in various cardiac ischemic scenarios is not well understood. Methods Fifty four ischemic heart disease patients, including subjects with stable angina, non-ST elevation (NSTME) myocardial infarction (MI) and ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), and twelve matched controls were enrolled. The absolute numbers of circulating stem/primitive cells in samples of peripheral blood (PB) were quantitated by Image Stream Analysis and conventional flow cytometry. Gene expression of PSC (Oct-4 and Nanog), early cardiomyocyte (Nkx-2.5 and GATA-4), and endothelial (vWF) markers was analyzed by real-time PCR. Results The absolute numbers of PSCs, stem cell populations enriched in VSELs and hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) present in PB were significantly higher in STEMI patients at presentation and declined over time. There was a corresponding increase in pluripotent, cardiac and endothelial gene expression in unfractionated PB cells and sorted PB-derived primitive CD34+ cells. The absolute numbers of circulating VSELs and HSCs in STEMI correlated negatively with patients' age. Conclusions Myocardial ischemia mobilizes primitive PSCs including pluripotent VSELs into the circulation. The peak of mobilization occurs within 12 hours in patients presenting with STEMI, which may represent a therapeutic window for future clinical applications. Reduced stem cell mobilization with advancing age could explain, in part, the observation that age is associated with poor prognosis in patients with MI. PMID:20800644

The effectiveness of undergraduate researchers and the effect of undergraduate research on the student

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wray, Dwight D.

Despite wisdom's long and rich history our understanding of what is implied by the term remains quite vague. One hundred males and eighty-three females, aged 24 to 83 years, were asked to complete the Social Belief Paradigm Inventory, which is a measure of beliefs about the social world (Kramer, Kahlbaugh, & Goldston, 1992), and rate the degree to which thirty wise statements, phrases, and quotations reflect their conceptions of wisdom. When the sample was categorized by gender, age, and educational levels, males were found to be slightly more mechanistic than females, and equally dialectical. Dialectical thinking was found to be associated more with educational level than with age. A large proportion of dialectical thinkers possessed at least a baccalaureate degree. Overall, most young, middle-aged, and older adults were dominant in the dialectical worldview. The results of a MANOVA, which tested the between-subjects effects of each of the independent variables, age, gender, and educational level on the dependent variable, worldview; and each of the four statement types, revealed a statistically non-significant effect of age, gender, or educational level on worldview. However, there were significant findings with respect to the relationship between age and relativistic thinking, and age and mechanistic thinking. Relativistic thinkers tended to be the youngest of the participants, while mechanistic thinkers tended to be the oldest. Also, a significant negative relationship was found between absolute thinking (formistic and mechanistic) and educational attainment. Wisdom items dealing with life experience, self-knowledge, the acceptance of the inevitability of change, and of the uncertainties of life, were rated highest. Postformal (dialectical) and absolute (formistic and mechanistic) thinkers differed slightly in their conceptions of wisdom. Dialectical thinkers preferred items implying uncertainty with respect to reality; such as doubting the knowledge one holds, generativity, and active engagement in the development of wisdom. Absolute thinkers preferred items that implied certainty, such as holding a body knowledge, knowing eternal truths, and permanent ideals. The study also revealed that the older one is, the more likely he/she will define wisdom in terms of the acceptance of life and its limitations. This finding may bring forth the notion that wisdom is not universal in nature, but rather contextually-based. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

Global plate motion frames: Toward a unified model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torsvik, Trond H.; Müller, R. Dietmar; van der Voo, Rob; Steinberger, Bernhard; Gaina, Carmen

2008-09-01

Plate tectonics constitutes our primary framework for understanding how the Earth works over geological timescales. High-resolution mapping of relative plate motions based on marine geophysical data has followed the discovery of geomagnetic reversals, mid-ocean ridges, transform faults, and seafloor spreading, cementing the plate tectonic paradigm. However, so-called "absolute plate motions," describing how the fragments of the outer shell of the Earth have moved relative to a reference system such as the Earth's mantle, are still poorly understood. Accurate absolute plate motion models are essential surface boundary conditions for mantle convection models as well as for understanding past ocean circulation and climate as continent-ocean distributions change with time. A fundamental problem with deciphering absolute plate motions is that the Earth's rotation axis and the averaged magnetic dipole axis are not necessarily fixed to the mantle reference system. Absolute plate motion models based on volcanic hot spot tracks are largely confined to the last 130 Ma and ideally would require knowledge about the motions within the convecting mantle. In contrast, models based on paleomagnetic data reflect plate motion relative to the magnetic dipole axis for most of Earth's history but cannot provide paleolongitudes because of the axial symmetry of the Earth's magnetic dipole field. We analyze four different reference frames (paleomagnetic, African fixed hot spot, African moving hot spot, and global moving hot spot), discuss their uncertainties, and develop a unifying approach for connecting a hot spot track system and a paleomagnetic absolute plate reference system into a "hybrid" model for the time period from the assembly of Pangea (˜320 Ma) to the present. For the last 100 Ma we use a moving hot spot reference frame that takes mantle convection into account, and we connect this to a pre-100 Ma global paleomagnetic frame adjusted 5° in longitude to smooth the reference frame transition. Using plate driving force arguments and the mapping of reconstructed large igneous provinces to core-mantle boundary topography, we argue that continental paleolongitudes can be constrained with reasonable confidence.

The Impact History Of The Moon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cohen, B. A.

2010-01-01

The bombardment history of the Earth-Moon system has been debated since the first recognition that the circular features on the Moon may be impact craters. Because the lunar impact record is the only planetary impact record to be calibrated with absolute ages, it underpins our understanding of geologic ages on every other terrestrial planet. One of the more remarkable results to come out of lunar sample analyses is the hypothesis that a large number of impact events occurred on the Moon during a narrow window in time approximately 3.8 to 4.1 billion years ago (the lunar cataclysm ). Subsequent work on the lunar and martian meteorite suites; remote sensing of the Moon, Mars, asteroids, and icy satellites; improved dynamical modeling; and investigation of terrestrial zircons extend the cataclysm hypothesis to the Earth, other terrestrial planets, and possibly the entire solar system. Renewed US and international interest in exploring the Moon offers new potential to constrain the Earth-Moon bombardment history. This paper will review the lunar bombardment record, timing and mechanisms for cataclysmic bombardment, and questions that may be answered in a new age of exploration.

Breast Implants and the Risk of Anaplastic Large-Cell Lymphoma in the Breast.

PubMed

de Boer, Mintsje; van Leeuwen, Flora E; Hauptmann, Michael; Overbeek, Lucy I H; de Boer, Jan Paul; Hijmering, Nathalie J; Sernee, Arthur; Klazen, Caroline A H; Lobbes, Marc B I; van der Hulst, René R W J; Rakhorst, Hinne A; de Jong, Daphne

2018-03-01

Breast implants are among the most commonly used medical devices. Since 2008, the number of women with breast implants diagnosed with anaplastic large-cell lymphoma in the breast (breast-ALCL) has increased, and several reports have suggested an association between breast implants and risk of breast-ALCL. However, relative and absolute risks of breast-ALCL in women with implants are still unknown, precluding evidence-based counseling about implants. To determine relative and absolute risks of breast-ALCL in women with breast implants. Through the population-based nationwide Dutch pathology registry we identified all patients diagnosed with primary non-Hodgkin lymphoma in the breast between 1990 and 2016 and retrieved clinical data, including breast implant status, from the treating physicians. We estimated the odds ratio (OR) of ALCL associated with breast implants in a case-control design, comparing implant prevalence between women with breast-ALCL and women with other types of breast lymphoma. Cumulative risk of breast-ALCL was derived from the age-specific prevalence of breast implants in Dutch women, estimated from an examination of 3000 chest x-rays and time trends from implant sales. Relative and absolute risks of breast-ALCL in women with breast implants. Among 43 patients with breast-ALCL (median age, 59 years), 32 had ipsilateral breast implants, compared with 1 among 146 women with other primary breast lymphomas (OR, 421.8; 95% CI, 52.6-3385.2). Implants among breast-ALCL cases were more often macrotextured (23 macrotextured of 28 total implants of known type, 82%) than expected (49 193 sold macrotextured implants of total sold 109 449 between 2010 and 2015, 45%) based on sales data (P < .001). The estimated prevalence of breast implants in women aged 20 to 70 years was 3.3%. Cumulative risks of breast-ALCL in women with implants were 29 per million at 50 years and 82 per million at 70 years. The number of women with implants needed to cause 1 breast-ALCL case before age 75 years was 6920. Breast implants are associated with increased risk of breast-ALCL, but the absolute risk remains small. Our results emphasize the need for increased awareness among the public, medical professionals, and regulatory bodies, promotion of alternative cosmetic procedures, and alertness to signs and symptoms of breast-ALCL in women with implants.

Measurement of the "safe zone" and the "dangerous zone" for the screw placement on the quadrilateral surface in the treatment of pelvic and acetabular fractures with Stoppa approach by computational 3D technology.

PubMed

Zhang, Sheng; Su, Wanhan; Luo, Qiang; Leung, Frankie; Chen, Bin

2014-01-01

This study is aimed at definition of the safe and dangerous zone for screw placement with Stoppa approach for rapid identification during operation and a new way for the studies on the "safe zone." Pelvic CT data of 84 human subjects were recruited to reconstruct the three-dimensional (3D) models. The distances between the edges of the "safe zone," "dangerous zone," and specific anatomic landmarks such as the obturator canal and the pelvic brim were precisely measured, respectively. The results show that the absolute "dangerous zone" was from the pelvic brim to 3.07 cm below it and within 2.86 cm of the obturator canal, while the region 3.56 cm below the pelvic brim or 3.85 cm away from the obturator canal was the absolute "safe zone" for screw placement. The region between the absolute "safe zone" and the absolute "dangerous zone" was the relatively "dangerous zone." As a conclusion, application of computer-assisted 3D modeling techniques aids in the precise measurement of "safe zone" and "dangerous zone" in combination with Stoppa incision. It was not recommended to place screws on the absolute dangerous zone, while, for the relatively "dangerous zone," it depends on the individual variations in bony anatomy and the fracture type.

Forecasting of Water Consumptions Expenditure Using Holt-Winter’s and ARIMA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Razali, S. N. A. M.; Rusiman, M. S.; Zawawi, N. I.; Arbin, N.

2018-04-01

This study is carried out to forecast water consumption expenditure of Malaysian university specifically at University Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia (UTHM). The proposed Holt-Winter’s and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were applied to forecast the water consumption expenditure in Ringgit Malaysia from year 2006 until year 2014. The two models were compared and performance measurement of the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) were used. It is found that ARIMA model showed better results regarding the accuracy of forecast with lower values of MAPE and MAD. Analysis showed that ARIMA (2,1,4) model provided a reasonable forecasting tool for university campus water usage.

