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Sample records for absolute risk estimates

  1. [Estimation of absolute risk for fracture].

    PubMed

    Fujiwara, Saeko

    2009-03-01

    Osteoporosis treatment aims to prevent fractures and maintain the QOL of the elderly. However, persons at high risk of future fracture cannot be effectively identified on the basis of bone density (BMD) alone, although BMD is used as an diagnostic criterion. Therefore, the WHO recommended that absolute risk for fracture (10-year probability of fracture) for each individual be evaluated and used as an index for intervention threshold. The 10-year probability of fracture is calculated based on age, sex, BMD at the femoral neck (body mass index if BMD is not available), history of previous fractures, parental hip fracture history, smoking, steroid use, rheumatoid arthritis, secondary osteoporosis and alcohol consumption. The WHO has just announced the development of a calculation tool (FRAX: WHO Fracture Risk Assessment Tool) in February this year. Fractures could be prevented more effectively if, based on each country's medical circumstances, an absolute risk value for fracture to determine when to start medical treatment is established and persons at high risk of fracture are identified and treated accordingly.

  2. Estimating Absolute Site Effects

    SciTech Connect

    Malagnini, L; Mayeda, K M; Akinci, A; Bragato, P L

    2004-07-15

    The authors use previously determined direct-wave attenuation functions as well as stable, coda-derived source excitation spectra to isolate the absolute S-wave site effect for the horizontal and vertical components of weak ground motion. They used selected stations in the seismic network of the eastern Alps, and find the following: (1) all ''hard rock'' sites exhibited deamplification phenomena due to absorption at frequencies ranging between 0.5 and 12 Hz (the available bandwidth), on both the horizontal and vertical components; (2) ''hard rock'' site transfer functions showed large variability at high-frequency; (3) vertical-motion site transfer functions show strong frequency-dependence, and (4) H/V spectral ratios do not reproduce the characteristics of the true horizontal site transfer functions; (5) traditional, relative site terms obtained by using reference ''rock sites'' can be misleading in inferring the behaviors of true site transfer functions, since most rock sites have non-flat responses due to shallow heterogeneities resulting from varying degrees of weathering. They also use their stable source spectra to estimate total radiated seismic energy and compare against previous results. they find that the earthquakes in this region exhibit non-constant dynamic stress drop scaling which gives further support for a fundamental difference in rupture dynamics between small and large earthquakes. To correct the vertical and horizontal S-wave spectra for attenuation, they used detailed regional attenuation functions derived by Malagnini et al. (2002) who determined frequency-dependent geometrical spreading and Q for the region. These corrections account for the gross path effects (i.e., all distance-dependent effects), although the source and site effects are still present in the distance-corrected spectra. The main goal of this study is to isolate the absolute site effect (as a function of frequency) by removing the source spectrum (moment-rate spectrum) from

  3. Potential Biases in Estimating Absolute and Relative Case-Fatality Risks during Outbreaks

    PubMed Central

    Lipsitch, Marc; Donnelly, Christl A.; Fraser, Christophe; Blake, Isobel M.; Cori, Anne; Dorigatti, Ilaria; Ferguson, Neil M.; Garske, Tini; Mills, Harriet L.; Riley, Steven; Van Kerkhove, Maria D.; Hernán, Miguel A.

    2015-01-01

    Estimating the case-fatality risk (CFR)—the probability that a person dies from an infection given that they are a case—is a high priority in epidemiologic investigation of newly emerging infectious diseases and sometimes in new outbreaks of known infectious diseases. The data available to estimate the overall CFR are often gathered for other purposes (e.g., surveillance) in challenging circumstances. We describe two forms of bias that may affect the estimation of the overall CFR—preferential ascertainment of severe cases and bias from reporting delays—and review solutions that have been proposed and implemented in past epidemics. Also of interest is the estimation of the causal impact of specific interventions (e.g., hospitalization, or hospitalization at a particular hospital) on survival, which can be estimated as a relative CFR for two or more groups. When observational data are used for this purpose, three more sources of bias may arise: confounding, survivorship bias, and selection due to preferential inclusion in surveillance datasets of those who are hospitalized and/or die. We illustrate these biases and caution against causal interpretation of differential CFR among those receiving different interventions in observational datasets. Again, we discuss ways to reduce these biases, particularly by estimating outcomes in smaller but more systematically defined cohorts ascertained before the onset of symptoms, such as those identified by forward contact tracing. Finally, we discuss the circumstances in which these biases may affect non-causal interpretation of risk factors for death among cases. PMID:26181387

  4. The performance of different propensity-score methods for estimating differences in proportions (risk differences or absolute risk reductions) in observational studies.

    PubMed

    Austin, Peter C

    2010-09-10

    Propensity score methods are increasingly being used to estimate the effects of treatments on health outcomes using observational data. There are four methods for using the propensity score to estimate treatment effects: covariate adjustment using the propensity score, stratification on the propensity score, propensity-score matching, and inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) using the propensity score. When outcomes are binary, the effect of treatment on the outcome can be described using odds ratios, relative risks, risk differences, or the number needed to treat. Several clinical commentators suggested that risk differences and numbers needed to treat are more meaningful for clinical decision making than are odds ratios or relative risks. However, there is a paucity of information about the relative performance of the different propensity-score methods for estimating risk differences. We conducted a series of Monte Carlo simulations to examine this issue. We examined bias, variance estimation, coverage of confidence intervals, mean-squared error (MSE), and type I error rates. A doubly robust version of IPTW had superior performance compared with the other propensity-score methods. It resulted in unbiased estimation of risk differences, treatment effects with the lowest standard errors, confidence intervals with the correct coverage rates, and correct type I error rates. Stratification, matching on the propensity score, and covariate adjustment using the propensity score resulted in minor to modest bias in estimating risk differences. Estimators based on IPTW had lower MSE compared with other propensity-score methods. Differences between IPTW and propensity-score matching may reflect that these two methods estimate the average treatment effect and the average treatment effect for the treated, respectively.

  5. An estimate of global absolute dynamic topography

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tai, C.-K.; Wunsch, C.

    1984-01-01

    The absolute dynamic topography of the world ocean is estimated from the largest scales to a short-wavelength cutoff of about 6700 km for the period July through September, 1978. The data base consisted of the time-averaged sea-surface topography determined by Seasat and geoid estimates made at the Goddard Space Flight Center. The issues are those of accuracy and resolution. Use of the altimetric surface as a geoid estimate beyond the short-wavelength cutoff reduces the spectral leakage in the estimated dynamic topography from erroneous small-scale geoid estimates without contaminating the low wavenumbers. Comparison of the result with a similarly filtered version of Levitus' (1982) historical average dynamic topography shows good qualitative agreement. There is quantitative disagreement, but it is within the estimated errors of both methods of calculation.

  6. Accurate absolute GPS positioning through satellite clock error estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Han, S.-C.; Kwon, J. H.; Jekeli, C.

    2001-05-01

    An algorithm for very accurate absolute positioning through Global Positioning System (GPS) satellite clock estimation has been developed. Using International GPS Service (IGS) precise orbits and measurements, GPS clock errors were estimated at 30-s intervals. Compared to values determined by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, the agreement was at the level of about 0.1 ns (3 cm). The clock error estimates were then applied to an absolute positioning algorithm in both static and kinematic modes. For the static case, an IGS station was selected and the coordinates were estimated every 30 s. The estimated absolute position coordinates and the known values had a mean difference of up to 18 cm with standard deviation less than 2 cm. For the kinematic case, data obtained every second from a GPS buoy were tested and the result from the absolute positioning was compared to a differential GPS (DGPS) solution. The mean differences between the coordinates estimated by the two methods are less than 40 cm and the standard deviations are less than 25 cm. It was verified that this poorer standard deviation on 1-s position results is due to the clock error interpolation from 30-s estimates with Selective Availability (SA). After SA was turned off, higher-rate clock error estimates (such as 1 s) could be obtained by a simple interpolation with negligible corruption. Therefore, the proposed absolute positioning technique can be used to within a few centimeters' precision at any rate by estimating 30-s satellite clock errors and interpolating them.

  7. Least absolute value state estimation with equality and inequality constraints

    SciTech Connect

    Abur, A. ); Celik, M.K. )

    1993-05-01

    A least absolute value (LAV) state estimator, which can handle both equality and inequality constraints on measurements, is developed. It is shown that, the use of equality constraints will actually reduce the number of Simplex iterations and thus the overall cpu time. The constraints can be used to enhance the reliability of the state estimator without affecting the computational efficiency of the estimator. The developed estimation program is tested using 14 through 1,000 bus power systems.

  8. The importance of calculating absolute rather than relative fracture risk.

    PubMed

    Tucker, Graeme; Metcalfe, Andrew; Pearce, Charles; Need, Allan G; Dick, Ian M; Prince, Richard L; Nordin, B E Christopher

    2007-12-01

    The relation between fracture risk and bone mineral density (BMD) is commonly expressed as a multiplicative factor which is said to represent the increase in risk for each standard deviation fall in BMD. This practice assumes that risk increases multiplicatively with each unit fall in bone density, which is not correct. Although odds increase multiplicatively, absolute risk, which lies between 0 and 1, cannot do so though it can be derived from odds by the term Odds/(1+Odds). This concept is illustrated in a prospective study of 1098 women over age 69 followed for 6 years in a calcium trial in which hip BMD was measured in the second year. 304 Women (27.6%) had prevalent fractures and 198 (18.1%) incident fractures with a significant association between them (P 0.005). Age-adjusted hip BMD and T-score were significantly lower in those with prevalent fractures than in those without (P 0.003) and significantly lower in those with incident fractures than in those without (P 0.001). When the data were analysed by univariate logistic regression, the fracture odds at zero T-score were 0.130 and the rise in odds for each unit fall in hip T-score was 1.55. When these odds were converted to risks, there was a progressive divergence between odds and risk at T-scores below zero. Multiple logistic regression yielded significant odds ratios of 1.47 for each 5-year increase in age, 1.47 for prevalent fracture and 1.49 for each unit fall in hip T-score. Calcium therapy was not significant. Poisson regression, logistic regression and Cox's proportional hazards yielded very similar outcomes when converted into absolute risks. A nomogram was constructed to enable clinicians to estimate the approximate 6-year fracture risk from hip T-score, age and prevalent fracture which can probably be applied (with appropriate correction) to men as well as to women. We conclude that multiplicative factors can be applied to odds but not to risk and that multipliers of risk tend to overstate the

  9. Optimized replica gas estimation of absolute integrals and partition functions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Minh, David D. L.

    2010-09-01

    In contrast with most Monte Carlo integration algorithms, which are used to estimate ratios, the replica gas identities recently introduced by Adib enable the estimation of absolute integrals and partition functions using multiple copies of a system and normalized transition functions. Here, an optimized form is presented. After generalizing a replica gas identity with an arbitrary weighting function, we obtain a functional form that has the minimal asymptotic variance for samples from two replicas and is provably good for a larger number. This equation is demonstrated to improve the convergence of partition function estimates in a two-dimensional Ising model.

  10. Optimized replica gas estimation of absolute integrals and partition functions.

    SciTech Connect

    Minh, D.

    2010-01-01

    In contrast with most Monte Carlo integration algorithms, which are used to estimate ratios, the replica gas identities recently introduced by Adib enable the estimation of absolute integrals and partition functions using multiple copies of a system and normalized transition functions. Here, an optimized form is presented. After generalizing a replica gas identity with an arbitrary weighting function, we obtain a functional form that has the minimal asymptotic variance for samples from two replicas and is provably good for a larger number. This equation is demonstrated to improve the convergence of partition function estimates in a two-dimensional Ising model.

  11. Estimating risks of perinatal death.

    PubMed

    Smith, Gordon C S

    2005-01-01

    The relative and absolute risks of perinatal death that are estimated from observational studies are used frequently in counseling about obstetric intervention. The statistical basis for these estimates therefore is crucial, but many studies are seriously flawed. In this review, a number of aspects of the approach to the estimation of the risk of perinatal death are addressed. Key factors in the analysis include (1) the definition of the cause of the death, (2) differentiation between antepartum and intrapartum events, (3) the use of the appropriate denominator for the given cause of death, (4) the assessment of the cumulative risk where appropriate, (5) the use of appropriate statistical tests, (6) the stratification of analysis of delivery-related deaths by gestational age, and (7) the specific features of multiple pregnancy, which include the correct determination of the timing of antepartum stillbirth and the use of paired statistical tests when outcomes are compared in relation to the birth order of twin pairs.

  12. Estimating Radiogenic Cancer Risks

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This document presents a revised methodology for EPA's estimation of cancer risks due to low-LET radiation exposures developed in light of information that has become available, especially new information on the Japanese atomic bomb survivors.

  13. Injury Risk Estimation Expertise

    PubMed Central

    Petushek, Erich J.; Ward, Paul; Cokely, Edward T.; Myer, Gregory D.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Simple observational assessment of movement is a potentially low-cost method for anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury screening and prevention. Although many individuals utilize some form of observational assessment of movement, there are currently no substantial data on group skill differences in observational screening of ACL injury risk. Purpose/Hypothesis: The purpose of this study was to compare various groups’ abilities to visually assess ACL injury risk as well as the associated strategies and ACL knowledge levels. The hypothesis was that sports medicine professionals would perform better than coaches and exercise science academics/students and that these subgroups would all perform better than parents and other general population members. Study Design: Cross-sectional study; Level of evidence, 3. Methods: A total of 428 individuals, including physicians, physical therapists, athletic trainers, strength and conditioning coaches, exercise science researchers/students, athletes, parents, and members of the general public participated in the study. Participants completed the ACL Injury Risk Estimation Quiz (ACL-IQ) and answered questions related to assessment strategy and ACL knowledge. Results: Strength and conditioning coaches, athletic trainers, physical therapists, and exercise science students exhibited consistently superior ACL injury risk estimation ability (+2 SD) as compared with sport coaches, parents of athletes, and members of the general public. The performance of a substantial number of individuals in the exercise sciences/sports medicines (approximately 40%) was similar to or exceeded clinical instrument-based biomechanical assessment methods (eg, ACL nomogram). Parents, sport coaches, and the general public had lower ACL-IQ, likely due to their lower ACL knowledge and to rating the importance of knee/thigh motion lower and weight and jump height higher. Conclusion: Substantial cross-professional/group differences in visual ACL

  14. Assessing absolute changes in breast cancer risk due to modifiable risk factors.

    PubMed

    Quante, Anne S; Herz, Julia; Whittemore, Alice S; Fischer, Christine; Strauch, Konstantin; Terry, Mary Beth

    2015-07-01

    Clinical risk assessment involves absolute risk measures, but information on modifying risk and preventing cancer is often communicated in relative terms. To illustrate the potential impact of risk factor modification in model-based risk assessment, we evaluated the performance of the IBIS Breast Cancer Risk Evaluation Tool, with and without current body mass index (BMI), for predicting future breast cancer occurrence in a prospective cohort of 665 postmenopausal women. Overall, IBIS's accuracy (overall agreement between observed and assigned risks) and discrimination (AUC concordance between assigned risks and outcomes) were similar with and without the BMI information. However, in women with BMI > 25 kg/m(2), adding BMI information improved discrimination (AUC = 63.9 % and 61.4 % with and without BMI, P < 0.001). The model-assigned 10-year risk difference for a woman with high (27 kg/m(2)) versus low (21 kg/m(2)) BMI was only 0.3 % for a woman with neither affected first-degree relatives nor BRCA1 mutation, compared to 4.5 % for a mutation carrier with three such relatives. This contrast illustrates the value of using information on modifiable risk factors in risk assessment and in sharing information with patients of their absolute risks with and without modifiable risk factors.

  15. Uncertainty Estimation in Intensity-Modulated Radiotherapy Absolute Dosimetry Verification

    SciTech Connect

    Sanchez-Doblado, Francisco . E-mail: paco@us.es; Hartmann, Guenther H.; Pena, Javier; Capote, Roberto; Paiusco, Marta; Rhein, Bernhard; Leal, Antonio; Lagares, Juan Ignacio

    2007-05-01

    Purpose: Intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) represents an important method for improving RT. The IMRT relative dosimetry checks are well established; however, open questions remain in reference dosimetry with ionization chambers (ICs). The main problem is the departure of the measurement conditions from the reference ones; thus, additional uncertainty is introduced into the dose determination. The goal of this study was to assess this effect systematically. Methods and Materials: Monte Carlo calculations and dosimetric measurements with five different detectors were performed for a number of representative IMRT cases, covering both step-and-shoot and dynamic delivery. Results: Using ICs with volumes of about 0.125 cm{sup 3} or less, good agreement was observed among the detectors in most of the situations studied. These results also agreed well with the Monte Carlo-calculated nonreference correction factors (c factors). Additionally, we found a general correlation between the IC position relative to a segment and the derived correction factor c, which can be used to estimate the expected overall uncertainty of the treatment. Conclusion: The increase of the reference dose relative standard uncertainty measured with ICs introduced by nonreference conditions when verifying an entire IMRT plan is about 1-1.5%, provided that appropriate small-volume chambers are used. The overall standard uncertainty of the measured IMRT dose amounts to about 2.3%, including the 0.5% of reproducibility and 1.5% of uncertainty associated with the beam calibration factor. Solid state detectors and large-volume chambers are not well suited to IMRT verification dosimetry because of the greater uncertainties. An action level of 5% is appropriate for IMRT verification. Greater discrepancies should lead to a review of the dosimetric procedure, including visual inspection of treatment segments and energy fluence.

  16. Uncertainty of Calculated Risk Estimates for Secondary Malignancies After Radiotherapy

    SciTech Connect

    Kry, Stephen F. . E-mail: sfkry@mdanderson.org; Followill, David; White, R. Allen; Stovall, Marilyn; Kuban, Deborah A.; Salehpour, Mohammad

    2007-07-15

    Purpose: The significance of risk estimates for fatal secondary malignancies caused by out-of-field radiation exposure remains unresolved because the uncertainty in calculated risk estimates has not been established. This work examines the uncertainty in absolute risk estimates and in the ratio of risk estimates between different treatment modalities. Methods and Materials: Clinically reasonable out-of-field doses and calculated risk estimates were taken from the literature for several prostate treatment modalities, including intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT), and were recalculated using the most recent risk model. The uncertainties in this risk model and uncertainties in the linearity of the dose-response model were considered in generating 90% confidence intervals for the uncertainty in the absolute risk estimates and in the ratio of the risk estimates. Results: The absolute risk estimates of fatal secondary malignancy were associated with very large uncertainties, which precluded distinctions between the risks associated with the different treatment modalities considered. However, a much smaller confidence interval exists for the ratio of risk estimates, and this ratio between different treatment modalities may be statistically significant when there is an effective dose equivalent difference of at least 50%. Such a difference may exist between clinically reasonable treatment options, including 6-MV IMRT versus 18-MV IMRT for prostate therapy. Conclusion: The ratio of the risk between different treatment modalities may be significantly different. Consequently risk models and associated risk estimates may be useful and meaningful for evaluating different treatment options. The calculated risk of secondary malignancy should be considered in the selection of an optimal treatment plan.

  17. The quantitative estimation of IT-related risk probabilities.

    PubMed

    Herrmann, Andrea

    2013-08-01

    How well can people estimate IT-related risk? Although estimating risk is a fundamental activity in software management and risk is the basis for many decisions, little is known about how well IT-related risk can be estimated at all. Therefore, we executed a risk estimation experiment with 36 participants. They estimated the probabilities of IT-related risks and we investigated the effect of the following factors on the quality of the risk estimation: the estimator's age, work experience in computing, (self-reported) safety awareness and previous experience with this risk, the absolute value of the risk's probability, and the effect of knowing the estimates of the other participants (see: Delphi method). Our main findings are: risk probabilities are difficult to estimate. Younger and inexperienced estimators were not significantly worse than older and more experienced estimators, but the older and more experienced subjects better used the knowledge gained by knowing the other estimators' results. Persons with higher safety awareness tend to overestimate risk probabilities, but can better estimate ordinal ranks of risk probabilities. Previous own experience with a risk leads to an overestimation of its probability (unlike in other fields like medicine or disasters, where experience with a disease leads to more realistic probability estimates and nonexperience to an underestimation).

  18. Comparative assessment of absolute cardiovascular disease risk characterization from non-laboratory-based risk assessment in South African populations

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background All rigorous primary cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention guidelines recommend absolute CVD risk scores to identify high- and low-risk patients, but laboratory testing can be impractical in low- and middle-income countries. The purpose of this study was to compare the ranking performance of a simple, non-laboratory-based risk score to laboratory-based scores in various South African populations. Methods We calculated and compared 10-year CVD (or coronary heart disease (CHD)) risk for 14,772 adults from thirteen cross-sectional South African populations (data collected from 1987 to 2009). Risk characterization performance for the non-laboratory-based score was assessed by comparing rankings of risk with six laboratory-based scores (three versions of Framingham risk, SCORE for high- and low-risk countries, and CUORE) using Spearman rank correlation and percent of population equivalently characterized as ‘high’ or ‘low’ risk. Total 10-year non-laboratory-based risk of CVD death was also calculated for a representative cross-section from the 1998 South African Demographic Health Survey (DHS, n = 9,379) to estimate the national burden of CVD mortality risk. Results Spearman correlation coefficients for the non-laboratory-based score with the laboratory-based scores ranged from 0.88 to 0.986. Using conventional thresholds for CVD risk (10% to 20% 10-year CVD risk), 90% to 92% of men and 94% to 97% of women were equivalently characterized as ‘high’ or ‘low’ risk using the non-laboratory-based and Framingham (2008) CVD risk score. These results were robust across the six risk scores evaluated and the thirteen cross-sectional datasets, with few exceptions (lower agreement between the non-laboratory-based and Framingham (1991) CHD risk scores). Approximately 18% of adults in the DHS population were characterized as ‘high CVD risk’ (10-year CVD death risk >20%) using the non-laboratory-based score. Conclusions We found a high level of

  19. A method to estimate the absolute ultrasonic nonlinearity parameter from relative measurements.

    PubMed

    Kim, Jongbeom; Song, Dong-Gi; Jhang, Kyung-Young

    2017-02-17

    The ultrasonic nonlinearity parameter, β, is determined from the displacement amplitude of the second-order harmonic frequency component generated during the propagation of ultrasonic waves through a material. This parameter is generally referred to as the absolute parameter. Meanwhile, it is difficult to measure the small displacement amplitude of the second-order harmonic component; therefore, most studies measure the relative parameter determined from the detected signal amplitude. However, for quantitative assessment of material degradation, the absolute parameter is still required. This study proposes a method to estimate the absolute parameter for damaged material by measuring the relative parameter. This method is based on the fact that the fractional ratio of the relative parameters between different materials is identical to that of the absolute parameters after compensation for material dependent differences such as the wavenumber and detection-sensitivity. In order to experimentally verify the method, the relative parameters of heat-treated Al6061-T6 alloy specimens with different aging times were measured to compare with absolute parameters directly measured by piezo-electric detection. The results show that the fluctuations of both parameters with respect to aging time were very similar to each other, and that the absolute parameters estimated by the proposed method were in good agreement with those measured directly.

  20. Quantifying Cancer Absolute Risk and Cancer Mortality in the Presence of Competing Events after a Myotonic Dystrophy Diagnosis

    PubMed Central

    Gadalla, Shahinaz M.; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.; Kristinsson, Sigurdur Y.; Björkholm, Magnus; Hilbert, James E.; Moxley, Richard T.; Landgren, Ola; Greene, Mark H.

    2013-01-01

    Recent studies show that patients with myotonic dystrophy (DM) have an increased risk of specific malignancies, but estimates of absolute cancer risk accounting for competing events are lacking. Using the Swedish Patient Registry, we identified 1,081 patients with an inpatient and/or outpatient diagnosis of DM between 1987 and 2007. Date and cause of death and date of cancer diagnosis were extracted from the Swedish Cause of Death and Cancer Registries. We calculated non-parametric estimates of absolute cancer risk and cancer mortality accounting for the high non-cancer competing mortality associated with DM. Absolute cancer risk after DM diagnosis was 1.6% (95% CI=0.4-4%), 5% (95% CI=3-9%) and 9% (95% CI=6-13%) at ages 40, 50 and 60 years, respectively. Females had a higher absolute risk of all cancers combined than males: 9% (95% CI=4-14), and 13% (95% CI=9-20) vs. 2% (95%CI= 0.7-6) and 4% (95%CI=2-8) by ages 50 and 60 years, respectively) and developed cancer at younger ages (median age =51 years, range=22-74 vs. 57, range=43-84, respectively, p=0.02). Cancer deaths accounted for 10% of all deaths, with an absolute cancer mortality risk of 2% (95%CI=1-4.5%), 4% (95%CI=2-6%), and 6% (95%CI=4-9%) by ages 50, 60, and 70 years, respectively. No gender difference in cancer-specific mortality was observed (p=0.6). In conclusion, cancer significantly contributes to morbidity and mortality in DM patients, even after accounting for high competing DM mortality from non-neoplastic causes. It is important to apply population-appropriate, validated cancer screening strategies in DM patients. PMID:24236163

  1. Estimating Terrorism Risk

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2005-01-01

    preparedness by addressing unique planning, equipment, training, and exercise needs of large urban areas (DHS, 2004). Al- though there appears to be agreement ...reasonable minimum standards for community preparedness. Until these questions are answered, allocating home- land security resources based on risk is the...and threats are correlated with population density. There are practical benefits for using simple risk indicators such as those based upon population

  2. Global-Scale Location and Distance Estimates: Common Representations and Strategies in Absolute and Relative Judgments

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Friedman, Alinda; Montello, Daniel R.

    2006-01-01

    The authors examined whether absolute and relative judgments about global-scale locations and distances were generated from common representations. At the end of a 10-week class on the regional geography of the United States, participants estimated the latitudes of 16 North American cities and all possible pairwise distances between them. Although…

  3. Leak rate estimation of a resistive plate chamber gap by monitoring absolute pressure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mondal, S.; Datar, V. M.; Kalmani, S. D.; Majumder, G.; Mondal, N. K.; Satyanarayana, B.

    2016-11-01

    The differential pressure of a conventional manometer is highly dependent on the atmospheric pressure. The measurements with a manometer for an extended time period show a large variation due to solar atmospheric tides. However, the measurements of absolute pressure, both outside and inside of a resistive plate chamber (RPC), are independent of each other. By monitoring the absolute pressures, both outside and inside of a RPC, along with the temperature, its leakage rate can be estimated. During the test period, the supporting button spacers inside a RPC may get detached due to some manufacturing defect. This effect can be detected clearly by observing the sudden fall of pressure inside the chamber.

  4. [Medical insurance estimation of risks].

    PubMed

    Dunér, H

    1975-11-01

    The purpose of insurance medicine is to make a prognostic estimate of medical risk-factors in persons who apply for life, health, or accident insurance. Established risk-groups with a calculated average mortality and morbidity form the basis for premium rates and insurance terms. In most cases the applicant is accepted for insurance after a self-assessment of his health. Only around one per cent of the applications are refused, but there are cases in which the premium is raised, temporarily or permanently. It is often a matter of rough estimate, since the knowlege of the long-term prognosis for many diseases is incomplete. The insurance companies' rules for estimate of risk are revised at intervals of three or four years. The estimate of risk as regards life insurance has been gradually liberalised, while the medical conditions for health insurance have become stricter owing to an increase in the claims rate.

  5. Absolute magnitude estimation and relative judgement approaches to subjective workload assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vidulich, Michael A.; Tsang, Pamela S.

    1987-01-01

    Two rating scale techniques employing an absolute magnitude estimation method, were compared to a relative judgment method for assessing subjective workload. One of the absolute estimation techniques used was an unidimensional overall workload scale and the other was the multidimensional NASA-Task Load Index technique. Thomas Saaty's Analytic Hierarchy Process was the unidimensional relative judgment method used. These techniques were used to assess the subjective workload of various single- and dual-tracking conditions. The validity of the techniques was defined as their ability to detect the same phenomena observed in the tracking performance. Reliability was assessed by calculating test-retest correlations. Within the context of the experiment, the Saaty Analytic Hierarchy Process was found to be superior in validity and reliability. These findings suggest that the relative judgment method would be an effective addition to the currently available subjective workload assessment techniques.

  6. Estimation of the absolute position of mobile systems by an optoelectronic processor

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Feng, Liqiang; Fainman, Yeshaiahu; Koren, Yoram

    1992-01-01

    A method that determine the absolute position of a mobile system with a hybrid optoelectronic processor has been developed. Position estimates are based on an analysis of circular landmarks that are detected by a TV camera attached to the mobile system. The difference between the known shape of the landmark and its image provides the information needed to determine the absolute position of the mobile system. For robust operation, the parameters of the landmark image are extracted at high speeds using an optical processor that performs an optical Hough transform. The coordinates of the mobile system are computed from these parameters in a digital co-processor using fast algorithms. Different sources of position estimation errors have also been analyzed, and consequent algorithms to improve the navigation performance of the mobile system have been developed and evaluated by both computer simulation and experiments.

  7. Absolute probability estimates of lethal vessel strikes to North Atlantic right whales in Roseway Basin, Scotian Shelf.

    PubMed

    van der Hoop, Julie M; Vanderlaan, Angelia S M; Taggart, Christopher T

    2012-10-01

    Vessel strikes are the primary source of known mortality for the endangered North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis). Multi-institutional efforts to reduce mortality associated with vessel strikes include vessel-routing amendments such as the International Maritime Organization voluntary "area to be avoided" (ATBA) in the Roseway Basin right whale feeding habitat on the southwestern Scotian Shelf. Though relative probabilities of lethal vessel strikes have been estimated and published, absolute probabilities remain unknown. We used a modeling approach to determine the regional effect of the ATBA, by estimating reductions in the expected number of lethal vessel strikes. This analysis differs from others in that it explicitly includes a spatiotemporal analysis of real-time transits of vessels through a population of simulated, swimming right whales. Combining automatic identification system (AIS) vessel navigation data and an observationally based whale movement model allowed us to determine the spatial and temporal intersection of vessels and whales, from which various probability estimates of lethal vessel strikes are derived. We estimate one lethal vessel strike every 0.775-2.07 years prior to ATBA implementation, consistent with and more constrained than previous estimates of every 2-16 years. Following implementation, a lethal vessel strike is expected every 41 years. When whale abundance is held constant across years, we estimate that voluntary vessel compliance with the ATBA results in an 82% reduction in the per capita rate of lethal strikes; very similar to a previously published estimate of 82% reduction in the relative risk of a lethal vessel strike. The models we developed can inform decision-making and policy design, based on their ability to provide absolute, population-corrected, time-varying estimates of lethal vessel strikes, and they are easily transported to other regions and situations.

  8. Risk estimation using probability machines

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Logistic regression has been the de facto, and often the only, model used in the description and analysis of relationships between a binary outcome and observed features. It is widely used to obtain the conditional probabilities of the outcome given predictors, as well as predictor effect size estimates using conditional odds ratios. Results We show how statistical learning machines for binary outcomes, provably consistent for the nonparametric regression problem, can be used to provide both consistent conditional probability estimation and conditional effect size estimates. Effect size estimates from learning machines leverage our understanding of counterfactual arguments central to the interpretation of such estimates. We show that, if the data generating model is logistic, we can recover accurate probability predictions and effect size estimates with nearly the same efficiency as a correct logistic model, both for main effects and interactions. We also propose a method using learning machines to scan for possible interaction effects quickly and efficiently. Simulations using random forest probability machines are presented. Conclusions The models we propose make no assumptions about the data structure, and capture the patterns in the data by just specifying the predictors involved and not any particular model structure. So they do not run the same risks of model mis-specification and the resultant estimation biases as a logistic model. This methodology, which we call a “risk machine”, will share properties from the statistical machine that it is derived from. PMID:24581306

  9. Predicting Absolute Risk of Type 2 Diabetes Using Age and Waist Circumference Values in an Aboriginal Australian Community

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Objectives To predict in an Australian Aboriginal community, the 10-year absolute risk of type 2 diabetes associated with waist circumference and age on baseline examination. Method A sample of 803 diabetes-free adults (82.3% of the age-eligible population) from baseline data of participants collected from 1992 to 1998 were followed-up for up to 20 years till 2012. The Cox-proportional hazard model was used to estimate the effects of waist circumference and other risk factors, including age, smoking and alcohol consumption status, of males and females on prediction of type 2 diabetes, identified through subsequent hospitalisation data during the follow-up period. The Weibull regression model was used to calculate the absolute risk estimates of type 2 diabetes with waist circumference and age as predictors. Results Of 803 participants, 110 were recorded as having developed type 2 diabetes, in subsequent hospitalizations over a follow-up of 12633.4 person-years. Waist circumference was strongly associated with subsequent diagnosis of type 2 diabetes with P<0.0001 for both genders and remained statistically significant after adjusting for confounding factors. Hazard ratios of type 2 diabetes associated with 1 standard deviation increase in waist circumference were 1.7 (95%CI 1.3 to 2.2) for males and 2.1 (95%CI 1.7 to 2.6) for females. At 45 years of age with baseline waist circumference of 100 cm, a male had an absolute diabetic risk of 10.9%, while a female had a 14.3% risk of the disease. Conclusions The constructed model predicts the 10-year absolute diabetes risk in an Aboriginal Australian community. It is simple and easily understood and will help identify individuals at risk of diabetes in relation to waist circumference values. Our findings on the relationship between waist circumference and diabetes on gender will be useful for clinical consultation, public health education and establishing WC cut-off points for Aboriginal Australians. PMID:25876058

  10. Absolute magnitudes of asteroids and a revision of asteroid albedo estimates from WISE thermal observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pravec, Petr; Harris, Alan W.; Kušnirák, Peter; Galád, Adrián; Hornoch, Kamil

    2012-09-01

    We obtained estimates of the Johnson V absolute magnitudes (H) and slope parameters (G) for 583 main-belt and near-Earth asteroids observed at Ondřejov and Table Mountain Observatory from 1978 to 2011. Uncertainties of the absolute magnitudes in our sample are <0.21 mag, with a median value of 0.10 mag. We compared the H data with absolute magnitude values given in the MPCORB, Pisa AstDyS and JPL Horizons orbit catalogs. We found that while the catalog absolute magnitudes for large asteroids are relatively good on average, showing only little biases smaller than 0.1 mag, there is a systematic offset of the catalog values for smaller asteroids that becomes prominent in a range of H greater than ∼10 and is particularly big above H ∼ 12. The mean (Hcatalog - H) value is negative, i.e., the catalog H values are systematically too bright. This systematic negative offset of the catalog values reaches a maximum around H = 14 where the mean (Hcatalog - H) is -0.4 to -0.5. We found also smaller correlations of the offset of the catalog H values with taxonomic types and with lightcurve amplitude, up to ∼0.1 mag or less. We discuss a few possible observational causes for the observed correlations, but the reason for the large bias of the catalog absolute magnitudes peaking around H = 14 is unknown; we suspect that the problem lies in the magnitude estimates reported by asteroid surveys. With our photometric H and G data, we revised the preliminary WISE albedo estimates made by Masiero et al. (Masired, J.R. et al. [2011]. Astrophys. J. 741, 68-89) and Mainzer et al. (Mainzer, A. et al. [2011b]. Astrophys. J. 743, 156-172) for asteroids in our sample. We found that the mean geometric albedo of Tholen/Bus/DeMeo C/G/B/F/P/D types with sizes of 25-300 km is pV = 0.057 with the standard deviation (dispersion) of the sample of 0.013 and the mean albedo of S/A/L types with sizes 0.6-200 km is 0.197 with the standard deviation of the sample of 0.051. The standard errors of the

  11. Estimation of Absolute Protein Quantities of Unlabeled Samples by Selected Reaction Monitoring Mass Spectrometry*

    PubMed Central

    Ludwig, Christina; Claassen, Manfred; Schmidt, Alexander; Aebersold, Ruedi

    2012-01-01

    For many research questions in modern molecular and systems biology, information about absolute protein quantities is imperative. This information includes, for example, kinetic modeling of processes, protein turnover determinations, stoichiometric investigations of protein complexes, or quantitative comparisons of different proteins within one sample or across samples. To date, the vast majority of proteomic studies are limited to providing relative quantitative comparisons of protein levels between limited numbers of samples. Here we describe and demonstrate the utility of a targeting MS technique for the estimation of absolute protein abundance in unlabeled and nonfractionated cell lysates. The method is based on selected reaction monitoring (SRM) mass spectrometry and the “best flyer” hypothesis, which assumes that the specific MS signal intensity of the most intense tryptic peptides per protein is approximately constant throughout a whole proteome. SRM-targeted best flyer peptides were selected for each protein from the peptide precursor ion signal intensities from directed MS data. The most intense transitions per peptide were selected from full MS/MS scans of crude synthetic analogs. We used Monte Carlo cross-validation to systematically investigate the accuracy of the technique as a function of the number of measured best flyer peptides and the number of SRM transitions per peptide. We found that a linear model based on the two most intense transitions of the three best flying peptides per proteins (TopPep3/TopTra2) generated optimal results with a cross-correlated mean fold error of 1.8 and a squared Pearson coefficient R2 of 0.88. Applying the optimized model to lysates of the microbe Leptospira interrogans, we detected significant protein abundance changes of 39 target proteins upon antibiotic treatment, which correlate well with literature values. The described method is generally applicable and exploits the inherent performance advantages of SRM

  12. Greater absolute risk for all subtypes of breast cancer in the US than Malaysia.

    PubMed

    Horne, Hisani N; Beena Devi, C R; Sung, Hyuna; Tang, Tieng Swee; Rosenberg, Philip S; Hewitt, Stephen M; Sherman, Mark E; Anderson, William F; Yang, Xiaohong R

    2015-01-01

    Hormone receptor (HR) negative breast cancers are relatively more common in low-risk than high-risk countries and/or populations. However, the absolute variations between these different populations are not well established given the limited number of cancer registries with incidence rate data by breast cancer subtype. We, therefore, used two unique population-based resources with molecular data to compare incidence rates for the 'intrinsic' breast cancer subtypes between a low-risk Asian population in Malaysia and high-risk non-Hispanic white population in the National Cancer Institute's surveillance, epidemiology, and end results 18 registries database (SEER 18). The intrinsic breast cancer subtypes were recapitulated with the joint expression of the HRs (estrogen receptor and progesterone receptor) and human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 (HER2). Invasive breast cancer incidence rates overall were fivefold greater in SEER 18 than in Malaysia. The majority of breast cancers were HR-positive in SEER 18 and HR-negative in Malaysia. Notwithstanding the greater relative distribution for HR-negative cancers in Malaysia, there was a greater absolute risk for all subtypes in SEER 18; incidence rates were nearly 7-fold higher for HR-positive and 2-fold higher for HR-negative cancers in SEER 18. Despite the well-established relative breast cancer differences between low-risk and high-risk countries and/or populations, there was a greater absolute risk for HR-positive and HR-negative subtypes in the US than Malaysia. Additional analytical studies are sorely needed to determine the factors responsible for the elevated risk of all subtypes of breast cancer in high-risk countries like the United States.

  13. The Fremantle Primary Prevention Study: a multicentre randomised trial of absolute cardiovascular risk reduction

    PubMed Central

    Brett, Tom; Arnold-Reed, Diane; Phan, Cam; Cadden, Frances; Walker, William; Manea-Walley, Wendy; Mora, Noelene; Young, Julie; Bulsara, Max

    2011-01-01

    Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of global mortality. Risk factor management in clinical practice often relies on relative risk modification rather than the more appropriate absolute risk assessment. Aim To determine whether patients receiving more-frequently designated GP visits had increased benefit in terms of their absolute CVD risk assessment, as compared with patients in receipt of their usual GP care. Design and setting Prospective, open, pragmatic block randomised study in a 1:1 group allocation ratio in three Western Australian general practices. Method A convenience sample (n = 1200) of patients aged 40–80 years were randomised to 3-monthly GP visits (five in total for the intensive) or usual GP care (two in total for the opportunistic), with 12 months’ follow-up. The main outcome was absolute CVD risk scores based on the New Zealand Cardiovascular Risk Calculator. Others outcome measures were weight, height, waist circumference, blood pressure, and fasting blood lipids and glucose. Results There were 600 patients per group at baseline. At 12 months’ analysis there were 543 in the intensive group and 569 in the opportunistic group. Mean (standard deviation [SD]) absolute CVD risk reduced significantly between baseline and 12 months in the intensive group (6.28% [5.11] to 6.10% [4.94]) but not in the opportunistic group (6.27% [5.10] to 6.24% [5.38]). There was a significant reduction between baseline and 12 months in mean (SD) total cholesterol (5.28 mmol/l [0.94] to 5.08 mmol/l [0.96]); low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (3.08 mmol/l [0.87] to 2.95 mmol/l [0.89]); triglyceride (1.45 mmol/l [0.86] to 1.36 mmol/l [0.84]); and in mean (SD) waist circumference in men (98.74 cm [10.70] to 97.13 cm [10.20]) and females (90.64 cm [14.62] to 88.96 cm [14.00]) in the intensive group. Conclusion A targeted approach using absolute risk calculators can be used in primary care to modify global CVD risk assessment. PMID:22520669

  14. Realized volatility and absolute return volatility: a comparison indicating market risk.

    PubMed

    Zheng, Zeyu; Qiao, Zhi; Takaishi, Tetsuya; Stanley, H Eugene; Li, Baowen

    2014-01-01

    Measuring volatility in financial markets is a primary challenge in the theory and practice of risk management and is essential when developing investment strategies. Although the vast literature on the topic describes many different models, two nonparametric measurements have emerged and received wide use over the past decade: realized volatility and absolute return volatility. The former is strongly favored in the financial sector and the latter by econophysicists. We examine the memory and clustering features of these two methods and find that both enable strong predictions. We compare the two in detail and find that although realized volatility has a better short-term effect that allows predictions of near-future market behavior, absolute return volatility is easier to calculate and, as a risk indicator, has approximately the same sensitivity as realized volatility. Our detailed empirical analysis yields valuable guidelines for both researchers and market participants because it provides a significantly clearer comparison of the strengths and weaknesses of the two methods.

  15. Absolute hydraulic conductivity estimates from aquifer pumping and tracer tests in a stratified aquifer

    SciTech Connect

    Thorbjarnarson, K.W.; Huntley, D.; McCarty, J.J.

    1998-01-01

    Independent estimates of absolute hydraulic conductivity were obtained by a standard aquifer pumping test and a forced-gradient tracer test in a highly heterogeneous aquifer. An aquifer hydraulic test was conducted to evaluate the average hydraulic conductivity (K), and to establish steady-state flow for the tracer test. An average K of 48 m/day was interpreted from the draw-down data in a fully screened well. Type-curve matching and simulation with MODFLOW of the hydraulic response in partially screened wells indicates K of 10 to 15 m/day for the upper section and 71 to 73 m/day for the deeper section. Iodide and fluorescent dye tracers were injected at low rates in wells located approximately 8 m upgradient of the production well. Tracer breakthrough was monitored in the production well and at ten depth intervals within the fully screened monitoring well. Interpretation of tracer response in the production well reveals tracer transport is limited to a 3.9 m thick section of the 20 m thick aquifer, with a hydraulic conductivity of 248 m/day. However, the depth distribution of these permeable strata cannot be determined from the production well tracer response. When sampled at 1.5 m depth intervals in the monitoring well, breakthrough was observed in only three intervals along the entire 18.2 m screened well. K estimates from tracer travel time within discrete high-permeability strata range from 31 to 317 m/day. Inclusion of permeameter K estimates for the lower permeability aquifer sands result in a range in relative K of 0.01 to 1.0. This field site has the highest absolute K estimate for a discrete stratum and the widest range in relative hydraulic conductivity among research field sites with K estimates for discrete strata. Within such a highly stratified aquifer, the use of an average K from an aquifer pumping test to predict solute transport results in great underestimation of transport distances for a given time period.

  16. Absolute abundance of southern bluefin tuna estimated by close-kin mark-recapture

    PubMed Central

    Bravington, Mark V.; Grewe, Peter M.; Davies, Campbell R.

    2016-01-01

    Southern bluefin tuna is a highly valuable, severely depleted species, whose abundance and productivity have been difficult to assess with conventional fishery data. Here we use large-scale genotyping to look for parent–offspring pairs among 14,000 tissue samples of juvenile and adult tuna collected from the fisheries, finding 45 pairs in total. Using a modified mark-recapture framework where ‘recaptures' are kin rather than individuals, we can estimate adult abundance and other demographic parameters such as survival, without needing to use contentious fishery catch or effort data. Our abundance estimates are substantially higher and more precise than previously thought, indicating a somewhat less-depleted and more productive stock. More broadly, this technique of ‘close-kin mark-recapture' has widespread utility in fisheries and wildlife conservation. It estimates a key parameter for management—the absolute abundance of adults—while avoiding the expense of independent surveys or tag-release programmes, and the interpretational problems of fishery catch rates. PMID:27841264

  17. One idea of portfolio risk control for absolute return strategy risk adjustments by signals from correlation behavior

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nishiyama, N.

    2001-12-01

    Absolute return strategy provided from fund of funds (FOFs) investment schemes is the focus in Japanese Financial Community. FOFs investment mainly consists of hedge fund investment and it has two major characteristics which are low correlation against benchmark index and little impact from various external changes in the environment given maximizing return. According to the historical track record of survival hedge funds in this business world, they maintain a stable high return and low risk. However, one must keep in mind that low risk would not be equal to risk free. The failure of Long-term capital management (LTCM) that took place in the summer of 1998 was a symbolized phenomenon. The summer of 1998 exhibited a certain limitation of traditional value at risk (VaR) and some possibility that traditional VaR could be ineffectual to the nonlinear type of fluctuation in the market. In this paper, I try to bring self-organized criticality (SOC) into portfolio risk control. SOC would be well known as a model of decay in the natural world. I analyzed nonlinear type of fluctuation in the market as SOC and applied SOC to capture complicated market movement using threshold point of SOC and risk adjustments by scenario correlation as implicit signals. Threshold becomes the control parameter of risk exposure to set downside floor and forecast extreme nonlinear type of fluctuation under a certain probability. Simulation results would show synergy effect of portfolio risk control between SOC and absolute return strategy.

  18. Absolute lymphocyte count and risk of short-term infection in patients with immune thrombocytopenia.

    PubMed

    Hu, Ming-Hung; Yu, Yuan-Bin; Huang, Yu-Chung; Gau, Jyh-Pyng; Hsiao, Liang-Tsai; Liu, Jin-Hwang; Chen, Ming-Huang; Chiou, Tzeon-Jye; Chen, Po-Min; Tzeng, Cheng-Hwai; Liu, Chun-Yu

    2014-06-01

    Patients with immune thrombocytopenia (ITP) may be at increased risk of infection because of the steroids and other immunosuppressive agents used in its treatment. This study aimed to identify events that are associated with infection within 6 months of diagnosis and the impact that infection has on survival. We retrospectively evaluated 239 patients (107 men, 132 women; median age 61 years) diagnosed between January 1997 and August 2011. Every patient received steroid treatment according to the platelet count and the extent of bleeding. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify risk factors associated with the development of infection within 6 months of ITP being diagnosed. Sixty-two patients (25.9 %) developed an infection within 6 months of diagnosis. Multivariate analysis revealed that a lower absolute lymphocyte count (ALC) at diagnosis (<1 × 10(9)/l) was an independent risk factor for infection (P = 0.039; 95 % confidence interval, 1.033-3.599; odds ratio, 1.928). The time to infection event is significant shorter in those of low ALC, compared with those of higher ALC (P = 0.032). Furthermore, the 1-year mortality rate after ITP diagnosis was significantly higher in those patients who developed an infection (P = 0.001). ITP patients with a low absolute lymphocyte count at diagnosis have an increased risk of infection, and those who develop infections have lower 1-year survival.

  19. Integrated Navigation System Design for Micro Planetary Rovers: Comparison of Absolute Heading Estimation Algorithms and Nonlinear Filtering

    PubMed Central

    Ilyas, Muhammad; Hong, Beomjin; Cho, Kuk; Baeg, Seung-Ho; Park, Sangdeok

    2016-01-01

    This paper provides algorithms to fuse relative and absolute microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) navigation sensors, suitable for micro planetary rovers, to provide a more accurate estimation of navigation information, specifically, attitude and position. Planetary rovers have extremely slow speed (~1 cm/s) and lack conventional navigation sensors/systems, hence the general methods of terrestrial navigation may not be applicable to these applications. While relative attitude and position can be tracked in a way similar to those for ground robots, absolute navigation information is hard to achieve on a remote celestial body, like Moon or Mars, in contrast to terrestrial applications. In this study, two absolute attitude estimation algorithms were developed and compared for accuracy and robustness. The estimated absolute attitude was fused with the relative attitude sensors in a framework of nonlinear filters. The nonlinear Extended Kalman filter (EKF) and Unscented Kalman filter (UKF) were compared in pursuit of better accuracy and reliability in this nonlinear estimation problem, using only on-board low cost MEMS sensors. Experimental results confirmed the viability of the proposed algorithms and the sensor suite, for low cost and low weight micro planetary rovers. It is demonstrated that integrating the relative and absolute navigation MEMS sensors reduces the navigation errors to the desired level. PMID:27223293

  20. Integrated Navigation System Design for Micro Planetary Rovers: Comparison of Absolute Heading Estimation Algorithms and Nonlinear Filtering.

    PubMed

    Ilyas, Muhammad; Hong, Beomjin; Cho, Kuk; Baeg, Seung-Ho; Park, Sangdeok

    2016-05-23

    This paper provides algorithms to fuse relative and absolute microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) navigation sensors, suitable for micro planetary rovers, to provide a more accurate estimation of navigation information, specifically, attitude and position. Planetary rovers have extremely slow speed (~1 cm/s) and lack conventional navigation sensors/systems, hence the general methods of terrestrial navigation may not be applicable to these applications. While relative attitude and position can be tracked in a way similar to those for ground robots, absolute navigation information is hard to achieve on a remote celestial body, like Moon or Mars, in contrast to terrestrial applications. In this study, two absolute attitude estimation algorithms were developed and compared for accuracy and robustness. The estimated absolute attitude was fused with the relative attitude sensors in a framework of nonlinear filters. The nonlinear Extended Kalman filter (EKF) and Unscented Kalman filter (UKF) were compared in pursuit of better accuracy and reliability in this nonlinear estimation problem, using only on-board low cost MEMS sensors. Experimental results confirmed the viability of the proposed algorithms and the sensor suite, for low cost and low weight micro planetary rovers. It is demonstrated that integrating the relative and absolute navigation MEMS sensors reduces the navigation errors to the desired level.

  1. Bridging the etiologic and prognostic outlooks in individualized assessment of absolute risk of an illness: application in lung cancer.

    PubMed

    Karp, Igor; Sylvestre, Marie-Pierre; Abrahamowicz, Michal; Leffondré, Karen; Siemiatycki, Jack

    2016-11-01

    Assessment of individual risk of illness is an important activity in preventive medicine. Development of risk-assessment models has heretofore relied predominantly on studies involving follow-up of cohort-type populations, while case-control studies have generally been considered unfit for this purpose. To present a method for individualized assessment of absolute risk of an illness (as illustrated by lung cancer) based on data from a 'non-nested' case-control study. We used data from a case-control study conducted in Montreal, Canada in 1996-2001. Individuals diagnosed with lung cancer (n = 920) and age- and sex-matched lung-cancer-free subjects (n = 1288) completed questionnaires documenting life-time cigarette-smoking history and occupational, medical, and family history. Unweighted and weighted logistic models were fitted. Model overfitting was assessed using bootstrap-based cross-validation and 'shrinkage.' The discriminating ability was assessed by the c-statistic, and the risk-stratifying performance was assessed by examination of the variability in risk estimates over hypothetical risk-profiles. In the logistic models, the logarithm of incidence-density of lung cancer was expressed as a function of age, sex, cigarette-smoking history, history of respiratory conditions and exposure to occupational carcinogens, and family history of lung cancer. The models entailed a minimal degree of overfitting ('shrinkage' factor: 0.97 for both unweighted and weighted models) and moderately high discriminating ability (c-statistic: 0.82 for the unweighted model and 0.66 for the weighted model). The method's risk-stratifying performance was quite high. The presented method allows for individualized assessment of risk of lung cancer and can be used for development of risk-assessment models for other illnesses.

  2. Estimation of absolute water surface temperature based on atmospherically corrected thermal infrared multispectral scanner digital data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Anderson, James E.

    1986-01-01

    Airborne remote sensing systems, as well as those on board Earth orbiting satellites, sample electromagnetic energy in discrete wavelength regions and convert the total energy sampled into data suitable for processing by digital computers. In general, however, the total amount of energy reaching a sensor system located at some distance from the target is composed not only of target related energy, but, in addition, contains a contribution originating from the atmosphere itself. Thus, some method must be devised for removing or at least minimizing the effects of the atmosphere. The LOWTRAN-6 Program was designed to estimate atmospheric transmittance and radiance for a given atmospheric path at moderate spectral resolution over an operational wavelength region from 0.25 to 28.5 microns. In order to compute the Thermal Infrared Multispectral Scanner (TIMS) digital values which were recorded in the absence of the atmosphere, the parameters derived from LOWTRAN-6 are used in a correction equation. The TIMS data were collected at 1:00 a.m. local time on November 21, 1983, over a recirculating cooling pond for a power plant in southeastern Mississippi. The TIMS data were analyzed before and after atmospheric corrections were applied using a band ratioing model to compute the absolute surface temperature of various points on the power plant cooling pond. The summarized results clearly demonstrate the desirability of applying atmospheric corrections.

  3. Attributable Risk Estimate of Severe Psoriasis on Major Cardiovascular Events

    PubMed Central

    Mehta, Nehal N.; Yu, YiDing; Pinnelas, Rebecca; Krishnamoorthy, Parasuram; Shin, Daniel B.; Troxel, Andrea B.; Gelfand, Joel M.

    2011-01-01

    Background Recent studies suggest that psoriasis, particularly if severe, may be a risk factor for major adverse cardiac events such as myocardial infarction, stroke, and mortality from cardiovascular disease. We compared the risk of major adverse cardiac events between patients with psoriasis and the general population and estimated the attributable risk of severe psoriasis. Methods We performed a cohort study in the General Practice Research Database. Severe psoriasis was defined as receiving a psoriasis diagnosis and systemic therapy (N=3,603). Up to 4 patients without psoriasis were selected from the same practices and start dates for each patient with psoriasis (N=14,330). Results Severe psoriasis was a risk factor for major adverse cardiac events (hazard ratio 1.53; 95% confidence interval 1.26, 1.85) after adjusting for age, gender, diabetes, hypertension, tobacco use and hyperlipidemia. After fully adjusted analysis, severe psoriasis conferred an additional 6.2% absolute risk of 10-year major adverse cardiac events. Conclusions Severe psoriasis confers an additional 6.2% absolute risk of 10-year rate of major adverse cardiac events compared to the general population. This potentially has important therapeutic implications for cardiovascular risk stratification and prevention in patients with severe psoriasis. Future prospective studies are needed to validate these findings. PMID:21787906

  4. Realized Volatility and Absolute Return Volatility: A Comparison Indicating Market Risk

    PubMed Central

    Takaishi, Tetsuya; Stanley, H. Eugene; Li, Baowen

    2014-01-01

    Measuring volatility in financial markets is a primary challenge in the theory and practice of risk management and is essential when developing investment strategies. Although the vast literature on the topic describes many different models, two nonparametric measurements have emerged and received wide use over the past decade: realized volatility and absolute return volatility. The former is strongly favored in the financial sector and the latter by econophysicists. We examine the memory and clustering features of these two methods and find that both enable strong predictions. We compare the two in detail and find that although realized volatility has a better short-term effect that allows predictions of near-future market behavior, absolute return volatility is easier to calculate and, as a risk indicator, has approximately the same sensitivity as realized volatility. Our detailed empirical analysis yields valuable guidelines for both researchers and market participants because it provides a significantly clearer comparison of the strengths and weaknesses of the two methods. PMID:25054439

  5. A Concurrent Mixed Methods Approach to Examining the Quantitative and Qualitative Meaningfulness of Absolute Magnitude Estimation Scales in Survey Research

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Koskey, Kristin L. K.; Stewart, Victoria C.

    2014-01-01

    This small "n" observational study used a concurrent mixed methods approach to address a void in the literature with regard to the qualitative meaningfulness of the data yielded by absolute magnitude estimation scaling (MES) used to rate subjective stimuli. We investigated whether respondents' scales progressed from less to more and…

  6. A method for determining weights for excess relative risk and excess absolute risk when applied in the calculation of lifetime risk of cancer from radiation exposure.

    PubMed

    Walsh, Linda; Schneider, Uwe

    2013-03-01

    Radiation-related risks of cancer can be transported from one population to another population at risk, for the purpose of calculating lifetime risks from radiation exposure. Transfer via excess relative risks (ERR) or excess absolute risks (EAR) or a mixture of both (i.e., from the life span study (LSS) of Japanese atomic bomb survivors) has been done in the past based on qualitative weighting. Consequently, the values of the weights applied and the method of application of the weights (i.e., as additive or geometric weighted means) have varied both between reports produced at different times by the same regulatory body and also between reports produced at similar times by different regulatory bodies. Since the gender and age patterns are often markedly different between EAR and ERR models, it is useful to have an evidence-based method for determining the relative goodness of fit of such models to the data. This paper identifies a method, using Akaike model weights, which could aid expert judgment and be applied to help to achieve consistency of approach and quantitative evidence-based results in future health risk assessments. The results of applying this method to recent LSS cancer incidence models are that the relative EAR weighting by cancer solid cancer site, on a scale of 0-1, is zero for breast and colon, 0.02 for all solid, 0.03 for lung, 0.08 for liver, 0.15 for thyroid, 0.18 for bladder and 0.93 for stomach. The EAR weighting for female breast cancer increases from 0 to 0.3, if a generally observed change in the trend between female age-specific breast cancer incidence rates and attained age, associated with menopause, is accounted for in the EAR model. Application of this method to preferred models from a study of multi-model inference from many models fitted to the LSS leukemia mortality data, results in an EAR weighting of 0. From these results it can be seen that lifetime risk transfer is most highly weighted by EAR only for stomach cancer. However

  7. The performance of different propensity score methods for estimating absolute effects of treatments on survival outcomes: A simulation study.

    PubMed

    Austin, Peter C; Schuster, Tibor

    2016-10-01

    Observational studies are increasingly being used to estimate the effect of treatments, interventions and exposures on outcomes that can occur over time. Historically, the hazard ratio, which is a relative measure of effect, has been reported. However, medical decision making is best informed when both relative and absolute measures of effect are reported. When outcomes are time-to-event in nature, the effect of treatment can also be quantified as the change in mean or median survival time due to treatment and the absolute reduction in the probability of the occurrence of an event within a specified duration of follow-up. We describe how three different propensity score methods, propensity score matching, stratification on the propensity score and inverse probability of treatment weighting using the propensity score, can be used to estimate absolute measures of treatment effect on survival outcomes. These methods are all based on estimating marginal survival functions under treatment and lack of treatment. We then conducted an extensive series of Monte Carlo simulations to compare the relative performance of these methods for estimating the absolute effects of treatment on survival outcomes. We found that stratification on the propensity score resulted in the greatest bias. Caliper matching on the propensity score and a method based on earlier work by Cole and Hernán tended to have the best performance for estimating absolute effects of treatment on survival outcomes. When the prevalence of treatment was less extreme, then inverse probability of treatment weighting-based methods tended to perform better than matching-based methods.

  8. Simultaneous estimation of lithospheric uplift rates and absolute sea level change in southwest Scandinavia from inversion of sea level data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nielsen, Lars; Hansen, Jens Morten; Hede, Mikkel Ulfeldt; Clemmensen, Lars B.; Pejrup, Morten; Noe-Nygaard, Nanna

    2014-11-01

    Relative sea level curves contain coupled information about absolute sea level change and vertical lithospheric movement. Such curves may be constructed based on, for example tide gauge data for the most recent times and different types of geological data for ancient times. Correct account for vertical lithospheric movement is essential for estimation of reliable values of absolute sea level change from relative sea level data and vise versa. For modern times, estimates of vertical lithospheric movement may be constrained by data (e.g. GPS-based measurements), which are independent from the relative sea level data. Similar independent data do not exist for ancient times. The purpose of this study is to test two simple inversion approaches for simultaneous estimation of lithospheric uplift rates and absolute sea level change rates for ancient times in areas where a dense coverage of relative sea level data exists and well-constrained average lithospheric movement values are known from, for example glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models. The inversion approaches are tested and used for simultaneous estimation of lithospheric uplift rates and absolute sea level change rates in southwest Scandinavia from modern relative sea level data series that cover the period from 1900 to 2000. In both approaches, a priori information is required to solve the inverse problem. A priori information about the average vertical lithospheric movement in the area of interest is critical for the quality of the obtained results. The two tested inversion schemes result in estimated absolute sea level rise of ˜1.2/1.3 mm yr-1 and vertical uplift rates ranging from approximately -1.4/-1.2 mm yr-1 (subsidence) to about 5.0/5.2 mm yr-1 if an a priori value of 1 mm yr-1 is used for the vertical lithospheric movement throughout the study area. In case the studied time interval is broken into two time intervals (before and after 1970), absolute sea level rise values of ˜0.8/1.2 mm yr-1 (before

  9. Model based period analysis of absolute and relative survival with R: data preparation, model fitting and derivation of survival estimates.

    PubMed

    Holleczek, Bernd; Brenner, Hermann

    2013-05-01

    Period analysis is increasingly employed in analyses of long-term survival of patients with chronic diseases such as cancer, as it derives more up-to-date survival estimates than traditional cohort based approaches. It has recently been extended with regression modelling using generalized linear models, which increases the precision of the survival estimates and enables to assess and account for effects of additional covariates. This paper provides a detailed presentation how model based period analysis may be used to derive population-based absolute and relative survival estimates using the freely available R language and statistical environment and already available R programs for period analysis. After an introduction of the underlying regression model and a description of the software tools we provide a step-by-step implementation of two regression models in R and illustrate how estimates and a test for trend over time in relative survival may be derived using data from a population based cancer registry.

  10. Submarine tower escape decompression sickness risk estimation.

    PubMed

    Loveman, G A M; Seddon, E M; Thacker, J C; Stansfield, M R; Jurd, K M

    2014-01-01

    Actions to enhance survival in a distressed submarine (DISSUB) scenario may be guided in part by knowledge of the likely risk of decompression sickness (DCS) should the crew attempt tower escape. A mathematical model for DCS risk estimation has been calibrated against DCS outcome data from 3,738 exposures of either men or goats to raised pressure. Body mass was used to scale DCS risk. The calibration data included more than 1,000 actual or simulated submarine escape exposures and no exposures with substantial staged decompression. Cases of pulmonary barotrauma were removed from the calibration data. The calibrated model was used to estimate the likelihood of DCS occurrence following submarine escape from the United Kingdom Royal Navy tower escape system. Where internal DISSUB pressure remains at - 0.1 MPa, escape from DISSUB depths < 200 meters is estimated to have DCS risk < 6%. Saturation at raised DISSUB pressure markedly increases risk, with > 60% DCS risk predicted for a 200-meter escape from saturation at 0.21 MPa. Using the calibrated model to predict DCS for direct ascent from saturation gives similar risk estimates to other published models.

  11. Sharing risk management: an implementation model for cardiovascular absolute risk assessment and management in Australian general practice

    PubMed Central

    Wan, Q; Harris, M F; Zwar, N; Vagholkar, S

    2008-01-01

    Purpose Despite considerable work in developing and validating cardiovascular absolute risk (CVAR) algorithms, there has been less work on models for their implementation in assessment and management. The aim of our study was to develop a model for a joint approach to its implementation based on an exploration of views of patients, general practitioners (GPs) and key informants (KIs). Methods We conducted six focus group (three with GPs and three with patients) and nine KI interviews in Sydney. Thematic analysis was used with comparison to highlight the similarities and differences in perspectives of participants. Results Conducting CVAR was seen as more acceptable for regular patients rather than new patients for whom GPs had to attract their interest and build rapport before doing so at the next visit. GPs’ interest and patients’ positive attitude in managing risk were important in implementing CVAR. Long consultations, good communication skills and having a trusting relationship helped overcome the barriers during the process. All the participants supported engaging patients to self-assess their risk before the consultation and sharing decision making with GPs during consultation. Involving practice staff to help with the patient self-assessment, follow-up and referral would be helpful in implementing CVAR assessment and management, but GPs, patients and practices may need more support for this to occur. Conclusions Multiple strategies are required to promote the better use of CVAR in the extremely busy working environment of Australian general practice. An implementation model has been developed based on our findings and the Chronic Care Model. Further research needs to investigate the effectiveness of the proposed model. PMID:18479283

  12. [Estimation of risk areas for hepatitis A].

    PubMed

    Braga, Ricardo Cerqueira Campos; Valencia, Luís Iván Ortiz; Medronho, Roberto de Andrade; Escosteguy, Claudia Caminha

    2008-08-01

    This study estimated hepatitis A risk areas in a region of Duque de Caxias, Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil. A cross-sectional study consisting of a hepatitis A serological survey and a household survey were conducted in 19 census tracts. Of these, 11 tracts were selected and 1,298 children from one to ten years of age were included in the study. Geostatistical techniques allowed modeling the spatial continuity of hepatitis A, non-use of filtered drinking water, time since installation of running water, and number of water taps per household and their spatial estimation through ordinary and indicator kriging. Adjusted models for the outcome and socioeconomic variables were isotropic; risk maps were constructed; cross-validation of the four models was satisfactory. Spatial estimation using the kriging method detected areas with increased risk of hepatitis A, independently of the urban administrative area in which the census tracts were located.

  13. Impact of microbial count distributions on human health risk estimates.

    PubMed

    Duarte, A S R; Nauta, M J

    2015-02-16

    Quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) is influenced by the choice of the probability distribution used to describe pathogen concentrations, as this may eventually have a large effect on the distribution of doses at exposure. When fitting a probability distribution to microbial enumeration data, several factors may have an impact on the accuracy of that fit. Analysis of the best statistical fits of different distributions alone does not provide a clear indication of the impact in terms of risk estimates. Thus, in this study we focus on the impact of fitting microbial distributions on risk estimates, at two different concentration scenarios and at a range of prevalence levels. By using five different parametric distributions, we investigate whether different characteristics of a good fit are crucial for an accurate risk estimate. Among the factors studied are the importance of accounting for the Poisson randomness in counts, the difference between treating "true" zeroes as such or as censored below a limit of quantification (LOQ) and the importance of making the correct assumption about the underlying distribution of concentrations. By running a simulation experiment with zero-inflated Poisson-lognormal distributed data and an existing QMRA model from retail to consumer level, it was possible to assess the difference between expected risk and the risk estimated with using a lognormal, a zero-inflated lognormal, a Poisson-gamma, a zero-inflated Poisson-gamma and a zero-inflated Poisson-lognormal distribution. We show that the impact of the choice of different probability distributions to describe concentrations at retail on risk estimates is dependent both on concentration and prevalence levels. We also show that the use of an LOQ should be done consciously, especially when zero-inflation is not used. In general, zero-inflation does not necessarily improve the absolute risk estimation, but performance of zero-inflated distributions in QMRA tends to be

  14. Predictors of indoor absolute humidity and estimated effects on influenza virus survival in grade schools

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Low absolute humidity (AH) has been associated with increased influenza virus survival and transmissibility and the onset of seasonal influenza outbreaks. Humidification of indoor environments may mitigate viral transmission and may be an important control strategy, particularly in schools where viral transmission is common and contributes to the spread of influenza in communities. However, the variability and predictors of AH in the indoor school environment and the feasibility of classroom humidification to levels that could decrease viral survival have not been studied. Methods Automated sensors were used to measure temperature, humidity and CO2 levels in two Minnesota grade schools without central humidification during two successive winters. Outdoor AH measurements were derived from the North American Land Data Assimilation System. Variability in indoor AH within classrooms, between classrooms in the same school, and between schools was assessed using concordance correlation coefficients (CCC). Predictors of indoor AH were examined using time-series Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity models. Classroom humidifiers were used when school was not in session to assess the feasibility of increasing indoor AH to levels associated with decreased influenza virus survival, as projected from previously published animal experiments. Results AH varied little within classrooms (CCC >0.90) but was more variable between classrooms in the same school (CCC 0.81 for School 1, 0.88 for School 2) and between schools (CCC 0.81). Indoor AH varied widely during the winter (range 2.60 to 10.34 millibars [mb]) and was strongly associated with changes in outdoor AH (p < 0.001). Changes in indoor AH on school weekdays were strongly associated with CO2 levels (p < 0.001). Over 4 hours, classroom humidifiers increased indoor AH by 4 mb, an increase sufficient to decrease projected 1-hour virus survival by an absolute value of 30% during winter months

  15. Spatial ascariasis risk estimation using socioeconomic variables.

    PubMed

    Valencia, Luis Iván Ortiz; Fortes, Bruno de Paula Menezes Drumond; Medronho, Roberto de Andrade

    2005-12-01

    Frequently, disease incidence is mapped as area data, for example, census tracts, districts or states. Spatial disease incidence can be highly heterogeneous inside these areas. Ascariasis is a highly prevalent disease, which is associated with poor sanitation and hygiene. Geostatistics was applied to model spatial distribution of Ascariasis risk and socioeconomic risk events in a poor community in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Data were gathered from a coproparasitologic and a domiciliary survey in 1550 children aged 1-9. Ascariasis risk and socioeconomic risk events were spatially estimated using Indicator Kriging. Cokriging models with a Linear Model of Coregionalization incorporating one socioeconomic variable were implemented. If a housewife attended school for less than four years, the non-use of a home water filter, a household density greater than one, and a household income lower than one Brazilian minimum wage increased the risk of Ascariasis. Cokriging improved spatial estimation of Ascariasis risk areas when compared to Indicator Kriging and detected more Ascariasis very-high risk areas than the GIS Overlay method.

