Comparison of INAR(1)-Poisson model and Markov prediction model in forecasting the number of DHF patients in west java Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahdika, Atina; Lusiyana, Novyan

2017-02-01

World Health Organization (WHO) noted Indonesia as the country with the highest dengue (DHF) cases in Southeast Asia. There are no vaccine and specific treatment for DHF. One of the efforts which can be done by both government and resident is doing a prevention action. In statistics, there are some methods to predict the number of DHF cases to be used as the reference to prevent the DHF cases. In this paper, a discrete time series model, INAR(1)-Poisson model in specific, and Markov prediction model are used to predict the number of DHF patients in West Java Indonesia. The result shows that MPM is the best model since it has the smallest value of MAE (mean absolute error) and MAPE (mean absolute percentage error).

A Sensor Dynamic Measurement Error Prediction Model Based on NAPSO-SVM.

PubMed

Jiang, Minlan; Jiang, Lan; Jiang, Dingde; Li, Fei; Song, Houbing

2018-01-15

Dynamic measurement error correction is an effective way to improve sensor precision. Dynamic measurement error prediction is an important part of error correction, and support vector machine (SVM) is often used for predicting the dynamic measurement errors of sensors. Traditionally, the SVM parameters were always set manually, which cannot ensure the model's performance. In this paper, a SVM method based on an improved particle swarm optimization (NAPSO) is proposed to predict the dynamic measurement errors of sensors. Natural selection and simulated annealing are added in the PSO to raise the ability to avoid local optima. To verify the performance of NAPSO-SVM, three types of algorithms are selected to optimize the SVM's parameters: the particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSO), the improved PSO optimization algorithm (NAPSO), and the glowworm swarm optimization (GSO). The dynamic measurement error data of two sensors are applied as the test data. The root mean squared error and mean absolute percentage error are employed to evaluate the prediction models' performances. The experimental results show that among the three tested algorithms the NAPSO-SVM method has a better prediction precision and a less prediction errors, and it is an effective method for predicting the dynamic measurement errors of sensors.

Modelling and Predicting Backstroke Start Performance Using Non-Linear and Linear Models

PubMed Central

de Jesus, Karla; Ayala, Helon V. H.; de Jesus, Kelly; Coelho, Leandro dos S.; Medeiros, Alexandre I.A.; Abraldes, José A.; Vaz, Mário A.P.; Fernandes, Ricardo J.; Vilas-Boas, João Paulo

2018-01-01

Abstract Our aim was to compare non-linear and linear mathematical model responses for backstroke start performance prediction. Ten swimmers randomly completed eight 15 m backstroke starts with feet over the wedge, four with hands on the highest horizontal and four on the vertical handgrip. Swimmers were videotaped using a dual media camera set-up, with the starts being performed over an instrumented block with four force plates. Artificial neural networks were applied to predict 5 m start time using kinematic and kinetic variables and to determine the accuracy of the mean absolute percentage error. Artificial neural networks predicted start time more robustly than the linear model with respect to changing training to the validation dataset for the vertical handgrip (3.95 ± 1.67 vs. 5.92 ± 3.27%). Artificial neural networks obtained a smaller mean absolute percentage error than the linear model in the horizontal (0.43 ± 0.19 vs. 0.98 ± 0.19%) and vertical handgrip (0.45 ± 0.19 vs. 1.38 ± 0.30%) using all input data. The best artificial neural network validation revealed a smaller mean absolute error than the linear model for the horizontal (0.007 vs. 0.04 s) and vertical handgrip (0.01 vs. 0.03 s). Artificial neural networks should be used for backstroke 5 m start time prediction due to the quite small differences among the elite level performances. PMID:29599857

Reliability study of biometrics "do not contact" in myopia.

PubMed

Migliorini, R; Fratipietro, M; Comberiati, A M; Pattavina, L; Arrico, L

The aim of the study is a comparison between the actually achieved after surgery condition versus the expected refractive condition of the eye as calculated via a biometer. The study was conducted in a random group of 38 eyes of patients undergoing surgery by phacoemulsification. The mean absolute error was calculated between the predicted values from the measurements with the optical biometer and those obtained in the post-operative error which was at around 0.47% Our study shows results not far from those reported in the literature, and in relation, to the mean absolute error is among the lowest values at 0.47 ± 0.11 SEM.

Effect of trabeculectomy on the accuracy of intraocular lens calculations in patients with open-angle glaucoma.

PubMed

Bae, Hyoung Won; Lee, Yun Ha; Kim, Do Wook; Lee, Taekjune; Hong, Samin; Seong, Gong Je; Kim, Chan Yun

2016-08-01

The objective of the study is to examine the effect of trabeculectomy on intraocular lens power calculations in patients with open-angle glaucoma (OAG) undergoing cataract surgery. The design is retrospective data analysis. There are a total of 55 eyes of 55 patients with OAG who had a cataract surgery alone or in combination with trabeculectomy. We classified OAG subjects into the following groups based on surgical history: only cataract surgery (OC group), cataract surgery after prior trabeculectomy (CAT group), and cataract surgery performed in combination with trabeculectomy (CCT group). Differences between actual and predicted postoperative refractive error. Mean error (ME, difference between postoperative and predicted SE) in the CCT group was significantly lower (towards myopia) than that of the OC group (P = 0.008). Additionally, mean absolute error (MAE, absolute value of ME) in the CAT group was significantly greater than in the OC group (P = 0.006). Using linear mixed models, the ME calculated with the SRK II formula was more accurate than the ME predicted by the SRK T formula in the CAT (P = 0.032) and CCT (P = 0.035) groups. The intraocular lens power prediction accuracy was lower in the CAT and CCT groups than in the OC group. The prediction error was greater in the CAT group than in the OC group, and the direction of the prediction error tended to be towards myopia in the CCT group. The SRK II formula may be more accurate in predicting residual refractive error in the CAT and CCT groups. © 2016 Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Ophthalmologists.

Seasonality and Trend Forecasting of Tuberculosis Prevalence Data in Eastern Cape, South Africa, Using a Hybrid Model.

PubMed

Azeez, Adeboye; Obaromi, Davies; Odeyemi, Akinwumi; Ndege, James; Muntabayi, Ruffin

2016-07-26

Tuberculosis (TB) is a deadly infectious disease caused by Mycobacteria tuberculosis. Tuberculosis as a chronic and highly infectious disease is prevalent in almost every part of the globe. More than 95% of TB mortality occurs in low/middle income countries. In 2014, approximately 10 million people were diagnosed with active TB and two million died from the disease. In this study, our aim is to compare the predictive powers of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and neural network auto-regression (SARIMA-NNAR) models of TB incidence and analyse its seasonality in South Africa. TB incidence cases data from January 2010 to December 2015 were extracted from the Eastern Cape Health facility report of the electronic Tuberculosis Register (ERT.Net). A SARIMA model and a combined model of SARIMA model and a neural network auto-regression (SARIMA-NNAR) model were used in analysing and predicting the TB data from 2010 to 2015. Simulation performance parameters of mean square error (MSE), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean percent error (MPE), mean absolute scaled error (MASE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were applied to assess the better performance of prediction between the models. Though practically, both models could predict TB incidence, the combined model displayed better performance. For the combined model, the Akaike information criterion (AIC), second-order AIC (AICc) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) are 288.56, 308.31 and 299.09 respectively, which were lower than the SARIMA model with corresponding values of 329.02, 327.20 and 341.99, respectively. The seasonality trend of TB incidence was forecast to have a slightly increased seasonal TB incidence trend from the SARIMA-NNAR model compared to the single model. The combined model indicated a better TB incidence forecasting with a lower AICc. The model also indicates the need for resolute intervention to reduce infectious disease transmission with co-infection with HIV and other concomitant diseases, and also at festival peak periods.

Application of the hybrid ANFIS models for long term wind power density prediction with extrapolation capability.

PubMed

Hossain, Monowar; Mekhilef, Saad; Afifi, Firdaus; Halabi, Laith M; Olatomiwa, Lanre; Seyedmahmoudian, Mehdi; Horan, Ben; Stojcevski, Alex

2018-01-01

In this paper, the suitability and performance of ANFIS (adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system), ANFIS-PSO (particle swarm optimization), ANFIS-GA (genetic algorithm) and ANFIS-DE (differential evolution) has been investigated for the prediction of monthly and weekly wind power density (WPD) of four different locations named Mersing, Kuala Terengganu, Pulau Langkawi and Bayan Lepas all in Malaysia. For this aim, standalone ANFIS, ANFIS-PSO, ANFIS-GA and ANFIS-DE prediction algorithm are developed in MATLAB platform. The performance of the proposed hybrid ANFIS models is determined by computing different statistical parameters such as mean absolute bias error (MABE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), root mean square error (RMSE) and coefficient of determination (R2). The results obtained from ANFIS-PSO and ANFIS-GA enjoy higher performance and accuracy than other models, and they can be suggested for practical application to predict monthly and weekly mean wind power density. Besides, the capability of the proposed hybrid ANFIS models is examined to predict the wind data for the locations where measured wind data are not available, and the results are compared with the measured wind data from nearby stations.

Application of the hybrid ANFIS models for long term wind power density prediction with extrapolation capability

PubMed Central

Mekhilef, Saad; Afifi, Firdaus; Halabi, Laith M.; Olatomiwa, Lanre; Seyedmahmoudian, Mehdi; Stojcevski, Alex

2018-01-01

In this paper, the suitability and performance of ANFIS (adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system), ANFIS-PSO (particle swarm optimization), ANFIS-GA (genetic algorithm) and ANFIS-DE (differential evolution) has been investigated for the prediction of monthly and weekly wind power density (WPD) of four different locations named Mersing, Kuala Terengganu, Pulau Langkawi and Bayan Lepas all in Malaysia. For this aim, standalone ANFIS, ANFIS-PSO, ANFIS-GA and ANFIS-DE prediction algorithm are developed in MATLAB platform. The performance of the proposed hybrid ANFIS models is determined by computing different statistical parameters such as mean absolute bias error (MABE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), root mean square error (RMSE) and coefficient of determination (R2). The results obtained from ANFIS-PSO and ANFIS-GA enjoy higher performance and accuracy than other models, and they can be suggested for practical application to predict monthly and weekly mean wind power density. Besides, the capability of the proposed hybrid ANFIS models is examined to predict the wind data for the locations where measured wind data are not available, and the results are compared with the measured wind data from nearby stations. PMID:29702645

Automated body weight prediction of dairy cows using 3-dimensional vision.

PubMed

Song, X; Bokkers, E A M; van der Tol, P P J; Groot Koerkamp, P W G; van Mourik, S

2018-05-01

The objectives of this study were to quantify the error of body weight prediction using automatically measured morphological traits in a 3-dimensional (3-D) vision system and to assess the influence of various sources of uncertainty on body weight prediction. In this case study, an image acquisition setup was created in a cow selection box equipped with a top-view 3-D camera. Morphological traits of hip height, hip width, and rump length were automatically extracted from the raw 3-D images taken of the rump area of dairy cows (n = 30). These traits combined with days in milk, age, and parity were used in multiple linear regression models to predict body weight. To find the best prediction model, an exhaustive feature selection algorithm was used to build intermediate models (n = 63). Each model was validated by leave-one-out cross-validation, giving the root mean square error and mean absolute percentage error. The model consisting of hip width (measurement variability of 0.006 m), days in milk, and parity was the best model, with the lowest errors of 41.2 kg of root mean square error and 5.2% mean absolute percentage error. Our integrated system, including the image acquisition setup, image analysis, and the best prediction model, predicted the body weights with a performance similar to that achieved using semi-automated or manual methods. Moreover, the variability of our simplified morphological trait measurement showed a negligible contribution to the uncertainty of body weight prediction. We suggest that dairy cow body weight prediction can be improved by incorporating more predictive morphological traits and by improving the prediction model structure. The Authors. Published by FASS Inc. and Elsevier Inc. on behalf of the American Dairy Science Association®. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/).

A Sensor Dynamic Measurement Error Prediction Model Based on NAPSO-SVM

PubMed Central

Jiang, Minlan; Jiang, Lan; Jiang, Dingde; Li, Fei

2018-01-01

Dynamic measurement error correction is an effective way to improve sensor precision. Dynamic measurement error prediction is an important part of error correction, and support vector machine (SVM) is often used for predicting the dynamic measurement errors of sensors. Traditionally, the SVM parameters were always set manually, which cannot ensure the model’s performance. In this paper, a SVM method based on an improved particle swarm optimization (NAPSO) is proposed to predict the dynamic measurement errors of sensors. Natural selection and simulated annealing are added in the PSO to raise the ability to avoid local optima. To verify the performance of NAPSO-SVM, three types of algorithms are selected to optimize the SVM’s parameters: the particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSO), the improved PSO optimization algorithm (NAPSO), and the glowworm swarm optimization (GSO). The dynamic measurement error data of two sensors are applied as the test data. The root mean squared error and mean absolute percentage error are employed to evaluate the prediction models’ performances. The experimental results show that among the three tested algorithms the NAPSO-SVM method has a better prediction precision and a less prediction errors, and it is an effective method for predicting the dynamic measurement errors of sensors. PMID:29342942

Assessing and Ensuring GOES-R Magnetometer Accuracy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carter, Delano R.; Todirita, Monica; Kronenwetter, Jeffrey; Chu, Donald

2016-01-01

The GOES-R magnetometer subsystem accuracy requirement is 1.7 nanoteslas (nT). During quiet times (100 nT), accuracy is defined as absolute mean plus 3 sigma. During storms (300 nT), accuracy is defined as absolute mean plus 2 sigma. Error comes both from outside the magnetometers, e.g. spacecraft fields and misalignments, as well as inside, e.g. zero offset and scale factor errors. Because zero offset and scale factor drift over time, it will be necessary to perform annual calibration maneuvers. To predict performance before launch, we have used Monte Carlo simulations and covariance analysis. Both behave as expected, and their accuracy predictions agree within 30%. With the proposed calibration regimen, both suggest that the GOES-R magnetometer subsystem will meet its accuracy requirements.

Knowing what to expect, forecasting monthly emergency department visits: A time-series analysis.

PubMed

Bergs, Jochen; Heerinckx, Philipe; Verelst, Sandra

2014-04-01

To evaluate an automatic forecasting algorithm in order to predict the number of monthly emergency department (ED) visits one year ahead. We collected retrospective data of the number of monthly visiting patients for a 6-year period (2005-2011) from 4 Belgian Hospitals. We used an automated exponential smoothing approach to predict monthly visits during the year 2011 based on the first 5 years of the dataset. Several in- and post-sample forecasting accuracy measures were calculated. The automatic forecasting algorithm was able to predict monthly visits with a mean absolute percentage error ranging from 2.64% to 4.8%, indicating an accurate prediction. The mean absolute scaled error ranged from 0.53 to 0.68 indicating that, on average, the forecast was better compared with in-sample one-step forecast from the naïve method. The applied automated exponential smoothing approach provided useful predictions of the number of monthly visits a year in advance. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Achievable accuracy of hip screw holding power estimation by insertion torque measurement.

PubMed

Erani, Paolo; Baleani, Massimiliano

2018-02-01

To ensure stability of proximal femoral fractures, the hip screw must firmly engage into the femoral head. Some studies suggested that screw holding power into trabecular bone could be evaluated, intraoperatively, through measurement of screw insertion torque. However, those studies used synthetic bone, instead of trabecular bone, as host material or they did not evaluate accuracy of predictions. We determined prediction accuracy, also assessing the impact of screw design and host material. We measured, under highly-repeatable experimental conditions, disregarding clinical procedure complexities, insertion torque and pullout strength of four screw designs, both in 120 synthetic and 80 trabecular bone specimens of variable density. For both host materials, we calculated the root-mean-square error and the mean-absolute-percentage error of predictions based on the best fitting model of torque-pullout data, in both single-screw and merged dataset. Predictions based on screw-specific regression models were the most accurate. Host material impacts on prediction accuracy: the replacement of synthetic with trabecular bone decreased both root-mean-square errors, from 0.54 ÷ 0.76 kN to 0.21 ÷ 0.40 kN, and mean-absolute-percentage errors, from 14 ÷ 21% to 10 ÷ 12%. However, holding power predicted on low insertion torque remained inaccurate, with errors up to 40% for torques below 1 Nm. In poor-quality trabecular bone, tissue inhomogeneities likely affect pullout strength and insertion torque to different extents, limiting the predictive power of the latter. This bias decreases when the screw engages good-quality bone. Under this condition, predictions become more accurate although this result must be confirmed by close in-vitro simulation of the clinical procedure. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Morley, Steven

The PyForecastTools package provides Python routines for calculating metrics for model validation, forecast verification and model comparison. For continuous predictands the package provides functions for calculating bias (mean error, mean percentage error, median log accuracy, symmetric signed bias), and for calculating accuracy (mean squared error, mean absolute error, mean absolute scaled error, normalized RMSE, median symmetric accuracy). Convenience routines to calculate the component parts (e.g. forecast error, scaled error) of each metric are also provided. To compare models the package provides: generic skill score; percent better. Robust measures of scale including median absolute deviation, robust standard deviation, robust coefficient ofmore » variation and the Sn estimator are all provided by the package. Finally, the package implements Python classes for NxN contingency tables. In the case of a multi-class prediction, accuracy and skill metrics such as proportion correct and the Heidke and Peirce skill scores are provided as object methods. The special case of a 2x2 contingency table inherits from the NxN class and provides many additional metrics for binary classification: probability of detection, probability of false detection, false alarm ration, threat score, equitable threat score, bias. Confidence intervals for many of these quantities can be calculated using either the Wald method or Agresti-Coull intervals.« less

A new approach to measure visual field progression in glaucoma patients using variational bayes linear regression.

PubMed

Murata, Hiroshi; Araie, Makoto; Asaoka, Ryo

2014-11-20

We generated a variational Bayes model to predict visual field (VF) progression in glaucoma patients. This retrospective study included VF series from 911 eyes of 547 glaucoma patients as test data, and VF series from 5049 eyes of 2858 glaucoma patients as training data. Using training data, variational Bayes linear regression (VBLR) was created to predict VF progression. The performance of VBLR was compared against ordinary least-squares linear regression (OLSLR) by predicting VFs in the test dataset. The total deviation (TD) values of test patients' 11th VFs were predicted using TD values from their second to 10th VFs (VF2-10), the root mean squared error (RMSE) associated with each approach then was calculated. Similarly, mean TD (mTD) of test patients' 11th VFs was predicted using VBLR and OLSLR, and the absolute prediction errors compared. The RMSE resulting from VBLR averaged 3.9 ± 2.1 (SD) and 4.9 ± 2.6 dB for prediction based on the second to 10th VFs (VF2-10) and the second to fourth VFs (VF2-4), respectively. The RMSE resulting from OLSLR was 4.1 ± 2.0 (VF2-10) and 19.9 ± 12.0 (VF2-4) dB. The absolute prediction error (SD) for mTD using VBLR was 1.2 ± 1.3 (VF2-10) and 1.9 ± 2.0 (VF2-4) dB, while the prediction error resulting from OLSLR was 1.2 ± 1.3 (VF2-10) and 6.2 ± 6.6 (VF2-4) dB. The VBLR more accurately predicts future VF progression in glaucoma patients compared to conventional OLSLR, especially in short VF series. © ARVO.

Accuracy of three-dimensional facial soft tissue simulation in post-traumatic zygoma reconstruction.

PubMed

Li, P; Zhou, Z W; Ren, J Y; Zhang, Y; Tian, W D; Tang, W

2016-12-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of novel software-CMF-preCADS-for the prediction of soft tissue changes following repositioning surgery for zygomatic fractures. Twenty patients who had sustained an isolated zygomatic fracture accompanied by facial deformity and who were treated with repositioning surgery participated in this study. Cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) scans and three-dimensional (3D) stereophotographs were acquired preoperatively and postoperatively. The 3D skeletal model from the preoperative CBCT data was matched with the postoperative one, and the fractured zygomatic fragments were segmented and aligned to the postoperative position for prediction. Then, the predicted model was matched with the postoperative 3D stereophotograph for quantification of the simulation error. The mean absolute error in the zygomatic soft tissue region between the predicted model and the real one was 1.42±1.56mm for all cases. The accuracy of the prediction (mean absolute error ≤2mm) was 87%. In the subjective assessment it was found that the majority of evaluators considered the predicted model and the postoperative model to be 'very similar'. CMF-preCADS software can provide a realistic, accurate prediction of the facial soft tissue appearance after repositioning surgery for zygomatic fractures. The reliability of this software for other types of repositioning surgery for maxillofacial fractures should be validated in the future. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Error Analysis of non-TLD HDR Brachytherapy Dosimetric Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amoush, Ahmad

The American Association of Physicists in Medicine Task Group Report43 (AAPM-TG43) and its updated version TG-43U1 rely on the LiF TLD detector to determine the experimental absolute dose rate for brachytherapy. The recommended uncertainty estimates associated with TLD experimental dosimetry include 5% for statistical errors (Type A) and 7% for systematic errors (Type B). TG-43U1 protocol does not include recommendation for other experimental dosimetric techniques to calculate the absolute dose for brachytherapy. This research used two independent experimental methods and Monte Carlo simulations to investigate and analyze uncertainties and errors associated with absolute dosimetry of HDR brachytherapy for a Tandem applicator. An A16 MicroChamber* and one dose MOSFET detectors† were selected to meet the TG-43U1 recommendations for experimental dosimetry. Statistical and systematic uncertainty analyses associated with each experimental technique were analyzed quantitatively using MCNPX 2.6‡ to evaluate source positional error, Tandem positional error, the source spectrum, phantom size effect, reproducibility, temperature and pressure effects, volume averaging, stem and wall effects, and Tandem effect. Absolute dose calculations for clinical use are based on Treatment Planning System (TPS) with no corrections for the above uncertainties. Absolute dose and uncertainties along the transverse plane were predicted for the A16 microchamber. The generated overall uncertainties are 22%, 17%, 15%, 15%, 16%, 17%, and 19% at 1cm, 2cm, 3cm, 4cm, and 5cm, respectively. Predicting the dose beyond 5cm is complicated due to low signal-to-noise ratio, cable effect, and stem effect for the A16 microchamber. Since dose beyond 5cm adds no clinical information, it has been ignored in this study. The absolute dose was predicted for the MOSFET detector from 1cm to 7cm along the transverse plane. The generated overall uncertainties are 23%, 11%, 8%, 7%, 7%, 9%, and 8% at 1cm, 2cm, 3cm, and 4cm, 5cm, 6cm, and 7cm, respectively. The Nucletron Freiburg flap applicator is used with the Nucletron remote afterloader HDR machine to deliver dose to surface cancers. Dosimetric data for the Nucletron 192Ir source were generated using Monte Carlo simulation and compared with the published data. Two dimensional dosimetric data were calculated at two source positions; at the center of the sphere of the applicator and between two adjacent spheres. Unlike the TPS dose algorithm, The Monte Carlo code developed for this research accounts for the applicator material, secondary electrons and delta particles, and the air gap between the skin and the applicator. *Standard Imaging, Inc., Middleton, Wisconsin USA † OneDose MOSFET, Sicel Technologies, Morrisville NC ‡ Los Alamos National Laboratory, NM USA

Arima model and exponential smoothing method: A comparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wan Ahmad, Wan Kamarul Ariffin; Ahmad, Sabri

2013-04-01

This study shows the comparison between Autoregressive Moving Average (ARIMA) model and Exponential Smoothing Method in making a prediction. The comparison is focused on the ability of both methods in making the forecasts with the different number of data sources and the different length of forecasting period. For this purpose, the data from The Price of Crude Palm Oil (RM/tonne), Exchange Rates of Ringgit Malaysia (RM) in comparison to Great Britain Pound (GBP) and also The Price of SMR 20 Rubber Type (cents/kg) with three different time series are used in the comparison process. Then, forecasting accuracy of each model is measured by examinethe prediction error that producedby using Mean Squared Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and Mean Absolute deviation (MAD). The study shows that the ARIMA model can produce a better prediction for the long-term forecasting with limited data sources, butcannot produce a better prediction for time series with a narrow range of one point to another as in the time series for Exchange Rates. On the contrary, Exponential Smoothing Method can produce a better forecasting for Exchange Rates that has a narrow range of one point to another for its time series, while itcannot produce a better prediction for a longer forecasting period.

Experimental verification of stopping-power prediction from single- and dual-energy computed tomography in biological tissues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Möhler, Christian; Russ, Tom; Wohlfahrt, Patrick; Elter, Alina; Runz, Armin; Richter, Christian; Greilich, Steffen

2018-01-01

An experimental setup for consecutive measurement of ion and x-ray absorption in tissue or other materials is introduced. With this setup using a 3D-printed sample container, the reference stopping-power ratio (SPR) of materials can be measured with an uncertainty of below 0.1%. A total of 65 porcine and bovine tissue samples were prepared for measurement, comprising five samples each of 13 tissue types representing about 80% of the total body mass (three different muscle and fatty tissues, liver, kidney, brain, heart, blood, lung and bone). Using a standard stoichiometric calibration for single-energy CT (SECT) as well as a state-of-the-art dual-energy CT (DECT) approach, SPR was predicted for all tissues and then compared to the measured reference. With the SECT approach, the SPRs of all tissues were predicted with a mean error of (-0.84  ±  0.12)% and a mean absolute error of (1.27  ±  0.12)%. In contrast, the DECT-based SPR predictions were overall consistent with the measured reference with a mean error of (-0.02  ±  0.15)% and a mean absolute error of (0.10  ±  0.15)%. Thus, in this study, the potential of DECT to decrease range uncertainty could be confirmed in biological tissue.

[Fire behavior of Mongolian oak leaves fuel bed under no-wind and zero-slope conditions. II. Analysis of the factors affecting flame length and residence time and related prediction models].

PubMed

Zhang, Ji-Li; Liu, Bo-Fei; Di, Xue-Ying; Chu, Teng-Fei; Jin, Sen

2012-11-01

Taking fuel moisture content, fuel loading, and fuel bed depth as controlling factors, the fuel beds of Mongolian oak leaves in Maoershan region of Northeast China in field were simulated, and a total of one hundred experimental burnings under no-wind and zero-slope conditions were conducted in laboratory, with the effects of the fuel moisture content, fuel loading, and fuel bed depth on the flame length and its residence time analyzed and the multivariate linear prediction models constructed. The results indicated that fuel moisture content had a significant negative liner correlation with flame length, but less correlation with flame residence time. Both the fuel loading and the fuel bed depth were significantly positively correlated with flame length and its residence time. The interactions of fuel bed depth with fuel moisture content and fuel loading had significant effects on the flame length, while the interactions of fuel moisture content with fuel loading and fuel bed depth affected the flame residence time significantly. The prediction model of flame length had better prediction effect, which could explain 83.3% of variance, with a mean absolute error of 7.8 cm and a mean relative error of 16.2%, while the prediction model of flame residence time was not good enough, which could only explain 54% of variance, with a mean absolute error of 9.2 s and a mean relative error of 18.6%.

Improving the prediction of going concern of Taiwanese listed companies using a hybrid of LASSO with data mining techniques.

PubMed

Goo, Yeung-Ja James; Chi, Der-Jang; Shen, Zong-De

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study is to establish rigorous and reliable going concern doubt (GCD) prediction models. This study first uses the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) to select variables and then applies data mining techniques to establish prediction models, such as neural network (NN), classification and regression tree (CART), and support vector machine (SVM). The samples of this study include 48 GCD listed companies and 124 NGCD (non-GCD) listed companies from 2002 to 2013 in the TEJ database. We conduct fivefold cross validation in order to identify the prediction accuracy. According to the empirical results, the prediction accuracy of the LASSO-NN model is 88.96 % (Type I error rate is 12.22 %; Type II error rate is 7.50 %), the prediction accuracy of the LASSO-CART model is 88.75 % (Type I error rate is 13.61 %; Type II error rate is 14.17 %), and the prediction accuracy of the LASSO-SVM model is 89.79 % (Type I error rate is 10.00 %; Type II error rate is 15.83 %).

Modeling and forecasting of KLCI weekly return using WT-ANN integrated model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liew, Wei-Thong; Liong, Choong-Yeun; Hussain, Saiful Izzuan; Isa, Zaidi

2013-04-01

The forecasting of weekly return is one of the most challenging tasks in investment since the time series are volatile and non-stationary. In this study, an integrated model of wavelet transform and artificial neural network, WT-ANN is studied for modeling and forecasting of KLCI weekly return. First, the WT is applied to decompose the weekly return time series in order to eliminate noise. Then, a mathematical model of the time series is constructed using the ANN. The performance of the suggested model will be evaluated by root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The result shows that the WT-ANN model can be considered as a feasible and powerful model for time series modeling and prediction.

Modeling number of claims and prediction of total claim amount

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Acar, Aslıhan Şentürk; Karabey, Uǧur

2017-07-01

In this study we focus on annual number of claims of a private health insurance data set which belongs to a local insurance company in Turkey. In addition to Poisson model and negative binomial model, zero-inflated Poisson model and zero-inflated negative binomial model are used to model the number of claims in order to take into account excess zeros. To investigate the impact of different distributional assumptions for the number of claims on the prediction of total claim amount, predictive performances of candidate models are compared by using root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) criteria.

A prediction model of short-term ionospheric foF2 Based on AdaBoost

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Xiukuan; Liu, Libo; Ning, Baiqi

Accurate specifications of spatial and temporal variations of the ionosphere during geomagnetic quiet and disturbed conditions are critical for applications, such as HF communications, satellite positioning and navigation, power grids, pipelines, etc. Therefore, developing empirical models to forecast the ionospheric perturbations is of high priority in real applications. The critical frequency of the F2 layer, foF2, is an important ionospheric parameter, especially for radio wave propagation applications. In this paper, the AdaBoost-BP algorithm is used to construct a new model to predict the critical frequency of the ionospheric F2-layer one hour ahead. Different indices were used to characterize ionospheric diurnal and seasonal variations and their dependence on solar and geomagnetic activity. These indices, together with the current observed foF2 value, were input into the prediction model and the foF2 value at one hour ahead was output. We analyzed twenty-two years’ foF2 data from nine ionosonde stations in the East-Asian sector in this work. The first eleven years’ data were used as a training dataset and the second eleven years’ data were used as a testing dataset. The results show that the performance of AdaBoost-BP is better than those of BP Neural Network (BPNN), Support Vector Regression (SVR) and the IRI model. For example, the AdaBoost-BP prediction absolute error of foF2 at Irkutsk station (a middle latitude station) is 0.32 MHz, which is better than 0.34 MHz from BPNN, 0.35 MHz from SVR and also significantly outperforms the IRI model whose absolute error is 0.64 MHz. Meanwhile, AdaBoost-BP prediction absolute error at Taipei station from the low latitude is 0.78 MHz, which is better than 0.81 MHz from BPNN, 0.81 MHz from SVR and 1.37 MHz from the IRI model. Finally, the variety characteristics of the AdaBoost-BP prediction error along with seasonal variation, solar activity and latitude variation were also discussed in the paper.

Very-short-term wind power prediction by a hybrid model with single- and multi-step approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammed, E.; Wang, S.; Yu, J.

2017-05-01

Very-short-term wind power prediction (VSTWPP) has played an essential role for the operation of electric power systems. This paper aims at improving and applying a hybrid method of VSTWPP based on historical data. The hybrid method is combined by multiple linear regressions and least square (MLR&LS), which is intended for reducing prediction errors. The predicted values are obtained through two sub-processes:1) transform the time-series data of actual wind power into the power ratio, and then predict the power ratio;2) use the predicted power ratio to predict the wind power. Besides, the proposed method can include two prediction approaches: single-step prediction (SSP) and multi-step prediction (MSP). WPP is tested comparatively by auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) model from the predicted values and errors. The validity of the proposed hybrid method is confirmed in terms of error analysis by using probability density function (PDF), mean absolute percent error (MAPE) and means square error (MSE). Meanwhile, comparison of the correlation coefficients between the actual values and the predicted values for different prediction times and window has confirmed that MSP approach by using the hybrid model is the most accurate while comparing to SSP approach and ARMA. The MLR&LS is accurate and promising for solving problems in WPP.

RaptorX-Angle: real-value prediction of protein backbone dihedral angles through a hybrid method of clustering and deep learning.

PubMed

Gao, Yujuan; Wang, Sheng; Deng, Minghua; Xu, Jinbo

2018-05-08

Protein dihedral angles provide a detailed description of protein local conformation. Predicted dihedral angles can be used to narrow down the conformational space of the whole polypeptide chain significantly, thus aiding protein tertiary structure prediction. However, direct angle prediction from sequence alone is challenging. In this article, we present a novel method (named RaptorX-Angle) to predict real-valued angles by combining clustering and deep learning. Tested on a subset of PDB25 and the targets in the latest two Critical Assessment of protein Structure Prediction (CASP), our method outperforms the existing state-of-art method SPIDER2 in terms of Pearson Correlation Coefficient (PCC) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). Our result also shows approximately linear relationship between the real prediction errors and our estimated bounds. That is, the real prediction error can be well approximated by our estimated bounds. Our study provides an alternative and more accurate prediction of dihedral angles, which may facilitate protein structure prediction and functional study.

Estimation of Power Consumption in the Circular Sawing of Stone Based on Tangential Force Distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Guoqin; Zhang, Meiqin; Huang, Hui; Guo, Hua; Xu, Xipeng

2018-04-01

Circular sawing is an important method for the processing of natural stone. The ability to predict sawing power is important in the optimisation, monitoring and control of the sawing process. In this paper, a predictive model (PFD) of sawing power, which is based on the tangential force distribution at the sawing contact zone, was proposed, experimentally validated and modified. With regard to the influence of sawing speed on tangential force distribution, the modified PFD (MPFD) performed with high predictive accuracy across a wide range of sawing parameters, including sawing speed. The mean maximum absolute error rate was within 6.78%, and the maximum absolute error rate was within 11.7%. The practicability of predicting sawing power by the MPFD with few initial experimental samples was proved in case studies. On the premise of high sample measurement accuracy, only two samples are required for a fixed sawing speed. The feasibility of applying the MPFD to optimise sawing parameters while lowering the energy consumption of the sawing system was validated. The case study shows that energy use was reduced 28% by optimising the sawing parameters. The MPFD model can be used to predict sawing power, optimise sawing parameters and control energy.

Dissociable effects of surprising rewards on learning and memory.

PubMed

Rouhani, Nina; Norman, Kenneth A; Niv, Yael

2018-03-19

Reward-prediction errors track the extent to which rewards deviate from expectations, and aid in learning. How do such errors in prediction interact with memory for the rewarding episode? Existing findings point to both cooperative and competitive interactions between learning and memory mechanisms. Here, we investigated whether learning about rewards in a high-risk context, with frequent, large prediction errors, would give rise to higher fidelity memory traces for rewarding events than learning in a low-risk context. Experiment 1 showed that recognition was better for items associated with larger absolute prediction errors during reward learning. Larger prediction errors also led to higher rates of learning about rewards. Interestingly we did not find a relationship between learning rate for reward and recognition-memory accuracy for items, suggesting that these two effects of prediction errors were caused by separate underlying mechanisms. In Experiment 2, we replicated these results with a longer task that posed stronger memory demands and allowed for more learning. We also showed improved source and sequence memory for items within the high-risk context. In Experiment 3, we controlled for the difficulty of reward learning in the risk environments, again replicating the previous results. Moreover, this control revealed that the high-risk context enhanced item-recognition memory beyond the effect of prediction errors. In summary, our results show that prediction errors boost both episodic item memory and incremental reward learning, but the two effects are likely mediated by distinct underlying systems. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Leuconostoc mesenteroides growth in food products: prediction and sensitivity analysis by adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference systems.

PubMed

Wang, Hue-Yu; Wen, Ching-Feng; Chiu, Yu-Hsien; Lee, I-Nong; Kao, Hao-Yun; Lee, I-Chen; Ho, Wen-Hsien

2013-01-01

An adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) was compared with an artificial neural network (ANN) in terms of accuracy in predicting the combined effects of temperature (10.5 to 24.5°C), pH level (5.5 to 7.5), sodium chloride level (0.25% to 6.25%) and sodium nitrite level (0 to 200 ppm) on the growth rate of Leuconostoc mesenteroides under aerobic and anaerobic conditions. THE ANFIS AND ANN MODELS WERE COMPARED IN TERMS OF SIX STATISTICAL INDICES CALCULATED BY COMPARING THEIR PREDICTION RESULTS WITH ACTUAL DATA: mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), root mean square error (RMSE), standard error of prediction percentage (SEP), bias factor (Bf), accuracy factor (Af), and absolute fraction of variance (R (2)). Graphical plots were also used for model comparison. The learning-based systems obtained encouraging prediction results. Sensitivity analyses of the four environmental factors showed that temperature and, to a lesser extent, NaCl had the most influence on accuracy in predicting the growth rate of Leuconostoc mesenteroides under aerobic and anaerobic conditions. The observed effectiveness of ANFIS for modeling microbial kinetic parameters confirms its potential use as a supplemental tool in predictive mycology. Comparisons between growth rates predicted by ANFIS and actual experimental data also confirmed the high accuracy of the Gaussian membership function in ANFIS. Comparisons of the six statistical indices under both aerobic and anaerobic conditions also showed that the ANFIS model was better than all ANN models in predicting the four kinetic parameters. Therefore, the ANFIS model is a valuable tool for quickly predicting the growth rate of Leuconostoc mesenteroides under aerobic and anaerobic conditions.

Leuconostoc Mesenteroides Growth in Food Products: Prediction and Sensitivity Analysis by Adaptive-Network-Based Fuzzy Inference Systems

PubMed Central

Wang, Hue-Yu; Wen, Ching-Feng; Chiu, Yu-Hsien; Lee, I-Nong; Kao, Hao-Yun; Lee, I-Chen; Ho, Wen-Hsien

2013-01-01

Background An adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) was compared with an artificial neural network (ANN) in terms of accuracy in predicting the combined effects of temperature (10.5 to 24.5°C), pH level (5.5 to 7.5), sodium chloride level (0.25% to 6.25%) and sodium nitrite level (0 to 200 ppm) on the growth rate of Leuconostoc mesenteroides under aerobic and anaerobic conditions. Methods The ANFIS and ANN models were compared in terms of six statistical indices calculated by comparing their prediction results with actual data: mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), root mean square error (RMSE), standard error of prediction percentage (SEP), bias factor (Bf), accuracy factor (Af), and absolute fraction of variance (R 2). Graphical plots were also used for model comparison. Conclusions The learning-based systems obtained encouraging prediction results. Sensitivity analyses of the four environmental factors showed that temperature and, to a lesser extent, NaCl had the most influence on accuracy in predicting the growth rate of Leuconostoc mesenteroides under aerobic and anaerobic conditions. The observed effectiveness of ANFIS for modeling microbial kinetic parameters confirms its potential use as a supplemental tool in predictive mycology. Comparisons between growth rates predicted by ANFIS and actual experimental data also confirmed the high accuracy of the Gaussian membership function in ANFIS. Comparisons of the six statistical indices under both aerobic and anaerobic conditions also showed that the ANFIS model was better than all ANN models in predicting the four kinetic parameters. Therefore, the ANFIS model is a valuable tool for quickly predicting the growth rate of Leuconostoc mesenteroides under aerobic and anaerobic conditions. PMID:23705023

[Fire behavior of ground surface fuels in Pinus koraiensis and Quercus mongolica mixed forest under no wind and zero slope condition: a prediction with extended Rothermel model].

PubMed

Zhang, Ji-Li; Liu, Bo-Fei; Chu, Teng-Fei; Di, Xue-Ying; Jin, Sen

2012-06-01

A laboratory burning experiment was conducted to measure the fire spread speed, residual time, reaction intensity, fireline intensity, and flame length of the ground surface fuels collected from a Korean pine (Pinus koraiensis) and Mongolian oak (Quercus mongolica) mixed stand in Maoer Mountains of Northeast China under the conditions of no wind, zero slope, and different moisture content, load, and mixture ratio of the fuels. The results measured were compared with those predicted by the extended Rothermel model to test the performance of the model, especially for the effects of two different weighting methods on the fire behavior modeling of the mixed fuels. With the prediction of the model, the mean absolute errors of the fire spread speed and reaction intensity of the fuels were 0.04 m X min(-1) and 77 kW X m(-2), their mean relative errors were 16% and 22%, while the mean absolute errors of residual time, fireline intensity and flame length were 15.5 s, 17.3 kW X m(-1), and 9.7 cm, and their mean relative errors were 55.5%, 48.7%, and 24%, respectively, indicating that the predicted values of residual time, fireline intensity, and flame length were lower than the observed ones. These errors could be regarded as the lower limits for the application of the extended Rothermel model in predicting the fire behavior of similar fuel types, and provide valuable information for using the model to predict the fire behavior under the similar field conditions. As a whole, the two different weighting methods did not show significant difference in predicting the fire behavior of the mixed fuels by extended Rothermel model. When the proportion of Korean pine fuels was lower, the predicted values of spread speed and reaction intensity obtained by surface area weighting method and those of fireline intensity and flame length obtained by load weighting method were higher; when the proportion of Korean pine needles was higher, the contrary results were obtained.

Depicting mass flow rate of R134a /LPG refrigerant through straight and helical coiled adiabatic capillary tubes of vapor compression refrigeration system using artificial neural network approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gill, Jatinder; Singh, Jagdev

2018-07-01

In this work, an experimental investigation is carried out with R134a and LPG refrigerant mixture for depicting mass flow rate through straight and helical coil adiabatic capillary tubes in a vapor compression refrigeration system. Various experiments were conducted under steady-state conditions, by changing capillary tube length, inner diameter, coil diameter and degree of subcooling. The results showed that mass flow rate through helical coil capillary tube was found lower than straight capillary tube by about 5-16%. Dimensionless correlation and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models were developed to predict mass flow rate. It was found that dimensionless correlation and ANN model predictions agreed well with experimental results and brought out an absolute fraction of variance of 0.961 and 0.988, root mean square error of 0.489 and 0.275 and mean absolute percentage error of 4.75% and 2.31% respectively. The results suggested that ANN model shows better statistical prediction than dimensionless correlation model.

Anticoagulation therapy advisor: a decision-support system for heparin therapy during ECMO.

PubMed Central

Peverini, R. L.; Sale, M.; Rhine, W. D.; Fagan, L. M.; Lenert, L. A.

1992-01-01

We present a case study describing our development of a mathematical model to control a clinical parameter in a patient--in this case, the degree of anticoagulation during extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) support. During ECMO therapy, an anticoagulant agent (heparin) is administered to prevent thrombosis. Under- or over-coagulation can have grave consequences. To improve control of anticoagulation, we developed a pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) model that predicts activated clotting times (ACT) using the NONMEM program. We then integrated this model into a decision-support system, and validated it with an independent data set. The population model had a mean absolute error of prediction for ACT values of 33.5 seconds, with a mean bias in estimation of -14.3 seconds. Individualization of model-parameter estimates using nonlinear regression improved the absolute error prediction to 25.5 seconds, and lowered the mean bias to -3.1 seconds. The PK-PD model is coupled with software for heuristic interpretation of model results to provide a complete environment for the management of anticoagulation. PMID:1482937

Alternatives to accuracy and bias metrics based on percentage errors for radiation belt modeling applications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Morley, Steven Karl

This report reviews existing literature describing forecast accuracy metrics, concentrating on those based on relative errors and percentage errors. We then review how the most common of these metrics, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), has been applied in recent radiation belt modeling literature. Finally, we describe metrics based on the ratios of predicted to observed values (the accuracy ratio) that address the drawbacks inherent in using MAPE. Specifically, we define and recommend the median log accuracy ratio as a measure of bias and the median symmetric accuracy as a measure of accuracy.

Interest rate next-day variation prediction based on hybrid feedforward neural network, particle swarm optimization, and multiresolution techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lahmiri, Salim

2016-02-01

Multiresolution analysis techniques including continuous wavelet transform, empirical mode decomposition, and variational mode decomposition are tested in the context of interest rate next-day variation prediction. In particular, multiresolution analysis techniques are used to decompose interest rate actual variation and feedforward neural network for training and prediction. Particle swarm optimization technique is adopted to optimize its initial weights. For comparison purpose, autoregressive moving average model, random walk process and the naive model are used as main reference models. In order to show the feasibility of the presented hybrid models that combine multiresolution analysis techniques and feedforward neural network optimized by particle swarm optimization, we used a set of six illustrative interest rates; including Moody's seasoned Aaa corporate bond yield, Moody's seasoned Baa corporate bond yield, 3-Month, 6-Month and 1-Year treasury bills, and effective federal fund rate. The forecasting results show that all multiresolution-based prediction systems outperform the conventional reference models on the criteria of mean absolute error, mean absolute deviation, and root mean-squared error. Therefore, it is advantageous to adopt hybrid multiresolution techniques and soft computing models to forecast interest rate daily variations as they provide good forecasting performance.

Top-of-Climb Matching Method for Reducing Aircraft Trajectory Prediction Errors.

PubMed

Thipphavong, David P

2016-09-01

The inaccuracies of the aircraft performance models utilized by trajectory predictors with regard to takeoff weight, thrust, climb profile, and other parameters result in altitude errors during the climb phase that often exceed the vertical separation standard of 1000 feet. This study investigates the potential reduction in altitude trajectory prediction errors that could be achieved for climbing flights if just one additional parameter is made available: top-of-climb (TOC) time. The TOC-matching method developed and evaluated in this paper is straightforward: a set of candidate trajectory predictions is generated using different aircraft weight parameters, and the one that most closely matches TOC in terms of time is selected. This algorithm was tested using more than 1000 climbing flights in Fort Worth Center. Compared to the baseline trajectory predictions of a real-time research prototype (Center/TRACON Automation System), the TOC-matching method reduced the altitude root mean square error (RMSE) for a 5-minute prediction time by 38%. It also decreased the percentage of flights with absolute altitude error greater than the vertical separation standard of 1000 ft for the same look-ahead time from 55% to 30%.

Top-of-Climb Matching Method for Reducing Aircraft Trajectory Prediction Errors

PubMed Central

Thipphavong, David P.

2017-01-01

The inaccuracies of the aircraft performance models utilized by trajectory predictors with regard to takeoff weight, thrust, climb profile, and other parameters result in altitude errors during the climb phase that often exceed the vertical separation standard of 1000 feet. This study investigates the potential reduction in altitude trajectory prediction errors that could be achieved for climbing flights if just one additional parameter is made available: top-of-climb (TOC) time. The TOC-matching method developed and evaluated in this paper is straightforward: a set of candidate trajectory predictions is generated using different aircraft weight parameters, and the one that most closely matches TOC in terms of time is selected. This algorithm was tested using more than 1000 climbing flights in Fort Worth Center. Compared to the baseline trajectory predictions of a real-time research prototype (Center/TRACON Automation System), the TOC-matching method reduced the altitude root mean square error (RMSE) for a 5-minute prediction time by 38%. It also decreased the percentage of flights with absolute altitude error greater than the vertical separation standard of 1000 ft for the same look-ahead time from 55% to 30%. PMID:28684883

Top-of-Climb Matching Method for Reducing Aircraft Trajectory Prediction Errors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thipphavong, David P.

2016-01-01

The inaccuracies of the aircraft performance models utilized by trajectory predictors with regard to takeoff weight, thrust, climb profile, and other parameters result in altitude errors during the climb phase that often exceed the vertical separation standard of 1000 feet. This study investigates the potential reduction in altitude trajectory prediction errors that could be achieved for climbing flights if just one additional parameter is made available: top-of-climb (TOC) time. The TOC-matching method developed and evaluated in this paper is straightforward: a set of candidate trajectory predictions is generated using different aircraft weight parameters, and the one that most closely matches TOC in terms of time is selected. This algorithm was tested using more than 1000 climbing flights in Fort Worth Center. Compared to the baseline trajectory predictions of a real-time research prototype (Center/TRACON Automation System), the TOC-matching method reduced the altitude root mean square error (RMSE) for a 5-minute prediction time by 38%. It also decreased the percentage of flights with absolute altitude error greater than the vertical separation standard of 1000 ft for the same look-ahead time from 55% to 30%.

A nonlinear model of gold production in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramli, Norashikin; Muda, Nora; Umor, Mohd Rozi

2014-06-01

Malaysia is a country which is rich in natural resources and one of it is a gold. Gold has already become an important national commodity. This study is conducted to determine a model that can be well fitted with the gold production in Malaysia from the year 1995-2010. Five nonlinear models are presented in this study which are Logistic model, Gompertz, Richard, Weibull and Chapman-Richard model. These model are used to fit the cumulative gold production in Malaysia. The best model is then selected based on the model performance. The performance of the fitted model is measured by sum squares error, root mean squares error, coefficient of determination, mean relative error, mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error. This study has found that a Weibull model is shown to have significantly outperform compare to the other models. To confirm that Weibull is the best model, the latest data are fitted to the model. Once again, Weibull model gives the lowest readings at all types of measurement error. We can concluded that the future gold production in Malaysia can be predicted according to the Weibull model and this could be important findings for Malaysia to plan their economic activities.

Improved tests of extra-dimensional physics and thermal quantum field theory from new Casimir force measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Decca, R. S.; Fischbach, E.; Klimchitskaya, G. L.; Krause, D. E.; López, D.; Mostepanenko, V. M.

2003-12-01

We report new constraints on extra-dimensional models and other physics beyond the standard model based on measurements of the Casimir force between two dissimilar metals for separations in the range 0.2 1.2 μm. The Casimir force between a Au-coated sphere and a Cu-coated plate of a microelectromechanical torsional oscillator was measured statically with an absolute error of 0.3 pN. In addition, the Casimir pressure between two parallel plates was determined dynamically with an absolute error of ≈0.6 mPa. Within the limits of experimental and theoretical errors, the results are in agreement with a theory that takes into account the finite conductivity and roughness of the two metals. The level of agreement between experiment and theory was then used to set limits on the predictions of extra-dimensional physics and thermal quantum field theory. It is shown that two theoretical approaches to the thermal Casimir force which predict effects linear in temperature are ruled out by these experiments. Finally, constraints on Yukawa corrections to Newton’s law of gravity are strengthened by more than an order of magnitude in the range 56 330 nm.

[Effect of stock abundance and environmental factors on the recruitment success of small yellow croaker in the East China Sea].

PubMed

Liu, Zun-lei; Yuan, Xing-wei; Yang, Lin-lin; Yan, Li-ping; Zhang, Hui; Cheng, Jia-hua

2015-02-01

Multiple hypotheses are available to explain recruitment rate. Model selection methods can be used to identify the best model that supports a particular hypothesis. However, using a single model for estimating recruitment success is often inadequate for overexploited population because of high model uncertainty. In this study, stock-recruitment data of small yellow croaker in the East China Sea collected from fishery dependent and independent surveys between 1992 and 2012 were used to examine density-dependent effects on recruitment success. Model selection methods based on frequentist (AIC, maximum adjusted R2 and P-values) and Bayesian (Bayesian model averaging, BMA) methods were applied to identify the relationship between recruitment and environment conditions. Interannual variability of the East China Sea environment was indicated by sea surface temperature ( SST) , meridional wind stress (MWS), zonal wind stress (ZWS), sea surface pressure (SPP) and runoff of Changjiang River ( RCR). Mean absolute error, mean squared predictive error and continuous ranked probability score were calculated to evaluate the predictive performance of recruitment success. The results showed that models structures were not consistent based on three kinds of model selection methods, predictive variables of models were spawning abundance and MWS by AIC, spawning abundance by P-values, spawning abundance, MWS and RCR by maximum adjusted R2. The recruitment success decreased linearly with stock abundance (P < 0.01), suggesting overcompensation effect in the recruitment success might be due to cannibalism or food competition. Meridional wind intensity showed marginally significant and positive effects on the recruitment success (P = 0.06), while runoff of Changjiang River showed a marginally negative effect (P = 0.07). Based on mean absolute error and continuous ranked probability score, predictive error associated with models obtained from BMA was the smallest amongst different approaches, while that from models selected based on the P-value of the independent variables was the highest. However, mean squared predictive error from models selected based on the maximum adjusted R2 was highest. We found that BMA method could improve the prediction of recruitment success, derive more accurate prediction interval and quantitatively evaluate model uncertainty.

LAI inversion from optical reflectance using a neural network trained with a multiple scattering model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, James A.

1992-01-01

The inversion of the leaf area index (LAI) canopy parameter from optical spectral reflectance measurements is obtained using a backpropagation artificial neural network trained using input-output pairs generated by a multiple scattering reflectance model. The problem of LAI estimation over sparse canopies (LAI < 1.0) with varying soil reflectance backgrounds is particularly difficult. Standard multiple regression methods applied to canopies within a single homogeneous soil type yield good results but perform unacceptably when applied across soil boundaries, resulting in absolute percentage errors of >1000 percent for low LAI. Minimization methods applied to merit functions constructed from differences between measured reflectances and predicted reflectances using multiple-scattering models are unacceptably sensitive to a good initial guess for the desired parameter. In contrast, the neural network reported generally yields absolute percentage errors of <30 percent when weighting coefficients trained on one soil type were applied to predicted canopy reflectance at a different soil background.

A Hybrid Model for Predicting the Prevalence of Schistosomiasis in Humans of Qianjiang City, China

PubMed Central

Wang, Ying; Lu, Zhouqin; Tian, Lihong; Tan, Li; Shi, Yun; Nie, Shaofa; Liu, Li

2014-01-01

Backgrounds/Objective Schistosomiasis is still a major public health problem in China, despite the fact that the government has implemented a series of strategies to prevent and control the spread of the parasitic disease. Advanced warning and reliable forecasting can help policymakers to adjust and implement strategies more effectively, which will lead to the control and elimination of schistosomiasis. Our aim is to explore the application of a hybrid forecasting model to track the trends of the prevalence of schistosomiasis in humans, which provides a methodological basis for predicting and detecting schistosomiasis infection in endemic areas. Methods A hybrid approach combining the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and the nonlinear autoregressive neural network (NARNN) model to forecast the prevalence of schistosomiasis in the future four years. Forecasting performance was compared between the hybrid ARIMA-NARNN model, and the single ARIMA or the single NARNN model. Results The modelling mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the ARIMA-NARNN model was 0.1869×10−4, 0.0029, 0.0419 with a corresponding testing error of 0.9375×10−4, 0.0081, 0.9064, respectively. These error values generated with the hybrid model were all lower than those obtained from the single ARIMA or NARNN model. The forecasting values were 0.75%, 0.80%, 0.76% and 0.77% in the future four years, which demonstrated a no-downward trend. Conclusion The hybrid model has high quality prediction accuracy in the prevalence of schistosomiasis, which provides a methodological basis for future schistosomiasis monitoring and control strategies in the study area. It is worth attempting to utilize the hybrid detection scheme in other schistosomiasis-endemic areas including other infectious diseases. PMID:25119882

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fang, Zongtang; Both, Johan; Li, Shenggang

The heats of formation and the normalized clustering energies (NCEs) for the group 4 and group 6 transition metal oxide (TMO) trimers and tetramers have been calculated by the Feller-Peterson-Dixon (FPD) method. The heats of formation predicted by the FPD method do not differ much from those previously derived from the NCEs at the CCSD(T)/aT level except for the CrO3 nanoclusters. New and improved heats of formation for Cr3O9 and Cr4O12 were obtained using PW91 orbitals instead of Hartree-Fock (HF) orbitals. Diffuse functions are necessary to predict accurate heats of formation. The fluoride affinities (FAs) are calculated with the CCSD(T)more » method. The relative energies (REs) of different isomers, NCEs, electron affinities (EAs), and FAs of (MO2)n ( M = Ti, Zr, Hf, n = 1 – 4 ) and (MO3)n ( M = Cr, Mo, W, n = 1 – 3) clusters have been benchmarked with 55 exchange-correlation DFT functionals including both pure and hybrid types. The absolute errors of the DFT results are mostly less than ±10 kcal/mol for the NCEs and the EAs, and less than ±15 kcal/mol for the FAs. Hybrid functionals usually perform better than the pure functionals for the REs and NCEs. The performance of the two types of functionals in predicting EAs and FAs is comparable. The B1B95 and PBE1PBE functionals provide reliable energetic properties for most isomers. Long range corrected pure functionals usually give poor FAs. The standard deviation of the absolute error is always close to the mean errors and the probability distributions of the DFT errors are often not Gaussian (normal). The breadth of the distribution of errors and the maximum probability are dependent on the energy property and the isomer.« less

Accuracy evaluation of Fourier series analysis and singular spectrum analysis for predicting the volume of motorcycle sales in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sasmita, Yoga; Darmawan, Gumgum

2017-08-01

This research aims to evaluate the performance of forecasting by Fourier Series Analysis (FSA) and Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) which are more explorative and not requiring parametric assumption. Those methods are applied to predicting the volume of motorcycle sales in Indonesia from January 2005 to December 2016 (monthly). Both models are suitable for seasonal and trend component data. Technically, FSA defines time domain as the result of trend and seasonal component in different frequencies which is difficult to identify in the time domain analysis. With the hidden period is 2,918 ≈ 3 and significant model order is 3, FSA model is used to predict testing data. Meanwhile, SSA has two main processes, decomposition and reconstruction. SSA decomposes the time series data into different components. The reconstruction process starts with grouping the decomposition result based on similarity period of each component in trajectory matrix. With the optimum of window length (L = 53) and grouping effect (r = 4), SSA predicting testing data. Forecasting accuracy evaluation is done based on Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The result shows that in the next 12 month, SSA has MAPE = 13.54 percent, MAE = 61,168.43 and RMSE = 75,244.92 and FSA has MAPE = 28.19 percent, MAE = 119,718.43 and RMSE = 142,511.17. Therefore, to predict volume of motorcycle sales in the next period should use SSA method which has better performance based on its accuracy.

Estimating anesthesia and surgical procedure times from medicare anesthesia claims.

PubMed

Silber, Jeffrey H; Rosenbaum, Paul R; Zhang, Xuemei; Even-Shoshan, Orit

2007-02-01

Procedure times are important variables that often are included in studies of quality and efficiency. However, due to the need for costly chart review, most studies are limited to single-institution analyses. In this article, the authors describe how well the anesthesia claim from Medicare can estimate chart times. The authors abstracted information on time of induction and entrance to the recovery room ("anesthesia chart time") from the charts of 1,931 patients who underwent general and orthopedic surgical procedures in Pennsylvania. The authors then merged the associated bills from claims data supplied from Medicare (Part B data) that included a variable denoting the time in minutes for the anesthesia service. The authors also investigated the time from incision to closure ("surgical chart time") on a subset of 1,888 patients. Anesthesia claim time from Medicare was highly predictive of anesthesia chart time (Kendall's rank correlation tau = 0.85, P < 0.0001, median absolute error = 5.1 min) but somewhat less predictive of surgical chart time (Kendall's tau = 0.73, P < 0.0001, median absolute error = 13.8 min). When predicting chart time from Medicare bills, variables reflecting procedure type, comorbidities, and hospital type did not significantly improve the prediction, suggesting that errors in predicting the chart time from the anesthesia bill time are not related to these factors; however, the individual hospital did have some influence on these estimates. Anesthesia chart time can be well estimated using Medicare claims, thereby facilitating studies with vastly larger sample sizes and much lower costs of data collection.

A New Tool for CME Arrival Time Prediction using Machine Learning Algorithms: CAT-PUMA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jiajia; Ye, Yudong; Shen, Chenglong; Wang, Yuming; Erdélyi, Robert

2018-03-01

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are arguably the most violent eruptions in the solar system. CMEs can cause severe disturbances in interplanetary space and can even affect human activities in many aspects, causing damage to infrastructure and loss of revenue. Fast and accurate prediction of CME arrival time is vital to minimize the disruption that CMEs may cause when interacting with geospace. In this paper, we propose a new approach for partial-/full halo CME Arrival Time Prediction Using Machine learning Algorithms (CAT-PUMA). Via detailed analysis of the CME features and solar-wind parameters, we build a prediction engine taking advantage of 182 previously observed geo-effective partial-/full halo CMEs and using algorithms of the Support Vector Machine. We demonstrate that CAT-PUMA is accurate and fast. In particular, predictions made after applying CAT-PUMA to a test set unknown to the engine show a mean absolute prediction error of ∼5.9 hr within the CME arrival time, with 54% of the predictions having absolute errors less than 5.9 hr. Comparisons with other models reveal that CAT-PUMA has a more accurate prediction for 77% of the events investigated that can be carried out very quickly, i.e., within minutes of providing the necessary input parameters of a CME. A practical guide containing the CAT-PUMA engine and the source code of two examples are available in the Appendix, allowing the community to perform their own applications for prediction using CAT-PUMA.

Forecast models for suicide: Time-series analysis with data from Italy.

PubMed

Preti, Antonio; Lentini, Gianluca

2016-01-01

The prediction of suicidal behavior is a complex task. To fine-tune targeted preventative interventions, predictive analytics (i.e. forecasting future risk of suicide) is more important than exploratory data analysis (pattern recognition, e.g. detection of seasonality in suicide time series). This study sets out to investigate the accuracy of forecasting models of suicide for men and women. A total of 101 499 male suicides and of 39 681 female suicides - occurred in Italy from 1969 to 2003 - were investigated. In order to apply the forecasting model and test its accuracy, the time series were split into a training set (1969 to 1996; 336 months) and a test set (1997 to 2003; 84 months). The main outcome was the accuracy of forecasting models on the monthly number of suicides. These measures of accuracy were used: mean absolute error; root mean squared error; mean absolute percentage error; mean absolute scaled error. In both male and female suicides a change in the trend pattern was observed, with an increase from 1969 onwards to reach a maximum around 1990 and decrease thereafter. The variances attributable to the seasonal and trend components were, respectively, 24% and 64% in male suicides, and 28% and 41% in female ones. Both annual and seasonal historical trends of monthly data contributed to forecast future trends of suicide with a margin of error around 10%. The finding is clearer in male than in female time series of suicide. The main conclusion of the study is that models taking seasonality into account seem to be able to derive information on deviation from the mean when this occurs as a zenith, but they fail to reproduce it when it occurs as a nadir. Preventative efforts should concentrate on the factors that influence the occurrence of increases above the main trend in both seasonal and cyclic patterns of suicides.

Comparison of various error functions in predicting the optimum isotherm by linear and non-linear regression analysis for the sorption of basic red 9 by activated carbon.

PubMed

Kumar, K Vasanth; Porkodi, K; Rocha, F

2008-01-15

A comparison of linear and non-linear regression method in selecting the optimum isotherm was made to the experimental equilibrium data of basic red 9 sorption by activated carbon. The r(2) was used to select the best fit linear theoretical isotherm. In the case of non-linear regression method, six error functions namely coefficient of determination (r(2)), hybrid fractional error function (HYBRID), Marquardt's percent standard deviation (MPSD), the average relative error (ARE), sum of the errors squared (ERRSQ) and sum of the absolute errors (EABS) were used to predict the parameters involved in the two and three parameter isotherms and also to predict the optimum isotherm. Non-linear regression was found to be a better way to obtain the parameters involved in the isotherms and also the optimum isotherm. For two parameter isotherm, MPSD was found to be the best error function in minimizing the error distribution between the experimental equilibrium data and predicted isotherms. In the case of three parameter isotherm, r(2) was found to be the best error function to minimize the error distribution structure between experimental equilibrium data and theoretical isotherms. The present study showed that the size of the error function alone is not a deciding factor to choose the optimum isotherm. In addition to the size of error function, the theory behind the predicted isotherm should be verified with the help of experimental data while selecting the optimum isotherm. A coefficient of non-determination, K(2) was explained and was found to be very useful in identifying the best error function while selecting the optimum isotherm.

Analysis of the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) in Assessing Rounding Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Weijie; Lu, Yanmin

2018-03-01

Most existing Collaborative Filtering (CF) algorithms predict a rating as the preference of an active user toward a given item, which is always a decimal fraction. Meanwhile, the actual ratings in most data sets are integers. In this paper, we discuss and demonstrate why rounding can bring different influences to these two metrics; prove that rounding is necessary in post-processing of the predicted ratings, eliminate of model prediction bias, improving the accuracy of the prediction. In addition, we also propose two new rounding approaches based on the predicted rating probability distribution, which can be used to round the predicted rating to an optimal integer rating, and get better prediction accuracy compared to the Basic Rounding approach. Extensive experiments on different data sets validate the correctness of our analysis and the effectiveness of our proposed rounding approaches.

Reliable absolute analog code retrieval approach for 3D measurement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Shuang; Zhang, Jing; Yu, Xiaoyang; Sun, Xiaoming; Wu, Haibin; Chen, Deyun

2017-11-01

The wrapped phase of phase-shifting approach can be unwrapped by using Gray code, but both the wrapped phase error and Gray code decoding error can result in period jump error, which will lead to gross measurement error. Therefore, this paper presents a reliable absolute analog code retrieval approach. The combination of unequal-period Gray code and phase shifting patterns at high frequencies are used to obtain high-frequency absolute analog code, and at low frequencies, the same unequal-period combination patterns are used to obtain the low-frequency absolute analog code. Next, the difference between the two absolute analog codes was employed to eliminate period jump errors, and a reliable unwrapped result can be obtained. Error analysis was used to determine the applicable conditions, and this approach was verified through theoretical analysis. The proposed approach was further verified experimentally. Theoretical analysis and experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach can perform reliable analog code unwrapping.

An Improved Computational Method for the Calculation of Mixture Liquid-Vapor Critical Points

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dimitrakopoulos, Panagiotis; Jia, Wenlong; Li, Changjun

2014-05-01

Knowledge of critical points is important to determine the phase behavior of a mixture. This work proposes a reliable and accurate method in order to locate the liquid-vapor critical point of a given mixture. The theoretical model is developed from the rigorous definition of critical points, based on the SRK equation of state (SRK EoS) or alternatively, on the PR EoS. In order to solve the resulting system of nonlinear equations, an improved method is introduced into an existing Newton-Raphson algorithm, which can calculate all the variables simultaneously in each iteration step. The improvements mainly focus on the derivatives of the Jacobian matrix, on the convergence criteria, and on the damping coefficient. As a result, all equations and related conditions required for the computation of the scheme are illustrated in this paper. Finally, experimental data for the critical points of 44 mixtures are adopted in order to validate the method. For the SRK EoS, average absolute errors of the predicted critical-pressure and critical-temperature values are 123.82 kPa and 3.11 K, respectively, whereas the commercial software package Calsep PVTSIM's prediction errors are 131.02 kPa and 3.24 K. For the PR EoS, the two above mentioned average absolute errors are 129.32 kPa and 2.45 K, while the PVTSIM's errors are 137.24 kPa and 2.55 K, respectively.

Validation of SenseWear Armband in children, adolescents, and adults.

PubMed

Lopez, G A; Brønd, J C; Andersen, L B; Dencker, M; Arvidsson, D

2018-02-01

SenseWear Armband (SW) is a multisensor monitor to assess physical activity and energy expenditure. Its prediction algorithms have been updated periodically. The aim was to validate SW in children, adolescents, and adults. The most recent SW algorithm 5.2 (SW5.2) and the previous version 2.2 (SW2.2) were evaluated for estimation of energy expenditure during semi-structured activities in 35 children, 31 adolescents, and 36 adults with indirect calorimetry as reference. Energy expenditure estimated from waist-worn ActiGraph GT3X+ data (AG) was used for comparison. Improvements in measurement errors were demonstrated with SW5.2 compared to SW2.2, especially in children and for biking. The overall mean absolute percent error with SW5.2 was 24% in children, 23% in adolescents, and 20% in adults. The error was larger for sitting and standing (23%-32%) and for basketball and biking (19%-35%), compared to walking and running (8%-20%). The overall mean absolute error with AG was 28% in children, 22% in adolescents, and 28% in adults. The absolute percent error for biking was 32%-74% with AG. In general, SW and AG underestimated energy expenditure. However, both methods demonstrated a proportional bias, with increasing underestimation for increasing energy expenditure level, in addition to the large individual error. SW provides measures of energy expenditure level with similar accuracy in children, adolescents, and adults with the improvements in the updated algorithms. Although SW captures biking better than AG, these methods share remaining measurements errors requiring further improvements for accurate measures of physical activity and energy expenditure in clinical and epidemiological research. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Poster - 49: Assessment of Synchrony respiratory compensation error for CyberKnife liver treatment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Ming; Cygler,

The goal of this work is to quantify respiratory motion compensation errors for liver tumor patients treated by the CyberKnife system with Synchrony tracking, to identify patients with the smallest tracking errors and to eventually help coach patient’s breathing patterns to minimize dose delivery errors. The accuracy of CyberKnife Synchrony respiratory motion compensation was assessed for 37 patients treated for liver lesions by analyzing data from system logfiles. A predictive model is used to modulate the direction of individual beams during dose delivery based on the positions of internally implanted fiducials determined using an orthogonal x-ray imaging system and themore » current location of LED external markers. For each x-ray pair acquired, system logfiles report the prediction error, the difference between the measured and predicted fiducial positions, and the delivery error, which is an estimate of the statistical error in the model overcoming the latency between x-ray acquisition and robotic repositioning. The total error was calculated at the time of each x-ray pair, for the number of treatment fractions and the number of patients, giving the average respiratory motion compensation error in three dimensions. The 99{sup th} percentile for the total radial error is 3.85 mm, with the highest contribution of 2.79 mm in superior/inferior (S/I) direction. The absolute mean compensation error is 1.78 mm radially with a 1.27 mm contribution in the S/I direction. Regions of high total error may provide insight into features predicting groups of patients with larger or smaller total errors.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aldegunde, Manuel, E-mail: M.A.Aldegunde-Rodriguez@warwick.ac.uk; Kermode, James R., E-mail: J.R.Kermode@warwick.ac.uk; Zabaras, Nicholas

This paper presents the development of a new exchange–correlation functional from the point of view of machine learning. Using atomization energies of solids and small molecules, we train a linear model for the exchange enhancement factor using a Bayesian approach which allows for the quantification of uncertainties in the predictions. A relevance vector machine is used to automatically select the most relevant terms of the model. We then test this model on atomization energies and also on bulk properties. The average model provides a mean absolute error of only 0.116 eV for the test points of the G2/97 set butmore » a larger 0.314 eV for the test solids. In terms of bulk properties, the prediction for transition metals and monovalent semiconductors has a very low test error. However, as expected, predictions for types of materials not represented in the training set such as ionic solids show much larger errors.« less

Application of Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System for Prediction of Neutron Yield of IR-IECF Facility in High Voltages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adineh-Vand, A.; Torabi, M.; Roshani, G. H.; Taghipour, M.; Feghhi, S. A. H.; Rezaei, M.; Sadati, S. M.

2013-09-01

This paper presents a soft computing based artificial intelligent technique, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to predict the neutron production rate (NPR) of IR-IECF device in wide discharge current and voltage ranges. A hybrid learning algorithm consists of back-propagation and least-squares estimation is used for training the ANFIS model. The performance of the proposed ANFIS model is tested using the experimental data using four performance measures: correlation coefficient, mean absolute error, mean relative error percentage (MRE%) and root mean square error. The obtained results show that the proposed ANFIS model has achieved good agreement with the experimental results. In comparison to the experimental data the proposed ANFIS model has MRE% <1.53 and 2.85 % for training and testing data respectively. Therefore, this model can be used as an efficient tool to predict the NPR in the IR-IECF device.

Using soft computing techniques to predict corrected air permeability using Thomeer parameters, air porosity and grain density

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nooruddin, Hasan A.; Anifowose, Fatai; Abdulraheem, Abdulazeez

2014-03-01

Soft computing techniques are recently becoming very popular in the oil industry. A number of computational intelligence-based predictive methods have been widely applied in the industry with high prediction capabilities. Some of the popular methods include feed-forward neural networks, radial basis function network, generalized regression neural network, functional networks, support vector regression and adaptive network fuzzy inference system. A comparative study among most popular soft computing techniques is presented using a large dataset published in literature describing multimodal pore systems in the Arab D formation. The inputs to the models are air porosity, grain density, and Thomeer parameters obtained using mercury injection capillary pressure profiles. Corrected air permeability is the target variable. Applying developed permeability models in recent reservoir characterization workflow ensures consistency between micro and macro scale information represented mainly by Thomeer parameters and absolute permeability. The dataset was divided into two parts with 80% of data used for training and 20% for testing. The target permeability variable was transformed to the logarithmic scale as a pre-processing step and to show better correlations with the input variables. Statistical and graphical analysis of the results including permeability cross-plots and detailed error measures were created. In general, the comparative study showed very close results among the developed models. The feed-forward neural network permeability model showed the lowest average relative error, average absolute relative error, standard deviations of error and root means squares making it the best model for such problems. Adaptive network fuzzy inference system also showed very good results.

Generalized regression neural network (GRNN)-based approach for colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) retrieval: case study of Connecticut River at Middle Haddam Station, USA.

PubMed

Heddam, Salim

2014-11-01

The prediction of colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) using artificial neural network approaches has received little attention in the past few decades. In this study, colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) was modeled using generalized regression neural network (GRNN) and multiple linear regression (MLR) models as a function of Water temperature (TE), pH, specific conductance (SC), and turbidity (TU). Evaluation of the prediction accuracy of the models is based on the root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), coefficient of correlation (CC), and Willmott's index of agreement (d). The results indicated that GRNN can be applied successfully for prediction of colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM).

Hourly predictive Levenberg-Marquardt ANN and multi linear regression models for predicting of dew point temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zounemat-Kermani, Mohammad

2012-08-01

In this study, the ability of two models of multi linear regression (MLR) and Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) feed-forward neural network was examined to estimate the hourly dew point temperature. Dew point temperature is the temperature at which water vapor in the air condenses into liquid. This temperature can be useful in estimating meteorological variables such as fog, rain, snow, dew, and evapotranspiration and in investigating agronomical issues as stomatal closure in plants. The availability of hourly records of climatic data (air temperature, relative humidity and pressure) which could be used to predict dew point temperature initiated the practice of modeling. Additionally, the wind vector (wind speed magnitude and direction) and conceptual input of weather condition were employed as other input variables. The three quantitative standard statistical performance evaluation measures, i.e. the root mean squared error, mean absolute error, and absolute logarithmic Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient ( {| {{{Log}}({{NS}})} |} ) were employed to evaluate the performances of the developed models. The results showed that applying wind vector and weather condition as input vectors along with meteorological variables could slightly increase the ANN and MLR predictive accuracy. The results also revealed that LM-NN was superior to MLR model and the best performance was obtained by considering all potential input variables in terms of different evaluation criteria.

Validation of the Kp Geomagnetic Index Forecast at CCMC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frechette, B. P.; Mays, M. L.

2017-12-01

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) Space Weather Research Center (SWRC) sub-team provides space weather services to NASA robotic mission operators and science campaigns and prototypes new models, forecasting techniques, and procedures. The Kp index is a measure of geomagnetic disturbances for space weather in the magnetosphere such as geomagnetic storms and substorms. In this study, we performed validation on the Newell et al. (2007) Kp prediction equation from December 2010 to July 2017. The purpose of this research is to understand the Kp forecast performance because it's critical for NASA missions to have confidence in the space weather forecast. This research was done by computing the Kp error for each forecast (average, minimum, maximum) and each synoptic period. Then to quantify forecast performance we computed the mean error, mean absolute error, root mean square error, multiplicative bias and correlation coefficient. A contingency table was made for each forecast and skill scores were computed. The results are compared to the perfect score and reference forecast skill score. In conclusion, the skill score and error results show that the minimum of the predicted Kp over each synoptic period from the Newell et al. (2007) Kp prediction equation performed better than the maximum or average of the prediction. However, persistence (reference forecast) outperformed all of the Kp forecasts (minimum, maximum, and average). Overall, the Newell Kp prediction still predicts within a range of 1, even though persistence beats it.

Improved accuracy of intraocular lens power calculation with the Zeiss IOLMaster.

PubMed

Olsen, Thomas

2007-02-01

This study aimed to demonstrate how the level of accuracy in intraocular lens (IOL) power calculation can be improved with optical biometry using partial optical coherence interferometry (PCI) (Zeiss IOLMaster) and current anterior chamber depth (ACD) prediction algorithms. Intraocular lens power in 461 consecutive cataract operations was calculated using both PCI and ultrasound and the accuracy of the results of each technique were compared. To illustrate the importance of ACD prediction per se, predictions were calculated using both a recently published 5-variable method and the Haigis 2-variable method and the results compared. All calculations were optimized in retrospect to account for systematic errors, including IOL constants and other off-set errors. The average absolute IOL prediction error (observed minus expected refraction) was 0.65 dioptres with ultrasound and 0.43 D with PCI using the 5-variable ACD prediction method (p < 0.00001). The number of predictions within +/- 0.5 D, +/- 1.0 D and +/- 2.0 D of the expected outcome was 62.5%, 92.4% and 99.9% with PCI, compared with 45.5%, 77.3% and 98.4% with ultrasound, respectively (p < 0.00001). The 2-variable ACD method resulted in an average error in PCI predictions of 0.46 D, which was significantly higher than the error in the 5-variable method (p < 0.001). The accuracy of IOL power calculation can be significantly improved using calibrated axial length readings obtained with PCI and modern IOL power calculation formulas incorporating the latest generation ACD prediction algorithms.

Flood loss model transfer: on the value of additional data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schröter, Kai; Lüdtke, Stefan; Vogel, Kristin; Kreibich, Heidi; Thieken, Annegret; Merz, Bruno

2017-04-01

The transfer of models across geographical regions and flood events is a key challenge in flood loss estimation. Variations in local characteristics and continuous system changes require regional adjustments and continuous updating with current evidence. However, acquiring data on damage influencing factors is expensive and therefore assessing the value of additional data in terms of model reliability and performance improvement is of high relevance. The present study utilizes empirical flood loss data on direct damage to residential buildings available from computer aided telephone interviews that were carried out after the floods in 2002, 2005, 2006, 2010, 2011 and 2013 mainly in the Elbe and Danube catchments in Germany. Flood loss model performance is assessed for incrementally increased numbers of loss data which are differentiated according to region and flood event. Two flood loss modeling approaches are considered: (i) a multi-variable flood loss model approach using Random Forests and (ii) a uni-variable stage damage function. Both model approaches are embedded in a bootstrapping process which allows evaluating the uncertainty of model predictions. Predictive performance of both models is evaluated with regard to mean bias, mean absolute and mean squared errors, as well as hit rate and sharpness. Mean bias and mean absolute error give information about the accuracy of model predictions; mean squared error and sharpness about precision and hit rate is an indicator for model reliability. The results of incremental, regional and temporal updating demonstrate the usefulness of additional data to improve model predictive performance and increase model reliability, particularly in a spatial-temporal transfer setting.

Determination of reaeration-rate coefficients of the Wabash River, Indiana, by the modified tracer technique

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crawford, Charles G.

1985-01-01

The modified tracer technique was used to determine reaeration-rate coefficients in the Wabash River in reaches near Lafayette and Terre Haute, Indiana, at streamflows ranging from 2,310 to 7,400 cu ft/sec. Chemically pure (CP grade) ethylene was used as the tracer gas, and rhodamine-WT dye was used as the dispersion-dilution tracer. Reaeration coefficients determined for a 13.5-mi reach near Terre Haute, Indiana, at streamflows of 3,360 and 7,400 cu ft/sec (71% and 43% flow duration) were 1.4/day and 1.1/day at 20 C, respectively. Reaeration-rate coefficients determined for a 18.4-mile reach near Lafayette, Indiana, at streamflows of 2,310 and 3,420 cu ft/sec (70% and 53 % flow duration), were 1.2/day and 0.8/day at 20 C, respectively. None of the commonly used equations found in the literature predicted reaeration-rate coefficients similar to those measured for reaches of the Wabash River near Lafayette and Terre Haute. The average absolute prediction error for 10 commonly used reaeration equations ranged from 22% to 154%. Prediction error was much smaller in the reach near Terre Haute than in the reach near Lafayette. The overall average of the absolute prediction error for all 10 equations was 22% for the reach near Terre Haute and 128% for the reach near Lafayette. Confidence limits of results obtained from the modified tracer technique were smaller than those obtained from the equations in the literature. 

A digital, constant-frequency pulsed phase-locked-loop instrument for real-time, absolute ultrasonic phase measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haldren, H. A.; Perey, D. F.; Yost, W. T.; Cramer, K. E.; Gupta, M. C.