Adjusting head circumference for covariates in autism: clinical correlates of a highly heritable continuous trait.

PubMed

Chaste, Pauline; Klei, Lambertus; Sanders, Stephan J; Murtha, Michael T; Hus, Vanessa; Lowe, Jennifer K; Willsey, A Jeremy; Moreno-De-Luca, Daniel; Yu, Timothy W; Fombonne, Eric; Geschwind, Daniel; Grice, Dorothy E; Ledbetter, David H; Lord, Catherine; Mane, Shrikant M; Lese Martin, Christa; Martin, Donna M; Morrow, Eric M; Walsh, Christopher A; Sutcliffe, James S; State, Matthew W; Devlin, Bernie; Cook, Edwin H; Kim, Soo-Jeong

2013-10-15

Brain development follows a different trajectory in children with autism spectrum disorders (ASD) than in typically developing children. A proxy for neurodevelopment could be head circumference (HC), but studies assessing HC and its clinical correlates in ASD have been inconsistent. This study investigates HC and clinical correlates in the Simons Simplex Collection cohort. We used a mixed linear model to estimate effects of covariates and the deviation from the expected HC given parental HC (genetic deviation). After excluding individuals with incomplete data, 7225 individuals in 1891 families remained for analysis. We examined the relationship between HC/genetic deviation of HC and clinical parameters. Gender, age, height, weight, genetic ancestry, and ASD status were significant predictors of HC (estimate of the ASD effect = .2 cm). HC was approximately normally distributed in probands and unaffected relatives, with only a few outliers. Genetic deviation of HC was also normally distributed, consistent with a random sampling of parental genes. Whereas larger HC than expected was associated with ASD symptom severity and regression, IQ decreased with the absolute value of the genetic deviation of HC. Measured against expected values derived from covariates of ASD subjects, statistical outliers for HC were uncommon. HC is a strongly heritable trait, and population norms for HC would be far more accurate if covariates including genetic ancestry, height, and age were taken into account. The association of diminishing IQ with absolute deviation from predicted HC values suggests HC could reflect subtle underlying brain development and warrants further investigation. © 2013 Society of Biological Psychiatry.

Adjusting head circumference for covariates in autism: clinical correlates of a highly heritable continuous trait

PubMed Central

Chaste, Pauline; Klei, Lambertus; Sanders, Stephan J.; Murtha, Michael T.; Hus, Vanessa; Lowe, Jennifer K.; Willsey, A. Jeremy; Moreno-De-Luca, Daniel; Yu, Timothy W.; Fombonne, Eric; Geschwind, Daniel; Grice, Dorothy E.; Ledbetter, David H.; Lord, Catherine; Mane, Shrikant M.; Martin, Christa Lese; Martin, Donna M.; Morrow, Eric M.; Walsh, Christopher A.; Sutcliffe, James S.; State, Matthew W.; Devlin, Bernie; Cook, Edwin H.; Kim, Soo-Jeong

2013-01-01

BACKGROUND Brain development follows a different trajectory in children with Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASD) than in typically developing children. A proxy for neurodevelopment could be head circumference (HC), but studies assessing HC and its clinical correlates in ASD have been inconsistent. This study investigates HC and clinical correlates in the Simons Simplex Collection cohort. METHODS We used a mixed linear model to estimate effects of covariates and the deviation from the expected HC given parental HC (genetic deviation). After excluding individuals with incomplete data, 7225 individuals in 1891 families remained for analysis. We examined the relationship between HC/genetic deviation of HC and clinical parameters. RESULTS Gender, age, height, weight, genetic ancestry and ASD status were significant predictors of HC (estimate of the ASD effect=0.2cm). HC was approximately normally distributed in probands and unaffected relatives, with only a few outliers. Genetic deviation of HC was also normally distributed, consistent with a random sampling of parental genes. Whereas larger HC than expected was associated with ASD symptom severity and regression, IQ decreased with the absolute value of the genetic deviation of HC. CONCLUSIONS Measured against expected values derived from covariates of ASD subjects, statistical outliers for HC were uncommon. HC is a strongly heritable trait and population norms for HC would be far more accurate if covariates including genetic ancestry, height and age were taken into account. The association of diminishing IQ with absolute deviation from predicted HC values suggests HC could reflect subtle underlying brain development and warrants further investigation. PMID:23746936

Mother's education and offspring asthma risk in 10 European cohort studies.

PubMed

Lewis, Kate Marie; Ruiz, Milagros; Goldblatt, Peter; Morrison, Joana; Porta, Daniela; Forastiere, Francesco; Hryhorczuk, Daniel; Zvinchuk, Oleksandr; Saurel-Cubizolles, Marie-Josephe; Lioret, Sandrine; Annesi-Maesano, Isabella; Vrijheid, Martine; Torrent, Maties; Iniguez, Carmen; Larranaga, Isabel; Harskamp-van Ginkel, Margreet W; Vrijkotte, Tanja G M; Klanova, Jana; Svancara, Jan; Barross, Henrique; Correia, Sofia; Jarvelin, Marjo-Riitta; Taanila, Anja; Ludvigsson, Johnny; Faresjo, Tomas; Marmot, Michael; Pikhart, Hynek

2017-09-01

Highly prevalent and typically beginning in childhood, asthma is a burdensome disease, yet the risk factors for this condition are not clarified. To enhance understanding, this study assessed the cohort-specific and pooled risk of maternal education on asthma in children aged 3-8 across 10 European countries. Data on 47,099 children were obtained from prospective birth cohort studies across 10 European countries. We calculated cohort-specific prevalence difference in asthma outcomes using the relative index of inequality (RII) and slope index of inequality (SII). Results from all countries were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis procedures to obtain mean RII and SII scores at the European level. Final models were adjusted for child sex, smoking during pregnancy, parity, mother's age and ethnicity. The higher the score the greater the magnitude of relative (RII, reference 1) and absolute (SII, reference 0) inequity. The pooled RII estimate for asthma risk across all cohorts was 1.46 (95% CI 1.26, 1.71) and the pooled SII estimate was 1.90 (95% CI 0.26, 3.54). Of the countries examined, France, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands had the highest prevalence's of childhood asthma and the largest inequity in asthma risk. Smaller inverse associations were noted for all other countries except Italy, which presented contradictory scores, but with small effect sizes. Tests for heterogeneity yielded significant results for SII scores. Overall, offspring of mothers with a low level of education had an increased relative and absolute risk of asthma compared to offspring of high-educated mothers.

Geologic mapping of the saturnian satellites based on Cassini ISS images: objectives, methods, and results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagner, R.; Roatsch, T.; Giese, B.; Wolf, U.; Neukum, G.

Remote Sensing of the Earth and Planets, Freie Universitaet Berlin, Germany Data set and objectives: Since the Cassini Orbiter has been inserted into orbit around Saturn on July 1, 2004, image data of the major saturnian satellites were collected by the Cassini ISS narrow and wide angle cameras (NAC and WAC respectively) at resolutions up to 10 - 20 m/pxl [1]. Up to now, the surface of each one of these satellites was imaged at least once at distances less than 20000 km. The extended image coverage and much higher resolution compared to Voyager images from more than two decades ago help to define (1) the global distribution of geologic units at regional map scale (100 - 300 m/pxl), (2) to identify units of possibly cryovolcanic origin, (3) to map tectonic landforms in detail, and (4) to use the crater size-frequency distributions measured on geologic units for relative and absolute age dating. Also (5), the stratigraphic column for each satellite can be subdivided into time-stratigraphic systems by the combination of stratigraphy and crater frequency measurements. Methods: All geologic maps are produced on image base maps put together from images of various flybys at each satellite [2]. Geologic units are identified by their specific albedo and morphology. In some cases, topographic data and digital elevation models are available. Cratering chronology models are used to derive absolute model ages from crater size-frequency measurements [3]. Important stratigraphic markers (and their associated crater frequencies and ages) which can be used to subdivide the geological history of a specific satellite are (1) volcanic flows, (2) prominent tectonic landforms, (3) large impact features, such as basins, and (4) craters with extended ray systems. Results: In this paper we focus on regional geologic maps of Dione and Rhea, two neighbours in orbit, and of Enceladus. Dione and Rhea, 1124 and 1538 km in diameter, are characterized (a) by densely cratered plains, (b) smooth, less densely cratered plains, and (3) by tectonic features, mostly horst and graben structures [4][5][6]. Cratering model ages of the densely cratered plains are on the order of 4.2 Gyr [6]. The surface of Rhea appears to be more densely cratered and hence older than the one of Dione. Also, Rhea has a higher abundance of large impact features several 100 km in diameter while only one such basin was found on Dione [6][7]. Ray craters are not abundant at crater sizes larger than 20 km except for one feature found on Rhea. Enceladus (502 km in diameter) shows a wide range of geologic units and surface ages. Densely cratered plains with ages on the order of 4 Gyr are cut by tectonic bands of ridges and grooves with various model ages ranging from 1 to more than 3 Gyr [6]. In the south polar terrain, areas almost devoid of craters and with cratering model ages much less than 4 Myr 1 reveal on-going geologic processes which recently were confirmed by the discovery of cryovolcanic activity on this moon [6][8]. References: [1] Porco, C. C. et al., Space Sci. Rev. 115, 363-497, 2004. [2] Roatsch, T. et al., Planet. Space Sci., in press, 2006. [3] Neukum G. et al., 40th ESLAB Symposium, May 8-12, 2006, abstract book, 235, 2006. [4] Plescia, J., Icarus 56, 401-413, 1983. [5] Moore, J., Icarus 59, 205-220, 1984. [6] Wagner, R. et al., LPSC XXXVII, abstr. No. 1805 [CD-Rom], 2006. [7] Stooke, P. J., LPSC XXXIII, abstr. No. 1553 [CD-Rom], 2002. [8] Porco, C. C. et al., Science 311, 1393-1401, 2006. 2

Applying Deep Learning in Medical Images: The Case of Bone Age Estimation.

PubMed

Lee, Jang Hyung; Kim, Kwang Gi

2018-01-01

A diagnostic need often arises to estimate bone age from X-ray images of the hand of a subject during the growth period. Together with measured physical height, such information may be used as indicators for the height growth prognosis of the subject. We present a way to apply the deep learning technique to medical image analysis using hand bone age estimation as an example. Age estimation was formulated as a regression problem with hand X-ray images as input and estimated age as output. A set of hand X-ray images was used to form a training set with which a regression model was trained. An image preprocessing procedure is described which reduces image variations across data instances that are unrelated to age-wise variation. The use of Caffe, a deep learning tool is demonstrated. A rather simple deep learning network was adopted and trained for tutorial purpose. A test set distinct from the training set was formed to assess the validity of the approach. The measured mean absolute difference value was 18.9 months, and the concordance correlation coefficient was 0.78. It is shown that the proposed deep learning-based neural network can be used to estimate a subject's age from hand X-ray images, which eliminates the need for tedious atlas look-ups in clinical environments and should improve the time and cost efficiency of the estimation process.