  16. Easy Absolute Values? Absolutely

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Taylor, Sharon E.; Mittag, Kathleen Cage

    2015-01-01

    The authors teach a problem-solving course for preservice middle-grades education majors that includes concepts dealing with absolute-value computations, equations, and inequalities. Many of these students like mathematics and plan to teach it, so they are adept at symbolic manipulations. Getting them to think differently about a concept that they…

  17. Formal Estimation of Errors in Computed Absolute Interaction Energies of Protein-ligand Complexes

    PubMed Central

    Faver, John C.; Benson, Mark L.; He, Xiao; Roberts, Benjamin P.; Wang, Bing; Marshall, Michael S.; Kennedy, Matthew R.; Sherrill, C. David; Merz, Kenneth M.

    2011-01-01

    A largely unsolved problem in computational biochemistry is the accurate prediction of binding affinities of small ligands to protein receptors. We present a detailed analysis of the systematic and random errors present in computational methods through the use of error probability density functions, specifically for computed interaction energies between chemical fragments comprising a protein-ligand complex. An HIV-II protease crystal structure with a bound ligand (indinavir) was chosen as a model protein-ligand complex. The complex was decomposed into twenty-one (21) interacting fragment pairs, which were studied using a number of computational methods. The chemically accurate complete basis set coupled cluster theory (CCSD(T)/CBS) interaction energies were used as reference values to generate our error estimates. In our analysis we observed significant systematic and random errors in most methods, which was surprising especially for parameterized classical and semiempirical quantum mechanical calculations. After propagating these fragment-based error estimates over the entire protein-ligand complex, our total error estimates for many methods are large compared to the experimentally determined free energy of binding. Thus, we conclude that statistical error analysis is a necessary addition to any scoring function attempting to produce reliable binding affinity predictions. PMID:21666841

  18. Estimating Terrorist Risk with Possibility Theory

    SciTech Connect

    J.L. Darby

    2004-11-30

    This report summarizes techniques that use possibility theory to estimate the risk of terrorist acts. These techniques were developed under the sponsorship of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) as part of the National Infrastructure Simulation Analysis Center (NISAC) project. The techniques have been used to estimate the risk of various terrorist scenarios to support NISAC analyses during 2004. The techniques are based on the Logic Evolved Decision (LED) methodology developed over the past few years by Terry Bott and Steve Eisenhawer at LANL. [LED] The LED methodology involves the use of fuzzy sets, possibility theory, and approximate reasoning. LED captures the uncertainty due to vagueness and imprecision that is inherent in the fidelity of the information available for terrorist acts; probability theory cannot capture these uncertainties. This report does not address the philosophy supporting the development of nonprobabilistic approaches, and it does not discuss possibility theory in detail. The references provide a detailed discussion of these subjects. [Shafer] [Klir and Yuan] [Dubois and Prade] Suffice to say that these approaches were developed to address types of uncertainty that cannot be addressed by a probability measure. An earlier report discussed in detail the problems with using a probability measure to evaluate terrorist risk. [Darby Methodology]. Two related techniques are discussed in this report: (1) a numerical technique, and (2) a linguistic technique. The numerical technique uses traditional possibility theory applied to crisp sets, while the linguistic technique applies possibility theory to fuzzy sets. Both of these techniques as applied to terrorist risk for NISAC applications are implemented in software called PossibleRisk. The techniques implemented in PossibleRisk were developed specifically for use in estimating terrorist risk for the NISAC program. The LEDTools code can be used to perform the same linguistic evaluation as

  19. Almost efficient estimation of relative risk regression

    PubMed Central

    Fitzmaurice, Garrett M.; Lipsitz, Stuart R.; Arriaga, Alex; Sinha, Debajyoti; Greenberg, Caprice; Gawande, Atul A.

    2014-01-01

    Relative risks (RRs) are often considered the preferred measures of association in prospective studies, especially when the binary outcome of interest is common. In particular, many researchers regard RRs to be more intuitively interpretable than odds ratios. Although RR regression is a special case of generalized linear models, specifically with a log link function for the binomial (or Bernoulli) outcome, the resulting log-binomial regression does not respect the natural parameter constraints. Because log-binomial regression does not ensure that predicted probabilities are mapped to the [0,1] range, maximum likelihood (ML) estimation is often subject to numerical instability that leads to convergence problems. To circumvent these problems, a number of alternative approaches for estimating RR regression parameters have been proposed. One approach that has been widely studied is the use of Poisson regression estimating equations. The estimating equations for Poisson regression yield consistent, albeit inefficient, estimators of the RR regression parameters. We consider the relative efficiency of the Poisson regression estimator and develop an alternative, almost efficient estimator for the RR regression parameters. The proposed method uses near-optimal weights based on a Maclaurin series (Taylor series expanded around zero) approximation to the true Bernoulli or binomial weight function. This yields an almost efficient estimator while avoiding convergence problems. We examine the asymptotic relative efficiency of the proposed estimator for an increase in the number of terms in the series. Using simulations, we demonstrate the potential for convergence problems with standard ML estimation of the log-binomial regression model and illustrate how this is overcome using the proposed estimator. We apply the proposed estimator to a study of predictors of pre-operative use of beta blockers among patients undergoing colorectal surgery after diagnosis of colon cancer. PMID

  20. Male Breast Cancer Incidence and Mortality Risk in the Japanese Atomic Bomb Survivors – Differences in Excess Relative and Absolute Risk from Female Breast Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Little, Mark P.; McElvenny, Damien M.

    2016-01-01

    Background: There are well-known associations of ionizing radiation with female breast cancer, and emerging evidence also for male breast cancer. In the United Kingdom, female breast cancer following occupational radiation exposure is among that set of cancers eligible for state compensation and consideration is currently being given to an extension to include male breast cancer. Objectives: We compare radiation-associated excess relative and absolute risks of male and female breast cancers. Methods: Breast cancer incidence and mortality data in the Japanese atomic-bomb survivors were analyzed using relative and absolute risk models via Poisson regression. Results: We observed significant (p ≤ 0.01) dose-related excess risk for male breast cancer incidence and mortality. For incidence and mortality data, there are elevations by factors of approximately 15 and 5, respectively, of relative risk for male compared with female breast cancer incidence, the former borderline significant (p = 0.050). In contrast, for incidence and mortality data, there are elevations by factors of approximately 20 and 10, respectively, of female absolute risk compared with male, both statistically significant (p < 0.001). There are no indications of differences between the sexes in age/time-since-exposure/age-at-exposure modifications to the relative or absolute excess risk. The probability of causation of male breast cancer following radiation exposure exceeds by at least a factor of 5 that of many other malignancies. Conclusions: There is evidence of much higher radiation-associated relative risk for male than for female breast cancer, although absolute excess risks for males are much less than for females. However, the small number of male cases and deaths suggests a degree of caution in interpretation of this finding. Citation: Little MP, McElvenny DM. 2017. Male breast cancer incidence and mortality risk in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors – differences in excess relative and

  1. Estimated Autism Risk and Older Reproductive Age

    PubMed Central

    King, Marissa D.; Fountain, Christine; Dakhlallah, Diana

    2009-01-01

    Objectives. We sought to estimate the risk for autism associated with maternal and paternal age across successive birth cohorts. Methods. We linked birth records and autism diagnostic records from the California Department of Developmental Services for children born in California between 1992 and 2000 to calculate the risk associated with maternal and paternal age for each birth cohort as well as for the pooled data. Results. The categorical risks associated with maternal age over 40 years ranged from a high of 1.84 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.37, 2.47) to a low of 1.27 (95% CI = 0.95, 1.69). The risk associated with paternal age ranged from 1.29 (95% CI = 1.03, 1.6) to 1.71 (95% CI = 1.41, 2.08). Conclusions. Pooling data across multiple birth cohorts inflates the risk associated with paternal age. Analyses that do not suffer from problems produced by pooling across birth cohorts demonstrated that advanced maternal age, rather than paternal age, may pose greater risk. Future research examining parental age as a risk factor must be careful to avoid the paradoxes that can arise from pooling data, particularly during periods of social demographic change. PMID:19608957

  2. Risk Estimation Methodology for Launch Accidents.

    SciTech Connect

    Clayton, Daniel James; Lipinski, Ronald J.; Bechtel, Ryan D.

    2014-02-01

    As compact and light weight power sources with reliable, long lives, Radioisotope Power Systems (RPSs) have made space missions to explore the solar system possible. Due to the hazardous material that can be released during a launch accident, the potential health risk of an accident must be quantified, so that appropriate launch approval decisions can be made. One part of the risk estimation involves modeling the response of the RPS to potential accident environments. Due to the complexity of modeling the full RPS response deterministically on dynamic variables, the evaluation is performed in a stochastic manner with a Monte Carlo simulation. The potential consequences can be determined by modeling the transport of the hazardous material in the environment and in human biological pathways. The consequence analysis results are summed and weighted by appropriate likelihood values to give a collection of probabilistic results for the estimation of the potential health risk. This information is used to guide RPS designs, spacecraft designs, mission architecture, or launch procedures to potentially reduce the risk, as well as to inform decision makers of the potential health risks resulting from the use of RPSs for space missions.

  3. Estimating stellar atmospheric parameters, absolute magnitudes and elemental abundances from the LAMOST spectra with Kernel-based principal component analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiang, M.-S.; Liu, X.-W.; Shi, J.-R.; Yuan, H.-B.; Huang, Y.; Luo, A.-L.; Zhang, H.-W.; Zhao, Y.-H.; Zhang, J.-N.; Ren, J.-J.; Chen, B.-Q.; Wang, C.; Li, J.; Huo, Z.-Y.; Zhang, W.; Wang, J.-L.; Zhang, Y.; Hou, Y.-H.; Wang, Y.-F.

    2017-01-01

    Accurate determination of stellar atmospheric parameters and elemental abundances is crucial for Galactic archaeology via large-scale spectroscopic surveys. In this paper, we estimate stellar atmospheric parameters - effective temperature Teff, surface gravity log g and metallicity [Fe/H], absolute magnitudes MV and MKs, α-element to metal (and iron) abundance ratio [α/M] (and [α/Fe]), as well as carbon and nitrogen abundances [C/H] and [N/H] from the Large Sky Area Multi-Object Fibre Spectroscopic Telescope (LAMOST) spectra with a multivariate regression method based on kernel-based principal component analysis, using stars in common with other surveys (Hipparcos, Kepler, Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment) as training data sets. Both internal and external examinations indicate that given a spectral signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) better than 50, our method is capable of delivering stellar parameters with a precision of ˜100 K for Teff, ˜0.1 dex for log g, 0.3-0.4 mag for MV and MKs, 0.1 dex for [Fe/H], [C/H] and [N/H], and better than 0.05 dex for [α/M] ([α/Fe]). The results are satisfactory even for a spectral SNR of 20. The work presents first determinations of [C/H] and [N/H] abundances from a vast data set of LAMOST, and, to our knowledge, the first reported implementation of absolute magnitude estimation directly based on a vast data set of observed spectra. The derived stellar parameters for millions of stars from the LAMOST surveys will be publicly available in the form of value-added catalogues.

  4. Auditory risk estimates for youth target shooting

    PubMed Central

    Meinke, Deanna K.; Murphy, William J.; Finan, Donald S.; Lankford, James E.; Flamme, Gregory A.; Stewart, Michael; Soendergaard, Jacob; Jerome, Trevor W.

    2015-01-01

    Objective To characterize the impulse noise exposure and auditory risk for youth recreational firearm users engaged in outdoor target shooting events. The youth shooting positions are typically standing or sitting at a table, which places the firearm closer to the ground or reflective surface when compared to adult shooters. Design Acoustic characteristics were examined and the auditory risk estimates were evaluated using contemporary damage-risk criteria for unprotected adult listeners and the 120-dB peak limit suggested by the World Health Organization (1999) for children. Study sample Impulses were generated by 26 firearm/ammunition configurations representing rifles, shotguns, and pistols used by youth. Measurements were obtained relative to a youth shooter’s left ear. Results All firearms generated peak levels that exceeded the 120 dB peak limit suggested by the WHO for children. In general, shooting from the seated position over a tabletop increases the peak levels, LAeq8 and reduces the unprotected maximum permissible exposures (MPEs) for both rifles and pistols. Pistols pose the greatest auditory risk when fired over a tabletop. Conclusion Youth should utilize smaller caliber weapons, preferably from the standing position, and always wear hearing protection whenever engaging in shooting activities to reduce the risk for auditory damage. PMID:24564688

  5. Absolutely classical spin states

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bohnet-Waldraff, F.; Giraud, O.; Braun, D.

    2017-01-01

    We introduce the concept of "absolutely classical" spin states, in analogy to absolutely separable states of bipartite quantum systems. Absolutely classical states are states that remain classical (i.e., a convex sum of projectors on coherent states of a spin j ) under any unitary transformation applied to them. We investigate the maximal size of the ball of absolutely classical states centered on the maximally mixed state and derive a lower bound for its radius as a function of the total spin quantum number. We also obtain a numerical estimate of this maximal radius and compare it to the case of absolutely separable states.

  6. Relating space radiation environments to risk estimates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Curtis, Stanley B.

    1993-01-01

    A number of considerations must go into the process of determining the risk of deleterious effects of space radiation to travelers. Among them are (1) determination of the components of the radiation environment (particle species, fluxes and energy spectra) which will encounter, (2) determination of the effects of shielding provided by the spacecraft and the bodies of the travelers which modify the incident particle spectra and mix of particles, and (3) determination of relevant biological effects of the radiation in the organs of interest. The latter can then lead to an estimation of risk from a given space scenario. Clearly, the process spans many scientific disciplines from solar and cosmic ray physics to radiation transport theeory to the multistage problem of the induction by radiation of initial lesions in living material and their evolution via physical, chemical, and biological processes at the molecular, cellular, and tissue levels to produce the end point of importance.

  7. Assessing uncertainty in published risk estimates using ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Introduction: The National Research Council recommended quantitative evaluation of uncertainty in effect estimates for risk assessment. This analysis considers uncertainty across model forms and model parameterizations with hexavalent chromium [Cr(VI)] and lung cancer mortality as an example. The objective is to characterize model uncertainty by evaluating estimates across published epidemiologic studies of the same cohort.Methods: This analysis was based on 5 studies analyzing a cohort of 2,357 workers employed from 1950-74 in a chromate production plant in Maryland. Cox and Poisson models were the only model forms considered by study authors to assess the effect of Cr(VI) on lung cancer mortality. All models adjusted for smoking and included a 5-year exposure lag, however other latency periods and model covariates such as age and race were considered. Published effect estimates were standardized to the same units and normalized by their variances to produce a standardized metric to compare variability within and between model forms. A total of 5 similarly parameterized analyses were considered across model form, and 16 analyses with alternative parameterizations were considered within model form (10 Cox; 6 Poisson). Results: Across Cox and Poisson model forms, adjusted cumulative exposure coefficients (betas) for 5 similar analyses ranged from 2.47 to 4.33 (mean=2.97, σ2=0.63). Within the 10 Cox models, coefficients ranged from 2.53 to 4.42 (mean=3.29, σ2=0.

  8. Primary care use of FRAX: absolute fracture risk assessment in postmenopausal women and older men.

    PubMed

    Siris, Ethel S; Baim, Sanford; Nattiv, Aurelia

    2010-01-01

    Osteoporosis-related fractures (low-trauma or fragility fractures) cause substantial disability, health care costs, and mortality among postmenopausal women and older men. Epidemiologic studies indicate that at least half the population burden of osteoporosis-related fractures affects persons with osteopenia (low bone density), who comprise a larger segment of the population than those with osteoporosis. The public health burden of fractures will fail to decrease unless the subset of patients with low bone density who are at increased risk for fracture are identified and treated. Risk stratification for medically appropriate and cost-effective treatment is facilitated by the World Health Organization (WHO) FRAX algorithm, which uses clinical risk factors, bone mineral density, and country-specific fracture and mortality data to quantify a patient's 10-year probability of a hip or major osteoporotic fracture. Included risk factors comprise femoral neck bone mineral density, prior fractures, parental hip fracture history, age, gender, body mass index, ethnicity, smoking, alcohol use, glucocorticoid use, rheumatoid arthritis, and secondary osteoporosis. FRAX was developed by the WHO to be applicable to both postmenopausal women and men aged 40 to 90 years; the National Osteoporosis Foundation Clinician's Guide focuses on its utility in postmenopausal women and men aged >50 years. It is validated to be used in untreated patients only. The current National Osteoporosis Foundation Guide recommends treating patients with FRAX 10-year risk scores of > or = 3% for hip fracture or > or = 20% for major osteoporotic fracture, to reduce their fracture risk. Additional risk factors such as frequent falls, not represented in FRAX, warrant individual clinical judgment. FRAX has the potential to demystify fracture risk assessment in primary care for patients with low bone density, directing clinical fracture prevention strategies to those who can benefit most.

  9. IMPROVED RISK ESTIMATES FOR CARBON TETRACHLORIDE

    SciTech Connect

    Benson, Janet M.; Springer, David L.

    1999-12-31

    Carbon tetrachloride has been used extensively within the DOE nuclear weapons facilities. Rocky Flats was formerly the largest volume consumer of CCl4 in the United States using 5000 gallons in 1977 alone (Ripple, 1992). At the Hanford site, several hundred thousand gallons of CCl4 were discharged between 1955 and 1973 into underground cribs for storage. Levels of CCl4 in groundwater at highly contaminated sites at the Hanford facility have exceeded 8 the drinking water standard of 5 ppb by several orders of magnitude (Illman, 1993). High levels of CCl4 at these facilities represent a potential health hazard for workers conducting cleanup operations and for surrounding communities. The level of CCl4 cleanup required at these sites and associated costs are driven by current human health risk estimates, which assume that CCl4 is a genotoxic carcinogen. The overall purpose of these studies was to improve the scientific basis for assessing the health risk associated with human exposure to CCl4. Specific research objectives of this project were to: (1) compare the rates of CCl4 metabolism by rats, mice and hamsters in vivo and extrapolate those rates to man based on parallel studies on the metabolism of CCl4 by rat, mouse, hamster and human hepatic microsomes in vitro; (2) using hepatic microsome preparations, determine the role of specific cytochrome P450 isoforms in CCl4-mediated toxicity and the effects of repeated inhalation and ingestion of CCl4 on these isoforms; and (3) evaluate the toxicokinetics of inhaled CCl4 in rats, mice and hamsters. This information has been used to improve the physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for CCl4 originally developed by Paustenbach et al. (1988) and more recently revised by Thrall and Kenny (1996). Another major objective of the project was to provide scientific evidence that CCl4, like chloroform, is a hepatocarcinogen only when exposure results in cell damage, cell killing and regenerative proliferation. In

  10. Comparing paired vs non-paired statistical methods of analyses when making inferences about absolute risk reductions in propensity-score matched samples.

    PubMed

    Austin, Peter C

    2011-05-20

    Propensity-score matching allows one to reduce the effects of treatment-selection bias or confounding when estimating the effects of treatments when using observational data. Some authors have suggested that methods of inference appropriate for independent samples can be used for assessing the statistical significance of treatment effects when using propensity-score matching. Indeed, many authors in the applied medical literature use methods for independent samples when making inferences about treatment effects using propensity-score matched samples. Dichotomous outcomes are common in healthcare research. In this study, we used Monte Carlo simulations to examine the effect on inferences about risk differences (or absolute risk reductions) when statistical methods for independent samples are used compared with when statistical methods for paired samples are used in propensity-score matched samples. We found that compared with using methods for independent samples, the use of methods for paired samples resulted in: (i) empirical type I error rates that were closer to the advertised rate; (ii) empirical coverage rates of 95 per cent confidence intervals that were closer to the advertised rate; (iii) narrower 95 per cent confidence intervals; and (iv) estimated standard errors that more closely reflected the sampling variability of the estimated risk difference. Differences between the empirical and advertised performance of methods for independent samples were greater when the treatment-selection process was stronger compared with when treatment-selection process was weaker. We recommend using statistical methods for paired samples when using propensity-score matched samples for making inferences on the effect of treatment on the reduction in the probability of an event occurring.

  11. Prediction of absolute risk of fragility fracture at 10 years in a Spanish population: validation of the WHO FRAX ™ tool in Spain

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Age-related bone loss is asymptomatic, and the morbidity of osteoporosis is secondary to the fractures that occur. Common sites of fracture include the spine, hip, forearm and proximal humerus. Fractures at the hip incur the greatest morbidity and mortality and give rise to the highest direct costs for health services. Their incidence increases exponentially with age. Independently changes in population demography, the age - and sex- specific incidence of osteoporotic fractures appears to be increasing in developing and developed countries. This could mean more than double the expected burden of osteoporotic fractures in the next 50 years. Methods/Design To assess the predictive power of the WHO FRAX™ tool to identify the subjects with the highest absolute risk of fragility fracture at 10 years in a Spanish population, a predictive validation study of the tool will be carried out. For this purpose, the participants recruited by 1999 will be assessed. These were referred to scan-DXA Department from primary healthcare centres, non hospital and hospital consultations. Study population: Patients attended in the national health services integrated into a FRIDEX cohort with at least one Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) measurement and one extensive questionnaire related to fracture risk factors. Measurements: At baseline bone mineral density measurement using DXA, clinical fracture risk factors questionnaire, dietary calcium intake assessment, history of previous fractures, and related drugs. Follow up by telephone interview to know fragility fractures in the 10 years with verification in electronic medical records and also to know the number of falls in the last year. The absolute risk of fracture will be estimated using the FRAX™ tool from the official web site. Discussion Since more than 10 years ago numerous publications have recognised the importance of other risk factors for new osteoporotic fractures in addition to low BMD. The extension of a

  12. Estimation of health risks from radiation exposures

    SciTech Connect

    Randolph, M.L.

    1983-08-01

    An informal presentation is given of the cancer and genetic risks from exposures to ionizing radiations. The risks from plausible radiation exposures are shown to be comparable to other commonly encountered risks.

  13. Another look at the (im-)precision of individual risk estimates made using actuarial risk assessment instruments.

    PubMed

    Hart, Stephen D; Cooke, David J

    2013-01-01

    We investigated the precision of individual risk estimates made using actuarial risk assessment instruments (ARAIs) by discussing some major conceptual issues and then illustrating them by analyzing new data. We used a standard multivariate statistical procedure, logistic regression, to create a new ARAI based on data from a follow-up study of 90 adult male sex offenders. We indexed predictive precision at the group level using confidence intervals for group mean probability estimates, and at the individual level using prediction intervals for individual probability estimates. Consistent with past research, ARAI scores were moderately and significantly predictive of failure in the aggregate, but group probability estimates had substantial margins of error and individual probability estimates had very large margins of error. We conclude that, without major advances in our understanding of the causes of violence, ARAIs cannot be used to estimate the specific probability or absolute likelihood of future violence with any reasonable degree of precision or certainty. The implications for conducting violence risk assessments in forensic mental health are discussed.

  14. Relating space radiation environments to risk estimates

    SciTech Connect

    Curtis, S.B.

    1991-10-01

    This lecture will provide a bridge from the physical energy or LET spectra as might be calculated in an organ to the risk of carcinogenesis, a particular concern for extended missions to the moon or beyond to Mars. Topics covered will include (1) LET spectra expected from galactic cosmic rays, (2) probabilities that individual cell nuclei in the body will be hit by heavy galactic cosmic ray particles, (3) the conventional methods of calculating risks from a mixed environment of high and low LET radiation, (4) an alternate method which provides certain advantages using fluence-related risk coefficients (risk cross sections), and (5) directions for future research and development of these ideas.

  15. Estimation of the standardized risk difference and ratio in a competing risks framework: application to injection drug use and progression to AIDS after initiation of antiretroviral therapy.

    PubMed

    Cole, Stephen R; Lau, Bryan; Eron, Joseph J; Brookhart, M Alan; Kitahata, Mari M; Martin, Jeffrey N; Mathews, William C; Mugavero, Michael J

    2015-02-15

    There are few published examples of absolute risk estimated from epidemiologic data subject to censoring and competing risks with adjustment for multiple confounders. We present an example estimating the effect of injection drug use on 6-year risk of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) after initiation of combination antiretroviral therapy between 1998 and 2012 in an 8-site US cohort study with death before AIDS as a competing risk. We estimate the risk standardized to the total study sample by combining inverse probability weights with the cumulative incidence function; estimates of precision are obtained by bootstrap. In 7,182 patients (83% male, 33% African American, median age of 38 years), we observed 6-year standardized AIDS risks of 16.75% among 1,143 injection drug users and 12.08% among 6,039 nonusers, yielding a standardized risk difference of 4.68 (95% confidence interval: 1.27, 8.08) and a standardized risk ratio of 1.39 (95% confidence interval: 1.12, 1.72). Results may be sensitive to the assumptions of exposure-version irrelevance, no measurement bias, and no unmeasured confounding. These limitations suggest that results be replicated with refined measurements of injection drug use. Nevertheless, estimating the standardized risk difference and ratio is straightforward, and injection drug use appears to increase the risk of AIDS.

  16. Optimal Allocation for the Estimation of Attributable Risk,

    DTIC Science & Technology

    control studies . Various optimal strategies are examined using alternative exposure-specific disease rates. Odd Ratio, Relative Risk and Attributable Risk....This paper derives an expression for the optimum sampling allocation under the minimum variance criterion of the estimated attributable risk for case

  17. Non-parametric estimation of spatial variation in relative risk.

    PubMed

    Kelsall, J E; Diggle, P J

    We consider the problem of estimating the spatial variation in relative risks of two diseases, say, over a geographical region. Using an underlying Poisson point process model, we approach the problem as one of density ratio estimation implemented with a non-parametric kernel smoothing method. In order to assess the significance of any local peaks or troughs in the estimated risk surface, we introduce pointwise tolerance contours which can enhance a greyscale image plot of the estimate. We also propose a Monte Carlo test of the null hypothesis of constant risk over the whole region, to avoid possible over-interpretation of the estimated risk surface. We illustrate the capabilities of the methodology with two epidemiological examples.

  18. Parametric Estimation in a Recurrent Competing Risks Model.

    PubMed

    Taylor, Laura L; Peña, Edsel A

    2013-01-01

    A resource-efficient approach to making inferences about the distributional properties of the failure times in a competing risks setting is presented. Efficiency is gained by observing recurrences of the competing risks over a random monitoring period. The resulting model is called the recurrent competing risks model (RCRM) and is coupled with two repair strategies whenever the system fails. Maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of the marginal distribution functions associated with each of the competing risks and also of the system lifetime distribution function are presented. Estimators are derived under perfect and partial repair strategies. Consistency and asymptotic properties of the estimators are obtained. The estimation methods are applied to a data set of failures for cars under warranty. Simulation studies are used to ascertain the small sample properties and the efficiency gains of the resulting estimators.

  19. Categorizing sources of risk and the estimated magnitude of risk.

    PubMed

    Aragonés, Juan Ignacio; Moyano, Emilio; Talayero, Fernando

    2008-05-01

    The social perception of risk is considered a multidimensional task, yet little attention has been paid to the cognitive components that organize sources of risk, despite their having been discovered in various research studies. This study attempts to concretely analyze the cultural dimension involved in those processes. In the first phase, we tried to discover to what extent sources of risk are organized into the same categories by people from different countries. In order to do so, two groups of participants were formed: 60 Spanish psychology students and 60 Chilean psychology students classified 43 sources of risk into different groups according to the criteria they found appropriate. The two samples classified risk into identical groups: acts of violence, drugs, electricity and home appliances, household chemicals, chemicals in the environment, public construction projects, transportation, sports, and natural disasters. In a second study, 100 Spanish and 84 Chilean students were asked to evaluate the magnitude of the damage incurred by 17 sources of risk. In both groups, it was observed that the evaluation of damage resulting from each source of risk was affected by its category.

  20. A generic computerized method for estimate of familial risks.

    PubMed Central

    Colombet, Isabelle; Xu, Yigang; Jaulent, Marie-Christine; Desages, Daniel; Degoulet, Patrice; Chatellier, Gilles

    2002-01-01

    Most guidelines developed for cancers screening and for cardiovascular risk management use rules to estimate familial risk. These rules are complex, difficult to memorize, and need to collect a complete pedigree. This paper describes a generic computerized method to estimate familial risks and its implementation in an internet-based application. The program is based on 3 generic models: a model of the family; a model of familial risk; a display model for the pedigree. The model of family allows to represent each member of the family and to construct and display a family tree. The model of familial risk is generic and allows easy update of the program with new diseases or new rules. It was possible to implement guidelines dealing with breast and colorectal cancer and cardiovascular diseases prevention. First evaluation with general practitioners showed that the program was usable. Impact on quality of familial risk estimate should be more documented. PMID:12463810

  1. Assessment of Methods for Estimating Risk to Birds from ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The U.S. EPA Ecological Risk Assessment Support Center (ERASC) announced the release of the final report entitled, Assessment of Methods for Estimating Risk to Birds from Ingestion of Contaminated Grit Particles. This report evaluates approaches for estimating the probability of ingestion by birds of contaminated particles such as pesticide granules or lead particles (i.e. shot or bullet fragments). In addition, it presents an approach for using this information to estimate the risk of mortality to birds from ingestion of lead particles. Response to ERASC Request #16

  2. Resources for global risk assessment: the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) and Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) databases.

    PubMed

    Wullenweber, Andrea; Kroner, Oliver; Kohrman, Melissa; Maier, Andrew; Dourson, Michael; Rak, Andrew; Wexler, Philip; Tomljanovic, Chuck

    2008-11-15

    The rate of chemical synthesis and use has outpaced the development of risk values and the resolution of risk assessment methodology questions. In addition, available risk values derived by different organizations may vary due to scientific judgments, mission of the organization, or use of more recently published data. Further, each organization derives values for a unique chemical list so it can be challenging to locate data on a given chemical. Two Internet resources are available to address these issues. First, the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk (ITER) database (www.tera.org/iter) provides chronic human health risk assessment data from a variety of organizations worldwide in a side-by-side format, explains differences in risk values derived by different organizations, and links directly to each organization's website for more detailed information. It is also the only database that includes risk information from independent parties whose risk values have undergone independent peer review. Second, the Risk Information Exchange (RiskIE) is a database of in progress chemical risk assessment work, and includes non-chemical information related to human health risk assessment, such as training modules, white papers and risk documents. RiskIE is available at http://www.allianceforrisk.org/RiskIE.htm, and will join ITER on National Library of Medicine's TOXNET (http://toxnet.nlm.nih.gov/). Together, ITER and RiskIE provide risk assessors essential tools for easily identifying and comparing available risk data, for sharing in progress assessments, and for enhancing interaction among risk assessment groups to decrease duplication of effort and to harmonize risk assessment procedures across organizations.

  3. Thinking Concretely Increases the Perceived Likelihood of Risks: The Effect of Construal Level on Risk Estimation.

    PubMed

    Lermer, Eva; Streicher, Bernhard; Sachs, Rainer; Raue, Martina; Frey, Dieter

    2016-03-01

    Recent findings on construal level theory (CLT) suggest that abstract thinking leads to a lower estimated probability of an event occurring compared to concrete thinking. We applied this idea to the risk context and explored the influence of construal level (CL) on the overestimation of small and underestimation of large probabilities for risk estimates concerning a vague target person (Study 1 and Study 3) and personal risk estimates (Study 2). We were specifically interested in whether the often-found overestimation of small probabilities could be reduced with abstract thinking, and the often-found underestimation of large probabilities was reduced with concrete thinking. The results showed that CL influenced risk estimates. In particular, a concrete mindset led to higher risk estimates compared to an abstract mindset for several adverse events, including events with small and large probabilities. This suggests that CL manipulation can indeed be used for improving the accuracy of lay people's estimates of small and large probabilities. Moreover, the results suggest that professional risk managers' risk estimates of common events (thus with a relatively high probability) could be improved by adopting a concrete mindset. However, the abstract manipulation did not lead managers to estimate extremely unlikely events more accurately. Potential reasons for different CL manipulation effects on risk estimates' accuracy between lay people and risk managers are discussed.

  4. An ensemble average method to estimate absolute TEC using radio beacon-based differential phase measurements: Applicability to regions of large latitudinal gradients in plasma density

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thampi, Smitha V.; Bagiya, Mala S.; Chakrabarty, D.; Acharya, Y. B.; Yamamoto, M.

    2014-12-01

    A GNU Radio Beacon Receiver (GRBR) system for total electron content (TEC) measurements using 150 and 400 MHz transmissions from Low-Earth Orbiting Satellites (LEOS) is fabricated in house and made operational at Ahmedabad (23.04°N, 72.54°E geographic, dip latitude 17°N) since May 2013. This system receives the 150 and 400 MHz transmissions from high-inclination LEOS. The first few days of observations are presented in this work to bring out the efficacy of an ensemble average method to convert the relative TECs to absolute TECs. This method is a modified version of the differential Doppler-based method proposed by de Mendonca (1962) and suitable even for ionospheric regions with large spatial gradients. Comparison of TECs derived from a collocated GPS receiver shows that the absolute TECs estimated by this method are reliable estimates over regions with large spatial gradient. This method is useful even when only one receiving station is available. The differences between these observations are discussed to bring out the importance of the spatial differences between the ionospheric pierce points of these satellites. A few examples of the latitudinal variation of TEC during different local times using GRBR measurements are also presented, which demonstrates the potential of radio beacon measurements in capturing the large-scale plasma transport processes in the low-latitude ionosphere.

  5. Sensitivity of health risk estimates to air quality adjustment procedure

    SciTech Connect

    Whitfield, R.G.

    1997-06-30

    This letter is a summary of risk results associated with exposure estimates using two-parameter Weibull and quadratic air quality adjustment procedures (AQAPs). New exposure estimates were developed for children and child-occurrences, six urban areas, and five alternative air quality scenarios. In all cases, the Weibull and quadratic results are compared to previous results, which are based on a proportional AQAP.

  6. Absolute Zero

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donnelly, Russell J.; Sheibley, D.; Belloni, M.; Stamper-Kurn, D.; Vinen, W. F.

    2006-12-01

    Absolute Zero is a two hour PBS special attempting to bring to the general public some of the advances made in 400 years of thermodynamics. It is based on the book “Absolute Zero and the Conquest of Cold” by Tom Shachtman. Absolute Zero will call long-overdue attention to the remarkable strides that have been made in low-temperature physics, a field that has produced 27 Nobel Prizes. It will explore the ongoing interplay between science and technology through historical examples including refrigerators, ice machines, frozen foods, liquid oxygen and nitrogen as well as much colder fluids such as liquid hydrogen and liquid helium. A website has been established to promote the series: www.absolutezerocampaign.org. It contains information on the series, aimed primarily at students at the middle school level. There is a wealth of material here and we hope interested teachers will draw their student’s attention to this website and its substantial contents, which have been carefully vetted for accuracy.

  7. Multi-wavelength UV-detection in capillary hydrodynamic fractionation. Data treatment for an absolute estimate of the particle size distribution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clementi, Luis A.; Aguirre, Miren; Leiza, José R.; Gugliotta, Luis M.; Vega, Jorge R.

    2017-03-01

    A new approach is proposed for estimating the particle size distribution (PSD) of hydrophobic colloids by capillary hydrodynamic fractionation (CHDF) based on UV-detection at several wavelengths. At each elution time, the multi-wavelength UV signal is used to estimate the instantaneous PSD at the detector cell by solving the involved inverse problem through an artificial neural network. Then, the global PSD is obtained as a weighted sum of the estimated instantaneous PSDs along the entire elution time interval. With the current approach, the estimation procedure is absolute in the sense that no calibration of diameters is required and the instrumental broadening introduced by the fractionation capillary is automatically compensated for. The proposed method was evaluated on the basis of narrow polystyrene standards, as follows: i) a single standard, to emulate a narrow unimodal PSD; ii) a mixture of three standards of relatively close average diameters, to emulate a broad unimodal PSD; and iii) a mixture of two standards of quite different average diameters, to emulate a bimodal PSD. Experimental results indicate that the new approach is able to produce adequate PSD estimates provided that the particle refractive index is known with a relatively high accuracy.

  8. Estimating the re-identification risk of clinical data sets

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background De-identification is a common way to protect patient privacy when disclosing clinical data for secondary purposes, such as research. One type of attack that de-identification protects against is linking the disclosed patient data with public and semi-public registries. Uniqueness is a commonly used measure of re-identification risk under this attack. If uniqueness can be measured accurately then the risk from this kind of attack can be managed. In practice, it is often not possible to measure uniqueness directly, therefore it must be estimated. Methods We evaluated the accuracy of uniqueness estimators on clinically relevant data sets. Four candidate estimators were identified because they were evaluated in the past and found to have good accuracy or because they were new and not evaluated comparatively before: the Zayatz estimator, slide negative binomial estimator, Pitman’s estimator, and mu-argus. A Monte Carlo simulation was performed to evaluate the uniqueness estimators on six clinically relevant data sets. We varied the sampling fraction and the uniqueness in the population (the value being estimated). The median relative error and inter-quartile range of the uniqueness estimates was measured across 1000 runs. Results There was no single estimator that performed well across all of the conditions. We developed a decision rule which selected between the Pitman, slide negative binomial and Zayatz estimators depending on the sampling fraction and the difference between estimates. This decision rule had the best consistent median relative error across multiple conditions and data sets. Conclusion This study identified an accurate decision rule that can be used by health privacy researchers and disclosure control professionals to estimate uniqueness in clinical data sets. The decision rule provides a reliable way to measure re-identification risk. PMID:22776564

  9. Model-based Small Area Estimates of Cancer Risk Factors and Screening Behaviors - Small Area Estimates

    Cancer.gov

    These model-based estimates use two surveys, the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS). The two surveys are combined using novel statistical methodology.

  10. Estimating cancer risks to adults undergoing body CT examinations.

    PubMed

    Huda, Walter; He, Wenjun

    2012-06-01

    The purpose of the study is to estimate cancer risks from the amount of radiation used to perform body computed tomography (CT) examination. The ImPACT CT Patient Dosimetry Calculator was used to compute values of organ doses for adult body CT examinations. The radiation used to perform each examination was quantified by the dose-length product (DLP). Patient organ doses were converted into corresponding age and sex dependent cancer risks using data from BEIR VII. Results are presented for cancer risks per unit DLP and unit effective dose for 11 sensitive organs, as well as estimates of the contribution from 'other organs'. For patients who differ from a standard sized adult, correction factors based on the patient weight and antero-posterior dimension are provided to adjust organ doses and the corresponding risks. At constant incident radiation intensity, for CT examinations that include the chest, risks for females are markedly higher than those for males, whereas for examinations that include the pelvis, risks in males were slightly higher than those in females. In abdominal CT scans, risks for males and female patients are very similar. For abdominal CT scans, increasing the patient age from 20 to 80 resulted in a reduction in patient risks of nearly a factor of 5. The average cancer risk for chest/abdomen/pelvis CT examinations was ∼26 % higher than the cancer risk caused by 'sensitive organs'. Doses and radiation risks in 80 kg adults were ∼10 % lower than those in 70 kg patients. Cancer risks in body CT can be estimated from the examination DLP by accounting for sex, age, as well as patient physical characteristics.

  11. Estimating and Mapping the Population at Risk of Sleeping Sickness

    PubMed Central

    Franco, José R.; Paone, Massimo; Diarra, Abdoulaye; Ruiz-Postigo, José Antonio; Fèvre, Eric M.; Mattioli, Raffaele C.; Jannin, Jean G.

    2012-01-01

    Background Human African trypanosomiasis (HAT), also known as sleeping sickness, persists as a public health problem in several sub-Saharan countries. Evidence-based, spatially explicit estimates of population at risk are needed to inform planning and implementation of field interventions, monitor disease trends, raise awareness and support advocacy. Comprehensive, geo-referenced epidemiological records from HAT-affected countries were combined with human population layers to map five categories of risk, ranging from “very high” to “very low,” and to estimate the corresponding at-risk population. Results Approximately 70 million people distributed over a surface of 1.55 million km2 are estimated to be at different levels of risk of contracting HAT. Trypanosoma brucei gambiense accounts for 82.2% of the population at risk, the remaining 17.8% being at risk of infection from T. b. rhodesiense. Twenty-one million people live in areas classified as moderate to very high risk, where more than 1 HAT case per 10,000 inhabitants per annum is reported. Discussion Updated estimates of the population at risk of sleeping sickness were made, based on quantitative information on the reported cases and the geographic distribution of human population. Due to substantial methodological differences, it is not possible to make direct comparisons with previous figures for at-risk population. By contrast, it will be possible to explore trends in the future. The presented maps of different HAT risk levels will help to develop site-specific strategies for control and surveillance, and to monitor progress achieved by ongoing efforts aimed at the elimination of sleeping sickness. PMID:23145192

  12. Absolute Summ

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Phillips, Alfred, Jr.

    Summ means the entirety of the multiverse. It seems clear, from the inflation theories of A. Guth and others, that the creation of many universes is plausible. We argue that Absolute cosmological ideas, not unlike those of I. Newton, may be consistent with dynamic multiverse creations. As suggested in W. Heisenberg's uncertainty principle, and with the Anthropic Principle defended by S. Hawking, et al., human consciousness, buttressed by findings of neuroscience, may have to be considered in our models. Predictability, as A. Einstein realized with Invariants and General Relativity, may be required for new ideas to be part of physics. We present here a two postulate model geared to an Absolute Summ. The seedbed of this work is part of Akhnaton's philosophy (see S. Freud, Moses and Monotheism). Most important, however, is that the structure of human consciousness, manifest in Kenya's Rift Valley 200,000 years ago as Homo sapiens, who were the culmination of the six million year co-creation process of Hominins and Nature in Africa, allows us to do the physics that we do. .

  13. Exposure Estimation and Interpretation of Occupational Risk: Enhanced Information for the Occupational Risk Manager

    PubMed Central

    Waters, Martha; McKernan, Lauralynn; Maier, Andrew; Jayjock, Michael; Schaeffer, Val; Brosseau, Lisa

    2015-01-01

    The fundamental goal of this article is to describe, define, and analyze the components of the risk characterization process for occupational exposures. Current methods are described for the probabilistic characterization of exposure, including newer techniques that have increasing applications for assessing data from occupational exposure scenarios. In addition, since the probability of health effects reflects variability in the exposure estimate as well as the dose-response curve—the integrated considerations of variability surrounding both components of the risk characterization provide greater information to the occupational hygienist. Probabilistic tools provide a more informed view of exposure as compared to use of discrete point estimates for these inputs to the risk characterization process. Active use of such tools for exposure and risk assessment will lead to a scientifically supported worker health protection program. Understanding the bases for an occupational risk assessment, focusing on important sources of variability and uncertainty enables characterizing occupational risk in terms of a probability, rather than a binary decision of acceptable risk or unacceptable risk. A critical review of existing methods highlights several conclusions: (1) exposure estimates and the dose-response are impacted by both variability and uncertainty and a well-developed risk characterization reflects and communicates this consideration; (2) occupational risk is probabilistic in nature and most accurately considered as a distribution, not a point estimate; and (3) occupational hygienists have a variety of tools available to incorporate concepts of risk characterization into occupational health and practice. PMID:26302336

  14. Absolute Photometry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hartig, George

    1990-12-01

    The absolute sensitivity of the FOS will be determined in SV by observing 2 stars at 3 epochs, first in 3 apertures (1.0", 0.5", and 0.3" circular) and then in 1 aperture (1.0" circular). In cycle 1, one star, BD+28D4211 will be observed in the 1.0" aperture to establish the stability of the sensitivity and flat field characteristics and improve the accuracy obtained in SV. This star will also be observed through the paired apertures since these are not calibrated in SV. The stars will be observed in most detector/grating combinations. The data will be averaged to form the inverse sensitivity functions required by RSDP.

  15. Methods to Develop Inhalation Cancer Risk Estimates for ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This document summarizes the approaches and rationale for the technical and scientific considerations used to derive inhalation cancer risks for emissions of chromium and nickel compounds from electric utility steam generating units. The purpose of this document is to discuss the methods used to develop inhalation cancer risk estimates associated with emissions of chromium and nickel compounds from coal- and oil-fired electric utility steam generating units (EGUs) in support of EPA's recently proposed Air Toxics Rule.

  16. Studies on the extended Techa river cohort: cancer risk estimation

    SciTech Connect

    Kossenko, M M.; Preston, D L.; Krestinina, L Y.; Degteva, M O.; Startsev, N V.; Thomas, T; Vyushkova, O V.; Anspaugh, L R.; Napier, Bruce A. ); Kozheurov, V P.; Ron, E; Akleyev, A V.

    2001-12-01

    Initial population-based studies of riverside residents were begun in the late 1950s and in 1967 a systematic effort was undertaken to develop a well-defined fixed cohort of Techa river residents, to carry out ongoing mortality and (limited) clinical follow-up of this cohort, and to provide individualized dose estimates for cohort members. Over the past decade, extensive efforts have been made to refine the cohort definition and improve both the follow-up and dosimetry data. Analyses of the Techa river cohort can provide useful quantitative estimates of the effects of low dose rate, chronic external and internal exposures on cancer mortality and incidence and non-cancer mortality rates. These risk estimates complement quantitative risk estimates for acute exposures based on the atomic bomb survivors and chronic exposure risk estimates from worker studies, including Mayak workers and other groups with occupational radiation exposures. As the dosimetry and follow-up are refined it may also be possible to gain useful insights into risks associated with 90Sr exposures.

  17. Estimating transport fatality risk from past accident data.

    PubMed

    Evans, Andrew W

    2003-07-01

    This paper examines the statistical properties of estimates of fatal accident rates, mean fatalities per accident, and fatality rates when these estimates are based on past accident data. The statistical properties are illustrated by two long-term transport fatal accident datasets from Great Britain, the principal one for railways and the other for roads, chosen to provide a statistical contrast. In both modes, the accident rates have fallen substantially over the long term. Two statistical estimates of current accident and fatality rates are presented for each dataset, one based only on recent data and the other based on estimates of long-term trends. The trend-based estimate is preferred for train accidents because this makes maximum use of the limited and variable data; the recent data are preferred for road accidents because this avoids unnecessary dependence on modelling the trends. For train accidents, the estimated fatality rate based on past accidents is compared with an estimate produced by the railway industry using a risk model. The statistical estimate is less than half the industry's estimate, and the paper concludes that the statistical estimate is to be preferred.

  18. On the estimation of risk associated with an attenuation prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crane, R. K.

    1992-01-01

    Viewgraphs from a presentation on the estimation of risk associated with an attenuation prediction is presented. Topics covered include: link failure - attenuation exceeding a specified threshold for a specified time interval or intervals; risk - the probability of one or more failures during the lifetime of the link or during a specified accounting interval; the problem - modeling the probability of attenuation by rainfall to provide a prediction of the attenuation threshold for a specified risk; and an accounting for the inadequacy of a model or models.

  19. Monitoring water storage changes using absolute gravity measurements, neutron probes and piezometer data in West Africa: advances in specific yield and recharge estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hector, B.; Séguis, L.; Descloîtres, M.; Hinderer, J.; Wubda, M.; Luck, B.; Le Moigne, N.

    2012-04-01

    Advances in water storage monitoring are crucial to characterize the spatial variability of hydrological processes. Classical water storage investigation methods often involve point measurements (piezometers, neutron probes, humidity sensors…), which may be irrelevant in heterogeneous mediums. Over the past few years, there has been an increasing interest in the use of gravimeters for hydrological studies. Water mass redistribution leads to variations in the Earth's gravity field which can be measured by gravimetry. In the framework of the GHYRAF (Gravity and Hydrology in Africa) project, 3 years of repeated absolute gravity measurements using FG5#206 from Micro-g Solutions Inc. have been undertaken at Nalohou, a Sudanian site in northern Benin. Hydrological monitoring is carried out within the long-term observing system AMMA-Catch (an observatory of RBV, the French critical zone exploration network). Seasonal gravity variations in link with the hydrological cycle can reach 11 µgal at this site, equivalent to a 26cm thick infinite layer of water. The vadose zone and a shallow unconfined aquifer in weathered metamorphic rocks are responsible for most of the water storage variations. For the first time in the climatic context of the West African monsoon, gravity data are compared to the time evolution of the water storages deduced from neutron probes and water-table variations. The approach is two-fold: first, total storage variations are estimated from neutron probe-derived moisture through the whole vertical profile (surface to groundwater) monitored at the gravimetric site and uniformly extended according to the topography. Results show a very good fit with gravity data, enlightening the fact that absolute gravimeters are sensitive to total water storage variations from the soil surface to the aquifer. The second approach introduces a spatial variability: it was undertaken to check a structural model for specific yield of the aquifer, based on magnetic

  20. Estimation of the Long-term Cardiovascular Events Using UKPDS Risk Engine in Metabolic Syndrome Patients.

    PubMed

    Shivakumar, V; Kandhare, A D; Rajmane, A R; Adil, M; Ghosh, P; Badgujar, L B; Saraf, M N; Bodhankar, S L

    2014-03-01

    Long-term cardiovascular complications in metabolic syndrome are a major cause of mortality and morbidity in India and forecasted estimates in this domain of research are scarcely reported in the literature. The aim of present investigation is to estimate the cardiovascular events associated with a representative Indian population of patients suffering from metabolic syndrome using United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study risk engine. Patient level data was collated from 567 patients suffering from metabolic syndrome through structured interviews and physician records regarding the input variables, which were entered into the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study risk engine. The patients of metabolic syndrome were selected according to guidelines of National Cholesterol Education Program - Adult Treatment Panel III, modified National Cholesterol Education Program - Adult Treatment Panel III and International Diabetes Federation criteria. A projection for 10 simulated years was run on the engine and output was determined. The data for each patient was processed using the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study risk engine to calculate an estimate of the forecasted value for the cardiovascular complications after a period of 10 years. The absolute risk (95% confidence interval) for coronary heart disease, fatal coronary heart disease, stroke and fatal stroke for 10 years was 3.79 (1.5-3.2), 9.6 (6.8-10.7), 7.91 (6.5-9.9) and 3.57 (2.3-4.5), respectively. The relative risk (95% confidence interval) for coronary heart disease, fatal coronary heart disease, stroke and fatal stroke was 17.8 (12.98-19.99), 7 (6.7-7.2), 5.9 (4.0-6.6) and 4.7 (3.2-5.7), respectively. Simulated projections of metabolic syndrome patients predict serious life-threatening cardiovascular consequences in the representative cohort of patients in western India.

  1. Sensitivity of risk estimates to wildlife bioaccumulation factors in ecological risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Karustis, C.G.; Brewer, R.A.

    1995-12-31

    The concept of conservatism in risk assessment is well established. However, overly conservative assumptions may result in risk estimates that incorrectly predict remediation goals. Therefore, realistic assumptions should be applied in risk assessment whenever possible. A sensitivity analysis was performed on conservative (i.e. bioaccumulation factor = 1) and scientifically-derived wildlife bioaccumulation factors (BAFs) utilized to calculate risks during a terrestrial ecological risk assessment (ERA). In the first approach, 100% bioaccumulation of contaminants was assumed to estimate the transfer of contaminants through the terrestrial food chain. In the second approach, scientifically-derived BAFs were selected from the literature. For one of the measurement species selected, total risks calculated during the first approach were higher than those calculated during the second approach by two orders of magnitude. However, potential risks due to individual contaminants were not necessarily higher using the conservative approach. Potential risk due to contaminants with low actual bioaccumulation were exaggerated while potential risks due to contaminants with greater than 100% bioaccumulation were underestimated. Therefore, the use of a default of 100% bioaccumulation (BAF = 1) for all contaminants encountered during an ERA could result in cases where contaminants are incorrectly identified as risk drivers, and the calculation of incorrect ecological risk-based cleanup goals. The authors suggest using site-specific or literature-derived BAFs whenever possible and realistic BAF estimates, based upon factors such as log K{sub ow}, when BAFs are unavailable.

  2. Reconstruction of financial networks for robust estimation of systemic risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mastromatteo, Iacopo; Zarinelli, Elia; Marsili, Matteo

    2012-03-01

    In this paper we estimate the propagation of liquidity shocks through interbank markets when the information about the underlying credit network is incomplete. We show that techniques such as maximum entropy currently used to reconstruct credit networks severely underestimate the risk of contagion by assuming a trivial (fully connected) topology, a type of network structure which can be very different from the one empirically observed. We propose an efficient message-passing algorithm to explore the space of possible network structures and show that a correct estimation of the network degree of connectedness leads to more reliable estimations for systemic risk. Such an algorithm is also able to produce maximally fragile structures, providing a practical upper bound for the risk of contagion when the actual network structure is unknown. We test our algorithm on ensembles of synthetic data encoding some features of real financial networks (sparsity and heterogeneity), finding that more accurate estimations of risk can be achieved. Finally we find that this algorithm can be used to control the amount of information that regulators need to require from banks in order to sufficiently constrain the reconstruction of financial networks.

  3. Estimates of endemic waterborne risks from community-intervention studies.

    PubMed

    Calderon, Rebecca L; Craun, Gunther F

    2006-01-01

    The nature and magnitude of endemic waterborne disease are not well characterized in the United States. Epidemiologic studies of various designs can provide an estimate of the waterborne attributable risk along with other types of information. Community drinking water systems frequently improve their operations and may change drinking water treatment and their major source of water. In the United States, many of these treatment changes are the result of regulations promulgated under the Safe Drinking Water Act. A community-intervention study design takes advantage of these "natural" experiments to assess changes in health risks. In this paper, we review the community-intervention studies that have assessed changes in waterborne gastroenteritis risks among immunocompetent populations in industrialized countries. Published results are available from two studies in Australia, one study in the United Kingdom, and one study in the United States. Preliminary results from two other US studies are also available. Although the current information is limited, the risks reported in these community-intervention studies can help inform the national estimate of endemic waterborne gastroenteritis. Information is provided about endemic waterborne risks for unfiltered surface water sources and a groundwater under the influence of surface water. Community-intervention studies with recommended study modifications should be conducted to better estimate the benefits associated with improved drinking water treatment.

  4. Neoplastic potential of gastric irradiation. IV. Risk estimates

    SciTech Connect

    Griem, M.L.; Justman, J.; Weiss, L.

    1984-12-01

    No significant tumor increase was found in the initial analysis of patients irradiated for peptic ulcer and followed through 1962. A preliminary study was undertaken 22 years later to estimate the risk of cancer due to gastric irradiation for peptic ulcer disease. A population of 2,049 irradiated patients and 763 medically managed patients has been identified. A relative risk of 3.7 was found for stomach cancer and an initial risk estimate of 5.5 x 10(-6) excess stomach cancers per person rad was calculated. A more complete follow-up is in progress to further elucidate this observation and decrease the ascertainment bias; however, preliminary data are in agreement with the Japanese atomic bomb reports.

  5. Methodology to predict long-term cancer survival from short-term data using Tobacco Cancer Risk and Absolute Cancer Cure models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mould, R. F.; Lederman, M.; Tai, P.; Wong, J. K. M.

    2002-11-01

    Three parametric statistical models have been fully validated for cancer of the larynx for the prediction of long-term 15, 20 and 25 year cancer-specific survival fractions when short-term follow-up data was available for just 1-2 years after the end of treatment of the last patient. In all groups of cases the treatment period was only 5 years. Three disease stage groups were studied, T1N0, T2N0 and T3N0. The models are the Standard Lognormal (SLN) first proposed by Boag (1949 J. R. Stat. Soc. Series B 11 15-53) but only ever fully validated for cancer of the cervix, Mould and Boag (1975 Br. J. Cancer 32 529-50), and two new models which have been termed Tobacco Cancer Risk (TCR) and Absolute Cancer Cure (ACC). In each, the frequency distribution of survival times of defined groups of cancer deaths is lognormally distributed: larynx only (SLN), larynx and lung (TCR) and all cancers (ACC). All models each have three unknown parameters but it was possible to estimate a value for the lognormal parameter S a priori. By reduction to two unknown parameters the model stability has been improved. The material used to validate the methodology consisted of case histories of 965 patients, all treated during the period 1944-1968 by Dr Manuel Lederman of the Royal Marsden Hospital, London, with follow-up to 1988. This provided a follow-up range of 20- 44 years and enabled predicted long-term survival fractions to be compared with the actual survival fractions, calculated by the Kaplan and Meier (1958 J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 53 457-82) method. The TCR and ACC models are better than the SLN model and for a maximum short-term follow-up of 6 years, the 20 and 25 year survival fractions could be predicted. Therefore the numbers of follow-up years saved are respectively 14 years and 19 years. Clinical trial results using the TCR and ACC models can thus be analysed much earlier than currently possible. Absolute cure from cancer was also studied, using not only the prediction models which

  6. Ambient air quality measurements from a continuously moving mobile platform: Estimation of area-wide, fuel-based, mobile source emission factors using absolute principal component scores

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Larson, Timothy; Gould, Timothy; Riley, Erin A.; Austin, Elena; Fintzi, Jonathan; Sheppard, Lianne; Yost, Michael; Simpson, Christopher

    2017-03-01

    We have applied the absolute principal component scores (APCS) receptor model to on-road, background-adjusted measurements of NOx, CO, CO2, black carbon (BC), and particle number (PN) obtained from a continuously moving platform deployed over nine afternoon sampling periods in Seattle, WA. Two Varimax-rotated principal component features described 75% of the overall variance of the observations. A heavy-duty vehicle feature was correlated with black carbon and particle number, whereas a light-duty feature was correlated with CO and CO2. NOx had moderate correlation with both features. The bootstrapped APCS model predictions were used to estimate area-wide, average fuel-based emission factors and their respective 95% confidence limits. The average emission factors for NOx, CO, BC and PN (14.8, 18.9, 0.40 g/kg, and 4.3 × 1015 particles/kg for heavy duty vehicles, and 3.2, 22.4, 0.016 g/kg, and 0.19 × 1015 particles/kg for light-duty vehicles, respectively) are consistent with previous estimates based on remote sensing, vehicle chase studies, and recent dynamometer tests. Information on the spatial distribution of the concentrations contributed by these two vehicle categories relative to background during the sampling period was also obtained.

  7. Estimation of myocardial volume at risk from CT angiography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, Liangjia; Gao, Yi; Mohan, Vandana; Stillman, Arthur; Faber, Tracy; Tannenbaum, Allen

    2011-03-01

    The determination of myocardial volume at risk distal to coronary stenosis provides important information for prognosis and treatment of coronary artery disease. In this paper, we present a novel computational framework for estimating the myocardial volume at risk in computed tomography angiography (CTA) imagery. Initially, epicardial and endocardial surfaces, and coronary arteries are extracted using an active contour method. Then, the extracted coronary arteries are projected onto the epicardial surface, and each point on this surface is associated with its closest coronary artery using the geodesic distance measurement. The likely myocardial region at risk on the epicardial surface caused by a stenosis is approximated by the region in which all its inner points are associated with the sub-branches distal to the stenosis on the coronary artery tree. Finally, the likely myocardial volume at risk is approximated by the volume in between the region at risk on the epicardial surface and its projection on the endocardial surface, which is expected to yield computational savings over risk volume estimation using the entire image volume. Furthermore, we expect increased accuracy since, as compared to prior work using the Euclidean distance, we employ the geodesic distance in this work. The experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach on pig heart CTA datasets.

  8. Estimating population health risk from low-level environmental radon

    SciTech Connect

    Fisher, D.R.

    1980-01-01

    Although incidence of respiratory cancer is directly related to inhalation of radon and radon daughters, the magnitude of the actual risk is uncertain for members of the general population exposed for long periods to low-level concentrations. Currently, any such estimate of the risk must rely on data obtained through previous studies of underground-miner populations. Several methods of risk analysis have resulted from these studies. Since the breathing atmospheres, smoking patterns, and physiology are different between miners and the general public, overestimates of lung cancer risk to the latter may have resulted. Strong evidence exists to support the theory of synergistic action between alpha radiation and other agents, and therefore a modified relative risk model was developed to predict lung cancer risks to the general public. The model considers latent period, observation period, age dependency, and inherent risks from smoking or geographical location. A test of the model showed excellent agreement with results of the study of Czechoslovakian uranium miners, for which the necessary time factors were available. The risk model was also used to predict lung cancer incidence among residents of homes on reclaimed Florida phosphate lands, and results of this analysis indicate that over the space of many years, the increased incidence of lung cancer due to elevated radon levels may be indisgtinguishable from those due to other causes.

  9. Estimating Non-stationary Flood Risk in a Changing Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, X.; Cohn, T. A.; Stedinger, J. R.

    2015-12-01

    Flood risk is usually described by a probability distribution for annual maximum streamflow which is assumed not to change with time. Federal, state and local governments in the United States are demanding guidance on flood frequency estimates that account for climate change. If a trend exists in peak flow series, ignoring it could result in large quantile estimator bias, while trying to estimate a trend will increase the flood quantile estimator's variance. Thus the issue is, what bias-variance tradeoff should we accept? This paper discusses approaches to flood frequency analysis (FFA) when flood series have trends. GCMs describe how annual runoff might vary over sub-continental scales, but this information is nearly useless for FFA in small watersheds. A LP3 Monte Carlo analysis and a re-sampling study of 100-year flood estimation (25- and 50-year projections) compares the performance of five methods: FFA as prescribed in national guidelines (Bulletin 17B), assumes the flood series is stationary and follows a log-Pearson type III (LP3) distribution; Fitting a LP3 distribution with time-varying parameters that include future trends in mean and perhaps variance, where slopes are assumed known; Fitting a LP3 distribution with time-varying parameters that capture future trends in mean and perhaps variance, where slopes are estimated from annual peak flow series; Employing only the most recent 30 years of flood records to fit a LP3 distribution; Applying a safety factor to the 100-year flood estimator (e.g. 25% increase). The 100-year flood estimator of method 2 has the smallest log-space mean squared error, though it is unlikely that the true trend would be known. Method 3 is only recommended over method 1 for large trends (≥ 0.5% per year). The 100-year flood estimators of method 1, 4, and 5 often have poor accuracy. Clearly, flood risk assessment will be a challenge in an uncertain world.

  10. Risk assessment in diabetes management: how do general practitioners estimate risks due to diabetes?

    PubMed Central

    Häussler, Bertram; Fischer, Gisela C; Meyer, Sibylle; Sturm, Diethard

    2007-01-01

    Objectives To evaluate the ability of general practitioners (GPs) in Germany to estimate the risk of patients with diabetes developing complications. Methods An interview study using a structured questionnaire to estimate risks of four case vignettes having diabetes‐specific complications within the next 10 years, risk reduction and life expectancy potential. A representative random sample of 584 GPs has been drawn, of which 150 could be interviewed. We compared GPs' estimates among each other (intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and Cohen's (multirater‐) κ) and with risks for long‐term complications generated by the multifactor disease model “Mellibase”, which is a knowledge‐based support system for medical decision management. Results The risk estimates by GPs varied widely (ICC 0.21 95% CI (0.13 to 0.36)). The average level of potential risk reduction was between 47% and 70%. Compared with Mellibase values, on average, the GPs overestimated the risk threefold. Mean estimates of potential prolongation of life expectancy were close to 10 years for each patient, whereas the Mellibase calculations ranged from 3 to 10 years. Conclusions Overestimation could lead to unnecessary care and waste of resources. PMID:17545348

  11. Estimation of earthquake risk curves of physical building damage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raschke, Mathias; Janouschkowetz, Silke; Fischer, Thomas; Simon, Christian

    2014-05-01

    In this study, a new approach to quantify seismic risks is presented. Here, the earthquake risk curves for the number of buildings with a defined physical damage state are estimated for South Africa. Therein, we define the physical damage states according to the current European macro-seismic intensity scale (EMS-98). The advantage of such kind of risk curve is that its plausibility can be checked more easily than for other types. The earthquake risk curve for physical building damage can be compared with historical damage and their corresponding empirical return periods. The number of damaged buildings from historical events is generally explored and documented in more detail than the corresponding monetary losses. The latter are also influenced by different economic conditions, such as inflation and price hikes. Further on, the monetary risk curve can be derived from the developed risk curve of physical building damage. The earthquake risk curve can also be used for the validation of underlying sub-models such as the hazard and vulnerability modules.

  12. Estimating radiation risk induced by CT screening for Korean population

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Won Seok; Yang, Hye Jeong; Min, Byung In

    2017-02-01

    The purposes of this study are to estimate the radiation risks induced by chest/abdomen computed tomography (CT) screening for healthcare and to determine the cancer risk level of the Korean population compared to other populations. We used an ImPACT CT Patient Dosimetry Calculator to compute the organ effective dose induced by CT screening (chest, low-dose chest, abdomen/pelvis, and chest/abdomen/pelvis CT). A risk model was applied using principles based on the BEIR VII Report in order to estimate the lifetime attributable risk (LAR) using the Korean Life Table 2010. In addition, several countries including Hong Kong, the United States (U.S.), and the United Kingdom, were selected for comparison. Herein, each population exposed radiation dose of 100 mSv was classified according to country, gender and age. For each CT screening the total organ effective dose calculated by ImPACT was 6.2, 1.5, 5.2 and 11.4 mSv, respectively. In the case of Korean female LAR, it was similar to Hong Kong female but lower than those of U.S. and U.K. females, except for those in their twenties. The LAR of Korean males was the highest for all types of CT screening. However, the difference of the risk level was negligible because of the quite low value.

  13. A Review of Expertise and Judgment Processes for Risk Estimation

    SciTech Connect

    R. L. Boring

    2007-06-01

    A major challenge of risk and reliability analysis for human errors or hardware failures is the need to enlist expert opinion in areas for which adequate operational data are not available. Experts enlisted in this capacity provide probabilistic estimates of reliability, typically comprised of a measure of central tendency and uncertainty bounds. While formal guidelines for expert elicitation are readily available, they largely fail to provide a theoretical basis for expertise and judgment. This paper reviews expertise and judgment in the context of risk analysis; overviews judgment biases, the role of training, and multivariate judgments; and provides guidance on the appropriate use of atomistic and holistic judgment processes.

