Science.gov

Sample records for absolute population size

  1. Preschoolers' Success at Coding Absolute Size Values.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Russell, James

    1980-01-01

    Forty-five 2-year-old and forty-five 3-year-old children coded relative and absolute sizes using 1.5-inch, 6-inch, and 18-inch cardboard squares. Results indicate that absolute coding is possible for children of this age. (Author/RH)

  2. Introducing the Mean Absolute Deviation "Effect" Size

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gorard, Stephen

    2015-01-01

    This paper revisits the use of effect sizes in the analysis of experimental and similar results, and reminds readers of the relative advantages of the mean absolute deviation as a measure of variation, as opposed to the more complex standard deviation. The mean absolute deviation is easier to use and understand, and more tolerant of extreme…

  3. Overspecification of color, pattern, and size: salience, absoluteness, and consistency

    PubMed Central

    Tarenskeen, Sammie; Broersma, Mirjam; Geurts, Bart

    2015-01-01

    The rates of overspecification of color, pattern, and size are compared, to investigate how salience and absoluteness contribute to the production of overspecification. Color and pattern are absolute and salient attributes, whereas size is relative and less salient. Additionally, a tendency toward consistent responses is assessed. Using a within-participants design, we find similar rates of color and pattern overspecification, which are both higher than the rate of size overspecification. Using a between-participants design, however, we find similar rates of pattern and size overspecification, which are both lower than the rate of color overspecification. This indicates that although many speakers are more likely to include color than pattern (probably because color is more salient), they may also treat pattern like color due to a tendency toward consistency. We find no increase in size overspecification when the salience of size is increased, suggesting that speakers are more likely to include absolute than relative attributes. However, we do find an increase in size overspecification when mentioning the attributes is triggered, which again shows that speakers tend to refer in a consistent manner, and that there are circumstances in which even size overspecification is frequently produced. PMID:26594190

  4. Size-dependent absolute quantum yields for size-separated colloidally-stable silicon nanocrystals.

    PubMed

    Mastronardi, Melanie L; Maier-Flaig, Florian; Faulkner, Daniel; Henderson, Eric J; Kübel, Christian; Lemmer, Uli; Ozin, Geoffrey A

    2012-01-11

    Size-selective precipitation was used to successfully separate colloidally stable allylbenzene-capped silicon nanocrystals into several visible emitting monodisperse fractions traversing the quantum size effect range of 1-5 nm. This enabled the measurement of the absolute quantum yield and lifetime of photoluminescence of allylbenzene-capped silicon nanocrystals as a function of size. The absolute quantum yield and lifetime are found to monotonically decrease with decreasing nanocrystal size, which implies that nonradiative vibrational and surface defect effects overwhelm spatial confinement effects that favor radiative relaxation. Visible emission absolute quantum yields as high as 43% speak well for the development of "green" silicon nanocrystal color-tunable light emitting diodes that can potentially match the performance of their toxic heavy metal chalcogenide counterparts.

  5. Effective sizes for subdivided populations

    SciTech Connect

    Chesser, R.K. Univ. of Georgia, Athens, GA ); Rhodes, O.E. Jr.; Sugg, D.W.; Schnabel, A. )

    1993-12-01

    Many derivations of effective population sizes have been suggested in the literature; however, few account for the breeding structure and none can readily be expanded to subdivided populations. Breeding structures influence gene correlations through their effects on the number of breeding individuals of each sex, the mean number of progeny per female, and the variance in the number of progeny produced by males and females. Additionally, hierarchical structuring in a population is determined by the number of breeding groups and the migration rates of males and females among such groups. This study derives analytical solutions for effective sizes that can be applied to subdivided populations. Parameters that encapsulate breeding structure and subdivision are utilized to derive the traditional inbreeding and variance effective sizes. Also, it is shown that effective sizes can be determined for any hierarchical level of population structure for which gene correlations can accrue. Derivations of effective sizes for the accumulation of gene correlations within breeding groups (coancestral effective size) and among breeding groups (intergroup effective size) are given. The results converge to traditional single population measures when similar assumptions are applied. In particular, inbreeding and intergroup effective sizes are shown to be special cases of the coancestral effective size, and intergroup and variance effective sizes will be equal if the population census remains constant. Instantaneous solutions for effective size, at any time after gene correlation begins to accrue, are given in terms of traditional F statistics or transition equations. All effective sizes are shown to converge upon a common asymptotic value when breeding tactics and migration rates are constant. The asymptotic effective size can be expressed in terms of the fixation indices and the number of breeding groups; however, the rate of approach to the asymptote is dependent upon dispersal rates.

  6. Silicon nanofilter with absolute pore size and high mechanical strength

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chu, Wen Hwa; Ferrari, Mauro

    1995-12-01

    Microfabricated silicon filters with a nominal pore size of 20 nm have been successfully fabricated and characterized. The filter consists of a filtration membrane on top of a silicon surface and a mechanical support on the silicon substrate. Two polysilicon layers together with a low temperature oxide layer are used to generate the filtration membrane on the front side of silicon wafers. The filtration function is accomplished by the flow channel generated from a sandwiched thin silicon dioxide layer. The thickness of the sandwiched oxide determines the particle size that can pass through the filter. Both distilled water and cell culture medium have been used to test the flow rate for this nanofilter. We have found that the flow rate of the nanofilter is highest at the beginning of the test, and then slowly decreases to its asymptotic values for both water and the cell culture medium. The observed flow rate is linearly proportional to the applied pressure in the ranges tested. The typical flow rate of distilled water for 20 nm filter with 1.19 cm2 effective filtration area is about 0.07 ml/min for applied pressure of 8 PSI. The filter successfully sustained pressure of up to 20 PSI.

  7. Effective population size and population subdivision in demographically structured populations.

    PubMed Central

    Laporte, Valérie; Charlesworth, Brian

    2002-01-01

    A fast-timescale approximation is applied to the coalescent process in a single population, which is demographically structured by sex and/or age. This provides a general expression for the probability that a pair of alleles sampled from the population coalesce in the previous time interval. The effective population size is defined as the reciprocal of twice the product of generation time and the coalescence probability. Biologically explicit formulas for effective population size with discrete generations and separate sexes are derived for a variety of different modes of inheritance. The method is also applied to a nuclear gene in a population of partially self-fertilizing hermaphrodites. The effects of population subdivision on a demographically structured population are analyzed, using a matrix of net rates of movement of genes between different local populations. This involves weighting the migration probabilities of individuals of a given age/sex class by the contribution of this class to the leading left eigenvector of the matrix describing the movements of genes between age/sex classes. The effects of sex-specific migration and nonrandom distributions of offspring number on levels of genetic variability and among-population differentiation are described for different modes of inheritance in an island model. Data on DNA sequence variability in human and plant populations are discussed in the light of the results. PMID:12242257

  8. Simultaneous absolute determination of particle size and effective density of submicron colloids by disc centrifuge photosedimentometry.

    PubMed

    Kamiti, Mungai; Boldridge, David; Ndoping, Linda M; Remsen, Edward E

    2012-12-18

    Disc centrifuge photosedimentometry (DCP) with fluids of different densities is used to simultaneously determine the particle size and effective density of spherical silica particles. Incorporation of a calibrated infrared pyrometer into a DCP instrument is shown to enhance the measurement capability of the DCP technique by correcting for the temperature dependence of the spin fluid's density and viscosity. Advantages of absolute DCP determinations for size and density analysis relative to standardized DCP measurements include the elimination of instrument standardization with a particle of known density and measurements or estimation of the effective particle density. The reliability of diameter determinations provided by absolute DCP was confirmed using silica particles with nominal diameters ranging from 250 to 700 nm by comparison of these analyses with a diameter determination by transmission electron microscopy for silica particle size standards. Effective densities determined by absolute DCP for the silica particles ranged from 2.02 to 2.34 g/cm(3). These findings indicate that the silica particles have little or no porosity. The reported characterization of colloidal silica using absolute DCP suggests applicability of the technique to a variety of particle types including colloidal materials other than silica, core-shell particles, compositionally heterogeneous mixtures of nanoparticles, and irregularly shaped, structured colloids. PMID:23157599

  9. Absolute size and proportionality characteristics of World Championship female basketball players.

    PubMed

    Ackland, T R; Schreiner, A B; Kerr, D A

    1997-10-01

    In total, 168 players from 14 national teams were measured using 38 anthropometric dimensions before the Women's World Basketball Championships held in Australia in 1994. Measures of segment length, breadth and girth were recorded by a team of trained anthropometrists using standard protocols. The subjects were divided according to playing position and team performance so that univariate analyses of variance could be administered using absolute size and proportionality data as dependent variables. Clear differences in absolute size were found between guards, forwards and centres, but in terms of proportionality the latter two groups exhibited some similarities, particularly for measures of relative size in upper body dimensions. With guards displaying a different proportionality profile from either forwards or centres, the various roles of each position within the team were considered to rationalize the findings.

  10. Bayesian Nonparametric Inference of Population Size Changes from Sequential Genealogies.

    PubMed

    Palacios, Julia A; Wakeley, John; Ramachandran, Sohini

    2015-09-01

    Sophisticated inferential tools coupled with the coalescent model have recently emerged for estimating past population sizes from genomic data. Recent methods that model recombination require small sample sizes, make constraining assumptions about population size changes, and do not report measures of uncertainty for estimates. Here, we develop a Gaussian process-based Bayesian nonparametric method coupled with a sequentially Markov coalescent model that allows accurate inference of population sizes over time from a set of genealogies. In contrast to current methods, our approach considers a broad class of recombination events, including those that do not change local genealogies. We show that our method outperforms recent likelihood-based methods that rely on discretization of the parameter space. We illustrate the application of our method to multiple demographic histories, including population bottlenecks and exponential growth. In simulation, our Bayesian approach produces point estimates four times more accurate than maximum-likelihood estimation (based on the sum of absolute differences between the truth and the estimated values). Further, our method's credible intervals for population size as a function of time cover 90% of true values across multiple demographic scenarios, enabling formal hypothesis testing about population size differences over time. Using genealogies estimated with ARGweaver, we apply our method to European and Yoruban samples from the 1000 Genomes Project and confirm key known aspects of population size history over the past 150,000 years. PMID:26224734

  11. Population size, distribution and growth in Iran.

    PubMed

    Kamiar, M

    1985-01-01

    The author examines population size, distribution, and growth in Iran using data for 1966, 1976 census data, and some historical data for the nineteenth century. "This paper discusses changes in the size of population through time, population distribution, and regional patterns of population growth of the 23 provinces. It has been argued in this paper that because of a large family size norm as a religious duty to increase the numbers of the Islamic faith, early age at marriage, especially among females, common practice of polygamy, and the war with Iraq, population will grow even faster. It is concluded that population policy must be integrated into the national development plans."

  12. Spatiotemporal relationship between adult census size and genetic population size across a wide population size gradient.

    PubMed

    Bernos, Thaїs A; Fraser, Dylan J

    2016-09-01

    Adult census population size (N) and effective number of breeders (Nb ) are highly relevant for designing effective conservation strategies. Both parameters are often challenging to quantify, however, making it of interest to determine whether one parameter can be generalized from the other. Yet, the spatiotemporal relationship between N and Nb has not been well characterized empirically in many taxa. We analysed this relationship for 5-7 consecutive years in twelve brook trout populations varying greatly in N (49-10032) and Nb (3-567) and identified major environmental variables affecting the two parameters. N or habitat size alone explained 47-57% of the variance in Nb , and Nb was strongly correlated with effective population size. The ratio Nb /N ranged from 0.01 to 0.45 and increased at small N or following an annual decrease in N, suggesting density-dependent constraints on Nb . We found no evidence for a consistent, directional difference between variability in Nb and/or Nb /N among small and large populations; however, small populations had more varying temporal variability in Nb /N ratios than large populations. Finally, Nb and Nb /N were 2.5- and 2.3-fold more variable among populations than temporally within populations. Our results demonstrate a clear linkage between demographic and evolutionary parameters, suggesting that Nb could be used to approximate N (or vice versa) in natural populations. Nevertheless, using one variable to infer the other to monitor trends within populations is less recommended, perhaps even less so in small populations given their less predictable Nb vs. N dynamics. PMID:27483203

  13. Population size and genome size in fishes: a closer look.

    PubMed

    Gregory, T Ryan; Witt, Jonathan D S

    2008-04-01

    The several thousand-fold range in genome size among animals has remained a subject of active research and debate for more than half a century, but no satisfactory explanation has yet been provided. Many one-dimensional models have been postulated, but so far none has been successful in accounting for observed patterns in genome size diversity. The recent model based on differences in effective population size appeared to gain empirical support with a study of genome size and inferred effective population size in fishes, but there were several questionable aspects of the analysis. First, it was based on an assumption that microsatellite heterozygosity indicates long-term effective population size, whereas in actuality these markers evolve quickly and are sensitive to demographic events. Second, it included both ancient polyploids and non-polyploids, the former of which did not gain their current genome sizes through the accumulation of slightly deleterious mutations as required in the model. Third, the analysis neglected the tremendous influence that Pleistocene glaciation bottlenecks had on heterozygosities in freshwater (and far less so, marine) fishes. In sum, it is apparent that genomes reached their current sizes in most fishes long before contemporary microsatellite heterozygosities were shaped, and that ancient polyploidy rather than the accumulation of mildly deleterious transposon insertions in small populations is the dominant factor that has influenced the large end of the range of genome sizes among fishes.

  14. Effective Population Sizes with Multiple Paternity

    PubMed Central

    Sugg, D. W.; Chesser, R. K.

    1994-01-01

    While the concept of effective population size is of obvious applicability to many questions in population genetics and conservation biology, its utility has suffered due to a lack of agreement among its various formulations. Often, mathematical formulations for effective sizes apply restrictive assumptions that limit their applicability. Herein, expressions for effective sizes of populations that account for mating tactics, biases in sex ratios, and differential dispersal rates (among other parameters) are developed. Of primary interest is the influence of multiple paternity on the maintenance of genetic variation in a population. In addition to the standard inbreeding and variance effective sizes, intragroup (coancestral) and intergroup effective sizes also are developed. Expressions for effective sizes are developed for the beginning of nonrandom gene exchanges (initial effective sizes), the transition of gene correlations (instantaneous effective sizes), and the steady-state (asymptotic effective size). Results indicate that systems of mating that incorporate more than one male mate per female increase all effective sizes above those expected from polygyny and monogamy. Instantaneous and asymptotic sizes can be expressed relative to the fixation indices. The parameters presented herein can be utilized in models of effective sizes for the study of evolutionary biology and conservation genetics. PMID:7982568

  15. Strongmen sport is associated with larger absolute heart size and impaired cardiac relaxation.

    PubMed

    Venckunas, Tomas; Vasiliauskas, Donatas; Marcinkeviciene, Jolanta E; Grizas, Vytautas; Stasiulis, Arvydas; Malkova, Dalia

    2011-10-01

    This study was carried out to compare cardiac structure and function and blood lipids among Strongmen, sedentary controls, and marathoners. Echocardiography was performed, and endothelial function, blood lipids and maximal oxygen uptake were measured in 27 Caucasian adult men (8 Strongmen, 10 marathoners, 9 controls). Absolute cardiac size parameters such as left ventricular (LV) diameter and wall thickness of Strongmen were higher (p < 0.05), but relative (body surface area indexed) parameters were not different between controls and Strongmen. In Strongmen, the relative LV diameter (p < 0.05), wall thickness (p < 0.001), and LV mass index (p < 0.01) were lower than in marathoners. The absolute but not relative right ventricular diameter was larger in Strongmen as compared with controls, whereas all of the measured relative cardiac size parameters were higher in marathoners as opposed to in controls. The endothelial function and the ratio of wall thickness to chamber diameter were similar among the groups (p > 0.05). Maximal oxygen uptake of Strongmen was lower than in controls (p < 0.05) and marathoners (p < 0.001). Global diastolic LV function of Strongmen was impaired in comparison to controls (p < 0.05) and marathoners (p < 0.05). Plasma lipids were not different between Strongmen and sedentary controls, but in comparison to runners, Strongmen had higher low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (p < 0.05) and lower high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (p < 0.01). Participation in Strongmen sport is associated with higher absolute but not relative cardiac size parameters, impaired myocardial relaxation, and low cardiorespiratory fitness. Therefore, Strongmen may demand greater attention as an extreme group of athletes with regard to cardiovascular risk.

  16. Determining the Population Size of Pond Phytoplankton.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hummer, Paul J.

    1980-01-01

    Discusses methods for determining the population size of pond phytoplankton, including water sampling techniques, laboratory analysis of samples, and additional studies worthy of investigation in class or as individual projects. (CS)

  17. Detecting past changes of effective population size.

    PubMed

    Nikolic, Natacha; Chevalet, Claude

    2014-06-01

    Understanding and predicting population abundance is a major challenge confronting scientists. Several genetic models have been developed using microsatellite markers to estimate the present and ancestral effective population sizes. However, to get an overview on the evolution of population requires that past fluctuation of population size be traceable. To address the question, we developed a new model estimating the past changes of effective population size from microsatellite by resolving coalescence theory and using approximate likelihoods in a Monte Carlo Markov Chain approach. The efficiency of the model and its sensitivity to gene flow and to assumptions on the mutational process were checked using simulated data and analysis. The model was found especially useful to provide evidence of transient changes of population size in the past. The times at which some past demographic events cannot be detected because they are too ancient and the risk that gene flow may suggest the false detection of a bottleneck are discussed considering the distribution of coalescence times. The method was applied on real data sets from several Atlantic salmon populations. The method called VarEff (Variation of Effective size) was implemented in the R package VarEff and is made available at https://qgsp.jouy.inra.fr and at http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/VarEff.

  18. Prediction and estimation of effective population size.

    PubMed

    Wang, J; Santiago, E; Caballero, A

    2016-10-01

    Effective population size (Ne) is a key parameter in population genetics. It has important applications in evolutionary biology, conservation genetics and plant and animal breeding, because it measures the rates of genetic drift and inbreeding and affects the efficacy of systematic evolutionary forces, such as mutation, selection and migration. We review the developments in predictive equations and estimation methodologies of effective size. In the prediction part, we focus on the equations for populations with different modes of reproduction, for populations under selection for unlinked or linked loci and for the specific applications to conservation genetics. In the estimation part, we focus on methods developed for estimating the current or recent effective size from molecular marker or sequence data. We discuss some underdeveloped areas in predicting and estimating Ne for future research. PMID:27353047

  19. Prediction and estimation of effective population size.

    PubMed

    Wang, J; Santiago, E; Caballero, A

    2016-10-01

    Effective population size (Ne) is a key parameter in population genetics. It has important applications in evolutionary biology, conservation genetics and plant and animal breeding, because it measures the rates of genetic drift and inbreeding and affects the efficacy of systematic evolutionary forces, such as mutation, selection and migration. We review the developments in predictive equations and estimation methodologies of effective size. In the prediction part, we focus on the equations for populations with different modes of reproduction, for populations under selection for unlinked or linked loci and for the specific applications to conservation genetics. In the estimation part, we focus on methods developed for estimating the current or recent effective size from molecular marker or sequence data. We discuss some underdeveloped areas in predicting and estimating Ne for future research.

  20. Relative and absolute level populations in beam-foil-excited neutral helium

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Davidson, J.

    1975-01-01

    Relative and absolute populations of 19 levels in beam-foil-excited neutral helium at 0.275 MeV have been measured. The singlet angular-momentum sequences show dependences on principal quantum number consistent with n to the -3rd power, but the triplet sequences do not. Singlet and triplet angular-momentum sequences show similar dependences on level excitation energy. Excitation functions for six representative levels were measured in the range from 0.160 to 0.500 MeV. The absolute level populations increase with energy, whereas the neutral fraction of the beam decreases with energy. Further, the P angular-momentum levels are found to be overpopulated with respect to the S and D levels. The overpopulation decreases with increasing principal quantum number.

  1. Comparing population size estimators for plethodontid salamanders

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bailey, L.L.; Simons, T.R.; Pollock, K.H.

    2004-01-01

    Despite concern over amphibian declines, few studies estimate absolute abundances because of logistic and economic constraints and previously poor estimator performance. Two estimation approaches recommended for amphibian studies are mark-recapture and depletion (or removal) sampling. We compared abundance estimation via various mark-recapture and depletion methods, using data from a three-year study of terrestrial salamanders in Great Smoky Mountains National Park. Our results indicate that short-term closed-population, robust design, and depletion methods estimate surface population of salamanders (i.e., those near the surface and available for capture during a given sampling occasion). In longer duration studies, temporary emigration violates assumptions of both open- and closed-population mark-recapture estimation models. However, if the temporary emigration is completely random, these models should yield unbiased estimates of the total population (superpopulation) of salamanders in the sampled area. We recommend using Pollock's robust design in mark-recapture studies because of its flexibility to incorporate variation in capture probabilities and to estimate temporary emigration probabilities.

  2. Assessing minimum viable population size: Demography meets population genetics.

    PubMed

    Nunney, L; Campbell, K A

    1993-07-01

    The discussion of a population's minimum viable size provides a focus for the study of ecological and genetic factors that influence the persistence of a threatened population. There are many causes of extinction and the fate of a specific population cannot generally be predicted. This uncertainty has been dealt with in two ways: through stochastic demographic models to determine how to minimize extinction probabilities; and through population genetic theory to determine how best to maintain genetic variation, in the belief that the ability to evolve helps buffer a population against the unknown. Recent work suggests that these two very different approaches lead to very similar conclusions, at least under panmictic conditions. However, defining the ideal spatial distribution for an endangered species remains an important challenge.

  3. Estimating avian population size using Bowden's estimator

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Diefenbach, D.R.

    2009-01-01

    Avian researchers often uniquely mark birds, and multiple estimators could be used to estimate population size using individually identified birds. However, most estimators of population size require that all sightings of marked birds be uniquely identified, and many assume homogeneous detection probabilities. Bowden's estimator can incorporate sightings of marked birds that are not uniquely identified and relax assumptions required of other estimators. I used computer simulation to evaluate the performance of Bowden's estimator for situations likely to be encountered in bird studies. When the assumptions of the estimator were met, abundance and variance estimates and confidence-interval coverage were accurate. However, precision was poor for small population sizes (N ??? 50) unless a large percentage of the population was marked (>75%) and multiple (???8) sighting surveys were conducted. If additional birds are marked after sighting surveys begin, it is important to initially mark a large proportion of the population (pm ??? 0.5 if N ??? 100 or pm > 0.1 if N ??? 250) and minimize sightings in which birds are not uniquely identified; otherwise, most population estimates will be overestimated by >10%. Bowden's estimator can be useful for avian studies because birds can be resighted multiple times during a single survey, not all sightings of marked birds have to uniquely identify individuals, detection probabilities among birds can vary, and the complete study area does not have to be surveyed. I provide computer code for use with pilot data to design mark-resight surveys to meet desired precision for abundance estimates. ?? 2009 by The American Ornithologists' Union. All rights reserved.

  4. OSSOS. II. A Sharp Transition in the Absolute Magnitude Distribution of the Kuiper Belt’s Scattering Population

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shankman, C.; Kavelaars, JJ.; Gladman, B. J.; Alexandersen, M.; Kaib, N.; Petit, J.-M.; Bannister, M. T.; Chen, Y.-T.; Gwyn, S.; Jakubik, M.; Volk, K.

    2016-02-01

    We measure the absolute magnitude, H, distribution, dN(H) ∝ 10αH, of the scattering Trans-Neptunian Objects (TNOs) as a proxy for their size-frequency distribution. We show that the H-distribution of the scattering TNOs is not consistent with a single-slope distribution, but must transition around Hg ˜ 9 to either a knee with a shallow slope or to a divot, which is a differential drop followed by second exponential distribution. Our analysis is based on a sample of 22 scattering TNOs drawn from three different TNO surveys—the Canada-France Ecliptic Plane Survey, Alexandersen et al., and the Outer Solar System Origins Survey, all of which provide well-characterized detection thresholds—combined with a cosmogonic model for the formation of the scattering TNO population. Our measured absolute magnitude distribution result is independent of the choice of cosmogonic model. Based on our analysis, we estimate that the number of scattering TNOs is (2.4-8.3) × 105 for Hr < 12. A divot H-distribution is seen in a variety of formation scenarios and may explain several puzzles in Kuiper Belt science. We find that a divot H-distribution simultaneously explains the observed scattering TNO, Neptune Trojan, Plutino, and Centaur H-distributions while simultaneously predicting a large enough scattering TNO population to act as the sole supply of the Jupiter-Family Comets.

  5. Efficient and Unbiased Estimation of Population Size.

    PubMed

    Cruz, Marcos; Gómez, Domingo; Cruz-Orive, Luis M

    2015-01-01

    Population sizing from still aerial pictures is of wide applicability in ecological and social sciences. The problem is long standing because current automatic detection and counting algorithms are known to fail in most cases, and exhaustive manual counting is tedious, slow, difficult to verify and unfeasible for large populations. An alternative is to multiply population density with some reference area but, unfortunately, sampling details, handling of edge effects, etc., are seldom described. For the first time we address the problem using principles of geometric sampling. These principles are old and solid, but largely unknown outside the areas of three dimensional microscopy and stereology. Here we adapt them to estimate the size of any population of individuals lying on an essentially planar area, e.g. people, animals, trees on a savanna, etc. The proposed design is unbiased irrespective of population size, pattern, perspective artifacts, etc. The implementation is very simple-it is based on the random superimposition of coarse quadrat grids. Also, an objective error assessment is often lacking. For the latter purpose the quadrat counts are often assumed to be independent. We demonstrate that this approach can perform very poorly, and we propose (and check via Monte Carlo resampling) a new theoretical error prediction formula. As far as efficiency, counting about 50 (100) individuals in 20 quadrats, can yield relative standard errors of about 8% (5%) in typical cases. This fact effectively breaks the barrier hitherto imposed by the current lack of automatic face detection algorithms, because semiautomatic sampling and manual counting becomes an attractive option. PMID:26535587

  6. Efficient and Unbiased Estimation of Population Size

    PubMed Central

    Cruz, Marcos; Gómez, Domingo; Cruz-Orive, Luis M.

    2015-01-01

    Population sizing from still aerial pictures is of wide applicability in ecological and social sciences. The problem is long standing because current automatic detection and counting algorithms are known to fail in most cases, and exhaustive manual counting is tedious, slow, difficult to verify and unfeasible for large populations. An alternative is to multiply population density with some reference area but, unfortunately, sampling details, handling of edge effects, etc., are seldom described. For the first time we address the problem using principles of geometric sampling. These principles are old and solid, but largely unknown outside the areas of three dimensional microscopy and stereology. Here we adapt them to estimate the size of any population of individuals lying on an essentially planar area, e.g. people, animals, trees on a savanna, etc. The proposed design is unbiased irrespective of population size, pattern, perspective artifacts, etc. The implementation is very simple—it is based on the random superimposition of coarse quadrat grids. Also, an objective error assessment is often lacking. For the latter purpose the quadrat counts are often assumed to be independent. We demonstrate that this approach can perform very poorly, and we propose (and check via Monte Carlo resampling) a new theoretical error prediction formula. As far as efficiency, counting about 50 (100) individuals in 20 quadrats, can yield relative standard errors of about 8% (5%) in typical cases. This fact effectively breaks the barrier hitherto imposed by the current lack of automatic face detection algorithms, because semiautomatic sampling and manual counting becomes an attractive option. PMID:26535587

  7. Hamstring graft size and anthropometry in south Indian population

    PubMed Central

    Challa, Supradeeptha; Satyaprasad, Jonnalagedda

    2013-01-01

    Background and Aim The role of anthropometric measurements in the prediction of hamstring autograft size in Indian population remains unclear. Till now, no studies have been done on Indian population. Methods We evaluated 41 consecutive patients (34 males, 7 females) prospectively with anterior cruciate ligament deficiency scheduled for reconstruction using hamstring autograft at our institution between June 2011 and June 2013. Preoperatively we recorded age, gender, height, weight, body mass index, and activity level. Intraoperative measurements of semitendinosus tendon like absolute length, diameter before fashioning the graft and final diameter of the tripled graft using sizing tubes calibrated to 1 mm. Correlation coefficient (Pearson's r) analysis was used. Results As per study there is no correlation between graft diameter, age, sex, weight, activity, and body mass index, of patients. Height of patients correlated to graft diameter in both Indian men and women (p < 0.001). Conclusion Anthropometric measurements such as weight, gender, activity level cannot be used as definitive predictors for the hamstring graft diameter during harvest but height of the patients can be taken as good predictor in Indian population. PMID:26403553

  8. Approximating relational observables by absolute quantities: a quantum accuracy-size trade-off

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miyadera, Takayuki; Loveridge, Leon; Busch, Paul

    2016-05-01

    The notion that any physical quantity is defined and measured relative to a reference frame is traditionally not explicitly reflected in the theoretical description of physical experiments where, instead, the relevant observables are typically represented as ‘absolute’ quantities. However, the emergence of the resource theory of quantum reference frames as a new branch of quantum information science in recent years has highlighted the need to identify the physical conditions under which a quantum system can serve as a good reference. Here we investigate the conditions under which, in quantum theory, an account in terms of absolute quantities can provide a good approximation of relative quantities. We find that this requires the reference system to be large in a suitable sense.

  9. Effective Size of Populations under Selection

    PubMed Central

    Santiago, E.; Caballero, A.

    1995-01-01

    Equations to approximate the effective size (N(e)) of populations under continued selection are obtained that include the possibility of partial full-sib mating and other systems such as assortative mating. The general equation for the case of equal number of sexes and constant number of breeding individuals (N) is N(e) = 4N/[2(1 - α(I)) + (S(k)(2) + 4Q(2)C(2)) (1 + α(I) + 2α(O))], where S(k)(2) is the variance of family size due to sampling without selection, C(2) is the variance of selective advantages among families (the squared coefficient of variation of the expected number of offspring per family), α(I) is the deviation from Hardy-Weinberg proportions, α(O) is the correlation between genes of male and female parents, and Q(2) is the term accounting for the cumulative effect of selection on an inherited trait. This is obtained as Q = 2/[2 - G(1 + r)], where G is the remaining proportion of genetic variance in selected individuals and r is the correlation of the expected selective values of male and female parents. The method is also extended to the general case of different numbers of male and female parents. The predictive value of the formulae is tested under a model of truncation selection with the infinitesimal model of gene effects, where C(2) and G are a function of the selection intensity, the heritability and the intraclass correlation of sibs. Under random mating r = α(I) = -1/(N - 1) and α(O) = 0. Under partial full-sib mating with an average proportion β of full-sib matings per generation, r & β and α(O) & α(I) & β/ (4 - 3β). The prediction equation is compared to other approximations based on the long-term contributions of ancestors to descendants. Finally, based on the approach followed, a system of mating (compensatory mating) is proposed to reduce rates of inbreeding without loss of response in selection programs in which selected individuals from the largest families are mated to those from the smallest families. PMID:7713405

  10. Alignment of absolute and relative molecular size specifications for a polyvalent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PNEUMOVAX 23).

    PubMed

    MacNair, John E; Desai, Tejal; Teyral, Jennifer; Abeygunawardana, Chitrananda; Hennessey, John P

    2005-03-01

    An approach was developed to align release and end-expiry specifications for molecular size for the polyvalent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PNEUMOVAX 23). Each of the 23 polysaccharide components of the vaccine was separately subjected to ultrasonication to produce a series of preparations of decreasing weight-average molecular mass (Mw). These size-reduced polysaccharides were analysed as monovalent solutions by high-performance size exclusion chromatography (HPSEC) with multi-angle laser light scattering (MALLS) and refractive index (RI) detection to measure their Mw. These samples were also analysed by HPSEC with rate nephelometry (RN) detection to measure their relative molecular size (r-MS). The data from the two molecular size measurements established a correlation between Mw and r-MS. For each polysaccharide component of the vaccine, this correlation permits the direct alignment of the r-MS specification in the final formulated product with the Mw specification for the monovalent polysaccharide preparation. The alignment of specifications provides a high level of assurance that the quality control of the final vaccine product is consistent with that of the polysaccharide starting materials.

  11. 21 CFR 312.315 - Intermediate-size patient populations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 5 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Intermediate-size patient populations. 312.315... for Treatment Use § 312.315 Intermediate-size patient populations. Under this section, FDA may permit an investigational drug to be used for the treatment of a patient population smaller than...

  12. 21 CFR 312.315 - Intermediate-size patient populations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 5 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Intermediate-size patient populations. 312.315... for Treatment Use § 312.315 Intermediate-size patient populations. Under this section, FDA may permit an investigational drug to be used for the treatment of a patient population smaller than...

  13. 21 CFR 312.315 - Intermediate-size patient populations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 5 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Intermediate-size patient populations. 312.315... for Treatment Use § 312.315 Intermediate-size patient populations. Under this section, FDA may permit an investigational drug to be used for the treatment of a patient population smaller than...

  14. 21 CFR 312.315 - Intermediate-size patient populations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 5 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Intermediate-size patient populations. 312.315... for Treatment Use § 312.315 Intermediate-size patient populations. Under this section, FDA may permit an investigational drug to be used for the treatment of a patient population smaller than...

  15. Sample-size requirements for evaluating population size structure

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Vokoun, J.C.; Rabeni, C.F.; Stanovick, J.S.

    2001-01-01

    A method with an accompanying computer program is described to estimate the number of individuals needed to construct a sample length-frequency with a given accuracy and precision. First, a reference length-frequency assumed to be accurate for a particular sampling gear and collection strategy was constructed. Bootstrap procedures created length-frequencies with increasing sample size that were randomly chosen from the reference data and then were compared with the reference length-frequency by calculating the mean squared difference. Outputs from two species collected with different gears and an artificial even length-frequency are used to describe the characteristics of the method. The relations between the number of individuals used to construct a length-frequency and the similarity to the reference length-frequency followed a negative exponential distribution and showed the importance of using 300-400 individuals whenever possible.

  16. Population size predicts technological complexity in Oceania

    PubMed Central

    Kline, Michelle A.; Boyd, Robert

    2010-01-01

    Much human adaptation depends on the gradual accumulation of culturally transmitted knowledge and technology. Recent models of this process predict that large, well-connected populations will have more diverse and complex tool kits than small, isolated populations. While several examples of the loss of technology in small populations are consistent with this prediction, it found no support in two systematic quantitative tests. Both studies were based on data from continental populations in which contact rates were not available, and therefore these studies do not provide a test of the models. Here, we show that in Oceania, around the time of early European contact, islands with small populations had less complicated marine foraging technology. This finding suggests that explanations of existing cultural variation based on optimality models alone are incomplete because demography plays an important role in generating cumulative cultural adaptation. It also indicates that hominin populations with similar cognitive abilities may leave very different archaeological records, a conclusion that has important implications for our understanding of the origin of anatomically modern humans and their evolved psychology. PMID:20392733

  17. Recovering 3D Shape with Absolute Size from Endoscope Images Using RBF Neural Network

    PubMed Central

    Tsuda, Seiya; Iwahori, Yuji; Bhuyan, M. K.; Woodham, Robert J.; Kasugai, Kunio

    2015-01-01

    Medical diagnosis judges the status of polyp from the size and the 3D shape of the polyp from its medical endoscope image. However the medical doctor judges the status empirically from the endoscope image and more accurate 3D shape recovery from its 2D image has been demanded to support this judgment. As a method to recover 3D shape with high speed, VBW (Vogel-Breuß-Weickert) model is proposed to recover 3D shape under the condition of point light source illumination and perspective projection. However, VBW model recovers the relative shape but there is a problem that the shape cannot be recovered with the exact size. Here, shape modification is introduced to recover the exact shape with modification from that with VBW model. RBF-NN is introduced for the mapping between input and output. Input is given as the output of gradient parameters of VBW model for the generated sphere. Output is given as the true gradient parameters of true values of the generated sphere. Learning mapping with NN can modify the gradient and the depth can be recovered according to the modified gradient parameters. Performance of the proposed approach is confirmed via computer simulation and real experiment. PMID:25949235

  18. Repeated Habitat Disturbances by Fire Decrease Local Effective Population Size.

    PubMed

    Schrey, Aaron W; Ragsdale, Alexandria K; McCoy, Earl D; Mushinsky, Henry R

    2016-07-01

    Effective population size is a fundamental parameter in population genetics, and factors that alter effective population size will shape the genetic characteristics of populations. Habitat disturbance may have a large effect on genetic characteristics of populations by influencing immigration and gene flow, particularly in fragmented habitats. We used the Florida Sand Skink (Plestiodon reynoldsi) to investigate the effect of fire-based habitat disturbances on the effective population size in the highly threatened, severely fragmented, and fire dependent Florida scrub habitat. We screened 7 microsatellite loci in 604 individuals collected from 12 locations at Archbold Biological Station. Archbold Biological Station has an active fire management plan and detailed records of fires dating to 1967. Our objective was to determine how the timing, number, and intervals between fires affect effective population size, focusing on multiple fires in the same location. Effective population size was higher in areas that had not been burned for more than 10 years and decreased with number of fires and shorter time between fires. A similar pattern was observed in abundance: increasing abundance with time-since-fire and decreasing abundance with number of fires. The ratio of effective population size to census size was higher at sites with more recent fires and tended to decrease with time-since-last-fire. These results suggest that habitat disturbances, such as fire, may have a large effect in the genetic characteristics of local populations and that Florida Sand Skinks are well adapted to the natural fire dynamics required to maintain Florida scrub.

  19. Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R.

    2015-08-01

    Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems.

  20. Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism.

    PubMed

    Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R

    2015-08-01

    Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems. PMID:26382443

  1. Population size, pollination and phenotypic trait selection in Phyteuma spicatum

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weber, Anne; Kolb, Annette

    2013-02-01

    Plants in small populations may receive fewer visits, smaller pollen loads or pollen of poorer quality and suffer from reduced reproductive success compared to plants in larger populations. Consequently, pollen limitation of plants in small populations has been suggested to result in the evolution of reduced reliance on pollinators or the enhancement of traits that attract pollinators. The main aim of this study was to experimentally quantify the strength of pollinator-mediated selection on floral display size and flowering phenology in populations of varying size, using the self-incompatible, perennial herb Phyteuma spicatum as study species. We conducted supplementary hand pollinations in six populations (ranging in size between ca. 20-3000 flowering individuals) over two consecutive years and assessed selection gradients (i.e., trait-fitness relationships) in open- and hand-pollinated plants. Our results show that some populations are pollen limited in some years, but, contrary to our expectation, the degree of pollen limitation was not significantly related to population size. We found phenotypic selection for increased inflorescence size (in most populations and in both years), but we obtained no or no strong evidence that selection was pollinator-mediated or that the strength of selection was related to population size. This may have been the result of low statistical power, an inherent problem of studies examining effects of population size that require the inclusion of populations with only few individuals. In addition, given that selection appeared to be spatially and temporally variable, abiotic or biotic factors other than pollinators may have contributed to selection on inflorescence size.

  2. Estimation of population size using open capture-recapture models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McDonald, T.L.; Amstrup, Steven C.

    2001-01-01

    One of the most important needs for wildlife managers is an accurate estimate of population size. Yet, for many species, including most marine species and large mammals, accurate and precise estimation of numbers is one of the most difficult of all research challenges. Open-population capture-recapture models have proven useful in many situations to estimate survival probabilities but typically have not been used to estimate population size. We show that open-population models can be used to estimate population size by developing a Horvitz-Thompson-type estimate of population size and an estimator of its variance. Our population size estimate keys on the probability of capture at each trap occasion and therefore is quite general and can be made a function of external covariates measured during the study. Here we define the estimator and investigate its bias, variance, and variance estimator via computer simulation. Computer simulations make extensive use of real data taken from a study of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the Beaufort Sea. The population size estimator is shown to be useful because it was negligibly biased in all situations studied. The variance estimator is shown to be useful in all situations, but caution is warranted in cases of extreme capture heterogeneity.

  3. Novel estimates of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) population size and adult survival based on Wolbachia releases.

    PubMed

    Ritchie, Scott A; Montgomery, Brian L; Hoffmann, Ary A

    2013-05-01

    The size of Aedes aegypti (L.) mosquito populations and adult survival rates have proven difficult to estimate because of a lack of consistent quantitative measures to equate sampling methods, such as adult trapping, to actual population size. However, such estimates are critical for devising control methods and for modeling the transmission of dengue and other infectious agents carried by this species. Here we take advantage of recent releases of Wolbachia-infected Ae. aegypti coupled with the results of ongoing monitoring to estimate the size of adult Ae. aegypti populations around Cairns in far north Queensland, Australia. Based on the association between released adults infected with Wolbachia and data from Biogents Sentinel traps, we show that data from two locations are consistent with population estimates of approximately 5-10 females per house and daily survival rates of 0.7-0.9 for the released Wolbachia-infected females. Moreover, we estimate that networks of Biogents Sentinel traps at a density of one per 15 houses capture around 5-10% of the adult population per week, and provide a rapid estimate of the absolute population size of Ae. aegypti. These data are discussed with respect to release rates and monitoring in future Wolbachia releases and also the levels of suppression required to reduce dengue transmission. PMID:23802459

  4. Drift load in populations of small size and low density.

    PubMed

    Willi, Y; Griffin, P; Van Buskirk, J

    2013-03-01

    According to theory, drift load in randomly mating populations is determined by past population size, because enhanced genetic drift in small populations causes accumulation and fixation of recessive deleterious mutations of small effect. In contrast, segregating load due to mutations of low frequency should decline in smaller populations, at least when mutations are highly recessive and strongly deleterious. Strong local selection generally reduces both types of load. We tested these predictions in 13 isolated, outcrossing populations of Arabidopsis lyrata that varied in population size and plant density. Long-term size was estimated by expected heterozygosity at 20 microsatellite loci. Segregating load was assessed by comparing performance of offspring from selfings versus within-population crosses. Drift load was the heterosis effect created by interpopulation outbreeding. Results showed that segregating load was unrelated to long-term size. However, drift load was significantly higher in populations of small effective size and low density. Drift load was mostly expressed late in development, but started as early as germination and accumulated thereafter. The study largely confirms predictions of theory and illustrates that mutation accumulation can be a threat to natural populations.

  5. On population size estimators in the Poisson mixture model.

    PubMed

    Mao, Chang Xuan; Yang, Nan; Zhong, Jinhua

    2013-09-01

    Estimating population sizes via capture-recapture experiments has enormous applications. The Poisson mixture model can be adopted for those applications with a single list in which individuals appear one or more times. We compare several nonparametric estimators, including the Chao estimator, the Zelterman estimator, two jackknife estimators and the bootstrap estimator. The target parameter of the Chao estimator is a lower bound of the population size. Those of the other four estimators are not lower bounds, and they may produce lower confidence limits for the population size with poor coverage probabilities. A simulation study is reported and two examples are investigated. PMID:23865502

  6. On population size estimators in the Poisson mixture model.

    PubMed

    Mao, Chang Xuan; Yang, Nan; Zhong, Jinhua

    2013-09-01

    Estimating population sizes via capture-recapture experiments has enormous applications. The Poisson mixture model can be adopted for those applications with a single list in which individuals appear one or more times. We compare several nonparametric estimators, including the Chao estimator, the Zelterman estimator, two jackknife estimators and the bootstrap estimator. The target parameter of the Chao estimator is a lower bound of the population size. Those of the other four estimators are not lower bounds, and they may produce lower confidence limits for the population size with poor coverage probabilities. A simulation study is reported and two examples are investigated.

  7. Repeatability of adaptation in experimental populations of different sizes

    PubMed Central

    Lachapelle, Josianne; Reid, Joshua; Colegrave, Nick

    2015-01-01

    The degree to which evolutionary trajectories and outcomes are repeatable across independent populations depends on the relative contribution of selection, chance and history. Population size has been shown theoretically and empirically to affect the amount of variation that arises among independent populations adapting to the same environment. Here, we measure the contribution of selection, chance and history in different-sized experimental populations of the unicellular alga Chlamydomonas reinhardtii adapting to a high salt environment to determine which component of evolution is affected by population size. We find that adaptation to salt is repeatable at the fitness level in medium (Ne = 5 × 104) and large (Ne = 4 × 105) populations because of the large contribution of selection. Adaptation is not repeatable in small (Ne = 5 × 103) populations because of large constraints from history. The threshold between stochastic and deterministic evolution in this case is therefore between effective population sizes of 103 and 104. Our results indicate that diversity across populations is more likely to be maintained if they are small. Experimental outcomes in large populations are likely to be robust and can inform our predictions about outcomes in similar situations. PMID:25788593

  8. Population size-structure-dependent fitness and ecosystem consequences in Trinidadian guppies.

    PubMed

    Bassar, Ronald D; Heatherly, Thomas; Marshall, Michael C; Thomas, Steven A; Flecker, Alexander S; Reznick, David N

    2015-07-01

    Decades of theory and recent empirical results have shown that evolutionary, population, community and ecosystem properties are the result of feedbacks between ecological and evolutionary processes. The vast majority of theory and empirical research on these eco-evolutionary feedbacks has focused on interactions among population size and mean traits of populations. However, numbers and mean traits represent only a fraction of the possible feedback dimensions. Populations of many organisms consist of different size classes that differ in their impact on the environment and each other. Moreover, rarely do we know the map of ecological pathways through which changes in numbers or size structure cause evolutionary change. The goal of this study was to test the role of size structure in eco-evolutionary feedbacks of Trinidadian guppies and to begin to build an eco-evolutionary map along this unexplored dimension. We used a factorial experiment in mesocosms wherein we crossed high- and low-predation guppy phenotypes with population size structure. We tested the ability of changes in size structure to generate selection on the demographic rates of guppies using an integral projection model (IPM). To understand how fitness differences among high- and low-predation phenotypes may be generated, we measured the response of the biomass of lower trophic levels and nutrient cycling to the different phenotype and size structure treatments. We found a significant interaction between guppy phenotype and the size structure treatments for absolute fitness. Size structure had a very large effect on invertebrate biomass in the mesocosms, but there was little or no effect of the phenotype. The effect of size structure on algal biomass depended on guppy phenotype, with no difference in algal biomass in populations with more, smaller guppies, but a large decrease in algal biomass in mesocosms with phenotypes adapted to low-predation risk. These results indicate an important role for size

  9. Population size-structure-dependent fitness and ecosystem consequences in Trinidadian guppies.

    PubMed

    Bassar, Ronald D; Heatherly, Thomas; Marshall, Michael C; Thomas, Steven A; Flecker, Alexander S; Reznick, David N

    2015-07-01

    Decades of theory and recent empirical results have shown that evolutionary, population, community and ecosystem properties are the result of feedbacks between ecological and evolutionary processes. The vast majority of theory and empirical research on these eco-evolutionary feedbacks has focused on interactions among population size and mean traits of populations. However, numbers and mean traits represent only a fraction of the possible feedback dimensions. Populations of many organisms consist of different size classes that differ in their impact on the environment and each other. Moreover, rarely do we know the map of ecological pathways through which changes in numbers or size structure cause evolutionary change. The goal of this study was to test the role of size structure in eco-evolutionary feedbacks of Trinidadian guppies and to begin to build an eco-evolutionary map along this unexplored dimension. We used a factorial experiment in mesocosms wherein we crossed high- and low-predation guppy phenotypes with population size structure. We tested the ability of changes in size structure to generate selection on the demographic rates of guppies using an integral projection model (IPM). To understand how fitness differences among high- and low-predation phenotypes may be generated, we measured the response of the biomass of lower trophic levels and nutrient cycling to the different phenotype and size structure treatments. We found a significant interaction between guppy phenotype and the size structure treatments for absolute fitness. Size structure had a very large effect on invertebrate biomass in the mesocosms, but there was little or no effect of the phenotype. The effect of size structure on algal biomass depended on guppy phenotype, with no difference in algal biomass in populations with more, smaller guppies, but a large decrease in algal biomass in mesocosms with phenotypes adapted to low-predation risk. These results indicate an important role for size

  10. Easy Absolute Values? Absolutely

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Taylor, Sharon E.; Mittag, Kathleen Cage

    2015-01-01

    The authors teach a problem-solving course for preservice middle-grades education majors that includes concepts dealing with absolute-value computations, equations, and inequalities. Many of these students like mathematics and plan to teach it, so they are adept at symbolic manipulations. Getting them to think differently about a concept that they…

  11. The Reproducibility and Absolute Values of Echocardiographic Measurements of Left Ventricular Size and Function in Children are Algorithm Dependent

    PubMed Central

    Margossian, Renee; Chen, Shan; Sleeper, Lynn A.; Tani, Lloyd Y.; Shirali, Girish; Golding, Fraser; Tierney, Elif Seda Selamet; Altmann, Karen; Campbell, Michael J.; Szwast, Anita; Sharkey, Angela; Radojewski, Elizabeth; Colan, Steven D.

    2015-01-01

    Background Several quantification algorithms for measuring left ventricular (LV) size and function are used in clinical and research settings. We investigated the effect of the measurement algorithm and beat averaging on the reproducibility of measurements of the LV and assessed the magnitude of agreement among the algorithms in children with dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM). Methods Echocardiograms were obtained on 169 children from 8 clinical centers. Inter- and intra-reader reproducibility were assessed on measurements of LV volumes using biplane Simpson, modified Simpson (MS), and 5/6 x area x length (5/6AL) algorithms. Percent error (%error) was calculated as the inter- or intra-reader difference / mean x 100. Single beat measurements and the 3-beat average (3BA) were compared. Intra-class correlation coefficients (ICC) were calculated to assess agreement. Results Single beat inter-reader reproducibility was lowest (%error was highest) using biplane Simpson; 5/6AL and MS were similar but significantly better than biplane Simpson (p<.05). Single beat intra-reader reproducibility was highest using 5/6AL (p<.05). 3BA improved reproducibility for almost all measures (p<.05). Reproducibility in both single and 3BA values fell with greater LV dilation and systolic dysfunction (p<.05). ICCs were > 0.95 across measures, although absolute volume and mass values were systematically lower for biplane Simpson compared to MS and to 5/6AL. Conclusions The reproducibility of LV size and function measurements in children with DCM is highest using the 5/6AL algorithm, and can be further improved by using 3BA. However, values derived from different algorithms are not interchangeable. PMID:25728351

  12. Rate of language evolution is affected by population size

    PubMed Central

    Bromham, Lindell; Hua, Xia; Fitzpatrick, Thomas G.; Greenhill, Simon J.

    2015-01-01

    The effect of population size on patterns and rates of language evolution is controversial. Do languages with larger speaker populations change faster due to a greater capacity for innovation, or do smaller populations change faster due to more efficient diffusion of innovations? Do smaller populations suffer greater loss of language elements through founder effects or drift, or do languages with more speakers lose features due to a process of simplification? Revealing the influence of population size on the tempo and mode of language evolution not only will clarify underlying mechanisms of language change but also has practical implications for the way that language data are used to reconstruct the history of human cultures. Here, we provide, to our knowledge, the first empirical, statistically robust test of the influence of population size on rates of language evolution, controlling for the evolutionary history of the populations and formally comparing the fit of different models of language evolution. We compare rates of gain and loss of cognate words for basic vocabulary in Polynesian languages, an ideal test case with a well-defined history. We demonstrate that larger populations have higher rates of gain of new words whereas smaller populations have higher rates of word loss. These results show that demographic factors can influence rates of language evolution and that rates of gain and loss are affected differently. These findings are strikingly consistent with general predictions of evolutionary models. PMID:25646448

  13. Drift by drift: effective population size is limited by advection

    PubMed Central

    2008-01-01

    Background Genetic estimates of effective population size often generate surprising results, including dramatically low ratios of effective population size to census size. This is particularly true for many marine species, and this effect has been associated with hypotheses of "sweepstakes" reproduction and selective hitchhiking. Results Here we show that in advective environments such as oceans and rivers, the mean asymmetric transport of passively dispersed reproductive propagules will act to limit the effective population size in species with a drifting developmental stage. As advection increases, effective population size becomes decoupled from census size as the persistence of novel genetic lineages is restricted to those that arise in a small upstream portion of the species domain. Conclusion This result leads to predictions about the maintenance of diversity in advective systems, and complements the "sweepstakes" hypothesis and other hypotheses proposed to explain cases of low allelic diversity in species with high fecundity. We describe the spatial extent of the species domain in which novel allelic diversity will be retained, thus determining how large an appropriately placed marine reserve must be to allow the persistence of endemic allelic diversity. PMID:18710549

  14. Population size and time since island isolation determine genetic diversity loss in insular frog populations.

    PubMed

    Wang, Supen; Zhu, Wei; Gao, Xu; Li, Xianping; Yan, Shaofei; Liu, Xuan; Yang, Ji; Gao, Zengxiang; Li, Yiming

    2014-02-01

    Understanding the factors that contribute to loss of genetic diversity in fragmented populations is crucial for conservation measurements. Land-bridge archipelagoes offer ideal model systems for identifying the long-term effects of these factors on genetic variations in wild populations. In this study, we used nine microsatellite markers to quantify genetic diversity and differentiation of 810 pond frogs (Pelophylax nigromaculatus) from 24 islands of the Zhoushan Archipelago and three sites on nearby mainland China and estimated the effects of the island area, population size, time since island isolation, distance to the mainland and distance to the nearest larger island on reduced genetic diversity of insular populations. The mainland populations displayed higher genetic diversity than insular populations. Genetic differentiations and no obvious gene flow were detected among the frog populations on the islands. Hierarchical partitioning analysis showed that only time since island isolation (square-root-transformed) and population size (log-transformed) significantly contributed to insular genetic diversity. These results suggest that decreased genetic diversity and genetic differentiations among insular populations may have been caused by random genetic drift following isolation by rising sea levels during the Holocene. The results provide strong evidence for a relationship between retained genetic diversity and population size and time since island isolation for pond frogs on the islands, consistent with the prediction of the neutral theory for finite populations. Our study highlights the importance of the size and estimated isolation time of populations in understanding the mechanisms of genetic diversity loss and differentiation in fragmented wild populations.

  15. Population dynamic theory of size-dependent cannibalism.

    PubMed Central

    Claessen, David; de Roos, André M.; Persson, Lennart

    2004-01-01

    Cannibalism is characterized by four aspects: killing victims, gaining energy from victims, size-dependent interactions and intraspecific competition. In this review of mathematical models of cannibalistic populations, we relate the predicted population dynamic consequences of cannibalism to its four defining aspects. We distinguish five classes of effects of cannibalism: (i) regulation of population size; (ii) destabilization resulting in population cycles or chaos; (iii) stabilization by damping population cycles caused by other interactions; (iv) bistability such that, depending on the initial conditions, the population converges to one of two possible stable states; and (v) modification of the population size structure. The same effects of cannibalism may be caused by different combinations of aspects of cannibalism. By contrast, the same combination of aspects may lead to different effects. For particular cannibalistic species, the consequences of cannibalism will depend on the presence and details of the four defining aspects. Empirical evidence for the emerged theory of cannibalism is discussed briefly. The implications of the described dynamic effects of cannibalism are discussed in the context of community structure, making a comparison with the community effects of intraguild predation. PMID:15101690

  16. Bayesian Optimization Algorithm, Population Sizing, and Time to Convergence

    SciTech Connect

    Pelikan, M.; Goldberg, D.E.; Cantu-Paz, E.

    2000-01-19

    This paper analyzes convergence properties of the Bayesian optimization algorithm (BOA). It settles the BOA into the framework of problem decomposition used frequently in order to model and understand the behavior of simple genetic algorithms. The growth of the population size and the number of generations until convergence with respect to the size of a problem is theoretically analyzed. The theoretical results are supported by a number of experiments.

  17. Cohort size and migration in a West Indian population.

    PubMed

    Brittain, A W

    1990-01-01

    The author examines the relationship between cohort size and migration patterns among the population of the French West Indies island of St. Barthelemy. Data show that "for people born from 1878 to 1967, neither cohort size nor fluctuations in external demands for labor had a lasting effect on the probability of eventual migration. Emigration rates only slowed after the development of the local tourist industry brought prosperity to the island." PMID:12283449

  18. The elusive minimum viable population size for white sturgeon

    SciTech Connect

    Jager, Yetta; Lepla, Ken B.; Van Winkle, Webb; James, Mr Brad; McAdam, Dr Steve

    2010-01-01

    Biological conservation of sturgeon populations is a concern for many species. Those responsible for managing the white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) and similar species are interested in identifying extinction thresholds to avoid. Two thresholds that exist in theory are the minimum viable population size (MVP) and minimum amount of suitable habitat. In this paper, we present both model and empirical estimates of these thresholds. We modified a population viability analysis (PVA) model for white sturgeon to include two new Allee mechanisms. Despite this, PVA-based MVP estimates were unrealistically low compared with empirical estimates unless opportunities for spawning were assumed to be less frequent. PVA results revealed a trade-off between MVP and habitat thresholds; smaller populations persisted in longer river segments and vice versa. Our empirical analyses suggested (1) a MVP range based on population trends from 1,194 to 27,700 individuals, and (2) a MVP estimate of 4,000 individuals based on recruitment. Long-term historical population surveys are needed for more populations to pinpoint an MVP based on trends, whereas the available data were sufficient to estimate MVP based on recruitment. Beyond the MVP, we developed a hierarchical model for population status based on empirical data. Metapopulation support was the most important predictor of population health, followed by the length of free-flowing habitat, with habitat thresholds at 26 and 150 km. Together, these results suggest that habitat and connectivity are important determinants of population status that likely influence the site-specific MVP thresholds.

  19. Period-luminosity-metallicity relations, pulsation modes, absolute magnitudes, and distances for population 2 variable stars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nemec, James M.; Nemec, Amanda F. Linnell; Lutz, Thomas E.

    1994-07-01

    Period-luminosity-metallicity (P-L-(Fe/H) relations are presented for RR Lyrae stars, Pop. II Cepheids, anomalous Cepheids and SX Phe stars pulsating in the fundamental (F) and first-overtone (H) modes. The relations were derived by fitting regression lines to the observed pulsation periods and mean B, V, and K magnitudes of over 1200 stars in approximately 40 stellar systems. Analysis of covariance methods, which allow the simultaneous computation of more than one P-L-(Fe/H) relation, were used to estimate the slopes and intercepts. Of the 24 possible P-L-(Fe/H) relations for the four kinds of stars, two pulsation modes, and three passbands considered here, 18 relations have been derived-the others could not be derived because of a lack of photometry in one or more of the three passbands. The slopes for the F and H pulsators were tested for departures from equality for all types of stars and passbands; the results suggest that the observations are consistent with the assumption that, for each kind of star (except possibly the Pop. II Cepheids), the P-L-(Fe/h) relations for the F and H pulsation modes are parallel but vertically offset, with a family of lines corresponding to a range of metallicities. Pulsation modes and absolute magnitudes are presented for the non-RR Lyrae variable stars considered in the analysis, and distances are estimated for the program clusters. It is well established from previous studies that the P-L relations for RR Lyrae stars are approximately flat for the B passband, and have a slope delta mk/ delta log P approximately 2.4 for the K passband. We recover these slopes and find that the P-L-(Fe/H) relation in V has an intermediate slope, delta mv/delta log P = -0.52 plus or minus 0.11. A similar dependence of slope on passband is seen for classical Cepheids (see Madore & Freedman, PASP, 103, 933 (1991). The available B, V photometry for approximately 40 of the known globular cluster Cepheids are found to be consistent with Arp's AJ, 60

  20. Recent divergences and size decreases of eastern gorilla populations.

    PubMed

    Roy, Justin; Arandjelovic, Mimi; Bradley, Brenda J; Guschanski, Katerina; Stephens, Colleen R; Bucknell, Dan; Cirhuza, Henry; Kusamba, Chifundera; Kyungu, Jean Claude; Smith, Vince; Robbins, Martha M; Vigilant, Linda

    2014-11-01

    Compared with other African apes, eastern gorillas (Gorilla beringei) have been little studied genetically. We used analysis of autosomal DNA genotypes obtained from non-invasively collected faecal samples to estimate the evolutionary histories of the two extant mountain gorilla populations and the closely related eastern lowland gorillas. Our results suggest that eastern lowland gorillas and mountain gorillas split beginning some 10 000 years ago, followed 5000 years ago by the split of the two mountain gorilla populations of Bwindi Impenetrable National Park and the Virungas Massif. All three populations have decreased in effective population size, with particularly substantial 10-fold decreases for the mountain gorillas. These dynamics probably reflect responses to habitat changes resulting from climate fluctuations over the past 20 000 years as well as increasing human influence in this densely populated region in the last several thousand years.

  1. Recent divergences and size decreases of eastern gorilla populations

    PubMed Central

    Roy, Justin; Arandjelovic, Mimi; Bradley, Brenda J.; Guschanski, Katerina; Stephens, Colleen R.; Bucknell, Dan; Cirhuza, Henry; Kusamba, Chifundera; Kyungu, Jean Claude; Smith, Vince; Robbins, Martha M.; Vigilant, Linda

    2014-01-01

    Compared with other African apes, eastern gorillas (Gorilla beringei) have been little studied genetically. We used analysis of autosomal DNA genotypes obtained from non-invasively collected faecal samples to estimate the evolutionary histories of the two extant mountain gorilla populations and the closely related eastern lowland gorillas. Our results suggest that eastern lowland gorillas and mountain gorillas split beginning some 10 000 years ago, followed 5000 years ago by the split of the two mountain gorilla populations of Bwindi Impenetrable National Park and the Virungas Massif. All three populations have decreased in effective population size, with particularly substantial 10-fold decreases for the mountain gorillas. These dynamics probably reflect responses to habitat changes resulting from climate fluctuations over the past 20 000 years as well as increasing human influence in this densely populated region in the last several thousand years. PMID:25376805

  2. Inferring cetacean population densities from the absolute dynamic topography of the ocean in a hierarchical Bayesian framework.

    PubMed

    Pardo, Mario A; Gerrodette, Tim; Beier, Emilio; Gendron, Diane; Forney, Karin A; Chivers, Susan J; Barlow, Jay; Palacios, Daniel M

    2015-01-01

    We inferred the population densities of blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus) and short-beaked common dolphins (Delphinus delphis) in the Northeast Pacific Ocean as functions of the water-column's physical structure by implementing hierarchical models in a Bayesian framework. This approach allowed us to propagate the uncertainty of the field observations into the inference of species-habitat relationships and to generate spatially explicit population density predictions with reduced effects of sampling heterogeneity. Our hypothesis was that the large-scale spatial distributions of these two cetacean species respond primarily to ecological processes resulting from shoaling and outcropping of the pycnocline in regions of wind-forced upwelling and eddy-like circulation. Physically, these processes affect the thermodynamic balance of the water column, decreasing its volume and thus the height of the absolute dynamic topography (ADT). Biologically, they lead to elevated primary productivity and persistent aggregation of low-trophic-level prey. Unlike other remotely sensed variables, ADT provides information about the structure of the entire water column and it is also routinely measured at high spatial-temporal resolution by satellite altimeters with uniform global coverage. Our models provide spatially explicit population density predictions for both species, even in areas where the pycnocline shoals but does not outcrop (e.g. the Costa Rica Dome and the North Equatorial Countercurrent thermocline ridge). Interannual variations in distribution during El Niño anomalies suggest that the population density of both species decreases dramatically in the Equatorial Cold Tongue and the Costa Rica Dome, and that their distributions retract to particular areas that remain productive, such as the more oceanic waters in the central California Current System, the northern Gulf of California, the North Equatorial Countercurrent thermocline ridge, and the more southern portion of the

  3. Inferring cetacean population densities from the absolute dynamic topography of the ocean in a hierarchical Bayesian framework.

    PubMed

    Pardo, Mario A; Gerrodette, Tim; Beier, Emilio; Gendron, Diane; Forney, Karin A; Chivers, Susan J; Barlow, Jay; Palacios, Daniel M

    2015-01-01

    We inferred the population densities of blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus) and short-beaked common dolphins (Delphinus delphis) in the Northeast Pacific Ocean as functions of the water-column's physical structure by implementing hierarchical models in a Bayesian framework. This approach allowed us to propagate the uncertainty of the field observations into the inference of species-habitat relationships and to generate spatially explicit population density predictions with reduced effects of sampling heterogeneity. Our hypothesis was that the large-scale spatial distributions of these two cetacean species respond primarily to ecological processes resulting from shoaling and outcropping of the pycnocline in regions of wind-forced upwelling and eddy-like circulation. Physically, these processes affect the thermodynamic balance of the water column, decreasing its volume and thus the height of the absolute dynamic topography (ADT). Biologically, they lead to elevated primary productivity and persistent aggregation of low-trophic-level prey. Unlike other remotely sensed variables, ADT provides information about the structure of the entire water column and it is also routinely measured at high spatial-temporal resolution by satellite altimeters with uniform global coverage. Our models provide spatially explicit population density predictions for both species, even in areas where the pycnocline shoals but does not outcrop (e.g. the Costa Rica Dome and the North Equatorial Countercurrent thermocline ridge). Interannual variations in distribution during El Niño anomalies suggest that the population density of both species decreases dramatically in the Equatorial Cold Tongue and the Costa Rica Dome, and that their distributions retract to particular areas that remain productive, such as the more oceanic waters in the central California Current System, the northern Gulf of California, the North Equatorial Countercurrent thermocline ridge, and the more southern portion of the

  4. Inferring Cetacean Population Densities from the Absolute Dynamic Topography of the Ocean in a Hierarchical Bayesian Framework

    PubMed Central

    Pardo, Mario A.; Gerrodette, Tim; Beier, Emilio; Gendron, Diane; Forney, Karin A.; Chivers, Susan J.; Barlow, Jay; Palacios, Daniel M.

    2015-01-01

    We inferred the population densities of blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus) and short-beaked common dolphins (Delphinus delphis) in the Northeast Pacific Ocean as functions of the water-column’s physical structure by implementing hierarchical models in a Bayesian framework. This approach allowed us to propagate the uncertainty of the field observations into the inference of species-habitat relationships and to generate spatially explicit population density predictions with reduced effects of sampling heterogeneity. Our hypothesis was that the large-scale spatial distributions of these two cetacean species respond primarily to ecological processes resulting from shoaling and outcropping of the pycnocline in regions of wind-forced upwelling and eddy-like circulation. Physically, these processes affect the thermodynamic balance of the water column, decreasing its volume and thus the height of the absolute dynamic topography (ADT). Biologically, they lead to elevated primary productivity and persistent aggregation of low-trophic-level prey. Unlike other remotely sensed variables, ADT provides information about the structure of the entire water column and it is also routinely measured at high spatial-temporal resolution by satellite altimeters with uniform global coverage. Our models provide spatially explicit population density predictions for both species, even in areas where the pycnocline shoals but does not outcrop (e.g. the Costa Rica Dome and the North Equatorial Countercurrent thermocline ridge). Interannual variations in distribution during El Niño anomalies suggest that the population density of both species decreases dramatically in the Equatorial Cold Tongue and the Costa Rica Dome, and that their distributions retract to particular areas that remain productive, such as the more oceanic waters in the central California Current System, the northern Gulf of California, the North Equatorial Countercurrent thermocline ridge, and the more southern portion of

  5. Inferring the Dynamics of Effective Population Size Using Autosomal Genomes

    PubMed Central

    Hou, Zheng; Luo, Yin; Wang, Zhisheng; Zheng, Hong-Xiang; Wang, Yi; Zhou, Hang; Wu, Leqin; Jin, Li

    2016-01-01

    Next-generation sequencing technology has provided a great opportunity for inferring human demographic history by investigating changes in the effective population size (Ne). In this report, we introduce a strategy for estimating Ne dynamics, allowing the exploration of large multi-locus SNP datasets. We applied this strategy to the Phase 1 Han Chinese samples from the 1000 Genomes Project. The Han Chinese population has undergone a continuous expansion since 25,000 years ago, at first slowly from about 7,300 to 9,800 (at the end of the last glacial maximum about 15,000 YBP), then more quickly to about 46,000 (at the beginning of the Neolithic about 8,000 YBP), and then even more quickly to reach a population size of about 140,000 (recently). PMID:26832887

  6. Critical Mutation Rate Has an Exponential Dependence on Population Size in Haploid and Diploid Populations

    PubMed Central

    Aston, Elizabeth; Channon, Alastair; Day, Charles; Knight, Christopher G.