Modeling the Effects of Transmission Type, Gear Count and Ratio Spread on Fuel Economy and Performance Using ALPHA (SAE 2016-01-1143)

EPA Science Inventory

This paper presents an analysis of the effects of varying the absolute and relative gear ratios of a given transmission on fuel economy and performance, considers alternative methods of selecting absolute gear ratios, examines the effect of alternative engines on the selections o...

Exploring the Relationship Between Absolute and Relative Position and Late-Life Depression: Evidence From 10 European Countries

PubMed Central

Ladin, Keren; Daniels, Norman; Kawachi, Ichiro

2010-01-01

Purpose: Socioeconomic inequality has been associated with higher levels of morbidity and mortality. This study explores the role of absolute and relative deprivation in predicting late-life depression on both individual and country levels. Design and Methods: Country- and individual-level inequality indicators were used in multivariate logistic regression and in relative indexes of inequality. Data obtained from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE, Wave 1, Release 2) included 22,777 men and women (aged 50–104 years) from 10 European countries. Late-life depression was measured using the EURO-D scale and corresponding clinical cut point. Absolute deprivation was measured using gross domestic product and median household income at the country level and socioeconomic status at the individual level. Relative deprivation was measured by Gini coefficients at the country level and educational attainment at the individual level. Results: Rates of depression ranged from 18.10% in Denmark to 36.84% in Spain reflecting a clear north–south gradient. Measures of absolute and relative deprivation were significant in predicting depression at both country and individual levels. Findings suggest that the adverse impact of societal inequality cannot be overcome by increased individual-level or country-level income. Increases in individual-level income did not mitigate the effect of country-level relative deprivation. Implications: Mental health disparities persist throughout later life whereby persons exposed to higher levels of country-level inequality suffer greater morbidity compared with those in countries with less inequality. Cross-national variation in the relationship between inequality and depression illuminates the need for further research. PMID:19515635

Day-to-day variation of urinary NGAL and rational for creatinine correction.

PubMed

Helmersson-Karlqvist, Johanna; Arnlöv, Johan; Larsson, Anders

2013-01-01

The number of clinical studies evaluating the new tubular biomarker urinary neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (U-NGAL) in urine are increasing. There is no consensus whether absolute U-NGAL concentrations or urinary NGAL/creatinine (U-NGAL/Cr) ratios should be used when chronic tubular dysfunction is studied. The aim was to study the biological variation of U-NGAL in healthy subjects and the rational for urinary creatinine (U-Cr) correction in two different study samples. To study biological variation of U-NGAL and U-NGAL/Cr ratio and the association between U-NGAL and U-Cr in healthy subjects 13 young males and females (median age 29 years) collected morning urine in 10 consecutive days. Additionally, a random subsample of 400 males from a population-based cohort (aged 78 years) collecting 24-hour urine during 1 day was studied. The calculated biological variation for absolute U-NGAL was 27% and for U-NGAL/Cr ratio, 101%. Absolute U-NGAL increased linearly with U-Cr concentration (the theoretical basis for creatinine adjustment) in the older males (R=0.19, P<0.001) and with borderline significance in the young adults (R=0.16, P=0.08). The U-NGAL/Cr ratio was, however, negatively associated with creatinine in the older males (R=-0.14, P<0.01) and in the young adults (R=-0.16, P=0.07) indicating a slight "overadjustment." The study provides some support for the use of U-NGAL/Cr ratio but the rather large biological variation and risk of possible overadjustment need to be considered. Both absolute U-NGAL and U-NGAL/Cr ratios should be reported for the estimation of chronic tubular dysfunction. Copyright © 2012 The Canadian Society of Clinical Chemists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Might extended education decrease inequalities in health?-a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Ljungdahl, Sofia; Bremberg, Sven G

2015-08-01

Health is substantially worse in less educated people, and extended education might potentially improve their health. A prerequisite for a beneficial health effect of education is that the effect is absolute. An absolute effect of education means that the health effect comes about independently of any effect on other persons. A relative effect, on the other hand, only contributes to individual competitiveness in relation to others. Studies of natural experiments of extended compulsory education, and other educational-policy changes, provide an option for the analysis of absolute effects of education. Published studies, however, present conflicting results. A meta-analysis was performed of European studies where the health effects of extended compulsory or secondary level education on low-educated individuals were investigated. Twenty-two relevant publications were identified. The meta-analysis indicated statistically significant favourable effects of educational reforms on rates of mortality, self-reported poor health and obesity. The effects were, however, small, 1-4%. An educational reform that typically added one educational year in the least educated group was associated with a mean 2.1% reduction in mortality in men before age 40. This effect might be compared with the total educational gradients of mortality rates in Swedish men at ages 30-64. One extra year of education after compulsory education corresponds to a 41% reduction in mortality, which is 20 times more than the absolute effect of education found in this meta-analysis. Thus, it unlikely that extended compulsory education will substantially improve the health of the least educated individuals. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Social and spatial patterns of obesity diffusion over three decades in a Norwegian county population: the HUNT Study

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background In order to develop effective preventive strategies, knowledge of trends in socioeconomic and geographical differences in risk factor levels is important. The objective of this study was to examine social and spatial patterns of obesity diffusion in a Norwegian population during three decades. Methods Data on adults aged 30–69 years from three cross-sectional health surveys eleven years apart in the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study, Norway, HUNT1 (1984–1986), HUNT2 (1995–1997) and HUNT3 (2006–2008) were utilized. Body mass index (BMI) was used as a measure of obesity. Height and weight were measured clinically. Age standardized prevalences, absolute prevalence differences and ratios, prevalence odds ratios for BMI and the Relative Index of Inequality (RII) were calculated. Multilevel statistical models were fitted for analysing geographical patterns. Results The prevalence of obesity was systematically higher in groups with lower socio-economic status and increased successively in all groups in the population during the three decades. The relative socioeconomic inequalities in obesity measured by level of education did not change substantially in the period. In HUNT1 (1984–86) obesity was most prevalent among low educated women (14.1%) and in HUNT3 (2006–08) among low educated men (30.4%). The RII for men changed from 2.60 to 1.91 and 2.36 in HUNT1, HUNT2 and HUNT3. In women the RIIs were 1.71, 2.28 and 2.30 correspondingly. However, the absolute obesity prevalence inequalities increased, and a geographical diffusion from central to distal districts was observed from HUNT2 to HUNT3. Conclusions The prevalence of obesity increased in all socioeconomic groups in this Norwegian adult county population from the 1980ies up to present time. The data did not suggest increasing relative inequalities, but increasing absolute socioeconomic differences and a geographical diffusion towards rural districts. Public health preventive strategies should be oriented to counteract the obesity epidemic in the population. PMID:24138786

THE HAWAII INFRARED PARALLAX PROGRAM. II. YOUNG ULTRACOOL FIELD DWARFS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Michael C.; Dupuy, Trent J.; Allers, Katelyn N., E-mail: mliu@ifa.hawaii.edu

We present a large, uniform analysis of young (≈10–150 Myr) ultracool dwarfs, based on new high-precision infrared (IR) parallaxes for 68 objects. We find that low-gravity (vl-g) late-M and L dwarfs form a continuous sequence in IR color–magnitude diagrams, separate from the field population and from current theoretical models. These vl-g objects also appear distinct from young substellar (brown dwarf and exoplanet) companions, suggesting that the two populations may have a different range of physical properties. In contrast, at the L/T transition, young, old, and spectrally peculiar objects all span a relatively narrow range in near-IR absolute magnitudes. At a given spectralmore » type, the IR absolute magnitudes of young objects can be offset from ordinary field dwarfs, with the largest offsets occurring in the Y and J bands for late-M dwarfs (brighter than the field) and mid-/late-L dwarfs (fainter than the field). Overall, low-gravity (vl-g) objects have the most uniform photometric behavior, while intermediate gravity (int-g) objects are more diverse, suggesting a third governing parameter beyond spectral type and gravity class. We examine the moving group membership for all young ultracool dwarfs with parallaxes, changing the status of 23 objects (including 8 previously identified planetary-mass candidates) and fortifying the status of another 28 objects. We use our resulting age-calibrated sample to establish empirical young isochrones and show a declining frequency of vl-g objects relative to int-g objects with increasing age. Notable individual objects in our sample include high-velocity (≳100 km s{sup −1}) int-g objects, very red late-L dwarfs with high surface gravities, candidate disk-bearing members of the MBM20 cloud and β  Pic moving group, and very young distant interlopers. Finally, we provide a comprehensive summary of the absolute magnitudes and spectral classifications of young ultracool dwarfs, using a combined sample of 102 objects found in the field and as substellar companions to young stars.« less

A comparison of portfolio selection models via application on ISE 100 index data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Altun, Emrah; Tatlidil, Hüseyin

2013-10-01

Markowitz Model, a classical approach to portfolio optimization problem, relies on two important assumptions: the expected return is multivariate normally distributed and the investor is risk averter. But this model has not been extensively used in finance. Empirical results show that it is very hard to solve large scale portfolio optimization problems with Mean-Variance (M-V)model. Alternative model, Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) model which is proposed by Konno and Yamazaki [7] has been used to remove most of difficulties of Markowitz Mean-Variance model. MAD model don't need to assume that the probability of the rates of return is normally distributed and based on Linear Programming. Another alternative portfolio model is Mean-Lower Semi Absolute Deviation (M-LSAD), which is proposed by Speranza [3]. We will compare these models to determine which model gives more appropriate solution to investors.

Predictive model for serious bacterial infections among infants younger than 3 months of age.