  14. Estimates of health risk from exposure to radioactive pollutants

    SciTech Connect

    Sullivan, R.E.; Nelson, N.S.; Ellett, W.H.; Dunning, D.E. Jr.; Leggett, R.W.; Yalcintas, M.G.; Eckerman, K.F.

    1981-11-01

    A dosimetric and health effects analysis has been performed for the Office of Radiation Programs of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to assess potential hazards from radioactive pollutants. Contemporary dosimetric methods were used to obtain estimates of dose rates to reference organs from internal exposures due to either inhalation of contaminated air or ingestion of contaminated food, or from external exposures due to either immersion in contaminated air or proximity to contaminated ground surfaces. These dose rates were then used to estimate the number of premature cancer deaths arising from such exposures and the corresponding number of years of life lost in a cohort of 100,000 persons, all simultaneously liveborn and all going through life with the same risks of dying from competing causes. The risk of dying from a competing cause for a given year was taken to be the probability of dying from all causes as given in a recent actuarial life table for the total US population.

  15. Improved risk estimates for carbon tetrachloride. 1998 annual progress report

    SciTech Connect

    Benson, J.M.; Springer, D.L.; Thrall, K.D.

    1998-06-01

    'The overall purpose of these studies is to improve the scientific basis for assessing the cancer risk associated with human exposure to carbon tetrachloride. Specifically, the toxicokinetics of inhaled carbon tetrachloride is being determined in rats, mice and hamsters. Species differences in the metabolism of carbon tetrachloride by rats, mice and hamsters is being determined in vivo and in vitro using tissues and microsomes from these rodent species and man. Dose-response relationships will be determined in all studies. The information will be used to improve the current physiologically based pharmacokinetic model for carbon tetrachloride. The authors will also determine whether carbon tetrachloride is a hepatocarcinogen only when exposure results in cell damage, cell killing, and regenerative cell proliferation. In combination, the results of these studies will provide the types of information needed to enable a refined risk estimate for carbon tetrachloride under EPA''s new guidelines for cancer risk assessment.'

  16. Risk estimation based on chromosomal aberrations induced by radiation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Durante, M.; Bonassi, S.; George, K.; Cucinotta, F. A.

    2001-01-01

    The presence of a causal association between the frequency of chromosomal aberrations in peripheral blood lymphocytes and the risk of cancer has been substantiated recently by epidemiological studies. Cytogenetic analyses of crew members of the Mir Space Station have shown that a significant increase in the frequency of chromosomal aberrations can be detected after flight, and that such an increase is likely to be attributed to the radiation exposure. The risk of cancer can be estimated directly from the yields of chromosomal aberrations, taking into account some aspects of individual susceptibility and other factors unrelated to radiation. However, the use of an appropriate technique for the collection and analysis of chromosomes and the choice of the structural aberrations to be measured are crucial in providing sound results. Based on the fraction of aberrant lymphocytes detected before and after flight, the relative risk after a long-term Mir mission is estimated to be about 1.2-1.3. The new technique of mFISH can provide useful insights into the quantification of risk on an individual basis.

  17. Estimation of tuberculosis risk on a commercial airliner.

    PubMed

    Ko, Gwangpyo; Thompson, Kimberly M; Nardell, Edward A

    2004-04-01

    This article estimates the risk of tuberculosis (TB) transmission on a typical commercial airliner using a simple one box model (OBM) and a sequential box model (SBM). We used input data derived from an actual TB exposure on an airliner, and we assumed a hypothetical scenario that a highly infectious TB source case (i.e., 108 infectious quanta per hour) travels as a passenger on an 8.7-hour flight. We estimate an average risk of TB transmission on the order of 1 chance in 1,000 for all passengers using the OBM. Applying the more realistic SBM, we show that the risk and incidence decrease sharply in a stepwise fashion in cabins downstream from the cabin containing the source case assuming some potential for airflow from more contaminated to less contaminated cabins. We further characterized spatial variability in the risk within the cabin by modeling a previously reported TB outbreak in an airplane to demonstrate that the TB cases occur most likely within close proximity of the source TB patient.

  18. How Many Significant Figures are Useful for Public Risk Estimates?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilde, Paul D.; Duffy, Jim

    2013-09-01

    This paper considers the level of uncertainty in the calculation of public risks from launch or reentry and provides guidance on the number of significant digits that can be used with confidence when reporting the analysis results to decision-makers. The focus of this paper is the uncertainty in collective risk calculations that are used for launches of new and mature ELVs. This paper examines the computational models that are used to estimate total collective risk to the public for a launch, including the model input data and the model results, and characterizes the uncertainties due to both bias and variability. There have been two recent efforts to assess the uncertainty in state-of-the-art risk analysis models used in the US and their input data. One assessment focused on launch area risk from an Atlas V at Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) and the other focused on downrange risk to Eurasia from a Falcon 9 launched from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The results of these studies quantified the uncertainties related to both the probability and the consequence of the launch debris hazards. This paper summarizes the results of both of these relatively comprehensive launch risk uncertainty analyses, which addressed both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. The epistemic uncertainties of most concern were associated with probability of failure and the debris list. Other major sources of uncertainty evaluated were: the casualty area for people in shelters that are impacted by debris, impact distribution size, yield from exploding propellant and propellant tanks, probability of injury from a blast wave for people in shelters or outside, and population density. This paper also summarizes a relatively comprehensive over-flight risk uncertainty analysis performed by the FAA for the second stage of flight for a Falcon 9 from CCAFS. This paper is applicable to baseline collective risk analyses, such as those used to make a commercial license determination, and

  19. Seismic Risk Assessment and Loss Estimation for Tbilisi City

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsereteli, Nino; Alania, Victor; Varazanashvili, Otar; Gugeshashvili, Tengiz; Arabidze, Vakhtang; Arevadze, Nika; Tsereteli, Emili; Gaphrindashvili, Giorgi; Gventcadze, Alexander; Goguadze, Nino; Vephkhvadze, Sophio

    2013-04-01

    The proper assessment of seismic risk is of crucial importance for society protection and city sustainable economic development, as it is the essential part to seismic hazard reduction. Estimation of seismic risk and losses is complicated tasks. There is always knowledge deficiency on real seismic hazard, local site effects, inventory on elements at risk, infrastructure vulnerability, especially for developing countries. Lately great efforts was done in the frame of EMME (earthquake Model for Middle East Region) project, where in the work packages WP1, WP2 , WP3 and WP4 where improved gaps related to seismic hazard assessment and vulnerability analysis. Finely in the frame of work package wp5 "City Scenario" additional work to this direction and detail investigation of local site conditions, active fault (3D) beneath Tbilisi were done. For estimation economic losses the algorithm was prepared taking into account obtained inventory. The long term usage of building is very complex. It relates to the reliability and durability of buildings. The long term usage and durability of a building is determined by the concept of depreciation. Depreciation of an entire building is calculated by summing the products of individual construction unit' depreciation rates and the corresponding value of these units within the building. This method of calculation is based on an assumption that depreciation is proportional to the building's (constructions) useful life. We used this methodology to create a matrix, which provides a way to evaluate the depreciation rates of buildings with different type and construction period and to determine their corresponding value. Finally loss was estimated resulting from shaking 10%, 5% and 2% exceedance probability in 50 years. Loss resulting from scenario earthquake (earthquake with possible maximum magnitude) also where estimated.

  20. Risk cross sections and their application to risk estimation in the galactic cosmic-ray environment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Curtis, S. B.; Nealy, J. E.; Wilson, J. W.; Chatterjee, A. (Principal Investigator)

    1995-01-01

    Radiation risk cross sections (i.e. risks per particle fluence) are discussed in the context of estimating the risk of radiation-induced cancer on long-term space flights from the galactic cosmic radiation outside the confines of the earth's magnetic field. Such quantities are useful for handling effects not seen after low-LET radiation. Since appropriate cross-section functions for cancer induction for each particle species are not yet available, the conventional quality factor is used as an approximation to obtain numerical results for risks of excess cancer mortality. Risks are obtained for seven of the most radiosensitive organs as determined by the ICRP [stomach, colon, lung, bone marrow (BFO), bladder, esophagus and breast], beneath 10 g/cm2 aluminum shielding at solar minimum. Spectra are obtained for excess relative risk for each cancer per LET interval by calculating the average fluence-LET spectrum for the organ and converting to risk by multiplying by a factor proportional to R gamma L Q(L) before integrating over L, the unrestricted LET. Here R gamma is the risk coefficient for low-LET radiation (excess relative mortality per Sv) for the particular organ in question. The total risks of excess cancer mortality obtained are 1.3 and 1.1% to female and male crew, respectively, for a 1-year exposure at solar minimum. Uncertainties in these values are estimated to range between factors of 4 and 15 and are dominated by the biological uncertainties in the risk coefficients for low-LET radiation and in the LET (or energy) dependence of the risk cross sections (as approximated by the quality factor). The direct substitution of appropriate risk cross sections will eventually circumvent entirely the need to calculate, measure or use absorbed dose, equivalent dose and quality factor for such a high-energy charged-particle environment.

  1. Leukemia risk associated with benzene exposure in the pliofilm cohort. II. Risk estimates.

    PubMed

    Paxton, M B; Chinchilli, V M; Brett, S M; Rodricks, J V

    1994-04-01

    The detailed work histories of the individual workers composing the Pliofilm cohort represent a unique resource for estimating the dose-response for leukemia that may follow occupational exposure to benzene. In this paper, we report the results of analyzing the updated Pliofilm cohort using the proportional hazards model, a more sophisticated technique that uses more of the available exposure data than the conditional logistic model used by Rinsky et al. The more rigorously defined exposure estimates derived by Paustenbach et al. are consistent with those of Crump and Allen in giving estimates of the slope of the leukemogenic dose-response that are not as steep as the slope resulting from the exposure estimates of Rinsky et al. We consider estimates of 0.3-0.5 additional leukemia deaths per thousand workers with 45 ppm-years of cumulative benzene exposure to be the best estimates currently available of leukemia risk from occupational exposure to benzene. These risks were estimated in the proportional hazards model when the exposure estimates of Crump and Allen or of Paustenbach et al. were used to derive a cumulative concentration-by-time metric.

  2. Estimating twin concordance for bivariate competing risks twin data.

    PubMed

    Scheike, Thomas H; Holst, Klaus K; Hjelmborg, Jacob B

    2014-03-30

    For twin time-to-event data, we consider different concordance probabilities, such as the casewise concordance that are routinely computed as a measure of the lifetime dependence/correlation for specific diseases. The concordance probability here is the probability that both twins have experienced the event of interest. Under the assumption that both twins are censored at the same time, we show how to estimate this probability in the presence of right censoring, and as a consequence, we can then estimate the casewise twin concordance. In addition, we can model the magnitude of within pair dependence over time, and covariates may be further influential on the marginal risk and dependence structure. We establish the estimators large sample properties and suggest various tests, for example, for inferring familial influence. The method is demonstrated and motivated by specific twin data on cancer events with the competing risk death. We thus aim to quantify the degree of dependence through the casewise concordance function and show a significant genetic component.

  3. Cancer Risk Estimates from Space Flight Estimated Using Yields of Chromosome Damage in Astronaut's Blood Lymphocytes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    George, Kerry A.; Rhone, J.; Chappell, L. J.; Cucinotta, F. A.

    2011-01-01

    To date, cytogenetic damage has been assessed in blood lymphocytes from more than 30 astronauts before and after they participated in long-duration space missions of three months or more on board the International Space Station. Chromosome damage was assessed using fluorescence in situ hybridization whole chromosome analysis techniques. For all individuals, the frequency of chromosome damage measured within a month of return from space was higher than their preflight yield, and biodosimetry estimates were within the range expected from physical dosimetry. Follow up analyses have been performed on most of the astronauts at intervals ranging from around 6 months to many years after flight, and the cytogenetic effects of repeat long-duration missions have so far been assessed in four individuals. Chromosomal aberrations in peripheral blood lymphocytes have been validated as biomarkers of cancer risk and cytogenetic damage can therefore be used to characterize excess health risk incurred by individual crewmembers after their respective missions. Traditional risk assessment models are based on epidemiological data obtained on Earth in cohorts exposed predominantly to acute doses of gamma-rays, and the extrapolation to the space environment is highly problematic, involving very large uncertainties. Cytogenetic damage could play a key role in reducing uncertainty in risk estimation because it is incurred directly in the space environment, using specimens from the astronauts themselves. Relative cancer risks were estimated from the biodosimetry data using the quantitative approach derived from the European Study Group on Cytogenetic Biomarkers and Health database. Astronauts were categorized into low, medium, or high tertiles according to their yield of chromosome damage. Age adjusted tertile rankings were used to estimate cancer risk and results were compared with values obtained using traditional modeling approaches. Individual tertile rankings increased after space

  4. Data Sources for the Model-based Small Area Estimates of Cancer Risk Factors and Screening Behaviors - Small Area Estimates

    Cancer.gov

    The model-based estimates of important cancer risk factors and screening behaviors are obtained by combining the responses to the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS).

  5. Spatio-temporal population estimates for risk management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cockings, Samantha; Martin, David; Smith, Alan; Martin, Rebecca

    2013-04-01

    Accurate estimation of population at risk from hazards and effective emergency management of events require not just appropriate spatio-temporal modelling of hazards but also of population. While much recent effort has been focused on improving the modelling and predictions of hazards (both natural and anthropogenic), there has been little parallel advance in the measurement or modelling of population statistics. Different hazard types occur over diverse temporal cycles, are of varying duration and differ significantly in their spatial extent. Even events of the same hazard type, such as flood events, vary markedly in their spatial and temporal characteristics. Conceptually and pragmatically then, population estimates should also be available for similarly varying spatio-temporal scales. Routine population statistics derived from traditional censuses or surveys are usually static representations in both space and time, recording people at their place of usual residence on census/survey night and presenting data for administratively defined areas. Such representations effectively fix the scale of population estimates in both space and time, which is unhelpful for meaningful risk management. Over recent years, the Pop24/7 programme of research, based at the University of Southampton (UK), has developed a framework for spatio-temporal modelling of population, based on gridded population surfaces. Based on a data model which is fully flexible in terms of space and time, the framework allows population estimates to be produced for any time slice relevant to the data contained in the model. It is based around a set of origin and destination centroids, which have capacities, spatial extents and catchment areas, all of which can vary temporally, such as by time of day, day of week, season. A background layer, containing information on features such as transport networks and landuse, provides information on the likelihood of people being in certain places at specific times

  6. Estimating Worker Risk Levels Using Accident/Incident Data

    SciTech Connect

    Kenoyer, Judson L.; Stenner, Robert D.; Andrews, William B.; Scherpelz, Robert I.; Aaberg, Rosanne L.

    2000-09-26

    The purpose of the work described in this report was to identify methods that are currently being used in the Department of Energy (DOE) complex to identify and control hazards/risks in the workplace, evaluate them in terms of their effectiveness in reducing risk to the workers, and to develop a preliminary method that could be used to predict the relative risks to workers performing proposed tasks using some of the current methodology. This report describes some of the performance indicators (i.e., safety metrics) that are currently being used to track relative levels of workplace safety in the DOE complex, how these fit into an Integrated Safety Management (ISM) system, some strengths and weaknesses of using a statistically based set of indicators, and methods to evaluate them. Also discussed are methods used to reduce risk to the workers and some of the techniques that appear to be working in the process of establishing a condition of continuous improvement. The results of these methods will be used in future work involved with the determination of modifying factors for a more complex model. The preliminary method to predict the relative risk level to workers during an extended future time period is based on a currently used performance indicator that uses several factors tracked in the CAIRS. The relative risks for workers in a sample (but real) facility on the Hanford site are estimated for a time period of twenty years and are based on workforce predictions. This is the first step in developing a more complex model that will incorporate other modifying factors related to the workers, work environment and status of the ISM system to adjust the preliminary prediction.

  7. Global Building Inventory for Earthquake Loss Estimation and Risk Management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David; Porter, Keith

    2010-01-01

    We develop a global database of building inventories using taxonomy of global building types for use in near-real-time post-earthquake loss estimation and pre-earthquake risk analysis, for the U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program. The database is available for public use, subject to peer review, scrutiny, and open enhancement. On a country-by-country level, it contains estimates of the distribution of building types categorized by material, lateral force resisting system, and occupancy type (residential or nonresidential, urban or rural). The database draws on and harmonizes numerous sources: (1) UN statistics, (2) UN Habitat’s demographic and health survey (DHS) database, (3) national housing censuses, (4) the World Housing Encyclopedia and (5) other literature.

  8. Absolute airborne gravimetry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baumann, Henri

    This work consists of a feasibility study of a first stage prototype airborne absolute gravimeter system. In contrast to relative systems, which are using spring gravimeters, the measurements acquired by absolute systems are uncorrelated and the instrument is not suffering from problems like instrumental drift, frequency response of the spring and possible variation of the calibration factor. The major problem we had to resolve were to reduce the influence of the non-gravitational accelerations included in the measurements. We studied two different approaches to resolve it: direct mechanical filtering, and post-processing digital compensation. The first part of the work describes in detail the different mechanical passive filters of vibrations, which were studied and tested in the laboratory and later in a small truck in movement. For these tests as well as for the airborne measurements an absolute gravimeter FG5-L from Micro-G Ltd was used together with an Inertial navigation system Litton-200, a vertical accelerometer EpiSensor, and GPS receivers for positioning. These tests showed that only the use of an optical table gives acceptable results. However, it is unable to compensate for the effects of the accelerations of the drag free chamber. The second part describes the strategy of the data processing. It is based on modeling the perturbing accelerations by means of GPS, EpiSensor and INS data. In the third part the airborne experiment is described in detail, from the mounting in the aircraft and data processing to the different problems encountered during the evaluation of the quality and accuracy of the results. In the part of data processing the different steps conducted from the raw apparent gravity data and the trajectories to the estimation of the true gravity are explained. A comparison between the estimated airborne data and those obtained by ground upward continuation at flight altitude allows to state that airborne absolute gravimetry is feasible and

  9. BACKGROUND RADIATION MEASUREMENTS AND CANCER RISK ESTIMATES FOR SEBINKARAHISAR, TURKEY.

    PubMed

    Kurnaz, Asli

    2013-07-19

    This paper presents the measurement results of environmental radioactivity levels for Şebinkarahisar district (uranium-thorium area), Giresun, Turkey. The radioactivity concentrations of (238)U, (232)Th, (40)K and the fission product (137)Cs in soil samples collected from 73 regions from the surroundings of the study area were determined. In situ measurements of the gamma dose rate in air were performed in the same 73 locations where the soil samples were collected using a portable NaI detector. Also the mean radioactivity concentrations of (238)U, (232)Th and (40)K in rock samples collected from 50 regions were determined. The mean estimated cancer risk value was found. The seasonal variations of the indoor radon activity concentrations were determined in the 30 dwellings in the study area. In addition, the mean gross alpha, gross beta and radon activities in tap water samples were determined in the same 30 dwellings. The excess lifetime cancer risk was calculated using the risk factors of International Commission on Radiological Protection and Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation. Radiological maps of the Şebinkarahisar region were composed using the results obtained from this study.

  10. Risking Life and Limb: Estimating a Measure of Medical Care Economic Risk and Considering its Implications.

    PubMed

    Abramowitz, Joelle; O'Hara, Brett; Morris, Darcy Steeg

    2017-04-01

    This paper considers the risk of incurring future medical expenditures in light of a family's resources available to pay for those expenditures as well as their choice of health insurance. We model non-premium medical out-of-pocket expenditures and use the estimates from our model to develop a prospective measure of medical care economic risk estimating the proportion of families who are at risk of incurring high non-premium out-of-pocket medical care expenses in relation to its resources. We further use the estimates from our model to compare the extent to which different types of insurance mitigate the risk of incurring non-premium expenditures by providing for increased utilization of medical care. We find that while 21.3% of families lack the resources to pay for the median expenditures for their insurance type, 42.4% lack the resources to pay for the 99(th) percentile of expenditures for their insurance type. We also find the mediating effect of insurance on non-premium expenditures to outweigh the associated premium expense for expenditures above $1804 for employer-sponsored insurance and $4337 for direct purchase insurance for those younger than age 65; and above $12 118 of expenditures for Medicare supplementary plans for those aged 65 or older. Published 2016. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  11. Teaching Absolute Value Meaningfully

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wade, Angela

    2012-01-01

    What is the meaning of absolute value? And why do teachers teach students how to solve absolute value equations? Absolute value is a concept introduced in first-year algebra and then reinforced in later courses. Various authors have suggested instructional methods for teaching absolute value to high school students (Wei 2005; Stallings-Roberts…

  12. Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide—An Overview

    PubMed Central

    Madsen, Trine; Erlangsen, Annette; Nordentoft, Merete

    2017-01-01

    People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during admission. Most studies are based on low power, thus compromising quality and generalisability. The few studies with sufficient statistical power mainly identified non-modifiable risk predictors such as male gender, diagnosis, or recent deliberate self-harm. Also, the predictive value of these predictors is low. It would be of great benefit if future studies would be based on large samples while focusing on modifiable predictors over the course of an admission, such as hopelessness, depressive symptoms, and family/social situations. This would improve our chances of developing better risk assessment tools. PMID:28257103

  13. Risk Estimates and Risk Factors Related to Psychiatric Inpatient Suicide-An Overview.

    PubMed

    Madsen, Trine; Erlangsen, Annette; Nordentoft, Merete

    2017-03-02

    People with mental illness have an increased risk of suicide. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of suicide risk estimates among psychiatric inpatients based on the body of evidence found in scientific peer-reviewed literature; primarily focusing on the relative risks, rates, time trends, and socio-demographic and clinical risk factors of suicide in psychiatric inpatients. Psychiatric inpatients have a very high risk of suicide relative to the background population, but it remains challenging for clinicians to identify those patients that are most likely to die from suicide during admission. Most studies are based on low power, thus compromising quality and generalisability. The few studies with sufficient statistical power mainly identified non-modifiable risk predictors such as male gender, diagnosis, or recent deliberate self-harm. Also, the predictive value of these predictors is low. It would be of great benefit if future studies would be based on large samples while focusing on modifiable predictors over the course of an admission, such as hopelessness, depressive symptoms, and family/social situations. This would improve our chances of developing better risk assessment tools.

  14. Declining bioavailability and inappropriate estimation of risk of persistent compounds

    SciTech Connect

    Kelsey, J.W.; Alexander, M.

    1997-03-01

    Earthworms (Eisenia foetida) assimilated decreasing amounts of atrazine, phenanthrene, and naphthalene that had been incubated for increasing periods of time in sterile soil. The amount of atrazine and phenanthrene removed from soil by mild extractants also decreased with time. The declines in bioavailability of the three compounds to earthworms and of naphthalene to bacteria were not reflected by analysis involving vigorous methods of solvent extraction; similar results for bioavailability of phenanthrene and 4-nitrophenol to bacteria were obtained in a previous study conducted at this laboratory. The authors suggest that regulations based on vigorous extractions for the analyses of persistent organic pollutants in soil do not appropriately estimate exposure or risk to susceptible populations.

  15. Model stimulations to estimate malaria risk under climate change.

    PubMed

    Jetten, T H; Martens, W J; Takken, W

    1996-05-01

    The current geographic range of malaria is much smaller than its potential range. In many regions there exists a phenomena characterized as "Anophelism without malaria." The vectors are present but malaria transmission does not occur. Vectorial capacity often has been used as a parameter to estimate the susceptibility of an area to malaria. Model computations with global climatological data show that a dynamic concept of vectorial capacity can be used as a comparative risk indicator to predict the current extent and distribution of malarious regions in the world. A sensitivity analysis done in 3 distinct geographic areas shows that the areas of largest change of epidemic potential caused by a temperature increase are those where mosquitoes already occur but where development of the parasite is limited by temperature. Computations with the model presented here predict, with different climate scenarios, an increased malaria risk in areas bordering malaria endemic regions and at higher altitudes within malarious regions under a temperature increase of 2-4 degrees C.

  16. Gambling disorder: estimated prevalence rates and risk factors in Macao.

    PubMed

    Wu, Anise M S; Lai, Mark H C; Tong, Kwok-Kit

    2014-12-01

    An excessive, problematic gambling pattern has been regarded as a mental disorder in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual for Mental Disorders (DSM) for more than 3 decades (American Psychiatric Association [APA], 1980). In this study, its latest prevalence in Macao (one of very few cities with legalized gambling in China and the Far East) was estimated with 2 major changes in the diagnostic criteria, suggested by the 5th edition of DSM (APA, 2013): (a) removing the "Illegal Act" criterion, and (b) lowering the threshold for diagnosis. A random, representative sample of 1,018 Macao residents was surveyed with a phone poll design in January 2013. After the 2 changes were adopted, the present study showed that the estimated prevalence rate of gambling disorder was 2.1% of the Macao adult population. Moreover, the present findings also provided empirical support to the application of these 2 recommended changes when assessing symptoms of gambling disorder among Chinese community adults. Personal risk factors of gambling disorder, namely being male, having low education, a preference for casino gambling, as well as high materialism, were identified.

  17. From mechanisms to risk estimation--bridging the chasm.

    PubMed

    Curtis, S B; Hazelton, W D; Luebeck, E G; Moolgavkar, S H

    2004-01-01

    We have a considerable amount of work ahead of us to determine the importance of the wealth of new information emerging in the fields of sub-cellular, cellular and tissue biology in order to improve the estimation of radiation risk at low dose and protracted dose-rate. In this paper, we suggest that there is a need to develop models of the specific health effects of interest (e.g., carcinogenesis in specific tissues), which embody as much of the mechanistic (i.e., biological) information as is deemed necessary. Although it is not realistic to expect that every radiation-induced process should or could be included, we can hope that the major factors that shape the time dependence of evolution of damage can be identified and quantified to the point where reasonable estimations of risk can be made. Regarding carcinogenesis in particular, the structure of the model itself plays a role in determining the relative importance of various processes. We use a specific form of a multi-stage carcinogenic model to illustrate this point. We show in a review of the application of this model to lung cancer incidence and mortality in two exposed populations that for both high- and low-LET radiation, there is evidence of an "inverse dose-rate" or protraction effect. This result could be of some considerable importance, because it would imply that risk from protracted exposure even to low-LET radiation might be greater than from acute exposure, an opinion not currently held in the radiation protection community. This model also allows prediction of the evolution of the risk over the lifetimes of the exposed individuals. One inference is that radiation-induced initiation (i.e., the first cellular carcinogenic event(s) occurring in normal tissue after the passage of the radiation) may not be the driving factor in the risk, but more important may be the effects of the radiation on already-initiated cells in the tissue. Although present throughout the length of the exposure, radiation

  18. Absolute-structure reports.

    PubMed

    Flack, Howard D

    2013-08-01

    All the 139 noncentrosymmetric crystal structures published in Acta Crystallographica Section C between January 2011 and November 2012 inclusive have been used as the basis of a detailed study of the reporting of absolute structure. These structure determinations cover a wide range of space groups, chemical composition and resonant-scattering contribution. Defining A and D as the average and difference of the intensities of Friedel opposites, their level of fit has been examined using 2AD and selected-D plots. It was found, regardless of the expected resonant-scattering contribution to Friedel opposites, that the Friedel-difference intensities are often dominated by random uncertainty and systematic error. An analysis of data collection strategy is provided. It is found that crystal-structure determinations resulting in a Flack parameter close to 0.5 may not necessarily be from crystals twinned by inversion. Friedifstat is shown to be a robust estimator of the resonant-scattering contribution to Friedel opposites, very little affected by the particular space group of a structure nor by the occupation of special positions. There is considerable confusion in the text of papers presenting achiral noncentrosymmetric crystal structures. Recommendations are provided for the optimal way of treating noncentrosymmetric crystal structures for which the experimenter has no interest in determining the absolute structure.

  19. Personalized Risk Estimator for Rheumatoid Arthritis (PRE-RA) Family Study: rationale and design for a randomized controlled trial evaluating rheumatoid arthritis risk education to first-degree relatives.

    PubMed

    Sparks, Jeffrey A; Iversen, Maura D; Miller Kroouze, Rachel; Mahmoud, Taysir G; Triedman, Nellie A; Kalia, Sarah S; Atkinson, Michael L; Lu, Bing; Deane, Kevin D; Costenbader, Karen H; Green, Robert C; Karlson, Elizabeth W

    2014-09-01

    We present the rationale, design features, and protocol of the Personalized Risk Estimator for Rheumatoid Arthritis (PRE-RA) Family Study (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02046005). The PRE-RA Family Study is an NIH-funded prospective, randomized controlled trial designed to compare the willingness to change behaviors in first-degree relatives of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients without RA after exposure to RA risk educational programs. Consented subjects are randomized to receive education concerning their personalized RA risk based on demographics, RA-associated behaviors, genetics, and biomarkers or to receive standard RA information. Four behavioral factors associated with RA risk were identified from prior studies for inclusion in the risk estimate: cigarette smoking, excess body weight, poor oral health, and low fish intake. Personalized RA risk information is presented through an online tool that collects data on an individual's specific age, gender, family history, and risk-related behaviors; presents genetic and biomarker results; displays relative and absolute risk of RA; and provides personalized feedback and education. The trial outcomes will be changes in willingness to alter behaviors from baseline to 6 weeks, 6 months, and 12 months in the three intervention groups. The design and the execution of this trial that targets a special population at risk for RA, while incorporating varied risk factors into a single risk tool, offer distinct challenges. We provide the theoretical rationale for the PRE-RA Family Study and highlight particular design features of this trial that utilize personalized risk education as an intervention.

  20. Soil-ecological risks for soil degradation estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trifonova, Tatiana; Shirkin, Leonid; Kust, German; Andreeva, Olga

    2016-04-01

    Soil degradation includes the processes of soil properties and quality worsening, primarily from the point of view of their productivity and decrease of ecosystem services quality. Complete soil cover destruction and/or functioning termination of soil forms of organic life are considered as extreme stages of soil degradation, and for the fragile ecosystems they are normally considered in the network of their desertification, land degradation and droughts /DLDD/ concept. Block-model of ecotoxic effects, generating soil and ecosystem degradation, has been developed as a result of the long-term field and laboratory research of sod-podzol soils, contaminated with waste, containing heavy metals. The model highlights soil degradation mechanisms, caused by direct and indirect impact of ecotoxicants on "phytocenosis- soil" system and their combination, frequently causing synergistic effect. The sequence of occurring changes here can be formalized as a theory of change (succession of interrelated events). Several stages are distinguished here - from heavy metals leaching (releasing) in waste and their migration downward the soil profile to phytoproductivity decrease and certain phytocenosis composition changes. Phytoproductivity decrease leads to the reduction of cellulose content introduced into the soil. The described feedback mechanism acts as a factor of sod-podzolic soil self-purification and stability. It has been shown, that using phytomass productivity index, integrally reflecting the worsening of soil properties complex, it is possible to solve the problems dealing with the dose-reflecting reactions creation and determination of critical levels of load for phytocenosis and corresponding soil-ecological risks. Soil-ecological risk in "phytocenosis- soil" system means probable negative changes and the loss of some ecosystem functions during the transformation process of dead organic substance energy for the new biomass composition. Soil-ecological risks estimation is

  1. Absolute transition probabilities of phosphorus.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Miller, M. H.; Roig, R. A.; Bengtson, R. D.

    1971-01-01

    Use of a gas-driven shock tube to measure the absolute strengths of 21 P I lines and 126 P II lines (from 3300 to 6900 A). Accuracy for prominent, isolated neutral and ionic lines is estimated to be 28 to 40% and 18 to 30%, respectively. The data and the corresponding theoretical predictions are examined for conformity with the sum rules.-

  2. R2 TRI facilities with 1999-2011 risk related estimates throughout the census blockgroup

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This dataset delineates the distribution of estimate risk from the TRI facilities for 1999 - 2011 throughout the census blockgroup of the region using Office of Pollution, Prevention & Toxics (OPPT)'s Risk-Screening Environmental Indicators model (RSEI). The model uses the reported quantities of TRI releases of chemicals to estimate the impacts associated with each type of air release or transfer by every TRI facility.The RSEI was run to generate the estimate risk for each TRI facility in the region. The result from the model is joined to the TRI spatial data. Estimate risk values for each census block group were calculated based on the inverse distance of all the facilities which are within a 50 km radius of the census block group centroid. The estimate risk value for each census block group thus is an aggregated value that takes into account the estimate potential risk of all the facilities within the searching radius (50km).

  3. Methodology for the Model-based Small Area Estimates of Cancer Risk Factors and Screening Behaviors - Small Area Estimates

    Cancer.gov

    This model-based approach uses data from both the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) to produce estimates of the prevalence rates of cancer risk factors and screening behaviors at the state, health service area, and county levels.

  4. The role of models in estimating consequences as part of the risk assessment process.

    PubMed

    Forde-Folle, K; Mitchell, D; Zepeda, C

    2011-08-01

    The degree of disease risk represented by the introduction, spread, or establishment of one or several diseases through the importation of animals and animal products is assessed by importing countries through an analysis of risk. The components of a risk analysis include hazard identification, risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication. A risk assessment starts with identification of the hazard(s) and then continues with four interrelated steps: release assessment, exposure assessment, consequence assessment, and risk estimation. Risk assessments may be either qualitative or quantitative. This paper describes how, through the integration of epidemiological and economic models, the potential adverse biological and economic consequences of exposure can be quantified.

  5. Comparing self-perceived and estimated fracture risk by FRAX® of women with osteoporosis.

    PubMed

    Baji, Petra; Gulácsi, László; Horváth, Csaba; Brodszky, Valentin; Rencz, Fanni; Péntek, Márta

    2017-12-01

    In this study, we compared subjective fracture risks of Hungarian women with osteoporosis to FRAX®-based estimates. Patients with a previous fracture, parental hip fracture, low femoral T-score, higher age, and higher BMI were more likely to underestimate their risks. Patients also failed to associate risk factors with an increased risk of fractures.

  6. Risk Estimates From an Online Risk Calculator Are More Believable and Recalled Better When Expressed as Integers

    PubMed Central

    Zikmund-Fisher, Brian J; Waters, Erika A; Gavaruzzi, Teresa; Fagerlin, Angela

    2011-01-01

    Background Online risk calculators offer different levels of precision in their risk estimates. People interpret numbers in varying ways depending on how they are presented, and we do not know how the number of decimal places displayed might influence perceptions of risk estimates. Objective The objective of our study was to determine whether precision (ie, number of decimals) in risk estimates offered by an online risk calculator influences users’ ratings of (1) how believable the estimate is, (2) risk magnitude (ie, how large or small the risk feels to them), and (3) how well they can recall the risk estimate after a brief delay. Methods We developed two mock risk calculator websites that offered hypothetical percentage estimates of participants’ lifetime risk of kidney cancer. Participants were randomly assigned to a condition where the risk estimate value rose with increasing precision (2, 2.1, 2.13, 2.133) or the risk estimate value fell with increasing precision (2, 1.9, 1.87, 1.867). Within each group, participants were randomly assigned one of the four numbers as their first risk estimate, and later received one of the remaining three as a comparison. Results Participants who completed the experiment (N = 3422) were a demographically diverse online sample, approximately representative of the US adult population on age, gender, and race. Participants whose risk estimates had no decimal places gave the highest ratings of believability (F 3,3384 = 2.94, P = .03) and the lowest ratings of risk magnitude (F 3,3384 = 4.70, P = .003). Compared to estimates with decimal places, integer estimates were judged as highly believable by 7%–10% more participants (χ2 3 =17.8, P < .001). When comparing two risk estimates with different levels of precision, large majorities of participants reported that the numbers seemed equivalent across all measures. Both exact and approximate recall were highest for estimates with zero decimals. Odds ratios (OR) for correct

  7. Cancer risk estimation caused by radiation exposure during endovascular procedure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kang, Y. H.; Cho, J. H.; Yun, W. S.; Park, K. H.; Kim, H. G.; Kwon, S. M.

    2014-05-01

    The objective of this study was to identify the radiation exposure dose of patients, as well as staff caused by fluoroscopy for C-arm-assisted vascular surgical operation and to estimate carcinogenic risk due to such exposure dose. The study was conducted in 71 patients (53 men and 18 women) who had undergone vascular surgical intervention at the division of vascular surgery in the University Hospital from November of 2011 to April of 2012. It had used a mobile C-arm device and calculated the radiation exposure dose of patient (dose-area product, DAP). Effective dose was measured by attaching optically stimulated luminescence on the radiation protectors of staff who participates in the surgery to measure the radiation exposure dose of staff during the vascular surgical operation. From the study results, DAP value of patients was 308.7 Gy cm2 in average, and the maximum value was 3085 Gy cm2. When converted to the effective dose, the resulted mean was 6.2 m Gy and the maximum effective dose was 61.7 milliSievert (mSv). The effective dose of staff was 3.85 mSv; while the radiation technician was 1.04 mSv, the nurse was 1.31 mSv. All cancer incidences of operator are corresponding to 2355 persons per 100,000 persons, which deemed 1 of 42 persons is likely to have all cancer incidences. In conclusion, the vascular surgeons should keep the radiation protection for patient, staff, and all participants in the intervention in mind as supervisor of fluoroscopy while trying to understand the effects by radiation by themselves to prevent invisible danger during the intervention and to minimize the harm.

  8. Latent-failure risk estimates for computer control

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dunn, William R.; Folsom, Rolfe A.; Green, Owen R.

    1991-01-01

    It is shown that critical computer controls employing unmonitored safety circuits are unsafe. Analysis supporting this result leads to two additional, important conclusions: (1) annual maintenance checks of safety circuit function do not, as widely believed, eliminate latent failure risk; (2) safety risk remains even if multiple, series-connected protection circuits are employed. Finally, it is shown analytically that latent failure risk is eliminated when continuous monitoring is employed.

  9. Absolute nuclear material assay

    DOEpatents

    Prasad, Manoj K [Pleasanton, CA; Snyderman, Neal J [Berkeley, CA; Rowland, Mark S [Alamo, CA

    2012-05-15

    A method of absolute nuclear material assay of an unknown source comprising counting neutrons from the unknown source and providing an absolute nuclear material assay utilizing a model to optimally compare to the measured count distributions. In one embodiment, the step of providing an absolute nuclear material assay comprises utilizing a random sampling of analytically computed fission chain distributions to generate a continuous time-evolving sequence of event-counts by spreading the fission chain distribution in time.

  10. Absolute nuclear material assay

    DOEpatents

    Prasad, Manoj K.; Snyderman, Neal J.; Rowland, Mark S.

    2010-07-13

    A method of absolute nuclear material assay of an unknown source comprising counting neutrons from the unknown source and providing an absolute nuclear material assay utilizing a model to optimally compare to the measured count distributions. In one embodiment, the step of providing an absolute nuclear material assay comprises utilizing a random sampling of analytically computed fission chain distributions to generate a continuous time-evolving sequence of event-counts by spreading the fission chain distribution in time.

  11. Minimum Expected Risk Estimation for Near-neighbor Classification

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-04-01

    can be interpreted within an estimation framework proposed by Carnap in 1952. Although Carnap’s views were not Bayesian, he proposed a general...279]. Carnap noted that there were two extremes to the multinomial estimation problem ( Carnap and Jaynes both gave binomial examples, but their logic... Carnap refers to as a logical factor, which corresponds to an uninformed guess, such as the estimate θ̂g = 1/G. Carnap noted that experts in his time

  12. Optomechanics for absolute rotation detection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davuluri, Sankar

    2016-07-01

    In this article, we present an application of optomechanical cavity for the absolute rotation detection. The optomechanical cavity is arranged in a Michelson interferometer in such a way that the classical centrifugal force due to rotation changes the length of the optomechanical cavity. The change in the cavity length induces a shift in the frequency of the cavity mode. The phase shift corresponding to the frequency shift in the cavity mode is measured at the interferometer output to estimate the angular velocity of absolute rotation. We derived an analytic expression to estimate the minimum detectable rotation rate in our scheme for a given optomechanical cavity. Temperature dependence of the rotation detection sensitivity is studied.

  13. Assessment of Methods for Estimating Risk to Birds from Ingestion of Contaminated Grit Particles (Final Report)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The U.S. EPA Ecological Risk Assessment Support Center (ERASC) announced the release of the final report entitled, Assessment of Methods for Estimating Risk to Birds from Ingestion of Contaminated Grit Particles. This report evaluates approaches for estimating the probabi...

  14. CCSI Risk Estimation: An Application of Expert Elicitation

    SciTech Connect

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.

    2012-10-01

    The Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI) is a multi-laboratory simulation-driven effort to develop carbon capture technologies with the goal of accelerating commercialization and adoption in the near future. One of the key CCSI technical challenges is representing and quantifying the inherent uncertainty and risks associated with developing, testing, and deploying the technology in simulated and real operational settings. To address this challenge, the CCSI Element 7 team developed a holistic risk analysis and decision-making framework. The purpose of this report is to document the CCSI Element 7 structured systematic expert elicitation to identify additional risk factors. We review the significance of and established approaches to expert elicitation, describe the CCSI risk elicitation plan and implementation strategies, and conclude by discussing the next steps and highlighting the contribution of risk elicitation toward the achievement of the overarching CCSI objectives.

  15. Do We Know Whether Researchers and Reviewers are Estimating Risk and Benefit Accurately?

    PubMed

    Hey, Spencer Phillips; Kimmelman, Jonathan

    2016-10-01

    Accurate estimation of risk and benefit is integral to good clinical research planning, ethical review, and study implementation. Some commentators have argued that various actors in clinical research systems are prone to biased or arbitrary risk/benefit estimation. In this commentary, we suggest the evidence supporting such claims is very limited. Most prior work has imputed risk/benefit beliefs based on past behavior or goals, rather than directly measuring them. We describe an approach - forecast analysis - that would enable direct and effective measure of the quality of risk/benefit estimation. We then consider some objections and limitations to the forecasting approach.

  16. Estimation of the Disease Burden Attributable to 11 Risk Factors in Hubei Province, China: A Comparative Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Cui, Fangfang; Zhang, Lan; Yu, Chuanhua; Hu, Songbo; Zhang, Yunquan

    2016-01-01

    In order to estimate the health losses caused by common risk factors in the Hubei province, China, we calculated the deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to 11 risk factors. We estimated the exposure distributions of risk factors in Hubei Province in 2013 from the monitoring system on chronic disease and related risk factors, combined with relative risk (RR) in order to calculate the population attributable fraction. Deaths and DALYs attributed to the selected risk factors were then estimated together with cause-specific deaths and DALYs. In total, 53.39% of the total deaths and 36.23% of the total DALYs in Hubei were a result of the 11 selected risk factors. The top five risk factors were high blood pressure, smoking, high body mass index, diet low in fruits and alcohol use, accounting for 14.68%, 12.57%, 6.03%, 3.90% and 3.19% of total deaths, respectively, and 9.41%, 7.22%, 4.42%, 2.51% and 2.44% of total DALYs, respectively. These risk factors, especially high blood pressure, smoking and high body mass index, significantly influenced quality of life, causing a large number of deaths and DALYs. The burden of chronic disease could be substantially reduced if these risk factors were effectively controlled, which would allow people to enjoy healthier lives. PMID:27669279

  17. What's the Risk? A Simple Approach for Estimating Adjusted Risk Measures from Nonlinear Models Including Logistic Regression

    PubMed Central

    Kleinman, Lawrence C; Norton, Edward C

    2009-01-01

    Objective To develop and validate a general method (called regression risk analysis) to estimate adjusted risk measures from logistic and other nonlinear multiple regression models. We show how to estimate standard errors for these estimates. These measures could supplant various approximations (e.g., adjusted odds ratio [AOR]) that may diverge, especially when outcomes are common. Study Design Regression risk analysis estimates were compared with internal standards as well as with Mantel–Haenszel estimates, Poisson and log-binomial regressions, and a widely used (but flawed) equation to calculate adjusted risk ratios (ARR) from AOR. Data Collection Data sets produced using Monte Carlo simulations. Principal Findings Regression risk analysis accurately estimates ARR and differences directly from multiple regression models, even when confounders are continuous, distributions are skewed, outcomes are common, and effect size is large. It is statistically sound and intuitive, and has properties favoring it over other methods in many cases. Conclusions Regression risk analysis should be the new standard for presenting findings from multiple regression analysis of dichotomous outcomes for cross-sectional, cohort, and population-based case–control studies, particularly when outcomes are common or effect size is large. PMID:18793213

  18. Biomechanical Risk Estimates for Mild Traumatic Brain Injury

    PubMed Central

    Funk, J. R.; Duma, S. M.; Manoogian, S. J.; Rowson, S.

    2007-01-01

    The objective of this study was to characterize the risk of mild traumatic brain injury (MTBI) in living humans based on a large set of head impact data taken from American football players at the collegiate level. Real-time head accelerations were recorded from helmet-mounted accelerometers designed to stay in contact with the player’s head. Over 27,000 head impacts were recorded, including four impacts resulting in MTBI. Parametric risk curves were developed by normalizing MTBI incidence data by head impact exposure data. An important finding of this research is that living humans, at least in the setting of collegiate football, sustain much more significant head impacts without apparent injury than previously thought. The following preliminary nominal injury assessment reference values associated with a 10% risk of MTBI are proposed: a peak linear head acceleration of 165 g, a HIC of 400, and a peak angular head acceleration of 9000 rad/s2. PMID:18184501

  19. Probabilistic methodology for estimating radiation-induced cancer risk

    SciTech Connect

    Dunning, D.E. Jr.; Leggett, R.W.; Williams, L.R.

    1981-01-01

    The RICRAC computer code was developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory to provide a versatile and convenient methodology for radiation risk assessment. The code allows as input essentially any dose pattern commonly encountered in risk assessments for either acute or chronic exposures, and it includes consideration of the age structure of the exposed population. Results produced by the analysis include the probability of one or more radiation-induced cancer deaths in a specified population, expected numbers of deaths, and expected years of life lost as a result of premature fatalities. These calculatons include consideration of competing risks of death from all other causes. The program also generates a probability frequency distribution of the expected number of cancers in any specified cohort resulting from a given radiation dose. The methods may be applied to any specified population and dose scenario.

  20. Estimating the standardized mean difference with minimum risk: Maximizing accuracy and minimizing cost with sequential estimation.

    PubMed

    Chattopadhyay, Bhargab; Kelley, Ken

    2017-03-01

    The standardized mean difference is a widely used effect size measure. In this article, we develop a general theory for estimating the population standardized mean difference by minimizing both the mean square error of the estimator and the total sampling cost. Fixed sample size methods, when sample size is planned before the start of a study, cannot simultaneously minimize both the mean square error of the estimator and the total sampling cost. To overcome this limitation of the current state of affairs, this article develops a purely sequential sampling procedure, which provides an estimate of the sample size required to achieve a sufficiently accurate estimate with minimum expected sampling cost. Performance of the purely sequential procedure is examined via a simulation study to show that our analytic developments are highly accurate. Additionally, we provide freely available functions in R to implement the algorithm of the purely sequential procedure. (PsycINFO Database Record

  1. Estimate of the risk of radiation-induced cancers after linear-accelerator-based breast-cancer radiotherapy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koh, Eui Kwan; Seo, Jungju; Baek, Tae Seong; Chung, Eun Ji; Yoon, Myonggeun; Lee, Hyun-ho

    2013-07-01

    The aim of this study is to assess and compare the excess absolute risks (EARs) of radiation-induced cancers following conformal (3D-CRT), fixed-field intensity-modulated (IMRT) and volumetric modulated arc (RapidArc) radiation therapy in patients with breast cancer. 3D-CRT, IMRT and RapidArc were planned for 10 breast cancer patients. The organ-specific EAR for cancer induction was estimated using the organ equivalent dose (OED) based on computed dose volume histograms (DVHs) and the secondary doses measured at various points from the field edge. The average secondary dose per Gy treatment dose from 3D-CRT, measured 10 to 50 cm from the field edge, ranged from 8.27 to 1.04 mGy. The secondary doses per Gy from IMRT and RapidArc, however, ranged between 5.86 and 0.54 mGy, indicating that IMRT and RapidArc are associated with smaller doses of secondary radiation than 3D-CRT. The organ specific EARs for out-of-field organs, such as the thyroid, liver and colon, were higher with 3D-CRT than with IMRT or RapidArc. In contrast, EARs for in-field organs were much lower with 3D-CRT than with IMRT or RapidArc. The overall estimate of EAR indicated that the radiation-induced cancer risk was 1.8-2.0 times lower with 3D-CRT than with IMRT or RapidArc. Comparisons of EARs during breast irradiation suggested that the predicted risk of secondary cancers was lower with 3D-CRT than with IMRT or RapidArc.

  2. Whole effluent risk estimation for a small recipient watercourse.

    PubMed

    Refaey, Maha; Kováts, Nóra; Kárpáti, A; Thury, P

    2009-09-01

    Whole effluent toxicity is most often considered as a static parameter. However, toxicity might change as degradation processes, especially biodegradation goes by and intermediate products appear. These intermediates can even be more toxic than the original effluent was, posing higher risk to the ecosystem of the recipient water body. In our test series it was assessed how toxicity of a municipal wastewater sample changes during biodegradation taking into consideration different temperature regimes (10, 20 and 30 degrees C). Results proved our null hypothesis: after the high initial toxicity of the fresh effluent sample toxicity did show a further increase. Biodegradation resulted in toxicity reduction only after an approx. 2 week-period.

  3. Estimation of the burden of cardiovascular disease attributable to modifiable risk factors and cost-effectiveness analysis of preventative interventions to reduce this burden in Argentina

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the primary cause of mortality and morbidity in Argentina representing 34.2% of deaths and 12.6% of potential years of life lost (PYLL). The aim of the study was to estimate the burden of acute coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke and the cost-effectiveness of preventative population-based and clinical interventions. Methods An epidemiological model was built incorporating prevalence and distribution of high blood pressure, high cholesterol, hyperglycemia, overweight and obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity, obtained from the Argentine Survey of Risk Factors dataset. Population Attributable Fraction (PAF) of each risk factor was estimated using relative risks from international sources. Total fatal and non-fatal events, PYLL and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALY) were estimated. Costs of event were calculated from local utilization databases and expressed in international dollars (I$). Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) were estimated for six interventions: reducing salt in bread, mass media campaign to promote tobacco cessation, pharmacological therapy of high blood pressure, pharmacological therapy of high cholesterol, tobacco cessation therapy with bupropion, and a multidrug strategy for people with an estimated absolute risk > 20% in 10 years. Results An estimated total of 611,635 DALY was lost due to acute CHD and stroke for 2005. Modifiable risk factors explained 71.1% of DALY and more than 80% of events. Two interventions were cost-saving: lowering salt intake in the population through reducing salt in bread and multidrug therapy targeted to persons with an absolute risk above 20% in 10 years; three interventions had very acceptable ICERs: drug therapy for high blood pressure in hypertensive patients not yet undergoing treatment (I$ 2,908 per DALY saved), mass media campaign to promote tobacco cessation amongst smokers (I$ 3,186 per DALY saved), and lowering cholesterol with statin drug therapy

  4. How are flood risk estimates affected by the choice of return-periods?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ward, P. J.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; De Moel, H.; Poussin, J. K.

    2012-04-01

    Flood management is more and more adopting a risk based approach, whereby flood risk is the product of the probability and consequences of flooding. One of the most common approaches in flood risk assessment is to estimate the damage that would occur for floods of several exceedance probabilities (or return periods), to plot these on an exceedance probability-loss curve (risk curve) and to estimate risk as the area under the curve. However, there is little insight into how the selection of the return-periods (which ones and how many) used to calculate risk actually affects the final risk calculation. To gain such insights, we developed and validated an inundation model capable of rapidly simulating inundation extent and depth, and dynamically coupled this to an existing damage model. The method was applied to a section of the River Meuse in the southeast of the Netherlands. Firstly, we estimated risk based on a risk curve using yearly return periods from 2 to 10 000 yr (€ 34 million p.a.). We found that the overall risk is greatly affected by the number of return periods used to construct the risk curve, with over-estimations of annual risk between 33% and 100% when only three return periods are used. Also, the final risk estimate is greatly dependent on the minimum and maximum return periods (and their associated damages) used in the construction of the risk curve. In addition, binary assumptions on dike failure can have a large effect (a factor two difference) on risk estimates. The results suggest that more research is needed to develop relatively simple inundation models that can be used to produce large numbers of inundation maps, complementary to more complex 2D-3D hydrodynamic models. We then used the insights and models described above to assess the relative change in risk between current conditions and several scenarios of land use and climate change. For the case study region, we found that future land use change has a larger impact than future climate

  5. Assessing the risk of Legionnaires' disease: the inhalation exposure model and the estimated risk in residential bathrooms.

    PubMed

    Azuma, Kenichi; Uchiyama, Iwao; Okumura, Jiro

    2013-02-01

    Legionella are widely found in the built environment. Patients with Legionnaires' disease have been increasing in Japan; however, health risks from Legionella bacteria in the environment are not appropriately assessed. We performed a quantitative health risk assessment modeled on residential bathrooms in the Adachi outbreak area and estimated risk levels. The estimated risks in the Adachi outbreak approximately corresponded to the risk levels exponentially extrapolated into lower levels on the basis of infection and mortality rates calculated from actual outbreaks, suggesting that the model of Legionnaires' disease in residential bathrooms was adequate to predict disease risk for the evaluated outbreaks. Based on this model, the infection and mortality risk levels per year in 10 CFU/100 ml (100 CFU/L) of the Japanese water quality guideline value were approximately 10(-2) and 10(-5), respectively. However, acceptable risk levels of infection and mortality from Legionnaires' disease should be adjusted to approximately 10(-4) and 10(-7), respectively, per year. Therefore, a reference value of 0.1 CFU/100 ml (1 CFU/L) as a water quality guideline for Legionella bacteria is recommended. This value is occasionally less than the actual detection limit. Legionella levels in water system should be maintained as low as reasonably achievable (<1 CFU/L).

  6. Estimating successive cancer risks in Lynch Syndrome families using a progressive three-state model.

    PubMed

    Choi, Yun-Hee; Briollais, Laurent; Green, Jane; Parfrey, Patrick; Kopciuk, Karen

    2014-02-20

    Lynch Syndrome (LS) families harbor mutated mismatch repair genes,which predispose them to specific types of cancer. Because individuals within LS families can experience multiple cancers over their lifetime, we developed a progressive three-state model to estimate the disease risk from a healthy (state 0) to a first cancer (state 1) and then to a second cancer (state 2). Ascertainment correction of the likelihood was made to adjust for complex sampling designs with carrier probabilities for family members with missing genotype information estimated using their family's observed genotype and phenotype information in a one-step expectation-maximization algorithm. A sandwich variance estimator was employed to overcome possible model misspecification. The main objective of this paper is to estimate the disease risk (penetrance) for age at a second cancer after someone has experienced a first cancer that is also associated with a mutated gene. Simulation study results indicate that our approach generally provides unbiased risk estimates and low root mean squared errors across different family study designs, proportions of missing genotypes, and risk heterogeneities. An application to 12 large LS families from Newfoundland demonstrates that the risk for a second cancer was substantial and that the age at a first colorectal cancer significantly impacted the age at any LS subsequent cancer. This study provides new insights for developing more effective management of mutation carriers in LS families by providing more accurate multiple cancer risk estimates.

  7. Genome-based, mechanism-driven computational modeling of risks of ionizing radiation: The next frontier in genetic risk estimation?

    PubMed

    Sankaranarayanan, K; Nikjoo, H

    2015-01-01

    Research activity in the field of estimation of genetic risks of ionizing radiation to human populations started in the late 1940s and now appears to be passing through a plateau phase. This paper provides a background to the concepts, findings and methods of risk estimation that guided the field through the period of its growth to the beginning of the 21st century. It draws attention to several key facts: (a) thus far, genetic risk estimates have been made indirectly using mutation data collected in mouse radiation studies; (b) important uncertainties and unsolved problems remain, one notable example being that we still do not know the sensitivity of human female germ cells to radiation-induced mutations; and (c) the concept that dominated the field thus far, namely, that radiation exposures to germ cells can result in single gene diseases in the descendants of those exposed has been replaced by the concept that radiation exposure can cause DNA deletions, often involving more than one gene. Genetic risk estimation now encompasses work devoted to studies on DNA deletions induced in human germ cells, their expected frequencies, and phenotypes and associated clinical consequences in the progeny. We argue that the time is ripe to embark on a human genome-based, mechanism-driven, computational modeling of genetic risks of ionizing radiation, and we present a provisional framework for catalyzing research in the field in the 21st century.

  8. Bayesian Framework for Water Quality Model Uncertainty Estimation and Risk Management

    EPA Science Inventory

    A formal Bayesian methodology is presented for integrated model calibration and risk-based water quality management using Bayesian Monte Carlo simulation and maximum likelihood estimation (BMCML). The primary focus is on lucid integration of model calibration with risk-based wat...

  9. Estimating risks to aquatic life using quantile regression

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schmidt, Travis S.; Clements, William H.; Cade, Brian S.

    2012-01-01

    One of the primary goals of biological assessment is to assess whether contaminants or other stressors limit the ecological potential of running waters. It is important to interpret responses to contaminants relative to other environmental factors, but necessity or convenience limit quantification of all factors that influence ecological potential. In these situations, the concept of limiting factors is useful for data interpretation. We used quantile regression to measure risks to aquatic life exposed to metals by including all regression quantiles (τ  =  0.05–0.95, by increments of 0.05), not just the upper limit of density (e.g., 90th quantile). We measured population densities (individuals/0.1 m2) of 2 mayflies (Rhithrogena spp., Drunella spp.) and a caddisfly (Arctopsyche grandis), aqueous metal mixtures (Cd, Cu, Zn), and other limiting factors (basin area, site elevation, discharge, temperature) at 125 streams in Colorado. We used a model selection procedure to test which factor was most limiting to density. Arctopsyche grandis was limited by other factors, whereas metals limited most quantiles of density for the 2 mayflies. Metals reduced mayfly densities most at sites where other factors were not limiting. Where other factors were limiting, low mayfly densities were observed despite metal concentrations. Metals affected mayfly densities most at quantiles above the mean and not just at the upper limit of density. Risk models developed from quantile regression showed that mayfly densities observed at background metal concentrations are improbable when metal mixtures are at US Environmental Protection Agency criterion continuous concentrations. We conclude that metals limit potential density, not realized average density. The most obvious effects on mayfly populations were at upper quantiles and not mean density. Therefore, we suggest that policy developed from mean-based measures of effects may not be as useful as policy based on the concept of

  10. Risk estimation based on germ-cell mutations in animals.

    PubMed

    Favor, J

    1989-01-01

    The set of mouse germ cell mutation rate results following spermatogonial exposure to high dose rate irradiation have been presented as the most relevant experimental results upon which to extrapolate the expected genetic risk of offspring of the survivors of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bombings. Results include mutation rates to recessive specific-locus, dominant cataract, protein-charge, and enzyme-activity alleles. The mutability as determined by the various genetic end points differed: the mutation rates to recessive specific-locus alleles and enzyme-activity alleles were similar and greater than the mutation rates to dominant cataract and protein-charge alleles. It is argued that the type of mutation event scored by a particular test will determine the mutability of the genetic end point screened. When the loss of functional gene product can be scored in a particular mutation test, as in the recessive specific-locus and enzyme-activity tests, a wide spectrum of DNA alterations may result in a loss of and a higher mutation rate is observed. When an altered gene product is scored, as in the dominant cataract and protein-charge tests, a narrower spectrum of DNA alterations is screened and a lower mutation rate is observed. The radiation doubling dose, defined as the dose that induces as many mutations as occur spontaneously per generation, was shown to be four times higher in the dominant cataract test than the specific-locus test. These results indicate that to extrapolate to genetic risks in humans using the doubling-dose method, the extrapolation must be based on experimental mutation rate results for the same genetic end point.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

  11. Absolute and relative blindsight.

    PubMed

    Balsdon, Tarryn; Azzopardi, Paul

    2015-03-01

    The concept of relative blindsight, referring to a difference in conscious awareness between conditions otherwise matched for performance, was introduced by Lau and Passingham (2006) as a way of identifying the neural correlates of consciousness (NCC) in fMRI experiments. By analogy, absolute blindsight refers to a difference between performance and awareness regardless of whether it is possible to match performance across conditions. Here, we address the question of whether relative and absolute blindsight in normal observers can be accounted for by response bias. In our replication of Lau and Passingham's experiment, the relative blindsight effect was abolished when performance was assessed by means of a bias-free 2AFC task or when the criterion for awareness was varied. Furthermore, there was no evidence of either relative or absolute blindsight when both performance and awareness were assessed with bias-free measures derived from confidence ratings using signal detection theory. This suggests that both relative and absolute blindsight in normal observers amount to no more than variations in response bias in the assessment of performance and awareness. Consideration of the properties of psychometric functions reveals a number of ways in which relative and absolute blindsight could arise trivially and elucidates a basis for the distinction between Type 1 and Type 2 blindsight.

  12. An update on standards for radiation in the environment and associated estimates of risk

    SciTech Connect

    Kocher, D.C.

    1989-06-21

    This presentation reviews current and proposed standards, recommendations, and guidances for limiting routine radiation exposures of the public, and estimates the risk corresponding to standards, recommendations, and guidances. These estimates provide a common basis for comparing different criteria for limiting public exposures to radiation, as well as hazardous chemicals.

  13. ASSESSMENT OF METHODS FOR ESTIMATING RISK TO BIRDS FROM INGESTION OF CONTAMINATED GRIT PARTICLES (FINAL REPORT)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The report evaluates approaches for estimating the probability of ingestion by birds of contaminated particles such as pesticide granules or lead particles (i.e. shot or bullet fragments). In addition, it presents an approach for using this information to estimate the risk of mo...

  14. REVIEW OF DRAFT REVISED BLUE BOOK ON ESTIMATING CANCER RISKS FROM EXPOSURE TO IONIZING RADIATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    In 1994, EPA published a report, referred to as the “Blue Book,” which lays out EPA’s current methodology for quantitatively estimating radiogenic cancer risks. A follow-on report made minor adjustments to the previous estimates and presented a partial analysis of the uncertainti...

  15. Estimating Toxicity Pathway Activating Doses for High Throughput Chemical Risk Assessments

    EPA Science Inventory

    Estimating a Toxicity Pathway Activating Dose (TPAD) from in vitro assays as an analog to a reference dose (RfD) derived from in vivo toxicity tests would facilitate high throughput risk assessments of thousands of data-poor environmental chemicals. Estimating a TPAD requires def...

  16. Uncertainties in Estimates of the Risks of Late Effects from Space Radiation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cucinotta, F. A.; Schimmerling, W.; Wilson, J. W.; Peterson, L. E.; Saganti, P.; Dicelli, J. F.

    2002-01-01

    The health risks faced by astronauts from space radiation include cancer, cataracts, hereditary effects, and non-cancer morbidity and mortality risks related to the diseases of the old age. Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Within the linear-additivity model, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain a Maximum Likelihood estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including ISS, lunar station, deep space outpost, and Mar's missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time, and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative objective's, i.e., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well defined confidence limits.

  17. Overview of Risk-Estimation Tools for Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Diseases in European Populations.

    PubMed

    Gorenoi, Vitali; Hagen, Anja

    2015-06-01

    To identify persons with a high risk for cardiovascular diseases (CVD) special tools (scores, charts, graphics or computer programs) for CVD-risk assessment based on levels of the certain risk factors have been constructed. The applicability of these instruments depends on the derivation cohorts, considered risk factors and endpoints, applied statistical methods as well as used formats. The review addresses the risk-estimation tools for primary prevention of CVD potentially relevant for European populations. The risk-estimation tools were identified using two previously published systematic reviews as well as conducting a literature search in MEDLINE and a manual search. Only instruments were considered which were derived from cohorts of at least 1,000 participants of one gender without pre-existing CVD, enable risk assessment for a period of at least 5 years, were designed for an age-range of at least 25 years and published after the year 2000. A number of risk-estimation tools for CVD derived from single European, several European and from non-European cohorts were identified. From a clinical perspective, seem to be preferable instruments for risk of CVD contemporary developed for the population of interest, which use easily accessible measures and show a high discriminating ability. Instruments, restricting risk-estimation to certain cardiovascular events, recalibrated high-accuracy tools or tools derived from European populations with similar risk factors distribution and CVD-incidence are the second choice. In younger people, calculating the relative risk or cardiovascular age equivalence measures may be of more benefit.

  18. Multiple primary tumours: incidence estimation in the presence of competing risks

    PubMed Central

    Rosso, Stefano; Terracini, Lea; Ricceri, Fulvio; Zanetti, Roberto

    2009-01-01

    Background Estimating the risk of developing subsequent primary tumours in a population is difficult since the occurrence probability is conditioned to the survival probability. Methods We proposed to apply Markov models studying the transition intensities from first to second tumour with the Aalen-Johansen (AJ) estimators, as usually done in competing risk models. In a simulation study we applied the proposed method in different settings with constant or varying underlying intensities and applying age standardisation. In addition, we illustrated the method with data on breast cancer from the Piedmont Cancer Registry. Results The simulation study showed that the person-years approach led to a sensibly wider bias than the AJ estimators. The largest bias was observed assuming constantly increasing incidence rates. However, this situation is rather uncommon dealing with subsequent tumours incidence. In 9233 cases with breast cancer occurred in women resident in Turin, Italy, between 1985 and 1998 we observed a significant increased risk of 1.91 for subsequent cancer of corpus uteri, estimated with the age-standardised Aalen-Johansen incidence ratio (AJ-IRstand), and a significant increased risk of 1.29 for cancer possibly related to the radiotherapy of breast cancer. The peak of occurrence of those cancers was observed after 8 years of follow-up. Conclusion The increased risk of a cancer of the corpus uteri, also observed in other studies, is usually interpreted as the common shared risk factors such as low parity, early menarche and late onset of menopause. We also grouped together those cancers possibly associated to a previous local radiotherapy: the cumulative risk at 14 years is still not significant, however the AJ estimators showed a significant risk peak between the eighth and the ninth year. Finally, the proposed approach has been shown to be reliable and informative under several aspects. It allowed for a correct estimation of the risk, and for investigating

  19. Quantitative Risk reduction estimation Tool For Control Systems, Suggested Approach and Research Needs

    SciTech Connect

    Miles McQueen; Wayne Boyer; Mark Flynn; Sam Alessi

    2006-03-01

    For the past year we have applied a variety of risk assessment technologies to evaluate the risk to critical infrastructure from cyber attacks on control systems. More recently, we identified the need for a stand alone control system risk reduction estimation tool to provide owners and operators of control systems with a more useable, reliable, and credible method for managing the risks from cyber attack. Risk is defined as the probability of a successful attack times the value of the resulting loss, typically measured in lives and dollars. Qualitative and ad hoc techniques for measuring risk do not provide sufficient support for cost benefit analyses associated with cyber security mitigation actions. To address the need for better quantitative risk reduction models we surveyed previous quantitative risk assessment research; evaluated currently available tools; developed new quantitative techniques [17] [18]; implemented a prototype analysis tool to demonstrate how such a tool might be used; used the prototype to test a variety of underlying risk calculational engines (e.g. attack tree, attack graph); and identified technical and research needs. We concluded that significant gaps still exist and difficult research problems remain for quantitatively assessing the risk to control system components and networks, but that a useable quantitative risk reduction estimation tool is not beyond reach.