2018-05-01

A digitally controlled instrument for conducting single-frequency and swept-frequency ultrasonic phase measurements has been developed based on a constant-frequency pulsed phase-locked-loop (CFPPLL) design. This instrument uses a pair of direct digital synthesizers to generate an ultrasonically transceived tone-burst and an internal reference wave for phase comparison. Real-time, constant-frequency phase tracking in an interrogated specimen is possible with a resolution of 0.000 38 rad (0.022°), and swept-frequency phase measurements can be obtained. Using phase measurements, an absolute thickness in borosilicate glass is presented to show the instrument's efficacy, and these results are compared to conventional ultrasonic pulse-echo time-of-flight (ToF) measurements. The newly developed instrument predicted the thickness with a mean error of -0.04 μm and a standard deviation of error of 1.35 μm. Additionally, the CFPPLL instrument shows a lower measured phase error in the absence of changing temperature and couplant thickness than high-resolution cross-correlation ToF measurements at a similar signal-to-noise ratio. By showing higher accuracy and precision than conventional pulse-echo ToF measurements and lower phase errors than cross-correlation ToF measurements, the new digitally controlled CFPPLL instrument provides high-resolution absolute ultrasonic velocity or path-length measurements in solids or liquids, as well as tracking of material property changes with high sensitivity. The ability to obtain absolute phase measurements allows for many new applications than possible with previous ultrasonic pulsed phase-locked loop instruments. In addition to improved resolution, swept-frequency phase measurements add useful capability in measuring properties of layered structures, such as bonded joints, or materials which exhibit non-linear frequency-dependent behavior, such as dispersive media.

Prediction of BP reactivity to talking using hybrid soft computing approaches.

PubMed

Kaur, Gurmanik; Arora, Ajat Shatru; Jain, Vijender Kumar

2014-01-01

High blood pressure (BP) is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular diseases. Therefore, optimal precision in measurement of BP is appropriate in clinical and research studies. In this work, anthropometric characteristics including age, height, weight, body mass index (BMI), and arm circumference (AC) were used as independent predictor variables for the prediction of BP reactivity to talking. Principal component analysis (PCA) was fused with artificial neural network (ANN), adaptive neurofuzzy inference system (ANFIS), and least square-support vector machine (LS-SVM) model to remove the multicollinearity effect among anthropometric predictor variables. The statistical tests in terms of coefficient of determination (R (2)), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) revealed that PCA based LS-SVM (PCA-LS-SVM) model produced a more efficient prediction of BP reactivity as compared to other models. This assessment presents the importance and advantages posed by PCA fused prediction models for prediction of biological variables.

Intelligent Ensemble Forecasting System of Stock Market Fluctuations Based on Symetric and Asymetric Wavelet Functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lahmiri, Salim; Boukadoum, Mounir

2015-08-01

We present a new ensemble system for stock market returns prediction where continuous wavelet transform (CWT) is used to analyze return series and backpropagation neural networks (BPNNs) for processing CWT-based coefficients, determining the optimal ensemble weights, and providing final forecasts. Particle swarm optimization (PSO) is used for finding optimal weights and biases for each BPNN. To capture symmetry/asymmetry in the underlying data, three wavelet functions with different shapes are adopted. The proposed ensemble system was tested on three Asian stock markets: The Hang Seng, KOSPI, and Taiwan stock market data. Three statistical metrics were used to evaluate the forecasting accuracy; including, mean of absolute errors (MAE), root mean of squared errors (RMSE), and mean of absolute deviations (MADs). Experimental results showed that our proposed ensemble system outperformed the individual CWT-ANN models each with different wavelet function. In addition, the proposed ensemble system outperformed the conventional autoregressive moving average process. As a result, the proposed ensemble system is suitable to capture symmetry/asymmetry in financial data fluctuations for better prediction accuracy.

Water Level Prediction of Lake Cascade Mahakam Using Adaptive Neural Network Backpropagation (ANNBP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mislan; Gaffar, A. F. O.; Haviluddin; Puspitasari, N.

2018-04-01

A natural hazard information and flood events are indispensable as a form of prevention and improvement. One of the causes is flooding in the areas around the lake. Therefore, forecasting the surface of Lake water level to anticipate flooding is required. The purpose of this paper is implemented computational intelligence method namely Adaptive Neural Network Backpropagation (ANNBP) to forecasting the Lake Cascade Mahakam. Based on experiment, performance of ANNBP indicated that Lake water level prediction have been accurate by using mean square error (MSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). In other words, computational intelligence method can produce good accuracy. A hybrid and optimization of computational intelligence are focus in the future work.

Theoretical prediction of pullout strengths for dental and orthopaedic screws with conical profile and buttress threads.

PubMed

Shih, Kao-Shang; Hou, Sheng-Mou; Lin, Shang-Chih

2017-12-01

The pullout strength of a screw is an indicator of how secure bone fragments are being held in place. Such bone-purchasing ability is sensitive to bone quality, thread design, and the pilot hole, and is often evaluated by experimental and numerical methods. Historically, there are some mathematical formulae to simulate the screw withdrawal from the synthetic bone. There are great variations in screw specifications. However, extensive investigation of the correlation between experimental and analytical results has not been reported in literature. Referring to the literature formulae, this study aims to evaluate the differences in the calculated pullout strengths. The pullout tests of the surgical screws are measured and the sawbone is used as the testing block. The absolute errors and correlation coefficients of the experimental and analytical results are calculated as the comparison baselines of the formulae. The absolute error of the dental, traumatic, and spinal groups are 21.7%, 95.5%, and 37.0%, respectively. For the screws with a conical profile and/or tiny threads, the calculated and measured results are not well correlated. The formulae are not accurate indicators of the pullout strengths of the screws where the design parameters are slightly varied. However, the experimental and numerical results are highly correlated for the cylindrical screws. The pullout strength of a conical screw is higher than that of its counterpart, but all formulae consistently predict the opposite results. In general, the bony purchase of the buttress threads is securer than that of the symmetric thread. An absolute error of up to 51.4% indicates the theoretical results cannot predict the actual value of the pullout strength. Only thread diameter, pitch, and depth are considered in the investigated formulae. The thread profile and shape should be formulated to modify the slippage mechanism at the bone-screw interfaces and simulate the strength change in the squeezed bones, especially for the conical screw. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Water-quality models to assess algal community dynamics, water quality, and fish habitat suitability for two agricultural land-use dominated lakes in Minnesota, 2014

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Erik A.; Kiesling, Richard L.; Ziegeweid, Jeffrey R.

2017-07-20

Fish habitat can degrade in many lakes due to summer blue-green algal blooms. Predictive models are needed to better manage and mitigate loss of fish habitat due to these changes. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, developed predictive water-quality models for two agricultural land-use dominated lakes in Minnesota—Madison Lake and Pearl Lake, which are part of Minnesota’s sentinel lakes monitoring program—to assess algal community dynamics, water quality, and fish habitat suitability of these two lakes under recent (2014) meteorological conditions. The interaction of basin processes to these two lakes, through the delivery of nutrient loads, were simulated using CE-QUAL-W2, a carbon-based, laterally averaged, two-dimensional water-quality model that predicts distribution of temperature and oxygen from interactions between nutrient cycling, primary production, and trophic dynamics.The CE-QUAL-W2 models successfully predicted water temperature and dissolved oxygen on the basis of the two metrics of mean absolute error and root mean square error. For Madison Lake, the mean absolute error and root mean square error were 0.53 and 0.68 degree Celsius, respectively, for the vertical temperature profile comparisons; for Pearl Lake, the mean absolute error and root mean square error were 0.71 and 0.95 degree Celsius, respectively, for the vertical temperature profile comparisons. Temperature and dissolved oxygen were key metrics for calibration targets. These calibrated lake models also simulated algal community dynamics and water quality. The model simulations presented potential explanations for persistently large total phosphorus concentrations in Madison Lake, key differences in nutrient concentrations between these lakes, and summer blue-green algal bloom persistence.Fish habitat suitability simulations for cool-water and warm-water fish indicated that, in general, both lakes contained a large proportion of good-growth habitat and a sustained period of optimal growth habitat in the summer, without any periods of lethal oxythermal habitat. For Madison and Pearl Lakes, examples of important cool-water fish, particularly game fish, include northern pike (Esox lucius), walleye (Sander vitreus), and black crappie (Pomoxis nigromaculatus); examples of important warm-water fish include bluegill (Lepomis macrochirus), largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides), and smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu). Sensitivity analyses were completed to understand lake response effects through the use of controlled departures on certain calibrated model parameters and input nutrient loads. These sensitivity analyses also operated as land-use change scenarios because alterations in agricultural practices, for example, could potentially increase or decrease nutrient loads.

Astigmatism error modification for absolute shape reconstruction using Fourier transform method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Yuhang; Li, Qiang; Gao, Bo; Liu, Ang; Xu, Kaiyuan; Wei, Xiaohong; Chai, Liqun

2014-12-01

A method is proposed to modify astigmatism errors in absolute shape reconstruction of optical plane using Fourier transform method. If a transmission and reflection flat are used in an absolute test, two translation measurements lead to obtain the absolute shapes by making use of the characteristic relationship between the differential and original shapes in spatial frequency domain. However, because the translation device cannot guarantee the test and reference flats rigidly parallel to each other after the translations, a tilt error exists in the obtained differential data, which caused power and astigmatism errors in the reconstructed shapes. In order to modify the astigmatism errors, a rotation measurement is added. Based on the rotation invariability of the form of Zernike polynomial in circular domain, the astigmatism terms are calculated by solving polynomial coefficient equations related to the rotation differential data, and subsequently the astigmatism terms including error are modified. Computer simulation proves the validity of the proposed method.

Climate Prediction for Brazil's Nordeste: Performance of Empirical and Numerical Modeling Methods.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moura, Antonio Divino; Hastenrath, Stefan

2004-07-01

Comparisons of performance of climate forecast methods require consistency in the predictand and a long common reference period. For Brazil's Nordeste, empirical methods developed at the University of Wisconsin use preseason (October January) rainfall and January indices of the fields of meridional wind component and sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Atlantic and the equatorial Pacific as input to stepwise multiple regression and neural networking. These are used to predict the March June rainfall at a network of 27 stations. An experiment at the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Columbia University, with a numerical model (ECHAM4.5) used global SST information through February to predict the March June rainfall at three grid points in the Nordeste. The predictands for the empirical and numerical model forecasts are correlated at +0.96, and the period common to the independent portion of record of the empirical prediction and the numerical modeling is 1968 99. Over this period, predicted versus observed rainfall are evaluated in terms of correlation, root-mean-square error, absolute error, and bias. Performance is high for both approaches. Numerical modeling produces a correlation of +0.68, moderate errors, and strong negative bias. For the empirical methods, errors and bias are small, and correlations of +0.73 and +0.82 are reached between predicted and observed rainfall.

Bridge Structure Deformation Prediction Based on GNSS Data Using Kalman-ARIMA-GARCH Model

PubMed Central

Li, Xiaoqing; Wang, Yu

2018-01-01

Bridges are an essential part of the ground transportation system. Health monitoring is fundamentally important for the safety and service life of bridges. A large amount of structural information is obtained from various sensors using sensing technology, and the data processing has become a challenging issue. To improve the prediction accuracy of bridge structure deformation based on data mining and to accurately evaluate the time-varying characteristics of bridge structure performance evolution, this paper proposes a new method for bridge structure deformation prediction, which integrates the Kalman filter, autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA), and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH). Firstly, the raw deformation data is directly pre-processed using the Kalman filter to reduce the noise. After that, the linear recursive ARIMA model is established to analyze and predict the structure deformation. Finally, the nonlinear recursive GARCH model is introduced to further improve the accuracy of the prediction. Simulation results based on measured sensor data from the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) deformation monitoring system demonstrated that: (1) the Kalman filter is capable of denoising the bridge deformation monitoring data; (2) the prediction accuracy of the proposed Kalman-ARIMA-GARCH model is satisfactory, where the mean absolute error increases only from 3.402 mm to 5.847 mm with the increment of the prediction step; and (3) in comparision to the Kalman-ARIMA model, the Kalman-ARIMA-GARCH model results in superior prediction accuracy as it includes partial nonlinear characteristics (heteroscedasticity); the mean absolute error of five-step prediction using the proposed model is improved by 10.12%. This paper provides a new way for structural behavior prediction based on data processing, which can lay a foundation for the early warning of bridge health monitoring system based on sensor data using sensing technology. PMID:29351254

The value of surrogate endpoints for predicting real-world survival across five cancer types.

PubMed

Shafrin, Jason; Brookmeyer, Ron; Peneva, Desi; Park, Jinhee; Zhang, Jie; Figlin, Robert A; Lakdawalla, Darius N

2016-01-01

It is unclear how well different outcome measures in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) perform in predicting real-world cancer survival. We assess the ability of RCT overall survival (OS) and surrogate endpoints - progression-free survival (PFS) and time to progression (TTP) - to predict real-world OS across five cancers. We identified 20 treatments and 31 indications for breast, colorectal, lung, ovarian, and pancreatic cancer that had a phase III RCT reporting median OS and median PFS or TTP. Median real-world OS was determined using a Kaplan-Meier estimator applied to patients in the Surveillance and Epidemiology End Results (SEER)-Medicare database (1991-2010). Performance of RCT OS and PFS/TTP in predicting real-world OS was measured using t-tests, median absolute prediction error, and R(2) from linear regressions. Among 72,600 SEER-Medicare patients similar to RCT participants, median survival was 5.9 months for trial surrogates, 14.1 months for trial OS, and 13.4 months for real-world OS. For this sample, regression models using clinical trial OS and trial surrogates as independent variables predicted real-world OS significantly better than models using surrogates alone (P = 0.026). Among all real-world patients using sample treatments (N = 309,182), however, adding trial OS did not improve predictive power over predictions based on surrogates alone (P = 0.194). Results were qualitatively similar using median absolute prediction error and R(2) metrics. Among the five tumor types investigated, trial OS and surrogates were each independently valuable in predicting real-world OS outcomes for patients similar to trial participants. In broader real-world populations, however, trial OS added little incremental value over surrogates alone.

Bridge Structure Deformation Prediction Based on GNSS Data Using Kalman-ARIMA-GARCH Model.

PubMed

Xin, Jingzhou; Zhou, Jianting; Yang, Simon X; Li, Xiaoqing; Wang, Yu

2018-01-19

Bridges are an essential part of the ground transportation system. Health monitoring is fundamentally important for the safety and service life of bridges. A large amount of structural information is obtained from various sensors using sensing technology, and the data processing has become a challenging issue. To improve the prediction accuracy of bridge structure deformation based on data mining and to accurately evaluate the time-varying characteristics of bridge structure performance evolution, this paper proposes a new method for bridge structure deformation prediction, which integrates the Kalman filter, autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA), and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH). Firstly, the raw deformation data is directly pre-processed using the Kalman filter to reduce the noise. After that, the linear recursive ARIMA model is established to analyze and predict the structure deformation. Finally, the nonlinear recursive GARCH model is introduced to further improve the accuracy of the prediction. Simulation results based on measured sensor data from the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) deformation monitoring system demonstrated that: (1) the Kalman filter is capable of denoising the bridge deformation monitoring data; (2) the prediction accuracy of the proposed Kalman-ARIMA-GARCH model is satisfactory, where the mean absolute error increases only from 3.402 mm to 5.847 mm with the increment of the prediction step; and (3) in comparision to the Kalman-ARIMA model, the Kalman-ARIMA-GARCH model results in superior prediction accuracy as it includes partial nonlinear characteristics (heteroscedasticity); the mean absolute error of five-step prediction using the proposed model is improved by 10.12%. This paper provides a new way for structural behavior prediction based on data processing, which can lay a foundation for the early warning of bridge health monitoring system based on sensor data using sensing technology.

Using a Hybrid Model to Forecast the Prevalence of Schistosomiasis in Humans.

PubMed

Zhou, Lingling; Xia, Jing; Yu, Lijing; Wang, Ying; Shi, Yun; Cai, Shunxiang; Nie, Shaofa

2016-03-23

We previously proposed a hybrid model combining both the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and the nonlinear autoregressive neural network (NARNN) models in forecasting schistosomiasis. Our purpose in the current study was to forecast the annual prevalence of human schistosomiasis in Yangxin County, using our ARIMA-NARNN model, thereby further certifying the reliability of our hybrid model. We used the ARIMA, NARNN and ARIMA-NARNN models to fit and forecast the annual prevalence of schistosomiasis. The modeling time range included was the annual prevalence from 1956 to 2008 while the testing time range included was from 2009 to 2012. The mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were used to measure the model performance. We reconstructed the hybrid model to forecast the annual prevalence from 2013 to 2016. The modeling and testing errors generated by the ARIMA-NARNN model were lower than those obtained from either the single ARIMA or NARNN models. The predicted annual prevalence from 2013 to 2016 demonstrated an initial decreasing trend, followed by an increase. The ARIMA-NARNN model can be well applied to analyze surveillance data for early warning systems for the control and elimination of schistosomiasis.

Spatial and temporal variability of the overall error of National Atmospheric Deposition Program measurements determined by the USGS collocated-sampler program, water years 1989-2001

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wetherbee, G.A.; Latysh, N.E.; Gordon, J.D.

2005-01-01

Data from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) collocated-sampler program for the National Atmospheric Deposition Program/National Trends Network (NADP/NTN) are used to estimate the overall error of NADP/NTN measurements. Absolute errors are estimated by comparison of paired measurements from collocated instruments. Spatial and temporal differences in absolute error were identified and are consistent with longitudinal distributions of NADP/NTN measurements and spatial differences in precipitation characteristics. The magnitude of error for calcium, magnesium, ammonium, nitrate, and sulfate concentrations, specific conductance, and sample volume is of minor environmental significance to data users. Data collected after a 1994 sample-handling protocol change are prone to less absolute error than data collected prior to 1994. Absolute errors are smaller during non-winter months than during winter months for selected constituents at sites where frozen precipitation is common. Minimum resolvable differences are estimated for different regions of the USA to aid spatial and temporal watershed analyses.

Toward Biopredictive Dissolution for Enteric Coated Dosage Forms.

PubMed

Al-Gousous, J; Amidon, G L; Langguth, P

2016-06-06

The aim of this work was to develop a phosphate buffer based dissolution method for enteric-coated formulations with improved biopredictivity for fasted conditions. Two commercially available enteric-coated aspirin products were used as model formulations (Aspirin Protect 300 mg, and Walgreens Aspirin 325 mg). The disintegration performance of these products in a physiological 8 mM pH 6.5 bicarbonate buffer (representing the conditions in the proximal small intestine) was used as a standard to optimize the employed phosphate buffer molarity. To account for the fact that a pH and buffer molarity gradient exists along the small intestine, the introduction of such a gradient was proposed for products with prolonged lag times (when it leads to a release lower than 75% in the first hour post acid stage) in the proposed buffer. This would allow the method also to predict the performance of later-disintegrating products. Dissolution performance using the accordingly developed method was compared to that observed when using two well-established dissolution methods: the United States Pharmacopeia (USP) method and blank fasted state simulated intestinal fluid (FaSSIF). The resulting dissolution profiles were convoluted using GastroPlus software to obtain predicted pharmacokinetic profiles. A pharmacokinetic study on healthy human volunteers was performed to evaluate the predictions made by the different dissolution setups. The novel method provided the best prediction, by a relatively wide margin, for the difference between the lag times of the two tested formulations, indicating its being able to predict the post gastric emptying onset of drug release with reasonable accuracy. Both the new and the blank FaSSIF methods showed potential for establishing in vitro-in vivo correlation (IVIVC) concerning the prediction of Cmax and AUC0-24 (prediction errors not more than 20%). However, these predictions are strongly affected by the highly variable first pass metabolism necessitating the evaluation of an absorption rate metric that is more independent of the first-pass effect. The Cmax/AUC0-24 ratio was selected for this purpose. Regarding this metric's predictions, the new method provided very good prediction of the two products' performances relative to each other (only 1.05% prediction error in this regard), while its predictions for the individual products' values in absolute terms were borderline, narrowly missing the regulatory 20% prediction error limits (21.51% for Aspirin Protect and 22.58% for Walgreens Aspirin). The blank FaSSIF-based method provided good Cmax/AUC0-24 ratio prediction, in absolute terms, for Aspirin Protect (9.05% prediction error), but its prediction for Walgreens Aspirin (33.97% prediction error) was overwhelmingly poor. Thus it gave practically the same average but much higher maximum prediction errors compared to the new method, and it was strongly overdiscriminating as for predicting their performances relative to one another. The USP method, despite not being overdiscriminating, provided poor predictions of the individual products' Cmax/AUC0-24 ratios. This indicates that, overall, the new method is of improved biopredictivity compared to established methods.

Predicting clicks of PubMed articles.

PubMed

Mao, Yuqing; Lu, Zhiyong

2013-01-01

Predicting the popularity or access usage of an article has the potential to improve the quality of PubMed searches. We can model the click trend of each article as its access changes over time by mining the PubMed query logs, which contain the previous access history for all articles. In this article, we examine the access patterns produced by PubMed users in two years (July 2009 to July 2011). We explore the time series of accesses for each article in the query logs, model the trends with regression approaches, and subsequently use the models for prediction. We show that the click trends of PubMed articles are best fitted with a log-normal regression model. This model allows the number of accesses an article receives and the time since it first becomes available in PubMed to be related via quadratic and logistic functions, with the model parameters to be estimated via maximum likelihood. Our experiments predicting the number of accesses for an article based on its past usage demonstrate that the mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error of our model are 4.0% and 8.1% lower than the power-law regression model, respectively. The log-normal distribution is also shown to perform significantly better than a previous prediction method based on a human memory theory in cognitive science. This work warrants further investigation on the utility of such a log-normal regression approach towards improving information access in PubMed.

Predicting clicks of PubMed articles

PubMed Central

Mao, Yuqing; Lu, Zhiyong

2013-01-01

Predicting the popularity or access usage of an article has the potential to improve the quality of PubMed searches. We can model the click trend of each article as its access changes over time by mining the PubMed query logs, which contain the previous access history for all articles. In this article, we examine the access patterns produced by PubMed users in two years (July 2009 to July 2011). We explore the time series of accesses for each article in the query logs, model the trends with regression approaches, and subsequently use the models for prediction. We show that the click trends of PubMed articles are best fitted with a log-normal regression model. This model allows the number of accesses an article receives and the time since it first becomes available in PubMed to be related via quadratic and logistic functions, with the model parameters to be estimated via maximum likelihood. Our experiments predicting the number of accesses for an article based on its past usage demonstrate that the mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error of our model are 4.0% and 8.1% lower than the power-law regression model, respectively. The log-normal distribution is also shown to perform significantly better than a previous prediction method based on a human memory theory in cognitive science. This work warrants further investigation on the utility of such a log-normal regression approach towards improving information access in PubMed. PMID:24551386

Forecasting in foodservice: model development, testing, and evaluation.

PubMed

Miller, J L; Thompson, P A; Orabella, M M

1991-05-01

This study was designed to develop, test, and evaluate mathematical models appropriate for forecasting menu-item production demand in foodservice. Data were collected from residence and dining hall foodservices at Ohio State University. Objectives of the study were to collect, code, and analyze the data; develop and test models using actual operation data; and compare forecasting results with current methods in use. Customer count was forecast using deseasonalized simple exponential smoothing. Menu-item demand was forecast by multiplying the count forecast by a predicted preference statistic. Forecasting models were evaluated using mean squared error, mean absolute deviation, and mean absolute percentage error techniques. All models were more accurate than current methods. A broad spectrum of forecasting techniques could be used by foodservice managers with access to a personal computer and spread-sheet and database-management software. The findings indicate that mathematical forecasting techniques may be effective in foodservice operations to control costs, increase productivity, and maximize profits.

Prediction of surface roughness in turning of Ti-6Al-4V using cutting parameters, forces and tool vibration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahu, Neelesh Kumar; Andhare, Atul B.; Andhale, Sandip; Raju Abraham, Roja

2018-04-01

Present work deals with prediction of surface roughness using cutting parameters along with in-process measured cutting force and tool vibration (acceleration) during turning of Ti-6Al-4V with cubic boron nitride (CBN) inserts. Full factorial design is used for design of experiments using cutting speed, feed rate and depth of cut as design variables. Prediction model for surface roughness is developed using response surface methodology with cutting speed, feed rate, depth of cut, resultant cutting force and acceleration as control variables. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) is performed to find out significant terms in the model. Insignificant terms are removed after performing statistical test using backward elimination approach. Effect of each control variables on surface roughness is also studied. Correlation coefficient (R2 pred) of 99.4% shows that model correctly explains the experiment results and it behaves well even when adjustment is made in factors or new factors are added or eliminated. Validation of model is done with five fresh experiments and measured forces and acceleration values. Average absolute error between RSM model and experimental measured surface roughness is found to be 10.2%. Additionally, an artificial neural network model is also developed for prediction of surface roughness. The prediction results of modified regression model are compared with ANN. It is found that RSM model and ANN (average absolute error 7.5%) are predicting roughness with more than 90% accuracy. From the results obtained it is found that including cutting force and vibration for prediction of surface roughness gives better prediction than considering only cutting parameters. Also, ANN gives better prediction over RSM models.

Impact of nuclear cataract density on postoperative refractive outcome: IOL Master versus ultrasound.

PubMed

Ueda, Tetsuo; Taketani, Futoshi; Ota, Takeo; Hara, Yoshiaki

2007-01-01

To evaluate the effect of cataract density on the postoperative refractive outcome. For 59 nuclear cataract eyes, the axial length was preoperatively measured by the IOL Master (Zeiss, Germany) and ultrasound (US; UD-6000, Tomey, Japan) and the cataract density by EAS-1000 (Nidek, Japan). The prediction error was used as evaluation of the accuracy of ocular biometry. There were significant differences between IOL Master and US in the mean error (0.24 +/- 0.63 vs. 0.69 +/- 0.64 dpt, p < 0.001) and the mean absolute error (0.57 +/- 0.36 vs. 0.79 +/- 0.53 dpt, p < 0.001). The cataract density was significantly correlated with the prediction error with IOL Master (r = 0.24, p = 0.03) and US (r = 0.29, p = 0.01). Measurements with the IOL Master are slightly affected by the cataract density due to the refractive index change, but its accuracy is less affected than US. (c) 2007 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Comparison of Methodologies Using Estimated or Measured Values of Total Corneal Astigmatism for Toric Intraocular Lens Power Calculation.

PubMed

Ferreira, Tiago B; Ribeiro, Paulo; Ribeiro, Filomena J; O'Neill, João G

2017-12-01

To compare the prediction error in the calculation of toric intraocular lenses (IOLs) associated with methods that estimate the power of the posterior corneal surface (ie, Barrett toric calculator and Abulafia-Koch formula) with that of methods that consider real measures obtained using Scheimpflug imaging: a software that uses vectorial calculation (Panacea toric calculator: http://www.panaceaiolandtoriccalculator.com) and a ray tracing software (PhacoOptics, Aarhus Nord, Denmark). In 107 eyes of 107 patients undergoing cataract surgery with toric IOL implantation (Acrysof IQ Toric; Alcon Laboratories, Inc., Fort Worth, TX), predicted residual astigmatism by each calculation method was compared with manifest refractive astigmatism. Prediction error in residual astigmatism was calculated using vector analysis. All calculation methods resulted in overcorrection of with-the-rule astigmatism and undercorrection of against-the-rule astigmatism. Both estimation methods resulted in lower mean and centroid astigmatic prediction errors, and a larger number of eyes within 0.50 diopters (D) of absolute prediction error than methods considering real measures (P < .001). Centroid prediction error (CPE) was 0.07 D at 172° for the Barrett toric calculator and 0.13 D at 174° for the Abulafia-Koch formula (combined with Holladay calculator). For methods using real posterior corneal surface measurements, CPE was 0.25 D at 173° for the Panacea calculator and 0.29 D at 171° for the ray tracing software. The Barrett toric calculator and Abulafia-Koch formula yielded the lowest astigmatic prediction errors. Directly evaluating total corneal power for toric IOL calculation was not superior to estimating it. [J Refract Surg. 2017;33(12):794-800.]. Copyright 2017, SLACK Incorporated.

Comparison of Two Hybrid Models for Forecasting the Incidence of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Jiangsu Province, China.

PubMed

Wu, Wei; Guo, Junqiao; An, Shuyi; Guan, Peng; Ren, Yangwu; Xia, Linzi; Zhou, Baosen

2015-01-01

Cases of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) are widely distributed in eastern Asia, especially in China, Russia, and Korea. It is proved to be a difficult task to eliminate HFRS completely because of the diverse animal reservoirs and effects of global warming. Reliable forecasting is useful for the prevention and control of HFRS. Two hybrid models, one composed of nonlinear autoregressive neural network (NARNN) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) the other composed of generalized regression neural network (GRNN) and ARIMA were constructed to predict the incidence of HFRS in the future one year. Performances of the two hybrid models were compared with ARIMA model. The ARIMA, ARIMA-NARNN ARIMA-GRNN model fitted and predicted the seasonal fluctuation well. Among the three models, the mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of ARIMA-NARNN hybrid model was the lowest both in modeling stage and forecasting stage. As for the ARIMA-GRNN hybrid model, the MSE, MAE and MAPE of modeling performance and the MSE and MAE of forecasting performance were less than the ARIMA model, but the MAPE of forecasting performance did not improve. Developing and applying the ARIMA-NARNN hybrid model is an effective method to make us better understand the epidemic characteristics of HFRS and could be helpful to the prevention and control of HFRS.

Prediction of the compression ratio for municipal solid waste using decision tree.

PubMed

Heshmati R, Ali Akbar; Mokhtari, Maryam; Shakiba Rad, Saeed

2014-01-01

The compression ratio of municipal solid waste (MSW) is an essential parameter for evaluation of waste settlement and landfill design. However, no appropriate model has been proposed to estimate the waste compression ratio so far. In this study, a decision tree method was utilized to predict the waste compression ratio (C'c). The tree was constructed using Quinlan's M5 algorithm. A reliable database retrieved from the literature was used to develop a practical model that relates C'c to waste composition and properties, including dry density, dry weight water content, and percentage of biodegradable organic waste using the decision tree method. The performance of the developed model was examined in terms of different statistical criteria, including correlation coefficient, root mean squared error, mean absolute error and mean bias error, recommended by researchers. The obtained results demonstrate that the suggested model is able to evaluate the compression ratio of MSW effectively.

Correcting for Optimistic Prediction in Small Data Sets

PubMed Central

Smith, Gordon C. S.; Seaman, Shaun R.; Wood, Angela M.; Royston, Patrick; White, Ian R.

2014-01-01

The C statistic is a commonly reported measure of screening test performance. Optimistic estimation of the C statistic is a frequent problem because of overfitting of statistical models in small data sets, and methods exist to correct for this issue. However, many studies do not use such methods, and those that do correct for optimism use diverse methods, some of which are known to be biased. We used clinical data sets (United Kingdom Down syndrome screening data from Glasgow (1991–2003), Edinburgh (1999–2003), and Cambridge (1990–2006), as well as Scottish national pregnancy discharge data (2004–2007)) to evaluate different approaches to adjustment for optimism. We found that sample splitting, cross-validation without replication, and leave-1-out cross-validation produced optimism-adjusted estimates of the C statistic that were biased and/or associated with greater absolute error than other available methods. Cross-validation with replication, bootstrapping, and a new method (leave-pair-out cross-validation) all generated unbiased optimism-adjusted estimates of the C statistic and had similar absolute errors in the clinical data set. Larger simulation studies confirmed that all 3 methods performed similarly with 10 or more events per variable, or when the C statistic was 0.9 or greater. However, with lower events per variable or lower C statistics, bootstrapping tended to be optimistic but with lower absolute and mean squared errors than both methods of cross-validation. PMID:24966219

Assessment of MRI-Based Automated Fetal Cerebral Cortical Folding Measures in Prediction of Gestational Age in the Third Trimester.

PubMed

Wu, J; Awate, S P; Licht, D J; Clouchoux, C; du Plessis, A J; Avants, B B; Vossough, A; Gee, J C; Limperopoulos, C

2015-07-01

Traditional methods of dating a pregnancy based on history or sonographic assessment have a large variation in the third trimester. We aimed to assess the ability of various quantitative measures of brain cortical folding on MR imaging in determining fetal gestational age in the third trimester. We evaluated 8 different quantitative cortical folding measures to predict gestational age in 33 healthy fetuses by using T2-weighted fetal MR imaging. We compared the accuracy of the prediction of gestational age by these cortical folding measures with the accuracy of prediction by brain volume measurement and by a previously reported semiquantitative visual scale of brain maturity. Regression models were constructed, and measurement biases and variances were determined via a cross-validation procedure. The cortical folding measures are accurate in the estimation and prediction of gestational age (mean of the absolute error, 0.43 ± 0.45 weeks) and perform better than (P = .024) brain volume (mean of the absolute error, 0.72 ± 0.61 weeks) or sonography measures (SDs approximately 1.5 weeks, as reported in literature). Prediction accuracy is comparable with that of the semiquantitative visual assessment score (mean, 0.57 ± 0.41 weeks). Quantitative cortical folding measures such as global average curvedness can be an accurate and reliable estimator of gestational age and brain maturity for healthy fetuses in the third trimester and have the potential to be an indicator of brain-growth delays for at-risk fetuses and preterm neonates. © 2015 by American Journal of Neuroradiology.

SU-F-E-09: Respiratory Signal Prediction Based On Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Network Using Adjustable Training Samples

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sun, W; Jiang, M; Yin, F

Purpose: Dynamic tracking of moving organs, such as lung and liver tumors, under radiation therapy requires prediction of organ motions prior to delivery. The shift of moving organ may change a lot due to huge transform of respiration at different periods. This study aims to reduce the influence of that changes using adjustable training signals and multi-layer perceptron neural network (ASMLP). Methods: Respiratory signals obtained using a Real-time Position Management(RPM) device were used for this study. The ASMLP uses two multi-layer perceptron neural networks(MLPs) to infer respiration position alternately and the training sample will be updated with time. Firstly, amore » Savitzky-Golay finite impulse response smoothing filter was established to smooth the respiratory signal. Secondly, two same MLPs were developed to estimate respiratory position from its previous positions separately. Weights and thresholds were updated to minimize network errors according to Leverberg-Marquart optimization algorithm through backward propagation method. Finally, MLP 1 was used to predict 120∼150s respiration position using 0∼120s training signals. At the same time, MLP 2 was trained using 30∼150s training signals. Then MLP is used to predict 150∼180s training signals according to 30∼150s training signals. The respiration position is predicted as this way until it was finished. Results: In this experiment, the two methods were used to predict 2.5 minute respiratory signals. For predicting 1s ahead of response time, correlation coefficient was improved from 0.8250(MLP method) to 0.8856(ASMLP method). Besides, a 30% improvement of mean absolute error between MLP(0.1798 on average) and ASMLP(0.1267 on average) was achieved. For predicting 2s ahead of response time, correlation coefficient was improved from 0.61415 to 0.7098.Mean absolute error of MLP method(0.3111 on average) was reduced by 35% using ASMLP method(0.2020 on average). Conclusion: The preliminary results demonstrate that the ASMLP respiratory prediction method is more accurate than MLP method and can improve the respiration forecast accuracy.« less

Problems in evaluating radiation dose via terrestrial and aquatic pathways.

PubMed Central

Vaughan, B E; Soldat, J K; Schreckhise, R G; Watson, E C; McKenzie, D H

1981-01-01

This review is concerned with exposure risk and the environmental pathways models used for predictive assessment of radiation dose. Exposure factors, the adequacy of available data, and the model subcomponents are critically reviewed from the standpoint of absolute error propagation. Although the models are inherently capable of better absolute accuracy, a calculated dose is usually overestimated by from two to six orders of magnitude, in practice. The principal reason for so large an error lies in using "generic" concentration ratios in situations where site specific data are needed. Major opinion of the model makers suggests a number midway between these extremes, with only a small likelihood of ever underestimating the radiation dose. Detailed evaluations are made of source considerations influencing dose (i.e., physical and chemical status of released material); dispersal mechanisms (atmospheric, hydrologic and biotic vector transport); mobilization and uptake mechanisms (i.e., chemical and other factors affecting the biological availability of radioelements); and critical pathways. Examples are shown of confounding in food-chain pathways, due to uncritical application of concentration ratios. Current thoughts of replacing the critical pathways approach to calculating dose with comprehensive model calculations are also shown to be ill-advised, given present limitations in the comprehensive data base. The pathways models may also require improved parametrization, as they are not at present structured adequately to lend themselves to validation. The extremely wide errors associated with predicting exposure stand in striking contrast to the error range associated with the extrapolation of animal effects data to the human being. PMID:7037381

Intranasal Pharmacokinetic Data for Triptans Such as Sumatriptan and Zolmitriptan Can Render Area Under the Curve (AUC) Predictions for the Oral Route: Strategy Development and Application.

PubMed

Srinivas, Nuggehally R; Syed, Muzeeb

2016-01-01

Limited pharmacokinetic sampling strategy may be useful for predicting the area under the curve (AUC) for triptans and may have clinical utility as a prospective tool for prediction. Using appropriate intranasal pharmacokinetic data, a Cmax vs. AUC relationship was established by linear regression models for sumatriptan and zolmitriptan. The predictions of the AUC values were performed using published mean/median Cmax data and appropriate regression lines. The quotient of observed and predicted values rendered fold-difference calculation. The mean absolute error (MAE), mean positive error (MPE), mean negative error (MNE), root mean square error (RMSE), correlation coefficient (r), and the goodness of the AUC fold prediction were used to evaluate the two triptans. Also, data from the mean concentration profiles at time points of 1 hour (sumatriptan) and 3 hours (zolmitriptan) were used for the AUC prediction. The Cmax vs. AUC models displayed excellent correlation for both sumatriptan (r = .9997; P < .001) and zolmitriptan (r = .9999; P < .001). Irrespective of the two triptans, the majority of the predicted AUCs (83%-85%) were within 0.76-1.25-fold difference using the regression model. The prediction of AUC values for sumatriptan or zolmitriptan using the concentration data that reflected the Tmax occurrence were in the proximity of the reported values. In summary, the Cmax vs. AUC models exhibited strong correlations for sumatriptan and zolmitriptan. The usefulness of the prediction of the AUC values was established by a rigorous statistical approach.

Biomarkers are used to predict quantitative metabolite concentration profiles in human red blood cells

DOE PAGES

Yurkovich, James T.; Yang, Laurence; Palsson, Bernhard O.; ...

2017-03-06

Deep-coverage metabolomic profiling has revealed a well-defined development of metabolic decay in human red blood cells (RBCs) under cold storage conditions. A set of extracellular biomarkers has been recently identified that reliably defines the qualitative state of the metabolic network throughout this metabolic decay process. Here, we extend the utility of these biomarkers by using them to quantitatively predict the concentrations of other metabolites in the red blood cell. We are able to accurately predict the concentration profile of 84 of the 91 (92%) measured metabolites ( p < 0.05) in RBC metabolism using only measurements of these five biomarkers.more » The median of prediction errors (symmetric mean absolute percent error) across all metabolites was 13%. Furthermore, the ability to predict numerous metabolite concentrations from a simple set of biomarkers offers the potential for the development of a powerful workflow that could be used to evaluate the metabolic state of a biological system using a minimal set of measurements.« less

Biomarkers are used to predict quantitative metabolite concentration profiles in human red blood cells

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yurkovich, James T.; Yang, Laurence; Palsson, Bernhard O.

Deep-coverage metabolomic profiling has revealed a well-defined development of metabolic decay in human red blood cells (RBCs) under cold storage conditions. A set of extracellular biomarkers has been recently identified that reliably defines the qualitative state of the metabolic network throughout this metabolic decay process. Here, we extend the utility of these biomarkers by using them to quantitatively predict the concentrations of other metabolites in the red blood cell. We are able to accurately predict the concentration profile of 84 of the 91 (92%) measured metabolites ( p < 0.05) in RBC metabolism using only measurements of these five biomarkers.more » The median of prediction errors (symmetric mean absolute percent error) across all metabolites was 13%. Furthermore, the ability to predict numerous metabolite concentrations from a simple set of biomarkers offers the potential for the development of a powerful workflow that could be used to evaluate the metabolic state of a biological system using a minimal set of measurements.« less

Prediction of matching condition for a microstrip subsystem using artificial neural network and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salehi, Mohammad Reza; Noori, Leila; Abiri, Ebrahim

2016-11-01

In this paper, a subsystem consisting of a microstrip bandpass filter and a microstrip low noise amplifier (LNA) is designed for WLAN applications. The proposed filter has a small implementation area (49 mm2), small insertion loss (0.08 dB) and wide fractional bandwidth (FBW) (61%). To design the proposed LNA, the compact microstrip cells, an field effect transistor, and only a lumped capacitor are used. It has a low supply voltage and a low return loss (-40 dB) at the operation frequency. The matching condition of the proposed subsystem is predicted using subsystem analysis, artificial neural network (ANN) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). To design the proposed filter, the transmission matrix of the proposed resonator is obtained and analysed. The performance of the proposed ANN and ANFIS models is tested using the numerical data by four performance measures, namely the correlation coefficient (CC), the mean absolute error (MAE), the average percentage error (APE) and the root mean square error (RMSE). The obtained results show that these models are in good agreement with the numerical data, and a small error between the predicted values and numerical solution is obtained.

Clinical time series prediction: Toward a hierarchical dynamical system framework.

PubMed

Liu, Zitao; Hauskrecht, Milos

2015-09-01

Developing machine learning and data mining algorithms for building temporal models of clinical time series is important for understanding of the patient condition, the dynamics of a disease, effect of various patient management interventions and clinical decision making. In this work, we propose and develop a novel hierarchical framework for modeling clinical time series data of varied length and with irregularly sampled observations. Our hierarchical dynamical system framework for modeling clinical time series combines advantages of the two temporal modeling approaches: the linear dynamical system and the Gaussian process. We model the irregularly sampled clinical time series by using multiple Gaussian process sequences in the lower level of our hierarchical framework and capture the transitions between Gaussian processes by utilizing the linear dynamical system. The experiments are conducted on the complete blood count (CBC) panel data of 1000 post-surgical cardiac patients during their hospitalization. Our framework is evaluated and compared to multiple baseline approaches in terms of the mean absolute prediction error and the absolute percentage error. We tested our framework by first learning the time series model from data for the patients in the training set, and then using it to predict future time series values for the patients in the test set. We show that our model outperforms multiple existing models in terms of its predictive accuracy. Our method achieved a 3.13% average prediction accuracy improvement on ten CBC lab time series when it was compared against the best performing baseline. A 5.25% average accuracy improvement was observed when only short-term predictions were considered. A new hierarchical dynamical system framework that lets us model irregularly sampled time series data is a promising new direction for modeling clinical time series and for improving their predictive performance. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Study on elevated-temperature flow behavior of Ni-Cr-Mo-B ultra-heavy-plate steel via experiment and modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Zhi-yu; Kang, Yu; Li, Yan-shuai; Meng, Chao; Pan, Tao

2018-04-01

Elevated-temperature flow behavior of a novel Ni-Cr-Mo-B ultra-heavy-plate steel was investigated by conducting hot compressive deformation tests on a Gleeble-3800 thermo-mechanical simulator at a temperature range of 1123 K–1423 K with a strain rate range from 0.01 s‑1 to10 s‑1 and a height reduction of 70%. Based on the experimental results, classic strain-compensated Arrhenius-type, a new revised strain-compensated Arrhenius-type and classic modified Johnson-Cook constitutive models were developed for predicting the high-temperature deformation behavior of the steel. The predictability of these models were comparatively evaluated in terms of statistical parameters including correlation coefficient (R), average absolute relative error (AARE), average root mean square error (RMSE), normalized mean bias error (NMBE) and relative error. The statistical results indicate that the new revised strain-compensated Arrhenius-type model could give prediction of elevated-temperature flow stress for the steel accurately under the entire process conditions. However, the predicted values by the classic modified Johnson-Cook model could not agree well with the experimental values, and the classic strain-compensated Arrhenius-type model could track the deformation behavior more accurately compared with the modified Johnson-Cook model, but less accurately with the new revised strain-compensated Arrhenius-type model. In addition, reasons of differences in predictability of these models were discussed in detail.

Grid Quality and Resolution Issues from the Drag Prediction Workshop Series

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mavriplis, Dimitri J.; Vassberg, John C.; Tinoco, Edward N.; Mani, Mori; Brodersen, Olaf P.; Eisfeld, Bernhard; Wahls, Richard A.; Morrison, Joseph H.; Zickuhr, Tom; Levy, David;

Using a Hybrid Model to Forecast the Prevalence of Schistosomiasis in Humans

PubMed Central

Zhou, Lingling; Xia, Jing; Yu, Lijing; Wang, Ying; Shi, Yun; Cai, Shunxiang; Nie, Shaofa

2016-01-01

Background: We previously proposed a hybrid model combining both the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and the nonlinear autoregressive neural network (NARNN) models in forecasting schistosomiasis. Our purpose in the current study was to forecast the annual prevalence of human schistosomiasis in Yangxin County, using our ARIMA-NARNN model, thereby further certifying the reliability of our hybrid model. Methods: We used the ARIMA, NARNN and ARIMA-NARNN models to fit and forecast the annual prevalence of schistosomiasis. The modeling time range included was the annual prevalence from 1956 to 2008 while the testing time range included was from 2009 to 2012. The mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were used to measure the model performance. We reconstructed the hybrid model to forecast the annual prevalence from 2013 to 2016. Results: The modeling and testing errors generated by the ARIMA-NARNN model were lower than those obtained from either the single ARIMA or NARNN models. The predicted annual prevalence from 2013 to 2016 demonstrated an initial decreasing trend, followed by an increase. Conclusions: The ARIMA-NARNN model can be well applied to analyze surveillance data for early warning systems for the control and elimination of schistosomiasis. PMID:27023573

Modeling and predicting historical volatility in exchange rate markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lahmiri, Salim

2017-04-01

Volatility modeling and forecasting of currency exchange rate is an important task in several business risk management tasks; including treasury risk management, derivatives pricing, and portfolio risk evaluation. The purpose of this study is to present a simple and effective approach for predicting historical volatility of currency exchange rate. The approach is based on a limited set of technical indicators as inputs to the artificial neural networks (ANN). To show the effectiveness of the proposed approach, it was applied to forecast US/Canada and US/Euro exchange rates volatilities. The forecasting results show that our simple approach outperformed the conventional GARCH and EGARCH with different distribution assumptions, and also the hybrid GARCH and EGARCH with ANN in terms of mean absolute error, mean of squared errors, and Theil's inequality coefficient. Because of the simplicity and effectiveness of the approach, it is promising for US currency volatility prediction tasks.

Determination and error analysis of emittance and spectral emittance measurements by remote sensing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dejesusparada, N. (Principal Investigator); Kumar, R.

1977-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. From the theory of remote sensing of surface temperatures, an equation of the upper bound of absolute error of emittance was determined. It showed that the absolute error decreased with an increase in contact temperature, whereas, it increased with an increase in environmental integrated radiant flux density. Change in emittance had little effect on the absolute error. A plot of the difference between temperature and band radiance temperature vs. emittance was provided for the wavelength intervals: 4.5 to 5.5 microns, 8 to 13.5 microns, and 10.2 to 12.5 microns.

Estimation of perceptible water vapor of atmosphere using artificial neural network, support vector machine and multiple linear regression algorithm and their comparative study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shastri, Niket; Pathak, Kamlesh

2018-05-01

The water vapor content in atmosphere plays very important role in climate. In this paper the application of GPS signal in meteorology is discussed, which is useful technique that is used to estimate the perceptible water vapor of atmosphere. In this paper various algorithms like artificial neural network, support vector machine and multiple linear regression are use to predict perceptible water vapor. The comparative studies in terms of root mean square error and mean absolute errors are also carried out for all the algorithms.

Motion-induced error reduction by combining Fourier transform profilometry with phase-shifting profilometry.

PubMed

Li, Beiwen; Liu, Ziping; Zhang, Song

2016-10-03

We propose a hybrid computational framework to reduce motion-induced measurement error by combining the Fourier transform profilometry (FTP) and phase-shifting profilometry (PSP). The proposed method is composed of three major steps: Step 1 is to extract continuous relative phase maps for each isolated object with single-shot FTP method and spatial phase unwrapping; Step 2 is to obtain an absolute phase map of the entire scene using PSP method, albeit motion-induced errors exist on the extracted absolute phase map; and Step 3 is to shift the continuous relative phase maps from Step 1 to generate final absolute phase maps for each isolated object by referring to the absolute phase map with error from Step 2. Experiments demonstrate the success of the proposed computational framework for measuring multiple isolated rapidly moving objects.

Modeling Heavy/Medium-Duty Fuel Consumption Based on Drive Cycle Properties

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Lijuan; Duran, Adam; Gonder, Jeffrey

This paper presents multiple methods for predicting heavy/medium-duty vehicle fuel consumption based on driving cycle information. A polynomial model, a black box artificial neural net model, a polynomial neural network model, and a multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) model were developed and verified using data collected from chassis testing performed on a parcel delivery diesel truck operating over the Heavy Heavy-Duty Diesel Truck (HHDDT), City Suburban Heavy Vehicle Cycle (CSHVC), New York Composite Cycle (NYCC), and hydraulic hybrid vehicle (HHV) drive cycles. Each model was trained using one of four drive cycles as a training cycle and the other threemore » as testing cycles. By comparing the training and testing results, a representative training cycle was chosen and used to further tune each method. HHDDT as the training cycle gave the best predictive results, because HHDDT contains a variety of drive characteristics, such as high speed, acceleration, idling, and deceleration. Among the four model approaches, MARS gave the best predictive performance, with an average absolute percent error of -1.84% over the four chassis dynamometer drive cycles. To further evaluate the accuracy of the predictive models, the approaches were first applied to real-world data. MARS outperformed the other three approaches, providing an average absolute percent error of -2.2% of four real-world road segments. The MARS model performance was then compared to HHDDT, CSHVC, NYCC, and HHV drive cycles with the performance from Future Automotive System Technology Simulator (FASTSim). The results indicated that the MARS method achieved a comparative predictive performance with FASTSim.« less

Comparison of Dst Forecast Models for Intense Geomagnetic Storms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ji, Eun-Young; Moon, Y.-J.; Gopalswamy, N.; Lee, D.-H.

2012-01-01

We have compared six disturbance storm time (Dst) forecast models using 63 intense geomagnetic storms (Dst <=100 nT) that occurred from 1998 to 2006. For comparison, we estimated linear correlation coefficients and RMS errors between the observed Dst data and the predicted Dst during the geomagnetic storm period as well as the difference of the value of minimum Dst (Delta Dst(sub min)) and the difference in the absolute value of Dst minimum time (Delta t(sub Dst)) between the observed and the predicted. As a result, we found that the model by Temerin and Li gives the best prediction for all parameters when all 63 events are considered. The model gives the average values: the linear correlation coefficient of 0.94, the RMS error of 14.8 nT, the Delta Dst(sub min) of 7.7 nT, and the absolute value of Delta t(sub Dst) of 1.5 hour. For further comparison, we classified the storm events into two groups according to the magnitude of Dst. We found that the model of Temerin and Lee is better than the other models for the events having 100 <= Dst < 200 nT, and three recent models (the model of Wang et al., the model of Temerin and Li, and the model of Boynton et al.) are better than the other three models for the events having Dst <= 200 nT.

Comparing alchemical and physical pathway methods for computing the absolute binding free energy of charged ligands.

PubMed

Deng, Nanjie; Cui, Di; Zhang, Bin W; Xia, Junchao; Cruz, Jeffrey; Levy, Ronald

2018-06-13

Accurately predicting absolute binding free energies of protein-ligand complexes is important as a fundamental problem in both computational biophysics and pharmaceutical discovery. Calculating binding free energies for charged ligands is generally considered to be challenging because of the strong electrostatic interactions between the ligand and its environment in aqueous solution. In this work, we compare the performance of the potential of mean force (PMF) method and the double decoupling method (DDM) for computing absolute binding free energies for charged ligands. We first clarify an unresolved issue concerning the explicit use of the binding site volume to define the complexed state in DDM together with the use of harmonic restraints. We also provide an alternative derivation for the formula for absolute binding free energy using the PMF approach. We use these formulas to compute the binding free energy of charged ligands at an allosteric site of HIV-1 integrase, which has emerged in recent years as a promising target for developing antiviral therapy. As compared with the experimental results, the absolute binding free energies obtained by using the PMF approach show unsigned errors of 1.5-3.4 kcal mol-1, which are somewhat better than the results from DDM (unsigned errors of 1.6-4.3 kcal mol-1) using the same amount of CPU time. According to the DDM decomposition of the binding free energy, the ligand binding appears to be dominated by nonpolar interactions despite the presence of very large and favorable intermolecular ligand-receptor electrostatic interactions, which are almost completely cancelled out by the equally large free energy cost of desolvation of the charged moiety of the ligands in solution. We discuss the relative strengths of computing absolute binding free energies using the alchemical and physical pathway methods.

Students' Mathematical Work on Absolute Value: Focusing on Conceptions, Errors and Obstacles

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Elia, Iliada; Özel, Serkan; Gagatsis, Athanasios; Panaoura, Areti; Özel, Zeynep Ebrar Yetkiner

2016-01-01

This study investigates students' conceptions of absolute value (AV), their performance in various items on AV, their errors in these items and the relationships between students' conceptions and their performance and errors. The Mathematical Working Space (MWS) is used as a framework for studying students' mathematical work on AV and the…

Population Pharmacokinetics of Intravenous Paracetamol (Acetaminophen) in Preterm and Term Neonates: Model Development and External Evaluation.

PubMed

Cook, Sarah F; Roberts, Jessica K; Samiee-Zafarghandy, Samira; Stockmann, Chris; King, Amber D; Deutsch, Nina; Williams, Elaine F; Allegaert, Karel; Wilkins, Diana G; Sherwin, Catherine M T; van den Anker, John N

2016-01-01

The aims of this study were to develop a population pharmacokinetic model for intravenous paracetamol in preterm and term neonates and to assess the generalizability of the model by testing its predictive performance in an external dataset. Nonlinear mixed-effects models were constructed from paracetamol concentration-time data in NONMEM 7.2. Potential covariates included body weight, gestational age, postnatal age, postmenstrual age, sex, race, total bilirubin, and estimated glomerular filtration rate. An external dataset was used to test the predictive performance of the model through calculation of bias, precision, and normalized prediction distribution errors. The model-building dataset included 260 observations from 35 neonates with a mean gestational age of 33.6 weeks [standard deviation (SD) 6.6]. Data were well-described by a one-compartment model with first-order elimination. Weight predicted paracetamol clearance and volume of distribution, which were estimated as 0.348 L/h (5.5 % relative standard error; 30.8 % coefficient of variation) and 2.46 L (3.5 % relative standard error; 14.3 % coefficient of variation), respectively, at the mean subject weight of 2.30 kg. An external evaluation was performed on an independent dataset that included 436 observations from 60 neonates with a mean gestational age of 35.6 weeks (SD 4.3). The median prediction error was 10.1 % [95 % confidence interval (CI) 6.1-14.3] and the median absolute prediction error was 25.3 % (95 % CI 23.1-28.1). Weight predicted intravenous paracetamol pharmacokinetics in neonates ranging from extreme preterm to full-term gestational status. External evaluation suggested that these findings should be generalizable to other similar patient populations.

Population Pharmacokinetics of Intravenous Paracetamol (Acetaminophen) in Preterm and Term Neonates: Model Development and External Evaluation

PubMed Central

Cook, Sarah F.; Roberts, Jessica K.; Samiee-Zafarghandy, Samira; Stockmann, Chris; King, Amber D.; Deutsch, Nina; Williams, Elaine F.; Allegaert, Karel; Sherwin, Catherine M. T.; van den Anker, John N.

2017-01-01

Objectives The aims of this study were to develop a population pharmacokinetic model for intravenous paracetamol in preterm and term neonates and to assess the generalizability of the model by testing its predictive performance in an external dataset. Methods Nonlinear mixed-effects models were constructed from paracetamol concentration–time data in NONMEM 7.2. Potential covariates included body weight, gestational age, postnatal age, postmenstrual age, sex, race, total bilirubin, and estimated glomerular filtration rate. An external dataset was used to test the predictive performance of the model through calculation of bias, precision, and normalized prediction distribution errors. Results The model-building dataset included 260 observations from 35 neonates with a mean gestational age of 33.6 weeks [standard deviation (SD) 6.6]. Data were well-described by a one-compartment model with first-order elimination. Weight predicted paracetamol clearance and volume of distribution, which were estimated as 0.348 L/h (5.5 % relative standard error; 30.8 % coefficient of variation) and 2.46 L (3.5 % relative standard error; 14.3 % coefficient of variation), respectively, at the mean subject weight of 2.30 kg. An external evaluation was performed on an independent dataset that included 436 observations from 60 neonates with a mean gestational age of 35.6 weeks (SD 4.3). The median prediction error was 10.1 % [95 % confidence interval (CI) 6.1–14.3] and the median absolute prediction error was 25.3 % (95 % CI 23.1–28.1). Conclusions Weight predicted intravenous paracetamol pharmacokinetics in neonates ranging from extreme preterm to full-term gestational status. External evaluation suggested that these findings should be generalizable to other similar patient populations. PMID:26201306

Dosimetric impact of geometric errors due to respiratory motion prediction on dynamic multileaf collimator-based four-dimensional radiation delivery

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vedam, S.; Docef, A.; Fix, M.

2005-06-15

The synchronization of dynamic multileaf collimator (DMLC) response with respiratory motion is critical to ensure the accuracy of DMLC-based four dimensional (4D) radiation delivery. In practice, however, a finite time delay (response time) between the acquisition of tumor position and multileaf collimator response necessitates predictive models of respiratory tumor motion to synchronize radiation delivery. Predicting a complex process such as respiratory motion introduces geometric errors, which have been reported in several publications. However, the dosimetric effect of such errors on 4D radiation delivery has not yet been investigated. Thus, our aim in this work was to quantify the dosimetric effectsmore » of geometric error due to prediction under several different conditions. Conformal and intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) plans for a lung patient were generated for anterior-posterior/posterior-anterior (AP/PA) beam arrangements at 6 and 18 MV energies to provide planned dose distributions. Respiratory motion data was obtained from 60 diaphragm-motion fluoroscopy recordings from five patients. A linear adaptive filter was employed to predict the tumor position. The geometric error of prediction was defined as the absolute difference between predicted and actual positions at each diaphragm position. Distributions of geometric error of prediction were obtained for all of the respiratory motion data. Planned dose distributions were then convolved with distributions for the geometric error of prediction to obtain convolved dose distributions. The dosimetric effect of such geometric errors was determined as a function of several variables: response time (0-0.6 s), beam energy (6/18 MV), treatment delivery (3D/4D), treatment type (conformal/IMRT), beam direction (AP/PA), and breathing training type (free breathing/audio instruction/visual feedback). Dose difference and distance-to-agreement analysis was employed to quantify results. Based on our data, the dosimetric impact of prediction (a) increased with response time, (b) was larger for 3D radiation therapy as compared with 4D radiation therapy, (c) was relatively insensitive to change in beam energy and beam direction, (d) was greater for IMRT distributions as compared with conformal distributions, (e) was smaller than the dosimetric impact of latency, and (f) was greatest for respiration motion with audio instructions, followed by visual feedback and free breathing. Geometric errors of prediction that occur during 4D radiation delivery introduce dosimetric errors that are dependent on several factors, such as response time, treatment-delivery type, and beam energy. Even for relatively small response times of 0.6 s into the future, dosimetric errors due to prediction could approach delivery errors when respiratory motion is not accounted for at all. To reduce the dosimetric impact, better predictive models and/or shorter response times are required.« less

Comparison of Two Hybrid Models for Forecasting the Incidence of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Jiangsu Province, China

PubMed Central

Wu, Wei; Guo, Junqiao; An, Shuyi; Guan, Peng; Ren, Yangwu; Xia, Linzi; Zhou, Baosen

2015-01-01

Background Cases of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) are widely distributed in eastern Asia, especially in China, Russia, and Korea. It is proved to be a difficult task to eliminate HFRS completely because of the diverse animal reservoirs and effects of global warming. Reliable forecasting is useful for the prevention and control of HFRS. Methods Two hybrid models, one composed of nonlinear autoregressive neural network (NARNN) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) the other composed of generalized regression neural network (GRNN) and ARIMA were constructed to predict the incidence of HFRS in the future one year. Performances of the two hybrid models were compared with ARIMA model. Results The ARIMA, ARIMA-NARNN ARIMA-GRNN model fitted and predicted the seasonal fluctuation well. Among the three models, the mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of ARIMA-NARNN hybrid model was the lowest both in modeling stage and forecasting stage. As for the ARIMA-GRNN hybrid model, the MSE, MAE and MAPE of modeling performance and the MSE and MAE of forecasting performance were less than the ARIMA model, but the MAPE of forecasting performance did not improve. Conclusion Developing and applying the ARIMA-NARNN hybrid model is an effective method to make us better understand the epidemic characteristics of HFRS and could be helpful to the prevention and control of HFRS. PMID:26270814

Statistical variability comparison in MODIS and AERONET derived aerosol optical depth over Indo-Gangetic Plains using time series modeling.

PubMed

Soni, Kirti; Parmar, Kulwinder Singh; Kapoor, Sangeeta; Kumar, Nishant

2016-05-15

A lot of studies in the literature of Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) done by using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) derived data, but the accuracy of satellite data in comparison to ground data derived from ARrosol Robotic NETwork (AERONET) has been always questionable. So to overcome from this situation, comparative study of a comprehensive ground based and satellite data for the period of 2001-2012 is modeled. The time series model is used for the accurate prediction of AOD and statistical variability is compared to assess the performance of the model in both cases. Root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), stationary R-squared, R-squared, maximum absolute percentage error (MAPE), normalized Bayesian information criterion (NBIC) and Ljung-Box methods are used to check the applicability and validity of the developed ARIMA models revealing significant precision in the model performance. It was found that, it is possible to predict the AOD by statistical modeling using time series obtained from past data of MODIS and AERONET as input data. Moreover, the result shows that MODIS data can be formed from AERONET data by adding 0.251627 ± 0.133589 and vice-versa by subtracting. From the forecast available for AODs for the next four years (2013-2017) by using the developed ARIMA model, it is concluded that the forecasted ground AOD has increased trend. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dental age estimation in Japanese individuals combining permanent teeth and third molars.

PubMed

Ramanan, Namratha; Thevissen, Patrick; Fleuws, Steffen; Willems, G

2012-12-01

The study aim was, firstly, to verify the Willems et al. model on a Japanese reference sample. Secondly to develop a Japanese reference model based on the Willems et al. method and to verify it. Thirdly to analyze the age prediction performance adding tooth development information of third molars to permanent teeth. Retrospectively 1877 panoramic radiographs were selected in the age range between 1 and 23 years (1248 children, 629 sub-adults). Dental development was registered applying Demirjian 's stages of the mandibular left permanent teeth in children and Köhler stages on the third molars. The children's data were, firstly, used to validate the Willems et al. model (developed a Belgian reference sample), secondly, split ino a training and a test sample. On the training sample a Japanese reference model was developed based on the Willems method. The developed model and the Willems et al; model were verified on the test sample. Regression analysis was used to detect the age prediction performance adding third molar scores to permanent tooth scores. The validated Willems et al. model provided a mean absolute error of 0.85 and 0.75 years in females and males, respectively. The mean absolute error in the verified Willems et al. and the developed Japanese reference model was 0.85, 0.77 and 0.79, 0.75 years in females and males, respectively. On average a negligible change in root mean square error values was detected adding third molar scores to permanent teeth scores. The Belgian sample could be used as a reference model to estimate the age of the Japanese individuals. Combining information from the third molars and permanent teeth was not providing clinically significant improvement of age predictions based on permanent teeth information alone.

Prediction of Shock Arrival Times from CME and Flare Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nunez, Marlon; Nieves-Chinchilla, Teresa; Pulkkinen, Antti

2016-01-01

This paper presents the Shock ARrival Model (SARM) for predicting shock arrival times for distances from 0.72 AU to 8.7 AU by using coronal mass ejections (CME) and flare data. SARM is an aerodynamic drag model described by a differential equation that has been calibrated with a dataset of 120 shocks observed from 1997 to 2010 by minimizing the mean absolute error (MAE), normalized to 1 AU. SARM should be used with CME data (radial, earthward or plane-of-sky speeds), and flare data (peak flux, duration, and location). In the case of 1 AU, the MAE and the median of absolute errors were 7.0 h and 5.0 h respectively, using the available CMEflare data. The best results for 1 AU (an MAE of 5.8 h) were obtained using both CME data, either radial or cone-model-estimated speeds, and flare data. For the prediction of shock arrivals at distances from 0.72 AU to 8.7 AU, the normalized MAE and the median were 7.1 h and 5.1 h respectively, using the available CMEflare data. SARM was also calibrated to be used with CME data alone or flare data alone, obtaining normalized MAE errors of 8.9 h and 8.6 h respectively for all shock events. The model verification was carried out with an additional dataset of 20 shocks observed from 2010 to 2012 with radial CME speeds to compare SARM with the empirical ESA model [Gopalswamy et al., 2005a] and the numerical MHD-based ENLIL model [Odstrcil et al., 2004]. The results show that the ENLIL's MAE was lower than the SARM's MAE, which was lower than the ESA's MAE. The SARM's best results were obtained when both flare and true CME speeds were used.

Forecasting influenza in Hong Kong with Google search queries and statistical model fusion.

PubMed

Xu, Qinneng; Gel, Yulia R; Ramirez Ramirez, L Leticia; Nezafati, Kusha; Zhang, Qingpeng; Tsui, Kwok-Leung

2017-01-01

The objective of this study is to investigate predictive utility of online social media and web search queries, particularly, Google search data, to forecast new cases of influenza-like-illness (ILI) in general outpatient clinics (GOPC) in Hong Kong. To mitigate the impact of sensitivity to self-excitement (i.e., fickle media interest) and other artifacts of online social media data, in our approach we fuse multiple offline and online data sources. Four individual models: generalized linear model (GLM), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), and deep learning (DL) with Feedforward Neural Networks (FNN) are employed to forecast ILI-GOPC both one week and two weeks in advance. The covariates include Google search queries, meteorological data, and previously recorded offline ILI. To our knowledge, this is the first study that introduces deep learning methodology into surveillance of infectious diseases and investigates its predictive utility. Furthermore, to exploit the strength from each individual forecasting models, we use statistical model fusion, using Bayesian model averaging (BMA), which allows a systematic integration of multiple forecast scenarios. For each model, an adaptive approach is used to capture the recent relationship between ILI and covariates. DL with FNN appears to deliver the most competitive predictive performance among the four considered individual models. Combing all four models in a comprehensive BMA framework allows to further improve such predictive evaluation metrics as root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute predictive error (MAPE). Nevertheless, DL with FNN remains the preferred method for predicting locations of influenza peaks. The proposed approach can be viewed a feasible alternative to forecast ILI in Hong Kong or other countries where ILI has no constant seasonal trend and influenza data resources are limited. The proposed methodology is easily tractable and computationally efficient.

Optimizing Blasting’s Air Overpressure Prediction Model using Swarm Intelligence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nur Asmawisham Alel, Mohd; Ruben Anak Upom, Mark; Asnida Abdullah, Rini; Hazreek Zainal Abidin, Mohd

2018-04-01

Air overpressure (AOp) resulting from blasting can cause damage and nuisance to nearby civilians. Thus, it is important to be able to predict AOp accurately. In this study, 8 different Artificial Neural Network (ANN) were developed for the purpose of prediction of AOp. The ANN models were trained using different variants of Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm. AOp predictions were also made using an empirical equation, as suggested by United States Bureau of Mines (USBM), to serve as a benchmark. In order to develop the models, 76 blasting operations in Hulu Langat were investigated. All the ANN models were found to outperform the USBM equation in three performance metrics; root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and coefficient of determination (R2). Using a performance ranking method, MSO-Rand-Mut was determined to be the best prediction model for AOp with a performance metric of RMSE=2.18, MAPE=1.73% and R2=0.97. The result shows that ANN models trained using PSO are capable of predicting AOp with great accuracy.

Prediction of boiling points of organic compounds by QSPR tools.

PubMed

Dai, Yi-min; Zhu, Zhi-ping; Cao, Zhong; Zhang, Yue-fei; Zeng, Ju-lan; Li, Xun

2013-07-01

The novel electro-negativity topological descriptors of YC, WC were derived from molecular structure by equilibrium electro-negativity of atom and relative bond length of molecule. The quantitative structure-property relationships (QSPR) between descriptors of YC, WC as well as path number parameter P3 and the normal boiling points of 80 alkanes, 65 unsaturated hydrocarbons and 70 alcohols were obtained separately. The high-quality prediction models were evidenced by coefficient of determination (R(2)), the standard error (S), average absolute errors (AAE) and predictive parameters (Qext(2),RCV(2),Rm(2)). According to the regression equations, the influences of the length of carbon backbone, the size, the degree of branching of a molecule and the role of functional groups on the normal boiling point were analyzed. Comparison results with reference models demonstrated that novel topological descriptors based on the equilibrium electro-negativity of atom and the relative bond length were useful molecular descriptors for predicting the normal boiling points of organic compounds. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Curiosity and reward: Valence predicts choice and information prediction errors enhance learning.

PubMed

Marvin, Caroline B; Shohamy, Daphna

2016-03-01

Curiosity drives many of our daily pursuits and interactions; yet, we know surprisingly little about how it works. Here, we harness an idea implied in many conceptualizations of curiosity: that information has value in and of itself. Reframing curiosity as the motivation to obtain reward-where the reward is information-allows one to leverage major advances in theoretical and computational mechanisms of reward-motivated learning. We provide new evidence supporting 2 predictions that emerge from this framework. First, we find an asymmetric effect of positive versus negative information, with positive information enhancing both curiosity and long-term memory for information. Second, we find that it is not the absolute value of information that drives learning but, rather, the gap between the reward expected and reward received, an "information prediction error." These results support the idea that information functions as a reward, much like money or food, guiding choices and driving learning in systematic ways. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Statistical Modeling and Prediction for Tourism Economy Using Dendritic Neural Network

PubMed Central

Yu, Ying; Wang, Yirui; Tang, Zheng

2017-01-01

With the impact of global internationalization, tourism economy has also been a rapid development. The increasing interest aroused by more advanced forecasting methods leads us to innovate forecasting methods. In this paper, the seasonal trend autoregressive integrated moving averages with dendritic neural network model (SA-D model) is proposed to perform the tourism demand forecasting. First, we use the seasonal trend autoregressive integrated moving averages model (SARIMA model) to exclude the long-term linear trend and then train the residual data by the dendritic neural network model and make a short-term prediction. As the result showed in this paper, the SA-D model can achieve considerably better predictive performances. In order to demonstrate the effectiveness of the SA-D model, we also use the data that other authors used in the other models and compare the results. It also proved that the SA-D model achieved good predictive performances in terms of the normalized mean square error, absolute percentage of error, and correlation coefficient. PMID:28246527

Statistical Modeling and Prediction for Tourism Economy Using Dendritic Neural Network.

PubMed

Yu, Ying; Wang, Yirui; Gao, Shangce; Tang, Zheng

2017-01-01

With the impact of global internationalization, tourism economy has also been a rapid development. The increasing interest aroused by more advanced forecasting methods leads us to innovate forecasting methods. In this paper, the seasonal trend autoregressive integrated moving averages with dendritic neural network model (SA-D model) is proposed to perform the tourism demand forecasting. First, we use the seasonal trend autoregressive integrated moving averages model (SARIMA model) to exclude the long-term linear trend and then train the residual data by the dendritic neural network model and make a short-term prediction. As the result showed in this paper, the SA-D model can achieve considerably better predictive performances. In order to demonstrate the effectiveness of the SA-D model, we also use the data that other authors used in the other models and compare the results. It also proved that the SA-D model achieved good predictive performances in terms of the normalized mean square error, absolute percentage of error, and correlation coefficient.

Accuracy assessment of the global TanDEM-X Digital Elevation Model with GPS data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wessel, Birgit; Huber, Martin; Wohlfart, Christian; Marschalk, Ursula; Kosmann, Detlev; Roth, Achim

2018-05-01

The primary goal of the German TanDEM-X mission is the generation of a highly accurate and global Digital Elevation Model (DEM) with global accuracies of at least 10 m absolute height error (linear 90% error). The global TanDEM-X DEM acquired with single-pass SAR interferometry was finished in September 2016. This paper provides a unique accuracy assessment of the final TanDEM-X global DEM using two different GPS point reference data sets, which are distributed across all continents, to fully characterize the absolute height error. Firstly, the absolute vertical accuracy is examined by about three million globally distributed kinematic GPS (KGPS) points derived from 19 KGPS tracks covering a total length of about 66,000 km. Secondly, a comparison is performed with more than 23,000 "GPS on Bench Marks" (GPS-on-BM) points provided by the US National Geodetic Survey (NGS) scattered across 14 different land cover types of the US National Land Cover Data base (NLCD). Both GPS comparisons prove an absolute vertical mean error of TanDEM-X DEM smaller than ±0.20 m, a Root Means Square Error (RMSE) smaller than 1.4 m and an excellent absolute 90% linear height error below 2 m. The RMSE values are sensitive to land cover types. For low vegetation the RMSE is ±1.1 m, whereas it is slightly higher for developed areas (±1.4 m) and for forests (±1.8 m). This validation confirms an outstanding absolute height error at 90% confidence level of the global TanDEM-X DEM outperforming the requirement by a factor of five. Due to its extensive and globally distributed reference data sets, this study is of considerable interests for scientific and commercial applications.

A Novel Hybrid Data-Driven Model for Daily Land Surface Temperature Forecasting Using Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network Based on Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition

PubMed Central

Zhang, Xike; Zhang, Qiuwen; Zhang, Gui; Nie, Zhiping; Gui, Zifan; Que, Huafei

2018-01-01

Daily land surface temperature (LST) forecasting is of great significance for application in climate-related, agricultural, eco-environmental, or industrial studies. Hybrid data-driven prediction models using Ensemble Empirical Mode Composition (EEMD) coupled with Machine Learning (ML) algorithms are useful for achieving these purposes because they can reduce the difficulty of modeling, require less history data, are easy to develop, and are less complex than physical models. In this article, a computationally simple, less data-intensive, fast and efficient novel hybrid data-driven model called the EEMD Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network, namely EEMD-LSTM, is proposed to reduce the difficulty of modeling and to improve prediction accuracy. The daily LST data series from the Mapoling and Zhijiang stations in the Dongting Lake basin, central south China, from 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2016 is used as a case study. The EEMD is firstly employed to decompose the original daily LST data series into many Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) and a single residue item. Then, the Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF) is used to obtain the number of input data sample points for LSTM models. Next, the LSTM models are constructed to predict the decompositions. All the predicted results of the decompositions are aggregated as the final daily LST. Finally, the prediction performance of the hybrid EEMD-LSTM model is assessed in terms of the Mean Square Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Pearson Correlation Coefficient (CC) and Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient of Efficiency (NSCE). To validate the hybrid data-driven model, the hybrid EEMD-LSTM model is compared with the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), LSTM and Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) coupled with RNN, EMD-LSTM and EEMD-RNN models, and their comparison results demonstrate that the hybrid EEMD-LSTM model performs better than the other five models. The scatterplots of the predicted results of the six models versus the original daily LST data series show that the hybrid EEMD-LSTM model is superior to the other five models. It is concluded that the proposed hybrid EEMD-LSTM model in this study is a suitable tool for temperature forecasting. PMID:29883381

A Novel Hybrid Data-Driven Model for Daily Land Surface Temperature Forecasting Using Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network Based on Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition.

PubMed

Zhang, Xike; Zhang, Qiuwen; Zhang, Gui; Nie, Zhiping; Gui, Zifan; Que, Huafei

2018-05-21

Daily land surface temperature (LST) forecasting is of great significance for application in climate-related, agricultural, eco-environmental, or industrial studies. Hybrid data-driven prediction models using Ensemble Empirical Mode Composition (EEMD) coupled with Machine Learning (ML) algorithms are useful for achieving these purposes because they can reduce the difficulty of modeling, require less history data, are easy to develop, and are less complex than physical models. In this article, a computationally simple, less data-intensive, fast and efficient novel hybrid data-driven model called the EEMD Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network, namely EEMD-LSTM, is proposed to reduce the difficulty of modeling and to improve prediction accuracy. The daily LST data series from the Mapoling and Zhijaing stations in the Dongting Lake basin, central south China, from 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2016 is used as a case study. The EEMD is firstly employed to decompose the original daily LST data series into many Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) and a single residue item. Then, the Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF) is used to obtain the number of input data sample points for LSTM models. Next, the LSTM models are constructed to predict the decompositions. All the predicted results of the decompositions are aggregated as the final daily LST. Finally, the prediction performance of the hybrid EEMD-LSTM model is assessed in terms of the Mean Square Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Pearson Correlation Coefficient (CC) and Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient of Efficiency (NSCE). To validate the hybrid data-driven model, the hybrid EEMD-LSTM model is compared with the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), LSTM and Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) coupled with RNN, EMD-LSTM and EEMD-RNN models, and their comparison results demonstrate that the hybrid EEMD-LSTM model performs better than the other five models. The scatterplots of the predicted results of the six models versus the original daily LST data series show that the hybrid EEMD-LSTM model is superior to the other five models. It is concluded that the proposed hybrid EEMD-LSTM model in this study is a suitable tool for temperature forecasting.

Determination of suitable drying curve model for bread moisture loss during baking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soleimani Pour-Damanab, A. R.; Jafary, A.; Rafiee, S.

2013-03-01

This study presents mathematical modelling of bread moisture loss or drying during baking in a conventional bread baking process. In order to estimate and select the appropriate moisture loss curve equation, 11 different models, semi-theoretical and empirical, were applied to the experimental data and compared according to their correlation coefficients, chi-squared test and root mean square error which were predicted by nonlinear regression analysis. Consequently, of all the drying models, a Page model was selected as the best one, according to the correlation coefficients, chi-squared test, and root mean square error values and its simplicity. Mean absolute estimation error of the proposed model by linear regression analysis for natural and forced convection modes was 2.43, 4.74%, respectively.

Calculating the Solubilities of Drugs and Drug-Like Compounds in Octanol.

PubMed

Alantary, Doaa; Yalkowsky, Samuel

2016-09-01

A modification of the Van't Hoff equation is used to predict the solubility of organic compounds in dry octanol. The new equation describes a linear relationship between the logarithm of the solubility of a solute in octanol to its melting temperature. More than 620 experimentally measured octanol solubilities, collected from the literature, are used to validate the equation without using any regression or fitting. The average absolute error of the prediction is 0.66 log units. Copyright © 2016 American Pharmacists Association®. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Forecasting Daily Patient Outflow From a Ward Having No Real-Time Clinical Data

PubMed Central

Tran, Truyen; Luo, Wei; Phung, Dinh; Venkatesh, Svetha

2016-01-01

Background: Modeling patient flow is crucial in understanding resource demand and prioritization. We study patient outflow from an open ward in an Australian hospital, where currently bed allocation is carried out by a manager relying on past experiences and looking at demand. Automatic methods that provide a reasonable estimate of total next-day discharges can aid in efficient bed management. The challenges in building such methods lie in dealing with large amounts of discharge noise introduced by the nonlinear nature of hospital procedures, and the nonavailability of real-time clinical information in wards. Objective Our study investigates different models to forecast the total number of next-day discharges from an open ward having no real-time clinical data. Methods We compared 5 popular regression algorithms to model total next-day discharges: (1) autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), (2) the autoregressive moving average with exogenous variables (ARMAX), (3) k-nearest neighbor regression, (4) random forest regression, and (5) support vector regression. Although the autoregressive integrated moving average model relied on past 3-month discharges, nearest neighbor forecasting used median of similar discharges in the past in estimating next-day discharge. In addition, the ARMAX model used the day of the week and number of patients currently in ward as exogenous variables. For the random forest and support vector regression models, we designed a predictor set of 20 patient features and 88 ward-level features. Results Our data consisted of 12,141 patient visits over 1826 days. Forecasting quality was measured using mean forecast error, mean absolute error, symmetric mean absolute percentage error, and root mean square error. When compared with a moving average prediction model, all 5 models demonstrated superior performance with the random forests achieving 22.7% improvement in mean absolute error, for all days in the year 2014. Conclusions In the absence of clinical information, our study recommends using patient-level and ward-level data in predicting next-day discharges. Random forest and support vector regression models are able to use all available features from such data, resulting in superior performance over traditional autoregressive methods. An intelligent estimate of available beds in wards plays a crucial role in relieving access block in emergency departments. PMID:27444059

Hybrid methodology for tuberculosis incidence time-series forecasting based on ARIMA and a NAR neural network.

