Science.gov

Sample records for absolute risk models

  1. A model for predicting individuals' absolute risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma: Moving toward tailored screening and prevention.

    PubMed

    Xie, Shao-Hua; Lagergren, Jesper

    2016-06-15

    Esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) is characterized by rapidly increasing incidence and poor prognosis, stressing the need for preventive and early detection strategies. We used data from a nationwide population-based case-control study, which included 189 incident cases of EAC and 820 age- and sex-matched control participants, from 1995 through 1997 in Sweden. We developed risk prediction models based on unconditional logistic regression. Candidate predictors included established and readily identifiable risk factors for EAC. The performance of model was assessed by the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) with cross-validation. The final model could explain 94% of all case patients with EAC (94% population attributable risk) and included terms for gastro-esophageal reflux symptoms or use of antireflux medication, body mass index (BMI), tobacco smoking, duration of living with a partner, previous diagnoses of esophagitis and diaphragmatic hernia and previous surgery for esophagitis, diaphragmatic hernia or severe reflux or gastric or duodenal ulcer. The AUC was 0.84 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.81-0.87) and slightly lower after cross-validation. A simpler model, based only on reflux symptoms or use of antireflux medication, BMI and tobacco smoking could explain 91% of the case patients with EAC and had an AUC of 0.82 (95% CI 0.78-0.85). These EAC prediction models showed good discriminative accuracy, but need to be validated in other populations. These models have the potential for future use in identifying individuals with high absolute risk of EAC in the population, who may be considered for endoscopic screening and targeted prevention. PMID:26756848

  2. Blood pressure targets and absolute cardiovascular risk.

    PubMed

    Odutayo, Ayodele; Rahimi, Kazem; Hsiao, Allan J; Emdin, Connor A

    2015-08-01

    In the Eighth Joint National Committee guideline on hypertension, the threshold for the initiation of blood pressure-lowering treatment for elderly adults (≥60 years) without chronic kidney disease or diabetes mellitus was raised from 140/90 mm Hg to 150/90 mm Hg. However, the committee was not unanimous in this decision, particularly because a large proportion of adults ≥60 years may be at high cardiovascular risk. On the basis of Eighth Joint National Committee guideline, we sought to determine the absolute 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease among these adults through analyzing the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2005-2012). The primary outcome measure was the proportion of adults who were at ≥20% predicted absolute cardiovascular risk and above goals for the Seventh Joint National Committee guideline but reclassified as at target under the Eighth Joint National Committee guideline (reclassified). The Framingham General Cardiovascular Disease Risk Score was used. From 2005 to 2012, the surveys included 12 963 adults aged 30 to 74 years with blood pressure measurements, of which 914 were reclassified based on the guideline. Among individuals reclassified as not in need of additional treatment, the proportion of adults 60 to 74 years without chronic kidney disease or diabetes mellitus at ≥20% absolute risk was 44.8%. This corresponds to 0.8 million adults. The proportion at high cardiovascular risk remained sizable among adults who were not receiving blood pressure-lowering treatment. Taken together, a sizable proportion of reclassified adults 60 to 74 years without chronic kidney disease or diabetes mellitus was at ≥20% absolute cardiovascular risk. PMID:26056340

  3. Population-based absolute risk estimation with survey data.

    PubMed

    Kovalchik, Stephanie A; Pfeiffer, Ruth M

    2014-04-01

    Absolute risk is the probability that a cause-specific event occurs in a given time interval in the presence of competing events. We present methods to estimate population-based absolute risk from a complex survey cohort that can accommodate multiple exposure-specific competing risks. The hazard function for each event type consists of an individualized relative risk multiplied by a baseline hazard function, which is modeled nonparametrically or parametrically with a piecewise exponential model. An influence method is used to derive a Taylor-linearized variance estimate for the absolute risk estimates. We introduce novel measures of the cause-specific influences that can guide modeling choices for the competing event components of the model. To illustrate our methodology, we build and validate cause-specific absolute risk models for cardiovascular and cancer deaths using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Our applications demonstrate the usefulness of survey-based risk prediction models for predicting health outcomes and quantifying the potential impact of disease prevention programs at the population level. PMID:23686614

  4. Assessing absolute changes in breast cancer risk due to modifiable risk factors.

    PubMed

    Quante, Anne S; Herz, Julia; Whittemore, Alice S; Fischer, Christine; Strauch, Konstantin; Terry, Mary Beth

    2015-07-01

    Clinical risk assessment involves absolute risk measures, but information on modifying risk and preventing cancer is often communicated in relative terms. To illustrate the potential impact of risk factor modification in model-based risk assessment, we evaluated the performance of the IBIS Breast Cancer Risk Evaluation Tool, with and without current body mass index (BMI), for predicting future breast cancer occurrence in a prospective cohort of 665 postmenopausal women. Overall, IBIS's accuracy (overall agreement between observed and assigned risks) and discrimination (AUC concordance between assigned risks and outcomes) were similar with and without the BMI information. However, in women with BMI > 25 kg/m(2), adding BMI information improved discrimination (AUC = 63.9 % and 61.4 % with and without BMI, P < 0.001). The model-assigned 10-year risk difference for a woman with high (27 kg/m(2)) versus low (21 kg/m(2)) BMI was only 0.3 % for a woman with neither affected first-degree relatives nor BRCA1 mutation, compared to 4.5 % for a mutation carrier with three such relatives. This contrast illustrates the value of using information on modifiable risk factors in risk assessment and in sharing information with patients of their absolute risks with and without modifiable risk factors. PMID:26012643

  5. Methodology to predict long-term cancer survival from short-term data using Tobacco Cancer Risk and Absolute Cancer Cure models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mould, R. F.; Lederman, M.; Tai, P.; Wong, J. K. M.

    2002-11-01

    Three parametric statistical models have been fully validated for cancer of the larynx for the prediction of long-term 15, 20 and 25 year cancer-specific survival fractions when short-term follow-up data was available for just 1-2 years after the end of treatment of the last patient. In all groups of cases the treatment period was only 5 years. Three disease stage groups were studied, T1N0, T2N0 and T3N0. The models are the Standard Lognormal (SLN) first proposed by Boag (1949 J. R. Stat. Soc. Series B 11 15-53) but only ever fully validated for cancer of the cervix, Mould and Boag (1975 Br. J. Cancer 32 529-50), and two new models which have been termed Tobacco Cancer Risk (TCR) and Absolute Cancer Cure (ACC). In each, the frequency distribution of survival times of defined groups of cancer deaths is lognormally distributed: larynx only (SLN), larynx and lung (TCR) and all cancers (ACC). All models each have three unknown parameters but it was possible to estimate a value for the lognormal parameter S a priori. By reduction to two unknown parameters the model stability has been improved. The material used to validate the methodology consisted of case histories of 965 patients, all treated during the period 1944-1968 by Dr Manuel Lederman of the Royal Marsden Hospital, London, with follow-up to 1988. This provided a follow-up range of 20- 44 years and enabled predicted long-term survival fractions to be compared with the actual survival fractions, calculated by the Kaplan and Meier (1958 J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 53 457-82) method. The TCR and ACC models are better than the SLN model and for a maximum short-term follow-up of 6 years, the 20 and 25 year survival fractions could be predicted. Therefore the numbers of follow-up years saved are respectively 14 years and 19 years. Clinical trial results using the TCR and ACC models can thus be analysed much earlier than currently possible. Absolute cure from cancer was also studied, using not only the prediction models which

  6. Absolute Risk Aversion and the Returns to Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brunello, Giorgio

    2002-01-01

    Uses 1995 Italian household income and wealth survey to measure individual absolute risk aversion of 1,583 married Italian male household heads. Uses this measure as an instrument for attained education in a standard-log earnings equation. Finds that the IV estimate of the marginal return to schooling is much higher than the ordinary least squares…

  7. Bivariate random effects models for meta-analysis of comparative studies with binary outcomes: methods for the absolute risk difference and relative risk.

    PubMed

    Chu, Haitao; Nie, Lei; Chen, Yong; Huang, Yi; Sun, Wei

    2012-12-01

    Multivariate meta-analysis is increasingly utilised in biomedical research to combine data of multiple comparative clinical studies for evaluating drug efficacy and safety profile. When the probability of the event of interest is rare, or when the individual study sample sizes are small, a substantial proportion of studies may not have any event of interest. Conventional meta-analysis methods either exclude such studies or include them through ad hoc continuality correction by adding an arbitrary positive value to each cell of the corresponding 2 × 2 tables, which may result in less accurate conclusions. Furthermore, different continuity corrections may result in inconsistent conclusions. In this article, we discuss a bivariate Beta-binomial model derived from Sarmanov family of bivariate distributions and a bivariate generalised linear mixed effects model for binary clustered data to make valid inferences. These bivariate random effects models use all available data without ad hoc continuity corrections, and accounts for the potential correlation between treatment (or exposure) and control groups within studies naturally. We then utilise the bivariate random effects models to reanalyse two recent meta-analysis data sets. PMID:21177306

  8. Revisiting absolute and relative judgments in the WITNESS model.

    PubMed

    Fife, Dustin; Perry, Colton; Gronlund, Scott D

    2014-04-01

    The WITNESS model (Clark in Applied Cognitive Psychology 17:629-654, 2003) provides a theoretical framework with which to investigate the factors that contribute to eyewitness identification decisions. One key factor involves the contributions of absolute versus relative judgments. An absolute contribution is determined by the degree of match between an individual lineup member and memory for the perpetrator; a relative contribution involves the degree to which the best-matching lineup member is a better match to memory than the remaining lineup members. In WITNESS, the proportional contributions of relative versus absolute judgments are governed by the values of the decision weight parameters. We conducted an exploration of the WITNESS model's parameter space to determine the identifiability of these relative/absolute decision weight parameters, and compared the results to a restricted version of the model that does not vary the decision weight parameters. This exploration revealed that the decision weights in WITNESS are difficult to identify: Data often can be fit equally well by setting the decision weights to nearly any value and compensating with a criterion adjustment. Clark, Erickson, and Breneman (Law and Human Behavior 35:364-380, 2011) claimed to demonstrate a theoretical basis for the superiority of lineup decisions that are based on absolute contributions, but the relationship between the decision weights and the criterion weakens this claim. These findings necessitate reconsidering the role of the relative/absolute judgment distinction in eyewitness decision making. PMID:23943556

  9. A general relativistic model for free-fall absolute gravimeters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tan, Yu-Jie; Shao, Cheng-Gang; Li, Jia; Hu, Zhong-Kun

    2016-04-01

    Although the relativistic manifestations of gravitational fields in gravimetry were first studied 40 years ago, the relativistic effects combined with free-fall absolute gravimeters have rarely been considered. In light of this, we present a general relativistic model for free-fall absolute gravimeters in a local-Fermi coordinates system, where we focus on effects related to the measuring devices: relativistic transverse Doppler effects, gravitational redshift effects and Earth’s rotation effects. Based on this model, a general relativistic expression of the measured gravity acceleration is obtained.

  10. External Validation of the Garvan Nomograms for Predicting Absolute Fracture Risk: The Tromsø Study

    PubMed Central

    Ahmed, Luai A.; Nguyen, Nguyen D.; Bjørnerem, Åshild; Joakimsen, Ragnar M.; Jørgensen, Lone; Størmer, Jan; Bliuc, Dana; Center, Jacqueline R.; Eisman, John A.; Nguyen, Tuan V.; Emaus, Nina

    2014-01-01

    Background Absolute risk estimation is a preferred approach for assessing fracture risk and treatment decision making. This study aimed to evaluate and validate the predictive performance of the Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator in a Norwegian cohort. Methods The analysis included 1637 women and 1355 aged 60+ years from the Tromsø study. All incident fragility fractures between 2001 and 2009 were registered. The predicted probabilities of non-vertebral osteoporotic and hip fractures were determined using models with and without BMD. The discrimination and calibration of the models were assessed. Reclassification analysis was used to compare the models performance. Results The incidence of osteoporotic and hip fracture was 31.5 and 8.6 per 1000 population in women, respectively; in men the corresponding incidence was 12.2 and 5.1. The predicted 5-year and 10-year probability of fractures was consistently higher in the fracture group than the non-fracture group for all models. The 10-year predicted probabilities of hip fracture in those with fracture was 2.8 (women) to 3.1 times (men) higher than those without fracture. There was a close agreement between predicted and observed risk in both sexes and up to the fifth quintile. Among those in the highest quintile of risk, the models over-estimated the risk of fracture. Models with BMD performed better than models with body weight in correct classification of risk in individuals with and without fracture. The overall net decrease in reclassification of the model with weight compared to the model with BMD was 10.6% (p = 0.008) in women and 17.2% (p = 0.001) in men for osteoporotic fractures, and 13.3% (p = 0.07) in women and 17.5% (p = 0.09) in men for hip fracture. Conclusions The Garvan Fracture Risk Calculator is valid and clinically useful in identifying individuals at high risk of fracture. The models with BMD performed better than those with body weight in fracture risk prediction. PMID:25255221

  11. Biosafety Risk Assessment Model

    SciTech Connect

    2011-05-27

    Software tool based on a structured methodology for conducting laboratory biosafety risk assessments by biosafety experts. Software is based upon an MCDA scheme and uses peer reviewed criteria and weights. The software was developed upon Microsoft’s .net framework. The methodology defines likelihood and consequence of a laboratory exposure for thirteen unique scenarios and provides numerical relative risks for each of the relevant thirteen. The software produces 2-d graphs reflecting the relative risk and a sensitivity analysis which highlights the overall importance of each factor. The software works as a set of questions with absolute scales and uses a weighted additive model to calculate the likelihood and consequence.

  12. Realized volatility and absolute return volatility: a comparison indicating market risk.

    PubMed

    Zheng, Zeyu; Qiao, Zhi; Takaishi, Tetsuya; Stanley, H Eugene; Li, Baowen

    2014-01-01

    Measuring volatility in financial markets is a primary challenge in the theory and practice of risk management and is essential when developing investment strategies. Although the vast literature on the topic describes many different models, two nonparametric measurements have emerged and received wide use over the past decade: realized volatility and absolute return volatility. The former is strongly favored in the financial sector and the latter by econophysicists. We examine the memory and clustering features of these two methods and find that both enable strong predictions. We compare the two in detail and find that although realized volatility has a better short-term effect that allows predictions of near-future market behavior, absolute return volatility is easier to calculate and, as a risk indicator, has approximately the same sensitivity as realized volatility. Our detailed empirical analysis yields valuable guidelines for both researchers and market participants because it provides a significantly clearer comparison of the strengths and weaknesses of the two methods. PMID:25054439

  13. Electroweak absolute, meta-, and thermal stability in neutrino mass models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lindner, Manfred; Patel, Hiren H.; Radovčić, Branimir

    2016-04-01

    We analyze the stability of the electroweak vacuum in neutrino mass models containing right-handed neutrinos or fermionic isotriplets. In addition to considering absolute stability, we place limits on the Yukawa couplings of new fermions based on metastability and thermal stability in the early Universe. Our results reveal that the upper limits on the neutrino Yukawa couplings can change significantly when the top quark mass is allowed to vary within the experimental range of uncertainty in its determination.

  14. Decision-making using absolute cardiovascular risk reduction and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios: a case study

    PubMed Central

    Ker, J A; Oosthuizen, H; Rheeder, P

    2008-01-01

    Summary Background Many clinical guidelines have adopted a multifactorial cardiovascular risk assessment to identify high-risk individuals for treatment. The Framingham risk chart is a widely used risk engine to calculate the absolute cardiovascular risk of an individual. Cost-effective analyses are typically used to evaluate therapeutic strategies, but it is more problematic for a clinician when faced with alternative therapeutic strategies to calculate cost effectiveness. Aim We used a single simulated-patient model to explore the effect of different drug treatments on the calculated absolute cardiovascular risk. Methods The Framingham risk score was calculated on a hypothetical patient, and drug treatment was initiated. After every drug introduced, the score was recalculated. Single-exit pricing of the various drugs in South Africa was used to calculate the cost of reducing predicted cardiovascular risk. Results The cost-effective ratio of an antihypertensive treatment strategy was calculated to be R21.35 per percentage of risk reduction. That of a statin treatment strategy was R22.93 per percentage of risk reduction. Using a high-dose statin, the cost-effective ratio was R12.81 per percentage of risk reduction. Combining the antihypertensive and statin strategy demonstrated a cost-effective ratio of R23.84 per percentage of risk reduction. A combination of several drugs enabled the hypothetical patient to reduce the risk to 14% at a cost-effective ratio of R17.18 per percentage of risk reduction. Conclusion This model demonstrates a method to compare different therapeutic strategies to reduce cardiovascular risk with their cost-effective ratios. PMID:18516355

  15. Measured and modelled absolute gravity changes in Greenland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nielsen, J. Emil; Forsberg, Rene; Strykowski, Gabriel

    2014-01-01

    In glaciated areas, the Earth is responding to the ongoing changes of the ice sheets, a response known as glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). GIA can be investigated through observations of gravity change. For the ongoing assessment of the ice sheets mass balance, where satellite data are used, the study of GIA is important since it acts as an error source. GIA consists of three signals as seen by a gravimeter on the surface of the Earth. These signals are investigated in this study. The ICE-5G ice history and recently developed ice models of present day changes are used to model the gravity change in Greenland. The result is compared with the initial measurements of absolute gravity (AG) change at selected Greenland Network (GNET) sites.

  16. Biosafety Risk Assessment Model

    2011-05-27

    Software tool based on a structured methodology for conducting laboratory biosafety risk assessments by biosafety experts. Software is based upon an MCDA scheme and uses peer reviewed criteria and weights. The software was developed upon Microsoft’s .net framework. The methodology defines likelihood and consequence of a laboratory exposure for thirteen unique scenarios and provides numerical relative risks for each of the relevant thirteen. The software produces 2-d graphs reflecting the relative risk and a sensitivitymore » analysis which highlights the overall importance of each factor. The software works as a set of questions with absolute scales and uses a weighted additive model to calculate the likelihood and consequence.« less

  17. Lunar eclipse photometry: absolute luminance measurements and modeling.

    PubMed

    Hernitschek, Nina; Schmidt, Elmar; Vollmer, Michael

    2008-12-01

    The Moon's time-dependent luminance was determined during the 9 February 1990 and 3 March 2007 total lunar eclipses by using calibrated, industry standard photometers. After the results were corrected to unit air mass and to standard distances for both Moon and Sun, an absolute calibration was accomplished by using the Sun's known luminance and a pre-eclipse lunar albedo of approximately 13.5%. The measured minimum level of brightness in the total phase of both eclipses was relatively high, namely -3.32 m(vis) and -1.7 m(vis), which hints at the absence of pronounced stratospheric aerosol. The light curves were modeled in such a way as to let the Moon move through an artificial Earth shadow composed of a multitude of disk and ring zones, containing a relative luminance data set from an atmospheric radiative transfer calculation. PMID:19037352

  18. Predicting Absolute Risk of Type 2 Diabetes Using Age and Waist Circumference Values in an Aboriginal Australian Community

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Objectives To predict in an Australian Aboriginal community, the 10-year absolute risk of type 2 diabetes associated with waist circumference and age on baseline examination. Method A sample of 803 diabetes-free adults (82.3% of the age-eligible population) from baseline data of participants collected from 1992 to 1998 were followed-up for up to 20 years till 2012. The Cox-proportional hazard model was used to estimate the effects of waist circumference and other risk factors, including age, smoking and alcohol consumption status, of males and females on prediction of type 2 diabetes, identified through subsequent hospitalisation data during the follow-up period. The Weibull regression model was used to calculate the absolute risk estimates of type 2 diabetes with waist circumference and age as predictors. Results Of 803 participants, 110 were recorded as having developed type 2 diabetes, in subsequent hospitalizations over a follow-up of 12633.4 person-years. Waist circumference was strongly associated with subsequent diagnosis of type 2 diabetes with P<0.0001 for both genders and remained statistically significant after adjusting for confounding factors. Hazard ratios of type 2 diabetes associated with 1 standard deviation increase in waist circumference were 1.7 (95%CI 1.3 to 2.2) for males and 2.1 (95%CI 1.7 to 2.6) for females. At 45 years of age with baseline waist circumference of 100 cm, a male had an absolute diabetic risk of 10.9%, while a female had a 14.3% risk of the disease. Conclusions The constructed model predicts the 10-year absolute diabetes risk in an Aboriginal Australian community. It is simple and easily understood and will help identify individuals at risk of diabetes in relation to waist circumference values. Our findings on the relationship between waist circumference and diabetes on gender will be useful for clinical consultation, public health education and establishing WC cut-off points for Aboriginal Australians. PMID:25876058

  19. Absolute and Comparative Cancer Risk Perceptions Among Smokers in Two Cities in China

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Introduction: Knowledge about health effects of smoking motivates quit attempts and sustained abstinence among smokers and also predicts greater acceptance of tobacco control efforts such as cigarette taxes and public smoking bans. We examined whether smokers in China, the world’s largest consumer of cigarettes, recognized their heightened personal risk of cancer relative to nonsmokers. Methods: A sample of Chinese people (N = 2,517; 555 current smokers) from 2 cities (Beijing and Hefei) estimated their personal risk of developing cancer, both in absolute terms (overall likelihood) and in comparative terms (relative to similarly aged people). Results: Controlling for demographics, smokers judged themselves to be at significantly lower risk of cancer than did nonsmokers on the comparative measure. No significant difference emerged between smokers and nonsmokers in absolute estimates. Conclusions: Smokers in China did not recognize their heightened personal risk of cancer, possibly reflecting ineffective warning labels on cigarette packs, a positive affective climate associated with smoking in China, and beliefs that downplay personal vulnerability among smokers (e.g., I don’t smoke enough to increase my cancer risk; I smoke high-quality cigarettes that won’t cause cancer). PMID:24668289

  20. Age Dependent Absolute Plate and Plume Motion Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heaton, D. E.; Koppers, A. A. P.

    2015-12-01

    Current absolute plate motion (APM) models from 80 - 0 Ma are constrained by the location of mantle plume related hotspot seamounts, in particular those of the Hawaiian-Emperor and Louisville seamount trails. Originally the 'fixed' hotspot hypothesis was developed to explain past plate motion based on linear age progressive intra-plate volcanism. However, now that 'moving' hotspots are accepted, it is becoming clear that APM models need to be corrected for individual plume motion vectors. For older seamount trails that were active between roughly 50 and 80 Ma the APM models that use 'fixed' hotspots overestimate the measured age progression in those trails, while APM models corrected for 'moving' hotspots underestimate those age progressions. These mismatches are due to both a lack of reliable ages in the older portions of both the Hawaii and Louisville seamount trails and insufficient APM modeling constraints from other seamount trails in the Pacific Basin. Seamounts are difficult to sample and analyze because many are hydrothermally altered and have low potassium concentrations. New 40Ar/39Ar Age results from International Ocean Drilling Project (IODP) Expedition 330 Sites U1372 (n=18), U1375 (n=3), U1376 (n=15) and U1377 (n=7) aid in constraining the oldest end of the Louisville Seamount trail. A significant observation in this study is that the age range recovered in the drill cores match the range of ages that were acquired on dredging cruises at the same seamounts (e.g. Koppers et al., 2011). This is important for determining the inception age of a seamount. The sections recovered from IODP EXP 330 are in-situ volcanoclastic breccia and lava flows. Comparing the seismic interpretations of Louisville guyots (Contreras-Reyes et al., 2010), Holes U1372, U1373 and U1374 penetrated the extrusive and volcanoclastic sections of the seamount. The ages obtained are consistent over stratigraphic intervals >100-450 m thick, providing evidence that these seamounts

  1. Mathematical Model for Absolute Magnetic Measuring Systems in Industrial Applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fügenschuh, Armin; Fügenschuh, Marzena; Ludszuweit, Marina; Mojsic, Aleksandar; Sokół, Joanna

    2015-09-01

    Scales for measuring systems are either based on incremental or absolute measuring methods. Incremental scales need to initialize a measurement cycle at a reference point. From there, the position is computed by counting increments of a periodic graduation. Absolute methods do not need reference points, since the position can be read directly from the scale. The positions on the complete scales are encoded using two incremental tracks with different graduation. We present a new method for absolute measuring using only one track for position encoding up to micrometre range. Instead of the common perpendicular magnetic areas, we use a pattern of trapezoidal magnetic areas, to store more complex information. For positioning, we use the magnetic field where every position is characterized by a set of values measured by a hall sensor array. We implement a method for reconstruction of absolute positions from the set of unique measured values. We compare two patterns with respect to uniqueness, accuracy, stability and robustness of positioning. We discuss how stability and robustness are influenced by different errors during the measurement in real applications and how those errors can be compensated.

  2. Comparative assessment of absolute cardiovascular disease risk characterization from non-laboratory-based risk assessment in South African populations

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background All rigorous primary cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention guidelines recommend absolute CVD risk scores to identify high- and low-risk patients, but laboratory testing can be impractical in low- and middle-income countries. The purpose of this study was to compare the ranking performance of a simple, non-laboratory-based risk score to laboratory-based scores in various South African populations. Methods We calculated and compared 10-year CVD (or coronary heart disease (CHD)) risk for 14,772 adults from thirteen cross-sectional South African populations (data collected from 1987 to 2009). Risk characterization performance for the non-laboratory-based score was assessed by comparing rankings of risk with six laboratory-based scores (three versions of Framingham risk, SCORE for high- and low-risk countries, and CUORE) using Spearman rank correlation and percent of population equivalently characterized as ‘high’ or ‘low’ risk. Total 10-year non-laboratory-based risk of CVD death was also calculated for a representative cross-section from the 1998 South African Demographic Health Survey (DHS, n = 9,379) to estimate the national burden of CVD mortality risk. Results Spearman correlation coefficients for the non-laboratory-based score with the laboratory-based scores ranged from 0.88 to 0.986. Using conventional thresholds for CVD risk (10% to 20% 10-year CVD risk), 90% to 92% of men and 94% to 97% of women were equivalently characterized as ‘high’ or ‘low’ risk using the non-laboratory-based and Framingham (2008) CVD risk score. These results were robust across the six risk scores evaluated and the thirteen cross-sectional datasets, with few exceptions (lower agreement between the non-laboratory-based and Framingham (1991) CHD risk scores). Approximately 18% of adults in the DHS population were characterized as ‘high CVD risk’ (10-year CVD death risk >20%) using the non-laboratory-based score. Conclusions We found a high level of

  3. The Ethics of Information: Absolute Risk Reduction and Patient Understanding of Screening

    PubMed Central

    Meslin, Eric M.

    2008-01-01

    Some experts have argued that patients should routinely be told the specific magnitude and absolute probability of potential risks and benefits of screening tests. This position is motivated by the idea that framing risk information in ways that are less precise violates the ethical principle of respect for autonomy and its application in informed consent or shared decision-making. In this Perspective, we consider a number of problems with this view that have not been adequately addressed. The most important challenges stem from the danger that patients will misunderstand the information or have irrational responses to it. Any initiative in this area should take such factors into account and should consider carefully how to apply the ethical principles of respect for autonomy and beneficence. PMID:18421509

  4. Breast Cancer Risk Assessment SAS Macro (Gail Model)

    Cancer.gov

    A SAS macro (commonly referred to as the Gail Model) that projects absolute risk of invasive breast cancer according to NCI’s Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (BCRAT) algorithm for specified race/ethnic groups and age intervals.

  5. The Influence of Absolute and Comparative Risk Perceptions on Cervical Cancer Screening and the Mediating Role of Cancer Worry.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Xinyan; Nan, Xiaoli

    2016-01-01

    This research investigates the interrelationships between cancer risk perceptions (absolute and comparative risk perceptions), cancer worry, and cervical cancer screening. Using a nationally representative survey data set (N = 2,304) from the 2012 Health Information National Trends Survey Circle 1, we found that although neither absolute risk perceptions nor comparative risk perceptions exerted a direct impact on women's compliance with the cervical cancer screening recommendation (i.e., that women ages 21 to 65 obtain Pap smear every 3 years; U.S. Preventive Services Task Force, 2012 ), both types of risk perceptions had an indirect effect on cervical cancer screening through the mediation of cancer worry. These results suggest a primal role of affect in health decision making. Implications of the findings for cancer risk communication are discussed. PMID:26312444

  6. Relative and Absolute Fit Evaluation in Cognitive Diagnosis Modeling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chen, Jinsong; de la Torre, Jimmy; Zhang, Zao

    2013-01-01

    As with any psychometric models, the validity of inferences from cognitive diagnosis models (CDMs) determines the extent to which these models can be useful. For inferences from CDMs to be valid, it is crucial that the fit of the model to the data is ascertained. Based on a simulation study, this study investigated the sensitivity of various fit…

  7. Radiation risk estimation models

    SciTech Connect

    Hoel, D.G.

    1987-11-01

    Cancer risk models and their relationship to ionizing radiation are discussed. There are many model assumptions and risk factors that have a large quantitative impact on the cancer risk estimates. Other health end points such as mental retardation may be an even more serious risk than cancer for those with in utero exposures. 8 references.

  8. Ridge-spotting: A new test for Pacific absolute plate motion models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wessel, Paul; Müller, R. Dietmar

    2016-06-01

    Relative plate motions provide high-resolution descriptions of motions of plates relative to other plates. Yet geodynamically, motions of plates relative to the mantle are required since such motions can be attributed to forces (e.g., slab pull and ridge push) acting upon the plates. Various reference frames have been proposed, such as the hot spot reference frame, to link plate motions to a mantle framework. Unfortunately, both accuracy and precision of absolute plate motion models lag behind those of relative plate motion models. Consequently, it is paramount to use relative plate motions in improving our understanding of absolute plate motions. A new technique called "ridge-spotting" combines absolute and relative plate motions and examines the viability of proposed absolute plate motion models. We test the method on six published Pacific absolute plate motions models, including fixed and moving hot spot models as well as a geodynamically derived model. Ridge-spotting reconstructs the Pacific-Farallon and Pacific-Antarctica ridge systems over the last 80 Myr. All six absolute plate motion models predict large amounts of northward migration and monotonic clockwise rotation for the Pacific-Farallon ridge. A geodynamic implication of our ridge migration predictions is that the suggestion that the Pacific-Farallon ridge may have been pinned by a large mantle upwelling is not supported. Unexpected or erratic ridge behaviors may be tied to limitations in the models themselves or (for Indo-Atlantic models) discrepancies in the plate circuits used to project models into the Pacific realm. Ridge-spotting is promising and will be extended to include more plates and other ocean basins.

  9. Two-stage model of African absolute motion during the last 30 million years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pollitz, Fred F.

    1991-07-01

    The absolute motion of Africa (relative to the hotspots) for the past 30 My is modeled with two Euler vectors, with a change occurring at 6 Ma. Because of the high sensitivity of African absolute motions to errors in the absolute motions of the North America and Pacific plates, both the pre-6 Ma and post-6 Ma African absolute motions are determined simultaneously with North America and Pacific absolute motions for various epochs. Geologic data from the northern Atlantic and hotspot tracks from the African plate are used to augment previous data sets for the North America and Pacific plates. The difference between the pre-6 Ma and post-6 Ma absolute plate motions may be represented as a counterclockwise rotation about a pole at 48 °S, 84 °E, with angular velocity 0.085 °/My. This change is supported by geologic evidence along a large portion of the African plate boundary, including the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden spreading systems, the Alpine deformation zone, and the central and southern mid-Atlantic Ridge. Although the change is modeled as one abrupt transition at 6 Ma, it was most likely a gradual change spanning the period 8-4 Ma. As a likely mechanism for the change, we favor strong asthenospheric return flow from the Afar hotspot towards the southwest; this could produce the uniform southwesterly shift in absolute motion which we have inferred as well as provide a mechanism for the opening of the East African Rift. Comparing the absolute motions of the North America and Pacific plates with earlier estimates, the pole positions are revised by up to 5° and the angular velocities are decreased by 10-20%.

  10. Corresponding waist circumference and body mass index values based on 10-year absolute type 2 diabetes risk in an Australian Aboriginal community

    PubMed Central

    Adegbija, Odewumi; Hoy, Wendy E; Wang, Zhiqiang

    2015-01-01

    Objective There is a lack of waist circumference (WC) thresholds to identify Aboriginal individuals at high risk of type 2 diabetes. We generated gender-specific WC values with equivalent 10-year absolute risk of type 2 diabetes as body mass index (BMI) points in an Australian Aboriginal community to contribute to guidelines needed for establishing WC cut-off points for Aboriginals. Research design and methods A cohort of 803 adult participants free from type 2 diabetes in an Aboriginal community was followed up for up to 20 years. We derived WC values with absolute risks equivalent for the development of type 2 diabetes as BMI values (20–35 kg/m2) using the Weibull accelerated failure-time model. Results After a mean follow-up of 15.7 years, 110 participants developed type 2 diabetes. Absolute risk of type 2 diabetes increased as WC increased, ranging from 3.52% (WC=77.5 cm) to 14.14% (WC=119.9 cm) in males, and 5.04% (WC=79.5 cm) to 24.25% (WC=113.7 cm) in females. In males, WC values with same absolute risks of type 2 diabetes as BMI values were 77.5 cm for BMI=20 kg/m2, 91.5 cm for BMI=25 kg/m2 (overweight threshold), 105.7 cm for BMI=30 kg/m2 (obesity threshold) and 119.9 cm for BMI=35 kg/m2. In females, WC values were 79.5 cm for BMI=20 kg/m2, 90.9 cm for BMI=25 kg/m2, 102.3 cm for BMI=30 kg/m2 and 113.7 cm for BMI=35 kg/m2. Interaction between WC and gender was not statistically significant (p=0.53). Conclusions The absolute risk of type 2 diabetes increased with higher WC measured at baseline screening. Males were not significantly different from females in the association between WC and type 2 diabetes. Our findings are useful contributions for future establishment of WC cut-off points for identifying high-risk individuals in Aboriginal people. PMID:26405557

  11. Constraint on Absolute Accuracy of Metacomprehension Assessments: The Anchoring and Adjustment Model vs. the Standards Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kwon, Heekyung

    2011-01-01

    The objective of this study is to provide a systematic account of three typical phenomena surrounding absolute accuracy of metacomprehension assessments: (1) the absolute accuracy of predictions is typically quite low; (2) there exist individual differences in absolute accuracy of predictions as a function of reading skill; and (3) postdictions…

  12. Easy Absolute Values? Absolutely

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Taylor, Sharon E.; Mittag, Kathleen Cage

    2015-01-01

    The authors teach a problem-solving course for preservice middle-grades education majors that includes concepts dealing with absolute-value computations, equations, and inequalities. Many of these students like mathematics and plan to teach it, so they are adept at symbolic manipulations. Getting them to think differently about a concept that they…

  13. New identification method for Hammerstein models based on approximate least absolute deviation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Bao-Chang; Zhang, Ying-Dan

    2016-07-01

    Disorder and peak noises or large disturbances can deteriorate the identification effects of Hammerstein non-linear models when using the least-square (LS) method. The least absolute deviation technique can be used to resolve this problem; however, its absolute value cannot meet the need of differentiability required by most algorithms. To improve robustness and resolve the non-differentiable problem, an approximate least absolute deviation (ALAD) objective function is established by introducing a deterministic function that exhibits the characteristics of absolute value under certain situations. A new identification method for Hammerstein models based on ALAD is thus developed in this paper. The basic idea of this method is to apply the stochastic approximation theory in the process of deriving the recursive equations. After identifying the parameter matrix of the Hammerstein model via the new algorithm, the product terms in the matrix are separated by calculating the average values. Finally, algorithm convergence is proven by applying the ordinary differential equation method. The proposed algorithm has a better robustness as compared to other LS methods, particularly when abnormal points exist in the measured data. Furthermore, the proposed algorithm is easier to apply and converges faster. The simulation results demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed algorithm.

  14. A simple model explaining super-resolution in absolute optical instruments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leonhardt, Ulf; Sahebdivan, Sahar; Kogan, Alex; Tyc, Tomáš

    2015-05-01

    We develop a simple, one-dimensional model for super-resolution in absolute optical instruments that is able to describe the interplay between sources and detectors. Our model explains the subwavelength sensitivity of a point detector to a point source reported in previous computer simulations and experiments (Miñano 2011 New J. Phys.13 125009; Miñano 2014 New J. Phys.16 033015).

  15. Long-term Absolute Risk of Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia Grade 3 or Worse Following Human Papillomavirus Infection: Role of Persistence

    PubMed Central

    Frederiksen, Kirsten; Munk, Christian; Iftner, Thomas

    2010-01-01

    Background Infection with high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) is the main cause of high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) and cancer. It has been suggested that information about high-risk HPV type–specific infection might make cervical cancer screening more effective. Persistent HPV infection could also be a useful screening marker. We estimated the long-term risk of high-grade CIN after one-time detection of high-risk HPV DNA and after persistent infection with individual high-risk HPV types. Methods A cohort of 8656 women from the general population of Denmark was examined twice, 2 years apart (first study examination: May 15, 1991, to January 31, 1993; second study examination: October 1, 1993, to January 31, 1995). The women underwent a gynecological examination and cervical cytology and had swabs taken for HPV DNA analysis by the Hybrid Capture 2 and line probe assays. The women were followed up through the nationwide Danish Pathology Data Bank for cervical neoplasia for up to 13.4 years. The absolute risk of developing cervical lesions before a given time was estimated as a function of time. Results For women with normal cytological findings who were concurrently HPV16 DNA positive at the second examination, the estimated probability of developing CIN grade 3 (CIN3) or worse within 12 years of follow-up was 26.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 21.1% to 31.8%). The corresponding risks among those infected with HPV18 was 19.1% (95% CI = 10.4% to 27.3%), with HPV31 was 14.3% (95% CI = 9.1% to 19.4%), and with HPV33 was 14.9% (95% CI = 7.9% to 21.1%). The absolute risk of CIN3 or worse after infection with high-risk HPV types other than HPV16, HPV18, HPV31, or HPV33 was 6.0% (95% CI = 3.8% to 8.3%). The estimated absolute risk for CIN3 or cancer within 12 years of the second examination among women who were HPV16 DNA positive at both examinations was 47.4% (95% CI = 34.9% to 57.5%); by contrast, the risk of CIN3 or worse following a negative

  16. Modelling and measurement of the absolute level of power radiated by antenna integrated THz UTC photodiodes.

    PubMed

    Natrella, Michele; Liu, Chin-Pang; Graham, Chris; van Dijk, Frederic; Liu, Huiyun; Renaud, Cyril C; Seeds, Alwyn J

    2016-05-30

    We determine the output impedance of uni-travelling carrier (UTC) photodiodes at frequencies up to 400 GHz by performing, for the first time, 3D full-wave modelling of detailed UTC photodiode structures. In addition, we demonstrate the importance of the UTC impedance evaluation, by using it in the prediction of the absolute power radiated by an antenna integrated UTC, over a broad frequency range and confirming the predictions by experimental measurements up to 185 GHz. This is done by means of 3D full-wave modelling and is only possible since the source (UTC) to antenna impedance match is properly taken into account. We also show that, when the UTC-to-antenna coupling efficiency is modelled using the classical junction-capacitance/series-resistance concept, calculated and measured levels of absolute radiated power are in substantial disagreement, and the maximum radiated power is overestimated by a factor of almost 7 dB. The ability to calculate the absolute emitted power correctly enables the radiated power to be maximised through optimisation of the UTC-to-antenna impedance match. PMID:27410104

  17. Melanoma Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing melanoma cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  18. Time-series modeling and prediction of global monthly absolute temperature for environmental decision making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ye, Liming; Yang, Guixia; Van Ranst, Eric; Tang, Huajun

    2013-03-01

    A generalized, structural, time series modeling framework was developed to analyze the monthly records of absolute surface temperature, one of the most important environmental parameters, using a deterministicstochastic combined (DSC) approach. Although the development of the framework was based on the characterization of the variation patterns of a global dataset, the methodology could be applied to any monthly absolute temperature record. Deterministic processes were used to characterize the variation patterns of the global trend and the cyclic oscillations of the temperature signal, involving polynomial functions and the Fourier method, respectively, while stochastic processes were employed to account for any remaining patterns in the temperature signal, involving seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models. A prediction of the monthly global surface temperature during the second decade of the 21st century using the DSC model shows that the global temperature will likely continue to rise at twice the average rate of the past 150 years. The evaluation of prediction accuracy shows that DSC models perform systematically well against selected models of other authors, suggesting that DSC models, when coupled with other ecoenvironmental models, can be used as a supplemental tool for short-term (˜10-year) environmental planning and decision making.

  19. The Impact of Different Absolute Solar Irradiance Values on Current Climate Model Simulations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rind, David H.; Lean, Judith L.; Jonas, Jeffrey

    2014-01-01

    Simulations of the preindustrial and doubled CO2 climates are made with the GISS Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model 3 using two different estimates of the absolute solar irradiance value: a higher value measured by solar radiometers in the 1990s and a lower value measured recently by the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment. Each of the model simulations is adjusted to achieve global energy balance; without this adjustment the difference in irradiance produces a global temperature change of 0.48C, comparable to the cooling estimated for the Maunder Minimum. The results indicate that by altering cloud cover the model properly compensates for the different absolute solar irradiance values on a global level when simulating both preindustrial and doubled CO2 climates. On a regional level, the preindustrial climate simulations and the patterns of change with doubled CO2 concentrations are again remarkably similar, but there are some differences. Using a higher absolute solar irradiance value and the requisite cloud cover affects the model's depictions of high-latitude surface air temperature, sea level pressure, and stratospheric ozone, as well as tropical precipitation. In the climate change experiments it leads to an underestimation of North Atlantic warming, reduced precipitation in the tropical western Pacific, and smaller total ozone growth at high northern latitudes. Although significant, these differences are typically modest compared with the magnitude of the regional changes expected for doubled greenhouse gas concentrations. Nevertheless, the model simulations demonstrate that achieving the highest possible fidelity when simulating regional climate change requires that climate models use as input the most accurate (lower) solar irradiance value.

  20. Absolute stability and synchronization in neural field models with transmission delays

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kao, Chiu-Yen; Shih, Chih-Wen; Wu, Chang-Hong

    2016-08-01

    Neural fields model macroscopic parts of the cortex which involve several populations of neurons. We consider a class of neural field models which are represented by integro-differential equations with transmission time delays which are space-dependent. The considered domains underlying the systems can be bounded or unbounded. A new approach, called sequential contracting, instead of the conventional Lyapunov functional technique, is employed to investigate the global dynamics of such systems. Sufficient conditions for the absolute stability and synchronization of the systems are established. Several numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the theoretical results.

  1. Absolute IGS antenna phase center model igs08.atx: status and potential improvements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmid, R.; Dach, R.; Collilieux, X.; Jäggi, A.; Schmitz, M.; Dilssner, F.

    2016-04-01

    On 17 April 2011, all analysis centers (ACs) of the International GNSS Service (IGS) adopted the reference frame realization IGS08 and the corresponding absolute antenna phase center model igs08.atx for their routine analyses. The latter consists of an updated set of receiver and satellite antenna phase center offsets and variations (PCOs and PCVs). An update of the model was necessary due to the difference of about 1 ppb in the terrestrial scale between two consecutive realizations of the International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF2008 vs. ITRF2005), as that parameter is highly correlated with the GNSS satellite antenna PCO components in the radial direction.

  2. A California statewide three-dimensional seismic velocity model from both absolute and differential times

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lin, G.; Thurber, C.H.; Zhang, H.; Hauksson, E.; Shearer, P.M.; Waldhauser, F.; Brocher, T.M.; Hardebeck, J.

    2010-01-01

    We obtain a seismic velocity model of the California crust and uppermost mantle using a regional-scale double-difference tomography algorithm. We begin by using absolute arrival-time picks to solve for a coarse three-dimensional (3D) P velocity (VP) model with a uniform 30 km horizontal node spacing, which we then use as the starting model for a finer-scale inversion using double-difference tomography applied to absolute and differential pick times. For computational reasons, we split the state into 5 subregions with a grid spacing of 10 to 20 km and assemble our final statewide VP model by stitching together these local models. We also solve for a statewide S-wave model using S picks from both the Southern California Seismic Network and USArray, assuming a starting model based on the VP results and a VP=VS ratio of 1.732. Our new model has improved areal coverage compared with previous models, extending 570 km in the SW-NE directionand 1320 km in the NW-SE direction. It also extends to greater depth due to the inclusion of substantial data at large epicentral distances. Our VP model generally agrees with previous separate regional models for northern and southern California, but we also observe some new features, such as high-velocity anomalies at shallow depths in the Klamath Mountains and Mount Shasta area, somewhat slow velocities in the northern Coast Ranges, and slow anomalies beneath the Sierra Nevada at midcrustal and greater depths. This model can be applied to a variety of regional-scale studies in California, such as developing a unified statewide earthquake location catalog and performing regional waveform modeling.

  3. Evaluation of Generalized Born Model Accuracy for Absolute Binding Free Energy Calculations.

    PubMed

    Zeller, Fabian; Zacharias, Martin

    2014-06-27

    Generalized Born (GB) implicit solvent models are widely used in molecular dynamics simulations to evaluate the interactions of biomolecular complexes. The continuum treatment of the solvent results in significant computational savings in comparison to an explicit solvent representation. It is, however, not clear how accurately the GB approach reproduces the absolute free energies of biomolecular binding. On the basis of induced dissociation by means of umbrella sampling simulations, the absolute binding free energies of small proline-rich peptide ligands and a protein receptor were calculated. Comparative simulations according to the same protocol were performed by employing an explicit solvent model and various GB-type implicit solvent models in combination with a nonpolar surface tension term. The peptide ligands differed in a key residue at the peptide-protein interface, including either a nonpolar, a neutral polar, a positively charged, or a negatively charged group. For the peptides with a neutral polar or nonpolar interface residue, very good agreement between the explicit solvent and GB implicit solvent results was found. Deviations in the main separation free energy contributions are smaller than 1 kcal/mol. In contrast, for peptides with a charged interface residue, significant deviations of 2-4 kcal/mol were observed. The results indicate that recent GB models can compete with explicit solvent representations in total binding free energy calculations as long as no charged residues are present at the binding interface. PMID:24941018

  4. Absolute Summ

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Phillips, Alfred, Jr.

    Summ means the entirety of the multiverse. It seems clear, from the inflation theories of A. Guth and others, that the creation of many universes is plausible. We argue that Absolute cosmological ideas, not unlike those of I. Newton, may be consistent with dynamic multiverse creations. As suggested in W. Heisenberg's uncertainty principle, and with the Anthropic Principle defended by S. Hawking, et al., human consciousness, buttressed by findings of neuroscience, may have to be considered in our models. Predictability, as A. Einstein realized with Invariants and General Relativity, may be required for new ideas to be part of physics. We present here a two postulate model geared to an Absolute Summ. The seedbed of this work is part of Akhnaton's philosophy (see S. Freud, Moses and Monotheism). Most important, however, is that the structure of human consciousness, manifest in Kenya's Rift Valley 200,000 years ago as Homo sapiens, who were the culmination of the six million year co-creation process of Hominins and Nature in Africa, allows us to do the physics that we do. .

  5. Possible association between ocular chloramphenicol and aplastic anaemia—the absolute risk is very low

    PubMed Central

    Laporte, Joan-Ramon; Vidal, Xavier; Ballarín, Elena; Ibáñez, Luisa

    1998-01-01

    Aims To determine whether topical ocular chloramphenicol increases the risk of aplastic anaemia and to estimate the magnitude of this risk, if any. Methods Population-based prospective case-control surveillance of aplastic anaemia in a community of 4.2 million inhabitants from 1980 to 1995 (67.2 million person-years) plus case-population estimate of the risk, based on sales figures of ocular chloramphenicol in the study area during the study period. Results One hundred and forty-five patients with aplastic anaemia and 1,226 controls were included in the analysis. Three cases (2.1%) and 5 controls (0.4%) had been exposed to ocular chloramphenicol during the relevant etiological period. The adjusted odds ratio was 3.77 (95% confidence interval, 0.84–16.90). Two cases had also been exposed to other known causes of aplastic anaemia. The incidence of aplastic anaemia among users of ocular chloramphenicol was 0.36 cases per million weeks of treatment. The incidence among non users was 0.04 cases per million weeks. Conclusions An association between ocular chloramphenicol and aplastic anaemia cannot be excluded. However, the risk is less than one per million treatment courses. PMID:9723830

  6. Improved Strategies and Optimization of Calibration Models for Real-time PCR Absolute Quantification

    EPA Science Inventory

    Real-time PCR absolute quantification applications rely on the use of standard curves to make estimates of DNA target concentrations in unknown samples. Traditional absolute quantification approaches dictate that a standard curve must accompany each experimental run. However, t...

  7. Computations of absolute solvation free energies of small molecules using explicit and implicit solvent model.

    SciTech Connect

    Shivakumar, D.; Deng, Y.; Roux, B.; Biosciences Division; Univ. of Chicago

    2009-01-01

    Accurate determination of absolute solvation free energy plays a critical role in numerous areas of biomolecular modeling and drug discovery. A quantitative representation of ligand and receptor desolvation, in particular, is an essential component of current docking and scoring methods. Furthermore, the partitioning of a drug between aqueous and nonpolar solvents is one of the important factors considered in pharmacokinetics. In this study, the absolute hydration free energy for a set of 239 neutral ligands spanning diverse chemical functional groups commonly found in drugs and drug-like candidates is calculated using the molecular dynamics free energy perturbation method (FEP/MD) with explicit water molecules, and compared to experimental data as well as its counterparts obtained using implicit solvent models. The hydration free energies are calculated from explicit solvent simulations using a staged FEP procedure permitting a separation of the total free energy into polar and nonpolar contributions. The nonpolar component is further decomposed into attractive (dispersive) and repulsive (cavity) components using the Weeks-Chandler-Anderson (WCA) separation scheme. To increase the computational efficiency, all of the FEP/MD simulations are generated using a mixed explicit/implicit solvent scheme with a relatively small number of explicit TIP3P water molecules, in which the influence of the remaining bulk is incorporated via the spherical solvent boundary potential (SSBP). The performances of two fixed-charge force fields designed for small organic molecules, the General Amber force field (GAFF), and the all-atom CHARMm-MSI, are compared. Because of the crucial role of electrostatics in solvation free energy, the results from various commonly used charge generation models based on the semiempirical (AM1-BCC) and QM calculations [charge fitting using ChelpG and RESP] are compared. In addition, the solvation free energies of the test set are also calculated using

  8. Photochirogenesis: Photochemical models on the absolute asymmetric formation of amino acids in interstellar space

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meinert, Cornelia; de Marcellus, Pierre; Le Sergeant D'Hendecourt, Louis; Nahon, Laurent; Jones, Nykola C.; Hoffmann, Søren V.; Bredehöft, Jan Hendrik; Meierhenrich, Uwe J.

    2011-10-01

    Proteins of all living organisms including plants, animals, and humans are made up of amino acid monomers that show identical stereochemical L-configuration. Hypotheses for the origin of this symmetry breaking in biomolecules include the absolute asymmetric photochemistry model by which interstellar ultraviolet (UV) circularly polarized light (CPL) induces an enantiomeric excess in chiral organic molecules in the interstellar/circumstellar media. This scenario is supported by a) the detection of amino acids in the organic residues of UV-photo-processed interstellar ice analogues, b) the occurrence of L-enantiomer-enriched amino acids in carbonaceous meteorites, and c) the observation of CPL of the same helicity over large distance scales in the massive star-forming region of Orion. These topics are of high importance in topical biophysical research and will be discussed in this review. Further evidence that amino acids and other molecules of prebiotic interest are asymmetrically formed in space comes from studies on the enantioselective photolysis of amino acids by UV-CPL. Also, experiments have been performed on the absolute asymmetric photochemical synthesis of enantiomer-enriched amino acids from mixtures of astrophysically relevant achiral precursor molecules using UV-circularly polarized photons. Both approaches are based on circular dichroic transitions of amino acids that will be highlighted here as well. These results have strong implications on our current understanding of how life's precursor molecules were possibly built and how life selected the left-handed form of proteinogenic amino acids.

  9. Modeling absolute differences in life expectancy with a censored skew-normal regression approach

    PubMed Central

    Clough-Gorr, Kerri; Zwahlen, Marcel

    2015-01-01

    Parameter estimates from commonly used multivariable parametric survival regression models do not directly quantify differences in years of life expectancy. Gaussian linear regression models give results in terms of absolute mean differences, but are not appropriate in modeling life expectancy, because in many situations time to death has a negative skewed distribution. A regression approach using a skew-normal distribution would be an alternative to parametric survival models in the modeling of life expectancy, because parameter estimates can be interpreted in terms of survival time differences while allowing for skewness of the distribution. In this paper we show how to use the skew-normal regression so that censored and left-truncated observations are accounted for. With this we model differences in life expectancy using data from the Swiss National Cohort Study and from official life expectancy estimates and compare the results with those derived from commonly used survival regression models. We conclude that a censored skew-normal survival regression approach for left-truncated observations can be used to model differences in life expectancy across covariates of interest. PMID:26339544

  10. Surveying implicit solvent models for estimating small molecule absolute hydration free energies

    PubMed Central

    Knight, Jennifer L.

    2011-01-01

    Implicit solvent models are powerful tools in accounting for the aqueous environment at a fraction of the computational expense of explicit solvent representations. Here, we compare the ability of common implicit solvent models (TC, OBC, OBC2, GBMV, GBMV2, GBSW, GBSW/MS, GBSW/MS2 and FACTS) to reproduce experimental absolute hydration free energies for a series of 499 small neutral molecules that are modeled using AMBER/GAFF parameters and AM1-BCC charges. Given optimized surface tension coefficients for scaling the surface area term in the nonpolar contribution, most implicit solvent models demonstrate reasonable agreement with extensive explicit solvent simulations (average difference 1.0-1.7 kcal/mol and R2=0.81-0.91) and with experimental hydration free energies (average unsigned errors=1.1-1.4 kcal/mol and R2=0.66-0.81). Chemical classes of compounds are identified that need further optimization of their ligand force field parameters and others that require improvement in the physical parameters of the implicit solvent models themselves. More sophisticated nonpolar models are also likely necessary to more effectively represent the underlying physics of solvation and take the quality of hydration free energies estimated from implicit solvent models to the next level. PMID:21735452

  11. Enhanced Cortical Connectivity in Absolute Pitch Musicians: A Model for Local Hyperconnectivity

    PubMed Central

    Loui, Psyche; Charles Li, Hui C.; Hohmann, Anja; Schlaug, Gottfried

    2010-01-01

    Connectivity in the human brain has received increased scientific interest in recent years. Although connection disorders can affect perception, production, learning, and memory, few studies have associated brain connectivity with graded variations in human behavior, especially among normal individuals. One group of normal individuals who possess unique characteristics in both behavior and brain structure is absolute pitch (AP) musicians, who can name the appropriate pitch class of any given tone without a reference. Using diffusion tensor imaging and tractography, we observed hyperconnectivity in bilateral superior temporal lobe structures linked to AP possession. Furthermore, volume of tracts connecting left superior temporal gyrus to left middle temporal gyrus predicted AP performance. These findings extend previous reports of exaggerated temporal lobe asymmetry, may explain the higher incidence of AP in developmental disorders, and may provide a model for understanding the heightened connectivity that is thought to underlie savant skills and cases of exceptional creativity. PMID:20515408

  12. Nilpotent and absolutely anticommuting symmetries in the Freedman-Townsend model: Augmented superfield formalism

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shukla, A.; Krishna, S.; Malik, R. P.

    2014-12-01

    We derive the off-shell nilpotent and absolutely anticommuting Becchi-Rouet-Stora-Tyutin (BRST) and anti-BRST symmetry transformations, corresponding to the (1-form) Yang-Mills (YM) and (2-form) tensorial gauge symmetries of the four (3+1)-dimensional (4D) Freedman-Townsend (FT) model, by exploiting the augmented version of Bonora-Tonin's (BT) superfield approach to BRST formalism where the 4D flat Minkowskian theory is generalized onto the (4, 2)-dimensional supermanifold. One of the novel observations is the fact that we are theoretically compelled to go beyond the horizontality condition (HC) to invoke an additional set of gauge-invariant restrictions (GIRs) for the derivation of the full set of proper (anti-)BRST symmetries. To obtain the (anti-)BRST symmetry transformations, corresponding to the tensorial (2-form) gauge symmetries within the framework of augmented version of BT-superfield approach, we are logically forced to modify the FT-model to incorporate an auxiliary 1-form field and the kinetic term for the antisymmetric (2-form) gauge field. This is also a new observation in our present investigation. We point out some of the key differences between the modified FT-model and Lahiri-model (LM) of the dynamical non-Abelian 2-form gauge theories. We also briefly mention a few similarities.

  13. Absolute nuclear material assay

    DOEpatents

    Prasad, Manoj K.; Snyderman, Neal J.; Rowland, Mark S.

    2012-05-15

    A method of absolute nuclear material assay of an unknown source comprising counting neutrons from the unknown source and providing an absolute nuclear material assay utilizing a model to optimally compare to the measured count distributions. In one embodiment, the step of providing an absolute nuclear material assay comprises utilizing a random sampling of analytically computed fission chain distributions to generate a continuous time-evolving sequence of event-counts by spreading the fission chain distribution in time.

  14. Absolute nuclear material assay

    DOEpatents

    Prasad, Manoj K.; Snyderman, Neal J.; Rowland, Mark S.

    2010-07-13

    A method of absolute nuclear material assay of an unknown source comprising counting neutrons from the unknown source and providing an absolute nuclear material assay utilizing a model to optimally compare to the measured count distributions. In one embodiment, the step of providing an absolute nuclear material assay comprises utilizing a random sampling of analytically computed fission chain distributions to generate a continuous time-evolving sequence of event-counts by spreading the fission chain distribution in time.

  15. An Integrated Model of Choices and Response Times in Absolute Identification

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brown, Scott D.; Marley, A. A. J.; Donkin, Christopher; Heathcote, Andrew

    2008-01-01

    Recent theoretical developments in the field of absolute identification have stressed differences between relative and absolute processes, that is, whether stimulus magnitudes are judged relative to a shorter term context provided by recently presented stimuli or a longer term context provided by the entire set of stimuli. The authors developed a…

  16. Acute radiation risk models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smirnova, Olga

    Biologically motivated mathematical models, which describe the dynamics of the major hematopoietic lineages (the thrombocytopoietic, lymphocytopoietic, granulocytopoietic, and erythropoietic systems) in acutely/chronically irradiated humans are developed. These models are implemented as systems of nonlinear differential equations, which variables and constant parameters have clear biological meaning. It is shown that the developed models are capable of reproducing clinical data on the dynamics of these systems in humans exposed to acute radiation in the result of incidents and accidents, as well as in humans exposed to low-level chronic radiation. Moreover, the averaged value of the "lethal" dose rates of chronic irradiation evaluated within models of these four major hematopoietic lineages coincides with the real minimal dose rate of lethal chronic irradiation. The demonstrated ability of the models of the human thrombocytopoietic, lymphocytopoietic, granulocytopoietic, and erythropoietic systems to predict the dynamical response of these systems to acute/chronic irradiation in wide ranges of doses and dose rates implies that these mathematical models form an universal tool for the investigation and prediction of the dynamics of the major human hematopoietic lineages for a vast pattern of irradiation scenarios. In particular, these models could be applied for the radiation risk assessment for health of astronauts exposed to space radiation during long-term space missions, such as voyages to Mars or Lunar colonies, as well as for health of people exposed to acute/chronic irradiation due to environmental radiological events.

  17. Absolute quantification of the pretreatment PML-RARA transcript defines the relapse risk in acute promyelocytic leukemia.

    PubMed

    Albano, Francesco; Zagaria, Antonella; Anelli, Luisa; Coccaro, Nicoletta; Tota, Giuseppina; Brunetti, Claudia; Minervini, Crescenzio Francesco; Impera, Luciana; Minervini, Angela; Cellamare, Angelo; Orsini, Paola; Cumbo, Cosimo; Casieri, Paola; Specchia, Giorgina

    2015-05-30

    In this study we performed absolute quantification of the PML-RARA transcript by droplet digital polymerase chain reaction (ddPCR) in 76 newly diagnosed acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL) cases to verify the prognostic impact of the PML-RARA initial molecular burden. ddPCR analysis revealed that the amount of PML-RARA transcript at diagnosis in the group of patients who relapsed was higher than in that with continuous complete remission (CCR) (272 vs 89.2 PML-RARA copies/ng, p = 0.0004, respectively). Receiver operating characteristic analysis detected the optimal PML-RARA concentration threshold as 209.6 PML-RARA/ng (AUC 0.78; p < 0.0001) for discriminating between outcomes (CCR versus relapse). Among the 67 APL cases who achieved complete remission after the induction treatment, those with >209.6 PML-RARA/ng had a worse relapse-free survival (p = 0.0006). At 5-year follow-up, patients with >209.6 PML-RARA/ng had a cumulative incidence of relapse of 50.3% whereas 7.5% of the patients with suffered a relapse (p < 0.0001). Multivariate analysis identified the amount of PML-RARA before induction treatment as the sole independent prognostic factor for APL relapse.Our results show that the pretreatment PML-RARA molecular burden could therefore be used to improve risk stratification in order to develop more individualized treatment regimens for high-risk APL cases. PMID:25944686

  18. Model based period analysis of absolute and relative survival with R: data preparation, model fitting and derivation of survival estimates.

    PubMed

    Holleczek, Bernd; Brenner, Hermann

    2013-05-01

    Period analysis is increasingly employed in analyses of long-term survival of patients with chronic diseases such as cancer, as it derives more up-to-date survival estimates than traditional cohort based approaches. It has recently been extended with regression modelling using generalized linear models, which increases the precision of the survival estimates and enables to assess and account for effects of additional covariates. This paper provides a detailed presentation how model based period analysis may be used to derive population-based absolute and relative survival estimates using the freely available R language and statistical environment and already available R programs for period analysis. After an introduction of the underlying regression model and a description of the software tools we provide a step-by-step implementation of two regression models in R and illustrate how estimates and a test for trend over time in relative survival may be derived using data from a population based cancer registry. PMID:23116692

  19. Absolute masses and radii determination in multiplanetary systems without stellar models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Almenara, J. M.; Díaz, R. F.; Mardling, R.; Barros, S. C. C.; Damiani, C.; Bruno, G.; Bonfils, X.; Deleuil, M.

    2015-11-01

    The masses and radii of extrasolar planets are key observables for understanding their interior, formation and evolution. While transit photometry and Doppler spectroscopy are used to measure the radii and masses respectively of planets relative to those of their host star, estimates for the true values of these quantities rely on theoretical models of the host star which are known to suffer from systematic differences with observations. When a system is composed of more than two bodies, extra information is contained in the transit photometry and radial velocity data. Velocity information (finite speed-of-light, Doppler) is needed to break the Newtonian MR-3 degeneracy. We performed a photodynamical modelling of the two-planet transiting system Kepler-117 using all photometric and spectroscopic data available. We demonstrate how absolute masses and radii of single-star planetary systems can be obtained without resorting to stellar models. Limited by the precision of available radial velocities (38 m s-1), we achieve accuracies of 20 per cent in the radii and 70 per cent in the masses, while simulated 1 m s-1 precision radial velocities lower these to 1 per cent for the radii and 2 per cent for the masses. Since transiting multiplanet systems are common, this technique can be used to measure precisely the mass and radius of a large sample of stars and planets. We anticipate these measurements will become common when the TESS and PLATO mission provide high-precision light curves of a large sample of bright stars. These determinations will improve our knowledge about stars and planets, and provide strong constraints on theoretical models.

  20. Mental Models of Security Risks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Asgharpour, Farzaneh; Liu, Debin; Camp, L. Jean

    In computer security, risk communication refers to informing computer users about the likelihood and magnitude of a threat. Efficacy of risk communication depends not only on the nature of the risk, but also on the alignment between the conceptual model embedded in the risk communication and the user's mental model of the risk. The gap between the mental models of security experts and non-experts could lead to ineffective risk communication. Our research shows that for a variety of the security risks self-identified security experts and non-experts have different mental models. We propose that the design of the risk communication methods should be based on the non-expert mental models.

  1. College Students' Role Models, Learning Style Preferences, and Academic Achievement in Collaborative Teaching: Absolute versus Relativistic Thinking

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chiou, Wen-Bin

    2008-01-01

    Based on the perspective of postformal operations, this study investigated whether college students' role models (technical teachers vs. lecturing teachers) and preferred learning styles (experience-driven mode vs. theory-driven mode) in collaborative teaching courses would be moderated by their cognitive development (absolute thinking vs.…

  2. High post-treatment absolute monocyte count predicted hepatocellular carcinoma risk in HCV patients who failed peginterferon/ribavirin therapy.

    PubMed

    Chen, Tsung-Ming; Lin, Chun-Che; Huang, Pi-Teh; Wen, Chen-Fan

    2016-06-01

    Salient studies have investigated the association between host inflammatory response and cancer. This study was conducted to test the hypothesis that peripheral absolute monocyte counts (AMC) could impart an increased risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected patients after a failed peginterferon/ribavirin (PR) combination therapy. A total of 723 chronic HCV-infected patients were treated with PR, of which 183 (25.3 %) patients did not achieve a sustained virological response (non-SVR). Post-treatment AMC values were measured at 6 months after end of PR treatment. Fifteen (2.8 %) of 540 patients with an SVR developed HCC during a median follow-up period of 41.4 months, and 14 (7.7 %) of 183 non-SVR patients developed HCC during a median follow-up of 36.8 months (log rank test for SVR vs. non-SVR, P = 0.002). Cox regression analysis revealed that post-treatment AFP level (HR 1.070; 95 % CI = 1.024-1.119, P = 0.003) and post-treatment aspartate aminotransferase (AST)-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) ≥0.5 (HR 4.401; 95 % CI = 1.463-13.233, P = 0.008) were independent variables associated with HCC development for SVR patients. For non-SVR patients, diabetes (HR 5.750; 95 % CI = 1.387-23.841, P = 0.016), post treatment AMC ≥370 mm(-3) (HR 5.805; 95 % CI = 1.268-26.573, P = 0.023), and post-treatment APRI ≥1.5 (HR 10.905; 95 % CI = 2.493-47.697, P = 0.002) were independent risks associated with HCC. In conclusion, post-treatment AMC has a role in prognostication of HCC development in HCV-infected patients who failed to achieve an SVR after PR combination therapy. PMID:26662957

  3. 3D geomechanical-numerical modelling of the absolute stress state for geothermal reservoir exploration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reiter, Karsten; Heidbach, Oliver; Moeck, Inga

    2013-04-01

    For the assessment and exploration of a potential geothermal reservoir, the contemporary in-situ stress is of key importance in terms of well stability and orientation of possible fluid pathways. However, available data, e.g. Heidbach et al. (2009) or Zang et al. (2012), deliver only point wise information of parts of the six independent components of the stress tensor. Moreover most measurements of the stress orientation and magnitude are done for hydrocarbon industry obvious in shallow depth. Interpolation across long distances or extrapolation into depth is unfavourable, because this would ignore structural features, inhomogeneity's in the crust or other local effects like topography. For this reasons geomechanical numerical modelling is the favourable method to quantify orientations and magnitudes of the 3D stress field for a geothermal reservoir. A geomechanical-numerical modelling, estimating the 3D absolute stress state, requires the initial stress state as model constraints. But in-situ stress measurements within or close by a potential reservoir are rare. For that reason a larger regional geomechanical-numerical model is necessary, which derive boundary conditions for the wanted local reservoir model. Such a large scale model has to be tested against in-situ stress measurements, orientations and magnitudes. Other suitable and available data, like GPS measurements or fault slip rates are useful to constrain kinematic boundary conditions. This stepwise approach from regional to local scale takes all stress field factors into account, from first over second up to third order. As an example we present a large scale crustal and upper mantle 3D-geomechanical-numerical model of the Alberta Basin and the surroundings, which is constructed to describe continuously the full stress tensor. In-situ stress measurements are the most likely data, because they deliver the most direct information's of the stress field and they provide insights into different depths, a

  4. The Case for Absolute Ligand Discrimination: Modeling Information Processing and Decision by Immune T Cells

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    François, Paul; Altan-Bonnet, Grégoire

    2016-03-01

    Some cells have to take decision based on the quality of surroundings ligands, almost irrespective of their quantity, a problem we name "absolute discrimination". An example of absolute discrimination is recognition of not-self by immune T Cells. We show how the problem of absolute discrimination can be solved by a process called "adaptive sorting". We review several implementations of adaptive sorting, as well as its generic properties such as antagonism. We show how kinetic proofreading with negative feedback implement an approximate version of adaptive sorting in the immune context. Finally, we revisit the decision problem at the cell population level, showing how phenotypic variability and feedbacks between population and single cells are crucial for proper decision.

  5. Absolute Entropy and Energy of Carbon Dioxide Using the Two-Phase Thermodynamic Model.

    PubMed

    Huang, Shao-Nung; Pascal, Tod A; Goddard, William A; Maiti, Prabal K; Lin, Shiang-Tai

    2011-06-14

    The two-phase thermodynamic (2PT) model is used to determine the absolute entropy and energy of carbon dioxide over a wide range of conditions from molecular dynamics trajectories. The 2PT method determines the thermodynamic properties by applying the proper statistical mechanical partition function to the normal modes of a fluid. The vibrational density of state (DoS), obtained from the Fourier transform of the velocity autocorrelation function, converges quickly, allowing the free energy, entropy, and other thermodynamic properties to be determined from short 20-ps MD trajectories. The anharmonic effects in the vibrations are accounted for by the broadening of the normal modes into bands from sampling the velocities over the trajectory. The low frequency diffusive modes, which lead to finite DoS at zero frequency, are accounted for by considering the DoS as a superposition of gas-phase and solid-phase components (two phases). The analytical decomposition of the DoS allows for an evaluation of properties contributed by different types of molecular motions. We show that this 2PT analysis leads to accurate predictions of entropy and energy of CO2 over a wide range of conditions (from the triple point to the critical point of both the vapor and the liquid phases along the saturation line). This allows the equation of state of CO2 to be determined, which is limited only by the accuracy of the force field. We also validated that the 2PT entropy agrees with that determined from thermodynamic integration, but 2PT requires only a fraction of the time. A complication for CO2 is that its equilibrium configuration is linear, which would have only two rotational modes, but during the dynamics it is never exactly linear, so that there is a third mode from rotational about the axis. In this work, we show how to treat such linear molecules in the 2PT framework. PMID:26596450

  6. New Zealand Seismic Risk Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Molas, G.; Aslani, H.; Bryngelson, J.; Khan, Z.

    2006-12-01

    A seismic risk model for New Zealand has been developed to assisted insurers and reinsurers in assessing their financial risk posed by earthquakes. This presentation summarizes the methodology and data within the model and includes a discussion of the key results from the hazard and risk perspectives. The earthquake, risk-model framework has four components. First, the stochastic event set is determined, as well as its associated event probabilities. A ground-motion model including geotechnical data is added to complete the seismic hazard model. To determine risk, regional building vulnerability curves and a financial model are incorporated. An insurer property exposure database was developed to determine the insured seismic risk in these countries. Using this model, examination of resulting hazard maps (200, 475, 1000 and 2500 years) and of city-level, hazard-curves gives insight to the key drivers of risk across the region. Hazard de-aggregation allow for examination of key drivers of risk in terms of seismic sources, event magnitude and events types. Examination of loss costs for residential and commercial (short and mid-rise) structures gives insight into the risk perspective for these various lines of business. Finally, incorporation of the insurer property exposure allows for an examination of the insured risk across the region and between exposure concentrations including Wellington, Auckland and Christchurch.

  7. Absolute Zero

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donnelly, Russell J.; Sheibley, D.; Belloni, M.; Stamper-Kurn, D.; Vinen, W. F.

    2006-12-01

    Absolute Zero is a two hour PBS special attempting to bring to the general public some of the advances made in 400 years of thermodynamics. It is based on the book “Absolute Zero and the Conquest of Cold” by Tom Shachtman. Absolute Zero will call long-overdue attention to the remarkable strides that have been made in low-temperature physics, a field that has produced 27 Nobel Prizes. It will explore the ongoing interplay between science and technology through historical examples including refrigerators, ice machines, frozen foods, liquid oxygen and nitrogen as well as much colder fluids such as liquid hydrogen and liquid helium. A website has been established to promote the series: www.absolutezerocampaign.org. It contains information on the series, aimed primarily at students at the middle school level. There is a wealth of material here and we hope interested teachers will draw their student’s attention to this website and its substantial contents, which have been carefully vetted for accuracy.

  8. User`s guide for the Simplified Risk Model (SRM)

    SciTech Connect

    Peatross, R.G.; Eide, S.A.

    1996-10-01

    SRM can be used to quickly compare relative values relating to risk for many environmental management activities or alternatives at US DOE sites. Purpose of this guide is to provide the user with the essential values and decision points for each model variable. The numerical results are useful for ranking and screening purposes and should not be compared directly against absolute risk numerical results such as in CERCLA baseline risk assessments or Safety Analysis Reports. Implementing the SRM entails performing several preliminary steps, selecting values of the risk elements, calculating the risk equations, and checking the results. SRM considers two types of waste management states: inactive (rest) and active (transition). SRM considers risk from exposures to radionuclides and hazardous chemicals, as well as industrial hazards; however this user`s guide does not cover risk from industrial hazards (Section 10 of Eide et al. (1996) must be consulted).

  9. Gender equality and women's absolute status: a test of the feminist models of rape.

    PubMed

    Martin, Kimberly; Vieraitis, Lynne M; Britto, Sarah

    2006-04-01

    Feminist theory predicts both a positive and negative relationship between gender equality and rape rates. Although liberal and radical feminist theory predicts that gender equality should ameliorate rape victimization, radical feminist theorists have argued that gender equality may increase rape in the form of male backlash. Alternatively, Marxist criminologists focus on women's absolute socioeconomic status rather than gender equality as a predictor of rape rates, whereas socialist feminists combine both radical and Marxist perspectives. This study uses factor analysis to overcome multicollinearity limitations of past studies while exploring the relationship between women's absolute and relative socioeconomic status on rape rates in major U.S. cities using 2000 census data. The findings indicate support for both the Marxist and radical feminist explanations of rape but no support for the ameliorative hypothesis. These findings support a more inclusive socialist feminist theory that takes both Marxist and radical feminist hypotheses into account. PMID:16567334

  10. Application of two versions of the WHO/international society of hypertension absolute cardiovascular risk assessment tools in a rural Bangladeshi population

    PubMed Central

    Fatema, Kaniz; Zwar, Nicholas Arnold; Milton, Abul Hasnat; Rahman, Bayzidur; Ali, Liaquat

    2015-01-01

    Objectives To estimate the absolute cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk burden in a remote rural Bangladeshi population using the ‘With’ and ‘Without’ Cholesterol versions of the WHO/International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) CVD risk assessment chart (particularly suitable for low and middle-income countries due to less reliance on laboratory testing) and to evaluate the agreement between the two approaches. Design Cross-sectional study using data from a large prospective cohort of the North Bengal Non-Communicable Disease Programme (NB-NCDP) of Bangladesh. Setting General rural population from Thakurgaon district of Bangladesh. Participants 563 individuals who were categorised as having ‘no CVDs’ on screening by a questionnaire-based survey using the ‘WHO CVD-Risk Management Package’ developed in 2002. Main outcome measures Absolute CVD risk burden assessed using two versions of the WHO/ISH risk assessment charts for the South-East Asian Region-D. Results 10-year risk (moderate, high and very high) positivity was present among 21.5% and 20.2% of participants, respectively, using with and without cholesterol versions of the tool. The overall concordance rate for the two versions was 89.5% and they did not differ significantly in estimating the proportion of overall participants having higher levels of CVD. The projected drug requirement, however, showed a significant overestimation in the proportion of participants at both the threshold levels (p<0.002) on using ‘without’ as compared to ‘with’ cholesterol versions. Conclusions About one-fifth of the adult population in Bangladesh, even in a remote rural area, seem to be at risk of developing CVDs (25% of them at high risk and 25% at very high risk) within 10 years with males and females being almost equally vulnerable. PMID:26463220

  11. Determining the importance of model calibration for forecasting absolute/relative changes in streamflow from LULC and climate changes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Niraula, Rewati; Meixner, Thomas; Norman, Laura M.

    2015-01-01

    Land use/land cover (LULC) and climate changes are important drivers of change in streamflow. Assessing the impact of LULC and climate changes on streamflow is typically done with a calibrated and validated watershed model. However, there is a debate on the degree of calibration required. The objective of this study was to quantify the variation in estimated relative and absolute changes in streamflow associated with LULC and climate changes with different calibration approaches. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied in an uncalibrated (UC), single outlet calibrated (OC), and spatially-calibrated (SC) mode to compare the relative and absolute changes in streamflow at 14 gaging stations within the Santa Cruz River Watershed in southern Arizona, USA. For this purpose, the effect of 3 LULC, 3 precipitation (P), and 3 temperature (T) scenarios were tested individually. For the validation period, Percent Bias (PBIAS) values were >100% with the UC model for all gages, the values were between 0% and 100% with the OC model and within 20% with the SC model. Changes in streamflow predicted with the UC and OC models were compared with those of the SC model. This approach implicitly assumes that the SC model is “ideal”. Results indicated that the magnitude of both absolute and relative changes in streamflow due to LULC predicted with the UC and OC results were different than those of the SC model. The magnitude of absolute changes predicted with the UC and SC models due to climate change (both P and T) were also significantly different, but were not different for OC and SC models. Results clearly indicated that relative changes due to climate change predicted with the UC and OC were not significantly different than that predicted with the SC models. This result suggests that it is important to calibrate the model spatially to analyze the effect of LULC change but not as important for analyzing the relative change in streamflow due to climate change. This

  12. RISK 0301 - MOLECULAR MODELING

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk assessment practices, in general, for a range of diseases now encourages the use of mechanistic data to enhance the ability to predict responses at low, environmental exposures. In particular, the pathway from normal biology to pathologic state can be dcscribed by a set of m...

  13. Absolute model ages of mantled surfaces in Malea Planum and Utopia Planitia, Mars.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Willmes, M.; Hiesinger, H.; Reiss, D.; Zanetti, M.

    2009-04-01

    The surface of Mars is partially covered by a latitude-dependent ice-rich smooth mantle in the middle and high latitudes (±30-60°) [1, 2]. These deposits relate to changes in the obliquity of Mars which have led to major shifts in the Martian climate and repeated global episodes of deposition [3]. The deposits vary in thickness and are usually independent of local geology, topography and elevation. In this study we have determined absolute model ages for the mantled surface units in Utopia Planitia (northern hemisphere) and Malea Planum (southern hemisphere) using crater statistics [4]. These regions show a specific type of mantle degradation called scalloped terrain, and modelled crater retention ages of the easily eroded mantle in these regions reveal the time since the last resurfacing. Images from the High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) (25-50 cm/pixel spatial resolution) on board the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) were analyzed, continuous areas of smooth mantle were mapped, and small, fresh, unmodified craters were counted. Both regions show degradation features of the mantle in varying degrees. The mantle in Utopia Planitia appears heavily modified by polygonal fractures and scalloped depressions [5]. Scalloped depressions are also found in Malea Planum, but the mantle appears much smoother and less modified by periglacial processes [5, 6]. The study areas totalled 722 km² in Utopia Planitia, and 296 km² in Malea Planum. Model ages for these regions were determined using the chronology function of Hartmann and Neukum [4] and the production function Ivanov [7]. The model ages show that the mantle unit for the area mapped in Utopia Planitia is 0.65 (+0.35/-0.41) to 2.9 (+0.69/-0.75) Myr old and Malea Planum is 3.0 (+1.5/-1.7) to 4.5 (+1.3/-1.4) Myr old, and that both regions represent very recent Amazonian terrain. This is also in agreement with the observed young degradation features described by [6, 8]. We acknowledge that the

  14. Liver Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing liver cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  15. Cervical Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing cervical cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  16. Pancreatic Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing pancreatic cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  17. Prostate Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing prostate cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  18. Ovarian Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing ovarian cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  19. Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing lung cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  20. Bladder Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing bladder cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  1. Testicular Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of testicular cervical cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  2. Colorectal Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing colorectal cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  3. Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing breast cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  4. Esophageal Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing esophageal cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  5. Risk modelling in portfolio optimization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lam, W. H.; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah Hj.; Isa, Zaidi

    2013-09-01

    Risk management is very important in portfolio optimization. The mean-variance model has been used in portfolio optimization to minimize the investment risk. The objective of the mean-variance model is to minimize the portfolio risk and achieve the target rate of return. Variance is used as risk measure in the mean-variance model. The purpose of this study is to compare the portfolio composition as well as performance between the optimal portfolio of mean-variance model and equally weighted portfolio. Equally weighted portfolio means the proportions that are invested in each asset are equal. The results show that the portfolio composition of the mean-variance optimal portfolio and equally weighted portfolio are different. Besides that, the mean-variance optimal portfolio gives better performance because it gives higher performance ratio than the equally weighted portfolio.

  6. An absolute chronology for early Egypt using radiocarbon dating and Bayesian statistical modelling

    PubMed Central

    Dee, Michael; Wengrow, David; Shortland, Andrew; Stevenson, Alice; Brock, Fiona; Girdland Flink, Linus; Bronk Ramsey, Christopher

    2013-01-01

    The Egyptian state was formed prior to the existence of verifiable historical records. Conventional dates for its formation are based on the relative ordering of artefacts. This approach is no longer considered sufficient for cogent historical analysis. Here, we produce an absolute chronology for Early Egypt by combining radiocarbon and archaeological evidence within a Bayesian paradigm. Our data cover the full trajectory of Egyptian state formation and indicate that the process occurred more rapidly than previously thought. We provide a timeline for the First Dynasty of Egypt of generational-scale resolution that concurs with prevailing archaeological analysis and produce a chronometric date for the foundation of Egypt that distinguishes between historical estimates. PMID:24204188

  7. Injury count model for quantification of risk of occupational injury.

    PubMed

    Khanzode, Vivek V; Maiti, J; Ray, P K

    2011-06-01

    Reduction of risk of occupational injuries is one of the most challenging problems faced by industry. Assessing and comparing risks involved in different jobs is one of the important steps towards reducing injury risk. In this study, a comprehensive scheme is given for assessing and comparing injury risks with the development of injury count model, injury risk model and derived statistics. The hazards present in a work system and the nature of the job carried out by workers are perceived as important drivers of injury potential of a work system. A loglinear model is used to quantify injury counts and the event-tree approach with joint, marginal and conditional probabilities is used to quantify injury risk. A case study was carried out in an underground coal mine. Finally a number of indices are proposed for the case study mine to capture risk of injury in different jobs. The findings of this study will help in designing injury intervention strategies for the mine studied. The job-wise risk profiles will be used to prioritise the jobs for redesign. The absolute indices can be applied for benchmarking job-wise risks and the relative indices can be used for comparing job-wise risks across work systems. PMID:21432706

  8. College students' role models, learning style preferences, and academic achievement in collaborative teaching: absolute versus relativistic thinking.