  20. Space Radiation Heart Disease Risk Estimates for Lunar and Mars Missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.; Chappell, Lori; Kim, Myung-Hee

    2010-01-01

    The NASA Space Radiation Program performs research on the risks of late effects from space radiation for cancer, neurological disorders, cataracts, and heart disease. For mortality risks, an aggregate over all risks should be considered as well as projection of the life loss per radiation induced death. We report on a triple detriment life-table approach to combine cancer and heart disease risks. Epidemiology results show extensive heterogeneity between populations for distinct components of the overall heart disease risks including hypertension, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and cerebrovascular diseases. We report on an update to our previous heart disease estimates for Heart disease (ICD9 390-429) and Stroke (ICD9 430-438), and other sub-groups using recent meta-analysis results for various exposed radiation cohorts to low LET radiation. Results for multiplicative and additive risk transfer models are considered using baseline rates for US males and female. Uncertainty analysis indicated heart mortality risks as low as zero, assuming a threshold dose for deterministic effects, and projections approaching one-third of the overall cancer risk. Medan life-loss per death estimates were significantly less than that of solid cancer and leukemias. Critical research questions to improve risks estimates for heart disease are distinctions in mechanisms at high doses (>2 Gy) and low to moderate doses (<2 Gy), and data and basic understanding of radiation doserate and quality effects, and individual sensitivity.

  1. Absolute neutrino mass scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Capelli, Silvia; Di Bari, Pasquale

    2013-04-01

    Neutrino oscillation experiments firmly established non-vanishing neutrino masses, a result that can be regarded as a strong motivation to extend the Standard Model. In spite of being the lightest massive particles, neutrinos likely represent an important bridge to new physics at very high energies and offer new opportunities to address some of the current cosmological puzzles, such as the matter-antimatter asymmetry of the Universe and Dark Matter. In this context, the determination of the absolute neutrino mass scale is a key issue within modern High Energy Physics. The talks in this parallel session well describe the current exciting experimental activity aiming to determining the absolute neutrino mass scale and offer an overview of a few models beyond the Standard Model that have been proposed in order to explain the neutrino masses giving a prediction for the absolute neutrino mass scale and solving the cosmological puzzles.

  2. Uncertainties in estimates of the risks of late effects from space radiation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cucinotta, F. A.; Schimmerling, W.; Wilson, J. W.; Peterson, L. E.; Saganti, P. B.; Dicello, J. F.

    2004-01-01

    Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Using the linear-additivity model for radiation risks, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain an estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including a deep space outpost and Mars missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, e.g., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well-defined confidence limits. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of COSPAR.

  3. A simple procedure for estimating pseudo risk ratios from exposure to non-carcinogenic chemical mixtures.

    PubMed

    Scinicariello, Franco; Portier, Christopher

    2016-03-01

    Non-cancer risk assessment traditionally assumes a threshold of effect, below which there is a negligible risk of an adverse effect. The Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry derives health-based guidance values known as Minimal Risk Levels (MRLs) as estimates of the toxicity threshold for non-carcinogens. Although the definition of an MRL, as well as EPA reference dose values (RfD and RfC), is a level that corresponds to "negligible risk," they represent daily exposure doses or concentrations, not risks. We present a new approach to calculate the risk at exposure to specific doses for chemical mixtures, the assumption in this approach is to assign de minimis risk at the MRL. The assigned risk enables the estimation of parameters in an exponential model, providing a complete dose-response curve for each compound from the chosen point of departure to zero. We estimated parameters for 27 chemicals. The value of k, which determines the shape of the dose-response curve, was moderately insensitive to the choice of the risk at the MRL. The approach presented here allows for the calculation of a risk from a single substance or the combined risk from multiple chemical exposures in a community. The methodology is applicable from point of departure data derived from quantal data, such as data from benchmark dose analyses or from data that can be transformed into probabilities, such as lowest-observed-adverse-effect level. The individual risks are used to calculate risk ratios that can facilitate comparison and cost-benefit analyses of environmental contamination control strategies.

  4. The absolute path command

    SciTech Connect

    Moody, A.

    2012-05-11

    The ap command traveres all symlinks in a given file, directory, or executable name to identify the final absolute path. It can print just the final path, each intermediate link along with the symlink chan, and the permissions and ownership of each directory component in the final path. It has functionality similar to "which", except that it shows the final path instead of the first path. It is also similar to "pwd", but it can provide the absolute path to a relative directory from the current working directory.

  5. Estimation model of life insurance claims risk for cancer patients by using Bayesian method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sukono; Suyudi, M.; Islamiyati, F.; Supian, S.

    2017-01-01

    This paper discussed the estimation model of the risk of life insurance claims for cancer patients using Bayesian method. To estimate the risk of the claim, the insurance participant data is grouped into two: the number of policies issued and the number of claims incurred. Model estimation is done using a Bayesian approach method. Further, the estimator model was used to estimate the risk value of life insurance claims each age group for each sex. The estimation results indicate that a large risk premium for insured males aged less than 30 years is 0.85; for ages 30 to 40 years is 3:58; for ages 41 to 50 years is 1.71; for ages 51 to 60 years is 2.96; and for those aged over 60 years is 7.82. Meanwhile, for insured women aged less than 30 years was 0:56; for ages 30 to 40 years is 3:21; for ages 41 to 50 years is 0.65; for ages 51 to 60 years is 3:12; and for those aged over 60 years is 9.99. This study is useful in determining the risk premium in homogeneous groups based on gender and age.

  6. Comparison of Paper-and-Pencil versus Web Administration of the Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS): Risk Behavior Prevalence Estimates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Eaton, Danice K.; Brener, Nancy D.; Kann, Laura; Denniston, Maxine M.; McManus, Tim; Kyle, Tonja M.; Roberts, Alice M.; Flint, Katherine H.; Ross, James G.

    2010-01-01

    The authors examined whether paper-and-pencil and Web surveys administered in the school setting yield equivalent risk behavior prevalence estimates. Data were from a methods study conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in spring 2008. Intact classes of 9th- or 10th-grade students were assigned randomly to complete a…

  7. ESTIMATING RISK TO CALIFORNIA ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FROM PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGE

    SciTech Connect

    Sathaye, Jayant; Dale, Larry; Larsen, Peter; Fitts, Gary; Koy, Kevin; Lewis, Sarah; Lucena, Andre

    2011-06-22

    This report outlines the results of a study of the impact of climate change on the energy infrastructure of California and the San Francisco Bay region, including impacts on power plant generation; transmission line and substation capacity during heat spells; wildfires near transmission lines; sea level encroachment upon power plants, substations, and natural gas facilities; and peak electrical demand. Some end-of-century impacts were projected:Expected warming will decrease gas-fired generator efficiency. The maximum statewide coincident loss is projected at 10.3 gigawatts (with current power plant infrastructure and population), an increase of 6.2 percent over current temperature-induced losses. By the end of the century, electricity demand for almost all summer days is expected to exceed the current ninetieth percentile per-capita peak load. As much as 21 percent growth is expected in ninetieth percentile peak demand (per-capita, exclusive of population growth). When generator losses are included in the demand, the ninetieth percentile peaks may increase up to 25 percent. As the climate warms, California's peak supply capacity will need to grow faster than the population.Substation capacity is projected to decrease an average of 2.7 percent. A 5C (9F) air temperature increase (the average increase predicted for hot days in August) will diminish the capacity of a fully-loaded transmission line by an average of 7.5 percent.The potential exposure of transmission lines to wildfire is expected to increase with time. We have identified some lines whose probability of exposure to fire are expected to increase by as much as 40 percent. Up to 25 coastal power plants and 86 substations are at risk of flooding (or partial flooding) due to sea level rise.

  8. Estimation of cancer risks and benefits associated with a potential increased consumption of fruits and vegetables.

    PubMed

    Reiss, Richard; Johnston, Jason; Tucker, Kevin; DeSesso, John M; Keen, Carl L

    2012-12-01

    The current paper provides an analysis of the potential number of cancer cases that might be prevented if half the U.S. population increased its fruit and vegetable consumption by one serving each per day. This number is contrasted with an upper-bound estimate of concomitant cancer cases that might be theoretically attributed to the intake of pesticide residues arising from the same additional fruit and vegetable consumption. The cancer prevention estimates were derived using a published meta-analysis of nutritional epidemiology studies. The cancer risks were estimated using U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) methods, cancer potency estimates from rodent bioassays, and pesticide residue sampling data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). The resulting estimates are that approximately 20,000 cancer cases per year could be prevented by increasing fruit and vegetable consumption, while up to 10 cancer cases per year could be caused by the added pesticide consumption. These estimates have significant uncertainties (e.g., potential residual confounding in the fruit and vegetable epidemiologic studies and reliance on rodent bioassays for cancer risk). However, the overwhelming difference between benefit and risk estimates provides confidence that consumers should not be concerned about cancer risks from consuming conventionally-grown fruits and vegetables.

  9. Occupational and consumer risk estimates for nanoparticles emitted by laser printers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hänninen, Otto; Brüske-Hohlfeld, Irene; Loh, Miranda; Stoeger, Tobias; Kreyling, Wolfgang; Schmid, Otmar; Peters, Annette

    2010-01-01

    Several studies have reported laser printers as significant sources of nanosized particles (<0.1 μm). Laser printers are used occupationally in office environments and by consumers in their homes. The current work combines existing epidemiological and toxicological evidence on particle-related health effects, measuring doses as mass, particle number and surface area, to estimate and compare the potential risks in occupational and consumer exposure scenarios related to the use of laser printers. The daily uptake of laser printer particles was estimated based on measured particle size distributions and lung deposition modelling. The obtained daily uptakes (particle mass 0.15-0.44 μg d-1; particle number 1.1-3.1 × 109 d-1) were estimated to correspond to 4-13 (mass) or 12-34 (number) deaths per million persons exposed on the basis of epidemiological risk estimates for ambient particles. These risks are higher than the generally used definition of acceptable risk of 1 × 10-6, but substantially lower than the estimated risks due to ambient particles. Toxicological studies on ambient particles revealed consistent values for lowest observed effect levels (LOELs) which were converted into equivalent daily uptakes using allometric scaling. These LOEL uptakes were by a factor of about 330-1,000 (mass) and 1,000-2,500 (particle surface area) higher than estimated uptakes from printers. This toxicological assessment would indicate no significant health risks due to printer particles. Finally, our study suggests that particle number (not mass) and mass (not surface area) are the most conservative risk metrics for the epidemiological and toxicological risks presented here, respectively.

  10. Laypersons’ Responses to the Communication of Uncertainty Regarding Cancer Risk Estimates

    PubMed Central

    Han, Paul K. J.; Klein, William M. P.; Lehman, Thomas C.; Massett, Holly; Lee, Simon C.; Freedman, Andrew N.

    2009-01-01

    Objective To explore laypersons’ responses to the communication of uncertainty associated with individualized cancer risk estimates and to identify reasons for individual differences in these responses. Design A qualitative study was conducted using focus groups. Participants were informed about a new colorectal cancer risk prediction model, and presented with hypothetical individualized risk estimates using presentation formats varying in expressed uncertainty (range v. point estimate). Semistructured interviews explored participants’ responses to this information. Participants and Setting Eight focus groups were conducted with 48 adults aged 50 to 74 residing in 2 major US metropolitan areas, Chicago, IL and Washington, DC. Purposive sampling was used to recruit participants with a high school or greater education, some familiarity with information technology, and no personal or immediate family history of cancer. Results Participants identified several sources of uncertainty regarding cancer risk estimates, including missing data, limitations in accuracy and source credibility, and conflicting information. In comparing presentation formats, most participants reported greater worry and perceived risk with the range than with the point estimate, consistent with the phenomenon of “ambiguity aversion.” However, others reported the opposite effect or else indifference between formats. Reasons suggested by participants’ responses included individual differences in optimism and motivations to reduce feelings of vulnerability and personal lack of control. Perceptions of source credibility and risk mutability emerged as potential mediating factors. Conclusions Laypersons’ responses to the communication of uncertainty regarding cancer risk estimates differ, and include both heightened and diminished risk perceptions. These differences may be attributable to personality, cognitive, and motivational factors. PMID:19470720

  11. Assessment of the value of a genetic risk score in improving the estimation of coronary risk

    PubMed Central

    Lluis-Ganella, Carla; Subirana, Isaac; Lucas, Gavin; Tomás, Marta; Muñoz, Daniel; Sentí, Mariano; Salas, Eduardo; Sala, Joan; Ramos, Rafel; Ordovas, Jose M; Marrugat, Jaume; Elosua, Roberto

    2013-01-01

    Background The American Heart Association has established criteria for the evaluation of novel markers of cardiovascular risk. In accordance with these criteria, we assessed the association between a multi-locus genetic risk score (GRS) and incident coronary heart disease (CHD), and evaluated whether this GRS improves the predictive capacity of the Framingham risk function. Methods and results Using eight genetic variants associated with CHD but not with classical cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs), we generated a multi-locus GRS, and found it to be linearly associated with CHD in two population based cohorts: The REGICOR Study (n=2,351) and The Framingham Heart Study (n=3,537) (meta-analyzed HR [95%CI]: ~1.13 [1.01–1.27], per unit). Inclusion of the GRS in the Framingham risk function improved its discriminative capacity in the Framingham sample (c-statistic: 72.81 vs.72.37, p=0.042) but not in the REGICOR sample. According to both the net reclassification improvement (NRI) index and the integrated discrimination index (IDI), the GRS improved re-classification among individuals with intermediate coronary risk (meta-analysis NRI [95%CI]: 17.44 [8.04; 26.83]), but not overall. Conclusions A multi-locus GRS based on genetic variants unrelated to CVRFs was associated with a linear increase in risk of CHD events in two distinct populations. This GRS improves risk reclassification particularly in the population at intermediate coronary risk. These results indicate the potential value of the inclusion of genetic information in classical functions for risk assessment in the intermediate risk population group. PMID:22521901

  12. Assessment of the value of a genetic risk score in improving the estimation of coronary risk

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The American Heart Association has established criteria for the evaluation of novel markers of cardiovascular risk. In accordance with these criteria, we assessed the association between a multi-locus genetic risk score (GRS) and incident coronary heart disease (CHD), and evaluated whether this GRS ...

  13. Estimating the Contribution of Selected Risk Factors in Attributable Burden to Stroke in Iran

    PubMed Central

    Karami, M; Soori, H; Monfared, A Bahadori

    2012-01-01

    Background: Knowledge of the magnitude of avoidable burden by risk factors is needed for health policy, priority setting, and preventing stroke. The aim of this study was to estimate the contribution of selected risk factors including hypertension, overweight, obesity, tobacco use, and physical inactivity to the attributable burden of stroke in Iran. Methods: The World Health Organization Comparative Risk Assessment (CRA) methodology was employed to calculate the Potential Impact Fraction (PIF) and percentage of avoidable burden of stroke, which attributed to its risk factors among Iranian adults in 2009. Prevalence of risk factors was obtained from the 5th STEPS survey of chronic disease risk factors which conducted in 2009. PIF was estimated on both theoretical minimum and feasible minimum risk. A simulation procedure incorporating sources of uncertainty was used to estimate the uncertainties for the attributable burden. Results: About 15.7% (95% uncertainty intervals: 5.8- 23.5) of attributable Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) to stroke in adult males and 15.8% (95% uncertainty intervals: 5.8- 23.5) in adult females are avoidable after changing the current prevalence (16.0% and 16.1% for males and females, respectively) of hypertension to 10% in both sexes. Conclusion: This work highlighted the important role of hypertension and overweight. Accordingly, policy makers are advised to consider these risk factors once implementing interventional program in Iran. PMID:23113182

  14. Mathematical Models for Estimating the Risks of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE).

    PubMed

    Al-Zoughool, Mustafa; Cottrell, David; Elsaadany, Susie; Murray, Noel; Oraby, Tamer; Smith, Robert; Krewski, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    When the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) epidemic first emerged in the United Kingdom in the mid 1980s, the etiology of animal prion diseases was largely unknown. Risk management efforts to control the disease were also subject to uncertainties regarding the extent of BSE infections and future course of the epidemic. As understanding of BSE increased, mathematical models were developed to estimate risk of BSE infection and to predict reductions in risk in response to BSE control measures. Risk models of BSE-transmission dynamics determined disease persistence in cattle herds and relative infectivity of cattle prior to onset of clinical disease. These BSE models helped in understanding key epidemiological features of BSE transmission and dynamics, such as incubation period distribution and age-dependent infection susceptibility to infection with the BSE agent. This review summarizes different mathematical models and methods that have been used to estimate risk of BSE, and discusses how such risk projection models have informed risk assessment and management of BSE. This review also provides some general insights on how mathematical models of the type discussed here may be used to estimate risks of emerging zoonotic diseases when biological data on transmission of the etiological agent are limited.

  15. Mobile Applications for Type 2 Diabetes Risk Estimation: a Systematic Review.

    PubMed

    Fijacko, Nino; Brzan, Petra Povalej; Stiglic, Gregor

    2015-10-01

    Screening for chronical diseases like type 2 diabetes can be done using different methods and various risk tests. This study present a review of type 2 diabetes risk estimation mobile applications focusing on their functionality and availability of information on the underlying risk calculators. Only 9 out of 31 reviewed mobile applications, featured in three major mobile application stores, disclosed the name of risk calculator used for assessing the risk of type 2 diabetes. Even more concerning, none of the reviewed applications mentioned that they are collecting the data from users to improve the performance of their risk estimation calculators or offer users the descriptive statistics of the results from users that already used the application. For that purpose the questionnaires used for calculation of risk should be upgraded by including the information on the most recent blood sugar level measurements from users. Although mobile applications represent a great future potential for health applications, developers still do not put enough emphasis on informing the user of the underlying methods used to estimate the risk for a specific clinical condition.

  16. Prophylactic radiotherapy against heterotopic ossification following internal fixation of acetabular fractures: a comparative estimate of risk

    PubMed Central

    Nasr, P; Yip, G; Scaife, J E; House, T; Thomas, S J; Harris, F; Owen, P J; Hull, P

    2014-01-01

    Objective: Radiotherapy (RT) is effective in preventing heterotopic ossification (HO) around acetabular fractures requiring surgical reconstruction. We audited outcomes and estimated risks from RT prophylaxis, and alternatives of indometacin or no prophylaxis. Methods: 34 patients underwent reconstruction of acetabular fractures through a posterior approach, followed by a 8-Gy single fraction. The mean age was 44 years. The mean time from surgery to RT was 1.1 days. The major RT risk is radiation-induced fatal cancer. The International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) method was used to estimate risk, and compared with a method (Trott and Kemprad) specifically for estimating RT risk for benign disease. These were compared with risks associated with indometacin and no prophylaxis. Results: 28 patients (82%) developed no HO; 6 developed Brooker Class I; and none developed Class II–IV HO. The ICRP method suggests a risk of fatal cancer in the range of 1 in 1000 to 1 in 10,000; the Trott and Kemprad method suggests 1 in 3000. For younger patients, this may rise to 1 in 2000; and for elderly patients, it may fall to 1 in 6000. The risk of death from gastric bleeding or perforation from indometacin is 1 in 180 to 1 in 900 in older patients. Without prophylaxis risk of death from reoperation to remove HO is 1 in 4000 to 1 in 30,000. Conclusion: These results are encouraging, consistent with much larger series and endorse our multidisciplinary management. Risk estimates can be used in discussion with patients. Advances in knowledge: The risk from RT prophylaxis is small, it is safer than indometacin and substantially overlaps with the range for no prophylaxis. PMID:25089852

  17. Effect of induction chemotherapy on estimated risk of radiation pneumonitis in bulky non–small cell lung cancer

    SciTech Connect

    Amin, Neha P.; Miften, Moyed; Thornton, Dale; Ryan, Nicole; Kavanagh, Brian; Gaspar, Laurie E

    2013-10-01

    Patients with bulky non–small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) may be at a high risk for radiation pneumonitis (RP) if treated with up-front concurrent chemoradiation. There is limited information about the effect of induction chemotherapy on the volume of normal lung subsequently irradiated. This study aims to estimate the reduction in risk of RP in patients with NSCLC after receiving induction chemotherapy. Between 2004 and 2009, 25 patients with Stage IV NSCLC were treated with chemotherapy alone (no surgery or radiation therapy [RT]) and had computed tomography (CT) scans before and after 2 cycles of chemotherapy. Simulated RT plans were created for the prechemotherapy and postchemotherapy scans so as to deliver 60 Gy to the thoracic disease in patients who had either a >20% volumetric increase or decrease in gross tumor volume (GTV) from chemotherapy. The prechemotherapy and postchemotherapy scans were analyzed to compare the percentage of lung volume receiving≥20 Gy (V20), mean lung dose (MLD), and normal tissue complication probability (NTCP). Eight patients (32%) had a GTV reduction >20%, 2 (8%) had GTV increase >20%, and 15 (60%) had stable GTV. In the 8 responders, there was an absolute median GTV decrease of 88.1 cc (7.3 to 351.6 cc) or a 48% (20% to 62%) relative reduction in tumor burden. One had >20% tumor progression during chemotherapy, yet had an improvement in dosimetric parameters postchemotherapy. Among these 9 patients, the median decrease in V20, MLD, and NTCP was 2.6% (p<0.01), 2.1 Gy (p<0.01), and 5.6% (p<0.01), respectively. Less than one-third of patients with NSCLC obtain >20% volumetric tumor reduction from chemotherapy alone. Even with that amount of volumetric reduction, the 5% reduced risk of RP was only modest and did not convert previously ineligible patients to safely receive definitive thoracic RT.

  18. Estimating risk at a Superfund site using passive sampling devices as biological surrogates in human health risk models.

    PubMed

    Allan, Sarah E; Sower, Gregory J; Anderson, Kim A

    2011-10-01

    Passive sampling devices (PSDs) sequester the freely dissolved fraction of lipophilic contaminants, mimicking passive chemical uptake and accumulation by biomembranes and lipid tissues. Public Health Assessments that inform the public about health risks from exposure to contaminants through consumption of resident fish are generally based on tissue data, which can be difficult to obtain and requires destructive sampling. The purpose of this study is to apply PSD data in a Public Health Assessment to demonstrate that PSDs can be used as a biological surrogate to evaluate potential human health risks and elucidate spatio-temporal variations in risk. PSDs were used to measure polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the Willamette River; upriver, downriver and within the Portland Harbor Superfund megasite for 3 years during wet and dry seasons. Based on an existing Public Health Assessment for this area, concentrations of PAHs in PSDs were substituted for fish tissue concentrations. PSD measured PAH concentrations captured the magnitude, range and variability of PAH concentrations reported for fish/shellfish from Portland Harbor. Using PSD results in place of fish data revealed an unacceptable risk level for cancer in all seasons but no unacceptable risk for non-cancer endpoints. Estimated cancer risk varied by several orders of magnitude based on season and location. Sites near coal tar contamination demonstrated the highest risk, particularly during the dry season and remediation activities. Incorporating PSD data into Public Health Assessments provides specific spatial and temporal contaminant exposure information that can assist public health professionals in evaluating human health risks.

  19. Variations of lung cancer risk from asbestos exposure: impact on estimation of population attributable fraction.

    PubMed

    Moon, Eun Kyeong; Son, Mia; Jin, Young-Woo; Park, Sohee; Lee, Won Jin

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to investigate the potential impact of differing lung cancer risks in study populations on estimating population attributable fraction (PAF) from asbestos exposure. Studies were identified via a MEDLINE search up to September 2009 and from the reference lists of publications about asbestos exposure and lung cancer risk. Relative risk estimates were extracted from 160 studies and meta-relative risks were calculated according to random-effect models. Hypothetical PAFs were calculated based on the meta results and on the difference exposure scenarios. The risks for lung cancer from asbestos exposure were variable according to the region as well as other study characteristics. The risk estimates proved higher in Asian countries (RR=3.53), in studies with 500 or fewer subjects (RR=2.26), and papers published in the 1990s or earlier (RR=1.91), than did those for European or North American countries, studies with more than 500 subjects, and papers published in the 2000s, respectively. The differences in PAFs between Asian and North American studies were 15.5%, 30.3%, and 36.2% when the exposure prevalence was 10%, 30%, and 50%, respectively. This study suggested that it is important to apply appropriate lung cancer estimates to each study population when calculating PAF from asbestos exposure.

  20. Prospective method for estimating occupational health risks in new energy technologies

    SciTech Connect

    Moskowitz, P D; Briggs, T; Ungers, L; Hamilton, L D

    1981-09-01

    In design, development, and acceptance of new energy technologies, concern for health and safety is increasingly important. Determining risks for emerging technologies is difficult because health statistics associated with these new alternatives are unavailable. Nevertheless boundaries on such risks must be determined to identify potentially significant hazards and to permit technology comparisons to be made. An approach to determining occupational health costs is to disaggregate labor requirements of an emerging industy by different worker classifications. Risks to workers can then be determined for these classifications from occupational health statistics of related industries. By summing risks for each worker classification, prospective estimates of individual and societal risk from an emerging technology can be developed. Although this approach identifies accident-related effects, it cannot be used to quantitate occupationally induced disease. An example of this method analyzing different photovoltaic fabrication alternatives is given. Individual vs. societal risk is considered in these analyses.

  1. Measurement of natural radionuclides in Malaysian bottled mineral water and consequent health risk estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Priharti, W.; Samat, S. B.; Yasir, M. S.

    2015-09-01

    The radionuclides of 226Ra, 232Th and 40K were measured in ten mineral water samples, of which from the radioactivity obtained, the ingestion doses for infants, children and adults were calculated and the cancer risk for the adult was estimated. Results showed that the calculated ingestion doses for the three age categories are much lower than the average worldwide ingestion exposure of 0.29 mSv/y and the estimated cancer risk is much lower than the cancer risk of 8.40 × 10-3 (estimated from the total natural radiation dose of 2.40 mSv/y). The present study concludes that the bottled mineral water produced in Malaysia is safe for daily human consumption.

  2. Measurement of natural radionuclides in Malaysian bottled mineral water and consequent health risk estimation

    SciTech Connect

    Priharti, W.; Samat, S. B.; Yasir, M. S.

    2015-09-25

    The radionuclides of {sup 226}Ra, {sup 232}Th and {sup 40}K were measured in ten mineral water samples, of which from the radioactivity obtained, the ingestion doses for infants, children and adults were calculated and the cancer risk for the adult was estimated. Results showed that the calculated ingestion doses for the three age categories are much lower than the average worldwide ingestion exposure of 0.29 mSv/y and the estimated cancer risk is much lower than the cancer risk of 8.40 × 10{sup −3} (estimated from the total natural radiation dose of 2.40 mSv/y). The present study concludes that the bottled mineral water produced in Malaysia is safe for daily human consumption.

  3. Performance of default risk model with barrier option framework and maximum likelihood estimation: Evidence from Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chou, Heng-Chih; Wang, David

    2007-11-01

    We investigate the performance of a default risk model based on the barrier option framework with maximum likelihood estimation. We provide empirical validation of the model by showing that implied default barriers are statistically significant for a sample of construction firms in Taiwan over the period 1994-2004. We find that our model dominates the commonly adopted models, Merton model, Z-score model and ZETA model. Moreover, we test the n-year-ahead prediction performance of the model and find evidence that the prediction accuracy of the model improves as the forecast horizon decreases. Finally, we assess the effect of estimated default risk on equity returns and find that default risk is able to explain equity returns and that default risk is a variable worth considering in asset-pricing tests, above and beyond size and book-to-market.

  4. A methodology for estimating risks associated with landslides of contaminated soil into rivers.

    PubMed

    Göransson, Gunnel; Norrman, Jenny; Larson, Magnus; Alén, Claes; Rosén, Lars

    2014-02-15

    Urban areas adjacent to surface water are exposed to soil movements such as erosion and slope failures (landslides). A landslide is a potential mechanism for mobilisation and spreading of pollutants. This mechanism is in general not included in environmental risk assessments for contaminated sites, and the consequences associated with contamination in the soil are typically not considered in landslide risk assessments. This study suggests a methodology to estimate the environmental risks associated with landslides in contaminated sites adjacent to rivers. The methodology is probabilistic and allows for datasets with large uncertainties and the use of expert judgements, providing quantitative estimates of probabilities for defined failures. The approach is illustrated by a case study along the river Göta Älv, Sweden, where failures are defined and probabilities for those failures are estimated. Failures are defined from a pollution perspective and in terms of exceeding environmental quality standards (EQSs) and acceptable contaminant loads. Models are then suggested to estimate probabilities of these failures. A landslide analysis is carried out to assess landslide probabilities based on data from a recent landslide risk classification study along the river Göta Älv. The suggested methodology is meant to be a supplement to either landslide risk assessment (LRA) or environmental risk assessment (ERA), providing quantitative estimates of the risks associated with landslide in contaminated sites. The proposed methodology can also act as a basis for communication and discussion, thereby contributing to intersectoral management solutions. From the case study it was found that the defined failures are governed primarily by the probability of a landslide occurring. The overall probabilities for failure are low; however, if a landslide occurs the probabilities of exceeding EQS are high and the probability of having at least a 10% increase in the contamination load

  5. Estimated human health risks of disposing of nonhazardous oil field waste in salt caverns

    SciTech Connect

    Tomasko, D.; Elcock, D.; Veil, J.

    1997-09-01

    Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) has completed an evaluation of the possibility that adverse human health effects (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic) could result from exposure to contaminants released from nonhazardous oil field wastes (NOW) disposed in domal salt caverns. In this assessment, several steps were used to evaluate potential human health risks: identifying potential contaminants of concern, determining how humans could be exposed to these contaminants, assessing the contaminants` toxicities, estimating contaminant intakes, and, finally, calculating human cancer and noncancer risks.

  6. Examining the effects of air pollution composition on within region differences in PM2.5 mortality risk estimates

    EPA Science Inventory

    Multi-city population-based epidemiological studies have observed significant heterogeneity in both the magnitude and direction of city-specific risk estimates, but tended to focus on regional differences in PM2.5 mortality risk estimates. Interpreting differences in risk estimat...

  7. Estimate of Space Radiation-Induced Cancer Risks for International Space Station Orbits

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wu, Honglu; Atwell, William; Cucinotta, Francis A.; Yang, Chui-hsu

    1996-01-01

    Excess cancer risks from exposures to space radiation are estimated for various orbits of the International Space Station (ISS). Organ exposures are computed with the transport codes, BRYNTRN and HZETRN, and the computerized anatomical male and computerized anatomical female models. Cancer risk coefficients in the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements report No. 98 are used to generate lifetime excess cancer incidence and cancer mortality after a one-month mission to ISS. The generated data are tabulated to serve as a quick reference for assessment of radiation risk to astronauts on ISS missions.

  8. Studies on the Hiroshima and Nagasaki survivors, and their use in estimating radiation risks.

    PubMed

    Muirhead, C R

    2003-01-01

    Epidemiological studies of the survivors of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki have been conducted over many years. These studies have examined, inter alia, mortality and cancer incidence among the survivors. This paper summarises the form of the studies undertaken, outlines the main findings and describes how these results can be used in deriving estimates of radiation risks. In doing so, some areas of uncertainty and open issues are highlighted, such as the magnitude of lifetime cancer risks and the evidence for raised risks of non-cancer diseases at low doses. Continued follow-up of the survivors will be important in shedding further light on these issues.

  9. Estimate of Space Radiation-Induced Cancer Risks for International Space Station Orbits

    SciTech Connect

    Wu, H.; Atwell, W.; Cucinotta, F.A.; Yang, C.

    1996-03-01

    Excess cancer risks from exposures to space radiation are estimated for various orbits of the International Space Station (ISS). Organ exposures are computed with the transport codes, BRYNTRN and HZETRN, and the computerized anatomical male and computerized anatomical female models. Cancer risk coefficients in the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements report No. 98 are used to generate lifetime excess cancer incidence and cancer mortality after a one-month mission to ISS. The generated data are tabulated to serve as a quick reference for assessment of radiation risk to astronauts on ISS missions.

  10. Estimating cancer risk from dental cone-beam CT exposures based on skin dosimetry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pauwels, Ruben; Cockmartin, Lesley; Ivanauskaité, Deimante; Urbonienė, Ausra; Gavala, Sophia; Donta, Catherine; Tsiklakis, Kostas; Jacobs, Reinhilde; Bosmans, Hilde; Bogaerts, Ria; Horner, Keith; SEDENTEXCT Project Consortium, The

    2014-07-01

    The aim of this study was to measure entrance skin doses on patients undergoing cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) examinations, to establish conversion factors between skin and organ doses, and to estimate cancer risk from CBCT exposures. 266 patients (age 8-83) were included, involving three imaging centres. CBCT scans were acquired using the SCANORA 3D (Soredex, Tuusula, Finland) and NewTom 9000 (QR, Verona, Italy). Eight thermoluminescent dosimeters were attached to the patient's skin at standardized locations. Using previously published organ dose estimations on various CBCTs with an anthropomorphic phantom, correlation factors to convert skin dose to organ doses were calculated and applied to estimate patient organ doses. The BEIR VII age- and gender-dependent dose-risk model was applied to estimate the lifetime attributable cancer risk. For the SCANORA 3D, average skin doses over the eight locations varied between 484 and 1788 µGy. For the NewTom 9000 the range was between 821 and 1686 µGy for Centre 1 and between 292 and 2325 µGy for Centre 2. Entrance skin dose measurements demonstrated the combined effect of exposure and patient factors on the dose. The lifetime attributable cancer risk, expressed as the probability to develop a radiation-induced cancer, varied between 2.7 per million (age >60) and 9.8 per million (age 8-11) with an average of 6.0 per million. On average, the risk for female patients was 40% higher. The estimated radiation risk was primarily influenced by the age at exposure and the gender, pointing out the continuing need for justification and optimization of CBCT exposures, with a specific focus on children.

  11. Estimating cancer risk from dental cone-beam CT exposures based on skin dosimetry.

    PubMed

    Pauwels, Ruben; Cockmartin, Lesley; Ivanauskaité, Deimante; Urbonienė, Ausra; Gavala, Sophia; Donta, Catherine; Tsiklakis, Kostas; Jacobs, Reinhilde; Bosmans, Hilde; Bogaerts, Ria; Horner, Keith

    2014-07-21

    The aim of this study was to measure entrance skin doses on patients undergoing cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) examinations, to establish conversion factors between skin and organ doses, and to estimate cancer risk from CBCT exposures. 266 patients (age 8-83) were included, involving three imaging centres. CBCT scans were acquired using the SCANORA 3D (Soredex, Tuusula, Finland) and NewTom 9000 (QR, Verona, Italy). Eight thermoluminescent dosimeters were attached to the patient's skin at standardized locations. Using previously published organ dose estimations on various CBCTs with an anthropomorphic phantom, correlation factors to convert skin dose to organ doses were calculated and applied to estimate patient organ doses. The BEIR VII age- and gender-dependent dose-risk model was applied to estimate the lifetime attributable cancer risk. For the SCANORA 3D, average skin doses over the eight locations varied between 484 and 1788 µGy. For the NewTom 9000 the range was between 821 and 1686 µGy for Centre 1 and between 292 and 2325 µGy for Centre 2. Entrance skin dose measurements demonstrated the combined effect of exposure and patient factors on the dose. The lifetime attributable cancer risk, expressed as the probability to develop a radiation-induced cancer, varied between 2.7 per million (age >60) and 9.8 per million (age 8-11) with an average of 6.0 per million. On average, the risk for female patients was 40% higher. The estimated radiation risk was primarily influenced by the age at exposure and the gender, pointing out the continuing need for justification and optimization of CBCT exposures, with a specific focus on children.

  12. Micro-scale flood risk estimation in historic centres: a case study in Florence, Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Castelli, Fabio; Arrighi, Chiara; Brugioni, Marcello; Franceschini, Serena; Mazzanti, Bernardo

    2013-04-01

    The route to flood risk assessment is much more than hydraulic modelling of inundation, that is hazard mapping. Flood risk is the product of flood hazard, vulnerability and exposure, all the three to be estimated with comparable level of accuracy. While hazard maps have already been implemented in many countries, quantitative damage and risk maps are still at a preliminary level. Currently one of the main challenges in flood damage estimation resides in the scarce availability of socio-economic data characterizing the monetary value of the exposed assets. When these public-open data are available, the variability of their level of detail drives the need of merging different sources and of selecting an appropriate scale of analysis. In this work a parsimonious quasi-2D hydraulic model is adopted, having many advantages in terms of easy set-up. In order to represent the geometry of the study domain an high-resolution and up-to-date Digital Surface Model (DSM) is used. The accuracy in flood depth estimation is evaluated by comparison with marble-plate records of a historic flood in the city of Florence (Italy). The accuracy is characterized in the downtown most flooded area by a bias of a very few centimetres and a determination coefficient of 0.73. The average risk is found to be about 14 €/m2•year, corresponding to about 8.3% of residents income. The spatial distribution of estimated risk highlights a complex interaction between the flood pattern and the buildings characteristics. Proceeding through the risk estimation steps, a new micro-scale potential damage assessment method is proposed. This method is based on the georeferenced census system considered as optimal compromise between spatial detail and open availability of socio-economic data. The census sections system consist of geographically contiguous polygons that usually coincide with building blocks in dense urban areas. The results of flood risk assessment at the census section scale resolve most of

  13. Estimation of potential lifetime cancer risks for trihalomethanes from consuming chlorinated drinking water in Taiwan.

    PubMed

    Hsu, C H; Jeng, W L; Chang, R M; Chien, L C; Han, B C

    2001-02-01

    Data on concentrations of trihalomethanes (THMs) in raw and chlorinated water collected from three water treatment plants in Taiwan and estimates of the lifetime cancer risk for THMs from drinking water, using age-adjusted factors and volatilization terms, are presented. Data on THM levels in drinking water were obtained from the annual reports of the Environmental Protection Administration (EPA) of Taiwan. The methodology for estimation of lifetime cancer risks was taken from the USEPA. Chloroform was the major species of THMs, especially in the water plant of south Taiwan. Chloroform contributed the majority of the lifetime cancer risks (range: 87.5-92.5%) of total risks from the three water supply areas. All lifetime cancer risks for CHCl(3), CHBrCl(2), CHBr2Cl, and CHBr3 from consuming tap water in the three water supply areas were higher than 10(-6). The sum of lifetime cancer risks for CHCl(3), CHBrCl(3), CHBr2Cl, and CHBr3 was highest (total risk for total THMs<1.94x10(-4)) for tap water from south Taiwan.

  14. An Evidenced-Based Approach for Estimating Decompression Sickness Risk in Aircraft Operations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Robinson, Ronald R.; Dervay, Joseph P.; Conkin, Johnny

    1999-01-01

    Estimating the risk of decompression Sickness (DCS) in aircraft operations remains a challenge, making the reduction of this risk through the development of operationally acceptable denitrogenation schedules difficult. In addition, the medical recommendations which are promulgated are often not supported by rigorous evaluation of the available data, but are instead arrived at by negotiation with the aircraft operations community, are adapted from other similar aircraft operations, or are based upon the opinion of the local medical community. We present a systematic approach for defining DCS risk in aircraft operations by analyzing the data available for a specific aircraft, flight profile, and aviator population. Once the risk of DCS in a particular aircraft operation is known, appropriate steps can be taken to reduce this risk to a level acceptable to the applicable aviation community. Using this technique will allow any aviation medical community to arrive at the best estimate of DCS risk for its specific mission and aviator population and will allow systematic reevaluation of the decisions regarding DCS risk reduction when additional data are available.

  15. Cancer risk estimation for mixtures of coal tars and benzo(a)pyrene

    SciTech Connect

    Gaylor, D.W.; Culp, S.J.; Goldstein, L.S.; Beland, F.A.

    2000-02-01

    Two-year chronic bioassays were conducted by using B6C3F1 female mice fed several concentrations of two different mixtures of coal tars from manufactured gas waste sites or benzo(a)pyrene (BaP). The purpose of the study was to obtain estimates of cancer potency of coal tar mixtures, by using conventional regulatory methods, for use in manufactured gas waste site remediation. A secondary purpose was to investigate the validity of using the concentration of a single potent carcinogen, in this case benzo(a)pyrene, to estimate the relative risk for a coal tar mixture. The study has shown that BaP dominates the cancer risk when its concentration is greater than 6,300 ppm in the coal tar mixture. In this case the most sensitive tissue site is the forestomach. Using low-dose linear extrapolation, the lifetime cancer risk for humans is estimated to be: Risk < 1.03 x 10{sup {minus}4} (ppm coal tar in total diet) + 240 x 10{sup {minus}4} (ppm BaP in total diet), based on forestomach tumors. If the BaP concentration in the coal tar mixture is less than 6,300 ppm, the more likely case, then lung tumors provide the largest estimated upper limit of risk, Risk < 2.55 x 10{sup {minus}4} (ppm coal tar in total diet), with no contribution of BaP to lung tumors. The upper limit of the cancer potency (slope factor) for lifetime oral exposure to benzo(a)pyrene is 1.2 x 10{sup {minus}3} per {micro}g per kg body weight per day from this Good Laboratory Practice (GLP) study compared with the current value of 7.3 x 10{sup {minus}3} per {micro}g per kg body weight per day listed in the US EPA Integrated Risk Information System.

  16. Cancer risk estimation for mixtures of coal tars and benzo(a)pyrene.

    PubMed

    Gaylor, D W; Culp, S J; Goldstein, L S; Beland, F A

    2000-02-01

    Two-year chronic bioassays were conducted by using B6C3F1 female mice fed several concentrations of two different mixtures of coal tars from manufactured gas waste sites or benzo(a)pyrene (BaP). The purpose of the study was to obtain estimates of cancer potency of coal tar mixtures, by using conventional regulatory methods, for use in manufactured gas waste site remediation. A secondary purpose was to investigate the validity of using the concentration of a single potent carcinogen, in this case benzo(a)pyrene, to estimate the relative risk for a coal tar mixture. The study has shown that BaP dominates the cancer risk when its concentration is greater than 6,300 ppm in the coal tar mixture. In this case the most sensitive tissue site is the forestomach. Using low-dose linear extrapolation, the lifetime cancer risk for humans is estimated to be: Risk < 1.03 x 10(-4) (ppm coal tar in total diet) + 240 x 10(-4) (ppm BaP in total diet), based on forestomach tumors. If the BaP concentration in the coal tar mixture is less than 6,300 ppm, the more likely case, then lung tumors provide the largest estimated upper limit of risk, Risk < 2.55 x 10(-4) (ppm coal tar in total diet), with no contribution of BaP to lung tumors. The upper limit of the cancer potency (slope factor) for lifetime oral exposure to benzo(a)pyrene is 1.2 x 10(-3) per microgram per kg body weight per day from this Good Laboratory Practice (GLP) study compared with the current value of 7.3 x 10(-3) per microgram per kg body weight per day listed in the U.S. EPA Integrated Risk Information System.

  17. Quantitative assessment of the microbial risk of leafy greens from farm to consumption: preliminary framework, data, and risk estimates.

    PubMed

    Danyluk, Michelle D; Schaffner, Donald W

    2011-05-01

    This project was undertaken to relate what is known about the behavior of Escherichia coli O157:H7 under laboratory conditions and integrate this information to what is known regarding the 2006 E. coli O157:H7 spinach outbreak in the context of a quantitative microbial risk assessment. The risk model explicitly assumes that all contamination arises from exposure in the field. Extracted data, models, and user inputs were entered into an Excel spreadsheet, and the modeling software @RISK was used to perform Monte Carlo simulations. The model predicts that cut leafy greens that are temperature abused will support the growth of E. coli O157:H7, and populations of the organism may increase by as much a 1 log CFU/day under optimal temperature conditions. When the risk model used a starting level of -1 log CFU/g, with 0.1% of incoming servings contaminated, the predicted numbers of cells per serving were within the range of best available estimates of pathogen levels during the outbreak. The model predicts that levels in the field of -1 log CFU/g and 0.1% prevalence could have resulted in an outbreak approximately the size of the 2006 E. coli O157:H7 outbreak. This quantitative microbial risk assessment model represents a preliminary framework that identifies available data and provides initial risk estimates for pathogenic E. coli in leafy greens. Data gaps include retail storage times, correlations between storage time and temperature, determining the importance of E. coli O157:H7 in leafy greens lag time models, and validation of the importance of cross-contamination during the washing process.

  18. A review of methods to estimate cause-specific mortality in presence of competing risks

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Heisey, Dennis M.; Patterson, Brent R.

    2006-01-01

    Estimating cause-specific mortality is often of central importance for understanding the dynamics of wildlife populations. Despite such importance, methodology for estimating and analyzing cause-specific mortality has received little attention in wildlife ecology during the past 20 years. The issue of analyzing cause-specific, mutually exclusive events in time is not unique to wildlife. In fact, this general problem has received substantial attention in human biomedical applications within the context of biostatistical survival analysis. Here, we consider cause-specific mortality from a modern biostatistical perspective. This requires carefully defining what we mean by cause-specific mortality and then providing an appropriate hazard-based representation as a competing risks problem. This leads to the general solution of cause-specific mortality as the cumulative incidence function (CIF). We describe the appropriate generalization of the fully nonparametric staggered-entry Kaplan–Meier survival estimator to cause-specific mortality via the nonparametric CIF estimator (NPCIFE), which in many situations offers an attractive alternative to the Heisey–Fuller estimator. An advantage of the NPCIFE is that it lends itself readily to risk factors analysis with standard software for Cox proportional hazards model. The competing risks–based approach also clarifies issues regarding another intuitive but erroneous "cause-specific mortality" estimator based on the Kaplan–Meier survival estimator and commonly seen in the life sciences literature.

  19. Cancer risks in BRCA2 families: estimates for sites other than breast and ovary

    PubMed Central

    van Asperen, C J; Brohet, R; Meijers-Heijboer, E; Hoogerbrugge, N; Verhoef, S; Vasen, H; Ausems, M; Menko, F; Gomez, G; Klijn, J; Hogervorst, F; van Houwelingen, J C; van't, V; Rookus, M; van Leeuwen, F E; on, b

    2005-01-01

    Background: In BRCA2 mutation carriers, increased risks have been reported for several cancer sites besides breast and ovary. As most of the families included in earlier reports were selected on the basis of multiple breast/ovarian cancer cases, it is possible that risk estimates may differ in mutation carriers with a less striking family history. Methods: In the Netherlands, 139 BRCA2 families with 66 different pathogenic mutations were included in a nationwide study. To avoid testing bias, we chose not to estimate risk in typed carriers, but rather in male and female family members with a 50% prior probability of being a carrier (n = 1811). The relative risk (RR) for each cancer site with the exception of breast and ovarian cancer was determined by comparing observed numbers with those expected, based on Dutch cancer incidence rates. Results: We observed an excess risk for four cancer sites: pancreas (RR 5.9; 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.2 to 10.0), prostate (2.5; 1.6 to 3.8), bone (14.4; 2.9 to 42.1) and pharynx (7.3; 2.0 to 18.6). A small increase was observed for cancer of the digestive tract (1.5; 1.1 to 1.9). Histological verification was available for 46% of the tumours. Nearly all increased risks reached statistical significance for men only. Cancer risks tended to be higher for people before the age of 65 years. Moreover, families with mutations outside the previously defined ovarian cancer cluster region tended to have a higher cancer risk. Conclusions: We found that BRCA2 carriers are at increased risk for cancers of the prostate and pancreas, and possibly bone and pharynx. Larger databases with extended follow up are needed to provide insight into mutation specific risks of selected carriers in BRCA2 families. PMID:16141007

  20. AN INFORMATIC APPROACH TO ESTIMATING ECOLOGICAL RISKS POSED BY PHARMACEUTICAL USE

    EPA Science Inventory

    A new method for estimating risks of human prescription pharmaceuticals based on information found in regulatory filings as well as scientific and trade literature is described in a presentation at the Pharmaceuticals in the Environment Workshop in Las Vegas, NV, August 23-25, 20...

  1. Prevalence Estimates of Health Risk Behaviors of Immigrant Latino Men Who Have Sex with Men

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rhodes, Scott D.; McCoy, Thomas P.; Hergenrather, Kenneth C.; Vissman, Aaron T.; Wolfson, Mark; Alonzo, Jorge; Bloom, Fred R.; Alegria-Ortega, Jose; Eng, Eugenia

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: Little is known about the health status of rural immigrant Latino men who have sex with men (MSM). These MSM comprise a subpopulation that tends to remain "hidden" from both researchers and practitioners. This study was designed to estimate the prevalence of tobacco, alcohol, and drug use, and sexual risk behaviors of Latino MSM…

  2. Validation of the absolute renal risk of dialysis/death in adults with IgA nephropathy secondary to Henoch-Schönlein purpura: a monocentric cohort study

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background We established earlier the absolute renal risk (ARR) of dialysis/death (D/D) in primary IgA nephropathy (IgAN) which permitted accurate prospective prediction of final prognosis. This ARR was based on the potential presence at initial diagnosis of three major, independent, and equipotent risk factors such as hypertension, quantitative proteinuria ≥ 1 g per day, and severe pathological lesions appreciated by our local classification scoring ≥ 8 (range 0–20). We studied the validity of this ARR concept in secondary IgAN to predict future outcome and focused on Henoch-Schönlein purpura (HSP) nephritis. Methods Our cohort of adults IgAN concerned 1064 patients with 101 secondary IgAN and was focused on 74 HSP (59 men) with a mean age of 38.6 at initial diagnosis and a mean follow-up of 11.8 years. Three major risk factors: hypertension, proteinuria ≥1 g/d, and severe pathological lesions appreciated by our global optical score ≥8 (GOS integrated all elementary histological lesions), were studied at biopsy-proven diagnosis and their presence defined the ARR scoring: 0 for none present, 3 for all present, 1 or 2 for the presence of any 1 or 2 risk factors. The primary end-point was composite with occurrence of dialysis or death before (D/D). We used classical statistics and both time-dependent Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier survival curve methods. Results The cumulative rate of D/D at 10 and 20 years post-onset was respectively 0 and 14% for ARR = 0 (23 patients); 10 and 23% for ARR = 1 (N = 19); 27 and 33% for ARR = 2 (N = 24); and 81 and 100% (before 20 y) in the 8 patients with ARR = 3 (P = 0.0007). Prediction at time of diagnosis (time zero) of 10y cumulative rate of D/D event was 0% for ARR = 0, 10% for ARR = 1, 33% for ARR = 2, and 100% by 8.5y for ARR = 3 (P = 0.0003) in this adequately treated cohort. Conclusion This study clearly validates the Absolute Renal Risk of Dialysis

  3. Electronic Absolute Cartesian Autocollimator

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Leviton, Douglas B.

    2006-01-01

    An electronic absolute Cartesian autocollimator performs the same basic optical function as does a conventional all-optical or a conventional electronic autocollimator but differs in the nature of its optical target and the manner in which the position of the image of the target is measured. The term absolute in the name of this apparatus reflects the nature of the position measurement, which, unlike in a conventional electronic autocollimator, is based absolutely on the position of the image rather than on an assumed proportionality between the position and the levels of processed analog electronic signals. The term Cartesian in the name of this apparatus reflects the nature of its optical target. Figure 1 depicts the electronic functional blocks of an electronic absolute Cartesian autocollimator along with its basic optical layout, which is the same as that of a conventional autocollimator. Referring first to the optical layout and functions only, this or any autocollimator is used to measure the compound angular deviation of a flat datum mirror with respect to the optical axis of the autocollimator itself. The optical components include an illuminated target, a beam splitter, an objective or collimating lens, and a viewer or detector (described in more detail below) at a viewing plane. The target and the viewing planes are focal planes of the lens. Target light reflected by the datum mirror is imaged on the viewing plane at unit magnification by the collimating lens. If the normal to the datum mirror is parallel to the optical axis of the autocollimator, then the target image is centered on the viewing plane. Any angular deviation of the normal from the optical axis manifests itself as a lateral displacement of the target image from the center. The magnitude of the displacement is proportional to the focal length and to the magnitude (assumed to be small) of the angular deviation. The direction of the displacement is perpendicular to the axis about which the

  4. Challenges in Obtaining Estimates of the Risk of Tuberculosis Infection During Overseas Deployment.

    PubMed

    Mancuso, James D; Geurts, Mia

    2015-12-01

    Estimates of the risk of tuberculosis (TB) infection resulting from overseas deployment among U.S. military service members have varied widely, and have been plagued by methodological problems. The purpose of this study was to estimate the incidence of TB infection in the U.S. military resulting from deployment. Three populations were examined: 1) a unit of 2,228 soldiers redeploying from Iraq in 2008, 2) a cohort of 1,978 soldiers followed up over 5 years after basic training at Fort Jackson in 2009, and 3) 6,062 participants in the 2011-2012 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). The risk of TB infection in the deployed population was low-0.6% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.1-2.3%)-and was similar to the non-deployed population. The prevalence of latent TB infection (LTBI) in the U.S. population was not significantly different among deployed and non-deployed veterans and those with no military service. The limitations of these retrospective studies highlight the challenge in obtaining valid estimates of risk using retrospective data and the need for a more definitive study. Similar to civilian long-term travelers, risks for TB infection during deployment are focal in nature, and testing should be targeted to only those at increased risk.

  5. Challenges in Obtaining Estimates of the Risk of Tuberculosis Infection during Overseas Deployment

    PubMed Central

    Mancuso, James D.; Geurts, Mia

    2015-01-01

    Estimates of the risk of tuberculosis (TB) infection resulting from overseas deployment among U.S. military service members have varied widely, and have been plagued by methodological problems. The purpose of this study was to estimate the incidence of TB infection in the U.S. military resulting from deployment. Three populations were examined: 1) a unit of 2,228 soldiers redeploying from Iraq in 2008, 2) a cohort of 1,978 soldiers followed up over 5 years after basic training at Fort Jackson in 2009, and 3) 6,062 participants in the 2011–2012 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). The risk of TB infection in the deployed population was low—0.6% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.1–2.3%)—and was similar to the non-deployed population. The prevalence of latent TB infection (LTBI) in the U.S. population was not significantly different among deployed and non-deployed veterans and those with no military service. The limitations of these retrospective studies highlight the challenge in obtaining valid estimates of risk using retrospective data and the need for a more definitive study. Similar to civilian long-term travelers, risks for TB infection during deployment are focal in nature, and testing should be targeted to only those at increased risk. PMID:26416114

  6. Hip fracture risk estimation based on principal component analysis of QCT atlas: a preliminary study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Wenjun; Kornak, John; Harris, Tamara; Lu, Ying; Cheng, Xiaoguang; Lang, Thomas

    2009-02-01

    We aim to capture and apply 3-dimensional bone fragility features for fracture risk estimation. Using inter-subject image registration, we constructed a hip QCT atlas comprising 37 patients with hip fractures and 38 age-matched controls. In the hip atlas space, we performed principal component analysis to identify the principal components (eigen images) that showed association with hip fracture. To develop and test a hip fracture risk model based on the principal components, we randomly divided the 75 QCT scans into two groups, one serving as the training set and the other as the test set. We applied this model to estimate a fracture risk index for each test subject, and used the fracture risk indices to discriminate the fracture patients and controls. To evaluate the fracture discrimination efficacy, we performed ROC analysis and calculated the AUC (area under curve). When using the first group as the training group and the second as the test group, the AUC was 0.880, compared to conventional fracture risk estimation methods based on bone densitometry, which had AUC values ranging between 0.782 and 0.871. When using the second group as the training group, the AUC was 0.839, compared to densitometric methods with AUC values ranging between 0.767 and 0.807. Our results demonstrate that principal components derived from hip QCT atlas are associated with hip fracture. Use of such features may provide new quantitative measures of interest to osteoporosis.

  7. The economic value of fatal and non-fatal occupational risks in Mexico City using actuarial- and perceived-risk estimates.

    PubMed

    Hammitt, James K; Ibarrarán, María Eugenia

    2006-12-01

    Compensating wage differentials are used to estimate marginal rates of substitution between income and both fatal and non-fatal occupational-injury risks in the Mexico City metropolitan area. Data are obtained by in-person survey of almost 600 workers and include workers' perceived risks of fatal and non-fatal occupational injury supplemented by actuarial-risk estimates from government statistics. Results using both actuarial- and perceived-risk estimates are reasonably consistent. Estimates of the value per statistical life are between 235,000 US dollars and 325,000 US dollars and estimates of the value per statistical non-fatal injury are between 3500 US dollars and 11,000 US dollars (2002 US dollars). These values are much smaller than corresponding estimates for higher-income countries but are compatible with the small number of prior estimates for lower-income countries.

  8. Value at risk estimation with entropy-based wavelet analysis in exchange markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Kaijian; Wang, Lijun; Zou, Yingchao; Lai, Kin Keung

    2014-08-01

    In recent years, exchange markets are increasingly integrated together. Fluctuations and risks across different exchange markets exhibit co-moving and complex dynamics. In this paper we propose the entropy-based multivariate wavelet based approaches to analyze the multiscale characteristic in the multidimensional domain and improve further the Value at Risk estimation reliability. Wavelet analysis has been introduced to construct the entropy-based Multiscale Portfolio Value at Risk estimation algorithm to account for the multiscale dynamic correlation. The entropy measure has been proposed as the more effective measure with the error minimization principle to select the best basis when determining the wavelet families and the decomposition level to use. The empirical studies conducted in this paper have provided positive evidence as to the superior performance of the proposed approach, using the closely related Chinese Renminbi and European Euro exchange market.

  9. Non-parametric estimation of relative risk in survival and associated tests.

    PubMed

    Wakounig, Samo; Heinze, Georg; Schemper, Michael

    2015-12-01

    We extend the Tarone and Ware scheme of weighted log-rank tests to cover the associated weighted Mantel-Haenszel estimators of relative risk. Weighting functions previously employed are critically reviewed. The notion of an average hazard ratio is defined and its connection to the effect size measure P(Y > X) is emphasized. The connection makes estimation of P(Y > X) possible also under censoring. Two members of the extended Tarone-Ware scheme accomplish the estimation of intuitively interpretable average hazard ratios, also under censoring and time-varying relative risk which is achieved by an inverse probability of censoring weighting. The empirical properties of the members of the extended Tarone-Ware scheme are demonstrated by a Monte Carlo study. The differential role of the weighting functions considered is illustrated by a comparative analysis of four real data sets.

  10. Prevalence Estimates of Health Risk Behaviors of Immigrant Latino Men Who Have Sex With Men

    PubMed Central

    Rhodes, Scott D.; McCoy, Thomas P.; Hergenrather, Kenneth C.; Vissman, Aaron T.; Wolfson, Mark; Alonzo, Jorge; Bloom, Fred R.; Alegría-Ortega, Jose; Eng, Eugenia

    2011-01-01

    Purpose Little is known about the health status of rural immigrant Latino men who have sex with men (MSM). These MSM comprise a subpopulation that tends to remain “hidden” from both researchers and practitioners. This study was designed to estimate the prevalence of tobacco, alcohol, and drug use, and sexual risk behaviors of Latino MSM living in rural North Carolina. Methods A community-based participatory research (CBPR) partnership used respondent-driven sampling (RDS) to identify, recruit, and enroll Latino MSM to participate in an interviewer-administered behavioral assessment. RDS weighted prevalence of risk behaviors was estimated using the RDS Analysis Tool. Data collection occurred in 2008. Results A total of 190 Latino MSM was reached; the average age was 25.5 years old and nearly 80% reported being from Mexico. Prevalence estimates of smoking everyday and past 30-day heavy episodic drinking were 6.5% and 35.0%, respectively. Prevalence estimates of past 12-month marijuana and cocaine use were 56.0% and 27.1%, respectively. Past 3-month prevalence estimates of sex with at least one woman, multiple male partners, and inconsistent condom use were 21.2%, 88.9%, and 54.1%, respectively. Conclusions Respondents had low rates of tobacco use and club drug use, and high rates of sexual risk behaviors. Although this study represents an initial step in documenting the health risk behaviors of immigrant Latino MSM who are part of a new trend in Latino immigration to the southeastern US, a need exists for further research, including longitudinal studies to understand the trajectory of risk behavior among immigrant Latino MSM. PMID:22236317

  11. Estimates of Prevalence and Risk Associated with Inattention and Distraction Based Upon In Situ Naturalistic Data

    PubMed Central

    Dingus, Thomas A.

    2014-01-01

    By using in situ naturalistic driving data, estimates of prevalence and risk can be made regarding driver populations’ secondary task distractions and crash rates. Through metadata analysis, three populations of drivers (i.e., adult light vehicle, teenaged light vehicle, and adult heavy vehicle) were compared regarding frequency of secondary task behavior and the associated risk for safety-critical incidents. Relative risk estimates provide insight into the risk associated with engaging in a single task. When such risk is considered in combination with frequency of use, it sheds additional light on those secondary tasks that create the greatest overall risk to driving safety. The results show that secondary tasks involving manual typing, texting, dialing, reaching for an object, or reading are dangerous for all three populations. Additionally, novice teen drivers have difficulty in several tasks that the other two populations do not, including eating and external distractions. Truck drivers also perform a number of risky “mobile office” types of tasks, including writing, not seen in the other populations. Implications are described for policy makers and designers of in-vehicle and nomadic, portable systems. PMID:24776227

  12. Estimates of auditory risk from outdoor impulse noise. II: Civilian firearms.

    PubMed

    Flamme, Gregory A; Wong, Adam; Liebe, Kevin; Lynd, James

    2009-01-01

    Firearm impulses are common noise exposures in the United States. This study records, describes and analyzes impulses produced outdoors by civilian firearms with respect to the amount of auditory risk they pose to the unprotected listener under various listening conditions. Risk estimates were obtained using three contemporary damage risk criteria (DRC) including a waveform parameter-based approach (peak SPL and B-duration), an energy-based criterion (A-weighted SEL and equivalent continuous level) and a physiological model (AHAAH). Results from these DRC were converted into a number of maximum permissible unprotected exposures to facilitate interpretation. Acoustic characteristics of firearm impulses differed substantially across guns, ammunition, and microphone location. The type of gun, ammunition and the microphone location all significantly affected estimates of auditory risk from firearms. Vast differences in maximum permissible exposures were observed; the rank order of the differences varied with the source of the impulse. Unprotected exposure to firearm noise is not recommended, but people electing to fire a gun without hearing protection should be advised to minimize auditory risk through careful selection of ammunition and shooting environment. Small-caliber guns with long barrels and guns loaded with the least powerful ammunition tend to be associated with the least auditory risk.

  13. Estimating risks of heat strain by age and sex: a population-level simulation model.

    PubMed

    Glass, Kathryn; Tait, Peter W; Hanna, Elizabeth G; Dear, Keith

    2015-05-18

    Individuals living in hot climates face health risks from hyperthermia due to excessive heat. Heat strain is influenced by weather exposure and by individual characteristics such as age, sex, body size, and occupation. To explore the population-level drivers of heat strain, we developed a simulation model that scales up individual risks of heat storage (estimated using Myrup and Morgan's man model "MANMO") to a large population. Using Australian weather data, we identify high-risk weather conditions together with individual characteristics that increase the risk of heat stress under these conditions. The model identifies elevated risks in children and the elderly, with females aged 75 and older those most likely to experience heat strain. Risk of heat strain in males does not increase as rapidly with age, but is greatest on hot days with high solar radiation. Although cloudy days are less dangerous for the wider population, older women still have an elevated risk of heat strain on hot cloudy days or when indoors during high temperatures. Simulation models provide a valuable method for exploring population level risks of heat strain, and a tool for evaluating public health and other government policy interventions.

  14. Impact of provision of cardiovascular disease risk estimates to healthcare professionals and patients: a systematic review

    PubMed Central

    Usher-Smith, Juliet A; Silarova, Barbora; Schuit, Ewoud; GM Moons, Karel; Griffin, Simon J

    2015-01-01

    Objective To systematically review whether the provision of information on cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk to healthcare professionals and patients impacts their decision-making, behaviour and ultimately patient health. Design A systematic review. Data sources An electronic literature search of MEDLINE and PubMed from 01/01/2004 to 01/06/2013 with no language restriction and manual screening of reference lists of systematic reviews on similar topics and all included papers. Eligibility criteria for selecting studies (1) Primary research published in a peer-reviewed journal; (2) inclusion of participants with no history of CVD; (3) intervention strategy consisted of provision of a CVD risk model estimate to either professionals or patients; and (4) the only difference between the intervention group and control group (or the only intervention in the case of before-after studies) was the provision of a CVD risk model estimate. Results After duplicates were removed, the initial electronic search identified 9671 papers. We screened 196 papers at title and abstract level and included 17 studies. The heterogeneity of the studies limited the analysis, but together they showed that provision of risk information to patients improved the accuracy of risk perception without decreasing quality of life or increasing anxiety, but had little effect on lifestyle. Providing risk information to physicians increased prescribing of lipid-lowering and blood pressure medication, with greatest effects in those with CVD risk >20% (relative risk for change in prescribing 2.13 (1.02 to 4.63) and 2.38 (1.11 to 5.10) respectively). Overall, there was a trend towards reductions in cholesterol and blood pressure and a statistically significant reduction in modelled CVD risk (−0.39% (−0.71 to −0.07)) after, on average, 12 months. Conclusions There seems evidence that providing CVD risk model estimates to professionals and patients improves perceived CVD risk and medical prescribing

  15. Health risk estimates for groundwater and soil contamination in the Slovak Republic: a convenient tool for identification and mapping of risk areas.

    PubMed

    Fajčíková, K; Cvečková, V; Stewart, A; Rapant, S

    2014-10-01

    We undertook a quantitative estimation of health risks to residents living in the Slovak Republic and exposed to contaminated groundwater (ingestion by adult population) and/or soils (ingestion by adult and child population). Potential risk areas were mapped to give a visual presentation at basic administrative units of the country (municipalities, districts, regions) for easy discussion with policy and decision-makers. The health risk estimates were calculated by US EPA methods, applying threshold values for chronic risk and non-threshold values for cancer risk. The potential health risk was evaluated for As, Ba, Cd, Cu, F, Hg, Mn, NO3 (-), Pb, Sb, Se and Zn for groundwater and As, B, Ba, Be, Cd, Cu, F, Hg, Mn, Mo, Ni, Pb, Sb, Se and Zn for soils. An increased health risk was identified mainly in historical mining areas highly contaminated by geogenic-anthropogenic sources (ore deposit occurrence, mining, metallurgy). Arsenic and antimony were the most significant elements in relation to health risks from groundwater and soil contamination in the Slovak Republic contributing a significant part of total chronic risk levels. Health risk estimation for soil contamination has highlighted the significance of exposure through soil ingestion in children. Increased cancer risks from groundwater and soil contamination by arsenic were noted in several municipalities and districts throughout the country in areas with significantly high arsenic levels in the environment. This approach to health risk estimations and visualization represents a fast, clear and convenient tool for delineation of risk areas at national and local levels.

  16. European risk assessment of LAS in agricultural soil revisited: species sensitivity distribution and risk estimates.

    PubMed

    Jensen, John; Smith, Stephen R; Krogh, Paul Henning; Versteeg, Donald J; Temara, Ali

    2007-10-01

    Linear alkylbenzene sulphonate (LAS) is used at a rate of approximately 430,000 tons/y in Western Europe, mainly in laundry detergents. It is present in sewage sludge (70-5,600 mg/kg; 5-95th percentile) because of its high usage per capita, its sorption and precipitation in primary settlers, and its lack of degradation in anaerobic digesters. Immediately after amendment, calculated and measured concentrations are <1 to 60 mg LAS/kg soil. LAS biodegrades rapidly in soil with primary and ultimate half-lives of up to 7 and 30 days, respectively. Calculated residual concentrations after the averaging time (30 days) are 0.24-18 mg LAS/kg soil. The long-term ecotoxicity to soil microbiota is relatively low (EC10 >or=26 mg sludge-associated LAS/kg soil). An extensive review of the invertebrate and plant ecotoxicological data, combined with a probabilistic assessment approach, led to a PNEC value of 35 mg LAS/kg soil, i.e. the 5th percentile (HC5) of the species sensitivity distribution (lognormal distribution of the EC10 and NOEC values). Risk ratios were identified to fall within a range of 0.01 (median LAS concentration in sludge) to 0.1 (95th percentile) and always below 0.5 (maximum LAS concentration measured in sludge) according to various scenarios covering different factors such as local sewage influent concentration, water hardness, and sewage sludge stabilisation process. Based on the present information, it can be concluded that LAS does not represent an ecological risk in Western Europe when applied via normal sludge amendment to agricultural soil.