PubMed

Bachur, R G; Harper, M B

2001-08-01

To develop a data-derived model for predicting serious bacterial infection (SBI) among febrile infants <3 months old. All infants /=38.0 degrees C seen in an urban emergency department (ED) were retrospectively identified. SBI was defined as a positive culture of urine, blood, or cerebrospinal fluid. Tree-structured analysis via recursive partitioning was used to develop the model. SBI or No-SBI was the dichotomous outcome variable, and age, temperature, urinalysis (UA), white blood cell (WBC) count, absolute neutrophil count, and cerebrospinal fluid WBC were entered as potential predictors. The model was tested by V-fold cross-validation. Of 5279 febrile infants studied, SBI was diagnosed in 373 patients (7%): 316 urinary tract infections (UTIs), 17 meningitis, and 59 bacteremia (8 with meningitis, 11 with UTIs). The model sequentially used 4 clinical parameters to define high-risk patients: positive UA, WBC count >/=20 000/mm(3) or /=39.6 degrees C, and age <13 days. The sensitivity of the model for SBI is 82% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 78%-86%) and the negative predictive value is 98.3% (95% CI: 97.8%-98.7%). The negative predictive value for bacteremia or meningitis is 99.6% (95% CI: 99.4%-99.8%). The relative risk between high- and low-risk groups is 12.1 (95% CI: 9.3-15.6). Sixty-six SBI patients (18%) were misclassified into the lower risk group: 51 UTIs, 14 with bacteremia, and 1 with meningitis. Decision-tree analysis using common clinical variables can reasonably predict febrile infants at high-risk for SBI. Sequential use of UA, WBC count, temperature, and age can identify infants who are at high risk of SBI with a relative risk of 12.1 compared with lower-risk infants.

Prevalence of refractive errors in the Slovak population calculated using the Gullstrand schematic eye model.

PubMed

Popov, I; Valašková, J; Štefaničková, J; Krásnik, V

2017-01-01

A substantial part of the population suffers from some kind of refractive errors. It is envisaged that their prevalence may change with the development of society. The aim of this study is to determine the prevalence of refractive errors using calculations based on the Gullstrand schematic eye model. We used the Gullstrand schematic eye model to calculate refraction retrospectively. Refraction was presented as the need for glasses correction at a vertex distance of 12 mm. The necessary data was obtained using the optical biometer Lenstar LS900. Data which could not be obtained due to the limitations of the device was substituted by theoretical data from the Gullstrand schematic eye model. Only analyses from the right eyes were presented. The data was interpreted using descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation and t-test. The statistical tests were conducted at a level of significance of 5%. Our sample included 1663 patients (665 male, 998 female) within the age range of 19 to 96 years. Average age was 70.8 ± 9.53 years. Average refraction of the eye was 2.73 ± 2.13D (males 2.49 ± 2.34, females 2.90 ± 2.76). The mean absolute error from emmetropia was 3.01 ± 1.58 (males 2.83 ± 2.95, females 3.25 ± 3.35). 89.06% of the sample was hyperopic, 6.61% was myopic and 4.33% emmetropic. We did not find any correlation between refraction and age. Females were more hyperopic than males. We did not find any statistically significant hypermetopic shift of refraction with age. According to our estimation, the calculations of refractive errors using the Gullstrand schematic eye model showed a significant hypermetropic shift of more than +2D. Our results could be used in future for comparing the prevalence of refractive errors using same methods we used.Key words: refractive errors, refraction, Gullstrand schematic eye model, population, emmetropia.

Host-Guest Assembly of a Molecular Reporter with Chiral Cyanohydrins for Assignment of Absolute Stereochemistry.

PubMed

Gholami, Hadi; Anyika, Mercy; Zhang, Jun; Vasileiou, Chrysoula; Borhan, Babak

2016-06-27

The absolute stereochemistry of cyanohydrins, derived from ketones and aldehydes, is obtained routinely, in a microscale and derivatization-free manner, upon their complexation with Zn-MAPOL, a zincated porphyrin host with a binding pocket comprised of a biphenol core. The host-guest complex leads to observable exciton-coupled circular dichroism (ECCD), the sign of which is easily correlated to the absolute stereochemistry of the bound cyanohydrin. A working model, based on the ECCD signal of cyanohydrins with known configuration, is proposed. © 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Development and Validation of a Novel Pediatric Appendicitis Risk Calculator (pARC).

PubMed

Kharbanda, Anupam B; Vazquez-Benitez, Gabriela; Ballard, Dustin W; Vinson, David R; Chettipally, Uli K; Kene, Mamata V; Dehmer, Steven P; Bachur, Richard G; Dayan, Peter S; Kuppermann, Nathan; O'Connor, Patrick J; Kharbanda, Elyse O

2018-04-01

We sought to develop and validate a clinical calculator that can be used to quantify risk for appendicitis on a continuous scale for patients with acute abdominal pain. The pediatric appendicitis risk calculator (pARC) was developed and validated through secondary analyses of 3 distinct cohorts. The derivation sample included visits to 9 pediatric emergency departments between March 2009 and April 2010. The validation sample included visits to a single pediatric emergency department from 2003 to 2004 and 2013 to 2015. Variables evaluated were as follows: age, sex, temperature, nausea and/or vomiting, pain duration, pain location, pain with walking, pain migration, guarding, white blood cell count, and absolute neutrophil count. We used stepwise regression to develop and select the best model. Test performance of the pARC was compared with the Pediatric Appendicitis Score (PAS). The derivation sample included 2423 children, 40% of whom had appendicitis. The validation sample included 1426 children, 35% of whom had appendicitis. The final pARC model included the following variables: sex, age, duration of pain, guarding, pain migration, maximal tenderness in the right-lower quadrant, and absolute neutrophil count. In the validation sample, the pARC exhibited near perfect calibration and a high degree of discrimination (area under the curve: 0.85; 95% confidence interval: 0.83 to 0.87) and outperformed the PAS (area under the curve: 0.77; 95% confidence interval: 0.75 to 0.80). By using the pARC, almost half of patients in the validation cohort could be accurately classified as at <15% risk or ≥85% risk for appendicitis, whereas only 23% would be identified as having a comparable PAS of <3 or >8. In our validation cohort of patients with acute abdominal pain, the pARC accurately quantified risk for appendicitis. Copyright © 2018 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Societal Preferences for EQ-5D Health States from a Brazilian Population Survey.

PubMed

Viegas Andrade, Mônica; Noronha, Kenya; Kind, Paul; Maia, Ana Carolina; Miranda de Menezes, Renata; De Barros Reis, Carla; Nepomuceno Souza, Michelle; Martins, Diego; Gomes, Lucas; Nichele, Daniel; Calazans, Julia; Mascarenhas, Tamires; Carvalho, Lucas; Lins, Camila

2013-12-01

To elicit preference weights for a subset of EuroQol five-dimensional (EQ-5D) questionnaire health states from a representative sample for the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, using a time trade-off (TTO) method and to analyze these data so as to estimate social preference weights for the complete set of 243 states. Data came from a valuation study with 3362 literate individuals aged between 18 and 64 years living in urban areas. The present study was based on quota sampling by age and sex. Face-to-face interviews were conducted in participants' own homes. A total of 99 EQ-5D questionnaire health states were selected, presorted into 26 blocks of six unique health states. Each participant valued one block together with the full health, worst health, and dead states. Each health state was evaluated by more than 100 individuals. TTO data were modeled at both individual and aggregate levels by using ordinary least squares and random effects methods. Values estimated by different models yielded very similar results with satisfactory goodness-of-fit statistics: the mean absolute error was around 0.03 and fewer than 25% of the states had a mean absolute error greater than 0.05. Dummies coefficients for each level within the EQ-5D questionnaire dimensions of health displayed an internally consistent ordering, with the mobility dimension demonstrating the largest value decrement. The values of mean observed transformed TTO values range from 0.869 to-0.235. The study demonstrates the feasibility of conducting face-to-face interviews using TTO in a Brazilian population setting. The estimated values for EQ-5D questionnaire health states based on this Minas Gerais survey represent an important first step in establishing national Brazilian social preference weights for the EQ-5D questionnaire. Copyright © 2013 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Socio-economic inequality in multiple health complaints among adolescents: international comparative study in 37 countries.

PubMed

Holstein, Bjørn E; Currie, Candace; Boyce, Will; Damsgaard, Mogens T; Gobina, Inese; Kökönyei, Gyöngyi; Hetland, Jørn; de Looze, Margaretha; Richter, Matthias; Due, Pernille

2009-09-01

To use comparable data from many countries to examine 1) socio-economic inequality in multiple health complaints among adolescents, 2) whether the countries' absolute wealth and economic inequality was associated with symptom load among adolescents, and 3) whether the countries' absolute wealth and economic inequality explained part of the individual level socio-economic variation in health complaints. The Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (HBSC) international study from 2005/06 provided data on 204,534 11-, 13- and 15-year old students from nationally random samples of schools in 37 countries in Europe and North America. The outcome measure was prevalence of at least two daily health complaints, measured by the HBSC Symptom Check List. We included three independent variables at the individual level (sex, age group, family affluence measured by the Family Affluence Scale FAS) and two macro level measures on the country's economic situation: wealth measured by Gross National Product (GNP) and distribution of income measured by the Gini coefficient. There was a significant socio-economic variation in health complaints in 31 of the 37 countries. The overall OR (95 % CI) for 2+ daily health complaints for all countries was 1.31 (1.27-1.36) in the medium versus high FAS group and 2.07 (2.00-2.14) in the low versus high FAS group. This socio-economic gradient in health complaints attenuated somewhat in the multilevel models which included macro level data. There was no association between GNP and health complaints. The OR for high symptom load was 1.35 (1.08-1.69) per 10 % increase in Gini coefficient. The socio-economic gradient in health complaints at the individual level was somewhat attenuated in the multilevel models which included macro level data. There was a significant association between low FAS and high level of health complaints in 30 of 37 countries. Health complaints increased significantly by increasing income inequality in the country.

Preliminary report on macroscopic age changes in the human prosencephalon. A stereologic investigation.

PubMed

Eggers, R; Haug, H; Fischer, D

1984-01-01

The studies here reported were performed on the prosencephalons of 12 human brains between 37 and 86 years of age having no signs of neuropathological alteration. The evaluation was carried out on serial frontal sections with a mean thickness of 5 mm with stereological point counting procedures for volume and surface area. The results were mainly given in relative values since the range of variation is very high and the sample small. The aging process was evaluated with the aid of a linear regression function. The stereological investigation regarding the absolute values of volume and surface area (border face) of the macroscopical brain parts show a high interindividual variability. However, the relative volume of brain parts shows only small variations. Changes during aging could consequently only be revealed with the help of the relative values. The relative volumes and surface areas of the frontal lobe and the prosencephalic ganglia decrease with aging, while the parieto-occipital lobe and the striate cortex increase. However, if we refer these relative increases to the absolute decrease of brain volume, corresponding changes cannot be found in the parieto-occipital lobe until old age. The shrinkage of the frontal lobe, of the centrum semiovale and of the prosencephalic ganglia exceeds 10%. In the grays it is probably accompanied by a loss of neurons. The relative sizes of the surface area do not change significantly during aging with exception of the frontal cortex. The thickness of the cortex remains probably constant. The size of lateral ventricles increases with aging.

Evaluation of Ages in the Lunar Highlands with Implications for the Evolution of the Moon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borg, L. E.; Gaffney, A. M.; Carlson, R. W.