    PubMed

    Chiou, Wen-Bin

    2008-01-01

    Based on the perspective of postformal operations, this study investigated whether college students' role models (technical teachers vs. lecturing teachers) and preferred learning styles (experience-driven mode vs. theory-driven mode) in collaborative teaching courses would be moderated by their cognitive development (absolute thinking vs. relativistic thinking) and examine whether academic achievement of students would be contingent upon their preferred learning styles. Two hundred forty-four college students who have taken the technical courses with collaborative teaching participated in this study. The results showed that those participants with absolute thinking perceived the modeling advantage of technical teachers was greater than that of lecturing teachers, preferred the experience-driven mode over the theory-driven mode, and displayed differential academic achievement between technical courses and general courses. On the other hand, the students with relativistic thinking revealed no difference in perceived modeling advantage of role models, learning styles preferences, and academic achievement between two categories of courses. In addition, this research indicates that college students' preferred learning styles would interact with course category (technical courses vs. general courses) to display differential academic achievement. Implications and future directions are discussed. PMID:18447085

  9. Multifractal Value at Risk model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Hojin; Song, Jae Wook; Chang, Woojin

    2016-06-01

    In this paper new Value at Risk (VaR) model is proposed and investigated. We consider the multifractal property of financial time series and develop a multifractal Value at Risk (MFVaR). MFVaR introduced in this paper is analytically tractable and not based on simulation. Empirical study showed that MFVaR can provide the more stable and accurate forecasting performance in volatile financial markets where large loss can be incurred. This implies that our multifractal VaR works well for the risk measurement of extreme credit events.

  10. Information risk and security modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zivic, Predrag

    2005-03-01

    This research paper presentation will feature current frameworks to addressing risk and security modeling and metrics. The paper will analyze technical level risk and security metrics of Common Criteria/ISO15408, Centre for Internet Security guidelines, NSA configuration guidelines and metrics used at this level. Information IT operational standards view on security metrics such as GMITS/ISO13335, ITIL/ITMS and architectural guidelines such as ISO7498-2 will be explained. Business process level standards such as ISO17799, COSO and CobiT will be presented with their control approach to security metrics. Top level, the maturity standards such as SSE-CMM/ISO21827, NSA Infosec Assessment and CobiT will be explored and reviewed. For each defined level of security metrics the research presentation will explore the appropriate usage of these standards. The paper will discuss standards approaches to conducting the risk and security metrics. The research findings will demonstrate the need for common baseline for both risk and security metrics. This paper will show the relation between the attribute based common baseline and corporate assets and controls for risk and security metrics. IT will be shown that such approach spans over all mentioned standards. The proposed approach 3D visual presentation and development of the Information Security Model will be analyzed and postulated. Presentation will clearly demonstrate the benefits of proposed attributes based approach and defined risk and security space for modeling and measuring.

  11. Cabin Environment Physics Risk Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mattenberger, Christopher J.; Mathias, Donovan Leigh

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a Cabin Environment Physics Risk (CEPR) model that predicts the time for an initial failure of Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) functionality to propagate into a hazardous environment and trigger a loss-of-crew (LOC) event. This physics-of failure model allows a probabilistic risk assessment of a crewed spacecraft to account for the cabin environment, which can serve as a buffer to protect the crew during an abort from orbit and ultimately enable a safe return. The results of the CEPR model replace the assumption that failure of the crew critical ECLSS functionality causes LOC instantly, and provide a more accurate representation of the spacecraft's risk posture. The instant-LOC assumption is shown to be excessively conservative and, moreover, can impact the relative risk drivers identified for the spacecraft. This, in turn, could lead the design team to allocate mass for equipment to reduce overly conservative risk estimates in a suboptimal configuration, which inherently increases the overall risk to the crew. For example, available mass could be poorly used to add redundant ECLSS components that have a negligible benefit but appear to make the vehicle safer due to poor assumptions about the propagation time of ECLSS failures.

  12. Command Process Modeling & Risk Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Meshkat, Leila

    2011-01-01

    Commanding Errors may be caused by a variety of root causes. It's important to understand the relative significance of each of these causes for making institutional investment decisions. One of these causes is the lack of standardized processes and procedures for command and control. We mitigate this problem by building periodic tables and models corresponding to key functions within it. These models include simulation analysis and probabilistic risk assessment models.

  13. Stochastic and empirical models of the absolute asymmetric synthesis by the Soai-autocatalysis.

    PubMed

    Barabás, Béla; Zucchi, Claudia; Maioli, Marco; Micskei, Károly; Pályi, Gyula

    2015-02-01

    Absolute asymmetric synthesis (AAS) is the preparation of pure (or excess of one) enantiomer of a chiral compound from achiral precursor(s) by a chemical reaction, without enantiopure chiral additive and/or without applied asymmetric physical field. Only one well-characterized example of AAS is known today: the Soai-autocatalysis. In an attempt at clarification of the mechanism of this particular reaction we have undertaken empirical and stochastic analysis of several parallel AAS experiments. Our results show that the initial steps of the reaction might be controlled by simple normal distribution ("coin tossing") formalism. Advanced stages of the reaction, however, appear to be of a more complicated nature. Symmetric beta distribution formalism could not be brought into correspondence with the experimental observations. A bimodal beta distribution algorithm provided suitable agreement with the experimental data. The parameters of this bimodal beta function were determined by a Pólya-urn experiment (simulated by computer). Interestingly, parameters of the resulting bimodal beta function give a golden section ratio. These results show, that in this highly interesting autocatalysis two or even perhaps three catalytic cycles are cooperating. An attempt at constructing a "designed" Soai-type reaction system has also been made. PMID:25644371

  14. Frailty Models for Familial Risk with Application to Breast Cancer.

    PubMed

    Gorfine, Malka; Hsu, Li; Parmigiani, Giovanni

    2013-12-01

    In evaluating familial risk for disease we have two main statistical tasks: assessing the probability of carrying an inherited genetic mutation conferring higher risk; and predicting the absolute risk of developing diseases over time, for those individuals whose mutation status is known. Despite substantial progress, much remains unknown about the role of genetic and environmental risk factors, about the sources of variation in risk among families that carry high-risk mutations, and about the sources of familial aggregation beyond major Mendelian effects. These sources of heterogeneity contribute substantial variation in risk across families. In this paper we present simple and efficient methods for accounting for this variation in familial risk assessment. Our methods are based on frailty models. We implemented them in the context of generalizing Mendelian models of cancer risk, and compared our approaches to others that do not consider heterogeneity across families. Our extensive simulation study demonstrates that when predicting the risk of developing a disease over time conditional on carrier status, accounting for heterogeneity results in a substantial improvement in the area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic. On the other hand, the improvement for carriership probability estimation is more limited. We illustrate the utility of the proposed approach through the analysis of BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers in the Washington Ashkenazi Kin-Cohort Study of Breast Cancer. PMID:24678132

  15. Lunar Landing Operational Risk Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mattenberger, Chris; Putney, Blake; Rust, Randy; Derkowski, Brian

    2010-01-01

    Characterizing the risk of spacecraft goes beyond simply modeling equipment reliability. Some portions of the mission require complex interactions between system elements that can lead to failure without an actual hardware fault. Landing risk is currently the least characterized aspect of the Altair lunar lander and appears to result from complex temporal interactions between pilot, sensors, surface characteristics and vehicle capabilities rather than hardware failures. The Lunar Landing Operational Risk Model (LLORM) seeks to provide rapid and flexible quantitative insight into the risks driving the landing event and to gauge sensitivities of the vehicle to changes in system configuration and mission operations. The LLORM takes a Monte Carlo based approach to estimate the operational risk of the Lunar Landing Event and calculates estimates of the risk of Loss of Mission (LOM) - Abort Required and is Successful, Loss of Crew (LOC) - Vehicle Crashes or Cannot Reach Orbit, and Success. The LLORM is meant to be used during the conceptual design phase to inform decision makers transparently of the reliability impacts of design decisions, to identify areas of the design which may require additional robustness, and to aid in the development and flow-down of requirements.

  16. A strict test of stellar evolution models: The absolute dimensions of the massive benchmark eclipsing binary V578 Mon

    SciTech Connect

    Garcia, E. V.; Stassun, Keivan G.; Pavlovski, K.; Hensberge, H.; Chew, Y. Gómez Maqueo; Claret, A.

    2014-09-01

    We determine the absolute dimensions of the eclipsing binary V578 Mon, a detached system of two early B-type stars (B0V + B1V, P = 2.40848 days) in the star-forming region NGC 2244 of the Rosette Nebula. From the light curve analysis of 40 yr of photometry and the analysis of HERMES spectra, we find radii of 5.41 ± 0.04 R{sub ☉} and 4.29 ± 0.05 R{sub ☉}, and temperatures of 30,000 ± 500 K and 25,750 ± 435 K, respectively. We find that our disentangled component spectra for V578 Mon agree well with previous spectral disentangling from the literature. We also reconfirm the previous spectroscopic orbit of V578 Mon finding that masses of 14.54 ± 0.08 M{sub ☉} and 10.29 ± 0.06 M{sub ☉} are fully compatible with the new analysis. We compare the absolute dimensions to the rotating models of the Geneva and Utrecht groups and the models of the Granada group. We find that all three sets of models marginally reproduce the absolute dimensions of both stars with a common age within the uncertainty for gravity-effective temperature isochrones. However, there are some apparent age discrepancies for the corresponding mass-radius isochrones. Models with larger convective overshoot, >0.35, worked best. Combined with our previously determined apsidal motion of 0.07089{sub −0.00013}{sup +0.00021} deg cycle{sup –1}, we compute the internal structure constants (tidal Love number) for the Newtonian and general relativistic contribution to the apsidal motion as log k {sub 2} = –1.975 ± 0.017 and log k {sub 2} = –3.412 ± 0.018, respectively. We find the relativistic contribution to the apsidal motion to be small, <4%. We find that the prediction of log k {sub 2,theo} = –2.005 ± 0.025 of the Granada models fully agrees with our observed log k {sub 2}.

  17. Prediction of absolute risk of fragility fracture at 10 years in a Spanish population: validation of the WHO FRAX ™ tool in Spain

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Age-related bone loss is asymptomatic, and the morbidity of osteoporosis is secondary to the fractures that occur. Common sites of fracture include the spine, hip, forearm and proximal humerus. Fractures at the hip incur the greatest morbidity and mortality and give rise to the highest direct costs for health services. Their incidence increases exponentially with age. Independently changes in population demography, the age - and sex- specific incidence of osteoporotic fractures appears to be increasing in developing and developed countries. This could mean more than double the expected burden of osteoporotic fractures in the next 50 years. Methods/Design To assess the predictive power of the WHO FRAX™ tool to identify the subjects with the highest absolute risk of fragility fracture at 10 years in a Spanish population, a predictive validation study of the tool will be carried out. For this purpose, the participants recruited by 1999 will be assessed. These were referred to scan-DXA Department from primary healthcare centres, non hospital and hospital consultations. Study population: Patients attended in the national health services integrated into a FRIDEX cohort with at least one Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) measurement and one extensive questionnaire related to fracture risk factors. Measurements: At baseline bone mineral density measurement using DXA, clinical fracture risk factors questionnaire, dietary calcium intake assessment, history of previous fractures, and related drugs. Follow up by telephone interview to know fragility fractures in the 10 years with verification in electronic medical records and also to know the number of falls in the last year. The absolute risk of fracture will be estimated using the FRAX™ tool from the official web site. Discussion Since more than 10 years ago numerous publications have recognised the importance of other risk factors for new osteoporotic fractures in addition to low BMD. The extension of a

  18. Absolute Identification by Relative Judgment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stewart, Neil; Brown, Gordon D. A.; Chater, Nick

    2005-01-01

    In unidimensional absolute identification tasks, participants identify stimuli that vary along a single dimension. Performance is surprisingly poor compared with discrimination of the same stimuli. Existing models assume that identification is achieved using long-term representations of absolute magnitudes. The authors propose an alternative…

  19. Revised Absolute Configuration of Sibiricumin A: Substituent Effects in Simplified Model Structures Used for Quantum Mechanical Predictions of Chiroptical Properties.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Dan; Li, Zheng-Qiu; Cao, Fei; Liang, Miao-Miao; Pittman, Charles U; Zhu, Hua-Jie; Li, Li; Yu, Shi-Shan

    2016-08-01

    This study discusses the choice of different simplified models used in computations of electronic circular dichroism (ECD) spectra and other chiroptical characteristics used to determine the absolute configuration (AC) of the complex natural product sibiricumin A. Sections of molecules containing one chiral center with one near an aromatic group have large effects on the ECD spectra. Conversely, when the phenyl group is present on a substituent without a nonstereogenic center, removal of this section will have little effect on ECD spectra. However, these nonstereogenic-center-containing sections have large effects on calculated optical rotations (OR) values since the OR value is more sensitive to the geometries of sections in a molecule. In this study, the wrong AC of sibiricumin A was reassigned as (7R,8S,1'R,7'R,8'S)-. Chirality 28:612-617, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:27428019

  20. A 2015 International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) candidate model based on Swarm's experimental absolute magnetometer vector mode data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vigneron, Pierre; Hulot, Gauthier; Olsen, Nils; Léger, Jean-Michel; Jager, Thomas; Brocco, Laura; Sirol, Olivier; Coïsson, Pierdavide; Lalanne, Xavier; Chulliat, Arnaud; Bertrand, François; Boness, Axel; Fratter, Isabelle

    2015-06-01

    Each of the three satellites of the European Space Agency Swarm mission carries an absolute scalar magnetometer (ASM) that provides the nominal 1-Hz scalar data of the mission for both science and calibration purposes. These ASM instruments, however, also deliver autonomous 1-Hz experimental vector data. Here, we report on how ASM-only scalar and vector data from the Alpha and Bravo satellites between November 29, 2013 (a week after launch) and September 25, 2014 (for on-time delivery of the model on October 1, 2014) could be used to build a very valuable candidate model for the 2015.0 International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF). A parent model was first computed, describing the geomagnetic field of internal origin up to degree and order 40 in a spherical harmonic representation and including a constant secular variation up to degree and order 8. This model was next simply forwarded to epoch 2015.0 and truncated at degree and order 13. The resulting ASM-only 2015.0 IGRF candidate model is compared to analogous models derived from the mission's nominal data and to the now-published final 2015.0 IGRF model. Differences among models mainly highlight uncertainties enhanced by the limited geographical distribution of the selected data set (essentially due to a lack of availability of data at high northern latitude satisfying nighttime conditions at the end of the time period considered). These appear to be comparable to differences classically observed among IGRF candidate models. These positive results led the ASM-only 2015.0 IGRF candidate model to contribute to the construction of the final 2015.0 IGRF model.

  1. Models for computing combat risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jelinek, Jan

    2002-07-01

    Combat always involves uncertainty and uncertainty entails risk. To ensure that a combat task is prosecuted with the desired probability of success, the task commander has to devise an appropriate task force and then adjust it continuously in the course of battle. In order to do so, he has to evaluate how the probability of task success is related to the structure, capabilities and numerical strengths of combatants. For this purpose, predictive models of combat dynamics for combats in which the combatants fire asynchronously at random instants are developed from the first principles. Combats involving forces with both unlimited and limited ammunition supply are studied and modeled by stochastic Markov processes. In addition to the Markov models, another class of models first proposed by Brown was explored. The models compute directly the probability of win, in which we are primarily interested, without integrating the state probability equations. Experiments confirm that they produce exactly the same results at much lower computational cost.

  2. The Dynamics of Scaling: A Memory-Based Anchor Model of Category Rating and Absolute Identification

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Petrov, Alexander A.; Anderson, John R.

    2005-01-01

    A memory-based scaling model--ANCHOR--is proposed and tested. The perceived magnitude of the target stimulus is compared with a set of anchors in memory. Anchor selection is probabilistic and sensitive to similarity, base-level strength, and recency. The winning anchor provides a reference point near the target and thereby converts the global…

  3. Intelligent adversary risk analysis: a bioterrorism risk management model.

    PubMed

    Parnell, Gregory S; Smith, Christopher M; Moxley, Frederick I

    2010-01-01

    The tragic events of 9/11 and the concerns about the potential for a terrorist or hostile state attack with weapons of mass destruction have led to an increased emphasis on risk analysis for homeland security. Uncertain hazards (natural and engineering) have been successfully analyzed using probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). Unlike uncertain hazards, terrorists and hostile states are intelligent adversaries who can observe our vulnerabilities and dynamically adapt their plans and actions to achieve their objectives. This article compares uncertain hazard risk analysis with intelligent adversary risk analysis, describes the intelligent adversary risk analysis challenges, and presents a probabilistic defender-attacker-defender model to evaluate the baseline risk and the potential risk reduction provided by defender investments. The model includes defender decisions prior to an attack; attacker decisions during the attack; defender actions after an attack; and the uncertainties of attack implementation, detection, and consequences. The risk management model is demonstrated with an illustrative bioterrorism problem with notional data. PMID:20002893

  4. A probabilistic model of absolute auditory thresholds and its possible physiological basis.

    PubMed

    Heil, Peter; Neubauer, Heinrich; Tetschke, Manuel; Irvine, Dexter R F

    2013-01-01

    Detection thresholds for auditory stimuli, specified in terms of their -amplitude or level, depend on the stimulus temporal envelope and decrease with increasing stimulus duration. The neural mechanisms underlying these fundamental across-species observations are not fully understood. Here, we present a "continuous look" model, according to which the stimulus gives rise to stochastic neural detection events whose probability of occurrence is proportional to the 3rd power of the low-pass filtered, time-varying stimulus amplitude. Threshold is reached when a criterion number of events have occurred (probability summation). No long-term integration is required. We apply the model to an extensive set of thresholds measured in humans for tones of different envelopes and durations and find it to fit well. Subtle differences at long durations may be due to limited attention resources. We confirm the probabilistic nature of the detection events by analyses of simple reaction times and verify the exponent of 3 by validating model predictions for binaural thresholds from monaural thresholds. The exponent originates in the auditory periphery, possibly in the intrinsic Ca(2+) cooperativity of the Ca(2+) sensor involved in exocytosis from inner hair cells. It results in growth of the spike rate of auditory-nerve fibers (ANFs) with the 3rd power of the stimulus amplitude before saturating (Heil et al., J Neurosci 31:15424-15437, 2011), rather than with its square (i.e., with stimulus intensity), as is commonly assumed. Our work therefore suggests a link between detection thresholds and a key biochemical reaction in the receptor cells. PMID:23716205

  5. Inherently mass-conservative version of the semi-Lagrangian Absolute Vorticity (SL-AV) atmospheric model dynamical core

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shashkin, V. V.; Tolstykh, M. A.

    2013-09-01

    The semi-Lagrangian Absolute Vorticity (SL-AV) atmospheric model is the global semi-Lagrangian hydrostatic model used for operational medium-range and seasonal forecasts at Hydrometeorological centre of Russia. The distinct feature of SL-AV dynamical core is the semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian vorticity-divergence formulation on the unstaggered grid. Semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian approach allows for long time steps while violates the global and local mass-conservation. In particular, the total mass in simulations with semi-Lagrangian models can drift significantly if no aposteriori mass-fixing algorithms are applied. However, the global mass-fixing algorithms degrade the local mass conservation. The inherently mass-conservative version of SL-AV model dynamical core presented in the article ensures global and local mass conservation without mass-fixing algorithms. The mass conservation is achieved with the introduction of the finite-volume semi-Lagrangian discretization for continuity equation based on the 3-D extension of the conservative cascade semi-Lagrangian transport scheme (CCS). The numerical experiments show that the presented new version of SL-AV dynamical core combines the accuracy and stability of the standard SL-AV dynamical core with the mass-conservation properties. The results of the mountain induced Rossby wave test and baroclinic instability test for mass-conservative dynamical core are found to be in agreement with the results available in literature.

  6. Inherently mass-conservative version of the semi-Lagrangian absolute vorticity (SL-AV) atmospheric model dynamical core

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shashkin, V. V.; Tolstykh, M. A.

    2014-02-01

    The semi-Lagrangian absolute vorticity (SL-AV) atmospheric model is the global semi-Lagrangian hydrostatic model used for operational medium-range and seasonal forecasts at the Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia. The distinct feature of the SL-AV dynamical core is the semi-implicit, semi-Lagrangian vorticity-divergence formulation on the unstaggered grid. A semi-implicit, semi-Lagrangian approach allows for long time steps but violates the global and local mass conservation. In particular, the total mass in simulations with semi-Lagrangian models can drift significantly if no a posteriori mass-fixing algorithm is applied. However, the global mass-fixing algorithms degrade the local mass conservation. The new inherently mass-conservative version of the SL-AV model dynamical core presented here ensures global and local mass conservation without mass-fixing algorithms. The mass conservation is achieved with the introduction of the finite-volume, semi-Lagrangian discretization for a continuity equation based on the 3-D extension of the conservative cascade semi-Lagrangian transport scheme (CCS). Numerical experiments show that the new version of the SL-AV dynamical core presented combines the accuracy and stability of the standard SL-AV dynamical core with the mass-conservation properties. The results of the mountain-induced Rossby-wave test and baroclinic instability test for the mass-conservative dynamical core are found to be in agreement with the results available in the literature.

  7. Dependency of slab geometry on absolute velocities and conditions for cyclicity: insights from numerical modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gibert, G.; Gerbault, M.; Hassani, R.; Tric, E.

    2012-05-01

    The aim of this study is to quantify the relationship between the kinematics of subduction, deformation in the overriding plate and the evolution of slab geometry. A 2-D finite element numerical code is used, and a first objective consists in benchmarking previously published analogue models. Far-field plate velocities are applied, and once the subducting plate reaches the 660 km discontinuity, modelled as a rigid base, we obtain two different forms or styles of subduction that depend on the overriding plate velocity vop: if vop > 0, the slab lies forwards on the 660 km discontinuity (style 1), and if vop≤ 0, the slab lies backwards on the discontinuity (style 2). We also obtain a cyclic pattern with the slab folding on itself repeatedly when vsp > 0 and 2vop+vsp > 0 (where vsp is the subducting plate velocity). These conditions result from the analysis of several simulations in which the subduction velocities and plate viscosities are varied. When the slab periodically folds on the 660 km discontinuity, periods of shallow slab dip and compression in the overriding plate are followed by periods of slab steepening and relative extension in the overriding plate. Folding periodicity is controlled by the slab viscosity and subduction velocity. When a low-viscosity zone is included in the overriding plate, the trench motion is effectively decoupled from the overriding plate velocity, therefore allowing it to be directly controlled by the deep dynamics of the slab. For the cyclic style 2 corresponding to forward folding of the slab, the low-viscosity region in the overriding plate increases the stress amplitudes oscillations, the trench motion and the folding periodicity with time. Therefore the strength of the entire overriding plate is shown to directly control the dynamics of subduction. Using the Nazca and South American plate velocities we produce models of cyclic folding with a period of ca. 22 Ma and a minimal dip angle of ca. 10°. Episodic folding of the slab

  8. A Quantitative Software Risk Assessment Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, Alice

    2002-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews a risk assessment model as applied to software development. the presentation uses graphs to demonstrate basic concepts of software reliability. It also discusses the application to the risk model to the software development life cycle.

  9. Low absolute lymphocyte count and addition of rituximab confer high risk for interstitial pneumonia in patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma.

    PubMed

    Huang, Yu-Chung; Liu, Chia-Jen; Liu, Chun-Yu; Pai, Jih-Tung; Hong, Ying-Chung; Teng, Hao-Wei; Hsiao, Liang-Tsai; Chao, Ta-Chung; Gau, Jyh-Pyng; Liu, Jin-Hwang; Hsu, Hui-Chi; Chiou, Tzeon-Jye; Chen, Po-Min; Yu, Yuan-Bin; Tzeng, Cheng-Hwai

    2011-10-01

    Several small-scale studies have reported pulmonary toxicity among patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) receiving rituximab-containing chemotherapy, though whether the use of rituximab predisposes to interstitial pneumonia (IP) remains unclear. This retrospective study was intended to identify the characteristics and risk factors of IP in patients with DLBCL. Between 2000 and 2009, 529 consecutive patients with DLBCL receiving first-line tri-weekly COP- or CHOP-based chemotherapy with or without rituximab were enrolled as subjects. IP was defined as diffuse pulmonary interstitial infiltrates found on computed tomography scans in conjunction with respiratory symptoms. IP was observed in 26 patients (4.9%), six of whom were confirmed with Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia. The median number of chemotherapy courses before IP was four cycles. Using multivariate analysis, absolute lymphocyte count less than 1×10(9)/l at diagnosis [odds ratio (OR) 2.75, p=0.014] and the addition of rituximab to chemotherapy (OR 4.56, p=0.003) were identified as independent risk factors for IP. In conclusion, the incidence of IP is increased in patients with DLBCL receiving rituximab-containing chemotherapy. Specific subgroups with lymphopenia at diagnosis may justify close scrutiny to detect pulmonary complications. PMID:21647583

  10. Decent wage is more important than absolution of debts: A smallholder socio-hydrological modelling framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pande, Saket; Savenije, Hubert

    2015-04-01

    We present a framework to understand the socio-hydrological system dynamics of a small holder. Small holders are farmers who own less than 2 ha of farmland. It couples the dynamics of 6 main variables that are most relevant at the scale of a small holder: local storage (soil moisture and other water storage), capital, knowledge, livestock production, soil fertility and grass biomass production. The hydroclimatic variability is at sub-annual scale and influences the socio-hydrology at annual scale. The model incorporates rule-based adaptation mechanisms (for example: adjusting expenditures on food and fertilizers, selling livestocks etc.) of small holders when they face adverse socio-hydrological conditions, such as low annual rainfall, higher intra-annual variability in rainfall or variability in agricultural prices. We apply the framework to understand the socio-hydrology of a sugarcane small holder in Aurangabad, Maharashtra. This district has witnessed suicides of many sugarcane farmers who could not extricate themselves out of the debt trap. These farmers lack irrigation and are susceptible to fluctuating sugar prices and intra-annual hydro-climatic variability. We study the sensitivity of annual total capital averaged over 30 years, an indicator of small holder wellbeing, to initial capital that a small holder starts with and the prevalent wage rates. We find that a smallholder well being is low (below Rs 30000 per annum, a threshold above which a smallholder can afford a basic standard of living) and is rather insensitive to initial capital at low wage rates. Initial capital perhaps matters to small holder livelihoods at higher wage rates. Further, the small holder system appears to be resilient at around Rs 115/mandays in the sense that small perturbations in wage rates around this rate still sustains the smallholder above the basic standard of living. Our results thus indicate that government intervention to absolve the debt of farmers is not enough. It

  11. NGNP Risk Management Database: A Model for Managing Risk

    SciTech Connect

    John Collins; John M. Beck

    2011-11-01

    The Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Risk Management System (RMS) is a database used to maintain the project risk register. The RMS also maps risk reduction activities to specific identified risks. Further functionality of the RMS includes mapping reactor suppliers Design Data Needs (DDNs) to risk reduction tasks and mapping Phenomena Identification Ranking Table (PIRTs) to associated risks. This document outlines the basic instructions on how to use the RMS. This document constitutes Revision 1 of the NGNP Risk Management Database: A Model for Managing Risk. It incorporates the latest enhancements to the RMS. The enhancements include six new custom views of risk data - Impact/Consequence, Tasks by Project Phase, Tasks by Status, Tasks by Project Phase/Status, Tasks by Impact/WBS, and Tasks by Phase/Impact/WBS.

  12. Development and Application of Chronic Disease Risk Prediction Models

    PubMed Central

    Oh, Sun Min; Stefani, Katherine M.

    2014-01-01

    Currently, non-communicable chronic diseases are a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, and a large proportion of chronic diseases are preventable through risk factor management. However, the prevention efficacy at the individual level is not yet satisfactory. Chronic disease prediction models have been developed to assist physicians and individuals in clinical decision-making. A chronic disease prediction model assesses multiple risk factors together and estimates an absolute disease risk for the individual. Accurate prediction of an individual's future risk for a certain disease enables the comparison of benefits and risks of treatment, the costs of alternative prevention strategies, and selection of the most efficient strategy for the individual. A large number of chronic disease prediction models, especially targeting cardiovascular diseases and cancers, have been suggested, and some of them have been adopted in the clinical practice guidelines and recommendations of many countries. Although few chronic disease prediction tools have been suggested in the Korean population, their clinical utility is not as high as expected. This article reviews methodologies that are commonly used for developing and evaluating a chronic disease prediction model and discusses the current status of chronic disease prediction in Korea. PMID:24954311

  13. Comparing Absolute Error with Squared Error for Evaluating Empirical Models of Continuous Variables: Compositions, Implications, and Consequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, J.

    2014-12-01

    Reducing modeling error is often a major concern of empirical geophysical models. However, modeling errors can be defined in different ways: When the response variable is continuous, the most commonly used metrics are squared (SQ) and absolute (ABS) errors. For most applications, ABS error is the more natural, but SQ error is mathematically more tractable, so is often used as a substitute with little scientific justification. Existing literature has not thoroughly investigated the implications of using SQ error in place of ABS error, especially not geospatially. This study compares the two metrics through the lens of bias-variance decomposition (BVD). BVD breaks down the expected modeling error of each model evaluation point into bias (systematic error), variance (model sensitivity), and noise (observation instability). It offers a way to probe the composition of various error metrics. I analytically derived the BVD of ABS error and compared it with the well-known SQ error BVD, and found that not only the two metrics measure the characteristics of the probability distributions of modeling errors differently, but also the effects of these characteristics on the overall expected error are different. Most notably, under SQ error all bias, variance, and noise increase expected error, while under ABS error certain parts of the error components reduce expected error. Since manipulating these subtractive terms is a legitimate way to reduce expected modeling error, SQ error can never capture the complete story embedded in ABS error. I then empirically compared the two metrics with a supervised remote sensing model for mapping surface imperviousness. Pair-wise spatially-explicit comparison for each error component showed that SQ error overstates all error components in comparison to ABS error, especially variance-related terms. Hence, substituting ABS error with SQ error makes model performance appear worse than it actually is, and the analyst would more likely accept a

  14. Teaching Absolute Value Meaningfully

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wade, Angela

    2012-01-01

    What is the meaning of absolute value? And why do teachers teach students how to solve absolute value equations? Absolute value is a concept introduced in first-year algebra and then reinforced in later courses. Various authors have suggested instructional methods for teaching absolute value to high school students (Wei 2005; Stallings-Roberts…

  15. A methodological survey of the analysis, reporting and interpretation of Absolute Risk ReductiOn in systematic revieWs (ARROW): a study protocol

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Clinicians, providers and guideline panels use absolute effects to weigh the advantages and downsides of treatment alternatives. Relative measures have the potential to mislead readers. However, little is known about the reporting of absolute measures in systematic reviews. The objectives of our study are to determine the proportion of systematic reviews that report absolute measures of effect for the most important outcomes, and ascertain how they are analyzed, reported and interpreted. Methods/design We will conduct a methodological survey of systematic reviews published in 2010. We will conduct a 1:1 stratified random sampling of Cochrane vs. non-Cochrane systematic reviews. We will calculate the proportion of systematic reviews reporting at least one absolute estimate of effect for the most patient-important outcome for the comparison of interest. We will conduct multivariable logistic regression analyses with the reporting of an absolute estimate of effect as the dependent variable and pre-specified study characteristics as the independent variables. For systematic reviews reporting an absolute estimate of effect, we will document the methods used for the analysis, reporting and interpretation of the absolute estimate. Discussion Our methodological survey will inform current practices regarding reporting of absolute estimates in systematic reviews. Our findings may influence recommendations on reporting, conduct and interpretation of absolute estimates. Our results are likely to be of interest to systematic review authors, funding agencies, clinicians, guideline developers and journal editors. PMID:24330779

  16. The reaction H + C4H2 - Absolute rate constant measurement and implication for atmospheric modeling of Titan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nava, D. F.; Mitchell, M. B.; Stief, L. J.

    1986-04-01

    The absolute rate constant for the reaction H + C4H2 has been measured over the temperature (T) interval 210-423 K, using the technique of flash photolysis-resonance fluorescence. At each of the five temperatures employed, the results were independent of variations in C4H2 concentration, total pressure of Ar or N2, and flash intensity (i.e., the initial H concentration). The rate constant, k, was found to be equal to 1.39 x 10 to the -10th exp (-1184/T) cu cm/s, with an error of one standard deviation. The Arrhenius parameters at the high pressure limit determined here for the H + C4H2 reaction are consistent with those for the corresponding reactions of H with C2H2 and C3H4. Implications of the kinetic carbon chemistry results, particularly those at low temperature, are considered for models of the atmospheric carbon chemistry of Titan. The rate of this reaction, relative to that of the analogous, but slower, reaction of H + C2H2, appears to make H + C4H2 a very feasible reaction pathway for effective conversion of H atoms to molecular hydrogen in the stratosphere of Titan.

  17. Constraining the Absolute Orientation of eta Carinae's Binary Orbit: A 3-D Dynamical Model for the Broad [Fe III] Emission

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Madura, T. I.; Gull, T. R.; Owocki, S. P.; Groh, J. H.; Okazaki, A. T.; Russell, C. M. P.

    2011-01-01

    We present a three-dimensional (3-D) dynamical model for the broad [Fe III] emission observed in Eta Carinae using the Hubble Space Telescope/Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph (HST/STIS). This model is based on full 3-D Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) simulations of Eta Car's binary colliding winds. Radiative transfer codes are used to generate synthetic spectro-images of [Fe III] emission line structures at various observed orbital phases and STIS slit position angles (PAs). Through a parameter study that varies the orbital inclination i, the PA(theta) that the orbital plane projection of the line-of-sight makes with the apastron side of the semi-major axis, and the PA on the sky of the orbital axis, we are able, for the first time, to tightly constrain the absolute 3-D orientation of the binary orbit. To simultaneously reproduce the blue-shifted emission arcs observed at orbital phase 0.976, STIS slit PA = +38deg, and the temporal variations in emission seen at negative slit PAs, the binary needs to have an i approx. = 130deg to 145deg, Theta approx. = -15deg to +30deg, and an orbital axis projected on the sky at a P A approx. = 302deg to 327deg east of north. This represents a system with an orbital axis that is closely aligned with the inferred polar axis of the Homunculus nebula, in 3-D. The companion star, Eta(sub B), thus orbits clockwise on the sky and is on the observer's side of the system at apastron. This orientation has important implications for theories for the formation of the Homunculus and helps lay the groundwork for orbital modeling to determine the stellar masses.

  18. ABSOLUTE DIMENSIONS OF THE G7+K7 ECLIPSING BINARY STAR IM VIRGINIS: DISCREPANCIES WITH STELLAR EVOLUTION MODELS

    SciTech Connect

    Morales, Juan Carlos; Marschall, Laurence A.; Brehm, William

    2009-12-10

    We report extensive spectroscopic and differential photometric BVRI observations of the active, detached, 1.309-day double-lined eclipsing binary IM Vir, composed of a G7-type primary and a K7 secondary. With these observations, we derive accurate absolute masses and radii of M {sub 1} = 0.981 +- 0.012 M {sub sun}, M {sub 2} = 0.6644 +- 0.0048 M {sub sun}, R {sub 1} = 1.061 +- 0.016 R {sub sun}, and R {sub 2} = 0.681 +- 0.013 R {sub sun} for the primary and secondary, with relative errors under 2%. The effective temperatures are 5570 +- 100 K and 4250 +- 130 K, respectively. The significant difference in mass makes this a favorable case for comparison with stellar evolution theory. We find that both stars are larger than the models predict, by 3.7% for the primary and 7.5% for the secondary, as well as cooler than expected, by 100 K and 150 K, respectively. These discrepancies are in line with previously reported differences in low-mass stars, and are believed to be caused by chromospheric activity, which is not accounted for in current models. The effect is not confined to low-mass stars: the rapidly rotating primary of IM Vir joins the growing list of objects of near-solar mass (but still with convective envelopes) that show similar anomalies. The comparison with the models suggests an age of 2.4 Gyr for the system, and a metallicity of [Fe/H] approx-0.3 that is consistent with other indications, but requires confirmation.

  19. Eosinophil count - absolute

    MedlinePlus

    Eosinophils; Absolute eosinophil count ... the white blood cell count to give the absolute eosinophil count. ... than 500 cells per microliter (cells/mcL). Normal value ranges may vary slightly among different laboratories. Talk ...

  20. Modeling Research Project Risks with Fuzzy Maps

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bodea, Constanta Nicoleta; Dascalu, Mariana Iuliana

    2009-01-01

    The authors propose a risks evaluation model for research projects. The model is based on fuzzy inference. The knowledge base for fuzzy process is built with a causal and cognitive map of risks. The map was especially developed for research projects, taken into account their typical lifecycle. The model was applied to an e-testing research…

  1. Constraining the absolute orientation of η Carinae's binary orbit: a 3D dynamical model for the broad [Fe III] emission

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Madura, T. I.; Gull, T. R.; Owocki, S. P.; Groh, J. H.; Okazaki, A. T.; Russell, C. M. P.