  17. Radiobiologic risk estimation from dental radiology. Part II. Cancer incidence and fatality

    SciTech Connect

    Underhill, T.E.; Kimura, K.; Chilvarquer, I.; McDavid, W.D.; Langlais, R.P.; Preece, J.W.; Barnwell, G.

    1988-08-01

    With the use of the measured absorbed doses from part I of this article, the specific radiobiologic risk to the patient from (1) five different panoramic machines with rare-earth screens, (2) a 20-film complete-mouth survey with E-speed film, long round cone, (3) a 20-film complete-mouth survey with E-speed film, long rectangular cone, (4) a 4-film interproximal survey with E-speed film, long round cone, and (5) a 4-film interproximal survey with E-speed film, long rectangular cone, was calculated. The estimated risks are expressed in two ways: the probability of radiation-induced cancer in specific organs per million examinations and the probability of expression of a fatal cancer per million examinations. The highest risks calculated were from the complete-mouth survey with the use of round collimation. The lowest risks calculated were from panoramic radiography and four interproximal radiographs with rectangular collimation.

  18. Risk estimators for radiation-induced bone marrow syndrome lethality in humans

    SciTech Connect

    Scott, B.R.; Hahn, F.F.; McClellan, R.O.; Seiler, F.A.

    1988-09-01

    This manuscript provides risk estimators for acute lethality from radiation-induced injury to the bone marrow of humans after uniform total-body exposure to low linear energy transfer (LET) radiation. The risk estimators are needed for nuclear disaster risk assessment. The approach used is based on the dose X, in units of D50 (i.e., the dose required for 50% lethality). Using animal data, it is demonstrated that the use of dose in units of D50 eliminates most of the variability associated with mammalian species, type of low-LET radiation, and low-LET dose rate. Animal data are used to determine the shape of the dose-effect curve for marrow-syndrome lethality in man and to develop a functional relationship for the dependence of the D50 on dose rate. The functional relationship is used, along with the Weibull model, to develop acute lethality risk estimators for complex temporal patterns of continuous exposure to low-LET radiation. Animal data are used to test model predictions.

  19. A Methodological Approach to Small Area Estimation for the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System

    PubMed Central

    Xu, Fang; Wallace, Robyn C.; Garvin, William; Greenlund, Kurt J.; Bartoli, William; Ford, Derek; Eke, Paul; Town, G. Machell

    2016-01-01

    Public health researchers have used a class of statistical methods to calculate prevalence estimates for small geographic areas with few direct observations. Many researchers have used Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) data as a basis for their models. The aims of this study were to 1) describe a new BRFSS small area estimation (SAE) method and 2) investigate the internal and external validity of the BRFSS SAEs it produced. The BRFSS SAE method uses 4 data sets (the BRFSS, the American Community Survey Public Use Microdata Sample, Nielsen Claritas population totals, and the Missouri Census Geographic Equivalency File) to build a single weighted data set. Our findings indicate that internal and external validity tests were successful across many estimates. The BRFSS SAE method is one of several methods that can be used to produce reliable prevalence estimates in small geographic areas. PMID:27418213

  20. Underestimating the Alcohol Content of a Glass of Wine: The Implications for Estimates of Mortality Risk

    PubMed Central

    Britton, Annie; O’Neill, Darragh; Bell, Steven

    2016-01-01

    Aims Increases in glass sizes and wine strength over the last 25 years in the UK are likely to have led to an underestimation of alcohol intake in population studies. We explore whether this probable misclassification affects the association between average alcohol intake and risk of mortality from all causes, cardiovascular disease and cancer. Methods Self-reported alcohol consumption in 1997–1999 among 7010 men and women in the Whitehall II cohort of British civil servants was linked to the risk of mortality until mid-2015. A conversion factor of 8 g of alcohol per wine glass (1 unit) was compared with a conversion of 16 g per wine glass (2 units). Results When applying a higher alcohol content conversion for wine consumption, the proportion of heavy/very heavy drinkers increased from 28% to 41% for men and 15% to 28% for women. There was a significantly increased risk of very heavy drinking compared with moderate drinking for deaths from all causes and cancer before and after change in wine conversion; however, the hazard ratios were reduced when a higher wine conversion was used. Conclusions In this population-based study, assuming higher alcohol content in wine glasses changed the estimates of mortality risk. We propose that investigator-led cohorts need to revisit conversion factors based on more accurate estimates of alcohol content in wine glasses. Prospectively, researchers need to collect more detailed information on alcohol including serving sizes and strength. Short summary The alcohol content in a wine glass is likely to be underestimated in population surveys as wine strength and serving size have increased in recent years. We demonstrate that in a large cohort study, this underestimation affects estimates of mortality risk. Investigator-led cohorts need to revisit conversion factors based on more accurate estimates of alcohol content in wine glasses. PMID:27261472

  1. Fatalities in high altitude mountaineering: a review of quantitative risk estimates.

    PubMed

    Weinbruch, Stephan; Nordby, Karl-Christian

    2013-12-01

    Quantitative estimates for mortality in high altitude mountaineering are reviewed. Special emphasis is placed on the heterogeneity of the risk estimates and on confounding. Crude estimates for mortality are on the order of 1/1000 to 40/1000 persons above base camp, for both expedition members and high altitude porters. High altitude porters have mostly a lower risk than expedition members (risk ratio for all Nepalese peaks requiring an expedition permit: 0.73; 95 % confidence interval 0.59-0.89). The summit bid is generally the most dangerous part of an expedition for members, whereas most high altitude porters die during route preparation. On 8000 m peaks, the mortality during descent from summit varies between 4/1000 and 134/1000 summiteers (members plus porters). The risk estimates are confounded by human and environmental factors. Information on confounding by gender and age is contradictory and requires further work. There are indications for safety segregation of men and women, with women being more risk averse than men. Citizenship appears to be a significant confounder. Prior high altitude mountaineering experience in Nepal has no protective effect. Commercial expeditions in the Nepalese Himalayas have a lower mortality than traditional expeditions, though after controlling for confounding, the difference is not statistically significant. The overall mortality is increasing with increasing peak altitude for expedition members but not for high altitude porters. In the Nepalese Himalayas and in Alaska, a significant decrease of mortality with calendar year was observed. A few suggestions for further work are made at the end of the article.

  2. Absolute Equilibrium Entropy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shebalin, John V.

    1997-01-01

    The entropy associated with absolute equilibrium ensemble theories of ideal, homogeneous, fluid and magneto-fluid turbulence is discussed and the three-dimensional fluid case is examined in detail. A sigma-function is defined, whose minimum value with respect to global parameters is the entropy. A comparison is made between the use of global functions sigma and phase functions H (associated with the development of various H-theorems of ideal turbulence). It is shown that the two approaches are complimentary though conceptually different: H-theorems show that an isolated system tends to equilibrium while sigma-functions allow the demonstration that entropy never decreases when two previously isolated systems are combined. This provides a more complete picture of entropy in the statistical mechanics of ideal fluids.

  3. Risk estimates for deterministic health effects of inhaled weapons grade plutonium.

    PubMed

    Scott, Bobby R; Peterson, Vern L

    2003-09-01

    Risk estimates for deterministic effects of inhaled weapons-grade plutonium (WG Pu) are needed to evaluate potential serious harm to (1) U.S. Department of Energy nuclear workers from accidental or other work-place releases of WG Pu; and (2) the public from terrorist actions resulting in the release of WG Pu to the environment. Deterministic health effects (the most serious radiobiological consequences to humans) can arise when large amounts of WG Pu are taken into the body. Inhalation is considered the most likely route of intake during work-place accidents or during a nuclear terrorism incident releasing WG Pu to the environment. Our current knowledge about radiation-related harm is insufficient for generating precise estimates of risk for a given WG Pu exposure scenario. This relates largely to uncertainties associated with currently available risk and dosimetry models. Thus, rather than generating point estimates of risk, distributions that account for variability/uncertainty are needed to properly characterize potential harm to humans from a given WG Pu exposure scenario. In this manuscript, we generate and summarize risk distributions for deterministic radiation effects in the lungs of nuclear workers from inhaled WG Pu particles (standard isotopic mix). These distributions were developed using NUREG/CR-4214 risk models and time-dependent, dose conversion factor data based on Publication 30 of the International Commission on Radiological Protection. Dose conversion factors based on ICRP Publication 30 are more relevant to deterministic effects than are the dose conversion factors based on ICRP Publication 66, which relate to targets for stochastic effects. Risk distributions that account for NUREG/CR-4214 parameter and model uncertainties were generated using the Monte Carlo method. Risks were evaluated for both lethality (from radiation pneumonitis) and morbidity (due to radiation-induced respiratory dysfunction) and were found to depend strongly on absorbed

  4. Absolute multilateration between spheres

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muelaner, Jody; Wadsworth, William; Azini, Maria; Mullineux, Glen; Hughes, Ben; Reichold, Armin

    2017-04-01

    Environmental effects typically limit the accuracy of large scale coordinate measurements in applications such as aircraft production and particle accelerator alignment. This paper presents an initial design for a novel measurement technique with analysis and simulation showing that that it could overcome the environmental limitations to provide a step change in large scale coordinate measurement accuracy. Referred to as absolute multilateration between spheres (AMS), it involves using absolute distance interferometry to directly measure the distances between pairs of plain steel spheres. A large portion of each sphere remains accessible as a reference datum, while the laser path can be shielded from environmental disturbances. As a single scale bar this can provide accurate scale information to be used for instrument verification or network measurement scaling. Since spheres can be simultaneously measured from multiple directions, it also allows highly accurate multilateration-based coordinate measurements to act as a large scale datum structure for localized measurements, or to be integrated within assembly tooling, coordinate measurement machines or robotic machinery. Analysis and simulation show that AMS can be self-aligned to achieve a theoretical combined standard uncertainty for the independent uncertainties of an individual 1 m scale bar of approximately 0.49 µm. It is also shown that combined with a 1 µm m‑1 standard uncertainty in the central reference system this could result in coordinate standard uncertainty magnitudes of 42 µm over a slender 1 m by 20 m network. This would be a sufficient step change in accuracy to enable next generation aerospace structures with natural laminar flow and part-to-part interchangeability.

  5. Using a relative health indicator (RHI) metric to estimate health risk reductions in drinking water.

    PubMed

    Alfredo, Katherine A; Seidel, Chad; Ghosh, Amlan; Roberson, J Alan

    2017-03-01

    When a new drinking water regulation is being developed, the USEPA conducts a health risk reduction and cost analysis to, in part, estimate quantifiable and non-quantifiable cost and benefits of the various regulatory alternatives. Numerous methodologies are available for cumulative risk assessment ranging from primarily qualitative to primarily quantitative. This research developed a summary metric of relative cumulative health impacts resulting from drinking water, the relative health indicator (RHI). An intermediate level of quantification and modeling was chosen, one which retains the concept of an aggregated metric of public health impact and hence allows for comparisons to be made across "cups of water," but avoids the need for development and use of complex models that are beyond the existing state of the science. Using the USEPA Six-Year Review data and available national occurrence surveys of drinking water contaminants, the metric is used to test risk reduction as it pertains to the implementation of the arsenic and uranium maximum contaminant levels and quantify "meaningful" risk reduction. Uranium represented the threshold risk reduction against which national non-compliance risk reduction was compared for arsenic, nitrate, and radium. Arsenic non-compliance is most significant and efforts focused on bringing those non-compliant utilities into compliance with the 10 μg/L maximum contaminant level would meet the threshold for meaningful risk reduction.

  6. What is the significance of end-stage renal disease risk estimation in living kidney donors?

    PubMed

    Gaillard, François; Baron, Stéphanie; Timsit, Marc-Olivier; Eladari, Dominique; Fournier, Catherine; Prot-Bertoye, Caroline; Bertocchio, Jean-Philippe; Lamhaut, Lionel; Friedlander, Gérard; Méjean, Arnaud; Legendre, Christophe; Courbebaisse, Marie

    2017-02-02

    Two end-stage renal disease (ESRD) risk calculators were recently developed by Grams et al., and Ibrahim et al. to calculate ESRD risk before donation among living kidney donors. However, those calculators have never been studied among potential donors for whom donation was refused due to medical contraindications and compared to a group of donors. We compared 15-year and lifetime ESRD risk of donors and nondonors due to medical cause as estimated by those two calculators. Nondonors due to medical cause (n = 27) had a significantly higher 15-year ESRD risk compared to donors (n = 288) with both calculators (0.25 vs. 0.14, P < 0.001 for that developed by Grams et al. and 2.21 vs. 1.43, P = 0.002 for that developed by Ibrahim et al.). On the contrary, lifetime ESRD risk was not significantly different between the two groups. At both times (15 years and lifetime), we observed a significant overlap of ESRD risk between the two groups. ESRD risk calculators could be complementary to standard screening strategy but cannot be used alone to accept or decline donation.

  7. Estimating Risk of Natural Gas Portfolios by Using GARCH-EVT-Copula Model

    PubMed Central

    Tang, Jiechen; Zhou, Chao; Yuan, Xinyu; Sriboonchitta, Songsak

    2015-01-01

    This paper concentrates on estimating the risk of Title Transfer Facility (TTF) Hub natural gas portfolios by using the GARCH-EVT-copula model. We first use the univariate ARMA-GARCH model to model each natural gas return series. Second, the extreme value distribution (EVT) is fitted to the tails of the residuals to model marginal residual distributions. Third, multivariate Gaussian copula and Student t-copula are employed to describe the natural gas portfolio risk dependence structure. Finally, we simulate N portfolios and estimate value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR). Our empirical results show that, for an equally weighted portfolio of five natural gases, the VaR and CVaR values obtained from the Student t-copula are larger than those obtained from the Gaussian copula. Moreover, when minimizing the portfolio risk, the optimal natural gas portfolio weights are found to be similar across the multivariate Gaussian copula and Student t-copula and different confidence levels. PMID:26351652

  8. Estimating Risk of Natural Gas Portfolios by Using GARCH-EVT-Copula Model.

    PubMed

    Tang, Jiechen; Zhou, Chao; Yuan, Xinyu; Sriboonchitta, Songsak

    2015-01-01

    This paper concentrates on estimating the risk of Title Transfer Facility (TTF) Hub natural gas portfolios by using the GARCH-EVT-copula model. We first use the univariate ARMA-GARCH model to model each natural gas return series. Second, the extreme value distribution (EVT) is fitted to the tails of the residuals to model marginal residual distributions. Third, multivariate Gaussian copula and Student t-copula are employed to describe the natural gas portfolio risk dependence structure. Finally, we simulate N portfolios and estimate value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR). Our empirical results show that, for an equally weighted portfolio of five natural gases, the VaR and CVaR values obtained from the Student t-copula are larger than those obtained from the Gaussian copula. Moreover, when minimizing the portfolio risk, the optimal natural gas portfolio weights are found to be similar across the multivariate Gaussian copula and Student t-copula and different confidence levels.

  9. Risk-Targeted Selection of Agricultural Holdings for Post-Epidemic Surveillance: Estimation of Efficiency Gains

    PubMed Central

    Handel, Ian G.; de C. Bronsvoort, Barend M.; Forbes, John F.; Woolhouse, Mark E. J.

    2011-01-01

    Current post-epidemic sero-surveillance uses random selection of animal holdings. A better strategy may be to estimate the benefits gained by sampling each farm and use this to target selection. In this study we estimate the probability of undiscovered infection for sheep farms in Devon after the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease outbreak using the combination of a previously published model of daily infection risk and a simple model of probability of discovery of infection during the outbreak. This allows comparison of the system sensitivity (ability to detect infection in the area) of arbitrary, random sampling compared to risk-targeted selection across a full range of sampling budgets. We show that it is possible to achieve 95% system sensitivity by sampling, on average, 945 farms with random sampling and 184 farms with risk-targeted sampling. We also examine the effect of ordering samples by risk to expedite return to a disease-free status. Risk ordering the sampling process results in detection of positive farms, if present, 15.6 days sooner than with randomly ordered sampling, assuming 50 farms are tested per day. PMID:21674022

  10. Methods for estimation of radiation risk in epidemiological studies accounting for classical and Berkson errors in doses.

    PubMed

    Kukush, Alexander; Shklyar, Sergiy; Masiuk, Sergii; Likhtarov, Illya; Kovgan, Lina; Carroll, Raymond J; Bouville, Andre

    2011-02-16

    With a binary response Y, the dose-response model under consideration is logistic in flavor with pr(Y=1 | D) = R (1+R)(-1), R = λ(0) + EAR D, where λ(0) is the baseline incidence rate and EAR is the excess absolute risk per gray. The calculated thyroid dose of a person i is expressed as Dimes=fiQi(mes)/Mi(mes). Here, Qi(mes) is the measured content of radioiodine in the thyroid gland of person i at time t(mes), Mi(mes) is the estimate of the thyroid mass, and f(i) is the normalizing multiplier. The Q(i) and M(i) are measured with multiplicative errors Vi(Q) and ViM, so that Qi(mes)=Qi(tr)Vi(Q) (this is classical measurement error model) and Mi(tr)=Mi(mes)Vi(M) (this is Berkson measurement error model). Here, Qi(tr) is the true content of radioactivity in the thyroid gland, and Mi(tr) is the true value of the thyroid mass. The error in f(i) is much smaller than the errors in ( Qi(mes), Mi(mes)) and ignored in the analysis. By means of Parametric Full Maximum Likelihood and Regression Calibration (under the assumption that the data set of true doses has lognormal distribution), Nonparametric Full Maximum Likelihood, Nonparametric Regression Calibration, and by properly tuned SIMEX method we study the influence of measurement errors in thyroid dose on the estimates of λ(0) and EAR. The simulation study is presented based on a real sample from the epidemiological studies. The doses were reconstructed in the framework of the Ukrainian-American project on the investigation of Post-Chernobyl thyroid cancers in Ukraine, and the underlying subpolulation was artificially enlarged in order to increase the statistical power. The true risk parameters were given by the values to earlier epidemiological studies, and then the binary response was simulated according to the dose-response model.

  11. Performance of the modified Poisson regression approach for estimating relative risks from clustered prospective data.

    PubMed

    Yelland, Lisa N; Salter, Amy B; Ryan, Philip

    2011-10-15

    Modified Poisson regression, which combines a log Poisson regression model with robust variance estimation, is a useful alternative to log binomial regression for estimating relative risks. Previous studies have shown both analytically and by simulation that modified Poisson regression is appropriate for independent prospective data. This method is often applied to clustered prospective data, despite a lack of evidence to support its use in this setting. The purpose of this article is to evaluate the performance of the modified Poisson regression approach for estimating relative risks from clustered prospective data, by using generalized estimating equations to account for clustering. A simulation study is conducted to compare log binomial regression and modified Poisson regression for analyzing clustered data from intervention and observational studies. Both methods generally perform well in terms of bias, type I error, and coverage. Unlike log binomial regression, modified Poisson regression is not prone to convergence problems. The methods are contrasted by using example data sets from 2 large studies. The results presented in this article support the use of modified Poisson regression as an alternative to log binomial regression for analyzing clustered prospective data when clustering is taken into account by using generalized estimating equations.

  12. Muscle Mass and Body Fat in Relation to Cardiovascular Risk Estimation and Lipid-Lowering Eligibility.

    PubMed

    Lee, Kayoung

    2016-12-06

    This cross-sectional population-based study aimed to evaluate the relationships of muscle-mass and body-fat phenotypes to 10-yr risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events and eligibility for lipid management. Participants were Korean adults (N = 7315; 3163 men, 4152 women) aged 40-79 yr, free from stroke and coronary heart disease, who provided complete data for estimating 10-yr CVD risk and body composition during the Fifth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2009-2010). Four levels of combined muscle mass and body fat were determined using sex-specific quintiles of appendicular skeletal muscle mass divided by height squared, and sex-specific quintiles of total body fat percentage. Ten-year CVD risk was calculated using Pooled Cohort Equations and Framingham risk scores. Lipid-lowering medication eligibility was determined using American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) and Adult Treatment Panel (ATP) III guidelines. Compared with the reference group, the risk of CVD events was higher in men with low muscle mass, high body fat, or the 2 factors combined. CVD risk was lower in women with low muscle mass, higher in women with high body fat, and nonsignificant in women with the 2 factors. Participants with low muscle mass and high body fat had higher odds for medication eligibility using the ACC/AHA guidelines but not the ATP III guidelines. Higher estimated 10-yr CVD risk was associated with combined phenotypes of low muscle mass and high fat in men but not in women. Also, the relationship of these phenotypes to lipid-lowering medication eligibility was guideline-specific.

  13. A Global Forecast of Absolute Poverty and Employment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hopkins, M. J. D.

    1980-01-01

    Estimates are made of absolute poverty and employment under the hypothesis that existing trends continue. Concludes that while the number of people in absolute poverty is not likely to decline by 2000, the proportion will fall. Jobs will have to grow 3.9% per year in developing countries to achieve full employment. (JOW)

  14. 49 CFR Appendix G to Part 222 - Excess Risk Estimates for Public Highway-Rail Grade Crossings

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Excess Risk Estimates for Public Highway-Rail Grade Crossings G Appendix G to Part 222 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation... HIGHWAY-RAIL GRADE CROSSINGS Pt. 222, App. G Appendix G to Part 222—Excess Risk Estimates for...

  15. Estimating the risks of cancer mortality and genetic defects resulting from exposures to low levels of ionizing radiation

    SciTech Connect

    Buhl, T.E.; Hansen, W.R.

    1984-05-01

    Estimators for calculating the risk of cancer and genetic disorders induced by exposure to ionizing radiation have been recommended by the US National Academy of Sciences Committee on the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiations, the UN Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation, and the International Committee on Radiological Protection. These groups have also considered the risks of somatic effects other than cancer. The US National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements has discussed risk estimate procedures for radiation-induced health effects. The recommendations of these national and international advisory committees are summarized and compared in this report. Based on this review, two procedures for risk estimation are presented for use in radiological assessments performed by the US Department of Energy under the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA). In the first procedure, age- and sex-averaged risk estimators calculated with US average demographic statistics would be used with estimates of radiation dose to calculate the projected risk of cancer and genetic disorders that would result from the operation being reviewed under NEPA. If more site-specific risk estimators are needed, and the demographic information is available, a second procedure is described that would involve direct calculation of the risk estimators using recommended risk-rate factors. The computer program REPCAL has been written to perform this calculation and is described in this report. 25 references, 16 tables.

  16. Parametric estimation of P(X > Y) for normal distributions in the context of probabilistic environmental risk assessment

    PubMed Central

    Bekker, Andriëtte A.; van der Voet, Hilko; ter Braak, Cajo J.F.

    2015-01-01

    Estimating the risk, P(X > Y), in probabilistic environmental risk assessment of nanoparticles is a problem when confronted by potentially small risks and small sample sizes of the exposure concentration X and/or the effect concentration Y. This is illustrated in the motivating case study of aquatic risk assessment of nano-Ag. A non-parametric estimator based on data alone is not sufficient as it is limited by sample size. In this paper, we investigate the maximum gain possible when making strong parametric assumptions as opposed to making no parametric assumptions at all. We compare maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimators with the non-parametric estimator and study the influence of sample size and risk on the (interval) estimators via simulation. We found that the parametric estimators enable us to estimate and bound the risk for smaller sample sizes and small risks. Also, the Bayesian estimator outperforms the maximum likelihood estimators in terms of coverage and interval lengths and is, therefore, preferred in our motivating case study. PMID:26312175

  17. Parametric estimation of P(X > Y) for normal distributions in the context of probabilistic environmental risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Jacobs, Rianne; Bekker, Andriëtte A; van der Voet, Hilko; Ter Braak, Cajo J F

    2015-01-01

    Estimating the risk, P(X > Y), in probabilistic environmental risk assessment of nanoparticles is a problem when confronted by potentially small risks and small sample sizes of the exposure concentration X and/or the effect concentration Y. This is illustrated in the motivating case study of aquatic risk assessment of nano-Ag. A non-parametric estimator based on data alone is not sufficient as it is limited by sample size. In this paper, we investigate the maximum gain possible when making strong parametric assumptions as opposed to making no parametric assumptions at all. We compare maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimators with the non-parametric estimator and study the influence of sample size and risk on the (interval) estimators via simulation. We found that the parametric estimators enable us to estimate and bound the risk for smaller sample sizes and small risks. Also, the Bayesian estimator outperforms the maximum likelihood estimators in terms of coverage and interval lengths and is, therefore, preferred in our motivating case study.

  18. Uncertainties in estimating health risks associated with exposure to ionising radiation.

    PubMed

    Preston, R Julian; Boice, John D; Brill, A Bertrand; Chakraborty, Ranajit; Conolly, Rory; Hoffman, F Owen; Hornung, Richard W; Kocher, David C; Land, Charles E; Shore, Roy E; Woloschak, Gayle E

    2013-09-01

    The information for the present discussion on the uncertainties associated with estimation of radiation risks and probability of disease causation was assembled for the recently published NCRP Report No. 171 on this topic. This memorandum provides a timely overview of the topic, given that quantitative uncertainty analysis is the state of the art in health risk assessment and given its potential importance to developments in radiation protection. Over the past decade the increasing volume of epidemiology data and the supporting radiobiology findings have aided in the reduction of uncertainty in the risk estimates derived. However, it is equally apparent that there remain significant uncertainties related to dose assessment, low dose and low dose-rate extrapolation approaches (e.g. the selection of an appropriate dose and dose-rate effectiveness factor), the biological effectiveness where considerations of the health effects of high-LET and lower-energy low-LET radiations are required and the transfer of risks from a population for which health effects data are available to one for which such data are not available. The impact of radiation on human health has focused in recent years on cancer, although there has been a decided increase in the data for noncancer effects together with more reliable estimates of the risk following radiation exposure, even at relatively low doses (notably for cataracts and cardiovascular disease). New approaches for the estimation of hereditary risk have been developed with the use of human data whenever feasible, although the current estimates of heritable radiation effects still are based on mouse data because of an absence of effects in human studies. Uncertainties associated with estimation of these different types of health effects are discussed in a qualitative and semi-quantitative manner as appropriate. The way forward would seem to require additional epidemiological studies, especially studies of low dose and low dose

  19. Quantitative Cyber Risk Reduction Estimation Methodology for a Small Scada Control System

    SciTech Connect

    Miles A. McQueen; Wayne F. Boyer; Mark A. Flynn; George A. Beitel

    2006-01-01

    We propose a new methodology for obtaining a quick quantitative measurement of the risk reduction achieved when a control system is modified with the intent to improve cyber security defense against external attackers. The proposed methodology employs a directed graph called a compromise graph, where the nodes represent stages of a potential attack and the edges represent the expected time-to-compromise for differing attacker skill levels. Time-to-compromise is modeled as a function of known vulnerabilities and attacker skill level. The methodology was used to calculate risk reduction estimates for a specific SCADA system and for a specific set of control system security remedial actions. Despite an 86% reduction in the total number of vulnerabilities, the estimated time-to-compromise was increased only by about 3 to 30% depending on target and attacker skill level.

  20. Non-parametric estimation of bivariate failure time associations in the presence of a competing risk.

    PubMed

    Bandeen-Roche, Karen; Ning, Jing

    2008-03-01

    Most research on the study of associations among paired failure times has either assumed time invariance or been based on complex measures or estimators. Little has accommodated competing risks. This paper targets the conditional cause-specific hazard ratio, henceforth called the cause-specific cross ratio, a recent modification of the conditional hazard ratio designed to accommodate competing risks data. Estimation is accomplished by an intuitive, non-parametric method that localizes Kendall's tau. Time variance is accommodated through a partitioning of space into 'bins' between which the strength of association may differ. Inferential procedures are developed, small-sample performance is evaluated and the methods are applied to the investigation of familial association in dementia onset.

  1. Estimating relative risk of a log-transformed exposure measured in pools.

    PubMed

    Mitchell, Emily M; Plowden, Torie C; Schisterman, Enrique F

    2016-12-20

    Pooling biospecimens prior to performing laboratory assays is a useful tool to reduce costs, achieve minimum volume requirements and mitigate assay measurement error. When estimating the risk of a continuous, pooled exposure on a binary outcome, specialized statistical techniques are required. Current methods include a regression calibration approach, where the expectation of the individual-level exposure is calculated by adjusting the observed pooled measurement with additional covariate data. While this method employs a linear regression calibration model, we propose an alternative model that can accommodate log-linear relationships between the exposure and predictive covariates. The proposed model permits direct estimation of the relative risk associated with a log-transformation of an exposure measured in pools. Published 2016. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  2. Estimating Risk from Spillway Gate Systems on Dams Using Condition Assessment Data

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2005-10-01

    Rating Procedures for Earth and Rockfill Embankment Dams , Technical Report REMR-OM-25, Construction Engineering Research Laboratory, U.S. Army...York. Andersen, G., Chouinard, L., and Foltz, S. (1999). Condition Rating Procedures for Earth and Rockfill Embankment Dams . Technical Report REMR-OM...Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. ER D C /C ER L TR -0 5- 40 Estimating Risk from Spillway Gate Systems on Dams Using

  3. Estimating risks of importation and local transmission of Zika virus infection.

    PubMed

    Nah, Kyeongah; Mizumoto, Kenji; Miyamatsu, Yuichiro; Yasuda, Yohei; Kinoshita, Ryo; Nishiura, Hiroshi

    2016-01-01

    Background. An international spread of Zika virus (ZIKV) infection has attracted global attention. ZIKV is conveyed by a mosquito vector, Aedes species, which also acts as the vector species of dengue and chikungunya viruses. Methods. Arrival time of ZIKV importation (i.e., the time at which the first imported case was diagnosed) in each imported country was collected from publicly available data sources. Employing a survival analysis model in which the hazard is an inverse function of the effective distance as informed by the airline transportation network data, and using dengue and chikungunya virus transmission data, risks of importation and local transmission were estimated. Results. A total of 78 countries with imported case(s) have been identified, with the arrival time ranging from 1 to 44 weeks since the first ZIKV was identified in Brazil, 2015. Whereas the risk of importation was well explained by the airline transportation network data, the risk of local transmission appeared to be best captured by additionally accounting for the presence of dengue and chikungunya viruses. Discussion. The risk of importation may be high given continued global travel of mildly infected travelers but, considering that the public health concerns over ZIKV infection stems from microcephaly, it is more important to focus on the risk of local and widespread transmission that could involve pregnant women. The predicted risk of local transmission was frequently seen in tropical and subtropical countries with dengue or chikungunya epidemic experience.

  4. Estimating risks of importation and local transmission of Zika virus infection

    PubMed Central

    Nah, Kyeongah; Mizumoto, Kenji; Miyamatsu, Yuichiro; Yasuda, Yohei; Kinoshita, Ryo

    2016-01-01

    Background. An international spread of Zika virus (ZIKV) infection has attracted global attention. ZIKV is conveyed by a mosquito vector, Aedes species, which also acts as the vector species of dengue and chikungunya viruses. Methods. Arrival time of ZIKV importation (i.e., the time at which the first imported case was diagnosed) in each imported country was collected from publicly available data sources. Employing a survival analysis model in which the hazard is an inverse function of the effective distance as informed by the airline transportation network data, and using dengue and chikungunya virus transmission data, risks of importation and local transmission were estimated. Results. A total of 78 countries with imported case(s) have been identified, with the arrival time ranging from 1 to 44 weeks since the first ZIKV was identified in Brazil, 2015. Whereas the risk of importation was well explained by the airline transportation network data, the risk of local transmission appeared to be best captured by additionally accounting for the presence of dengue and chikungunya viruses. Discussion. The risk of importation may be high given continued global travel of mildly infected travelers but, considering that the public health concerns over ZIKV infection stems from microcephaly, it is more important to focus on the risk of local and widespread transmission that could involve pregnant women. The predicted risk of local transmission was frequently seen in tropical and subtropical countries with dengue or chikungunya epidemic experience. PMID:27069825

  5. Constrained Least Absolute Deviation Neural Networks

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Zhishun; Peterson, Bradley S.

    2008-01-01

    It is well known that least absolute deviation (LAD) criterion or L1-norm used for estimation of parameters is characterized by robustness, i.e., the estimated parameters are totally resistant (insensitive) to large changes in the sampled data. This is an extremely useful feature, especially, when the sampled data are known to be contaminated by occasionally occurring outliers or by spiky noise. In our previous works, we have proposed the least absolute deviation neural network (LADNN) to solve unconstrained LAD problems. The theoretical proofs and numerical simulations have shown that the LADNN is Lyapunov-stable and it can globally converge to the exact solution to a given unconstrained LAD problem. We have also demonstrated its excellent application value in time-delay estimation. More generally, a practical LAD application problem may contain some linear constraints, such as a set of equalities and/or inequalities, which is called constrained LAD problem, whereas the unconstrained LAD can be considered as a special form of the constrained LAD. In this paper, we present a new neural network called constrained least absolute deviation neural network (CLADNN) to solve general constrained LAD problems. Theoretical proofs and numerical simulations demonstrate that the proposed CLADNN is Lyapunov stable and globally converges to the exact solution to a given constrained LAD problem, independent of initial values. The numerical simulations have also illustrated that the proposed CLADNN can be used to robustly estimate parameters for nonlinear curve fitting, which is extensively used in signal and image processing. PMID:18269958

  6. Cancer risk estimates from radiation therapy for heterotopic ossification prophylaxis after total hip arthroplasty

    SciTech Connect

    Mazonakis, Michalis; Berris, Theoharris; Damilakis, John; Lyraraki, Efrossyni

    2013-10-15

    Purpose: Heterotopic ossification (HO) is a frequent complication following total hip arthroplasty. This study was conducted to calculate the radiation dose to organs-at-risk and estimate the probability of cancer induction from radiotherapy for HO prophylaxis.Methods: Hip irradiation for HO with a 6 MV photon beam was simulated with the aid of a Monte Carlo model. A realistic humanoid phantom representing an average adult patient was implemented in Monte Carlo environment for dosimetric calculations. The average out-of-field radiation dose to stomach, liver, lung, prostate, bladder, thyroid, breast, uterus, and ovary was calculated. The organ-equivalent-dose to colon, that was partly included within the treatment field, was also determined. Organ dose calculations were carried out using three different field sizes. The dependence of organ doses upon the block insertion into primary beam for shielding colon and prosthesis was investigated. The lifetime attributable risk for cancer development was estimated using organ, age, and gender-specific risk coefficients.Results: For a typical target dose of 7 Gy, organ doses varied from 1.0 to 741.1 mGy by the field dimensions and organ location relative to the field edge. Blocked field irradiations resulted in a dose range of 1.4–146.3 mGy. The most probable detriment from open field treatment of male patients was colon cancer with a high risk of 564.3 × 10{sup −5} to 837.4 × 10{sup −5} depending upon the organ dose magnitude and the patient's age. The corresponding colon cancer risk for female patients was (372.2–541.0) × 10{sup −5}. The probability of bladder cancer development was more than 113.7 × 10{sup −5} and 110.3 × 10{sup −5} for males and females, respectively. The cancer risk range to other individual organs was reduced to (0.003–68.5) × 10{sup −5}.Conclusions: The risk for cancer induction from radiation therapy for HO prophylaxis after total hip arthroplasty varies considerably by the

  7. Relative risk estimation for malaria disease mapping based on stochastic SIR-SI model in Malaysia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Samat, Nor Azah; Ma'arof, Syafiqah Husna Mohd Imam

    2016-10-01

    Disease mapping is a study on the geographical distribution of a disease to represent the epidemiology data spatially. The production of maps is important to identify areas that deserve closer scrutiny or more attention. In this study, a mosquito-borne disease called Malaria is the focus of our application. Malaria disease is caused by parasites of the genus Plasmodium and is transmitted to people through the bites of infected female Anopheles mosquitoes. Precautionary steps need to be considered in order to avoid the malaria virus from spreading around the world, especially in the tropical and subtropical countries, which would subsequently increase the number of Malaria cases. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to discuss a stochastic model employed to estimate the relative risk of malaria disease in Malaysia. The outcomes of the analysis include a Malaria risk map for all 16 states in Malaysia, revealing the high and low risk areas of Malaria occurrences.

  8. The economic value of reducing environmental health risks: Contingent valuation estimates of the value of information

    SciTech Connect

    Krieger, D.J.; Hoehn, J.P.

    1999-05-01

    Obtaining economically consistent values for changes in low probability health risks continues to be a challenge for contingent valuation (CV) as well as for other valuation methods. One of the cited condition for economic consistency is that estimated values be sensitive to the scope (differences in quantity or quality) of a good described in a CV application. The alleged limitations of CV pose a particular problem for environmental managers who must often make decisions that affect human health risks. This paper demonstrates that a well-designed CV application can elicit scope sensitive values even for programs that provide conceptually complex goods such as risk reduction. Specifically, it finds that the amount sport anglers are willing to pay for information about chemical residues in fish varies systematically with informativeness--a relationship suggested by the theory of information value.

  9. Estimation of sport fish harvest for risk and hazard assessment of environmental contaminants

    SciTech Connect

    Poston, T.M.; Strenge, D.L.

    1989-01-01

    Consumption of contaminated fish flesh can be a significant route of human exposure to hazardous chemicals. Estimation of exposure resulting from the consumption of fish requires knowledge of fish consumption and contaminant levels in the edible portion of fish. Realistic figures of sport fish harvest are needed to estimate consumption. Estimates of freshwater sport fish harvest were developed from a review of 72 articles and reports. Descriptive statistics based on fishing pressure were derived from harvest data for four distinct groups of freshwater sport fish in three water types: streams, lakes, and reservoirs. Regression equations were developed to relate harvest to surface area fished where data bases were sufficiently large. Other aspects of estimating human exposure to contaminants in fish flesh that are discussed include use of bioaccumulation factors for trace metals and organic compounds. Using the bioaccumulation factor and the concentration of contaminants in water as variables in the exposure equation may also lead to less precise estimates of tissue concentration. For instance, muscle levels of contaminants may not increase proportionately with increases in water concentrations, leading to overestimation of risk. In addition, estimates of water concentration may be variable or expressed in a manner that does not truly represent biological availability of the contaminant. These factors are discussed. 45 refs., 1 fig., 7 tabs.

  10. Estimates of Radiation Doses and Cancer Risk from Food Intake in Korea

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to estimate internal radiation doses and lifetime cancer risk from food ingestion. Radiation doses from food intake were calculated using the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and the measured radioactivity of 134Cs, 137Cs, and 131I from the Ministry of Food and Drug Safety in Korea. Total number of measured data was 8,496 (3,643 for agricultural products, 644 for livestock products, 43 for milk products, 3,193 for marine products, and 973 for processed food). Cancer risk was calculated by multiplying the estimated committed effective dose and the detriment adjusted nominal risk coefficients recommended by the International Commission on Radiation Protection. The lifetime committed effective doses from the daily diet are ranged 2.957-3.710 mSv. Excess lifetime cancer risks are 14.4-18.1, 0.4-0.5, and 1.8-2.3 per 100,000 for all solid cancers combined, thyroid cancer, and leukemia, respectively. PMID:26770031

  11. Radiation Dose and Cancer Risk Estimates in 16-Slice Computed Tomography Coronary Angiography

    PubMed Central

    Einstein, Andrew J.; Sanz, Javier; Dellegrottaglie, Santo; Milite, Margherita; Sirol, Marc; Henzlova, Milena; Rajagopalan, Sanjay

    2008-01-01

    Background Recent advances have led to a rapid increase in the number of computed tomography coronary angiography (CTCA) studies performed. While several studies have reported effective dose (E), there is no data available on cancer risk for current CTCA protocols. Methods and Results E and organ doses were estimated, using scanner-derived parameters and Monte Carlo methods, for 50 patients having 16-slice CTCA performed for clinical indications. Lifetime attributable risks (LARs) were estimated with models developed in the National Academies’ Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation VII report. E of a complete CTCA averaged 9.5 mSv, while that of a complete study, including calcium scoring when indicated, averaged 11.7 mSv. Calcium scoring increased E by 25%, while tube current modulation reduced it by 34% and was more effective at lower heart rates. Organ doses were highest to the lungs and female breast. LAR of cancer incidence from CTCA averaged approximately 1 in 1600, but varied widely between patients, being highest in younger women. For all patients, the greatest risk was from lung cancer. Conclusions CTCA is associated with non-negligible risk of malignancy. Doses can be reduced by careful attention to scanning protocol. PMID:18371595

  12. Estimates of Radiation Doses and Cancer Risk from Food Intake in Korea.

    PubMed

    Moon, Eun-Kyeong; Ha, Wi-Ho; Seo, Songwon; Jin, Young Woo; Jeong, Kyu Hwan; Yoon, Hae-Jung; Kim, Hyoung-Soo; Hwang, Myung-Sil; Choi, Hoon; Lee, Won Jin

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to estimate internal radiation doses and lifetime cancer risk from food ingestion. Radiation doses from food intake were calculated using the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and the measured radioactivity of (134)Cs, (137)Cs, and (131)I from the Ministry of Food and Drug Safety in Korea. Total number of measured data was 8,496 (3,643 for agricultural products, 644 for livestock products, 43 for milk products, 3,193 for marine products, and 973 for processed food). Cancer risk was calculated by multiplying the estimated committed effective dose and the detriment adjusted nominal risk coefficients recommended by the International Commission on Radiation Protection. The lifetime committed effective doses from the daily diet are ranged 2.957-3.710 mSv. Excess lifetime cancer risks are 14.4-18.1, 0.4-0.5, and 1.8-2.3 per 100,000 for all solid cancers combined, thyroid cancer, and leukemia, respectively.

  13. Methods to assess performance of models estimating risk of death in intensive care patients: a review.

    PubMed

    Cook, D A

    2006-04-01

    Models that estimate the probability of death of intensive care unit patients can be used to stratify patients according to the severity of their condition and to control for casemix and severity of illness. These models have been used for risk adjustment in quality monitoring, administration, management and research and as an aid to clinical decision making. Models such as the Mortality Prediction Model family, SAPS II, APACHE II, APACHE III and the organ system failure models provide estimates of the probability of in-hospital death of ICU patients. This review examines methods to assess the performance of these models. The key attributes of a model are discrimination (the accuracy of the ranking in order of probability of death) and calibration (the extent to which the model's prediction of probability of death reflects the true risk of death). These attributes should be assessed in existing models that predict the probability of patient mortality, and in any subsequent model that is developed for the purposes of estimating these probabilities. The literature contains a range of approaches for assessment which are reviewed and a survey of the methodologies used in studies of intensive care mortality models is presented. The systematic approach used by Standards for Reporting Diagnostic Accuracy provides a framework to incorporate these theoretical considerations of model assessment and recommendations are made for evaluation and presentation of the performance of models that estimate the probability of death of intensive care patients.

  14. Problems and solutions in the estimation of genetic risks from radiation and chemicals

    SciTech Connect

    Russell, W. L.

    1980-01-01

    Extensive investigations with mice on the effects of various physical and biological factors, such as dose rate, sex and cell stage, on radiation-induced mutation have provided an evaluation of the genetics hazards of radiation in man. The mutational results obtained in both sexes with progressive lowering of the radiation dose rate have permitted estimation of the mutation frequency expected under the low-level radiation conditions of most human exposure. Supplementing the studies on mutation frequency are investigations on the phenotypic effects of mutations in mice, particularly anatomical disorders of the skeleton, which allow an estimation of the degree of human handicap associated with the occurrence of parallel defects in man. Estimation of the genetic risk from chemical mutagens is much more difficult, and the research is much less advanced. Results on transmitted mutations in mice indicate a poor correlation with mutation induction in non-mammalian organisms.

  15. Estimate of the risks of disposing nonhazardous oil field wastes into salt caverns

    SciTech Connect

    Tomasko, D.; Elcock, D.; Veil, J.

    1997-12-31

    Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) has completed an evaluation of the possibility that adverse human health effects (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic) could result from exposure to contaminants released from nonhazardous oil field wastes (NOW) disposed in domal salt caverns. Potential human health risks associated with hazardous substances (arsenic, benzene, cadmium, and chromium) in NOW were assessed under four postclosure cavern release scenarios: inadvertent cavern intrusion, failure of the cavern seal, failure of the cavern through cracks or leaky interbeds, and a partial collapse of the cavern roof. To estimate potential human health risks for these scenarios, contaminant concentrations at the receptor were calculated using a one-dimensional solution to an advection/dispersion equation that included first order degradation. Assuming a single, generic salt cavern and generic oil-field wastes, the best-estimate excess cancer risks ranged from 1.7 {times} 10{sup {minus}12} to 1.1 {times} 10{sup {minus}8} and hazard indices (referring to noncancer health effects) ranged from 7 {times} 10{sup {minus}9} to 7 {times} 10{sup {minus}4}. Under worse-case conditions in which the probability of cavern failure is 1.0, excess cancer risks ranged from 4.9 {times} 10{sup {minus}9} to 1.7 {times} 10{sup {minus}5} and hazard indices ranged from 7.0 {times} 10{sup {minus}4} to 0.07. Even under worst-case conditions, the risks are within the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) target range for acceptable exposure levels. From a human health risk perspective, salt caverns can, therefore, provide an acceptable disposal method for NOW.

  16. A Multibiomarker-Based Model for Estimating the Risk of Septic Acute Kidney Injury

    PubMed Central

    Wong, Hector R.; Cvijanovich, Natalie Z.; Anas, Nick; Allen, Geoffrey L.; Thomas, Neal J.; Bigham, Michael T.; Weiss, Scott L.; Fitzgerald, Julie; Checchia, Paul A.; Meyer, Keith; Shanley, Thomas P.; Quasney, Michael; Hall, Mark; Gedeit, Rainer; Freishtat, Robert J.; Nowak, Jeffrey; Raj, Shekhar S.; Gertz, Shira; Dawson, Emily; Howard, Kelli; Harmon, Kelli; Lahni, Patrick; Frank, Erin; Hart, Kimberly W.; Lindsell, Christopher J.

    2015-01-01

    Objective The development of acute kidney injury in patients with sepsis is associated with worse outcomes. Identifying those at risk for septic acute kidney injury could help to inform clinical decision making. We derived and tested a multibiomarker-based model to estimate the risk of septic acute kidney injury in children with septic shock. Design Candidate serum protein septic acute kidney injury biomarkers were identified from previous transcriptomic studies. Model derivation involved measuring these biomarkers in serum samples from 241 subjects with septic shock obtained during the first 24 hours of admission and then using a Classification and Regression Tree approach to estimate the probability of septic acute kidney injury 3 days after the onset of septic shock, defined as at least two-fold increase from baseline serum creatinine. The model was then tested in a separate cohort of 200 subjects. Setting Multiple PICUs in the United States. Interventions None other than standard care. Measurements and Main Results The decision tree included a first-level decision node based on day 1 septic acute kidney injury status and five subsequent biomarker-based decision nodes. The area under the curve for the tree was 0.95 (CI95, 0.91–0.99), with a sensitivity of 93% and a specificity of 88%. The tree was superior to day 1 septic acute kidney injury status alone for estimating day 3 septic acute kidney injury risk. In the test cohort, the tree had an area under the curve of 0.83 (0.72–0.95), with a sensitivity of 85% and a specificity of 77% and was also superior to day 1 septic acute kidney injury status alone for estimating day 3 septic acute kidney injury risk. Conclusions We have derived and tested a model to estimate the risk of septic acute kidney injury on day 3 of septic shock using a novel panel of biomarkers. The model had very good performance in a test cohort and has test characteristics supporting clinical utility and further prospective evaluation

  17. Sensitivity Analysis of Median Lifetime on Radiation Risks Estimates for Cancer and Circulatory Disease amongst Never-Smokers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chappell, Lori J.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2011-01-01

    Radiation risks are estimated in a competing risk formalism where age or time after exposure estimates of increased risks for cancer and circulatory diseases are folded with a probability to survive to a given age. The survival function, also called the life-table, changes with calendar year, gender, smoking status and other demographic variables. An outstanding problem in risk estimation is the method of risk transfer between exposed populations and a second population where risks are to be estimated. Approaches used to transfer risks are based on: 1) Multiplicative risk transfer models -proportional to background disease rates. 2) Additive risk transfer model -risks independent of background rates. In addition, a Mixture model is often considered where the multiplicative and additive transfer assumptions are given weighted contributions. We studied the influence of the survival probability on the risk of exposure induced cancer and circulatory disease morbidity and mortality in the Multiplicative transfer model and the Mixture model. Risks for never-smokers (NS) compared to the average U.S. population are estimated to be reduced between 30% and 60% dependent on model assumptions. Lung cancer is the major contributor to the reduction for NS, with additional contributions from circulatory diseases and cancers of the stomach, liver, bladder, oral cavity, esophagus, colon, a portion of the solid cancer remainder, and leukemia. Greater improvements in risk estimates for NS s are possible, and would be dependent on improved understanding of risk transfer models, and elucidating the role of space radiation on the various stages of disease formation (e.g. initiation, promotion, and progression).

  18. Radiation-Induced Leukemia at Doses Relevant to Radiation Therapy: Modeling Mechanisms and Estimating Risks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shuryak, Igor; Sachs, Rainer K.; Hlatky, Lynn; Mark P. Little; Hahnfeldt, Philip; Brenner, David J.

    2006-01-01

    Because many cancer patients are diagnosed earlier and live longer than in the past, second cancers induced by radiation therapy have become a clinically significant issue. An earlier biologically based model that was designed to estimate risks of high-dose radiation induced solid cancers included initiation of stem cells to a premalignant state, inactivation of stem cells at high radiation doses, and proliferation of stem cells during cellular repopulation after inactivation. This earlier model predicted the risks of solid tumors induced by radiation therapy but overestimated the corresponding leukemia risks. Methods: To extend the model to radiation-induced leukemias, we analyzed in addition to cellular initiation, inactivation, and proliferation a repopulation mechanism specific to the hematopoietic system: long-range migration through the blood stream of hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) from distant locations. Parameters for the model were derived from HSC biologic data in the literature and from leukemia risks among atomic bomb survivors v^ ho were subjected to much lower radiation doses. Results: Proliferating HSCs that migrate from sites distant from the high-dose region include few preleukemic HSCs, thus decreasing the high-dose leukemia risk. The extended model for leukemia provides risk estimates that are consistent with epidemiologic data for leukemia risk associated with radiation therapy over a wide dose range. For example, when applied to an earlier case-control study of 110000 women undergoing radiotherapy for uterine cancer, the model predicted an excess relative risk (ERR) of 1.9 for leukemia among women who received a large inhomogeneous fractionated external beam dose to the bone marrow (mean = 14.9 Gy), consistent with the measured ERR (2.0, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.2 to 6.4; from 3.6 cases expected and 11 cases observed). As a corresponding example for brachytherapy, the predicted ERR of 0.80 among women who received an inhomogeneous low

  19. Biokinetic and dosimetric modelling in the estimation of radiation risks from internal emitters.

    PubMed

    Harrison, John

    2009-06-01

    The International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) has developed biokinetic and dosimetric models that enable the calculation of organ and tissue doses for a wide range of radionuclides. These are used to calculate equivalent and effective dose coefficients (dose in Sv Bq(-1) intake), considering occupational and environmental exposures. Dose coefficients have also been given for a range of radiopharmaceuticals used in diagnostic medicine. Using equivalent and effective dose, exposures from external sources and from different radionuclides can be summed for comparison with dose limits, constraints and reference levels that relate to risks from whole-body radiation exposure. Risk estimates are derived largely from follow-up studies of the survivors of the atomic bombings at Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. New dose coefficients will be required following the publication in 2007 of new ICRP recommendations. ICRP biokinetic and dosimetric models are subject to continuing review and improvement, although it is arguable that the degree of sophistication of some of the most recent models is greater than required for the calculation of effective dose to a reference person for the purposes of regulatory control. However, the models are also used in the calculation of best estimates of doses and risks to individuals, in epidemiological studies and to determine probability of cancer causation. Models are then adjusted to best fit the characteristics of the individuals and population under consideration. For example, doses resulting from massive discharges of strontium-90 and other radionuclides to the Techa River from the Russian Mayak plutonium plant in the early years of its operation are being estimated using models adapted to take account of measurements on local residents and other population-specific data. Best estimates of doses to haemopoietic bone marrow, in utero and postnatally, are being used in epidemiological studies of radiation-induced leukaemia

  20. Improved Strategies and Optimization of Calibration Models for Real-time PCR Absolute Quantification

    EPA Science Inventory

    Real-time PCR absolute quantification applications rely on the use of standard curves to make estimates of DNA target concentrations in unknown samples. Traditional absolute quantification approaches dictate that a standard curve must accompany each experimental run. However, t...

  1. Comparison of the Male Osteoporosis Risk Estimation Score (MORES) With FRAX in Identifying Men at Risk for Osteoporosis

    PubMed Central

    Cass, Alvah R.; Shepherd, Angela J.; Asirot, Rechelle; Mahajan, Manju; Nizami, Maimoona

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE We wanted to compare the male osteoporosis risk estimation score (MORES) with the fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX) in screening men for osteoporosis. METHODS This study reports analysis of data from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III), a nationally representative sample of the US population, comparing the operating characteristics of FRAX and MORES to identify men at risk for osteoporosis using a subset of 1,498 men, aged 50 years and older, with a valid dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scan. DXA-derived bone mineral density using a T score of −2.5 or lower at either the femoral neck or total hip defined the diagnosis of osteoporosis. Outcomes included the operating characteristics, area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve, and agreement of the FRAX and MORES. RESULTS Sixty-seven (4.5%) of the 1,498 men had osteoporosis of the hip. The sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve (AUC) for the MORES were 0.96 (95% CI, 0.87–0.99), 0.61 (95% CI, 0.58–0.63), and 0.87 (95% CI, 0.84–0.91), respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, and AUC for the FRAX were 0.39 (95% CI, 0.27–0.51), 0.89 (95% CI, 0.88–0.91), and 0.79 (95% CI, 0.75–0.84) respectively. Agreement was poor. CONCLUSIONS Compared with the MORES, the FRAX underperformed as a screening strategy for osteoporosis using the threshold score suggested by the US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF). An integrated approach that uses the MORES to determine which men should have a DXA scan and the FRAX to guide treatment decisions, based on the risk of a future fracture, identified 82% of men who were candidates for treatments based on National Osteoporosis Foundation guidelines. PMID:27401426

  2. Estimating Loss-of-Coolant Accident Frequencies for the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk Models

    SciTech Connect

    S. A. Eide; D. M. Rasmuson; C. L. Atwood

    2008-09-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission maintains a set of risk models covering the U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. These standardized plant analysis risk (SPAR) models include several loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) initiating events such as small (SLOCA), medium (MLOCA), and large (LLOCA). All of these events involve a loss of coolant inventory from the reactor coolant system. In order to maintain a level of consistency across these models, initiating event frequencies generally are based on plant-type average performance, where the plant types are boiling water reactors and pressurized water reactors. For certain risk analyses, these plant-type initiating event frequencies may be replaced by plant-specific estimates. Frequencies for SPAR LOCA initiating events previously were based on results presented in NUREG/CR-5750, but the newest models use results documented in NUREG/CR-6928. The estimates in NUREG/CR-6928 are based on historical data from the initiating events database for pressurized water reactor SLOCA or an interpretation of results presented in the draft version of NUREG-1829. The information in NUREG-1829 can be used several ways, resulting in different estimates for the various LOCA frequencies. Various ways NUREG-1829 information can be used to estimate LOCA frequencies were investigated and this paper presents two methods for the SPAR model standard inputs, which differ from the method used in NUREG/CR-6928. In addition, results obtained from NUREG-1829 are compared with actual operating experience as contained in the initiating events database.

  3. Cancer risk estimation of genotoxic chemicals based on target dose and a multiplicative model

    SciTech Connect

    Granath, F.N. . Dept. of Mathematical Statistics Karolinska Inst., Stockholm . Dept. of Medical Epidemiology); Vaca, C.E. . Dept. of Radiobiology Casco Products AB, Stockholm ); Ehrenberg, L.G.; Toernqvist, M.A. )

    1999-04-01

    A mechanistic model and associated procedures are proposed for cancer risk assessment of genotoxic chemicals. As previously shown for ionizing radiation, a linear multiplicative model was found to be compatible with published experimental data for ethylene oxide, acrylamide, and butadiene. Concurrent analysis led to rejection of an additive model. A reanalysis of data for radiogenic cancer in mouse, dog and man shows that the relative risk coefficient is approximately the same for tumors induced in the three species. Doses in vivo, defined as the time-integrated concentrations of ultimate mutagens, expressed in millimol x kg[sup [minus]1] x h (mMh) are, like radiation doses given in Gy or rad, proportional to frequencies of potentially mutagenic events. The radiation dose equivalents of chemical doses are, calculated by multiplying chemical doses (in mMh) with the relative genotoxic potencies determined in vitro. In this way the relative cancer incidence increments in rats and mice exposed to ethylene oxide were shown to be about 0.4% per rad-equivalent, in agreement with the data for radiogenic cancer. The analyses suggest that values of the relative risk coefficients for genotoxic chemicals are independent of species and that relative cancer risks determined in animal tests apply also to humans. If reliable animal test data are not available, cancer risks may be estimated by the relative potency. In both cases exposure dose/target dose relationships, the latter via macromolecule adducts, should be determined.

  4. Impact of ground motion characterization on conservatism and variability in seismic risk estimates

    SciTech Connect

    Sewell, R.T.; Toro, G.R.; McGuire, R.K.

    1996-07-01

    This study evaluates the impact, on estimates of seismic risk and its uncertainty, of alternative methods in treatment and characterization of earthquake ground motions. The objective of this study is to delineate specific procedures and characterizations that may lead to less biased and more precise seismic risk results. This report focuses on sources of conservatism and variability in risk that may be introduced through the analytical processes and ground-motion descriptions which are commonly implemented at the interface of seismic hazard and fragility assessments. In particular, implication of the common practice of using a single, composite spectral shape to characterize motions of different magnitudes is investigated. Also, the impact of parameterization of ground motion on fragility and hazard assessments is shown. Examination of these results demonstrates the following. (1) There exists significant conservatism in the review spectra (usually, spectra characteristic of western U.S. earthquakes) that have been used in conducting past seismic risk assessments and seismic margin assessments for eastern U.S. nuclear power plants. (2) There is a strong dependence of seismic fragility on earthquake magnitude when PGA is used as the ground-motion characterization. When, however, magnitude-dependent spectra are anchored to a common measure of elastic spectral acceleration averaged over the appropriate frequency range, seismic fragility shows no important nor consistent dependence on either magnitude or strong-motion duration. Use of inelastic spectral acceleration (at the proper frequency) as the ground spectrum anchor demonstrates a very similar result. This study concludes that a single, composite-magnitude spectrum can generally be used to characterize ground motion for fragility assessment without introducing significant bias or uncertainty in seismic risk estimates.

  5. Geostatistical analysis of disease data: estimation of cancer mortality risk from empirical frequencies using Poisson kriging

    PubMed Central

    Goovaerts, Pierre

    2005-01-01

    Background Cancer mortality maps are used by public health officials to identify areas of excess and to guide surveillance and control activities. Quality of decision-making thus relies on an accurate quantification of risks from observed rates which can be very unreliable when computed from sparsely populated geographical units or recorded for minority populations. This paper presents a geostatistical methodology that accounts for spatially varying population sizes and spatial patterns in the processing of cancer mortality data. Simulation studies are conducted to compare the performances of Poisson kriging to a few simple smoothers (i.e. population-weighted estimators and empirical Bayes smoothers) under different scenarios for the disease frequency, the population size, and the spatial pattern of risk. A public-domain executable with example datasets is provided. Results The analysis of age-adjusted mortality rates for breast and cervix cancers illustrated some key features of commonly used smoothing techniques. Because of the small weight assigned to the rate observed over the entity being smoothed (kernel weight), the population-weighted average leads to risk maps that show little variability. Other techniques assign larger and similar kernel weights but they use a different piece of auxiliary information in the prediction: global or local means for global or local empirical Bayes smoothers, and spatial combination of surrounding rates for the geostatistical estimator. Simulation studies indicated that Poisson kriging outperforms other approaches for most scenarios, with a clear benefit when the risk values are spatially correlated. Global empirical Bayes smoothers provide more accurate predictions under the least frequent scenario of spatially random risk. Conclusion The approach presented in this paper enables researchers to incorporate the pattern of spatial dependence of mortality rates into the mapping of risk values and the quantification of the

  6. Longer genotypically-estimated leukocyte telomere length is associated with increased adult glioma risk

    PubMed Central

    Walsh, Kyle M.; Codd, Veryan; Rice, Terri; Nelson, Christopher P.; Smirnov, Ivan V.; McCoy, Lucie S.; Hansen, Helen M.; Elhauge, Edward; Ojha, Juhi; Francis, Stephen S.; Madsen, Nils R.; Bracci, Paige M.; Pico, Alexander R.; Molinaro, Annette M.; Tihan, Tarik; Berger, Mitchel S.; Chang, Susan M.; Prados, Michael D.; Jenkins, Robert B.; Wiemels, Joseph L.; Samani, Nilesh J.; Wiencke, John K.; Wrensch, Margaret R.

    2015-01-01

    Telomere maintenance has emerged as an important molecular feature with impacts on adult glioma susceptibility and prognosis. Whether longer or shorter leukocyte telomere length (LTL) is associated with glioma risk remains elusive and is often confounded by the effects of age and patient treatment. We sought to determine if genotypically-estimated LTL is associated with glioma risk and if inherited single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that are associated with LTL are glioma risk factors. Using a Mendelian randomization approach, we assessed differences in genotypically-estimated relative LTL in two independent glioma case-control datasets from the UCSF Adult Glioma Study (652 patients and 3735 controls) and The Cancer Genome Atlas (478 non-overlapping patients and 2559 controls). LTL estimates were based on a weighted linear combination of subject genotype at eight SNPs, previously associated with LTL in the ENGAGE Consortium Telomere Project. Mean estimated LTL was 31bp (5.7%) longer in glioma patients than controls in discovery analyses (P = 7.82×10-8) and 27bp (5.0%) longer in glioma patients than controls in replication analyses (1.48×10-3). Glioma risk increased monotonically with each increasing septile of LTL (O.R.=1.12; P = 3.83×10-12). Four LTL-associated SNPs were significantly associated with glioma risk in pooled analyses, including those in the telomerase component genes TERC (O.R.=1.14; 95% C.I.=1.03-1.28) and TERT (O.R.=1.39; 95% C.I.=1.27-1.52), and those in the CST complex genes OBFC1 (O.R.=1.18; 95% C.I.=1.05-1.33) and CTC1 (O.R.=1.14; 95% C.I.=1.02-1.28). Future work is needed to characterize the role of the CST complex in gliomagenesis and further elucidate the complex balance between ageing, telomere length, and molecular carcinogenesis. PMID:26646793

  7. Longer genotypically-estimated leukocyte telomere length is associated with increased adult glioma risk.

    PubMed

    Walsh, Kyle M; Codd, Veryan; Rice, Terri; Nelson, Christopher P; Smirnov, Ivan V; McCoy, Lucie S; Hansen, Helen M; Elhauge, Edward; Ojha, Juhi; Francis, Stephen S; Madsen, Nils R; Bracci, Paige M; Pico, Alexander R; Molinaro, Annette M; Tihan, Tarik; Berger, Mitchel S; Chang, Susan M; Prados, Michael D; Jenkins, Robert B; Wiemels, Joseph L; Samani, Nilesh J; Wiencke, John K; Wrensch, Margaret R

    2015-12-15

    Telomere maintenance has emerged as an important molecular feature with impacts on adult glioma susceptibility and prognosis. Whether longer or shorter leukocyte telomere length (LTL) is associated with glioma risk remains elusive and is often confounded by the effects of age and patient treatment. We sought to determine if genotypically-estimated LTL is associated with glioma risk and if inherited single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that are associated with LTL are glioma risk factors. Using a Mendelian randomization approach, we assessed differences in genotypically-estimated relative LTL in two independent glioma case-control datasets from the UCSF Adult Glioma Study (652 patients and 3735 controls) and The Cancer Genome Atlas (478 non-overlapping patients and 2559 controls). LTL estimates were based on a weighted linear combination of subject genotype at eight SNPs, previously associated with LTL in the ENGAGE Consortium Telomere Project. Mean estimated LTL was 31bp (5.7%) longer in glioma patients than controls in discovery analyses (P = 7.82x10-8) and 27bp (5.0%) longer in glioma patients than controls in replication analyses (1.48x10-3). Glioma risk increased monotonically with each increasing septile of LTL (O.R.=1.12; P = 3.83x10-12). Four LTL-associated SNPs were significantly associated with glioma risk in pooled analyses, including those in the telomerase component genes TERC (O.R.=1.14; 95% C.I.=1.03-1.28) and TERT (O.R.=1.39; 95% C.I.=1.27-1.52), and those in the CST complex genes OBFC1 (O.R.=1.18; 95% C.I.=1.05-1.33) and CTC1 (O.R.=1.14; 95% C.I.=1.02-1.28). Future work is needed to characterize the role of the CST complex in gliomagenesis and further elucidate the complex balance between ageing, telomere length, and molecular carcinogenesis.

  8. Estimated drinking water fluoride exposure and risk of hip fracture: a cohort study.

    PubMed

    Näsman, P; Ekstrand, J; Granath, F; Ekbom, A; Fored, C M

    2013-11-01

    The cariostatic benefit from water fluoridation is indisputable, but the knowledge of possible adverse effects on bone and fracture risk due to fluoride exposure is ambiguous. The association between long-term (chronic) drinking water fluoride exposure and hip fracture (ICD-7-9: '820' and ICD-10: 'S72.0-S72.2') was assessed in Sweden using nationwide registers. All individuals born in Sweden between January 1, 1900 and December 31, 1919, alive and living in their municipality of birth at the time of start of follow-up, were eligible for this study. Information on the study population (n = 473,277) was linked among the Swedish National In-Patient Register (IPR), the Swedish Cause of Death Register, and the Register of Population and Population Changes. Estimated individual drinking water fluoride exposure was stratified into 4 categories: very low, < 0.3 mg/L; low, 0.3 to 0.69 mg/L; medium, 0.7 to 1.49 mg/L; and high, ≥ 1.5 mg/L. Overall, we found no association between chronic fluoride exposure and the occurrence of hip fracture. The risk estimates did not change in analyses restricted to only low-trauma osteoporotic hip fractures. Chronic fluoride exposure from drinking water does not seem to have any important effects on the risk of hip fracture, in the investigated exposure range.

  9. Relative risk estimation of Chikungunya disease in Malaysia: An analysis based on Poisson-gamma model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Samat, N. A.; Ma'arof, S. H. Mohd Imam

    2015-05-01

    Disease mapping is a method to display the geographical distribution of disease occurrence, which generally involves the usage and interpretation of a map to show the incidence of certain diseases. Relative risk (RR) estimation is one of the most important issues in disease mapping. This paper begins by providing a brief overview of Chikungunya disease. This is followed by a review of the classical model used in disease mapping, based on the standardized morbidity ratio (SMR), which we then apply to our Chikungunya data. We then fit an extension of the classical model, which we refer to as a Poisson-Gamma model, when prior distributions for the relative risks are assumed known. Both results are displayed and compared using maps and we reveal a smoother map with fewer extremes values of estimated relative risk. The extensions of this paper will consider other methods that are relevant to overcome the drawbacks of the existing methods, in order to inform and direct government strategy for monitoring and controlling Chikungunya disease.

  10. Correlations between parameters in risk models: estimation and propagation of uncertainty by Markov Chain Monte Carlo.