2012-12-01

The lunar highlands are composed of rocks from the ferroan anorthosite (FAN) and Mg-suites. These samples have been extensively studied because they record most of the major events associated with the formation and evolution of the Earth's Moon. Despite their potential to constrain the timing of these events, chronologic investigations are often ambiguous; in most cases because absolute ages and/or initial isotopic compositions are inconsistent with stratigraphic and petrologic relationships of various rock suites inferred from mineralogical and geochemical studies. The problem is exacerbated by the fact that most samples are difficult to date due to their small size and nearly monomineralic nature, as well as isotopic disturbances associated with impacts. Here several criteria are used to assess the reliability of lunar ages, including: (1) concordance between multiple chronometers, (2) linearity of individual isochrons, (3) resistance of the chronometers to disruption by impact or contamination, (4) consistency between initial isotopic compositions and the petrogenisis of samples, and (5) reasonableness of the elemental concentrations of mineral fractions. If only those samples that meet 4 out of 5 of these criteria are used to constrain lunar chronology many of the apparent conflicts between chronometry and petrology disappear. For example, this analysis demonstrates that the most ancient ages reported for lunar samples are some of the least reliable. The oldest ages determined on both FAN and Mg-suite highland rocks with confidence are in fact ~4.35 Ga. This age is concordant with 142Nd mare source formation ages and a peak in zircon ages, suggesting it represents a major event at ~4.35 Ga. In contrast, several apparently reliable KREEP model ages are older at ~4.48 Ga. If these older model ages are correct, they may represent the solidification age of the Moon, whereas the 4.35 Ga event could reflect secondary magmatism and cumulate re-equilibration associated with density overturn of primordial magma ocean cumulates.

Absolute Parameters and Physical Nature of the Low-amplitude Contact Binary HI Draconis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papageorgiou, A.; Christopoulou, P.-E.

2015-05-01

We present a detailed investigation of the low-amplitude contact binary HI Dra based on the new VRcIc CCD photometric light curves (LCs) combined with published radial velocity (RV) curves. Our completely covered LCs were analyzed using PHOEBE and revealed that HI Dra is an overcontact binary with low fill-out factor f = 24 ± 4(%) and temperature difference between the components of 330 K. Two spotted models are proposed to explain the LC asymmetry, between which the A subtype of W UMa type eclipsing systems, with a cool spot on the less massive and cooler component, proves to be more plausible on evolutionary grounds. The results and stability of the solutions were explored by heuristic scan and parameter perturbation to provide a consistent and reliable set of parameters and their errors. Our photometric modeling and RV curve solution give the following absolute parameters of the hot and cool components, respectively: Mh = 1.72 ± 0.08 {{M}⊙ } and Mc = 0.43 ± 0.02 {{M}⊙ }, Rh = 1.98 ± 0.03 {{R}⊙ } and Rc = 1.08 ± 0.02 {{R}⊙ }, and Lh = 9.6 ± 0.1 {{L}⊙ } and Lc = 2.4 ± 0.1 {{L}⊙ }. Based on these results the initial masses of the progenitors (1.11 ± 0.03 {{M}⊙ } and 2.25 ± 0.07 {{M}⊙ }, respectively) and a rough estimate of the age of the system of 2.4 Gyr are discussed.

On gravity from SST, geoid from Seasat, and plate age and fracture zones in the Pacific

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marsh, B. D.; Marsh, J. G.; Williamson, R. G. (Principal Investigator)

1984-01-01

A composite map produced by combining 90 passes of SST data show good agreement with conventional GEM models. The SEASAT altimeter data were deduced and found to agree with both the SST and GEM fields. The maps are dominated (especially in the east) by a pattern of roughly east-west anomalies with a transverse wavelength of about 2000 km. Comparison with regional bathymetric data shows a remarkedly close correlation with plate age. Most anomalies in the east half of the Pacific could be partly caused by regional differences in plate age. The amplitude of these geoid or gravity anomalies caused by age differences should decrease with absolute plate age, and large anomalies (approximately 3 m) over old, smooth sea floor may indicate a further deeper source within or perhaps below the lithosphere. The possible plume size and ascent velocity necessary to supply deep mantle material to the upper mantle without complete thermal equilibration was considered. A plume emanating from a buoyant layer 100 km thick and 10,000 times less viscous than the surrounding mantle should have a diameter of about 400 km and must ascend at about 10 cm/yr to arrive still anomalously hot in the uppermost mantle.

Absolute electrical impedance tomography (aEIT) guided ventilation therapy in critical care patients: simulations and future trends.

PubMed

Denaï, Mouloud A; Mahfouf, Mahdi; Mohamad-Samuri, Suzani; Panoutsos, George; Brown, Brian H; Mills, Gary H

2010-05-01

Thoracic electrical impedance tomography (EIT) is a noninvasive, radiation-free monitoring technique whose aim is to reconstruct a cross-sectional image of the internal spatial distribution of conductivity from electrical measurements made by injecting small alternating currents via an electrode array placed on the surface of the thorax. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the fundamentals of EIT and demonstrate the principles of mechanical ventilation, lung recruitment, and EIT imaging on a comprehensive physiological model, which combines a model of respiratory mechanics, a model of the human lung absolute resistivity as a function of air content, and a 2-D finite-element mesh of the thorax to simulate EIT image reconstruction during mechanical ventilation. The overall model gives a good understanding of respiratory physiology and EIT monitoring techniques in mechanically ventilated patients. The model proposed here was able to reproduce consistent images of ventilation distribution in simulated acutely injured and collapsed lung conditions. A new advisory system architecture integrating a previously developed data-driven physiological model for continuous and noninvasive predictions of blood gas parameters with the regional lung function data/information generated from absolute EIT (aEIT) is proposed for monitoring and ventilator therapy management of critical care patients.

Modification of the Integrated Sasang Constitutional Diagnostic Model

PubMed Central

Nam, Jiho

2017-01-01

In 2012, the Korea Institute of Oriental Medicine proposed an objective and comprehensive physical diagnostic model to address quantification problems in the existing Sasang constitutional diagnostic method. However, certain issues have been raised regarding a revision of the proposed diagnostic model. In this paper, we propose various methodological approaches to address the problems of the previous diagnostic model. Firstly, more useful variables are selected in each component. Secondly, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator is used to reduce multicollinearity without the modification of explanatory variables. Thirdly, proportions of SC types and age are considered to construct individual diagnostic models and classify the training set and the test set for reflecting the characteristics of the entire dataset. Finally, an integrated model is constructed with explanatory variables of individual diagnosis models. The proposed integrated diagnostic model significantly improves the sensitivities for both the male SY type (36.4% → 62.0%) and the female SE type (43.7% → 64.5%), which were areas of limitation of the previous integrated diagnostic model. The ideas of these new algorithms are expected to contribute not only to the scientific development of Sasang constitutional medicine in Korea but also to that of other diagnostic methods for traditional medicine. PMID:29317897

Retrieving chronological age from dental remains of early fossil hominins to reconstruct human growth in the past.

PubMed

Dean, M Christopher

2010-10-27

A chronology of dental development in Pan troglodytes is arguably the best available model with which to compare and contrast reconstructed dental chronologies of the earliest fossil hominins. Establishing a time scale for growth is a requirement for being able to make further comparative observations about timing and rate during both dento-skeletal growth and brain growth. The absolute timing of anterior tooth crown and root formation appears not to reflect the period of somatic growth. In contrast, the molar dentition best reflects changes to the total growth period. Earlier initiation of molar mineralization, shorter crown formation times, less root length formed at gingival emergence into functional occlusion are cumulatively expressed as earlier ages at molar eruption. Things that are similar in modern humans and Pan, such as the total length of time taken to form individual teeth, raise expectations that these would also have been the same in fossil hominins. The best evidence there is from the youngest fossil hominin specimens suggests a close resemblance to the model for Pan but also hints that Gorilla may be a better developmental model for some. A mosaic of great ape-like features currently best describes the timing of early hominin dental development.

Retrieving chronological age from dental remains of early fossil hominins to reconstruct human growth in the past

PubMed Central

Dean, M. Christopher

2010-01-01

A chronology of dental development in Pan troglodytes is arguably the best available model with which to compare and contrast reconstructed dental chronologies of the earliest fossil hominins. Establishing a time scale for growth is a requirement for being able to make further comparative observations about timing and rate during both dento-skeletal growth and brain growth. The absolute timing of anterior tooth crown and root formation appears not to reflect the period of somatic growth. In contrast, the molar dentition best reflects changes to the total growth period. Earlier initiation of molar mineralization, shorter crown formation times, less root length formed at gingival emergence into functional occlusion are cumulatively expressed as earlier ages at molar eruption. Things that are similar in modern humans and Pan, such as the total length of time taken to form individual teeth, raise expectations that these would also have been the same in fossil hominins. The best evidence there is from the youngest fossil hominin specimens suggests a close resemblance to the model for Pan but also hints that Gorilla may be a better developmental model for some. A mosaic of great ape-like features currently best describes the timing of early hominin dental development. PMID:20855313

Status change during adulthood: life-history by-product or kin selection based on reproductive value?

PubMed Central

Combes, S. L.; Altmann, J.

2001-01-01

When dominance status predicts fitness, most adaptive models of dominance relationships among cercopithecine primate females predict lifetime maintenance of status. These models and alternative ones positing rank decline as a non-adaptive by-product have remained largely untested, however, because lifetime status of older adults has been virtually unknown for natural populations. In a 25-year study of adult female savannah baboons (Papio cynocephalus), in each of three social groups, rank losses were common among the 66 females that lived past median adult age. These losses were not accounted for by loss in relative rank from group growth or by loss in absolute rank from reversals in rank between members of different maternal families or between sisters. Rather, females that had mature daughters experienced loss of dominance status to these offspring, a characteristic of all but the top-ranking matriline of each group. Among proposed hypotheses for rank reversals between adults, that of kin selection based on relative reproductive value is most clearly supported by these data. In contrast, observed patterns of rank loss are not consistent with alternative models that postulate that changes during adult lifespan are a product of accumulated risk, physical decline during ageing, or coalitionary support among females within or between matrilines. PMID:11429136

Optical Characterization of Paper Aging Based on Laser-Induced Fluorescence (LIF) Spectroscopy.