    2012-03-01

    We present a three-dimensional (3D) dynamical model for the broad [Fe III] emission observed in η Carinae using the Hubble Space Telescope/Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph (STIS). This model is based on full 3D smoothed particle hydrodynamics simulations of η Car's binary colliding winds. Radiative transfer codes are used to generate synthetic spectroimages of [Fe III] emission-line structures at various observed orbital phases and STIS slit position angles (PAs). Through a parameter study that varies the orbital inclination i, the PA θ that the orbital plane projection of the line of sight makes with the apastron side of the semimajor axis and the PA on the sky of the orbital axis, we are able, for the first time, to tightly constrain the absolute 3D orientation of the binary orbit. To simultaneously reproduce the blueshifted emission arcs observed at orbital phase 0.976, STIS slit PA =+38° and the temporal variations in emission seen at negative slit PAs, the binary needs to have an i≈ 130° to 145°, θ≈-15° to +30° and an orbital axis projected on the sky at a PA ≈ 302° to 327° east of north. This represents a system with an orbital axis that is closely aligned with the inferred polar axis of the Homunculus nebula, in 3D. The companion star, ηB, thus orbits clockwise on the sky and is on the observer's side of the system at apastron. This orientation has important implications for theories for the formation of the Homunculus and helps lay the groundwork for orbital modelling to determine the stellar masses. Footnotes<label>1</label>Low- and high-ionization refer here to atomic species with ionizations potentials (IPs) below and above the IP of hydrogen, 13.6 eV.<label>2</label>Measured in degrees from north to east.<label>3</label>θ is the same as the angle φ defined in fig. 3 of O08.<label>4</label>The outer edge looks circular only because this marks the edge of the spherical computational domain of the SPH simulation.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/1028098','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/1028098"><span id="translatedtitle">Atmospheric Longwave Irradiance Uncertainty: Pyrgeometers Compared to an <span class="hlt">Absolute</span> Sky-Scanning Radiometer, Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer, and Radiative Transfer <span class="hlt">Model</span> Calculations</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Philipona, J. R.; Dutton, Ellsworth G.; Stoffel, T.; Michalsky, Joseph J.; Reda, I.; Stifter, Armin; Wendling, Peter; Wood, Norm; Clough, Shepard A.; Mlawer, Eli J.; Anderson, Gail; Revercomb, Henry E.; Shippert, Timothy R.</p> <p>2001-06-04</p> <p>Because atmospheric longwave radiation is one of the most fundamental elements of an expected climate change, there has been a strong interest in improving measurements and <span class="hlt">model</span> calculations in recent years. Important questions are how reliable and consistent are atmospheric longwave radiation measurements and calculations and what are the uncertainties? The First International Pyrgeometer and <span class="hlt">Absolute</span> Sky-scanning Radiometer Comparison, which was held at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program's Souther Great Plains site in Oklahoma, answers these questions at least for midlatitude summer conditions and reflects the state of the art for atmospheric longwave radiation measurements and calculations. The 15 participating pyrgeometers were all calibration-traced standard instruments chosen from a broad international community. Two new chopped pyrgeometers also took part in the comparison. And <span class="hlt">absolute</span> sky-scanning radiometer (ASR), which includes a pyroelectric detector and a reference blackbody source, was used for the first time as a reference standard instrument to field calibrate pyrgeometers during clear-sky nighttime measurements. Owner-provided and uniformly determined blackbody calibration factors were compared. Remarkable improvements and higher pyrgeometer precision were achieved with field calibration factors. Results of nighttime and daytime pyrgeometer precision and <span class="hlt">absolute</span> uncertainty are presented for eight consecutive days of measurements, during which period downward longwave irradiance varied between 260 and 420 W m-2. Comparisons between pyrgeometers and the <span class="hlt">absolute</span> ASR, the atmospheric emitted radiance interferometer, and radiative transfer <span class="hlt">models</span> LBLRTM and MODTRAN show a surprisingly good agreement of <2 W m-2 for nighttime atmospheric longwave irradiance measurements and calculations.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27181372','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27181372"><span id="translatedtitle">Genetic <span class="hlt">risks</span> and genetic <span class="hlt">model</span> specification.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Zheng, Gang; Zhang, Wei; Xu, Jinfeng; Yuan, Ao; Li, Qizhai; Gastwirth, Joseph L</p> <p>2016-08-21</p> <p>Genetic <span class="hlt">risks</span> and genetic <span class="hlt">models</span> are often used in design and analysis of genetic epidemiology studies. A genetic <span class="hlt">model</span> is defined in terms of two genetic <span class="hlt">risk</span> measures: genotype relative <span class="hlt">risk</span> and odds ratio. The impacts of choosing a <span class="hlt">risk</span> measure on the resulting genetic <span class="hlt">models</span> are studied in the power to detect association and deviation from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium in cases using genetic relative <span class="hlt">risk</span>. Extensive simulations demonstrate that the power of a study to detect associations using odds ratio is lower than that using relative <span class="hlt">risk</span> with the same value when other parameters are fixed. When the Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium holds in the general population, the genetic <span class="hlt">model</span> can be inferred by the deviation from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium in only cases. Furthermore, it is more efficient than that based on the deviation from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium in all cases and controls. PMID:27181372</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20060043248&hterms=feather&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D40%26Ntt%3Dfeather','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20060043248&hterms=feather&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D40%26Ntt%3Dfeather"><span id="translatedtitle">Requirements based system <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">modeling</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Meshkat, Leila; Cornford, Steven; Feather, Martin</p> <p>2004-01-01</p> <p>The problem that we address in this paper is assessing the expected degree of success of the system or mission based on the degree to which each requirement is satisfied and the relative weight of the requirements. We assume a complete list of the requirements, the relevant <span class="hlt">risk</span> elements and their probability of occurrence and the quantified effect of the <span class="hlt">risk</span> elements on the requirements. In order to assess the degree to which each requirement is satisfied, we need to determine the effect of the various <span class="hlt">risk</span> elements on the requirement.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22817845','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22817845"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Modeling</span> extreme <span class="hlt">risks</span> in ecology.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Burgman, Mark; Franklin, James; Hayes, Keith R; Hosack, Geoffrey R; Peters, Gareth W; Sisson, Scott A</p> <p>2012-11-01</p> <p>Extreme <span class="hlt">risks</span> in ecology are typified by circumstances in which data are sporadic or unavailable, understanding is poor, and decisions are urgently needed. Expert judgments are pervasive and disagreements among experts are commonplace. We outline approaches to evaluating extreme <span class="hlt">risks</span> in ecology that rely on stochastic simulation, with a particular focus on methods to evaluate the likelihood of extinction and quasi-extinction of threatened species, and the likelihood of establishment and spread of invasive pests. We evaluate the importance of assumptions in these assessments and the potential of some new approaches to account for these uncertainties, including hierarchical estimation procedures and generalized extreme value distributions. We conclude by examining the treatment of consequences in extreme <span class="hlt">risk</span> analysis in ecology and how expert judgment may better be harnessed to evaluate extreme <span class="hlt">risks</span>. PMID:22817845</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21232062','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21232062"><span id="translatedtitle">A methodology for <span class="hlt">modeling</span> regional terrorism <span class="hlt">risk</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Chatterjee, Samrat; Abkowitz, Mark D</p> <p>2011-07-01</p> <p>Over the past decade, terrorism <span class="hlt">risk</span> has become a prominent consideration in protecting the well-being of individuals and organizations. More recently, there has been interest in not only quantifying terrorism <span class="hlt">risk</span>, but also placing it in the context of an all-hazards environment in which consideration is given to accidents and natural hazards, as well as intentional acts. This article discusses the development of a regional terrorism <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment <span class="hlt">model</span> designed for this purpose. The approach taken is to <span class="hlt">model</span> terrorism <span class="hlt">risk</span> as a dependent variable, expressed in expected annual monetary terms, as a function of attributes of population concentration and critical infrastructure. This allows for an assessment of regional terrorism <span class="hlt">risk</span> in and of itself, as well as in relation to man-made accident and natural hazard <span class="hlt">risks</span>, so that mitigation resources can be allocated in an effective manner. The adopted methodology incorporates elements of two terrorism <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">modeling</span> approaches (event-based <span class="hlt">models</span> and <span class="hlt">risk</span> indicators), producing results that can be utilized at various jurisdictional levels. The validity, strengths, and limitations of the <span class="hlt">model</span> are discussed in the context of a case study application within the United States. PMID:21232062</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2004PhyA..338..166C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2004PhyA..338..166C"><span id="translatedtitle">Statistical <span class="hlt">models</span> for operational <span class="hlt">risk</span> management</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Cornalba, Chiara; Giudici, Paolo</p> <p>2004-07-01</p> <p>The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision has released, in the last few years, recommendations for the correct determination of the <span class="hlt">risks</span> to which a banking organization is subject. This concerns, in particular, operational <span class="hlt">risks</span>, which are all those management events that may determine unexpected losses. It is necessary to develop valid statistical <span class="hlt">models</span> to measure and, consequently, predict, such operational <span class="hlt">risks</span>. In the paper we present the possible approaches, including our own proposal, which is based on Bayesian networks.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11798109','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11798109"><span id="translatedtitle">Source apportionment of gaseous atmospheric pollutants by means of an <span class="hlt">absolute</span> principal component scores (APCS) receptor <span class="hlt">model</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Bruno, P; Caselli, M; de Gennaro, G; Traini, A</p> <p>2001-12-01</p> <p>A multivariate statistical method has been applied to apportion the atmospheric pollutant concentrations measured by automatic gas analyzers placed on a mobile laboratory for air quality monitoring in Taranto (Italy). In particular, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) followed by <span class="hlt">Absolute</span> Principal Component Scores (APCS) technique was performed to identify the number of emission sources and their contribution to measured concentrations of CO, NOx, benzene toluene m+p-Xylene (BTX). This procedure singled out two different sources that explain about 85% of collected data variance. PMID:11798109</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17089696','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17089696"><span id="translatedtitle">Quantitative <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">modeling</span> in aseptic manufacture.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Tidswell, Edward C; McGarvey, Bernard</p> <p>2006-01-01</p> <p>Expedient <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment of aseptic manufacturing processes offers unique opportunities for improved and sustained assurance of product quality. Contemporary <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessments applied to aseptic manufacturing processes, however, are commonly handicapped by assumptions and subjectivity, leading to inexactitude. Quantitative <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">modeling</span> augmented with Monte Carlo simulations represents a novel, innovative, and more efficient means of <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment. This technique relies upon fewer assumptions and removes subjectivity to more swiftly generate an improved, more realistic, quantitative estimate of <span class="hlt">risk</span>. The fundamental steps and requirements for an assessment of the <span class="hlt">risk</span> of bioburden ingress into aseptically manufactured products are described. A case study exemplifies how quantitative <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">modeling</span> and Monte Carlo simulations achieve a more rapid and improved determination of the <span class="hlt">risk</span> of bioburden ingress during the aseptic filling of a parenteral product. Although application of quantitative <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">modeling</span> is described here purely for the purpose of process improvement, the technique has far wider relevance in the assisted disposition of batches, cleanroom management, and the utilization of real-time data from rapid microbial monitoring technologies. PMID:17089696</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20512716','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20512716"><span id="translatedtitle">PRISM: a planned <span class="hlt">risk</span> information seeking <span class="hlt">model</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Kahlor, LeeAnn</p> <p>2010-06-01</p> <p>Recent attention on health-related information seeking has focused primarily on information seeking within specific health and health <span class="hlt">risk</span> contexts. This study attempts to shift some of that focus to individual-level variables that may impact health <span class="hlt">risk</span> information seeking across contexts. To locate these variables, the researcher posits an integrated <span class="hlt">model</span>, the Planned <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Information Seeking <span class="hlt">Model</span> (PRISM). The <span class="hlt">model</span>, which treats <span class="hlt">risk</span> information seeking as a deliberate (planned) behavior, maps variables found in the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB; Ajzen, 1991) and the <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Information Seeking and Processing <span class="hlt">Model</span> (RISP; Griffin, Dunwoody, & Neuwirth, 1999), and posits linkages among those variables. This effort is further informed by Kahlor's (2007) Augmented RISP, the Theory of Motivated Information Management (Afifi & Weiner, 2004), the Comprehensive <span class="hlt">Model</span> of Information Seeking (Johnson & Meischke, 1993), the Health Information Acquisition <span class="hlt">Model</span> (Freimuth, Stein, & Kean, 1989), and the Extended Parallel Processing <span class="hlt">Model</span> (Witte, 1998). The resulting integrated <span class="hlt">model</span> accounted for 59% of the variance in health <span class="hlt">risk</span> information-seeking intent and performed better than the TPB or the RISP alone. PMID:20512716</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3808381','PMC'); return false;" href="http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3808381"><span id="translatedtitle">Korean <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Assessment <span class="hlt">Model</span> for Breast Cancer <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Prediction</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Park, Boyoung; Ma, Seung Hyun; Shin, Aesun; Chang, Myung-Chul; Choi, Ji-Yeob; Kim, Sungwan; Han, Wonshik; Noh, Dong-Young; Ahn, Sei-Hyun; Kang, Daehee; Yoo, Keun-Young; Park, Sue K.</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>Purpose We evaluated the performance of the Gail <span class="hlt">model</span> for a Korean population and developed a Korean breast cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment tool (KoBCRAT) based upon equations developed for the Gail <span class="hlt">model</span> for predicting breast cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span>. Methods Using 3,789 sets of cases and controls, <span class="hlt">risk</span> factors for breast cancer among Koreans were identified. Individual probabilities were projected using Gail's equations and Korean hazard data. We compared the 5-year and lifetime <span class="hlt">risk</span> produced using the modified Gail <span class="hlt">model</span> which applied Korean incidence and mortality data and the parameter estimators from the original Gail <span class="hlt">model</span> with those produced using the KoBCRAT. We validated the KoBCRAT based on the expected/observed breast cancer incidence and area under the curve (AUC) using two Korean cohorts: the Korean Multicenter Cancer Cohort (KMCC) and National Cancer Center (NCC) cohort. Results The major <span class="hlt">risk</span> factors under the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at first full-term pregnancy, menopausal status, breastfeeding duration, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise, while those at and over the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at menopause, pregnancy experience, body mass index, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise. The modified Gail <span class="hlt">model</span> produced lower 5-year <span class="hlt">risk</span> for the cases than for the controls (p = 0.017), while the KoBCRAT produced higher 5-year and lifetime <span class="hlt">risk</span> for the cases than for the controls (p<0.001 and <0.001, respectively). The observed incidence of breast cancer in the two cohorts was similar to the expected incidence from the KoBCRAT (KMCC, p = 0.880; NCC, p = 0.878). The AUC using the KoBCRAT was 0.61 for the KMCC and 0.89 for the NCC cohort. Conclusions Our findings suggest that the KoBCRAT is a better tool for predicting the <span class="hlt">risk</span> of breast cancer in Korean women, especially urban women. PMID:24204664</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16797044','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16797044"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Modelling</span> suicide <span class="hlt">risk</span> in later life.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Lo, C F; Kwok, Cordelia M Y</p> <p>2006-08-01</p> <p>Affective disorder is generally regarded as the prominent <span class="hlt">risk</span> factor for suicide in the old age population. Despite the large number of empirical studies available in the literature, there is no attempt in <span class="hlt">modelling</span> the dynamics of an individual's level of suicide <span class="hlt">risk</span> theoretically yet. In particular, a dynamic <span class="hlt">model</span> which can simulate the time evolution of an individual's level of <span class="hlt">risk</span> for suicide and provide quantitative estimates of the probability of suicide <span class="hlt">risk</span> is still lacking. In the present study we apply the contingent claims analysis of credit <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">modelling</span> in the field of quantitative finance to derive a theoretical stochastic <span class="hlt">model</span> for estimation of the probability of suicide <span class="hlt">risk</span> in later life in terms of a signalling index of affective disorder. Our <span class="hlt">model</span> is based upon the hypothesis that the current state of affective disorder of a patient can be represented by a signalling index and exhibits stochastic movement and that a threshold of affective disorder, which signifies the occurrence of suicide, exists. According to the numerical results, the implications of our <span class="hlt">model</span> are consistent with the clinical findings. Hence, we believe that such a dynamic <span class="hlt">model</span> will be essential to the design of effective suicide prevention strategies in the target population of older adults, especially in the primary care setting. PMID:16797044</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=307217&keyword=dairy&actType=&TIMSType=+&TIMSSubTypeID=&DEID=&epaNumber=&ntisID=&archiveStatus=Both&ombCat=Any&dateBeginCreated=&dateEndCreated=&dateBeginPublishedPresented=&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&dateBeginCompleted=&dateEndCompleted=&personID=&role=Any&journalID=&publisherID=&sortBy=revisionDate&count=50&CFID=65039050&CFTOKEN=26966051','EPA-EIMS'); return false;" href="http://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=307217&keyword=dairy&actType=&TIMSType=+&TIMSSubTypeID=&DEID=&epaNumber=&ntisID=&archiveStatus=Both&ombCat=Any&dateBeginCreated=&dateEndCreated=&dateBeginPublishedPresented=&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&dateBeginCompleted=&dateEndCompleted=&personID=&role=Any&journalID=&publisherID=&sortBy=revisionDate&count=50&CFID=65039050&CFTOKEN=26966051"><span id="translatedtitle">Integrated Environmental <span class="hlt">Modeling</span>: Quantitative Microbial <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Assessment</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://oaspub.epa.gov/eims/query.page">EPA Science Inventory</a></p> <p></p> <p></p> <p>The presentation discusses the need for microbial assessments and presents a road map associated with quantitative microbial <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessments, through an integrated environmental <span class="hlt">modeling</span> approach. A brief introduction and the strengths of the current knowledge are illustrated. W...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26420555','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26420555"><span id="translatedtitle">Overpaying morbidity adjusters in <span class="hlt">risk</span> equalization <span class="hlt">models</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>van Kleef, R C; van Vliet, R C J A; van de Ven, W P M M</p> <p>2016-09-01</p> <p>Most competitive social health insurance markets include <span class="hlt">risk</span> equalization to compensate insurers for predictable variation in healthcare expenses. Empirical literature shows that even the most sophisticated <span class="hlt">risk</span> equalization <span class="hlt">models</span>-with advanced morbidity adjusters-substantially undercompensate insurers for selected groups of high-<span class="hlt">risk</span> individuals. In the presence of premium regulation, these undercompensations confront consumers and insurers with incentives for <span class="hlt">risk</span> selection. An important reason for the undercompensations is that not all information with predictive value regarding healthcare expenses is appropriate for use as a morbidity adjuster. To reduce incentives for selection regarding specific groups we propose overpaying morbidity adjusters that are already included in the <span class="hlt">risk</span> equalization <span class="hlt">model</span>. This paper illustrates the idea of overpaying by merging data on morbidity adjusters and healthcare expenses with health survey information, and derives three preconditions for meaningful application. Given these preconditions, we think overpaying may be particularly useful for pharmacy-based cost groups. PMID:26420555</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008Geolo..50...44T&link_type=ABSTRACT','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008Geolo..50...44T&link_type=ABSTRACT"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Risk</span> Management in environmental geotechnical <span class="hlt">modelling</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Tammemäe, Olavi; Torn, Hardi</p> <p>2008-01-01</p> <p>The objective of this article is to provide an overview of the basis of <span class="hlt">risk</span> analysis, assessment and management, accompanying problems and principles of <span class="hlt">risk</span> management when drafting an environmental geotechnical <span class="hlt">model</span>, enabling the analysis of an entire territory or developed region as a whole. The environmental impact will remain within the limits of the criteria specified with the standards and will be acceptable for human health and environment. An essential part of the solution of the problem is the engineering-geological <span class="hlt">model</span> based on <span class="hlt">risk</span> analysis and the assessment and forecast of mutual effects of the processes.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/397886','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/397886"><span id="translatedtitle">Minimum <span class="hlt">risk</span> route <span class="hlt">model</span> for hazardous materials</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Ashtakala, B.; Eno, L.A.</p> <p>1996-09-01</p> <p>The objective of this study is to determine the minimum <span class="hlt">risk</span> route for transporting a specific hazardous material (HM) between a point of origin and a point of destination (O-D pair) in the study area which minimizes <span class="hlt">risk</span> to population and environment. The southern part of Quebec is chosen as the study area and major cities are identified as points of origin and destination on the highway network. Three classes of HM, namely chlorine gas, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and sulfuric acid, are chosen. A minimum <span class="hlt">risk</span> route <span class="hlt">model</span> has been developed to determine minimum <span class="hlt">risk</span> routes between an O-D pair by using population or environment <span class="hlt">risk</span> units as link impedances. The <span class="hlt">risk</span> units for each link are computed by taking into consideration the probability of an accident and its consequences on that link. The results show that between the same O-D pair, the minimum <span class="hlt">risk</span> routes are different for various HM. The concept of <span class="hlt">risk</span> dissipation from origin to destination on the minimum <span class="hlt">risk</span> route has been developed and dissipation curves are included.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23586876','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23586876"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Absolute</span> biological needs.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>McLeod, Stephen</p> <p>2014-07-01</p> <p><span class="hlt">Absolute</span> needs (as against instrumental needs) are independent of the ends, goals and purposes of personal agents. Against the view that the only needs are instrumental needs, David Wiggins and Garrett Thomson have defended <span class="hlt">absolute</span> needs on the grounds that the verb 'need' has instrumental and <span class="hlt">absolute</span> senses. While remaining neutral about it, this article does not adopt that approach. Instead, it suggests that there are <span class="hlt">absolute</span> biological needs. The <span class="hlt">absolute</span> nature of these needs is defended by appeal to: their objectivity (as against mind-dependence); the universality of the phenomenon of needing across the plant and animal kingdoms; the impossibility that biological needs depend wholly upon the exercise of the abilities characteristic of personal agency; the contention that the possession of biological needs is prior to the possession of the abilities characteristic of personal agency. Finally, three philosophical usages of 'normative' are distinguished. On two of these, to describe a phenomenon or claim as 'normative' is to describe it as value-dependent. A description of a phenomenon or claim as 'normative' in the third sense does not entail such value-dependency, though it leaves open the possibility that value depends upon the phenomenon or upon the truth of the claim. It is argued that while survival needs (or claims about them) may well be normative in this third sense, they are normative in neither of the first two. Thus, the idea of <span class="hlt">absolute</span> need is not inherently normative in either of the first two senses. PMID:23586876</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AIPC.1382...49W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AIPC.1382...49W"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Absolute</span> neutrino mass measurements</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Wolf, Joachim</p> <p>2011-10-01</p> <p>The neutrino mass plays an important role in particle physics, astrophysics and cosmology. In recent years the detection of neutrino flavour oscillations proved that neutrinos carry mass. However, oscillation experiments are only sensitive to the mass-squared difference of the mass eigenvalues. In contrast to cosmological observations and neutrino-less double beta decay (0v2β) searches, single β-decay experiments provide a direct, <span class="hlt">model</span>-independent way to determine the <span class="hlt">absolute</span> neutrino mass by measuring the energy spectrum of decay electrons at the endpoint region with high accuracy. Currently the best kinematic upper limits on the neutrino mass of 2.2eV have been set by two experiments in Mainz and Troitsk, using tritium as beta emitter. The next generation tritium β-experiment KATRIN is currently under construction in Karlsruhe/Germany by an international collaboration. KATRIN intends to improve the sensitivity by one order of magnitude to 0.2eV. The investigation of a second isotope (137Rh) is being pursued by the international MARE collaboration using micro-calorimeters to measure the beta spectrum. The technology needed to reach 0.2eV sensitivity is still in the R&D phase. This paper reviews the present status of neutrino-mass measurements with cosmological data, 0v2β decay and single β-decay.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/21611867','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/21611867"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Absolute</span> neutrino mass measurements</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Wolf, Joachim</p> <p>2011-10-06</p> <p>The neutrino mass plays an important role in particle physics, astrophysics and cosmology. In recent years the detection of neutrino flavour oscillations proved that neutrinos carry mass. However, oscillation experiments are only sensitive to the mass-squared difference of the mass eigenvalues. In contrast to cosmological observations and neutrino-less double beta decay (0v2{beta}) searches, single {beta}-decay experiments provide a direct, <span class="hlt">model</span>-independent way to determine the <span class="hlt">absolute</span> neutrino mass by measuring the energy spectrum of decay electrons at the endpoint region with high accuracy.Currently the best kinematic upper limits on the neutrino mass of 2.2eV have been set by two experiments in Mainz and Troitsk, using tritium as beta emitter. The next generation tritium {beta}-experiment KATRIN is currently under construction in Karlsruhe/Germany by an international collaboration. KATRIN intends to improve the sensitivity by one order of magnitude to 0.2eV. The investigation of a second isotope ({sup 137}Rh) is being pursued by the international MARE collaboration using micro-calorimeters to measure the beta spectrum. The technology needed to reach 0.2eV sensitivity is still in the R and D phase. This paper reviews the present status of neutrino-mass measurements with cosmological data, 0v2{beta} decay and single {beta}-decay.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/22105914','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/22105914"><span id="translatedtitle">Development and validation of instantaneous <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">model</span> in nuclear power plant's <span class="hlt">risk</span> monitor</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Wang, J.; Li, Y.; Wang, F.; Wang, J.; Hu, L.</p> <p>2012-07-01</p> <p>The instantaneous <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">model</span> is the fundament of calculation and analysis in a <span class="hlt">risk</span> monitor. This study focused on the development and validation of an instantaneous <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">model</span>. Therefore the principles converting from the baseline <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">model</span> to the instantaneous <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">model</span> were studied and separated trains' failure modes <span class="hlt">modeling</span> method was developed. The development and validation process in an operating nuclear power plant's <span class="hlt">risk</span> monitor were also introduced. Correctness of instantaneous <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">model</span> and rationality of converting method were demonstrated by comparison with the result of baseline <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">model</span>. (authors)</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li class="active"><span>7</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_7 --> <div id="page_8" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li class="active"><span>8</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="141"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://eric.ed.gov/?q=origin+AND+algebra&pg=3&id=EJ458199','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://eric.ed.gov/?q=origin+AND+algebra&pg=3&id=EJ458199"><span id="translatedtitle">Inequalities, <span class="hlt">Absolute</span> Value, and Logical Connectives.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Parish, Charles R.</p> <p>1992-01-01</p> <p>Presents an approach to the concept of <span class="hlt">absolute</span> value that alleviates students' problems with the traditional definition and the use of logical connectives in solving related problems. Uses a <span class="hlt">model</span> that maps numbers from a horizontal number line to a vertical ray originating from the origin. Provides examples solving <span class="hlt">absolute</span> value equations and…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AAS...22734119W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AAS...22734119W"><span id="translatedtitle">Using A New <span class="hlt">Model</span> for Main Sequence Turnoff <span class="hlt">Absolute</span> Magnitudes to Measure Stellar Streams in the Milky Way Halo</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Weiss, Jake; Newberg, Heidi Jo; Arsenault, Matthew; Bechtel, Torrin; Desell, Travis; Newby, Matthew; Thompson, Jeffery M.</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>Statistical photometric parallax is a method for using the distribution of <span class="hlt">absolute</span> magnitudes of stellar tracers to statistically recover the underlying density distribution of these tracers. In previous work, statistical photometric parallax was used to trace the Sagittarius Dwarf tidal stream, the so-called bifurcated piece of the Sagittaritus stream, and the Virgo Overdensity through the Milky Way. We use an improved knowledge of this distribution in a new algorithm that accounts for the changes in the stellar population of color-selected stars near the photometric limit of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). Although we select bluer main sequence turnoff stars (MSTO) as tracers, large color errors near the survey limit cause many stars to be scattered out of our selection box and many fainter, redder stars to be scattered into our selection box. We show that we are able to recover parameters for analogues of these streams in simulated data using a maximum likelihood optimization on MilkyWay@home. We also present the preliminary results of fitting the density distribution of major Milky Way tidal streams in SDSS data. This research is supported by generous gifts from the Marvin Clan, Babette Josephs, Manit Limlamai, and the MilkyWay@home volunteers.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005AIPC..779..156M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005AIPC..779..156M"><span id="translatedtitle">Long range Ising <span class="hlt">model</span> for credit <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">modeling</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Molins, Jordi; Vives, Eduard</p> <p>2005-07-01</p> <p>Within the framework of maximum entropy principle we show that the finite-size long-range Ising <span class="hlt">model</span> is the adequate <span class="hlt">model</span> for the description of homogeneous credit portfolios and the computation of credit <span class="hlt">risk</span> when default correlations between the borrowers are included. The exact analysis of the <span class="hlt">model</span> suggest that when the correlation increases a first-order-like transition may occur inducing a sudden <span class="hlt">risk</span> increase.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22021317','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22021317"><span id="translatedtitle">Conceptual <span class="hlt">models</span> for cumulative <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Linder, Stephen H; Sexton, Ken</p> <p>2011-12-01</p> <p>In the absence of scientific consensus on an appropriate theoretical framework, cumulative <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment and related research have relied on speculative conceptual <span class="hlt">models</span>. We argue for the importance of theoretical backing for such <span class="hlt">models</span> and discuss 3 relevant theoretical frameworks, each supporting a distinctive "family" of <span class="hlt">models</span>. Social determinant <span class="hlt">models</span> postulate that unequal health outcomes are caused by structural inequalities; health disparity <span class="hlt">models</span> envision social and contextual factors acting through individual behaviors and biological mechanisms; and multiple stressor <span class="hlt">models</span> incorporate environmental agents, emphasizing the intermediary role of these and other stressors. The conclusion is that more careful reliance on established frameworks will lead directly to improvements in characterizing cumulative <span class="hlt">risk</span> burdens and accounting for disproportionate adverse health effects. PMID:22021317</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25226200','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25226200"><span id="translatedtitle">Suicide <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment and suicide <span class="hlt">risk</span> formulation: essential components of the therapeutic <span class="hlt">risk</span> management <span class="hlt">model</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Silverman, Morton M</p> <p>2014-09-01</p> <p>Suicide and other suicidal behaviors are often associated with psychiatric disorders and dysfunctions. Therefore, psychiatrists have significant opportunities to identify at-<span class="hlt">risk</span> individuals and offer treatment to reduce that <span class="hlt">risk</span>. Although a suicide <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment is a core competency requirement, many clinical psychiatrists lack the requisite training and skills to appropriately assess for suicide <span class="hlt">risk</span>. Moreover, the standard of care requires psychiatrists to foresee the possibility that a patient might engage in suicidal behavior, hence to conduct a suicide <span class="hlt">risk</span> formulation sufficient to guide triage and treatment planning. Based on data collected via a suicide <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment, a suicide <span class="hlt">risk</span> formulation is a process whereby the psychiatrist forms a judgment about a patient's foreseeable <span class="hlt">risk</span> of suicidal behavior in order to inform triage decisions, safety and treatment planning, and interventions to reduce <span class="hlt">risk</span>. This paper addresses the components of this process in the context of the <span class="hlt">model</span> for therapeutic <span class="hlt">risk</span> management of the suicidal patient developed at the Veterans Integrated Service Network (VISN) 19 Mental Illness Research, Education and Clinical Center by Wortzel et al. PMID:25226200</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009cip3.conf...51B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009cip3.conf...51B"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Modeling</span> and Managing <span class="hlt">Risk</span> in Billing Infrastructures</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Baiardi, Fabrizio; Telmon, Claudio; Sgandurra, Daniele</p> <p></p> <p>This paper discusses <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">modeling</span> and <span class="hlt">risk</span> management in information and communications technology (ICT) systems for which the attack impact distribution is heavy tailed (e.g., power law distribution) and the average <span class="hlt">risk</span> is unbounded. Systems with these properties include billing infrastructures used to charge customers for services they access. Attacks against billing infrastructures can be classified as peripheral attacks and backbone attacks. The goal of a peripheral attack is to tamper with user bills; a backbone attack seeks to seize control of the billing infrastructure. The probability distribution of the overall impact of an attack on a billing infrastructure also has a heavy-tailed curve. This implies that the probability of a massive impact cannot be ignored and that the average impact may be unbounded - thus, even the most expensive countermeasures would be cost effective. Consequently, the only strategy for managing <span class="hlt">risk</span> is to increase the resilience of the infrastructure by employing redundant components.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EGUGA..16.4496O','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EGUGA..16.4496O"><span id="translatedtitle">Possibilities of <span class="hlt">modelling</span> of local and global hydrological changes from high-resolution Global Hydrological <span class="hlt">Model</span> in the <span class="hlt">absolute</span> gravity observations - the case of Józefosław Observatory</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Olszak, Tomasz; Barlik, Marcin; Pachuta, Andrzej; Próchniewicz, Dominik</p> <p>2014-05-01</p> <p>Geodynamical use of epoch gravimetric relative and <span class="hlt">absolute</span> observations requires the elimination of one from the most significant effect related to local and global changes of hydrological conditions. It is understood that hydrological effect is associated with changes in groundwater levels and soil moisture around the gravimetric station. In Poland, the quasi - permanent observations of gravity changes by <span class="hlt">absolute</span> method carried out since 2005 on gravity station located in the Astronomical - Geodetic Observatory in Józefosław. In the poster will be shortly described measurement strategy of <span class="hlt">absolute</span> observations and different approaches to the elimination of the local and global effects associated with changes in hydrology. This paper will discuss the results of the analysis of tidal observations relevant to the development of <span class="hlt">absolute</span> observations - seasonal changes in barometric correction factor and differences in the locally designated tidal corrections <span class="hlt">model</span>. Analysis of the possibility of elimination the impact of global hydrological influence is based on the <span class="hlt">model</span> GLDAS a spatial resolution of 0.25 degree independently on a local scale and global. Józefosław Observatory is equipped with additional sensors linked to the monitoring of local hydrological conditions. It gives a possibility to verify the quality of <span class="hlt">modeling</span> of hydrological changes using global <span class="hlt">models</span> in local and global scale.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/1231575-absolute-path-command','SCIGOV-ESTSC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/1231575-absolute-path-command"><span id="translatedtitle">The <span class="hlt">absolute</span> path command</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href=""></a></p> <p></p> <p>2012-05-11</p> <p>The ap command traveres all symlinks in a given file, directory, or executable name to identify the final <span class="hlt">absolute</span> path. It can print just the final path, each intermediate link along with the symlink chan, and the permissions and ownership of each directory component in the final path. It has functionality similar to "which", except that it shows the final path instead of the first path. It is also similar to "pwd", but it canmore » provide the <span class="hlt">absolute</span> path to a relative directory from the current working directory.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/1231575','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/1231575"><span id="translatedtitle">The <span class="hlt">absolute</span> path command</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Moody, A.</p> <p>2012-05-11</p> <p>The ap command traveres all symlinks in a given file, directory, or executable name to identify the final <span class="hlt">absolute</span> path. It can print just the final path, each intermediate link along with the symlink chan, and the permissions and ownership of each directory component in the final path. It has functionality similar to "which", except that it shows the final path instead of the first path. It is also similar to "pwd", but it can provide the <span class="hlt">absolute</span> path to a relative directory from the current working directory.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009EGUGA..11.9977G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009EGUGA..11.9977G"><span id="translatedtitle">Challenges of <span class="hlt">Modeling</span> Flood <span class="hlt">Risk</span> at Large Scales</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Guin, J.; Simic, M.; Rowe, J.</p> <p>2009-04-01</p> <p> uncertainty can be attributed to various sources among which are imperfections in the hazard <span class="hlt">modeling</span>, inherent errors in the DTM, lack of accurate information on the properties that are being analyzed, imperfections in the vulnerability relationships, inability of the <span class="hlt">model</span> to account for local mitigation measures that are usually undertaken when a real event is unfolding and lack of details in the claims data that are used for <span class="hlt">model</span> calibration. Nevertheless, the <span class="hlt">model</span> once calibrated provides a very robust framework for analyzing relative and <span class="hlt">absolute</span> <span class="hlt">risk</span>. The paper concludes with key economic statistics of flood <span class="hlt">risk</span> for Great Britain as a whole including certain large loss-causing scenarios affecting the greater London region. The <span class="hlt">model</span> estimates a total financial loss of 5.6 billion GBP to all properties at a 1% annual aggregate exceedance probability level.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27207023','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27207023"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Risk</span> management <span class="hlt">model</span> of winter navigation operations.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Valdez Banda, Osiris A; Goerlandt, Floris; Kuzmin, Vladimir; Kujala, Pentti; Montewka, Jakub</p> <p>2016-07-15</p> <p>The wintertime maritime traffic operations in the Gulf of Finland are managed through the Finnish-Swedish Winter Navigation System. This establishes the requirements and limitations for the vessels navigating when ice covers this area. During winter navigation in the Gulf of Finland, the largest <span class="hlt">risk</span> stems from accidental ship collisions which may also trigger oil spills. In this article, a <span class="hlt">model</span> for managing the <span class="hlt">risk</span> of winter navigation operations is presented. The <span class="hlt">model</span> analyses the probability of oil spills derived from collisions involving oil tanker vessels and other vessel types. The <span class="hlt">model</span> structure is based on the steps provided in the Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and adapted into a Bayesian Network <span class="hlt">model</span>. The results indicate that ship independent navigation and convoys are the operations with higher probability of oil spills. Minor spills are most probable, while major oil spills found very unlikely but possible. PMID:27207023</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://eric.ed.gov/?q=Evaluation+AND+psychological+AND+adults+AND+adults+AND+older&pg=7&id=EJ490545','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://eric.ed.gov/?q=Evaluation+AND+psychological+AND+adults+AND+adults+AND+older&pg=7&id=EJ490545"><span id="translatedtitle">Clinical <span class="hlt">Model</span> for Suicide <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Assessment.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Kral, Michael J.; Sakinofsky, Isaac</p> <p>1994-01-01</p> <p>Presents suicide <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment in a two-tiered <span class="hlt">model</span> comprising background/contextual factors and subjectivity. The subjectivity portion is formulated around Shneidman's concepts of perturbation and lethality. Discusses decision of hospital admission versus ambulatory care. Suggests that theoretically informed approach should serve both…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27547370','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27547370"><span id="translatedtitle">A comparison of <span class="hlt">absolute</span> performance of different correlative and mechanistic species distribution <span class="hlt">models</span> in an independent area.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Shabani, Farzin; Kumar, Lalit; Ahmadi, Mohsen</p> <p>2016-08-01</p> <p>To investigate the comparative abilities of six different bioclimatic <span class="hlt">models</span> in an independent area, utilizing the distribution of eight different species available at a global scale and in Australia. Global scale and Australia. We tested a variety of bioclimatic <span class="hlt">models</span> for eight different plant species employing five discriminatory correlative species distribution <span class="hlt">models</span> (SDMs) including Generalized Linear <span class="hlt">Model</span> (GLM), MaxEnt, Random Forest (RF), Boosted Regression Tree (BRT), Bioclim, together with CLIMEX (CL) as a mechanistic niche <span class="hlt">model</span>. These <span class="hlt">models</span> were fitted using a training dataset of available global data, but with the exclusion of Australian locations. The capabilities of these techniques in projecting suitable climate, based on independent records for these species in Australia, were compared. Thus, Australia is not used to calibrate the <span class="hlt">models</span> and therefore it is as an independent area regarding geographic locations. To assess and compare performance, we utilized the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (AUC), true skill statistic (TSS), and fractional predicted areas for all SDMs. In addition, we assessed satisfactory agreements between the outputs of the six different bioclimatic <span class="hlt">models</span>, for all eight species in Australia. The <span class="hlt">modeling</span> method impacted on potential distribution predictions under current climate. However, the utilization of sensitivity and the fractional predicted areas showed that GLM, MaxEnt, Bioclim, and CL had the highest sensitivity for Australian climate conditions. Bioclim calculated the highest fractional predicted area of an independent area, while RF and BRT were poor. For many applications, it is difficult to decide which bioclimatic <span class="hlt">model</span> to use. This research shows that variable results are obtained using different SDMs in an independent area. This research also shows that the SDMs produce different results for different species; for example, Bioclim may not be good for one species but works better</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JVGR..310..172S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JVGR..310..172S"><span id="translatedtitle">The oscillation <span class="hlt">model</span> of hydrothermal dynamics beneath Aso volcano, southwest Japan after small eruption on May 2011: A new understanding <span class="hlt">model</span> using repeated <span class="hlt">absolute</span> and relative gravity measurement</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Sofyan, Yayan; Nishijima, Jun; Fujimitsu, Yasuhiro; Yoshikawa, Shin; Kagiyama, Tsuneomi; Ohkura, Takahiro</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>At the end of 2010, the seismic activity in Aso volcano intensely increased and water level in the Nakadake crater decreased until early in 2011, then was followed by a small eruption in May 2011. After the eruption and heavy rain, the volcanic activity subsided to calm period, crater bottom was refilled with water, and water level increased in the Nakadake crater. The next tremor reappeared in 2014 and tracked to eruption in November 2014. This eruptive pattern and water level variation in the crater repeatedly appeared on the surface, and it should be related to the hydrothermal dynamics beneath Aso volcano. We initiated the gravity measurements in relation to hydrothermal dynamics in the subsurface of Aso volcano using Scintrex CG-5 (549) and LaCoste Romberg type G-1016 relative gravimeter at 28 benchmarks in April 2011, one month before the eruption. The repeated gravity measurements continue to monitor Aso volcano with a series of the measurement after the eruption in every three months to a half year. We analyze the gravity variation from 2011 to 2014 between the time of the phreatic and strombolian eruption. The measurements covered the area more than 60 km2 in the west side of Aso caldera. A new gravity network was also installed in May 2010 at seven benchmarks using A10-017 <span class="hlt">absolute</span> gravimeter, which re-occupied in October 2010, June 2011 and two benchmarks in June 2014. As a result, the gravity changes distinguish hydrothermal dynamic in the subsurface, which has a direct correlation to water level fluctuation in the crater, after the first eruption and before the second discharge. The monitoring data notice large gravity changes between the surveys at benchmarks around Nakadake crater and Kusasenri area. The simple 3D inversion <span class="hlt">models</span> of the 4-D gravity data deduce the density contrast distribution beneath Aso volcano. The inversion and mass change result generate the oscillation typical as a new understanding <span class="hlt">model</span>. The variation of the mass shows a</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19950064077&hterms=IA&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D20%26Ntt%3DIA','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19950064077&hterms=IA&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D20%26Ntt%3DIA"><span id="translatedtitle">Delayed detonation <span class="hlt">models</span> for normal and subluminous type Ia sueprnovae: <span class="hlt">Absolute</span> brightness, light curves, and molecule formation</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Hoflich, P.; Khokhlov, A. M.; Wheeler, J. C.</p> <p>1995-01-01</p> <p>We compute optical and infrared light curves of the pulsating class of delayed detonation <span class="hlt">models</span> for Type Ia supernovae (SN Ia's) using an elaborate treatment of the Local Thermodynamic Equilbrium (LTE) radiation transport, equation of state and ionization balance, expansion opacity including the cooling by CO, Co(+), and SiO, and a Monte Carlo gamma-ray deposition scheme. The <span class="hlt">models</span> have an amount of Ni-56 in the range from approximately or equal to 0.1 solar mass up to 0.7 solar mass depending on the density at which the transition from a deflagration to a detonation occurs. <span class="hlt">Models</span> with a large nickel production give light curves comparable to those of typical Type Ia supernovae. Subluminous supernovae can be explained by <span class="hlt">models</span> with a low nickel production. Multiband light curves are presented in comparison with the normally bright event SN 1992bc and the subluminous events Sn 1991bg and SN 1992bo to establish the principle that the delayed detonation paradigm in Chandrasekhar mass <span class="hlt">models</span> may give a common explosion mechanism accounting for both normal and subluminous SN Ia's. Secondary IR-maxima are formed in the <span class="hlt">models</span> of normal SN Ia's as a photospheric effect if the photospheric radius continues to increase well after maximum light. Secondary maxima appear later and stronger in <span class="hlt">models</span> with moderate expansion velocities and with radioactive material closer to the surface. <span class="hlt">Model</span> light curves for subluminous SN Ia's tend to show only one 'late' IR-maximum. In some delayed detonation <span class="hlt">models</span> shell-like envelopes form, which consist of unburned carbon and oxygen. The formation of molecules in these envelopes is addressed. If the <span class="hlt">model</span> retains a C/O-envelope and is subluminous, strong vibration bands of CO may appear, typically several weeks past maximum light. CO should be very weak or absent in normal Sn Ia's.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20040088719&hterms=Connective+tissue&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D80%26Ntt%3D%2528Connective%2Btissue%2529','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20040088719&hterms=Connective+tissue&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D80%26Ntt%3D%2528Connective%2Btissue%2529"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Risk</span> analysis: divergent <span class="hlt">models</span> and convergent interpretations</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Carnes, B. A.; Gavrilova, N.</p> <p>2001-01-01</p> <p>Material presented at a NASA-sponsored workshop on <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">models</span> for exposure conditions relevant to prolonged space flight are described in this paper. Analyses used mortality data from experiments conducted at Argonne National Laboratory on the long-term effects of external whole-body irradiation on B6CF1 mice by 60Co gamma rays and fission neutrons delivered as a single exposure or protracted over either 24 or 60 once-weekly exposures. The maximum dose considered was restricted to 1 Gy for neutrons and 10 Gy for gamma rays. Proportional hazard <span class="hlt">models</span> were used to investigate the shape of the dose response at these lower doses for deaths caused by solid-tissue tumors and tumors of either connective or epithelial tissue origin. For protracted exposures, a significant mortality effect was detected at a neutron dose of 14 cGy and a gamma-ray dose of 3 Gy. For single exposures, radiation-induced mortality for neutrons also occurred within the range of 10-20 cGy, but dropped to 86 cGy for gamma rays. Plots of <span class="hlt">risk</span> relative to control estimated for each observed dose gave a visual impression of nonlinearity for both neutrons and gamma rays. At least for solid-tissue tumors, male and female mortality was nearly identical for gamma-ray exposures, but mortality <span class="hlt">risks</span> for females were higher than for males for neutron exposures. As expected, protracting the gamma-ray dose reduced mortality <span class="hlt">risks</span>. Although curvature consistent with that observed visually could be detected by a <span class="hlt">model</span> parameterized to detect curvature, a relative <span class="hlt">risk</span> term containing only a simple term for total dose was usually sufficient to describe the dose response. Although detectable mortality for the three pathology end points considered typically occurred at the same level of dose, the highest <span class="hlt">risks</span> were almost always associated with deaths caused by tumors of epithelial tissue origin.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19732396','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19732396"><span id="translatedtitle">Landslide <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">models</span> for decision making.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Bonachea, Jaime; Remondo, Juan; de Terán, José Ramón Díaz; González-Díez, Alberto; Cendrero, Antonio</p> <p>2009-11-01</p> <p>This contribution presents a quantitative procedure for landslide <span class="hlt">risk</span> analysis and zoning considering hazard, exposure (or value of elements at <span class="hlt">risk</span>), and vulnerability. The method provides the means to obtain landslide <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">models</span> (expressing expected damage due to landslides on material elements and economic activities in monetary terms, according to different scenarios and periods) useful to identify areas where mitigation efforts will be most cost effective. It allows identifying priority areas for the implementation of actions to reduce vulnerability (elements) or hazard (processes). The procedure proposed can also be used as a preventive tool, through its application to strategic environmental impact analysis (SEIA) of land-use plans. The underlying hypothesis is that reliable predictions about hazard and <span class="hlt">risk</span> can be made using <span class="hlt">models</span> based on a detailed analysis of past landslide occurrences in connection with conditioning factors and data on past damage. The results show that the approach proposed and the hypothesis formulated are essentially correct, providing estimates of the order of magnitude of expected losses for a given time period. Uncertainties, strengths, and shortcomings of the procedure and results obtained are discussed and potential lines of research to improve the <span class="hlt">models</span> are indicated. Finally, comments and suggestions are provided to generalize this type of analysis. PMID:19732396</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2015AGUFMNH41B1816L&link_type=ABSTRACT','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2015AGUFMNH41B1816L&link_type=ABSTRACT"><span id="translatedtitle">Landslide <span class="hlt">risk</span> mapping and <span class="hlt">modeling</span> in China</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Li, W.; Hong, Y.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>Under circumstances of global climate change, tectonic stress and human effect, landslides are among the most frequent and severely widespread natural hazards on Earth, as demonstrated in the World Atlas of Natural Hazards (McGuire et al., 2004). Every year, landslide activities cause serious economic loss as well as casualties (Róbert et al., 2005). How landslides can be monitored and predicted is an urgent research topic of the international landslide research community. Particularly, there is a lack of high quality and updated landslide <span class="hlt">risk</span> maps and guidelines that can be employed to better mitigate and prevent landslide disasters in many emerging regions, including China (Hong, 2007). Since the 1950s, landslide events have been recorded in the statistical yearbooks, newspapers, and monographs in China. As disasters have been increasingly concerned by the government and the public, information about landslide events is becoming available from online news reports (Liu et al., 2012).This study presents multi-scale landslide <span class="hlt">risk</span> mapping and <span class="hlt">modeling</span> in China. At the national scale, based on historical data and practical experiences, we carry out landslide susceptibility and <span class="hlt">risk</span> mapping by adopting a statistical approach and pattern recognition methods to construct empirical <span class="hlt">models</span>. Over the identified landslide hot-spot areas, we further evaluate the slope-stability for each individual site (Sidle and Hirotaka, 2006), with the ultimate goal to set up a space-time multi-scale coupling system of Landslide <span class="hlt">risk</span> mapping and <span class="hlt">modeling</span> for landslide hazard monitoring and early warning.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16257374','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16257374"><span id="translatedtitle">Quantitative <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">modelling</span> for new pharmaceutical compounds.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Tang, Zhengru; Taylor, Mark J; Lisboa, Paulo; Dyas, Mark</p> <p>2005-11-15</p> <p>The process of discovering and developing new drugs is long, costly and <span class="hlt">risk</span>-laden. Faced with a wealth of newly discovered compounds, industrial scientists need to target resources carefully to discern the key attributes of a drug candidate and to make informed decisions. Here, we describe a quantitative approach to <span class="hlt">modelling</span> the <span class="hlt">risk</span> associated with drug development as a tool for scenario analysis concerning the probability of success of a compound as a potential pharmaceutical agent. We bring together the three strands of manufacture, clinical effectiveness and financial returns. This approach involves the application of a Bayesian Network. A simulation <span class="hlt">model</span> is demonstrated with an implementation in MS Excel using the <span class="hlt">modelling</span> engine Crystal Ball. PMID:16257374</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/1009256','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/1009256"><span id="translatedtitle">Role of <span class="hlt">Modeling</span> When Designing for <span class="hlt">Absolute</span> Energy Use Intensity Requirements in a Design-Build Framework: Preprint</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Hirsch, A.; Pless, S.; Guglielmetti, R.; Torcellini, P. A.; Okada, D.; Antia, P.</p> <p>2011-03-01</p> <p>The Research Support Facility was designed to use half the energy of an equivalent minimally code-compliant building, and to produce as much renewable energy as it consumes on an annual basis. These energy goals and their substantiation through simulation were explicitly included in the project's fixed firm price design-build contract. The energy <span class="hlt">model</span> had to be continuously updated during the design process and to match the final building as-built to the greatest degree possible. Computer <span class="hlt">modeling</span> played a key role throughout the design process and in verifying that the contractual energy goals would be met within the specified budget. The main tool was a whole building energy simulation program. Other <span class="hlt">models</span> were used to provide more detail or to complement the whole building simulation tool. Results from these specialized <span class="hlt">models</span> were fed back into the main whole building simulation tool to provide the most accurate possible inputs for annual simulations. This paper will detail the <span class="hlt">models</span> used in the design process and how they informed important program and design decisions on the path from preliminary design to the completed building.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li class="active"><span>8</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_8 --> <div id="page_9" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li class="active"><span>9</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="161"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3544194','PMC'); return false;" href="http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3544194"><span id="translatedtitle">Novel methods to evaluate fracture <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">models</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Donaldson, M.G.; Cawthon, P. M.; Schousboe, J.T.; Ensrud, K.E.; Lui, L.Y.; Cauley, J.A.; Hillier, T.A.; Taylor, B.C.; Hochberg, M.C.; Bauer, D.C.; Cummings, S.R.</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>Fracture prediction <span class="hlt">models</span> help identify individuals at high <span class="hlt">risk</span> who may benefit from treatment. Area Under the Curve (AUC) is used to compare prediction <span class="hlt">models</span>. However, the AUC has limitations and may miss important differences between <span class="hlt">models</span>. Novel reclassification methods quantify how accurately <span class="hlt">models</span> classify patients who benefit from treatment and the proportion of patients above/below treatment thresholds. We applied two reclassification methods, using the NOF treatment thresholds, to compare two <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">models</span>: femoral neck BMD and age (“simple model”) and FRAX (”FRAX model”). The Pepe method classifies based on case/non-case status and examines the proportion of each above and below thresholds. The Cook method examines fracture rates above and below thresholds. We applied these to the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures. There were 6036 (1037 fractures) and 6232 (389 fractures) participants with complete data for major osteoporotic and hip fracture respectively. Both <span class="hlt">models</span> for major osteoporotic fracture (0.68 vs. 0.69) and hip fracture (0.75 vs. 0.76) had similar AUCs. In contrast, using reclassification methods, each <span class="hlt">model</span> classified a substantial number of women differently. Using the Pepe method, the FRAX <span class="hlt">model</span> (vs. simple <span class="hlt">model</span>), missed treating 70 (7%) cases of major osteoporotic fracture but avoided treating 285 (6%) non-cases. For hip fracture, the FRAX <span class="hlt">model</span> missed treating 31 (8%) cases but avoided treating 1026 (18%) non-cases. The Cook method (both <span class="hlt">models</span>, both fracture outcomes) had similar fracture rates above/below the treatment thresholds. Compared with the AUC, new methods provide more detailed information about how <span class="hlt">models</span> classify patients. PMID:21351143</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20070017940','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20070017940"><span id="translatedtitle">Simulation Assisted <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Assessment: Blast Overpressure <span class="hlt">Modeling</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Lawrence, Scott L.; Gee, Ken; Mathias, Donovan; Olsen, Michael</p> <p>2006-01-01</p> <p>A probabilistic <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment (PRA) approach has been developed and applied to the <span class="hlt">risk</span> analysis of capsule abort during ascent. The PRA is used to assist in the identification of <span class="hlt">modeling</span> and simulation applications that can significantly impact the understanding of crew <span class="hlt">risk</span> during this potentially dangerous maneuver. The PRA approach is also being used to identify the appropriate level of fidelity for the <span class="hlt">modeling</span> of those critical failure modes. The Apollo launch escape system (LES) was chosen as a test problem for application of this approach. Failure modes that have been <span class="hlt">modeled</span> and/or simulated to date include explosive overpressure-based failure, explosive fragment-based failure, land landing failures (range limits exceeded either near launch or Mode III trajectories ending on the African continent), capsule-booster re-contact during separation, and failure due to plume-induced instability. These failure modes have been investigated using analysis tools in a variety of technical disciplines at various levels of fidelity. The current paper focuses on the development and application of a blast overpressure <span class="hlt">model</span> for the prediction of structural failure due to overpressure, including the application of high-fidelity analysis to predict near-field and headwinds effects.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AIPC.1637.1416H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AIPC.1637.1416H"><span id="translatedtitle">Eddy current <span class="hlt">modeling</span> by finite element method for evaluation of mechanical properties of the structure cracked in <span class="hlt">absolute</span> probe</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Harzallah, Salaheddine; Chabaat, Mohamed; Belgacem, Fethi Bin Muhammad</p> <p>2014-12-01</p> <p>In this paper, a nondestructive evaluation by sensor Eddy current is used as a tool to control cracks and micro-cracks in materials. A simulation by a numerical approach based on the finite element method is employed to detect cracks in materials and eventually to study their propagation using a crucial parameter such as a Stress Intensity Factor (SIF). This method has emerged as one of the most efficient techniques for prospecting cracks in materials, evaluating SIFs and analyzing crack's growth in the context of linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM). This technique uses extrapolation of displacements from results compared with those obtained by the integral interaction. On the other hand, crack's growth is analyzed as a <span class="hlt">model</span> by combining the maximum circumferential stress criteria with the critical plane for predicting the direction of crack growth. Moreover, a constant crack growth increment is determined using the modified Paris's <span class="hlt">model</span>. Furthermore, stress intensity factors needed for these <span class="hlt">models</span> are calculated using the domain form of the J-integral interactions.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010EGUGA..1212983S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010EGUGA..1212983S"><span id="translatedtitle">Probabilistic Seismic <span class="hlt">Risk</span> <span class="hlt">Model</span> for Western Balkans</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Stejskal, Vladimir; Lorenzo, Francisco; Pousse, Guillaume; Radovanovic, Slavica; Pekevski, Lazo; Dojcinovski, Dragi; Lokin, Petar; Petronijevic, Mira; Sipka, Vesna</p> <p>2010-05-01</p> <p>A probabilistic seismic <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">model</span> for insurance and reinsurance purposes is presented for an area of Western Balkans, covering former Yugoslavia and Albania. This territory experienced many severe earthquakes during past centuries producing significant damage to many population centres in the region. The highest hazard is related to external Dinarides, namely to the collision zone of the Adriatic plate. The <span class="hlt">model</span> is based on a unified catalogue for the region and a seismic source <span class="hlt">model</span> consisting of more than 30 zones covering all the three main structural units - Southern Alps, Dinarides and the south-western margin of the Pannonian Basin. A probabilistic methodology using Monte Carlo simulation was applied to generate the hazard component of the <span class="hlt">model</span>. Unique set of damage functions based on both loss experience and engineering assessments is used to convert the <span class="hlt">modelled</span> ground motion severity into the monetary loss.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20110007069','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20110007069"><span id="translatedtitle">Human Plague <span class="hlt">Risk</span>: Spatial-Temporal <span class="hlt">Models</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Pinzon, Jorge E.</p> <p>2010-01-01</p> <p>This chpater reviews the use of spatial-temporal <span class="hlt">models</span> in identifying potential <span class="hlt">risks</span> of plague outbreaks into the human population. Using earth observations by satellites remote sensing there has been a systematic analysis and mapping of the close coupling between the vectors of the disease and climate variability. The overall result is that incidence of plague is correlated to positive El Nino/Southem Oscillation (ENSO).</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AAS...22513816M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AAS...22513816M"><span id="translatedtitle">Testing Stellar Evolution <span class="hlt">Models</span>: <span class="hlt">Absolute</span> Dimensions of the Low-Mass Eclipsing Binary Star V651 Cassiopeiae</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Matthews, Allison; Torres, Guillermo</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>We report accurate values of several key quantities for the low-mass, 0.9968096 day period, double-lined eclipsing binary V651 Cas. We determine accurate values for the masses, radii and temperatures of the primary and secondary as follows: M = 0.8553(81) solar masses, R = 0.957(17) solar radii, and effective temperature = 5733(100) K for the primary component, and M = 0.7564(48) solar masses, R = 0.771(15) solar radii, and effective temperature = 5113(105) for the secondary component, with formal uncertainties shown in parentheses. A comparison with the stellar evolution <span class="hlt">models</span> from the Dartmouth Stellar Evolution Program suggests an age of 11(1) Gyr for a best-fit metallicity of [Fe/H] = -0.2. While the isochrone mentioned correctly reproduces the measured radii and temperatures of the stars within the current uncertainties, we note that the secondary radius appears marginally larger and the temperature marginally cooler than <span class="hlt">models</span> would predict. This is consistent with similar discrepancies found for other low-mass stars, generally accredited to surface activity. With further improvement in the measurement errors, and a spectroscopic measure of the metallicity, V651 Cas should be a valuable system for understanding the effects of magnetic activity on the global structure of low-mass stars and for providing guidance to improve stellar evolution <span class="hlt">models</span>.This work was supported in part by the NSF REU and DoD ASSURE programs under NSF grant no. 1262851 and by the Smithsonian Institution.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015NewA...34..234O','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015NewA...34..234O"><span id="translatedtitle">Galactic <span class="hlt">model</span> parameters of cataclysmic variables: Results from a new <span class="hlt">absolute</span> magnitude calibration with 2MASS and WISE</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Özdönmez, A.; Ak, T.; Bilir, S.</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>In order to determine the spatial distribution, Galactic <span class="hlt">model</span> parameters and luminosity function of cataclysmic variables (CVs), a J-band magnitude limited sample of 263 CVs has been established using a newly constructed period-luminosity-colours (PLCs) relation which includes J,Ks and W1-band magnitudes in 2MASS and WISE photometries, and the orbital periods of the systems. This CV sample is assumed to be homogeneous regarding to distances as the new PLCs relation is calibrated with new or re-measured trigonometric parallaxes. Our analysis shows that the scaleheight of CVs is increasing towards shorter periods, although selection effects for the periods shorter than 2.25 h dramatically decrease the scaleheight: the scaleheight of the systems increases from 192 pc to 326 pc as the orbital period decreases from 12 to 2.25 h. The z-distribution of all CVs in the sample is well fitted by an exponential function with a scaleheight of 213-10+11 pc. However, we suggest that the scaleheight of CVs in the Solar vicinity should be ∼300 pc and that the scaleheights derived using the sech2 function should be also considered in the population synthesis <span class="hlt">models</span>. The space density of CVs in the Solar vicinity is found 5.58(1.35)×10-6 pc-3 which is in the range of previously derived space densities and not in agreement with the predictions of the population <span class="hlt">models</span>. The analysis based on the comparisons of the luminosity function of white dwarfs with the luminosity function of CVs in this study show that the best fits are obtained by dividing the luminosity functions of white dwarfs by a factor of 350-450.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/991913','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/991913"><span id="translatedtitle">NGNP <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Management Database: A <span class="hlt">Model</span> for Managing <span class="hlt">Risk</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>John Collins</p> <p>2009-09-01</p> <p>To facilitate the implementation of the <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Management Plan, the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Project has developed and employed an analytical software tool called the NGNP <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Management System (RMS). A relational database developed in Microsoft® Access, the RMS provides conventional database utility including data maintenance, archiving, configuration control, and query ability. Additionally, the tool’s design provides a number of unique capabilities specifically designed to facilitate the development and execution of activities outlined in the <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Management Plan. Specifically, the RMS provides the capability to establish the <span class="hlt">risk</span> baseline, document and analyze the <span class="hlt">risk</span> reduction plan, track the current <span class="hlt">risk</span> reduction status, organize <span class="hlt">risks</span> by reference configuration system, subsystem, and component (SSC) and Area, and increase the level of NGNP decision making.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26133501','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26133501"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Modeling</span> Opponents in Adversarial <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Analysis.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Rios Insua, David; Banks, David; Rios, Jesus</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>Adversarial <span class="hlt">risk</span> analysis has been introduced as a framework to deal with <span class="hlt">risks</span> derived from intentional actions of adversaries. The analysis supports one of the decisionmakers, who must forecast the actions of the other agents. Typically, this forecast must take account of random consequences resulting from the set of selected actions. The solution requires one to <span class="hlt">model</span> the behavior of the opponents, which entails strategic thinking. The supported agent may face different kinds of opponents, who may use different rationality paradigms, for example, the opponent may behave randomly, or seek a Nash equilibrium, or perform level-k thinking, or use mirroring, or employ prospect theory, among many other possibilities. We describe the appropriate analysis for these situations, and also show how to <span class="hlt">model</span> the uncertainty about the rationality paradigm used by the opponent through a Bayesian <span class="hlt">model</span> averaging approach, enabling a fully decision-theoretic solution. We also show how as we observe an opponent's decision behavior, this approach allows learning about the validity of each of the rationality <span class="hlt">models</span> used to predict his decision by computing the <span class="hlt">models</span>' (posterior) probabilities, which can be understood as a measure of their validity. We focus on simultaneous decision making by two agents. PMID:26133501</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20100027503','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20100027503"><span id="translatedtitle">Functional <span class="hlt">Risk</span> <span class="hlt">Modeling</span> for Lunar Surface Systems</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Thomson, Fraser; Mathias, Donovan; Go, Susie; Nejad, Hamed</p> <p>2010-01-01</p> <p>We introduce an approach to <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">modeling</span> that we call functional <span class="hlt">modeling</span> , which we have developed to estimate the capabilities of a lunar base. The functional <span class="hlt">model</span> tracks the availability of functions provided by systems, in addition to the operational state of those systems constituent strings. By tracking functions, we are able to identify cases where identical functions are provided by elements (rovers, habitats, etc.) that are connected together on the lunar surface. We credit functional diversity in those cases, and in doing so compute more realistic estimates of operational mode availabilities. The functional <span class="hlt">modeling</span> approach yields more realistic estimates of the availability of the various operational modes provided to astronauts by the ensemble of surface elements included in a lunar base architecture. By tracking functional availability the effects of diverse backup, which often exists when two or more independent elements are connected together, is properly accounted for.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/22340019','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/22340019"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Absolute</span> properties of the eclipsing binary system AQ Serpentis: A stringent test of convective core overshooting in stellar evolution <span class="hlt">models</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Torres, Guillermo; Vaz, Luiz Paulo R.; Sandberg Lacy, Claud H.; Claret, Antonio E-mail: lpv@fisica.ufmg.br E-mail: claret@iaa.es</p> <p>2014-02-01</p> <p>We report differential photometric observations and radial-velocity measurements of the detached, 1.69 day period, double-lined eclipsing binary AQ Ser. Accurate masses and radii for the components are determined to better than 1.8% and 1.1%, respectively, and are M {sub 1} = 1.417 ± 0.021 M {sub ☉}, M {sub 2} = 1.346 ± 0.024 M {sub ☉}, R {sub 1} = 2.451 ± 0.027 R {sub ☉}, and R {sub 2} = 2.281 ± 0.014 R {sub ☉}. The temperatures are 6340 ± 100 K (spectral type F6) and 6430 ± 100 K (F5), respectively. Both stars are considerably evolved, such that predictions from stellar evolution theory are particularly sensitive to the degree of extra mixing above the convective core (overshoot). The component masses are different enough to exclude a location in the H-R diagram past the point of central hydrogen exhaustion, which implies the need for extra mixing. Moreover, we find that current main-sequence <span class="hlt">models</span> are unable to match the observed properties at a single age even when allowing the unknown metallicity, mixing length parameter, and convective overshooting parameter to vary freely and independently for the two components. The age of the more massive star appears systematically younger. AQ Ser and other similarly evolved eclipsing binaries showing the same discrepancy highlight an outstanding and largely overlooked problem with the description of overshooting in current stellar theory.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/22034529','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/22034529"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">MODELING</span> MULTI-WAVELENGTH STELLAR ASTROMETRY. III. DETERMINATION OF THE <span class="hlt">ABSOLUTE</span> MASSES OF EXOPLANETS AND THEIR HOST STARS</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Coughlin, J. L.; Lopez-Morales, Mercedes</p> <p>2012-05-10</p> <p>Astrometric measurements of stellar systems are becoming significantly more precise and common, with many ground- and space-based instruments and missions approaching 1 {mu}as precision. We examine the multi-wavelength astrometric orbits of exoplanetary systems via both analytical formulae and numerical <span class="hlt">modeling</span>. Exoplanets have a combination of reflected and thermally emitted light that causes the photocenter of the system to shift increasingly farther away from the host star with increasing wavelength. We find that, if observed at long enough wavelengths, the planet can dominate the astrometric motion of the system, and thus it is possible to directly measure the orbits of both the planet and star, and thus directly determine the physical masses of the star and planet, using multi-wavelength astrometry. In general, this technique works best for, though is certainly not limited to, systems that have large, high-mass stars and large, low-mass planets, which is a unique parameter space not covered by other exoplanet characterization techniques. Exoplanets that happen to transit their host star present unique cases where the physical radii of the planet and star can be directly determined via astrometry alone. Planetary albedos and day-night contrast ratios may also be probed via this technique due to the unique signature they impart on the observed astrometric orbits. We develop a tool to examine the prospects for near-term detection of this effect, and give examples of some exoplanets that appear to be good targets for detection in the K to N infrared observing bands, if the required precision can be achieved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2006PhDT.......113C&link_type=ABSTRACT','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2006PhDT.......113C&link_type=ABSTRACT"><span id="translatedtitle">Electricity market pricing, <span class="hlt">risk</span> hedging and <span class="hlt">modeling</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Cheng, Xu</p> <p></p> <p>In this dissertation, we investigate the pricing, price <span class="hlt">risk</span> hedging/arbitrage, and simplified system <span class="hlt">modeling</span> for a centralized LMP-based electricity market. In an LMP-based market <span class="hlt">model</span>, the full AC power flow <span class="hlt">model</span> and the DC power flow <span class="hlt">model</span> are most widely used to represent the transmission system. We investigate the differences of dispatching results, congestion pattern, and LMPs for the two power flow <span class="hlt">models</span>. An appropriate LMP decomposition scheme to quantify the marginal costs of the congestion and real power losses is critical for the implementation of financial <span class="hlt">risk</span> hedging markets. However, the traditional LMP decomposition heavily depends on the slack bus selection. In this dissertation we propose a slack-independent scheme to break LMP down into energy, congestion, and marginal loss components by analyzing the actual marginal cost of each bus at the optimal solution point. The physical and economic meanings of the marginal effect at each bus provide accurate price information for both congestion and losses, and thus the slack-dependency of the traditional scheme is eliminated. With electricity priced at the margin instead of the average value, the market operator typically collects more revenue from power sellers than that paid to power buyers. According to the LMP decomposition results, the revenue surplus is then divided into two parts: congestion charge surplus and marginal loss revenue surplus. We apply the LMP decomposition results to the financial tools, such as financial transmission right (FTR) and loss hedging right (LHR), which have been introduced to hedge against price <span class="hlt">risks</span> associated to congestion and losses, to construct a full price <span class="hlt">risk</span> hedging portfolio. The two-settlement market structure and the introduction of financial tools inevitably create market manipulation opportunities. We investigate several possible market manipulation behaviors by virtual bidding and propose a market monitor approach to identify and quantify such</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24776225','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24776225"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Modeling</span> situation awareness and crash <span class="hlt">risk</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Fisher, Donald L; Strayer, David L</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>In this article we develop a <span class="hlt">model</span> of the relationship between crash <span class="hlt">risk</span> and a driver's situation awareness. We consider a driver's situation awareness to reflect the dynamic mental <span class="hlt">model</span> of the driving environment and to be dependent upon several psychological processes including Scanning the driving environment, Predicting and anticipating hazards, Identifying potential hazards in the driving scene as they occur, Deciding on an action, and Executing an appropriate Response (SPIDER). Together, SPIDER is important for establishing and maintaining good situation awareness of the driving environment and good situation awareness is important for coordinating and scheduling the SPIDER-relevant processes necessary for safe driving. An Order-of-Processing (OP) <span class="hlt">model</span> makes explicit the SPIDER-relevant processes and how they predict the likelihood of a crash when the driver is or is not distracted by a secondary task. For example, the OP <span class="hlt">model</span> shows how a small decrease in the likelihood of any particular SPIDER activity being completed successfully (because of a concurrent secondary task performance) would lead to a large increase in the relative <span class="hlt">risk</span> of a crash. PMID:24776225</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4001668','PMC'); return false;" href="http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4001668"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Modeling</span> Situation Awareness and Crash <span class="hlt">Risk</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Fisher, Donald L.; Strayer, David. L.</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>In this article we develop a <span class="hlt">model</span> of the relationship between crash <span class="hlt">risk</span> and a driver’s situation awareness. We consider a driver’s situation awareness to reflect the dynamic mental <span class="hlt">model</span> of the driving environment and to be dependent upon several psychological processes including Scanning the driving environment, Predicting and anticipating hazards, Identifying potential hazards in the driving scene as they occur, Deciding on an action, and Executing an appropriate Response (SPIDER). Together, SPIDER is important for establishing and maintaining good situation awareness of the driving environment and good situation awareness is important for coordinating and scheduling the SPIDER-relevant processes necessary for safe driving. An Order-of-Processing (OP) <span class="hlt">model</span> makes explicit the SPIDER-relevant processes and how they predict the likelihood of a crash when the driver is or is not distracted by a secondary task. For example, the OP <span class="hlt">model</span> shows how a small decrease in the likelihood of any particular SPIDER activity being completed successfully (because of a concurrent secondary task performance) would lead to a large increase in the relative <span class="hlt">risk</span> of a crash. PMID:24776225</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.H41C0829M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.H41C0829M"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Modeling</span> Flood <span class="hlt">Risk</span> for South Korea</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Mei, Y.; Li, S.</p> <p>2014-12-01</p> <p>Catastrophic flood events have caused significant losses for South Korea each year. It is very important to generate high resolution flood return period map for the government and insurance company to evaluate the flood <span class="hlt">risk</span>. This research was initiated to achieve this goal. A 2000 year spatial distributed stochastical rainfall was generated by analyzing the historical rainfall of South Korea using principle component analysis. A rainfall-runoff <span class="hlt">model</span> and a routing <span class="hlt">model</span> were calibrated by driving the <span class="hlt">model</span> with historical forcing and calibrated against gauge observations. The calibrated <span class="hlt">model</span> was used to couple with the stochastical forcing to generate 2000 year discharge and runoff. The flood maps with different return periods were generated by numerically solving the shallow water equations using finite volume method on GPUs. The results of this research showed a reasonable flood map in South Korea, compared with the observed data. Further, this research could be used as an important reference for the government and insurance companies for <span class="hlt">risk</span> management purpose.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010OcSci...6..361P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010OcSci...6..361P"><span id="translatedtitle">A <span class="hlt">model</span> for predicting changes in the electrical conductivity, practical salinity, and <span class="hlt">absolute</span> salinity of seawater due to variations in relative chemical composition</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Pawlowicz, R.</p> <p>2010-03-01</p> <p>Salinity determination in seawater has been carried out for almost 30 years using the Practical Salinity Scale 1978. However, the numerical value of so-called practical salinity, computed from electrical conductivity, differs slightly from the true or <span class="hlt">absolute</span> salinity, defined as the mass of dissolved solids per unit mass of seawater. The difference arises because more recent knowledge about the composition of seawater is not reflected in the definition of practical salinity, which was chosen to maintain historical continuity with previous measures, and because of spatial and temporal variations in the relative composition of seawater. Accounting for these spatial variations in density calculations requires the calculation of a correction factor δSA, which is known to range from 0 to 0.03 g kg-1 in the world oceans. Here a mathematical <span class="hlt">model</span> relating compositional perturbations to δSA is developed, by combining a chemical <span class="hlt">model</span> for the composition of seawater with a mathematical <span class="hlt">model</span> for predicting the conductivity of multi-component aqueous solutions. <span class="hlt">Model</span> calculations for this estimate of δSA, denoted δSRsoln, generally agree with estimates of δSA based on fits to direct density measurements, denoted δSRdens, and show that biogeochemical perturbations affect conductivity only weakly. However, small systematic differences between <span class="hlt">model</span> and density-based estimates remain. These may arise for several reasons, including uncertainty about the biogeochemical processes involved in the increase in Total Alkalinity in the North Pacific, uncertainty in the carbon content of IAPSO standard seawater, and uncertainty about the haline contraction coefficient for the constituents involved in biogeochemical processes. This <span class="hlt">model</span> may then be important in constraining these processes, as well as in future efforts to improve parameterizations for δSA.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009OcScD...6.2861P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009OcScD...6.2861P"><span id="translatedtitle">A <span class="hlt">model</span> for predicting changes in the electrical conductivity, practical salinity, and <span class="hlt">absolute</span> salinity of seawater due to variations in relative chemical composition</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Pawlowicz, R.</p> <p>2009-11-01</p> <p>Salinity determination in seawater has been carried out for almost 30 years using the 1978 Practical Salinity Standard. However, the numerical value of so-called practical salinity, computed from electrical conductivity, differs slightly from the true or <span class="hlt">absolute</span> salinity, defined as the mass of dissolved solids per unit mass of seawater. The difference arises because more recent knowledge about the composition of seawater is not reflected in the definition of practical salinity, which was chosen to maintain historical continuity with previous measures, and because of spatial and temporal variations in the relative composition of seawater. Accounting for these variations in density calculations requires the calculation of a correction factor δSA, which is known to range from 0 to 0.03 g kg-1 in the world oceans. Here a mathematical <span class="hlt">model</span> relating compositional perturbations to δSA is developed, by combining a chemical <span class="hlt">model</span> for the composition of seawater with a mathematical <span class="hlt">model</span> for predicting the conductivity of multi-component aqueous solutions. <span class="hlt">Model</span> calculations generally agree with estimates of δSA based on fits to direct density measurements, and show that biogeochemical perturbations affect conductivity only weakly. However, small systematic differences between <span class="hlt">model</span> and density-based estimates remain. These may arise for several reasons, including uncertainty about the biogeochemical processes involved in the increase in Total Alkalinity in the North Pacific, uncertainty in the carbon content of IAPSO standard seawater, and uncertainty about the haline contraction coefficient for the constituents involved in biogeochemical processes. This <span class="hlt">model</span> may then be important in constraining these processes, as well as in future efforts to improve parameterizations for δSA.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20110013051','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20110013051"><span id="translatedtitle">Electronic <span class="hlt">Absolute</span> Cartesian Autocollimator</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Leviton, Douglas B.</p> <p>2006-01-01</p> <p>An electronic <span class="hlt">absolute</span> Cartesian autocollimator performs the same basic optical function as does a conventional all-optical or a conventional electronic autocollimator but differs in the nature of its optical target and the manner in which the position of the image of the target is measured. The term <span class="hlt">absolute</span> in the name of this apparatus reflects the nature of the position measurement, which, unlike in a conventional electronic autocollimator, is based <span class="hlt">absolutely</span> on the position of the image rather than on an assumed proportionality between the position and the levels of processed analog electronic signals. The term Cartesian in the name of this apparatus reflects the nature of its optical target. Figure 1 depicts the electronic functional blocks of an electronic <span class="hlt">absolute</span> Cartesian autocollimator along with its basic optical layout, which is the same as that of a conventional autocollimator. Referring first to the optical layout and functions only, this or any autocollimator is used to measure the compound angular deviation of a flat datum mirror with respect to the optical axis of the autocollimator itself. The optical components include an illuminated target, a beam splitter, an objective or collimating lens, and a viewer or detector (described in more detail below) at a viewing plane. The target and the viewing planes are focal planes of the lens. Target light reflected by the datum mirror is imaged on the viewing plane at unit magnification by the collimating lens. If the normal to the datum mirror is parallel to the optical axis of the autocollimator, then the target image is centered on the viewing plane. Any angular deviation of the normal from the optical axis manifests itself as a lateral displacement of the target image from the center. The magnitude of the displacement is proportional to the focal length and to the magnitude (assumed to be small) of the angular deviation. The direction of the displacement is perpendicular to the axis about which the</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4985325','PMC'); return false;" href="http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4985325"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Risk</span> assessment <span class="hlt">model</span> for invasive breast cancer in Hong Kong women</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Wang, Feng; Dai, Juncheng; Li, Mengjie; Chan, Wing-cheong; Kwok, Carol Chi-hei; Leung, Siu-lan; Wu, Cherry; Li, Wentao; Yu, Wai-cho; Tsang, Koon-ho; Law, Sze-hong; Lee, Priscilla Ming-yi; Wong, Carmen Ka-man; Shen, Hongbing; Wong, Samuel Yeung-shan; Yang, Xiaohong R.; Tse, Lap Ah</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>Abstract No <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment tool is available for identifying high <span class="hlt">risk</span> population of breast cancer (BCa) in Hong Kong. A case–control study including 918 BCa cases and 923 controls was used to develop the <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment <span class="hlt">model</span> among Hong Kong Chinese women. Each participant received an in-depth interview to obtain their lifestyle and environmental <span class="hlt">risk</span> factors. Least <span class="hlt">absolute</span> shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) selection <span class="hlt">model</span> was used to select the optimal <span class="hlt">risk</span> factors (LASSO-<span class="hlt">model</span>). A <span class="hlt">risk</span> score system was constructed to evaluate the cumulative effects of selected factors. Bootstrap simulation was used to test the internal validation of the <span class="hlt">model</span>. <span class="hlt">Model</span> performance was evaluated by receiver-operator characteristic curves and the area under the curve (AUC). Age, number of parity, number of BCa cases in 1st-degree relatives, exposure to light at night, and sleep quality were the common <span class="hlt">risk</span> factors for all women. Alcohol drinking was included for premenopausal women; body mass index, age at menarche, age at 1st give birth, breast feeding, using of oral contraceptive, hormone replacement treatment, and history of benign breast diseases were included for postmenopausal women. The AUCs were 0.640 (95% CI, 0.598–0.681) and 0.655 (95% CI, 0.621–0.653) for pre- and postmenopausal women, respectively. Further subgroup evaluation revealed that the <span class="hlt">model</span> performance was better for women aged 50 to 70 years or ER-positive. This BCa <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment tool in Hong Kong Chinese women based on LASSO selection is promising, which shows a slightly higher discriminative accuracy than those developed in other populations. PMID:27512870</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li class="active"><span>9</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_9 --> <div id="page_10" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li class="active"><span>10</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="181"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27512870','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27512870"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Risk</span> assessment <span class="hlt">model</span> for invasive breast cancer in Hong Kong women.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Wang, Feng; Dai, Juncheng; Li, Mengjie; Chan, Wing-Cheong; Kwok, Carol Chi-Hei; Leung, Siu-Lan; Wu, Cherry; Li, Wentao; Yu, Wai-Cho; Tsang, Koon-Ho; Law, Sze-Hong; Lee, Priscilla Ming-Yi; Wong, Carmen Ka-Man; Shen, Hongbing; Wong, Samuel Yeung-Shan; Yang, Xiaohong R; Tse, Lap Ah</p> <p>2016-08-01</p> <p>No <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment tool is available for identifying high <span class="hlt">risk</span> population of breast cancer (BCa) in Hong Kong. A case-control study including 918 BCa cases and 923 controls was used to develop the <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment <span class="hlt">model</span> among Hong Kong Chinese women.Each participant received an in-depth interview to obtain their lifestyle and environmental <span class="hlt">risk</span> factors. Least <span class="hlt">absolute</span> shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) selection <span class="hlt">model</span> was used to select the optimal <span class="hlt">risk</span> factors (LASSO-<span class="hlt">model</span>). A <span class="hlt">risk</span> score system was constructed to evaluate the cumulative effects of selected factors. Bootstrap simulation was used to test the internal validation of the <span class="hlt">model</span>. <span class="hlt">Model</span> performance was evaluated by receiver-operator characteristic curves and the area under the curve (AUC).Age, number of parity, number of BCa cases in 1st-degree relatives, exposure to light at night, and sleep quality were the common <span class="hlt">risk</span> factors for all women. Alcohol drinking was included for premenopausal women; body mass index, age at menarche, age at 1st give birth, breast feeding, using of oral contraceptive, hormone replacement treatment, and history of benign breast diseases were included for postmenopausal women. The AUCs were 0.640 (95% CI, 0.598-0.681) and 0.655 (95% CI, 0.621-0.653) for pre- and postmenopausal women, respectively. Further subgroup evaluation revealed that the <span class="hlt">model</span> performance was better for women aged 50 to 70 years or ER-positive.This BCa <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment tool in Hong Kong Chinese women based on LASSO selection is promising, which shows a slightly higher discriminative accuracy than those developed in other populations. PMID:27512870</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/20723030','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/20723030"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Absolute</span> solvation free energy of Li{sup +} and Na{sup +} ions in dimethyl sulfoxide solution: A theoretical ab initio and cluster-continuum <span class="hlt">model</span> study</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Westphal, Eduard; Pliego, Josefredo R. Jr.</p> <p>2005-08-15</p> <p>The solvation of the lithium and sodium ions in dimethyl sulfoxide solution was theoretically investigated using ab initio calculations coupled with the hybrid cluster-continuum <span class="hlt">model</span>, a quasichemical theory of solvation. We have investigated clusters of ions with up to five dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO) molecules, and the bulk solvent was described by a dielectric continuum <span class="hlt">model</span>. Our results show that the lithium and sodium ions have four and five DMSO molecules into the first coordination shell, and the calculated solvation free energies are -135.5 and -108.6 kcal mol{sup -1}, respectively. These data suggest a solvation free energy value of -273.2 kcal mol{sup -1} for the proton in dimethyl sulfoxide solution, a value that is more negative than the present uncertain experimental value. This and previous studies on the solvation of ions in water solution indicate that the tetraphenylarsonium tetraphenylborate assumption is flawed and the <span class="hlt">absolute</span> value of the free energy of transfer of ions from water to DMSO solution is higher than the present experimental values.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EPSC...10..717D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EPSC...10..717D"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Absolute</span> magnitudes of trans-neptunian objects</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Duffard, R.; Alvarez-candal, A.; Pinilla-Alonso, N.; Ortiz, J. L.; Morales, N.; Santos-Sanz, P.; Thirouin, A.</p> <p>2015-10-01</p> <p>Accurate measurements of diameters of trans- Neptunian objects are extremely complicated to obtain. Radiomatric techniques applied to thermal measurements can provide good results, but precise <span class="hlt">absolute</span> magnitudes are needed to constrain diameters and albedos. Our objective is to measure accurate <span class="hlt">absolute</span> magnitudes for a sample of trans- Neptunian objects, many of which have been observed, and <span class="hlt">modelled</span>, by the "TNOs are cool" team, one of Herschel Space Observatory key projects grantes with ~ 400 hours of observing time. We observed 56 objects in filters V and R, if possible. These data, along with data available in the literature, was used to obtain phase curves and to measure <span class="hlt">absolute</span> magnitudes by assuming a linear trend of the phase curves and considering magnitude variability due to rotational light-curve. In total we obtained 234 new magnitudes for the 56 objects, 6 of them with no reported previous measurements. Including the data from the literature we report a total of 109 <span class="hlt">absolute</span> magnitudes.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/921934','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/921934"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">ABSOLUTE</span> POLARIMETRY AT RHIC.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>OKADA; BRAVAR, A.; BUNCE, G.; GILL, R.; HUANG, H.; MAKDISI, Y.; NASS, A.; WOOD, J.; ZELENSKI, Z.; ET AL.</p> <p>2007-09-10</p> <p>Precise and <span class="hlt">absolute</span> beam polarization measurements are critical for the RHIC spin physics program. Because all experimental spin-dependent results are normalized by beam polarization, the normalization uncertainty contributes directly to final physics uncertainties. We aimed to perform the beam polarization measurement to an accuracy Of {Delta}P{sub beam}/P{sub beam} < 5%. The <span class="hlt">absolute</span> polarimeter consists of Polarized Atomic Hydrogen Gas Jet Target and left-right pairs of silicon strip detectors and was installed in the RHIC-ring in 2004. This system features proton-proton elastic scattering in the Coulomb nuclear interference (CNI) region. Precise measurements of the analyzing power A{sub N} of this process has allowed us to achieve {Delta}P{sub beam}/P{sub beam} = 4.2% in 2005 for the first long spin-physics run. In this report, we describe the entire set up and performance of the system. The procedure of beam polarization measurement and analysis results from 2004-2005 are described. Physics topics of AN in the CNI region (four-momentum transfer squared 0.001 < -t < 0.032 (GeV/c){sup 2}) are also discussed. We point out the current issues and expected optimum accuracy in 2006 and the future.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/7604154','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/7604154"><span id="translatedtitle">A hybrid likelihood algorithm for <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">modelling</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Kellerer, A M; Kreisheimer, M; Chmelevsky, D; Barclay, D</p> <p>1995-03-01</p> <p>The <span class="hlt">risk</span> of radiation-induced cancer is assessed through the follow-up of large cohorts, such as atomic bomb survivors or underground miners who have been occupationally exposed to radon and its decay products. The <span class="hlt">models</span> relate to the dose, age and time dependence of the excess tumour rates, and they contain parameters that are estimated in terms of maximum likelihood computations. The computations are performed with the software package EPI-CURE, which contains the two main options of person-by person regression or of Poisson regression with grouped data. The Poisson regression is most frequently employed, but there are certain <span class="hlt">models</span> that require an excessive number of cells when grouped data are used. One example involves computations that account explicitly for the temporal distribution of continuous exposures, as they occur with underground miners. In past work such <span class="hlt">models</span> had to be approximated, but it is shown here that they can be treated explicitly in a suitably reformulated person-by person computation of the likelihood. The algorithm uses the familiar partitioning of the log-likelihood into two terms, L1 and L0. The first term, L1, represents the contribution of the 'events' (tumours). It needs to be evaluated in the usual way, but constitutes no computational problem. The second term, L0, represents the event-free periods of observation. It is, in its usual form, unmanageable for large cohorts. However, it can be reduced to a simple form, in which the number of computational steps is independent of cohort size. The method requires less computing time and computer memory, but more importantly it leads to more stable numerical results by obviating the need for grouping the data. The algorithm may be most relevant to radiation <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">modelling</span>, but it can facilitate the <span class="hlt">modelling</span> of failure-time data in general. PMID:7604154</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4090456','PMC'); return false;" href="http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4090456"><span id="translatedtitle">Automating <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Analysis of Software Design <span class="hlt">Models</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Ruiz, Guifré; Heymann, Elisa; César, Eduardo; Miller, Barton P.