PubMed

Wang, K W; Deng, C; Li, J P; Zhang, Y Y; Li, X Y; Wu, M C

2017-04-01

Tuberculosis (TB) affects people globally and is being reconsidered as a serious public health problem in China. Reliable forecasting is useful for the prevention and control of TB. This study proposes a hybrid model combining autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) with a nonlinear autoregressive (NAR) neural network for forecasting the incidence of TB from January 2007 to March 2016. Prediction performance was compared between the hybrid model and the ARIMA model. The best-fit hybrid model was combined with an ARIMA (3,1,0) × (0,1,1)12 and NAR neural network with four delays and 12 neurons in the hidden layer. The ARIMA-NAR hybrid model, which exhibited lower mean square error, mean absolute error, and mean absolute percentage error of 0·2209, 0·1373, and 0·0406, respectively, in the modelling performance, could produce more accurate forecasting of TB incidence compared to the ARIMA model. This study shows that developing and applying the ARIMA-NAR hybrid model is an effective method to fit the linear and nonlinear patterns of time-series data, and this model could be helpful in the prevention and control of TB.

Model assessment using a multi-metric ranking technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fitzpatrick, P. J.; Lau, Y.; Alaka, G.; Marks, F.

2017-12-01

Validation comparisons of multiple models presents challenges when skill levels are similar, especially in regimes dominated by the climatological mean. Assessing skill separation will require advanced validation metrics and identifying adeptness in extreme events, but maintain simplicity for management decisions. Flexibility for operations is also an asset. This work postulates a weighted tally and consolidation technique which ranks results by multiple types of metrics. Variables include absolute error, bias, acceptable absolute error percentages, outlier metrics, model efficiency, Pearson correlation, Kendall's Tau, reliability Index, multiplicative gross error, and root mean squared differences. Other metrics, such as root mean square difference and rank correlation were also explored, but removed when the information was discovered to be generally duplicative to other metrics. While equal weights are applied, weights could be altered depending for preferred metrics. Two examples are shown comparing ocean models' currents and tropical cyclone products, including experimental products. The importance of using magnitude and direction for tropical cyclone track forecasts instead of distance, along-track, and cross-track are discussed. Tropical cyclone intensity and structure prediction are also assessed. Vector correlations are not included in the ranking process, but found useful in an independent context, and will be briefly reported.

3D foot shape generation from 2D information.

PubMed

Luximon, Ameersing; Goonetilleke, Ravindra S; Zhang, Ming

2005-05-15

Two methods to generate an individual 3D foot shape from 2D information are proposed. A standard foot shape was first generated and then scaled based on known 2D information. In the first method, the foot outline and the foot height were used, and in the second, the foot outline and the foot profile were used. The models were developed using 40 participants and then validated using a different set of 40 participants. Results show that each individual foot shape can be predicted within a mean absolute error of 1.36 mm for the left foot and 1.37 mm for the right foot using the first method, and within a mean absolute error of 1.02 mm for the left foot and 1.02 mm for the right foot using the second method. The second method shows somewhat improved accuracy even though it requires two images. Both the methods are relatively cheaper than using a scanner to determine the 3D foot shape for custom footwear design.

New algorithm for toric intraocular lens power calculation considering the posterior corneal astigmatism.

PubMed

Canovas, Carmen; Alarcon, Aixa; Rosén, Robert; Kasthurirangan, Sanjeev; Ma, Joseph J K; Koch, Douglas D; Piers, Patricia

2018-02-01

To assess the accuracy of toric intraocular lens (IOL) power calculations of a new algorithm that incorporates the effect of posterior corneal astigmatism (PCA). Abbott Medical Optics, Inc., Groningen, the Netherlands. Retrospective case report. In eyes implanted with toric IOLs, the exact vergence formula of the Tecnis toric calculator was used to predict refractive astigmatism from preoperative biometry, surgeon-estimated surgically induced astigmatism (SIA), and implanted IOL power, with and without including the new PCA algorithm. For each calculation method, the error in predicted refractive astigmatism was calculated as the vector difference between the prediction and the actual refraction. Calculations were also made using postoperative keratometry (K) values to eliminate the potential effect of incorrect SIA estimates. The study comprised 274 eyes. The PCA algorithm significantly reduced the centroid error in predicted refractive astigmatism (P < .001). With the PCA algorithm, the centroid error reduced from 0.50 @ 1 to 0.19 @ 3 when using preoperative K values and from 0.30 @ 0 to 0.02 @ 84 when using postoperative K values. Patients who had anterior corneal against-the-rule, with-the-rule, and oblique astigmatism had improvement with the PCA algorithm. In addition, the PCA algorithm reduced the median absolute error in all groups (P < .001). The use of the new PCA algorithm decreased the error in the prediction of residual refractive astigmatism in eyes implanted with toric IOLs. Therefore, the new PCA algorithm, in combination with an exact vergence IOL power calculation formula, led to an increased predictability of toric IOL power. Copyright © 2018 ASCRS and ESCRS. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

What do the experts know? Calibration, precision, and the wisdom of crowds among forensic handwriting experts.

PubMed

Martire, Kristy A; Growns, Bethany; Navarro, Danielle J

2018-04-17

Forensic handwriting examiners currently testify to the origin of questioned handwriting for legal purposes. However, forensic scientists are increasingly being encouraged to assign probabilities to their observations in the form of a likelihood ratio. This study is the first to examine whether handwriting experts are able to estimate the frequency of US handwriting features more accurately than novices. The results indicate that the absolute error for experts was lower than novices, but the size of the effect is modest, and the overall error rate even for experts is large enough as to raise questions about whether their estimates can be sufficiently trustworthy for presentation in courts. When errors are separated into effects caused by miscalibration and those caused by imprecision, we find systematic differences between individuals. Finally, we consider several ways of aggregating predictions from multiple experts, suggesting that quite substantial improvements in expert predictions are possible when a suitable aggregation method is used.

Comparison of genetic algorithm and imperialist competitive algorithms in predicting bed load transport in clean pipe.

PubMed

Ebtehaj, Isa; Bonakdari, Hossein

2014-01-01

The existence of sediments in wastewater greatly affects the performance of the sewer and wastewater transmission systems. Increased sedimentation in wastewater collection systems causes problems such as reduced transmission capacity and early combined sewer overflow. The article reviews the performance of the genetic algorithm (GA) and imperialist competitive algorithm (ICA) in minimizing the target function (mean square error of observed and predicted Froude number). To study the impact of bed load transport parameters, using four non-dimensional groups, six different models have been presented. Moreover, the roulette wheel selection method is used to select the parents. The ICA with root mean square error (RMSE) = 0.007, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) = 3.5% show better results than GA (RMSE = 0.007, MAPE = 5.6%) for the selected model. All six models return better results than the GA. Also, the results of these two algorithms were compared with multi-layer perceptron and existing equations.

[Prediction of soil nutrients spatial distribution based on neural network model combined with goestatistics].

PubMed

Li, Qi-Quan; Wang, Chang-Quan; Zhang, Wen-Jiang; Yu, Yong; Li, Bing; Yang, Juan; Bai, Gen-Chuan; Cai, Yan

2013-02-01

In this study, a radial basis function neural network model combined with ordinary kriging (RBFNN_OK) was adopted to predict the spatial distribution of soil nutrients (organic matter and total N) in a typical hilly region of Sichuan Basin, Southwest China, and the performance of this method was compared with that of ordinary kriging (OK) and regression kriging (RK). All the three methods produced the similar soil nutrient maps. However, as compared with those obtained by multiple linear regression model, the correlation coefficients between the measured values and the predicted values of soil organic matter and total N obtained by neural network model increased by 12. 3% and 16. 5% , respectively, suggesting that neural network model could more accurately capture the complicated relationships between soil nutrients and quantitative environmental factors. The error analyses of the prediction values of 469 validation points indicated that the mean absolute error (MAE) , mean relative error (MRE), and root mean squared error (RMSE) of RBFNN_OK were 6.9%, 7.4%, and 5. 1% (for soil organic matter), and 4.9%, 6.1% , and 4.6% (for soil total N) smaller than those of OK (P<0.01), and 2.4%, 2.6% , and 1.8% (for soil organic matter), and 2.1%, 2.8%, and 2.2% (for soil total N) smaller than those of RK, respectively (P<0.05).

Does the Length of Elbow Flexors and Visual Feedback Have Effect on Accuracy of Isometric Muscle Contraction in Men after Stroke?

PubMed Central

Juodzbaliene, Vilma; Darbutas, Tomas; Skurvydas, Albertas

2016-01-01

The aim of the study was to determine the effect of different muscle length and visual feedback information (VFI) on accuracy of isometric contraction of elbow flexors in men after an ischemic stroke (IS). Materials and Methods. Maximum voluntary muscle contraction force (MVMCF) and accurate determinate muscle force (20% of MVMCF) developed during an isometric contraction of elbow flexors in 90° and 60° of elbow flexion were measured by an isokinetic dynamometer in healthy subjects (MH, n = 20) and subjects after an IS during their postrehabilitation period (MS, n = 20). Results. In order to evaluate the accuracy of the isometric contraction of the elbow flexors absolute errors were calculated. The absolute errors provided information about the difference between determinate and achieved muscle force. Conclusions. There is a tendency that greater absolute errors generating determinate force are made by MH and MS subjects in case of a greater elbow flexors length despite presence of VFI. Absolute errors also increase in both groups in case of a greater elbow flexors length without VFI. MS subjects make greater absolute errors generating determinate force without VFI in comparison with MH in shorter elbow flexors length. PMID:27042670

Short communication: Prediction of retention pay-off using a machine learning algorithm.

PubMed

Shahinfar, Saleh; Kalantari, Afshin S; Cabrera, Victor; Weigel, Kent

2014-05-01

Replacement decisions have a major effect on dairy farm profitability. Dynamic programming (DP) has been widely studied to find the optimal replacement policies in dairy cattle. However, DP models are computationally intensive and might not be practical for daily decision making. Hence, the ability of applying machine learning on a prerun DP model to provide fast and accurate predictions of nonlinear and intercorrelated variables makes it an ideal methodology. Milk class (1 to 5), lactation number (1 to 9), month in milk (1 to 20), and month of pregnancy (0 to 9) were used to describe all cows in a herd in a DP model. Twenty-seven scenarios based on all combinations of 3 levels (base, 20% above, and 20% below) of milk production, milk price, and replacement cost were solved with the DP model, resulting in a data set of 122,716 records, each with a calculated retention pay-off (RPO). Then, a machine learning model tree algorithm was used to mimic the evaluated RPO with DP. The correlation coefficient factor was used to observe the concordance of RPO evaluated by DP and RPO predicted by the model tree. The obtained correlation coefficient was 0.991, with a corresponding value of 0.11 for relative absolute error. At least 100 instances were required per model constraint, resulting in 204 total equations (models). When these models were used for binary classification of positive and negative RPO, error rates were 1% false negatives and 9% false positives. Applying this trained model from simulated data for prediction of RPO for 102 actual replacement records from the University of Wisconsin-Madison dairy herd resulted in a 0.994 correlation with 0.10 relative absolute error rate. Overall results showed that model tree has a potential to be used in conjunction with DP to assist farmers in their replacement decisions. Copyright © 2014 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Application of a Hybrid Model for Predicting the Incidence of Tuberculosis in Hubei, China

PubMed Central

Zhang, Guoliang; Huang, Shuqiong; Duan, Qionghong; Shu, Wen; Hou, Yongchun; Zhu, Shiyu; Miao, Xiaoping; Nie, Shaofa; Wei, Sheng; Guo, Nan; Shan, Hua; Xu, Yihua

2013-01-01

Background A prediction model for tuberculosis incidence is needed in China which may be used as a decision-supportive tool for planning health interventions and allocating health resources. Methods The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was first constructed with the data of tuberculosis report rate in Hubei Province from Jan 2004 to Dec 2011.The data from Jan 2012 to Jun 2012 were used to validate the model. Then the generalized regression neural network (GRNN)-ARIMA combination model was established based on the constructed ARIMA model. Finally, the fitting and prediction accuracy of the two models was evaluated. Results A total of 465,960 cases were reported between Jan 2004 and Dec 2011 in Hubei Province. The report rate of tuberculosis was highest in 2005 (119.932 per 100,000 population) and lowest in 2010 (84.724 per 100,000 population). The time series of tuberculosis report rate show a gradual secular decline and a striking seasonal variation. The ARIMA (2, 1, 0) × (0, 1, 1)12 model was selected from several plausible ARIMA models. The residual mean square error of the GRNN-ARIMA model and ARIMA model were 0.4467 and 0.6521 in training part, and 0.0958 and 0.1133 in validation part, respectively. The mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error of the hybrid model were also less than the ARIMA model. Discussion and Conclusions The gradual decline in tuberculosis report rate may be attributed to the effect of intensive measures on tuberculosis. The striking seasonal variation may have resulted from several factors. We suppose that a delay in the surveillance system may also have contributed to the variation. According to the fitting and prediction accuracy, the hybrid model outperforms the traditional ARIMA model, which may facilitate the allocation of health resources in China. PMID:24223232

Prediction of wastewater quality indicators at the inflow to the wastewater treatment plant using data mining methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szeląg, Bartosz; Barbusiński, Krzysztof; Studziński, Jan; Bartkiewicz, Lidia

2017-11-01

In the study, models developed using data mining methods are proposed for predicting wastewater quality indicators: biochemical and chemical oxygen demand, total suspended solids, total nitrogen and total phosphorus at the inflow to wastewater treatment plant (WWTP). The models are based on values measured in previous time steps and daily wastewater inflows. Also, independent prediction systems that can be used in case of monitoring devices malfunction are provided. Models of wastewater quality indicators were developed using MARS (multivariate adaptive regression spline) method, artificial neural networks (ANN) of the multilayer perceptron type combined with the classification model (SOM) and cascade neural networks (CNN). The lowest values of absolute and relative errors were obtained using ANN+SOM, whereas the MARS method produced the highest error values. It was shown that for the analysed WWTP it is possible to obtain continuous prediction of selected wastewater quality indicators using the two developed independent prediction systems. Such models can ensure reliable WWTP work when wastewater quality monitoring systems become inoperable, or are under maintenance.

Constraining Lyman continuum escape using Machine Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giri, Sambit K.; Zackrisson, Erik; Binggeli, Christian; Pelckmans, Kristiaan; Cubo, Rubén; Mellema, Garrelt

2018-05-01

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) will observe the rest-frame ultraviolet/optical spectra of galaxies from the epoch of reionization (EoR) in unprecedented detail. While escaping into the intergalactic medium, hydrogen-ionizing (Lyman continuum; LyC) photons from the galaxies will contribute to the bluer end of the UV slope and make nebular emission lines less prominent. We present a method to constrain leakage of the LyC photons using the spectra of high redshift (z >~ 6) galaxies. We simulate JWST/NIRSpec observations of galaxies at z =6-9 by matching the fluxes of galaxies observed in the Frontier Fields observations of galaxy cluster MACS-J0416. Our method predicts the escape fraction fesc with a mean absolute error Δfesc ~ 0.14. The method also predicts the redshifts of the galaxies with an error .

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xing, Y; Macq, B; Bondar, L

Purpose: To quantify the accuracy in predicting the Bragg peak position using simulated in-room measurements of prompt gamma (PG) emissions for realistic treatment error scenarios that combine several sources of errors. Methods: Prompt gamma measurements by a knife-edge slit camera were simulated using an experimentally validated analytical simulation tool. Simulations were performed, for 143 treatment error scenarios, on an anthropomorphic phantom and a pencil beam scanning plan for nasal cavity. Three types of errors were considered: translation along each axis, rotation around each axis, and CT-calibration errors with magnitude ranging respectively, between −3 and 3 mm, −5 and 5 degrees,more » and between −5 and +5%. We investigated the correlation between the Bragg peak (BP) shift and the horizontal shift of PG profiles. The shifts were calculated between the planned (reference) position and the position by the error scenario. The prediction error for one spot was calculated as the absolute difference between the PG profile shift and the BP shift. Results: The PG shift was significantly and strongly correlated with the BP shift for 92% of the cases (p<0.0001, Pearson correlation coefficient R>0.8). Moderate but significant correlations were obtained for all cases that considered only CT-calibration errors and for 1 case that combined translation and CT-errors (p<0.0001, R ranged between 0.61 and 0.8). The average prediction errors for the simulated scenarios ranged between 0.08±0.07 and 1.67±1.3 mm (grand mean 0.66±0.76 mm). The prediction error was moderately correlated with the value of the BP shift (p=0, R=0.64). For the simulated scenarios the average BP shift ranged between −8±6.5 mm and 3±1.1 mm. Scenarios that considered combinations of the largest treatment errors were associated with large BP shifts. Conclusion: Simulations of in-room measurements demonstrate that prompt gamma profiles provide reliable estimation of the Bragg peak position for complex error scenarios. Yafei Xing and Luiza Bondar are funded by BEWARE grants from the Walloon Region. The work presents simulations results for a prompt gamma camera prototype developed by IBA.« less

External Evaluation of Two Fluconazole Infant Population Pharmacokinetic Models

PubMed Central

Hwang, Michael F.; Beechinor, Ryan J.; Wade, Kelly C.; Benjamin, Daniel K.; Smith, P. Brian; Hornik, Christoph P.; Capparelli, Edmund V.; Duara, Shahnaz; Kennedy, Kathleen A.; Cohen-Wolkowiez, Michael

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Fluconazole is an antifungal agent used for the treatment of invasive candidiasis, a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in premature infants. Population pharmacokinetic (PK) models of fluconazole in infants have been previously published by Wade et al. (Antimicrob Agents Chemother 52:4043–4049, 2008, https://doi.org/10.1128/AAC.00569-08) and Momper et al. (Antimicrob Agents Chemother 60:5539–5545, 2016, https://doi.org/10.1128/AAC.00963-16). Here we report the results of the first external evaluation of the predictive performance of both models. We used patient-level data from both studies to externally evaluate both PK models. The predictive performance of each model was evaluated using the model prediction error (PE), mean prediction error (MPE), mean absolute prediction error (MAPE), prediction-corrected visual predictive check (pcVPC), and normalized prediction distribution errors (NPDE). The values of the parameters of each model were reestimated using both the external and merged data sets. When evaluated with the external data set, the model proposed by Wade et al. showed lower median PE, MPE, and MAPE (0.429 μg/ml, 41.9%, and 57.6%, respectively) than the model proposed by Momper et al. (2.45 μg/ml, 188%, and 195%, respectively). The values of the majority of reestimated parameters were within 20% of their respective original parameter values for all model evaluations. Our analysis determined that though both models are robust, the model proposed by Wade et al. had greater accuracy and precision than the model proposed by Momper et al., likely because it was derived from a patient population with a wider age range. This study highlights the importance of the external evaluation of infant population PK models. PMID:28893774

A Novel RSSI Prediction Using Imperialist Competition Algorithm (ICA), Radial Basis Function (RBF) and Firefly Algorithm (FFA) in Wireless Networks

PubMed Central

Goudarzi, Shidrokh; Haslina Hassan, Wan; Abdalla Hashim, Aisha-Hassan; Soleymani, Seyed Ahmad; Anisi, Mohammad Hossein; Zakaria, Omar M.

2016-01-01

This study aims to design a vertical handover prediction method to minimize unnecessary handovers for a mobile node (MN) during the vertical handover process. This relies on a novel method for the prediction of a received signal strength indicator (RSSI) referred to as IRBF-FFA, which is designed by utilizing the imperialist competition algorithm (ICA) to train the radial basis function (RBF), and by hybridizing with the firefly algorithm (FFA) to predict the optimal solution. The prediction accuracy of the proposed IRBF–FFA model was validated by comparing it to support vector machines (SVMs) and multilayer perceptron (MLP) models. In order to assess the model’s performance, we measured the coefficient of determination (R2), correlation coefficient (r), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The achieved results indicate that the IRBF–FFA model provides more precise predictions compared to different ANNs, namely, support vector machines (SVMs) and multilayer perceptron (MLP). The performance of the proposed model is analyzed through simulated and real-time RSSI measurements. The results also suggest that the IRBF–FFA model can be applied as an efficient technique for the accurate prediction of vertical handover. PMID:27438600

A Novel RSSI Prediction Using Imperialist Competition Algorithm (ICA), Radial Basis Function (RBF) and Firefly Algorithm (FFA) in Wireless Networks.

PubMed

Goudarzi, Shidrokh; Haslina Hassan, Wan; Abdalla Hashim, Aisha-Hassan; Soleymani, Seyed Ahmad; Anisi, Mohammad Hossein; Zakaria, Omar M

2016-01-01

This study aims to design a vertical handover prediction method to minimize unnecessary handovers for a mobile node (MN) during the vertical handover process. This relies on a novel method for the prediction of a received signal strength indicator (RSSI) referred to as IRBF-FFA, which is designed by utilizing the imperialist competition algorithm (ICA) to train the radial basis function (RBF), and by hybridizing with the firefly algorithm (FFA) to predict the optimal solution. The prediction accuracy of the proposed IRBF-FFA model was validated by comparing it to support vector machines (SVMs) and multilayer perceptron (MLP) models. In order to assess the model's performance, we measured the coefficient of determination (R2), correlation coefficient (r), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The achieved results indicate that the IRBF-FFA model provides more precise predictions compared to different ANNs, namely, support vector machines (SVMs) and multilayer perceptron (MLP). The performance of the proposed model is analyzed through simulated and real-time RSSI measurements. The results also suggest that the IRBF-FFA model can be applied as an efficient technique for the accurate prediction of vertical handover.

Evaluation and comparison of predictive individual-level general surrogates.

PubMed

Gabriel, Erin E; Sachs, Michael C; Halloran, M Elizabeth

2018-07-01

An intermediate response measure that accurately predicts efficacy in a new setting at the individual level could be used both for prediction and personalized medical decisions. In this article, we define a predictive individual-level general surrogate (PIGS), which is an individual-level intermediate response that can be used to accurately predict individual efficacy in a new setting. While methods for evaluating trial-level general surrogates, which are predictors of trial-level efficacy, have been developed previously, few, if any, methods have been developed to evaluate individual-level general surrogates, and no methods have formalized the use of cross-validation to quantify the expected prediction error. Our proposed method uses existing methods of individual-level surrogate evaluation within a given clinical trial setting in combination with cross-validation over a set of clinical trials to evaluate surrogate quality and to estimate the absolute prediction error that is expected in a new trial setting when using a PIGS. Simulations show that our method performs well across a variety of scenarios. We use our method to evaluate and to compare candidate individual-level general surrogates over a set of multi-national trials of a pentavalent rotavirus vaccine.

Modeling and Predicting the Electrical Conductivity of Composite Cathode for Solid Oxide Fuel Cell by Using Support Vector Regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, J. L.; Cai, C. Z.; Xiao, T. T.; Huang, S. J.

2012-07-01

The electrical conductivity of solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) cathode is one of the most important indices affecting the efficiency of SOFC. In order to improve the performance of fuel cell system, it is advantageous to have accurate model with which one can predict the electrical conductivity. In this paper, a model utilizing support vector regression (SVR) approach combined with particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm for its parameter optimization was established to modeling and predicting the electrical conductivity of Ba0.5Sr0.5Co0.8Fe0.2 O3-δ-xSm0.5Sr0.5CoO3-δ (BSCF-xSSC) composite cathode under two influence factors, including operating temperature (T) and SSC content (x) in BSCF-xSSC composite cathode. The leave-one-out cross validation (LOOCV) test result by SVR strongly supports that the generalization ability of SVR model is high enough. The absolute percentage error (APE) of 27 samples does not exceed 0.05%. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of all 30 samples is only 0.09% and the correlation coefficient (R2) as high as 0.999. This investigation suggests that the hybrid PSO-SVR approach may be not only a promising and practical methodology to simulate the properties of fuel cell system, but also a powerful tool to be used for optimal designing or controlling the operating process of a SOFC system.

Towards a chromatographic similarity index to establish localised quantitative structure-retention relationships for retention prediction. II Use of Tanimoto similarity index in ion chromatography.

PubMed

Park, Soo Hyun; Talebi, Mohammad; Amos, Ruth I J; Tyteca, Eva; Haddad, Paul R; Szucs, Roman; Pohl, Christopher A; Dolan, John W

2017-11-10

Quantitative Structure-Retention Relationships (QSRR) are used to predict retention times of compounds based only on their chemical structures encoded by molecular descriptors. The main concern in QSRR modelling is to build models with high predictive power, allowing reliable retention prediction for the unknown compounds across the chromatographic space. With the aim of enhancing the prediction power of the models, in this work, our previously proposed QSRR modelling approach called "federation of local models" is extended in ion chromatography to predict retention times of unknown ions, where a local model for each target ion (unknown) is created using only structurally similar ions from the dataset. A Tanimoto similarity (TS) score was utilised as a measure of structural similarity and training sets were developed by including ions that were similar to the target ion, as defined by a threshold value. The prediction of retention parameters (a- and b-values) in the linear solvent strength (LSS) model in ion chromatography, log k=a - blog[eluent], allows the prediction of retention times under all eluent concentrations. The QSRR models for a- and b-values were developed by a genetic algorithm-partial least squares method using the retention data of inorganic and small organic anions and larger organic cations (molecular mass up to 507) on four Thermo Fisher Scientific columns (AS20, AS19, AS11HC and CS17). The corresponding predicted retention times were calculated by fitting the predicted a- and b-values of the models into the LSS model equation. The predicted retention times were also plotted against the experimental values to evaluate the goodness of fit and the predictive power of the models. The application of a TS threshold of 0.6 was found to successfully produce predictive and reliable QSRR models (Q ext(F2) 2 >0.8 and Mean Absolute Error<0.1), and hence accurate retention time predictions with an average Mean Absolute Error of 0.2min. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fringe order correction for the absolute phase recovered by two selected spatial frequency fringe projections in fringe projection profilometry.

PubMed

Ding, Yi; Peng, Kai; Yu, Miao; Lu, Lei; Zhao, Kun

2017-08-01

The performance of the two selected spatial frequency phase unwrapping methods is limited by a phase error bound beyond which errors will occur in the fringe order leading to a significant error in the recovered absolute phase map. In this paper, we propose a method to detect and correct the wrong fringe orders. Two constraints are introduced during the fringe order determination of two selected spatial frequency phase unwrapping methods. A strategy to detect and correct the wrong fringe orders is also described. Compared with the existing methods, we do not need to estimate the threshold associated with absolute phase values to determine the fringe order error, thus making it more reliable and avoiding the procedure of search in detecting and correcting successive fringe order errors. The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated by the experimental results.

Evaluation of single-point sampling strategies for the estimation of moclobemide exposure in depressive patients.

PubMed

Ignjatovic, Anita Rakic; Miljkovic, Branislava; Todorovic, Dejan; Timotijevic, Ivana; Pokrajac, Milena

2011-05-01

Because moclobemide pharmacokinetics vary considerably among individuals, monitoring of plasma concentrations lends insight into its pharmacokinetic behavior and enhances its rational use in clinical practice. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether single concentration-time points could adequately predict moclobemide systemic exposure. Pharmacokinetic data (full 7-point pharmacokinetic profiles), obtained from 21 depressive inpatients receiving moclobemide (150 mg 3 times daily), were randomly split into development (n = 18) and validation (n = 16) sets. Correlations between the single concentration-time points and the area under the concentration-time curve within a 6-hour dosing interval at steady-state (AUC(0-6)) were assessed by linear regression analyses. The predictive performance of single-point sampling strategies was evaluated in the validation set by mean prediction error, mean absolute error, and root mean square error. Plasma concentrations in the absorption phase yielded unsatisfactory predictions of moclobemide AUC(0-6). The best estimation of AUC(0-6) was achieved from concentrations at 4 and 6 hours following dosing. As the most reliable surrogate for moclobemide systemic exposure, concentrations at 4 and 6 hours should be used instead of predose trough concentrations as an indicator of between-patient variability and a guide for dose adjustments in specific clinical situations.

Application of Artificial Neural Network and Response Surface Methodology in Modeling of Surface Roughness in WS2 Solid Lubricant Assisted MQL Turning of Inconel 718

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maheshwera Reddy Paturi, Uma; Devarasetti, Harish; Abimbola Fadare, David; Reddy Narala, Suresh Kumar

2018-04-01

In the present paper, the artificial neural network (ANN) and response surface methodology (RSM) are used in modeling of surface roughness in WS2 (tungsten disulphide) solid lubricant assisted minimal quantity lubrication (MQL) machining. The real time MQL turning of Inconel 718 experimental data considered in this paper was available in the literature [1]. In ANN modeling, performance parameters such as mean square error (MSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and average error in prediction (AEP) for the experimental data were determined based on Levenberg–Marquardt (LM) feed forward back propagation training algorithm with tansig as transfer function. The MATLAB tool box has been utilized in training and testing of neural network model. Neural network model with three input neurons, one hidden layer with five neurons and one output neuron (3-5-1 architecture) is found to be most confidence and optimal. The coefficient of determination (R2) for both the ANN and RSM model were seen to be 0.998 and 0.982 respectively. The surface roughness predictions from ANN and RSM model were related with experimentally measured values and found to be in good agreement with each other. However, the prediction efficacy of ANN model is relatively high when compared with RSM model predictions.

Pharmacokinetics of low-dose nedaplatin and validation of AUC prediction in patients with non-small-cell lung carcinoma.

PubMed

Niioka, Takenori; Uno, Tsukasa; Yasui-Furukori, Norio; Takahata, Takenori; Shimizu, Mikiko; Sugawara, Kazunobu; Tateishi, Tomonori

2007-04-01

The aim of this study was to determine the pharmacokinetics of low-dose nedaplatin combined with paclitaxel and radiation therapy in patients having non-small-cell lung carcinoma and establish the optimal dosage regimen for low-dose nedaplatin. We also evaluated predictive accuracy of reported formulas to estimate the area under the plasma concentration-time curve (AUC) of low-dose nedaplatin. A total of 19 patients were administered a constant intravenous infusion of 20 mg/m(2) body surface area (BSA) nedaplatin for an hour, and blood samples were collected at 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, and 19 h after the administration. Plasma concentrations of unbound platinum were measured, and the actual value of platinum AUC (actual AUC) was calculated based on these data. The predicted value of platinum AUC (predicted AUC) was determined by three predictive methods reported in previous studies, consisting of Bayesian method, limited sampling strategies with plasma concentration at a single time point, and simple formula method (SFM) without measured plasma concentration. Three error indices, mean prediction error (ME, measure of bias), mean absolute error (MAE, measure of accuracy), and root mean squared prediction error (RMSE, measure of precision), were obtained from the difference between the actual and the predicted AUC, to compare the accuracy between the three predictive methods. The AUC showed more than threefold inter-patient variation, and there was a favorable correlation between nedaplatin clearance and creatinine clearance (Ccr) (r = 0.832, P < 0.01). In three error indices, MAE and RMSE showed significant difference between the three AUC predictive methods, and the method of SFM had the most favorable results, in which %ME, %MAE, and %RMSE were 5.5, 10.7, and 15.4, respectively. The dosage regimen of low-dose nedaplatin should be established based on Ccr rather than on BSA. Since prediction accuracy of SFM, which did not require measured plasma concentration, was most favorable among the three methods evaluated in this study, SFM could be the most practical method to predict AUC of low-dose nedaplatin in a clinical situation judging from its high accuracy in predicting AUC without measured plasma concentration.

Comparative Time Series Analysis of Aerosol Optical Depth over Sites in United States and China Using ARIMA Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, X.; Zhang, C.; Li, W.

2017-12-01

Long-term spatiotemporal analysis and modeling of aerosol optical depth (AOD) distribution is of paramount importance to study radiative forcing, climate change, and human health. This study is focused on the trends and variations of AOD over six stations located in United States and China during 2003 to 2015, using satellite-retrieved Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) Collection 6 retrievals and ground measurements derived from Aerosol Robotic NETwork (AERONET). An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is applied to simulate and predict AOD values. The R2, adjusted R2, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) are used as indices to select the best fitted model. Results show that there is a persistent decreasing trend in AOD for both MODIS data and AERONET data over three stations. Monthly and seasonal AOD variations reveal consistent aerosol patterns over stations along mid-latitudes. Regional differences impacted by climatology and land cover types are observed for the selected stations. Statistical validation of time series models indicates that the non-seasonal ARIMA model performs better for AERONET AOD data than for MODIS AOD data over most stations, suggesting the method works better for data with higher quality. By contrast, the seasonal ARIMA model reproduces the seasonal variations of MODIS AOD data much more precisely. Overall, the reasonably predicted results indicate the applicability and feasibility of the stochastic ARIMA modeling technique to forecast future and missing AOD values.

Piezocomposite Actuator Arrays for Correcting and Controlling Wavefront Error in Reflectors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bradford, Samuel Case; Peterson, Lee D.; Ohara, Catherine M.; Shi, Fang; Agnes, Greg S.; Hoffman, Samuel M.; Wilkie, William Keats

2012-01-01

Three reflectors have been developed and tested to assess the performance of a distributed network of piezocomposite actuators for correcting thermal deformations and total wave-front error. The primary testbed article is an active composite reflector, composed of a spherically curved panel with a graphite face sheet and aluminum honeycomb core composite, and then augmented with a network of 90 distributed piezoelectric composite actuators. The piezoelectric actuator system may be used for correcting as-built residual shape errors, and for controlling low-order, thermally-induced quasi-static distortions of the panel. In this study, thermally-induced surface deformations of 1 to 5 microns were deliberately introduced onto the reflector, then measured using a speckle holography interferometer system. The reflector surface figure was subsequently corrected to a tolerance of 50 nm using the actuators embedded in the reflector's back face sheet. Two additional test articles were constructed: a borosilicate at window at 150 mm diameter with 18 actuators bonded to the back surface; and a direct metal laser sintered reflector with spherical curvature, 230 mm diameter, and 12 actuators bonded to the back surface. In the case of the glass reflector, absolute measurements were performed with an interferometer and the absolute surface was corrected. These test articles were evaluated to determine their absolute surface control capabilities, as well as to assess a multiphysics modeling effort developed under this program for the prediction of active reflector response. This paper will describe the design, construction, and testing of active reflector systems under thermal loads, and subsequent correction of surface shape via distributed peizeoelctric actuation.

Prediction of CO concentrations based on a hybrid Partial Least Square and Support Vector Machine model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeganeh, B.; Motlagh, M. Shafie Pour; Rashidi, Y.; Kamalan, H.

2012-08-01

Due to the health impacts caused by exposures to air pollutants in urban areas, monitoring and forecasting of air quality parameters have become popular as an important topic in atmospheric and environmental research today. The knowledge on the dynamics and complexity of air pollutants behavior has made artificial intelligence models as a useful tool for a more accurate pollutant concentration prediction. This paper focuses on an innovative method of daily air pollution prediction using combination of Support Vector Machine (SVM) as predictor and Partial Least Square (PLS) as a data selection tool based on the measured values of CO concentrations. The CO concentrations of Rey monitoring station in the south of Tehran, from Jan. 2007 to Feb. 2011, have been used to test the effectiveness of this method. The hourly CO concentrations have been predicted using the SVM and the hybrid PLS-SVM models. Similarly, daily CO concentrations have been predicted based on the aforementioned four years measured data. Results demonstrated that both models have good prediction ability; however the hybrid PLS-SVM has better accuracy. In the analysis presented in this paper, statistic estimators including relative mean errors, root mean squared errors and the mean absolute relative error have been employed to compare performances of the models. It has been concluded that the errors decrease after size reduction and coefficients of determination increase from 56 to 81% for SVM model to 65-85% for hybrid PLS-SVM model respectively. Also it was found that the hybrid PLS-SVM model required lower computational time than SVM model as expected, hence supporting the more accurate and faster prediction ability of hybrid PLS-SVM model.

A simplified model of a mechanical cooling tower with both a fill pack and a coil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Riet, Freek; Steenackers, Gunther; Verhaert, Ivan

2017-11-01

Cooling accounts for a large amount of the global primary energy consumption in buildings and industrial processes. A substantial part of this cooling demand is produced by mechanical cooling towers. Simulations benefit the sizing and integration of cooling towers in overall cooling networks. However, for these simulations fast-to-calculate and easy-to-parametrize models are required. In this paper, a new model is developed for a mechanical draught cooling tower with both a cooling coil and a fill pack. The model needs manufacturers' performance data at only three operational states (at varying air and water flow rates) to be parametrized. The model predicts the cooled, outgoing water temperature. These predictions were compared with experimental data for a wide range of operational states. The model was able to predict the temperature with a maximum absolute error of 0.59°C. The relative error of cooling capacity was mostly between ±5%.

Principal component analysis and neurocomputing-based models for total ozone concentration over different urban regions of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chattopadhyay, Goutami; Chattopadhyay, Surajit; Chakraborthy, Parthasarathi

2012-07-01

The present study deals with daily total ozone concentration time series over four metro cities of India namely Kolkata, Mumbai, Chennai, and New Delhi in the multivariate environment. Using the Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin measure, it is established that the data set under consideration are suitable for principal component analysis. Subsequently, by introducing rotated component matrix for the principal components, the predictors suitable for generating artificial neural network (ANN) for daily total ozone prediction are identified. The multicollinearity is removed in this way. Models of ANN in the form of multilayer perceptron trained through backpropagation learning are generated for all of the study zones, and the model outcomes are assessed statistically. Measuring various statistics like Pearson correlation coefficients, Willmott's indices, percentage errors of prediction, and mean absolute errors, it is observed that for Mumbai and Kolkata the proposed ANN model generates very good predictions. The results are supported by the linearly distributed coordinates in the scatterplots.

A Modified Double Multiple Nonlinear Regression Constitutive Equation for Modeling and Prediction of High Temperature Flow Behavior of BFe10-1-2 Alloy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Jun; Wang, Kuaishe; Shi, Jiamin; Wang, Wen; Liu, Yingying

2018-01-01

Constitutive analysis for hot working of BFe10-1-2 alloy was carried out by using experimental stress-strain data from isothermal hot compression tests, in a wide range of temperature of 1,023 1,273 K, and strain rate range of 0.001 10 s-1. A constitutive equation based on modified double multiple nonlinear regression was proposed considering the independent effects of strain, strain rate, temperature and their interrelation. The predicted flow stress data calculated from the developed equation was compared with the experimental data. Correlation coefficient (R), average absolute relative error (AARE) and relative errors were introduced to verify the validity of the developed constitutive equation. Subsequently, a comparative study was made on the capability of strain-compensated Arrhenius-type constitutive model. The results showed that the developed constitutive equation based on modified double multiple nonlinear regression could predict flow stress of BFe10-1-2 alloy with good correlation and generalization.

Soil-pipe interaction modeling for pipe behavior prediction with super learning based methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Fang; Peng, Xiang; Liu, Huan; Hu, Yafei; Liu, Zheng; Li, Eric

2018-03-01

Underground pipelines are subject to severe distress from the surrounding expansive soil. To investigate the structural response of water mains to varying soil movements, field data, including pipe wall strains in situ soil water content, soil pressure and temperature, was collected. The research on monitoring data analysis has been reported, but the relationship between soil properties and pipe deformation has not been well-interpreted. To characterize the relationship between soil property and pipe deformation, this paper presents a super learning based approach combining feature selection algorithms to predict the water mains structural behavior in different soil environments. Furthermore, automatic variable selection method, e.i. recursive feature elimination algorithm, were used to identify the critical predictors contributing to the pipe deformations. To investigate the adaptability of super learning to different predictive models, this research employed super learning based methods to three different datasets. The predictive performance was evaluated by R-squared, root-mean-square error and mean absolute error. Based on the prediction performance evaluation, the superiority of super learning was validated and demonstrated by predicting three types of pipe deformations accurately. In addition, a comprehensive understand of the water mains working environments becomes possible.

Does exposure to simulated patient cases improve accuracy of clinicians' predictive value estimates of diagnostic test results? A within-subjects experiment at St Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada.

PubMed

Armstrong, Bonnie; Spaniol, Julia; Persaud, Nav

2018-02-13

Clinicians often overestimate the probability of a disease given a positive test result (positive predictive value; PPV) and the probability of no disease given a negative test result (negative predictive value; NPV). The purpose of this study was to investigate whether experiencing simulated patient cases (ie, an 'experience format') would promote more accurate PPV and NPV estimates compared with a numerical format. Participants were presented with information about three diagnostic tests for the same fictitious disease and were asked to estimate the PPV and NPV of each test. Tests varied with respect to sensitivity and specificity. Information about each test was presented once in the numerical format and once in the experience format. The study used a 2 (format: numerical vs experience) × 3 (diagnostic test: gold standard vs low sensitivity vs low specificity) within-subjects design. The study was completed online, via Qualtrics (Provo, Utah, USA). 50 physicians (12 clinicians and 38 residents) from the Department of Family and Community Medicine at St Michael's Hospital in Toronto, Canada, completed the study. All participants had completed at least 1 year of residency. Estimation accuracy was quantified by the mean absolute error (MAE; absolute difference between estimate and true predictive value). PPV estimation errors were larger in the numerical format (MAE=32.6%, 95% CI 26.8% to 38.4%) compared with the experience format (MAE=15.9%, 95% CI 11.8% to 20.0%, d =0.697, P<0.001). Likewise, NPV estimation errors were larger in the numerical format (MAE=24.4%, 95% CI 14.5% to 34.3%) than in the experience format (MAE=11.0%, 95% CI 6.5% to 15.5%, d =0.303, P=0.015). Exposure to simulated patient cases promotes accurate estimation of predictive values in clinicians. This finding carries implications for diagnostic training and practice. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

[Model of multiple seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model and its application in prediction of the hand-foot-mouth disease incidence in Changsha].

PubMed

Tan, Ting; Chen, Lizhang; Liu, Fuqiang

2014-11-01

To establish multiple seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) according to the hand-foot-mouth disease incidence in Changsha, and to explore the feasibility of the multiple seasonal ARIMA in predicting the hand-foot-mouth disease incidence. EVIEWS 6.0 was used to establish multiple seasonal ARIMA according to the hand-foot- mouth disease incidence from May 2008 to August 2013 in Changsha, and the data of the hand- foot-mouth disease incidence from September 2013 to February 2014 were served as the examined samples of the multiple seasonal ARIMA, then the errors were compared between the forecasted incidence and the real value. Finally, the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease from March 2014 to August 2014 was predicted by the model. After the data sequence was handled by smooth sequence, model identification and model diagnosis, the multiple seasonal ARIMA (1, 0, 1)×(0, 1, 1)12 was established. The R2 value of the model fitting degree was 0.81, the root mean square prediction error was 8.29 and the mean absolute error was 5.83. The multiple seasonal ARIMA is a good prediction model, and the fitting degree is good. It can provide reference for the prevention and control work in hand-foot-mouth disease.

Attentional effects on orientation judgements are dependent on memory consolidation processes.

PubMed

Haskell, Christie; Anderson, Britt

2016-11-01

Are the effects of memory and attention on perception synergistic, antagonistic, or independent? Tested separately, memory and attention have been shown to affect the accuracy of orientation judgements. When multiple stimuli are presented sequentially versus simultaneously, error variance is reduced. When a target is validly cued, precision is increased. What if they are manipulated together? We combined memory and attention manipulations in an orientation judgement task to answer this question. Two circular gratings were presented sequentially or simultaneously. On some trials a brief luminance cue preceded the stimuli. Participants were cued to report the orientation of one of the two gratings by rotating a response grating. We replicated the finding that error variance is reduced on sequential trials. Critically, we found interacting effects of memory and attention. Valid cueing reduced the median, absolute error only when two stimuli appeared together and improved it to the level of performance on uncued sequential trials, whereas invalid cueing always increased error. This effect was not mediated by cue predictiveness; however, predictive cues reduced the standard deviation of the error distribution, whereas nonpredictive cues reduced "guessing". Our results suggest that, when the demand on memory is greater than a single stimulus, attention is a bottom-up process that prioritizes stimuli for consolidation. Thus attention and memory are synergistic.

Clinical time series prediction: towards a hierarchical dynamical system framework

PubMed Central

Liu, Zitao; Hauskrecht, Milos

2014-01-01

Objective Developing machine learning and data mining algorithms for building temporal models of clinical time series is important for understanding of the patient condition, the dynamics of a disease, effect of various patient management interventions and clinical decision making. In this work, we propose and develop a novel hierarchical framework for modeling clinical time series data of varied length and with irregularly sampled observations. Materials and methods Our hierarchical dynamical system framework for modeling clinical time series combines advantages of the two temporal modeling approaches: the linear dynamical system and the Gaussian process. We model the irregularly sampled clinical time series by using multiple Gaussian process sequences in the lower level of our hierarchical framework and capture the transitions between Gaussian processes by utilizing the linear dynamical system. The experiments are conducted on the complete blood count (CBC) panel data of 1000 post-surgical cardiac patients during their hospitalization. Our framework is evaluated and compared to multiple baseline approaches in terms of the mean absolute prediction error and the absolute percentage error. Results We tested our framework by first learning the time series model from data for the patient in the training set, and then applying the model in order to predict future time series values on the patients in the test set. We show that our model outperforms multiple existing models in terms of its predictive accuracy. Our method achieved a 3.13% average prediction accuracy improvement on ten CBC lab time series when it was compared against the best performing baseline. A 5.25% average accuracy improvement was observed when only short-term predictions were considered. Conclusion A new hierarchical dynamical system framework that lets us model irregularly sampled time series data is a promising new direction for modeling clinical time series and for improving their predictive performance. PMID:25534671

Generalized approach for using unbiased symmetric metrics with negative values: normalized mean bias factor and normalized mean absolute error factor

EPA Science Inventory

Unbiased symmetric metrics provide a useful measure to quickly compare two datasets, with similar interpretations for both under and overestimations. Two examples include the normalized mean bias factor and normalized mean absolute error factor. However, the original formulations...

Estimating the densities of benzene-derived explosives using atomic volumes.

PubMed

Ghule, Vikas D; Nirwan, Ayushi; Devi, Alka

2018-02-09

The application of average atomic volumes to predict the crystal densities of benzene-derived energetic compounds of general formula C a H b N c O d is presented, along with the reliability of this method. The densities of 119 neutral nitrobenzenes, energetic salts, and cocrystals with diverse compositions were estimated and compared with experimental data. Of the 74 nitrobenzenes for which direct comparisons could be made, the % error in the estimated density was within 0-3% for 54 compounds, 3-5% for 12 compounds, and 5-8% for the remaining 8 compounds. Among 45 energetic salts and cocrystals, the % error in the estimated density was within 0-3% for 25 compounds, 3-5% for 13 compounds, and 5-7.4% for 7 compounds. The absolute error surpassed 0.05 g/cm 3 for 27 of the 119 compounds (22%). The largest errors occurred for compounds containing fused rings and for compounds with three -NH 2 or -OH groups. Overall, the present approach for estimating the densities of benzene-derived explosives with different functional groups was found to be reliable. Graphical abstract Application and reliability of average atom volume in the crystal density prediction of energetic compounds containing benzene ring.

Phytoremediation of palm oil mill secondary effluent (POMSE) by Chrysopogon zizanioides (L.) using artificial neural networks.

PubMed

Darajeh, Negisa; Idris, Azni; Fard Masoumi, Hamid Reza; Nourani, Abolfazl; Truong, Paul; Rezania, Shahabaldin

2017-05-04

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been widely used to solve the problems because of their reliable, robust, and salient characteristics in capturing the nonlinear relationships between variables in complex systems. In this study, ANN was applied for modeling of Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) and biodegradable organic matter (BOD) removal from palm oil mill secondary effluent (POMSE) by vetiver system. The independent variable, including POMSE concentration, vetiver slips density, and removal time, has been considered as input parameters to optimize the network, while the removal percentage of COD and BOD were selected as output. To determine the number of hidden layer nodes, the root mean squared error of testing set was minimized, and the topologies of the algorithms were compared by coefficient of determination and absolute average deviation. The comparison indicated that the quick propagation (QP) algorithm had minimum root mean squared error and absolute average deviation, and maximum coefficient of determination. The importance values of the variables was included vetiver slips density with 42.41%, time with 29.8%, and the POMSE concentration with 27.79%, which showed none of them, is negligible. Results show that the ANN has great potential ability in prediction of COD and BOD removal from POMSE with residual standard error (RSE) of less than 0.45%.

A PRELIMINARY JUPITER MODEL

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hubbard, W. B.; Militzer, B.

In anticipation of new observational results for Jupiter's axial moment of inertia and gravitational zonal harmonic coefficients from the forthcoming Juno orbiter, we present a number of preliminary Jupiter interior models. We combine results from ab initio computer simulations of hydrogen–helium mixtures, including immiscibility calculations, with a new nonperturbative calculation of Jupiter's zonal harmonic coefficients, to derive a self-consistent model for the planet's external gravity and moment of inertia. We assume helium rain modified the interior temperature and composition profiles. Our calculation predicts zonal harmonic values to which measurements can be compared. Although some models fit the observed (pre-Juno) second-more » and fourth-order zonal harmonics to within their error bars, our preferred reference model predicts a fourth-order zonal harmonic whose absolute value lies above the pre-Juno error bars. This model has a dense core of about 12 Earth masses and a hydrogen–helium-rich envelope with approximately three times solar metallicity.« less

An optimized Nash nonlinear grey Bernoulli model based on particle swarm optimization and its application in prediction for the incidence of Hepatitis B in Xinjiang, China.

PubMed

Zhang, Liping; Zheng, Yanling; Wang, Kai; Zhang, Xueliang; Zheng, Yujian

2014-06-01

In this paper, by using a particle swarm optimization algorithm to solve the optimal parameter estimation problem, an improved Nash nonlinear grey Bernoulli model termed PSO-NNGBM(1,1) is proposed. To test the forecasting performance, the optimized model is applied for forecasting the incidence of hepatitis B in Xinjiang, China. Four models, traditional GM(1,1), grey Verhulst model (GVM), original nonlinear grey Bernoulli model (NGBM(1,1)) and Holt-Winters exponential smoothing method, are also established for comparison with the proposed model under the criteria of mean absolute percentage error and root mean square percent error. The prediction results show that the optimized NNGBM(1,1) model is more accurate and performs better than the traditional GM(1,1), GVM, NGBM(1,1) and Holt-Winters exponential smoothing method. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Gene expression programming approach for the estimation of moisture ratio in herbal plants drying with vacuum heat pump dryer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dikmen, Erkan; Ayaz, Mahir; Gül, Doğan; Şahin, Arzu Şencan

2017-07-01

The determination of drying behavior of herbal plants is a complex process. In this study, gene expression programming (GEP) model was used to determine drying behavior of herbal plants as fresh sweet basil, parsley and dill leaves. Time and drying temperatures are input parameters for the estimation of moisture ratio of herbal plants. The results of the GEP model are compared with experimental drying data. The statistical values as mean absolute percentage error, root-mean-squared error and R-square are used to calculate the difference between values predicted by the GEP model and the values actually observed from the experimental study. It was found that the results of the GEP model and experimental study are in moderately well agreement. The results have shown that the GEP model can be considered as an efficient modelling technique for the prediction of moisture ratio of herbal plants.

Deep learning methods for protein torsion angle prediction.

PubMed

Li, Haiou; Hou, Jie; Adhikari, Badri; Lyu, Qiang; Cheng, Jianlin

2017-09-18

Deep learning is one of the most powerful machine learning methods that has achieved the state-of-the-art performance in many domains. Since deep learning was introduced to the field of bioinformatics in 2012, it has achieved success in a number of areas such as protein residue-residue contact prediction, secondary structure prediction, and fold recognition. In this work, we developed deep learning methods to improve the prediction of torsion (dihedral) angles of proteins. We design four different deep learning architectures to predict protein torsion angles. The architectures including deep neural network (DNN) and deep restricted Boltzmann machine (DRBN), deep recurrent neural network (DRNN) and deep recurrent restricted Boltzmann machine (DReRBM) since the protein torsion angle prediction is a sequence related problem. In addition to existing protein features, two new features (predicted residue contact number and the error distribution of torsion angles extracted from sequence fragments) are used as input to each of the four deep learning architectures to predict phi and psi angles of protein backbone. The mean absolute error (MAE) of phi and psi angles predicted by DRNN, DReRBM, DRBM and DNN is about 20-21° and 29-30° on an independent dataset. The MAE of phi angle is comparable to the existing methods, but the MAE of psi angle is 29°, 2° lower than the existing methods. On the latest CASP12 targets, our methods also achieved the performance better than or comparable to a state-of-the art method. Our experiment demonstrates that deep learning is a valuable method for predicting protein torsion angles. The deep recurrent network architecture performs slightly better than deep feed-forward architecture, and the predicted residue contact number and the error distribution of torsion angles extracted from sequence fragments are useful features for improving prediction accuracy.

Bayesian dynamic modeling of time series of dengue disease case counts.

PubMed

Martínez-Bello, Daniel Adyro; López-Quílez, Antonio; Torres-Prieto, Alexander

2017-07-01

The aim of this study is to model the association between weekly time series of dengue case counts and meteorological variables, in a high-incidence city of Colombia, applying Bayesian hierarchical dynamic generalized linear models over the period January 2008 to August 2015. Additionally, we evaluate the model's short-term performance for predicting dengue cases. The methodology shows dynamic Poisson log link models including constant or time-varying coefficients for the meteorological variables. Calendar effects were modeled using constant or first- or second-order random walk time-varying coefficients. The meteorological variables were modeled using constant coefficients and first-order random walk time-varying coefficients. We applied Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations for parameter estimation, and deviance information criterion statistic (DIC) for model selection. We assessed the short-term predictive performance of the selected final model, at several time points within the study period using the mean absolute percentage error. The results showed the best model including first-order random walk time-varying coefficients for calendar trend and first-order random walk time-varying coefficients for the meteorological variables. Besides the computational challenges, interpreting the results implies a complete analysis of the time series of dengue with respect to the parameter estimates of the meteorological effects. We found small values of the mean absolute percentage errors at one or two weeks out-of-sample predictions for most prediction points, associated with low volatility periods in the dengue counts. We discuss the advantages and limitations of the dynamic Poisson models for studying the association between time series of dengue disease and meteorological variables. The key conclusion of the study is that dynamic Poisson models account for the dynamic nature of the variables involved in the modeling of time series of dengue disease, producing useful models for decision-making in public health.

Relative location prediction in CT scan images using convolutional neural networks.

PubMed

Guo, Jiajia; Du, Hongwei; Zhu, Jianyue; Yan, Ting; Qiu, Bensheng

2018-07-01

Relative location prediction in computed tomography (CT) scan images is a challenging problem. Many traditional machine learning methods have been applied in attempts to alleviate this problem. However, the accuracy and speed of these methods cannot meet the requirement of medical scenario. In this paper, we propose a regression model based on one-dimensional convolutional neural networks (CNN) to determine the relative location of a CT scan image both quickly and precisely. In contrast to other common CNN models that use a two-dimensional image as an input, the input of this CNN model is a feature vector extracted by a shape context algorithm with spatial correlation. Normalization via z-score is first applied as a pre-processing step. Then, in order to prevent overfitting and improve model's performance, 20% of the elements of the feature vectors are randomly set to zero. This CNN model consists primarily of three one-dimensional convolutional layers, three dropout layers and two fully-connected layers with appropriate loss functions. A public dataset is employed to validate the performance of the proposed model using a 5-fold cross validation. Experimental results demonstrate an excellent performance of the proposed model when compared with contemporary techniques, achieving a median absolute error of 1.04 cm and mean absolute error of 1.69 cm. The time taken for each relative location prediction is approximately 2 ms. Results indicate that the proposed CNN method can contribute to a quick and accurate relative location prediction in CT scan images, which can improve efficiency of the medical picture archiving and communication system in the future. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Short-Term Forecasting of Loads and Wind Power for Latvian Power System: Accuracy and Capacity of the Developed Tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Radziukynas, V.; Klementavičius, A.

2016-04-01

The paper analyses the performance results of the recently developed short-term forecasting suit for the Latvian power system. The system load and wind power are forecasted using ANN and ARIMA models, respectively, and the forecasting accuracy is evaluated in terms of errors, mean absolute errors and mean absolute percentage errors. The investigation of influence of additional input variables on load forecasting errors is performed. The interplay of hourly loads and wind power forecasting errors is also evaluated for the Latvian power system with historical loads (the year 2011) and planned wind power capacities (the year 2023).

IMPROVEMENT OF SMVGEAR II ON VECTOR AND SCALAR MACHINES THROUGH ABSOLUTE ERROR TOLERANCE CONTROL (R823186)

EPA Science Inventory

The computer speed of SMVGEAR II was improved markedly on scalar and vector machines with relatively little loss in accuracy. The improvement was due to a method of frequently recalculating the absolute error tolerance instead of keeping it constant for a given set of chemistry. ...

Application of RBFN network and GM (1, 1) for groundwater level simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zijun; Yang, Qingchun; Wang, Luchen; Martín, Jordi Delgado

2017-10-01

Groundwater is a prominent resource of drinking and domestic water in the world. In this context, a feasible water resources management plan necessitates acceptable predictions of groundwater table depth fluctuations, which can help ensure the sustainable use of a watershed's aquifers for urban and rural water supply. Due to the difficulties of identifying non-linear model structure and estimating the associated parameters, in this study radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) and GM (1, 1) models are used for the prediction of monthly groundwater level fluctuations in the city of Longyan, Fujian Province (South China). The monthly groundwater level data monitored from January 2003 to December 2011 are used in both models. The error criteria are estimated using the coefficient of determination ( R 2), mean absolute error (E) and root mean squared error (RMSE). The results show that both the models can forecast the groundwater level with fairly high accuracy, but the RBFN network model can be a promising tool to simulate and forecast groundwater level since it has a relatively smaller RMSE and MAE.

Clinical value of CT-based preoperative software assisted lung lobe volumetry for predicting postoperative pulmonary function after lung surgery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wormanns, Dag; Beyer, Florian; Hoffknecht, Petra; Dicken, Volker; Kuhnigk, Jan-Martin; Lange, Tobias; Thomas, Michael; Heindel, Walter

2005-04-01

This study was aimed to evaluate a morphology-based approach for prediction of postoperative forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) after lung resection from preoperative CT scans. Fifteen Patients with surgically treated (lobectomy or pneumonectomy) bronchogenic carcinoma were enrolled in the study. A preoperative chest CT and pulmonary function tests before and after surgery were performed. CT scans were analyzed by prototype software: automated segmentation and volumetry of lung lobes was performed with minimal user interaction. Determined volumes of different lung lobes were used to predict postoperative FEV1 as percentage of the preoperative values. Predicted FEV1 values were compared to the observed postoperative values as standard of reference. Patients underwent lobectomy in twelve cases (6 upper lobes; 1 middle lobe; 5 lower lobes; 6 right side; 6 left side) and pneumonectomy in three cases. Automated calculation of predicted postoperative lung function was successful in all cases. Predicted FEV1 ranged from 54% to 95% (mean 75% +/- 11%) of the preoperative values. Two cases with obviously erroneous LFT were excluded from analysis. Mean error of predicted FEV1 was 20 +/- 160 ml, indicating absence of systematic error; mean absolute error was 7.4 +/- 3.3% respective 137 +/- 77 ml/s. The 200 ml reproducibility criterion for FEV1 was met in 11 of 13 cases (85%). In conclusion, software-assisted prediction of postoperative lung function yielded a clinically acceptable agreement with the observed postoperative values. This method might add useful information for evaluation of functional operability of patients with lung cancer.

3D measurement using combined Gray code and dual-frequency phase-shifting approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Shuang; Zhang, Jing; Yu, Xiaoyang; Sun, Xiaoming; Wu, Haibin; Liu, Xin

2018-04-01

The combined Gray code and phase-shifting approach is a commonly used 3D measurement technique. In this technique, an error that equals integer multiples of the phase-shifted fringe period, i.e. period jump error, often exists in the absolute analog code, which can lead to gross measurement errors. To overcome this problem, the present paper proposes 3D measurement using a combined Gray code and dual-frequency phase-shifting approach. Based on 3D measurement using the combined Gray code and phase-shifting approach, one set of low-frequency phase-shifted fringe patterns with an odd-numbered multiple of the original phase-shifted fringe period is added. Thus, the absolute analog code measured value can be obtained by the combined Gray code and phase-shifting approach, and the low-frequency absolute analog code measured value can also be obtained by adding low-frequency phase-shifted fringe patterns. Then, the corrected absolute analog code measured value can be obtained by correcting the former by the latter, and the period jump errors can be eliminated, resulting in reliable analog code unwrapping. For the proposed approach, we established its measurement model, analyzed its measurement principle, expounded the mechanism of eliminating period jump errors by error analysis, and determined its applicable conditions. Theoretical analysis and experimental results show that the proposed approach can effectively eliminate period jump errors, reliably perform analog code unwrapping, and improve the measurement accuracy.

A Simulation-Based Study on the Comparison of Statistical and Time Series Forecasting Methods for Early Detection of Infectious Disease Outbreaks.

PubMed

Yang, Eunjoo; Park, Hyun Woo; Choi, Yeon Hwa; Kim, Jusim; Munkhdalai, Lkhagvadorj; Musa, Ibrahim; Ryu, Keun Ho

2018-05-11

Early detection of infectious disease outbreaks is one of the important and significant issues in syndromic surveillance systems. It helps to provide a rapid epidemiological response and reduce morbidity and mortality. In order to upgrade the current system at the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC), a comparative study of state-of-the-art techniques is required. We compared four different temporal outbreak detection algorithms: the CUmulative SUM (CUSUM), the Early Aberration Reporting System (EARS), the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), and the Holt-Winters algorithm. The comparison was performed based on not only 42 different time series generated taking into account trends, seasonality, and randomly occurring outbreaks, but also real-world daily and weekly data related to diarrhea infection. The algorithms were evaluated using different metrics. These were namely, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), F1 score, symmetric mean absolute percent error (sMAPE), root-mean-square error (RMSE), and mean absolute deviation (MAD). Although the comparison results showed better performance for the EARS C3 method with respect to the other algorithms, despite the characteristics of the underlying time series data, Holt⁻Winters showed better performance when the baseline frequency and the dispersion parameter values were both less than 1.5 and 2, respectively.

Error Budget for a Calibration Demonstration System for the Reflected Solar Instrument for the Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thome, Kurtis; McCorkel, Joel; McAndrew, Brendan

2013-01-01

A goal of the Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) mission is to observe highaccuracy, long-term climate change trends over decadal time scales. The key to such a goal is to improving the accuracy of SI traceable absolute calibration across infrared and reflected solar wavelengths allowing climate change to be separated from the limit of natural variability. The advances required to reach on-orbit absolute accuracy to allow climate change observations to survive data gaps exist at NIST in the laboratory, but still need demonstration that the advances can move successfully from to NASA and/or instrument vendor capabilities for spaceborne instruments. The current work describes the radiometric calibration error budget for the Solar, Lunar for Absolute Reflectance Imaging Spectroradiometer (SOLARIS) which is the calibration demonstration system (CDS) for the reflected solar portion of CLARREO. The goal of the CDS is to allow the testing and evaluation of calibration approaches, alternate design and/or implementation approaches and components for the CLARREO mission. SOLARIS also provides a test-bed for detector technologies, non-linearity determination and uncertainties, and application of future technology developments and suggested spacecraft instrument design modifications. The resulting SI-traceable error budget for reflectance retrieval using solar irradiance as a reference and methods for laboratory-based, absolute calibration suitable for climatequality data collections is given. Key components in the error budget are geometry differences between the solar and earth views, knowledge of attenuator behavior when viewing the sun, and sensor behavior such as detector linearity and noise behavior. Methods for demonstrating this error budget are also presented.

QSAR modeling for predicting mutagenic toxicity of diverse chemicals for regulatory purposes.

PubMed

Basant, Nikita; Gupta, Shikha

2017-06-01

The safety assessment process of chemicals requires information on their mutagenic potential. The experimental determination of mutagenicity of a large number of chemicals is tedious and time and cost intensive, thus compelling for alternative methods. We have established local and global QSAR models for discriminating low and high mutagenic compounds and predicting their mutagenic activity in a quantitative manner in Salmonella typhimurium (TA) bacterial strains (TA98 and TA100). The decision treeboost (DTB)-based classification QSAR models discriminated among two categories with accuracies of >96% and the regression QSAR models precisely predicted the mutagenic activity of diverse chemicals yielding high correlations (R 2 ) between the experimental and model-predicted values in the respective training (>0.96) and test (>0.94) sets. The test set root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) values emphasized the usefulness of the developed models for predicting new compounds. Relevant structural features of diverse chemicals that were responsible and influence the mutagenic activity were identified. The applicability domains of the developed models were defined. The developed models can be used as tools for screening new chemicals for their mutagenicity assessment for regulatory purpose.

Predicting online ratings based on the opinion spreading process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Xing-Sheng; Zhou, Ming-Yang; Zhuo, Zhao; Fu, Zhong-Qian; Liu, Jian-Guo

2015-10-01

Predicting users' online ratings is always a challenge issue and has drawn lots of attention. In this paper, we present a rating prediction method by combining the user opinion spreading process with the collaborative filtering algorithm, where user similarity is defined by measuring the amount of opinion a user transfers to another based on the primitive user-item rating matrix. The proposed method could produce a more precise rating prediction for each unrated user-item pair. In addition, we introduce a tunable parameter λ to regulate the preferential diffusion relevant to the degree of both opinion sender and receiver. The numerical results for Movielens and Netflix data sets show that this algorithm has a better accuracy than the standard user-based collaborative filtering algorithm using Cosine and Pearson correlation without increasing computational complexity. By tuning λ, our method could further boost the prediction accuracy when using Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) as measurements. In the optimal cases, on Movielens and Netflix data sets, the corresponding algorithmic accuracy (MAE and RMSE) are improved 11.26% and 8.84%, 13.49% and 10.52% compared to the item average method, respectively.

Proprioceptive deficit in individuals with unilateral tearing of the anterior cruciate ligament after active evaluation of the sense of joint position.

PubMed

Cossich, Victor; Mallrich, Frédéric; Titonelli, Victor; de Sousa, Eduardo Branco; Velasques, Bruna; Salles, José Inácio

2014-01-01

To ascertain whether the proprioceptive deficit in the sense of joint position continues to be present when patients with a limb presenting a deficient anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) are assessed by testing their active reproduction of joint position, in comparison with the contralateral limb. Twenty patients with unilateral ACL tearing participated in the study. Their active reproduction of joint position in the limb with the deficient ACL and in the healthy contralateral limb was tested. Meta-positions of 20% and 50% of the maximum joint range of motion were used. Proprioceptive performance was determined through the values of the absolute error, variable error and constant error. Significant differences in absolute error were found at both of the positions evaluated, and in constant error at 50% of the maximum joint range of motion. When evaluated in terms of absolute error, the proprioceptive deficit continues to be present even when an active evaluation of the sense of joint position is made. Consequently, this sense involves activity of both intramuscular and tendon receptors.

Incorporating Measurement Error from Modeled Air Pollution Exposures into Epidemiological Analyses.

PubMed

Samoli, Evangelia; Butland, Barbara K

2017-12-01

Outdoor air pollution exposures used in epidemiological studies are commonly predicted from spatiotemporal models incorporating limited measurements, temporal factors, geographic information system variables, and/or satellite data. Measurement error in these exposure estimates leads to imprecise estimation of health effects and their standard errors. We reviewed methods for measurement error correction that have been applied in epidemiological studies that use model-derived air pollution data. We identified seven cohort studies and one panel study that have employed measurement error correction methods. These methods included regression calibration, risk set regression calibration, regression calibration with instrumental variables, the simulation extrapolation approach (SIMEX), and methods under the non-parametric or parameter bootstrap. Corrections resulted in small increases in the absolute magnitude of the health effect estimate and its standard error under most scenarios. Limited application of measurement error correction methods in air pollution studies may be attributed to the absence of exposure validation data and the methodological complexity of the proposed methods. Future epidemiological studies should consider in their design phase the requirements for the measurement error correction method to be later applied, while methodological advances are needed under the multi-pollutants setting.

Forecasting influenza in Hong Kong with Google search queries and statistical model fusion

PubMed Central

Ramirez Ramirez, L. Leticia; Nezafati, Kusha; Zhang, Qingpeng; Tsui, Kwok-Leung

2017-01-01

Background The objective of this study is to investigate predictive utility of online social media and web search queries, particularly, Google search data, to forecast new cases of influenza-like-illness (ILI) in general outpatient clinics (GOPC) in Hong Kong. To mitigate the impact of sensitivity to self-excitement (i.e., fickle media interest) and other artifacts of online social media data, in our approach we fuse multiple offline and online data sources. Methods Four individual models: generalized linear model (GLM), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), and deep learning (DL) with Feedforward Neural Networks (FNN) are employed to forecast ILI-GOPC both one week and two weeks in advance. The covariates include Google search queries, meteorological data, and previously recorded offline ILI. To our knowledge, this is the first study that introduces deep learning methodology into surveillance of infectious diseases and investigates its predictive utility. Furthermore, to exploit the strength from each individual forecasting models, we use statistical model fusion, using Bayesian model averaging (BMA), which allows a systematic integration of multiple forecast scenarios. For each model, an adaptive approach is used to capture the recent relationship between ILI and covariates. Results DL with FNN appears to deliver the most competitive predictive performance among the four considered individual models. Combing all four models in a comprehensive BMA framework allows to further improve such predictive evaluation metrics as root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute predictive error (MAPE). Nevertheless, DL with FNN remains the preferred method for predicting locations of influenza peaks. Conclusions The proposed approach can be viewed a feasible alternative to forecast ILI in Hong Kong or other countries where ILI has no constant seasonal trend and influenza data resources are limited. The proposed methodology is easily tractable and computationally efficient. PMID:28464015

Paleotemperature reconstruction from mammalian phosphate δ18O records - an alternative view on data processing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skrzypek, Grzegorz; Sadler, Rohan; Wiśniewski, Andrzej

2017-04-01

The stable oxygen isotope composition of phosphates (δ18O) extracted from mammalian bone and teeth material is commonly used as a proxy for paleotemperature. Historically, several different analytical and statistical procedures for determining air paleotemperatures from the measured δ18O of phosphates have been applied. This inconsistency in both stable isotope data processing and the application of statistical procedures has led to large and unwanted differences between calculated results. This study presents the uncertainty associated with two of the most commonly used regression methods: least squares inverted fit and transposed fit. We assessed the performance of these methods by designing and applying calculation experiments to multiple real-life data sets, calculating in reverse temperatures, and comparing them with true recorded values. Our calculations clearly show that the mean absolute errors are always substantially higher for the inverted fit (a causal model), with the transposed fit (a predictive model) returning mean values closer to the measured values (Skrzypek et al. 2015). The predictive models always performed better than causal models, with 12-65% lower mean absolute errors. Moreover, the least-squares regression (LSM) model is more appropriate than Reduced Major Axis (RMA) regression for calculating the environmental water stable oxygen isotope composition from phosphate signatures, as well as for calculating air temperature from the δ18O value of environmental water. The transposed fit introduces a lower overall error than the inverted fit for both the δ18O of environmental water and Tair calculations; therefore, the predictive models are more statistically efficient than the causal models in this instance. The direct comparison of paleotemperature results from different laboratories and studies may only be achieved if a single method of calculation is applied. Reference Skrzypek G., Sadler R., Wiśniewski A., 2016. Reassessment of recommendations for processing mammal phosphate δ18O data for paleotemperature reconstruction. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 446, 162-167.

The cerebellum predicts the temporal consequences of observed motor acts.

PubMed

Avanzino, Laura; Bove, Marco; Pelosin, Elisa; Ogliastro, Carla; Lagravinese, Giovanna; Martino, Davide

2015-01-01

It is increasingly clear that we extract patterns of temporal regularity between events to optimize information processing. The ability to extract temporal patterns and regularity of events is referred as temporal expectation. Temporal expectation activates the same cerebral network usually engaged in action selection, comprising cerebellum. However, it is unclear whether the cerebellum is directly involved in temporal expectation, when timing information is processed to make predictions on the outcome of a motor act. Healthy volunteers received one session of either active (inhibitory, 1 Hz) or sham repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation covering the right lateral cerebellum prior the execution of a temporal expectation task. Subjects were asked to predict the end of a visually perceived human body motion (right hand handwriting) and of an inanimate object motion (a moving circle reaching a target). Videos representing movements were shown in full; the actual tasks consisted of watching the same videos, but interrupted after a variable interval from its onset by a dark interval of variable duration. During the 'dark' interval, subjects were asked to indicate when the movement represented in the video reached its end by clicking on the spacebar of the keyboard. Performance on the timing task was analyzed measuring the absolute value of timing error, the coefficient of variability and the percentage of anticipation responses. The active group exhibited greater absolute timing error compared with the sham group only in the human body motion task. Our findings suggest that the cerebellum is engaged in cognitive and perceptual domains that are strictly connected to motor control.

Modeling and Prediction of Solvent Effect on Human Skin Permeability using Support Vector Regression and Random Forest.

PubMed

Baba, Hiromi; Takahara, Jun-ichi; Yamashita, Fumiyoshi; Hashida, Mitsuru

2015-11-01

The solvent effect on skin permeability is important for assessing the effectiveness and toxicological risk of new dermatological formulations in pharmaceuticals and cosmetics development. The solvent effect occurs by diverse mechanisms, which could be elucidated by efficient and reliable prediction models. However, such prediction models have been hampered by the small variety of permeants and mixture components archived in databases and by low predictive performance. Here, we propose a solution to both problems. We first compiled a novel large database of 412 samples from 261 structurally diverse permeants and 31 solvents reported in the literature. The data were carefully screened to ensure their collection under consistent experimental conditions. To construct a high-performance predictive model, we then applied support vector regression (SVR) and random forest (RF) with greedy stepwise descriptor selection to our database. The models were internally and externally validated. The SVR achieved higher performance statistics than RF. The (externally validated) determination coefficient, root mean square error, and mean absolute error of SVR were 0.899, 0.351, and 0.268, respectively. Moreover, because all descriptors are fully computational, our method can predict as-yet unsynthesized compounds. Our high-performance prediction model offers an attractive alternative to permeability experiments for pharmaceutical and cosmetic candidate screening and optimizing skin-permeable topical formulations.

Verification of different forecasts of Hungarian Meteorological Service

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feher, B.

2009-09-01

In this paper I show the results of the forecasts made by the Hungarian Meteorological Service. I focus on the general short- and medium-range forecasts, which contains cloudiness, precipitation, wind speed and temperature for six regions of Hungary. I would like to show the results of some special forecasts as well, such as precipitation predictions which are made for the catchment area of Danube and Tisza rivers, and daily mean temperature predictions used by Hungarian energy companies. The product received by the user is made by the general forecaster, but these predictions are based on the ALADIN and ECMWF outputs. Because of these, the product of the forecaster and the models were also verified. Method like this is able to show us, which weather elements are more difficult to forecast or which regions have higher errors. During the verification procedure the basic errors (mean error, mean absolute error) are calculated. Precipitation amount is classified into five categories, and scores like POD, TS, PC,…etc. were defined by contingency table determined by these categories. The procedure runs fully automatically, all the things forecasters have to do is to print the daily result each morning. Beside the daily result, verification is also made for longer periods like week, month or year. Analyzing the results of longer periods we can say that the best predictions are made for the first few days, and precipitation forecasts are less good for mountainous areas, even, the scores of the forecasters sometimes are higher than the errors of the models. Since forecaster receive results next day, it can helps him/her to reduce mistakes and learn the weakness of the models. This paper contains the verification scores, their trends, the method by which these scores are calculated, and some case studies on worse forecasts.

Verification of real-time WSA-ENLIL+Cone simulations of CME arrival-time at the CCMC/SWRC from 2010-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wold, A. M.; Mays, M. L.; Taktakishvili, A.; Odstrcil, D.; MacNeice, P. J.; Jian, L. K.

2017-12-01

The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)-ENLIL+Cone model is used extensively in space weather operations world-wide to model CME propagation. As such, it is important to assess its performance. We present validation results of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model installed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) and executed in real-time by the CCMC/Space Weather Research Center (SWRC). CCMC/SWRC uses the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model to predict CME arrivals at NASA missions throughout the inner heliosphere. In this work we compare model predicted CME arrival-times to in-situ ICME leading edge measurements near Earth, STEREO-A and STEREO-B for simulations completed between March 2010-December 2016 (over 1,800 CMEs). We report hit, miss, false alarm, and correct rejection statistics for all three spacecraft. For all predicted CME arrivals, the hit rate is 0.5, and the false alarm rate is 0.1. For the 273 events where the CME was predicted to arrive at Earth, STEREO-A, or STEREO-B and we observed an arrival (hit), the mean absolute arrival-time prediction error was 10.4 ± 0.9 hours, with a tendency to early prediction error of -4.0 hours. We show the dependence of the arrival-time error on CME input parameters. We also explore the impact of the multi-spacecraft observations used to initialize the model CME inputs by comparing model verification results before and after the STEREO-B communication loss (since September 2014) and STEREO-A side-lobe operations (August 2014-December 2015). There is an increase of 1.7 hours in the CME arrival time error during single, or limited two-viewpoint periods, compared to the three-spacecraft viewpoint period. This trend would apply to a future space weather mission at L5 or L4 as another coronagraph viewpoint to reduce CME arrival time errors compared to a single L1 viewpoint.

Absolute calibration of optical flats

DOEpatents

Sommargren, Gary E.

2005-04-05

The invention uses the phase shifting diffraction interferometer (PSDI) to provide a true point-by-point measurement of absolute flatness over the surface of optical flats. Beams exiting the fiber optics in a PSDI have perfect spherical wavefronts. The measurement beam is reflected from the optical flat and passed through an auxiliary optic to then be combined with the reference beam on a CCD. The combined beams include phase errors due to both the optic under test and the auxiliary optic. Standard phase extraction algorithms are used to calculate this combined phase error. The optical flat is then removed from the system and the measurement fiber is moved to recombine the two beams. The newly combined beams include only the phase errors due to the auxiliary optic. When the second phase measurement is subtracted from the first phase measurement, the absolute phase error of the optical flat is obtained.

SU-E-QI-21: Iodinated Contrast Agent Time Course In Human Brain Metastasis: A Study For Stereotactic Synchrotron Radiotherapy Clinical Trials

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Obeid, L; Esteve, F; Adam, J

2014-06-15

Purpose: Synchrotron stereotactic radiotherapy (SSRT) is an innovative treatment combining the selective accumulation of heavy elements in tumors with stereotactic irradiations using monochromatic medium energy x-rays from a synchrotron source. Phase I/II clinical trials on brain metastasis are underway using venous infusion of iodinated contrast agents. The radiation dose enhancement depends on the amount of iodine in the tumor and its time course. In the present study, the reproducibility of iodine concentrations between the CT planning scan day (Day 0) and the treatment day (Day 10) was assessed in order to predict dose errors. Methods: For each of days 0more » and 10, three patients received a biphasic intravenous injection of iodinated contrast agent (40 ml, 4 ml/s, followed by 160 ml, 0.5 ml/s) in order to ensure stable intra-tumoral amounts of iodine during the treatment. Two volumetric CT scans (before and after iodine injection) and a multi-slice dynamic CT of the brain were performed using conventional radiotherapy CT (Day 0) or quantitative synchrotron radiation CT (Day 10). A 3D rigid registration was processed between images. The absolute and relative differences of absolute iodine concentrations and their corresponding dose errors were evaluated in the GTV and PTV used for treatment planning. Results: The differences in iodine concentrations remained within the standard deviation limits. The 3D absolute differences followed a normal distribution centered at zero mg/ml with a variance (∼1 mg/ml) which is related to the image noise. Conclusion: The results suggest that dose errors depend only on the image noise. This study shows that stable amounts of iodine are achievable in brain metastasis for SSRT treatment in a 10 days interval.« less

A Leapfrog Navigation System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Opshaug, Guttorm Ringstad

There are times and places where conventional navigation systems, such as the Global Positioning System (GPS), are unavailable due to anything from temporary signal occultations to lack of navigation system infrastructure altogether. The goal of the Leapfrog Navigation System (LNS) is to provide localized positioning services for such cases. The concept behind leapfrog navigation is to advance a group of navigation units teamwise into an area of interest. In a practical 2-D case, leapfrogging assumes known initial positions of at least two currently stationary navigation units. Two or more mobile units can then start to advance into the area of interest. The positions of the mobiles are constantly being calculated based on cross-range distance measurements to the stationary units, as well as cross-ranges among the mobiles themselves. At some point the mobile units stop, and the stationary units are released to move. This second team of units (now mobile) can then overtake the first team (now stationary) and travel even further towards the common goal of the group. Since there always is one stationary team, the position of any unit can be referenced back to the initial positions. Thus, LNS provides absolute positioning. I developed navigation algorithms needed to solve leapfrog positions based on cross-range measurements. I used statistical tools to predict how position errors would grow as a function of navigation unit geometry, cross-range measurement accuracy and previous position errors. Using this knowledge I predicted that a 4-unit Leapfrog Navigation System using 100 m baselines and 200 m leap distances could travel almost 15 km before accumulating absolute position errors of 10 m (1sigma). Finally, I built a prototype leapfrog navigation system using 4 GPS transceiver ranging units. I placed the 4 units in the vertices a 10m x 10m square, and leapfrogged the group 20 meters forwards, and then back again (40 m total travel). Average horizontal RMS position errors never exceeded 16 cm during these field tests.