PubMed

Zhang, Hao; Wang, Shun; Chang, Keke; Sun, Haifeng; Guo, Qingqian; Ma, Liuzheng; Yang, Yatao; Zou, Caihong; Wang, Ling; Hu, Jiandong

2018-06-01

Paper aging and degradation are growing concerns for those who are responsible for the conservation of documents, archives, and libraries. In this study, the paper aging was investigated using laser-induced fluorescence spectroscopy (LIFS), where the fluorescence properties of 47 paper samples with different ages were explored. The paper exhibits fluorescence in the blue-green spectral region with two peaks at about 448 nm and 480 nm under the excitation of 405 nm laser. Both fluorescence peaks changed in absolute intensities and thus the ratio of peak intensities was also influenced with the increasing ages. By applying principal component analysis (PCA) and k-means clustering algorithm, all 47 paper samples were classified into nine groups based on the differences in paper age. Then the first-derivative fluorescence spectral curves were proposed to figure out the relationship between the spectral characteristic and the paper age, and two quantitative models were established based on the changes of first-derivative spectral peak at 443 nm, where one is an exponential fitting curve with an R-squared value of 0.99 and another is a linear fitting curve with an R-squared value of 0.88. The results demonstrated that the combination of fluorescence spectroscopy and PCA can be used for the classification of paper samples with different ages. Moreover, the first-derivative fluorescence spectral curves can be used to quantitatively evaluate the age-related changes of paper samples.

Age-related changes in sleep-wake rhythm in dog.

PubMed

Takeuchi, Takashi; Harada, Etsumori

2002-10-17

To investigate a sleep-wake rhythm in aged dogs, a radio-telemetry monitoring was carried out for 24 h. Electrodes and telemetry device were surgically implanted in four aged dogs (16-18 years old) and four young dogs (3-4 years old). Electroencephalogram (EEG), electromyogram (EMG) and electrocardiogram (ECG) were recorded simultaneously as parameters to determine vigilance states and an autonomic nervous function. Wakefulness, slow wave sleep (SWS) and paradoxical sleep (PS) were identified according to the EEG and EMG pattern. We also examined whether absolute powers and the low frequency-to-high frequency ratio (LF/HF) derived from the heart rate variability power spectrum could detect shifts in autonomic balance correlated with aging. The aged dogs showed a marked reduction of PS and a fragmentation of wakefulness in the daytime and a sleep disruption in the night. The pattern of 24 h sleep and waking was dramatically altered in the aged dog. It was characterized by an increase in the total amount of time spent in SWS during the daytime followed by an increasing of time spent in wakefulness during the night. Furthermore, LF/HF ratio showed a very low amplitude of variance throughout the day in the aged dog. These results suggest that the aged dog is a useful model to investigate sleep disorders in human such as daytime drowsiness, difficulties in sleep maintenance. The abnormality in sleep-wake cycle might be reflected by the altered autonomic balance in the aged dogs.

A Southern Ocean Diatom Record of the Mid-Pleistocene Transition from the Amundsen Sea, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konfirst, M. A.; Scherer, R. P.

2010-12-01

In 2001 an 18.49m core was collected aboard Polarstern (cruise ANT-XVIII/5a) from the upper continental rise offshore from Pine Island Bay in the Amundsen Sea (69°19’S, 108°27’W) at 4014 m water depth. This location is important because it is one of the three main discharge locations for the WAIS and it is expected that IRD from melting icebergs would be concentrated in this region. Hillenbrand et al. (2009) collected data on magnetic susceptibility, wet bulk density, water content, biogenic opal, Ba/Al ratios (as a proxy for paleoproductivity), clay mineral content, and sand/ gravel fractions. To complement this data set, a high-resolution record (sample spacing 10cm) of the siliceous microfossil assemblages (diatoms and silicoflagellates) present in the core has been generated. Data include both relative abundance of individual diatom species and genera and absolute diatom abundance. Species composition in the upper 1004 cm is dominated by Fragilariopsis kerguelensis, which consistently composes 80-90% of the assemblage. Below 1004 cm the assemblage is more diverse, with Actinocyclus ingens, Thalassiothrix antarctica and F. kerguelensis consistently comprising the bulk of the assemblage. Additionally, the occurrence of A. ingens, Thalassiosira elliptipora and T. fasciculata can be used to confirm and further refine the age model established by Hillenbrand et al. (2009). Absolute abundance of diatom frustules varies from samples completely barren fossils to those with concentrations >4 x 107 valves/ g sediment and follows the biogenic opal measurements of Hillenbrand et al. (2009). A clear relationship between diatom abundance and glacial/interglacial variability is apparent in the upper 1004 cm and has been documented in the geochemical measurements of Hillenbrand et al. (2009). Significantly lower absolute abundance is observed below ~1004 cm; however, intervals with samples barren of fossils continue to alternate with those containing low concentrations. Diatom abundance data and biostratigraphy are used in conjunction with paleomagnetic data (Hillenbrand et al. 2009) to extend the age model to the bottom of the core. The genera Rhizosolenia and Thalassionema appear in significant abundances (i.e. >10%) in samples where Miocene diatoms (genera: Triceratium and Denticulopsis) are observed and may therefore represent significant intervals of reworking. The age model indicates that these intervals correspond to isotope stages 12 and 16- the coldest glacial intervals in the past 1.2 myr. These genera also occur sporadically in an interval correlated to stages 21-25, and correspond to a particularly low amplitude interglacial period. This core represents a continuous record of sediment accumulation in the Amundsen Sea during the past 1.2 myr. A significant change in both sediment accumulation style and diatom assemblages is observed at 1004 cm. These are concurrent with the extinction of A. ingens and the end of the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (i.e. the onset of modern eccentricity/precession-paced glacial cycles ~700ka), and it is suggested that a major oceanographic reorganization occurred in the Southern Ocean during this time.

The Absolute Magnitude of the Sun in Several Filters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willmer, Christopher N. A.

2018-06-01

This paper presents a table with estimates of the absolute magnitude of the Sun and the conversions from vegamag to the AB and ST systems for several wide-band filters used in ground-based and space-based observatories. These estimates use the dustless spectral energy distribution (SED) of Vega, calibrated absolutely using the SED of Sirius, to set the vegamag zero-points and a composite spectrum of the Sun that coadds space-based observations from the ultraviolet to the near-infrared with models of the Solar atmosphere. The uncertainty of the absolute magnitudes is estimated by comparing the synthetic colors with photometric measurements of solar analogs and is found to be ∼0.02 mag. Combined with the uncertainty of ∼2% in the calibration of the Vega SED, the errors of these absolute magnitudes are ∼3%–4%. Using these SEDs, for three of the most utilized filters in extragalactic work the estimated absolute magnitudes of the Sun are M B = 5.44, M V = 4.81, and M K = 3.27 mag in the vegamag system and M B = 5.31, M V = 4.80, and M K = 5.08 mag in AB.

Preface (for CUP)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pap, Judit

1993-01-01

Study of changes in solar and stellar irradiances has been of high interest for a long time. Determining the absolute value of the luminosity of stars with different ages is a crucial question for the theory of stellar evolution and energy production in stellar interiors.

THE COMPARATIVE IMMUNOTOXICITY OF FIVE SELCTED COMPOUNDS FOLLOWING DEVELOPMENTAL OR ADULT EXPOSURE

EPA Science Inventory

It is well established that human diseases associated with abnormal immune function, including some common infectious diseases and asthma, are considerably more prevalent at younger ages. Although not established absolutely, it is generally believed that development constitutes ...

Boguslawsky crater, Moon: Geology of the Luna-Glob Landing Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hiesinger, Harald; Ivanov, Mikhail; Hendrik Paskert, Jan; Bauch, Karin; Howes van der Bogert, Carolyn

2014-05-01

The floor of crater Boguslawsky (~95 km in diameter, centered at 72.9S, 43.26E) was selected as the primary landing site for the Russian Luna-Glob mission. Two landing ellipses, 30x15 km each, were chosen on the floor of the crater: Ellipse West is at 72.9S, 41.3E; Ellipse East is at 73.3S, 43.9E. Using high-resolution LROC images, we identified six geologic units within Boguslawsky crater, including smooth plains sp, rolling plains rp, secondary craters sc, a hilly unit hu, the crater wall cw, and the ejecta blanket eb of the 24-km sized crater Boguslawsky D. Units sp, rp, sc, hu, and possibly cw are accessible within the western landing ellipse. The eastern landing ellipse contains units sp, rp, eb, and sc. Based on our crater size-frequency distribution (CSFD) measurements and using the lunar production function and chronology of [1], we find Boguslawsky crater formed approximately 4 Ga ago. Because this age was derived from a count area on the western crater wall, which might have been modified by mass wasting, it represents a minimum age, i.e., the crater might be older. Applying the stratigraphy of [2], Bouguslawsky is pre-Nectarian in age, consistent with the age assignment of the geologic map [3]. Our CSFD results indicate that the rolling plains have an absolute model age of about 3.96 Ga old, thus being indistinguishable within the error bars from the CSFD of the Boguslawsky wall. The smooth plains and the ejecta blanket of Boguslawsky D exhibit very similar absolute model ages of 3.77 and 3.74 Ga, respectively. Thus, our ages for the crater floor are somewhat younger than the ages in the geologic map of [3] while Boguslawsky D appears to be older, i.e., it is Imbrian in age and not Eratosthenian as shown in [3]. To assess the safety of the landing ellipses, we studied the distribution of slopes and boulders. Within the two proposed landing sites, we find that the slopes at ~30m base-length are generally less than 5-10 degrees. However, local slopes associated with small impact craters (mostly <500 m diameter) can be up to 45 degrees. Using LRO Diviner data, our thermal model [4] indicates several areas with higher thermal inertia and, thus, rock abundances. However, many of those areas likely can be attributed to temperature differences caused by insufficient topographic correction. However, we found several areas with high rock abundances that are clearly not affected by topography and are associated with the morphologically freshest craters. Manual boulder counts for those areas on LRO NAC images confirm a large number of boulders on the surface. For example, in an area of about 4 km2, we counted more than 16,000 boulders between ~0.5 m and up to 13 m in size around a small crater at the eastern edge of the western landing ellipse. References: [1] Neukum et al. (2001), Space Sci. Rev. 96; [2] Wilhelms (1987) USGS Prof. Paper 1348; [3] Wilhelms et al. (1979) USGS I-1162; [4] Bauch et al. (2014), Submitted to PSS.