</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>The growth of the internet and networked systems has exposed software to an increased amount of security threats. One of the responses from software developers to these threats is the introduction of security activities in the software development lifecycle. This paper describes an approach to reduce the need for costly human expertise to perform <span class="hlt">risk</span> analysis in software, which is common in secure development methodologies, by automating threat <span class="hlt">modeling</span>. Reducing the dependency on security experts aims at reducing the cost of secure development by allowing non-security-aware developers to apply secure development with little to no additional cost, making secure development more accessible. To automate threat <span class="hlt">modeling</span> two data structures are introduced, identification trees and mitigation trees, to identify threats in software designs and advise mitigation techniques, while taking into account specification requirements and cost concerns. These are the components of our <span class="hlt">model</span> for automated threat <span class="hlt">modeling</span>, AutSEC. We validated AutSEC by implementing it in a tool based on data flow diagrams, from the Microsoft security development methodology, and applying it to VOMS, a grid middleware component, to evaluate our <span class="hlt">model</span>'s performance. PMID:25136688</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25136688','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25136688"><span id="translatedtitle">Automating <span class="hlt">risk</span> analysis of software design <span class="hlt">models</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Frydman, Maxime; Ruiz, Guifré; Heymann, Elisa; César, Eduardo; Miller, Barton P</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>The growth of the internet and networked systems has exposed software to an increased amount of security threats. One of the responses from software developers to these threats is the introduction of security activities in the software development lifecycle. This paper describes an approach to reduce the need for costly human expertise to perform <span class="hlt">risk</span> analysis in software, which is common in secure development methodologies, by automating threat <span class="hlt">modeling</span>. Reducing the dependency on security experts aims at reducing the cost of secure development by allowing non-security-aware developers to apply secure development with little to no additional cost, making secure development more accessible. To automate threat <span class="hlt">modeling</span> two data structures are introduced, identification trees and mitigation trees, to identify threats in software designs and advise mitigation techniques, while taking into account specification requirements and cost concerns. These are the components of our <span class="hlt">model</span> for automated threat <span class="hlt">modeling</span>, AutSEC. We validated AutSEC by implementing it in a tool based on data flow diagrams, from the Microsoft security development methodology, and applying it to VOMS, a grid middleware component, to evaluate our <span class="hlt">model</span>'s performance. PMID:25136688</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27364351','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27364351"><span id="translatedtitle">A full-dimensional <span class="hlt">model</span> of ozone forming reaction: the <span class="hlt">absolute</span> value of the recombination rate coefficient, its pressure and temperature dependencies.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Teplukhin, Alexander; Babikov, Dmitri</p> <p>2016-07-28</p> <p>Rigorous calculations of scattering resonances in ozone are carried out for a broad range of rotational excitations. The accurate potential energy surface of Dawes is adopted, and a new efficient method for calculations of ro-vibrational energies, wave functions and resonance lifetimes is employed (which uses hyper-spherical coordinates, the sequential diagonalization/truncation approach, grid optimization and complex absorbing potential). A detailed analysis is carried out to characterize distributions of resonance energies and lifetimes, their rotational/vibrational content and their positions with respect to the centrifugal barrier. Emphasis is on the contribution of these resonances to the recombination process that forms ozone. It is found that major contributions come from localized resonances at energies near the top of the barrier. Delocalized resonances at higher energies should also be taken into account, while very narrow resonances at low energies (trapped far behind the centrifugal barrier) should be treated as bound states. The <span class="hlt">absolute</span> value of the recombination rate coefficient, its pressure and temperature dependencies are obtained using the energy-transfer <span class="hlt">model</span> developed in the earlier work. Good agreement with experimental data is obtained if one follows the suggestion of Troe, who argued that the energy transfer mechanism of recombination is responsible only for 55% of the recombination rate (with the remaining 45% coming from the competing chaperon mechanism). PMID:27364351</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/21471260','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/21471260"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">MODELING</span> MULTI-WAVELENGTH STELLAR ASTROMETRY. II. DETERMINING <span class="hlt">ABSOLUTE</span> INCLINATIONS, GRAVITY-DARKENING COEFFICIENTS, AND SPOT PARAMETERS OF SINGLE STARS WITH SIM LITE</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Coughlin, Jeffrey L.; Harrison, Thomas E.; Gelino, Dawn M.</p> <p>2010-11-10</p> <p>We present a novel technique to determine the <span class="hlt">absolute</span> inclination of single stars using multi-wavelength submilliarcsecond astrometry. The technique exploits the effect of gravity darkening, which causes a wavelength-dependent astrometric displacement parallel to a star's projected rotation axis. We find that this effect is clearly detectable using SIM Lite for various giant stars and rapid rotators, and present detailed <span class="hlt">models</span> for multiple systems using the REFLUX code. We also explore the multi-wavelength astrometric reflex motion induced by spots on single stars. We find that it should be possible to determine spot size, relative temperature, and some positional information for both giant and nearby main-sequence stars utilizing multi-wavelength SIM Lite data. These data will be extremely useful in stellar and exoplanet astrophysics, as well as supporting the primary SIM Lite mission through proper multi-wavelength calibration of the giant star astrometric reference frame, and reduction of noise introduced by starspots when searching for extrasolar planets.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFM.T13C2631C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFM.T13C2631C"><span id="translatedtitle">Extreme Earthquake <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Estimation by Hybrid <span class="hlt">Modeling</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Chavez, M.; Cabrera, E.; Ashworth, M.; Garcia, S.; Emerson, D.; Perea, N.; Salazar, A.; Moulinec, C.</p> <p>2012-12-01</p> <p>The estimation of the hazard and the economical consequences i.e. the <span class="hlt">risk</span> associated to the occurrence of extreme magnitude earthquakes in the neighborhood of urban or lifeline infrastructure, such as the 11 March 2011 Mw 9, Tohoku, Japan, represents a complex challenge as it involves the propagation of seismic waves in large volumes of the earth crust, from unusually large seismic source ruptures up to the infrastructure location. The large number of casualties and huge economic losses observed for those earthquakes, some of which have a frequency of occurrence of hundreds or thousands of years, calls for the development of new paradigms and methodologies in order to generate better estimates, both of the seismic hazard, as well as of its consequences, and if possible, to estimate the probability distributions of their ground intensities and of their economical impacts (direct and indirect losses), this in order to implement technological and economical policies to mitigate and reduce, as much as possible, the mentioned consequences. Herewith, we propose a hybrid <span class="hlt">modeling</span> which uses 3D seismic wave propagation (3DWP) and neural network (NN) <span class="hlt">modeling</span> in order to estimate the seismic <span class="hlt">risk</span> of extreme earthquakes. The 3DWP <span class="hlt">modeling</span> is achieved by using a 3D finite difference code run in the ~100 thousands cores Blue Gene Q supercomputer of the STFC Daresbury Laboratory of UK, combined with empirical Green function (EGF) techniques and NN algorithms. In particular the 3DWP is used to generate broadband samples of the 3D wave propagation of extreme earthquakes (plausible) scenarios corresponding to synthetic seismic sources and to enlarge those samples by using feed-forward NN. We present the results of the validation of the proposed hybrid <span class="hlt">modeling</span> for Mw 8 subduction events, and show examples of its application for the estimation of the hazard and the economical consequences, for extreme Mw 8.5 subduction earthquake scenarios with seismic sources in the Mexican</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010EGUGA..12.7814M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010EGUGA..12.7814M"><span id="translatedtitle">Four Years of <span class="hlt">Absolute</span> Gravity in the Taiwan Orogen (AGTO)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Mouyen, Maxime; Masson, Frédéric; Hwang, Cheinway; Cheng, Ching-Chung; Le Moigne, Nicolas; Lee, Chiung-Wu; Kao, Ricky; Hsieh, Nicky</p> <p>2010-05-01</p> <p>AGTO is a scientific project between Taiwanese and French institutes, which aim is to improve tectonic knowledge of Taiwan primarily using <span class="hlt">absolute</span> gravity measurements and permanent GPS stations. Both tools are indeed useful to study vertical movements and mass transfers involved in mountain building, a major process in Taiwan located at the convergent margin between Philippine Sea plate and Eurasian plate. This convergence results in two subductions north and south of Taiwan (Ryukyu and Manilla trenches, respectively), while the center is experiencing collision. These processes make Taiwan very active tectonically, as illustrated by numerous large earthquakes and rapid uplift of the Central Range. High slopes of Taiwan mountains and heavy rains brought by typhoons together lead to high landslides and mudflows <span class="hlt">risks</span>. Practically, <span class="hlt">absolute</span> gravity measurements have been yearly repeated since 2006 along a transect across south Taiwan, from Penghu to Lutao islands, using FG5 <span class="hlt">absolute</span> gravimeters. This transect contains ten sites for <span class="hlt">absolute</span> measurements and has been densified in 2008 by incorporating 45 sites for relative gravity measurements with CG5 gravimeters. The last relative and <span class="hlt">absolute</span> measurements have been performed in November 2009. Most of the <span class="hlt">absolute</span> sites have been measured with a good accuracy, about 1 or 2 ?Gal. Only the site located in Tainan University has higher standard deviation, due to the city noise. We note that <span class="hlt">absolute</span> gravity changes seem to follow a trend in every site. However, straightforward tectonic interpretation of these trends is not valuable as many non-tectonic effects are supposed to change g with time, like groundwater or erosion. Estimating and removing these effects leads to a tectonic gravity signal, which has theoretically two origins : deep mass transfers around the site and vertical movements of the station. The latter can be well constrained by permanent GPS stations located close to the measurement pillar. Deep mass</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26022836','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26022836"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Absolutely</span> relative or relatively <span class="hlt">absolute</span>: violations of value invariance in human decision making.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Teodorescu, Andrei R; Moran, Rani; Usher, Marius</p> <p>2016-02-01</p> <p>Making decisions based on relative rather than <span class="hlt">absolute</span> information processing is tied to choice optimality via the accumulation of evidence differences and to canonical neural processing via accumulation of evidence ratios. These theoretical frameworks predict invariance of decision latencies to <span class="hlt">absolute</span> intensities that maintain differences and ratios, respectively. While information about the <span class="hlt">absolute</span> values of the choice alternatives is not necessary for choosing the best alternative, it may nevertheless hold valuable information about the context of the decision. To test the sensitivity of human decision making to <span class="hlt">absolute</span> values, we manipulated the intensities of brightness stimuli pairs while preserving either their differences or their ratios. Although asked to choose the brighter alternative relative to the other, participants responded faster to higher <span class="hlt">absolute</span> values. Thus, our results provide empirical evidence for human sensitivity to task irrelevant <span class="hlt">absolute</span> values indicating a hard-wired mechanism that precedes executive control. Computational investigations of several <span class="hlt">modelling</span> architectures reveal two alternative accounts for this phenomenon, which combine <span class="hlt">absolute</span> and relative processing. One account involves accumulation of differences with activation dependent processing noise and the other emerges from accumulation of <span class="hlt">absolute</span> values subject to the temporal dynamics of lateral inhibition. The potential adaptive role of such choice mechanisms is discussed. PMID:26022836</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16463910','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16463910"><span id="translatedtitle">Implants as <span class="hlt">absolute</span> anchorage.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Rungcharassaeng, Kitichai; Kan, Joseph Y K; Caruso, Joseph M</p> <p>2005-11-01</p> <p>Anchorage control is essential for successful orthodontic treatment. Each tooth has its own anchorage potential as well as propensity to move when force is applied. When teeth are used as anchorage, the untoward movements of the anchoring units may result in the prolonged treatment time, and unpredictable or less-than-ideal outcome. To maximize tooth-related anchorage, techniques such as differential torque, placing roots into the cortex of the bone, the use of various intraoral devices and/or extraoral appliances have been implemented. Implants, as they are in direct contact with bone, do not possess a periodontal ligament. As a result, they do not move when orthodontic/orthopedic force is applied, and therefore can be used as "<span class="hlt">absolute</span> anchorage." This article describes different types of implants that have been used as orthodontic anchorage. Their clinical applications and limitations are also discussed. PMID:16463910</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20040110742','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20040110742"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Absolute</span> Equilibrium Entropy</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Shebalin, John V.</p> <p>1997-01-01</p> <p>The entropy associated with <span class="hlt">absolute</span> equilibrium ensemble theories of ideal, homogeneous, fluid and magneto-fluid turbulence is discussed and the three-dimensional fluid case is examined in detail. A sigma-function is defined, whose minimum value with respect to global parameters is the entropy. A comparison is made between the use of global functions sigma and phase functions H (associated with the development of various H-theorems of ideal turbulence). It is shown that the two approaches are complimentary though conceptually different: H-theorems show that an isolated system tends to equilibrium while sigma-functions allow the demonstration that entropy never decreases when two previously isolated systems are combined. This provides a more complete picture of entropy in the statistical mechanics of ideal fluids.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2847701','PMC'); return false;" href="http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2847701"><span id="translatedtitle">Multi-locus <span class="hlt">models</span> of genetic <span class="hlt">risk</span> of disease</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p></p> <p>2010-01-01</p> <p>Background Evidence for genetic contribution to complex diseases is described by recurrence <span class="hlt">risks</span> to relatives of diseased individuals. Genome-wide association studies allow a description of the genetics of the same diseases in terms of <span class="hlt">risk</span> loci, their effects and allele frequencies. To reconcile the two descriptions requires a <span class="hlt">model</span> of how <span class="hlt">risks</span> from individual loci combine to determine an individual's overall <span class="hlt">risk</span>. Methods We derive predictions of <span class="hlt">risk</span> to relatives from <span class="hlt">risks</span> at individual loci under a number of <span class="hlt">models</span> and compare them with published data on disease <span class="hlt">risk</span>. Results The <span class="hlt">model</span> in which <span class="hlt">risks</span> are multiplicative on the <span class="hlt">risk</span> scale implies equality between the recurrence <span class="hlt">risk</span> to monozygotic twins and the square of the recurrence <span class="hlt">risk</span> to sibs, a relationship often not observed, especially for low prevalence diseases. We show that this theoretical equality is achieved by allowing impossible probabilities of disease. Other <span class="hlt">models</span>, in which probabilities of disease are constrained to a maximum of one, generate results more consistent with empirical estimates for a range of diseases. Conclusions The unconstrained multiplicative <span class="hlt">model</span>, often used in theoretical studies because of its mathematical tractability, is not a realistic <span class="hlt">model</span>. We find three <span class="hlt">models</span>, the constrained multiplicative, Odds (or Logit) and Probit (or liability threshold) <span class="hlt">models</span>, all fit the data on <span class="hlt">risk</span> to relatives. Currently, in practice it would be difficult to differentiate between these <span class="hlt">models</span>, but this may become possible if genetic variants that explain the majority of the genetic variance are identified. PMID:20181060</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/5296104','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/5296104"><span id="translatedtitle">Radiation carcinogenesis in man: influence of dose-response <span class="hlt">models</span> and <span class="hlt">risk</span> projection <span class="hlt">models</span> in the estimation of <span class="hlt">risk</span> coefficients following exposure to low-level radiation</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Fabrikant, J.I.</p> <p>1982-02-01</p> <p>The somatic effects of concern in human populations exposed to low doses and low dose rates of ionizing radiations are those that may be induced by mutation in individual cells, singly or in small numbers. The most important of these is considered to be cancer induction. Current knowledge of the carcinogenic effect of radiation in man has been reviewed in two recent reports: the 1977 UNSCEAR Report; and the 1980 BEIR-III Report. Both reports emphasize that cancers of the breast, thyroid, hematopoietic tissues, lung, and bone can be induced by radiation. Other cancers, including the stomach, pancreas, pharynx, lymphatic, and perhaps all tissues of the body, may also be induced by radiation. Both reports calculate <span class="hlt">risk</span> estimates in <span class="hlt">absolute</span> and relative terms for low-dose, low-LET whole-body exposure, and for leukemia, breast cancer, thyroid cancer, lung cancer, and other cancers. These estimates derive from exposure and cancer incidence data at high doses and at high dose rates. There are no compelling scientific reasons to apply these values of <span class="hlt">risk</span> to the very low doses and low dose rates of concern in human radiation protection. In the absence of reliable human data for calculating <span class="hlt">risk</span> estimates, dose-response <span class="hlt">models</span> have been constructed from extrapolations of animal data and high-dose-rate human data for projection of estimated <span class="hlt">risks</span> at low doses and low dose rates. (ERB)</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3938504','PMC'); return false;" href="http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3938504"><span id="translatedtitle">Using Multivariate Regression <span class="hlt">Model</span> with Least <span class="hlt">Absolute</span> Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) to Predict the Incidence of Xerostomia after Intensity-Modulated Radiotherapy for Head and Neck Cancer</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Ting, Hui-Min; Chang, Liyun; Huang, Yu-Jie; Wu, Jia-Ming; Wang, Hung-Yu; Horng, Mong-Fong; Chang, Chun-Ming; Lan, Jen-Hong; Huang, Ya-Yu; Fang, Fu-Min; Leung, Stephen Wan</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>Purpose The aim of this study was to develop a multivariate logistic regression <span class="hlt">model</span> with least <span class="hlt">absolute</span> shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) to make valid predictions about the incidence of moderate-to-severe patient-rated xerostomia among head and neck cancer (HNC) patients treated with IMRT. Methods and Materials Quality of life questionnaire datasets from 206 patients with HNC were analyzed. The European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer QLQ-H&N35 and QLQ-C30 questionnaires were used as the endpoint evaluation. The primary endpoint (grade 3+ xerostomia) was defined as moderate-to-severe xerostomia at 3 (XER3m) and 12 months (XER12m) after the completion of IMRT. Normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) <span class="hlt">models</span> were developed. The optimal and suboptimal numbers of prognostic factors for a multivariate logistic regression <span class="hlt">model</span> were determined using the LASSO with bootstrapping technique. Statistical analysis was performed using the scaled Brier score, Nagelkerke R2, chi-squared test, Omnibus, Hosmer-Lemeshow test, and the AUC. Results Eight prognostic factors were selected by LASSO for the 3-month time point: Dmean-c, Dmean-i, age, financial status, T stage, AJCC stage, smoking, and education. Nine prognostic factors were selected for the 12-month time point: Dmean-i, education, Dmean-c, smoking, T stage, baseline xerostomia, alcohol abuse, family history, and node classification. In the selection of the suboptimal number of prognostic factors by LASSO, three suboptimal prognostic factors were fine-tuned by Hosmer-Lemeshow test and AUC, i.e., Dmean-c, Dmean-i, and age for the 3-month time point. Five suboptimal prognostic factors were also selected for the 12-month time point, i.e., Dmean-i, education, Dmean-c, smoking, and T stage. The overall performance for both time points of the NTCP <span class="hlt">model</span> in terms of scaled Brier score, Omnibus, and Nagelkerke R2 was satisfactory and corresponded well with the expected values. Conclusions</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/661660','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/661660"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Risk</span> assessment compatible fire <span class="hlt">models</span> (RACFMs)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Lopez, A.R.; Gritzo, L.A.; Sherman, M.P.</p> <p>1998-07-01</p> <p>A suite of Probabilistic <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Assessment Compatible Fire <span class="hlt">Models</span> (RACFMs) has been developed to represent the hazard posed by a pool fire to weapon systems transported on the B52-H aircraft. These <span class="hlt">models</span> represent both stand-off (i.e., the weapon system is outside of the flame zone but exposed to the radiant heat load from fire) and fully-engulfing scenarios (i.e., the object is fully covered by flames). The approach taken in developing the RACFMs for both scenarios was to consolidate, reconcile, and apply data and knowledge from all available resources including: data and correlations from the literature, data from an extensive full-scale fire test program at the Naval Air Warfare Center (NAWC) at China Lake, and results from a fire field <span class="hlt">model</span> (VULCAN). In the past, a single, effective temperature, T{sub f}, was used to represent the fire. The heat flux to an object exposed to a fire was estimated using the relationship for black body radiation, {sigma}T{sub f}{sup 4}. Significant improvements have been made by employing the present approach which accounts for the presence of temperature distributions in fully-engulfing fires, and uses best available correlations to estimate heat fluxes in stand-off scenarios.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21763781','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21763781"><span id="translatedtitle">Aquatic <span class="hlt">models</span>, genomics and chemical <span class="hlt">risk</span> management.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Cheng, Keith C; Hinton, David E; Mattingly, Carolyn J; Planchart, Antonio</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>The 5th Aquatic Animal <span class="hlt">Models</span> for Human Disease meeting follows four previous meetings (Nairn et al., 2001; Schmale, 2004; Schmale et al., 2007; Hinton et al., 2009) in which advances in aquatic animal <span class="hlt">models</span> for human disease research were reported, and community discussion of future direction was pursued. At this meeting, discussion at a workshop entitled Bioinformatics and Computational Biology with Web-based Resources (20 September 2010) led to an important conclusion: Aquatic <span class="hlt">model</span> research using feral and experimental fish, in combination with web-based access to annotated anatomical atlases and toxicological databases, yields data that advance our understanding of human gene function, and can be used to facilitate environmental management and drug development. We propose here that the effects of genes and environment are best appreciated within an anatomical context - the specifically affected cells and organs in the whole animal. We envision the use of automated, whole-animal imaging at cellular resolution and computational morphometry facilitated by high-performance computing and automated entry into toxicological databases, as anchors for genetic and toxicological data, and as connectors between human and <span class="hlt">model</span> system data. These principles should be applied to both laboratory and feral fish populations, which have been virtually irreplaceable sentinals for environmental contamination that results in human morbidity and mortality. We conclude that automation, database generation, and web-based accessibility, facilitated by genomic/transcriptomic data and high-performance and cloud computing, will potentiate the unique and potentially key roles that aquatic <span class="hlt">models</span> play in advancing systems biology, drug development, and environmental <span class="hlt">risk</span> management. PMID:21763781</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4184980','PMC'); return false;" href="http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4184980"><span id="translatedtitle">A <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Prediction <span class="hlt">Model</span> for Smoking Experimentation in Mexican American Youth</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Talluri, Rajesh; Wilkinson, Anna V.; Spitz, Margaret R.; Shete, Sanjay</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>Background Smoking experimentation in Mexican American youth is problematic. In light of the research showing that preventing smoking experimentation is a valid strategy for smoking prevention, there is a need to identify Mexican American youth at high <span class="hlt">risk</span> for experimentation. Methods A prospective population-based cohort of 1179 adolescents of Mexican descent was followed for 5 years starting in 2005–06. Participants completed a baseline interview at a home visit followed by three telephone interviews at intervals of approximately 6 months and additional interviews at two home visits in 2008–09 and 2010–11. The primary end point of interest in this study was smoking experimentation. Information regarding social, cultural, and behavioral factors (e.g., acculturation, susceptibility to experimentation, home characteristics, household influences) was collected at baseline using validated questionnaires. Results Age, sex, cognitive susceptibility, household smoking behavior, peer influence, neighborhood influence, acculturation, work characteristics, positive outcome expectations, family cohesion, degree of tension, ability to concentrate, and school discipline were found to be associated with smoking experimentation. In a validation dataset, the proposed <span class="hlt">risk</span> prediction <span class="hlt">model</span> had an AUC of 0.719 (95% confidence interval, 0.637 to 0.801)for predicting <span class="hlt">absolute</span> <span class="hlt">risk</span> for smoking experimentation within 1 year. Conclusions The proposed <span class="hlt">risk</span> prediction <span class="hlt">model</span> is able to quantify the <span class="hlt">risk</span> of smoking experimentation in Mexican American adolescents. PMID:25063521</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li class="active"><span>10</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_10 --> <div id="page_11" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li class="active"><span>11</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="201"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015CosRe..53..430M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015CosRe..53..430M"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Model</span> of meteoroid <span class="hlt">risk</span> in near-Earth space</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Mironov, V. V.; Murtazov, A. K.</p> <p>2015-11-01</p> <p>We present a <span class="hlt">model</span> of the <span class="hlt">risk</span> of meteoroid collision with spacecraft in near-Earth space. We assess the average <span class="hlt">risk</span> of collision between spacecraft and bright meteoroids of the Perseids stream in 2007-2013.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20130013580','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20130013580"><span id="translatedtitle">Galactic Cosmic Ray Event-Based <span class="hlt">Risk</span> <span class="hlt">Model</span> (GERM) Code</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Cucinotta, Francis A.; Plante, Ianik; Ponomarev, Artem L.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>This software describes the transport and energy deposition of the passage of galactic cosmic rays in astronaut tissues during space travel, or heavy ion beams in patients in cancer therapy. Space radiation <span class="hlt">risk</span> is a probability distribution, and time-dependent biological events must be accounted for physical description of space radiation transport in tissues and cells. A stochastic <span class="hlt">model</span> can calculate the probability density directly without unverified assumptions about shape of probability density function. The prior art of transport codes calculates the average flux and dose of particles behind spacecraft and tissue shielding. Because of the signaling times for activation and relaxation in the cell and tissue, transport code must describe temporal and microspatial density of functions to correlate DNA and oxidative damage with non-targeted effects of signals, bystander, etc. These are <span class="hlt">absolutely</span> ignored or impossible in the prior art. The GERM code provides scientists data interpretation of experiments; <span class="hlt">modeling</span> of beam line, shielding of target samples, and sample holders; and estimation of basic physical and biological outputs of their experiments. For mono-energetic ion beams, basic physical and biological properties are calculated for a selected ion type, such as kinetic energy, mass, charge number, absorbed dose, or fluence. Evaluated quantities are linear energy transfer (LET), range (R), absorption and fragmentation cross-sections, and the probability of nuclear interactions after 1 or 5 cm of water equivalent material. In addition, a set of biophysical properties is evaluated, such as the Poisson distribution for a specified cellular area, cell survival curves, and DNA damage yields per cell. Also, the GERM code calculates the radiation transport of the beam line for either a fixed number of user-specified depths or at multiple positions along the Bragg curve of the particle in a selected material. The GERM code makes the numerical estimates of basic</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26478959','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26478959"><span id="translatedtitle">Stimulus probability effects in <span class="hlt">absolute</span> identification.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Kent, Christopher; Lamberts, Koen</p> <p>2016-05-01</p> <p>This study investigated the effect of stimulus presentation probability on accuracy and response times in an <span class="hlt">absolute</span> identification task. Three schedules of presentation were used to investigate the interaction between presentation probability and stimulus position within the set. Data from individual participants indicated strong effects of presentation probability on both proportion correct and response times. The effects were moderated by the ubiquitous stimulus position effect. The accuracy and response time data were predicted by an exemplar-based <span class="hlt">model</span> of perceptual cognition (Kent & Lamberts, 2005). The bow in discriminability was also attenuated when presentation probability for middle items was relatively high, an effect that will constrain future <span class="hlt">model</span> development. The study provides evidence for item-specific learning in <span class="hlt">absolute</span> identification. Implications for other theories of <span class="hlt">absolute</span> identification are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record PMID:26478959</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://eric.ed.gov/?q=hiv+AND+structure&pg=3&id=EJ761608','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://eric.ed.gov/?q=hiv+AND+structure&pg=3&id=EJ761608"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Modeling</span> HIV <span class="hlt">Risk</span> in Highly Vulnerable Youth</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Huba, G. J.; Panter, A. T.; Melchior, Lisa A.; Trevithick, Lee; Woods, Elizabeth R.; Wright, Eric; Feudo, Rudy; Tierney, Steven; Schneir, Arlene; Tenner, Adam; Remafedi, Gary; Greenberg, Brian; Sturdevant, Marsha; Goodman, Elizabeth; Hodgins, Antigone; Wallace, Michael; Brady, Russell E.; Singer, Barney; Marconi, Katherine</p> <p>2003-01-01</p> <p>This article examines the structure of several HIV <span class="hlt">risk</span> behaviors in an ethnically and geographically diverse sample of 8,251 clients from 10 innovative demonstration projects intended for adolescents living with, or at <span class="hlt">risk</span> for, HIV. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses identified 2 <span class="hlt">risk</span> factors for men (sexual intercourse with men and a…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2972955','PMC'); return false;" href="http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2972955"><span id="translatedtitle">Bankruptcy <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">model</span> and empirical tests</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Podobnik, Boris; Horvatic, Davor; Petersen, Alexander M.; Urošević, Branko; Stanley, H. Eugene</p> <p>2010-01-01</p> <p>We analyze the size dependence and temporal stability of firm bankruptcy <span class="hlt">risk</span> in the US economy by applying Zipf scaling techniques. We focus on a single <span class="hlt">risk</span> factor—the debt-to-asset ratio R—in order to study the stability of the Zipf distribution of R over time. We find that the Zipf exponent increases during market crashes, implying that firms go bankrupt with larger values of R. Based on the Zipf analysis, we employ Bayes’s theorem and relate the conditional probability that a bankrupt firm has a ratio R with the conditional probability of bankruptcy for a firm with a given R value. For 2,737 bankrupt firms, we demonstrate size dependence in assets change during the bankruptcy proceedings. Prepetition firm assets and petition firm assets follow Zipf distributions but with different exponents, meaning that firms with smaller assets adjust their assets more than firms with larger assets during the bankruptcy process. We compare bankrupt firms with nonbankrupt firms by analyzing the assets and liabilities of two large subsets of the US economy: 2,545 Nasdaq members and 1,680 New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) members. We find that both assets and liabilities follow a Pareto distribution. The finding is not a trivial consequence of the Zipf scaling relationship of firm size quantified by employees—although the market capitalization of Nasdaq stocks follows a Pareto distribution, the same distribution does not describe NYSE stocks. We propose a coupled Simon <span class="hlt">model</span> that simultaneously evolves both assets and debt with the possibility of bankruptcy, and we also consider the possibility of firm mergers. PMID:20937903</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20937903','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20937903"><span id="translatedtitle">Bankruptcy <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">model</span> and empirical tests.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Podobnik, Boris; Horvatic, Davor; Petersen, Alexander M; Urosevic, Branko; Stanley, H Eugene</p> <p>2010-10-26</p> <p>We analyze the size dependence and temporal stability of firm bankruptcy <span class="hlt">risk</span> in the US economy by applying Zipf scaling techniques. We focus on a single <span class="hlt">risk</span> factor--the debt-to-asset ratio R--in order to study the stability of the Zipf distribution of R over time. We find that the Zipf exponent increases during market crashes, implying that firms go bankrupt with larger values of R. Based on the Zipf analysis, we employ Bayes's theorem and relate the conditional probability that a bankrupt firm has a ratio R with the conditional probability of bankruptcy for a firm with a given R value. For 2,737 bankrupt firms, we demonstrate size dependence in assets change during the bankruptcy proceedings. Prepetition firm assets and petition firm assets follow Zipf distributions but with different exponents, meaning that firms with smaller assets adjust their assets more than firms with larger assets during the bankruptcy process. We compare bankrupt firms with nonbankrupt firms by analyzing the assets and liabilities of two large subsets of the US economy: 2,545 Nasdaq members and 1,680 New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) members. We find that both assets and liabilities follow a Pareto distribution. The finding is not a trivial consequence of the Zipf scaling relationship of firm size quantified by employees--although the market capitalization of Nasdaq stocks follows a Pareto distribution, the same distribution does not describe NYSE stocks. We propose a coupled Simon <span class="hlt">model</span> that simultaneously evolves both assets and debt with the possibility of bankruptcy, and we also consider the possibility of firm mergers. PMID:20937903</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009cert.conf..552G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009cert.conf..552G"><span id="translatedtitle">Research on R&D Project <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Management <span class="hlt">Model</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Gu, Xiaoyan; Cai, Chen; Song, Hao; Song, Juan</p> <p></p> <p>R&D project is an exploratory high-<span class="hlt">risk</span> investment activity and has potential management flexibility. In R&D project <span class="hlt">risk</span> management process, it is hard to quantify <span class="hlt">risk</span> with very little past information available. This paper introduces quality function deployment and real option in traditional project <span class="hlt">risk</span> management process. Through waterfall decomposition mode, R&D project <span class="hlt">risk</span> management process is constructed step by step; through real option, the managerial flexibility inherent in R&D project can be <span class="hlt">modeled</span>. In the paper, first of all, according to the relation matrix between R&D project success factors and <span class="hlt">risk</span> indexes, <span class="hlt">risk</span> priority list can be obtained. Then, <span class="hlt">risk</span> features of various stages are analyzed. Finally, real options are embedded into various stages of R&D project by the <span class="hlt">risk</span> features. In order to effectively manage R&D <span class="hlt">risk</span> in a dynamic cycle, the steps above should be carried out repeatedly.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009SPIE.7174E..0LH','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009SPIE.7174E..0LH"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Absolute</span> near-infrared oximetry for urology: a quantitative study of the tissue hemoglobin saturation before and after testicular torsion in a rabbit <span class="hlt">model</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Hallacoglu, Bertan; Matulewicz, Richard S.; Paltiel, Harriet J.; Padua, Horacio; Gargollo, Patricio; Cannon, Glenn; Alomari, Ahmad; Sassaroli, Angelo; Fantini, Sergio</p> <p>2009-02-01</p> <p>We present an experimental study on four rabbits to demonstrate the feasibility of near-infrared spectroscopy in the noninvasive assessment of testicular torsion. We used a multi-distance frequency-domain method, based on a fixed detector position and a 9-mm linear scan of the illumination optical fibers, to measure <span class="hlt">absolute</span> values of pre- and post-operative testicular oxygen saturation. Unilateral testicular torsions (by 0°, 540° or 720°) on experimental testes and contralateral sham surgeries (no torsion) on control testes were performed and studied. Our results showed (a) a consistent baseline <span class="hlt">absolute</span> tissue oxygen saturation value of 78% +/- 5%; (b) a comparable <span class="hlt">absolute</span> saturation of 77% +/- 6% on the control side (testes after sham surgery); and (c) a significantly lower tissue oxygen saturation of 36% +/- 2% on the experimental side (testes after 540° or 720° torsion surgery). These results demonstrate the capability of frequency domain nearinfrared spectroscopy in the assessment of <span class="hlt">absolute</span> testicular hemoglobin desaturation caused by torsion, and show promise as a potential method to serve as a complement to conventional color and spectral Doppler ultrasonography.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CFR-2012-title42-vol3/pdf/CFR-2012-title42-vol3-sec425-600.pdf','CFR2012'); return false;" href="https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CFR-2012-title42-vol3/pdf/CFR-2012-title42-vol3-sec425-600.pdf"><span id="translatedtitle">42 CFR 425.600 - Selection of <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">model</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/browse/collectionCfr.action?selectedYearFrom=2012&page.go=Go">Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR</a></p> <p></p> <p>2012-10-01</p> <p>... 42 Public Health 3 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Selection of <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">model</span>. 425.600 Section 425.600... Selection of <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">model</span>. (a) For its initial agreement period, an ACO may elect to operate under one of the following tracks: (1) Track 1. Under Track 1, the ACO operates under the one-sided <span class="hlt">model</span> (as described...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CFR-2013-title42-vol3/pdf/CFR-2013-title42-vol3-sec425-600.pdf','CFR2013'); return false;" href="https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CFR-2013-title42-vol3/pdf/CFR-2013-title42-vol3-sec425-600.pdf"><span id="translatedtitle">42 CFR 425.600 - Selection of <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">model</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/browse/collectionCfr.action?selectedYearFrom=2013&page.go=Go">Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR</a></p> <p></p> <p>2013-10-01</p> <p>... 42 Public Health 3 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Selection of <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">model</span>. 425.600 Section 425.600... Selection of <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">model</span>. (a) For its initial agreement period, an ACO may elect to operate under one of the following tracks: (1) Track 1. Under Track 1, the ACO operates under the one-sided <span class="hlt">model</span> (as described...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CFR-2014-title42-vol3/pdf/CFR-2014-title42-vol3-sec425-600.pdf','CFR2014'); return false;" href="https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CFR-2014-title42-vol3/pdf/CFR-2014-title42-vol3-sec425-600.pdf"><span id="translatedtitle">42 CFR 425.600 - Selection of <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">model</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/browse/collectionCfr.action?selectedYearFrom=2014&page.go=Go">Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR</a></p> <p></p> <p>2014-10-01</p> <p>... 42 Public Health 3 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Selection of <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">model</span>. 425.600 Section 425.600... Selection of <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">model</span>. (a) For its initial agreement period, an ACO may elect to operate under one of the following tracks: (1) Track 1. Under Track 1, the ACO operates under the one-sided <span class="hlt">model</span> (as described...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19772472','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19772472"><span id="translatedtitle">Radiation <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">modeling</span> of thyroid cancer with special emphasis on the Chernobyl epidemiological data.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Walsh, L; Jacob, P; Kaiser, J C</p> <p>2009-10-01</p> <p>Two recent studies analyzed thyroid cancer incidence in Belarus and Ukraine during the period from 1990 to 2001, for the birth cohort 1968 to 1985, and the related (131)I exposure associated with the Chernobyl accident in 1986. Contradictory age-at-exposure and time-since-exposure effect modifications of the excess relative <span class="hlt">risk</span> (ERR) were reported. The present study identifies the choice of baseline <span class="hlt">modeling</span> method as the reason for the conflicting results. Various quality-of-fit criteria favor a parametric baseline <span class="hlt">model</span> to various categorical baseline <span class="hlt">models</span>. The <span class="hlt">model</span> with a parametric baseline results in a decrease of the ERR by a factor of about 0.2 from an age at exposure of 5 years to an age at exposure of 15 years (for a time since exposure of 12 years) and a decrease of the ERR from a time since exposure of 4 years to a time since exposure of 14 years of about 0.25 (for an age at exposure of 10 years). Central ERR estimates (of about 20 at 1 Gy for an age at exposure of 10 years and an attained age of 20 years) and their ratios for females compared to males (about 0.3) turn out to be relatively independent of the <span class="hlt">modeling</span>. Excess <span class="hlt">absolute</span> <span class="hlt">risk</span> estimates are also predicted to be very similar from the different <span class="hlt">models</span>. <span class="hlt">Risk</span> <span class="hlt">models</span> with parametric and categorical baselines were also applied to thyroid cancer incidence among the atomic bomb survivors. For young ages at exposure, the ERR values in the <span class="hlt">model</span> with a parametric baseline are larger. Both data sets cover the period of 12 to 15 years since exposure. For this period, higher ERR values and a stronger age-at-exposure modification are found for the Chernobyl data set. Based on the results of the study, it is recommended to test parametric and categorical baseline <span class="hlt">models</span> in <span class="hlt">risk</span> analyses. PMID:19772472</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/2519','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/2519"><span id="translatedtitle">Proliferation <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Characterization <span class="hlt">Model</span> Prototype <span class="hlt">Model</span> - User and Programmer Guidelines</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Dukelow, J.S.; Whitford, D.</p> <p>1998-12-01</p> <p>A <span class="hlt">model</span> for the estimation of the <span class="hlt">risk</span> of diversion of weapons-capable materials was developed. It represents both the threat of diversion and site vulnerability as a product of a small number of variables (two to eight), each of which can take on a small number (two to four) of qualitatively defined (but quantitatively implemented) values. The values of the overall threat and vulnerability variables are then converted to threat and vulnerability categories. The threat and vulnerability categories are used to define the likelihood of diversion, also defined categorically. The evaluator supplies an estimate of the consequences of a diversion, defined categorically, but with the categories based on the IAEA Attractiveness levels. Likelihood and Consequences categories are used to define the <span class="hlt">Risk</span>, also defined categorically. The threat, vulnerability, and consequences input provided by the evaluator contains a representation of his/her uncertainty in each variable assignment which is propagated all the way through to the calculation of the <span class="hlt">Risk</span> categories. [Appendix G available on diskette only.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://eric.ed.gov/?q=VALUE+AND+ABSOLUTE&id=EJ765743','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://eric.ed.gov/?q=VALUE+AND+ABSOLUTE&id=EJ765743"><span id="translatedtitle">Be Resolute about <span class="hlt">Absolute</span> Value</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Kidd, Margaret L.</p> <p>2007-01-01</p> <p>This article explores how conceptualization of <span class="hlt">absolute</span> value can start long before it is introduced. The manner in which <span class="hlt">absolute</span> value is introduced to students in middle school has far-reaching consequences for their future mathematical understanding. It begins to lay the foundation for students' understanding of algebra, which can change…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=83453&keyword=4th+AND+state&actType=&TIMSType=+&TIMSSubTypeID=&DEID=&epaNumber=&ntisID=&archiveStatus=Both&ombCat=Any&dateBeginCreated=&dateEndCreated=&dateBeginPublishedPresented=&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&dateBeginCompleted=&dateEndCompleted=&personID=&role=Any&journalID=&publisherID=&sortBy=revisionDate&count=50&CFID=68568238&CFTOKEN=99182741','EPA-EIMS'); return false;" href="http://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=83453&keyword=4th+AND+state&actType=&TIMSType=+&TIMSSubTypeID=&DEID=&epaNumber=&ntisID=&archiveStatus=Both&ombCat=Any&dateBeginCreated=&dateEndCreated=&dateBeginPublishedPresented=&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&dateBeginCompleted=&dateEndCompleted=&personID=&role=Any&journalID=&publisherID=&sortBy=revisionDate&count=50&CFID=68568238&CFTOKEN=99182741"><span id="translatedtitle">SMALL POPULATIONS REQUIRE SPECIFIC <span class="hlt">MODELING</span> APPROACHES FOR ASSESSING <span class="hlt">RISK</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://oaspub.epa.gov/eims/query.page">EPA Science Inventory</a></p> <p></p> <p></p> <p>All populations face non-zero <span class="hlt">risks</span> of extinction. However, the <span class="hlt">risks</span> for small populations, and therefore the <span class="hlt">modeling</span> approaches necessary to predict them, are different from those of large populations. These differences are currently hindering assessment of <span class="hlt">risk</span> to small pop...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70022256','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70022256"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Modeling</span> biotic habitat high <span class="hlt">risk</span> areas</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Despain, D.G.; Beier, P.; Tate, C.; Durtsche, B.M.; Stephens, T.</p> <p>2000-01-01</p> <p>Fire, especially stand replacing fire, poses a threat to many threatened and endangered species as well as their habitat. On the other hand, fire is important in maintaining a variety of successional stages that can be important for approach <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment to assist in prioritizing areas for allocation of fire mitigation funds. One example looks at assessing <span class="hlt">risk</span> to the species and biotic communities of concern followed by the Colorado Natural Heritage Program. One looks at the <span class="hlt">risk</span> to Mexican spottled owls. Another looks at the <span class="hlt">risk</span> to cutthroat trout, and a fourth considers the general effects of fire and elk.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=114371&keyword=supervision&actType=&TIMSType=+&TIMSSubTypeID=&DEID=&epaNumber=&ntisID=&archiveStatus=Both&ombCat=Any&dateBeginCreated=&dateEndCreated=&dateBeginPublishedPresented=&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&dateBeginCompleted=&dateEndCompleted=&personID=&role=Any&journalID=&publisherID=&sortBy=revisionDate&count=50&CFID=76752654&CFTOKEN=91062792','EPA-EIMS'); return false;" href="http://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=114371&keyword=supervision&actType=&TIMSType=+&TIMSSubTypeID=&DEID=&epaNumber=&ntisID=&archiveStatus=Both&ombCat=Any&dateBeginCreated=&dateEndCreated=&dateBeginPublishedPresented=&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&dateBeginCompleted=&dateEndCompleted=&personID=&role=Any&journalID=&publisherID=&sortBy=revisionDate&count=50&CFID=76752654&CFTOKEN=91062792"><span id="translatedtitle">MULTIMEDIA HUMAN EXPOSURE AND <span class="hlt">RISK</span> ASSESSMENT <span class="hlt">MODELING</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://oaspub.epa.gov/eims/query.page">EPA Science Inventory</a></p> <p></p> <p></p> <p>Exposures and health <span class="hlt">risk</span> comparisons from different sites may be used for allocating limited resources available for remedial action. It is important that comparisons between different sites use similar levels of site-specific data and/or screening level data. <span class="hlt">Risk</span> assessment c...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/1227359','DOE-PATENT-XML'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/1227359"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Absolute</span> nuclear material assay using count distribution (LAMBDA) space</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/doepatents">DOEpatents</a></p> <p>Prasad, Mano K.; Snyderman, Neal J.; Rowland, Mark S.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>A method of <span class="hlt">absolute</span> nuclear material assay of an unknown source comprising counting neutrons from the unknown source and providing an <span class="hlt">absolute</span> nuclear material assay utilizing a <span class="hlt">model</span> to optimally compare to the measured count distributions. In one embodiment, the step of providing an <span class="hlt">absolute</span> nuclear material assay comprises utilizing a random sampling of analytically computed fission chain distributions to generate a continuous time-evolving sequence of event-counts by spreading the fission chain distribution in time.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/1055713','DOE-PATENT-XML'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/1055713"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Absolute</span> nuclear material assay using count distribution (LAMBDA) space</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/doepatents">DOEpatents</a></p> <p>Prasad, Manoj K.; Snyderman, Neal J.; Rowland, Mark S.</p> <p>2012-06-05</p> <p>A method of <span class="hlt">absolute</span> nuclear material assay of an unknown source comprising counting neutrons from the unknown source and providing an <span class="hlt">absolute</span> nuclear material assay utilizing a <span class="hlt">model</span> to optimally compare to the measured count distributions. In one embodiment, the step of providing an <span class="hlt">absolute</span> nuclear material assay comprises utilizing a random sampling of analytically computed fission chain distributions to generate a continuous time-evolving sequence of event-counts by spreading the fission chain distribution in time.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/15001427','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/15001427"><span id="translatedtitle">Uses and Abuses of <span class="hlt">Models</span> in Radiation <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Management</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Strom, Daniel J.</p> <p>1998-12-10</p> <p>This paper is a high-level overview of managing <span class="hlt">risks</span> to workers, public, and the environment. It discusses the difference between a <span class="hlt">model</span> and a hypothesis. The need for <span class="hlt">models</span> in <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment is justified, and then it is shown that radiation <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">models</span> that are useable in <span class="hlt">risk</span> management are highly simplistic. The weight of evidence is considered for and against the linear non-threshold (LNT) <span class="hlt">model</span> for carcinogenesis and heritable ill-health that is currently the basis for radiation <span class="hlt">risk</span> management. Finally, uses and misuses of this <span class="hlt">model</span> are considered. It is concluded that the LNT <span class="hlt">model</span> continues to be suitable for use as the basis for radiation protection.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li class="active"><span>11</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_11 --> <div id="page_12" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li class="active"><span>12</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="221"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008JMSA....7..286Q&link_type=ABSTRACT','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008JMSA....7..286Q&link_type=ABSTRACT"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Risk</span> management <span class="hlt">modeling</span> and its application in maritime safety</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Qin, Ting-Rong; Chen, Wei-Jiong; Zeng, Xiang-Kun</p> <p>2008-12-01</p> <p>Quantified <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment (QRA) needs mathematicization of <span class="hlt">risk</span> theory. However, attention has been paid almost exclusively to applications of assessment methods, which has led to neglect of research into fundamental theories, such as the relationships among <span class="hlt">risk</span>, safety, danger, and so on. In order to solve this problem, as a first step, fundamental theoretical relationships about <span class="hlt">risk</span> and <span class="hlt">risk</span> management were analyzed for this paper in the light of mathematics, and then illustrated with some charts. Second, man-machine-environment-management (MMEM) theory was introduced into <span class="hlt">risk</span> theory to analyze some properties of <span class="hlt">risk</span>. On the basis of this, a three-dimensional <span class="hlt">model</span> of <span class="hlt">risk</span> management was established that includes: a goal dimension; a management dimension; an operation dimension. This goal management operation (GMO) <span class="hlt">model</span> was explained and then emphasis was laid on the discussion of the <span class="hlt">risk</span> flowchart (operation dimension), which lays the groundwork for further study of <span class="hlt">risk</span> management and qualitative and quantitative assessment. Next, the relationship between Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) and <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Management was researched. This revealed that the FSA method, which the international maritime organization (IMO) is actively spreading, comes from <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Management theory. Finally, conclusion were made about how to apply this <span class="hlt">risk</span> management method to concrete fields efficiently and conveniently, as well as areas where further research is required.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3748262','PMC'); return false;" href="http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3748262"><span id="translatedtitle">Building <span class="hlt">risk</span>-on-a-chip <span class="hlt">models</span> to improve breast cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment and prevention</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Vidi, Pierre-Alexandre; Leary, James; Lelièvre, Sophie A.</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>Summary Preventive actions for chronic diseases hold the promise of improving lives and reducing healthcare costs. For several diseases, including breast cancer, multiple <span class="hlt">risk</span> and protective factors have been identified by epidemiologists. The impact of most of these factors has yet to be fully understood at the organism, tissue, cellular and molecular levels. Importantly, combinations of external and internal <span class="hlt">risk</span> and protective factors involve cooperativity thus, synergizing or antagonizing disease onset. <span class="hlt">Models</span> are needed to mechanistically decipher cancer <span class="hlt">risks</span> under defined cellular and microenvironmental conditions. Here, we briefly review breast cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">models</span> based on 3D cell culture and propose to improve <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">modeling</span> with lab-on-a-chip approaches. We suggest epithelial tissue polarity, DNA repair and epigenetic profiles as endpoints in <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment <span class="hlt">models</span> and discuss the development of ‘<span class="hlt">risks</span>-on-chips’ integrating biosensors of these endpoints and of general tissue homeostasis. <span class="hlt">Risks</span>-on-chips will help identify biomarkers of <span class="hlt">risk</span>, serve as screening platforms for cancer preventive agents, and provide a better understanding of <span class="hlt">risk</span> mechanisms, hence resulting in novel developments in disease prevention. PMID:23681255</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AIPC.1522.1123K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AIPC.1522.1123K"><span id="translatedtitle">Estimation of value at <span class="hlt">risk</span> and conditional value at <span class="hlt">risk</span> using normal mixture distributions <span class="hlt">model</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kamaruzzaman, Zetty Ain; Isa, Zaidi</p> <p>2013-04-01</p> <p>Normal mixture distributions <span class="hlt">model</span> has been successfully applied in financial time series analysis. In this paper, we estimate the return distribution, value at <span class="hlt">risk</span> (VaR) and conditional value at <span class="hlt">risk</span> (CVaR) for monthly and weekly rates of returns for FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBMKLCI) from July 1990 until July 2010 using the two component univariate normal mixture distributions <span class="hlt">model</span>. First, we present the application of normal mixture distributions <span class="hlt">model</span> in empirical finance where we fit our real data. Second, we present the application of normal mixture distributions <span class="hlt">model</span> in <span class="hlt">risk</span> analysis where we apply the normal mixture distributions <span class="hlt">model</span> to evaluate the value at <span class="hlt">risk</span> (VaR) and conditional value at <span class="hlt">risk</span> (CVaR) with <span class="hlt">model</span> validation for both <span class="hlt">risk</span> measures. The empirical results provide evidence that using the two components normal mixture distributions <span class="hlt">model</span> can fit the data well and can perform better in estimating value at <span class="hlt">risk</span> (VaR) and conditional value at <span class="hlt">risk</span> (CVaR) where it can capture the stylized facts of non-normality and leptokurtosis in returns distribution.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21571428','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21571428"><span id="translatedtitle">A <span class="hlt">risk</span> analysis <span class="hlt">model</span> for radioactive wastes.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Külahcı, Fatih</p> <p>2011-07-15</p> <p>Hazardous wastes affect natural environmental systems to a significant extend, and therefore, it is necessary to control their harm through <span class="hlt">risk</span> analysis. Herein, an effective <span class="hlt">risk</span> methodology is proposed by considering their uncertain behaviors on stochastic, statistical and probabilistic bases. The basic element is attachment of a convenient probability distribution function (pdf) to a given waste quality measurement sequence. In this paper, (40)K contaminant measurements are adapted for <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment application after derivation of necessary fundamental formulations. The spatial contaminant distribution of (40)K is presented in the forms of maps and three-dimensional surfaces. PMID:21571428</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=209515&keyword=water+AND+intake&actType=&TIMSType=+&TIMSSubTypeID=&DEID=&epaNumber=&ntisID=&archiveStatus=Both&ombCat=Any&dateBeginCreated=&dateEndCreated=&dateBeginPublishedPresented=&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&dateBeginCompleted=&dateEndCompleted=&personID=&role=Any&journalID=&publisherID=&sortBy=revisionDate&count=50&CFID=68570712&CFTOKEN=57495737','EPA-EIMS'); return false;" href="http://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=209515&keyword=water+AND+intake&actType=&TIMSType=+&TIMSSubTypeID=&DEID=&epaNumber=&ntisID=&archiveStatus=Both&ombCat=Any&dateBeginCreated=&dateEndCreated=&dateBeginPublishedPresented=&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&dateBeginCompleted=&dateEndCompleted=&personID=&role=Any&journalID=&publisherID=&sortBy=revisionDate&count=50&CFID=68570712&CFTOKEN=57495737"><span id="translatedtitle">Source-to-Outcome Microbial Exposure and <span class="hlt">Risk</span> <span class="hlt">Modeling</span> Framework</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://oaspub.epa.gov/eims/query.page">EPA Science Inventory</a></p> <p></p> <p></p> <p>A Quantitative Microbial <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Assessment (QMRA) is a computer-based data-delivery and <span class="hlt">modeling</span> approach that integrates interdisciplinary fate/transport, exposure, and impact <span class="hlt">models</span> and databases to characterize potential health impacts/<span class="hlt">risks</span> due to pathogens. As such, a QMRA ex...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://eric.ed.gov/?q=suicide+AND+guide&pg=3&id=EJ585292','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://eric.ed.gov/?q=suicide+AND+guide&pg=3&id=EJ585292"><span id="translatedtitle">A Process <span class="hlt">Model</span> for Assessing Adolescent <span class="hlt">Risk</span> for Suicide.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Stoelb, Matt; Chiriboga, Jennifer</p> <p>1998-01-01</p> <p>This comprehensive assessment process <span class="hlt">model</span> includes primary, secondary, and situational <span class="hlt">risk</span> factors and their combined implications and significance in determining an adolescent's level or <span class="hlt">risk</span> for suicide. Empirical data and clinical intuition are integrated to form a working client <span class="hlt">model</span> that guides the professional in continuously reassessing…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26010201','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26010201"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Modeling</span> Finite-Time Failure Probabilities in <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Analysis Applications.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Dimitrova, Dimitrina S; Kaishev, Vladimir K; Zhao, Shouqi</p> <p>2015-10-01</p> <p>In this article, we introduce a framework for analyzing the <span class="hlt">risk</span> of systems failure based on estimating the failure probability. The latter is defined as the probability that a certain <span class="hlt">risk</span> process, characterizing the operations of a system, reaches a possibly time-dependent critical <span class="hlt">risk</span> level within a finite-time interval. Under general assumptions, we define two dually connected <span class="hlt">models</span> for the <span class="hlt">risk</span> process and derive explicit expressions for the failure probability and also the joint probability of the time of the occurrence of failure and the excess of the <span class="hlt">risk</span> process over the <span class="hlt">risk</span> level. We illustrate how these probabilistic <span class="hlt">models</span> and results can be successfully applied in several important areas of <span class="hlt">risk</span> analysis, among which are systems reliability, inventory management, flood control via dam management, infectious disease spread, and financial insolvency. Numerical illustrations are also presented. PMID:26010201</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JIEIC.tmp...10C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JIEIC.tmp...10C"><span id="translatedtitle">Quantified <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Ranking <span class="hlt">Model</span> for Condition-Based <span class="hlt">Risk</span> and Reliability Centered Maintenance</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Chattopadhyaya, Pradip Kumar; Basu, Sushil Kumar; Majumdar, Manik Chandra</p> <p>2016-03-01</p> <p>In the recent past, <span class="hlt">risk</span> and reliability centered maintenance (RRCM) framework is introduced with a shift in the methodological focus from reliability and probabilities (expected values) to reliability, uncertainty and <span class="hlt">risk</span>. In this paper authors explain a novel methodology for <span class="hlt">risk</span> quantification and ranking the critical items for prioritizing the maintenance actions on the basis of condition-based <span class="hlt">risk</span> and reliability centered maintenance (CBRRCM). The critical items are identified through criticality analysis of RPN values of items of a system and the maintenance significant precipitating factors (MSPF) of items are evaluated. The criticality of <span class="hlt">risk</span> is assessed using three <span class="hlt">risk</span> coefficients. The likelihood <span class="hlt">risk</span> coefficient treats the probability as a fuzzy number. The abstract <span class="hlt">risk</span> coefficient deduces <span class="hlt">risk</span> influenced by uncertainty, sensitivity besides other factors. The third <span class="hlt">risk</span> coefficient is called hazardous <span class="hlt">risk</span> coefficient, which is due to anticipated hazards which may occur in the future and the <span class="hlt">risk</span> is deduced from criteria of consequences on safety, environment, maintenance and economic <span class="hlt">risks</span> with corresponding cost for consequences. The characteristic values of all the three <span class="hlt">risk</span> coefficients are obtained with a particular test. With few more tests on the system, the values may change significantly within controlling range of each coefficient, hence `random number simulation' is resorted to obtain one distinctive value for each coefficient. The <span class="hlt">risk</span> coefficients are statistically added to obtain final <span class="hlt">risk</span> coefficient of each critical item and then the final rankings of critical items are estimated. The prioritization in ranking of critical items using the developed mathematical <span class="hlt">model</span> for <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment shall be useful in optimization of financial losses and timing of maintenance actions.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20150008563&hterms=quantitative&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D30%26Ntt%3Dquantitative','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20150008563&hterms=quantitative&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D30%26Ntt%3Dquantitative"><span id="translatedtitle">A Team Mental <span class="hlt">Model</span> Perspective of Pre-Quantitative <span class="hlt">Risk</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Cooper, Lynne P.</p> <p>2011-01-01</p> <p>This study was conducted to better understand how teams conceptualize <span class="hlt">risk</span> before it can be quantified, and the processes by which a team forms a shared mental <span class="hlt">model</span> of this pre-quantitative <span class="hlt">risk</span>. Using an extreme case, this study analyzes seven months of team meeting transcripts, covering the entire lifetime of the team. Through an analysis of team discussions, a rich and varied structural <span class="hlt">model</span> of <span class="hlt">risk</span> emerges that goes significantly beyond classical representations of <span class="hlt">risk</span> as the product of a negative consequence and a probability. In addition to those two fundamental components, the team conceptualization includes the ability to influence outcomes and probabilities, networks of goals, interaction effects, and qualitative judgments about the acceptability of <span class="hlt">risk</span>, all affected by associated uncertainties. In moving from individual to team mental <span class="hlt">models</span>, team members employ a number of strategies to gain group recognition of <span class="hlt">risks</span> and to resolve or accept differences.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005NHESS...5..357P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005NHESS...5..357P"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Modelling</span> public <span class="hlt">risk</span> evaluation of natural hazards: a conceptual approach</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Plattner, Th.</p> <p>2005-04-01</p> <p>In recent years, the dealing with natural hazards in Switzerland has shifted away from being hazard-oriented towards a <span class="hlt">risk</span>-based approach. Decreasing societal acceptance of <span class="hlt">risk</span>, accompanied by increasing marginal costs of protective measures and decreasing financial resources cause an optimization problem. Therefore, the new focus lies on the mitigation of the hazard's <span class="hlt">risk</span> in accordance with economical, ecological and social considerations. This modern proceeding requires an approach in which not only technological, engineering or scientific aspects of the definition of the hazard or the computation of the <span class="hlt">risk</span> are considered, but also the public concerns about the acceptance of these <span class="hlt">risks</span>. These aspects of a modern <span class="hlt">risk</span> approach enable a comprehensive assessment of the (<span class="hlt">risk</span>) situation and, thus, sound <span class="hlt">risk</span> management decisions. In Switzerland, however, the competent authorities suffer from a lack of decision criteria, as they don't know what <span class="hlt">risk</span> level the public is willing to accept. Consequently, there exists a need for the authorities to know what the society thinks about <span class="hlt">risks</span>. A formalized <span class="hlt">model</span> that allows at least a crude simulation of the public <span class="hlt">risk</span> evaluation could therefore be a useful tool to support effective and efficient <span class="hlt">risk</span> mitigation measures. This paper presents a conceptual approach of such an evaluation <span class="hlt">model</span> using perception affecting factors PAF, evaluation criteria EC and several factors without any immediate relation to the <span class="hlt">risk</span> itself, but to the evaluating person. Finally, the decision about the acceptance Acc of a certain <span class="hlt">risk</span> i is made by a comparison of the perceived <span class="hlt">risk</span> Ri,perc with the acceptable <span class="hlt">risk</span> Ri,acc.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19000078','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19000078"><span id="translatedtitle">A comprehensive Network Security <span class="hlt">Risk</span> <span class="hlt">Model</span> for process control networks.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Henry, Matthew H; Haimes, Yacov Y</p> <p>2009-02-01</p> <p>The <span class="hlt">risk</span> of cyber attacks on process control networks (PCN) is receiving significant attention due to the potentially catastrophic extent to which PCN failures can damage the infrastructures and commodity flows that they support. <span class="hlt">Risk</span> management addresses the coupled problems of (1) reducing the likelihood that cyber attacks would succeed in disrupting PCN operation and (2) reducing the severity of consequences in the event of PCN failure or manipulation. The Network Security <span class="hlt">Risk</span> <span class="hlt">Model</span> (NSRM) developed in this article provides a means of evaluating the efficacy of candidate <span class="hlt">risk</span> management policies by <span class="hlt">modeling</span> the baseline <span class="hlt">risk</span> and assessing expectations of <span class="hlt">risk</span> after the implementation of candidate measures. Where existing <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">models</span> fall short of providing adequate insight into the efficacy of candidate <span class="hlt">risk</span> management policies due to shortcomings in their structure or formulation, the NSRM provides <span class="hlt">model</span> structure and an associated <span class="hlt">modeling</span> methodology that captures the relevant dynamics of cyber attacks on PCN for <span class="hlt">risk</span> analysis. This article develops the NSRM in detail in the context of an illustrative example. PMID:19000078</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15784202','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15784202"><span id="translatedtitle">The effects of vehicle <span class="hlt">model</span> and driver behavior on <span class="hlt">risk</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Wenzel, Thomas P; Ross, Marc</p> <p>2005-05-01</p> <p>We study the dependence of <span class="hlt">risk</span> on vehicle type and especially on vehicle <span class="hlt">model</span>. Here, <span class="hlt">risk</span> is measured by the number of driver fatalities per year per million vehicles registered. We analyze both the <span class="hlt">risk</span> to the drivers of each vehicle <span class="hlt">model</span> and the <span class="hlt">risk</span> the vehicle <span class="hlt">model</span> imposes on drivers of other vehicles with which it crashes. The "combined <span class="hlt">risk</span>" associated with each vehicle <span class="hlt">model</span> is simply the sum of the <span class="hlt">risk</span>-to-drivers in all kinds of crashes and the <span class="hlt">risk</span>-to-drivers-of-other-vehicles in two-vehicle crashes. We find that most car <span class="hlt">models</span> are as safe to their drivers as most sport utility vehicles (SUVs); the increased <span class="hlt">risk</span> of a rollover in a SUV roughly balances the higher <span class="hlt">risk</span> for cars that collide with SUVs and pickup trucks. We find that SUVs and to a greater extent pickup trucks, impose much greater <span class="hlt">risks</span> than cars on drivers of other vehicles; and these <span class="hlt">risks</span> increase with increasing pickup size. The higher aggressivity of SUVs and pickups makes their combined <span class="hlt">risk</span> higher than that of almost all cars. Effects of light truck design on their <span class="hlt">risk</span> are revealed by the analysis of specific <span class="hlt">models</span>: new unibody (or "crossover") SUVs appear, in preliminary analysis, to have much lower <span class="hlt">risks</span> than the most popular truck-based SUVs. Much has been made in the past about the high <span class="hlt">risk</span> of low-mass cars in certain kinds of collisions. We find there are other plausible explanations for this pattern of <span class="hlt">risk</span>, which suggests that mass may not be fundamental to safety. While not conclusive, this is potentially important because improvement in fuel economy is a major goal for designers of new vehicles. We find that accounting for the most risky drivers, young males and the elderly, does not change our general results. Similarly, we find with California data that the high <span class="hlt">risk</span> of rural driving and the high level of rural driving by pickups does not increase the <span class="hlt">risk</span>-to-drivers of pickups relative to that for cars. However, other more subtle differences in drivers and the</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://eric.ed.gov/?q=risk+AND+assessment&pg=2&id=EJ1044295','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://eric.ed.gov/?q=risk+AND+assessment&pg=2&id=EJ1044295"><span id="translatedtitle">Assessing Academic <span class="hlt">Risk</span> of Student-Athletes: Applicability of the NCAA Graduation <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Overview <span class="hlt">Model</span> to GPA</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Johnson, James</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>In an effort to standardize academic <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment, the NCAA developed the graduation <span class="hlt">risk</span> overview (GRO) <span class="hlt">model</span>. Although this <span class="hlt">model</span> was designed to assess graduation <span class="hlt">risk</span>, its ability to predict grade-point average (GPA) remained unknown. Therefore, 134 individual <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessments were made to determine GRO <span class="hlt">model</span> effectiveness in the…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015APS..MARF45011M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015APS..MARF45011M"><span id="translatedtitle">Nonequilibrium equalities in <span class="hlt">absolutely</span> irreversible processes</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Murashita, Yuto; Funo, Ken; Ueda, Masahito</p> <p>2015-03-01</p> <p>Nonequilibrium equalities have attracted considerable attention in the context of statistical mechanics and information thermodynamics. Integral nonequilibrium equalities reveal an ensemble property of the entropy production σ as <e-σ > = 1 . Although nonequilibrium equalities apply to rather general nonequilibrium situations, they break down in <span class="hlt">absolutely</span> irreversible processes, where the forward-path probability vanishes and the entropy production diverges. We identify the mathematical origins of this inapplicability as the singularity of probability measure. As a result, we generalize conventional integral nonequilibrium equalities to <span class="hlt">absolutely</span> irreversible processes as <e-σ > = 1 -λS , where λS is the probability of the singular part defined based on Lebesgue's decomposition theorem. The acquired equality contains two physical quantities related to irreversibility: σ characterizing ordinary irreversibility and λS describing <span class="hlt">absolute</span> irreversibility. An inequality derived from the obtained equality demonstrates the <span class="hlt">absolute</span> irreversibility leads to the fundamental lower bound on the entropy production. We demonstrate the validity of the obtained equality for a simple <span class="hlt">model</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20683654','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20683654"><span id="translatedtitle">Ecological <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment of water environment for Luanhe River Basin based on relative <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">model</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Liu, Jingling; Chen, Qiuying; Li, Yongli</p> <p>2010-11-01</p> <p>The relative <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">model</span> (RRM) was applied in regional ecological <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessments successfully. In this study, the RRM was developed through increasing the data of <span class="hlt">risk</span> source and introducing the source-stressor-habitat exposure filter (SSH), the endpoint-habitat exposure filter (EH) and the stressor-endpoint effect filter (SE) to reflect the meaning of exposure and effect more explicit. Water environment which include water quality, water quantity and aquatic ecosystems was selected as the ecological <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment endpoints. The Luanhe River Basin located in the North China was selected as <span class="hlt">model</span> case. The results showed that there were three low <span class="hlt">risk</span> regions, one medium <span class="hlt">risk</span> region and two high <span class="hlt">risk</span> regions in the Luanhe River Basin. The results also indicated habitat destruction was the largest stressor with the <span class="hlt">risk</span> scores as high as 11.87 for the Luanhe water environment, the second was oxygen consuming organic pollutants (9.28) and the third was nutrients (7.78). So these three stressors were the main influencing factors of the ecological pressure in the study area. Furthermore, animal husbandry was the biggest source with the <span class="hlt">risk</span> scores as high as 20.38, the second was domestic sewage (14.00), and the third was polluting industry (9.96). For habitats, waters and farmland were enduring the bigger pressure and should be taken considerable attention. Water deterioration and ecological service values damaged were facing the biggest <span class="hlt">risk</span> pressure, and secondly was biodiversity decreased and landscape fragmentation. PMID:20683654</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20080010658','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20080010658"><span id="translatedtitle">The Integrated Medical <span class="hlt">Model</span>: Statistical Forecasting of <span class="hlt">Risks</span> to Crew Health and Mission Success</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Fitts, M. A.; Kerstman, E.; Butler, D. J.; Walton, M. E.; Minard, C. G.; Saile, L. G.; Toy, S.; Myers, J.</p> <p>2008-01-01</p> <p>The Integrated Medical <span class="hlt">Model</span> (IMM) helps capture and use organizational knowledge across the space medicine, training, operations, engineering, and research domains. The IMM uses this domain knowledge in the context of a mission and crew profile to forecast crew health and mission success <span class="hlt">risks</span>. The IMM is most helpful in comparing the <span class="hlt">risk</span> of two or more mission profiles, not as a tool for predicting <span class="hlt">absolute</span> <span class="hlt">risk</span>. The process of building the IMM adheres to Probability <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Assessment (PRA) techniques described in NASA Procedural Requirement (NPR) 8705.5, and uses current evidence-based information to establish a defensible position for making decisions that help ensure crew health and mission success. The IMM quantitatively describes the following input parameters: 1) medical conditions and likelihood, 2) mission duration, 3) vehicle environment, 4) crew attributes (e.g. age, sex), 5) crew activities (e.g. EVA's, Lunar excursions), 6) diagnosis and treatment protocols (e.g. medical equipment, consumables pharmaceuticals), and 7) Crew Medical Officer (CMO) training effectiveness. It is worth reiterating that the IMM uses the data sets above as inputs. Many other <span class="hlt">risk</span> management efforts stop at determining only likelihood. The IMM is unique in that it <span class="hlt">models</span> not only likelihood, but <span class="hlt">risk</span> mitigations, as well as subsequent clinical outcomes based on those mitigations. Once the mathematical relationships among the above parameters are established, the IMM uses a Monte Carlo simulation technique (a random sampling of the inputs as described by their statistical distribution) to determine the probable outcomes. Because the IMM is a stochastic <span class="hlt">model</span> (i.e. the input parameters are represented by various statistical distributions depending on the data type), when the mission is simulated 10-50,000 times with a given set of medical capabilities (<span class="hlt">risk</span> mitigations), a prediction of the most probable outcomes can be generated. For each mission, the IMM tracks which conditions</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19960051870&hterms=rosenberg&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D50%26Ntt%3Drosenberg','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19960051870&hterms=rosenberg&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D50%26Ntt%3Drosenberg"><span id="translatedtitle">A software quality <span class="hlt">model</span> and metrics for <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Hyatt, L.; Rosenberg, L.</p> <p>1996-01-01</p> <p>A software quality <span class="hlt">model</span> and its associated attributes are defined and used as the <span class="hlt">model</span> for the basis for a discussion on <span class="hlt">risk</span>. Specific quality goals and attributes are selected based on their importance to a software development project and their ability to be quantified. <span class="hlt">Risks</span> that can be determined by the <span class="hlt">model</span>'s metrics are identified. A core set of metrics relating to the software development process and its products is defined. Measurements for each metric and their usability and applicability are discussed.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=135584&keyword=decision+AND+making+AND+age&actType=&TIMSType=+&TIMSSubTypeID=&DEID=&epaNumber=&ntisID=&archiveStatus=Both&ombCat=Any&dateBeginCreated=&dateEndCreated=&dateBeginPublishedPresented=&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&dateBeginCompleted=&dateEndCompleted=&personID=&role=Any&journalID=&publisherID=&sortBy=revisionDate&count=50&CFID=67215105&CFTOKEN=55715200','EPA-EIMS'); return false;" href="http://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=135584&keyword=decision+AND+making+AND+age&actType=&TIMSType=+&TIMSSubTypeID=&DEID=&epaNumber=&ntisID=&archiveStatus=Both&ombCat=Any&dateBeginCreated=&dateEndCreated=&dateBeginPublishedPresented=&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&dateBeginCompleted=&dateEndCompleted=&personID=&role=Any&journalID=&publisherID=&sortBy=revisionDate&count=50&CFID=67215105&CFTOKEN=55715200"><span id="translatedtitle">HUMAN EXPOSURE <span class="hlt">MODELING</span> FOR CUMULATIVE <span class="hlt">RISK</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://oaspub.epa.gov/eims/query.page">EPA Science Inventory</a></p> <p></p> <p></p> <p>US EPA's Office of Research and Development (ORD) has identified cumulative <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment as a priority research area. This is because humans and other organisms are exposed to a multitude of chemicals, physical agents, and other stressors through multiple pathways, routes, an...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://eric.ed.gov/?q=ecological+AND+risks&pg=7&id=EJ841356','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://eric.ed.gov/?q=ecological+AND+risks&pg=7&id=EJ841356"><span id="translatedtitle">Latent <span class="hlt">Model</span> Analysis of Substance Use and HIV <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Behaviors among High-<span class="hlt">Risk</span> Minority Adults</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Wang, Min Qi; Matthew, Resa F.; Chiu, Yu-Wen; Yan, Fang; Bellamy, Nikki D.</p> <p>2007-01-01</p> <p>Objectives: This study evaluated substance use and HIV <span class="hlt">risk</span> profile using a latent <span class="hlt">model</span> analysis based on ecological theory, inclusive of a <span class="hlt">risk</span> and protective factor framework, in sexually active minority adults (N=1,056) who participated in a federally funded substance abuse and HIV prevention health initiative from 2002 to 2006. Methods: Data…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3225074','PMC'); return false;" href="http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3225074"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Risk</span> <span class="hlt">models</span> and scores for type 2 diabetes: systematic review</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Mathur, Rohini; Dent, Tom; Meads, Catherine; Greenhalgh, Trisha</p> <p>2011-01-01</p> <p>Objective To evaluate current <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">models</span> and scores for type 2 diabetes and inform selection and implementation of these in practice. Design Systematic review using standard (quantitative) and realist (mainly qualitative) methodology. Inclusion criteria Papers in any language describing the development or external validation, or both, of <span class="hlt">models</span> and scores to predict the <span class="hlt">risk</span> of an adult developing type 2 diabetes. Data sources Medline, PreMedline, Embase, and Cochrane databases were searched. Included studies were citation tracked in Google Scholar to identify follow-on studies of usability or impact. Data extraction Data were extracted on statistical properties of <span class="hlt">models</span>, details of internal or external validation, and use of <span class="hlt">risk</span> scores beyond the studies that developed them. Quantitative data were tabulated to compare <span class="hlt">model</span> components and statistical properties. Qualitative data were analysed thematically to identify mechanisms by which use of the <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">model</span> or score might improve patient outcomes. Results 8864 titles were scanned, 115 full text papers considered, and 43 papers included in the final sample. These described the prospective development or validation, or both, of 145 <span class="hlt">risk</span> prediction <span class="hlt">models</span> and scores, 94 of which were studied in detail here. They had been tested on 6.88 million participants followed for up to 28 years. Heterogeneity of primary studies precluded meta-analysis. Some but not all <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">models</span> or scores had robust statistical properties (for example, good discrimination and calibration) and had been externally validated on a different population. Genetic markers added nothing to <span class="hlt">models</span> over clinical and sociodemographic factors. Most authors described their score as “simple” or “easily implemented,” although few were specific about the intended users and under what circumstances. Ten mechanisms were identified by which measuring diabetes <span class="hlt">risk</span> might improve outcomes. Follow-on studies that applied a <span class="hlt">risk</span> score as part of an</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li class="active"><span>12</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_12 --> <div id="page_13" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li class="active"><span>13</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="241"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26732943','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26732943"><span id="translatedtitle">Radiation <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">models</span> for all solid cancers other than those types of cancer requiring individual assessments after a nuclear accident.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Walsh, Linda; Zhang, Wei</p> <p>2016-03-01</p> <p>In the assessment of health <span class="hlt">risks</span> after nuclear accidents, some health consequences require special attention. For example, in their 2013 report on health <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment after the Fukushima nuclear accident, the World Health Organisation (WHO) panel of experts considered <span class="hlt">risks</span> of breast cancer, thyroid cancer and leukaemia. For these specific cancer types, use was made of already published excess relative <span class="hlt">risk</span> (ERR) and excess <span class="hlt">absolute</span> <span class="hlt">risk</span> (EAR) <span class="hlt">models</span> for radiation-related cancer incidence fitted to the epidemiological data from the Japanese A-bomb Life Span Study (LSS). However, it was also considered important to assess all other types of solid cancer together and the WHO, in their above-mentioned report, stated "No <span class="hlt">model</span> to calculate the <span class="hlt">risk</span> for all other solid cancer excluding breast and thyroid cancer <span class="hlt">risks</span> is available from the LSS data". Applying the LSS <span class="hlt">models</span> for all solid cancers along with the <span class="hlt">models</span> for the specific sites means that some cancers have an overlap in the <span class="hlt">risk</span> evaluations. Thus, calculating the total solid cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span> plus the breast cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span> plus the thyroid cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span> can overestimate the total <span class="hlt">risk</span> by several per cent. Therefore, the purpose of this paper was to publish the required <span class="hlt">models</span> for all other solid cancers, i.e. all solid cancers other than those types of cancer requiring special attention after a nuclear accident. The new <span class="hlt">models</span> presented here have been fitted to the same LSS data set from which the <span class="hlt">risks</span> provided by the WHO were derived. Although it is known already that the EAR and ERR effect modifications by sex are statistically significant for the outcome "all solid cancer", it is shown here that sex modification is not statistically significant for the outcome "all solid cancer other than thyroid and breast cancer". It is also shown here that the sex-averaged solid cancer <span class="hlt">risks</span> with and without the sex modification are very similar once breast and thyroid cancers are factored out. Some other notable <span class="hlt">model</span></p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20840492','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20840492"><span id="translatedtitle">A <span class="hlt">risk</span> analysis <span class="hlt">model</span> in concurrent engineering product development.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Wu, Desheng Dash; Kefan, Xie; Gang, Chen; Ping, Gui</p> <p>2010-09-01</p> <p>Concurrent engineering has been widely accepted as a viable strategy for companies to reduce time to market and achieve overall cost savings. This article analyzes various <span class="hlt">risks</span> and challenges in product development under the concurrent engineering environment. A three-dimensional early warning approach for product development <span class="hlt">risk</span> management is proposed by integrating graphical evaluation and review technique (GERT) and failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA). Simulation <span class="hlt">models</span> are created to solve our proposed concurrent engineering product development <span class="hlt">risk</span> management <span class="hlt">model</span>. Solutions lead to identification of key <span class="hlt">risk</span> controlling points. This article demonstrates the value of our approach to <span class="hlt">risk</span> analysis as a means to monitor various <span class="hlt">risks</span> typical in the manufacturing sector. This article has three main contributions. First, we establish a conceptual framework to classify various <span class="hlt">risks</span> in concurrent engineering (CE) product development (PD). Second, we propose use of existing quantitative approaches for PD <span class="hlt">risk</span> analysis purposes: GERT, FMEA, and product database management (PDM). Based on quantitative tools, we create our approach for <span class="hlt">risk</span> management of CE PD and discuss solutions of the <span class="hlt">models</span>. Third, we demonstrate the value of applying our approach using data from a typical Chinese motor company. PMID:20840492</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5009929','PMC'); return false;" href="http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5009929"><span id="translatedtitle">National Veterans Health Administration inpatient <span class="hlt">risk</span> stratification <span class="hlt">models</span> for hospital-acquired acute kidney injury</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Cronin, Robert M; VanHouten, Jacob P; Siew, Edward D; Eden, Svetlana K; Fihn, Stephan D; Nielson, Christopher D; Peterson, Josh F; Baker, Clifton R; Ikizler, T Alp; Speroff, Theodore</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Objective Hospital-acquired acute kidney injury (HA-AKI) is a potentially preventable cause of morbidity and mortality. Identifying high-<span class="hlt">risk</span> patients prior to the onset of kidney injury is a key step towards AKI prevention. Materials and Methods A national retrospective cohort of 1,620,898 patient hospitalizations from 116 Veterans Affairs hospitals was assembled from electronic health record (EHR) data collected from 2003 to 2012. HA-AKI was defined at stage 1+, stage 2+, and dialysis. EHR-based predictors were identified through logistic regression, least <span class="hlt">absolute</span> shrinkage and selection operator (lasso) regression, and random forests, and pair-wise comparisons between each were made. Calibration and discrimination metrics were calculated using 50 bootstrap iterations. In the final <span class="hlt">models</span>, we report odds ratios, 95% confidence intervals, and importance rankings for predictor variables to evaluate their significance. Results The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the different <span class="hlt">model</span> outcomes ranged from 0.746 to 0.758 in stage 1+, 0.714 to 0.720 in stage 2+, and 0.823 to 0.825 in dialysis. Logistic regression had the best AUC in stage 1+ and dialysis. Random forests had the best AUC in stage 2+ but the least favorable calibration plots. Multiple <span class="hlt">risk</span> factors were significant in our <span class="hlt">models</span>, including some nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, blood pressure medications, antibiotics, and intravenous fluids given during the first 48 h of admission. Conclusions This study demonstrated that, although all the <span class="hlt">models</span> tested had good discrimination, performance characteristics varied between methods, and the random forests <span class="hlt">models</span> did not calibrate as well as the lasso or logistic regression <span class="hlt">models</span>. In addition, novel modifiable <span class="hlt">risk</span> factors were explored and found to be significant. PMID:26104740</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26752233','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26752233"><span id="translatedtitle">Learning in the temporal bisection task: Relative or <span class="hlt">absolute</span>?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>de Carvalho, Marilia Pinheiro; Machado, Armando; Tonneau, François</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>We examined whether temporal learning in a bisection task is <span class="hlt">absolute</span> or relational. Eight pigeons learned to choose a red key after a t-seconds sample and a green key after a 3t-seconds sample. To determine whether they had learned a relative mapping (short→Red, long→Green) or an <span class="hlt">absolute</span> mapping (t-seconds→Red, 3t-seconds→Green), the pigeons then learned a series of new discriminations in which either the relative or the <span class="hlt">absolute</span> mapping was maintained. Results showed that the generalization gradient obtained at the end of a discrimination predicted the pattern of choices made during the first session of a new discrimination. Moreover, most acquisition curves and generalization gradients were consistent with the predictions of the learning-to-time <span class="hlt">model</span>, a Spencean <span class="hlt">model</span> that instantiates <span class="hlt">absolute</span> learning with temporal generalization. In the bisection task, the basis of temporal discrimination seems to be <span class="hlt">absolute</span>, not relational. PMID:26752233</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=279651&keyword=Cloud+AND+Computing&actType=&TIMSType=+&TIMSSubTypeID=&DEID=&epaNumber=&ntisID=&archiveStatus=Both&ombCat=Any&dateBeginCreated=&dateEndCreated=&dateBeginPublishedPresented=&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&dateBeginCompleted=&dateEndCompleted=&personID=&role=Any&journalID=&publisherID=&sortBy=revisionDate&count=50&CFID=77970717&CFTOKEN=58200475','EPA-EIMS'); return false;" href="http://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=279651&keyword=Cloud+AND+Computing&actType=&TIMSType=+&TIMSSubTypeID=&DEID=&epaNumber=&ntisID=&archiveStatus=Both&ombCat=Any&dateBeginCreated=&dateEndCreated=&dateBeginPublishedPresented=&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&dateBeginCompleted=&dateEndCompleted=&personID=&role=Any&journalID=&publisherID=&sortBy=revisionDate&count=50&CFID=77970717&CFTOKEN=58200475"><span id="translatedtitle">Back-end Science <span class="hlt">Model</span> Integration for Ecological <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Assessment</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://oaspub.epa.gov/eims/query.page">EPA Science Inventory</a></p> <p></p> <p></p> <p>The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) relies on a number of ecological <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment <span class="hlt">models</span> that have been developed over 30-plus years of regulating pesticide exposure and <span class="hlt">risks</span> under Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA) and the Endangered Spe...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=307375&keyword=Cloud+AND+Computing&actType=&TIMSType=+&TIMSSubTypeID=&DEID=&epaNumber=&ntisID=&archiveStatus=Both&ombCat=Any&dateBeginCreated=&dateEndCreated=&dateBeginPublishedPresented=&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&dateBeginCompleted=&dateEndCompleted=&personID=&role=Any&journalID=&publisherID=&sortBy=revisionDate&count=50&CFID=77970717&CFTOKEN=58200475','EPA-EIMS'); return false;" href="http://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=307375&keyword=Cloud+AND+Computing&actType=&TIMSType=+&TIMSSubTypeID=&DEID=&epaNumber=&ntisID=&archiveStatus=Both&ombCat=Any&dateBeginCreated=&dateEndCreated=&dateBeginPublishedPresented=&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&dateBeginCompleted=&dateEndCompleted=&personID=&role=Any&journalID=&publisherID=&sortBy=revisionDate&count=50&CFID=77970717&CFTOKEN=58200475"><span id="translatedtitle">Back-end Science <span class="hlt">Model</span> Integration for Ecological <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Assessment.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://oaspub.epa.gov/eims/query.page">EPA Science Inventory</a></p> <p></p> <p></p> <p>The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) relies on a number of ecological <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment <span class="hlt">models</span> that have been developed over 30-plus years of regulating pesticide exposure and <span class="hlt">risks</span> under Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA) and the Endangered Spe...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4865607','PMC'); return false;" href="http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4865607"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Risk</span> prediction <span class="hlt">models</span> for hepatocellular carcinoma in different populations</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Ma, Xiao; Yang, Yang; Tu, Hong; Gao, Jing; Tan, Yu-Ting; Zheng, Jia-Li; Bray, Freddie; Xiang, Yong-Bing</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a malignant disease with limited therapeutic options due to its aggressive progression. It places heavy burden on most low and middle income countries to treat HCC patients. Nowadays accurate HCC <span class="hlt">risk</span> predictions can help making decisions on the need for HCC surveillance and antiviral therapy. HCC <span class="hlt">risk</span> prediction <span class="hlt">models</span> based on major <span class="hlt">risk</span> factors of HCC are useful and helpful in providing adequate surveillance strategies to individuals who have different <span class="hlt">risk</span> levels. Several <span class="hlt">risk</span> prediction <span class="hlt">models</span> among cohorts of different populations for estimating HCC incidence have been presented recently by using simple, efficient, and ready-to-use parameters. Moreover, using predictive scoring systems to assess HCC development can provide suggestions to improve clinical and public health approaches, making them more cost-effective and effort-effective, for inducing personalized surveillance programs according to <span class="hlt">risk</span> stratification. In this review, the features of <span class="hlt">risk</span> prediction <span class="hlt">models</span> of HCC across different populations were summarized, and the perspectives of HCC <span class="hlt">risk</span> prediction <span class="hlt">models</span> were discussed as well. PMID:27199512</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27199512','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27199512"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Risk</span> prediction <span class="hlt">models</span> for hepatocellular carcinoma in different populations.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Ma, Xiao; Yang, Yang; Tu, Hong; Gao, Jing; Tan, Yu-Ting; Zheng, Jia-Li; Bray, Freddie; Xiang, Yong-Bing</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a malignant disease with limited therapeutic options due to its aggressive progression. It places heavy burden on most low and middle income countries to treat HCC patients. Nowadays accurate HCC <span class="hlt">risk</span> predictions can help making decisions on the need for HCC surveillance and antiviral therapy. HCC <span class="hlt">risk</span> prediction <span class="hlt">models</span> based on major <span class="hlt">risk</span> factors of HCC are useful and helpful in providing adequate surveillance strategies to individuals who have different <span class="hlt">risk</span> levels. Several <span class="hlt">risk</span> prediction <span class="hlt">models</span> among cohorts of different populations for estimating HCC incidence have been presented recently by using simple, efficient, and ready-to-use parameters. Moreover, using predictive scoring systems to assess HCC development can provide suggestions to improve clinical and public health approaches, making them more cost-effective and effort-effective, for inducing personalized surveillance programs according to <span class="hlt">risk</span> stratification. In this review, the features of <span class="hlt">risk</span> prediction <span class="hlt">models</span> of HCC across different populations were summarized, and the perspectives of HCC <span class="hlt">risk</span> prediction <span class="hlt">models</span> were discussed as well. PMID:27199512</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.epi.grants.cancer.gov/cancer_risk_prediction/other_multiple.html','NCI'); return false;" href="http://www.epi.grants.cancer.gov/cancer_risk_prediction/other_multiple.html"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Risk</span> Prediction <span class="hlt">Models</span> for Other Cancers or Multiple Sites</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.cancer.gov">Cancer.gov</a></p> <p></p> <p></p> <p>Developing statistical <span class="hlt">models</span> that estimate the probability of developing other multiple cancers over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher <span class="hlt">risk</span> of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease <span class="hlt">risk</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2732996','PMC'); return false;" href="http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2732996"><span id="translatedtitle">Competing <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Regression <span class="hlt">Models</span> for Epidemiologic Data</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Cole, Stephen R.; Gange, Stephen J.</p> <p>2009-01-01</p> <p>Competing events can preclude the event of interest from occurring in epidemiologic data and can be analyzed by using extensions of survival analysis methods. In this paper, the authors outline 3 regression approaches for estimating 2 key quantities in competing <span class="hlt">risks</span> analysis: the cause-specific relative hazard (csRH) and the subdistribution relative hazard (sdRH). They compare and contrast the structure of the <span class="hlt">risk</span> sets and the interpretation of parameters obtained with these methods. They also demonstrate the use of these methods with data from the Women's Interagency HIV Study established in 1993, treating time to initiation of highly active antiretroviral therapy or to clinical disease progression as competing events. In our example, women with an injection drug use history were less likely than those without a history of injection drug use to initiate therapy prior to progression to acquired immunodeficiency syndrome or death by both measures of association (csRH = 0.67, 95% confidence interval: 0.57, 0.80 and sdRH = 0.60, 95% confidence interval: 0.50, 0.71). Moreover, the relative hazards for disease progression prior to treatment were elevated (csRH = 1.71, 95% confidence interval: 1.37, 2.13 and sdRH = 2.01, 95% confidence interval: 1.62, 2.51). Methods for competing <span class="hlt">risks</span> should be used by epidemiologists, with the choice of method guided by the scientific question. PMID:19494242</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3777552','PMC'); return false;" href="http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3777552"><span id="translatedtitle">Lymphatic Filariasis Transmission <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Map of India, Based on a Geo-Environmental <span class="hlt">Risk</span> <span class="hlt">Model</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Sabesan, Shanmugavelu; Raju, Konuganti Hari Kishan; Srivastava, Pradeep Kumar; Jambulingam, Purushothaman</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>Abstract The strategy adopted by a global program to interrupt transmission of lymphatic filariasis (LF) is mass drug administration (MDA) using chemotherapy. India also followed this strategy by introducing MDA in the historically known endemic areas. All other areas, which remained unsurveyed, were presumed to be nonendemic and left without any intervention. Therefore, identification of LF transmission <span class="hlt">risk</span> areas in the entire country has become essential so that they can be targeted for intervention. A geo-environmental <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">model</span> (GERM) developed earlier was used to create a filariasis transmission <span class="hlt">risk</span> map for India. In this <span class="hlt">model</span>, a Standardized Filariasis Transmission <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Index (SFTRI, based on geo-environmental <span class="hlt">risk</span> variables) was used as a predictor of transmission <span class="hlt">risk</span>. The relationship between SFTRI and endemicity (historically known) of an area was quantified by logistic regression analysis. The quantified relationship was validated by assessing the filarial antigenemia status of children living in the unsurveyed areas through a ground truth study. A significant positive relationship was observed between SFTRI and the endemicity of an area. Overall, the <span class="hlt">model</span> prediction of filarial endemic status of districts was found to be correct in 92.8% of the total observations. Thus, among the 190 districts hitherto unsurveyed, as many as 113 districts were predicted to be at <span class="hlt">risk</span>, and the remaining at no <span class="hlt">risk</span>. The GERM developed on geographic information system (GIS) platform is useful for LF spatial delimitation on a macrogeographic/regional scale. Furthermore, the <span class="hlt">risk</span> map developed will be useful for the national LF elimination program by identifying areas at <span class="hlt">risk</span> for intervention and for undertaking surveillance in no-<span class="hlt">risk</span> areas. PMID:23808973</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=49758&keyword=Franco&actType=&TIMSType=+&TIMSSubTypeID=&DEID=&epaNumber=&ntisID=&archiveStatus=Both&ombCat=Any&dateBeginCreated=&dateEndCreated=&dateBeginPublishedPresented=&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&dateBeginCompleted=&dateEndCompleted=&personID=&role=Any&journalID=&publisherID=&sortBy=revisionDate&count=50&CFID=75956065&CFTOKEN=64926654','EPA-EIMS'); return false;" href="http://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=49758&keyword=Franco&actType=&TIMSType=+&TIMSSubTypeID=&DEID=&epaNumber=&ntisID=&archiveStatus=Both&ombCat=Any&dateBeginCreated=&dateEndCreated=&dateBeginPublishedPresented=&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&dateBeginCompleted=&dateEndCompleted=&personID=&role=Any&journalID=&publisherID=&sortBy=revisionDate&count=50&CFID=75956065&CFTOKEN=64926654"><span id="translatedtitle">FREQUENCY ANALYSIS OF PESTICIDE CONCENTRATIONS FOR <span class="hlt">RISK</span> ASSESSMENT (FRANCO <span class="hlt">MODEL</span>)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://oaspub.epa.gov/eims/query.page">EPA Science Inventory</a></p> <p></p> <p></p> <p>This report describes a method for statistically characterizing the occurrence and duration of pesticide concentrations in surface waters receiving runoff from agricultural lands. The characterization bridges the gap between simulated instream pesticide <span class="hlt">modeling</span> and the <span class="hlt">risk</span> asse...