    2013-01-01

    Understanding the effect of population size on the key parameters of evolution is particularly important for populations nearing extinction. There are evolutionary pressures to evolve sequences that are both fit and robust. At high mutation rates, individuals with greater mutational robustness can outcompete those with higher fitness. This is survival-of-the-flattest, and has been observed in digital organisms, theoretically, in simulated RNA evolution, and in RNA viruses. We introduce an algorithmic method capable of determining the relationship between population size, the critical mutation rate at which individuals with greater robustness to mutation are favoured over individuals with greater fitness, and the error threshold. Verification for this method is provided against analytical models for the error threshold. We show that the critical mutation rate for increasing haploid population sizes can be approximated by an exponential function, with much lower mutation rates tolerated by small populations. This is in contrast to previous studies which identified that critical mutation rate was independent of population size. The algorithm is extended to diploid populations in a system modelled on the biological process of meiosis. The results confirm that the relationship remains exponential, but show that both the critical mutation rate and error threshold are lower for diploids, rather than higher as might have been expected. Analyzing the transition from critical mutation rate to error threshold provides an improved definition of critical mutation rate. Natural populations with their numbers in decline can be expected to lose genetic material in line with the exponential model, accelerating and potentially irreversibly advancing their decline, and this could potentially affect extinction, recovery and population management strategy. The effect of population size is particularly strong in small populations with 100 individuals or less; the exponential model has

  7. Family size and effective population size in a hatchery stock of coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Simon, R.C.; McIntyre, J.D.; Hemmingsen, A.R.

    1986-01-01

    Means and variances of family size measured in five year-classes of wire-tagged coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) were linearly related. Population effective size was calculated by using estimated means and variances of family size in a 25-yr data set. Although numbers of age 3 adults returning to the hatchery appeared to be large enough to avoid inbreeding problems (the 25-yr mean exceeded 4500), the numbers actually contributing to the hatchery production may be too low. Several strategies are proposed to correct the problem perceived. Argument is given to support the contention that the problem of effective size is fairly general and is not confined to the present study population.

  8. The influence of male parr body size and mate competition on fertilization success and effective population size in Atlantic salmon.

    PubMed

    Jones, M W; Hutchings, J A

    2001-06-01

    Alternative mating strategies in male Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar, are characterized by variability in body size and mate competition. Controlling breeding numbers of larger, older anadromous males, we examined whether body size of mature male parr influenced fertilization success and whether such an association was affected by mate competition among parr. Variation at three to four hypervariable microsatellite loci was used to determine individual paternity of 53-60 offspring from two or three nests from each experimental treatment. Although individual and total parr reproductive success differed significantly among nests within treatments, there was no relationship between parr size and individual reproductive success at any level of competition when anadromous males were involved. However, in a single treatment having no anadromous male, the influence of body size on parr fertilization success was highly significant. Combining data from all treatments, parr body size was an important predictor of the probability of an individual being involved in spawning. We found a negative relationship between total parr reproductive success and intensity of anadromous male competition. To our knowledge, the present study is the first to estimate the effective number of males from individual fertilization success in fish. Our estimates of Ne should not be taken as absolute and may have a downward bias because we did not sample all nests and we used a proxy for lifetime reproductive success. They do, however, illustrate how mature male parr can greatly increase the effective number of males when the latter is estimated from anadromous individuals alone. Although reproductive success by mature male parr increases the effective number of males, this increase seems likely to be most pronounced in natural populations when the number of anadromous males is low.

  9. Size-specific sensitivity: Applying a new structured population model

    SciTech Connect

    Easterling, M.R.; Ellner, S.P.; Dixon, P.M.

    2000-03-01

    Matrix population models require the population to be divided into discrete stage classes. In many cases, especially when classes are defined by a continuous variable, such as length or mass, there are no natural breakpoints, and the division is artificial. The authors introduce the integral projection model, which eliminates the need for division into discrete classes, without requiring any additional biological assumptions. Like a traditional matrix model, the integral projection model provides estimates of the asymptotic growth rate, stable size distribution, reproductive values, and sensitivities of the growth rate to changes in vital rates. However, where the matrix model represents the size distributions, reproductive value, and sensitivities as step functions (constant within a stage class), the integral projection model yields smooth curves for each of these as a function of individual size. The authors describe a method for fitting the model to data, and they apply this method to data on an endangered plant species, northern monkshood (Aconitum noveboracense), with individuals classified by stem diameter. The matrix and integral models yield similar estimates of the asymptotic growth rate, but the reproductive values and sensitivities in the matrix model are sensitive to the choice of stage classes. The integral projection model avoids this problem and yields size-specific sensitivities that are not affected by stage duration. These general properties of the integral projection model will make it advantageous for other populations where there is no natural division of individuals into stage classes.

  10. Population size and time since island isolation determine genetic diversity loss in insular frog populations.

    PubMed

    Wang, Supen; Zhu, Wei; Gao, Xu; Li, Xianping; Yan, Shaofei; Liu, Xuan; Yang, Ji; Gao, Zengxiang; Li, Yiming

    2014-02-01

    Understanding the factors that contribute to loss of genetic diversity in fragmented populations is crucial for conservation measurements. Land-bridge archipelagoes offer ideal model systems for identifying the long-term effects of these factors on genetic variations in wild populations. In this study, we used nine microsatellite markers to quantify genetic diversity and differentiation of 810 pond frogs (Pelophylax nigromaculatus) from 24 islands of the Zhoushan Archipelago and three sites on nearby mainland China and estimated the effects of the island area, population size, time since island isolation, distance to the mainland and distance to the nearest larger island on reduced genetic diversity of insular populations. The mainland populations displayed higher genetic diversity than insular populations. Genetic differentiations and no obvious gene flow were detected among the frog populations on the islands. Hierarchical partitioning analysis showed that only time since island isolation (square-root-transformed) and population size (log-transformed) significantly contributed to insular genetic diversity. These results suggest that decreased genetic diversity and genetic differentiations among insular populations may have been caused by random genetic drift following isolation by rising sea levels during the Holocene. The results provide strong evidence for a relationship between retained genetic diversity and population size and time since island isolation for pond frogs on the islands, consistent with the prediction of the neutral theory for finite populations. Our study highlights the importance of the size and estimated isolation time of populations in understanding the mechanisms of genetic diversity loss and differentiation in fragmented wild populations. PMID:24351057

  11. Plant genotypic diversity increases population size of a herbivorous insect

    PubMed Central

    Utsumi, Shunsuke; Ando, Yoshino; Craig, Timothy P.; Ohgushi, Takayuki

    2011-01-01

    It is critical to incorporate the process of population dynamics into community genetics studies to identify the mechanisms of the linkage between host plant genetics and associated communities. We studied the effects of plant genotypic diversity of tall goldenrod Solidago altissima on the population dynamics of the aphid Uroleucon nigrotuberculatum. We found genotypic variation in plant resistance to the aphid in our experiments. To determine the impact of plant genotypic diversity on aphid population dynamics, we compared aphid densities under conditions of three treatments: single-genotype plots, mixed-genotype plots and mixed-genotype-with-cages plots. In the latter treatment plants were individually caged to prevent natural enemy attack and aphid movement among plants. The synergistic effects of genotypes on population size were demonstrated by the greater aphid population size in the mixed-genotype treatment than expected from additive effects alone. Two non-exclusive hypotheses are proposed to explain this pattern. First, there is a source–sink relationship among plant genotypes: aphids move from plant genotypes where their reproduction is high to genotypes where their reproduction is low. Second, natural enemy mortality is reduced in mixed plots in a matrix of diverse plant genotypes. PMID:21378084

  12. Comparing effective population sizes of dominant marine alphaproteobacteria lineages.

    PubMed

    Luo, Haiwei; Swan, Brandon K; Stepanauskas, Ramunas; Hughes, Austin L; Moran, Mary Ann

    2014-04-01

    A fundamental question in marine microbial ecology is how microbes adapt to ocean environments. Although numerically dominant populations are typically considered more successful, higher census population sizes (Nc) do not equate directly to a greater capability for adaptation. Instead, effective population size (Ne) determines the fate of deleterious and favourable mutations, and thus is a key parameter for determining the adaptive potential of a population. In the case of the SAR11 and Roseobacter lineages, two abundant heterotrophic bacteria in ocean surface waters with contrasting life history strategies, culture-independent population surveys suggest that SAR11s have greater Nc than Roseobacters. To determine relative Ne, we compared the ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous substitution rates (ω) of recently diverged lineages of these taxa. Values of ω associated with several of the Roseobacter subclades were lower than for SAR11 subclades, suggesting greater Ne in these cases. Most Roseobacter lineages also had smaller ω values compared with an atypical basal Roseobacter lineage with a large Nc. This finding provides insight into variability in Ne across two important marine bacterial lineages, and provides an evolutionary context for considering how heterotrophic marine bacteria may differ in their ability to adapt to changing ocean habitats.

  13. Coexistence of structured populations with size-based prey selection.

    PubMed

    Hartvig, Martin; Andersen, Ken Haste

    2013-11-01

    Species with a large adult-offspring size ratio and a preferred predator-prey mass ratio undergo ontogenetic trophic niche shift(s) throughout life. Trophic interactions between such species vary throughout life, resulting in different species-level interaction motifs depending on the maximum adult sizes and population size distributions. We explore the assembly and potential for coexistence of small communities where all species experience ontogenetic trophic niche shifts. The life-history of each species is described by a physiologically structured model and species identity is characterised by the trait: size at maturation. We show that a single species can exist in two different states: a 'resource driven state' and a 'cannibalistic state' with a large scope for emergent Allee effects and bistable states. Two species can coexist in two different configurations: in a 'competitive coexistence' state when the ratio between sizes at maturation of the two species is less than a predator-prey mass ratio and the resource level is low to intermediate, or in a 'trophic ladder' state if the ratio of sizes at maturation is larger than the predator-prey mass ratio at all resource levels. While there is a large scope for coexistence of two species, the scope for coexistence of three species is limited and we conclude that further trait differentiation is required for coexistence of more species-rich size-structured communities. PMID:23927897

  14. Effects of body size and temperature on population growth.

    PubMed

    Savage, Van M; Gilloly, James F; Brown, James H; Charnov, Eric L

    2004-03-01

    For at least 200 years, since the time of Malthus, population growth has been recognized as providing a critical link between the performance of individual organisms and the ecology and evolution of species. We present a theory that shows how the intrinsic rate of exponential population growth, rmax, and the carrying capacity, K, depend on individual metabolic rate and resource supply rate. To do this, we construct equations for the metabolic rates of entire populations by summing over individuals, and then we combine these population-level equations with Malthusian growth. Thus, the theory makes explicit the relationship between rates of resource supply in the environment and rates of production of new biomass and individuals. These individual-level and population-level processes are inextricably linked because metabolism sets both the demand for environmental resources and the resource allocation to survival, growth, and reproduction. We use the theory to make explicit how and why rmax exhibits its characteristic dependence on body size and temperature. Data for aerobic eukaryotes, including algae, protists, insects, zooplankton, fishes, and mammals, support these predicted scalings for rmax. The metabolic flux of energy and materials also dictates that the carrying capacity or equilibrium density of populations should decrease with increasing body size and increasing temperature. Finally, we argue that body mass and body temperature, through their effects on metabolic rate, can explain most of the variation in fecundity and mortality rates. Data for marine fishes in the field support these predictions for instantaneous rates of mortality. This theory links the rates of metabolism and resource use of individuals to life-history attributes and population dynamics for a broad assortment of organisms, from unicellular organisms to mammals.

  15. Minimum viable population sizes and global extinction risk are unrelated.

    PubMed

    Brook, Barry W; Traill, Lochran W; Bradshaw, Corey J A

    2006-04-01

    Theoretical and empirical work has shown that once reduced in size and geographical range, species face a considerably elevated risk of extinction. We predict minimum viable population sizes (MVP) for 1198 species based on long-term time-series data and model-averaged population dynamics simulations. The median MVP estimate was 1377 individuals (90% probability of persistence over 100 years) but the overall distribution was wide and strongly positively skewed. Factors commonly cited as correlating with extinction risk failed to predict MVP but were able to predict successfully the probability of World Conservation Union Listing. MVPs were most strongly related to local environmental variation rather than a species' intrinsic ecological and life history attributes. Further, the large variation in MVP across species is unrelated to (or at least dwarfed by) the anthropogenic threats that drive the global biodiversity crisis by causing once-abundant species to decline.

  16. Population variation in brain size of nine-spined sticklebacks (Pungitius pungitius) - local adaptation or environmentally induced variation?

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Most evolutionary studies on the size of brains and different parts of the brain have relied on interspecific comparisons, and have uncovered correlations between brain architecture and various ecological, behavioural and life-history traits. Yet, similar intraspecific studies are rare, despite the fact that they could better determine how selection and phenotypic plasticity influence brain architecture. We investigated the variation in brain size and structure in wild-caught nine-spined sticklebacks (Pungitius pungitius) from eight populations, representing marine, lake, and pond habitats, and compared them to data from a previous common garden study from a smaller number of populations. Results Brain size scaled hypo-allometrically with body size, irrespective of population origin, with a common slope of 0.5. Both absolute and relative brain size, as well as relative telencephalon, optic tectum and cerebellum size, differed significantly among the populations. Further, absolute and relative brain sizes were larger in pond than in marine populations, while the telencephalon tended to be larger in marine than in pond populations. These findings are partly incongruent with previous common garden results. A direct comparison between wild and common garden fish from the same populations revealed a habitat-specific effect: pond fish had relatively smaller brains in a controlled environment than in the wild, while marine fish were similar. All brain parts were smaller in the laboratory than in the wild, irrespective of population origin. Conclusion Our results indicate that variation among populations is large, both in terms of brain size and in the size of separate brain parts in wild nine-spined sticklebacks. However, the incongruence between the wild and common garden patterns suggests that much of the population variation found in the wild may be attributable to environmentally induced phenotypic plasticity. Given that the brain is among the most plastic

  17. Estimating Population Size Using the Network Scale Up Method

    PubMed Central

    Maltiel, Rachael; Raftery, Adrian E.; McCormick, Tyler H.; Baraff, Aaron J.

    2015-01-01

    We develop methods for estimating the size of hard-to-reach populations from data collected using network-based questions on standard surveys. Such data arise by asking respondents how many people they know in a specific group (e.g. people named Michael, intravenous drug users). The Network Scale up Method (NSUM) is a tool for producing population size estimates using these indirect measures of respondents’ networks. Killworth et al. (1998a,b) proposed maximum likelihood estimators of population size for a fixed effects model in which respondents’ degrees or personal network sizes are treated as fixed. We extend this by treating personal network sizes as random effects, yielding principled statements of uncertainty. This allows us to generalize the model to account for variation in people’s propensity to know people in particular subgroups (barrier effects), such as their tendency to know people like themselves, as well as their lack of awareness of or reluctance to acknowledge their contacts’ group memberships (transmission bias). NSUM estimates also suffer from recall bias, in which respondents tend to underestimate the number of members of larger groups that they know, and conversely for smaller groups. We propose a data-driven adjustment method to deal with this. Our methods perform well in simulation studies, generating improved estimates and calibrated uncertainty intervals, as well as in back estimates of real sample data. We apply them to data from a study of HIV/AIDS prevalence in Curitiba, Brazil. Our results show that when transmission bias is present, external information about its likely extent can greatly improve the estimates. The methods are implemented in the NSUM R package. PMID:26949438

  18. The effect of neighborhood size on effective population size in theory and in practice.

    PubMed

    Nunney, L

    2016-10-01

    The distinction between the effective size of a population (Ne) and the effective size of its neighborhoods (Nn) has sometimes become blurred. Ne reflects the effect of random sampling on the genetic composition of a population of size N, whereas Nn is a measure of within-population spatial genetic structure and depends strongly on the dispersal characteristics of a species. Although Nn is independent of Ne, the reverse is not true. Using simulations of a population of annual plants, it was found that the effect of Nn on Ne was well approximated by Ne=N/(1-FIS), where FIS (determined by Nn) was evaluated population wide. Nn only had a notable influence of increasing Ne as it became smaller (⩽16). In contrast, the effect of Nn on genetic estimates of Ne was substantial. Using the temporal method (a standard two-sample approach) based on 1000 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), and varying sampling method, sample size (2-25% of N) and interval between samples (T=1-32 generations), estimates of Ne ranged from infinity to <0.1% of the true value (defined as Ne based on 100% sampling). Estimates were never accurate unless Nn and T were large. Three sampling techniques were tested: same-site resampling, different-site resampling and random sampling. Random sampling was the least biased method. Extremely low estimates often resulted when different-site resampling was used, especially when the population was large and the sample fraction was small, raising the possibility that this estimation bias could be a factor determining some very low Ne/N that have been published. PMID:27553453

  19. Determining population size of territorial red-winged blackbirds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Albers, P.H.

    1976-01-01

    Population sizes of territorial male red-winged blackbirds (Agelaius phoeniceus) were determined with counts of territorial males (area count) and a Petersen-Lincoln Index method for roadsides (roadside estimate). Weather conditions and time of day did not influence either method. Combined roadside estimates had smaller error bounds than the individual transect estimates and were not hindered by the problem of zero recaptures. Roadside estimates were usually one-half as large as the area counts, presumably due to an observer bias for marked birds. The roadside estimate provides only an index of major changes in populations of territorial male redwings. When the roadside estimate is employed, the area count should be used to determine the amount and nature of observer bias. For small population surveys, the area count is probably more reliable and accurate than the roadside estimate.

  20. Naturalization of plant populations: the role of cultivation and population size and density.

    PubMed

    Minton, Mark S; Mack, Richard N

    2010-10-01

    Field experimentation is required to assess the effects of environmental stochasticity on small immigrant plant populations-a widely understood but largely unexplored aspect of predicting any species' likelihood of naturalization and potential invasion. Cultivation can mitigate this stochasticity, although the outcome for a population under cultivation nevertheless varies enormously from extinction to persistence. Using factorial experiments, we investigated the effects of population size, density, and cultivation (irrigation) on the fate of founder populations for four alien species with different life history characteristics (Echinochloa frumentacea, Fagopyrum esculentum, Helianthus annuus, and Trifolium incarnatum) in eastern Washington, USA. The fate of founder populations was highly variable within and among the 3 years of experimentation and illustrates the often precarious environment encountered by plant immigrants. Larger founder populations produced more seeds (P < 0.001); the role of founder population size, however, differed among years. Irrigation resulted in higher percent survival (P < 0.001) and correspondingly larger net reproductive rate (R(0); P < 0.001). But the minimum level of irrigation for establishment, R(0) > 1, differed among years and species. Sowing density did not affect the likelihood of establishment for any species. Our results underscore the importance of environmental stochasticity in determining the fate of founder populations and the potential of cultivation and large population size in countering the long odds against naturalization. Any implementation of often proposed post-immigration field trials to assess the risk of an alien species becoming naturalized, a requisite step toward invasion, will need to assess different sizes of founder populations and the extent and character of cultivation (intentional or unintentional) that the immigrants might receive.

  1. Making sense of genetic estimates of effective population size.

    PubMed

    Waples, Robin S

    2016-10-01

    The last decade has seen an explosion of interest in use of genetic markers to estimate effective population size, Ne . Effective population size is important both theoretically (Ne is a key parameter in almost every aspect of evolutionary biology) and for practical application (Ne determines rates of genetic drift and loss of genetic variability and modulates the effectiveness of selection, so it is crucial to consider in conservation). As documented by Palstra & Fraser (), most of the recent growth in Ne estimation can be attributed to development or refinement of methods that can use a single sample of individuals (the older temporal method requires at least two samples separated in time). As with other population genetic methods, performance of new Ne estimators is typically evaluated with simulated data for a few scenarios selected by the author(s). Inevitably, these initial evaluations fail to fully consider the consequences of violating simplifying assumptions, such as discrete generations, closed populations of constant size and selective neutrality. Subsequently, many researchers studying natural or captive populations have reported estimates of Ne for multiple methods; often these estimates are congruent, but that is not always the case. Because true Ne is rarely known in these empirical studies, it is difficult to make sense of the results when estimates differ substantially among methods. What is needed is a rigorous, comparative analysis under realistic scenarios for which true Ne is known. Recently, Gilbert & Whitlock () did just that for both single-sample and temporal methods under a wide range of migration schemes. In the current issue of Molecular Ecology, Wang () uses simulations to evaluate performance of four single-sample Ne estimators. In addition to assessing effects of true Ne , sample size, and number of loci, Wang also evaluated performance under changing abundance, physical linkage and genotyping errors, as well as for some alternative

  2. Estimation of effective population size in continuously distributed populations: there goes the neighborhood

    PubMed Central

    Neel, M C; McKelvey, K; Ryman, N; Lloyd, M W; Short Bull, R; Allendorf, F W; Schwartz, M K; Waples, R S

    2013-01-01

    Use of genetic methods to estimate effective population size (Ne) is rapidly increasing, but all approaches make simplifying assumptions unlikely to be met in real populations. In particular, all assume a single, unstructured population, and none has been evaluated for use with continuously distributed species. We simulated continuous populations with local mating structure, as envisioned by Wright's concept of neighborhood size (NS), and evaluated performance of a single-sample estimator based on linkage disequilibrium (LD), which provides an estimate of the effective number of parents that produced the sample (Nb). Results illustrate the interacting effects of two phenomena, drift and mixture, that contribute to LD. Samples from areas equal to or smaller than a breeding window produced estimates close to the NS. As the sampling window increased in size to encompass multiple genetic neighborhoods, mixture LD from a two-locus Wahlund effect overwhelmed the reduction in drift LD from incorporating offspring from more parents. As a consequence, never approached the global Ne, even when the geographic scale of sampling was large. Results indicate that caution is needed in applying standard methods for estimating effective size to continuously distributed populations. PMID:23652561

  3. Long-term effective population size dynamics of an intensively monitored vertebrate population.

    PubMed

    Mueller, A-K; Chakarov, N; Krüger, O; Hoffman, J I

    2016-10-01

    Long-term genetic data from intensively monitored natural populations are important for understanding how effective population sizes (Ne) can vary over time. We therefore genotyped 1622 common buzzard (Buteo buteo) chicks sampled over 12 consecutive years (2002-2013 inclusive) at 15 microsatellite loci. This data set allowed us to both compare single-sample with temporal approaches and explore temporal patterns in the effective number of parents that produced each cohort in relation to the observed population dynamics. We found reasonable consistency between linkage disequilibrium-based single-sample and temporal estimators, particularly during the latter half of the study, but no clear relationship between annual Ne estimates () and census sizes. We also documented a 14-fold increase in between 2008 and 2011, a period during which the census size doubled, probably reflecting a combination of higher adult survival and immigration from further afield. Our study thus reveals appreciable temporal heterogeneity in the effective population size of a natural vertebrate population, confirms the need for long-term studies and cautions against drawing conclusions from a single sample. PMID:27553455

  4. Effect of distance-related heterogeneity on population size estimates from point counts

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Efford, Murray G.; Dawson, Deanna K.

    2009-01-01

    Point counts are used widely to index bird populations. Variation in the proportion of birds counted is a known source of error, and for robust inference it has been advocated that counts be converted to estimates of absolute population size. We used simulation to assess nine methods for the conduct and analysis of point counts when the data included distance-related heterogeneity of individual detection probability. Distance from the observer is a ubiquitous source of heterogeneity, because nearby birds are more easily detected than distant ones. Several recent methods (dependent double-observer, time of first detection, time of detection, independent multiple-observer, and repeated counts) do not account for distance-related heterogeneity, at least in their simpler forms. We assessed bias in estimates of population size by simulating counts with fixed radius w over four time intervals (occasions). Detection probability per occasion was modeled as a half-normal function of distance with scale parameter sigma and intercept g(0) = 1.0. Bias varied with sigma/w; values of sigma inferred from published studies were often 50% for a 100-m fixed-radius count. More critically, the bias of adjusted counts sometimes varied more than that of unadjusted counts, and inference from adjusted counts would be less robust. The problem was not solved by using mixture models or including distance as a covariate. Conventional distance sampling performed well in simulations, but its assumptions are difficult to meet in the field. We conclude that no existing method allows effective estimation of population size from point counts.

  5. Understanding the size growth of massive galaxies through stellar populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferreras, Ignacio

    2015-08-01

    The growth of massive galaxies remains an open problem. The observational evidence seems to converge on a two-stage scenario, where a compact massive core is formed during an early, intense burst, followed by a more extended process of mass and size growth at intermediate redshift (z<2). This talk focuses on the latter, exploring the growth of massive galaxies through a detailed analysis of the stellar populations in close pairs, to study their formation history. Two surveys are explored (SHARDS and GAMA), probing the stellar populations of pre-merging systems out to z~1.3, and down to a mass ratio ~1:100. We will compare the results between medium band spectral fitting (SHARDS) and those from a more targeted analysis of line strengths in the GAMA data. The combination of the two datasets provide a unique insight of the growth channel of massive galaxies via mergers.

  6. Population size does not explain past changes in cultural complexity

    PubMed Central

    Vaesen, Krist; Collard, Mark; Cosgrove, Richard; Roebroeks, Wil

    2016-01-01

    Demography is increasingly being invoked to account for features of the archaeological record, such as the technological conservatism of the Lower and Middle Pleistocene, the Middle to Upper Paleolithic transition, and cultural loss in Holocene Tasmania. Such explanations are commonly justified in relation to population dynamic models developed by Henrich [Henrich J (2004) Am Antiq 69:197–214] and Powell et al. [Powell A, et al. (2009) Science 324(5932):1298–1301], which appear to demonstrate that population size is the crucial determinant of cultural complexity. Here, we show that these models fail in two important respects. First, they only support a relationship between demography and culture in implausible conditions. Second, their predictions conflict with the available archaeological and ethnographic evidence. We conclude that new theoretical and empirical research is required to identify the factors that drove the changes in cultural complexity that are documented by the archaeological record. PMID:27044082

  7. Asymmetric competition causes multimodal size distributions in spatially structured populations.

    PubMed

    Velázquez, Jorge; Allen, Robert B; Coomes, David A; Eichhorn, Markus P

    2016-01-27

    Plant sizes within populations often exhibit multimodal distributions, even when all individuals are the same age and have experienced identical conditions. To establish the causes of this, we created an individual-based model simulating the growth of trees in a spatially explicit framework, which was parametrized using data from a long-term study of forest stands in New Zealand. First, we demonstrate that asymmetric resource competition is a necessary condition for the formation of multimodal size distributions within cohorts. By contrast, the legacy of small-scale clustering during recruitment is transient and quickly overwhelmed by density-dependent mortality. Complex multi-layered size distributions are generated when established individuals are restricted in the spatial domain within which they can capture resources. The number of modes reveals the effective number of direct competitors, while the separation and spread of modes are influenced by distances among established individuals. Asymmetric competition within local neighbourhoods can therefore generate a range of complex size distributions within even-aged cohorts.

  8. Population size and winter distribution of eastern American oystercatchers

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brown, S.C.; Schulte, Shiloh A.; Harrington, B.; Winn, Brad; Bart, J.; Howe, M.

    2005-01-01

    Conservation of the eastern subspecies of the American oystercatcher (Haematopus palliatus palliatus) is a high priority in the U.S. Shorebird Conservation Plan, but previous population estimates were unreliable, information on distribution and habitat associations during winter was incomplete, and methods for long-term monitoring had not been developed prior to this survey. We completed the aerial survey proposed in the U.S. Shorebird Conservation Plan to determine population size, winter distribution, and habitat associations. We conducted coastal aerial surveys from New Jersey to Texas during November 2002 to February 2003. This area comprised the entire wintering range of the eastern American oystercatcher within the United States. Surveys covered all suitable habitat in the United States for the subspecies, partitioned into 3 survey strata: known roost sites, high-use habitat, and inter-coastal tidal habitat. We determined known roost sites from extensive consultation with biologists and local experts in each state. High-use habitat included sand islands, sand spits at inlets, shell rakes, and oyster reefs. Partner organizations conducted ground counts in most states. We used high resolution still photography to determine detection rates for estimates of the number of birds in particular flocks, and we used ground counts to determine detection rates of flocks. Using a combination of ground and aerial counts, we estimated the population of eastern American oystercatchers to be 10,971 +/- 298. Aerial surveys can serve an important management function for shorebirds and possibly other coastal waterbirds by providing population status and trend information across a wide geographic scale.

  9. Population genomics of eusocial insects: the costs of a vertebrate-like effective population size.

    PubMed

    Romiguier, J; Lourenco, J; Gayral, P; Faivre, N; Weinert, L A; Ravel, S; Ballenghien, M; Cahais, V; Bernard, A; Loire, E; Keller, L; Galtier, N

    2014-03-01

    The evolution of reproductive division of labour and social life in social insects has lead to the emergence of several life-history traits and adaptations typical of larger organisms: social insect colonies can reach masses of several kilograms, they start reproducing only when they are several years old, and can live for decades. These features and the monopolization of reproduction by only one or few individuals in a colony should affect molecular evolution by reducing the effective population size. We tested this prediction by analysing genome-wide patterns of coding sequence polymorphism and divergence in eusocial vs. noneusocial insects based on newly generated RNA-seq data. We report very low amounts of genetic polymorphism and an elevated ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous changes – a marker of the effective population size – in four distinct species of eusocial insects, which were more similar to vertebrates than to solitary insects regarding molecular evolutionary processes. Moreover, the ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous substitutions was positively correlated with the level of social complexity across ant species. These results are fully consistent with the hypothesis of a reduced effective population size and an increased genetic load in eusocial insects, indicating that the evolution of social life has important consequences at both the genomic and population levels.

  10. Genome-Wide Estimates of Coancestry, Inbreeding and Effective Population Size in the Spanish Holstein Population

    PubMed Central

    Rodríguez-Ramilo, Silvia Teresa; Fernández, Jesús; Toro, Miguel Angel; Hernández, Delfino; Villanueva, Beatriz

    2015-01-01

    Estimates of effective population size in the Holstein cattle breed have usually been low despite the large number of animals that constitute this breed. Effective population size is inversely related to the rates at which coancestry and inbreeding increase and these rates have been high as a consequence of intense and accurate selection. Traditionally, coancestry and inbreeding coefficients have been calculated from pedigree data. However, the development of genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms has increased the interest of calculating these coefficients from molecular data in order to improve their accuracy. In this study, genomic estimates of coancestry, inbreeding and effective population size were obtained in the Spanish Holstein population and then compared with pedigree-based estimates. A total of 11,135 animals genotyped with the Illumina BovineSNP50 BeadChip were available for the study. After applying filtering criteria, the final genomic dataset included 36,693 autosomal SNPs and 10,569 animals. Pedigree data from those genotyped animals included 31,203 animals. These individuals represented only the last five generations in order to homogenise the amount of pedigree information across animals. Genomic estimates of coancestry and inbreeding were obtained from identity by descent segments (coancestry) or runs of homozygosity (inbreeding). The results indicate that the percentage of variance of pedigree-based coancestry estimates explained by genomic coancestry estimates was higher than that for inbreeding. Estimates of effective population size obtained from genome-wide and pedigree information were consistent and ranged from about 66 to 79. These low values emphasize the need of controlling the rate of increase of coancestry and inbreeding in Holstein selection programmes. PMID:25880228

  11. Genome-wide estimates of coancestry, inbreeding and effective population size in the Spanish Holstein population.

    PubMed

    Rodríguez-Ramilo, Silvia Teresa; Fernández, Jesús; Toro, Miguel Angel; Hernández, Delfino; Villanueva, Beatriz

    2015-01-01

    Estimates of effective population size in the Holstein cattle breed have usually been low despite the large number of animals that constitute this breed. Effective population size is inversely related to the rates at which coancestry and inbreeding increase and these rates have been high as a consequence of intense and accurate selection. Traditionally, coancestry and inbreeding coefficients have been calculated from pedigree data. However, the development of genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms has increased the interest of calculating these coefficients from molecular data in order to improve their accuracy. In this study, genomic estimates of coancestry, inbreeding and effective population size were obtained in the Spanish Holstein population and then compared with pedigree-based estimates. A total of 11,135 animals genotyped with the Illumina BovineSNP50 BeadChip were available for the study. After applying filtering criteria, the final genomic dataset included 36,693 autosomal SNPs and 10,569 animals. Pedigree data from those genotyped animals included 31,203 animals. These individuals represented only the last five generations in order to homogenise the amount of pedigree information across animals. Genomic estimates of coancestry and inbreeding were obtained from identity by descent segments (coancestry) or runs of homozygosity (inbreeding). The results indicate that the percentage of variance of pedigree-based coancestry estimates explained by genomic coancestry estimates was higher than that for inbreeding. Estimates of effective population size obtained from genome-wide and pedigree information were consistent and ranged from about 66 to 79. These low values emphasize the need of controlling the rate of increase of coancestry and inbreeding in Holstein selection programmes.

  12. THE MASSIVE SATELLITE POPULATION OF MILKY-WAY-SIZED GALAXIES

    SciTech Connect

    Rodriguez-Puebla, Aldo; Avila-Reese, Vladimir; Drory, Niv

    2013-08-20

    subhalos should agree with the abundance of massive satellites in all MW-sized hosts, i.e., there is not a missing (massive) satellite problem for the {Lambda}CDM cosmology. However, we confirm that the maximum circular velocity, v{sub max}, of the subhalos of satellites smaller than m{sub *} {approx} 10{sup 8} M{sub Sun} is systematically larger than the v{sub max} inferred from current observational studies of the MW bright dwarf satellites; different from previous works, this conclusion is based on an analysis of the overall population of MW-sized galaxies. Some pieces of evidence suggest that the issue could refer only to satellite dwarfs but not to central dwarfs, then environmental processes associated with dwarfs inside host halos combined with supernova-driven core expansion should be on the basis of the lowering of v{sub max}.

  13. Absolute wealth and world region strongly predict overweight among women (ages 18-49) in 360 populations across 36 developing countries.

    PubMed

    Hruschka, Daniel J; Brewis, Alexandra A

    2013-07-01

    This paper proposes a benchmark for comparing SES gradients across countries, based on gross domestic product apportioned to members of differing wealth categories within countries. Using this approach, we estimate absolute wealth in 360 populations in 36 developing countries and model its relationship with overweight (BMI≥25) among non-pregnant women ages 18-49. A simple model based on absolute wealth alone strongly predicts odds of overweight (R(2)=0.59), a relationship that holds both between countries and between different groups in the same country (10 populations for each of 36 countries). Moreover, world region modifies this relationship, accounting for an additional 22% of variance (R(2)=0.81). This allows us to extract a basic pattern: rising rates of overweight in lower and middle income countries closely track increasing economic resources, and the shape of that gradient differs by region in systematic ways.

  14. Towards determination of absolute molar mass of cellulose polymer by size exclusion chromatography with mulitple angle laser light scattering detection.

    PubMed

    Pawcenis, Dominika; Thomas, Jacob L; Łojewski, Tomasz; Milczarek, Jakub M; Łojewska, Joanna

    2015-08-28

    The study focuses on determination of a set of crucial parameters for molar mass calculation of cellulose from the results of size exclusion chromatography coupled with multiple angle laser light scattering (MALLS) and differential refractive index (DRI) detectors. In the present work, cellulose has been derivatised to obtain cellulose tricarbanilate (CTC) soluble in tetrahydrofuran (THF). The parameters of Rayleigh scattering in the MALLS detector: refractive index increment (dn/dc) and second virial coefficient (A2) of CTC in THF were determined for laser wavelength 658nm. In order to avoid errors resulting from cellulose derivatisation by-products present in the CTC solution, the so called "on-line" method of measuring dn/dc and A2 was applied. Based on the A2 determination, its influence on cellulose molar mass calculations and cellulose molecular dimensions were critically assessed. The latter includes evaluation of artificially aged cellulose towards conceivable branching by conformation plot analysis.

  15. Towards determination of absolute molar mass of cellulose polymer by size exclusion chromatography with mulitple angle laser light scattering detection.

    PubMed

    Pawcenis, Dominika; Thomas, Jacob L; Łojewski, Tomasz; Milczarek, Jakub M; Łojewska, Joanna

    2015-08-28

    The study focuses on determination of a set of crucial parameters for molar mass calculation of cellulose from the results of size exclusion chromatography coupled with multiple angle laser light scattering (MALLS) and differential refractive index (DRI) detectors. In the present work, cellulose has been derivatised to obtain cellulose tricarbanilate (CTC) soluble in tetrahydrofuran (THF). The parameters of Rayleigh scattering in the MALLS detector: refractive index increment (dn/dc) and second virial coefficient (A2) of CTC in THF were determined for laser wavelength 658nm. In order to avoid errors resulting from cellulose derivatisation by-products present in the CTC solution, the so called "on-line" method of measuring dn/dc and A2 was applied. Based on the A2 determination, its influence on cellulose molar mass calculations and cellulose molecular dimensions were critically assessed. The latter includes evaluation of artificially aged cellulose towards conceivable branching by conformation plot analysis. PMID:26210115

  16. Making It Count: Improving Estimates of the Size of Transgender and Gender Nonconforming Populations.

    PubMed

    Deutsch, Madeline B

    2016-06-01

    An accurate estimate of the number of transgender and gender nonconforming people is essential to inform policy and funding priorities and decisions. Historical reports of population sizes of 1 in 4000 to 1 in 50,000 have been based on clinical populations and likely underestimate the size of the transgender population. More recent population-based studies have found a 10- to 100-fold increase in population size. Studies that estimate population size should be population based, employ the two-step method to allow for collection of both gender identity and sex assigned at birth, and include measures to capture the range of transgender people with nonbinary gender identities.

  17. Making It Count: Improving Estimates of the Size of Transgender and Gender Nonconforming Populations.

    PubMed

    Deutsch, Madeline B

    2016-06-01

    An accurate estimate of the number of transgender and gender nonconforming people is essential to inform policy and funding priorities and decisions. Historical reports of population sizes of 1 in 4000 to 1 in 50,000 have been based on clinical populations and likely underestimate the size of the transgender population. More recent population-based studies have found a 10- to 100-fold increase in population size. Studies that estimate population size should be population based, employ the two-step method to allow for collection of both gender identity and sex assigned at birth, and include measures to capture the range of transgender people with nonbinary gender identities. PMID:27135657

  18. A new multidimensional population health indicator for policy makers: absolute level, inequality and spatial clustering - an empirical application using global sub-national infant mortality data.

    PubMed

    Sartorius, Benn K D; Sartorius, Kurt

    2014-11-01

    The need for a multidimensional measure of population health that accounts for its distribution remains a central problem to guide the allocation of limited resources. Absolute proxy measures, like the infant mortality rate (IMR), are limited because they ignore inequality and spatial clustering. We propose a novel, three-part, multidimensional mortality indicator that can be used as the first step to differentiate interventions in a region or country. The three-part indicator (MortalityABC index) combines absolute mortality rate, the Theil Index to calculate mortality inequality and the Getis-Ord G statistic to determine the degree of spatial clustering. The analysis utilises global sub-national IMR data to empirically illustrate the proposed indicator. The three-part indicator is mapped globally to display regional/country variation and further highlight its potential application. Developing countries (e.g. in sub-Saharan Africa) display high levels of absolute mortality as well as variable mortality inequality with evidence of spatial clustering within certain sub-national units ("hotspots"). Although greater inequality is observed outside developed regions, high mortality inequality and spatial clustering are common in both developed and developing countries. Significant positive correlation was observed between the degree of spatial clustering and absolute mortality. The proposed multidimensional indicator should prove useful for spatial allocation of healthcare resources within a country, because it can prompt a wide range of policy options and prioritise high-risk areas. The new indicator demonstrates the inadequacy of IMR as a single measure of population health, and it can also be adapted to lower administrative levels within a country and other population health measures.

  19. Local extinction and recolonization, species effective population size, and modern human origins.

    PubMed

    Eller, Elise; Hawks, John; Relethford, John H

    2004-10-01

    A primary objection from a population genetics perspective to a multiregional model of modern human origins is that the model posits a large census size, whereas genetic data suggest a small effective population size. The relationship between census size and effective size is complex, but arguments based on an island model of migration show that if the effective population size reflects the number of breeding individuals and the effects of population subdivision, then an effective population size of 10,000 is inconsistent with the census size of 500,000 to 1,000,000 that has been suggested by archeological evidence. However, these models have ignored the effects of population extinction and recolonization, which increase the expected variance among demes and reduce the inbreeding effective population size. Using models developed for population extinction and recolonization, we show that a large census size consistent with the multiregional model can be reconciled with an effective population size of 10,000, but genetic variation among demes must be high, reflecting low interdeme migration rates and a colonization process that involves a small number of colonists or kin-structured colonization. Ethnographic and archeological evidence is insufficient to determine whether such demographic conditions existed among Pleistocene human populations, and further work needs to be done. More realistic models that incorporate isolation by distance and heterogeneity in extinction rates and effective deme sizes also need to be developed. However, if true, a process of population extinction and recolonization has interesting implications for human demographic history.

  20. Population genetic structure, linkage disequilibrium and effective population size of conserved and extensively raised village chicken populations of Southern Africa.

    PubMed

    Khanyile, Khulekani S; Dzomba, Edgar F; Muchadeyi, Farai C

    2015-01-01

    Extensively raised village chickens are considered a valuable source of biodiversity, with genetic variability developed over thousands of years that ought to be characterized and utilized. Surveys that can reveal a population's genetic structure and provide an insight into its demographic history will give valuable information that can be used to manage and conserve important indigenous animal genetic resources. This study reports population diversity and structure, linkage disequilibrium and effective population sizes of Southern African village chickens and conservation flocks from South Africa. DNA samples from 312 chickens from South African village and conservation flocks (n = 146), Malawi (n = 30) and Zimbabwe (n = 136) were genotyped using the Illumina iSelect chicken SNP60K BeadChip. Population genetic structure analysis distinguished the four conservation flocks from the village chicken populations. Of the four flocks, the Ovambo clustered closer to the village chickens particularly those sampled from South Africa. Clustering of the village chickens followed a geographic gradient whereby South African chickens were closer to those from Zimbabwe than to chickens from Malawi. Different conservation flocks seemed to have maintained different components of the ancestral genomes with a higher proportion of village chicken diversity found in the Ovambo population. Overall population LD averaged over chromosomes ranged from 0.03 ± 0.07 to 0.58 ± 0.41 and averaged 0.15 ± 0.16. Higher LD, ranging from 0.29 to 0.36, was observed between SNP markers that were less than 10 kb apart in the conservation flocks. LD in the conservation flocks steadily decreased to 0.15 (PK) and 0.24 (VD) at SNP marker interval of 500 kb. Genomewide LD decay in the village chickens from Malawi, Zimbabwe and South Africa followed a similar trend as the conservation flocks although the mean LD values for the investigated SNP intervals were lower. The results suggest low effective

  1. Population genetic structure, linkage disequilibrium and effective population size of conserved and extensively raised village chicken populations of Southern Africa

    PubMed Central

    Khanyile, Khulekani S.; Dzomba, Edgar F.; Muchadeyi, Farai C.

    2015-01-01

    Extensively raised village chickens are considered a valuable source of biodiversity, with genetic variability developed over thousands of years that ought to be characterized and utilized. Surveys that can reveal a population's genetic structure and provide an insight into its demographic history will give valuable information that can be used to manage and conserve important indigenous animal genetic resources. This study reports population diversity and structure, linkage disequilibrium and effective population sizes of Southern African village chickens and conservation flocks from South Africa. DNA samples from 312 chickens from South African village and conservation flocks (n = 146), Malawi (n = 30) and Zimbabwe (n = 136) were genotyped using the Illumina iSelect chicken SNP60K BeadChip. Population genetic structure analysis distinguished the four conservation flocks from the village chicken populations. Of the four flocks, the Ovambo clustered closer to the village chickens particularly those sampled from South Africa. Clustering of the village chickens followed a geographic gradient whereby South African chickens were closer to those from Zimbabwe than to chickens from Malawi. Different conservation flocks seemed to have maintained different components of the ancestral genomes with a higher proportion of village chicken diversity found in the Ovambo population. Overall population LD averaged over chromosomes ranged from 0.03 ± 0.07 to 0.58 ± 0.41 and averaged 0.15 ± 0.16. Higher LD, ranging from 0.29 to 0.36, was observed between SNP markers that were less than 10 kb apart in the conservation flocks. LD in the conservation flocks steadily decreased to 0.15 (PK) and 0.24 (VD) at SNP marker interval of 500 kb. Genomewide LD decay in the village chickens from Malawi, Zimbabwe and South Africa followed a similar trend as the conservation flocks although the mean LD values for the investigated SNP intervals were lower. The results suggest low effective

  2. Small population size and extremely low levels of genetic diversity in island populations of the platypus, Ornithorhynchus anatinus

    PubMed Central

    Furlan, Elise; Stoklosa, J; Griffiths, J; Gust, N; Ellis, R; Huggins, R M; Weeks, A R

    2012-01-01

    Genetic diversity generally underpins population resilience and persistence. Reductions in population size and absence of gene flow can lead to reductions in genetic diversity, reproductive fitness, and a limited ability to adapt to environmental change increasing the risk of extinction. Island populations are typically small and isolated, and as a result, inbreeding and reduced genetic diversity elevate their extinction risk. Two island populations of the platypus, Ornithorhynchus anatinus, exist; a naturally occurring population on King Island in Bass Strait and a recently introduced population on Kangaroo Island off the coast of South Australia. Here we assessed the genetic diversity within these two island populations and contrasted these patterns with genetic diversity estimates in areas from which the populations are likely to have been founded. On Kangaroo Island, we also modeled live capture data to determine estimates of population size. Levels of genetic diversity in King Island platypuses are perilously low, with eight of 13 microsatellite loci fixed, likely reflecting their small population size and prolonged isolation. Estimates of heterozygosity detected by microsatellites (HE= 0.032) are among the lowest level of genetic diversity recorded by this method in a naturally outbreeding vertebrate population. In contrast, estimates of genetic diversity on Kangaroo Island are somewhat higher. However, estimates of small population size and the limited founders combined with genetic isolation are likely to lead to further losses of genetic diversity through time for the Kangaroo Island platypus population. Implications for the future of these and similarly isolated or genetically depauperate populations are discussed. PMID:22837830

  3. Sex change and effective population size: implications for population genetic studies in marine fish.

    PubMed

    Coscia, I; Chopelet, J; Waples, R S; Mann, B Q; Mariani, S

    2016-10-01

    Large variance in reproductive success is the primary factor that reduces effective population size (Ne) in natural populations. In sequentially hermaphroditic (sex-changing) fish, the sex ratio is typically skewed and biased towards the 'first' sex, while reproductive success increases considerably after sex change. Therefore, sex-changing fish populations are theoretically expected to have lower Ne than gonochorists (separate sexes), assuming all other parameters are essentially equal. In this study, we estimate Ne from genetic data collected from two ecologically similar species living along the eastern coast of South Africa: one gonochoristic, the 'santer' sea bream Cheimerius nufar, and one protogynous (female-first) sex changer, the 'slinger' sea bream Chrysoblephus puniceus. For both species, no evidence of genetic structuring, nor significant variation in genetic diversity, was found in the study area. Estimates of contemporary Ne were significantly lower in the protogynous species, but the same pattern was not apparent over historical timescales. Overall, our results show that sequential hermaphroditism may affect Ne differently over varying time frames, and that demographic signatures inferred from genetic markers with different inheritance modes also need to be interpreted cautiously, in relation to sex-changing life histories.

  4. Sex change and effective population size: implications for population genetic studies in marine fish.

    PubMed

    Coscia, I; Chopelet, J; Waples, R S; Mann, B Q; Mariani, S

    2016-10-01

    Large variance in reproductive success is the primary factor that reduces effective population size (Ne) in natural populations. In sequentially hermaphroditic (sex-changing) fish, the sex ratio is typically skewed and biased towards the 'first' sex, while reproductive success increases considerably after sex change. Therefore, sex-changing fish populations are theoretically expected to have lower Ne than gonochorists (separate sexes), assuming all other parameters are essentially equal. In this study, we estimate Ne from genetic data collected from two ecologically similar species living along the eastern coast of South Africa: one gonochoristic, the 'santer' sea bream Cheimerius nufar, and one protogynous (female-first) sex changer, the 'slinger' sea bream Chrysoblephus puniceus. For both species, no evidence of genetic structuring, nor significant variation in genetic diversity, was found in the study area. Estimates of contemporary Ne were significantly lower in the protogynous species, but the same pattern was not apparent over historical timescales. Overall, our results show that sequential hermaphroditism may affect Ne differently over varying time frames, and that demographic signatures inferred from genetic markers with different inheritance modes also need to be interpreted cautiously, in relation to sex-changing life histories. PMID:27507184

  5. Founding population size of an aquatic invasive species

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kalinowski, Steven T.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Guy, Christopher S.; Benjamin Cox,

    2010-01-01

    Non-native species of fish threaten native fishes throughout North America, and in the Rocky Mountains, introduced populations of lake trout threaten native populations of bull trout. Effective management of lake trout and other exotic species require understanding the dynamics of invasion in order to either suppress non-native populations or to prevent their spread. In this study, we used microsatellite genetic data to estimate the number of lake trout that invaded a population of bull trout in Swan Lake, MT. Examination of genetic diversity and allele frequencies within the Swan Lake populations showed that most of the genes in the lake trout population are descended from two founders. This emphasizes the importance of preventing even a few lake trout from colonizing new territory.

  6. Effects of spatial structure of population size on the population dynamics of barnacles across their elevational range.

    PubMed

    Fukaya, Keiichi; Okuda, Takehiro; Nakaoka, Masahiro; Noda, Takashi

    2014-11-01

    Explanations for why population dynamics vary across the range of a species reflect two contrasting hypotheses: (i) temporal variability of populations is larger in the centre of the range compared to the margins because overcompensatory density dependence destabilizes population dynamics and (ii) population variability is larger near the margins, where populations are more susceptible to environmental fluctuations. In both of these hypotheses, positions within the range are assumed to affect population variability. In contrast, the fact that population variability is often related to mean population size implies that the spatial structure of the population size within the range of a species may also be a useful predictor of the spatial variation in temporal variability of population size over the range of the species. To explore how population temporal variability varies spatially and the underlying processes responsible for the spatial variation, we focused on the intertidal barnacle Chthamalus dalli and examined differences in its population dynamics along the tidal levels it inhabits. Changes in coverage of barnacle populations were monitored for 10.5 years at 25 plots spanning the elevational range of this species. Data were analysed by fitting a population dynamics model to estimate the effects of density-dependent and density-independent processes on population growth. We also examined the temporal mean-variance relationship of population size with parameters estimated from the population dynamics model. We found that the relative variability of populations tended to increase from the centre of the elevational range towards the margins because of an increase in the magnitude of stochastic fluctuations of growth rates. Thus, our results supported hypothesis (2). We also found that spatial variations in temporal population variability were well characterized by Taylor's power law, the relative population variability being inversely related to the mean

  7. Influence of Population Density on Offspring Number and Size in Burying Beetles

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rauter, Claudia M.

    2010-01-01

    This laboratory exercise investigates the influence of population density on offspring number and size in burying beetles. Students test the theoretical predictions that brood size declines and offspring size increases when competition over resources becomes stronger with increasing population density. Students design the experiment, collect and…

  8. Body size distributions of the pale grass blue butterfly in Japan: Size rules and the status of the Fukushima population.

    PubMed

    Taira, Wataru; Iwasaki, Mayo; Otaki, Joji M

    2015-07-22

    The body size of the pale grass blue butterfly, Zizeeria maha, has been used as an environmental indicator of radioactive pollution caused by the Fukushima nuclear accident. However, geographical and temporal size distributions in Japan and temperature effects on size have not been established in this species. Here, we examined the geographical, temporal, and temperature-dependent changes of the forewing size of Z. maha argia in Japan. Butterflies collected in 2012 and 2013 from multiple prefectures throughout Japan demonstrated an inverse relationship of latitude and forewing size, which is the reverse of Bergmann's cline. The Fukushima population was significantly larger than the Aomori and Miyagi populations and exhibited no difference from most of the other prefectural populations. When monitored at a single geographic locality every other month, forewing sizes were the largest in April and the smallest in August. Rearing larvae at a constant temperature demonstrated that forewing size followed the temperature-size rule. Therefore, the converse Bergmann's rule and the temperature-size rule coexist in this multivoltine species. Our study establishes this species as a useful environmental indicator and supports the idea that the size reduction observed only in Fukushima Prefecture in 2011 was caused by the environmental stress of radioactive pollution.

  9. Body size distributions of the pale grass blue butterfly in Japan: Size rules and the status of the Fukushima population

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taira, Wataru; Iwasaki, Mayo; Otaki, Joji M.

    2015-07-01

    The body size of the pale grass blue butterfly, Zizeeria maha, has been used as an environmental indicator of radioactive pollution caused by the Fukushima nuclear accident. However, geographical and temporal size distributions in Japan and temperature effects on size have not been established in this species. Here, we examined the geographical, temporal, and temperature-dependent changes of the forewing size of Z. maha argia in Japan. Butterflies collected in 2012 and 2013 from multiple prefectures throughout Japan demonstrated an inverse relationship of latitude and forewing size, which is the reverse of Bergmann’s cline. The Fukushima population was significantly larger than the Aomori and Miyagi populations and exhibited no difference from most of the other prefectural populations. When monitored at a single geographic locality every other month, forewing sizes were the largest in April and the smallest in August. Rearing larvae at a constant temperature demonstrated that forewing size followed the temperature-size rule. Therefore, the converse Bergmann’s rule and the temperature-size rule coexist in this multivoltine species. Our study establishes this species as a useful environmental indicator and supports the idea that the size reduction observed only in Fukushima Prefecture in 2011 was caused by the environmental stress of radioactive pollution.

  10. Body size distributions of the pale grass blue butterfly in Japan: Size rules and the status of the Fukushima population

    PubMed Central

    Taira, Wataru; Iwasaki, Mayo; Otaki, Joji M.

    2015-01-01

    The body size of the pale grass blue butterfly, Zizeeria maha, has been used as an environmental indicator of radioactive pollution caused by the Fukushima nuclear accident. However, geographical and temporal size distributions in Japan and temperature effects on size have not been established in this species. Here, we examined the geographical, temporal, and temperature-dependent changes of the forewing size of Z. maha argia in Japan. Butterflies collected in 2012 and 2013 from multiple prefectures throughout Japan demonstrated an inverse relationship of latitude and forewing size, which is the reverse of Bergmann’s cline. The Fukushima population was significantly larger than the Aomori and Miyagi populations and exhibited no difference from most of the other prefectural populations. When monitored at a single geographic locality every other month, forewing sizes were the largest in April and the smallest in August. Rearing larvae at a constant temperature demonstrated that forewing size followed the temperature-size rule. Therefore, the converse Bergmann’s rule and the temperature-size rule coexist in this multivoltine species. Our study establishes this species as a useful environmental indicator and supports the idea that the size reduction observed only in Fukushima Prefecture in 2011 was caused by the environmental stress of radioactive pollution. PMID:26197998

  11. Body size distributions of the pale grass blue butterfly in Japan: Size rules and the status of the Fukushima population.

    PubMed

    Taira, Wataru; Iwasaki, Mayo; Otaki, Joji M

    2015-01-01

    The body size of the pale grass blue butterfly, Zizeeria maha, has been used as an environmental indicator of radioactive pollution caused by the Fukushima nuclear accident. However, geographical and temporal size distributions in Japan and temperature effects on size have not been established in this species. Here, we examined the geographical, temporal, and temperature-dependent changes of the forewing size of Z. maha argia in Japan. Butterflies collected in 2012 and 2013 from multiple prefectures throughout Japan demonstrated an inverse relationship of latitude and forewing size, which is the reverse of Bergmann's cline. The Fukushima population was significantly larger than the Aomori and Miyagi populations and exhibited no difference from most of the other prefectural populations. When monitored at a single geographic locality every other month, forewing sizes were the largest in April and the smallest in August. Rearing larvae at a constant temperature demonstrated that forewing size followed the temperature-size rule. Therefore, the converse Bergmann's rule and the temperature-size rule coexist in this multivoltine species. Our study establishes this species as a useful environmental indicator and supports the idea that the size reduction observed only in Fukushima Prefecture in 2011 was caused by the environmental stress of radioactive pollution. PMID:26197998

  12. Antarctic krill population genomics: apparent panmixia, but genome complexity and large population size muddy the water.

    PubMed

    Deagle, Bruce E; Faux, Cassandra; Kawaguchi, So; Meyer, Bettina; Jarman, Simon N

    2015-10-01

    Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba; hereafter krill) are an incredibly abundant pelagic crustacean which has a wide, but patchy, distribution in the Southern Ocean. Several studies have examined the potential for population genetic structuring in krill, but DNA-based analyses have focused on a limited number of markers and have covered only part of their circum-Antarctic range. We used mitochondrial DNA and restriction site-associated DNA sequencing (RAD-seq) to investigate genetic differences between krill from five sites, including two from East Antarctica. Our mtDNA results show no discernible genetic structuring between sites separated by thousands of kilometres, which is consistent with previous studies. Using standard RAD-seq methodology, we obtained over a billion sequences from >140 krill, and thousands of variable nucleotides were identified at hundreds of loci. However, downstream analysis found that markers with sufficient coverage were primarily from multicopy genomic regions. Careful examination of these data highlights the complexity of the RAD-seq approach in organisms with very large genomes. To characterize the multicopy markers, we recorded sequence counts from variable nucleotide sites rather than the derived genotypes; we also examined a small number of manually curated genotypes. Although these analyses effectively fingerprinted individuals, and uncovered a minor laboratory batch effect, no population structuring was observed. Overall, our results are consistent with panmixia of krill throughout their distribution. This result may indicate ongoing gene flow. However, krill's enormous population size creates substantial panmictic inertia, so genetic differentiation may not occur on an ecologically relevant timescale even if demographically separate populations exist.

  13. Both population size and patch quality affect local extinctions and colonizations.

    PubMed

    Franzén, Markus; Nilsson, Sven G

    2010-01-01

    Currently, the habitat of many species is fragmented, resulting in small local populations with individuals occasionally dispersing between the remaining habitat patches. In a solitary bee metapopulation, extinction probability was related to both local bee population sizes and pollen resources measured as host plant population size. Patch size, on the other hand, had no additional predictive power. The turnover rate of local bee populations in 63 habitat patches over 4 years was high, with 72 extinction events and 31 colonization events, but the pollen plant population was stable with no extinctions or colonizations. Both pollen resources and bee populations had strong and independent effects on extinction probability, but connectivity was not of importance. Colonizations occurred more frequently within larger host plant populations. For metapopulation survival of the bee, large pollen plant populations are essential, independent of current bee population size.

  14. Eco-evolutionary dynamics: fluctuations in population growth rate reduce effective population size in chinook salmon.

    PubMed

    Waples, Robin S; Jensen, David W; McClure, Michelle

    2010-03-01

    We empirically assess the relationship between population growth rate (lambda, a parameter central to ecology) and effective population size (N(e), a key parameter in evolutionary biology). Recent theoretical and numerical studies indicate that in semelparous species with variable age at maturity (such as Pacific salmon, many monocarpic plants, and various other species), differences in mean reproductive success among individuals reproducing in different years leads to variation in lambda, and this in turn can reduce N(e). However, this phenomenon has received little empirical evaluation. We examined time series of abundance data for 56 populations of chinook salmon (Onchorhynchus tshawytscha) from the northwestern United States and compared N(e) (calculated from demographic data) with the total number of spawners each generation (NT). Important results include: (1) The mean multigenerational ratio N(e)/N(T) was 0.64 (median = 0.67), indicating that annual variation in lambda reduces effective population size in chinook salmon by an average of approximately 35%. These reductions are independent of, and in addition to, factors that reduce N(e) within individual cohorts (uneven sex ratio and greater-than-random variance in reproductive success). (2) The coefficient of variation of lambda was the most important factor associated with reductions in N(e), explaining up to two-thirds of the variance in N(e)/N(T). (3) Within individual generations, N(e) was lower when there was a negative correlation between annual N(i) and lambda, i.e., when relatively few breeders produced relatively high numbers of offspring. Our results thus highlight an important and little-studied eco-evolutionary trade-off: density-dependent compensation has generally favorable ecological consequences (promoting stability and long-term viability) but incurs an evolutionary cost (reducing N(e) because a few individuals make a disproportionate genetic contribution). (4) For chinook salmon, N(eH) (an

  15. Determining size and dispersion of minimum viable populations for land management planning and species conservation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lehmkuhl, John F.

    1984-03-01

    The concept of minimum populations of wildlife and plants has only recently been discussed in the literature. Population genetics has emerged as a basic underlying criterion for determining minimum population size. This paper presents a genetic framework and procedure for determining minimum viable population size and dispersion strategies in the context of multiple-use land management planning. A procedure is presented for determining minimum population size based on maintenance of genetic heterozygosity and reduction of inbreeding. A minimum effective population size ( N e ) of 50 breeding animals is taken from the literature as the minimum shortterm size to keep inbreeding below 1% per generation. Steps in the procedure adjust N e to account for variance in progeny number, unequal sex ratios, overlapping generations, population fluctuations, and period of habitat/population constraint. The result is an approximate census number that falls within a range of effective population size of 50 500 individuals. This population range defines the time range of short- to long-term population fitness and evolutionary potential. The length of the term is a relative function of the species generation time. Two population dispersion strategies are proposed: core population and dispersed population.

  16. Population size is weakly related to quantitative genetic variation and trait differentiation in a stream fish.

    PubMed

    Wood, Jacquelyn L A; Tezel, Defne; Joyal, Destin; Fraser, Dylan J

    2015-09-01

    How population size influences quantitative genetic variation and differentiation among natural, fragmented populations remains unresolved. Small, isolated populations might occupy poor quality habitats and lose genetic variation more rapidly due to genetic drift than large populations. Genetic drift might furthermore overcome selection as population size decreases. Collectively, this might result in directional changes in additive genetic variation (VA ) and trait differentiation (QST ) from small to large population size. Alternatively, small populations might exhibit larger variation in VA and QST if habitat fragmentation increases variability in habitat types. We explored these alternatives by investigating VA and QST using nine fragmented populations of brook trout varying 50-fold in census size N (179-8416) and 10-fold in effective number of breeders, Nb (18-135). Across 15 traits, no evidence was found for consistent differences in VA and QST with population size and almost no evidence for increased variability of VA or QST estimates at small population size. This suggests that (i) small populations of some species may retain adaptive potential according to commonly adopted quantitative genetic measures and (ii) populations of varying sizes experience a variety of environmental conditions in nature, however extremely large studies are likely required before any firm conclusions can be made. PMID:26207947

  17. Population size and the nature of genetic load in Gentianella germanica.

    PubMed

    Paland, Susanne; Schmid, Bernhard

    2003-10-01

    Theory predicts a significant relationship between the size of a population and the magnitude and composition of its genetic load, but few natural populations have been investigated. We examined the magnitude of genetic load due to recessive deleterious alleles (GL) both segregating and fixed within Gentianella germanica populations of varying size by selfing and reciprocally crossing plants within and between natural populations according to a partial diallel design and by comparing the performance of the experimental progeny in a common-garden experiment. The results show that GL for total fitness in small populations (fewer than 200 plants) was mainly due to fixed recessive deleterious alleles, whereas GL for total fitness in larger populations (more than 200 plants) appeared to be mainly due to segregating deleterious recessive alleles. The total fitness of selfed plants increased with decreasing population size, indicating some purging of deleterious alleles associated with declining population sizes. The magnitudes of GL due to fixed deleterious alleles in small populations and segregating deleterious alleles in large populations, however, were overall similar, suggesting that purging selection was an insignificant force when compared to genetic drift in determining the magnitude of GL in small natural populations in this species. The results of this study highlight the importance of population size in determining the dynamics of genetic loads of natural populations and are overall in line with a large body of theoretical work indicating that small populations may face higher extinction risks due to the fixation and accumulation of deleterious alleles of small effect.

  18. An aerial sightability model for estimating ferruginous hawk population size

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ayers, L.W.; Anderson, S.H.

    1999-01-01

    Most raptor aerial survey projects have focused on numeric description of visibility bias without identifying the contributing factors or developing predictive models to account for imperfect detection rates. Our goal was to develop a sightability model for nesting ferruginous hawks (Buteo regalis) that could account for nests missed during aerial surveys and provide more accurate population estimates. Eighteen observers, all unfamiliar with nest locations in a known population, searched for nests within 300 m of flight transects via a Maule fixed-wing aircraft. Flight variables tested for their influence on nest-detection rates included aircraft speed, height, direction of travel, time of day, light condition, distance to nest, and observer experience level. Nest variables included status (active vs. inactive), condition (i.e., excellent, good, fair, poor, bad), substrate type, topography, and tree density. A multiple logistic regression model identified nest substrate type, distance to nest, and observer experience level as significant predictors of detection rates (P < 0.05). The overall model was significant (??26 = 124.4, P < 0.001, n = 255 nest observations), and the correct classification rate was 78.4%. During 2 validation surveys, observers saw 23.7% (14/59) and 36.5% (23/63) of the actual population. Sightability model predictions, with 90% confidence intervals, captured the true population in both tests. Our results indicate standardized aerial surveys, when used in conjunction with the predictive sightability model, can provide unbiased population estimates for nesting ferruginous hawks.

  19. Loss of microsatellite diversity and low effective population size in an overexploited population of New Zealand snapper (Pagrus auratus).

    PubMed

    Hauser, Lorenz; Adcock, Greg J; Smith, Peter J; Ramiréz, Julio H Bernal; Carvalho, Gary R

    2002-09-01

    Although the effects of overfishing on species diversity and abundance are well documented, threats to the genetic diversity of marine fish populations have so far been largely neglected. Indeed, there seems to be little cause for concern, as even "collapsed" stocks usually consist of several million individuals, whereas population genetics theory suggests that only very small populations suffer significant loss of genetic diversity. On the other hand, in many marine species the genetically effective population size (N(e)), which determines the genetic properties of a population, may be orders of magnitude smaller than the census population size (N). Here, microsatellite analyses of a time series of archived scales demonstrated a significant decline in genetic diversity in a New Zealand snapper population during its exploitation history. Effective population sizes estimated both from the decline in heterozygosity and from temporal fluctuations in allele frequency were five orders of magnitude smaller than census population sizes from fishery data. If such low N(e)/N ratios are commonplace in marine species, many exploited marine fish stocks may be in danger of losing genetic variability, potentially resulting in reduced adaptability, population persistence, and productivity.

  20. Estimating population size of Pygoscelid Penguins from TM data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Olson, Charles E., Jr.; Schwaller, Mathew R.; Dahmer, Paul A.

    1987-01-01

    An estimate was made toward a continent wide population of penguins. The results indicate that Thematic Mapper data can be used to identify penguin rookeries due to the unique reflectance properties of guano. Strong correlations exist between nesting populations and rookery area occupied by the birds. These correlations allow estimation of the number of nesting pairs in colonies. The success of remote sensing and biometric analyses leads one to believe that a continent wide estimate of penguin populations is possible based on a timely sample employing ground based and remote sensing techniques. Satellite remote sensing along the coastline may well locate previously undiscovered penguin nesting sites, or locate rookeries which have been assumed to exist for over a half century, but never located. Observations which found that penguins are one of the most sensitive elements in the complex of Southern Ocean ecosystems motivated this study.

  1. Absolute Summ

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Phillips, Alfred, Jr.

    Summ means the entirety of the multiverse. It seems clear, from the inflation theories of A. Guth and others, that the creation of many universes is plausible. We argue that Absolute cosmological ideas, not unlike those of I. Newton, may be consistent with dynamic multiverse creations. As suggested in W. Heisenberg's uncertainty principle, and with the Anthropic Principle defended by S. Hawking, et al., human consciousness, buttressed by findings of neuroscience, may have to be considered in our models. Predictability, as A. Einstein realized with Invariants and General Relativity, may be required for new ideas to be part of physics. We present here a two postulate model geared to an Absolute Summ. The seedbed of this work is part of Akhnaton's philosophy (see S. Freud, Moses and Monotheism). Most important, however, is that the structure of human consciousness, manifest in Kenya's Rift Valley 200,000 years ago as Homo sapiens, who were the culmination of the six million year co-creation process of Hominins and Nature in Africa, allows us to do the physics that we do. .

  2. Population size of snowy plovers breeding in North America

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thomas, Susan M.; Lyons, James E.; Andres, Brad A.; T-Smith, Elise Elliot; Palacios, Eduardo; Cavitt, John F.; Royle, J. Andrew; Fellows, Suzanne D.; Maty, Kendra; Howe, William H.; Mellink, Eric; Melvin, Stefani; Zimmerman, Tara

    2012-01-01

    Snowy Plovers (Charadrius nivosus) may be one of the rarest shorebirds in North America yet a comprehensive assessment of their abundance and distribution has not been completed. During 2007 and 2008, 557 discrete wetlands were surveyed and nine additional large wetland complexes sampled in México and the USA. From these surveys, a population of 23,555 (95% CI = 17,299 – 29,859) breeding Snowy Plovers was estimated. Combining the estimate with information from areas not surveyed, the total North American population was assessed at 25,869 (95% CI = 18,917 – 32,173). Approximately 42% of all breeding Snowy Plovers in North America resided at two sites (Great Salt Lake, Utah, and Salt Plains National Wildlife Refuge, Oklahoma), and 33% of all these were on wetlands in the Great Basin (including Great Salt Lake). Also, coastal habitats in central and southern Texas supported large numbers of breeding plovers. New breeding sites were discovered in interior deserts and highlands and along the Pacific coast of México; approximately 9% of the North American breeding population occurred in México. Because of uncertainties about effects of climate change and current stresses to breeding habitats, the species should be a management and conservation priority. Periodic monitoring should be undertaken at important sites to ensure high quality habitat is available to support the Snowy Plover population.