    PubMed

    Ades, A E; Lu, G

    2003-12-01

    Monte Carlo simulation has become the accepted method for propagating parameter uncertainty through risk models. It is widely appreciated, however, that correlations between input variables must be taken into account if models are to deliver correct assessments of uncertainty in risk. Various two-stage methods have been proposed that first estimate a correlation structure and then generate Monte Carlo simulations, which incorporate this structure while leaving marginal distributions of parameters unchanged. Here we propose a one-stage alternative, in which the correlation structure is estimated from the data directly by Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Samples from the posterior distribution of the outputs then correctly reflect the correlation between parameters, given the data and the model. Besides its computational simplicity, this approach utilizes the available evidence from a wide variety of structures, including incomplete data and correlated and uncorrelated repeat observations. The major advantage of a Bayesian approach is that, rather than assuming the correlation structure is fixed and known, it captures the joint uncertainty induced by the data in all parameters, including variances and covariances, and correctly propagates this through the decision or risk model. These features are illustrated with examples on emissions of dioxin congeners from solid waste incinerators.

  11. Prospect theory based estimation of drivers' risk attitudes in route choice behaviors.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Lizhen; Zhong, Shiquan; Ma, Shoufeng; Jia, Ning

    2014-12-01

    This paper applied prospect theory (PT) to describe drivers' route choice behavior under Variable Message Sign (VMS), which presented visual traffic information to assist them to make route choice decisions. A quite rich empirical data from questionnaire and field spot was used to estimate parameters of PT. In order to make the parameters more realistic with drivers' attitudes, they were classified into different types by significant factors influencing their behaviors. Based on the travel time distribution of alternative routes and route choice results from questionnaire, the parameterized value function of each category was figured out, which represented drivers' risk attitudes and choice characteristics. The empirical verification showed that the estimates were acceptable and effective. The result showed drivers' risk attitudes and route choice characteristics could be captured by PT under real-time information shown on VMS. For practical application, once drivers' route choice characteristics and parameters were identified, their route choice behavior under different road conditions could be predicted accurately, which was the basis of traffic guidance measures formulation and implementation for targeted traffic management. Moreover, the heterogeneous risk attitudes among drivers should be considered when releasing traffic information and regulating traffic flow.

  12. Developing a utility decision framework to evaluate predictive models in breast cancer risk estimation

    PubMed Central

    Wu, Yirong; Abbey, Craig K.; Chen, Xianqiao; Liu, Jie; Page, David C.; Alagoz, Oguzhan; Peissig, Peggy; Onitilo, Adedayo A.; Burnside, Elizabeth S.

    2015-01-01

    Abstract. Combining imaging and genetic information to predict disease presence and progression is being codified into an emerging discipline called “radiogenomics.” Optimal evaluation methodologies for radiogenomics have not been well established. We aim to develop a decision framework based on utility analysis to assess predictive models for breast cancer diagnosis. We garnered Gail risk factors, single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), and mammographic features from a retrospective case-control study. We constructed three logistic regression models built on different sets of predictive features: (1) Gail, (2) Gail + Mammo, and (3) Gail + Mammo + SNP. Then we generated receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for three models. After we assigned utility values for each category of outcomes (true negatives, false positives, false negatives, and true positives), we pursued optimal operating points on ROC curves to achieve maximum expected utility of breast cancer diagnosis. We performed McNemar’s test based on threshold levels at optimal operating points, and found that SNPs and mammographic features played a significant role in breast cancer risk estimation. Our study comprising utility analysis and McNemar’s test provides a decision framework to evaluate predictive models in breast cancer risk estimation. PMID:26835489

  13. Estimating the Size of Populations at High Risk for HIV Using Respondent-Driven Sampling Data

    PubMed Central

    Handcock, Mark S.; Gile, Krista J.; Mar, Corinne M.

    2015-01-01

    Summary The study of hard-to-reach populations presents significant challenges. Typically, a sampling frame is not available, and population members are difficult to identify or recruit from broader sampling frames. This is especially true of populations at high risk for HIV/AIDS. Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) is often used in such settings with the primary goal of estimating the prevalence of infection. In such populations, the number of people at risk for infection and the number of people infected are of fundamental importance. This article presents a case-study of the estimation of the size of the hard-to-reach population based on data collected through RDS. We study two populations of female sex workers and men-who-have-sex-with-men in El Salvador. The approach is Bayesian and we consider different forms of prior information, including using the UNAIDS population size guidelines for this region. We show that the method is able to quantify the amount of information on population size available in RDS samples. As separate validation, we compare our results to those estimated by extrapolating from a capture–recapture study of El Salvadorian cities. The results of our case-study are largely comparable to those of the capture–recapture study when they differ from the UNAIDS guidelines. Our method is widely applicable to data from RDS studies and we provide a software package to facilitate this. PMID:25585794

  14. Community-based estimates of incidence and risk factors for childhood pneumonia in Western Sydney.

    PubMed Central

    MacIntyre, C. R.; McIntyre, P. B.; Cagney, M.

    2003-01-01

    The aim was to estimate the community incidence and risk factors for all-cause pneumonia in children in Western Sydney, Australia. A cross-sectional randomized computer-assisted telephone interview was conducted in July 2000, in Western Sydney. Parents of 2020 children aged between 5 and 14 years were interviewed about their child's respiratory health since birth. No verification of reported diagnosis was available. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine risk factors for pneumonia. A lifetime diagnosis of pneumonia was reported in 137/2020 (68%) children, giving an estimated incidence in the study sample of 7.6/1000 person-years. Radiological confirmation was reported in 85% (117/137). Hospitalization was reported in 41% (56/137) and antibiotic therapy in 93% (127/137) of cases. Using logistic regression modelling, statistically significant associations with pneumonia were a reported history of either asthma, bronchitis or other lung problems and health problems affecting other systems. In most cases, the diagnosis of asthma preceded the diagnosis of pneumonia. The community incidence of all causes of pneumonia is not well enumerated, either in adults or in children. This study provides community-based incidence data. The incidence of hospitalization for pneumonia in this study is comparable to estimates from studies in comparable populations, suggesting that retrospective parental report for memorable events is likely to be valid. We found a relationship between pneumonia and childhood respiratory diseases such as asthma, which has implications for targeted vaccination strategies. PMID:14959775

  15. Yesterday's Japan: A system of flood risk estimation over Japan with remote-sensing precipitation data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kanae, S.; Seto, S.; Yoshimura, K.; Oki, T.

    2008-12-01

    A new river discharge prediction and hindcast system all over Japan in order to issue alerts of flood risks has been developed. It utilizes Japan Meteorological Agency"fs Meso-scale model outputs and remote-sensing precipitation data. A statistical approach that compromises the bias and uncertainty of models is proposed for interpreting the simulated river discharge as a flood risk. A 29-year simulation was implemented to estimate parameters of the Gumbel distribution for the probability of extreme discharge, and the estimated discharge probability index (DPI) showed good agreement with that estimated based on observations. Even more strikingly, high DPI in the simulation corresponded to actual flood damage records. This indicates that the real-time simulation of the DPI could potentially provide reasonable flood warnings. A method to overcome the lack of sufficiently long simulation data through the use of a pre-existing long-term simulation and to estimate statistical parameters is also proposed. A preliminary flood risk prediction that used operational weather forecast data for 2003 and 2004 gave results similar to those of the 29-year simulation for the Typhoon T0423 event on October 2004, demonstrating the transferability of the technique to real-time prediction. In addition, the usefulness of satellite precipitation data for the flood estimation is evaluated via hindcast. We conducted it using several precipitation satellite datasets. The GSMaP product can detect heavy precipitation events, but floods being not well simulated in many cases because of GSMAP"fs underestimation. The GSMaP product adjusted by using monthly and 1 degree rain gauge information can be used to detect flood events as well as hourly rain gauge observations. Another quantitative issue is also disscussed. When a remote-sensing based precipitation data is used as an input for hindcast, we are suffering from underestimation of precipitation amount. The effort for improvement will be shown

  16. Formula and scale for body surface area estimation in high-risk infants.

    PubMed

    Ahn, Youngmee

    2010-12-01

    Advances in medical technology and the health sciences have lead to a rapid increase in the prevalence and morbidity of high-risk infants with chronic or permanent sequels such as the birth of early preterm infants. A suitable formula is therefore needed for body surface area (BSA) estimation for high-risk infants to more accurately devise therapeutic regimes in clinical practice. A cohort study involving 5014 high-risk infants was conducted to develop a suitable formula for estimating BSA using four of the existing formulas in the literature. BSA of high-risk infants was calculated using the four BSA equations (Boyd-BSA, Dubois-BSA, Meban-BSA, Mosteller-BSA), from which a new calculation, Mean-BSA, was arithmetically derived as a reference BSA measure. Multiple-regression was performed using nonlinear least squares curve fitting corresponding to the trend line and the new equation, Neo-BSA, developed using Excel and SPSS 17.0. The Neo-BSA equation was constructed as follows: Neo-BSA = 5.520 x W(0.5526) x L(0.300). With the assumption of the least square root relation between weight and length, a BSA scale using only weight was fabricated specifically for clinical applications where weight is more available in high-risk infant populations than is length. The validity of Neo-BSA was evaluated against Meban-BSA, the best of the four equations for high-risk infants, as there is a similarity of subjects in the two studies. The other formulas revealed substantial variances in BSA compared to Neo-BSA. This study developed a new surface area equation, Neo-BSA, as the most suitable formula for BSA measurement of high-risk infants in modern-day societies, where an emerging population of newborns with shorten gestational ages are becoming more prevalent as a result of new advances in the health sciences and new development of reproductive technologies. In particular, a scale for 400-7000 g body weight babies derived from the Neo-BSA equation has the clinical advantage of

  17. Patient-specific radiation dose and cancer risk estimation in CT: Part II. Application to patients

    SciTech Connect

    Li Xiang; Samei, Ehsan; Segars, W. Paul; Sturgeon, Gregory M.; Colsher, James G.; Toncheva, Greta; Yoshizumi, Terry T.; Frush, Donald P.

    2011-01-15

    Purpose: Current methods for estimating and reporting radiation dose from CT examinations are largely patient-generic; the body size and hence dose variation from patient to patient is not reflected. Furthermore, the current protocol designs rely on dose as a surrogate for the risk of cancer incidence, neglecting the strong dependence of risk on age and gender. The purpose of this study was to develop a method for estimating patient-specific radiation dose and cancer risk from CT examinations. Methods: The study included two patients (a 5-week-old female patient and a 12-year-old male patient), who underwent 64-slice CT examinations (LightSpeed VCT, GE Healthcare) of the chest, abdomen, and pelvis at our institution in 2006. For each patient, a nonuniform rational B-spine (NURBS) based full-body computer model was created based on the patient's clinical CT data. Large organs and structures inside the image volume were individually segmented and modeled. Other organs were created by transforming an existing adult male or female full-body computer model (developed from visible human data) to match the framework defined by the segmented organs, referencing the organ volume and anthropometry data in ICRP Publication 89. A Monte Carlo program previously developed and validated for dose simulation on the LightSpeed VCT scanner was used to estimate patient-specific organ dose, from which effective dose and risks of cancer incidence were derived. Patient-specific organ dose and effective dose were compared with patient-generic CT dose quantities in current clinical use: the volume-weighted CT dose index (CTDI{sub vol}) and the effective dose derived from the dose-length product (DLP). Results: The effective dose for the CT examination of the newborn patient (5.7 mSv) was higher but comparable to that for the CT examination of the teenager patient (4.9 mSv) due to the size-based clinical CT protocols at our institution, which employ lower scan techniques for smaller

  18. Estimating the Risk of Renal Stone Events During Long-Duration Spaceflight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reyes, David; Kerstman, Eric; Locke, James

    2014-01-01

    Introduction: Given the bone loss and increased urinary calcium excretion in the microgravity environment, persons participating in long-duration spaceflight may have an increased risk for renal stone formation. Renal stones are often an incidental finding of abdominal imaging studies done for other reasons. Thus, some crewmembers may have undiscovered, asymptomatic stones prior to their mission. Methods: An extensive literature search was conducted concerning the natural history of asymptomatic renal stones. For comparison, simulations were done using the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). The IMM is an evidence-based decision support tool that provides risk analysis and has the capability to optimize medical systems for missions by minimizing the occurrence of adverse mission outcomes such as evacuation and loss of crew life within specified mass and volume constraints. Results: The literature of the natural history of asymptomatic renal stones in the general medical population shows that the probability of symptomatic event is 8% to 34% at 1 to 3 years for stones < 7 mm. Extrapolated to a 6-month mission, for stones < 5 to 7 mm, the risk for any stone event is about 4 to 6%, with a 0.7% to 4% risk for intervention, respectively. IMM simulations compare favorably with risk estimates garnered from the terrestrial literature. The IMM forecasts that symptomatic renal stones may be one of the top drivers for medical evacuation of an International Space Station (ISS) mission. Discussion: Although the likelihood of a stone event is low, the consequences could be severe due to limitations of current ISS medical capabilities. Therefore, these risks need to be quantified to aid planning, limit crew morbidity and mitigate mission impacts. This will be especially critical for missions beyond earth orbit, where evacuation may not be an option.

  19. Estimating the Risk of Renal Stone Events during Long-Duration Spaceflight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reyes, David; Kerstman, Eric; Gray, Gary; Locke, James

    2014-01-01

    Introduction: Given the bone loss and increased urinary calcium excretion in the microgravity environment, persons participating in long-duration spaceflight may have an increased risk for renal stone formation. Renal stones are often an incidental finding of abdominal imaging studies done for other reasons. Thus, some crewmembers may have undiscovered, asymptomatic stones prior to their mission. Methods: An extensive literature search was conducted concerning the natural history of asymptomatic renal stones. For comparison, simulations were done using the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). The IMM is an evidence-based decision support tool that provides risk analysis and has the capability to optimize medical systems for missions by minimizing the occurrence of adverse mission outcomes such as evacuation and loss of crew life within specified mass and volume constraints. Results: The literature of the natural history of asymptomatic renal stones in the general medical population shows that the probability of symptomatic event is 8% to 34% at 1 to 3 years for stones < 7 mm. Extrapolated to a 6-month mission, for stones < 5 to 7 mm, the risk for any stone event is about 4 to 6%, with a 0.7% to 4% risk for intervention, respectively. IMM simulations compare favorably with risk estimates garnered from the terrestrial literature. The IMM forecasts that symptomatic renal stones may be one of the top drivers for medical evacuation of an International Space Station (ISS) mission. Discussion: Although the likelihood of a stone event is low, the consequences could be severe due to limitations of current ISS medical capabilities. Therefore, these risks need to be quantified to aid planning, limit crew morbidity and mitigate mission impacts. This will be especially critical for missions beyond earth orbit, where evacuation may not be an option.

  20. Estimating drought risk across Europe from reported drought impacts, drought indices, and vulnerability factors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blauhut, Veit; Stahl, Kerstin; Stagge, James Howard; Tallaksen, Lena M.; De Stefano, Lucia; Vogt, Jürgen

    2016-07-01

    Drought is one of the most costly natural hazards in Europe. Due to its complexity, drought risk, meant as the combination of the natural hazard and societal vulnerability, is difficult to define and challenging to detect and predict, as the impacts of drought are very diverse, covering the breadth of socioeconomic and environmental systems. Pan-European maps of drought risk could inform the elaboration of guidelines and policies to address its documented severity and impact across borders. This work tests the capability of commonly applied drought indices and vulnerability factors to predict annual drought impact occurrence for different sectors and macro regions in Europe and combines information on past drought impacts, drought indices, and vulnerability factors into estimates of drought risk at the pan-European scale. This hybrid approach bridges the gap between traditional vulnerability assessment and probabilistic impact prediction in a statistical modelling framework. Multivariable logistic regression was applied to predict the likelihood of impact occurrence on an annual basis for particular impact categories and European macro regions. The results indicate sector- and macro-region-specific sensitivities of drought indices, with the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for a 12-month accumulation period as the overall best hazard predictor. Vulnerability factors have only limited ability to predict drought impacts as single predictors, with information about land use and water resources being the best vulnerability-based predictors. The application of the hybrid approach revealed strong regional and sector-specific differences in drought risk across Europe. The majority of the best predictor combinations rely on a combination of SPEI for shorter and longer accumulation periods, and a combination of information on land use and water resources. The added value of integrating regional vulnerability information with drought risk prediction

  1. Estimating drought risk across Europe from reported drought impacts, hazard indicators and vulnerability factors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blauhut, V.; Stahl, K.; Stagge, J. H.; Tallaksen, L. M.; De Stefano, L.; Vogt, J.

    2015-12-01

    Drought is one of the most costly natural hazards in Europe. Due to its complexity, drought risk, the combination of the natural hazard and societal vulnerability, is difficult to define and challenging to detect and predict, as the impacts of drought are very diverse, covering the breadth of socioeconomic and environmental systems. Pan-European maps of drought risk could inform the elaboration of guidelines and policies to address its documented severity and impact across borders. This work (1) tests the capability of commonly applied hazard indicators and vulnerability factors to predict annual drought impact occurrence for different sectors and macro regions in Europe and (2) combines information on past drought impacts, drought hazard indicators, and vulnerability factors into estimates of drought risk at the pan-European scale. This "hybrid approach" bridges the gap between traditional vulnerability assessment and probabilistic impact forecast in a statistical modelling framework. Multivariable logistic regression was applied to predict the likelihood of impact occurrence on an annual basis for particular impact categories and European macro regions. The results indicate sector- and macro region specific sensitivities of hazard indicators, with the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index for a twelve month aggregation period (SPEI-12) as the overall best hazard predictor. Vulnerability factors have only limited ability to predict drought impacts as single predictor, with information about landuse and water resources as best vulnerability-based predictors. (3) The application of the "hybrid approach" revealed strong regional (NUTS combo level) and sector specific differences in drought risk across Europe. The majority of best predictor combinations rely on a combination of SPEI for shorter and longer aggregation periods, and a combination of information on landuse and water resources. The added value of integrating regional vulnerability information

  2. Estimated Phytanic Acid Intake and Prostate Cancer Risk: a Prospective Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Wright, Margaret E.; Bowen, Phyllis; Virtamo, Jarmo; Albanes, Demetrius; Gann, Peter H.

    2013-01-01

    Phytanic acid is a saturated fatty acid found predominantly in red meat and dairy products and may contribute to increases in prostate cancer risk that are observed with higher intakes of these foods. We constructed a novel summary measure of phytanic acid intake and prospectively examined its association with prostate cancer risk in the Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention Study – a cohort of Finnish male smokers ages 50–69 years. Diet was assessed at baseline in 27,111 participants using a validated 276-item dietary questionnaire. Since phytanic acid is not currently included in food composition tables, we used the published phytanic acid content of 151 major food items to estimate total daily intake. During up to 20 years of follow-up, a total of 1,929 incident prostate cancer cases (including 438 advanced cases) were identified. Higher phytanic acid intake, though unrelated to the risk of localized disease [relative risks and 95% confidence intervals for increasing quartiles of intake = 1.00 (ref), 0.83 (0.68–1.01), 0.76 (0.62–0.94), and 0.91 (0.74–1.13); p trend = 0.23], was associated with increased risks of advanced prostate cancer [RR and 95% CI = 1.00 (ref), 1.43 (1.09–1.89), 1.31 (0.99–1.75), and 1.38 (1.02–1.89); p trend = 0.06]. This association appeared to be driven predominantly by phytanic acid obtained from dairy products (particularly butter). Our study indicates that phytanic acid may contribute to previously observed associations between high-fat animal foods (particularly dairy products) and prostate cancer risk, although some caution is warranted as it may be acting as a surrogate marker of dairy fat. PMID:22120496

  3. Estimates of coextinction risk: how anuran parasites respond to the extinction of their hosts.

    PubMed

    Campião, Karla Magalhães; de Aquino Ribas, Augusto Cesar; Cornell, Stephen J; Begon, Michael; Tavares, Luiz Eduardo Roland

    2015-12-01

    Amphibians are known as the most threatened vertebrate group. One of the outcomes of a species' extinction is the coextinction of its dependents. Here, we estimate the extinction risk of helminth parasites of South America anurans. Parasite coextinction probabilities were modeled, assuming parasite specificity and host vulnerability to extinction as determinants. Parasite species associated with few hosts were the most prone to extinction, and extinction risk varied amongst helminth species of different taxonomic groups and life cycle complexity. Considering host vulnerability in the model decreased the extinction probability of most parasites species. However, parasite specificity and host vulnerability combined to increase the extinction probabilities of 44% of the helminth species reported in a single anuran species.

  4. Fall risk probability estimation based on supervised feature learning using public fall datasets.

    PubMed

    Koshmak, Gregory A; Linden, Maria; Loutfi, Amy

    2016-08-01

    Risk of falling is considered among major threats for elderly population and therefore started to play an important role in modern healthcare. With recent development of sensor technology, the number of studies dedicated to reliable fall detection system has increased drastically. However, there is still a lack of universal approach regarding the evaluation of developed algorithms. In the following study we make an attempt to find publicly available fall datasets and analyze similarities among them using supervised learning. After preforming similarity assessment based on multidimensional scaling we indicate the most representative feature vector corresponding to each specific dataset. This vector obtained from a real-life data is subsequently deployed to estimate fall risk probabilities for a statistical fall detection model. Finally, we conclude with some observations regarding the similarity assessment results and provide suggestions towards an efficient approach for evaluation of fall detection studies.

  5. Estimating wildfire risk on a Mojave Desert landscape using remote sensing and field sampling

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Van Linn, Peter F.; Nussear, Kenneth E.; Esque, Todd C.; DeFalco, Lesley A.; Inman, Richard D.; Abella, Scott R.

    2013-01-01

    Predicting wildfires that affect broad landscapes is important for allocating suppression resources and guiding land management. Wildfire prediction in the south-western United States is of specific concern because of the increasing prevalence and severe effects of fire on desert shrublands and the current lack of accurate fire prediction tools. We developed a fire risk model to predict fire occurrence in a north-eastern Mojave Desert landscape. First we developed a spatial model using remote sensing data to predict fuel loads based on field estimates of fuels. We then modelled fire risk (interactions of fuel characteristics and environmental conditions conducive to wildfire) using satellite imagery, our model of fuel loads, and spatial data on ignition potential (lightning strikes and distance to roads), topography (elevation and aspect) and climate (maximum and minimum temperatures). The risk model was developed during a fire year at our study landscape and validated at a nearby landscape; model performance was accurate and similar at both sites. This study demonstrates that remote sensing techniques used in combination with field surveys can accurately predict wildfire risk in the Mojave Desert and may be applicable to other arid and semiarid lands where wildfires are prevalent.

  6. Risk information in support of cost estimates for the Baseline Environmental Management Report (BEMR). Section 1

    SciTech Connect

    Gelston, G.M.; Jarvis, M.F.; Warren, B.R.; Von Berg, R.

    1995-06-01

    The Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL)(1) effort on the overall Baseline Environmental Management Report (BEMR) project consists of four installation-specific work components performed in succession. These components include (1) development of source terms, 92) collection of data and preparation of environmental settings reports, (3) calculation of unit risk factors, and (4) utilization of the unit risk factors in Automated Remedial Action Methodology (ARAM) for computation of target concentrations and cost estimates. This report documents work completed for the Nevada Test Site, Nevada, for components 2 and 3. The product of this phase of the BEMR project is the development of unit factors (i.e., unit transport factors, unit exposure factors, and unit risk factors). Thousands of these unit factors are gene rated and fill approximately one megabyte of computer information per installation. The final unit risk factors (URF) are transmitted electronically to BEMR-Cost task personnel as input to a computer program (ARAM). Abstracted files and exhibits of the URF information are included in this report. These visual formats are intended to provide a sample of the final task deliverable (the URF files) which can be easily read without a computer.

  7. Risk estimation of infectious diseases determines the effectiveness of the control strategy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Haifeng; Zhang, Jie; Li, Ping; Small, Michael; Wang, Binghong

    2011-05-01

    Usually, whether to take vaccination or not is a voluntary decision, which is determined by many factors, from societal factors (such as religious belief and human rights) to individual preferences (including psychology and altruism). Facing the outbreaks of infectious diseases, different people often have different estimations on the risk of infectious diseases. So, some persons are willing to vaccinate, but other persons are willing to take risks. In this paper, we establish two different risk assessment systems using the technique of dynamic programming, and then compare the effects of the two different systems on the prevention of diseases on complex networks. One is that the perceived probability of being infected for each individual is the same (uniform case). The other is that the perceived probability of being infected is positively correlated to individual degrees (preferential case). We show that these two risk assessment systems can yield completely different results, such as, the effectiveness of controlling diseases, the time evolution of the number of infections, and so on.

  8. Waste management programmatic environmental impact statement methodology for estimating human health risks

    SciTech Connect

    Bergenback, B.; Blaylock, B.P.; Legg, J.L.

    1995-05-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) has produced large quantities of radioactive and hazardous waste during years of nuclear weapons production. As a result, a large number of sites across the DOE Complex have become chemically and/or radiologically contaminated. In 1990, the Secretary of Energy charged the DOE Office of Environmental Restoration and Waste management (EM) with the task of preparing a Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS). The PEIS should identify and assess the potential environmental impacts of implementing several integrated Environmental Restoration (ER) and Waste Management (WM) alternatives. The determination and integration of appropriate remediation activities and sound waste management practices is vital for ensuring the diminution of adverse human health impacts during site cleanup and waste management programs. This report documents the PEIS risk assessment methodology used to evaluate human health risks posed by WM activities. The methodology presents a programmatic cradle to grave risk assessment for EM program activities. A unit dose approach is used to estimate risks posed by WM activities and is the subject of this document.

  9. Social and economic factors of the natural risk increasing: estimation of the Russian regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petrova, E.

    2004-04-01

    This study is an attempt to assess quantitatively social and economic factors that determine vulnerability of Russian regions to natural risk, to trace the space differences of the considered factors, and to group the regions by their similarity. In order to indicate the regional differences in social and economic development, equipment condition, dangerous substances accumulation, and social trouble four the most suitable parameters were estimated, including the per capita production of Gross Regional Product (GRP), capital consumption, volume of total toxic waste, and crime rate. Increase of the first parameter causes vulnerability reducing, the increase of the last three causes its increasing. Using multidimensional cluster analysis five types of regions were found for Russia according to similarity of the considered parameters. These types are characterized with higher value of a single (rarely two) chosen parameter, which seems to be sufficient enough to affect natural risks increasing in these regions in near future. Only few regions belonging to the fifth type proved to have rather high value of GRP and relatively low values of the other parameters. The negative correlation was found between a number of natural disasters (ND) and the per capita GRP in case when some parameters reached anomalously high value. The distinctions between regions by prevailing different parameters, which result in natural risk increasing, help risk management to find directions where to focus on.

  10. Contribution of molecular analyses to the estimation of the risk of congenital myotonic dystrophy.

    PubMed

    Cobo, A M; Poza, J J; Martorell, L; López de Munain, A; Emparanza, J I; Baiget, M

    1995-02-01

    A molecular analysis of the maternal and child CTG repeat size and intergenerational amplification was performed in order to estimate the risk of having a child with congenital myotonic dystrophy (CMD). In a study of 124 affected mother-child pairs (42 mother-CMD and 82 mother-non-CMD) the mean maternal CTG allele in CMD cases was three times higher (700 repeats) than in non-CMD cases (236 repeats). When the maternal allele was in the 50-300 repeats range, 90% of children were non-CMD. In contrast, when the maternal allele was greater than 300 repeats, 59% inherited the congenital form. Furthermore, the risk of having a CMD child is also related to the intergenerational amplification, which was significantly greater in the mother-CMD pairs than in the mother-non-CMD pairs. Although the risk of giving birth to a CMD child always exists for affected mothers, our data show that such a risk is considerably higher if the maternal allele is greater than 300 repeats.

  11. A global building inventory for earthquake loss estimation and risk management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jaiswal, K.; Wald, D.; Porter, K.

    2010-01-01

    We develop a global database of building inventories using taxonomy of global building types for use in near-real-time post-earthquake loss estimation and pre-earthquake risk analysis, for the U.S. Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program. The database is available for public use, subject to peer review, scrutiny, and open enhancement. On a country-by-country level, it contains estimates of the distribution of building types categorized by material, lateral force resisting system, and occupancy type (residential or nonresidential, urban or rural). The database draws on and harmonizes numerous sources: (1) UN statistics, (2) UN Habitat's demographic and health survey (DHS) database, (3) national housing censuses, (4) the World Housing Encyclopedia and (5) other literature. ?? 2010, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  12. Spatially Interpolated Disease Prevalence Estimation Using Collateral Indicators of Morbidity and Ecological Risk

    PubMed Central

    Congdon, Peter

    2013-01-01

    This paper considers estimation of disease prevalence for small areas (neighbourhoods) when the available observations on prevalence are for an alternative partition of a region, such as service areas. Interpolation to neighbourhoods uses a kernel method extended to take account of two types of collateral information. The first is morbidity and service use data, such as hospital admissions, observed for neighbourhoods. Variations in morbidity and service use are expected to reflect prevalence. The second type of collateral information is ecological risk factors (e.g., pollution indices) that are expected to explain variability in prevalence in service areas, but are typically observed only for neighbourhoods. An application involves estimating neighbourhood asthma prevalence in a London health region involving 562 neighbourhoods and 189 service (primary care) areas. PMID:24129116

  13. Efficient Estimation of Semiparametric Transformation Models for the Cumulative Incidence of Competing Risks.

    PubMed

    Mao, Lu; Lin, D Y

    2017-03-01

    The cumulative incidence is the probability of failure from the cause of interest over a certain time period in the presence of other risks. A semiparametric regression model proposed by Fine and Gray (1999) has become the method of choice for formulating the effects of covariates on the cumulative incidence. Its estimation, however, requires modeling of the censoring distribution and is not statistically efficient. In this paper, we present a broad class of semiparametric transformation models which extends the Fine and Gray model, and we allow for unknown causes of failure. We derive the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimators (NPMLEs) and develop simple and fast numerical algorithms using the profile likelihood. We establish the consistency, asymptotic normality, and semiparametric efficiency of the NPMLEs. In addition, we construct graphical and numerical procedures to evaluate and select models. Finally, we demonstrate the advantages of the proposed methods over the existing ones through extensive simulation studies and an application to a major study on bone marrow transplantation.

  14. The influence of climate change on flood risks in France - first estimates and uncertainty analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dumas, P.; Hallegatte, S.; Quintana-Seguì, P.; Martin, E.

    2013-03-01

    This paper proposes a methodology to project the possible evolution of river flood damages due to climate change, and applies it to mainland France. Its main contributions are (i) to demonstrate a methodology to investigate the full causal chain from global climate change to local economic flood losses; (ii) to show that future flood losses may change in a very significant manner over France; (iii) to show that a very large uncertainty arises from the climate downscaling technique, since two techniques with comparable skills at reproducing reference river flows give very different estimates of future flows, and thus of future local losses. The main conclusion is thus that estimating future flood losses is still out of reach, especially at local scale, but that future national-scale losses may change significantly over this century, requiring policy changes in terms of risk management and land-use planning.

  15. Metabolic syndrome risk factors and estimated glomerular filtration rate among children and adolescents.

    PubMed

    Koulouridis, Efstathios; Georgalidis, Kostantinos; Kostimpa, Ioulia; Koulouridis, Ioannis; Krokida, Angeliki; Houliara, Despina

    2010-03-01

    The aim of this study was to seek the possible relationship between estimated glomerular filtration rate (e-GFR) and anthropometric indexes, lipids, insulin sensitivity, and metabolic syndrome risk factors among healthy children and adolescents. Sufficient evidence suggest that obesity is related with a novel form of glomerulopathy named obesity-related glomerulopathy (ORG) among adults, children, and adolescents. Glomerular filtration rate was estimated from serum creatinine in 166 healthy children and adolescents [79 males, 87 females; age 10.6 +/- 3.3 (3-18) years]. Anthropometric indexes and systolic and diastolic blood pressure were measured. Fasting insulin, glucose, creatinine, uric acid, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein (HDL)-cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein (LDL)-cholesterol, and triglycerides were estimated. Insulin sensitivity was estimated from known formulas. The presence of certain metabolic syndrome risk factors was checked among the studied population. Boys showed higher e-GFR rates than girls (f = 8.49, p = 0.004). We found a strong positive correlation between e-GFR and body weight (r = 0.415), body mass index (BMI) (r = 0.28), waist circumference (r = 0.419), hip circumference (r = 0.364), birth weight (r = 0.164), systolic blood pressure (SBP) (r = 0.305), and mean arterial pressure (MAP) (r = 0.207). A negative correlation was found between e-GFR and fasting glucose (r = -0.19), total cholesterol (r = -0.27) and LDL-cholesterol (r = -0.26). Clustering of metabolic syndrome risk factors among certain individuals was correlated with higher e-GFR rates (f = 3.606, p = 0.007). The results of this study suggest that gender, anthropometric indexes, and SBP are strong positive determinants of e-GFR among children and adolescents. Waist circumference is the most powerful determinant of e-GFR. Fasting glucose and lipid abnormalities are negative determinants of e-GFR among the studied population. Clustering of metabolic syndrome risk

  16. Impact of alternative metrics on estimates of extent of occurrence for extinction risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Joppa, Lucas N; Butchart, Stuart H M; Hoffmann, Michael; Bachman, Steve P; Akçakaya, H Resit; Moat, Justin F; Böhm, Monika; Holland, Robert A; Newton, Adrian; Polidoro, Beth; Hughes, Adrian

    2016-04-01

    In International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessments, extent of occurrence (EOO) is a key measure of extinction risk. However, the way assessors estimate EOO from maps of species' distributions is inconsistent among assessments of different species and among major taxonomic groups. Assessors often estimate EOO from the area of mapped distribution, but these maps often exclude areas that are not habitat in idiosyncratic ways and are not created at the same spatial resolutions. We assessed the impact on extinction risk categories of applying different methods (minimum convex polygon, alpha hull) for estimating EOO for 21,763 species of mammals, birds, and amphibians. Overall, the percentage of threatened species requiring down listing to a lower category of threat (taking into account other Red List criteria under which they qualified) spanned 11-13% for all species combined (14-15% for mammals, 7-8% for birds, and 12-15% for amphibians). These down listings resulted from larger estimates of EOO and depended on the EOO calculation method. Using birds as an example, we found that 14% of threatened and near threatened species could require down listing based on the minimum convex polygon (MCP) approach, an approach that is now recommended by IUCN. Other metrics (such as alpha hull) had marginally smaller impacts. Our results suggest that uniformly applying the MCP approach may lead to a one-time down listing of hundreds of species but ultimately ensure consistency across assessments and realign the calculation of EOO with the theoretical basis on which the metric was founded.

  17. An approximate estimate of the earthquake risk in the United Arab Emirates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Al-Homoud, A.; Wyss, M.

    2003-04-01

    The UAE is not as safe from earthquake disasters as often assumed. The magnitude 5.1 earthquake of 11 March 2002 in Fujairah Masafi demonstrated that earthquakes can occur in the UAE. The threat of large earthquakes in southern Iran is well known to seismologist, but people generally do not realize that the international expert team that assessed the earthquake hazard for the entire world placed the UAE into the same class as many parts of Iran and Turkey, as well as California. There is no question that large earthquakes will occur again in southern Iran and that moderate earthquakes will happen again in the UAE. The only question is: when will they happen? From the history of earthquakes, we have an understanding, although limited to the last few decades, of what size earthquakes may be expected. For this reason, it is timely to estimate the probable consequences in the UAE of a large to great earthquake in southern Iran and a moderate earthquake in the UAE themselves. We propose to estimate the number of possible injuries, fatalities, and the financial loss in building value that might occur in the UAE in several future likely earthquakes. This estimate will be based on scenario earthquakes with positions and magnitudes determined by us, based on seismic hazard maps. Scenario earthquakes are events that are very likely to occur in the future, because similar ones have happened in the past. The time when they may happen will not be estimated in this work. The input for calculating the earthquake risk in the UAE, as we propose, will be the census figures for the population and the estimated properties of the building stock. WAPPMERR is the only research group capable to make these estimates for the UAE. The deliverables will be a scientific manuscript to be submitted to a reviewed journal, which will contain tables and figures showing the estimated numbers of (a) people killed and (b) people injured (slightly and seriously counted separately), (c) buildings

  18. Concentrations of Prioritized Pharmaceuticals in Effluents from 50 Large Wastewater Treatment Plants in the US and Implications for Risk Estimation

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    PDF file of Concentrations of Prioritized Pharmaceuticals in Effluents from 50 Large Wastewater Treatment Plants in the US and Implications for Risk Estimation by Mitchell Kostich, Angella Batt, and James Lazorchak

  19. Bayesian Monte Carlo and Maximum Likelihood Approach for Uncertainty Estimation and Risk Management: Application to Lake Oxygen Recovery Model

    EPA Science Inventory

    Model uncertainty estimation and risk assessment is essential to environmental management and informed decision making on pollution mitigation strategies. In this study, we apply a probabilistic methodology, which combines Bayesian Monte Carlo simulation and Maximum Likelihood e...

  20. Psychosis Prediction: Stratification of Risk Estimation With Information-Processing and Premorbid Functioning Variables

    PubMed Central

    Nieman, Dorien H.; Ruhrmann, Stephan; Dragt, Sara; Soen, Francesca; van Tricht, Mirjam J.; Koelman, Johannes H. T .M.; Bour, Lo J; Velthorst, Eva; Becker, Hiske E.; Weiser, Mark; Linszen, Don H.; de Haan, Lieuwe

    2014-01-01

    Background: The period preceding the first psychotic episode is regarded as a promising period for intervention. We aimed to develop an optimized prediction model of a first psychosis, considering different sources of information. The outcome of this model may be used for individualized risk estimation. Methods: Sixty-one subjects clinically at high risk (CHR), participating in the Dutch Prediction of Psychosis Study, were assessed at baseline with instruments yielding data on neuropsychology, symptomatology, environmental factors, premorbid adjustment, and neurophysiology. The follow-up period was 36 months. Results: At 36 months, 18 participants (29.5%) had made a transition to psychosis. Premorbid adjustment (P = .001, hazard ratio [HR] = 2.13, 95% CI = 1.39/3.28) and parietal P300 amplitude (P = .004, HR = 1.27, 95% CI = 1.08/1.45) remained as predictors in the Cox proportional hazard model. The resulting prognostic score (PS) showed a sensitivity of 88.9% and a specificity of 82.5%. The area under the curve of the PS was 0.91 (95% CI = 0.83–0.98, cross-validation: 0.86), indicating an outstanding ability of the model to discriminate between transition and nontransition. The PS was further stratified into 3 risk classes establishing a prognostic index. In the class with the worst social-personal adjustment and lowest P300 amplitudes, 74% of the subjects made a transition to psychosis. Furthermore, transition emerged on average more than 17 months earlier than in the lowest risk class. Conclusions: Our results suggest that predicting a first psychotic episode in CHR subjects could be improved with a model including premorbid adjustment and information-processing variables in a multistep algorithm combining risk detection and stratification. PMID:24142369

  1. Estimating Geographical Variation in the Risk of Zoonotic Plasmodium knowlesi Infection in Countries Eliminating Malaria

    PubMed Central

    Shearer, Freya M.; Huang, Zhi; Weiss, Daniel J.; Wiebe, Antoinette; Gibson, Harry S.; Battle, Katherine E.; Pigott, David M.; Brady, Oliver J.; Putaporntip, Chaturong; Jongwutiwes, Somchai; Lau, Yee Ling; Manske, Magnus; Amato, Roberto; Elyazar, Iqbal R. F.; Vythilingam, Indra; Bhatt, Samir; Gething, Peter W.; Singh, Balbir; Golding, Nick; Hay, Simon I.

    2016-01-01

    Background Infection by the simian malaria parasite, Plasmodium knowlesi, can lead to severe and fatal disease in humans, and is the most common cause of malaria in parts of Malaysia. Despite being a serious public health concern, the geographical distribution of P. knowlesi malaria risk is poorly understood because the parasite is often misidentified as one of the human malarias. Human cases have been confirmed in at least nine Southeast Asian countries, many of which are making progress towards eliminating the human malarias. Understanding the geographical distribution of P. knowlesi is important for identifying areas where malaria transmission will continue after the human malarias have been eliminated. Methodology/Principal Findings A total of 439 records of P. knowlesi infections in humans, macaque reservoir and vector species were collated. To predict spatial variation in disease risk, a model was fitted using records from countries where the infection data coverage is high. Predictions were then made throughout Southeast Asia, including regions where infection data are sparse. The resulting map predicts areas of high risk for P. knowlesi infection in a number of countries that are forecast to be malaria-free by 2025 (Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam) as well as countries projected to be eliminating malaria (Myanmar, Laos, Indonesia and the Philippines). Conclusions/Significance We have produced the first map of P. knowlesi malaria risk, at a fine-scale resolution, to identify priority areas for surveillance based on regions with sparse data and high estimated risk. Our map provides an initial evidence base to better understand the spatial distribution of this disease and its potential wider contribution to malaria incidence. Considering malaria elimination goals, areas for prioritised surveillance are identified. PMID:27494405

  2. Prospective validity of the Estimate of Risk of Adolescent Sexual Offense Recidivism (ERASOR).

    PubMed

    Worling, James R; Bookalam, David; Litteljohn, Ariel

    2012-06-01

    Data from the Estimate of Risk of Adolescent Sexual Offense Recidivism (ERASOR; Worling & Curwen) were collected for a sample of 191 adolescent males who had offended sexually. Adolescents were aged 12 to 19 years (M = 15.34; SD = 1.53) at the time of their participation in a comprehensive assessment. The ERASOR was completed by 1 of 22 clinicians immediately following each assessment. Forty-five adolescents were independently rated by pairs of clinicians, and significant interrater agreement was found for the ERASOR risk factors, the clinical judgment ratings (low, moderate, or high), and a total score. Recidivism data (criminal charges) were subsequently collected from three sources that spanned a follow-up period between 0.1 and 7.9 years (M = 3.66; SD = 2.08). Overall, 9.4% (18 of 191) of the adolescents were charged with a subsequent sexual offense over this time period. A shorter follow-up interval of up to 2.5 years (M = 1.4; SD = 0.71) was also examined. Recidivism data for the shorter follow-up interval were available for a subgroup of 70 adolescents, with a comparable recidivism rate of 8.6% (6 of 70). Clinical judgment ratings, the total score, and the sum of risk factors rated as present were significantly predictive of sexual reoffending for the short follow-up period. The total score and the sum of risk factors were predictive of sexual reoffending over the entire follow-up interval. These results add to the emerging research supporting the reliability and validity of structured risk assessment tools for adolescent sexual recidivism.

  3. Bomb survivor selection and consequences for estimates of population cancer risks.

    PubMed

    Little, M P; Charles, M W

    1990-12-01

    Health records of the Japanese bomb survivor population [with the 1965 (T65D) and 1986 (DS86) dosimetry systems] have been analyzed and some evidence found for the selection effect hypothesized by Stewart and Kneale. This is found to be significant in only the first of the periods examined (1950-1958), and the effect diminishes in magnitude thereafter. There are indications that the effect might be an artifact of the T65D dosimetry, in which it is observed more strongly than in the DS86 data. There is no evidence to suggest that selection on this basis might confer correspondingly reduced susceptibility to radiation-induced cancer. If, however, one makes this assumption, as suggested by Stewart and Kneale, then current estimates of population cancer risks might need to be inflated by between 5% and 35% (for excess cancer deaths, Gy-1) or between 8% and 40% (for years of life lost, Gy-1) to account for this. It is likely that these figures, even assuming them not to be simply an artifact of the T65D dosimetry, overestimate the degree of adjustment required to the risk estimates.

  4. Applying quality criteria to exposure in asbestos epidemiology increases the estimated risk.

    PubMed

    Burdorf, Alex; Heederik, Dick

    2011-07-01

    Mesothelioma deaths due to environmental exposure to asbestos in The Netherlands led to parliamentary concern that exposure guidelines were not strict enough. The Health Council of the Netherlands was asked for advice. Its report has recently been published. The question of quality of the exposure estimates was studied more systematically than in previous asbestos meta-analyses. Five criteria of quality of exposure information were applied, and cohort studies that failed to meet these were excluded. For lung cancer, this decreased the number of cohorts included from 19 to 3 and increased the risk estimate 3- to 6-fold, with the requirements for good historical data on exposure and job history having the largest effects. It also suggested that the apparent differences in lung cancer potency between amphiboles and chrysotile may be produced by lower quality studies. A similar pattern was seen for mesothelioma. As a result, the Health Council has proposed that the occupational exposure limit be reduced from 10 000 fibres m(-3) (all types) to 250 f m(-3) (amphiboles), 1300 f m(-3) (mixed fibres), and 2000 f m(-3) (chrysotile). The process illustrates the importance of evaluating quality of exposure in epidemiology since poor quality of exposure data will lead to underestimated risk.

  5. A framework for estimating radiation-related cancer risks in Japan from the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident.

    PubMed

    Walsh, L; Zhang, W; Shore, R E; Auvinen, A; Laurier, D; Wakeford, R; Jacob, P; Gent, N; Anspaugh, L R; Schüz, J; Kesminiene, A; van Deventer, E; Tritscher, A; del Rosarion Pérez, M

    2014-11-01

    We present here a methodology for health risk assessment adopted by the World Health Organization that provides a framework for estimating risks from the Fukushima nuclear accident after the March 11, 2011 Japanese major earthquake and tsunami. Substantial attention has been given to the possible health risks associated with human exposure to radiation from damaged reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station. Cumulative doses were estimated and applied for each post-accident year of life, based on a reference level of exposure during the first year after the earthquake. A lifetime cumulative dose of twice the first year dose was estimated for the primary radionuclide contaminants ((134)Cs and (137)Cs) and are based on Chernobyl data, relative abundances of cesium isotopes, and cleanup efforts. Risks for particularly radiosensitive cancer sites (leukemia, thyroid and breast cancer), as well as the combined risk for all solid cancers were considered. The male and female cumulative risks of cancer incidence attributed to radiation doses from the accident, for those exposed at various ages, were estimated in terms of the lifetime attributable risk (LAR). Calculations of LAR were based on recent Japanese population statistics for cancer incidence and current radiation risk models from the Life Span Study of Japanese A-bomb survivors. Cancer risks over an initial period of 15 years after first exposure were also considered. LAR results were also given as a percentage of the lifetime baseline risk (i.e., the cancer risk in the absence of radiation exposure from the accident). The LAR results were based on either a reference first year dose (10 mGy) or a reference lifetime dose (20 mGy) so that risk assessment may be applied for relocated and non-relocated members of the public, as well as for adult male emergency workers. The results show that the major contribution to LAR from the reference lifetime dose comes from the first year dose. For a dose of 10 mGy in

  6. Regional estimation of design precipitation totals by simple scaling for flood risk prediction in Slovakia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bara, Marta; Kohnova, Silvia; Gaal, Ladislav; Szolgay, Jan; Hlavcova, Kamila

    2010-05-01

    Design values of extreme rainfall are of very great importance in engineering hydrology, such as input data for hydrological modeling, for the prediction of flood events, or for planning and design in water resources management. Precipitation data with sufficient temporal resolution necessary for estimation of design precipitation totals are available from a limited number of raingauges with continuous recording. One of the advantages of the simple scaling method is, that it allows estimating of design precipitation totals for required durations and recurrence intervals using daily data, available from a denser network of non-recording raingauges. In this study the possibility of using the simple scaling method for regional estimation of design short-term precipitation totals for flood risk forecasting was tested. The analysis includes precipitation data from 56 raingauge stations from the whole territory of Slovakia, distributed into three homogeneous regions based on regionalization of the daily maximum precipitation totals in the warm season (April-September). The regional dimensionless growth curve of daily precipitation maxima was derived in the regions, and the local T-year quantiles were estimated by the index value method. In each region three verification stations were selected which were treated as ungauged sites. It was supposed that the only information on the precipitation regime at the verification stations was the index value. Using the regionally averaged scaling exponent, the IDF curves were estimated by downscaling the design daily precipitation totals. The IDF curves were finally compared with those assessed locally in previous studies and their application in engineering practice was discussed.

  7. Estimation of Wild Fire Risk Area based on Climate and Maximum Entropy in Korean Peninsular

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, T.; Lim, C. H.; Song, C.; Lee, W. K.

    2015-12-01

    The number of forest fires and accompanying human injuries and physical damages has been increased by frequent drought. In this study, forest fire danger zone of Korea is estimated to predict and prepare for future forest fire hazard regions. The MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy) model is used to estimate the forest fire hazard region which estimates the probability distribution of the status. The MaxEnt model is primarily for the analysis of species distribution, but its applicability for various natural disasters is getting recognition. The detailed forest fire occurrence data collected by the MODIS for past 5 years (2010-2014) is used as occurrence data for the model. Also meteorology, topography, vegetation data are used as environmental variable. In particular, various meteorological variables are used to check impact of climate such as annual average temperature, annual precipitation, precipitation of dry season, annual effective humidity, effective humidity of dry season, aridity index. Consequently, the result was valid based on the AUC(Area Under the Curve) value (= 0.805) which is used to predict accuracy in the MaxEnt model. Also predicted forest fire locations were practically corresponded with the actual forest fire distribution map. Meteorological variables such as effective humidity showed the greatest contribution, and topography variables such as TWI (Topographic Wetness Index) and slope also contributed on the forest fire. As a result, the east coast and the south part of Korea peninsula were predicted to have high risk on the forest fire. In contrast, high-altitude mountain area and the west coast appeared to be safe with the forest fire. The result of this study is similar with former studies, which indicates high risks of forest fire in accessible area and reflects climatic characteristics of east and south part in dry season. To sum up, we estimated the forest fire hazard zone with existing forest fire locations and environment variables and had

  8. Risk estimation for multifactorial diseases. A report of the International Commission on Radiological Protection.

    PubMed

    1999-01-01

    assessing the impact of radiation-induced mutations on the frequencies of multifactorial diseases in the population.The mutation component (MC) of genetic diseases quantifies the responsiveness of the genetic component of a disease to an increase in mutation rate (e.g. after radiation exposure). This report integrates the concepts of liability and threshold (from the MTM model) and of mutation-selection equilibrium (from mechanistic population genetic models) into the 'Finite Locus Threshold Model' (FLTM) for estimating MC for multifactorial diseases and the relationship between MC and h(2) of these diseases. Computer simulation studies illustrate the effects of one-time or a permanent increase in mutation rate on MC for multifactorial diseases.Finally, the report addresses the estimation of the radiation risk of multifactorial diseases. A formal revision of the estimates of risk of multifactorial diseases (and also of mendelian diseases) contained in the 1990 Recommendations of ICRP, Publication 60, must await the results of studies currently underway. While future genetic risk estimates are likely to be lower than those in current use, until the new ones become available, those provided in Publication 60 may be regarded as being adequate for use in radiological protection- they are unlikely to underestimate risk.

  9. Identification and estimation of socioeconomic impacts resulting from perceived risks and changing images; An annotated bibliography

    SciTech Connect

    Nieves, L.A.; Wernette, D.R.; Hemphill, R.C.; Mohiudden, S.; Corso, J.

    1990-02-01

    In 1982, the US Congress passed the Nuclear Waste Policy Act to initiate the process of choosing a location to permanently store high-level nuclear waste from the designated Yucca Mountain, Nevada, as the only location to be studied as a candidate site for such a repository. The original acts and its amendments had established the grant mechanism by which the state of Nevada could finance an investigation of the potential socioeconomic impacts that could result from the installation and operation of this facility. Over the past three years, the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM or RW) in the US Department of Energy (DOE) has approved grant requests by Nevada to perform this investigation. This report is intended to update and enhance a literature review conducted by the Human Affairs Research Center (HARC) for the Basalt Waste Isolation Project that dealt with the psychological and sociological processes underlying risk perception. It provides addition information on the HARC work, covers a subsequent step in the impact-estimation process, and translates risk perception into decisions and behaviors with economic consequences. It also covers recently developed techniques for assessing the nature and magnitude of impacts caused by environmental changes focusing on those impacts caused by changes in perceived risks.

  10. Estimation of wildfire size and risk changes due to fuels treatments

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cochrane, M.A.; Moran, C.J.; Wimberly, M.C.; Baer, A.D.; Finney, M.A.; Beckendorf, K.L.; Eidenshink, J.; Zhu, Z.

    2012-01-01

    Human land use practices, altered climates, and shifting forest and fire management policies have increased the frequency of large wildfires several-fold. Mitigation of potential fire behaviour and fire severity have increasingly been attempted through pre-fire alteration of wildland fuels using mechanical treatments and prescribed fires. Despite annual treatment of more than a million hectares of land, quantitative assessments of the effectiveness of existing fuel treatments at reducing the size of actual wildfires or how they might alter the risk of burning across landscapes are currently lacking. Here, we present a method for estimating spatial probabilities of burning as a function of extant fuels treatments for any wildland fire-affected landscape. We examined the landscape effects of more than 72 000 ha of wildland fuel treatments involved in 14 large wildfires that burned 314 000 ha of forests in nine US states between 2002 and 2010. Fuels treatments altered the probability of fire occurrence both positively and negatively across landscapes, effectively redistributing fire risk by changing surface fire spread rates and reducing the likelihood of crowning behaviour. Trade offs are created between formation of large areas with low probabilities of increased burning and smaller, well-defined regions with reduced fire risk.

  11. Estimation of infectious risks in residential populations exposed to airborne pathogens during center pivot irrigation of dairy wastewaters

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    In the western United States where dairy wastewaters are commonly land applied, there are concerns over individuals being exposed to airborne pathogens. In response, a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) was performed to estimate infectious risks after inhalation exposure of pathogens aero...

  12. An unbiased risk estimator for image denoising in the presence of mixed poisson-gaussian noise.

    PubMed

    Le Montagner, Yoann; Angelini, Elsa D; Olivo-Marin, Jean-Christophe

    2014-03-01

    The behavior and performance of denoising algorithms are governed by one or several parameters, whose optimal settings depend on the content of the processed image and the characteristics of the noise, and are generally designed to minimize the mean squared error (MSE) between the denoised image returned by the algorithm and a virtual ground truth. In this paper, we introduce a new Poisson-Gaussian unbiased risk estimator (PG-URE) of the MSE applicable to a mixed Poisson-Gaussian noise model that unifies the widely used Gaussian and Poisson noise models in fluorescence bioimaging applications. We propose a stochastic methodology to evaluate this estimator in the case when little is known about the internal machinery of the considered denoising algorithm, and we analyze both theoretically and empirically the characteristics of the PG-URE estimator. Finally, we evaluate the PG-URE-driven parametrization for three standard denoising algorithms, with and without variance stabilizing transforms, and different characteristics of the Poisson-Gaussian noise mixture.

  13. Safety margins estimation method considering uncertainties within the risk-informed decision-making framework

    SciTech Connect

    Martorell, S.; Nebot, Y.; Vilanueva, J. F.; Carlos, S.; Serradell, V.

    2006-07-01

    The adoption by regulators of the risk-informed decision-making philosophy has opened the debate on the role of the deterministic and probabilistic approaches to support regulatory matters of concern to NPP safety (e.g. safety margins, core damage frequency, etc.). However, the typical separation of the application fields does not imply that both methods cannot benefit from each other. On the contrary, there is a growing interest nowadays aimed at developing methods for using probabilistic safety analysis results into requirements and assumptions in deterministic analysis and vice versa. Thus, it appears an interesting challenge for the technical community aimed at combining best estimate thermal-hydraulic codes with probabilistic techniques to produce an effective and feasible technology, which should provide more realistic, complete and logical measure of reactor safety. This paper proposes a new unified framework to estimate safety margins using a best estimate thermal-hydraulic code with help of data and models from a level 1 LPSA (low power and shutdown probabilistic safety assessment - PSA) and considering simultaneously the uncertainty associated to both probabilistic and thermal-hydraulic codes. It is also presented an application example that demonstrates the performance and significance of the method and the relevance of the results achieved to the safety of nuclear power plants. (authors)

  14. External validation, repeat determination, and precision of risk estimation in misclassified exposure data in epidemiology.

    PubMed Central

    Duffy, S W; Maximovitch, D M; Day, N E

    1992-01-01

    STUDY OBJECTIVE--The aim was to quantify the difference in precision of risk estimates in epidemiology between the situations where misclassification of exposure is corrected for by external validation and where it is corrected for by internal repeat measurement. Precision was measured in terms of the expected width of the 95% confidence interval on the odds ratio. DESIGN--In a hypothetical case-control study, first with 100 cases and 100 controls, then with 100 cases and 1000 controls (the latter to approximate the cohort study situation), expected estimated odds ratios and confidence intervals were calculated based on postulated underlying true odds ratios and misclassification error rates. The sizes of the confidence intervals using the two design strategies were compared, based on the same number of subjects receiving internal repeat measurements as were used in the external validation study. MAIN RESULTS--Confidence intervals obtained using internal repeat measurement were considerably narrower than those using external validation. Both methods yielded approximately correct point estimates. CONCLUSIONS--In terms of precision, it is preferable to correct for misclassification using internal repeat measurement rather than external validation. PMID:1494080

  15. A probabilistic method for the estimation of residual risk in donated blood.

    PubMed

    Bish, Ebru K; Ragavan, Prasanna K; Bish, Douglas R; Slonim, Anthony D; Stramer, Susan L

    2014-10-01

    The residual risk (RR) of transfusion-transmitted infections, including the human immunodeficiency virus and hepatitis B and C viruses, is typically estimated by the incidence[Formula: see text]window period model, which relies on the following restrictive assumptions: Each screening test, with probability 1, (1) detects an infected unit outside of the test's window period; (2) fails to detect an infected unit within the window period; and (3) correctly identifies an infection-free unit. These assumptions need not hold in practice due to random or systemic errors and individual variations in the window period. We develop a probability model that accurately estimates the RR by relaxing these assumptions, and quantify their impact using a published cost-effectiveness study and also within an optimization model. These assumptions lead to inaccurate estimates in cost-effectiveness studies and to sub-optimal solutions in the optimization model. The testing solution generated by the optimization model translates into fewer expected infections without an increase in the testing cost.

  16. Cryogenic, Absolute, High Pressure Sensor

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chapman, John J. (Inventor); Shams. Qamar A. (Inventor); Powers, William T. (Inventor)

    2001-01-01

    A pressure sensor is provided for cryogenic, high pressure applications. A highly doped silicon piezoresistive pressure sensor is bonded to a silicon substrate in an absolute pressure sensing configuration. The absolute pressure sensor is bonded to an aluminum nitride substrate. Aluminum nitride has appropriate coefficient of thermal expansion for use with highly doped silicon at cryogenic temperatures. A group of sensors, either two sensors on two substrates or four sensors on a single substrate are packaged in a pressure vessel.

  17. Use of health effect risk estimates and uncertainty in formal regulatory proceedings: a case study involving atmospheric particulates

    SciTech Connect

    Habegger, L.J.; Oezkaynak, A.H.

    1984-01-01

    Coal combustion particulates are released to the atmosphere by power plants supplying electrical to the nuclear fuel cycle. This paper presents estimates of the public health risks associated with the release of these particulates at a rate associated with the annual nuclear fuel production requirements for a nuclear power plan. Utilization of these risk assessments as a new component in the formal evaluation of total risks from nuclear power plants is discussed. 23 references, 3 tables.

  18. Estimated Reduction in Cancer Risk due to PAH Exposures If Source Control Measures during the 2008 Beijing Olympics Were Sustained

    PubMed Central

    Jia, Yuling; Stone, Dave; Wang, Wentao; Schrlau, Jill; Tao, Shu; Massey Simonich, Staci L.

    2011-01-01

    Background The 2008 Beijing Olympic Games provided a unique case study to investigate the effect of source control measures on the reduction in air pollution, and associated inhalation cancer risk, in a Chinese megacity. Objectives We measured 17 carcinogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and estimated the lifetime excess inhalation cancer risk during different periods of the Beijing Olympic Games, to assess the effectiveness of source control measures in reducing PAH-induced inhalation cancer risks. Methods PAH concentrations were measured in samples of particulate matter ≤ 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) collected during the Beijing Olympic Games, and the associated inhalation cancer risks were estimated using a point-estimate approach based on relative potency factors. Results We estimated the number of lifetime excess cancer cases due to exposure to the 17 carcinogenic PAHs [12 priority pollutant PAHs and five high-molecular-weight (302 Da) PAHs (MW 302 PAHs)] to range from 6.5 to 518 per million people for the source control period concentrations and from 12.2 to 964 per million people for the nonsource control period concentrations. This would correspond to a 46% reduction in estimated inhalation cancer risk due to source control measures, if these measures were sustained over time. Benzo[b]fluoranthene, dibenz[a,h]anthracene, benzo[a]pyrene, and dibenzo[a,l]pyrene were the most carcinogenic PAH species evaluated. Total excess inhalation cancer risk would be underestimated by 23% if we did not include the five MW 302 PAHs in the risk calculation. Conclusions Source control measures, such as those imposed during the 2008 Beijing Olympics, can significantly reduce the inhalation cancer risk associated with PAH exposure in Chinese megacities similar to Beijing. MW 302 PAHs are a significant contributor to the estimated overall inhalation cancer risk. PMID:21632310

  19. The use of individual and societal risk criteria within the Dutch flood safety policy--nationwide estimates of societal risk and policy applications.

    PubMed

    Jonkman, Sebastiaan N; Jongejan, Ruben; Maaskant, Bob

    2011-02-01

    The Dutch government is in the process of revising its flood safety policy. The current safety standards for flood defenses in the Netherlands are largely based on the outcomes of cost-benefit analyses. Loss of life has not been considered separately in the choice for current standards. This article presents the results of a research project that evaluated the potential roles of two risk metrics, individual and societal risk, to support decision making about new flood safety standards. These risk metrics are already used in the Dutch major hazards policy for the evaluation of risks to the public. Individual risk concerns the annual probability of death of a person. Societal risk concerns the probability of an event with many fatalities. Technical aspects of the use of individual and societal risk metrics in flood risk assessments as well as policy implications are discussed. Preliminary estimates of nationwide levels of societal risk are presented. Societal risk levels appear relatively high in the southwestern part of the country where densely populated dike rings are threatened by a combination of river and coastal floods. It was found that cumulation, the simultaneous flooding of multiple dike rings during a single flood event, has significant impact on the national level of societal risk. Options for the application of the individual and societal risk in the new flood safety policy are presented and discussed.

  20. Value at risk estimation using independent component analysis-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ICA-GARCH) models.

    PubMed

    Wu, Edmond H C; Yu, Philip L H; Li, W K

    2006-10-01

    We suggest using independent component analysis (ICA) to decompose multivariate time series into statistically independent time series. Then, we propose to use ICA-GARCH models which are computationally efficient to estimate the multivariate volatilities. The experimental results show that the ICA-GARCH models are more effective than existing methods, including DCC, PCA-GARCH, and EWMA. We also apply the proposed models to compute value at risk (VaR) for risk management applications. The backtesting and the out-of-sample tests validate the performance of ICA-GARCH models for value at risk estimation.

  1. TNFA Haplotype Genetic Testing Improves HLA in Estimating the Risk of Celiac Disease in Children

    PubMed Central

    Zambon, Carlo-Federico; Navaglia, Filippo; Greco, Eliana; Pelloso, Michela; Artuso, Serena; Padoan, Andrea; Pescarin, Matilde; Aita, Ada; Bozzato, Dania; Moz, Stefania; Cananzi, Mara; Guariso, Graziella; Plebani, Mario

    2015-01-01

    Background TNF-α and IFN-γ play a role in the development of mucosal damage in celiac disease (CD). Polymorphisms of TNFA and IFNG genes, as well as of the TNFRSF1A gene, encoding the TNF-α receptor 1, might underlie different inter-individual disease susceptibility over a common HLA risk background. The aims of this study were to ascertain whether five SNPs in the TNFA promoter (-1031T>C,-857C>T,-376G>A,-308G>A,-238G>A), sequence variants of the TNFRSF1A gene and IFNG +874A>T polymorphism are associated with CD in a HLA independent manner. Methods 511 children (244 CD, 267 controls) were genotyped for HLA, TNFA and INFG (Real Time PCR). TNFRSF1A variants were studied (DHPLC and sequence). Results Only the rare TNFA-1031C (OR=0.65, 95% CI:0.44-0.95), -857T (OR=0.42, 95% CI:0.27-0.65), -376A (OR=2.25, 95% CI:1.12-4.51) and -308A (OR=4.76, 95% CI:3.12-7.26) alleles were significantly associated with CD. One TNFRSF1A variant was identified (c.625+10A>G, rs1800693), but not associated with CD. The CD-correlated TNFA SNPs resulted in six haplotypes. Two haplotypes were control-associated (CCGG and TTGG) and three were CD-associated (CCAG, TCGA and CCGA). The seventeen inferred haplotype combinations were grouped (A to E) based on their frequencies among CD. Binary logistic regression analysis documented a strong association between CD and HLA (OR for intermediate risk haplotypes=178; 95% CI:24-1317; OR for high risk haplotypes=2752; 95% CI:287-26387), but also an HLA-independent correlation between CD and TNFA haplotype combination groups. The CD risk for patients carrying an intermediate risk HLA haplotype could be sub-stratified by TNFA haplotype combinations. Conclusion TNFA promoter haplotypes associate with CD independently from HLA. We suggest that their evaluation might enhance the accuracy in estimating the CD genetic risk. PMID:25915602

  2. Cryptosporidium and Giardia in tropical recreational marine waters contaminated with domestic sewage: estimation of bathing-associated disease risks.

    PubMed

    Betancourt, Walter Q; Duarte, Diana C; Vásquez, Rosa C; Gurian, Patrick L

    2014-08-15

    Sewage is a major contributor to pollution problems involving human pathogens in tropical coastal areas. This study investigated the occurrence of intestinal protozoan parasites (Giardia and Cryptosporidium) in tropical recreational marine waters contaminated with sewage. The potential risks of Cryptosporidium and Giardia infection from recreational water exposure were estimated from the levels of viable (oo) cysts (DIC+, DAPI+, PI-) found in near-shore swimming areas using an exponential dose response model. A Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis was performed in order to determine the probability distribution of risks. Microbial indicators of recreational water quality (enterococci, Clostridium perfringens) and genetic markers of sewage pollution (human-specific Bacteroidales marker [HF183] and Clostridium coccoides) were simultaneously evaluated in order to estimate the extent of water quality deterioration associated with human wastes. The study revealed the potential risk of parasite infections via primary contact with tropical marine waters contaminated with sewage; higher risk estimates for Giardia than for Cryptosporidium were found. Mean risks estimated by Monte Carlo were below the U.S. EPA upper bound on recreational risk of 0.036 for cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis for both children and adults. However, 95th percentile estimates for giardiasis for children exceeded the 0.036 level. Environmental surveillance of microbial pathogens is crucial in order to control and eradicate the effects that increasing anthropogenic impacts have on marine ecosystems and human health.

  3. Estimates of Radiation Effects on Cancer Risks in the Mayak Worker, Techa River and Atomic Bomb Survivor Studies.

    PubMed

    Preston, Dale L; Sokolnikov, Mikhail E; Krestinina, Lyudmila Yu; Stram, Daniel O

    2016-11-24

    For almost 50 y, the Life Span Study cohort of atomic bomb survivor studies has been the primary source of the quantitative estimates of cancer and non-cancer risks that form the basis of international radiation protection standards. However, the long-term follow-up and extensive individual dose reconstruction for the Russian Mayak worker cohort (MWC) and Techa River cohort (TRC) are providing quantitative information about radiation effects on cancer risks that complement the atomic bomb survivor-based risk estimates. The MWC, which includes ~26 000 men and women who began working at Mayak between 1948 and 1982, is the primary source for estimates of the effects of plutonium on cancer risks and also provides information on the effects of low-dose rate external gamma exposures. The TRC consists of ~30 000 men and women of all ages who received low-dose-rate, low-dose exposures as a consequence of Mayak's release of radioactive material into the Techa River. The TRC data are of interest because the exposures are broadly similar to those experienced by populations exposed as a consequence of nuclear accidents such as Chernobyl. In this presentation, it is described the strengths and limitations of these three cohorts, outline and compare recent solid cancer and leukemia risk estimates and discussed why information from the Mayak and Techa River studies might play a role in the development and refinement of the radiation risk estimates that form the basis for radiation protection standards.