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.epi.grants.cancer.gov/cancer_risk_prediction/submission-form.html','NCI'); return false;" href="http://www.epi.grants.cancer.gov/cancer_risk_prediction/submission-form.html"><span id="translatedtitle">Submission Form for Peer-Reviewed Cancer <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Prediction <span class="hlt">Models</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.cancer.gov">Cancer.gov</a></p> <p></p> <p></p> <p>If you have information about a peer-reviewd cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span> prediction <span class="hlt">model</span> that you would like to be considered for inclusion on this list, submit as much information as possible through the form on this page.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24433635','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24433635"><span id="translatedtitle">Predictive qualitative <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">model</span> of bovine rabies occurrence in Brazil.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Braga, Guilherme Basseto; Grisi-Filho, José Henrique Hildebrand; Leite, Bruno Meireles; de Sena, Elaine Fátima; Dias, Ricardo Augusto</p> <p>2014-03-01</p> <p>Bovine rabies remains endemic in Brazil and despite control efforts, the disease still spreads insidiously. The main vector is the hematophagous bat, Desmodus rotundus. The present work aimed to create a predictive qualitative <span class="hlt">model</span> of the occurrence of bovine rabies in each municipality in 25 of the 27 Brazilian States. The <span class="hlt">risk</span> of rabies transmission from bats to bovine was estimated using decision-tree <span class="hlt">models</span> of receptivity and vulnerability. Questionnaires, which covered a number of questions related to the surveillance of possible <span class="hlt">risk</span> factors, such as bovine rabies outbreaks in the previous year, the presence of bat roosts, bat rabies positivity and environmental changes, were sent to the local veterinary units of each State. The bovine density and geomorphologic features were obtained from national databases and geographic information systems. Of the 433 municipalities presenting bovine rabies outbreaks in 2010, 178 (41.1%) were classified by the <span class="hlt">model</span> as high <span class="hlt">risk</span>, 212 (49.0%) were classified as moderate <span class="hlt">risk</span>, 25 (5.8%) were classified as low <span class="hlt">risk</span>, whereas the <span class="hlt">risk</span> was undetermined in 18 municipalities (4.1%). An ROC curve was built to determine if the <span class="hlt">risk</span> evaluated by the <span class="hlt">model</span> could adequately discriminate between municipalities with and without rabies occurrence in future years. The <span class="hlt">risk</span> estimator for the year 2011 was classified as moderately accurate. In the future, these <span class="hlt">models</span> could allow the targeting of rabies control efforts, with the adoption of control measures directed to the higher <span class="hlt">risk</span> locations and the optimization of the field veterinary staff deployment throughout the country. Additionally, efforts must be made to encourage continuous surveillance of <span class="hlt">risk</span> factors. PMID:24433635</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2010AGUFM.H24F..01S&link_type=ABSTRACT','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2010AGUFM.H24F..01S&link_type=ABSTRACT"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Absolute</span> Humidity and the Seasonality of Influenza (Invited)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Shaman, J. L.; Pitzer, V.; Viboud, C.; Grenfell, B.; Goldstein, E.; Lipsitch, M.</p> <p>2010-12-01</p> <p>Much of the observed wintertime increase of mortality in temperate regions is attributed to seasonal influenza. A recent re-analysis of laboratory experiments indicates that <span class="hlt">absolute</span> humidity strongly modulates the airborne survival and transmission of the influenza virus. Here we show that the onset of increased wintertime influenza-related mortality in the United States is associated with anomalously low <span class="hlt">absolute</span> humidity levels during the prior weeks. We then use an epidemiological <span class="hlt">model</span>, in which observed <span class="hlt">absolute</span> humidity conditions temper influenza transmission rates, to successfully simulate the seasonal cycle of observed influenza-related mortality. The <span class="hlt">model</span> results indicate that direct modulation of influenza transmissibility by <span class="hlt">absolute</span> humidity alone is sufficient to produce this observed seasonality. These findings provide epidemiological support for the hypothesis that <span class="hlt">absolute</span> humidity drives seasonal variations of influenza transmission in temperate regions. In addition, we show that variations of the basic and effective reproductive numbers for influenza, caused by seasonal changes in <span class="hlt">absolute</span> humidity, are consistent with the general timing of pandemic influenza outbreaks observed for 2009 A/H1N1 in temperate regions. Indeed, <span class="hlt">absolute</span> humidity conditions correctly identify the region of the United States vulnerable to a third, wintertime wave of pandemic influenza. These findings suggest that the timing of pandemic influenza outbreaks is controlled by a combination of <span class="hlt">absolute</span> humidity conditions, levels of susceptibility and changes in population mixing and contact rates.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/5984615','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/5984615"><span id="translatedtitle">Hazard Ranking System and toxicological <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment <span class="hlt">models</span> yield different results</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Dehghani, T.; Sells, G. . CER-CLA Site Assessment Div.)</p> <p>1993-09-01</p> <p>A major goal of the Superfund Site Assessment program is identifying hazardous waste sites that pose unacceptable <span class="hlt">risks</span> to human health and the environment. To accomplish this, EPA developed the Hazard Ranking System (HRS), a mathematical <span class="hlt">model</span> used to assess the relative <span class="hlt">risks</span> associated with actual or potential releases of hazardous wastes from a site. HRS is a scoring system based on factors grouped into three categories--likelihood of release, waste characteristics and targets. Values for the factor categories are multiplied, then normalized to 100 points to obtain a pathway score. Four pathways--groundwater, surface water, air migration and soil exposure--are evaluated and scored. The final HRS score is obtained by combining pathway scores using a root-mean-square method. HRS is intended to be a screening tool for measuring relative, rather than <span class="hlt">absolute</span>, <span class="hlt">risk</span>. The Superfund site assessment program usually requires at least two studies of a potential hazardous waste site before it is proposed for listing on the NPL. The initial study, or preliminary assessment (PA), is a limited-scope evaluation based on available historical information and data that can be gathered readily during a site reconnaissance.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016PhyA..441..173G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016PhyA..441..173G"><span id="translatedtitle">Value-at-<span class="hlt">Risk</span> forecasts by a spatiotemporal <span class="hlt">model</span> in Chinese stock market</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Gong, Pu; Weng, Yingliang</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>This paper generalizes a recently proposed spatial autoregressive <span class="hlt">model</span> and introduces a spatiotemporal <span class="hlt">model</span> for forecasting stock returns. We support the view that stock returns are affected not only by the <span class="hlt">absolute</span> values of factors such as firm size, book-to-market ratio and momentum but also by the relative values of factors like trading volume ranking and market capitalization ranking in each period. This article studies a new method for constructing stocks' reference groups; the method is called quartile method. Applying the method empirically to the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index, we compare the daily volatility forecasting performance and the out-of-sample forecasting performance of Value-at-<span class="hlt">Risk</span> (VaR) estimated by different <span class="hlt">models</span>. The empirical results show that the spatiotemporal <span class="hlt">model</span> performs surprisingly well in terms of capturing spatial dependences among individual stocks, and it produces more accurate VaR forecasts than the other three <span class="hlt">models</span> introduced in the previous literature. Moreover, the findings indicate that both allowing for serial correlation in the disturbances and using time-varying spatial weight matrices can greatly improve the predictive accuracy of a spatial autoregressive <span class="hlt">model</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1999AdSpR..23..231S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1999AdSpR..23..231S"><span id="translatedtitle">Novel <span class="hlt">modelling</span> solutions for debris <span class="hlt">risk</span> reduction</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Stokes, P. H.; Walker, R.; Wilkinson, J. E.; Swinerd, G. G.</p> <p>1999-01-01</p> <p>The Defence Evaluation & Research Agency (DERA) has a long association with the field of space debris research. Effort has focused on the development of software tools (IDES and SDS) to <span class="hlt">model</span> the debris environment and its long and short term evolution. These <span class="hlt">models</span> are now well established and recognised for their distinct capabilities. More recently, DERA has begun developing a new software tool called SHIELD. This is an innovative concurrent engineering <span class="hlt">model</span> designed to assist engineers in identifying the most cost-effective debris protection strategy for a satellite. The <span class="hlt">model</span> uses a novel survivability metric technique in conjunction with a genetic algorithm to search for the optimum choice and location of bumper shields, and the optimum arrangement of critical satellite components. This paper briefly summarises the unique aspects of the environment <span class="hlt">models</span> and recent results, before describing the new SHIELD <span class="hlt">model</span> in some detail.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/971641','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/971641"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Modeling</span> Exposure to Persistent Chemicals in Hazard and <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Assessment</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Cowan-Ellsberry, Christina E.; McLachlan, Michael S.; Arnot, Jon A.; MacLeod, Matthew; McKone, Thomas E.; Wania, Frank</p> <p>2008-11-01</p> <p>Fate and exposure <span class="hlt">modeling</span> has not thus far been explicitly used in the <span class="hlt">risk</span> profile documents prepared to evaluate significant adverse effect of candidate chemicals for either the Stockholm Convention or the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution. However, we believe <span class="hlt">models</span> have considerable potential to improve the <span class="hlt">risk</span> profiles. Fate and exposure <span class="hlt">models</span> are already used routinely in other similar regulatory applications to inform decisions, and they have been instrumental in building our current understanding of the fate of POP and PBT chemicals in the environment. The goal of this paper is to motivate the use of fate and exposure <span class="hlt">models</span> in preparing <span class="hlt">risk</span> profiles in the POP assessment procedure by providing strategies for incorporating and using <span class="hlt">models</span>. The ways that fate and exposure <span class="hlt">models</span> can be used to improve and inform the development of <span class="hlt">risk</span> profiles include: (1) Benchmarking the ratio of exposure and emissions of candidate chemicals to the same ratio for known POPs, thereby opening the possibility of combining this ratio with the relative emissions and relative toxicity to arrive at a measure of relative <span class="hlt">risk</span>. (2) Directly estimating the exposure of the environment, biota and humans to provide information to complement measurements, or where measurements are not available or are limited. (3) To identify the key processes and chemical and/or environmental parameters that determine the exposure; thereby allowing the effective prioritization of research or measurements to improve the <span class="hlt">risk</span> profile. (4) Predicting future time trends including how quickly exposure levels in remote areas would respond to reductions in emissions. Currently there is no standardized consensus <span class="hlt">model</span> for use in the <span class="hlt">risk</span> profile context. Therefore, to choose the appropriate <span class="hlt">model</span> the <span class="hlt">risk</span> profile developer must evaluate how appropriate an existing <span class="hlt">model</span> is for a specific setting and whether the assumptions and input data are relevant in the context of the application</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19552503','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19552503"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Modeling</span> exposure to persistent chemicals in hazard and <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Cowan-Ellsberry, Christina E; McLachlan, Michael S; Arnot, Jon A; Macleod, Matthew; McKone, Thomas E; Wania, Frank</p> <p>2009-10-01</p> <p>Fate and exposure <span class="hlt">modeling</span> has not, thus far, been explicitly used in the <span class="hlt">risk</span> profile documents prepared for evaluating the significant adverse effect of candidate chemicals for either the Stockholm Convention or the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution. However, we believe <span class="hlt">models</span> have considerable potential to improve the <span class="hlt">risk</span> profiles. Fate and exposure <span class="hlt">models</span> are already used routinely in other similar regulatory applications to inform decisions, and they have been instrumental in building our current understanding of the fate of persistent organic pollutants (POP) and persistent, bioaccumulative, and toxic (PBT) chemicals in the environment. The goal of this publication is to motivate the use of fate and exposure <span class="hlt">models</span> in preparing <span class="hlt">risk</span> profiles in the POP assessment procedure by providing strategies for incorporating and using <span class="hlt">models</span>. The ways that fate and exposure <span class="hlt">models</span> can be used to improve and inform the development of <span class="hlt">risk</span> profiles include 1) benchmarking the ratio of exposure and emissions of candidate chemicals to the same ratio for known POPs, thereby opening the possibility of combining this ratio with the relative emissions and relative toxicity to arrive at a measure of relative <span class="hlt">risk</span>; 2) directly estimating the exposure of the environment, biota, and humans to provide information to complement measurements or where measurements are not available or are limited; 3) to identify the key processes and chemical or environmental parameters that determine the exposure, thereby allowing the effective prioritization of research or measurements to improve the <span class="hlt">risk</span> profile; and 4) forecasting future time trends, including how quickly exposure levels in remote areas would respond to reductions in emissions. Currently there is no standardized consensus <span class="hlt">model</span> for use in the <span class="hlt">risk</span> profile context. Therefore, to choose the appropriate <span class="hlt">model</span> the <span class="hlt">risk</span> profile developer must evaluate how appropriate an existing <span class="hlt">model</span> is for a specific setting and</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li class="active"><span>13</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_13 --> <div id="page_14" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li class="active"><span>14</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="261"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3506420','PMC'); return false;" href="http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3506420"><span id="translatedtitle">An Integrated <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Management <span class="hlt">Model</span> for Source Water Protection Areas</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Chiueh, Pei-Te; Shang, Wei-Ting; Lo, Shang-Lien</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>Watersheds are recognized as the most effective management unit for the protection of water resources. For surface water supplies that use water from upstream watersheds, evaluating threats to water quality and implementing a watershed management plan are crucial for the maintenance of drinking water safe for humans. The aim of this article is to establish a <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment <span class="hlt">model</span> that provides basic information for identifying critical pollutants and areas at high <span class="hlt">risk</span> for degraded water quality. In this study, a quantitative <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">model</span> that uses hazard quotients for each water quality parameter was combined with a qualitative <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">model</span> that uses the relative <span class="hlt">risk</span> level of potential pollution events in order to characterize the current condition and potential <span class="hlt">risk</span> of watersheds providing drinking water. In a case study of Taipei Source Water Area in northern Taiwan, total coliforms and total phosphorus were the top two pollutants of concern. Intensive tea-growing and recreational activities around the riparian zone may contribute the greatest pollution to the watershed. Our <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment tool may be enhanced by developing, recording, and updating information on pollution sources in the water supply watersheds. Moreover, management authorities could use the resultant information to create watershed <span class="hlt">risk</span> management plans. PMID:23202770</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFMNH23B..06H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFMNH23B..06H"><span id="translatedtitle">A Hybrid Tsunami <span class="hlt">Risk</span> <span class="hlt">Model</span> for Japan</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Haseemkunju, A. V.; Smith, D. F.; Khater, M.; Khemici, O.; Betov, B.; Scott, J.</p> <p>2014-12-01</p> <p>Around the margins of the Pacific Ocean, denser oceanic plates slipping under continental plates cause subduction earthquakes generating large tsunami waves. The subducting Pacific and Philippine Sea plates create damaging interplate earthquakes followed by huge tsunami waves. It was a rupture of the Japan Trench subduction zone (JTSZ) and the resultant M9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake that caused the unprecedented tsunami along the Pacific coast of Japan on March 11, 2011. EQECAT's Japan Earthquake <span class="hlt">model</span> is a fully probabilistic <span class="hlt">model</span> which includes a seismo-tectonic <span class="hlt">model</span> describing the geometries, magnitudes, and frequencies of all potential earthquake events; a ground motion <span class="hlt">model</span>; and a tsunami <span class="hlt">model</span>. Within the much larger set of all <span class="hlt">modeled</span> earthquake events, fault rupture parameters for about 24000 stochastic and 25 historical tsunamigenic earthquake events are defined to simulate tsunami footprints using the numerical tsunami <span class="hlt">model</span> COMCOT. A hybrid approach using COMCOT simulated tsunami waves is used to generate inundation footprints, including the impact of tides and flood defenses. <span class="hlt">Modeled</span> tsunami waves of major historical events are validated against observed data. <span class="hlt">Modeled</span> tsunami flood depths on 30 m grids together with tsunami vulnerability and financial <span class="hlt">models</span> are then used to estimate insured loss in Japan from the 2011 tsunami. The primary direct report of damage from the 2011 tsunami is in terms of the number of buildings damaged by municipality in the tsunami affected area. <span class="hlt">Modeled</span> loss in Japan from the 2011 tsunami is proportional to the number of buildings damaged. A 1000-year return period map of tsunami waves shows high hazard along the west coast of southern Honshu, on the Pacific coast of Shikoku, and on the east coast of Kyushu, primarily associated with major earthquake events on the Nankai Trough subduction zone (NTSZ). The highest tsunami hazard of more than 20m is seen on the Sanriku coast in northern Honshu, associated with the JTSZ.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.7768W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.7768W"><span id="translatedtitle">Usefulness and limitations of global flood <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">models</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Ward, Philip; Jongman, Brenden; Salamon, Peter; Simpson, Alanna; Bates, Paul; De Groeve, Tom; Muis, Sanne; Coughlan de Perez, Erin; Rudari, Roberto; Mark, Trigg; Winsemius, Hessel</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>Global flood <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">models</span> are now a reality. Initially, their development was driven by a demand from users for first-order global assessments to identify <span class="hlt">risk</span> hotspots. Relentless upward trends in flood damage over the last decade have enhanced interest in such assessments. The adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Reduction and the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage Associated with Climate Change Impacts have made these efforts even more essential. As a result, global flood <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">models</span> are being used more and more in practice, by an increasingly large number of practitioners and decision-makers. However, they clearly have their limits compared to local <span class="hlt">models</span>. To address these issues, a team of scientists and practitioners recently came together at the Global Flood Partnership meeting to critically assess the question 'What can('t) we do with global flood <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">models</span>?'. The results of this dialogue (Ward et al., 2013) will be presented, opening a discussion on similar broader initiatives at the science-policy interface in other natural hazards. In this contribution, examples are provided of successful applications of global flood <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">models</span> in practice (for example together with the World Bank, Red Cross, and UNISDR), and limitations and gaps between user 'wish-lists' and <span class="hlt">model</span> capabilities are discussed. Finally, a research agenda is presented for addressing these limitations and reducing the gaps. Ward et al., 2015. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2742</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/889293','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/889293"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Modeling</span> the <span class="hlt">Risks</span> of Geothermal Development</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Golabi, K.; Nair, K.; Rothstein, S.; Sioshansi, F.</p> <p>1980-12-16</p> <p>Geothermal energy has emerged as a promising energy source in recent years and has received serious attention from developers and potential users. Despite the advantages of this resource, such as potential cost competitiveness, reliability, public acceptance, etc., the commercial development and use of geothermal energy has been slow. Impediments to the development of this resource include technical, financial, environmental and regulatory uncertainties. Since geothermal power is unique in that the generation facility is tied to a single fuel at a single site, these uncertainties are of particular concern to utility companies. The areas of uncertainty and potential <span class="hlt">risks</span> are well known. This paper presents a method for quantifying the relevant uncertainties and a framework for aggregating the <span class="hlt">risks</span> through the use of submodels. The objective submodels can be combined with subjective probabilities (when sufficient data is not available) to yield a probability distribution over a single criterion (levelized busbar cost) that can be used to compare the desirability of geothermal power development with respect to other alternatives.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=18602&keyword=Description+AND+language&actType=&TIMSType=+&TIMSSubTypeID=&DEID=&epaNumber=&ntisID=&archiveStatus=Both&ombCat=Any&dateBeginCreated=&dateEndCreated=&dateBeginPublishedPresented=&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&dateBeginCompleted=&dateEndCompleted=&personID=&role=Any&journalID=&publisherID=&sortBy=revisionDate&count=50&CFID=76715376&CFTOKEN=53954407','EPA-EIMS'); return false;" href="http://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=18602&keyword=Description+AND+language&actType=&TIMSType=+&TIMSSubTypeID=&DEID=&epaNumber=&ntisID=&archiveStatus=Both&ombCat=Any&dateBeginCreated=&dateEndCreated=&dateBeginPublishedPresented=&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&dateBeginCompleted=&dateEndCompleted=&personID=&role=Any&journalID=&publisherID=&sortBy=revisionDate&count=50&CFID=76715376&CFTOKEN=53954407"><span id="translatedtitle">ARSENIC <span class="hlt">MODEL</span> DEVELOPMENT FOR IMPROVED <span class="hlt">RISK</span> ASSESSMENT</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://oaspub.epa.gov/eims/query.page">EPA Science Inventory</a></p> <p></p> <p></p> <p>This project integrates research on the kinetic behavior and metabolism of arsenic at both the cellular and whole organism levels using a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) <span class="hlt">modeling</span> approach. The ultimate goal is development of a robust human PBPK <span class="hlt">model</span> for arsenic met...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=193583&keyword=linux&actType=&TIMSType=+&TIMSSubTypeID=&DEID=&epaNumber=&ntisID=&archiveStatus=Both&ombCat=Any&dateBeginCreated=&dateEndCreated=&dateBeginPublishedPresented=&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&dateBeginCompleted=&dateEndCompleted=&personID=&role=Any&journalID=&publisherID=&sortBy=revisionDate&count=50&CFID=64247648&CFTOKEN=86095836','EPA-EIMS'); return false;" href="http://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=193583&keyword=linux&actType=&TIMSType=+&TIMSSubTypeID=&DEID=&epaNumber=&ntisID=&archiveStatus=Both&ombCat=Any&dateBeginCreated=&dateEndCreated=&dateBeginPublishedPresented=&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&dateBeginCompleted=&dateEndCompleted=&personID=&role=Any&journalID=&publisherID=&sortBy=revisionDate&count=50&CFID=64247648&CFTOKEN=86095836"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Modeling</span> Environment for Total <span class="hlt">Risk</span>-2E</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://oaspub.epa.gov/eims/query.page">EPA Science Inventory</a></p> <p></p> <p></p> <p>MENTOR-2E uses an integrated, mechanistically consistent source-to-dose-to-response <span class="hlt">modeling</span> framework to quantify inhalation exposure and doses resulting from emergency events. It is an implementation of the MENTOR system that is focused towards <span class="hlt">modeling</span> of the impacts of rele...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20090035820','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20090035820"><span id="translatedtitle">A Corrosion <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Assessment <span class="hlt">Model</span> for Underground Piping</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Datta, Koushik; Fraser, Douglas R.</p> <p>2009-01-01</p> <p>The Pressure Systems Manager at NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) has embarked on a project to collect data and develop <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment <span class="hlt">models</span> to support <span class="hlt">risk</span>-informed decision making regarding future inspections of underground pipes at ARC. This paper shows progress in one area of this project - a corrosion <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment <span class="hlt">model</span> for the underground high-pressure air distribution piping system at ARC. It consists of a Corrosion <span class="hlt">Model</span> of pipe-segments, a Pipe Wrap Protection <span class="hlt">Model</span>; and a Pipe Stress <span class="hlt">Model</span> for a pipe segment. A Monte Carlo simulation of the combined <span class="hlt">models</span> provides a distribution of the failure probabilities. Sensitivity study results show that the <span class="hlt">model</span> uncertainty, or lack of knowledge, is the dominant contributor to the calculated unreliability of the underground piping system. As a result, the Pressure Systems Manager may consider investing resources specifically focused on reducing these uncertainties. Future work includes completing the data collection effort for the existing ground based pressure systems and applying the <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">models</span> to <span class="hlt">risk</span>-based inspection strategies of the underground pipes at ARC.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27332383','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27332383"><span id="translatedtitle">A <span class="hlt">Model</span> for <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Assessment in Health Care.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Prijatelj, Vesna; Rajkovič, Vladislav; Šušteršič, Olga</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>The purpose of our research is to reduce <span class="hlt">risks</span> and hence prevent errors in the health care process. The aim is to design an organizational information <span class="hlt">model</span> using error prevention methods for <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment in a clinical setting. The <span class="hlt">model</span> is based on selected indicators of quality nursing care, resulting from the world-known theoretical and practical <span class="hlt">models</span> combined with experience in the Slovenian health care. The proposed organizational information <span class="hlt">model</span> and software solution has a significant impact on the professional attention, communication and information, critical thinking, experience and knowledge. PMID:27332383</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3485693','PMC'); return false;" href="http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3485693"><span id="translatedtitle">Lung cancer in never smokers Epidemiology and <span class="hlt">risk</span> prediction <span class="hlt">models</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>McCarthy, William J.; Meza, Rafael; Jeon, Jihyoun; Moolgavkar, Suresh</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>In this chapter we review the epidemiology of lung cancer incidence and mortality among never smokers/ nonsmokers and describe the never smoker lung cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">models</span> used by CISNET <span class="hlt">modelers</span>. Our review focuses on those influences likely to have measurable population impact on never smoker <span class="hlt">risk</span>, such as secondhand smoke, even though the individual-level impact may be small. Occupational exposures may also contribute importantly to the population attributable <span class="hlt">risk</span> of lung cancer. We examine the following <span class="hlt">risk</span> factors in this chapter: age, environmental tobacco smoke, cooking fumes, ionizing radiation including radon gas, inherited genetic susceptibility, selected occupational exposures, preexisting lung disease, and oncogenic viruses. We also compare the prevalence of never smokers between the three CISNET smoking scenarios and present the corresponding lung cancer mortality estimates among never smokers as predicted by a typical CISNET <span class="hlt">model</span>. PMID:22882894</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19720027445&hterms=isolated+neutral&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D60%26Ntt%3Disolated%2Bneutral','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19720027445&hterms=isolated+neutral&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D60%26Ntt%3Disolated%2Bneutral"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Absolute</span> transition probabilities of phosphorus.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Miller, M. H.; Roig, R. A.; Bengtson, R. D.</p> <p>1971-01-01</p> <p>Use of a gas-driven shock tube to measure the <span class="hlt">absolute</span> strengths of 21 P I lines and 126 P II lines (from 3300 to 6900 A). Accuracy for prominent, isolated neutral and ionic lines is estimated to be 28 to 40% and 18 to 30%, respectively. The data and the corresponding theoretical predictions are examined for conformity with the sum rules.-</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMNH13D1954S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMNH13D1954S"><span id="translatedtitle">The Global Earthquake <span class="hlt">Model</span> and Disaster <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Reduction</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Smolka, A. J.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>Advanced, reliable and transparent tools and data to assess earthquake <span class="hlt">risk</span> are inaccessible to most, especially in less developed regions of the world while few, if any, globally accepted standards currently allow a meaningful comparison of <span class="hlt">risk</span> between places. The Global Earthquake <span class="hlt">Model</span> (GEM) is a collaborative effort that aims to provide <span class="hlt">models</span>, datasets and state-of-the-art tools for transparent assessment of earthquake hazard and <span class="hlt">risk</span>. As part of this goal, GEM and its global network of collaborators have developed the OpenQuake engine (an open-source software for hazard and <span class="hlt">risk</span> calculations), the OpenQuake platform (a web-based portal making GEM's resources and datasets freely available to all potential users), and a suite of tools to support <span class="hlt">modelers</span> and other experts in the development of hazard, exposure and vulnerability <span class="hlt">models</span>. These resources are being used extensively across the world in hazard and <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment, from individual practitioners to local and national institutions, and in regional projects to inform disaster <span class="hlt">risk</span> reduction. Practical examples for how GEM is bridging the gap between science and disaster <span class="hlt">risk</span> reduction are: - Several countries including Switzerland, Turkey, Italy, Ecuador, Papua-New Guinea and Taiwan (with more to follow) are computing national seismic hazard using the OpenQuake-engine. In some cases these results are used for the definition of actions in building codes. - Technical support, tools and data for the development of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">models</span> for regional projects in South America and Sub-Saharan Africa. - Going beyond physical <span class="hlt">risk</span>, GEM's scorecard approach evaluates local resilience by bringing together neighborhood/community leaders and the <span class="hlt">risk</span> reduction community as a basis for designing <span class="hlt">risk</span> reduction programs at various levels of geography. Actual case studies are Lalitpur in the Kathmandu Valley in Nepal and Quito/Ecuador. In agreement with GEM's collaborative approach, all</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008PhyA..387.1225K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008PhyA..387.1225K"><span id="translatedtitle">Application of the Beck <span class="hlt">model</span> to stock markets: Value-at-<span class="hlt">Risk</span> and portfolio <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kozaki, M.; Sato, A.-H.</p> <p>2008-02-01</p> <p>We apply the Beck <span class="hlt">model</span>, developed for turbulent systems that exhibit scaling properties, to stock markets. Our study reveals that the Beck <span class="hlt">model</span> elucidates the properties of stock market returns and is applicable to practical use such as the Value-at-<span class="hlt">Risk</span> estimation and the portfolio analysis. We perform empirical analysis with daily/intraday data of the S&P500 index return and find that the volatility fluctuation of real markets is well-consistent with the assumptions of the Beck <span class="hlt">model</span>: The volatility fluctuates at a much larger time scale than the return itself and the inverse of variance, or “inverse temperature”, β obeys Γ-distribution. As predicted by the Beck <span class="hlt">model</span>, the distribution of returns is well-fitted by q-Gaussian distribution of Tsallis statistics. The evaluation method of Value-at-<span class="hlt">Risk</span> (VaR), one of the most significant indicators in <span class="hlt">risk</span> management, is studied for q-Gaussian distribution. Our proposed method enables the VaR evaluation in consideration of tail <span class="hlt">risk</span>, which is underestimated by the variance-covariance method. A framework of portfolio <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment under the existence of tail <span class="hlt">risk</span> is considered. We propose a multi-asset <span class="hlt">model</span> with a single volatility fluctuation shared by all assets, named the single β <span class="hlt">model</span>, and empirically examine the agreement between the <span class="hlt">model</span> and an imaginary portfolio with Dow Jones indices. It turns out that the single β <span class="hlt">model</span> gives good approximation to portfolios composed of the assets with non-Gaussian and correlated returns.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/10191','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/10191"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Modeling</span> Manufacturing Processes to Mitigate Technological <span class="hlt">Risk</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Allgood, G.O.; Manges, W.W.</p> <p>1999-10-24</p> <p>An economic <span class="hlt">model</span> is a tool for determining the justifiable cost of new sensors and subsystems with respect to value and operation. This process balances the R and D costs against the expense of maintaining current operations and allows for a method to calculate economic indices of performance that can be used as control points in deciding whether to continue development or suspend actions. The <span class="hlt">model</span> can also be used as an integral part of an overall control loop utilizing real-time process data from the sensor groups to make production decisions (stop production and repair machine, continue and warn of anticipated problems, queue for repairs, etc.). This <span class="hlt">model</span> has been successfully used and deployed in the CAFE Project. The economic <span class="hlt">model</span> was one of seven (see Fig. 1) elements critical in developing an investment strategy. It has been successfully used in guiding the R and D activities on the CAFE Project, suspending activities on three new sensor technologies, and continuing development o f two others. The <span class="hlt">model</span> has also been used to justify the development of a new prognostic approach for diagnosing machine health using COTS equipment and a new algorithmic approach. maintaining current operations and allows for a method to calculate economic indices of performance that can be used as control points in deciding whether to continue development or suspend actions. The <span class="hlt">model</span> can also be used as an integral part of an overall control loop utilizing real-time process data from the sensor groups to make production decisions (stop production and repair machine, continue and warn of anticipated problems, queue for repairs, etc.).</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22088928','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22088928"><span id="translatedtitle">Injury prevention and <span class="hlt">risk</span> communication: a mental <span class="hlt">models</span> approach.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Austin, Laurel C; Fischhoff, Baruch</p> <p>2012-04-01</p> <p>Individuals' decisions and behaviour can play a critical role in determining both the probability and severity of injury. Behavioural decision research studies peoples' decision-making processes in terms comparable to scientific <span class="hlt">models</span> of optimal choices, providing a basis for focusing interventions on the most critical opportunities to reduce <span class="hlt">risks</span>. That research often seeks to identify the 'mental <span class="hlt">models</span>' that underlie individuals' interpretations of their circumstances and the outcomes of possible actions. In the context of injury prevention, a mental <span class="hlt">models</span> approach would ask why people fail to see <span class="hlt">risks</span>, do not make use of available protective interventions or misjudge the effectiveness of protective measures. If these misunderstandings can be reduced through context-appropriate <span class="hlt">risk</span> communications, then their improved mental <span class="hlt">models</span> may help people to engage more effectively in behaviours that they judge to be in their own best interest. If that proves impossible, then people may need specific instructions, not trusting to intuition or even paternalistic protection against situations that they cannot sufficiently control. The method entails working with domain specialists to elicit and create an expert <span class="hlt">model</span> of the <span class="hlt">risk</span> situation, interviewing lay people to elicit their comparable mental <span class="hlt">models</span>, and developing and evaluating communication interventions designed to close the gaps between lay people and experts. This paper reviews the theory and method behind this research stream and uses examples to discuss how the approach can be used to develop scientifically validated context-sensitive injury <span class="hlt">risk</span> communications. PMID:22088928</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011BSRSL..80..694M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011BSRSL..80..694M"><span id="translatedtitle">Constraining the Properties of the Eta Carinae System via 3-D SPH <span class="hlt">Models</span> of Space-Based Observations: The <span class="hlt">Absolute</span> Orientation of the Binary Orbit</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Madura, Thomas I.; Gull, Theodore R.; Owocki, Stanley P.; Okazaki, Atsuo T.; Russell, Christopher M. P.</p> <p>2011-01-01</p> <p>The extremely massive (> 90 M_⊙) and luminous ( = 5 × 10^{6} L_⊙) star Eta Carinae, with its spectacular bipolar ``Homunculus'' nebula, comprises one of the most remarkable and intensely observed stellar systems in the Galaxy. However, many of its underlying physical parameters remain unknown. Multiwavelength variations observed to occur every 5.54 years are interpreted as being due to the collision of a massive wind from the primary star with the fast, less dense wind of a hot companion star in a highly elliptical (e ˜ 0.9) orbit. Using three-dimensional (3-D) Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) simulations of the binary wind-wind collision, together with radiative transfer codes, we compute synthetic spectral images of [Fe III] emission line structures and compare them to existing Hubble Space Telescope/Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph (HST/STIS) observations. We are thus able, for the first time, to tightly constrain the <span class="hlt">absolute</span> orientation of the binary orbit on the sky. An orbit with an inclination of i ˜ 40°, an argument of periapsis ω ˜ 255°, and a projected orbital axis with a position angle of ˜ 312° east of north provides the best fit to the observations, implying that the orbital axis is closely aligned in 3-D space with the Homunculus symmetry axis, and that the companion star orbits clockwise on the sky relative to the primary.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20110023552','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20110023552"><span id="translatedtitle">Constraining the Properties of the Eta Carinae System via 3-D SPH <span class="hlt">Models</span> of Space-Based Observations: The <span class="hlt">Absolute</span> Orientation of the Binary Orbit</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Madura, Thomas I.; Gull, Theodore R.; Owocki, Stanley P.; Okazaki, Atsuo T.; Russell, Christopher M. P.</p> <p>2011-01-01</p> <p>The extremely massive (> 90 Stellar Mass) and luminous (= 5 x 10(exp 6) Stellar Luminosity) star Eta Carinae, with its spectacular bipolar "Homunculus" nebula, comprises one of the most remarkable and intensely observed stellar systems in the Galaxy. However, many of its underlying physical parameters remain unknown. Multiwavelength variations observed to occur every 5.54 years are interpreted as being due to the collision of a massive wind from the primary star with the fast, less dense wind of a hot companion star in a highly elliptical (e approx. 0.9) orbit. Using three-dimensional (3-D) Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) simulations of the binary wind-wind collision, together with radiative transfer codes, we compute synthetic spectral images of [Fe III] emission line structures and compare them to existing Hubble Space Telescope/Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph (HST/STIS) observations. We are thus able, for the first time, to tightly constrain the <span class="hlt">absolute</span> orientation of the binary orbit on the sky. An orbit with an inclination of approx. 40deg, an argument of periapsis omega approx. 255deg, and a projected orbital axis with a position angle of approx. 312deg east of north provides the best fit to the observations, implying that the orbital axis is closely aligned in 3-D space with the Homunculus symmetry axis, and that the companion star orbits clockwise on the sky relative to the primary.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20110007197','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20110007197"><span id="translatedtitle">Constraining the Properties of the Eta Carinae System via 3-D SPH <span class="hlt">Models</span> of Space-Based Observations: The <span class="hlt">Absolute</span> Orientation of the Binary Orbit</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Madura, Thomas I.; Gull, Theodore R.; Owocki, Stanley P.; Okazaki, Atsuo T.; Russell, Christopher M. P.</p> <p>2010-01-01</p> <p>The extremely massive (> 90 Solar Mass) and luminous (= 5 x 10(exp 6) Solar Luminosity) star Eta Carinae, with its spectacular bipolar "Homunculus" nebula, comprises one of the most remarkable and intensely observed stellar systems in the galaxy. However, many of its underlying physical parameters remain a mystery. Multiwavelength variations observed to occur every 5.54 years are interpreted as being due to the collision of a massive wind from the primary star with the fast, less dense wind of a hot companion star in a highly elliptical (e approx. 0.9) orbit. Using three-dimensional (3-D) Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) simulations of the binary wind-wind collision in Eta Car, together with radiative transfer codes, we compute synthetic spectral images of [Fe III] emission line structures and compare them to existing Hubble Space Telescope/Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph (HST/STIS) observations. We are thus able, for the first time, to constrain the <span class="hlt">absolute</span> orientation of the binary orbit on the sky. An orbit with an inclination of i approx. 40deg, an argument of periapsis omega approx. 255deg, and a projected orbital axis with a position angle of approx. 312deg east of north provides the best fit to the observations, implying that the orbital axis is closely aligned in 3-1) space with the Homunculus symmetry axis, and that the companion star orbits clockwise on the sky relative to the primary.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23163724','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23163724"><span id="translatedtitle">Improving default <span class="hlt">risk</span> prediction using Bayesian <span class="hlt">model</span> uncertainty techniques.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Kazemi, Reza; Mosleh, Ali</p> <p>2012-11-01</p> <p>Credit <span class="hlt">risk</span> is the potential exposure of a creditor to an obligor's failure or refusal to repay the debt in principal or interest. The potential of exposure is measured in terms of probability of default. Many <span class="hlt">models</span> have been developed to estimate credit <span class="hlt">risk</span>, with rating agencies dating back to the 19th century. They provide their assessment of probability of default and transition probabilities of various firms in their annual reports. Regulatory capital requirements for credit <span class="hlt">risk</span> outlined by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision have made it essential for banks and financial institutions to develop sophisticated <span class="hlt">models</span> in an attempt to measure credit <span class="hlt">risk</span> with higher accuracy. The Bayesian framework proposed in this article uses the techniques developed in physical sciences and engineering for dealing with <span class="hlt">model</span> uncertainty and expert accuracy to obtain improved estimates of credit <span class="hlt">risk</span> and associated uncertainties. The approach uses estimates from one or more rating agencies and incorporates their historical accuracy (past performance data) in estimating future default <span class="hlt">risk</span> and transition probabilities. Several examples demonstrate that the proposed methodology can assess default probability with accuracy exceeding the estimations of all the individual <span class="hlt">models</span>. Moreover, the methodology accounts for potentially significant departures from "nominal predictions" due to "upsetting events" such as the 2008 global banking crisis. PMID:23163724</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=75917&keyword=linux&actType=&TIMSType=+&TIMSSubTypeID=&DEID=&epaNumber=&ntisID=&archiveStatus=Both&ombCat=Any&dateBeginCreated=&dateEndCreated=&dateBeginPublishedPresented=&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&dateBeginCompleted=&dateEndCompleted=&personID=&role=Any&journalID=&publisherID=&sortBy=revisionDate&count=50&CFID=64247648&CFTOKEN=86095836','EPA-EIMS'); return false;" href="http://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=75917&keyword=linux&actType=&TIMSType=+&TIMSSubTypeID=&DEID=&epaNumber=&ntisID=&archiveStatus=Both&ombCat=Any&dateBeginCreated=&dateEndCreated=&dateBeginPublishedPresented=&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&dateBeginCompleted=&dateEndCompleted=&personID=&role=Any&journalID=&publisherID=&sortBy=revisionDate&count=50&CFID=64247648&CFTOKEN=86095836"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Modeling</span> Environment for Total <span class="hlt">Risk</span>-1A</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://oaspub.epa.gov/eims/query.page">EPA Science Inventory</a></p> <p></p> <p></p> <p>MENTOR-1A uses an integrated, mechanistically consistent source-to-dose <span class="hlt">modeling</span> framework to quantify inhalation exposure and dose for individuals and/or populations due to co-occurring air pollutants. It uses the "One Atmosphere" concept to characterize simultaneous exposures t...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=75918&keyword=food+AND+drive&actType=&TIMSType=+&TIMSSubTypeID=&DEID=&epaNumber=&ntisID=&archiveStatus=Both&ombCat=Any&dateBeginCreated=&dateEndCreated=&dateBeginPublishedPresented=&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&dateBeginCompleted=&dateEndCompleted=&personID=&role=Any&journalID=&publisherID=&sortBy=revisionDate&count=50&CFID=77086249&CFTOKEN=56669263','EPA-EIMS'); return false;" href="http://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=75918&keyword=food+AND+drive&actType=&TIMSType=+&TIMSSubTypeID=&DEID=&epaNumber=&ntisID=&archiveStatus=Both&ombCat=Any&dateBeginCreated=&dateEndCreated=&dateBeginPublishedPresented=&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&dateBeginCompleted=&dateEndCompleted=&personID=&role=Any&journalID=&publisherID=&sortBy=revisionDate&count=50&CFID=77086249&CFTOKEN=56669263"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Modeling</span> Environment for Total <span class="hlt">Risk</span>-4M</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://oaspub.epa.gov/eims/query.page">EPA Science Inventory</a></p> <p></p> <p></p> <p>MENTOR-4M uses an integrated, mechanistically consistent, source-to-dose <span class="hlt">modeling</span> framework to quantify simultaneous exposures and doses of individuals and populations to multiple contaminants. It is an implementation of the MENTOR system for exposures to Multiple contaminants fr...</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li class="active"><span>14</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_14 --> <div id="page_15" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li class="active"><span>15</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="281"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://eric.ed.gov/?q=current+AND+assets&pg=4&id=ED526762','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://eric.ed.gov/?q=current+AND+assets&pg=4&id=ED526762"><span id="translatedtitle">Empirical Analysis of Farm Credit <span class="hlt">Risk</span> under the Structure <span class="hlt">Model</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Yan, Yan</p> <p>2009-01-01</p> <p>The study measures farm credit <span class="hlt">risk</span> by using farm records collected by Farm Business Farm Management (FBFM) during the period 1995-2004. The study addresses the following questions: (1) whether farm's financial position is fully described by the structure <span class="hlt">model</span>, (2) what are the determinants of farm capital structure under the structure <span class="hlt">model</span>, (3)…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFMNH31A1530L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFMNH31A1530L"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Modeling</span> of Flood <span class="hlt">Risk</span> for the Continental United States</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Lohmann, D.; Li, S.; Katz, B.; Goteti, G.; Kaheil, Y. H.; Vojjala, R.</p> <p>2011-12-01</p> <p>The science of catastrophic <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">modeling</span> helps people to understand the physical and financial implications of natural catastrophes (hurricanes, flood, earthquakes, etc.), terrorism, and the <span class="hlt">risks</span> associated with changes in life expectancy. As such it depends on simulation techniques that integrate multiple disciplines such as meteorology, hydrology, structural engineering, statistics, computer science, financial engineering, actuarial science, and more in virtually every field of technology. In this talk we will explain the techniques and underlying assumptions of building the RMS US flood <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">model</span>. We especially will pay attention to correlation (spatial and temporal), simulation and uncertainty in each of the various components in the development process. Recent extreme floods (e.g. US Midwest flood 2008, US Northeast flood, 2010) have increased the concern of flood <span class="hlt">risk</span>. Consequently, there are growing needs to adequately assess the flood <span class="hlt">risk</span>. The RMS flood hazard <span class="hlt">model</span> is mainly comprised of three major components. (1) Stochastic precipitation simulation module based on a Monte-Carlo analogue technique, which is capable of producing correlated rainfall events for the continental US. (2) Rainfall-runoff and routing module. A semi-distributed rainfall-runoff <span class="hlt">model</span> was developed to properly assess the antecedent conditions, determine the saturation area and runoff. The runoff is further routed downstream along the rivers by a routing <span class="hlt">model</span>. Combined with the precipitation <span class="hlt">model</span>, it allows us to correlate the streamflow and hence flooding from different rivers, as well as low and high return-periods across the continental US. (3) Flood inundation module. It transforms the discharge (output from the flow routing) into water level, which is further combined with a two-dimensional off-floodplain inundation <span class="hlt">model</span> to produce comprehensive flood hazard map. The performance of the <span class="hlt">model</span> is demonstrated by comparing to the observation and published data. Output from</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20050156931','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20050156931"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Model</span> for Solar Proton <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Assessment</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Xapos, M. A.; Stauffer, C.; Gee, G. B.; Barth, J. L.; Stassinopoulos, E. G.; McGuire, R. E.</p> <p>2004-01-01</p> <p>A statistical <span class="hlt">model</span> for cumulative solar proton event fluences during space missions is presented that covers both the solar minimum and solar maximum phases of the solar cycle. It is based on data from the IMP and GOES series of satellites that is integrated together to allow the best features of each data set to be taken advantage of. This allows fluence-energy spectra to be extended out to energies of 327 MeV.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4206915','PMC'); return false;" href="http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4206915"><span id="translatedtitle">Parametric Estimation in a Recurrent Competing <span class="hlt">Risks</span> <span class="hlt">Model</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Peña, Edsel A.</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>A resource-efficient approach to making inferences about the distributional properties of the failure times in a competing <span class="hlt">risks</span> setting is presented. Efficiency is gained by observing recurrences of the competing <span class="hlt">risks</span> over a random monitoring period. The resulting <span class="hlt">model</span> is called the recurrent competing <span class="hlt">risks</span> <span class="hlt">model</span> (RCRM) and is coupled with two repair strategies whenever the system fails. Maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of the marginal distribution functions associated with each of the competing <span class="hlt">risks</span> and also of the system lifetime distribution function are presented. Estimators are derived under perfect and partial repair strategies. Consistency and asymptotic properties of the estimators are obtained. The estimation methods are applied to a data set of failures for cars under warranty. Simulation studies are used to ascertain the small sample properties and the efficiency gains of the resulting estimators. PMID:25346751</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AIPC.1738f0005E','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AIPC.1738f0005E"><span id="translatedtitle">Credibility analysis of <span class="hlt">risk</span> classes by generalized linear <span class="hlt">model</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Erdemir, Ovgucan Karadag; Sucu, Meral</p> <p>2016-06-01</p> <p>In this paper generalized linear <span class="hlt">model</span> (GLM) and credibility theory which are frequently used in nonlife insurance pricing are combined for reliability analysis. Using full credibility standard, GLM is associated with limited fluctuation credibility approach. Comparison criteria such as asymptotic variance and credibility probability are used to analyze the credibility of <span class="hlt">risk</span> classes. An application is performed by using one-year claim frequency data of a Turkish insurance company and results of credible <span class="hlt">risk</span> classes are interpreted.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2016ArMiS..61..293S&link_type=ABSTRACT','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2016ArMiS..61..293S&link_type=ABSTRACT"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Risk</span> Management <span class="hlt">Model</span> in Surface Exploitation of Mineral Deposits</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Stojanović, Cvjetko</p> <p>2016-06-01</p> <p><span class="hlt">Risk</span> management is an integrative part of all types of project management. One of the main tasks of pre-investment studies and other project documentation is the tendency to protect investment projects as much as possible against investment <span class="hlt">risks</span>. Therefore, the provision and regulation of <span class="hlt">risk</span> information ensure the identification of the probability of the emergence of adverse events, their forms, causes and consequences, and provides a timely measures of protection against <span class="hlt">risks</span>. This means that <span class="hlt">risk</span> management involves a set of management methods and techniques used to reduce the possibility of realizing the adverse events and consequences and thus increase the possibilities of achieving the planned results with minimal losses. Investment in mining projects are of capital importance because they are very complex projects, therefore being very risky, because of the influence of internal and external factors and limitations arising from the socio-economic environment. Due to the lack of a <span class="hlt">risk</span> management system, numerous organizations worldwide have suffered significant financial losses. Therefore, it is necessary for any organization to establish a <span class="hlt">risk</span> management system as a structural element of system management system as a whole. This paper presents an approach to a <span class="hlt">Risk</span> management <span class="hlt">model</span> in the project of opening a surface coal mine, developed based on studies of extensive scientific literature and personal experiences of the author, and which, with certain modifications, may find use for any investment project, both in the mining industry as well as in investment projects in other areas.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20100029545','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20100029545"><span id="translatedtitle">Sensitivity Analysis of Launch Vehicle Debris <span class="hlt">Risk</span> <span class="hlt">Model</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Gee, Ken; Lawrence, Scott L.</p> <p>2010-01-01</p> <p>As part of an analysis of the loss of crew <span class="hlt">risk</span> associated with an ascent abort system for a manned launch vehicle, a <span class="hlt">model</span> was developed to predict the impact <span class="hlt">risk</span> of the debris resulting from an explosion of the launch vehicle on the crew module. The <span class="hlt">model</span> consisted of a debris catalog describing the number, size and imparted velocity of each piece of debris, a method to compute the trajectories of the debris and a method to calculate the impact <span class="hlt">risk</span> given the abort trajectory of the crew module. The <span class="hlt">model</span> provided a point estimate of the strike probability as a function of the debris catalog, the time of abort and the delay time between the abort and destruction of the launch vehicle. A study was conducted to determine the sensitivity of the strike probability to the various <span class="hlt">model</span> input parameters and to develop a response surface <span class="hlt">model</span> for use in the sensitivity analysis of the overall ascent abort <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">model</span>. The results of the sensitivity analysis and the response surface <span class="hlt">model</span> are presented in this paper.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26277638','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26277638"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Modelling</span> microbial health <span class="hlt">risk</span> of wastewater reuse: A systems perspective.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Beaudequin, Denise; Harden, Fiona; Roiko, Anne; Stratton, Helen; Lemckert, Charles; Mengersen, Kerrie</p> <p>2015-11-01</p> <p>There is a widespread need for the use of quantitative microbial <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment (QMRA) to determine reclaimed water quality for specific uses, however neither faecal indicator levels nor pathogen concentrations alone are adequate for assessing exposure health <span class="hlt">risk</span>. The aim of this study was to build a conceptual <span class="hlt">model</span> representing factors contributing to the microbiological health <span class="hlt">risks</span> of reusing water treated in maturation ponds. This paper describes the development of an unparameterised <span class="hlt">model</span> that provides a visual representation of theoretical constructs and variables of interest. Information was collected from the peer-reviewed literature and through consultation with experts from regulatory authorities and academic disciplines. In this paper we explore how, considering microbial <span class="hlt">risk</span> as a modular system, following the QMRA framework enables incorporation of the many factors influencing human exposure and dose response, to better characterise likely human health impacts. By using and expanding upon the QMRA framework we deliver new insights into this important field of environmental exposures. We present a conceptual <span class="hlt">model</span> of health <span class="hlt">risk</span> of microbial exposure which can be used for maturation ponds and, more importantly, as a generic tool to assess health <span class="hlt">risk</span> in diverse wastewater reuse scenarios. PMID:26277638</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2016PhRvA..94a3808D&link_type=ABSTRACT','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2016PhRvA..94a3808D&link_type=ABSTRACT"><span id="translatedtitle">Optomechanics for <span class="hlt">absolute</span> rotation detection</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Davuluri, Sankar</p> <p>2016-07-01</p> <p>In this article, we present an application of optomechanical cavity for the <span class="hlt">absolute</span> rotation detection. The optomechanical cavity is arranged in a Michelson interferometer in such a way that the classical centrifugal force due to rotation changes the length of the optomechanical cavity. The change in the cavity length induces a shift in the frequency of the cavity mode. The phase shift corresponding to the frequency shift in the cavity mode is measured at the interferometer output to estimate the angular velocity of <span class="hlt">absolute</span> rotation. We derived an analytic expression to estimate the minimum detectable rotation rate in our scheme for a given optomechanical cavity. Temperature dependence of the rotation detection sensitivity is studied.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20100014902&hterms=asp&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D50%26Ntt%3Dasp','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20100014902&hterms=asp&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D50%26Ntt%3Dasp"><span id="translatedtitle">The <span class="hlt">Absolute</span> Spectrum Polarimeter (ASP)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Kogut, A. J.</p> <p>2010-01-01</p> <p>The <span class="hlt">Absolute</span> Spectrum Polarimeter (ASP) is an Explorer-class mission to map the <span class="hlt">absolute</span> intensity and linear polarization of the cosmic microwave background and diffuse astrophysical foregrounds over the full sky from 30 GHz to 5 THz. The principal science goal is the detection and characterization of linear polarization from an inflationary epoch in the early universe, with tensor-to-scalar ratio r much greater than 1O(raised to the power of { -3}) and Compton distortion y < 10 (raised to the power of{-6}). We describe the ASP instrument and mission architecture needed to detect the signature of an inflationary epoch in the early universe using only 4 semiconductor bolometers.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/1175308','DOE-PATENT-XML'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/1175308"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Absolute</span> calibration of optical flats</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/doepatents">DOEpatents</a></p> <p>Sommargren, Gary E.</p> <p>2005-04-05</p> <p>The invention uses the phase shifting diffraction interferometer (PSDI) to provide a true point-by-point measurement of <span class="hlt">absolute</span> flatness over the surface of optical flats. Beams exiting the fiber optics in a PSDI have perfect spherical wavefronts. The measurement beam is reflected from the optical flat and passed through an auxiliary optic to then be combined with the reference beam on a CCD. The combined beams include phase errors due to both the optic under test and the auxiliary optic. Standard phase extraction algorithms are used to calculate this combined phase error. The optical flat is then removed from the system and the measurement fiber is moved to recombine the two beams. The newly combined beams include only the phase errors due to the auxiliary optic. When the second phase measurement is subtracted from the first phase measurement, the <span class="hlt">absolute</span> phase error of the optical flat is obtained.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140017009','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140017009"><span id="translatedtitle">NASA Space Radiation Program Integrative <span class="hlt">Risk</span> <span class="hlt">Model</span> Toolkit</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Hu, Shaowen; Plante, Ianik; Ponomarev, Artem L.; Sandridge, Chris</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>NASA Space Radiation Program Element scientists have been actively involved in development of an integrative <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">models</span> toolkit that includes <span class="hlt">models</span> for acute radiation <span class="hlt">risk</span> and organ dose projection (ARRBOD), NASA space radiation cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span> projection (NSCR), hemocyte dose estimation (HemoDose), GCR event-based <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">model</span> code (GERMcode), and relativistic ion tracks (RITRACKS), NASA radiation track image (NASARTI), and the On-Line Tool for the Assessment of Radiation in Space (OLTARIS). This session will introduce the components of the <span class="hlt">risk</span> toolkit with opportunity for hands on demonstrations. The brief descriptions of each tools are: ARRBOD for Organ dose projection and acute radiation <span class="hlt">risk</span> calculation from exposure to solar particle event; NSCR for Projection of cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span> from exposure to space radiation; HemoDose for retrospective dose estimation by using multi-type blood cell counts; GERMcode for basic physical and biophysical properties for an ion beam, and biophysical and radiobiological properties for a beam transport to the target in the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory beam line; RITRACKS for simulation of heavy ion and delta-ray track structure, radiation chemistry, DNA structure and DNA damage at the molecular scale; NASARTI for <span class="hlt">modeling</span> of the effects of space radiation on human cells and tissue by incorporating a physical <span class="hlt">model</span> of tracks, cell nucleus, and DNA damage foci with image segmentation for the automated count; and OLTARIS, an integrated tool set utilizing HZETRN (High Charge and Energy Transport) intended to help scientists and engineers study the effects of space radiation on shielding materials, electronics, and biological systems.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4621379','PMC'); return false;" href="http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4621379"><span id="translatedtitle">Developing and validating a <span class="hlt">risk</span> prediction <span class="hlt">model</span> for acute care based on frailty syndromes</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Soong, J; Poots, A J; Scott, S; Donald, K; Bell, D</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Objectives Population ageing may result in increased comorbidity, functional dependence and poor quality of life. Mechanisms and pathophysiology underlying frailty have not been fully elucidated, thus <span class="hlt">absolute</span> consensus on an operational definition for frailty is lacking. Frailty scores in the acute medical care setting have poor predictive power for clinically relevant outcomes. We explore the utility of frailty syndromes (as recommended by national guidelines) as a <span class="hlt">risk</span> prediction <span class="hlt">model</span> for the elderly in the acute care setting. Setting English Secondary Care emergency admissions to National Health Service (NHS) acute providers. Participants There were N=2 099 252 patients over 65 years with emergency admission to NHS acute providers from 01/01/2012 to 31/12/2012 included in the analysis. Primary and secondary outcome measures Outcomes investigated include inpatient mortality, 30-day emergency readmission and institutionalisation. We used pseudorandom numbers to split patients into train (60%) and test (40%). Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves and ordering the patients by deciles of predicted <span class="hlt">risk</span> was used to assess <span class="hlt">model</span> performance. Using English Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data, we built multivariable logistic regression <span class="hlt">models</span> with independent variables based on frailty syndromes (10th revision International Statistical Classification of Diseases, Injuries and Causes of Death (ICD-10) coding), demographics and previous hospital utilisation. Patients included were those >65 years with emergency admission to acute provider in England (2012). Results Frailty syndrome <span class="hlt">models</span> exhibited ROC scores of 0.624–0.659 for inpatient mortality, 0.63–0.654 for institutionalisation and 0.57–0.63 for 30-day emergency readmission. Conclusions Frailty syndromes are a valid predictor of outcomes relevant to acute care. The <span class="hlt">models</span> predictive power is in keeping with other scores in the literature, but is a simple, clinically relevant and potentially</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1991arm..symp..108S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1991arm..symp..108S"><span id="translatedtitle">A simulation <span class="hlt">model</span> for <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment of turbine wheels</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Safie, Fayssal M.; Hage, Richard T.</p> <p></p> <p>A simulation <span class="hlt">model</span> has been successfully developed to evaluate the <span class="hlt">risk</span> of the Space Shuttle auxiliary power unit (APU) turbine wheels for a specific inspection policy. Besides being an effective tool for <span class="hlt">risk</span>/reliability evaluation, the simulation <span class="hlt">model</span> also allows the analyst to study the trade-offs between wheel reliability, wheel life, inspection interval, and rejection crack size. For example, in the APU application, sensitivity analysis results showed that the wheel life limit has the least effect on wheel reliability when compared to the effect of the inspection interval and the rejection crack size. In summary, the simulation <span class="hlt">model</span> developed represents a flexible tool to predict turbine wheel reliability and study the <span class="hlt">risk</span> under different inspection policies.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19920059432&hterms=APU&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D60%26Ntt%3DAPU','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19920059432&hterms=APU&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D60%26Ntt%3DAPU"><span id="translatedtitle">A simulation <span class="hlt">model</span> for <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment of turbine wheels</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Safie, Fayssal M.; Hage, Richard T.</p> <p>1991-01-01</p> <p>A simulation <span class="hlt">model</span> has been successfully developed to evaluate the <span class="hlt">risk</span> of the Space Shuttle auxiliary power unit (APU) turbine wheels for a specific inspection policy. Besides being an effective tool for <span class="hlt">risk</span>/reliability evaluation, the simulation <span class="hlt">model</span> also allows the analyst to study the trade-offs between wheel reliability, wheel life, inspection interval, and rejection crack size. For example, in the APU application, sensitivity analysis results showed that the wheel life limit has the least effect on wheel reliability when compared to the effect of the inspection interval and the rejection crack size. In summary, the simulation <span class="hlt">model</span> developed represents a flexible tool to predict turbine wheel reliability and study the <span class="hlt">risk</span> under different inspection policies.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006CG.....32..890A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006CG.....32..890A"><span id="translatedtitle">A new <span class="hlt">model</span> for polluted soil <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Andretta, M.; Serra, R.; Villani, M.</p> <p>2006-08-01</p> <p>In this paper, we discuss the most important theoretical aspects of polluted soil <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Assessment Methodologies, which have been developed in order to evaluate the <span class="hlt">risk</span>, for the exposed people, connected with the residual contaminant concentration in polluted soil, and we make a short presentation of the major different kinds of <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment methodologies. We also underline the relevant role played, in this kind of analysis, by the pollutant transport <span class="hlt">models</span>. We also describe a new and innovative <span class="hlt">model</span>, based on the general framework of the so-called Cellular Automata (CA), initially developed in the UE-Esprit Project COLOMBO for the simulation of bioremediation processes. These kinds of <span class="hlt">models</span>, for their intrinsic "finite and discrete" characteristics, seem to be very well suited for a detailed analysis of the shape of the pollutant sources, the contaminant fates and the evaluation of target in the <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment evaluation. In particular, we will describe the future research activities we are going to develop in the area of a strict integration between pollutant fate and transport <span class="hlt">models</span> and <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Analysis Methodologies.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/40136','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/40136"><span id="translatedtitle">The use of ecosystem <span class="hlt">models</span> in <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Starodub, M.E.; Miller, P.A.; Willes, R.F.</p> <p>1994-12-31</p> <p>Ecosystem <span class="hlt">models</span>, when used in conjunction with available environmental effects monitoring data enable informed decisions regarding actions that should be taken to manage ecological <span class="hlt">risks</span> from areas of localized chemical loadings and accumulation. These <span class="hlt">models</span> provide quantitative estimates of chemical concentrations in various environmental media. The reliable application of these <span class="hlt">models</span> as predictive tools for environmental assessment requires a thorough understanding of the theory and mathematical relationships described by the <span class="hlt">models</span> and demands rigorous validation of input data and <span class="hlt">model</span> results with field and laboratory data. Food chain <span class="hlt">model</span> selection should be based on the ability to best simulate the interactions of the food web and processes governing the transfer of chemicals from the dissolved and particulate phase to various trophic levels for the site in question. This requires that the user be familiar with the theories on which these <span class="hlt">models</span> are based, and be aware of the merits and short comings of each prior to attempting to <span class="hlt">model</span> food chain accumulation. Questions to be asked include: are all potential exposure pathways addressed? are omitted pathways critical to the <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment process? is the <span class="hlt">model</span> flexible? To answer these questions one must consider the, chemical(s) of concern, site-specific ecosystem characteristics, <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment receptor (aquatic, wildlife, human) dietary habits, influence of effluent characteristics on food chain dynamics.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140010030','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140010030"><span id="translatedtitle">Physics-based Entry, Descent and Landing <span class="hlt">Risk</span> <span class="hlt">Model</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Gee, Ken; Huynh, Loc C.; Manning, Ted</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>A physics-based <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">model</span> was developed to assess the <span class="hlt">risk</span> associated with thermal protection system failures during the entry, descent and landing phase of a manned spacecraft mission. In the <span class="hlt">model</span>, entry trajectories were computed using a three-degree-of-freedom trajectory tool, the aerothermodynamic heating environment was computed using an engineering-level computational tool and the thermal response of the TPS material was <span class="hlt">modeled</span> using a one-dimensional thermal response tool. The <span class="hlt">model</span> was capable of <span class="hlt">modeling</span> the effect of micrometeoroid and orbital debris impact damage on the TPS thermal response. A Monte Carlo analysis was used to determine the effects of uncertainties in the vehicle state at Entry Interface, aerothermodynamic heating and material properties on the performance of the TPS design. The failure criterion was set as a temperature limit at the bondline between the TPS and the underlying structure. Both direct computation and response surface approaches were used to compute the <span class="hlt">risk</span>. The <span class="hlt">model</span> was applied to a generic manned space capsule design. The effect of material property uncertainty and MMOD damage on <span class="hlt">risk</span> of failure were analyzed. A comparison of the direct computation and response surface approach was undertaken.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27345199','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27345199"><span id="translatedtitle">Evaluating biomarkers to <span class="hlt">model</span> cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span> post cosmic ray exposure.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Sridharan, Deepa M; Asaithamby, Aroumougame; Blattnig, Steve R; Costes, Sylvain V; Doetsch, Paul W; Dynan, William S; Hahnfeldt, Philip; Hlatky, Lynn; Kidane, Yared; Kronenberg, Amy; Naidu, Mamta D; Peterson, Leif E; Plante, Ianik; Ponomarev, Artem L; Saha, Janapriya; Snijders, Antoine M; Srinivasan, Kalayarasan; Tang, Jonathan; Werner, Erica; Pluth, Janice M</p> <p>2016-06-01</p> <p>Robust predictive <span class="hlt">models</span> are essential to manage the <span class="hlt">risk</span> of radiation-induced carcinogenesis. Chronic exposure to cosmic rays in the context of the complex deep space environment may place astronauts at high cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span>. To estimate this <span class="hlt">risk</span>, it is critical to understand how radiation-induced cellular stress impacts cell fate decisions and how this in turn alters the <span class="hlt">risk</span> of carcinogenesis. Exposure to the heavy ion component of cosmic rays triggers a multitude of cellular changes, depending on the rate of exposure, the type of damage incurred and individual susceptibility. Heterogeneity in dose, dose rate, radiation quality, energy and particle flux contribute to the complexity of <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment. To unravel the impact of each of these factors, it is critical to identify sensitive biomarkers that can serve as inputs for robust <span class="hlt">modeling</span> of individual <span class="hlt">risk</span> of cancer or other long-term health consequences of exposure. Limitations in sensitivity of biomarkers to dose and dose rate, and the complexity of longitudinal monitoring, are some of the factors that increase uncertainties in the output from <span class="hlt">risk</span> prediction <span class="hlt">models</span>. Here, we critically evaluate candidate early and late biomarkers of radiation exposure and discuss their usefulness in predicting cell fate decisions. Some of the biomarkers we have reviewed include complex clustered DNA damage, persistent DNA repair foci, reactive oxygen species, chromosome aberrations and inflammation. Other biomarkers discussed, often assayed for at longer points post exposure, include mutations, chromosome aberrations, reactive oxygen species and telomere length changes. We discuss the relationship of biomarkers to different potential cell fates, including proliferation, apoptosis, senescence, and loss of stemness, which can propagate genomic instability and alter tissue composition and the underlying mRNA signatures that contribute to cell fate decisions. Our goal is to highlight factors that are important in choosing</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2016LSSR....9...19S&link_type=ABSTRACT','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2016LSSR....9...19S&link_type=ABSTRACT"><span id="translatedtitle">Evaluating biomarkers to <span class="hlt">model</span> cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span> post cosmic ray exposure</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Sridharan, Deepa M.; Asaithamby, Aroumougame; Blattnig, Steve R.; Costes, Sylvain V.; Doetsch, Paul W.; Dynan, William S.; Hahnfeldt, Philip; Hlatky, Lynn; Kidane, Yared; Kronenberg, Amy; Naidu, Mamta D.; Peterson, Leif E.; Plante, Ianik; Ponomarev, Artem L.; Saha, Janapriya; Snijders, Antoine M.; Srinivasan, Kalayarasan; Tang, Jonathan; Werner, Erica; Pluth, Janice M.</p> <p>2016-06-01</p> <p>Robust predictive <span class="hlt">models</span> are essential to manage the <span class="hlt">risk</span> of radiation-induced carcinogenesis. Chronic exposure to cosmic rays in the context of the complex deep space environment may place astronauts at high cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span>. To estimate this <span class="hlt">risk</span>, it is critical to understand how radiation-induced cellular stress impacts cell fate decisions and how this in turn alters the <span class="hlt">risk</span> of carcinogenesis. Exposure to the heavy ion component of cosmic rays triggers a multitude of cellular changes, depending on the rate of exposure, the type of damage incurred and individual susceptibility. Heterogeneity in dose, dose rate, radiation quality, energy and particle flux contribute to the complexity of <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment. To unravel the impact of each of these factors, it is critical to identify sensitive biomarkers that can serve as inputs for robust <span class="hlt">modeling</span> of individual <span class="hlt">risk</span> of cancer or other long-term health consequences of exposure. Limitations in sensitivity of biomarkers to dose and dose rate, and the complexity of longitudinal monitoring, are some of the factors that increase uncertainties in the output from <span class="hlt">risk</span> prediction <span class="hlt">models</span>. Here, we critically evaluate candidate early and late biomarkers of radiation exposure and discuss their usefulness in predicting cell fate decisions. Some of the biomarkers we have reviewed include complex clustered DNA damage, persistent DNA repair foci, reactive oxygen species, chromosome aberrations and inflammation. Other biomarkers discussed, often assayed for at longer points post exposure, include mutations, chromosome aberrations, reactive oxygen species and telomere length changes. We discuss the relationship of biomarkers to different potential cell fates, including proliferation, apoptosis, senescence, and loss of stemness, which can propagate genomic instability and alter tissue composition and the underlying mRNA signatures that contribute to cell fate decisions. Our goal is to highlight factors that are important in choosing</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li class="active"><span>15</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_15 --> <div id="page_16" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li class="active"><span>16</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="301"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26610979','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26610979"><span id="translatedtitle">Are Masking-Based <span class="hlt">Models</span> of <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Useful?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Gisiner, Robert C</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>As our understanding of directly observable effects from anthropogenic sound exposure has improved, concern about "unobservable" effects such as stress and masking have received greater attention. Equal energy <span class="hlt">models</span> of masking such as power spectrum <span class="hlt">models</span> have the appeal of simplicity, but do they offer biologically realistic assessments of the <span class="hlt">risk</span> of masking? Data relevant to masking such as critical ratios, critical bandwidths, temporal resolution, and directional resolution along with what is known about general mammalian antimasking mechanisms all argue for a much more complicated view of masking when making decisions about the <span class="hlt">risk</span> of masking inherent in a given anthropogenic sound exposure scenario. PMID:26610979</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2004PhDT........78H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2004PhDT........78H"><span id="translatedtitle">A dynamical systems <span class="hlt">model</span> for nuclear power plant <span class="hlt">risk</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Hess, Stephen Michael</p> <p></p> <p>The recent transition to an open access generation marketplace has forced nuclear plant operators to become much more cost conscious and focused on plant performance. Coincidentally, the regulatory perspective also is in a state of transition from a command and control framework to one that is <span class="hlt">risk</span>-informed and performance-based. Due to these structural changes in the economics and regulatory system associated with commercial nuclear power plant operation, there is an increased need for plant management to explicitly manage nuclear safety <span class="hlt">risk</span>. Application of probabilistic <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment techniques to <span class="hlt">model</span> plant hardware has provided a significant contribution to understanding the potential initiating events and equipment failures that can lead to core damage accidents. Application of the lessons learned from these analyses has supported improved plant operation and safety over the previous decade. However, this analytical approach has not been nearly as successful in addressing the impact of plant processes and management effectiveness on the <span class="hlt">risks</span> of plant operation. Thus, the research described in this dissertation presents a different approach to address this issue. Here we propose a dynamical <span class="hlt">model</span> that describes the interaction of important plant processes among themselves and their overall impact on nuclear safety <span class="hlt">risk</span>. We first provide a review of the techniques that are applied in a conventional probabilistic <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment of commercially operating nuclear power plants and summarize the typical results obtained. The limitations of the conventional approach and the status of research previously performed to address these limitations also are presented. Next, we present the case for the application of an alternative approach using dynamical systems theory. This includes a discussion of previous applications of dynamical <span class="hlt">models</span> to study other important socio-economic issues. Next, we review the analytical techniques that are applicable to analysis of</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2012AGUFM.G11B0924M&link_type=ABSTRACT','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2012AGUFM.G11B0924M&link_type=ABSTRACT"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Absolute</span> Antenna Calibration at the US National Geodetic Survey</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Mader, G. L.; Bilich, A. L.</p> <p>2012-12-01</p> <p>Geodetic GNSS applications routinely demand millimeter precision and extremely high levels of accuracy. To achieve these accuracies, measurement and instrument biases at the centimeter to millimeter level must be understood. One of these biases is the antenna phase center, the apparent point of signal reception for a GNSS antenna. It has been well established that phase center patterns differ between antenna <span class="hlt">models</span> and manufacturers; additional research suggests that the addition of a radome or the choice of antenna mount can significantly alter those a priori phase center patterns. For the more demanding GNSS positioning applications and especially in cases of mixed-antenna networks, it is all the more important to know antenna phase center variations as a function of both elevation and azimuth in the antenna reference frame and incorporate these <span class="hlt">models</span> into analysis software. Determination of antenna phase center behavior is known as "antenna calibration". Since 1994, NGS has computed relative antenna calibrations for more than 350 antennas. In recent years, the geodetic community has moved to <span class="hlt">absolute</span> calibrations - the IGS adopted <span class="hlt">absolute</span> antenna phase center calibrations in 2006 for use in their orbit and clock products, and NGS's CORS group began using <span class="hlt">absolute</span> antenna calibration upon the release of the new CORS coordinates in IGS08 epoch 2005.00 and NAD 83(2011,MA11,PA11) epoch 2010.00. Although NGS relative calibrations can be and have been converted to <span class="hlt">absolute</span>, it is considered best practice to independently measure phase center characteristics in an <span class="hlt">absolute</span> sense. Consequently, NGS has developed and operates an <span class="hlt">absolute</span> calibration system. These <span class="hlt">absolute</span> antenna calibrations accommodate the demand for greater accuracy and for 2-dimensional (elevation and azimuth) parameterization. NGS will continue to provide calibration values via the NGS web site www.ngs.noaa.gov/ANTCAL, and will publish calibrations in the ANTEX format as well as the legacy ANTINFO</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2015AGUFMNH41B1817K&link_type=ABSTRACT','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2015AGUFMNH41B1817K&link_type=ABSTRACT"><span id="translatedtitle">Assessing Landslide <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Areas Using Statistical <span class="hlt">Models</span> and Land Cover</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kim, H. G.; Lee, D. K.; Park, C.; Ahn, Y.; Sung, S.; Park, J. H.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>Recently, damages due to landslides have increased in Republic of Korea. Extreme weathers like typhoon, heavy rainfall related to climate change are the main factor of the damages. Especially, Inje-gun, Gangwon-do had severe landslide damages in 2006 and 2007. In Inje-gun, 91% areas are forest, therefore, many land covers related to human activities were adjacent to forest land. Thus, establishment of adaptation plans to landslides was urgently needed. Landslide <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment can serve as a good information to policy makers. The objective of this study was assessing landslide <span class="hlt">risk</span> areas to support establishment of adaptation plans to reduce landslide damages. Statistical distribution <span class="hlt">models</span> (SDMs) were used to evaluate probability of landslide occurrence. Various SDMs were used to make landslide probability maps considering uncertainty of SDMs. The types of land cover were classified into 5 grades considering vulnerable level to landslide. The landslide probability maps were overlaid with land cover map to calculate landslide <span class="hlt">risk</span>. As a result of overlay analysis, landslide <span class="hlt">risk</span> areas were derived. Especially agricultural areas and transportation areas showed high <span class="hlt">risk</span> and large areas in the <span class="hlt">risk</span> map. In conclusion, policy makers in Inje-gun must consider the landslide <span class="hlt">risk</span> map to establish adaptation plans effectively.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24402720','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24402720"><span id="translatedtitle">Gambler <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Perception: A Mental <span class="hlt">Model</span> and Grounded Theory Analysis.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Spurrier, Michael; Blaszczynski, Alexander; Rhodes, Paul</p> <p>2015-09-01</p> <p>Few studies have investigated how gamblers perceive <span class="hlt">risk</span> or the role of <span class="hlt">risk</span> perception in disordered gambling. The purpose of the current study therefore was to obtain data on lay gamblers' beliefs on these variables and their effects on decision-making, behaviour, and disordered gambling aetiology. Fifteen regular lay gamblers (non-problem/low <span class="hlt">risk</span>, moderate <span class="hlt">risk</span> and problem gamblers) completed a semi-structured interview following mental <span class="hlt">models</span> and grounded theory methodologies. Gambler interview data was compared to an expert 'map' of <span class="hlt">risk</span>-perception, to identify comparative gaps or differences associated with harmful or safe gambling. Systematic overlapping processes of data gathering and analysis were used to iteratively extend, saturate, test for exception, and verify concepts and themes emerging from the data. The preliminary findings suggested that gambler accounts supported the presence of expert conceptual constructs, and to some degree the role of <span class="hlt">risk</span> perception in protecting against or increasing vulnerability to harm and disordered gambling. Gambler accounts of causality, meaning, motivation, and strategy were highly idiosyncratic, and often contained content inconsistent with measures of disordered gambling. Disordered gambling appears heavily influenced by relative underestimation of <span class="hlt">risk</span> and overvaluation of gambling, based on explicit and implicit analysis, and deliberate, innate, contextual, and learned processing evaluations and biases. PMID:24402720</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/21124486','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/21124486"><span id="translatedtitle">Analysis of Radiation Pneumonitis <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Using a Generalized Lyman <span class="hlt">Model</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Tucker, Susan L. Liu, H. Helen; Liao Zhongxing; Wei Xiong; Wang Shulian; Jin Hekun; Komaki, Ritsuko; Martel, Mary K.; Mohan, Radhe</p> <p>2008-10-01</p> <p>Purpose: To introduce a version of the Lyman normal-tissue complication probability (NTCP) <span class="hlt">model</span> adapted to incorporate censored time-to-toxicity data and clinical <span class="hlt">risk</span> factors and to apply the generalized <span class="hlt">model</span> to analysis of radiation pneumonitis (RP) <span class="hlt">risk</span>. Methods and Materials: Medical records and radiation treatment plans were reviewed retrospectively for 576 patients with non-small cell lung cancer treated with radiotherapy. The time to severe (Grade {>=}3) RP was computed, with event times censored at last follow-up for patients not experiencing this endpoint. The censored time-to-toxicity data were analyzed using the standard and generalized Lyman <span class="hlt">models</span> with patient smoking status taken into account. Results: The generalized Lyman <span class="hlt">model</span> with patient smoking status taken into account produced NTCP estimates up to 27 percentage points different from the <span class="hlt">model</span> based on dose-volume factors alone. The generalized <span class="hlt">model</span> also predicted that 8% of the expected cases of severe RP were unobserved because of censoring. The estimated volume parameter for lung was not significantly different from n = 1, corresponding to mean lung dose. Conclusions: NTCP <span class="hlt">models</span> historically have been based solely on dose-volume effects and binary (yes/no) toxicity data. Our results demonstrate that inclusion of nondosimetric <span class="hlt">risk</span> factors and censored time-to-event data can markedly affect outcome predictions made using NTCP <span class="hlt">models</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4056181','PMC'); return false;" href="http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4056181"><span id="translatedtitle">Estimating the predictive ability of genetic <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">models</span> in simulated data based on published results from genome-wide association studies</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Kundu, Suman; Mihaescu, Raluca; Meijer, Catherina M. C.; Bakker, Rachel; Janssens, A. Cecile J. W.</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>Background: There is increasing interest in investigating genetic <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">models</span> in empirical studies, but such studies are premature when the expected predictive ability of the <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">model</span> is low. We assessed how accurately the predictive ability of genetic <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">models</span> can be estimated in simulated data that are created based on the odds ratios (ORs) and frequencies of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) obtained from genome-wide association studies (GWASs). Methods: We aimed to replicate published prediction studies that reported the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) as a measure of predictive ability. We searched GWAS articles for all SNPs included in these <span class="hlt">models</span> and extracted ORs and <span class="hlt">risk</span> allele frequencies to construct genotypes and disease status for a hypothetical population. Using these hypothetical data, we reconstructed the published genetic <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">models</span> and compared their AUC values to those reported in the original articles. Results: The accuracy of the AUC values varied with the method used for the construction of the <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">models</span>. When logistic regression analysis was used to construct the genetic <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">model</span>, AUC values estimated by the simulation method were similar to the published values with a median <span class="hlt">absolute</span> difference of 0.02 [range: 0.00, 0.04]. This difference was 0.03 [range: 0.01, 0.06] and 0.05 [range: 0.01, 0.08] for unweighted and weighted <span class="hlt">risk</span> scores. Conclusions: The predictive ability of genetic <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">models</span> can be estimated using simulated data based on results from GWASs. Simulation methods can be useful to estimate the predictive ability in the absence of empirical data and to decide whether empirical investigation of genetic <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">models</span> is warranted. PMID:24982668</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010ArTr...22..423M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010ArTr...22..423M"><span id="translatedtitle">A <span class="hlt">Model</span> for <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Analysis of Oil Tankers</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Montewka, Jakub; Krata, Przemysław; Goerland, Floris; Kujala, Pentti</p> <p>2010-01-01</p> <p>The paper presents a <span class="hlt">model</span> for <span class="hlt">risk</span> analysis regarding marine traffic, with the emphasis on two types of the most common marine accidents which are: collision and grounding. The focus is on oil tankers as these pose the highest environmental <span class="hlt">risk</span>. A case study in selected areas of Gulf of Finland in ice free conditions is presented. The <span class="hlt">model</span> utilizes a well-founded formula for <span class="hlt">risk</span> calculation, which combines the probability of an unwanted event with its consequences. Thus the <span class="hlt">model</span> is regarded a block type <span class="hlt">model</span>, consisting of blocks for the probability of collision and grounding estimation respectively as well as blocks for consequences of an accident <span class="hlt">modelling</span>. Probability of vessel colliding is assessed by means of a Minimum Distance To Collision (MDTC) based <span class="hlt">model</span>. The <span class="hlt">model</span> defines in a novel way the collision zone, using mathematical ship motion <span class="hlt">model</span> and recognizes traffic flow as a non homogeneous process. The presented calculations address waterways crossing between Helsinki and Tallinn, where dense cross traffic during certain hours is observed. For assessment of a grounding probability, a new approach is proposed, which utilizes a newly developed <span class="hlt">model</span>, where spatial interactions between objects in different locations are recognized. A ship at a seaway and navigational obstructions may be perceived as interacting objects and their repulsion may be <span class="hlt">modelled</span> by a sort of deterministic formulation. <span class="hlt">Risk</span> due to tankers running aground addresses an approach fairway to an oil terminal in Sköldvik, near Helsinki. The consequences of an accident are expressed in monetary terms, and concern costs of an oil spill, based on statistics of compensations claimed from the International Oil Pollution Compensation Funds (IOPC Funds) by parties involved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1989ngs..rept.....P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1989ngs..rept.....P"><span id="translatedtitle">The National Geodetic Survey <span class="hlt">absolute</span> gravity program</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Peter, George; Moose, Robert E.; Wessells, Claude W.</p> <p>1989-03-01</p> <p>The National Geodetic Survey <span class="hlt">absolute</span> gravity program will utilize the high precision afforded by the JILAG-4 instrument to support geodetic and geophysical research, which involves studies of vertical motions, identification and <span class="hlt">modeling</span> of other temporal variations, and establishment of reference values. The scientific rationale of these objectives is given, the procedures used to collect gravity and environmental data in the field are defined, and the steps necessary to correct and remove unwanted environmental effects are stated. In addition, site selection criteria, methods of concomitant environmental data collection and relative gravity observations, and schedule and logistics are discussed.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4378802','PMC'); return false;" href="http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4378802"><span id="translatedtitle">Evaluation of Periodontal <span class="hlt">Risk</span> in Adult Patients using Two Different <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Assessment <span class="hlt">Models</span> – A Pilot Study</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Bade, Shruthi; Bollepalli, Appaiah Chowdary; Katuri, Kishore Kumar; Devulapalli, Narasimha Swamy; Swarna, Chakrapani</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Objective: The aim of the present study was to evaluate the periodontal <span class="hlt">risk</span> of individuals using periodontal <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment (PRA) <span class="hlt">model</span> and modified PRA <span class="hlt">model</span>. Materials and Methods: A total of 50 patients with chronic periodontitis, age 30-60 years were selected randomly and charting of the periodontal status was performed and those who met the inclusion criteria were enrolled in the study. Parameters recorded were- percentage of sites with bleeding on probing (BOP), number of sites with pocket depths (PD) ≥ 5mm, number of the teeth lost, bone loss (BL)/age ratio, Clinical attachment loss(CAL)/age ratio, diabetic and smoking status, dental status, systemic factors like diabetes were assessed. All the <span class="hlt">risk</span> factors were plotted on the radar chart in (PRA) and (mPRA) <span class="hlt">models</span>, using Microsoft excel and periodontal <span class="hlt">risk</span> were categorized as low, moderate and high <span class="hlt">risk</span>. Results: Among 50 patients 31 were in low <span class="hlt">risk</span>, 9 in moderate <span class="hlt">risk</span>, and 10 in high <span class="hlt">risk</span> identified by modified (PRA) <span class="hlt">model</span>, whereas 28 patients were in low <span class="hlt">risk</span>, 13 in moderate <span class="hlt">risk</span> and 9 in high <span class="hlt">risk</span> identified by (PRA). Statistical analysis demonstrated that there was no significant difference between the <span class="hlt">risk</span> scores (X2 = 0.932 with degree of freedom = 2, P = 0.627). Conclusion: Both the periodontal <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">models</span> are effective in evaluating the <span class="hlt">risk</span> factors and can be useful tool for predicting proper diagnosis, disease progression and therapeutic strategies during the supportive periodontal therapy. PMID:25859520</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25082795','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25082795"><span id="translatedtitle">A critical evaluation of secondary cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">models</span> applied to Monte Carlo dose distributions of 2-dimensional, 3-dimensional conformal and hybrid intensity-modulated radiation therapy for breast cancer.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Joosten, A; Bochud, F; Moeckli, R</p> <p>2014-08-21</p> <p>The comparison of radiotherapy techniques regarding secondary cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span> has yielded contradictory results possibly stemming from the many different approaches used to estimate <span class="hlt">risk</span>. The purpose of this study was to make a comprehensive evaluation of different available <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">models</span> applied to detailed whole-body dose distributions computed by Monte Carlo for various breast radiotherapy techniques including conventional open tangents, 3D conformal wedged tangents and hybrid intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT). First, organ-specific linear <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">models</span> developed by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) and the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) VII committee were applied to mean doses for remote organs only and all solid organs. Then, different general non-linear <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">models</span> were applied to the whole body dose distribution. Finally, organ-specific non-linear <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">models</span> for the lung and breast were used to assess the secondary cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span> for these two specific organs. A total of 32 different calculated <span class="hlt">absolute</span> <span class="hlt">risks</span> resulted in a broad range of values (between 0.1% and 48.5%) underlying the large uncertainties in <span class="hlt">absolute</span> <span class="hlt">risk</span> calculation. The ratio of <span class="hlt">risk</span> between two techniques has often been proposed as a more robust assessment of <span class="hlt">risk</span> than the <span class="hlt">absolute</span> <span class="hlt">risk</span>. We found that the ratio of <span class="hlt">risk</span> between two techniques could also vary substantially considering the different approaches to <span class="hlt">risk</span> estimation. Sometimes the ratio of <span class="hlt">risk</span> between two techniques would range between values smaller and larger than one, which then translates into inconsistent results on the potential higher <span class="hlt">risk</span> of one technique compared to another. We found however that the hybrid IMRT technique resulted in a systematic reduction of <span class="hlt">risk</span> compared to the other techniques investigated even though the magnitude of this reduction varied substantially with the different approaches investigated. Based on the epidemiological data available, a reasonable</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2014PMB....59.4697J&link_type=ABSTRACT','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2014PMB....59.4697J&link_type=ABSTRACT"><span id="translatedtitle">A critical evaluation of secondary cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">models</span> applied to Monte Carlo dose distributions of 2-dimensional, 3-dimensional conformal and hybrid intensity-modulated radiation therapy for breast cancer</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Joosten, A.; Bochud, F.; Moeckli, R.