Relative and Absolute Error Control in a Finite-Difference Method Solution of Poisson's Equation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Prentice, J. S. C.

2012-01-01

An algorithm for error control (absolute and relative) in the five-point finite-difference method applied to Poisson's equation is described. The algorithm is based on discretization of the domain of the problem by means of three rectilinear grids, each of different resolution. We discuss some hardware limitations associated with the algorithm,…

Assessing Suturing Skills in a Self-Guided Learning Setting: Absolute Symmetry Error

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brydges, Ryan; Carnahan, Heather; Dubrowski, Adam

2009-01-01

Directed self-guidance, whereby trainees independently practice a skill-set in a structured setting, may be an effective technique for novice training. Currently, however, most evaluation methods require an expert to be present during practice. The study aim was to determine if absolute symmetry error, a clinically important measure that can be…

A hybrid SVM-FFA method for prediction of monthly mean global solar radiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shamshirband, Shahaboddin; Mohammadi, Kasra; Tong, Chong Wen; Zamani, Mazdak; Motamedi, Shervin; Ch, Sudheer

2016-07-01

In this study, a hybrid support vector machine-firefly optimization algorithm (SVM-FFA) model is proposed to estimate monthly mean horizontal global solar radiation (HGSR). The merit of SVM-FFA is assessed statistically by comparing its performance with three previously used approaches. Using each approach and long-term measured HGSR, three models are calibrated by considering different sets of meteorological parameters measured for Bandar Abbass situated in Iran. It is found that the model (3) utilizing the combination of relative sunshine duration, difference between maximum and minimum temperatures, relative humidity, water vapor pressure, average temperature, and extraterrestrial solar radiation shows superior performance based upon all approaches. Moreover, the extraterrestrial radiation is introduced as a significant parameter to accurately estimate the global solar radiation. The survey results reveal that the developed SVM-FFA approach is greatly capable to provide favorable predictions with significantly higher precision than other examined techniques. For the SVM-FFA (3), the statistical indicators of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), root mean square error (RMSE), relative root mean square error (RRMSE), and coefficient of determination ( R 2) are 3.3252 %, 0.1859 kWh/m2, 3.7350 %, and 0.9737, respectively which according to the RRMSE has an excellent performance. As a more evaluation of SVM-FFA (3), the ratio of estimated to measured values is computed and found that 47 out of 48 months considered as testing data fall between 0.90 and 1.10. Also, by performing a further verification, it is concluded that SVM-FFA (3) offers absolute superiority over the empirical models using relatively similar input parameters. In a nutshell, the hybrid SVM-FFA approach would be considered highly efficient to estimate the HGSR.

Development of a transformation model to derive general population-based utility: Mapping the pruritus-visual analog scale (VAS) to the EQ-5D utility.

PubMed

Park, Sun-Young; Park, Eun-Ja; Suh, Hae Sun; Ha, Dongmun; Lee, Eui-Kyung

2017-08-01

Although nonpreference-based disease-specific measures are widely used in clinical studies, they cannot generate utilities for economic evaluation. A solution to this problem is to estimate utilities from disease-specific instruments using the mapping function. This study aimed to develop a transformation model for mapping the pruritus-visual analog scale (VAS) to the EuroQol 5-Dimension 3-Level (EQ-5D-3L) utility index in pruritus. A cross-sectional survey was conducted with a sample (n = 268) drawn from the general population of South Korea. Data were randomly divided into 2 groups, one for estimating and the other for validating mapping models. To select the best model, we developed and compared 3 separate models using demographic information and the pruritus-VAS as independent variables. The predictive performance was assessed using the mean absolute deviation and root mean square error in a separate dataset. Among the 3 models, model 2 using age, age squared, sex, and the pruritus-VAS as independent variables had the best performance based on the goodness of fit and model simplicity, with a log likelihood of 187.13. The 3 models had similar precision errors based on mean absolute deviation and root mean square error in the validation dataset. No statistically significant difference was observed between the mean observed and predicted values in all models. In conclusion, model 2 was chosen as the preferred mapping model. Outcomes measured as the pruritus-VAS can be transformed into the EQ-5D-3L utility index using this mapping model, which makes an economic evaluation possible when only pruritus-VAS data are available. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Low-flow traveltime, longitudinal-dispersion, and reaeration characteristics of the Souris River from Lake Darling Dam to J Clark Salyer National Wildlife Refuge, North Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wesolowski, E.A.; Nelson, R.A.

1987-01-01

As part of the Sour is River water-quality assessment, traveltime, longitudinal-dispersion, and reaeration measurements were made during September 1983 on segments of the 186-mile reach of the Sour is River from Lake Darling Dam to the J. Clark Salyer National Wildlife Refuge. The primary objective was to determine traveltime, longitudinal-dispersion, and reaeration coefficients during low flow. Streamflow in the reach ranged from 10.5 to 47.0 cubic feet per second during the measurement period.On the basis of channel and hydraulic characteristics, the 186-mile reach was subdivided into five subreaches that ranged from 18 to 55 river miles in length. Within each subreach, representative test reaches that ranged from 5.0 to 9.1 river miles in length were selected for tracer injection and sample collection. Standard fluorometric techniques were used to measure traveltime and longitudinal dispersion, and a modified tracer technique that used ethylene and propane gas was used to measure reaeration. Mean test-reach velocities ranged from 0.05 to 0.30 foot per second, longitudinal-dispersion coefficients ranged from 4.2 to 61 square feet per second, and reaeration coefficients based on propane ranged from 0.39 to 1.66 per day. Predictive reaeration coefficients obtained from 18 equations (8 semiempirical and 10 empirical) were compared with each measured reaeration coefficient by use of an error-of-estimate analysis. The predictive reaeration coefficients ranged from 0.0008 to 3.4 per day. A semiempirical equation that produced coefficients most similar to the measured coefficients had the smallest absolute error of estimate (0.35). The smallest absolute error of estimate for the empirical equations was 0.41.

A Comparative Study to Assess the Predictability of Different IOL Power Calculation Formulas in Eyes of Short and Long Axial Length.

PubMed

Doshi, Dharmil; Limdi, Purvi; Parekh, Nilesh; Gohil, Neepa

2017-01-01

Accurate Intraocular Lens (IOL) power calculation in cataract surgery is very important for providing postoperative precise vision. Selection of most appropriate formula is difficult in high myopic and hypermetropic patients. To investigate the predictability of different IOL (Intra Ocular Lens) power calculation formulae in eyes with short and long Axial Length (AL) and to find out most accurate IOL power calculation formula in both groups. A prospective study was conducted on 80 consecutive patients who underwent phacoemulsification with monofocal IOL implantation after obtaining an informed and written consent. Preoperative keratometry was done by IOL Master. Axial length and anterior chamber depth was measured using A-scan machine ECHORULE 2 (BIOMEDIX). Patients were divided into two groups based on AL. (40 in each group). Group A with AL<22 mm and Group B with AL>24.5 mm. The IOL power calculation in each group was done by Haigis, Hoffer Q, Holladay-I, SRK/T formulae using the software of ECHORULE 2. The actual postoperative Spherical Equivalent (SE), Estimation error (E) and Absolute Error (AE) were calculated at one and half months and were used in data analysis. The predictive accuracy of each formula in each group was analyzed by comparing the Absolute Error (AE). The Kruskal Wallis test was used to compare differences in the (AE) of the formulae. A statistically significant difference was defined as p-value<0.05. In Group A, Hoffer Q, Holladay 1 and SRK/T formulae were equally accurate in predicting the postoperative refraction after cataract surgery (IOL power calculation) in eyes with AL less than 22.0 mm and accuracy of these three formulae was significantly higher than Haigis formula. Whereas in Group B, Hoffer Q, Holladay 1, SRK/T and Haigis formulae were equally accurate in predicting the postoperative refraction after cataract surgery (IOL power calculation) in eyes with AL more than 24.5 mm. Hoffer Q, Holladay 1 and SRK/T formulae were showing significantly higher accuracy than Haigis formula in predicting the postoperative refraction after cataract surgery (IOL power calculation) in eyes with AL less than 22.0 mm. In eyes with AL more than 24.5 mm Hoffer Q, Holladay 1, SRK/T and Haigis formulae were equally accurate.

A Comparative Study to Assess the Predictability of Different IOL Power Calculation Formulas in Eyes of Short and Long Axial Length

PubMed Central

Limdi, Purvi; Parekh, Nilesh; Gohil, Neepa

2017-01-01

Introduction Accurate Intraocular Lens (IOL) power calculation in cataract surgery is very important for providing postoperative precise vision. Selection of most appropriate formula is difficult in high myopic and hypermetropic patients. Aim To investigate the predictability of different IOL (Intra Ocular Lens) power calculation formulae in eyes with short and long Axial Length (AL) and to find out most accurate IOL power calculation formula in both groups. Materials and Methods A prospective study was conducted on 80 consecutive patients who underwent phacoemulsification with monofocal IOL implantation after obtaining an informed and written consent. Preoperative keratometry was done by IOL Master. Axial length and anterior chamber depth was measured using A-scan machine ECHORULE 2 (BIOMEDIX). Patients were divided into two groups based on AL. (40 in each group). Group A with AL<22 mm and Group B with AL>24.5 mm. The IOL power calculation in each group was done by Haigis, Hoffer Q, Holladay-I, SRK/T formulae using the software of ECHORULE 2. The actual postoperative Spherical Equivalent (SE), Estimation error (E) and Absolute Error (AE) were calculated at one and half months and were used in data analysis. The predictive accuracy of each formula in each group was analyzed by comparing the Absolute Error (AE). The Kruskal Wallis test was used to compare differences in the (AE) of the formulae. A statistically significant difference was defined as p-value<0.05. Results In Group A, Hoffer Q, Holladay 1 and SRK/T formulae were equally accurate in predicting the postoperative refraction after cataract surgery (IOL power calculation) in eyes with AL less than 22.0 mm and accuracy of these three formulae was significantly higher than Haigis formula. Whereas in Group B, Hoffer Q, Holladay 1, SRK/T and Haigis formulae were equally accurate in predicting the postoperative refraction after cataract surgery (IOL power calculation) in eyes with AL more than 24.5 mm. Conclusion Hoffer Q, Holladay 1 and SRK/T formulae were showing significantly higher accuracy than Haigis formula in predicting the postoperative refraction after cataract surgery (IOL power calculation) in eyes with AL less than 22.0 mm. In eyes with AL more than 24.5 mm Hoffer Q, Holladay 1, SRK/T and Haigis formulae were equally accurate. PMID:28273986

A data-driven SVR model for long-term runoff prediction and uncertainty analysis based on the Bayesian framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Zhongmin; Li, Yujie; Hu, Yiming; Li, Binquan; Wang, Jun

2017-06-01

Accurate and reliable long-term forecasting plays an important role in water resources management and utilization. In this paper, a hybrid model called SVR-HUP is presented to predict long-term runoff and quantify the prediction uncertainty. The model is created based on three steps. First, appropriate predictors are selected according to the correlations between meteorological factors and runoff. Second, a support vector regression (SVR) model is structured and optimized based on the LibSVM toolbox and a genetic algorithm. Finally, using forecasted and observed runoff, a hydrologic uncertainty processor (HUP) based on a Bayesian framework is used to estimate the posterior probability distribution of the simulated values, and the associated uncertainty of prediction was quantitatively analyzed. Six precision evaluation indexes, including the correlation coefficient (CC), relative root mean square error (RRMSE), relative error (RE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and qualification rate (QR), are used to measure the prediction accuracy. As a case study, the proposed approach is applied in the Han River basin, South Central China. Three types of SVR models are established to forecast the monthly, flood season and annual runoff volumes. The results indicate that SVR yields satisfactory accuracy and reliability at all three scales. In addition, the results suggest that the HUP cannot only quantify the uncertainty of prediction based on a confidence interval but also provide a more accurate single value prediction than the initial SVR forecasting result. Thus, the SVR-HUP model provides an alternative method for long-term runoff forecasting.

Generation of fluoroscopic 3D images with a respiratory motion model based on an external surrogate signal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurwitz, Martina; Williams, Christopher L.; Mishra, Pankaj; Rottmann, Joerg; Dhou, Salam; Wagar, Matthew; Mannarino, Edward G.; Mak, Raymond H.; Lewis, John H.

2015-01-01

Respiratory motion during radiotherapy can cause uncertainties in definition of the target volume and in estimation of the dose delivered to the target and healthy tissue. In this paper, we generate volumetric images of the internal patient anatomy during treatment using only the motion of a surrogate signal. Pre-treatment four-dimensional CT imaging is used to create a patient-specific model correlating internal respiratory motion with the trajectory of an external surrogate placed on the chest. The performance of this model is assessed with digital and physical phantoms reproducing measured irregular patient breathing patterns. Ten patient breathing patterns are incorporated in a digital phantom. For each patient breathing pattern, the model is used to generate images over the course of thirty seconds. The tumor position predicted by the model is compared to ground truth information from the digital phantom. Over the ten patient breathing patterns, the average absolute error in the tumor centroid position predicted by the motion model is 1.4 mm. The corresponding error for one patient breathing pattern implemented in an anthropomorphic physical phantom was 0.6 mm. The global voxel intensity error was used to compare the full image to the ground truth and demonstrates good agreement between predicted and true images. The model also generates accurate predictions for breathing patterns with irregular phases or amplitudes.

Development of the ClearSky smoke dispersion forecast system for agricultural field burning in the Pacific Northwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jain, Rahul; Vaughan, Joseph; Heitkamp, Kyle; Ramos, Charleston; Claiborn, Candis; Schreuder, Maarten; Schaaf, Mark; Lamb, Brian

The post-harvest burning of agricultural fields is commonly used to dispose of crop residue and provide other desired services such as pest control. Despite careful regulation of burning, smoke plumes from field burning in the Pacific Northwest commonly degrade air quality, particularly for rural populations. In this paper, ClearSky, a numerical smoke dispersion forecast system for agricultural field burning that was developed to support smoke management in the Inland Pacific Northwest, is described. ClearSky began operation during the summer through fall burn season of 2002 and continues to the present. ClearSky utilizes Mesoscale Meteorological Model version 5 (MM5v3) forecasts from the University of Washington, data on agricultural fields, a web-based user interface for defining burn scenarios, the Lagrangian CALPUFF dispersion model and web-served animations of plume forecasts. The ClearSky system employs a unique hybrid source configuration, which treats the flaming portion of a field as a buoyant line source and the smoldering portion of the field as a buoyant area source. Limited field observations show that this hybrid approach yields reasonable plume rise estimates using source parameters derived from recent field burning emission field studies. The performance of this modeling system was evaluated for 2003 by comparing forecast meteorology against meteorological observations, and comparing model-predicted hourly averaged PM 2.5 concentrations against observations. Examples from this evaluation illustrate that while the ClearSky system can accurately predict PM 2.5 surface concentrations due to field burning, the overall model performance depends strongly on meteorological forecast error. Statistical evaluation of the meteorological forecast at seven surface stations indicates a strong relationship between topographical complexity near the station and absolute wind direction error with wind direction errors increasing from approximately 20° for sites in open areas to 70° or more for sites in very complex terrain. The analysis also showed some days with good forecast meteorology with absolute mean error in wind direction less than 30° when ClearSky correctly predicted PM 2.5 surface concentrations at receptors affected by field burns. On several other days with similar levels of wind direction error the model did not predict apparent plume impacts. In most of these cases, there were no reported burns in the vicinity of the monitor and, thus, it appeared that other, non-reported burns were responsible for the apparent plume impact at the monitoring site. These cases do not provide information on the performance of the model, but rather indicate that further work is needed to identify all burns and to improve burn reports in an accurate and timely manner. There were also a number of days with wind direction errors exceeding 70° when the forecast system did not correctly predict plume behavior.

Artificial Intelligence Techniques for Predicting and Mapping Daily Pan Evaporation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arunkumar, R.; Jothiprakash, V.; Sharma, Kirty

2017-09-01

In this study, Artificial Intelligence techniques such as Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Model Tree (MT) and Genetic Programming (GP) are used to develop daily pan evaporation time-series (TS) prediction and cause-effect (CE) mapping models. Ten years of observed daily meteorological data such as maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity, sunshine hours, dew point temperature and pan evaporation are used for developing the models. For each technique, several models are developed by changing the number of inputs and other model parameters. The performance of each model is evaluated using standard statistical measures such as Mean Square Error, Mean Absolute Error, Normalized Mean Square Error and correlation coefficient (R). The results showed that daily TS-GP (4) model predicted better with a correlation coefficient of 0.959 than other TS models. Among various CE models, CE-ANN (6-10-1) resulted better than MT and GP models with a correlation coefficient of 0.881. Because of the complex non-linear inter-relationship among various meteorological variables, CE mapping models could not achieve the performance of TS models. From this study, it was found that GP performs better for recognizing single pattern (time series modelling), whereas ANN is better for modelling multiple patterns (cause-effect modelling) in the data.

Mapping the EORTC QLQ-C30 onto the EQ-5D-3L: assessing the external validity of existing mapping algorithms.

PubMed

Doble, Brett; Lorgelly, Paula

2016-04-01

To determine the external validity of existing mapping algorithms for predicting EQ-5D-3L utility values from EORTC QLQ-C30 responses and to establish their generalizability in different types of cancer. A main analysis (pooled) sample of 3560 observations (1727 patients) and two disease severity patient samples (496 and 93 patients) with repeated observations over time from Cancer 2015 were used to validate the existing algorithms. Errors were calculated between observed and predicted EQ-5D-3L utility values using a single pooled sample and ten pooled tumour type-specific samples. Predictive accuracy was assessed using mean absolute error (MAE) and standardized root-mean-squared error (RMSE). The association between observed and predicted EQ-5D utility values and other covariates across the distribution was tested using quantile regression. Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were calculated using observed and predicted values to test responsiveness. Ten 'preferred' mapping algorithms were identified. Two algorithms estimated via response mapping and ordinary least-squares regression using dummy variables performed well on number of validation criteria, including accurate prediction of the best and worst QLQ-C30 health states, predicted values within the EQ-5D tariff range, relatively small MAEs and RMSEs, and minimal differences between estimated QALYs. Comparison of predictive accuracy across ten tumour type-specific samples highlighted that algorithms are relatively insensitive to grouping by tumour type and affected more by differences in disease severity. Two of the 'preferred' mapping algorithms suggest more accurate predictions, but limitations exist. We recommend extensive scenario analyses if mapped utilities are used in cost-utility analyses.

A new method to estimate average hourly global solar radiation on the horizontal surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pandey, Pramod K.; Soupir, Michelle L.

2012-10-01

A new model, Global Solar Radiation on Horizontal Surface (GSRHS), was developed to estimate the average hourly global solar radiation on the horizontal surfaces (Gh). The GSRHS model uses the transmission function (Tf,ij), which was developed to control hourly global solar radiation, for predicting solar radiation. The inputs of the model were: hour of day, day (Julian) of year, optimized parameter values, solar constant (H0), latitude, and longitude of the location of interest. The parameter values used in the model were optimized at a location (Albuquerque, NM), and these values were applied into the model for predicting average hourly global solar radiations at four different locations (Austin, TX; El Paso, TX; Desert Rock, NV; Seattle, WA) of the United States. The model performance was assessed using correlation coefficient (r), Mean Absolute Bias Error (MABE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and coefficient of determinations (R2). The sensitivities of parameter to prediction were estimated. Results show that the model performed very well. The correlation coefficients (r) range from 0.96 to 0.99, while coefficients of determination (R2) range from 0.92 to 0.98. For daily and monthly prediction, error percentages (i.e. MABE and RMSE) were less than 20%. The approach we proposed here can be potentially useful for predicting average hourly global solar radiation on the horizontal surface for different locations, with the use of readily available data (i.e. latitude and longitude of the location) as inputs.

Development of an accident duration prediction model on the Korean Freeway Systems.

PubMed

Chung, Younshik

2010-01-01

Since duration prediction is one of the most important steps in an accident management process, there have been several approaches developed for modeling accident duration. This paper presents a model for the purpose of accident duration prediction based on accurately recorded and large accident dataset from the Korean Freeway Systems. To develop the duration prediction model, this study utilizes the log-logistic accelerated failure time (AFT) metric model and a 2-year accident duration dataset from 2006 to 2007. Specifically, the 2006 dataset is utilized to develop the prediction model and then, the 2007 dataset was employed to test the temporal transferability of the 2006 model. Although the duration prediction model has limitations such as large prediction error due to the individual differences of the accident treatment teams in terms of clearing similar accidents, the results from the 2006 model yielded a reasonable prediction based on the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) scale. Additionally, the results of the statistical test for temporal transferability indicated that the estimated parameters in the duration prediction model are stable over time. Thus, this temporal stability suggests that the model may have potential to be used as a basis for making rational diversion and dispatching decisions in the event of an accident. Ultimately, such information will beneficially help in mitigating traffic congestion due to accidents.

Comparative Analysis of Hybrid Models for Prediction of BP Reactivity to Crossed Legs.

PubMed

Kaur, Gurmanik; Arora, Ajat Shatru; Jain, Vijender Kumar

2017-01-01

Crossing the legs at the knees, during BP measurement, is one of the several physiological stimuli that considerably influence the accuracy of BP measurements. Therefore, it is paramount to develop an appropriate prediction model for interpreting influence of crossed legs on BP. This research work described the use of principal component analysis- (PCA-) fused forward stepwise regression (FSWR), artificial neural network (ANN), adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), and least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM) models for prediction of BP reactivity to crossed legs among the normotensive and hypertensive participants. The evaluation of the performance of the proposed prediction models using appropriate statistical indices showed that the PCA-based LS-SVM (PCA-LS-SVM) model has the highest prediction accuracy with coefficient of determination ( R 2 ) = 93.16%, root mean square error (RMSE) = 0.27, and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) = 5.71 for SBP prediction in normotensive subjects. Furthermore, R 2  = 96.46%, RMSE = 0.19, and MAPE = 1.76 for SBP prediction and R 2  = 95.44%, RMSE = 0.21, and MAPE = 2.78 for DBP prediction in hypertensive subjects using the PCA-LSSVM model. This assessment presents the importance and advantages posed by hybrid computing models for the prediction of variables in biomedical research studies.

Refractive outcomes after multifocal intraocular lens exchange.

PubMed

Kim, Eric J; Sajjad, Ahmar; Montes de Oca, Ildamaris; Koch, Douglas D; Wang, Li; Weikert, Mitchell P; Al-Mohtaseb, Zaina N

2017-06-01

To evaluate the refractive outcomes after multifocal intraocular lens (IOL) exchange. Cullen Eye Institute, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas, USA. Retrospective case series. Patients had multifocal IOL explantation followed by IOL implantation. Outcome measures included type of IOL, surgical indication, corrected distance visual acuity (CDVA), and refractive prediction error. The study comprised 29 patients (35 eyes). The types of IOLs implanted after multifocal IOL explantation included in-the-bag IOLs (74%), iris-sutured IOLs (6%), sulcus-fixated IOLs with optic capture (9%), sulcus-fixated IOLs without optic capture (9%), and anterior chamber IOLs (3%). The surgical indication for exchange included blurred vision (60%), photic phenomena (57%), photophobia (9%), loss of contrast sensitivity (3%), and multiple complaints (29%). The CDVA was 20/40 or better in 94% of eyes before the exchange and 100% of eyes after the exchange (P = .12). The mean refractive prediction error significantly decreased from 0.22 ± 0.81 diopter (D) before the exchange to -0.09 ± 0.53 D after the exchange (P < .05). The median absolute refractive prediction error significantly decreased from 0.43 D before the exchange to 0.23 D after the exchange (P < .05). Multifocal IOL exchange can be performed safely with good visual outcomes using different types of IOLs. A lower refractive prediction error and a higher likelihood of 20/40 or better vision can be achieved with the implantation of the second IOL compared with the original multifocal IOL, regardless of the final IOL position. Copyright © 2017 ASCRS and ESCRS. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Validation of Real-time Modeling of Coronal Mass Ejections Using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone Heliospheric Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romano, M.; Mays, M. L.; Taktakishvili, A.; MacNeice, P. J.; Zheng, Y.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Odstrcil, D.

2013-12-01

Modeling coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is of great interest to the space weather research and forecasting communities. We present recent validation work of real-time CME arrival time predictions at different satellites using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone three-dimensional MHD heliospheric model available at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) and performed by the Space Weather Research Center (SWRC). SWRC is an in-house research-based operations team at the CCMC which provides interplanetary space weather forecasting for NASA's robotic missions and performs real-time model validation. The quality of model operation is evaluated by comparing its output to a measurable parameter of interest such as the CME arrival time and geomagnetic storm strength. The Kp index is calculated from the relation given in Newell et al. (2007), using solar wind parameters predicted by the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model at Earth. The CME arrival time error is defined as the difference between the predicted arrival time and the observed in-situ CME shock arrival time at the ACE, STEREO A, or STEREO B spacecraft. This study includes all real-time WSA-ENLIL+Cone model simulations performed between June 2011-2013 (over 400 runs) at the CCMC/SWRC. We report hit, miss, false alarm, and correct rejection statistics for all three spacecraft. For hits we show the average absolute CME arrival time error, and the dependence of this error on CME input parameters such as speed, width, and direction. We also present the predicted geomagnetic storm strength (using the Kp index) error for Earth-directed CMEs.

Feedforward compensation for novel dynamics depends on force field orientation but is similar for the left and right arms.

PubMed

Reuter, Eva-Maria; Cunnington, Ross; Mattingley, Jason B; Riek, Stephan; Carroll, Timothy J

2016-11-01

There are well-documented differences in the way that people typically perform identical motor tasks with their dominant and the nondominant arms. According to Yadav and Sainburg's (Neuroscience 196: 153-167, 2011) hybrid-control model, this is because the two arms rely to different degrees on impedance control versus predictive control processes. Here, we assessed whether differences in limb control mechanisms influence the rate of feedforward compensation to a novel dynamic environment. Seventy-five healthy, right-handed participants, divided into four subsamples depending on the arm (left, right) and direction of the force field (ipsilateral, contralateral), reached to central targets in velocity-dependent curl force fields. We assessed the rate at which participants developed predictive compensation for the force field using intermittent error-clamp trials and assessed both kinematic errors and initial aiming angles in the field trials. Participants who were exposed to fields that pushed the limb toward ipsilateral space reduced kinematic errors more slowly, built up less predictive field compensation, and relied more on strategic reaiming than those exposed to contralateral fields. However, there were no significant differences in predictive field compensation or kinematic errors between limbs, suggesting that participants using either the left or the right arm could adapt equally well to novel dynamics. It therefore appears that the distinct preferences in control mechanisms typically observed for the dominant and nondominant arms reflect a default mode that is based on habitual functional requirements rather than an absolute limit in capacity to access the controller specialized for the opposite limb. Copyright © 2016 the American Physiological Society.

Feedforward compensation for novel dynamics depends on force field orientation but is similar for the left and right arms

PubMed Central

Cunnington, Ross; Mattingley, Jason B.; Riek, Stephan; Carroll, Timothy J.

2016-01-01

There are well-documented differences in the way that people typically perform identical motor tasks with their dominant and the nondominant arms. According to Yadav and Sainburg's (Neuroscience 196: 153–167, 2011) hybrid-control model, this is because the two arms rely to different degrees on impedance control versus predictive control processes. Here, we assessed whether differences in limb control mechanisms influence the rate of feedforward compensation to a novel dynamic environment. Seventy-five healthy, right-handed participants, divided into four subsamples depending on the arm (left, right) and direction of the force field (ipsilateral, contralateral), reached to central targets in velocity-dependent curl force fields. We assessed the rate at which participants developed predictive compensation for the force field using intermittent error-clamp trials and assessed both kinematic errors and initial aiming angles in the field trials. Participants who were exposed to fields that pushed the limb toward ipsilateral space reduced kinematic errors more slowly, built up less predictive field compensation, and relied more on strategic reaiming than those exposed to contralateral fields. However, there were no significant differences in predictive field compensation or kinematic errors between limbs, suggesting that participants using either the left or the right arm could adapt equally well to novel dynamics. It therefore appears that the distinct preferences in control mechanisms typically observed for the dominant and nondominant arms reflect a default mode that is based on habitual functional requirements rather than an absolute limit in capacity to access the controller specialized for the opposite limb. PMID:27582293

Tourism forecasting using modified empirical mode decomposition and group method of data handling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yahya, N. A.; Samsudin, R.; Shabri, A.

2017-09-01

In this study, a hybrid model using modified Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH) model is proposed for tourism forecasting. This approach reconstructs intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) produced by EMD using trial and error method. The new component and the remaining IMFs is then predicted respectively using GMDH model. Finally, the forecasted results for each component are aggregated to construct an ensemble forecast. The data used in this experiment are monthly time series data of tourist arrivals from China, Thailand and India to Malaysia from year 2000 to 2016. The performance of the model is evaluated using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) where conventional GMDH model and EMD-GMDH model are used as benchmark models. Empirical results proved that the proposed model performed better forecasts than the benchmarked models.

Robust estimation of thermodynamic parameters (ΔH, ΔS and ΔCp) for prediction of retention time in gas chromatography - Part II (Application).

PubMed

Claumann, Carlos Alberto; Wüst Zibetti, André; Bolzan, Ariovaldo; Machado, Ricardo A F; Pinto, Leonel Teixeira

2015-12-18

For this work, an analysis of parameter estimation for the retention factor in GC model was performed, considering two different criteria: sum of square error, and maximum error in absolute value; relevant statistics are described for each case. The main contribution of this work is the implementation of an initialization scheme (specialized) for the estimated parameters, which features fast convergence (low computational time) and is based on knowledge of the surface of the error criterion. In an application to a series of alkanes, specialized initialization resulted in significant reduction to the number of evaluations of the objective function (reducing computational time) in the parameter estimation. The obtained reduction happened between one and two orders of magnitude, compared with the simple random initialization. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Family matters: dyadic agreement in end-of-life medical decision making.

PubMed

Schmid, Bettina; Allen, Rebecca S; Haley, Philip P; Decoster, Jamie

2010-04-01

We examined race/ethnicity and cultural context within hypothetical end-of-life medical decision scenarios and its influence on patient-proxy agreement. Family dyads consisting of an older adult and 1 family member, typically an adult child, responded to questions regarding the older adult's preferences for cardiopulmonary resuscitation, artificial feeding and fluids, and palliative care in hypothetical illness scenarios. The responses of 34 Caucasian dyads and 30 African American dyads were compared to determine the extent to which family members could accurately predict the treatment preferences of their older relative. We found higher treatment preference agreement among African American dyads compared with Caucasian dyads when considering overall raw difference scores (i.e., overtreatment errors can compensate for undertreatment errors). Prior advance care planning moderated the effect such that lower levels of advance care planning predicted undertreatment errors among African American proxies and overtreatment errors among Caucasian proxies. In contrast, no racial/ethnic differences in treatment preference agreement were found within absolute difference scores (i.e., total error, regardless of the direction of error). This project is one of the first to examine the mediators and moderators of dyadic racial/cultural differences in treatment preference agreement for end-of-life care in hypothetical illness scenarios. Future studies should use mixed method approaches to explore underlying factors for racial differences in patient-proxy agreement as a basis for developing culturally sensitive interventions to reduce racial disparities in end-of-life care options.

Assessment of errors in static electrical impedance tomography with adjacent and trigonometric current patterns.

PubMed

Kolehmainen, V; Vauhkonen, M; Karjalainen, P A; Kaipio, J P

1997-11-01

In electrical impedance tomography (EIT), difference imaging is often preferred over static imaging. This is because of the many unknowns in the forward modelling which make it difficult to obtain reliable absolute resistivity estimates. However, static imaging and absolute resistivity values are needed in some potential applications of EIT. In this paper we demonstrate by simulation the effects of different error components that are included in the reconstruction of static EIT images. All simulations are carried out in two dimensions with the so-called complete electrode model. Errors that are considered are the modelling error in the boundary shape of an object, errors in the electrode sizes and localizations and errors in the contact impedances under the electrodes. Results using both adjacent and trigonometric current patterns are given.

On the Use of the Main-sequence Knee (Saddle) to Measure Globular Cluster Ages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saracino, S.; Dalessandro, E.; Ferraro, F. R.; Lanzoni, B.; Origlia, L.; Salaris, M.; Pietrinferni, A.; Geisler, D.; Kalirai, J. S.; Correnti, M.; Cohen, R. E.; Mauro, F.; Villanova, S.; Moni Bidin, C.

2018-06-01

In this paper, we review the operational definition of the so-called main-sequence knee (MS-knee), a feature in the color-magnitude diagram (CMD) occurring at the low-mass end of the MS. The magnitude of this feature is predicted to be independent of age at fixed chemical composition. For this reason, its difference in magnitude with respect to the MS turn-off (MS-TO) point has been suggested as a possible diagnostic to estimate absolute globular cluster (GC) ages. We first demonstrate that the operational definition of the MS-knee currently adopted in the literature refers to the inflection point of the MS (which we here more appropriately named MS-saddle), a feature that is well distinct from the knee and which cannot be used as its proxy. The MS-knee is only visible in near-infrared CMDs, while the MS-saddle can be also detected in optical–NIR CMDs. By using different sets of isochrones, we then demonstrate that the absolute magnitude of the MS-knee varies by a few tenths of a dex from one model to another, thus showing that at the moment stellar models may not capture the full systematic error in the method. We also demonstrate that while the absolute magnitude of the MS-saddle is almost coincident in different models, it has a systematic dependence on the adopted color combinations which is not predicted by stellar models. Hence, it cannot be used as a reliable reference for absolute age determination. Moreover, when statistical and systematic uncertainties are properly taken into account, the difference in magnitude between the MS-TO and the MS-saddle does not provide absolute ages with better accuracy than other methods like the MS-fitting.

Predicting Near Edge X-ray Absorption Spectra with the Spin-Free Exact-Two-Component Hamiltonian and Orthogonality Constrained Density Functional Theory.

PubMed

Verma, Prakash; Derricotte, Wallace D; Evangelista, Francesco A

2016-01-12

Orthogonality constrained density functional theory (OCDFT) provides near-edge X-ray absorption (NEXAS) spectra of first-row elements within one electronvolt from experimental values. However, with increasing atomic number, scalar relativistic effects become the dominant source of error in a nonrelativistic OCDFT treatment of core-valence excitations. In this work we report a novel implementation of the spin-free exact-two-component (X2C) one-electron treatment of scalar relativistic effects and its combination with a recently developed OCDFT approach to compute a manifold of core-valence excited states. The inclusion of scalar relativistic effects in OCDFT reduces the mean absolute error of second-row elements core-valence excitations from 10.3 to 2.3 eV. For all the excitations considered, the results from X2C calculations are also found to be in excellent agreement with those from low-order spin-free Douglas-Kroll-Hess relativistic Hamiltonians. The X2C-OCDFT NEXAS spectra of three organotitanium complexes (TiCl4, TiCpCl3, TiCp2Cl2) are in very good agreement with unshifted experimental results and show a maximum absolute error of 5-6 eV. In addition, a decomposition of the total transition dipole moment into partial atomic contributions is proposed and applied to analyze the nature of the Ti pre-edge transitions in the three organotitanium complexes.

Modeling micro-droplet formation in near-field electrohydrodynamic jet printing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Popell, George Colin

Near-field electrohydrodynamic jet (E-jet) printing has recently gained significant interest within the manufacturing research community because of its ability to produce micro/sub-micron-scale droplets using a wide variety of inks and substrates. However, the process currently operates in open-loop and as a result suffers from unpredictable printing quality. The use of physics-based, control-oriented process models is expected to enable closed-loop control of this printing technique. The objective of this research is to perform a fundamental study of the substrate-side droplet shape-evolution in near-field E-jet printing and to develop a physics-based model of the same that links input parameters such as voltage magnitude and ink properties to the height and diameter of the printed droplet. In order to achieve this objective, a synchronized high-speed imaging and substrate-side current-detection system was used implemented to enable a correlation between the droplet shape parameters and the measured current signal. The experimental data reveals characteristic process signatures and droplet spreading regimes. The results of these studies are then used as the basis for a model that predicts the droplet diameter and height using the measured current signal as the input. A unique scaling factor based on the measured current signal is used in this model instead of relying on empirical scaling laws found in literature. For each of the three inks tested in this study, the average absolute error in the model predictions is under 4.6% for diameter predictions and under 10.6% for height predictions of the steady-state droplet. While printing under non-conducive ambient conditions of low humidity and high temperatures, the use of the environmental correction factor in the model is seen to result in average absolute errors of 10.35% and 12.5% for diameter and height predictions.

Pyrometer with tracking balancing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ponomarev, D. B.; Zakharenko, V. A.; Shkaev, A. G.

2018-04-01

Currently, one of the main metrological noncontact temperature measurement challenges is the emissivity uncertainty. This paper describes a pyrometer with emissivity effect diminishing through the use of a measuring scheme with tracking balancing in which the radiation receiver is a null-indicator. In this paper the results of the prototype pyrometer absolute error study in surfaces temperature measurement of aluminum and nickel samples are presented. There is absolute error calculated values comparison considering the emissivity table values with errors on the results of experimental measurements by the proposed method. The practical implementation of the proposed technical solution has allowed two times to reduce the error due to the emissivity uncertainty.

Phenobarbital in intensive care unit pediatric population: predictive performances of population pharmacokinetic model.

PubMed

Marsot, Amélie; Michel, Fabrice; Chasseloup, Estelle; Paut, Olivier; Guilhaumou, Romain; Blin, Olivier

2017-10-01

An external evaluation of phenobarbital population pharmacokinetic model described by Marsot et al. was performed in pediatric intensive care unit. Model evaluation is an important issue for dose adjustment. This external evaluation should allow confirming the proposed dosage adaptation and extending these recommendations to the entire intensive care pediatric population. External evaluation of phenobarbital published population pharmacokinetic model of Marsot et al. was realized in a new retrospective dataset of 35 patients hospitalized in a pediatric intensive care unit. The published population pharmacokinetic model was implemented in nonmem 7.3. Predictive performance was assessed by quantifying bias and inaccuracy of model prediction. Normalized prediction distribution errors (NPDE) and visual predictive check (VPC) were also evaluated. A total of 35 infants were studied with a mean age of 33.5 weeks (range: 12 days-16 years) and a mean weight of 12.6 kg (range: 2.7-70.0 kg). The model predicted the observed phenobarbital concentrations with a reasonable bias and inaccuracy. The median prediction error was 3.03% (95% CI: -8.52 to 58.12%), and the median absolute prediction error was 26.20% (95% CI: 13.07-75.59%). No trends in NPDE and VPC were observed. The model previously proposed by Marsot et al. in neonates hospitalized in intensive care unit was externally validated for IV infusion administration. The model-based dosing regimen was extended in all pediatric intensive care unit to optimize treatment. Due to inter- and intravariability in pharmacokinetic model, this dosing regimen should be combined with therapeutic drug monitoring. © 2017 Société Française de Pharmacologie et de Thérapeutique.

Monitoring surface currents and transport variability in Drake Passage using altimetry and hydrography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pavic, M.; Cunningham, S. A.; Challenor, P.; Duncan, L.

2003-04-01

Between 1993 and 2001 the UK has completed seven occupations of WOCE section SR1b from Burdwood Bank to Elephant Island across Drake Passage. The section consists of a minimum of 31 full depth CTD stations, shipboard ADCP measurements of currents in the upper 300m, and in three of the years full depth lowered ADCP measurements at each station. The section lies under the satellite track of ERS2. The satellite altimeter can determine the along track slope of the sea surface relative to a reference satellite pass once every 35 days. From this we can calculate the relative SSH slope or geostrophic surface current anomalies. If we measure simultaneously with any satellite pass, we can estimate the absolute surface geostrophic current for any subsequent pass. This says that by combining in situ absolute velocity measurements - the reference velocities with altimetry at one time the absolute geostrophic current can be estimated on any subsequent (or previous) altimeter pass. This is the method of Challenor et al. 1996, though they did not have the data to test this relationship. We have seven estimates of the surface reference velocity: one for each of the seven occupations of the WOCE line. The difference in any pair of reference velocities is predicted by the difference of the corresponding altimeter measurements. Errors in combining the satellite and hydrographic data are estimated by comparing pairs of these differences: errors arise from the in situ observations and from the altimetric measurements. Finally we produce our best estimates of eight years of absolute surface geostrophic currents and transport variability along WOCE section SR1 in Drake Passage.

Prediction of the reference evapotranspiration using a chaotic approach.

PubMed

Wang, Wei-guang; Zou, Shan; Luo, Zhao-hui; Zhang, Wei; Chen, Dan; Kong, Jun

2014-01-01

Evapotranspiration is one of the most important hydrological variables in the context of water resources management. An attempt was made to understand and predict the dynamics of reference evapotranspiration from a nonlinear dynamical perspective in this study. The reference evapotranspiration data was calculated using the FAO Penman-Monteith equation with the observed daily meteorological data for the period 1966-2005 at four meteorological stations (i.e., Baotou, Zhangbei, Kaifeng, and Shaoguan) representing a wide range of climatic conditions of China. The correlation dimension method was employed to investigate the chaotic behavior of the reference evapotranspiration series. The existence of chaos in the reference evapotranspiration series at the four different locations was proved by the finite and low correlation dimension. A local approximation approach was employed to forecast the daily reference evapotranspiration series. Low root mean square error (RSME) and mean absolute error (MAE) (for all locations lower than 0.31 and 0.24, resp.), high correlation coefficient (CC), and modified coefficient of efficiency (for all locations larger than 0.97 and 0.8, resp.) indicate that the predicted reference evapotranspiration agrees well with the observed one. The encouraging results indicate the suitableness of chaotic approach for understanding and predicting the dynamics of the reference evapotranspiration.

Uncertainty analysis technique for OMEGA Dante measurements

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

May, M. J.; Widmann, K.; Sorce, C.

2010-10-15

The Dante is an 18 channel x-ray filtered diode array which records the spectrally and temporally resolved radiation flux from various targets (e.g., hohlraums, etc.) at x-ray energies between 50 eV and 10 keV. It is a main diagnostic installed on the OMEGA laser facility at the Laboratory for Laser Energetics, University of Rochester. The absolute flux is determined from the photometric calibration of the x-ray diodes, filters and mirrors, and an unfold algorithm. Understanding the errors on this absolute measurement is critical for understanding hohlraum energetic physics. We present a new method for quantifying the uncertainties on the determinedmore » flux using a Monte Carlo parameter variation technique. This technique combines the uncertainties in both the unfold algorithm and the error from the absolute calibration of each channel into a one sigma Gaussian error function. One thousand test voltage sets are created using these error functions and processed by the unfold algorithm to produce individual spectra and fluxes. Statistical methods are applied to the resultant set of fluxes to estimate error bars on the measurements.« less

Uncertainty Analysis Technique for OMEGA Dante Measurements

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

May, M J; Widmann, K; Sorce, C

2010-05-07

The Dante is an 18 channel X-ray filtered diode array which records the spectrally and temporally resolved radiation flux from various targets (e.g. hohlraums, etc.) at X-ray energies between 50 eV to 10 keV. It is a main diagnostics installed on the OMEGA laser facility at the Laboratory for Laser Energetics, University of Rochester. The absolute flux is determined from the photometric calibration of the X-ray diodes, filters and mirrors and an unfold algorithm. Understanding the errors on this absolute measurement is critical for understanding hohlraum energetic physics. We present a new method for quantifying the uncertainties on the determinedmore » flux using a Monte-Carlo parameter variation technique. This technique combines the uncertainties in both the unfold algorithm and the error from the absolute calibration of each channel into a one sigma Gaussian error function. One thousand test voltage sets are created using these error functions and processed by the unfold algorithm to produce individual spectra and fluxes. Statistical methods are applied to the resultant set of fluxes to estimate error bars on the measurements.« less

Mapping the absolute magnetic field and evaluating the quadratic Zeeman-effect-induced systematic error in an atom interferometer gravimeter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Qing-Qing; Freier, Christian; Leykauf, Bastian; Schkolnik, Vladimir; Yang, Jun; Krutzik, Markus; Peters, Achim

2017-09-01

Precisely evaluating the systematic error induced by the quadratic Zeeman effect is important for developing atom interferometer gravimeters aiming at an accuracy in the μ Gal regime (1 μ Gal =10-8m /s2 ≈10-9g ). This paper reports on the experimental investigation of Raman spectroscopy-based magnetic field measurements and the evaluation of the systematic error in the gravimetric atom interferometer (GAIN) due to quadratic Zeeman effect. We discuss Raman duration and frequency step-size-dependent magnetic field measurement uncertainty, present vector light shift and tensor light shift induced magnetic field measurement offset, and map the absolute magnetic field inside the interferometer chamber of GAIN with an uncertainty of 0.72 nT and a spatial resolution of 12.8 mm. We evaluate the quadratic Zeeman-effect-induced gravity measurement error in GAIN as 2.04 μ Gal . The methods shown in this paper are important for precisely mapping the absolute magnetic field in vacuum and reducing the quadratic Zeeman-effect-induced systematic error in Raman transition-based precision measurements, such as atomic interferometer gravimeters.

A new accuracy measure based on bounded relative error for time series forecasting

PubMed Central

Twycross, Jamie; Garibaldi, Jonathan M.

2017-01-01

Many accuracy measures have been proposed in the past for time series forecasting comparisons. However, many of these measures suffer from one or more issues such as poor resistance to outliers and scale dependence. In this paper, while summarising commonly used accuracy measures, a special review is made on the symmetric mean absolute percentage error. Moreover, a new accuracy measure called the Unscaled Mean Bounded Relative Absolute Error (UMBRAE), which combines the best features of various alternative measures, is proposed to address the common issues of existing measures. A comparative evaluation on the proposed and related measures has been made with both synthetic and real-world data. The results indicate that the proposed measure, with user selectable benchmark, performs as well as or better than other measures on selected criteria. Though it has been commonly accepted that there is no single best accuracy measure, we suggest that UMBRAE could be a good choice to evaluate forecasting methods, especially for cases where measures based on geometric mean of relative errors, such as the geometric mean relative absolute error, are preferred. PMID:28339480

A new accuracy measure based on bounded relative error for time series forecasting.

PubMed

Chen, Chao; Twycross, Jamie; Garibaldi, Jonathan M

2017-01-01

Many accuracy measures have been proposed in the past for time series forecasting comparisons. However, many of these measures suffer from one or more issues such as poor resistance to outliers and scale dependence. In this paper, while summarising commonly used accuracy measures, a special review is made on the symmetric mean absolute percentage error. Moreover, a new accuracy measure called the Unscaled Mean Bounded Relative Absolute Error (UMBRAE), which combines the best features of various alternative measures, is proposed to address the common issues of existing measures. A comparative evaluation on the proposed and related measures has been made with both synthetic and real-world data. The results indicate that the proposed measure, with user selectable benchmark, performs as well as or better than other measures on selected criteria. Though it has been commonly accepted that there is no single best accuracy measure, we suggest that UMBRAE could be a good choice to evaluate forecasting methods, especially for cases where measures based on geometric mean of relative errors, such as the geometric mean relative absolute error, are preferred.

Development and Evaluation of a Mobile Personalized Blood Glucose Prediction System for Patients With Gestational Diabetes Mellitus.

PubMed

Pustozerov, Evgenii; Popova, Polina; Tkachuk, Aleksandra; Bolotko, Yana; Yuldashev, Zafar; Grineva, Elena

2018-01-09

Personalized blood glucose (BG) prediction for diabetes patients is an important goal that is pursued by many researchers worldwide. Despite many proposals, only a few projects are dedicated to the development of complete recommender system infrastructures that incorporate BG prediction algorithms for diabetes patients. The development and implementation of such a system aided by mobile technology is of particular interest to patients with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), especially considering the significant importance of quickly achieving adequate BG control for these patients in a short period (ie, during pregnancy) and a typically higher acceptance rate for mobile health (mHealth) solutions for short- to midterm usage. This study was conducted with the objective of developing infrastructure comprising data processing algorithms, BG prediction models, and an appropriate mobile app for patients' electronic record management to guide BG prediction-based personalized recommendations for patients with GDM. A mobile app for electronic diary management was developed along with data exchange and continuous BG signal processing software. Both components were coupled to obtain the necessary data for use in the personalized BG prediction system. Necessary data on meals, BG measurements, and other events were collected via the implemented mobile app and continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) system processing software. These data were used to tune and evaluate the BG prediction model, which included an algorithm for dynamic coefficients tuning. In the clinical study, 62 participants (GDM: n=49; control: n=13) took part in a 1-week monitoring trial during which they used the mobile app to track their meals and self-measurements of BG and CGM system for continuous BG monitoring. The data on 909 food intakes and corresponding postprandial BG curves as well as the set of patients' characteristics (eg, glycated hemoglobin, body mass index [BMI], age, and lifestyle parameters) were selected as inputs for the BG prediction models. The prediction results by the models for BG levels 1 hour after food intake were root mean square error=0.87 mmol/L, mean absolute error=0.69 mmol/L, and mean absolute percentage error=12.8%, which correspond to an adequate prediction accuracy for BG control decisions. The mobile app for the collection and processing of relevant data, appropriate software for CGM system signals processing, and BG prediction models were developed for a recommender system. The developed system may help improve BG control in patients with GDM; this will be the subject of evaluation in a subsequent study. ©Evgenii Pustozerov, Polina Popova, Aleksandra Tkachuk, Yana Bolotko, Zafar Yuldashev, Elena Grineva. Originally published in JMIR Mhealth and Uhealth (http://mhealth.jmir.org), 09.01.2018.

Sub-nanometer periodic nonlinearity error in absolute distance interferometers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Hongxing; Huang, Kaiqi; Hu, Pengcheng; Zhu, Pengfei; Tan, Jiubin; Fan, Zhigang

2015-05-01

Periodic nonlinearity which can result in error in nanometer scale has become a main problem limiting the absolute distance measurement accuracy. In order to eliminate this error, a new integrated interferometer with non-polarizing beam splitter is developed. This leads to disappearing of the frequency and/or polarization mixing. Furthermore, a strict requirement on the laser source polarization is highly reduced. By combining retro-reflector and angel prism, reference and measuring beams can be spatially separated, and therefore, their optical paths are not overlapped. So, the main cause of the periodic nonlinearity error, i.e., the frequency and/or polarization mixing and leakage of beam, is eliminated. Experimental results indicate that the periodic phase error is kept within 0.0018°.

Evaluation of a moderate resolution, satellite-based impervious surface map using an independent, high-resolution validation data set

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, J.W.; Jarnagin, T.

2009-01-01

Given the relatively high cost of mapping impervious surfaces at regional scales, substantial effort is being expended in the development of moderate-resolution, satellite-based methods for estimating impervious surface area (ISA). To rigorously assess the accuracy of these data products high quality, independently derived validation data are needed. High-resolution data were collected across a gradient of development within the Mid-Atlantic region to assess the accuracy of National Land Cover Data (NLCD) Landsat-based ISA estimates. Absolute error (satellite predicted area - "reference area") and relative error [satellite (predicted area - "reference area")/ "reference area"] were calculated for each of 240 sample regions that are each more than 15 Landsat pixels on a side. The ability to compile and examine ancillary data in a geographic information system environment provided for evaluation of both validation and NLCD data and afforded efficient exploration of observed errors. In a minority of cases, errors could be explained by temporal discontinuities between the date of satellite image capture and validation source data in rapidly changing places. In others, errors were created by vegetation cover over impervious surfaces and by other factors that bias the satellite processing algorithms. On average in the Mid-Atlantic region, the NLCD product underestimates ISA by approximately 5%. While the error range varies between 2 and 8%, this underestimation occurs regardless of development intensity. Through such analyses the errors, strengths, and weaknesses of particular satellite products can be explored to suggest appropriate uses for regional, satellite-based data in rapidly developing areas of environmental significance. ?? 2009 ASCE.

Demand Controlled Economizer Cycles: A Direct Digital Control Scheme for Heating, Ventilating, and Air Conditioning Systems,

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-05-01

Control Ignored any error of 1/10th degree or less. This was done by setting the error term E and the integral sum PREINT to zero If then absolute value of...signs of two errors jeq tdiff if equal, jump clr @preint else zero integal sum tdiff mov @diff,rl fetch absolute value of OAT-RAT ci rl,25 is...includes a heating coil and thermostatic control to maintain the air in this path at an elevated temperature, typically around 80 degrees Farenheit (80 F

Queuing Time Prediction Using WiFi Positioning Data in an Indoor Scenario.

PubMed

Shu, Hua; Song, Ci; Pei, Tao; Xu, Lianming; Ou, Yang; Zhang, Libin; Li, Tao

2016-11-22

Queuing is common in urban public places. Automatically monitoring and predicting queuing time can not only help individuals to reduce their wait time and alleviate anxiety but also help managers to allocate resources more efficiently and enhance their ability to address emergencies. This paper proposes a novel method to estimate and predict queuing time in indoor environments based on WiFi positioning data. First, we use a series of parameters to identify the trajectories that can be used as representatives of queuing time. Next, we divide the day into equal time slices and estimate individuals' average queuing time during specific time slices. Finally, we build a nonstandard autoregressive (NAR) model trained using the previous day's WiFi estimation results and actual queuing time to predict the queuing time in the upcoming time slice. A case study comparing two other time series analysis models shows that the NAR model has better precision. Random topological errors caused by the drift phenomenon of WiFi positioning technology (locations determined by a WiFi positioning system may drift accidently) and systematic topological errors caused by the positioning system are the main factors that affect the estimation precision. Therefore, we optimize the deployment strategy during the positioning system deployment phase and propose a drift ratio parameter pertaining to the trajectory screening phase to alleviate the impact of topological errors and improve estimates. The WiFi positioning data from an eight-day case study conducted at the T3-C entrance of Beijing Capital International Airport show that the mean absolute estimation error is 147 s, which is approximately 26.92% of the actual queuing time. For predictions using the NAR model, the proportion is approximately 27.49%. The theoretical predictions and the empirical case study indicate that the NAR model is an effective method to estimate and predict queuing time in indoor public areas.

Queuing Time Prediction Using WiFi Positioning Data in an Indoor Scenario

PubMed Central

Shu, Hua; Song, Ci; Pei, Tao; Xu, Lianming; Ou, Yang; Zhang, Libin; Li, Tao

2016-01-01

Queuing is common in urban public places. Automatically monitoring and predicting queuing time can not only help individuals to reduce their wait time and alleviate anxiety but also help managers to allocate resources more efficiently and enhance their ability to address emergencies. This paper proposes a novel method to estimate and predict queuing time in indoor environments based on WiFi positioning data. First, we use a series of parameters to identify the trajectories that can be used as representatives of queuing time. Next, we divide the day into equal time slices and estimate individuals’ average queuing time during specific time slices. Finally, we build a nonstandard autoregressive (NAR) model trained using the previous day’s WiFi estimation results and actual queuing time to predict the queuing time in the upcoming time slice. A case study comparing two other time series analysis models shows that the NAR model has better precision. Random topological errors caused by the drift phenomenon of WiFi positioning technology (locations determined by a WiFi positioning system may drift accidently) and systematic topological errors caused by the positioning system are the main factors that affect the estimation precision. Therefore, we optimize the deployment strategy during the positioning system deployment phase and propose a drift ratio parameter pertaining to the trajectory screening phase to alleviate the impact of topological errors and improve estimates. The WiFi positioning data from an eight-day case study conducted at the T3-C entrance of Beijing Capital International Airport show that the mean absolute estimation error is 147 s, which is approximately 26.92% of the actual queuing time. For predictions using the NAR model, the proportion is approximately 27.49%. The theoretical predictions and the empirical case study indicate that the NAR model is an effective method to estimate and predict queuing time in indoor public areas. PMID:27879663

A review on Black-Scholes model in pricing warrants in Bursa Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gunawan, Nur Izzaty Ilmiah Indra; Ibrahim, Siti Nur Iqmal; Rahim, Norhuda Abdul

2017-01-01

This paper studies the accuracy of the Black-Scholes (BS) model and the dilution-adjusted Black-Scholes (DABS) model to pricing some warrants traded in the Malaysian market. Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) are used to compare the two models. Results show that the DABS model is more accurate than the BS model for the selected data.

Improved prediction of higher heating value of biomass using an artificial neural network model based on proximate analysis.

PubMed

Uzun, Harun; Yıldız, Zeynep; Goldfarb, Jillian L; Ceylan, Selim

2017-06-01

As biomass becomes more integrated into our energy feedstocks, the ability to predict its combustion enthalpies from routine data such as carbon, ash, and moisture content enables rapid decisions about utilization. The present work constructs a novel artificial neural network model with a 3-3-1 tangent sigmoid architecture to predict biomasses' higher heating values from only their proximate analyses, requiring minimal specificity as compared to models based on elemental composition. The model presented has a considerably higher correlation coefficient (0.963) and lower root mean square (0.375), mean absolute (0.328), and mean bias errors (0.010) than other models presented in the literature which, at least when applied to the present data set, tend to under-predict the combustion enthalpy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A QSPR model for prediction of diffusion coefficient of non-electrolyte organic compounds in air at ambient condition.

PubMed

Mirkhani, Seyyed Alireza; Gharagheizi, Farhad; Sattari, Mehdi

2012-03-01

Evaluation of diffusion coefficients of pure compounds in air is of great interest for many diverse industrial and air quality control applications. In this communication, a QSPR method is applied to predict the molecular diffusivity of chemical compounds in air at 298.15K and atmospheric pressure. Four thousand five hundred and seventy nine organic compounds from broad spectrum of chemical families have been investigated to propose a comprehensive and predictive model. The final model is derived by Genetic Function Approximation (GFA) and contains five descriptors. Using this dedicated model, we obtain satisfactory results quantified by the following statistical results: Squared Correlation Coefficient=0.9723, Standard Deviation Error=0.003 and Average Absolute Relative Deviation=0.3% for the predicted properties from existing experimental values. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Forecasting Container Throughput at the Doraleh Port in Djibouti through Time Series Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohamed Ismael, Hawa; Vandyck, George Kobina

The Doraleh Container Terminal (DCT) located in Djibouti has been noted as the most technologically advanced container terminal on the African continent. DCT's strategic location at the crossroads of the main shipping lanes connecting Asia, Africa and Europe put it in a unique position to provide important shipping services to vessels plying that route. This paper aims to forecast container throughput through the Doraleh Container Port in Djibouti by Time Series Analysis. A selection of univariate forecasting models has been used, namely Triple Exponential Smoothing Model, Grey Model and Linear Regression Model. By utilizing the above three models and their combination, the forecast of container throughput through the Doraleh port was realized. A comparison of the different forecasting results of the three models, in addition to the combination forecast is then undertaken, based on commonly used evaluation criteria Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The study found that the Linear Regression forecasting Model was the best prediction method for forecasting the container throughput, since its forecast error was the least. Based on the regression model, a ten (10) year forecast for container throughput at DCT has been made.

How Many Alternatives Can Be Ranked? A Comparison of the Paired Comparison and Ranking Methods.

PubMed

Ock, Minsu; Yi, Nari; Ahn, Jeonghoon; Jo, Min-Woo

2016-01-01

To determine the feasibility of converting ranking data into paired comparison (PC) data and suggest the number of alternatives that can be ranked by comparing a PC and a ranking method. Using a total of 222 health states, a household survey was conducted in a sample of 300 individuals from the general population. Each respondent performed a PC 15 times and a ranking method 6 times (two attempts of ranking three, four, and five health states, respectively). The health states of the PC and the ranking method were constructed to overlap each other. We converted the ranked data into PC data and examined the consistency of the response rate. Applying probit regression, we obtained the predicted probability of each method. Pearson correlation coefficients were determined between the predicted probabilities of those methods. The mean absolute error was also assessed between the observed and the predicted values. The overall consistency of the response rate was 82.8%. The Pearson correlation coefficients were 0.789, 0.852, and 0.893 for ranking three, four, and five health states, respectively. The lowest mean absolute error was 0.082 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.074-0.090) in ranking five health states, followed by 0.123 (95% CI 0.111-0.135) in ranking four health states and 0.126 (95% CI 0.113-0.138) in ranking three health states. After empirically examining the consistency of the response rate between a PC and a ranking method, we suggest that using five alternatives in the ranking method may be superior to using three or four alternatives. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Variable complexity online sequential extreme learning machine, with applications to streamflow prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lima, Aranildo R.; Hsieh, William W.; Cannon, Alex J.

2017-12-01

In situations where new data arrive continually, online learning algorithms are computationally much less costly than batch learning ones in maintaining the model up-to-date. The extreme learning machine (ELM), a single hidden layer artificial neural network with random weights in the hidden layer, is solved by linear least squares, and has an online learning version, the online sequential ELM (OSELM). As more data become available during online learning, information on the longer time scale becomes available, so ideally the model complexity should be allowed to change, but the number of hidden nodes (HN) remains fixed in OSELM. A variable complexity VC-OSELM algorithm is proposed to dynamically add or remove HN in the OSELM, allowing the model complexity to vary automatically as online learning proceeds. The performance of VC-OSELM was compared with OSELM in daily streamflow predictions at two hydrological stations in British Columbia, Canada, with VC-OSELM significantly outperforming OSELM in mean absolute error, root mean squared error and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency at both stations.

Noise-Enhanced Eversion Force Sense in Ankles With or Without Functional Instability.

PubMed

Ross, Scott E; Linens, Shelley W; Wright, Cynthia J; Arnold, Brent L

2015-08-01

Force sense impairments are associated with functional ankle instability. Stochastic resonance stimulation (SRS) may have implications for correcting these force sense deficits. To determine if SRS improved force sense. Case-control study. Research laboratory. Twelve people with functional ankle instability (age = 23 ± 3 years, height = 174 ± 8 cm, mass = 69 ± 10 kg) and 12 people with stable ankles (age = 22 ± 2 years, height = 170 ± 7 cm, mass = 64 ± 10 kg). The eversion force sense protocol required participants to reproduce a targeted muscle tension (10% of maximum voluntary isometric contraction). This protocol was assessed under SRSon and SRSoff (control) conditions. During SRSon, random subsensory mechanical noise was applied to the lower leg at a customized optimal intensity for each participant. Constant error, absolute error, and variable error measures quantified accuracy, overall performance, and consistency of force reproduction, respectively. With SRS, we observed main effects for force sense absolute error (SRSoff = 1.01 ± 0.67 N, SRSon = 0.69 ± 0.42 N) and variable error (SRSoff = 1.11 ± 0.64 N, SRSon = 0.78 ± 0.56 N) (P < .05). No other main effects or treatment-by-group interactions were found (P > .05). Although SRS reduced the overall magnitude (absolute error) and variability (variable error) of force sense errors, it had no effect on the directionality (constant error). Clinically, SRS may enhance muscle tension ability, which could have treatment implications for ankle stability.

Object detection in natural backgrounds predicted by discrimination performance and models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rohaly, A. M.; Ahumada, A. J. Jr; Watson, A. B.

1997-01-01

Many models of visual performance predict image discriminability, the visibility of the difference between a pair of images. We compared the ability of three image discrimination models to predict the detectability of objects embedded in natural backgrounds. The three models were: a multiple channel Cortex transform model with within-channel masking; a single channel contrast sensitivity filter model; and a digital image difference metric. Each model used a Minkowski distance metric (generalized vector magnitude) to summate absolute differences between the background and object plus background images. For each model, this summation was implemented with three different exponents: 2, 4 and infinity. In addition, each combination of model and summation exponent was implemented with and without a simple contrast gain factor. The model outputs were compared to measures of object detectability obtained from 19 observers. Among the models without the contrast gain factor, the multiple channel model with a summation exponent of 4 performed best, predicting the pattern of observer d's with an RMS error of 2.3 dB. The contrast gain factor improved the predictions of all three models for all three exponents. With the factor, the best exponent was 4 for all three models, and their prediction errors were near 1 dB. These results demonstrate that image discrimination models can predict the relative detectability of objects in natural scenes.

Relevant reduction effect with a modified thermoplastic mask of rotational error for glottic cancer in IMRT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, Jae Hong; Jung, Joo-Young; Cho, Kwang Hwan; Ryu, Mi Ryeong; Bae, Sun Hyun; Moon, Seong Kwon; Kim, Yong Ho; Choe, Bo-Young; Suh, Tae Suk

2017-02-01

The purpose of this study was to analyze the glottis rotational error (GRE) by using a thermoplastic mask for patients with the glottic cancer undergoing intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT). We selected 20 patients with glottic cancer who had received IMRT by using the tomotherapy. The image modalities with both kilovoltage computed tomography (planning kVCT) and megavoltage CT (daily MVCT) images were used for evaluating the error. Six anatomical landmarks in the image were defined to evaluate a correlation between the absolute GRE (°) and the length of contact with the underlying skin of the patient by the mask (mask, mm). We also statistically analyzed the results by using the Pearson's correlation coefficient and a linear regression analysis ( P <0.05). The mask and the absolute GRE were verified to have a statistical correlation ( P < 0.01). We found a statistical significance for each parameter in the linear regression analysis (mask versus absolute roll: P = 0.004 [ P < 0.05]; mask versus 3D-error: P = 0.000 [ P < 0.05]). The range of the 3D-errors with contact by the mask was from 1.2% - 39.7% between the maximumand no-contact case in this study. A thermoplastic mask with a tight, increased contact area may possibly contribute to the uncertainty of the reproducibility as a variation of the absolute GRE. Thus, we suggest that a modified mask, such as one that covers only the glottis area, can significantly reduce the patients' setup errors during the treatment.

Online absolute pose compensation and steering control of industrial robot based on six degrees of freedom laser measurement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Juqing; Wang, Dayong; Fan, Baixing; Dong, Dengfeng; Zhou, Weihu

2017-03-01

In-situ intelligent manufacturing for large-volume equipment requires industrial robots with absolute high-accuracy positioning and orientation steering control. Conventional robots mainly employ an offline calibration technology to identify and compensate key robotic parameters. However, the dynamic and static parameters of a robot change nonlinearly. It is not possible to acquire a robot's actual parameters and control the absolute pose of the robot with a high accuracy within a large workspace by offline calibration in real-time. This study proposes a real-time online absolute pose steering control method for an industrial robot based on six degrees of freedom laser tracking measurement, which adopts comprehensive compensation and correction of differential movement variables. First, the pose steering control system and robot kinematics error model are constructed, and then the pose error compensation mechanism and algorithm are introduced in detail. By accurately achieving the position and orientation of the robot end-tool, mapping the computed Jacobian matrix of the joint variable and correcting the joint variable, the real-time online absolute pose compensation for an industrial robot is accurately implemented in simulations and experimental tests. The average positioning error is 0.048 mm and orientation accuracy is better than 0.01 deg. The results demonstrate that the proposed method is feasible, and the online absolute accuracy of a robot is sufficiently enhanced.

Spinal intra-operative three-dimensional navigation with infra-red tool tracking: correlation between clinical and absolute engineering accuracy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guha, Daipayan; Jakubovic, Raphael; Gupta, Shaurya; Yang, Victor X. D.

2017-02-01

Computer-assisted navigation (CAN) may guide spinal surgeries, reliably reducing screw breach rates. Definitions of screw breach, if reported, vary widely across studies. Absolute quantitative error is theoretically a more precise and generalizable metric of navigation accuracy, but has been computed variably and reported in fewer than 25% of clinical studies of CAN-guided pedicle screw accuracy. We reviewed a prospectively-collected series of 209 pedicle screws placed with CAN guidance to characterize the correlation between clinical pedicle screw accuracy, based on postoperative imaging, and absolute quantitative navigation accuracy. We found that acceptable screw accuracy was achieved for significantly fewer screws based on 2mm grade vs. Heary grade, particularly in the lumbar spine. Inter-rater agreement was good for the Heary classification and moderate for the 2mm grade, significantly greater among radiologists than surgeon raters. Mean absolute translational/angular accuracies were 1.75mm/3.13° and 1.20mm/3.64° in the axial and sagittal planes, respectively. There was no correlation between clinical and absolute navigation accuracy, in part because surgeons appear to compensate for perceived translational navigation error by adjusting screw medialization angle. Future studies of navigation accuracy should therefore report absolute translational and angular errors. Clinical screw grades based on post-operative imaging, if reported, may be more reliable if performed in multiple by radiologist raters.

The PMA Catalogue: 420 million positions and absolute proper motions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akhmetov, V. S.; Fedorov, P. N.; Velichko, A. B.; Shulga, V. M.

2017-07-01

We present a catalogue that contains about 420 million absolute proper motions of stars. It was derived from the combination of positions from Gaia DR1 and 2MASS, with a mean difference of epochs of about 15 yr. Most of the systematic zonal errors inherent in the 2MASS Catalogue were eliminated before deriving the absolute proper motions. The absolute calibration procedure (zero-pointing of the proper motions) was carried out using about 1.6 million positions of extragalactic sources. The mean formal error of the absolute calibration is less than 0.35 mas yr-1. The derived proper motions cover the whole celestial sphere without gaps for a range of stellar magnitudes from 8 to 21 mag. In the sky areas where the extragalactic sources are invisible (the avoidance zone), a dedicated procedure was used that transforms the relative proper motions into absolute ones. The rms error of proper motions depends on stellar magnitude and ranges from 2-5 mas yr-1 for stars with 10 mag < G < 17 mag to 5-10 mas yr-1 for faint ones. The present catalogue contains the Gaia DR1 positions of stars for the J2015 epoch. The system of the PMA proper motions does not depend on the systematic errors of the 2MASS positions, and in the range from 14 to 21 mag represents an independent realization of a quasi-inertial reference frame in the optical and near-infrared wavelength range. The Catalogue also contains stellar magnitudes taken from the Gaia DR1 and 2MASS catalogues. A comparison of the PMA proper motions of stars with similar data from certain recent catalogues has been undertaken.

[Research on Kalman interpolation prediction model based on micro-region PM2.5 concentration].

PubMed

Wang, Wei; Zheng, Bin; Chen, Binlin; An, Yaoming; Jiang, Xiaoming; Li, Zhangyong

2018-02-01

In recent years, the pollution problem of particulate matter, especially PM2.5, is becoming more and more serious, which has attracted many people's attention from all over the world. In this paper, a Kalman prediction model combined with cubic spline interpolation is proposed, which is applied to predict the concentration of PM2.5 in the micro-regional environment of campus, and to realize interpolation simulation diagram of concentration of PM2.5 and simulate the spatial distribution of PM2.5. The experiment data are based on the environmental information monitoring system which has been set up by our laboratory. And the predicted and actual values of PM2.5 concentration data have been checked by the way of Wilcoxon signed-rank test. We find that the value of bilateral progressive significance probability was 0.527, which is much greater than the significant level α = 0.05. The mean absolute error (MEA) of Kalman prediction model was 1.8 μg/m 3 , the average relative error (MER) was 6%, and the correlation coefficient R was 0.87. Thus, the Kalman prediction model has a better effect on the prediction of concentration of PM2.5 than those of the back propagation (BP) prediction and support vector machine (SVM) prediction. In addition, with the combination of Kalman prediction model and the spline interpolation method, the spatial distribution and local pollution characteristics of PM2.5 can be simulated.

Temporal expectation in focal hand dystonia.

PubMed

Avanzino, Laura; Martino, Davide; Martino, Isadora; Pelosin, Elisa; Vicario, Carmelo M; Bove, Marco; Defazio, Gianni; Abbruzzese, Giovanni

2013-02-01

Patients with writer's cramp present sensory and representational abnormalities relevant to motor control, such as impairment in the temporal discrimination between tactile stimuli and in pure motor imagery tasks, like the mental rotation of corporeal and inanimate objects. However, only limited information is available on the ability of patients with dystonia to process the time-dependent features (e.g. speed) of movement in real time. The processing of time-dependent features of movement has a crucial role in predicting whether the outcome of a complex motor sequence, such as handwriting or playing a musical passage, will be consistent with its ultimate goal, or results instead in an execution error. In this study, we sought to evaluate the implicit ability to perceive the temporal outcome of different movements in a group of patients with writer's cramp. Fourteen patients affected by writer's cramp in the right hand and 17 age- and gender-matched healthy subjects were recruited for the study. Subjects were asked to perform a temporal expectation task by predicting the end of visually perceived human body motion (handwriting, i.e. the action performed by the human body segment specifically affected by writer's cramp) or inanimate object motion (a moving circle reaching a spatial target). Videos representing movements were shown in full before experimental trials; the actual tasks consisted of watching the same videos, but interrupted after a variable interval ('pre-dark') from its onset by a dark interval of variable duration. During the 'dark' interval, subjects were asked to indicate when the movement represented in the video reached its end by clicking on the space bar of the keyboard. We also included a visual working memory task. Performance on the timing task was analysed measuring the absolute value of timing error, the coefficient of variability and the percentage of anticipation responses. Patients with writer's cramp exhibited greater absolute timing error compared with control subjects in the human body motion task (whereas no difference was observed in the inanimate object motion task). No effect of group was documented on the visual working memory tasks. Absolute timing error on the human body motion task did not significantly correlate with symptom severity, disease duration or writing speed. Our findings suggest an alteration of the writing movement representation at a central level and are consistent with the view that dystonia is not a purely motor disorder, but it also involves non-motor (sensory, cognitive) aspects related to movement processing and planning.

Real­-Time Ensemble Forecasting of Coronal Mass Ejections Using the Wsa-Enlil+Cone Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mays, M. L.; Taktakishvili, A.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Odstrcil, D.; MacNeice, P. J.; Rastaetter, L.; LaSota, J. A.

2014-12-01

Ensemble forecasting of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) provides significant information in that it provides an estimation of the spread or uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions. Real-time ensemble modeling of CME propagation is performed by forecasters at the Space Weather Research Center (SWRC) using the WSA-ENLIL+cone model available at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC). To estimate the effect of uncertainties in determining CME input parameters on arrival time predictions, a distribution of n (routinely n=48) CME input parameter sets are generated using the CCMC Stereo CME Analysis Tool (StereoCAT) which employs geometrical triangulation techniques. These input parameters are used to perform n different simulations yielding an ensemble of solar wind parameters at various locations of interest, including a probability distribution of CME arrival times (for hits), and geomagnetic storm strength (for Earth-directed hits). We present the results of ensemble simulations for a total of 38 CME events in 2013-2014. For 28 of the ensemble runs containing hits, the observed CME arrival was within the range of ensemble arrival time predictions for 14 runs (half). The average arrival time prediction was computed for each of the 28 ensembles predicting hits and using the actual arrival time, an average absolute error of 10.0 hours (RMSE=11.4 hours) was found for all 28 ensembles, which is comparable to current forecasting errors. Some considerations for the accuracy of ensemble CME arrival time predictions include the importance of the initial distribution of CME input parameters, particularly the mean and spread. When the observed arrivals are not within the predicted range, this still allows the ruling out of prediction errors caused by tested CME input parameters. Prediction errors can also arise from ambient model parameters such as the accuracy of the solar wind background, and other limitations. Additionally the ensemble modeling sysem was used to complete a parametric event case study of the sensitivity of the CME arrival time prediction to free parameters for ambient solar wind model and CME. The parameter sensitivity study suggests future directions for the system, such as running ensembles using various magnetogram inputs to the WSA model.

Error Analysis of Wind Measurements for the University of Illinois Sodium Doppler Temperature System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pfenninger, W. Matthew; Papen, George C.

1992-01-01

Four-frequency lidar measurements of temperature and wind velocity require accurate frequency tuning to an absolute reference and long term frequency stability. We quantify frequency tuning errors for the Illinois sodium system, to measure absolute frequencies and a reference interferometer to measure relative frequencies. To determine laser tuning errors, we monitor the vapor cell and interferometer during lidar data acquisition and analyze the two signals for variations as functions of time. Both sodium cell and interferometer are the same as those used to frequency tune the laser. By quantifying the frequency variations of the laser during data acquisition, an error analysis of temperature and wind measurements can be calculated. These error bounds determine the confidence in the calculated temperatures and wind velocities.

Information systems and human error in the lab.

PubMed

Bissell, Michael G

2004-01-01

Health system costs in clinical laboratories are incurred daily due to human error. Indeed, a major impetus for automating clinical laboratories has always been the opportunity it presents to simultaneously reduce cost and improve quality of operations by decreasing human error. But merely automating these processes is not enough. To the extent that introduction of these systems results in operators having less practice in dealing with unexpected events or becoming deskilled in problemsolving, however new kinds of error will likely appear. Clinical laboratories could potentially benefit by integrating findings on human error from modern behavioral science into their operations. Fully understanding human error requires a deep understanding of human information processing and cognition. Predicting and preventing negative consequences requires application of this understanding to laboratory operations. Although the occurrence of a particular error at a particular instant cannot be absolutely prevented, human error rates can be reduced. The following principles are key: an understanding of the process of learning in relation to error; understanding the origin of errors since this knowledge can be used to reduce their occurrence; optimal systems should be forgiving to the operator by absorbing errors, at least for a time; although much is known by industrial psychologists about how to write operating procedures and instructions in ways that reduce the probability of error, this expertise is hardly ever put to use in the laboratory; and a feedback mechanism must be designed into the system that enables the operator to recognize in real time that an error has occurred.

Mean Expected Error in Prediction of Total Body Water: A True Accuracy Comparison between Bioimpedance Spectroscopy and Single Frequency Regression Equations

PubMed Central

Abtahi, Shirin; Abtahi, Farhad; Ellegård, Lars; Johannsson, Gudmundur; Bosaeus, Ingvar

2015-01-01

For several decades electrical bioimpedance (EBI) has been used to assess body fluid distribution and body composition. Despite the development of several different approaches for assessing total body water (TBW), it remains uncertain whether bioimpedance spectroscopic (BIS) approaches are more accurate than single frequency regression equations. The main objective of this study was to answer this question by calculating the expected accuracy of a single measurement for different EBI methods. The results of this study showed that all methods produced similarly high correlation and concordance coefficients, indicating good accuracy as a method. Even the limits of agreement produced from the Bland-Altman analysis indicated that the performance of single frequency, Sun's prediction equations, at population level was close to the performance of both BIS methods; however, when comparing the Mean Absolute Percentage Error value between the single frequency prediction equations and the BIS methods, a significant difference was obtained, indicating slightly better accuracy for the BIS methods. Despite the higher accuracy of BIS methods over 50 kHz prediction equations at both population and individual level, the magnitude of the improvement was small. Such slight improvement in accuracy of BIS methods is suggested insufficient to warrant their clinical use where the most accurate predictions of TBW are required, for example, when assessing over-fluidic status on dialysis. To reach expected errors below 4-5%, novel and individualized approaches must be developed to improve the accuracy of bioimpedance-based methods for the advent of innovative personalized health monitoring applications. PMID:26137489

A comparative study on improved Arrhenius-type and artificial neural network models to predict high-temperature flow behaviors in 20MnNiMo alloy.