External Validation of the Garvan Nomograms for Predicting Absolute Fracture Risk: The Tromsø Study

PubMed Central

Ahmed, Luai A.; Nguyen, Nguyen D.; Bjørnerem, Åshild; Joakimsen, Ragnar M.; Jørgensen, Lone; Størmer, Jan; Bliuc, Dana; Center, Jacqueline R.; Eisman, John A.; Nguyen, Tuan V.; Emaus, Nina

2014-01-01

Background Absolute risk estimation is a preferred approach for assessing fracture risk and treatment decision making. This study aimed to evaluate and validate the predictive performance of the Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator in a Norwegian cohort. Methods The analysis included 1637 women and 1355 aged 60+ years from the Tromsø study. All incident fragility fractures between 2001 and 2009 were registered. The predicted probabilities of non-vertebral osteoporotic and hip fractures were determined using models with and without BMD. The discrimination and calibration of the models were assessed. Reclassification analysis was used to compare the models performance. Results The incidence of osteoporotic and hip fracture was 31.5 and 8.6 per 1000 population in women, respectively; in men the corresponding incidence was 12.2 and 5.1. The predicted 5-year and 10-year probability of fractures was consistently higher in the fracture group than the non-fracture group for all models. The 10-year predicted probabilities of hip fracture in those with fracture was 2.8 (women) to 3.1 times (men) higher than those without fracture. There was a close agreement between predicted and observed risk in both sexes and up to the fifth quintile. Among those in the highest quintile of risk, the models over-estimated the risk of fracture. Models with BMD performed better than models with body weight in correct classification of risk in individuals with and without fracture. The overall net decrease in reclassification of the model with weight compared to the model with BMD was 10.6% (p = 0.008) in women and 17.2% (p = 0.001) in men for osteoporotic fractures, and 13.3% (p = 0.07) in women and 17.5% (p = 0.09) in men for hip fracture. Conclusions The Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator is valid and clinically useful in identifying individuals at high risk of fracture. The models with BMD performed better than those with body weight in fracture risk prediction. PMID:25255221

Accuracy assessment of the global TanDEM-X Digital Elevation Model with GPS data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wessel, Birgit; Huber, Martin; Wohlfart, Christian; Marschalk, Ursula; Kosmann, Detlev; Roth, Achim

2018-05-01

The primary goal of the German TanDEM-X mission is the generation of a highly accurate and global Digital Elevation Model (DEM) with global accuracies of at least 10 m absolute height error (linear 90% error). The global TanDEM-X DEM acquired with single-pass SAR interferometry was finished in September 2016. This paper provides a unique accuracy assessment of the final TanDEM-X global DEM using two different GPS point reference data sets, which are distributed across all continents, to fully characterize the absolute height error. Firstly, the absolute vertical accuracy is examined by about three million globally distributed kinematic GPS (KGPS) points derived from 19 KGPS tracks covering a total length of about 66,000 km. Secondly, a comparison is performed with more than 23,000 "GPS on Bench Marks" (GPS-on-BM) points provided by the US National Geodetic Survey (NGS) scattered across 14 different land cover types of the US National Land Cover Data base (NLCD). Both GPS comparisons prove an absolute vertical mean error of TanDEM-X DEM smaller than ±0.20 m, a Root Means Square Error (RMSE) smaller than 1.4 m and an excellent absolute 90% linear height error below 2 m. The RMSE values are sensitive to land cover types. For low vegetation the RMSE is ±1.1 m, whereas it is slightly higher for developed areas (±1.4 m) and for forests (±1.8 m). This validation confirms an outstanding absolute height error at 90% confidence level of the global TanDEM-X DEM outperforming the requirement by a factor of five. Due to its extensive and globally distributed reference data sets, this study is of considerable interests for scientific and commercial applications.

The creation and evaluation of a model to simulate the probability of conception in seasonal-calving pasture-based dairy heifers.

PubMed

Fenlon, Caroline; O'Grady, Luke; Butler, Stephen; Doherty, Michael L; Dunnion, John

2017-01-01

Herd fertility in pasture-based dairy farms is a key driver of farm economics. Models for predicting nulliparous reproductive outcomes are rare, but age, genetics, weight, and BCS have been identified as factors influencing heifer conception. The aim of this study was to create a simulation model of heifer conception to service with thorough evaluation. Artificial Insemination service records from two research herds and ten commercial herds were provided to build and evaluate the models. All were managed as spring-calving pasture-based systems. The factors studied were related to age, genetics, and time of service. The data were split into training and testing sets and bootstrapping was used to train the models. Logistic regression (with and without random effects) and generalised additive modelling were selected as the model-building techniques. Two types of evaluation were used to test the predictive ability of the models: discrimination and calibration. Discrimination, which includes sensitivity, specificity, accuracy and ROC analysis, measures a model's ability to distinguish between positive and negative outcomes. Calibration measures the accuracy of the predicted probabilities with the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit, calibration plot and calibration error. After data cleaning and the removal of services with missing values, 1396 services remained to train the models and 597 were left for testing. Age, breed, genetic predicted transmitting ability for calving interval, month and year were significant in the multivariate models. The regression models also included an interaction between age and month. Year within herd was a random effect in the mixed regression model. Overall prediction accuracy was between 77.1% and 78.9%. All three models had very high sensitivity, but low specificity. The two regression models were very well-calibrated. The mean absolute calibration errors were all below 4%. Because the models were not adept at identifying unsuccessful services, they are not suggested for use in predicting the outcome of individual heifer services. Instead, they are useful for the comparison of services with different covariate values or as sub-models in whole-farm simulations. The mixed regression model was identified as the best model for prediction, as the random effects can be ignored and the other variables can be easily obtained or simulated.

[Time and temporality in gerontology and the ontologic privation theory of biological aging].

PubMed

Kment, A

1989-01-01

We have seen how our conception of time has changed in the course of the years. Up to the beginning of this century people believed in absolute time. According to today's views, time and temporality do not consist of a continuous flow of time successions, as generally assumed, the essence lies in the inner character of events. Therefore, in order to comprehend the true nature of time and temporality in gerontology, we must pay particular attention to the constitutional structures of events or happenings. Here we must comprehend the implication of an ontological change and the constitutions of time as metaphysical structure. Time and temporality are measured in happenings and processes, and not vice versa. Whitehead, showed that we are concerned with an ontological interpretation of time and temporality. The biodynamics of an individual reveal the largely autonomous structure and bionomy of the processes of life, as well as the continuous interaction and shifts of the biological cycles of formation, change, and decline. The ontological privation of biological aging and death are just as much a part of life as conception and birth. Only what lives can mature, age, and die. The imminent "purpose" of the biological aging of the individual is dying and death, i.e., the return home into "absolute being".

The combined effect of dismantling for steam sterilization and aging on the accuracy of spring-style mechanical torque devices

PubMed Central

Mahshid, Minoo; Sadr, Seyed Jalil; Fayyaz, Ali; Kadkhodazadeh, Mahdi

2013-01-01

Purpose This study aimed to assess the combined effect of dismantling before sterilization and aging on the accuracy (±10% of the target torque) of spring-style mechanical torque devices (S-S MTDs). Methods Twenty new S-SMTDs from two different manufacturers (Nobel Biocare and Straumann: 10 of each type) were selected and divided into two groups, namely, case (group A) and control (group B). For sterilization, 100 cycles of autoclaving were performed in 100 sequences. In each sequence, 10 repetitions of peak torque values were registered for aging. To measure and assess the output of each device, a Tohnichi torque gauge was used (P<0.05). Results Before steam sterilization, all of the tested devices stayed within 10% of their target values. After 100 cycles of steam sterilization and aging with or without dismantling of the devices, the Nobel Biocare devices stayed within 10% of their target torque. In the Straumann devices, despite the significant difference between the peak torque and target torque values, the absolute error values stayed within 10% of their target torque. Conclusion Within the limitations of this study, there was no significant difference between the mean and absolute value of error between Nobel Biocare and Straumann S-S MTDs. PMID:24236244

The Estimation of Gestational Age at Birth in Database Studies.

PubMed

Eberg, Maria; Platt, Robert W; Filion, Kristian B

2017-11-01

Studies on the safety of prenatal medication use require valid estimation of the pregnancy duration. However, gestational age is often incompletely recorded in administrative and clinical databases. Our objective was to compare different approaches to estimating the pregnancy duration. Using data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink and Hospital Episode Statistics, we examined the following four approaches to estimating missing gestational age: (1) generalized estimating equations for longitudinal data; (2) multiple imputation; (3) estimation based on fetal birth weight and sex; and (4) conventional approaches that assigned a fixed value (39 weeks for all or 39 weeks for full term and 35 weeks for preterm). The gestational age recorded in Hospital Episode Statistics was considered the gold standard. We conducted a simulation study comparing the described approaches in terms of estimated bias and mean square error. A total of 25,929 infants from 22,774 mothers were included in our "gold standard" cohort. The smallest average absolute bias was observed for the generalized estimating equation that included birth weight, while the largest absolute bias occurred when assigning 39-week gestation to all those with missing values. The smallest mean square errors were detected with generalized estimating equations while multiple imputation had the highest mean square errors. The use of generalized estimating equations resulted in the most accurate estimation of missing gestational age when birth weight information was available. In the absence of birth weight, assignment of fixed gestational age based on term/preterm status may be the optimal approach.

Effect of nano-titanium dioxide on mechanical and electrical properties and microstructure of reactive powder concrete

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhen; Han, Baoguo; Yu, Xun; Dong, Sufen; Zhang, Liqing; Dong, Xufeng; Ou, Jinping

2017-09-01

Nano-titanium dioxide (NT) was introduced into reactive powder concrete (RPC) to prepare NT reinforced RPC (NTRRPC) in this study. The mechanical and electrical properties and microstructure of NTRRPC were investigated. Research results indicate that NT can accelerate the hydration of RPC at early ages due to its nucleation effect. Cement hydration degree is free from the inclusion of NT at the curing age of 28 d. However, x-ray powder diffraction (XRD) analysis and scanning electron microscope (SEM) observation confirm that the nucleation effect of NT not only can reduce the orientation degree of calcium hydroxide (CH), but also can restrict the size of CH. Hence, NT may also benefit to enhance the strength at late age. The flexural and compressive strengths of NTRRPC at age of 28 d achieve increases of 47.07% (relative increase rate)/3.62 MPa (the absolute increase) and 18.05%/18.42 MPa with respect to the control RPC, respectively. The compactedness model demonstrates that NT can improve the compactedness of RPC and reduce the porosity of RPC from 9.04% to 6.96%. SEM observations suggest that the NT can refine the pores and micro cracks of the RPC by its filling effect, which is in accordance with the result of compactedness model. In addition, the addition of NT can improve the electrically conductivity property of RPC and make a 13.61% decrease in the electrical resistivity of RPC.

Absolute total and partial dissociative cross sections of pyrimidine at electron and proton intermediate impact velocities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wolff, Wania, E-mail: wania@if.ufrj.br; Luna, Hugo; Sigaud, Lucas

Absolute total non-dissociative and partial dissociative cross sections of pyrimidine were measured for electron impact energies ranging from 70 to 400 eV and for proton impact energies from 125 up to 2500 keV. MOs ionization induced by coulomb interaction were studied by measuring both ionization and partial dissociative cross sections through time of flight mass spectrometry and by obtaining the branching ratios for fragment formation via a model calculation based on the Born approximation. The partial yields and the absolute cross sections measured as a function of the energy combined with the model calculation proved to be a useful toolmore » to determine the vacancy population of the valence MOs from which several sets of fragment ions are produced. It was also a key point to distinguish the dissociation regimes induced by both particles. A comparison with previous experimental results is also presented.« less

Absolutely nondestructive discrimination of Huoshan Dendrobium nobile species with miniature near-infrared (NIR) spectrometer engine.