</p> <p>2014-08-01</p> <p>The comparison of radiotherapy techniques regarding secondary cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span> has yielded contradictory results possibly stemming from the many different approaches used to estimate <span class="hlt">risk</span>. The purpose of this study was to make a comprehensive evaluation of different available <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">models</span> applied to detailed whole-body dose distributions computed by Monte Carlo for various breast radiotherapy techniques including conventional open tangents, 3D conformal wedged tangents and hybrid intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT). First, organ-specific linear <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">models</span> developed by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) and the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) VII committee were applied to mean doses for remote organs only and all solid organs. Then, different general non-linear <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">models</span> were applied to the whole body dose distribution. Finally, organ-specific non-linear <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">models</span> for the lung and breast were used to assess the secondary cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span> for these two specific organs. A total of 32 different calculated <span class="hlt">absolute</span> <span class="hlt">risks</span> resulted in a broad range of values (between 0.1% and 48.5%) underlying the large uncertainties in <span class="hlt">absolute</span> <span class="hlt">risk</span> calculation. The ratio of <span class="hlt">risk</span> between two techniques has often been proposed as a more robust assessment of <span class="hlt">risk</span> than the <span class="hlt">absolute</span> <span class="hlt">risk</span>. We found that the ratio of <span class="hlt">risk</span> between two techniques could also vary substantially considering the different approaches to <span class="hlt">risk</span> estimation. Sometimes the ratio of <span class="hlt">risk</span> between two techniques would range between values smaller and larger than one, which then translates into inconsistent results on the potential higher <span class="hlt">risk</span> of one technique compared to another. We found however that the hybrid IMRT technique resulted in a systematic reduction of <span class="hlt">risk</span> compared to the other techniques investigated even though the magnitude of this reduction varied substantially with the different approaches investigated. Based on the epidemiological data available, a reasonable</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://eric.ed.gov/?q=bernoulli&pg=5&id=EJ473779','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://eric.ed.gov/?q=bernoulli&pg=5&id=EJ473779"><span id="translatedtitle">Evaluating the <span class="hlt">Risks</span>: A Bernoulli Process <span class="hlt">Model</span> of HIV Infection and <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Reduction.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Pinkerton, Steven D.; Abramson, Paul R.</p> <p>1993-01-01</p> <p>A Bernoulli process <span class="hlt">model</span> of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is used to evaluate infection <span class="hlt">risks</span> associated with various sexual behaviors (condom use, abstinence, or monogamy). Results suggest that infection is best mitigated through measures that decrease infectivity, such as condom use. (SLD)</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20130008996','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20130008996"><span id="translatedtitle">Launch Vehicle Debris <span class="hlt">Models</span> and Crew Vehicle Ascent Abort <span class="hlt">Risk</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Gee, Ken; Lawrence, Scott</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>For manned space launch systems, a reliable abort system is required to reduce the <span class="hlt">risks</span> associated with a launch vehicle failure during ascent. Understanding the <span class="hlt">risks</span> associated with failure environments can be achieved through the use of physics-based <span class="hlt">models</span> of these environments. Debris fields due to destruction of the launch vehicle is one such environment. To better analyze the <span class="hlt">risk</span> posed by debris, a physics-based <span class="hlt">model</span> for generating launch vehicle debris catalogs has been developed. The <span class="hlt">model</span> predicts the mass distribution of the debris field based on formulae developed from analysis of explosions. Imparted velocity distributions are computed using a shock-physics code to <span class="hlt">model</span> the explosions within the launch vehicle. A comparison of the debris catalog with an existing catalog for the Shuttle external tank show good comparison in the debris characteristics and the predicted debris strike probability. The <span class="hlt">model</span> is used to analyze the effects of number of debris pieces and velocity distributions on the strike probability and <span class="hlt">risk</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24194413','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24194413"><span id="translatedtitle">Forewarning <span class="hlt">model</span> for water pollution <span class="hlt">risk</span> based on Bayes theory.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Zhao, Jun; Jin, Juliang; Guo, Qizhong; Chen, Yaqian; Lu, Mengxiong; Tinoco, Luis</p> <p>2014-02-01</p> <p>In order to reduce the losses by water pollution, forewarning <span class="hlt">model</span> for water pollution <span class="hlt">risk</span> based on Bayes theory was studied. This <span class="hlt">model</span> is built upon <span class="hlt">risk</span> indexes in complex systems, proceeding from the whole structure and its components. In this study, the principal components analysis is used to screen out index systems. Hydrological <span class="hlt">model</span> is employed to simulate index value according to the prediction principle. Bayes theory is adopted to obtain posterior distribution by prior distribution with sample information which can make samples' features preferably reflect and represent the totals to some extent. Forewarning level is judged on the maximum probability rule, and then local conditions for proposing management strategies that will have the effect of transforming heavy warnings to a lesser degree. This study takes Taihu Basin as an example. After forewarning <span class="hlt">model</span> application and vertification for water pollution <span class="hlt">risk</span> from 2000 to 2009 between the actual and simulated data, forewarning level in 2010 is given as a severe warning, which is well coincide with logistic curve. It is shown that the <span class="hlt">model</span> is rigorous in theory with flexible method, reasonable in result with simple structure, and it has strong logic superiority and regional adaptability, providing a new way for warning water pollution <span class="hlt">risk</span>. PMID:24194413</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20090016156&hterms=inflammation&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D30%26Ntt%3Dinflammation','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20090016156&hterms=inflammation&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D30%26Ntt%3Dinflammation"><span id="translatedtitle">Development of a GCR Event-based <span class="hlt">Risk</span> <span class="hlt">Model</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Cucinotta, Francis A.; Ponomarev, Artem L.; Plante, Ianik; Carra, Claudio; Kim, Myung-Hee</p> <p>2009-01-01</p> <p>A goal at NASA is to develop event-based systems biology <span class="hlt">models</span> of space radiation <span class="hlt">risks</span> that will replace the current dose-based empirical <span class="hlt">models</span>. Complex and varied biochemical signaling processes transmit the initial DNA and oxidative damage from space radiation into cellular and tissue responses. Mis-repaired damage or aberrant signals can lead to genomic instability, persistent oxidative stress or inflammation, which are causative of cancer and CNS <span class="hlt">risks</span>. Protective signaling through adaptive responses or cell repopulation is also possible. We are developing a computational simulation approach to galactic cosmic ray (GCR) effects that is based on biological events rather than average quantities such as dose, fluence, or dose equivalent. The goal of the GCR Event-based <span class="hlt">Risk</span> <span class="hlt">Model</span> (GERMcode) is to provide a simulation tool to describe and integrate physical and biological events into stochastic <span class="hlt">models</span> of space radiation <span class="hlt">risks</span>. We used the quantum multiple scattering <span class="hlt">model</span> of heavy ion fragmentation (QMSFRG) and well known energy loss processes to develop a stochastic Monte-Carlo based <span class="hlt">model</span> of GCR transport in spacecraft shielding and tissue. We validated the accuracy of the <span class="hlt">model</span> by comparing to physical data from the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL). Our simulation approach allows us to time-tag each GCR proton or heavy ion interaction in tissue including correlated secondary ions often of high multiplicity. Conventional space radiation <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment employs average quantities, and assumes linearity and additivity of responses over the complete range of GCR charge and energies. To investigate possible deviations from these assumptions, we studied several biological response pathway <span class="hlt">models</span> of varying induction and relaxation times including the ATM, TGF -Smad, and WNT signaling pathways. We then considered small volumes of interacting cells and the time-dependent biophysical events that the GCR would produce within these tissue volumes to estimate how</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012MsT..........6S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012MsT..........6S"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Modeling</span> secondary cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span> following paediatric radiotherapy: a comparison of intensity modulated proton therapy and photon therapy</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Shin, Naomi</p> <p></p> <p>Proton radiotherapy is known to reduce the radiation dose delivered to normal healthy tissue compared to photon techniques. The increase in normal tissue sparing could result in fewer acute and late effects from radiation therapy. In this work proton therapy plans were created for patients previously treated using photon therapy. Intensity modulated proton therapy (IMPT) plans were planned using inverse planning in VarianRTM's Eclipse(TM) treatment planning system with a scanning proton beam <span class="hlt">model</span> to the same relative biological effectiveness (RBE)-weighted prescription dose as the photon plan. Proton and photon plans were compared for target dose conformity and homogeneity, body volumes receiving 2 Gy and 5 Gy, integral dose, dose to normal tissues and second cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span>. Secondary cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span> was determined using two methods. The relative <span class="hlt">risk</span> of secondary cancer was found using the method described by Nguyen et al. 1 by applying a linear relationship between integral dose and relative <span class="hlt">risk</span> of secondary cancer. The second approach used Schneider et al. 's organ equivalent dose concept to describe the dose in the body and then calculate the excess <span class="hlt">absolute</span> <span class="hlt">risk</span> and cumulative <span class="hlt">risk</span> for solid cancers in the body. IMPT and photon plans had similar target conformity and homogeneity. However IMPT plans had reduced integral dose and volumes of the body receiving low dose. Overall the <span class="hlt">risk</span> of radiation induced secondary cancer was lower for IMPT plans compared to the corresponding photon plans with a reduction of ~36% using the integral dose <span class="hlt">model</span> and ˜50% using the organ equivalent dose <span class="hlt">model</span>. *Please refer to dissertation for footnotes.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/14641904','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/14641904"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Risk</span> <span class="hlt">modeling</span>, assessment, and management of lahar flow threat.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Leung, M F; Santos, J R; Haimes, Y Y</p> <p>2003-12-01</p> <p>The 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines is considered one of the most violent and destructive volcanic activities in the 20th century. Lahar is the Indonesian term for volcanic ash, and lahar flows resulting from the massive amount of volcanic materials deposited on the mountain's slope posed continued post-eruption threats to the surrounding areas, destroying lives, homes, agricultural products, and infrastructures. <span class="hlt">Risks</span> of lahar flows were identified immediately after the eruption, with scientific data provided by the Philippine Institute of Volcanology, the U.S. Geological Survey, and other research institutions. However, competing political, economic, and social agendas subordinated the importance of scientific information to policy making. Using systemic <span class="hlt">risk</span> analysis and management, this article addresses the issues of multiple objectives and the effective integration of scientific techniques into the decision-making process. It provides a <span class="hlt">modeling</span> framework for identifying, prioritizing, and evaluating policies for managing <span class="hlt">risk</span>. The major considerations are: (1) applying a holistic approach to <span class="hlt">risk</span> analysis through hierarchical holographic <span class="hlt">modeling</span>, (2) applying statistical methods to gain insight into the problem of uncertainty in <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment, (3) using multiobjective trade-off analysis to address the issue of multiple decisionmakers and stakeholders in the decision-making process, (4) using the conditional expected value of extreme events to complement and supplement the expected value in quantifying <span class="hlt">risk</span>, and (5) assessing the impacts of multistage decisions. Numerical examples based on ex post data are formulated to illustrate applications to various problems. The resulting framework from this study can serve as a general baseline <span class="hlt">model</span> for assessing and managing <span class="hlt">risks</span> of natural disasters, which the Philippines' lead agency-the National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC)-and other related organizations can use for their decision</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16231945','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16231945"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Absolute</span> rates of hole transfer in DNA.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Senthilkumar, Kittusamy; Grozema, Ferdinand C; Guerra, Célia Fonseca; Bickelhaupt, F Matthias; Lewis, Frederick D; Berlin, Yuri A; Ratner, Mark A; Siebbeles, Laurens D A</p> <p>2005-10-26</p> <p><span class="hlt">Absolute</span> rates of hole transfer between guanine nucleobases separated by one or two A:T base pairs in stilbenedicarboxamide-linked DNA hairpins were obtained by improved kinetic analysis of experimental data. The charge-transfer rates in four different DNA sequences were calculated using a density-functional-based tight-binding <span class="hlt">model</span> and a semiclassical superexchange <span class="hlt">model</span>. Site energies and charge-transfer integrals were calculated directly as the diagonal and off-diagonal matrix elements of the Kohn-Sham Hamiltonian, respectively, for all possible combinations of nucleobases. Taking into account the Coulomb interaction between the negative charge on the stilbenedicarboxamide linker and the hole on the DNA strand as well as effects of base pair twisting, the relative order of the experimental rates for hole transfer in different hairpins could be reproduced by tight-binding calculations. To reproduce quantitatively the <span class="hlt">absolute</span> values of the measured rate constants, the effect of the reorganization energy was taken into account within the semiclassical superexchange <span class="hlt">model</span> for charge transfer. The experimental rates could be reproduced with reorganization energies near 1 eV. The quantum chemical data obtained were used to discuss charge carrier mobility and hole-transport equilibria in DNA. PMID:16231945</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26950677','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26950677"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Modeling</span> <span class="hlt">risk</span> of occupational zoonotic influenza infection in swine workers.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Paccha, Blanca; Jones, Rachael M; Gibbs, Shawn; Kane, Michael J; Torremorell, Montserrat; Neira-Ramirez, Victor; Rabinowitz, Peter M</p> <p>2016-08-01</p> <p>Zoonotic transmission of influenza A virus (IAV) between swine and workers in swine production facilities may play a role in the emergence of novel influenza strains with pandemic potential. Guidelines to prevent transmission of influenza to swine workers have been developed but there is a need for evidence-based decision-making about protective measures such as respiratory protection. A mathematical <span class="hlt">model</span> was applied to estimate the <span class="hlt">risk</span> of occupational IAV exposure to swine workers by contact and airborne transmission, and to evaluate the use of respirators to reduce transmission.  The Markov <span class="hlt">model</span> was used to simulate the transport and exposure of workers to IAV in a swine facility. A dose-response function was used to estimate the <span class="hlt">risk</span> of infection. This approach is similar to methods previously used to estimate the <span class="hlt">risk</span> of infection in human health care settings. This study uses concentration of virus in air from field measurements collected during outbreaks of influenza in commercial swine facilities, and analyzed by polymerase chain reaction.  It was found that spending 25 min working in a barn during an influenza outbreak in a swine herd could be sufficient to cause zoonotic infection in a worker. However, this <span class="hlt">risk</span> estimate was sensitive to estimates of viral infectivity to humans. Wearing an excellent fitting N95 respirator reduced this <span class="hlt">risk</span>, but with high aerosol levels the predicted <span class="hlt">risk</span> of infection remained high under certain assumptions.  The results of this analysis indicate that under the conditions studied, swine workers are at <span class="hlt">risk</span> of zoonotic influenza infection. The use of an N95 respirator could reduce such <span class="hlt">risk</span>. These findings have implications for <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment and preventive programs targeting swine workers. The exact level of <span class="hlt">risk</span> remains uncertain, since our <span class="hlt">model</span> may have overestimated the viability or infectivity of IAV. Additionally, the potential for partial immunity in swine workers associated with repeated low</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li class="active"><span>16</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_16 --> <div id="page_17" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li class="active"><span>17</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="321"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19790013324','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19790013324"><span id="translatedtitle">The AFGL <span class="hlt">absolute</span> gravity program</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Hammond, J. A.; Iliff, R. L.</p> <p>1978-01-01</p> <p>A brief discussion of the AFGL's (Air Force Geophysics Laboratory) program in <span class="hlt">absolute</span> gravity is presented. Support of outside work and in-house studies relating to gravity instrumentation are discussed. A description of the current transportable system is included and the latest results are presented. These results show good agreement with measurements at the AFGL site by an Italian system. The accuracy obtained by the transportable apparatus is better than 0.1 microns sq sec 10 microgal and agreement with previous measurements is within the combined uncertainties of the measurements.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=43910&keyword=high+AND+risk+AND+pregnancy&actType=&TIMSType=+&TIMSSubTypeID=&DEID=&epaNumber=&ntisID=&archiveStatus=Both&ombCat=Any&dateBeginCreated=&dateEndCreated=&dateBeginPublishedPresented=&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&dateBeginCompleted=&dateEndCompleted=&personID=&role=Any&journalID=&publisherID=&sortBy=revisionDate&count=50&CFID=76377746&CFTOKEN=15190369','EPA-EIMS'); return false;" href="http://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=43910&keyword=high+AND+risk+AND+pregnancy&actType=&TIMSType=+&TIMSSubTypeID=&DEID=&epaNumber=&ntisID=&archiveStatus=Both&ombCat=Any&dateBeginCreated=&dateEndCreated=&dateBeginPublishedPresented=&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&dateBeginCompleted=&dateEndCompleted=&personID=&role=Any&journalID=&publisherID=&sortBy=revisionDate&count=50&CFID=76377746&CFTOKEN=15190369"><span id="translatedtitle">BIOLOGICALLY BASED DOSE RESPONSE <span class="hlt">MODELS</span> FOR DEVELOPMENTAL TOXICITY <span class="hlt">RISK</span> ASSESSMENT</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://oaspub.epa.gov/eims/query.page">EPA Science Inventory</a></p> <p></p> <p></p> <p>Present <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment procedures for non-cancer endpoints generally rely on the determination of No Observed Adverse Effects Levels (NOAELS) in animal <span class="hlt">models</span> followed by the application of various Uncertainty Factors (UFs) to account for unknowns in extrapolating high dose toxi...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=148804&keyword=subacute&actType=&TIMSType=+&TIMSSubTypeID=&DEID=&epaNumber=&ntisID=&archiveStatus=Both&ombCat=Any&dateBeginCreated=&dateEndCreated=&dateBeginPublishedPresented=&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&dateBeginCompleted=&dateEndCompleted=&personID=&role=Any&journalID=&publisherID=&sortBy=revisionDate&count=50&CFID=65356342&CFTOKEN=47639076','EPA-EIMS'); return false;" href="http://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=148804&keyword=subacute&actType=&TIMSType=+&TIMSSubTypeID=&DEID=&epaNumber=&ntisID=&archiveStatus=Both&ombCat=Any&dateBeginCreated=&dateEndCreated=&dateBeginPublishedPresented=&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&dateBeginCompleted=&dateEndCompleted=&personID=&role=Any&journalID=&publisherID=&sortBy=revisionDate&count=50&CFID=65356342&CFTOKEN=47639076"><span id="translatedtitle">Field Evaluation of an Avian <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Assessment <span class="hlt">Model</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://oaspub.epa.gov/eims/query.page">EPA Science Inventory</a></p> <p></p> <p></p> <p>We conducted two laboratory subacute dietary toxicity tests and one outdoor subacute dietary toxicity test to determine the effectiveness of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's deterministic <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment <span class="hlt">model</span> for evaluating the potential of adverse effects to birds in ...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27329055','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27329055"><span id="translatedtitle">Surface Water Contamination <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Assessment <span class="hlt">Modeled</span> by Fuzzy-WRASTIC.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Alavipoor, Fatemeh Sadat; Ghorbaninia, Zahra; Karimi, Saeed; Jafari, Hamidreza</p> <p>2016-07-01</p> <p>This research provides a Fuzzy-WRASTIC new <span class="hlt">model</span> for water resource contamination <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment in a GIS (Geographic Information System) environment. First, this method setting in a multi-criteria evaluation framework (MCE) reviewed and mapped the sub criteria of every above-mentioned criterion. Then, related sub-layers were phased by the observance of GIS environment standards. In the next step, first the sub-layers were combined together, next the <span class="hlt">modeling</span> of pollution <span class="hlt">risk</span> status was done by utilizing a fuzzy overlay method and applying the OR, AND, SUM, PRODUCT and GAMMA operators by using WLC (Weighted Linear Combination) method and providing weights in the WRASTIC <span class="hlt">model</span>. The results provide the best combination of <span class="hlt">modeling</span> and the percentages of its <span class="hlt">risk</span> categories of low, medium, high and very high, which are respectively 1.8, 14.07, 51.43 and 32.7. More areas have severe <span class="hlt">risk</span> due to the unbalanced arrangement and compact of land uses around the compact surface water resources. PMID:27329055</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://eric.ed.gov/?q=gamble&pg=4&id=EJ871447','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://eric.ed.gov/?q=gamble&pg=4&id=EJ871447"><span id="translatedtitle">A Dual System <span class="hlt">Model</span> of Preferences under <span class="hlt">Risk</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Mukherjee, Kanchan</p> <p>2010-01-01</p> <p>This article presents a dual system <span class="hlt">model</span> (DSM) of decision making under <span class="hlt">risk</span> and uncertainty according to which the value of a gamble is a combination of the values assigned to it independently by the affective and deliberative systems. On the basis of research on dual process theories and empirical research in Hsee and Rottenstreich (2004) and…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70173610','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70173610"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Modeling</span> <span class="hlt">risk</span> of pneumonia epizootics in bighorn sheep</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Sells, Sarah N.; Mitchell, Michael S.; Nowak, J. Joshua; Lukacs, Paul M.; Anderson, Neil J.; Ramsey, Jennifer M.; Gude, Justin A.; Krausman, Paul R.</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Pneumonia epizootics are a major challenge for management of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) affecting persistence of herds, satisfaction of stakeholders, and allocations of resources by management agencies. <span class="hlt">Risk</span> factors associated with the disease are poorly understood, making pneumonia epizootics hard to predict; such epizootics are thus managed reactively rather than proactively. We developed a <span class="hlt">model</span> for herds in Montana that identifies <span class="hlt">risk</span> factors and addresses biological questions about <span class="hlt">risk</span>. Using Bayesian logistic regression with repeated measures, we found that private land, weed control using domestic sheep or goats, pneumonia history, and herd density were positively associated with <span class="hlt">risk</span> of pneumonia epizootics in 43 herds that experienced 22 epizootics out of 637 herd-years from 1979–2013. We defined an area of high <span class="hlt">risk</span> for pathogen exposure as the area of each herd distribution plus a 14.5-km buffer from that boundary. Within this area, the odds of a pneumonia epizootic increased by >1.5 times per additional unit of private land (unit is the standardized % of private land where global  = 25.58% and SD = 14.53%). Odds were >3.3 times greater if domestic sheep or goats were used for weed control in a herd's area of high <span class="hlt">risk</span>. If a herd or its neighbors within the area of high <span class="hlt">risk</span> had a history of a pneumonia epizootic, odds of a subsequent pneumonia epizootic were >10 times greater. <span class="hlt">Risk</span> greatly increased when herds were at high density, with nearly 15 times greater odds of a pneumonia epizootic compared to when herds were at low density. Odds of a pneumonia epizootic also appeared to decrease following increased spring precipitation (odds = 0.41 per unit increase, global  = 100.18% and SD = 26.97%). <span class="hlt">Risk</span> was not associated with number of federal sheep and goat allotments, proximity to nearest herds of bighorn sheep, ratio of rams to ewes, percentage of average winter precipitation, or whether herds were of native versus mixed</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24125803','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24125803"><span id="translatedtitle">Generalized nonlinear <span class="hlt">models</span> for rear-end crash <span class="hlt">risk</span> analysis.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Lao, Yunteng; Zhang, Guohui; Wang, Yinhai; Milton, John</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>A generalized nonlinear <span class="hlt">model</span> (GNM)-based approach for <span class="hlt">modeling</span> highway rear-end crash <span class="hlt">risk</span> is formulated using Washington State traffic safety data. Previous studies majorly focused on causal factor identification and crash <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">modeling</span> using Generalized linear <span class="hlt">Models</span> (GLMs), such as Poisson regression, Logistic regression, etc. However, their basic assumption of a generalized linear relationship between the dependent variable (for example, crash rate) and independent variables (for example, contribute factors to crashes) established via a link function can be often violated in reality. Consequently, the GLM-based <span class="hlt">modeling</span> results could provide biased findings and conclusions. In this research, a GNM-based approach is developed to utilize a nonlinear regression function to better elaborate non-monotonic relationships between the independent and dependent variables using the rear end accident data collected from 10 highway routes from 2002 through 2006. The results show for example that truck percentage and grade have a parabolic impact: they increase crash <span class="hlt">risks</span> initially, but decrease them after the certain thresholds. Such non-monotonic relationships cannot be captured by regular GLMs which further demonstrate the flexibility of GNM-based approaches in the nonlinear relationship among data and providing more reasonable explanations. The superior GNM-based <span class="hlt">model</span> interpretations help better understand the parabolic impacts of some specific contributing factors for selecting and evaluating rear-end crash safety improvement plans. PMID:24125803</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/912915','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/912915"><span id="translatedtitle">USING COPULAS TO <span class="hlt">MODEL</span> DEPENDENCE IN SIMULATION <span class="hlt">RISK</span> ASSESSMENT</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Dana L. Kelly</p> <p>2007-11-01</p> <p>Typical engineering systems in applications with high failure consequences such as nuclear reactor plants often employ redundancy and diversity of equipment in an effort to lower the probability of failure and therefore <span class="hlt">risk</span>. However, it has long been recognized that dependencies exist in these redundant and diverse systems. Some dependencies, such as common sources of electrical power, are typically captured in the logic structure of the <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">model</span>. Others, usually referred to as intercomponent dependencies, are treated implicitly by introducing one or more statistical parameters into the <span class="hlt">model</span>. Such common-cause failure <span class="hlt">models</span> have limitations in a simulation environment. In addition, substantial subjectivity is associated with parameter estimation for these <span class="hlt">models</span>. This paper describes an approach in which system performance is simulated by drawing samples from the joint distributions of dependent variables. The approach relies on the notion of a copula distribution, a notion which has been employed by the actuarial community for ten years or more, but which has seen only limited application in technological <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment. The paper also illustrates how equipment failure data can be used in a Bayesian framework to estimate the parameter values in the copula <span class="hlt">model</span>. This approach avoids much of the subjectivity required to estimate parameters in traditional common-cause failure <span class="hlt">models</span>. Simulation examples are presented for failures in time. The open-source software package R is used to perform the simulations. The open-source software package WinBUGS is used to perform the Bayesian inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20055976','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20055976"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Modeling</span> logistic performance in quantitative microbial <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Rijgersberg, Hajo; Tromp, Seth; Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke</p> <p>2010-01-01</p> <p>In quantitative microbial <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment (QMRA), food safety in the food chain is <span class="hlt">modeled</span> and simulated. In general, prevalences, concentrations, and numbers of microorganisms in media are investigated in the different steps from farm to fork. The underlying rates and conditions (such as storage times, temperatures, gas conditions, and their distributions) are determined. However, the logistic chain with its queues (storages, shelves) and mechanisms for ordering products is usually not taken into account. As a consequence, storage times-mutually dependent in successive steps in the chain-cannot be described adequately. This may have a great impact on the tails of <span class="hlt">risk</span> distributions. Because food safety <span class="hlt">risks</span> are generally very small, it is crucial to <span class="hlt">model</span> the tails of (underlying) distributions as accurately as possible. Logistic performance can be <span class="hlt">modeled</span> by describing the underlying planning and scheduling mechanisms in discrete-event <span class="hlt">modeling</span>. This is common practice in operations research, specifically in supply chain management. In this article, we present the application of discrete-event <span class="hlt">modeling</span> in the context of a QMRA for Listeria monocytogenes in fresh-cut iceberg lettuce. We show the potential value of discrete-event <span class="hlt">modeling</span> in QMRA by calculating logistic interventions (modifications in the logistic chain) and determining their significance with respect to food safety. PMID:20055976</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1981wec..rept.....N','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1981wec..rept.....N"><span id="translatedtitle">Development of distribution system reliability and <span class="hlt">risk</span> analysis <span class="hlt">models</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Northcote-Green, J. E. D.; Vismor, T. D.; Brooks, C. L.</p> <p>1981-08-01</p> <p>The overall objectives of a research project were to: determine distribution reliability assessment methods currently used by the industry; develop a general outage reporting scheme suitable for a wide variety of distributing utilities (reliability <span class="hlt">model</span>); develop a <span class="hlt">model</span> for predicting the reliability of future system configurations (<span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">model</span>); and compile a handbook of reliability assessment methods designed specifically for use by the practicing distribution engineer. Emphasis was placed on compiling and organizing reliability assessment techniques presently used by the industry. The project examined reliability evaluation from two perspectives: historical and predictive assessment. Two reliability assessment <span class="hlt">models</span>, HISRAM - the historical reliability assessment <span class="hlt">model</span> and PRAM - the predictive reliability assessment <span class="hlt">model</span> were developed. Each <span class="hlt">model</span> was tested in a utility environment by the Duquesne Light Company and the Public Service Electric and Gas Company of New Jersey. A survey of 56 diverse utilities served as a basis for examining current distribution reliability assessment practices in the electric power industry.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20050182114&hterms=human+mutations&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D10%26Ntt%3Dhuman%2Bmutations','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20050182114&hterms=human+mutations&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D10%26Ntt%3Dhuman%2Bmutations"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Modeling</span> of Radiation <span class="hlt">Risks</span> for Human Space Missions</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Fletcher, Graham</p> <p>2004-01-01</p> <p>Prior to any human space flight, calculations of radiation <span class="hlt">risks</span> are used to determine the acceptable scope of astronaut activity. Using the supercomputing facilities at NASA Ames Research Center, Ames researchers have determined the damage probabilities of DNA functional groups by space radiation. The data supercede those used in the current Monte Carlo <span class="hlt">model</span> for <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment. One example is the reaction of DNA with hydroxyl radical produced by the interaction of highly energetic particles from space radiation with water molecules in the human body. This reaction is considered an important cause of DNA mutations, although its mechanism is not well understood.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/218413','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/218413"><span id="translatedtitle">Reducing uncertainty in <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">modeling</span> for methylmercury exposure</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Ponce, R.; Egeland, G.; Middaugh, J.; Lee, R.</p> <p>1995-12-31</p> <p>The biomagnification and bioaccumulation of methylmercury in marine species represents a challenge for <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment related to the consumption of subsistence foods in Alaska. Because of the profound impact that food consumption advisories have on indigenous peoples seeking to preserve a way of life, there is a need to reduce uncertainty in <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment. Thus, research was initiated to reduce the uncertainty in assessing the health <span class="hlt">risks</span> associated with the consumption of subsistence foods. Because marine subsistence foods typically contain elevated levels of methylmercury, preliminary research efforts have focused on methylmercury as the principal chemical of concern. Of particular interest are the antagonistic effects of selenium on methylmercury toxicity. Because of this antagonism, methylmercury exposure through the consumption of marine mammal meat (with high selenium) may not be as toxic as comparable exposures through other sources of dietary intake, such as in the contaminated bread episode of Iraq (containing relatively low selenium). This hypothesis is supported by animal experiments showing reduced toxicity of methylmercury associated with marine mammal meat, by the antagonistic influence of selenium on methylmercury toxicity, and by negative clinical findings in adult populations exposed to methylmercury through a marine diet not subject to industrial contamination. Exploratory <span class="hlt">model</span> development is underway to identify potential improvements and applications of current deterministic and probabilistic <span class="hlt">models</span>, particularly by incorporating selenium as an antagonist in <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">modeling</span> methods.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/3375502','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/3375502"><span id="translatedtitle">Mental <span class="hlt">models</span> in <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment: informing people about drugs.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Jungermann, H; Schütz, H; Thüring, M</p> <p>1988-03-01</p> <p>One way to communicate about the <span class="hlt">risks</span> of drugs is through the use of package inserts. The problems associated with this medium of informing patients have been investigated by several researchers who found that people require information about drugs they are using, including extensive <span class="hlt">risk</span> information, and that they are willing to take this information into account in their usage of drugs. But empirical results also show that people easily misinterpret the information given. A conceptual framework is proposed that might be used for better understanding the cognitive processes involved in such a type of <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment and communication. It is based on the idea that people develop, through experience, a mental <span class="hlt">model</span> of how a drug works, which effects it might produce, that contraindications have to be considered, etc. This mental <span class="hlt">model</span> is "run" when a specific package insert has been read and a specific question arises such as, for example, whether certain symptoms can be explained as normal or whether they require special attention and action. We argue that the mental <span class="hlt">model</span> approach offers a useful perspective for examining how people understand package inserts, and consequently for improving their content and design. The approach promises to be equally useful for other aspects of <span class="hlt">risk</span> analysis that are dependent upon human judgment and decision making, e.g., threat diagnosis and human reliability analysis. PMID:3375502</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20140005478&hterms=climate+change&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D50%26Ntt%3Dclimate%2Bchange','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20140005478&hterms=climate+change&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D50%26Ntt%3Dclimate%2Bchange"><span id="translatedtitle">Achieving Climate Change <span class="hlt">Absolute</span> Accuracy in Orbit</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Wielicki, Bruce A.; Young, D. F.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Thome, K. J; Leroy, S.; Corliss, J.; Anderson, J. G.; Ao, C. O.; Bantges, R.; Best, F.; Bowman, K.; Brindley, H.; Butler, J. J.; Collins, W.; Dykema, J. A.; Doelling, D. R.; Feldman, D. R.; Fox, N.; Huang, X.; Holz, R.; Huang, Y.; Jennings, D.; Jin, Z.; Johnson, D. G.; Jucks, K.; Kato, S.; Kratz, D. P.; Liu, X.; Lukashin, C.; Mannucci, A. J.; Phojanamongkolkij, N.; Roithmayr, C. M.; Sandford, S.; Taylor, P. C.; Xiong, X.</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>The Climate <span class="hlt">Absolute</span> Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) mission will provide a calibration laboratory in orbit for the purpose of accurately measuring and attributing climate change. CLARREO measurements establish new climate change benchmarks with high <span class="hlt">absolute</span> radiometric accuracy and high statistical confidence across a wide range of essential climate variables. CLARREO's inherently high <span class="hlt">absolute</span> accuracy will be verified and traceable on orbit to Système Internationale (SI) units. The benchmarks established by CLARREO will be critical for assessing changes in the Earth system and climate <span class="hlt">model</span> predictive capabilities for decades into the future as society works to meet the challenge of optimizing strategies for mitigating and adapting to climate change. The CLARREO benchmarks are derived from measurements of the Earth's thermal infrared spectrum (5-50 micron), the spectrum of solar radiation reflected by the Earth and its atmosphere (320-2300 nm), and radio occultation refractivity from which accurate temperature profiles are derived. The mission has the ability to provide new spectral fingerprints of climate change, as well as to provide the first orbiting radiometer with accuracy sufficient to serve as the reference transfer standard for other space sensors, in essence serving as a "NIST [National Institute of Standards and Technology] in orbit." CLARREO will greatly improve the accuracy and relevance of a wide range of space-borne instruments for decadal climate change. Finally, CLARREO has developed new metrics and methods for determining the accuracy requirements of climate observations for a wide range of climate variables and uncertainty sources. These methods should be useful for improving our understanding of observing requirements for most climate change observations.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26702383','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26702383"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Modelling</span> of fire count data: fire disaster <span class="hlt">risk</span> in Ghana.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Boadi, Caleb; Harvey, Simon K; Gyeke-Dako, Agyapomaa</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Stochastic dynamics involved in ecological count data require distribution fitting procedures to <span class="hlt">model</span> and make informed judgments. The study provides empirical research, focused on the provision of an early warning system and a spatial graph that can detect societal fire <span class="hlt">risks</span>. It offers an opportunity for communities, organizations, <span class="hlt">risk</span> managers, actuaries and governments to be aware of, and understand fire <span class="hlt">risks</span>, so that they will increase the direct tackling of the threats posed by fire. Statistical distribution fitting method that best helps identify the stochastic dynamics of fire count data is used. The aim is to provide a fire-prediction <span class="hlt">model</span> and fire spatial graph for observed fire count data. An empirical probability distribution <span class="hlt">model</span> is fitted to the fire count data and compared to the theoretical probability distribution of the stochastic process of fire count data. The distribution fitted to the fire frequency count data helps identify the class of <span class="hlt">models</span> that are exhibited by the fire and provides time leading decisions. The research suggests that fire frequency and loss (fire fatalities) count data in Ghana are best <span class="hlt">modelled</span> with a Negative Binomial Distribution. The spatial map of observed fire frequency and fatality measured over 5 years (2007-2011) offers in this study a first regional assessment of fire frequency and fire fatality in Ghana. PMID:26702383</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/15020488','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/15020488"><span id="translatedtitle">Framework for <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems: <span class="hlt">Modeling</span> Individual Steps of a <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Assessment Process</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Shah, Anuj; Castleton, Karl J.; Hoopes, Bonnie L.</p> <p>2004-06-01</p> <p>The study of the release and effects of chemicals in the environment and their associated <span class="hlt">risks</span> to humans is central to public and private decision making. FRAMES 1.X, Framework for <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems, is a systems <span class="hlt">modeling</span> software platform, developed by PNNL, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, that helps scientists study the release and effects of chemicals on a source to outcome basis, create environmental <span class="hlt">models</span> for similar <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment and management problems. The unique aspect of FRAMES is to dynamically introduce software modules representing individual components of a <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment (e.g., source release of contaminants, fate and transport in various environmental media, exposure, etc.) within a software framework, manipulate their attributes and run simulations to obtain results. This paper outlines the fundamental constituents of FRAMES 2.X, an enhanced version of FRAMES 1.X, that greatly improve the ability of the module developers to “plug” their self-developed software modules into the system. The basic design, the underlying principles and a discussion of the guidelines for module developers are presented.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18304118','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18304118"><span id="translatedtitle">A flexible count data regression <span class="hlt">model</span> for <span class="hlt">risk</span> analysis.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Guikema, Seth D; Coffelt, Jeremy P; Goffelt, Jeremy P</p> <p>2008-02-01</p> <p>In many cases, <span class="hlt">risk</span> and reliability analyses involve estimating the probabilities of discrete events such as hardware failures and occurrences of disease or death. There is often additional information in the form of explanatory variables that can be used to help estimate the likelihood of different numbers of events in the future through the use of an appropriate regression <span class="hlt">model</span>, such as a generalized linear <span class="hlt">model</span>. However, existing generalized linear <span class="hlt">models</span> (GLM) are limited in their ability to handle the types of variance structures often encountered in using count data in <span class="hlt">risk</span> and reliability analysis. In particular, standard <span class="hlt">models</span> cannot handle both underdispersed data (variance less than the mean) and overdispersed data (variance greater than the mean) in a single coherent <span class="hlt">modeling</span> framework. This article presents a new GLM based on a reformulation of the Conway-Maxwell Poisson (COM) distribution that is useful for both underdispersed and overdispersed count data and demonstrates this <span class="hlt">model</span> by applying it to the assessment of electric power system reliability. The results show that the proposed COM GLM can provide as good of fits to data as the commonly used existing <span class="hlt">models</span> for overdispered data sets while outperforming these commonly used <span class="hlt">models</span> for underdispersed data sets. PMID:18304118</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24662645','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24662645"><span id="translatedtitle">Mouse <span class="hlt">models</span> of osteoarthritis: <span class="hlt">modelling</span> <span class="hlt">risk</span> factors and assessing outcomes.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Fang, Hang; Beier, Frank</p> <p>2014-07-01</p> <p>Osteoarthritis (OA) is a prevalent musculoskeletal disease that results in pain and low quality of life for patients, as well as enormous medical and socioeconomic burdens. The molecular mechanisms responsible for the initiation and progression of OA are still poorly understood. As such, mouse <span class="hlt">models</span> of the disease are having increasingly important roles in OA research owing to the advancements of microsurgical techniques and the use of genetically modified mice, as well as the development of novel assessment tools. In this Review, we discuss available mouse <span class="hlt">models</span> of OA and applicable assessment tools in studies of experimental OA. PMID:24662645</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/9463930','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/9463930"><span id="translatedtitle">The elaboration likelihood <span class="hlt">model</span> and communication about food <span class="hlt">risks</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Frewer, L J; Howard, C; Hedderley, D; Shepherd, R</p> <p>1997-12-01</p> <p>Factors such as hazard type and source credibility have been identified as important in the establishment of effective strategies for <span class="hlt">risk</span> communication. The elaboration likelihood <span class="hlt">model</span> was adapted to investigate the potential impact of hazard type, information source, and persuasive content of information on individual engagement in elaborative, or thoughtful, cognitions about <span class="hlt">risk</span> messages. One hundred sixty respondents were allocated to one of eight experimental groups, and the effects of source credibility, persuasive content of information and hazard type were systematically varied. The impact of the different factors on beliefs about the information and elaborative processing examined. Low credibility was particularly important in reducing <span class="hlt">risk</span> perceptions, although persuasive content and hazard type were also influential in determining whether elaborative processing occurred. PMID:9463930</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005AdG.....4....3H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005AdG.....4....3H"><span id="translatedtitle">Agents, Bayes, and Climatic <span class="hlt">Risks</span> - a modular <span class="hlt">modelling</span> approach</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Haas, A.; Jaeger, C.</p> <p>2005-08-01</p> <p>When insurance firms, energy companies, governments, NGOs, and other agents strive to manage climatic <span class="hlt">risks</span>, it is by no way clear what the aggregate outcome should and will be. As a framework for investigating this subject, we present the LAGOM <span class="hlt">model</span> family. It is based on modules depicting learning social agents. For managing climate <span class="hlt">risks</span>, our agents use second order probabilities and update them by means of a Bayesian mechanism while differing in priors and <span class="hlt">risk</span> aversion. The interactions between these modules and the aggregate outcomes of their actions are implemented using further modules. The software system is implemented as a series of parallel processes using the CIAMn approach. It is possible to couple modules irrespective of the language they are written in, the operating system under which they are run, and the physical location of the machine.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li class="active"><span>17</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_17 --> <div id="page_18" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li class="active"><span>18</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="341"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CFR-2011-title42-vol1/pdf/CFR-2011-title42-vol1-sec81-10.pdf','CFR2011'); return false;" href="https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CFR-2011-title42-vol1/pdf/CFR-2011-title42-vol1-sec81-10.pdf"><span id="translatedtitle">42 CFR 81.10 - Use of cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment <span class="hlt">models</span> in NIOSH IREP.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/browse/collectionCfr.action?selectedYearFrom=2011&page.go=Go">Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR</a></p> <p></p> <p>2011-10-01</p> <p>... 42 Public Health 1 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Use of cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment <span class="hlt">models</span> in NIOSH IREP... <span class="hlt">Risk</span> <span class="hlt">Models</span> Used To Estimate Probability of Causation § 81.10 Use of cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment <span class="hlt">models</span> in... tables were developed from analyses of cancer mortality <span class="hlt">risk</span> among the Japanese atomic bomb...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CFR-2013-title42-vol1/pdf/CFR-2013-title42-vol1-sec81-10.pdf','CFR2013'); return false;" href="https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CFR-2013-title42-vol1/pdf/CFR-2013-title42-vol1-sec81-10.pdf"><span id="translatedtitle">42 CFR 81.10 - Use of cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment <span class="hlt">models</span> in NIOSH IREP.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/browse/collectionCfr.action?selectedYearFrom=2013&page.go=Go">Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR</a></p> <p></p> <p>2013-10-01</p> <p>... 42 Public Health 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Use of cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment <span class="hlt">models</span> in NIOSH IREP... <span class="hlt">Risk</span> <span class="hlt">Models</span> Used To Estimate Probability of Causation § 81.10 Use of cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment <span class="hlt">models</span> in... tables were developed from analyses of cancer mortality <span class="hlt">risk</span> among the Japanese atomic bomb...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CFR-2010-title42-vol1/pdf/CFR-2010-title42-vol1-sec81-10.pdf','CFR'); return false;" href="https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CFR-2010-title42-vol1/pdf/CFR-2010-title42-vol1-sec81-10.pdf"><span id="translatedtitle">42 CFR 81.10 - Use of cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment <span class="hlt">models</span> in NIOSH IREP.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/browse/collectionCfr.action?selectedYearFrom=2010&page.go=Go">Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR</a></p> <p></p> <p>2010-10-01</p> <p>... 42 Public Health 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Use of cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment <span class="hlt">models</span> in NIOSH IREP... <span class="hlt">Risk</span> <span class="hlt">Models</span> Used To Estimate Probability of Causation § 81.10 Use of cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment <span class="hlt">models</span> in... tables were developed from analyses of cancer mortality <span class="hlt">risk</span> among the Japanese atomic bomb...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CFR-2012-title42-vol1/pdf/CFR-2012-title42-vol1-sec81-10.pdf','CFR2012'); return false;" href="https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CFR-2012-title42-vol1/pdf/CFR-2012-title42-vol1-sec81-10.pdf"><span id="translatedtitle">42 CFR 81.10 - Use of cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment <span class="hlt">models</span> in NIOSH IREP.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/browse/collectionCfr.action?selectedYearFrom=2012&page.go=Go">Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR</a></p> <p></p> <p>2012-10-01</p> <p>... 42 Public Health 1 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Use of cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment <span class="hlt">models</span> in NIOSH IREP... <span class="hlt">Risk</span> <span class="hlt">Models</span> Used To Estimate Probability of Causation § 81.10 Use of cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment <span class="hlt">models</span> in... tables were developed from analyses of cancer mortality <span class="hlt">risk</span> among the Japanese atomic bomb...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CFR-2014-title42-vol1/pdf/CFR-2014-title42-vol1-sec81-10.pdf','CFR2014'); return false;" href="https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CFR-2014-title42-vol1/pdf/CFR-2014-title42-vol1-sec81-10.pdf"><span id="translatedtitle">42 CFR 81.10 - Use of cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment <span class="hlt">models</span> in NIOSH IREP.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/browse/collectionCfr.action?selectedYearFrom=2014&page.go=Go">Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR</a></p> <p></p> <p>2014-10-01</p> <p>... 42 Public Health 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Use of cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment <span class="hlt">models</span> in NIOSH IREP... <span class="hlt">Risk</span> <span class="hlt">Models</span> Used To Estimate Probability of Causation § 81.10 Use of cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment <span class="hlt">models</span> in... tables were developed from analyses of cancer mortality <span class="hlt">risk</span> among the Japanese atomic bomb...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15016469','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15016469"><span id="translatedtitle">Source apportionment of ambient non-methane hydrocarbons in Hong Kong: application of a principal component analysis/<span class="hlt">absolute</span> principal component scores (PCA/APCS) receptor <span class="hlt">model</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Guo, H; Wang, T; Louie, P K K</p> <p>2004-06-01</p> <p>Receptor-oriented source apportionment <span class="hlt">models</span> are often used to identify sources of ambient air pollutants and to estimate source contributions to air pollutant concentrations. In this study, a PCA/APCS <span class="hlt">model</span> was applied to the data on non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) measured from January to December 2001 at two sampling sites: Tsuen Wan (TW) and Central & Western (CW) Toxic Air Pollutants Monitoring Stations in Hong Kong. This multivariate method enables the identification of major air pollution sources along with the quantitative apportionment of each source to pollutant species. The PCA analysis identified four major pollution sources at TW site and five major sources at CW site. The extracted pollution sources included vehicular internal engine combustion with unburned fuel emissions, use of solvent particularly paints, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) or natural gas leakage, and industrial, commercial and domestic sources such as solvents, decoration, fuel combustion, chemical factories and power plants. The results of APCS receptor <span class="hlt">model</span> indicated that 39% and 48% of the total NMHCs mass concentrations measured at CW and TW were originated from vehicle emissions, respectively. 32% and 36.4% of the total NMHCs were emitted from the use of solvent and 11% and 19.4% were apportioned to the LPG or natural gas leakage, respectively. 5.2% and 9% of the total NMHCs mass concentrations were attributed to other industrial, commercial and domestic sources, respectively. It was also found that vehicle emissions and LPG or natural gas leakage were the main sources of C(3)-C(5) alkanes and C(3)-C(5) alkenes while aromatics were predominantly released from paints. Comparison of source contributions to ambient NMHCs at the two sites indicated that the contribution of LPG or natural gas at CW site was almost twice that at TW site. High correlation coefficients (R(2) > 0.8) between the measured and predicted values suggested that the PCA/APCS <span class="hlt">model</span> was applicable for estimation</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/926344','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/926344"><span id="translatedtitle">Development of Standardized Probabilistic <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Assessment <span class="hlt">Models</span> for Shutdown Operations Integrated in SPAR Level 1 <span class="hlt">Model</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>S. T. Khericha; J. Mitman</p> <p>2008-05-01</p> <p>Nuclear plant operating experience and several studies show that the <span class="hlt">risk</span> from shutdown operation during Modes 4, 5, and 6 at pressurized water reactors and Modes 4 and 5 at boiling water reactors can be significant. This paper describes using the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s full-power Standardized Plant Analysis <span class="hlt">Risk</span> (SPAR) <span class="hlt">model</span> as the starting point for development of <span class="hlt">risk</span> evaluation <span class="hlt">models</span> for commercial nuclear power plants. The shutdown <span class="hlt">models</span> are integrated with their respective internal event at-power SPAR <span class="hlt">model</span>. This is accomplished by combining the modified system fault trees from the SPAR full-power <span class="hlt">model</span> with shutdown event tree logic. Preliminary human reliability analysis results indicate that <span class="hlt">risk</span> is dominated by the operator’s ability to correctly diagnose events and initiate systems.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/1043283','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/1043283"><span id="translatedtitle">Low Dose Radiation Cancer <span class="hlt">Risks</span>: Epidemiological and Toxicological <span class="hlt">Models</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>David G. Hoel, PhD</p> <p>2012-04-19</p> <p>The basic purpose of this one year research grant was to extend the two stage clonal expansion <span class="hlt">model</span> (TSCE) of carcinogenesis to exposures other than the usual single acute exposure. The two-stage clonal expansion <span class="hlt">model</span> of carcinogenesis incorporates the biological process of carcinogenesis, which involves two mutations and the clonal proliferation of the intermediate cells, in a stochastic, mathematical way. The current TSCE <span class="hlt">model</span> serves a general purpose of acute exposure <span class="hlt">models</span> but requires numerical computation of both the survival and hazard functions. The primary objective of this research project was to develop the analytical expressions for the survival function and the hazard function of the occurrence of the first cancer cell for acute, continuous and multiple exposure cases within the framework of the piece-wise constant parameter two-stage clonal expansion <span class="hlt">model</span> of carcinogenesis. For acute exposure and multiple exposures of acute series, it is either only allowed to have the first mutation rate vary with the dose, or to have all the parameters be dose dependent; for multiple exposures of continuous exposures, all the parameters are allowed to vary with the dose. With these analytical functions, it becomes easy to evaluate the <span class="hlt">risks</span> of cancer and allows one to deal with the various exposure patterns in cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment. A second objective was to apply the TSCE <span class="hlt">model</span> with varing continuous exposures from the cancer studies of inhaled plutonium in beagle dogs. Using step functions to estimate the retention functions of the pulmonary exposure of plutonium the multiple exposure versions of the TSCE <span class="hlt">model</span> was to be used to estimate the beagle dog lung cancer <span class="hlt">risks</span>. The mathematical equations of the multiple exposure versions of the TSCE <span class="hlt">model</span> were developed. A draft manuscript which is attached provides the results of this mathematical work. The application work using the beagle dog data from plutonium exposure has not been completed due to the fact</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFMNH11A1533S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFMNH11A1533S"><span id="translatedtitle">ByMuR <span class="hlt">model</span>: interaction among <span class="hlt">risks</span> and uncertainty treatment in long-term multi-hazard/<span class="hlt">risk</span> assessments</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Selva, J.</p> <p>2012-12-01</p> <p>Multi-<span class="hlt">risk</span> approaches have been recently proposed to assess and compare different <span class="hlt">risks</span> in the same target area. The key point of multi-<span class="hlt">risk</span> assessments are the development of homogeneous <span class="hlt">risk</span> definitions and the treatment of <span class="hlt">risk</span> interaction. The lack of treatment of interaction may lead to significant biases and thus to erroneous <span class="hlt">risk</span> hierarchization, which is one of primary output of <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessments for decision makers. Within the framework of the Italian project "ByMuR - Bayesian Multi-<span class="hlt">Risk</span> assessment", a formal <span class="hlt">model</span> (ByMuR <span class="hlt">model</span>) to assess multi-<span class="hlt">risk</span> for a target area is under development, aiming (i) to perform multi-<span class="hlt">risk</span> analyses treating interaction between different hazardous phenomena, accounting for possible effects of interaction at hazard, vulnerability and exposure levels, and (ii) to explicitly account for all uncertainties (aleatory and epistemic) through a Bayesian approach, allowing a meaningful comparison among different <span class="hlt">risks</span>. The <span class="hlt">model</span> is meant to be general, but it is targeted to the assessment of volcanic, seismic and tsunami <span class="hlt">risks</span> for the city of Naples (Italy). Here, it is presented the preliminary development of the ByMuR <span class="hlt">model</span>. The applicability of the methodology is demonstrated through illustrative examples, in which the effects of uncertainties and the bias in single-<span class="hlt">risk</span> estimation induced by the assumption of independence among <span class="hlt">risks</span> are explicitly assessed. An extensive application of this methodology at regional and sub-regional scale would allow to identify where a given interaction has significant effects in long-term <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessments, and thus when multi-<span class="hlt">risk</span> analyses should be considered in order to provide unbiased <span class="hlt">risk</span> estimations.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/122676444/abstract','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/122676444/abstract"><span id="translatedtitle">Field evaluation of an avian <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment <span class="hlt">model</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Vyas, N.B.; Spann, J.W.; Hulse, C.S.; Borges, S.L.; Bennett, R.S.; Torrez, M.; Williams, B.I.; Leffel, R.</p> <p>2006-01-01</p> <p>We conducted two laboratory subacute dietary toxicity tests and one outdoor subacute dietary toxicity test to determine the effectiveness of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's deterministic <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment <span class="hlt">model</span> for evaluating the potential of adverse effects to birds in the field. We tested technical-grade diazinon and its D Z N- 50W (50% diazinon active ingredient wettable powder) formulation on Canada goose (Branta canadensis) goslings. Brain acetylcholinesterase activity was measured, and the feathers and skin, feet. and gastrointestinal contents were analyzed for diazinon residues. The dose-response curves showed that diazinon was significantly more toxic to goslings in the outdoor test than in the laboratory tests. The deterministic <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment method identified the potential for <span class="hlt">risk</span> to birds in general, but the factors associated with extrapolating from the laboratory to the field, and from the laboratory test species to other species, resulted in the underestimation of <span class="hlt">risk</span> to the goslings. The present study indicates that laboratory-based <span class="hlt">risk</span> quotients should be interpreted with caution.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26284999','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26284999"><span id="translatedtitle">Social <span class="hlt">models</span> of HIV <span class="hlt">risk</span> among young adults in Lesotho.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Bulled, Nicola L</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Extensive research over the past 30 years has revealed that individual and social determinants impact HIV <span class="hlt">risk</span>. Even so, prevention efforts focus primarily on individual behaviour change, with little recognition of the dynamic interplay of individual and social environment factors that further exacerbate <span class="hlt">risk</span> engagement. Drawing on long-term research with young adults in Lesotho, I examine how social environment factors contribute to HIV <span class="hlt">risk</span>. During preliminary ethnographic analysis, I developed novel scales to measure social control, adoption of modernity, and HIV knowledge. In survey research, I examined the effects of individual characteristics (i.e., socioeconomic status, HIV knowledge, adoption of modernity) and social environment (i.e., social control) on HIV <span class="hlt">risk</span> behaviours. In addition, I measured the impact of altered environments by taking advantage of an existing situation whereby young adults attending a national college are assigned to either a main campus in a metropolitan setting or a satellite campus in a remote setting, irrespective of the environment in which they were socialised as youth. This arbitrary assignment process generates four distinct groups of young adults with altered or constant environments. Regression <span class="hlt">models</span> show that lower levels of perceived social control and greater adoption of modernity are associated with HIV <span class="hlt">risk</span>, controlling for other factors. The impact of social control and modernity varies with environment dynamics. PMID:26284999</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/1126378','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/1126378"><span id="translatedtitle">Making <span class="hlt">Risk</span> <span class="hlt">Models</span> Operational for Situational Awareness and Decision Support</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Paulson, Patrick R.; Coles, Garill A.; Shoemaker, Steven V.</p> <p>2012-06-12</p> <p>Modernization of nuclear power operations control systems, in particular the move to digital control systems, creates an opportunity to modernize existing legacy infrastructure and extend plant life. We describe here decision support tools that allow the assessment of different facets of <span class="hlt">risk</span> and support the optimization of available resources to reduce <span class="hlt">risk</span> as plants are upgraded and maintained. This methodology could become an integrated part of the design review process and a part of the operations management systems. The methodology can be applied to the design of new reactors such as small nuclear reactors (SMR), and be helpful in assessing the <span class="hlt">risks</span> of different configurations of the reactors. Our tool provides a low cost evaluation of alternative configurations and provides an expanded safety analysis by considering scenarios while early in the implementation cycle where cost impacts can be minimized. The effects of failures can be <span class="hlt">modeled</span> and thoroughly vetted to understand their potential impact on <span class="hlt">risk</span>. The process and tools presented here allow for an integrated assessment of <span class="hlt">risk</span> by supporting traditional defense in depth approaches while taking into consideration the insertion of new digital instrument and control systems.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2016JCAP...08..060V&link_type=ABSTRACT','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2016JCAP...08..060V&link_type=ABSTRACT"><span id="translatedtitle">Cosmology with negative <span class="hlt">absolute</span> temperatures</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Vieira, J. P. P.; Byrnes, Christian T.; Lewis, Antony</p> <p>2016-08-01</p> <p>Negative <span class="hlt">absolute</span> temperatures (NAT) are an exotic thermodynamical consequence of quantum physics which has been known since the 1950's (having been achieved in the lab on a number of occasions). Recently, the work of Braun et al. [1] has rekindled interest in negative temperatures and hinted at a possibility of using NAT systems in the lab as dark energy analogues. This paper goes one step further, looking into the cosmological consequences of the existence of a NAT component in the Universe. NAT-dominated expanding Universes experience a borderline phantom expansion (w < ‑1) with no Big Rip, and their contracting counterparts are forced to bounce after the energy density becomes sufficiently large. Both scenarios might be used to solve horizon and flatness problems analogously to standard inflation and bouncing cosmologies. We discuss the difficulties in obtaining and ending a NAT-dominated epoch, and possible ways of obtaining density perturbations with an acceptable spectrum.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/7945136','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/7945136"><span id="translatedtitle">Survivorship <span class="hlt">models</span> for estimating the <span class="hlt">risk</span> of decompression sickness.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Kumar, K V; Powell, M R</p> <p>1994-07-01</p> <p>Several approaches have been used for <span class="hlt">modeling</span> the incidence of decompression sickness (DCS) such as Hill's dose-response and logistic regression. Most of these methods do not include the time-to-onset information in the <span class="hlt">model</span>. Survival analysis (failure time analysis) is appropriate when the time to onset of an event is of interest. The applicability of survival analysis for <span class="hlt">modeling</span> the <span class="hlt">risk</span> of DCS is illustrated by using data obtained from hypobaric chamber exposures simulating extravehicular activities (n = 426). Univariate analysis of incidence-free survival proportions were obtained for Doppler-detectable circulating microbubbles (CMB), symptoms of DCS and test aborts. A log-linear failure time regression <span class="hlt">model</span> with 360-min half-time tissue ratio (TR) as covariate was constructed, and estimated probabilities for various TR values were calculated. Further regression analysis by including CMB status in this <span class="hlt">model</span> showed significant improvement (p < 0.05) in the estimation of DCS over the previous <span class="hlt">model</span>. Since DCS is dependent on the exposure pressure as well as the duration of exposure, we recommend the use of survival analysis for <span class="hlt">modeling</span> the <span class="hlt">risk</span> of DCS. PMID:7945136</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4585292','PMC'); return false;" href="http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4585292"><span id="translatedtitle">An animal <span class="hlt">model</span> of differential genetic <span class="hlt">risk</span> for methamphetamine intake</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Phillips, Tamara J.; Shabani, Shkelzen</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>The question of whether genetic factors contribute to <span class="hlt">risk</span> for methamphetamine (MA) use and dependence has not been intensively investigated. Compared to human populations, genetic animal <span class="hlt">models</span> offer the advantages of control over genetic family history and drug exposure. Using selective breeding, we created lines of mice that differ in genetic <span class="hlt">risk</span> for voluntary MA intake and identified the chromosomal addresses of contributory genes. A quantitative trait locus was identified on chromosome 10 that accounts for more than 50% of the genetic variance in MA intake in the selected mouse lines. In addition, behavioral and physiological screening identified differences corresponding with <span class="hlt">risk</span> for MA intake that have generated hypotheses that are testable in humans. Heightened sensitivity to aversive and certain physiological effects of MA, such as MA-induced reduction in body temperature, are hallmarks of mice bred for low MA intake. Furthermore, unlike MA-avoiding mice, MA-preferring mice are sensitive to rewarding and reinforcing MA effects, and to MA-induced increases in brain extracellular dopamine levels. Gene expression analyses implicate the importance of a network enriched in transcription factor genes, some of which regulate the mu opioid receptor gene, Oprm1, in <span class="hlt">risk</span> for MA use. Neuroimmune factors appear to play a role in differential response to MA between the mice bred for high and low intake. In addition, chromosome 10 candidate gene studies provide strong support for a trace amine-associated receptor 1 gene, Taar1, polymorphism in <span class="hlt">risk</span> for MA intake. MA is a trace amine-associated receptor 1 (TAAR1) agonist, and a non-functional Taar1 allele segregates with high MA consumption. Thus, reduced TAAR1 function has the potential to increase <span class="hlt">risk</span> for MA use. Overall, existing findings support the MA drinking lines as a powerful <span class="hlt">model</span> for identifying genetic factors involved in determining <span class="hlt">risk</span> for harmful MA use. Future directions include the development of a</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20738819','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20738819"><span id="translatedtitle">The impact of consumer phase <span class="hlt">models</span> in microbial <span class="hlt">risk</span> analysis.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Nauta, Maarten; Christensen, Bjarke</p> <p>2011-02-01</p> <p>In quantitative microbiological <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment (QMRA), the consumer phase <span class="hlt">model</span> (CPM) describes the part of the food chain between purchase of the food product at retail and exposure. Construction of a CPM is complicated by the large variation in consumer food handling practices and a limited availability of data. Therefore, several subjective (simplifying) assumptions have to be made when a CPM is constructed, but with a single CPM their impact on the QMRA results is unclear. We therefore compared the performance of eight published CPMs for Campylobacter in broiler meat in an example of a QMRA, where all the CPMs were analyzed using one single input distribution of concentrations at retail, and the same dose-response relationship. It was found that, between CPMs, there may be a considerable difference in the estimated probability of illness per serving. However, the estimated relative <span class="hlt">risk</span> reductions are less different for scenarios <span class="hlt">modeling</span> the implementation of control measures. For control measures affecting the Campylobacter prevalence, the relative <span class="hlt">risk</span> is proportional irrespective of the CPM used. However, for control measures affecting the concentration the CPMs show some difference in the estimated relative <span class="hlt">risk</span>. This difference is largest for scenarios where the aim is to remove the highly contaminated portion from human exposure. Given these results, we conclude that for many purposes it is not necessary to develop a new detailed CPM for each new QMRA. However, more observational data on consumer food handling practices and their impact on microbial transfer and survival are needed to generalize this conclusion. PMID:20738819</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015PhFl...27a4110R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015PhFl...27a4110R"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Absolute</span>/convective instability of planar viscoelastic jets</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Ray, Prasun K.; Zaki, Tamer A.</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Spatiotemporal linear stability analysis is used to investigate the onset of local <span class="hlt">absolute</span> instability in planar viscoelastic jets. The influence of viscoelasticity in dilute polymer solutions is <span class="hlt">modeled</span> with the FENE-P constitutive equation which requires the specification of a non-dimensional polymer relaxation time (the Weissenberg number, We), the maximum polymer extensibility, L, and the ratio of solvent and solution viscosities, β. A two-parameter family of velocity profiles is used as the base state with the parameter, S, controlling the amount of co- or counter-flow while N-1 sets the thickness of the jet shear layer. We examine how the variation of these fluid and flow parameters affects the minimum value of S at which the flow becomes locally <span class="hlt">absolutely</span> unstable. Initially setting the Reynolds number to Re = 500, we find that the first varicose jet-column mode dictates the presence of <span class="hlt">absolute</span> instability, and increasing the Weissenberg number produces important changes in the nature of the instability. The region of <span class="hlt">absolute</span> instability shifts towards thin shear layers, and the amount of back-flow needed for <span class="hlt">absolute</span> instability decreases (i.e., the influence of viscoelasticity is destabilizing). Additionally, when We is sufficiently large and N-1 is sufficiently small, single-stream jets become <span class="hlt">absolutely</span> unstable. Numerical experiments with approximate equations show that both the polymer and solvent contributions to the stress become destabilizing when the scaled shear rate, η = /W e dU¯1/dx 2L ( /d U ¯ 1 d x 2 is the base-state velocity gradient), is sufficiently large. These qualitative trends are largely unchanged when the Reynolds number is reduced; however, the relative importance of the destabilizing stresses increases tangibly. Consequently, <span class="hlt">absolute</span> instability is substantially enhanced, and single-stream jets become <span class="hlt">absolutely</span> unstable over a sizable portion of the parameter space.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70174209','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70174209"><span id="translatedtitle">Fire <span class="hlt">risk</span> in San Diego County, California: A weighted Bayesian <span class="hlt">model</span> approach</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Kolden, Crystal A.; Weigel, Timothy J.</p> <p>2007-01-01</p> <p>Fire <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">models</span> are widely utilized to mitigate wildfire hazards, but <span class="hlt">models</span> are often based on expert opinions of less understood fire-ignition and spread processes. In this study, we used an empirically derived weights-of-evidence <span class="hlt">model</span> to assess what factors produce fire ignitions east of San Diego, California. We created and validated a dynamic <span class="hlt">model</span> of fire-ignition <span class="hlt">risk</span> based on land characteristics and existing fire-ignition history data, and predicted ignition <span class="hlt">risk</span> for a future urbanization scenario. We then combined our empirical ignition-<span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">model</span> with a fuzzy fire behavior-<span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">model</span> developed by wildfire experts to create a hybrid <span class="hlt">model</span> of overall fire <span class="hlt">risk</span>. We found that roads influence fire ignitions and that future growth will increase <span class="hlt">risk</span> in new rural development areas. We conclude that empirically derived <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">models</span> and hybrid <span class="hlt">models</span> offer an alternative method to assess current and future fire <span class="hlt">risk</span> based on management actions.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2002EEEV....1..145D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2002EEEV....1..145D"><span id="translatedtitle">Engineering <span class="hlt">models</span> for catastrophe <span class="hlt">risk</span> and their application to insurance</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Dong, Weimin</p> <p>2002-06-01</p> <p>Internationally earthquake insurance, like all other insurance (fire, auto), adopted actuarial approach in the past, which is, based on historical loss experience to determine insurance rate. Due to the fact that earthquake is a rare event with severe consequence, irrational determination of premium rate and lack of understanding scale of potential loss led to many insurance companies insolvent after Northridge earthquake in 1994. Along with recent advances in earth science, computer science and engineering, computerized loss estimation methodologies based on first principles have been developed to the point that losses from destructive earthquakes can be quantified with reasonable accuracy using scientific <span class="hlt">modeling</span> techniques. This paper intends to introduce how engineering <span class="hlt">models</span> can assist to quantify earthquake <span class="hlt">risk</span> and how insurance industry can use this information to manage their <span class="hlt">risk</span> in the United States and abroad.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012EGUGA..14.6855M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012EGUGA..14.6855M"><span id="translatedtitle">FIRESTORM: <span class="hlt">Modelling</span> the water quality <span class="hlt">risk</span> of wildfire.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Mason, C. I.; Sheridan, G. J.; Smith, H. G.; Jones, O.; Chong, D.; Tolhurst, K.</p> <p>2012-04-01</p> <p>Following wildfire, loss of vegetation and changes to soil properties may result in decreases in infiltration rates, less rainfall interception, and higher overland flow velocities. Rainfall events affecting burn areas before vegetation recovers can cause high magnitude erosion events that impact on downstream water quality. For cities and towns that rely upon fire-prone forest catchments for water supply, wildfire impacts on water quality represent a credible <span class="hlt">risk</span> to water supply security. Quantifying the <span class="hlt">risk</span> associated with the occurrence of wildfires and the magnitude of water quality impacts has important implications for managing water supplies. At present, no suitable integrative <span class="hlt">model</span> exists that considers the probabilistic nature of system inputs as well as the range of processes and scales involved in this problem. We present FIRESTORM, a new <span class="hlt">model</span> currently in development that aims to determine the range of sediment and associated contaminant loads that may be delivered to water supply reservoirs from the combination of wildfire and subsequent rainfall events. This Monte Carlo <span class="hlt">model</span> incorporates the probabilistic nature of fire ignition, fire weather and rainfall, and includes deterministic <span class="hlt">models</span> for fire behaviour and locally dominant erosion processes. FIRESTORM calculates the magnitude and associated annual <span class="hlt">risk</span> of catchment-scale sediment loads associated with the occurrence of wildfire and rainfall generated by two rain event types. The two event types are localised, high intensity, short-duration convective storms, and widespread, longer duration synoptic-scale rainfall events. Initial application and testing of the <span class="hlt">model</span> will focus on the two main reservoirs supplying water to Melbourne, Australia, both of which are situated in forest catchments vulnerable to wildfire. Probabilistic fire ignition and weather scenarios have been combined using 40 years of fire records and weather observations. These are used to select from a dataset of over 80</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li class="active"><span>18</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_18 --> <div id="page_19" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li class="active"><span>19</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="361"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3317240','PMC'); return false;" href="http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3317240"><span id="translatedtitle">Application of Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic <span class="hlt">Models</span> in Chemical <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Assessment</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Mumtaz, Moiz; Fisher, Jeffrey; Blount, Benjamin; Ruiz, Patricia</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>Post-exposure <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment of chemical and environmental stressors is a public health challenge. Linking exposure to health outcomes is a 4-step process: exposure assessment, hazard identification, dose response assessment, and <span class="hlt">risk</span> characterization. This process is increasingly adopting “in silico” tools such as physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) <span class="hlt">models</span> to fine-tune exposure assessments and determine internal doses in target organs/tissues. Many excellent PBPK <span class="hlt">models</span> have been developed. But most, because of their scientific sophistication, have found limited field application—health assessors rarely use them. Over the years, government agencies, stakeholders/partners, and the scientific community have attempted to use these <span class="hlt">models</span> or their underlying principles in combination with other practical procedures. During the past two decades, through cooperative agreements and contracts at several research and higher education institutions, ATSDR funded translational research has encouraged the use of various types of <span class="hlt">models</span>. Such collaborative efforts have led to the development and use of transparent and user-friendly <span class="hlt">models</span>. The “human PBPK <span class="hlt">model</span> toolkit” is one such project. While not necessarily state of the art, this toolkit is sufficiently accurate for screening purposes. Highlighted in this paper are some selected examples of environmental and occupational exposure assessments of chemicals and their mixtures. PMID:22523493</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24710304','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24710304"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Modeling</span> the <span class="hlt">risk</span> of secondary malignancies after radiotherapy.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Schneider, Uwe</p> <p>2011-01-01</p> <p>In developed countries, more than half of all cancer patients receive radiotherapy at some stage in the management of their disease. However, a radiation-induced secondary malignancy can be the price of success if the primary cancer is cured or at least controlled. Therefore, there is increasing concern regarding radiation-related second cancer <span class="hlt">risks</span> in long-term radiotherapy survivors and a corresponding need to be able to predict cancer <span class="hlt">risks</span> at high radiation doses. Of particular interest are second cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span> estimates for new radiation treatment modalities such as intensity modulated radiotherapy, intensity modulated arc-therapy, proton and heavy ion radiotherapy. The long term <span class="hlt">risks</span> from such modern radiotherapy treatment techniques have not yet been determined and are unlikely to become apparent for many years, due to the long latency time for solid tumor induction. Most information on the dose-response of radiation-induced cancer is derived from data on the A-bomb survivors who were exposed to γ-rays and neutrons. Since, for radiation protection purposes, the dose span of main interest is between zero and one Gy, the analysis of the A-bomb survivors is usually focused on this range. With increasing cure rates, estimates of cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span> for doses larger than one Gy are becoming more important for radiotherapy patients. Therefore in this review, emphasis was placed on doses relevant for radiotherapy with respect to radiation induced solid cancer. Simple radiation protection <span class="hlt">models</span> should be used only with extreme care for <span class="hlt">risk</span> estimates in radiotherapy, since they are developed exclusively for low dose. When applied to scatter radiation, such <span class="hlt">models</span> can predict only a fraction of observed second malignancies. Better semi-empirical <span class="hlt">models</span> include the effect of dose fractionation and represent the dose-response relationships more accurately. The involved uncertainties are still huge for most of the organs and tissues. A major reason for this is that the</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3684154','PMC'); return false;" href="http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3684154"><span id="translatedtitle">Perceived <span class="hlt">risk</span> for cancer in an urban sexual minority</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Hay, Jennifer L.; Coups, Elliot; Warren, Barbara; Li, Yuelin; Ostroff, Jamie S.</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>Lesbians, gay men, and bisexuals are a sexual minority experiencing elevated cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span> factors and health disaparites, e.g., elevated tobacco use, disproportionate rates of infection with human immunodeficiency virus. Little attention has been paid to cancer prevention, education, and control in sexual minorities. This study describes cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span> perceptions and their correlates so as to generate testable hypotheses and provide a foundation for targeting cancer prevention and <span class="hlt">risk</span> reduction efforts in this high <span class="hlt">risk</span> population. A cross-sectional survey of affiliates of a large urban community center serving sexual minority persons yielded a study sample of 247 anonymous persons. The survey assessed demographics, <span class="hlt">absolute</span> perceived cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span>, cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span> behaviors, desired lifestyle changes to reduce cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span>, and psychosocial variables including stress, depression, and stigma. Univariate and multivariate nonparametric statistics were used for analyses. The sample was primarily white non-Hispanic, middle-aged, and > 80% had at least a high school education. Mean values for <span class="hlt">absolute</span> perceived cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span> (range 0–100% <span class="hlt">risk</span>), were 43.0 (SD = 25.4) for females, and for males, 49.3 (SD = 24.3). For females, although the multivariate regression <span class="hlt">model</span> for <span class="hlt">absolute</span> perceived cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span> was statistically significant (P < .05), no single <span class="hlt">model</span> variable was significant. For men, the multivariate regression <span class="hlt">model</span> was significant (P < .001), with endorsement of “don't smoke/quit smoking” to reduce personal cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span> (P < .001), and greater number of sexual partners (P = .054), positively associated with <span class="hlt">absolute</span> perceived <span class="hlt">risk</span> for cancer. This study provides novel data on cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span> perceptions in sexual minorities, identifying correlates of <span class="hlt">absolute</span> perceived cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span> for each gender and several potential foci for cancer prevention interventions with this at-<span class="hlt">risk</span> group. PMID:20872174</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20872174','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20872174"><span id="translatedtitle">Perceived <span class="hlt">risk</span> for cancer in an urban sexual minority.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Burkhalter, Jack E; Hay, Jennifer L; Coups, Elliot; Warren, Barbara; Li, Yuelin; Ostroff, Jamie S</p> <p>2011-06-01</p> <p>Lesbians, gay men, and bisexuals are a sexual minority experiencing elevated cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span> factors and health disaparites, e.g., elevated tobacco use, disproportionate rates of infection with human immunodeficiency virus. Little attention has been paid to cancer prevention, education, and control in sexual minorities. This study describes cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span> perceptions and their correlates so as to generate testable hypotheses and provide a foundation for targeting cancer prevention and <span class="hlt">risk</span> reduction efforts in this high <span class="hlt">risk</span> population. A cross-sectional survey of affiliates of a large urban community center serving sexual minority persons yielded a study sample of 247 anonymous persons. The survey assessed demographics, <span class="hlt">absolute</span> perceived cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span>, cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span> behaviors, desired lifestyle changes to reduce cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span>, and psychosocial variables including stress, depression, and stigma. Univariate and multivariate nonparametric statistics were used for analyses. The sample was primarily white non-Hispanic, middle-aged, and > 80% had at least a high school education. Mean values for <span class="hlt">absolute</span> perceived cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span> (range 0-100% <span class="hlt">risk</span>), were 43.0 (SD = 25.4) for females, and for males, 49.3 (SD = 24.3). For females, although the multivariate regression <span class="hlt">model</span> for <span class="hlt">absolute</span> perceived cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span> was statistically significant (P < .05), no single <span class="hlt">model</span> variable was significant. For men, the multivariate regression <span class="hlt">model</span> was significant (P < .001), with endorsement of "don't smoke/quit smoking" to reduce personal cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span> (P < .001), and greater number of sexual partners (P = .054), positively associated with <span class="hlt">absolute</span> perceived <span class="hlt">risk</span> for cancer. This study provides novel data on cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span> perceptions in sexual minorities, identifying correlates of <span class="hlt">absolute</span> perceived cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span> for each gender and several potential foci for cancer prevention interventions with this at-<span class="hlt">risk</span> group. PMID:20872174</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26479564','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26479564"><span id="translatedtitle">A Family-Centered <span class="hlt">Model</span> for Sharing Genetic <span class="hlt">Risk</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Daly, Mary B</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>The successes of the Human Genome Project have ushered in a new era of genomic science. To effectively translate these discoveries, it will be critical to improve the communication of genetic <span class="hlt">risk</span> within families. This will require a systematic approach that accounts for the nature of family relationships and sociocultural beliefs. This paper proposes the application of the Family Systems Illness <span class="hlt">Model</span>, used in the setting of cancer care, to the evolving field of genomics. PMID:26479564</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012JIEI....8...15M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012JIEI....8...15M"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Modeling</span> the operational <span class="hlt">risk</span> in Iranian commercial banks: case study of a private bank</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Momen, Omid; Kimiagari, Alimohammad; Noorbakhsh, Eaman</p> <p>2012-08-01</p> <p>The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision from the Bank for International Settlement classifies banking <span class="hlt">risks</span> into three main categories including credit <span class="hlt">risk</span>, market <span class="hlt">risk</span>, and operational <span class="hlt">risk</span>. The focus of this study is on the operational <span class="hlt">risk</span> measurement in Iranian banks. Therefore, issues arising when trying to implement operational <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">models</span> in Iran are discussed, and then, some solutions are recommended. Moreover, all steps of operational <span class="hlt">risk</span> measurement based on Loss Distribution Approach with Iran's specific modifications are presented. We employed the approach of this study to <span class="hlt">model</span> the operational <span class="hlt">risk</span> of an Iranian private bank. The results are quite reasonable, comparing the scale of bank and other <span class="hlt">risk</span> categories.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140011886','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140011886"><span id="translatedtitle">Quantitative <span class="hlt">Risk</span> <span class="hlt">Modeling</span> of Fire on the International Space Station</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Castillo, Theresa; Haught, Megan</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>The International Space Station (ISS) Program has worked to prevent fire events and to mitigate their impacts should they occur. Hardware is designed to reduce sources of ignition, oxygen systems are designed to control leaking, flammable materials are prevented from flying to ISS whenever possible, the crew is trained in fire response, and fire response equipment improvements are sought out and funded. Fire prevention and mitigation are a top ISS Program priority - however, programmatic resources are limited; thus, <span class="hlt">risk</span> trades are made to ensure an adequate level of safety is maintained onboard the ISS. In support of these <span class="hlt">risk</span> trades, the ISS Probabilistic <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Assessment (PRA) team has <span class="hlt">modeled</span> the likelihood of fire occurring in the ISS pressurized cabin, a phenomenological event that has never before been probabilistically <span class="hlt">modeled</span> in a microgravity environment. This paper will discuss the genesis of the ISS PRA fire <span class="hlt">model</span>, its enhancement in collaboration with fire experts, and the results which have informed ISS programmatic decisions and will continue to be used throughout the life of the program.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4839893','PMC'); return false;" href="http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4839893"><span id="translatedtitle">A Novel <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Score to the Prediction of 10-year <span class="hlt">Risk</span> for Coronary Artery Disease Among the Elderly in Beijing Based on Competing <span class="hlt">Risk</span> <span class="hlt">Model</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Liu, Long; Tang, Zhe; Li, Xia; Luo, Yanxia; Guo, Jin; Li, Haibin; Liu, Xiangtong; Tao, Lixin; Yan, Aoshuang; Guo, Xiuhua</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>Abstract The study aimed to construct a <span class="hlt">risk</span> prediction <span class="hlt">model</span> for coronary artery disease (CAD) based on competing <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">model</span> among the elderly in Beijing and develop a user-friendly CAD <span class="hlt">risk</span> score tool. We used competing <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">model</span> to evaluate the <span class="hlt">risk</span> of developing a first CAD event. On the basis of the <span class="hlt">risk</span> factors that were included in the competing <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">model</span>, we constructed the CAD <span class="hlt">risk</span> prediction <span class="hlt">model</span> with Cox proportional hazard <span class="hlt">model</span>. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and time-dependent area under the ROC curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the discrimination ability of the both methods. Calibration plots were applied to assess the calibration ability and adjusted for the competing <span class="hlt">risk</span> of non-CAD death. Net reclassification index (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were applied to quantify the improvement contributed by the new <span class="hlt">risk</span> factors. Internal validation of predictive accuracy was performed using 1000 times of bootstrap re-sampling. Of the 1775 participants without CAD at baseline, 473 incident cases of CAD were documented for a 20-year follow-up. Time-dependent AUCs for men and women at t = 10 years were 0.841 [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.806–0.877], 0.804 (95% CI: 0.768–0.839) in Fine and Gray <span class="hlt">model</span>, 0.784 (95% CI: 0.738–0.830), 0.733 (95% CI: 0.692–0.775) in Cox proportional hazard <span class="hlt">model</span>. The competing <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">model</span> was significantly superior to Cox proportional hazard <span class="hlt">model</span> on discrimination and calibration. The cut-off values of the <span class="hlt">risk</span> score that marked the difference between low-<span class="hlt">risk</span> and high-<span class="hlt">risk</span> patients were 34 points for men and 30 points for women, which have good sensitivity and specificity. A sex-specific multivariable <span class="hlt">risk</span> factor algorithm-based competing <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">model</span> has been developed on the basis of an elderly Chinese cohort, which could be applied to predict an individual's <span class="hlt">risk</span> and provide a useful guide to identify the groups at a high <span class="hlt">risk</span> for CAD among the Chinese</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2003EAEJA....14274A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2003EAEJA....14274A"><span id="translatedtitle">A new <span class="hlt">model</span> for polluted soil <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Andretta, M.; Villani, M.; Serra, R.</p> <p>2003-04-01</p> <p>In the last years, the problem of the evaluation of the <span class="hlt">risk</span> related to soil pollution has became more and more important, all over the world. The increasing number of polluted soils in all the industrialised counties has required the formalisation of well defined methodologies for defining the technical and economical limits of soil remediation. Mainly, these limits are defined in terms of general threshold values that, in some cases, can not be reached even with the so called Best Available Technology (B.A.T.) due for example to the characteristics of the pollutants or of the affected soil, or on the extremely high cost or duration of the remedial intervention. For these reasons, both in the North American Countries and in the European ones, many alternative methodologies based on systematic and scientifically well founded approaches have been developed, in order to determine the real effects of the pollution on the receptor targets. Typically, these methodologies are organised into different levels of detail, the so called "TIERS". Tier 1 is based on a conservative estimation of the <span class="hlt">risk</span> for the targets, that comes from very general and "worst case" general situations. Tier 2 is based on a more detailed and site specific estimation of the hazard, evaluated by the use of semi-empirical, analytical formulas for the source characterisation, the transport of the pollutant, the target exposition evaluation. Tier 3 is the more detailed and site specific level of application of the <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment methodologies and requires the use of numerical methods with many detailed information on the site and on the receptors (e.g.: chemical/physical parameters of the pollutants, hydro-geological data, exposition data, etc.) In this paper, we describe the most important theoretical aspects of the polluted soil <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment methodologies and the relevant role played, in this kind of analysis, by the pollutant transport <span class="hlt">models</span>. In particular, we describe a new and innovative</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1988EnGeo..12..135U','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1988EnGeo..12..135U"><span id="translatedtitle">Evaluation of data for Sinkhole-development <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">models</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Upchurch, Sam B.; Littlefield, James R.</p> <p>1988-10-01</p> <p>Before <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessments for sinkhole damage and indemnification are developed, a data base must be created to predict the occurrence and distribution of sinkholes. This database must be evaluated in terms of the following questions: (1) are available records of modern sinkhole development adequate, (2) can the distribution of ancient sinks be used for predictive purposes, and (3) at what areal scale must sinkhole occurrences be evaluated for predictive and <span class="hlt">risk</span> analysis purposes? Twelve 7.5' quadrangles with varying karst development in Hillsborough County, Florida provide insight into these questions. The area includes 179 modern sinks that developed between 1964 and 1985 and 2,303 ancient sinks. The sinks occur in urban, suburban, agricultural, and major forest wetland areas. The number of ancient sinks ranges from 0.1 to 3.2/km2 and averages 1.1/km2 for the entire area. The quadrangle area occupied by ancient sinks ranges from 0.3 to 10.2 percent. The distribution of ancient sinkholes within a quadrangle ranges from 0 to over 25 percent of the land surface. In bare karst areas, the sinks are localized along major lineaments, especially at lineament intersections. Where there is covered karst, ancient sinks may be obscured. Modern sinkholes did not uniformly through time, they ranged from 0 to 29/yr. The regional occurrence rate is 7.6/yr. Most were reported in urban or suburban areas and their locations coincide with the lineament-controlled areas of ancient karst. Moving-average analysis indicates that the distribution of modern sinks is highly localized and ranges from 0 to 1.9/km2. Chi-square tests show that the distribution of ancient sinks in bare karst areas significantly predicts the locations of modern sinks. In areas of covered karst, the locations of ancient sinkholes do not predict modern sinks. It appears that <span class="hlt">risk</span>-assessment <span class="hlt">models</span> for sinkhole development can use the distribution of ancient sinks where bare karst is present. In covered karst areas</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014PhDT.......303B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014PhDT.......303B"><span id="translatedtitle">Time-based collision <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">modeling</span> for air traffic management</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Bell, Alan E.</p> <p></p> <p>Since the emergence of commercial aviation in the early part of last century, economic forces have driven a steadily increasing demand for air transportation. Increasing density of aircraft operating in a finite volume of airspace is accompanied by a corresponding increase in the <span class="hlt">risk</span> of collision, and in response to a growing number of incidents and accidents involving collisions between aircraft, governments worldwide have developed air traffic control systems and procedures to mitigate this <span class="hlt">risk</span>. The objective of any collision <span class="hlt">risk</span> management system is to project conflicts and provide operators with sufficient opportunity to recognize potential collisions and take necessary actions to avoid them. It is therefore the assertion of this research that the currency of collision <span class="hlt">risk</span> management is time. Future Air Traffic Management Systems are being designed around the foundational principle of four dimensional trajectory based operations, a method that replaces legacy first-come, first-served sequencing priorities with time-based reservations throughout the airspace system. This research will demonstrate that if aircraft are to be sequenced in four dimensions, they must also be separated in four dimensions. In order to separate aircraft in four dimensions, time must emerge as the primary tool by which air traffic is managed. A functional relationship exists between the time-based performance of aircraft, the interval between aircraft scheduled to cross some three dimensional point in space, and the <span class="hlt">risk</span> of collision. This research <span class="hlt">models</span> that relationship and presents two key findings. First, a method is developed by which the ability of an aircraft to meet a required time of arrival may be expressed as a robust standard for both industry and operations. Second, a method by which airspace system capacity may be increased while maintaining an acceptable level of collision <span class="hlt">risk</span> is presented and demonstrated for the purpose of formulating recommendations for procedures</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70025069','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70025069"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Absolute</span> irradiance of the Moon for on-orbit calibration</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Stone, T.C.; Kieffer, H.H.