  3. Cohort Size and Migration in a West Indian Population.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brittain, Ann W.

    1990-01-01

    Data from St. Barthelemy (French West Indies) show that, for people born from 1878 to 1967, neither cohort size nor fluctuations in external demands for labor had a lasting effect on the probability of eventual migration. Emigration slowed only after development of local tourism brought prosperity to the island. (AF)

  4. Application of two versions of the WHO/international society of hypertension absolute cardiovascular risk assessment tools in a rural Bangladeshi population

    PubMed Central

    Fatema, Kaniz; Zwar, Nicholas Arnold; Milton, Abul Hasnat; Rahman, Bayzidur; Ali, Liaquat

    2015-01-01

    Objectives To estimate the absolute cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk burden in a remote rural Bangladeshi population using the ‘With’ and ‘Without’ Cholesterol versions of the WHO/International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) CVD risk assessment chart (particularly suitable for low and middle-income countries due to less reliance on laboratory testing) and to evaluate the agreement between the two approaches. Design Cross-sectional study using data from a large prospective cohort of the North Bengal Non-Communicable Disease Programme (NB-NCDP) of Bangladesh. Setting General rural population from Thakurgaon district of Bangladesh. Participants 563 individuals who were categorised as having ‘no CVDs’ on screening by a questionnaire-based survey using the ‘WHO CVD-Risk Management Package’ developed in 2002. Main outcome measures Absolute CVD risk burden assessed using two versions of the WHO/ISH risk assessment charts for the South-East Asian Region-D. Results 10-year risk (moderate, high and very high) positivity was present among 21.5% and 20.2% of participants, respectively, using with and without cholesterol versions of the tool. The overall concordance rate for the two versions was 89.5% and they did not differ significantly in estimating the proportion of overall participants having higher levels of CVD. The projected drug requirement, however, showed a significant overestimation in the proportion of participants at both the threshold levels (p<0.002) on using ‘without’ as compared to ‘with’ cholesterol versions. Conclusions About one-fifth of the adult population in Bangladesh, even in a remote rural area, seem to be at risk of developing CVDs (25% of them at high risk and 25% at very high risk) within 10 years with males and females being almost equally vulnerable. PMID:26463220

  5. The Relationship between the Proportional Size of the Special Education Population and Academic Achievement

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harper, Patricia Kenner

    2013-01-01

    This investigation addressed the hypothesized effects of the proportional size of a district's special education population on the overall student achievement in selected school districts in Texas. The size of a district's special education population (independent variable) was compared to districts' achievement (dependent…

  6. Effect of reference population size and available ancestor genotypes on imputation of Mexican Holstein genotypes

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The effects of reference population size and the availability of information from genotyped ancestors on the accuracy of imputation of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were investigated for Mexican Holstein cattle. Three scenarios for reference population size were examined: (1) a local popula...

  7. Noninvasive genetics provides insights into the population size and genetic diversity of an Amur tiger population in China.

    PubMed

    Wang, Dan; Hu, Yibo; Ma, Tianxiao; Nie, Yonggang; Xie, Yan; Wei, Fuwen

    2016-01-01

    Understanding population size and genetic diversity is critical for effective conservation of endangered species. The Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) is the largest felid and a flagship species for wildlife conservation. Due to habitat loss and human activities, available habitat and population size are continuously shrinking. However, little is known about the true population size and genetic diversity of wild tiger populations in China. In this study, we collected 55 fecal samples and 1 hair sample to investigate the population size and genetic diversity of wild Amur tigers in Hunchun National Nature Reserve, Jilin Province, China. From the samples, we determined that 23 fecal samples and 1 hair sample were from 7 Amur tigers: 2 males, 4 females and 1 individual of unknown sex. Interestingly, 2 fecal samples that were presumed to be from tigers were from Amur leopards, highlighting the significant advantages of noninvasive genetics over traditional methods in studying rare and elusive animals. Analyses from this sample suggested that the genetic diversity of wild Amur tigers is much lower than that of Bengal tigers, consistent with previous findings. Furthermore, the genetic diversity of this Hunchun population in China was lower than that of the adjoining subpopulation in southwest Primorye Russia, likely due to sampling bias. Considering the small population size and relatively low genetic diversity, it is urgent to protect this endangered local subpopulation in China.

  8. Noninvasive genetics provides insights into the population size and genetic diversity of an Amur tiger population in China.

    PubMed

    Wang, Dan; Hu, Yibo; Ma, Tianxiao; Nie, Yonggang; Xie, Yan; Wei, Fuwen

    2016-01-01

    Understanding population size and genetic diversity is critical for effective conservation of endangered species. The Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) is the largest felid and a flagship species for wildlife conservation. Due to habitat loss and human activities, available habitat and population size are continuously shrinking. However, little is known about the true population size and genetic diversity of wild tiger populations in China. In this study, we collected 55 fecal samples and 1 hair sample to investigate the population size and genetic diversity of wild Amur tigers in Hunchun National Nature Reserve, Jilin Province, China. From the samples, we determined that 23 fecal samples and 1 hair sample were from 7 Amur tigers: 2 males, 4 females and 1 individual of unknown sex. Interestingly, 2 fecal samples that were presumed to be from tigers were from Amur leopards, highlighting the significant advantages of noninvasive genetics over traditional methods in studying rare and elusive animals. Analyses from this sample suggested that the genetic diversity of wild Amur tigers is much lower than that of Bengal tigers, consistent with previous findings. Furthermore, the genetic diversity of this Hunchun population in China was lower than that of the adjoining subpopulation in southwest Primorye Russia, likely due to sampling bias. Considering the small population size and relatively low genetic diversity, it is urgent to protect this endangered local subpopulation in China. PMID:26663614

  9. Estimating total population size for adult female sea turtles: Accounting for non-nesters

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kendall, W.L.; Richardson, J.I.; Rees, Alan F.

    2008-01-01

    Assessment of population size and changes therein is important to sea turtle management and population or life history research. Investigators might be interested in testing hypotheses about the effect of current population size or density (number of animals per unit resource) on future population processes. Decision makers might want to determine a level of allowable take of individual turtles of specified life stage. Nevertheless, monitoring most stages of sea turtle life histories is difficult, because obtaining access to individuals is difficult. Although in-water assessments are becoming more common, nesting females and their hatchlings remain the most accessible life stages. In some cases adult females of a given nesting population are sufficiently philopatric that the population itself can be well defined. If a well designed tagging study is conducted on this population, survival, breeding probability, and the size of the nesting population in a given year can be estimated. However, with published statistical methodology the size of the entire breeding population (including those females skipping nesting in that year) cannot be estimated without assuming that each adult female in this population has the same probability of nesting in a given year (even those that had just nested in the previous year). We present a method for estimating the total size of a breeding population (including nesters those skipping nesting) from a tagging study limited to the nesting population, allowing for the probability of nesting in a given year to depend on an individual's nesting status in the previous year (i.e., a Markov process). From this we further develop estimators for rate of growth from year to year in both nesting population and total breeding population, and the proportion of the breeding population that is breeding in a given year. We also discuss assumptions and apply these methods to a breeding population of hawksbill sea turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata) from

  10. Does population size affect genetic diversity? A test with sympatric lizard species.

    PubMed

    Hague, M T J; Routman, E J

    2016-01-01

    Genetic diversity is a fundamental requirement for evolution and adaptation. Nonetheless, the forces that maintain patterns of genetic variation in wild populations are not completely understood. Neutral theory posits that genetic diversity will increase with a larger effective population size and the decreasing effects of drift. However, the lack of compelling evidence for a relationship between genetic diversity and population size in comparative studies has generated some skepticism over the degree that neutral sequence evolution drives overall patterns of diversity. The goal of this study was to measure genetic diversity among sympatric populations of related lizard species that differ in population size and other ecological factors. By sampling related species from a single geographic location, we aimed to reduce nuisance variance in genetic diversity owing to species differences, for example, in mutation rates or historical biogeography. We compared populations of zebra-tailed lizards and western banded geckos, which are abundant and short-lived, to chuckwallas and desert iguanas, which are less common and long-lived. We assessed population genetic diversity at three protein-coding loci for each species. Our results were consistent with the predictions of neutral theory, as the abundant species almost always had higher levels of haplotype diversity than the less common species. Higher population genetic diversity in the abundant species is likely due to a combination of demographic factors, including larger local population sizes (and presumably effective population sizes), faster generation times and high rates of gene flow with other populations.

  11. Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador: Geographic Distribution, Population Size and Extinction Risk.

    PubMed

    Naveda-Rodríguez, Adrián; Vargas, Félix Hernán; Kohn, Sebastián; Zapata-Ríos, Galo

    2016-01-01

    The Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador is classified as Critically Endangered. Before 2015, standardized and systematic estimates of geographic distribution, population size and structure were not available for this species, hampering the assessment of its current status and hindering the design and implementation of effective conservation actions. In this study, we performed the first quantitative assessment of geographic distribution, population size and population viability of Andean Condor in Ecuador. We used a methodological approach that included an ecological niche model to study geographic distribution, a simultaneous survey of 70 roosting sites to estimate population size and a population viability analysis (PVA) for the next 100 years. Geographic distribution in the form of extent of occurrence was 49 725 km2. During a two-day census, 93 Andean Condors were recorded and a population of 94 to 102 individuals was estimated. In this population, adult-to-immature ratio was 1:0.5. In the modeled PVA scenarios, the probability of extinction, mean time to extinction and minimum population size varied from zero to 100%, 63 years and 193 individuals, respectively. Habitat loss is the greatest threat to the conservation of Andean Condor populations in Ecuador. Population size reduction in scenarios that included habitat loss began within the first 15 years of this threat. Population reinforcement had no effects on the recovery of Andean Condor populations given the current status of the species in Ecuador. The population size estimate presented in this study is the lower than those reported previously in other countries where the species occur. The inferences derived from the population viability analysis have implications for Condor management in Ecuador. This study highlights the need to redirect efforts from captive breeding and population reinforcement to habitat conservation. PMID:26986004

  12. Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador: Geographic Distribution, Population Size and Extinction Risk

    PubMed Central

    Naveda-Rodríguez, Adrián; Vargas, Félix Hernán; Kohn, Sebastián; Zapata-Ríos, Galo

    2016-01-01

    The Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador is classified as Critically Endangered. Before 2015, standardized and systematic estimates of geographic distribution, population size and structure were not available for this species, hampering the assessment of its current status and hindering the design and implementation of effective conservation actions. In this study, we performed the first quantitative assessment of geographic distribution, population size and population viability of Andean Condor in Ecuador. We used a methodological approach that included an ecological niche model to study geographic distribution, a simultaneous survey of 70 roosting sites to estimate population size and a population viability analysis (PVA) for the next 100 years. Geographic distribution in the form of extent of occurrence was 49 725 km2. During a two-day census, 93 Andean Condors were recorded and a population of 94 to 102 individuals was estimated. In this population, adult-to-immature ratio was 1:0.5. In the modeled PVA scenarios, the probability of extinction, mean time to extinction and minimum population size varied from zero to 100%, 63 years and 193 individuals, respectively. Habitat loss is the greatest threat to the conservation of Andean Condor populations in Ecuador. Population size reduction in scenarios that included habitat loss began within the first 15 years of this threat. Population reinforcement had no effects on the recovery of Andean Condor populations given the current status of the species in Ecuador. The population size estimate presented in this study is the lower than those reported previously in other countries where the species occur. The inferences derived from the population viability analysis have implications for Condor management in Ecuador. This study highlights the need to redirect efforts from captive breeding and population reinforcement to habitat conservation. PMID:26986004

  13. Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador: Geographic Distribution, Population Size and Extinction Risk.

    PubMed

    Naveda-Rodríguez, Adrián; Vargas, Félix Hernán; Kohn, Sebastián; Zapata-Ríos, Galo

    2016-01-01

    The Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador is classified as Critically Endangered. Before 2015, standardized and systematic estimates of geographic distribution, population size and structure were not available for this species, hampering the assessment of its current status and hindering the design and implementation of effective conservation actions. In this study, we performed the first quantitative assessment of geographic distribution, population size and population viability of Andean Condor in Ecuador. We used a methodological approach that included an ecological niche model to study geographic distribution, a simultaneous survey of 70 roosting sites to estimate population size and a population viability analysis (PVA) for the next 100 years. Geographic distribution in the form of extent of occurrence was 49 725 km2. During a two-day census, 93 Andean Condors were recorded and a population of 94 to 102 individuals was estimated. In this population, adult-to-immature ratio was 1:0.5. In the modeled PVA scenarios, the probability of extinction, mean time to extinction and minimum population size varied from zero to 100%, 63 years and 193 individuals, respectively. Habitat loss is the greatest threat to the conservation of Andean Condor populations in Ecuador. Population size reduction in scenarios that included habitat loss began within the first 15 years of this threat. Population reinforcement had no effects on the recovery of Andean Condor populations given the current status of the species in Ecuador. The population size estimate presented in this study is the lower than those reported previously in other countries where the species occur. The inferences derived from the population viability analysis have implications for Condor management in Ecuador. This study highlights the need to redirect efforts from captive breeding and population reinforcement to habitat conservation.

  14. Mortality during epizootics in bighorn sheep: effects of initial population size and cause.

    PubMed

    Cassaigne G, Ivonne; Medellín, Rodrigo A; Guasco O, José A

    2010-07-01

    One of the most severe threats to bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) populations is disease. With the objective of projecting possible epizootic consequences to bighorn sheep population dynamics, we examined 23 epizootic mortality episodes from presumably known causes that occurred in the United States and Canada from 1942 to 2005. These outbreaks were correlated with population size using regression models. Epizootic origins were documented by considering contact with a "new" pathogen for the bighorn sheep population or pneumonic processes, presumably triggered by stress. We suggest mortality rates are negatively related to population size in a logarithmic function, and offer a model to estimate the percentage of disease-related mortalities for a given population size of bighorn sheep. From a disease dynamics perspective, we suggest a minimum population of 188 bighorn sheep would be required to insure long-term persistence in the presence of epizootic disease.

  15. Size-at-birth standards for an urban Canadian population.

    PubMed Central

    Blidner, I. N.; McClemont, S.; Anderson, G. D.; Sinclair, J. C.

    1984-01-01

    By random sampling of all births occurring in Hamilton, Ont. over an 18-month period the percentile distributions of the newborn infants' weight, length, and head and chest circumferences were determined. The resulting standards may be used in the clinical evaluation of size for gestational age. The smoothed 50th percentile values for newborns of 40 weeks gestational age were as follows for boys and girls respectively: birth weight 3530 and 3355 g, crown-heel length 52.0 and 51.3 cm, head circumference 35.2 and 34.4 cm, and chest circumference 33.4 and 32.8 cm. The mother's height averaged 160.8 +/- 6.1 cm and her weight before the pregnancy 59.2 +/- 10.5 kg. The prevalence of cigarette smoking during pregnancy was 34.8%. PMID:6692192

  16. Needle Size and Injection Rate Impact Microbubble Contrast Agent Population

    PubMed Central

    Talu, Esra; Powell, Robert L.; Longo, Marjorie L.; Dayton, Paul A.

    2008-01-01

    The most common type of ultrasound contrast agents are encapsulated microbubbles, typically 1–5 microns in diameter. These microbubbles are injected into the bloodstream to provide image enhancement during an ultrasound exam. Due to their compressibility, these microbubbles are inherently sensitive to changes in pressure. For imaging, this is beneficial in that these microbubbles oscillate in an acoustic field and allow imaging systems to detect their response uniquely from tissue. However, this sensitivity also means that microbubbles can be readily destroyed by significant hydrostatic pressure. Injection of these microbubbles through a small-gauge catheter, such as sometimes performed in small animal imaging studies, can result in microbubble destruction. In this manuscript, the effects of microbubble injection through catheters of varying diameter are examined. Our results indicate that the concentration and size distribution of microbubbles can be substantially altered in cases of rapid injection through small needles. PMID:18295967

  17. Determining asymptotically large population sizes in insect swarms

    PubMed Central

    Puckett, James G.; Ouellette, Nicholas T.

    2014-01-01

    Social animals commonly form aggregates that exhibit emergent collective behaviour, with group dynamics that are distinct from the behaviour of individuals. Simple models can qualitatively reproduce such behaviour, but only with large numbers of individuals. But how rapidly do the collective properties of animal aggregations in nature emerge with group size? Here, we study swarms of Chironomus riparius midges and measure how their statistical properties change as a function of the number of participating individuals. Once the swarms contain order 10 individuals, we find that all statistics saturate and the swarms enter an asymptotic regime. The influence of environmental cues on the swarm morphology decays on a similar scale. Our results provide a strong constraint on how rapidly swarm models must produce collective states. But our findings support the feasibility of using swarms as a design template for multi-agent systems, because self-organized states are possible even with few agents. PMID:25121646

  18. Absolute Populations of Highly Vibrationally Excited OH(υ=8 + υ=9) in the Night Mesopause Region Derived from the TIMED/SABER Instrument from 2002 to 2010

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mast, J. C.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Marshall, B. T.; Thompson, R. E.; Mertens, C. J.; Hunt, L. A.; Russell, J. M.; Gordley, L. L.

    2011-12-01

    We present global distributions of v = 9 + v = 8 nighttime vibrationally excited hydroxyl concentrations as measured by the SABER instrument on board the TIMED spacecraft. These states are formed directly by the reaction of atomic hydrogen and ozone in the terrestrial mesopause region. SABER measures the limb radiance from the delta-v = 2 transitions in a channel centered near 2.0 um, specifically the sum of the 9 -> 7 and 8 -> 6 transitions. The limb radiances are inverted to yield the volume emission rates from the sum of the v = 8 and 9 states of the hydroxyl molecule. The Einstein coefficients for spontaneous emission for these two transitions are essentially identical. Thus dividing the derived volume emission rate by the Einstein coefficient yields the absolute populations of these states (molecules per cubic cm). Nine full years of data are presented in this paper. Over this time the globally averaged OH(v = 8 + v = 9) populations have varied relative to the nine year mean by only a few percent. We conclude that despite substantial solar variability over this time period, the apparently small variation of the highly vibrationally excited hydroxyl populations implies that atomic hydrogen, atomic oxygen, temperature, and density adjust in such a way so as to keep the product of the atomic hydrogen concentration, the ozone concentration, and the rate coefficient for their reaction essentially constant.

  19. Accuracy of Four Tooth Size Prediction Methods on Malay Population

    PubMed Central

    Mahmoud, Belal Khaled; Abu Asab, Saifeddin Hamed I.; Taib, Haslina

    2012-01-01

    Objective. To examine the accuracy of Moyers 50%, Tanaka and Johnston, Ling and Wong and Jaroontham and Godfrey methods in predicting the mesio-distal crown width of the permanent canines and premolars (C + P1 + P2) in Malay population. Materials and Methods. The study models of 240 Malay children (120 males and 120 females) aged 14 to 18 years, all free of any signs of dental pathology or anomalies, were measured using a digital caliper accurate to 0.01 mm. The predicted widths (C + P1 + P2) in both arches derived from the tested prediction equations were compared with the actual measured widths. Results. Moyers and Tanaka and Johnston methods showed significant difference between the actual and predicted widths of (C + P1 + P2) for both sexes. Ling and Wong method also showed statistically significant difference for males, however, there was no significant difference for females. Jaroontham and Godfrey method showed statistical significant difference for females, but the male values did not show any significant difference. Conclusion. For male Malay, the method proposed by Jaroontham and Godfrey for male Thai proved to be highly accurate. For female Malay, the method proposed by Ling and Wong for southern Chinese females proved to be highly accurate. PMID:23209918

  20. Estimation of the ancestral effective population sizes of African great apes under different selection regimes.

    PubMed

    Schrago, Carlos G

    2014-08-01

    Reliable estimates of ancestral effective population sizes are necessary to unveil the population-level phenomena that shaped the phylogeny and molecular evolution of the African great apes. Although several methods have previously been applied to infer ancestral effective population sizes, an analysis of the influence of the selective regime on the estimates of ancestral demography has not been thoroughly conducted. In this study, three independent data sets under different selective regimes were used were composed to tackle this issue. The results showed that selection had a significant impact on the estimates of ancestral effective population sizes of the African great apes. The inference of the ancestral demography of African great apes was affected by the selection regime. The effects, however, were not homogeneous along the ancestral populations of great apes. The effective population size of the ancestor of humans and chimpanzees was more impacted by the selection regime when compared to the same parameter in the ancestor of humans, chimpanzees and gorillas. Because the selection regime influenced the estimates of ancestral effective population size, it is reasonable to assume that a portion of the discrepancy found in previous studies that inferred the ancestral effective population size may be attributable to the differential action of selection on the genes sampled.

  1. Genome size differentiates co-occurring populations of the planktonic diatom Ditylum brightwellii (Bacillariophyta)

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Diatoms are one of the most species-rich groups of eukaryotic microbes known. Diatoms are also the only group of eukaryotic micro-algae with a diplontic life history, suggesting that the ancestral diatom switched to a life history dominated by a duplicated genome. A key mechanism of speciation among diatoms could be a propensity for additional stable genome duplications. Across eukaryotic taxa, genome size is directly correlated to cell size and inversely correlated to physiological rates. Differences in relative genome size, cell size, and acclimated growth rates were analyzed in isolates of the diatom Ditylum brightwellii. Ditylum brightwellii consists of two main populations with identical 18s rDNA sequences; one population is distributed globally at temperate latitudes and the second appears to be localized to the Pacific Northwest coast of the USA. These two populations co-occur within the Puget Sound estuary of WA, USA, although their peak abundances differ depending on local conditions. Results All isolates from the more regionally-localized population (population 2) possessed 1.94 ± 0.74 times the amount of DNA, grew more slowly, and were generally larger than isolates from the more globally distributed population (population 1). The ITS1 sequences, cell sizes, and genome sizes of isolates from New Zealand were the same as population 1 isolates from Puget Sound, but their growth rates were within the range of the slower-growing population 2 isolates. Importantly, the observed genome size difference between isolates from the two populations was stable regardless of time in culture or the changes in cell size that accompany the diatom life history. Conclusions The observed two-fold difference in genome size between the D. brightwellii populations suggests that whole genome duplication occurred within cells of population 1 ultimately giving rise to population 2 cells. The apparent regional localization of population 2 is consistent with a recent

  2. A CATALOG OF GLOBULAR CLUSTER SYSTEMS: WHAT DETERMINES THE SIZE OF A GALAXY'S GLOBULAR CLUSTER POPULATION?

    SciTech Connect

    Harris, William E.; Alessi, Matthew; Harris, Gretchen L. H. E-mail: alessimj@mcmaster.ca

    2013-08-01

    We present a catalog of 422 galaxies with published measurements of their globular cluster (GC) populations. Of these, 248 are E galaxies, 93 are S0 galaxies, and 81 are spirals or irregulars. Among various correlations of the total number of GCs with other global galaxy properties, we find that N{sub GC} correlates well though nonlinearly with the dynamical mass of the galaxy bulge M{sub dyn}= 4{sigma}{sub e}{sup 2} R{sub e} /G, where {sigma}{sub e} is the central velocity dispersion and R{sub e} the effective radius of the galaxy light profile. We also present updated versions of the GC specific frequency S{sub N} and specific mass S{sub M} versus host galaxy luminosity and baryonic mass. These graphs exhibit the previously known U-shape: highest S{sub N} or S{sub M} values occur for either dwarfs or supergiants, but in the midrange of galaxy size (10{sup 9}-10{sup 10} L{sub Sun }) the GC numbers fall along a well-defined baseline value of S{sub N} {approx_equal} 1 or S{sub M} = 0.1, similar among all galaxy types. Along with other recent discussions, we suggest that this trend may represent the effects of feedback, which systematically inhibited early star formation at either very low or very high galaxy mass, but which had its minimum effect for intermediate masses. Our results strongly reinforce recent proposals that GC formation efficiency appears to be most nearly proportional to the galaxy halo mass M{sub halo}. The mean 'absolute' efficiency ratio for GC formation that we derive from the catalog data is M{sub GCS}/M{sub halo} = 6 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -5}. We suggest that the galaxy-to-galaxy scatter around this mean value may arise in part because of differences in the relative timing of GC formation versus field-star formation. Finally, we find that an excellent empirical predictor of total GC population for galaxies of all luminosities is N{sub GC} {approx} (R{sub e} {sigma}{sub e}){sup 1.3}, a result consistent with fundamental plane scaling

  3. Utility of microcosm studies for predicting phylloplane bacterium population sizes in the field.

    PubMed

    Kinkel, L L; Wilson, M; Lindow, S E

    1996-09-01

    Population sizes of two ice nucleation-active strains of Pseudomonas syringae were compared on leaves in controlled environments and in the field to determine the ability of microcosm studies to predict plant habitat preferences in the field. The P. syringae strains investigated were the parental strains of recombinant deletion mutant strains deficient in ice nucleation activity that had been field tested for their ability to control plant frost injury. The population size of the P. syringae strains was measured after inoculation at three field locations on up to 40 of the same plant species that were studied in the growth chamber. There was seldom a significant relationship between the mean population size of a given P. syringae strain incubated under either wet or dry conditions in microcosms and the mean population size which could be recovered from the same species when inoculated in the field. Specifically, on some plant species, the population size recovered from leaves in the field was substantially greater than from that species in a controlled environment, while for other plant species field populations were significantly smaller than those observed under controlled conditions. Population sizes of inoculated P. syringae strains, however, were frequently highly positively correlated with the indigenous bacterial population size on the same plant species in the field, suggesting that the ability of a particular plant species to support introduced bacterial strains is correlated with its ability to support large bacterial populations or that indigenous bacteria enhance the survival of introduced strains. Microcosm studies therefore seem most effective at assessing possible differences between parental and recombinant strains under a given environmental regime but are limited in their ability to predict the specific population sizes or plant habitat preferences of bacteria on leaves under field conditions. PMID:16535405

  4. The adaptive significance of population differentiation in offspring size of the least killifish, Heterandria formosa

    PubMed Central

    Leips, Jeff; Helen Rodd, F; Travis, Joseph

    2013-01-01

    We tested the hypothesis that density-dependent competition influences the evolution of offspring size. We studied two populations of the least killifish (Heterandria formosa) that differ dramatically in population density; these populations are genetically differentiated for offspring size, and females from both populations produce larger offspring when they experience higher social densities. To look at the influences of population of origin and relative body size on competitive ability, we held females from the high-density population at two different densities to create large and small offspring with the same genetic background. We measured the competitive ability of those offspring in mesocosms that contained either pure or mixed population treatments at either high or low density. High density increased competition, which was most evident in greatly reduced individual growth rates. Larger offspring from the high-density population significantly delayed the onset of maturity of fish from the low-density population. From our results, we infer that competitive conditions in nature have contributed to the evolution of genetically based interpopulation differences in offspring size as well as plasticity in offspring size in response to conspecific density. PMID:23610636

  5. The roles of spatial pattern and size variation in shaping height inequality of plant population.

    PubMed

    Chen, Shu-Yan; Chen, Zi-long; Guo, Peng; Ding, Chen-Chen; Wang, Yu-xin; Wang, Xiang-tai; Zhang, Jia-Lin; Jia, Peng; Wang, Gang; Xiao, Sa

    2014-02-01

    Game-theoretic models predict that there is an ESS height for the plant population to which all individual plants should converge. To attain this conclusion, the neighborhood factors were assumed to be equal for all the individual plants, and the spatial pattern and size variation of population were left without consideration, which is clearly not right for the scenario of plant competition. We constructed a spatially-explicit, individual-based model to explore the impacts of spatial structure and size variation on individual plant's height and population's height hierarchies under the light competition. The monomorphic equilibrium of height that all the individual plants will converge to only exists for a population growing in a strictly uniform spatial pattern with no size variation. When the spatial pattern of the population is non-uniform or there's size variation among individual plants, the critical heights that individual plants will finally reach are different from each other, and the height inequality at the end of population growth will increase when the population's spatial pattern's degree of deviation from uniform and population's size variation increase. Our results argue strongly for the importance of spatial pattern and neighborhood effects in generating the diversity of population's height growth pattern.

  6. Gaussian process-based Bayesian nonparametric inference of population size trajectories from gene genealogies.

    PubMed

    Palacios, Julia A; Minin, Vladimir N

    2013-03-01

    Changes in population size influence genetic diversity of the population and, as a result, leave a signature of these changes in individual genomes in the population. We are interested in the inverse problem of reconstructing past population dynamics from genomic data. We start with a standard framework based on the coalescent, a stochastic process that generates genealogies connecting randomly sampled individuals from the population of interest. These genealogies serve as a glue between the population demographic history and genomic sequences. It turns out that only the times of genealogical lineage coalescences contain information about population size dynamics. Viewing these coalescent times as a point process, estimating population size trajectories is equivalent to estimating a conditional intensity of this point process. Therefore, our inverse problem is similar to estimating an inhomogeneous Poisson process intensity function. We demonstrate how recent advances in Gaussian process-based nonparametric inference for Poisson processes can be extended to Bayesian nonparametric estimation of population size dynamics under the coalescent. We compare our Gaussian process (GP) approach to one of the state-of-the-art Gaussian Markov random field (GMRF) methods for estimating population trajectories. Using simulated data, we demonstrate that our method has better accuracy and precision. Next, we analyze two genealogies reconstructed from real sequences of hepatitis C and human Influenza A viruses. In both cases, we recover more believed aspects of the viral demographic histories than the GMRF approach. We also find that our GP method produces more reasonable uncertainty estimates than the GMRF method.

  7. Prediction of absolute risk of fragility fracture at 10 years in a Spanish population: validation of the WHO FRAX ™ tool in Spain

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Age-related bone loss is asymptomatic, and the morbidity of osteoporosis is secondary to the fractures that occur. Common sites of fracture include the spine, hip, forearm and proximal humerus. Fractures at the hip incur the greatest morbidity and mortality and give rise to the highest direct costs for health services. Their incidence increases exponentially with age. Independently changes in population demography, the age - and sex- specific incidence of osteoporotic fractures appears to be increasing in developing and developed countries. This could mean more than double the expected burden of osteoporotic fractures in the next 50 years. Methods/Design To assess the predictive power of the WHO FRAX™ tool to identify the subjects with the highest absolute risk of fragility fracture at 10 years in a Spanish population, a predictive validation study of the tool will be carried out. For this purpose, the participants recruited by 1999 will be assessed. These were referred to scan-DXA Department from primary healthcare centres, non hospital and hospital consultations. Study population: Patients attended in the national health services integrated into a FRIDEX cohort with at least one Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) measurement and one extensive questionnaire related to fracture risk factors. Measurements: At baseline bone mineral density measurement using DXA, clinical fracture risk factors questionnaire, dietary calcium intake assessment, history of previous fractures, and related drugs. Follow up by telephone interview to know fragility fractures in the 10 years with verification in electronic medical records and also to know the number of falls in the last year. The absolute risk of fracture will be estimated using the FRAX™ tool from the official web site. Discussion Since more than 10 years ago numerous publications have recognised the importance of other risk factors for new osteoporotic fractures in addition to low BMD. The extension of a

  8. Influence of habitat quality, population size, patch size, and connectivity on patch-occupancy dynamics of the middle spotted woodpecker.

    PubMed

    Robles, Hugo; Ciudad, Carlos

    2012-04-01

    Despite extensive research on the effects of habitat fragmentation, the ecological mechanisms underlying colonization and extinction processes are poorly known, but knowledge of these mechanisms is essential to understanding the distribution and persistence of populations in fragmented habitats. We examined these mechanisms through multiseason occupancy models that elucidated patch-occupancy dynamics of Middle Spotted Woodpeckers (Dendrocopos medius) in northwestern Spain. The number of occupied patches was relatively stable from 2000 to 2010 (15-24% of 101 patches occupied every year) because extinction was balanced by recolonization. Larger and higher quality patches (i.e., higher density of oaks >37 cm dbh [diameter at breast height]) were more likely to be occupied. Habitat quality (i.e., density of large oaks) explained more variation in patch colonization and extinction than did patch size and connectivity, which were both weakly associated with probabilities of turnover. Patches of higher quality were more likely to be colonized than patches of lower quality. Populations in high-quality patches were less likely to become extinct. In addition, extinction in a patch was strongly associated with local population size but not with patch size, which means the latter may not be a good surrogate of population size in assessments of extinction probability. Our results suggest that habitat quality may be a primary driver of patch-occupancy dynamics and may increase the accuracy of models of population survival. We encourage comparisons of competing models that assess occupancy, colonization, and extinction probabilities in a single analytical framework (e.g., dynamic occupancy models) so as to shed light on the association of habitat quality and patch geometry with colonization and extinction processes in different settings and species. PMID:22268847

  9. Influence of habitat quality, population size, patch size, and connectivity on patch-occupancy dynamics of the middle spotted woodpecker.

    PubMed

    Robles, Hugo; Ciudad, Carlos

    2012-04-01

    Despite extensive research on the effects of habitat fragmentation, the ecological mechanisms underlying colonization and extinction processes are poorly known, but knowledge of these mechanisms is essential to understanding the distribution and persistence of populations in fragmented habitats. We examined these mechanisms through multiseason occupancy models that elucidated patch-occupancy dynamics of Middle Spotted Woodpeckers (Dendrocopos medius) in northwestern Spain. The number of occupied patches was relatively stable from 2000 to 2010 (15-24% of 101 patches occupied every year) because extinction was balanced by recolonization. Larger and higher quality patches (i.e., higher density of oaks >37 cm dbh [diameter at breast height]) were more likely to be occupied. Habitat quality (i.e., density of large oaks) explained more variation in patch colonization and extinction than did patch size and connectivity, which were both weakly associated with probabilities of turnover. Patches of higher quality were more likely to be colonized than patches of lower quality. Populations in high-quality patches were less likely to become extinct. In addition, extinction in a patch was strongly associated with local population size but not with patch size, which means the latter may not be a good surrogate of population size in assessments of extinction probability. Our results suggest that habitat quality may be a primary driver of patch-occupancy dynamics and may increase the accuracy of models of population survival. We encourage comparisons of competing models that assess occupancy, colonization, and extinction probabilities in a single analytical framework (e.g., dynamic occupancy models) so as to shed light on the association of habitat quality and patch geometry with colonization and extinction processes in different settings and species.

  10. The evolutionary legacy of size-selective harvesting extends from genes to populations

    PubMed Central

    Uusi-Heikkilä, Silva; Whiteley, Andrew R; Kuparinen, Anna; Matsumura, Shuichi; Venturelli, Paul A; Wolter, Christian; Slate, Jon; Primmer, Craig R; Meinelt, Thomas; Killen, Shaun S; Bierbach, David; Polverino, Giovanni; Ludwig, Arne; Arlinghaus, Robert

    2015-01-01

    Size-selective harvesting is assumed to alter life histories of exploited fish populations, thereby negatively affecting population productivity, recovery, and yield. However, demonstrating that fisheries-induced phenotypic changes in the wild are at least partly genetically determined has proved notoriously difficult. Moreover, the population-level consequences of fisheries-induced evolution are still being controversially discussed. Using an experimental approach, we found that five generations of size-selective harvesting altered the life histories and behavior, but not the metabolic rate, of wild-origin zebrafish (Danio rerio). Fish adapted to high positively size selective fishing pressure invested more in reproduction, reached a smaller adult body size, and were less explorative and bold. Phenotypic changes seemed subtle but were accompanied by genetic changes in functional loci. Thus, our results provided unambiguous evidence for rapid, harvest-induced phenotypic and evolutionary change when harvesting is intensive and size selective. According to a life-history model, the observed life-history changes elevated population growth rate in harvested conditions, but slowed population recovery under a simulated moratorium. Hence, the evolutionary legacy of size-selective harvesting includes populations that are productive under exploited conditions, but selectively disadvantaged to cope with natural selection pressures that often favor large body size. PMID:26136825

  11. The evolutionary legacy of size-selective harvesting extends from genes to populations.

    PubMed

    Uusi-Heikkilä, Silva; Whiteley, Andrew R; Kuparinen, Anna; Matsumura, Shuichi; Venturelli, Paul A; Wolter, Christian; Slate, Jon; Primmer, Craig R; Meinelt, Thomas; Killen, Shaun S; Bierbach, David; Polverino, Giovanni; Ludwig, Arne; Arlinghaus, Robert

    2015-07-01

    Size-selective harvesting is assumed to alter life histories of exploited fish populations, thereby negatively affecting population productivity, recovery, and yield. However, demonstrating that fisheries-induced phenotypic changes in the wild are at least partly genetically determined has proved notoriously difficult. Moreover, the population-level consequences of fisheries-induced evolution are still being controversially discussed. Using an experimental approach, we found that five generations of size-selective harvesting altered the life histories and behavior, but not the metabolic rate, of wild-origin zebrafish (Danio rerio). Fish adapted to high positively size selective fishing pressure invested more in reproduction, reached a smaller adult body size, and were less explorative and bold. Phenotypic changes seemed subtle but were accompanied by genetic changes in functional loci. Thus, our results provided unambiguous evidence for rapid, harvest-induced phenotypic and evolutionary change when harvesting is intensive and size selective. According to a life-history model, the observed life-history changes elevated population growth rate in harvested conditions, but slowed population recovery under a simulated moratorium. Hence, the evolutionary legacy of size-selective harvesting includes populations that are productive under exploited conditions, but selectively disadvantaged to cope with natural selection pressures that often favor large body size. PMID:26136825

  12. Variations in basic demographics consequential to population size of governorate in Saudi Arabia.

    PubMed

    Khraif, Rshood; Salam, Asharaf Abdul; Potty, Rajaram Subramanian; Aldosari, Ali; Elsegaey, Ibrahim; AlMutairi, Abdullah

    2016-01-01

    Saudi Arabia, divided into 5 planning regions, 13 administrative regions and further to 118 governorates (administrative units), has diverse demographic characteristics from one region to another and from one governorate to another. Rural to urban migration and an exodus of immigrants characterize the Kingdom, where development planning depend largely upon local level requirements based on economic activities. An attempt was made to analyze the population characteristics, such as population size, sex ratio, native to foreigner ratio, and households and persons per households by keeping governorate as unit of analysis. Data of two census period (2004 and 2010) was used in order to explore the situation and track the intercensal changes. Large variations in population were observed between governorates and it varied from 3686 to 5,007,886 in 2010. Governorates are divided according to the number of native population demarcating urbanization, modernization and infrastructure. During the intercensal period, the number of small governorates reduced and medium and large sized governorates increased mainly due to population growth. The average population in governorates was increased in total and in the larger governorates during the period. However, we noticed a reduction in the average population size in the small and medium sized governorates. The size of native population in a governorate influences the sex ratio, the native-foreigner ratio and the persons per household as well as the variations within the group of governorates. Analyses of lower level data shall aid not only to understand the situation but also to support local development policies. PMID:27652007

  13. Variations in basic demographics consequential to population size of governorate in Saudi Arabia.

    PubMed

    Khraif, Rshood; Salam, Asharaf Abdul; Potty, Rajaram Subramanian; Aldosari, Ali; Elsegaey, Ibrahim; AlMutairi, Abdullah

    2016-01-01

    Saudi Arabia, divided into 5 planning regions, 13 administrative regions and further to 118 governorates (administrative units), has diverse demographic characteristics from one region to another and from one governorate to another. Rural to urban migration and an exodus of immigrants characterize the Kingdom, where development planning depend largely upon local level requirements based on economic activities. An attempt was made to analyze the population characteristics, such as population size, sex ratio, native to foreigner ratio, and households and persons per households by keeping governorate as unit of analysis. Data of two census period (2004 and 2010) was used in order to explore the situation and track the intercensal changes. Large variations in population were observed between governorates and it varied from 3686 to 5,007,886 in 2010. Governorates are divided according to the number of native population demarcating urbanization, modernization and infrastructure. During the intercensal period, the number of small governorates reduced and medium and large sized governorates increased mainly due to population growth. The average population in governorates was increased in total and in the larger governorates during the period. However, we noticed a reduction in the average population size in the small and medium sized governorates. The size of native population in a governorate influences the sex ratio, the native-foreigner ratio and the persons per household as well as the variations within the group of governorates. Analyses of lower level data shall aid not only to understand the situation but also to support local development policies.

  14. Two-Locus Likelihoods Under Variable Population Size and Fine-Scale Recombination Rate Estimation.

    PubMed

    Kamm, John A; Spence, Jeffrey P; Chan, Jeffrey; Song, Yun S

    2016-07-01

    Two-locus sampling probabilities have played a central role in devising an efficient composite-likelihood method for estimating fine-scale recombination rates. Due to mathematical and computational challenges, these sampling probabilities are typically computed under the unrealistic assumption of a constant population size, and simulation studies have shown that resulting recombination rate estimates can be severely biased in certain cases of historical population size changes. To alleviate this problem, we develop here new methods to compute the sampling probability for variable population size functions that are piecewise constant. Our main theoretical result, implemented in a new software package called LDpop, is a novel formula for the sampling probability that can be evaluated by numerically exponentiating a large but sparse matrix. This formula can handle moderate sample sizes ([Formula: see text]) and demographic size histories with a large number of epochs ([Formula: see text]). In addition, LDpop implements an approximate formula for the sampling probability that is reasonably accurate and scales to hundreds in sample size ([Formula: see text]). Finally, LDpop includes an importance sampler for the posterior distribution of two-locus genealogies, based on a new result for the optimal proposal distribution in the variable-size setting. Using our methods, we study how a sharp population bottleneck followed by rapid growth affects the correlation between partially linked sites. Then, through an extensive simulation study, we show that accounting for population size changes under such a demographic model leads to substantial improvements in fine-scale recombination rate estimation. PMID:27182948

  15. Two-Locus Likelihoods Under Variable Population Size and Fine-Scale Recombination Rate Estimation.

    PubMed

    Kamm, John A; Spence, Jeffrey P; Chan, Jeffrey; Song, Yun S

    2016-07-01

    Two-locus sampling probabilities have played a central role in devising an efficient composite-likelihood method for estimating fine-scale recombination rates. Due to mathematical and computational challenges, these sampling probabilities are typically computed under the unrealistic assumption of a constant population size, and simulation studies have shown that resulting recombination rate estimates can be severely biased in certain cases of historical population size changes. To alleviate this problem, we develop here new methods to compute the sampling probability for variable population size functions that are piecewise constant. Our main theoretical result, implemented in a new software package called LDpop, is a novel formula for the sampling probability that can be evaluated by numerically exponentiating a large but sparse matrix. This formula can handle moderate sample sizes ([Formula: see text]) and demographic size histories with a large number of epochs ([Formula: see text]). In addition, LDpop implements an approximate formula for the sampling probability that is reasonably accurate and scales to hundreds in sample size ([Formula: see text]). Finally, LDpop includes an importance sampler for the posterior distribution of two-locus genealogies, based on a new result for the optimal proposal distribution in the variable-size setting. Using our methods, we study how a sharp population bottleneck followed by rapid growth affects the correlation between partially linked sites. Then, through an extensive simulation study, we show that accounting for population size changes under such a demographic model leads to substantial improvements in fine-scale recombination rate estimation.

  16. Population size influences amphibian detection probability: implications for biodiversity monitoring programs.

    PubMed

    Tanadini, Lorenzo G; Schmidt, Benedikt R

    2011-01-01

    Monitoring is an integral part of species conservation. Monitoring programs must take imperfect detection of species into account in order to be reliable. Theory suggests that detection probability may be determined by population size but this relationship has not yet been assessed empirically. Population size is particularly important because it may induce heterogeneity in detection probability and thereby cause bias in estimates of biodiversity. We used a site occupancy model to analyse data from a volunteer-based amphibian monitoring program to assess how well different variables explain variation in detection probability. An index to population size best explained detection probabilities for four out of six species (to avoid circular reasoning, we used the count of individuals at a previous site visit as an index to current population size). The relationship between the population index and detection probability was positive. Commonly used weather variables best explained detection probabilities for two out of six species. Estimates of site occupancy probabilities differed depending on whether the population index was or was not used to model detection probability. The relationship between the population index and detectability has implications for the design of monitoring and species conservation. Most importantly, because many small populations are likely to be overlooked, monitoring programs should be designed in such a way that small populations are not overlooked. The results also imply that methods cannot be standardized in such a way that detection probabilities are constant. As we have shown here, one can easily account for variation in population size in the analysis of data from long-term monitoring programs by using counts of individuals from surveys at the same site in previous years. Accounting for variation in population size is important because it can affect the results of long-term monitoring programs and ultimately the conservation of

  17. Population Size Influences Amphibian Detection Probability: Implications for Biodiversity Monitoring Programs

    PubMed Central

    Tanadini, Lorenzo G.; Schmidt, Benedikt R.

    2011-01-01

    Monitoring is an integral part of species conservation. Monitoring programs must take imperfect detection of species into account in order to be reliable. Theory suggests that detection probability may be determined by population size but this relationship has not yet been assessed empirically. Population size is particularly important because it may induce heterogeneity in detection probability and thereby cause bias in estimates of biodiversity. We used a site occupancy model to analyse data from a volunteer-based amphibian monitoring program to assess how well different variables explain variation in detection probability. An index to population size best explained detection probabilities for four out of six species (to avoid circular reasoning, we used the count of individuals at a previous site visit as an index to current population size). The relationship between the population index and detection probability was positive. Commonly used weather variables best explained detection probabilities for two out of six species. Estimates of site occupancy probabilities differed depending on whether the population index was or was not used to model detection probability. The relationship between the population index and detectability has implications for the design of monitoring and species conservation. Most importantly, because many small populations are likely to be overlooked, monitoring programs should be designed in such a way that small populations are not overlooked. The results also imply that methods cannot be standardized in such a way that detection probabilities are constant. As we have shown here, one can easily account for variation in population size in the analysis of data from long-term monitoring programs by using counts of individuals from surveys at the same site in previous years. Accounting for variation in population size is important because it can affect the results of long-term monitoring programs and ultimately the conservation of

  18. Population size influences amphibian detection probability: implications for biodiversity monitoring programs.

    PubMed

    Tanadini, Lorenzo G; Schmidt, Benedikt R

    2011-01-01

    Monitoring is an integral part of species conservation. Monitoring programs must take imperfect detection of species into account in order to be reliable. Theory suggests that detection probability may be determined by population size but this relationship has not yet been assessed empirically. Population size is particularly important because it may induce heterogeneity in detection probability and thereby cause bias in estimates of biodiversity. We used a site occupancy model to analyse data from a volunteer-based amphibian monitoring program to assess how well different variables explain variation in detection probability. An index to population size best explained detection probabilities for four out of six species (to avoid circular reasoning, we used the count of individuals at a previous site visit as an index to current population size). The relationship between the population index and detection probability was positive. Commonly used weather variables best explained detection probabilities for two out of six species. Estimates of site occupancy probabilities differed depending on whether the population index was or was not used to model detection probability. The relationship between the population index and detectability has implications for the design of monitoring and species conservation. Most importantly, because many small populations are likely to be overlooked, monitoring programs should be designed in such a way that small populations are not overlooked. The results also imply that methods cannot be standardized in such a way that detection probabilities are constant. As we have shown here, one can easily account for variation in population size in the analysis of data from long-term monitoring programs by using counts of individuals from surveys at the same site in previous years. Accounting for variation in population size is important because it can affect the results of long-term monitoring programs and ultimately the conservation of

  19. Confidence intervals for population allele frequencies: the general case of sampling from a finite diploid population of any size.

    PubMed

    Fung, Tak; Keenan, Kevin

    2014-01-01

    The estimation of population allele frequencies using sample data forms a central component of studies in population genetics. These estimates can be used to test hypotheses on the evolutionary processes governing changes in genetic variation among populations. However, existing studies frequently do not account for sampling uncertainty in these estimates, thus compromising their utility. Incorporation of this uncertainty has been hindered by the lack of a method for constructing confidence intervals containing the population allele frequencies, for the general case of sampling from a finite diploid population of any size. In this study, we address this important knowledge gap by presenting a rigorous mathematical method to construct such confidence intervals. For a range of scenarios, the method is used to demonstrate that for a particular allele, in order to obtain accurate estimates within 0.05 of the population allele frequency with high probability (> or = 95%), a sample size of > 30 is often required. This analysis is augmented by an application of the method to empirical sample allele frequency data for two populations of the checkerspot butterfly (Melitaea cinxia L.), occupying meadows in Finland. For each population, the method is used to derive > or = 98.3% confidence intervals for the population frequencies of three alleles. These intervals are then used to construct two joint > or = 95% confidence regions, one for the set of three frequencies for each population. These regions are then used to derive a > or = 95%% confidence interval for Jost's D, a measure of genetic differentiation between the two populations. Overall, the results demonstrate the practical utility of the method with respect to informing sampling design and accounting for sampling uncertainty in studies of population genetics, important for scientific hypothesis-testing and also for risk-based natural resource management. PMID:24465792

  20. Increased Selection Response in Larger Populations. I. Selection for Wing-Tip Height in Drosophila Melanogaster at Three Population Sizes

    PubMed Central

    Weber, K. E.

    1990-01-01

    The effect of population size on selection response was investigated with replicated selection lines of 40, 200 and 1000 selected parents, using Drosophila melanogaster homozygous for the mutant raised. Selection for increased wing-tip height was carried out for 55 generations, with an average selection intensity of 0.6 standard deviation. The rank order of responses in the seven individual lines was significantly in order of population size, and the variance of response among lines showed a significant effect of population size. The final mean responses (selected - controls, +/- standard errors) in the three treatments, in order of increasing population size, were 8.6 +/- 1.8 mils (three small lines), 15.1 +/- 1.3 mils (two medium lines), and 19.8 +/- 1.5 mils (two large lines). The differences between treatments seem to have emerged too rapidly to be the result of mutations, and are probably due mainly to the utilization of existing variation with greater efficiency by selection in larger populations. PMID:2116358

  1. Cranioplasty for Large-Sized Calvarial Defects in the Pediatric Population: A Review

    PubMed Central

    Lam, Sandi; Kuether, Justin; Fong, Abigail; Reid, Russell

    2014-01-01

    Large-sized calvarial defects in pediatric patients pose a reconstructive challenge because of children's unique physiology, developing anatomy, and dynamic growth. We review the current literature and outcomes with autologous and alloplastic cranioplasty in the pediatric population. PMID:26000090

  2. Temporal Variation in Population Size of European Bird Species: Effects of Latitude and Marginality of Distribution

    PubMed Central

    Cuervo, José J.; Møller, Anders P.

    2013-01-01

    In the Northern Hemisphere, global warming has been shown to affect animal populations in different ways, with southern populations in general suffering more from increased temperatures than northern populations of the same species. However, southern populations are also often marginal populations relative to the entire breeding range, and marginality may also have negative effects on populations. To disentangle the effects of latitude (possibly due to global warming) and marginality on temporal variation in population size, we investigated European breeding bird species across a latitudinal gradient. Population size estimates were regressed on years, and from these regressions we obtained the slope (a proxy for population trend) and the standard error of the estimate (SEE) (a proxy for population fluctuations). The possible relationships between marginality or latitude on one hand and slopes or SEE on the other were tested among populations within species. Potentially confounding factors such as census method, sampling effort, density-dependence, habitat fragmentation and number of sampling years were controlled statistically. Population latitude was positively related to regression slopes independent of marginality, with more positive slopes (i.e., trends) in northern than in southern populations. The degree of marginality was positively related to SEE independent of latitude, with marginal populations showing larger SEE (i.e., fluctuations) than central ones. Regression slopes were also significantly related to our estimate of density-dependence and SEE was significantly affected by the census method. These results are consistent with a scenario in which southern and northern populations of European bird species are negatively affected by marginality, with southern populations benefitting less from global warming than northern populations, thus potentially making southern populations more vulnerable to extinction. PMID:24147048

  3. Temporal variation in population size of European bird species: effects of latitude and marginality of distribution.

    PubMed

    Cuervo, José J; Møller, Anders P

    2013-01-01

    In the Northern Hemisphere, global warming has been shown to affect animal populations in different ways, with southern populations in general suffering more from increased temperatures than northern populations of the same species. However, southern populations are also often marginal populations relative to the entire breeding range, and marginality may also have negative effects on populations. To disentangle the effects of latitude (possibly due to global warming) and marginality on temporal variation in population size, we investigated European breeding bird species across a latitudinal gradient. Population size estimates were regressed on years, and from these regressions we obtained the slope (a proxy for population trend) and the standard error of the estimate (SEE) (a proxy for population fluctuations). The possible relationships between marginality or latitude on one hand and slopes or SEE on the other were tested among populations within species. Potentially confounding factors such as census method, sampling effort, density-dependence, habitat fragmentation and number of sampling years were controlled statistically. Population latitude was positively related to regression slopes independent of marginality, with more positive slopes (i.e., trends) in northern than in southern populations. The degree of marginality was positively related to SEE independent of latitude, with marginal populations showing larger SEE (i.e., fluctuations) than central ones. Regression slopes were also significantly related to our estimate of density-dependence and SEE was significantly affected by the census method. These results are consistent with a scenario in which southern and northern populations of European bird species are negatively affected by marginality, with southern populations benefitting less from global warming than northern populations, thus potentially making southern populations more vulnerable to extinction.

  4. First molar size and wear within and among modern hunter-gatherers and agricultural populations.

    PubMed

    Górka, Katarzyna; Romero, Alejandro; Pérez-Pérez, Alejandro

    2015-08-01

    Apart from reflecting modern human dental variation, differences in dental size among populations provide a means for studying continuous evolutionary processes and their mechanisms. Dental wear, on the other hand, has been widely used to infer dietary adaptations and variability among or within diverse ancient human populations. Few such studies have focused on modern foragers and farmers, however, and diverse methods have been used. This research aimed to apply a single, standardized, and systematic quantitative procedure to measure dental size and dentin exposure in order to analyze differences among several hunter-gatherer and agricultural populations from various environments and geographic origins. In particular, we focused on sexual dimorphism and intergroup differences in the upper and lower first molars. Results indicated no sexual dimorphism in molar size and wear within the studied populations. Despite the great ethnographic variation in subsistence strategies among these populations, our findings suggest that differences in sexual division of labor do not affect dietary wear patterns. PMID:26032341

  5. Modeling of LEO Orbital Debris Populations in Centimeter and Millimeter Size Regimes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Xu, Y.-L.; Hill, . M.; Horstman, M.; Krisko, P. H.; Liou, J.-C.; Matney, M.; Stansbery, E. G.

    2010-01-01

    The building of the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model, whether ORDEM2000 or its recently updated version ORDEM2010, uses as its foundation a number of model debris populations, each truncated at a minimum object-size ranging from 10 micron to 1 m. This paper discusses the development of the ORDEM2010 model debris populations in LEO (low Earth orbit), focusing on centimeter (smaller than 10 cm) and millimeter size regimes. Primary data sets used in the statistical derivation of the cm- and mm-size model populations are from the Haystack radar operated in a staring mode. Unlike cataloged objects of sizes greater than approximately 10 cm, ground-based radars monitor smaller-size debris only in a statistical manner instead of tracking every piece. The mono-static Haystack radar can detect debris as small as approximately 5 mm at moderate LEO altitudes. Estimation of millimeter debris populations (for objects smaller than approximately 6 mm) rests largely on Goldstone radar measurements. The bi-static Goldstone radar can detect 2- to 3-mm objects. The modeling of the cm- and mm-debris populations follows the general approach to developing other ORDEM2010-required model populations for various components and types of debris. It relies on appropriate reference populations to provide necessary prior information on the orbital structures and other important characteristics of the debris objects. NASA's LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris (LEGEND) model is capable of furnishing such reference populations in the desired size range. A Bayesian statistical inference process, commonly adopted in ORDEM2010 model-population derivations, changes a priori distribution into a posteriori distribution and thus refines the reference populations in terms of data. This paper describes key elements and major steps in the statistical derivations of the cm- and mm-size debris populations and presents results. Due to lack of data for near 1-mm sizes, the model populations of 1- to 3.16-mm

  6. Joint effects of population size and isolation on genetic erosion in fragmented populations: finding fragmentation thresholds for management

    PubMed Central

    Méndez, María; Vögeli, Matthias; Tella, José L; Godoy, José A

    2014-01-01

    Size and isolation of local populations are main parameters of interest when assessing the genetic consequences of habitat fragmentation. However, their relative influence on the genetic erosion of local populations remains unclear. In this study, we first analysed how size and isolation of habitat patches influence the genetic variation of local populations of the Dupont's lark (Chersophilus duponti), an endangered songbird. An information-theoretic approach to model selection allowed us to address the importance of interactions between habitat variables, an aspect seldom considered in fragmentation studies, but which explained up to 65% of the variance in genetic parameters. Genetic diversity and inbreeding were influenced by the size of local populations depending on their degree of isolation, and genetic differentiation was positively related to isolation. We then identified a minimum local population of 19 male territories and a maximum distance of 30 km to the nearest population as thresholds from which genetic erosion becomes apparent. Our results alert on possibly misleading conclusions and suboptimal management recommendations when only additive effects are taken into account and encourage the use of most explanatory but easy-to-measure variables for the evaluation of genetic risks in conservation programmes. PMID:24822084

  7. Effective population size is positively correlated with levels of adaptive divergence among annual sunflowers.

    PubMed

    Strasburg, Jared L; Kane, Nolan C; Raduski, Andrew R; Bonin, Aurélie; Michelmore, Richard; Rieseberg, Loren H

    2011-05-01

    The role of adaptation in the divergence of lineages has long been a central question in evolutionary biology, and as multilocus sequence data sets have become available for a wide range of taxa, empirical estimates of levels of adaptive molecular evolution are increasingly common. Estimates vary widely among taxa, with high levels of adaptive evolution in Drosophila, bacteria, and viruses but very little evidence of widespread adaptive evolution in hominids. Although estimates in plants are more limited, some recent work has suggested that rates of adaptive evolution in a range of plant taxa are surprisingly low and that there is little association between adaptive evolution and effective population size in contrast to patterns seen in other taxa. Here, we analyze data from 35 loci for six sunflower species that vary dramatically in effective population size. We find that rates of adaptive evolution are positively correlated with effective population size in these species, with a significant fraction of amino acid substitutions driven by positive selection in the species with the largest effective population sizes but little or no evidence of adaptive evolution in species with smaller effective population sizes. Although other factors likely contribute as well, in sunflowers effective population size appears to be an important determinant of rates of adaptive evolution.

  8. Statistical Estimation of Orbital Debris Populations with a Spectrum of Object Size

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Yu-Lin; Horstman, Matthew; Krisko, Paula; Liou, J.-C.; Matney, Mark; Stansbery, Eugene; Stokely, Christopher; Whitlock, David

    Orbital debris is a real concern for the safe operations of satellites. In general, the hazard of debris impact is a function of the size and spatial distributions of the debris populations. To describe and characterize the debris environment as reliably as possible, the current NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM2000) is being upgraded to a new version based on new and better-quality data. The data-driven ORDEM model covers a wide range of object sizes from 10 microns to greater than 1 meter. This paper reviews the statistical process for the estimation of the debris populations in the new ORDEM upgrade, and discusses the representation of large-size (≥1 m and ≥10 cm) populations by SSN catalog objects and the validation of the statistical approach. Also, it presents results for the populations with sizes of ≥3.3 cm, ≥1 cm, ≥100 µm, and ≥10 µm. The orbital debris populations used in the new version of ORDEM are inferred from data based upon appropriate reference (or benchmark) populations instead of the binning of the multi-dimensional orbital-element space. This paper describes all of the major steps used in the population-inference procedure for each size-range. Detailed discussions on data analysis, parameter definition, the correlation between parameters and data, and uncertainty assessment are included.

  9. Statistical Estimation of Orbital Debris Populations with a Spectrum of Object Size

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Xu, Y. -l; Horstman, M.; Krisko, P. H.; Liou, J. -C; Matney, M.; Stansbery, E. G.; Stokely, C. L.; Whitlock, D.

    2008-01-01

    Orbital debris is a real concern for the safe operations of satellites. In general, the hazard of debris impact is a function of the size and spatial distributions of the debris populations. To describe and characterize the debris environment as reliably as possible, the current NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM2000) is being upgraded to a new version based on new and better quality data. The data-driven ORDEM model covers a wide range of object sizes from 10 microns to greater than 1 meter. This paper reviews the statistical process for the estimation of the debris populations in the new ORDEM upgrade, and discusses the representation of large-size (greater than or equal to 1 m and greater than or equal to 10 cm) populations by SSN catalog objects and the validation of the statistical approach. Also, it presents results for the populations with sizes of greater than or equal to 3.3 cm, greater than or equal to 1 cm, greater than or equal to 100 micrometers, and greater than or equal to 10 micrometers. The orbital debris populations used in the new version of ORDEM are inferred from data based upon appropriate reference (or benchmark) populations instead of the binning of the multi-dimensional orbital-element space. This paper describes all of the major steps used in the population-inference procedure for each size-range. Detailed discussions on data analysis, parameter definition, the correlation between parameters and data, and uncertainty assessment are included.

  10. Faltering lemming cycles reduce productivity and population size of a migratory Arctic goose species.

    PubMed

    Nolet, Bart A; Bauer, Silke; Feige, Nicole; Kokorev, Yakov I; Popov, Igor Yu; Ebbinge, Barwolt S

    2013-07-01

    The huge changes in population sizes of Arctic-nesting geese offer a great opportunity to study population limitation in migratory animals. In geese, population limitation seems to have shifted from wintering to summering grounds. There, in the Arctic, climate is rapidly changing, and this may impact reproductive performance, and perhaps population size of geese, both directly (e.g. by changes in snow melt) or indirectly (e.g. by changes in trophic interactions). Dark-bellied brent geese (Branta bernicla bernicla L.) increased 20-fold since the 1950s. Its reproduction fluctuates strongly in concert with the 3-year lemming cycle. An earlier analysis, covering the growth period until 1988, did not find evidence for density dependence, but thereafter the population levelled off and even decreased. The question is whether this is caused by changes in lemming cycles, population density or other factors like carry-over effects. Breeding success was derived from proportions of juveniles. We used an information-theoretical approach to investigate which environmental factors best explained the variation in breeding success over nearly 50 years (1960-2008). We subsequently combined GLM predictions of breeding success with published survival estimates to project the population trajectory since 1991 (year of maximum population size). In this way, we separated the effects of lemming abundance and population density on population development. Breeding success was mainly dependent on lemming abundance, the onset of spring at the breeding grounds, and the population size of brent goose. No evidence was found for carry-over effects (i.e. effects of conditions at main spring staging site). Negative density dependence was operating at a population size above c. 200 000 individuals, but the levelling off of the population could be explained by faltering lemming cycles alone. Lemmings have long been known to affect population productivity of Arctic-nesting migratory birds and, more

  11. Faltering lemming cycles reduce productivity and population size of a migratory Arctic goose species

    PubMed Central

    Nolet, Bart A; Bauer, Silke; Feige, Nicole; Kokorev, Yakov I; Popov, Igor Yu; Ebbinge, Barwolt S

    2013-01-01

    1. The huge changes in population sizes of Arctic-nesting geese offer a great opportunity to study population limitation in migratory animals. In geese, population limitation seems to have shifted from wintering to summering grounds. There, in the Arctic, climate is rapidly changing, and this may impact reproductive performance, and perhaps population size of geese, both directly (e.g. by changes in snow melt) or indirectly (e.g. by changes in trophic interactions). 2. Dark-bellied brent geese (Branta bernicla bernicla L.) increased 20-fold since the 1950s. Its reproduction fluctuates strongly in concert with the 3-year lemming cycle. An earlier analysis, covering the growth period until 1988, did not find evidence for density dependence, but thereafter the population levelled off and even decreased. The question is whether this is caused by changes in lemming cycles, population density or other factors like carry-over effects. 3. Breeding success was derived from proportions of juveniles. We used an information-theoretical approach to investigate which environmental factors best explained the variation in breeding success over nearly 50 years (1960–2008). We subsequently combined GLM predictions of breeding success with published survival estimates to project the population trajectory since 1991 (year of maximum population size). In this way, we separated the effects of lemming abundance and population density on population development. 4. Breeding success was mainly dependent on lemming abundance, the onset of spring at the breeding grounds, and the population size of brent goose. No evidence was found for carry-over effects (i.e. effects of conditions at main spring staging site). Negative density dependence was operating at a population size above c. 200 000 individuals, but the levelling off of the population could be explained by faltering lemming cycles alone. 5. Lemmings have long been known to affect population productivity of Arctic-nesting migratory

  12. Faltering lemming cycles reduce productivity and population size of a migratory Arctic goose species.

    PubMed

    Nolet, Bart A; Bauer, Silke; Feige, Nicole; Kokorev, Yakov I; Popov, Igor Yu; Ebbinge, Barwolt S

    2013-07-01

    The huge changes in population sizes of Arctic-nesting geese offer a great opportunity to study population limitation in migratory animals. In geese, population limitation seems to have shifted from wintering to summering grounds. There, in the Arctic, climate is rapidly changing, and this may impact reproductive performance, and perhaps population size of geese, both directly (e.g. by changes in snow melt) or indirectly (e.g. by changes in trophic interactions). Dark-bellied brent geese (Branta bernicla bernicla L.) increased 20-fold since the 1950s. Its reproduction fluctuates strongly in concert with the 3-year lemming cycle. An earlier analysis, covering the growth period until 1988, did not find evidence for density dependence, but thereafter the population levelled off and even decreased. The question is whether this is caused by changes in lemming cycles, population density or other factors like carry-over effects. Breeding success was derived from proportions of juveniles. We used an information-theoretical approach to investigate which environmental factors best explained the variation in breeding success over nearly 50 years (1960-2008). We subsequently combined GLM predictions of breeding success with published survival estimates to project the population trajectory since 1991 (year of maximum population size). In this way, we separated the effects of lemming abundance and population density on population development. Breeding success was mainly dependent on lemming abundance, the onset of spring at the breeding grounds, and the population size of brent goose. No evidence was found for carry-over effects (i.e. effects of conditions at main spring staging site). Negative density dependence was operating at a population size above c. 200 000 individuals, but the levelling off of the population could be explained by faltering lemming cycles alone. Lemmings have long been known to affect population productivity of Arctic-nesting migratory birds and, more

  13. Population Size and Suicide in U.S. Cities: A Static and Dynamic Exploration

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McCall, Patricia L.; Tittle, Charles R.

    2007-01-01

    The relationship between city population size and suicide rates rarely has been examined directly, though scholars often assume such a relationship exists based on studies of the association between suicide rates and urbanization (percent of the population living in cities) in various social contexts. In an effort to determine the basic…

  14. Man in Balance with the Environment: Pollution and the Optimal Population Size

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ultsch, Gordon R.

    1973-01-01

    Discusses the relationship between population size and pollution, and suggests that the optimal population level toward which we should strive would be that level at which man is in balance with the biosphere in terms of pollution production and degradation, coupled with a harmless steady-state background pollution level. (JR)

  15. Characteristics of the variance effective population size over time using an age structured model with variable size.

    PubMed

    Olsson, Fredrik; Hössjer, Ola; Laikre, Linda; Ryman, Nils

    2013-12-01

    The variance effective population size (NeV) is a key concept in population biology, because it quantifies the microevolutionary process of random genetic drift, and understanding the characteristics of NeV is thus of central importance. Current formulas for NeV for populations with overlapping generations weight age classes according to their reproductive values (i.e. reflecting the contribution of genes from separate age classes to the population growth) to obtain a correct measure of genetic drift when computing the variance of the allele frequency change over time. In this paper, we examine the effect of applying different weights to the age classes using a novel analytical approach for exploring NeV. We consider a haploid organism with overlapping generations and populations of increasing, declining, or constant expected size and stochastic variation with respect to the number of individuals in the separate age classes. We define NeV, as a function of how the age classes are weighted, and of the span between the two points in time, when measuring allele frequency change. With this model, time profiles for NeV can be calculated for populations with various life histories and with fluctuations in life history composition, using different weighting schemes. We examine analytically and by simulations when NeV, using a weighting scheme with respect to reproductive contribution of separate age classes, accurately reflect the variance of the allele frequency change due to genetic drift over time. We show that the discrepancy of NeV, calculated with reproductive values as weights, compared to when individuals are weighted equally, tends to a constant when the time span between the two measurements increases. This constant is zero only for a population with a constant expected population size. Our results confirm that the effect of ignoring overlapping generations, when empirically assessing NeV from allele frequency shifts, gets smaller as the time interval between

  16. 45 CFR Appendix C to Part 1356 - Calculating Sample Size for NYTD Follow-Up Populations

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 45 Public Welfare 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Calculating Sample Size for NYTD Follow-Up Populations C Appendix C to Part 1356 Public Welfare Regulations Relating to Public Welfare (Continued) OFFICE... REQUIREMENTS APPLICABLE TO TITLE IV-E Pt. 1356, App. C Appendix C to Part 1356—Calculating Sample Size for...