PubMed

Quan, Guo-zheng; Yu, Chun-tang; Liu, Ying-ying; Xia, Yu-feng

2014-01-01

The stress-strain data of 20MnNiMo alloy were collected from a series of hot compressions on Gleeble-1500 thermal-mechanical simulator in the temperature range of 1173 ∼ 1473 K and strain rate range of 0.01 ∼ 10 s(-1). Based on the experimental data, the improved Arrhenius-type constitutive model and the artificial neural network (ANN) model were established to predict the high temperature flow stress of as-cast 20MnNiMo alloy. The accuracy and reliability of the improved Arrhenius-type model and the trained ANN model were further evaluated in terms of the correlation coefficient (R), the average absolute relative error (AARE), and the relative error (η). For the former, R and AARE were found to be 0.9954 and 5.26%, respectively, while, for the latter, 0.9997 and 1.02%, respectively. The relative errors (η) of the improved Arrhenius-type model and the ANN model were, respectively, in the range of -39.99% ∼ 35.05% and -3.77% ∼ 16.74%. As for the former, only 16.3% of the test data set possesses η-values within ± 1%, while, as for the latter, more than 79% possesses. The results indicate that the ANN model presents a higher predictable ability than the improved Arrhenius-type constitutive model.

Estimation of Human Body Volume (BV) from Anthropometric Measurements Based on Three-Dimensional (3D) Scan Technique.

PubMed

Liu, Xingguo; Niu, Jianwei; Ran, Linghua; Liu, Taijie

2017-08-01

This study aimed to develop estimation formulae for the total human body volume (BV) of adult males using anthropometric measurements based on a three-dimensional (3D) scanning technique. Noninvasive and reliable methods to predict the total BV from anthropometric measurements based on a 3D scan technique were addressed in detail. A regression analysis of BV based on four key measurements was conducted for approximately 160 adult male subjects. Eight total models of human BV show that the predicted results fitted by the regression models were highly correlated with the actual BV (p < 0.001). Two metrics, the mean value of the absolute difference between the actual and predicted BV (V error ) and the mean value of the ratio between V error and actual BV (RV error ), were calculated. The linear model based on human weight was recommended as the most optimal due to its simplicity and high efficiency. The proposed estimation formulae are valuable for estimating total body volume in circumstances in which traditional underwater weighing or air displacement plethysmography is not applicable or accessible. This journal requires that authors assign a level of evidence to each article. For a full description of these Evidence-Based Medicine ratings, please refer to the Table of Contents or the online Instructions to Authors www.springer.com/00266.

Stability of colloidal gold and determination of the Hamaker constant

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Demirci, S.; Enuestuen, B.V.; Turkevich, J.

1978-12-14

Previous computation of stability factors of colloidal gold from coagulation data was found to be in systematic error due to an underestimation of the particle concentration by electron microscopy. A new experimental technique was developed for determination of this concentration. Stability factors were recalculated from the previous data using the correct concentration. While most of the previously reported conclusions remain unchanged, the absolute rate of fast coagulation is found to agree with that predicted by the theory. A value of the Hamaker constant was determined from the corrected data.

Predicting Drug Concentration‐Time Profiles in Multiple CNS Compartments Using a Comprehensive Physiologically‐Based Pharmacokinetic Model

PubMed Central

Yamamoto, Yumi; Välitalo, Pyry A.; Huntjens, Dymphy R.; Proost, Johannes H.; Vermeulen, An; Krauwinkel, Walter; Beukers, Margot W.; van den Berg, Dirk‐Jan; Hartman, Robin; Wong, Yin Cheong; Danhof, Meindert; van Hasselt, John G. C.

2017-01-01

Drug development targeting the central nervous system (CNS) is challenging due to poor predictability of drug concentrations in various CNS compartments. We developed a generic physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for prediction of drug concentrations in physiologically relevant CNS compartments. System‐specific and drug‐specific model parameters were derived from literature and in silico predictions. The model was validated using detailed concentration‐time profiles from 10 drugs in rat plasma, brain extracellular fluid, 2 cerebrospinal fluid sites, and total brain tissue. These drugs, all small molecules, were selected to cover a wide range of physicochemical properties. The concentration‐time profiles for these drugs were adequately predicted across the CNS compartments (symmetric mean absolute percentage error for the model prediction was <91%). In conclusion, the developed PBPK model can be used to predict temporal concentration profiles of drugs in multiple relevant CNS compartments, which we consider valuable information for efficient CNS drug development. PMID:28891201

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ellefson, S; Department of Human Oncology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; Culberson, W

Purpose: Discrepancies in absolute dose values have been detected between the ViewRay treatment planning system and ArcCHECK readings when performing delivery quality assurance on the ViewRay system with the ArcCHECK-MR diode array (SunNuclear Corporation). In this work, we investigate whether these discrepancies are due to errors in the ViewRay planning and/or delivery system or due to errors in the ArcCHECK’s readings. Methods: Gamma analysis was performed on 19 ViewRay patient plans using the ArcCHECK. Frequency analysis on the dose differences was performed. To investigate whether discrepancies were due to measurement or delivery error, 10 diodes in low-gradient dose regions weremore » chosen to compare with ion chamber measurements in a PMMA phantom with the same size and shape as the ArcCHECK, provided by SunNuclear. The diodes chosen all had significant discrepancies in absolute dose values compared to the ViewRay TPS. Absolute doses to PMMA were compared between the ViewRay TPS calculations, ArcCHECK measurements, and measurements in the PMMA phantom. Results: Three of the 19 patient plans had 3%/3mm gamma passing rates less than 95%, and ten of the 19 plans had 2%/2mm passing rates less than 95%. Frequency analysis implied a non-random error process. Out of the 10 diode locations measured, ion chamber measurements were all within 2.2% error relative to the TPS and had a mean error of 1.2%. ArcCHECK measurements ranged from 4.5% to over 15% error relative to the TPS and had a mean error of 8.0%. Conclusion: The ArcCHECK performs well for quality assurance on the ViewRay under most circumstances. However, under certain conditions the absolute dose readings are significantly higher compared to the planned doses. As the ion chamber measurements consistently agree with the TPS, it can be concluded that the discrepancies are due to ArcCHECK measurement error and not TPS or delivery system error. This work was funded by the Bhudatt Paliwal Professorship and the University of Wisconsin Medical Radiation Research Center.« less

Verification of real-time WSA-ENLIL+Cone simulations of CME arrival-time at the CCMC from 2010 to 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wold, Alexandra M.; Mays, M. Leila; Taktakishvili, Aleksandre; Jian, Lan K.; Odstrcil, Dusan; MacNeice, Peter

2018-03-01

The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)-ENLIL+Cone model is used extensively in space weather operations world-wide to model coronal mass ejection (CME) propagation. As such, it is important to assess its performance. We present validation results of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model installed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) and executed in real-time by the CCMC space weather team. CCMC uses the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model to predict CME arrivals at NASA missions throughout the inner heliosphere. In this work we compare model predicted CME arrival-times to in situ interplanetary coronal mass ejection leading edge measurements at Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory-Ahead (STEREO-A), Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory-Behind (STEREO-B), and Earth (Wind and ACE) for simulations completed between March 2010 and December 2016 (over 1,800 CMEs). We report hit, miss, false alarm, and correct rejection statistics for all three locations. For all predicted CME arrivals, the hit rate is 0.5, and the false alarm rate is 0.1. For the 273 events where the CME was predicted to arrive at Earth, STEREO-A, or STEREO-B, and was actually observed (hit event), the mean absolute arrival-time prediction error was 10.4 ± 0.9 h, with a tendency to early prediction error of -4.0 h. We show the dependence of the arrival-time error on CME input parameters. We also explore the impact of the multi-spacecraft observations used to initialize the model CME inputs by comparing model verification results before and after the STEREO-B communication loss (since September 2014) and STEREO-A sidelobe operations (August 2014-December 2015). There is an increase of 1.7 h in the CME arrival time error during single, or limited two-viewpoint periods, compared to the three-spacecraft viewpoint period. This trend would apply to a future space weather mission at L5 or L4 as another coronagraph viewpoint to reduce CME arrival time errors compared to a single L1 viewpoint.

The First Attempt at Non-Linear in Silico Prediction of Sampling Rates for Polar Organic Chemical Integrative Samplers (POCIS)

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Modeling and prediction of polar organic chemical integrative sampler (POCIS) sampling rates (Rs) for 73 compounds using artificial neural networks (ANNs) is presented for the first time. Two models were constructed: the first was developed ab initio using a genetic algorithm (GSD-model) to shortlist 24 descriptors covering constitutional, topological, geometrical and physicochemical properties and the second model was adapted for Rs prediction from a previous chromatographic retention model (RTD-model). Mechanistic evaluation of descriptors showed that models did not require comprehensive a priori information to predict Rs. Average predicted errors for the verification and blind test sets were 0.03 ± 0.02 L d–1 (RTD-model) and 0.03 ± 0.03 L d–1 (GSD-model) relative to experimentally determined Rs. Prediction variability in replicated models was the same or less than for measured Rs. Networks were externally validated using a measured Rs data set of six benzodiazepines. The RTD-model performed best in comparison to the GSD-model for these compounds (average absolute errors of 0.0145 ± 0.008 L d–1 and 0.0437 ± 0.02 L d–1, respectively). Improvements to generalizability of modeling approaches will be reliant on the need for standardized guidelines for Rs measurement. The use of in silico tools for Rs determination represents a more economical approach than laboratory calibrations. PMID:27363449

Stochastic modelling of infectious diseases for heterogeneous populations.

PubMed

Ming, Rui-Xing; Liu, Ji-Ming; W Cheung, William K; Wan, Xiang

2016-12-22

Infectious diseases such as SARS and H1N1 can significantly impact people's lives and cause severe social and economic damages. Recent outbreaks have stressed the urgency of effective research on the dynamics of infectious disease spread. However, it is difficult to predict when and where outbreaks may emerge and how infectious diseases spread because many factors affect their transmission, and some of them may be unknown. One feasible means to promptly detect an outbreak and track the progress of disease spread is to implement surveillance systems in regional or national health and medical centres. The accumulated surveillance data, including temporal, spatial, clinical, and demographic information can provide valuable information that can be exploited to better understand and model the dynamics of infectious disease spread. The aim of this work is to develop and empirically evaluate a stochastic model that allows the investigation of transmission patterns of infectious diseases in heterogeneous populations. We test the proposed model on simulation data and apply it to the surveillance data from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Hong Kong. In the simulation experiment, our model achieves high accuracy in parameter estimation (less than 10.0 % mean absolute percentage error). In terms of the forward prediction of case incidence, the mean absolute percentage errors are 17.3 % for the simulation experiment and 20.0 % for the experiment on the real surveillance data. We propose a stochastic model to study the dynamics of infectious disease spread in heterogeneous populations from temporal-spatial surveillance data. The proposed model is evaluated using both simulated data and the real data from the 2009 H1N1 epidemic in Hong Kong and achieves acceptable prediction accuracy. We believe that our model can provide valuable insights for public health authorities to predict the effect of disease spread and analyse its underlying factors and to guide new control efforts.

Bayesian dynamic modeling of time series of dengue disease case counts

PubMed Central

López-Quílez, Antonio; Torres-Prieto, Alexander

2017-01-01

The aim of this study is to model the association between weekly time series of dengue case counts and meteorological variables, in a high-incidence city of Colombia, applying Bayesian hierarchical dynamic generalized linear models over the period January 2008 to August 2015. Additionally, we evaluate the model’s short-term performance for predicting dengue cases. The methodology shows dynamic Poisson log link models including constant or time-varying coefficients for the meteorological variables. Calendar effects were modeled using constant or first- or second-order random walk time-varying coefficients. The meteorological variables were modeled using constant coefficients and first-order random walk time-varying coefficients. We applied Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations for parameter estimation, and deviance information criterion statistic (DIC) for model selection. We assessed the short-term predictive performance of the selected final model, at several time points within the study period using the mean absolute percentage error. The results showed the best model including first-order random walk time-varying coefficients for calendar trend and first-order random walk time-varying coefficients for the meteorological variables. Besides the computational challenges, interpreting the results implies a complete analysis of the time series of dengue with respect to the parameter estimates of the meteorological effects. We found small values of the mean absolute percentage errors at one or two weeks out-of-sample predictions for most prediction points, associated with low volatility periods in the dengue counts. We discuss the advantages and limitations of the dynamic Poisson models for studying the association between time series of dengue disease and meteorological variables. The key conclusion of the study is that dynamic Poisson models account for the dynamic nature of the variables involved in the modeling of time series of dengue disease, producing useful models for decision-making in public health. PMID:28671941

[Comparison of three stand-level biomass estimation methods].

PubMed

Dong, Li Hu; Li, Feng Ri

2016-12-01

At present, the forest biomass methods of regional scale attract most of attention of the researchers, and developing the stand-level biomass model is popular. Based on the forestry inventory data of larch plantation (Larix olgensis) in Jilin Province, we used non-linear seemly unrelated regression (NSUR) to estimate the parameters in two additive system of stand-level biomass equations, i.e., stand-level biomass equations including the stand variables and stand biomass equations including the biomass expansion factor (i.e., Model system 1 and Model system 2), listed the constant biomass expansion factor for larch plantation and compared the prediction accuracy of three stand-level biomass estimation methods. The results indicated that for two additive system of biomass equations, the adjusted coefficient of determination (R a 2 ) of the total and stem equations was more than 0.95, the root mean squared error (RMSE), the mean prediction error (MPE) and the mean absolute error (MAE) were smaller. The branch and foliage biomass equations were worse than total and stem biomass equations, and the adjusted coefficient of determination (R a 2 ) was less than 0.95. The prediction accuracy of a constant biomass expansion factor was relatively lower than the prediction accuracy of Model system 1 and Model system 2. Overall, although stand-level biomass equation including the biomass expansion factor belonged to the volume-derived biomass estimation method, and was different from the stand biomass equations including stand variables in essence, but the obtained prediction accuracy of the two methods was similar. The constant biomass expansion factor had the lower prediction accuracy, and was inappropriate. In addition, in order to make the model parameter estimation more effective, the established stand-level biomass equations should consider the additivity in a system of all tree component biomass and total biomass equations.

HHV Predicting Correlations for Torrefied Biomass Using Proximate and Ultimate Analyses

PubMed Central

Nhuchhen, Daya Ram; Afzal, Muhammad T.

2017-01-01

Many correlations are available in the literature to predict the higher heating value (HHV) of raw biomass using the proximate and ultimate analyses. Studies on biomass torrefaction are growing tremendously, which suggest that the fuel characteristics, such as HHV, proximate analysis and ultimate analysis, have changed significantly after torrefaction. Such changes may cause high estimation errors if the existing HHV correlations were to be used in predicting the HHV of torrefied biomass. No study has been carried out so far to verify this. Therefore, this study seeks answers to the question: “Can the existing correlations be used to determine the HHV of the torrefied biomass”? To answer this, the existing HHV predicting correlations were tested using torrefied biomass data points. Estimation errors were found to be significantly high for the existing HHV correlations, and thus, they are not suitable for predicting the HHV of the torrefied biomass. New correlations were then developed using data points of torrefied biomass. The ranges of reported data for HHV, volatile matter (VM), fixed carbon (FC), ash (ASH), carbon (C), hydrogen (H) and oxygen (O) contents were 14.90 MJ/kg–33.30 MJ/kg, 13.30%–88.57%, 11.25%–82.74%, 0.08%–47.62%, 35.08%–86.28%, 0.53%–7.46% and 4.31%–44.70%, respectively. Correlations with the minimum mean absolute errors and having all components of proximate and ultimate analyses were selected for future use. The selected new correlations have a good accuracy of prediction when they are validated using another set of data (26 samples). Thus, these new and more accurate correlations can be useful in modeling different thermochemical processes, including combustion, pyrolysis and gasification processes of torrefied biomass. PMID:28952487

Systematic errors of EIT systems determined by easily-scalable resistive phantoms.

PubMed

Hahn, G; Just, A; Dittmar, J; Hellige, G

2008-06-01

We present a simple method to determine systematic errors that will occur in the measurements by EIT systems. The approach is based on very simple scalable resistive phantoms for EIT systems using a 16 electrode adjacent drive pattern. The output voltage of the phantoms is constant for all combinations of current injection and voltage measurements and the trans-impedance of each phantom is determined by only one component. It can be chosen independently from the input and output impedance, which can be set in order to simulate measurements on the human thorax. Additional serial adapters allow investigation of the influence of the contact impedance at the electrodes on resulting errors. Since real errors depend on the dynamic properties of an EIT system, the following parameters are accessible: crosstalk, the absolute error of each driving/sensing channel and the signal to noise ratio in each channel. Measurements were performed on a Goe-MF II EIT system under four different simulated operational conditions. We found that systematic measurement errors always exceeded the error level of stochastic noise since the Goe-MF II system had been optimized for a sufficient signal to noise ratio but not for accuracy. In time difference imaging and functional EIT (f-EIT) systematic errors are reduced to a minimum by dividing the raw data by reference data. This is not the case in absolute EIT (a-EIT) where the resistivity of the examined object is determined on an absolute scale. We conclude that a reduction of systematic errors has to be one major goal in future system design.

MO-G-18C-05: Real-Time Prediction in Free-Breathing Perfusion MRI

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Song, H; Liu, W; Ruan, D

Purpose: The aim is to minimize frame-wise difference errors caused by respiratory motion and eliminate the need for breath-holds in magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) sequences with long acquisitions and repeat times (TRs). The technique is being applied to perfusion MRI using arterial spin labeling (ASL). Methods: Respiratory motion prediction (RMP) using navigator echoes was implemented in ASL. A least-square method was used to extract the respiratory motion information from the 1D navigator. A generalized artificial neutral network (ANN) with three layers was developed to simultaneously predict 10 time points forward in time and correct for respiratory motion during MRI acquisition.more » During the training phase, the parameters of the ANN were optimized to minimize the aggregated prediction error based on acquired navigator data. During realtime prediction, the trained ANN was applied to the most recent estimated displacement trajectory to determine in real-time the amount of spatial Results: The respiratory motion information extracted from the least-square method can accurately represent the navigator profiles, with a normalized chi-square value of 0.037±0.015 across the training phase. During the 60-second training phase, the ANN successfully learned the respiratory motion pattern from the navigator training data. During real-time prediction, the ANN received displacement estimates and predicted the motion in the continuum of a 1.0 s prediction window. The ANN prediction was able to provide corrections for different respiratory states (i.e., inhalation/exhalation) during real-time scanning with a mean absolute error of < 1.8 mm. Conclusion: A new technique enabling free-breathing acquisition during MRI is being developed. A generalized ANN development has demonstrated its efficacy in predicting a continuum of motion profile for volumetric imaging based on navigator inputs. Future work will enhance the robustness of ANN and verify its effectiveness with human subjects. Research supported by National Institutes of Health National Cancer Institute Grant R01 CA159471-01.« less

Optimized constants for an ultraviolet light-adjustable intraocular lens.

PubMed

Conrad-Hengerer, Ina; Dick, H Burkhard; Hütz, Werner W; Haigis, Wolfgang; Hengerer, Fritz H

2011-12-01

To determine the accuracy of intraocular lens (IOL) power calculations and to suggest adjusted constants for implantation of ultraviolet light-adjustable IOLs. Center for Vision Science, Ruhr University Eye Clinic, Bochum, Germany. Cohort study. Eyes with a visually significant cataract that had phacoemulsification with implantation of a light-adjustable IOL were evaluated. IOLMaster measurements were performed before phacoemulsification and IOL implantation and 4 weeks after surgery before the first adjustment of the IOL. The difference in the expected refraction and estimation error was studied. The study evaluated 125 eyes. Using the surgical constants provided by the manufacturer of the light-adjustable IOL, the SRK/T formula gave a more hyperopic refraction than the Hoffer Q and Holladay 1 formulas. The mean error of prediction was 0.93 diopter (D) ± 0.69 (SD), 0.91 ± 0.63 D, and 0.86 ± 0.65 D, respectively. The corresponding mean absolute error of prediction was 0.98 ± 0.61 D, 0.93 ± 0.61 D, and 0.90 ± 0.59 D, respectively. With optimized constants for the formulas, the mean error of prediction was 0.00 ± 0.63 D for Hoffer Q, 0.00 ± 0.64 D for Holladay 1, and 0.00 ± 0.66 D for SRK/T. The expected refraction after phacoemulsification and implantation of a light-adjustable IOL toward the hyperopic side of the desired refraction could be considered when using the optimized constants for all formulas. Copyright © 2011 ASCRS and ESCRS. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Drag-based Ensemble Model (DBEM) for Coronal Mass Ejection Propagation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dumbović, Mateja; Čalogović, Jaša; Vršnak, Bojan; Temmer, Manuela; Mays, M. Leila; Veronig, Astrid; Piantschitsch, Isabell

2018-02-01

The drag-based model for heliospheric propagation of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is a widely used analytical model that can predict CME arrival time and speed at a given heliospheric location. It is based on the assumption that the propagation of CMEs in interplanetary space is solely under the influence of magnetohydrodynamical drag, where CME propagation is determined based on CME initial properties as well as the properties of the ambient solar wind. We present an upgraded version, the drag-based ensemble model (DBEM), that covers ensemble modeling to produce a distribution of possible ICME arrival times and speeds. Multiple runs using uncertainty ranges for the input values can be performed in almost real-time, within a few minutes. This allows us to define the most likely ICME arrival times and speeds, quantify prediction uncertainties, and determine forecast confidence. The performance of the DBEM is evaluated and compared to that of ensemble WSA-ENLIL+Cone model (ENLIL) using the same sample of events. It is found that the mean error is ME = ‑9.7 hr, mean absolute error MAE = 14.3 hr, and root mean square error RMSE = 16.7 hr, which is somewhat higher than, but comparable to ENLIL errors (ME = ‑6.1 hr, MAE = 12.8 hr and RMSE = 14.4 hr). Overall, DBEM and ENLIL show a similar performance. Furthermore, we find that in both models fast CMEs are predicted to arrive earlier than observed, most likely owing to the physical limitations of models, but possibly also related to an overestimation of the CME initial speed for fast CMEs.

Study on model current predictive control method of PV grid- connected inverters systems with voltage sag

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, N.; Yang, F.; Shang, S. Y.; Tao, T.; Liu, J. S.

2016-08-01

According to the limitations of the LVRT technology of traditional photovoltaic inverter existed, this paper proposes a low voltage ride through (LVRT) control method based on model current predictive control (MCPC). This method can effectively improve the photovoltaic inverter output characteristics and response speed. The MCPC method of photovoltaic grid-connected inverter designed, the sum of the absolute value of the predictive current and the given current error is adopted as the cost function with the model predictive control method. According to the MCPC, the optimal space voltage vector is selected. Photovoltaic inverter has achieved automatically switches of priority active or reactive power control of two control modes according to the different operating states, which effectively improve the inverter capability of LVRT. The simulation and experimental results proves that the proposed method is correct and effective.

Relationship between postoperative refractive outcomes and cataract density: multiple regression analysis.

PubMed

Ueda, Tetsuo; Ikeda, Hitoe; Ota, Takeo; Matsuura, Toyoaki; Hara, Yoshiaki

2010-05-01

To evaluate the relationship between cataract density and the deviation from the predicted refraction. Department of Ophthalmology, Nara Medical University, Kashihara, Japan. Axial length (AL) was measured in eyes with mainly nuclear cataract using partial coherence interferometry (IOLMaster). The postoperative AL was measured in pseudophakic mode. The AL difference was calculated by subtracting the postoperative AL from the preoperative AL. Cataract density was measured with the pupil dilated using anterior segment Scheimpflug imaging (EAS-1000). The predicted postoperative refraction was calculated using the SRK/T formula. The subjective refraction 3 months postoperatively was also measured. The mean absolute prediction error (MAE) (mean of absolute difference between predicted postoperative refraction and spherical equivalent of postoperative subjective refraction) was calculated. The relationship between the MAE and cataract density, age, preoperative visual acuity, anterior chamber depth, corneal radius of curvature, and AL difference was evaluated using multiple regression analysis. In the 96 eyes evaluated, the MAE was correlated with cataract density (r = 0.37, P = .001) and the AL difference (r = 0.34, P = .003) but not with the other parameters. The AL difference was correlated with cataract density (r = 0.53, P<.0001). The postoperative refractive outcome was affected by cataract density. This should be taken into consideration in eyes with a higher density cataract. (c) 2010 ASCRS and ESCRS. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Measuring lanthanide concentrations in molten salt using laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS).

PubMed

Weisberg, Arel; Lakis, Rollin E; Simpson, Michael F; Horowitz, Leo; Craparo, Joseph

2014-01-01

The versatility of laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) as an analytical method for high-temperature applications was demonstrated through measurement of the concentrations of the lanthanide elements europium (Eu) and praseodymium (Pr) in molten eutectic lithium chloride-potassium chloride (LiCl-KCl) salts at a temperature of 500 °C. Laser pulses (1064 nm, 7 ns, 120 mJ/pulse) were focused on the top surface of the molten salt samples in a laboratory furnace under an argon atmosphere, and the resulting LIBS signals were collected using a broadband Echelle-type spectrometer. Partial least squares (PLS) regression using leave-one-sample-out cross-validation was used to quantify the concentrations of Eu and Pr in the samples. The root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) for Eu was 0.13% (absolute) over a concentration range of 0-3.01%, and for Pr was 0.13% (absolute) over a concentration range of 0-1.04%.

Estimating Inflows to Lake Okeechobee Using Climate Indices: A Machine Learning Modeling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalra, A.; Ahmad, S.

2008-12-01

The operation of regional water management systems that include lakes and storage reservoirs for flood control and water supply can be significantly improved by using climate indices. This research is focused on forecasting Lag 1 annual inflow to Lake Okeechobee, located in South Florida, using annual oceanic- atmospheric indices of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and El Nino-Southern Oscillations (ENSO). Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Least Square Support Vector Machine (LSSVM), belonging to the class of data driven models, are developed to forecast annual lake inflow using annual oceanic-atmospheric indices data from 1914 to 2003. The models were trained with 80 years of data and tested for 10 years of data. Based on Correlation Coefficient, Root Means Square Error, and Mean Absolute Error model predictions were in good agreement with measured inflow volumes. Sensitivity analysis, performed to evaluate the effect of individual and coupled oscillations, revealed a strong signal for AMO and ENSO indices compared to PDO and NAO indices for one year lead-time inflow forecast. Inflow predictions from the SVM models were better when compared with the predictions obtained from feed forward back propagation Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models.

Application of a Combined Model with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN) in Forecasting Hepatitis Incidence in Heng County, China

PubMed Central

Liang, Hao; Gao, Lian; Liang, Bingyu; Huang, Jiegang; Zang, Ning; Liao, Yanyan; Yu, Jun; Lai, Jingzhen; Qin, Fengxiang; Su, Jinming; Ye, Li; Chen, Hui

2016-01-01

Background Hepatitis is a serious public health problem with increasing cases and property damage in Heng County. It is necessary to develop a model to predict the hepatitis epidemic that could be useful for preventing this disease. Methods The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and the generalized regression neural network (GRNN) model were used to fit the incidence data from the Heng County CDC (Center for Disease Control and Prevention) from January 2005 to December 2012. Then, the ARIMA-GRNN hybrid model was developed. The incidence data from January 2013 to December 2013 were used to validate the models. Several parameters, including mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and mean square error (MSE), were used to compare the performance among the three models. Results The morbidity of hepatitis from Jan 2005 to Dec 2012 has seasonal variation and slightly rising trend. The ARIMA(0,1,2)(1,1,1)12 model was the most appropriate one with the residual test showing a white noise sequence. The smoothing factor of the basic GRNN model and the combined model was 1.8 and 0.07, respectively. The four parameters of the hybrid model were lower than those of the two single models in the validation. The parameters values of the GRNN model were the lowest in the fitting of the three models. Conclusions The hybrid ARIMA-GRNN model showed better hepatitis incidence forecasting in Heng County than the single ARIMA model and the basic GRNN model. It is a potential decision-supportive tool for controlling hepatitis in Heng County. PMID:27258555

Estimation of Fetal Weight during Labor: Still a Challenge.

PubMed

Barros, Joana Goulão; Reis, Inês; Pereira, Isabel; Clode, Nuno; Graça, Luís M

2016-01-01

To evaluate the accuracy of fetal weight prediction by ultrasonography labor employing a formula including the linear measurements of femur length (FL) and mid-thigh soft-tissue thickness (STT). We conducted a prospective study involving singleton uncomplicated term pregnancies within 48 hours of delivery. Only pregnancies with a cephalic fetus admitted in the labor ward for elective cesarean section, induction of labor or spontaneous labor were included. We excluded all non-Caucasian women, the ones previously diagnosed with gestational diabetes and the ones with evidence of ruptured membranes. Fetal weight estimates were calculated using a previously proposed formula [estimated fetal weight = 1687.47 + (54.1 x FL) + (76.68 x STT). The relationship between actual birth weight and estimated fetal weight was analyzed using Pearson's correlation. The formula's performance was assessed by calculating the signed and absolute errors. Mean weight difference and signed percentage error were calculated for birth weight divided into three subgroups: < 3000 g; 3000-4000 g; and > 4000 g. We included for analysis 145 cases and found a significant, yet low, linear relationship between birth weight and estimated fetal weight (p < 0.001; R2 = 0.197) with an absolute mean error of 10.6%. The lowest mean percentage error (0.3%) corresponded to the subgroup with birth weight between 3000 g and 4000 g. This study demonstrates a poor correlation between actual birth weight and the estimated fetal weight using a formula based on femur length and mid-thigh soft-tissue thickness, both linear parameters. Although avoidance of circumferential ultrasound measurements might prove to be beneficial, it is still yet to be found a fetal estimation formula that can be both accurate and simple to perform.

Comparison of Repeatability and Agreement between Swept-Source Optical Biometry and Dual-Scheimpflug Topography.

PubMed

Jung, Soyeon; Chin, Hee Seung; Kim, Na Rae; Lee, Kang Won; Jung, Ji Won

2017-01-01

To assess the repeatability and agreement of parameters obtained with two biometers and to compare the predictability. Biometry was performed on 101 eyes with cataract using the IOLMaster 700 and the Galilei G6. Three measurements were obtained per eye with each device, and repeatability was evaluated. The axial length (AL), anterior chamber depth (ACD), keratometry (K), white-to-white (WTW) corneal diameter, central corneal thickness (CCT), and lens thickness (LT) were measured and postoperative predictability was compared. Measurements could not be obtained with the IOLMaster 700 in one eye and in seven eyes with the Galilei G6 due to dense cataract. Both the IOLMaster 700 and Galilei G6 showed good repeatability, although the IOLMaster 700 showed better repeatability than the Galilei G6. There were no statistically significant differences in AL, ACD, steepest K, WTW, and LT ( P > 0.050), although flattest K, mean K, and CCT differed ( P < 0.050). The proportion of eyes with an absolute prediction error within 0.5 D was 85.0% for the IOLMaster 700 and was 80.0% for the Galilei G6 based on the SRK/T formula. Two biometers showed high repeatability and relatively good agreements. The swept-source optical biometer demonstrated better repeatability, penetration, and an overall lower prediction error.

A prediction model based on artificial neural network for surface temperature simulation of nickel-metal hydride battery during charging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Kaizheng; Mu, Daobin; Chen, Shi; Wu, Borong; Wu, Feng

2012-06-01

In this study, a prediction model based on artificial neural network is constructed for surface temperature simulation of nickel-metal hydride battery. The model is developed from a back-propagation network which is trained by Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm. Under each ambient temperature of 10 °C, 20 °C, 30 °C and 40 °C, an 8 Ah cylindrical Ni-MH battery is charged in the rate of 1 C, 3 C and 5 C to its SOC of 110% in order to provide data for the model training. Linear regression method is adopted to check the quality of the model training, as well as mean square error and absolute error. It is shown that the constructed model is of excellent training quality for the guarantee of prediction accuracy. The surface temperature of battery during charging is predicted under various ambient temperatures of 50 °C, 60 °C, 70 °C by the model. The results are validated in good agreement with experimental data. The value of battery surface temperature is calculated to exceed 90 °C under the ambient temperature of 60 °C if it is overcharged in 5 C, which might cause battery safety issues.

Quantitative prediction of ionization effect on human skin permeability.

PubMed

Baba, Hiromi; Ueno, Yusuke; Hashida, Mitsuru; Yamashita, Fumiyoshi

2017-04-30

Although skin permeability of an active ingredient can be severely affected by its ionization in a dose solution, most of the existing prediction models cannot predict such impacts. To provide reliable predictors, we curated a novel large dataset of in vitro human skin permeability coefficients for 322 entries comprising chemically diverse permeants whose ionization fractions can be calculated. Subsequently, we generated thousands of computational descriptors, including LogD (octanol-water distribution coefficient at a specific pH), and analyzed the dataset using nonlinear support vector regression (SVR) and Gaussian process regression (GPR) combined with greedy descriptor selection. The SVR model was slightly superior to the GPR model, with externally validated squared correlation coefficient, root mean square error, and mean absolute error values of 0.94, 0.29, and 0.21, respectively. These models indicate that Log D is effective for a comprehensive prediction of ionization effects on skin permeability. In addition, the proposed models satisfied the statistical criteria endorsed in recent model validation studies. These models can evaluate virtually generated compounds at any pH; therefore, they can be used for high-throughput evaluations of numerous active ingredients and optimization of their skin permeability with respect to permeant ionization. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prediction of the Reference Evapotranspiration Using a Chaotic Approach

PubMed Central

Wang, Wei-guang; Zou, Shan; Luo, Zhao-hui; Zhang, Wei; Kong, Jun

2014-01-01

Evapotranspiration is one of the most important hydrological variables in the context of water resources management. An attempt was made to understand and predict the dynamics of reference evapotranspiration from a nonlinear dynamical perspective in this study. The reference evapotranspiration data was calculated using the FAO Penman-Monteith equation with the observed daily meteorological data for the period 1966–2005 at four meteorological stations (i.e., Baotou, Zhangbei, Kaifeng, and Shaoguan) representing a wide range of climatic conditions of China. The correlation dimension method was employed to investigate the chaotic behavior of the reference evapotranspiration series. The existence of chaos in the reference evapotranspiration series at the four different locations was proved by the finite and low correlation dimension. A local approximation approach was employed to forecast the daily reference evapotranspiration series. Low root mean square error (RSME) and mean absolute error (MAE) (for all locations lower than 0.31 and 0.24, resp.), high correlation coefficient (CC), and modified coefficient of efficiency (for all locations larger than 0.97 and 0.8, resp.) indicate that the predicted reference evapotranspiration agrees well with the observed one. The encouraging results indicate the suitableness of chaotic approach for understanding and predicting the dynamics of the reference evapotranspiration. PMID:25133221

A Study of the Groundwater Level Spatial Variability in the Messara Valley of Crete

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varouchakis, E. A.; Hristopulos, D. T.; Karatzas, G. P.

2009-04-01

The island of Crete (Greece) has a dry sub-humid climate and marginal groundwater resources, which are extensively used for agricultural activities and human consumption. The Messara valley is located in the south of the Heraklion prefecture, it covers an area of 398 km2, and it is the largest and most productive valley of the island. Over-exploitation during the past thirty (30) years has led to a dramatic decrease of thirty five (35) meters in the groundwater level. Possible future climatic changes in the Mediterranean region, potential desertification, population increase, and extensive agricultural activity generate concern over the sustainability of the water resources of the area. The accurate estimation of the water table depth is important for an integrated groundwater resource management plan. This study focuses on the Mires basin of the Messara valley for reasons of hydro-geological data availability and geological homogeneity. The research goal is to model and map the spatial variability of the basin's groundwater level accurately. The data used in this study consist of seventy (70) piezometric head measurements for the hydrological year 2001-2002. These are unevenly distributed and mostly concentrated along a temporary river that crosses the basin. The range of piezometric heads varies from an extreme low value of 9.4 meters above sea level (masl) to 62 masl, for the wet period of the year (October to April). An initial goal of the study is to develop spatial models for the accurate generation of static maps of groundwater level. At a second stage, these maps should extend the models to dynamic (space-time) situations for the prediction of future water levels. Preliminary data analysis shows that the piezometric head variations are not normally distributed. Several methods including Box-Cox transformation and a modified version of it, transgaussian Kriging, and Gaussian anamorphosis have been used to obtain a spatial model for the piezometric head. A trend model was constructed that accounted for the distance of the wells from the river bed. The spatial dependence of the fluctuations was studied by fitting isotropic and anisotropic empirical variograms with classical models, the Matérn model and the Spartan variogram family (Hristopulos, 2003; Hristopoulos and Elogne, 2007). The most accurate results, mean absolute prediction error of 4.57 masl, were obtained using the modified Box-Cox transform of the original data. The exponential and the isotropic Spartan variograms provided the best fits to the experimental variogram. Using Ordinary Kriging with either variogram function gave a mean absolute estimation error of 4.57 masl based on leave-one-out cross validation. The bias error of the predictions was calculated equal to -0.38 masl and the correlation coefficient of the predictions with respect of the original data equal to 0.8. The estimates located on the borders of the study domain presented a higher prediction error that varies from 8 to 14 masl due to the limited number of neighbor data. The maximum estimation error, observed at the extreme low value calculation, was 23 masl. The method of locally weighted regression (LWR), (NIST/SEMATECH 2009) was also investigated as an alternative approach for spatial modeling. The trend calculated from a second order LWR method showed a remarkable fit to the original data marked by a mean absolute estimation error of 4.4 masl. The bias prediction error was calculated equal to -0.16 masl and the correlation coefficient between predicted and original data equal to 0.88 masl. Higher estimation errors were found at the same locations and vary within the same range. The extreme low value calculation error has improved to 21 masl. Plans for future research include the incorporation of spatial anisotropy in the kriging algorithm, the investigation of kernel functions other than the tricube in LWR, as well as the use of locally adapted bandwidth values. Furthermore, pumping rates for fifty eight (58) of the seventy (70) wells are available display a correlation coefficient of -0.6 with the respective ground water levels. A Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of the area will provide additional information about the unsampled locations of the basin. The pumping rates and the DEM will be used as secondary information in a co-kriging approach, leading to more accurate estimation of the basin's water table. NIST/SEMATECH e-Handbook of Statitical Methods, http://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/, 12/01/09. D.T. Hristopulos, "Spartan Gibbs random field models for geostatistical applications," SIAM J. Scient. Comput., vol. 24, no. 6, pp. 2125-2162, 2003 D.T. Hristopulos and S. Elogne, "Analytic properties and covariance functions for a new class of generalized Gibbs random fields," IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON INFORMATION THEORY, vol. 53, no 12, pp. 4667-4679, 2007

Multi-model ensemble hydrologic prediction using Bayesian model averaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duan, Qingyun; Ajami, Newsha K.; Gao, Xiaogang; Sorooshian, Soroosh

2007-05-01

Multi-model ensemble strategy is a means to exploit the diversity of skillful predictions from different models. This paper studies the use of Bayesian model averaging (BMA) scheme to develop more skillful and reliable probabilistic hydrologic predictions from multiple competing predictions made by several hydrologic models. BMA is a statistical procedure that infers consensus predictions by weighing individual predictions based on their probabilistic likelihood measures, with the better performing predictions receiving higher weights than the worse performing ones. Furthermore, BMA provides a more reliable description of the total predictive uncertainty than the original ensemble, leading to a sharper and better calibrated probability density function (PDF) for the probabilistic predictions. In this study, a nine-member ensemble of hydrologic predictions was used to test and evaluate the BMA scheme. This ensemble was generated by calibrating three different hydrologic models using three distinct objective functions. These objective functions were chosen in a way that forces the models to capture certain aspects of the hydrograph well (e.g., peaks, mid-flows and low flows). Two sets of numerical experiments were carried out on three test basins in the US to explore the best way of using the BMA scheme. In the first set, a single set of BMA weights was computed to obtain BMA predictions, while the second set employed multiple sets of weights, with distinct sets corresponding to different flow intervals. In both sets, the streamflow values were transformed using Box-Cox transformation to ensure that the probability distribution of the prediction errors is approximately Gaussian. A split sample approach was used to obtain and validate the BMA predictions. The test results showed that BMA scheme has the advantage of generating more skillful and equally reliable probabilistic predictions than original ensemble. The performance of the expected BMA predictions in terms of daily root mean square error (DRMS) and daily absolute mean error (DABS) is generally superior to that of the best individual predictions. Furthermore, the BMA predictions employing multiple sets of weights are generally better than those using single set of weights.

Investigation of Non-Equilibrium Radiation for Earth Entry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brandis, Aaron; Johnston, Chris; Cruden, Brett

2016-01-01

This paper presents measurements and simulations of non-equilibrium shock layer radiation relevant to high-speed Earth entry data obtained in the NASA Ames Research Center's Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) facility. The experiments were aimed at measuring the spatially and spectrally resolved radiance at relevant entry conditions for both an approximate Earth atmosphere (79 N2 : 21 O2) as well as a more accurate composition featuring the trace species Ar and CO2 (78.08 N2 : 20.95 O2 : 0.04 CO2 : 0.93 Ar). The experiments were configured to target a wide range of conditions, of which shots from 8 to 11.5 km/s at 0.2 Torr (26.7 Pa) are examined in this paper. The non-equilibrium component was chosen to be the focus of this study as it can account for a significant percentage of the emitted radiation for Earth entry, and more importantly, non-equilibrium has traditionally been assigned a large uncertainty for vehicle design. The main goals of this study are to present the shock tube data in the form of a non-equilibrium metric, evaluate the level of agreement between the experiment and simulations, identify key discrepancies and to promote discussion about various aspects of modeling non-equilibrium radiating flows. Radiance profiles integrated over discreet wavelength regions, ranging from the VUV through to the NIR, were compared in order to maximize both the spectral coverage and the number of experiments that could be used in the analysis. A previously defined non-equilibrium metric has been used to allow comparisons with several shots and reveal trends in the data. Overall, LAURAHARA is shown to under-predict EAST by as much as 50 and over-predict by as much as 20 depending on the shock speed. DPLRNEQAIR is shown to under-predict EAST by as much as 40 and over-predict by as much as 12 depending on the shock speed. In terms of an upper bound estimate for the absolute error in wall-directed heat flux, at the lower speeds investigated in this paper, 8 to 9 km/s, even though there are some large relative differences, the absolute error in radiance will be less then 1 Wcm2. At the highest shock speed of 11 km/s, the error will be less than 20 W/ sq cm.

Wideband Arrhythmia-Insensitive-Rapid (AIR) Pulse Sequence for Cardiac T1 mapping without Image Artifacts induced by ICD

PubMed Central

Hong, KyungPyo; Jeong, Eun-Kee; Wall, T. Scott; Drakos, Stavros G.; Kim, Daniel

2015-01-01

Purpose To develop and evaluate a wideband arrhythmia-insensitive-rapid (AIR) pulse sequence for cardiac T1 mapping without image artifacts induced by implantable-cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD). Methods We developed a wideband AIR pulse sequence by incorporating a saturation pulse with wide frequency bandwidth (8.9 kHz), in order to achieve uniform T1 weighting in the heart with ICD. We tested the performance of original and “wideband” AIR cardiac T1 mapping pulse sequences in phantom and human experiments at 1.5T. Results In 5 phantoms representing native myocardium and blood and post-contrast blood/tissue T1 values, compared with the control T1 values measured with an inversion-recovery pulse sequence without ICD, T1 values measured with original AIR with ICD were considerably lower (absolute percent error >29%), whereas T1 values measured with wideband AIR with ICD were similar (absolute percent error <5%). Similarly, in 11 human subjects, compared with the control T1 values measured with original AIR without ICD, T1 measured with original AIR with ICD was significantly lower (absolute percent error >10.1%), whereas T1 measured with wideband AIR with ICD was similar (absolute percent error <2.0%). Conclusion This study demonstrates the feasibility of a wideband pulse sequence for cardiac T1 mapping without significant image artifacts induced by ICD. PMID:25975192

Absolute color scale for improved diagnostics with wavefront error mapping.

PubMed

Smolek, Michael K; Klyce, Stephen D

2007-11-01

Wavefront data are expressed in micrometers and referenced to the pupil plane, but current methods to map wavefront error lack standardization. Many use normalized or floating scales that may confuse the user by generating ambiguous, noisy, or varying information. An absolute scale that combines consistent clinical information with statistical relevance is needed for wavefront error mapping. The color contours should correspond better to current corneal topography standards to improve clinical interpretation. Retrospective analysis of wavefront error data. Historic ophthalmic medical records. Topographic modeling system topographical examinations of 120 corneas across 12 categories were used. Corneal wavefront error data in micrometers from each topography map were extracted at 8 Zernike polynomial orders and for 3 pupil diameters expressed in millimeters (3, 5, and 7 mm). Both total aberrations (orders 2 through 8) and higher-order aberrations (orders 3 through 8) were expressed in the form of frequency histograms to determine the working range of the scale across all categories. The standard deviation of the mean error of normal corneas determined the map contour resolution. Map colors were based on corneal topography color standards and on the ability to distinguish adjacent color contours through contrast. Higher-order and total wavefront error contour maps for different corneal conditions. An absolute color scale was produced that encompassed a range of +/-6.5 microm and a contour interval of 0.5 microm. All aberrations in the categorical database were plotted with no loss of clinical information necessary for classification. In the few instances where mapped information was beyond the range of the scale, the type and severity of aberration remained legible. When wavefront data are expressed in micrometers, this absolute scale facilitates the determination of the severity of aberrations present compared with a floating scale, particularly for distinguishing normal from abnormal levels of wavefront error. The new color palette makes it easier to identify disorders. The corneal mapping method can be extended to mapping whole eye wavefront errors. When refraction data are expressed in diopters, the previously published corneal topography scale is suggested.

Optimal dental age estimation practice in United Arab Emirates' children.

PubMed

Altalie, Salem; Thevissen, Patrick; Fieuws, Steffen; Willems, Guy

2014-03-01

The aim of the study was to detect whether the Willems model, developed on a Belgian reference sample, can be used for age estimations in United Arab Emirates (UAE) children. Furthermore, it was verified that if added third molars development information in children provided more accurate age predictions. On 1900 panoramic radiographs, the development of left mandibular permanent teeth (PT) and third molars (TM) was registered according the Demirjian and the Kohler technique, respectively. The PT data were used to verify the Willems model and to develop a UAE model and to verify it. Multiple regression models with PT, TM, and PT + TM scores as independent and age as dependent factor were developed. Comparing the verified Willems- and the UAE model revealed differences in mean error of -0.01 year, mean absolute error of 0.01 year and root mean squared error of 0.90 year. Neglectable overall decrease in RMSE was detected combining PM and TM developmental information. © 2013 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Detecting Lung and Colorectal Cancer Recurrence Using Structured Clinical/Administrative Data to Enable Outcomes Research and Population Health Management.

PubMed

Hassett, Michael J; Uno, Hajime; Cronin, Angel M; Carroll, Nikki M; Hornbrook, Mark C; Ritzwoller, Debra

2017-12-01

Recurrent cancer is common, costly, and lethal, yet we know little about it in community-based populations. Electronic health records and tumor registries contain vast amounts of data regarding community-based patients, but usually lack recurrence status. Existing algorithms that use structured data to detect recurrence have limitations. We developed algorithms to detect the presence and timing of recurrence after definitive therapy for stages I-III lung and colorectal cancer using 2 data sources that contain a widely available type of structured data (claims or electronic health record encounters) linked to gold-standard recurrence status: Medicare claims linked to the Cancer Care Outcomes Research and Surveillance study, and the Cancer Research Network Virtual Data Warehouse linked to registry data. Twelve potential indicators of recurrence were used to develop separate models for each cancer in each data source. Detection models maximized area under the ROC curve (AUC); timing models minimized average absolute error. Algorithms were compared by cancer type/data source, and contrasted with an existing binary detection rule. Detection model AUCs (>0.92) exceeded existing prediction rules. Timing models yielded absolute prediction errors that were small relative to follow-up time (<15%). Similar covariates were included in all detection and timing algorithms, though differences by cancer type and dataset challenged efforts to create 1 common algorithm for all scenarios. Valid and reliable detection of recurrence using big data is feasible. These tools will enable extensive, novel research on quality, effectiveness, and outcomes for lung and colorectal cancer patients and those who develop recurrence.

Automated time series forecasting for biosurveillance.

PubMed

Burkom, Howard S; Murphy, Sean Patrick; Shmueli, Galit

2007-09-30

For robust detection performance, traditional control chart monitoring for biosurveillance is based on input data free of trends, day-of-week effects, and other systematic behaviour. Time series forecasting methods may be used to remove this behaviour by subtracting forecasts from observations to form residuals for algorithmic input. We describe three forecast methods and compare their predictive accuracy on each of 16 authentic syndromic data streams. The methods are (1) a non-adaptive regression model using a long historical baseline, (2) an adaptive regression model with a shorter, sliding baseline, and (3) the Holt-Winters method for generalized exponential smoothing. Criteria for comparing the forecasts were the root-mean-square error, the median absolute per cent error (MedAPE), and the median absolute deviation. The median-based criteria showed best overall performance for the Holt-Winters method. The MedAPE measures over the 16 test series averaged 16.5, 11.6, and 9.7 for the non-adaptive regression, adaptive regression, and Holt-Winters methods, respectively. The non-adaptive regression forecasts were degraded by changes in the data behaviour in the fixed baseline period used to compute model coefficients. The mean-based criterion was less conclusive because of the effects of poor forecasts on a small number of calendar holidays. The Holt-Winters method was also most effective at removing serial autocorrelation, with most 1-day-lag autocorrelation coefficients below 0.15. The forecast methods were compared without tuning them to the behaviour of individual series. We achieved improved predictions with such tuning of the Holt-Winters method, but practical use of such improvements for routine surveillance will require reliable data classification methods.

Hierarchical modeling of molecular energies using a deep neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lubbers, Nicholas; Smith, Justin S.; Barros, Kipton

2018-06-01

We introduce the Hierarchically Interacting Particle Neural Network (HIP-NN) to model molecular properties from datasets of quantum calculations. Inspired by a many-body expansion, HIP-NN decomposes properties, such as energy, as a sum over hierarchical terms. These terms are generated from a neural network—a composition of many nonlinear transformations—acting on a representation of the molecule. HIP-NN achieves the state-of-the-art performance on a dataset of 131k ground state organic molecules and predicts energies with 0.26 kcal/mol mean absolute error. With minimal tuning, our model is also competitive on a dataset of molecular dynamics trajectories. In addition to enabling accurate energy predictions, the hierarchical structure of HIP-NN helps to identify regions of model uncertainty.

Estimating the physicochemical properties of polyhalogenated aromatic and aliphatic compounds using UPPER: part 1. Boiling point and melting point.

PubMed

Admire, Brittany; Lian, Bo; Yalkowsky, Samuel H

2015-01-01

The UPPER (Unified Physicochemical Property Estimation Relationships) model uses enthalpic and entropic parameters to estimate 20 biologically relevant properties of organic compounds. The model has been validated by Lian and Yalkowsky on a data set of 700 hydrocarbons. The aim of this work is to expand the UPPER model to estimate the boiling and melting points of polyhalogenated compounds. In this work, 19 new group descriptors are defined and used to predict the transition temperatures of an additional 1288 compounds. The boiling points of 808 and the melting points of 742 polyhalogenated compounds are predicted with average absolute errors of 13.56 K and 25.85 K, respectively. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Chinese time trade-off values for EQ-5D health states.

PubMed

Liu, Gordon G; Wu, Hongyan; Li, Minghui; Gao, Chen; Luo, Nan

2014-07-01

To generate a Chinese general population-based three-level EuroQol five-dimensios (EQ-5D-3L) social value set using the time trade-off method. The study sample was drawn from five cities in China: Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenyang, Chengdu, and Nanjing, using a quota sampling method. Utility values for a subset of 97 health states defined by the EQ-5D-3L descriptive system were directly elicited from the study sample using a modified Measurement and Valuation of Health protocol, with each respondent valuing 13 of the health states. The utility values for all 243 EQ-5D-3L health states were estimated on the basis of econometric models at both individual and aggregate levels. Various linear regression models using different model specifications were examined to determine the best model using predefined model selection criteria. The N3 model based on ordinary least square regression at the aggregate level yielded the best model fit, with a mean absolute error of 0.020, 7 and 0 states for which prediction errors were greater than 0.05 and 0.10, respectively, in absolute magnitude. This model passed tests for model misspecification (F = 2.7; P = 0.0509, Ramsey Regression Equation Specification Error Test), heteroskedasticity (χ(2) = 0.97; P = 0.3254, Breusch-Pagan/Cook-Weisberg test), and normality of the residuals (χ(2) = 1.285; P = 0.5259, Jarque-Bera test). The range of the predicted values (-0.149 to 0.887) was similar to those estimated in other countries. The study successfully developed Chinese utility values for EQ-5D-3L health states using the time trade-off method. It is the first attempt ever to develop a standardized instrument for quantifying quality-adjusted life-years in China. Copyright © 2014 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Automated estimation of abdominal effective diameter for body size normalization of CT dose.

PubMed

Cheng, Phillip M

2013-06-01

Most CT dose data aggregation methods do not currently adjust dose values for patient size. This work proposes a simple heuristic for reliably computing an effective diameter of a patient from an abdominal CT image. Evaluation of this method on 106 patients scanned on Philips Brilliance 64 and Brilliance Big Bore scanners demonstrates close correspondence between computed and manually measured patient effective diameters, with a mean absolute error of 1.0 cm (error range +2.2 to -0.4 cm). This level of correspondence was also demonstrated for 60 patients on Siemens, General Electric, and Toshiba scanners. A calculated effective diameter in the middle slice of an abdominal CT study was found to be a close approximation of the mean calculated effective diameter for the study, with a mean absolute error of approximately 1.0 cm (error range +3.5 to -2.2 cm). Furthermore, the mean absolute error for an adjusted mean volume computed tomography dose index (CTDIvol) using a mid-study calculated effective diameter, versus a mean per-slice adjusted CTDIvol based on the calculated effective diameter of each slice, was 0.59 mGy (error range 1.64 to -3.12 mGy). These results are used to calculate approximate normalized dose length product values in an abdominal CT dose database of 12,506 studies.

Predicting Coastal Flood Severity using Random Forest Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadler, J. M.; Goodall, J. L.; Morsy, M. M.; Spencer, K.

2017-12-01

Coastal floods have become more common recently and are predicted to further increase in frequency and severity due to sea level rise. Predicting floods in coastal cities can be difficult due to the number of environmental and geographic factors which can influence flooding events. Built stormwater infrastructure and irregular urban landscapes add further complexity. This paper demonstrates the use of machine learning algorithms in predicting street flood occurrence in an urban coastal setting. The model is trained and evaluated using data from Norfolk, Virginia USA from September 2010 - October 2016. Rainfall, tide levels, water table levels, and wind conditions are used as input variables. Street flooding reports made by city workers after named and unnamed storm events, ranging from 1-159 reports per event, are the model output. Results show that Random Forest provides predictive power in estimating the number of flood occurrences given a set of environmental conditions with an out-of-bag root mean squared error of 4.3 flood reports and a mean absolute error of 0.82 flood reports. The Random Forest algorithm performed much better than Poisson regression. From the Random Forest model, total daily rainfall was by far the most important factor in flood occurrence prediction, followed by daily low tide and daily higher high tide. The model demonstrated here could be used to predict flood severity based on forecast rainfall and tide conditions and could be further enhanced using more complete street flooding data for model training.

Limited sampling strategy models for estimating the AUC of gliclazide in Chinese healthy volunteers.

PubMed

Huang, Ji-Han; Wang, Kun; Huang, Xiao-Hui; He, Ying-Chun; Li, Lu-Jin; Sheng, Yu-Cheng; Yang, Juan; Zheng, Qing-Shan

2013-06-01

The aim of this work is to reduce the cost of required sampling for the estimation of the area under the gliclazide plasma concentration versus time curve within 60 h (AUC0-60t ). The limited sampling strategy (LSS) models were established and validated by the multiple regression model within 4 or fewer gliclazide concentration values. Absolute prediction error (APE), root of mean square error (RMSE) and visual prediction check were used as criterion. The results of Jack-Knife validation showed that 10 (25.0 %) of the 40 LSS based on the regression analysis were not within an APE of 15 % using one concentration-time point. 90.2, 91.5 and 92.4 % of the 40 LSS models were capable of prediction using 2, 3 and 4 points, respectively. Limited sampling strategies were developed and validated for estimating AUC0-60t of gliclazide. This study indicates that the implementation of an 80 mg dosage regimen enabled accurate predictions of AUC0-60t by the LSS model. This study shows that 12, 6, 4, 2 h after administration are the key sampling times. The combination of (12, 2 h), (12, 8, 2 h) or (12, 8, 4, 2 h) can be chosen as sampling hours for predicting AUC0-60t in practical application according to requirement.

[Application of R-based multiple seasonal ARIMA model, in predicting the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Shaanxi province].

PubMed

Liu, F; Zhu, N; Qiu, L; Wang, J J; Wang, W H

2016-08-10

To apply the ' auto-regressive integrated moving average product seasonal model' in predicting the number of hand, foot and mouth disease in Shaanxi province. In Shaanxi province, the trend of hand, foot and mouth disease was analyzed and tested, under the use of R software, between January 2009 and June 2015. Multiple seasonal ARIMA model was then fitted under time series to predict the number of hand, foot and mouth disease in 2016 and 2017. Seasonal effect was seen in hand, foot and mouth disease in Shaanxi province. A multiple seasonal ARIMA (2,1,0)×(1,1,0)12 was established, with the equation as (1 -B)(1 -B12)Ln (Xt) =((1-1.000B)/(1-0.532B-0.363B(2))*(1-0.644B12-0.454B12(2)))*Epsilont. The mean of absolute error and the relative error were 531.535 and 0.114, respectively when compared to the simulated number of patients from Jun to Dec in 2015. RESULTS under the prediction of multiple seasonal ARIMA model showed that the numbers of patients in both 2016 and 2017 were similar to that of 2015 in Shaanxi province. Multiple seasonal ARIMA (2,1,0)×(1,1,0)12 model could be used to successfully predict the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Shaanxi province.

Comparison of the Pentacam equivalent keratometry reading and IOL Master keratometry measurement in intraocular lens power calculations.

PubMed

Karunaratne, Nicholas

2013-12-01

To compare the accuracy of the Pentacam Holladay equivalent keratometry readings with the IOL Master 500 keratometry in calculating intraocular lens power. Non-randomized, prospective clinical study conducted in private practice. Forty-five consecutive normal patients undergoing cataract surgery. Forty-five consecutive patients had Pentacam equivalent keratometry readings at the 2-, 3 and 4.5-mm corneal zone and IOL Master keratometry measurements prior to cataract surgery. For each Pentacam equivalent keratometry reading zone and IOL Master measurement the difference between the observed and expected refractive error was calculated using the Holladay 2 and Sanders, Retzlaff and Kraff theoretic (SRKT) formulas. Mean keratometric value and mean absolute refractive error. There was a statistically significantly difference between the mean keratometric values of the IOL Master, Pentacam equivalent keratometry reading 2-, 3- and 4.5-mm measurements (P < 0.0001, analysis of variance). There was no statistically significant difference between the mean absolute refraction error for the IOL Master and equivalent keratometry readings 2 mm, 3 mm and 4.5 mm zones for either the Holladay 2 formula (P = 0.14) or SRKT formula (P = 0.47). The lowest mean absolute refraction error for Holladay 2 equivalent keratometry reading was the 4.5 mm zone (mean 0.25 D ± 0.17 D). The lowest mean absolute refraction error for SRKT equivalent keratometry reading was the 4.5 mm zone (mean 0.25 D ± 0.19 D). Comparing the absolute refraction error of IOL Master and Pentacam equivalent keratometry reading, best agreement was with Holladay 2 and equivalent keratometry reading 4.5 mm, with mean of the difference of 0.02 D and 95% limits of agreement of -0.35 and 0.39 D. The IOL Master keratometry and Pentacam equivalent keratometry reading were not equivalent when used only for corneal power measurements. However, the keratometry measurements of the IOL Master and Pentacam equivalent keratometry reading 4.5 mm may be similarly effective when used in intraocular lens power calculation formulas, following constant optimization. © 2013 Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Ophthalmologists.

Dosimetric Implications of Residual Tracking Errors During Robotic SBRT of Liver Metastases

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chan, Mark; Tuen Mun Hospital, Hong Kong; Grehn, Melanie

Purpose: Although the metric precision of robotic stereotactic body radiation therapy in the presence of breathing motion is widely known, we investigated the dosimetric implications of breathing phase–related residual tracking errors. Methods and Materials: In 24 patients (28 liver metastases) treated with the CyberKnife, we recorded the residual correlation, prediction, and rotational tracking errors from 90 fractions and binned them into 10 breathing phases. The average breathing phase errors were used to shift and rotate the clinical tumor volume (CTV) and planning target volume (PTV) for each phase to calculate a pseudo 4-dimensional error dose distribution for comparison with themore » original planned dose distribution. Results: The median systematic directional correlation, prediction, and absolute aggregate rotation errors were 0.3 mm (range, 0.1-1.3 mm), 0.01 mm (range, 0.00-0.05 mm), and 1.5° (range, 0.4°-2.7°), respectively. Dosimetrically, 44%, 81%, and 92% of all voxels differed by less than 1%, 3%, and 5% of the planned local dose, respectively. The median coverage reduction for the PTV was 1.1% (range in coverage difference, −7.8% to +0.8%), significantly depending on correlation (P=.026) and rotational (P=.005) error. With a 3-mm PTV margin, the median coverage change for the CTV was 0.0% (range, −1.0% to +5.4%), not significantly depending on any investigated parameter. In 42% of patients, the 3-mm margin did not fully compensate for the residual tracking errors, resulting in a CTV coverage reduction of 0.1% to 1.0%. Conclusions: For liver tumors treated with robotic stereotactic body radiation therapy, a safety margin of 3 mm is not always sufficient to cover all residual tracking errors. Dosimetrically, this translates into only small CTV coverage reductions.« less

Bed turbulent kinetic energy boundary conditions for trapping efficiency and spatial distribution of sediments in basins.

PubMed

Isenmann, Gilles; Dufresne, Matthieu; Vazquez, José; Mose, Robert

2017-10-01

The purpose of this study is to develop and validate a numerical tool for evaluating the performance of a settling basin regarding the trapping of suspended matter. The Euler-Lagrange approach was chosen to model the flow and sediment transport. The numerical model developed relies on the open source library OpenFOAM ® , enhanced with new particle/wall interaction conditions to limit sediment deposition in zones with favourable hydrodynamic conditions (shear stress, turbulent kinetic energy). In particular, a new relation is proposed for calculating the turbulent kinetic energy threshold as a function of the properties of each particle (diameter and density). The numerical model is compared to three experimental datasets taken from the literature and collected for scale models of basins. The comparison of the numerical and experimental results permits concluding on the model's capacity to predict the trapping of particles in a settling basin with an absolute error in the region of 5% when the sediment depositions occur over the entire bed. In the case of sediment depositions localised in preferential zones, their distribution is reproduced well by the model and trapping efficiency is evaluated with an absolute error in the region of 10% (excluding cases of particles with very low density).

Development of a Nonlinear Soft-Sensor Using a GMDH Network for a Refinery Crude Distillation Tower

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fujii, Kenzo; Yamamoto, Toru

In atmospheric distillation processes, the stabilization of processes is required in order to optimize the crude-oil composition that corresponds to product market conditions. However, the process control systems sometimes fall into unstable states in the case where unexpected disturbances are introduced, and these unusual phenomena have had an undesirable affect on certain products. Furthermore, a useful chemical engineering model has not yet been established for these phenomena. This remains a serious problem in the atmospheric distillation process. This paper describes a new modeling scheme to predict unusual phenomena in the atmospheric distillation process using the GMDH (Group Method of Data Handling) network which is one type of network model. According to the GMDH network, the model structure can be determined systematically. However, the least squares method has been commonly utilized in determining weight coefficients (model parameters). Estimation accuracy is not entirely expected, because the sum of squared errors between the measured values and estimates is evaluated. Therefore, instead of evaluating the sum of squared errors, the sum of absolute value of errors is introduced and the Levenberg-Marquardt method is employed in order to determine model parameters. The effectiveness of the proposed method is evaluated by the foaming prediction in the crude oil switching operation in the atmospheric distillation process.

Empirical tools for simulating salinity in the estuaries in Everglades National Park, Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marshall, F. E.; Smith, D. T.; Nickerson, D. M.

2011-12-01

Salinity in a shallow estuary is affected by upland freshwater inputs (surface runoff, stream/canal flows, groundwater), atmospheric processes (precipitation, evaporation), marine connectivity, and wind patterns. In Everglades National Park (ENP) in South Florida, the unique Everglades ecosystem exists as an interconnected system of fresh, brackish, and salt water marshes, mangroves, and open water. For this effort a coastal aquifer conceptual model of the Everglades hydrologic system was used with traditional correlation and regression hydrologic techniques to create a series of multiple linear regression (MLR) salinity models from observed hydrologic, marine, and weather data. The 37 ENP MLR salinity models cover most of the estuarine areas of ENP and produce daily salinity simulations that are capable of estimating 65-80% of the daily variability in salinity depending upon the model. The Root Mean Squared Error is typically about 2-4 salinity units, and there is little bias in the predictions. However, the absolute error of a model prediction in the nearshore embayments and the mangrove zone of Florida Bay may be relatively large for a particular daily simulation during the seasonal transitions. Comparisons show that the models group regionally by similar independent variables and salinity regimes. The MLR salinity models have approximately the same expected range of simulation accuracy and error as higher spatial resolution salinity models.

Gravity gradient preprocessing at the GOCE HPF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouman, J.; Rispens, S.; Gruber, T.; Schrama, E.; Visser, P.; Tscherning, C. C.; Veicherts, M.

2009-04-01

One of the products derived from the GOCE observations are the gravity gradients. These gravity gradients are provided in the Gradiometer Reference Frame (GRF) and are calibrated in-flight using satellite shaking and star sensor data. In order to use these gravity gradients for application in Earth sciences and gravity field analysis, additional pre-processing needs to be done, including corrections for temporal gravity field signals to isolate the static gravity field part, screening for outliers, calibration by comparison with existing external gravity field information and error assessment. The temporal gravity gradient corrections consist of tidal and non-tidal corrections. These are all generally below the gravity gradient error level, which is predicted to show a 1/f behaviour for low frequencies. In the outlier detection the 1/f error is compensated for by subtracting a local median from the data, while the data error is assessed using the median absolute deviation. The local median acts as a high-pass filter and it is robust as is the median absolute deviation. Three different methods have been implemented for the calibration of the gravity gradients. All three methods use a high-pass filter to compensate for the 1/f gravity gradient error. The baseline method uses state-of-the-art global gravity field models and the most accurate results are obtained if star sensor misalignments are estimated along with the calibration parameters. A second calibration method uses GOCE GPS data to estimate a low degree gravity field model as well as gravity gradient scale factors. Both methods allow to estimate gravity gradient scale factors down to the 10-3 level. The third calibration method uses high accurate terrestrial gravity data in selected regions to validate the gravity gradient scale factors, focussing on the measurement band. Gravity gradient scale factors may be estimated down to the 10-2 level with this method.

Preprocessing of gravity gradients at the GOCE high-level processing facility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouman, Johannes; Rispens, Sietse; Gruber, Thomas; Koop, Radboud; Schrama, Ernst; Visser, Pieter; Tscherning, Carl Christian; Veicherts, Martin

2009-07-01

One of the products derived from the gravity field and steady-state ocean circulation explorer (GOCE) observations are the gravity gradients. These gravity gradients are provided in the gradiometer reference frame (GRF) and are calibrated in-flight using satellite shaking and star sensor data. To use these gravity gradients for application in Earth scienes and gravity field analysis, additional preprocessing needs to be done, including corrections for temporal gravity field signals to isolate the static gravity field part, screening for outliers, calibration by comparison with existing external gravity field information and error assessment. The temporal gravity gradient corrections consist of tidal and nontidal corrections. These are all generally below the gravity gradient error level, which is predicted to show a 1/ f behaviour for low frequencies. In the outlier detection, the 1/ f error is compensated for by subtracting a local median from the data, while the data error is assessed using the median absolute deviation. The local median acts as a high-pass filter and it is robust as is the median absolute deviation. Three different methods have been implemented for the calibration of the gravity gradients. All three methods use a high-pass filter to compensate for the 1/ f gravity gradient error. The baseline method uses state-of-the-art global gravity field models and the most accurate results are obtained if star sensor misalignments are estimated along with the calibration parameters. A second calibration method uses GOCE GPS data to estimate a low-degree gravity field model as well as gravity gradient scale factors. Both methods allow to estimate gravity gradient scale factors down to the 10-3 level. The third calibration method uses high accurate terrestrial gravity data in selected regions to validate the gravity gradient scale factors, focussing on the measurement band. Gravity gradient scale factors may be estimated down to the 10-2 level with this method.

Comparison of propofol pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models for awake craniotomy: A prospective observational study.

PubMed

Soehle, Martin; Wolf, Christina F; Priston, Melanie J; Neuloh, Georg; Bien, Christian G; Hoeft, Andreas; Ellerkmann, Richard K

2015-08-01

Anaesthesia for awake craniotomy aims for an unconscious patient at the beginning and end of surgery but a rapidly awakening and responsive patient during the awake period. Therefore, an accurate pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) model for propofol is required to tailor depth of anaesthesia. To compare the predictive performances of the Marsh and the Schnider PK/PD models during awake craniotomy. A prospective observational study. Single university hospital from February 2009 to May 2010. Twelve patients undergoing elective awake craniotomy for resection of brain tumour or epileptogenic areas. Arterial blood samples were drawn at intervals and the propofol plasma concentration was determined. The prediction error, bias [median prediction error (MDPE)] and inaccuracy [median absolute prediction error (MDAPE)] of the Marsh and the Schnider models were calculated. The secondary endpoint was the prediction probability PK, by which changes in the propofol effect-site concentration (as derived from simultaneous PK/PD modelling) predicted changes in anaesthetic depth (measured by the bispectral index). The Marsh model was associated with a significantly (P = 0.05) higher inaccuracy (MDAPE 28.9 ± 12.0%) than the Schnider model (MDAPE 21.5 ± 7.7%) and tended to reach a higher bias (MDPE Marsh -11.7 ± 14.3%, MDPE Schnider -5.4 ± 20.7%, P = 0.09). MDAPE was outside of accepted limits in six (Marsh model) and two (Schnider model) of 12 patients. The prediction probability was comparable between the Marsh (PK 0.798 ± 0.056) and the Schnider model (PK 0.787 ± 0.055), but after adjusting the models to each individual patient, the Schnider model achieved significantly higher prediction probabilities (PK 0.807 ± 0.056, P = 0.05). When using the 'asleep-awake-asleep' anaesthetic technique during awake craniotomy, we advocate using the PK/PD model proposed by Schnider. Due to considerable interindividual variation, additional monitoring of anaesthetic depth is recommended. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT 01128465.

Models for estimating daily rainfall erosivity in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Yun; Yin, Shui-qing; Liu, Bao-yuan; Nearing, Mark A.; Zhao, Ying

2016-04-01

The rainfall erosivity factor (R) represents the multiplication of rainfall energy and maximum 30 min intensity by event (EI30) and year. This rainfall erosivity index is widely used for empirical soil loss prediction. Its calculation, however, requires high temporal resolution rainfall data that are not readily available in many parts of the world. The purpose of this study was to parameterize models suitable for estimating erosivity from daily rainfall data, which are more widely available. One-minute resolution rainfall data recorded in sixteen stations over the eastern water erosion impacted regions of China were analyzed. The R-factor ranged from 781.9 to 8258.5 MJ mm ha-1 h-1 y-1. A total of 5942 erosive events from one-minute resolution rainfall data of ten stations were used to parameterize three models, and 4949 erosive events from the other six stations were used for validation. A threshold of daily rainfall between days classified as erosive and non-erosive was suggested to be 9.7 mm based on these data. Two of the models (I and II) used power law functions that required only daily rainfall totals. Model I used different model coefficients in the cool season (Oct.-Apr.) and warm season (May-Sept.), and Model II was fitted with a sinusoidal curve of seasonal variation. Both Model I and Model II estimated the erosivity index for average annual, yearly, and half-month temporal scales reasonably well, with the symmetric mean absolute percentage error MAPEsym ranging from 10.8% to 32.1%. Model II predicted slightly better than Model I. However, the prediction efficiency for the daily erosivity index was limited, with the symmetric mean absolute percentage error being 68.0% (Model I) and 65.7% (Model II) and Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency being 0.55 (Model I) and 0.57 (Model II). Model III, which used the combination of daily rainfall amount and daily maximum 60-min rainfall, improved predictions significantly, and produced a Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency for daily erosivity index prediction of 0.93. Thus daily rainfall data was generally sufficient for estimating annual average, yearly, and half-monthly time scales, while sub-daily data was needed when estimating daily erosivity values.

Exploiting data representation for fault tolerance

DOE PAGES

Hoemmen, Mark Frederick; Elliott, J.; Sandia National Lab.; ...

2015-01-06

Incorrect computer hardware behavior may corrupt intermediate computations in numerical algorithms, possibly resulting in incorrect answers. Prior work models misbehaving hardware by randomly flipping bits in memory. We start by accepting this premise, and present an analytic model for the error introduced by a bit flip in an IEEE 754 floating-point number. We then relate this finding to the linear algebra concepts of normalization and matrix equilibration. In particular, we present a case study illustrating that normalizing both vector inputs of a dot product minimizes the probability of a single bit flip causing a large error in the dot product'smore » result. Moreover, the absolute error is either less than one or very large, which allows detection of large errors. Then, we apply this to the GMRES iterative solver. We count all possible errors that can be introduced through faults in arithmetic in the computationally intensive orthogonalization phase of GMRES, and show that when the matrix is equilibrated, the absolute error is bounded above by one.« less

Monthly prediction of air temperature in Australia and New Zealand with machine learning algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salcedo-Sanz, S.; Deo, R. C.; Carro-Calvo, L.; Saavedra-Moreno, B.

2016-07-01

Long-term air temperature prediction is of major importance in a large number of applications, including climate-related studies, energy, agricultural, or medical. This paper examines the performance of two Machine Learning algorithms (Support Vector Regression (SVR) and Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP)) in a problem of monthly mean air temperature prediction, from the previous measured values in observational stations of Australia and New Zealand, and climate indices of importance in the region. The performance of the two considered algorithms is discussed in the paper and compared to alternative approaches. The results indicate that the SVR algorithm is able to obtain the best prediction performance among all the algorithms compared in the paper. Moreover, the results obtained have shown that the mean absolute error made by the two algorithms considered is significantly larger for the last 20 years than in the previous decades, in what can be interpreted as a change in the relationship among the prediction variables involved in the training of the algorithms.

A Prediction Model for Functional Outcomes in Spinal Cord Disorder Patients Using Gaussian Process Regression.

PubMed

Lee, Sunghoon Ivan; Mortazavi, Bobak; Hoffman, Haydn A; Lu, Derek S; Li, Charles; Paak, Brian H; Garst, Jordan H; Razaghy, Mehrdad; Espinal, Marie; Park, Eunjeong; Lu, Daniel C; Sarrafzadeh, Majid

2016-01-01

Predicting the functional outcomes of spinal cord disorder patients after medical treatments, such as a surgical operation, has always been of great interest. Accurate posttreatment prediction is especially beneficial for clinicians, patients, care givers, and therapists. This paper introduces a prediction method for postoperative functional outcomes by a novel use of Gaussian process regression. The proposed method specifically considers the restricted value range of the target variables by modeling the Gaussian process based on a truncated Normal distribution, which significantly improves the prediction results. The prediction has been made in assistance with target tracking examinations using a highly portable and inexpensive handgrip device, which greatly contributes to the prediction performance. The proposed method has been validated through a dataset collected from a clinical cohort pilot involving 15 patients with cervical spinal cord disorder. The results show that the proposed method can accurately predict postoperative functional outcomes, Oswestry disability index and target tracking scores, based on the patient's preoperative information with a mean absolute error of 0.079 and 0.014 (out of 1.0), respectively.

Age, body mass, and gender as predictors of masters olympic weightlifting performance.

PubMed

Thé, Dwight J; Ploutz-Snyder, Lori

2003-07-01

The purpose of this study was to examine previously collected performance scores from the 2000 World Masters Weightlifting Championships to 1). determine the extent to which age and body mass are related to and predictive of indirect estimates of absolute and relative muscular power, and 2). assess possible gender differences in these associations. Dependent variables were absolute load (ABS = heaviest snatch [kg] + heaviest clean and jerk [kg]) and relative load (REL = ABS [kg]/body mass [kg]), representing indirect estimates of absolute and relative muscular power, respectively. Predictor variables were age (yr) and body mass (kg). Linear regression and various diagnostic procedures were used to analyze the data. The linear model provided an adequate fit for the data because no departures from the usual assumptions of normally distributed variables and homoscedastic error variance were observed. All predictor variables were significantly (P < 0.05) predictive of the dependent variables, but the magnitude of associations (e.g., R(ABS|BM) = 0.18 among females vs R(ABS|BM) = 0.57 among males) and extent of predictive ability (e.g., R(adj)2 for regression of ABS on age and body mass was 0.18-0.58 among females vs 0.74-0.83 among males) were significantly (P < 0.05) higher among males versus females. The extent to which age and body mass explain differences in muscular power differs between female and male masters weightlifters, but the rate of decline (%.yr-1) in power with advancing age is similar and is in agreement with previous reports for world record holders, other masters athletes, and healthy, untrained individuals, suggesting the importance of the aging process itself over physical activity history.

Optimization of Stripping Voltammetric Sensor by a Back Propagation Artificial Neural Network for the Accurate Determination of Pb(II) in the Presence of Cd(II).

PubMed

Zhao, Guo; Wang, Hui; Liu, Gang; Wang, Zhiqiang

2016-09-21

An easy, but effective, method has been proposed to detect and quantify the Pb(II) in the presence of Cd(II) based on a Bi/glassy carbon electrode (Bi/GCE) with the combination of a back propagation artificial neural network (BP-ANN) and square wave anodic stripping voltammetry (SWASV) without further electrode modification. The effects of Cd(II) in different concentrations on stripping responses of Pb(II) was studied. The results indicate that the presence of Cd(II) will reduce the prediction precision of a direct calibration model. Therefore, a two-input and one-output BP-ANN was built for the optimization of a stripping voltammetric sensor, which considering the combined effects of Cd(II) and Pb(II) on the SWASV detection of Pb(II) and establishing the nonlinear relationship between the stripping peak currents of Pb(II) and Cd(II) and the concentration of Pb(II). The key parameters of the BP-ANN and the factors affecting the SWASV detection of Pb(II) were optimized. The prediction performance of direct calibration model and BP-ANN model were tested with regard to the mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), average relative error (ARE), and correlation coefficient. The results proved that the BP-ANN model exhibited higher prediction accuracy than the direct calibration model. Finally, a real samples analysis was performed to determine trace Pb(II) in some soil specimens with satisfactory results.

A Comparative Study on Improved Arrhenius-Type and Artificial Neural Network Models to Predict High-Temperature Flow Behaviors in 20MnNiMo Alloy

PubMed Central

Yu, Chun-tang; Liu, Ying-ying; Xia, Yu-feng

2014-01-01

The stress-strain data of 20MnNiMo alloy were collected from a series of hot compressions on Gleeble-1500 thermal-mechanical simulator in the temperature range of 1173∼1473 K and strain rate range of 0.01∼10 s−1. Based on the experimental data, the improved Arrhenius-type constitutive model and the artificial neural network (ANN) model were established to predict the high temperature flow stress of as-cast 20MnNiMo alloy. The accuracy and reliability of the improved Arrhenius-type model and the trained ANN model were further evaluated in terms of the correlation coefficient (R), the average absolute relative error (AARE), and the relative error (η). For the former, R and AARE were found to be 0.9954 and 5.26%, respectively, while, for the latter, 0.9997 and 1.02%, respectively. The relative errors (η) of the improved Arrhenius-type model and the ANN model were, respectively, in the range of −39.99%∼35.05% and −3.77%∼16.74%. As for the former, only 16.3% of the test data set possesses η-values within ±1%, while, as for the latter, more than 79% possesses. The results indicate that the ANN model presents a higher predictable ability than the improved Arrhenius-type constitutive model. PMID:24688358

Prediction of daily sea surface temperature using efficient neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patil, Kalpesh; Deo, Makaranad Chintamani

2017-04-01

Short-term prediction of sea surface temperature (SST) is commonly achieved through numerical models. Numerical approaches are more suitable for use over a large spatial domain than in a specific site because of the difficulties involved in resolving various physical sub-processes at local levels. Therefore, for a given location, a data-driven approach such as neural networks may provide a better alternative. The application of neural networks, however, needs a large experimentation in their architecture, training methods, and formation of appropriate input-output pairs. A network trained in this manner can provide more attractive results if the advances in network architecture are additionally considered. With this in mind, we propose the use of wavelet neural networks (WNNs) for prediction of daily SST values. The prediction of daily SST values was carried out using WNN over 5 days into the future at six different locations in the Indian Ocean. First, the accuracy of site-specific SST values predicted by a numerical model, ROMS, was assessed against the in situ records. The result pointed out the necessity for alternative approaches. First, traditional networks were tried and after noticing their poor performance, WNN was used. This approach produced attractive forecasts when judged through various error statistics. When all locations were viewed together, the mean absolute error was within 0.18 to 0.32 °C for a 5-day-ahead forecast. The WNN approach was thus found to add value to the numerical method of SST prediction when location-specific information is desired.