  4. Patients with Testicular Cancer Undergoing CT Surveillance Demonstrate a Pitfall of Radiation-induced Cancer Risk Estimates: The Timing Paradox

    PubMed Central

    Eisenberg, Jonathan D.; Lee, Richard J.; Gilmore, Michael E.; Turan, Ekin A.; Singh, Sarabjeet; Kalra, Mannudeep K.; Liu, Bob; Kong, Chung Yin; Gazelle, G. Scott

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: To demonstrate a limitation of lifetime radiation-induced cancer risk metrics in the setting of testicular cancer surveillance—in particular, their failure to capture the delayed timing of radiation-induced cancers over the course of a patient’s lifetime. Materials and Methods: Institutional review board approval was obtained for the use of computed tomographic (CT) dosimetry data in this study. Informed consent was waived. This study was HIPAA compliant. A Markov model was developed to project outcomes in patients with testicular cancer who were undergoing CT surveillance in the decade after orchiectomy. To quantify effects of early versus delayed risks, life expectancy losses and lifetime mortality risks due to testicular cancer were compared with life expectancy losses and lifetime mortality risks due to radiation-induced cancers from CT. Projections of life expectancy loss, unlike lifetime risk estimates, account for the timing of risks over the course of a lifetime, which enabled evaluation of the described limitation of lifetime risk estimates. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods were used to estimate the uncertainty of the results. Results: As an example of evidence yielded, 33-year-old men with stage I seminoma who were undergoing CT surveillance were projected to incur a slightly higher lifetime mortality risk from testicular cancer (598 per 100 000; 95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 302, 894) than from radiation-induced cancers (505 per 100 000; 95% UI: 280, 730). However, life expectancy loss attributable to testicular cancer (83 days; 95% UI: 42, 124) was more than three times greater than life expectancy loss attributable to radiation-induced cancers (24 days; 95% UI: 13, 35). Trends were consistent across modeled scenarios. Conclusion: Lifetime radiation risk estimates, when used for decision making, may overemphasize radiation-induced cancer risks relative to short-term health risks. © RSNA, 2012 Supplemental material: http

  5. Improved risk estimated from carbon tetrachloride. Annual progress report, October 1, 1996--September 30, 1997

    SciTech Connect

    Benson, J.M.

    1997-10-27

    'Carbon tetrachloride (CCl{sub 4}) has been used extensively within the Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear weapons facilities. Rocky Flats was formerly the largest volume user of CCl{sub 4} in the US, with 5,000 gallons used there in 1977 alone. At the Hanford site, several hundred thousand gallons of CCl{sub 4} were discharged between 1955 and 1973 into underground cribs for storage. Levels of CCl{sub 4} in groundwater at highly contaminated sites at the Hanford. facility have exceeded the drinking water standard of 5 ppb by several orders of magnitude. High levels of CCl{sub 4} at these facilities represent a potential health hazard for workers conducting cleanup operations and for surrounding communities. The level of CCl{sub 4} cleanup required at these sites and associated costs are driven by current human health risk estimates which assume that CCl{sub 4} is a genotoxic carcinogen. The overall purpose of these studies is to improve the scientific basis for assessing the health risk associated with human exposure to CCl{sub 4}. Specifically, the authors will determine the toxicokinetics of inhaled and ingested CCl{sub 4} in F344/Crl rats, B6C3F1 mice, and Syrian hamsters. They will also evaluate species differences in the metabolism of CCl{sub 4} by rats, mice, hamsters, and man. Dose-response relationships will be determined in all these studies. This information will be used to improve the physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for CCl4 originally developed by Paustenbach et al. (1988) and more recently revised by Thrall and Kenny (1996). They will also provide scientific evidence that CCl{sub 4} , like chloroform, is a hepatocarcinogen only when exposure results in cell damage, cell killing, and regenerative cell proliferation. In combination, the studies outlined in this proposal will provide the exact types of information needed to enable refined cancer risk estimates for CCl{sub 4} under the new guidelines for risk assessment proposed by the

  6. Flood risk assessment in France: comparison of extreme flood estimation methods (EXTRAFLO project, Task 7)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garavaglia, F.; Paquet, E.; Lang, M.; Renard, B.; Arnaud, P.; Aubert, Y.; Carre, J.

    2013-12-01

    In flood risk assessment the methods can be divided in two families: deterministic methods and probabilistic methods. In the French hydrologic community the probabilistic methods are historically preferred to the deterministic ones. Presently a French research project named EXTRAFLO (RiskNat Program of the French National Research Agency, https://extraflo.cemagref.fr) deals with the design values for extreme rainfall and floods. The object of this project is to carry out a comparison of the main methods used in France for estimating extreme values of rainfall and floods, to obtain a better grasp of their respective fields of application. In this framework we present the results of Task 7 of EXTRAFLO project. Focusing on French watersheds, we compare the main extreme flood estimation methods used in French background: (i) standard flood frequency analysis (Gumbel and GEV distribution), (ii) regional flood frequency analysis (regional Gumbel and GEV distribution), (iii) local and regional flood frequency analysis improved by historical information (Naulet et al., 2005), (iv) simplify probabilistic method based on rainfall information (i.e. Gradex method (CFGB, 1994), Agregee method (Margoum, 1992) and Speed method (Cayla, 1995)), (v) flood frequency analysis by continuous simulation approach and based on rainfall information (i.e. Schadex method (Paquet et al., 2013, Garavaglia et al., 2010), Shyreg method (Lavabre et al., 2003)) and (vi) multifractal approach. The main result of this comparative study is that probabilistic methods based on additional information (i.e. regional, historical and rainfall information) provide better estimations than the standard flood frequency analysis. Another interesting result is that, the differences between the various extreme flood quantile estimations of compared methods increase with return period, staying relatively moderate up to 100-years return levels. Results and discussions are here illustrated throughout with the example

  7. Improved Radiation Dosimetry/Risk Estimates to Facilitate Environmental Management of Plutonium-Contaminated Sites

    SciTech Connect

    Scott, Bobby R.; Tokarskaya, Zoya B.; Zhuntova, Galina V.; Osovets, Sergey V.; Syrchikov, Victor A., Belyaeva, Zinaida D.

    2007-12-14

    This report summarizes 4 years of research achievements in this Office of Science (BER), U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) project. The research described was conducted by scientists and supporting staff at Lovelace Respiratory Research Institute (LRRI)/Lovelace Biomedical and Environmental Research Institute (LBERI) and the Southern Urals Biophysics Institute (SUBI). All project objectives and goals were achieved. A major focus was on obtaining improved cancer risk estimates for exposure via inhalation to plutonium (Pu) isotopes in the workplace (DOE radiation workers) and environment (public exposures to Pu-contaminated soil). A major finding was that low doses and dose rates of gamma rays can significantly suppress cancer induction by alpha radiation from inhaled Pu isotopes. The suppression relates to stimulation of the body's natural defenses, including immunity against cancer cells and selective apoptosis which removes precancerous and other aberrant cells.

  8. Chemical composition of French mimosa absolute oil.

    PubMed

    Perriot, Rodolphe; Breme, Katharina; Meierhenrich, Uwe J; Carenini, Elise; Ferrando, Georges; Baldovini, Nicolas

    2010-02-10

    Since decades mimosa (Acacia dealbata) absolute oil has been used in the flavor and perfume industry. Today, it finds an application in over 80 perfumes, and its worldwide industrial production is estimated five tons per year. Here we report on the chemical composition of French mimosa absolute oil. Straight-chain analogues from C6 to C26 with different functional groups (hydrocarbons, esters, aldehydes, diethyl acetals, alcohols, and ketones) were identified in the volatile fraction. Most of them are long-chain molecules: (Z)-heptadec-8-ene, heptadecane, nonadecane, and palmitic acid are the most abundant, and constituents such as 2-phenethyl alcohol, methyl anisate, and ethyl palmitate are present in smaller amounts. The heavier constituents were mainly triterpenoids such as lupenone and lupeol, which were identified as two of the main components. (Z)-Heptadec-8-ene, lupenone, and lupeol were quantified by GC-MS in SIM mode using external standards and represents 6%, 20%, and 7.8% (w/w) of the absolute oil. Moreover, odorant compounds were extracted by SPME and analyzed by GC-sniffing leading to the perception of 57 odorant zones, of which 37 compounds were identified by their odorant description, mass spectrum, retention index, and injection of the reference compound.

  9. Update of identification and estimation of socioeconomic impacts resulting from perceived risks and changing images: An annotated bibliography

    SciTech Connect

    Nieves, L.A.; Clark, D.E.; Wernette, D.

    1991-08-01

    This annotated bibliography reviews selected literature published through August 1991 on the identification of perceived risks and methods for estimating the economic impacts of risk perception. It updates the literature review found in Argonne National Laboratory report ANL/EAIS/TM-24 (February 1990). Included in this update are (1) a literature review of the risk perception process, of the relationship between risk perception and economic impacts, of economic methods and empirical applications, and interregional market interactions and adjustments; (2) a working bibliography (that includes the documents abstracted in the 1990 report); (3) a topical index to the abstracts found in both reports; and (4) abstracts of selected articles found in this update.

  10. Estimating the Pollution Risk of Cadmium in Soil Using a Composite Soil Environmental Quality Standard

    PubMed Central

    Huang, Biao; Zhao, Yongcun

    2014-01-01

    Estimating standard-exceeding probabilities of toxic metals in soil is crucial for environmental evaluation. Because soil pH and land use types have strong effects on the bioavailability of trace metals in soil, they were taken into account by some environmental protection agencies in making composite soil environmental quality standards (SEQSs) that contain multiple metal thresholds under different pH and land use conditions. This study proposed a method for estimating the standard-exceeding probability map of soil cadmium using a composite SEQS. The spatial variability and uncertainty of soil pH and site-specific land use type were incorporated through simulated realizations by sequential Gaussian simulation. A case study was conducted using a sample data set from a 150 km2 area in Wuhan City and the composite SEQS for cadmium, recently set by the State Environmental Protection Administration of China. The method may be useful for evaluating the pollution risks of trace metals in soil with composite SEQSs. PMID:24672364

  11. Exposures from indoor spraying of chlorpyrifos pose greater health risks to children than currently estimated.

    PubMed Central

    Davis, D L; Ahmed, A K

    1998-01-01

    Recent findings of indoor exposure studies of chlorpyrifos indicate that young children are at higher risks to the semivolatile pesticide than had been previously estimated [Gurunathan et al., Environ Health Perspect 106:9-16 (1998)]. The study showed that after a single broadcast use of the pesticide by certified applicators in apartment rooms, chlorpyrifos continued to accumulate on children's toys and hard surfaces 2 weeks after spraying. Based on the findings of this and other research studies, the estimated chlorpyrifos exposure levels from indoor spraying for children are approximately 21-119 times above the current recommended reference dose of 3 microg/kg/day from all sources. A joint agreement reached between the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the registrants of chlorpyrifos-based products will phase out a number of indoor uses of the pesticide, including broadcast spraying and direct uses on pets. While crack and crevice treatment of insects (such as cockroaches and termites) by chlorpyrifos will still continue, it appears prudent to explore other insect control options, including the use of baits, traps, and insect sterilants and growth regulators. To ensure global protection, adequate dissemination of appropriate safety and regulatory information to developing regions of the world is critical, where importation and local production of chlorpyrifos-based products for indoor uses may be significant. PMID:9618343

  12. Estimating functional connectivity of wildlife habitat and its relevance to ecological risk assessment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, A.R.; Allen, C.R.; Simpson, K.A.N.

    2004-01-01

    Habitat fragmentation is a major threat to the viability of wildlife populations and the maintenance of biodiversity. Fragmentation relates to the sub-division of habitat intq disjunct patches. Usually coincident with fragmentation per se is loss of habitat, a reduction in the size of the remnant patches, and increasing distance between patches. Natural and anthropogenic processes leading to habitat fragmentation occur at many spatial scales, and their impacts on wildlife depend on the scales at which species interact with the landscape. The concept of functional connectivity captures this organism-based view of the relative ease of movement or degree of exchange between physically disjunct habitat patches. Functional connectivity of a given habitat arrangement for a given wildlife species depends on details of the organism's life history and behavioral ecology, but, for broad categories of species, quantities such as home range size and dispersal distance scale allometrically with body mass. These relationships can be incorporated into spatial analyses of functional connectivity, which can be quantified by indices or displayed graphically in maps. We review indices and GIS-based approaches to estimating functional connectivity, presenting examples from the literature and our own work on mammalian distributions. Such analyses can be readily incorporated within an ecological risk framework. Estimates of functional connectivity may be useful in a screening-level assessment of the impact of habitat fragmentation relative to other stressors, and may be crucial in detailed population modeling and viability analysis.

  13. Estimating the Influence of Oil and Gas Emissions on Urban Ozone and Associated Health Risks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Capps, S.; Nsanzineza, R.; Turner, M. D.; Henze, D. K.; Zhao, S.; Russell, M. G.; Hakami, A.; Milford, J. B.

    2015-12-01

    Tropospheric ozone (O3) degrades air quality, impacting human health and public welfare. The National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) is designed to limit these impacts, but certain areas in the continental U.S. exceed this standard. Mitigating O3 NAAQS exceedances by designing emissions controls can be complicated in urban areas because of the long-range transport of ozone and its gaseous precursors as well as the complex mix of local emissions sources. Recent growth of unconventional oil and gas development near urban areas in Colorado, Texas, and the northeastern corridor has exacerbated this problem. To estimate the contribution of emissions from oil and gas development to urban O3 issues, we apply the CMAQ adjoint, which efficiently elucidates the relative influence of emissions sources on select concentration-based metrics. Specifically, the adjoint is used to calculate the spatially-specific relative contributions of emissions of oxides of nitrogen (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) throughout the continental U.S. to O3 NAAQS exceedances and to ozone-related health risks in select urban areas. By evaluating these influences for different urban areas, including one in California that has been managing air quality with adjacent oil and gas development for a longer period of time, we are able to compare and contrast the emissions control strategies that may be more effective in particular regions. Additionally, the resulting relationships between emissions and concentrations provide a way to project ozone impacts when measurements provide refined estimates of emissions from this sector.

  14. Value-at-risk estimation with wavelet-based extreme value theory: Evidence from emerging markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cifter, Atilla

    2011-06-01

    This paper introduces wavelet-based extreme value theory (EVT) for univariate value-at-risk estimation. Wavelets and EVT are combined for volatility forecasting to estimate a hybrid model. In the first stage, wavelets are used as a threshold in generalized Pareto distribution, and in the second stage, EVT is applied with a wavelet-based threshold. This new model is applied to two major emerging stock markets: the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) and the Budapest Stock Exchange (BUX). The relative performance of wavelet-based EVT is benchmarked against the Riskmetrics-EWMA, ARMA-GARCH, generalized Pareto distribution, and conditional generalized Pareto distribution models. The empirical results show that the wavelet-based extreme value theory increases predictive performance of financial forecasting according to number of violations and tail-loss tests. The superior forecasting performance of the wavelet-based EVT model is also consistent with Basel II requirements, and this new model can be used by financial institutions as well.

  15. Estimating the pollution risk of cadmium in soil using a composite soil environmental quality standard.

    PubMed

    Qu, Mingkai; Li, Weidong; Zhang, Chuanrong; Huang, Biao; Zhao, Yongcun

    2014-01-01

    Estimating standard-exceeding probabilities of toxic metals in soil is crucial for environmental evaluation. Because soil pH and land use types have strong effects on the bioavailability of trace metals in soil, they were taken into account by some environmental protection agencies in making composite soil environmental quality standards (SEQSs) that contain multiple metal thresholds under different pH and land use conditions. This study proposed a method for estimating the standard-exceeding probability map of soil cadmium using a composite SEQS. The spatial variability and uncertainty of soil pH and site-specific land use type were incorporated through simulated realizations by sequential Gaussian simulation. A case study was conducted using a sample data set from a 150 km(2) area in Wuhan City and the composite SEQS for cadmium, recently set by the State Environmental Protection Administration of China. The method may be useful for evaluating the pollution risks of trace metals in soil with composite SEQSs.

  16. Classification of Kidney Transplant Recipients Using a Combination of Estimated GFR and Albuminuria Reflects Risk

    PubMed Central

    White, Christine A.; Akbari, Ayub; Talreja, Hari; Lalani, Neha; Knoll, Greg A.

    2016-01-01

    Background The 2012 Kidney Dialysis Initiative Global Outcomes chronic kidney disease (CKD) classification scheme subdivides stage 3 CKD and incorporates the urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR). The aim of this study was to evaluate whether the novel scheme provides graded risk in kidney transplant recipients (KTRs). Methods Prevalent KTRs with available laboratory data were included. The primary outcome was a composite of doubling of serum creatinine, graft failure, or death. Patients were stratified using the CKD-Epidemiolgic Collaboration equation, and ACR and the event rate per 1000 patient-years in each CKD category were calculated. Results There were 269 KTRs with a mean follow-up of 4.5 ± 2.0 years. There was a graded increase in outcomes with increasing ACR and decreasing estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). For the primary outcome, the event rate was 15.3 (95% confidence interval, 4.2-39.2) per 1000 patient-years for those with an eGFR greater than 60 mL/min per 1.73 m2 and an ACR less than 30 mg/g, whereas it was 375 (95% confidence interval, 193.8-655.1) for those with an eGFR less than 30 mL/min per 1.73 m2 and an ACR greater than 300 mg/g. Conclusions The novel Kidney Dialysis Initiative Global Outcomes classification scheme provides graded risk for important clinical events in KTRs. This information can be used to identify high-risk patients and to tailor follow-up and management strategies aimed at improving outcomes. PMID:27819037

  17. Exposure Estimation for Risk Assessment of the Phthalate Incident in Taiwan

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Chu-Chih; Wang, Shu-Li; Wu, Ming-Tsang; Wang, Yin-Han; Huang, Po-Chin; Chen, Bai-Hsiun; Sun, Chien-Wen; Ho, Chi-Kung; Shih, Yang-Chih; Shiu, Ming-Neng; Pan, Wen-Harn; Chen, Mei-Lien; Lee, Ching-Chang; Hsiung, Chao A.

    2016-01-01

    Background In May 2011, di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalates (DEHP) and, to a lesser extent, di-iso-nonyl phthalate (DiNP) were found to have been illegally used for many years in Taiwan as clouding agents in foods including sports drinks, juice beverages, tea drinks, fruit jam/nectar/jelly, and health or nutrient supplements. Objective To estimate the DEHP exposure for the study participants for the follow-up epidemiological study and health risk assessment. Methods A total of 347 individuals possibly highly exposed to phthalate-tainted foods participated in the study. Exposure assessment was performed based on the participants' responses to a structured questionnaire, self-report of exposure history, urinary metabolite concentrations, and DEHP concentration information in 2449 food records. A Bayesian statistical approach using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation was employed to deal with the uncertainties in the DEHP concentrations of the contaminated foods and the participants' likelihood of being exposed. Results An estimated 37% and 15% of children younger than 12 years old were exposed to DEHP at medium (20–50 μg / kg_bw / day) and high AvDIs (50–100 μg / kg_bw / day), respectively, prior to the episode (9% and 3% in adults, respectively). Moreover, 11% of children and 1% of adults were highly exposed (> 100 μg / kg_bw / day), with a maximum of 414.1 μg / kg_bw / day and 126.4 μg / kg_bw / day, respectively. Conclusions The phthalate exposure-associated adverse health effects for these participants warrant further investigation. The estimation procedure may be applied to other exposure assessment with various sources of uncertainties. PMID:26960145

  18. Demonstration of the Effect of Generic Anatomical Divisions versus Clinical Protocols on Computed Tomography Dose Estimates and Risk Burden

    PubMed Central

    Moorin, Rachael E.; Gibson, David A. J.; Forsyth, Rene K.; Fox, Richard

    2014-01-01

    Objective Choosing to undertake a CT scan relies on balancing risk versus benefit, however risks associated with CT scanning have generally been limited to broad anatomical locations, which do not provided adequate information to evaluate risk against benefit. Our study aimed to determine differences in radiation dose and risk estimates associated with modern CT scanning examinations when computed for clinical protocols compared with those using anatomical area. Methods Technical data were extracted from a tertiary hospital Picture Archiving Communication System for random samples of 20–40 CT examinations per adult clinical CT protocol. Organ and whole body radiation dose were calculated using ImPACT Monte Carlo simulation software and cancer incidence and mortality estimated using BEIR VII age and gender specific lifetime attributable risk weights. Results Thirty four unique CT protocols were identified by our study. When grouped according to anatomic area the radiation dose varied substantially, particularly for abdominal protocols. The total estimated number of incident cancers and cancer related deaths using the mean dose of anatomical area were 86 and 69 respectively. Using more specific protocol doses the estimates rose to 214 and 138 incident cancers and cancer related deaths, at least doubling the burden estimated. Conclusions Modern CT scanning produces a greater diversity of effective doses than much of the literature describes; where a lack of focus on actual scanning protocols has produced estimates that do not reflect the range and complexity of modern CT practice. To allow clinicians, patients and policy makers to make informed risk versus benefit decisions the individual and population level risks associated with modern CT practices are essential. PMID:24878841

  19. Database applicaton for absolute spectrophotometry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bochkov, Valery V.; Shumko, Sergiy

    2002-12-01

    32-bit database application with multidocument interface for Windows has been developed to calculate absolute energy distributions of observed spectra. The original database contains wavelength calibrated observed spectra which had been already passed through apparatus reductions such as flatfielding, background and apparatus noise subtracting. Absolute energy distributions of observed spectra are defined in unique scale by means of registering them simultaneously with artificial intensity standard. Observations of sequence of spectrophotometric standards are used to define absolute energy of the artificial standard. Observations of spectrophotometric standards are used to define optical extinction in selected moments. FFT algorithm implemented in the application allows performing convolution (deconvolution) spectra with user-defined PSF. The object-oriented interface has been created using facilities of C++ libraries. Client/server model with Windows Socket functionality based on TCP/IP protocol is used to develop the application. It supports Dynamic Data Exchange conversation in server mode and uses Microsoft Exchange communication facilities.

  20. Estimating the lifetime risk of dementia in the Canadian elderly population using cross-sectional cohort survival data

    PubMed Central

    Carone, Marco; Asgharian, Masoud; Jewell, Nicholas P.

    2014-01-01

    Dementia is one of the world’s major public health challenges. The lifetime risk of dementia is the proportion of individuals who ever develop dementia during their lifetime. Despite its importance to epidemiologists and policy-makers, this measure does not seem to have been estimated in the Canadian population. Data from a birth cohort study of dementia are not available. Instead, we must rely on data from the Canadian Study of Heath and Aging, a large cross-sectional study of dementia with follow-up for survival. These data present challenges because they include substantial loss to follow-up and are not representatively drawn from the target population because of structural sampling biases. A first bias is imparted by the cross-sectional sampling scheme, while a second bias is a result of stratified sampling. Estimation of the lifetime risk and related quantities in the presence of these biases has not been previously addressed in the literature. We develop and study nonparametric estimators of the lifetime risk, the remaining lifetime risk and cumulative risk at specific ages, accounting for these complexities. In particular, we reveal the fact that estimation of the lifetime risk is invariant to stratification by current age at sampling. We present simulation results validating our methodology, and provide novel facts about the epidemiology of dementia in Canada using data from the Canadian Study of Health and Aging. PMID:26139951

  1. Risks of circulatory diseases among Mayak PA workers with radiation doses estimated using the improved Mayak Worker Dosimetry System 2008.

    PubMed

    Moseeva, Maria B; Azizova, Tamara V; Grigoryeva, Evgenia S; Haylock, Richard

    2014-05-01

    The new Mayak Worker Dosimetry System 2008 (MWDS-2008) was published in 2013 and supersedes the Doses-2005 dosimetry system for Mayak Production Association (PA) workers. It provides revised external and internal dose estimates based on the updated occupational history data. Using MWDS-2008, a cohort of 18,856 workers first employed at one of the main Mayak PA plants during 1948-1972 and followed up to 2005 was identified. Incidence and mortality risks from ischemic heart disease (IHD) (International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-9 codes 410-414) and from cerebrovascular diseases (CVD) (ICD-9 codes 430-438) were examined in this cohort and compared with previously published risk estimates in the same cohort based on the Doses-2005 dosimetry system. Significant associations were observed between doses from external gamma-rays and IHD and CVD incidence and also between internal doses from alpha-radiation and IHD mortality and CVD incidence. The estimates of excess relative risk (ERR)/Gy were consistent with those estimates from the previous studies based on Doses-2005 system apart from the relationship between CVD incidence and internal liver dose where the ERR/Gy based on MWDS-2008 was just over three times higher than the corresponding estimate based on Doses-2005 system. Adjustment for smoking status did not show any effect on the estimates of risk from internal alpha-particle exposure.

  2. Estimation of effective dose and lifetime attributable risk from multiple head CT scans in ventriculoperitoneal shunted children

    PubMed Central

    Aw-Zoretic, J.; Seth, D.; Katzman, G.; Sammet, S.

    2015-01-01

    Purpose The purpose of this review is to determine the averaged effective dose and lifetime attributable risk factor from multiple head computed tomography (CT) dose data on children with ventriculoperitoneal shunts (VPS). Method and materials A total of 422 paediatric head CT exams were found between October 2008 and January 2011 and retrospectively reviewed. The CT dose data was weighted with the latest IRCP 103 conversion factor to obtain the effective dose per study and the averaged effective dose was calculated. Estimates of the lifetime attributable risk were also calculated from the averaged effective dose using a conversion factor from the latest BEIR VII report. Results Our study found the highest effective doses in neonates and the lowest effective doses were observed in the 10–18 years age group. We estimated a 0.007% potential increase risk in neonates and 0.001% potential increased risk in teenagers over the base risk. Conclusion Multiple head CTs in children equates to a slight potential increase risk in lifetime attributable risk over the baseline risk for cancer, slightly higher in neonates relative to teenagers. The potential risks versus clinical benefit must be assessed. PMID:25130177

  3. Absolute classification with unsupervised clustering

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jeon, Byeungwoo; Landgrebe, D. A.

    1992-01-01

    An absolute classification algorithm is proposed in which the class definition through training samples or otherwise is required only for a particular class of interest. The absolute classification is considered as a problem of unsupervised clustering when one cluster is known initially. The definitions and statistics of the other classes are automatically developed through the weighted unsupervised clustering procedure, which is developed to keep the cluster corresponding to the class of interest from losing its identity as the class of interest. Once all the classes are developed, a conventional relative classifier such as the maximum-likelihood classifier is used in the classification.

  4. Development of a prediction model and estimation of cumulative risk for upper aerodigestive tract cancer on the basis of the aldehyde dehydrogenase 2 genotype and alcohol consumption in a Japanese population

    PubMed Central

    Koyanagi, Yuriko N.; Ito, Hidemi; Oze, Isao; Hosono, Satoyo; Tanaka, Hideo; Abe, Tetsuya; Shimizu, Yasuhiro; Hasegawa, Yasuhisa

    2017-01-01

    Alcohol consumption and the aldehyde dehydrogenase 2 (ALDH2) polymorphism are associated with the risk of upper aerodigestive tract cancer, and a significant gene–environment interaction between the two has been confirmed in a Japanese population. To aid the development of a personalized prevention strategy, we developed a risk-prediction model and estimated absolute risks stratified by a combination of the ALDH2 genotype and alcohol consumption. We carried out two age-matched and sex-matched case–control studies: one (630 cases and 1260 controls) for model derivation and the second (654 cases and 654 controls) for external validation. On the basis of data from the derivation study, a prediction model was developed by fitting a conditional logistic regression model using the following predictors: age, sex, smoking, drinking, and the ALDH2 genotype. The risk model, including a combination of the ALDH2 genotype and alcohol consumption, provided high discriminatory accuracy and good calibration in both the derivation and the validation studies: C statistics were 0.82 (95% confidence interval 0.80–0.84) and 0.83 (95% confidence interval 0.81–0.85), respectively, and the calibration plots of both studies remained close to the ideal calibration line. Cumulative risks were obtained by combining odds ratios estimated from the risk model with the age-specific incidence rate and population size. For heavy drinkers with a heterozygous genotype, the cumulative risk at age 80 was above 20%. In contrast, risk in the other groups was less than 5%. In conclusion, modification of alcohol consumption according to the ALDH2 genotype will have a major impact on upper aerodigestive tract cancer prevention. These findings represent a simple and practical model for personalized cancer prevention. PMID:26862830

  5. Apples to apples: the origin and magnitude of differences in asbestos cancer risk estimates derived using varying protocols.

    PubMed

    Berman, D Wayne

    2011-08-01

    Given that new protocols for assessing asbestos-related cancer risk have recently been published, questions arise concerning how they compare to the "IRIS" protocol currently used by regulators. The newest protocols incorporate findings from 20 additional years of literature. Thus, differences between the IRIS and newer Berman and Crump protocols are examined to evaluate whether these protocols can be reconciled. Risks estimated by applying these protocols to real exposure data from both laboratory and field studies are also compared to assess the relative health protectiveness of each protocol. The reliability of risks estimated using the two protocols are compared by evaluating the degree with which each potentially reproduces the known epidemiology study risks. Results indicate that the IRIS and Berman and Crump protocols can be reconciled; while environment-specific variation within fiber type is apparently due primarily to size effects (not addressed by IRIS), the 10-fold (average) difference between amphibole asbestos risks estimated using each protocol is attributable to an arbitrary selection of the lowest of available mesothelioma potency factors in the IRIS protocol. Thus, the IRIS protocol may substantially underestimate risk when exposure is primarily to amphibole asbestos. Moreover, while the Berman and Crump protocol is more reliable than the IRIS protocol overall (especially for predicting amphibole risk), evidence is presented suggesting a new fiber-size-related adjustment to the Berman and Crump protocol may ultimately succeed in reconciling the entire epidemiology database. However, additional data need to be developed before the performance of the adjusted protocol can be fully validated.

  6. Use of microbial risk assessment to inform the national estimate of acute gastrointestinal illness attributable to microbes in drinking water.

    PubMed

    Soller, Jeffrey A

    2006-01-01

    Microbial risk assessment (MRA) evaluates the likelihood of adverse human health effects that occur following exposure to pathogenic microorganisms. This paper focuses on the potential use of MRA to provide insight to the national estimate of acute gastrointestinal illness (AGI) in the United States among persons served by public water systems. This article defines MRA, describes how MRA is implemented, provides an overview of the field of MRA and discusses how MRA may be useful for characterizing the national estimate. Communities served by drinking water systems with relatively contaminated source waters, sub-standard treatment facilities, and/or contamination problems in their distribution systems are subject to higher risks than communities where such issues are less of a concern. Further, the risk of illness attributable to pathogens in drinking water in each community can be thought of as the sum of the risk from the treated drinking water and the risk from the distribution system. Pathogen-specific MRAS could be developed to characterize the risk associated with each of these components; however, these assessments are likely to under-estimate the total risk from all pathogens attributable to drinking water. Potential methods for developing such MRAs are discussed along with their associated limitations.

  7. Radon exposure of the skin: II. Estimation of the attributable risk for skin cancer incidence.

    PubMed

    Charles, M W

    2007-09-01

    A preceding companion paper has reviewed the various factors which form the chain of assumptions that are necessary to support a suggested link between radon exposure and skin cancer in man. Overall, the balance of evidence was considered to be against a causal link between radon exposure and skin cancer. One factor against causality is evidence, particularly from animal studies, that some exposure of the hair follicles and/or the deeper dermis, as well as the inter-follicular epidermis, is required-beyond the range of naturally occurring alpha particles. On this basis any skin cancer risk due to radon progeny would be due only to beta and gamma components of equivalent dose, which are 10-100 times less than the alpha equivalent dose to the basal layer. Notwithstanding this conclusion against causality, calculations have been carried out of attributable risk (ATR, the proportion of cases occurring in the total population which can be explained by radon exposure) on the conservative basis that the target cells are, as is often assumed, in the basal layer of the epidermis. An excess relative risk figure is used which is based on variance weighting of the data sources. This is 2.5 times lower than the value generally used. A latent period of 20 years and an RBE of 10 are considered more justifiable than the often used values of 10 years and 20 respectively. These assumptions lead to an ATR of approximately 0.7% (0.5-5%) at the nominal UK indoor radon level of 20 Bq m(-3). The range reflects uncertainties in plate-out. Previous higher estimates by various authors have made more pessimistic assumptions. There are some indications that radon progeny plate-out may be elevated out of doors, particularly due to rainfall. Although average UK outdoor radon levels ( approximately 4 Bq m(-3)) are much less than average indoor levels, and outdoor residence time is on average about 10%, this might have the effect of increasing the ATR several-fold. This needs considerable further

  8. Ionizing radiation and genetic risks. XIII. Summary and synthesis of papers VI to XII and estimates of genetic risks in the year 2000.

    PubMed

    Sankaranarayanan, K; Chakraborty, R

    2000-10-16

    This paper recapitulates the advances in the field of genetic risk estimation that have occurred during the past decade and using them as a basis, presents revised estimates of genetic risks of exposure to radiation. The advances include: (i) an upward revision of the estimates of incidence for Mendelian diseases (2.4% now versus 1.25% in 1993); (ii) the introduction of a conceptual change for calculating doubling doses; (iii) the elaboration of methods to estimate the mutation component (i.e. the relative increase in disease frequency per unit relative increase in mutation rate) and the use of the estimates obtained through these methods for assessing the impact of induced mutations on the incidence of Mendelian and chronic multifactorial diseases; (iv) the introduction of an additional factor called the "potential recoverability correction factor" in the risk equation to bridge the gap between radiation-induced mutations that have been recovered in mice and the risk of radiation-inducible genetic disease in human live births and (v) the introduction of the concept that the adverse effects of radiation-induced genetic damage are likely to be manifest predominantly as multi-system developmental abnormalities in the progeny. For all classes of genetic disease (except congenital abnormalities), the estimates of risk have been obtained using a doubling dose of 1 Gy. For a population exposed to low LET, chronic/ low dose irradiation, the current estimates for the first generation progeny are the following (all estimates per million live born progeny per Gy of parental irradiation): autosomal dominant and X-linked diseases, approximately 750-1500 cases; autosomal recessive, nearly zero and chronic multifactorial diseases, approximately 250-1200 cases. For congenital abnormalities, the estimate is approximately 2000 cases and is based on mouse data on developmental abnormalities. The total risk per Gy is of the order of approximately 3000-4700 cases which represent

  9. Cancer risk estimation in Belarussian children due to thyroid irradiation as a consequence of the Chernobyl nuclear accident

    SciTech Connect

    Buglova, E.; Kenigsberg, J.E.; Sergeeva, N.V.

    1996-07-01

    The thyroid doses received by the juvenile population of Belarus following the Chernobyl accident ranged up to about 10 Gy. The thyroid cancer risk estimate recommended in NCRP Report No. 80 was used to predict the number of thyroid cancer cases among children during 1990-1992 in selected Belarussian regions and cities. The results obtained using this risk estimate show an excess of thyroid cancer cases being registered vs. the predicted cases. Thyroid cancer incidence rate among boys under investigation is higher than among girls in the postaccident period. The excess of the observed over the expected incidence in the general juvenile population is caused by the high thyroid cancer incidence rate among boys. These results, which can be considered part of the first stage of a thorough thyroid cancer risk estimation after the Chernobyl accident, demonstrate the critical need to complete these studies in depth. 6 refs., 5 figs., 3 tabs.

  10. Using speeding detections and numbers of fatalities to estimate relative risk of a fatality for motorcyclists and car drivers.

    PubMed

    Huggins, Richard

    2013-10-01

    Precise estimation of the relative risk of motorcyclists being involved in a fatal accident compared to car drivers is difficult. Simple estimates based on the proportions of licenced drivers or riders that are killed in a fatal accident are biased as they do not take into account the exposure to risk. However, exposure is difficult to quantify. Here we adapt the ideas behind the well known induced exposure methods and use available summary data on speeding detections and fatalities for motorcycle riders and car drivers to estimate the relative risk of a fatality for motorcyclists compared to car drivers under mild assumptions. The method is applied to data on motorcycle riders and car drivers in Victoria, Australia in 2010 and a small simulation study is conducted.

  11. Chronic beryllium disease and cancer risk estimates with uncertainty for beryllium released to the air from the Rocky Flats Plant.

    PubMed Central

    McGavran, P D; Rood, A S; Till, J E

    1999-01-01

    Beryllium was released into the air from routine operations and three accidental fires at the Rocky Flats Plant (RFP) in Colorado from 1958 to 1989. We evaluated environmental monitoring data and developed estimates of airborne concentrations and their uncertainties and calculated lifetime cancer risks and risks of chronic beryllium disease to hypothetical receptors. This article discusses exposure-response relationships for lung cancer and chronic beryllium disease. We assigned a distribution to cancer slope factor values based on the relative risk estimates from an occupational epidemiologic study used by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to determine the slope factors. We used the regional atmospheric transport code for Hanford emission tracking atmospheric transport model for exposure calculations because it is particularly well suited for long-term annual-average dispersion estimates and it incorporates spatially varying meteorologic and environmental parameters. We accounted for model prediction uncertainty by using several multiplicative stochastic correction factors that accounted for uncertainty in the dispersion estimate, the meteorology, deposition, and plume depletion. We used Monte Carlo techniques to propagate model prediction uncertainty through to the final risk calculations. We developed nine exposure scenarios of hypothetical but typical residents of the RFP area to consider the lifestyle, time spent outdoors, location, age, and sex of people who may have been exposed. We determined geometric mean incremental lifetime cancer incidence risk estimates for beryllium inhalation for each scenario. The risk estimates were < 10(-6). Predicted air concentrations were well below the current reference concentration derived by the EPA for beryllium sensitization. Images Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Figure 5 Figure 6 PMID:10464074

  12. Are environmental risk estimations linked to the actual environmental impact? Application to an oil handling facility (NE Spain).

    PubMed

    Valdor, Paloma F; Puente, Araceli; Gómez, Aina G; Ondiviela, Bárbara; Juanes, José A

    2017-01-30

    The environmental risk analysis of aquatic systems includes the evaluation of the likelihood that adverse ecological effects may occur as a result of exposure to one or more stressors. In harbor areas, pollution is provided by a complex mixture of substances with different levels of toxicity, persistence and bioaccumulation, which complicates the hazards characterization and their multiple effects. A study of the relationship between the environmental impact and the environmental risk assessment at a specific isolated oil handling facility was undertaken. The environmental risk of the oil handling facility, considering the consequences of specific pollutants, was estimated and the associated environmental impact was quantified based on a 'weights of evidence' approach. The contamination quantified at the potentially affected area around the monobuoy of Tarragona has proved to be related with environmental risk estimations but the lines of evidence obtained do not allow us to assert that the activity developed at this facility has an associated environmental impact.

  13. Relativistic Absolutism in Moral Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vogt, W. Paul

    1982-01-01

    Discusses Emile Durkheim's "Moral Education: A Study in the Theory and Application of the Sociology of Education," which holds that morally healthy societies may vary in culture and organization but must possess absolute rules of moral behavior. Compares this moral theory with current theory and practice of American educators. (MJL)

  14. Absolute Standards for Climate Measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leckey, J.

    2016-10-01

    In a world of changing climate, political uncertainty, and ever-changing budgets, the benefit of measurements traceable to SI standards increases by the day. To truly resolve climate change trends on a decadal time scale, on-orbit measurements need to be referenced to something that is both absolute and unchanging. One such mission is the Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) that will measure a variety of climate variables with an unprecedented accuracy to definitively quantify climate change. In the CLARREO mission, we will utilize phase change cells in which a material is melted to calibrate the temperature of a blackbody that can then be observed by a spectrometer. A material's melting point is an unchanging physical constant that, through a series of transfers, can ultimately calibrate a spectrometer on an absolute scale. CLARREO consists of two primary instruments: an infrared (IR) spectrometer and a reflected solar (RS) spectrometer. The mission will contain orbiting radiometers with sufficient accuracy to calibrate other space-based instrumentation and thus transferring the absolute traceability. The status of various mission options will be presented.

  15. Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting in the United States: Updated Estimates of Women and Girls at Risk, 2012

    PubMed Central

    Stupp, Paul; Okoroh, Ekwutosi; Besera, Ghenet; Goodman, David; Danel, Isabella

    2016-01-01

    Objectives In 1996, the U.S. Congress passed legislation making female genital mutilation/cutting (FGM/C) illegal in the United States. CDC published the first estimates of the number of women and girls at risk for FGM/C in 1997. Since 2012, various constituencies have again raised concerns about the practice in the United States. We updated an earlier estimate of the number of women and girls in the United States who were at risk for FGM/C or its consequences. Methods We estimated the number of women and girls who were at risk for undergoing FGM/C or its consequences in 2012 by applying country-specific prevalence of FGM/C to the estimated number of women and girls living in the United States who were born in that country or who lived with a parent born in that country. Results Approximately 513,000 women and girls in the United States were at risk for FGM/C or its consequences in 2012, which was more than three times higher than the earlier estimate, based on 1990 data. The increase in the number of women and girls younger than 18 years of age at risk for FGM/C was more than four times that of previous estimates. Conclusion The estimated increase was wholly a result of rapid growth in the number of immigrants from FGM/C-practicing countries living in the United States and not from increases in FGM/C prevalence in those countries. Scientifically valid information regarding whether women or their daughters have actually undergone FGM/C and related information that can contribute to efforts to prevent the practice in the United States and provide needed health services to women who have undergone FGM/C are needed. PMID:26957669

  16. Comparison of TTP and Tmax estimation techniques in perfusion-weighted MR datasets for tissue-at-risk definition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Forkert, Nils Daniel; Kaesemann, Philipp; Fiehler, Jens; Thomalla, Götz

    2012-03-01

    Acute stroke is a major cause for death and disability among adults in the western hemisphere. Time-resolved perfusion-weighted (PWI) and diffusion-weighted (DWI) MR datasets are typically used for the estimation of tissue-at-risk, which is an important variable for acute stroke therapy decision-making. Although several parameters, which can be estimated based on PWI concentration curves, have been proposed for tissue-at-risk definition in the past, the time-to-peak (TTP) or time-to-max (Tmax) parameter is used most frequently in recent trials. Unfortunately, there is no clear consensus which method should be used for estimation of Tmax or TTP maps. Consequently, tissue-at-risk estimations and following treatment decision might vary considerably with the method used. In this work, 5 PWI datasets of acute stroke patients were used to calculate TTP or Tmax maps using 10 different estimation techniques. The resulting maps were segmented using a typical threshold of +4s and the corresponding PWI-lesions were calculated. The first results suggest that the TTP or Tmax method used has a major impact on the resulting tissue-at-risk volume. Numerically, the calculated volumes differed up to a factor of 3. In general, the deconvolution-based Tmax techniques estimate the ischemic penumbra rather smaller compared to direct TTP based techniques. In conclusion, the comparison of different methods for TTP or Tmax estimation revealed high variations regarding the resulting tissue-at-risk volume, which might lead to different therapy decisions. Therefore, a consensus how TTP or Tmax maps should be calculated seems necessary.

  17. Estimated risk of lung cancer from exposure to radon decay products in U.S. homes: A brief review

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nero, Anthony V.

    Recent analyses now permit direct estimation of the risks of lung cancer from radon decay products in U.S. homes. Analysis of data from indoor monitoring in single-family homes yields a tentative frequency distribution of annual-average 222Rn concentrations with an arithmetic mean of 55 Bq m -3 and approximately 2% of homes having 300 Bq m -3 or more. Application of the results of occupational epidemiological studies to indoor exposures, either directly or using recent advances in lung dosimetry, suggests that the average indoor concentration entails a lifetime risk of lung cancer of about 0.4%, contributing about 10% of the total risk of lung cancer. The risk to individuals occupying the homes with 300 Bq m -3 or more for their lifetimes is estimated to exceed 2%, with risks from the homes with thousands of Bq m -3 correspondingly higher, even exceeding the total risk of premature death due to cigarette smoking. Such average and high-level risks greatly exceed ordinarily-considered environmental risks, forcing development of a new perspective on environmental exposures.

  18. IT-OSRA: applying ensemble simulations to estimate the oil spill risk associated to operational and accidental oil spills

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sepp Neves, Antonio Augusto; Pinardi, Nadia; Martins, Flavio

    2016-08-01

    Oil Spill Risk Assessments (OSRAs) are widely employed to support decision making regarding oil spill risks. This article adapts the ISO-compliant OSRA framework developed by Sepp Neves et al. (J Environ Manag 159:158-168, 2015) to estimate risks in a complex scenario where uncertainties related to the meteo-oceanographic conditions, where and how a spill could happen exist and the risk computation methodology is not yet well established (ensemble oil spill modeling). The improved method was applied to the Algarve coast, Portugal. Over 50,000 simulations were performed in 2 ensemble experiments to estimate the risks due to operational and accidental spill scenarios associated with maritime traffic. The level of risk was found to be important for both types of scenarios, with significant seasonal variations due to the the currents and waves variability. Higher frequency variability in the meteo-oceanographic variables were also found to contribute to the level of risk. The ensemble results show that the distribution of oil concentrations found on the coast is not Gaussian, opening up new fields of research on how to deal with oil spill risks and related uncertainties.

  19. Methodological extensions of meta-analysis with excess relative risk estimates: application to risk of second malignant neoplasms among childhood cancer survivors treated with radiotherapy.

    PubMed

    Doi, Kazutaka; Mieno, Makiko N; Shimada, Yoshiya; Yonehara, Hidenori; Yoshinaga, Shinji

    2014-09-01

    Although radiotherapy is recognized as an established risk factor for second malignant neoplasms (SMNs), the dose response of SMNs following radiotherapy has not been well characterized. In our previous meta-analysis of the risks of SMNs occurring among children who have received radiotherapy, the small number of eligible studies precluded a detailed evaluation. Therefore, to increase the number of eligible studies, we developed a method of calculating excess relative risk (ERR) per Gy estimates from studies for which the relative risk estimates for several dose categories were available. Comparing the calculated ERR with that described in several original papers validated the proposed method. This enabled us to increase the number of studies, which we used to conduct a meta-analysis. The overall ERR per Gy estimate of radiotherapy over 26 relevant studies was 0.60 (95%CI: 0.30-1.20), which is smaller than the corresponding estimate for atomic bomb survivors exposed to radiation as young children (1.7; 95% CI: 1.1-2.5). A significant decrease in ERR per Gy with increase in age at exposure (0.85 times per annual increase) was observed in the meta-regression. Heterogeneity was suggested by Cochran's Q statistic (P < 0.001), which may be partly accounted for by age at exposure.

  20. Methodological extensions of meta-analysis with excess relative risk estimates: application to risk of second malignant neoplasms among childhood cancer survivors treated with radiotherapy

    PubMed Central

    Doi, Kazutaka; Mieno, Makiko N.; Shimada, Yoshiya; Yonehara, Hidenori; Yoshinaga, Shinji

    2014-01-01

    Although radiotherapy is recognized as an established risk factor for second malignant neoplasms (SMNs), the dose response of SMNs following radiotherapy has not been well characterized. In our previous meta-analysis of the risks of SMNs occurring among children who have received radiotherapy, the small number of eligible studies precluded a detailed evaluation. Therefore, to increase the number of eligible studies, we developed a method of calculating excess relative risk (ERR) per Gy estimates from studies for which the relative risk estimates for several dose categories were available. Comparing the calculated ERR with that described in several original papers validated the proposed method. This enabled us to increase the number of studies, which we used to conduct a meta-analysis. The overall ERR per Gy estimate of radiotherapy over 26 relevant studies was 0.60 (95%CI: 0.30–1.20), which is smaller than the corresponding estimate for atomic bomb survivors exposed to radiation as young children (1.7; 95% CI: 1.1–2.5). A significant decrease in ERR per Gy with increase in age at exposure (0.85 times per annual increase) was observed in the meta-regression. Heterogeneity was suggested by Cochran's Q statistic (P < 0.001), which may be partly accounted for by age at exposure. PMID:25037101

  1. Estimating the Tradeoff Between Risk Protection and Moral Hazard with a Nonlinear Budget Set Model of Health Insurance*

    PubMed Central

    Kowalski, Amanda E.

    2015-01-01

    Insurance induces a tradeoff between the welfare gains from risk protection and the welfare losses from moral hazard. Empirical work traditionally estimates each side of the tradeoff separately, potentially yielding mutually inconsistent results. I develop a nonlinear budget set model of health insurance that allows for both simultaneously. Nonlinearities in the budget set arise from deductibles, coinsurance rates, and stoplosses that alter moral hazard as well as risk protection. I illustrate the properties of my model by estimating it using data on employer sponsored health insurance from a large firm. PMID:26664035

  2. Improved seismic risk estimation for Bucharest, based on multiple hazard scenarios, analytical methods and new techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Toma-Danila, Dragos; Florinela Manea, Elena; Ortanza Cioflan, Carmen

    2014-05-01

    Bucharest, capital of Romania (with 1678000 inhabitants in 2011), is one of the most exposed big cities in Europe to seismic damage. The major earthquakes affecting the city have their origin in the Vrancea region. The Vrancea intermediate-depth source generates, statistically, 2-3 shocks with moment magnitude >7.0 per century. Although the focal distance is greater than 170 km, the historical records (from the 1838, 1894, 1908, 1940 and 1977 events) reveal severe effects in the Bucharest area, e.g. intensities IX (MSK) for the case of 1940 event. During the 1977 earthquake, 1420 people were killed and 33 large buildings collapsed. The nowadays building stock is vulnerable both due to construction (material, age) and soil conditions (high amplification, generated within the weak consolidated Quaternary deposits, their thickness is varying 250-500m throughout the city). A number of 373 old buildings, out of 2563, evaluated by experts are more likely to experience severe damage/collapse in the next major earthquake. The total number of residential buildings, in 2011, was 113900. In order to guide the mitigation measures, different studies tried to estimate the seismic risk of Bucharest, in terms of buildings, population or economic damage probability. Unfortunately, most of them were based on incomplete sets of data, whether regarding the hazard or the building stock in detail. However, during the DACEA Project, the National Institute for Earth Physics, together with the Technical University of Civil Engineering Bucharest and NORSAR Institute managed to compile a database for buildings in southern Romania (according to the 1999 census), with 48 associated capacity and fragility curves. Until now, the developed real-time estimation system was not implemented for Bucharest. This paper presents more than an adaptation of this system to Bucharest; first, we analyze the previous seismic risk studies, from a SWOT perspective. This reveals that most of the studies don't use

  3. Estimation of the health risks associated with polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) concentrations found onboard older U.S. Navy vessels.

    PubMed

    Still, K R; Arfsten, D P; Jederberg, W W; Kane, L V; Larcom, B J

    2003-10-01

    PCBs have been identified on surfaces and in component materials and equipment from inactive U.S. Navy nuclear submarines commissioned prior to 1970. Health risks associated with PCBs present onboard submarines were estimated for hypothetical crew members and shipyard workers. Median non-cancer hazard quotients for shipyard workers and submarine crew ranged between 0.4-54.6, with the highest quotients estimated for unprotected shipyard workers. Median cancer risk estimates ranged from 7.3 x 10(-6) to 1.1 x 10(-3) with the highest estimated risk calculated for unprotected shipyard workers. Our findings suggest that PCB surface concentrations found onboard inactive nuclear submarines commissioned prior to 1970 may be high enough to constitute a possible risk to the health of persons involved in dismantling of Navy submarines if PCB exposure is not minimized. Potential sources of uncertainty in our risk assessment include the correlation between PCB contamination levels on inactive versus active nuclear submarine vessels, the relationship between wipe sample concentrations and human exposure, dermal contact frequency with PCB-contaminated surfaces, carcinogenicity of PCBs in humans, and uncertainties inherent with the PCB cancer slope factor and oral RfD. Our findings support Navy policy that shipyard workers should wear personal protective equipment when PCB contamination is suspected or has been identified and that IH surveys should continue to identify sources of PCB contamination onboard vessels and reduce PCB contamination to concentrations that are reasonably achievable.

  4. Radiation risk estimation: Modelling approaches for “targeted” and “non-targeted” effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ballarini, Francesca; Alloni, Daniele; Facoetti, Angelica; Mairani, Andrea; Nano, Rosanna; Ottolenghi, Andrea

    The estimation of the risks from low doses of ionizing radiation - including heavy ions - is still a debated question. In particular, the action of heavy ions on biological targets needs further investigation. In this framework, we present a mechanistic model and a Monte Carlo simulation code for the induction of different types of chromosome aberrations. The model, previously validated for gamma rays and light ions, has recently started to be extended to heavy ions such as Iron and Carbon, which are of interest both for space radiation protection and for hadrontherapy. Preliminary results were found to be in agreement with experimental dose-response curves for aberration yields observed following heavy-ion irradiation of human lymphocytes treated with the Premature Chromosome Condensation technique. During the last 10 years, the "Linear No Threshold" hypothesis has been challenged by a large number of observations on the so-called "non-targeted effects" including bystander effect, which consists of the induction of cytogenetic damage in cells not directly traversed by radiation, most likely as a response to molecular messengers released by directly irradiated cells. Although it is now clear that cellular communication plays a fundamental role, our knowledge on the mechanisms underlying bystander effects is still poor, and would largely benefit from further investigations including theoretical models and simulation codes. In the present paper we will review different modelling approaches, including one that is being developed at the University of Pavia, focusing on the assumptions adopted by the various authors and on their implications in terms of low-dose radiation risk, as well as on the identification of "critical" parameters that can modulate the model outcomes.

  5. The use of kernel density estimators in breakthrough curve reconstruction and advantages in risk analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Siirila, E. R.; Fernandez-Garcia, D.; Sanchez-Vila, X.

    2014-12-01

    Particle tracking (PT) techniques, often considered favorable over Eulerian techniques due to artificial smoothening in breakthrough curves (BTCs), are evaluated in a risk-driven framework. Recent work has shown that given a relatively few number of particles (np), PT methods can yield well-constructed BTCs with kernel density estimators (KDEs). This work compares KDE and non-KDE BTCs simulated as a function of np (102-108) and averaged as a function of the exposure duration, ED. Results show that regardless of BTC shape complexity, un-averaged PT BTCs show a large bias over several orders of magnitude in concentration (C) when compared to the KDE results, remarkably even when np is as low as 102. With the KDE, several orders of magnitude less np are required to obtain the same global error in BTC shape as the PT technique. PT and KDE BTCs are averaged as a function of the ED with standard and new methods incorporating the optimal h (ANA). The lowest error curve is obtained through the ANA method, especially for smaller EDs. Percent error of peak of averaged-BTCs, important in a risk framework, is approximately zero for all scenarios and all methods for np ≥105, but vary between the ANA and PT methods, when np is lower. For fewer np, the ANA solution provides a lower error fit except when C oscillations are present during a short time frame. We show that obtaining a representative average exposure concentration is reliant on an accurate representation of the BTC, especially when data is scarce.

  6. Simulating daily rainfall fields over large areas for collective risk estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Serinaldi, Francesco; Kilsby, Chris G.

    2014-05-01

    Large scale rainfall models are needed for collective risk estimation in flood insurance, infrastructure networks and water resource management applications. There is a lack of models which can provide simulations over large river basins (potentially multi-national) at appropriate spatial resolution (e.g., 5-25 km) that preserve both the local properties of rainfall (i.e., marginal distributions and temporal correlation) and the spatial structure of the field (i.e., the spatial dependence structure). In this study we describe a methodology which merges meta-Gaussian random fields and generalized additive models to simulate realistic rainfall fields at daily time scale over large areas. Unlike other techniques previously proposed in the literature, the suggested approach does not split the rainfall occurrence and intensity processes and resorts to a unique discrete-continuous distribution to reproduce the local properties of rainfall. This choice allows the use of a unique meta-Gaussian spatio-temporal random field substrate that is devised to reproduce the spatial properties and the short term temporal characteristics of the observed precipitation. The model is calibrated and tested on a 25 km gridded daily rainfall data set covering the 817 000 km2 of the Danube basin. Standard and ad hoc diagnostics highlight the overall good performance over the whole range of rainfall values at multiple scales of spatio-temporal aggregation with particular attention to extreme values. Moreover, the modular structure of the model allows for refinements, adaptation to different areas and the introduction of exogenous forcing variables, thus making it a valuable tool for classical hydrologic analyses as well as for new challenges of network and reinsurance risk assessment over extensive areas.

  7. [Cardiovascular risk: initial estimation in the study cohort "CDC of the Canary Islands in Venezuela"].

    PubMed

    Viso, Miguel; Rodríguez, Zulma; Loreto, Neydys; Fernández, Yolima; Callegari, Carlos; Nicita, Graciela; González, Julio; Cabrera de León, Antonio; Reigosa, Aldo

    2011-12-01

    In Venezuela as in the Canary Islands (Spain), cardiovascular disease is a major cause of morbidity and mortality. The purpose of this research is to estimate the cardiovascular risk in the Canary Islands migrants living in Venezuela and participating in the study cohort "CDC of the Canary Islands in Venezuela". 452 individuals, aged 18 to 93 years (54.9% women), were enrolled between June 2008 and August 2009. A data survey was performed and their weight, height, abdomen and hip circumferences, and blood pressure were measured. After a 12-hour fasting period, a blood sample was obtained for glucose and lipid profile determinations. 40.5% of the subjects were over 65 years of age and 8% corresponded to the younger group (18-30 years). In men, the average age was 57.69 +/- 18.17 years and the body mass index 29.39 +/- 5.71 kg/m2, whereas women were 56.50 +/- 16.91 years and 28.20 +/- 5.57 kg/m2, respectively. The prevalence of metabolic syndrome was 49.1%, overweight and obesity together 75,2%, abdominal obesity 85.4%, diabetes 17.4%, impaired fasting glucose (IFG) 12.2%, elevated blood pressure 52.9%, low HDL-cholesterol 53,8% and elevated serum triglycerides 31%. Among subjects without diabetes or IFG, a third showed a high triglycerides/HDL-cholesterol ratio, indicating insulin resistance. We conclude that the Canarian-Venezuelan community suffers high prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors (obesity, abdominal obesity, dyslipidemia, diabetes). In relation to the current population of the Canary Islands, they show a lower frequency of IFG and a higher frequency of low HDL-cholesterol. In comparison to the Venezuelan population (Zulia), they showed to have lower prevalence of IFG, low HDL cholesterol and elevated triglycerides.

  8. Stochastic estimates of exposure and cancer risk from carbon tetrachloride released to the air from the rocky flats plant.

    PubMed

    Rood, A S; McGavran, P D; Aanenson, J W; Till, J E

    2001-08-01

    Carbon tetrachloride is a degreasing agent that was used at the Rocky Flats Plant (RFP) in Colorado to clean product components and equipment. The chemical is considered a volatile organic compound and a probable human carcinogen. During the time the plant operated (1953-1989), most of the carbon tetrachloride was released to the atmosphere through building exhaust ducts. A smaller amount was released to the air via evaporation from open-air burn pits and ground-surface discharge points. Airborne releases from the plant were conservatively estimated to be equivalent to the amount of carbon tetrachloride consumed annually by the plant, which was estimated to be between 3.6 and 180 Mg per year. This assumption was supported by calculations that showed that most of the carbon tetrachloride discharged to the ground surface would subsequently be released to the atmosphere. Atmospheric transport of carbon tetrachloride from the plant to the surrounding community was estimated using a Gaussian Puff dispersion model (RATCHET). Time-integrated concentrations were estimated for nine hypothetical but realistic exposure scenarios that considered variation in lifestyle, location, age, and gender. Uncertainty distributions were developed for cancer slope factors and atmospheric dispersion factors. These uncertainties were propagated through to the final risk estimate using Monte Carlo techniques. The geometric mean risk estimates varied from 5.2 x 10(-6) for a hypothetical rancher or laborer working near the RFP to 3.4 x 10(-9) for an infant scenario. The distribution of incremental lifetime cancer incidence risk for the hypothetical rancher was between 1.3 x 10(-6) (5% value) and 2.1 x 10(-5) (95% value). These estimates are similar to or exceed estimated cancer risks posed by releases of radionuclides from the site.

  9. Quantification and Radiological Risk Estimation Due to the Presence of Natural Radionuclides in Maiganga Coal, Nigeria

    PubMed Central

    Kolo, Matthew Tikpangi; Khandaker, Mayeen Uddin; Amin, Yusoff Mohd; Abdullah, Wan Hasiah Binti

    2016-01-01

    Following the increasing demand of coal for power generation, activity concentrations of primordial radionuclides were determined in Nigerian coal using the gamma spectrometric technique with the aim of evaluating the radiological implications of coal utilization and exploitation in the country. Mean activity concentrations of 226Ra, 232Th, and 40K were 8.18±0.3, 6.97±0.3, and 27.38±0.8 Bq kg-1, respectively. These values were compared with those of similar studies reported in literature. The mean estimated radium equivalent activity was 20.26 Bq kg-1 with corresponding average external hazard index of 0.05. Internal hazard index and representative gamma index recorded mean values of 0.08 and 0.14, respectively. These values were lower than their respective precautionary limits set by UNSCEAR. Average excess lifetime cancer risk was calculated to be 0.04×10−3, which was insignificant compared with 0.05 prescribed by ICRP for low level radiation. Pearson correlation matrix showed significant positive relationship between 226Ra and 232Th, and with other estimated hazard parameters. Cumulative mean occupational dose received by coal workers via the three exposure routes was 7.69 ×10−3 mSv y-1, with inhalation pathway accounting for about 98%. All radiological hazard indices evaluated showed values within limits of safety. There is, therefore, no likelihood of any immediate radiological health hazards to coal workers, final users, and the environment from the exploitation and utilization of Maiganga coal. PMID:27348624

  10. Estimation of the cardiovascular risk using World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) risk prediction charts in a rural population of South India

    PubMed Central

    Ghorpade, Arun Gangadhar; Shrivastava, Saurabh RamBihariLal; Kar, Sitanshu Sekhar; Sarkar, Sonali; Majgi, Sumanth Mallikarjuna; Roy, Gautam

    2015-01-01

    Background: World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) charts have been employed to predict the risk of cardiovascular outcome in heterogeneous settings. The aim of this research is to assess the prevalence of Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) risk factors and to estimate the cardiovascular risk among adults aged >40 years, utilizing the risk charts alone, and by the addition of other parameters. Methods: A cross-sectional study was performed in two of the villages availing health services of a medical college. Overall 570 subjects completed the assessment. The desired information was obtained using a pre-tested questionnaire and participants were also subjected to anthropometric measurements and laboratory investigations. The WHO/ISH risk prediction charts for the South-East Asian region was used to assess the cardiovascular risk among the study participants. Results: The study covered 570 adults aged above 40 years. The mean age of the subjects was 54.2 (±11.1) years and 53.3% subjects were women. Seventeen percent of the participants had moderate to high risk for the occurrence of cardiovascular events by using WHO/ISH risk prediction charts. In addition, CVD risk factors like smoking, alcohol, low High-Density Lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol were found in 32%, 53%, 56.3%, and 61.5% study participants, respectively. Conclusion: Categorizing people as low (<10%)/moderate (10%-20%)/high (>20%) risk is one of the crucial steps to mitigate the magnitude of cardiovascular fatal/non-fatal outcome. This cross-sectional study indicates that there is a high burden of CVD risk in the rural Pondicherry as assessed by WHO/ISH risk prediction charts. Use of WHO/ISH charts is easy and inexpensive screening tool in predicting the cardiovascular event PMID:26340393

  11. Incidence of viral markers and evaluation of the estimated risk in the Swiss blood donor population from 1996 to 2003.

    PubMed

    Niederhauser, C; Schneider, P; Fopp, M; Ruefer, A; Lévy, G

    2005-02-01

    Among the well known transfusion-associated risks, the transmission of pathogenic viruses is regarded as one of the most serious. Over the past two decades, a series of overlapping safety procedures have been successively implemented to minimise this risk. It is now generally considered that the risk of transmitting viral infections via blood products is very low in developed countries. The present study analyses the incidence of the key infectious diseases HIV, hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) between 1996 and 2003 from 99% of voluntary repeat blood donors visiting the blood transfusion service of the Swiss Red Cross. Furthermore the estimated risk of these viral markers was calculated. From 1996 to 2003 the incidence rate for HCV decreased continuously, whereas no significant decrease in the incidence rate of HIV and HBV was observed. From 2001 to 2003, the last calculated period, the residual risk was estimated to be 1 in 1,900,000 for HIV, 1 in 2,200,0000 for HCV and 1 in 115,000 for HBV, respectively. This agrees with international studies, which have been shown that the estimated residual risk for HBV between 1996 and 2003 is higher than that of HCV and HIV.

  12. Breast Cancer Risk Estimation Using Parenchymal Texture Analysis in Digital Breast Tomosynthesis

    SciTech Connect

    Ikejimba, Lynda C.; Kontos, Despina; Maidment, Andrew D. A.

    2010-10-11

    Mammographic parenchymal texture has been shown to correlate with genetic markers of developing breast cancer. Digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT) is a novel x-ray imaging technique in which tomographic images of the breast are reconstructed from multiple source projections acquired at different angles of the x-ray tube. Compared to digital mammography (DM), DBT eliminates breast tissue overlap, offering superior parenchymal tissue visualization. We hypothesize that texture analysis in DBT could potentially provide a better assessment of parenchymal texture and ultimately result in more accurate assessment of breast cancer risk. As a first step towards validating this hypothesis, we investigated the association between DBT parenchymal texture and breast percent density (PD), a known breast cancer risk factor, and compared it to DM. Bilateral DBT and DM images from 71 women participating in a breast cancer screening trial were analyzed. Filtered-backprojection was used to reconstruct DBT tomographic planes in 1 mm increments with 0.22 mm in-plane resolution. Corresponding DM images were acquired at 0.1 mm pixel resolution. Retroareolar regions of interest (ROIs) equivalent to 2.5 cm{sup 3} were segmented from the DBT images and corresponding 2.5 cm{sup 2} ROIs were segmented from the DM images. Breast PD was mammographically estimated using the Cumulus scale. Overall, DBT texture features demonstrated a stronger correlation than DM to PD. The Pearson correlation coefficients for DBT were r = 0.40 (p<0.001) for contrast and r = -0.52 (p<0.001) for homogeneity; the corresponding DM correlations were r = 0.26 (p = 0.002) and r = -0.33 (p<0.001). Multiple linear regression of the texture features versus breast PD also demonstrated significantly stronger associations in DBT (R{sup 2} = 0.39) compared to DM (R{sup 2} = 0.33). We attribute these observations to the superior parenchymal tissue visualization in DBT. Our study is the first to perform DBT texture analysis in a

  13. Spatial Estimation of Populations at Risk from Radiological Dispersion Device Terrorism Incidents

    SciTech Connect

    Regens, J.L.; Gunter, J.T.

    2008-07-01

    Delineation of the location and size of the population potentially at risk of exposure to ionizing radiation is one of the key analytical challenges in estimating accurately the severity of the potential health effects associated with a radiological terrorism incident. Regardless of spatial scale, the geographical units for which population data commonly are collected rarely coincide with the geographical scale necessary for effective incident management and medical response. This paper identifies major government and commercial open sources of U.S. population data and presents a GIS-based approach for allocating publicly available population data, including age distributions, to geographical units appropriate for planning and implementing incident management and medical response strategies. In summary: The gravity model offers a straight-forward, empirical tool for estimating population flows, especially when geographical areas are relatively well-defined in terms of accessibility and spatial separation. This is particularly important for several reasons. First, the spatial scale for the area impacted by a RDD terrorism event is unlikely to match fully the spatial scale of available population data. That is, the plume spread typically will not uniformly overlay the impacted area. Second, the number of people within the impacted area varies as a function whether an attack occurs during the day or night. For example, the population of a central business district or industrial area typically is larger during the day while predominately residential areas have larger night time populations. As a result, interpolation techniques that link population data to geographical units and allocate those data based on time-frame at a spatial scale that is relevant to enhancing preparedness and response. The gravity model's main advantage is that it efficiently allocates readily available, open source population data to geographical units appropriate for planning and implementing

  14. Accounting for uncertainty in systematic bias in exposure estimates used in relative risk regression

    SciTech Connect

    Gilbert, E.S.