  17. Central limit theorem for variable size simple random sampling from a finite population

    SciTech Connect

    Wright, T.

    1986-02-01

    This paper introduces a sampling plan for finite populations herein called ''variable size simple random sampling'' and compares properties of estimators based on it with results from the usual fixed size simple random sampling without replacement. Necessary and sufficient conditions (in the spirit of Hajek) for the limiting distribution of the sample total (or sample mean) to be normal are given. 19 refs.

  18. Estimating variable effective population sizes from multiple genomes: a sequentially markov conditional sampling distribution approach.

    PubMed

    Sheehan, Sara; Harris, Kelley; Song, Yun S

    2013-07-01

    Throughout history, the population size of modern humans has varied considerably due to changes in environment, culture, and technology. More accurate estimates of population size changes, and when they occurred, should provide a clearer picture of human colonization history and help remove confounding effects from natural selection inference. Demography influences the pattern of genetic variation in a population, and thus genomic data of multiple individuals sampled from one or more present-day populations contain valuable information about the past demographic history. Recently, Li and Durbin developed a coalescent-based hidden Markov model, called the pairwise sequentially Markovian coalescent (PSMC), for a pair of chromosomes (or one diploid individual) to estimate past population sizes. This is an efficient, useful approach, but its accuracy in the very recent past is hampered by the fact that, because of the small sample size, only few coalescence events occur in that period. Multiple genomes from the same population contain more information about the recent past, but are also more computationally challenging to study jointly in a coalescent framework. Here, we present a new coalescent-based method that can efficiently infer population size changes from multiple genomes, providing access to a new store of information about the recent past. Our work generalizes the recently developed sequentially Markov conditional sampling distribution framework, which provides an accurate approximation of the probability of observing a newly sampled haplotype given a set of previously sampled haplotypes. Simulation results demonstrate that we can accurately reconstruct the true population histories, with a significant improvement over the PSMC in the recent past. We apply our method, called diCal, to the genomes of multiple human individuals of European and African ancestry to obtain a detailed population size change history during recent times.

  19. Estimating Variable Effective Population Sizes from Multiple Genomes: A Sequentially Markov Conditional Sampling Distribution Approach

    PubMed Central

    Sheehan, Sara; Harris, Kelley; Song, Yun S.

    2013-01-01

    Throughout history, the population size of modern humans has varied considerably due to changes in environment, culture, and technology. More accurate estimates of population size changes, and when they occurred, should provide a clearer picture of human colonization history and help remove confounding effects from natural selection inference. Demography influences the pattern of genetic variation in a population, and thus genomic data of multiple individuals sampled from one or more present-day populations contain valuable information about the past demographic history. Recently, Li and Durbin developed a coalescent-based hidden Markov model, called the pairwise sequentially Markovian coalescent (PSMC), for a pair of chromosomes (or one diploid individual) to estimate past population sizes. This is an efficient, useful approach, but its accuracy in the very recent past is hampered by the fact that, because of the small sample size, only few coalescence events occur in that period. Multiple genomes from the same population contain more information about the recent past, but are also more computationally challenging to study jointly in a coalescent framework. Here, we present a new coalescent-based method that can efficiently infer population size changes from multiple genomes, providing access to a new store of information about the recent past. Our work generalizes the recently developed sequentially Markov conditional sampling distribution framework, which provides an accurate approximation of the probability of observing a newly sampled haplotype given a set of previously sampled haplotypes. Simulation results demonstrate that we can accurately reconstruct the true population histories, with a significant improvement over the PSMC in the recent past. We apply our method, called diCal, to the genomes of multiple human individuals of European and African ancestry to obtain a detailed population size change history during recent times. PMID:23608192

  20. Demographic population model for American shad: will access to additional habitat upstream of dams increase population sizes?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harris, Julianne E.; Hightower, Joseph E.

    2012-01-01

    American shad Alosa sapidissima are in decline in their native range, and modeling possible management scenarios could help guide their restoration. We developed a density-dependent, deterministic, stage-based matrix model to predict the population-level results of transporting American shad to suitable spawning habitat upstream of dams on the Roanoke River, North Carolina and Virginia. We used data on sonic-tagged adult American shad and oxytetracycline-marked American shad fry both above and below dams on the Roanoke River with information from other systems to estimate a starting population size and vital rates. We modeled the adult female population over 30 years under plausible scenarios of adult transport, effective fecundity (egg production), and survival of adults (i.e., to return to spawn the next year) and juveniles (from spawned egg to age 1). We also evaluated the potential effects of increased survival for adults and juveniles. The adult female population size in the Roanoke River was estimated to be 5,224. With no transport, the model predicted a slow population increase over the next 30 years. Predicted population increases were highest when survival was improved during the first year of life. Transport was predicted to benefit the population only if high rates of effective fecundity and juvenile survival could be achieved. Currently, transported adults and young are less likely to successfully out-migrate than individuals below the dams, and the estimated adult population size is much smaller than either of two assumed values of carrying capacity for the lower river; therefore, transport is not predicted to help restore the stock under present conditions. Research on survival rates, density-dependent processes, and the impacts of structures to increase out-migration success would improve evaluation of the potential benefits of access to additional spawning habitat for American shad.

  1. Geographical variation of skull size and shape in various populations in the black giant squirrel.

    PubMed

    Endo, Hideki; Kimura, Junpei; Oshida, Tatsuo; Stafford, Brian J; Rerkamnuaychoke, Worawut; Nishida, Takao; Sasaki, Motoki; Hayashida, Akiko; Hayashi, Yoshihiro

    2004-10-01

    We osteometrically examined the skulls of the black giant squirrel (Ratufa bicolor) from three mainland populations (M. Malayan Peninsula, V. South Vietnam, and B. Burma, India and North Thailand) and from two island populations (T. Tioman, and S. Sumatra Islands). The skull in the Malayan peninsula population was significantly smaller than that of the two other mainland populations. It is consistent with Bergmann's rule as shown in the gray-bellied squirrel. The two island populations did not show obvious differences in comparison with the Malayan population in many measurements. In the proportion analysis eliminating the size factor, the differences among populations were not easily confirmed and we concluded that the osteological characters peculiar to each population could not be shown in this species. The first and second principal component scores of M, S, and T populations were intermingled, whereas the V and B populations of V and B were not separated in the chart. We pointed out that the morphological differences were demonstrated between northern and southern groups of the Isthmus of Kra in the mainland populations, and that the two island populations did not show the island-isolation effect in comparison with the M population. The adaptational variation related to feeding and locomotion could not be confirmed among populations of the black giant squirrel as shown in the proportion analysis. PMID:15528851

  2. When bigger is not better: intraspecific competition for pollination increases with population size in invasive milkweeds.

    PubMed

    Ward, Megan; Johnson, Steven D; Zalucki, Myron P

    2013-04-01

    One of the essential requirements for an introduced plant species to become invasive is an ability to reproduce outside the native range, particularly when initial populations are small. If a reproductive Allee effect is operating, plants in small populations will have reduced reproductive success relative to plants in larger populations. Alternatively, if plants in small populations experience less competition for pollination than those in large populations, they may actually have higher levels of reproductive success than plants in large populations. To resolve this uncertainty, we investigated how the per capita fecundity of plants was affected by population size in three invasive milkweed species. Field surveys of seed production in natural populations of different sizes but similar densities were conducted for three pollinator-dependent invasive species, namely Asclepias curassavica, Gomphocarpus fruticosus and G. physocarpus. Additionally, supplemental hand-pollinations were performed in small and large populations in order to determine whether reproductive output was limited by pollinator activity in these populations. Reproductive Allee effects were not detected in any of the study species. Instead, plants in small populations exhibited remarkably high levels of reproductive output compared to those in large populations. Increased fruit production following supplemental hand-pollinations suggested that the lower reproductive output of naturally pollinated plants in large populations is a consequence of pollen limitation rather than limitation due to abiotic resources. This is consistent with increased intraspecific competition for pollination amongst plants in large populations. It is likely that the invasion of these milkweed species in Australia has been enhanced because plants in small founding populations experience less intraspecific competition for pollinators than those in large populations, and thus have the ability to produce copious amounts of

  3. Historical Analysis of Genetic Variation Reveals Low Effective Population Size in a Northern Pike (Esox Lucius) Population

    PubMed Central

    Miller, L. M.; Kapuscinski, A. R.

    1997-01-01

    Effective population size (N(e)) of a natural fish population was estimated from temporal changes in allele frequencies at seven microsatellite loci. Use of a historical collection of fish scales made it possible to increase the precision of estimates by increasing the time interval between samples and to use an equation developed for discrete generations without correcting for demographic parameters. Estimates of N(e) for the time intervals 1961-1977 and 1977-1993 were 35 and 72, respectively. For the entire interval, 1961-1993, the estimate of N(e) was 48 when based on a weighted mean derived from the above two estimates or 125 when calculated from 1961 and 1993 samples only. Corresponding ratios of effective size to adult census size ranged from 0.03 to 0.14. An N(e) of 48 over a 32-year period would imply that this population lost as much as 8% of its heterozygosity in that time. Results suggest the potential for using genetic methods based on microsatellite loci data to compare historical trends in N(e) with population dynamic parameters. Such comparisons will help to evaluate the relationship between genetic diversity and long-term persistence of natural populations. PMID:9383067

  4. Contrasting dynamics of a mutator allele in asexual populations of differing size.

    PubMed

    Raynes, Yevgeniy; Gazzara, Matthew R; Sniegowski, Paul D

    2012-07-01

    Mutators have been shown to hitchhike in asexual populations when the anticipated beneficial mutation supply rate of the mutator subpopulation, NU(b) (for subpopulation of size N and beneficial mutation rate U(b)) exceeds that of the wild-type subpopulation. Here, we examine the effect of total population size on mutator dynamics in asexual experimental populations of Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Although mutators quickly hitchhike to fixation in smaller populations, mutator fixation requires more and more time as population size increases; this observed delay in mutator hitchhiking is consistent with the expected effect of clonal interference. Interestingly, despite their higher beneficial mutation supply rate, mutators are supplanted by the wild type in very large populations. We postulate that this striking reversal in mutator dynamics is caused by an interaction between clonal interference, the fitness cost of the mutator allele, and infrequent large-effect beneficial mutations in our experimental populations. Our work thus identifies a potential set of circumstances under which mutator hitchhiking can be inhibited in natural asexual populations, despite recent theoretical predictions that such populations should have a net tendency to evolve ever-higher genomic mutation rates.

  5. Nonidentifiability of population size from capture-recapture data with heterogeneous detection probabilities

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Link, W.A.

    2003-01-01

    Heterogeneity in detection probabilities has long been recognized as problematic in mark-recapture studies, and numerous models developed to accommodate its effects. Individual heterogeneity is especially problematic, in that reasonable alternative models may predict essentially identical observations from populations of substantially different sizes. Thus even with very large samples, the analyst will not be able to distinguish among reasonable models of heterogeneity, even though these yield quite distinct inferences about population size. The problem is illustrated with models for closed and open populations.

  6. Population variation and individual maximum size in two leech populations: energy extraction from cannibalism or niche widening?

    PubMed

    Persson, Lennart; Elliott, J Malcolm

    2013-05-01

    The theory of cannibal dynamics predicts a link between population dynamics and individual life history. In particular, increased individual growth has, in both modeling and empirical studies, been shown to result from a destabilization of population dynamics. We used data from a long-term study of the dynamics of two leech (Erpobdella octoculata) populations to test the hypothesis that maximum size should be higher in a cycling population; one of the study populations exhibited a delayed feedback cycle while the other population showed no sign of cyclicity. A hump-shaped relationship between individual mass of 1-year-old leeches and offspring density the previous year was present in both populations. As predicted from the theory, the maximum mass of individuals was much larger in the fluctuating population. In contrast to predictions, the higher growth rate was not related to energy extraction from cannibalism. Instead, the higher individual mass is suggested to be due to increased availability of resources due to a niche widening with increased individual body mass. The larger individual mass in the fluctuating population was related to a stronger correlation between the densities of 1-year-old individuals and 2-year-old individuals the following year in this population. Although cannibalism was the major mechanism regulating population dynamics, its importance was negligible in terms of providing cannibalizing individuals with energy subsequently increasing their fecundity. Instead, the study identifies a need for theoretical and empirical studies on the largely unstudied interplay between ontogenetic niche shifts and cannibalistic population dynamics. PMID:23053229

  7. Using pedigree reconstruction to estimate population size: genotypes are more than individually unique marks

    PubMed Central

    Creel, Scott; Rosenblatt, Elias

    2013-01-01

    Estimates of population size are critical for conservation and management, but accurate estimates are difficult to obtain for many species. Noninvasive genetic methods are increasingly used to estimate population size, particularly in elusive species such as large carnivores, which are difficult to count by most other methods. In most such studies, genotypes are treated simply as unique individual identifiers. Here, we develop a new estimator of population size based on pedigree reconstruction. The estimator accounts for individuals that were directly sampled, individuals that were not sampled but whose genotype could be inferred by pedigree reconstruction, and individuals that were not detected by either of these methods. Monte Carlo simulations show that the population estimate is unbiased and precise if sampling is of sufficient intensity and duration. Simulations also identified sampling conditions that can cause the method to overestimate or underestimate true population size; we present and discuss methods to correct these potential biases. The method detected 2–21% more individuals than were directly sampled across a broad range of simulated sampling schemes. Genotypes are more than unique identifiers, and the information about relationships in a set of genotypes can improve estimates of population size. PMID:23762516

  8. Factors determining the average body size of geographically separated Arctodiaptomus salinus (Daday, 1885) populations

    PubMed Central

    Anufriieva, Elena V.; Shadrin, Nickolai V.

    2014-01-01

    Arctodiaptomus salinus inhabits water bodies across Eurasia and North Africa. Based on our own data and that from the literature, we analyzed the influences of several factors on the intra- and inter-population variability of this species. A strong negative linear correlation between temperature and average body size in the Crimean and African populations was found, in which the parameters might be influenced by salinity. Meanwhile, asignificant negative correlation between female body size and the altitude of habitats was found by comparing body size in populations from different regions. Individuals from environments with highly varying abiotic parameters, e.g. temporary reservoirs, had a larger body size than individuals from permanent water bodies. The changes in average body mass in populations were at 11.4 times, whereas, those in individual metabolic activities were at 6.2 times. Moreover, two size groups of A. salinus in the Crimean and the Siberian lakes were observed. The ratio of female length to male length fluctuatedbetween 1.02 and 1.30. The average size of A. salinus in populations and its variations were determined by both genetic and environmental factors. However, the paritiesof these factors were unequal in either spatial or temporal scales. PMID:24668656

  9. Population Size and Cultural Evolution in Nonindustrial Food-Producing Societies

    PubMed Central

    Collard, Mark; Ruttle, April; Buchanan, Briggs; O’Brien, Michael J.

    2013-01-01

    Modeling work suggests that population size affects cultural evolution such that larger populations can be expected to have richer and more complex cultural repertoires than smaller populations. Empirical tests of this hypothesis, however, have yielded conflicting results. Here, we report a study in which we investigated whether the subsistence toolkits of small-scale food-producers are influenced by population size in the manner the hypothesis predicts. We applied simple linear and standard multiple regression analysis to data from 40 nonindustrial farming and pastoralist groups to test the hypothesis. Results were consistent with predictions of the hypothesis: both the richness and the complexity of the toolkits of the food-producers were positively and significantly influenced by population size in the simple linear regression analyses. The multiple regression analyses demonstrated that these relationships are independent of the effects of risk of resource failure, which is the other main factor that has been found to influence toolkit richness and complexity in nonindustrial groups. Thus, our study strongly suggests that population size influences cultural evolution in nonindustrial food-producing populations. PMID:24069153

  10. Intermittent breeding and constraints on litter size: consequences for effective population size per generation (Ne ) and per reproductive cycle (Nb ).

    PubMed

    Waples, Robin S; Antao, Tiago

    2014-06-01

    In iteroparous species, it is easier to estimate Nb (effective number of breeders in one reproductive cycle) than Ne (effective population size per generation). Nb can be used as a proxy for Ne and also can provide crucial insights into eco-evolutionary processes that occur during reproduction. We used analytical and numerical methods to evaluate effects of intermittent breeding and litter/clutch size on inbreeding Nb and Ne . Fixed or random litter sizes ≥ 3 have little effect on either effective-size parameter; however, in species (e.g., many large mammals) in which females can produce only one offspring per cycle, female Nb  = ∞ and overall Nb  = 4Nb (male) . Intermittent breeding reduces the pool of female breeders, which reduces both female and overall Nb ; reductions are larger in high-fecundity species with high juvenile mortality and increase when multiple reproductive cycles are skipped. Simulated data for six model species showed that both intermittent breeding and litter-size constraints increase Ne , but only slightly. We show how to quantitatively account for these effects, which are important to consider when (1) using Nb to estimate Ne , or (2) drawing inferences about male reproductive success based on estimates of female Nb . PMID:24611912

  11. Simulation of Micron-Sized Debris Populations in Low Earth Orbit

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Xu, Y.-L.; Matney, M.; Liou, J.-C.; Hyde, J. L.; Prior, T. G.

    2010-01-01

    The update of ORDEM2000, the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model, to its new version . ORDEM2010, is nearly complete. As a part of the ORDEM upgrade, this paper addresses the simulation of micro-debris (greater than 10 micron and smaller than 1 mm in size) populations in low Earth orbit. The principal data used in the modeling of the micron-sized debris populations are in-situ hypervelocity impact records, accumulated in post-flight damage surveys on the space-exposed surfaces of returned spacecrafts. The development of the micro-debris model populations follows the general approach to deriving other ORDEM2010-required input populations for various components and types of debris. This paper describes the key elements and major steps in the statistical inference of the ORDEM2010 micro-debris populations. A crucial step is the construction of a degradation/ejecta source model to provide prior information on the micron-sized objects (such as orbital and object-size distributions). Another critical step is to link model populations with data, which is rather involved. It demands detailed information on area-time/directionality for all the space-exposed elements of a shuttle orbiter and damage laws, which relate impact damage with the physical properties of a projectile and impact conditions such as impact angle and velocity. Also needed are model-predicted debris fluxes as a function of object size and impact velocity from all possible directions. In spite of the very limited quantity of the available shuttle impact data, the population-derivation process is satisfactorily stable. Final modeling results obtained from shuttle window and radiator impact data are reasonably convergent and consistent, especially for the debris populations with object-size thresholds at 10 and 100 micron.

  12. Simulation of Micron-Sized Debris Populations in Low Earth Orbit

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Xu, Y.-L.; Hyde, J. L.; Prior, T.; Matney, Mark

    2010-01-01

    The update of ORDEM2000, the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model, to its new version ORDEM2010, is nearly complete. As a part of the ORDEM upgrade, this paper addresses the simulation of micro-debris (greater than 10 m and smaller than 1 mm in size) populations in low Earth orbit. The principal data used in the modeling of the micron-sized debris populations are in-situ hypervelocity impact records, accumulated in post-flight damage surveys on the space-exposed surfaces of returned spacecrafts. The development of the micro-debris model populations follows the general approach to deriving other ORDEM2010-required input populations for various components and types of debris. This paper describes the key elements and major steps in the statistical inference of the ORDEM2010 micro-debris populations. A crucial step is the construction of a degradation/ejecta source model to provide prior information on the micron-sized objects (such as orbital and object-size distributions). Another critical step is to link model populations with data, which is rather involved. It demands detailed information on area-time/directionality for all the space-exposed elements of a shuttle orbiter and damage laws, which relate impact damage with the physical properties of a projectile and impact conditions such as impact angle and velocity. Also needed are model-predicted debris fluxes as a function of object size and impact velocity from all possible directions. In spite of the very limited quantity of the available shuttle impact data, the population-derivation process is satisfactorily stable. Final modeling results obtained from shuttle window and radiator impact data are reasonably convergent and consistent, especially for the debris populations with object-size thresholds at 10 and 100 m.

  13. Effects of Sample Size on Estimates of Population Growth Rates Calculated with Matrix Models

    PubMed Central

    Fiske, Ian J.; Bruna, Emilio M.; Bolker, Benjamin M.

    2008-01-01

    Background Matrix models are widely used to study the dynamics and demography of populations. An important but overlooked issue is how the number of individuals sampled influences estimates of the population growth rate (λ) calculated with matrix models. Even unbiased estimates of vital rates do not ensure unbiased estimates of λ–Jensen's Inequality implies that even when the estimates of the vital rates are accurate, small sample sizes lead to biased estimates of λ due to increased sampling variance. We investigated if sampling variability and the distribution of sampling effort among size classes lead to biases in estimates of λ. Methodology/Principal Findings Using data from a long-term field study of plant demography, we simulated the effects of sampling variance by drawing vital rates and calculating λ for increasingly larger populations drawn from a total population of 3842 plants. We then compared these estimates of λ with those based on the entire population and calculated the resulting bias. Finally, we conducted a review of the literature to determine the sample sizes typically used when parameterizing matrix models used to study plant demography. Conclusions/Significance We found significant bias at small sample sizes when survival was low (survival = 0.5), and that sampling with a more-realistic inverse J-shaped population structure exacerbated this bias. However our simulations also demonstrate that these biases rapidly become negligible with increasing sample sizes or as survival increases. For many of the sample sizes used in demographic studies, matrix models are probably robust to the biases resulting from sampling variance of vital rates. However, this conclusion may depend on the structure of populations or the distribution of sampling effort in ways that are unexplored. We suggest more intensive sampling of populations when individual survival is low and greater sampling of stages with high elasticities. PMID:18769483

  14. Socio-Economic Instability and the Scaling of Energy Use with Population Size

    PubMed Central

    DeLong, John P.; Burger, Oskar

    2015-01-01

    The size of the human population is relevant to the development of a sustainable world, yet the forces setting growth or declines in the human population are poorly understood. Generally, population growth rates depend on whether new individuals compete for the same energy (leading to Malthusian or density-dependent growth) or help to generate new energy (leading to exponential and super-exponential growth). It has been hypothesized that exponential and super-exponential growth in humans has resulted from carrying capacity, which is in part determined by energy availability, keeping pace with or exceeding the rate of population growth. We evaluated the relationship between energy use and population size for countries with long records of both and the world as a whole to assess whether energy yields are consistent with the idea of an increasing carrying capacity. We find that on average energy use has indeed kept pace with population size over long time periods. We also show, however, that the energy-population scaling exponent plummets during, and its temporal variability increases preceding, periods of social, political, technological, and environmental change. We suggest that efforts to increase the reliability of future energy yields may be essential for stabilizing both population growth and the global socio-economic system. PMID:26091499

  15. When phenology matters: age-size truncation alters population response to trophic mismatch.

    PubMed

    Ohlberger, Jan; Thackeray, Stephen J; Winfield, Ian J; Maberly, Stephen C; Vøllestad, L Asbjørn

    2014-10-22

    Climate-induced shifts in the timing of life-history events are a worldwide phenomenon, and these shifts can de-synchronize species interactions such as predator-prey relationships. In order to understand the ecological implications of altered seasonality, we need to consider how shifts in phenology interact with other agents of environmental change such as exploitation and disease spread, which commonly act to erode the demographic structure of wild populations. Using long-term observational data on the phenology and dynamics of a model predator-prey system (fish and zooplankton in Windermere, UK), we show that age-size truncation of the predator population alters the consequences of phenological mismatch for offspring survival and population abundance. Specifically, age-size truncation reduces intraspecific density regulation due to competition and cannibalism, and thereby amplifies the population sensitivity to climate-induced predator-prey asynchrony, which increases variability in predator abundance. High population variability poses major ecological and economic challenges as it can diminish sustainable harvest rates and increase the risk of population collapse. Our results stress the importance of maintaining within-population age-size diversity in order to buffer populations against phenological asynchrony, and highlight the need to consider interactive effects of environmental impacts if we are to understand and project complex ecological outcomes. PMID:25165767

  16. Socio-Economic Instability and the Scaling of Energy Use with Population Size.

    PubMed

    DeLong, John P; Burger, Oskar

    2015-01-01

    The size of the human population is relevant to the development of a sustainable world, yet the forces setting growth or declines in the human population are poorly understood. Generally, population growth rates depend on whether new individuals compete for the same energy (leading to Malthusian or density-dependent growth) or help to generate new energy (leading to exponential and super-exponential growth). It has been hypothesized that exponential and super-exponential growth in humans has resulted from carrying capacity, which is in part determined by energy availability, keeping pace with or exceeding the rate of population growth. We evaluated the relationship between energy use and population size for countries with long records of both and the world as a whole to assess whether energy yields are consistent with the idea of an increasing carrying capacity. We find that on average energy use has indeed kept pace with population size over long time periods. We also show, however, that the energy-population scaling exponent plummets during, and its temporal variability increases preceding, periods of social, political, technological, and environmental change. We suggest that efforts to increase the reliability of future energy yields may be essential for stabilizing both population growth and the global socio-economic system.

  17. Estimating the Size of Populations at High Risk for HIV Using Respondent-Driven Sampling Data

    PubMed Central

    Handcock, Mark S.; Gile, Krista J.; Mar, Corinne M.

    2015-01-01

    Summary The study of hard-to-reach populations presents significant challenges. Typically, a sampling frame is not available, and population members are difficult to identify or recruit from broader sampling frames. This is especially true of populations at high risk for HIV/AIDS. Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) is often used in such settings with the primary goal of estimating the prevalence of infection. In such populations, the number of people at risk for infection and the number of people infected are of fundamental importance. This article presents a case-study of the estimation of the size of the hard-to-reach population based on data collected through RDS. We study two populations of female sex workers and men-who-have-sex-with-men in El Salvador. The approach is Bayesian and we consider different forms of prior information, including using the UNAIDS population size guidelines for this region. We show that the method is able to quantify the amount of information on population size available in RDS samples. As separate validation, we compare our results to those estimated by extrapolating from a capture–recapture study of El Salvadorian cities. The results of our case-study are largely comparable to those of the capture–recapture study when they differ from the UNAIDS guidelines. Our method is widely applicable to data from RDS studies and we provide a software package to facilitate this. PMID:25585794

  18. Population Regulation in Magellanic Penguins: What Determines Changes in Colony Size?

    PubMed Central

    Pozzi, Luciana M.; Borboroglu, Pablo García; Boersma, P. Dee; Pascual, Miguel A.

    2015-01-01

    Seabirds are often studied at individual colonies, but the confounding effects of emigration and mortality processes in open populations may lead to inappropriate conclusions on the mechanisms underlying population changes. Magellanic penguin (Spheniscus magellanicus) colonies of variable population sizes are distributed along the Argentine coastline. In recent decades, several population and distributional changes have occurred, with some colonies declining and others newly established or increasing. We integrated data of eight colonies scattered along ∼ 600 km in Northern Patagonia (from 41°26´S, 65°01´W to 45°11´S, 66°30´W, Rio Negro and Chubut provinces) and conducted analysis in terms of their growth rates, production of young and of the dependence of those vital rates on colony age, size, and location. We contrasted population trends estimated from abundance data with those derived from population modeling to understand if observed growth rates were attainable under closed population scenarios. Population trends were inversely related to colony size, suggesting a density dependent growth pattern. All colonies located in the north—which were established during the last decades—increased at high rates, with the smallest, recently established colonies growing at the fastest rate. In central-southern Chubut, where colonies are the oldest, the largest breeding aggregations declined, but smaller colonies remained relatively stable. Results provided strong evidence that dispersal played a major role in driving local trends. Breeding success was higher in northern colonies, likely mediated by favorable oceanographic conditions. However, mean foraging distance and body condition of chicks at fledging were influenced by colony size. Recruitment of penguins in the northern area may have been triggered by a combination of density dependence, likely exacerbated by less favorable oceanographic conditions in the southern sector. Our results reaffirm the idea

  19. Population regulation in Magellanic penguins: what determines changes in colony size?

    PubMed

    Pozzi, Luciana M; García Borboroglu, Pablo; Boersma, P Dee; Pascual, Miguel A

    2015-01-01

    Seabirds are often studied at individual colonies, but the confounding effects of emigration and mortality processes in open populations may lead to inappropriate conclusions on the mechanisms underlying population changes. Magellanic penguin (Spheniscus magellanicus) colonies of variable population sizes are distributed along the Argentine coastline. In recent decades, several population and distributional changes have occurred, with some colonies declining and others newly established or increasing. We integrated data of eight colonies scattered along ∼600 km in Northern Patagonia (from 41°26´S, 65°01´W to 45°11´S, 66°30´W, Rio Negro and Chubut provinces) and conducted analysis in terms of their growth rates, production of young and of the dependence of those vital rates on colony age, size, and location. We contrasted population trends estimated from abundance data with those derived from population modeling to understand if observed growth rates were attainable under closed population scenarios. Population trends were inversely related to colony size, suggesting a density dependent growth pattern. All colonies located in the north--which were established during the last decades--increased at high rates, with the smallest, recently established colonies growing at the fastest rate. In central-southern Chubut, where colonies are the oldest, the largest breeding aggregations declined, but smaller colonies remained relatively stable. Results provided strong evidence that dispersal played a major role in driving local trends. Breeding success was higher in northern colonies, likely mediated by favorable oceanographic conditions. However, mean foraging distance and body condition of chicks at fledging were influenced by colony size. Recruitment of penguins in the northern area may have been triggered by a combination of density dependence, likely exacerbated by less favorable oceanographic conditions in the southern sector. Our results reaffirm the idea that

  20. Alu Insertion Polymorphisms and Human Evolution: Evidence for a Larger Population Size in Africa

    PubMed Central

    Stoneking, Mark; Fontius, Jennifer J.; Clifford, Stephanie L.; Soodyall, Himla; Arcot, Santosh S.; Saha, Nilmani; Jenkins, Trefor; Tahir, Mohammad A.; Deininger, Prescott L.; Batzer, Mark A.

    1997-01-01

    Alu insertion polymorphisms (polymorphisms consisting of the presence/absence of an Alu element at a particular chromosomal location) offer several advantages over other nuclear DNA polymorphisms for human evolution studies. First, they are typed by rapid, simple, PCR-based assays; second, they are stable polymorphisms—newly inserted Alu elements rarely undergo deletion; third, the presence of an Alu element represents identity by descent—the probability that different Alu elements would independently insert into the exact same chromosomal location is negligible; and fourth, the ancestral state is known with certainty to be the absence of an Alu element. We report here a study of 8 loci in 1500 individuals from 34 worldwide populations. African populations exhibit the most between-population differentiation, and the population tree is rooted in Africa; moreover, the estimated effective time of separation of African versus non-African populations is 137,000 ± 15,000 years ago, in accordance with other genetic data. However, a principal coordinates analysis indicates that populations from Sahul (Australia and New Guinea) are nearly as close to the hypothetical ancestor as are African populations, suggesting that there was an early expansion of tropical populations of our species. An analysis of heterozygosity versus genetic distance suggests that African populations have had a larger effective population size than non-African populations. Overall, these results support the African origin of modern humans in that an earlier expansion of the ancestors of African populations is indicated. PMID:9371742

  1. Effects of recruitment, growth, and exploitation on walleye population size structure in northern Wisconsin lakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hansen, Michael J.; Nate, Nancy A.

    2014-01-01

    We evaluated the dynamics of walleye Sander vitreus population size structure, as indexed by the proportional size distribution (PSD) of quality-length fish, in Escanaba Lake during 1967–2003 and in 204 other lakes in northern Wisconsin during 1990–2011. We estimated PSD from angler-caught walleyes in Escanaba Lake and from spring electrofishing in 204 other lakes, and then related PSD to annual estimates of recruitment to age-3, length at age 3, and annual angling exploitation rate. In Escanaba Lake during 1967–2003, annual estimates of PSD were highly dynamic, growth (positively) explained 35% of PSD variation, recruitment explained only 3% of PSD variation, and exploitation explained only 7% of PSD variation. In 204 other northern Wisconsin lakes during 1990–2011, PSD varied widely among lakes, recruitment (negatively) explained 29% of PSD variation, growth (positively) explained 21% of PSD variation, and exploitation explained only 4% of PSD variation. We conclude that population size structure was most strongly driven by recruitment and growth, rather than exploitation, in northern Wisconsin walleye populations. Studies of other species over wide spatial and temporal ranges of recruitment, growth, and mortality are needed to determine which dynamic rate most strongly influences population size structure of other species. Our findings indicate a need to be cautious about assuming exploitation is a strong driver of walleye population size structure.

  2. Population size vs. social connectedness - A gene-culture coevolutionary approach to cumulative cultural evolution.

    PubMed

    Kobayashi, Yutaka; Ohtsuki, Hisashi; Wakano, Joe Y

    2016-10-01

    It has long been debated if population size is a crucial determinant of the level of culture. While empirical results are mixed, recent theoretical studies suggest that social connectedness between people may be a more important factor than the size of the entire population. These models, however, do not take into account evolutionary responses of learning strategies determining the mode of transmission and innovation and are hence not suitable for predicting the long-term implications of parameters of interest. In the present paper, to address this issue, we provide a gene-culture coevolution model, in which the microscopic learning process of each individual is explicitly described as a continuous-time stochastic process and time allocation to social and individual learning is allowed to evolve. We have found that social connectedness has a larger impact on the equilibrium level of culture than population size especially when connectedness is weak and population size is large. This result, combined with those of previous culture-only models, points to the importance of studying separate effects of population size and internal social structure to better understand spatiotemporal variation in the level of culture. PMID:27402203

  3. Effective Size and F-Statistics of Subdivided Populations. II. Dioecious Species

    PubMed Central

    Wang, J.

    1997-01-01

    For a dioecious diploid population subdivided into an arbitrary number of subpopulations, we have derived recurrence equations for the inbreeding coefficient and coancestries between individuals within and among subpopulations and formulas for effective size and F-statistics. Stable population size and structure, discrete generations, autosomal inheritance, and the island migration model are assumed, and arbitrary distributions of the numbers of male and female progeny per family, different numbers and variable migration rates of males and females are incorporated in our derivation. Some published equations for effective size and F-statistics for a subdivided population are shown to be incorrect because several incorrect probabilities are used in the derivation. A more general equation for effective size is obtained by finding eigenvalue solutions to the recurrence equations for inbreeding coefficient and coancestry in this article, which reduces to the simple and familiar expressions derived by previous authors for the special case of a single unsubdivided population. Our general expressions for F-statistics also reduce to the classical results of WRIGHT's infinite island model and its extensions. It is shown that population structure is important in determining effective size and F-statistics and should be recognized and incorporated into programs for genetic conservation and evolution. PMID:9258688

  4. Population size vs. social connectedness - A gene-culture coevolutionary approach to cumulative cultural evolution.

    PubMed

    Kobayashi, Yutaka; Ohtsuki, Hisashi; Wakano, Joe Y

    2016-10-01

    It has long been debated if population size is a crucial determinant of the level of culture. While empirical results are mixed, recent theoretical studies suggest that social connectedness between people may be a more important factor than the size of the entire population. These models, however, do not take into account evolutionary responses of learning strategies determining the mode of transmission and innovation and are hence not suitable for predicting the long-term implications of parameters of interest. In the present paper, to address this issue, we provide a gene-culture coevolution model, in which the microscopic learning process of each individual is explicitly described as a continuous-time stochastic process and time allocation to social and individual learning is allowed to evolve. We have found that social connectedness has a larger impact on the equilibrium level of culture than population size especially when connectedness is weak and population size is large. This result, combined with those of previous culture-only models, points to the importance of studying separate effects of population size and internal social structure to better understand spatiotemporal variation in the level of culture.

  5. Circulating virus load determines the size of bottlenecks in viral populations progressing within a host.

    PubMed

    Gutiérrez, Serafín; Yvon, Michel; Pirolles, Elodie; Garzo, Eliza; Fereres, Alberto; Michalakis, Yannis; Blanc, Stéphane

    2012-01-01

    For any organism, population size, and fluctuations thereof, are of primary importance in determining the forces driving its evolution. This is particularly true for viruses--rapidly evolving entities that form populations with transient and explosive expansions alternating with phases of migration, resulting in strong population bottlenecks and associated founder effects that increase genetic drift. A typical illustration of this pattern is the progression of viral disease within a eukaryotic host, where such demographic fluctuations are a key factor in the emergence of new variants with altered virulence. Viruses initiate replication in one or only a few infection foci, then move through the vasculature to seed secondary infection sites and so invade distant organs and tissues. Founder effects during this within-host colonization might depend on the concentration of infectious units accumulating and circulating in the vasculature, as this represents the infection dose reaching new organs or "territories". Surprisingly, whether or not the easily measurable circulating (plasma) virus load directly drives the size of population bottlenecks during host colonization has not been documented in animal viruses, while in plants the virus load within the sap has never been estimated. Here, we address this important question by monitoring both the virus concentration flowing in host plant sap, and the number of viral genomes founding the population in each successive new leaf. Our results clearly indicate that the concentration of circulating viruses directly determines the size of bottlenecks, which hence controls founder effects and effective population size during disease progression within a host.

  6. Transition Densities and Sample Frequency Spectra of Diffusion Processes with Selection and Variable Population Size

    PubMed Central

    Živković, Daniel; Steinrücken, Matthias; Song, Yun S.; Stephan, Wolfgang

    2015-01-01

    Advances in empirical population genetics have made apparent the need for models that simultaneously account for selection and demography. To address this need, we here study the Wright–Fisher diffusion under selection and variable effective population size. In the case of genic selection and piecewise-constant effective population sizes, we obtain the transition density by extending a recently developed method for computing an accurate spectral representation for a constant population size. Utilizing this extension, we show how to compute the sample frequency spectrum in the presence of genic selection and an arbitrary number of instantaneous changes in the effective population size. We also develop an alternate, efficient algorithm for computing the sample frequency spectrum using a moment-based approach. We apply these methods to answer the following questions: If neutrality is incorrectly assumed when there is selection, what effects does it have on demographic parameter estimation? Can the impact of negative selection be observed in populations that undergo strong exponential growth? PMID:25873633

  7. Circulating virus load determines the size of bottlenecks in viral populations progressing within a host.

    PubMed

    Gutiérrez, Serafín; Yvon, Michel; Pirolles, Elodie; Garzo, Eliza; Fereres, Alberto; Michalakis, Yannis; Blanc, Stéphane

    2012-01-01

    For any organism, population size, and fluctuations thereof, are of primary importance in determining the forces driving its evolution. This is particularly true for viruses--rapidly evolving entities that form populations with transient and explosive expansions alternating with phases of migration, resulting in strong population bottlenecks and associated founder effects that increase genetic drift. A typical illustration of this pattern is the progression of viral disease within a eukaryotic host, where such demographic fluctuations are a key factor in the emergence of new variants with altered virulence. Viruses initiate replication in one or only a few infection foci, then move through the vasculature to seed secondary infection sites and so invade distant organs and tissues. Founder effects during this within-host colonization might depend on the concentration of infectious units accumulating and circulating in the vasculature, as this represents the infection dose reaching new organs or "territories". Surprisingly, whether or not the easily measurable circulating (plasma) virus load directly drives the size of population bottlenecks during host colonization has not been documented in animal viruses, while in plants the virus load within the sap has never been estimated. Here, we address this important question by monitoring both the virus concentration flowing in host plant sap, and the number of viral genomes founding the population in each successive new leaf. Our results clearly indicate that the concentration of circulating viruses directly determines the size of bottlenecks, which hence controls founder effects and effective population size during disease progression within a host. PMID:23133389

  8. Population Variation Reveals Independent Selection toward Small Body Size in Chinese Debao Pony

    PubMed Central

    Kader, Adiljan; Li, Yan; Dong, Kunzhe; Irwin, David M.; Zhao, Qianjun; He, Xiaohong; Liu, Jianfeng; Pu, Yabin; Gorkhali, Neena Amatya; Liu, Xuexue; Jiang, Lin; Li, Xiangchen; Guan, Weijun; Zhang, Yaping; Wu, Dong-Dong; Ma, Yuehui

    2016-01-01

    Body size, one of the most important quantitative traits under evolutionary scrutiny, varies considerably among species and among populations within species. Revealing the genetic basis underlying this variation is very important, particularly in humans where there is a close relationship with diseases and in domestic animals as the selective patterns are associated with improvements in production traits. The Debao pony is a horse breed with small body size that is unique to China; however, it is unknown whether the size-related candidate genes identified in Western breeds also account for the small body size of the Debao pony. Here, we compared individual horses from the Debao population with other two Chinese horse populations using single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) identified with the Equine SNP 65 Bead Chip. The previously reported size-related candidate gene HMGA2 showed a significant signature for selection, consistent with its role observed in human populations. More interestingly, we found a candidate gene TBX3, which had not been observed in previous studies on horse body size that displayed the highest differentiation and most significant association, and thus likely is the dominating factor for the small stature of the Debao pony. Further comparison between the Debao pony and other breeds of horses from around the world demonstrated that TBX3 was selected independently in the Debao pony, suggesting that there were multiple origins of small stature in the horse. PMID:26637467

  9. Effects of host-plant population size and plant sex on a specialist leaf-miner

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bañuelos, María-José; Kollmann, Johannes

    2011-03-01

    Animal population density has been related to resource patch size through various hypotheses such as those derived from island biogeography and resource concentration theory. This theoretical framework can be also applied to plant-herbivore interactions, and it can be modified by the sex of the host-plant, and density-dependent relationships. Leaf-miners are specialised herbivores that leave distinct traces on infested leaves in the form of egg scars, mines, signs of predation and emergence holes. This allows the life cycle of the insect to be reconstructed and the success at the different stages to be estimated. The main stages of the leaf-miner Phytomyza ilicis were recorded in eleven populations of the evergreen host Ilex aquifolium in Denmark. Survival rates were calculated and related to population size, sex of the host plant, and egg and mine densities. Host population size was negatively related to leaf-miner prevalence, with larger egg and mine densities in small populations. Percentage of eggs hatching and developing into mines, and percentage of adult flies emerging from mines also differed among host populations, but were not related to population size or host cover. Feeding punctures left by adults were marginally more frequent on male plants, whereas egg scars and mines were more common on females. Overall survival rate from egg stage to adult emergence was higher on female plants. Egg density was negatively correlated with hatching, while mine density was positively correlated with emergence of the larvae. The inverse effects of host population size were not in line with predictions based on island biogeography and resource concentration theory. We discuss how a thorough knowledge of the immigration behaviour of this fly might help to understand the patterns found.

  10. Are heritability and selection related to population size in nature? Meta-analysis and conservation implications.

    PubMed

    Wood, Jacquelyn L A; Yates, Matthew C; Fraser, Dylan J

    2016-06-01

    It is widely thought that small populations should have less additive genetic variance and respond less efficiently to natural selection than large populations. Across taxa, we meta-analytically quantified the relationship between adult census population size (N) and additive genetic variance (proxy: h (2)) and found no reduction in h (2) with decreasing N; surveyed populations ranged from four to one million individuals (1735 h (2) estimates, 146 populations, 83 species). In terms of adaptation, ecological conditions may systematically differ between populations of varying N; the magnitude of selection these populations experience may therefore also differ. We thus also meta-analytically tested whether selection changes with N and found little evidence for systematic differences in the strength, direction or form of selection with N across different trait types and taxa (7344 selection estimates, 172 populations, 80 species). Collectively, our results (i) indirectly suggest that genetic drift neither overwhelms selection more in small than in large natural populations, nor weakens adaptive potential/h (2) in small populations, and (ii) imply that natural populations of varying sizes experience a variety of environmental conditions, without consistently differing habitat quality at small N. However, we caution that the data are currently insufficient to determine whether some small populations may retain adaptive potential definitively. Further study is required into (i) selection and genetic variation in completely isolated populations of known N, under-represented taxonomic groups, and nongeneralist species, (ii) adaptive potential using multidimensional approaches and (iii) the nature of selective pressures for specific traits. PMID:27247616

  11. Size-frequency distribution of crater populations in equilibrium on the Moon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiao, Zhiyong; Werner, Stephanie C.

    2015-12-01

    Overprinting of craters by subsequent impacts and topographic degradation complicates crater statistics, especially for old surfaces and small-diameter crater populations. A crater population is regarded as in equilibrium at a particular crater size when smaller craters are being produced at the same rate at which they are being destroyed. Evaluating the equilibrium state of crater populations is challenging, and empirical equilibrium densities are frequently inferred. By performing careful crater counts and cross comparisons on several lunar surfaces, we study the size-frequency distributions (SFD) for the crater populations, which have portions in equilibrium. The results are one of the few observational constraints on the SFD of crater populations in equilibrium, showing that referring to empirical equilibrium densities is not safe for evaluating the equilibrium states of crater populations. Equilibrium densities are not positively correlated with the ages of crater populations, and some populations in equilibrium have crater densities less than those previously believed to represent equilibrium conditions. Besides the SFD of the production population, different crater removal rates at different diameters also affect the SFD of crater populations in equilibrium. The equilibrium onset diameter (Deq) of a crater population can be translated to model ages because older populations have larger Deq, and those for same-aged surfaces are comparable. We show that the crater populations studied here are in equilibrium at much smaller diameters than those predicted for same-aged surfaces by crater degradation models, thus indicating lower crater degradation rates on the Moon, and/or younger ages of the counting areas.

  12. Assessment of Aedes albopictus (Skuse) (Diptera: Culicidae) clutch size in wild and laboratory populations.

    PubMed

    Davis, Timothy J; Kline, Daniel L; Kaufman, Phillip E

    2016-06-01

    Aedes albopictus (Skuse) is an invasive mosquito species found across the southern U.S. with range expansion into many northern states. Intra- and interspecific larval competition have been evaluated for Ae. albopictus with respect to subsequent adult size, immature and adult survivability, and its capacity to vector pathogens as an adult. However, limited data are available on egg production as related to larval rearing conditions. Because Ae. albopictus is a container-inhabiting mosquito that oviposits in resource-limited habitats, it is found under variable density-dependent conditions. Therefore, we examined the impact of specific rearing conditions on Ae. albopictus clutch size and adult body size; comparing the egg production values and wing lengths from known developmental densities to those from field-collected populations. Field populations varied significantly among collection sites in mean clutch size (23 to 46). These clutch sizes were comparable to the mean clutch sizes of females reared at the larval densities of nine (20 eggs) and three (53 eggs) larvae per 3 ml of water in the laboratory. Field populations experienced density-dependent effects impacting adult mosquito size. Mosquitoes from the four sample sites had mean wing lengths of 1.99, 2.47, 2.51, and 2.54 mm, which were less than the mean wing length of mosquitoes reared at larval densities of three larvae per 3 ml of water (2.57 mm). PMID:27232119

  13. Population size estimation in Yellowstone wolves with error-prone noninvasive microsatellite genotypes.

    PubMed

    Creel, Scott; Spong, Goran; Sands, Jennifer L; Rotella, Jay; Zeigle, Janet; Joe, Lawrence; Murphy, Kerry M; Smith, Douglas

    2003-07-01

    Determining population sizes can be difficult, but is essential for conservation. By counting distinct microsatellite genotypes, DNA from noninvasive samples (hair, faeces) allows estimation of population size. Problems arise because genotypes from noninvasive samples are error-prone, but genotyping errors can be reduced by multiple polymerase chain reaction (PCR). For faecal genotypes from wolves in Yellowstone National Park, error rates varied substantially among samples, often above the 'worst-case threshold' suggested by simulation. Consequently, a substantial proportion of multilocus genotypes held one or more errors, despite multiple PCR. These genotyping errors created several genotypes per individual and caused overestimation (up to 5.5-fold) of population size. We propose a 'matching approach' to eliminate this overestimation bias. PMID:12803649

  14. Host Plant Determines the Population Size of an Obligate Symbiont (Buchnera aphidicola) in Aphids.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Yuan-Chen; Cao, Wen-Jie; Zhong, Le-Rong; Godfray, H Charles J; Liu, Xiang-Dong

    2016-04-01

    Buchnera aphidicolais an obligate endosymbiont that provides aphids with several essential nutrients. Though much is known about aphid-Buchnera interactions, the effect of the host plant on Buchnera population size remains unclear. Here we used quantitative PCR (qPCR) techniques to explore the effects of the host plant on Buchnera densities in the cotton-melon aphid, Aphis gossypii Buchneratiters were significantly higher in populations that had been reared on cucumber for over 10 years than in populations maintained on cotton for a similar length of time. Aphids collected in the wild from hibiscus and zucchini harbored more Buchnera symbionts than those collected from cucumber and cotton. The effect of aphid genotype on the population size of Buchnera depended on the host plant upon which they fed. When aphids from populations maintained on cucumber or cotton were transferred to novel host plants, host survival and Buchnera population size fluctuated markedly for the first two generations before becoming relatively stable in the third and later generations. Host plant extracts from cucumber, pumpkin, zucchini, and cowpea added to artificial diets led to a significant increase in Buchnera titers in the aphids from the population reared on cotton, while plant extracts from cotton and zucchini led to a decrease in Buchnera titers in the aphids reared on cucumber. Gossypol, a secondary metabolite from cotton, suppressed Buchnera populations in populations from both cotton and cucumber, while cucurbitacin from cucurbit plants led to higher densities. Together, the results suggest that host plants influence Buchnera population processes and that this may provide phenotypic plasticity in host plant use for clonal aphids. PMID:26850304

  15. Host Plant Determines the Population Size of an Obligate Symbiont (Buchnera aphidicola) in Aphids

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Yuan-Chen; Cao, Wen-Jie; Zhong, Le-Rong; Godfray, H. Charles J.

    2016-01-01

    Buchnera aphidicola is an obligate endosymbiont that provides aphids with several essential nutrients. Though much is known about aphid-Buchnera interactions, the effect of the host plant on Buchnera population size remains unclear. Here we used quantitative PCR (qPCR) techniques to explore the effects of the host plant on Buchnera densities in the cotton-melon aphid, Aphis gossypii. Buchnera titers were significantly higher in populations that had been reared on cucumber for over 10 years than in populations maintained on cotton for a similar length of time. Aphids collected in the wild from hibiscus and zucchini harbored more Buchnera symbionts than those collected from cucumber and cotton. The effect of aphid genotype on the population size of Buchnera depended on the host plant upon which they fed. When aphids from populations maintained on cucumber or cotton were transferred to novel host plants, host survival and Buchnera population size fluctuated markedly for the first two generations before becoming relatively stable in the third and later generations. Host plant extracts from cucumber, pumpkin, zucchini, and cowpea added to artificial diets led to a significant increase in Buchnera titers in the aphids from the population reared on cotton, while plant extracts from cotton and zucchini led to a decrease in Buchnera titers in the aphids reared on cucumber. Gossypol, a secondary metabolite from cotton, suppressed Buchnera populations in populations from both cotton and cucumber, while cucurbitacin from cucurbit plants led to higher densities. Together, the results suggest that host plants influence Buchnera population processes and that this may provide phenotypic plasticity in host plant use for clonal aphids. PMID:26850304

  16. Host Plant Determines the Population Size of an Obligate Symbiont (Buchnera aphidicola) in Aphids.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Yuan-Chen; Cao, Wen-Jie; Zhong, Le-Rong; Godfray, H Charles J; Liu, Xiang-Dong

    2016-04-01

    Buchnera aphidicolais an obligate endosymbiont that provides aphids with several essential nutrients. Though much is known about aphid-Buchnera interactions, the effect of the host plant on Buchnera population size remains unclear. Here we used quantitative PCR (qPCR) techniques to explore the effects of the host plant on Buchnera densities in the cotton-melon aphid, Aphis gossypii Buchneratiters were significantly higher in populations that had been reared on cucumber for over 10 years than in populations maintained on cotton for a similar length of time. Aphids collected in the wild from hibiscus and zucchini harbored more Buchnera symbionts than those collected from cucumber and cotton. The effect of aphid genotype on the population size of Buchnera depended on the host plant upon which they fed. When aphids from populations maintained on cucumber or cotton were transferred to novel host plants, host survival and Buchnera population size fluctuated markedly for the first two generations before becoming relatively stable in the third and later generations. Host plant extracts from cucumber, pumpkin, zucchini, and cowpea added to artificial diets led to a significant increase in Buchnera titers in the aphids from the population reared on cotton, while plant extracts from cotton and zucchini led to a decrease in Buchnera titers in the aphids reared on cucumber. Gossypol, a secondary metabolite from cotton, suppressed Buchnera populations in populations from both cotton and cucumber, while cucurbitacin from cucurbit plants led to higher densities. Together, the results suggest that host plants influence Buchnera population processes and that this may provide phenotypic plasticity in host plant use for clonal aphids.

  17. Metapopulation effective size and conservation genetic goals for the Fennoscandian wolf (Canis lupus) population.

    PubMed

    Laikre, L; Olsson, F; Jansson, E; Hössjer, O; Ryman, N

    2016-10-01

    The Scandinavian wolf population descends from only five individuals, is isolated, highly inbred and exhibits inbreeding depression. To meet international conservation goals, suggestions include managing subdivided wolf populations over Fennoscandia as a metapopulation; a genetically effective population size of Ne⩾500, in line with the widely accepted long-term genetic viability target, might be attainable with gene flow among subpopulations of Scandinavia, Finland and Russian parts of Fennoscandia. Analytical means for modeling Ne of subdivided populations under such non-idealized situations have been missing, but we recently developed new mathematical methods for exploring inbreeding dynamics and effective population size of complex metapopulations. We apply this theory to the Fennoscandian wolves using empirical estimates of demographic parameters. We suggest that the long-term conservation genetic target for metapopulations should imply that inbreeding rates in the total system and in the separate subpopulations should not exceed Δf=0.001. This implies a meta-Ne of NeMeta⩾500 and a realized effective size of each subpopulation of NeRx⩾500. With current local effective population sizes and one migrant per generation, as recommended by management guidelines, the meta-Ne that can be reached is ~250. Unidirectional gene flow from Finland to Scandinavia reduces meta-Ne to ~130. Our results indicate that both local subpopulation effective sizes and migration among subpopulations must increase substantially from current levels to meet the conservation target. Alternatively, immigration from a large (Ne⩾500) population in northwestern Russia could support the Fennoscandian metapopulation, but immigration must be substantial (5-10 effective immigrants per generation) and migration among Fennoscandian subpopulations must nevertheless increase. PMID:27328654

  18. Metapopulation effective size and conservation genetic goals for the Fennoscandian wolf (Canis lupus) population

    PubMed Central

    Laikre, L; Olsson, F; Jansson, E; Hössjer, O; Ryman, N

    2016-01-01

    The Scandinavian wolf population descends from only five individuals, is isolated, highly inbred and exhibits inbreeding depression. To meet international conservation goals, suggestions include managing subdivided wolf populations over Fennoscandia as a metapopulation; a genetically effective population size of Ne⩾500, in line with the widely accepted long-term genetic viability target, might be attainable with gene flow among subpopulations of Scandinavia, Finland and Russian parts of Fennoscandia. Analytical means for modeling Ne of subdivided populations under such non-idealized situations have been missing, but we recently developed new mathematical methods for exploring inbreeding dynamics and effective population size of complex metapopulations. We apply this theory to the Fennoscandian wolves using empirical estimates of demographic parameters. We suggest that the long-term conservation genetic target for metapopulations should imply that inbreeding rates in the total system and in the separate subpopulations should not exceed Δf=0.001. This implies a meta-Ne of NeMeta⩾500 and a realized effective size of each subpopulation of NeRx⩾500. With current local effective population sizes and one migrant per generation, as recommended by management guidelines, the meta-Ne that can be reached is ~250. Unidirectional gene flow from Finland to Scandinavia reduces meta-Ne to ~130. Our results indicate that both local subpopulation effective sizes and migration among subpopulations must increase substantially from current levels to meet the conservation target. Alternatively, immigration from a large (Ne⩾500) population in northwestern Russia could support the Fennoscandian metapopulation, but immigration must be substantial (5–10 effective immigrants per generation) and migration among Fennoscandian subpopulations must nevertheless increase. PMID:27328654

  19. The genetics of rhizosheath size in a multiparent mapping population of wheat

    PubMed Central

    Delhaize, Emmanuel; Rathjen, Tina M.; Cavanagh, Colin R.

    2015-01-01

    Rhizosheaths comprise soil that adheres to plant roots and, in some species, are indicative of root hair length. In this study, the genetics of rhizosheath size in wheat was investigated by screening the progeny of multiparent advanced generation intercrosses (MAGIC). Two MAGIC populations were screened for rhizosheath size using a high throughput method. One MAGIC population was developed from intercrosses between four parents (4-way) and the other from intercrosses between eight parents (8-way). Transgressive segregation for rhizosheath size was observed in both the 4-way and 8-way MAGIC populations. A quantitative trait loci (QTL) analysis of the 4-way population identified six major loci located on chromosomes 2B, 4D, 5A, 5B, 6A, and 7A together accounting for 42% of the variation in rhizosheath size. Rhizosheath size was strongly correlated with root hair length and was robust across different soil types in the absence of chemical constraints. Rhizosheath size in the MAGIC populations was a reliable surrogate for root hair length and, therefore, the QTL identified probably control root hair elongation. Members of the basic helix-loop-helix family of transcription factors have previously been identified to regulate root hair length in Arabidopsis and rice. Since several wheat members of the basic helix-loop-helix family of genes are located within or near the QTL, these genes are candidates for controlling the long root hair trait. The QTL for rhizosheath size identified in this study provides the opportunity to implement marker-assisted selection to increase root hair length for improved phosphate acquisition in wheat. PMID:25969556

  20. Nautilus at risk--estimating population size and demography of Nautilus pompilius.

    PubMed

    Dunstan, Andrew; Bradshaw, Corey J A; Marshall, Justin

    2011-02-10

    The low fecundity, late maturity, long gestation and long life span of Nautilus suggest that this species is vulnerable to over-exploitation. Demand from the ornamental shell trade has contributed to their rapid decline in localized populations. More data from wild populations are needed to design management plans which ensure Nautilus persistence. We used a variety of techniques including capture-mark-recapture, baited remote underwater video systems, ultrasonic telemetry and remotely operated vehicles to estimate population size, growth rates, distribution and demographic characteristics of an unexploited Nautilus pompilius population at Osprey Reef (Coral Sea, Australia). We estimated a small and dispersed population of between 844 and 4467 individuals (14.6-77.4 km(-2)) dominated by males (83:17 male:female) and comprised of few juveniles (<10%).These results provide the first Nautilid population and density estimates which are essential elements for long-term management of populations via sustainable catch models. Results from baited remote underwater video systems provide confidence for their more widespread use to assess efficiently the size and density of exploited and unexploited Nautilus populations worldwide.

  1. Nautilus at Risk – Estimating Population Size and Demography of Nautilus pompilius

    PubMed Central

    Dunstan, Andrew; Bradshaw, Corey J. A.; Marshall, Justin

    2011-01-01

    The low fecundity, late maturity, long gestation and long life span of Nautilus suggest that this species is vulnerable to over-exploitation. Demand from the ornamental shell trade has contributed to their rapid decline in localized populations. More data from wild populations are needed to design management plans which ensure Nautilus persistence. We used a variety of techniques including capture-mark-recapture, baited remote underwater video systems, ultrasonic telemetry and remotely operated vehicles to estimate population size, growth rates, distribution and demographic characteristics of an unexploited Nautilus pompilius population at Osprey Reef (Coral Sea, Australia). We estimated a small and dispersed population of between 844 and 4467 individuals (14.6–77.4 km−2) dominated by males (83∶17 male∶female) and comprised of few juveniles (<10%).These results provide the first Nautilid population and density estimates which are essential elements for long-term management of populations via sustainable catch models. Results from baited remote underwater video systems provide confidence for their more widespread use to assess efficiently the size and density of exploited and unexploited Nautilus populations worldwide. PMID:21347360

  2. Increased Selection Response in Larger Populations. II. Selection for Ethanol Vapor Resistance in Drosophila Melanogaster at Two Population Sizes

    PubMed Central

    Weber, K. E.; Diggins, L. T.

    1990-01-01

    The effect of large population size on selection response was investigated using Drosophila melanogaster, with four ``small'' lines of 160 selected parents/generation compared to two ``large'' lines of 1600 selected parents/generation. All lines were selected under similar conditions at a selection intensity of approximately 0.55 standard deviations, for 65 generations, for increased ethanol vapor resistance (measured in minutes required to become anesthetized). Two unselected control lines of 320 parents/generation were also maintained. A significant effect of population size was found. The final treatment means and standard errors were: 27.91 +/- 1.28 min (two ``large'' lines); 19.40 +/- 1.54 min (four ``small'' lines); and 4.98 +/- 0.35 min (two control lines). To estimate the mutation rate for the trait, two isogenic lines of about 400 selected parents were selected for 29 generations. The mean increase in additive genetic variance per generation was 0.0009 times the initial environmental variance of the outbred lines. This is comparable to other reported mutation rates. Mutation can explain part of the difference in evolved resistance between treatments, but it appears that even at rather large population sizes, a large difference in long-term response can be obtained in larger outbred lines, from more complete utilization of the initial genetic variation. PMID:2116359

  3. Description and validation of a method for simultaneous estimation of effective population size and mutation rate from human population data.

    PubMed Central

    Chakraborty, R; Neel, J V

    1989-01-01

    A method is presented for utilizing population data on electrophoretic variants of proteins to estimate simultaneously the effective sizes (Ne values) of the populations in question and the rate of mutation resulting in electromorphs at the loci whose products were surveyed. The method is applied to data from 12 relatively unacculturated Amerindian tribes for whom census data and independent estimates of the number of different electrophoretic variants at 27 loci are available. Because of tribal demographic structure, Ne should be less than the current number of reproductive-aged adults. In fact, it is substantially greater for 7 tribes, most likely due to intertribal migration and a recent decrease in tribal size. Estimates of locus mutation rates for the 27 loci vary by more than a factor of 20, with an average of 1.1 x 10(-5) per locus per generation. This latter estimate is in satisfactory agreement with the results of other indirect approaches to the estimation of mutation rates in these tribes but about two times higher than the results of direct estimates based on these same loci in studies on civilized populations. This discrepancy could be due to the above-hypothesized migration and to decreases in tribal size. PMID:2594777

  4. Linkage Disequilibrium Estimation of Effective Population Size with Immigrants from Divergent Populations: A Case Study on Spanish Mackerel (Scomberomorus commerson).

    PubMed

    Macbeth, Gilbert Michael; Broderick, Damien; Buckworth, Rik C; Ovenden, Jennifer R

    2013-03-11

    Estimates of genetic effective population size (Ne) using molecular markers are a potentially useful tool for the management of endangered through to commercial species. But, pitfalls are predicted when the effective size is large, as estimates require large numbers of samples from wild populations for statistical validity. Our simulations showed that linkage disequilibrium estimates of Ne up to 10,000 with finite confidence limits can be achieved with sample sizes around 5000. This was deduced from empirical allele frequencies of seven polymorphic microsatellite loci in a commercially harvested fisheries species, the narrow barred Spanish mackerel (Scomberomorus commerson). As expected, the smallest standard deviation of Ne estimates occurred when low frequency alleles were excluded. Additional simulations indicated that the linkage disequilibrium method was sensitive to small numbers of genotypes from cryptic species or conspecific immigrants. A correspondence analysis algorithm was developed to detect and remove outlier genotypes that could possibly be inadvertently sampled from cryptic species or non-breeding immigrants from genetically separate populations. Simulations demonstrated the value of this approach in Spanish mackerel data. When putative immigrants were removed from the empirical data, 95% of the Ne estimates from jacknife resampling were above 24,000.

  5. Size-dependent mortality induces life-history changes mediated through population dynamical feedbacks.

    PubMed

    van Kooten, Tobias; Persson, Lennart; de Roos, André M

    2007-08-01

    The majority of taxa grow significantly during life history, which often leads to individuals of the same species having different ecological roles, depending on their size or life stage. One aspect of life history that changes during ontogeny is mortality. When individual growth and development are resource dependent, changes in mortality can affect the outcome of size-dependent intraspecific resource competition, in turn affecting both life history and population dynamics. We study the outcome of varying size-dependent mortality on two life-history types, one that feeds on the same resource throughout life history and another that can alternatively cannibalize smaller conspecifics. Compensatory responses in the life history dampen the effect of certain types of size-dependent mortality, while other types of mortality lead to dramatic changes in life history and population dynamics, including population (de-)stabilization, and the growth of cannibalistic giants. These responses differ strongly among the two life-history types. Our analysis provides a mechanistic understanding of the population-level effects that come about through the interaction between individual growth and size-dependent mortality, mediated by resource dependence in individual vital rates. PMID:17874376

  6. Impact of population size on market demand under a market economy.

    PubMed

    Li, Y

    1996-01-01

    This article presents an analysis of the relationship between population size and market demand in China. It is argued that a smaller elasticity of a product is related to a greater impact of the size of population on the consumption of such a product. Greater elasticity reduces the impact of population. The impact of population is also mediated by average salary and salary structure. Salary structure affects prices, and prices affect supply and demand, which affect consumption. In a market-oriented economic system, the impact of population size on market demand affects supply and demand and prices. Current market demand reflects the effect of supply and demand in previous periods. Current population size will affect future market demand through prices and supply elasticity. Population changes are slow, and consumption changes are slow. The slowness of the process of change means there is time to adjust production and distribution in order to achieve stability in market supply. Control of price increases and inflation will promote economic growth, social stability, and improvement in China's socialist market economic system. It is argued that the supply of bicycles is elastic. Despite increased investment, labor, and fixed assets, profits will not grow. However the entertainment industry, as well as education, public welfare, urban utilities, noncommercialized housing, and telephones are less elastic. A large consumer population and a smaller supply elasticity result in high costs of installation, which are made higher by the state monopoly. It is argued that in China it is necessary to regulate certain necessities with less market elasticity in order to be consistent with optimum allocation of resources.

  7. cloncase: Estimation of sex frequency and effective population size by clonemate resampling in partially clonal organisms.

    PubMed

    Ali, Sajid; Soubeyrand, Samuel; Gladieux, Pierre; Giraud, Tatiana; Leconte, Marc; Gautier, Angélique; Mboup, Mamadou; Chen, Wanquan; de Vallavieille-Pope, Claude; Enjalbert, Jérôme

    2016-07-01

    Inferring reproductive and demographic parameters of populations is crucial to our understanding of species ecology and evolutionary potential but can be challenging, especially in partially clonal organisms. Here, we describe a new and accurate method, cloncase, for estimating both the rate of sexual vs. asexual reproduction and the effective population size, based on the frequency of clonemate resampling across generations. Simulations showed that our method provides reliable estimates of sex frequency and effective population size for a wide range of parameters. The cloncase method was applied to Puccinia striiformis f.sp. tritici, a fungal pathogen causing stripe/yellow rust, an important wheat disease. This fungus is highly clonal in Europe but has been suggested to recombine in Asia. Using two temporally spaced samples of P. striiformis f.sp. tritici in China, the estimated sex frequency was 75% (i.e. three-quarter of individuals being sexually derived during the yearly sexual cycle), indicating strong contribution of sexual reproduction to the life cycle of the pathogen in this area. The inferred effective population size of this partially clonal organism (Nc  = 998) was in good agreement with estimates obtained using methods based on temporal variations in allelic frequencies. The cloncase estimator presented herein is the first method allowing accurate inference of both sex frequency and effective population size from population data without knowledge of recombination or mutation rates. cloncase can be applied to population genetic data from any organism with cyclical parthenogenesis and should in particular be very useful for improving our understanding of pest and microbial population biology. PMID:26858112

  8. The influence of simulated exploitation on Patella vulgata populations: protandric sex change is size-dependent.

    PubMed

    Borges, Carla D G; Hawkins, Stephen J; Crowe, Tasman P; Doncaster, C Patrick

    2016-01-01

    Grazing mollusks are used as a food resource worldwide, and limpets are harvested commercially for both local consumption and export in several countries. This study describes a field experiment to assess the effects of simulated human exploitation of limpets Patella vulgata on their population ecology in terms of protandry (age-related sex change from male to female), growth, recruitment, migration, and density regulation. Limpet populations at two locations in southwest England were artificially exploited by systematic removal of the largest individuals for 18 months in plots assigned to three treatments at each site: no (control), low, and high exploitation. The shell size at sex change (L 50: the size at which there is a 50:50 sex ratio) decreased in response to the exploitation treatments, as did the mean shell size of sexual stages. Size-dependent sex change was indicated by L 50 occurring at smaller sizes in treatments than controls, suggesting an earlier switch to females. Mean shell size of P. vulgata neuters changed little under different levels of exploitation, while males and females both decreased markedly in size with exploitation. No differences were detected in the relative abundances of sexual stages, indicating some compensation for the removal of the bigger individuals via recruitment and sex change as no migratory patterns were detected between treatments. At the end of the experiment, 0-15 mm recruits were more abundant at one of the locations but no differences were detected between treatments. We conclude that sex change in P. vulgata can be induced at smaller sizes by reductions in density of the largest individuals reducing interage class competition. Knowledge of sex-change adaptation in exploited limpet populations should underpin strategies to counteract population decline and improve rocky shore conservation and resource management.