</p> <p>2002-01-01</p> <p>The recognized need for on-orbit calibration of remote sensing imaging instruments drives the ROLO project effort to characterize the Moon for use as an <span class="hlt">absolute</span> radiance source. For over 5 years the ground-based ROLO telescopes have acquired spatially-resolved lunar images in 23 VNIR (Moon diameter ???500 pixels) and 9 SWIR (???250 pixels) passbands at phase angles within ??90 degrees. A numerical <span class="hlt">model</span> for lunar irradiance has been developed which fits hundreds of ROLO images in each band, corrected for atmospheric extinction and calibrated to <span class="hlt">absolute</span> radiance, then integrated to irradiance. The band-coupled extinction algorithm uses absorption spectra of several gases and aerosols derived from MODTRAN to fit time-dependent component abundances to nightly observations of standard stars. The <span class="hlt">absolute</span> radiance scale is based upon independent telescopic measurements of the star Vega. The fitting process yields uncertainties in lunar relative irradiance over small ranges of phase angle and the full range of lunar libration well under 0.5%. A larger source of uncertainty enters in the <span class="hlt">absolute</span> solar spectral irradiance, especially in the SWIR, where solar <span class="hlt">models</span> disagree by up to 6%. Results of ROLO <span class="hlt">model</span> direct comparisons to spacecraft observations demonstrate the ability of the technique to track sensor responsivity drifts to sub-percent precision. Intercomparisons among instruments provide key insights into both calibration issues and the <span class="hlt">absolute</span> scale for lunar irradiance.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17278472','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17278472"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Model</span> <span class="hlt">risk</span> for European-style stock index options.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Gençay, Ramazan; Gibson, Rajna</p> <p>2007-01-01</p> <p>In empirical <span class="hlt">modeling</span>, there have been two strands for pricing in the options literature, namely the parametric and nonparametric <span class="hlt">models</span>. Often, the support for the nonparametric methods is based on a benchmark such as the Black-Scholes (BS) <span class="hlt">model</span> with constant volatility. In this paper, we study the stochastic volatility (SV) and stochastic volatility random jump (SVJ) <span class="hlt">models</span> as parametric benchmarks against feedforward neural network (FNN) <span class="hlt">models</span>, a class of neural network <span class="hlt">models</span>. Our choice for FNN <span class="hlt">models</span> is due to their well-studied universal approximation properties of an unknown function and its partial derivatives. Since the partial derivatives of an option pricing formula are <span class="hlt">risk</span> pricing tools, an accurate estimation of the unknown option pricing function is essential for pricing and hedging. Our findings indicate that FNN <span class="hlt">models</span> offer themselves as robust option pricing tools, over their sophisticated parametric counterparts in predictive settings. There are two routes to explain the superiority of FNN <span class="hlt">models</span> over the parametric <span class="hlt">models</span> in forecast settings. These are nonnormality of return distributions and adaptive learning. PMID:17278472</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4495931','PMC'); return false;" href="http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4495931"><span id="translatedtitle">A Spatio-temporal <span class="hlt">Model</span> of African Animal Trypanosomosis <span class="hlt">Risk</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Dicko, Ahmadou H.; Percoma, Lassane; Sow, Adama; Adam, Yahaya; Mahama, Charles; Sidibé, Issa; Dayo, Guiguigbaza-Kossigan; Thévenon, Sophie; Fonta, William; Sanfo, Safietou; Djiteye, Aligui; Salou, Ernest; Djohan, Vincent; Cecchi, Giuliano; Bouyer, Jérémy</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Background African animal trypanosomosis (AAT) is a major constraint to sustainable development of cattle farming in sub-Saharan Africa. The habitat of the tsetse fly vector is increasingly fragmented owing to demographic pressure and shifts in climate, which leads to heterogeneous <span class="hlt">risk</span> of cyclical transmission both in space and time. In Burkina Faso and Ghana, the most important vectors are riverine species, namely Glossina palpalis gambiensis and G. tachinoides, which are more resilient to human-induced changes than the savannah and forest species. Although many authors studied the distribution of AAT <span class="hlt">risk</span> both in space and time, spatio-temporal <span class="hlt">models</span> allowing predictions of it are lacking. Methodology/Principal Findings We used datasets generated by various projects, including two baseline surveys conducted in Burkina Faso and Ghana within PATTEC (Pan African Tsetse and Trypanosomosis Eradication Campaign) national initiatives. We computed the entomological inoculation rate (EIR) or tsetse challenge using a range of environmental data. The tsetse apparent density and their infection rate were separately estimated and subsequently combined to derive the EIR using a “one layer-one model” approach. The estimated EIR was then projected into suitable habitat. This <span class="hlt">risk</span> index was finally validated against data on bovine trypanosomosis. It allowed a good prediction of the parasitological status (r2 = 67%), showed a positive correlation but less predictive power with serological status (r2 = 22%) aggregated at the village level but was not related to the illness status (r2 = 2%). Conclusions/Significance The presented spatio-temporal <span class="hlt">model</span> provides a fine-scale picture of the dynamics of AAT <span class="hlt">risk</span> in sub-humid areas of West Africa. The estimated EIR was high in the proximity of rivers during the dry season and more widespread during the rainy season. The present analysis is a first step in a broader framework for an efficient <span class="hlt">risk</span> management of climate</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/1017893','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/1017893"><span id="translatedtitle">Peer Review of NRC Standardized Plant Analysis <span class="hlt">Risk</span> <span class="hlt">Models</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Anthony Koonce; James Knudsen; Robert Buell</p> <p>2011-03-01</p> <p>The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Standardized Plant Analysis <span class="hlt">Risk</span> (SPAR) <span class="hlt">Models</span> underwent a Peer Review using ASME PRA standard (Addendum C) as endorsed by NRC in Regulatory Guide (RG) 1.200. The review was performed by a mix of industry probabilistic <span class="hlt">risk</span> analysis (PRA) experts and NRC PRA experts. Representative SPAR <span class="hlt">models</span>, one PWR and one BWR, were reviewed against Capability Category I of the ASME PRA standard. Capability Category I was selected as the basis for review due to the specific uses/applications of the SPAR <span class="hlt">models</span>. The BWR SPAR <span class="hlt">model</span> was reviewed against 331 ASME PRA Standard Supporting Requirements; however, based on the Capability Category I level of review and the absence of internal flooding and containment performance (LERF) logic only 216 requirements were determined to be applicable. Based on the review, the BWR SPAR <span class="hlt">model</span> met 139 of the 216 supporting requirements. The review also generated 200 findings or suggestions. Of these 200 findings and suggestions 142 were findings and 58 were suggestions. The PWR SPAR <span class="hlt">model</span> was also evaluated against the same 331 ASME PRA Standard Supporting Requirements. Of these requirements only 215 were deemed appropriate for the review (for the same reason as noted for the BWR). The PWR review determined that 125 of the 215 supporting requirements met Capability Category I or greater. The review identified 101 findings or suggestions (76 findings and 25 suggestions). These findings or suggestions were developed to identify areas where SPAR <span class="hlt">models</span> could be enhanced. A process to prioritize and incorporate the findings/suggestions supporting requirements into the SPAR <span class="hlt">models</span> is being developed. The prioritization process focuses on those findings that will enhance the accuracy, completeness and usability of the SPAR <span class="hlt">models</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4989465','PMC'); return false;" href="http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4989465"><span id="translatedtitle">Approximate Uncertainty <span class="hlt">Modeling</span> in <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Analysis with Vine Copulas</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Bedford, Tim; Daneshkhah, Alireza</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Many applications of <span class="hlt">risk</span> analysis require us to jointly <span class="hlt">model</span> multiple uncertain quantities. Bayesian networks and copulas are two common approaches to <span class="hlt">modeling</span> joint uncertainties with probability distributions. This article focuses on new methodologies for copulas by developing work of Cooke, Bedford, Kurowica, and others on vines as a way of constructing higher dimensional distributions that do not suffer from some of the restrictions of alternatives such as the multivariate Gaussian copula. The article provides a fundamental approximation result, demonstrating that we can approximate any density as closely as we like using vines. It further operationalizes this result by showing how minimum information copulas can be used to provide parametric classes of copulas that have such good levels of approximation. We extend previous approaches using vines by considering nonconstant conditional dependencies, which are particularly relevant in financial <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">modeling</span>. We discuss how such <span class="hlt">models</span> may be quantified, in terms of expert judgment or by fitting data, and illustrate the approach by <span class="hlt">modeling</span> two financial data sets. PMID:26332240</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.H32G..03B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.H32G..03B"><span id="translatedtitle">Integrated Assessment <span class="hlt">Modeling</span> for Carbon Storage <span class="hlt">Risk</span> and Uncertainty Quantification</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Bromhal, G. S.; Dilmore, R.; Pawar, R.; Stauffer, P. H.; Gastelum, J.; Oldenburg, C. M.; Zhang, Y.; Chu, S.</p> <p>2013-12-01</p> <p>The National <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Assessment Partnership (NRAP) has developed tools to perform quantitative <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment at site-specific locations for long-term carbon storage. The approach that is being used is to divide the storage and containment system into components (e.g., reservoirs, seals, wells, groundwater aquifers), to develop detailed <span class="hlt">models</span> for each component, to generate reduced order <span class="hlt">models</span> (ROMs) based on the detailed <span class="hlt">models</span>, and to reconnect the reduced order <span class="hlt">models</span> within an integrated assessment <span class="hlt">model</span> (IAM). CO2-PENS, developed at Los Alamos National Lab, is being used as the IAM for the simulations in this study. The benefit of this approach is that simulations of the complete system can be generated on a relatively rapid time scale so that Monte Carlo simulation can be performed. In this study, hundreds of thousands of runs of the IAMs have been generated to estimate likelihoods of the quantity of CO2 released to the atmosphere, size of aquifer impacted by pH, size of aquifer impacted by TDS, and size of aquifer with different metals concentrations. Correlations of the output variables with different reservoir, seal, wellbore, and aquifer parameters have been generated. Importance measures have been identified, and inputs have been ranked in the order of their impact on the output quantities. Presentation will describe the approach used, representative results, and implications for how the Monte Carlo analysis is implemented on uncertainty quantification.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3778023','PMC'); return false;" href="http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3778023"><span id="translatedtitle">Predicting the <span class="hlt">Risk</span> of Rheumatoid Arthritis and Its Age of Onset through <span class="hlt">Modelling</span> Genetic <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Variants with Smoking</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Scott, Ian C.; Seegobin, Seth D.; Steer, Sophia; Tan, Rachael; Forabosco, Paola; Hinks, Anne; Eyre, Stephen; Morgan, Ann W.; Wilson, Anthony G.; Hocking, Lynne J.; Wordsworth, Paul; Barton, Anne; Worthington, Jane; Cope, Andrew P.; Lewis, Cathryn M.</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>The improved characterisation of <span class="hlt">risk</span> factors for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) suggests they could be combined to identify individuals at increased disease <span class="hlt">risks</span> in whom preventive strategies may be evaluated. We aimed to develop an RA prediction <span class="hlt">model</span> capable of generating clinically relevant predictive data and to determine if it better predicted younger onset RA (YORA). Our novel <span class="hlt">modelling</span> approach combined odds ratios for 15 four-digit/10 two-digit HLA-DRB1 alleles, 31 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and ever-smoking status in males to determine <span class="hlt">risk</span> using computer simulation and confidence interval based <span class="hlt">risk</span> categorisation. Only males were evaluated in our <span class="hlt">models</span> incorporating smoking as ever-smoking is a significant <span class="hlt">risk</span> factor for RA in men but not women. We developed multiple <span class="hlt">models</span> to evaluate each <span class="hlt">risk</span> factor's impact on prediction. Each <span class="hlt">model</span>'s ability to discriminate anti-citrullinated protein antibody (ACPA)-positive RA from controls was evaluated in two cohorts: Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium (WTCCC: 1,516 cases; 1,647 controls); UK RA Genetics Group Consortium (UKRAGG: 2,623 cases; 1,500 controls). HLA and smoking provided strongest prediction with good discrimination evidenced by an HLA-smoking <span class="hlt">model</span> area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.813 in both WTCCC and UKRAGG. SNPs provided minimal prediction (AUC 0.660 WTCCC/0.617 UKRAGG). Whilst high individual <span class="hlt">risks</span> were identified, with some cases having estimated lifetime <span class="hlt">risks</span> of 86%, only a minority overall had substantially increased odds for RA. High <span class="hlt">risks</span> from the HLA <span class="hlt">model</span> were associated with YORA (P<0.0001); ever-smoking associated with older onset disease. This latter finding suggests smoking's impact on RA <span class="hlt">risk</span> manifests later in life. Our <span class="hlt">modelling</span> demonstrates that combining <span class="hlt">risk</span> factors provides clinically informative RA prediction; additionally HLA and smoking status can be used to predict the <span class="hlt">risk</span> of younger and older onset RA, respectively. PMID:24068971</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3792985','PMC'); return false;" href="http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3792985"><span id="translatedtitle">Future Bloom and Blossom Frost <span class="hlt">Risk</span> for Malus domestica Considering Climate <span class="hlt">Model</span> and Impact <span class="hlt">Model</span> Uncertainties</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Hoffmann, Holger; Rath, Thomas</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>The future bloom and <span class="hlt">risk</span> of blossom frosts for Malus domestica were projected using regional climate realizations and phenological ( = impact) <span class="hlt">models</span>. As climate impact projections are susceptible to uncertainties of climate and impact <span class="hlt">models</span> and <span class="hlt">model</span> concatenation, the significant horizon of the climate impact signal was analyzed by applying 7 impact <span class="hlt">models</span>, including two new developments, on 13 climate realizations of the IPCC emission scenario A1B. Advancement of phenophases and a decrease in blossom frost <span class="hlt">risk</span> for Lower Saxony (Germany) for early and late ripeners was determined by six out of seven phenological <span class="hlt">models</span>. Single <span class="hlt">model</span>/single grid point time series of bloom showed significant trends by 2021–2050 compared to 1971–2000, whereas the joint signal of all climate and impact <span class="hlt">models</span> did not stabilize until 2043. Regarding blossom frost <span class="hlt">risk</span>, joint projection variability exceeded the projected signal. Thus, blossom frost <span class="hlt">risk</span> cannot be stated to be lower by the end of the 21st century despite a negative trend. As a consequence it is however unlikely to increase. Uncertainty of temperature, blooming date and blossom frost <span class="hlt">risk</span> projection reached a minimum at 2078–2087. The projected phenophases advanced by 5.5 d K−1, showing partial compensation of delayed fulfillment of the winter chill requirement and faster completion of the following forcing phase in spring. Finally, phenological <span class="hlt">model</span> performance was improved by considering the length of day. PMID:24116022</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4030746','PMC'); return false;" href="http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4030746"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Risk</span>-Adjusted <span class="hlt">Models</span> for Adverse Obstetric Outcomes and Variation in <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Adjusted Outcomes Across Hospitals</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Bailit, Jennifer L.; Grobman, William A.; Rice, Madeline Murguia; Spong, Catherine Y.; Wapner, Ronald J.; Varner, Michael W.; Thorp, John M.; Leveno, Kenneth J.; Caritis, Steve N.; Shubert, Phillip J.; Tita, Alan T. N.; Saade, George; Sorokin, Yoram; Rouse, Dwight J.; Blackwell, Sean C.; Tolosa, Jorge E.; Van Dorsten, J. Peter</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>Objective Regulatory bodies and insurers evaluate hospital quality using obstetrical outcomes, however meaningful comparisons should take pre-existing patient characteristics into account. Furthermore, if <span class="hlt">risk</span>-adjusted outcomes are consistent within a hospital, fewer measures and resources would be needed to assess obstetrical quality. Our objective was to establish <span class="hlt">risk</span>-adjusted <span class="hlt">models</span> for five obstetric outcomes and assess hospital performance across these outcomes. Study Design A cohort study of 115,502 women and their neonates born in 25 hospitals in the United States between March 2008 and February 2011. Hospitals were ranked according to their unadjusted and <span class="hlt">risk</span>-adjusted frequency of venous thromboembolism, postpartum hemorrhage, peripartum infection, severe perineal laceration, and a composite neonatal adverse outcome. Correlations between hospital <span class="hlt">risk</span>-adjusted outcome frequencies were assessed. Results Venous thromboembolism occurred too infrequently (0.03%, 95% CI 0.02% – 0.04%) for meaningful assessment. Other outcomes occurred frequently enough for assessment (postpartum hemorrhage 2.29% (95% CI 2.20–2.38), peripartum infection 5.06% (95% CI 4.93–5.19), severe perineal laceration at spontaneous vaginal delivery 2.16% (95% CI 2.06–2.27), neonatal composite 2.73% (95% CI 2.63–2.84)). Although there was high concordance between unadjusted and adjusted hospital rankings, several individual hospitals had an adjusted rank that was substantially different (as much as 12 rank tiers) than their unadjusted rank. None of the correlations between hospital adjusted outcome frequencies was significant. For example, the hospital with the lowest adjusted frequency of peripartum infection had the highest adjusted frequency of severe perineal laceration. Conclusions Evaluations based on a single <span class="hlt">risk</span>-adjusted outcome cannot be generalized to overall hospital obstetric performance. PMID:23891630</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li class="active"><span>19</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_19 --> <div id="page_20" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li class="active"><span>20</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="381"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014NHESS..14.1985H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014NHESS..14.1985H"><span id="translatedtitle">The characteristics of lightning <span class="hlt">risk</span> and zoning in Beijing simulated by a <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment <span class="hlt">model</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Hu, H.; Wang, J.; Pan, J.</p> <p>2014-08-01</p> <p>In this study, the cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning flash/stroke density was derived from the lightning location finder (LLF) data recorded between 2007 and 2011. The vulnerability of land surfaces was then assessed from the classification of the study areas into buildings, outdoor areas under the building canopy and open-field areas, which makes it convenient to deduce the location factor and confirm the protective capability. Subsequently, the potential number of dangerous lightning events at a location could be estimated from the product of the CG stroke density and the location's vulnerability. Although the human beings and all their material properties are identically exposed to lightning, the lightning casualty <span class="hlt">risk</span> and property loss <span class="hlt">risk</span> was assessed respectively due to their vulnerability discrepancy. Our analysis of the CG flash density in Beijing revealed that the valley of JuMaHe to the southwest, the ChangPing-ShunYi zone downwind of the Beijing metropolis, and the mountainous PingGu-MiYun zone near the coast are the most active lightning areas, with densities greater than 1.5 flashes km-2 year-1. Moreover, the mountainous northeastern, northern, and northwestern rural areas are relatively more vulnerable to lightning because the high-elevation terrain attracts lightning and there is little protection. In contrast, lightning incidents by induced lightning are most likely to occur in densely populated urban areas, and the property damage caused by lightning here is more extensive than that in suburban and rural areas. However, casualty incidents caused by direct lightning strokes seldom occur in urban areas. On the other hand, the simulation based on the lightning <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment <span class="hlt">model</span> (LRAM) demonstrates that the casualty <span class="hlt">risk</span> is higher in rural areas, whereas the property loss <span class="hlt">risk</span> is higher in urban areas, and this conclusion is also supported by the historical casualty and damage reports.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4924827','PMC'); return false;" href="http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4924827"><span id="translatedtitle">Quantifying Systemic <span class="hlt">Risk</span> by Solutions of the Mean-Variance <span class="hlt">Risk</span> <span class="hlt">Model</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Morgenstern, Ingo</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>The world is still recovering from the financial crisis peaking in September 2008. The triggering event was the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. To detect such turmoils, one can investigate the time-dependent behaviour of correlations between assets or indices. These cross-correlations have been connected to the systemic <span class="hlt">risks</span> within markets by several studies in the aftermath of this crisis. We study 37 different US indices which cover almost all aspects of the US economy and show that monitoring an average investor’s behaviour can be used to quantify times of increased <span class="hlt">risk</span>. In this paper the overall investing strategy is approximated by the ground-states of the mean-variance <span class="hlt">model</span> along the efficient frontier bound to real world constraints. Changes in the behaviour of the average investor is utlilized as a early warning sign. PMID:27351482</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27351482','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27351482"><span id="translatedtitle">Quantifying Systemic <span class="hlt">Risk</span> by Solutions of the Mean-Variance <span class="hlt">Risk</span> <span class="hlt">Model</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Jurczyk, Jan; Eckrot, Alexander; Morgenstern, Ingo</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>The world is still recovering from the financial crisis peaking in September 2008. The triggering event was the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. To detect such turmoils, one can investigate the time-dependent behaviour of correlations between assets or indices. These cross-correlations have been connected to the systemic <span class="hlt">risks</span> within markets by several studies in the aftermath of this crisis. We study 37 different US indices which cover almost all aspects of the US economy and show that monitoring an average investor's behaviour can be used to quantify times of increased <span class="hlt">risk</span>. In this paper the overall investing strategy is approximated by the ground-states of the mean-variance <span class="hlt">model</span> along the efficient frontier bound to real world constraints. Changes in the behaviour of the average investor is utlilized as a early warning sign. PMID:27351482</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=1533331','PMC'); return false;" href="http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=1533331"><span id="translatedtitle">Biomarkers of leukemia <span class="hlt">risk</span>: benzene as a <span class="hlt">model</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Smith, M T; Zhang, L</p> <p>1998-01-01</p> <p>Although relatively rare, leukemias place a considerable financial burden on society and cause psychologic trauma to many families. Leukemia is the most common cancer in children. The causes of leukemia in adults and children are largely unknown, but occupational and environmental factors are strongly suspected. Genetic predisposition may also play a major role. Our aim is to use molecular epidemiology and toxicology to find the cause of leukemia and develop biomarkers of leukemia <span class="hlt">risk</span>. We have studied benzene as a <span class="hlt">model</span> chemical leukemogen, and we have identified <span class="hlt">risk</span> factors for susceptibility to benzene toxicity. Numerous studies have associated exposure to benzene with increased levels of chromosome aberrations in circulating lymphocytes of exposed workers. Increased levels of chromosome aberrations have, in turn, been correlated with a heightened <span class="hlt">risk</span> of cancer, especially for hematologic malignancy, in two recent cohort studies in Europe. Conventional chromosome analysis is laborious, however, and requires highly trained personnel. Further, it lacks statistical power, as only a small number of cells can be examined. The recently developed fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) and polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based technologies have allowed the detection of specific chromosome aberrations. These techniques are far less time consuming and are more sensitive than classical chromosomal analysis. Because leukemias commonly show a variety of specific chromosome aberrations, detection of these aberrations by FISH and PCR in peripheral blood may provide improved biomarkers of leukemia <span class="hlt">risk</span>. PMID:9703476</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/5253714','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/5253714"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Risk</span> analysis of nuclear safeguards regulations. [Aggregated Systems <span class="hlt">Model</span> (ASM)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Al-Ayat, R.A.; Altman, W.D.; Judd, B.R.</p> <p>1982-06-01</p> <p>The Aggregated Systems <span class="hlt">Model</span> (ASM), a probabilisitic <span class="hlt">risk</span> analysis tool for nuclear safeguards, was applied to determine benefits and costs of proposed amendments to NRC regulations governing nuclear material control and accounting systems. The objective of the amendments was to improve the ability to detect insiders attempting to steal large quantities of special nuclear material (SNM). Insider threats range from likely events with minor consequences to unlikely events with catastrophic consequences. Moreover, establishing safeguards regulations is complicated by uncertainties in threats, safeguards performance, and consequences, and by the subjective judgments and difficult trade-offs between <span class="hlt">risks</span> and safeguards costs. The ASM systematically incorporates these factors in a comprehensive, analytical framework. The ASM was used to evaluate the effectiveness of current safeguards and to quantify the <span class="hlt">risk</span> of SNM theft. Various modifications designed to meet the objectives of the proposed amendments to reduce that <span class="hlt">risk</span> were analyzed. Safeguards effectiveness was judged in terms of the probability of detecting and preventing theft, the expected time to detection, and the expected quantity of SNM diverted in a year. Data were gathered in tours and interviews at NRC-licensed facilities. The assessment at each facility was begun by carefully selecting scenarios representing the range of potential insider threats. A team of analysts and facility managers assigned probabilities for detection and prevention events in each scenario. Using the ASM we computed the measures of system effectiveness and identified cost-effective safeguards modifications that met the objectives of the proposed amendments.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19940030930','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19940030930"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Modeling</span> and managing <span class="hlt">risk</span> early in software development</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Briand, Lionel C.; Thomas, William M.; Hetmanski, Christopher J.</p> <p>1993-01-01</p> <p>In order to improve the quality of the software development process, we need to be able to build empirical multivariate <span class="hlt">models</span> based on data collectable early in the software process. These <span class="hlt">models</span> need to be both useful for prediction and easy to interpret, so that remedial actions may be taken in order to control and optimize the development process. We present an automated <span class="hlt">modeling</span> technique which can be used as an alternative to regression techniques. We show how it can be used to facilitate the identification and aid the interpretation of the significant trends which characterize 'high <span class="hlt">risk</span>' components in several Ada systems. Finally, we evaluate the effectiveness of our technique based on a comparison with logistic regression based <span class="hlt">models</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/237427','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/237427"><span id="translatedtitle">Guide for developing conceptual <span class="hlt">models</span> for ecological <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessments</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Suter, G.W., II</p> <p>1996-05-01</p> <p>Ecological conceptual <span class="hlt">models</span> are the result of the problem formulation phase of an ecological <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment, which is an important component of the Remedial Investigation process. They present hypotheses of how the site contaminants might affect the site ecology. The contaminant sources, routes, media, routes, and endpoint receptors are presented in the form of a flow chart. This guide is for preparing the conceptual <span class="hlt">models</span>; use of this guide will standardize the <span class="hlt">models</span> so that they will be of high quality, useful to the assessment process, and sufficiently consistent so that connections between sources of exposure and receptors can be extended across operable units (OU). Generic conceptual <span class="hlt">models</span> are presented for source, aquatic integrator, groundwater integrator, and terrestrial OUs.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24033371','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24033371"><span id="translatedtitle">Predictive <span class="hlt">model</span> of avian electrocution <span class="hlt">risk</span> on overhead power lines.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Dwyer, J F; Harness, R E; Donohue, K</p> <p>2014-02-01</p> <p>Electrocution on overhead power structures negatively affects avian populations in diverse ecosystems worldwide, contributes to the endangerment of raptor populations in Europe and Africa, and is a major driver of legal action against electric utilities in North America. We investigated factors associated with avian electrocutions so poles that are likely to electrocute a bird can be identified and retrofitted prior to causing avian mortality. We used historical data from southern California to identify patterns of avian electrocution by voltage, month, and year to identify species most often killed by electrocution in our study area and to develop a predictive <span class="hlt">model</span> that compared poles where an avian electrocution was known to have occurred (electrocution poles) with poles where no known electrocution occurred (comparison poles). We chose variables that could be quantified by personnel with little training in ornithology or electric systems. Electrocutions were more common at distribution voltages (≤ 33 kV) and during breeding seasons and were more commonly reported after a retrofitting program began. Red-tailed Hawks (Buteo jamaicensis) (n = 265) and American Crows (Corvus brachyrhynchos) (n = 258) were the most commonly electrocuted species. In the predictive <span class="hlt">model</span>, 4 of 14 candidate variables were required to distinguish electrocution poles from comparison poles: number of jumpers (short wires connecting energized equipment), number of primary conductors, presence of grounding, and presence of unforested unpaved areas as the dominant nearby land cover. When tested against a sample of poles not used to build the <span class="hlt">model</span>, our <span class="hlt">model</span> distributed poles relatively normally across electrocution-<span class="hlt">risk</span> values and identified the average <span class="hlt">risk</span> as higher for electrocution poles relative to comparison poles. Our <span class="hlt">model</span> can be used to reduce avian electrocutions through proactive identification and targeting of high-<span class="hlt">risk</span> poles for retrofitting. PMID:24033371</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007AAS...210.8602L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007AAS...210.8602L"><span id="translatedtitle">Improving HST Pointing & <span class="hlt">Absolute</span> Astrometry</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Lallo, Matthew; Nelan, E.; Kimmer, E.; Cox, C.; Casertano, S.</p> <p>2007-05-01</p> <p>Accurate <span class="hlt">absolute</span> astrometry is becoming increasingly important in an era of multi-mission archives and virtual observatories. Hubble Space Telescope's (HST's) Guidestar Catalog II (GSC2) has reduced coordinate error to around 0.25 arcsecond, a factor 2 or more compared with GSC1. With this reduced catalog error, special attention must be given to calibrate and maintain the Fine Guidance Sensors (FGSs) and Science Instruments (SIs) alignments in HST to a level well below this in order to ensure that the accuracy of science product's astrometry keywords and target positioning are limited only by the catalog errors. After HST Servicing Mission 4, such calibrations' improvement in "blind" pointing accuracy will allow for more efficient COS acquisitions. Multiple SIs and FGSs each have their own footprints in the spatially shared HST focal plane. It is the small changes over time in primarily the whole-body positions & orientations of these instruments & guiders relative to one another that is addressed by this work. We describe the HST Cycle 15 program CAL/OTA 11021 which, along with future variants of it, determines and maintains positions and orientations of the SIs and FGSs to better than 50 milli- arcseconds and 0.04 to 0.004 degrees of roll, putting errors associated with the alignment sufficiently below GSC2 errors. We present recent alignment results and assess their errors, illustrate trends, and describe where and how the observer sees benefit from these calibrations when using HST.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/3777908','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/3777908"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Absolute</span> oral bioavailability of ciprofloxacin.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Drusano, G L; Standiford, H C; Plaisance, K; Forrest, A; Leslie, J; Caldwell, J</p> <p>1986-09-01</p> <p>We evaluated the <span class="hlt">absolute</span> bioavailability of ciprofloxacin, a new quinoline carboxylic acid, in 12 healthy male volunteers. Doses of 200 mg were given to each of the volunteers in a randomized, crossover manner 1 week apart orally and as a 10-min intravenous infusion. Half-lives (mean +/- standard deviation) for the intravenous and oral administration arms were 4.2 +/- 0.77 and 4.11 +/- 0.74 h, respectively. The serum clearance rate averaged 28.5 +/- 4.7 liters/h per 1.73 m2 for the intravenous administration arm. The renal clearance rate accounted for approximately 60% of the corresponding serum clearance rate and was 16.9 +/- 3.0 liters/h per 1.73 m2 for the intravenous arm and 17.0 +/- 2.86 liters/h per 1.73 m2 for the oral administration arm. Absorption was rapid, with peak concentrations in serum occurring at 0.71 +/- 0.15 h. Bioavailability, defined as the ratio of the area under the curve from 0 h to infinity for the oral to the intravenous dose, was 69 +/- 7%. We conclude that ciprofloxacin is rapidly absorbed and reliably bioavailable in these healthy volunteers. Further studies with ciprofloxacin should be undertaken in target patient populations under actual clinical circumstances. PMID:3777908</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014APS..DPPJO6008H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014APS..DPPJO6008H"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Absolute</span> Instability in Coupled-Cavity TWTs</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Hung, D. M. H.; Rittersdorf, I. M.; Zhang, Peng; Lau, Y. Y.; Simon, D. H.; Gilgenbach, R. M.; Chernin, D.; Antonsen, T. M., Jr.</p> <p>2014-10-01</p> <p>This paper will present results of our analysis of <span class="hlt">absolute</span> instability in a coupled-cavity traveling wave tube (TWT). The structure mode at the lower and upper band edges are respectively approximated by a hyperbola in the (omega, k) plane. When the Briggs-Bers criterion is applied, a threshold current for onset of <span class="hlt">absolute</span> instability is observed at the upper band edge, but not the lower band edge. The nonexistence of <span class="hlt">absolute</span> instability at the lower band edge is mathematically similar to the nonexistence of <span class="hlt">absolute</span> instability that we recently demonstrated for a dielectric TWT. The existence of <span class="hlt">absolute</span> instability at the upper band edge is mathematically similar to the existence of <span class="hlt">absolute</span> instability in a gyroton traveling wave amplifier. These interesting observations will be discussed, and the practical implications will be explored. This work was supported by AFOSR, ONR, and L-3 Communications Electron Devices.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007PhRvE..75b7301G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007PhRvE..75b7301G"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Absolute</span> instability of a viscous hollow jet</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Gañán-Calvo, Alfonso M.</p> <p>2007-02-01</p> <p>An investigation of the spatiotemporal stability of hollow jets in unbounded coflowing liquids, using a general dispersion relation previously derived, shows them to be <span class="hlt">absolutely</span> unstable for all physical values of the Reynolds and Weber numbers. The roots of the symmetry breakdown with respect to the liquid jet case, and the validity of asymptotic <span class="hlt">models</span> are here studied in detail. Asymptotic analyses for low and high Reynolds numbers are provided, showing that old and well-established limiting dispersion relations [J. W. S. Rayleigh, The Theory of Sound (Dover, New York, 1945); S. Chandrasekhar, Hydrodynamic and Hydromagnetic Stability (Dover, New York, 1961)] should be used with caution. In the creeping flow limit, the analysis shows that, if the hollow jet is filled with any finite density and viscosity fluid, a steady jet could be made arbitrarily small (compatible with the continuum hypothesis) if the coflowing liquid moves faster than a critical velocity.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012ESASP.699E..33G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012ESASP.699E..33G"><span id="translatedtitle">Applications of the International Space Station Probabilistic <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Assessment <span class="hlt">Model</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Grant, W.; Lutomski, M.</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>The International Space Station (ISS) program is continuing to expand the use of Probabilistic <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Assessments (PRAs). The use of PRAs in the ISS decision making process has proven very successful over the past 8 years. PRAs are used in the decision making process to address significant operational and design issues as well as to identify, communicate, and mitigate <span class="hlt">risks</span>. Future PRAs are expected to have major impacts on not only the ISS, but also future NASA programs and projects. Many of these PRAs will have their foundation in the current ISS PRA <span class="hlt">model</span> and in PRA trade studies that are being developed for the ISS Program. ISS PRAs have supported: -Development of reliability requirements for future NASA and commercial spacecraft, -Determination of inherent <span class="hlt">risk</span> for visiting vehicles, -Evaluation of potential crew rescue scenarios, -Operational requirements and alternatives, -Planning of Extravehicular activities (EV As) and, -Evaluation of robotics operations. This paper will describe some applications of the ISS PRA <span class="hlt">model</span> and how they impacted the final decisions that were made.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011JHyd..401...36K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011JHyd..401...36K"><span id="translatedtitle">Evolutionary systemic <span class="hlt">modelling</span> of practices on flood <span class="hlt">risk</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Khatibi, Rahman</p> <p>2011-04-01</p> <p>SummaryOver time since the prehistory, interactions with floods have undergone evolutionary transitions including aversion to flood <span class="hlt">risk</span>, flood defence and flood <span class="hlt">risk</span> management, each serving as a mindset or a paradigm. Historic data describing these interactions are used in this paper to "<span class="hlt">model</span>" these transitions and to explain them. This is a new bottom-up <span class="hlt">modelling</span> capability based on a set of postulates integrating: (i) systemic thinking where systems are effected by four types of feedback loops to be described in the paper, which include positive/negative feedback; and (ii) evolutionary thinking, where each feedback loop is associated with a "<span class="hlt">risk</span> mindset." These mindsets can undergo evolutionary transition from one to the next and the transition is largely driven by natural selection. After an evolutionary transition, lower mindsets do not necessarily disappear but can adapt and coexist with higher order loops. Based on the insight gained, the paper argues that (i) as the loops coexist pluralistically, systems increase in their complexity; (ii) there may be unexpected dynamic behaviours when a system is interacted with different types of feedback loops; and (iii) currently, these dynamic behaviours are overlooked, suggesting possible loopholes, bottlenecks or barriers and hence the motivation for this paper.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3605232','PMC'); return false;" href="http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3605232"><span id="translatedtitle">Transmission <span class="hlt">Risks</span> of Schistosomiasis Japonica: Extraction from Back-propagation Artificial Neural Network and Logistic Regression <span class="hlt">Model</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Xu, Jun-Fang; Xu, Jing; Li, Shi-Zhu; Jia, Tia-Wu; Huang, Xi-Bao; Zhang, Hua-Ming; Chen, Mei; Yang, Guo-Jing; Gao, Shu-Jing; Wang, Qing-Yun; Zhou, Xiao-Nong</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>Background The transmission of schistosomiasis japonica in a local setting is still poorly understood in the lake regions of the People's Republic of China (P. R. China), and its transmission patterns are closely related to human, social and economic factors. Methodology/Principal Findings We aimed to apply the integrated approach of artificial neural network (ANN) and logistic regression <span class="hlt">model</span> in assessment of transmission <span class="hlt">risks</span> of Schistosoma japonicum with epidemiological data collected from 2339 villagers from 1247 households in six villages of Jiangling County, P.R. China. By using the back-propagation (BP) of the ANN <span class="hlt">model</span>, 16 factors out of 27 factors were screened, and the top five factors ranked by the <span class="hlt">absolute</span> value of mean impact value (MIV) were mainly related to human behavior, i.e. integration of water contact history and infection history, family with past infection, history of water contact, infection history, and infection times. The top five factors screened by the logistic regression <span class="hlt">model</span> were mainly related to the social economics, i.e. village level, economic conditions of family, age group, education level, and infection times. The <span class="hlt">risk</span> of human infection with S. japonicum is higher in the population who are at age 15 or younger, or with lower education, or with the higher infection rate of the village, or with poor family, and in the population with more than one time to be infected. Conclusion/Significance Both BP artificial neural network and logistic regression <span class="hlt">model</span> established in a small scale suggested that individual behavior and socioeconomic status are the most important <span class="hlt">risk</span> factors in the transmission of schistosomiasis japonica. It was reviewed that the young population (≤15) in higher-<span class="hlt">risk</span> areas was the main target to be intervened for the disease transmission control. PMID:23556015</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20160010072','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20160010072"><span id="translatedtitle">Architecture for Integrated Medical <span class="hlt">Model</span> Dynamic Probabilistic <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Assessment</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Jaworske, D. A.; Myers, J. G.; Goodenow, D.; Young, M.; Arellano, J. D.</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>Probabilistic <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Assessment (PRA) is a <span class="hlt">modeling</span> tool used to predict potential outcomes of a complex system based on a statistical understanding of many initiating events. Utilizing a Monte Carlo method, thousands of instances of the <span class="hlt">model</span> are considered and outcomes are collected. PRA is considered static, utilizing probabilities alone to calculate outcomes. Dynamic Probabilistic <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Assessment (dPRA) is an advanced concept where <span class="hlt">modeling</span> predicts the outcomes of a complex system based not only on the probabilities of many initiating events, but also on a progression of dependencies brought about by progressing down a time line. Events are placed in a single time line, adding each event to a queue, as managed by a planner. Progression down the time line is guided by rules, as managed by a scheduler. The recently developed Integrated Medical <span class="hlt">Model</span> (IMM) summarizes astronaut health as governed by the probabilities of medical events and mitigation strategies. Managing the software architecture process provides a systematic means of creating, documenting, and communicating a software design early in the development process. The software architecture process begins with establishing requirements and the design is then derived from the requirements.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015PhyA..439....1O','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015PhyA..439....1O"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Absolute</span> negative mobility of interacting Brownian particles</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Ou, Ya-li; Hu, Cai-tian; Wu, Jian-chun; Ai, Bao-quan</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>Transport of interacting Brownian particles in a periodic potential is investigated in the presence of an ac force and a dc force. From Brownian dynamic simulations, we find that both the interaction between particles and the thermal fluctuations play key roles in the <span class="hlt">absolute</span> negative mobility (the particle noisily moves backwards against a small constant bias). When no the interaction acts, there is only one region where the <span class="hlt">absolute</span> negative mobility occurs. In the presence of the interaction, the <span class="hlt">absolute</span> negative mobility may appear in multiple regions. The weak interaction can be helpful for the <span class="hlt">absolute</span> negative mobility, while the strong interaction has a destructive impact on it.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26011007','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26011007"><span id="translatedtitle">Is Implantation of a Left Ventricular Assist Device in Patients With Critical or Impending Cardiogenic Shock an <span class="hlt">Absolute</span> Contraindication? Looking Back at Our Past Experience Trying to Identify Contraindicative <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Factors.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Dell'Aquila, Angelo Maria; Schneider, Stefan R B; Risso, Paolo; Welp, Henryk; Glockner, David G; Alles, Sebastian; Sindermann, Jürgen R; Scherer, Mirela</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>Poor survival has been demonstrated after ventricular assist device (VAD) implantation for Interagency Registry for Mechanically Assisted Circulatory Support (INTERMACS) profile 1 and 2 patients compared with more stable levels. However, <span class="hlt">risk</span> factors within this high-<span class="hlt">risk</span> cohort have not been determined so far. The aim of the present study was to identify <span class="hlt">risk</span> factors associated with this very high mortality rate. Between February 1993 and January 2013, 298 patients underwent VAD implantation in our institution. One hundred nine patients were in INTERMACS level 1 and 49 patients were in INTERMACS level 2 and were therefore defined as hemodynamically critical (overall 158 patients). Assist devices implanted were: HVAD HeartWare n = 18; Incor n = 11; VentrAssist n = 2; DeBakey n = 22; and pulsatile systems n = 105. After cumulative support duration of 815.35 months, Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed a survival of 63.9, 48.8, and 40.3% at 1, 6, and 12 months, respectively. Cox regression analyses identified age > 50 (P = 0.001, odds ratio [OR] 2.48), white blood cell count > 13.000/μL (P = 0.01, OR 2.06), preoperative renal replacement therapy (P = 0.001, OR 2.63), and postcardiotomy failure (P < 0.001, OR 2.79) as independent predictors of mortality. Of note, last generation VADs were not associated with significantly better 6-month survival (P = 0.59). Patients without the aforementioned <span class="hlt">risk</span> factors could yield a survival of 79.2% at 6 months. This single-center experience shows that VAD implantation in hemodynamically unstable patients generally results in poor early outcome, even in third-generation pumps. However, avoiding the aforementioned <span class="hlt">risk</span> factors could result in improved outcome. PMID:26011007</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20130000739','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20130000739"><span id="translatedtitle">GERMcode: A Stochastic <span class="hlt">Model</span> for Space Radiation <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Assessment</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Ponomarev, Artem L.; Cucinotta, Francis A.</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>A new computer <span class="hlt">model</span>, the GCR Event-based <span class="hlt">Risk</span> <span class="hlt">Model</span> code (GERMcode), was developed to describe biophysical events from high-energy protons and high charge and energy (HZE) particles that have been studied at the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) for the purpose of simulating space radiation biological effects. In the GERMcode, the biophysical description of the passage of HZE particles in tissue and shielding materials is made with a stochastic approach that includes both particle track structure and nuclear interactions. The GERMcode accounts for the major nuclear interaction processes of importance for describing heavy ion beams, including nuclear fragmentation, elastic scattering, and knockout-cascade processes by using the quantum multiple scattering fragmentation (QMSFRG) <span class="hlt">model</span>. The QMSFRG <span class="hlt">model</span> has been shown to be in excellent agreement with available experimental data for nuclear fragmentation cross sections. For NSRL applications, the GERMcode evaluates a set of biophysical properties, such as the Poisson distribution of particles or delta-ray hits for a given cellular area and particle dose, the radial dose on tissue, and the frequency distribution of energy deposition in a DNA volume. By utilizing the ProE/Fishbowl ray-tracing analysis, the GERMcode will be used as a bi-directional radiation transport <span class="hlt">model</span> for future spacecraft shielding analysis in support of Mars mission <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessments. Recent radiobiological experiments suggest the need for new approaches to <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment that include time-dependent biological events due to the signaling times for activation and relaxation of biological processes in cells and tissue. Thus, the tracking of the temporal and spatial distribution of events in tissue is a major goal of the GERMcode in support of the simulation of biological processes important in GCR <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessments. In order to validate our approach, basic radiobiological responses such as cell survival curves, mutation, chromosomal</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012EGUGA..14.6902E','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012EGUGA..14.6902E"><span id="translatedtitle">Collaborative <span class="hlt">modelling</span> for interactive participation in urban flood <span class="hlt">risk</span> management</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Evers, M.</p> <p>2012-04-01</p> <p>This paper presents an attempt to enhance the role of local stakeholders in dealing with urban floods. The concept is based on the DIANE-CM project (Decentralised Integrated Analysis and Enhancement of Awareness through Collaborative <span class="hlt">Modelling</span> and Management of Flood <span class="hlt">Risk</span>) of the ERANET CRUE programme. The main objective of the project was to develop and test the advanced methodology for enhancing the resilience of the local communities to flooding by a participative and interactive approach. Through collaborative <span class="hlt">modelling</span>, a social learning process was initiated which will enhance the social capacity of the stakeholders due to the interaction process. The other aim of the project was to better understand how data from hazard and vulnerability analyses and improved maps, as well as from the near real time flood prediction, can be used to initiate a public dialogue (i.e. collaborative mapping and planning activities) in order to carry out more informed and shared decision making processes and to enhance flood <span class="hlt">risk</span> awareness - which will improve the flood resilience situation. The concept of collaborative <span class="hlt">modelling</span> was applied in two case studies: (1) the Roding river/Cranbrook catchment in the UK, with focus on pluvial flooding, and (2) the Alster catchment in Germany, with focus on fluvial flooding.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li class="active"><span>20</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_20 --> <div id="page_21" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li class="active"><span>21</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="401"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27052112','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27052112"><span id="translatedtitle">The Leakage <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Monetization <span class="hlt">Model</span> for Geologic CO2 Storage.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Bielicki, Jeffrey M; Pollak, Melisa F; Deng, Hang; Wilson, Elizabeth J; Fitts, Jeffrey P; Peters, Catherine A</p> <p>2016-05-17</p> <p>We developed the Leakage <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Monetization <span class="hlt">Model</span> (LRiMM) which integrates simulation of CO2 leakage from geologic CO2 storage reservoirs with estimation of monetized leakage <span class="hlt">risk</span> (MLR). Using geospatial data, LRiMM quantifies financial responsibility if leaked CO2 or brine interferes with subsurface resources, and estimates the MLR reduction achievable by remediating leaks. We demonstrate LRiMM with simulations of 30 years of injection into the Mt. Simon sandstone at two locations that differ primarily in their proximity to existing wells that could be leakage pathways. The peak MLR for the site nearest the leakage pathways ($7.5/tCO2) was 190x larger than for the farther injection site, illustrating how careful siting would minimize MLR in heavily used sedimentary basins. Our MLR projections are at least an order of magnitude below overall CO2 storage costs at well-sited locations, but some stakeholders may incur substantial costs. Reliable methods to detect and remediate leaks could further minimize MLR. For both sites, the <span class="hlt">risk</span> of CO2 migrating to potable aquifers or reaching the atmosphere was negligible due to secondary trapping, whereby multiple impervious sedimentary layers trap CO2 that has leaked through the primary seal of the storage formation. PMID:27052112</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26908057','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26908057"><span id="translatedtitle">A <span class="hlt">Model</span> to Predict the <span class="hlt">Risk</span> of Keratinocyte Carcinomas.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Whiteman, David C; Thompson, Bridie S; Thrift, Aaron P; Hughes, Maria-Celia; Muranushi, Chiho; Neale, Rachel E; Green, Adele C; Olsen, Catherine M</p> <p>2016-06-01</p> <p>Basal cell and squamous cell carcinomas of the skin are the commonest cancers in humans, yet no validated tools exist to estimate future <span class="hlt">risks</span> of developing keratinocyte carcinomas. To develop a prediction tool, we used baseline data from a prospective cohort study (n = 38,726) in Queensland, Australia, and used data linkage to capture all surgically excised keratinocyte carcinomas arising within the cohort. Predictive factors were identified through stepwise logistic regression <span class="hlt">models</span>. In secondary analyses, we derived separate <span class="hlt">models</span> within strata of prior skin cancer history, age, and sex. The primary <span class="hlt">model</span> included terms for 10 items. Factors with the strongest effects were >20 prior skin cancers excised (odds ratio 8.57, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 6.73-10.91), >50 skin lesions destroyed (odds ratio 3.37, 95% CI 2.85-3.99), age ≥ 70 years (odds ratio 3.47, 95% CI 2.53-4.77), and fair skin color (odds ratio 1.75, 95% CI 1.42-2.15). Discrimination in the validation dataset was high (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve 0.80, 95% CI 0.79-0.81) and the <span class="hlt">model</span> appeared well calibrated. Among those reporting no prior history of skin cancer, a similar <span class="hlt">model</span> with 10 factors predicted keratinocyte carcinoma events with reasonable discrimination (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve 0.72, 95% CI 0.70-0.75). Algorithms using self-reported patient data have high accuracy for predicting <span class="hlt">risks</span> of keratinocyte carcinomas. PMID:26908057</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/9415','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/9415"><span id="translatedtitle">Documentation of the Ecological <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Assessment Computer <span class="hlt">Model</span> ECORSK.5</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Anthony F. Gallegos; Gilbert J. Gonzales</p> <p>1999-06-01</p> <p>The FORTRAN77 ecological <span class="hlt">risk</span> computer <span class="hlt">model</span>--ECORSK.5--has been used to estimate the potential toxicity of surficial deposits of radioactive and non-radioactive contaminants to several threatened and endangered (T and E) species at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). These analyses to date include preliminary toxicity estimates for the Mexican spotted owl, the American peregrine falcon, the bald eagle, and the southwestern willow flycatcher. This work has been performed as required for the Record of Decision for the construction of the Dual Axis Radiographic Hydrodynamic Test (DARHT) Facility at LANL as part of the Environmental Impact Statement. The <span class="hlt">model</span> is dependent on the use of the geographic information system and associated software--ARC/INFO--and has been used in conjunction with LANL's Facility for Information Management and Display (FIMAD) contaminant database. The integration of FIMAD data and ARC/INFO using ECORSK.5 allows the generation of spatial information from a gridded area of potential exposure called an Ecological Exposure Unit. ECORSK.5 was used to simulate exposures using a modified Environmental Protection Agency Quotient Method. The <span class="hlt">model</span> can handle a large number of contaminants within the home range of T and E species. This integration results in the production of hazard indices which, when compared to <span class="hlt">risk</span> evaluation criteria, estimate the potential for impact from consumption of contaminants in food and ingestion of soil. The assessment is considered a Tier-2 type of analysis. This report summarizes and documents the ECORSK.5 code, the mathematical <span class="hlt">models</span> used in the development of ECORSK.5, and the input and other requirements for its operation. Other auxiliary FORTRAN 77 codes used for processing and graphing output from ECORSK.5 are also discussed. The reader may refer to reports cited in the introduction to obtain greater detail on past applications of ECORSK.5 and assumptions used in deriving <span class="hlt">model</span> parameters.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20060044287&hterms=metrology&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D40%26Ntt%3Dmetrology','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20060044287&hterms=metrology&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D40%26Ntt%3Dmetrology"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Absolute</span> optical metrology : nanometers to kilometers</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Dubovitsky, Serge; Lay, O. P.; Peters, R. D.; Liebe, C. C.</p> <p>2005-01-01</p> <p>We provide and overview of the developments in the field of high-accuracy <span class="hlt">absolute</span> optical metrology with emphasis on space-based applications. Specific work on the Modulation Sideband Technology for <span class="hlt">Absolute</span> Ranging (MSTAR) sensor is described along with novel applications of the sensor.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/1261596','DOE-PATENT-XML'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/1261596"><span id="translatedtitle">Monolithically integrated <span class="hlt">absolute</span> frequency comb laser system</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/doepatents">DOEpatents</a></p> <p>Wanke, Michael C.</p> <p>2016-07-12</p> <p>Rather than down-convert optical frequencies, a QCL laser system directly generates a THz frequency comb in a compact monolithically integrated chip that can be locked to an <span class="hlt">absolute</span> frequency without the need of a frequency-comb synthesizer. The monolithic, <span class="hlt">absolute</span> frequency comb can provide a THz frequency reference and tool for high-resolution broad band spectroscopy.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://eric.ed.gov/?q=VALUE+AND+ABSOLUTE&pg=2&id=EJ1050985','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://eric.ed.gov/?q=VALUE+AND+ABSOLUTE&pg=2&id=EJ1050985"><span id="translatedtitle">Introducing the Mean <span class="hlt">Absolute</span> Deviation "Effect" Size</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Gorard, Stephen</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>This paper revisits the use of effect sizes in the analysis of experimental and similar results, and reminds readers of the relative advantages of the mean <span class="hlt">absolute</span> deviation as a measure of variation, as opposed to the more complex standard deviation. The mean <span class="hlt">absolute</span> deviation is easier to use and understand, and more tolerant of extreme…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/EJ853800.pdf','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/EJ853800.pdf"><span id="translatedtitle">Investigating <span class="hlt">Absolute</span> Value: A Real World Application</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Kidd, Margaret; Pagni, David</p> <p>2009-01-01</p> <p>Making connections between various representations is important in mathematics. In this article, the authors discuss the numeric, algebraic, and graphical representations of sums of <span class="hlt">absolute</span> values of linear functions. The initial explanations are accessible to all students who have experience graphing and who understand that <span class="hlt">absolute</span> value simply…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://eric.ed.gov/?q=happiness&pg=7&id=EJ804151','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://eric.ed.gov/?q=happiness&pg=7&id=EJ804151"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Absolute</span> Income, Relative Income, and Happiness</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Ball, Richard; Chernova, Kateryna</p> <p>2008-01-01</p> <p>This paper uses data from the World Values Survey to investigate how an individual's self-reported happiness is related to (i) the level of her income in <span class="hlt">absolute</span> terms, and (ii) the level of her income relative to other people in her country. The main findings are that (i) both <span class="hlt">absolute</span> and relative income are positively and significantly…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=1566756','PMC'); return false;" href="http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=1566756"><span id="translatedtitle">Applications of physiologic pharmacokinetic <span class="hlt">modeling</span> in carcinogenic <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Krewski, D; Withey, J R; Ku, L F; Andersen, M E</p> <p>1994-01-01</p> <p>The use of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) <span class="hlt">models</span> has been proposed as a means of estimating the dose of the reactive metabolites of carcinogenic xenobiotics reaching target tissues, thereby affording an opportunity to base estimates of potential cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span> on tissue dose rather than external levels of exposure. In this article, we demonstrate how a PBPK <span class="hlt">model</span> can be constructed by specifying mass-balance equations for each physiological compartment included in the <span class="hlt">model</span>. In general, this leads to a system of nonlinear partial differential equations with which to characterize the compartment system. These equations then can be solved numerically to determine the concentration of metabolites in each compartment as functions of time. In the special case of a linear pharmacokinetic system, we present simple closed-form expressions for the area under the concentration-time curves (AUC) in individual tissue compartments. A general relationship between the AUC in blood and other tissue compartments is also established. These results are of use in identifying those parameters in the <span class="hlt">models</span> that characterize the integrated tissue dose, and which should therefore be the primary focus of sensitivity analyses. Applications of PBPK <span class="hlt">modeling</span> for purposes of tissue dosimetry are reviewed, including <span class="hlt">models</span> developed for methylene chloride, ethylene oxide, 1,4-dioxane, 1-nitropyrene, as well as polychlorinated biphenyls, dioxins, and furans. Special considerations in PBPK <span class="hlt">modeling</span> related to aging, topical absorption, pregnancy, and mixed exposures are discussed. The linkage between pharmacokinetic <span class="hlt">models</span> used for tissue dosimetry and pharmacodynamic <span class="hlt">models</span> for neoplastic transformation of stem cells in the target tissue is explored. PMID:7737040</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1998APS..DFD..JF05D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1998APS..DFD..JF05D"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Absolute</span> and Convective Instability in Fluid-Conveying Flexible Pipes</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>de Langre, E.; Ouvrard, A. E.</p> <p>1998-11-01</p> <p>The effect of internal plug flow on the lateral stability of fluid conveying flexible pipes is investigated by determining the <span class="hlt">absolute</span>/convective nature of the instability from the analytically derived linear dispersion relation. The fluid-structure interaction is <span class="hlt">modeled</span> following the work of Gregory and Paidoussis (1966). The different domains of stability, convective instability, and <span class="hlt">absolute</span> instability are explicitly derived in parameter space. The effect of flow velocity, mass ratio between the fluid and the structure, stiffness of the elastic foundation and axial tension is considered. <span class="hlt">Absolute</span> instability prevails over a wide range of parameters. Convective instability only takes place at very high mass ratio, small stiffness and small axial tension. Relation is made with previous work of Brazier-Smith & Scott (1984) and Crighton (1991), considered here as a short wave approximation.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3674938','PMC'); return false;" href="http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3674938"><span id="translatedtitle">Modified social ecological <span class="hlt">model</span>: a tool to guide the assessment of the <span class="hlt">risks</span> and <span class="hlt">risk</span> contexts of HIV epidemics</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p></p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>Background Social and structural factors are now well accepted as determinants of HIV vulnerabilities. These factors are representative of social, economic, organizational and political inequities. Associated with an improved understanding of multiple levels of HIV <span class="hlt">risk</span> has been the recognition of the need to implement multi-level HIV prevention strategies. Prevention sciences research and programming aiming to decrease HIV incidence requires epidemiologic studies to collect data on multiple levels of <span class="hlt">risk</span> to inform combination HIV prevention packages. Discussion Proximal individual-level <span class="hlt">risks</span>, such as sharing injection devices and unprotected penile-vaginal or penile-anal sex, are necessary in mediating HIV acquisition and transmission. However, higher order social and structural-level <span class="hlt">risks</span> can facilitate or reduce HIV transmission on population levels. Data characterizing these <span class="hlt">risks</span> is often far more actionable than characterizing individual-level <span class="hlt">risks</span>. We propose a modified social ecological <span class="hlt">model</span> (MSEM) to help visualize multi-level domains of HIV infection <span class="hlt">risks</span> and guide the development of epidemiologic HIV studies. Such a <span class="hlt">model</span> may inform research in epidemiology and prevention sciences, particularly for key populations including men who have sex with men (MSM), people who inject drugs (PID), and sex workers. The MSEM builds on existing frameworks by examining multi-level <span class="hlt">risk</span> contexts for HIV infection and situating individual HIV infection <span class="hlt">risks</span> within wider network, community, and public policy contexts as well as epidemic stage. The utility of the MSEM is demonstrated with case studies of HIV <span class="hlt">risk</span> among PID and MSM. Summary The MSEM is a flexible <span class="hlt">model</span> for guiding epidemiologic studies among key populations at <span class="hlt">risk</span> for HIV in diverse sociocultural contexts. Successful HIV prevention strategies for key populations require effective integration of evidence-based biomedical, behavioral, and structural interventions. While the focus of epidemiologic</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=190997&keyword=Michel&actType=&TIMSType=+&TIMSSubTypeID=&DEID=&epaNumber=&ntisID=&archiveStatus=Both&ombCat=Any&dateBeginCreated=&dateEndCreated=&dateBeginPublishedPresented=&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&dateBeginCompleted=&dateEndCompleted=&personID=&role=Any&journalID=&publisherID=&sortBy=revisionDate&count=50&CFID=76765583&CFTOKEN=26279946','EPA-EIMS'); return false;" href="http://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=190997&keyword=Michel&actType=&TIMSType=+&TIMSSubTypeID=&DEID=&epaNumber=&ntisID=&archiveStatus=Both&ombCat=Any&dateBeginCreated=&dateEndCreated=&dateBeginPublishedPresented=&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&dateBeginCompleted=&dateEndCompleted=&personID=&role=Any&journalID=&publisherID=&sortBy=revisionDate&count=50&CFID=76765583&CFTOKEN=26279946"><span id="translatedtitle">Development of good <span class="hlt">modelling</span> practice for phsiologically based pharmacokinetic <span class="hlt">models</span> for use in <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment: The first steps</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://oaspub.epa.gov/eims/query.page">EPA Science Inventory</a></p> <p></p> <p></p> <p>The increasing use of tissue dosimetry estimated using pharmacokinetic <span class="hlt">models</span> in chemical <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessments in multiple countries necessitates the need to develop internationally recognized good <span class="hlt">modelling</span> practices. These practices would facilitate sharing of <span class="hlt">models</span> and <span class="hlt">model</span> eva...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19880033615&hterms=VALUE+ABSOLUTE&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D40%26Ntt%3DVALUE%2BABSOLUTE','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19880033615&hterms=VALUE+ABSOLUTE&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D40%26Ntt%3DVALUE%2BABSOLUTE"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Absolute</span> instability of the Gaussian wake profile</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Hultgren, Lennart S.; Aggarwal, Arun K.</p> <p>1987-01-01</p> <p>Linear parallel-flow stability theory has been used to investigate the effect of viscosity on the local <span class="hlt">absolute</span> instability of a family of wake profiles with a Gaussian velocity distribution. The type of local instability, i.e., convective or <span class="hlt">absolute</span>, is determined by the location of a branch-point singularity with zero group velocity of the complex dispersion relation for the instability waves. The effects of viscosity were found to be weak for values of the wake Reynolds number, based on the center-line velocity defect and the wake half-width, larger than about 400. <span class="hlt">Absolute</span> instability occurs only for sufficiently large values of the center-line wake defect. The critical value of this parameter increases with decreasing wake Reynolds number, thereby indicating a shrinking region of <span class="hlt">absolute</span> instability with decreasing wake Reynolds number. If backflow is not allowed, <span class="hlt">absolute</span> instability does not occur for wake Reynolds numbers smaller than about 38.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005AGUFM.S23C..03M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005AGUFM.S23C..03M"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Modeling</span> financial disaster <span class="hlt">risk</span> management in developing countries</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Mechler, R.; Hochrainer, S.; Pflug, G.; Linnerooth-Bayer, J.</p> <p>2005-12-01</p> <p>The public sector plays a major role in reducing the long-term economic repercussions of disasters by repairing damaged infrastructure and providing financial assistance to households and businesses. If critical infrastructure is not repaired in a timely manner, there can be serious effects on the economy and the livelihoods of the population. The repair of public infrastructure, however, can be a significant drain on public budgets especially in developing and transition countries. Developing country governments frequently lack the liquidity, even including international aid and loans, to fully repair damaged critical public infrastructure or provide sufficient support to households and businesses for their recovery. The earthquake in Gujarat, and other recent cases of government post-disaster liquidity crises, have sounded an alarm, prompting financial development organizations, such as the World Bank, among others, to call for greater attention to reducing financial vulnerability and increasing the resilience of the public sector. This talk reports on a <span class="hlt">model</span> designed to illustrate the tradeoffs and choices a developing country must make in financially managing the economic <span class="hlt">risks</span> due to natural disasters. Budgetary resources allocated to pre-disaster <span class="hlt">risk</span> management strategies, such as loss mitigation measures, a catastrophe reserve fund, insurance and contingent credit arrangements for public assets, reduce the probability of financing gaps - the inability of governments to meet their full obligations in providing relief to private victims and restoring public infrastructure - or prevent the deterioration of the ability to undertake additional borrowing without incurring a debt crisis. The <span class="hlt">model</span> -which is equipped with a graphical interface - can be a helpful tool for building capacity of policy makers for developing and assessing public financing strategies for disaster <span class="hlt">risk</span> by indicating the respective costs and consequences of financing alternatives.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/503510','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/503510"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Modeling</span> human <span class="hlt">risk</span>: Cell & molecular biology in context</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p></p> <p>1997-06-01</p> <p>It is anticipated that early in the next century manned missions into outer space will occur, with a mission to Mars scheduled between 2015 and 2020. However, before such missions can be undertaken, a realistic estimation of the potential <span class="hlt">risks</span> to the flight crews is required. One of the uncertainties remaining in this <span class="hlt">risk</span> estimation is that posed by the effects of exposure to the radiation environment of outer space. Although the composition of this environment is fairly well understood, the biological effects arising from exposure to it are not. The reasons for this are three-fold: (1) A small but highly significant component of the radiation spectrum in outer space consists of highly charged, high energy (HZE) particles which are not routinely experienced on earth, and for which there are insufficient data on biological effects; (2) Most studies on the biological effects of radiation to date have been high-dose, high dose-rate, whereas in space, with the exception of solar particle events, radiation exposures will be low-dose, low dose-rate; (3) Although it has been established that the virtual absence of gravity in space has a profound effect on human physiology, it is not clear whether these effects will act synergistically with those of radiation exposure. A select panel will evaluate the utilizing experiments and <span class="hlt">models</span> to accurately predict the <span class="hlt">risks</span> associated with exposure to HZE particles. Topics of research include cellular and tissue response, health effects associated with radiation damage, <span class="hlt">model</span> animal systems, and critical markers of Radiation response.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20110015002','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20110015002"><span id="translatedtitle">Applications of the International Space Station Probabilistic <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Assessment <span class="hlt">Model</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Grant, Warren; Lutomski, Michael G.</p> <p>2011-01-01</p> <p>Recently the International Space Station (ISS) has incorporated more Probabilistic <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Assessments (PRAs) in the decision making process for significant issues. Future PRAs will have major impact to ISS and future spacecraft development and operations. These PRAs will have their foundation in the current complete ISS PRA <span class="hlt">model</span> and the current PRA trade studies that are being analyzed as requested by ISS Program stakeholders. ISS PRAs have recently helped in the decision making process for determining reliability requirements for future NASA spacecraft and commercial spacecraft, making crew rescue decisions, as well as making operational requirements for ISS orbital orientation, planning Extravehicular activities (EVAs) and robotic operations. This paper will describe some applications of the ISS PRA <span class="hlt">model</span> and how they impacted the final decision. This paper will discuss future analysis topics such as life extension, requirements of new commercial vehicles visiting ISS.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012EGUGA..14.9081P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012EGUGA..14.9081P"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Modeling</span> urban flood <span class="hlt">risk</span> territories for Riga city</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Piliksere, A.; Sennikovs, J.; Virbulis, J.; Bethers, U.; Bethers, P.; Valainis, A.</p> <p>2012-04-01</p> <p>Riga, the capital of Latvia, is located on River Daugava at the Gulf of Riga. The main flooding <span class="hlt">risks</span> of Riga city are: (1) storm caused water setup in South part of Gulf of Riga (storm event), (2) water level increase caused by Daugava River discharge maximums (spring snow melting event) and (3) strong rainfall or rapid snow melting in densely populated urban areas. The first two flooding factors were discussed previously (Piliksere et al, 2011). The aims of the study were (1) the identification of the flood <span class="hlt">risk</span> situations in densely populated areas, (2) the quantification of the flooding scenarios caused by rain and snow melting events of different return periods nowadays, in the near future (2021-2050), far future (2071-2100) taking into account the projections of climate change, (3) estimation of groundwater level for Riga city, (4) the building and calibration of the hydrological mathematical <span class="hlt">model</span> based on SWMM (EPA, 2004) for the domain potentially vulnerable for rain and snow melt flooding events, (5) the calculation of rain and snow melting flood events with different return periods, (6) mapping the potentially flooded areas on a fine grid. The time series of short term precipitation events during warm time period of year (id est. rain events) were analyzed for 35 year long time period. Annual maxima of precipitation intensity for events with different duration (5 min; 15 min; 1h; 3h; 6h; 12h; 1 day; 2 days; 4 days; 10 days) were calculated. The time series of long term simultaneous precipitation data and observations of the reduction of thickness of snow cover were analyzed for 27 year long time period. Snow thawing periods were detected and maximum of snow melting intensity for events with different intensity (1day; 2 days; 4 days; 7 days; 10 days) were calculated. According to the occurrence probability six scenarios for each event for nowadays, near and far future with return period once in 5, 10, 20, 50, 100 and 200 years were constructed based on</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70126414','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70126414"><span id="translatedtitle">Foraging and predation <span class="hlt">risk</span> for larval cisco (Coregonus artedi) in Lake Superior: a <span class="hlt">modelling</span> synthesis of empirical survey data</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Myers, Jared T.; Yule, Daniel L.; Jones, Michael L.; Quinlan, Henry R.; Berglund, Eric K.</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>The relative importance of predation and food availability as contributors to larval cisco (Coregonus artedi) mortality in Lake Superior were investigated using a visual foraging <span class="hlt">model</span> to evaluate potential predation pressure by rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) and a bioenergetic <span class="hlt">model</span> to evaluate potential starvation <span class="hlt">risk</span>. The <span class="hlt">models</span> were informed by observations of rainbow smelt, larval cisco, and zooplankton abundance at three Lake Superior locations during the period of spring larval cisco emergence and surface-oriented foraging. Predation <span class="hlt">risk</span> was highest at Black Bay, ON, where average rainbow smelt densities in the uppermost 10 m of the water column were >1000 ha−1. Turbid conditions at the Twin Ports, WI-MN, affected larval cisco predation <span class="hlt">risk</span> because rainbow smelt remained suspended in the upper water column during daylight, placing them alongside larval cisco during both day and night hours. Predation <span class="hlt">risk</span> was low at Cornucopia, WI, owing to low smelt densities (<400 ha−1) and deep light penetration, which kept rainbow smelt near the lakebed and far from larvae during daylight. In situ zooplankton density estimates were low compared to the values used to develop the larval coregonid bioenergetics <span class="hlt">model</span>, leading to predictions of negative growth rates for 10 mm larvae at all three locations. The <span class="hlt">model</span> predicted that 15 mm larvae were capable of attaining positive growth at Cornucopia and the Twin Ports where low water temperatures (2–6 °C) decreased their metabolic costs. Larval prey resources were highest at Black Bay but warmer water temperatures there offset the benefit of increased prey availability. A sensitivity analysis performed on the rainbow smelt visual foraging <span class="hlt">model</span> showed that it was relatively insensitive, while the coregonid bioenergetics <span class="hlt">model</span> showed that the <span class="hlt">absolute</span> growth rate predictions were highly sensitive to input parameters (i.e., 20% parameter perturbation led to order of magnitude differences in <span class="hlt">model</span> estimates). Our</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26020518','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26020518"><span id="translatedtitle">Development of relative <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">model</span> for regional groundwater <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment: a case study in the lower Liaohe River Plain, China.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Li, Xianbo; Zuo, Rui; Teng, Yanguo; Wang, Jinsheng; Wang, Bin</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Increasing pressure on water supply worldwide, especially in arid areas, has resulted in groundwater overexploitation and contamination, and subsequent deterioration of the groundwater quality and threats to public health. Environmental <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment of regional groundwater is an important tool for groundwater protection. This study presents a new approach for assessing the environmental <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment of regional groundwater. It was carried out with a relative <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">model</span> (RRM) coupled with a series of indices, such as a groundwater vulnerability index, which includes receptor analysis, <span class="hlt">risk</span> source analysis, <span class="hlt">risk</span> exposure and hazard analysis, <span class="hlt">risk</span> characterization, and management of groundwater. The <span class="hlt">risk</span> map is a product of the probability of environmental contamination and impact. The reliability of the RRM was verified using Monte Carlo analysis. This approach was applied to the lower Liaohe River Plain (LLRP), northeastern China, which covers 23604 km2. A spatial analysis tool within GIS which was used to interpolate and manipulate the data to develop environmental <span class="hlt">risk</span> maps of regional groundwater, divided the level of <span class="hlt">risk</span> from high to low into five ranks (V, IV, III, II, I). The results indicate that areas of relative <span class="hlt">risk</span> rank (RRR) V cover 2324 km2, covering 9.8% of the area; RRR IV covers 3986 km2, accounting for 16.9% of the area. It is a new and appropriate method for regional groundwater resource management and land use planning, and is a rapid and effective tool for improving strategic decision making to protect groundwater and reduce environmental <span class="hlt">risk</span>. PMID:26020518</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4447276','PMC'); return false;" href="http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4447276"><span id="translatedtitle">Development of Relative <span class="hlt">Risk</span> <span class="hlt">Model</span> for Regional Groundwater <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Assessment: A Case Study in the Lower Liaohe River Plain, China</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Li, Xianbo; Zuo, Rui; Teng, Yanguo; Wang, Jinsheng; Wang, Bin</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Increasing pressure on water supply worldwide, especially in arid areas, has resulted in groundwater overexploitation and contamination, and subsequent deterioration of the groundwater quality and threats to public health. Environmental <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment of regional groundwater is an important tool for groundwater protection. This study presents a new approach for assessing the environmental <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment of regional groundwater. It was carried out with a relative <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">model</span> (RRM) coupled with a series of indices, such as a groundwater vulnerability index, which includes receptor analysis, <span class="hlt">risk</span> source analysis, <span class="hlt">risk</span> exposure and hazard analysis, <span class="hlt">risk</span> characterization, and management of groundwater. The <span class="hlt">risk</span> map is a product of the probability of environmental contamination and impact. The reliability of the RRM was verified using Monte Carlo analysis. This approach was applied to the lower Liaohe River Plain (LLRP), northeastern China, which covers 23604 km2. A spatial analysis tool within GIS which was used to interpolate and manipulate the data to develop environmental <span class="hlt">risk</span> maps of regional groundwater, divided the level of <span class="hlt">risk</span> from high to low into five ranks (V, IV, III, II, I). The results indicate that areas of relative <span class="hlt">risk</span> rank (RRR) V cover 2324 km2, covering 9.8% of the area; RRR IV covers 3986 km2, accounting for 16.9% of the area. It is a new and appropriate method for regional groundwater resource management and land use planning, and is a rapid and effective tool for improving strategic decision making to protect groundwater and reduce environmental <span class="hlt">risk</span>. PMID:26020518</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li class="active"><span>21</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_21 --> <div id="page_22" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li class="active"><span>22</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_24");'>24</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="421"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/367508','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/367508"><span id="translatedtitle">Phase two of Site 300`s ecological <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment: <span class="hlt">Model</span> verification and <span class="hlt">risk</span> management</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Carlson, T.M.; Gregory, S.D.</p> <p>1995-12-31</p> <p>The authors completed the baseline ecological <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment (ERA) for Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory`s Site 300 in 1993. Using data collection and <span class="hlt">modeling</span> techniques adapted from the human health <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment (HRA), they evaluated the potential hazard of contaminants in environmental media to ecological receptors. They identified potential hazards to (1) aquatic invertebrates from heavy metal contaminants in surface water, (2) burrowing vertebrates from contaminants volatilizing from subsurface soil into burrow air, and (3) grazing deer and burrowing vertebrates from cadmium contamination in surface soil. They recently began collecting data to refine the estimates of potential hazard to these ecological receptors. Bioassay results form the surface water failed to verify a hazard to aquatic invertebrates. Soil vapor surveys of subsurface burrows did verify the presence of high concentrations of volatile organic compounds (VOCs). However, they have not yet verified a true impact on the burrowing populations. The authors also completed an extensive surface soil sampling program, which identified local hot spots of cadmium contamination. In addition, they have been collecting data on the land use patterns of the deer population. Their data indicate that deer do not typically use those areas with cadmium surface soil contamination. Information from this phase of the ERA, along with the results of the HRA, will direct the selection of remedial alternatives for the site. For the ecological receptors, remedial alternatives include developing a <span class="hlt">risk</span> management program which includes ensuring that (1) sensitive burrowing species (such as rare or endangered species) do not use areas of surface or subsurface contamination, and (2) deer populations do not use areas of surface soil contamination.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AdWR...83..160E','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AdWR...83..160E"><span id="translatedtitle">STakeholder-Objective <span class="hlt">Risk</span> <span class="hlt">Model</span> (STORM): Determining the aggregated <span class="hlt">risk</span> of multiple contaminant hazards in groundwater well catchments</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Enzenhoefer, R.; Binning, P. J.; Nowak, W.</p> <p>2015-09-01</p> <p><span class="hlt">Risk</span> is often defined as the product of probability, vulnerability and value. Drinking water supply from groundwater abstraction is often at <span class="hlt">risk</span> due to multiple hazardous land use activities in the well catchment. Each hazard might or might not introduce contaminants into the subsurface at any point in time, which then affects the pumped quality upon transport through the aquifer. In such situations, estimating the overall <span class="hlt">risk</span> is not trivial, and three key questions emerge: (1) How to aggregate the impacts from different contaminants and spill locations to an overall, cumulative impact on the value at <span class="hlt">risk</span>? (2) How to properly account for the stochastic nature of spill events when converting the aggregated impact to a <span class="hlt">risk</span> estimate? (3) How will the overall <span class="hlt">risk</span> and subsequent decision making depend on stakeholder objectives, where stakeholder objectives refer to the values at <span class="hlt">risk</span>, <span class="hlt">risk</span> attitudes and <span class="hlt">risk</span> metrics that can vary between stakeholders. In this study, we provide a STakeholder-Objective <span class="hlt">Risk</span> <span class="hlt">Model</span> (STORM) for assessing the total aggregated <span class="hlt">risk</span>. Or concept is a quantitative, probabilistic and modular framework for simulation-based <span class="hlt">risk</span> estimation. It rests on the source-pathway-receptor concept, mass-discharge-based aggregation of stochastically occuring spill events, accounts for uncertainties in the involved flow and transport <span class="hlt">models</span> through Monte Carlo simulation, and can address different stakeholder objectives. We illustrate the application of STORM in a numerical test case inspired by a German drinking water catchment. As one may expect, the results depend strongly on the chosen stakeholder objectives, but they are equally sensitive to different approaches for <span class="hlt">risk</span> aggregation across different hazards, contaminant types, and over time.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2015AGUFM.H51E1422G&link_type=ABSTRACT','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2015AGUFM.H51E1422G&link_type=ABSTRACT"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Modelling</span> surface water flood <span class="hlt">risk</span> using coupled numerical and physical <span class="hlt">modelling</span> techniques</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Green, D. L.; Pattison, I.; Yu, D.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>Surface water (pluvial) flooding occurs due to intense precipitation events where rainfall cannot infiltrate into the sub-surface or drain via storm water systems. The perceived <span class="hlt">risk</span> appears to have increased in recent years with pluvial flood events seeming more severe and frequent within the UK. Surface water flood <span class="hlt">risk</span> currently accounts for one third of all UK flood <span class="hlt">risk</span>, with approximately two million people living in urban areas being at <span class="hlt">risk</span> of a 1 in 200 year flood event. Surface water flooding research often focuses upon using 1D, 2D or 1D-2D coupled numerical <span class="hlt">modelling</span> techniques to understand the extent, depth and severity of actual or hypothetical flood scenarios. Although much research has been conducted using numerical <span class="hlt">modelling</span>, field data available for <span class="hlt">model</span> calibration and validation is limited due to the complexities associated with data collection in surface water flood conditions. Ultimately, the data which numerical <span class="hlt">models</span> are based upon is often erroneous and inconclusive. Physical <span class="hlt">models</span> offer an alternative and innovative environment to collect data within. A controlled, closed system allows independent variables to be altered individually to investigate cause and effect relationships. Despite this, physical <span class="hlt">modelling</span> approaches are seldom used in surface water flooding research. Scaled laboratory experiments using a 9m2, two-tiered physical <span class="hlt">model</span> consisting of: (i) a mist nozzle type rainfall simulator able to simulate a range of rainfall intensities similar to those observed within the United Kingdom, and; (ii) a fully interchangeable, scaled plot surface have been conducted to investigate and quantify the influence of factors such as slope, impermeability, building density/configuration and storm dynamics on overland flow and rainfall-runoff patterns within a range of terrestrial surface conditions. Results obtained within the physical <span class="hlt">modelling</span> environment will be compared with numerical <span class="hlt">modelling</span> results using FloodMap (Yu & Lane, 2006</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/911165','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/911165"><span id="translatedtitle">Time-to-Compromise <span class="hlt">Model</span> for Cyber <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Reduction Estimation</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Miles A. McQueen; Wayne F. Boyer; Mark A. Flynn; George A. Beitel</p> <p>2005-09-01</p> <p>We propose a new <span class="hlt">model</span> for estimating the time to compromise a system component that is visible to an attacker. The <span class="hlt">model</span> provides an estimate of the expected value of the time-to-compromise as a function of known and visible vulnerabilities, and attacker skill level. The time-to-compromise random process <span class="hlt">model</span> is a composite of three subprocesses associated with attacker actions aimed at the exploitation of vulnerabilities. In a case study, the <span class="hlt">model</span> was used to aid in a <span class="hlt">risk</span> reduction estimate between a baseline Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system and the baseline system enhanced through a specific set of control system security remedial actions. For our case study, the total number of system vulnerabilities was reduced by 86% but the dominant attack path was through a component where the number of vulnerabilities was reduced by only 42% and the time-to-compromise of that component was increased by only 13% to 30% depending on attacker skill level.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25833822','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25833822"><span id="translatedtitle">Using toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic <span class="hlt">modeling</span> as an acute <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment refinement approach in vertebrate ecological <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Ducrot, Virginie; Ashauer, Roman; Bednarska, Agnieszka J; Hinarejos, Silvia; Thorbek, Pernille; Weyman, Gabriel</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>Recent guidance identified toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TK-TD) <span class="hlt">modeling</span> as a relevant approach for <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment refinement. Yet, its added value compared to other refinement options is not detailed, and how to conduct the <span class="hlt">modeling</span> appropriately is not explained. This case study addresses these issues through 2 examples of individual-level <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment for 2 hypothetical plant protection products: 1) evaluating the <span class="hlt">risk</span> for small granivorous birds and small omnivorous mammals of a single application, as a seed treatment in winter cereals, and 2) evaluating the <span class="hlt">risk</span> for fish after a pulsed treatment in the edge-of-field zone. Using acute test data, we conducted the first tier <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment as defined in the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) guidance. When first tier <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment highlighted a concern, refinement options were discussed. Cases where the use of <span class="hlt">models</span> should be preferred over other existing refinement approaches were highlighted. We then practically conducted the <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment refinement by using 2 different <span class="hlt">models</span> as examples. In example 1, a TK <span class="hlt">model</span> accounting for toxicokinetics and relevant feeding patterns in the skylark and in the wood mouse was used to predict internal doses of the hypothetical active ingredient in individuals, based on relevant feeding patterns in an in-crop situation, and identify the residue levels leading to mortality. In example 2, a TK-TD <span class="hlt">model</span> accounting for toxicokinetics, toxicodynamics, and relevant exposure patterns in the fathead minnow was used to predict the time-course of fish survival for relevant FOCUS SW exposure scenarios and identify which scenarios might lead to mortality. <span class="hlt">Models</span> were calibrated using available standard data and implemented to simulate the time-course of internal dose of active ingredient or survival for different exposure scenarios. Simulation results were discussed and used to derive the <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment refinement endpoints used for decision. Finally, we compared the</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009EGUGA..11.5489A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009EGUGA..11.5489A"><span id="translatedtitle">Application of wildfire simulation <span class="hlt">models</span> for <span class="hlt">risk</span> analysis</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Ager, A.; Finney, M.</p> <p>2009-04-01</p> <p>Wildfire simulation <span class="hlt">models</span> are being widely used by fire and fuels specialists in the U.S. to support tactical and strategic decisions related to the mitigation of wildfire <span class="hlt">risk</span>. Much of this application has resulted from the development of a minimum travel time (MTT) fire spread algorithm (M. Finney) that makes it computationally feasible to simulate thousands of fires and generate burn probability and intensity maps over large areas (10,000 - 2,000,000 ha). The MTT algorithm is parallelized for multi-threaded processing and is imbedded in a number of research and applied fire <span class="hlt">modeling</span> applications. High performance computers (e.g., 32-way 64 bit SMP) are typically used for MTT simulations, although the algorithm is also implemented in the 32 bit desktop FlamMap3 program (www.fire.org). Extensive testing has shown that this algorithm can replicate large fire boundaries in the heterogeneous landscapes that typify much of the wildlands in the western U.S. In this paper, we describe the application of the MTT algorithm to understand spatial patterns of burn probability (BP), and to analyze wildfire <span class="hlt">risk</span> to key human and ecological values. The work is focused on a federally-managed 2,000,000 ha landscape in the central interior region of Oregon State, USA. The fire-prone study area encompasses a wide array of topography and fuel types and a number of highly valued resources that are susceptible to fire. We quantitatively defined <span class="hlt">risk</span> as the product of the probability of a fire and the resulting consequence. Burn probabilities at specific intensity classes were estimated for each 100 x 100 m pixel by simulating 100,000 wildfires under burn conditions that replicated recent severe wildfire events that occurred under conditions where fire suppression was generally ineffective (97th percentile, August weather). We repeated the simulation under milder weather (70th percentile, August weather) to replicate a "wildland fire use scenario" where suppression is minimized to</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/20850160','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/20850160"><span id="translatedtitle">Dose-volume <span class="hlt">modeling</span> of the <span class="hlt">risk</span> of postoperative pulmonary complications among esophageal cancer patients treated with concurrent chemoradiotherapy followed by surgery</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Tucker, Susan L. . E-mail: sltucker@mdanderson.org; Liu, H. Helen; Wang, Shulian; Wei Xiong; Liao Zhongxing; Komaki, Ritsuko; Cox, James D.; Mohan, Radhe</p> <p>2006-11-01</p> <p>Purpose: The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of radiation dose distribution in the lung on the <span class="hlt">risk</span> of postoperative pulmonary complications among esophageal cancer patients. Methods and Materials: We analyzed data from 110 patients with esophageal cancer treated with concurrent chemoradiotherapy followed by surgery at our institution from 1998 to 2003. The endpoint for analysis was postsurgical pneumonia or acute respiratory distress syndrome. Dose-volume histograms (DVHs) and dose-mass histograms (DMHs) for the whole lung were used to fit normal-tissue complication probability (NTCP) <span class="hlt">models</span>, and the quality of fits were compared using bootstrap analysis. Results: Normal-tissue complication probability <span class="hlt">modeling</span> identified that the <span class="hlt">risk</span> of postoperative pulmonary complications was most significantly associated with small <span class="hlt">absolute</span> volumes of lung spared from doses {>=}5 Gy (VS5), that is, exposed to doses <5 Gy. However, bootstrap analysis found no significant difference between the quality of this <span class="hlt">model</span> and fits based on other dosimetric parameters, including mean lung dose, effective dose, and relative volume of lung receiving {>=}5 Gy, probably because of correlations among these factors. The choice of DVH vs. DMH or the use of fractionation correction did not significantly affect the results of the NTCP <span class="hlt">modeling</span>. The parameter values estimated for the Lyman NTCP <span class="hlt">model</span> were as follows (with 95% confidence intervals in parentheses): n = 1.85 (0.04, {infinity}), m = 0.55 (0.22, 1.02), and D {sub 5} = 17.5 Gy (9.4 Gy, 102 Gy). Conclusions: In this cohort of esophageal cancer patients, several dosimetric parameters including mean lung dose, effective dose, and <span class="hlt">absolute</span> volume of lung receiving <5 Gy provided similar descriptions of the <span class="hlt">risk</span> of postoperative pulmonary complications as a function of Radiation dose distribution in the lung.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23195792','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23195792"><span id="translatedtitle">Assessing the <span class="hlt">risk</span> of Legionnaires' disease: the inhalation exposure <span class="hlt">model</span> and the estimated <span class="hlt">risk</span> in residential bathrooms.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Azuma, Kenichi; Uchiyama, Iwao; Okumura, Jiro</p> <p>2013-02-01</p> <p>Legionella are widely found in the built environment. Patients with Legionnaires' disease have been increasing in Japan; however, health <span class="hlt">risks</span> from Legionella bacteria in the environment are not appropriately assessed. We performed a quantitative health <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment <span class="hlt">modeled</span> on residential bathrooms in the Adachi outbreak area and estimated <span class="hlt">risk</span> levels. The estimated <span class="hlt">risks</span> in the Adachi outbreak approximately corresponded to the <span class="hlt">risk</span> levels exponentially extrapolated into lower levels on the basis of infection and mortality rates calculated from actual outbreaks, suggesting that the <span class="hlt">model</span> of Legionnaires' disease in residential bathrooms was adequate to predict disease <span class="hlt">risk</span> for the evaluated outbreaks. Based on this <span class="hlt">model</span>, the infection and mortality <span class="hlt">risk</span> levels per year in 10 CFU/100 ml (100 CFU/L) of the Japanese water quality guideline value were approximately 10(-2) and 10(-5), respectively. However, acceptable <span class="hlt">risk</span> levels of infection and mortality from Legionnaires' disease should be adjusted to approximately 10(-4) and 10(-7), respectively, per year. Therefore, a reference value of 0.1 CFU/100 ml (1 CFU/L) as a water quality guideline for Legionella bacteria is recommended. This value is occasionally less than the actual detection limit. Legionella levels in water system should be maintained as low as reasonably achievable (<1 CFU/L). PMID:23195792</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23383711','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23383711"><span id="translatedtitle">Low-probability flood <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">modeling</span> for New York City.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Aerts, Jeroen C J H; Lin, Ning; Botzen, Wouter; Emanuel, Kerry; de Moel, Hans</p> <p>2013-05-01</p> <p>The devastating impact by Hurricane Sandy (2012) again showed New York City (NYC) is one of the most vulnerable cities to coastal flooding around the globe. The low-lying areas in NYC can be flooded by nor'easter storms and North Atlantic hurricanes. The few studies that have estimated potential flood damage for NYC base their damage estimates on only a single, or a few, possible flood events. The objective of this study is to assess the full distribution of hurricane flood <span class="hlt">risk</span> in NYC. This is done by calculating potential flood damage with a flood damage <span class="hlt">model</span> that uses many possible storms and surge heights as input. These storms are representative for the low-probability/high-impact flood hazard faced by the city. Exceedance probability-loss curves are constructed under different assumptions about the severity of flood damage. The estimated flood damage to buildings for NYC is between US$59 and 129 millions/year. The damage caused by a 1/100-year storm surge is within a range of US$2 bn-5 bn, while this is between US$5 bn and 11 bn for a 1/500-year storm surge. An analysis of flood <span class="hlt">risk</span> in each of the five boroughs of NYC finds that Brooklyn and Queens are the most vulnerable to flooding. This study examines several uncertainties in the various steps of the <span class="hlt">risk</span> analysis, which resulted in variations in flood damage estimations. These uncertainties include: the interpolation of flood depths; the use of different flood damage curves; and the influence of the spectra of characteristics of the simulated hurricanes. PMID:23383711</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015PhDT.......131M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015PhDT.......131M"><span id="translatedtitle">Climate and weather <span class="hlt">risk</span> in natural resource <span class="hlt">models</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Merrill, Nathaniel Henry</p> <p></p> <p>This work, consisting of three manuscripts, addresses natural resource management under <span class="hlt">risk</span> due to variation in climate and weather. In three distinct but theoretically related applications, I quantify the role of natural resources in stabilizing economic outcomes. In Manuscript 1, we address policy designed to effect the <span class="hlt">risk</span> of cyanobacteria blooms in a drinking water reservoir through watershed wide policy. Combining a hydrologic and economic <span class="hlt">model</span> for a watershed in Rhode Island, we solve for the efficient allocation of best management practices (BMPs) on livestock pastures to meet a monthly <span class="hlt">risk</span>-based as well as mean-based water quality objective. In order to solve for the efficient allocations of nutrient control effort, we optimize a probabilistically constrained integer-programming problem representing the choices made on each farm and the resultant conditions that support cyanobacteria blooms. In doing so, we employ a genetic algorithm (GA). We hypothesize that management based on controlling the upper tail of the probability distribution of phosphorus loading implies different efficient management actions as compared to controlling mean loading. We find a shift to more intense effort on fewer acres when a probabilistic objective is specified with cost savings of meeting <span class="hlt">risk</span> levels of up to 25% over mean loading based policies. Additionally, we illustrate the relative cost effectiveness of various policies designed to meet this <span class="hlt">risk</span>-based objective. Rainfall and the subsequent overland runoff is the source of transportation of nutrients to a receiving water body, with larger amounts of phosphorus moving in more intense rainfall events. We highlight the importance of this transportation mechanism by comparing policies under climate change scenarios, where the intensity of rainfall is projected to increase and the time series process of rainfall to change. In Manuscript 2, we introduce a new economic groundwater <span class="hlt">model</span> that incorporates the gradual shift</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015PhRvA..92e3827T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015PhRvA..92e3827T"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Absolute</span> optical instruments without spherical symmetry</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Tyc, Tomáš; Dao, H. L.; Danner, Aaron J.