    1995-12-01

    In many epidemiologic studies addressing exposure-response relationships, sources of error that lead to systematic bias in exposure measurements are known to be present, but there is uncertainty in the magnitude and nature of the bias. Two approaches that allow this uncertainty to be reflected in confidence limits and other statistical inferences were developed, and are applicable to both cohort and case-control studies. The first approach is based on a numerical approximation to the likelihood ratio statistic, and the second uses computer simulations based on the score statistic. These approaches were applied to data from a cohort study of workers at the Hanford site (1944-86) exposed occupationally to external radiation; to combined data on workers exposed at Hanford, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and Rocky Flats Weapons plant; and to artificial data sets created to examine the effects of varying sample size and the magnitude of the risk estimate. For the worker data, sampling uncertainty dominated and accounting for uncertainty in systematic bias did not greatly modify confidence limits. However, with increased sample size, accounting for these uncertainties became more important, and is recommended when there is interest in comparing or combining results from different studies.

  15. A vibroseismic method for estimation of the ecological risk of powerful technogenic and natural explosions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khairetdinov, Marat; Voskoboynikova, Gyulnara; Sedukhina, Galina

    2016-04-01

    This paper presents the results of experimental investigations of an original ecologically safe approach, proposed by the authors, to assessment of the geoecological risk from powerful mass explosions for the social and natural environment. In this approach, seismic vibrators are used as sources imitating explosions but having, in contrast to them, a much smaller power. Such sources can simultaneously excite in the medium seismic and acoustic (vibro-seismo-acoustic) oscillations with precision power and frequency-time characteristics. A comparative analysis of seismic and acoustic wave levels allows us to conclude that the major ecologically dangerous effect of ground-based test site explosions is due to acoustic waves whose energy is an order of magnitude greater than that of seismic waves. Calculated azimuthal dependencies of the focusing effect of acoustic waves in the infralow frequency range at different wind velocities and "source-receiver" distances by vibrator CV-40 were obtained . It was found that meteorological conditions have a greater influence on acoustic wave focusing in experiments that according to theoretical results. The effects of focusing of acoustic oscillations in space were revealed and estimated quantitatively. Specifically, it was proved that even at a weak wind of 2-4 m/s the ratio between the maximal and minimal acoustic wave levels depending on the azimuthal direction can reach 50. This can be a reason for great ecological hazard of technogenic explosions. The received results are new and original. The received results are new and original.

  16. Estimated Exposure Risks from Carcinogenic Nitrosamines in Urban Airborne Particulate Matter.

    PubMed

    Farren, Naomi J; Ramírez, Noelia; Lee, James D; Finessi, Emanuela; Lewis, Alastair C; Hamilton, Jacqueline F

    2015-08-18

    Organic nitrogen (ON) compounds are present in atmospheric particulate matter (PM), but compared to their inorganic, hydrocarbon, and oxygenated counterparts, they are difficult to characterize due to their low concentrations in complex matrices. Nitrosamines are a class of ON compounds known to be highly carcinogenic and include species formed from nicotine degradation, but there are no detailed estimates of their abundance in ambient air. We use a highly sensitive analytical method, which is capable of separating over 700 ON compounds, to determine daily variability in nicotine, and 8 nonspecific and 4 tobacco-specific nitrosamines in ambient PM from central London over two periods in winter and summer. The average total nitrosamine concentration was 5.2 ng m(-3), substantially exceeding a current public recommendation of 0.3 ng m(-3) on a daily basis. The lifetime cancer risk from nitrosamines in urban PM exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency guideline of 1 excess cancer case per 1 million population exposed after 1 h of exposure to observed concentrations per day over the duration of an adult lifetime. A clear relationship between ambient nitrosamines and total PM2.5 was observed with 1.9 ng m(-3) ± 2.6 ng m(-3) (total nitrosamine) per 10 μg m(-3) PM2.5.

  17. Significance of model credibility in estimating climate projection distributions for regional hydroclimatological risk assessments

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brekke, L.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, M.

    2008-01-01

    Ensembles of historical climate simulations and climate projections from the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset were investigated to determine how model credibility affects apparent relative scenario likelihoods in regional risk assessments. Methods were developed and applied in a Northern California case study. An ensemble of 59 twentieth century climate simulations from 17 WCRP CMIP3 models was analyzed to evaluate relative model credibility associated with a 75-member projection ensemble from the same 17 models. Credibility was assessed based on how models realistically reproduced selected statistics of historical climate relevant to California climatology. Metrics of this credibility were used to derive relative model weights leading to weight-threshold culling of models contributing to the projection ensemble. Density functions were then estimated for two projected quantities (temperature and precipitation), with and without considering credibility-based ensemble reductions. An analysis for Northern California showed that, while some models seem more capable at recreating limited aspects twentieth century climate, the overall tendency is for comparable model performance when several credibility measures are combined. Use of these metrics to decide which models to include in density function development led to local adjustments to function shapes, but led to limited affect on breadth and central tendency, which were found to be more influenced by 'completeness' of the original ensemble in terms of models and emissions pathways. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

  18. Utility of Recent Studies to Assess the National Research Council 2001 Estimates of Cancer Risk from Ingested Arsenic

    PubMed Central

    Gibb, Herman; Haver, Cary; Gaylor, David; Ramasamy, Santhini; Lee, Janice S.; Lobdell, Danelle; Wade, Timothy; Chen, Chao; White, Paul; Sams, Reeder

    2011-01-01

    Objective The purpose of this review is to evaluate the impact of recent epidemiologic literature on the National Research Council (NRC) assessment of the lung and bladder cancer risks from ingesting low concentrations (< 100 μg/L) of arsenic-contaminated water. Data sources, extraction, and synthesis PubMed was searched for epidemiologic studies pertinent to the lung and bladder cancer risk estimates from low-dose arsenic exposure. Articles published from 2001, the date of the NRC assessment, through September 2010 were included. Fourteen epidemiologic studies on lung and bladder cancer risk were identified as potentially useful for the analysis. Conclusions Recent epidemiologic studies that have investigated the risk of lung and bladder cancer from low arsenic exposure are limited in their ability to detect the NRC estimates of excess risk because of sample size and less than lifetime exposure. Although the ecologic nature of the Taiwanese studies on which the NRC estimates are based present certain limitations, the data from these studies have particular strengths in that they describe lung and bladder cancer risks resulting from lifetime exposure in a large population and remain the best data on which to conduct quantitative risk assessment. Continued follow-up of a population in northeastern Taiwan, however, offers the best opportunity to improve the cancer risk assessment for arsenic in drinking water. Future studies of arsenic < 100 μg/L in drinking water and lung and bladder cancer should consider adequacy of the sample size, the synergistic relationship of arsenic and smoking, duration of arsenic exposure, age when exposure began and ended, and histologic subtype. PMID:21030336

  19. Absolute calibration of optical flats

    DOEpatents

    Sommargren, Gary E.

    2005-04-05

    The invention uses the phase shifting diffraction interferometer (PSDI) to provide a true point-by-point measurement of absolute flatness over the surface of optical flats. Beams exiting the fiber optics in a PSDI have perfect spherical wavefronts. The measurement beam is reflected from the optical flat and passed through an auxiliary optic to then be combined with the reference beam on a CCD. The combined beams include phase errors due to both the optic under test and the auxiliary optic. Standard phase extraction algorithms are used to calculate this combined phase error. The optical flat is then removed from the system and the measurement fiber is moved to recombine the two beams. The newly combined beams include only the phase errors due to the auxiliary optic. When the second phase measurement is subtracted from the first phase measurement, the absolute phase error of the optical flat is obtained.

  20. The Absolute Spectrum Polarimeter (ASP)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kogut, A. J.

    2010-01-01

    The Absolute Spectrum Polarimeter (ASP) is an Explorer-class mission to map the absolute intensity and linear polarization of the cosmic microwave background and diffuse astrophysical foregrounds over the full sky from 30 GHz to 5 THz. The principal science goal is the detection and characterization of linear polarization from an inflationary epoch in the early universe, with tensor-to-scalar ratio r much greater than 1O(raised to the power of { -3}) and Compton distortion y < 10 (raised to the power of{-6}). We describe the ASP instrument and mission architecture needed to detect the signature of an inflationary epoch in the early universe using only 4 semiconductor bolometers.

  1. Physics of negative absolute temperatures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abraham, Eitan; Penrose, Oliver

    2017-01-01

    Negative absolute temperatures were introduced into experimental physics by Purcell and Pound, who successfully applied this concept to nuclear spins; nevertheless, the concept has proved controversial: a recent article aroused considerable interest by its claim, based on a classical entropy formula (the "volume entropy") due to Gibbs, that negative temperatures violated basic principles of statistical thermodynamics. Here we give a thermodynamic analysis that confirms the negative-temperature interpretation of the Purcell-Pound experiments. We also examine the principal arguments that have been advanced against the negative temperature concept; we find that these arguments are not logically compelling, and moreover that the underlying "volume" entropy formula leads to predictions inconsistent with existing experimental results on nuclear spins. We conclude that, despite the counterarguments, negative absolute temperatures make good theoretical sense and did occur in the experiments designed to produce them.

  2. Cognitive Predictors of Calculations and Number Line Estimation with Whole Numbers and Fractions among At-Risk Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Namkung, Jessica M.; Fuchs, Lynn S.

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the cognitive predictors of calculations and number line estimation with whole numbers and fractions. At-risk 4th-grade students (N = 139) were assessed on 7 domain-general abilities (i.e., working memory, processing speed, concept formation, language, attentive behavior, and nonverbal reasoning) and…

  3. Cognitive Predictors of Calculations and Number Line Estimation with Whole Numbers and Fractions among At-Risk Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Namkung, Jessica M.; Fuchs, Lynn S.

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the cognitive predictors of calculations and number line estimation with whole numbers and fractions. At-risk 4th-grade students (N = 139) were assessed on 6 domain-general abilities (i.e., working memory, processing speed, concept formation, language, attentive behavior, and nonverbal reasoning) and…

  4. Incorporating variability in point estimates in risk assessment: bridging the gap between LC50 and population endpoints

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Historically, the use of point estimates such as the LC50 has been instrumental in assessing the risk associated with toxicants to rare or economically important species. In recent years, growing awareness of the shortcomings of this approach has led to an increased focus on analyses using populatio...

  5. Estimated Risk of Developing Selected DSM-IV Disorders among 5-Year-Old Children with Prenatal Cocaine Exposure

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morrow, Connie E.; Accornero, Veronica H.; Xue, Lihua; Manjunath, Sudha; Culbertson, Jan L.; Anthony, James C.; Bandstra, Emmalee S.

    2009-01-01

    We estimated childhood risk of developing selected DSM-IV Disorders, including Attention-Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD), Oppositional Defiant Disorder (ODD), and Separation Anxiety Disorder (SAD), in children with prenatal cocaine exposure (PCE). Children were enrolled prospectively at birth (n = 476) with prenatal drug exposures documented…

  6. Inconsistencies in place definition: How different operational place definitions affect estimates of adolescent smoking and drinking risk.

    PubMed

    Brady, Joanne E; Weitzman, Beth C

    2007-06-01

    We find that estimates of the prevalence of teenage smoking and drinking in "urban," "suburban," and "rural" areas vary with different definitions of these types of geographic units. Given the salience of youth risk behavior to the public debate, we urge researchers to purposefully choose their definitions of geographic areas and to be explicit about those choices.

  7. Violence and Drug Use in Rural Teens: National Prevalence Estimates from the 2003 Youth Risk Behavior Survey

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Andrew O.; Mink, Michael D.; Harun, Nusrat; Moore, Charity G.; Martin, Amy B.; Bennett, Kevin J.

    2008-01-01

    Objectives: The purpose of this study was to compare national estimates of drug use and exposure to violence between rural and urban teens. Methods: Twenty-eight dependent variables from the 2003 Youth Risk Behavior Survey were used to compare violent activities, victimization, suicidal behavior, tobacco use, alcohol use, and illegal drug use…

  8. Does the Honey Bee "Risk Cup" Runneth Over? Estimating Aggregate Exposures for Assessing Pesticide Risks to Honey Bees in Agroecosystems.

    PubMed

    Berenbaum, May R

    2016-01-13

    Honey bees (Apis mellifera) are uniquely vulnerable to nontarget pesticide impacts because, as ubiquitous managed pollinators, they are deliberately transported into areas where crops are grown with pesticides. Moreover, attributes making them excellent managed pollinators, including large long-lived colonies and complex behavior, also make them challenging subjects for toxicity bioassays. For over 150 years, improvements in formulation and delivery of pesticides, increasing their environmental and temporal presence, have had unintended consequences for honey bees. Since 1996, the Environmental Protection Agency has used "aggregate risk"--exposure risks to all possible sources--to set tolerances; once a "risk cup" is filled, no new pesticide or use can be approved unless risks are reduced elsewhere. The EPA now recommends a modeling approach for aggregating all exposure risks for bees, with differential lifestage sensitivity and exposure probabilities. Thus, the honey bee is the first insect with its own "risk cup"--a technological innovation that may not have unintended consequences for this beleaguered beneficial species.

  9. Aggregate versus individual-level sexual behavior assessment: how much detail is needed to accurately estimate HIV/STI risk?

    PubMed

    Pinkerton, Steven D; Galletly, Carol L; McAuliffe, Timothy L; DiFranceisco, Wayne; Raymond, H Fisher; Chesson, Harrell W

    2010-02-01

    The sexual behaviors of HIV/sexually transmitted infection (STI) prevention intervention participants can be assessed on a partner-by-partner basis: in aggregate (i.e., total numbers of sex acts, collapsed across partners) or using a combination of these two methods (e.g., assessing five partners in detail and any remaining partners in aggregate). There is a natural trade-off between the level of sexual behavior detail and the precision of HIV/STI acquisition risk estimates. The results of this study indicate that relatively simple aggregate data collection techniques suffice to adequately estimate HIV risk. For highly infectious STIs, in contrast, accurate STI risk assessment requires more intensive partner-by-partner methods.

  10. Role of assessment components and recent adverse outcomes in risk estimation and prediction: Use of the Short Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START) in an adult secure inpatient mental health service.

    PubMed

    O'Shea, Laura E; Dickens, Geoffrey L

    2016-06-30

    The Short Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability is a structured judgement tool used to inform risk estimation for multiple adverse outcomes. In research, risk estimates outperform the tool's strength and vulnerability scales for violence prediction. Little is known about what its'component parts contribute to the assignment of risk estimates and how those estimates fare in prediction of non-violent adverse outcomes compared with the structured components. START assessment and outcomes data from a secure mental health service (N=84) was collected. Binomial and multinomial regression analyses determined the contribution of selected elements of the START structured domain and recent adverse risk events to risk estimates and outcomes prediction for violence, self-harm/suicidality, victimisation, and self-neglect. START vulnerabilities and lifetime history of violence, predicted the violence risk estimate; self-harm and victimisation estimates were predicted only by corresponding recent adverse events. Recent adverse events uniquely predicted all corresponding outcomes, with the exception of self-neglect which was predicted by the strength scale. Only for victimisation did the risk estimate outperform prediction based on the START components and recent adverse events. In the absence of recent corresponding risk behaviour, restrictions imposed on the basis of START-informed risk estimates could be unwarranted and may be unethical.

  11. Estimating the risks of multiple, covarying stressors in the National Lakes Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The National Lakes Assessment (NLA) used relative and attributable risks to measure the apparent nationwide effects of excess nitrogen, reduced lakeshore habitat, and other stressors, on planktonic assemblages in lakes. The risk measures, borrowed from human health research,...

  12. The Geophysical, Anthropogenic, and Social Dimensions of Delta Risk: Estimating Contemporary and Future Risks at the Global Scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tessler, Z. D.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Grossberg, M.; Gladkova, I.; Aizenman, H.; Syvitski, J. P.; Foufoula-Georgiou, E.

    2015-12-01

    Deltas are highly sensitive to increasing risks arising from local humanactivities, land subsidence, regional water management, global sea-level rise,and climate extremes. We extended a delta risk framework to include the impactof relative sea-level rise on exposure to flood conditions. We apply thisframework to an integrated set of global environmental, geophysical, and socialindicators over 48 major deltas to quantify how delta flood risk due to extremeevents is changing over time. Although geophysical and relative sea-level risederived risks are distributed across all levels of economic development, wealthycountries effectively limit their present-day threat by gross domesticproduct-enabled infrastructure and coastal defense investments. However, wheninvestments do not address the long-term drivers of land subsidence and relativesea-level rise, overall risk can be very sensitive to changes in protectivecapability. For instance, we show how in an energy-constrained future scenario,such protections will probably prove to be unsustainable, raising relative risksby four to eight times in the Mississippi and Rhine deltas and by one-and-a-halfto four times in the Chao Phraya and Yangtze deltas. The current emphasis onshort-term solutions on the world's deltas will greatly constrain options fordesigning sustainable solutions in the long term.

  13. Estimation and testing of the relative risk of disease in case-control studies with a set of k matched controls per case with known prevalence of disease.

    PubMed

    Moser, Barry Kurt; Halabi, Susan

    2012-01-13

    The analysis of case-control studies with matched controls per case is well documented in the medical literature. Of primary interest is the estimation of the relative risk of disease. Matched case-control studies fall into two scenarios: the probability of exposure is constant within each of the case and control groups, or the probability of exposure varies within each group. Numerous estimation procedures have been developed for both scenarios. Often these procedures are developed under the rare disease assumption, where the relative risk of disease is approximated by the odds ratio. In this paper, without making the rare disease assumption, we develop consistent estimators of the relative risk of disease for both scenarios. Exact derivations of the relative risk of disease are provided. Estimators, confidence intervals, and test statistics for the relative risk of disease are developed. We then make the following observations based on extensive simulations. First, our estimators are as close or closer to the relative risk of disease than other estimators. Second, our estimators produce mean square errors for the relative risk of disease that are as good as or better than these other estimators. Third, our confidence intervals provide accurate coverage probabilities. Therefore, these new estimators, confidence intervals, and test statistics can be used to either estimate or test the relative risk of disease in matched case-control studies.

  14. Estimated effect of ventilation and filtration on chronic health risks in U.S. offices, schools, and retail stores.

    PubMed

    Chan, W R; Parthasarathy, S; Fisk, W J; McKone, T E

    2016-04-01

    We assessed the chronic health risks from inhalation exposure to volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and particulate matter (PM2.5) in U.S. offices, schools, grocery, and other retail stores and evaluated how chronic health risks were affected by changes in ventilation rates and air filtration efficiency. Representative concentrations of VOCs and PM2.5 were obtained from available data. Using a mass balance model, changes in exposure to VOCs and PM2.5 were predicted if ventilation rate were to increase or decrease by a factor of two, and if higher efficiency air filters were used. Indoor concentrations were compared to health guidelines to estimate percentage exceedances. The estimated chronic health risks associated with VOC and PM2.5 exposures in these buildings were low relative to the risks from exposures in homes. Chronic health risks were driven primarily by exposures to PM2.5 that were evaluated using disease incidence of mortality, chronic bronchitis, and non-fatal stroke. The leading cancer risk factor was exposure to formaldehyde. Using disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to account for both cancer and non-cancer effects, results suggest that increasing ventilation alone is ineffective at reducing chronic health burdens. Other strategies, such as pollutant source control and the use of particle filtration, should also be considered.

  15. Uncertainty analysis in vulnerability estimations for elements at risk- a review of concepts and some examples on landslides

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ciurean, R. L.; Glade, T.

    2012-04-01

    Decision under uncertainty is a constant of everyday life and an important component of risk management and governance. Recently, experts have emphasized the importance of quantifying uncertainty in all phases of landslide risk analysis. Due to its multi-dimensional and dynamic nature, (physical) vulnerability is inherently complex and the "degree of loss" estimates imprecise and to some extent even subjective. Uncertainty analysis introduces quantitative modeling approaches that allow for a more explicitly objective output, improving the risk management process as well as enhancing communication between various stakeholders for better risk governance. This study presents a review of concepts for uncertainty analysis in vulnerability of elements at risk to landslides. Different semi-quantitative and quantitative methods are compared based on their feasibility in real-world situations, hazard dependency, process stage in vulnerability assessment (i.e. input data, model, output), and applicability within an integrated landslide hazard and risk framework. The resulted observations will help to identify current gaps and future needs in vulnerability assessment, including estimation of uncertainty propagation, transferability of the methods, development of visualization tools, but also address basic questions like what is uncertainty and how uncertainty can be quantified or treated in a reliable and reproducible way.

  16. Estimated risks of radon-induced lung cancer for different exposure profiles based on the new EPA model.

    PubMed

    Chen, Jing

    2005-04-01

    Radon is a naturally occurring radioactive gas. When inhaled, radon can cause mutations that lead to lung cancer. Some new epidemiologic studies indicate that indoor radon is a public health problem. The BEIR VI report outlined its preferred two risk models for the combined effects of smoking and exposure to radon progeny, and listed the estimated risk to ever-smokers and never-smokers of both sexes due to lifetime exposure. However, exposures for shorter periods of time are of practical interest since exposure to elevated levels of radon may occur and end at any age. This study aims to produce practical tables of lifetime relative risks for exposures between any two age intervals from 0 to 110, and for various radon concentrations found in homes from 100 to 1,000 Bq m(-3). The calculations are based on the risk model developed recently by U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The EPA's risk model is a single model that gives risk values midway between those obtained from the two BEIR VI preferred models. The detailed tables provide a clearer view of the age groups at higher risk and the effect of exposure duration. The results will help radiation protection practitioners to better communicate indoor radon risk to members of the public.

  17. Estimating relative risk of within-lake aquatic plant invasion using combined measures of recreational boater movement and habitat suitability.

    PubMed

    Wittmann, Marion E; Kendall, Bruce E; Jerde, Christopher L; Anderson, Lars W J

    2015-01-01

    Effective monitoring, prevention and impact mitigation of nonindigenous aquatic species relies upon the ability to predict dispersal pathways and receiving habitats with the greatest risk of establishment. To examine mechanisms affecting species establishment within a large lake, we combined observations of recreational boater movements with empirical measurements of habitat suitability represented by nearshore wave energy to assess the relative risk of Eurasian watermilfoil (Myriophyllum spicatum) establishment. The model was evaluated using information from a 17 year (1995-2012) sequence of M. spicatum presence and absence monitoring. M. spicatum presence was not specifically correlated with recreational boater movements; however its establishment appears to be limited by wave action in Lake Tahoe. Of the sites in the "High" establishment risk category (n = 37), 54% had current or historical infestations, which included 8 of the 10 sites with the highest relative risk. Of the 11 sites in the "Medium" establishment risk category, 5 had current or historical M. spicatum populations. Most (76%) of the sites in the "Low" establishment risk category were observed in locations with higher wave action. Four sites that received zero boater visits from infested locations were occupied by M. spicatum. This suggests that the boater survey either represents incomplete coverage of boater movement, or other processes, such as the movement of propagules by surface currents or introductions from external sources are important to the establishment of this species. This study showed the combination of habitat specific and dispersal data in a relative risk framework can potentially reduce uncertainty in estimates of invasion risk.

  18. Estimation of risk based on multiple events in radiation carcinogenesis of rat skin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burns, F. J.; Jin, Y.; Garte, S. J.; Hosselet, S.

    1994-10-01

    In the multistage theory of carcinogenesis, cells progress to cancer through a series of discrete, irreversible, heritable genetic alterations or mutations. However data on radiation-induced cancer incidence in rat skin suggests that some part of an intermediate repairable alteration may occur. Data are presented on cancer induction in rat skin exposed to the following radiations: 1. an electron beam (LET = 0.34 keV/um, 2. a neon ion beam (LET = 25 keV/um and 3. an argon ion beam (LET = 125 keV/um. The latter 2 beams were generated by the Bevalac at the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, Berkeley, CA. About 6.0 cm2 of skin was irradiated per rat. The rats were observed every 6 weeks for at least 78 weeks and tumors were scored at first occurrence. Several histological types of cancer, including squamous and basal cell carcinomas, were induced. The cancer yield versus radiation dose was fitted by the quadratic equation (Y (D) = CLD + BD2), and the parameters C and B were estimated for each type of radiation. Analysis of the DNA from the electron-induced carcinomas indicated that K-ras and/or c-myc oncogenes were activated in all tumors tested, although only a small proportion of neon-induced tumors showed similar activation. In situ hybridization indicated that the cancers contain subpopulations of cells with differing amounts of c-myc and H-ras amplification. The results are consistent with the idea that ionizing radiation produces carcinogenically relevant lesions via 2 repairable events at low LET and via a non-repairable, linked event pathway at high LET; either pathway may advance the cell by 1 stage in the multistage model. The model, if validated, permits the direct calculation of cancer risk in rat skin in a way that can be subjected to experimental testing.

  19. Social and economic factors of the natural risk growth: estimation of the Russian regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petrova, E.

    2003-04-01

    Òhe vulnerability of the population and economy territorial complexes (PETC) to the influence of unfavorable and dangerous natural processes and events is determined not only by the physical parameters of natural hazards in the given region, but also by economic and social peculiarities of the PETC by itself. It depends on economy type, on PETC’s age, structure and dimensions as well as on degree of its participation in the territorial division of labor. PETC would be more vulnerable to the natural hazards impact if its population density, concentration of the industrial capacities (especially of the objects that additionally create the potential danger of the man-caused catastrophes such as nuclear-power stations, chemical enterprises, oil refineries and so on), concentration of transport and other means of communication, the technological complexity, the originality of the objects included in it as well as the originality of PETC by itself would be higher. The PETC with the unfavorable socio-political and ecological situation and underdeveloped management structures are more vulnerable. The estimation of regions by PETC vulnerability degree to the natural hazards were marked out on a base of data about the actual distribution of the natural hazards in Russia and analysis of the economic indices of the Russian Federation subjects. Among the economic indexes the per capita production of Gross Regional Product (GRP), population density, road density, the degree of appraisal depreciation of the fixed assets, the land cultivation degree of the territory, forest share and so on were taken into account. As the analysis showed, the economic and social factors of the natural risk growth are active in the majority of the regions of the Russian Federation. Such a situation demands the increased attention of state and local authorities to this problem for lowering the economic and social constituents of the growth of natural hazards.

  20. A competing risks approach for time estimation of household WEEE disposal

    SciTech Connect

    Gutierrez, E.; Adenso-Diaz, B.; Lozano, S.; Gonzalez-Torre, P.

    2010-08-15

    The recent growth in the number of electrical and electronic devices is viewed as one the priority waste streams in European Union waste management policy. This paper presents the findings of a survey to study domestic habits with respect to Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment (WEEE) in Spain. A specific problem when performing this estimation arises from the fact that consumers quite often store old appliances at home when they are no longer used. Focusing on four different types of appliance, survival analysis (SA) is used to study both the usage span and the reasons for no longer using each device. The time that the discarded products were kept at home before being disposed of was studied using competing risks (CR) analysis. The results of the analysis provide information on the distribution of the studied variables for the different outcomes as well as the influence exerted by the socio-demographic variables considered. Relations between these characteristics and the storage time of the appliances before disposal emerge based on survey data. For instance, the CR model finds that the storage time of the some appliances (i.e. refrigerator) is related to these social-demographics factors. However, other appliances (i.e. microwave oven) are less influenced by these factors. The attitude and motivation of the respondents to the survey as regards the End-of-Life of appliances were also analysed. A majority of respondents do not store discarded appliances at home. The first reason for storing appliances at home is the possibility of it being useful in the future and the second that the respondents did not know what to do with them.

  1. A competing risks approach for time estimation of household WEEE disposal.

    PubMed

    Gutiérrez, E; Adenso-Díaz, B; Lozano, S; González-Torre, P

    2010-01-01

    The recent growth in the number of electrical and electronic devices is viewed as one the priority waste streams in European Union waste management policy. This paper presents the findings of a survey to study domestic habits with respect to Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment (WEEE) in Spain. A specific problem when performing this estimation arises from the fact that consumers quite often store old appliances at home when they are no longer used. Focusing on four different types of appliance, survival analysis (SA) is used to study both the usage span and the reasons for no longer using each device. The time that the discarded products were kept at home before being disposed of was studied using competing risks (CR) analysis. The results of the analysis provide information on the distribution of the studied variables for the different outcomes as well as the influence exerted by the socio-demographic variables considered. Relations between these characteristics and the storage time of the appliances before disposal emerge based on survey data. For instance, the CR model finds that the storage time of the some appliances (i.e. refrigerator) is related to these social-demographics factors. However, other appliances (i.e. microwave oven) are less influenced by these factors. The attitude and motivation of the respondents to the survey as regards the End-of-Life of appliances were also analysed. A majority of respondents do not store discarded appliances at home. The first reason for storing appliances at home is the possibility of it being useful in the future and the second that the respondents did not know what to do with them.

  2. Ryegrass cv. Lema and guava cv. Paluma biomonitoring suitability for estimating nutritional contamination risks under seasonal climate in Southeastern Brazil.

    PubMed

    Bulbovas, Patricia; Camargo, Carla Z S; Domingos, Marisa

    2015-08-01

    The risks posed by nutrient deposition due to air pollution on ecosystems and their respective services to human beings can be appropriately estimated by bioindicator plants when they are well acclimated to the study region environmental conditions. This assumption encouraged us to comparatively evaluate the accumulation potential of ryegrass cv. Lema and guava cv. Paluma macro and micronutrients. We also indicated the most appropriate species for biomonitoring nutrient contamination risks in tropical areas of Southeastern Brazil, which are characterized by marked dry and wet seasons and complex mixtures of air pollutants from different sources (industries, vehicle traffic and agriculture). The study was conducted in 14 sites with different neighboring land uses, within the Metropolitan Region of Campinas, central-eastern region of São Paulo State. The exposure experiments with ryegrass and guava were consecutively repeated 40 (28 days each) and 12 (84 days each) times, respectively, from Oct/2010 to Sept/2013. Macro and micronutrients were analyzed and background concentrations and enrichment ratios (ER) were estimated to classify the contamination risk within the study region. Significantly higher ER suggested that ryegrass were the most appropriate accumulator species for N, S, Mg, Fe, Mn, Cu and Zn deposition and guava for K, Ca, P and B deposition. Based on these biomonitoring adjustments, we concluded that the nutrient deposition was spatially homogeneous in the study area, but clear seasonality in the contamination risk by nutritional inputs was evidenced. Significantly higher contamination risk by S, Fe, K and B occurred during the dry season and enhanced contamination risk by Mn, Cu and Zn were highlighted during the wet season. Distinctly high contamination risk was estimated for S, Fe and Mn in several exposure experiments.

  3. Eruptive history, current activity and risk estimation using geospatial information in the Colima volcano, Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Suarez-Plascencia, C.; Camarena-Garcia, M.; Nunez-Cornu, F. J.; Flores-Peña, S.

    2013-12-01

    Colima volcano, also known as Volcan de Fuego (19 30.696 N, 103 37.026 W), is located on the border between the states of Jalisco and Colima, and is the most active volcano in Mexico. In January 20, 1913, Colima had its biggest explosion of the twentieth century, with VEI 4, after the volcano had been dormant for almost 40 years. In 1961, a dome reached the northeastern edge of the crater and started a new lava flow, and from this date maintains constant activity. In February 10, 1999, a new explosion occurred at the summit dome. The activity during the 2001-2005 period was the most intense, but did not exceed VEI 3. The activity resulted in the formation of domes and their destruction after explosive events. The explosions originated eruptive columns, reaching altitudes between 4,500 and 9,000 masl, further pyroclastic flows reaching distances up to 3.5 km from the crater. During the explosive events, ash emissions were generated in all directions reaching distances up to 100 km, slightly affecting the nearby villages: Tuxpan, Tonila, Zapotlan, Cuauhtemoc, Comala, Zapotitlan de Vadillo and Toliman. During 2005 to July 2013, this volcano has had an intense effusive-explosive activity; similar to the one that took place during the period of 1890 through 1905. That was before the Plinian eruption of 1913, where pyroclastic flows reached a distance of 15 km from the crater. In this paper we estimate the risk of Colima volcano through the analysis of the vulnerability variables, hazard and exposure, for which we use: satellite imagery, recurring Fenix helicopter over flights of the state government of Jalisco, the use of the images of Google Earth and the population census 2010 INEGI. With this information and data identified changes in economic activities, development, and use of land. The expansion of the agricultural frontier in the lower sides of the volcano Colima, and with the advancement of traditional crops of sugar cane and corn, increased the growth of

  4. Estimation of human health risk associated with the consumption of pesticide-contaminated vegetables from Kumasi, Ghana.

    PubMed

    Akoto, Osei; Gavor, Sandra; Appah, Martin K; Apau, Joseph

    2015-05-01

    Analysis of pesticides consisting of 12 organophosphates (OPs), 10 organochlorines (OCs), and 6 pyrethroids in vegetables from Kumasi was conducted. Vegetable samples comprising 20 each of eggplants, okra, and tomatoes were analyzed. The method involves solvent extraction of pesticide residues followed by cleanup using silica gel. Residue analysis was carried out using a GC equipped with pulsed flame photometric detector for OP residues and electron capture detector for OC and pyrethroid residues. The results revealed that methamidophos exceeded the maximum residue limits (MRLs) in all vegetable commodities. Levels of malathion and dimethoate also exceeded the MRLs in eggplant and tomato samples. Endrin, α-endosulfan, γ-hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH), γ-chlordane, and heptachlor exceeded their MRLs in okra samples whereas methoxychlor, allethrin, and deltamethrin exceeded in eggplant samples. Health risk estimation revealed that dimethoate in tomato and endrin, heptachlor, γ-HCH, and γ-chlordane in okra could not pose potential toxicity to the consumer. The combined risk index showed no health risk to consumers due to intake of pyrethroid OC and OP residue on these vegetables. The overall risk index for combined pesticides due to consumption of all the vegetables was higher than 1, which signifies potential health risk to consumers. OPs were the major risk contributor for both eggplant and tomatoes which accounted for 87.78 and 95.84%, respectively, of the combined risk of pesticides in the vegetables. However, OC with 97.94% of the combined risk index was the major risk contributor for the okra. The carcinogenic risk of the OCs in okra was of no concern since their carcinogenic rates were below the acceptable risk level.

  5. Quantitative estimation of landslide risk from rapid debris slides on natural slopes in the Nilgiri hills, India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jaiswal, P.; van Westen, C. J.; Jetten, V.

    2011-06-01

    A quantitative procedure for estimating landslide risk to life and property is presented and applied in a mountainous area in the Nilgiri hills of southern India. Risk is estimated for elements at risk located in both initiation zones and run-out paths of potential landslides. Loss of life is expressed as individual risk and as societal risk using F-N curves, whereas the direct loss of properties is expressed in monetary terms. An inventory of 1084 landslides was prepared from historical records available for the period between 1987 and 2009. A substantially complete inventory was obtained for landslides on cut slopes (1042 landslides), while for natural slopes information on only 42 landslides was available. Most landslides were shallow translational debris slides and debris flowslides triggered by rainfall. On natural slopes most landslides occurred as first-time failures. For landslide hazard assessment the following information was derived: (1) landslides on natural slopes grouped into three landslide magnitude classes, based on landslide volumes, (2) the number of future landslides on natural slopes, obtained by establishing a relationship between the number of landslides on natural slopes and cut slopes for different return periods using a Gumbel distribution model, (3) landslide susceptible zones, obtained using a logistic regression model, and (4) distribution of landslides in the susceptible zones, obtained from the model fitting performance (success rate curve). The run-out distance of landslides was assessed empirically using landslide volumes, and the vulnerability of elements at risk was subjectively assessed based on limited historic incidents. Direct specific risk was estimated individually for tea/coffee and horticulture plantations, transport infrastructures, buildings, and people both in initiation and run-out areas. Risks were calculated by considering the minimum, average, and maximum landslide volumes in each magnitude class and the

  6. Using the USGS Seismic Risk Web Application to estimate aftershock damage

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McGowan, Sean M.; Luco, Nicolas

    2014-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Engineering Risk Assessment Project has developed the Seismic Risk Web Application to combine earthquake hazard and structural fragility information in order to calculate the risk of earthquake damage to structures. Enabling users to incorporate their own hazard and fragility information into the calculations will make it possible to quantify (in near real-time) the risk of additional damage to structures caused by aftershocks following significant earthquakes. Results can quickly be shared with stakeholders to illustrate the impact of elevated ground motion hazard and earthquake-compromised structural integrity on the risk of damage during a short-term, post-earthquake time horizon.

  7. Estimation of Ascaris infection risks in children under 15 from the consumption of wastewater-irrigated carrots.

    PubMed

    Mara, Duncan; Sleigh, Andrew

    2010-03-01

    Ascaris lumbricoides, the large human roundworm, infects approximately 1,200 million people, with children under the age of 15 being particularly at risk. Monte Carlo quantitative microbial risk analyses were undertaken to estimate median Ascaris infection risks in children under 15 from eating raw carrots irrigated with wastewater. For a tolerable additional disease burden of 10(-5) DALY (disability-adjusted life year) loss per person per year (pppy), the tolerable Ascaris infection risk is approximately 10(-3) pppy, which can be achieved in hyperendemic areas by a 4-log unit Ascaris reduction. This reduction can be easily achieved by wastewater treatment in a 1-day anaerobic pond and 5-day facultative pond (2 log units) and peeling prior to consumption (2 log units).

  8. Estimating the risks of acquiring a kidney abroad: a meta-analysis of complications following participation in transplant tourism.

    PubMed

    Anker, Ashley E; Feeley, Thomas H

    2012-01-01

    A meta-analysis of odds ratios comparing the risks of participating in transplant tourism by acquiring a kidney abroad to the risks associated with domestic kidney transplant was undertaken. Comparison across 12 medical outcomes indicates transplant tourists are significantly more likely to contract cytomegalovirus, hepatitis B, HIV, post-transplantation diabetes mellitus, and wound infection than those receiving domestic kidney transplant. Results also indicate that domestic kidney transplant recipients experience significantly higher one-yr patient- and graft-survival rates. Analyses are supplemented by independent comparisons of outcomes and provide practitioners with weighted estimates of the proportion of transplant recipients experiencing 15 medical outcomes. Practitioners are encouraged to caution patients of the medical risks associated with transplant tourism. Despite the illegal and unethical nature of transplant tourism, additional efforts are indicated to eliminate the organ trade and to educate wait-listed patients about the risks of transplant tourism.

  9. Modeling number of bacteria per food unit in comparison to bacterial concentration in quantitative risk assessment: impact on risk estimates.

    PubMed

    Pouillot, Régis; Chen, Yuhuan; Hoelzer, Karin

    2015-02-01

    When developing quantitative risk assessment models, a fundamental consideration for risk assessors is to decide whether to evaluate changes in bacterial levels in terms of concentrations or in terms of bacterial numbers. Although modeling bacteria in terms of integer numbers may be regarded as a more intuitive and rigorous choice, modeling bacterial concentrations is more popular as it is generally less mathematically complex. We tested three different modeling approaches in a simulation study. The first approach considered bacterial concentrations; the second considered the number of bacteria in contaminated units, and the third considered the expected number of bacteria in contaminated units. Simulation results indicate that modeling concentrations tends to overestimate risk compared to modeling the number of bacteria. A sensitivity analysis using a regression tree suggests that processes which include drastic scenarios consisting of combinations of large bacterial inactivation followed by large bacterial growth frequently lead to a >10-fold overestimation of the average risk when modeling concentrations as opposed to bacterial numbers. Alternatively, the approach of modeling the expected number of bacteria in positive units generates results similar to the second method and is easier to use, thus potentially representing a promising compromise.

  10. Estimating Potential Increased Bladder Cancer Risk Due to Increased Bromide Concentrations in Sources of Disinfected Drinking Waters.

    PubMed

    Regli, Stig; Chen, Jimmy; Messner, Michael; Elovitz, Michael S; Letkiewicz, Frank J; Pegram, Rex A; Pepping, T J; Richardson, Susan D; Wright, J Michael

    2015-11-17

    Public water systems are increasingly facing higher bromide levels in their source waters from anthropogenic contamination through coal-fired power plants, conventional oil and gas extraction, textile mills, and hydraulic fracturing. Climate change is likely to exacerbate this in coming years. We estimate bladder cancer risk from potential increased bromide levels in source waters of disinfecting public drinking water systems in the United States. Bladder cancer is the health end point used by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in its benefits analysis for regulating disinfection byproducts in drinking water. We use estimated increases in the mass of the four regulated trihalomethanes (THM4) concentrations (due to increased bromide incorporation) as the surrogate disinfection byproduct (DBP) occurrence metric for informing potential bladder cancer risk. We estimate potential increased excess lifetime bladder cancer risk as a function of increased source water bromide levels. Results based on data from 201 drinking water treatment plants indicate that a bromide increase of 50 μg/L could result in a potential increase of between 10(-3) and 10(-4) excess lifetime bladder cancer risk in populations served by roughly 90% of these plants.

  11. Estimating the Sizes of Populations At Risk of HIV Infection From Multiple Data Sources Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Model.

    PubMed

    Bao, Le; Raftery, Adrian E; Reddy, Amala

    2015-04-01

    In most countries in the world outside of sub-Saharan Africa, HIV is largely concentrated in sub-populations whose behavior puts them at higher risk of contracting and transmitting HIV, such as people who inject drugs, sex workers and men who have sex with men. Estimating the size of these sub-populations is important for assessing overall HIV prevalence and designing effective interventions. We present a Bayesian hierarchical model for estimating the sizes of local and national HIV key affected populations. The model incorporates multiple commonly used data sources including mapping data, surveys, interventions, capture-recapture data, estimates or guesstimates from organizations, and expert opinion. The proposed model is used to estimate the numbers of people who inject drugs in Bangladesh.

  12. Commissioning the neutron production of a Linac: Development of a simple tool for second cancer risk estimation

    SciTech Connect

    Romero-Expósito, M.; Sánchez-Nieto, B.; Terrón, J. A.; Lopes, M. C.; Ferreira, B. C.; Grishchuk, D.; Sandín, C.; Moral-Sánchez, S.; Melchor, M.; Domingo, C.; and others

    2015-01-15

    Purpose: Knowing the contribution of neutron to collateral effects in treatments is both a complex and a mandatory task. This work aims to present an operative procedure for neutron estimates in any facility using a neutron digital detector. Methods: The authors’ previous work established a linear relationship between the total second cancer risk due to neutrons (TR{sup n}) and the number of MU of the treatment. Given that the digital detector also presents linearity with MU, its response can be used to determine the TR{sup n} per unit MU, denoted as m, normally associated to a generic Linac model and radiotherapy facility. Thus, from the number of MU of each patient treatment, the associated risk can be estimated. The feasibility of the procedure was tested by applying it in eight facilities; patients were evaluated as well. Results: From the reading of the detector under selected irradiation conditions, m values were obtained for different machines, ranging from 0.25 × 10{sup −4}% per MU for an Elekta Axesse at 10 MV to 6.5 × 10{sup −4}% per MU for a Varian Clinac at 18 MV. Using these values, TR{sup n} of patients was estimated in each facility and compared to that from the individual evaluation. Differences were within the range of uncertainty of the authors’ methodology of equivalent dose and risk estimations. Conclusions: The procedure presented here allows an easy estimation of the second cancer risk due to neutrons for any patient, given the number of MU of the treatment. It will enable the consideration of this information when selecting the optimal treatment for a patient by its implementation in the treatment planning system.

  13. Absolute calibration of optical tweezers

    SciTech Connect

    Viana, N.B.; Mazolli, A.; Maia Neto, P.A.; Nussenzveig, H.M.; Rocha, M.S.; Mesquita, O.N.

    2006-03-27

    As a step toward absolute calibration of optical tweezers, a first-principles theory of trapping forces with no adjustable parameters, corrected for spherical aberration, is experimentally tested. Employing two very different setups, we find generally very good agreement for the transverse trap stiffness as a function of microsphere radius for a broad range of radii, including the values employed in practice, and at different sample chamber depths. The domain of validity of the WKB ('geometrical optics') approximation to the theory is verified. Theoretical predictions for the trapping threshold, peak position, depth variation, multiple equilibria, and 'jump' effects are also confirmed.

  14. Quantitative microbial risk assessment to estimate health risks attributable to water supply: can the technique be applied in developing countries with limited data?

    PubMed

    Howard, Guy; Pedley, Steve; Tibatemwa, Sarah

    2006-03-01

    In the 3rd edition of its Guidelines for Drinking-Water Quality (2004) (GDWQ) the World Health Organization (WHO) promotes the use of risk assessment coupled with risk management for the control of water safety in drinking water supplies. Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) provides a tool for estimating the disease-burden from pathogenic microorganisms in water using information about the distribution and occurrence of the pathogen or an appropriate surrogate. This information may then be used to inform decisions about appropriate management of the water supply system. Although QMRA has been used to estimate disease burden from water supplies in developed countries, the method has not been evaluated in developing countries where relevant data may be scarce. In this paper, we describe a simplified risk assessment procedure to calculate the disease burden from three reference pathogens--pathogenic Escherichia coli, Cryptosporidium parvum and rotavirus--in water supplies in Kampala, Uganda. The study shows how QMRA can be used in countries with limited data, and that the outcome can provide valuable information for the management of water supplies.

  15. How do we best estimate fluvial flood risk in urban environments? : The case of the city of Eilenburg, Germany

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Longo, Elisa; Tito Aronica, Giuseppe; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Mukolwe, Micah

    2015-04-01

    Flooding is one of the most impactful natural hazards. In particular, by looking at the data of damages from natural hazards in Europe collected in the International Disaster Database (EM-DAT) one can see a significant increase over the past four decades of both frequency of floods and associated economic damages. Similarly, dramatic trends are also found by analyzing other types of flood losses, such as the number of people affected by floods, homeless, injured or killed. To deal with the aforementioned increase of flood risk, more and more efforts are being made to promote integrated flood risk management, for instance, at the end of 2007, the European Community (EC) issued the Flood Directive (F.D.) 2007/60/EC. One of the major innovations was that the F.D. 2007/60/C requires Member State to carry out risk maps and then take appropriate measures to reduce the evaluated risk. The main goal of this research was to estimate flood damaging using a computer code based on a recently developed method (KULTURisk, www.kulturisk.eu) and to compare the estimated damage with the observed one. The study area was the municipality of Eilenburg, which in 2002 was subjected to a destructive flood event. Were produced flood damage maps with new procedures (e.g. KULTURisk) and compared the estimates with observed data. This study showed the possibility to extend the lesson learned with the Eilenburg case study in other similar contexts. The outcomes of this test provided interesting insights about the flood risk mapping, which are expected to contribute to raise awareness to the flooding issues,to plan (structural and/or non-structural) measures of flood risk reduction and to support better land-use and urban planning.

  16. Measured and modelled absolute gravity in Greenland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nielsen, E.; Forsberg, R.; Strykowski, G.

    2012-12-01

    Present day changes in the ice volume in glaciated areas like Greenland will change the load on the Earth and to this change the lithosphere will respond elastically. The Earth also responds to changes in the ice volume over a millennial time scale. This response is due to the viscous properties of the mantle and is known as Glaical Isostatic Adjustment (GIA). Both signals are present in GPS and absolute gravity (AG) measurements and they will give an uncertainty in mass balance estimates calculated from these data types. It is possible to separate the two signals if both gravity and Global Positioning System (GPS) time series are available. DTU Space acquired an A10 absolute gravimeter in 2008. One purpose of this instrument is to establish AG time series in Greenland and the first measurements were conducted in 2009. Since then are 18 different Greenland GPS Network (GNET) stations visited and six of these are visited more then once. The gravity signal consists of three signals; the elastic signal, the viscous signal and the direct attraction from the ice masses. All of these signals can be modelled using various techniques. The viscous signal is modelled by solving the Sea Level Equation with an appropriate ice history and Earth model. The free code SELEN is used for this. The elastic signal is modelled as a convolution of the elastic Greens function for gravity and a model of present day ice mass changes. The direct attraction is the same as the Newtonian attraction and is calculated as this. Here we will present the preliminary results of the AG measurements in Greenland. We will also present modelled estimates of the direct attraction, the elastic and the viscous signals.

  17. MITRA Virtual laboratory for operative application of satellite time series for land degradation risk estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nole, Gabriele; Scorza, Francesco; Lanorte, Antonio; Manzi, Teresa; Lasaponara, Rosa

    2015-04-01

    This paper aims to present the development of a tool to integrate time series from active and passive satellite sensors (such as of MODIS, Vegetation, Landsat, ASTER, COSMO, Sentinel) into a virtual laboratory to support studies on landscape and archaeological landscape, investigation on environmental changes, estimation and monitoring of natural and anthropogenic risks. The virtual laboratory is composed by both data and open source tools specifically developed for the above mentioned applications. Results obtained for investigations carried out using the implemented tools for monitoring land degradation issues and subtle changes ongoing on forestry and natural areas are herein presented. In detail MODIS, SPOT Vegetation and Landsat time series were analyzed comparing results of different statistical analyses and the results integrated with ancillary data and evaluated with field survey. The comparison of the outputs we obtained for the Basilicata Region from satellite data analyses and independent data sets clearly pointed out the reliability for the diverse change analyses we performed, at the pixel level, using MODIS, SPOT Vegetation and Landsat TM data. Next steps are going to be implemented to further advance the current Virtual Laboratory tools, by extending current facilities adding new computational algorithms and applying to other geographic regions. Acknowledgement This research was performed within the framework of the project PO FESR Basilicata 2007/2013 - Progetto di cooperazione internazionale MITRA "Remote Sensing tecnologies for Natural and Cultural heritage Degradation Monitoring for Preservation and valorization" funded by Basilicata Region Reference 1. A. Lanorte, R Lasaponara, M Lovallo, L Telesca 2014 Fisher-Shannon information plane analysis of SPOT/VEGETATION Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series to characterize vegetation recovery after fire disturbance International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and

  18. The influence of spatial resolution on human health risk co-benefit estimates for global climate policy assessments.

    PubMed

    Shih, Hsiu-Ching; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Ma, Hwong-wen

    2015-03-15

    Assessment of the ability of climate policies to produce desired improvements in public health through co-benefits of air pollution reduction can consume resources in both time and research funds. These resources increase significantly as the spatial resolution of models increases. In addition, the level of spatial detail available in macroeconomic models at the heart of climate policy assessments is much lower than that available in traditional human health risk modeling. It is therefore important to determine whether increasing spatial resolution considerably affects risk-based decisions; which kinds of decisions might be affected; and under what conditions they will be affected. Human health risk co-benefits from carbon emissions reductions that bring about concurrent reductions in Particulate Matter (PM10) emissions is therefore examined here at four levels of spatial resolution (Uniform Nation, Uniform Region, Uniform County/city, Health Risk Assessment) in a case study of Taiwan as one of the geographic regions of a global macroeceonomic model, with results that are representative of small, industrialized nations within that global model. A metric of human health risk mortality (YOLL, years of life lost in life expectancy) is compared under assessments ranging from a "uniform simulation" in which there is no spatial resolution of changes in ambient air concentration under a policy to a "highly spatially resolved simulation" (called here Health Risk Assessment). PM10 is chosen in this study as the indicator of air pollution for which risks are assessed due to its significance as a co-benefit of carbon emissions reductions within climate mitigation policy. For the policy examined, the four estimates of mortality in the entirety of Taiwan are 747 YOLL, 834 YOLL, 984 YOLL and 916 YOLL, under Uniform Taiwan, Uniform Region, Uniform County and Health Risk Assessment respectively; or differences of 18%, 9%, 7% if the HRA methodology is taken as the baseline. While

  19. Use of risk projection models to estimate mortality and incidence from radiation-induced breast cancer in screening programs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramos, M.; Ferrer, S.; Villaescusa, J. I.; Verdú, G.; Salas, M. D.; Cuevas, M. D.

    2005-02-01

    The authors report on a method to calculate radiological risks, applicable to breast screening programs and other controlled medical exposures to ionizing radiation. In particular, it has been applied to make a risk assessment in the Valencian Breast Cancer Early Detection Program (VBCEDP) in Spain. This method is based on a parametric approach, through Markov processes, of hazard functions for radio-induced breast cancer incidence and mortality, with mean glandular breast dose, attained age and age-at-exposure as covariates. Excess relative risk functions of breast cancer mortality have been obtained from two different case-control studies exposed to ionizing radiation, with different follow-up time: the Canadian Fluoroscopy Cohort Study (1950-1987) and the Life Span Study (1950-1985 and 1950-1990), whereas relative risk functions for incidence have been obtained from the Life Span Study (1958-1993), the Massachusetts tuberculosis cohorts (1926-1985 and 1970-1985), the New York post-partum mastitis patients (1930-1981) and the Swedish benign breast disease cohort (1958-1987). Relative risks from these cohorts have been transported to the target population undergoing screening in the Valencian Community, a region in Spain with about four and a half million inhabitants. The SCREENRISK software has been developed to estimate radiological detriments in breast screening. Some hypotheses corresponding to different screening conditions have been considered in order to estimate the total risk associated with a woman who takes part in all screening rounds. In the case of the VBCEDP, the total radio-induced risk probability for fatal breast cancer is in a range between [5 × 10-6, 6 × 10-4] versus the natural rate of dying from breast cancer in the Valencian Community which is 9.2 × 10-3. The results show that these indicators could be included in quality control tests and could be adequate for making comparisons between several screening programs.

  20. Estimating the risk of cattle exposure to tuberculosis posed by wild deer relative to badgers in England and Wales.

    PubMed

    Ward, Alastair I; Smith, Graham C; Etherington, Thomas R; Delahay, Richard J

    2009-10-01

    Wild deer populations in Great Britain are expanding in range and probably in numbers, and relatively high prevalence of bovine tuberculosis (bTB, caused by infection with Mycobacterium bovis) in deer occurs locally in parts of southwest England. To evaluate the M. bovis exposure risk posed to cattle by wild deer relative to badgers in England and Wales, we constructed and parameterized a quantitative risk model with the use of information from the literature (on deer densities, activity patterns, bTB epidemiology, and pathology) and contemporary data on deer, cattle, and badger (Meles meles) distribution and abundance. The median relative risk score for each of the four deer species studied--red (Cervus elaphus), fallow (Dama dama), and roe (Capreolus capreolus) deer, and muntjac (Muntiacus reevesi)--was lower than unity (the relative risk set for badgers, the putative main wildlife reservoir of M. bovis in England and Wales). However, the 95th percentiles associated with risk estimates were large, and the upper limits for all four deer species exceeded unity. Although M. bovis exposure risks to cattle from deer at pasture are likely to be lower than those from badgers across most areas of England and Wales where cattle are affected by bTB because these areas coincide with high-density badger populations but not high-density deer populations, we predict the presence of localized areas where relative risks posed by deer may be considerable. Moreover, wherever deer are infected, risks to cattle may be additive to those posed by badgers. There are considerable knowledge gaps associated with bTB in deer, badgers, and cattle, and data available for model parameterization were generally of low quality and high variability, and consequently model output were subject to some uncertainty. Improved estimates of the proportion of time that deer of each species spend at pasture, the likelihood and magnitude of M. bovis excretion, and local badger and deer densities appear

  1. Sexual Reconviction Rates in the United Kingdom and Actuarial Risk Estimates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Craig, Leam A.; Browne, Kevin D.; Stringer, Ian; Hogue, Todd E.

    2008-01-01

    Objective: Assessing the risk of further offending behavior by adult sexual perpetrators of children is highly relevant and important to professionals involved in child protection. Recent progress in assessing risk in sexual offenders has established the validity of actuarial measures, although there continues to be some debate about the…

  2. Estimating risks of de novo kidney diseases after living kidney donation.

    PubMed

    Steiner, R W; Ix, J H; Rifkin, D E; Gert, B

    2014-03-01

    De novo post donation renal diseases, such as glomerulonephritis or diabetic nephropathy, are infrequent and distinct from the loss of GFR at donation that all living kidney donors experience. Medical findings that increase risks of disease (e.g. microscopic hematuria,borderline hemoglobin A1C) often prompt donor refusal by centers. These risk factors are part of more comprehensive risks of low GFR and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) from kidney diseases in the general population that are equally relevant. Such data profile the ages of onset, rates of progression, prevalence and severity of loss of GFR from generically characterized kidney diseases. Kidney diseases typically begin in middle age and take decades to reach ESRD, at a median age of 64. Diabetes produces about half of yearly ESRD and even more lifetime near-ESRD. Such data predict that (1) 10- to 15-year studies will not capture the lifetime risks of post donation ESRD; (2)normal young donors are at demonstrably higher risk than normal older candidates; (3) low-normal predonation GFRs become risk factors for ESRD when kidney diseases arise and (4) donor nephrectomy always increases individual risk. Such population-based risk data apply to all donor candidates and should be used to make acceptance standards and counseling more uniform and defensible.

  3. ESTIMATED SIL LEVELS AND RISK COMPARISONS FOR RELIEF VALVES AS A FUNCTION OF TIME-IN-SERVICE

    SciTech Connect

    Harris, S.

    2012-03-26

    Risk-based inspection methods enable estimation of the probability of spring-operated relief valves failing on demand at the United States Department of Energy's Savannah River Site (SRS) in Aiken, South Carolina. The paper illustrates an approach based on application of the Frechet and Weibull distributions to SRS and Center for Chemical Process Safety (CCPS) Process Equipment Reliability Database (PERD) proof test results. The methodology enables the estimation of ANSI/ISA-84.00.01 Safety Integrity Levels (SILs) as well as the potential change in SIL level due to modification of the maintenance schedule. Current SRS practices are reviewed and recommendations are made for extending inspection intervals. The paper compares risk-based inspection with specific SILs as maintenance intervals are adjusted. Groups of valves are identified in which maintenance times can be extended as well as different groups in which an increased safety margin may be needed.

  4. Interaction analysis of the new pooled cohort equations for 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk estimation: a simulation analysis

    PubMed Central

    Schiros, Chun G; Denney, Thomas S; Gupta, Himanshu

    2015-01-01

    Objectives To evaluate the individual and interacting impacts of the continuous variables (age, total cholesterol (total-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and systolic blood pressure(BP)) on 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk and better understand the pattern of predicted 10-year risk with change of each variable using recently published new pooled cohort equations. Design Simulation analysis was performed across the whole range of the boundary limits suggested for the continuous variables for groupings based on race and gender in the pooled cohort 10-year risk equations. Setting Computer-based simulation analysis. Participants Data were generated by simulation using prespecified variable ranges. Intervention Data simulation and visual display of the hazard analysis. Main outcome measures Interactions of age with other variables were analysed using multidimensional visualisation and hazard analysis. Results In African–American females, due to the interaction of age with HDL-C, treated BP and untreated BP, increasing age may not always increase 10-year risk. Furthermore, in the same cohort, increasing HDL-C level may result in higher 10-year risk for older individuals. For Caucasian females, due to square of Ln (age) term in the equation, the age-risk curve does not monotonically increase with age. The vertex is within the given age range of 40–79 years for a certain range of total-C and HDL-C, indicating that age may not always result in increased predicted 10-year risk. Conclusions The new pooled cohort equations are sophisticated as they take into account the interactions of the continuous variables in predicting 10-year risk. We find situations where the estimated 10-year risk does not follow the general secular trends. The impact of such interesting patterns may be substantial and therefore further exploration is needed as it has direct implications in clinical management for primary prevention. PMID:25941176

  5. Estimating and disclosing the risk of developing Alzheimer’s disease: challenges, controversies and future directions

    PubMed Central

    Roberts, J Scott; Tersegno, Sarah M

    2010-01-01

    With Alzheimer’s disease increasing in prevalence and public awareness, more people are becoming interested in learning their chances of developing this condition. Disclosing Alzheimer’s disease risk has been discouraged because of the limited predictive value of available tests, lack of prevention and treatment options, and concerns regarding potential psychological and social harms. However, challenges to this status quo include the availability of direct-to-consumer health risk information (e.g., genetic susceptibility tests), as well as a growing literature suggesting that people seeking risk information for Alzheimer’s disease through formal education and counseling protocols generally find it useful and do not experience adverse effects. This paper reviews current and potential methods of risk assessment for Alzheimer’s disease, discusses the process and impact of disclosing risk to interested patients and consumers, and considers the practical and ethical challenges in this emerging area. Anticipated future directions are addressed. PMID:20856693

  6. Estimating Toxicity-Related Biological Pathway Altering Doses for High-Throughput Chemical Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    We describe a framework for estimating the human dose at which a chemical significantly alters a biological pathway in vivo, making use of in vitro assay data and an in vitro derived pharmacokinetic model, coupled with estimates of population variability and uncertainty. The q...

  7. [Investigating into whether systematic fetal weight estimation by ultrasound in the delivery room increases the risk of cesarean delivery].

    PubMed

    Dimassi, Kaouther; Ajroudi, Meryam; Saidi, Olfa; Salem, Safa; Robbana, Monia; Triki, Amel; Gara, Mohammed Faouzi

    2016-01-01

    Ultrasound is a valuable tool commonly used in the delivery room. It has multiple applications. The objective of this study was to investigate whether systematic fetal weight estimation by ultrasound in the delivery room increases the risk of cesarean delivery. Monocentric cohort study. All parturients with singleton pregnancies who gave birth full-term at = 39 weeks were enrolled in the study. We excluded all patients with a contraindication to vaginal birth as well as those in whom fetal weight estimation (FWE) by ultrasound on day of delivery was deemed necessary in making obstetric decision. Parturients enrolled in the study were divided into two groups: - G1: parturients who systematically underwent FWE - G2: parturients who never underwent FWE. We compared cesarean delivery rate with adjustment for potentially confounding factors according to logistic regression. 838 parturients were enrolled in the study. Prematurity, FWE and weight at birth were risk factors for cesarean delivery. After adjustment for confounding factors, FWE by ultrasound systematically performed in G1 proved to be an independent risk factor for cesarean delivery with OR = 3.8 (CI 95% = [2.67 to 5.48]). This risk increased significantly with estimated fetal weight (EFW): OR=2,27(CI 95;1,15-4,47; p=0.018) for 3500 < EFW < 4000g and OR = 10.64 (CI 95; 4.28 to 26.41; p < 0.001 ) for EFW > 4000 g. FWE by ultrasound systematically performed in the delivery room represents an independent and potentially modifiable risk factor for cesarean delivery.

  8. Improved radiation dosimetry/risk estimates to facilitate environmental management of plutonium contaminated sites. 1998 annual progress report

    SciTech Connect

    Scott, B.R.

    1998-06-01

    'The objective of this research is to evaluate distributions of possible alpha radiation doses to the lung, bone, and liver and associated health-risk distributions for plutonium (Pu) inhalation-exposure scenarios relevant to environmental management of PuO{sub 2}-contaminated sites. Currently available dosimetry/risk models do not apply to exposure scenarios where, at most, a small number of highly radioactive PuO{sub 2} particles are inhaled (stochastic exposure [SE] paradigm). For the SE paradigm, risk distributions are more relevant than point estimates of risk. The focus of the research is on the SE paradigm and on high specific activity, alpha-emitting (HSA-aE) particles such as 238 PuO{sub 2} . The scientific goal is to develop a stochastic respiratory tract dosimetry/risk computer model for evaluating the desired absorbed dose distributions and associated health-risk distributions, for Department of Energy (DOE) workers and members of the public. This report summarizes results after 1 year of a 2-year project.'

  9. A coupled stochastic/deterministic model to estimate the evolution of the risk of water contamination by pesticides across Canada.

    PubMed

    Gagnon, Patrick; Sheedy, Claudia; Farenhorst, Annemieke; McQueen, D A Ross; Cessna, Allan J; Newlands, Nathaniel K

    2014-07-01

    Periodic assessments of the risk of water contamination by pesticides help decision makers improve the sustainability of agricultural management practices. In Canada, when evaluating the risk of water contamination by pesticides, 2 main constraints arise. First, because the area of interest is large, a pesticide transport model with low computational running time is mandatory. Second, some relevant input data for simulations are not known, and most are known only at coarse scale. This study aims to develop a robust methodology to estimate the evolution of the risk of water contamination by pesticides across Canada. To circumvent the 2 aforementioned issues, we constructed a stochastic model and coupled it to the 1-dimensional pesticide fate model Pesticide Root Zone Model (PRZM). To account for input data uncertainty, the stochastic model uses a Monte Carlo approach to generate several pesticide application scenarios and to randomly select PRZM parameter values. One hundred different scenarios were simulated for each of over 2000 regions (Soil Landscapes of Canada [SLC] polygons) for the years 1981 and 2006. Overall, the results indicated that in those regions in which the risk increased from 1981 to 2006, the increase in risk was mainly attributable to the increased area treated by pesticides or an increase in the number of days with runoff. More specifically, this work identifies the areas at higher risk, where further analyses with finer-scale input data should be performed. The model is specific for Canadian data, but the framework could be adapted for other large countries.

  10. Risk estimation to human health caused by the mercury content of Sushi and Sashimi sold in Japanese restaurants in Brazil.

    PubMed

    Alves, Jeanne Clécia; Lima de Paiva, Esther; Milani, Raquel Fernanda; Bearzoti, Eduardo; Morgano, Marcelo Antonio; Diego Quintaes, Késia

    2017-03-08

    Although fish is a healthy alternative for meat, it can be a vehicle for mercury (Hg), including in its most toxic organic form, methylmercury (MeHg). The objective of the present study was to estimate the risk to human health caused by the consumption of sushi and sashimi as commercialized by Japanese food restaurants in the city of Campinas (SP, Brazil). The total Hg content was determined by atomic absorption spectrometry with thermal decomposition and amalgamation, and the MeHg content calculated considering that 90% of the total Hg is in the organic form. The health risk was estimated from the values for the provisional tolerable weekly ingestion (PTWI) by both adults and children. The mean concentrations for total Hg were: 147.99, 6.13, and 3.42 µg kg(-1) in the tuna, kani, and salmon sushi samples, respectively, and 589.09, 85.09, and 11.38 µg kg(-1) in the tuna, octopus and salmon sashimi samples, respectively. The tuna samples showed the highest Hg concentrations. One portion of tuna sashimi exceeded the PTWI value for MeHg established for children and adults. The estimate of risk for human health indicated that the level of toxicity depended on the type of fish and size of the portion consumed.

  11. Multicentre validation of the Geneva Risk Score for hospitalised medical patients at risk of venous thromboembolism. Explicit ASsessment of Thromboembolic RIsk and Prophylaxis for Medical PATients in SwitzErland (ESTIMATE).

    PubMed

    Nendaz, M; Spirk, D; Kucher, N; Aujesky, D; Hayoz, D; Beer, J H; Husmann, M; Frauchiger, B; Korte, W; Wuillemin, W A; Jäger, K; Righini, M; Bounameaux, H

    2014-03-03

    There is a need to validate risk assessment tools for hospitalised medical patients at risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE). We investigated whether a predefined cut-off of the Geneva Risk Score, as compared to the Padua Prediction Score, accurately distinguishes low-risk from high-risk patients regardless of the use of thromboprophylaxis. In the multicentre, prospective Explicit ASsessment of Thromboembolic RIsk and Prophylaxis for Medical PATients in SwitzErland (ESTIMATE) cohort study, 1,478 hospitalised medical patients were enrolled of whom 637 (43%) did not receive thromboprophylaxis. The primary endpoint was symptomatic VTE or VTE-related death at 90 days. The study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01277536. According to the Geneva Risk Score, the cumulative r