  9. The influence of simulated exploitation on Patella vulgata populations: protandric sex change is size-dependent.

    PubMed

    Borges, Carla D G; Hawkins, Stephen J; Crowe, Tasman P; Doncaster, C Patrick

    2016-01-01

    Grazing mollusks are used as a food resource worldwide, and limpets are harvested commercially for both local consumption and export in several countries. This study describes a field experiment to assess the effects of simulated human exploitation of limpets Patella vulgata on their population ecology in terms of protandry (age-related sex change from male to female), growth, recruitment, migration, and density regulation. Limpet populations at two locations in southwest England were artificially exploited by systematic removal of the largest individuals for 18 months in plots assigned to three treatments at each site: no (control), low, and high exploitation. The shell size at sex change (L 50: the size at which there is a 50:50 sex ratio) decreased in response to the exploitation treatments, as did the mean shell size of sexual stages. Size-dependent sex change was indicated by L 50 occurring at smaller sizes in treatments than controls, suggesting an earlier switch to females. Mean shell size of P. vulgata neuters changed little under different levels of exploitation, while males and females both decreased markedly in size with exploitation. No differences were detected in the relative abundances of sexual stages, indicating some compensation for the removal of the bigger individuals via recruitment and sex change as no migratory patterns were detected between treatments. At the end of the experiment, 0-15 mm recruits were more abundant at one of the locations but no differences were detected between treatments. We conclude that sex change in P. vulgata can be induced at smaller sizes by reductions in density of the largest individuals reducing interage class competition. Knowledge of sex-change adaptation in exploited limpet populations should underpin strategies to counteract population decline and improve rocky shore conservation and resource management. PMID:26843935

  10. Diminishing Returns of Population Size in the Rate of RNA Virus Adaptation

    PubMed Central

    Miralles, Rosario; Moya, Andrés; Elena, Santiago F.

    2000-01-01

    Whenever an asexual viral population evolves by adapting to new environmental conditions, beneficial mutations, the ultimate cause of adaptation, are randomly produced and then fixed in the population. The larger the population size and the higher the mutation rate, the more beneficial mutations can be produced per unit time. With the usually high mutation rate of RNA viruses and in a large enough population, several beneficial mutations could arise at the same time but in different genetic backgrounds, and if the virus is asexual, they will never be brought together through recombination. Thus, the best of these genotypes must outcompete each other on their way to fixation. This competition among beneficial mutations has the effect of slowing the overall rate of adaptation. This phenomenon is known as clonal interference. Clonal interference predicts a speed limit for adaptation as the population size increases. In the present report, by varying the size of evolving vesicular stomatitis virus populations, we found evidence clearly demonstrating this speed limit and thus indicating that clonal interference might be an important factor modulating the rate of adaptation to an in vitro cell system. Several evolutionary and epidemiological implications of the clonal interference model applied to RNA viruses are discussed. PMID:10729131

  11. Survival and population size estimation in raptor studies: A comparison of two methods

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gould, William R.; Fuller, Mark R.

    1995-01-01

    ABSTRACT.--The Jolly-Seber model is a capture-recapture model that can provide less-biased survival and population size estimates than those produced from simple counting procedures. Parameter estimation by simple counts and Jolly-Seber methods are based on certain assumptions that directly determine the validity of estimates. Evuluation of assumptions for parameter estimation is a focus of this paper and used as a basis for determining which methods are more likely to produce better estimates. An example of population size and survival estimation for a peregrine falcon(Falco peregrinus) population in western Greenland is used to compare the two methods.Based on results from the Greenland peregrine population, and an assessment of the underlying assumptions of simple counts and the Jolly-Seber model,we suggest that Jolly-Seber estimation of survival and population size is less biased than simple counts in studies with marked birds. We recommend the use of a Jolly-Seber analysis of data when capture-recapture techniques are employed in raptor population studies.

  12. The Population Size of the Lesser Bandicoot (Bandicota bengalensis) in Three Markets in Penang, Malaysia.

    PubMed

    Khairuddin, Nurul Liyana; Raghazli, Razlina; Sah, Shahrul Anuar Mohd; Shafie, Nur Juliani; Azman, Nur Munira

    2011-12-01

    A study of the population size of Bandicota bengalensis rats in three markets in Penang was conducted from April 2004 through May 2005. Taman Tun Sardon Market (TTS), Batu Lanchang Market (BTLG) and Bayan Lepas Market (BYNLP) were surveyed. Six sampling sessions were conducted in each market for four consecutive nights per session. The total captures of B. bengalensis in TTS, BTLG and BYNLP were 92%, 73% and 89% respectively. The total population of B. bengalensis in TTS was estimated as 265.4 (with a 95% confidence interval of 180.9-424.2). The total population at BTLG was estimated as 69.9 (with a 95% confidence interval of 35.5-148.9). At BYNLP, the total population was estimated as 134.7 (with a 95% confidence interval of 77.8-278.4). In general, adult male rats were captured most frequently at each site (55.19%), followed by adult females (31.69%), juvenile males (9.84%) and juvenile females (3.27%). The results showed that the number of rats captured at each site differed significantly according to sex ratio and maturity (χ(2) = 121.45, df = 3, p<0.01). Our results suggest that the population sizes found by the study may not represent the actual population size in each market owing to the low numbers of rats recaptured. This finding might have resulted from the variety of foods available in the markets.

  13. Asian elephants in China: estimating population size and evaluating habitat suitability.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Li; Dong, Lu; Lin, Liu; Feng, Limin; Yan, Fan; Wang, Lanxin; Guo, Xianming; Luo, Aidong

    2015-01-01

    We monitored the last remaining Asian elephant populations in China over the past decade. Using DNA tools and repeat genotyping, we estimated the population sizes from 654 dung samples collected from various areas. Combined with morphological individual identifications from over 6,300 elephant photographs taken in the wild, we estimated that the total Asian elephant population size in China is between 221 and 245. Population genetic structure and diversity were examined using a 556-bp fragment of mitochondrial DNA, and 24 unique haplotypes were detected from DNA analysis of 178 individuals. A phylogenetic analysis revealed two highly divergent clades of Asian elephants, α and β, present in Chinese populations. Four populations (Mengla, Shangyong, Mengyang, and Pu'Er) carried mtDNA from the α clade, and only one population (Nangunhe) carried mtDNA belonging to the β clade. Moreover, high genetic divergence was observed between the Nangunhe population and the other four populations; however, genetic diversity among the five populations was low, possibly due to limited gene flow because of habitat fragmentation. The expansion of rubber plantations, crop cultivation, and villages along rivers and roads had caused extensive degradation of natural forest in these areas. This had resulted in the loss and fragmentation of elephant habitats and had formed artificial barriers that inhibited elephant migration. Using Geographic Information System, Global Positioning System, and Remote Sensing technology, we found that the area occupied by rubber plantations, tea farms, and urban settlements had dramatically increased over the past 40 years, resulting in the loss and fragmentation of elephant habitats and forming artificial barriers that inhibit elephant migration. The restoration of ecological corridors to facilitate gene exchange among isolated elephant populations and the establishment of cross-boundary protected areas between China and Laos to secure their natural

  14. Asian Elephants in China: Estimating Population Size and Evaluating Habitat Suitability

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Li; Dong, Lu; Lin, Liu; Feng, Limin; Yan, Fan; Wang, Lanxin; Guo, Xianming; Luo, Aidong

    2015-01-01

    We monitored the last remaining Asian elephant populations in China over the past decade. Using DNA tools and repeat genotyping, we estimated the population sizes from 654 dung samples collected from various areas. Combined with morphological individual identifications from over 6,300 elephant photographs taken in the wild, we estimated that the total Asian elephant population size in China is between 221 and 245. Population genetic structure and diversity were examined using a 556-bp fragment of mitochondrial DNA, and 24 unique haplotypes were detected from DNA analysis of 178 individuals. A phylogenetic analysis revealed two highly divergent clades of Asian elephants, α and β, present in Chinese populations. Four populations (Mengla, Shangyong, Mengyang, and Pu’Er) carried mtDNA from the α clade, and only one population (Nangunhe) carried mtDNA belonging to the β clade. Moreover, high genetic divergence was observed between the Nangunhe population and the other four populations; however, genetic diversity among the five populations was low, possibly due to limited gene flow because of habitat fragmentation. The expansion of rubber plantations, crop cultivation, and villages along rivers and roads had caused extensive degradation of natural forest in these areas. This had resulted in the loss and fragmentation of elephant habitats and had formed artificial barriers that inhibited elephant migration. Using Geographic Information System, Global Positioning System, and Remote Sensing technology, we found that the area occupied by rubber plantations, tea farms, and urban settlements had dramatically increased over the past 40 years, resulting in the loss and fragmentation of elephant habitats and forming artificial barriers that inhibit elephant migration. The restoration of ecological corridors to facilitate gene exchange among isolated elephant populations and the establishment of cross-boundary protected areas between China and Laos to secure their natural

  15. Conspecific plant-soil feedback scales with population size in Lobelia siphilitica (Lobeliaceae).

    PubMed

    Hovatter, Stephanie; Blackwood, Christopher B; Case, Andrea L

    2013-12-01

    Plant-soil interactions directly affect plant success in terms of establishment, survival, growth and reproduction. Negative plant-soil feedback on such traits may therefore reduce the density and abundance of plants of a given species at a given site. Furthermore, if conspecific feedback varies among population sites, it could help explain geographic variation in plant population size. We tested for among-site variation in conspecific plant-soil feedback in a greenhouse experiment using seeds and soils from 8 natural populations of Lobelia siphilitica hosting 30-330 plants. The first cohort of seeds was grown on soil collected from each native site, while the second cohort was grown on the soil conditioned by the first. Our goal was to distinguish site-specific effects mediated by biotic and/or abiotic soil properties from those inherent in seed sources. Cohort 1 plants grown from seeds produced in small populations performed better in terms of germination, growth, and survival compared to plants produced in large populations. Plant performance decreased substantially between cohorts, indicating strong negative feedback. Most importantly, the strength of negative feedback scaled linearly (i.e., was less negative) with increasing size of the native plant population, particularly for germination and survival, and was better explained by soil- rather than seed-source effects. Even with a small number of sites, our results suggest that the potential for negative plant-soil feedback varies among populations of L. siphilitica, and that small populations were more susceptible to negative feedback. Conspecific plant-soil feedback may contribute to plant population size variation within a species' native range.

  16. Interactions between size-structured predator and prey populations: Experimental test and model comparison

    SciTech Connect

    Rice, J.A.; Crowder, L.B. ); Rose, K.A. )

    1993-05-01

    Because predation mortality is often size-dependent, the survival and size structure of prey populations may vary substantially depending on the size structure of the predator assemblage. We tested this hypothesis in a replicated pond experiment in which a bimodal size distribution of young-of-year spot Leiostomus xanthurus was exposed to two sizes of southern flounder Paralichthys lethostigma, each predator size-group present alone or together, at densities providing equal predation pressure. After 3 weeks, we examined cohort survival and size distributions of remaining spot. In the non-predator controls, spot size-frequency distributions were essentially unchanged, and survival of the large- and small-spot cohorts was similar. However, the size distribution of survivors, and the relative survival of large- and small-spot cohorts, differed markedly with the size structure of the predator assemblage. In the presence of small southern flounders, the large-spot cohort survived 4 times better than the small-spot cohort. In the large-flounder-only treatment, small spot survived 2.4 times better than large spot. When both large and small southern flounders were present, large spot had a net advantage, exceeding small spot survival by 2.4 times. We developed an individual-based model of the flounder-spot size-dependent predation interaction based on data from independent laboratory observations on size-based prey profit-ability, and used it to simulate the results of our experimental treatments. Model predictions of spot survival and size distributions agreed well with the pond experimental results when encounter rates were assumed to scale with spot size and density and with southern flounder density. 37 refs., 5 figs., 2 tabs.

  17. Sequence diversity under the multispecies coalescent with Yule process and constant population size.

    PubMed

    Heled, Joseph

    2012-03-01

    The study of sequence diversity under phylogenetic models is now classic. Theoretical studies of diversity under the Kingman coalescent appeared shortly after the introduction of the coalescent. In this paper we revisit this topic under the multispecies coalescent, an extension of the single population model to multiple populations. We derive exact formulas for the sequence dissimilarity of two sequences drawn at random under a basic multispecies setup. The multispecies model uses three parameters--the species tree birth rate under the pure birth process (Yule), the species effective population size and the mutation rate. We also discuss the effects of relaxing some of the model assumptions.

  18. Quantifying the Variation in the Effective Population Size Within a Genome

    PubMed Central

    Gossmann, Toni I.; Woolfit, Megan; Eyre-Walker, Adam

    2011-01-01

    The effective population size (Ne) is one of the most fundamental parameters in population genetics. It is thought to vary across the genome as a consequence of differences in the rate of recombination and the density of selected sites due to the processes of genetic hitchhiking and background selection. Although it is known that there is intragenomic variation in the effective population size in some species, it is not known whether this is widespread or how much variation in the effective population size there is. Here, we test whether the effective population size varies across the genome, between protein-coding genes, in 10 eukaryotic species by considering whether there is significant variation in neutral diversity, taking into account differences in the mutation rate between loci by using the divergence between species. In most species we find significant evidence of variation. We investigate whether the variation in Ne is correlated to recombination rate and the density of selected sites in four species, for which these data are available. We find that Ne is positively correlated to recombination rate in one species, Drosophila melanogaster, and negatively correlated to a measure of the density of selected sites in two others, humans and Arabidopsis thaliana. However, much of the variation remains unexplained. We use a hierarchical Bayesian analysis to quantify the amount of variation in the effective population size and show that it is quite modest in all species—most genes have an Ne that is within a few fold of all other genes. Nonetheless we show that this modest variation in Ne is sufficient to cause significant differences in the efficiency of natural selection across the genome, by demonstrating that the ratio of the number of nonsynonymous to synonymous polymorphisms is significantly correlated to synonymous diversity and estimates of Ne, even taking into account the obvious nonindependence between these measures. PMID:21954163

  19. Methods used to estimate the size of the owned cat and dog population: a systematic review

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background There are a number of different methods that can be used when estimating the size of the owned cat and dog population in a region, leading to varying population estimates. The aim of this study was to conduct a systematic review to evaluate the methods that have been used for estimating the sizes of owned cat and dog populations and to assess the biases associated with those methods. A comprehensive, systematic search of seven electronic bibliographic databases and the Google search engine was carried out using a range of different search terms for cats, dogs and population. The inclusion criteria were that the studies had involved owned or pet domestic dogs and/or cats, provided an estimate of the size of the owned dog or cat population, collected raw data on dog and cat ownership, and analysed primary data. Data relating to study methodology were extracted and assessed for biases. Results Seven papers were included in the final analysis. Collection methods used to select participants in the included studies were: mailed surveys using a commercial list of contacts, door to door surveys, random digit dialled telephone surveys, and randomised telephone surveys using a commercial list of numbers. Analytical and statistical methods used to estimate the pet population size were: mean number of dogs/cats per household multiplied by the number of households in an area, human density multiplied by number of dogs per human, and calculations using predictors of pet ownership. Conclusion The main biases of the studies included selection bias, non-response bias, measurement bias and biases associated with length of sampling time. Careful design and planning of studies is a necessity before executing a study to estimate pet populations. PMID:23777563

  20. Teaching Absolute Value Meaningfully

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wade, Angela

    2012-01-01

    What is the meaning of absolute value? And why do teachers teach students how to solve absolute value equations? Absolute value is a concept introduced in first-year algebra and then reinforced in later courses. Various authors have suggested instructional methods for teaching absolute value to high school students (Wei 2005; Stallings-Roberts…

  1. Population structure and effective/census population size ratio in threatened three-spined stickleback populations from an isolated river basin in northwest Spain.

    PubMed

    Pérez-Figueroa, A; Fernández, C; Amaro, R; Hermida, M; San Miguel, E

    2015-08-01

    Variability at 20 microsatellite loci was examined to assess the population genetic structure, gene flow, and effective population size (N(e)) in three populations of three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) from the upper basin of the Miño River in Galicia, NW Spain, where this species is threatened. The three populations showed similar levels of genetic diversity. There is a significant genetic differentiation between the three populations, but also significant gene flow. N(e) estimates based on linkage disequilibrium yielded values of 355 for the Miño River population and 241 and 311 for the Rato and Guisande Rivers, respectively, although we expect that these are overestimates. N(e) estimates based on temporal methods, considering gene flow or not, for the tributaries yielded values of 30-56 and 47-56 for the Rato and Guisande Rivers, respectively. Estimated census size (N(c)) for the Rato River was 880 individuals. This yielded a N(e)/N(c) estimate of 3-6 % for temporal estimation of N(e), which is within the empirical range observed in freshwater fishes. We suggest that the three populations analyzed have a sufficient level of genetic diversity with some genetic structure. Additionally, the absence of physical barriers suggests that conservation efforts and monitoring should focus in the whole basin as a unit.

  2. METER-SIZED MOONLET POPULATION IN SATURN'S C RING AND CASSINI DIVISION

    SciTech Connect

    Baillie, Kevin; Colwell, Joshua E.; Esposito, Larry W.; Lewis, Mark C.

    2013-06-01

    Stellar occultations observed by the Cassini Ultraviolet Imaging Spectrograph reveal the presence of transparent holes a few meters to a few tens of meters in radial extent in otherwise optically thick regions of the C ring and the Cassini Division. We attribute the holes to gravitational disturbances generated by a population of {approx}10 m boulders in the rings that is intermediate in size between the background ring particle size distribution and the previously observed {approx}100 m propeller moonlets in the A ring. The size distribution of these boulders is described by a shallower power-law than the one that describes the ring particle size distribution. The number and size distribution of these boulders could be explained by limited accretion processes deep within Saturn's Roche zone.

  3. Short-Term Genetic Changes: Evaluating Effective Population Size Estimates in a Comprehensively Described Brown Trout (Salmo trutta) Population

    PubMed Central

    Serbezov, Dimitar; Jorde, Per Erik; Bernatchez, Louis; Olsen, Esben Moland; Vøllestad, L. Asbjørn

    2012-01-01

    The effective population size (Ne) is notoriously difficult to accurately estimate in wild populations as it is influenced by a number of parameters that are difficult to delineate in natural systems. The different methods that are used to estimate Ne are affected variously by different processes at the population level, such as the life-history characteristics of the organism, gene flow, and population substructure, as well as by the frequency patterns of genetic markers used and the sampling design. Here, we compare Ne estimates obtained by different genetic methods and from demographic data and elucidate how the estimates are affected by various factors in an exhaustively sampled and comprehensively described natural brown trout (Salmo trutta) system. In general, the methods yielded rather congruent estimates, and we ascribe that to the adequate genotyping and exhaustive sampling. Effects of violating the assumptions of the different methods were nevertheless apparent. In accordance with theoretical studies, skewed allele frequencies would underestimate temporal allele frequency changes and thereby upwardly bias Ne if not accounted for. Overlapping generations and iteroparity would also upwardly bias Ne when applied to temporal samples taken over short time spans. Gene flow from a genetically not very dissimilar source population decreases temporal allele frequency changes and thereby acts to increase estimates of Ne. Our study reiterates the importance of adequate sampling, quantification of life-history parameters and gene flow, and incorporating these data into the Ne estimation. PMID:22466040

  4. Reduction of Salmonella Enteritidis Population Sizes on Almond Kernels with Infrared Heat

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Catalytic infrared (IR) heating was investigated to determine its effect on Salmonella enterica serovar Enteritidis population sizes on raw almond kernels. Using a double-sided catalytic infrared heating system, a radiation intensity of 5458 W/m2 caused a fast temperature increase at the kernel surf...

  5. The influence of persistent individual differences and age at maturity on effective population size

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Aline Magdalena; Engen, Steinar; Sæther, Bernt-Erik

    2011-01-01

    Ratios of effective populations size, Ne, to census population size, N, are used as a measure of genetic drift in populations. Several life-history parameters have been shown to affect these ratios, including mating system and age at sexual maturation. Using a stochastic matrix model, we examine how different levels of persistent individual differences in mating success among males may affect Ne/N, and how this relates to generation time. Individual differences of this type are shown to cause a lower Ne/N ratio than would be expected when mating is independent among seasons. Examining the way in which age at maturity affects Ne/N, we find that both the direction and magnitude of the effect depends on the survival rate of juveniles in the population. In particular, when maturation is delayed, lowered juvenile survival causes higher levels of genetic drift. In addition, predicted shifts in Ne/N with changing age at maturity are shown to be dependent on which of the commonly used definitions of census population size, N, is employed. Our results demonstrate that patterns of mating success, as well as juvenile survival probabilities, have substantial effects on rates of genetic drift. PMID:21436183

  6. Distribution of a Population of Rhizobium leguminosarum bv. trifolii among Different Size Classes of Soil Aggregates.

    PubMed

    Mendes, I C; Bottomley, P J

    1998-03-01

    A combination of the plant infection-soil dilution technique (most-probable-number [MPN] technique) and immunofluorescence direct count (IFDC) microscopy was used to examine the effects of three winter cover crop treatments on the distribution of a soil population of Rhizobium leguminosarum bv. trifolii across different size classes of soil aggregates (<0.25, 0.25 to 0.5, 0.5 to 1.0, 1.0 to 2.0, and 2.0 to 5.0 mm). The aggregates were prepared from a Willamette silt loam soil immediately after harvest of broccoli (September 1995) and before planting and after harvest of sweet corn (June and September 1996, respectively). The summer crops were grown in soil that had been either fallowed or planted with a cover crop of red clover (legume) or triticale (cereal) from September to April. The Rhizobium soil population was heterogeneously distributed across the different size classes of soil aggregates, and the distribution was influenced by cover crop treatment and sampling time. On both September samplings, the smallest size class of aggregates (<0.25 mm) recovered from the red clover plots carried between 30 and 70% of the total nodulating R. leguminosarum population, as estimated by the MPN procedure, while the same aggregate size class from the June sampling carried only approximately 6% of the population. In June, IDFC microscopy revealed that the 1.0- to 2.0-mm size class of aggregates from the red clover treatment carried a significantly greater population density of the successful nodule-occupying serotype, AR18, than did the aggregate size classes of <0.5 mm, and 2 to 5 mm. In September, however, the population profile of AR18 had shifted such that the density was significantly greater in the 0.25- to 0.5-mm size class than in aggregates of <0.25 mm and >1.0 mm. The populations of two other Rhizobium serotypes (AR6 and AS36) followed the same trends of distribution in the June and September samplings. These data indicate the existence of structural microsites

  7. Multiple aspects of plasticity in clutch size vary among populations of a globally distributed songbird.

    PubMed

    Westneat, David F; Bókony, Veronika; Burke, Terry; Chastel, Olivier; Jensen, Henrik; Kvalnes, Thomas; Lendvai, Ádám Z; Liker, András; Mock, Douglas; Schroeder, Julia; Schwagmeyer, P L; Sorci, Gabriele; Stewart, Ian R K

    2014-07-01

    Plasticity in life-history characteristics can influence many ecological and evolutionary phenomena, including how invading organisms cope with novel conditions in new locations or how environmental change affects organisms in native locations. Variation in reaction norm attributes is a critical element to understanding plasticity in life history, yet we know relatively little about the ways in which reaction norms vary within and among populations. We amassed data on clutch size from marked females in eight populations of house sparrows (Passer domesticus) from North America and Europe. We exploited repeated measures of clutch size to assess both the extent of within-individual phenotypic plasticity and among-individual variation and to test alternative hypotheses about the underlying causes of reaction norm shape, particularly the decline in clutch size with date. Across all populations, females of this multibrooded species altered their clutch size with respect to date, attempt order, and the interaction of date and order, producing a reaction norm in multidimensional environmental space. The reaction norm fits that predicted by a model in which optimal clutch size is driven by a decline with date hatched in the ability of offspring to recruit. Our results do not fit those predicted for other proposed causes of a seasonal decline in clutch size. We also found significant differences between populations in response to date and the date by attempt order interaction. We tested the prediction that the relationship with date should be increasingly negative as breeding season becomes shorter but found steeper declines in clutch size with date in populations with longer seasons, contrary to the prediction. Populations also differed in the level of among-individual variation in reaction norm intercept, but we found no evidence of among-individual variation in reaction norm slope. We show that complex reaction norms in life-history characters exhibit within- and among-population

  8. Fourth-Order Method for Numerical Integration of Age- and Size-Structured Population Models

    SciTech Connect

    Iannelli, M; Kostova, T; Milner, F A

    2008-01-08

    In many applications of age- and size-structured population models, there is an interest in obtaining good approximations of total population numbers rather than of their densities. Therefore, it is reasonable in such cases to solve numerically not the PDE model equations themselves, but rather their integral equivalents. For this purpose quadrature formulae are used in place of the integrals. Because quadratures can be designed with any order of accuracy, one can obtain numerical approximations of the solutions with very fast convergence. In this article, we present a general framework and a specific example of a fourth-order method based on composite Newton-Cotes quadratures for a size-structured population model.

  9. Prey size and scramble vs. contest competition in a social spider: implications for population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Sharpe, Ruth V; Avilés, Leticia

    2016-09-01

    There are many benefits of group living, but also substantial costs, one of which is competition for resources. How scarce food resources are distributed among different members of a population or social group - whether via scramble or contest competition - can influence not only the variance in individual fitness, but also the stability and therefore survival of the group or population. Attributes of the food resources themselves, such as their size, may influence the type of intraspecific competition that occurs and therefore the intrinsic stability of a group or population. By experimentally manipulating the size of prey fed to artificial colonies of the social spider Anelosimus eximius, we investigated whether prey size could alter the degree of scramble vs. contest competition that takes place and, thus, potentially influence colony population dynamics. We found that large prey were shared more evenly than small prey and that individuals in poor condition were more likely to feed when prey were large than when prey were small. Additionally, we show that individuals participating in prey capture are also more likely to feed on the captured prey. We developed a simple mathematical model to explore the prey sizes that would be energetically worth defending, i.e. prey that are 'economically defendable'. The model shows that neither very small prey, nor prey above a certain size is worth monopolizing, with only intermediate size prey being 'economically defendable'. We therefore suggest the small and large prey in our experiment corresponds to our model's intermediate and large prey categories, respectively. As the size of prey captured by social spider colonies increases with colony size, our findings suggest that scramble competition may predominate in large colonies. Scramble competition, combined with the fact that prey biomass per capita declines as colonies grow beyond a certain size, would then explain why extremely large colonies of this social spider may

  10. Prey size and scramble vs. contest competition in a social spider: implications for population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Sharpe, Ruth V; Avilés, Leticia

    2016-09-01

    There are many benefits of group living, but also substantial costs, one of which is competition for resources. How scarce food resources are distributed among different members of a population or social group - whether via scramble or contest competition - can influence not only the variance in individual fitness, but also the stability and therefore survival of the group or population. Attributes of the food resources themselves, such as their size, may influence the type of intraspecific competition that occurs and therefore the intrinsic stability of a group or population. By experimentally manipulating the size of prey fed to artificial colonies of the social spider Anelosimus eximius, we investigated whether prey size could alter the degree of scramble vs. contest competition that takes place and, thus, potentially influence colony population dynamics. We found that large prey were shared more evenly than small prey and that individuals in poor condition were more likely to feed when prey were large than when prey were small. Additionally, we show that individuals participating in prey capture are also more likely to feed on the captured prey. We developed a simple mathematical model to explore the prey sizes that would be energetically worth defending, i.e. prey that are 'economically defendable'. The model shows that neither very small prey, nor prey above a certain size is worth monopolizing, with only intermediate size prey being 'economically defendable'. We therefore suggest the small and large prey in our experiment corresponds to our model's intermediate and large prey categories, respectively. As the size of prey captured by social spider colonies increases with colony size, our findings suggest that scramble competition may predominate in large colonies. Scramble competition, combined with the fact that prey biomass per capita declines as colonies grow beyond a certain size, would then explain why extremely large colonies of this social spider may

  11. Population size and trend of Yellow-billed Loons in northern Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Earnst, Susan L.; Stehn, R.A.; Platte, Robert; Larned, W.W.; Mallek, E.J.

    2005-01-01

    The Yellow-billed Loon (Gavia adamsii) is of conservation concern due to its restricted range, small population size, specific habitat requirements, and perceived threats to its breeding and wintering habitat. Within the U.S., this species breeds almost entirely within the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska, nearly all of which is open, or proposed to be opened, for oil development. Rigorous estimates of Yellow-billed Loon population size and trend are lacking but essential for informed conservation. We used two annual aerial waterfowl surveys, conducted 1986a??2003 and 1992a??2003, to estimate population size and trend on northern Alaskan breeding grounds. In estimating population trend, we used mixed-effects regression models to reduce bias and sampling error associated with improvement in observer skill and annual effects of spring phenology. The estimated population trend on Alaskan breeding grounds since 1986 was near 0 with an estimated annual change of a??0.9% (95% CI of a??3.6% to +1.8%). The estimated population size, averaged over the past 12 years and adjusted by a correction factor based on an intensive, lake-circling, aerial survey method, was 2221 individuals (95% CI of 1206a??3235) in early June and 3369 individuals (95% CI of 1910a??4828) in late June. Based on estimates from other studies of the proportion of loons nesting in a given year, it is likely that <1000 nesting pairs inhabit northern Alaska in most years. The highest concentration of Yellow-billed Loons occurred between the Meade and Ikpikpuk Rivers; and across all of northern Alaska, 53% of recorded sightings occurred within 12% of the area.

  12. Population Size and Decadal Trends of Three Penguin Species Nesting at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands

    PubMed Central

    Dunn, Michael J.; Jackson, Jennifer A.; Adlard, Stacey; Lynnes, Amanda S.; Briggs, Dirk R.; Fox, Derren; Waluda, Claire M.

    2016-01-01

    We report long-term changes in population size of three species of sympatrically breeding pygoscelid penguins: Adélie (Pygoscelis adeliae), chinstrap (Pygoscelis antarctica) and gentoo (Pygoscelis papua ellsworthii) over a 38 year period at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands, based on annual counts from selected colonies and decadal all-island systematic counts of occupied nests. Comparing total numbers of breeding pairs over the whole island from 1978/79 to 2015/16 revealed varying fortunes: gentoo penguin pairs increased by 255%, (3.5% per annum), chinstrap penguins declined by 68% (-3.6% per annum) and Adélie penguins declined by 42% (-1.5% per annum). The chinstrap population has declined steadily over the last four decades. In contrast, Adélie and gentoo penguins have experienced phases of population increase and decline. Annual surveys of selected chinstrap and Adélie colonies produced similar trends from those revealed by island-wide surveys, allowing total island population trends to be inferred relatively well. However, while the annual colony counts of chinstrap and Adélie penguins showed a trend consistent in direction with the results from all-island surveys, the magnitude of estimated population change was markedly different between colony wide and all island counts. Annual population patterns suggest that pair numbers in the study areas partly reflect immigration and emigration of nesting birds between different parts of the island. Breeding success for all three species remained broadly stable over time in the annually monitored colonies. Breeding success rates in gentoo and chinstrap penguins were strongly correlated, despite the differing trends in population size. This study shows the importance of effective, standardised monitoring to accurately determine long-term population trajectories. Our results indicate significant declines in the Adélie and chinstrap penguin populations at Signy Island over the last five decades, and a gradual

  13. Use of the superpopulation approach to estimate breeding population size: An example in asynchronously breeding birds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Williams, K.A.; Frederick, P.C.; Nichols, J.D.

    2011-01-01

    Many populations of animals are fluid in both space and time, making estimation of numbers difficult. Much attention has been devoted to estimation of bias in detection of animals that are present at the time of survey. However, an equally important problem is estimation of population size when all animals are not present on all survey occasions. Here, we showcase use of the superpopulation approach to capture-recapture modeling for estimating populations where group membership is asynchronous, and where considerable overlap in group membership among sampling occasions may occur. We estimate total population size of long-legged wading bird (Great Egret and White Ibis) breeding colonies from aerial observations of individually identifiable nests at various times in the nesting season. Initiation and termination of nests were analogous to entry and departure from a population. Estimates using the superpopulation approach were 47-382% larger than peak aerial counts of the same colonies. Our results indicate that the use of the superpopulation approach to model nesting asynchrony provides a considerably less biased and more efficient estimate of nesting activity than traditional methods. We suggest that this approach may also be used to derive population estimates in a variety of situations where group membership is fluid. ?? 2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

  14. Dispersal, niche breadth and population extinction: colonization ratios predict range size in North American dragonflies.

    PubMed

    McCauley, Shannon J; Davis, Christopher J; Werner, Earl E; Robeson, Michael S

    2014-07-01

    Species' range sizes are shaped by fundamental differences in species' ecological and evolutionary characteristics, and understanding the mechanisms determining range size can shed light on the factors responsible for generating and structuring biological diversity. Moreover, because geographic range size is associated with a species' risk of extinction and their ability to respond to global changes in climate and land use, understanding these mechanisms has important conservation implications. Despite the hypotheses that dispersal behaviour is a strong determinant of species range areas, few data are available to directly compare the relationship between dispersal behaviour and range size. Here, we overcome this limitation by combining data from a multispecies dispersal experiment with additional species-level trait data that are commonly hypothesized to affect range size (e.g. niche breadth, local abundance and body size.). This enables us to examine the relationship between these species-level traits and range size across North America for fifteen dragonfly species. Ten models based on a priori predictions about the relationship between species traits and range size were evaluated and two models were identified as good predictors of species range size. These models indicated that only two species' level traits, dispersal behaviour and niche breadth were strongly related to range size. The evidence from these two models indicated that dragonfly species that disperse more often and further had larger North American ranges. Extinction and colonization dynamics are expected to be a key linkage between dispersal behaviour and range size in dragonflies. To evaluate how extinction and colonization dynamics among dragonflies were related to range size we used an independent data set of extinction and colonization rates for eleven dragonfly species and assessed the relationship between these populations rates and North American range areas for these species. We found a

  15. Evaluating methods for estimating local effective population size with and without migration.

    PubMed

    Gilbert, Kimberly J; Whitlock, Michael C

    2015-08-01

    Effective population size is a fundamental parameter in population genetics, evolutionary biology, and conservation biology, yet its estimation can be fraught with difficulties. Several methods to estimate Ne from genetic data have been developed that take advantage of various approaches for inferring Ne . The ability of these methods to accurately estimate Ne , however, has not been comprehensively examined. In this study, we employ seven of the most cited methods for estimating Ne from genetic data (Colony2, CoNe, Estim, MLNe, ONeSAMP, TMVP, and NeEstimator including LDNe) across simulated datasets with populations experiencing migration or no migration. The simulated population demographies are an isolated population with no immigration, an island model metapopulation with a sink population receiving immigrants, and an isolation by distance stepping stone model of populations. We find considerable variance in performance of these methods, both within and across demographic scenarios, with some methods performing very poorly. The most accurate estimates of Ne can be obtained by using LDNe, MLNe, or TMVP; however each of these approaches is outperformed by another in a differing demographic scenario. Knowledge of the approximate demography of population as well as the availability of temporal data largely improves Ne estimates.

  16. Evaluating methods for estimating local effective population size with and without migration.

    PubMed

    Gilbert, Kimberly J; Whitlock, Michael C

    2015-08-01

    Effective population size is a fundamental parameter in population genetics, evolutionary biology, and conservation biology, yet its estimation can be fraught with difficulties. Several methods to estimate Ne from genetic data have been developed that take advantage of various approaches for inferring Ne . The ability of these methods to accurately estimate Ne , however, has not been comprehensively examined. In this study, we employ seven of the most cited methods for estimating Ne from genetic data (Colony2, CoNe, Estim, MLNe, ONeSAMP, TMVP, and NeEstimator including LDNe) across simulated datasets with populations experiencing migration or no migration. The simulated population demographies are an isolated population with no immigration, an island model metapopulation with a sink population receiving immigrants, and an isolation by distance stepping stone model of populations. We find considerable variance in performance of these methods, both within and across demographic scenarios, with some methods performing very poorly. The most accurate estimates of Ne can be obtained by using LDNe, MLNe, or TMVP; however each of these approaches is outperformed by another in a differing demographic scenario. Knowledge of the approximate demography of population as well as the availability of temporal data largely improves Ne estimates. PMID:26118738

  17. Estimating the Size of the Female Sex Worker Population in Kenya to Inform HIV Prevention Programming

    PubMed Central

    Odek, Willis Omondi; Githuka, George N.; Avery, Lisa; Njoroge, Peter K.; Kasonde, Lombe; Gorgens, Marelize; Kimani, Joshua; Gelmon, Lawrence; Gakii, Gloria; Isac, Shajy; Faran, Emmanuel; Musyoki, Helgar; Maina, William; Blanchard, James F.; Moses, Stephen

    2014-01-01

    Background The high burden of HIV infections among female sex workers (FSW) in sub-Saharan Africa has been long recognised, but effective preventive interventions have largely not been taken to scale. We undertook a national geographical mapping exercise in 2011/2012 to assess the locations and population size of FSW in Kenya, to facilitate targeted HIV prevention services for this population. Methods and Findings We used a geographical mapping approach, consisting of interviews with secondary key informants to identify “hot” spots frequented by FSW, their operational dynamics and the estimated numbers of FSW in those spots. This was followed by validation of the estimates through interviews with FSW at each spot identified. The mapping covered Nairobi, the capital city of Kenya, and 50 other major urban centres. In total, 11,609 secondary key informant interviews were conducted to identify FSW spots. Further, a total of 6,360 FSW were interviewed for spot validation purposes. A total of 10,670 spots where FSW congregate were identified. The estimated FSW population in all the towns mapped was 103,298 (range 77,878 to 128, 717). Size estimates in the towns mapped were extended to smaller towns that were not mapped, using a statistical model. The national urban FSW population estimate was 138,420 (range 107, 552 to 169, 288), covering all towns of over 5,000 population. We estimated that approximately 5% of the urban female population of reproductive age in Kenya could be sex workers, which is consistent with previous estimates from other sub-Saharan African countries. Conclusions This study provides the first national level data on the size of the FSW population in Kenya. These data can be used to enhance HIV prevention programme planning and implementation for FSW, to form the basis for impact evaluations, and to improve programme coverage by directing efforts to locations with the greatest need. PMID:24595029

  18. Estimating effective population size from linkage disequilibrium between unlinked loci: theory and application to fruit fly outbreak populations.

    PubMed

    Sved, John A; Cameron, Emilie C; Gilchrist, A Stuart

    2013-01-01

    There is a substantial literature on the use of linkage disequilibrium (LD) to estimate effective population size using unlinked loci. The Ne estimates are extremely sensitive to the sampling process, and there is currently no theory to cope with the possible biases. We derive formulae for the analysis of idealised populations mating at random with multi-allelic (microsatellite) loci. The 'Burrows composite index' is introduced in a novel way with a 'composite haplotype table'. We show that in a sample of diploid size S, the mean value of x2 or r2 from the composite haplotype table is biased by a factor of 1-1/(2S-1)2, rather than the usual factor 1+1/(2S-1) for a conventional haplotype table. But analysis of population data using these formulae leads to Ne estimates that are unrealistically low. We provide theory and simulation to show that this bias towards low Ne estimates is due to null alleles, and introduce a randomised permutation correction to compensate for the bias. We also consider the effect of introducing a within-locus disequilibrium factor to r2, and find that this factor leads to a bias in the Ne estimate. However this bias can be overcome using the same randomised permutation correction, to yield an altered r2 with lower variance than the original r2, and one that is also insensitive to null alleles. The resulting formulae are used to provide Ne estimates on 40 samples of the Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera tryoni, from populations with widely divergent Ne expectations. Linkage relationships are known for most of the microsatellite loci in this species. We find that there is little difference in the estimated Ne values from using known unlinked loci as compared to using all loci, which is important for conservation studies where linkage relationships are unknown.

  19. Estimating Effective Population Size from Linkage Disequilibrium between Unlinked Loci: Theory and Application to Fruit Fly Outbreak Populations

    PubMed Central

    Sved, John A; Cameron, Emilie C.; Gilchrist, A. Stuart

    2013-01-01

    There is a substantial literature on the use of linkage disequilibrium (LD) to estimate effective population size using unlinked loci. The estimates are extremely sensitive to the sampling process, and there is currently no theory to cope with the possible biases. We derive formulae for the analysis of idealised populations mating at random with multi-allelic (microsatellite) loci. The ‘Burrows composite index’ is introduced in a novel way with a ‘composite haplotype table’. We show that in a sample of diploid size , the mean value of or from the composite haplotype table is biased by a factor of , rather than the usual factor for a conventional haplotype table. But analysis of population data using these formulae leads to estimates that are unrealistically low. We provide theory and simulation to show that this bias towards low estimates is due to null alleles, and introduce a randomised permutation correction to compensate for the bias. We also consider the effect of introducing a within-locus disequilibrium factor to , and find that this factor leads to a bias in the estimate. However this bias can be overcome using the same randomised permutation correction, to yield an altered with lower variance than the original , and one that is also insensitive to null alleles. The resulting formulae are used to provide estimates on 40 samples of the Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera tryoni, from populations with widely divergent expectations. Linkage relationships are known for most of the microsatellite loci in this species. We find that there is little difference in the estimated values from using known unlinked loci as compared to using all loci, which is important for conservation studies where linkage relationships are unknown. PMID:23894410

  20. How to control chaotic behaviour and population size with proportional feedback

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liz, Eduardo

    2010-01-01

    We study the control of chaos in one-dimensional discrete maps as they often occur in modelling population dynamics. For managing the population, we seek to suppress any possible chaotic behavior, leading the system to a stable equilibrium. In this Letter, we make a rigorous analysis of the proportional feedback method under certain conditions fulfilled by a wide family of maps. We show that it is possible to stabilize the chaotic dynamics towards a globally stable positive equilibrium, that can be chosen among a broad range of possible values. In particular, the size of the population can be enhanced by control in form of population reduction. This paradoxical phenomenon is known as the hydra effect, and it has important implications in the design of strategies in such areas as fishing, pest management, and conservation biology.

  1. The Design of a Mobile Portion Size Estimation Interface for a Low Literacy Population

    PubMed Central

    Chaudry, Beenish; Connelly, Kay; Siek, Katie A.; Welch, Janet L.

    2011-01-01

    Being aware of one’s portion sizes is a key component of maintaining a healthy diet, however, it is difficult for individuals especially low literacy populations to estimate their consumption. Nutritional monitoring applications can help but most of them are designed for people with high literacy and numeracy skills. In this paper, we designed and evaluated six portion size estimation interfaces through a Wizard of Oz based experiment using low-fidelity prototypes with ten varying literacy individuals. The interfaces were designed based on the cognitive strategies adults use for reporting portion sizes in diet recall studies. Participants made correct estimates with interfaces designed for liquid and amorphous foods, but had difficulties with those designed for solid foods. Based on these findings, we provide recommendations for designing accurate and low literacy-accessible portion size estimating mobile interfaces. PMID:22914603

  2. Signaling among neighboring plants and the development of size inequalities in plant populations

    SciTech Connect

    Ballare, C.L. |; Scopel, A.L. |; Jordan, E.T.; Vierstra, R.D.

    1994-10-11

    Transgenic tobacco plants that express an oat phytochrome gene (phyA) under control of the cauliflower mosaic virus (CaMV) 35S promoter and display altered photophysiology were used to test the role of light as a vehicle of information in dominance relationships between neighboring plants. Compared with the isogenic wild type, phyA-overexpressing plants showed dramatically reduced morphological responsivity to changes in the red/far red ratio of the incident light and to the proximity of neighboring plants in spacing experiments. In transgenic canopies an increase in stand density caused the small plants of the population to be rapidly suppressed by their neighbors. In wild-type canopies, plants responded to increased density with large morphological changes, and there appeared to be an inverse relationship between the magnitude of this morphological response and the ranking of the individual plant in the population size hierarchy. In these wild-type populations, size inequality increased only moderately with density within the time frame of the experiments. The results suggest that, in crowded stands, the ability of individual plants to acquire information about their light environment via phytochrome plays a central role in driving architectural changes that, at the population level, delay the development of size differences between neighbors.

  3. Climate change influenced female population sizes through time across the Indonesian archipelago.

    PubMed

    Guillot, Elsa G; Tumonggor, Meryanne K; Lansing, J Stephen; Sudoyo, Herawati; Cox, Murray P

    2013-01-01

    Lying at the crossroads of Asia and the Pacific world, the Indonesian archipelago hosts one of the world's richest accumulations of cultural, linguistic, and genetic variation. While the role of human migration into and around the archipelago is now known in some detail, other aspects of Indonesia's complex history are less understood. Here, we focus on population size changes from the first settlement of Indonesia nearly 50 kya up to the historic era. We reconstructed the past effective population sizes of Indonesian women using mitochondrial DNA sequences from 2,104 individuals in 55 village communities on four islands spanning the Indonesian archipelago (Bali, Flores, Sumba, and Timor). We found little evidence for large fluctuations in effective population size. Most communities grew slowly during the late Pleistocene, peaked 15-20 kya, and subsequently declined slowly into the Holocene. This unexpected pattern may reflect population declines caused by the flooding of lowland hunter/gatherer habitat during sea-level rises following the last glacial maximum. PMID:24297223

  4. Climate change influenced female population sizes through time across the Indonesian archipelago.

    PubMed

    Guillot, Elsa G; Tumonggor, Meryanne K; Lansing, J Stephen; Sudoyo, Herawati; Cox, Murray P

    2013-01-01

    Lying at the crossroads of Asia and the Pacific world, the Indonesian archipelago hosts one of the world's richest accumulations of cultural, linguistic, and genetic variation. While the role of human migration into and around the archipelago is now known in some detail, other aspects of Indonesia's complex history are less understood. Here, we focus on population size changes from the first settlement of Indonesia nearly 50 kya up to the historic era. We reconstructed the past effective population sizes of Indonesian women using mitochondrial DNA sequences from 2,104 individuals in 55 village communities on four islands spanning the Indonesian archipelago (Bali, Flores, Sumba, and Timor). We found little evidence for large fluctuations in effective population size. Most communities grew slowly during the late Pleistocene, peaked 15-20 kya, and subsequently declined slowly into the Holocene. This unexpected pattern may reflect population declines caused by the flooding of lowland hunter/gatherer habitat during sea-level rises following the last glacial maximum.

  5. Size distribution of retrovirally marked lineages matches prediction from population measurements of cell cycle behavior

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cai, Li; Hayes, Nancy L.; Takahashi, Takao; Caviness, Verne S Jr; Nowakowski, Richard S.

    2002-01-01

    Mechanisms that regulate neuron production in the developing mouse neocortex were examined by using a retroviral lineage marking method to determine the sizes of the lineages remaining in the proliferating population of the ventricular zone during the period of neuron production. The distribution of clade sizes obtained experimentally in four different injection-survival paradigms (E11-E13, E11-E14, E11-E15, and E12-E15) from a total of over 500 labeled lineages was compared with that obtained from three models in which the average behavior of the proliferating population [i.e., the proportion of cells remaining in the proliferative population (P) vs. that exiting the proliferative population (Q)] was quantitatively related to lineage size distribution. In model 1, different proportions of asymmetric, symmetric terminal, and symmetric nonterminal cell divisions coexisted during the entire developmental period. In model 2, the developmental period was divided into two epochs: During the first, asymmetric and symmetric nonterminal cell divisions occurred, but, during the second, asymmetric and symmetric terminal cell divisions occurred. In model 3, the shifts in P and Q are accounted for by changes in the proportions of the two types of symmetric cell divisions without the inclusion of any asymmetric cell divisions. The results obtained from the retroviral experiments were well accounted for by model 1 but not by model 2 or 3. These findings demonstrate that: 1) asymmetric and both types of symmetric cell divisions coexist during the entire period of neurogenesis in the mouse, 2) neuron production is regulated in the proliferative population by the independent decisions of the two daughter cells to reenter S phase, and 3) neurons are produced by both asymmetric and symmetric terminal cell divisions. In addition, the findings mean that cell death and/or tangential movements of cells in the proliferative population occur at only a low rate and that there are no

  6. The evolution of harm--effect of sexual conflicts and population size.

    PubMed

    Gay, Laurène; Hosken, David J; Eady, Paul; Vasudev, Ram; Tregenza, Tom

    2011-03-01

    Conflicts of interest between mates can promote the evolution of male traits that reduce female fitness and that drive coevolution between the sexes. The rate of adaptation depends on the intensity of selection and its efficiency, which depends on drift and genetic variability. This leads to the largely untested prediction that coevolutionary adaptations such as those driven by sexual conflict should evolve faster in large populations. We tested this using the bruchid beetle Callosobruchus maculatus, a species where harm inflicted by males is well documented. Although most experimental evolution studies remove sexual conflict, we reintroduced it in populations in which it had been experimentally removed. Both population size and standing genetic variability were manipulated in a factorial experimental design. After 90 generations of relaxed conflict (monogamy), the reintroduction of sexual conflicts for 30 generations favored males that harmed females and females that were more resistant to the genital damage inflicted by males. Males evolved to become more harmful when population size was large rather than when initial genetic variation was enriched. Our study shows that sexual selection can create conditions in which males can benefit from harming females and that selection may tend to be more intense and effective in larger populations.

  7. Resources, key traits and the size of fungal epidemics in Daphnia populations.

    PubMed

    Civitello, David J; Penczykowski, Rachel M; Smith, Aimee N; Shocket, Marta S; Duffy, Meghan A; Hall, Spencer R

    2015-07-01

    Parasites can profoundly affect host populations and ecological communities. Thus, it remains critical to identify mechanisms that drive variation in epidemics. Resource availability can drive epidemics via traits of hosts and parasites that govern disease spread. Here, we map resource-trait-epidemic connections to explain variation in fungal outbreaks (Metschnikowia bicuspidata) in a zooplankton host (Daphnia dentifera) among lakes. We predicted epidemics would grow larger in lakes with more phytoplankton via three energetic mechanisms. First, resources should stimulate Daphnia reproduction, potentially elevating host density. Secondly, resources should boost body size of hosts, enhancing exposure to environmentally distributed propagules through size-dependent feeding. Thirdly, resources should fuel parasite reproduction within hosts. To test these predictions, we sampled 12 natural epidemics and tracked edible algae, fungal infection prevalence, body size, fecundity and density of hosts, as well as within-host parasite loads. Epidemics grew larger in lakes with more algal resources. Structural equation modelling revealed that resource availability stimulated all three traits (host fecundity, host size and parasite load). However, only parasite load connected resources to epidemic size. Epidemics grew larger in more dense Daphnia populations, but host density was unrelated to host fecundity (thus breaking its link to resources). Thus, via energetic mechanisms, resource availability can stimulate key trait(s) governing epidemics in nature. A synthetic focus on resources and resource-trait links could yield powerful insights into epidemics. PMID:25733032

  8. Division synchrony and the dynamics of microbial populations: a size-specific model.

    PubMed

    Gage, T B; Williams, F M; Horton, J B

    1984-12-01

    A discrete, environmentally coupled, size-specific model of microbial population dynamics in continuous culture is presented. It is mathematically simpler than other models based on similar assumptions and lends itself to numerical and analytic solutions. It displays several phenomena which have been reported in the experimental literature but which are not well understood; specifically, a loose relationship between biomass and numbers (i.e., a time lag between mass growth and cell division) and a critical damping of biomass while numbers continue to oscillate. In addition, the model provides several new predictions: The stable biomass distribution is independent of the environmental factors considered in the model and uniformly distributes the biomass among the size classes. The rate of approach to stability and the frequency of waves through the size distributions are a function of the flow rate and the variance in rate of growth and size at division. The model should provide a useful basis for studying the effects of size specificity on the dynamics of microbial populations cultured in chemostats.

  9. Predator-driven brain size evolution in natural populations of Trinidadian killifish (Rivulus hartii).

    PubMed

    Walsh, Matthew R; Broyles, Whitnee; Beston, Shannon M; Munch, Stephan B

    2016-07-13

    Vertebrates exhibit extensive variation in relative brain size. It has long been assumed that this variation is the product of ecologically driven natural selection. Yet, despite more than 100 years of research, the ecological conditions that select for changes in brain size are unclear. Recent laboratory selection experiments showed that selection for larger brains is associated with increased survival in risky environments. Such results lead to the prediction that increased predation should favour increased brain size. Work on natural populations, however, foreshadows the opposite trajectory of evolution; increased predation favours increased boldness, slower learning, and may thereby select for a smaller brain. We tested the influence of predator-induced mortality on brain size evolution by quantifying brain size variation in a Trinidadian killifish, Rivulus hartii, from communities that differ in predation intensity. We observed strong genetic differences in male (but not female) brain size between fish communities; second generation laboratory-reared males from sites with predators exhibited smaller brains than Rivulus from sites in which they are the only fish present. Such trends oppose the results of recent laboratory selection experiments and are not explained by trade-offs with other components of fitness. Our results suggest that increased male brain size is favoured in less risky environments because of the fitness benefits associated with faster rates of learning and problem-solving behaviour. PMID:27412278

  10. Rapid population divergence in thermal reaction norms for an invading species: breaking the temperature-size rule.

    PubMed

    Kingsolver, J G; Massie, K R; Ragland, G J; Smith, M H

    2007-05-01

    The temperature-size rule is a common pattern of phenotypic plasticity in which higher temperature during development results in a smaller adult body size (i.e. a thermal reaction norm with negative slope). Examples and exceptions to the rule are known in multiple groups of organisms, but rapid population differentiation in the temperature-size rule has not been explored. Here we examine the genetic and parental contributions to population differentiation in thermal reaction norms for size, development time and survival in the Cabbage White Butterfly Pieris rapae, for two geographical populations that have likely diverged within the past 150 years. We used split-sibship experiments with two temperature treatments (warm and cool) for P. rapae from Chapel Hill, NC, and from Seattle, WA. Mixed-effect model analyses demonstrate significant genetic differences between NC and WA populations for adult size and for thermal reaction norms for size. Mean adult mass was 12-24% greater in NC than in WA populations for both temperature treatments; mean size was unaffected or decreased with temperature (the temperature-size rule) for the WA population, but size increased with temperature for the NC population. Our study shows that the temperature-size rule and related thermal reaction norms can evolve rapidly within species in natural field conditions. Rapid evolutionary divergence argues against the existence of a simple, general mechanistic constraint as the underlying cause of the temperature-size rule.

  11. Eosinophil count - absolute

    MedlinePlus

    Eosinophils; Absolute eosinophil count ... the white blood cell count to give the absolute eosinophil count. ... than 500 cells per microliter (cells/mcL). Normal value ranges may vary slightly among different laboratories. Talk ...

  12. Asymptotic Distributions of Coalescence Times and Ancestral Lineage Numbers for Populations with Temporally Varying Size

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Hua; Chen, Kun

    2013-01-01

    The distributions of coalescence times and ancestral lineage numbers play an essential role in coalescent modeling and ancestral inference. Both exact distributions of coalescence times and ancestral lineage numbers are expressed as the sum of alternating series, and the terms in the series become numerically intractable for large samples. More computationally attractive are their asymptotic distributions, which were derived in Griffiths (1984) for populations with constant size. In this article, we derive the asymptotic distributions of coalescence times and ancestral lineage numbers for populations with temporally varying size. For a sample of size n, denote by Tm the mth coalescent time, when m + 1 lineages coalesce into m lineages, and An(t) the number of ancestral lineages at time t back from the current generation. Similar to the results in Griffiths (1984), the number of ancestral lineages, An(t), and the coalescence times, Tm, are asymptotically normal, with the mean and variance of these distributions depending on the population size function, N(t). At the very early stage of the coalescent, when t → 0, the number of coalesced lineages n − An(t) follows a Poisson distribution, and as m → n, n(n−1)Tm/2N(0) follows a gamma distribution. We demonstrate the accuracy of the asymptotic approximations by comparing to both exact distributions and coalescent simulations. Several applications of the theoretical results are also shown: deriving statistics related to the properties of gene genealogies, such as the time to the most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) and the total branch length (TBL) of the genealogy, and deriving the allele frequency spectrum for large genealogies. With the advent of genomic-level sequencing data for large samples, the asymptotic distributions are expected to have wide applications in theoretical and methodological development for population genetic inference. PMID:23666939

  13. Habitat-specific size structure variations in periwinkle populations ( Littorina littorea) caused by biotic factors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eschweiler, Nina; Molis, Markus; Buschbaum, Christian

    2009-06-01

    Shell size distribution patterns of marine gastropod populations may vary considerably across different environments. We investigated the size and density structure of genetically continuous periwinkle populations ( Littorina littorea) on an exposed rocky and a sheltered sedimentary environment on two nearby islands in the south-eastern North Sea (German Bight). On the sedimentary shore, periwinkle density (917 ± 722 individuals m-2) was about three times higher than on the rocky shore (296 ± 168 individuals m-2). Mean (9.8 ± 3.9 mm) and maximum (22 mm) shell size of L. littorea on the sedimentary shore were smaller than on the rocky shore (21.5 ± 4.2 and 32 mm, respectively), where only few small snails were found. Additionally, periwinkle shells were thicker and stronger on the rocky than on the sedimentary shore. To ascertain mechanisms responsible for differences in population structures, we examined periwinkles in both environments for growth rate, predation pressure, infection with a shell boring polychaete ( Polydora ciliata) and parasitic infestation by trematodes. A crosswise transplantation experiment revealed better growth conditions on the sedimentary than on the rocky shore. However, crab abundance and prevalence of parasites and P. ciliata in adult snails were higher on the sedimentary shore. Previous investigations showed that crabs prefer large periwinkles infested with P. ciliata. Thus, we suggest that parasites and shell boring P. ciliata in conjunction with an increased crab predation pressure are responsible for low abundances of large periwinkles on the sedimentary shore while high wave exposure may explain low densities of juvenile L. littorea on the rocky shore. We conclude that biotic factors may strongly contribute to observed differences in size structure of the L. littorea populations studied on rocky and sedimentary shores.

  14. Group selection on population size affects life-history patterns in the entomopathogenic nematode Steinernema carpocapsae.

    PubMed

    Bashey, Farrah; Lively, Curtis M

    2009-05-01

    Selection is recognized to operate on multiple levels. In disease organisms, selection among hosts is thought to provide an important counterbalance to selection for faster growth within hosts. We performed three experiments, each selecting for a divergence in group size in the entomopathogenic nematode, Steinernema carpocapsae. These nematodes infect and kill insect larvae, reproduce inside the host carcass, and emerge as infective juveniles. We imposed selection on group size by selecting among hosts for either high or low numbers of emerging nematodes. Our goal was to determine whether this trait could respond to selection at the group level, and if so, to examine what other traits would evolve as correlated responses. One of the three experiments showed a significant response to group selection. In that experiment, the high-selected treatment consistently produced more emerging nematodes per host than the low-selected treatment. In addition, nematodes were larger and they emerged later from hosts in the low-selected lines. Despite small effective population sizes, the effects of inbreeding were small in this experiment. Thus, selection among hosts can be effective, leading to both a direct evolutionary response at the population level, as well as to correlated responses in populational and individual traits.

  15. Mixture models for estimating the size of a closed population when capture rates vary among individuals

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dorazio, R.M.; Royle, J. Andrew

    2003-01-01

    We develop a parameterization of the beta-binomial mixture that provides sensible inferences about the size of a closed population when probabilities of capture or detection vary among individuals. Three classes of mixture models (beta-binomial, logistic-normal, and latent-class) are fitted to recaptures of snowshoe hares for estimating abundance and to counts of bird species for estimating species richness. In both sets of data, rates of detection appear to vary more among individuals (animals or species) than among sampling occasions or locations. The estimates of population size and species richness are sensitive to model-specific assumptions about the latent distribution of individual rates of detection. We demonstrate using simulation experiments that conventional diagnostics for assessing model adequacy, such as deviance, cannot be relied on for selecting classes of mixture models that produce valid inferences about population size. Prior knowledge about sources of individual heterogeneity in detection rates, if available, should be used to help select among classes of mixture models that are to be used for inference.

  16. N-mixture models for estimating population size from spatially replicated counts

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Royle, J. Andrew

    2004-01-01

    Spatial replication is a common theme in count surveys of animals. Such surveys often generate sparse count data from which it is difficult to estimate population size while formally accounting for detection probability. In this article, i describe a class of models (n-mixture models) which allow for estimation of population size from such data. The key idea is to view site-specific population sizes, n, as independent random variables distributed according to some mixing distribution (e.g., Poisson). Prior parameters are estimated from the marginal likelihood of the data, having integrated over the prior distribution for n. Carroll and lombard (1985, journal of american statistical association 80, 423-426) proposed a class of estimators based on mixing over a prior distribution for detection probability. Their estimator can be applied in limited settings, but is sensitive to prior parameter values that are fixed a priori. Spatial replication provides additional information regarding the parameters of the prior distribution on n that is exploited by the n-mixture models and which leads to reasonable estimates of abundance from sparse data. A simulation study demonstrates superior operating characteristics (bias, confidence interval coverage) of the n-mixture estimator compared to the caroll and lombard estimator. Both estimators are applied to point count data on six species of birds illustrating the sensitivity to choice of prior on p and substantially different estimates of abundance as a consequence.

  17. Selection on incremental variation of eye size in a wild population of Daphnia.

    PubMed

    Brandon, C S; James, T; Dudycha, J L

    2015-11-01

    Several studies of eye morphology have analysed macroevolutionary patterns in the diversity of eyes, and although these studies are often linked to environment or behaviour, they provide only indirect evidence of selection. Specific data to show the microevolutionary potential for adaptation by natural selection in eye morphology have been lacking. We document directional selection on eye size, an important determinant of visual capabilities, in a wild population of the freshwater microcrustacean Daphnia. We show that even slight changes in eye size may have major consequences for fitness. An increase in eye diameter of 19.9 μm - slightly more than one standard deviation - is associated with an increase in clutch size of one egg, or an increase of nearly 20% of the mean clutch size. Furthermore, relative eye size is genetically variable and thus could evolve in response to the observed selective pressure. We conclude that selection on incremental variation in eye size may have led to differences observed on broader taxonomic scales.

  18. Estimating the number of sex workers in South Africa: rapid population size estimation.

    PubMed

    Konstant, Tracey L; Rangasami, Jerushah; Stacey, Maria J; Stewart, Michelle L; Nogoduka, Coceka

    2015-02-01

    Although recognized as a vulnerable population, there is no national population size estimate for sex workers in South Africa. A rapid sex worker enumeration exercise was undertaken in twelve locations across the country based on principles of participatory mapping and Wisdom of the Crowd. Sites with a range of characteristics were selected, focusing on level of urbanisation, trucking, mining and borders. At each site, sex worker focus groups mapped local hotspots. Interviews with sex workers at identified hotspots were used to estimate the numbers and genders of sex workers working in each. Estimates provided in the literature were combined with enumeration exercise results to define assumptions that could be applied to a national extrapolation. A working estimate was reached of between 131,000 and 182,000 sex worker in South Africa, or between 0.76 and 1 % of the adult female population. The success of the exercise depended on integral involvement of sex worker peer educators and strong ethical considerations.

  19. Legacy lost: genetic variability and population size of extirpated US grey wolves (Canis lupus).

    PubMed

    Leonard, Jennifer A; Vilà, Carles; Wayne, Robert K

    2005-01-01

    By the mid 20th century, the grey wolf (Canis lupus) was exterminated from most of the conterminous United States (cUS) and Mexico. However, because wolves disperse over long distances, extant populations in Canada and Alaska might have retained a substantial proportion of the genetic diversity once found in the cUS. We analysed mitochondrial DNA sequences of 34 pre-extermination wolves and found that they had more than twice the diversity of their modern conspecifics, implying a historic population size of several hundred thousand wolves in the western cUS and Mexico. Further, two-thirds of the haplotypes found in the historic sample are unique. Sequences from Mexican grey wolves (C. l. baileyi) and some historic grey wolves defined a unique southern clade supporting a much wider geographical mandate for the reintroduction of Mexican wolves than currently planned. Our results highlight the genetic consequences of population extinction within Ice Age refugia and imply that restoration goals for grey wolves in the western cUS include far less area and target vastly lower population sizes than existed historically.

  20. Low effective population size and evidence for inbreeding in an overexploited flatfish, plaice (Pleuronectes platessa L.)

    PubMed Central

    Hoarau, Galice; Boon, Eva; Jongma, Dorris N; Ferber, Steven; Palsson, Jonbjorn; Van der Veer, Henk W; Rijnsdorp, Adriaan D; Stam, Wytze T; Olsen, Jeanine L

    2005-01-01

    Overexploitation and subsequent collapse of major worldwide fisheries has made it clear that marine stocks are not inexhaustible. Unfortunately, the perception remains that marine fishes are resilient to large population reductions, as even a commercially ‘collapsed’ stock will still consist of millions of individuals. Coupled with this notion is the idea that fisheries can, therefore, have little effect on the genetic diversity of stocks. We used DNA from archived otoliths collected between 1924 and 1972 together with 2002 juvenile's tissue to estimate effective population size (Ne) in plaice (Pleuronectes platessa). Ne was estimated at 20 000 in the North Sea and 2000 in Iceland. These values are five orders of magnitude smaller than the estimated census size for the two locations. Populations examined between 1924 and 1960 were in Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium, whereas populations examined after approximately 1970 were not. Extensive testing was performed to rule out genotyping artefacts and Wahlund effects. The significant heterozygote deficiencies found from 1970 onward were attributed to inbreeding. The emergence of inbreeding between 1950 and 1970 coincides with the increase in fishing mortality after World War II. Although the biological mechanisms remain speculative, our demonstration of inbreeding signals the need for understanding the social and mating behaviour in commercially important fishes. PMID:15799945

  1. The Effects of Population Size Histories on Estimates of Selection Coefficients from Time-Series Genetic Data

    PubMed Central

    Jewett, Ethan M.; Steinrücken, Matthias; Song, Yun S.

    2016-01-01

    Many approaches have been developed for inferring selection coefficients from time series data while accounting for genetic drift. These approaches have been motivated by the intuition that properly accounting for the population size history can significantly improve estimates of selective strengths. However, the improvement in inference accuracy that can be attained by modeling drift has not been characterized. Here, by comparing maximum likelihood estimates of selection coefficients that account for the true population size history with estimates that ignore drift by assuming allele frequencies evolve deterministically in a population of infinite size, we address the following questions: how much can modeling the population size history improve estimates of selection coefficients? How much can mis-inferred population sizes hurt inferences of selection coefficients? We conduct our analysis under the discrete Wright–Fisher model by deriving the exact probability of an allele frequency trajectory in a population of time-varying size and we replicate our results under the diffusion model. For both models, we find that ignoring drift leads to estimates of selection coefficients that are nearly as accurate as estimates that account for the true population history, even when population sizes are small and drift is high. This result is of interest because inference methods that ignore drift are widely used in evolutionary studies and can be many orders of magnitude faster than methods that account for population sizes. PMID:27550904

  2. Reconstructing the size distribution of the small body population in the Solar System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lambrechts, Michiel; Morbidelli, Alessandro

    2016-10-01

    The size distributions of the populations of small bodies in the solar system (the asteroid belt, the hot Kuiper belt and the cold Kuiper belt) show a striking similarity: they all show an elbow at a diameter of about D=100km. At D<100km, all size distributions have the same slope, dictated by collisional equilibrium. At D>100km, the slopes are different, the cold Kuiper belt having the steepest slope, while the hot Kuiper belt and the asteroid belt have progressively more shallow slopes. Moreover, the asteroid belt and hot Kuiper belt show a turnover to a shallow size distribution at sizes larger than D=300-500km. Johansen et al. (2015) explained the elbow and the transition to a steeper slope assuming that the original planetesimals had D<100km and that they grew further by the process of pebble accretion, the sweep up of small particles aided by gas drag. However, the origin of the differences between the slopes of the three populations remained unclear.Here we investigate the problem using a particle-in-a-box code, that treats collisional coagulation, fragmentation, dynamical stirring and damping, to which we have added growth by pebble accretion for objects with possibly eccentric and inclined orbits.We show that the size distribution above D=100km is set by a combination of planetesimal collisions and the sweeping up of pebbles. Thus, the final slopes are diagnostic of the collisionial rate and the initial total mass of the planetesimal population. The size distribution for the largest asteroids and hot Kuiper belt objects are consistent with growth dominated by the accretion of pebbles. The observed size distributions also places constraints on the dominant particle size, the level of midplane turbulence and nebular conditions at different orbital radii in the Solar nebula. Our findings hint that the asteroid belt largely formed close to the dissipation of the gas disc and that its final total mass was comparable to that of the Earth.