PubMed

Hu, Tian; Yang, Hai-Long; Tang, Qing; Zhang, Hui; Nie, Lei; Li, Lian; Wang, Jin-Feng; Liu, Dong-Ming; Jiang, Wei; Wang, Fei; Zang, Heng-Chang

2014-10-01

As one very precious traditional Chinese medicine (TCM), Huoshan Dendrobium has not only high price, but also significant pharmaceutical efficacy. However, different species of Huoshan Dendrobium exhibit considerable difference in pharmaceutical efficacy, so rapid and absolutely non-destructive discrimination of Huoshan Dendrobium nobile according to different species is crucial to quality control and pharmaceutical effect. In this study, as one type of miniature near-infrared (NIR) spectrometer, MicroNIR 1700 was used for absolutely nondestructive determination of NIR spectra of 90 batches of Dendrobium from five species of differ- ent commodity grades. The samples were intact and not smashed. Soft independent modeling of class analogy (SIMCA) pattern recognition based on principal component analysis (PCA) was used to classify and recognize different species of Dendrobium samples. The results indicated that the SIMCA qualitative models established with pretreatment method of standard normal variate transformation (SNV) in the spectra range selected by Qs method had 100% recognition rates and 100% rejection rates. This study demonstrated that a rapid and absolutely non-destructive analytical technique based on MicroNIR 1700 spectrometer was developed for successful discrimination of five different species of Huoshan Dendrobium with acceptable accuracy.

Temporal dynamics of sand dune bidirectional reflectance characteristics for absolute radiometric calibration of optical remote sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coburn, Craig A.; Logie, Gordon S. J.

2018-01-01

Attempts to use pseudoinvariant calibration sites (PICS) for establishing absolute radiometric calibration of Earth observation (EO) satellites requires high-quality information about the nature of the bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) of the surfaces used for these calibrations. Past studies have shown that the PICS method is useful for evaluating the trend of sensors over time or for the intercalibration of sensors. The PICS method was not considered until recently for deriving absolute radiometric calibration. This paper presents BRDF data collected by a high-performance portable goniometer system to develop a temporal BRDF model for the Algodones Dunes in California. By sampling the BRDF of the sand surface at similar solar zenith angles to those normally encountered by EO satellites, additional information on the changing nature of the surface can improve models used to provide absolute radiometric correction. The results demonstrated that the BRDF of a reasonably simple sand surface was complex with changes in anisotropy taking place in response to changing solar zenith angles. For the majority of observation and illumination angles, the spectral reflectance anisotropy observed varied between 1% and 5% in patterns that repeat around solar noon.

Spectral Irradiance Calibration in the Infrared. Part 6; 3-35 microns Spectra of Three Southern Standard Stars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cohen, Martin; Witteborn, Fred C.; Bregman, Jesse D.; Wooden, Diane H.; Salama, Alberto; Metcalfe, Leo

1996-01-01

We present three new absolutely calibrated continuous stellar spectra from 3 to 35 microns, constructed as far as possible from actual observed spectral fragments taken from the Kuiper Airborne Observatory (KAO), and the IRAS Low Resolution Spectrometer (LRS). These stars- alpha(sup 1) Cen, alpha TrA, and epsilon Car-augment our previous archive of complete absolutely calibrated spectra for northern K and M giants. All these spectra have a common calibration pedigree. The wavelength coverage is ideal for calibration of many existing and proposed ground-based, airborne, and satellite sensors. KAO and IRAS data in the 15-30 micron range suggest that the spectra of cool giants are close to Rayleigh-Jeans slopes. Our observations of alpha(sup 1) Cen, absolutely calibrated via our adopted Sirius model, indicate an angular diameter in very good agreement with values in the literature, demonstrating 'closure' of the set of spectra within our absolute framework. We compare our observed alpha(sup 1) Cen spectrum with a published grid of theoretical models from Kurucz, and adopt a plausible theoretical shape, that fits our spectrum, as a secondary reference spectrum in the southern sky.

Relationship between LIBS Ablation and Pit Volume for Geologic Samples: Applications for in situ Absolute Geochronology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Devismes, D.; Cohen, Barbara A.

2014-01-01

In planetary sciences, in situ absolute geochronology is a scientific and engineering challenge. Currently, the age of the Martian surface can only be determined by crater density counting. However this method has significant uncertainties and needs to be calibrated with absolute ages. We are developing an instrument to acquire in situ absolute geochronology based on the K-Ar method. The protocol is based on the laser ablation of a rock by hundreds of laser pulses. Laser Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS) gives the potassium content of the ablated material and a mass spectrometer (quadrupole or ion trap) measures the quantity of 40Ar released. In order to accurately measure the quantity of released 40Ar in cases where Ar is an atmospheric constituent (e.g., Mars), the sample is first put into a chamber under high vacuum. The 40Arquantity, the concentration of K and the estimation of the ablated mass are the parameters needed to give the age of the rocks. The main uncertainties with this method are directly linked to the measures of the mass (typically some µg) and of the concentration of K by LIBS (up to 10%). Because the ablated mass is small compared to the mass of the sample, and because material is redeposited onto the sample after ablation, it is not possible to directly measure the ablated mass. Our current protocol measures the ablated volume and estimates the sample density to calculate ablated mass. The precision and accuracy of this method may be improved by using knowledge of the sample's geologic properties to predict its response to laser ablation, i.e., understanding whether natural samples have a predictable relationship between laser energy deposited and resultant ablation volume. In contrast to most previous studies of laser ablation, theoretical equations are not highly applicable. The reasons are numerous, but the most important are: a) geologic rocks are complex, polymineralic materials; b) the conditions of ablation are unusual (for example, variable vacuum pressure), and c) the ablation is made with hundreds of successive laser pulses. In this work, we aim to understand the effects that occur on LIBS spectra when a homogeneous rock or a mineral is ablated under high vacuum. Understanding these effects is important to define best practices for LIBS measurements and may lead to improved measurement (or possibly prediction) of the ablated volume. We will describe our laboratory approach and first results, and discuss its utility for situ absolute geochronology campaigns.

Epidemiology of extremity fractures in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Beerekamp, M S H; de Muinck Keizer, R J O; Schep, N W L; Ubbink, D T; Panneman, M J M; Goslings, J C

2017-07-01

Insight in epidemiologic data of extremity fractures is relevant to identify people at risk. By analyzing age- and gender specific fracture incidence and treatment patterns we may adjust future policy, take preventive measures and optimize health care management. Current epidemiologic data on extremity fractures and their treatment are scarce, outdated or aiming at a small spectrum of fractures. The aim of this study was to assess trends in incidence and treatment of extremity fractures between 2004 and 2012 in relation to gender and age. We used a combination of national registries of patients aged ≥ 16 years with extremity fractures. Fractures were coded by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD) 10, and allocated to an anatomic region. ICD-10 codes were used for combining the data of the registries. Absolute numbers, incidences, number of patients treated in university hospitals and surgically treated patients were reported. A binary logistic regression was used to calculate trends during the study period. From 2004 to 2012 the Dutch population aged ≥16 years grew from 13,047,018 to 13,639,412 inhabitants, particularly in the higher age groups of 46 years and older. The absolute number of extremity fractures increased significantly from 129,188 to 176,129 (OR 1.308 [1.299-1.318]), except for forearm and lower leg fractures. Incidences increased significantly (3-4%) for wrist, hand/finger, hip/upper leg, ankle and foot/toe fractures. In contrast to the older age categories from 66 years and older, in younger age categories from 16 to 35 years, fractures of the extremities were more frequent in men than in women. Treatments gradually moved towards non-university hospitals for all except forearm fractures. Both relative and absolute numbers increased for surgical treatments of clavicle/shoulder, forearm, wrist and hand/finger fractures. Contrarily, lower extremity fractures showed an increase in non-surgical treatment, except for lower leg fractures. During the study period, we observed an increasing incidence of extremity fractures and a shift towards surgical treatment. Patient numbers in university hospitals declined. If these trends continue, policy makers would be well advised to consider the changing demands in extremity fracture treatment and pro-actively increase capacity and resources. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

DNA methylation-based forensic age prediction using artificial neural networks and next generation sequencing.

PubMed

Vidaki, Athina; Ballard, David; Aliferi, Anastasia; Miller, Thomas H; Barron, Leon P; Syndercombe Court, Denise

2017-05-01

The ability to estimate the age of the donor from recovered biological material at a crime scene can be of substantial value in forensic investigations. Aging can be complex and is associated with various molecular modifications in cells that accumulate over a person's lifetime including epigenetic patterns. The aim of this study was to use age-specific DNA methylation patterns to generate an accurate model for the prediction of chronological age using data from whole blood. In total, 45 age-associated CpG sites were selected based on their reported age coefficients in a previous extensive study and investigated using publicly available methylation data obtained from 1156 whole blood samples (aged 2-90 years) analysed with Illumina's genome-wide methylation platforms (27K/450K). Applying stepwise regression for variable selection, 23 of these CpG sites were identified that could significantly contribute to age prediction modelling and multiple regression analysis carried out with these markers provided an accurate prediction of age (R 2 =0.92, mean absolute error (MAE)=4.6 years). However, applying machine learning, and more specifically a generalised regression neural network model, the age prediction significantly improved (R 2 =0.96) with a MAE=3.3 years for the training set and 4.4 years for a blind test set of 231 cases. The machine learning approach used 16 CpG sites, located in 16 different genomic regions, with the top 3 predictors of age belonged to the genes NHLRC1, SCGN and CSNK1D. The proposed model was further tested using independent cohorts of 53 monozygotic twins (MAE=7.1 years) and a cohort of 1011 disease state individuals (MAE=7.2 years). Furthermore, we highlighted the age markers' potential applicability in samples other than blood by predicting age with similar accuracy in 265 saliva samples (R 2 =0.96) with a MAE=3.2 years (training set) and 4.0 years (blind test). In an attempt to create a sensitive and accurate age prediction test, a next generation sequencing (NGS)-based method able to quantify the methylation status of the selected 16 CpG sites was developed using the Illumina MiSeq ® platform. The method was validated using DNA standards of known methylation levels and the age prediction accuracy has been initially assessed in a set of 46 whole blood samples. Although the resulted prediction accuracy using the NGS data was lower compared to the original model (MAE=7.5years), it is expected that future optimization of our strategy to account for technical variation as well as increasing the sample size will improve both the prediction accuracy and reproducibility. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.