Predictive accuracy of a model of volatile anesthetic uptake.

PubMed

Kennedy, R Ross; French, Richard A; Spencer, Christopher

2002-12-01

A computer program that models anesthetic uptake and distribution has been in use in our department for 20 yr as a teaching tool. New anesthesia machines that electronically measure fresh gas flow rates and vaporizer settings allowed us to assess the performance of this model during clinical anesthesia. Gas flow, vaporizer settings, and end-tidal concentrations were collected from the anesthesia machine (Datex S/5 ADU) at 10-s intervals during 30 elective anesthetics. These were entered into the uptake model. Expired anesthetic vapor concentrations were calculated and compared with actual values as measured by the patient monitor (Datex AS/3). Sevoflurane was used in 16 patients and isoflurane in 14 patients. For all patients, the median performance error was -0.24%, the median absolute performance error was 13.7%, divergence was 2.3%/h, and wobble was 3.1%. There was no significant difference between sevoflurane and isoflurane. This model predicted expired concentrations well in these patients. These results are similar to those seen when comparing calculated and actual propofol concentrations in propofol infusion systems and meet published guidelines for the accuracy of models used in target-controlled anesthesia systems. This model may be useful for predicting responses to changes in fresh gas and vapor settings. We compared measured inhaled anesthetic concentrations with those predicted by a model. The method used for comparison has been used to study models of propofol administration. Our model predicts expired isoflurane and sevoflurane concentrations at least as well as common propofol models predict arterial propofol concentrations.

Measuring Socioeconomic Inequalities With Predicted Absolute Incomes Rather Than Wealth Quintiles: A Comparative Assessment Using Child Stunting Data From National Surveys.

PubMed

Fink, Günther; Victora, Cesar G; Harttgen, Kenneth; Vollmer, Sebastian; Vidaletti, Luís Paulo; Barros, Aluisio J D

2017-04-01

To compare the predictive power of synthetic absolute income measures with that of asset-based wealth quintiles in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) using child stunting as an outcome. We pooled data from 239 nationally representative household surveys from LMICs and computed absolute incomes in US dollars based on households' asset rank as well as data on national consumption and inequality levels. We used multivariable regression models to compare the predictive power of the created income measure with the predictive power of existing asset indicator measures. In cross-country analysis, log absolute income predicted 54.5% of stunting variation observed, compared with 20% of variation explained by wealth quintiles. For within-survey analysis, we also found absolute income gaps to be predictive of the gaps between stunting in the wealthiest and poorest households (P < .001). Our results suggest that absolute income levels can greatly improve the prediction of stunting levels across and within countries over time, compared with models that rely solely on relative wealth quintiles.

A suggestion for computing objective function in model calibration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wu, Yiping; Liu, Shuguang

2014-01-01

A parameter-optimization process (model calibration) is usually required for numerical model applications, which involves the use of an objective function to determine the model cost (model-data errors). The sum of square errors (SSR) has been widely adopted as the objective function in various optimization procedures. However, ‘square error’ calculation was found to be more sensitive to extreme or high values. Thus, we proposed that the sum of absolute errors (SAR) may be a better option than SSR for model calibration. To test this hypothesis, we used two case studies—a hydrological model calibration and a biogeochemical model calibration—to investigate the behavior of a group of potential objective functions: SSR, SAR, sum of squared relative deviation (SSRD), and sum of absolute relative deviation (SARD). Mathematical evaluation of model performance demonstrates that ‘absolute error’ (SAR and SARD) are superior to ‘square error’ (SSR and SSRD) in calculating objective function for model calibration, and SAR behaved the best (with the least error and highest efficiency). This study suggests that SSR might be overly used in real applications, and SAR may be a reasonable choice in common optimization implementations without emphasizing either high or low values (e.g., modeling for supporting resources management).

Comparison of intraocular lens power prediction using immersion ultrasound and optical biometry with and without formula optimization.

PubMed

Nemeth, Gabor; Nagy, Attila; Berta, Andras; Modis, Laszlo

2012-09-01

Comparison of postoperative refraction results using ultrasound biometry with closed immersion shell and optical biometry. Three hundred and sixty-four eyes of 306 patients (age: 70.6 ± 12.8 years) underwent cataract surgery where intraocular lenses calculated by SRK/T formula were implanted. In 159 cases immersion ultrasonic biometry, in 205 eyes optical biometry was used. Differences between predicted and actual postoperative refractions were calculated both prior to and after optimization with the SRK/T formula, after which we analysed the similar data in the case of Holladay, Haigis, and Hoffer-Q formulas. Mean absolute error (MAE) and the percentage rate of patients within ±0.5 and ±1.0 D difference in the predicted error were calculated with these four formulas. MAE was 0.5-0.7 D in cases of both methods with SRK/T, Holladay, and Hoffer-Q formula, but higher with Haigis formula. With no optimization, 60-65 % of the patients were under 0.5 D error in the immersion group (except for Haigis formula). Using the optical method, this value was slightly higher (62-67 %), however, in this case, Haigis formula also did not perform so well (45 %). Refraction results significantly improved with Holladay, Hoffer-Q, and Haigis formulas in both groups. The rate of patients under 0.5 D error increased to 65 % by the immersion technique, and up to 80 % by the optical one. According to our results, optical biometry offers only slightly better outcomes compared to those of immersion shell with no optimized formulas. However, in case of new generation formulas with both methods, the optimization of IOL-constants give significantly better results.

Fundamental principles of absolute radiometry and the philosophy of this NBS program (1968 to 1971)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Geist, J.

1972-01-01

A description is given work performed on a program to develop an electrically calibrated detector (also called absolute radiometer, absolute detector, and electrically calibrated radiometer) that could be used to realize, maintain, and transfer a scale of total irradiance. The program includes a comprehensive investigation of the theoretical basis of absolute detector radiometry, as well as the design and construction of a number of detectors. A theoretical analysis of the sources of error is also included.

Substitute CT generation from a single ultra short time echo MRI sequence: preliminary study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghose, Soumya; Dowling, Jason A.; Rai, Robba; Liney, Gary P.

2017-04-01

In MR guided radiation therapy planning both MR and CT images for a patient are acquired and co-registered to obtain a tissue specific HU map. Generation of the HU map directly from the MRI would eliminate the CT acquisition and may improve radiation therapy planning. In this preliminary study of substitute CT (sCT) generation, two porcine leg phantoms were scanned using a 3D ultrashort echo time (PETRA) sequence and co-registered to corresponding CT images to build tissue specific regression models. The model was created from one co-registered CT-PETRA pair to generate the sCT for the other PETRA image. An expectation maximization based clustering was performed on the co-registered PETRA image to identify the soft tissues, dense bone and air class membership probabilities. A tissue specific non linear regression model was built from one registered CT-PETRA pair dataset to predict the sCT of the second PETRA image in a two-fold cross validation schema. A complete substitute CT is generated in 3 min. The mean absolute HU error for air was 0.3 HU, bone was 95 HU, fat was 30 HU and for muscle it was 10 HU. The mean surface reconstruction error for the bone was 1.3 mm. The PETRA sequence enabled a low mean absolute surface distance for the bone and a low HU error for other classes. The sCT generated from a single PETRA sequence shows promise for the generation of fast sCT for MRI based radiation therapy planning.

The effect of modeled absolute timing variability and relative timing variability on observational learning.

PubMed

Grierson, Lawrence E M; Roberts, James W; Welsher, Arthur M

2017-05-01

There is much evidence to suggest that skill learning is enhanced by skill observation. Recent research on this phenomenon indicates a benefit of observing variable/erred demonstrations. In this study, we explore whether it is variability within the relative organization or absolute parameterization of a movement that facilitates skill learning through observation. To do so, participants were randomly allocated into groups that observed a model with no variability, absolute timing variability, relative timing variability, or variability in both absolute and relative timing. All participants performed a four-segment movement pattern with specific absolute and relative timing goals prior to and following the observational intervention, as well as in a 24h retention test and transfers tests that featured new relative and absolute timing goals. Absolute timing error indicated that all groups initially acquired the absolute timing, maintained their performance at 24h retention, and exhibited performance deterioration in both transfer tests. Relative timing error revealed that the observation of no variability and relative timing variability produced greater performance at the post-test, 24h retention and relative timing transfer tests, but for the no variability group, deteriorated at absolute timing transfer test. The results suggest that the learning of absolute timing following observation unfolds irrespective of model variability. However, the learning of relative timing benefits from holding the absolute features constant, while the observation of no variability partially fails in transfer. We suggest learning by observing no variability and variable/erred models unfolds via similar neural mechanisms, although the latter benefits from the additional coding of information pertaining to movements that require a correction. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A prediction model for cognitive performance in health ageing using diffusion tensor imaging with graph theory.

PubMed

Yun, Ruijuan; Lin, Chung-Chih; Wu, Shuicai; Huang, Chu-Chung; Lin, Ching-Po; Chao, Yi-Ping

2013-01-01

In this study, we employed diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) to construct brain structural network and then derive the connection matrices from 96 healthy elderly subjects. The correlation analysis between these topological properties of network based on graph theory and the Cognitive Abilities Screening Instrument (CASI) index were processed to extract the significant network characteristics. These characteristics were then integrated to estimate the models by various machine-learning algorithms to predict user's cognitive performance. From the results, linear regression model and Gaussian processes model showed presented better abilities with lower mean absolute errors of 5.8120 and 6.25 to predict the cognitive performance respectively. Moreover, these extracted topological properties of brain structural network derived from DTI also could be regarded as the bio-signatures for further evaluation of brain degeneration in healthy aged and early diagnosis of mild cognitive impairment (MCI).

Simple tool for prediction of parotid gland sparing in intensity-modulated radiation therapy.

PubMed

Gensheimer, Michael F; Hummel-Kramer, Sharon M; Cain, David; Quang, Tony S

2015-01-01

Sparing one or both parotid glands is a key goal when planning head and neck cancer radiation treatment. If the planning target volume (PTV) overlaps one or both parotid glands substantially, it may not be possible to achieve adequate gland sparing. This finding results in physicians revising their PTV contours after an intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) plan has been run and reduces workflow efficiency. We devised a simple formula for predicting mean parotid gland dose from the overlap of the parotid gland and isotropically expanded PTV contours. We tested the tool using 44 patients from 2 institutions and found agreement between predicted and actual parotid gland doses (mean absolute error = 5.3 Gy). This simple method could increase treatment planning efficiency by improving the chance that the first plan presented to the physician will have optimal parotid gland sparing. Published by Elsevier Inc.

A simple model to predict the biodiesel blend density as simultaneous function of blend percent and temperature.

PubMed

Gaonkar, Narayan; Vaidya, R G

2016-05-01

A simple method to estimate the density of biodiesel blend as simultaneous function of temperature and volume percent of biodiesel is proposed. Employing the Kay's mixing rule, we developed a model and investigated theoretically the density of different vegetable oil biodiesel blends as a simultaneous function of temperature and volume percent of biodiesel. Key advantage of the proposed model is that it requires only a single set of density values of components of biodiesel blends at any two different temperatures. We notice that the density of blend linearly decreases with increase in temperature and increases with increase in volume percent of the biodiesel. The lower values of standard estimate of error (SEE = 0.0003-0.0022) and absolute average deviation (AAD = 0.03-0.15 %) obtained using the proposed model indicate the predictive capability. The predicted values found good agreement with the recent available experimental data.

Simple tool for prediction of parotid gland sparing in intensity-modulated radiation therapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gensheimer, Michael F.; Hummel-Kramer, Sharon M., E-mail: sharonhummel@comcast.net; Cain, David

Sparing one or both parotid glands is a key goal when planning head and neck cancer radiation treatment. If the planning target volume (PTV) overlaps one or both parotid glands substantially, it may not be possible to achieve adequate gland sparing. This finding results in physicians revising their PTV contours after an intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) plan has been run and reduces workflow efficiency. We devised a simple formula for predicting mean parotid gland dose from the overlap of the parotid gland and isotropically expanded PTV contours. We tested the tool using 44 patients from 2 institutions and found agreementmore » between predicted and actual parotid gland doses (mean absolute error = 5.3 Gy). This simple method could increase treatment planning efficiency by improving the chance that the first plan presented to the physician will have optimal parotid gland sparing.« less

Short-term acoustic forecasting via artificial neural networks for neonatal intensive care units.

PubMed

Young, Jason; Macke, Christopher J; Tsoukalas, Lefteri H

2012-11-01

Noise levels in hospitals, especially neonatal intensive care units (NICUs), have become of great concern for hospital designers. This paper details an artificial neural network (ANN) approach to forecasting the sound loads in NICUs. The ANN is used to learn the relationship between past, present, and future noise levels. By training the ANN with data specific to the location and device used to measure the sound, the ANN is able to produce reasonable predictions of noise levels in the NICU. Best case results show average absolute errors of 5.06 ± 4.04% when used to predict the noise levels one hour ahead, which correspond to 2.53 dBA ± 2.02 dBA. The ANN has the tendency to overpredict during periods of stability and underpredict during large transients. This forecasting algorithm could be of use in any application where prediction and prevention of harmful noise levels are of the utmost concern.

Machine Learning Estimates of Natural Product Conformational Energies

PubMed Central

Rupp, Matthias; Bauer, Matthias R.; Wilcken, Rainer; Lange, Andreas; Reutlinger, Michael; Boeckler, Frank M.; Schneider, Gisbert

2014-01-01

Machine learning has been used for estimation of potential energy surfaces to speed up molecular dynamics simulations of small systems. We demonstrate that this approach is feasible for significantly larger, structurally complex molecules, taking the natural product Archazolid A, a potent inhibitor of vacuolar-type ATPase, from the myxobacterium Archangium gephyra as an example. Our model estimates energies of new conformations by exploiting information from previous calculations via Gaussian process regression. Predictive variance is used to assess whether a conformation is in the interpolation region, allowing a controlled trade-off between prediction accuracy and computational speed-up. For energies of relaxed conformations at the density functional level of theory (implicit solvent, DFT/BLYP-disp3/def2-TZVP), mean absolute errors of less than 1 kcal/mol were achieved. The study demonstrates that predictive machine learning models can be developed for structurally complex, pharmaceutically relevant compounds, potentially enabling considerable speed-ups in simulations of larger molecular structures. PMID:24453952

Real-time Ensemble Forecasting of Coronal Mass Ejections using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mays, M. L.; Taktakishvili, A.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; MacNeice, P. J.; Rastaetter, L.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Odstrcil, D.

2013-12-01

Ensemble forecasting of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) provides significant information in that it provides an estimation of the spread or uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions due to uncertainties in determining CME input parameters. Ensemble modeling of CME propagation in the heliosphere is performed by forecasters at the Space Weather Research Center (SWRC) using the WSA-ENLIL cone model available at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC). SWRC is an in-house research-based operations team at the CCMC which provides interplanetary space weather forecasting for NASA's robotic missions and performs real-time model validation. A distribution of n (routinely n=48) CME input parameters are generated using the CCMC Stereo CME Analysis Tool (StereoCAT) which employs geometrical triangulation techniques. These input parameters are used to perform n different simulations yielding an ensemble of solar wind parameters at various locations of interest (satellites or planets), including a probability distribution of CME shock arrival times (for hits), and geomagnetic storm strength (for Earth-directed hits). Ensemble simulations have been performed experimentally in real-time at the CCMC since January 2013. We present the results of ensemble simulations for a total of 15 CME events, 10 of which were performed in real-time. The observed CME arrival was within the range of ensemble arrival time predictions for 5 out of the 12 ensemble runs containing hits. The average arrival time prediction was computed for each of the twelve ensembles predicting hits and using the actual arrival time an average absolute error of 8.20 hours was found for all twelve ensembles, which is comparable to current forecasting errors. Some considerations for the accuracy of ensemble CME arrival time predictions include the importance of the initial distribution of CME input parameters, particularly the mean and spread. When the observed arrivals are not within the predicted range, this still allows the ruling out of prediction errors caused by tested CME input parameters. Prediction errors can also arise from ambient model parameters such as the accuracy of the solar wind background, and other limitations. Additionally the ensemble modeling setup was used to complete a parametric event case study of the sensitivity of the CME arrival time prediction to free parameters for ambient solar wind model and CME.

Longitudinal predictive ability of mapping models: examining post-intervention EQ-5D utilities derived from baseline MHAQ data in rheumatoid arthritis patients.

PubMed

Kontodimopoulos, Nick; Bozios, Panagiotis; Yfantopoulos, John; Niakas, Dimitris

2013-04-01

The purpose of this methodological study was to to provide insight into the under-addressed issue of the longitudinal predictive ability of mapping models. Post-intervention predicted and reported utilities were compared, and the effect of disease severity on the observed differences was examined. A cohort of 120 rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients (60.0% female, mean age 59.0) embarking on therapy with biological agents completed the Modified Health Assessment Questionnaire (MHAQ) and the EQ-5D at baseline, and at 3, 6 and 12 months post-intervention. OLS regression produced a mapping equation to estimate post-intervention EQ-5D utilities from baseline MHAQ data. Predicted and reported utilities were compared with t test, and the prediction error was modeled, using fixed effects, in terms of covariates such as age, gender, time, disease duration, treatment, RF, DAS28 score, predicted and reported EQ-5D. The OLS model (RMSE = 0.207, R(2) = 45.2%) consistently underestimated future utilities, with a mean prediction error of 6.5%. Mean absolute differences between reported and predicted EQ-5D utilities at 3, 6 and 12 months exceeded the typically reported MID of the EQ-5D (0.03). According to the fixed-effects model, time, lower predicted EQ-5D and higher DAS28 scores had a significant impact on prediction errors, which appeared increasingly negative for lower reported EQ-5D scores, i.e., predicted utilities tended to be lower than reported ones in more severe health states. This study builds upon existing research having demonstrated the potential usefulness of mapping disease-specific instruments onto utility measures. The specific issue of longitudinal validity is addressed, as mapping models derived from baseline patients need to be validated on post-therapy samples. The underestimation of post-treatment utilities in the present study, at least in more severe patients, warrants further research before it is prudent to conduct cost-utility analyses in the context of RA by means of the MHAQ alone.

A novel validation and calibration method for motion capture systems based on micro-triangulation.

PubMed

Nagymáté, Gergely; Tuchband, Tamás; Kiss, Rita M

2018-06-06

Motion capture systems are widely used to measure human kinematics. Nevertheless, users must consider system errors when evaluating their results. Most validation techniques for these systems are based on relative distance and displacement measurements. In contrast, our study aimed to analyse the absolute volume accuracy of optical motion capture systems by means of engineering surveying reference measurement of the marker coordinates (uncertainty: 0.75 mm). The method is exemplified on an 18 camera OptiTrack Flex13 motion capture system. The absolute accuracy was defined by the root mean square error (RMSE) between the coordinates measured by the camera system and by engineering surveying (micro-triangulation). The original RMSE of 1.82 mm due to scaling error was managed to be reduced to 0.77 mm while the correlation of errors to their distance from the origin reduced from 0.855 to 0.209. A simply feasible but less accurate absolute accuracy compensation method using tape measure on large distances was also tested, which resulted in similar scaling compensation compared to the surveying method or direct wand size compensation by a high precision 3D scanner. The presented validation methods can be less precise in some respects as compared to previous techniques, but they address an error type, which has not been and cannot be studied with the previous validation methods. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dynamic diagnostics of the error fields in tokamaks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pustovitov, V. D.

2007-07-01

The error field diagnostics based on magnetic measurements outside the plasma is discussed. The analysed methods rely on measuring the plasma dynamic response to the finite-amplitude external magnetic perturbations, which are the error fields and the pre-programmed probing pulses. Such pulses can be created by the coils designed for static error field correction and for stabilization of the resistive wall modes, the technique developed and applied in several tokamaks, including DIII-D and JET. Here analysis is based on the theory predictions for the resonant field amplification (RFA). To achieve the desired level of the error field correction in tokamaks, the diagnostics must be sensitive to signals of several Gauss. Therefore, part of the measurements should be performed near the plasma stability boundary, where the RFA effect is stronger. While the proximity to the marginal stability is important, the absolute values of plasma parameters are not. This means that the necessary measurements can be done in the diagnostic discharges with parameters below the nominal operating regimes, with the stability boundary intentionally lowered. The estimates for ITER are presented. The discussed diagnostics can be tested in dedicated experiments in existing tokamaks. The diagnostics can be considered as an extension of the 'active MHD spectroscopy' used recently in the DIII-D tokamak and the EXTRAP T2R reversed field pinch.

Modeling the growth kinetics of Bacillus cereus as a function of temperature, pH, sodium lactate and sodium chloride concentrations.

PubMed

Olmez, Hülya Kaptan; Aran, Necla

2005-02-01

Mathematical models describing the growth kinetic parameters (lag phase duration and growth rate) of Bacillus cereus as a function of temperature, pH, sodium lactate and sodium chloride concentrations were obtained in this study. In order to get a residual distribution closer to a normal distribution, the natural logarithm of the growth kinetic parameters were used in modeling. For reasons of parsimony, the polynomial models were reduced to contain only the coefficients significant at a level of p

Effective Acceleration Model for the Arrival Time of Interplanetary Shocks driven by Coronal Mass Ejections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paouris, Evangelos; Mavromichalaki, Helen

2017-12-01

In a previous work (Paouris and Mavromichalaki in Solar Phys. 292, 30, 2017), we presented a total of 266 interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) with as much information as possible. We developed a new empirical model for estimating the acceleration of these events in the interplanetary medium from this analysis. In this work, we present a new approach on the effective acceleration model (EAM) for predicting the arrival time of the shock that preceds a CME, using data of a total of 214 ICMEs. For the first time, the projection effects of the linear speed of CMEs are taken into account in this empirical model, which significantly improves the prediction of the arrival time of the shock. In particular, the mean value of the time difference between the observed time of the shock and the predicted time was equal to +3.03 hours with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 18.58 hours and a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 22.47 hours. After the improvement of this model, the mean value of the time difference is decreased to -0.28 hours with an MAE of 17.65 hours and an RMSE of 21.55 hours. This improved version was applied to a set of three recent Earth-directed CMEs reported in May, June, and July of 2017, and we compare our results with the values predicted by other related models.

ON THE HUBBLE SPACE TELESCOPE TRIGONOMETRIC PARALLAX OF THE DWARF NOVA SS CYGNI

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nelan, Edmund P.; Bond, Howard E., E-mail: nelan@stsci.edu, E-mail: heb11@psu.edu

SS Cygni is one of the brightest dwarf novae (DNe), and one of the best studied prototypes of the cataclysmic variables. Astrometric observations with the Fine Guidance Sensors (FGSs) on the Hubble Space Telescope (HST), published in 2004, gave an absolute trigonometric parallax of 6.06 {+-} 0.44 mas. However, recent very long baseline interferometry (VLBI), obtained during radio outbursts of SS Cyg, has yielded a significantly larger absolute parallax of 8.80 {+-} 0.12 mas, as well as a large difference in the direction of the proper motion (PM) compared to the HST result. The VLBI distance reduces the implied luminositymore » of SS Cyg by about a factor of two, giving good agreement with predictions based on accretion-disk theory in order to explain the observed DN outburst behavior. This discrepancy raises the possibility of significant systematic errors in FGS parallaxes and PMs. We have reanalyzed the archival HST/FGS data, including (1) a critical redetermination of the parallaxes of the background astrometric reference stars, (2) updated input values of the reference-star PMs, and (3) correction of the position measurements for color-dependent shifts. Our new analysis yields a PM of SS Cyg that agrees well with the VLBI motion, and an absolute parallax of 8.30 {+-} 0.41 mas, also statistically concordant with the VLBI result at the {approx}1.2 {sigma} level. Our results suggest that HST/FGS parallaxes are free of large systematic errors, when the data are reduced using high-quality input values for the astrometry of the reference stars, and when instrumental signatures are properly removed.« less

An autoregressive integrated moving average model for short-term prediction of hepatitis C virus seropositivity among male volunteer blood donors in Karachi, Pakistan

PubMed Central

Akhtar, Saeed; Rozi, Shafquat

2009-01-01

AIM: To identify the stochastic autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model for short term forecasting of hepatitis C virus (HCV) seropositivity among volunteer blood donors in Karachi, Pakistan. METHODS: Ninety-six months (1998-2005) data on HCV seropositive cases (1000-1 × month-1) among male volunteer blood donors tested at four major blood banks in Karachi, Pakistan were subjected to ARIMA modeling. Subsequently, a fitted ARIMA model was used to forecast HCV seropositive donors for 91-96 mo to contrast with observed series of the same months. To assess the forecast accuracy, the mean absolute error rate (%) between the observed and predicted HCV seroprevalence was calculated. Finally, a fitted ARIMA model was used for short-term forecasts beyond the observed series. RESULTS: The goodness-of-fit test of the optimum ARIMA (2,1,7) model showed non-significant autocorrelations in the residuals of the model. The forecasts by ARIMA for 91-96 mo closely followed the pattern of observed series for the same months, with mean monthly absolute forecast errors (%) over 6 mo of 6.5%. The short-term forecasts beyond the observed series adequately captured the pattern in the data and showed increasing tendency of HCV seropositivity with a mean ± SD HCV seroprevalence (1000-1 × month-1) of 24.3 ± 1.4 over the forecast interval. CONCLUSION: To curtail HCV spread, public health authorities need to educate communities and health care providers about HCV transmission routes based on known HCV epidemiology in Pakistan and its neighboring countries. Future research may focus on factors associated with hyperendemic levels of HCV infection. PMID:19340903

Forecasting mortality of road traffic injuries in China using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model.

PubMed

Zhang, Xujun; Pang, Yuanyuan; Cui, Mengjing; Stallones, Lorann; Xiang, Huiyun

2015-02-01

Road traffic injuries have become a major public health problem in China. This study aimed to develop statistical models for predicting road traffic deaths and to analyze seasonality of deaths in China. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was used to fit the data from 2000 to 2011. Akaike Information Criterion, Bayesian Information Criterion, and mean absolute percentage error were used to evaluate the constructed models. Autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation function of residuals and Ljung-Box test were used to compare the goodness-of-fit between the different models. The SARIMA model was used to forecast monthly road traffic deaths in 2012. The seasonal pattern of road traffic mortality data was statistically significant in China. SARIMA (1, 1, 1) (0, 1, 1)12 model was the best fitting model among various candidate models; the Akaike Information Criterion, Bayesian Information Criterion, and mean absolute percentage error were -483.679, -475.053, and 4.937, respectively. Goodness-of-fit testing showed nonautocorrelations in the residuals of the model (Ljung-Box test, Q = 4.86, P = .993). The fitted deaths using the SARIMA (1, 1, 1) (0, 1, 1)12 model for years 2000 to 2011 closely followed the observed number of road traffic deaths for the same years. The predicted and observed deaths were also very close for 2012. This study suggests that accurate forecasting of road traffic death incidence is possible using SARIMA model. The SARIMA model applied to historical road traffic deaths data could provide important evidence of burden of road traffic injuries in China. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multivariate decoding of brain images using ordinal regression.

PubMed

Doyle, O M; Ashburner, J; Zelaya, F O; Williams, S C R; Mehta, M A; Marquand, A F

2013-11-01

Neuroimaging data are increasingly being used to predict potential outcomes or groupings, such as clinical severity, drug dose response, and transitional illness states. In these examples, the variable (target) we want to predict is ordinal in nature. Conventional classification schemes assume that the targets are nominal and hence ignore their ranked nature, whereas parametric and/or non-parametric regression models enforce a metric notion of distance between classes. Here, we propose a novel, alternative multivariate approach that overcomes these limitations - whole brain probabilistic ordinal regression using a Gaussian process framework. We applied this technique to two data sets of pharmacological neuroimaging data from healthy volunteers. The first study was designed to investigate the effect of ketamine on brain activity and its subsequent modulation with two compounds - lamotrigine and risperidone. The second study investigates the effect of scopolamine on cerebral blood flow and its modulation using donepezil. We compared ordinal regression to multi-class classification schemes and metric regression. Considering the modulation of ketamine with lamotrigine, we found that ordinal regression significantly outperformed multi-class classification and metric regression in terms of accuracy and mean absolute error. However, for risperidone ordinal regression significantly outperformed metric regression but performed similarly to multi-class classification both in terms of accuracy and mean absolute error. For the scopolamine data set, ordinal regression was found to outperform both multi-class and metric regression techniques considering the regional cerebral blood flow in the anterior cingulate cortex. Ordinal regression was thus the only method that performed well in all cases. Our results indicate the potential of an ordinal regression approach for neuroimaging data while providing a fully probabilistic framework with elegant approaches for model selection. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Inc.

QSAR modeling of human serum protein binding with several modeling techniques utilizing structure-information representation.

PubMed

Votano, Joseph R; Parham, Marc; Hall, L Mark; Hall, Lowell H; Kier, Lemont B; Oloff, Scott; Tropsha, Alexander

2006-11-30

Four modeling techniques, using topological descriptors to represent molecular structure, were employed to produce models of human serum protein binding (% bound) on a data set of 1008 experimental values, carefully screened from publicly available sources. To our knowledge, this data is the largest set on human serum protein binding reported for QSAR modeling. The data was partitioned into a training set of 808 compounds and an external validation test set of 200 compounds. Partitioning was accomplished by clustering the compounds in a structure descriptor space so that random sampling of 20% of the whole data set produced an external test set that is a good representative of the training set with respect to both structure and protein binding values. The four modeling techniques include multiple linear regression (MLR), artificial neural networks (ANN), k-nearest neighbors (kNN), and support vector machines (SVM). With the exception of the MLR model, the ANN, kNN, and SVM QSARs were ensemble models. Training set correlation coefficients and mean absolute error ranged from r2=0.90 and MAE=7.6 for ANN to r2=0.61 and MAE=16.2 for MLR. Prediction results from the validation set yielded correlation coefficients and mean absolute errors which ranged from r2=0.70 and MAE=14.1 for ANN to a low of r2=0.59 and MAE=18.3 for the SVM model. Structure descriptors that contribute significantly to the models are discussed and compared with those found in other published models. For the ANN model, structure descriptor trends with respect to their affects on predicted protein binding can assist the chemist in structure modification during the drug design process.

Wavelet regression model in forecasting crude oil price

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamid, Mohd Helmie; Shabri, Ani

2017-05-01

This study presents the performance of wavelet multiple linear regression (WMLR) technique in daily crude oil forecasting. WMLR model was developed by integrating the discrete wavelet transform (DWT) and multiple linear regression (MLR) model. The original time series was decomposed to sub-time series with different scales by wavelet theory. Correlation analysis was conducted to assist in the selection of optimal decomposed components as inputs for the WMLR model. The daily WTI crude oil price series has been used in this study to test the prediction capability of the proposed model. The forecasting performance of WMLR model were also compared with regular multiple linear regression (MLR), Autoregressive Moving Average (ARIMA) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) using root mean square errors (RMSE) and mean absolute errors (MAE). Based on the experimental results, it appears that the WMLR model performs better than the other forecasting technique tested in this study.

Predicting typhoon-induced storm surge tide with a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model and artificial neural network model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, W.-B.; Liu, W.-C.; Hsu, M.-H.

2012-12-01

Precise predictions of storm surges during typhoon events have the necessity for disaster prevention in coastal seas. This paper explores an artificial neural network (ANN) model, including the back propagation neural network (BPNN) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) algorithms used to correct poor calculations with a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model in predicting storm surge height during typhoon events. The two-dimensional model has a fine horizontal resolution and considers the interaction between storm surges and astronomical tides, which can be applied for describing the complicated physical properties of storm surges along the east coast of Taiwan. The model is driven by the tidal elevation at the open boundaries using a global ocean tidal model and is forced by the meteorological conditions using a cyclone model. The simulated results of the hydrodynamic model indicate that this model fails to predict storm surge height during the model calibration and verification phases as typhoons approached the east coast of Taiwan. The BPNN model can reproduce the astronomical tide level but fails to modify the prediction of the storm surge tide level. The ANFIS model satisfactorily predicts both the astronomical tide level and the storm surge height during the training and verification phases and exhibits the lowest values of mean absolute error and root-mean-square error compared to the simulated results at the different stations using the hydrodynamic model and the BPNN model. Comparison results showed that the ANFIS techniques could be successfully applied in predicting water levels along the east coastal of Taiwan during typhoon events.

Estimating current and future streamflow characteristics at ungaged sites, central and eastern Montana, with application to evaluating effects of climate change on fish populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sando, Roy; Chase, Katherine J.

2017-03-23

A common statistical procedure for estimating streamflow statistics at ungaged locations is to develop a relational model between streamflow and drainage basin characteristics at gaged locations using least squares regression analysis; however, least squares regression methods are parametric and make constraining assumptions about the data distribution. The random forest regression method provides an alternative nonparametric method for estimating streamflow characteristics at ungaged sites and requires that the data meet fewer statistical conditions than least squares regression methods.Random forest regression analysis was used to develop predictive models for 89 streamflow characteristics using Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System simulated streamflow data and drainage basin characteristics at 179 sites in central and eastern Montana. The predictive models were developed from streamflow data simulated for current (baseline, water years 1982–99) conditions and three future periods (water years 2021–38, 2046–63, and 2071–88) under three different climate-change scenarios. These predictive models were then used to predict streamflow characteristics for baseline conditions and three future periods at 1,707 fish sampling sites in central and eastern Montana. The average root mean square error for all predictive models was about 50 percent. When streamflow predictions at 23 fish sampling sites were compared to nearby locations with simulated data, the mean relative percent difference was about 43 percent. When predictions were compared to streamflow data recorded at 21 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations outside of the calibration basins, the average mean absolute percent error was about 73 percent.

Prediction of pKa Values for Neutral and Basic Drugs based on Hybrid Artificial Intelligence Methods.

PubMed

Li, Mengshan; Zhang, Huaijing; Chen, Bingsheng; Wu, Yan; Guan, Lixin

2018-03-05

The pKa value of drugs is an important parameter in drug design and pharmacology. In this paper, an improved particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm was proposed based on the population entropy diversity. In the improved algorithm, when the population entropy was higher than the set maximum threshold, the convergence strategy was adopted; when the population entropy was lower than the set minimum threshold the divergence strategy was adopted; when the population entropy was between the maximum and minimum threshold, the self-adaptive adjustment strategy was maintained. The improved PSO algorithm was applied in the training of radial basis function artificial neural network (RBF ANN) model and the selection of molecular descriptors. A quantitative structure-activity relationship model based on RBF ANN trained by the improved PSO algorithm was proposed to predict the pKa values of 74 kinds of neutral and basic drugs and then validated by another database containing 20 molecules. The validation results showed that the model had a good prediction performance. The absolute average relative error, root mean square error, and squared correlation coefficient were 0.3105, 0.0411, and 0.9685, respectively. The model can be used as a reference for exploring other quantitative structure-activity relationships.

Road traffic accidents prediction modelling: An analysis of Anambra State, Nigeria.

PubMed

Ihueze, Chukwutoo C; Onwurah, Uchendu O

2018-03-01

One of the major problems in the world today is the rate of road traffic crashes and deaths on our roads. Majority of these deaths occur in low-and-middle income countries including Nigeria. This study analyzed road traffic crashes in Anambra State, Nigeria with the intention of developing accurate predictive models for forecasting crash frequency in the State using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and autoregressive integrated moving average with explanatory variables (ARIMAX) modelling techniques. The result showed that ARIMAX model outperformed the ARIMA (1,1,1) model generated when their performances were compared using the lower Bayesian information criterion, mean absolute percentage error, root mean square error; and higher coefficient of determination (R-Squared) as accuracy measures. The findings of this study reveal that incorporating human, vehicle and environmental related factors in time series analysis of crash dataset produces a more robust predictive model than solely using aggregated crash count. This study contributes to the body of knowledge on road traffic safety and provides an approach to forecasting using many human, vehicle and environmental factors. The recommendations made in this study if applied will help in reducing the number of road traffic crashes in Nigeria. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Geopositioning with a quadcopter: Extracted feature locations and predicted accuracy without a priori sensor attitude information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dolloff, John; Hottel, Bryant; Edwards, David; Theiss, Henry; Braun, Aaron

2017-05-01

This paper presents an overview of the Full Motion Video-Geopositioning Test Bed (FMV-GTB) developed to investigate algorithm performance and issues related to the registration of motion imagery and subsequent extraction of feature locations along with predicted accuracy. A case study is included corresponding to a video taken from a quadcopter. Registration of the corresponding video frames is performed without the benefit of a priori sensor attitude (pointing) information. In particular, tie points are automatically measured between adjacent frames using standard optical flow matching techniques from computer vision, an a priori estimate of sensor attitude is then computed based on supplied GPS sensor positions contained in the video metadata and a photogrammetric/search-based structure from motion algorithm, and then a Weighted Least Squares adjustment of all a priori metadata across the frames is performed. Extraction of absolute 3D feature locations, including their predicted accuracy based on the principles of rigorous error propagation, is then performed using a subset of the registered frames. Results are compared to known locations (check points) over a test site. Throughout this entire process, no external control information (e.g. surveyed points) is used other than for evaluation of solution errors and corresponding accuracy.

Design of a fuzzy differential evolution algorithm to predict non-deposition sediment transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebtehaj, Isa; Bonakdari, Hossein

2017-12-01

Since the flow entering a sewer contains solid matter, deposition at the bottom of the channel is inevitable. It is difficult to understand the complex, three-dimensional mechanism of sediment transport in sewer pipelines. Therefore, a method to estimate the limiting velocity is necessary for optimal designs. Due to the inability of gradient-based algorithms to train Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS) for non-deposition sediment transport prediction, a new hybrid ANFIS method based on a differential evolutionary algorithm (ANFIS-DE) is developed. The training and testing performance of ANFIS-DE is evaluated using a wide range of dimensionless parameters gathered from the literature. The input combination used to estimate the densimetric Froude number ( Fr) parameters includes the volumetric sediment concentration ( C V ), ratio of median particle diameter to hydraulic radius ( d/R), ratio of median particle diameter to pipe diameter ( d/D) and overall friction factor of sediment ( λ s ). The testing results are compared with the ANFIS model and regression-based equation results. The ANFIS-DE technique predicted sediment transport at limit of deposition with lower root mean square error (RMSE = 0.323) and mean absolute percentage of error (MAPE = 0.065) and higher accuracy ( R 2 = 0.965) than the ANFIS model and regression-based equations.

Potential predictability and actual skill of Boreal Summer Tropical SST and Indian summer monsoon rainfall in CFSv2-T382: Role of initial SST and teleconnections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pillai, Prasanth A.; Rao, Suryachandra A.; Das, Renu S.; Salunke, Kiran; Dhakate, Ashish

2017-10-01

The present study assess the potential predictability of boreal summer (June through September, JJAS) tropical sea surface temperature (SST) and Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) using high resolution climate forecast system (CFSv2-T382) hindcasts. Potential predictability is computed using relative entropy (RE), which is the combined effect of signal strength and model spread, while the correlation between ensemble mean and observations represents the actual skill. Both actual and potential skills increase as lead time decreases for Niño3 index and equatorial East Indian Ocean (EEIO) SST anomaly and both the skills are close to each other for May IC hindcasts at zero lead. At the same time the actual skill of ISMR and El Niño Modoki index (EMI) are close to potential skill for Feb IC hindcasts (3 month lead). It is interesting to note that, both actual and potential skills are nearly equal, when RE has maximum contribution to individual year's prediction skill and its relationship with absolute error is insignificant or out of phase. The major contribution to potential predictability is from ensemble mean and the role of ensemble spread is limited for Pacific SST and ISMR hindcasts. RE values are able to capture the predictability contribution from both initial SST and simultaneous boundary forcing better than ensemble mean, resulting in higher potential skill compared to actual skill for all ICs. For Feb IC hindcasts at 3 month lead time, initial month SST (Feb SST) has important predictive component for El Niño Modoki and ISMR leading to higher value of actual skill which is close to potential skill. This study points out that even though the simultaneous relationship between ensemble mean ISMR and global SST is similar for all ICs, the predictive component from initial SST anomalies are captured well by Feb IC (3 month lead) hindcasts only. This resulted in better skill of ISMR for Feb IC (3 month lead) hindcasts compared to May IC (0 month lead) hindcasts. Lack of proper contribution from initial SST and teleconnections induces large absolute error for ISMR in May IC hindcasts resulting in very low actual skill. Thus the use of potential predictability skill and actual skill collectively help to understand the fidelity of the model for further improvement by differentiating the role of initial SST and simultaneous boundary forcing to some extent.

Facultative Stabilization Pond: Measuring Biological Oxygen Demand using Mathematical Approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wira S, Ihsan; Sunarsih, Sunarsih

2018-02-01

Pollution is a man-made phenomenon. Some pollutants which discharged directly to the environment could create serious pollution problems. Untreated wastewater will cause contamination and even pollution on the water body. Biological Oxygen Demand (BOD) is the amount of oxygen required for the oxidation by bacteria. The higher the BOD concentration, the greater the organic matter would be. The purpose of this study was to predict the value of BOD contained in wastewater. Mathematical modeling methods were chosen in this study to depict and predict the BOD values contained in facultative wastewater stabilization ponds. Measurements of sampling data were carried out to validate the model. The results of this study indicated that a mathematical approach can be applied to predict the BOD contained in the facultative wastewater stabilization ponds. The model was validated using Absolute Means Error with 10% tolerance limit, and AME for model was 7.38% (< 10%), so the model is valid. Furthermore, a mathematical approach can also be applied to illustrate and predict the contents of wastewater.

Prediction of Backbreak in Open-Pit Blasting Operations Using the Machine Learning Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khandelwal, Manoj; Monjezi, M.

2013-03-01

Backbreak is an undesirable phenomenon in blasting operations. It can cause instability of mine walls, falling down of machinery, improper fragmentation, reduced efficiency of drilling, etc. The existence of various effective parameters and their unknown relationships are the main reasons for inaccuracy of the empirical models. Presently, the application of new approaches such as artificial intelligence is highly recommended. In this paper, an attempt has been made to predict backbreak in blasting operations of Soungun iron mine, Iran, incorporating rock properties and blast design parameters using the support vector machine (SVM) method. To investigate the suitability of this approach, the predictions by SVM have been compared with multivariate regression analysis (MVRA). The coefficient of determination (CoD) and the mean absolute error (MAE) were taken as performance measures. It was found that the CoD between measured and predicted backbreak was 0.987 and 0.89 by SVM and MVRA, respectively, whereas the MAE was 0.29 and 1.07 by SVM and MVRA, respectively.

CME Arrival-time Validation of Real-time WSA-ENLIL+Cone Simulations at the CCMC/SWRC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wold, A. M.; Mays, M. L.; Taktakishvili, A.; Jian, L.; Odstrcil, D.; MacNeice, P. J.

2016-12-01

The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)-ENLIL+Cone model is used extensively in space weather operations worldwide to model CME propagation, as such it is important to assess its performance. We present validation results of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model installed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) and executed in real-time by the CCMC/Space Weather Research Center (SWRC). The SWRC is a CCMC sub-team that provides space weather services to NASA robotic mission operators and science campaigns, and also prototypes new forecasting models and techniques. CCMC/SWRC uses the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model to predict CME arrivals at NASA missions throughout the inner heliosphere. In this work we compare model predicted CME arrival-times to in-situ ICME shock observations near Earth (ACE, Wind), STEREO-A and B for simulations completed between March 2010 - July 2016 (over 1500 runs). We report hit, miss, false alarm, and correct rejection statistics for all three spacecraft. For hits we compute the bias, RMSE, and average absolute CME arrival time error, and the dependence of these errors on CME input parameters. We compare the predicted geomagnetic storm strength (Kp index) to the CME arrival time error for Earth-directed CMEs. The predicted Kp index is computed using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone plasma parameters at Earth with a modified Newell et al. (2007) coupling function. We also explore the impact of the multi-spacecraft observations on the CME parameters used initialize the model by comparing model validation results before and after the STEREO-B communication loss (since September 2014) and STEREO-A side-lobe operations (August 2014-December 2015). This model validation exercise has significance for future space weather mission planning such as L5 missions.

Special electronic distance meter calibration for precise engineering surveying industrial applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braun, Jaroslav; Štroner, Martin; Urban, Rudolf

2015-05-01

All surveying instruments and their measurements suffer from some errors. To refine the measurement results, it is necessary to use procedures restricting influence of the instrument errors on the measured values or to implement numerical corrections. In precise engineering surveying industrial applications the accuracy of the distances usually realized on relatively short distance is a key parameter limiting the resulting accuracy of the determined values (coordinates, etc.). To determine the size of systematic and random errors of the measured distances were made test with the idea of the suppression of the random error by the averaging of the repeating measurement, and reducing systematic errors influence of by identifying their absolute size on the absolute baseline realized in geodetic laboratory at the Faculty of Civil Engineering CTU in Prague. The 16 concrete pillars with forced centerings were set up and the absolute distances between the points were determined with a standard deviation of 0.02 millimetre using a Leica Absolute Tracker AT401. For any distance measured by the calibrated instruments (up to the length of the testing baseline, i.e. 38.6 m) can now be determined the size of error correction of the distance meter in two ways: Firstly by the interpolation on the raw data, or secondly using correction function derived by previous FFT transformation usage. The quality of this calibration and correction procedure was tested on three instruments (Trimble S6 HP, Topcon GPT-7501, Trimble M3) experimentally using Leica Absolute Tracker AT401. By the correction procedure was the standard deviation of the measured distances reduced significantly to less than 0.6 mm. In case of Topcon GPT-7501 is the nominal standard deviation 2 mm, achieved (without corrections) 2.8 mm and after corrections 0.55 mm; in case of Trimble M3 is nominal standard deviation 3 mm, achieved (without corrections) 1.1 mm and after corrections 0.58 mm; and finally in case of Trimble S6 is nominal standard deviation 1 mm, achieved (without corrections) 1.2 mm and after corrections 0.51 mm. Proposed procedure of the calibration and correction is in our opinion very suitable for increasing of the accuracy of the electronic distance measurement and allows the use of the common surveying instrument to achieve uncommonly high precision.

Application of Molecular Dynamics Simulations in Molecular Property Prediction II: Diffusion Coefficient

PubMed Central

Wang, Junmei; Hou, Tingjun

2011-01-01

In this work, we have evaluated how well the General AMBER force field (GAFF) performs in studying the dynamic properties of liquids. Diffusion coefficients (D) have been predicted for 17 solvents, 5 organic compounds in aqueous solutions, 4 proteins in aqueous solutions, and 9 organic compounds in non-aqueous solutions. An efficient sampling strategy has been proposed and tested in the calculation of the diffusion coefficients of solutes in solutions. There are two major findings of this study. First of all, the diffusion coefficients of organic solutes in aqueous solution can be well predicted: the average unsigned error (AUE) and the root-mean-square error (RMSE) are 0.137 and 0.171 ×10−5 cm−2s−1, respectively. Second, although the absolute values of D cannot be predicted, good correlations have been achieved for 8 organic solvents with experimental data (R2 = 0.784), 4 proteins in aqueous solutions (R2 = 0.996) and 9 organic compounds in non-aqueous solutions (R2 = 0.834). The temperature dependent behaviors of three solvents, namely, TIP3P water, dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO) and cyclohexane have been studied. The major MD settings, such as the sizes of simulation boxes and with/without wrapping the coordinates of MD snapshots into the primary simulation boxes have been explored. We have concluded that our sampling strategy that averaging the mean square displacement (MSD) collected in multiple short-MD simulations is efficient in predicting diffusion coefficients of solutes at infinite dilution. PMID:21953689

The predictive ability of six pharmacokinetic models of rocuronium developed using a single bolus: evaluation with bolus and continuous infusion regimen.

PubMed

Sasakawa, Tomoki; Masui, Kenichi; Kazama, Tomiei; Iwasaki, Hiroshi

2016-08-01

Rocuronium concentration prediction using pharmacokinetic (PK) models would be useful for controlling rocuronium effects because neuromuscular monitoring throughout anesthesia can be difficult. This study assessed whether six different compartmental PK models developed from data obtained after bolus administration only could predict the measured plasma concentration (Cp) values of rocuronium delivered by bolus followed by continuous infusion. Rocuronium Cp values from 19 healthy subjects who received a bolus dose followed by continuous infusion in a phase III multicenter trial in Japan were used retrospectively as evaluation datasets. Six different compartmental PK models of rocuronium were used to simulate rocuronium Cp time course values, which were compared with measured Cp values. Prediction error (PE) derivatives of median absolute PE (MDAPE), median PE (MDPE), wobble, divergence absolute PE, and divergence PE were used to assess inaccuracy, bias, intra-individual variability, and time-related trends in APE and PE values. MDAPE and MDPE values were acceptable only for the Magorian and Kleijn models. The divergence PE value for the Kleijn model was lower than -10 %/h, indicating unstable prediction over time. The Szenohradszky model had the lowest divergence PE (-2.7 %/h) and wobble (5.4 %) values with negative bias (MDPE = -25.9 %). These three models were developed using the mixed-effects modeling approach. The Magorian model showed the best PE derivatives among the models assessed. A PK model developed from data obtained after single-bolus dosing can predict Cp values during bolus and continuous infusion. Thus, a mixed-effects modeling approach may be preferable in extrapolating such data.

A novel geometry-dosimetry label fusion method in multi-atlas segmentation for radiotherapy: a proof-of-concept study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Jina; Tian, Zhen; Lu, Weiguo; Gu, Xuejun; Chen, Mingli; Jiang, Steve B.

2017-05-01

Multi-atlas segmentation (MAS) has been widely used to automate the delineation of organs at risk (OARs) for radiotherapy. Label fusion is a crucial step in MAS to cope with the segmentation variabilities among multiple atlases. However, most existing label fusion methods do not consider the potential dosimetric impact of the segmentation result. In this proof-of-concept study, we propose a novel geometry-dosimetry label fusion method for MAS-based OAR auto-contouring, which evaluates the segmentation performance in terms of both geometric accuracy and the dosimetric impact of the segmentation accuracy on the resulting treatment plan. Differently from the original selective and iterative method for performance level estimation (SIMPLE), we evaluated and rejected the atlases based on both Dice similarity coefficient and the predicted error of the dosimetric endpoints. The dosimetric error was predicted using our previously developed geometry-dosimetry model. We tested our method in MAS-based rectum auto-contouring on 20 prostate cancer patients. The accuracy in the rectum sub-volume close to the planning tumor volume (PTV), which was found to be a dosimetric sensitive region of the rectum, was greatly improved. The mean absolute distance between the obtained contour and the physician-drawn contour in the rectum sub-volume 2 mm away from PTV was reduced from 3.96 mm to 3.36 mm on average for the 20 patients, with the maximum decrease found to be from 9.22 mm to 3.75 mm. We also compared the dosimetric endpoints predicted for the obtained contours with those predicted for the physician-drawn contours. Our method led to smaller dosimetric endpoint errors than the SIMPLE method in 15 patients, comparable errors in 2 patients, and slightly larger errors in 3 patients. These results indicated the efficacy of our method in terms of considering both geometric accuracy and dosimetric impact during label fusion. Our algorithm can be applied to different tumor sites and radiation treatments, given a specifically trained geometry-dosimetry model.

A novel geometry-dosimetry label fusion method in multi-atlas segmentation for radiotherapy: a proof-of-concept study.

PubMed

Chang, Jina; Tian, Zhen; Lu, Weiguo; Gu, Xuejun; Chen, Mingli; Jiang, Steve B

2017-05-07

Multi-atlas segmentation (MAS) has been widely used to automate the delineation of organs at risk (OARs) for radiotherapy. Label fusion is a crucial step in MAS to cope with the segmentation variabilities among multiple atlases. However, most existing label fusion methods do not consider the potential dosimetric impact of the segmentation result. In this proof-of-concept study, we propose a novel geometry-dosimetry label fusion method for MAS-based OAR auto-contouring, which evaluates the segmentation performance in terms of both geometric accuracy and the dosimetric impact of the segmentation accuracy on the resulting treatment plan. Differently from the original selective and iterative method for performance level estimation (SIMPLE), we evaluated and rejected the atlases based on both Dice similarity coefficient and the predicted error of the dosimetric endpoints. The dosimetric error was predicted using our previously developed geometry-dosimetry model. We tested our method in MAS-based rectum auto-contouring on 20 prostate cancer patients. The accuracy in the rectum sub-volume close to the planning tumor volume (PTV), which was found to be a dosimetric sensitive region of the rectum, was greatly improved. The mean absolute distance between the obtained contour and the physician-drawn contour in the rectum sub-volume 2 mm away from PTV was reduced from 3.96 mm to 3.36 mm on average for the 20 patients, with the maximum decrease found to be from 9.22 mm to 3.75 mm. We also compared the dosimetric endpoints predicted for the obtained contours with those predicted for the physician-drawn contours. Our method led to smaller dosimetric endpoint errors than the SIMPLE method in 15 patients, comparable errors in 2 patients, and slightly larger errors in 3 patients. These results indicated the efficacy of our method in terms of considering both geometric accuracy and dosimetric impact during label fusion. Our algorithm can be applied to different tumor sites and radiation treatments, given a specifically trained geometry-dosimetry model.

Respiratory motion prediction and prospective correction for free-breathing arterial spin-labeled perfusion MRI of the kidneys.

PubMed

Song, Hao; Ruan, Dan; Liu, Wenyang; Stenger, V Andrew; Pohmann, Rolf; Fernández-Seara, Maria A; Nair, Tejas; Jung, Sungkyu; Luo, Jingqin; Motai, Yuichi; Ma, Jingfei; Hazle, John D; Gach, H Michael

2017-03-01

Respiratory motion prediction using an artificial neural network (ANN) was integrated with pseudocontinuous arterial spin labeling (pCASL) MRI to allow free-breathing perfusion measurements in the kidney. In this study, we evaluated the performance of the ANN to accurately predict the location of the kidneys during image acquisition. A pencil-beam navigator was integrated with a pCASL sequence to measure lung/diaphragm motion during ANN training and the pCASL transit delay. The ANN algorithm ran concurrently in the background to predict organ location during the 0.7-s 15-slice acquisition based on the navigator data. The predictions were supplied to the pulse sequence to prospectively adjust the axial slice acquisition to match the predicted organ location. Additional navigators were acquired immediately after the multislice acquisition to assess the performance and accuracy of the ANN. The technique was tested in eight healthy volunteers. The root-mean-square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) for the eight volunteers were 1.91 ± 0.17 mm and 1.43 ± 0.17 mm, respectively, for the ANN. The RMSE increased with transit delay. The MAE typically increased from the first to last prediction in the image acquisition. The overshoot was 23.58% ± 3.05% using the target prediction accuracy of ± 1 mm. Respiratory motion prediction with prospective motion correction was successfully demonstrated for free-breathing perfusion MRI of the kidney. The method serves as an alternative to multiple breathholds and requires minimal effort from the patient. © 2017 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.

Constraint on Absolute Accuracy of Metacomprehension Assessments: The Anchoring and Adjustment Model vs. the Standards Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kwon, Heekyung

2011-01-01

The objective of this study is to provide a systematic account of three typical phenomena surrounding absolute accuracy of metacomprehension assessments: (1) the absolute accuracy of predictions is typically quite low; (2) there exist individual differences in absolute accuracy of predictions as a function of reading skill; and (3) postdictions…

Demand Forecasting: An Evaluation of DODs Accuracy Metric and Navys Procedures

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

inventory management improvement plan, mean of absolute scaled error, lead time adjusted squared error, forecast accuracy, benchmarking, naïve method...Manager JASA Journal of the American Statistical Association LASE Lead-time Adjusted Squared Error LCI Life Cycle Indicator MA Moving Average MAE...Mean Squared Error xvi NAVSUP Naval Supply Systems Command NDAA National Defense Authorization Act NIIN National Individual Identification Number

Twice cutting method reduces tibial cutting error in unicompartmental knee arthroplasty.

PubMed

Inui, Hiroshi; Taketomi, Shuji; Yamagami, Ryota; Sanada, Takaki; Tanaka, Sakae

2016-01-01

Bone cutting error can be one of the causes of malalignment in unicompartmental knee arthroplasty (UKA). The amount of cutting error in total knee arthroplasty has been reported. However, none have investigated cutting error in UKA. The purpose of this study was to reveal the amount of cutting error in UKA when open cutting guide was used and clarify whether cutting the tibia horizontally twice using the same cutting guide reduced the cutting errors in UKA. We measured the alignment of the tibial cutting guides, the first-cut cutting surfaces and the second cut cutting surfaces using the navigation system in 50 UKAs. Cutting error was defined as the angular difference between the cutting guide and cutting surface. The mean absolute first-cut cutting error was 1.9° (1.1° varus) in the coronal plane and 1.1° (0.6° anterior slope) in the sagittal plane, whereas the mean absolute second-cut cutting error was 1.1° (0.6° varus) in the coronal plane and 1.1° (0.4° anterior slope) in the sagittal plane. Cutting the tibia horizontally twice reduced the cutting errors in the coronal plane significantly (P<0.05). Our study demonstrated that in UKA, cutting the tibia horizontally twice using the same cutting guide reduced cutting error in the coronal plane. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Benchmarking the Performance of Exchange-Correlation Functionals for Predicting Two-Photon Absorption Strengths.

PubMed

Beerepoot, Maarten T P; Alam, Md Mehboob; Bednarska, Joanna; Bartkowiak, Wojciech; Ruud, Kenneth; Zaleśny, Robert

2018-06-15

The present work investigates the performance of exchange-correlation functionals in the prediction of two-photon absorption (2PA) strengths. For this purpose, we considered six common functionals used for studying 2PA processes and tested these on six organoboron chelates. The set consisted of two semilocal (PBE and BLYP), two hybrid (B3LYP and PBE0), and two range-separated (LC-BLYP and CAM-B3LYP) functionals. The RI-CC2 method was chosen as a reference level and was found to give results consistent with the experimental data that are available for three of the molecules considered. Of the six exchange-correlation functionals studied, only the range-separated functionals predict an ordering of the 2PA strengths that is consistent with experimental and RI-CC2 results. Even though the range-separated functionals predict correct relative trends, the absolute values for the 2PA strengths are underestimated by a factor of 2-6 for the molecules considered. An in-depth analysis, on the basis of the derived generalized few-state model expression for the 2PA strength for a coupled-cluster wave function, reveals that the problem with these functionals can be linked to underestimated excited-state dipole moments and, to a lesser extent, overestimated excitation energies. The semilocal and hybrid functionals exhibit less predictable errors and a variation in the 2PA strengths in disagreement with the reference results. The semilocal and hybrid functionals show smaller average errors than the range-separated functionals, but our analysis reveals that this is due to fortuitous error cancellation between excitation energies and the transition dipole moments. Our results constitute a warning against using currently available exchange-correlation functionals in the prediction of 2PA strengths and highlight the need for functionals that correctly describe the electron density of excited electronic states.

The Crucial Role of Error Correlation for Uncertainty Modeling of CFD-Based Aerodynamics Increments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hemsch, Michael J.; Walker, Eric L.

2011-01-01

The Ares I ascent aerodynamics database for Design Cycle 3 (DAC-3) was built from wind-tunnel test results and CFD solutions. The wind tunnel results were used to build the baseline response surfaces for wind-tunnel Reynolds numbers at power-off conditions. The CFD solutions were used to build increments to account for Reynolds number effects. We calculate the validation errors for the primary CFD code results at wind tunnel Reynolds number power-off conditions and would like to be able to use those errors to predict the validation errors for the CFD increments. However, the validation errors are large compared to the increments. We suggest a way forward that is consistent with common practice in wind tunnel testing which is to assume that systematic errors in the measurement process and/or the environment will subtract out when increments are calculated, thus making increments more reliable with smaller uncertainty than absolute values of the aerodynamic coefficients. A similar practice has arisen for the use of CFD to generate aerodynamic database increments. The basis of this practice is the assumption of strong correlation of the systematic errors inherent in each of the results used to generate an increment. The assumption of strong correlation is the inferential link between the observed validation uncertainties at wind-tunnel Reynolds numbers and the uncertainties to be predicted for flight. In this paper, we suggest a way to estimate the correlation coefficient and demonstrate the approach using code-to-code differences that were obtained for quality control purposes during the Ares I CFD campaign. Finally, since we can expect the increments to be relatively small compared to the baseline response surface and to be typically of the order of the baseline uncertainty, we find that it is necessary to be able to show that the correlation coefficients are close to unity to avoid overinflating the overall database uncertainty with the addition of the increments.

An Ensemble System Based on Hybrid EGARCH-ANN with Different Distributional Assumptions to Predict S&P 500 Intraday Volatility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lahmiri, S.; Boukadoum, M.

2015-10-01

Accurate forecasting of stock market volatility is an important issue in portfolio risk management. In this paper, an ensemble system for stock market volatility is presented. It is composed of three different models that hybridize the exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) process and the artificial neural network trained with the backpropagation algorithm (BPNN) to forecast stock market volatility under normal, t-Student, and generalized error distribution (GED) assumption separately. The goal is to design an ensemble system where each single hybrid model is capable to capture normality, excess skewness, or excess kurtosis in the data to achieve complementarity. The performance of each EGARCH-BPNN and the ensemble system is evaluated by the closeness of the volatility forecasts to realized volatility. Based on mean absolute error and mean of squared errors, the experimental results show that proposed ensemble model used to capture normality, skewness, and kurtosis in data is more accurate than the individual EGARCH-BPNN models in forecasting the S&P 500 intra-day volatility based on one and five-minute time horizons data.

Estimation of the daily global solar radiation based on the Gaussian process regression methodology in the Saharan climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guermoui, Mawloud; Gairaa, Kacem; Rabehi, Abdelaziz; Djafer, Djelloul; Benkaciali, Said

2018-06-01

Accurate estimation of solar radiation is the major concern in renewable energy applications. Over the past few years, a lot of machine learning paradigms have been proposed in order to improve the estimation performances, mostly based on artificial neural networks, fuzzy logic, support vector machine and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system. The aim of this work is the prediction of the daily global solar radiation, received on a horizontal surface through the Gaussian process regression (GPR) methodology. A case study of Ghardaïa region (Algeria) has been used in order to validate the above methodology. In fact, several combinations have been tested; it was found that, GPR-model based on sunshine duration, minimum air temperature and relative humidity gives the best results in term of mean absolute bias error (MBE), root mean square error (RMSE), relative mean square error (rRMSE), and correlation coefficient ( r) . The obtained values of these indicators are 0.67 MJ/m2, 1.15 MJ/m2, 5.2%, and 98.42%, respectively.

Modeling of surface dust concentrations using neural networks and kriging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buevich, Alexander G.; Medvedev, Alexander N.; Sergeev, Alexander P.; Tarasov, Dmitry A.; Shichkin, Andrey V.; Sergeeva, Marina V.; Atanasova, T. B.

2016-12-01

Creating models which are able to accurately predict the distribution of pollutants based on a limited set of input data is an important task in environmental studies. In the paper two neural approaches: (multilayer perceptron (MLP)) and generalized regression neural network (GRNN)), and two geostatistical approaches: (kriging and cokriging), are using for modeling and forecasting of dust concentrations in snow cover. The area of study is under the influence of dust emissions from a copper quarry and a several industrial companies. The comparison of two mentioned approaches is conducted. Three indices are used as the indicators of the models accuracy: the mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE) and relative root mean square error (RRMSE). Models based on artificial neural networks (ANN) have shown better accuracy. When considering all indices, the most precision model was the GRNN, which uses as input parameters for modeling the coordinates of sampling points and the distance to the probable emissions source. The results of work confirm that trained ANN may be more suitable tool for modeling of dust concentrations in snow cover.

Altitude Registration of Limb-Scattered Radiation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moy, Leslie; Bhartia, Pawan K.; Jaross, Glen; Loughman, Robert; Kramarova, Natalya; Chen, Zhong; Taha, Ghassan; Chen, Grace; Xu, Philippe

2017-01-01

One of the largest constraints to the retrieval of accurate ozone profiles from UV backscatter limb sounding sensors is altitude registration. Two methods, the Rayleigh scattering attitude sensing (RSAS) and absolute radiance residual method (ARRM), are able to determine altitude registration to the accuracy necessary for long-term ozone monitoring. The methods compare model calculations of radiances to measured radiances and are independent of onboard tracking devices. RSAS determines absolute altitude errors, but, because the method is susceptible to aerosol interference, it is limited to latitudes and time periods with minimal aerosol contamination. ARRM, a new technique introduced in this paper, can be applied across all seasons and altitudes. However, it is only appropriate for relative altitude error estimates. The application of RSAS to Limb Profiler (LP) measurements from the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) on board the Suomi NPP (SNPP) satellite indicates tangent height (TH) errors greater than 1 km with an absolute accuracy of +/-200 m. Results using ARRM indicate a approx. 300 to 400m intra-orbital TH change varying seasonally +/-100 m, likely due to either errors in the spacecraft pointing or in the geopotential height (GPH) data that we use in our analysis. ARRM shows a change of approx. 200m over 5 years with a relative accuracy (a long-term accuracy) of 100m outside the polar regions.

Feasibility of predicting tumor motion using online data acquired during treatment and a generalized neural network optimized with offline patient tumor trajectories.

PubMed

Teo, Troy P; Ahmed, Syed Bilal; Kawalec, Philip; Alayoubi, Nadia; Bruce, Neil; Lyn, Ethan; Pistorius, Stephen

2018-02-01

The accurate prediction of intrafraction lung tumor motion is required to compensate for system latency in image-guided adaptive radiotherapy systems. The goal of this study was to identify an optimal prediction model that has a short learning period so that prediction and adaptation can commence soon after treatment begins, and requires minimal reoptimization for individual patients. Specifically, the feasibility of predicting tumor position using a combination of a generalized (i.e., averaged) neural network, optimized using historical patient data (i.e., tumor trajectories) obtained offline, coupled with the use of real-time online tumor positions (obtained during treatment delivery) was examined. A 3-layer perceptron neural network was implemented to predict tumor motion for a prediction horizon of 650 ms. A backpropagation algorithm and batch gradient descent approach were used to train the model. Twenty-seven 1-min lung tumor motion samples (selected from a CyberKnife patient dataset) were sampled at a rate of 7.5 Hz (0.133 s) to emulate the frame rate of an electronic portal imaging device (EPID). A sliding temporal window was used to sample the data for learning. The sliding window length was set to be equivalent to the first breathing cycle detected from each trajectory. Performing a parametric sweep, an averaged error surface of mean square errors (MSE) was obtained from the prediction responses of seven trajectories used for the training of the model (Group 1). An optimal input data size and number of hidden neurons were selected to represent the generalized model. To evaluate the prediction performance of the generalized model on unseen data, twenty tumor traces (Group 2) that were not involved in the training of the model were used for the leave-one-out cross-validation purposes. An input data size of 35 samples (4.6 s) and 20 hidden neurons were selected for the generalized neural network. An average sliding window length of 28 data samples was used. The average initial learning period prior to the availability of the first predicted tumor position was 8.53 ± 1.03 s. Average mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.59 ± 0.13 mm and 0.56 ± 0.18 mm were obtained from Groups 1 and 2, respectively, giving an overall MAE of 0.57 ± 0.17 mm. Average root-mean-square-error (RMSE) of 0.67 ± 0.36 for all the traces (0.76 ± 0.34 mm, Group 1 and 0.63 ± 0.36 mm, Group 2), is comparable to previously published results. Prediction errors are mainly due to the irregular periodicities between cycles. Since the errors from Groups 1 and 2 are within the same range, it demonstrates that this model can generalize and predict on unseen data. This is a first attempt to use an averaged MSE error surface (obtained from the prediction of different patients' tumor trajectories) to determine the parameters of a generalized neural network. This network could be deployed as a plug-and-play predictor for tumor trajectory during treatment delivery, eliminating the need for optimizing individual networks with pretreatment patient data. © 2017 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.

Performance modeling and valuation of snow-covered PV systems: examination of a simplified approach to decrease forecasting error.

PubMed

Bosman, Lisa B; Darling, Seth B

2018-06-01

The advent of modern solar energy technologies can improve the costs of energy consumption on a global, national, and regional level, ultimately spanning stakeholders from governmental entities to utility companies, corporations, and residential homeowners. For those stakeholders experiencing the four seasons, accurately accounting for snow-related energy losses is important for effectively predicting photovoltaic performance energy generation and valuation. This paper provides an examination of a new, simplified approach to decrease snow-related forecasting error, in comparison to current solar energy performance models. A new method is proposed to allow model designers, and ultimately users, the opportunity to better understand the return on investment for solar energy systems located in snowy environments. The new method is validated using two different sets of solar energy systems located near Green Bay, WI, USA: a 3.0-kW micro inverter system and a 13.2-kW central inverter system. Both systems were unobstructed, facing south, and set at a tilt of 26.56°. Data were collected beginning in May 2014 (micro inverter system) and October 2014 (central inverter system), through January 2018. In comparison to reference industry standard solar energy prediction applications (PVWatts and PVsyst), the new method results in lower mean absolute percent errors per kilowatt hour of 0.039 and 0.055%, respectively, for the micro inverter system and central inverter system. The statistical analysis provides support for incorporating this new method into freely available, online, up-to-date prediction applications, such as PVWatts and PVsyst.

Artificial Neural Network to Predict Vine Water Status Spatial Variability Using Multispectral Information Obtained from an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV)

PubMed Central

Bardeen, Matthew

2017-01-01

Water stress, which affects yield and wine quality, is often evaluated using the midday stem water potential (Ψstem). However, this measurement is acquired on a per plant basis and does not account for the assessment of vine water status spatial variability. The use of multispectral cameras mounted on unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) is capable to capture the variability of vine water stress in a whole field scenario. It has been reported that conventional multispectral indices (CMI) that use information between 500–800 nm, do not accurately predict plant water status since they are not sensitive to water content. The objective of this study was to develop artificial neural network (ANN) models derived from multispectral images to predict the Ψstem spatial variability of a drip-irrigated Carménère vineyard in Talca, Maule Region, Chile. The coefficient of determination (R2) obtained between ANN outputs and ground-truth measurements of Ψstem were between 0.56–0.87, with the best performance observed for the model that included the bands 550, 570, 670, 700 and 800 nm. Validation analysis indicated that the ANN model could estimate Ψstem with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.1 MPa, root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.12 MPa, and relative error (RE) of −9.1%. For the validation of the CMI, the MAE, RMSE and RE values were between 0.26–0.27 MPa, 0.32–0.34 MPa and −24.2–25.6%, respectively. PMID:29084169

Artificial Neural Network to Predict Vine Water Status Spatial Variability Using Multispectral Information Obtained from an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV).

PubMed

Poblete, Tomas; Ortega-Farías, Samuel; Moreno, Miguel Angel; Bardeen, Matthew

2017-10-30

Water stress, which affects yield and wine quality, is often evaluated using the midday stem water potential (Ψ stem ). However, this measurement is acquired on a per plant basis and does not account for the assessment of vine water status spatial variability. The use of multispectral cameras mounted on unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) is capable to capture the variability of vine water stress in a whole field scenario. It has been reported that conventional multispectral indices (CMI) that use information between 500-800 nm, do not accurately predict plant water status since they are not sensitive to water content. The objective of this study was to develop artificial neural network (ANN) models derived from multispectral images to predict the Ψ stem spatial variability of a drip-irrigated Carménère vineyard in Talca, Maule Region, Chile. The coefficient of determination (R²) obtained between ANN outputs and ground-truth measurements of Ψ stem were between 0.56-0.87, with the best performance observed for the model that included the bands 550, 570, 670, 700 and 800 nm. Validation analysis indicated that the ANN model could estimate Ψ stem with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.1 MPa, root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.12 MPa, and relative error (RE) of -9.1%. For the validation of the CMI, the MAE, RMSE and RE values were between 0.26-0.27 MPa, 0.32-0.34 MPa and -24.2-25.6%, respectively.

The absolute radiometric calibration of the advanced very high resolution radiometer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Slater, P. N.; Teillet, P. M.; Ding, Y.

1988-01-01

The need for independent, redundant absolute radiometric calibration methods is discussed with reference to the Thematic Mapper. Uncertainty requirements for absolute calibration of between 0.5 and 4 percent are defined based on the accuracy of reflectance retrievals at an agricultural site. It is shown that even very approximate atmospheric corrections can reduce the error in reflectance retrieval to 0.02 over the reflectance range 0 to 0.4.

Energy and Quality-Aware Multimedia Signal Processing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emre, Yunus

Today's mobile devices have to support computation-intensive multimedia applications with a limited energy budget. In this dissertation, we present architecture level and algorithm-level techniques that reduce energy consumption of these devices with minimal impact on system quality. First, we present novel techniques to mitigate the effects of SRAM memory failures in JPEG2000 implementations operating in scaled voltages. We investigate error control coding schemes and propose an unequal error protection scheme tailored for JPEG2000 that reduces overhead without affecting the performance. Furthermore, we propose algorithm-specific techniques for error compensation that exploit the fact that in JPEG2000 the discrete wavelet transform outputs have larger values for low frequency subband coefficients and smaller values for high frequency subband coefficients. Next, we present use of voltage overscaling to reduce the data-path power consumption of JPEG codecs. We propose an algorithm-specific technique which exploits the characteristics of the quantized coefficients after zig-zag scan to mitigate errors introduced by aggressive voltage scaling. Third, we investigate the effect of reducing dynamic range for datapath energy reduction. We analyze the effect of truncation error and propose a scheme that estimates the mean value of the truncation error during the pre-computation stage and compensates for this error. Such a scheme is very effective for reducing the noise power in applications that are dominated by additions and multiplications such as FIR filter and transform computation. We also present a novel sum of absolute difference (SAD) scheme that is based on most significant bit truncation. The proposed scheme exploits the fact that most of the absolute difference (AD) calculations result in small values, and most of the large AD values do not contribute to the SAD values of the blocks that are selected. Such a scheme is highly effective in reducing the energy consumption of motion estimation and intra-prediction kernels in video codecs. Finally, we present several hybrid energy-saving techniques based on combination of voltage scaling, computation reduction and dynamic range reduction that further reduce the energy consumption while keeping the performance degradation very low. For instance, a combination of computation reduction and dynamic range reduction for Discrete Cosine Transform shows on average, 33% to 46% reduction in energy consumption while incurring only 0.5dB to 1.5dB loss in PSNR.

Semi-empirical model for retrieval of soil moisture using RISAT-1 C-Band SAR data over a sub-tropical semi-arid area of Rewari district, Haryana (India)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rawat, Kishan Singh; Sehgal, Vinay Kumar; Pradhan, Sanatan; Ray, Shibendu S.

2018-03-01

We have estimated soil moisture (SM) by using circular horizontal polarization backscattering coefficient (σ o_{RH}), differences of circular vertical and horizontal σ o (σ o_{RV} {-} σ o_{RH}) from FRS-1 data of Radar Imaging Satellite (RISAT-1) and surface roughness in terms of RMS height ({RMS}_{height}). We examined the performance of FRS-1 in retrieving SM under wheat crop at tillering stage. Results revealed that it is possible to develop a good semi-empirical model (SEM) to estimate SM of the upper soil layer using RISAT-1 SAR data rather than using existing empirical model based on only single parameter, i.e., σ o. Near surface SM measurements were related to σ o_{RH}, σ o_{RV} {-} σ o_{RH} derived using 5.35 GHz (C-band) image of RISAT-1 and {RMS}_{height}. The roughness component derived in terms of {RMS}_{height} showed a good positive correlation with σ o_{RV} {-} σ o_{RH} (R2 = 0.65). By considering all the major influencing factors (σ o_{RH}, σ o_{RV} {-} σ o_{RH}, and {RMS}_{height}), an SEM was developed where SM (volumetric) predicted values depend on σ o_{RH}, σ o_{RV} {-} σ o_{RH}, and {RMS}_{height}. This SEM showed R2 of 0.87 and adjusted R2 of 0.85, multiple R=0.94 and with standard error of 0.05 at 95% confidence level. Validation of the SM derived from semi-empirical model with observed measurement ({SM}_{Observed}) showed root mean square error (RMSE) = 0.06, relative-RMSE (R-RMSE) = 0.18, mean absolute error (MAE) = 0.04, normalized RMSE (NRMSE) = 0.17, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) = 0.91 ({≈ } 1), index of agreement (d) = 1, coefficient of determination (R2) = 0.87, mean bias error (MBE) = 0.04, standard error of estimate (SEE) = 0.10, volume error (VE) = 0.15, variance of the distribution of differences ({S}d2) = 0.004. The developed SEM showed better performance in estimating SM than Topp empirical model which is based only on σ o. By using the developed SEM, top soil SM can be estimated with low mean absolute percent error (MAPE) = 1.39 and can be used for operational applications.

Assessing the accuracy of ANFIS, EEMD-GRNN, PCR, and MLR models in predicting PM2.5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ausati, Shadi; Amanollahi, Jamil

2016-10-01

Since Sanandaj is considered one of polluted cities of Iran, prediction of any type of pollution especially prediction of suspended particles of PM2.5, which are the cause of many diseases, could contribute to health of society by timely announcements and prior to increase of PM2.5. In order to predict PM2.5 concentration in the Sanandaj air the hybrid models consisting of an ensemble empirical mode decomposition and general regression neural network (EEMD-GRNN), Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), principal component regression (PCR), and linear model such as multiple liner regression (MLR) model were used. In these models the data of suspended particles of PM2.5 were the dependent variable and the data related to air quality including PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2, CO, O3 and meteorological data including average minimum temperature (Min T), average maximum temperature (Max T), average atmospheric pressure (AP), daily total precipitation (TP), daily relative humidity level of the air (RH) and daily wind speed (WS) for the year 2014 in Sanandaj were the independent variables. Among the used models, EEMD-GRNN model with values of R2 = 0.90, root mean square error (RMSE) = 4.9218 and mean absolute error (MAE) = 3.4644 in the training phase and with values of R2 = 0.79, RMSE = 5.0324 and MAE = 3.2565 in the testing phase, exhibited the best function in predicting this phenomenon. It can be concluded that hybrid models have accurate results to predict PM2.5 concentration compared with linear model.

Accounting for hardware imperfections in EIT image reconstruction algorithms.

PubMed

Hartinger, Alzbeta E; Gagnon, Hervé; Guardo, Robert

2007-07-01

Electrical impedance tomography (EIT) is a non-invasive technique for imaging the conductivity distribution of a body section. Different types of EIT images can be reconstructed: absolute, time difference and frequency difference. Reconstruction algorithms are sensitive to many errors which translate into image artefacts. These errors generally result from incorrect modelling or inaccurate measurements. Every reconstruction algorithm incorporates a model of the physical set-up which must be as accurate as possible since any discrepancy with the actual set-up will cause image artefacts. Several methods have been proposed in the literature to improve the model realism, such as creating anatomical-shaped meshes, adding a complete electrode model and tracking changes in electrode contact impedances and positions. Absolute and frequency difference reconstruction algorithms are particularly sensitive to measurement errors and generally assume that measurements are made with an ideal EIT system. Real EIT systems have hardware imperfections that cause measurement errors. These errors translate into image artefacts since the reconstruction algorithm cannot properly discriminate genuine measurement variations produced by the medium under study from those caused by hardware imperfections. We therefore propose a method for eliminating these artefacts by integrating a model of the system hardware imperfections into the reconstruction algorithms. The effectiveness of the method has been evaluated by reconstructing absolute, time difference and frequency difference images with and without the hardware model from data acquired on a resistor mesh phantom. Results have shown that artefacts are smaller for images reconstructed with the model, especially for frequency difference imaging.