  3. Extent of Linkage Disequilibrium and Effective Population Size in Four South African Sanga Cattle Breeds

    PubMed Central

    Makina, Sithembile O.; Taylor, Jeremy F.; van Marle-Köster, Este; Muchadeyi, Farai C.; Makgahlela, Mahlako L.; MacNeil, Michael D.; Maiwashe, Azwihangwisi

    2015-01-01

    Knowledge on the extent of linkage disequilibrium (LD) in livestock populations is essential to determine the minimum distance between markers required for effective coverage when conducting genome-wide association studies (GWAS). This study evaluated the extent of LD, persistence of allelic phase and effective population size (Ne) for four Sanga cattle breeds in South Africa including the Afrikaner (n = 44), Nguni (n = 54), Drakensberger (n = 47), and Bonsmara breeds (n = 46), using Angus (n = 31) and Holstein (n = 29) as reference populations. We found that moderate LD extends up to inter-marker distances of 40–60 kb in Angus (0.21) and Holstein (0.21) and up to 100 kb in Afrikaner (0.20). This suggests that genomic selection and association studies performed within these breeds using an average inter-marker r2≥ 0.20 would require about 30,000–50,000 SNPs. However, r2≥ 0.20 extended only up to 10–20 kb in the Nguni and Drakensberger and 20–40 kb in the Bonsmara indicating that 75,000 to 150,000 SNPs would be necessary for GWAS in these breeds. Correlation between alleles at contiguous loci indicated that phase was not strongly preserved between breeds. This suggests the need for breed-specific reference populations in which a much greater density of markers should be scored to identify breed specific haplotypes which may then be imputed into multi-breed commercial populations. Analysis of effective population size based on the extent of LD, revealed Ne = 95 (Nguni), Ne = 87 (Drakensberger), Ne = 77 (Bonsmara), and Ne = 41 (Afrikaner). Results of this study form the basis for implementation of genomic selection programs in the Sanga breeds of South Africa. PMID:26648975

  4. On the importance of being structured: instantaneous coalescence rates and human evolution--lessons for ancestral population size inference?

    PubMed

    Mazet, O; Rodríguez, W; Grusea, S; Boitard, S; Chikhi, L

    2016-04-01

    Most species are structured and influenced by processes that either increased or reduced gene flow between populations. However, most population genetic inference methods assume panmixia and reconstruct a history characterized by population size changes. This is potentially problematic as population structure can generate spurious signals of population size change through time. Moreover, when the model assumed for demographic inference is misspecified, genomic data will likely increase the precision of misleading if not meaningless parameters. For instance, if data were generated under an n-island model (characterized by the number of islands and migrants exchanged) inference based on a model of population size change would produce precise estimates of a bottleneck that would be meaningless. In addition, archaeological or climatic events around the bottleneck's timing might provide a reasonable but potentially misleading scenario. In a context of model uncertainty (panmixia versus structure) genomic data may thus not necessarily lead to improved statistical inference. We consider two haploid genomes and develop a theory that explains why any demographic model with structure will necessarily be interpreted as a series of changes in population size by inference methods ignoring structure. We formalize a parameter, the inverse instantaneous coalescence rate, and show that it is equivalent to a population size only in panmictic models, and is mostly misleading for structured models. We argue that this issue affects all population genetics methods ignoring population structure which may thus infer population size changes that never took place. We apply our approach to human genomic data. PMID:26647653

  5. Genetic effective size of a wild primate population: influence of current and historical demography.

    PubMed

    Storz, Jay F; Ramakrishnan, Uma; Alberts, Susan C

    2002-04-01

    A comprehensive assessment of the determinants of effective population size (N(e)) requires estimates of variance in lifetime reproductive success and past changes in census numbers. For natural populations, such information can be best obtained by combining longitudinal data on individual life histories and genetic marker-based inferences of demographic history. Independent estimates of the variance effective size (N(ev), obtained from life-history data) and the inbreeding effective size (N((eI), obtained from genetic data) provide a means of disentangling the effects of current and historical demography. The purpose of this study was to assess the demographic determinants of N(e) in one of the most intensively studied natural populations of a vertebrate species: the population of savannah baboons (Papio cynocephalus) in the Amboseli Basin, southern Kenya. We tested the hypotheses that N(eV) < N < N(eI) (where N = population census number) due to a recent demographic bottleneck. N(eV) was estimated using a stochastic demographic model based on detailed life-history data spanning a 28-year period. Using empirical estimates of age-specific rates of survival and fertility for both sexes, individual-based simulations were used to estimate the variance in lifetime reproductive success. The resultant values translated into an N(eV)/N estimate of 0.329 (SD = 0.116, 95% CI = 0.172-0.537). Historical N(eI), was estimated from 14-locus microsatellite genotypes using a coalescent-based simulation model. Estimates of N(eI) were 2.2 to 7.2 times higher than the contemporary census number of the Amboseli baboon population. In addition to the effects of immigration, the disparity between historical N(eI) and contemporary N is likely attributable to the time lag between the recent drop in census numbers and the rate of increase in the average probability of allelic identity-by-descent. Thus, observed levels of genetic diversity may primarily reflect the population's prebottleneck

  6. Using Wolbachia Releases to Estimate Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) Population Size and Survival

    PubMed Central

    Garcia, Gabriela de Azambuja; dos Santos, Lilha Maria Barbosa; Villela, Daniel Antunes Maciel; Maciel-de-Freitas, Rafael

    2016-01-01

    Mosquitoes carrying the endosymbiont bacterium Wolbachia have been deployed in field trials as a biological control intervention due to Wolbachia effects on reducing transmission of arboviruses. We performed mark, release and recapture (MRR) experiments using Wolbachia as an internal marker with daily collections with BG-Traps during the first two weeks of releases in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The MRR design allowed us to investigate two critical parameters that determine whether Wolbachia would successful invade a field population: the probability of daily survival (PDS) of Wolbachia-infected Aedes aegypti females, and the wild population density during releases. Released females had a PDS of 0.82 and 0.89 in the first and second weeks, respectively, immediately after releases, which is well within the range of previous estimates of survivorship of wild mosquitoes in Rio de Janeiro. Abundance estimation of wild population varied up to 10-fold higher depending on the estimation method used (634–3565 females on the average-difference model to 6365–16188 females according to Lincoln-Petersen). Wolbachia-released mosquitoes were lower than the density estimation of their wild counterparts, irrespectively of the model used. Individually screening mosquitoes for the presence of Wolbachia reduced uncertainty on abundance estimations due to fluctuation in capturing per week. A successful invasion into local population requires Ae. aegypti fitness is unaffected by Wolbachia presence, but also reliable estimates on the population size of wild mosquitoes. PMID:27479050

  7. The Cultural Evolution of Human Communication Systems in Different Sized Populations: Usability Trumps Learnability

    PubMed Central

    Fay, Nicolas; Ellison, T. Mark

    2013-01-01

    This study examines the intergenerational transfer of human communication systems. It tests if human communication systems evolve to be easy to learn or easy to use (or both), and how population size affects learnability and usability. Using an experimental-semiotic task, we find that human communication systems evolve to be easier to use (production efficiency and reproduction fidelity), but harder to learn (identification accuracy) for a second generation of naïve participants. Thus, usability trumps learnability. In addition, the communication systems that evolve in larger populations exhibit distinct advantages over those that evolve in smaller populations: the learnability loss (from the Initial signs) is more muted and the usability benefits are more pronounced. The usability benefits for human communication systems that evolve in a small and large population is explained through guided variation reducing sign complexity. The enhanced performance of the communication systems that evolve in larger populations is explained by the operation of a content bias acting on the larger pool of competing signs. The content bias selects for information-efficient iconic signs that aid learnability and enhance usability. PMID:23967243

  8. The cultural evolution of human communication systems in different sized populations: usability trumps learnability.

    PubMed

    Fay, Nicolas; Ellison, T Mark

    2013-01-01

    This study examines the intergenerational transfer of human communication systems. It tests if human communication systems evolve to be easy to learn or easy to use (or both), and how population size affects learnability and usability. Using an experimental-semiotic task, we find that human communication systems evolve to be easier to use (production efficiency and reproduction fidelity), but harder to learn (identification accuracy) for a second generation of naïve participants. Thus, usability trumps learnability. In addition, the communication systems that evolve in larger populations exhibit distinct advantages over those that evolve in smaller populations: the learnability loss (from the Initial signs) is more muted and the usability benefits are more pronounced. The usability benefits for human communication systems that evolve in a small and large population is explained through guided variation reducing sign complexity. The enhanced performance of the communication systems that evolve in larger populations is explained by the operation of a content bias acting on the larger pool of competing signs. The content bias selects for information-efficient iconic signs that aid learnability and enhance usability. PMID:23967243

  9. The cultural evolution of human communication systems in different sized populations: usability trumps learnability.

    PubMed

    Fay, Nicolas; Ellison, T Mark

    2013-01-01

    This study examines the intergenerational transfer of human communication systems. It tests if human communication systems evolve to be easy to learn or easy to use (or both), and how population size affects learnability and usability. Using an experimental-semiotic task, we find that human communication systems evolve to be easier to use (production efficiency and reproduction fidelity), but harder to learn (identification accuracy) for a second generation of naïve participants. Thus, usability trumps learnability. In addition, the communication systems that evolve in larger populations exhibit distinct advantages over those that evolve in smaller populations: the learnability loss (from the Initial signs) is more muted and the usability benefits are more pronounced. The usability benefits for human communication systems that evolve in a small and large population is explained through guided variation reducing sign complexity. The enhanced performance of the communication systems that evolve in larger populations is explained by the operation of a content bias acting on the larger pool of competing signs. The content bias selects for information-efficient iconic signs that aid learnability and enhance usability.

  10. Preferred habitat and effective population size drive landscape genetic patterns in an endangered species

    PubMed Central

    Weckworth, Byron V.; Musiani, Marco; DeCesare, Nicholas J.; McDevitt, Allan D.; Hebblewhite, Mark; Mariani, Stefano

    2013-01-01

    Landscape genetics provides a framework for pinpointing environmental features that determine the important exchange of migrants among populations. These studies usually test the significance of environmental variables on gene flow, yet ignore one fundamental driver of genetic variation in small populations, effective population size, Ne. We combined both approaches in evaluating genetic connectivity of a threatened ungulate, woodland caribou. We used least-cost paths to calculate matrices of resistance distance for landscape variables (preferred habitat, anthropogenic features and predation risk) and population-pairwise harmonic means of Ne, and correlated them with genetic distances, FST and Dc. Results showed that spatial configuration of preferred habitat and Ne were the two best predictors of genetic relationships. Additionally, controlling for the effect of Ne increased the strength of correlations of environmental variables with genetic distance, highlighting the significant underlying effect of Ne in modulating genetic drift and perceived spatial connectivity. We therefore have provided empirical support to emphasize preventing increased habitat loss and promoting population growth to ensure metapopulation viability. PMID:24004939

  11. From intracellular signaling to population oscillations: bridging size- and time-scales in collective behavior

    PubMed Central

    Sgro, Allyson E; Schwab, David J; Noorbakhsh, Javad; Mestler, Troy; Mehta, Pankaj; Gregor, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    Collective behavior in cellular populations is coordinated by biochemical signaling networks within individual cells. Connecting the dynamics of these intracellular networks to the population phenomena they control poses a considerable challenge because of network complexity and our limited knowledge of kinetic parameters. However, from physical systems, we know that behavioral changes in the individual constituents of a collectively behaving system occur in a limited number of well-defined classes, and these can be described using simple models. Here, we apply such an approach to the emergence of collective oscillations in cellular populations of the social amoeba Dictyostelium discoideum. Through direct tests of our model with quantitative in vivo measurements of single-cell and population signaling dynamics, we show how a simple model can effectively describe a complex molecular signaling network at multiple size and temporal scales. The model predicts novel noise-driven single-cell and population-level signaling phenomena that we then experimentally observe. Our results suggest that like physical systems, collective behavior in biology may be universal and described using simple mathematical models. PMID:25617347

  12. Differing mechanisms underlie sexual size-dimorphism in two populations of a sex-changing fish.

    PubMed

    McCormick, Mark I; Ryen, Christopher A; Munday, Philip L; Walker, Stefan P W

    2010-05-12

    Variability in the density of groups within a patchy environment lead to differences in interaction rates, growth dynamics and social organization. In protogynous hermaphrodites there are hypothesised trade-offs among sex-specific growth, reproductive output and mortality. When differences in density lead to changes to social organization the link between growth and the timing of sex-change is predicted to change. The present study explores this prediction by comparing the social organisation and sex-specific growth of two populations of a protogynous tropical wrasse, Halichoeres miniatus, which differ in density. At a low density population a strict harem structure was found, where males maintained a tight monopoly of access and spawning rights to females. In contrast, at a high density population a loosely organised system prevailed, where females could move throughout multiple male territories. Otolith microstructure revealed the species to be annual and deposit an otolith check associated with sex-change. Growth trajectories suggested that individuals that later became males in both populations underwent a growth acceleration at sex-change. Moreover, in the high density population, individuals that later became males were those individuals that had the largest otolith size at hatching and consistently deposited larger increments throughout early larval, juvenile and female life. This study demonstrates that previous growth history and growth rate changes associated with sex change can be responsible for the sexual dimorphism typically found in sex-changing species, and that the relative importance of these may be socially constrained.

  13. Using Wolbachia Releases to Estimate Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) Population Size and Survival.

    PubMed

    Garcia, Gabriela de Azambuja; Dos Santos, Lilha Maria Barbosa; Villela, Daniel Antunes Maciel; Maciel-de-Freitas, Rafael

    2016-01-01

    Mosquitoes carrying the endosymbiont bacterium Wolbachia have been deployed in field trials as a biological control intervention due to Wolbachia effects on reducing transmission of arboviruses. We performed mark, release and recapture (MRR) experiments using Wolbachia as an internal marker with daily collections with BG-Traps during the first two weeks of releases in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The MRR design allowed us to investigate two critical parameters that determine whether Wolbachia would successful invade a field population: the probability of daily survival (PDS) of Wolbachia-infected Aedes aegypti females, and the wild population density during releases. Released females had a PDS of 0.82 and 0.89 in the first and second weeks, respectively, immediately after releases, which is well within the range of previous estimates of survivorship of wild mosquitoes in Rio de Janeiro. Abundance estimation of wild population varied up to 10-fold higher depending on the estimation method used (634-3565 females on the average-difference model to 6365-16188 females according to Lincoln-Petersen). Wolbachia-released mosquitoes were lower than the density estimation of their wild counterparts, irrespectively of the model used. Individually screening mosquitoes for the presence of Wolbachia reduced uncertainty on abundance estimations due to fluctuation in capturing per week. A successful invasion into local population requires Ae. aegypti fitness is unaffected by Wolbachia presence, but also reliable estimates on the population size of wild mosquitoes. PMID:27479050

  14. Temporal sampling helps unravel the genetic structure of naturally occurring populations of a phytoparasitic nematode. 1. Insights from the estimation of effective population sizes.

    PubMed

    Jan, Pierre-Loup; Gracianne, Cécile; Fournet, Sylvain; Olivier, Eric; Arnaud, Jean-François; Porte, Catherine; Bardou-Valette, Sylvie; Denis, Marie-Christine; Petit, Eric J

    2016-03-01

    The sustainability of modern agriculture relies on strategies that can control the ability of pathogens to overcome chemicals or genetic resistances through natural selection. This evolutionary potential, which depends partly on effective population size (N e ), is greatly influenced by human activities. In this context, wild pathogen populations can provide valuable information for assessing the long-term risk associated with crop pests. In this study, we estimated the effective population size of the beet cyst nematode, Heterodera schachtii, by sampling 34 populations infecting the sea beet Beta vulgaris spp. maritima twice within a one-year period. Only 20 populations produced enough generations to analyze the variation in allele frequencies, with the remaining populations showing a high mortality rate of the host plant after only 1 year. The 20 analyzed populations showed surprisingly low effective population sizes, with most having N e close to 85 individuals. We attribute these low values to the variation in population size through time, systematic inbreeding, and unbalanced sex-ratios. Our results suggest that H. schachtii has low evolutionary potential in natural environments. Pest control strategies in which populations on crops mimic wild populations may help prevent parasite adaptation to host resistance.

  15. Temporal sampling helps unravel the genetic structure of naturally occurring populations of a phytoparasitic nematode. 1. Insights from the estimation of effective population sizes.

    PubMed

    Jan, Pierre-Loup; Gracianne, Cécile; Fournet, Sylvain; Olivier, Eric; Arnaud, Jean-François; Porte, Catherine; Bardou-Valette, Sylvie; Denis, Marie-Christine; Petit, Eric J

    2016-03-01

    The sustainability of modern agriculture relies on strategies that can control the ability of pathogens to overcome chemicals or genetic resistances through natural selection. This evolutionary potential, which depends partly on effective population size (N e ), is greatly influenced by human activities. In this context, wild pathogen populations can provide valuable information for assessing the long-term risk associated with crop pests. In this study, we estimated the effective population size of the beet cyst nematode, Heterodera schachtii, by sampling 34 populations infecting the sea beet Beta vulgaris spp. maritima twice within a one-year period. Only 20 populations produced enough generations to analyze the variation in allele frequencies, with the remaining populations showing a high mortality rate of the host plant after only 1 year. The 20 analyzed populations showed surprisingly low effective population sizes, with most having N e close to 85 individuals. We attribute these low values to the variation in population size through time, systematic inbreeding, and unbalanced sex-ratios. Our results suggest that H. schachtii has low evolutionary potential in natural environments. Pest control strategies in which populations on crops mimic wild populations may help prevent parasite adaptation to host resistance. PMID:26989440

  16. Albedo, Size and Taxonomy of the Small Body Populations Outside the Main Belt

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grav, Tommy; Mainzer, Amy; Bauer, James; Masiero, Joseph R.; Cutri, Roc; Nugent, Carrie; Sonnett, Sarah; Kramer, Emily A.

    2015-11-01

    Using the data from the WISE/NEOWISE mission we have derived albedo and size distributions of ~1200 Cybeles, ~1000 Hildas, ~1700 Jovian Trojans and a dozen irregular satellites of Jupiter and Saturn. These data increases by an order of magnitude our knowledge of the makeup of the small body populations between the Main Belt and Saturn. We find that all these populations are dominated by low albedo objects, with only the Cybeles (with less than 10%) having any significant fraction of possible interloper objects with albedo higher than 15%. Using the near-infrared albedos (in the 3.4 and 4.6μm bands, denoted W1 and W2 respectively) we were able to derive the taxonomic classifications of the largest objects in each population, showing that they are dominated by surfaces that are similar to C-, P- and D-type asteroids. The dominance of these dark, primitive surfaces indicate two possible formation scenarios. These small body populations may have been formed in situ beyond the snow line, potentially serving as bodies that can provide significant insight into the composition of the early Solar Nebula in the region of the current Giant Planets. Alternatively, they may be captured bodies that were perturbed from the region outside the Giant Planets as the planets migrated during the early stages of Solar System formation. This allows for insight into the composition of the Trans-Neptunian population by study of populations that are significantly closer, brighter and more accessible. The low percentages of potentially higher albedo, stony objects common in the Main Asteroid Belt indicates that only a few of these objects have embedded themselves into these populations, potentially imposing significant constraints on the migration of Jupiter inside its current orbit.

  17. Effective population size dynamics and the demographic collapse of Bornean orang-utans.

    PubMed

    Sharma, Reeta; Arora, Natasha; Goossens, Benoit; Nater, Alexander; Morf, Nadja; Salmona, Jordi; Bruford, Michael W; Van Schaik, Carel P; Krützen, Michael; Chikhi, Lounès

    2012-01-01

    Bornean orang-utans experienced a major demographic decline and local extirpations during the Pleistocene and Holocene due to climate change, the arrival of modern humans, of farmers and recent commercially-driven habitat loss and fragmentation. The recent loss of habitat and its dramatic fragmentation has affected the patterns of genetic variability and differentiation among the remaining populations and increased the extinction risk of the most isolated ones. However, the contribution of recent demographic events to such genetic patterns is still not fully clear. Indeed, it can be difficult to separate the effects of recent anthropogenic fragmentation from the genetic signature of prehistoric demographic events. Here, we investigated the genetic structure and population size dynamics of orang-utans from different sites. Altogether 126 individuals were analyzed and a full-likelihood Bayesian approach was applied. All sites exhibited clear signals of population decline. Population structure is known to generate spurious bottleneck signals and we found that it does indeed contribute to the signals observed. However, population structure alone does not easily explain the observed patterns. The dating of the population decline varied across sites but was always within the 200-2000 years period. This suggests that in some sites at least, orang-utan populations were affected by demographic events that started before the recent anthropogenic effects that occurred in Borneo. These results do not mean that the recent forest exploitation did not leave its genetic mark on orang-utans but suggests that the genetic pool of orang-utans is also impacted by more ancient events. While we cannot identify the main cause for this decline, our results suggests that the decline may be related to the arrival of the first farmers or climatic events, and that more theoretical work is needed to understand how multiple demographic events impact the genome of species and how we can assess

  18. Effective Population Size Dynamics and the Demographic Collapse of Bornean Orang-Utans

    PubMed Central

    Goossens, Benoit; Nater, Alexander; Morf, Nadja; Salmona, Jordi; Bruford, Michael W.; Van Schaik, Carel P.; Krützen, Michael; Chikhi, Lounès

    2012-01-01

    Bornean orang-utans experienced a major demographic decline and local extirpations during the Pleistocene and Holocene due to climate change, the arrival of modern humans, of farmers and recent commercially-driven habitat loss and fragmentation. The recent loss of habitat and its dramatic fragmentation has affected the patterns of genetic variability and differentiation among the remaining populations and increased the extinction risk of the most isolated ones. However, the contribution of recent demographic events to such genetic patterns is still not fully clear. Indeed, it can be difficult to separate the effects of recent anthropogenic fragmentation from the genetic signature of prehistoric demographic events. Here, we investigated the genetic structure and population size dynamics of orang-utans from different sites. Altogether 126 individuals were analyzed and a full-likelihood Bayesian approach was applied. All sites exhibited clear signals of population decline. Population structure is known to generate spurious bottleneck signals and we found that it does indeed contribute to the signals observed. However, population structure alone does not easily explain the observed patterns. The dating of the population decline varied across sites but was always within the 200–2000 years period. This suggests that in some sites at least, orang-utan populations were affected by demographic events that started before the recent anthropogenic effects that occurred in Borneo. These results do not mean that the recent forest exploitation did not leave its genetic mark on orang-utans but suggests that the genetic pool of orang-utans is also impacted by more ancient events. While we cannot identify the main cause for this decline, our results suggests that the decline may be related to the arrival of the first farmers or climatic events, and that more theoretical work is needed to understand how multiple demographic events impact the genome of species and how we can assess

  19. Is more better? Higher sterilization of infected hosts need not result in reduced pest population size.

    PubMed

    Maxin, Daniel; Berec, Luděk; Bingham, Adrienna; Molitor, Denali; Pattyson, Julie

    2015-05-01

    We analyze the effect of sterilization in the infected hosts in several epidemiological models involving infectious diseases that can be transmitted both vertically and horizontally. Sterilizing pathogens can be used as pest control agents by intentionally inoculating the target population, with the goal of reducing or eliminating it completely. Contrary to previous models that did not include vertical transmission we found that the population size at the endemic equilibrium may actually increase with higher levels of sterility. This effect is proved to exist for low to high efficiencies of vertical transmission. On the other hand, if the disease is sexually transmitted and the host reproduction and disease transmission are both consistently mediated by mating, we do not observe such a counter-intuitive effect and the population size in the stable endemic equilibrium is decreasing with higher levels of sterility. We suggest that models of the pest control techniques involving the release of sterilizing pathogens have to carefully consider the routes such pathogens use for transmission.

  20. Ribosomal RNA gene diversity, effective population size, and evolutionary longevity in asexual glomeromycota.

    PubMed

    Vankuren, Nicholas W; den Bakker, Henk C; Morton, Joseph B; Pawlowska, Teresa E

    2013-01-01

    Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (phylum Glomeromycota) are among the oldest and most successful symbionts of land plants. With no evidence of sexual reproduction, their evolutionary success is inconsistent with the prediction that asexual taxa are vulnerable to extinction due to accumulation of deleterious mutations. To explore why Glomeromycota defy this prediction, we studied ribosomal RNA (rRNA) gene evolution in the Claroideoglomus lineage and estimated effective population size, N(e) , in C. etunicatum. We found that rRNA genes of these fungi exhibit unusual and complex patterns of molecular evolution. In C. etunicatum, these patterns can be collectively explained by an unexpectedly large N(e) combined with imperfect genome-wide and population-level rRNA gene repeat homogenization. The mutations accumulated in rRNA gene sequences indicate that natural selection is effective at purging deleterious mutations in the Claroideoglomus lineage, which is also consistent with the large N(e) of C. etunicatum. We propose that in the near absence of recombination, asexual reproduction involving massively multinucleate spores typical for Glomeromycota is responsible for the improved efficacy of selection relative to drift. We postulate that large effective population sizes contribute to the evolutionary longevity of Glomeromycota.

  1. Population and temperature effects on Lucilia sericata (Diptera: Calliphoridae) body size and minimum development time.

    PubMed

    Tarone, A M; Picard, C J; Spiegelman, C; Foran, D R

    2011-09-01

    Understanding how ecological conditions influence physiological responses is fundamental to forensic entomology. When determining the minimum postmortem interval with blow fly evidence in forensic investigations, using a reliable and accurate model of development is integral. Many published studies vary in results, source populations, and experimental designs. Accordingly, disentangling genetic causes of developmental variation from environmental causes is difficult. This study determined the minimum time of development and pupal sizes of three populations of Lucilia sericata Meigen (Diptera: Calliphoridae; from California, Michigan, and West Virginia) at two temperatures (20 degrees C and 33.5 degrees C). Development times differed significantly between strain and temperature. In addition, California pupae were the largest and fastest developing at 20 degrees C, but at 33.5 degrees C, though they still maintained their rank in size among the three populations, they were the slowest to develop. These results indicate a need to account for genetic differences in development, and genetic variation in environmental responses, when estimating a postmortem interval with entomological data.

  2. Large population size predicts the distribution of asexuality in scale insects.

    PubMed

    Ross, Laura; Hardy, Nate B; Okusu, Akiko; Normark, Benjamin B

    2013-01-01

    Understanding why some organisms reproduce by sexual reproduction while others can reproduce asexually remains an important unsolved problem in evolutionary biology. Simple demography suggests that asexuals should outcompete sexually reproducing organisms, because of their higher intrinsic rate of increase. However, the majority of multicellular organisms have sexual reproduction. The widely accepted explanation for this apparent contradiction is that asexual lineages have a higher extinction rate. A number of models have indicated that population size might play a crucial role in the evolution of asexuality. The strength of processes that lead to extinction of asexual species is reduced when population sizes get very large, so that the long-term advantage of sexual over asexual reproduction may become negligible. Here, we use a comparative approach using scale insects (Coccoidea, Hemiptera) to show that asexuality is indeed more common in species with larger population density and geographic distribution and we also show that asexual species tend to be more polyphagous. We discuss the implication of our findings for previously observed patterns of asexuality in agricultural pests.

  3. Population size, survival, and movements of white-cheeked pintails in Eastern Puerto Rico

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Collazo, J.A.; Bonilla-Martinez, G.

    2001-01-01

    We estimated numbers and survival of White-cheeked Pintails (Anas bahamensis) in eastern Puerto Rico during 1996-1999. We also quantified their movements between Culebra Island and the Humacao Wildlife Refuge, Puerto Rico. Mark-resight population size estimates averaged 1020 pintails during nine, 3-month sampling periods from January 1997 to June 1999. On average, minimum regional counts were 38 % lower than mark-resight estimates (mean = 631). Adult survival was 0.51 ?? 0.09 (SE). This estimate is similar for other anatids of similar size but broader geographic distribution. The probability of pintails surviving and staying in Humacao was hiher (67 %) than for counterparts on Culebra (31 %). The probability of surviving and moving from Culebra to Humacao (41 %) was higher than from Humacao to Culebra (20 %). These findings, and available information on reproduction, indicate that the Humacao Wildlife Refuge refuge has an important role in the regional demography of pintails. Our findings on population numbers and regional survival are encouraging, given concerns about the species' status due to habitat loss and hunting. However, our outlook for the species is tempered by the remaining gaps in the population dynamics of pintails; for examples, survival estimates of broods and fledglings (age 0-1) are needed for a comprehensive status assessment. Until additional data are obtianed, White-cheeked Pintails should continue to be protectd from hunting in Puerto Rico.

  4. [Characteristics of pedigree cat breeding in the Netherlands: breeds, population increase and litter size].

    PubMed

    Gerrits, P O; Huisman, T; Knol, B W

    1999-03-01

    A survey of the Dutch Cat Fancy was carried out to determine reproductive, patterns of pedigree cats. The data of the present study were obtained by questioning the pedigree registers of the cat clubs participating in the foundation 'Overleg Platform van de Nederlandse Cat Fancy'. The Dutch Cat Fancy registers 34 different cat breeds. From 1992 up to 1996 a total of 25.985 litters were registered. Over this period the number of litters increased from 4989 to 5313. Litters from Longhair and Exotic Shorthair cats comprised the biggest group and accounted for 55% of the total number of litters. However, over this period, the number of Longhair and Exotic Shorthair litters decreased by 9%. Litters from British Shorthair, Birman, Maine Coon and Norwegian Forrest Cat increased in number as did litters from small breeds such as Ragdoll, Bengal and Sphynx. Litters from Abyssinian, Siamese, Oriental Shorthair cats remained relatively the same. The average litter size of the total cat population, based on pedigree certificates, was calculated at 3.3 kittens per litter. For different breeds litter size varied from 2.7 (Longhair and Exotic Shorthair) to 4.3 (Burmese and Maine Coon). Taking into account an average age of 14 years, the total Dutch pedigree cat population was estimated at 240,000 viz. about 10% of the total cat population.

  5. Movement and population size of American shad near a low-head lock and dam

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bailey, M.M.; Isely, J.J.; Bridges, W.C.

    2004-01-01

    We investigated the population size and the proportion of the population of American shad Alosa sapidissima that passed through the New Savannah Bluff Lock and Dam, a low-head lock and dam on the Savannah River in South Carolina and Georgia. We fitted 110 American shad with radio transmitters in 2001 and 2002. All but two fish moved downstream after transmitter implantation. In 2001, a smaller proportion of American shad implanted with radio transmitters earlier in the season returned to the dam than fish released later. Of the fish that returned to the dam, over 50% in 2001 and 9% in 2002 passed through the lock and continued migrating upstream. In both years, the modal daily movement distance was less than 1 km. Movements greater than 5 km/d were generally associated with fish rapidly returning upstream after their initial downstream movement. Continuous diel monitoring indicated that movements greater than 0.1 km/h were more frequent at night than during the day. In both years, American shad were not uniformly distributed over the study area but were predominantly grouped just below the dam and in a relatively large pool approximately 6 km below the dam. We estimated the population size of American shad that reached the New Savannah Bluff Lock and Dam at 157,685 in 2001 and 217,077 in 2002.

  6. Genetic factors associated with population size may increase extinction risks and decrease colonization potential in a keystone tropical pine

    PubMed Central

    del Castillo, Rafael F; Trujillo-Argueta, Sonia; Sánchez-Vargas, Nahúm; Newton, Adrian C

    2011-01-01

    Pioneer species are essential for forest regeneration and ecosystem resilience. Pinus chiapensis is an endangered pioneer key species for tropical montane cloud forest regeneration in Mesoamerica. Human activities have severely reduced some P. chiapensis populations, which exhibited a small or null colonization potential suggesting the involvement of genetic factors associated with small populations. We explored the relationships between (i) population genetic diversity (allozymes) and population size, including sampling size effects, (ii) fitness estimates associated with colonization potential (seed viability and seedling performance) in a common environment and population size, and (iii) fitness estimates and observed heterozygosity in populations with sizes spanning five orders of magnitude. All the estimates of genetic diversity and fitness increased significantly with population size. Low fitness was detected in progenies of small populations of disturbed and undisturbed habitats. Progenies with the lowest observed heterozygosity displayed the lowest fitness estimates, which, in turn, increased with heterozygosity, but seed viability peaked at intermediate heterozygosity values suggesting inbreeding and outbreeding depression. Inbreeding depression appears to be the most immediate genetic factor in population decline. Conservation efforts should try to maintain large and genetically diverse populations, enhance gene flow by restoring connectivity between adjacent populations, and avoid genetically distant individuals. PMID:25568006

  7. Effect of reaction-step-size noise on the switching dynamics of stochastic populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Be'er, Shay; Heller-Algazi, Metar; Assaf, Michael

    2016-05-01

    In genetic circuits, when the messenger RNA lifetime is short compared to the cell cycle, proteins are produced in geometrically distributed bursts, which greatly affects the cellular switching dynamics between different metastable phenotypic states. Motivated by this scenario, we study a general problem of switching or escape in stochastic populations, where influx of particles occurs in groups or bursts, sampled from an arbitrary distribution. The fact that the step size of the influx reaction is a priori unknown and, in general, may fluctuate in time with a given correlation time and statistics, introduces an additional nondemographic reaction-step-size noise into the system. Employing the probability-generating function technique in conjunction with Hamiltonian formulation, we are able to map the problem in the leading order onto solving a stationary Hamilton-Jacobi equation. We show that compared to the "usual case" of single-step influx, bursty influx exponentially decreases the population's mean escape time from its long-lived metastable state. In particular, close to bifurcation we find a simple analytical expression for the mean escape time which solely depends on the mean and variance of the burst-size distribution. Our results are demonstrated on several realistic distributions and compare well with numerical Monte Carlo simulations.

  8. Effect of reaction-step-size noise on the switching dynamics of stochastic populations.

    PubMed

    Be'er, Shay; Heller-Algazi, Metar; Assaf, Michael

    2016-05-01

    In genetic circuits, when the messenger RNA lifetime is short compared to the cell cycle, proteins are produced in geometrically distributed bursts, which greatly affects the cellular switching dynamics between different metastable phenotypic states. Motivated by this scenario, we study a general problem of switching or escape in stochastic populations, where influx of particles occurs in groups or bursts, sampled from an arbitrary distribution. The fact that the step size of the influx reaction is a priori unknown and, in general, may fluctuate in time with a given correlation time and statistics, introduces an additional nondemographic reaction-step-size noise into the system. Employing the probability-generating function technique in conjunction with Hamiltonian formulation, we are able to map the problem in the leading order onto solving a stationary Hamilton-Jacobi equation. We show that compared to the "usual case" of single-step influx, bursty influx exponentially decreases the population's mean escape time from its long-lived metastable state. In particular, close to bifurcation we find a simple analytical expression for the mean escape time which solely depends on the mean and variance of the burst-size distribution. Our results are demonstrated on several realistic distributions and compare well with numerical Monte Carlo simulations. PMID:27300840

  9. Public Opinion Polls, Chicken Soup and Sample Size

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nguyen, Phung

    2005-01-01

    Cooking and tasting chicken soup in three different pots of very different size serves to demonstrate that it is the absolute sample size that matters the most in determining the accuracy of the findings of the poll, not the relative sample size, i.e. the size of the sample in relation to its population.

  10. Effect of population size on the estimation of QTL: a test using resistance to barley stripe rust.

    PubMed

    Vales, M I; Schön, C C; Capettini, F; Chen, X M; Corey, A E; Mather, D E; Mundt, C C; Richardson, K L; Sandoval-Islas, J S; Utz, H F; Hayes, P M

    2005-11-01

    The limited population sizes used in many quantitative trait locus (QTL) detection experiments can lead to underestimation of QTL number, overestimation of QTL effects, and failure to quantify QTL interactions. We used the barley/barley stripe rust pathosystem to evaluate the effect of population size on the estimation of QTL parameters. We generated a large (n = 409) population of doubled haploid lines derived from the cross of two inbred lines, BCD47 and Baronesse. This population was evaluated for barley stripe rust severity in the Toluca Valley, Mexico, and in Washington State, USA, under field conditions. BCD47 was the principal donor of resistance QTL alleles, but the susceptible parent also contributed some resistance alleles. The major QTL, located on the long arm of chromosome 4H, close to the Mlo gene, accounted for up to 34% of the phenotypic variance. Subpopulations of different sizes were generated using three methods-resampling, selective genotyping, and selective phenotyping-to evaluate the effect of population size on the estimation of QTL parameters. In all cases, the number of QTL detected increased with population size. QTL with large effects were detected even in small populations, but QTL with small effects were detected only by increasing population size. Selective genotyping and/or selective phenotyping approaches could be effective strategies for reducing the costs associated with conducting QTL analysis in large populations. The method of choice will depend on the relative costs of genotyping versus phenotyping.

  11. Long Term Population, City Size and Climate Trends in the Fertile Crescent: A First Approximation.

    PubMed

    Lawrence, Dan; Philip, Graham; Hunt, Hannah; Snape-Kennedy, Lisa; Wilkinson, T J

    2016-01-01

    Over the last 8000 years the Fertile Crescent of the Near East has seen the emergence of urban agglomerations, small scale polities and large territorial empires, all of which had profound effects on settlement patterns. Computational approaches, including the use of remote sensing data, allow us to analyse these changes at unprecedented geographical and temporal scales. Here we employ these techniques to examine and compare long term trends in urbanisation, population and climate records. Maximum city size is used as a proxy for the intensity of urbanisation, whilst population trends are modelled from settlement densities in nine archaeological surveys conducted over the last 30 years across the region. These two measures are then compared with atmospheric moisture levels derived from multiple proxy analyses from two locations close to the study area, Soreq Cave in Israel and Lake Van in south-eastern Turkey, as well as wider literature. The earliest urban sites emerged during a period of relatively high atmospheric moisture levels and conform to a series of size thresholds. However, after the Early Bronze Age maximum urban size and population levels increase rapidly whilst atmospheric moisture declines. We argue that although the initial phase of urbanization may have been linked to climate conditions, we can see a definitive decoupling of climate and settlement patterns after 2000 BC. We relate this phenomenon to changes in socio-economic organisation and integration in large territorial empires. The complex relationships sustaining urban growth during this later period resulted in an increase in system fragility and ultimately impacted on the sustainability of cities in the long term.

  12. Physiological, Behavioral and Maternal Factors That Contribute to Size Variation in Larval Amphibian Populations

    PubMed Central

    Warne, Robin W.; Kardon, Adam; Crespi, Erica J.

    2013-01-01

    Size variance among similarly aged individuals within populations is a pattern common to many organisms that is a result of interactions between intrinsic and extrinsic traits of individuals. While genetic and maternal effects, as well as physiological and behavioral traits have been shown to contribute to size variation in animal populations, teasing apart the influence of such factors on individual growth rates remain a challenge. Furthermore, tracing the effects of these interactions across life stages and in shaping adult phenotypes also requires further exploration. In this study we investigated the relationship between genetics, hatching patterns, behaviors, neuroendocrine stress axis activity and variance in growth and metamorphosis among same-aged larval amphibians. Through parallel experiments we found that in the absence of conspecific interactions, hatch time and to a lesser extent egg clutch identity (i.e. genetics and maternal effects) influenced the propensity for growth and development in individual tadpoles and determined metamorphic traits. Within experimental groups we found that variance in growth rates was associated with size-dependent foraging behaviors and responses to food restriction. We also found an inverse relationship between glucocorticoid (GC) hormone levels and body mass and developmental stage among group-reared tadpoles, which suggests that GC expression plays a role in regulating differing within-population growth trajectories in response to density-dependent conditions. Taken together these findings suggest that factors that influence hatching conditions can have long-term effects on growth and development. These results also raise compelling questions regarding the extent to which maternal and genetic factors influence physiological and behavioral profiles in amphibians. PMID:24143188

  13. Effective population size, extended linkage disequilibrium and signatures of selection in the rare dog breed lundehund.

    PubMed

    Pfahler, Sophia; Distl, Ottmar

    2015-01-01

    The Lundehund is an old dog breed with remarkable anatomical features including polydactyly in all four limbs and extraordinary flexibility of the spine. We genotyped 28 Lundehund using the canine Illumina high density beadchip to estimate the effective population size (Ne) and inbreeding coefficients as well as to identify potential regions of positive selection. The decay of linkage disequilibrium was slow with r2 = 0.95 in 50 kb distance. The last 7-200 generations ago, Ne was at 10-13. An increase of Ne was noted in the very recent generations with a peak value of 19 for Ne at generation 4. The FROH estimated for 50-, 65- and 358-SNP windows were 0.87, 087 and 0.81, respectively. The most likely estimates for FROH after removing identical-by-state segments due to linkage disequilibria were at 0.80-0.81. The extreme loss of heterozygosity has been accumulated through continued inbreeding over 200 generations within a probably closed population with a small effective population size. The mean inbreeding coefficient based on pedigree data for the last 11 generations (FPed = 0.10) was strongly biased downwards due to the unknown coancestry of the founders in this pedigree data. The long-range haplotype test identified regions with genes involved in processes of immunity, olfaction, woundhealing and neuronal development as potential targets of selection. The genes QSOX2, BMPR1B and PRRX2 as well as MYOM1 are candidates for selection on the Lundehund characteristics small body size, increased number of digits per paw and extraordinary mobility, respectively.

  14. Identification of key aerosol populations through their size and composition resolved spectral scattering and absorption

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Costabile, F.; Barnaba, F.; Angelini, F.; Gobbi, G. P.

    2013-03-01

    Characterizing chemical and physical aerosol properties is important to understand their sources, effects, and feedback mechanisms in the atmosphere. This study proposes a scheme to classify aerosol populations based on their spectral optical properties (absorption and scattering). The scheme is obtained thanks to the outstanding set of information on particle size and composition these properties contain. The spectral variability of the aerosol single scattering albedo (dSSA), and the extinction, scattering and absorption Angstrom exponents (EAE, SAE and AAE, respectively) were observed on the basis of two-year measurements of aerosol optical properties (scattering and absorption coefficients at blue, green and red wavelengths) performed in the suburbs of Rome (Italy). Optical measurements of various aerosol types were coupled to measurements of particle number size distributions and relevant optical properties simulations (Mie theory). These latter allowed the investigation of the role of the particle size and composition in the bulk aerosol properties observed. The combination of simulations and measurements suggested a general "paradigm" built on dSSA, SAE and AAE to optically classify aerosols. The paradigm proved suitable to identify the presence of key aerosol populations, including soot, biomass burning, organics, dust and marine particles. The work highlights that (i) aerosol populations show distinctive combinations of SAE and dSSA times AAE, these variables being linked by a linear inverse relation varying with varying SSA; (ii) fine particles show EAE > 1.5, whilst EAE < 2 is found for both coarse particles and ultrafine soot-rich aerosols; (iii) fine and coarse particles both show SSA > 0.8, whilst ultrafine urban Aitken mode and soot particles show SSA < 0.8. The proposed paradigm agrees with aerosol observations performed during past major field campaigns, this indicating that relations concerning the paradigm have a general validity.

  15. Long Term Population, City Size and Climate Trends in the Fertile Crescent: A First Approximation.

    PubMed

    Lawrence, Dan; Philip, Graham; Hunt, Hannah; Snape-Kennedy, Lisa; Wilkinson, T J

    2016-01-01

    Over the last 8000 years the Fertile Crescent of the Near East has seen the emergence of urban agglomerations, small scale polities and large territorial empires, all of which had profound effects on settlement patterns. Computational approaches, including the use of remote sensing data, allow us to analyse these changes at unprecedented geographical and temporal scales. Here we employ these techniques to examine and compare long term trends in urbanisation, population and climate records. Maximum city size is used as a proxy for the intensity of urbanisation, whilst population trends are modelled from settlement densities in nine archaeological surveys conducted over the last 30 years across the region. These two measures are then compared with atmospheric moisture levels derived from multiple proxy analyses from two locations close to the study area, Soreq Cave in Israel and Lake Van in south-eastern Turkey, as well as wider literature. The earliest urban sites emerged during a period of relatively high atmospheric moisture levels and conform to a series of size thresholds. However, after the Early Bronze Age maximum urban size and population levels increase rapidly whilst atmospheric moisture declines. We argue that although the initial phase of urbanization may have been linked to climate conditions, we can see a definitive decoupling of climate and settlement patterns after 2000 BC. We relate this phenomenon to changes in socio-economic organisation and integration in large territorial empires. The complex relationships sustaining urban growth during this later period resulted in an increase in system fragility and ultimately impacted on the sustainability of cities in the long term. PMID:27018998

  16. Long Term Population, City Size and Climate Trends in the Fertile Crescent: A First Approximation

    PubMed Central

    Lawrence, Dan; Philip, Graham; Hunt, Hannah; Snape-Kennedy, Lisa; Wilkinson, T. J.

    2016-01-01

    Over the last 8000 years the Fertile Crescent of the Near East has seen the emergence of urban agglomerations, small scale polities and large territorial empires, all of which had profound effects on settlement patterns. Computational approaches, including the use of remote sensing data, allow us to analyse these changes at unprecedented geographical and temporal scales. Here we employ these techniques to examine and compare long term trends in urbanisation, population and climate records. Maximum city size is used as a proxy for the intensity of urbanisation, whilst population trends are modelled from settlement densities in nine archaeological surveys conducted over the last 30 years across the region. These two measures are then compared with atmospheric moisture levels derived from multiple proxy analyses from two locations close to the study area, Soreq Cave in Israel and Lake Van in south-eastern Turkey, as well as wider literature. The earliest urban sites emerged during a period of relatively high atmospheric moisture levels and conform to a series of size thresholds. However, after the Early Bronze Age maximum urban size and population levels increase rapidly whilst atmospheric moisture declines. We argue that although the initial phase of urbanization may have been linked to climate conditions, we can see a definitive decoupling of climate and settlement patterns after 2000 BC. We relate this phenomenon to changes in socio-economic organisation and integration in large territorial empires. The complex relationships sustaining urban growth during this later period resulted in an increase in system fragility and ultimately impacted on the sustainability of cities in the long term. PMID:27018998

  17. Effective size of a wild salmonid population is greatly reduced by hatchery supplementation.

    PubMed

    Christie, M R; Marine, M L; French, R A; Waples, R S; Blouin, M S

    2012-10-01

    Many declining and commercially important populations are supplemented with captive-born individuals that are intentionally released into the wild. These supplementation programs often create large numbers of offspring from relatively few breeding adults, which can have substantial population-level effects. We examined the genetic effects of supplementation on a wild population of steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) from the Hood River, Oregon, by matching 12 run-years of hatchery steelhead back to their broodstock parents. We show that the effective number of breeders producing the hatchery fish (broodstock parents; N(b)) was quite small (harmonic mean N(b)=25 fish per brood-year vs 373 for wild fish), and was exacerbated by a high variance in broodstock reproductive success among individuals within years. The low N(b) caused hatchery fish to have decreased allelic richness, increased average relatedness, more loci in linkage disequilibrium and substantial levels of genetic drift in comparison with their wild-born counterparts. We also documented a substantial Ryman-Laikre effect whereby the additional hatchery fish doubled the total number of adult fish on the spawning grounds each year, but cut the effective population size of the total population (wild and hatchery fish combined) by nearly two-thirds. We further demonstrate that the Ryman-Laikre effect is most severe in this population when (1) >10% of fish allowed onto spawning grounds are from hatcheries and (2) the hatchery fish have high reproductive success in the wild. These results emphasize the trade-offs that arise when supplementation programs attempt to balance disparate goals (increasing production while maintaining genetic diversity and fitness).

  18. MetaPopGen: an r package to simulate population genetics in large size metapopulations.

    PubMed

    Andrello, Marco; Manel, Stéphanie

    2015-09-01

    Population genetics simulation models are useful tools to study the effects of demography and environmental factors on genetic variation and genetic differentiation. They allow for studying species and populations with complex life histories, spatial distribution and many other complicating factors that make analytical treatment impracticable. Most simulation models are individual-based: this poses a limitation to simulation of very large populations because of the limits in computer memory and long computation times. To overcome these limitations, we propose an intermediate approach that allows modelling of very complex demographic scenarios, which would be intractable with analytical models, and removes the limitations imposed by large population size, which affect individual-based simulation models. We implement this approach in a software package for the r environment, MetaPopGen. The innovative concept of this approach with respect to the other population genetic simulators is that it focuses on genotype numbers rather than on individuals. Genotype numbers are iterated through time by using random number generators for appropriate probabilistic distributions to reproduce the stochasticity inherent to Mendelian segregation, survival, dispersal and reproduction. Features included in the model are age structure, monoecious and dioecious (or separate sexes) life cycles, mutation, dispersal and selection. The model simulates only one locus at a time. All demographic parameters can be genotype-, sex-, age-, deme- and time-dependent. MetaPopGen is therefore indicated to study large populations and very complex demographic scenarios. We illustrate the capabilities of MetaPopGen by applying it to the case of a marine fish metapopulation in the Mediterranean Sea. PMID:25585533

  19. Predictability in a highly stochastic system: final size of measles epidemics in small populations.

    PubMed

    Caudron, Q; Mahmud, A S; Metcalf, C J E; Gottfreðsson, M; Viboud, C; Cliff, A D; Grenfell, B T

    2015-01-01

    A standard assumption in the modelling of epidemic dynamics is that the population of interest is well mixed, and that no clusters of metapopulations exist. The well-known and oft-used SIR model, arguably the most important compartmental model in theoretical epidemiology, assumes that the disease being modelled is strongly immunizing, directly transmitted and has a well-defined period of infection, in addition to these population mixing assumptions. Childhood infections, such as measles, are prime examples of diseases that fit the SIR-like mechanism. These infections have been well studied for many systems with large, well-mixed populations with endemic infection. Here, we consider a setting where populations are small and isolated. The dynamics of infection are driven by stochastic extinction-recolonization events, producing large, sudden and short-lived epidemics before rapidly dying out from a lack of susceptible hosts. Using a TSIR model, we fit prevaccination measles incidence and demographic data in Bornholm, the Faroe Islands and four districts of Iceland, between 1901 and 1965. The datasets for each of these countries suffer from different levels of data heterogeneity and sparsity. We explore the potential for prediction of this model: given historical incidence data and up-to-date demographic information, and knowing that a new epidemic has just begun, can we predict how large it will be? We show that, despite a lack of significant seasonality in the incidence of measles cases, and potentially severe heterogeneity at the population level, we are able to estimate the size of upcoming epidemics, conditioned on the first time step, to within reasonable confidence. Our results have potential implications for possible control measures for the early stages of new epidemics in small populations.

  20. Equilibrium Strategy and Population-Size Effects in Lowest Unique Bid Auctions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pigolotti, Simone; Bernhardsson, Sebastian; Juul, Jeppe; Galster, Gorm; Vivo, Pierpaolo

    2012-02-01

    In lowest unique bid auctions, N players bid for an item. The winner is whoever places the lowest bid, provided that it is also unique. We use a grand canonical approach to derive an analytical expression for the equilibrium distribution of strategies. We then study the properties of the solution as a function of the mean number of players, and compare them with a large data set of internet auctions. The theory agrees with the data with striking accuracy for small population-size N, while for larger N a qualitatively different distribution is observed. We interpret this result as the emergence of two different regimes, one in which adaptation is feasible and one in which it is not. Our results question the actual possibility of a large population to adapt and find the optimal strategy when participating in a collective game.

  1. A Population of planetary systems characterized by short-period, Earth-sized planets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steffen, Jason H.; Coughlin, Jeffrey L.

    2016-10-01

    We analyze data from the Quarter 1–17 Data Release 24 (Q1–Q17 DR24) planet candidate catalog from NASA’s Kepler mission, specifically comparing systems with single transiting planets to systems with multiple transiting planets, and identify a population of exoplanets with a necessarily distinct system architecture. Such an architecture likely indicates a different branch in their evolutionary past relative to the typical Kepler system. The key feature of these planetary systems is an isolated, Earth-sized planet with a roughly 1-d orbital period. We estimate that at least 24 of the 144 systems we examined (≳17%) are members of this population. Accounting for detection efficiency, such planetary systems occur with a frequency similar to the hot Jupiters.

  2. Finite difference approximations for measure-valued solutions of a hierarchically size-structured population model.

    PubMed

    Ackleh, Azmy S; Chellamuthu, Vinodh K; Ito, Kazufumi

    2015-04-01

    We study a quasilinear hierarchically size-structured population model presented in [4]. In this model the growth, mortality and reproduction rates are assumed to depend on a function of the population density. In [4] we showed that solutions to this model can become singular (measure-valued) in finite time even if all the individual parameters are smooth. Therefore, in this paper we develop a first order finite difference scheme to compute these measure-valued solutions. Convergence analysis for this method is provided. We also develop a high resolution second order scheme to compute the measure-valued solution of the model and perform a comparative study between the two schemes. PMID:25811433

  3. Energy-efficient population coding constrains network size of a neuronal array system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Lianchun; Zhang, Chi; Liu, Liwei; Yu, Yuguo

    2016-01-01

    We consider the open issue of how the energy efficiency of the neural information transmission process, in a general neuronal array, constrains the network size, and how well this network size ensures the reliable transmission of neural information in a noisy environment. By direct mathematical analysis, we have obtained general solutions proving that there exists an optimal number of neurons in the network, where the average coding energy cost (defined as energy consumption divided by mutual information) per neuron passes through a global minimum for both subthreshold and superthreshold signals. With increases in background noise intensity, the optimal neuronal number decreases for subthreshold signals and increases for suprathreshold signals. The existence of an optimal number of neurons in an array network reveals a general rule for population coding that states that the neuronal number should be large enough to ensure reliable information transmission that is robust to the noisy environment but small enough to minimize energy cost.

  4. Amino acid substitution at the Adh locus of Drosophila is facilitated by small population size.

    PubMed Central

    Ohta, T

    1993-01-01

    The number of amino acid replacement substitutions and that of synonymous substitutions are examined by using DNA sequences of the Adh locus of Drosophila. The ratio of replacement to synonymous substitutions is higher in sequence comparisons between species than in polymorphisms within species. The ratio for the between-species comparisons is highest in the Hawaiian group and lowest in the obscura group. These observations suggest that amino acid substitutions are facilitated by small population size. The result is in accord with the nearly neutral theory of molecular evolution. PMID:8506297

  5. Adaptive Protein Evolution in Animals and the Effective Population Size Hypothesis.

    PubMed

    Galtier, Nicolas

    2016-01-01

    The rate at which genomes adapt to environmental changes and the prevalence of adaptive processes in molecular evolution are two controversial issues in current evolutionary genetics. Previous attempts to quantify the genome-wide rate of adaptation through amino-acid substitution have revealed a surprising diversity of patterns, with some species (e.g. Drosophila) experiencing a very high adaptive rate, while other (e.g. humans) are dominated by nearly-neutral processes. It has been suggested that this discrepancy reflects between-species differences in effective population size. Published studies, however, were mainly focused on model organisms, and relied on disparate data sets and methodologies, so that an overview of the prevalence of adaptive protein evolution in nature is currently lacking. Here we extend existing estimators of the amino-acid adaptive rate by explicitly modelling the effect of favourable mutations on non-synonymous polymorphism patterns, and we apply these methods to a newly-built, homogeneous data set of 44 non-model animal species pairs. Data analysis uncovers a major contribution of adaptive evolution to the amino-acid substitution process across all major metazoan phyla-with the notable exception of humans and primates. The proportion of adaptive amino-acid substitution is found to be positively correlated to species effective population size. This relationship, however, appears to be primarily driven by a decreased rate of nearly-neutral amino-acid substitution because of more efficient purifying selection in large populations. Our results reveal that adaptive processes dominate the evolution of proteins in most animal species, but do not corroborate the hypothesis that adaptive substitutions accumulate at a faster rate in large populations. Implications regarding the factors influencing the rate of adaptive evolution and positive selection detection in humans vs. other organisms are discussed. PMID:26752180

  6. Adaptive Protein Evolution in Animals and the Effective Population Size Hypothesis

    PubMed Central

    Galtier, Nicolas

    2016-01-01

    The rate at which genomes adapt to environmental changes and the prevalence of adaptive processes in molecular evolution are two controversial issues in current evolutionary genetics. Previous attempts to quantify the genome-wide rate of adaptation through amino-acid substitution have revealed a surprising diversity of patterns, with some species (e.g. Drosophila) experiencing a very high adaptive rate, while other (e.g. humans) are dominated by nearly-neutral processes. It has been suggested that this discrepancy reflects between-species differences in effective population size. Published studies, however, were mainly focused on model organisms, and relied on disparate data sets and methodologies, so that an overview of the prevalence of adaptive protein evolution in nature is currently lacking. Here we extend existing estimators of the amino-acid adaptive rate by explicitly modelling the effect of favourable mutations on non-synonymous polymorphism patterns, and we apply these methods to a newly-built, homogeneous data set of 44 non-model animal species pairs. Data analysis uncovers a major contribution of adaptive evolution to the amino-acid substitution process across all major metazoan phyla—with the notable exception of humans and primates. The proportion of adaptive amino-acid substitution is found to be positively correlated to species effective population size. This relationship, however, appears to be primarily driven by a decreased rate of nearly-neutral amino-acid substitution because of more efficient purifying selection in large populations. Our results reveal that adaptive processes dominate the evolution of proteins in most animal species, but do not corroborate the hypothesis that adaptive substitutions accumulate at a faster rate in large populations. Implications regarding the factors influencing the rate of adaptive evolution and positive selection detection in humans vs. other organisms are discussed. PMID:26752180

  7. Population size and natural history of Mariana fruit bats (Chiroptera: Pteropodidae) on Sarigan, Mariana Islands

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wiles, G.J.; Jonhson, N.C.

    2004-01-01

    Based on count results, we estimated the population of Mariana fruit bats (Pteropus mariannus Desmarest) on Sarigan, Mariana Islands, to number 150-200 bats in 1999, 185-235 bats in 2000, and about 300-400 bats in 2001. Our results, plus those of two previous surveys, indicate that bat abundance on the island probably remained relatively stable at about 125-235 animals during much of the period from 1983 to 2000, then increased suddenly in 2001, most likely due to immigration from a neighboring island. Sarigan's population differs from those of larger islands in the archipelago by usually having smaller roost sizes, typically 3-75 bats, and large numbers of solitary bats that at times comprise up to half of the population. Colonies and smaller aggregations were composed primarily of harems with multiple females, whereas a nearly equal sex ratio occurred among solitary animals. Colonies roosted in isolated coconut trees in open grasslands and in native forest stands of various sizes, but avoided dense coconut forest. An estimated 30-50% of harem and solitary females possessed young in July 1999. Bats were recorded feeding on just six species of plants, which partly reflects the island's impoverished flora. We speculate that fruit bat abundance on Sarigan is limited primarily by food availability rather than hunting losses, in contrast to some other islands in the Marianas. Our study supports the contention that populations of P. mariannus in the northern Marianas are usually sedentary, but that interisland movements of larger numbers of bats may occur rarely. ?? 2004 by University of Hawai'i Press All rights reserved.

  8. Adult Body Size, Hormone Receptor Status, and Premenopausal Breast Cancer Risk in a Multiethnic Population

    PubMed Central

    John, Esther M.; Sangaramoorthy, Meera; Phipps, Amanda I.; Koo, Jocelyn; Horn-Ross, Pamela L.

    2011-01-01

    Large body size has been associated with a reduced risk of premenopausal breast cancer in non-Hispanic white women. Data on other racial/ethnic populations are limited. The authors examined the association between premenopausal breast cancer risk and adult body size in 672 cases and 808 controls aged ≥35 years from a population-based case-control study conducted in 1995–2004 in the San Francisco Bay Area (Hispanics: 375 cases, 483 controls; African Americans: 154 cases, 160 controls; non-Hispanic whites: 143 cases, 165 controls). Multivariate adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using unconditional logistic regression. Height was associated with increased breast cancer risk (highest vs. lowest quartile: odds ratio = 1.77, 95% confidence interval: 1.23, 2.53; Ptrend < 0.01); the association did not vary by hormone receptor status or race/ethnicity. Body mass index (measured as weight (kg) divided by height (m) squared) was inversely associated with risk in all 3 racial/ethnic groups, but only for estrogen receptor– and progesterone receptor–positive tumors (body mass index ≥30 vs. <25: odds ratio = 0.42; 95% confidence interval: 0.29, 0.61). Other body size measures (current weight, body build, adult weight gain, young adult weight and body mass index, waist circumference, and waist-to-height ratio) were similarly inversely associated with risk of estrogen receptor– and progesterone receptor–positive breast cancer but not estrogen receptor– and progesterone receptor–negative disease. Despite racial/ethnic differences in body size, inverse associations were similar across the 3 racial/ethnic groups when stratified by hormone receptor status. PMID:21084558

  9. Development and Validation of the Body Size Scale for Assessing Body Weight Perception in African Populations

    PubMed Central

    Cohen, Emmanuel; Bernard, Jonathan Y.; Ponty, Amandine; Ndao, Amadou; Amougou, Norbert; Saïd-Mohamed, Rihlat; Pasquet, Patrick

    2015-01-01

    Background The social valorisation of overweight in African populations could promote high-risk eating behaviours and therefore become a risk factor of obesity. However, existing scales to assess body image are usually not accurate enough to allow comparative studies of body weight perception in different African populations. This study aimed to develop and validate the Body Size Scale (BSS) to estimate African body weight perception. Methods Anthropometric measures of 80 Cameroonians and 81 Senegalese were used to evaluate three criteria of adiposity: body mass index (BMI), overall percentage of fat, and endomorphy (fat component of the somatotype). To develop the BSS, the participants were photographed in full face and profile positions. Models were selected for their representativeness of the wide variability in adiposity with a progressive increase along the scale. Then, for the validation protocol, participants self-administered the BSS to assess self-perceived current body size (CBS), desired body size (DBS) and provide a “body self-satisfaction index.” This protocol included construct validity, test-retest reliability and convergent validity and was carried out with three independent samples of respectively 201, 103 and 1115 Cameroonians. Results The BSS comprises two sex-specific scales of photos of 9 models each, and ordered by increasing adiposity. Most participants were able to correctly order the BSS by increasing adiposity, using three different words to define body size. Test-retest reliability was consistent in estimating CBS, DBS and the “body self-satisfaction index.” The CBS was highly correlated to the objective BMI, and two different indexes assessed with the BSS were consistent with declarations obtained in interviews. Conclusion The BSS is the first scale with photos of real African models taken in both full face and profile and representing a wide and representative variability in adiposity. The validation protocol proved its

  10. Assessing the roles of population density and predation risk in the evolution of offspring size in populations of a placental fish.

    PubMed

    Schrader, Matthew; Travis, Joseph

    2012-07-01

    Population density is an ecological variable that is hypothesized to be a major agent of selection on offspring size. In high-density populations, high levels of intraspecific competition are expected to favor the production of larger offspring. In contrast, lower levels of intraspecific competition and selection for large offspring should be weaker and more easily overridden by direct selection for increased fecundity in low-density populations. Some studies have found associations between population density and offspring size consistent with this hypothesis. However, their interpretations are often clouded by a number of issues. Here, we use data from a 10-year study of nine populations of the least killifish, Heterandria formosa, to describe the associations of offspring size with habitat type, population density, and predation risk. We found that females from spring populations generally produced larger offspring than females from ponds; however, the magnitude of this difference varied among years. Across all populations, larger offspring were associated with higher densities and lower risks of predation. Interestingly, the associations between the two ecological variables (density and predation risk) and offspring size were largely independent of one another. Our results suggest that previously described genetic differences in offspring size are due to density-dependent natural selection. PMID:22957156

  11. Assessing the roles of population density and predation risk in the evolution of offspring size in populations of a placental fish

    PubMed Central

    Schrader, Matthew; Travis, Joseph

    2012-01-01

    Population density is an ecological variable that is hypothesized to be a major agent of selection on offspring size. In high-density populations, high levels of intraspecific competition are expected to favor the production of larger offspring. In contrast, lower levels of intraspecific competition and selection for large offspring should be weaker and more easily overridden by direct selection for increased fecundity in low-density populations. Some studies have found associations between population density and offspring size consistent with this hypothesis. However, their interpretations are often clouded by a number of issues. Here, we use data from a 10-year study of nine populations of the least killifish, Heterandria formosa, to describe the associations of offspring size with habitat type, population density, and predation risk. We found that females from spring populations generally produced larger offspring than females from ponds; however, the magnitude of this difference varied among years. Across all populations, larger offspring were associated with higher densities and lower risks of predation. Interestingly, the associations between the two ecological variables (density and predation risk) and offspring size were largely independent of one another. Our results suggest that previously described genetic differences in offspring size are due to density-dependent natural selection. PMID:22957156

  12. Absolute nuclear material assay

    DOEpatents

    Prasad, Manoj K.; Snyderman, Neal J.; Rowland, Mark S.

    2012-05-15

    A method of absolute nuclear material assay of an unknown source comprising counting neutrons from the unknown source and providing an absolute nuclear material assay utilizing a model to optimally compare to the measured count distributions. In one embodiment, the step of providing an absolute nuclear material assay comprises utilizing a random sampling of analytically computed fission chain distributions to generate a continuous time-evolving sequence of event-counts by spreading the fission chain distribution in time.

  13. Absolute nuclear material assay

    DOEpatents

    Prasad, Manoj K.; Snyderman, Neal J.; Rowland, Mark S.

    2010-07-13

    A method of absolute nuclear material assay of an unknown source comprising counting neutrons from the unknown source and providing an absolute nuclear material assay utilizing a model to optimally compare to the measured count distributions. In one embodiment, the step of providing an absolute nuclear material assay comprises utilizing a random sampling of analytically computed fission chain distributions to generate a continuous time-evolving sequence of event-counts by spreading the fission chain distribution in time.

  14. Whitebark pine, population density, and home-range size of grizzly bears in the greater yellowstone ecosystem.

    PubMed

    Bjornlie, Daniel D; Van Manen, Frank T; Ebinger, Michael R; Haroldson, Mark A; Thompson, Daniel J; Costello, Cecily M

    2014-01-01

    Changes in life history traits of species can be an important indicator of potential factors influencing populations. For grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), recent decline of whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis), an important fall food resource, has been paired with a slowing of population growth following two decades of robust population increase. These observations have raised questions whether resource decline or density-dependent processes may be associated with changes in population growth. Distinguishing these effects based on changes in demographic rates can be difficult. However, unlike the parallel demographic responses expected from both decreasing food availability and increasing population density, we hypothesized opposing behavioral responses of grizzly bears with regard to changes in home-range size. We used the dynamic changes in food resources and population density of grizzly bears as a natural experiment to examine hypotheses regarding these potentially competing influences on grizzly bear home-range size. We found that home-range size did not increase during the period of whitebark pine decline and was not related to proportion of whitebark pine in home ranges. However, female home-range size was negatively associated with an index of population density. Our data indicate that home-range size of grizzly bears in the GYE is not associated with availability of WBP, and, for female grizzly bears, increasing population density may constrain home-range size.

  15. Whitebark pine, population density, and home-range size of grizzly bears in the greater Yellowstone ecosystem

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Daniel D, Bjornlie; van Manen, Frank T.; Michael R, Ebinger; Haroldson, Mark A.; Daniel J, Thompson; Cecily M, Costello

    2014-01-01

    Changes in life history traits of species can be an important indicator of potential factors influencing populations. For grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), recent decline of whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis), an important fall food resource, has been paired with a slowing of population growth following two decades of robust population increase. These observations have raised questions whether resource decline or density-dependent processes may be associated with changes in population growth. Distinguishing these effects based on changes in demographic rates can be difficult. However, unlike the parallel demographic responses expected from both decreasing food availability and increasing population density, we hypothesized opposing behavioral responses of grizzly bears with regard to changes in home-range size. We used the dynamic changes in food resources and population density of grizzly bears as a natural experiment to examine hypotheses regarding these potentially competing influences on grizzly bear home-range size. We found that home-range size did not increase during the period of whitebark pine decline and was not related to proportion of whitebark pine in home ranges. However, female home-range size was negatively associated with an index of population density. Our data indicate that home-range size of grizzly bears in the GYE is not associated with availability of WBP, and, for female grizzly bears, increasing population density may constrain home-range size.

  16. Whitebark Pine, Population Density, and Home-Range Size of Grizzly Bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

    PubMed Central

    Bjornlie, Daniel D.; Van Manen, Frank T.; Ebinger, Michael R.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Thompson, Daniel J.; Costello, Cecily M.