</p> <p>2015-11-01</p> <p>Until now, the known set of <span class="hlt">absolute</span> optical instruments has been limited to those containing high levels of symmetry. Here, we demonstrate a method of mathematically constructing refractive index profiles that result in asymmetric <span class="hlt">absolute</span> optical instruments. The method is based on the analogy between geometrical optics and classical mechanics and employs Lagrangians that separate in Cartesian coordinates. In addition, our method can be used to construct the index profiles of most previously known <span class="hlt">absolute</span> optical instruments, as well as infinitely many different ones.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://eric.ed.gov/?q=social+AND+amplification+AND+risk&id=EJ863410','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://eric.ed.gov/?q=social+AND+amplification+AND+risk&id=EJ863410"><span id="translatedtitle">Adolescents Exiting Homelessness over Two Years: The <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Amplification and Abatement <span class="hlt">Model</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Milburn, Norweeta G.; Rice, Eric; Rotheram-Borus, Mary Jane; Mallett, Shelley; Rosenthal, Doreen; Batterham, Phillip; May, Susanne J.; Witkin, Andrea; Duan, Naihua</p> <p>2009-01-01</p> <p>The <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Amplification and Abatement <span class="hlt">Model</span> (RAAM) demonstrates that negative contact with socializing agents amplify <span class="hlt">risk</span>, while positive contact abates <span class="hlt">risk</span> for homeless adolescents. To test this <span class="hlt">model</span>, the likelihood of exiting homelessness and returning to familial housing at 2 years and stably exiting over time are examined with longitudinal…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19278984','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19278984"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Risks</span> for early childhood caries analyzed by negative binomial <span class="hlt">models</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Thitasomakul, S; Piwat, S; Thearmontree, A; Chankanka, O; Pithpornchaiyakul, W; Madyusoh, S</p> <p>2009-02-01</p> <p>Because of the high incidence of early childhood caries (ECC), a longitudinal study to identify <span class="hlt">risk</span> factors from the prenatal period to the child's first birthday among 9- to 18-month-old children was conducted with negative binomial <span class="hlt">modeling</span>. Overall, 495 children had dental examinations at ages 9, 12, and 18 months. Mothers were interviewed during the 2nd trimester of pregnancy and when the children had dental examinations. The highest incidence of caries was found among children who were born to mothers with >or= 10 decayed teeth and who never received calcium supplements during pregnancy, and children who were not fed supplementary foods at age 3 months, had sweet-tasting foods at 5 months, started snacking at 5 months, had sugary snacks, had soft drinks, and did not have their teeth brushed daily at 9 months. Thus, prenatal care and child-rearing-practices during and after birth are important <span class="hlt">risk</span> factors for the incidence and incremental rate of ECC. PMID:19278984</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4472639','PMC'); return false;" href="http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4472639"><span id="translatedtitle">Ecological <span class="hlt">Risk</span> <span class="hlt">Model</span> of Childhood Obesity in Chinese Immigrant Children</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Zhou, Nan; Cheah, Charissa S. L.</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Chinese Americans are the largest and fastest growing Asian American subgroup, increasing about one-third during the 2000s. Despite the slender Asian stereotype, nearly one-third of 6-to-11 years old Chinese American children were found to be overweight (above the 85th percentile in BMI). Importantly, unique and severe health <span class="hlt">risks</span> are associated with being overweight/obese in Chinese. Unfortunately, Chinese immigrant children have been neglected in the literature on obesity. This review aimed to identify factors at various levels of the ecological <span class="hlt">model</span> that may place Chinese immigrant children at <span class="hlt">risk</span> for being overweight/obese in the U.S. Key contextual factors at the micro-, meso-, exo-, macro- and chronosystem were identified guided by Bronfenbrenner’s ecological systems theory. The corresponding mediating and moderating processes among the factors were also reviewed and proposed. By presenting a conceptual framework and relevant research, this review can provide a basic framework for directing future interdisciplinary research in seeking solutions to childhood obesity within this understudied population. PMID:25728887</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25728887','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25728887"><span id="translatedtitle">Ecological <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">model</span> of childhood obesity in Chinese immigrant children.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Zhou, Nan; Cheah, Charissa S L</p> <p>2015-07-01</p> <p>Chinese Americans are the largest and fastest growing Asian American subgroup, increasing about one-third during the 2000s. Despite the slender Asian stereotype, nearly one-third of 6-to-11 year old Chinese American children were found to be overweight (above the 85th percentile in BMI). Importantly, unique and severe health <span class="hlt">risks</span> are associated with being overweight/obese in Chinese. Unfortunately, Chinese immigrant children have been neglected in the literature on obesity. This review aimed to identify factors at various levels of the ecological <span class="hlt">model</span> that may place Chinese immigrant children at <span class="hlt">risk</span> for being overweight/obese in the U.S. Key contextual factors at the micro-, meso-, exo-, macro- and chronosystem were identified guided by Bronfenbrenner's ecological systems theory. The corresponding mediating and moderating processes among the factors were also reviewed and proposed. By presenting a conceptual framework and relevant research, this review can provide a basic framework for directing future interdisciplinary research in seeking solutions to childhood obesity within this understudied population. PMID:25728887</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4428390','PMC'); return false;" href="http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4428390"><span id="translatedtitle">Recent Enhancements to the Genetic <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Prediction <span class="hlt">Model</span> BRCAPRO</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Mazzola, Emanuele; Blackford, Amanda; Parmigiani, Giovanni; Biswas, Swati</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>BRCAPRO is a widely used <span class="hlt">model</span> for genetic <span class="hlt">risk</span> prediction of breast cancer. It is a function within the R package BayesMendel and is used to calculate the probabilities of being a carrier of a deleterious mutation in one or both of the BRCA genes, as well as the probability of being affected with breast and ovarian cancer within a defined time window. Both predictions are based on information contained in the counselee’s family history of cancer. During the last decade, BRCAPRO has undergone several rounds of successive refinements: the current version is part of release 2.1 of BayesMendel. In this review, we showcase some of the most notable features of the software resulting from these recent changes. We provide examples highlighting each feature, using artificial pedigrees motivated by complex clinical examples. We illustrate how BRCAPRO is a comprehensive software for genetic <span class="hlt">risk</span> prediction with many useful features that allow users the flexibility to incorporate varying amounts of available information. PMID:25983549</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009AGUFM.T54B..05M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009AGUFM.T54B..05M"><span id="translatedtitle">Four Years of <span class="hlt">Absolute</span> Gravity in the Taiwan Orogen (AGTO)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Mouyen, M.; Masson, F.; Hwang, C.; Cheng, C.; Le Moigne, N.; Lee, C.; Kao, R.; Hsieh, N.</p> <p>2009-12-01</p> <p>AGTO is a scientific project between Taiwanese and French institutes which aim is to improve tectonic knowledge of Taiwan primarily using <span class="hlt">absolute</span> gravity measurements and permanent GPS stations. Both tools are indeed useful to study vertical movements and mass transfers involved in mountain building, a major process in Taiwan located at the convergent margin between Philippine Sea plate and Eurasian plate. This convergence results in two subductions north and south of Taiwan (Ryukyu and Manilla trenches, respectively), while the center is experiencing collision. These processes make Taiwan very active tectonically, as illustrated by numerous large earthquakes and rapid uplift of the Central Range. High slopes of Taiwan mountains and heavy rains brought by typhoons together lead to high landslides and mudflows <span class="hlt">risks</span>. Practically, <span class="hlt">absolute</span> gravity measurements have been yearly repeated since 2006 along a transect across south Taiwan, from Penghu to Lutao island, using FG5 <span class="hlt">absolute</span> gravimeters. This transect contains ten sites for <span class="hlt">absolute</span> measurements and has been densified in 2008 by incorporating 45 sites for relative gravity measurements with CG5 gravimeters. At the end of 2009, the relative gravity network will be densified again in its eastern part, i.e. in the Longitudinal Valley and the Central Range. A fourth set of <span class="hlt">absolute</span> gravity measurements will also be performed at the same period. Most of the <span class="hlt">absolute</span> sites have been measured with a good accuracy, about 1 or 2 μGal. Only the site located in Tainan University has higher standard deviation, due to the city noise. The stronger change in gravity reaches -7 μGal a -1 west of the Longitudinal Valley and might be explained by tectonic movement along a fault. A large decrease of -5 μGal a-1 is also measured in Tainan city and could be correlated with uplift of this region, also denoted by InSAR, leveling and GPS. Changes occurring in the Central Range are more difficult to interpret due to the small</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2007IJMPC..18.1619P&link_type=ABSTRACT','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2007IJMPC..18.1619P&link_type=ABSTRACT"><span id="translatedtitle">Simple <span class="hlt">Model</span> of Mating Preference and Extinction <span class="hlt">Risk</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>PȨKALSKI, Andrzej</p> <p></p> <p>We present a simple <span class="hlt">model</span> of a population of individuals characterized by their genetic structure in the form of a double string of bits and the phenotype following from it. The population is living in an unchanging habitat preferring a certain type of phenotype (optimum). Individuals are unisex, however a pair is necessary for breeding. An individual rejects a mate if the latter's phenotype contains too many bad, i.e. different from the optimum, genes in the same places as the individual's. We show that such strategy, analogous to disassortative mating based on the major histocompatibility complex, avoiding inbreeding and incest, could be beneficial for the population and could reduce considerably the extinction <span class="hlt">risk</span>, especially in small populations.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2009JCoAM.229..145F&link_type=ABSTRACT','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2009JCoAM.229..145F&link_type=ABSTRACT"><span id="translatedtitle">Optimal dividends in the Brownian motion <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">model</span> with interest</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Fang, Ying; Wu, Rong</p> <p>2009-07-01</p> <p>In this paper, we consider a Brownian motion <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">model</span>, and in addition, the surplus earns investment income at a constant force of interest. The objective is to find a dividend policy so as to maximize the expected discounted value of dividend payments. It is well known that optimality is achieved by using a barrier strategy for unrestricted dividend rate. However, ultimate ruin of the company is certain if a barrier strategy is applied. In many circumstances this is not desirable. This consideration leads us to impose a restriction on the dividend stream. We assume that dividends are paid to the shareholders according to admissible strategies whose dividend rate is bounded by a constant. Under this additional constraint, we show that the optimal dividend strategy is formed by a threshold strategy.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=310503&keyword=pesticide&actType=&TIMSType=+&TIMSSubTypeID=&DEID=&epaNumber=&ntisID=&archiveStatus=Both&ombCat=Any&dateBeginCreated=&dateEndCreated=&dateBeginPublishedPresented=&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&dateBeginCompleted=&dateEndCompleted=&personID=&role=Any&journalID=&publisherID=&sortBy=revisionDate&count=50&CFID=65288885&CFTOKEN=19791637','EPA-EIMS'); return false;" href="http://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=310503&keyword=pesticide&actType=&TIMSType=+&TIMSSubTypeID=&DEID=&epaNumber=&ntisID=&archiveStatus=Both&ombCat=Any&dateBeginCreated=&dateEndCreated=&dateBeginPublishedPresented=&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&dateBeginCompleted=&dateEndCompleted=&personID=&role=Any&journalID=&publisherID=&sortBy=revisionDate&count=50&CFID=65288885&CFTOKEN=19791637"><span id="translatedtitle">The Terrestrial Investigation <span class="hlt">Model</span>: A probabilistic <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment <span class="hlt">model</span> for birds exposed to pesticides</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://oaspub.epa.gov/eims/query.page">EPA Science Inventory</a></p> <p></p> <p></p> <p>One of the major recommendations of the National Academy of Science to the USEPA, NMFS and USFWS was to utilize probabilistic methods when assessing the <span class="hlt">risks</span> of pesticides to federally listed endangered and threatened species. The Terrestrial Investigation <span class="hlt">Model</span> (TIM, version 3....</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li class="active"><span>22</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_24");'>24</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_22 --> <div id="page_23" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li class="active"><span>23</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_24");'>24</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>25</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="441"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140001056','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140001056"><span id="translatedtitle">Evaluation of the <span class="hlt">Absolute</span> Regional Temperature Potential</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Shindell, D. T.</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>The <span class="hlt">Absolute</span> Regional Temperature Potential (ARTP) is one of the few climate metrics that provides estimates of impacts at a sub-global scale. The ARTP presented here gives the time-dependent temperature response in four latitude bands (90-28degS, 28degS-28degN, 28-60degN and 60-90degN) as a function of emissions based on the forcing in those bands caused by the emissions. It is based on a large set of simulations performed with a single atmosphere-ocean climate <span class="hlt">model</span> to derive regional forcing/response relationships. Here I evaluate the robustness of those relationships using the forcing/response portion of the ARTP to estimate regional temperature responses to the historic aerosol forcing in three independent climate <span class="hlt">models</span>. These ARTP results are in good accord with the actual responses in those <span class="hlt">models</span>. Nearly all ARTP estimates fall within +/-20%of the actual responses, though there are some exceptions for 90-28degS and the Arctic, and in the latter the ARTP may vary with forcing agent. However, for the tropics and the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes in particular, the +/-20% range appears to be roughly consistent with the 95% confidence interval. Land areas within these two bands respond 39-45% and 9-39% more than the latitude band as a whole. The ARTP, presented here in a slightly revised form, thus appears to provide a relatively robust estimate for the responses of large-scale latitude bands and land areas within those bands to inhomogeneous radiative forcing and thus potentially to emissions as well. Hence this metric could allow rapid evaluation of the effects of emissions policies at a finer scale than global metrics without requiring use of a full climate <span class="hlt">model</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AIPC.1691e0003L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AIPC.1691e0003L"><span id="translatedtitle">Internal <span class="hlt">modelling</span> under <span class="hlt">Risk</span>-Based Capital (RBC) framework</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Ling, Ang Siew; Hin, Pooi Ah</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>Very often the methods for the internal <span class="hlt">modelling</span> under the <span class="hlt">Risk</span>-Based Capital framework make use of the data which are in the form of run-off triangle. The present research will instead extract from a group of n customers, the historical data for the sum insured si of the i-th customer together with the amount paid yij and the amount aij reported but not yet paid in the j-th development year for j = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. We <span class="hlt">model</span> the future value (yij+1, aij+1) to be dependent on the present year value (yij, aij) and the sum insured si via a conditional distribution which is derived from a multivariate power-normal mixture distribution. For a group of given customers with different original purchase dates, the distribution of the aggregate claims liabilities may be obtained from the proposed <span class="hlt">model</span>. The prediction interval based on the distribution for the aggregate claim liabilities is found to have good ability of covering the observed aggregate claim liabilities.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2011AGUFM.G31A0939M&link_type=ABSTRACT','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2011AGUFM.G31A0939M&link_type=ABSTRACT"><span id="translatedtitle">GNSS <span class="hlt">Absolute</span> Antenna Calibration at the National Geodetic Survey</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Mader, G. L.; Bilich, A. L.; Geoghegan, C.</p> <p>2011-12-01</p> <p>Geodetic GNSS applications routinely demand millimeter precision and extremely high levels of accuracy. To achieve these accuracies, measurement and instrument biases at the centimeter to millimeter level must be understood. One of these biases is the antenna phase center, the apparent point of signal reception for a GNSS antenna. It has been well established that phase center patterns differ between antenna <span class="hlt">models</span> and manufacturers; additional research suggests that the addition of a radome or the choice of antenna mount can significantly alter those a priori phase center patterns. For the more demanding GNSS positioning applications and especially in cases of mixed-antenna networks, it is all the more important to know antenna phase center variations as a function of both elevation and azimuth in the antenna reference frame and incorporate these <span class="hlt">models</span> into analysis software. To help meet the needs of the high-precision GNSS community, the National Geodetic Survey (NGS) now operates an <span class="hlt">absolute</span> antenna calibration facility. Located in Corbin, Virginia, this facility uses field measurements and actual GNSS satellite signals to quantitatively determine the carrier phase advance/delay introduced by the antenna element. The NGS facility was built to serve traditional NGS constituents such as the surveying and geodesy communities, however calibration services are open and available to all GNSS users as the calibration schedule permits. All phase center patterns computed by this facility will be publicly available and disseminated in both the ANTEX and NGS formats. We describe the NGS calibration facility, and discuss the observation <span class="hlt">models</span> and strategy currently used to generate NGS <span class="hlt">absolute</span> calibrations. We demonstrate that NGS <span class="hlt">absolute</span> phase center variation (PCV) patterns are consistent with published values determined by other <span class="hlt">absolute</span> antenna calibration facilities, and compare <span class="hlt">absolute</span> calibrations to the traditional NGS relative calibrations.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016A%26A...586A.155A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016A%26A...586A.155A"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Absolute</span> magnitudes and phase coefficients of trans-Neptunian objects</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Alvarez-Candal, A.; Pinilla-Alonso, N.; Ortiz, J. L.; Duffard, R.; Morales, N.; Santos-Sanz, P.; Thirouin, A.; Silva, J. S.</p> <p>2016-02-01</p> <p>Context. Accurate measurements of diameters of trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) are extremely difficult to obtain. Thermal <span class="hlt">modeling</span> can provide good results, but accurate <span class="hlt">absolute</span> magnitudes are needed to constrain the thermal <span class="hlt">models</span> and derive diameters and geometric albedos. The <span class="hlt">absolute</span> magnitude, HV, is defined as the magnitude of the object reduced to unit helio- and geocentric distances and a zero solar phase angle and is determined using phase curves. Phase coefficients can also be obtained from phase curves. These are related to surface properties, but only few are known. Aims: Our objective is to measure accurate V-band <span class="hlt">absolute</span> magnitudes and phase coefficients for a sample of TNOs, many of which have been observed and <span class="hlt">modeled</span> within the program "TNOs are cool", which is one of the Herschel Space Observatory key projects. Methods: We observed 56 objects using the V and R filters. These data, along with those available in the literature, were used to obtain phase curves and measure V-band <span class="hlt">absolute</span> magnitudes and phase coefficients by assuming a linear trend of the phase curves and considering a magnitude variability that is due to the rotational light-curve. Results: We obtained 237 new magnitudes for the 56 objects, six of which were without previously reported measurements. Including the data from the literature, we report a total of 110 <span class="hlt">absolute</span> magnitudes with their respective phase coefficients. The average value of HV is 6.39, bracketed by a minimum of 14.60 and a maximum of -1.12. For the phase coefficients we report a median value of 0.10 mag per degree and a very large dispersion, ranging from -0.88 up to 1.35 mag per degree.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23690142','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23690142"><span id="translatedtitle">Simplifying clinical use of the genetic <span class="hlt">risk</span> prediction <span class="hlt">model</span> BRCAPRO.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Biswas, Swati; Atienza, Philamer; Chipman, Jonathan; Hughes, Kevin; Barrera, Angelica M Gutierrez; Amos, Christopher I; Arun, Banu; Parmigiani, Giovanni</p> <p>2013-06-01</p> <p>Health care providers need simple tools to identify patients at genetic <span class="hlt">risk</span> of breast and ovarian cancers. Genetic <span class="hlt">risk</span> prediction <span class="hlt">models</span> such as BRCAPRO could fill this gap if incorporated into Electronic Medical Records or other Health Information Technology solutions. However, BRCAPRO requires potentially extensive information on the counselee and her family history. Thus, it may be useful to provide simplified version(s) of BRCAPRO for use in settings that do not require exhaustive genetic counseling. We explore four simplified versions of BRCAPRO, each using less complete information than the original <span class="hlt">model</span>. BRCAPROLYTE uses information on affected relatives only up to second degree. It is in clinical use but has not been evaluated. BRCAPROLYTE-Plus extends BRCAPROLYTE by imputing the ages of unaffected relatives. BRCAPROLYTE-Simple reduces the data collection burden associated with BRCAPROLYTE and BRCAPROLYTE-Plus by not collecting the family structure. BRCAPRO-1Degree only uses first-degree affected relatives. We use data on 2,713 individuals from seven sites of the Cancer Genetics Network and MD Anderson Cancer Center to compare these simplified tools with the Family History Assessment Tool (FHAT) and BRCAPRO, with the latter serving as the benchmark. BRCAPROLYTE retains high discrimination; however, because it ignores information on unaffected relatives, it overestimates carrier probabilities. BRCAPROLYTE-Plus and BRCAPROLYTE-Simple provide better calibration than BRCAPROLYTE, so they have higher specificity for similar values of sensitivity. BRCAPROLYTE-Plus performs slightly better than BRCAPROLYTE-Simple. The Areas Under the ROC curve are 0.783 (BRCAPRO), 0.763 (BRCAPROLYTE), 0.772 (BRCAPROLYTE-Plus), 0.773 (BRCAPROLYTE-Simple), 0.728 (BRCAPRO-1Degree), and 0.745 (FHAT). The simpler versions, especially BRCAPROLYTE-Plus and BRCAPROLYTE-Simple, lead to only modest loss in overall discrimination compared to BRCAPRO in this dataset. Thus, we conclude that</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://eric.ed.gov/?q=organic+AND+carbon&pg=5&id=EJ288694','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://eric.ed.gov/?q=organic+AND+carbon&pg=5&id=EJ288694"><span id="translatedtitle">A New Gimmick for Assigning <span class="hlt">Absolute</span> Configuration.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Ayorinde, F. O.</p> <p>1983-01-01</p> <p>A five-step procedure is provided to help students in making the assignment <span class="hlt">absolute</span> configuration less bothersome. Examples for both single (2-butanol) and multi-chiral carbon (3-chloro-2-butanol) molecules are included. (JN)</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2011AGUFM.V22B..08R&link_type=ABSTRACT','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2011AGUFM.V22B..08R&link_type=ABSTRACT"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Risk</span> evaluation of uranium mining: A geochemical inverse <span class="hlt">modelling</span> approach</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Rillard, J.; Zuddas, P.; Scislewski, A.</p> <p>2011-12-01</p> <p>It is well known that uranium extraction operations can increase <span class="hlt">risks</span> linked to radiation exposure. The toxicity of uranium and associated heavy metals is the main environmental concern regarding exploitation and processing of U-ore. In areas where U mining is planned, a careful assessment of toxic and radioactive element concentrations is recommended before the start of mining activities. A background evaluation of harmful elements is important in order to prevent and/or quantify future water contamination resulting from possible migration of toxic metals coming from ore and waste water interaction. Controlled leaching experiments were carried out to investigate processes of ore and waste (leached ore) degradation, using samples from the uranium exploitation site located in Caetité-Bahia, Brazil. In experiments in which the reaction of waste with water was tested, we found that the water had low pH and high levels of sulphates and aluminium. On the other hand, in experiments in which ore was tested, the water had a chemical composition comparable to natural water found in the region of Caetité. On the basis of our experiments, we suggest that waste resulting from sulphuric acid treatment can induce acidification and salinization of surface and ground water. For this reason proper storage of waste is imperative. As a tool to evaluate the <span class="hlt">risks</span>, a geochemical inverse <span class="hlt">modelling</span> approach was developed to estimate the water-mineral interaction involving the presence of toxic elements. We used a method earlier described by Scislewski and Zuddas 2010 (Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 74, 6996-7007) in which the reactive surface area of mineral dissolution can be estimated. We found that the reactive surface area of rock parent minerals is not constant during time but varies according to several orders of magnitude in only two months of interaction. We propose that parent mineral heterogeneity and particularly, neogenic phase formation may explain the observed variation of the</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/7800862','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/7800862"><span id="translatedtitle">Designing <span class="hlt">risk</span> communications: completing and correcting mental <span class="hlt">models</span> of hazardous processes, Part I.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Atman, C J; Bostrom, A; Fischhoff, B; Morgan, M G</p> <p>1994-10-01</p> <p>Many <span class="hlt">risk</span> communications are intended to help the lay public make complex decisions about <span class="hlt">risk</span>. To guide <span class="hlt">risk</span> communicators with this objective, a mental <span class="hlt">models</span> approach to the design and characterization of <span class="hlt">risk</span> communications is proposed. Building on text comprehension and mental <span class="hlt">models</span> research, this approach offers an integrated set of methods to help the <span class="hlt">risk</span> communication designer choose and analyze <span class="hlt">risk</span> communication content, structure, and organization. An applied example shows that two radon brochures designed with this approach present roughly the same expert facts as a radon brochure widely distributed by the U.S. EPA but meet higher standards on other content, structure, and organization criteria. PMID:7800862</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4738429','PMC'); return false;" href="http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4738429"><span id="translatedtitle">Long‐Term Post‐CABG Survival: Performance of Clinical <span class="hlt">Risk</span> <span class="hlt">Models</span> Versus Actuarial Predictions</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Carr, Brendan M.; Romeiser, Jamie; Ruan, Joyce; Gupta, Sandeep; Seifert, Frank C.; Zhu, Wei</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Abstract Background/aim Clinical <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">models</span> are commonly used to predict short‐term coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) mortality but are less commonly used to predict long‐term mortality. The added value of long‐term mortality clinical <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">models</span> over traditional actuarial <span class="hlt">models</span> has not been evaluated. To address this, the predictive performance of a long‐term clinical <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">model</span> was compared with that of an actuarial <span class="hlt">model</span> to identify the clinical variable(s) most responsible for any differences observed. Methods Long‐term mortality for 1028 CABG patients was estimated using the Hannan New York State clinical <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">model</span> and an actuarial <span class="hlt">model</span> (based on age, gender, and race/ethnicity). Vital status was assessed using the Social Security Death Index. Observed/expected (O/E) ratios were calculated, and the <span class="hlt">models</span>' predictive performances were compared using a nested c‐index approach. Linear regression analyses identified the subgroup of <span class="hlt">risk</span> factors driving the differences observed. Results Mortality rates were 3%, 9%, and 17% at one‐, three‐, and five years, respectively (median follow‐up: five years). The clinical <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">model</span> provided more accurate predictions. Greater divergence between <span class="hlt">model</span> estimates occurred with increasing long‐term mortality <span class="hlt">risk</span>, with baseline renal dysfunction identified as a particularly important driver of these differences. Conclusions Long‐term mortality clinical <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">models</span> provide enhanced predictive power compared to actuarial <span class="hlt">models</span>. Using the Hannan <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">model</span>, a patient's long‐term mortality <span class="hlt">risk</span> can be accurately assessed and subgroups of higher‐<span class="hlt">risk</span> patients can be identified for enhanced follow‐up care. More research appears warranted to refine long‐term CABG clinical <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">models</span>. doi: 10.1111/jocs.12665 (J Card Surg 2016;31:23–30) PMID:26543019</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ars.usda.gov/research/publications/Publications.htm?seq_no_115=207842','TEKTRAN'); return false;" href="http://www.ars.usda.gov/research/publications/Publications.htm?seq_no_115=207842"><span id="translatedtitle">Assessing the <span class="hlt">risk</span> of the evolution of resistance to pesticides using spatially complex simulation <span class="hlt">models</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ars.usda.gov/services/TekTran.htm">Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)</a></p> <p></p> <p></p> <p><span class="hlt">Models</span> on the evolution of resistance to pesticides and transgenic crops are reviewed with a focus on results generated by stochastic simulation <span class="hlt">models</span>. Methods to better use <span class="hlt">models</span> to assess the <span class="hlt">risk</span> of resistance are discussed....</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26370203','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26370203"><span id="translatedtitle">A Social Ecological <span class="hlt">Model</span> of Syndemic <span class="hlt">Risk</span> affecting Women with and At-<span class="hlt">Risk</span> for HIV in Impoverished Urban Communities.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Batchelder, A W; Gonzalez, J S; Palma, A; Schoenbaum, E; Lounsbury, D W</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>Syndemic <span class="hlt">risk</span> is an ecological construct, defined by co-occurring interdependent socio-environmental, interpersonal and intrapersonal determinants. We posited syndemic <span class="hlt">risk</span> to be a function of violence, substance use, perceived financial hardship, emotional distress and self-worth among women with and at-<span class="hlt">risk</span> for HIV in an impoverished urban community. In order to better understand these interrelationships, we developed and validated a system dynamics (SD) <span class="hlt">model</span> based upon peer-reviewed literature; secondary data analyses of a cohort dataset including women living with and at-<span class="hlt">risk</span> of HIV in Bronx, NY (N = 620); and input from a Bronx-based community advisory board. Simulated <span class="hlt">model</span> output revealed divergent levels and patterns of syndemic <span class="hlt">risk</span> over time across different sample profiles. Outputs generated new insights about how to effectively explore multicomponent multi-level programs in order to strategically develop more effective services for this population. Specifically, the <span class="hlt">model</span> indicated that effective multi-level interventions might bolster women's resilience by increasing self-worth, which may result in decreased perceived financial hardship and <span class="hlt">risk</span> of violence. Overall, our stakeholder-informed <span class="hlt">model</span> depicts how self-worth may be a major driver of vulnerability and a meaningful addition to syndemic theory affecting this population. PMID:26370203</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20565146','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20565146"><span id="translatedtitle">Longitudinal validation of the acquired preparedness <span class="hlt">model</span> of drinking <span class="hlt">risk</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Settles, Regan Fried; Cyders, Melissa; Smith, Gregory T</p> <p>2010-06-01</p> <p>This paper reports on the first longitudinal test of the Acquired Preparedness (AP) <span class="hlt">model</span> of alcoholism <span class="hlt">risk</span>, which holds that individual differences in key personality traits influence drinking behavior by influencing alcohol-related learning (Smith and Anderson, 2001). We studied 418 individuals making the transition to the independence of college across 3 longitudinal waves. Each of 2 longitudinal <span class="hlt">models</span> predicting typical drinking quantity provided support for the AP process. In the first, drinking quantity at the end of the first year of college was predicted by positive urgency (the tendency to act rashly when experiencing extremely positive affect) at the start of college, and that predictive relationship appeared to have been mediated by expectancies that alcohol provides positive, arousing effects. In the second, drinking quantity was predicted by negative urgency (the tendency to act rashly when experiencing extremely negative affect) at the start of college, and that relationship appeared to have been mediated by the motive to drink alcohol to cope with subjective distress. PMID:20565146</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4543083','PMC'); return false;" href="http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4543083"><span id="translatedtitle">Identification of the high <span class="hlt">risk</span> emergency surgical patient: Which <span class="hlt">risk</span> prediction <span class="hlt">model</span> should be used?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Stonelake, Stephen; Thomson, Peter; Suggett, Nigel</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Introduction National guidance states that all patients having emergency surgery should have a mortality <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment calculated on admission so that the ‘high risk’ patient can receive the appropriate seniority and level of care. We aimed to assess if peri-operative <span class="hlt">risk</span> scoring tools could accurately calculate mortality and morbidity <span class="hlt">risk</span>. Methods Mortality <span class="hlt">risk</span> scores for 86 consecutive emergency laparotomies, were calculated using pre-operative (ASA, Lee index) and post-operative (POSSUM, P-POSSUM and CR-POSSUM) <span class="hlt">risk</span> calculation tools. Morbidity <span class="hlt">risk</span> scores were calculated using the POSSUM predicted morbidity and compared against actual morbidity according to the Clavien–Dindo classification. Results The actual mortality was 10.5%. The average predicted <span class="hlt">risk</span> scores for all laparotomies were: ASA 26.5%, Lee Index 2.5%, POSSUM 29.5%, P-POSSUM 18.5%, CR-POSSUM 10.5%. Complications occurred following 67 laparotomies (78%). The majority (51%) of complications were classified as Clavien–Dindo grade 2–3 (non-life-threatening). Patients having a POSSUM morbidity <span class="hlt">risk</span> of greater than 50% developed significantly more life-threatening complications (CD 4–5) compared with those who predicted less than or equal to 50% morbidity <span class="hlt">risk</span> (P = 0.01). Discussion Pre-operative <span class="hlt">risk</span> stratification remains a challenge because the Lee Index under-predicts and ASA over-predicts mortality <span class="hlt">risk</span>. Post-operative <span class="hlt">risk</span> scoring using the CR-POSSUM is more accurate and we suggest can be used to identify patients who require intensive care post-operatively. Conclusions In the absence of accurate <span class="hlt">risk</span> scoring tools that can be used on admission to hospital it is not possible to reliably audit the achievement of national standards of care for the ‘high-risk’ patient. PMID:26468369</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010JPhCS.238a2039T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010JPhCS.238a2039T"><span id="translatedtitle">An <span class="hlt">absolute</span> scale for measuring the utility of money</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Thomas, P. J.</p> <p>2010-07-01</p> <p>Measurement of the utility of money is essential in the insurance industry, for prioritising public spending schemes and for the evaluation of decisions on protection systems in high-hazard industries. Up to this time, however, there has been no universally agreed measure for the utility of money, with many utility functions being in common use. In this paper, we shall derive a single family of utility functions, which have <span class="hlt">risk</span>-aversion as the only free parameter. The fact that they return a utility of zero at their low, reference datum, either the utility of no money or of one unit of money, irrespective of the value of <span class="hlt">risk</span>-aversion used, qualifies them to be regarded as <span class="hlt">absolute</span> scales for the utility of money. Evidence of validation for the concept will be offered based on inferential measurements of <span class="hlt">risk</span>-aversion, using diverse measurement data.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1999PhDT........73K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1999PhDT........73K"><span id="translatedtitle">Assignment of <span class="hlt">absolute</span> stereochemistry by computation of optical rotation angles</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kondru, Rama Krishna</p> <p></p> <p>We have developed simple wire and molecular orbital <span class="hlt">models</span> to qualitatively and quantitatively understand optical rotation angles of molecules. We reported the first ab initio theoretical approach to determine the <span class="hlt">absolute</span> stereochemistry of a complex natural product by calculating molar rotation angles, [M]D. We applied this method for an unambiguous assignment of the <span class="hlt">absolute</span> stereochemistry of the hennoxazole A. A protocol analogous to population analysis was devised to analyze atomic contributions to the rotation angles for oxiranes, orthoesters, and other organic compounds. The molar rotations for an indoline, an indonone, menthol and menthone were calculated using ab inito methods and compared with experimental values. We reported the first prediction of the <span class="hlt">absolute</span> configuration of a natural product, i.e. an a priori assignment of the relative and <span class="hlt">absolute</span> stereochemistry of pitiamide A. Furthermore, we described a strategy that may help to establish structure-function relations for rotation angles by visualizing the electric and magnetic-field perturbations to a molecule's molecular orbitals.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009JCoAM.223.1066H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009JCoAM.223.1066H"><span id="translatedtitle">Measuring the coupled <span class="hlt">risks</span>: A copula-based CVaR <span class="hlt">model</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>He, Xubiao; Gong, Pu</p> <p>2009-01-01</p> <p>Integrated <span class="hlt">risk</span> management for financial institutions requires an approach for aggregating <span class="hlt">risk</span> types (such as market and credit) whose distributional shapes vary considerably. The financial institutions often ignore <span class="hlt">risks</span>' coupling influence so as to underestimate the financial <span class="hlt">risks</span>. We constructed a copula-based Conditional Value-at-<span class="hlt">Risk</span> (CVaR) <span class="hlt">model</span> for market and credit <span class="hlt">risks</span>. This technique allows us to incorporate realistic marginal distributions that capture essential empirical features of these <span class="hlt">risks</span>, such as skewness and fat-tails while allowing for a rich dependence structure. Finally, the numerical simulation method is used to implement the <span class="hlt">model</span>. Our results indicate that the coupled <span class="hlt">risks</span> for the listed company's stock maybe are undervalued if credit <span class="hlt">risk</span> is ignored, especially for the listed company with bad credit quality.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2015PhDT.......131M&link_type=ABSTRACT','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2015PhDT.......131M&link_type=ABSTRACT"><span id="translatedtitle">Climate and weather <span class="hlt">risk</span> in natural resource <span class="hlt">models</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Merrill, Nathaniel Henry</p> <p></p> <p>This work, consisting of three manuscripts, addresses natural resource management under <span class="hlt">risk</span> due to variation in climate and weather. In three distinct but theoretically related applications, I quantify the role of natural resources in stabilizing economic outcomes. In Manuscript 1, we address policy designed to effect the <span class="hlt">risk</span> of cyanobacteria blooms in a drinking water reservoir through watershed wide policy. Combining a hydrologic and economic <span class="hlt">model</span> for a watershed in Rhode Island, we solve for the efficient allocation of best management practices (BMPs) on livestock pastures to meet a monthly <span class="hlt">risk</span>-based as well as mean-based water quality objective. In order to solve for the efficient allocations of nutrient control effort, we optimize a probabilistically constrained integer-programming problem representing the choices made on each farm and the resultant conditions that support cyanobacteria blooms. In doing so, we employ a genetic algorithm (GA). We hypothesize that management based on controlling the upper tail of the probability distribution of phosphorus loading implies different efficient management actions as compared to controlling mean loading. We find a shift to more intense effort on fewer acres when a probabilistic objective is specified with cost savings of meeting <span class="hlt">risk</span> levels of up to 25% over mean loading based policies. Additionally, we illustrate the relative cost effectiveness of various policies designed to meet this <span class="hlt">risk</span>-based objective. Rainfall and the subsequent overland runoff is the source of transportation of nutrients to a receiving water body, with larger amounts of phosphorus moving in more intense rainfall events. We highlight the importance of this transportation mechanism by comparing policies under climate change scenarios, where the intensity of rainfall is projected to increase and the time series process of rainfall to change. In Manuscript 2, we introduce a new economic groundwater <span class="hlt">model</span> that incorporates the gradual shift</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140003875','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140003875"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Modeling</span> Commercial Turbofan Engine Icing <span class="hlt">Risk</span> With Ice Crystal Ingestion</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Jorgenson, Philip C. E.; Veres, Joseph P.</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>The occurrence of ice accretion within commercial high bypass aircraft turbine engines has been reported under certain atmospheric conditions. Engine anomalies have taken place at high altitudes that have been attributed to ice crystal ingestion, partially melting, and ice accretion on the compression system components. The result was degraded engine performance, and one or more of the following: loss of thrust control (roll back), compressor surge or stall, and flameout of the combustor. As ice crystals are ingested into the fan and low pressure compression system, the increase in air temperature causes a portion of the ice crystals to melt. It is hypothesized that this allows the ice-water mixture to cover the metal surfaces of the compressor stationary components which leads to ice accretion through evaporative cooling. Ice accretion causes a blockage which subsequently results in the deterioration in performance of the compressor and engine. The focus of this research is to apply an engine icing computational tool to simulate the flow through a turbofan engine and assess the <span class="hlt">risk</span> of ice accretion. The tool is comprised of an engine system thermodynamic cycle code, a compressor flow analysis code, and an ice particle melt code that has the capability of determining the rate of sublimation, melting, and evaporation through the compressor flow path, without <span class="hlt">modeling</span> the actual ice accretion. A commercial turbofan engine which has previously experienced icing events during operation in a high altitude ice crystal environment has been tested in the Propulsion Systems Laboratory (PSL) altitude test facility at NASA Glenn Research Center. The PSL has the capability to produce a continuous ice cloud which are ingested by the engine during operation over a range of altitude conditions. The PSL test results confirmed that there was ice accretion in the engine due to ice crystal ingestion, at the same simulated altitude operating conditions as experienced previously in</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20160006019','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20160006019"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Risk</span>-Based Causal <span class="hlt">Modeling</span> of Airborne Loss of Separation</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Geuther, Steven C.; Shih, Ann T.</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Maintaining safe separation between aircraft remains one of the key aviation challenges as the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) emerges. The goals of the NextGen are to increase capacity and reduce flight delays to meet the aviation demand growth through the 2025 time frame while maintaining safety and efficiency. The envisioned NextGen is expected to enable high air traffic density, diverse fleet operations in the airspace, and a decrease in separation distance. All of these factors contribute to the potential for Loss of Separation (LOS) between aircraft. LOS is a precursor to a potential mid-air collision (MAC). The NASA Airspace Operations and Safety Program (AOSP) is committed to developing aircraft separation assurance concepts and technologies to mitigate LOS instances, therefore, preventing MAC. This paper focuses on the analysis of causal and contributing factors of LOS accidents and incidents leading to MAC occurrences. Mid-air collisions among large commercial aircraft are rare in the past decade, therefore, the LOS instances in this study are for general aviation using visual flight rules in the years 2000-2010. The study includes the investigation of causal paths leading to LOS, and the development of the Airborne Loss of Separation Analysis <span class="hlt">Model</span> (ALOSAM) using Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN) to capture the multi-dependent relations of causal factors. The ALOSAM is currently a qualitative <span class="hlt">model</span>, although further development could lead to a quantitative <span class="hlt">model</span>. ALOSAM could then be used to perform impact analysis of concepts and technologies in the AOSP portfolio on the reduction of LOS <span class="hlt">risk</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25913322','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25913322"><span id="translatedtitle">Geographical <span class="hlt">modeling</span> of exposure <span class="hlt">risk</span> to cyanobacteria for epidemiological purposes.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Serrano, Tania; Dupas, Rémi; Upegui, Erika; Buscail, Camille; Grimaldi, Catherine; Viel, Jean François</p> <p>2015-08-01</p> <p>The cyanobacteria-derived neurotoxin β-methylamino-L-alanine (BMAA) represents a plausible environmental trigger for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), a debilitating and fatal neuromuscular disease. With the eutrophication of water bodies, cyanobacterial blooms and their toxins are becoming increasingly prevalent in France, especially in the Brittany region. Cyanobacteria are monitored at only a few recreational sites, preventing an estimation of exposure of the human population. By contrast, phosphorus, a limiting nutrient for cyanobacterial growth and thus considered a good proxy for cyanobacteria exposure, is monitored in many but not all surface water bodies. Our goal was to develop a geographic exposure indicator that could be used in epidemiological research. We considered the total phosphorus (TP) concentration (mg/L) of samples collected between October 2007 and September 2012 at 179 monitoring stations distributed throughout the Brittany region. Using readily available spatial data, we computed environmental descriptors at the watershed level with a Geographic Information System. Then, these descriptors were introduced into a backward stepwise linear regression <span class="hlt">model</span> to predict the median TP concentration in unmonitored surface water bodies. TP concentrations in surface water follow an increasing gradient from West to East and inland to coast. The empirical concentration <span class="hlt">model</span> included five predictor variables with a fair coefficient of determination (R(2) = 0.51). The specific total runoff and the watershed slope correlated negatively with the TP concentrations (p = 0.01 and p< 10(-9), respectively), whereas positive associations were found for the proportion of built-up area, the upstream presence of sewage treatment plants, and the algae volume as indicated by the Landsat red/green reflectance ratio (p < 0.01, p < 10(-6) and p < 0.01, respectively). Complementing the monitoring networks, this geographical <span class="hlt">modeling</span> can help estimate TP concentrations</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li class="active"><span>23</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_24");'>24</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>25</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_23 --> <div id="page_24" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li class="active"><span>24</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>25</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="461"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27303124','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27303124"><span id="translatedtitle">Developing <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Prediction <span class="hlt">Models</span> for Postoperative Pancreatic Fistula: a Systematic Review of Methodology and Reporting Quality.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Wen, Zhang; Guo, Ya; Xu, Banghao; Xiao, Kaiyin; Peng, Tao; Peng, Minhao</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>Postoperative pancreatic fistula is still a major complication after pancreatic surgery, despite improvements of surgical technique and perioperative management. We sought to systematically review and critically access the conduct and reporting of methods used to develop <span class="hlt">risk</span> prediction <span class="hlt">models</span> for predicting postoperative pancreatic fistula. We conducted a systematic search of PubMed and EMBASE databases to identify articles published before January 1, 2015, which described the development of <span class="hlt">models</span> to predict the <span class="hlt">risk</span> of postoperative pancreatic fistula. We extracted information of developing a prediction <span class="hlt">model</span> including study design, sample size and number of events, definition of postoperative pancreatic fistula, <span class="hlt">risk</span> predictor selection, missing data, <span class="hlt">model</span>-building strategies, and <span class="hlt">model</span> performance. Seven studies of developing seven <span class="hlt">risk</span> prediction <span class="hlt">models</span> were included. In three studies (42 %), the number of events per variable was less than 10. The number of candidate <span class="hlt">risk</span> predictors ranged from 9 to 32. Five studies (71 %) reported using univariate screening, which was not recommended in building a multivariate <span class="hlt">model</span>, to reduce the number of <span class="hlt">risk</span> predictors. Six <span class="hlt">risk</span> prediction <span class="hlt">models</span> (86 %) were developed by categorizing all continuous <span class="hlt">risk</span> predictors. The treatment and handling of missing data were not mentioned in all studies. We found use of inappropriate methods that could endanger the development of <span class="hlt">model</span>, including univariate pre-screening of variables, categorization of continuous <span class="hlt">risk</span> predictors, and <span class="hlt">model</span> validation. The use of inappropriate methods affects the reliability and the accuracy of the probability estimates of predicting postoperative pancreatic fistula. PMID:27303124</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006AGUFM.S12B..03W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006AGUFM.S12B..03W"><span id="translatedtitle">European Seismic <span class="hlt">Risk</span> <span class="hlt">Model</span> Covering Italy, Switzerland, Austria, Germany and Belgium</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Williams, C.; Nyst, M.; Onur, T.; Seneviratna, P.; Baca, A.; Sorby, A.</p> <p>2006-12-01</p> <p>A seismic <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">model</span> for Europe has been developed to assisted insurers and reinsurers in assessing their financial <span class="hlt">risk</span> posed by earthquakes. This <span class="hlt">model</span> was covers Italy and several countries in central Europe including Switzerland, Austria, Germany and Belgium. This presentation summarizes the methodology and data within the <span class="hlt">model</span> and includes a discussion of the key results from the hazard and <span class="hlt">risk</span> perspectives. The earthquake, <span class="hlt">risk-model</span> framework has four components. First, the stochastic event set is determined, as well as its associated event probabilities. A ground-motion <span class="hlt">model</span> including geotechnical data is added to complete the seismic hazard <span class="hlt">model</span>. To determine <span class="hlt">risk</span>, regional building vulnerability curves and a financial <span class="hlt">model</span> are incorporated. An insurer property exposure database was developed to determine the insured seismic <span class="hlt">risk</span> in these countries. Using this <span class="hlt">model</span>, examination of resulting hazard maps (200, 475, 1000 and 2500 years) and of city-level, hazard-curves gives insight to the key drivers of <span class="hlt">risk</span> across the region. Hazard de-aggregation allow for examination of key drivers of <span class="hlt">risk</span> in terms of seismic sources, event magnitude and events types. Examination of loss costs for residential and commercial (short and mid-rise) structures gives insight into the <span class="hlt">risk</span> perspective for these various lines of business. Finally, incorporation of the insurer property exposure allows for an examination of the insured <span class="hlt">risk</span> across the region and between exposure concentrations including Rome, Zurich, Munich, Vienna and Brussels.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15525868','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15525868"><span id="translatedtitle">Determining the main <span class="hlt">risk</span> factors and high-<span class="hlt">risk</span> groups of breast cancer using a predictive <span class="hlt">model</span> for breast cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment in South Korea.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Lee, Eun-Ok; Ahn, Sei-Hyun; You, Chunghee; Lee, Dong-Suk; Han, Wonshik; Choe, Kuk-Jin; Noh, Dong-Young</p> <p>2004-01-01</p> <p>This study was aimed at developing a predictive <span class="hlt">model</span> for assessing the breast cancer <span class="hlt">risk</span> of Korean women under the assumption of differences in the <span class="hlt">risk</span> factors between Westerners and Koreans. The cohort comprised 384 breast cancer patients and 2 control groups: one comprising 166 hospitalized patients and the other comprising 104 nurses and teachers. Two initial <span class="hlt">models</span> were produced by comparing cases and the 2 control groups, and the final equations were established by selecting highly significant variables of the initial <span class="hlt">models</span> to test the accuracy of the <span class="hlt">models</span> in terms of disease probability and predictability. Both the initial <span class="hlt">models</span> and the final disease-probability <span class="hlt">models</span> were confirmed to exhibit high degrees of accuracy and predictability. Major <span class="hlt">risk</span> factors determined by comparing the patients with hospitalized controls were a family history, menstrual regularity, total menstrual duration, age at first full-term pregnancy, and duration of breastfeeding. Major <span class="hlt">risk</span> factors determined by comparing patients with nurse/teacher controls were age, education level, menstrual regularity, drinking status, and smoking status. The predictive <span class="hlt">model</span> developed here shows that <span class="hlt">risk</span> factors for breast cancer differ between Korean and Western subjects in the aspect of breastfeeding behavior. However, identifying the relationship between genetic susceptibility and breast cancer will require further studies with larger samples. In a <span class="hlt">model</span> with nurse/teacher controls, drinking and higher education were found to be protective variables, whereas smoking was a <span class="hlt">risk</span> factor. Hence the predictive <span class="hlt">model</span> in this group could not be generalized to the Korean population; instead, breast cancer incidence needs to be compared among nurses and teachers in a nurse-and-teacher cohort. PMID:15525868</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24645457','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24645457"><span id="translatedtitle">Comparative application of different <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment <span class="hlt">models</span> and implications on resulting remediation options.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Capodaglio, Andrea; Callegari, Arianna; Torretta, Vincenzo</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>The issue of contaminated soils and their productive recovery is a quite controversial environmental and economic problem with important consequences for its social, public health and sustainability aspects. The sheer number and characteristics of the polluted sites are so large and varied, and the definition of priorities related to their remediation interventions so site-dependent, that proper characterization and final environmental quality goals reflect a strategic importance. One of the possible approaches to site specific approach and site priority ranking can be that of carrying out, respectively, <span class="hlt">absolute</span> and comparative analysis procedures. An important aspect to be solved is represented by the necessity to consider not only the potential <span class="hlt">risk</span> to public health, but also the best possible financial return from the investments for remediation, especially when carried out with public money. In this paper, different contaminated sites' <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment approaches are considered, compared and their applicability to support sustainable policies discussed using a case study. PMID:24645457</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19831037','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19831037"><span id="translatedtitle">Jasminum flexile flower <span class="hlt">absolute</span> from India--a detailed comparison with three other jasmine <span class="hlt">absolutes</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Braun, Norbert A; Kohlenberg, Birgit; Sim, Sherina; Meier, Manfred; Hammerschmidt, Franz-Josef</p> <p>2009-09-01</p> <p>Jasminum flexile flower <span class="hlt">absolute</span> from the south of India and the corresponding vacuum headspace (VHS) sample of the <span class="hlt">absolute</span> were analyzed using GC and GC-MS. Three other commercially available Indian jasmine <span class="hlt">absolutes</span> from the species: J. sambac, J. officinale subsp. grandiflorum, and J. auriculatum and the respective VHS samples were used for comparison purposes. One hundred and twenty-one compounds were characterized in J. flexile flower <span class="hlt">absolute</span>, with methyl linolate, benzyl salicylate, benzyl benzoate, (2E,6E)-farnesol, and benzyl acetate as the main constituents. A detailed olfactory evaluation was also performed. PMID:19831037</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2753294','PMC'); return false;" href="http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2753294"><span id="translatedtitle">Integrating Professional and Folk <span class="hlt">Models</span> of HIV <span class="hlt">Risk</span>: YMSM’s Perceptions of High-<span class="hlt">Risk</span> Sex</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Kubicek, Katrina; Carpineto, Julie; McDavitt, Bryce; Weiss, George; Iverson, Ellen F.; Au, Chi-Wai; Kerrone, Dustin; Martinez, Miguel; Kipke, Michele D.</p> <p>2009-01-01</p> <p><span class="hlt">Risks</span> associated with HIV are well documented in research literature. While a great deal has been written about high-<span class="hlt">risk</span> sex, little research has been conducted to examine how young men who have sex with men (YMSM) perceive and define high-<span class="hlt">risk</span> sexual behavior. In this study, we compare the “professional’ and “folk” <span class="hlt">models</span> of HIV-<span class="hlt">risk</span> based on YMSM’s understanding of high-<span class="hlt">risk</span> sex and where and how they gathered their understanding of HIV-<span class="hlt">risk</span> behaviors. The findings reported here emerged from the quantitative and qualitative interviews from the Healthy Young Men’s Study (HYM), a longitudinal study examining <span class="hlt">risk</span> and protective factors for substance use and sexual <span class="hlt">risk</span> among an ethnically diverse sample of YMSM. Findings are discussed in relation to framing how service providers and others can increase YMSM’s knowledge of sexual behavior and help them build solid foundations of sexual health education to protect them from STI and HIV infection. PMID:18558819</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25660080','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25660080"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Risk</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Cole, Stephen R; Hudgens, Michael G; Brookhart, M Alan; Westreich, Daniel</p> <p>2015-02-15</p> <p>The epidemiologist primarily studies transitions between states of health and disease. The purpose of the present article is to define a foundational parameter for such studies, namely <span class="hlt">risk</span>. We begin simply and build to the setting in which there is more than 1 event type (i.e., competing <span class="hlt">risks</span> or competing events), as well as more than 1 treatment or exposure level of interest. In the presence of competing events, the <span class="hlt">risks</span> are a set of counterfactual cumulative incidence functions for each treatment. These <span class="hlt">risks</span> can be depicted visually and summarized numerically. We use an example from the study of human immunodeficiency virus to illustrate concepts. PMID:25660080</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012EGUGA..14.7593P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012EGUGA..14.7593P"><span id="translatedtitle">Validation of GOCE by <span class="hlt">absolute</span> and relative gravimetry</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Pettersen, B. R.; Sprlak, M.; Lysaker, D. I.; Omang, O. C. D.; Sekowski, M.; Dykowski, P.</p> <p>2012-04-01</p> <p><span class="hlt">Absolute</span> gravimetry has been performed in 2011 by FG5 and A10 instruments in selected sites of the Norwegian first order gravity network. These observations are used as reference values to transform a large number of relative gravity values collected in 1968-1972. The outcome is a database at current epoch in a reference frame defined by the <span class="hlt">absolute</span> gravity values. This constitutes our test field for validation of GOCE results. In the test fields, validation of GOCE-derived gravity anomalies was performed. The spectral enhancement method was applied to avoid the spectral inconsistency between the terrestrial and the satellite data. For this purpose, contributions of the EGM2008 <span class="hlt">model</span> and a gravitational effect of a residual terrain <span class="hlt">model</span> were calculated.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2012AGUFMED11C0750H&link_type=ABSTRACT','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2012AGUFMED11C0750H&link_type=ABSTRACT"><span id="translatedtitle">Training Systems <span class="hlt">Modelers</span> through the Development of a Multi-scale Chagas Disease <span class="hlt">Risk</span> <span class="hlt">Model</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Hanley, J.; Stevens-Goodnight, S.; Kulkarni, S.; Bustamante, D.; Fytilis, N.; Goff, P.; Monroy, C.; Morrissey, L. A.; Orantes, L.; Stevens, L.; Dorn, P.; Lucero, D.; Rios, J.; Rizzo, D. M.</p> <p>2012-12-01</p> <p>The goal of our NSF-sponsored Division of Behavioral and Cognitive Sciences grant is to create a multidisciplinary approach to develop spatially explicit <span class="hlt">models</span> of vector-borne disease <span class="hlt">risk</span> using Chagas disease as our <span class="hlt">model</span>. Chagas disease is a parasitic disease endemic to Latin America that afflicts an estimated 10 million people. The causative agent (Trypanosoma cruzi) is most commonly transmitted to humans by blood feeding triatomine insect vectors. Our objectives are: (1) advance knowledge on the multiple interacting factors affecting the transmission of Chagas disease, and (2) provide next generation genomic and spatial analysis tools applicable to the study of other vector-borne diseases worldwide. This funding is a collaborative effort between the RSENR (UVM), the School of Engineering (UVM), the Department of Biology (UVM), the Department of Biological Sciences (Loyola (New Orleans)) and the Laboratory of Applied Entomology and Parasitology (Universidad de San Carlos). Throughout this five-year study, multi-educational groups (i.e., high school, undergraduate, graduate, and postdoctoral) will be trained in systems <span class="hlt">modeling</span>. This systems approach challenges students to incorporate environmental, social, and economic as well as technical aspects and enables <span class="hlt">modelers</span> to simulate and visualize topics that would either be too expensive, complex or difficult to study directly (Yasar and Landau 2003). We launch this research by developing a set of multi-scale, epidemiological <span class="hlt">models</span> of Chagas disease <span class="hlt">risk</span> using STELLA® software v.9.1.3 (isee systems, inc., Lebanon, NH). We use this particular system dynamics software as a starting point because of its simple graphical user interface (e.g., behavior-over-time graphs, stock/flow diagrams, and causal loops). To date, high school and undergraduate students have created a set of multi-scale (i.e., homestead, village, and regional) disease <span class="hlt">models</span>. <span class="hlt">Modeling</span> the system at multiple spatial scales forces recognition that</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25373055','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25373055"><span id="translatedtitle">Adolescent mental health and academic functioning: empirical support for contrasting <span class="hlt">models</span> of <span class="hlt">risk</span> and vulnerability.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Lucier-Greer, Mallory; O'Neal, Catherine W; Arnold, A Laura; Mancini, Jay A; Wickrama, Kandauda K A S</p> <p>2014-11-01</p> <p>Adolescents in military families contend with normative stressors that are universal and exist across social contexts (minority status, family disruptions, and social isolation) as well as stressors reflective of their military life context (e.g., parental deployment, school transitions, and living outside the United States). This study utilizes a social ecological perspective and a stress process lens to examine the relationship between multiple <span class="hlt">risk</span> factors and relevant indicators of youth well-being, namely depressive symptoms and academic performance, as well as the mediating role of self-efficacy (N = 1,036). Three <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">models</span> were tested: an additive effects <span class="hlt">model</span> (each <span class="hlt">risk</span> factor uniquely influences outcomes), a full cumulative effects <span class="hlt">model</span> (the collection of <span class="hlt">risk</span> factors influences outcomes), a comparative <span class="hlt">model</span> (a cumulative effects <span class="hlt">model</span> exploring the differential effects of normative and military-related <span class="hlt">risks</span>). This design allowed for the simultaneous examination of multiple <span class="hlt">risk</span> factors and a comparison of alternative perspectives on measuring <span class="hlt">risk</span>. Each <span class="hlt">model</span> was predictive of depressive symptoms and academic performance through persistence; however, each <span class="hlt">model</span> provides unique findings about the relationship between <span class="hlt">risk</span> factors and youth outcomes. Discussion is provided pertinent to service providers and researchers on how <span class="hlt">risk</span> is conceptualized and suggestions for identifying at-<span class="hlt">risk</span> youth. PMID:25373055</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2016ufm..conf..509K&link_type=ABSTRACT','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2016ufm..conf..509K&link_type=ABSTRACT"><span id="translatedtitle">Universal Cosmic <span class="hlt">Absolute</span> and Modern Science</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kostro, Ludwik</p> <p></p> <p>The official Sciences, especially all natural sciences, respect in their researches the principle of methodic naturalism i.e. they consider all phenomena as entirely natural and therefore in their scientific explanations they do never adduce or cite supernatural entities and forces. The purpose of this paper is to show that Modern Science has its own self-existent, self-acting, and self-sufficient Natural All-in Being or Omni-Being i.e. the entire Nature as a Whole that justifies the scientific methodic naturalism. Since this Natural All-in Being is one and only It should be considered as the own scientifically justified Natural <span class="hlt">Absolute</span> of Science and should be called, in my opinion, the Universal Cosmic <span class="hlt">Absolute</span> of Modern Science. It will be also shown that the Universal Cosmic <span class="hlt">Absolute</span> is ontologically enormously stratified and is in its ultimate i.e. in its most fundamental stratum trans-reistic and trans-personal. It means that in its basic stratum. It is neither a Thing or a Person although It contains in Itself all things and persons with all other sentient and conscious individuals as well, On the turn of the 20th century the Science has begun to look for a theory of everything, for a final theory, for a master theory. In my opinion the natural Universal Cosmic <span class="hlt">Absolute</span> will constitute in such a theory the radical all penetrating Ultimate Basic Reality and will substitute step by step the traditional supernatural personal <span class="hlt">Absolute</span>.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.6145Y','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.6145Y"><span id="translatedtitle">Space Weather Influence on Power Systems: Prediction, <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Analysis, and <span class="hlt">Modeling</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Yatsenko, Vitaliy</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>This report concentrates on dynamic probabilistic <span class="hlt">risk</span> analysis of optical elements for complex characterization of damages using physical <span class="hlt">model</span> of solid state lasers and predictable level of ionizing radiation and space weather. The following main subjects will be covered by our report: (a) solid-state laser <span class="hlt">model</span>; (b) mathematical <span class="hlt">models</span> for dynamic probabilistic <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment; and (c) software for <span class="hlt">modeling</span> and prediction of ionizing radiation. A probabilistic <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment method for solid-state lasers is presented with consideration of some deterministic and stochastic factors. Probabilistic <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment is a comprehensive, structured, and logical analysis method aimed at identifying and assessing <span class="hlt">risks</span> in solid-state lasers for the purpose of cost-e®ectively improving their safety and performance. This method based on the Conditional Value-at-<span class="hlt">Risk</span> measure (CVaR) and the expected loss exceeding Value-at-<span class="hlt">Risk</span> (VaR). We propose to use a new dynamical-information approach for radiation damage <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment of laser elements by cosmic radiation. Our approach includes the following steps: laser <span class="hlt">modeling</span>, <span class="hlt">modeling</span> of ionizing radiation in°uences on laser elements, probabilistic <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment methods, and <span class="hlt">risk</span> minimization. For computer simulation of damage processes at microscopic and macroscopic levels the following methods are used: () statistical; (b) dynamical; (c) optimization; (d) acceleration <span class="hlt">modeling</span>, and (e) mathematical <span class="hlt">modeling</span> of laser functioning. Mathematical <span class="hlt">models</span> of space ionizing radiation in°uence on laser elements were developed for <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment in laser safety analysis. This is a so-called `black box' or `input-output' <span class="hlt">models</span>, which seeks only to reproduce the behaviour of the system's output in response to changes in its inputs. The <span class="hlt">model</span> inputs are radiation in°uences on laser systems and output parameters are dynamical characteristics of the solid laser. Algorithms and software for optimal structure and parameters of</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2874231','PMC'); return false;" href="http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2874231"><span id="translatedtitle">Systemic <span class="hlt">risk</span>: the dynamics of <span class="hlt">model</span> banking systems</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>May, Robert M.; Arinaminpathy, Nimalan</p> <p>2010-01-01</p> <p>The recent banking crises have made it clear that increasingly complex strategies for managing <span class="hlt">risk</span> in individual banks have not been matched by corresponding attention to overall systemic <span class="hlt">risks</span>. We explore some simple mathematical caricatures for ‘banking ecosystems’, with emphasis on the interplay between the characteristics of individual banks (capital reserves in relation to total assets, etc.) and the overall dynamical behaviour of the system. The results are discussed in relation to potential regulations aimed at reducing systemic <span class="hlt">risk</span>. PMID:19864264</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://eric.ed.gov/?q=five+AND+factor+AND+model+AND+personality&pg=5&id=EJ624403','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://eric.ed.gov/?q=five+AND+factor+AND+model+AND+personality&pg=5&id=EJ624403"><span id="translatedtitle">Adolescent <span class="hlt">Risk</span>-Taking and the Five-Factor <span class="hlt">Model</span> of Personality.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Gullone, Eleonora; Moore, Susan</p> <p>2000-01-01</p> <p>Investigates the links between adolescent <span class="hlt">risk</span>-taking and personality, as conceptualized using the Five-factor <span class="hlt">Model</span> of personality (N=459). Results reveal that <span class="hlt">risk</span> judgments, personality factors, age and sex were significant predictors of <span class="hlt">risk</span> behaviors; however, the personality factor of significance was found to differ depending upon the risk…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://eric.ed.gov/?q=ecological+AND+risks&id=EJ922187','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://eric.ed.gov/?q=ecological+AND+risks&id=EJ922187"><span id="translatedtitle">An Ecological <span class="hlt">Risk</span> <span class="hlt">Model</span> for Early Childhood Anxiety: The Importance of Early Child Symptoms and Temperament</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Mian, Nicholas D.; Wainwright, Laurel; Briggs-Gowan, Margaret J.; Carter, Alice S.</p> <p>2011-01-01</p> <p>Childhood anxiety is impairing and associated with later emotional disorders. Studying <span class="hlt">risk</span> factors for child anxiety may allow earlier identification of at-<span class="hlt">risk</span> children for prevention efforts. This study applied an ecological <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">model</span> to address how early childhood anxiety symptoms, child temperament, maternal anxiety and depression symptoms,…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://eric.ed.gov/?q=flooding&id=EJ1056782','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://eric.ed.gov/?q=flooding&id=EJ1056782"><span id="translatedtitle">Students' Mental <span class="hlt">Models</span> with Respect to Flood <span class="hlt">Risk</span> in the Netherlands</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Bosschaart, Adwin; Kuiper, Wilmad; van der Schee, Joop</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Until now various quantitative studies have shown that adults and students in the Netherlands have low flood <span class="hlt">risk</span> perceptions. In this study we interviewed fifty 15-year-old students in two different flood prone areas. In order to find out how they think and reason about the <span class="hlt">risk</span> of flooding, the mental <span class="hlt">model</span> approach was used. Flood <span class="hlt">risk</span> turned…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2015JSP...159..158B&link_type=ABSTRACT','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2015JSP...159..158B&link_type=ABSTRACT"><span id="translatedtitle">On the <span class="hlt">Absolute</span> Continuity of the Blackwell Measure</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Bárány, Balázs; Kolossváry, István</p> <p>2015-04-01</p> <p>In 1957, Blackwell expressed the entropy of hidden Markov chains using a measure which can be characterised as an invariant measure for an iterated function system with place-dependent weights. This measure, called the Blackwell measure, plays a central role in understanding the entropy rate and other important characteristics of fundamental <span class="hlt">models</span> in information theory. We show that for a suitable set of parameter values the Blackwell measure is <span class="hlt">absolutely</span> continuous for almost every parameter in the case of binary symmetric channels.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/20953581','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/20953581"><span id="translatedtitle">Uncertainty of Calculated <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Estimates for Secondary Malignancies After Radiotherapy</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Kry, Stephen F. . E-mail: sfkry@mdanderson.org; Followill, David; White, R. Allen; Stovall, Marilyn; Kuban, Deborah A.; Salehpour, Mohammad</p> <p>2007-07-15</p> <p>Purpose: The significance of <span class="hlt">risk</span> estimates for fatal secondary malignancies caused by out-of-field radiation exposure remains unresolved because the uncertainty in calculated <span class="hlt">risk</span> estimates has not been established. This work examines the uncertainty in <span class="hlt">absolute</span> <span class="hlt">risk</span> estimates and in the ratio of <span class="hlt">risk</span> estimates between different treatment modalities. Methods and Materials: Clinically reasonable out-of-field doses and calculated <span class="hlt">risk</span> estimates were taken from the literature for several prostate treatment modalities, including intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT), and were recalculated using the most recent <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">model</span>. The uncertainties in this <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">model</span> and uncertainties in the linearity of the dose-response <span class="hlt">model</span> were considered in generating 90% confidence intervals for the uncertainty in the <span class="hlt">absolute</span> <span class="hlt">risk</span> estimates and in the ratio of the <span class="hlt">risk</span> estimates. Results: The <span class="hlt">absolute</span> <span class="hlt">risk</span> estimates of fatal secondary malignancy were associated with very large uncertainties, which precluded distinctions between the <span class="hlt">risks</span> associated with the different treatment modalities considered. However, a much smaller confidence interval exists for the ratio of <span class="hlt">risk</span> estimates, and this ratio between different treatment modalities may be statistically significant when there is an effective dose equivalent difference of at least 50%. Such a difference may exist between clinically reasonable treatment options, including 6-MV IMRT versus 18-MV IMRT for prostate therapy. Conclusion: The ratio of the <span class="hlt">risk</span> between different treatment modalities may be significantly different. Consequently <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">models</span> and associated <span class="hlt">risk</span> estimates may be useful and meaningful for evaluating different treatment options. The calculated <span class="hlt">risk</span> of secondary malignancy should be considered in the selection of an optimal treatment plan.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26802355','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26802355"><span id="translatedtitle">Quantitative microbial <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment combined with hydrodynamic <span class="hlt">modelling</span> to estimate the public health <span class="hlt">risk</span> associated with bathing after rainfall events.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Eregno, Fasil Ejigu; Tryland, Ingun; Tjomsland, Torulv; Myrmel, Mette; Robertson, Lucy; Heistad, Arve</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>This study investigated the public health <span class="hlt">risk</span> from exposure to infectious microorganisms at Sandvika recreational beaches, Norway and dose-response relationships by combining hydrodynamic <span class="hlt">modelling</span> with Quantitative Microbial <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Assessment (QMRA). Meteorological and hydrological data were collected to produce a calibrated hydrodynamic <span class="hlt">model</span> using Escherichia coli as an indicator of faecal contamination. Based on average concentrations of reference pathogens (norovirus, Campylobacter, Salmonella, Giardia and Cryptosporidium) relative to E. coli in Norwegian sewage from previous studies, the hydrodynamic <span class="hlt">model</span> was used for simulating the concentrations of pathogens at the local beaches during and after a heavy rainfall event, using three different decay rates. The simulated concentrations were used as input for QMRA and the public health <span class="hlt">risk</span> was estimated as probability of infection from a single exposure of bathers during the three consecutive days after the rainfall event. The level of <span class="hlt">risk</span> on the first day after the rainfall event was acceptable for the bacterial and parasitic reference pathogens, but high for the viral reference pathogen at all beaches, and severe at Kalvøya-small and Kalvøya-big beaches, supporting the advice of avoiding swimming in the day(s) after heavy rainfall. The study demonstrates the potential of combining discharge-based hydrodynamic <span class="hlt">modelling</span> with QMRA in the context of bathing water as a tool to evaluate public health <span class="hlt">risk</span> and support beach management decisions. PMID:26802355</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AtmRe.123..384S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AtmRe.123..384S"><span id="translatedtitle">SVAT <span class="hlt">modelling</span> in support to flood <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment in Bulgaria</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Stoyanova, Julia S.; Georgiev, Christo G.</p> <p>2013-04-01</p> <p>This study explores the benefit that can be drawn from incorporating the diagnosis of initial soil moisture of the top vegetation/soil layer and its anomalies as parameters in support of operational weather forecasting. For that purpose, a 1D vertical numerical land surface scheme, referred to as Soil Vegetation Transfer <span class="hlt">Model</span> (‘SVAT_bg’) has been developed to simulate the soil-vegetation-atmosphere mass and energy transfer, accounting for local soil/climate features. The <span class="hlt">model</span> is run daily for estimating soil moisture content and on this basis, a biogeophysical index designating Soil Moisture Availability Index (SMAI) to vegetation land cover is derived. SMAI is introduced as a measure of the proportion between the energy and water balances and their anomalies at different weather/climate conditions through a 6-level threshold scheme of land surface moistening. To facilitate the use of SMAI as a diagnostic tool for operational forecasting purposes, it is generated on a daily basis and visualised by colour-coded maps, covering the main administrative regions of Bulgaria in combination with a numerical part, which indicates the required flood-producing rainfall quantities (specific for each region). In case of overmoistening conditions, the numerical part denotes the rainfall excess above the soil saturation moisture content. The utility of this approach is illustrated in two case studies of severe weather produced by deep convection and a rapid cyclogenesis developed at initial ‘dry’/‘wet’ soil moisture anomalies, respectively. The thermodynamic conditions and space-time structure of the rainfall are analysed by NWP output fields and satellite information. The study contributes to a better definition of the role of vegetation-soil moistening in flood <span class="hlt">risk</span> forecasting within strong synoptic scale forcing regimes. The utility of the results comes also from the recognition of soil moisture as a meteorological forcing factor, which may affect both severity</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li class="active"><span>24</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>25</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_24 --> <div id="page_25" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_24");'>24</a></li> <li class="active"><span>25</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="481"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16772072','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16772072"><span id="translatedtitle">Assessment of caries <span class="hlt">risk</span> in elderly patients using the Cariogram <span class="hlt">model</span>.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Alian, Anna Y; McNally, Mary E; Fure, Solveig; Birkhed, Dowen</p> <p>2006-06-01</p> <p>For several decades, Swedish researchers, clinicians and educators have recognized <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment as an important part of routine management of dental caries. Innovative caries <span class="hlt">risk</span> assessment <span class="hlt">models</span>, such as the Cariogram software program, have been developed to systematize the evaluation of various <span class="hlt">risk</span> factors for caries and to develop targeted prevention interventions based on caries <span class="hlt">risk</span>. The benefits derived from these <span class="hlt">models</span> in terms of improving the health of high-<span class="hlt">risk</span> groups such as older adults have not been well studied. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate the application of the Cariogram software in the management of dental care for 3 elderly patients. PMID:16772072</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1985GeCoA..49..835N','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1985GeCoA..49..835N"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Absolute</span> isotopic abundances of TI in meteorites</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Niederer, F. R.; Papanastassiou, D. A.; Wasserburg, G. J.</p> <p>1985-03-01</p> <p>The <span class="hlt">absolute</span> isotope abundance of Ti has been determined in Ca-Al-rich inclusions from the Allende and Leoville meteorites and in samples of whole meteorites. The <span class="hlt">absolute</span> Ti isotope abundances differ by a significant mass dependent isotope fractionation transformation from the previously reported abundances, which were normalized for fractionation using 46Ti/48Ti. Therefore, the <span class="hlt">absolute</span> compositions define distinct nucleosynthetic components from those previously identified or reflect the existence of significant mass dependent isotope fractionation in nature. The authors provide a general formalism for determining the possible isotope compositions of the exotic Ti from the measured composition, for different values of isotope fractionation in nature and for different mixing ratios of the exotic and normal components.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/371207','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/371207"><span id="translatedtitle">Molecular iodine <span class="hlt">absolute</span> frequencies. Final report</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Sansonetti, C.J.</p> <p>1990-06-25</p> <p>Fifty specified lines of {sup 127}I{sub 2} were studied by Doppler-free frequency modulation spectroscopy. For each line the classification of the molecular transition was determined, hyperfine components were identified, and one well-resolved component was selected for precise determination of its <span class="hlt">absolute</span> frequency. In 3 cases, a nearby alternate line was selected for measurement because no well-resolved component was found for the specified line. <span class="hlt">Absolute</span> frequency determinations were made with an estimated uncertainty of 1.1 MHz by locking a dye laser to the selected hyperfine component and measuring its wave number with a high-precision Fabry-Perot wavemeter. For each line results of the <span class="hlt">absolute</span> measurement, the line classification, and a Doppler-free spectrum are given.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/6063303','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/6063303"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Absolute</span> calibration in vivo measurement systems</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.osti.gov/scitech">SciTech Connect</a></p> <p>Kruchten, D.A.; Hickman, D.P.</p> <p>1991-02-01</p> <p>Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) is currently investigating a new method for obtaining <span class="hlt">absolute</span> calibration factors for radiation measurement systems used to measure internally deposited radionuclides in vivo. <span class="hlt">Absolute</span> calibration of in vivo measurement systems will eliminate the need to generate a series of human surrogate structures (i.e., phantoms) for calibrating in vivo measurement systems. The <span class="hlt">absolute</span> calibration of in vivo measurement systems utilizes magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to define physiological structure, size, and composition. The MRI image provides a digitized representation of the physiological structure, which allows for any mathematical distribution of radionuclides within the body. Using Monte Carlo transport codes, the emission spectrum from the body is predicted. The in vivo measurement equipment is calibrated using the Monte Carlo code and adjusting for the intrinsic properties of the detection system. The calibration factors are verified using measurements of existing phantoms and previously obtained measurements of human volunteers. 8 refs.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4257686','PMC'); return false;" href="http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4257686"><span id="translatedtitle">Cardiovascular Disease <span class="hlt">Risk</span> <span class="hlt">Models</span> and Longitudinal Changes in Cognition: A Systematic Review</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Harrison, Stephanie L.; Ding, Jie; Tang, Eugene Y. H.; Siervo, Mario; Robinson, Louise; Jagger, Carol; Stephan, Blossom C. M.</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>Background Cardiovascular disease and its <span class="hlt">risk</span> factors have consistently been associated with poor cognitive function and incident dementia. Whether cardiovascular disease prediction <span class="hlt">models</span>, developed to predict an individual's <span class="hlt">risk</span> of future cardiovascular disease or stroke, are also informative for predicting <span class="hlt">risk</span> of cognitive decline and dementia is not known. Objective The objective of this systematic review was to compare cohort studies examining the association between cardiovascular disease <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">models</span> and longitudinal changes in cognitive function or <span class="hlt">risk</span> of incident cognitive impairment or dementia. Materials and Methods Medline, PsychINFO, and Embase were searched from inception to March 28, 2014. From 3,413 records initially screened, 21 were included. Results The association between numerous different cardiovascular disease <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">models</span> and cognitive outcomes has been tested, including Framingham and non-Framingham <span class="hlt">risk</span> <span class="hlt">models</span>. Five studies examined dementia as an outcome; fourteen studies examined cognitive decline or incident cognitive impairment as an outcome; and two studies examined both dementia and cognitive changes as outcomes. In all studies, higher cardiovascular disease <span class="hlt">risk</span> scores were associated with cognitive changes or <span class="hlt">risk</span> of dementia. Only four studies reported <span class="hlt">model</span> prognostic performance indices, such as Area Under the Curve (AUC), for predicting incident dementia or cognitive impairment and these studies all examined non-Framingham <span class="hlt">Risk</span> <span class="hlt">models</span> (AUC range: 0.74 to 0.78). Conclusions Cardiovascular <span class="hlt">risk</span> prediction <span class="hlt">models</span> are associated with cognitive changes over time and <span class="hlt">risk</span> of dementia. Such <span class="hlt">models</span> are easily obtainable in clinical and research settings and may be useful for identifying individuals at high <span class="hlt">risk</span> of future cognitive decline and dementia. PMID:25478916</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20120012063','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20120012063"><span id="translatedtitle">Orion <span class="hlt">Absolute</span> Navigation System Progress and Challenge</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Holt, Greg N.; D'Souza, Christopher</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>The <span class="hlt">absolute</span> navigation design of NASA's Orion vehicle is described. It has undergone several iterations and modifications since its inception, and continues as a work-in-progress. This paper seeks to benchmark the current state of the design and some of the rationale and analysis behind it. There are specific challenges to address when preparing a timely and effective design for the Exploration Flight Test (EFT-1), while still looking ahead and providing software extensibility for future exploration missions. The primary onboard measurements in a Near-Earth or Mid-Earth environment consist of GPS pseudo-range and delta-range, but for future explorations missions the use of star-tracker and optical navigation sources need to be considered. Discussions are presented for state size and composition, processing techniques, and consider states. A presentation is given for the processing technique using the computationally stable and robust UDU formulation with an Agee-Turner Rank-One update. This allows for computational savings when dealing with many parameters which are <span class="hlt">modeled</span> as slowly varying Gauss-Markov processes. Preliminary analysis shows up to a 50% reduction in computation versus a more traditional formulation. Several state elements are discussed and evaluated, including position, velocity, attitude, clock bias/drift, and GPS measurement biases in addition to bias, scale factor, misalignment, and non-orthogonalities of the accelerometers and gyroscopes. Another consideration is the initialization of the EKF in various scenarios. Scenarios such as single-event upset, ground command, and cold start are discussed as are strategies for whole and partial state updates as well as covariance considerations. Strategies are given for dealing with latent measurements and high-rate propagation using multi-rate architecture. The details of the rate groups and the data ow between the elements is discussed and evaluated.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19940024091&hterms=beer+lambert&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D10%26Ntt%3Dbeer%2Blambert','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19940024091&hterms=beer+lambert&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D10%26Ntt%3Dbeer%2Blambert"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Absolute</span> determination of local tropospheric OH concentrations</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Armerding, Wolfgang; Comes, Franz-Josef</p> <p>1994-01-01</p> <p>Long path absorption (LPA) according to Lambert Beer's law is a method to determine <span class="hlt">absolute</span> concentrations of trace gases such as tropospheric OH. We have developed a LPA instrument which is based on a rapid tuning of the light source which is a frequency doubled dye laser. The laser is tuned across two or three OH absorption features around 308 nm with a scanning speed of 0.07 cm(exp -1)/microsecond and a repetition rate of 1.3 kHz. This high scanning speed greatly reduces the fluctuation of the light intensity caused by the atmosphere. To obtain the required high sensitivity the laser output power is additionally made constant and stabilized by an electro-optical modulator. The present sensitivity is of the order of a few times 10(exp 5) OH per cm(exp 3) for an acquisition time of a minute and an absorption path length of only 1200 meters so that a folding of the optical path in a multireflection cell was possible leading to a lateral dimension of the cell of a few meters. This allows local measurements to be made. Tropospheric measurements have been carried out in 1991 resulting in the determination of OH diurnal variation at specific days in late summer. Comparison with <span class="hlt">model</span> calculations have been made. Interferences are mainly due to SO2 absorption. The problem of OH self generation in the multireflection cell is of minor extent. This could be shown by using different experimental methods. The minimum-maximum signal to noise ratio is about 8 x 10(exp -4) for a single scan. Due to the small size of the absorption cell the realization of an open air laboratory is possible in which by use of an additional UV light source or by additional fluxes of trace gases the chemistry can be changed under controlled conditions allowing kinetic studies of tropospheric photochemistry to be made in open air.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2669627','PMC'); return false;" href="http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2669627"><span id="translatedtitle">What's the <span class="hlt">Risk</span>? A Simple Approach for Estimating Adjusted <span class="hlt">Risk</span> Measures from Nonlinear <span class="hlt">Models</span> Including Logistic Regression</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Kleinman, Lawrence C; Norton, Edward C</p> <p>2009-01-01</p> <p>Objective To develop and validate a general method (called regression <span class="hlt">risk</span> analysis) to estimate adjusted <span class="hlt">risk</span> measures from logistic and other nonlinear multiple regression <span class="hlt">models</span>. We show how to estimate standard errors for these estimates. These measures could supplant various approximations (e.g., adjusted odds ratio [AOR]) that may diverge, especially when outcomes are common. Study Design Regression <span class="hlt">risk</span> analysis estimates were compared with internal standards as well as with Mantel–Haenszel estimates, Poisson and log-binomial regressions, and a widely used (but flawed) equation to calculate adjusted <span class="hlt">risk</span> ratios (ARR) from AOR. Data Collection Data sets produced using Monte Carlo simulations. Principal Findings Regression <span class="hlt">risk</span> analysis accurately estimates ARR and differences directly from multiple regression <span class="hlt">models</span>, even when confounders are continuous, distributions are skewed, outcomes are common, and effect size is large. It is statistically sound and intuitive, and has properties favoring it over other methods in many cases. Conclusions Regression <span class="hlt">risk</span> analysis should be the new standard for presenting findings from multiple regression analysis of dichotomous outcomes for cross-sectional, cohort, and population-based case–control studies, particularly when outcomes are common or effect size is large. PMID:18793213</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26970966','PUBMED'); return false;" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26970966"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Risk</span> of second cancers in the era of modern radiation therapy: does the <span class="hlt">risk</span>/benefit analysis overcome theoretical <span class="hlt">models</span>?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Chargari, Cyrus; Goodman, Karyn A; Diallo, Ibrahima; Guy, Jean-Baptiste; Rancoule, Chloe; Cosset, Jean-Marc; Deutsch, Eric; Magne, Nicolas</p> <p>2016-06-01</p> <p>In the era of modern radiation therapy, the compromise between the reductions in deterministic radiation-induced toxicities through highly conformal devices may be impacting the stochastic <span class="hlt">risk</span> of second malignancies. We reviewed the clinical literature and evolving theoretical <span class="hlt">models</span> evaluating the impact of intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) on the <span class="hlt">risk</span> of second cancers, as a consequence of the increase in volumes of normal tissues receiving low doses. The <span class="hlt">risk</span> increase (if any) is not as high as theoretical <span class="hlt">models</span> have predicted in adults. Moreover, the increase in out-of-field radiation doses with IMRT could be counterbalanced by the decrease in volumes receiving high doses. Clinical studies with short follow-up have not corroborated the hypothesis that IMRT would drastically increase the incidence of second cancers. In children, the <span class="hlt">risk</span> of radiation-induced carcinogenesis increases from low doses and consequently the relative <span class="hlt">risk</span> of second cancers after IMRT could be higher than in adults, justifying current developments of proton therapy with priority given to this population. Although only longer follow-up will allow a true assessment of the real impact of these modern techniques on radiation-induced carcinogenesis, a comprehensive <span class="hlt">risk</span>-adapted strategy will help minimize the probability of second cancers. PMID:26970966</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://eric.ed.gov/?q=waste+AND+management+AND+model&pg=3&id=EJ520729','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://eric.ed.gov/?q=waste+AND+management+AND+model&pg=3&id=EJ520729"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Risk</span> Management in Australian Science Education: A <span class="hlt">Model</span> for Practice.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a></p> <p>Forlin, Peter</p> <p>1995-01-01</p> <p>Provides a framework that incorporates the diverse elements of <span class="hlt">risk</span> management in science education into a systematic process and is adaptable to changing circumstances. Appendix contains <span class="hlt">risk</span> management checklist for management, laboratory and storage, extreme biological and chemical hazards, protective equipment, waste disposal, electrical…</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=131363&keyword=determinants+AND+disease+AND+adults+AND+older&actType=&TIMSType=+&TIMSSubTypeID=&DEID=&epaNumber=&ntisID=&archiveStatus=Both&ombCat=Any&dateBeginCreated=&dateEndCreated=&dateBeginPublishedPresented=&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&dateBeginCompleted=&dateEndCompleted=&personID=&role=Any&journalID=&publisherID=&sortBy=revisionDate&count=50&CFID=65262640&CFTOKEN=21494207','EPA-EIMS'); return false;" href="http://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=131363&keyword=determinants+AND+disease+AND+adults+AND+older&actType=&TIMSType=+&TIMSSubTypeID=&DEID=&epaNumber=&ntisID=&archiveStatus=Both&ombCat=Any&dateBeginCreated=&dateEndCreated=&dateBeginPublishedPresented=&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&dateBeginCompleted=&dateEndCompleted=&personID=&role=Any&journalID=&publisherID=&sortBy=revisionDate&count=50&CFID=65262640&CFTOKEN=21494207"><span id="translatedtitle">EVALUATING <span class="hlt">RISK</span> IN OLDER ADULTS USING PHYSIOLOGICALLY BASED PHARMACOKINETIC <span class="hlt">MODELS</span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://oaspub.epa.gov/eims/query.page">EPA Science Inventory</a></p> <p></p> <p></p> <p>The rapid growth in the number of older Americans has many implications for public health, including the need to better understand the <span class="hlt">risks</span> posed by environmental exposures to older adults. An important element for evaluating <span class="hlt">risk</span> is the understanding of the doses of environment...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AIPC.1367...29A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AIPC.1367...29A"><span id="translatedtitle">Precise Measurement of the <span class="hlt">Absolute</span> Fluorescence Yield</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Ave, M.; Bohacova, M.; Daumiller, K.; Di Carlo, P.; di Giulio, C.; San Luis, P. Facal; Gonzales, D.; Hojvat, C.; Hörandel, J. R.; Hrabovsky, M.; Iarlori, M.; Keilhauer, B.; Klages, H.; Kleifges, M.; Kuehn, F.; Monasor, M.; Nozka, L.; Palatka, M.; Petrera, S.; Privitera, P.; Ridky, J.; Rizi, V.; D'Orfeuil, B. Rouille; Salamida, F.; Schovanek, P.; Smida, R.; Spinka, H.; Ulrich, A.; Verzi, V.; Williams, C.</p> <p>2011-09-01</p> <p>We present preliminary results of the <span class="hlt">absolute</span> yield of fluorescence emission in atmospheric gases. Measurements were performed at the Fermilab Test Beam Facility with a variety of beam particles and gases. <span class="hlt">Absolute</span> calibration of the fluorescence yield to 5% level was achieved by comparison with two known light sources--the Cherenkov light emitted by the beam particles, and a calibrated nitrogen laser. The uncertainty of the energy scale of current Ultra-High Energy Cosmic Rays experiments will be significantly improved by the AIRFLY measurement.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2012EGUGA..14.3080M&link_type=ABSTRACT','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2012EGUGA..14.3080M&link_type=ABSTRACT"><span id="translatedtitle"><span class="hlt">Absolute</span> GNSS Antenna Calibration at the National Geodetic Survey</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Mader, G.; Bilich, A.; Geoghegan, C.</p> <p>2012-04-01</p> <p>Geodetic GNSS applications routinely demand millimeter precision and extremely high levels of accuracy. To achieve these accuracies, measurement and instrument biases at the centimeter to millimeter level must be understood. One of these biases is the antenna phase center, the apparent point of signal reception for a GNSS antenna. It has been well established that phase center patterns differ between antenna <span class="hlt">models</span> and manufacturers; additional research suggests that the addition of a radome or the choice of antenna mount can significantly alter those a priori phase center patterns. For the more demanding GNSS positioning applications and especially in cases of mixed-antenna networks, it is all the more important to know antenna phase center variations as a function of both elevation and azimuth in the antenna reference frame and incorporate these <span class="hlt">models</span> into analysis software. To help meet the needs of the high-precision GNSS community, the National Geodetic Survey (NGS) now operates an <span class="hlt">absolute</span> antenna calibration facility. Located in Corbin, Virginia, this facility uses field measurements and actual GNSS satellite signals to quantitatively determine the carrier phase advance/delay introduced by the antenna element. The NGS facility was built to serve traditional NGS constituents such as the surveying and geodesy communities, however calibration services are open and available to all GNSS users as the calibration schedule permits. All phase center patterns computed by this facility will be publicly available and disseminated in both the ANTEX and NGS formats. We describe the NGS calibration facility, and discuss the observation <span class="hlt">models</span> and strategy currently used to generate NGS <span class="hlt">absolute</span> calibrations. We demonstrate that NGS <span class="hlt">absolute</span> phase center variation (PCV) patterns are consistent with published values determined by other <span class="hlt">absolute</span> antenna calibration facilities, and outline future planned refinements to the system.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2016EGUGA..1814300H&link_type=ABSTRACT','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2016EGUGA..1814300H&link_type=ABSTRACT"><span id="translatedtitle">Using an extended 2D hydrodynamic <span class="hlt">model</span> for evaluating damage <span class="hlt">risk</span> caused by extreme rain events: Flash-Flood-<span class="hlt">Risk</span>-Map (FFRM) Upper Austria</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Humer, Günter; Reithofer, Andreas</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p> at 20th of June 2012, based on open data sources of geology, soil and land use. The aim o