[Application of wavelet neural networks model to forecast incidence of syphilis].

PubMed

Zhou, Xian-Feng; Feng, Zi-Jian; Yang, Wei-Zhong; Li, Xiao-Song

2011-07-01

To apply Wavelet Neural Networks (WNN) model to forecast incidence of Syphilis. Back Propagation Neural Network (BPNN) and WNN were developed based on the monthly incidence of Syphilis in Sichuan province from 2004 to 2008. The accuracy of forecast was compared between the two models. In the training approximation, the mean absolute error (MAE), rooted mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were 0.0719, 0.0862 and 11.52% respectively for WNN, and 0.0892, 0.1183 and 14.87% respectively for BPNN. The three indexes for generalization of models were 0.0497, 0.0513 and 4.60% for WNN, and 0.0816, 0.1119 and 7.25% for BPNN. WNN is a better model for short-term forecasting of Syphilis.

Selection of Hidden Layer Neurons and Best Training Method for FFNN in Application of Long Term Load Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Navneet K.; Singh, Asheesh K.; Tripathy, Manoj

2012-05-01

For power industries electricity load forecast plays an important role for real-time control, security, optimal unit commitment, economic scheduling, maintenance, energy management, and plant structure planning etc. A new technique for long term load forecasting (LTLF) using optimized feed forward artificial neural network (FFNN) architecture is presented in this paper, which selects optimal number of neurons in the hidden layer as well as the best training method for the case study. The prediction performance of proposed technique is evaluated using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of Thailand private electricity consumption and forecasted data. The results obtained are compared with the results of classical auto-regressive (AR) and moving average (MA) methods. It is, in general, observed that the proposed method is prediction wise more accurate.

Time series model for forecasting the number of new admission inpatients.

PubMed

Zhou, Lingling; Zhao, Ping; Wu, Dongdong; Cheng, Cheng; Huang, Hao

2018-06-15

Hospital crowding is a rising problem, effective predicting and detecting managment can helpful to reduce crowding. Our team has successfully proposed a hybrid model combining both the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and the nonlinear autoregressive neural network (NARNN) models in the schistosomiasis and hand, foot, and mouth disease forecasting study. In this paper, our aim is to explore the application of the hybrid ARIMA-NARNN model to track the trends of the new admission inpatients, which provides a methodological basis for reducing crowding. We used the single seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA), NARNN and the hybrid SARIMA-NARNN model to fit and forecast the monthly and daily number of new admission inpatients. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were used to compare the forecasting performance among the three models. The modeling time range of monthly data included was from January 2010 to June 2016, July to October 2016 as the corresponding testing data set. The daily modeling data set was from January 4 to September 4, 2016, while the testing time range included was from September 5 to October 2, 2016. For the monthly data, the modeling RMSE and the testing RMSE, MAE and MAPE of SARIMA-NARNN model were less than those obtained from the single SARIMA or NARNN model, but the MAE and MAPE of modeling performance of SARIMA-NARNN model did not improve. For the daily data, all RMSE, MAE and MAPE of NARNN model were the lowest both in modeling stage and testing stage. Hybrid model does not necessarily outperform its constituents' performances. It is worth attempting to explore the reliable model to forecast the number of new admission inpatients from different data.

Simulation of size-exclusion chromatography distribution coefficients of comb-shaped molecules in spherical pores comparison of simulation and experiment.

PubMed

Radke, Wolfgang

2004-03-05

Simulations of the distribution coefficients of linear polymers and regular combs with various spacings between the arms have been performed. The distribution coefficients were plotted as a function of the number of segments in order to compare the size exclusion chromatography (SEC)-elution behavior of combs relative to linear molecules. By comparing the simulated SEC-calibration curves it is possible to predict the elution behavior of comb-shaped polymers relative to linear ones. In order to compare the results obtained by computer simulations with experimental data, a variety of comb-shaped polymers varying in side chain length, spacing between the side chains and molecular weights of the backbone were analyzed by SEC with light-scattering detection. It was found that the computer simulations could predict the molecular weights of linear molecules having the same retention volume with an accuracy of about 10%, i.e. the error in the molecular weight obtained by calculating the molecular weight of the comb-polymer based on a calibration curve constructed using linear standards and the results of the computer simulations are of the same magnitude as the experimental error of absolute molecular weight determination.

A hybrid approach to estimate the complex motions of clouds in sky images

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong

Tracking the motion of clouds is essential to forecasting the weather and to predicting the short-term solar energy generation. Existing techniques mainly fall into two categories: variational optical flow, and block matching. In this article, we summarize recent advances in estimating cloud motion using ground-based sky imagers and quantitatively evaluate state-of-the-art approaches. Then we propose a hybrid tracking framework to incorporate the strength of both block matching and optical flow models. To validate the accuracy of the proposed approach, we introduce a series of synthetic images to simulate the cloud movement and deformation, and thereafter comprehensively compare our hybrid approachmore » with several representative tracking algorithms over both simulated and real images collected from various sites/imagers. The results show that our hybrid approach outperforms state-of-the-art models by reducing at least 30% motion estimation errors compared with the ground-truth motions in most of simulated image sequences. Furthermore, our hybrid model demonstrates its superior efficiency in several real cloud image datasets by lowering at least 15% Mean Absolute Error (MAE) between predicted images and ground-truth images.« less

A hybrid approach to estimate the complex motions of clouds in sky images

DOE PAGES

Peng, Zhenzhou; Yu, Dantong; Huang, Dong; ...

2016-09-14

Tracking the motion of clouds is essential to forecasting the weather and to predicting the short-term solar energy generation. Existing techniques mainly fall into two categories: variational optical flow, and block matching. In this article, we summarize recent advances in estimating cloud motion using ground-based sky imagers and quantitatively evaluate state-of-the-art approaches. Then we propose a hybrid tracking framework to incorporate the strength of both block matching and optical flow models. To validate the accuracy of the proposed approach, we introduce a series of synthetic images to simulate the cloud movement and deformation, and thereafter comprehensively compare our hybrid approachmore » with several representative tracking algorithms over both simulated and real images collected from various sites/imagers. The results show that our hybrid approach outperforms state-of-the-art models by reducing at least 30% motion estimation errors compared with the ground-truth motions in most of simulated image sequences. Furthermore, our hybrid model demonstrates its superior efficiency in several real cloud image datasets by lowering at least 15% Mean Absolute Error (MAE) between predicted images and ground-truth images.« less

A support vector regression-firefly algorithm-based model for limiting velocity prediction in sewer pipes.

PubMed

Ebtehaj, Isa; Bonakdari, Hossein

2016-01-01

Sediment transport without deposition is an essential consideration in the optimum design of sewer pipes. In this study, a novel method based on a combination of support vector regression (SVR) and the firefly algorithm (FFA) is proposed to predict the minimum velocity required to avoid sediment settling in pipe channels, which is expressed as the densimetric Froude number (Fr). The efficiency of support vector machine (SVM) models depends on the suitable selection of SVM parameters. In this particular study, FFA is used by determining these SVM parameters. The actual effective parameters on Fr calculation are generally identified by employing dimensional analysis. The different dimensionless variables along with the models are introduced. The best performance is attributed to the model that employs the sediment volumetric concentration (C(V)), ratio of relative median diameter of particles to hydraulic radius (d/R), dimensionless particle number (D(gr)) and overall sediment friction factor (λ(s)) parameters to estimate Fr. The performance of the SVR-FFA model is compared with genetic programming, artificial neural network and existing regression-based equations. The results indicate the superior performance of SVR-FFA (mean absolute percentage error = 2.123%; root mean square error =0.116) compared with other methods.

Implementations of geographically weighted lasso in spatial data with multicollinearity (Case study: Poverty modeling of Java Island)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Setiyorini, Anis; Suprijadi, Jadi; Handoko, Budhi

2017-03-01

Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) is a regression model that takes into account the spatial heterogeneity effect. In the application of the GWR, inference on regression coefficients is often of interest, as is estimation and prediction of the response variable. Empirical research and studies have demonstrated that local correlation between explanatory variables can lead to estimated regression coefficients in GWR that are strongly correlated, a condition named multicollinearity. It later results on a large standard error on estimated regression coefficients, and, hence, problematic for inference on relationships between variables. Geographically Weighted Lasso (GWL) is a method which capable to deal with spatial heterogeneity and local multicollinearity in spatial data sets. GWL is a further development of GWR method, which adds a LASSO (Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator) constraint in parameter estimation. In this study, GWL will be applied by using fixed exponential kernel weights matrix to establish a poverty modeling of Java Island, Indonesia. The results of applying the GWL to poverty datasets show that this method stabilizes regression coefficients in the presence of multicollinearity and produces lower prediction and estimation error of the response variable than GWR does.

Neural network approach to quantum-chemistry data: accurate prediction of density functional theory energies.

PubMed

Balabin, Roman M; Lomakina, Ekaterina I

2009-08-21

Artificial neural network (ANN) approach has been applied to estimate the density functional theory (DFT) energy with large basis set using lower-level energy values and molecular descriptors. A total of 208 different molecules were used for the ANN training, cross validation, and testing by applying BLYP, B3LYP, and BMK density functionals. Hartree-Fock results were reported for comparison. Furthermore, constitutional molecular descriptor (CD) and quantum-chemical molecular descriptor (QD) were used for building the calibration model. The neural network structure optimization, leading to four to five hidden neurons, was also carried out. The usage of several low-level energy values was found to greatly reduce the prediction error. An expected error, mean absolute deviation, for ANN approximation to DFT energies was 0.6+/-0.2 kcal mol(-1). In addition, the comparison of the different density functionals with the basis sets and the comparison of multiple linear regression results were also provided. The CDs were found to overcome limitation of the QD. Furthermore, the effective ANN model for DFT/6-311G(3df,3pd) and DFT/6-311G(2df,2pd) energy estimation was developed, and the benchmark results were provided.

Multi-step prediction for influenza outbreak by an adjusted long short-term memory.

PubMed

Zhang, J; Nawata, K

2018-05-01

Influenza results in approximately 3-5 million annual cases of severe illness and 250 000-500 000 deaths. We urgently need an accurate multi-step-ahead time-series forecasting model to help hospitals to perform dynamical assignments of beds to influenza patients for the annually varied influenza season, and aid pharmaceutical companies to formulate a flexible plan of manufacturing vaccine for the yearly different influenza vaccine. In this study, we utilised four different multi-step prediction algorithms in the long short-term memory (LSTM). The result showed that implementing multiple single-output prediction in a six-layer LSTM structure achieved the best accuracy. The mean absolute percentage errors from two- to 13-step-ahead prediction for the US influenza-like illness rates were all <15%, averagely 12.930%. To the best of our knowledge, it is the first time that LSTM has been applied and refined to perform multi-step-ahead prediction for influenza outbreaks. Hopefully, this modelling methodology can be applied in other countries and therefore help prevent and control influenza worldwide.

Transfer of absolute and relative predictiveness in human contingency learning.

PubMed

Kattner, Florian

2015-03-01

Previous animal-learning studies have shown that the effect of the predictive history of a cue on its associability depends on whether priority was set to the absolute or relative predictiveness of that cue. The present study tested this assumption in a human contingency-learning task. In both experiments, one group of participants was trained with predictive and nonpredictive cues that were presented according to an absolute-predictiveness principle (either continuously or partially reinforced cue configurations), whereas a second group was trained with co-occurring cues that differed in predictiveness (emphasizing the relative predictive validity of the cues). In both groups, later test discriminations were learned more readily if the discriminative cues had been predictive in the previous learning stage than if they had been nonpredictive. These results imply that both the absolute and relative predictiveness of a cue lead positive transfer with regard to its associability. The data are discussed with respect to attentional models of associative learning.

Estimating error statistics for Chambon-la-Forêt observatory definitive data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lesur, Vincent; Heumez, Benoît; Telali, Abdelkader; Lalanne, Xavier; Soloviev, Anatoly

2017-08-01

We propose a new algorithm for calibrating definitive observatory data with the goal of providing users with estimates of the data error standard deviations (SDs). The algorithm has been implemented and tested using Chambon-la-Forêt observatory (CLF) data. The calibration process uses all available data. It is set as a large, weakly non-linear, inverse problem that ultimately provides estimates of baseline values in three orthogonal directions, together with their expected standard deviations. For this inverse problem, absolute data error statistics are estimated from two series of absolute measurements made within a day. Similarly, variometer data error statistics are derived by comparing variometer data time series between different pairs of instruments over few years. The comparisons of these time series led us to use an autoregressive process of order 1 (AR1 process) as a prior for the baselines. Therefore the obtained baselines do not vary smoothly in time. They have relatively small SDs, well below 300 pT when absolute data are recorded twice a week - i.e. within the daily to weekly measures recommended by INTERMAGNET. The algorithm was tested against the process traditionally used to derive baselines at CLF observatory, suggesting that statistics are less favourable when this latter process is used. Finally, two sets of definitive data were calibrated using the new algorithm. Their comparison shows that the definitive data SDs are less than 400 pT and may be slightly overestimated by our process: an indication that more work is required to have proper estimates of absolute data error statistics. For magnetic field modelling, the results show that even on isolated sites like CLF observatory, there are very localised signals over a large span of temporal frequencies that can be as large as 1 nT. The SDs reported here encompass signals of a few hundred metres and less than a day wavelengths.

Evaluation of limited sampling models for prediction of oral midazolam AUC for CYP3A phenotyping and drug interaction studies.

PubMed

Mueller, Silke C; Drewelow, Bernd

2013-05-01

The area under the concentration-time curve (AUC) after oral midazolam administration is commonly used for cytochrome P450 (CYP) 3A phenotyping studies. The aim of this investigation was to evaluate a limited sampling strategy for the prediction of AUC with oral midazolam. A total of 288 concentration-time profiles from 123 healthy volunteers who participated in four previously performed drug interaction studies with intense sampling after a single oral dose of 7.5 mg midazolam were available for evaluation. Of these, 45 profiles served for model building, which was performed by stepwise multiple linear regression, and the remaining 243 datasets served for validation. Mean prediction error (MPE), mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean squared error (RMSE) were calculated to determine bias and precision The one- to four-sampling point models with the best coefficient of correlation were the one-sampling point model (8 h; r (2) = 0.84), the two-sampling point model (0.5 and 8 h; r (2) = 0.93), the three-sampling point model (0.5, 2, and 8 h; r (2) = 0.96), and the four-sampling point model (0.5,1, 2, and 8 h; r (2) = 0.97). However, the one- and two-sampling point models were unable to predict the midazolam AUC due to unacceptable bias and precision. Only the four-sampling point model predicted the very low and very high midazolam AUC of the validation dataset with acceptable precision and bias. The four-sampling point model was also able to predict the geometric mean ratio of the treatment phase over the baseline (with 90 % confidence interval) results of three drug interaction studies in the categories of strong, moderate, and mild induction, as well as no interaction. A four-sampling point limited sampling strategy to predict the oral midazolam AUC for CYP3A phenotyping is proposed. The one-, two- and three-sampling point models were not able to predict midazolam AUC accurately.

Near real-time analysis of extrinsic Fabry-Perot interferometric sensors under damped vibration using artificial neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dua, Rohit; Watkins, Steve E.

2009-03-01

Strain analysis due to vibration can provide insight into structural health. An Extrinsic Fabry-Perot Interferometric (EFPI) sensor under vibrational strain generates a non-linear modulated output. Advanced signal processing techniques, to extract important information such as absolute strain, are required to demodulate this non-linear output. Past research has employed Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Fast Fourier Transforms (FFT) to demodulate the EFPI sensor for limited conditions. These demodulation systems could only handle variations in absolute value of strain and frequency of actuation during a vibration event. This project uses an ANN approach to extend the demodulation system to include the variation in the damping coefficient of the actuating vibration, in a near real-time vibration scenario. A computer simulation provides training and testing data for the theoretical output of the EFPI sensor to demonstrate the approaches. FFT needed to be performed on a window of the EFPI output data. A small window of observation is obtained, while maintaining low absolute-strain prediction errors, heuristically. Results are obtained and compared from employing different ANN architectures including multi-layered feedforward ANN trained using Backpropagation Neural Network (BPNN), and Generalized Regression Neural Networks (GRNN). A two-layered algorithm fusion system is developed and tested that yields better results.

First Impressions of CARTOSAT-1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lutes, James

2007-01-01

CARTOSAT-1 RPCs need special handling. Absolute accuracy of uncontrolled scenes is poor (biases > 300 m). Noticeable cross-track scale error (+/- 3-4 m across stereo pair). Most errors are either biases or linear in line/sample (These are easier to correct with ground control).

Modeling of Compressive Strength for Self-Consolidating High-Strength Concrete Incorporating Palm Oil Fuel Ash

PubMed Central

Safiuddin, Md.; Raman, Sudharshan N.; Abdus Salam, Md.; Jumaat, Mohd. Zamin

2016-01-01

Modeling is a very useful method for the performance prediction of concrete. Most of the models available in literature are related to the compressive strength because it is a major mechanical property used in concrete design. Many attempts were taken to develop suitable mathematical models for the prediction of compressive strength of different concretes, but not for self-consolidating high-strength concrete (SCHSC) containing palm oil fuel ash (POFA). The present study has used artificial neural networks (ANN) to predict the compressive strength of SCHSC incorporating POFA. The ANN model has been developed and validated in this research using the mix proportioning and experimental strength data of 20 different SCHSC mixes. Seventy percent (70%) of the data were used to carry out the training of the ANN model. The remaining 30% of the data were used for testing the model. The training of the ANN model was stopped when the root mean square error (RMSE) and the percentage of good patterns was 0.001 and ≈100%, respectively. The predicted compressive strength values obtained from the trained ANN model were much closer to the experimental values of compressive strength. The coefficient of determination (R2) for the relationship between the predicted and experimental compressive strengths was 0.9486, which shows the higher degree of accuracy of the network pattern. Furthermore, the predicted compressive strength was found very close to the experimental compressive strength during the testing process of the ANN model. The absolute and percentage relative errors in the testing process were significantly low with a mean value of 1.74 MPa and 3.13%, respectively, which indicated that the compressive strength of SCHSC including POFA can be efficiently predicted by the ANN. PMID:28773520

Modeling of Compressive Strength for Self-Consolidating High-Strength Concrete Incorporating Palm Oil Fuel Ash.

PubMed

Safiuddin, Md; Raman, Sudharshan N; Abdus Salam, Md; Jumaat, Mohd Zamin

2016-05-20

Modeling is a very useful method for the performance prediction of concrete. Most of the models available in literature are related to the compressive strength because it is a major mechanical property used in concrete design. Many attempts were taken to develop suitable mathematical models for the prediction of compressive strength of different concretes, but not for self-consolidating high-strength concrete (SCHSC) containing palm oil fuel ash (POFA). The present study has used artificial neural networks (ANN) to predict the compressive strength of SCHSC incorporating POFA. The ANN model has been developed and validated in this research using the mix proportioning and experimental strength data of 20 different SCHSC mixes. Seventy percent (70%) of the data were used to carry out the training of the ANN model. The remaining 30% of the data were used for testing the model. The training of the ANN model was stopped when the root mean square error (RMSE) and the percentage of good patterns was 0.001 and ≈100%, respectively. The predicted compressive strength values obtained from the trained ANN model were much closer to the experimental values of compressive strength. The coefficient of determination ( R ²) for the relationship between the predicted and experimental compressive strengths was 0.9486, which shows the higher degree of accuracy of the network pattern. Furthermore, the predicted compressive strength was found very close to the experimental compressive strength during the testing process of the ANN model. The absolute and percentage relative errors in the testing process were significantly low with a mean value of 1.74 MPa and 3.13%, respectively, which indicated that the compressive strength of SCHSC including POFA can be efficiently predicted by the ANN.

Best of both worlds: combining pharma data and state of the art modeling technology to improve in Silico pKa prediction.

PubMed

Fraczkiewicz, Robert; Lobell, Mario; Göller, Andreas H; Krenz, Ursula; Schoenneis, Rolf; Clark, Robert D; Hillisch, Alexander

2015-02-23

In a unique collaboration between a software company and a pharmaceutical company, we were able to develop a new in silico pKa prediction tool with outstanding prediction quality. An existing pKa prediction method from Simulations Plus based on artificial neural network ensembles (ANNE), microstates analysis, and literature data was retrained with a large homogeneous data set of drug-like molecules from Bayer. The new model was thus built with curated sets of ∼14,000 literature pKa values (∼11,000 compounds, representing literature chemical space) and ∼19,500 pKa values experimentally determined at Bayer Pharma (∼16,000 compounds, representing industry chemical space). Model validation was performed with several test sets consisting of a total of ∼31,000 new pKa values measured at Bayer. For the largest and most difficult test set with >16,000 pKa values that were not used for training, the original model achieved a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.72, root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 0.94, and squared correlation coefficient (R(2)) of 0.87. The new model achieves significantly improved prediction statistics, with MAE = 0.50, RMSE = 0.67, and R(2) = 0.93. It is commercially available as part of the Simulations Plus ADMET Predictor release 7.0. Good predictions are only of value when delivered effectively to those who can use them. The new pKa prediction model has been integrated into Pipeline Pilot and the PharmacophorInformatics (PIx) platform used by scientists at Bayer Pharma. Different output formats allow customized application by medicinal chemists, physical chemists, and computational chemists.

Sci-Thur AM: YIS – 05: Prediction of lung tumor motion using a generalized neural network optimized from the average prediction outcome of a group of patients

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Teo, Troy; Alayoubi, Nadia; Bruce, Neil

Purpose: In image-guided adaptive radiotherapy systems, prediction of tumor motion is required to compensate for system latencies. However, due to the non-stationary nature of respiration, it is a challenge to predict the associated tumor motions. In this work, a systematic design of the neural network (NN) using a mixture of online data acquired during the initial period of the tumor trajectory, coupled with a generalized model optimized using a group of patient data (obtained offline) is presented. Methods: The average error surface obtained from seven patients was used to determine the input data size and number of hidden neurons formore » the generalized NN. To reduce training time, instead of using random weights to initialize learning (method 1), weights inherited from previous training batches (method 2) were used to predict tumor position for each sliding window. Results: The generalized network was established with 35 input data (∼4.66s) and 20 hidden nodes. For a prediction horizon of 650 ms, mean absolute errors of 0.73 mm and 0.59 mm were obtained for method 1 and 2 respectively. An average initial learning period of 8.82 s is obtained. Conclusions: A network with a relatively short initial learning time was achieved. Its accuracy is comparable to previous studies. This network could be used as a plug-and play predictor in which (a) tumor positions can be predicted as soon as treatment begins and (b) the need for pretreatment data and optimization for individual patients can be avoided.« less

Survival analysis with functional covariates for partial follow-up studies.

PubMed

Fang, Hong-Bin; Wu, Tong Tong; Rapoport, Aaron P; Tan, Ming

2016-12-01

Predictive or prognostic analysis plays an increasingly important role in the era of personalized medicine to identify subsets of patients whom the treatment may benefit the most. Although various time-dependent covariate models are available, such models require that covariates be followed in the whole follow-up period. This article studies a new class of functional survival models where the covariates are only monitored in a time interval that is shorter than the whole follow-up period. This paper is motivated by the analysis of a longitudinal study on advanced myeloma patients who received stem cell transplants and T cell infusions after the transplants. The absolute lymphocyte cell counts were collected serially during hospitalization. Those patients are still followed up if they are alive after hospitalization, while their absolute lymphocyte cell counts cannot be measured after that. Another complication is that absolute lymphocyte cell counts are sparsely and irregularly measured. The conventional method using Cox model with time-varying covariates is not applicable because of the different lengths of observation periods. Analysis based on each single observation obviously underutilizes available information and, more seriously, may yield misleading results. This so-called partial follow-up study design represents increasingly common predictive modeling problem where we have serial multiple biomarkers up to a certain time point, which is shorter than the total length of follow-up. We therefore propose a solution to the partial follow-up design. The new method combines functional principal components analysis and survival analysis with selection of those functional covariates. It also has the advantage of handling sparse and irregularly measured longitudinal observations of covariates and measurement errors. Our analysis based on functional principal components reveals that it is the patterns of the trajectories of absolute lymphocyte cell counts, instead of the actual counts, that affect patient's disease-free survival time. © The Author(s) 2014.

Predicting free-living energy expenditure using a miniaturized ear-worn sensor: an evaluation against doubly labeled water.

PubMed

Bouarfa, Loubna; Atallah, Louis; Kwasnicki, Richard Mark; Pettitt, Claire; Frost, Gary; Yang, Guang-Zhong

2014-02-01

Accurate estimation of daily total energy expenditure (EE)is a prerequisite for assisted weight management and assessing certain health conditions. The use of wearable sensors for predicting free-living EE is challenged by consistent sensor placement, user compliance, and estimation methods used. This paper examines whether a single ear-worn accelerometer can be used for EE estimation under free-living conditions.An EE prediction model as first derived and validated in a controlled setting using healthy subjects involving different physical activities. Ten different activities were assessed showing a tenfold cross validation error of 0.24. Furthermore, the EE prediction model shows a mean absolute deviation(MAD) below 1.2 metabolic equivalent of tasks. The same model was applied to a free-living setting with a different population for further validation. The results were compared against those derived from doubly labeled water. In free-living settings, the predicted daily EE has a correlation of 0.74, p 0.008, and a MAD of 272 kcal day. These results demonstrate that laboratory-derived prediction models can be used to predict EE under free-living conditions [corrected].

Comparison of two different methods of preoperative marking for toric intraocular lens implantation: bubble marker versus pendulum marker.

PubMed

Farooqui, Javed Hussain; Koul, Archana; Dutta, Ranjan; Shroff, Noshir Minoo

2016-01-01

To compare the accuracy of two different methods of preoperative marking for toric intraocular lens (IOL) implantation, bubble marker versus pendulum marker, as a means of establishing the reference point for the final alignment of the toric IOL to achieve an outcome as close as possible to emmetropia. Toric IOLs were implanted in 180 eyes of 110 patients. One group (55 patients) had preoperative marking of both eyes done with bubble marker (ASICO AE-2791TBL) and the other group (55 patients) with pendulum marker (Rumex(®)3-193). Reference marks were placed at 3-, 6-, and 9-o'clock positions on the limbus. Slit-lamp photographs were analyzed using Adobe Photoshop (version 7.0). Amount of alignment error (in degrees) induced in each group was measured. Mean absolute rotation error in the preoperative marking in the horizontal axis was 2.42±1.71 in the bubble marker group and 2.83±2.31in the pendulum marker group (P=0.501). Sixty percent of the pendulum group and 70% of the bubble group had rotation error ≤3 (P=0.589), and 90% eyes of the pendulum group and 96.7% of the bubble group had rotation error ≤5 (P=0.612). Both preoperative marking techniques result in approximately 3 of alignment error. Both marking techniques are simple, predictable, reproducible and easy to perform.

Accurate Prediction of Contact Numbers for Multi-Spanning Helical Membrane Proteins

PubMed Central

Li, Bian; Mendenhall, Jeffrey; Nguyen, Elizabeth Dong; Weiner, Brian E.; Fischer, Axel W.; Meiler, Jens

2017-01-01

Prediction of the three-dimensional (3D) structures of proteins by computational methods is acknowledged as an unsolved problem. Accurate prediction of important structural characteristics such as contact number is expected to accelerate the otherwise slow progress being made in the prediction of 3D structure of proteins. Here, we present a dropout neural network-based method, TMH-Expo, for predicting the contact number of transmembrane helix (TMH) residues from sequence. Neuronal dropout is a strategy where certain neurons of the network are excluded from back-propagation to prevent co-adaptation of hidden-layer neurons. By using neuronal dropout, overfitting was significantly reduced and performance was noticeably improved. For multi-spanning helical membrane proteins, TMH-Expo achieved a remarkable Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.69 between predicted and experimental values and a mean absolute error of only 1.68. In addition, among those membrane protein–membrane protein interface residues, 76.8% were correctly predicted. Mapping of predicted contact numbers onto structures indicates that contact numbers predicted by TMH-Expo reflect the exposure patterns of TMHs and reveal membrane protein–membrane protein interfaces, reinforcing the potential of predicted contact numbers to be used as restraints for 3D structure prediction and protein–protein docking. TMH-Expo can be accessed via a Web server at www.meilerlab.org. PMID:26804342

Determination of astrophysical parameters of quasars within the Gaia mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delchambre, L.

2018-01-01

We describe methods designed to determine the astrophysical parameters of quasars based on spectra coming from the red and blue spectrophotometers of the Gaia satellite. These methods principally rely on two already published algorithms that are the weighted principal component analysis and the weighted phase correlation. The presented approach benefits from a fast implementation, an intuitive interpretation as well as strong diagnostic tools on the potential errors that may arise during predictions. The production of a semi-empirical library of spectra as they will be observed by Gaia is also covered and subsequently used for validation purpose. We detail the pre-processing that is necessary in order for these spectra to be fully exploitable by our algorithms along with the procedures that are used to predict the redshifts of the quasars, their continuum slopes, the total equivalent width of their emission lines and whether these are broad absorption line (BAL) quasars or not. Performances of these procedures were assessed in comparison with the extremely randomized trees learning method and were proven to provide better results on the redshift predictions and on the ratio of correctly classified observations though the probability of detection of BAL quasars remains restricted by the low resolution of these spectra as well as by their limited signal-to-noise ratio. Finally, the triggering of some warning flags allows us to obtain an extremely pure subset of redshift predictions where approximately 99 per cent of the observations come along with absolute errors that are below 0.1.

Direct Quantification of Cd2+ in the Presence of Cu2+ by a Combination of Anodic Stripping Voltammetry Using a Bi-Film-Modified Glassy Carbon Electrode and an Artificial Neural Network.

PubMed

Zhao, Guo; Wang, Hui; Liu, Gang

2017-07-03

Abstract : In this study, a novel method based on a Bi/glassy carbon electrode (Bi/GCE) for quantitatively and directly detecting Cd 2+ in the presence of Cu 2+ without further electrode modifications by combining square-wave anodic stripping voltammetry (SWASV) and a back-propagation artificial neural network (BP-ANN) has been proposed. The influence of the Cu 2+ concentration on the stripping response to Cd 2+ was studied. In addition, the effect of the ferrocyanide concentration on the SWASV detection of Cd 2+ in the presence of Cu 2+ was investigated. A BP-ANN with two inputs and one output was used to establish the nonlinear relationship between the concentration of Cd 2+ and the stripping peak currents of Cu 2+ and Cd 2+ . The factors affecting the SWASV detection of Cd 2+ and the key parameters of the BP-ANN were optimized. Moreover, the direct calibration model (i.e., adding 0.1 mM ferrocyanide before detection), the BP-ANN model and other prediction models were compared to verify the prediction performance of these models in terms of their mean absolute errors (MAEs), root mean square errors (RMSEs) and correlation coefficients. The BP-ANN model exhibited higher prediction accuracy than the direct calibration model and the other prediction models. Finally, the proposed method was used to detect Cd 2+ in soil samples with satisfactory results.

Absolute Parameters for the F-type Eclipsing Binary BW Aquarii

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maxted, P. F. L.

2018-05-01

BW Aqr is a bright eclipsing binary star containing a pair of F7V stars. The absolute parameters of this binary (masses, radii, etc.) are known to good precision so they are often used to test stellar models, particularly in studies of convective overshooting. ... Maxted & Hutcheon (2018) analysed the Kepler K2 data for BW Aqr and noted that it shows variability between the eclipses that may be caused by tidally induced pulsations. ... Table 1 shows the absolute parameters for BW Aqr derived from an improved analysis of the Kepler K2 light curve plus the RV measurements from both Imbert (1979) and Lester & Gies (2018). ... The values in Table 1 with their robust error estimates from the standard deviation of the mean are consistent with the values and errors from Maxted & Hutcheon (2018) based on the PPD calculated using emcee for a fit to the entire K2 light curve.

Absolute measurement of the extreme UV solar flux

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carlson, R. W.; Ogawa, H. S.; Judge, D. L.; Phillips, E.

1984-01-01

A windowless rare-gas ionization chamber has been developed to measure the absolute value of the solar extreme UV flux in the 50-575-A region. Successful results were obtained on a solar-pointing sounding rocket. The ionization chamber, operated in total absorption, is an inherently stable absolute detector of ionizing UV radiation and was designed to be independent of effects from secondary ionization and gas effusion. The net error of the measurement is + or - 7.3 percent, which is primarily due to residual outgassing in the instrument, other errors such as multiple ionization, photoelectron collection, and extrapolation to the zero atmospheric optical depth being small in comparison. For the day of the flight, Aug. 10, 1982, the solar irradiance (50-575 A), normalized to unit solar distance, was found to be 5.71 + or - 0.42 x 10 to the 10th photons per sq cm sec.

Altitude registration of limb-scattered radiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moy, Leslie; Bhartia, Pawan K.; Jaross, Glen; Loughman, Robert; Kramarova, Natalya; Chen, Zhong; Taha, Ghassan; Chen, Grace; Xu, Philippe

2017-01-01

One of the largest constraints to the retrieval of accurate ozone profiles from UV backscatter limb sounding sensors is altitude registration. Two methods, the Rayleigh scattering attitude sensing (RSAS) and absolute radiance residual method (ARRM), are able to determine altitude registration to the accuracy necessary for long-term ozone monitoring. The methods compare model calculations of radiances to measured radiances and are independent of onboard tracking devices. RSAS determines absolute altitude errors, but, because the method is susceptible to aerosol interference, it is limited to latitudes and time periods with minimal aerosol contamination. ARRM, a new technique introduced in this paper, can be applied across all seasons and altitudes. However, it is only appropriate for relative altitude error estimates. The application of RSAS to Limb Profiler (LP) measurements from the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) on board the Suomi NPP (SNPP) satellite indicates tangent height (TH) errors greater than 1 km with an absolute accuracy of ±200 m. Results using ARRM indicate a ˜ 300 to 400 m intra-orbital TH change varying seasonally ±100 m, likely due to either errors in the spacecraft pointing or in the geopotential height (GPH) data that we use in our analysis. ARRM shows a change of ˜ 200 m over ˜ 5 years with a relative accuracy (a long-term accuracy) of ±100 m outside the polar regions.

Clinical outcomes of Transepithelial photorefractive keratectomy to treat low to moderate myopic astigmatism.

PubMed

Xi, Lei; Zhang, Chen; He, Yanling

2018-05-09

To evaluate the refractive and visual outcomes of Transepithelial photorefractive keratectomy (TransPRK) in the treatment of low to moderate myopic astigmatism. This retrospective study enrolled a total of 47 eyes that had undergone Transepithelial photorefractive keratectomy. Preoperative cylinder diopters ranged from - 0.75D to - 2.25D (mean - 1.11 ± 0.40D), and the sphere was between - 1.50D to - 5.75D. Visual outcomes and vector analysis of astigmatism that included error ratio (ER), correction ratio (CR), error of magnitude (EM) and error of angle (EA) were evaluated. At 6 months after TransPRK, all eyes had an uncorrected distance visual acuity of 20/20 or better, no eyes lost ≥2 lines of corrected distant visual acuity (CDVA), and 93.6% had residual refractive cylinder within ±0.50D of intended correction. On vector analysis, the mean correction ratio for refractive cylinder was 1.03 ± 0.30. The mean error magnitude was - 0.04 ± 0.36. The mean error of angle was 0.44° ± 7.42°and 80.9% of eyes had axis shift within ±10°. The absolute astigmatic error of magnitude was statistically significantly correlated with the intended cylinder correction (r = 0.48, P < 0.01). TransPRK showed safe, effective and predictable results in the correction of low to moderate astigmatism and myopia.

44 CFR 67.6 - Basis of appeal.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... absolute (except where mathematical or measurement error or changed physical conditions can be demonstrated... a mathematical or measurement error or changed physical conditions, then the specific source of the... registered professional engineer or licensed land surveyor, of the new data necessary for FEMA to conduct a...

[Comparison study on sampling methods of Oncomelania hupensis snail survey in marshland schistosomiasis epidemic areas in China].

PubMed

An, Zhao; Wen-Xin, Zhang; Zhong, Yao; Yu-Kuan, Ma; Qing, Liu; Hou-Lang, Duan; Yi-di, Shang

2016-06-29

To optimize and simplify the survey method of Oncomelania hupensis snail in marshland endemic region of schistosomiasis and increase the precision, efficiency and economy of the snail survey. A quadrate experimental field was selected as the subject of 50 m×50 m size in Chayegang marshland near Henghu farm in the Poyang Lake region and a whole-covered method was adopted to survey the snails. The simple random sampling, systematic sampling and stratified random sampling methods were applied to calculate the minimum sample size, relative sampling error and absolute sampling error. The minimum sample sizes of the simple random sampling, systematic sampling and stratified random sampling methods were 300, 300 and 225, respectively. The relative sampling errors of three methods were all less than 15%. The absolute sampling errors were 0.221 7, 0.302 4 and 0.047 8, respectively. The spatial stratified sampling with altitude as the stratum variable is an efficient approach of lower cost and higher precision for the snail survey.

Discrete distributed strain sensing of intelligent structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, Mark S.; Crawley, Edward F.

1992-01-01

Techniques are developed for the design of discrete highly distributed sensor systems for use in intelligent structures. First the functional requirements for such a system are presented. Discrete spatially averaging strain sensors are then identified as satisfying the functional requirements. A variety of spatial weightings for spatially averaging sensors are examined, and their wave number characteristics are determined. Preferable spatial weightings are identified. Several numerical integration rules used to integrate such sensors in order to determine the global deflection of the structure are discussed. A numerical simulation is conducted using point and rectangular sensors mounted on a cantilevered beam under static loading. Gage factor and sensor position uncertainties are incorporated to assess the absolute error and standard deviation of the error in the estimated tip displacement found by numerically integrating the sensor outputs. An experiment is carried out using a statically loaded cantilevered beam with five point sensors. It is found that in most cases the actual experimental error is within one standard deviation of the absolute error as found in the numerical simulation.

Novel Downhole Electromagnetic Flowmeter for Oil-Water Two-Phase Flow in High-Water-Cut Oil-Producing Wells.

PubMed

Wang, Yanjun; Li, Haoyu; Liu, Xingbin; Zhang, Yuhui; Xie, Ronghua; Huang, Chunhui; Hu, Jinhai; Deng, Gang

2016-10-14

First, the measuring principle, the weight function, and the magnetic field of the novel downhole inserted electromagnetic flowmeter (EMF) are described. Second, the basic design of the EMF is described. Third, the dynamic experiments of two EMFs in oil-water two-phase flow are carried out. The experimental errors are analyzed in detail. The experimental results show that the maximum absolute value of the full-scale errors is better than 5%, the total flowrate is 5-60 m³/d, and the water-cut is higher than 60%. The maximum absolute value of the full-scale errors is better than 7%, the total flowrate is 2-60 m³/d, and the water-cut is higher than 70%. Finally, onsite experiments in high-water-cut oil-producing wells are conducted, and the possible reasons for the errors in the onsite experiments are analyzed. It is found that the EMF can provide an effective technology for measuring downhole oil-water two-phase flow.

Novel Downhole Electromagnetic Flowmeter for Oil-Water Two-Phase Flow in High-Water-Cut Oil-Producing Wells

PubMed Central

Wang, Yanjun; Li, Haoyu; Liu, Xingbin; Zhang, Yuhui; Xie, Ronghua; Huang, Chunhui; Hu, Jinhai; Deng, Gang

2016-01-01

First, the measuring principle, the weight function, and the magnetic field of the novel downhole inserted electromagnetic flowmeter (EMF) are described. Second, the basic design of the EMF is described. Third, the dynamic experiments of two EMFs in oil-water two-phase flow are carried out. The experimental errors are analyzed in detail. The experimental results show that the maximum absolute value of the full-scale errors is better than 5%, the total flowrate is 5–60 m3/d, and the water-cut is higher than 60%. The maximum absolute value of the full-scale errors is better than 7%, the total flowrate is 2–60 m3/d, and the water-cut is higher than 70%. Finally, onsite experiments in high-water-cut oil-producing wells are conducted, and the possible reasons for the errors in the onsite experiments are analyzed. It is found that the EMF can provide an effective technology for measuring downhole oil-water two-phase flow. PMID:27754412

Spacecraft methods and structures with enhanced attitude control that facilitates gyroscope substitutions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Rongsheng (Inventor); Kurland, Jeffrey A. (Inventor); Dawson, Alec M. (Inventor); Wu, Yeong-Wei A. (Inventor); Uetrecht, David S. (Inventor)

2004-01-01

Methods and structures are provided that enhance attitude control during gyroscope substitutions by insuring that a spacecraft's attitude control system does not drive its absolute-attitude sensors out of their capture ranges. In a method embodiment, an operational process-noise covariance Q of a Kalman filter is temporarily replaced with a substantially greater interim process-noise covariance Q. This replacement increases the weight given to the most recent attitude measurements and hastens the reduction of attitude errors and gyroscope bias errors. The error effect of the substituted gyroscopes is reduced and the absolute-attitude sensors are not driven out of their capture range. In another method embodiment, this replacement is preceded by the temporary replacement of an operational measurement-noise variance R with a substantially larger interim measurement-noise variance R to reduce transients during the gyroscope substitutions.

Radiometric properties of the NS001 Thematic Mapper Simulator aircraft multispectral scanner

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Markham, Brian L.; Ahmad, Suraiya P.

1990-01-01

Laboratory tests of the NS001 TM are described emphasizing absolute calibration to determine the radiometry of the simulator's reflective channels. In-flight calibration of the data is accomplished with the NS001 internal integrating-sphere source because instabilities in the source can limit the absolute calibration. The data from 1987-89 indicate uncertainties of up to 25 percent with an apparent average uncertainty of about 15 percent. Also identified are dark current drift and sensitivity changes along the scan line, random noise, and nonlinearity which contribute errors of 1-2 percent. Uncertainties similar to hysteresis are also noted especially in the 2.08-2.35-micron range which can reduce sensitivity and cause errors. The NS001 TM Simulator demonstrates a polarization sensitivity that can generate errors of up to about 10 percent depending on the wavelength.

Response surface models for effects of temperature and previous growth sodium chloride on growth kinetics of Salmonella typhimurium on cooked chicken breast.

PubMed

Oscar, T P

1999-12-01

Response surface models were developed and validated for effects of temperature (10 to 40 degrees C) and previous growth NaCl (0.5 to 4.5%) on lag time (lambda) and specific growth rate (mu) of Salmonella Typhimurium on cooked chicken breast. Growth curves for model development (n = 55) and model validation (n = 16) were fit to a two-phase linear growth model to obtain lambda and mu of Salmonella Typhimurium on cooked chicken breast. Response surface models for natural logarithm transformations of lambda and mu as a function of temperature and previous growth NaCl were obtained by regression analysis. Both lambda and mu of Salmonella Typhimurium were affected (P < 0.0001) by temperature but not by previous growth NaCl. Models were validated against data not used in their development. Mean absolute relative error of predictions (model accuracy) was 26.6% for lambda and 15.4% for mu. Median relative error of predictions (model bias) was 0.9% for lambda and 5.2% for mu. Results indicated that the models developed provided reliable predictions of lambda and mu of Salmonella Typhimurium on cooked chicken breast within the matrix of conditions modeled. In addition, results indicated that previous growth NaCl (0.5 to 4.5%) was not a major factor affecting subsequent growth kinetics of Salmonella Typhimurium on cooked chicken breast. Thus, inclusion of previous growth NaCl in predictive models may not significantly improve our ability to predict growth of Salmonella spp. on food subjected to temperature abuse.

Area under the curve predictions of dalbavancin, a new lipoglycopeptide agent, using the end of intravenous infusion concentration data point by regression analyses such as linear, log-linear and power models.

PubMed

Bhamidipati, Ravi Kanth; Syed, Muzeeb; Mullangi, Ramesh; Srinivas, Nuggehally

2018-02-01

1. Dalbavancin, a lipoglycopeptide, is approved for treating gram-positive bacterial infections. Area under plasma concentration versus time curve (AUC inf ) of dalbavancin is a key parameter and AUC inf /MIC ratio is a critical pharmacodynamic marker. 2. Using end of intravenous infusion concentration (i.e. C max ) C max versus AUC inf relationship for dalbavancin was established by regression analyses (i.e. linear, log-log, log-linear and power models) using 21 pairs of subject data. 3. The predictions of the AUC inf were performed using published C max data by application of regression equations. The quotient of observed/predicted values rendered fold difference. The mean absolute error (MAE)/root mean square error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient (r) were used in the assessment. 4. MAE and RMSE values for the various models were comparable. The C max versus AUC inf exhibited excellent correlation (r > 0.9488). The internal data evaluation showed narrow confinement (0.84-1.14-fold difference) with a RMSE < 10.3%. The external data evaluation showed that the models predicted AUC inf with a RMSE of 3.02-27.46% with fold difference largely contained within 0.64-1.48. 5. Regardless of the regression models, a single time point strategy of using C max (i.e. end of 30-min infusion) is amenable as a prospective tool for predicting AUC inf of dalbavancin in patients.

Application of molecular dynamics simulations in molecular property prediction II: diffusion coefficient.

PubMed

Wang, Junmei; Hou, Tingjun

2011-12-01

In this work, we have evaluated how well the general assisted model building with energy refinement (AMBER) force field performs in studying the dynamic properties of liquids. Diffusion coefficients (D) have been predicted for 17 solvents, five organic compounds in aqueous solutions, four proteins in aqueous solutions, and nine organic compounds in nonaqueous solutions. An efficient sampling strategy has been proposed and tested in the calculation of the diffusion coefficients of solutes in solutions. There are two major findings of this study. First of all, the diffusion coefficients of organic solutes in aqueous solution can be well predicted: the average unsigned errors and the root mean square errors are 0.137 and 0.171 × 10(-5) cm(-2) s(-1), respectively. Second, although the absolute values of D cannot be predicted, good correlations have been achieved for eight organic solvents with experimental data (R(2) = 0.784), four proteins in aqueous solutions (R(2) = 0.996), and nine organic compounds in nonaqueous solutions (R(2) = 0.834). The temperature dependent behaviors of three solvents, namely, TIP3P water, dimethyl sulfoxide, and cyclohexane have been studied. The major molecular dynamics (MD) settings, such as the sizes of simulation boxes and with/without wrapping the coordinates of MD snapshots into the primary simulation boxes have been explored. We have concluded that our sampling strategy that averaging the mean square displacement collected in multiple short-MD simulations is efficient in predicting diffusion coefficients of solutes at infinite dilution. Copyright © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

An Accurate GPS-IMU/DR Data Fusion Method for Driverless Car Based on a Set of Predictive Models and Grid Constraints

PubMed Central

Wang, Shiyao; Deng, Zhidong; Yin, Gang

2016-01-01

A high-performance differential global positioning system (GPS)  receiver with real time kinematics provides absolute localization for driverless cars. However, it is not only susceptible to multipath effect but also unable to effectively fulfill precise error correction in a wide range of driving areas. This paper proposes an accurate GPS–inertial measurement unit (IMU)/dead reckoning (DR) data fusion method based on a set of predictive models and occupancy grid constraints. First, we employ a set of autoregressive and moving average (ARMA) equations that have different structural parameters to build maximum likelihood models of raw navigation. Second, both grid constraints and spatial consensus checks on all predictive results and current measurements are required to have removal of outliers. Navigation data that satisfy stationary stochastic process are further fused to achieve accurate localization results. Third, the standard deviation of multimodal data fusion can be pre-specified by grid size. Finally, we perform a lot of field tests on a diversity of real urban scenarios. The experimental results demonstrate that the method can significantly smooth small jumps in bias and considerably reduce accumulated position errors due to DR. With low computational complexity, the position accuracy of our method surpasses existing state-of-the-arts on the same dataset and the new data fusion method is practically applied in our driverless car. PMID:26927108

An Accurate GPS-IMU/DR Data Fusion Method for Driverless Car Based on a Set of Predictive Models and Grid Constraints.

PubMed

Wang, Shiyao; Deng, Zhidong; Yin, Gang

2016-02-24

A high-performance differential global positioning system (GPS)  receiver with real time kinematics provides absolute localization for driverless cars. However, it is not only susceptible to multipath effect but also unable to effectively fulfill precise error correction in a wide range of driving areas. This paper proposes an accurate GPS-inertial measurement unit (IMU)/dead reckoning (DR) data fusion method based on a set of predictive models and occupancy grid constraints. First, we employ a set of autoregressive and moving average (ARMA) equations that have different structural parameters to build maximum likelihood models of raw navigation. Second, both grid constraints and spatial consensus checks on all predictive results and current measurements are required to have removal of outliers. Navigation data that satisfy stationary stochastic process are further fused to achieve accurate localization results. Third, the standard deviation of multimodal data fusion can be pre-specified by grid size. Finally, we perform a lot of field tests on a diversity of real urban scenarios. The experimental results demonstrate that the method can significantly smooth small jumps in bias and considerably reduce accumulated position errors due to DR. With low computational complexity, the position accuracy of our method surpasses existing state-of-the-arts on the same dataset and the new data fusion method is practically applied in our driverless car.

Modelling of PM10 concentration for industrialized area in Malaysia: A case study in Shah Alam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

N, Norazian Mohamed; Abdullah, M. M. A.; Tan, Cheng-yau; Ramli, N. A.; Yahaya, A. S.; Fitri, N. F. M. Y.

In Malaysia, the predominant air pollutants are suspended particulate matter (SPM) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). This research is on PM10 as they may trigger harm to human health as well as environment. Six distributions, namely Weibull, log-normal, gamma, Rayleigh, Gumbel and Frechet were chosen to model the PM10 observations at the chosen industrial area i.e. Shah Alam. One-year period hourly average data for 2006 and 2007 were used for this research. For parameters estimation, method of maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) was selected. Four performance indicators that are mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (R2) and prediction accuracy (PA), were applied to determine the goodness-of-fit criteria of the distributions. The best distribution that fits with the PM10 observations in Shah Alamwas found to be log-normal distribution. The probabilities of the exceedences concentration were calculated and the return period for the coming year was predicted from the cumulative density function (cdf) obtained from the best-fit distributions. For the 2006 data, Shah Alam was predicted to exceed 150 μg/m3 for 5.9 days in 2007 with a return period of one occurrence per 62 days. For 2007, the studied area does not exceed the MAAQG of 150 μg/m3

Artificial neural network associated to UV/Vis spectroscopy for monitoring bioreactions in biopharmaceutical processes.

PubMed

Takahashi, Maria Beatriz; Leme, Jaci; Caricati, Celso Pereira; Tonso, Aldo; Fernández Núñez, Eutimio Gustavo; Rocha, José Celso

2015-06-01

Currently, mammalian cells are the most utilized hosts for biopharmaceutical production. The culture media for these cell lines include commonly in their composition a pH indicator. Spectroscopic techniques are used for biopharmaceutical process monitoring, among them, UV-Vis spectroscopy has found scarce applications. This work aimed to define artificial neural networks architecture and fit its parameters to predict some nutrients and metabolites, as well as viable cell concentration based on UV-Vis spectral data of mammalian cell bioprocess using phenol red in culture medium. The BHK-21 cell line was used as a mammalian cell model. Off-line spectra of supernatant samples taken from batches performed at different dissolved oxygen concentrations in two bioreactor configurations and with two pH control strategies were used to define two artificial neural networks. According to absolute errors, glutamine (0.13 ± 0.14 mM), glutamate (0.02 ± 0.02 mM), glucose (1.11 ± 1.70 mM), lactate (0.84 ± 0.68 mM) and viable cell concentrations (1.89 10(5) ± 1.90 10(5) cell/mL) were suitably predicted. The prediction error averages for monitored variables were lower than those previously reported using different spectroscopic techniques in combination with partial least squares or artificial neural network. The present work allows for UV-VIS sensor development, and decreases cost related to nutrients and metabolite quantifications.

Optimal quantum error correcting codes from absolutely maximally entangled states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raissi, Zahra; Gogolin, Christian; Riera, Arnau; Acín, Antonio

2018-02-01

Absolutely maximally entangled (AME) states are pure multi-partite generalizations of the bipartite maximally entangled states with the property that all reduced states of at most half the system size are in the maximally mixed state. AME states are of interest for multipartite teleportation and quantum secret sharing and have recently found new applications in the context of high-energy physics in toy models realizing the AdS/CFT-correspondence. We work out in detail the connection between AME states of minimal support and classical maximum distance separable (MDS) error correcting codes and, in particular, provide explicit closed form expressions for AME states of n parties with local dimension \

Predicting Real-Valued Protein Residue Fluctuation Using FlexPred.

PubMed

Peterson, Lenna; Jamroz, Michal; Kolinski, Andrzej; Kihara, Daisuke

2017-01-01

The conventional view of a protein structure as static provides only a limited picture. There is increasing evidence that protein dynamics are often vital to protein function including interaction with partners such as other proteins, nucleic acids, and small molecules. Considering flexibility is also important in applications such as computational protein docking and protein design. While residue flexibility is partially indicated by experimental measures such as the B-factor from X-ray crystallography and ensemble fluctuation from nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy as well as computational molecular dynamics (MD) simulation, these techniques are resource-intensive. In this chapter, we describe the web server and stand-alone version of FlexPred, which rapidly predicts absolute per-residue fluctuation from a three-dimensional protein structure. On a set of 592 nonredundant structures, comparing the fluctuations predicted by FlexPred to the observed fluctuations in MD simulations showed an average correlation coefficient of 0.669 and an average root mean square error of 1.07 Å. FlexPred is available at http://kiharalab.org/flexPred/ .

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Heng, E-mail: hengli@mdanderson.org; Zhu, X. Ronald; Zhang, Xiaodong

Purpose: To develop and validate a novel delivery strategy for reducing the respiratory motion–induced dose uncertainty of spot-scanning proton therapy. Methods and Materials: The spot delivery sequence was optimized to reduce dose uncertainty. The effectiveness of the delivery sequence optimization was evaluated using measurements and patient simulation. One hundred ninety-one 2-dimensional measurements using different delivery sequences of a single-layer uniform pattern were obtained with a detector array on a 1-dimensional moving platform. Intensity modulated proton therapy plans were generated for 10 lung cancer patients, and dose uncertainties for different delivery sequences were evaluated by simulation. Results: Without delivery sequence optimization,more » the maximum absolute dose error can be up to 97.2% in a single measurement, whereas the optimized delivery sequence results in a maximum absolute dose error of ≤11.8%. In patient simulation, the optimized delivery sequence reduces the mean of fractional maximum absolute dose error compared with the regular delivery sequence by 3.3% to 10.6% (32.5-68.0% relative reduction) for different patients. Conclusions: Optimizing the delivery sequence can reduce dose uncertainty due to respiratory motion in spot-scanning proton therapy, assuming the 4-dimensional CT is a true representation of the patients' breathing patterns.« less

Quantitative endoscopy: initial accuracy measurements.

PubMed

Truitt, T O; Adelman, R A; Kelly, D H; Willging, J P

2000-02-01

The geometric optics of an endoscope can be used to determine the absolute size of an object in an endoscopic field without knowing the actual distance from the object. This study explores the accuracy of a technique that estimates absolute object size from endoscopic images. Quantitative endoscopy involves calibrating a rigid endoscope to produce size estimates from 2 images taken with a known traveled distance between the images. The heights of 12 samples, ranging in size from 0.78 to 11.80 mm, were estimated with this calibrated endoscope. Backup distances of 5 mm and 10 mm were used for comparison. The mean percent error for all estimated measurements when compared with the actual object sizes was 1.12%. The mean errors for 5-mm and 10-mm backup distances were 0.76% and 1.65%, respectively. The mean errors for objects <2 mm and > or =2 mm were 0.94% and 1.18%, respectively. Quantitative endoscopy estimates endoscopic image size to within 5% of the actual object size. This method remains promising for quantitatively evaluating object size from endoscopic images. It does not require knowledge of the absolute distance of the endoscope from the object, rather, only the distance traveled by the endoscope between images.

Influence of non-level walking on pedometer accuracy.

PubMed

Leicht, Anthony S; Crowther, Robert G

2009-05-01

The YAMAX Digiwalker pedometer has been previously confirmed as a valid and reliable monitor during level walking, however, little is known about its accuracy during non-level walking activities or between genders. Subsequently, this study examined the influence of non-level walking and gender on pedometer accuracy. Forty-six healthy adults completed 3-min bouts of treadmill walking at their normal walking pace during 11 inclines (0-10%) while another 123 healthy adults completed walking up and down 47 stairs. During walking, participants wore a YAMAX Digiwalker SW-700 pedometer with the number of steps taken and registered by the pedometer recorded. Pedometer difference (steps registered-steps taken), net error (% of steps taken), absolute error (absolute % of steps taken) and gender were examined by repeated measures two-way ANOVA and Tukey's post hoc tests. During incline walking, pedometer accuracy indices were similar between inclines and gender except for a significantly greater step difference (-7+/-5 steps vs. 1+/-4 steps) and net error (-2.4+/-1.8% for 9% vs. 0.4+/-1.2% for 2%). Step difference and net error were significantly greater during stair descent compared to stair ascent while absolute error was significantly greater during stair ascent compared to stair descent. The current study demonstrated that the YAMAX Digiwalker SW-700 pedometer exhibited good accuracy during incline walking up to 10% while it overestimated steps taken during stair ascent/descent with greater overestimation during stair descent. Stair walking activity should be documented in field studies as the YAMAX Digiwalker SW-700 pedometer overestimates this activity type.

Satellite SAR geocoding with refined RPC model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Lu; Balz, Timo; Liao, Mingsheng

2012-04-01

Recent studies have proved that the Rational Polynomial Camera (RPC) model is able to act as a reliable replacement of the rigorous Range-Doppler (RD) model for the geometric processing of satellite SAR datasets. But its capability in absolute geolocation of SAR images has not been evaluated quantitatively. Therefore, in this article the problems of error analysis and refinement of SAR RPC model are primarily investigated to improve the absolute accuracy of SAR geolocation. Range propagation delay and azimuth timing error are identified as two major error sources for SAR geolocation. An approach based on SAR image simulation and real-to-simulated image matching is developed to estimate and correct these two errors. Afterwards a refined RPC model can be built from the error-corrected RD model and then used in satellite SAR geocoding. Three experiments with different settings are designed and conducted to comprehensively evaluate the accuracies of SAR geolocation with both ordinary and refined RPC models. All the experimental results demonstrate that with RPC model refinement the absolute location accuracies of geocoded SAR images can be improved significantly, particularly in Easting direction. In another experiment the computation efficiencies of SAR geocoding with both RD and RPC models are compared quantitatively. The results show that by using the RPC model such efficiency can be remarkably improved by at least 16 times. In addition the problem of DEM data selection for SAR image simulation in RPC model refinement is studied by a comparative experiment. The results reveal that the best choice should be using the proper DEM datasets of spatial resolution comparable to that of the SAR images.

Prediction of absolute infrared intensities for the fundamental vibrations of H2O2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rogers, J. D.; Hillman, J. J.

1981-01-01

Absolute infrared intensities are predicted for the vibrational bands of gas-phase H2O2 by the use of a hydrogen atomic polar tensor transferred from the hydroxyl hydrogen atom of CH3OH. These predicted intensities are compared with intensities predicted by the use of a hydrogen atomic polar tensor transferred from H2O. The predicted relative intensities agree well with published spectra of gas-phase H2O2, and the predicted absolute intensities are expected to be accurate to within at least a factor of two. Among the vibrational degrees of freedom, the antisymmetric O-H bending mode nu(6) is found to be the strongest with a calculated intensity of 60.5 km/mole. The torsional band, a consequence of hindered rotation, is found to be the most intense fundamental with a predicted intensity of 120 km/mole. These results are compared with the recent absolute intensity determinations for the nu(6) band.

Prediction of change in protein unfolding rates upon point mutations in two state proteins.

PubMed

Chaudhary, Priyashree; Naganathan, Athi N; Gromiha, M Michael

2016-09-01

Studies on protein unfolding rates are limited and challenging due to the complexity of unfolding mechanism and the larger dynamic range of the experimental data. Though attempts have been made to predict unfolding rates using protein sequence-structure information there is no available method for predicting the unfolding rates of proteins upon specific point mutations. In this work, we have systematically analyzed a set of 790 single mutants and developed a robust method for predicting protein unfolding rates upon mutations (Δlnku) in two-state proteins by combining amino acid properties and knowledge-based classification of mutants with multiple linear regression technique. We obtain a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.79/s and a Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) of 0.71 between predicted unfolding rates and experimental observations using jack-knife test. We have developed a web server for predicting protein unfolding rates upon mutation and it is freely available at https://www.iitm.ac.in/bioinfo/proteinunfolding/unfoldingrace.html. Prominent features that determine unfolding kinetics as well as plausible reasons for the observed outliers are also discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Improved intact soil-core carbon determination applying regression shrinkage and variable selection techniques to complete spectrum laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS).

PubMed

Bricklemyer, Ross S; Brown, David J; Turk, Philip J; Clegg, Sam M

2013-10-01

Laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) provides a potential method for rapid, in situ soil C measurement. In previous research on the application of LIBS to intact soil cores, we hypothesized that ultraviolet (UV) spectrum LIBS (200-300 nm) might not provide sufficient elemental information to reliably discriminate between soil organic C (SOC) and inorganic C (IC). In this study, using a custom complete spectrum (245-925 nm) core-scanning LIBS instrument, we analyzed 60 intact soil cores from six wheat fields. Predictive multi-response partial least squares (PLS2) models using full and reduced spectrum LIBS were compared for directly determining soil total C (TC), IC, and SOC. Two regression shrinkage and variable selection approaches, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and sparse multivariate regression with covariance estimation (MRCE), were tested for soil C predictions and the identification of wavelengths important for soil C prediction. Using complete spectrum LIBS for PLS2 modeling reduced the calibration standard error of prediction (SEP) 15 and 19% for TC and IC, respectively, compared to UV spectrum LIBS. The LASSO and MRCE approaches provided significantly improved calibration accuracy and reduced SEP 32-55% over UV spectrum PLS2 models. We conclude that (1) complete spectrum LIBS is superior to UV spectrum LIBS for predicting soil C for intact soil cores without pretreatment; (2) LASSO and MRCE approaches provide improved calibration prediction accuracy over PLS2 but require additional testing with increased soil and target analyte diversity; and (3) measurement errors associated with analyzing intact cores (e.g., sample density and surface roughness) require further study and quantification.

DFT-based method for more accurate adsorption energies: An adaptive sum of energies from RPBE and vdW density functionals

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hensley, Alyssa J. R.; Ghale, Kushal; Rieg, Carolin

In recent years, the popularity of density functional theory with periodic boundary conditions (DFT) has surged for the design and optimization of functional materials. However, no single DFT exchange–correlation functional currently available gives accurate adsorption energies on transition metals both when bonding to the surface is dominated by strong covalent or ionic bonding and when it has strong contributions from van der Waals interactions (i.e., dispersion forces). Here we present a new, simple method for accurately predicting adsorption energies on transition-metal surfaces based on DFT calculations, using an adaptively weighted sum of energies from RPBE and optB86b-vdW (or optB88-vdW) densitymore » functionals. This method has been benchmarked against a set of 39 reliable experimental energies for adsorption reactions. Our results show that this method has a mean absolute error and root mean squared error relative to experiments of 13.4 and 19.3 kJ/mol, respectively, compared to 20.4 and 26.4 kJ/mol for the BEEF-vdW functional. For systems with large van der Waals contributions, this method decreases these errors to 11.6 and 17.5 kJ/mol. Furthermore, this method provides predictions of adsorption energies both for processes dominated by strong covalent or ionic bonding and for those dominated by dispersion forces that are more accurate than those of any current standard DFT functional alone.« less

DFT-based method for more accurate adsorption energies: An adaptive sum of energies from RPBE and vdW density functionals

DOE PAGES

Hensley, Alyssa J. R.; Ghale, Kushal; Rieg, Carolin; ...

2017-01-26

In recent years, the popularity of density functional theory with periodic boundary conditions (DFT) has surged for the design and optimization of functional materials. However, no single DFT exchange–correlation functional currently available gives accurate adsorption energies on transition metals both when bonding to the surface is dominated by strong covalent or ionic bonding and when it has strong contributions from van der Waals interactions (i.e., dispersion forces). Here we present a new, simple method for accurately predicting adsorption energies on transition-metal surfaces based on DFT calculations, using an adaptively weighted sum of energies from RPBE and optB86b-vdW (or optB88-vdW) densitymore » functionals. This method has been benchmarked against a set of 39 reliable experimental energies for adsorption reactions. Our results show that this method has a mean absolute error and root mean squared error relative to experiments of 13.4 and 19.3 kJ/mol, respectively, compared to 20.4 and 26.4 kJ/mol for the BEEF-vdW functional. For systems with large van der Waals contributions, this method decreases these errors to 11.6 and 17.5 kJ/mol. Furthermore, this method provides predictions of adsorption energies both for processes dominated by strong covalent or ionic bonding and for those dominated by dispersion forces that are more accurate than those of any current standard DFT functional alone.« less

Simultaneous quantification of the boar-taint compounds skatole and androstenone by surface-enhanced Raman scattering (SERS) and multivariate data analysis.

PubMed

Sørensen, Klavs M; Westley, Chloe; Goodacre, Royston; Engelsen, Søren Balling

2015-10-01

This study investigates the feasibility of using surface-enhanced Raman scattering (SERS) for the quantification of absolute levels of the boar-taint compounds skatole and androstenone in porcine fat. By investigation of different types of nanoparticles, pH and aggregating agents, an optimized environment that promotes SERS of the analytes was developed and tested with different multivariate spectral pre-processing techniques, and this was combined with variable selection on a series of analytical standards. The resulting method exhibited prediction errors (root mean square error of cross validation, RMSECV) of 2.4 × 10(-6) M skatole and 1.2 × 10(-7) M androstenone, with a limit of detection corresponding to approximately 2.1 × 10(-11) M for skatole and approximately 1.8 × 10(-10) for androstenone. The method was subsequently tested on porcine fat extract, leading to prediction errors (RMSECV) of 0.17 μg/g for skatole and 1.5 μg/g for androstenone. It is clear that this optimized SERS method, when combined with multivariate analysis, shows great potential for optimization into an on-line application, which will be the first of its kind, and opens up possibilities for simultaneous detection of other meat-quality metabolites or pathogen markers. Graphical abstract Artistic rendering of a laser-illuminated gold colloid sphere with skatole and androstenone adsorbed on the surface.

Predicting Daily Insolation with Hourly Cloud Height and Coverage.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyers, T. P.; Dale, R. F.

1983-04-01

Solar radiation information is used in crop growth, boundary layer, entomological and plant pathological models, and in determining the potential use of active and passive solar energy systems. Yet solar radiation is among the least measured meteorological variables.A semi-physical model based on standard meteorological data was developed to estimate solar radiation received at the earth's surface. The radiation model includes the effects of Rayleigh scattering, absorption by water vapor and permanent gases, and absorption and scattering by aerosols and clouds. Cloud attenuation is accounted for by assigning transmission coefficients based on cloud height and amount. The cloud transmission coefficients for various heights and coverages were derived empirically from hourly observations of solar radiation in conjunction with corresponding cloud observations at West Lafayette, Indiana. The model was tested with independent data from West Lafayette and Indianapolis, Madison, WI, Omaha, NE, Columbia, MO, Nashville, TN, Seattle, WA, Los Angeles, CA, Phoenix, AZ, Lake Charles, LA, Miami, FL, and Sterling, VA. For each of these locations a 16% random sample of days was drawn within each of the 12 months in a year for testing the model. Excellent agreement between predicted and observed radiation values was obtained for all stations tested. Mean absolute errors ranged from 1.05 to 1.80 MJ m2 day1 and root-mean-square errors ranged from 1.31 to 2.32 MJ m2 day1. The model's performance judged by relative error was found to be independent of season and cloud amount for all locations tested.

Performance of ANFIS versus MLP-NN dissolved oxygen prediction models in water quality monitoring.

PubMed

Najah, A; El-Shafie, A; Karim, O A; El-Shafie, Amr H

2014-02-01

We discuss the accuracy and performance of the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) in training and prediction of dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations. The model was used to analyze historical data generated through continuous monitoring of water quality parameters at several stations on the Johor River to predict DO concentrations. Four water quality parameters were selected for ANFIS modeling, including temperature, pH, nitrate (NO3) concentration, and ammoniacal nitrogen concentration (NH3-NL). Sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the effects of the input parameters. The inputs with the greatest effect were those related to oxygen content (NO3) or oxygen demand (NH3-NL). Temperature was the parameter with the least effect, whereas pH provided the lowest contribution to the proposed model. To evaluate the performance of the model, three statistical indices were used: the coefficient of determination (R (2)), the mean absolute prediction error, and the correlation coefficient. The performance of the ANFIS model was compared with an artificial neural network model. The ANFIS model was capable of providing greater accuracy, particularly in the case of extreme events.

A Novel Model for Stock Price Prediction Using Hybrid Neural Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senapati, Manas Ranjan; Das, Sumanjit; Mishra, Sarojananda

2018-06-01

The foremost challenge for investors is to select stock price by analyzing financial data which is a menial task as of distort associated and massive pattern. Thereby, selecting stock poses one of the greatest difficulties for investors. Nowadays, prediction of financial market like stock market, exchange rate and share value are very challenging field of research. The prediction and scrutinization of stock price is also a potential area of research due to its vital significance in decision making by financial investors. This paper presents an intelligent and an optimal model for prophecy of stock market price using hybridization of Adaline Neural Network (ANN) and modified Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). The connoted model hybrid of Adaline and PSO uses fluctuations of stock market as a factor and employs PSO to optimize and update weights of Adaline representation to depict open price of Bombay stock exchange. The prediction performance of the proposed model is compared with different representations like interval measurements, CMS-PSO and Bayesian-ANN. The result indicates that proposed scheme has an edge over all the juxtaposed schemes in terms of mean absolute percentage error.

Uncertainty Quantification in Alchemical Free Energy Methods.

PubMed

Bhati, Agastya P; Wan, Shunzhou; Hu, Yuan; Sherborne, Brad; Coveney, Peter V

2018-06-12

Alchemical free energy methods have gained much importance recently from several reports of improved ligand-protein binding affinity predictions based on their implementation using molecular dynamics simulations. A large number of variants of such methods implementing different accelerated sampling techniques and free energy estimators are available, each claimed to be better than the others in its own way. However, the key features of reproducibility and quantification of associated uncertainties in such methods have barely been discussed. Here, we apply a systematic protocol for uncertainty quantification to a number of popular alchemical free energy methods, covering both absolute and relative free energy predictions. We show that a reliable measure of error estimation is provided by ensemble simulation-an ensemble of independent MD simulations-which applies irrespective of the free energy method. The need to use ensemble methods is fundamental and holds regardless of the duration of time of the molecular dynamics simulations performed.

Kinetics of the crust thickness development of bread during baking.

PubMed

Soleimani Pour-Damanab, Alireza; Jafary, A; Rafiee, Sh

2014-11-01

The development of crust thickness of bread during baking is an important aspect of bread quality and shelf-life. Computer vision system was used for measuring the crust thickness via colorimetric properties of bread surface during baking process. Crust thickness had a negative and positive relationship with Lightness (L (*) ) and total color change (E (*) ) of bread surface, respectively. A linear negative trend was found between crust thickness and moisture ratio of bread samples. A simple mathematical model was proposed to predict the development of crust thickness of bread during baking, where the crust thickness was depended on moisture ratio that was described by the Page moisture losing model. The independent variables of the model were baking conditions, i.e. oven temperature and air velocity, and baking time. Consequently, the proposed model had well prediction ability, as the mean absolute estimation error of the model was 7.93 %.

False consensus and adolescent peer contagion: examining discrepancies between perceptions and actual reported levels of friends' deviant and health risk behaviors.

PubMed

Prinstein, Mitchell J; Wang, Shirley S

2005-06-01

Adolescents' perceptions of their friends' behavior strongly predict adolescents' own behavior, however, these perceptions often are erroneous. This study examined correlates of discrepancies between adolescents' perceptions and friends' reports of behavior. A total of 120 11th-grade adolescents provided data regarding their engagement in deviant and health risk behaviors, as well as their perceptions of the behavior of their best friend, as identified through sociometric assessment. Data from friends' own report were used to calculate discrepancy measures of adolescents' overestimations and estimation errors (absolute value of discrepancies) of friends' behavior. Adolescents also completed a measure of friendship quality, and a sociometric assessment yielding measures of peer acceptance/rejection and aggression. Findings revealed that adolescents' peer rejection and aggression were associated with greater overestimations of friends' behavior. This effect was partially mediated by adolescents' own behavior, consistent with a false consensus effect. Low levels of positive friendship quality were significantly associated with estimation errors, but not overestimations specifically.

Assessing the accuracy of microwave radiometers and radio acoustic sounding systems for wind energy applications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bianco, Laura; Friedrich, Katja; Wilczak, James M.

To assess current remote-sensing capabilities for wind energy applications, a remote-sensing system evaluation study, called XPIA (eXperimental Planetary boundary layer Instrument Assessment), was held in the spring of 2015 at NOAA's Boulder Atmospheric Observatory (BAO) facility. Several remote-sensing platforms were evaluated to determine their suitability for the verification and validation processes used to test the accuracy of numerical weather prediction models.The evaluation of these platforms was performed with respect to well-defined reference systems: the BAO's 300 m tower equipped at six levels (50, 100, 150, 200, 250, and 300 m) with 12 sonic anemometers and six temperature ( T) andmore » relative humidity (RH) sensors; and approximately 60 radiosonde launches.In this study we first employ these reference measurements to validate temperature profiles retrieved by two co-located microwave radiometers (MWRs) as well as virtual temperature ( T v) measured by co-located wind profiling radars equipped with radio acoustic sounding systems (RASSs). Results indicate a mean absolute error (MAE) in the temperature retrieved by the microwave radiometers below 1.5 K in the lowest 5?km of the atmosphere and a mean absolute error in the virtual temperature measured by the radio acoustic sounding systems below 0.8 K in the layer of the atmosphere covered by these measurements (up to approximately 1.6-2 km). We also investigated the benefit of the vertical velocity correction applied to the speed of sound before computing the virtual temperature by the radio acoustic sounding systems. We find that using this correction frequently increases the RASS error, and that it should not be routinely applied to all data.Water vapor density (WVD) profiles measured by the MWRs were also compared with similar measurements from the soundings, showing the capability of MWRs to follow the vertical profile measured by the sounding and finding a mean absolute error below 0.5 g m -3 in the lowest 5 km of the atmosphere. However, the relative humidity profiles measured by the microwave radiometer lack the high-resolution details available from radiosonde profiles. Furthermore, an encouraging and significant finding of this study was that the coefficient of determination between the lapse rate measured by the microwave radiometer and the tower measurements over the tower levels between 50 and 300 m ranged from 0.76 to 0.91, proving that these remote-sensing instruments can provide accurate information on atmospheric stability conditions in the lower boundary layer.« less

Assessing the accuracy of microwave radiometers and radio acoustic sounding systems for wind energy applications

DOE PAGES

Bianco, Laura; Friedrich, Katja; Wilczak, James M.; ...

2017-05-09

To assess current remote-sensing capabilities for wind energy applications, a remote-sensing system evaluation study, called XPIA (eXperimental Planetary boundary layer Instrument Assessment), was held in the spring of 2015 at NOAA's Boulder Atmospheric Observatory (BAO) facility. Several remote-sensing platforms were evaluated to determine their suitability for the verification and validation processes used to test the accuracy of numerical weather prediction models.The evaluation of these platforms was performed with respect to well-defined reference systems: the BAO's 300 m tower equipped at six levels (50, 100, 150, 200, 250, and 300 m) with 12 sonic anemometers and six temperature ( T) andmore » relative humidity (RH) sensors; and approximately 60 radiosonde launches.In this study we first employ these reference measurements to validate temperature profiles retrieved by two co-located microwave radiometers (MWRs) as well as virtual temperature ( T v) measured by co-located wind profiling radars equipped with radio acoustic sounding systems (RASSs). Results indicate a mean absolute error (MAE) in the temperature retrieved by the microwave radiometers below 1.5 K in the lowest 5?km of the atmosphere and a mean absolute error in the virtual temperature measured by the radio acoustic sounding systems below 0.8 K in the layer of the atmosphere covered by these measurements (up to approximately 1.6-2 km). We also investigated the benefit of the vertical velocity correction applied to the speed of sound before computing the virtual temperature by the radio acoustic sounding systems. We find that using this correction frequently increases the RASS error, and that it should not be routinely applied to all data.Water vapor density (WVD) profiles measured by the MWRs were also compared with similar measurements from the soundings, showing the capability of MWRs to follow the vertical profile measured by the sounding and finding a mean absolute error below 0.5 g m -3 in the lowest 5 km of the atmosphere. However, the relative humidity profiles measured by the microwave radiometer lack the high-resolution details available from radiosonde profiles. Furthermore, an encouraging and significant finding of this study was that the coefficient of determination between the lapse rate measured by the microwave radiometer and the tower measurements over the tower levels between 50 and 300 m ranged from 0.76 to 0.91, proving that these remote-sensing instruments can provide accurate information on atmospheric stability conditions in the lower boundary layer.« less

Assessing the accuracy of microwave radiometers and radio acoustic sounding systems for wind energy applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bianco, Laura; Friedrich, Katja; Wilczak, James M.; Hazen, Duane; Wolfe, Daniel; Delgado, Ruben; Oncley, Steven P.; Lundquist, Julie K.

2017-05-01

To assess current remote-sensing capabilities for wind energy applications, a remote-sensing system evaluation study, called XPIA (eXperimental Planetary boundary layer Instrument Assessment), was held in the spring of 2015 at NOAA's Boulder Atmospheric Observatory (BAO) facility. Several remote-sensing platforms were evaluated to determine their suitability for the verification and validation processes used to test the accuracy of numerical weather prediction models.The evaluation of these platforms was performed with respect to well-defined reference systems: the BAO's 300 m tower equipped at six levels (50, 100, 150, 200, 250, and 300 m) with 12 sonic anemometers and six temperature (T) and relative humidity (RH) sensors; and approximately 60 radiosonde launches.In this study we first employ these reference measurements to validate temperature profiles retrieved by two co-located microwave radiometers (MWRs) as well as virtual temperature (Tv) measured by co-located wind profiling radars equipped with radio acoustic sounding systems (RASSs). Results indicate a mean absolute error (MAE) in the temperature retrieved by the microwave radiometers below 1.5 K in the lowest 5 km of the atmosphere and a mean absolute error in the virtual temperature measured by the radio acoustic sounding systems below 0.8 K in the layer of the atmosphere covered by these measurements (up to approximately 1.6-2 km). We also investigated the benefit of the vertical velocity correction applied to the speed of sound before computing the virtual temperature by the radio acoustic sounding systems. We find that using this correction frequently increases the RASS error, and that it should not be routinely applied to all data.Water vapor density (WVD) profiles measured by the MWRs were also compared with similar measurements from the soundings, showing the capability of MWRs to follow the vertical profile measured by the sounding and finding a mean absolute error below 0.5 g m-3 in the lowest 5 km of the atmosphere. However, the relative humidity profiles measured by the microwave radiometer lack the high-resolution details available from radiosonde profiles. An encouraging and significant finding of this study was that the coefficient of determination between the lapse rate measured by the microwave radiometer and the tower measurements over the tower levels between 50 and 300 m ranged from 0.76 to 0.91, proving that these remote-sensing instruments can provide accurate information on atmospheric stability conditions in the lower boundary layer.

LACIE - An application of meteorology for United States and foreign wheat assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hill, J. D.; Strommen, N. D.; Sakamoto, C. M.; Leduc, S. K.

1980-01-01

This paper describes the overall Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment technical approach utilizing the global weather-reporting network and the Landsat satellite to make a quasi-operational application of existing research results, and the accomplishments of this cooperative experiment in utilizing the weather information. Global weather data were utilized in preparing timely yield estimates for selected areas of the U.S. Great Plains, the U.S.S.R. and Canada. Additionally, wheat yield models were developed and pilot tested for Brazil, Australia, India and Argentina. The results of the work show that heading dates for wheat in North America can be predicted with an average absolute error of about 5 days for winter wheat and 4 days for spring wheat. Independent tests of wheat yield models over a 10-year period for the U.S. Great Plains produced a root-mean-square error of 1.12 quintals per hectare (q/ha) while similar tests in the U.S.S.R. produced an error of 1.31 q/ha. Research designed to improve the initial capability is described as is the rationale for further evolution of a capability to monitor global climate and assess its impact on world food supplies.