    2014-01-01

    Changes in life history traits of species can be an important indicator of potential factors influencing populations. For grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), recent decline of whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis), an important fall food resource, has been paired with a slowing of population growth following two decades of robust population increase. These observations have raised questions whether resource decline or density-dependent processes may be associated with changes in population growth. Distinguishing these effects based on changes in demographic rates can be difficult. However, unlike the parallel demographic responses expected from both decreasing food availability and increasing population density, we hypothesized opposing behavioral responses of grizzly bears with regard to changes in home-range size. We used the dynamic changes in food resources and population density of grizzly bears as a natural experiment to examine hypotheses regarding these potentially competing influences on grizzly bear home-range size. We found that home-range size did not increase during the period of whitebark pine decline and was not related to proportion of whitebark pine in home ranges. However, female home-range size was negatively associated with an index of population density. Our data indicate that home-range size of grizzly bears in the GYE is not associated with availability of WBP, and, for female grizzly bears, increasing population density may constrain home-range size. PMID:24520354

  17. Whitebark pine, population density, and home-range size of grizzly bears in the greater yellowstone ecosystem.

    PubMed

    Bjornlie, Daniel D; Van Manen, Frank T; Ebinger, Michael R; Haroldson, Mark A; Thompson, Daniel J; Costello, Cecily M

    2014-01-01

    Changes in life history traits of species can be an important indicator of potential factors influencing populations. For grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), recent decline of whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis), an important fall food resource, has been paired with a slowing of population growth following two decades of robust population increase. These observations have raised questions whether resource decline or density-dependent processes may be associated with changes in population growth. Distinguishing these effects based on changes in demographic rates can be difficult. However, unlike the parallel demographic responses expected from both decreasing food availability and increasing population density, we hypothesized opposing behavioral responses of grizzly bears with regard to changes in home-range size. We used the dynamic changes in food resources and population density of grizzly bears as a natural experiment to examine hypotheses regarding these potentially competing influences on grizzly bear home-range size. We found that home-range size did not increase during the period of whitebark pine decline and was not related to proportion of whitebark pine in home ranges. However, female home-range size was negatively associated with an index of population density. Our data indicate that home-range size of grizzly bears in the GYE is not associated with availability of WBP, and, for female grizzly bears, increasing population density may constrain home-range size. PMID:24520354

  18. Occurrence, distribution and population size of Malassezia pachydermatis on skin and mucosae of atopic dogs.

    PubMed

    Nardoni, Simona; Dini, Monica; Taccini, Fabrizio; Mancianti, Francesca

    2007-05-16

    Aim of the present study was to determine the distribution and quantification of Malassezia yeasts on a wide number of cutaneous sites in atopic dogs by means of a semiquantitative swab technique. A possible relationship between the presence of clinical signs and the occurrence and population size of yeasts was attempted. Forty-one privately owned atopic dogs of different age and breed were sampled. Results were expressed as colony forming units per swab. Malassezia colonies obtained from each plate were counted, scored and typed. All dogs yielded Malassezia pachydermatis from at least one skin area. Yeast population mean size by site was 6.98 (S.D.=3.47) as compared to other body areas. The frequence of isolation was higher from interdigital areas (70.7%), ears (63.4%), nail folds (35.7%), mouth (33.3%), groin (30.9%), conjunctiva and axillae (23.8%), perineum and anus (19%), perianal glands (9.5%). Ears, anus, interdigital areas, perianal glands and groin yielded the largest mycotic amount. M. pachydermatis was the sole species of yeast to colonize canine skin in examined animals. No statistical correlation between the presence of cutaneous alterations and Malassezia isolation was detected. Highest scores were not exclusively found on affected areas, but also on lesion-free sites, demonstrating that atopic animals can be heavily colonized also in apparently healthy areas. PMID:17257784

  19. Ochre star mortality during the 2014 wasting disease epizootic: role of population size structure and temperature.

    PubMed

    Eisenlord, Morgan E; Groner, Maya L; Yoshioka, Reyn M; Elliott, Joel; Maynard, Jeffrey; Fradkin, Steven; Turner, Margaret; Pyne, Katie; Rivlin, Natalie; van Hooidonk, Ruben; Harvell, C Drew

    2016-03-01

    Over 20 species of asteroids were devastated by a sea star wasting disease (SSWD) epizootic, linked to a densovirus, from Mexico to Alaska in 2013 and 2014. For Pisaster ochraceus from the San Juan Islands, South Puget Sound and Washington outer coast, time-series monitoring showed rapid disease spread, high mortality rates in 2014, and continuing levels of wasting in the survivors in 2015. Peak prevalence of disease at 16 sites ranged to 100%, with an overall mean of 61%. Analysis of longitudinal data showed disease risk was correlated with both size and temperature and resulted in shifts in population size structure; adult populations fell to one quarter of pre-outbreak abundances. In laboratory experiments, time between development of disease signs and death was influenced by temperature in adults but not juveniles and adult mortality was 18% higher in the 19 °C treatment compared to the lower temperature treatments. While larger ochre stars developed disease signs sooner than juveniles, diseased juveniles died more quickly than diseased adults. Unusual 2-3 °C warm temperature anomalies were coincident with the summer 2014 mortalities. We suggest these warm waters could have increased the disease progression and mortality rates of SSWD in Washington State. PMID:26880844

  20. Ochre star mortality during the 2014 wasting disease epizootic: role of population size structure and temperature

    PubMed Central

    Eisenlord, Morgan E.; Yoshioka, Reyn M.; Elliott, Joel; Maynard, Jeffrey; Fradkin, Steven; Turner, Margaret; Pyne, Katie; Rivlin, Natalie; van Hooidonk, Ruben; Harvell, C. Drew

    2016-01-01

    Over 20 species of asteroids were devastated by a sea star wasting disease (SSWD) epizootic, linked to a densovirus, from Mexico to Alaska in 2013 and 2014. For Pisaster ochraceus from the San Juan Islands, South Puget Sound and Washington outer coast, time-series monitoring showed rapid disease spread, high mortality rates in 2014, and continuing levels of wasting in the survivors in 2015. Peak prevalence of disease at 16 sites ranged to 100%, with an overall mean of 61%. Analysis of longitudinal data showed disease risk was correlated with both size and temperature and resulted in shifts in population size structure; adult populations fell to one quarter of pre-outbreak abundances. In laboratory experiments, time between development of disease signs and death was influenced by temperature in adults but not juveniles and adult mortality was 18% higher in the 19°C treatment compared to the lower temperature treatments. While larger ochre stars developed disease signs sooner than juveniles, diseased juveniles died more quickly than diseased adults. Unusual 2–3°C warm temperature anomalies were coincident with the summer 2014 mortalities. We suggest these warm waters could have increased the disease progression and mortality rates of SSWD in Washington State. PMID:26880844

  1. Family reintegration of children and adolescents in foster care in Brazilian municipalities with different population sizes.

    PubMed

    Iannelli, Andrea M; Assis, Simone Gonçalves; Pinto, Liana Wernersbach; Pinto, Liana Wenersbach

    2015-01-01

    The scope of this article is to present and analyze data from Brazilian foster care services for children / adolescents from the perspective of family reintegration. It also seeks to support the implementation of public policies in order to provide effective reintegration in accordance with the differing local contexts. It uses data from 1,157 municipalities that have foster care services. The methodology takes into account the data collection of 2,624 Brazilian centers and 36,929 children and adolescents in care. The growing number of children/adolescents in care is in line with the increase in population size: 8.4 per small city; 60 per large city and 602.4 per metropolis. With respect to care residence in a different municipality there are varying indices: 12.4% in metropolises and 33.6% in small cities, revealing the absence of centers close to family units in the smaller communities. Regarding the activities promoted together with families, it was seen that there are still units that do not perform any activities, which runs contrary to Brazilian law. It is clear that policies for the child/adolescent in foster care centers need to consider the capacity of the municipality in accordance with population size to implement support actions for families to assist in family reintegration. PMID:25650596

  2. Quasi equilibrium, variance effective size and fixation index for populations with substructure.

    PubMed

    Hössjer, Ola; Ryman, Nils

    2014-11-01

    In this paper, we develop a method for computing the variance effective size N eV, the fixation index F ST and the coefficient of gene differentiation G ST of a structured population under equilibrium conditions. The subpopulation sizes are constant in time, with migration and reproduction schemes that can be chosen with great flexibility. Our quasi equilibrium approach is conditional on non-fixation of alleles. This is of relevance when migration rates are of a larger order of magnitude than the mutation rates, so that new mutations can be ignored before equilibrium balance between genetic drift and migration is obtained. The vector valued time series of subpopulation allele frequencies is divided into two parts; one corresponding to genetic drift of the whole population and one corresponding to differences in allele frequencies among subpopulations. We give conditions under which the first two moments of the latter, after a simple standardization, are well approximated by quantities that can be explicitly calculated. This enables us to compute approximations of the quasi equilibrium values of N eV, F ST and G ST. Our findings are illustrated for several reproduction and migration scenarios, including the island model, stepping stone models and a model where one subpopulation acts as a demographic reservoir. We also make detailed comparisons with a backward approach based on coalescence probabilities.

  3. Effects of habitat fragmentation, population size and demographic history on genetic diversity: the Cross River gorilla in a comparative context.

    PubMed

    Bergl, Richard A; Bradley, Brenda J; Nsubuga, Anthony; Vigilant, Linda

    2008-09-01

    In small and fragmented populations, genetic diversity may be reduced owing to increased levels of drift and inbreeding. This reduced diversity is often associated with decreased fitness and a higher threat of extinction. However, it is difficult to determine when a population has low diversity except in a comparative context. We assessed genetic variability in the critically endangered Cross River gorilla (Gorilla gorilla diehli), a small and fragmented population, using 11 autosomal microsatellite loci. We show that levels of diversity in the Cross River population are not evenly distributed across the three genetically identified subpopulations, and that one centrally located subpopulation has higher levels of variability than the others. All measures of genetic variability in the Cross River population were comparable to those of the similarly small mountain gorilla (G. beringei beringei) populations (Bwindi and Virunga). However, for some measures both the Cross River and mountain gorilla populations show lower levels of diversity than a sample from a large, continuous western gorilla population (Mondika, G. gorilla gorilla). Finally, we tested for the genetic signature of a bottleneck in each of the four populations. Only Cross River showed strong evidence of a reduction in population size, suggesting that the reduction in size of this population was more recent or abrupt than in the two mountain gorilla populations. These results emphasize the need for maintaining connectivity in fragmented populations and highlight the importance of allowing small populations to expand. PMID:18521886

  4. Z chromosome divergence, polymorphism and relative effective population size in a genus of lekking birds.

    PubMed

    Oyler-McCance, S J; Cornman, R S; Jones, K L; Fike, J A

    2015-11-01

    Sex chromosomes contribute disproportionately to species boundaries as they diverge faster than autosomes and often have reduced diversity. Their hemizygous nature contributes to faster divergence and reduced diversity, as do some types of selection. In birds, other factors (mating system and bottlenecks) can further decrease the effective population size of Z-linked loci and accelerate divergence (Fast-Z). We assessed Z-linked divergence and effective population sizes for two polygynous sage-grouse species and compared them to estimates from birds with various mating systems. We found lower diversity and higher FST for Z-linked loci than for autosomes, as expected. The π(Z)/π(A) ratio was 0.38 in Centrocercus minimus, 0.48 in Centrocercus urophasianus and 0.59 in a diverged, parapatric population of C. urophasianus, a broad range given the mating system among these groups is presumably equivalent. The full data set had unequal males and females across groups, so we compared an equally balanced reduced set of C. minimus and individuals pooled from both C. urophasianus subgroups recovering similar estimates: 0.54 for C. urophasianus and 0.38 for C. minimus. We provide further evidence that N(eZ)/N(eA) in birds is often lower than expected under random mating or monogamy. The lower ratio in C. minimus could be a consequence of stronger selection or drift acting on Z loci during speciation, as this species differs strongly from C. urophasianus in sexually selected characters with minimal mitochondrial divergence. As C. minimus also exhibited lower genomic diversity, it is possible that a more severe demographic history may contribute to its lower ratio. PMID:26014526

  5. Z chromosome divergence, polymorphism and relative effective population size in a genus of lekking birds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Oyler-McCance, Sara J.; Cornman, Robert S.; Kenneth L. Jones,; Fike, Jennifer

    2015-01-01

    Sex chromosomes contribute disproportionately to species boundaries as they diverge faster than autosomes and often have reduced diversity. Their hemizygous nature contributes to faster divergence and reduced diversity, as do some types of selection. In birds, other factors (mating system and bottlenecks) can further decrease the effective population size of Z-linked loci and accelerate divergence (Fast-Z). We assessed Z-linked divergence and effective population sizes for two polygynous sage-grouse species and compared them to estimates from birds with various mating systems. We found lower diversity and higher FST for Z-linked loci than for autosomes, as expected. The πZ/πA ratio was 0.38 in Centrocercus minimus, 0.48 in Centrocercus urophasianus and 0.59 in a diverged, parapatric population of C. urophasianus, a broad range given the mating system among these groups is presumably equivalent. The full data set had unequal males and females across groups, so we compared an equally balanced reduced set of C. minimus and individuals pooled from both C. urophasianus subgroups recovering similar estimates: 0.54 for C. urophasianus and 0.38 for C. minimus. We provide further evidence that NeZ/NeA in birds is often lower than expected under random mating or monogamy. The lower ratio in C. minimus could be a consequence of stronger selection or drift acting on Z loci during speciation, as this species differs strongly from C. urophasianus in sexually selected characters with minimal mitochondrial divergence. As C. minimus also exhibited lower genomic diversity, it is possible that a more severe demographic history may contribute to its lower ratio.

  6. Z chromosome divergence, polymorphism and relative effective population size in a genus of lekking birds.

    PubMed

    Oyler-McCance, S J; Cornman, R S; Jones, K L; Fike, J A

    2015-11-01

    Sex chromosomes contribute disproportionately to species boundaries as they diverge faster than autosomes and often have reduced diversity. Their hemizygous nature contributes to faster divergence and reduced diversity, as do some types of selection. In birds, other factors (mating system and bottlenecks) can further decrease the effective population size of Z-linked loci and accelerate divergence (Fast-Z). We assessed Z-linked divergence and effective population sizes for two polygynous sage-grouse species and compared them to estimates from birds with various mating systems. We found lower diversity and higher FST for Z-linked loci than for autosomes, as expected. The π(Z)/π(A) ratio was 0.38 in Centrocercus minimus, 0.48 in Centrocercus urophasianus and 0.59 in a diverged, parapatric population of C. urophasianus, a broad range given the mating system among these groups is presumably equivalent. The full data set had unequal males and females across groups, so we compared an equally balanced reduced set of C. minimus and individuals pooled from both C. urophasianus subgroups recovering similar estimates: 0.54 for C. urophasianus and 0.38 for C. minimus. We provide further evidence that N(eZ)/N(eA) in birds is often lower than expected under random mating or monogamy. The lower ratio in C. minimus could be a consequence of stronger selection or drift acting on Z loci during speciation, as this species differs strongly from C. urophasianus in sexually selected characters with minimal mitochondrial divergence. As C. minimus also exhibited lower genomic diversity, it is possible that a more severe demographic history may contribute to its lower ratio.

  7. State-space modeling of population sizes and trends in Nihoa Finch and Millerbird

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gorresen, P. Marcos; Brinck, Kevin W.; Camp, Richard J.; Farmer, Chris; Plentovich, Sheldon M.; Banko, Paul C.

    2016-01-01

    Both of the 2 passerines endemic to Nihoa Island, Hawai‘i, USA—the Nihoa Millerbird (Acrocephalus familiaris kingi) and Nihoa Finch (Telespiza ultima)—are listed as endangered by federal and state agencies. Their abundances have been estimated by irregularly implemented fixed-width strip-transect sampling from 1967 to 2012, from which area-based extrapolation of the raw counts produced highly variable abundance estimates for both species. To evaluate an alternative survey method and improve abundance estimates, we conducted variable-distance point-transect sampling between 2010 and 2014. We compared our results to those obtained from strip-transect samples. In addition, we applied state-space models to derive improved estimates of population size and trends from the legacy time series of strip-transect counts. Both species were fairly evenly distributed across Nihoa and occurred in all or nearly all available habitat. Population trends for Nihoa Millerbird were inconclusive because of high within-year variance. Trends for Nihoa Finch were positive, particularly since the early 1990s. Distance-based analysis of point-transect counts produced mean estimates of abundance similar to those from strip-transects but was generally more precise. However, both survey methods produced biologically unrealistic variability between years. State-space modeling of the long-term time series of abundances obtained from strip-transect counts effectively reduced uncertainty in both within- and between-year estimates of population size, and allowed short-term changes in abundance trajectories to be smoothed into a long-term trend.

  8. Targeted agri-environment schemes significantly improve the population size of common farmland bumblebee species.

    PubMed

    Wood, Thomas J; Holland, John M; Hughes, William O H; Goulson, Dave

    2015-04-01

    Changes in agricultural practice across Europe and North America have been associated with range contractions and local extinction of bumblebees (Bombus spp.). A number of agri-environment schemes have been implemented to halt and reverse these declines, predominantly revolving around the provision of additional forage plants. Although it has been demonstrated that these schemes can attract substantial numbers of foraging bumblebees, it remains unclear to what extent they actually increase bumblebee populations. We used standardized transect walks and molecular techniques to compare the size of bumblebee populations between Higher Level Stewardship (HLS) farms implementing pollinator-friendly schemes and Entry Level Stewardship (ELS) control farms. Bumblebee abundance on the transect walks was significantly higher on HLS farms than ELS farms. Molecular analysis suggested maximum foraging ranges of 566 m for Bombus hortorum, 714 m for B. lapidarius, 363 m for B. pascuorum and 799 m for B. terrestris. Substantial differences in maximum foraging range were found within bumblebee species between farm types. Accounting for foraging range differences, B. hortorum (47 vs 13 nests/km(2) ) and B. lapidarius (45 vs 22 nests/km(2) ) were found to nest at significantly greater densities on HLS farms than ELS farms. There were no significant differences between farm type for B. terrestris (88 vs 38 nests/km(2) ) and B. pascuorum (32 vs 39 nests/km(2) ). Across all bumblebee species, HLS management had a significantly positive effect on bumblebee nest density. These results show that targeted agri-environment schemes that increase the availability of suitable forage can significantly increase the size of wild bumblebee populations.

  9. Targeted agri-environment schemes significantly improve the population size of common farmland bumblebee species.

    PubMed

    Wood, Thomas J; Holland, John M; Hughes, William O H; Goulson, Dave

    2015-04-01

    Changes in agricultural practice across Europe and North America have been associated with range contractions and local extinction of bumblebees (Bombus spp.). A number of agri-environment schemes have been implemented to halt and reverse these declines, predominantly revolving around the provision of additional forage plants. Although it has been demonstrated that these schemes can attract substantial numbers of foraging bumblebees, it remains unclear to what extent they actually increase bumblebee populations. We used standardized transect walks and molecular techniques to compare the size of bumblebee populations between Higher Level Stewardship (HLS) farms implementing pollinator-friendly schemes and Entry Level Stewardship (ELS) control farms. Bumblebee abundance on the transect walks was significantly higher on HLS farms than ELS farms. Molecular analysis suggested maximum foraging ranges of 566 m for Bombus hortorum, 714 m for B. lapidarius, 363 m for B. pascuorum and 799 m for B. terrestris. Substantial differences in maximum foraging range were found within bumblebee species between farm types. Accounting for foraging range differences, B. hortorum (47 vs 13 nests/km(2) ) and B. lapidarius (45 vs 22 nests/km(2) ) were found to nest at significantly greater densities on HLS farms than ELS farms. There were no significant differences between farm type for B. terrestris (88 vs 38 nests/km(2) ) and B. pascuorum (32 vs 39 nests/km(2) ). Across all bumblebee species, HLS management had a significantly positive effect on bumblebee nest density. These results show that targeted agri-environment schemes that increase the availability of suitable forage can significantly increase the size of wild bumblebee populations. PMID:25753513

  10. The Hawkesbury-Nepean region: has the optimum population size been exceeded?

    PubMed

    Jones, A; Pearson, B

    1995-01-01

    The Australian Federal Government has not included population size as an intersectoral component of the environmentally sustainable development process. The aim of this article is to show how water quality is a key indicator of environmental degradation and of declines in the quality of life. This study is an analysis of the environmental impacts of population on the Hawkesbury-Nepean River System and of the costs involved in change. Environmental degradation is viewed as the result of population size, per capita consumption, the quality of technology, and the organization of space and technology. The quantity and quality of freshwater systems are considered to be useful indicators of environmental degradation over large spatial areas because the impacts are associated with both land and water environments. The catchment area of this river system covers about 231,730 sq. km (68% bushland, 5% urban, 25% agricultural, and 0.1% industrial). About 45% of the land area is protected due to six dams, which provide 98% of water used in Sydney, Illawarra, and the Blue Mountains. Estimated population usage is 600,000-700,000 people. River flows are modified by dams, sewage discharges, water abstractions, and urban run-off from development. River use includes tourism, fishing, and recreation. The system suffers from severe eutrophication, bacterial contamination, toxic pollution, and hypoxia. The conclusion was reached after many years of concern that large-scale development should be deferred. However, housing plans continue for a 70% population increase by 2008. Sewage treatment improvements are costly. Alternatives are re-use of effluents ($2.5-3.5 billion for nonpotable use and $4-4.5 billion for potable use), diversion to the ocean ($3 billion), zero river discharge ($8400 per property for installation and $700 per annum maintenance), or inland disposal ($19 billion). Environmental protection efforts are also costly: $45 million worth of water for flushing away an algal

  11. Single-gene speciation with pleiotropy: effects of allele dominance, population size, and delayed inheritance.

    PubMed

    Yamamichi, Masato; Sasaki, Akira

    2013-07-01

    Single-gene speciation is considered to be unlikely, but an excellent example is found in land snails, in which a gene for left-right reversal has given rise to new species multiple times. This reversal might be facilitated by their small population sizes and maternal effect (i.e., "delayed inheritance," in which an individual's phenotype is determined by the genotype of its mother). Recent evidence suggests that a pleiotropic effect of the speciation gene on antipredator survival may also promote speciation. Here we theoretically demonstrate that, without a pleiotropic effect, in small populations the fixation probability of a recessive mutant is higher than a dominant mutant, but they are identical for large populations and sufficiently weak selection. With a pleiotropic effect that increases mutant viability, a dominant mutant has a higher fixation probability if the strength of viability selection is sufficiently greater than that of reproductive incompatibility, whereas a recessive mutant has a higher fixation probability otherwise. Delayed inheritance increases the fixation probability of a mutant if viability selection is sufficiently weaker than reproductive incompatibility. Our results clarify the conflicting effects of viability selection and positive frequency-dependent selection due to reproductive incompatibility and provide a new perspective to single-gene speciation theory. PMID:23815656

  12. Sub-sampling genetic data to estimate black bear population size: A case study

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Tredick, C.A.; Vaughan, M.R.; Stauffer, D.F.; Simek, S.L.; Eason, T.

    2007-01-01

    Costs for genetic analysis of hair samples collected for individual identification of bears average approximately US$50 [2004] per sample. This can easily exceed budgetary allowances for large-scale studies or studies of high-density bear populations. We used 2 genetic datasets from 2 areas in the southeastern United States to explore how reducing costs of analysis by sub-sampling affected precision and accuracy of resulting population estimates. We used several sub-sampling scenarios to create subsets of the full datasets and compared summary statistics, population estimates, and precision of estimates generated from these subsets to estimates generated from the complete datasets. Our results suggested that bias and precision of estimates improved as the proportion of total samples used increased, and heterogeneity models (e.g., Mh[CHAO]) were more robust to reduced sample sizes than other models (e.g., behavior models). We recommend that only high-quality samples (>5 hair follicles) be used when budgets are constrained, and efforts should be made to maximize capture and recapture rates in the field.

  13. Drought survival is a threshold function of habitat size and population density in a fish metapopulation.

    PubMed

    White, Richard S A; McHugh, Peter A; McIntosh, Angus R

    2016-10-01

    Because smaller habitats dry more frequently and severely during droughts, habitat size is likely a key driver of survival in populations during climate change and associated increased extreme drought frequency. Here, we show that survival in populations during droughts is a threshold function of habitat size driven by an interaction with population density in metapopulations of the forest pool dwelling fish, Neochanna apoda. A mark-recapture study involving 830 N. apoda individuals during a one-in-seventy-year extreme drought revealed that survival during droughts was high for populations occupying pools deeper than 139 mm, but declined steeply in shallower pools. This threshold was caused by an interaction between increasing population density and drought magnitude associated with decreasing habitat size, which acted synergistically to increase physiological stress and mortality. This confirmed two long-held hypotheses, firstly concerning the interactive role of population density and physiological stress, herein driven by habitat size, and secondly, the occurrence of drought survival thresholds. Our results demonstrate how survival in populations during droughts will depend strongly on habitat size and highlight that minimum habitat size thresholds will likely be required to maximize survival as the frequency and intensity of droughts are projected to increase as a result of global climate change. PMID:26929393

  14. Drought survival is a threshold function of habitat size and population density in a fish metapopulation.

    PubMed

    White, Richard S A; McHugh, Peter A; McIntosh, Angus R

    2016-10-01

    Because smaller habitats dry more frequently and severely during droughts, habitat size is likely a key driver of survival in populations during climate change and associated increased extreme drought frequency. Here, we show that survival in populations during droughts is a threshold function of habitat size driven by an interaction with population density in metapopulations of the forest pool dwelling fish, Neochanna apoda. A mark-recapture study involving 830 N. apoda individuals during a one-in-seventy-year extreme drought revealed that survival during droughts was high for populations occupying pools deeper than 139 mm, but declined steeply in shallower pools. This threshold was caused by an interaction between increasing population density and drought magnitude associated with decreasing habitat size, which acted synergistically to increase physiological stress and mortality. This confirmed two long-held hypotheses, firstly concerning the interactive role of population density and physiological stress, herein driven by habitat size, and secondly, the occurrence of drought survival thresholds. Our results demonstrate how survival in populations during droughts will depend strongly on habitat size and highlight that minimum habitat size thresholds will likely be required to maximize survival as the frequency and intensity of droughts are projected to increase as a result of global climate change.

  15. Samples from subdivided populations yield biased estimates of effective size that overestimate the rate of loss of genetic variation

    PubMed Central

    Ryman, Nils; Allendorf, Fred W; Jorde, Per Erik; Laikre, Linda; Hössjer, Ola

    2014-01-01

    Many empirical studies estimating effective population size apply the temporal method that provides an estimate of the variance effective size through the amount of temporal allele frequency change under the assumption that the study population is completely isolated. This assumption is frequently violated, and the magnitude of the resulting bias is generally unknown. We studied how gene flow affects estimates of effective size obtained by the temporal method when sampling from a population system and provide analytical expressions for the expected estimate under an island model of migration. We show that the temporal method tends to systematically underestimate both local and global effective size when populations are connected by gene flow, and the bias is sometimes dramatic. The problem is particularly likely to occur when sampling from a subdivided population where high levels of gene flow obscure identification of subpopulation boundaries. In such situations, sampling in a manner that prevents biased estimates can be difficult. This phenomenon might partially explain the frequently reported unexpectedly low effective population sizes of marine populations that have raised concern regarding the genetic vulnerability of even exceptionally large populations. PMID:24034449

  16. A comparison of single-sample estimators of effective population sizes from genetic marker data.

    PubMed

    Wang, Jinliang

    2016-10-01

    In molecular ecology and conservation genetics studies, the important parameter of effective population size (Ne ) is increasingly estimated from a single sample of individuals taken at random from a population and genotyped at a number of marker loci. Several estimators are developed, based on the information of linkage disequilibrium (LD), heterozygote excess (HE), molecular coancestry (MC) and sibship frequency (SF) in marker data. The most popular is the LD estimator, because it is more accurate than HE and MC estimators and is simpler to calculate than SF estimator. However, little is known about the accuracy of LD estimator relative to that of SF and about the robustness of all single-sample estimators when some simplifying assumptions (e.g. random mating, no linkage, no genotyping errors) are violated. This study fills the gaps and uses extensive simulations to compare the biases and accuracies of the four estimators for different population properties (e.g. bottlenecks, nonrandom mating, haplodiploid), marker properties (e.g. linkage, polymorphisms) and sample properties (e.g. numbers of individuals and markers) and to compare the robustness of the four estimators when marker data are imperfect (with allelic dropouts). Extensive simulations show that SF estimator is more accurate, has a much wider application scope (e.g. suitable to nonrandom mating such as selfing, haplodiploid species, dominant markers) and is more robust (e.g. to the presence of linkage and genotyping errors of markers) than the other estimators. An empirical data set from a Yellowstone grizzly bear population was analysed to demonstrate the use of the SF estimator in practice.

  17. A comparison of single-sample estimators of effective population sizes from genetic marker data.

    PubMed

    Wang, Jinliang

    2016-10-01

    In molecular ecology and conservation genetics studies, the important parameter of effective population size (Ne ) is increasingly estimated from a single sample of individuals taken at random from a population and genotyped at a number of marker loci. Several estimators are developed, based on the information of linkage disequilibrium (LD), heterozygote excess (HE), molecular coancestry (MC) and sibship frequency (SF) in marker data. The most popular is the LD estimator, because it is more accurate than HE and MC estimators and is simpler to calculate than SF estimator. However, little is known about the accuracy of LD estimator relative to that of SF and about the robustness of all single-sample estimators when some simplifying assumptions (e.g. random mating, no linkage, no genotyping errors) are violated. This study fills the gaps and uses extensive simulations to compare the biases and accuracies of the four estimators for different population properties (e.g. bottlenecks, nonrandom mating, haplodiploid), marker properties (e.g. linkage, polymorphisms) and sample properties (e.g. numbers of individuals and markers) and to compare the robustness of the four estimators when marker data are imperfect (with allelic dropouts). Extensive simulations show that SF estimator is more accurate, has a much wider application scope (e.g. suitable to nonrandom mating such as selfing, haplodiploid species, dominant markers) and is more robust (e.g. to the presence of linkage and genotyping errors of markers) than the other estimators. An empirical data set from a Yellowstone grizzly bear population was analysed to demonstrate the use of the SF estimator in practice. PMID:27288989

  18. Effective size and polymorphism of linked neutral loci in populations under directional selection.

    PubMed Central

    Santiago, E; Caballero, A

    1998-01-01

    The general theory of the effective size (Ne) for populations under directional selection is extended to cover linkage. Ne is a function of the association between neutral and selected genes generated by finite sampling. This association is reduced by three factors: the recombination rate, the reduction of genetic variance due to drift, and the reduction of genetic variance of the selected genes due to selection. If the genetic size of the genome (L in Morgans) is not extremely small the equation for Ne is [formula, see text] where N is the number of reproductive individuals, C 2 is the genetic variance for fitness scaled by the squared mean fitness, (1 - Z) = Vm/C2 is the rate of reduction of genetic variation per generation and Vm is the mutational input of genetic variation for fitness. The above predictive equation of Ne is valid for the infinitesimal model and for a model of detrimental mutations. The principles of the theory are also applicable to favorable mutation models if there is a continuous flux of advantageous mutations. The predictions are tested by simulation, and the connection with previous results is found and discussed. The reduction of effective size associated with a neutral mutation is progressive over generations until the asymptotic value (the above expression) is reached after a number of generations. The magnitude of the drift process is, therefore, smaller for recent neutral mutations than for old ones. This produces equilibrium values of average heterozygosity and proportion of segregating sites that cannot be formally predicted from the asymptotic Ne, but both parameters can still be predicted by following the drift along the lineage of genes. The spectrum of gene frequencies in a given generation can also be predicted by considering the overlapping of distributions corresponding to mutations that arose in different generations and with different associated effective sizes. PMID:9691062

  19. Mycorrhizal diversity, seed germination and long-term changes in population size across nine populations of the terrestrial orchid Neottia ovata.

    PubMed

    Jacquemyn, Hans; Waud, Michael; Merckx, Vincent S F T; Lievens, Bart; Brys, Rein

    2015-07-01

    In plant species that rely on mycorrhizal symbioses for germination and seedling establishment, seedling recruitment and temporal changes in abundance can be expected to depend on fungal community composition and local environmental conditions. However, disentangling the precise factors that determine recruitment success in species that critically rely on mycorrhizal fungi represents a major challenge. In this study, we used seed germination experiments, 454 amplicon pyrosequencing and assessment of soil conditions to investigate the factors driving changes in local abundance in 28 populations of the orchid Neottia ovata. Comparison of population sizes measured in 2003 and 2013 showed that nearly 60% of the studied populations had declined in size (average growth rate across all populations: -0.01). Investigation of the mycorrhizal fungi in both the roots and soil revealed a total of 68 species of putatively mycorrhizal fungi, 21 of which occurred exclusively in roots, 25 that occurred solely in soil and 22 that were observed in both the soil and roots. Seed germination was limited and significantly and positively related to soil moisture content and soil pH, but not to fungal community composition. Large populations or populations with high population growth rates showed significantly higher germination than small populations or populations declining in size, but no significant relationships were found between population size or growth and mycorrhizal diversity. Overall, these results indicate that temporal changes in abundance were related to the ability of seeds to germinate, but at the same time they provided limited evidence that variation in fungal communities played an important role in determining population dynamics.

  20. Mycorrhizal diversity, seed germination and long-term changes in population size across nine populations of the terrestrial orchid Neottia ovata.

    PubMed

    Jacquemyn, Hans; Waud, Michael; Merckx, Vincent S F T; Lievens, Bart; Brys, Rein

    2015-07-01

    In plant species that rely on mycorrhizal symbioses for germination and seedling establishment, seedling recruitment and temporal changes in abundance can be expected to depend on fungal community composition and local environmental conditions. However, disentangling the precise factors that determine recruitment success in species that critically rely on mycorrhizal fungi represents a major challenge. In this study, we used seed germination experiments, 454 amplicon pyrosequencing and assessment of soil conditions to investigate the factors driving changes in local abundance in 28 populations of the orchid Neottia ovata. Comparison of population sizes measured in 2003 and 2013 showed that nearly 60% of the studied populations had declined in size (average growth rate across all populations: -0.01). Investigation of the mycorrhizal fungi in both the roots and soil revealed a total of 68 species of putatively mycorrhizal fungi, 21 of which occurred exclusively in roots, 25 that occurred solely in soil and 22 that were observed in both the soil and roots. Seed germination was limited and significantly and positively related to soil moisture content and soil pH, but not to fungal community composition. Large populations or populations with high population growth rates showed significantly higher germination than small populations or populations declining in size, but no significant relationships were found between population size or growth and mycorrhizal diversity. Overall, these results indicate that temporal changes in abundance were related to the ability of seeds to germinate, but at the same time they provided limited evidence that variation in fungal communities played an important role in determining population dynamics. PMID:25963669

  1. Estimating the Size of HIV Key Affected Populations in Chongqing, China, Using the Network Scale-Up Method

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Wen; Wu, Guohui; Zhang, Wei; Hladik, Wolfgang; Abdul-Quader, Abu; Bulterys, Marc; Fuller, Serena; Wang, Lu

    2013-01-01

    Objectives To estimate the average social network size in the general population and the size of HIV key affected populations (KAPs) in Chongqing municipality using the network scale-up method (NSUM). Methods A general population survey was conducted in 2011 through a multistage random sampling method. Participants aged between 18 and 60 years were recruited. The average social network size (c) was estimated and adjusted by known population method. The size of HIV KAP in Chongqing municipality was estimated using the adjusted c value with adjustment for the transmission effect using the scaled respect factor. Results 3,026 inhabitants of Chongqing agreed to the survey, and 2,957 (97.7%) completed the questionnaire. The adjusted c value was 310. The estimated size of KAP was 28,418(95% Confidence Interval (CI):26,636∼30,201) for female sex workers (FSW), 163,199(95%CI:156,490∼169,908) for clients of FSW, 37,959(95%CI: 34,888∼41,030) for drug users (DU), 14,975(95%CI:13,047∼16,904) for injecting drug users (IDU) and 16,767(95%CI:14,602∼18,932) for men who have sex with men (MSM). The ratio of clients to FSW was 5.74∶1, and IDU accounted for 39.5% of the DU population. The estimates suggest that FSW account for 0.37% of the female population aged 15–49 years in Chongqing, and clients of FSW and MSM represent 2.09% and 0.21% of the male population aged 15–49 years in the city, respectively. Conclusion NSUM provides reasonable population size estimates for FSW, their clients, DU and IDU in Chongqing. However, it is likely to underestimate the population size of MSM even after adjusting for the transmission effect. PMID:23967246

  2. Population Size Estimation of Men Who Have Sex with Men in Tbilisi, Georgia; Multiple Methods and Triangulation of Findings

    PubMed Central

    Sulaberidze, Lela; Mirzazadeh, Ali; Chikovani, Ivdity; Shengelia, Natia; Tsereteli, Nino; Gotsadze, George

    2016-01-01

    Introduction An accurate estimation of the population size of men who have sex with men (MSM) is critical to the success of HIV program planning and to monitoring of the response to epidemic as a whole, but is quite often missing. In this study, our aim was to estimate the population size of MSM in Tbilisi, Georgia and compare it with other estimates in the region. Methods In the absence of a gold standard for estimating the population size of MSM, this study reports a range of methods, including network scale-up, mobile/web apps multiplier, service and unique object multiplier, network-based capture-recapture, Handcock RDS-based and Wisdom of Crowds methods. To apply all these methods, two surveys were conducted: first, a household survey among 1,015 adults from the general population, and second, a respondent driven sample of 210 MSM. We also conducted a literature review of MSM size estimation in Eastern European and Central Asian countries. Results The median population size of MSM generated from all previously mentioned methods was estimated to be 5,100 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 3,243 ~ 9,088). This corresponds to 1.42% (95%CI: 0.9% ~ 2.53%) of the adult male population in Tbilisi. Conclusion Our size estimates of the MSM population (1.42% (95%CI: 0.9% ~ 2.53%) of the adult male population in Tbilisi) fall within ranges reported in other Eastern European and Central Asian countries. These estimates can provide valuable information for country level HIV prevention program planning and evaluation. Furthermore, we believe, that our results will narrow the gap in data availability on the estimates of the population size of MSM in the region. PMID:26828366

  3. Improved confidence intervals for the linkage disequilibrium method for estimating effective population size.

    PubMed

    Jones, A T; Ovenden, J R; Wang, Y-G

    2016-10-01

    The linkage disequilibrium method is currently the most widely used single sample estimator of genetic effective population size. The commonly used software packages come with two options, referred to as the parametric and jackknife methods, for computing the associated confidence intervals. However, little is known on the coverage performance of these methods, and the published data suggest there may be some room for improvement. Here, we propose two new methods for generating confidence intervals and compare them with the two in current use through a simulation study. The new confidence interval methods tend to be conservative but outperform the existing methods for generating confidence intervals under certain circumstances, such as those that may be encountered when making estimates using large numbers of single-nucleotide polymorphisms.

  4. Improved confidence intervals for the linkage disequilibrium method for estimating effective population size.

    PubMed

    Jones, A T; Ovenden, J R; Wang, Y-G

    2016-10-01

    The linkage disequilibrium method is currently the most widely used single sample estimator of genetic effective population size. The commonly used software packages come with two options, referred to as the parametric and jackknife methods, for computing the associated confidence intervals. However, little is known on the coverage performance of these methods, and the published data suggest there may be some room for improvement. Here, we propose two new methods for generating confidence intervals and compare them with the two in current use through a simulation study. The new confidence interval methods tend to be conservative but outperform the existing methods for generating confidence intervals under certain circumstances, such as those that may be encountered when making estimates using large numbers of single-nucleotide polymorphisms. PMID:27005004

  5. [Mode and size of HPA-typed platelet apheresis donor bank in Chinese Han population].

    PubMed

    Dai, Yu-Dong

    2010-08-01

    This study was purposed to determine the mode and size of human platelet antigens (HPA) typed platelet apheresis donor bank. The published data of HPA distribution collected from Chinese Han population of 16 provinces were analyzed. The combined data were tested with the Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. The results showed that the bb homozygote was not detected in HPA-1, -4, -6, -10, and b gene was not found in HPA-7-9, 11-14, -16. There were 648 combined HPA 1-16 genotypes in Chinese Han population, and the cumulative frequency of 42 combinations higher than 0.001 were 0.9763. The highest frequency (0.2012) in combination was HPA-(7-8-9-11-12-13-14-16) aa - (1-4-5-6-10) aa-2aa-3ab-15ab. The probability of HPA dual antigen mismatch in HPA-15, -3 and -2 was higher than the 0.1, and the probability in the HPA-1, -5, and -6 was between 0.01 - 0.1. The probability of full-match in HPA1-16 antigens was 0.3195 in Chinese Han population after the random blood transfusion. According to the curve drawn by donor number (N) versus frequency (F), the regression equation LogN = -0.4394 x Ln (F) +0.4324 was derived at P = 95%. If the derived frequency (product of HPA frequency and ABO frequency) is 0.005, then the N should be 576.07 at least in Chinese Han population. It is concluded that the mode of regional, multi-center database of HPA-typed platelet apheresis donor bank may be acceptable in Chinese Han population, and the suitable number of HPA-typed platelet donor in one bank may be 600. Therefore, the bank can be used to treat the platelet transfusion refractoriness (PTR) caused by HPA-15, 3 and 2 mismatch mainly, and can be expanded effectively in similar genetic background to deal with the low-frequency HPA antigens mismatch. The number of HPA-typed platelet apheresis donor influences not only on the frequency of HPA, but also on the frequency of ABO group.

  6. Estimation of avian population sizes and species richness across a boreal landscape in Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Handel, C.M.; Swanson, S.A.; Nigro, Debora A.; Matsuoka, S.M.

    2009-01-01

    We studied the distribution of birds breeding within five ecological landforms in Yukon-Charley Rivers National Preserve, a 10,194-km2 roadless conservation unit on the Alaska-Canada border in the boreal forest zone. Passerines dominated the avifauna numerically, comprising 97% of individuals surveyed but less than half of the 115 species recorded in the Preserve. We used distance-sampling and discrete-removal models to estimate detection probabilities, densities, and population sizes across the Preserve for 23 species of migrant passerines and five species of resident passerines. Yellow-rumped Warblers (Dendroica coronata) and Dark-eyed Juncos (Junco hyemalis) were the most abundant species, together accounting for 41% of the migrant passerine populations estimated. White-winged Crossbills (Loxia leucoptera), Boreal Chickadees (Poecile hudsonica), and Gray Jays (Perisoreus canadensis) were the most abundant residents. Species richness was greatest in the Floodplain/Terrace landform flanking the Yukon River but densities were highest in the Subalpine landform. Species composition was related to past glacial history and current physiography of the region and differed notably from other areas of the northwestern boreal forest. Point-transect surveys, augmented with auxiliary observations, were well suited to sampling the largely passerine avifauna across this rugged landscape and could be used across the boreal forest region to monitor changes in northern bird distribution and abundance. ?? 2009 The Wilson Ornithological Society.

  7. GONe: Software for estimating effective population size in species with generational overlap

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Coombs, J.A.; Letcher, B.H.; Nislow, K.H.

    2012-01-01

    GONe is a user-friendly, Windows-based program for estimating effective size (N e) in populations with overlapping generations. It uses the Jorde-Ryman modification to the temporal method to account for age structure in populations. This method requires estimates of age-specific survival and birth rate and allele frequencies measured in two or more consecutive cohorts. Allele frequencies are acquired by reading in genotypic data from files formatted for either GENEPOP or TEMPOFS. For each interval between consecutive cohorts, N e is estimated at each locus and over all loci. Furthermore, N e estimates are output for three different genetic drift estimators (F s, F c and F k). Confidence intervals are derived from a chi-square distribution with degrees of freedom equal to the number of independent alleles. GONe has been validated over a wide range of N e values, and for scenarios where survival and birth rates differ between sexes, sex ratios are unequal and reproductive variances differ. GONe is freely available for download at. ?? 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  8. Estimates of effective population size and inbreeding in South African indigenous chicken populations: implications for the conservation of unique genetic resources.

    PubMed

    Mtileni, Bohani; Dzama, Kennedy; Nephawe, Khathutshelo; Rhode, Clint

    2016-06-01

    Conservation of locally adapted indigenous livestock breeds has become an important objective in sustainable animal breeding, as these breeds represent a unique genetic resource. Therefore, the Agricultural Research Council of South Africa initiated a conservation programme for four South African indigenous chicken breeds. The evaluation and monitoring of the genetic constitution of these conservation flocks is important for proper management of the conservation programme. Using molecular genetic analyses, the effective population sizes and relatedness of these conservation flocks were compared to village (field) chicken populations from which they were derived. Genetic diversity within and between these populations are further discussed within the context of population size. The conservation flocks for the respective breeds had relatively small effective population sizes (point estimate range 38.6-78.6) in comparison to the field populations (point estimate range 118.9-580.0). Furthermore, evidence supports a transient heterozygous excess, generally associated with the occurrence of a recent population bottleneck. Genetic diversity, as measured by the number of alleles, heterozygosity and information index, was also significantly reduced in the conservation flocks. The average relatedness amongst the conservation flocks was high, whilst it remained low for the field populations. There was also significant evidence for population differentiation between field and conservation populations. F st estimates for conservation flocks were moderate to high with a maximum reached between VD_C and VD_F (0.285). However, F st estimates for field population were excessively low between the NN_C and EC_F (0.007) and between EC_F and OV_F (0.009). The significant population differentiation of the conservation flocks from their geographically correlated field populations of origin is further supported by the analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA), with 10.51 % of genetic

  9. Eating patterns and portion size associated with obesity in a Swedish population.

    PubMed

    Berg, Christina; Lappas, Georgios; Wolk, Alicja; Strandhagen, Elisabeth; Torén, Kjell; Rosengren, Annika; Thelle, Dag; Lissner, Lauren

    2009-02-01

    The objective of this study was to describe the association between meal pattern and obesity. The study is based on data from the INTERGENE research programme, and the study population consists of randomly selected women and men, aged 25-74, living in the Västra Götaland Region in Sweden. A total of 3610 were examined. Participants with measured BMI> or =30 were compared with others (BMI<30) with respect to questionnaire data on habitual meal patterns and intake of energy estimated from food frequencies and standard portions. Odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals were adjusted for age, sex, smoking and physical activity in logistic regression models. Being obese was significantly associated with omitting breakfast, OR 1.41 (1.05-1.90), omitting lunch OR 1.31 (1.04-1.66) and eating at night OR 1.62 (1.10-2.39). Obesity was also related to significantly larger self-reported portion sizes of main meals. No statistically significant relationship with intake of total energy was revealed. Thus, the results indicate that examination of meal patterns and portion sizes might tell us more about obesogenic food patterns than traditional nutrient analyses of food frequencies. Being obese was associated with a meal pattern shifted to later in the day and significantly larger self-reported portions of main meals.

  10. Association of BF gene polymorphism with litter size in a commercial pig cross population.

    PubMed

    Marantidis, A; Papadopoulos, A I; Michailidis, G; Avdi, M

    2013-09-01

    In the present study, the single nucleotide polymorphism of CFB (Complement Factor B), BF gene, was analyzed by PCR-RFLP in a commercial pig population in Greece. BF gene is coding for properdin, a protein that plays an integral role in the uterine epithelium growth and is found in a QTL region with many other genes associated with specific reproductive traits. BF gene is considered to affect various reproductive traits in pigs and the present study associated the BF gene genotypes with litter size of the sows (TNB, total number born and NBA number born alive piglets/birth). Sows with AB genotype gave statistically significant lower values for TNB and NBA piglets/birth (p<0.05) than the BB genotype. Our results support the concept that BF belongs to the group of genes that control the litter size of the sows and thus BF gene could be used for Marker-assisted selection programmes for the genetic improvement of reproductive characteristics in livestock. PMID:23910636

  11. Results and evaluation of a survey to estimate Pacific walrus population size, 2006

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Speckman, Suzann G.; Chernook, Vladimir I.; Burn, Douglas M.; Udevitz, Mark S.; Kochnev, Anatoly A.; Vasilev, Alexander; Jay, Chadwick V.; Lisovsky, Alexander; Fischbach, Anthony S.; Benter, R. Bradley

    2011-01-01

    In spring 2006, we conducted a collaborative U.S.-Russia survey to estimate abundance of the Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens). The Bering Sea was partitioned into survey blocks, and a systematic random sample of transects within a subset of the blocks was surveyed with airborne thermal scanners using standard strip-transect methodology. Counts of walruses in photographed groups were used to model the relation between thermal signatures and the number of walruses in groups, which was used to estimate the number of walruses in groups that were detected by the scanner but not photographed. We also modeled the probability of thermally detecting various-sized walrus groups to estimate the number of walruses in groups undetected by the scanner. We used data from radio-tagged walruses to adjust on-ice estimates to account for walruses in the water during the survey. The estimated area of available habitat averaged 668,000 km2 and the area of surveyed blocks was 318,204 km2. The number of Pacific walruses within the surveyed area was estimated at 129,000 with 95% confidence limits of 55,000 to 507,000 individuals. This value can be used by managers as a minimum estimate of the total population size.

  12. Simple life-history traits explain key effective population size ratios across diverse taxa

    PubMed Central

    Waples, Robin S.; Luikart, Gordon; Faulkner, James R.; Tallmon, David A.

    2013-01-01

    Effective population size (Ne) controls both the rate of random genetic drift and the effectiveness of selection and migration, but it is difficult to estimate in nature. In particular, for species with overlapping generations, it is easier to estimate the effective number of breeders in one reproductive cycle (Nb) than Ne per generation. We empirically evaluated the relationship between life history and ratios of Ne, Nb and adult census size (N) using a recently developed model (agene) and published vital rates for 63 iteroparous animals and plants. Nb/Ne varied a surprising sixfold across species and, contrary to expectations, Nb was larger than Ne in over half the species. Up to two-thirds of the variance in Nb/Ne and up to half the variance in Ne/N was explained by just two life-history traits (age at maturity and adult lifespan) that have long interested both ecologists and evolutionary biologists. These results provide novel insights into, and demonstrate a close general linkage between, demographic and evolutionary processes across diverse taxa. For the first time, our results also make it possible to interpret rapidly accumulating estimates of Nb in the context of the rich body of evolutionary theory based on Ne per generation. PMID:23926150

  13. Assembly history of subhalo populations in galactic and cluster sized dark haloes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xie, Lizhi; Gao, Liang

    2015-12-01

    We make use of two suits of ultrahigh resolution N-body simulations of individual dark matter haloes from the Phoenix and the Aquarius Projects to investigate systematics of assembly history of subhaloes in dark matter haloes differing by a factor of 1000 in the halo mass. We have found that real progenitors which built up present-day subhalo population are relatively more abundant for high-mass haloes, in contrast to previous studies claiming a universal form independent of the host halo mass. That is mainly because of repeated counting of the `re-accreted' (progenitors passed through and were later re-accreted to the host more than once) and inclusion of the `ejected' progenitor population (progenitors were accreted to the host in the past but no longer members at present day) in previous studies. The typical accretion time for all progenitors vary strongly with the host halo mass, which is typical about z ˜ 5 for the galactic Aquarius and about z ˜ 3 for the cluster sized Phoenix haloes. Once these progenitors start to orbit their parent haloes, they rapidly lose their original mass but not their identifiers, more than 55 (50) per cent of them survive to present day for the Phoenix (Aquarius) haloes. At given redshift, survival fraction of the accreted subhalo is independent of the parent halo mass, whilst the mass-loss of the subhalo is more efficient in high-mass haloes. These systematics results in similarity and difference in the subhalo population in dark matter haloes of different masses at present day.

  14. Development of an online database of typical food portion sizes in Irish population groups.

    PubMed

    Lyons, Jacqueline; Walton, Janette; Flynn, Albert

    2013-01-01

    The Irish Food Portion Sizes Database (available at www.iuna.net) describes typical portion weights for an extensive range of foods and beverages for Irish children, adolescents and adults. The present paper describes the methodologies used to develop the database and some key characteristics of the portion weight data contained therein. The data are derived from three large, cross-sectional food consumption surveys carried out in Ireland over the last decade: the National Children's Food Survey (2003-2004), National Teens' Food Survey (2005-2006) and National Adult Nutrition Survey (2008-2010). Median, 25th and 75th percentile portion weights are described for a total of 545 items across the three survey groups, split by age group or sex as appropriate. The typical (median) portion weights reported for adolescents and adults are similar for many foods, while those reported for children are notably smaller. Adolescent and adult males generally consume larger portions than their female counterparts, though similar portion weights may be consumed where foods are packaged in unit amounts (for example, pots of yoghurt). The inclusion of energy under-reporters makes little difference to the estimation of typical portion weights in adults. The data have wide-ranging applications in dietary assessment and food labelling, and will serve as a useful reference against which to compare future portion size data from the Irish population. The present paper provides a useful context for researchers and others wishing to use the Irish Food Portion Sizes Database, and may guide researchers in other countries in establishing similar databases of their own.

  15. Absolute biological needs.

    PubMed

    McLeod, Stephen

    2014-07-01

    Absolute needs (as against instrumental needs) are independent of the ends, goals and purposes of personal agents. Against the view that the only needs are instrumental needs, David Wiggins and Garrett Thomson have defended absolute needs on the grounds that the verb 'need' has instrumental and absolute senses. While remaining neutral about it, this article does not adopt that approach. Instead, it suggests that there are absolute biological needs. The absolute nature of these needs is defended by appeal to: their objectivity (as against mind-dependence); the universality of the phenomenon of needing across the plant and animal kingdoms; the impossibility that biological needs depend wholly upon the exercise of the abilities characteristic of personal agency; the contention that the possession of biological needs is prior to the possession of the abilities characteristic of personal agency. Finally, three philosophical usages of 'normative' are distinguished. On two of these, to describe a phenomenon or claim as 'normative' is to describe it as value-dependent. A description of a phenomenon or claim as 'normative' in the third sense does not entail such value-dependency, though it leaves open the possibility that value depends upon the phenomenon or upon the truth of the claim. It is argued that while survival needs (or claims about them) may well be normative in this third sense, they are normative in neither of the first two. Thus, the idea of absolute need is not inherently normative in either of the first two senses. PMID:23586876

  16. Absolute biological needs.

    PubMed

    McLeod, Stephen

    2014-07-01

    Absolute needs (as against instrumental needs) are independent of the ends, goals and purposes of personal agents. Against the view that the only needs are instrumental needs, David Wiggins and Garrett Thomson have defended absolute needs on the grounds that the verb 'need' has instrumental and absolute senses. While remaining neutral about it, this article does not adopt that approach. Instead, it suggests that there are absolute biological needs. The absolute nature of these needs is defended by appeal to: their objectivity (as against mind-dependence); the universality of the phenomenon of needing across the plant and animal kingdoms; the impossibility that biological needs depend wholly upon the exercise of the abilities characteristic of personal agency; the contention that the possession of biological needs is prior to the possession of the abilities characteristic of personal agency. Finally, three philosophical usages of 'normative' are distinguished. On two of these, to describe a phenomenon or claim as 'normative' is to describe it as value-dependent. A description of a phenomenon or claim as 'normative' in the third sense does not entail such value-dependency, though it leaves open the possibility that value depends upon the phenomenon or upon the truth of the claim. It is argued that while survival needs (or claims about them) may well be normative in this third sense, they are normative in neither of the first two. Thus, the idea of absolute need is not inherently normative in either of the first two senses.

  17. Stock enhancement or sea ranching? Insights from monitoring the genetic diversity, relatedness and effective population size in a seeded great scallop population (Pecten maximus).

    PubMed

    Morvezen, R; Boudry, P; Laroche, J; Charrier, G

    2016-09-01

    The mass release of hatchery-propagated stocks raises numerous questions concerning its efficiency in terms of local recruitment and effect on the genetic diversity of wild populations. A seeding program, consisting of mass release of hatchery-produced juveniles in the local naturally occurring population of great scallops (Pecten maximus L.), was initiated in the early 1980s in the Bay of Brest (France). The present study aims at evaluating whether this seeding program leads to actual population enhancement, with detectable effects on genetic diversity and effective population size, or consists of sea ranching with limited genetic consequences on the wild stock. To address this question, microsatellite-based genetic monitoring of three hatchery-born and naturally recruited populations was conducted over a 5-year period. Results showed a limited reduction in allelic richness but a strong alteration of allelic frequencies in hatchery populations, while genetic diversity appeared very stable over time in the wild populations. A temporal increase in relatedness was observed in both cultured stock and wild populations. Effective population size (Ne) estimates were low and variable in the wild population. Moreover, the application of the Ryman-Laikre model suggested a high contribution of hatchery-born scallops to the reproductive output of the wild population. Overall, the data suggest that the main objective of the seeding program, which is stock enhancement, is fulfilled. Moreover, gene flow from surrounding populations and/or the reproductive input of undetected sub-populations within the bay may buffer the Ryman-Laikre effect and ensure the retention of the local genetic variability.

  18. Characterizing the Influence of Effective Population Size on the Rate of Adaptation: Gillespie’s Darwin Domain

    PubMed Central

    Jensen, Jeffrey D.; Bachtrog, Doris

    2011-01-01

    Characterizing the role of effective population size in dictating the rate of adaptive evolution remains a major challenge in evolutionary biology. Depending on the underlying distribution of fitness effects of new mutations, populations of different sizes may differ vastly in their rate of adaptation. Here, we collect polymorphism data at over 100 loci for two closely related Drosophila species with different current effective population sizes (Ne), Drosophila miranda and D. pseudoobscura, to evaluate the prevalence of adaptive evolution versus genetic drift in molecular evolution. Utilizing these large and consistently sampled data sets, we obtain greatly improved estimates of the demographic histories of both species. Specifically, although current Ne differs between these species, their ancestral sizes were much more similar. We find that statistical approaches capturing recent adaptive evolution (using patterns of polymorphisms) detect higher rates of adaptive evolution in the larger D. pseudoobscura population. In contrast, methods aimed at detecting selection over longer time periods (i.e., those relying on divergence data) estimate more similar rates of adaptation between the two species. Thus, our results suggest an important role of effective population size in dictating rates of adaptation and highlight how complicated population histories—as is probably the case for most species—can effect rates of adaptation. Additionally, we also show how different methodologies to detect positive selection can reveal information about different timescales of adaptive evolution. PMID:21705473

  19. Correlated evolution of life-history with size at maturity in Daphnia pulicaria: patterns within and between populations.

    PubMed

    Baer, Charles F; Lynch, Michael

    2003-04-01

    Explaining the repeated evolution of similar sets of traits under similar environmental conditions is an important issue in evolutionary biology. The extreme alternative classes of explanations for correlated suites of traits are optimal adaptation and genetic constraint resulting from pleiotropy. Adaptive explanations presume that individual traits are free to evolve to their local optima and that convergent evolution represents particularly adaptive combinations of traits. Alternatively, if pleiotropy is strong and difficult to break, strong selection on one or a few particularly important characters would be expected to result in consistent correlated evolution of associated traits. If pleiotropy is common, we predict that the pattern of divergence among populations will consistently reflect the within-population genetic architecture. To test the idea that the multivariate life-history phenotype is largely a byproduct of strong selection on body size, we imposed divergent artificial selection on size at maturity upon two populations of the cladoceran Daphnia pulicaria, chosen on the basis of their extreme divergence in body size. Overall, the trajectory of divergence between the two natural populations did not differ from that predicted by the genetic architecture within each population. However, the pattern of correlated responses suggested the presence of strong pleiotropic constraints only for adult body size and not for other life-history traits. One trait, offspring size, appears to have evolved in a way different from that expected from the within-population genetic architecture and may be under stabilizing selection.

  20. Estimation of the population size of Canadian commercial poultry farms by log-linear capture-recapture analysis.

    PubMed

    El Allaki, Farouk; Christensen, Jette; Vallières, André; Paré, Julie

    2014-10-01

    The objective of this study was to estimate the population size of Canadian poultry farms in 3 subpopulations (British Columbia, Ontario, and Other) by poultry category. We used data for 2008 to 2011 from the Canadian Notifiable Avian Influenza (NAI) Surveillance System (CanNAISS). Log-linear capture-recapture models were applied to estimate the number of commercial chicken and turkey farms. The estimated size of farm populations was validated by comparing sizes to data provided by the Canadian poultry industry in 2007, which were assumed to be complete and exhaustive. Our results showed that the log-linear modelling approach was an appropriate tool to estimate the population size of Canadian commercial chicken and turkey farms. The 2007 farm population size for each poultry category was included in the 95% confidence intervals of the farm population size estimates. Log-linear capture-recapture modelling might be useful for estimating the number of farms using surveillance data when no comprehensive registry exists.

  1. 45 CFR Appendix C to Part 1356 - Calculating Sample Size for NYTD Follow-Up Populations

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... Populations C Appendix C to Part 1356 Public Welfare Regulations Relating to Public Welfare (Continued) OFFICE... Follow-Up Populations 1. Using Finite Population Correction The Finite Population Correction (FPC) is applied when the sample is drawn from a population of one to 5,000 youth, because the sample is more...

  2. 45 CFR Appendix C to Part 1356 - Calculating Sample Size for NYTD Follow-Up Populations

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... Populations C Appendix C to Part 1356 Public Welfare Regulations Relating to Public Welfare (Continued) OFFICE... Follow-Up Populations 1. Using Finite Population Correction The Finite Population Correction (FPC) is applied when the sample is drawn from a population of one to 5,000 youth, because the sample is more...

  3. 45 CFR Appendix C to Part 1356 - Calculating Sample Size for NYTD Follow-Up Populations

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... Populations C Appendix C to Part 1356 Public Welfare Regulations Relating to Public Welfare (Continued) OFFICE... Follow-Up Populations 1. Using Finite Population Correction The Finite Population Correction (FPC) is applied when the sample is drawn from a population of one to 5,000 youth, because the sample is more...

  4. 45 CFR Appendix C to Part 1356 - Calculating Sample Size for NYTD Follow-Up Populations

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... Populations C Appendix C to Part 1356 Public Welfare Regulations Relating to Public Welfare (Continued) OFFICE... Follow-Up Populations 1. Using Finite Population Correction The Finite Population Correction (FPC) is applied when the sample is drawn from a population of one to 5,000 youth, because the sample is more...

  5. Estimating the absolute wealth of households

    PubMed Central

    Gerkey, Drew; Hadley, Craig

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Objective To estimate the absolute wealth of households using data from demographic and health surveys. Methods We developed a new metric, the absolute wealth estimate, based on the rank of each surveyed household according to its material assets and the assumed shape of the distribution of wealth among surveyed households. Using data from 156 demographic and health surveys in 66 countries, we calculated absolute wealth estimates for households. We validated the method by comparing the proportion of households defined as poor using our estimates with published World Bank poverty headcounts. We also compared the accuracy of absolute versus relative wealth estimates for the prediction of anthropometric measures. Findings The median absolute wealth estimates of 1 403 186 households were 2056 international dollars per capita (interquartile range: 723–6103). The proportion of poor households based on absolute wealth estimates were strongly correlated with World Bank estimates of populations living on less than 2.00 United States dollars per capita per day (R2 = 0.84). Absolute wealth estimates were better predictors of anthropometric measures than relative wealth indexes. Conclusion Absolute wealth estimates provide new opportunities for comparative research to assess the effects of economic resources on health and human capital, as well as the long-term health consequences of economic change and inequality. PMID:26170506

  6. A Re-Evaluation of the Size of the White Shark (Carcharodon carcharias) Population off California, USA

    PubMed Central

    Burgess, George H.; Bruce, Barry D.; Cailliet, Gregor M.; Goldman, Kenneth J.; Grubbs, R. Dean; Lowe, Christopher G.; MacNeil, M. Aaron; Mollet, Henry F.; Weng, Kevin C.; O'Sullivan, John B.

    2014-01-01

    White sharks are highly migratory and segregate by sex, age and size. Unlike marine mammals, they neither surface to breathe nor frequent haul-out sites, hindering generation of abundance data required to estimate population size. A recent tag-recapture study used photographic identifications of white sharks at two aggregation sites to estimate abundance in “central California” at 219 mature and sub-adult individuals. They concluded this represented approximately one-half of the total abundance of mature and sub-adult sharks in the entire eastern North Pacific Ocean (ENP). This low estimate generated great concern within the conservation community, prompting petitions for governmental endangered species designations. We critically examine that study and find violations of model assumptions that, when considered in total, lead to population underestimates. We also use a Bayesian mixture model to demonstrate that the inclusion of transient sharks, characteristic of white shark aggregation sites, would substantially increase abundance estimates for the adults and sub-adults in the surveyed sub-population. Using a dataset obtained from the same sampling locations and widely accepted demographic methodology, our analysis indicates a minimum all-life stages population size of >2000 individuals in the California subpopulation is required to account for the number and size range of individual sharks observed at the two sampled sites. Even accounting for methodological and conceptual biases, an extrapolation of these data to estimate the white shark population size throughout the ENP is inappropriate. The true ENP white shark population size is likely several-fold greater as both our study and the original published estimate exclude non-aggregating sharks and those that independently aggregate at other important ENP sites. Accurately estimating the central California and ENP white shark population size requires methodologies that account for biases introduced by

  7. A re-evaluation of the size of the white shark (Carcharodon carcharias) population off California, USA.

    PubMed

    Burgess, George H; Bruce, Barry D; Cailliet, Gregor M; Goldman, Kenneth J; Grubbs, R Dean; Lowe, Christopher G; MacNeil, M Aaron; Mollet, Henry F; Weng, Kevin C; O'Sullivan, John B

    2014-01-01

    White sharks are highly migratory and segregate by sex, age and size. Unlike marine mammals, they neither surface to breathe nor frequent haul-out sites, hindering generation of abundance data required to estimate population size. A recent tag-recapture study used photographic identifications of white sharks at two aggregation sites to estimate abundance in "central California" at 219 mature and sub-adult individuals. They concluded this represented approximately one-half of the total abundance of mature and sub-adult sharks in the entire eastern North Pacific Ocean (ENP). This low estimate generated great concern within the conservation community, prompting petitions for governmental endangered species designations. We critically examine that study and find violations of model assumptions that, when considered in total, lead to population underestimates. We also use a Bayesian mixture model to demonstrate that the inclusion of transient sharks, characteristic of white shark aggregation sites, would substantially increase abundance estimates for the adults and sub-adults in the surveyed sub-population. Using a dataset obtained from the same sampling locations and widely accepted demographic methodology, our analysis indicates a minimum all-life stages population size of >2000 individuals in the California subpopulation is required to account for the number and size range of individual sharks observed at the two sampled sites. Even accounting for methodological and conceptual biases, an extrapolation of these data to estimate the white shark population size throughout the ENP is inappropriate. The true ENP white shark population size is likely several-fold greater as both our study and the original published estimate exclude non-aggregating sharks and those that independently aggregate at other important ENP sites. Accurately estimating the central California and ENP white shark population size requires methodologies that account for biases introduced by sampling a

  8. A re-evaluation of the size of the white shark (Carcharodon carcharias) population off California, USA.

    PubMed

    Burgess, George H; Bruce, Barry D; Cailliet, Gregor M; Goldman, Kenneth J; Grubbs, R Dean; Lowe, Christopher G; MacNeil, M Aaron; Mollet, Henry F; Weng, Kevin C; O'Sullivan, John B

    2014-01-01

    White sharks are highly migratory and segregate by sex, age and size. Unlike marine mammals, they neither surface to breathe nor frequent haul-out sites, hindering generation of abundance data required to estimate population size. A recent tag-recapture study used photographic identifications of white sharks at two aggregation sites to estimate abundance in "central California" at 219 mature and sub-adult individuals. They concluded this represented approximately one-half of the total abundance of mature and sub-adult sharks in the entire eastern North Pacific Ocean (ENP). This low estimate generated great concern within the conservation community, prompting petitions for governmental endangered species designations. We critically examine that study and find violations of model assumptions that, when considered in total, lead to population underestimates. We also use a Bayesian mixture model to demonstrate that the inclusion of transient sharks, characteristic of white shark aggregation sites, would substantially increase abundance estimates for the adults and sub-adults in the surveyed sub-population. Using a dataset obtained from the same sampling locations and widely accepted demographic methodology, our analysis indicates a minimum all-life stages population size of >2000 individuals in the California subpopulation is required to account for the number and size range of individual sharks observed at the two sampled sites. Even accounting for methodological and conceptual biases, an extrapolation of these data to estimate the white shark population size throughout the ENP is inappropriate. The true ENP white shark population size is likely several-fold greater as both our study and the original published estimate exclude non-aggregating sharks and those that independently aggregate at other important ENP sites. Accurately estimating the central California and ENP white shark population size requires methodologies that account for biases introduced by sampling a

  9. New Nuclear SNP Markers Unravel the Genetic Structure and Effective Population Size of Albacore Tuna (Thunnus alalunga)

    PubMed Central

    Laconcha, Urtzi; Iriondo, Mikel; Arrizabalaga, Haritz; Manzano, Carmen; Markaide, Pablo; Montes, Iratxe; Zarraonaindia, Iratxe; Velado, Igor; Bilbao, Eider; Goñi, Nicolas; Santiago, Josu; Domingo, Andrés; Karakulak, Saadet; Oray, Işık; Estonba, Andone

    2015-01-01

    In the present study we have investigated the population genetic structure of albacore (Thunnus alalunga, Bonnaterre 1788) and assessed the loss of genetic diversity, likely due to overfishing, of albacore population in the North Atlantic Ocean. For this purpose, 1,331 individuals from 26 worldwide locations were analyzed by genotyping 75 novel nuclear SNPs. Our results indicated the existence of four genetically homogeneous populations delimited within the Mediterranean Sea, the Atlantic Ocean, the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. Current definition of stocks allows the sustainable management of albacore since no stock includes more than one genetic entity. In addition, short- and long-term effective population sizes were estimated for the North Atlantic Ocean albacore population, and results showed no historical decline for this population. Therefore, the genetic diversity and, consequently, the adaptive potential of this population have not been significantly affected by overfishing. PMID:26090851

  10. New Nuclear SNP Markers Unravel the Genetic Structure and Effective Population Size of Albacore Tuna (Thunnus alalunga).

    PubMed

    Laconcha, Urtzi; Iriondo, Mikel; Arrizabalaga, Haritz; Manzano, Carmen; Markaide, Pablo; Montes, Iratxe; Zarraonaindia, Iratxe; Velado, Igor; Bilbao, Eider; Goñi, Nicolas; Santiago, Josu; Domingo, Andrés; Karakulak, Saadet; Oray, Işık; Estonba, Andone

    2015-01-01

    In the present study we have investigated the population genetic structure of albacore (Thunnus alalunga, Bonnaterre 1788) and assessed the loss of genetic diversity, likely due to overfishing, of albacore population in the North Atlantic Ocean. For this purpose, 1,331 individuals from 26 worldwide locations were analyzed by genotyping 75 novel nuclear SNPs. Our results indicated the existence of four genetically homogeneous populations delimited within the Mediterranean Sea, the Atlantic Ocean, the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. Current definition of stocks allows the sustainable management of albacore since no stock includes more than one genetic entity. In addition, short- and long-term effective population sizes were estimated for the North Atlantic Ocean albacore population, and results showed no historical decline for this population. Therefore, the genetic diversity and, consequently, the adaptive potential of this population have not been significantly affected by overfishing. PMID:26090851

  11. New Nuclear SNP Markers Unravel the Genetic Structure and Effective Population Size of Albacore Tuna (Thunnus alalunga).

    PubMed

    Laconcha, Urtzi; Iriondo, Mikel; Arrizabalaga, Haritz; Manzano, Carmen; Markaide, Pablo; Montes, Iratxe; Zarraonaindia, Iratxe; Velado, Igor; Bilbao, Eider; Goñi, Nicolas; Santiago, Josu; Domingo, Andrés; Karakulak, Saadet; Oray, Işık; Estonba, Andone

    2015-01-01

    In the present study we have investigated the population genetic structure of albacore (Thunnus alalunga, Bonnaterre 1788) and assessed the loss of genetic diversity, likely due to overfishing, of albacore population in the North Atlantic Ocean. For this purpose, 1,331 individuals from 26 worldwide locations were analyzed by genotyping 75 novel nuclear SNPs. Our results indicated the existence of four genetically homogeneous populations delimited within the Mediterranean Sea, the Atlantic Ocean, the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. Current definition of stocks allows the sustainable management of albacore since no stock includes more than one genetic entity. In addition, short- and long-term effective population sizes were estimated for the North Atlantic Ocean albacore population, and results showed no historical decline for this population. Therefore, the genetic diversity and, consequently, the adaptive potential of this population have not been significantly affected by overfishing.

  12. The history of effective population size and genetic diversity in the Yellowstone grizzly (Ursus arctos): implications for conservation.

    PubMed

    Miller, Craig R; Waits, Lisette P

    2003-04-01

    Protein, mtDNA, and nuclear microsatellite DNA analyses have demonstrated that the Yellowstone grizzly bear has low levels of genetic variability compared with other Ursus arctos populations. Researchers have attributed this difference to inbreeding during a century of anthropogenic isolation and population size reduction. We test this hypothesis and assess the seriousness of genetic threats by generating microsatellite data for 110 museum specimens collected between 1912 and 1981. A loss of variability is detected, but it is much less severe than hypothesized. Variance in allele frequencies over time is used to estimate an effective population size of approximately 80 across the 20th century and >100 currently. The viability of the population is unlikely to be substantially reduced by genetic factors in the next several generations. However, gene flow from outside populations will be beneficial in avoiding inbreeding and the erosion of genetic diversity in the future.

  13. Study of the normal heart size in Northwest part of Iranian population: a cadaveric study

    PubMed Central

    Mohammadi, Shabnam; Hedjazi, Arya; Sajjadian, Maryam; Ghoroubi, Naser; Mohammadi, Maryam; Erfani, Saeed

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: The heart is in a muscular organ in the middle mediastinum. According to our knowledge, there is no standard data about the anthropologic parameters of normal Iranian hearts. Hence, the aim of the present study was to investigate the normal heart size in Iranian cadavers. Methods: In a cross-sectional study, 550 cadavers (104 female/446 male) from June 2014 to July 2015 in the Razavi Khorasan province of Iran were included in the study. After approval of the Ethical Committee, cadavers were divided into 10 groups based on age groups. Length, width, weight, chordae tendineae, papillary muscles, and heart valves were measured using vernier caliper. Finally, data were analyzed using SPSS software. Results: The mean values of the demographic data were as follows: age= 42.12 ± 21.34 years; weight = 60.38 ± 15.32 kg; height = 158.14 ± 23.77 cm; and BMI = 24.66 ± 17.60 kg/m2. The mean values of the heart length, width, chordae tendineae, pupillary muscles, weight, and index of the heart were 11.41 ± 2.15 cm, 8.21 ± 4.38 cm, 19.41 ± 6.70, 5.74 ± 1.96, 247.78 ± 62.27 grams, and 5.74 ± 1.96, respectively. In addition, the circumference of the tricuspid valve, circumference of the mitral valves, and tricuspid and mitral areas were 8.80 ± 1.11 cm, 9.43 ± 1.44 cm, 4.11 ± 0.71 cm2, and 4.50 ± 0.90 cm2, respectively. Conclusion: Mean values of the heart’s length and width was similar to previous reports from western population. The circumference of the tricuspid valve was less than the textbook’s data, while circumference of the mitral valves was more than it. The study findings provide valuable information about standard data of the heart in the Iranian population, which is useful for surgeons as well as anthropologists. However, multi-center studies with a larger sample size are required to complete data about anatomical characteristics of normal hearts. PMID:27777697

  14. Natal dispersal in great bustards: the effect of sex, local population size and spatial isolation.

    PubMed

    Martín, Carlos A; Alonso, Juan C; Alonso, Javier A; Palacín, Carlos; Magaña, Marina; Martín, Beatriz

    2008-03-01

    1. We investigated the causes of natal dispersal in four Spanish areas where 35 breeding groups of the polygynous great bustard Otis tarda were monitored intensively. A total of 392 juveniles were radio-tracked between 1991 and 2006 by ground and via aeroplane to avoid potential biases derived from the non-detection of long-distance dispersers. 2. We explored 10 explanatory variables that were related to individual phenotypic features, habitat and conspecific traits in terms of group size and breeding performance, and spatial distribution of available breeding groups. Probability of group change and natal dispersal distances were investigated separately through multifactorial analyses. 3. Natal dispersal occurred in 47.8% of the birds and median natal dispersal distance of dispersers was 18.1 km (range 4.97-178.42 km). Sex largely determined the dispersal probability, with 75.6% of males being dispersers and 80.0% of females being philopatric, in contrast to the general pattern of female-biased dispersal found in most avian species. 4. Both the frequency of natal dispersal and dispersal distances were affected by the spatial distribution of breeding groups. More isolated groups showed a higher proportion of philopatric individuals, the effect being more evident in males than in females. This implies a reduction in gene flow in fragmented populations, as most genetic exchange is achieved through male dispersal. Additionally, dispersers hatched in more isolated groups tended to exhibit longer dispersal distances, which increases the associated energetic costs and mortality risks. 5. The dispersal decision was influenced by the number of conspecifics in the natal group. The individual probability of natal dispersal was related inversely to the size of the natal group, which supports the balanced dispersal model and the conspecific attraction hypothesis. 6. Overall, our results provide a good example of phenotypic plasticity and reinforce the current view that

  15. Population size drives industrial Saccharomyces cerevisiae alcoholic fermentation and is under genetic control.

    PubMed

    Albertin, Warren; Marullo, Philippe; Aigle, Michel; Dillmann, Christine; de Vienne, Dominique; Bely, Marina; Sicard, Delphine

    2011-04-01

    Alcoholic fermentation (AF) conducted by Saccharomyces cerevisiae has been exploited for millennia in three important human food processes: beer and wine production and bread leavening. Most of the efforts to understand and improve AF have been made separately for each process, with strains that are supposedly well adapted. In this work, we propose a first comparison of yeast AFs in three synthetic media mimicking the dough/wort/grape must found in baking, brewing, and wine making. The fermentative behaviors of nine food-processing strains were evaluated in these media, at the cellular, populational, and biotechnological levels. A large variation in the measured traits was observed, with medium effects usually being greater than the strain effects. The results suggest that human selection targeted the ability to complete fermentation for wine strains and trehalose content for beer strains. Apart from these features, the food origin of the strains did not significantly affect AF, suggesting that an improvement program for a specific food processing industry could exploit the variability of strains used in other industries. Glucose utilization was analyzed, revealing plastic but also genetic variation in fermentation products and indicating that artificial selection could be used to modify the production of glycerol, acetate, etc. The major result was that the overall maximum CO(2) production rate (V(max)) was not related to the maximum CO(2) production rate per cell. Instead, a highly significant correlation between V(max) and the maximum population size was observed in all three media, indicating that human selection targeted the efficiency of cellular reproduction rather than metabolic efficiency. This result opens the way to new strategies for yeast improvement.

  16. Large bottleneck size in Cauliflower Mosaic Virus populations during host plant colonization.

    PubMed

    Monsion, Baptiste; Froissart, Rémy; Michalakis, Yannis; Blanc, Stéphane

    2008-10-01

    The effective size of populations (Ne) determines whether selection or genetic drift is the predominant force shaping their genetic structure and evolution. Despite their high mutation rate and rapid evolution, this parameter is poorly documented experimentally in viruses, particularly plant viruses. All available studies, however, have demonstrated the existence of huge within-host demographic fluctuations, drastically reducing Ne upon systemic invasion of different organs and tissues. Notably, extreme bottlenecks have been detected at the stage of systemic leaf colonization in all plant viral species investigated so far, sustaining the general idea that some unknown obstacle(s) imposes a barrier on the development of all plant viruses. This idea has important implications, as it appoints genetic drift as a constant major force in plant virus evolution. By co-inoculating several genetic variants of Cauliflower mosaic virus into a large number of replicate host plants, and by monitoring their relative frequency within the viral population over the course of the host systemic infection, only minute stochastic variations were detected. This allowed the estimation of the CaMV Ne during colonization of successive leaves at several hundreds of viral genomes, a value about 100-fold higher than that reported for any other plant virus investigated so far, and indicated the very limited role played by genetic drift during plant systemic infection by this virus. These results suggest that the barriers that generate bottlenecks in some plant virus species might well not exist, or can be surmounted by other viruses, implying that severe bottlenecks during host colonization do not necessarily apply to all plant-infecting viruses.

  17. Survival and population size of a resident bird species are declining as temperature increases.

    PubMed

    Santisteban, Leonard; Benkman, Craig W; Fetz, Trevor; Smith, Julie W

    2012-03-01

    1. A large number of migratory bird species appear to be declining as the result of climate change, but whether resident bird species have or will be adversely affected by climate change is less clear. We focus on the South Hills crossbill (Loxia curvirostra complex), which is endemic to about 70 km(2) of Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta latifolia) forest in southern Idaho, USA. 2. Our results indicate that the South Hills crossbill has declined by over 60% between 2003 and 2008, and that decreasing adult survival drives this population decline. 3. We evaluated the relative support for multiple hypotheses linking crossbill survival to climate, an ectoparasitic mite (scaly-leg mites Knemidokoptes jamaicensis), and the recent emergence of West Nile virus. Changes in adult apparent survival rate were closely associated with average spring and annual temperatures, and with high temperatures (≥32 °C) during summer, which have increased during the last decade. In contrast, there was little evidence that scaly-leg mites or West Nile virus contributed to recent declines in adult survival. 4. The most probable mechanism causing the decline in adult survival and population size is a decrease in the availability of their primary food resource, seeds in serotinous pine cones. Cone production has declined with increasing annual temperatures, and these cones appear to be prematurely opening owing to increasingly hot summer conditions releasing their seeds and reducing the carrying capacity for crossbills later in the year. 5. In light of regional climate change forecasts, which include an increase in both annual temperature and hot days (>32 °C), and the likely disappearance of lodgepole pine from southern Idaho by the end of this century, additional research is needed to determine how to maintain lodgepole pine forests and their supply of seeds to conserve one of the few bird species endemic to the continental United States.

  18. Survival and population size of a resident bird species are declining as temperature increases.

    PubMed

    Santisteban, Leonard; Benkman, Craig W; Fetz, Trevor; Smith, Julie W

    2012-03-01

    1. A large number of migratory bird species appear to be declining as the result of climate change, but whether resident bird species have or will be adversely affected by climate change is less clear. We focus on the South Hills crossbill (Loxia curvirostra complex), which is endemic to about 70 km(2) of Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta latifolia) forest in southern Idaho, USA. 2. Our results indicate that the South Hills crossbill has declined by over 60% between 2003 and 2008, and that decreasing adult survival drives this population decline. 3. We evaluated the relative support for multiple hypotheses linking crossbill survival to climate, an ectoparasitic mite (scaly-leg mites Knemidokoptes jamaicensis), and the recent emergence of West Nile virus. Changes in adult apparent survival rate were closely associated with average spring and annual temperatures, and with high temperatures (≥32 °C) during summer, which have increased during the last decade. In contrast, there was little evidence that scaly-leg mites or West Nile virus contributed to recent declines in adult survival. 4. The most probable mechanism causing the decline in adult survival and population size is a decrease in the availability of their primary food resource, seeds in serotinous pine cones. Cone production has declined with increasing annual temperatures, and these cones appear to be prematurely opening owing to increasingly hot summer conditions releasing their seeds and reducing the carrying capacity for crossbills later in the year. 5. In light of regional climate change forecasts, which include an increase in both annual temperature and hot days (>32 °C), and the likely disappearance of lodgepole pine from southern Idaho by the end of this century, additional research is needed to determine how to maintain lodgepole pine forests and their supply of seeds to conserve one of the few bird species endemic to the continental United States. PMID:22010811

  19. Population Size Drives Industrial Saccharomyces cerevisiae Alcoholic Fermentation and Is under Genetic Control▿†‡

    PubMed Central

    Albertin, Warren; Marullo, Philippe; Aigle, Michel; Dillmann, Christine; de Vienne, Dominique; Bely, Marina; Sicard, Delphine

    2011-01-01

    Alcoholic fermentation (AF) conducted by Saccharomyces cerevisiae has been exploited for millennia in three important human food processes: beer and wine production and bread leavening. Most of the efforts to understand and improve AF have been made separately for each process, with strains that are supposedly well adapted. In this work, we propose a first comparison of yeast AFs in three synthetic media mimicking the dough/wort/grape must found in baking, brewing, and wine making. The fermentative behaviors of nine food-processing strains were evaluated in these media, at the cellular, populational, and biotechnological levels. A large variation in the measured traits was observed, with medium effects usually being greater than the strain effects. The results suggest that human selection targeted the ability to complete fermentation for wine strains and trehalose content for beer strains. Apart from these features, the food origin of the strains did not significantly affect AF, suggesting that an improvement program for a specific food processing industry could exploit the variability of strains used in other industries. Glucose utilization was analyzed, revealing plastic but also genetic variation in fermentation products and indicating that artificial selection could be used to modify the production of glycerol, acetate, etc. The major result was that the overall maximum CO2 production rate (Vmax) was not related to the maximum CO2 production rate per cell. Instead, a highly significant correlation between Vmax and the maximum population size was observed in all three media, indicating that human selection targeted the efficiency of cellular reproduction rather than metabolic efficiency. This result opens the way to new strategies for yeast improvement. PMID:21357433

  20. Landscape selection by piping plovers has implications for measuring habitat and population size

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Anteau, Michael J.; Shaffer, Terry L.; Wiltermuth, Mark T.; Sherfy, Mark H.

    2014-01-01

    How breeding birds distribute in relation to landscape-scale habitat features has important implications for conservation because those features may constrain habitat suitability. Furthermore, knowledge of these associations can help build models to improve area-wide demographic estimates or to develop a sampling stratification for research and monitoring. This is particularly important for rare species that have uneven distributions across vast areas, such as the federally listed piping plover (Charadrius melodus; hereafter plover). We examined how remotely-sensed landscape features influenced the distribution of breeding plover pairs among 2-km shoreline segments during 2006–2009 at Lake Sakakawea in North Dakota, USA. We found strong associations between remotely-sensed landscape features and plover abundance and distribution (R2 = 0.65). Plovers were nearly absent from segments with bluffs (>25 m elevation increase within 250 m of shoreline). Relative plover density (pairs/ha) was markedly greater on islands (4.84 ± 1.22 SE) than on mainlands (0.85 ± 0.17 SE). Pair numbers increased with abundance of nesting habitat (unvegetated-flat areas β^=0.28±0.08SE ). On islands, pair numbers also increased with the relative proportion of the total area that was habitat ( β^=3.27±0.46SE ). Our model could be adapted to estimate the breeding population of plovers or to make predictions that provide a basis for stratification and design of future surveys. Knowledge of landscape features, such as bluffs, that exclude use by birds refines habitat suitability and facilitates more accurate estimates of habitat and population abundance, by decreasing the size of the sampling universe. Furthermore, techniques demonstrated here are applicable to other vast areas where birds breed in sparse or uneven densities.

  1. Population size drives industrial Saccharomyces cerevisiae alcoholic fermentation and is under genetic control.

    PubMed

    Albertin, Warren; Marullo, Philippe; Aigle, Michel; Dillmann, Christine; de Vienne, Dominique; Bely, Marina; Sicard, Delphine

    2011-04-01

    Alcoholic fermentation (AF) conducted by Saccharomyces cerevisiae has been exploited for millennia in three important human food processes: beer and wine production and bread leavening. Most of the efforts to understand and improve AF have been made separately for each process, with strains that are supposedly well adapted. In this work, we propose a first comparison of yeast AFs in three synthetic media mimicking the dough/wort/grape must found in baking, brewing, and wine making. The fermentative behaviors of nine food-processing strains were evaluated in these media, at the cellular, populational, and biotechnological levels. A large variation in the measured traits was observed, with medium effects usually being greater than the strain effects. The results suggest that human selection targeted the ability to complete fermentation for wine strains and trehalose content for beer strains. Apart from these features, the food origin of the strains did not significantly affect AF, suggesting that an improvement program for a specific food processing industry could exploit the variability of strains used in other industries. Glucose utilization was analyzed, revealing plastic but also genetic variation in fermentation products and indicating that artificial selection could be used to modify the production of glycerol, acetate, etc. The major result was that the overall maximum CO(2) production rate (V(max)) was not related to the maximum CO(2) production rate per cell. Instead, a highly significant correlation between V(max) and the maximum population size was observed in all three media, indicating that human selection targeted the efficiency of cellular reproduction rather than metabolic efficiency. This result opens the way to new strategies for yeast improvement. PMID:21357433

  2. Estimating the Effective Population Size from Temporal Allele Frequency Changes in Experimental Evolution

    PubMed Central

    Jónás, Ágnes; Taus, Thomas; Kosiol, Carolin; Schlötterer, Christian; Futschik, Andreas

    2016-01-01

    The effective population size (Ne) is a major factor determining allele frequency changes in natural and experimental populations. Temporal methods provide a powerful and simple approach to estimate short-term Ne. They use allele frequency shifts between temporal samples to calculate the standardized variance, which is directly related to Ne. Here we focus on experimental evolution studies that often rely on repeated sequencing of samples in pools (Pool-seq). Pool-seq is cost-effective and often outperforms individual-based sequencing in estimating allele frequencies, but it is associated with atypical sampling properties: Additional to sampling individuals, sequencing DNA in pools leads to a second round of sampling, which increases the variance of allele frequency estimates. We propose a new estimator of Ne, which relies on allele frequency changes in temporal data and corrects for the variance in both sampling steps. In simulations, we obtain accurate Ne estimates, as long as the drift variance is not too small compared to the sampling and sequencing variance. In addition to genome-wide Ne estimates, we extend our method using a recursive partitioning approach to estimate Ne locally along the chromosome. Since the type I error is controlled, our method permits the identification of genomic regions that differ significantly in their Ne estimates. We present an application to Pool-seq data from experimental evolution with Drosophila and provide recommendations for whole-genome data. The estimator is computationally efficient and available as an R package at https://github.com/ThomasTaus/Nest. PMID:27542959

  3. Effects of Overlapping Generations on Linkage Disequilibrium Estimates of Effective Population Size

    PubMed Central

    Waples, Robin S.; Antao, Tiago; Luikart, Gordon

    2014-01-01

    Use of single-sample genetic methods to estimate effective population size has skyrocketed in recent years. Although the underlying models assume discrete generations, they are widely applied to age-structured species. We simulated genetic data for 21 iteroparous animal and plant species to evaluate two untested hypotheses regarding performance of the single-sample method based on linkage disequilibrium (LD): (1) estimates based on single-cohort samples reflect the effective number of breeders in one reproductive cycle (Nb), and (2) mixed-age samples reflect the effective size per generation (Ne). We calculated true Ne and Nb, using the model species’ vital rates, and verified these with individual-based simulations. We show that single-cohort samples should be equally influenced by Nb and Ne and confirm this with simulated results: N^b was a linear (r2 = 0.98) function of the harmonic mean of Ne and Nb. We provide a quantitative bias correction for raw N^b based on the ratio Nb/Ne, which can be estimated from two or three simple life history traits. Bias-adjusted estimates were within 5% of true Nb for all 21 study species and proved robust when challenged with new data. Mixed-age adult samples produced downwardly biased estimates in all species, which we attribute to a two-locus Wahlund effect (mixture LD) caused by combining parents from different cohorts in a single sample. Results from this study will facilitate interpretation of rapidly accumulating genetic estimates in terms of both Ne (which influences long-term evolutionary processes) and Nb (which is more important for understanding eco-evolutionary dynamics and mating systems). PMID:24717176

  4. Population structure, effective population size and adverse effects of stocking in the endangered Australian eastern freshwater cod Maccullochella ikei.

    PubMed

    Nock, C J; Ovenden, J R; Butler, G L; Wooden, I; Moore, A; Baverstock, P R

    2011-01-01

    Microsatellite markers were used to examine spatio-temporal genetic variation in the endangered eastern freshwater cod Maccullochella ikei in the Clarence River system, eastern Australia. High levels of population structure were detected. A model-based clustering analysis of multilocus genotypes identified four populations that were highly differentiated by F-statistics (F(ST) = 0·09 - 0·49; P < 0·05), suggesting fragmentation and restricted dispersal particularly among upstream sites. Hatchery breeding programmes were used to re-establish locally extirpated populations and to supplement remnant populations. Bayesian and frequency-based analyses of hatchery fingerling samples provided evidence for population admixture in the hatchery, with the majority of parental stock sourced from distinct upstream sites. Comparison between historical and contemporary wild-caught samples showed a significant loss of heterozygosity (21%) and allelic richness (24%) in the Mann and Nymboida Rivers since the commencement of stocking. Fragmentation may have been a causative factor; however, temporal shifts in allele frequencies suggest swamping with hatchery-produced M. ikei has contributed to the genetic decline in the largest wild population. This study demonstrates the importance of using information on genetic variation and population structure in the management of breeding and stocking programmes, particularly for threatened species. PMID:21235562

  5. Four types of interference competition and their impacts on the ecology and evolution of size-structured populations and communities.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Lai; Andersen, Ken H; Dieckmann, Ulf; Brännström, Åke

    2015-09-01

    We investigate how four types of interference competition - which alternatively affect foraging, metabolism, survival, and reproduction - impact the ecology and evolution of size-structured populations. Even though all four types of interference competition reduce population biomass, interference competition at intermediate intensity sometimes significantly increases the abundance of adult individuals and the population׳s reproduction rate. We find that foraging and metabolic interference evolutionarily favor smaller maturation size when interference is weak and larger maturation size when interference is strong. The evolutionary response to survival interference and reproductive interference is always larger maturation size. We also investigate how the four types of interference competition impact the evolutionary dynamics and resultant diversity and trophic structure of size-structured communities. Like other types of trait-mediated competition, all four types of interference competition can induce disruptive selection and thus promote initial diversification. Even though foraging interference and reproductive interference are more potent in promoting initial diversification, they catalyze the formation of diverse communities with complex trophic structure only at high levels of interference intensity. By contrast, survival interference does so already at intermediate levels, while reproductive interference can only support relatively smaller communities with simpler trophic structure. Taken together, our results show how the type and intensity of interference competition jointly affect coexistence patterns in structured population models.

  6. Inferring Population Size History from Large Samples of Genome-Wide Molecular Data - An Approximate Bayesian Computation Approach

    PubMed Central

    Boitard, Simon; Rodríguez, Willy; Jay, Flora; Mona, Stefano; Austerlitz, Frédéric

    2016-01-01

    Inferring the ancestral dynamics of effective population size is a long-standing question in population genetics, which can now be tackled much more accurately thanks to the massive genomic data available in many species. Several promising methods that take advantage of whole-genome sequences have been recently developed in this context. However, they can only be applied to rather small samples, which limits their ability to estimate recent population size history. Besides, they can be very sensitive to sequencing or phasing errors. Here we introduce a new approximate Bayesian computation approach named PopSizeABC that allows estimating the evolution of the effective population size through time, using a large sample of complete genomes. This sample is summarized using the folded allele frequency spectrum and the average zygotic linkage disequilibrium at different bins of physical distance, two classes of statistics that are widely used in population genetics and can be easily computed from unphased and unpolarized SNP data. Our approach provides accurate estimations of past population sizes, from the very first generations before present back to the expected time to the most recent common ancestor of the sample, as shown by simulations under a wide range of demographic scenarios. When applied to samples of 15 or 25 complete genomes in four cattle breeds (Angus, Fleckvieh, Holstein and Jersey), PopSizeABC revealed a series of population declines, related to historical events such as domestication or modern breed creation. We further highlight that our approach is robust to sequencing errors, provided summary statistics are computed from SNPs with common alleles. PMID:26943927

  7. Inferring Population Size History from Large Samples of Genome-Wide Molecular Data - An Approximate Bayesian Computation Approach.

    PubMed

    Boitard, Simon; Rodríguez, Willy; Jay, Flora; Mona, Stefano; Austerlitz, Frédéric

    2016-03-01

    Inferring the ancestral dynamics of effective population size is a long-standing question in population genetics, which can now be tackled much more accurately thanks to the massive genomic data available in many species. Several promising methods that take advantage of whole-genome sequences have been recently developed in this context. However, they can only be applied to rather small samples, which limits their ability to estimate recent population size history. Besides, they can be very sensitive to sequencing or phasing errors. Here we introduce a new approximate Bayesian computation approach named PopSizeABC that allows estimating the evolution of the effective population size through time, using a large sample of complete genomes. This sample is summarized using the folded allele frequency spectrum and the average zygotic linkage disequilibrium at different bins of physical distance, two classes of statistics that are widely used in population genetics and can be easily computed from unphased and unpolarized SNP data. Our approach provides accurate estimations of past population sizes, from the very first generations before present back to the expected time to the most recent common ancestor of the sample, as shown by simulations under a wide range of demographic scenarios. When applied to samples of 15 or 25 complete genomes in four cattle breeds (Angus, Fleckvieh, Holstein and Jersey), PopSizeABC revealed a series of population declines, related to historical events such as domestication or modern breed creation. We further highlight that our approach is robust to sequencing errors, provided summary statistics are computed from SNPs with common alleles.

  8. Population size and relative abundance of adult Alabama shad reaching jim woodruff lock and dam, Apalachicola River, Florida

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ely, Patrick C.; Young, S.P.; Isely, J.J.

    2008-01-01

    We estimated the population size of migrating Alabama shad Alosa alabamae below Jim Woodruff Lock and Dam in the Apalachicola River (located in the central panhandle of northwestern Florida) using mark-recapture and relative abundance techniques. After adjustment for tag loss, emigration, and mortality, the population size was estimated as 25,935 (95% confidence interval, 17,715-39,535) in 2005, 2,767 (838-5,031) in 2006, and 8,511 (5,211-14,674) in 2007. The cumulative catch rate from boat electrofishing averaged 20.47 Alabama shad per hour in 2005, 6.10 per hour in 2006, and 13.17 per hour in 2007. The relationship between population size (N) and electrofishing catch per unit effort (CPUE) was modeled by the equation N = -9008.2 + (electrofishing CPUE X 1616.4). Additionally, in 2007 the hook-and-line catch rate averaged 1.94 Alabama shad per rod hour. A predictive model relating the population size and hook-and-line CPUE of spawning American shad A. sapidissima was applied to Alabama shad hook-and-line CPUE and produced satisfactory results. Recent spawning populations of Alabama shad in the Apalachicola River are low relative to American shad populations in other southeastern U.S. rivers. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2008.

  9. Effective population size does not predict codon usage bias in mammals

    PubMed Central

    Kessler, Michael D; Dean, Matthew D

    2014-01-01

    Synonymous codons are not used at equal frequency throughout the genome, a phenomenon termed codon usage bias (CUB). It is often assumed that interspecific variation in the intensity of CUB is related to species differences in effective population sizes (Ne), with selection on CUB operating less efficiently in species with small Ne. Here, we specifically ask whether variation in Ne predicts differences in CUB in mammals and report two main findings. First, across 41 mammalian genomes, CUB was not correlated with two indirect proxies of Ne (body mass and generation time), even though there was statistically significant evidence of selection shaping CUB across all species. Interestingly, autosomal genes showed higher codon usage bias compared to X-linked genes, and high-recombination genes showed higher codon usage bias compared to low recombination genes, suggesting intraspecific variation in Ne predicts variation in CUB. Second, across six mammalian species with genetic estimates of Ne (human, chimpanzee, rabbit, and three mouse species: Mus musculus, M. domesticus, and M. castaneus), Ne and CUB were weakly and inconsistently correlated. At least in mammals, interspecific divergence in Ne does not strongly predict variation in CUB. One hypothesis is that each species responds to a unique distribution of selection coefficients, confounding any straightforward link between Ne and CUB. PMID:25505518

  10. The size of the irregular migrant population in the European Union – counting the uncountable?

    PubMed

    Vogel, Dita; Kovacheva, Vesela; Prescott, Hannah

    2011-01-01

    It is difficult to estimate the size of the irregular migrant population in a specific city or country, and even more difficult to arrive at estimates at the European level. A review of past attempts at European-level estimates reveals that they rely on rough and outdated rules-of-thumb. In this paper, we present our own European level estimates for 2002, 2005, and 2008. We aggregate country-specific information, aiming at approximate comparability by consistent use of minimum and maximum estimates and by adjusting for obvious differences in definition and timescale. While the aggregated estimates are not considered highly reliable, they do -- for the first time -- provide transparency. The provision of more systematic medium quality estimates is shown to be the most promising way for improvement. The presented estimate indicates a minimum of 1.9 million and a maximum of 3.8 million irregular foreign residents in the 27 member states of the European Union (2008). Unlike rules-of-thumb, the aggregated EU estimates indicate a decline in the number of irregular foreign residents between 2002 and 2008. This decline has been influenced by the EU enlargement and legalisation programmes.

  11. Digital IIR Filters Design Using Differential Evolution Algorithm with a Controllable Probabilistic Population Size

    PubMed Central

    Zhu, Wu; Fang, Jian-an; Tang, Yang; Zhang, Wenbing; Du, Wei

    2012-01-01

    Design of a digital infinite-impulse-response (IIR) filter is the process of synthesizing and implementing a recursive filter network so that a set of prescribed excitations results a set of desired responses. However, the error surface of IIR filters is usually non-linear and multi-modal. In order to find the global minimum indeed, an improved differential evolution (DE) is proposed for digital IIR filter design in this paper. The suggested algorithm is a kind of DE variants with a controllable probabilistic (CPDE) population size. It considers the convergence speed and the computational cost simultaneously by nonperiodic partial increasing or declining individuals according to fitness diversities. In addition, we discuss as well some important aspects for IIR filter design, such as the cost function value, the influence of (noise) perturbations, the convergence rate and successful percentage, the parameter measurement, etc. As to the simulation result, it shows that the presented algorithm is viable and comparable. Compared with six existing State-of-the-Art algorithms-based digital IIR filter design methods obtained by numerical experiments, CPDE is relatively more promising and competitive. PMID:22808191

  12. Pond and landscape determinants of Rana dalmatina population sizes in a Romanian rural landscape

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hartel, Tibor; Nemes, Szilárd; Cogălniceanu, Dan; Öllerer, Kinga; Moga, Cosmin Ioan; Lesbarrères, David; Demeter, László

    2009-01-01

    Amphibians are good indicators of human impact, declining steadily worldwide. We explored the relationships between the ponds and nearby landscape parameters and population size of the Agile Frog ( Rana dalmatina), estimated from the number of egg masses, in a cultural landscape within the central section of Târnava Mare Basin, Romania. Forty-three permanent ponds were surveyed in a 2600 km 2 area. The average number of egg masses per pond was 211.13 (SD = 426.41). The egg mass number was significantly and positively related to the emergent aquatic macrophyte cover (its effect peaks at around 50%) and the green connecting corridors between the ponds and forests, and negatively related to the extent of nearby urban areas. The proximity of the forest (positive effect) and the presence of high traffic roads (negative effect) were highly correlated with green corridors and further eliminated from the model due to multicollinearity. Both these variables had significant effects when incorporated in univariate models and multivariate models without green corridors. Since a large part of our study area was currently declared as Natura 2000 site, there is an increased need for management proposals and conservation applications for biodiversity, including amphibians. Rana dalmatina is an important species for monitoring because it is common in the studied area and is suited for short surveys.

  13. Preferential enrichment of large-sized very low density lipoprotein populations with transferred cholesteryl esters

    SciTech Connect

    Eisenberg, S.

    1985-04-01

    The effect of lipid transfer proteins on the exchange and transfer of cholesteryl esters from rat plasma HDL2 to human very low (VLDL) and low density (LDL) lipoprotein populations was studied. The use of a combination of radiochemical and chemical methods allowed separate assessment of (/sup 3/H)cholesteryl ester exchange and of cholesteryl ester transfer. VLDL-I was the preferred acceptor for transferred cholesteryl esters, followed by VLDL-II and VLDL-III. LDL did not acquire cholesteryl esters. The contribution of exchange of (/sup 3/H)cholesteryl esters to total transfer was highest for LDL and decreased in reverse order along the VLDL density range. Inactivation of lecithin: cholesterol acyltransferase (LCAT) and heating the HDL2 for 60 min at 56 degrees C accelerated transfer and exchange of (/sup 3/H)cholesteryl esters. Addition of lipid transfer proteins increased cholesterol esterification in all systems. The data demonstrate that large-sized, triglyceride-rich VLDL particles are preferred acceptors for transferred cholesteryl esters. It is suggested that enrichment of very low density lipoproteins with cholesteryl esters reflects the triglyceride content of the particles.

  14. Community- and population-level changes in diatom size structure in a subarctic lake over the last two centuries

    PubMed Central

    Kerrigan, Elizabeth A.; Irwin, Andrew J.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change over the last two centuries has been associated with significant shifts in diatom community structure in lakes from the high arctic to temperate latitudes. To test the hypotheses that recent climate warming selects for species of smaller size within communities and a decrease in the average size of species within populations, we quantified the size of individual diatom valves from 10 depths in a sediment core covering the last ∼200 years from a pristine subarctic lake. Over the last ∼200 years, changes in the relative abundance of species of different average size and changes in the average valve size of populations of species contribute equally to the changes in community size structure, but are often opposite in sign, compensating for one another and moderating temporal changes in community size structure. In the surface sediments that correspond to the recent decades when air temperatures have warmed, the mean size of valves in the diatom community has significantly decreased due to an increase in the proportion of smaller-sized planktonic diatom species. PMID:26157637

  15. Critical and Demographic Effective Population Size of African Buffalo (Syncerus caffer) in Borgu Sector of Kainji Lake National Park, Nigeria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aremu, O. T.; Onadeko, S. A.; Ola-Adams, B. A.; Inah, E. I.

    Effective population size of African Buffalo (Syncerus caffer) was estimated using Franklin and Frankham model. Buffalo relative abundance was calculated using a 4x4 km transect constructed in each of the identified six vegetation communities in the Park, which were traversed once a month for a period of 24 months. The results revealed that the relative abundance of Buffalo in the Park was 0.372±0.03 groups km-2 consisting of 51±5.827 groups representing 242±16.309 individuals which consist of 30 adult males and 70 adult females representing 12.40 and 28.93%, respectively of the total Buffalo population in the Park which was considered to be the effective breeding population size. The composition of the population structure was significantly different (p< 0.05). The effective population size of Buffalo in the Park was estimated to be 581.34±4.91 which was above the recommended value of 100 which shows that the Buffalo population in the Park was not threatened by demographic stochasticity factors but rather by illegal human activities in the Park. Measures to improve conservation and management of the existing Buffalo population in the Park are also discussed.

  16. Estimating the size of key populations at higher risk of HIV infection: a summary of experiences and lessons presented during a technical meeting on size estimation among key populations in Asian countries

    PubMed Central

    Calleja, Jesus Maria Garcia; Zhao, Jinkou; Reddy, Amala; Seguy, Nicole

    2014-01-01

    Problem Size estimates of key populations at higher risk of HIV exposure are recognized as critical for understanding the trajectory of the HIV epidemic and planning and monitoring an effective response, especially for countries with concentrated and low epidemics such as those in Asia. Context To help countries estimate population sizes of key populations, global guidelines were updated in 2011 to reflect new technical developments and recent field experiences in applying these methods. Action In September 2013, a meeting of programme managers and experts experienced with population size estimates (PSE) for key populations was held for 13 Asian countries. This article summarizes the key results presented, shares practical lessons learnt and reviews the methodological approaches from implementing PSE in 13 countries. Lessons learnt It is important to build capacity to collect, analyse and use PSE data; establish a technical review group; and implement a transparent, well documented process. Countries should adapt global PSE guidelines and maintain operational definitions that are more relevant and useable for country programmes. Development of methods for non-venue-based key populations requires more investment and collaborative efforts between countries and among partners. PMID:25320676

  17. The absolute path command

    2012-05-11

    The ap command traveres all symlinks in a given file, directory, or executable name to identify the final absolute path. It can print just the final path, each intermediate link along with the symlink chan, and the permissions and ownership of each directory component in the final path. It has functionality similar to "which", except that it shows the final path instead of the first path. It is also similar to "pwd", but it canmore » provide the absolute path to a relative directory from the current working directory.« less

  18. The absolute path command

    SciTech Connect

    Moody, A.

    2012-05-11

    The ap command traveres all symlinks in a given file, directory, or executable name to identify the final absolute path. It can print just the final path, each intermediate link along with the symlink chan, and the permissions and ownership of each directory component in the final path. It has functionality similar to "which", except that it shows the final path instead of the first path. It is also similar to "pwd", but it can provide the absolute path to a relative directory from the current working directory.

  19. Potential environmental influences on variation in body size and sexual size dimorphism among Arizona populations of the western diamond-backed rattlesnake (Crotalus atrox)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Amarello, M.; Nowak, E.M.; Taylor, E.N.; Schuett, G.W.; Repp, R.A.; Rosen, P.C.; Hardy, D.L.

    2010-01-01

    Differences in resource availability and quality along environmental gradients are important influences contributing to intraspecific variation in body size, which influences numerous life-history traits. Here, we examined variation in body size and sexual size dimorphism (SSD) in relation to temperature, seasonality, and precipitation among 10 populations located throughout Arizona of the western diamond-backed rattlesnake (Crotalus atrox). Specifically, in our analyses we addressed the following questions: (i) Are adult males larger in cooler, wetter areas? (ii) Does female body size respond differently to environmental variation? (iii) Is seasonality a better predictor of body size variation? (iv) Is SSD positively correlated with increased resources? We demonstrate that male and female C. atrox are larger in body size in cooler (i.e., lower average annual maximum, minimum, and mean temperature) and wetter areas (i.e., higher average annual precipitation, more variable precipitation, and available surface water). Although SSD in C. atrox appeared to be more pronounced in cooler, wetter areas, this relationship did not achieve statistical significance. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

  20. Sociocultural Behavior, Sex-Biased Admixture, and Effective Population Sizes in Central African Pygmies and Non-Pygmies

    PubMed Central

    Verdu, Paul; Becker, Noémie S.A.; Froment, Alain; Georges, Myriam; Grugni, Viola; Quintana-Murci, Lluis; Hombert, Jean-Marie; Van der Veen, Lolke; Le Bomin, Sylvie; Bahuchet, Serge; Heyer, Evelyne; Austerlitz, Frédéric

    2013-01-01

    Sociocultural phenomena, such as exogamy or phylopatry, can largely determine human sex-specific demography. In Central Africa, diverging patterns of sex-specific genetic variation have been observed between mobile hunter–gatherer Pygmies and sedentary agricultural non-Pygmies. However, their sex-specific demography remains largely unknown. Using population genetics and approximate Bayesian computation approaches, we inferred male and female effective population sizes, sex-specific migration, and admixture rates in 23 Central African Pygmy and non-Pygmy populations, genotyped for autosomal, X-linked, Y-linked, and mitochondrial markers. We found much larger effective population sizes and migration rates among non-Pygmy populations than among Pygmies, in agreement with the recent expansions and migrations of non-Pygmies and, conversely, the isolation and stationary demography of Pygmy groups. We found larger effective sizes and migration rates for males than for females for Pygmies, and vice versa for non-Pygmies. Thus, although most Pygmy populations have patrilocal customs, their sex-specific genetic patterns resemble those of matrilocal populations. In fact, our results are consistent with a lower prevalence of polygyny and patrilocality in Pygmies compared with non-Pygmies and a potential female transmission of reproductive success in Pygmies. Finally, Pygmy populations showed variable admixture levels with the non-Pygmies, with often much larger introgression from male than from female lineages. Social discrimination against Pygmies triggering complex movements of spouses in intermarriages can explain these male-biased admixture patterns in a patrilocal context. We show how gender-related sociocultural phenomena can determine highly variable sex-specific demography among populations, and how population genetic approaches contrasting chromosomal types allow inferring detailed human sex-specific demographic history. PMID:23300254

  1. A multi-scale study of Orthoptera species richness and human population size controlling for sampling effort

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cantarello, Elena; Steck, Claude E.; Fontana, Paolo; Fontaneto, Diego; Marini, Lorenzo; Pautasso, Marco

    2010-03-01

    Recent large-scale studies have shown that biodiversity-rich regions also tend to be densely populated areas. The most obvious explanation is that biodiversity and human beings tend to match the distribution of energy availability, environmental stability and/or habitat heterogeneity. However, the species-people correlation can also be an artefact, as more populated regions could show more species because of a more thorough sampling. Few studies have tested this sampling bias hypothesis. Using a newly collated dataset, we studied whether Orthoptera species richness is related to human population size in Italy’s regions (average area 15,000 km2) and provinces (2,900 km2). As expected, the observed number of species increases significantly with increasing human population size for both grain sizes, although the proportion of variance explained is minimal at the provincial level. However, variations in observed Orthoptera species richness are primarily associated with the available number of records, which is in turn well correlated with human population size (at least at the regional level). Estimated Orthoptera species richness (Chao2 and Jackknife) also increases with human population size both for regions and provinces. Both for regions and provinces, this increase is not significant when controlling for variation in area and number of records. Our study confirms the hypothesis that broad-scale human population-biodiversity correlations can in some cases be artefactual. More systematic sampling of less studied taxa such as invertebrates is necessary to ascertain whether biogeographical patterns persist when sampling effort is kept constant or included in models.

  2. Drivers of aggregation in a novel arboreal parasite: the influence of host size and infra-populations.

    PubMed

    Yule, Kirsty J; Burns, Kevin C

    2015-02-01

    As a novel arboreal parasite, New Zealand's largest endemic moth, Aenetus virescens, is a biological oddity. With arguably the most unusual lepidopteran life history on earth, larvae grow to 100mm, spending ∼6 years as wood-boring parasites feeding on host tree phloem. Parasite fitness is a product of host suitability. Parasite discrimination between heterogeneous hosts in fragmented populations shapes parasite aggregation. We investigated whether A. virescens aggregation among hosts occurs randomly (target area effect), or if larvae select hosts based on host quality (ideal free distribution). Using long-term larval growth as an indicator of energy intake, we examined A. virescens aggregation in relation to host size and infra-population. Using a generalised linear model, the relationship between parasite intensity and host tree size was analysed. Reduced major axis regression was used to evaluate A. virescens growth after 1 year. Linear mixed-effects models inferred the influence of parasite infra-population on parasite growth, with host tree as a random factor. Results indicate parasite intensity scaled positively with host size. Furthermore, parasite growth remained consistent throughout ontogeny regardless of host size or parasite infra-population. Aenetus virescens aggregation among hosts violates the ideal free distribution hypothesis, occurring instead as a result of host size, supporting the target area effect.

  3. Interspecific hybridization contributes to high genetic diversity and apparent effective population size in an endemic population of mottled ducks (Anas fulvigula maculosa)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Peters, Jeffrey L.; Sonsthagen, Sarah A.; Lavretsky, Philip; Rezsutek, Michael; Johnson, William P.; McCracken, Kevin G.

    2014-01-01

    Under drift-mutation equilibrium, genetic diversity is expected to be correlated with effective population size (Ne). Changes in population size and gene flow are two important processes that can cause populations to deviate from this expected relationship. In this study, we used DNA sequences from six independent loci to examine the influence of these processes on standing genetic diversity in endemic mottled ducks (Anas fulvigula) and geographically widespread mallards (A. platyrhynchos), two species known to hybridize. Mottled ducks have an estimated census size that is about two orders-of-magnitude smaller than that of mallards, yet these two species have similar levels of genetic diversity, especially at nuclear DNA. Coalescent analyses suggest that a population expansion in the mallard at least partly explains this discrepancy, but the mottled duck harbors higher genetic diversity and apparent N e than expected for its census size even after accounting for a population decline. Incorporating gene flow into the model, however, reduced the estimated Ne of mottled ducks to 33 % of the equilibrium Ne and yielded an estimated Ne consistent with census size. We also examined the utility of these loci to distinguish among mallards, mottled ducks, and their hybrids. Most putatively pure individuals were correctly assigned to species, but the power for detecting hybrids was low. Although hybridization with mallards potentially poses a conservation threat to mottled ducks by creating a risk of extinction by hybridization, introgression of mallard alleles has helped maintain high genetic diversity in mottled ducks and might be important for the adaptability and survival of this species.

  4. Population Structure, Genetic Diversity, Effective Population Size, Demographic History and Regional Connectivity Patterns of the Endangered Dusky Grouper, Epinephelus marginatus (Teleostei: Serranidae), within Malta's Fisheries Management Zone.

    PubMed

    Buchholz-Sørensen, Molly; Vella, Adriana

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this study is to describe the genetic population structure and demographic history of the endangered marine fish, Epinephelus marginatus, within Malta's Fisheries Management Zone for the purpose of localised conservation planning. Epinephelus marginatus is a long-lived, sedentary, reef-associated protogynous hermaphrodite with high commercial and recreational value that is at risk of extinction throughout its global distribution. Based on global trends, population substructuring and gaps in local knowledge this has led to an increased interest in evaluation of local stock. Assessment of Maltese demography was based on historical and contemporary catch landings data whilst genetic population structure and regional connectivity patterns were evaluated by examining 175 individuals collected within the central Mediterranean region between 2002 and 2009 using 14 nuclear microsatellite loci. Demographic stock assessment of Maltese E. marginatus' revealed a 99% decline in catch landings between 1947 and 2009 within the Fisheries Management Zone. A contemporary modest mean size was observed, 3 ± 3 kg, where approximately 17% of the population was juvenile, 68% female/sex-changing and 15% were male with a male-to-female sex ratio of 1:5. Genetic analysis describes the overall population of E. marginatus' within the Fisheries Management Zone as decreasing in size (ƟH = 2.2), which has gone through a significant size reduction in the past (M = 0.41) and consequently shows signs of moderate inbreeding (FIS = 0.10, p < 0.001) with an estimated effective population size of 130 individuals. Results of spatially explicit Bayesian genetic cluster analysis detected two geographically distinct subpopulations within Malta's Fisheries Management Zone and that they are connected to a larger network of E. marginatus' within the Sicily Channel. Results suggest conservation management should be designed to reflect E. marginatus' within Malta's Fisheries Management Zone

  5. Population Structure, Genetic Diversity, Effective Population Size, Demographic History and Regional Connectivity Patterns of the Endangered Dusky Grouper, Epinephelus marginatus (Teleostei: Serranidae), within Malta's Fisheries Management Zone.

    PubMed

    Buchholz-Sørensen, Molly; Vella, Adriana

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this study is to describe the genetic population structure and demographic history of the endangered marine fish, Epinephelus marginatus, within Malta's Fisheries Management Zone for the purpose of localised conservation planning. Epinephelus marginatus is a long-lived, sedentary, reef-associated protogynous hermaphrodite with high commercial and recreational value that is at risk of extinction throughout its global distribution. Based on global trends, population substructuring and gaps in local knowledge this has led to an increased interest in evaluation of local stock. Assessment of Maltese demography was based on historical and contemporary catch landings data whilst genetic population structure and regional connectivity patterns were evaluated by examining 175 individuals collected within the central Mediterranean region between 2002 and 2009 using 14 nuclear microsatellite loci. Demographic stock assessment of Maltese E. marginatus' revealed a 99% decline in catch landings between 1947 and 2009 within the Fisheries Management Zone. A contemporary modest mean size was observed, 3 ± 3 kg, where approximately 17% of the population was juvenile, 68% female/sex-changing and 15% were male with a male-to-female sex ratio of 1:5. Genetic analysis describes the overall population of E. marginatus' within the Fisheries Management Zone as decreasing in size (ƟH = 2.2), which has gone through a significant size reduction in the past (M = 0.41) and consequently shows signs of moderate inbreeding (FIS = 0.10, p < 0.001) with an estimated effective population size of 130 individuals. Results of spatially explicit Bayesian genetic cluster analysis detected two geographically distinct subpopulations within Malta's Fisheries Management Zone and that they are connected to a larger network of E. marginatus' within the Sicily Channel. Results suggest conservation management should be designed to reflect E. marginatus' within Malta's Fisheries Management Zone

  6. Home range size variation in a recovering wolf population: evaluating the effect of environmental, demographic, and social factors.

    PubMed

    Mattisson, Jenny; Sand, Håkan; Wabakken, Petter; Gervasi, Vincenzo; Liberg, Olof; Linnell, John D C; Rauset, Geir Rune; Pedersen, Hans Christian

    2013-11-01

    Home range size in mammals is a key ecological trait and an important parameter in conservation planning, and has been shown to be influenced by ecological, demographic and social factors in animal populations. Information on space requirements is especially important for carnivore species which range over very large areas and often come into direct conflict with human interest. We used long-term telemetry-location data from a recovering wolf population in Scandinavia to investigate variation in home range size in relation to environmental and social characteristics of the different packs. Wolves showed considerable variation in home range size, which ranged from 259 to 1,676 km(2). Although wolf density increased fourfold during the study period, we found no evidence that intraspecific competition influenced range size. Local variation in moose density, which was the main prey for most packs, did not influence wolf home range size. Home ranges increased with latitude and elevation and decreased with increased roe deer density. Although prey biomass alone did not influence range size, our data suggest that there is a correlation between habitat characteristics, choice of prey species and possible hunting success, which currently combine to shape home range size in Scandinavian wolves. PMID:23636461

  7. Changes in size and trends of North American sea duck populations associated with North Pacific oceanic regime shifts

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Flint, Paul L.

    2013-01-01

    Broad-scale multi-species declines in populations of North American sea ducks for unknown reasons is cause for management concern. Oceanic regime shifts have been associated with rapid changes in ecosystem structure of the North Pacific and Bering Sea. However, relatively little is known about potential effects of these changes in oceanic conditions on marine bird populations at broad scales. I examined changes in North American breeding populations of sea ducks from 1957 to 2011 in relation to potential oceanic regime shifts in the North Pacific in 1977, 1989, and 1998. There was strong support for population-level effects of regime shifts in 1977 and 1989, but little support for an effect of the 1998 shift. The continental-level effects of these regime shifts differed across species groups and time. Based on patterns of sea duck population dynamics associated with regime shifts, it is unclear if the mechanism of change relates to survival or reproduction. Results of this analysis support the hypothesis that population size and trends of North American sea ducks are strongly influenced by oceanic conditions. The perceived population declines appear to have halted >20 years ago, and populations have been relatively stable or increasing since that time. Given these results, we should reasonably expect dramatic changes in sea duck population status and trends with future oceanic regime shifts.

  8. Assessment of parental contribution and effective population size from a 3×3 diallel cross of clam Meretrix meretrix

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dai, Ping; Wang, Hongxia; Liu, Baozhong

    2014-03-01

    Unbalanced parental contribution and small effective population size ( N e) are common issues during the artificial breeding of marine bivalves. The impact of hatchery-spawning practices on parental contribution, effective population size, the N e/ N ratio, and genetic diversity are largely unknown. To address this, we conducted a parentage analysis on a complete 3×3 diallel cross of clam M eretrix meretrix using eight microsatellite markers. The genetic diversity of the parents was higher than that of their respective offspring in most crosses (8/9). Sires or dams from the same family contributed unequally to the pool of offspring from a particular cross, and the same parent clam exhibited large variation in parental contribution among different crosses. The variance in male contribution was higher than that of the female contribution in most crosses, suggesting that male contribution was more skewed than for females. The N e/ N ratio for nine crosses ranged from 0.58 to 0.86. There was no linear relationship between the sex ratio and the N e/ N ratio ( P > 0.05). Moreover, a sex ratio closer to one-to-one does not necessarily mean a larger effective population size. A solution to small effective population size in commercial breeding programs is increasing broodstock numbers and attempting to maintain a balanced sex ratio.

  9. A Classroom Investigation of the Effect of Population Size and Income on Success in the London 2012 Olympics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carter, Nancy; Felton, Nathan; Schwertman, Neil

    2014-01-01

    Engaging students in active learning can enhance their understanding and appreciation of a subject such as statistics. Classroom activities and projects help to engage students and further promote the learning process. In this paper, an activity investigating the influence of population size and wealth on the medal counts from the 2012 London…

  10. Big Feet: Assessing the Current and Future Impact of Population Size on a Country's Ecological Footprint

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hogg, R. S.; Takaro, T.; Miller, C.; Hogg, E.; Anema, A.; Gislason, M.; Parkes, M.

    2015-12-01

    Background: Ecological footprints assess the land and water a population needs to procure its resources and handle its waste. Measures derived from these footprints look at a population's ecological overshoot rather than weighting the population to its footprint. The aim of this study was to examine the latter approach by determining what the current and future weighted world population, by income gradient, would be if everyone lived within the boundary of 1.8 hectares per person. Methods: Country-specific ecological footprints and populations for 2007 were obtained from the Global Footprint Network (www.footprintnetwork.org); and projected populations were collected from US Census Bureau (www.census.gov). Footprint growth to 2050 was based on a business as usual approach developed by Kitzes et al. in Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B (2008). Weighted population estimates were derived by multiplying actual population by the ratio of the country's footprint to overall boundary of 1.8 hectares per person. Results: The weighted global population increased by 2.4 billion people (37%) in 2007 based on our adjustment. High and middle-income country populations increased, by 242% and 10%, respectively, while low-income country populations decreased by 33%. The weighed global population in 2050 increased by 10.1 billion with the majority of this growth occurring in high-income countries -- 437% versus 67% and 9% respectively for medium and low-income countries. Conclusions: Our study showed that current and future global weighted demographic and ecological impact would be felt mainly in high-income countries even though actual population growth would occur mainly in low and middle-income countries.

  11. A possible explanation for the population size discrepancy in tuna (genus Thunnus) estimated from mitochondrial DNA and microsatellite data.

    PubMed

    Qiu, Fan; Kitchen, Andrew; Beerli, Peter; Miyamoto, Michael M

    2013-02-01

    A recent study using both mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) and microsatellite data reported on a population size discrepancy in the eastern tiger salamander where the effective population size (N(e)) estimate of the former exceeded that of the latter. That study suggested, among other hypotheses, that homoplasy of microsatellite alleles is responsible for the discrepancy. In this investigation, we report 10 new cases of a similar discrepancy in five species of tuna. These cases derive from our Bayesian inferences using data from Pacific Bluefin Tuna (Thunnus orientalis) and Yellowfin Tuna (Thunnus albacares), as well as from published estimates of genetic diversity for additional populations of Yellowfin Tuna and three other tuna species. Phylogenetic character analyses of inferred genealogies of Pacific Bluefin and Yellowfin Tuna reveal similar reduced levels of mtDNA and microsatellite homoplasy. Thus, the discrepancy between inferred population sizes from mtDNA and microsatellite data in tuna is most likely not an artifact of the chosen mutation models used in the microsatellite analyses, but may reflect behavioral differences between the sexes such as female-biased philopatry and male-biased dispersal. This explanation now warrants critical testing with more local populations of tuna and with other animal and plant groups that have different life histories.

  12. A possible explanation for the population size discrepancy in tuna (genus Thunnus) estimated from mitochondrial DNA and microsatellite data.

    PubMed

    Qiu, Fan; Kitchen, Andrew; Beerli, Peter; Miyamoto, Michael M

    2013-02-01

    A recent study using both mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) and microsatellite data reported on a population size discrepancy in the eastern tiger salamander where the effective population size (N(e)) estimate of the former exceeded that of the latter. That study suggested, among other hypotheses, that homoplasy of microsatellite alleles is responsible for the discrepancy. In this investigation, we report 10 new cases of a similar discrepancy in five species of tuna. These cases derive from our Bayesian inferences using data from Pacific Bluefin Tuna (Thunnus orientalis) and Yellowfin Tuna (Thunnus albacares), as well as from published estimates of genetic diversity for additional populations of Yellowfin Tuna and three other tuna species. Phylogenetic character analyses of inferred genealogies of Pacific Bluefin and Yellowfin Tuna reveal similar reduced levels of mtDNA and microsatellite homoplasy. Thus, the discrepancy between inferred population sizes from mtDNA and microsatellite data in tuna is most likely not an artifact of the chosen mutation models used in the microsatellite analyses, but may reflect behavioral differences between the sexes such as female-biased philopatry and male-biased dispersal. This explanation now warrants critical testing with more local populations of tuna and with other animal and plant groups that have different life histories. PMID:22579759

  13. Selection and reduced population size cannot explain higher amounts of Neandertal ancestry in East Asian than in European human populations.

    PubMed

    Kim, Bernard Y; Lohmueller, Kirk E

    2015-03-01

    It has been hypothesized that the greater proportion of Neandertal ancestry in East Asians than in Europeans is due to the fact that purifying selection is less effective at removing weakly deleterious Neandertal alleles from East Asian populations. Using simulations of a broad range of models of selection and demography, we have shown that this hypothesis cannot account for the higher proportion of Neandertal ancestry in East Asians than in Europeans. Instead, more complex demographic scenarios, most likely involving multiple pulses of Neandertal admixture, are required to explain the data.

  14. Selection and Reduced Population Size Cannot Explain Higher Amounts of Neandertal Ancestry in East Asian than in European Human Populations

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Bernard Y.; Lohmueller, Kirk E.

    2015-01-01

    It has been hypothesized that the greater proportion of Neandertal ancestry in East Asians than in Europeans is due to the fact that purifying selection is less effective at removing weakly deleterious Neandertal alleles from East Asian populations. Using simulations of a broad range of models of selection and demography, we have shown that this hypothesis cannot account for the higher proportion of Neandertal ancestry in East Asians than in Europeans. Instead, more complex demographic scenarios, most likely involving multiple pulses of Neandertal admixture, are required to explain the data. PMID:25683122

  15. The impact of Quaternary climate oscillations on divergence times and historical population sizes in Thylamys opossums from the Andes.

    PubMed

    Giarla, Thomas C; Jansa, Sharon A

    2015-05-01

    Climate oscillations during the Quaternary altered the distributions of terrestrial animals at a global scale. In mountainous regions, temperature fluctuations may have led to shifts in range size and population size as species tracked their shifting habitats upslope or downslope. This creates the potential for both allopatric speciation and population size fluctuations, as species are either constrained to smaller patches of habitat at higher elevations or able to expand into broader areas at higher latitudes. We considered the impact of climate oscillations on three pairs of marsupial species from the Andes (Thylamys opossums) by inferring divergence times and demographic changes. We compare four different divergence dating approaches, using anywhere from one to 26 loci. Each pair comprises a northern (tropical) lineage and a southern (subtropical to temperate) lineage. We predicted that divergences would have occurred during the last interglacial (LIG) period approximately 125 000 years ago and that population sizes for northern and southern lineages would either contract or expand, respectively. Our results suggest that all three north-south pairs diverged in the late Pleistocene during or slightly after the LIG. The three northern lineages showed no signs of population expansion, whereas two southern lineages exhibited dramatic, recent expansions. We attribute the difference in responses between tropical and subtropical lineages to the availability of 'montane-like' habitats at lower elevations in regions at higher latitudes. We conclude that climate oscillations of the late Quaternary had a powerful impact on the evolutionary history of some of these species, both promoting speciation and leading to significant population size shifts.

  16. Floral display size, conspecific density and florivory affect fruit set in natural populations of Phlox hirsuta, an endangered species

    PubMed Central

    Ruane, Lauren G.; Rotzin, Andrew T.; Congleton, Philip H.

    2014-01-01

    Background and Aims Natural variation in fruit and seed set may be explained by factors that affect the composition of pollen grains on stigmas. Self-incompatible species require compatible outcross pollen grains to produce seeds. The siring success of outcross pollen grains, however, can be hindered if self (or other incompatible) pollen grains co-occur on stigmas. This study identifies factors that determine fruit set in Phlox hirsuta, a self-sterile endangered species that is prone to self-pollination, and its associated fitness costs. Methods Multiple linear regressions were used to identify factors that explain variation in percentage fruit set within three of the five known populations of this endangered species. Florivorous beetle density, petal colour, floral display size, local conspecific density and pre-dispersal seed predation were quantified and their effects on the ability of flowers to produce fruits were assessed. Key Results In all three populations, percentage fruit set decreased as florivorous beetle density increased and as floral display size increased. The effect of floral display size on fruit set, however, often depended on the density of nearby conspecific plants. High local conspecific densities offset – even reversed – the negative effects of floral display size on percentage fruit set. Seed predation by mammals decreased fruit set in one population. Conclusions The results indicate that seed production in P. hirsuta can be maximized by selectively augmenting populations in areas containing isolated large plants, by reducing the population sizes of florivorous beetles and by excluding mammals that consume unripe fruits. PMID:24557879

  17. Wastewater analysis to monitor use of caffeine and nicotine and evaluation of their metabolites as biomarkers for population size assessment.

    PubMed

    Senta, Ivan; Gracia-Lor, Emma; Borsotti, Andrea; Zuccato, Ettore; Castiglioni, Sara

    2015-05-01

    The use of caffeine, nicotine and some major metabolites was investigated by wastewater analysis in 13 sewage treatment plants (STPs) across Italy, and their suitability was tested as qualitative and quantitative biomarkers for assessing population size and dynamics. A specific analytical method based on mass spectrometry was developed and validated in raw urban wastewater, and included two caffeine metabolites, 1-methylxanthine and 7-methylxanthine, never reported in wastewater before. All these compounds were found widely at the μg/L level. Mass loads, calculated by multiplying concentrations by the wastewater daily flow rate and normalized to the population served by each plant, were used to compare the profiles from different cities. Some regional differences were observed in the mass loads, especially for nicotine metabolites, which were significantly higher in the south than in the center and north of Italy, reflecting smoking prevalences from population surveys. There were no significant weekly trends, although the mean mass loads of caffeine and its metabolites were slightly lower during the weekend. Most caffeine and nicotine metabolites fulfilled the requirements for an ideal biomarker for the assessment of population size, i.e. being easily detectable in wastewater, stable in sewage and during sampling, and reflecting human metabolism. Nicotine metabolites were tested as quantitative biomarkers to estimate population size and the results agreed well with census data. Caffeine and its metabolites were confirmed as good qualitative biomarkers, but additional information is needed on the caffeine metabolism in relation to the multiple sources of its main metabolites. This exploratory study opens the way to the routine use of nicotine metabolites for estimating population size and dynamics.

  18. Developing accurate survey methods for estimating population sizes and trends of the critically endangered Nihoa Millerbird and Nihoa Finch.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gorresen, P. Marcos; Camp, Richard J.; Brinck, Kevin W.; Farmer, Chris

    2012-01-01

    Point-transect surveys indicated that millerbirds were more abundant than shown by the striptransect method, and were estimated at 802 birds in 2010 (95%CI = 652 – 964) and 704 birds in 2011 (95%CI = 579 – 837). Point-transect surveys yielded population estimates with improved precision which will permit trends to be detected in shorter time periods and with greater statistical power than is available from strip-transect survey methods. Mean finch population estimates and associated uncertainty were not markedly different among the three survey methods, but the performance of models used to estimate density and population size are expected to improve as the data from additional surveys are incorporated. Using the pointtransect survey, the mean finch population size was estimated at 2,917 birds in 2010 (95%CI = 2,037 – 3,965) and 2,461 birds in 2011 (95%CI = 1,682 – 3,348). Preliminary testing of the line-transect method in 2011 showed that it would not generate sufficient detections to effectively model bird density, and consequently, relatively precise population size estimates. Both species were fairly evenly distributed across Nihoa and appear to occur in all or nearly all available habitat. The time expended and area traversed by observers was similar among survey methods; however, point-transect surveys do not require that observers walk a straight transect line, thereby allowing them to avoid culturally or biologically sensitive areas and minimize the adverse effects of recurrent travel to any particular area. In general, pointtransect surveys detect more birds than strip-survey methods, thereby improving precision and resulting population size and trend estimation. The method is also better suited for the steep and uneven terrain of Nihoa

  19. Completeness of the dog registry and estimation of the dog population size in a densely populated area of Rome.

    PubMed

    Caminiti, Antonino; Sala, Marcello; Panetta, Valentina; Battisti, Sabrina; Meoli, Roberta; Rombolà, Pasquale; Spallucci, Valentina; Eleni, Claudia; Scaramozzino, Paola

    2014-01-01

    In most European countries, registration and identification of dogs is compulsory. In Italy, the national dog registry is composed of regional dog registries. Although dog registries have been established for many years, the issue related to completeness of data has not been addressed so far. The objective of this study was twofold: first to assess the completeness of data of the dog registry through telephone interview of a sample of dog owners drawn from the dog registry, then to estimate the total owned dog population in 4 boroughs of Rome. For the second objective, a capture-recapture method was applied using data from the dog registry and data from a face-to-face questionnaire submitted to people waiting in the sitting room of 5 points of access for booking and payment of primary and specialist care. Different scenarios are proposed to verify the assumptions of the estimation procedure and potential biases are discussed. The completeness of data of the dog registry was 88.9% (95% CI: 85.8-91.9%) and the owned-dog population was estimated at 26,244 dogs (95% CI: 24,110-28,383). The dog registry is an important source of information especially when it is properly updated and completeness of data is known.

  20. Heterozygosity predicts clutch and egg size but not plasticity in a house sparrow population with no evidence of inbreeding.

    PubMed

    Wetzel, Daniel P; Stewart, Ian R K; Westneat, David F

    2012-01-01

    We investigated the link between heterozygosity and the reaction norm attributes of reproductive performance in female house sparrows (Passer domesticus). We collected data on clutch size, egg size, hatching success and nestling survival in 2816 nesting attempts made by 791 marked individuals over a 16-year period. Pedigree analysis revealed no evidence of inbreeding. Neither parent-offspring regression nor an animal model revealed significant heritability in clutch or egg size. We selected 42 females that laid at least seven clutches at our study site and used a survey of 21 autosomal microsatellite loci to estimate heterozygosity for each female. We controlled for phenotypic plasticity and found that both clutch and egg size showed significant positive correlations with heterozygosity. We found no evidence that heterozygosity influenced the slope of individual reaction norms. Further analysis suggested that clutch size was affected by heterozygosity across the genome, but egg size had more complex relationships, with evidence favouring the influence of multiple loci. Given the apparent lack of inbreeding and large population size, our results suggest ass