Mathematical modeling of wastewater-derived biodegradable dissolved organic nitrogen.

PubMed

Simsek, Halis

2016-11-01

Wastewater-derived dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) typically constitutes the majority of total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) discharged to surface waters from advanced wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). When considering the stringent regulations on nitrogen discharge limits in sensitive receiving waters, DON becomes problematic and needs to be reduced. Biodegradable DON (BDON) is a portion of DON that is biologically degradable by bacteria when the optimum environmental conditions are met. BDON in a two-stage trickling filter WWTP was estimated using artificial intelligence techniques, such as adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems, multilayer perceptron, radial basis neural networks (RBNN), and generalized regression neural networks. Nitrite, nitrate, ammonium, TDN, and DON data were used as input neurons. Wastewater samples were collected from four different locations in the plant. Model performances were evaluated using root mean square error, mean absolute error, mean bias error, and coefficient of determination statistics. Modeling results showed that the R(2) values were higher than 0.85 in all four models for all wastewater samples, except only R(2) in the final effluent sample for RBNN modeling was low (0.52). Overall, it was found that all four computing techniques could be employed successfully to predict BDON.

[Research on Resistant Starch Content of Rice Grain Based on NIR Spectroscopy Model].

PubMed

Luo, Xi; Wu, Fang-xi; Xie, Hong-guang; Zhu, Yong-sheng; Zhang, Jian-fu; Xie, Hua-an

2016-03-01

A new method based on near-infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS) analysis was explored to determine the content of rice-resistant starch instead of common chemical method which took long time was high-cost. First of all, we collected 62 spectral data which have big differences in terms of resistant starch content of rice, and then the spectral data and detected chemical values are imported chemometrics software. After that a near-infrared spectroscopy calibration model for rice-resistant starch content was constructed with partial least squares (PLS) method. Results are as follows: In respect of internal cross validation, the coefficient of determination (R2) of untreated, pretreatment with MSC+1thD, pretreatment with 1thD+SNV were 0.920 2, 0.967 0 and 0.976 7 respectively. Root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) were 1.533 7, 1.011 2 and 0.837 1 respectively. In respect of external validation, the coefficient of determination (R2) of untreated, pretreatment with MSC+ 1thD, pretreatment with 1thD+SNV were 0.805, 0.976 and 0.992 respectively. The average absolute error was 1.456, 0.818, 0.515 respectively. There was no significant difference between chemical and predicted values (Turkey multiple comparison), so we think near infrared spectrum analysis is more feasible than chemical measurement. Among the different pretreatment, the first derivation and standard normal variate (1thD+SNV) have higher coefficient of determination (R2) and lower error value whether in internal validation and external validation. In other words, the calibration model has higher precision and less error by pretreatment with 1thD+SNV.

Macroscopic superpositions and gravimetry with quantum magnetomechanics.

PubMed

Johnsson, Mattias T; Brennen, Gavin K; Twamley, Jason

2016-11-21

Precision measurements of gravity can provide tests of fundamental physics and are of broad practical interest for metrology. We propose a scheme for absolute gravimetry using a quantum magnetomechanical system consisting of a magnetically trapped superconducting resonator whose motion is controlled and measured by a nearby RF-SQUID or flux qubit. By driving the mechanical massive resonator to be in a macroscopic superposition of two different heights our we predict that our interferometry protocol could, subject to systematic errors, achieve a gravimetric sensitivity of Δg/g ~ 2.2 × 10 -10  Hz -1/2 , with a spatial resolution of a few nanometres. This sensitivity and spatial resolution exceeds the precision of current state of the art atom-interferometric and corner-cube gravimeters by more than an order of magnitude, and unlike classical superconducting interferometers produces an absolute rather than relative measurement of gravity. In addition, our scheme takes measurements at ~10 kHz, a region where the ambient vibrational noise spectrum is heavily suppressed compared the ~10 Hz region relevant for current cold atom gravimeters.

Macroscopic superpositions and gravimetry with quantum magnetomechanics

PubMed Central

Johnsson, Mattias T.; Brennen, Gavin K.; Twamley, Jason

2016-01-01

Precision measurements of gravity can provide tests of fundamental physics and are of broad practical interest for metrology. We propose a scheme for absolute gravimetry using a quantum magnetomechanical system consisting of a magnetically trapped superconducting resonator whose motion is controlled and measured by a nearby RF-SQUID or flux qubit. By driving the mechanical massive resonator to be in a macroscopic superposition of two different heights our we predict that our interferometry protocol could, subject to systematic errors, achieve a gravimetric sensitivity of Δg/g ~ 2.2 × 10−10 Hz−1/2, with a spatial resolution of a few nanometres. This sensitivity and spatial resolution exceeds the precision of current state of the art atom-interferometric and corner-cube gravimeters by more than an order of magnitude, and unlike classical superconducting interferometers produces an absolute rather than relative measurement of gravity. In addition, our scheme takes measurements at ~10 kHz, a region where the ambient vibrational noise spectrum is heavily suppressed compared the ~10 Hz region relevant for current cold atom gravimeters. PMID:27869142

Plant traits determine forest flammability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zylstra, Philip; Bradstock, Ross

2016-04-01

Carbon and nutrient cycles in forest ecosystems are influenced by their inherent flammability - a property determined by the traits of the component plant species that form the fuel and influence the micro climate of a fire. In the absence of a model capable of explaining the complexity of such a system however, flammability is frequently represented by simple metrics such as surface fuel load. The implications of modelling fire - flammability feedbacks using surface fuel load were examined and compared to a biophysical, mechanistic model (Forest Flammability Model) that incorporates the influence of structural plant traits (e.g. crown shape and spacing) and leaf traits (e.g. thickness, dimensions and moisture). Fuels burn with values of combustibility modelled from leaf traits, transferring convective heat along vectors defined by flame angle and with plume temperatures that decrease with distance from the flame. Flames are re-calculated in one-second time-steps, with new leaves within the plant, neighbouring plants or higher strata ignited when the modelled time to ignition is reached, and other leaves extinguishing when their modelled flame duration is exceeded. The relative influence of surface fuels, vegetation structure and plant leaf traits were examined by comparing flame heights modelled using three treatments that successively added these components within the FFM. Validation was performed across a diverse range of eucalypt forests burnt under widely varying conditions during a forest fire in the Brindabella Ranges west of Canberra (ACT) in 2003. Flame heights ranged from 10 cm to more than 20 m, with an average of 4 m. When modelled from surface fuels alone, flame heights were on average 1.5m smaller than observed values, and were predicted within the error range 28% of the time. The addition of plant structure produced predicted flame heights that were on average 1.5m larger than observed, but were correct 53% of the time. The over-prediction in this case was the result of a small number of large errors, where higher strata such as forest canopy were modelled to ignite but did not. The addition of leaf traits largely addressed this error, so that the mean flame height over-prediction was reduced to 0.3m and the fully parameterised FFM gave correct predictions 62% of the time. When small (<1m) flames were excluded, the fully parameterised model correctly predicted flame heights 12 times more often than could be predicted using surface fuels alone, and the Mean Absolute Error was 4 times smaller. The inadequate consideration of plant traits within a mechanistic framework introduces significant error to forest fire behaviour modelling. The FFM provides a solution to this, and an avenue by which plant trait information can be used to better inform Global Vegetation Models and decision-making tools used to mitigate the impacts of fire.

WE-G-BRA-04: Common Errors and Deficiencies in Radiation Oncology Practice

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kry, S; Dromgoole, L; Alvarez, P

Purpose: Dosimetric errors in radiotherapy dose delivery lead to suboptimal treatments and outcomes. This work reviews the frequency and severity of dosimetric and programmatic errors identified by on-site audits performed by the IROC Houston QA center. Methods: IROC Houston on-site audits evaluate absolute beam calibration, relative dosimetry data compared to the treatment planning system data, and processes such as machine QA. Audits conducted from 2000-present were abstracted for recommendations, including type of recommendation and magnitude of error when applicable. Dosimetric recommendations corresponded to absolute dose errors >3% and relative dosimetry errors >2%. On-site audits of 1020 accelerators at 409 institutionsmore » were reviewed. Results: A total of 1280 recommendations were made (average 3.1/institution). The most common recommendation was for inadequate QA procedures per TG-40 and/or TG-142 (82% of institutions) with the most commonly noted deficiency being x-ray and electron off-axis constancy versus gantry angle. Dosimetrically, the most common errors in relative dosimetry were in small-field output factors (59% of institutions), wedge factors (33% of institutions), off-axis factors (21% of institutions), and photon PDD (18% of institutions). Errors in calibration were also problematic: 20% of institutions had an error in electron beam calibration, 8% had an error in photon beam calibration, and 7% had an error in brachytherapy source calibration. Almost all types of data reviewed included errors up to 7% although 20 institutions had errors in excess of 10%, and 5 had errors in excess of 20%. The frequency of electron calibration errors decreased significantly with time, but all other errors show non-significant changes. Conclusion: There are many common and often serious errors made during the establishment and maintenance of a radiotherapy program that can be identified through independent peer review. Physicists should be cautious, particularly in areas highlighted herein that show a tendency for errors.« less

Proprioceptive deficit in patients with complete tearing of the anterior cruciate ligament.

PubMed

Godinho, Pedro; Nicoliche, Eduardo; Cossich, Victor; de Sousa, Eduardo Branco; Velasques, Bruna; Salles, José Inácio

2014-01-01

To investigate the existence of proprioceptive deficits between the injured limb and the uninjured (i.e. contralateral normal) limb, in individuals who suffered complete tearing of the anterior cruciate ligament (ACL), using a strength reproduction test. Sixteen patients with complete tearing of the ACL participated in the study. A voluntary maximum isometric strength test was performed, with reproduction of the muscle strength in the limb with complete tearing of the ACL and the healthy contralateral limb, with the knee flexed at 60°. The meta-intensity was used for the procedure of 20% of the voluntary maximum isometric strength. The proprioceptive performance was determined by means of absolute error, variable error and constant error values. Significant differences were found between the control group and ACL group for the variables of absolute error (p = 0.05) and constant error (p = 0.01). No difference was found in relation to variable error (p = 0.83). Our data corroborate the hypothesis that there is a proprioceptive deficit in subjects with complete tearing of the ACL in an injured limb, in comparison with the uninjured limb, during evaluation of the sense of strength. This deficit can be explained in terms of partial or total loss of the mechanoreceptors of the ACL.

Investigation of Non-Equilibrium Radiation for Earth Entry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brandis, A. M.; Johnston, C. O.; Cruden, B. A.

2016-01-01

For Earth re-entry at velocities between 8 and 11.5 km/s, the accuracy of NASA's computational uid dynamic and radiative simulations of non-equilibrium shock layer radiation is assessed through comparisons with measurements. These measurements were obtained in the NASA Ames Research Center's Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) facility. The experiments were aimed at measuring the spatially and spectrally resolved radiance at relevant entry conditions for both an approximate Earth atmosphere (79% N2 : 21% O2 by mole) as well as a more accurate composition featuring the trace species Ar and CO2 (78.08% N2 : 20.95% O2 : 0.04% CO2 : 0.93% Ar by mole). The experiments were configured to target a wide range of conditions, of which shots from 8 to 11.5 km/s at 0.2 Torr (26.7 Pa) are examined in this paper. The non-equilibrium component was chosen to be the focus of this study as it can account for a significant percentage of the emitted radiation for Earth re-entry, and more importantly, non-equilibrium has traditionally been assigned a large uncertainty for vehicle design. The main goals of this study are to present the shock tube data in the form of a non-equilibrium metric, evaluate the level of agreement between the experiment and simulations, identify key discrepancies and to examine critical aspects of modeling non-equilibrium radiating flows. Radiance pro les integrated over discreet wavelength regions, ranging from the Vacuum Ultra Violet (VUV) through to the Near Infra-Red (NIR), were compared in order to maximize both the spectral coverage and the number of experiments that could be used in the analysis. A previously defined non-equilibrium metric has been used to allow comparisons with several shots and reveal trends in the data. Overall, LAURA/HARA is shown to under-predict EAST by as much as 40% and over-predict by as much as 12% depending on the shock speed. DPLR/NEQAIR is shown to under-predict EAST by as much as 50% and over-predict by as much as 20% depending on the shock speed. The one standard deviation scatter in the EAST results was calculated to be 31%. An estimate for the upper bound of the absolute error in wall-directed heat flux was calculated. Below 9 km/s, where the relative difference is large, the absolute error in radiative heat flux due to non-equilibrium models is estimated to be less then 1 W/sq cm. At the highest shock speed of 11 km/s, the error in non-equilibrium is estimated to be less than 20 W/sq cm.

Absolute Radiometric Calibration of EUNIS-06

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thomas, R. J.; Rabin, D. M.; Kent, B. J.; Paustian, W.

2007-01-01

The Extreme-Ultraviolet Normal-Incidence Spectrometer (EUNIS) is a soundingrocket payload that obtains imaged high-resolution spectra of individual solar features, providing information about the Sun's corona and upper transition region. Shortly after its successful initial flight last year, a complete end-to-end calibration was carried out to determine the instrument's absolute radiometric response over its Longwave bandpass of 300 - 370A. The measurements were done at the Rutherford-Appleton Laboratory (RAL) in England, using the same vacuum facility and EUV radiation source used in the pre-flight calibrations of both SOHO/CDS and Hinode/EIS, as well as in three post-flight calibrations of our SERTS sounding rocket payload, the precursor to EUNIS. The unique radiation source provided by the Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt (PTB) had been calibrated to an absolute accuracy of 7% (l-sigma) at 12 wavelengths covering our bandpass directly against the Berlin electron storage ring BESSY, which is itself a primary radiometric source standard. Scans of the EUNIS aperture were made to determine the instrument's absolute spectral sensitivity to +- 25%, considering all sources of error, and demonstrate that EUNIS-06 was the most sensitive solar E W spectrometer yet flown. The results will be matched against prior calibrations which relied on combining measurements of individual optical components, and on comparisons with theoretically predicted 'insensitive' line ratios. Coordinated observations were made during the EUNIS-06 flight by SOHO/CDS and EIT that will allow re-calibrations of those instruments as well. In addition, future EUNIS flights will provide similar calibration updates for TRACE, Hinode/EIS, and STEREO/SECCHI/EUVI.

Communication: An improved linear scaling perturbative triples correction for the domain based local pair-natural orbital based singles and doubles coupled cluster method [DLPNO-CCSD(T)].

PubMed

Guo, Yang; Riplinger, Christoph; Becker, Ute; Liakos, Dimitrios G; Minenkov, Yury; Cavallo, Luigi; Neese, Frank

2018-01-07

In this communication, an improved perturbative triples correction (T) algorithm for domain based local pair-natural orbital singles and doubles coupled cluster (DLPNO-CCSD) theory is reported. In our previous implementation, the semi-canonical approximation was used and linear scaling was achieved for both the DLPNO-CCSD and (T) parts of the calculation. In this work, we refer to this previous method as DLPNO-CCSD(T 0 ) to emphasize the semi-canonical approximation. It is well-established that the DLPNO-CCSD method can predict very accurate absolute and relative energies with respect to the parent canonical CCSD method. However, the (T 0 ) approximation may introduce significant errors in absolute energies as the triples correction grows up in magnitude. In the majority of cases, the relative energies from (T 0 ) are as accurate as the canonical (T) results of themselves. Unfortunately, in rare cases and in particular for small gap systems, the (T 0 ) approximation breaks down and relative energies show large deviations from the parent canonical CCSD(T) results. To address this problem, an iterative (T) algorithm based on the previous DLPNO-CCSD(T 0 ) algorithm has been implemented [abbreviated here as DLPNO-CCSD(T)]. Using triples natural orbitals to represent the virtual spaces for triples amplitudes, storage bottlenecks are avoided. Various carefully designed approximations ease the computational burden such that overall, the increase in the DLPNO-(T) calculation time over DLPNO-(T 0 ) only amounts to a factor of about two (depending on the basis set). Benchmark calculations for the GMTKN30 database show that compared to DLPNO-CCSD(T 0 ), the errors in absolute energies are greatly reduced and relative energies are moderately improved. The particularly problematic case of cumulene chains of increasing lengths is also successfully addressed by DLPNO-CCSD(T).

Communication: An improved linear scaling perturbative triples correction for the domain based local pair-natural orbital based singles and doubles coupled cluster method [DLPNO-CCSD(T)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Yang; Riplinger, Christoph; Becker, Ute; Liakos, Dimitrios G.; Minenkov, Yury; Cavallo, Luigi; Neese, Frank

2018-01-01

In this communication, an improved perturbative triples correction (T) algorithm for domain based local pair-natural orbital singles and doubles coupled cluster (DLPNO-CCSD) theory is reported. In our previous implementation, the semi-canonical approximation was used and linear scaling was achieved for both the DLPNO-CCSD and (T) parts of the calculation. In this work, we refer to this previous method as DLPNO-CCSD(T0) to emphasize the semi-canonical approximation. It is well-established that the DLPNO-CCSD method can predict very accurate absolute and relative energies with respect to the parent canonical CCSD method. However, the (T0) approximation may introduce significant errors in absolute energies as the triples correction grows up in magnitude. In the majority of cases, the relative energies from (T0) are as accurate as the canonical (T) results of themselves. Unfortunately, in rare cases and in particular for small gap systems, the (T0) approximation breaks down and relative energies show large deviations from the parent canonical CCSD(T) results. To address this problem, an iterative (T) algorithm based on the previous DLPNO-CCSD(T0) algorithm has been implemented [abbreviated here as DLPNO-CCSD(T)]. Using triples natural orbitals to represent the virtual spaces for triples amplitudes, storage bottlenecks are avoided. Various carefully designed approximations ease the computational burden such that overall, the increase in the DLPNO-(T) calculation time over DLPNO-(T0) only amounts to a factor of about two (depending on the basis set). Benchmark calculations for the GMTKN30 database show that compared to DLPNO-CCSD(T0), the errors in absolute energies are greatly reduced and relative energies are moderately improved. The particularly problematic case of cumulene chains of increasing lengths is also successfully addressed by DLPNO-CCSD(T).

Forecasting air quality time series using deep learning.

PubMed

Freeman, Brian S; Taylor, Graham; Gharabaghi, Bahram; Thé, Jesse

2018-04-13

This paper presents one of the first applications of deep learning (DL) techniques to predict air pollution time series. Air quality management relies extensively on time series data captured at air monitoring stations as the basis of identifying population exposure to airborne pollutants and determining compliance with local ambient air standards. In this paper, 8 hr averaged surface ozone (O 3 ) concentrations were predicted using deep learning consisting of a recurrent neural network (RNN) with long short-term memory (LSTM). Hourly air quality and meteorological data were used to train and forecast values up to 72 hours with low error rates. The LSTM was able to forecast the duration of continuous O 3 exceedances as well. Prior to training the network, the dataset was reviewed for missing data and outliers. Missing data were imputed using a novel technique that averaged gaps less than eight time steps with incremental steps based on first-order differences of neighboring time periods. Data were then used to train decision trees to evaluate input feature importance over different time prediction horizons. The number of features used to train the LSTM model was reduced from 25 features to 5 features, resulting in improved accuracy as measured by Mean Absolute Error (MAE). Parameter sensitivity analysis identified look-back nodes associated with the RNN proved to be a significant source of error if not aligned with the prediction horizon. Overall, MAE's less than 2 were calculated for predictions out to 72 hours. Novel deep learning techniques were used to train an 8-hour averaged ozone forecast model. Missing data and outliers within the captured data set were replaced using a new imputation method that generated calculated values closer to the expected value based on the time and season. Decision trees were used to identify input variables with the greatest importance. The methods presented in this paper allow air managers to forecast long range air pollution concentration while only monitoring key parameters and without transforming the data set in its entirety, thus allowing real time inputs and continuous prediction.

Assessing the external validity of algorithms to estimate EQ-5D-3L from the WOMAC.

PubMed

Kiadaliri, Aliasghar A; Englund, Martin

2016-10-04

The use of mapping algorithms have been suggested as a solution to predict health utilities when no preference-based measure is included in the study. However, validity and predictive performance of these algorithms are highly variable and hence assessing the accuracy and validity of algorithms before use them in a new setting is of importance. The aim of the current study was to assess the predictive accuracy of three mapping algorithms to estimate the EQ-5D-3L from the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) among Swedish people with knee disorders. Two of these algorithms developed using ordinary least squares (OLS) models and one developed using mixture model. The data from 1078 subjects mean (SD) age 69.4 (7.2) years with frequent knee pain and/or knee osteoarthritis from the Malmö Osteoarthritis study in Sweden were used. The algorithms' performance was assessed using mean error, mean absolute error, and root mean squared error. Two types of prediction were estimated for mixture model: weighted average (WA), and conditional on estimated component (CEC). The overall mean was overpredicted by an OLS model and underpredicted by two other algorithms (P < 0.001). All predictions but the CEC predictions of mixture model had a narrower range than the observed scores (22 to 90 %). All algorithms suffered from overprediction for severe health states and underprediction for mild health states with lesser extent for mixture model. While the mixture model outperformed OLS models at the extremes of the EQ-5D-3D distribution, it underperformed around the center of the distribution. While algorithm based on mixture model reflected the distribution of EQ-5D-3L data more accurately compared with OLS models, all algorithms suffered from systematic bias. This calls for caution in applying these mapping algorithms in a new setting particularly in samples with milder knee problems than original sample. Assessing the impact of the choice of these algorithms on cost-effectiveness studies through sensitivity analysis is recommended.

Comparison between artificial neural network and multilinear regression models in an evaluation of cognitive workload in a flight simulator.

PubMed

Hannula, Manne; Huttunen, Kerttu; Koskelo, Jukka; Laitinen, Tomi; Leino, Tuomo

2008-01-01

In this study, the performances of artificial neural network (ANN) analysis and multilinear regression (MLR) model-based estimation of heart rate were compared in an evaluation of individual cognitive workload. The data comprised electrocardiography (ECG) measurements and an evaluation of cognitive load that induces psychophysiological stress (PPS), collected from 14 interceptor fighter pilots during complex simulated F/A-18 Hornet air battles. In our data, the mean absolute error of the ANN estimate was 11.4 as a visual analog scale score, being 13-23% better than the mean absolute error of the MLR model in the estimation of cognitive workload.

Looking Past Primary Productivity: Benchmarking System Processes that Drive Ecosystem Level Responses in Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cowdery, E.; Dietze, M.

2017-12-01

As atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide levels continue to increase, it is critical that terrestrial ecosystem models can accurately predict ecological responses to the changing environment. Current predictions of net primary productivity (NPP) in response to elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration are highly variable and contain a considerable amount of uncertainty. Benchmarking model predictions against data are necessary to assess their ability to replicate observed patterns, but also to identify and evaluate the assumptions causing inter-model differences. We have implemented a novel benchmarking workflow as part of the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn) that is automated, repeatable, and generalized to incorporate different sites and ecological models. Building on the recent Free-Air CO2 Enrichment Model Data Synthesis (FACE-MDS) project, we used observational data from the FACE experiments to test this flexible, extensible benchmarking approach aimed at providing repeatable tests of model process representation that can be performed quickly and frequently. Model performance assessments are often limited to traditional residual error analysis; however, this can result in a loss of critical information. Models that fail tests of relative measures of fit may still perform well under measures of absolute fit and mathematical similarity. This implies that models that are discounted as poor predictors of ecological productivity may still be capturing important patterns. Conversely, models that have been found to be good predictors of productivity may be hiding error in their sub-process that result in the right answers for the wrong reasons. Our suite of tests have not only highlighted process based sources of uncertainty in model productivity calculations, they have also quantified the patterns and scale of this error. Combining these findings with PEcAn's model sensitivity analysis and variance decomposition strengthen our ability to identify which processes need further study and additional data constraints. This can be used to inform future experimental design and in turn can provide an informative starting point for data assimilation.

Performance assessment of nitrate leaching models for highly vulnerable soils used in low-input farming based on lysimeter data.

PubMed

Groenendijk, Piet; Heinen, Marius; Klammler, Gernot; Fank, Johann; Kupfersberger, Hans; Pisinaras, Vassilios; Gemitzi, Alexandra; Peña-Haro, Salvador; García-Prats, Alberto; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel; Perego, Alessia; Acutis, Marco; Trevisan, Marco

2014-11-15

The agricultural sector faces the challenge of ensuring food security without an excessive burden on the environment. Simulation models provide excellent instruments for researchers to gain more insight into relevant processes and best agricultural practices and provide tools for planners for decision making support. The extent to which models are capable of reliable extrapolation and prediction is important for exploring new farming systems or assessing the impacts of future land and climate changes. A performance assessment was conducted by testing six detailed state-of-the-art models for simulation of nitrate leaching (ARMOSA, COUPMODEL, DAISY, EPIC, SIMWASER/STOTRASIM, SWAP/ANIMO) for lysimeter data of the Wagna experimental field station in Eastern Austria, where the soil is highly vulnerable to nitrate leaching. Three consecutive phases were distinguished to gain insight in the predictive power of the models: 1) a blind test for 2005-2008 in which only soil hydraulic characteristics, meteorological data and information about the agricultural management were accessible; 2) a calibration for the same period in which essential information on field observations was additionally available to the modellers; and 3) a validation for 2009-2011 with the corresponding type of data available as for the blind test. A set of statistical metrics (mean absolute error, root mean squared error, index of agreement, model efficiency, root relative squared error, Pearson's linear correlation coefficient) was applied for testing the results and comparing the models. None of the models performed good for all of the statistical metrics. Models designed for nitrate leaching in high-input farming systems had difficulties in accurately predicting leaching in low-input farming systems that are strongly influenced by the retention of nitrogen in catch crops and nitrogen fixation by legumes. An accurate calibration does not guarantee a good predictive power of the model. Nevertheless all models were able to identify years and crops with high- and low-leaching rates. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Systematic error of the Gaia DR1 TGAS parallaxes from data for the red giant clump

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gontcharov, G. A.

2017-08-01

Based on the Gaia DR1 TGAS parallaxes and photometry from the Tycho-2, Gaia, 2MASS, andWISE catalogues, we have produced a sample of 100 000 clump red giants within 800 pc of the Sun. The systematic variations of the mode of their absolute magnitude as a function of the distance, magnitude, and other parameters have been analyzed. We show that these variations reach 0.7 mag and cannot be explained by variations in the interstellar extinction or intrinsic properties of stars and by selection. The only explanation seems to be a systematic error of the Gaia DR1 TGAS parallax dependent on the square of the observed distance in kpc: 0.18 R 2 mas. Allowance for this error reduces significantly the systematic dependences of the absolute magnitude mode on all parameters. This error reaches 0.1 mas within 800 pc of the Sun and allows an upper limit for the accuracy of the TGAS parallaxes to be estimated as 0.2 mas. A careful allowance for such errors is needed to use clump red giants as "standard candles." This eliminates all discrepancies between the theoretical and empirical estimates of the characteristics of these stars and allows us to obtain the first estimates of the modes of their absolute magnitudes from the Gaia parallaxes: mode( M H ) = -1.49 m ± 0.04 m , mode( M Ks ) = -1.63 m ± 0.03 m , mode( M W1) = -1.67 m ± 0.05 m mode( M W2) = -1.67 m ± 0.05 m , mode( M W3) = -1.66 m ± 0.02 m , mode( M W4) = -1.73 m ± 0.03 m , as well as the corresponding estimates of their de-reddened colors.

Measuring physical activity during pregnancy.

PubMed

Harrison, Cheryce L; Thompson, Russell G; Teede, Helena J; Lombard, Catherine B

2011-03-21

Currently, little is known about physical activity patterns in pregnancy with prior estimates predominantly based on subjective assessment measures that are prone to error. Given the increasing obesity rates and the importance of physical activity in pregnancy, we evaluated the relationship and agreement between subjective and objective physical activity assessment tools to inform researchers and clinicians on optimal assessment of physical activity in pregnancy. 48 pregnant women between 26-28 weeks gestation were recruited. The Yamax pedometer and Actigraph accelerometer were worn for 5-7 days under free living conditions and thereafter the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ) was completed. IPAQ and pedometer estimates of activity were compared to the more robust and accurate accelerometer data. Of 48 women recruited, 30 women completed the study (mean age: 33.6 ± 4.7 years; mean BMI: 31.2 ± 5.1 kg/m(2)) and 18 were excluded (failure to wear [n = 8] and incomplete data [n = 10]). The accelerometer and pedometer correlated significantly on estimation of daily steps (ρ = 0.69, p < 0.01) and had good absolute agreement with low systematic error (mean difference: 505 ± 1498 steps/day). Accelerometer and IPAQ estimates of total, light and moderate Metabolic Equivalent minutes/day (MET min(-1) day(-1)) were not significantly correlated and there was poor absolute agreement. Relative to the accelerometer, the IPAQ under predicted daily total METs (105.76 ± 259.13 min(-1) day(-1)) and light METs (255.55 ± 128.41 min(-1) day(-1)) and over predicted moderate METs (-112.25 ± 166.41 min(-1) day(-1)). Compared with the accelerometer, the pedometer appears to provide a reliable estimate of physical activity in pregnancy, whereas the subjective IPAQ measure performed less accurately in this setting. Future research measuring activity in pregnancy should optimally encompass objective measures of physical activity. Australian New Zealand Clinical Trial Registry Number: ACTRN12608000233325. Registered 7/5/2008.

Measuring physical activity during pregnancy

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Currently, little is known about physical activity patterns in pregnancy with prior estimates predominantly based on subjective assessment measures that are prone to error. Given the increasing obesity rates and the importance of physical activity in pregnancy, we evaluated the relationship and agreement between subjective and objective physical activity assessment tools to inform researchers and clinicians on optimal assessment of physical activity in pregnancy. Methods 48 pregnant women between 26-28 weeks gestation were recruited. The Yamax pedometer and Actigraph accelerometer were worn for 5-7 days under free living conditions and thereafter the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ) was completed. IPAQ and pedometer estimates of activity were compared to the more robust and accurate accelerometer data. Results Of 48 women recruited, 30 women completed the study (mean age: 33.6 ± 4.7 years; mean BMI: 31.2 ± 5.1 kg/m2) and 18 were excluded (failure to wear [n = 8] and incomplete data [n = 10]). The accelerometer and pedometer correlated significantly on estimation of daily steps (ρ = 0.69, p < 0.01) and had good absolute agreement with low systematic error (mean difference: 505 ± 1498 steps/day). Accelerometer and IPAQ estimates of total, light and moderate Metabolic Equivalent minutes/day (MET min-1 day-1) were not significantly correlated and there was poor absolute agreement. Relative to the accelerometer, the IPAQ under predicted daily total METs (105.76 ± 259.13 min-1 day-1) and light METs (255.55 ± 128.41 min-1 day-1) and over predicted moderate METs (-112.25 ± 166.41 min-1 day-1). Conclusion Compared with the accelerometer, the pedometer appears to provide a reliable estimate of physical activity in pregnancy, whereas the subjective IPAQ measure performed less accurately in this setting. Future research measuring activity in pregnancy should optimally encompass objective measures of physical activity. Trial Registration Australian New Zealand Clinical Trial Registry Number: ACTRN12608000233325. Registered 7/5/2008. PMID:21418609

Probabilistic mapping of descriptive health status responses onto health state utilities using Bayesian networks: an empirical analysis converting SF-12 into EQ-5D utility index in a national US sample.

PubMed

Le, Quang A; Doctor, Jason N

2011-05-01

As quality-adjusted life years have become the standard metric in health economic evaluations, mapping health-profile or disease-specific measures onto preference-based measures to obtain quality-adjusted life years has become a solution when health utilities are not directly available. However, current mapping methods are limited due to their predictive validity, reliability, and/or other methodological issues. We employ probability theory together with a graphical model, called a Bayesian network, to convert health-profile measures into preference-based measures and to compare the results to those estimated with current mapping methods. A sample of 19,678 adults who completed both the 12-item Short Form Health Survey (SF-12v2) and EuroQoL 5D (EQ-5D) questionnaires from the 2003 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey was split into training and validation sets. Bayesian networks were constructed to explore the probabilistic relationships between each EQ-5D domain and 12 items of the SF-12v2. The EQ-5D utility scores were estimated on the basis of the predicted probability of each response level of the 5 EQ-5D domains obtained from the Bayesian inference process using the following methods: Monte Carlo simulation, expected utility, and most-likely probability. Results were then compared with current mapping methods including multinomial logistic regression, ordinary least squares, and censored least absolute deviations. The Bayesian networks consistently outperformed other mapping models in the overall sample (mean absolute error=0.077, mean square error=0.013, and R overall=0.802), in different age groups, number of chronic conditions, and ranges of the EQ-5D index. Bayesian networks provide a new robust and natural approach to map health status responses into health utility measures for health economic evaluations.

SU-C-204-01: A Fast Analytical Approach for Prompt Gamma and PET Predictions in a TPS for Proton Range Verification

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kroniger, K; Herzog, M; Landry, G

2015-06-15

Purpose: We describe and demonstrate a fast analytical tool for prompt-gamma emission prediction based on filter functions applied on the depth dose profile. We present the implementation in a treatment planning system (TPS) of the same algorithm for positron emitter distributions. Methods: The prediction of the desired observable is based on the convolution of filter functions with the depth dose profile. For both prompt-gammas and positron emitters, the results of Monte Carlo simulations (MC) are compared with those of the analytical tool. For prompt-gamma emission from inelastic proton-induced reactions, homogeneous and inhomogeneous phantoms alongside with patient data are used asmore » irradiation targets of mono-energetic proton pencil beams. The accuracy of the tool is assessed in terms of the shape of the analytically calculated depth profiles and their absolute yields, compared to MC. For the positron emitters, the method is implemented in a research RayStation TPS and compared to MC predictions. Digital phantoms and patient data are used and positron emitter spatial density distributions are analyzed. Results: Calculated prompt-gamma profiles agree with MC within 3 % in terms of absolute yield and reproduce the correct shape. Based on an arbitrary reference material and by means of 6 filter functions (one per chemical element), profiles in any other material composed of those elements can be predicted. The TPS implemented algorithm is accurate enough to enable, via the analytically calculated positron emitters profiles, detection of range differences between the TPS and MC with errors of the order of 1–2 mm. Conclusion: The proposed analytical method predicts prompt-gamma and positron emitter profiles which generally agree with the distributions obtained by a full MC. The implementation of the tool in a TPS shows that reliable profiles can be obtained directly from the dose calculated by the TPS, without the need of full MC simulation.« less

Prediction of Malaysian monthly GDP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hin, Pooi Ah; Ching, Soo Huei; Yeing, Pan Wei

2015-12-01

The paper attempts to use a method based on multivariate power-normal distribution to predict the Malaysian Gross Domestic Product next month. Letting r(t) be the vector consisting of the month-t values on m selected macroeconomic variables, and GDP, we model the month-(t+1) GDP to be dependent on the present and l-1 past values r(t), r(t-1),…,r(t-l+1) via a conditional distribution which is derived from a [(m+1)l+1]-dimensional power-normal distribution. The 100(α/2)% and 100(1-α/2)% points of the conditional distribution may be used to form an out-of sample prediction interval. This interval together with the mean of the conditional distribution may be used to predict the month-(t+1) GDP. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), estimated coverage probability and average length of the prediction interval are used as the criterions for selecting the suitable lag value l-1 and the subset from a pool of 17 macroeconomic variables. It is found that the relatively better models would be those of which 2 ≤ l ≤ 3, and involving one or two of the macroeconomic variables given by Market Indicative Yield, Oil Prices, Exchange Rate and Import Trade.

Using Long-Short-Term-Memory Recurrent Neural Networks to Predict Aviation Engine Vibrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

ElSaid, AbdElRahman Ahmed

This thesis examines building viable Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) using Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) neurons to predict aircraft engine vibrations. The different networks are trained on a large database of flight data records obtained from an airline containing flights that suffered from excessive vibration. RNNs can provide a more generalizable and robust method for prediction over analytical calculations of engine vibration, as analytical calculations must be solved iteratively based on specific empirical engine parameters, and this database contains multiple types of engines. Further, LSTM RNNs provide a "memory" of the contribution of previous time series data which can further improve predictions of future vibration values. LSTM RNNs were used over traditional RNNs, as those suffer from vanishing/exploding gradients when trained with back propagation. The study managed to predict vibration values for 1, 5, 10, and 20 seconds in the future, with 2.84% 3.3%, 5.51% and 10.19% mean absolute error, respectively. These neural networks provide a promising means for the future development of warning systems so that suitable actions can be taken before the occurrence of excess vibration to avoid unfavorable situations during flight.

Artificial neural network modeling of dissolved oxygen in reservoir.

PubMed

Chen, Wei-Bo; Liu, Wen-Cheng

2014-02-01

The water quality of reservoirs is one of the key factors in the operation and water quality management of reservoirs. Dissolved oxygen (DO) in water column is essential for microorganisms and a significant indicator of the state of aquatic ecosystems. In this study, two artificial neural network (ANN) models including back propagation neural network (BPNN) and adaptive neural-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) approaches and multilinear regression (MLR) model were developed to estimate the DO concentration in the Feitsui Reservoir of northern Taiwan. The input variables of the neural network are determined as water temperature, pH, conductivity, turbidity, suspended solids, total hardness, total alkalinity, and ammonium nitrogen. The performance of the ANN models and MLR model was assessed through the mean absolute error, root mean square error, and correlation coefficient computed from the measured and model-simulated DO values. The results reveal that ANN estimation performances were superior to those of MLR. Comparing to the BPNN and ANFIS models through the performance criteria, the ANFIS model is better than the BPNN model for predicting the DO values. Study results show that the neural network particularly using ANFIS model is able to predict the DO concentrations with reasonable accuracy, suggesting that the neural network is a valuable tool for reservoir management in Taiwan.

Neural substrates of visuomotor learning based on improved feedback control and prediction

PubMed Central

Grafton, Scott T.; Schmitt, Paul; Horn, John Van; Diedrichsen, Jörn

2008-01-01

Motor skills emerge from learning feedforward commands as well as improvements in feedback control. These two components of learning were investigated in a compensatory visuomotor tracking task on a trial-by-trial basis. Between trial learning was characterized with a state-space model to provide smoothed estimates of feedforward and feedback learning, separable from random fluctuations in motor performance and error. The resultant parameters were correlated with brain activity using magnetic resonance imaging. Learning related to the generation of a feedforward command correlated with activity in dorsal premotor cortex, inferior parietal lobule, supplementary motor area and cingulate motor area, supporting a role of these areas in retrieving and executing a predictive motor command. Modulation of feedback control was associated with activity in bilateral posterior superior parietal lobule as well as right ventral premotor cortex. Performance error correlated with activity in a widespread cortical and subcortical network including bilateral parietal, premotor and rostral anterior cingulate cortex as well as the cerebellar cortex. Finally, trial-by-trial changes of kinematics, as measured by mean absolute hand acceleration, correlated with activity in motor cortex and anterior cerebellum. The results demonstrate that incremental, learning dependent changes can be modeled on a trial-by-trial basis and neural substrates for feedforward control of novel motor programs are localized to secondary motor areas. PMID:18032069

Characterization of performance-emission indices of a diesel engine using ANFIS operating in dual-fuel mode with LPG

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chakraborty, Amitav; Roy, Sumit; Banerjee, Rahul

2018-03-01

This experimental work highlights the inherent capability of an adaptive-neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) based model to act as a robust system identification tool (SIT) in prognosticating the performance and emission parameters of an existing diesel engine running of diesel-LPG dual fuel mode. The developed model proved its adeptness by successfully harnessing the effects of the input parameters of load, injection duration and LPG energy share on output parameters of BSFCEQ, BTE, NOX, SOOT, CO and HC. Successive evaluation of the ANFIS model, revealed high levels of resemblance with the already forecasted ANN results for the same input parameters and it was evident that similar to ANN, ANFIS also has the innate ability to act as a robust SIT. The ANFIS predicted data harmonized the experimental data with high overall accuracy. The correlation coefficient (R) values are stretched in between 0.99207 to 0.999988. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) tallies were recorded in the range of 0.02-0.173% with the root mean square errors (RMSE) in acceptable margins. Hence the developed model is capable of emulating the actual engine parameters with commendable ranges of accuracy, which in turn would act as a robust prediction platform in the future domains of optimization.

Long-Term Prediction of Emergency Department Revenue and Visitor Volume Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model

PubMed Central

Chen, Chieh-Fan; Ho, Wen-Hsien; Chou, Huei-Yin; Yang, Shu-Mei; Chen, I-Te; Shi, Hon-Yi

2011-01-01

This study analyzed meteorological, clinical and economic factors in terms of their effects on monthly ED revenue and visitor volume. Monthly data from January 1, 2005 to September 30, 2009 were analyzed. Spearman correlation and cross-correlation analyses were performed to identify the correlation between each independent variable, ED revenue, and visitor volume. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to quantify the relationship between each independent variable, ED revenue, and visitor volume. The accuracies were evaluated by comparing model forecasts to actual values with mean absolute percentage of error. Sensitivity of prediction errors to model training time was also evaluated. The ARIMA models indicated that mean maximum temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, non-trauma, and trauma visits may correlate positively with ED revenue, but mean minimum temperature may correlate negatively with ED revenue. Moreover, mean minimum temperature and stock market index fluctuation may correlate positively with trauma visitor volume. Mean maximum temperature, relative humidity and stock market index fluctuation may correlate positively with non-trauma visitor volume. Mean maximum temperature and relative humidity may correlate positively with pediatric visitor volume, but mean minimum temperature may correlate negatively with pediatric visitor volume. The model also performed well in forecasting revenue and visitor volume. PMID:22203886

Long-term prediction of emergency department revenue and visitor volume using autoregressive integrated moving average model.

PubMed

Chen, Chieh-Fan; Ho, Wen-Hsien; Chou, Huei-Yin; Yang, Shu-Mei; Chen, I-Te; Shi, Hon-Yi

2011-01-01

This study analyzed meteorological, clinical and economic factors in terms of their effects on monthly ED revenue and visitor volume. Monthly data from January 1, 2005 to September 30, 2009 were analyzed. Spearman correlation and cross-correlation analyses were performed to identify the correlation between each independent variable, ED revenue, and visitor volume. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to quantify the relationship between each independent variable, ED revenue, and visitor volume. The accuracies were evaluated by comparing model forecasts to actual values with mean absolute percentage of error. Sensitivity of prediction errors to model training time was also evaluated. The ARIMA models indicated that mean maximum temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, non-trauma, and trauma visits may correlate positively with ED revenue, but mean minimum temperature may correlate negatively with ED revenue. Moreover, mean minimum temperature and stock market index fluctuation may correlate positively with trauma visitor volume. Mean maximum temperature, relative humidity and stock market index fluctuation may correlate positively with non-trauma visitor volume. Mean maximum temperature and relative humidity may correlate positively with pediatric visitor volume, but mean minimum temperature may correlate negatively with pediatric visitor volume. The model also performed well in forecasting revenue and visitor volume.

[Fire behavior of Mongolian oak leaves fuel-bed under no-wind and zero-slope conditions. I. Factors affecting fire spread rate and modeling].

PubMed

Jin, Sen; Liu, Bo-Fei; Di, Xue-Ying; Chu, Teng-Fei; Zhang, Ji-Li

2012-01-01

Aimed to understand the fire behavior of Mongolian oak leaves fuel-bed under field condition, the leaves of a secondary Mongolian oak forest in Northeast Forestry University experimental forest farm were collected and brought into laboratory to construct fuel-beds with varied loading, height, and moisture content, and a total of 100 experimental fires were burned under no-wind and zero-slope conditions. It was observed that the fire spread rate of the fuel-beds was less than 0.5 m x min(-1). Fuel-bed loading, height, and moisture contents all had significant effects on the fire spread rate. The effect of fuel-bed moisture content on the fire spread had no significant correlations with fuel-bed loading and height, but the effect of fuel-bed height was related to the fuel-bed loading. The packing ratio of fuel-beds had less effect on the fire spread rate. Taking the fuel-bed loading, height, and moisture content as predictive variables, a prediction model for the fire spread rate of Mongolian oak leaves fuel-bed was established, which could explain 83% of the variance of the fire spread rate, with a mean absolute error 0.04 m x min(-1) and a mean relative error less than 17%.

Auditing for Veracity ``DUE-DILIGENCE" RIGOROUS-HONESTY!!!: Ethics??? Digits? For a Very-Long Time Giving us All the FINGER!!! does ``MEAN" Mean MEAN!!!???

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, Brian; Siegel, E.

2010-03-01

BAD-scienceS UNethics FLOOD: Pilkey[UseLESS-Arithmetic(2007)]- Park[Vodoo Science(2006)]-Dewedny[Yes We Have NO Neutrons(1997)] -LeVay[When Science Goes WRONG(2008)-LBNL/DOE IMAGINARY-element -``118")]Bell-Labs/Alcatel-Lucent/Thales-Group/France: L'AffairS: Jan Hendrik Schoen; Giant-Magnetoresistance: ``Fert"-``Gruenberg" [PRL(1988;1989)]Kern(KFZ)/Reed-Elsevier/Wallenbergs/Enskilda- Bank/InvestorAB/Sweden:LONG-AFTER Siegel[flickr.com, search on ``Giant-Magnetoresistance": find: ICMAO,Haifa(1977); J.Mag.Mag. Mtls.(JMMM)7,312(1978): 1978<<<1988: (1988-1978)=10 years= one full decade!!!-SANS CRUCIAL last-2-R(H)-Figures MISSING-ONLY SCANNED online(7/2008)conveniently 1/2-year AFTER 2007-Physics: Wolf/Japan/Nobel-prizes(12/2007)]-Revkin[dot.earth,NYT(8/2009)] ``Sea-level-Rise Predictions HALVED"(=50%-error:by coin-toss Bern oulli ``super-computer"(SC)!!!)-McNeil[NY(8/2009]``H1N1-Flu (Langer-Carlson-Bak forest-fire SOC:Vespigniani-Germann)epidem- iology-models predicted cases: ˜1,000-3,000 max. VS. same-week CDC-data 100,000-300,000"(=100%-error: by drunk dart-throws New- ton F=ma``SC"(!!!)-Financials(2008)!!!: AD INFIN-ITUM AD NAUSEUM !!! Statistical-lawS[Biostatistics(1998)]:``TRUST, BUT VERIFY !!!": ABSOLUTELY MANDATORY!!!

Aquatic habitat mapping with an acoustic doppler current profiler: Considerations for data quality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gaeuman, David; Jacobson, Robert B.

2005-01-01

When mounted on a boat or other moving platform, acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCPs) can be used to map a wide range of ecologically significant phenomena, including measures of fluid shear, turbulence, vorticity, and near-bed sediment transport. However, the instrument movement necessary for mapping applications can generate significant errors, many of which have not been inadequately described. This report focuses on the mechanisms by which moving-platform errors are generated, and quantifies their magnitudes under typical habitat-mapping conditions. The potential for velocity errors caused by mis-alignment of the instrument?s internal compass are widely recognized, but has not previously been quantified for moving instruments. Numerical analyses show that even relatively minor compass mis-alignments can produce significant velocity errors, depending on the ratio of absolute instrument velocity to the target velocity and on the relative directions of instrument and target motion. A maximum absolute instrument velocity of about 1 m/s is recommended for most mapping applications. Lower velocities are appropriate when making bed velocity measurements, an emerging application that makes use of ADCP bottom-tracking to measure the velocity of sediment particles at the bed. The mechanisms by which heterogeneities in the flow velocity field generate horizontal velocities errors are also quantified, and some basic limitations in the effectiveness of standard error-detection criteria for identifying these errors are described. Bed velocity measurements may be particularly vulnerable to errors caused by spatial variability in the sediment transport field.

Auditory working memory predicts individual differences in absolute pitch learning.

PubMed

Van Hedger, Stephen C; Heald, Shannon L M; Koch, Rachelle; Nusbaum, Howard C

2015-07-01

Absolute pitch (AP) is typically defined as the ability to label an isolated tone as a musical note in the absence of a reference tone. At first glance the acquisition of AP note categories seems like a perceptual learning task, since individuals must assign a category label to a stimulus based on a single perceptual dimension (pitch) while ignoring other perceptual dimensions (e.g., loudness, octave, instrument). AP, however, is rarely discussed in terms of domain-general perceptual learning mechanisms. This is because AP is typically assumed to depend on a critical period of development, in which early exposure to pitches and musical labels is thought to be necessary for the development of AP precluding the possibility of adult acquisition of AP. Despite this view of AP, several previous studies have found evidence that absolute pitch category learning is, to an extent, trainable in a post-critical period adult population, even if the performance typically achieved by this population is below the performance of a "true" AP possessor. The current studies attempt to understand the individual differences in learning to categorize notes using absolute pitch cues by testing a specific prediction regarding cognitive capacity related to categorization - to what extent does an individual's general auditory working memory capacity (WMC) predict the success of absolute pitch category acquisition. Since WMC has been shown to predict performance on a wide variety of other perceptual and category learning tasks, we predict that individuals with higher WMC should be better at learning absolute pitch note categories than individuals with lower WMC. Across two studies, we demonstrate that auditory WMC predicts the efficacy of learning absolute pitch note categories. These results suggest that a higher general auditory WMC might underlie the formation of absolute pitch categories for post-critical period adults. Implications for understanding the mechanisms that underlie the phenomenon of AP are also discussed. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Multiple-Event Seismic Location Using the Markov-Chain Monte Carlo Technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Myers, S. C.; Johannesson, G.; Hanley, W.

2005-12-01

We develop a new multiple-event location algorithm (MCMCloc) that utilizes the Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. Unlike most inverse methods, the MCMC approach produces a suite of solutions, each of which is consistent with observations and prior estimates of data and model uncertainties. Model parameters in MCMCloc consist of event hypocenters, and travel-time predictions. Data are arrival time measurements and phase assignments. Posteriori estimates of event locations, path corrections, pick errors, and phase assignments are made through analysis of the posteriori suite of acceptable solutions. Prior uncertainty estimates include correlations between travel-time predictions, correlations between measurement errors, the probability of misidentifying one phase for another, and the probability of spurious data. Inclusion of prior constraints on location accuracy allows direct utilization of ground-truth locations or well-constrained location parameters (e.g. from InSAR) that aid in the accuracy of the solution. Implementation of a correlation structure for travel-time predictions allows MCMCloc to operate over arbitrarily large geographic areas. Transition in behavior between a multiple-event locator for tightly clustered events and a single-event locator for solitary events is controlled by the spatial correlation of travel-time predictions. We test the MCMC locator on a regional data set of Nevada Test Site nuclear explosions. Event locations and origin times are known for these events, allowing us to test the features of MCMCloc using a high-quality ground truth data set. Preliminary tests suggest that MCMCloc provides excellent relative locations, often outperforming traditional multiple-event location algorithms, and excellent absolute locations are attained when constraints from one or more ground truth event are included. When phase assignments are switched, we find that MCMCloc properly corrects the error when predicted arrival times are separated by several seconds. In cases where the predicted arrival times are within the combined uncertainty of prediction and measurement errors, MCMCloc determines the probability of one or the other phase assignment and propagates this uncertainty into all model parameters. We find that MCMCloc is a promising method for simultaneously locating large, geographically distributed data sets. Because we incorporate prior knowledge on many parameters, MCMCloc is ideal for combining trusted data with data of unknown reliability. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by the University of California Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under contract No. W-7405-Eng-48, Contribution UCRL-ABS-215048

The modelling of lead removal from water by deep eutectic solvents functionalized CNTs: artificial neural network (ANN) approach.

PubMed

Fiyadh, Seef Saadi; AlSaadi, Mohammed Abdulhakim; AlOmar, Mohamed Khalid; Fayaed, Sabah Saadi; Hama, Ako R; Bee, Sharifah; El-Shafie, Ahmed

2017-11-01

The main challenge in the lead removal simulation is the behaviour of non-linearity relationships between the process parameters. The conventional modelling technique usually deals with this problem by a linear method. The substitute modelling technique is an artificial neural network (ANN) system, and it is selected to reflect the non-linearity in the interaction among the variables in the function. Herein, synthesized deep eutectic solvents were used as a functionalized agent with carbon nanotubes as adsorbents of Pb 2+ . Different parameters were used in the adsorption study including pH (2.7 to 7), adsorbent dosage (5 to 20 mg), contact time (3 to 900 min) and Pb 2+ initial concentration (3 to 60 mg/l). The number of experimental trials to feed and train the system was 158 runs conveyed in laboratory scale. Two ANN types were designed in this work, the feed-forward back-propagation and layer recurrent; both methods are compared based on their predictive proficiency in terms of the mean square error (MSE), root mean square error, relative root mean square error, mean absolute percentage error and determination coefficient (R 2 ) based on the testing dataset. The ANN model of lead removal was subjected to accuracy determination and the results showed R 2 of 0.9956 with MSE of 1.66 × 10 -4 . The maximum relative error is 14.93% for the feed-forward back-propagation neural network model.

Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) Mission Commissioning Phase Orbit Determination Error Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chung, Lauren R.; Novak, Stefan; Long, Anne; Gramling, Cheryl

2009-01-01

The Magnetospheric MultiScale (MMS) mission commissioning phase starts in a 185 km altitude x 12 Earth radii (RE) injection orbit and lasts until the Phase 1 mission orbits and orientation to the Earth-Sun li ne are achieved. During a limited time period in the early part of co mmissioning, five maneuvers are performed to raise the perigee radius to 1.2 R E, with a maneuver every other apogee. The current baseline is for the Goddard Space Flight Center Flight Dynamics Facility to p rovide MMS orbit determination support during the early commissioning phase using all available two-way range and Doppler tracking from bo th the Deep Space Network and Space Network. This paper summarizes th e results from a linear covariance analysis to determine the type and amount of tracking data required to accurately estimate the spacecraf t state, plan each perigee raising maneuver, and support thruster cal ibration during this phase. The primary focus of this study is the na vigation accuracy required to plan the first and the final perigee ra ising maneuvers. Absolute and relative position and velocity error hi stories are generated for all cases and summarized in terms of the ma ximum root-sum-square consider and measurement noise error contributi ons over the definitive and predictive arcs and at discrete times inc luding the maneuver planning and execution times. Details of the meth odology, orbital characteristics, maneuver timeline, error models, and error sensitivities are provided.

Comparison of two different methods of preoperative marking for toric intraocular lens implantation: bubble marker versus pendulum marker

PubMed Central

Farooqui, Javed Hussain; Koul, Archana; Dutta, Ranjan; Shroff, Noshir Minoo

2016-01-01

AIM To compare the accuracy of two different methods of preoperative marking for toric intraocular lens (IOL) implantation, bubble marker versus pendulum marker, as a means of establishing the reference point for the final alignment of the toric IOL to achieve an outcome as close as possible to emmetropia. METHODS Toric IOLs were implanted in 180 eyes of 110 patients. One group (55 patients) had preoperative marking of both eyes done with bubble marker (ASICO AE-2791TBL) and the other group (55 patients) with pendulum marker (Rumex®3-193). Reference marks were placed at 3-, 6-, and 9-o'clock positions on the limbus. Slit-lamp photographs were analyzed using Adobe Photoshop (version 7.0). Amount of alignment error (in degrees) induced in each group was measured. RESULTS Mean absolute rotation error in the preoperative marking in the horizontal axis was 2.42±1.71 in the bubble marker group and 2.83±2.31in the pendulum marker group (P=0.501). Sixty percent of the pendulum group and 70% of the bubble group had rotation error ≤3 (P=0.589), and 90% eyes of the pendulum group and 96.7% of the bubble group had rotation error ≤5 (P=0.612). CONCLUSION Both preoperative marking techniques result in approximately 3 of alignment error. Both marking techniques are simple, predictable, reproducible and easy to perform. PMID:27275425

Optimal reentry prediction of space objects from LEO using RSM and GA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mutyalarao, M.; Raj, M. Xavier James

2012-07-01

The accurate estimation of the orbital life time (OLT) of decaying near-Earth objects is of considerable importance for the prediction of risk object re-entry time and hazard assessment as well as for mitigation strategies. Recently, due to the reentries of large number of risk objects, which poses threat to the human life and property, a great concern is developed in the space scientific community all over the World. The evolution of objects in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) is determined by a complex interplay of the perturbing forces, mainly due to atmospheric drag and Earth gravity. These orbits are mostly in low eccentric (eccentricity < 0.2) and have variations in perigee and apogee altitudes due to perturbations during a revolution. The changes in the perigee and apogee altitudes of these orbits are mainly due to the gravitational perturbations of the Earth and the atmospheric density. It has become necessary to use extremely complex force models to match with the present operational requirements and observational techniques. Further the re-entry time of the objects in such orbits is sensitive to the initial conditions. In this paper the problem of predicting re-entry time is attempted as an optimal estimation problem. It is known that the errors are more in eccentricity for the observations based on two line elements (TLEs). Thus two parameters, initial eccentricity and ballistic coefficient, are chosen for optimal estimation. These two parameters are computed with response surface method (RSM) using a genetic algorithm (GA) for the selected time zones, based on rough linear variation of response parameter, the mean semi-major axis during orbit evolution. Error minimization between the observed and predicted mean Semi-major axis is achieved by the application of an optimization algorithm such as Genetic Algorithm (GA). The basic feature of the present approach is that the model and measurement errors are accountable in terms of adjusting the ballistic coefficient and eccentricity. The methodology is tested with the recently reentered objects ROSAT and PHOBOS GRUNT satellites. The study reveals a good agreement with the actual reentry time of these objects. It is also observed that the absolute percentage error in re-entry prediction time for all the two objects is found to be very less. Keywords: low eccentric, Response surface method, Genetic algorithm, apogee altitude, Ballistic coefficient

Quality optimization of H.264/AVC video transmission over noisy environments using a sparse regression framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pandremmenou, K.; Tziortziotis, N.; Paluri, S.; Zhang, W.; Blekas, K.; Kondi, L. P.; Kumar, S.

2015-03-01

We propose the use of the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression method in order to predict the Cumulative Mean Squared Error (CMSE), incurred by the loss of individual slices in video transmission. We extract a number of quality-relevant features from the H.264/AVC video sequences, which are given as input to the LASSO. This method has the benefit of not only keeping a subset of the features that have the strongest effects towards video quality, but also produces accurate CMSE predictions. Particularly, we study the LASSO regression through two different architectures; the Global LASSO (G.LASSO) and Local LASSO (L.LASSO). In G.LASSO, a single regression model is trained for all slice types together, while in L.LASSO, motivated by the fact that the values for some features are closely dependent on the considered slice type, each slice type has its own regression model, in an e ort to improve LASSO's prediction capability. Based on the predicted CMSE values, we group the video slices into four priority classes. Additionally, we consider a video transmission scenario over a noisy channel, where Unequal Error Protection (UEP) is applied to all prioritized slices. The provided results demonstrate the efficiency of LASSO in estimating CMSE with high accuracy, using only a few features. les that typically contain high-entropy data, producing a footprint that is far less conspicuous than existing methods. The system uses a local web server to provide a le system, user interface and applications through an web architecture.

Movement initiation-locked activity of the anterior putamen predicts future movement instability in periodic bimanual movement.

PubMed

Aramaki, Yu; Haruno, Masahiko; Osu, Rieko; Sadato, Norihiro

2011-07-06

In periodic bimanual movements, anti-phase-coordinated patterns often change into in-phase patterns suddenly and involuntarily. Because behavior in the initial period of a sequence of cycles often does not show any obvious errors, it is difficult to predict subsequent movement errors in the later period of the cyclical sequence. Here, we evaluated performance in the later period of the cyclical sequence of bimanual periodic movements using human brain activity measured with functional magnetic resonance imaging as well as using initial movement features. Eighteen subjects performed a 30 s bimanual finger-tapping task. We calculated differences in initiation-locked transient brain activity between antiphase and in-phase tapping conditions. Correlation analysis revealed that the difference in the anterior putamen activity during antiphase compared within-phase tapping conditions was strongly correlated with future instability as measured by the mean absolute deviation of the left-hand intertap interval during antiphase movements relative to in-phase movements (r = 0.81). Among the initial movement features we measured, only the number of taps to establish the antiphase movement pattern exhibited a significant correlation. However, the correlation efficient of 0.60 was not high enough to predict the characteristics of subsequent movement. There was no significant correlation between putamen activity and initial movement features. It is likely that initiating unskilled difficult movements requires increased anterior putamen activity, and this activity increase may facilitate the initiation of movement via the basal ganglia-thalamocortical circuit. Our results suggest that initiation-locked transient activity of the anterior putamen can be used to predict future motor performance.

Predicting Renal Failure Progression in Chronic Kidney Disease Using Integrated Intelligent Fuzzy Expert System.

PubMed

Norouzi, Jamshid; Yadollahpour, Ali; Mirbagheri, Seyed Ahmad; Mazdeh, Mitra Mahdavi; Hosseini, Seyed Ahmad

2016-01-01

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a covert disease. Accurate prediction of CKD progression over time is necessary for reducing its costs and mortality rates. The present study proposes an adaptive neurofuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for predicting the renal failure timeframe of CKD based on real clinical data. This study used 10-year clinical records of newly diagnosed CKD patients. The threshold value of 15 cc/kg/min/1.73 m(2) of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) was used as the marker of renal failure. A Takagi-Sugeno type ANFIS model was used to predict GFR values. Variables of age, sex, weight, underlying diseases, diastolic blood pressure, creatinine, calcium, phosphorus, uric acid, and GFR were initially selected for the predicting model. Weight, diastolic blood pressure, diabetes mellitus as underlying disease, and current GFR(t) showed significant correlation with GFRs and were selected as the inputs of model. The comparisons of the predicted values with the real data showed that the ANFIS model could accurately estimate GFR variations in all sequential periods (Normalized Mean Absolute Error lower than 5%). Despite the high uncertainties of human body and dynamic nature of CKD progression, our model can accurately predict the GFR variations at long future periods.

MemBrain: An Easy-to-Use Online Webserver for Transmembrane Protein Structure Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Xi; Yang, Jing; Xiao, Feng; Yang, Yang; Shen, Hong-Bin

2018-03-01

Membrane proteins are an important kind of proteins embedded in the membranes of cells and play crucial roles in living organisms, such as ion channels, transporters, receptors. Because it is difficult to determinate the membrane protein's structure by wet-lab experiments, accurate and fast amino acid sequence-based computational methods are highly desired. In this paper, we report an online prediction tool called MemBrain, whose input is the amino acid sequence. MemBrain consists of specialized modules for predicting transmembrane helices, residue-residue contacts and relative accessible surface area of α-helical membrane proteins. MemBrain achieves a prediction accuracy of 97.9% of A TMH, 87.1% of A P, 3.2 ± 3.0 of N-score, 3.1 ± 2.8 of C-score. MemBrain-Contact obtains 62%/64.1% prediction accuracy on training and independent dataset on top L/5 contact prediction, respectively. And MemBrain-Rasa achieves Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.733 and its mean absolute error of 13.593. These prediction results provide valuable hints for revealing the structure and function of membrane proteins. MemBrain web server is free for academic use and available at www.csbio.sjtu.edu.cn/bioinf/MemBrain/. [Figure not available: see fulltext.

Keratometry obtained by corneal mapping versus the IOLMaster in the prediction of postoperative refraction in routine cataract surgery.

PubMed

Dulku, Simon; Smith, Henry B; Antcliff, Richard J

2013-01-01

To establish whether simulated keratometry values obtained by corneal mapping (videokeratography) would provide a superior refractive outcome to those obtained by Zeiss IOLMaster (partial coherence interferometry) in routine cataract surgery. Prospective, non-randomized, single-surgeon study set at the The Royal United Hospital, Bath, UK, District General Hospital. Thirty-three patients undergoing routine cataract surgery in the absence of significant ocular comorbidity. Conventional biometry was recorded using the Zeiss IOLMaster. Postoperative refraction was calculated using the SRK/T formula and the most appropriate power of lens implanted. Preoperative keratometry values were also obtained using Humphrey Instruments Atlas Version A6 corneal mapping. Achieved refraction was compared with predicted refraction for the two methods of keratometry after the A-constants were optimized to obtain a mean arithmetic error of zero dioptres for each device. The mean absolute prediction error was 0.39 dioptres (standard deviation 0.29) for IOLMaster and 0.48 dioptres (standard deviation 0.31) for corneal mapping (P = 0.0015). Keratometry readings between the devices were highly correlated by Spearman correlation (0.97). The Bland-Altman plot demonstrated close agreement between keratometers, with a bias of 0.0079 dioptres and 95% limits of agreement of -0.48-0.49 dioptres. The IOLMaster was superior to Humphrey Atlas A6 corneal mapping in the prediction of postoperative refraction. This difference could not have been predicted from the keratometry readings alone. When comparing biometry devices, close agreement between readings should not be considered a substitute for actual postoperative refraction data. © 2012 The Authors. Clinical and Experimental Ophthalmology © 2012 Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Ophthalmologists.

Analysis and prediction of flow from local source in a river basin using a Neuro-fuzzy modeling tool.

PubMed

Aqil, Muhammad; Kita, Ichiro; Yano, Akira; Nishiyama, Soichi

2007-10-01

Traditionally, the multiple linear regression technique has been one of the most widely used models in simulating hydrological time series. However, when the nonlinear phenomenon is significant, the multiple linear will fail to develop an appropriate predictive model. Recently, neuro-fuzzy systems have gained much popularity for calibrating the nonlinear relationships. This study evaluated the potential of a neuro-fuzzy system as an alternative to the traditional statistical regression technique for the purpose of predicting flow from a local source in a river basin. The effectiveness of the proposed identification technique was demonstrated through a simulation study of the river flow time series of the Citarum River in Indonesia. Furthermore, in order to provide the uncertainty associated with the estimation of river flow, a Monte Carlo simulation was performed. As a comparison, a multiple linear regression analysis that was being used by the Citarum River Authority was also examined using various statistical indices. The simulation results using 95% confidence intervals indicated that the neuro-fuzzy model consistently underestimated the magnitude of high flow while the low and medium flow magnitudes were estimated closer to the observed data. The comparison of the prediction accuracy of the neuro-fuzzy and linear regression methods indicated that the neuro-fuzzy approach was more accurate in predicting river flow dynamics. The neuro-fuzzy model was able to improve the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) values of the multiple linear regression forecasts by about 13.52% and 10.73%, respectively. Considering its simplicity and efficiency, the neuro-fuzzy model is recommended as an alternative tool for modeling of flow dynamics in the study area.

The BREAST-V: a unifying predictive formula for volume assessment in small, medium, and large breasts.

PubMed

Longo, Benedetto; Farcomeni, Alessio; Ferri, Germano; Campanale, Antonella; Sorotos, Micheal; Santanelli, Fabio

2013-07-01

Breast volume assessment enhances preoperative planning of both aesthetic and reconstructive procedures, helping the surgeon in the decision-making process of shaping the breast. Numerous methods of breast size determination are currently reported but are limited by methodologic flaws and variable estimations. The authors aimed to develop a unifying predictive formula for volume assessment in small to large breasts based on anthropomorphic values. Ten anthropomorphic breast measurements and direct volumes of 108 mastectomy specimens from 88 women were collected prospectively. The authors performed a multivariate regression to build the optimal model for development of the predictive formula. The final model was then internally validated. A previously published formula was used as a reference. Mean (±SD) breast weight was 527.9 ± 227.6 g (range, 150 to 1250 g). After model selection, sternal notch-to-nipple, inframammary fold-to-nipple, and inframammary fold-to-fold projection distances emerged as the most important predictors. The resulting formula (the BREAST-V) showed an adjusted R of 0.73. The estimated expected absolute error on new breasts is 89.7 g (95 percent CI, 62.4 to 119.1 g) and the expected relative error is 18.4 percent (95 percent CI, 12.9 to 24.3 percent). Application of reference formula on the sample yielded worse predictions than those derived by the formula, showing an R of 0.55. The BREAST-V is a reliable tool for predicting small to large breast volumes accurately for use as a complementary device in surgeon evaluation. An app entitled BREAST-V for both iOS and Android devices is currently available for free download in the Apple App Store and Google Play Store. Diagnostic, II.

Use of nonlinear models for describing scrotal circumference growth in Guzerat bulls raised under grazing conditions.

PubMed

Loaiza-Echeverri, A M; Bergmann, J A G; Toral, F L B; Osorio, J P; Carmo, A S; Mendonça, L F; Moustacas, V S; Henry, M

2013-03-15

The objective was to use various nonlinear models to describe scrotal circumference (SC) growth in Guzerat bulls on three farms in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. The nonlinear models were: Brody, Logistic, Gompertz, Richards, Von Bertalanffy, and Tanaka, where parameter A is the estimated testis size at maturity, B is the integration constant, k is a maturating index and, for the Richards and Tanaka models, m determines the inflection point. In Tanaka, A is an indefinite size of the testis, and B and k adjust the shape and inclination of the curve. A total of 7410 SC records were obtained every 3 months from 1034 bulls with ages varying between 2 and 69 months (<240 days of age = 159; 241-365 days = 451; 366-550 days = 1443; 551-730 days = 1705; and >731 days = 3652 SC measurements). Goodness of fit was evaluated by coefficients of determination (R(2)), error sum of squares, average prediction error (APE), and mean absolute deviation. The Richards model did not reach the convergence criterion. The R(2) were similar for all models (0.68-0.69). The error sum of squares was lowest for the Tanaka model. All models fit the SC data poorly in the early and late periods. Logistic was the model which best estimated SC in the early phase (based on APE and mean absolute deviation). The Tanaka and Logistic models had the lowest APE between 300 and 1600 days of age. The Logistic model was chosen for analysis of the environmental influence on parameters A and k. Based on absolute growth rate, SC increased from 0.019 cm/d, peaking at 0.025 cm/d between 318 and 435 days of age. Farm, year, and season of birth significantly affected size of adult SC and SC growth rate. An increase in SC adult size (parameter A) was accompanied by decreased SC growth rate (parameter k). In conclusion, SC growth in Guzerat bulls was characterized by an accelerated growth phase, followed by decreased growth; this was best represented by the Logistic model. The inflection point occurred at approximately 376 days of age (mean SC of 17.9 cm). We inferred that early selection of testicular size might result in smaller testes at maturity. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

SU-F-T-330: Characterization of the Clinically Released ScandiDos Discover Diode Array for In-Vivo Dose Monitoring

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Saenz, D; Gutierrez, A

Purpose: The ScandiDos Discover has obtained FDA clearance and is now clinically released. We studied the essential attenuation and beam hardening components as well as tested the diode array’s ability to detect changes in absolute dose and MLC leaf positions. Methods: The ScandiDos Discover was mounted on the heads of an Elekta VersaHD and a Varian 23EX. Beam attenuation measurements were made at 10 cm depth for 6 MV and 18 MV beam energies. The PDD(10) was measured as a metric for the effect on beam quality. Next, a plan consisting of two orthogonal 10 × 10 cm2 fields wasmore » used to adjust the dose per fraction by scaling monitor units to test the absolute dose detection sensitivity of the Discover. A second plan (conformal arc) was then delivered several times independently on the Elekta VersaHD. Artificially introduced MLC position errors in the four central leaves were then added. The errors were incrementally increased from 1 mm to 4 mm and back across seven control points. Results: The absolute dose measured at 10 cm depth decreased by 1.2% and 0.7% for 6 MV and 18 MV beam with the Discover, respectively. Attenuation depended slightly on the field size but only changed the attenuation by 0.1% across 5 × 5 cm{sup 2} and 20 − 20 cm{sup 2} fields. The change in PDD(10) for a 10 − 10 cm{sup 2} field was +0.1% and +0.6% for 6 MV and 18 MV, respectively. Changes in monitor units from −5.0% to 5.0% were faithfully detected. Detected leaf errors were within 1.0 mm of intended errors. Conclusion: A novel in-vivo dosimeter monitoring the radiation beam during treatment was examined through its attenuation and beam hardening characteristics. The device tracked with changes in absolute dose as well as introduced leaf position deviations.« less

A Model of Self-Monitoring Blood Glucose Measurement Error.

PubMed

Vettoretti, Martina; Facchinetti, Andrea; Sparacino, Giovanni; Cobelli, Claudio

2017-07-01

A reliable model of the probability density function (PDF) of self-monitoring of blood glucose (SMBG) measurement error would be important for several applications in diabetes, like testing in silico insulin therapies. In the literature, the PDF of SMBG error is usually described by a Gaussian function, whose symmetry and simplicity are unable to properly describe the variability of experimental data. Here, we propose a new methodology to derive more realistic models of SMBG error PDF. The blood glucose range is divided into zones where error (absolute or relative) presents a constant standard deviation (SD). In each zone, a suitable PDF model is fitted by maximum-likelihood to experimental data. Model validation is performed by goodness-of-fit tests. The method is tested on two databases collected by the One Touch Ultra 2 (OTU2; Lifescan Inc, Milpitas, CA) and the Bayer Contour Next USB (BCN; Bayer HealthCare LLC, Diabetes Care, Whippany, NJ). In both cases, skew-normal and exponential models are used to describe the distribution of errors and outliers, respectively. Two zones were identified: zone 1 with constant SD absolute error; zone 2 with constant SD relative error. Goodness-of-fit tests confirmed that identified PDF models are valid and superior to Gaussian models used so far in the literature. The proposed methodology allows to derive realistic models of SMBG error PDF. These models can be used in several investigations of present interest in the scientific community, for example, to perform in silico clinical trials to compare SMBG-based with nonadjunctive CGM-based insulin treatments.

Regression Analysis of Top of Descent Location for Idle-thrust Descents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stell, Laurel; Bronsvoort, Jesper; McDonald, Greg

2013-01-01

In this paper, multiple regression analysis is used to model the top of descent (TOD) location of user-preferred descent trajectories computed by the flight management system (FMS) on over 1000 commercial flights into Melbourne, Australia. The independent variables cruise altitude, final altitude, cruise Mach, descent speed, wind, and engine type were also recorded or computed post-operations. Both first-order and second-order models are considered, where cross-validation, hypothesis testing, and additional analysis are used to compare models. This identifies the models that should give the smallest errors if used to predict TOD location for new data in the future. A model that is linear in TOD altitude, final altitude, descent speed, and wind gives an estimated standard deviation of 3.9 nmi for TOD location given the trajec- tory parameters, which means about 80% of predictions would have error less than 5 nmi in absolute value. This accuracy is better than demonstrated by other ground automation predictions using kinetic models. Furthermore, this approach would enable online learning of the model. Additional data or further knowl- edge of algorithms is necessary to conclude definitively that no second-order terms are appropriate. Possible applications of the linear model are described, including enabling arriving aircraft to fly optimized descents computed by the FMS even in congested airspace. In particular, a model for TOD location that is linear in the independent variables would enable decision support tool human-machine interfaces for which a kinetic approach would be computationally too slow.

A spectral-spatial-dynamic hierarchical Bayesian (SSD-HB) model for estimating soybean yield

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kazama, Yoriko; Kujirai, Toshihiro

2014-10-01

A method called a "spectral-spatial-dynamic hierarchical-Bayesian (SSD-HB) model," which can deal with many parameters (such as spectral and weather information all together) by reducing the occurrence of multicollinearity, is proposed. Experiments conducted on soybean yields in Brazil fields with a RapidEye satellite image indicate that the proposed SSD-HB model can predict soybean yield with a higher degree of accuracy than other estimation methods commonly used in remote-sensing applications. In the case of the SSD-HB model, the mean absolute error between estimated yield of the target area and actual yield is 0.28 t/ha, compared to 0.34 t/ha when conventional PLS regression was applied, showing the potential effectiveness of the proposed model.

Neural network versus classical time series forecasting models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nor, Maria Elena; Safuan, Hamizah Mohd; Shab, Noorzehan Fazahiyah Md; Asrul, Mohd; Abdullah, Affendi; Mohamad, Nurul Asmaa Izzati; Lee, Muhammad Hisyam

2017-05-01

Artificial neural network (ANN) has advantage in time series forecasting as it has potential to solve complex forecasting problems. This is because ANN is data driven approach which able to be trained to map past values of a time series. In this study the forecast performance between neural network and classical time series forecasting method namely seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models was being compared by utilizing gold price data. Moreover, the effect of different data preprocessing on the forecast performance of neural network being examined. The forecast accuracy was evaluated using mean absolute deviation, root mean square error and mean absolute percentage error. It was found that ANN produced the most accurate forecast when Box-Cox transformation was used as data preprocessing.

40 CFR 1065.1005 - Symbols, abbreviations, acronyms, and units of measure.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... of diameters meter per meter m/m 1 b atomic oxygen-to-carbon ratio mole per mole mol/mol 1 C # number... error between a quantity and its reference e brake-specific emission or fuel consumption gram per... standard deviation S Sutherland constant kelvin K K SEE standard estimate of error T absolute temperature...

Non-covalent interactions across organic and biological subsets of chemical space: Physics-based potentials parametrized from machine learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bereau, Tristan; DiStasio, Robert A.; Tkatchenko, Alexandre; von Lilienfeld, O. Anatole

2018-06-01

Classical intermolecular potentials typically require an extensive parametrization procedure for any new compound considered. To do away with prior parametrization, we propose a combination of physics-based potentials with machine learning (ML), coined IPML, which is transferable across small neutral organic and biologically relevant molecules. ML models provide on-the-fly predictions for environment-dependent local atomic properties: electrostatic multipole coefficients (significant error reduction compared to previously reported), the population and decay rate of valence atomic densities, and polarizabilities across conformations and chemical compositions of H, C, N, and O atoms. These parameters enable accurate calculations of intermolecular contributions—electrostatics, charge penetration, repulsion, induction/polarization, and many-body dispersion. Unlike other potentials, this model is transferable in its ability to handle new molecules and conformations without explicit prior parametrization: All local atomic properties are predicted from ML, leaving only eight global parameters—optimized once and for all across compounds. We validate IPML on various gas-phase dimers at and away from equilibrium separation, where we obtain mean absolute errors between 0.4 and 0.7 kcal/mol for several chemically and conformationally diverse datasets representative of non-covalent interactions in biologically relevant molecules. We further focus on hydrogen-bonded complexes—essential but challenging due to their directional nature—where datasets of DNA base pairs and amino acids yield an extremely encouraging 1.4 kcal/mol error. Finally, and as a first look, we consider IPML for denser systems: water clusters, supramolecular host-guest complexes, and the benzene crystal.

Adjusted adaptive Lasso for covariate model-building in nonlinear mixed-effect pharmacokinetic models.

PubMed

Haem, Elham; Harling, Kajsa; Ayatollahi, Seyyed Mohammad Taghi; Zare, Najaf; Karlsson, Mats O

2017-02-01

One important aim in population pharmacokinetics (PK) and pharmacodynamics is identification and quantification of the relationships between the parameters and covariates. Lasso has been suggested as a technique for simultaneous estimation and covariate selection. In linear regression, it has been shown that Lasso possesses no oracle properties, which means it asymptotically performs as though the true underlying model was given in advance. Adaptive Lasso (ALasso) with appropriate initial weights is claimed to possess oracle properties; however, it can lead to poor predictive performance when there is multicollinearity between covariates. This simulation study implemented a new version of ALasso, called adjusted ALasso (AALasso), to take into account the ratio of the standard error of the maximum likelihood (ML) estimator to the ML coefficient as the initial weight in ALasso to deal with multicollinearity in non-linear mixed-effect models. The performance of AALasso was compared with that of ALasso and Lasso. PK data was simulated in four set-ups from a one-compartment bolus input model. Covariates were created by sampling from a multivariate standard normal distribution with no, low (0.2), moderate (0.5) or high (0.7) correlation. The true covariates influenced only clearance at different magnitudes. AALasso, ALasso and Lasso were compared in terms of mean absolute prediction error and error of the estimated covariate coefficient. The results show that AALasso performed better in small data sets, even in those in which a high correlation existed between covariates. This makes AALasso a promising method for covariate selection in nonlinear mixed-effect models.

Metric Identification and Protocol Development for Characterizing DNAPL Source Zone Architecture and Associated Plume Response

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-01

M.4.1. Two-dimensional domains cropped out of three-dimensional numerically generated realizations; (a) 3D PCE-NAPL realizations generated by UTCHEM...165 Figure R.3.2. The absolute error vs relative error scatter plots of pM and gM from SGS data set- 4 using multi-task manifold...error scatter plots of pM and gM from TP/MC data set using multi- task manifold regression